Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:02 - ID#43352)
Another night.
Off to bed. To count golden sheep.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:02 - ID#25257)
What does JoPa and the Lions have cooking for the Buckeyes? That Joe Germaine's a pretty good little Qback.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:06 - ID#238422)
Squirrel, your plan for Bart is nice, but...
here is the piece of the Soviet humor:

Secretary of the local branch of the Communist
party speaks to his people:

"Tomorrow we are going to have mass execution,
all of you will be executed, by hanging..."

One of the crowd, old rank-n-file member
of the party, asks:

"Please tell us, comrade secretary,
should we bring rope with us?"...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:09 - ID#280214)
Some of my 23:45 suggestions to BART on how to speed up Kitco
May not be possible for WebTV users who can't download stuff to disk and copy/paste like the rest of us. Does anyone have experience with WebTV? Are there any of us using it for Kitco browsing?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:10 - ID#288231)


each option gives you the right, but not the obligation
to purchase a futures contract at the strike price.
gold is 100oz contracts, and i'm sure you have to use
a broker to purchase sure as we are
going to have the worst winter on record.....florida
freeze kills oj.trees......and sure enough that war
is immininent ANY DAY in the middle east, that crude
calls are piling almost as high as the golden ones...... can play with the big can touch
them, but they cannot touch you....the premium and the
brokers fee is the ONLY liability incurred....

80+% of options expire worthless.....but they're just good
company!; ) .....

consider the run-up in crude in the gulf war....42+bbl the
17bbl area....1 option would have paid for your mortgage and
another condo in santa fe....

look at the see the future....we are constantly
at war throughout history....except recent history.......
relative peace so to speak..the wheel turns in-exorably
you can turn with it.......or step aside and watch it turn...


(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:12 - ID#45173)
Whoah! Looks liked I got everything working. Must have been the Pete's Wicked that did it. I've been trying for months ( ten minutes at a time ) to get the scanner working. Now you're in for it. Lots of graphics!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:15 - ID#280214)
Oris - unlike hanging, we can live with my suggested changes
I am not proposing censorship - just that we let others have a little bandwidth that we all have to share. Either we restrain ourselves or this Kitco forum becomes next to useless during prime time. Some of us have essentially given up trying to either view posts or make posts during M-F days. I may drop in a few times during the day to check the charts but the charts but it is truly unusual to gain access to the server to read the posts. Thus I catch up on my Kitco reading at night - as in now.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:16 - ID#288231)

it has the exact opposite reaction on me......

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:20 - ID#288231)

toilet paper...

us$...looking very grim....technically speaking...
look out below.

eb...where you be?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:22 - ID#215235)
JoePa and the Nittany Lions will put up a brave fight against the Buckeyes tomorrow. OSU is stacked with upper classman. PSU is a talented but young team. The game is in Columbus. I expect PSU to play well and with a little luck win by a hair. Sorta like gold just crossing the $300 level. Cheer for the team with no name jerseys, black sneakers, and white helmets. Like JoePa, they are not pretty but they are indominable!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:27 - ID#288231)

the rich and famous.....

and the nwo.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:29 - ID#288231)

canada to be split and absorbed by...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:36 - ID#215235)
Good luck tomorrow. It will be a helluva game. The Lions and Buckeyes bring out the best in each other. Two great teams with great legacies. I am excited and will watch every play. Go NITTANY LIONS! To bad their jerseys don't have a little gold on 'em.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:36 - ID#238422)
I think two of your ideas are very, very good, and if Bart
agrees to use those ideas, it will help a lot:

1. Limit the length of the post, some posts are so long,
it makes no sense to read them.

2. Increase number of intervals, like you said,
may be 2 hour intervals at pick time...

Other ideas are also interesting, except
"cut-n-paste" idea, which is not good, at least for me.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:37 - ID#45173)
New $20 bill
Not what Jackson had in mind?

Highrise has unleashed a monster!


(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:37 - ID#288231)

gun control and the nwo.....

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:39 - ID#167133)
Cherokee! You said you were going to see the 5th Dimension; I have them here!

( Big intro heavy on the horns...... )

Dah-da-da-da dah da da dah
Dah-da-da-da dah da da dah

Up Up and away
with my beautiful Doubloons
Wouldn't you like to ride
with my beautiful Doubloons?

And we can soar above the marketplace
you and I
for we can buy!

Dont you have you eye
on my beautiful Doubloons?
Wouldn't you like to buy
into my beautiful Doubloons?

And we can chase the precious metals index
to the sky
for we can buy!

Up Up and away with my beautiful
my beautiful

( fade )
Up Up and away
Up Up and away
Up Up and away

Hey, with a bunch of heavy-hitters like the 5D on your side, you know you can't go wrong!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:43 - ID#401460)
I will probably transfer some more money to the fund Monday.
Van Eck Hard Assets

They are very bad about letting people know what their current allocations are. Information is always several months old.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:46 - ID#401460)
EJ (New $20 bill)



(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:47 - ID#183109)
GEORGE @ 18:55 ...confused about RANDGOLD?

May I politely suggest you do a bit of reading before further posting on RANDGOLD? It will become very obvious to you once you do so that your post of 18:55 MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE WHATSOEVER.

I think you may perhaps be infected with the VANCOUVER PENNY STOCK VIRUS. You should seek medical attention immediately as this can be fatal to your portfolio : )

Heres a link to aid in your speedy recovery. Here youll have access to over 800 articles pertaining to or mentioning RANDGOLD. Best of Luck.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:48 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:12PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Interesting but scary thought...from above article.. "The nation that got
Bill Clinton's baby-boomer presidency as the inevitable legacy of the
Vietnam War would get Hillary Rodham as the legacy of Monica Lewinsky."

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:12PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
The Klintons will survive because:1 ) The people who control the money and the
media are the same people who control the Klintons. 2 ) The Klintons are so
much meaner than their opponents that they cant be touched. Ehis aint
hearsay. Dick Morris was THERE!site link

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:13PM CST ( -0600
and Michael Galster was THERE!site link

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:24PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman so does Hillary pardon Bill???

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:24PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Its ironic that many of our Canadian chatters are quick to rise to the
defense of our illustrious President. Wonder how they'll feel when the whole
truth is known about how he sent tainted blood to them when he ran that
little banana republic down in Dixie?

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:26PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dgoto: Nawl. Pruden's got the result right, but he's wrong on the process.
Bill will serve out his term and Hillary will be elected in her own right to
succeed him.

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:28PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Just think if it came down to Hillary Clinton against Elizabeth Dole in the

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:29PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Who would the women of America vote for. I guess who ever had a better
looking VP .

dougie . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:34PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
of course, it's starting to look like we might have a bit of a problem with
PM Cretin up here too. Have you seen the outcry rising over him allegedly
instigating the pepper spraying of the students protesting Suharto at Apec ?
Big constitutional issue growing over it. Using police for political
reasons. Students were completely within their rights and were physically
mistreated by the police because Suharto said he wouldn't come if it meant
he'd be embarassed . Of course, he did suffer a little embarassment later at
home anyway.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:38PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dougie: I have no prejudice. He is the greatest political genius ever to
grace our shores. He has made dumb rich people at least twice as rich as
they were when he assumed office, and smart rich people richer by an order
of magnitude, while workers' real wages have declined. Yet the "little guy"
is utterly convinced that Slick "feels his pain." I've made more in the 5
Klinton years without leaving the house than I made in 20+ years of building
and running a business. They ARE GOOD!! They are THE BEST at what they do.

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:43PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman did you see the video Primary Colors???

rmitchel . . Fri, Oct 2, 7:49PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman...Can the rising bond market be due to LTCM unwinding it's positions
( also include other unnamed hedge funds ) , and not be a cause for the health
of the country??

twocents . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:03PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman, starr was there to provide both a window of opportunity AND some
time to get certain things done. once they are done, very soon, bill is
going to retire in a most dignified manner.

dougie . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:06PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman.. I was kidding.. I agree with you and enjoy hearing it said in no
uncertain terms.. Klinton is the BEST at Klinging on. wasn't it Gore Vidal
said "the president is a puppet of big business" B.B. IS the dumb rich and
smart rich combined. They support him and he must serve them. Getting more
true all the time. If slick had more than three facial expressions, he could
graduate to a good acting career when all this ends. I have been telling
friends for about 20 years now that the biggest problem with politics is
that the number one job of any politician is to get re-elected, so what do
you expect to get. How he can have the majority's standard of living
dropping so much, and still get their vote is an amazing feat. I'm still
waiting for your "he ain't leavin' unless it's at gunpoint" call to come
true. so far, nothing seems to stick.

sciecon . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:25PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
2c: Now THAT is something which sounds truly reasonable ( about Clinton and
his backers ) . That theory contradicts no known phenomena of which I am
aware, and explains many.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:45PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
been out for a while. Missed mr stupit. Dunno what the bondo is doing. Gotta
assume someone knows sumpin i dont kno, couse I dont want to tie a lot of $$
up in 30yr ppaper at less than 5%. This reversal came at the wrong place on
the chart for me. I'm long, but not for long i aint.: ) We're goin lower
after this rally is over. No later than Wednesday, and maybe as early as
Monday. Monday will trade above todays close, but may be only a gap up and
flop. I will be flat before 1050 and looking for a sell thereabouts.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:47PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
In my last, everything after"5%" applies to SPOOS.

babber . . Fri, Oct 2, 8:52PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
ole; you think she could get up that far ( 1050 ) before failure?

mountain4 . . Fri, Oct 2, 9:36PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Clinton begging for IMF money today must mean somebody needs it awfully

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:14PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hanobi: Its 11:11p.m. on Friday nite here. If you think we're all "just
coexisting" there's a street in Daytona Beach that I'd like to see you walk
a few blocks on right about now.: )

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:18PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I guess you could visit Coral Gables and try to survive..even in the day

hanobi . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:18PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman: i would be scared i am sure.....i find that i am more scared of the
violence here than in the strangest/poorest of lands...

dgoto . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:22PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Last time I visited south Florida maybe 1994 in the winter, I saw so many
panhandlers and street people it almost reminded me of S.E. Asia.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:29PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
baart: You may have forgotten who has the checkbook. His name is Bobby
Rubin. He has a real soft spot in his heart for poor unfortunates like J.
merriwether, et. al.: )

baart . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:32PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
today absolutely awakened me, we are in serious trouble, this market and
economy is in serious trouble more than just a correction about to happen.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:39PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Welp, I'm long, but not for long. Should be short shortly. Gonna let
somebody elses money take her thru those MA's looming above us here.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
thermo. I dont work the ID charts as hard as I used to. rarely spend more
than 4 hrs at the monitor any day. I' rarely take a "scalp" type trade
anymore. Using only the signals that I expect will give me a new swing
high/low. Usually close half the position at the swing high/low and hold the
other half till i see whats what. Bought a couple minutes before 3 today,
sold half at 14--the s/h, and am holding half.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:52PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
i sold the break of the open this morning, covered before noon and didnt
come back til 2 pm. sold 1005 last nite and watched it go 20 handles in my
favor then almost all the way back before i got out. made a couple when i
shoulda made 20. Have no doubt i wouldnta screwed that up so bad if I hadnt
posted the entry here. That's one reason why I dont like to chat and trade.
Gets ego and emotion into it,. No good.

oleman . . Fri, Oct 2, 10:54PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
thermo: I ALWAYS take partial profits after 10 handles on a day trade.
EXCEPT for the times when I dont.: )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:53 - ID#41338)
To all who are annoyed by the delalys experienced at Kitco.
We must remember that our good friend Bart is providing this service free of charge ( for now at least ) . If we were all paying customers, I would then think we might have something to complain about. When I surf this sight after hours ( after 4:00 PM EST ) I have no problems accessing Kitco. I know some of you are Pro traders who need access to the most vital of information during market hours, but then maybe you should be paying for the abililty to access this information in a more timely manner ( more so the lurkers than the valuable posters )
I personally think this is a great sight despite its delays. Bart has done much lately to respond to the problems we are experiencing by providing a backup site and searching for a new provider ( or what ever you call it ) Let's let time take its course.
Perhaps Glenn's $1000 pledge will go a long ways towards helping Bart pay for the enhancements we would all like to see.


Fisty Rolly

(Sat Oct 03 1998 00:54 - ID#293184)
I downloaded RANGY into my TA software ( TC2000 ) recently, to see what all
the fuss is about. It shows distribution, negative money flow, negative
'balance of power', and negative TSV ( Time Segmented Volume ) . All other gold and as recently, the silver stocks show positive readings of the above 'money stream' indicators. IMHO, dump RANGY.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:01 - ID#45173)
You get what you pay for
If everyone regularly lurking, posting, or otherwise consuming bandwidth, drives access, and CPU cycles buys two Mounties ( a fine, high-margin item ) then maybe Bart can afford a new server. Perhaps Bart can proffer a biz case to his mgt and then tell us how many Mounties we need to buy total to make the nut?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:13 - ID#41338)
EJ, Good Idea!!! I think I know what I'll be getting my wife for her X-mas stocking.
Regards Rolly

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:14 - ID#401460)

I have been off fooling around with your AG.
I pasted it into PageMaker and enlarged it.

And I thought I had a head ache!

He looks beat up for sure.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:19 - ID#401460)
messy79 (RANGY)

Just Great! Polar Bear tells me to go out and buy 1000 shares and you say to dump it.

Well I will have to wait till Monday now, where were you this morning.

You and PolarBear would have had some fun.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:20 - ID#35757)
Slow Server
I have become a Kitco addict. I am here quite a bit. At times this dicussion group is very slow to acquire, and sometimes impossible. It seems to me however, that at these times many other sites have problems as well, or perhaps its my ISP. Maybe we shouldnt be so quick to blame Barts server.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:23 - ID#35757)
Not that there not improvements that can be made. Somehow preventing multiple posts of long messages. I assume that this happens by mistake.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:29 - ID#45173)
AG blew it and he knows it. He was on the right track with his warnings about irrational exuberance two years ago but backed off. They told him he wsa too smart to let things get out of hand. "Yes, Alan," they told him, "you really are smart enough to second guess the markets." Like any celebrity he fell for it.

Party's over. Save the picture, it's historical.

Thanks for your encouragement.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:37 - ID#335379)
Hello Cherokee: Could you share some oil stocks to buy for the upcoming run up?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:38 - ID#284255)
I would expect that the fear will be as bad as the reality.

But it's up to the way that the sheeple react that will dictate the way this beast will move.

It's a perplexing thought?
Will they stampede?

I don't know much about the coin side.
You'd be better off asking Nick@Canbera

I think he likes buying those shiny round things ( :- ) ) )


John Disney
(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:44 - ID#24135)
Lets talk a little rangy..
Comments ..

To polarbear ..
Your buddy told you ...

" A buddy at S.I. provided me with this: regular
options are exercisable through 12/31/99 at 3 cents
per common share subject to price adjustment at
the discretion of the company. The 'B' options are
exercisable through 6/30/2002 at 6 cents per
common share. "

All I can say is that you have one thoroughly
screwed up buddy ... the regulars striking price
is 30 RANDS ( NOT 3 cents ) per share ..
and the B options strike at 60 Rands per share ( NOT
6 cents ) .. suggest you go back to drawing board
with any conclusions you may have drawn from this
misinfornmation .. and do something for this buddy
of yours .. ( send him to night school maybe ?? )
The options trade at 3.5 rands now .. I have
maybe 25000 left which I got at 0.5 rand cost ..
the B's trade at less than 2 rand .. I had a lot
once .. sold them long ago .. lost dough.

To messy 79 ..
you provided your analysis of rangy using you
whachacallit software ... suggest you upgrade to
better software ..

then someone quoted an summary on Rangy and
asked what it meant ... It didnt mean anything.
then someone else said something about selling
rangy at 60 cents and buying it at 2 cents .. wow
.... suggest scrub that completely

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:54 - ID#401460)
John Disney (Lets talk a little rangy..)

So would you buy or sell?


(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:56 - ID#333126)
my humble opinion regarding kitco slowness (shamelsss plug for free software) is running Micro$oft crappy IIS as a webserver

go install Apache, Bart!! ( )

might take some fumbling to port the stuff over but I think it's worth it!

Might work even better with Windows removed altogether - go run Linux or something ;- )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 01:56 - ID#255284)
When you do your data mining for the sportsfans, do you calculate reserves per share etc ( & all that other archane alchemy!! ) on only the issued capital or do you also look at the effect of option conversion too? I was wondering, after Polarbears post whether they were management options, but I guess they were given pro rata to share holders?

I did not realise Polarbear's exercise price was so awry.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:00 - ID#237299)
Cherokee, still up? : You said something earlier about
ju99 390 calls at 130, did you mean 360? when I just looked it up
I thought it was $50 for the 390s

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:06 - ID#401460)

" is running Micro$oft crappy IIS as a webserver "

Microsoft, well that would explain it. Kitco is caught up in the Microsoft control mess. Microsoft intentionaly creates problems for non Microsoft Software and Hardware. This would eventually screw up every one on a busy day.

I will not access MSNBC for that reason.


Lan Man
(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:07 - ID#320108)
@Whats a 89 year old $5 gold piece worth?
Check out the face on this dude! Wallpaper this guy. Details:

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:11 - ID#183109)
DISNEY @ Options
Thanks John, this makes much more sense. Looks like they'll be exercised shortly. Did the number of options look right? Sounds like using 60 Million shares in my spreadsheet would be about right.

HIGHRISE--a thousand shares? You'll be on the board of directors soon.

Messy79, I'll be sure to liquidate my entire position at Market Monday morning. Is T.A. the only window in your house? Will your T.A. software tell you to buy with the crowd when we are approaching 2 bucks?
Not to poo poo T.A., but IMHO it's not the tell all, only one tool in the toolbox. I'd be interested to hear what your T.A. was saying last December when Rangy was at 3/4, and then shot up over $2 in a very short time period.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:13 - ID#401460)

I tried to acess a medical site one night and the place started acting weird, right awy I could tell it was microsoft trying to get me to use their browser rather than Netscape.

I e-mailed the medical agency, telling them that i was not right to present those kind of obsticals when they were trying to provide needed information to people.

If it is Wintel or Microsoft it is usually junk and a problem. They ship their product with all kind of bugs in it just to meet an abitrary dealine.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:18 - ID#401460)

I have a lot more than a thousand. Board of Directors, hum......who do I call, or do, I wait for them to call me.

Come on Guys - BUY, SELL, or HOLD ?


(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:35 - ID#333126)
highrise - another microsoft disliker ( I refrain from using the h word ) :- )

Bart, when's Apache gonna replace IIS? ( check out the graphs in ... do you want to use the webserver that's in the majority *AND* is supported by IBM or use the nonsense that Micro$loth passes out? )

regarding those gold shares, highrise, I'm no expert on those particular stocks, but I suggest "accumulate" ( pick your own prices ) :- )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:42 - ID#429121)
A good product sells itself.

Thanks Bart for a wonderful site. Folks like coming here to watch "the action"... But sometimes its like going to the movie theater and having to sit through a few of the zzzz repeated advertisements while waiting for the feature ... Don't mind it sometimes but occasionally it gets OLD.... Oh well...

Definitions from the Webster's New World Dictionary, Third College Edition:

Sales-man noun. 1. a man employed as a salesclerk

Sales-man-ship noun. the ability, skill, or technique of selling

Personal Observation: Skills and techniques of salesmanship and that of

salesmen may vary but the end results are the same - to make money from

customers for the enrichment of the company and the salesman. In some

cases, salesman techniques may include:

* Inflating the "track record" of ones self/company and constantly

bragging about the false claims.

* Constantly harping ( via any free media opportunity available ) about

how "great" one's business is doing.

* Habitually trying to prove with numbers, testimonials,

smoke/mirrors, and every other means possible so as to prove how great the

"product" and/or company is.

* Employing personal charm and confidence games/techniques to win the

trust of potential customers/victims.

* Baiting and switching of products.

* Stretching the legal limit of unscrupulous sales techniques ( i.e.,

making verbal guarantees versus written ones ) .

* Out and out lying ( verbally, of course, to avoid legal action in the

courts. )

* Misrepresenting and twisting of company literature ( again,

verbally ) .

* Minimizing inherent dangers with risky endeavors.

* Enlisting paid or soliciting "happy/satisfied" customers to help

drum up business ( testimonials ) .

* Inflating the actual amount of expertise resident within the


* Invoking the "greed factor" amongst potential customer/victims.

* Stretching the "truth" as to potential benefit ( such as

profitability ) of a product.

* Sending out "free subscriptions" of slick, glossy, industry-boasting


* Constantly barraging a potential client with high pressure phone

calls attempting to sell the product.

Good sales techniques do not include pointing out problems with the company or drawbacks to certain products which the salesmen is paid to peddle.

* Minimizing the impact of dissatisfied customers.

* Discrediting those vocal customers who have received less than what

was verbally guaranteed by the salesclerk ( i.e., labeling them as

"incoherent", "angry", or having a "sour grapes" attitude. )

* Discrediting ( or "flaming" ) those who disagree with the salesclerk

or his company's policies.

Company's sales policies and techniques do not reflect what is best for a

potential customer. There is no specific written screening criteria used by salesmen, only direction by the company to get as much money out of

customers as possible. Money so that the company can make a profit, pay its shareholders, pay its bloated overhead costs, get the salesmen their

commissions, and all the other basic business principles. Oh, and by the

way, a salesman's job depends on how much "product" he/she sales.

Liars figure, figures lie, and salesmen will sell the lies AND figures. Go figure. Braggadocio of one's self proclaimed successful track record, and of his/her company's outstanding reputation ( on a customer rich forum no less ) makes one a blatant, unabashed SALES-MAN. At the same time, anyone who claims to be an expert simply by parroting industry propaganda & the company script in order to hawk a product, is a lying, unscrupulous, hypocrite. A self defined prostitute salesclerk I once knew boasted that he didn't care what a particular industry market did as long as he could make money at it. I've heard that lately that whore is doing pretty good.

To a novice, a salesman may appear to be an expert. Like a certified

financial advisor who sells certain front-loaded mutual funds. He may

rattle off the complicated sounding lingo about basic fund types, etc. and to the neophyte it will sound like this guy knows what he's talking about. But that "advisor" is really a salesman who gets a commission/kickback from each and every share sale.

Having insider information in any given field may contribute to the overall knowledge base but it does not an make one an expert. "Expertise" is not defined by simply repeating insider information garnered from marketing cruises, published industry predictions, and regurgitating company assembled pamphlets.

I may not always be able to identify a good expert in any particular field but I am learning. I have, however, learned how to recognize self serving, braggadocios, self promoting, greedy salesmen.

Examples of some famous "salesmanship" lines:

"We're from the IRS and we're here to help"

"We have implemented a pacification program in Vietnam."

"We are here to free the people of Kuwait."

"I did not have sex with that woman, Monica Lewinsky."

"Stick with me on this and we'll all make lots of money. I guarantee it."

... etc....

DISCLAIMER: This is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to advocate or dissuade anyone from dealing with any particular individual or company. Let the buyer beware.

Go silver ( down! )

Go platinum ( WAY down!! )

Go gold ( Hmmmmm... ? )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:46 - ID#293184)
I checked money flow, balance of power, etc it was positive nov and dec
but as RANGY went up in Jan, it turned negative and has stayed negative, except it was positive in apr and may only.
On the other hand money flow was positive since june for HGMCY, PDG,GSR,
HM and others.
I just read this AM's kitco. I see that ACW posted the same info that I did ( using TC2000 ) re negative 'balance of power' for RANGY. ( post at 08:05 )
But this is not the 'holy grail' and it may change for the better. I just reported what I saw and was able to buy in early on other gold stocks because it is an early indicator. Have been using since 1991.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 02:51 - ID#333126)
man, the guys who run central banks nowadays
read this bit taken from this article in a Malaysian newspaper:

On the question of statutory reserve requirements ( SRR ) for financial institutions, Ali pointed out that many countries had zero SRR which was essentially "money kept at the central bank doing nothing and represents part of conservative banking practices."

the full article is at

my goodness... *this* is the caliber of dope who replaces whoever was the previous central bank governor in Malaysia ( who can't have been *this* stupid or he would not have resigned when Mahatdir wanted to introduce the new rulings )

may the fleas from a thousand camels crawl over his rotting carcass after this financial debacle is over.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:05 - ID#284255)
FEMA and Y2k - is it real?
Response And Recovery Directorate
Federal Emergency Management Agency before the Special Committee On The Y2K Technology Problem

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:31 - ID#39857)
hi sharefin

re gas drama in Jeffs county and failure of manufacturing due to
justin time ...son of old father time.... SABOTAGE by power hungry
faction of Liberal Party.... you got it... Peacock Kroger Elliot Kennet
Walker Carnegie LLoyd-Williams.. hmmmmmmm all still think
British mining companies own Australia.............
sabotage is getting a little media. what do you think....
get gold and water jacket for your stove

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:43 - ID#284255)
I'd like to know about the PC's connected?
You know, the ones now not connected - kablaaamm!!!!

I have yet to see sabotage.
Will watch the news.

Are you in Kennet county?

Did you see the Sydney water pipes when they blew?
Damn good photography.

Perhaps it was ???

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:46 - ID#250121)
what of the elections? Is Hanson finished?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:54 - ID#39857)
goto be the golden triangle in Kennett County

no gas pipes flow to my door ha ha . he who became one of
the "Great Unwashed" at Jabiluka lives to reside clean as in the
land of the neo Great Unwashed. Life is richer now than I have
ever had the fortune to experience, mother nature has taken me
by the hand and she aint gonna let go, interesting the location
of gas explosion known as Kings Cross cause of the main
pipes converging, oh my just a poor hedgehog,end

(Sat Oct 03 1998 03:59 - ID#284255)
Don't know.
New just coming on.

Will post back soon with info.

Looks like a cliffhanger.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 04:16 - ID#284255)
Surfing the USA

John Disney
(Sat Oct 03 1998 04:29 - ID#24135)
Well Now
High Rise ..
Lemme sleep on it ..
Baby .. Baby
Lemme sleep on it ..
And Ill give you ma answer in the

(Sat Oct 03 1998 04:42 - ID#284255)
Squirrels beware
Goodbye, El Nino ...Hello, La Nina

(Sat Oct 03 1998 04:48 - ID#284255)
Sounds like Paulene is killing them.

No kiddin!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 06:09 - ID#284255)
South African Share Market sites;list

Paulene stealing votes from the libs, while the labourites watch quietly.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 06:15 - ID#284255)
Share market games

(Sat Oct 03 1998 06:48 - ID#284255)
World's Wealth Decimated By Market Slump
By James Saft

LONDON ( Reuters ) - At least $4.3 trillion of wealth has been destroyed by the
turmoil engulfing financial markets and the
feel-bad factor is hitting the world economy.

By Friday, that total -- greater than the annual gross domestic product of
France or Germany, and more than half that of the United States -- had been
wiped off stock market values worldwide in little more than two months.

``The collapse we have seen in stock markets is going to have a big effect on
what people can go out and afford to spend,''said David Brown, chief economist
at Bear Stearns International in London.

The worry, especially in the United States, is that consumers are now cutting
back on spending. This, in turn, may further slow the economy and hurt company

Calculations by HSBC Securities European strategist Sharon Coombs reveal the
extent of the market carnage. She said the $4.3 trillion total was based on
global market capitalization since Wall Street hit an all-time peak on July

And the carnage shows little sign of abating, with Germany's bourse down as
much as seven percent and London as much as three percent Friday. U.S. blue
chip stocks started the day weak again, but by 1535 GMT the Dow Jones
industrial average was little changed at 7,637. This in large part had come
about because consumers believed their shareholdings would provide them long
term economic safety. This paper wealth underpinned a massive buying binge in
the United States.

Economists also say collapsing consumer confidence could lead to a
deflationary spiral. U.S. data this week showed the biggest fall in consumer
confidence since January.

The U.S. consumer is saving virtually nothing -- just 0.6 percent of
disposable income in the second quarter, said Albert Edwards, global
strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London.

This in large part had come about because consumers believed their
shareholdings would provide them long term economic
safety. This paper wealth underpinned a massive buying binge in the United

``The U.S. has a major economic problem,'' Edwards said.

``Consumer confidence is collapsing. If that brings the total savings ratio
back to the 4.5 percent of a couple of years ago the U.S. will be seeing a
deep recession.''

Bully Beef
(Sat Oct 03 1998 07:03 - ID#260119)
Sharefin From your last post...Why would the U.S. want to have their
Citizen's spending all but .6% of their total incomes. Living in that kind of consumerism is way beyond my way of thinking.I try and save 10% of my gross income ( my salary ) every year ( and put it into mutual funds which have taken a beating ) .

(Sat Oct 03 1998 07:09 - ID#28994)
If I invested $100. in the stock market 5 years ago and its value increased to $500.
And then the market declined and I end up with $100.
How much money did I lose ?
I always wonder if the economists are talking actual money.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 07:13 - ID#284255)
GPS - Based Spacecraft Navigation

Kind of makes one wonder how Loral and others are going to do???

Plus the rest of us sheeple.

Oh! What a tangled web they weave.

When/if the GPS system goes down in August 1999, it could well go down for an extended period.
( Check earlier GPS link where they state the code needs rewriting. )

Dependant upon this system are;
Utilities - power stations

They all need the GPS system for the 'atomic time signal'.

Plus all those incidental services we rely upon.
Ships - oil, fishing and goods transport.
Weather forcasting.
Emergency 999 or 111 Nos.

And oh, so much more.

This one could be bigger than Y2k, but then isn't it all to do with modern society's interdependance on computers.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 07:39 - ID#284255)
Skinny - Bully Beef
You just participated in a bubble.
And that's all you've got to show for it.

But what of all the others who have spent their new found money?
And the other's who borrowed to get in at the top?

How many people have leveraged up and up?
Sort of like LTCM.
Made some profits and borrowed some more.
Time after time till their asset base is so huge.
And now they are poised with immense profits but huge liabilities.

I dare say some people are watching their assets dissappear.
In ammounts which most of us would never see in our lifetimes.

No saving just leveraging up in a monumental Dow bubble.

All the European indices are looking tragic.
Some down 20%
Most down 45%
And some down 70%
And the Dow is only down a bit so far.

They look like they have completed the first crash of 1929.
And are now due to rally before the long bear sets in.
Some look like they are trying to base.
To stop their fall from grace.
They are sitting on major support levels.

If they fall from here, through these supports then we're going to crash big time.
If the dow falls here then they're going to fall big time.

If the global PPT teams cannot turn the markets here then all is toast.
And in very short time.

It looked like the US PPT were active for the last 3 days of last week.
Even though they were at work, they had trouble holding it all up.
( how many global PPT's were intervening last week? )

I would anticipate that they will pull out all stops this coming week.

My swing chart is still rolling over.
Showing this new selling wave just beginning.
The tick oscillation is showing we are just entering this next selling cycle.

Now comes the battle.

Beware and bewarned.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 08:15 - ID#253246)
Sharefin***whats the trick to stacks Q & A
I was trying to send a question to J stack on his thoughts about the cyanide ban on the Montana ballot . All I get is script error when I click on submit question do you know if this ever worked or am hosing it up

(Sat Oct 03 1998 08:27 - ID#367411)
Junior Mining Stock Explosion
Congratulations to all gold longs on a wonderful day!

In the gold bear of recent years, all of the juniors have been completely malled. It is my belief that:

*A gold bull has begun

*On average the gold mining cos will do well

*Solid juniors at rock bottom will rocket

So I want to find juniors that have been killed, but are fundamentally sound and will attract early/powerful buying. An example of what may start happening is GSR ( recommended by Bill Murphy at ) , which I picked up for $1.25 less than a week ago, and hit $2 on Friday. I think other quality juniors will follow.

Currently GKRVF, METLF and TLNOF look interesting....GKRVF has low debt & a solid you know any others like this?

Any comments on these companies??

I think there is little time left....I want to pick my targets and buy.....any other recs??



PS: Currently holding DROOY, FN, GRERF, GSR, PAASF, RANGY & SSRIF....

(Sat Oct 03 1998 08:54 - ID#183109)

Yr 2000, producing 489,000 ounces for RANGY at an average total cost of $202, this earns $1.91 FOR EACH DOLLAR INVESTED AT THESE LEVELS. Durban doesn't even come close!! and I gave them anticipated production of 950,000 ounces a year in 2000 @ $2.65. Durban's total market cap is some 750% of RANGYs at present prices. Don't get me wrong, I think Durban is a great company that is going to rocket with the comiing bull, but there's no way that it is worth 750% the market cap of RANGY. See for yourself...

If you don't have Excel, I'll have this posted in HTML to my website later tonight.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 09:12 - ID#29048)
More bad news for earnings
October 5, 1998
Barron's Feature
Goodbye, Pension Benefit

The bull has boosted retirement plans.
Will that reverse now?


Corporate pension plans have been major beneficiaries of the great bull market of the 'Nineties. As their pension assets have been swelled by the extraordinary equity market returns of recent years -- over 23% annually for the S&P 500 for the five years ended June 30 -- companies have been able to pare their pension contributions, which in turn has boosted their earnings.

If, however, equity market returns revert to a more typical 8%-10% annually, corporate pension costs will no longer be magically trimmed, and profits will be similarly reduced. That's something not fully
appreciated by investors already spooked by the prospect of significantly slower earnings growth, which is evident in the stock market's recent rocky performance.

The rest of the engthy article is at: ( subscription required ) or buy a hard copy of Barron's

(Sat Oct 03 1998 09:16 - ID#208161)
Greetings from a Newbie/Lurker Questions/Comments
I purchased physical Gold and Silver about a month ago when I heard a blurb in the news about the POG being at a historic low. I jumped on the Internet to look at spot prices and found Kitco. When I saw the POS drop to 4.65 that day along with the low POG I left work early and purchased both. I would assume that many others since then have also found Kitco given the market conditions we are experiencing and this would explain some the the bandwidth problems that are evident at this time.

I am interested in Gold futures ( calls ) and I have been researching and reading everything that I can find on the subject. Many on this site have posted links to reference materials and I appreciate it very much. I realize the dangers of knowing just enough to be....dangerous. I have learned quite a bit but I think that I am in the same position many new potential investors are in. I can read all of the "highbrow" information on futures trading but what I really need to know is the "nuts and bolts" information. I'm not even sure what broker to use out here in the sticks ( I'm in the central US ) . If someone has a series for newbies you may want to consider posting it on Kitco or posting a link to one, or even writing a new one given your experiences. I would think that it would help your cause given what I suspect is a renewed interest in the mass public concerning PM's.

In the last few days I have noticed that the price for Krands have been creeping up to point where many dealers are now selling them for the same price as Eagles and Maple Leafs. Do you suppose that this is because supply of gold coins is getting so tight? If so, why hasen't the price of Eagles and Maple Leafs extended past that of Krands. I'm thinking it's because of name recognition. The average Joe6pack knows the name Krand when it comes to gold coins so the dealer can charge the same price for Krand and get it given the surge in gold coins sales to the public. Comments?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 09:25 - ID#29048)
Barron's contra Aurum
October 5, 1998-- Commodities Corner---Wrong About Gold

Yellow-metal fans misread today's turmoil


The world's gold bugs seem to be exulting at news of the global financial crisis. And it's easy to see why. With stocks falling sharply in value, investors have started to show renewed interest in gold, that ageold hedgeagainst hard times. But their knee-jerk reaction ignores the fact that we seem to be looking at an outbreak of deflation, not inflation.

That's not to say that gold prices couldn't rise further over the next few months. Uncertainty always seems to stoke enthusiasm for the yellow metal. But the fact is that fundamental demand for gold is not increasing significantly and supplies remain plentiful.

Such bearish facts aren't inhibiting Jeffrey Christian, a metals analyst with his own research and trading firm at CPM Group in New York. He says gold prices have reached their cyclical bottom, and he confidently predicts that by year-end prices could jump another 15%, to a high of $350 an ounce. Sentiment has changed for good, he says, adding,"Investors simply don't like what they see elsewhere in the markets now." Christian contends investors waited out much of August, trying to see if U.S. equities would recoup. When the selloff continued, gold prices began to move up after touching a 19-year low of $273 an ounce. Friday, gold settled at $303.

Central bank selling has slowed somewhat, says Christian, especially as the January 1 launch nears for European monetary union. Although not many gold mines have closed, prices are moving up because traders are covering their short positions in the market.

Christian is so convinced that this is gold's moment that he hopes to take his company public in the coming months, and last week he launched a $5 million commodity trading fund to invest in precious metals. "The timing of our announcement is not accidental," he says.

Christian is not alone. Mutual-fund company Tocqueville Asset Management opened a new gold fund recently, the first start-up in four years. John Hathaway, the fund's manager, says, "We're starting the fund now because we're cautious on stocks and we think the downside risk is limited in gold. Sentiment is so negative that all the worst expectations have been priced into the metal and the equities of gold producers."

Hathaway began trading with $5 million and has invested in gold companies such as Anglo Gold and Homestake Mining. For the third quarter, the fund is up 10%.

Even Merrill Lynch's traditionally bearish gold analyst, Ted Arnold, has turned more positive on the metal. "I've closed out my short positions, and I won't sell short again soon," he told Barron's last week. Arnold does suspect, however, that many brokerage houses, having sold call options to investors who think gold prices will rise, are now hedging themselves by buying gold in the market now. "The paper market can live a life of its own," Arnold says, a reference to the notion that futures prices may move higher, even though the market's supply-demand balance hasn't changed much. "Sentiment is everything."

Making Moves

It's worth noting that some gold companies seem to be making moves to insure that their top executives don't get too caught up in the market's positive sentiment. Several companies have changed management lately, removing miners from the top ranks and replacing them with finance men. Perhaps the appeal of the financial types is that they can be counted on to increase hedging programs and forward sales. Few companies want to bet the farm on gold prices anymore.

One of the latest management shuffles came at Gold Fields, the world's fourth-largest gold producer, where Chris Thompson has been appointed to run the company when Chairman Brian Golbertson steps down later this month. Thompson is currently managing director of Continuation Investments, a Rothschild family company involved in venture capital. Prior to that, he ran another investment firm in Denver. If gold companies are guarding against excess enthusiasm, perhaps investors
would be well advised to do the same.

E-mail: cheryl.strauss-einhorn@news.barrons.com1

(Sat Oct 03 1998 09:26 - ID#243250)
puts & calls
Mr. newbie:
Don't do it as its a mugs game Instead do your d.d. on a good medium sized jr. or inter't gold or silver company with cash flow or at least working capital. Then, and only then do you have a chance...regards good luck and welcome!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 09:28 - ID#411440)
SILVER LEASE RATES: One month lease rates rose to 3.64% on
Friday morning NY time. This rise would eliminate the profit margin
on any silver carry trade. Silver was shorted down 12 cents on
COMEX on Friday despite the zero possibility of a silver carry profit.

GOLLUM has an interesting theory, posted last night. His take is
that its a little put and call cycle that ultimately drains silver
out of COMEX at the expense of spot POS. Therefore it is a
manipulation of spot POS downwards. Sounds good.

My take is that the holders of the short overhang attacked silver by
shorting, even though this is not economic re the silver carry.
This was done purely because of fear. Those exposed to the short
overhang are now willing to take near term losses in order to short
back the spot POS. If they don't keep silver down, it begins to
activate computer generated short covering and silver explodes.
This unwinds the entire hedge fund exposure to the silver short
overhang. Silver was cheapened on Friday as a result. I expect
more silver was removed from COMEX stockpiles as a result. Supplies
of silver just got tighter, even though the price fell.

Lease rates tell it all. Lease rates are higher, and liquidity has
been further reduced. Instead of a spot price increase, lease rates

It does not matter whether Gollum is correct in his interpretation of
the silver manipulation, or I am correct in saying the short attack
was purely defensive. Silver stockpiles just fell, and so did
silver prices. Manipulation is manipulation. Eventually this thing
will blow, and each manipulation shortens the time until that reckoning.

IMHO. Nobody knows the when. We can see the why, and the who, and
the where, and the what ( silver ) but the when is still a mystery.

The leasing scam parallels the flat currency scam. The total world
debt load now exceeds the total world capacity of the financial system
to pay it off. The total short overhang now exceeds the capacity of
the borrowers and silver producers to pay it off. BOOM. I just
don't know when.

I do know this however. The present price of silver is just over
five dollars per oz payable in dollars that may themselves prove
to be worthless. So what is the true value of silver?

The above statement indicates that my knowlege of the silver market
is worth its weight in paper dollars.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:03 - ID#258195)
Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates -London Close
Here are the Lease Rates for 02 Oct calculated from data published in the Financial Times this morning.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate-1.41--------------1.77-------------1.76-----------------1.79
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.04 ) -------- ( + 0.11 ) ------- ( + 0.05 ) ------------ ( - 0.03 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate--2.30--------------1.25--------------0.80-----------------0.70
Silver Lease Rate-3.08--------------4.06--------------4.32-----------------4.21
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.56 ) -------- ( - 0.35 ) ------ ( - 0.53 ) ----------- ( - 0.65 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since yesterday's figures.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:18 - ID#258195)
Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week.

Date | Close | High | Low |
28 Sep | 71.20 | 71.43 | 70.87 |
28 Sep | 70.90 | 71.59 | 70.81 |
30 Sep | 71.58 | 71.77 | 71.28 |
01 Oct | 72.54 | 72.65 | 71.61 |
02 Oct | 72.73 | 73.01 | 71.98 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )

These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.

Note that the 6.5% rise in the Dollar price of gold from $276 on 31st Aug to $295 on 30th Sept was made up of a 1.9% rise in the True Value of Gold and a 4.6% fall in the value of the US dollar against all other currencies.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:31 - ID#344326)
Commentary from Bill Murphy of "Le Metropole Cafe" reposted with his permission
Midas du Metropole
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"

October 2, 1998 - Spot Gold $300.30 up 70 cents - Spot Silver $5.20 down 7 cents

Technicals -

The leak in the bear dam is starting to create a flood. The dramatic tug of war continues, but the bears need more than someone sticking their hand in the dyke at this point. Besides, he is getting soaked. Our opinion of the technical makeup of the gold market is about a 10.

First, we had the killer move in which we made a slightly lower low on the right side of the base formation. That low ( the killer move ) buried many long term bulls and has them shaken to this day. Since then the price of gold has rallied and is in the very final stages of completing a massive base formation on a weekly basis. On a daily basis, chart wise, we have a powerful V formation, formed after the killer move low. We said weeks ago this was a very powerful technical signal, and that assessment has proved to be accurate. The base in gold can now support a strong, sustained move to the upside.

Second, we have very encouraging open interest patterns. Liquidation occurs on dips and the open interest is increasing on rallies ( which indicates new buying and that is what we wanted to see ) . On Thursday, the open interest went up almost 10,000 contracts. Third, we made note to you in the past that we have had a pronounced tendency to come in higher the past few weeks in N.Y. after the early London fix. During the bear market, we would come in lower more often that not. That indicates to me that the big league central bank selling pressure out of Europe has really died down and is ending, or has ended.

And finally, there are very few real bulls. We are shocked at how timid everyone is in the analyst community. There are the bulls ( looking for $305 gold ) and the bears ( the rally will fail ) . Most of them do not even know how to articulate the bull case - and that is as bullish as it gets. The point is: the lack of staunch bulls in the investment world is very bullish for the future price of gold. They will be converted to bulls down the road and that is where the future buying will come from.

After spiking up to $5.46 or so silver, sounded retreat. It is not a surprise and we are not alarmed. Silver producers, scared of a global meltdown, took advantage of the quick rally to lock in profits. Silver is an industrial metal too. As a result of that spike, silver may have some work to do before it regains its composure and soars. Also, you know we have noted in the past, silver is a mule. It goes when it wants to, not because of commotion outside the silver market - and that is what we had the past couple of days.

What is most important is that we received our second, third party confirmation that Warren Buffet was buying between $4.90 and $5.12 when everyone else was looking the other way. We repeat - second confirmation of that story. At $5.20 silver, he is still way in the money ( as usual ) .

Fundamentals -

The news for us gold family people was always bad for a couple of years. Now it looks like it will be the opposite and the stage is set for a roaring bull market. At least that is what the vibes from Rubin, Clinton, and Greenspan are clearly indicating. They are coming across like a bunch of desperados in tone of voice ( pleading for an IMF bailout ) and in action ( the Long Term Capital bailout ) . To actually admit there may be hundreds of hedge funds out there with big problems, says it all. You can read about this elsewhere. I have only one question, "Who pays for all this and with what"? Roll the presses. Print that paper.

With all the wailing that is going on, it is clear that interest rates are going to be adjusted downward. I am clearly shocked when I watch my boob toob and I listen to the answers to questions as to where should you put your money now as interest come down in the short term. "Stocks are scary, bonds have risen so much, and I am not used to piddly money market returns", is what I hear. Gold ( gold shares ) is rarely mentioned and not even on the radar screen in most cases. When the broadcaster does ask a guest about gold, it is usually," well, it had a blip of a rally, but that is it. Stay away from gold".

This may sound like mundane analysis, but, in my opinion, this is extremely bullish information. These same people will be screaming to buy gold $30 higher from here. I guarantee it. And there are so many of them!

Midas followers know that from day one ( see the first posting thread in the commentary section called " Gold shortage may fuel price rise " ) , that we believe, and have been saying so for some time, there is a massive, unhedged short gold position out there. We believe that that these entities have borrowed gold ( hedge funds and others ) at low interest rates from bullion bankers. We know that some have covered, but many are still short and have not covered. Long Term Capital is probably short and so are others. They have not covered because, they need the money from that trade to bail them out in other losing derivative trades. As long as gold does not go way up in price, they can stay short and pay a low interest rate - say 1 1/2 percent. A lot better than an 8 1/2 prime.

We know from public statements that our government bailed out Long Term Capital because, if they did not, they feared its failure would threaten our economic system. One hedge fund! If that is the case ( and it must be ) then they have to save Long Term. We think Long Term ( as a former trader of pork bellies, that misnomer still cracks me up ) is short some 375 tonnes of gold. If the price of gold shoots up very fast, then what? What do the bail out boys, do? What do the bullion bankers do with their wake up call? I suggest this tug of war in gold is bigger than meets the eye. For example, J. Aron, bullion dealer and big bullion LENDER keeps posting lease rates higher than other dealers. I suggest they are part of the Rubin Wall Street cabal ( and we know there is one now, so being a conspiracy advocate is mainstream thinking ) and defending their short positions at all cost; therefore, they need to pay up to do so. They know, if gold zooms, the Long Terms of the world could really be in trouble because their cheap loans would suddenly be expensive ones. And that could affect their profitable business and maybe even expose them to some serious problems. But, there may be even a bigger problem looming out there. What if the hedge funds are short 1,000 tonnes of gold, or more, like we think they are? Where do they get the gold if the price of gold takes off? Yearly world production is only about 2400 hundred tonnes. This is the time bomb we have been talking about.

The story gets more intriguing. This came to me yesterday from Bloomberg News.

" Italy's Foreign Exchange Office said it invested $100 million in Long-Term Capital Management LP and lent another $150 million to the hedge fund". The exchange office ,or UIC, is a division of the Bank of Italy that sometimes invests the central bank's currency reserves. " This is the Central Bank of Italy we are talking about which also happens to have many hundreds of tonnes of gold as a reserve." Antonello Biegioli, the UIC's co-director, said the exchange office expects to see the full value of its investments returned". OK, fine.

In the same Bloomberg article, " Liechenstein Global Trust AG, the principality's biggest bank, yesterday said it expects its $30 million investment in the fund will be written off almost in full.

So what gives? Have any of you invested in a vehicle in which somebody gets paid back in full and your buddy loses everything? Give me a break Italy.

The story gets worse, or more intriguing, depending on how you look at it. Next day ( yesterday ) Bank of Italy Governor Antonio Fazio said he was unaware, until this week, of an investment by Italy's foreign exchange office, UIC, in Long-Term ". "I never heard about it." Fazio told reporters. Not so fast Fazio. Pierantonio Ciampicali, UIC's director, suggested in an interview with Daily La Republica this morning that Fazio might have been aware of the investment. He said the investment had been discussed by the board at the beginning of 1994, an no one had opposed it". Asked who was present at the board meeting Ciampicali said " either the chairman or the director general or both must be present at board meetings".

That brings me to the point of the story. We think their may be as much as 7.000 to 8,000 tonnes of gold loans our there to producers, hedge funds, fabricators etc. The hedge funds alone are short big time. The Central Bank of Italy ( with its huge tonnage of gold reserves ) appears to be clueless about what they were doing. Or they are liars? Or they are scared?

That is a central bank. We know from our own leaders, that our own bankers did not know what they were doing lending to hedge funds. This is public knowledge, discussed in Congress, etc. In essence, lenders had to be bailed out because of their ignorance.

Greenspan and others have suggested that controlling hedge funds in the U.S. is not the answer. If regulated, they will go off shore. Lending to hedge funds will be regulated in a defacto sense by cracking down on their sources of capital borrowings . That means that the scope of the gold loans, of which everyone but Frank Veneroso, Peter Hambro and a few others are aware of, are going to be looked at closely. Many operations that lend gold are going to have their books examined.

Da Dah! Now when the cabal, and the powers to be, find out how much gold is lent out, and then check it against yearly production, there will be a quiet panic. The gold loans will be called in. Lease rates could zoom as lenders call in their gold loans one by one. It will be every man for himself. That much gold, in a short period of time is not there, and there could be major defaults, a la the Drexel Burnham, Michael Milken, gogo, junk bond days. Several central banks such as the Bank of Portugal had lent some of their gold to Drexel and when Drexel went under they were stiffed for a long time. Lease rates soared to their highest peaks in history when the central banks tried to get their gold back. And the total gold loans then were a trifle compared to today. I suspect the cry will go out soon: Bring in the gold loans! Cover shorts and fast!

Now if I have figured this out, I can assure you, that some pretty savvy, big money guys, who are much more plugged in than I, have figured out the same thing. And in these predator days, they will attack. They do not need our heroes ( David Niven, Anthony Quinn, Gregory Peck, and James Darren ) that destroyed the Guns of Navarone at $2.90 gold. They have nuclear bombs to drop on these bullion bankers and "bail out" bureaucrats. I know for a fact that one of the biggest hedge funds, who is notorious for being a leader and taking on other big money, may know what I am telling you and quietly entered our offensive fray. This well known hedge fund loves to create havoc with other hedge funds and stick it to them. Their track record over the years says they win a great deal of the time and they are on our side of this trade.

I could go on forever. No point. I said this weeks ago. Buy, buy buy. Then: buy more, buy more, buy more. The party has just started and very few people get it yet. And that is the way I like it.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

The XAU closed at 82.89 up 3.60. Powerful stuff technically. Blew through the minor double top. Hot money came right back in. All of a sudden I love the momo boys. Thank you John Brimelow for your alerting me that they found us. The big picture chart on the XAU is awesome and the base that is has formed can support a move to 155 very easily.

LE METROPOLE MEMBERS TAKE OUT CONTRARIAN FUND. After our spiel on Golden Star Resources, the volume in GSR was the highest in years and made the highest volume lists. I have personal knowledge of the many, many hundreds of thousands of shares that you bought. Approaching the million number. The volume after our pep talk was Golden Star's highest since their diamond discovery days.

Many of you have asked me what to do because it got away from you. Should I buy here. Well, that is up to you. But let me tell you my thinking for me. I will buy up to 3 1/2 in the short term. Why not! I think the stock is going to $60 to $70 in 3 years. At some point in the future I will gladly pay $12 per share.

Most of the comments that I look at from investors in many forums are about money made and profit taking. All well and good, but in my humble opinion, this is the time to load the boat, not take profits. Carp Diem . Seize the day. Buy more of your favorite junior golds at these bargain basement prices. Example. Some of you that have followed some of my thoughts at the very professional Silicon Investor site ( before Midas ) know that I talked about Canarc Resource Corp when it was trading at 15 cents Cdn. I had to pay 18 cents Cdn. Monday, I intend to add to my position and will gladly buy some more at 50 cents or better. I believe it will be a $10 stock, U.S., in a few years. The shares are going into very strong hands and there should be some very positive news coming down the pike.

Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of my life. Is GSR a value at 1 7/8 or 2 or 2 1/2? It is a giveaway.

One of our other big picture holdings is our South African stock, Durban Deep. John Brimelow, one of our "economic dream team" members, is having dinner with Roger Kebble, their Chairman, on Monday who is flying in from South Africa. We will give you the latest and that will be our next gold stock that we present to Metropole members.


Bill Murphy ( Midas )

After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the 1998 Gold Book Annual.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:35 - ID#377196)
Many thanks Dabchick - you're doing a great job.
Thanks so much for your most interesting posts.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:35 - ID#288231)


i agree 100% with your assessment of the near term for paper...
it is very close....and with it.. the new hit playing in theatres
near you........WAR!...and the middle east gas.for.lunch.bunch.....

imagine EVERYTHING bad that could happen.......

market crash...
war in middle east.......
war in balkans................
war in korea......................
major bio attack on us mainland.........
klinton destroys yellow house................all
happening at the same time.
we are despised..the west..and our demise, upon the minds
of those who have a debt to pay........a debt to their ancestors....

babylon awaits....and saddam has great plans for babylon and
the new power brokers of the world.....the us excluded.

the time has come...a facts a belongs to them...
they're gonna take it back......and a lot more.

the question remains the same...WHO has 'seen' the winds of war
blowing a gale? WHO will be able to look their families in the
face and say...'we have no supplies, weapons, or barterable goods..
i had heard it was possible, but decided to react instead of
being pro-active.....did not know this decision would be fatal'

it will be fatal....the peopleo will wait for the bell to toll
before worrying about collecting the fare for passage....
the bell tolls now....who can hear it? who will answer? who
knows they will be fodder?

AWAKEN PEOPLEO.....the time is nigh well upon you....
listen to the fin-who-shares......and the donald.........
the giants are bellowing bellicose......listen to them...they can
see for miles and miles and miles and miles....the who.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:42 - ID#344326)
Thanks to Sharefin for posting Oldman's comments....
Oldman, "I'm long but not for long" ( referring to US Markets, not gold )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 10:48 - ID#258195)
Summary of Gold Lease Rates
Here is a summary of the Gold Lease rates for the past week
Monday 28th Sept to Friday 02nd Oct
Period | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri,,,,,,,
1-Month | 1.70,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,1.41
3-Month | 1.68,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.67,,,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.77
6-Month | 1.77,,,,,,1.72,,,,,,,,1.71,,,,,,,,,,1.71,,,,,,,,1.76
12-Month| 1.82,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.77,,,,,,,,,,1.82,,,,,,,,1.79

(Sat Oct 03 1998 11:03 - ID#258195)
@Goldilocks @Sharefin
Goldilocks-- It's my pleasure!
Sharefin - You formatting genius you......the secret is not to go to preview then! Cheers.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 11:57 - ID#320136)
POG @ 302.10/60
It's been slow as molasses getting onto Kito
so please excuse should this be a repeat posting.
Please check into the Hong Kong gold market today
( Sat ) , looks like the yellow pushed up another
2 bucks!!!! Looks like next week we'll see


Check out

(Sat Oct 03 1998 12:49 - ID#320136)
Let's try that again...
Spot POG @ 302.10/60

find it at:

(Sat Oct 03 1998 13:25 - ID#373403)
Which will do better in the gold bull?
Undervalued juniors which have not moved much lately or the more widely held mining stocks which have already surged in price? Do the former rise more later or do the better known names outperform all the way up?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 13:42 - ID#29048)
Typically, the majors do best at the beginning of the bull and then the juniors take off. This may be a different runup because all of the stocks have been so beaten down. I bought some GSR @ 1.00 and it briefly touched 2 bucks yesterday. NEM is way up also. Durban has nearly doubled from its lows also. I feel like a mosquito at a nudist colony, I know what to do, I just hardly know where to begin. back to football....

(Sat Oct 03 1998 13:43 - ID#286249)
Heads up-on the way

Sino Accords, Regional Autonomy and a New Look Yen

Jan 97 v Aug98
DEM:AU:||AU:DEM..||:AU,,,,,|| AU:.....||
566.736||0.001764||42634.8..||0.00002346[@115.950]Jan 97
506.039||0.001977||40499.2..||0.00002356[@144.689-mo av]Aug 98
Sep98-w/'adjustments to yen

We are all conversant with the DEM 'devaluation' and the benefits accruing to Europe from this 'cleanER slate'; the Asian problem is contextually a horse of a different color yet, still a horserather greenish ...

( 4 ) The Asian contagion is exacerbated by loans denominated in dollars which must be repaid in yen.
( 5 ) It has become increasingly apparent that there is a 'work-in-progress' toward aligning the "worth in gold" of the DEM and the . Over a period of time, and adjusting what we think of as 'decimal places' but what are regarded in the vaults as 'significant numbers', one can view a convergence.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 14:16 - ID#286249)
Sleep deprivation

( 4 ) is the other way round, of courseoff to catch a nap

(Sat Oct 03 1998 14:43 - ID#31876)
A Lot of the Questions Lately Could Have Been Answered....
Yup, I must have lived too long. But, Howard J. Ruff has
covered most of them about 20 years ago. The public library
is still your best friend...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:07 - ID#284255)
I really don't know the answer to your problems.

Here's some for you.
Ya never know?

Square foot gardening.
Go for the nuggets at the bottom of the page.

Backup generators
Just finished adding a hundred odd urls to my web site.
Still growing.

PH in LA
(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:08 - ID#225408)
Who said "short-squeeze/limit up", anyway?

There is an extensive discussion at the USA Gold discussion on the effects of the LTCM near-default situation. It seems to be becoming more and more clear that LTCM did ( in spite of their denials ) have short positions in gold.

It also appears that those positions will have to be covered outside of the paper/futures markets due to reluctance of CBs to continue lending.

It has been postulated that attempting to cover 5 tons of shorted gold would move the markets up-limit almost instantly. The effect of hundreds of tons would be unimaginable. More details at:

It is starting to look like our old friend Farfel was more clear-sighted than any of us was willing to accept or comprehend. I wonder what the scoffers LGB, RJ and REALISTIC are going to say for themselves if any of this is correct? Will they find themselves banned for their abrasive remarks?

We should see attempts by them to beginn explaining themselves and covering their asses soon; the moment Farfel's "short squeeze/limit-up" prediction gains any momentum at all.

PH in LA
(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:18 - ID#225408)
REALISTIC: Don't forget to read THIS when you get a chance!

I sincerely hope you do not spend very much time congratulating yourself on what you appear to think is a clever way of expressing yourself with your nuisance posts. Because unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. Instead of cleverness, they demonstrate the paucity of your thought...the dearth of imagination that is yours.

In fact, in this real world, most of us do think one thing one day and something else the next. This is an inevitable part being human and of seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in the human weakness of others is not pleasant to behold. And it is whining to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Things change! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment is not always what that same mind thinks in all sincerity another. Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!"

Why not consider working up some stronger material?

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it!

These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:21 - ID#285121)
Sharefin: What do ya think ?
When the market panics will it take the XAU with it temporarly ?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:24 - ID#344326)
Taken from World Gold Council Commentary for this week.....
"Liu Shanen, vice director of the Gold Economic Development and Research Institute of the State Metallurgical Industry Bureau, recommended that the People's Republic should increase its gold reserves from the current level of 397 tonnes or 3% of total foreign exchange reserves of $140.5 billion to between 1,000 and 1,500 tonnes, between 6% and 8% of external reserves, "to prevent financial risk." The reasoning behind this recommendation is apparently the belief that China should cut its holdings of dollar-denominated foreign reserves to guard against a possible fall in the dollar on the introduction of the Euro, the single European currency, at the beginning of next year. China currently holds about 60% of its external reserves in US dollar-denominated assets, including about $60 billion in US Treasury bonds. "Compared with cash, gold is stable and safe," Liu Shanen said."

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:27 - ID#234182)
Good afternoon: The Larch and Aspens are yellow and golden.Thanks for the great analysis on lease rates & D'chick rates. Please keep up the good work and maybe more than just the trees will be golden!. Now; Rhody, off to work on the silver leaf Wolf willow rates.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:30 - ID#224363)
Something is not making sense...
Perhaps someone can read between the lines for me but I am more than a little bit confused by the conflicting statements with respect to hedge fund exposure.

1. The Fed engineer a $3.5 billion capital infusion into LTCM by 10-15 of the big banks. They state that their reasons for helping are to prevent a major meltdown ( sounds very very bad )

2. The banks ( including merill, chase, etc. ) say that they have a fairly large exposure to the hedge funds but that all of that exposure except for a very small amount is collateralized by T-Bills and Cash. The big exception to this is UBS and they write-off $750 million and some seniors executives resign.

3. The Central Bank of Italy say that they had some exposure to LTCM ( a few hundred million ) but that they will get it all back ( yeah right !! ) . Now what was a central bank ( you know...the kind of bank that looks after the well being of a country...doing investing in a hedge fund...Perhaps they loaned them a few hundred millions dollars of gold to sell )

4. Something about all of this seems just a little bit funny. If ( 1 ) is correct then the banks are fully of crap. If ( 2 ) is correct then whose butt was the Fed saving.

My guess is that something is something about this story still remains to be told and we will have to wait a few weeks to hear what it is. Alan Greenspan has spent far too many years balancing finance with politics to fall for blatant self-serving patronage. As they say 'Something is rotten in the state of Denmark' and we will just have to wait and see what it is.

Monday and Tuesday would be very good days to hear about some Central Bank gold sales or something similar to drive the price back down below $300.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:35 - ID#411320)
@ speed
I have also picked GSR as a winner. How is the management and
do they have plenty of cash.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:42 - ID#290202)
POLARBEAR: Did you see Pete's post last night? Are you concerned that RANGY is to be delisted from the Johannesburg Exchange by year's end??? What will happen to the ADRs in that event?...John Disney, any comments to that?? ( note: I'm not RANGY bashing, since we do hold thousands of ADRs...this is a legitimate concern. )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:42 - ID#257151)
It's a matter of accounting for the accounts

It would be very interesting to discover how the Italian CB accounts for its mutual fund "investments".

Are they foreign currency reserves? Non-contingent liabilities? Whadefug?
And I wonder, where do they get their mandate to risk capital like that?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:54 - ID#335190)
Leland @ 14:43 "The Public Library Is Still Your Best friend"
1889: "The Man Who Dies Rich Dies Disgraced" writes steel magnet Andrew Carnegie in an article on "The Gospel Of Wealth"

From The Gospel of Wealth, published [25] years ago:

This, then, is held to be the duty of the man of wealth: first, to set an example of modest unostentatious living, shunning display; to provide moderately for the legitimate wants of those dependent upon him; and, after doing so, to consider all surplus revenues which come to him simply as trust funds which he is strictly bound as a matter of duty to administer in the manner which, in his judgment, is best calculated to produce the most beneficial results for the community.

In fact, by the time he died in 1919, he had given away $350,695,653 ( 3 ) . At his death, the last $30,000,000 ( 4 ) was likewise given away to foundations, charities and to pensioners.

Andrew Carnegie was convinced of and committed to the notion that education was life's key. He was convinced of the power of, what we term today, access to information.

Andrew Carnegie: A Tribute

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:54 - ID#227238)
PH in LA:
My concern would be that the CBs will pass the hat, for real gold, to cover the hedge fund's short position. Serious nuts are being squeezed. They will pull out all stops to prevent a runaway gold market.

The question remains; Would other countries contribute to what is a US problem? Probably not. Unless the hedge fund default caused them to fear for their own hides as well. We shall watch this together. Yes?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:56 - ID#206235)
Harmony... why is it stuck?
With Gold having made a fine move this past week, I'm wondering why Harmony didn't respond? Bought some DROOY and HGMCY for the first time ever on Monday and Tuesday. DROOY rewarded with a quick payback. Now it's time to decide whether to take advantage and try doing some share churning by betting on a down blip for DROOY. It's been working well in SSC shares, but then they've stayed in a very narrow trading range for weeks.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 15:57 - ID#29048)
Even on a Saturday, I'm having trouble getting in here...
GSR has a large number of properties. Their reports and filings indicate competent management. See for yourself...

GSR has posted a quarterly report at FreeEdgar:

As of June 30, 1998, the Company held cash and short term investments of $11.1 million ( $27.5 million as of June 30, 1997 ) and working capital of $11.2 million ( $26.7 million as of June 30, 1997 ) . The decrease in cash resources and working capital resulted from the expenditures on the Company's exploration activities during the second half of 1997 and the first six months of 1998.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:01 - ID#34883)
Bart: Methinks your Kitcocom/backup banner is slowing down the site.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:04 - ID#373403)
How is this bailout any help? Assuming that it's collapse would have spelled disaster for financial markets how are we any better off?

Lets say that LTCM used $4 billion to leveredge $100 billion and the market wiped out their capital.

Banks and other creditors throw good money after bad and recapitalize for $3.6 billion. The leveredge is still in effect and the markets have not changed direction so the fund is still losing money. How long before this $3.6 billion gets eaten up?

This is what is not being spoken as AG and RR try to instill CONfidence. The "principle" behind the bailout was to avoid a disorderly selloff which could shut down markets. Since the markets are still moving against LTCM2, the selloff still needs to be done sooner, rather than later, more, rather than less.

The same conditions exist as before, there is just new capital to be lost. Greenspan hinted that by waiting, the LTCM bets may come into the money. Since it is generally accepted that LTCM was shorting bonds ( expecting a fed rate increase ) I think the fed is still amply afraid of inflation , and that is why they only lowered by 1/4%. They had to do something about the market/fed spread but did not want to look like they did not have a clue by lowering more and then later having to tighten later.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:05 - ID#335190)
SDRer @ 13:43
"the Asian problem is contextually a horse of a different color yet, still a horserather greenish ..."

Take Care To Sell Your Horse Before He Dies
The Art Of Life Is Passing Losses on
-Robert Frost-

Take Care

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:08 - ID#206235)
@ PH in LA... "Short squeeze / limit up"
As you are very well aware, the *Fword prediciton of "Short squeeze / limit up" had nothing to do with the long term fundamentals of Gold leasing/borrowing, CB machinations, et al. Nor has RJ, myself, Realistic or anyoneone else I'm aware of ever stated on this forum that a shortage in the Gold market can't occur in the long term.

*Fword was rightly humiliated for his total ignorance, by RJ, when the *Fword made a SHORT term call for a "Short squeeze" that was supposed to occur in a manner of 2 or 3 days. He has made several such calls, believing apparently in his self delusional messianic complex way...that he could singlehandedly bring it about by willing it so and causing a "Paradigm shift" through force of his own propagandizing.

*Fword has also been rightly humiliated for making continuously absurd statements in the dozens about the actual market trade of Gold ( and Platinum ) hence the "Limit up" issue. But then, RJ and Jujube have already totally discredited him on this front.

Finally of course, *Fword was bounced from this forum for reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with his views on Gold or any other market, as everyone here is well aware ( except apparently yourself ) .

Now then, be a good lad and go back to defending your idol Bill Clinton, instead of mis-stating once again, the record re your other idol *Fword. Bill and *Fword, after all, have much in common.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:08 - ID#29048)
Bill Murphy of the Veneroso camp knows a lot about GSR and he has posted some info on the SI board

I believe he may be putting up some info on the new site he is creating.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:10 - ID#341234)
Tony Brown's Journal
Did anyone see Ed Yardeni on Tony Brown's Journal on PBS. They both agreed that between Asia and Y2K, recession is almost certain. Tony Brown brought up the point that investors will become focused on preservation of wealth rather than high returns. For a second, I almost thought he was going to recommend gold.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:11 - ID#266105)

Factoid of the week, the $4T gone to money heaven in the past
few months of global equity market turmoil.

Anecdote of the week, a guy on an 18 month waiting list for
a new Mercedes four-wheeler gets a call from the dealership 16
months ahead of scheduled delivery to come and get it due to
86 order cancellations.

I wonder if there's a connection.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:15 - ID#263379)
@ Realistic
Don't pay any attention to poor PH. His three idols, ANOTHER, *Fstain, and Bill Clinton, have all been totally discredited.

This is tough on a guy like PH, who can't form an original thought, and instead worships these idols of self importance.

I've never seen an intelligent market comment from PH. Not even a wrong one. Thus all he can do is attack those who do provide some discourse and perspective...especially is that discourse is critical of his "idols".

But then, when you have leftist, socialist, "I have to suck at the Govt. tittie" leanings, as PH does, you deesperately NEED these idols of thought and Govt. to latch onto.

Keep on posting those reminders of the words we said in days of yore. It does so help keep a perspective for thinking folk.....


(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:17 - ID#257151)
How many mixed metaphors can u spot?

Yes, The LTCM bailout has introduced Moral hazard into the risk equations for the Dow bubble now. The question becomes:

Is the fund big enough that it *must* be bailed out?

Remember the Penn Square bank was a peanut, but Chicago Illinois ( its major factoring bank ) was no 9 ( ?memory failure ) . The FED had no choice, bail out the bank.

Now, if you're a grossly overpaid fund manager, and you know that you've got debtor's leverage AND you have seen another fund bailed out, what would you do on Monday? Go for Broke ~~ full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes? Or would you try to get out now while the flack is still flying and the incoming missiles are still below the horizon?

The rest of the world is, I think, paralysed by the glare of the on-coming freight train...freight train, goin so fast...the G7 will, I suspect try to do something, but all around there are signs of a renewed interest in gold from Russia, Japan and China, Interesting isn't it? The world's basket-cases are tub-thumping for GOLD.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:23 - ID#222231)
TheMissingLink-Rates about to rise? Repost from USAGold by FOA.
Pete ( 9/30/98; 09:18:30MDT - Msg ID:278 )
Hello Pete,-------------------------- Yes, I think you read it about right. Its chock full
of political intrigue. For some time, Another has posted that dollar rates were
about to be taken up, in his opinion, to defend the currency against the coming
Euro. At this late stage of currency war preparations, its world economy be
dammed, the battle is about to begin. The LTCM group knew this, so they bet
the farm on higher rates.---------------------------- Pete, these people, at this level of
power are not stupid. Gamblers, yes, stupid no! They work on real knowledge,
not a traders guess as the press has portrayed them as doing. Problem is that
their bet was as large as most countries and it would have caused a further CB
embarrassment had so much money been made on an inside decision. I think
they talked of lowering rates first to destroy their capital, then later took them
over on the news. When its done, rates will rise. Thats why these major
players are now selling off the Dow Jones on a rate cut, they know whats
coming. Their position in the old LTCM portfolio will be sold off with a big
profit, just as their old management had bet it would. The obvious portent from
all of this is that the US economy is about to take a hit of unimaginable
proportions from a currency war fought during a collapsing world economy.
Wow! My best financial advise? Forget gold, buy a super fast computer so you
can access this site later on! Its going to get real interesting! Thanks

Best regards,


PS: USAGold has been dissecting the LTCM problem and is worth a visit. IMHO.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:29 - ID#335190)
October 3, 1998

Developing nations urge easing by industrial powers

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Poorer nations Saturday urged the world's industrial powerhouses to ease monetary policy to restore calm to financial markets and said they reserved the right to curb speculative investments.

The Group of 24, which represents 128 developing nations

The developing countries also complained about the recent increase in interest rates the World Bank charges them, saying the move was not helpful at a time of financial crisis.

The draft communique said this was "particularly inappropriate at a time of growing financial stress for a majority of borrowers."

The World Bank decided July 31 to increase to 75 basis points from 50 the spread it charges borrowers above funding costs.

It also decided to add a front end fee of 100 basis points.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:31 - ID#344239)
@ EARL 15:54 POST

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:48 - ID#344326)
3 cubed
That's an interesting point. If this gold short squeeze occurs and it is as big as some like Frank Veneroso say ( 8000 tonnes leased from Central Banks that were then sold and used as jewelry, etc. ) it could send the price of gold skyrocketing so fast that it would throw the world's financial system into a tailspin. Some type of brakes might have to be instituted. The world's financial system would be sent into a tailspin ( as if it isn't in one now ) I think that CB's must now realise that a HUGE mistake was made in leasing out so much gold for pennies. How do they correct that? My guess is that the price of gold will be manipulated once more, but this time, very slowly upward!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:53 - ID#252150)
Earl@A CB is a CB is a CB. They are all run by slime sucking
bottom feeding bureaucrats. Either they hang together or they will hang separately. They will do whatever it takes for however long as possible to perpetrate the current fiscal/monetary sham & keep their perks, regardless of the negative implications for the general public.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 16:56 - ID#20767)
THC: re your 08:27 -- Campbell Resources (CCH) ......

This little gem is my largest holding.

It has two primary negatives: 1 ) 150+m shares outstanding and 2 ) limited resources. ( And, of course, a third, it is a gold miner! ; ) )

However, I believe it can be a poweful performer in these markets because of: 1 ) good cash position, 2 ) good management, 3 ) actively producing and 4 ) being listed on the NYSE.

My CCH position is complete, for now, and is averaged in at 5/16. It closed Friday at 7/16. In order of current value, my other holdings are: RANGY, ASL, MAENF, GSR, SSRIF, HGMCY, DAY, CAU, VGZ and CFTN.

All of these holdings represent 90% of my investment capital.

Best regards,

Bob in DC ...... GO GOLD!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:01 - ID#433172)
What about the cheap share dillution of Drooy? Ethical? Legal? If Rangy is anyway connected doesn't that screw that up?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:14 - ID#227238)
Aurator/3 cubed:
Aurator: Of course, the process of bailouts over the past 20 or so years has had the effect of creating an expansion of the moral hazard. At this point the players look upon the bailouts as a natural part of their playing field. The precedent has been firmly established. Why not take advantage of it?

3 cubed: The gold genie will not be so easily recalled. Confiscation, so called, will not work. Especially on a worldwide scale. Any more frustration of the free market for PMs will prove to be no more than a minor irritation. In the end, the CBs will lose. As they did in the '70s when they attempted to control it. ..... That they have controlled it over the past several years, was only possible because of a roaring market for paper. That is ending as we speak.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:24 - ID#206235)
Big Funds not piling into Gold...small players are?
LONDON, Oct 2 ( Reuters ) - Stock market falls pushed European gold higher on Friday and dealers eyed a U.S. close above $301.00 for signs of further gains ahead.

London gold fixed at $300.80 a troy ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $301.40, the latter a high since May 15.

One London dealer said gold should hold between $301.00 and $304.00 by Friday's New York close but added that moves in U.S. equity markets might alter that.

``The only thing that will change my view is if the U.S. stock market takes a turn. We are watching the S&P closely,'' he said.

European bourses fell to November 1997 levels in volatile trade, boosting government bonds and encouraging some to turn towards gold as an alternative.

``We are certainly seeing some small investors coming back into the market, private investment banks for example,'' said another London dealer.

Gold's rise from a 19-year low just off $270.00 last August gained pace last week with the $3.5 billion bail out of U.S. hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management after losses on Russian bond plays.

While LTCM was not thought to among the many funds active in bullion, its problems prompted short-covering in gold as other funds cashed in positions.

One dealer said the short-covering boost could be double-edged, with struggling funds steering clear of gold altogether rather than buying into improving technical signals.

``That's the only worrying thing for the continuity of the gold rally because you would expect the funds to be piling in on the back of the technicals but they are just not there,'' he said.

Friday's move saw gold's 10-day moving average crossing its 200-day average just above $294.00, one of several classic signals used for trend-spotting.

Gold prices in Australian and Canadian dollars reached fresh two-year and 18-month highs respectively but failed to trigger mine hedge sales, one dealer said.

``We are not really seeing a great deal of selling,'' he said.

Spot gold was last higher at $302.40/$302.90 versus New York's $299.70/$300.20 close on Thursday.

Silver stood ignored amidst the gains in gold, dropping to $5.24/$5.27 against its $5.29/$5.32 New York close.

Platinum was also down at $348.00/$350.00, $4.00 lower versus New York, while palladium was $5.00 poorer at $277.00/$282.00.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:25 - ID#43349)
Silver currency???

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:30 - ID#344239)
@EARL POST 17:14

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:34 - ID#206235)
@ Gollum...silver currency
Interesting link...but I wonder about the contradictions. They say;

""The currency, American Liberty Currency, is one of the hottest collectibles this year and an evolution returning the United States to a currency backed by silver, rather than national debt. "

Hmmmm.....on the one hand they say that they're a "Hot collectible" and on the other hand they want to be taken seriously as a genuine currency "redeemable in silver" with "redemption centers throughout the U.S." Guaranteed redemption in silver by...who??? And the relative value to U.S. dollars and/or silver bullions market price to be ...what again??

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:36 - ID#43349)
For the copper archives

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:39 - ID#43349)
Yeah. Lot's of questions. On the other hand I guess they DO have to walk a tight line due to currency laws. A "hot collectible" might be ok, but a currency would definitely be invading Congresses turf.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:40 - ID#411251)
Just got wired up again, after a 2000 mile move. Haven't had a chance
to follow the markets very closely. I've doubled my money with my TVX
stock. Was wondering what the general concensus was at Kitco? Time
to take some profits, hold a little longer?
Any comments greatly appreciated.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:42 - ID#93199)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Select Gold Up 65% Precious Metals Up 62% in 25 days

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:42 - ID#20768)
From SI Thread:

To: waldo ( 20497 )
From: Richard Harmon Saturday, Oct 3 1998 11:24AM ET
Reply # of 20523

LTCM saga true about gold? Yes!!!
Jack Thompson CEO Homestake did a Great interview with Neil
Cavoto on Fox Business News. ( no on line link - sorry ) He was fearless in stating ( and fully explaining what it means ) that L.T.C.M was being forced out of their short gold position, He did not say "maybe", or "perhaps", he stated it as firm fact. When asked where the POG was going he answered with only a grin and a twinkle in the eye, while starting into another subject.
IMHO we are headed to $600-900!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 17:52 - ID#243420)
Steven K. Beckner
Market News International
"If things do not begin to stabilize, G-7 monetary authorities may have little choice but to heed the advice followed by the Fed in wake of the October 1987 crash: pump in the money and ask questions later.

In other words, the Fed and other central bankers may have little choice but to ease more aggressively than they would like and deal with the inflation and exchange rate consequences when they emerge from the other side of the current crisis.

Whether they say so publicly or not, the G-7 are likely to develop contingency plans to do just that."

** Market News International Washington Bureau: ( 202 ) 371-2121 **

PH in LA
(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:02 - ID#225408)
Setting the record straight!
Date: Wed Sep 23 1998 12:32
LGB ( @ Realistic...China's Gold reserves / Belgian CB Gold ) ID#269409:

Vintage Another....March 98

"Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end."

Well, Well, well. As I said, we should see the beginning of the excuses and explanations the moment Farfel's predictions gain credence through fulfillment in the real world. And so already the backpedalling begins!

LGB has difficulty with the concept of time. Apparently; since he thinks long-term means after next week. He now asserts that his problem with Farfel's short squeeze was that it didn't take place within "the next 2 - 3 days". Something that Farfel never, never, ever said. Let me repeat that: NEVER, NEVER, NEVER! If I am wrong, please post the date and time of his words. The 2 or 3 days LGB refers to were his own interpretation of Farfel's comments. Not what Farfel said. Again, please prove me wrong with references! I do not want to be unreasonable, here.

However, speaking of references: In a recent post ( Date: Wed Sep 23 1998 12:32 ) LGB did write:

"Vintage Another....March 98

"Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end.""

Here his problem seems to be with the English language. In March of 98 ANOTHER says "I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, BEFORE YEAR END" ( upper case mine ) and in September 98 LGB calls that another failed prediction; proof that ANOTHER is not to be taken seriously. Over 3 months before the year in question has ended!

No, if anyone is not to be taken seriously, it is LGB.

And yes, I am aware of the reason Farfel was thrown out. As I recall, it was for the same reason that LGB was thrown out at the same time.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:06 - ID#288295)
Is this a sign of the gold bull?

eBay's non-US gold coin listings are up to 4 pages
now....there were only 1 or 2 pages at the end of

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:07 - ID#288295)
Trying again...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:08 - ID#404410)
Barron's article on gold by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
Entitled "Is This Gold's Moment?" -- "the gold bugs think so. But that view ignores the fact that the problem now is deflation, not inflation."
Fron: BARRON'S, Oct. 5, 1998, P.MW20


(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:15 - ID#404410)
Wall Street Week comments about gold
Panelist Mary Farrell was asked what she thought about the recent move in gold. Her answer: "It's just a dead cat bounce."


(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:16 - ID#373403)
Free Applets from Intel
Check out my spinning cube at:

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:28 - ID#252127)
Interesting Junior

Found this in the "Markets Section - The Northern
Miner" and did a little searching.
Nevsun ( nsu-t ) , cash Can $10 million, no Long Term
Debt. Company says it has resources of 2.47 million
oz, in Mali and Ghana, the Ghana propery abuts Ashanti
Goldfields's 800,000 oz. annual producer.
Nevsun presently has 23.5 million shares, fully dilluted 27.5 million, price Can $0.80
To get to their home page see top left corner

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:33 - ID#412286)
Begging for IMF money as part of the Farm Bill so Asia will buy more US exports. You learn something everyday I didnt know that the IMF money was going to Asian agricultural importers. Fund THE IMF ( with taxpayer money ) WE HAVE TO HELP THOSE POOOR PEOPLE...oops I mean rich investors and institutions. And while your at it toughen up those bankruptcy laws so those deadbeat American Citizen Taxpayers have to pay when they fall on hard times so the big institutions can hand out credit cards and be guaranteed to some extent against loss just like with the institutions overseas investments. Ya CANT SAY THEY ARENT CONSISTENT...MARKET DISCIPLINE FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN....BAILOUTS AND ALL MANNER OF SOCIALISM FOR THE RICH AND THE BIG INSITUTIONS. I am glad we in America dont practice Crony capitalism like those bad other countries. They need to REFORM to prosper equals THEY NEED TO START LAYING OFF AND ERODING THEIR WORKERS SOCIAL SAFETY NET SO THE RICH AND THE BIG INSTITUTIONS CAN PROSPER BY SHUFFLING PAPER AND RAIDING COUNTRIES AND ECONOMIES FOR PROFIT. If you hear the WORD REFORM..hold on to your wallet and look out.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:35 - ID#252127)
Nevsun site correction

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:37 - ID#367411)
***Juniors that will Roar***
Re: Juniors that will Explode:

Thanks for your response, Boardreader!

Actually, I also recently took a look at CCH, but I decided not to buy. I like the fundamentals, but I didn't like the long-term chart. Many of the juniors are now 1/20 to 1/40 of their highs, with investors deciding their undeveloped resource properties are "worthless". When they decide they have value again, they will roar. CCH does not have much of a past high to aim for, so I decided to pass. Thanks anyway.

Re: CAU & DAY:
Looked at both.....currently very cheap, but aren't they embroiled in litigation? What is your take on the situation?

VGZ: you see they have properties with large potential resources that will allow them to continue mining?

I notice we have some overlap in holdings......wishing I had bought ASL.......

*****Do you or anyone else have an opinion on Golden Knight or Trillion? Thinking of buying buy next week........*****

Thanks again & good luck!


Tantalus Rex
(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:40 - ID#295111)
LTC short 375 tons of gold?!
I heard on the radio earlier today that a fund had shorted 12 Million ounces of gold but I did not catch all the details!!!!!!

As per my post yesterday, reliable sources tell me LTC is short between 75 and 325 tons of Gold

But 12 Million ounces is equivalent to 750,000 pounds. And that equates to 375 tons of gold shorted!!!

CAN ANYONE PLEASE CONFIRM ANY NEWS RELATING TO 12 MILLION OUNCES OF SHORTED GOLD... especially and in particular the fund shorting the gold??????

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:41 - ID#410194)
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:50 - ID#286249)
Yen currency region~Asia unwilling to bail US banks out once again
No more-we learn from our past...
[Comments translated into English by author, Dr. Iwao Kitamura]

1980s: a slogan of " internationalization of a yen " appeared in mid 80's. This word itself is the object that American government says and takes out. In " Japan-US yen-dollar committee " in 84, US government strongly demanded a open of Japanese financial capital market. Necessity of an internationalization of a yen was pointed out from a side of American government in the committee.

At that time, in spite of economical expanding, US faced a serious crisis in both financial and fiscal. It was " debt crisis " in the South and Central America to become a large unstable primary factor of US financial market. US brought the crisis on itself. This was a crisis of American large banks rather than a crisis of South and Central America. It was a back-flow to an international financial market of Japanese current surplus as the countermeasure. An open of Japanese financial capital market was demanded therefore also.

1985: In Plaza agreement ( October, 85 ) after that, dollar turned to be cheaper in the exchange market. Willingly, as a direct investment to Asian countries expands it urgently in a business condition expansion, a ground of Japan and America against " yen internationalization " changed greatly for a liberalization of Japanese financial market further.

1988: In IMF general meeting in September, '88, when Japanese government called for the internationalization of yen as other countries to possess yen as reserve currency, American government showed a strong repulsion against this.

PH in LA
(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:53 - ID#225408)
Tantalus Rex:

Over at the USA Gold forum there is an extensive discussion going on today about LTCM's short position of 400 tons of gold.

While there, you should mention that you heard a reference to 12 million ounces on the radio since it confirms what they are saying.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 18:56 - ID#286249)
US Hedge Funds & Havoc...
TIMELINE--September 1997

TIMELINE-September 1997
Asean currency bid launched
THE NATION : September 19, 1997
Surachai Chupaka, Kulchada Chaipipat

"Separate currencies are unstable and vulnerable," Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya told reporters last night. He added that while the region may consider adopting the European Union model in managing a common monetary policy, the goal could be achieved faster than the decades-old attempt to create the single European currency.

Other regional leaders such as South Korea's finance minister and China's vice minister for international economics also expressed support for closer monetary cooperation in the region.

Cooperation from Japan and China will have to be sought if Asean is to move ahead with closer monetary cooperation Asean finance ministers will today hold talks with counterparts from Japan, China, South Korea and Europe focusing on the currency crisis.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:01 - ID#286249)
( 3 ) There is acute discomfort in the ranks of career diplomats at USG's very public lecturing/hectoring of the Japanese government. It is one thing for Japanese papers to question the efficacy of their government's policy, quite another for an 'ally' to publicly browbeat. China too, has had its share of 'Big Brother Knows-How" lectures, and we might remember that on one occasion-at least-the president of China remarked that China was not a school-child who had to be lead down the correct path. The diplomatic gaucherie has hastened China's rapprochement with Japan and facilitated China's efforts to reconcile differences with Taipei.
"Jiang Wants Japan Ties to Be Closer Than U.S: President Jiang Zemin has called for more substantial relations with Tokyo than Beijing-Washington ties as diplomats from both nations prepared for his landmark visit to Japan. Beijing is pressing Japan to set up a joint mechanism for concerted action to tackle regional economic issues to strengthen the relationship into the next millennium."

Steve in TO
(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:04 - ID#209265)
Coin question -
Canadian Maple Leaf coins are .9999 fine according to the lovely little specimen I've got sitting on my desk here.

What does the .9999 stand for? Is it fractional purity, as in ratings of chemicals, i.e. .1 parts per thousand impurities?

Are some coins, like the Krugerrand, .999 fine?

Are the .999 coins less popular because of their lower purity?

Inquiring minds want to know,
Steve in TO

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:05 - ID#295111)
@PH in LA Thx will check it out, thx again

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:06 - ID#412286)
All the talk of about "what is money"
The average person can buy something with fiat money, even rubles and Rupiah buy something. The real issue today is THE DOMINANCE of one currency. The fact it doesnt have an anchor is irrelevant as people look
at it like gold. Note a loss of confidence in the US ability to control things will result in a new fiat that will have some kind of gold backing. The Euro definitively holding 15% in gold reserves that this is not out of the question. Today the DOLLAR SOCIALIST SYSTEM IS UNRAVELING. Did you know that Latin America and Easstern Europe obtained low interest rates by having their debt backed by US Debt in the form of Brady Bonds ie if a LA country defaults US taxpayers are on the hook. Most dont realize it but it is true..THIS IS THE REAL REASON FOR THE PANIC OVER BRAZIL..Thanks PREZ BUSH. This was a nice idea except only the rich benefited through a stock mkt boom which engendered over enthusiastic private investment and lending in these countries...Hence our problem today. The US model of Capitalism has emerged as a result of Dollar dominance ie the dollar system and this system created a bubble by guarantees like BRADY BONMDS. This is the system which is currently unraveling and it means much higher interest rates and Depression in the US. Once OFF the dollar std and the dollar debt is cleared ie Default the stage will be set for a new system and if handled correctly growth and prosperity. IT is the dollar system and the desparation to cling to it which is causing the unfolding of this Worldwide depression. Their only answer is more credit and this will only delay the defaults and harm the receiving economies so banks and investors can be paid. The final battle is underway and is there for all to see FINALLY!

PH in LA
(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:18 - ID#225408)

I sincerely hope you do not spend very much time congratulating yourself on what you appear to think is a clever way of expressing yourself with your nuisance posts. Because unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. Instead of cleverness, they demonstrate the paucity of your thought...the utter dearth of imagination that is yours.

In fact, in this real world, most of us do think one thing one day and something else the next. This is an inevitable part being human and of seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in the human weakness of others is not pleasant to behold. And it is whining to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Things change! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment is not always what that same mind thinks in all sincerity another. Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!"

Why not consider working up some stronger material?

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it!

These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

PS. REALISTIC: Don't be too heartened by anything LGB says. He doesn't seem to be able to recognize an intelligent comment when he sees one. If he could, he obviously wouldn't feel compelled to post most of his own comments.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:20 - ID#280214)
ROR - do you propose a better solution or more of the same "manipulation"
You state: "a new system and if handled correctly growth and prosperity"
I object to ANY "system" that is "handled" regardless of who does it.
I do not trust socialists, social democrats, democratic socialists, or ANY of the infinite breeds of creators and "handlers" of monetary "systems". All these systems are open to manipulation by those whose self-interest is served by said manipulation. Socialists, whether democratic or tyrannical, are just as rotten as those they detest.

I used to agree that one of the proper roles of a national or federal government was to maintain a monetary "system". Section 8 of the US Constitution states that one of the powers of Congress is "To coin money, regulate the value thereof"

I naively suggest to this august forum of intelligent minds that money coined from Gold or any other rare and precious natural element is all that is required for a monetary "system".

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:24 - ID#222231)
BUGal-One fairly large fund is allocating more funds to PMs.
The Van Eck Hard Assets fund just recently announced allocating 25% from 8% of their assets to PMs. They decreased their funds a couple of years ago from gold. Sounds like a trend to me. It won't take many funds to reverse the trend. IMHO.

Best regards,


(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:31 - ID#404410)
Understanding Jimmy Rogers (he makes sense).
Jimmy Rogers likes commodities that get used up ( like gasoline ) . He doesn't care that much for gold because all the gold that has ever been produced is still around ( just changes hands ) .
His approach DOES make sense.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:33 - ID#237299)
G7 Meeting this weekend: I remain wary of gold's immediate
prospects. If LTC really was a threat to international markets if it
unwound too quickly, then surely it will be on the table for discussion.

I see no reason why AG couldn't simply announce,
"Say boys, we've got ourselves a bit of a problem. How 'bout we all pony up a few hundred tons each, ( off the books, of course, wink wink ) sell it at a "slight" discount to these damn hedge funds under the tables- and everybody's problems go away. We'll kill four birds with one stone; The hedge threat will go away, the markets will stabilize, we can shut up those friggin gold-bugs for another season, and we'll be injecting capital into the system completely off the books. Wadda' 'ya say?"

The "emergency meeting" makes me nervous.
They can't control it forever- but they ( being the inventors of the con ) can sure cause some trouble.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:35 - ID#45173)
How's this for a redesign on the new $20 bill?
The Greenspan Greenback.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:38 - ID#346209)
Yes, exactly my worries this weekend. Also XAU is at longterm
downward trendline from early 1996, on weekly XAU chart.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:40 - ID#335190)
Cold War ENDED ?? @ Pope assists peace, or will War erupt in the Balkans (1914 & 1941
October 3, 1998

Pope visits Croatia to beatify man accused of aiding Nazis

ZAGREB ( AP ) -- Thousands flocked to a shrine in northern Croatia where Pope John Paul today plans to beatify a cardinal seen as a hero by Croats but accused by Serbs and Jews of sympathizing with the Nazis.

It is John Paul's second visit to Croatia, where about 80 per cent of the 4.7 million people are Roman Catholics.

Pope John Paul knelt and prayed for two minutes Friday in Zagreb's cathedral before the glass tomb of Stepinac, embalmed in red and gold vestments and a gold mitre.

While serving as Zagreb's archbishop in 1941, Stepinac supported Croatia's German-backed Nazi-puppet government led by dictator Ante Pavelic.

On Friday, the Pope spoke of "the terrible period of communist repression."

The Vatican was one of the first countries to recognize the young state after Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991. Croatia's secession and that of neighbouring Bosnia led to wars in which tens of thousands of people died.

John Paul also called on Croats to spur reconciliation among the country's ethnic, religious and political groups. In a gentle jab at the authoritarian rightist government, he urged "an ever-greater democratization of society."

1914: World War I begins in Europe July 28 one month after the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne in Bosnia.

1938: "I believe it is peace for our time...peace with honor" says Prime Minister Chamberlain.

1938: Adolf Hitler vows to "protect" the 10 million Germans living outside the Reich, annexes Austria and engineers a plebiscite which shows that 99.75 per cent of Austrians desire union with the Third Reich.

1941: Yugoslavia has a revolution March 27; German troops invade April 6, Croats support them, and hundreds of thousands of Serbs are killed, mostly by Croatian irregulars.

1941: Jewish terrorists in Palestine use violence to fight for independence from Britain. The Stern Gang founded by Polish-born underground leader Abraham Stern assassinates officials and bombs military installations and oil refineries. The British will kill Stern in 1942. Stern's followers will continue the struggle.

1941: German troops invade Soviet Russia and advance rapidly against the Soviet Army, whose leaders have been liquidated by Stalin's political purges. British Intelligence predicts a Soviet collapse in 10 days. U.S. Intelligence says 3 Months.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:40 - ID#43349)
They should form a Kitco discussion group

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:41 - ID#45173)
Steve in TO
It means it's "pure" gold, meaning the manufacturer has refined 99.99% of the impurities out of it and have not alloyed it with anything else.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:44 - ID#237299)
Steve in TO: well, EJ just answered you, but this was already written
Yes, those are literal decimal fractions of 24k. So, .9999 is
9999/10,000th pure 24K. likewise .999 is 999/1000th pure.

Trying to tell the difference between the two is cutting the pie a
little fine don't you think. Some mints require it, but most bullion
houses have lower standards.

all the other common decimals you see, ( like on european jewelry )
are literal, .750 = 18/24th or 18K
.585 = 14/24th or 14k etc etc

The maple is pure, the eagle and the krand are alloyed, hence the
brassy color

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:45 - ID#373403)
G-7 meeting agenda
1 ) Send Joey 2 cents to Kitco to swear LTCM was not short gold
2 ) Disrupt Kitco downloads
3 )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:47 - ID#183109)
hopefully my last post on HOOVER TRASH.
HOOVER'S...The Ultimate Source for Company MIS-Information
"The party's over and the mines once held by Randgold & Exploration Company are all gone, leaving the company to clean up and turn out the lights. The firm is the descendant of Rand Mines Limited, South Africa's oldest mining house, but its role as the parent company for Durban Roodepoort Deep, Harmony Gold Mining, and other firms is over. It has spun off three marginal gold mines into Durban Roodepoort, sold its interest in the Marsfontein diamond find to SouthernEra Resources, and listed its Randgold Resources division ( which is prospecting for gold in Mali ) separately on the London Stock Exchange. Randgold & Exploration is expected to delist from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange by the end of 1998."

Date: Tue Sep 22 1998 18:10
POLARBEAR ( Gold Fevor @ RANGY...Hoover should stick to selling vacuum cleaners! ) ID#183109:
Copyright  1998 POLARBEAR/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GOLD FEVOR, the HOOVER REPORT you speak of is an absolute joke. Whoever wrote this report for Hoover is either an absolute moron who did not bother to do any research on the company, or has some other agenda. Would you consider the list below as irrelevant? May I quote from Hoover  Randgold Resources division ( which is prospecting for gold in Mali ) .

PROSPECTING FOR GOLD IS MALI.WHAT A LAUGH. Randgold holds 20,000 Sq. Km throughout Africa, and has rapidly expanded their resource base to over 10 Million ounces. They have one mine in full production already, with the second already under construction, and #3, #4, and possibly #5 on the way, Id call PROSPECTING IN MALI one of the grossest negative exaggerations Ive ever heard of. In excess of 300,000 ounces of production by mid-1999, and at least another 200,000+ coming on line in 2000, this guy obviously didnt bother to do his/her homework. As goldbugs, does this attitude toward gold companies in general surprise us?I think not.

PLEASE CHECK THE FACTSYou might even consider enlightening HOOVER on the truth.

FACT: 11,252,000 RR shares $27,000,000
FACT: SUF diamond payment $10,000,000
FACT: 7,568,841 DURBAN shares $22,700,000
FACT: $20 Million share issue from RR $20,000,000
Lower Estimate: Transvaal Gold Mining Estates $4,000,000+
Previous negotiations at $14 Million.
Lower Estimate: OTHER ( Harmony options etc. ) $4,000,000+
Harmony Options alone worth nearly $4 Million.
Lower Estimate: Mineral Rights: 70,000 SQ. KM $35,000,000+
"Flack says Randgold plans to sell the southern African mineral rights, other than those at South Wits and the potentially diamondiferous Marsfontein in Northern Province, into a listed company in exchange for shares. He says independent advisers have valued the mineral rights package at $85-million. Negotiations regarding TGME and Randgold's 10% stake in Navachab are also under way."
TOTAL ASSETS: $123,713,723+

TOTAL Debt -$54,000,000 ( mainly long-term bond 2001 )

TOTAL VALUE: $69,507,200+

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:47 - ID#43349)
The difference between '29 and '98? WE know about '30.,2960,15059-101981002,00.html

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:50 - ID#280214)
Addendum to my 19:20 on monetary Gold
Any monetary element must be of sufficient value, quantity and distribution so that the monopolization of it is extremely difficult.
Gold could form the basis for a manipulation-free monetary system if:
1 ) The value of all the world's Gold approximated the Global M1.
2 ) Gold is owned by every human commensurate with their share of M1.

Since the physical stock of Gold can not be increased without higher POG,
then the POG must increase tenfold ( thus increasing the physical stocks ) .

Gold must also be coined in sufficient quantities to assume its role
as a monetary medium. In spite of Gresham's law - enough Gold can be
coined to overcome hoarding IF the POG increases enough as well.
This requires coining of many BILLIONS of small coins.
Each grain of gold's may be equivalent in value to what US$10 is now.
Thus a means of coining or packaging Gold in small quantities is needed.
A 10-grain coin might be the largest denomination conveniently used
in common day-to-day retail trade and person to person transactions.

We, as champions of Gold,
must pioneer and evangelize the distribution of tradeable, monetary Gold. One metric tonne equals 15,432,358 grains.
Thus 1,000 tonnes would yield 15 billion 1-grain monetary units of trade.
Whether you glued one grain of Gold leaf onto a Gold backed "dollar",
or sealed a one grain wafer inside a lucite disk {like a fly in amber},
15 billion of them, at a reasonably high POG, could replace all the paper dollars in the world {multiples could easily be packaged in higher denomination trade units and be broken down for change as needed}.
For more ideas and for info on what some of us are DOING to foster
the monetization of Gold in common trade e-mail me at

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:51 - ID#431200)
As stock markets fall, North American shareholders worry Not so with European stakeholders.
Avoiding the American diseaseSaturday, October 3, 1998 PETER COOK
Brussels -- Not so long ago, shareholders were in and stakeholders out. Now the tables are turning. As stock markets fall, North American shareholders worry about how much money they are losing and whether there will be a recession. Not so with European stakeholders. They are far more relaxed
The idea used to be simple. Companies did best by having one overriding goal: maximizing the money they made for the people who owned their shares. That was the way things were in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada and Britain. In the rest of Europe and Japan, the profit motive was pursued less single-mindedly. Yes, companies should make money, but balancing their duty to shareholders were obligations to stakeholders such as their workers ( who might, as in Germany, be represented on the board ) , suppliers, customers and the wider community.
In the long years of the bull market, much was heard of enhanced shareholder value. But, since mid-July, as markets have tumbled, many Americans are beginning to regret the day they umbilically linked their families' well-being and their hopes of a comfortable retirement to the rise and rise of Wall Street. Europeans, on the other hand, have never embraced the equity culture and have always suspected the stock market was a casino. Their preference has been to keep their money in a bank or in bonds and count on the ( admittedly dubious ) prospect of a state pension to cover them in their old age.
A study by investment firm Salomon Smith Barney shows that in 1997, the average American family had a stock portfolio worth 143 per cent of disposable income; Canadians had a portfolio worth 85 per cent; Britons had 75 per cent. In the case of Americans and Britons -- but not Canadians, whose fortunes have been tied to a slower-moving market -- the value of the family stock holdings have tripled since 1984.
Contrast these new-rich folks with Germans, whose family stock portfolio was a mere 25 per cent of disposable income, and the French, with 20 per cent. In another corner altogether stand the Japanese who, in 14 years of faithful investing, have only lost money.
The implications are clear. When markets fall, Americans and Canadians and Britons feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend. As a consequence, they are more likely to pressure their government to do something to help out and, because of the danger that declines in consumption may cause a recession, the government or central bank is likelier to oblige. Link that to what is actually happening and you find that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, worried about Wall Street's plunge, has already cut interest rates, and next in line to do so are Canada and Britain.
This, however, is not judged to be enough. There have been calls from the International Monetary Fund for the Europeans to help offset global recession by cutting their interest rates. All indications are that they do not want to. Base rates, at 3.3 per cent in Germany and France, are anyway lower, and these two countries, plus nine others, are about to launch a single currency with a single interest rate. To achieve that rate, some countries that have higher rates now -- Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland -- will reduce them. Altogether, that will mean a 0.4-percentage-point decline in the average interest rate -- which will be the extent of Europe's contribution to curing the world's malaise.
Europeans may avoid the worst of the American disease. Having bet less on stocks, they have less to lose. And if they want to feel smug they can recall that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan declared, just six months ago, that "only free-market systems [like the U.S. one] exhibit the flexibility and robustness to accommodate human nature and harness rapidly advancing technology to consistently advance living standards." In Wall Street's carnage, rapidly advancing technology has been hit harder than utility stocks. So much for human nature. So much for shareholder value.
But smugness is inappropriate, given what Europe is also losing. In Germany, as an example, investors were finally beginning to support new ventures and startups. The Neue Markt -- the local Nasdaq -- arrived just 18 months ago and had begun to sponsor the Bill Gates's of Germany, such as Gerhardt Schmid, who had managed to turn his Mobilcom telecoms firm into a $3-billion ( U.S. ) high flier. On the big board, valuations had soared -- so much so that Deutsche Bank, which has a stake in many blue-chip companies, was in July sitting on a portfolio of other people's shares worth $23-billion.
No more. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Frankfurt DAX market index fell 12 per cent, with banks rumoured to be connected to international hedge funds under fierce attack. At its peak in late July, the index was at 6,171; yesterday, it opened at 4,094 -- one-third lower.
It is axiomatic that big market falls can be the prelude to recession anywhere. The dangers, however, are greater in the United States where the stock market, seen as a refuge for everyone's retirement funds, was hailed as unsinkable as the Titanic. Europe never went so far -- avoiding, as it often does, embracing American enthusiasms too eagerly. As a result, it is doing not-so-badly.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:52 - ID#222231)
POLARBEAR-Please check your link re HOOVER
Got an error message. I would like to read your comments.

Thank you,


(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:54 - ID#227238)
Highhopes (Understanding Jimmy Rogers (he makes sense).:
Yeah, that makes perfectly good sense. ....... Except. The county won't allow me to build a tank farm on my property. Even if it's for the purpose of storing value for my dotage.

So if I'm precluded from storing value in petroleum products or grain or orange juice ....... what the hell will I do? ..... Someone mentioned precious metals. Think that will work????? Who knows. Let's give it a shot.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:54 - ID#344326)
@ TheMissingLink (G-7 Metting agenda)
I just about fell out of my chair laughing on that one!!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:58 - ID#412286)
Mary Farrell
comments on gold are like asking Clinton what he thinks of Ken Starr or asking a Hitler what he thinks of Jews or asking a Jew what they think of Hitler. I have met Mary and I believe she is a good honest person but then when you work in the brokerage industry you are in the equivalent to the World's Oldest profession. And anyway who REALLY knows whats going to happen. Clinton plausible deniability has now given liberty to the worst Wall St touts like Joe Battapaglia. I thought Mary looked a little uncomfortable in spouting the party line. But in the past five years those on Wall st who went against it looked like idiots sand were fired. Mary Farrell is a super person/ anyone who has met her personally will attest to same. I think she is a closet bear. Only my HO.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 19:59 - ID#280214)
Steve in TO (and EJ and Obsidian
Gold to be exchanged on the London Market must be.99995
- do I understand this correctly?
Is there anywhere available at reasonable price {close to bullion spot}
Gold which is .99999 fine {yes FIVE nines}?

Note that a one grain Gold wafer sealed in a protective package
would not be subject to the usual wear of common circulation
and thus could be .99995 or even purer.
As the package wears it could be replaced - just like we change gloves.
The precious therein could be examined as needed to verify weight and purity. We have the technology to do so without destroying the "coin".

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:03 - ID#45173)
Gollum - We know about 1930
We believe we know what to do to avoid it and think we can act together to prevent it.

Who do you think will do the best in the give and take on the solution? Creditors or debtors? The solvent or the insolvent?

Who has the position of greatest strength in the negotiation? Looks like it's the US, but the US may not get to play the bully this time around and cut a post-WWII type deal for itself.

Your inflation scenario is looking promising. Glad I got gold.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:07 - ID#280214)
A one-grain Gold wafer or "coin"
would be 6.5mm in diameter if it was 0.1mm thick
{same thickness as a common sheet of 20# copy paper}.
Suitably esconsed in a transparent sheath, it could suffice for trade.
Current value of such a wafer is a bit over 60 US cents.
BUT - if the POG increased tenfold this wafer would buy
an average restaurant breakfast or a 6-pack of good beer.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:08 - ID#384350)
Gollum - Is this New World Communism?
Gollum ( They should form a Kitco discussion group ) ID#43349:

So are they going to outlaw withdrawal of funds from banks, prohibit receiving proceeds from mutual fund and stock sales?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:10 - ID#45173)
You, sir, are a purist indeed! Industrial grade gold for special applications is available at higher than .9999 fine, but not @ spot. If you want, for example, to coat a piece of optical glass with a few nanometers of gold, for a guy to wear on the moon, or in a movie of a guy on the moon, although it's not clear why you'd invent this technology for a movie, you have to pay through the nose for that extra decimal point of purity.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:10 - ID#384350)
Should I Sell my Mutual Funds? what a friend emailed me today. I have been telling my friends for about a year now how the stockmarket is overvalued, cash is king, gold/silver as insurance. I have bought a few friends Prechter's Book, At the Crest, and I doubt any of them have read more than 1 chapter ( not that I am certain of monetary deflation as opposed to currency collapse ) .

I think the masses are starting to cop on, and my friend is asking if he should sell because he wants to sell and is looking for someone to offer confirmation that he is making the right decision.

But seriously with PE ratio's trading at 25+ based on negative earnings growth, with bogus accounting to boot, and likely credit collapse even Dollars are in question aren't they.

The US dollar has fallen a good 20% against major European currencies, but they don't talk about that too much do they?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:16 - ID#400260)
abx closing price???
The chart form Market News Center has ABX closing at 22 1/4 but I see in Barron's that they have a closing price of 21 5/16. Can someone give me the real price--Thanks

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:17 - ID#208392)
@Oldman - Thanks
Your advice and timing three weeks ago was impeccable. Well done!

STK |Percent| 6-Apr | 02-Oct
MNG | 36.44 | 5.90 | 8.05
PRU | 25.21 | 11.70 |14.65
PDG | 15.38 | 20.80 |24.00
ABX | 05.19 | 32.75 |34.45
GEO |-23.20 | 2.50 | 1.92
RNG |-40.37 | 5.45 | 3.25
SUF |-44.12 | 13.60 | 7.60
ORV |-45.95 | 1.85 | 1.00
ABZ |-54.64 | 18.30 | 8.30
GRE |-70.10 | 10.30 | 3.08

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:19 - ID#237299)
Squirrel: You also erred slightly, LMBA fineness is .995
not .9995

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:21 - ID#401460)
EJ - $20

Good Job!

You have been busy since last night.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:21 - ID#43460)
goldteck re your Peter Cook post
Interesting idea, stakeholders, that is. You know that Germany is exporting its midsized and even some heavy industry to the US, IMHO to get away from those same worker/stakeholders. I know of several chemical plants and one Mercedes plant which were opened in the US to take advantage of US worker's idea of fair treatment which includes shorter vacations, longer work weeks and more shift work. US payroll taxes are less than German too I believe.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:25 - ID#237299)
Gagnrad: yeah, those Brits and Europeans have the right idea
about holidays don't they! Damn, couple months off, paid, shorter weeks
must be nice to actually smell the roses.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:29 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro
I visited a friend tonight who owns a restaurant in Boston that's been successful for about 10 years. He said he's working hard to "recession-proof" his business. He also said he's worried about his stock market investments, down over 20% so far this year, and is thinking of cutting his losses -- he's at break-even for the year -- and regrets not taking my advice in May to sell. This is not characteristic of him. He is good man, but not a humble man.

He is the fifth person I've spoken with in the past week to express this sentiment. With all the press about global depression, is it any wonder?

You're right. The average investor is getting worried. They do NOT believe that world leaders will save the world economy. Hell, Japan cannot even save their OWN economy.

If the G7 crew can somehow act with greater speed and effectiveness than even one of the G7 members, then we'll have an outcome that is inflationary. Otherwise, we'll have an outcome that is deflationary. But, as you say, the deflationary outcome may also be attended with currency crisis, in which case the meaning/value of all currencies will fluctuate throughout the transitional event.

Soon I will need to make a decision about my own cash reserves. Leave them in dollars or buy more gold.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:32 - ID#237299)
Hey Squirrel: You know, you might want to be careful with
your ideas. Remember Ruby Ridge and Wacko? If your idea *really* did
take off some day- do you think the masters of the con would just sit
around and let it go unnoticed?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:32 - ID#290202)
Is it true that RANGY may be delisted from the Johannesburg Exchange by the end of the year?....If so, what will happen to the ADRs??? ( in your expert opinions, of course ) ThIA

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:32 - ID#290202)
Is it true that RANGY may be delisted from the Johannesburg Exchange by the end of the year?....If so, what will happen to the ADRs??? ( in your expert opinions, of course ) ThIA

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:33 - ID#412286)
Germany has a trade surplus and does not count its small prison population as employed as here withe largest incarcerated population in the world/ not to mention poverty and illiteracy. We have our low paying service jobs and LAYOFFS because of DECREASING PROFITS not actual LOSSES. In the end it is the US system that will disintegrate in any downturn/ the GERMANS and other more progressive countries have assured this. These other countries have seen it wise to adopt a balance between corporate power and wealth and their citizens. These countries are in fact much more Democratic IN FACT than the U S ( S&P ) of Amerika. Daimler and Chrysler merged..Daimler is more profitable and twice the size of Chrysler and never required a taxpayer bailout as with Chrysler. The Ceo of Daimler earns one sixth of the CEIO of Chrysler. Whose values are skewed here. Us Corporate greed is insatiable and rapacious/ it manifestation in hedge funds and Wall St is causing things to unravel. But this is good as the neo liberalistic free mkt ( but supported by taxpayers but screw the people ) meets its just demise.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:36 - ID#227238)
Looks to me like if POG rises much, you gonna be stampin' them little suckers outta gold leaf. ..... Maybe there's something to be said for alloying. Same gold content but in a physical size that's more practical. ...... or saving nickels and dimes for a one ounce coin will have the additional benefit of teaching thrift. ...... Discipline! By damn. That's what we need more of.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:37 - ID#348286)
@WHAT the Heck does this mean ???
Saturday October 3, 8:15 pm Eastern Time
Italy'S Fazio Says Boi Has Nothing To Hide Over Ltcm Investment

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:38 - ID#43349)
So what now?
As the G7 convenes to tackle the global financial crises, we ask ourselves what will come of it.

It should be fairly clear that whatever form the solution takes it will have to address the basic causes that created the problem in the first place.

Keynesian economic theory works in an isolated economic system, or if your currency and economy happens to be top dog, but it does NOT work if you are one of the little guys. Lowering rates and providing monetary stimulus only makes liquidity flee even faster toward higher real interest rate return. Surely the Japanese are a prime example.

The yen carry trade, indeed the gold carry trade, could only operate because of an imbalance of rate of return.

Ecen the smaller countries are becoming aware of the problem, even if the IMF is still blinded by the smoke.

So, only if the rates of return come more into alignment, by whatever mechanism, will the crises ease.

This implies a weaker dollar, and the unwinding of the hugemongous overhang built up in the treasury/bond markets.

How can this occur? Does not a collapse in the bond markets imply HIGHER rates? Not if the rate of dollar decline makes up for it. If the rate of holding dollar denominated bod is 6% but the dollar is declining at 4% the true rate of return is 2%.

The bond boom will be followed by the bond bust, short term rates will hold or decrease as the Fed struggles to cope, long term rates will soar as flight money exits, the dollar will decline, commodities will go up.

Let loose the dogs of inflation.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:39 - ID#45173)
HighRise - Thank you!
No bad for a digital graphics amateur, eh?

I'm working on a few others that express my vision of the future:

- Long Beach, CA -- A sea of unsold new cars covered in dust at port
- Las Vegas -- Ghost Town
- NY Times -- Classified ad for a six bedroom home in Rochester for $109,000

A picture says 1000 words. My way of saving Kitco bandwidth.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:43 - ID#20767)
Tantalus Rex: This was posted earlier.........
From SI Thread:

To: waldo ( 20497 )
From: Richard Harmon Saturday, Oct 3 1998 11:24AM ET
Reply # of 20523

LTCM saga true about gold? Yes!!!
Jack Thompson CEO Homestake did a Great interview with Neil
Cavoto on Fox Business News. ( no on line link - sorry ) He was fearless in stating ( and fully explaining what it means ) that L.T.C.M was being forced out of their short gold position, He did not say "maybe", or "perhaps", he stated it as firm fact. When asked where the POG was going he answered with only a grin and a twinkle in the eye, while starting into another subject.
IMHO we are headed to $600-900!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:45 - ID#20767)
THC: The Juniors

You may have brought out a flaw in my thinking re: CCH. I began investing in gold stocks last January. My concern at that time was to avoid bankruptcies. Every stock in my portfolio, except ASL ( which was close ) , was purchased at well below book value. This probably must be seen as thinking too conservatively, especially considering the, now bullish, outlook. However, I will hold fast for the moment, and reconsider if things seem to be moving too slowly.

CAU: Montana is holding an anti-cyanide referendum in November. Until this is resolved, the McDonald project will be in question. Otherwise, the legal problems of Canyon Resources in Montana don't appear to be too serious. But, for me, the proof is definately in the pudding on this one. I have a small holding, and am not adding any.

DAY: Besides the Minorca takeover attempt, something strange took place between Dayton and Medinah in South America and has yet to be resolved, as far as I know. I don't recall the details, but again have a small holding, and am not adding any.

VGZ: This one is a TA flatliner. As I recall, its fundamentals are mediocre. However, the name says it all ... Vista GOLD! I don't own much of this one.

GKRVF: Golden Knight is a Quartermain company, as is SSRIF. I, too, would like to know more about this one, and don't own any.

As the past nine months have unfolded, I have developed a method of subjective TA ( voodoo? ) for use in bottoming markets. The period ahead will prove or disprove its usefulness.

Yours in GOLD,

Bob in DC

DISCLAIMER: Bob is not a professional investor or advisor and may be wrong about certain facts or conclusions. Do your own DD!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:46 - ID#45173)
Gollum -- What if they hold a debt party and nobody comes?
The US tries to increase the money supply by creationing new money via the issuance of new government debt instruments but no one buys them.

Now what?

Steve in TO
(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:51 - ID#209265)
Obsidian - thank you for the info on purity &tc.
Another question: what are the Eagles & Krugerrands alloyed with?

What are the coins that are pure gold: either .999 or .9999?

The Austrian Philharmonic

The Australian animal coins? ( Do they come from the Perth mint?

Does the US mint make a coin that is pure gold?

BTW, Squirrel & EJ- from my experience with ordering reseearch grade chemicals, it is possible to get impurities down to a few parts-per-million ( i.e. less than .99999 ) but you would pay through the nose for such a pure product.

- Steve

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:53 - ID#43349)
They won't have any say in the matter. Trillions of dollars worth of treasury notes will be redeemed/sold as the overhang unwinds. Bond paper turned back into cash paper. The Fed will be CUTTING the sales of bonds, trying desperately to stem the flood, but the dogs of inflation once loosed can not be held back. The fire is in the hole, the only question is how long is the fuse.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:54 - ID#410194)
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Sat Oct 03 1998 20:54 - ID#410194)
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:01 - ID#288231)

the last 4 gold bottoms...from the privateer....

lock-step logical......another coffin nail..
excellent read..

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:04 - ID#45173)
The inflation you speak of results from the massive increase in the money supply from the large-scale sale of Treasuries by their holders.

Cash is trash.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:07 - ID#43349)

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:09 - ID#428232)
Food for thought... from Ackerman.......

"Others simply look at Uncle Sam's books and see $5 trillion in on-the-books debt, $9 trillion in off-the-books debt, and who-knows-how-much in way-off-the-books debt.

Applying Myers' rule, the amount that we collectively owe must eventually settle against what we own -- essentially, the homes, stocks and bonds in which nearly all of America's savings are vested.

This explains the mechanism that has been deflating Asia's economies. In effect, corporate borrowers can't produce enough cars, or cut enough timber, or sell enough silicon wafers, to service their debt.

The implication for the homeowner is sobering. When deflation spreads to these shores, as it must, asset values and income will fall, and even a modest drop will be enough to bury most mortgage borrowers.

Try to imagine being yoked to a 6.8% mortgage on a $300,000 house after it has been reassessed at $150,000. Now reweigh your relative burden when the highest rate of return available to you in T-bills or a passbooks account has fallen to less than 0.5%, as occurred during the Great Depression."...........

What the North American's are missing out on, up to this what the majority of the world ha

Chickens always come home ........



(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:09 - ID#28994)
Gianni Dioro
RE your post of 00.44 Sept 30
What you are saying is that people that purchased Canadian Bonds and dept instruments do not have to be repaid because the dept is not tangible.
Sure the dept is on the books, but it has been purchased by others as a business transaction and should be repaid.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:12 - ID#288231)

jadams.....charts..the moon....and more...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:14 - ID#261304)

Keep your juniors small...they will be the caboose pulled by the some of the locomotive ...NEWMONT.. moves with GOLD.. was 13 1/2 when gold was $280.... now $28 3/8 ... go gold... go NEM....

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:14 - ID#237299)
Steve in TO: @alloys
You probably won't be able to find this out *exactly*. It's an odd
peculiarity of refiners that they keep this info as a trade secret.
But the short answer is: mostly copper.

The common alloys are: copper, nickle, silver, zinc, palladium and a veritable smorgasbord of small percentage metals and salts- for flow characteristics, oxidation reduction, coining properties, melt v.s, flow
temperatures, crystalization properties, etc etc.

If your a chemist, then your probably familiar with phase diagrams. Well if you think a bi or tri-metalic phase chart gets complex, you should see the quirky results in some of these poly-metalic phase charts.

So the mix is adjusted for the end use. In addition to the mechanical properties there are color considerations. Copper creates red gold, nickle and palladium- white gold, silver makes greenish gold- and on and on. I'm not sure how detailed you wish to carry your search for knowledge- but there are several technical volumes out on phase diagrams, and alloying metals.

Personally, after 20 years in the field, I've come to the educated opinion that refining and alloying is much closer to alchemy and art- than science.

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:16 - ID#428232)
Is there anybody out there...........


"Others simply look at Uncle Sam's books and see $5 trillion in on-the-books debt, $9 trillion in off-the-books debt, and who-knows-how-much in way-off-the-books debt. "

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:17 - ID#288231)


read today.....what will happen tomorrow....

cherokee!;...aye.haggis..aye...und.hye.tambien!; )

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:20 - ID#384350)
I don't think the World leaders can do anything, it's beyond fixing. And if no one wants US Debt then the Fed just has to issue the Dollars for it.

I feel the only way they can keep up the markets ponzi shceme is through monetizing the Stock market and bailing out the banks. It looks like that is what they are trying to do as well as put in currency controls. As the US gets more and more desperate it will mimick Asia's intervention and currency controls.

I think as Y2K approaches it will become less and less beneficial to hold common currency although a certain percentage will be necessary for everyday kind of purchases. I would like to see some deflation in real estate and like to see PM's drop lower before I make a sizable move Central Bank notes for tangible assets in addition to what I already have. But when 1999 gets here Jan 1, that is when people will start to take action, and it won't take more than a couple percent to move and shake things. So we are running out of time.

"Something is happening, but you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones."-- B Dylan

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:22 - ID#288231)

just the facts please.....


Greenstone Gold
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:25 - ID#428232)
cherokee (in.honor.of.the.giants.....and.truth.....)

Once upon a time, the BRITS made a movie called ....

"Oh What a Lovely War"........ and don't they just love it !!

About to start drilling at Kookynie in Western Australia, about to find GOLD, and lots of it !

Taken any scalps recently ??

Och aye the noooooooooooo..................

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:26 - ID#384350)
Try not to get Sick around Y2K
You may wish to take care of optional surgery well before Y2K.

Recently a hospital in Lyon, France had a power outage during which 8 people died. An investigation has ruled out the power-outage as the cause for some of the deaths, for the others they are investigating further ( note: hospitals don't like to admit fault ) .

This was a simple power outage, I don't know what happened to generators. Now think of power outages plus possible machine malfunctions. The distribution and storage of medication, blood, etc may also be compromised.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:29 - ID#43349)
Kind of ironic. Not too long ago it was cash is king.

Of course, it's dollar cash we speak of. Other kinds of cash will be great as the rebound from years of carry trade unwinds.

Look at long term rates right now. Record levels. That isn't there because of some puny little 1/4 point decrease by the Fed.

Foreign flight money, carry trade money, hedge fund leveraging.

Even now, flight money from the European frying pan has come rushing in.

If the G7 soothes the panic, everyone will start to look around and begin to realize that the frying pan was not nearly so hot.

As treasuries are sold the dollar will decline faster. As the dollar declines faster, treasuries will be sold faster.

Wall street panic is a children's birthday party compared to bond market panic. The bond market is capitalized about two hundred times the size of the stock market. Two orders of magnitude is not to be sneezed at. A 1% drop in the DOW is about 80 points. If the bond market drops 1% it involves a total change in value the same as 200 times that 80 points, or 16,000 points!!! Twice the whole DOW all added together.

On the news they might say, "The bond market fell one per cent today", and everyone shrugs their shoulders.

So even if the DOW goes to 6000 in a violent crash, it doesn't mean all that much. In '29 the market crash wasn't the problem, it was the bank failures in '30.

Look at LTCM. Why was the Fed so worried that they engineered a bail out? Was it because LTCM was into stocks? No. It was the treasury/bond market disruption that was the fearsome thing.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:30 - ID#290202)

I like the way you both think. Might a way to play DAYTON MINING ( DAY ) ( last

11/16 ) be to purchase matching shares in ( litigant ) Medinah Energy ( MDIN ) which

is trading at ( last ) 7 1/2 cents ( .075 ) ????? ( a year ago MDIN was over $1.00 ) That

way, you'd have the litigation winner whichever way it goes...or not???

Of course, all disclaimers apply, and do your own DD. ( I've also put

your rec's GKR and Trillion on my HMMMMM list; Thanks In Advance )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:32 - ID#35757)
@Greenstone Gold
Try to imagine being yoked to a 6.8% mortgage on a $300,000 house after it has been reassessed at $150,000.

Try to imagine being the bank that holds that loan, and 10,000 more like it. Imagine being Uncle Sam who has insured the deposits in the bank that holds those loans. Imagine being Uncle Sam who has obligations to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid etc, etc. What happens when Uncle Sam gets a margin call?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:33 - ID#237299)
Greenstone gold

"This explains the mechanism that has been deflating Asia's economies. In effect, corporate borrowers can't produce enough cars, or cut enough timber, or sell enough silicon wafers, to service their debt."

There is a very interesting "study paper" over in the archives of the BIS authored by Alan Grenspan, wherein he expresses their concern that the industialized nations are rapidly approaching "maximun productivity"- if this hasn't already been reached. ( read: we can't milk this cow for much longer )

They use this as the premis for the necessity of larger corporate globalization, i.e, that if you can't get more efficiant on the human level, then you must get more efficient by reducing "redundancy" in operations.

It's a very scary read for all the things that are implied between the lines.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:47 - ID#43349)
Away! To come again some other time
Good night.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:48 - ID#343449)

scalped some cacti and green tea leaves last week...
put up one hell of a fight too....

how about sending me some nuggets from your nugget in
the bush? i'll defend their rights and guard them as
though from the tribe....yes...that i'd do...for you...

try not to bite your tongue when och'ing the nooooooooooooo..


buying more gold and crude calls this coming
you the big-top show...

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:55 - ID#261304)

Anyone have a oil stock blue chip??
I am looking for the NEM.. of the oil that moves with the commodity price??

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:56 - ID#206235)
@ PH in LA.... Enough...Don't bring on another bandwidth wasting pissing contest
PH, I never shy from debate on Gold, stock, economic, et al issues with Kitcoites who have diverging viewpoints. In your case however, I quickly tire of meaningless and pointless posts which attempt to rewrite Kitco history......

Anyone who has been on the forum for any length of time, remembers Farfels "Short squeeze is taking place and we'll see a huge run up in the next 2 to 3 days" posts. I shan't go back and do hours of research for you if you can't find them.

As to ANOTHER, let me say again for the 80th time, he said in March that a "Major purcahse now is sending a new signal...bring Gold back to the $320 to $360 level....this will be hard...crush to cover...all out run to infinity by year end..." etc.

Many of us questioned his credibility on this "insider" info. After being prompted by his legion of disciples, ANOTHER allowed as how the "Big purchase" he had referred to in advance, was the subsequently announced Belgian sale of 300 tons. A sale that it turns out later...was scheduled to take place over several years... ( and has now been cancelled altogether ) .

The "crush to cover" never took place. The "All out run to infinity" has 3 months left to occur. It WON'T occur. The alleged 400 ton short position by LTCM is once again, false rumor that you USAGold/ANother cultists eat up with a spoon.

Personally, I'm in Gold. I'm stayiong in Gold. I'm in silver. Staying in silver. I'm in mining shares. Staying in mining shares. I'm out of mutuals. Staying out of mutuals till I see 7000 DOW or so, or U.S. economic conditions drastically change. Stop your pointless attempts to restate everything I ever say here in order to better serve your Clinton / Farfel worshipping agenda.

As to your reposting, and your continued attempts to bait me over the past few days..which I have tried hard to ignore till now.......may I remind YOU of a few previous statements by someone named PH in L.A. My comments are in paranthesis....I'd love it if you'd pay PARTICULAR attention to the first two immediate posts below so we can determine whether you have any credibility at all

* "Well, LGB, I guess this is it! Time to bid you good-by. I will no longer be reading or responding to your inane and logically deficient posts.

( Uh huh, one could only wish....! )

* "PH in LA ( Did someone say mud? ) ID#225408:
Dear Mr. LGB: Please allow me just this once to violate my own self-imposed prohibition towards addressing you directly long enough to reply to your own spin-filled, distorted interpretation of Mr. Farfel's words.

( mean like when Realistic and I repost his words verbatim? )

* "Take a look at the Spanish peseta for confirmation. Yesterday I posted at USAGold that it has fallen over 7% since August and today it is down nearly another peseta. As I read him, your nemesis Farfel is forecasting that such a fall will impact our markets by turning into a wholesale flight of foreign capital in the near future."

( Now THERE's a currency everyone follows to determine the future soundness of the U.S. dollar and capital transfers...the Spanish Peseta!! ......I got it now PH )

*" Yesterday's rise in Tbills does not by any means prove that they will continue to rise forever."

( Nope..just right now..over the past few weeks....a period in time when *Fword specifically predicted several times they'd collapse due to wholesale flight of foreign investors )

* "As .....said just today: "Booms are always followed by busts". Always have been, always will be."

( Brilliant analysis that....can we also mathmatically infer that the inverse is true..and that Busts are always followed by booms? You can quote me on this brilliant bit of new inverse revelation )

* "By unemployment, Farfel was refering to his own reference to layoffs in the banking and financial sector to avoid bankruptcy.
Insisting that he is addressing the state of the help-wanted ads in your own rocket science industry or your home-town is an excellent example of your usual short-sighted distortions being foisted off on us to further your own agenda."

( I could have sworn Farfel was speaking about mass layoff's leading to a huge drop in 401K plan contributions..since that is what he said...that damned AGENDA of mine again.....the's such a millstone around my neck )

* An agenda which has become more than stale for a long time now. Let me hereby ask you one last time on behalf of many here to desist in your mindless, spin-doctoring attempt to discredit Farfel. Otherwise, you will be treated to reposts of some of your own more mindless and contradictory posts from the past ala REALISTIC."

( Well, please see repost # 1 of yours above. Unless you are a liar as well as the self appointed defender of every word from your hero's Farfel and Clinton ........than why don't we cease and desist from wasting K1 bandwidth and you say whatever you like to me on K2 where it doesn't bother PH? )

* " If you feel you must disagree with the content of Farfel's posts, please feel free to do so. Just spare us the distortions, the spin-meistering and the name-calling. Just in case you were thinking of it, please spare us any mud-slinging too. "

( Gee PH, does anyone who disagrees with your hero's...guy's like Bill Clinton....immediately become relegated to the mud-slinging, name calling, spin meistering status?....Actually I'll decide what is appropriate comment and dissenting view from myself *Fword's posts or anyone else's...only me and Bart will make that final determination.......not you )

* "As I expected, you have once again found it impossible to actually engage in any meaningful debate whatsoever on any level above name-calling".

( Funny PH, I remember making HUNDREDS of Gold, silver, mining share, and U.S. economy related posts here at my views, my own perspective, debating the issues with others who disagree with me.... generally in discourse that was profitable at getting both sides out.....Yet I have still TO THIS DAY...failed to find any original thoughts from YOU on the markets or any of the above issues. Just the usual reposts and rehashes of your guru's.... and personal attacks on anyone who disagree's....... hmmmm )

* "As I said above, I will no longer respond to your stupid remarks. Not because they are in the least bit difficult to discredit. Or because I find them anything but pathetic, rather because it has become a repetitious and boring exercize..."

( Ohh PLEASE PH,.... PLEASE can I count on you just this once to stick with something you say? If not will you at least take it to K2 so others here won't be bothered? Thank you! )

* "exactly what I expected, and expressed to you then, when I bothered to speak in your direction when you appeared here in the first place. You may note that I say "in your direction" rather than "to you". The reason for this intentional choice of phrase is --as I have told you before -- that you do not read and/or understand what others say to you...rather you live trapped inside your own little unoriginal opinions and merely go about braying them unceasingly to the world, as if that fact will make them more believable to yourself. It is sad, actually; and you have my sympathy. "

( What an articulate fellow you are PH )

* "Have you heard anything about LGB? Seems to have disappeared since his DOW 9000 prediction. Sure hope he comes back soon. Can't wait to trash him some more. You know, kick him some more while he's down."

( Funny, sounds a little like *Fword's influence here. Akin to his staements that he will rip out the hearts and kill anyone who disagrees with his views )

* "LGB claims to differentiate between mental patients and men, between a purveyor of false and misleading information and a man, between a coward and a man, frauds and men, etc. Where have we heard that before? Didn't Adolf Hitler make similar distinctions? Between human beings and jews, between homosexuals and humans, between ...."

( Here we go, cheapening Holocaust victimes and genuine moral outrage again by likening anyone who disagrees with you, or makes critical statements about your Gurus as being akin to Hitler.... great logical discourse PH ) .

* "Sex perverts are not men either. And LGB knows the difference between normal sex and perverted sex...that's how he knows he hates the President of the United States of America. Otherwise, would he know? One wonders."

( I have no idea what this means...but I'm sure that you had some point in mind PH )

* "Actually, looking too closely at the words of LGB is embarrassing on so many levels that one is almost always well-advised to refrain from doing so."

( May I heartily invite you, yet again, to take your own advice PH )

* " RJ/Jujube:.... Did catch your reply over on K-1 in which you declared yourself through with the Farfel-thing, asking me why don't I do the same. I hereby agree to do what you seem reluctant to do. I will no longer disagree with you over Farfel, either"

( A commitment you stuck to well...for 10 or 20 seconds. let it go PH, if you insist on reposting *Fword's posts here, than you can expect opinions may be expressed about them.....see in a free society..........well never mind.... )

Just a final note PH.... There are hundreds of posts in my saved archives. I'd hate to clutter up K1 bandwidth by reposting them. So do please, feel free to say whatever you like to me on K2 ....if you INSIST on continuing to violate your self imposed commitment to ignore my posts. Thank you in advance...


(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:57 - ID#348286)
@Now Confirmed, Central Banks playing in Hedge Funds --- What next, Gold Stocks ???
BOI says has nothing to hide on LTCM investment

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of Italy said on Saturday it had nothing to hide on its $250 million investment with Long-Term Capital Management, the U.S.-based hedge fund rescued last month.

``There was nothing unclear in that investment,'' Bank of Italy Governor Antonio Fazio told a news conference after a meeting here of the Group of Seven major industrial nations. ``LTCM had a very high standing,'' he added.

Added Treasury Minister Carlo Azeglio Ciampi: ``I am certain the Bank of Italy will be able to clarify everything.''

Next Thursday, Fazio is expected to explain the LTCM issue to Italy's parliament.

In 1994 the Ufficio italiano Cambi, a body controlled by the central bank which manages Italian foreign reserves, invested $250 million in the hedge fund.

``The Uic invested $250 million in the fund. We have $27 billion in reserves. It was less than one percent. We were lucky: it was a good investment with a satisfactory yield,'' Fazio said.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:58 - ID#206235)
G7...they're trying but will they succeed?
Bundesbank chief sees no revamp of global order

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 ( Reuters ) - Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer on Saturday rejected the concept of a total revamp in the global financial order, embracing instead the idea of fine-tuning the current structure.

Referring to a communique issued after a meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations, Tietmeyer told a news conference: ``You will not find the words 'new architecture' in this.''

``The issue is strengthening of the architecture. We need architects to build up the architecture stably and use it solidly.''

Tietmeyer said radical proposals to prevent volatility on global markets had not been discussed at the meeting of the G7 on Saturday.

Asked specifically whether a French proposal for exchange rate targets on a global scale had been brought up, he said: ``This was not discussed here, it was not brought up by the French. There were other things to discuss and these were discussed.''

Tietmeyer said that a series of proposals that had been agreed at the G7 meeting were aimed at ensuring that the International Monetary Fund could act as a catalyst to resolve crises in distressed countries.

``This was not about capital controls or patent recipes but about having a solid policy as a basis, better crisis prevention through transparency, ensuring that the Fund acts as a catalyst in crises and ensuring that the private sector is also involved and that the Fund has the necessary means at its disposal for this.''

Turning to the issue of outstanding approval from the United States for additional funding for the IMF, he said there were signs that approval could come through soon.

``There are signals that there could be a positive decision soon. I cannot say any more,'' he said.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:59 - ID#202123)
The IMF has made an end run around the United Nations
and is now doing it's dirty work. The new world order is here and very few people see that.

Got gold, got guns, got food, got paper, got real estate--- got GUTS. S**t, it won't make a bit of difference. Everyone who said they will be beside you, will not be. And will you?

And if you do find those who stand beside you, how long will you last.

We are in a completely different world today, and none of the past rules apply.


Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 21:59 - ID#384350)
What I am saying is that when the Canadian Govt needs money it borrows it from the Central bank that just prints the stuff. Sure the Central bank could force the Canadian Govt into default if they thought they could get away with it. If they tried it though there might be more than a few individuals who have read books like "The Creature of Jeckyll Island" or other books on Central Banks. These people could ask that central bankers face charges of fraud, treason, resurrection etc and face capital punishment. It is risky, but I think that is what will happen someday some year maybe many years from now. The Govt will just say we're broke we can't pay our debts, the currency will become worthless and a new Republic will be formed with a new currency, but probably the same system.

Now these Central Bankers just print up paper and slap a number on it, exchange it for interest-bearing Govt notes, then they sit back and collect interest on it. They make 10's of Billions on interest every year on this scam, if not more.

Now think if they had loaned Gold Bars to the Govt and the Govt used this Gold in its day to day spending. Well the Bankers would be worried about getting back their Gold. So in this type of situation where something TANGIBLE is loaned, the loan would be recalled and/or foreclosed.

Under the present system where the notes loaned have no intrinsic value, there is no need for the Govt to ever repay the loan.

It is a scam. The govt says We need taxes to pay for Govt debt. Really taxes are just a way of forcing people to sell their assets ( which eventually end up in non-tax paying foundations - usually banking families, nobility ) and also to keep the common wage slave in bondage.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:06 - ID#206235)
Homestake Mining..... $325 / Oz. theoretical price for determining reserves, 98..
Homestake Estimates Nonrecurring Charges Against 1998 Third Quarter Operating Results
07:34 a.m. Oct 02, 1998 Eastern

SAN FRANCISCO-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Oct. 2, 1998--Homestake Mining Company ( NYSE:HM ) ( ASX:HSM ) announced today that it plans to take several nonrecurring charges against 1998 third quarter results. Based on a review of the carrying values of certain assets in the persistent low gold price environment and the impact of specific operational issues during the third quarter, the Company estimates that it will record noncash charges totaling approximately $167 million after tax ( $188 million pretax ) . These write-downs will have no impact on cash flow from operations.

The most significant carrying value adjustment relates to the Homestake mine in South Dakota. This operation is continuing to implement a revised operating plan that is expected to reduce cash costs to $280 per ounce by the end of 1999. However, due to continuing low gold prices, the Company will use a gold price of $325 per ounce for determining its gold reserves at the end of 1998. On that basis, the Company does not expect to recover its remaining investment in property, plant and equipment at this mine. The total amount of the write-down will be approximately $76 million before tax, which will reduce the carrying value of the mine to zero. In addition, the Company will record a provision for estimated environmental and related reclamation costs of $35 million pretax. These adjustments will have no impact on current efforts at the Homestake mine to reduce production costs to the target level of $280 per ounce.

Complete story link below.... overall production costs of $205 / Oz. , record production in 98, new exploration worldwide with promising ventures in Australia...etc.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:09 - ID#45173)
Gianni Dioro
I'm with you on the effectiveness of G7 actions. The whole is far less than the sum of its parts when it comes to the joint efforts of G7 governments, each of which cannot even agree on the problem in their own nation never mind the solution for the world.

Until two months ago, the US was fighting inflation. Now the US is fighting deflation. Interests are pushing from two directions within the same national economy. Japan heads slowly into the deap darkness with its eyes wide open, politically unable to "solve" the problem. Already the forces of populist isolationism are massing on the border of economic war within the US against the globalists -- the working class agains big money -- so don't expect a quick, decisive battle even in the US. ( The isolationist policies of the 1930s seem irrational in retrospect, but know that even then there were many that warned of the impact but could not negate the short-term political efficacy of these decisions. ) The Europeans are itching for an opportunity to end the dominance of the dollar in the world ecomony. Their generals are still fighting the last war. The global economy is not their problem. Greenspan echoed this sentiment not two weeks ago. Fed policy is US policy. The world comes second.

I do not see the makings of a cooperative international solution here, even if the combatants could agree on the problem and the solution, because national interest is percieved to outweigh mutual international interest.

The markets will decide the winner. The price of gold is already telling the story, as is the long bond.

Deflationary forces will proceed unabated, in the full knowledge of the combatants, because the fulfillment of the demise of The Machine is in their nature and cannot be changed. The Machine will be refitted for the next millenium. A new game.

Let slip the dogs of economic war. The strong shall win. The weak shall perish. That is the way of man.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:10 - ID#335190)
FWIW @ USofA Corporations ( Trusts-Monopolies-Combination)[Artificial Being]
1890: The Sherman Anti-Trust Act passed by Congress July 02 curtails the powers of U.S. business monopolies: "Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is hereby declared to be illegal. ( But the new law will have little initial effect )

1907: A U.S. economic crisis looms as a result of drains on the money supply by the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, the demands imposed by the rebuilding of San Francisco following 1906 earthquake and fire, several large railroad expansions programs, and the fact that a late season has tied up farmers' cash.

New York Stock Exchange prices suddenly collapse March 13, a July 4th address by Princeton University president Woodrow Wilson ( U.S. Pres. 1913-1921 ) urges an attack on ILLEGAL MANIPULATIONS of FINANCIERS rather than on CORPORATIONS, and President Roosevelt ( Theodore ) attacks "MALEFACTORS OF GREAT WEALTH" in a speech August 20.

1911: The Supreme Court breaks up John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil Company trust May 15, ruling in the case od Standard Oil Co. of N.J. v. United States, but the court rules only against "unreasonable" restraints of trade where a company has "purpose or intent" to exercise monopoly power in violation of the Sherman Act of 1890. ( The Trust is reorganized into five separate corporations plus some smaller ones. )

1915: The State of Delaware begins revising its CORPORATION LAWS to adopt "suggestions" forwarded by New York lawyers. New Jersey has had the lion's share of CORPORATE CHARTERS and has been called "the Mother of Trusts" but President Wilson has persuaded New Jersey legislators to outlaw a series of abusive practices, the New York lawyers recognize that CORPORATE FRANCHISE taxes will be valuable to a state as tiny as Delaware, and that state's lrgislators LIBERALIZE their laws to attract CORPORATIONS which will soon make Delaware the leading CHARTERER of the largest industrial CORPORATIONS.

1919: A Wall Street boom in "war baby" stocks sends prices to new highs. Baldwin Locomotive is up 360 percent over 1917 levels, Bethlehem Steel up 1,400 percent, General Motors up 940 percent.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:15 - ID#258269)
American Eagle
The American Eagle composition: 91.67% gold, .3%silver,
5.33% copper.

Weight 33.931 grams, net weight one oz. fine gold.

Everytime you buy an American Eagle you get an extra
15 cents worth of silver free.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:15 - ID#20768)
BG, Savage

BG: We, all of us on this forum, should be cheering Newmont on! I hope many here own this powerful mover. To make over 100% in one month with a major is wonderful. Unfortunately, Newmont does not fit my method, or I believe that I may have bought some, possibly near the bottom.

I did get lucky with two purchases made during the asymptotic spike down which took place between 8/28 and 9/1. The entire ASL position was purchased at 5-5/16 and 40% of CCH at 1/4. My bones were sure that was the bottom, but I did hesitate to buy more. Of course, I was also out of money! ; )

Savage: That's a great idea. I'll be looking into it.

Thank you both!

Bob in DC

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:17 - ID#45173)
Royal Dutch Petro. I'm hanging onto it for now.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:21 - ID#202123)
A good 75% of the brains that float around the internet
are here on this site and yet, the trees are still to close to their eyes. Step back and look at the forest.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:22 - ID#45173)
I know you're off to sleep for the night. Let's pick it up again tomorrow. I'd like to know more about debt market panics. I know so little about them, the history, what gets them started, the short- and long-term impact.

Haven't heard an update on your wife lately, either. I hope she's well.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:25 - ID#263379)
@ Realistic...PH in LA reposts
( As properly modified and editied for more factual content.... )

Date: Sat Oct 03 1998 19:18
PH in LA ( ) ID#225408:
Copyright  1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


I sincerely hope you spend a little time congratulating yourself on what is obviously a clever way of expressing yourself. Because fortunately, these reposts are the actual truth. Instead of phony hypocritical deceptive lying of *Fspot and myself...., they demonstrate the perspective of your thought...the utter truth. As opposed to the utter dearth of imaginitive thought that I myself express when I fail to EVER give any original information or perspective on anything market related.

In fact, in this real world, most of us knee jerk liberal Clinton and Farfel defenders, do think one thing one day and the same thing the next....regardless of evidence to the contrary.

This is an inevitable part being subhuman and of not seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in honesty and facts is pleasant to behold. And it is whining by me to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain and prove and oh you're attacinbg my hero's again?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Facts matter! Words matter! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment has little to so with what Spinmesitering Propagandists like *Fspot and *Puetz pretend to claim they think in all sincerity another.

Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!" Of course in the case of my failed Guru's, such intellectual honesty doesn't exist.

Why not consider working up some stronger material? Like the posts I always make on my own market perspective? Ooops, I forgot...I never make any..just parrot what my Guru's and liberal Govt. daddies say.

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it! I don't!

These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC to ignore the demented ramblings of PH, whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

PS. REALISTIC: Don't be too dis heartened by anything LGB says. He doesn't seem to be able to recognize an intelligent comment from me when he sees one. Ooops, maybe he never HAS seen one!

PH in LA ( as properly modified and edited for more truthful content )

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:25 - ID#412286)
You have a company that has significant debt but appears to be in no apparent immediate trouble. However, the Investor relations group stops taking calls and goes to a recording update as opposed to speaking with investors personally. The new mine they have undertaken appears to be working as expected. There statements re the mine are everything is going as expected. My question is why would Investor Relations people want to avoid customers. My guess is something big is going to happen and they ( investor relations ) do not want to have to answer. Is it BR, a major restructuring, or a takeover. THEE QUES TO ALL is under what circumstances in this GOLD INDUSTRY would THE Investment Relations group NOT want to talk directly with Investors. OPINES WOULD BE VALUED!!

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:30 - ID#432157)
Hedge Funds

I am surprised that there is not more discussion on Hedge funds and how long they can hang on before they must square there position.Also surprised that the lenders are not getting nervous about collection of the money they have lent and/or the value of the applicable collateral.

Come on guys jump in with your analysis. This is a topic we can all enjoy---YES or am I off base ?????Again.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:34 - ID#45173)
The world is completely different than it was 50 years ago. A man awaking from a 20 year sleep would hardly recognise this world for the earth that he last saw. But men are still men, money is still money, nations are still nations, etc. The economic system is remarkably the same, but in the Information Age it is now a high-gain system. In the Industrial Age, an economic lever caused a slow change in the machine. Now the change is very fast indeed.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:42 - ID#384350)
correction, ROR
in my 21:59, I meant insurrection not resurrection.

ROR, on a more positive note, it could be that investor interest by little people could be getting so great that the company doesn't want to or can't cope with overwhelming investor interest.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:43 - ID#45173)
G'Nite all
Thx for putting up with a second posting of the Greenspan Greenback.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:47 - ID#202123)
EJ: People will always be a unique factor and survivers of whatever will
happen. But other things are changing more rapidly then what most people on this site realize.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 22:54 - ID#202123)
Whoops. Sorry EJ. Will talk again.

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:15 - ID#20767)
BG: Some Oil sites .........

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:17 - ID#335190)
"increased urgency"-"intensified cooperation"-"everything sensible"-"explore"-"architecture"
October 3, 1998

FOCUS-G7 offers action but few details on crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Major industrial nations agreed Saturday they face a risk of economic slowdown due to the financial crisis gripping Asia and other emerging markets and talked about the need to boost growth in Europe and Japan.

But the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven rich industrial nations offered no concrete plans for coordinated interest rate cuts or other policy actions.

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer rejected the concept of a total revamp in the global financial order, embracing instead the idea of fine-tuning the current structure.

Referring to the G7 statement, he told a news conference: "You will not find the words 'new architecture' in this."

"The issue is strengthening of the architecture. We need architects to build up the architecture stably and use it solidly."

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:20 - ID#335190)
"increased urgency"-"intensified cooperation"-"everything sensible"-"explore"-"architecture"
October 3, 1998

FOCUS-G7 offers action but few details on crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Major industrial nations agreed Saturday they face a risk of economic slowdown due to the financial crisis gripping Asia and other emerging markets and talked about the need to boost growth in Europe and Japan.

But the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven rich industrial nations offered no concrete plans for coordinated interest rate cuts or other policy actions.

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer rejected the concept of a total revamp in the global financial order, embracing instead the idea of fine-tuning the current structure.

Referring to the G7 statement, he told a news conference: "You will not find the words 'new architecture' in this."

"The issue is strengthening of the architecture. We need architects to build up the architecture stably and use it solidly."

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:21 - ID#335190)
"increased urgency"-"intensified cooperation"-"everything sensible"-"explore"-"architecture"
October 3, 1998

FOCUS-G7 offers action but few details on crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Major industrial nations agreed Saturday they face a risk of economic slowdown due to the financial crisis gripping Asia and other emerging markets and talked about the need to boost growth in Europe and Japan.

But the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven rich industrial nations offered no concrete plans for coordinated interest rate cuts or other policy actions.

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer rejected the concept of a total revamp in the global financial order, embracing instead the idea of fine-tuning the current structure.

Referring to the G7 statement, he told a news conference: "You will not find the words 'new architecture' in this."

"The issue is strengthening of the architecture. We need architects to build up the architecture stably and use it solidly."

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:22 - ID#335190)
"increased urgency"-"intensified cooperation"-"everything sensible"-"explore"-"architecture"
October 3, 1998

FOCUS-G7 offers action but few details on crisis

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Major industrial nations agreed Saturday they face a risk of economic slowdown due to the financial crisis gripping Asia and other emerging markets and talked about the need to boost growth in Europe and Japan.

But the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven rich industrial nations offered no concrete plans for coordinated interest rate cuts or other policy actions.

Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer rejected the concept of a total revamp in the global financial order, embracing instead the idea of fine-tuning the current structure.

Referring to the G7 statement, he told a news conference: "You will not find the words 'new architecture' in this."

"The issue is strengthening of the architecture. We need architects to build up the architecture stably and use it solidly."

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:26 - ID#284255)
J Stack
A "crash" scenario has become less probable, while odds of a more
traditional bear market and recession are rising. If we are going to see a
Crash, it should occur within the next 4 weeks and within a few days after
the DJIA decisively breaks the 7500 support level.
We believe a U.S. recession is now over a 50% probability in 1999. As you'll
see in this week's issue, it wasn't the dip in consumer confidence that's
the problem. It's the plunge in future expectations. That spread ( future
minus present ) invariably leads recessions, and it's now fallen to the most
negative reading in its 30yr history.
More obvious is the hedge fund unwinding. With leverages of 40:1 and higher,
these will take many months to unwind to acceptable levels for a possible
U.S. recession. Because these funds had such leveraged bets ( all in the same
direction ) they'll likely exacerbate the following markets: they'll widen
the yield spreads between Treasuries and junk bonds, they'll tend to push
gold high ( hedge funds made big bets on DEflation ) , they'll push the Dollar
downward ( unless the global crises spreads faster than the hedge funds can
unwind ) .
As strange as this may sound... inflation is still a major concern. We have
the tightest labor market in 30yrs with average hourly earnings rising near
the fastest rate in 15yrs. Money supply growth is at double-digit levels.
And leading inflation gauges from both ECRI and CIBCR have been edging
higher over the past couple months. This explains a lot in the strength of
gold, and it argues AGAINST betting one's portfolio heavily on the bond
market ( and lower interest rates ) .

From a technical standpoint, this week reinforced our bearish conviction -
in spite of easing by the Federal Reserve. First, the easing was token ( only
1/4% and NOT in the Discount Rate ) . That's less than we expected on last
weekend's update, and shows dissent within the ranks of the FOMC. Second,
our Negative Leadership Composite has remained locked at -100 ( showing
maximum bear market "DISTRIBUTION" ) through the best rally attempts of the
past month. The DJ Transports ( which triggered the original "Dow Theory"
sell signal in early August ) are already hitting new lows. So is the Nasdaq
Advance-Decline Line. That A-D Line PLUS the Russell 2000 Index fell every
single day this week - including Friday's 150pt bounce in the DJIA.
It's a secular bear market; it's slowly grinding investors to bits; and the
bottom-fishers ( or buy-on-dippers ) have to be running out of sidelines cash.
To top it all off, we found another bear in dumpster Tuesday night - just
before this latest break ( and THIS one's bigger than the first 2 combined! )

BONDS - All 4 bond models remain positive. But we'd be careful about adding
to longer-dated issues. Ironically, any signs of global stability could
suddenly send bond yields up a half-point - and bonds tumbling. We favor
short-to-intermediate Treasuries ( up to 2 years ) for those concerned about
rates falling if a recession is indeed imminent.


(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:36 - ID#284255)
Dow - 1932 - 1998 - log chart

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:39 - ID#219363)
US Markets
Some of the things I've been hearing about the markets is definitely deceiving. One "myth" has to do with the markets even being down that much, and it reads something like this: Stocks are over-sold, most are down 20-40% from their highs, the financials have been devastated, etc. I think we should keep in mind that though some of these stocks are down, they have a LONG way go to to be at any "normal" valuation. An example would be a banking stock that I just looked at - sure, it's down to 90 from 180, that's a fifty percent hit, sounds horrible, sounds like it has bottomed. But even being down that hard, it's still trading at a P/E of 12, and that's with it's earnings at a near historical high. Even that doesn't sound convincing, so let me put it another way - as much as this stock has been "devastated", certainly more than most stocks, it's still only been knocked back to it's trading price in January of 1997. That's right, as long as this bull market has been running, the most destroyed stock I could think of amidst the large companies is only back to January of 1997 levels. If it's earnings get revised down-ward, it could get cut in half again, and again, and again. This market has been so over-valued for so long, people don't even know how to find a fair value for a stock anymore, especially in the face of falling corporate earnings.

The Hatt
(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:45 - ID#294232)
Gold will give us direction!!!!!!
It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the World Economy is in a serious crisis! The attempts of Governments around the World to hide the truth has made things worse. The degree of manipulation of the Dow will backfire at some point soon as the average investor comes to understand that he or she have been the focus of a CON JOB! All one has to do is study the sequence of events leading up to the bailout of LTCM and their creditors. The analysts are walking a fine line between charges of CONFLICT OF INTEREST and out and out FRAUD! CNBC keeps showing the public one year charts instead of five to ten year charts which would be quick to point out the fact that the Dow 9000 is an anomoly and the potential for downside here is far greater than expected. Our trusted financial institutions have taken lessons from the President on how to spin a story as they continue to LIE ABOUT THEIR EXPOSURE TO HEDGE FUNDS!
The war on Gold continues as Greenspan and Rubin understand that a sharp rise in the POG will only force the truth out quicker as to the severity of the currency crisis. It is a repeat of history and it is my opinion that we are about to relive 1929 all over again! Yuppies around the world must have their heads up their asses as the elite line them up for greatest ponzi game in history. The liquidity problems have sent the small caps reeling and at the same time moved into the junk and corporate bond arena! The Dow is next and the air will become very thin under the market as it breaks the 7400 level... These manipulated rallies will be short lived as even the traders are beginning to admit that these moves are meaningless to the overall picture. Gold will liftoff soon but not until the next shoe drops and to quote Greenspan there are literally hundreds of shoes around the world just waiting to drop! JUST ONE MANS OPINION!~

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:54 - ID#30126)
The Hatt
So are you saying that you expect gold to fall back before rising?

(Sat Oct 03 1998 23:57 - ID#284255)
Greenspan Speaks in English. Crisis Has to Be Imminent

James Grant recently described Greenspan's language as central bankers' Esperanto. But today, in his testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services, Greenspan spoke in something approaching English. He used the phrase, "fire sale." That describes the looming crisis quite well.

When he speaks in English, the economy is in big trouble.

Grant had warned: "Should Greenspan be telling the market where fair value should be? No. But people have come to take him as the J.P. Morgan of the day--the leader of the financial markets." As if reading Grant's script, Greenspan today invoked the legend of J. P. Morgan in the 1907 "bankers' panic." But he neglected to mention that Morgan's personal intervention stalled the decline of the market for only a few days, and the 1907 panic was so great that its aftermath was the creation of the Federal Reserve System, which was supposed to end panics.

Greenspan made it plain that the FED-orchestrated big bank bail-out of Long Term Capital Management was mandatory if a panic was to be avoided. Why? Because of investors' fear.

"Fear, whether irrational or otherwise, grips participants and they unthinkingly disengage from risky assets in favor of those providing safety and liquidity. The subtle distinctions that investors make, so critical to the effective operation of financial markets, are abandoned. Assets, good and bad, are dumped indiscriminately in circumstances of high uncertainty and fear that are not conducive to planning and investment. Such circumstances, were they generalized and persistent, would be wholly inconsistent with the functioning of sophisticated economies supported by long-term capital investment."

It's an amazing thing about fear. People get scared.

Problem: there's a lot more where that came from. There are many hedge funds, many derivatives.

There will be fewer in a year.

There will be none in two years.

This is just the first phase of the crisis. Y2K has yet to hit the public's consciousness. But, as Greenspan says here, psychology makes a difference. A climate of fear can topple whole systems. As William McDonough, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank ( THE regional Federal Reserve Bank ) , told the committee, in early August, the climate of investors' opinion was different. It was the new climate that made the bail-out mandatory.

The "irrational exuberance" to buy will soon become the rational exuberance to sell. Nobody gets really upset when the public is irrationally buying. Everyone will get upset when the public is rationally selling.

People have ignored y2k because the stock market has been rising. As the world economy sinks into depression ( not recession ) , people will look ahead to 2000 and think, "maybe there is something to this." They will be correct. There is a great deal to it.

When it comes to fear, we have barely scraped the surface. Wait until September, 1999. Wait until December 31, 1999. Wait until January 7, 2000.

And then conditions will start getting really serious.

* * * * * * * * *

. . . In our dynamic market economy, investors and traders, at times, make misjudgments. When market prices and interest rates adjust promptly to evidence of such mistakes, their consequences are generally felt mostly by the perpetrators and, thus, rarely cumulate to pose significant problems for the financial system as a whole. Indeed, the operation of an effective market economy necessitates that investment funds committed to capital projects that do not accurately reflect consumer and business preferences should incur losses and ultimately be liquidated. What value is left needs to be redirected to profitable uses--those that more accurately reflect market preferences. By such winnowing of inefficiencies, productivity is enhanced and standards of livings expand over time.

Financial markets operate efficiently only when participants can commit to transactions with reasonable confidence that the risk of nonpayment can be rationally judged and compensated for. Effective and seasoned markets pass this test almost all of the time. On rare occasions, they do not. Fear, whether irrational or otherwise, grips participants and they unthinkingly disengage from risky assets in favor of those providing safety and liquidity. The subtle distinctions that investors make, so critical to the effective operation of financial markets, are abandoned. Assets, good and bad, are dumped indiscriminately in circumstances of high uncertainty and fear that are not conducive to planning and investment. Such circumstances, were they generalized and persistent, would be wholly inconsistent with the functioning of sophisticated economies supported by long-term capital investment.

Quickly unwinding a complicated portfolio that contains exposure to all manner of risks, such as that of LTCM, in such market conditions amounts to conducting a fire sale. The prices received in a time of stress do not reflect longer-run potential, adding to the losses incurred. Of course, a fire sale that transfers wealth from one set of sophisticated market players to another, without any impact on the financial system overall, should not be a concern for the central bank. Moreover, creditors should reasonably be expected to put some weight on the possibility of a large market swing when making their risk assessments. Indeed, when we examine banks we expect them to have systems in place that take account of outsized market moves. However, a fire sale may be sufficiently intense and widespread that it seriously distorts markets and elevates uncertainty enough to impair the overall functioning of the economy. Sophisticated economic systems cannot thrive in such an atmosphere. . . .

The price gyrations that would have evolved from a fire sale would have reflected fear-driven judgments that could only impair effective market functioning and generate losses for innocent bystanders. . . .

It was the judgment of officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who were monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis, that the act of unwinding LTCM's portfolio in a forced liqudiation would not only have a significant distorting impact on market prices but also in the process could produce large losses, or worse, for a number of creditors and counterparties, and for other market participants who were not directly involved with LTCM. In that environment, it was the FRBNY's judgment that it was to the advantage of all parties--including the creditors and other market participants--to engender if at all possible an orderly resolution rather than let the firm go into disorderly fire-sale liquidation following a set of cascading cross defaults. . . .

But is much moral hazard created by aborting fire sales? To be sure, investors wiped out in a fire sale will clearly be less risk prone than if their mistakes were more orderly unwound. But is the broader market well served if the resulting fear and other irrational judgments govern the degree of risk participants are subsequently willing to incur? Risk taking is a necessary condition for wealth creation. The optimum degree of risk aversion should be governed by rational judgments about the market place, not the fear flowing from fire sales. . . .

Fifth, how much weight should concerns about moral hazard be given when designing mechanisms for governmental regulation of markets? By way of example, we should note that were banks required by the market, or their regulator, to hold 40 percent capital against assets as they did after the Civil War, there would, of course, be far less moral hazard and far fewer instances of fire-sale market disruptions. At the same time, far fewer banks would be profitable, the degree of financial intermediation less, capital would be more costly, and the level of output and standards of living decidely lower. Our current economy, with its wide financial safety net, fiat money, and highly leveraged financial institutions, has been a conscious choice of the American people since the 1930s. We do not have the choice of accepting the benefits of the current system without its costs. . . .

For so long as there have been financial markets, participants have had on occasion to weigh the costs and, especially, the externalities associated with fire-sale liquidations of troubled entities against short-term assistance to tide the firms over for a time. It was such a balancing of near-term costs and longer-term benefits that presumably led J.P. Morgan to convene the leading bankers of his age--both commercial and investment--in his library in 1907 to address the severe panic of that year. Such episodes were recognized as among those rare occasions when otherwise highly effective markets seize up and temporary ad hoc responses were required. . . .