October 3, 1998

Turkish military launches new incursion into northern Iraq

ANKARA, Turkey ( AP ) -- About 10,000 Turkish soldiers have crossed into northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels, and the government said it might send forces into Syria to eradicate guerrilla bases there, news reports said Saturday.

Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq on Friday followed two days of airstrikes against suspected rebel bases, the daily Hurriyet said.

Turkish Kurdish rebels fighting for autonomy in southeastern Turkey wage cross-border raids from camps in Iraq, Iran and Syria. The Ankara government accuses Syria of aiding the rebels, a charge Damascus denies.

Turkey warned the Syrian government Friday that its "patience was running out," and Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu, chief of the general staff, has described the mounting tension with Syria as "an undeclared war."

Fuelling tension between the two countries are Turkey and Israel's expanding military and diplomatic ties. Syria claims the ties are a threat to the Arab world, and on Saturday, Damascus again accused Turkey of plotting with Israel to undermine Syria.

The Turkish-Kurdish war has killed more than 37,000 people since 1984.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Turkey-Syria-Attack.html

Note:
Sorry, about the multi-posts.

And then you look at all the global indices.
Europe looks like it has sustained the crash of 1929/1987
Asia looks the same.

Everywhere global indices are down from 20% to 50% to 70%
Already.

Seems the US is going to be importing a lot of deflation.

Seems the US is going to keep the rest of the world on tenderhooks till it's all over.

Don't hear that much about jewelry being an investment here, but I saw something today that makes me want to ask about it. I was at a mineral show and ran across the most beautiful piece of jewelry. It was 23k gold, "hand made", and from Thailand. Had the most gorgeous yellow color to it, was heavy of course, a bracelet with another piece that was some sort of necklace. Anyway - after talking to the merchant in what amounts to his tent at the edge of the carnival, he started telling me about the items, said they were a traditional style in Thailand and that they were more fragile than the items women in the US are accustomed to. The basic design was very fine strands of gold woven together with delicate looking gold-work besides. Anyway, appreciate any pointers gold-bugs have to this kind of jewelry, I'd love to purchase some with which to adorn my belover'd. Any additional information appreciated.

Yes

And same for Y2k panic selling.

Does anyone have any info on GSR.

All I know is the DOW hasn't even visited it's October 97 levels, much less anything lower. Heaven forbid we go back in time to January of 1996 when the DOw was sitting at 5000. Your chart is very revealing and drives home the point, which is, when things begin to cool down, this thing could go all to hell before anyone even knew what hit them. Sitting at the same level we were at last year, with things being much worse than they were last year, makes me feel really confident about my short position.

dow that is.

I wouldn't place too big a bet on the demise of the U.S. economy and it's stock market just yet guys. Remember, in 1987, liquidity was fired up to prop the market and the economy and it worked quite well. We havn't seen a true bear since till now.

And today's U.S. economic fundamentals are much better than they were then, even if world economic fundamentals are not.

Firday's WSJ had articles on industrial prioduction ( up ) , unemployment ( down again, to RECORD levels... ) , real personal income ( at a 30 year high ) , record low interest rates, low inflation, big Govt. surplus ( and yes I understand it's a fiction to call it such being that it's a theft of the social security program that creates it, however, nonetheless, it's the closest to balanced budget in many years ) , high productivity, etc. etc.

A year and a half ago, the market dove to 6700 in April...it quickly made new highs. If the world economy begins to stabilize, and eventually it will, the U.S. stock market has extremely high potential upside moves ahead.
I think we can see more downside before then...but not a lot.

Technical indicators of every stripe indicate an oversold market. Especially the hig htech. sectors. Careful with those derivitive plays. Remember what happened to LTCM with derivitives!

LGB

I have an account there. What kind of information do you need?

As Y2K gets closer I certinly expect gold buying big time but I can also see physical gold and the XAU headed in different directions if confidence in paper gets bad enough. If paper confidence gets that bad won't the bond market already be in a panic ?

"........Quickly unwinding a complicated portfolio that contains exposure to all manner of risks, such as that of LTCM, in such market conditions amounts to conducting a fire sale.........."

COMPUTER MODELS, once established sourcing "real time" databases, have a tendency to be beyond the control of their makers. Hence, "quickly unwinding......." the computer model may in actual fact be more complicated than the portfolio they represent.

If one is set up on derivatives, could this be a case of "gamblers ruin... one more throw of the dice, one more hedge position ?!

8 000 tonnes of gold, is 250 000 000 ounces gold, is 125 times the annual production of the largest gold mine in the world, and at this time is worth US$ 75 000 000 000 ( ....alot of money... )

Now if this is the actual amount of gold shorted on the derivatives market, and if over the last year certain Hedge Funds have used "their gold proceeds" to invest in a diminishing market and still have to deliver "their" short gold............SH*T is going to hit the fan.....

It certainly is going to be a fire sale, even at todays US$ 300 per oz gold price..............the "Bhouys in London" sure are going to make a killing.......

GOLD, GOLD, GOLD..............going, going, going..........UP !

Now, anyone want to buy a gold mine............seriously !!!

Och aye the nooooooooooo

Haggis

I just bought about 1,000 shares. How is the management and the
Cash? How long have they been around? Is it a good buy at $2.00
per share

Correct enough, Economic fundimentals are not the problem, It's the Stocks fundimentals. The stock market is not in danger from the economy. The economy is in danger from the stock market and the global margin call.

The central Banks have only allowed a credit position to be taken out on the gold, they have NOT actually allowed the GOLD to leave their vaults.............could this be the "con" of the centuary ??

Further more, the Central Banks are closely asssociated with the interests of Rothschild, who sets the gold price daily in London.

If you hold the gold, and do not intend to sell the gold, a low gold price does not matter - especially if you set the price daily. It is helpful if you are "buying up the gold market" !!!

Och aye, the Bhouys have pulled a swift one......

GO GOLD......

When you said GSR, I thought you meant the Gold & Silver Reserve ( http//:www.e-gold.com ) . They have a 100% gold backed payment system that I use and am pleased with. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Agreed, you certainly can't count on it going lower, and I'm not calling crash or anything like that. I do, however, believe it's a possibility. From the beginning of the century until about 1960 the market traded at under a thousand. Okay, so what, that's ancient history and nobody cares, least of all me. Then from about 1960 until 1980 the market traded at about 1000 even, again, so what. Then from 1980 until 1990 the market went into a bull and advanced an amazing 2000 points to about the 3000 level, wow! Amazing gains, never happened in the entire 50 years before then. But here's the kicker, and I know I'm beating a dead and buried horse - in the past eight years, the DOW has went from the 3000 level to 9000, triple it's 1990 levels, nine times it's 1980 levels. Now I know we've went global and the economy is better than it has ever been, and I know I sound like every bear to ever write about this bull market, but is there any rational way to explain a market at these levels ? The population hasn't changed that much, nor have the nature of markets. I'm all about the US economy and have made tons of money on the bull market, but I'd never say this thing couldn't drop to 4000 or even lower, and I'd never say it couldn't crash if it heads in that direction. I've got bets out on a market crash - not because I think it WILL crash, but because markets HAVE crashed, and if the US market were going to do it, I see no better time than the present. For me, it's worth the gambling money, because if we did crash, it would be the trade of the century. If we go up, and things degenerate some time in the future and the circumstances again look good, I'll do the same thing all over again.

Envy
make no mistake, there are many dodgy jewellery rip-offs both East and West. If you have little experience, like I, you will need to get an assay kit ( a digital scale is also a v good idea ) and learn how to use it. Go into many jewellery stores, look and lift, look and lift. After a while you will get the feel. But you have to watch out for cunning tricks, like plating thick enough to fool an assay scrape, or links away from the clasp being of different Kt.

As to price? rule of thumb says spot + a bowl of rice if you buy in Thailand. Funny this, I said over lunch to Beautiful Jewel a short time ago that we should go to Thailand to buy some necklaces and bracelets, after I had just looked at a 65gm 9kt necklace for NZ$1590, say US $795.AND it was "on sale" from $1950 ( yeah sure ) You will need to be able to mentally calculated the amount of gold and the jeweller's margin before you let yourself loose in a gold jewellers shop. What was his margin here?

One other point, while you may calculate the no. of gms or ozs of gold in the necklace you should also remember that at 9kt the expensive trinket will need to be smelted, so any refiner would deduct a refining cost, Bart could tell you his costs....


BTW
While 9999 gold is 24K, 24K gold is not necessarily 9999.


Anyone elaborate?

Same ponci game they've play with debt.

And it's all ready to come tumbling.

I have a feeling they're going to have to pull the big guns out real soon.
Drop a few elephants or so.

The implications behind your gold shorts
The speculative debt pyramid
And the fear wave of the sheeple
As Y2k approaches

Make for interesting times.

Got protection - got gold?

Suspicious
Paper's going to burn

Perhaps I misunderstood your comments but the common belief is that the banks have indeed allowed the gold out of their vaults. That it was sold and delivered by the short sellers and is now comfortably beyond recall. Nestled between the boobs of millions of women.

Cherokee's favorite vehicle ( besides the ssm ) is options. If the banks are unable to limit the effects of rampant short covering, a really explosive move could be in the offing. Returning many times the purchase price to the holder.

I have a bunch of these things and am fixing to buy more. The downside is moderate. The IV is still relatively low. Last week the June 00 380s were in the $430 range. I bought the last batch early in July at $180. They will expire early May 00. .... A chance to watch the price for almost 2 years for a few hundred dollars. If the market turns down, obviously sell em. If the market gets an explosive, satisfy yer greed and then sell em. Or sell some and exercise on the rest.

If losable money is available, I can't think of a better time to take the risk. But remember option buyers are losers at least 80% of the time.

Sheller's disclaimer applies.

GSR is touted by Bill Murphy and Frank Veneroso as being one of the best junior gold stocks to own. Bill Murphy believes it could be a $60 to $70 stock in a few years. Good Management and properties. I bought it, unfortunately at $3, which was not the bottom but it may be back there soon.

Earl
Sounds like Paradise.

I have already warned Beautiful Jewel. You see, I walk down the street looking at gold chains and pendants, getting better at spotting a sovereign from 8 feet. Getting better at seeing the good and the mediocre. I've warned her that one day I'm gonna get thumped by an offended escort. Of course, it also gives 'weight' to my pre-packed excuse "I'm just checking out the coin, darling."

Thanks for all the juicy words on buying jewelry. You're right, I don't have any experience and would have to get someone to take a look for me *grin*. Sure was pretty stuff though, different style than I'm used to seeing.

Are we talking about - all Central Banks, certain Central Banks, or Commercial Banks.........

One must reember that I am a GOLD Geologist, with 25 years experience in the industry..........

We are gearing up to produce the REAL THING, GOLD, not paper..

Please e-mail me at swyers@amigo.net
so that I can forward some of the best.

run by Fennel &Bell out of Denver can be owned for less than $2/share...I own several shares...I met with former indep.cpa awhile back & he said thought management were full of hype & promotion...I also met with a couple of the best gold stock portfolio managers in the world and they feel that it will run up to $20 with move up in the POG...do your own DD!!!!!

Prurient interest mascerading as serious commercial inquiry?? It's been done. I seem to recall engaging in such a charade myself. Now and again. But age breeds many things. Among them are a diminishing interest. ...... But say; have you seen any nice ones lately?? Sovs that is. .... {:- ) )

Envy
was it a fine filligree? ( Usually more expensive ) or chunky chain? I like both:

I've seen some fine filligree, I can see a breath-taking African filligree piece in my mind's eye that belonged to my ma.

My sov ring has some nice filligree work that the pawnshop owner had not seen when he sold it to me. The George and Dragon motif is replicated in filligree around the ring on each side of the bezel.

Beautiful Jewel thinks it looks like a pimp's ring, but noone's come up to me and asked to buy her yet.

I have done business in Thailand for a number of years and have info on the Thai gold jewelry. Thai gold is .965 or slightly over 23 karat. As labor is so "cheap" in Thailand the cost of fabrication is not really much. Thai gold is sold in weights of a Baht which is slightly less than one half of an oz. In Thailand the sign of wealth is shown by the wearing of gold jewelry and in the time of need the jewelry is sold to pay the bills. With the devaluation of the Thai money ( also called a Baht, but not to be confused with he gold weight ) from a ratio of 25 Baht per US dollar before July of 1997 and todays exchange rate of about 40 Baht to the US dollar much gold has been sold by the public.
Hope this helps in understanding.

As I understand the serial progression; it's CB to bullion bank to short seller to market to m'lady's cleavage. .... "To market to market to buy a fat pig ...." ...... Sorry for that. Been reading too much Mother Goose to my granddaughter.

Jan 1 1997

POG:Euro=294.135|0.003400||POG:DEM=572.859|0.001746
EURO:USD=0.8331|1.2003||DEM:USD=0.6163|1.6226

POG:USD=353.050|0.002832
===============================
Oct 2, 1998

POG:Euro=251.248|0.003980||POG:DEM=494.331|0.002023
EURO:USD=0.8322|1.2016||DEM:USD=0.6107|1.6374

POG:USD=301.900|0.003312
===============================
The JPY? Oh, that is every bit as interesting!

1/21/97, POG:JPY=41631.7|0.00002402
USD:JPY = 134.630

10/2/98, POG:JPY=40644.8|0.00002460
USD:JPY = 117.920

And the yuan? Better and Better. The "refashioned yen" will meet the
yuan as an equal, facing the Euro. Love these monetary soaps!
Goodnight.

Gandalf
I have friends in Laos who go to Bangkok frequently. They recently asked me how and where to buy gold there. ( they acknowldged that my perdictions were happening ) My knowledge on Bankok is too old to be any use. Could you post the address of an "honest" gold dealer? They have no experience in buying gold, but they can certainly look after themselves in all other respects. TIA

It was very fine chain, hard to describe actually. It was sort of chain made from very fine material, and the bracelet was actually made from a number of these chains bound at various points by some gold work, making about a 3/4 inch wide band around the wrist - it felt like cloth when you held it in your hand. Then on the "top" of the bracelet there was some detailed gold, about the size of an eagle in width across the wrist, but about half has long from hand to arm. Very pretty ornate work on the solid gold piece, I didn't look close enough to see what gave it the colors ( red, blue, etc ) , but it wasn't faceted gems or I would have remembered. Piece probably weight about 3 eagles, fairly heavy, and was running in the 1200$US range. Like I said, very pretty piece. I've seen lots of jewelry though I purchase little, but I was struck by the piece.

What exactly are SDR's or special drawing rights?

Are they like in Geometry when you postulate and say suppose we invent this thing and call it an SDR used to be leveraged over and over again through fractional reserves? There is nothing tangible to draw upon, is there?

Can someone explain in simple English?

that should be--
1/21/97, POG:JPY=41631.7|0.00002402
USD:JPY = 117.920

10/2/98, POG:JPY=40644.8|0.00002460
USD:JPY = 134.630

{:- ( (

SDRer
Gianni's 2:04 is a gift for you. I'll dig something up after dinner if you've not been able to help him.

( watcha doing up so late? )

What is the difference between Impala Platinum's ( IPLA.J ) and AngloAmerican Platinum ( AAPTY ) ??? Best Regards Goldteck.

http://cnn.com/POLL/results/36531.html

it's still early in the poll, but just add together the totals for stocks + mutual funds + "no savings" ...

given this, how good is the economic outlook for the US?

oh. my. now where was that number for that futures broker?

put options! where are my put options?

What the Art of War terms deception the common-law Law calls Fraud.

"Force and fraud are in war the two cardinal virtues."
- Thomas Hobbes; Leviathon; 1651

By their answers,
Others may deceive us.
By the questions we choose to ask,
By the answers we choose to hear,
Ourselves we deceive.

Obsidian - I've already drawn Fed attention. Too many visits to web sites about preparedness, survivalism, militias, gold, guns, food storage, etc. You can bet that a lot of us here have interesting entries in our Federal dossiers. Even more damning activities of mine have been: subscribing to various subversive magazines like American Spectator and National Review, running for local offices on a "less government, more liberty" platform {I lost}, circulating and submitting a petition to my Congressman in March of 1997 {yes 19 months ago} asking him to support the impeachment of Bill Clinton {several dozen signatures but no response}. Yesterday I mailed off a privacy act request to the FBI requesting what they knew about me. THAT'LL get me on a dissident list for sure! I'll let you know.

EARL - Gold leaf {1/10th mm thick} sandwiched between layers of glass or plastic is indeed an idea. At a POG of US$960 one grain = US$2.
I guess you saw my post of 10/3/98 20:07 that details such a one grain trade item.

Obsidian - are you sure that the .995 is okay for London? I was sure that I read it somewhere that London's standard was tougher than COMEX and that it was 99.995 percent or .99995 fine. Is there a link to a verification? If you are correct then the .9999 Maple Leafs and Nuggets/Kangaroos are entirely satisfactory for my "purist" bent.

Judicial Watch has submitted a report to Congress detailing the corrupt and criminal activities of the Clinton Administration. The information in this report comes from testimony given in depositions under oath. If you still have any doubts about the true nature of this administration, then you need to read this. If Congress makes this the focus of the impeachment and trial of Clinton, then the entire Executive Branch of the US is going to be turned inside out and upside down. http://www.judicialwatch.org

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/c.html

I seriously have my doubts as to whether any of these things will work.

1. lower interest rates
... Will the lucky people who are still working rush right out and borrow to by new cars and washing machines just because the interest rate is lower than is was yesterday?
I, personally, am much too scared to saddle my self with more non-productive debt. And I've read somewhere that business, I beleive both in North America and in Asia, already has excess capacity.
2. Increased liquidity
... I doubt the fund manager are goning to be calmed by the interest rate reduction or the phone liquidity. I think I would use any support by the governments to exit any remaining positions I had - i.e. let them take the risk!

The banking and hedge fund situation is being ignored by the G7 - at least publicly. Sure AG talked about bailout of LTCM, but the speculation about the other 1000 funds that may have problems is going to drive much volitility in the near future. I'm personally concerned about closed doors here in Canada - not because I've heard anything but because there is nothing in the news at all. If Japan's banks fell Sunday night, my bank doors could be locked Monday morning! I believe this but no one is talking about it.

Any comments?

I hope the goose lays a GOLDEN egg for your grand daughter.......

This would mean a huge loss of confidence in the US to act in foreign affairs. The scandals are embedded in the entire defense, commerce, and foreign policy establishments.

For George ..
You said ..

"What about the cheap share dillution of Drooy? Ethical? Legal?"

**** What "cheap share dilution" are you talking about? ..
then you said, ***

"If Rangy is anyway connected doesn't that screw that up?"

**** Questions would be easier to answer if
submitted in English"

There were several questions about delisting rangy
and any effects this may have on ADR holders..
Kebbles have talked a lot about winding up Rangy ..
maybe they will .. If so the assets will have to
be distributed to the shareholders OR ADR holders..
In the ADR case .. I can see a problem .. It may
mean distribution of SHARES that are not registered in
the US .. ( presumably like RRS .. and also any options ) .
In order to distribute .. these assets would have to
be SOLD to distribute cash.
Therefore, were I to buy Rangy, I would buy the
shares rather than the ADRs .. In fact the stock is
starting to look interesting .. we have shifted from
sideways movement to up trend on Friday ( this is
only evident from the trading on the JSE in Rand based
Rangy ) .

for ROR and other Kitcorinos ..
ROR asked the following rhetorical question .. at
least I assume it is rhetorical..

"You have a company that has significant debt but
appears to be in no apparent immediate trouble.
However, the Investor relations group stops taking
calls and goes to a recording update as opposed to
speaking with investors personally. The new mine
they have undertaken appears to be working as
expected. There statements re the mine are
everything is going as expected. My question is
why would Investor Relations people want to avoid
customers. My guess is something big is going to
happen and they ( investor relations ) do not want
to have to answer. Is it BR, a major restructuring,
or a takeover. THEE QUES TO ALL is under
what circumstances in this GOLD INDUSTRY
would THE Investment Relations group NOT want
to talk directly with Investors. OPINES WOULD
BE VALUED!!"

Several occasions come to mind where I would not
answer the phone but would use a recorded message..
1. If there were a take over bid ..
2. If earnings were about to come out and there
had been a major shift which should not be
leaked to the market
3. If We were going BR and we didnt want creditors
to know.
4. If I was in a crappy mood.
5. If I was making out successfully with a secretary
during working hours or while on the job ..
so to speak .

For All ..
I believe it was BUgal who is impatient about
Harmony performance .. Keep cool BUgal ..
If you look at a chart of Harmony in Rands you
will see that it has hit about 30 four times this
year ( you dont see this on the HGMCY chart due to
currency effects ) .. thus there is a fierce topside
resistence.
Moreover the stock on a weekly had been forming
a downward elliot pattern .. 30 would form the apex
of wave 4 if wave four were to form .. However IF
30 rands breaks .. then the resistance breaks and
the elliott downward pattern aborts.
Add to this the fact that earning will be out within
a week or two.. I think Harmony is really a $12 stock.
Thus it's a good bet on a risk/reward basis IMHO.

Been watching and listening here about Harmony for a while. Do you mean that Harmony is fairly valued at $12 with Gold at $300? Any estimates of it's value with Gold at $325, $400, and $500? Thinking about grabbing a share or two. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=HGMCY&d=3ms

Haven't seen Kitco this quiet for a long time. The lull before the storm, eh! Will catch y'all later.

whole nasty group of dirtbags goodbye...RICO is the most devastating of all methods employed to prove guilt...it would make sense to allow Klayman to present this evidence instead of Starr...think about it...Starr has been tainted while Klayman is a virtual unknown to the sheeple...when this info starts getting pounded out...with Perot rumblings added into the equation...Hmmmmmmmm...look for gold to rise on these facts alone...

The USA may not get a Republican or Democrat in 2000...I bet they are both terrified of this...yup...

Auric ..
Risk is reduced if you buy it on a break
above $5. Im not really "valuing" it
at 12$ .. but chart indications plus
reserves in oz/share suggest that
level to me .. Its a much better share than
HM any way you slice it.

I am reminded of a now-classic movie called "Network." It was about the news department of a national TV network. The anchor man was a nebbish named Howard Beale. He had the lowest ratings. Then, one night, without warning Beale announced on-screen that in two weeks, he would commit suicide on-camera. His show's ratings began to rise.

During his final weeks, he ranted and raved against all the corruption he could discover. His ratings soared. One night, he told his audience to go to the window, open it, and shout, "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this any more." All over America, millions of people did this. He decided to go on living. He decided to transform America.

But then he began to attack a corrupt deal that some multinational company was doing with the government. This killed the deal. The head of the network called him into the corporate meeting room, closed the drapes, and began a speech. I regard it as the greatest speech in the history of film: the best written, the best delivered. Paddy Chayefsky should have won the Academy Award [TM, copyright, secured in eternity, etc.] for his screenplay for just this speech, not the whole movie, which he in fact won. Ned Beatty should have won Best Supporting Actor and the award retired permanently in his honor. It was one of the classic scenes ever filmed. The speech was the encapsulation of the international Establishment. It began:

"You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale and I won't have it! Is that clear?

"You think you have merely stopped a business deal. That is not the case.

"The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country and now they must put it back.

"It is ebb and flow; tidal gravity. It is ecological balance.

"You are an old man who thinks in term of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West.

"There is only one holistic system of systems: one vast and interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars: petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multidollars, reichsmarks, krona, rubles, pounds and shekles.

"It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today.

"That is the atomic, and subatomic, and gallactic structure of things today.

"And you have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and you will attone! Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale? You get up on your little 21" screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and ATT, and du Pont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.

"What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state? Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions and compute the price/cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do.

"We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corportations, inexorably determined by the inevitable by-laws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime.

"And our children will live to see that perfect world in which there is no war or famine, oppression or brutality; one vast and ecumenical holding company, for which all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will own a share of stock, all necessities provided, all anxieties tranquelized, all boredom...amused."

After it was over, stunned, Beale said, "I have seen the face of God."

He was told to start spouting the Establishment line. He did. His ratings began dropping. He was boring again.

---SOURCE: WWW.GARYNORTH.COM---

"I do not think that we should be introducing restrictions on the dollar at a time when the civilised West is giving us the one-fingered salute," he said. Dollars provide "a kind of guarantee for personal savings", he added.

Russian Director General Interbank Exchange Market-Alexandre Zakharov

Wondering if my pal, August von Finck, is buying Harmony. G'nytol.

October 4, 1998

G7 calls for public funds for Japan banking sector

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The Group of Seven industrialized nations has urged Japan to shore up its fragile financial sector through an infusion of public funds, Japan's finance minister said late Saturday.

Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa told a news conference that the G7 nations urged Japan to establish a framework to maintain the stability of its financial system.

A collapse of the Japanese financial system could risk sending the global economy into a deflationary spiral and worsening a credit crunch.

"The only way to go is to inject a significant amount of public funds," he said.

He said he told Rubin that the financial bills for bank liquidations were passed in the Japanese lower house Friday, and that the remaining bills to boost the capital base of viable banks were unresolved.

http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/GROUP-JAPAN.html

October 4, 1998

"End of an era""-France tells G7 partners

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Strange as it may seem, France sees an upside to the investor panic that has throttled world stock markets since Russia's political and economic meltdown in August.

"It's the end of an era," French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Saturday after financial leaders from theworld's rich nations, the Group of Seven, tried to respond to widening economic and financial markets crises.

"It's the end of the historical debate over market economy versus centrally planned economy ... now what's starting is the debate over liberalization in disorderly fashion versus liberalization in a regulated way," he said.

In the same way that stock markets rose too far in the first half of the year, their recent tumble no longer bore any relation to the "real economy," he said.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/GROUP-FRANCE.html

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangyfuture.htm

7 August, 1998

CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS

RANDGOLD'S FUTURE PROSPECTS

The investment holding nature of Randgold has resulted in a review of the group's future. The primary holding is a 56.8% stake in emerging African producer Randgold Resources Limited ( "Randgold Resources" ) , currently capitalized at around $94 million. The remaining investments following the implementation of the scheme ( the sale of Crown for Durban shares ) will be limited to cash, some small holdings in marginal operators, Durban Deep and Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited and a large portfolio of mineral rights, some 70% of which are the subject of joint ventures with, amongst others, Rio Tinto PLC, SouthernEra Resources Limited and Ashton Mining Limited. The group is rethinking its future and all opportunities are being evaluated with the primary objective being the unlocking of the discount to net asset value at which the Randgold shares trade. An important element to Randgold's future is Randgold Resources, its mine at Syama, and the development of the major gold deposits, Loulo and Morila, in Mali.

Date: Sat Oct 03 1998 19:18
PH in LA ( ) ID#225408:
Copyright  1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

REALISTIC:

I sincerely hope you spend a little time congratulating yourself on what is obviously a clever way of expressing yourself. Because fortunately, these reposts are the actual truth. Instead of phony hypocritical deceptive lying of *Fspot and myself...., they demonstrate the perspective of your thought...the utter truth. As opposed to the utter dearth of imaginitive thought that I myself express when I fail to EVER give any original information or perspective on anything market related.

In fact, in this real world, most of us knee jerk liberal Clinton and Farfel defenders, do think one thing one day and the same thing the next....regardless of evidence to the contrary.

This is an inevitable part being subhuman and of not seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in honesty and facts is pleasant to behold. And it is whining by me to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, and...now you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain and prove and oh you're attacinbg my hero's again?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Facts matter! Words matter! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment has little to so with what Spinmesitering Propagandists like *Fspot and *Puetz pretend to claim they think in all sincerity another.

Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!" Of course in the case of my failed Guru's, such intellectual honesty doesn't exist.

Why not consider working up some stronger material? Like the posts I always make on my own market perspective? Ooops, I forgot...I never make any..just parrot what my Guru's and liberal Govt. daddies say.

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it! I don't!

*******WARNING*******
These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC to ignore the demented ramblings of PH, whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

PS. REALISTIC: Don't be too dis heartened by anything LGB says. He doesn't seem to be able to recognize an intelligent comment from me when he sees one. Ooops, maybe he never HAS seen one!

PH in LA ( as properly modified and edited for more truthful content )

Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03
farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

I have been fascinated that the economy has gone so quickly from one where everyone say no possibility of bad times ahead ( particularly the talking heads that the networks use to make us feel all is right ) to a situation where WJC is talking about how we need to be involved in bailouts to salvage the world economies. Obviously things were never so bright and the Kitco boys and girls saw it first here. Gasoline prices here in Albuquerque have dropped to 85 cents per gallon for regular. That ought to say something. I am still betting on higher gold prices and have invested a rather large sum in gold mutual funds ( as of tomorrow anyway ) . I hope that I don't have to watch it ride gold back to the $270/oz. levels again. I don't think that is going to happen.

BUGal,
Comment on your US economy expectations, "And today's U.S. economic fundamentals are much better than they were then ( after crash of 1987 ) , even if world economic fundamentals are not."

The Fed did everything necessary in 1987 to keep financial institutions from failing. But it takes more than preventing the failure of financial institutions and preventing the loss in confidence in the financial system to make an economic boom. At that same period in history, the world was poised for a major economic expansion. Enormous new markets opened for US goods and services in the former Soviet Union, Asia, and Latin America. A trend of falling inflation, rising industrial production, dropping levels of unemployment, growing real personal income, falling interest rates, low inflation, rising productivity, all created the ideal environment for rising equity prices. Add to that cheap oil and low commodity prices, and not since the end of WWII had the US seen such perfect conditions for expansion.

But now all of these factors are starting to reverse, presaged by a drop in equity prices. The market is expecting a continued reversal of the all of the conditions that made for the ideal market for the past ten years.

I do not expect a stock market crash. I've been long predicting a slow, grinding bear market, as the market prices in the slow deterioration of favorable market conditions. The Fed will not need to do anything dramatic because the drama will unfold so slowly. Confidence shall be lost per Chinese water torture: a layoff here, a bankruptcy there, a real estate price crash in one place, a war in Turkey, an economic collapse in Japan, etc.

The Fed to the rescue to take credit for such a wonderous set of unique circumstances in a subsequent expansion? Not this time. This market will go wherever the world is going.

Envy,
I agree with you.

-EJ

I bgt 5000 shares friday at 21/32/share. I considered it a long term option play with mad money. Your article made me feel much better after some of the downside posts recently regarding rangy.

Thanx,

Pete

Can anyone offer some thoughts as to the future of this stock? This one has been the killer in my potfolio, any thoughts would be appreciated.

"Chainsaw Al" Dunlap, most recently of Scott Paper, when he spoke at a retreat for House Republican Freshmen. Roll Call reported Dunlap's speech:

"This nonsense about the working people," he sneered. "Don't ever apologize for being successful."

Later on ABC's Nightline Dunlap amplified:

"....The reason to be in business is to make money for your shareholders. The shareholders own the company. They take all the risk."

A 1993 press conference held by Claire Giannini, heiress to the A. P. Giannini, Bank of America fortune.

She was moved to call the press conference after current bank management announced record profits and then made public a decision to reduce 8,000 employees from full time status to a nineteen-hour-a-week part- time
status ( one hour a week below the level required for benefit eligibility ) .

Giannini told reporters that during the Depression her grandfather had ordered executives at the bank to take a 20 percent pay cut so that the bank could remain solvent and "the lower ranks could keep their jobs."

An implicit contract existed between the general public and those who owned and managed large corporations throughout the 30 year period following World War II according to Lester Thurow, in an article published in The New York Times Magazine last November.

The essence of that contract was that American corporations would be run for the benefit of all those involved -- shareholders, management, and employees. "A combination of social and legal pressures insured that rising output was shared with the workforce."

But today, according to Thurow: "This implicit contract has been smashed by companies with high and rising profits that are nevertheless reducing wages, eliminating fringe benefits, and permanently laying off hundreds of thousands of workers from what had been society's best jobs."

Thurow also offered the reminder that extreme experiments can create extreme reactions:

"No one has ever tried survival-of-the-fittest capitalism for any extended period in a modern democracy, so we don't know how far rising inequality and falling real wages can go before something snaps."

This country has been grappling for decades with a choice between two types of capitalism. One type views corporations as organizations which are dependent not only on investors and managers but on the workers who make its products and the communities that provide schools to train workers, highways to get products to market, and police and military to protect commerce.

This view holds that corporations cannot be viewed simply from the input of the investor and that corporations have obligations to employees and to the community as well as to their shareholders.

Ultimately, the real economy is somewhat like Monopoly: when all of the money is in one bank account, the game is over. Arthur Schlesinger's description of the "booming" 1920s does not sound remarkably different from the trends we have witnessed in the 1980s and 1990s:

"The central economic challenge was to distribute the gains of productivity in a manner that would maintain employment and prosperity.
By the rules of orthodox economics, the reduction in production cost should have brought about either a reduction in prices or a rise in wages, or both....The price system, so exquisitely sensitive in classical theory, was turning out to be sluggish in practice......As a result, these gains were captured increasingly by the businessmen themselves in the form of profits.

Through the decade profits rose over 80 percent...The increase in profits naturally pushed up the prices of corporate securities...As the twenties proceeded, the stock market sucked off an increasing share of the undistributed gains of industrial efficiency....But the very excess profits which were stimulating the boom were at the same time shortening its life, for the diversion of the gains of efficiency into profits was bound to result in a falling off of the capacity of the people as a whole to buy.

The Mellon tax policy placing its emphasis on relief for millionaires rather than for consumers made the maldistribution of income and oversaving even worse."

For polarbear ..
Please reflect upon my thoughts
on Randy ADR in event of a break up
of assets .. I would not be effected
as I would buy the rand based shares.
But in the US one could be hurt if
they got options and perhaps RRS
since it is not a registered company in
the US .. In these situations these
assets are auctioned off and bought
by guys like me for say 30 cents on
the dollar .. not joking .. In the
deeps/blyvoor/buffels takeover I
bid for a million options at 10 cents
.. they traded a rand and they went
to someone else for 30 cents ..The
guys who bought them worked them
off into the market at an average of
maybe 80 cents. But point is that
they went for a whole lot below the
market value.

What is the difference between Impala Platinum's ( IPLA.J ) and Anglo American Platinum ( AAPTY ) ??? I will like to know the URL of both companies Best Regards Goldteck.

Does any one know where there is a listing if South african Shares and thier dividends. I am look for Some SA'a w/ high cash payments to share holders

WORLDVIEW

Avoiding the American disease

Saturday, October 3, 1998
PETER COOK

Brussels -- Not so long ago, shareholders were in and stakeholders out.
Now the tables are turning. As stock markets fall, North American
shareholders worry about how much money they are losing and whether
there will be a recession. Not so with European stakeholders. They are far
more relaxed.

The idea used to be simple. Companies did best by having one overriding
goal: maximizing the money they made for the people who owned their
shares. That was the way things were in the United States and, to a lesser
extent, Canada and Britain. In the rest of Europe and Japan, the profit
motive was pursued less single-mindedly. Yes, companies should make
money, but balancing their duty to shareholders were obligations to
stakeholders such as their workers ( who might, as in Germany, be
represented on the board ) , suppliers, customers and the wider community.

In the long years of the bull market, much was heard of enhanced
shareholder value. But, since mid-July, as markets have tumbled, many
Americans are beginning to regret the day they umbilically linked their
families' well-being and their hopes of a comfortable retirement to the rise
and rise of Wall Street. Europeans, on the other hand, have never embraced
the equity culture and have always suspected the stock market was a
casino. Their preference has been to keep their money in a bank or in bonds
and count on the ( admittedly dubious ) prospect of a state pension to cover
them in their old age.

A study by investment firm Salomon Smith Barney shows that in 1997, the
average American family had a stock portfolio worth 143 per cent of
disposable income; Canadians had a portfolio worth 85 per cent; Britons had
75 per cent. In the case of Americans and Britons -- but not Canadians,
whose fortunes have been tied to a slower-moving market -- the value of
the family stock holdings have tripled since 1984.

Contrast these new-rich folks with Germans, whose family stock portfolio
was a mere 25 per cent of disposable income, and the French, with 20 per
cent. In another corner altogether stand the Japanese who, in 14 years of
faithful investing, have only lost money.

The implications are clear. When markets fall, Americans and Canadians
and Britons feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend. As a consequence,
they are more likely to pressure their government to do something to help
out and, because of the danger that declines in consumption may cause a
recession, the government or central bank is likelier to oblige. Link that to
what is actually happening and you find that the U.S. Federal Reserve
Board, worried about Wall Street's plunge, has already cut interest rates,
and next in line to do so are Canada and Britain.

This, however, is not judged to be enough. There have been calls from the
International Monetary Fund for the Europeans to help offset global
recession by cutting their interest rates. All indications are that they do not
want to. Base rates, at 3.3 per cent in Germany and France, are anyway
lower, and these two countries, plus nine others, are about to launch a
single currency with a single interest rate. To achieve that rate, some
countries that have higher rates now -- Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland --
will reduce them. Altogether, that will mean a 0.4-percentage-point decline
in the average interest rate -- which will be the extent of Europe's
contribution to curing the world's malaise.

Europeans may avoid the worst of the American disease. Having bet less on
stocks, they have less to lose. And if they want to feel smug they can recall
that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan declared, just six months ago, that "only
free-market systems [like the U.S. one] exhibit the flexibility and robustness
to accommodate human nature and harness rapidly advancing technology to
consistently advance living standards." In Wall Street's carnage, rapidly
advancing technology has been hit harder than utility stocks. So much for
human nature. So much for shareholder value.

But smugness is inappropriate, given what Europe is also losing. In
Germany, as an example, investors were finally beginning to support new
ventures and startups. The Neue Markt -- the local Nasdaq -- arrived just 18
months ago and had begun to sponsor the Bill Gates's of Germany, such as
Gerhardt Schmid, who had managed to turn his Mobilcom telecoms firm
into a $3-billion ( U.S. ) high flier. On the big board, valuations had soared --
so much so that Deutsche Bank, which has a stake in many blue-chip
companies, was in July sitting on a portfolio of other people's shares worth
$23-billion.

No more. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Frankfurt DAX market index
fell 12 per cent, with banks rumoured to be connected to international hedge
funds under fierce attack. At its peak in late July, the index was at 6,171;
yesterday, it opened at 4,094 -- one-third lower.

It is axiomatic that big market falls can be the prelude to recession
anywhere. The dangers, however, are greater in the United States where the
stock market, seen as a refuge for everyone's retirement funds, was hailed
as unsinkable as the Titanic. Europe never went so far -- avoiding, as it
often does, embracing American enthusiasms too eagerly. As a result, it is
doing not-so-badly.

Here is a list of SA ADRs. I'm not sure yet how the bank handling the ADR pays dividends.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.htx?source=htx/dbc

October 4, 1998

Dubai gold bullion, jewellery business subdued

DUBAI, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Dubai gold is losing its glitter as bullion exports to India keep falling and local jewellery sales remain subdued.

Traders said on Sunday a recent rise in gold prices was partly to blame for the lack of demand from India despite the start of the annual festival and marriage season in the world's largest bullion market.

"The market is still very dull," one trader told Reuters. "People had bought enough gold at the beginning of the year when the prices were low," he said.

Prices, which dropped to around $274 an ounce in late August, have since rebounded. International spot gold was last quoted on Saturday at $301.00/301.50 an ounce from $294.00/294.50 a week earlier.

"It's very bad," another trader said when asked about bullion exports to India. "Every day it is worse," he said.

Traders said even jewellery sales, usually brisk at this time of the year when tourists begin to come to Dubai at the end of the hot summer, were also dull."We expected a lot of tourists, but they haven't come yet," one jewellery trader in the Dubai gold souk said.

Traders had been looking for the Indian festival season, following a good monsoon, to revive the emirate's declining gold trade.

The festival season began last week at the end of the nine nights of the Hindu Navratri period with the Dasera celebration of good over evil. That is followed by the main Diwali festival of lights in the third week of October.

In the past few years about 80 percent of gold imports to Dubai were re-exported to the Indian subcontinent. But last year's new Indian regulations liberalising gold imports have bitten into Dubai re-exports.

Dubai imported a record 660 tonnes of gold in 1997. Imports in August stood at 29.57 tonnes, 49 percent down from the 57.50 tonnes imported during the same month last year.

On Sunday, Dubai's benchmark ten tola bar was quoted at 4,163 dirhams ( $1,134 ) up from last week's 4,065 dirhams. A TT bar is 3.746 ounces of 24 carat gold.
( $1-3.67 dirhams )
( ( Gulf newsroom, +971 4 607 1222, fax +971 4 626982, dubai.newsroom+reuters.com ) )

October 4, 1998

FOCUS-Oil majors wind up secretive Venice talks

VENICE, Italy, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Glum oil companies feeling the heat from a global economic downturn gathered for a second day of secretive talks in Venice on Sunday, insisting that such taboo subjects as prices and mergers were still strictly off the agenda.

After Saturday's "vigorous talks" on industry restructuring, oil barons including world giant Saudi Aramco barricaded themselves behind the walls of a Venetian convent away from the glare of the media to conclude their two-day informal assembly.

Participants were quick to squash any hint of anti-consumer conspiracy -- an ongoing industry theme which has been scrutinised by U.S. and European regulatory authorities.

And despite the pressure on revenues from the effects of a slump in prices, this was also a taboo subject for oil barons who were kept in check by the presence of an antitrust lawyer.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/OIL-MAJORS.html

The one good thing about the U.S. of A. is that you can still open the window and shout, even if you are yelling at the top person in the land.

A little north of you in Canada this is not tolerated. Our Kangaroo government uses everything in its power to keep the windows closed. They are afraid of the truth and anyone who wishes to speak it.

I know for fact what I speak as I have been trying to open the window and yell for years.

When you accuse the tax collector of illegal activity and can prove it,it is essential to keep the windows shut to keep the gulibable masses of taxpayers from knowing the truth.

In defiance of government actions, I refuse to pay personal tax and challange Rev. Can. to come and take what I owe them out of my pocket. No takers, I guess they lack balls or are afraid of the truth. Time will tell. There always has been and will always be someone willing to yell, however it is becoming more difficult to open the window.--My handle is picked to inform the lurkers from Rev. Can.--

Good article on the US darwinistic Capitalism. Other countries are resisting this trend. The reason the US is frantic to get others to do the same is so the US does not look so bad in comparison. As a Democratic Socialist I am hopeful that the economic collapse will kill economic neo-liberalism and bring on a new progressive era. Notice how these darwinistic capitalists run to the govt for bailout and help when they run into trouble. Again market discipline for the populace and socialism for the privileged. SICK but TRUE in the US. I think the NDP may be the only progressive party in NA. There are some good people in the US like Sen. Paul Wellstone. Europe and Japan have it right. TYhe elections in Europe already show a move away from the Reagan-Thatcher disaster that neo-liberalism has wrought. Is the world REALLY better off than it was before neo-liberalism. I say NO and time will make this more obvious as the policies and imbalances caused by the corporate economic policies wreak more havoc.

October 4, 1998

Oil stocks, safe haven or bear trap?

At present, investors appear to be putting their money behind the bulls.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/OIL-STOCKS.html

Even LGB can read, he just can't understand. Remember? He's the one who thinks ANOTHER's thoughts are riddles! Still no sign that you have read this, though, so here goes!

REALISTIC:

I sincerely hope you do not spend very much time congratulating yourself on what you appear to think is a clever way of expressing yourself with your nuisance posts. Because unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. Instead of cleverness, they demonstrate the paucity of your thought...the utter dearth of imagination that is yours.

In fact, in this real world, most of us do think one thing one day and something else the next. This is an inevitable part being human and of seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in the human weakness of others is not pleasant to behold. And it is whining to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, and...now you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Things change! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment is not always what that same mind thinks in all sincerity another. Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!"

Why not consider working up some stronger material?

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it!

*******WARNING*******
These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

The SDR is the shadow cast by Banker's hubris; its size, shape and weight formed by the bank ( s ) whose reflection it is. To understand what it is, and what it is not, accept the definitions of "shadow":

The rough image cast by an object blocking rays of illumination.
An imperfect imitation or copy.
A mirrored image or reflection.
A phantom; a ghost.
A faint indication; a premonition.
A vestige or remnant.
An insignificant portion or amount; a trace

Users Guide to SDR
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/FT/usrgsdr/usersc02.htm

Has this been ANY help? {:- )

October 4, 1998

Brazil seen picking Cardoso despite economic gloom

SAO PAULO ( Reuters ) - Brazilians were expected to re-elect President Fernando Henrique Cardoso Sunday by a wide margin despite the grim knowledge that austerity measures and recession are on the horizon.

The Central Bank last month raised interest rates to 50 percent in an effort to woo back nervous investors and the government announced more than $5 billion in new spending cuts. But even these measures failed to impress jittery markets.

"The whole perspective for the economy is deteriorating," said Constantin Jancso, economist at MCM Consultores.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/BRAZIL-ELECTION-ECONO.html

Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high today. ( Dec bonds above 132.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03
farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

Date: Sat Oct 03 1998 19:18
PH in LA ( ) ID#225408:
Copyright  1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

REALISTIC:

I sincerely hope you spend a little time congratulating yourself on what is obviously a clever way of expressing yourself. Because fortunately, these reposts are the actual truth. Instead of phony hypocritical deceptive lying of *Fspot and myself...., they demonstrate the perspective of your thought...the utter truth. As opposed to the utter dearth of imaginitive thought that I myself express when I fail to EVER give any original information or perspective on anything market related.

In fact, in this real world, most of us knee jerk liberal Clinton and Farfel defenders, do think one thing one day and the same thing the next....regardless of evidence to the contrary.

This is an inevitable part being subhuman and of not seeking truth. Your own obvious enjoyment in wallowing in honesty and facts is pleasant to behold. And it is whining by me to constantly assert, "on such and such a day, you said so and so, and...now you say blah, blah, blah...Can you please explain and prove and oh you're attacinbg my hero's again?"

It can only be termed a severely limited mind that demonstrates an inability to comprehend and/or accept one of the most fundamental tenents of the human condition: Facts matter! Words matter! What one thinks in all sincerity one moment has little to so with what Spinmesitering Propagandists like *Fspot and *Puetz pretend to claim they think in all sincerity another.

Without going into too much detail, a myriad of changes are constantly swirling around in each of our own personal environments, and to some extent they cannot help but define and redefine our all-too-human existence. But then, most of us understand what Robert de Niro's character in the movie The Deerhunter said to another whining weakling: "That was then! This is now!" Of course in the case of my failed Guru's, such intellectual honesty doesn't exist.

Why not consider working up some stronger material? Like the posts I always make on my own market perspective? Ooops, I forgot...I never make any..just parrot what my Guru's and liberal Govt. daddies say.

You may recall ( if it was not before your time ) what Walter Pirsig says in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, "The real motorcycle you're working on is the cycle you call yourself."

Think about it! I don't!

*******WARNING*******
These observations will be reposted as a reminder to REALISTIC to ignore the demented ramblings of PH, whenever one of his nuisance posts is observed.

PS. REALISTIC: Don't be too dis heartened by anything LGB says. He doesn't seem to be able to recognize an intelligent comment from me when he sees one. Ooops, maybe he never HAS seen one!

PH in LA ( as properly modified and edited for more truthful content )

Dollar seen under pressure after G7 meeting

By Chikafumi Hodo

TOKYO, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - The dollar is expected to come under increasing downward pressure against the yen after the United States and Japan expressed concerns about the excessive weakness of the yen, Tokyo dealers said on Sunday.

The Group of Seven ( G7 ) industrialised nations said it was of ``critical importance'' to Asia and the rest of the world for Japan to take ``swift and effective'' action in solving its debt-ridden banking sector and economic problems.

While the statement, following the G7 meeting in Washington on Saturday, made no mention of the yen's level, dealers are expected to focus on remarks by U.S. and Japanese officials as well as a deteriorating sentiment towards the U.S. currency, dealers said.

``It's enough to weigh on the dollar after the United States and Japan expressed their concerns about the yen's weakness,'' said Jun Yamashita, manager at Sakura Bank.

``Such an agreement between the United States and Japan was expected, but having confirmed it now, the dollar's gains will be limited,'' Yamashita said.

Both the United States and Japan said on Saturday ahead of the G7 meeting that they agreed to continue cooperating in foreign exchange markets ``as appropriate.''

The G7 nations pledged at their meeting on Saturday to cooperate in the foreign exchange market as appropriate and warned that Japan's economic challenges had ``intensified significantly in recent months.''

Continuing problems in Japan's financial sector and the ailing economy may keep the yen under pressure. But at the same time, the market was not expected to build up dollar positions with more evidence of the U.S. economy slowing down.

The U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by just 69,000 in September, compared with economists' expectations of a gain closer to 200,000.

In addition, the jobs data showed an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent.

``In a trend where further credit easing is likely to take place in the United States, I would not be surprised to see the dollar drop towards 120 yen,'' said Michihisa Tanimoto, foreign bond & forex section manager at Sumitomo Life Insurance.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the key discount rate by a quarter point last Tuesday.

The market is also still not sure of how to measure the magnitude of problems of hedge funds following the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management, dealers said.

Worries of further hedge fund problems may be another drag on the U.S. currency in the longer term, they said.

``Worries over hedge funds still remain intact, which could be negative for the dollar in the long run,'' Sakura's Yamashita said.

In the near term, traders expect Japanese institutional investors to buy dollars around 133 yen, while the U.S. currency is expected to be capped around 137 yen.

Front page: TURN FUND LOSSES INTO TAX SAVINGS

"Unless you had the foresight to move all your money into gold last month, chances are you lost money in the third quarter, the worst quarter for stocks in eight years..."

Article goes on to suggest in detail how investors should sell all of the stox/mutual funds that have gone down and take a tax loss. Of course they will need to sell the gainers to offset this strategy, but hey, less taxes to pay!

No further mention about gold or gold shares. Guess they figured that none of the readers of the L.A. Times would in fact own gold, except for me of course ; )

October 4, 1998

Tense vote starts in embattled Mexican state

OCOSINGO, Mexico, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Voting got underway in Mexico's southern state of Chiapas on Sunday in local elections that threaten to deepen the divide between the warring factions in Mexico's poorest and most violent region.

Chiapas is divided between supporters of the PRI, in power since 1929, and Mayan Indians who back the Zapatista guerrillas and their charismatic leader, known as Marcos. Many others trust neither side.

In Chiapas' last elections in 1997, some rebel backers burned polling stations in several districts where they have set up parallel local governments based on Indian tradition rather than abide by what they believe are rigged polls.

While some 150 people died in the brief initial rebel uprising for Indian rights and democracy in 1994, several hundreds more have been killed in related political violence.

The worst incident was last December's massacre of 45 pro-rebel Indians, mostly women and children, by paramilitaries.

The voting is being monitored by hundreds of Mexican election observers and a group of Canadian parliamentarians.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/MEXICO-ELECTIONS-1STL.html

I logged on to Kitco about twenty minutes ago when the Kitco/backup site thingy was running. After looking at a few posts, I noticed that the "stop light" button was still illuminated.
I suspect the problem might lie with the animated thingy, as I have said before. Why else would Kitco be unavailable at one time, and suddenly come back as if there was nothing wrong?

October 4, 1998

Market seesaw is a balancing act

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- If fretting about the gyrations of the financial markets is starting to wear on your nerves, sit back for a moment and think about the positive things the Wall Street tumult is accomplishing.

As Greg Smith, strategist at Prudential Securities, told investor readers of his market bulletin last week, "Now that you're worried, I'm a little less so."
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Wall-Street-Positives.html

Here's an Elliott Wave count that is much more
bearish for the dollar, if we are now in wave 5
down ( this chart was updated in early September ) :

http://plaza4.mbn.or.jp/~skoike/longterm.htm

Strauss-Kahn defended the G7's latest stand at a Saturday night news conference.
`The G7 is playing the role of the pilot that's needed in the plane,'' he said. But he also gave a sober appraisal of what the G7 could actually do in the near term to restore confidence.

``Flying a plane is not simply about inventing a whole string of new gadgets,'' he said.

Can you imagine our G7 leaders flying the plane? "Where's Capitan Bill at?" asks Chretien chewing on his peppered steak. "Oh, he's in back dispensing cigars to the stewardesses." ;- )

When markets head down, why is it suddenly considered to be a crisis that has to be managed by the world government? When things were going out of control on the upside, not a beep was heard.

A not so stupid prediction...Kitco will be down tomorrow.

Priceless...simply priceless...

Gold star resources.

How will the market react to the non-results of the G7 meeting today? DOWN big time. Go to http://biz.yahoo.com/n/z/z0006.html and the alignement of countries will be obvious. There is no way THIS plane can fly straight.

to write my novel.
So, if you'll just bear with me, here it goes....

Just a small technical contribution and then have a nice weekend all. "The recent drop since Wednesday has come in 5 distinct waves. First, 1.3890-1.3755, second 1.3755-1.3820, third 1.3820-1.3565, fourth 1.3565-1.3655 and fifth 1.3655-1.3410. It is not unusual to see this fifth wave giving up all its gains. Too early to say but it is a little more encouraging now that shortly ago the low was tested and held for a small yet clear double bottom. The whole move 1.3890-1.3410 can produce a 1/3 corection to 1.3570, a 50% to 1.3650 or a 2/3 to 1.3730. The first and third corrections in ideal Elliott 38.2% and 61.8% terms produce 1.3593 and 1.3707. All this provided the USD can clear and hold above 1.6365 DEM and 1.3480 CHF."

according to:

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Thanks for keeping things clunking along during the last two most interesting weeks. We have waited a long time and taken many a loss. Your efforts are appreciated, but those programmers need a bit more of an incentive to finish on target.

This week's "The Privateer" offeres a most instructive take on the upcoming week. Basically their position, and I have been concerned with the circumstances they define for two weeks now, rests with the view that the G7 nations cannot allow gold to rise indiscrimanately while global equity markets and currencies fall. They argue that gold's performance at $300-302 represents the razor's edge. If gold rises from here, it will confirm the equity bear. So, despite the fact that gold has had an impressive run, the real strength of gold will be tested. Ironically, some observers have claimed that, despite the short-covering by gold shorts, many hedge funds are now so wary of volitility they will refrain from buying gold, even though gold appears to have momentum. If, then, gold backs off from its upward resistance, it would probably retrace its way to bottom resistance at $280. As "The Privateer" observes, the fact that gold has bottomed does not mean that we will see a gold bull. As I posted on several occasions previously, gold has much to prove to wary investors, many obstacles to overcome from determined shorts and equity bulls.

Bill Buckler's views on the Privateer are very persuasive on first viewing. However, I think we are setting ourselves up for a fall if we continuously maintain that gigantic forces are manipulating and controlling the price of gold and that we are the mercy of these forces. Our own fears will then become the real foe. We will gnash our teeth against the evil financiers with righteous indignation as POG drops. In reality, there is no greater power than our combined belief in that which is true and that which is obviously counterfeit. Gold has broken barriers of $500,$600,$700 before. Why not now? Especially now!

C-Span had a Senate committee on Y2k televised yesterday. Senator Dodd and a couple others headed the committee. They seem to be getting concerned that alot of people are not taking the whole thing seriously. The main target seemed to be the people having control of systems which are likely to have a domino if their system fail. The committee used a chart showing a burning highrise building and all the systems that could have disasterous effect on the responce if just one failed. They pointed out that the USA will have 17 hours after the turn of the year in New Zealand to see what impact may be expected. Unfortunately, you folks "Down Under" will be the first to find out if everything continues to work. The Senate committee definetely expect at least some problems. In the end a statement was made that we still have time to fix the problems if they are addressed now. I think that is questionable considering all available resources are up to their ass in alligators already. JMHO

Are not capital flows being primarily influenced by currency fluctuations and THEN by the appropriate asset-class ...

Just thought I'd point out that if Jeil's chart on ASA holds true we are in for a really bad week for gold! Thoughts anyone!

This was the phrase denoting the act of the beholder which authenticates drama. Its origins were in Coleridge's study of literature, but since all propaganda is fiction, its further study and application are now the work of intelligence officers. Fittingly, Coleridge was himself a British secret agent for a time.

The modern nation state exists by reason of the willing suspension of disbelief. It is an act of belief, an act of faith, to credit its basic assumption, that is to say, that a few hundred persons could in any meaningful sense of the word "represent" millions and millions of human beings. In your typical People's Republic, in which all the representatives are agents of a Party, in practice it boils down to believe or else. But, it's not that much different for those who do not identify with a Party in nominally multi-party People's Republics.

Considered as a propaganda drama, the Moon Landing Fraud was presented to an audience which wanted to believe. They paid with taxes for admission to the show and were ready to believe. For reasons of national pride in going where no flag had gone before. For reasons of anomie in filling an emptiness of purpose. For reasons of self-interest in making Science popular. For reasons of self-esteem in feelings of contributing to a great thing. For reasons of destiny in taking a step to the stars. For reasons of human spirit in place of holy spirit. For reasons of security that our system could do what the other could not. We exist in the nation state as players. We believe we choose our directors and are simultaneously the actors and the audience in their productions.

All reason is against the Moon Landing being anything but a mission to defraud or propagandize as it is against printed paper being money. But, the show goes on. The difference is the amount of feedback which the audience gets in these different productions. Empty wallets and stomachs tend to suspend disbelief.

Beginning next week we shall see some technical rebound in stocks, I believe. While week after with its "triple witches" day derivatives expiration may drive stock significantly below current level

It's definitely a plus to have a union lackey posting at this site. I am always interested in organized labor's spin. I saw on the news this weekend how some people were protesting Klinton at a fundraiser. Some Teamster goons showed up and starting punching and pushing the anti-Clintonians. They managed to break up the protest.

My company has been under siege by some union "organizers". These people have used the lowest mafioso tactics such as surveillance, threats, hooliganism, black propaganda, and always, always torrents of sick twisted lies.

I spoke with a Congressional aide last week and was informed that ever since Klinton was elected the union bottomfeeders have brazenly been attacking non-union businesses that are able to beat union shops on price and quality with the full support of Uncle Scam.

I really wish the people of this country could see the destruction and pain caused by Unions. The owner of our company, a wonderful guy and a real American success story, who works 70 hours a week was recently diagnosed with cancer. His health fell apart as a direct result of this dirty little union campaign.

Congratulations comrade. Post on.


My best regards to your handlers. Post on comrade!

Low commodity prices are adding to the economic pressure on the Latin America markets and currencies! Six months ago I would have agreed with Privateer however today is a different story! Some three weeks ago while gold was testing lows the deflation alarms were sounded and the fear surrounding the crb index dropping below 200 became real. Words to the effect that the war on gold has been taken to far came out of nowhere! The sentiment began to reverse and the deflation alarms were silenced.
During the growth of the bubble shorting gold and going long treasuries was in fashion however that game is coming to an end as Central Banks begin to smell RISK! I am not saying gold is going straight up from here and nor do I doubt that we will see some pullbacks however over the long term I do doubt that the solution to this problem we all face is over the heads of world leadership. Rubin and Greenspan have no solutions in the short term and these meetings are simply another form of fear control.
LTCM have not adressed their problems to date as the market continues to rack up huge losses! The money was simply a means of buying time while they unwind positions that will register huge losses. Why would anyone believe that LTCM is not short gold? The easiest route to cheap money has been found in the gold market on the short side and I am certain these boys are short far more than expected. This directly relates to their bond positions. Greenspan would gladly give us $350.00 gold if that price were to take the majority of risk out of the short side of the market, however he is very aware that this monumental short position could force gold prices to levels that would force fear into panic.
The other factor is China who at some point here will move some of its reserve into gold in fear of a dropping USD. Watch fot the EU to give us the next bombshell as they raise their gold backing to thirty percent! The gold market has turned and I anticipate that we will see explosive moves in the next couple of weeks! Just one mans opinion.

I think that there is ample evidence that IN THE
PAST the price of gold has been manipulated
downward. The question then becomes, whether they
have currently lost control and their ability to
continue the manipulation. Mr. Buckler's argument
seems to me a rational one, and the answer to
which we will have in time.

Regardless of the answer to the question of their
ability to bring the POG back into control, I do
not believe that such actions can be maintained
into the new year. 1999 will most certainly be
the year of the gold bug - and by the way I'm
setting my sights on $2000 gold by 2000.

Go gold!

Given the volatility of global financial markets, where are you stashing your savings?

Stocks 20% 2544 votes
Mutual funds 29% 3731 votes
Bonds 7% 960 votes
Money market 15% 1927 votes
I have no savings 29% 3793 votes

Total: 12955 votes

Please, don't assume that just because I ( or anyone else ) posts an article about gold that they necessarily believe in all the statements made in the article.

It never hurts to see opinions and ideas from all sides to the question - I try to post things which I find interesting, that reflect on movements in the price of gold, either in a positive or negative way.

As Gollum says, "What is, is."

Go gold

re: "Regardless of the answer to the question of their ability to bring the POG back into control, I do not believe that such actions can be maintained into the new year. 1999 will most certainly be
the year of the gold bug.."

Indeed yes. Once the Euro is launched, community law legislates that community gold be PRICED AT MARKET. It immediately becomes in the community's 'best interest' for gold price to advance! How nice for GBs, yes? {:- )

Don't know about gold or gold stocks but there's clearly a
rising "bull" market in proliferating goldchat forums.

Stop placed under drooy @3 1/2.

Comment by a bond trader on Treasuries well below 5% across
the maturities-- 'To the present buying yield is not an issue.'

That was not my intention to suggest you bought into privateer and I donot think I suggested it!

Those curves have been on the edge of the crevasse for a couple of weeks now, and the dropoff keeps getting moved out day by day as the stocks move higher.

Will the collapse his projections predict occur? Maybe.

Will I buy more if it does? Yep. Somebody on the SI gold price monitor classed today's climate not as deflation or inflation, but FEARflation. I think that says it all. FEARflation should be very good for gold.

Yes, I understand - You were just stating reasons for the POG to go up.

Sometimes with this medium it is easy to read something into statements that are not there. ( ;^ ) )

( 1 ) Bundesbank, June 98 report, listed 32 bn ( +/- ) institutional holdings in foreign debt "mostly dollars"-these are position holdings to 'windfall' Euro:$:DEM play. However, if the dollar looks/feels shaky and the total returns in Treasuries are too tempting to resist ( or,worse yet, reach the point of covering for DEM:Euro conversions, the positions will be closed. Big trouble.
( 2 ) As 'awareness' of the yen:yuan regional currency solution permeates Street consciousness, things are going to get VERY interesting. Word is seeping out. Fear is trickling in.
( 3 ) Got gold?

Off for a Chardonnay Sunday brunch. Prosit! Stin ygia sou! Salud! Cin-cin! Cheers! I feel much better already. {:- )

I'm not waiting for Jeil's charts to come true either. I did some buying of physical the day before gold made its move last week ( just dumb luck ) . would

http://www.btimes.co.za/98/1004/comp/comp09.htm

http://msnbc.com/news/201315.asp

what interesting times we live in

and you're right we should think for ourselves, but remember, the markets are bigger than we are.

I think Bill Buckler is clearly right, that gold markets are being manipulated by central banks. He was reporting rumours of this long before this summer when A. Greenspan came out with an admission that the banks were using leasing to contain rises in the POG.

There are going to be some titanic clashes of forces in the next few weeks and months, and one of those clashes will a battle between the central bankers and investors of the world over the relative value of gold.

Collectively, the G7 central banks have a huge gold war chest, but they are limited in two ways: 1 ) selling their gold is a slow process, since they must all obtain governmental approval to sell gold reserves, except for the Fed, and even the Fed would likely consult with the Treasury Dept. before taking such a step. 2 ) Their leasable reserves are limited.

On the other side is public opinion, which the central banks are trying to manipulate. The central banks can sell into gold rallies and drive out the bulls as long as trading is confined to commercials and short-term momentum players. So far this has kept the 'public' out of these markets, because the public has been focused on returns, not on safety.

What the central banks won't be able to do is stop a tide of public opinion that shifts from greed to fear and seeks safety. The media, from which the great mass of people get their opinions, is starting to shift its focus. An article in Barron's recently put gold at the head of its list of safe refuges for people fleeing the bear market.

When the public starts buying gold, the central banks will have a very hard time containing the momentum. Sam_A has calculated that just 10 million investors buying 10 oz. each ( only a $3,000 investment ) would swamp the leasing resources of the central banks. And a shift in public opinion can occur surprisingly fast- much faster than central banks could respond to with physical gold sales.

So what we may see is a sea change- where gold slips out of the control of the central banks, at least until enough of the public has obtained the gold it wants.

A good investor doesn't wade out into the waters like a King Canute and order up an investment wave that is exactly to his ( or her ) liking. King Canute was brave and bold, he had proven that in battle, but he still got soaked up to his neck.

A good investor is more like a surfer. He's got courage, and surfing can be a dangerous occupation, but he doesn't confront. He launches out into the water and starts to read the sea. He looks for the incoming wave that he thinks will rise and curl perfectly when it comes in to the shallow waters, and he positions himself to start forward in sync with the wave. Usually he's right- a beautiful wave forms and he gets a great, adrenaline-pumping ride into shore. Sometimes he's wrong, and after he starts riding a wave he realizes it's a dud, so he points his board up the face of the wave through the crest, and starts back out to look for the next good wave.

The champion surfers are those who learn to read the sea the best, who learn to ride the wave with all they've got once they're on a good one, and who don't waste time on losing waves. There are definitely lessons to be learned here by every investor, dude. Learn to catch the wave or you'll get toasted!

- Steve

How can you tell I lived in California for a while? It comes back to me every now & again, gnarly, man. . . : )

In Canada the unions are growing as more and more Canadians struggle to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table! I donot belong to a union however I believe that in general terms unions are a must! The middle class have been eliminated and the elite will take all the marbles if we let them. We are seeing this performance first hand on Wall Street as we speak. The Great Reckoning speaks of violence in the streets as the poor band together to fight the elite! Up until recently I never bought into these ideas yet all one has to do is take a look around the world and imagine a repeat of events in North America.... Banks refusing to let you have access to your cash, inflation rates of 100% or more, interest rates of 30% and higher, real estate prices down by 70% or more and last but far from least a 15% to 25% unemployment rate. Right or wrong UNIONS will grow in strength over the next couple of years as the average working guy realizes that the elite will not be happy until they own all the marbles.

NEW YORK ( AP )  If fretting about the gyrations of the securities markets is starting to wear on your nerves, sit back for a moment and think about the positive things the Wall Street tumult is accomplishing.

Interest rates are coming down, lowering the cost of borrowing for everybody from individual home buyers to the federal government. The speculative fever so many commentators worried about in stocks has cooled considerably.

Dividend yields sank too low? Well, now they're moving up. Whoever was operating under the delusion that they couldn't lose in stock investments can't make that reckless presumption anymore.

Admittedly, this happy talk is small consolation to somebody who bought Citicorp stock for $180 a few months ago and now sees it trading for $95. Or to investors who have experienced a 20 percent to 50 percent contraction in the value of their Asian, or Latin American, or emerging markets, or small-company growth funds.

More than a few observers argue that the corrective process is far from over. For example, a stock like Amazon.com, whose price rests entirely on hopes for the future rather than any present earnings or dividends, still trades at more than five times its 12-month low.

Norman Fosback, editor of the advisory letter Market Logic, says a price-earnings ratio for blue chip stocks that has come down only from 30 to 1 to 27 to 1 or so still looks perilously high.

``We expect the market slide has further to go, both in magnitude and duration,'' Fosback writes. ``But happily, the first portents of the next upleg are beginning to emerge.''

For one thing, Fosback notes, corporate insiders  top executives, directors and major owners  ``have gone on a buying spree  in fact, they are now buying at the heaviest rate since the market lows in late 1987 and late 1990.''

In a related, and especially telling development, partners at one of Wall Street's most respected investment banks, Goldman, Sachs & Co., have put off plans for a public offering of stock.

Rather than viewing this is as a vote of no confidence in the markets, some observers see it as merely a patient, prudent decision by a savvy group of investors. Now is not a good time to be selling, their message seems to say  we'll be back later when we will be able to get a better price.

In times of stress in the markets, many people look to prominent individuals and institutions for signs of strong leadership. But most government officials and regulators would be quick to tell you they have very little power to steer the markets.

A great clamor has surrounded last week's decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate on overnight loans between banks by a quarter of a percentage point, to 5.25 percent.

But the impact of that action was more symbolic than anything else. Other interest rates, set by market forces, had already gone down much more sharply, and kept falling afterwards.

Late last week, yields on all Treasury securities, from three-month bills to 30-year bonds, were below 5 percent. Whatever the Federal Reserve may do, the world's markets for debt securities are already easing credit conditions in a forceful way.

The financial and economic outlook at the moment seems filled with instabilities. Investment managers can't open their mail these days without reading a recession forecast. But the markets, while appearing to exacerbate the atmosphere of anxiety, may also be making important moves toward restoring stability.

As Greg Smith, strategist at Prudential Securities, told investor-readers of his market bulletin last week, ``Now that you're worried, I'm a little less so.''

The Concord Coalition Media Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
September 30, 1998

CONTACT: Craig Cheslog, Concord Coalition ( 202-467-6222 )

THE NATIONAL DEBT CONTINUES TO INCREASE DESPITE
TODAY'S BUDGET "SURPLUS" CELEBRATION

WASHINGTON--Despite claims the country is wiping away 30 years of red ink, the national debt
continues to grow. While politicians of both parties take credit for a budget "surplus," the national debt
has grown by over $110 billion ( $110,639,535,002.46 ) so far in fiscal year 1998. With one day remaining
in the fiscal year, this year's debt will be greater than last year's, continuing a streak that dates back to
1960.

"The growing national debt is an unwelcome guest at today's surplus party," said Concord Coalition
National Policy Director Robert L. Bixby. "But, politicians who energetically boast about surpluses today
will have a difficult time explaining to their constituents in a few years why they need to raise the debt
limit."

Many people understandably wonder how the national debt can continue to increase when the
government claims to be running a surplus. The answer lies in the fact that most politicians are referring to
the "unified" budget, which lumps together all revenue and all spending from both federal funds and trust
funds--like Social Security.

The projections of "unified" budget surpluses assume continued borrowing in excess of $100 billion
annually from the Social Security and other federal trust funds. Social Security's surpluses have been
credited to the program's trust fund and the money has been loaned back to the Treasury to help defray
the costs of other government spending. For as long as this practice continues, the national debt will
rise--even as the President and Congress take credit for creating a new era of budget surpluses.

"Concord continues to emphasize that without using funds earmarked for Social Security, there is no
budget surplus," said Bixby. "It is inconsistent for Congress to say that Social Security is 'off-budget'
while at the same time using the Social Security surplus to pay for tax cuts or new spending."

The Concord Coalition is a nonpartisan, grassroots organization seeking to eliminate federal budget
deficits and ensure that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are secure for all generations. Concord
was founded in 1992 by the late former Senator Paul Tsongas ( D-Mass. ) , former Senator Warren
Rudman ( R-N.H. ) , and former Secretary of Commerce Peter Peterson. Former Senator Sam Nunn
( D-Ga. ) was named a co-chair of the Coalition in 1997.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The National Debt on September 29, 1998:
$5,523,785,546,399.80
The National Debt on September 30, 1997:
$5,413,146,011,397.34
FY 1998 National Debt Increase To Date:
$110,639,535,002.46


-30-



Send e-mail to the Concord Coalition at: webmaster@concordcoalition.org.
Last updated: 30 Sep 1998

The U.S. public debt outstanding increased $14B in 24 hours
between the end of fiscal year '98 September 30 and beginning of
FY'99 October 1st.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

That's a keeper! Propino tibi!

Appreciated your soothing words re Harmony earlier today. You know us abay boomers who have been spoiled by too much stock market gain in the past decade...we're so impatient, we whine after only a week of owning new shares! I'm hangin on to Harmony.... now if I could just incorporate the name into all aspects of life.....

If I ran a hedge fund that was short gold and anticipated that I would have to cover would it not make sense to buy gold stocks before the unwinding of the position. Over a month ago I took notice that the trading patterns on ABX and PDG were changing and that the patterns appeared to be accumulation. What is wrong with my thinking here? Any opinions why this strategy would not make sense?

Was the giant headline in our local paper Sunday morning edition today.
Lengthy article on G7 meeting yesterday, and what is it come by way of heading off worldwide recession.

Expect a substantial gain in U.S. stocks tomorrow.

More importantly than the G7, Puetz was so kind as to respond last Thursday with a new "Crash update" which singlehandedly caused the market's freefall to cease and turn upward!

LGB

last fridays wall street journal showed gold coin sales for august and september running at almost the yearly average of the lst ten years. WJS intimated this was true of silver as well. G & S have had virtually no demand by the public and certainly no speculation for 10 years. these are huge variables. 1st ) you have to figure this demand is taking place in other countries as well; 2nd, you have to assume it will continue as long as the worlds financially, intractable problems continue; 3rd what does this do to the already low silver inventories; 4, when does great demand metamorphose into speculation. last i have heard it speculated that japans bank crises may be 15 times our s and l crises. good old fashhion demand and speculation- quantitative variables i can feel, taste and see. mole 1 or 2

As usual, France finds a way to stand alone. Seeing the current meltdown in Global markets as a failure of unregulated capitlaism, failure of the "chaos" of free market, and an "opportunity" for new ideas ( i.e. rehashed socialist central planned economies ) .

Funny, I see it as neither one. More a failure of some of the major trading nations fiscal and banking policies, in extending credit far too freely. But what do I know....

Note to Gollum...this guy is stealing your "Plane" analogy!

"End of an era" -France tells G7 partners

By Brian Love

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Strange as it may seem, France sees an upside to the investor panic that has throttled world stock markets since Russia's political and economic meltdown in August.

``It's the end of an era,'' French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Saturday after financial leaders from the world's rich nations, the Group of Seven, tried to respond to widening economic and financial markets crises.

``It's the end of the historical debate over market economy versus centrally planned economy ... now what's starting is the debate over liberalization in disorderly fashion versus liberalization in a regulated way,'' he said.

Strauss-Kahn and his Socialist-led government believe their pleas for more tempered capitalism have long gone unheeded, but that the recession in Southeast Asia, economic chaos in Russia and financial market turmoil in Latin America prove their point.

Russia's currency crash and partial debt default in August, as well as the demise of a government pressed by the West to embrace its free market model rapidly, has shocked world leaders and shattered investor confidence in emerging markets.

Paris takes a certain delight in seeing its G7 partners starting to speak its language, talking about more orderly liberalization of capital markets and recognition of the social fallout from reform plans designed by the West for beleaguered economies such as South Korea.

``It generates new ideas, even if there's nothing to rejoice about,'' he said after Saturday's meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 nations -- the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Canada.

The G7 talks ended with a communique that said little more than a joint declaration issued two weeks ago in an attempt to stem huge investor withdrawals from emerging market economies and stock market slides in G7 countries.

The communique on Saturday, much like the one on Sept. 14, said G7 countries realized their allegiance was no longer solely to the fight against the age-old enemy of inflation, and they would do what was needed to protect economic growth.

The verdict on their latest deliberations will come when financial markets open on Monday, but signs are somewhat ominous, given that their previous declaration failed to halt the market turmoil, even when it was followed with interest rate cuts by the U.S. and Canadian central banks.

Strauss-Kahn defended the G7's latest stand at a Saturday night news conference.

``The G7 is playing the role of the pilot that's needed in the plane,'' he said.

But he also gave a sober appraisal of what the G7 could actually do in the near term to restore confidence.

``Flying a plane is not simply about inventing a whole string of new gadgets,'' he said.

The minister reiterated his belief that financial markets were no longer behaving rationally.

In the same way that stock markets rose too far in the first half of the year, their recent tumble no longer bore any relation to the ``real economy,'' he said.

The problem with your post mole, is that while it's true Gold & silver bullion coins are selling at near record levels here in the states, in the LARGER personal consumption economies, India and Asia, Gold & silver purcahses are way off, particularly in their traditional jewelry purcahses ( which in many parts of the world is a form of wealth storage ) .

Scroll back through the early Am, you'll find the post re India for example where traders comments are quoted.


LGB

Japan...lack of action regarding banking turmoil...

Go to: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold2.htm

I cannot imagine when you would need purity higher than 4 nines for coinage. That's cutting it pretty fine! About the source HTML: Excellent series of articles, I cannot remember who first posted these as a source a few days ago to give credit where credit is due, but by all means read the entire group of articles. Just change the last numeral from 1-5 ( or6 )

As to the comments about watching your back; You seem to take some perverse pride in antagonizing the beast. There may come a day when this is unhealthy or fatal. If my life was a potential chip in the Great Game of the Con, I would feel on safer precedent invoking Daniel than Patrick Henry.

What do you think? The 29% currently with no savings will shortly increase by the 49% with their savings in the stock market until there are close to 78% with no savings.
-EJ

That's one number nobody wants to see increase, for what is a global recession if not individuals saving what they earn and spending only when they absolutely have to. Depression could almost be defined as countless economies of one.

Could do - I've got a friend who keeps telling me how the cash component of his portfolio is increasing every day - as his equities go down in value so does his original 10% cash holding go up as a percentage of the total!! Currently it is up to over 20% from the original 10% and still rising ...

what your saying i suspect is true as far as it goes.. what we know though, is that in the last two months overall demand for gold and silver and stocks has risen as asia's economy continues to fall. apparently the demand somewhere is greater than asia's lack of demand. i would like to know what you ascribe the move up in gold and silver to? last, what i suspect is that the demand in G and S coins is analogous to seeing fish jump on the surface of the ocean, there is probably a large school underneath that we can't see.

http://www.zolatimes.com/v2.32/socsec_myth.html

Date: Sun Oct 04 1998 10:46

Speed ( Rob ) ID#29048:

Thanks. It looks like I can pick up more yield by getting some CDE preferreds or Con verts.. It looks like the SA's have done a lot more discounting of future gold prices than the NA's

i do not know this for a fact, but i would bet that the last few rises in gold and silver prices 79-80, 82, 87 etc, were concurrent with a rise in the demand for gold and silver coins.

My thought is that gold may be rising slightly because demand is up, but that this one reason alone isn't the reason for the overall increase. I think ( and I could very well be wrong ) that the "rise" in gold is actually gold staying stable in the face of the falling dollar. People talking about Yen vs. dollars and dollars vs. marks, etc, but all currencies can fall in relation to gold as well, and I think that's what we're seeing. If the dollar was the currency of last resort and you can no longer count on dollars ( FED will be competing with you if you're holding dollars ) , then there isn't anywhere else to run but gold, which will retain it's value as it always has. That's my take on it.

If the strength of the US economy depends on the US consumer spending all but .6% of income, what might the US economy do if the consumer decided to start saving a little for a rainy day, with all this global rain talk they've been hearing? And if the recovery of the world economy depends on the strength of the US economy, won't increased savings by US consumers slow the global economy even more? Can US consumers be inspired to spend more if offered cheaper debt? Already consumers can buy a car or a house no money down, even if they have bad credit. Will a fractional decrease in interest rates create a significant marginal increase in consumer spending?

I asked two friends who are mortgage brokers and two who are real estate brokers what they see happening from the lower interest rates, this past 1/4 decrease and the additional 1/4 the stock market has already priced in. They independently agreed that homeowners will refinance their homes but no knew buyers will be created. This fact is there for all to see in the new home sales stats. The Sept. surge has not happened. The drop in the stock market has done more to discourage new buyers than a decrease in interest rates can do to encourage them.

Also, look for much worse Q3 actuals than the lower Q3 EPS estimates that have come out over the past few weeks. I'm in high tech sales. Most of my pals for the first time in many, many years did not make their worst case estimates of sales against quota. Some missed for the first time ever, meaning their forecasting models are now broken. Buying behavior has suddenly changed. Corporations are delaying capital spending. I do not believe that the market has priced this in yet. Perhaps next week as the news leaks out before announcements the week after...

-EJ

Thank you for the notice of the ever increasing putrescent sludge of lies oozing from the rotting political carcass of Washington D.C.

The Republic is lost.

I would recommend the novel "Eden" by Stanislav Lew; in it he recounts the notion of a crypto-government ... i.e. it officially does not exist, yet does enormous harm.

Spud; buy gold, damn the Federal Reserve & its minions

Can anyone tell me if the XAU and OIX ( oil? ) trade like the OEX puts and calls?... I.E American traded options...able to be sold anytime and any other details? Thanks for the help in advance.....

muchly for all your coin info. last night.

There's another coin that interests me greatly. It's the coin that has been minted for longer than any other coin still in circulation . . .

it's the Maria Theresa Thaler, which has been struck on and off by various mints since 1782. From what I've been reading, it was the origin of our word 'dollar' ( thaler is pronounced 'toller' by Austrians. )

It had .782 oz silver, but the paragraph didn't say what it was alloyed with.

They all have the date 1780 on them, but the paragraph I read said that various mints have had subtle distinguishing marks that allow you to discover which mint had produced them, and approximately date them, since the periods of minting are known.

They are still used as an ad hoc currency in Yemen, and would be accepted by many old-timers in Somalia and Ethiopia, who refused to use Italian Lire during the war, or the Ethiopian funny-money in the post-war period.

Does anyone out there know of books or articles that have more information on the M.T. Thalers? Any of you folks know something about them personally?

ThanQ,
Steve

envy, that sounds like a test in econ 101. the logic is cerainly there, and i am sure that is one variable, but i do not think that is the main variable. i do not think the average joe and jane think at that level of sophistication. remember the national enquirer out sells time, newsweek and u.s. news and world report together. i think part of the people are scared and do know to go to gold, plus it is cheap, and some others are speculating because of all of this. i certainly could also be wrong. i guess my intuition ( whatever that is ) tells me that gold and silver coin cosumption is an important indicator.

Agreed, that was an excellent message. We're already seeing it in the numbers as well, consumer spending slows down as risk is seen to increase, it always happens, these things build on one another. You can almost feel the shift in faith and confidence, which in the end is all what it boils down to. Money ran from Asia - not for any real reason, people just got frightened and took their money away, nothing fundamental really changed that much. Speculation turns to fear. When some folks head for the exits - will the market see them as people who can't stand the heat, the wussies of the bunch, or are they the leaders, it just depends on public perception. Why does the FED increase rates to get the country out of a recession ? Because the little guy needs to be encouraged to start investing his/her money, and the FED doesn't want to be seen as competing with money that's already out there, they want and need the "little guy" to start investing his own money. It's faith, and I feel it's waning after reaching historic highs. Let's just hope it doesn't eat itself.

Thanks for the Social Security myths link. After reading it,
it squares well with that gathered elsewheres. This quip was cute:

"We used to pay off the mortgage and leave our kids the farm.
Now we hock the farm and leave our kids the mortgage."

I am not proud that the Feds have noticed {I'm awaiting verification}.
It really concerns me. I posted my 02:43 as a heads-up to all Kitcoites that their web activities may be noticed.

The game is poker. The CBs are sitting with a pile of chips ( gold reserves ) , but a losing hand ( debt based paper ) . Naturally, they bluff. It seems to me that someone with a few billion and some balls could pick this turkey clean. Raise, Raise, Raise. Buy physical. Buy calls. Game over.

I think your reasoning is correct for the short term increase we've seen, and my thoughts have merit for the long term. I think it'll all become more obvious later, and the answer resides in silver. If silver stays down and gold continues up, it would seem to me intuitively that fear was driving speculation into Gold. If silver rises to catch up, then something fundamental is driving it and Gold was the leading edge indicator for the move. Very humble opinion, and I'm sure I could be wrong.

The XAU options trade on the Philly exchange. Buy and sell puts and calls
same as other options. Expiry dates same as stocks--3rd Fri.
I'm looking to buy an OCT98--70 PUT for about $1.00 or less come Mon.AM on the open. The value ( $1 ) times 100 equals costs. Willing to risk $100
in the chance the XAU will fall below 70 sometime before Oct16.
It is an easy way to go long or short the gold stocks without having to pick just one or two out.
I see it as an opportunity to pick up $ to buy physical. If one is wrong
all you are out is the price of the option. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE-- Just Chicken man's opinion.Hope this answers your ?

@SDRer Thanks for the notice. Please translate your comment.

"The central economic challenge was to distribute the gains of productivity in a manner that would maintain employment and prosperity." Lester Thurow

What Central is all about from Peking to Padua to Pasadena.

one of my biggest passions is high stakes poker ( texas hold-em ) . it was like poetry to my ears to hear someone present the play accurately. the movies seldom get it right.

:- ) )

There is a web site that explains how various October Crashes have occurred several times on the same number of new moons after a certain date in the Jewish calendar. I know that this year it is pointing to October 16th. Does anybody have the URL or can share more information.

TIA

Dabchik posted this yesterday about the relational components making up the rise in the price of gold. Look at the last couple of lines and indeed, ( if his meathod of valuation is accurate ) , it was both a real increase, and an illusiory increase.


Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as
supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week.

Date | Close | High | Low |
28 Sep | 71.20 | 71.43 | 70.87 |
28 Sep | 70.90 | 71.59 | 70.81 |
30 Sep | 71.58 | 71.77 | 71.28 |
01 Oct | 72.54 | 72.65 | 71.61 |
02 Oct | 72.73 | 73.01 | 71.98 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )

These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in
January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also
independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency
debasement.

Note that the 6.5% rise in the Dollar price of gold from $276 on 31st Aug to $295 on 30th Sept was
made up of a 1.9% rise in the True Value of Gold and a 4.6% fall in the value of the US dollar
against all other currencies.

six months ago i saw no near term hope for gold and was only in silver ( supply ? ) ; then when this whole global drama started to unravel i realized i was not adequately covered in the gold so i started buying long term gold wts. on one level i feel silver should cover both industrial commodity and financial value, but i am covered about equally in both gold and silver stocks and options. but i never feel too comfortable when analysis is too esoteric. i like having both the currency debacle and demand factor, but it was the demand that gave me the most confidence. i have out-smarted myself too many times in the past by emotions or over intellectualizing.

where the looser gallantly pays his debt and retires from the table.
If the CBs really felt the gold was threatned they would prod their governments to invoke all sorts of executive orders, and the men wioth uniforms and guns would enforce them. Billion$ and balls would not stand up to the *slight* change in rules.

We already had one president in the U.S. who had no qualms about repudiating the good promise of the government to pay it's gambling debts.

http://www.researchmag.com/company/profile/cppgi.pdf

http://fast.quote.com/fq/newphlx/quote?symbols=INDEX:$XAU.X

Unrelated to Hebrew calendar, 16th is October derivatives expiration day and more - "triple witches" day. Huge sell-off may start one or two days before. On the other hand, open interest figures are so, that there are more put then call options to be expired. Market makers will probably try to drive stocks up at least a bit - most of October index calls will expire worthless anyway, while some "hopeless" puts are in-the-money now

Here is the web site that you are looking for. ALL autumn financial panics hit the lowest point of -55 hours from the 8th ( ? ) new moon. The relationship does not say if a year will have a panic but when they do, they all follow this trend. I will also give another link in the next post ( since I don't know how to cut and paste more than one item at the same time ) from a poster over on S.I. that relates the lunar calendar AND the '29 crash to today. Basically, he thinks panic should start this week.

http://www.calendarresearch.com/autmn_panics.htm

Yeah, in the end I bought Gold because it was cheap too. I did take into account the rush of money from abroad, and the rising dollar - my basic strategy has been SELL DOLLARS and buy anything that has been hurt by rising dollars, namely, gold. I haven't bought gold stocks, however, I'm just in physical. The reason for that is my own ignorance about what could happen if equity values took a dump, that is, would they take gold stocks with them ? Not wanting to chance it, I'm sticking with physical as a hedge against dollars, and I'll buy gold stocks when and if the market takes a big tank and gold stocks go along for the ride. If the market doesn't tank, I'll hold the physical for reasons that have nothing to do with investments. If the market does tank, but the gold stocks see really nice gains, I'll just figure I missed out on the play and won't buy them. That's my basic strategy right now. My gold play doesn't have anything to do with speculation, it's just capital preservation - my speculative bets are on potential market down-side. If the market does tank, I'll immediately start looking at bonds figuring that a loss of confidence in general will break the "stocks up, bonds down - bonds up, stocks down" cycle, that they could both fall at the same time because of excessive fear, and I'll figure out a way to short them. I figure a fall in bonds would happen after a fall in stocks as the realizations start sinking in and people start wiping the blood out of their eyes. Could be wrong, the truth will eventually be known.

Ever look at the CPI verses Sugar?
Either goldbugs have a sweet tooth or could it be that the price of food
( or should I say the FEAR of the price of food ) is going to be the factor
that sets off the gold fever?

Anyone care to discuss this theory?

http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5904094

Thank you for your valuable input.

Of course you are right. We need a contigency plan for when the four flusher, realizing his bluff has been called, pulls his pistol.

Folks, I see a bunch of post indicating that despite the fact that CB's trying to manipulate Gold, investors won't be fooled, and flight to safety will guarantee the Gold market explosion. Well, I think we have a long way to go!

1. Average investor does not appreciate Gold as road to safety. Average investor did not experience a significant equity market decline with gold providing proven safety. Decline in equity market was followed by rallies in relatively short time. - so short that Gold lesson did not register
2. Average investor does not study market history going back 50 -70 years
3. Average investor does not even know that we have gold rally going on for the last few weeks, nor ( s ) he hows much gold stocks appreciated in their value
4. This forum discuss these issue in detail, however, the facts are not know on the street

Good example is this weekend business section in the Washington Post. On Sundays, the Washington Post prints a weekly summary for all markets, quoting weekly gains for each stock and sector. Well, you would think the gold sector should shine and show the way to "sheeplies". It could, however  the Washington Post stopped posting Gold sector some time ago. No Gold mutual funds, not individual Gold stocks. I guess we don't want the average investor know that there are some sectors which may prosper while overall markets go South.

Gold sector was mentioned only in one sentence, buried in the middle of lengthy article saying "Gold-oriented funds, proving their worth in times of global economic turmoil were the only sector that was up in the quarter, at about 4 percent". Well, I doubt that this quarterly average number, hidden in the middle, is enough for the average Joe to take his money and move it into Gold-funds. Why should he when in the same paper there are at least four pages of articles saying "Now it's time to build your portfolio don't quit your equity allocation  etc"

Yeah, there was an article about contrarian funds, however, no one word about these funds holding gold, most of it was about "shorting the equity market"

Yeah, this war will be a long one with no easy trail to victory.

I agree with your thinking! I've already shorted the 30 yr bonds Thur and Fri ( should have waited! ) Trying to work on that patience thing.Ha
129 PUT @.16 --I like the cheap ones-- looking for bonds to hit the trend
line @ 125.
Sounds pretty wild but I think it could be!
20 to 1 payoff if my "pony" comes in

From a practical point of view, I believe that long-term food storage items such as MREs, pails of dehydrated food, 5 year plus canned goods,
etc. will go up in price as will gold during these uncertain and possibly
Y2K turmoil times. I think investing in these long term food items
will be good for bartering, giving to neighbors/friends/family, and
even selling for a profit if you are so motivated.
These goods are already increasing in price because of hurricanes
problems of recent. Stock up now; you will always need to eat.

Y2K and Gold Production  A Bird in the Hand

The possible disruptions to energy production and distribution from the Y2K problem make a compelling argument to hold bullion or coins instead of mining equities during the affected period. Consider the following simplistic cost model for the production of gold bullion.

POGB = POMO + POOM + POGE + POR + other

POGB = Price of Gold Bullion
POMO = Price of Mining Ore; Surface or Deep, requires Diesel fuel and electricity
POOM = Price of Ore Milling; crushing, requires electricity
POGE = Price of Gold Extraction from Ore; cyanide or electrolytic, requires electricity
POR = Price of refining Gold; furnace melting, requires electricity, LPNG, etc.
other = Regulatory Costs, Labor, Mining Rights, capital equipment, depreciation, profits, etc.

The amount of energy necessary in each gold mining/extraction/refinement step is comprised of enormous Btu equivalents of electricity, natural gas, Diesel fuel. The current natural gas disruption in Australia underscores the fragility of the energy distribution and production capabilities in the world. In the Cherokee Petroleum Price Model ( CPPM ) , these Btus will increase dramatically from todays values due to Y2K based shortages or War. The cost of production for the gold producers will increase commensurately. Therefore, I submit that the POGB at todays cost to the doorstep is an enormous value which should not be overlooked while you contemplate your next gold equity position.

I wonder if they also keep spare tires around for those big earth movers? Hmmmmm

http://www.coolandunusual.com/y2k/y2kstore/y27twok/index.html

I couldn't get that last URL you posted. It requires subscription. Could you post a little of the info to Kitco? TIA

I agree with you about having a heart to share with others. We all have friends who are not aware of the possible effects of Y2k, global food shortages,credit availablity to plant next years crop,etc. To be a true
friend we must help them! Even to the point of sharing our PM with them.

I been watching China with their floods and Russia's 35% crop shortage.
As a General you have probably studied the fact that you never starve
your "subjects" if you want to maintain your POWER over them.The last time Russia had such a short crop grain prices exploded ( and so did PM )

Save me a spot *grin*, if things go as they could, instead of as they should, then I'll be along shortly. We can sit on the promenade and drink with the ladies playing in the pool.

envy, the way i see it: the whole world is putting their money into our bonds and will continue to do so, so bonds go up. if the stock market went up some money would go out of stocks into bonds, but now you have earnings problems with stocks which makes them look suspect in the near future; and then theirs japan. i won't bet against bonds for quite a while, i think. mining stocks is my real area of knowledge. i like the stocks because you also have the chance of an exploration discovery. bought canarc a few weeks ago at .15 because they have severasl million ounces proved at polaris taku. jumped to .45 + on friday on a big discovery in mexico which noranda is going to explore. two chances.

I AGREE ...IT IS INCREDIABLE AS I TALK WITH PEOPLE EVEN IN MY OWN FAMILY...THAT HAVE 20 TIMES MY HOLDINGS IN EQUITIES ..YET THEY HAVE NO CLUE WHAT IS HAPPENING....WHEN I MENTION GOLD ,THE REACTION I GET IS LIKE IT WAS MARIJOUANA OR SOMETHING OUTLAWED.. WHICH WHEN I MENTION GOLD,I AM A REBEL????? I CAN NOT UNDERSTAND THIS MENTALITY
PERHAPS A BRAINWASHING WAS DONE WITHOUT ANY CATCHING ON?? WELL I AM ON ...GO GOLD ...

ANALYSIS-G7 fails to take charge on global crisis

By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Financial leaders in search of bold
solutions to global economic chaos wrapped up another weekend of talks on
Sunday, offering little more than vague promises and conflicting ideas on
what they should do next.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/c8.html

Market opens in 10 minutes..

G7 accomplished sweet dick-all. What a JOKE, I hope they got a good free lunch out of it at least........

I'm not actually saying I'm going to short bonds, but I'll be thinking seriously about it if equities were to drop significantly. I can't say why exactly, I know it's counter to the trend of bonds going up if equities go down, but I'd probably do it anyway. I think the basic feeling behind it is that when confidence falls in stocks, bonds rally - but when confidence falls in general, bonds could fall as well. In other words - we've been playing by rules that say an investor will invest in this or that, but there's a "mu" option that says investors don't have to invest at all. Bonds are toppy, and if confidence falls, people could very well bring their money home to invest in mason jars in the back yard.

24 June 1997
SUMMIT OF THE EIGHT AT DENVER: 'TWO VISIONS' -U.S., EUROPEAN

Commentators from around the globe weighed in with their assessments of last weekend's Summit of the Eight at Denver. An overwhelming majority of analysts did not focus on the final results of the summit, but on what they described as the "latent division" between Europe and America--which, they said, was only brought into higher relief at the summit. Paris's right-of-center Le Figaro asserted: "The summit was the meeting of two visions.... Europe stuck together to defend its own model.... Bill Clinton, as the world's organizer, wants to impose his vision on Europe."
http://www.robust-east.net/Net/usa/denver4.html

Mozel@Translate A small tribute ( at this site, anyway ) "I drink to you."

G7 statement "bit empty", Soros says

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros said on Sunday a statement by the Group of Seven major industrial nations had little content.

Asked whether the statement issued on Saturday went far enough, Soros told reporters: ``It sounded a little bit empty.''

He declined further comment as he came to the headquarters of the International Monetary Fund.

Soros has called for major industrial powers to cooperate more closely in trying to solve the world's financial crisis.

Bay Street Beat: Chill October wind may favor some

By Sarah Edmonds

TORONTO, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - The traditionally chill wind of October may well continue to buffet stock markets, but it could also bode well for some investors, offering them opportunities to buy undervalued shares.

Forest products, oil and gas, and gold -- the three sectors hardest-hit in the first part of this year's market reversal -- could yield some solid medium-term buys for the bold.

Many companies are trading at or below their book values in these sectors. Other cyclicals have fallen to levels that make them tough to turn down as well, strategists and portfolio managers said.

This shopping advice comes with a caveat emptor -- buyer beware -- as well. The market isn't going to rally any time soon due to nagging worries about the global economy, analysts believe. So the brave investor must be unfailingly patient and unflappable in the face of volatility.

``I think there are some tremendous opportunities in this market but if I had a pile of dough, I don't think I would want to spend all of it now,'' Fred Ketchen, senior vice-president and director of equity trading at ScotiaMcLeod Inc. said.

Ketchen said he believes the world's economic woes are far from over, with Japan, Russia and Latin America particularly worrisome. So as a canny investor, he would part with some of his hard-earned lucre for the bargains impossible to turn aside now and stay on alert for further bargains later.

``You have to do your homework. I think it's a terrific time to be picking stocks because you have no competition, most people are so nervous,'' said Irwin Michael, portfolio manager with ABC Funds.

The savaging that former high-flier Newcourt Credit Group Inc. ( Toronto:NCT.TO - news ) suffered last week at the hands of disillusioned investors spooked by rumors of problems with its access to financing is an indication of the edginess of the market.

``There's a lot of fear out there and when you get fear, you get opportunity,'' Michael said.

Investors should use the new low list as a starting point, sifting those that deserve their purgatory from the basically healthy companies dumped in a rush to sell. Investors must also compare book value with price.

``The market valuations are pretty low. In many cases, they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater. You may get some bad ones out there and then they throw everything out,'' Michael said.

He pointed at Canada's largest steel producer as a likely candidate for this kind of value investing.

``Look at a company like Stelco ( Inc. ) ( Toronto:STEa.TO - news ) -- well-run, good balance sheet, buying back stock, pays a dividend, back from the dead...Book value now is C$13 and here it is trading today at C$7.85. Everyone hates the steels, Stelco is trading maybe at two times cash flow,'' he said.

``Generally if you're going to be a value player, you want to be paying under book ( value ) .''

He also cited a number of paper and forest products companies, including St. Laurent Paperboard Inc. ( Toronto:SPI.TO - news ) and Alliance Forest Products Inc. ( Toronto:ALP.TO - news ) , and a few retailers.

Peter Gibson, ScotiaMcLeod's chief market strategist, believes that the United States may successfully fight deflation for the next few months -- perhaps into the second half of 1999 -- but that deflation will ultimately win out.

In the interim, the weakening of the U.S. dollar which will result from the easier Federal Reserve policy should give commodity prices a helping hand.

``If the Fed begins to cut interest rates more aggressively, then, as a rule, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar would fall and that would mean that U.S. dollar-denominated commodity prices should pick up a little bit,'' Gibson said.

The trade-weighted U.S. dollar is a measure of the overall strength of the U.S. dollar against major currencies of the world.

Eventually, the Fed will cut rates to the point where the bond market begins to balk and this will be a ``floor'' for bond yields. Gibson said when this happens, deflation will creep in and injure world economies.

``But at least you get started on the ( reflation ) process,'' Gibson said. ``So I'm actually spending time talking about gold stocks and I'm actually spending time talking about a couple of paper and forest products stocks -- Abitibi- ( Consolidated Inc. ) ( Toronto:A.TO - news ) and Domtar ( Inc. ) ( Toronto:DTC.TO - news ) as buy recommendations and Placer ( Dome Inc. ) ( Toronto:PDG.TO - news ) as a buy recommendation.''

``I'd take some integrated oil exposure. I'd take a couple of golds, particularly the golds just because of the relationship between gold and interest rates.''

The Toronto Stock Exchange gold subindex has already rallied sharply, up more than 3000 points from its August 31 low of 4228.88, but still more than 6100 points below its high, set in February 1996.

( $1 equals $1.54 Canadian )

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-10/02/077l-100298-idx.html

http://nt.excite.com/news/r/981004/07/business-funding

http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html

Policy Could Quell Global Economy Turmoil
Clinton IMF Plan Gains Support
The Associated Press
W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 4 - President Clinton got support for his efforts to reform the International Monetary Fund from British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac, THE WHITE HOUSE SAID Saturday.[caps SDRer, who doesn't believe a word of it...]

The endorsements came as leaders of the world's largest economies gathered for pivotal economic meetings.
http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/business/DailyNews/
imf981002/index.html

The lead-in ( phrase used with malice aforethought ) was "America to the rescue"
Clinton PlanClinton SavesClintonClintonsave your time, don't bother to read this.
This is a MOP bulletin.

http://www.smh.com.au:80/news/9810/01/text/business10.html

Japan not even open yet

gold..

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif

the crude one...

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha65.gif

what do you see grasshopper?

Repeat from yesterday: She said on WSW that gold is just having a "dead cat bounce."

Highhopes

Dollar expected to fall against other currencies on U.S. rate concerns.

U.S. stocks expected to decline as world slowdown threatens earnings.

unemployment rate up .1%

falls on the 16th of October...the fires have been lit here at Cuervo Central...the anti-Clintler and anti-Camdesess the dog defiler candles have been lit...the spirits will do battle that week...

A prediction...the markets will tumble and bad tidings and happenings will befall the Coward Erect and the dog defiler...

This will be the month of their downfall...a gulp to seal the fates...

when viewed in hindsight. At 49 on the XAU, he said we were going to rocket down to 35. Don't get me wrong I like the guy, I just think that for the train to leave the station on a new bull run, there has to be those that are still looking for lower lows. If he is wrong, at what point does he change his count and say buy PM's and the XAU, after the XAU has moved up 90% off the lows? Thats only 20% more than where we are now.
I like the fact that so many are doubting this advance. The contrarian in me is lovin this. At least Prechter is looking for a ( so called ) countertrend rally in to the , what mid 300's. The time to get invested in PM stocks was ( and Is ) last month and NOW! IMHO.

The maths are daunting. Around 60 percent of Brazil's R$340bn ( $290bn ) domestic debt is linked to OVERNIGHT RATES. Last week's increase to nearly 50 per cent therefore has the effect of adding $70bn a year - or 9% of gross domestic product - to an already unsustainable budget deficit of 7 per cent. As if that were not enough, much of the debt is of extremely short maturity: about $90bn is due to be repaid in the next two months. Given the outlook on the deficit, it is touch and go whether investors will be willing to lend large sums of new money. Indeed, today's weekly debt auction has been cancelled because of the turmoil.

.Another option would be to ask the International Monetary Fund for a bailout. Unfortunately, the fund does not have enough cash to underwrite the entire debt coming due. And, while it would probably be willing to subscribe a smaller sum, an inadequately-funded rescue package would risk being blown away by the market.

The remaining options are, if anything, even more ghastly: a debt moratorium while Brazil tries to negotiate a lengthening of its maturity profile; or the imposition of Malaysian-style capital controls.
Brazil is living on borrowed time."

Brazil is not living on borrowed time...it is already dead...and those that have the $'s out know it...so does AG & RR.

The derivative and liquidity crisis is upon us...now. Duck ( as in gold )

What is an SDR...not an SDRer. : )

Tom

I have read the postings regarding my Gold commentary of October 2 here on Kitco with interest. I have a couple of point to make.

Kitcat ( 10/04 13:05 ) If I may, I'll quote you: "there is no greater power than our combined BELIEF in that which is true and that which is obviously counterfeit."

In the first place, the paper money which you allude to here is not OBVIOUSLY counterfeit. If it's dishonest nature is obvious to you, my congratulations. But it is not at all obvious to the vast majority of your fellow men and women.

And in this matter, belief won't help you, or them. If you KNOW what money is, then you know that what you and I carry around in our wallets ain't it. If you KNOW the reasons why Gold was discovered to be best suited to money's function, that of being a medium of exchange, then you know why it has been systematically banished from circulation as such over the past 65 years. And if you KNOW that nothing has an "intrinsic" value, that in economics, value is literally in the eye of the beholder, then you know why "confidence" must be maintained in the current financial system at all costs.

The corollary then becomes obvious - the price of Gold must be kept down too.

Voyeur Professor ( 10/04 13:05 ) I did not say, and have never said, that if Gold rises from here it would comfirm the equity bear. Which equity bear? Technically, the one in Japan was confirmed in 1990. The ones in Asia almost a year ago. In regard to U.S. markets, here are the headlines of the market page in three consecutive issues of the Privateer ( #354, 355, 356 - published on August 2, 16 and 30 ) .

TOPSIDE RUMBLES

THE TOP OF THE DOW

AFTER THE TOP OF THE DOW

Technically, the signs were certain that the Dow had topped by mid August and that it had entered a bear market by the end of August.

Also, I didn't say that the fact that Gold has bottomed does not mean that we will see a Gold bull. If I may quote myself, I said: "A technical confirmation of a "bottom", and the start of a bull market, do not necessarily coincide."

On the $US Gold charts, the signs of a Gold bottom are very strong, but not as strong as the signs which pointed to a Dow top in mid-August. There is no sign yet of a $US Gold bull market. I think that $US Gold has bottomed, so do a lot of other people, to judge from the boom in Gold stocks over the past month. When I see a defined uptrend in $US Gold, I will have the technical criteria to say that a Gold bull has begun.

My concern with the XAU is the fact that it has moved so much farther and faster than gold itself. If the metal doesn't jump very soon the XAU could slump. Right now the XAU/Spot Ratio is .264 which is a neutral reading usually. At .300 and above I am very worried.

I think Yvan Auger will change his mind when the XAU hits 35 ( ;^ ) ) .

I agree with what you say about Elliott Waves being a really good tool in reading
the past. Unfortunately, when wave counting in real time ( since the wave assignments are very subjective ) the prejudice of the person reading the waveforms frequently comes into play - I have noticed this in my own use of wave counting.

It appears to me that this may be the current case with Mr. Auger, although this may be too harsh a
judgement. I do agree with him that a pullback
below 71 would be a very bad signal.

Permit me to remind everyone that on August 22, 1997, as reported in that day's Bangkok Post, Camdessus said that the worst of the crisis was over for Thailand.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/eb.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/b7.html

The US share of the global economy has steadily declined, from over 40 percent after World War II, to slightly less than 20 percent today. As other nations now account for an increasingly significant proportion of the world economy, one can no longer expect any single country to play the role of global standard currency. With the increased prominence of the yen in the global economy, as well as the emergence of the ECU, the participants considered the future of the international financial system having more than one main reserve currency.
"participants voiced concern about the emerging economic imbalances between Asia and the United States. A pattern of trade has emerged wherein the US consumes a vast proportion of Asia's exports..
If China and Japan continue to export vast quantities of goods  the US dollar may have to devalue relative to the yen and the RMB."
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/BRIE/forum/summary.html

Thursday the XAU/Spot Ratio closed at .264. Friday the close was .276

Willy Nilly. That is to say, they tend to suspend disbelief in the reality of your own personal experience, reasoning, and instinct for self-preservation.

Americans went along to get along because getting along was rewarded. The truth is their reward was funded by a plan for the utter enslavement of their posterity. We, in the generations now living, are of that posterity and the rattle of our shackles can be discerned by the keener ears among us. Here dey come wid dee Massa's Card. Anybody running a business is already chained up by EPA, OSHA, IRS, BLS, and the rest of the alphabeters to a degree scarcely imagineable by the inexperienced. Lawyers, unionists, and democrat party activists are not yet satisfied, however, that the central economic challenge of our time, distribution of production, is being met.

The dumbest people in America have to be rank and file Republicans and sympathetic Independents. Actually, intellectually, they are probably the smartest. I believe, however, that propaganda has its greatest effect on the most intelligent, those who believe they are least affected. I daresay there is almost a perfect correllation between pride and belief in the Moon Walk and Republican affiliation.

When events like the bailout of Savings and Loans, Mexico, and Long Term Capital Management come along and the gullible go on reading the WSJ and believing as if The American Way was a phrase still connected with reality on any level, you just have to wonder. They just seem capable of swallowing any Lie whole so long as it is government issue. If their "representative" told them them the gold robbed from the people by FDR was in the Social Security Trust Fund, they'd believe it. It will take something to wake the sleep walking among us.

then Klinton can get some more inappropriate relations going again. Isn't his favorite time when everyone except interns are sent home?

then Klinton can get some more inappropriate relations going again. Isn't his favorite time when everyone except interns are sent home?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx
and when you get to the second link look at the chart of Dec. gold Daily.
http://router.minot.com/
Donald, look at the relationship of the XAU's decline relative to Gold itself. My response to you would be that the PM stocks went well below where they should have on the downside and are simply reversing that overshoot. From an Elliot wave perspective, which I like to use in conjunction with other things, ( mainly the sentiment extremes that I look for at Major turning points ) to validate what I believe is happening.
Look guys what is happening right now is once in a lifetime type stuff. If anyone thinks that whats going on can be fixed by giving 18 or even 180 billion to the IMF after all that has happened before, will make the problems just go away are deludeing themselves. One of the reasons that I think Elliot is Very useful right now is because of what is happening.
If ( and I believe it is ) this truly is the supercycle top, then Elliot wave will become very clear on what will happen next ( wave counts ) in the stock market. And it HAS!!! The decline has been TEXTBOOK Elliot wave. The 4th wave triangle was to be expected, and it looks like something out of an Elliot wave book.
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=60m&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu
My take on the Elliot wave on the XAU is we are in the 3rd of the 3rd. This is a good thing if you own PM stocks. Silver is just correcting its upmove and should take off very quickly. I don't think WB bought it for a Trade.
Silverbaron, I cetainly didn't mean to be harsh with respect to Auger.
As I siad above, I think the XAU is in a 3rd wave UP!!! From what I'm seeing on Kitco there is still a substansial wall of worry. After a 70% rally off the lows this is very very healthy.

in the boxes to get the chart.

Here is the repost regarding comparisons of '29 and now, both in terms of charts and the lunar cycle....

"I have noticed a relationship which I think could have enormous conseqences for the next 2 weeks or so.

There appears to be a coincidental relationship right now on 3 counts.

1. The chart price pattern from our July 17th peak 1998 to the current follows the 1929 peak to second mini peak pattern.

2. The downward trendline in both periods clarifies the relationship of the similarities of price patterns.

3. And perhaps most importantly, the phase of the moon due on this Monday the 5th 1998, will be a full moon. LIKEWISE, the phase of the Moon on October 18, 1929 was a full moon. But was is MOST striking is that in BOTH time periods, the point in the stock chart where the full moons occur shows an amazing correlation. It is right after we bounce off the downward trendline!

On Cctober 17th 1929 there was a reversal day UP just like we had this past Friday the 2nd Oct 1998, but on the 18th of 1929 the day of the full moon, there was a hard reversal down which retraced the whole previous days gain.

I guess if I had to go out on a limb and do some crazy one day prediction, I would say that Monday will bring a complete retracement of the Friday, Oct 2nd 1998 rally!!! And then the day after Tuesday should be a big GAP down which will mark the beginning of the panic cycle.

Most major panics in history have been fueled by the LACK of information further fueling fear. The LTCM situation and unknowns about what else is out there suffices as a crowd panic item."

can anyone comment on bmg? Anything positive or negative about this stock would greatly be appreciated?

My comment about being too harse on Mr. Auger was not directed at your commentary, but at my own.

I agree with your analysis that the current DOW pattern is textbook Elliott Wave - I just can't decide if we are entering a 3rd wave of a VERY big move down, or a 5th wave of a smaller ( but significant ) move.

I also agree with your statement about the XAU being in a 3rd wave - my concern is that this may only BE a 3 wave corrective pattern in an overall downtrend. This is what Auger has been saying since the August bottom. I think we will know the answer very shortly.

My comment about being too harsh on Mr. Auger was not directed at your commentary, but at my own.

I agree with your analysis that the current DOW pattern is textbook Elliott Wave - I just can't decide if we are entering a 3rd wave of a VERY big move down, or a 5th wave of a smaller ( but significant ) move.

I also agree with your statement about the XAU being in a 3rd wave - my concern is that this may only BE a 3 wave corrective pattern in an overall downtrend. This is what Auger has been saying since the August bottom. I think we will know the answer very shortly.

people I saw on TV over the weekend. First on Friday, a former Treasury Secretary was on. Now keep something in ming guys, they are more informed than the John Q. Public. .....He looked scared to death, and sounded like it too. Pleading for IMF funding. Kinda sounds like the 401K argument that All that money will keep things afloat. And there were a few others over the weekend, and they all looked as if they Knew something very dire indeed. We may be a lot closer to a meltdown than even we would care to admit. After seeing these guys, I'll say this again........I'm scared!
Got Gold!!!!

IMF warns world economic outlook has worsened

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday the global economic outlook had seriously worsened in recent months and urged member nations to do all they could to restore market confidence and boost growth.

``The outlook for the world economy has worsened considerably ... with a scaling down of prospects for growth of output and trade,'' the IMF's Interim Committee, the fund's policy-making forum, said in a statement.

( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon.

Sunday October 4, 8:14 pm Eastern Time

Tokyo stocks weaken in wake of G7 meeting

TOKYO, Oct 5 ( Reuters ) - Tokyo stocks weakened in early morning trade on Monday, after the Group of Seven ( G7 ) industrialised nations urged Japan over the weekend to boost its economy and clean up its debt-ridden banking sector.

They said market participants were cautious over what kind of steps the Japanese government would take to restore investor confidence.

At 0010 GMT, the Nikkei 225 average was down 162.41 points or 1.23 percent at 13,061.28. Nikkei December futures fell 240 points to 13,020.

I heard that Golden Star Resources has one of the largest Gold mines in
South America and that they have 11 million cash and no debt.
do any of you gold bugs know more. I hear is is trading at about
$1.75 a share I think I am going to buy a bunch.

.

Nasdaq's Zarb says worried by Year 2000 bug
Reuters, Sunday, October 04, 1998 at 18:32

BOCA RATON, Fla., Oct 4 - The head of the nation's second-largest stock market says he is worried by the looming millennium crisis, the software bug that threatens to crash the world's computers on January 1 of the year 2000, but that Nasdaq is preparing for battle. "I believe we're in good shape but I'm still worried," said Frank Zarb, the chairman of the National Association of Securities Dealers, parent of the Nasdaq stock market.
"We know, like everyone else does that there are going to be some crises," he said, "so we formed crisis teams that can parachute in after that day." Zarb spoke at the 65th annual convention of the Securities
Traders Association, a trade group, here at the posh Boca Raton Hotel & Beach Club, an enclave of palm trees, pools and golf courses a stone's throw from the Atlantic Ocean.
Nasdaq said it has spent more than $50 million so far combatting the millennium bug, spokesman Michael Jones said. In a move to save programming space, many older software systems were designed to read only the last two digits of the year, '98 for 1998. But when the digits flip to "00", many computer systems are expected to read the year as 1900 and
either spit out erroneous data or crash all together.

If we are close to a market meltdown......don't you think this is evidence that we have just completed wave 2 and are entering the typical fast ( panic ) drop period of a wave 3? The analysis that we are entering a wave 5 doesn't seem to fit the sentiment of the public - they seem to be nowhere near to capitulation ( yet ) .

Go gold!

Someone posted this the other day & I had not seen it before .... but I love it!

Ingot we trust!

All US Market futures are down, US Dollar Index is down .37, All metal futures EXCEPT gold are up! Is this manipulation?

could it be the boys from PPT working the other side of the street tonight? Can't prop up DOW so lets bang gold?

Same minute posting, but you got me beat....I'd say great minds think alike, but it's more that we're just furious over possible manipulation.

As for me and my house, I'll stick with "In God we trust."

Highhopes

I prefer "great minds think alike"...it has a better ring to it...

http://www.golden-knight.com/

Yes - and also in mine.

I do, however. think the other one is a rather catchy phrase.

Talked to another friend this evening who said he'd lost a bunch on the stock and mutual funds he was holding. The tone is getting more nervous out there, this particular friend has been the ultima-bull, the bull's bull, and he's thinking about cutting his loses. Said that he actually needed the money he lost, well, not that he needed it, but that he was sort of counting on it to do something. That is the kind of attitude that will make this thing "frenzy-sell" when the time is right.

is textbook Elliot. The first correction was simple, and this one is complex. But this could very easily be the 3rd of the 3rd wave begining. Again, hindsight will clear this up. Let me go out on a limb here. If we smash down hard here to 7000, it will change the psychology of this market. It may also complete wave 1. Wave 2 then would come at a time when fear is high, and after the market has started to rally, many analysts would point out the bearish sentiment. And call a bottom. WRONG!!!
It just feels like that is what will unfold right now to me, rather than the crash. Either way it is not good. As I said last week, it feels like we will wake up one morning and whats for breakfast will be what it will be, deal with it as we will. Got more gold?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Global_charts.htm

From Gold and markets page
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm

Year 2000 info
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k.htm

Alternative survival info
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alternative.htm

My comment is that it's a great company, and still a great buy, even though it's up from it's lows. Mind you all the gold stocks are for the mostpart. And while here I think they're not as cheap anymore ( BMG @6 is more expensive than BMG at 3 1/2 ) , they're still relatively really cheap. If/whe gold takes a run up, BMG is going with it. It's a solid company. Gold stocks are risky and volitile ( what isn't now ) , but a BMG, or PDG, is in my mind, the best way to sleep at night and invest in gold stocks at the same time. BMG got beaten down a couple of years ago when it paid a lot for Hemlo Gold. That's all been factored in by now. There is talk of Noranda selling BMG- why I'm not too sure. They are selling off a lot of their non mining assets ( the oils are all gone as of the Canadian Hunter distribution in January 99, and Noranda Forest at the same time ) , but gold is mining. Perhaps it's the lack of total control. Haven't heard too much on that lately. Anyways, no way they'ld sell it now with prices so depressed, that would be a losing venture. Back to the point- my opinion...love BMG.

are you sure the guy at Espin didn't just stick different flags on the same chart? It IS easier you know..

THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Second Amendment

'THE RIGHT OF THE PEOPLE TO KEEP ( Possess )
AND BEAR ( Carry )
ARMS ( Guns )
SHALL NOT BE INFINGED' ( Taken Away )

if this is a valid document...

why should any citizen NEED a license to carry a firearm?
does this document provide a license?

what has happened to our country? slowly......oh so slowly.
gold will be outlawed again....chaos and flux are guarantors
of more than most will be able to believe....

listen to your eyes....they are screaming....i hear the drums
beating tambien...dooooom.dooooooom.doodoo.dooooom.doooooom.doodoo

the locust have hatched....the brood the hungriest and largest
ever.....they stretch their drying wings.....and face the rising
sun....the japans...asia.....europe and more...cellulose is
the goal....the locust are out of control.

cherokee!;..melting.chocolate....munch.munch.munch..........

the financial turmoil will continue and gold will keep its legs.
G7 statement "bit empty", Soros says
Reuters, Sunday, October 04, 1998 at 17:12

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 ( Reuters ) - Billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros said on Sunday a statement by the Group of Seven major industrial nations had little content. Asked whether the statement issued on Saturday went far enough, Soros told reporters: "It sounded a little bit empty." He declined further comment as he came to the headquarters
of the International Monetary Fund. Soros has called for major industrial powers to cooperate more closely in trying to solve the world's financial crisis. washington.economic.newsroom@reuters.com ) )

Sounds real good. ..... Also sounds like a flack to me. If yer gonna pitch yer wares, ya gotta be a bit more subtle.

on the great masses that

a ) Politicians and "hired hands" like RR, AG, IMF etc are freightened to death and are completely ineffectual in moving whole economies quickly when needed....

b ) The stock Market is a manic bubble still waiting for a pin...

c ) Governments around the world exist only by robbing "the people"...

d ) The 80's expansion and the 90's "boom" is over...stagflation at best here on out a while.....depression at worst...

e ) Lifestyle is relative....and High Lifestyle will be hard to come by in the future.....


f ) The "Little Guy" always gets screwed somehow by the power elite...they have to....its the only way for the elite to survive and prosper...

Just went through 13,000 Now at 12975

They're knockin' it down a bit as a show of confidence in this weekend's big G7 confab. The world is so impressed with the G7 performance that they feel confident in selling all of their private gold holdings this evening. ...... GC8Z 301.80 down 1.00

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/fq.html

IMF bailing out Brazil Without Formal Request

The Japanese NIKKEI 255 just crashed below 13,000. I doubt this is a good sign for the world economy. Did anyone see "This Week" this morning when they brought up the Newsweek cover story, "The Crash of '99?"? Did you hear Sam Donaldson say, "sell everything"? I am starting to like Sam.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Trent Lott says White House intends to do it again, Well! Sure, why not, Clinton cares only about his own skin. What will a government shut down do for Gold this time? There are a completely different set of circumstances this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/b7.html

HighRise

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/fx.html

I just wanted to see if any one has info on GSR. I want to invest
in some minning gold stock, and someone told me how great it was
and how he had quadrupled his investment before in this particular
Gold minning stock..

Crazytimes: Carlan's lunar study fits well with my research.
Carlan focuses on when crashes end. My study concentrates on
when they begin. They tend to start at the time of full-moons,
especially solar-eclipses, and they tend to end near new-moons.

In Europe and Asia, the present decline began 1 day after the
solar-eclipse in early September. The DJIA has held out 1
month longer than other markets around the globe. The full-
moon tomorrow should put the DJIA back into the bearish-phase
prevelent worldwide.

Carlan's study, then, suggests that between October 5th and
October 19th, there will be a tremendous global stock market
crash.

See this week's Barron's ( page 45 ) where I show how volume
enters into the picture.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

man cannot stop that which he started....
the pendulum swings toward the out-stretched
necks of the livers of lies.......hmmmm..livers of lies....yes..

their liver is probably scirratic too....!; ) ..or will be soon.

i hear the rush of my friend the wind as passage is made
by the blade.......i welcome its' hoary breath....the
warmth of the peopleo pressing toward it....sickening
and inexorable....as orson well's time machine...the
peopleo came when the taskmasters called........

AWAY peopleo....i've gold and silver to see to..
i see a glow on the horizon.....it is golden and spreading...

cherokee!;..riding.high..looking.back...seeing.forward...weeeeeeeeee.

Crash potential does seem to be the highest this week, based on the lunar calendar AND the similarity to the '29 chart. ( I'm no chartist but have seen the comparisons )

I suggest that you begin your due diligence with the companies SEC filings. You can find these at no charge here:
http://www.freeedgar.com/companies/index.htm

Happy hunting.

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Looks like you're getting your Hong Kong drop, -318.59 -4.04% last I looked.

I think Japan has run out of whatever slush funds they were using to prop up their market. Last week they pushed the Nekkei up 500+ points in a single session or thereabouts a couple of times. Reminds me of a battle wherein those about to run out of ammo fire everything they have in a frenzied attempt to feign strength.

Since those big sessions their PPT action has been very weak and ineffective. Saturday's meeting tends to confirm my suspicions the
Nippon PPT has run out of gas or will very soon.

I think the big meeting Saturday was nothing more than a PR gesture for
leaders to cover their asses. Now Klinton can claim he tried to get funding but it was denied him.

Once the bankruptcy of Japan becomes apparent to the average investor the world markets are going to have convulsions. The PPT can't spin this into a positive so they are going to have their hands full.

I can't get onto Yahoo right now. An omen?

.

If you want to know whats going on with BMG, e-mail me at
oakheart@swbell.net. I'm not about to get sued for accidentally
misquoting the s-3 form Noranda filed Friday. Suffice it to say,
the possibility of a hugh number of shares being sold is a very
real possibility. I was going to wait until I bailed in the morning,
AND I MIGHT BE WRONG!, but if someone had access to this information,
I would sure appreciate being at least warned about it.

Try Bloomberg at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/asia.html

All: Just in case you didn't know, Clinton just got support from Britain and, France to 'reform' the IMF. Looks like this is going to happen instantly, and the IMF is going to bail out Brazil -- 30 billion package expected, to be announced after the Brazil elections.

Wonder where the money is going to come from -- the IMF gold?

Wait a minute -- Japan is going to new lows, and Hong Kong is plummeting. If this is to be a miraculous turning point as WJC predicts, why is Japan and Hong Kong going the wrong way?

My guess is that the next twenty four hours are pivotal -- either the the IMF reforms itself, and comes up with the money to bail out Brazil -- and the markets believe it and rally for a while -- or the downward spiral contines. The PPT better do double-time tonight to fix things up again.

Well, perhaps the rest of the world does not believe WJC anymore.

"mulling"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/f7.html

here's another place for all sorts of quotes

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/gfa.htx?source=htx/dbc

Reading is an "art" not mastered by many. Come to think of it, so is listening. : )

Tom

jorlin....

manias and messengers of the eternal stock bull...

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/apocalyp.htm

Now I know What I am going to do monday.

Any thoughts on trading strategies Gold/silver/SnP for the week? TIA...

I bought some Dec 99 Gold calls ( thanks to Cherokee ) . Can the seller of the option ( a hedge fund perhaps ) default on it, leaving me with nothing? Or do I have any protection against this? Seeing this is October, I may need to find out fast.

Wall St collapse could trigger global deflationary spiral
By Tony Boyd, Tokyo Japan's worst post-war recession was a problem for the global economy but the biggest threat was the bursting of the American bubble economy, according to a leading Japanese economist.
Mr Yuji Shimanaka, the chief economist at Sanwa Research Institute, said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review, that a Wall Street collapse would trigger a recession in the United States, which in turn would cause a worldwide deflationary spiral.
"The reason I think the American economy is a bubble economy is that the US has a current account deficit of $US200 billion and a savings rate of 0.2 per cent," he said.
"The American economy expanded for the past seven years with this debt and it basically was supported by high leverage of stocks and high levels of the US dollar."
He said US investors were more exposed to Wall Street in 1998 than they were at the time of the Black Monday sharemarket crash in October 1987.
In 1987, US investors aged 35 and over had direct and indirect holdings in stocks equal to 14 per cent of the market whereas today their direct and indirect exposure is 35 per cent of the market.
Mr Shimanaka said deflation was already a feature of the world commodities market and combined with the US stockmarket bubble there was a striking resemblance to the global economy in 1929.
When Wall Street collapsed in 1929 it triggered a collapse in US demand, which in turn fuelled an outbreak of protectionism in countries around the world.
He said that between 1929 and 1933 stock prices fell to one sixth their previous level and world trade slumped to one third its previous level.
"At the moment we don't see any move towards protectionism, but what I am concerned about is the deflation in the commodity market in parallel with the US bubble economy," he said.
He warned that a recession in the US could accelerate the deflation in primary producer markets and cause a debt crisis in Latin America.
Mr Shimanaka said Australia and Canada would not be immune from a deflationary spiral in primary products.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/981005/market/markets7.html

Get out the papers you signed and reread them carefully. Of the 5 contracts I inspected before signing, all of them had a provision
that basically stated that if they declared bankruptcy, I would hold them harmless. The bankruptcy laws will protect the underwriters of these options and futures if there is a major meltdown. Of course you always have recourse to legal remedies. Suggest something a little more tangible than paper promises.

Y2K and Gold Production  A Bird in the Hand

The possible disruptions to energy production and distribution from the Y2K problem make a compelling argument to hold bullion or coins instead of mining equities during the affected period. Consider the following simplistic cost model for the production of gold bullion.

POGB = POMO + POOM + POGE + POR + other

POGB = Price of Gold Bullion
POMO = Price of Mining Ore; Surface or Deep, requires Diesel fuel and electricity
POOM = Price of Ore Milling; crushing, requires electricity
POGE = Price of Gold Extraction from Ore; cyanide or electrolytic, requires electricity
POR = Price of refining Gold; furnace melting, requires electricity, LPNG, etc.
other = Regulatory Costs, Labor, Mining Rights, capital equipment, depreciation, profits, etc.

The amount of energy necessary in each gold mining/extraction/refinement step is comprised of enormous Btu equivalents of electricity, natural gas, Diesel fuel. The current natural gas disruption in Australia underscores the fragility of the energy distribution and production capabilities in the world. In the Cherokee Petroleum Price Model ( CPPM ) , these Btus will increase dramatically from todays values due to Y2K based shortages or War. The cost of production for the gold producers will increase commensurately. Therefore, I submit that the POGB at todays cost to the doorstep is an enormous value which should not be overlooked while you contemplate your next gold equity position.

I wonder if they also keep spare tires around for those big earth movers? Hmmmmm

not good not good at all

Would soeone kindly point me to where I can find a discussion group on platinum. It seems that platinum has lost its lustre and interest with the kitco group and I am dieing for dialogue on its expected performance, as Gold starts its long awaited rise.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^HSI&d=1ys

HighRise

10:56PM  7567.66
Change
-315.80 ( -4.01% )

HighRise

,

What if they are trying to prop up the market?
AG said that he had been assurd that they were not going to do that any more.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

HighRise

Hong Kong
Hang Seng
^HSI
11:06PM
7543.65
-339.81
-4.31%

Kitco is slowing down again! And few posts?

HighRise

Washington DC must have been a FUN weekend!
IMF prescription no longer universal -Japan says

WASHINGTON, Oct 5 ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund's traditional prescription for troubled economies of fiscal and monetary discipline may not be appropriate for new types of troubles like the Asian crisis, a Japanese Finance Ministry official said on Sunday.

``Asking a country with a fiscal surplus to tighten further or asking a country to adopt a high interest rate policy for the sake of exchange rate protection could end up with more negatives than positives -- inviting a downturn in the economy and further erosion of confidence,'' he said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981004/bk.html

Can either of you enlighten me about the differences between options on gold "futures" vs options on physical gold.

The options on physical seem straight forward enough to understand, but I was on comex site last night looking at price spreads for options on gold futures, and I don't understand the difference.

In addition, are both of these american style?

thanks

No, don't bother, they're already here!

I'll repeat, deflation can't be reversed or stopped by any politician or central banker regardless of any bail outs. It will run to exhaustion and this is a long term process. It's scary but necessary to wipe out most debts world wide and start the cycle over based on honest money ( gold ) . Interest rates will decline to very low levels ( just like in Japan ) and the stock market and commodities will decline along with it. I would not pay any attention to news any longer. All you need to know is that we are in a Primary Dow Theory Confirmed Bear Market. If the primary trend changes , I'll report it to the group. Have a good week and be happy.

Maybe its just that Asia is flat broke and can afford to buy any gold tonight.If gold doesnt spike up when Europe awakens then I would agree that something fishy is going on.But then again its been fishy for the last decade..

I'll repeat, deflation can't be reversed or stopped by any politician or central banker regardless of any bail outs. It will run to exhaustion and this is a long term process. It's scary but necessary to wipe out most debts world wide and start the cycle over based on honest money ( gold ) . Interest rates will decline to very low levels ( just like in Japan ) and the stock market and commodities will decline along with it. I would not pay any attention to news any longer. All you need to know is that we are in a Primary Dow Theory Confirmed Bear Market. If the primary trend changes , I'll report it to the group. Have a good week and be happy.

winston.
what strike?

anything can happen...the trick is knowing when to
hold & when to fold...

80+% of options expire worthless...
use your OWN mind....and listen to your eyes...they are screaming..

fixing to buy some more gold calls monday morn.....crude too...

going to shoot the rest of the powder..now's the time..immb...in my mind.

klinton......it's the economy stupid...guess he won't take credit for it now.....will swear he never had ANYthing to do with it....

cherokee!;..listening.to.my.eyes..........c'est francais..
...c'est bon..yar.

Puetz- I am not sure you are playing with a full deck. And there have been times when I have been accused of the same. At the same time, I really hope you are right!!!
Winston- Don't worry about your money. Your brokerage firm is rerquired to carry insurance.

Highrise, I never told my wife about the 200k that I was down and I have gotten 95k back in the past 3 weeks.

To all- What in the hell are the leaders of the G7 nations doing at a meeting, when the world financial situation is possibly very close to collapsing,and adjourning it without ANY kind coordinated effort to fix it?
Answer-They are all asking each other questions because They do not know what to do !! So they are going to sit back and watch!!!

One of them will figure it out someday. In the meantime they should BUY GOLD!!!

If you're interested in the lunar calendar stuff and autumn panics, the gentleman on Silicon Investor ( Thomas C ) just put together these charts. It shows that in '29, the full moon retraced the previous day's rally and then started the panic to the low of 55 hours before the new moon. Tommorrow is the full moon folks.

http://members.tripod.com/~trc4949/bigkahuna.html

If you want an investors view of GSR I would try http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-8838 but I must warn it is probably on the bullish side.

http://www.freeedgar.com/search/ViewSwitch.asp?CIK=771498&FormType=S-3/A&SFType=&DateFiled=10/2/98&SDFiled=&Directory=890566&Year=98&SECIndex=1674&Extension=.tst&PathFlag=0&CompanyName=BATTLE_MOUNTAIN_GOLD_CO&CallingPage=ViewFilingsContent&SourcePage=FilingsResults

hope this works!! I'm going to bed. You may have to kinda fix this,
but you get the idea.

If you want an investors view of GSR I would try http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-8838 but I must warn it is probably on the bullish side.

If you want an investors view of GSR I would try http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-8838 but I must warn it is probably on the bullish side.

http://www.networkusa.org/fingerprint/page3/fp-landmine-leg-clair-wolf.html

NTEOTWAWKI
T'is a good post.
I keep harping here about the coming effect of Y2k on mining companies.
No one as yet knows which compamies will survive Y2k.
Investor beware.

Randomwalker
Sure looks like it.
And they're the stong European bourses.
You should see what the others look like.
Real basket cases.

A failure at the levels will precipitate a massive crash.
Coming soon to a town near you.


My Biggest Worry
http://www.zdnet.com/pcmag/special/y2k/features/worry/348800.htm

that C-span had Fridays Y2K gov't committee program on today. Robert
Bennett, Chris Dodd, Gov of Utah, Gov of Lubbock Tx, head of National Guard,
a guy who was head of communications for the police in California, 2nd or
3rd down in Fema. All the big guns. That is all I can think of. Bennett
was chairman.
Anyway, the head of police communications held up a cellular phone and said
"This will not work" and then held up a VHF and said this will work and this
is what we will use. He did not say anything about the regular phone system,
in fact it was not mentioned at all at anytime. National guard, Fema are
getting ready for the emergencies. They usually respond to unscheduled
emergencies but y2k is scheduled and they are preparing for it. The phrase
that was mostly used was "the organizations were concerned with sick and
elderly and taking care of population"
The theme also now is turning towards making the people more aware of the
Y2k problem and numerous new booklets are now being printed to inform the
people.
Bennett asked each one "what would happen if Y2K was tomorrow". Each one
beat around the bush and did not answer the question. National Guard is
making arrangements with whatever branches of state governments,to do
whatever they do, whenever they are needed to do it but they don't have
enough money. So, Clinton is going to send 18 billion to the IMF, and they
don't have enough money for the National Guard. Guess they will have to
print some. Fema, they are getting ready to take care of everything.
...Guess they have unlimited funds. ..

3455 Austrian Schillings, 10130 Belgian Francs, 488000 Bulgarian Lev,

139000 Chilean Pesos, 1647 French Francs, 84980 Greek Drachmas,

12590 Indian Rupees, 3200000 Indonesian Rupiahs, 486000 Italian Lira,

40381 Japanese Yen, 16100 Pakastani Rupees, 50400 Portuguese Escudos,

4762 Russian Rubles. 412900 South Korean Won, 41700 Spanish Pesetas,

10200 Taiwan Dollars, 11760 Thai Baht, 82000000 Turkish Lira, 170000

Venezuelan Bolivar, 595000 Zambian Kwacha. ( Being in such company makes

the Russian Ruble look good. Anyone wanting a gold bar must add two

zeroes to each of the above. )

will be able get together over the weekend and agree to a solution to the world's economic problems. As a result, world markets improved slightly Friday on the hope that this could be achieved. But they were set up for a fall. The news is out. G7 can do nothing.

Starting in Japan and Hong Kong where sellers have completely overwhelmed government attempts to shore up markets, tonight we see the beginning of the next phase of stock market repricing as the reality sets in that the G7 not likely to be able to do anything in time to end the implosion. Reading over the major US newspapers from this weekend ( NYT, San Fran Chronicle, Boston Globe, Chicago Tribrune, Miami Herald, etc. ) historic Q3 stock market losses and the grave condition of the world economy is the story. The same press that egged on investors to pile money in to the inflated stock market are now whipping up hysterical anxiety.

Will the average investor stay in there? The Boston Globe asks investors, "What to do with your portfolio now? How about sell?" The argument is that the market is likely to continue down so now's a time to "lock in your losses" and use your paper losses to offset employment income. This is the SAME writer that was telling investors two months ago how the prudent investor ignores the market and can expect 9% average returns over 20 years in the market. Brave and fashionable words in a bull market. Unpopular and foolhearty now.

So much for buy and hold.

This is October. Crash month. The stage is set. Fear and loathing is the order of the day.

This is the Information Age. It will be different this time. Instantaneous. Boom, boom, boom. Out go the lights.

-EJ