To send a bit of money to Bart to help debug this site?
If we send him the price of a waiting-room magazine subscription, or even one half, maybe he can hire someone to analyse the prolemO's and repair them.
Twenty depreciated USD are in the mail to KitcO from me; Won't you please support the ailing goldbugs of the whirl?
Even if you can only afford five dollars, it would help get this thingy corrected, and back on the path to a healthier life.
..........Please Give..... , Your financial stake is at risk........

"It's the economy Stupid"
Report on the World economy!

HighRise

http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/zdnn_smgraph_display/1,4436,2146050,00.html
Imagine that every household in the nation pulled $1,000 in cash out of the bank, just out of fear that Y2K might shut down the ATM or temporarily foul up checking and saving accounts. This total amount of extra cash needed would be approximately $98 billion -- enough to seriously drain the liquidity from many banks in the process.

If this ever came to pass, such a run on the banks could present a much greater threat than any actual damage caused by Y2K-related computer problems.

To speed matters up, once the Kitco page is loaded click on your "Stop" icon repeatedly until it is grayed out. That will extinguish the machinations of the "black thingy" and allow moving about the page normally.

I agree that we should all buck up for posting rights to Kitco. I have brought this up before and Bart never responded.

If you cannot afford $50 for all this great economic and gold analysis then you cannot be a serious investor.

Whatever it takes, but something has to be done! This site just gets worse. Bart keeps promising new charts a new server and other things to make this site better but it never happens.

I have stopped trying to posts - it is a complete waste of time. By the time I post news it is not news any more. Many times, by the time a window opens I have forgotten what I was going to post.

I believe this just a makes the system crash more. One has time to go get a cup of coffe or wash the car while waiting for Kitco.

Then there are the long multiple posts made by posters that tie up the system for ten mins or more.

I have e-mailed Bart and he has promised to resolve the problems, but it just seems to get worse every day.

HighRise

ditto here too. I bought some Mounties to show appreciation, but I'd buy posting rights too. If the gold bull really gets going, we'll never get on here and we'll go through withdrawal. Here's a good post I stole from Silicon about the charts.

"Mega Kahuna Alert"

The SPX has penetrated below the 34 week ( 170 days ) Bollinger Band for the first time since the beginning of the bull run in 95. At the same time the 34 week mean has begun to decline.

In the bull market this kind of move penetrating the upper band has generally been sustained with the band and mean rising for months. This is what happened in the Spring bull-run this year.

In other words this is a mirror image of a bull run beginning to form. A "bear-run" or crash. It's just at the right point for a 1929 re-run. Each move so far this year is 1929 at about half speed. We haven't yet broken that pattern.

Of course this is just in terms of probabilities nothing deterministic.

According to Donald's XAU/Au, and your input, We should be careful about our exuberance with the goldstocks. I am a pervert, and I would like to see a 287.00 POG, just for the chance at the ones that I missed. Dry powder in the hands of an itchy trigger finger.
I am not holding my breath, however.
Just one more chance at TVX for two bucks, PLEEEEASE.

It is 2.30PM Sydney time and spot is 302.20. Anyone have a guess to what will happen in next 24 hours? --DUMB QUESTION !!

Bango, it just went fast. ----No good reason, other than the bugs went home to revisit tomorrow.
I'm serious, I sent Bart some money the last time the site crapped out. I will do it again, because I value what is put up here. Yourselves certainly included, BTW.
The note to the secretary is on her desk, -------PONY UP SOME FUNDS TO BART'S site. Ten or Twenty from the guys and gals would save you a hundred-fold. ( As in today? )

The silence is deafening.

"Don't tamper with us, no matter who, don't even try! I will personally resent it if anybody tries to tamper with these jurers."

Bill and Hillary better not call this Democrat!

HighRise

If its not an up day for gold tomorrow, it never will be. A turn may have come in which the dollar is no longer as safe a "currency" haven as gold. We'll get at least part of the answer tomorrow. go gold.

It is interesting that right after I e-mail Bart the site quickens?

I am willing to send him a couple of bucks, but I am not sure that is the problem?

HighRise

If you get a chance watch c-span Sen Byrd's statement is great!

HighRise

Thanks -- guess what you say makes sense. going gold

We stand on the edge. I think an October our grandchildren will read about someday.

Everything in any normal economic system would be shouting "BUY GOLD", but this is nothing of the sort.
My best advice to you is to watch GC98Z on quote.com This seems to be a decent indicator if you are aking about mining stocks.
If you are asking about physical gold, then I would say to watch it even closer. The bears here say that Au can go to 200.USD, but, I cannot dream up the circumstances for that, given the statements of the fearless leader types around the whirl.
I have bought some at 310. in April. The premium has gone up enough that those purchases are not so far underwater. ( older semi-numismatic stuff )
I have been annoyed with myself in the times that everything was super-cheap, and I didn't move.
Move, if you are convinced, but, DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT.

Has something changed today? Interest rates are UP?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm f

HighRise

Coincidence...... That speed has a lot to do with the site ending the transmission in a short time. Just watch the two things that kill it:
Black animated thingy,
The no stop at the end of transmission when the stuff at the bottom of the page hangs.

Always hit ESCAPE, when you are done loading.
RJ beat me to it when black thingy was hanging, and he said it showed 95K left to load.
I couldn't reply, 'cause I was trying to kill it.

Hold on

Japan lost ALL of the gains it made yesterday! A few weeks ago that much intervention would have lasted for several weeks. The Japanese and/or US
PPT has just pissed away several billion for a one day ride on the Nikkei. This can't go on much longer. A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you starting to talk about real money.

Just heard on the grapevine that 100 million Japanese are about to use the free $300 Gov't handout;

To buy GOLD & SILVER.

Comex beware.

This is a happening ! Japan is selling U.S. Gov. bonds, big time.

Well I think we all know what Nero did when Rome burned, and now we
all know that Clintlner will go down in history, as playin with Cigars while the world economy burned...

@Delphi Americans, unless it's their place of family origin, have no idea of the Balkans or its history or of the Slav Movement in Russian history. Anything a talking head says is believed. Making propaganda for Americans to swallow on Bosnia and Balkans in general is easier than making chocolate chip cookies.

@George If you witness a crime and don't do anything, you are poop. If you get excited because of images on TV, images that can be selected and edited and even staged just to excite you, you are gullible, I think, if you give it any more credit than you would a commercial. Howcum if it's plain to see that your local cop is not a caped crusader for truth, justice, and the American Way, your world cop will be any better. The Feds seem to have a dog in every fight on the planet. But, then you remember that the Tutsi and Hutu chopped on each other and Foggy Bottom managed not to mount a Crusade and it's obvious to me, anyway, that we don't have a clue as to why they want to get us excited over this or that dogfight. If people want to volunteer to go to the dogfight on one side or the other, I say let them. But, bring the troops stateside.

@Yen Other than something immediate and obvious, like when a government buys its own paper or raises the rate of usury it pays to borrowers of its paper, the reasons published for the rise and fall of national paper make no sense. I think this lack of consistent, rational expectation is, fundamentally, why the floating exchange regime is inherently unstable and self-destructive. Volatility and irrationalilty should, if my surmise is correct, steadily increase. At least until Jan.

The crash is arriving in grand style, bonds, dollar and stocks. That only leaves one safe place to go which is the subject of our forum. Our time has come Gold Bulls. Let's enjoy the ride.

thanks for taking the time to repost, i appreciate it. i copied it for later perusal.

thanks for taking the time to repost, i appreciate it. i copied it for later perusal.

Well, Mr. Diemaker, how's business?
As a moldmaker, I can tell you that the BS artists on the FederalReserve asswipe machine are lying about the state of the economy.
We are a small company that directly competes with overseas suppliers of high precision rubber molds. The ultra-high precision o-ring business is dead. The buyers are the chip-makers.
We have displaced the Japanese and Germans in our line, but they are tanking too.
I noticed something in "Investor's Business Daily" quoting the Fedhed of Chicago, saying that there is nothing wrong with manufacturing in the US.
Alongside of this drivel was a blurb about manufacturing unemployment rising 97% from August. Any fool that puts even the slightest credence in gommint statistics in an economist, or an ass.
Sorry, the ass doesn't use paper money.

and it has not even been updated for Wed's close of $9.37 http://www.quicken.com/investments/charts/?symbol=BEARX

Did you note the S&P 500 Futures Premium
Open-high-low-close

on
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm

ANOTHER insideous bug???

It appears that the situation now exists where the world has entered another critical phase that is beyond the normal inflation/deflation scenarios. A lack of confidence now exists around the world and will soon spread into the United States as layoffs and liquidity problems grow.

I posted here several months ago that a liquidity crises was developing around the world - well it is has happened.

There is an incredible amount of cash still remaining out there, that is looking for a safe haven. And I ask you where can it go?

Industrials and Techs - No, their profits are crashing and they are already at high PE multiples.

Bonds at 4% - No, this is not safe, bonds could go to 6% and hurt investors badly.

What is left?

Unlike any other time, Gold and Gold in the ground is the only safe place to put one's money. And it is cheap! At $300 one has the potential of at least a 30% gain, where else can one find that kind of gain in this world right now?

Remember, there are only so many ounces of Gold and shares of Gold mining companies.
My belief is that when all of this cash starts chasing those few ounces and shares prices are going to skyrocket.

Supers calls for inflation this week and Goldman Sachs recommends ABX & NEM.
Van Eck Hard Assets fund has moved from 8% to 25% in Gold this week..

My guess is that the only way the big boys can get some of their money back is through the increase in Gold.

They have to inflate the economies, they have to print money - these are always the last ditch efforts of those in control as deflation spreads.

IMHO, we have a fear/panic mentality developing now.

Impeachment today will just add to the atmosphere as the public begin to understand that things are not well.

One of my accounts increased $8k today, they are rotating into Gold shares.

I ask you, where else is there to go?

HighRise

PS: Question, did this post slow down the site?

thanks for advise. instinct tells me in my 25 years of following the yellow metal that now is it's time. in the long run honesty prevails and that goes for exchange systems as well !

The Bull and the Bear monikers applied to gold are all screwed up. A goldbug is a gold bull. What is a gold bear ? A paperbug ?

All
It's been a long time since there were ALL little green arrows pointing the direction for my precious.


In late breaking GOLD news ( not on the net yet ) Scientists at Massey University ( NZ ) have stated they have bred "phytotropic" ( ? ) plants whose roots actually seek gold. The gold is transported through the plant to its leaves, which are then dried and burnt, then sifted for gold.

( I wonder if you smoke it, it'll help arthritis? )


Once I get a confirming URL I shall post it.


aurator_@Smoke_em_if_U_got_em_GO_GOLD~~

I can't wait to hear the CNN spin on this tomorrow.

While we enjoy the fruits of the physical gold bull.

Watch out that the paper gold bull doesn't burn with all the other paper bulls.

When the herd bolts the door - real soon I'd guess.
Everybody's going to get burnt one way or another.

My swing chart's pointing to a climatic tank coming real soon.

Beware paper holders - bewarned.

Will your paper survive.

My Father was a Die Maker, and as a result I have always followed the machine tool orders as as a leading indicator.

Come to think about it, I have not heard a recent report for some time.

HighRise

Nikkei up 6% yesterday, now down over 5%. What the hell is going on? Was LTCM short Japanese Equities too? The rest of Asia is still up though. I think a message was delivered today, kill the US dollar and the rest of the world is saved. Maybe the Japanese were doing a last ditched Kamikase dive to prove the point?

S & P 500 ( CME ) ( Globex )
Dec
978.50
985.10
971.70
975.50b
-3.50
10/7/98
22:21

This will change dramatically later this AM.

HighRise

One of the more boring career paths for the professional propagandist.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:33PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
3 downers in a row again. Means the ancient one will be layin in ambush
tomorrow, looking for the buy to come along.: ) Just wonder if it'll last
more than a day.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:34PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
wonder if they'll stretch it down far enough to pick up some 945's. I'd buy
a ton of em if i got a chance.

barbarian . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:35PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
i would like to know more about what oleman meant buy 'return the stocks to
the rightfull owners'..paraphrase at best....but this is a termonology I
have heard before....I think it has something to do with value....wish I had
a good memory...alas poor York....toooo many rucks and mauls.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:35PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dgoto: Wish I'da bot Yen 'stead of SF last week.: )

dgoto . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman, IT was Impressive

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:38PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
barb: means the fokes who get into the mkt late in a bull ALWAYS sell their
stocks near the bottom of the bull to the fokes mits said lowery said were
buying here. They're the rightful owners. They paint the bars like 1/12,
6/16, and 9/1.

dgoto . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:39PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman, I was watching the currency traders there were speechless in shock.
Last night there was a lot of hype about Big buys from the BIG players ready
to smash the yen to 135 when it was playing around 129.50.. A bloodbath was
what is was.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:40PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dgoto: I aint gonna cry over the missed Jy, when I got over $5k per in my
Swissie. I do wish I'da looked toward the land of the rising sun, tho.: )

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:42PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I had a signal on the JY, but it was MUCH stronger for both Swissie and DM.
So I went with SF. But I'll be buyin the dips in JY for a long time now.

barbarian . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:42PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
well done on the swiss trade oleman....it was a 'gump' fx trade when you
took it my veiw....a trade even I understood !

dgoto . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:42PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman, all I know is a lot of THEM experts were spitting blood this
evening.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:45PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
barb: the Antipodean Oracle was here that nite, saying they were goin down,
when yhou asked him. Then he shows up today. "Long, rich, and happy"/: )

barbarian . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:46PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
as I remeber oleman, you kept your cards close to your chest !!!!!

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:47PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hum: Seems to be a little envy of the Great Chief Appalachicola in the
mother country. But it'll pass.: )

barbarian . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
yes yes say no more...nothing to be gained by it oleman.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 10:51PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
barb: I said a HUGE move was coming the next day, but i wouldnt tell the
direction, cause it was such a strong buy and there were some present who
didnt "need to know" a couple emailed me, and I was forthcoming in private.
But, surely, anyone who's been around charts more than a week would know
that the SF on 9/30 wasn't gonna collapse. Course it was a week before the
full moon, so some extra illumination was necessary for some.: )

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 11:07PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
psych: I dont send much out. Bout all I know is known around here. Just
simple stuff that you got to get yourself "psyched up" to do. Like buy
tomorrow below today's low, caus it'll be the fourth downer in a row.

oleman . . Wed, Oct 7, 11:16PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
In NFL, if you bet on every team that has failed to cover 3 in a row, you
win. If you bet on every team that has gone"under" 3 in a row to go over,
and vice versa, you win. If you buy the spoos below the low of the third
down day in a row, you win. It's hard on the psyche to bet on a team that's
so sorry it has failed to cover 3 times running. And its doubly hard to buy
spoos after 3 down days in a row. Yup, its a lot like football.: )

I got your message, but you be preachin' to the wrong dude.
If anything, I'm more hardcore than you. 100% in the speculative stocks.
The black thingy showed up after you posted, and it slowed down the posting window.

mozel's smokin' tonight, eh?

I meant the line below it.

Is this an early warning ( :- ) ) ) )

I think I saw that article on
http://www.sightings.com/index.htm
But it's not there now.

--------------
Anyone own a car???
The truth is starting to come out?

Automobiles and the Millennium Bug
http://year2000.dci.com/articles/1998/10/07auto.htm

Other manufacturers have their work cut out for them. Engineers testing the AMC Eagle for Y2K compliance found that the main processing unit, which controlled the car's ignition, power steering, fuel injection and drive train, malfunctioned during the testing process. The processing unit failed when its internal clock was rolled forward to Jan. 1, 2000, causing a data buffer to overflow.

On the other hand, we have probably lived to enjoy the best of times that the human race has ever seen. Probably better than our children or grandchildren will likely see for some time to come. ...... Sad to contemplate, really.

Try as I might, I cannot come up with one reason why an automobile needs to know the current date. ...... Unless, of course, it's tied to the termination of the auto loan or lease. At which point it would quietly signal a complete collapse of all systems.

I heard that Aldebaran is going to be eclipsed by the moon tonight. It should be close to the moon, just above, as viewed by RJ, and his scantily clad escort.
But the big news is that the brightest star of the Bull will pass behind the moon as viewed from the far east.
Alpha Tauri behind the moon.

Better buy Silver iffn' your'e of the superstitious bent.

I have been worried about paper gold tanking with everything else for some time, and in actualility thatt has happened - last fall and earlier this year. I recently bought BEARX as a hedge against this possibility. However, with that said I am not so sure now. It is beginning to look like we are beyond that point, and now are looking at the only place to go is Gold and paper Gold.

The margin calls occured in Gold several months ago and the money going into paper gold, at this point in time, would appear to be real money. The derivatives issue is another subject and may play a further cause in Gold's rise.

I thought of lightening up on my mining shares but, I am not sure, will probably stay long.

We will see.

HighRise

Mozel

Pardon?

"end of a very long time"?

Was there a problem posting the rest of your message? Or was this intentional? Are you talking of the end of time?

tick tock tick......


BTW agree totally with your take on Farenheit & Centigrade, Centrigrade is of much less practical utility.
WE have seen the same thing with metrication of other measurement systems. We are now *all* metric downunder, at the time of decimalisation of our currency ( 1967/8? ) we experienced profiteering and inflation. The duo-decimal system is marvellous, because of the divisors of 12. Now we have the accursed metric system of volume & area measurement, of lesser utility than the ancient measures.


aurator@_looking_for_a_tock

There is a huge amount of Human Progress looking for an opening in the fence. It may just get one.

Starting to rocket. Go Gold

I'm afraid I don't understand how your Bearx is going to hedge against your paper gold longs. Illiquidity and non performance have a nasty habit of rippling right through the entire system. Without regard for the particular style of paper you think you have. Paper is paper and will be regarded as such at all levels. Yes?

Modern cars are full of chips like everything else.

I've read where some of these chips are based of 286 chips and that they read of a RTC.

I am no expert but have seen all the experts arguing over this one.

I would hazard a guess that like many of the embedded chip arguements.
That little is known, revealed or understood about them.

But regardless of this embedded chips are everywhere and in everything.
Failure on them are widely touted even thought there is no need for them to be date sensitive.

One thing about Y2k is that the truth is slow to leak out.
Same as in the financial world.
Same as in the political world.

Seems we sheeple are feed on the same old, same old b/s.

What else will we find out before the rollover?

Can you explain or elaborate on this more I am not sure what this means. -2679.00 is a large number?

S&P 500 Futures Premium

3081.00
3091.00
91.00
432.00
-2679.00
10/7/98
22:42

Thanks for your 18:08 piece last night. It's always interesting to me what happened before they started putting forks in the road. Keep on a-posting.

EJ, Gollum, Arden, and so many more... Wasn't it Carnegie who said
something like, "I don't know the first thing about making steel, but I do
have the ability to surround myself with the best steel-makers in the world?" I never thought I would in any way feel as if I were in a situation similar to that of Carnegie, yet I opened the door, sat right down, and have kept my ears propped up ever since. I am honored.

Hey, listen, I know I was one of your old gurus. You worshipped me like a God....just like you once
worshipped Puetz. But, just remember, I did not make you buy Pegasus. You bought it yourself 'coz you're a
grown-up boy. You didn't even have to get your Daddy's permission, did you?

I just supplied the analysis. It was good analysis...good enough to persuade someone like yourself as to its
merits.

You creamed yourself, you pulled the trigger.

Don't feel bad about it. It could have gone the other way if the banks were not so merciless toward gold
companies in trouble. Then, you would have won BIG...and you would still be fawning upon my every word.
I still would be one of your idols.

Just as both you and your second personality ( Realistic ) and your third personality ( BUGal ) still memorialize




my every single word today.

Keep posting them. I enjoy reading the old posts. They are good, aren't they?

Thanks.

F*

of decisions to appear in the natural course of things.

@Metric is part of the diseducation campaign being waged against the common man by the governing elite.

Hey, listen, I know I was one of your old gurus. You worshipped me like a God....just like you once
worshipped Puetz. But, just remember, I did not make you buy Pegasus. You bought it yourself 'coz you're a
grown-up boy. You didn't even have to get your Daddy's permission, did you?

I just supplied the analysis. It was good analysis...good enough to persuade someone like yourself as to its
merits.

You creamed yourself, you pulled the trigger.

Don't feel bad about it. It could have gone the other way if the banks were not so merciless toward gold
companies in trouble. Then, you would have won BIG...and you would still be fawning upon my every word.
I still would be one of your idols.

Just as both you and your second personality ( Realistic ) and your third personality ( BUGal ) still memorialize




my every single word today.

Keep posting them. I enjoy reading the old posts. They are good, aren't they?

Thanks.

F*

I have dealt with a few Japanese in the Machine tool business, and have found the ones that I have spoken with, to be honorable gentlemen.
Now, all of the smaller machine tool builders are going out of business, along with their craftsmen.
It is a damned shame what governments can do to the free market.
Only ROR types could defend the destruction of the productive people of the world at the hand of government.

Hey, listen, I know I was one of your old gurus. You worshipped me like a God....just like you once
worshipped Puetz. But, just remember, I did not make you buy Pegasus. You bought it yourself 'coz you're a
grown-up boy. You didn't even have to get your Daddy's permission, did you?

I just supplied the analysis. It was good analysis...good enough to persuade someone like yourself as to its
merits.

You creamed yourself, you pulled the trigger.

Don't feel bad about it. It could have gone the other way if the banks were not so merciless toward gold
companies in trouble. Then, you would have won BIG...and you would still be fawning upon my every word.
I still would be one of your idols.

Just as both you and your second personality ( Realistic ) and your third personality ( BUGal ) still memorialize




my every single word today.

Keep posting them. I enjoy reading the old posts. They are good, aren't they?

Thanks.

F*

Earl@Heart_of_the_matter

"Try as I might, I cannot come up with one reason why an automobile needs to know the current date"

Zigackly! There are many computer functions and data exchanges that do not require, nor have ever required, the current date.

It was put rather well to me a few weeks ago, as 3 of us stood in the middle of a suburban road in Sydney: The difference is between service and goods. If you are dealing with goods, then the current date will generally be irrelevant, if you are dealing with services the current date is much more important, but not always necessary.

Let us keep our heads, while all around are losing theirs and blaming it on us.

Couldn't agree with you more on the metricoition of a perfectly good system of measurement. Even worse is the modern use of both systems in one product. Auto's for example. Metric in one area, English in another. Dreadful waste of resources.

Europe must awakening. Gold is declining. It's been up - $1.20 - all evening. Now only up $0.80. ...... Gotta keep the lid on at all costs.

Seems like unplotted territory coming up.

If the markets were to tank hard - all paper will burn.

To my mind if we only get a bear, then all should be well for gold mining companies.

But I think we are on the verge of a massive crash which will make 1929 look like a bump in the road.

We have only yet leaned out over the chasm to have a look.

If $100 trillion of derivatives were to explode the TEOTWAWKI
Let alone the 5 - 10 trillion in the equity markets.

These charts sort of point out what is in front of us.
http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/dji.gif
http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/djt.gif
http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/sp1871.gif

When you look at where we are and how far away the bottom could be.
You have to start thinking on all the insideous sideaffects.

Will your favorite mining co be able to raise that necessary cash to survive?
Will they be carrying to much debt to survive.

Many of the world's most sucsessfull companies are going down the gurgler.
Will your favorite mining co be able to avoid this?

Don't ask me I don't know the answers.
But I do think that times are changing radically.

What worked yesterday is no guarentee for tomorrow.

And if we get a major crash and the herd bolts the door.
Will they be discriminating and not sell their gold shares.

You know, the ones that for the last 10 years have been dogs.
The ones that just haven't performed.

I don't know but I have an inkling that we are at the very edge of this coming crash.

It was only yesterday that BC was warning of a financial meltdown.
And today AG was sawing that investors want out.
Not another safe investment.

I guess these coming days will not be the same as before.

And then there is Y2k which is another story.
Asia has stopped remediation.
If the rest of the world goes down in a crash.
What will happen in the western world as regards remediation.

Life is full of so many ponderables.

BEARX will continue to rise as the markets decline and my thought is that if the markets crash and drag Gold mining shares with them, I will still have BEARX making money.

If BERAX declines it will mean that the markets are being inflated up and this inflation will cause Gold shares to rise also.

We, as owners of Gold and Gold shares may be in an unusual time of a win win situation.

But, remember this is not a great environment to be in - things are really going to get bad, that is why Gold is doing what it is doing. We are headed for the water closet - the toilet or, as some say, the sh*ter.

It is nice being able to sit back and count our money made on Gold right now, but remember we may be out of a job tomorrow and on the street with the rest of the world.

I heard from a guy today that, like Gold, people are also buying arms and amunition as an investment commodity. Think about it!

HighRise

..aka Realistic aka Bugal aka Little Green Booger...

On to better, more interesting things.

Thanks

F*

1 ) My recent conversation with a Senior Vice-President of a major Japanese Bank.

2 ) My letter to Messrs. Clinton, Rubin, and Greenspan re: LTCM.

Stay Tuned.

There's more hot stuff to come.

Thanks.

F*

Likely, tons of things that we'd just as soon not know. Yes? ..... At least I will have one 20 year old vehicle that will definitely not suffer the hi tec malady, on that fateful day.

I agree.

It would now appear that we have confermation that we are on the edge and are going to fall big time.

It is as if AG and others have now signed off on the reality of future events.

As the world scrambles for cash they may be forced to sell all.

HighRise

Seems like they're haveing data problems.

Here's another clanger.
I also have one on planes navigational systems.

---------------------------
Kiss the World Wide Web goodbye in 2000, or kiss goodbye your compliant computer system.

It was fun while it lasted, wasn't it?

300 Million PCs; 6 Million Have Been Checked for Y2K
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2810

. . . Feilder, chief executive of the London-based consultancy Greenwich Mean Time, warns that only 2 per cent ( yes, 2 per cent ) of the world's 300 million personal computers have been checked so far for 2000 compliance. . . .

Feilder says that many companies will have to spend as much money on becoming year 2000 compliant with desktop computers as they are already spending on their mainframe systems.

However, in the US, for example, there are only four year 2000 remediation companies for desktop computers. Only 2 million of the US's 120 million desktops have been checked so far. . . .

He points to the fact that surveys worldwide show that about 64 per cent of mission critical data is kept in desktop computers, compared with 8 per cent in mainframes and the rest in small to mid-range systems. . . .

Feilder likens Y2K non-compliance in desktop computers to a computer virus. Just one "infected" machine could crash a network of many others even if the others have been made compliant.

"If you knew your PC network was infected with a virus you would check every single machine," says Feilder, who says the world faces a daunting task in checking every single desktop for Y2K compliance.

He says the problem is made urgent by the fact that a little over one in 10 desktops being sold today are still not Y2K compliant.

Feilder found from a random sample of 500 personal computers of different brand names that 93 per cent made before 1997 crashed when their internal clocks were rolled over to the year 2000.

More worrying, 47 per cent of those manufactured in the first half of 1997 failed their Y2K test, while 21 per cent of those made in the second half of 1997 also failed as did 11 per cent of desktops made in the first half of 1998.

Greenwich Mean Time also found non-compliance problems with the programs running desktop computers.

Of the the 4000 software packages selected worldwide, 2568 exhibited 73 different categories of non-compliant Y2K-related behaviour.

Of those 2568 programs, 724 were claimed to be Y2K compliant by their suppliers.

Feilder says the year 2000 problem on desktops has to be dealt with in five layers checking compliance in the hardware, the operating systems, software, data and, perhaps most importantly, recognising the ability of networked terminals to corrupt each other by swapping non-compliant data.

Feilder advocates that the only way to ensure Y2K compliance is maintained after a desktop terminal has been checked is to cut off Internet access a radical measure but necessary considering the Internet remains a conduit for non-compliant data.

As well, the PC's floppy disc drive has to be removed and the CD-ROM disabled to ensure corrupted data does not enter a terminal. . . .

Link: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4235583.htm

The metric system came from the French revolution. The history of it is a witness to the primacy of politics over reason, par excellance.
The metric system is especially bogus in mechanical arts.
I can understand why the French gommint would adopt a system based upon the inaccurate measurement of the distance of the pole to the equator.
So much tax resource for so many bureaucrats. Let 'em eat cake.

The only point I was trying to make is that a market in collapse will play no favorites. A market suffering total dislocation. Bear fund or no.

Alternate commodities are good idea. Caps being one of them. But I seem to have enough on my plate as it is. My vision is not as clear as others seem have. So I must stick to the essentials. Good and sufficient is the best I can hope for. Additional investment opportunities will have to await a clearing of the smoke.

A Bond on a gold company would be better. A convertible bond would be best of all. Interestingly, stock and bond securities are owned absolutely, so far as I have determined, as compared to land or a vehicle in which you only own the privilege to use subject to any rules and regulations made by the legal owner.

The gold stock is a gamble. But, a rational gamble, I think. Dividends in product would be more than acceptable to me.

Appears to be falling rapidly.

HighRise

For a beautiful looking chart:

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm

Fidelity PM funds up over 60% in 24 trading days.

PLEASE!!!!!! find a girlfriend, A BOYFRIEND, OR BETTER YET YOURSELF!!!
I really have had enough!!! go home!!! go away!!! go play!!! or better yet just shut up!!! and sit still!!! roflmao... you probably live beyond human contact, and are in real need of seeing someone, anyone!!!! :- )
get help!!! NOW!!!!

Here we go, the dollar and the euro.

Thursday October 8, 2:18 am Eastern Time

ANALYSIS-Dollar could follow footsteps of emerging currencies

By Yoshiko Mori

TOKYO, Oct 8 ( Reuters ) - While the United States economy has little in common with
Indonesia's, some analysts say the dollar could come under the same types of pressures
that hit the beleaguered rupiah as ``borrowed capital'' flows back home in a time of growing
uncertainty.

Some experts say the dollar's sharp fall on Wednesday shows the long-term vulnerability of the U.S. currency.

``There is a chance that the U.S. currency will follow in the footsteps of emerging market currencies if capital flows to U.S. markets keep dwindling,'' said Susumu Takahashi, chief economist at the Japan Research Institute.

But capital invested in the United States has begun reversing course, due in part to the growing credibility in markets of Europe's single currency, the euro, and also because of financial sector problems in industrial economies, economists said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981008/cs.html

HighRise

The gold bond is a superb idea. Repayment in gold and issued by the borrower directly to the lender and keep it the hell out of the wall street suction device. ....... In the end, I fear the bankruptcy laws more than anything else, as regards paper positions of all kinds. LTCM is but a recent example. ..... Trust nothing that isn't firmly in the hand or in safe keeping.

Yahoo Finance has up-to-date spot gold prices under the
currency exchange section - just scroll down to find gold
on the left and US$ ( or other ) on the right. They are just
slightly behind Kitco in time.

Interesting and informative. Like all your posts. I see a definite link link between the push for metric years ago and the more recent, blatant globaliste crappola.
BBML

sharefin
In the interests of balance, I should like to emphasise that your last post on Y2K was a press release by a software company which is selling Y2K checking software, and therefore should be read as a commercial, something like Macaffee ( sp? ) on computer viruses.

That guy was over here a week or so ago.

Thing about Y2K software, you can only sell it for a few months. My co's software? well it'll last years....

:- )

Then you need this. Imagine, as cars are stranded in the mother of all traffic jams, on their way to clean out the local grocery store, you can confidently pedal your way there and back! http://www.rhoadescar.com/

What is the problem?

HighRise

I was about to give a late update on the markets when your post to Sharefin caught my attention.

( soto voce ) You know Dave, it's not good to go through life like a free nerve ending. If what you read upsets you so, you really should avoid it at all costs. Otherwise it will just jangle the blood and stir up a torpid liver. Now you wouldn't want that would you?

In the meantime, try to recognize that Sharefin has done yeoman duty on this - dare I say it? - y2k thing. An effort many of us here recognize and appreciate very much.

Should your boorish incivility serve as cause for an informal vote of confidence, you probably would not like the result.

In my opinion, a formal apology is called for and expected.

Sorry - no can do.
I'm already married.

Beside what would I find?
Who would have me?
( :- ) ) )
------------------------
The underlying "financial cracks" that have been forming beneath
the foundations of world financial markets are becoming realized at
an incredible pace. In the last 75 days, the U.S. stock markets
have lost over $2 trillion in market captalization and the world
financial markets have lost tremendous capitialization as well.
Most markets seem to be poised for even greater losses. Moreover,
the attempt early last week by the Federal Reserve to increase
market confidence through additional lowering of interest rate cuts
had little impact. Although there are billions of dollars "on the
sidelines" waiting for the right buying opportunity, the
continuation of negative news from worldwide financial markets
intensifies daily.

Could there be one more market rally before the ultimate downturn?
Maybe...but it would take a positive action plan from Japan's
leadership regarding their banking crisis and further cuts in the
United States' interest rates to increase confidence worldwide and
stimulate continued growth. The possibility is a stretch, however,
due to the complexity of the Japanese banking crisis. Also the main
catalyst, to the U.S. markets, is corporate earnings and they
appear headed for a slump.

What is most noticeable about these times, especially to one who
monitors world news daily, is the timing of unpresidented major
events which are occuring in sequence. Several examples are: the
economic crisis in Southeast Asia; the financial and political
crisis in Russia; the financial strains and liquidity crisis that
is developing in South America; the loss of $81 billion in oil
revenues to nations who rely on oil as their main source of
revenue; the risky timing of the Euro introduction ( January 1,
1999 ) the political problems and potential impeachment of Bill
Clinton; the $3.5 billion bailout two weeks ago of a hedge fund
operated by some of the top financial minds in the country; the
$68 trillion in financial derivatives traded worldwide and the $10
trillion coming due in Southeast Asia by year end which many times
are handled by young and inexperienced traders; the Middle East
peace challenges; solar flares, meteor showers and sunspots that
could create havoc for our communication satellites in the coming
24 months; and, the Y2k event.

Just thinking of the magnitude of these events leaves a feeling of
awe! These events are huge and only a small group of people are
even aware that they are occuring!

So is a rally possible? Maybe...but if one does occur, it will
likely be short lived due to the looming events which will
transpire in the year ahead.

For this weeks news, please visit the webite at http://watch.org

If paper holds long enough for Envy to get out with his shorts, we will have a place that we can visit on a sunny day.
I am short sp500. This thing went from 46, where I bought it last winter, to 15, with a sojourn to the 90's. Now it's around 68. I'll hang for a while. ( Kaplan said buymore )
Everyone is so pessimistic, and for good reason.
You know how that goes though, don't you? My goldbuggery might end in an S+P1060 rally, with gold at 292.00.
I cannot see the end of this, unless the gommints throw in the towel, and declare themselves impotent. I refuse to go long on that theory.
I've got two more months on my big fat put. I'll stay it until I sense a whiff of non coverage.
Envy must be making nearly squillions.

Please keep the information coming this way. Thanks.

I, like you, hate these damn scalpers.
Profiting off others fear.

But it would not suprise me if his figures are close to correct.

I guess he's pushing his agenda.

But lordy knows, there's one hell of a problem out there.

I really wish I knew.

Dave

Yours is the scroll button.

Y2K is not unimportant. Just how important, imp portents, im port ants, it is, has yet to be known.


Burying one's head in the sand, & shooting the messenger, ought to be investigated, if they form one's defence.


make no mistake. Y2K is Attack.

Dave may have just taken out a big loan on a brand new '99 BMW.

farmers take a hit in the UK too
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_188000/188802.stm

the 8 most powerful people in the UK financial sector?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_188000/188431.stm

big European banks deep in it
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_188000/188018.stm

every darn news service says "do not panic sell!" ... hmm ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/your_money/newsid_186000/186888.stm

The Federal boys with bulging brief cases hit town under cover of darkness to claim yet another victum....

i.e. Fed bank examiners have swooped in on ( never trust a banker! ) Bankers Trust and are inviting several other banks "to big to fail"to join in a shotgun wedding...that makes two down...and who knows how many to go...guess which CB arrainged for a tidy little private sale of350tonnes at the market to help LTCM out their short position!!!!!!!!!

The Federal boys with bulging brief cases hit town under cover of darkness to claim yet another victum....

i.e. Fed bank examiners have swooped in on ( never trust a banker! ) Bankers Trust and are inviting several other banks "to big to fail"to join in a shotgun wedding...that makes two down...and who knows how many to go...guess which CB arrainged for a tidy little private sale of350tonnes at the market to help LTCM out their short position!!!!!!!!!

I think it is time sharefin goes home!!! and the rest of you geniuous send him!! he has done more than his share here and I am really embaressed he is still at it........god darnit tke care of your own stuff and leave us to our own delussions Sharfin!!!! now!!~!

Source?

We're still buried in it ( :- ) ) )

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/toilette.jpg

Grab a beer and head for the beach.

Relax and chill out.
cya

Again, what is your problem?
What is it about Sharefin that bothers you?
What has been your great contribution to this site?

Good Night All, Big Day Ahead?

HighRise

Dave - are you serious, most of the money you may make next year may be
because of y2k....it is definitely appropriate sharfin is sharing in
what he knows, that applies to "our stuff".....my opinion....steve

Does your mother know that you are on the computer at this hour? I hope you get a spanking. When you get back to your grade three class tomorrow you can drop your trousers on 'show and tell'.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9810/07/russia.protests.02/

"We will not allow Yeltsin to destroy us,"

"We want a president who solves
the concrete problems of the country and doesn't make empty promises."

Don't believe this was posted yet. NY Post article on LTCM position in gold.

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/6373.htm

http://www.y2ksupply.com/bankchart.htm - shows obs, cash on hand, circ

If you haven't got your gold yet, you should. Today it is under $300.

http://www.y2ksupply.com/bankchart.htm - shows obs, cash on hand, circ

If you haven't got your gold yet, you should. Today it is under $300.

...will blow another billion of US taxpayer's money today??

You might wonder why date calculations would matter to a car's engine management system. In his intelligent and detailed paper," Embedded Systems and the Year 2000 Problem," Mark A. Frautschi explains why so many systems whose function doesn't require date calculations are still at risk for the Millennium Bug. "It is very expensive to engineer a custom-integrated circuit . In the case of time-sensitive chips, [embedded system manufacturers] will generally purchase an off-the-shelf, general-purpose timing chip ( or the rights to its design ) ." Thus, the chips purchased by equipment manufacturers often have more capabilities than they are called upon to perform; and the Y2K problem doesn't distinguish between the functions that are used and those that aren't. All chips with the ability to perform date calculations are susceptible to the Y2K Bug.

------------------------------
Nick I read Mark Frautschi's article months ago. Do you think that it is considered a "confirmed event" as it were? If that is true then western civilization has ended as we know it. It is one scary document.

http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html

The thing is I have never seen anyone say anything against this link.....


Brian

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981007/bhx.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981007/co_newmont_1.html

Dave, a slow night?

AMC Eagle ( car ) FAILED roll over. This vehicle uses a chip core common to many other vehicles .. so expect to hear of other make/model problems. Apparently this chip controlled the engine, trany, steering, etc. Data buffer overflow. They did not say what the result of the failure would have been if one was driving the car when the failure occured. Go to Gary North's site to read all about it.

Can you spell L-I-A-B-I-L-I-T-Y. Yes you can!

I was unable to get Kitco all day. Bummer! Even Kitco backup site was jammed.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981008/et.html

tonight. Has come back $1.30 in the last few minutes. Must be a bit of a battle going on in London. I wonder if the Bank of England supremo will follow up yesterday's announcement with "I sold my wife's wedding ring today." The 'boy-who-cried-wolf' is running out of wolves!! Where are Oris and the General when we need them??
.........
Finnie--Ignore the children up past their bedtime, mate.

Just a suggestion which might speed things up a bit. Most of the traffic dragging your server down is from lurkers who never post. My suggestion would be to have two sites, one the active, postable site where those who post regularly can do so and also get fast downloads. The other site would be a mirror updated every five minutes or so. The mirror site would be without password access. The active site would be password protected to control access to active members.

Just a thought.

Just a suggestion which might speed things up a bit. Most of the traffic dragging your server down is from lurkers who never post. My suggestion would be to have two sites, one the active, postable site where those who post regularly can do so and also get fast downloads. The other site would be a mirror updated every five minutes or so. The mirror site would be without password access. The active site would be password protected to control access to active members.

Just a thought.

Just a suggestion which might speed things up a bit. Most of the traffic dragging your server down is from lurkers who never post. My suggestion would be to have two sites, one the active, postable site where those who post regularly can do so and also get fast downloads. The other site would be a mirror updated every five minutes or so. The mirror site would be without password access. The active site would be password protected to control access to active members.

Just a thought.

@ 05:00 in the morning? Its getting useless here. The posts time stamps indicate that regular posters can't even log in to post. HELP ! ! !

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981008/dx.html

To all you computer/internet experts out there.

If the GPT ( Gold Plunge Team ) wanted to stuff Kitco up during times of 'financial stress', like when gold is heading for the moon, what would they do???

It seems to me that Kitco turns into the 'snail lovers home web page' every time gold goes up!! Does the extra traffic ( lurkers ) cause the slowdown?? C'mon computer xperts--tell us how they do it!!

It is probably triple posts that slow Kitco down{:- ) ) ) )

You are right as usual, Nick-o! Just that the site refused to acknowledge my posts. Gave the "Server to busy to use right now" message, etc. I hate not being able to access Kitco. During the day it is vitually impossible. Even D.A. had to post at 23:00 last night just to get in .. he had a valuable comment about LTCM short to the tune of 1.0*10^7 million ounces with calls and puts there in described.

Enough complainin' on my part though. You guys and gals are the very best. I just miss the company and the great dialog here.

We hope you know that we apprediate the efforts of your staff to keep Kitco the best of its kind.

1 ) stop using NT and IIS
2 ) more bandwidth
3 ) mirroring

as a side note, perhaps a kitco emailing list and/or newsgroup and/or IRC channel...

yes?

This is an interesting problem. The question that must be answered first is if the Computerized EFI clock's scratch memory ( CMOS ) is backed up by an internal battery. If it is not then simply disconecting the car battery for a day ( to allow the discharge of caps ) would reset the clock to the original default system date. If the clock were backed up by an internal battery, the battery would have to be temporarily disconected or shorted out for a few moments to clear the clock. The problem with putting a battery on the circuit board is the extreme heat the system is subjected to. Here in Southern Arizona, the best lithium cell would only last a fraction of its 10 year life span. Worse yet, once the battery has begun to degradate, it will discharge oxidized lithium salts on the circuit board causing damage and eventual malfunction ( planned obsolescence? )
I have a 10 year old Alfa Romeo with a Bosh EFI system. I know that if the clock was backed by an eternal battery, it has been dead for years now. Once I did not close my car door completely and left on vacation for three weeks, when I came back the battery was completely dead. I ended up replacing the battery because it was old anyways so at least I know reseting a bosh black boxes clock does not affect it's functionality.
My curiosity is so peeked now I think I will go down to the junk yard and crack open a few black boxes and see how they are layed out.

US$/Yen down another 4% - 116.2 ( as of 7:50pm Sydney time )
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currency/curr.cgi?num=7?w_tkc=USD&usr_tkc=USD&d_list=2


hmmmmmmmmmmm................

Gooday from the chilly Midwest...globex Mex Peso up 120 points! Arriba! Arriba !!!! Gold paper WILL NOT burn 'cause we at KITCO own almost all that's out there and we ain't gonna sell 'til we made our squillions ( :- ) ) )

I'm interested in picking up some shares of South African mining companies. Does anyone know a good source to compare the
companies, or have any recommendations. I'm reading from some sources here on Kitco that they are undervalued versus North American shares, and any help would be appreciated.

and j'burg gold up 2.97% ( type in ^jgai at the bottom ) .

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

best source for Afrcan gold stocks: John Disney : this site ,Just ask.

http://www.mbendi.co.za/index.htm

For prices and charts, go to Yahoo
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
and type in DROOY or whatever symbol at the bottom.

For good analysis read any of John Disney's posts over the past year or so. Just set the date on Kitco and go for it. You can do a 'control F' ( find ) on windows to find 'John Disney' once you have loaded a day's postings. If you want to find out how to barbecue a weenie, do a 'control F' on Nick@C or go to 'The White House' home page.

Globex down, long rates up, short rates down, dollar down, PM's up.

Dollar continues it's slide, can treasuries be far behind?

Since this train appears to be quickly leaving the station......remember this article?

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/birch030498.html

You'll have to delete the "en" after gold as it appears in the Kitco post.

Great site for mining stock info: http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/

Chamber of Mines of South Africa:
http://www.bullion.org.za/

Vronksy's S.A. info page

http://www.golden-eagle.com/south_africa.html

remember to drop the "en" from golden

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Swing1.gif
Watch that decline. A verticle descent.
Very ominious.
The washout should occur when the oscillator is at the bottom.

Tick with 10d m/a
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Tick.jpg
The m/a should soon drop below the zero line.

SP500 futures
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/SPZ8.jpg
Soon to break to new lows?

---------
Andraschkov
Sounds like you have some work in front of you.
Let us know your results.

Personally I don't know a lot about the subject apart from what I read.
And 90% of that would have to be b/s - press spiel.

Guess it's all a learning curve for all of us.

This car/y2k subject has been an extensively debated on the web.
This report out today I feel has been an eyeopener for many of us.

Who nows what else they will tell us over the next 12 months.

Start withdrawing small amounts from your bank account ( say $50-$100
or more ) on a weekly basis and start building a cash reserve in
prep for Y2K. Sharefin's articles on the lack of cash reserves in the
banking system is scary and I definitely foresee a bank run sometime
in 1999. The only two problems I see are: ( 1 ) not earning any interest
on that money and ( 2 ) possibility that it may be stolen.

Regarding interest, let's just call it an insurance premium. Regarding
burglary, I would suggest getting a heavy duty gun safe for storing
your cash, gold, jewelry, and other valuables. Most burglars are not
professional safe crackers so this should provide good protection.
Check out Shotgun News and other gun publications for a variety of
manufacturers.

Comments Please.

she's comin' round da' bend..........It's da' GoldTrain!!! alllaboard!!!

Mornin' to all!!! and as always, GO GOLDBUGS!!!

studio.shakin'.shorts.by.da.shorthairs...yeeeehaaaaaa!

...again today??
http://www.bullion.org.za/bulza/newsotd/mnotd.htm

XAU T/A

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/10-07%20XAU%20-%20daily.gif

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/10-07%20XAU%202.gif

Some of us who are connected to the other worlds, are very aware that you and your henchmen have been playing around with the financial levers of the world.

As I ponder the massive financial changes I see taking place upon my little magic viewing board, I can only wonder what your next move will be.

Today, tomorrow and Monday appear to be shaping up as very dark days in the financial kingdom. I think you are correct. The DOW will be down more than 1 point today. But where do you get your prophesis is the key to this riddle!!

Keep up the good work!!

Would I be correct in assuming you and your henchmen have been collecting illuminous gold ingots to

Why do you use two different handles???

The way I figure dat one.........is........If the US won't give their leeeetle stooge "free" fiat.....I don't think they'll let 'em give away PLEDGED gold....betcha' the IMF's gold has "BIG liens" attached.

I haven't used my other handle ( cool lurk ) in a long time. Cool lurk is my "mother" figure I use for silly dialogue. I better test it now.....see if she's still there. salud!

BOE just cut interest rate 1/4 per5cent!!! GO GOLD!!!

shut up! you are a stoooooooopid slut. ( slap )

Regarding the masacre paper is going to take today at the hands of gold bring to mind a little story:

The Lone Ranger and his faithful Indian companion Tonto, found themselves
surrounded by hostile Apache braves on the warpath.

"I don't see any way out, Tonto," said The Lone Ranger. "It looks like we're going to be killed by those Indians."

Tonto turned to his friend. "What you mean WE, kemo sabe?"

I am having problemo with PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service, cant get those groovy commodity/currency charts happening, can anyone help?
pleeeeese, ta

Dave, tried self aversion therapy, or are you a devotee already?

Keep fighting the good battle cause our army is strengthening.
The battle ground is where good and evil merge, our weapon
is love, our intentions neccesary and immediate. Take mother
nature in your hand.

NOW advertising spot up $2.60 today. This is one of the last days for a sale like this. Buy some while there is still some left !!!!

Now that the Kitco boys and girls philosophy is being vindicated by recent events, the feeling of euphoria which I thought I would have is more of a feeling of dread and concern. However, being prepared with food, real money ( gold ) and being out of debt does ten to reduce the dear and concern. It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. I am really happy though to see that WJC will get the blame for all of this although his role was minimal. He was willing to take credit for the balanced budget and the roaring stock market. Let him eat cake intervenously.

My henchmen told me not to let you in on this, but the dollar going down is bullish for the equities markets.

Right now there is much uncertainty, which is always bearish, not to mention panic. Markets are unstable because af various long term positions unwinding. From one day to the next one might see both bonds and gold going up together or not. Stocks and gold, or not. And many peculiar things not often seen.

This shall pass.

A lower dollar is better for the manufacturing sector, the economy will pick up.

A lower dollar kills the yen carry trade, Asia will pick up.

A lower dollar means higher commodity prices and that kills the gold carry trade, gold will more or less stay up.

When shall all this come to pass?

When the panic boards quit looking red every night.

http://www.russiatoday.com:80/rtoday/business/news/98100608.html

Sorry about my pathetic spelling and grammer this morning. I need a dictionary. My legal documents are better. I'll be luking with interest today. I think its all coming unraveled.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

07:06 LONDON FTSE 100 EXTENDS SLIDE AFTER UK RATE CUT, DOWN 3.1% AT 4,679.2.
07:02 BANK OF ENGLAND CUTS BENCHMARK INTERSET RATE ONE-QUARTER POINT TO 7.25%.
04:06 LONDON'S FTSE 100 INDEX REVERSES OPENING GAIN, DOWN 10.3 PTS AT 4,818.6.
04:05 PARIS CAC 40 DOWN 5.90 POINTS AT 3,091.79 IN EARLY TRADING.
04:03 LONDON'S FTSE 100 INDEX OPENS UP 2.4 POINTS AT 4,831.3.

Today's CNN poll shows that 51% of voters against 49% percent think that we are going to have a recession in short order.

the POG say in Swiss Francs...The Dollar is down 2% vs the Swiss Franc...actually Gold is steady or down for much of the world... only up in usd terms... If Gold is going to respond...really respond...then it needs to go up faster than the dollar is depreciating worldwide.

In any event...I'll take the usd price ... as long as it is reflected in the mining shares ...it just should be going up MORE, eh...

Expansion of virtual money during the boom and growth of the bubble, led to over use of leverage and derivatives. This leverage provided large "hedged" returns for whomsoever had the cash to be able to buy in.

Many banks bought in.

The collapse of LTCM and others has hurt these banks.

Fear and mistrust of banks has prompted increased derivatives use in an attempt to hedge.

And so it goes..

Here you go!

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

mom, are you having a leeetle drinkiepoo? ( mom swills vodka like Dick Butkis drinks gatorade )

TOrt.....thanks for the jokes!.....as always, salud!

I can agree with anyone who says the markets are in a panic right now.
REMEMBER- after the crash in 29, the markets regained almost the entire loss over the next 6 months.

Gollum is right, this will pass so dont get married to any positions!!

The DOW could lose 50% before this is over, and the weaker dollar is definately a plus for the rest of the world. Don't marry any positions
and avoid playing with margin unless you are extremely good!!

C R A S H I N G ....The POG SHOULD BE EXPLOADING ...oops .fat fingers..

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, warned that the outlook for the US economy had "weakened measurably" on recent global financial turmoil, the likes of which he said he had never seen. Mr Greenspan hinted to the National Association of Business Economics of another cut in interest rates, as the US dollar plummetted in forex markets, and said it was the time to be "especially alert" over monetary policy.
====================
One really has to question whether Uncle Alan will lower rates at a time when the Dollar is facing possible collapse.

Klinton sends in an airstrike against the Serbs
about the same time that an impeachment vote is taken.

And Gold will goes down cuz common sense says it should go up!

is at .008787 ( 113.80 ) .

The Japanese called for 110 yesterday.

Almost there!

...Bob in DC

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/700.1.html

http://markets.tradingtech.com/Currencies/JY/JYDaily/JYD/JYD_0.html http://markets.tradingtech.com/Currencies/SF/SFDaily/SFD/SFD_0.html

Username WAVE5 ( all capitals )

Password: TTI

In '29 many people who couldn't afford to be in the market at the height of the bubble got sucked in when the market fell down to their size. And the market did retrace quite a bit over the next few months.

Then the banks failed.

GOLD is the only game left in town. HEDGE FUNDS are going DOWN!!!

and almost break even........! Ya'll keep up da' heat on dem shorts!!

Sit tight. Let the market do what it's going to do. It looks like a wild ride is in the offing here. IF you are a knife catcher, please be aware, the knives being used today are especially sharp and made out of tungsten carbide. Yes indeedy, they will cut fast, easy and almost anything that gets in their way. Gold should be skyrocketing here, but then again, the Rolling Stones tune come to mind.... 'Under My Thumb'.

Flight money runs to US, to stocks, to bonds, to Japan, to gold, back to US, out of bonds, into hedge funds, out of hedge funds, away from US, out of gold, back to gold, puff! puff!

All you have to do is wait where you're at.

cANADIAN buck is going down with the USD. The idiots left the vaults empty.....

Did I mention to expect some volatility?

I want volatility on the POG, up! We need a $10. day up to flush out some of the 8000 tonnes of shorts. It's nearing the time of recconing....

Big funds have big positions. Often hedged, sometimes not. Volatility creates margin calls. One day for the shorts, another day for the longs.

Margin calls beget unwinding.

Unwinding begets volatiltiy.

Sometimes up, sometimes down, depending upon who it is today.

Fundamentals don't matter. Charts don't work right.

The men get seperated from the boys.

Your palm touched mine, thanks. I believe panda and gollum offer the
truth when they say, expect anything and everything to happen
in a living moment. We are indeed lucky to have this golden
perspective on life.

US$ now 116.8 yen... Look out, gold....

The U.S. congress should vote that 18 billion appropriation to the IMF so that they can use it to support the U.S. dollar.

I believe the stock market is closed next Monday for Columbus day. And, if I am not mistaken, Canadian Thanksgiving. ( ? )

What fun and games will the Japanese, U.S. Feds ( HA! ) , and other big guys be playing this weekend?

Lots of profit taking on Friday... Right after the three martini lunch...

What say ye old Clinton-clone, sales-clerk, company propagandist?

"Need more data......."

OK

They still keep bashing it down! How much longer

in currencies..."under my thumb" indeedy...

08:17 THAI STOCKS SURGE 21.99, OR 8.35%, TO 285.22.
08:17 TAIWAN WEIGHTED SURGES 295.34, OR 4.42%, TO 6970.23.
08:17 SOUTH KOREAN SEOUL COMPOSITE DROPS 8.27, OR 2.64%, TO 305.22.
08:17 HONG KONG HANG SENG JUMPS 194.79, OR 2.525, TO 7939.51.
08:17 CHINESE SHARES CLIMB 14.925, OR 1.23%, TO 1228.710.
08:17 JAPANESE STOCKS SINK 799.55, OR 5.78%, TO 13026.06.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19981007/news/current/greenspan_text.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03
farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

Greenspan said the market correction was a "seemingly incomplete adjustment." He said continued optimism about corporate earnings in the next two years was "non-believable."

aurator, I realize the Chinese gov't site is insidechina.com is gov't propoganda. Just goes to show that the belief that the Internet will democratize information is unjustified. As with print and broadcast media, an organization with lots of money can overwhelm with quality and quantity the less well capitalized and drown out their message on the Internet.

snowbird, I'm feeling very smug about my big July purchase of BEARX. Of course, BEARX is a derivative scheme and as we all know if the underlying instruments behave unexpectedly... For now I'm happy with my 30% gain.

ChasAbar, you're welcome.

Dave, sharefin is a highly respected regular contributor to this discussion. Please feel free to argue with his or anyone's position. But you undermine yourself when you attempt to stifle them. Anyway, you're going to get the opposite result. Maybe that's what you were looking for.

Gollum, didn't you say something yesterday about VOLATILITY? Think this bucking bronc is going to throw a few lightweights today?

-EJ

Farfel, can you tell us when will the market collapse as it certainly didnt do so last Spring as you announced it will.

Thanks.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 17:50
farfel ( WHY A STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE WILL OCCUR THIS SPRING, NOT IN FALL... ) ID#339265:
Once the American stock market collapses ( along with the Dollar ) , there will be significant instablility in the world financial markets. The net effect: essential commodities will revalue themselves upward ( in U.S. dollar terms ) in an astounding slingshot effect

Nobody's seen any REAL volatility for over six decades. Just a touch wiped out LTCM. Now comes the BIG stuff.

Up and down, like bending a piece of wire repeatedly, first it get warm, then hot, and finally, it breaks...... Unless you have direct line to the markets or your broker is especially well equiped telco wise... Yes, Puetz's comment in Barron's this week about 1 billion ++ share days is one that I have to agree with. The volume to date has been one born more of complacency than fear. When the FEAR hits, Oh MY! What will the NYSE computers do? NASDAQ in a blood bath. What will they do when the market makers walk away en mass? They have done it before and will do it again, this is why I really hate trading on the NASDUCK, I mean NASDAQ...

Any one heare that US is stepping in to support dollar?
Or is this a rumor being spread by those traders on the
wrong side of this market - For those on the wrong side
this fall could be disastrous
- cjk -

This is as serious as I've seen it in awhile. The preparations are for
REAL. Buzz, buzz. Busy bees.

Not that I agree with any U.S./UN intervention over there but
Milo-sum-bitch is toast if he doesn't back off this time! While
threats of bombings and other actions have been going on for some
time, the "Wag the Dick" factor is a lot higher now than before.
Klintoris needs a diversion from the looming Govt. shutdown, impeachment, etc. What better way than to bomb a "terrorist"?

Wouldn't want to be on the flight crew of any plane flying over those SAM sites.

Jan Plat 357.0
Dec Gold 304.4
Dec Silv 518.5

We're SLASHING prices! The HOTTEST stocks! Dell, AOL, Yahoo! Blue Chips! Internets! We're GIVIN' 'EM AWAY! Everything MUST GO! So come on down to the World Market Panic Sale already in progress!

for Columbus Day. Banks also closed that day.

Somebody raised the question the other day, "How can the market crash in October if everyone KNOWS it's going to crash?".

I would like to address that question.

In a bull market that everyone knows is a bull, money gets made by leveraging on the long side and the inevitable bust is down.

In a bear market that everyone knows is a bear, monet gets made by leveraging on the short side and the retrace is up.

These last few years have been dominated ny the computer and sophisticsted financial marketing techniques. Money has been made by leveraging in hedged positions and arbitrage situations.

The inevitable unwinding will be up, down, and sideways.

Not a bull market, not a bear market.

A rattlesnake market.

Listen! I can hear someone else getting snakebit now!

SOMEONE has been supporting the US$ bigtime this morning after an earlier plunge. Hurricane winds in the currency markets.

Richebacher says in Sep Richebacher Letter ( 1-888-737-9358 ) says that the excesses of easy credit has built up over the years, where people fled from cash and poured into high-yielding riskier investments which has culminated to a general state of illiquidity. We are now seeing the reverse happen as people are trying to sell riskier assets for a move to the safety of cash or 1st class govt bonds. He says, "The next big victim are U.S. and European stocks."

He says that there are too many ressemblances with what happened in the 1920's, with one exception - This time, the excesses are far worse.

"A major shift towards liquidity protection is really not a market phenomenon. It's. . . a fear-induced psychological response," Mr Greenspan told the National Association for Business Economics. "And markets cannot effectively function in an efficient manner in that environment."
==============================
If markets and money hadn't been manipulated and perverted to this extreme over the past 100 years then there wouldn't be a need to panic.

Anyone want to have a bonfire where we will torch copies of the book, "A Random Walk Down Wall St", to Greenspan who will burn in effigy?

Are there a lot of banks that speculate in the foreign exchange markets? If there are some must be realing as a result of yesterdays and todays dramatic and unexpected fall any one have any insight on this subject.
It seems to me that drops of this magnitude will create a lot of margin calls as traders on the wrong side are wiped out . - Howeve Abbey is still bullish - perhaps when she turns bearish will be the time to buy - cjk -

He seems to have prepared his 'defense' already: "Congress, in its vindictive, right-wing extremist attempt to destroy me, hasn't been attending to the people's work. I've worked as hard as I could to do the people's work" Ta dah, Ta dah, Ta dah Bet he can do 90 minutes on the verb "work"

( 2 ) All--an alert of sortsIt occurred to me-finally-that it would be prudent to track the tripolor currencies POG in Euro. Guess what. When the $POG for yen ( i.e. when the Japanese could buy an ounce of gold for ( e.g. 40,000  whether the : $ rate was 117 or 144, the EURO price of gold in  was rock steady.
POG :Euro is 245 +/-. Just something to keep in mind. As Gollum has pointed out, sometimes the wisest thing to do is nothing. As the old street saying has it, it is also the hardest thing to do.

October 8, 1998: Gold Fields to recap sister mine in Ghana
Gold Fields said yesterday that it would recapitalise Gold Fields Ghana with a cash injection of $60 million.
http://www.woza.co.za/mining/gfieldso9.htm

Some folks still seem to believe in gold's future!

http://www.patriarch.com/remnant19.html
Both Gary North ( Remnant Review ) and Franklin Sanders ( The Moneychanger ) are now recommending cash as more important than gold or silver in the early stages of the likely Y2K crash scenario. The conventional wisdom had been that in a crunch the Federal Reserve Bank would simply inflate the money supply ( rapidly! ) in order to keep the whole system liquid ( and indeed it has recently given just such an assurance ) ; this, in turn, would lead to a hyper-inflationary debacle. Thus the usefulness of gold and silver, the age-old hedges against inflation.

However, if the Fed and banks are crippled by computer failures, they may not be able to manufacture the electronic money which constitutes at least 90% ( ! ) of our money supply ( less than 10% of our money is currency and coin ) . But, you say, they could just print more money. Sanders has discovered ( and North confirms ) that the Bureau of Printing and Engraving cannot print currency nearly fast enough to replace the electronic money that would be lost ( assuming they have the electric power, delivery system, etc. to even do the job ) . The result: an extreme shortage of money in a deflationary meltdown which will mean, as North put it, that cash will be king.

North's recommendation is that each family slowly and systematically turn assets into cash, preferably smaller bills, ones, fives, and tens, with twenties as the largest, and stash it in a safe place. He even proposes saving bags of the currently-used copper-clad coins ( especially dimes and quarters ) . The theory is that in the initial turmoil the value of cash will increase many times over ( Sanders guesses as much a ten-fold increase in value ) . When no one can write a check and credit cards are useless, the man with the hard cash will be in the economic driver's seat.

Also, when the bank runs begin sometime late in 1999 ( 25% of people surveyed say they plan to remove their money from the bank if they have any fears about their Y2K compliance ) there will be a severe cash shortage. There is only enough available cash in American banks for every family to have about $350 if they all showed up at once demanding their money ( a large percentage of currency is held overseas where the dollar is valued as a financial hedge; and much is already out of circulation, being held in mattresses and such ) . So accumulating cash could prove useful even before the year 2000 makes an appearance.

What of gold and silver then? The problem is that in the initial Y2K meltdown there will be no systematic market for the precious metals, and the common man will be unfamiliar with gold and silver as a medium of exchange. He will want the old familiar coin and currency. Later, when things have settled down and the rebuilding stage begins, gold and silver will once again prove their mettle and will indeed be assets of greatly-appreciated value.

So it is probably wise to save both cash and gold/silver. But the one who has relatively little may well do better with cash.

From
http://www.patriarch.com/remnant.html

09:15 REPEAT: GOLDMAN'S COHEN CUTS OPERATING EARNINGS VIEW FOR S&P 500 IN 1998, 1999.

Looks like the economy is gonna get better after all.

Poductive capital must compete with speculative capital, and in this the specs always win. Gresham's Law applies here!

The problem in this case is not primarily the government, although it is certainly incompetent at this time, but those 'private interests' which are allowed to manipulate with 'freedom' and malice. They usually lose in the end, but when we allow them this 'freedom' they take us with them!

Bob in DC


ps: Novice, what is your source? Globex has the Yen at 114. TIA

The 3 Musketeers of South Africa: DROOY, HGMCY & RANGY
( vronsky ) Oct 08, 08:13

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?redir_type=button&redir_group=changemode&redir_key=mode&symbols=drooy

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?redir_type=button&redir_group=changemode&redir_key=mode&symbols=hgmcy

http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?redir_type=button&redir_group=changemode&redir_key=mode&symbols=rangy

These charts are of close YESTERDAY! They do NOT take into account today's surge in prices. In a real return
of the gold bull, there is good likihood of them
reaching their two year highs. Just pencil out what
would be your gains.

Positive Factors:

- all 3 seemed to have based - see volume increase
during long period of consolidation
- the 3 SA goldstocks are at all-time low levels
- XAU is indeed in a gold bull posture
- paper stocks going to hell in a hand-basket worldwide
- the US dollar is plunging
- Y2K looming nearer every day
- Euro emerges next year
- growing military tension in Yugoslavia
- Russia is falling apart at the seams - mass
demonstrations in the streets of Moscow
- Japanese Banking System teetering on total collapse
- some high profile Wall Street firms starting to tout
gold stocks
- possible impeachment of the US president
- Japan may dump its T-Bond hoard, causing rates to
soar - and destroying the illusion that Treasuries are a
safe-haven

...what are you waiting for?

Lord AUR smiled upon the Japanese decision to cast in the valiant role of Robin Hood of the South-East Asian Forest.

I know we are in it upstairs or downstairs, so maybe we out to try going out side!!! Hope you can find something, somewhere, that clears your mind from the spectors that haunt us all these days, and find some peace, because I don't think it is going to make much difference to us or anyone else when the the time rolls around, except to ourselves and our loved ones, and we might regret, if we don't find somehow, or someway find the means to enjoy ourselves in what future we have, that is still like our past, we should seize it I guess, as it is our last chance, and nothing we do is going to change things or stop the clock ticking. So happiness and peace of mind Sharefin, you have earned it, many times over in my book!!! ( :- )

according to Wayne Angell. 3/4 of the way into the article.

http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/9810/07/angell/

Is there anyway that prices and values ( including currencies ) can be posted in terms of the POG? Like I could say the price of a....flight roundtrip to Hawaii was so many gold oz or .oz. Or the price of the yen, dollar and/or DM is.....oz? I always wind up converting everything from the dollar around and back again, which seems like the problem to me.

is clear. They're required for the OOWDS ( Out Of Warranty Detection System ) that causes your motor to go out of tune and your transmission to clunk and your sheet metal to start rusting a few weeks after your car is 3 years old!

- Steve

LTCM'S GOLD PLAY: THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT
By JOHN DIZARDWHEN the Long-Term Capital Management bailout became public last month, there were stories circulating in the market about a gigantic short position it had set up in gold.
In other words, LTCM had borrowed a lot of gold in the hope of buying it back later, ideally at a lower price.
Gold people believed that as this short position, which they believed amounted to hundreds of metric tons of gold, was covered by purchases, it would add fuel to the runup in the gold price.
I decided to check this story with LTCMs p.r. firm and one of its people dutifully reported back that Long-Term had no gold position, long or short, and that the rumor had been started in an attempt to hike the gold price. So I dropped it.
Now, based on extensive reporting among gold market participants, I have come to the conclusion that Long-Term did not tell the truth.
I wouldn't have minded if they had said no comment, but outright lying is something else again. So my advice is not to take these people's word in the future.
A Long-Term spokesman reiterated his previous statements on the fund's gold position - or rather lack thereof.
According to my sources, by August Long-Term had borrowed about three hundred tons of gold. That's a lot, about $3 billion. After borrowing the gold they sold it in the market and used the proceeds to finance other positions, such as one in the Australian dollar.
Why do this?
If they wanted to borrow, why not go to one of those overaccommodating creditors and plain borrow dollars to invest in securitized Antarctic commercial mortgage forwards or whatever other weird stuff they believed in that week?
Because the rates on borrowing gold have been incredibly low - around 0.63 percent ( annualized ) if you borrowed it yesterday for a month or 1.61 percent ( annualized ) if you borrowed for six months.
Usually, one-month loans are taken out by speculators, and six-month or longer loans are taken out by gold mines who are going short gold in this manner so as to balance out a long position that they have from their mine production.
The problem, of course, is what happens when the gold price goes up? Gold has been in a bear market for 18 years, but theoretically, some day, maybe now, the price in dollars will start to turn up in a bull market.
Mines don't have much of a problem, because they can cover their short selling out of what they produce. But a hedge fund has to buy back gold, and do so from a market that could turn jumpy very fast.
Now apparently LTCM bought out-of-the-money calls to hedge their short position, which means that if the gold price went up a lot, then they had the right to limit their losses. But it didn't eliminate all their risk.
I understand that J. Aron, the gold trading arm of Goldman, Sachs, has been able to cover all or most of the LTCM short in private transactions, with the intention of limiting the effect on the already stronger gold market.
So the Long-Term gold episode may be drawing to a close.
What market participants have begun to learn, though, is that the real danger to the system doesn't come from the relative value hedge funds themselves, which are in truth a very very small part of the financial system, but the banks and brokers who have been playing hedge fund on a much bigger scale.
That's why the prices of companies such as Bankers Trust, J.P. Morgan, Merrill and Lehman have been marked down so far.
How many of them have been doing what is known as the gold carry trade?

It seems that Kitco slows down on the loading of Gifs ( pictures ) .

When Kitco gets busy like now it might also be a good idea to disable the "show pictures" function on your browser.

To disable "show pictures" on Internet explorer

VIEW ( on toolbar )
INTERNET OPTIONS ( click )
ADVANCED ( subfolder )
SHOW PICTURES ( multimedia section, click so checkmark disappears )

Afterwards, you can repeat the steps to get the "show pictures" function back.

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?FS=%3Ch3%3ECredit+for+All

Did you see what the DJIA did at the opening....The FedRes and Treas are running this market....Crap - Shoot.... ( but I do like the odds ) grin.

I'll find more peace of mind when I sell my house.
Cause then I'll be off on a holiday before heading to the hills.
And that'll mean no more www.net

So I'd better go hard now
Knowing there'll be plenty of time to relax then.

Namaste

ps
I love being a news sleuth.
Gloomy Gus or not.

--------------------

Contrarian - Nick Chase
http://nick.assumption.edu/CV/view0998.htm

-------------------
Some believe that the world converting to the metric system
would greatly simplify our measures. But look what would
really happen to our old cliches...

* A miss is as good as 1.6 kilometers.
* Put your best 0.3 of a meter forward.
* Spare the 5.03 meters and spoil the child.
* Twenty-eight grams of prevention is worth 453 grams of cure.
* Give a man 2.5 centimeters and he'll take 1.6 kilometers.
* Peter Piper picked 8.8 liters of pickled peppers.

Tripp Testifies of Foster Death Cover-up; Murder of Jerry Parks
Christopher Ruddy
October 8, 1998

"Washington--Linda Tripp told Starr's grand jury this summer that she had significant reasons to question official claims about former White House Vincent Foster's July, 1993 "suicide."
Tripp, one of the White House Counsel's Office secretaries, and among the last people known to have seen Foster alive, told the grand jury she knows that top White House officials committed perjury in their accounts of Foster's death.
Tripp indicated to the grand jury Foster's death was only one reason she feared for her life as she gained knowledge of Monica Lewinsky's affair with President Clinton.
Tripp also detailed, cryptically, to the grand jury her heightened concern after the murder of Jerry Luther Parks, the former head of security at the Clinton-Gore 1992 Little Rock headquarters. Parks was murdered just two months after Foster's death, in September of 1996 while driving through a Little Rock intersection. His car was intercepted and stopped and a lone assassin fired seven shots at Parks.At least three bullets were believed to be fatal.
Parks was found reaching for his gun. His wife and son have both stated that Parks feared for his life in the aftermath of Foster's death. They claimed Parks said Foster had been murdered. Other sources have confirmed that Foster and Parks knew each other on a personal and business level. Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr investigated Foster's death and ruled it a suicide. Starr rebuffed attempts by the Parks family to investigate Parks' death and a possible connection with Foster's. The Little Rock Police have never solved the case.
The following is the verbatim grand jury testimony of Linda Tripp from her July 28 appearance before the grand jury:
Juror: To save your job, you went public and that in turn would probably cause you not to continue in the career that you had?
Tripp: It was far more than that. . . It was for me really far more than that. It was a question of I am afraid of this administration. I have what I consider to be well-founded fears of what they are capable of. I believe that I have had a far more informed perspective than most people in observing what they are capable of and I made a decision based on what I felt I knew to bethe possibilities that could befall me.
Juror: Could you give some examples of what's happened in the past to make you feel as if your life might be threatened?
Tripp: There was always a sense in this White House from the beginning that you were either with them or you were against them. The notion that you could just be a civil servant supporting the institution just was not an option. I had reasons to believe the Vince Foster tragedy was not depicted accurately under oath by members of the administration. I had reason to believe that -- and these are,remember, instances of national significance that included testimony by[???] -- to my knowledge also others [???], Clinton also in Travelgate. It became very important for them for their version of events to be the accepted version of events. I knew based on personal knowledge, personal observations[,] that that they were lying under oath. So it became very fearful to me that I had information even back then that was dangerous.
Juror: But do you have any examples of violence being done by theadministration to people who were a threat [???] to them that allowed you to come to the conclusion that that [sic] would happen to you as well?
Tripp: I can go -- if you want a specific, a personal specific, thebehavior in the West Wing with senior staff to the President during the time the Jerry Parks came over the fax frightened me.
Juror: Excuse me, Jerry Parks?
Tripp: He was one of the -- if not the head of his [Clinton's] campaign security detail in Arkansas, then somewhere in the hierarchy of the security arrangements in Arkansas during the '92 campaign. And based on the flurry of activity and the flurry of phone calls and the secrecy, I felt this was somewhat alarming.
Juror: I don't understand.
Tripp: I don't know what else to say.
Juror: Meaning that you were alarmed at his death or at what people [in the White House] said? Or did you have knowledge that he had been killed or--
Tripp: He had been killed. I didn't even at this pointremember how but it was the reaction at the White House that caused meconcern, as did Vince Foster's suicide. None [sic] of the behavior following Vince Foster's suicide computed to just people mourning Mr. Foster. It was far more ominous than that and it was extremely questionable behavior on the parts of those who were immediately involved in the aftermath of his death. So -- I mean I don't know how much more I can be specific except to say I am telling you under oath today that I felt endangered and I was angry and I resented it and I still do.
Juror: [Questions about her current job.]
Tripp: I am still being paid at the GS-15 level. I was demoted from my position and assigned administrative tasks which are now under discussion with the Pentagon. Quite beyond that, Mike Isikoff made a very good point early on [to Tripp] which was you will protect yourself and your job far better if your name does surface because once you're out there as a known source of information they will be less inclined to have something happen to you. . . .
Juror: I'm sorry. We were talking the incident that happened and how the people were acting at the White House and you said they were acting strange. Can you give us some examples of what you saw to draw that conclusion? What are some of the examples? You said they were not acting as if someone had just passed or whatever, something was strange. What were the strange things?
Tripp: It replicated [referring to the Parks murder, apparently] in my mind some of the behavior following the death [sic] of Vince Foster. A fax came across the fax machine in the counsel's office from someone within the White House, and I think it was from Skip Rutherford, who was working in the Chief of Staff's office at the time [September 1994]. At the same time the fax was coming, phone calls were coming up to Bernie Nussbaum which precipitated back and forth meetings behind closed doors, all with -- you know, we have to have copies of this fax and it was -- an article, it came over the wire, I think, I can't remember now, but I think we actually have that somewhere, of this death, this murder or whatever it was [referring tothe Parks death]. And it created a stir, shall we say, in the counsel'soffice which brought up some senior staff from the Chief of Staff's office up to the counsel's office where they, from all appearances, went into a meeting to discuss this. It was something that they chose not to speak about. One of our staff assistant's asked what is going on and it was never addressed. Which was primarily the same way that the Vince Foster death -- in the aftermath of the Vince Foster death -- in the aftermath of the Vince Foster death things proceeded as well. So, for people not in law enforcement, for people just government workers it was -- it was behavior that was considered questionable,cause for concern.
Juror: Just because they were having meetings behind closed doors?
Tripp: Because of the flurry of activity, because it was hush-hush, and that a fax could cause that level of activity. The White House is a very busy place, it's generally short-staffed, but there is pretty much a constant flow. It starts in the morning, it never really ends, you go home, you sleep, you come back. There are times as I am sure you can imagine during the Vince Foster thing that the pace changed somewhat and this was another such time. Maybe you had to be there. I know. I left and I will say under oath with the same sense that this was something they wanted to get out in front of. There was talk that this would be another body to add to the list of 40 bodies or something that were associated with the Clinton administration. At that time, I didn't know what that meant. I have since come to see such alist."

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/syama2.htm

Besides being grossly undervalued, here's another reason for the speculator move yesterday by RANGY, on big volume.

Syama results are out, with a 33% increase in production. RANDGOLD management reports that they expect an ADDITIONAL 50% increase when the company starts the 2nd stage of its expansion of the mine, ( SYAMA II ) . "This mine has been in the development stage for the last 2 years,"said David Ashworth, Randgold's finance director in Johannesgburg. " The expansion programs are beginning to bear fruit, and the mine will eventually produce 270,000 oz of gold per year.

ALSO, they are drilling Phase 4 of MORILA this month, now the most lucrative chunk of the entire RANDGOLD portfolio. They have drilled up over 2 Million ounces in 7 months! Stay tunedthe partys just starting. : )

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/morila.htm

What's up?

The spot price is down $0.80, so why are Coin prices up $2.00 this morning? Or is a link not being updated somewhere?

Thursday October 8, 10:22 am Eastern Time

NEW YORK, Oct 8 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Thursday declined comment on reports from traders that the central bank was intervening in the foreign exchange market or checking rates.

The dollar, which fell sharply on Wednesday, posted another big decline versus the yen Thursday, dipping to 111.63 yen -- its lowest in more than a year -- before recovering in U.S. morning trade to above 119 yen.

A New York Fed spokesman said that the Fed frequently checks market rates for various reasons but could not confirm such an action Thursday.

Hi All, Best wishes to All

Although ECU has trade agreements which decree a specific measure of fine gold ( "0,888761" if memory serves ) as a unit of account--albeit only with
countries which will be 'enfolded' into EU at some point--all others must make do with the 'basket'...Gold has "contractual obligations" until 1999.
Remember this:
"23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US
dollars as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement..."

Until Jan ~ Feb ( when redenomination of debt should be completed ) , the currencies, including GOLD, are linked by bands of high quality German steel. Steel can be cut, but it isn't easy! {:- ) )

info on PGD! Sounds exciting. I always had a good feeling about their management!

- Steve

IMF's role is world's most legalized and respected but in essence is currency speculator not unlike Soros, they started it all

IMF's role is world's most legalized and respected but in essence is currency speculator not unlike Soros, they started it all

The PPT is proping up the $. The market is tanking. The PPT is propping up the DOW to prevent panic. TBonds are tanking. Wait the stock market and bonds going down at the same time thats not supposed to happen.

The PPT could run out of money at this rate. Maybe they will call on Goldman etc. to bail them out. Its only a matter of time before the gold carry unravels. Don't let short term setbacks shake you out of your PM positions.

GOLD is ready for a moon shot!

BUY GOLD!!!

Took a tip from our bud Gollum. A man to be listened to.
-EJ

image downloading by clicking on "Options" on the top menu, then click on "Auto Load Images" so that the check mark disappears.

It'll speed up Kitco, and it means you get your info faster- if you don't mind missing all the pretty picture, of course : )

- Steve

With the OEX to follow.

Watch out below.

My swing says we're in the midddle of this move
So lots more downside before we hit a capitulation bottom.

Yet even barring a speedy market recovery,
Angell said, the perception of risk to the U.S.
economy will virtually compel the central bank to
cut rates further.
"Eventually, the Fed will reinflate and the next
recession will not come until we have an increase
in the rate of inflation and the Fed gets back to
doing what it always does to cause recessions,"
Angell said. "Recessions always come when the
Fed is pushing rates up, not when the Fed is
moving rates down."


At the same time, Angell asserted the Fed had
been successful in arresting the decline in gold
prices, "so we're not going to see a continuation of
the deflation which now is pretty well confined to
scrap steel prices."

http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/economy/9810/07/angell/

Gold still at 300.10 or over anyone know.

report on CNBC on MF fees: Vanguard is slipping a little flyer in the MF statements being mailed: "Keeping Calm During Market Turbulence"

All those Tech Stocks!!! Wait till Y2K looms closer ...

Can someone tell us novices what/who a PPT is?

We're SLASHING prices! The HOTTEST stocks! Dell, AOL, Yahoo! Blue Chips! Internets! We're GIVIN' 'EM AWAY! Clearing out equities inventory. Making room for GOLD! Everything MUST GO! So come on down to the World Market Panic Sale already in progress!
-EJ

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-rv/business/longterm/blackm/plunge.htm

Boro
A couple of references.
1. A. Greenspan made a speech a few months ago in which he mentioned
that the US was on a brink of financial collapse in 1997and had it not been for an active intervention we would have had a meltdown.
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/daily/feb/26/plunge.htm
Some quotes:
""The government has a real role to play to make a 1987-style sudden market break less likely"
""In a crisis, a lot of deference is paid to the Fed," a former member of
the Working Group said. "They are the only ones with any money."
3. http://www.dplus.net/cln/stock.htm
4. http://www.pelagius.com/AppleRecon/980311_real.html
5. http://www.trail.com/~ami/free.htm
6. http://206.15.118.165/102997/257.htm VERY GOOD - A MUST READ!
7. http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials/market_manipulation.html ANOTHER
GOOD ONE

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST





















WASHINGTON--While bureaucrats from the International Monetary Fund and
the World Bank host the world's finance ministers and central bankers at
their annual Washington extravaganza today, a dozen eminent critics of
the present global regime will meet in a private dining room at the U.S.
Capitol to consider radical steps.



The luncheon group is eclectic--from Victor Geraschenko, chairman of the
Russian Central Bank, to Rep. Donald Payne ( D-N.J. ) , former chairman of
the Congressional Black Caucus. It is so eclectic that it will be hard
to come together on details.



But participants agree that the worldwide money crisis is deadly
serious, that the 27-year experiment in floating exchange rates has
failed and that the IMF is a big part of the problem. That puts them at
odds with the Clinton administration at a time of shattered economic
nerves worldwide.



Today's luncheon is likely to urge a long-range international monetary
conference, far from the hastily proposed crisis meeting pushed by
President Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. The
administration envisions a new international facility pouring emergency
money into Russia, Brazil and other troubled economies. The luncheon
group wants a new international monetary structure for the 21st century.



But what structure? Jack Kemp will argue that world currencies must be
anchored by gold. But that is rejected by billionaire investor George
Soros and his associate Stanley Druckenmiller. Gregory Fossedal of the
Alexis de Tocqueville Institution says the time is not propitious for
mentioning the ``G-word'' but does want to change the U.S. dollar's
status as the world's reserve currency, a change Kemp opposes.



Fossedal arranged the lunch to discuss the latest report, not yet
released, of his bipartisan watchdog IMF Assessment Project. It takes
issue with the IMF, which claims to be essential to preventing a global
economic meltdown. The report contends that, over the last five years,
the IMF has made receipt of money conditional on ``increasing tax rates
on personal income.'' Moreover, ``the IMF of 1998 is substantially less
open than the IMF of 1992.'' It next expresses ``an institutional
concern'' over the appearance of a ``revolving door''--IMF alumni moving
into top positions with investment companies, including hedge funds.
``There is a potential for an improper flow of information to selected
beneficiaries ... toward `insider' knowledge,'' it warns.



That provides ammunition for a luncheon participant, House Majority
Leader Dick Armey. Aided by House Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich
and Joint Economic Committee Chairman Jim Saxton, Armey has managed to
block $18 billion demanded from the United States by the IMF.



Corporate America, the Clinton administration and even the Republican
Senate, not to mention global financiers, have pounded on Armey to act.
As finance ministers and central bankers arrived in Washington on
Friday, Clinton insinuated that failure to replenish the $18 billion is
the primary cause of the global crisis.



Rubin repeatedly has accepted the haughty contention by IMF Managing
Director Michel Camdessus that even if the United States is by far his
agency's greatest benefactor, it cannot by itself dictate reforms. On
April 10, Rubin was warned in a letter from Kemp, former Deputy
Secretary of State John Whitehead and liberal Democratic Representatives
Cynthia McKinney of Georgia and John Conyers of Michigan that refusal by
the IMF to open its operations ``may undermine confidence in the world's
economic markets.''



In a letter to Republican colleagues last week, Armey insisted that the
IMF reform itself before Congress pays. ``Congress, after all, has the
power of the purse, and ... it is entirely appropriate for us to set
guidelines on how the American taxpayers' money is spent.''





Back to Novak Page

known to come into the markets in the last 30 minutes of trading. watch today

"so we're not going to see a continuation of the deflation "

as it seems to suggest that commodities are priced in gold! How else would the Fed's yeomanlike effort to halt the fall of gold guarantee that commodity deflation is past? Poor Wayne. Alan must have called in the early hours of the morning, entreating his ole bud to get out and talk up Fed's powerful 'control of the situation'{:- ) Think we should chalk this one up to MOP action. {:- ) )

from within the Kitco frames...if you wish...email me at tolerant1@msn.com and I will forward a copy of the article to you...

Granted the Australian, New Zealand & Canadian Dollars and even the US dollar are now worth so little that a Silver Dollar may not be feasible and thus everything from $2 down is coined in base metals.
But why not Silver coins for $5, $10, and $20? ( 1/4oz, 1/2oz, & 1oz )
( skipping the $50 since Silver would be too big and Gold too small )
And why not GOLD coins for $100, $500 and $1000? ( 1/10oz, 1/2oz, 1oz )
Good God folks!
The seignorage from $30 to $50 in Gold to make a $100 coin!
Am I missing something here?

The powers to be that go in and pump money in different sectors
and markets, at the expense of the poor working stiff...who wouldn't
be working if they were not doing their manipulation.

meanwhile the Vanguard trading desk area looks like the boiler-room scene in "Titanic"

This weeks report on Cnbc on which CEO has lost the most money on paper, should be interesting.

CNBC reports ralph acampora has lowered his dow target to 6735

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

djia mid-century support appears on schedule at 7550, last stop before black line of death.

hold the phone, CNBC sez they're gonna carry Clinton speaking soon...upcrash alert

bad as the indexes look, this is worse
http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u

Dell, Cisco and Msft. Real Titans. Worse than women's fashion trends.

i have one question for willie j. klinton ....
well two questions, the first is about monica. the second is, WHEN IS HILLARY GONNA COVER THOSE SHORTS AND SAR???

geez I just got filled on the other Nov call on that last spike down... ( now long calls from 975ish and 941ish ) I just violated all my trading system rules by doing that... now Bobby R. had better get godman and company in here soon. Man if this is the beginning of something big then let gold move big too.

pretty ugly here ....got no more levels to look out for 'cept oct 97 lows

Mkt blew apart on Acampomora's new downside target.

there goes that DJ 9/4 i/d low ... DJ now at 7494.78 ... only 7400.30 remains

So whaddaya think? Usually when the markets fall so early they come back in the afternoon. But the fall on the S&P and NASDAQ are so dramatic... it looks like real fear to me, not only big players shifting in and out of short and long positions.
-EJ

If I needed to move millions out of american markets, I would do to gold what W.B. did to silver.

The new Dow song Everybody now sing Bye Bye Miss American Pie The eight year version

It's hard to say, but this is a steady relentless powerfull decline. Not some little knee jerk thing. I think it will conitnue into Friday.

Dec Gold positive...Movin' on up to the west side! Heh Heh Heh!
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/commodities.html Go Gold!

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2814
If you want good news on world trade, look elsewhere.

This representative of the international tanking industry provided the House Transportation Committee with a long list of disaster areas. There was no list of successes. He didn't even try. My hat is off to him. He basically said, "We're ****ed. Thanks for listening."

http://www.house.gov/transportation/y2k/benner.htm
----------------------
95% of U.S. Trade Comes Through Our Ports ( Noncompliant )
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2811
I only need mention that according to the Energy Information Administration, more than 50 percent of the oil consumed in this country comes to us from foreign sources through our ports. Add to this the fact that 95 percent of all the overseas cargo entering the U. S. comes via our ports, and over 97 percent of that comes in foreign ships. Any disruption of the cargo and especially oil flow, for even a few days, would have a discernable effect on our economy, particularly during the winter heating season.
-----------------------
This one is a must see.
http://www.house.gov/transportation/y2k/9-29-98memo.htm
So much info, so little time.

Now. Back to the markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_updn.ht&s=620656300

they just don't get it, do they? you can't have the PE ratio go to many hundreds ( thousands even at some points ) forever ...

ahh... if only my finalbell.com account were real... shorted YHOO to my hearts content there :- )

Look at the recent action in the gold, dow, and 30 year treasury. Very telling. Japan is definitely taking money home. ( IMHO ) . The rules of the game have changed. Are "they" still in control? I don't think so and I think that they are starting to realize it.

We are in a major currency crisis.... and its just beginning. ( againIMHO ) back to work.

There are some true traders here. Like the ancient Samurai they have conquered emotional attachment and go with what is.

Many here, however, are not. These have an emotional attachment to "being right" or seeing prices go the way they are attached to.

When the prices go up for those wanting or expecting to see a fall, the action is attributed to the "PPT". If on the other hand, they go down when up is desired the action is attributed to "manipulators".

The acronym PPT stands for Plunge Protection Team. At one time the government had a committee study what, if any, action the government should do in the case of financial panics in the markets ( they probably would have been remiss not to ) . There is some documentation of this study which is generally offered as "proof" that the PPT exists. Also any of the previously discussed price movements are often offered as well.

Is there really a PPT? I don't know.

DOW finding some strong resistence around 7500. It has bounced off about 7450 and is back up to 7650 already.

DOW finding some strong resistence around 7500. It has bounced off about 7450 and is back up to 7560 already.

Since you were all so nice and explained what PPT was ( I have been here long enough to know the answer to that ) I was hoping someone could explain what the value of the Dow means. ie if it is at 7500, 7500 what? and how is that "what" figured? Is it the totalled value ( in U.S. dollars ) of a certain number of shares in each of the companies that make up the Dow? Or... is it the price that gold would be at if people hadn't all put their money in worthless paper investments? ( If it isn't, it should be! )

There. I have exposed my ignorance for the world to see, but I know you'll be gentle with me.

As an aside. I feel much better to see a "3" again in the hundreds' column in the price of gold.

In a sluggish economy
Inflation, recession hits the land of the free
Standing in unemployment lines
Blame the governmentfor hard times

We just get by however we can
We all gotta duck
When TSHTF

10 kids in a cadillac
Stand in lines for welfare checks
Let's all leach off the state
Gee! the money is really great!

Soup lines
Free loaves of bread
5 lb blocks of cheese
Bags of groceries

Social security has run out on you and me

We do whatever we can

Gotta duck when TSHTF

FWIW Sold my Hgmcy Drooy ,back to my core position sgoly rangy arz.
Spread Plat/Gold is getting sticky,oils down in deflation mode.

Tehran and Taliban Clash
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/world/DailyNews/taliban981018.html

Iran said today it inflicted heavy casualties in the first exchange of blows with Afghan Taliban forces after weeks of tension between the hostile neighbors.

The most obvious actions of the PPT
Are when the markets are falling hard
Or at a definative support level
Which they are threatening to fall through.

Then you see B Clinton on TV
And the premium on the SP500 futures jumps 20 to 40 points.

At least that's my take.

The dollar slides causing all sorts of mayhem... Just like 1987... Now, with the impeachment vote at hand, what better way to cause a 'crisis'? I wonder, were any phone calls made lately?? Does anyone have the tapes?
:- ) )

There is talk about the largest margin call "in the history of the world" being made at 1 PM, rumored for hedge fund TIGER with margin call from Citi

What could be Gold Spot with XAU 100? XAU 125? XAU 150?

This site should help.

http://www.e-analytics.com/f13.htm

3 words we'll come to know and like.....as the "cheapest" form of money out there gold is at the root of many, many, billions of derivatives plays...as is/was yen....just watch them scramble when the unwind begins in earnest.
It really is the coiled spring, at each higher price another trade put on months, years? ago must be undone.....this really could rip the paper gold market to shreds....get physical.

Must be true ( margin call ) ...as Gold just took ANOTHER Dive.

Declines leading advances by almost 8:1

52-week: 3 new highs vs. 1358 new lows

Didn't Prechter rip apart NASDAQ's slogan in "At the Crest.."?

Tiger fund is massive.
They have been accumulating Ozzie gold shares by the bucketloads a while back.
They are linked in with many companies in the PM's

They were discussed here lots late last year.

Not sure but one of their offshoots has been picking up lots of silver plays throughout the Pacific. ( Brother of Soros involved? )

They are a massive player in the PM's.

isnt't even covert anymore...overt..."for all to see..."

"Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance..."

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ punched through their 52 week lows. I'm not sure that the folks selling today care about so-called support levels when making their sell decisions. I think Joe Sixpack is out selling today. The market seems to be dropping in waves of selling, then retracing for a breather, and then heading down lower again. I agree with your assessment that this is stronger selling than we've seen of late.

Circumstancial evidence comes from four co-workers who today told me that they planned to get out yesterday after getting their quarterly mutual fund reports. Some got around to it and those that didn't are bumming out. They fully expect the selling to go on for a good, long time. They want to lock in their losses to apply funny money losses against real income for tax purposes.

As I write this, the market appears to be done taking a breather and is now on to another run at new lows for the day.

-EJ

Why is the margin call ( s ) happening today ( vs yesterday ) ? Do some of these plays have excercise dates this Friday instead of the third Friday, or has that nothing to do with it. I'm aware of the drastic Yen/Dollar change yesterday, and would have thought the margin calls would have gone out instantly.

It's starting to feel like we're getting close to a bottom. Lot's of people selling out, Abbey Cohen revising her outlook downward, Japanese and Koreans shaking hands. Perhaps we're looking at something like:

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc010.htm

To all harmony fans ..
As you will recall, Harmony bought Evander ( a 15
mill oz resource?? ) from Goldfields for about 9 mill
shares of harmony. Well goldfields announced today
that they were going to do a ghana project and referred
to proceeds from the sale of Harmony stock ..
I interpret that to mean that all the 9 mill shares
has been eaten by the market and hopefully the overhang
at 30 rands is GONE !!.

Margin calls go out right away, but players have three market days to meet the call or be sold out.

Thanks for the news on Harmony. Say, I forget that
yen-dollar-gold ratio calculation that worked for awhile.
What would be the price of gold at present with that equation.

This is NOT a good sign for silver....if the ratio stays above 60, my next target for silver is about $4.60.

JAPANESE DUMPING T-BONDS AU MASSE
( ORACLE )
Oct 08, 12:47

As I have harped and carped for so long, the Japanese
will eventually and inevitably be forced to dump their
stash of US T-Bonds.

Undoubtedly, they have been doing so. However,divesture
of Uncle Sam's paper has considerably accelerated.
T-Bonds have sustained the largest one day loss in many
a year. Although the market is still open, T-bonds have
shed 85/32cds - that's 2-21. The 30-year yield is
already back to 5% --- and will most probably continue
to ascend as the Japanese jettison their $250 to $300
Billion T-Bond hoard. Additionally, many institutional
investors globally will jump on the bandwagonto protect
their profits and to avoid a double-whammy loss of
declining bond prices AND a crumbling US dollar.
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.htm

FWIW Plat /Gold went negative ,protect your gains.
Crude has given a major sell signal.
Cash and sidelines are at the moment attractive.
Bank leap is doing its job,more downside for the banks to come.
I wouldn't be surprised if a major one goes chapter 11 this
coming week.

Like you, I tend to believe that we might be approaching a bottom. However, tomorrow, we'll have Jerry Favors calling for tha market to head substantially lower. Who isn't bearish? Being the greater fool, I've been buying the stock market the last two days.
Aren't we supposed to buy when others are throwing them out? Seems like that's been forgotten already.

Highhopes

I'm absolutely 100% confused as to what to do with gold stks and any other stks. Still own golds but ????

,

Aha 2bro2b ..
You refer to Disney's 1st Law .. which boldly states
that the price of gold = 41250/yen = 41250/118 = 349 !!
However, as you recall, Disneys 2nd Law wisely cautions
that the 1st law does not always apply.

"Yesterday Bill Clinton discovered the international monetary system and wants to reform it. Tomorrow he will convene 500 experts and put Hillary in charge." --The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 1998

Lot's of volatility too. A traders market. APH must feel he's died and gone to Heaven. I've been both buying and selling. Sometimes it works out good, sometimes I have to get the heck out. Loads of fun though.

...& thanx.

That's a tempting chart. The problem is that I don't believe charts tell you anything, statistically speaking. In fact, they can be a real distraction from more relevant but less easily displayed info. For more of my full rant on charts, see below : )

A lot of bears are calling for a turn-around mid-October. By sense is that there's more bad news out there that has not yet been factored into stock prices. ALso, the bad news is starting to create its own bad news. Declining economic projections are scaring consumers and corporate buyers who are buying less, causing declining economic projections, etc. This seems to be hitting capital spending by corporations before consumers, although they are starting to cut back on buying goods on credit. I don't know if we'll go all the way down to where P/E's approach earnings growth rates. But I do see the market beginning to feed on itself.

-EJ

My favorite chart is the "head and shoulders pattern." When your chart is at the right-hand shoulder, that's supposed to indicate that the market's reached a capitulation point. Statistically, many studies have shown that a market's actually slightly more likely to continue down from that point than go up. Not

FWIW The price action of crude is getting very negative.
Silver is getting dumped.Gold next?
My money in the bank wheat/corn spread gaining another 2 cents
to a contract high 82 cents.
Got out of Harmony in time 5 11/16

Two choices. Sell or hedge. Sell profitable positions to lock in gains or take short positions ( shorting against the box ) to lock in gains if it appears to you that your holdings will decrease in value. When you think your holdings have 'bottomed', close the short position and take your profits on the short and you still have your long positions intact. Tax wise, the scene has changed due to Klinton's 'oversight'. One other word of caution, depending on whether you use options or actual shorting, be sure to TELL YOUR BROKER WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO DO. I had a nasty experience with one broker who mis-handled everything and had me out on about $40K margin when I was actually in cash.............. Oh yes, the markets may other thoughts on what it wants to do versus what you want to do. :- )

Just to let you know that Ralph, a raging bull down to a month ago, is lowering his target of a technical bottom for the Dow from 7400 to a range of 6500 to 7000. I view his shift as significant inasmuch as he is the chief technical analyst for Prudential Securities and had hopes for a market bottom at 7400. Now is is arguing that the 7400 resistance will not hold. Be careful of this market, the bottom isn't in yet.

As for gold, Acampora feels that if gold can stabilize above $307.70, then he believes the way is open to between $335 and $350 in the near term. This from an equity bull.

It all depends on where you think we are. It's like when your hiking up a heavily wooded mountain, sometimes you think your at the summit, and you keep walking and find out the rise you just finished climbing is not the summit but just another peak. That's what it's like investing in a bull market. Except you don't really know that you were on the peak when you were there, only in retrospect as you begin to climb back down the other side and notice that you're losing altitude and you can see only lower peaks ahead. In a bear market it's the same. One way to guess you're at the peak is when everyone who's with you begins to agree that the mountain goes on up forever, you'll never reach the top. Conversely, you can guess you're at the bottom of the other side when everyone who's with you begins to agree that the next mountain doesn't exist. There are no more mountains. There is only the endless plain.

I think we're one peak down from the summit with many to go before we get to the plains. You may choose to play the peaks on the way down. But no one knows how high each peak is either. And no one has a map.

-EJ

The sheer chaos that is unfolding within the financial markets has now reached a level that simply requires government intervention within the foreign exchange sector. We have warned repeatedly that government intervention is wrong and that it disrupts the world economy by attempt to force the free markets to move in a direction counter-trend to the true underlying economics. The big trade that everyone was on was long the German mark and short the Japanese yen. This cross has fallen from 8308 to 6990 is 4 days. This in part was another phase of the great Euro trades that are now causing a global meltdown of untold proportions.

The political aspirations of the great Euro merger has set the world economy is a very dangerous position. By telling the world that on January 1st, 1999 all member states of EMU would have the same interest rates and that their bonds would all be converted into Euros, they set in motion a giant wave of capital that sought the perfect riskless trade of the century. Long Term Capital Management was at the top of the list buying all the weaker bonds of the Euro members and shorting that against the German. This trade caused the miracle convergence of interest rates within Europe without any cost to the governments. Politicians took the credit for their wonderful vision, but in reality we are now paying the dire price for this folly.

Continental Europe had itself become an emerging market with capital betting on reform that would sweep the region. Economists joined in and touted how the Euro would replace the dollar in world trade and Europeans cheered. The nationalistic fever from some European states painted pictures of Europe becoming the largest economy in the world shifting the balance of power away from the United States in a vain attempt to resurrect the 19th century. But in the same manner as capital bid up Russia on expectations of long-term future gains, the same became true in Europe. No one bothered to ask the hard questionJust how long would economic convergence really take? Stocks were bid up on visions of grandeur and hedge funds were enticed into convergence trades assuming that this was what the safest bet in town behind the guaranteed investments in Russia based upon the IMF.

We have been living in a world where intervention has been the name of the game. It has cost governments precious little more than words. But it is now the lack of words coming from the G7 and its failure to reach any coherent policy that now threaten to topple the world economy is far more damaging ways than even we dare to speculate. The collapse in the dollar has not been caused by speculation against the dollar but by liquidation of cross-rates. However, the collapse in the dollar has now wiped out whatever profits the Japanese banks may have had on the foreign holdings. If anything, this rise in the yen may now seal the fate of Japan and push everything over the edge.

Transactions in the Nikkei have now shifted. The rise in the value of the yen is causing selling from overseas sending the index down. The Nikkei has fallen to our Yearly Bearish Reversal of 12,882 and a move below this area now threatens to send this index plummeting toward 9700. Capital around the globe is running in every direction toward liquidity and safety. This suggests that there will be no foreign buyers in almost any country as capital retrenches back in time. The interbank market has also collapsed, as dealers cannot possibly cope with the risk causing market-making to vanish rapidly. All this amounts to is less liquidity and higher volatility.

We must now remain very concerned that the collapse in the dollar could lead to a knee-jerk liquidation of US and European bonds by Japanese banks that woke up to find the balance sheets vaporized this morning. While this trend is being offset by a rise in demand from domestic capital turning away from equities moving toward bonds within the US and Germany, we could now transpose volatility into the government bond markets globally as well. Repatriation from the US investors now scrambling to get out of Europe may harm also spill over causing the Euro to be postponed entirely. If the European politicians fail to comprehend the seriousness of what has just now taken place and refuse to postpone the Euro, then we fear that the entire EMU will simply blow up next year.

While the US share market has not been affected directly as yet. There is little hope that this will not spill over causing a sharp drop down to 899-903 on the S&P 500 futures if not 844 before this month is out. The European share indices perhaps have an even direr outlook. Given the fact that German pension funds were fully invested by law, they cannot support the market during a decline without an emergency revision of the investment regulationssomething that is not likely to be recognized before it is too late. With Americans bailing out of Europe and European institutions fully long, there is no underlying support that is nearby. The Dax shows some support at the 3523 area followed by 3000-3170. Nonetheless, a move down to 2829 by early November may now become inevitable. While CAC40 shows some support at the 2467 level, once that area gives way, this market shows some minor support at the mid 2200 area but nothing of any long-term consequence until 1700-1800 area.

Surprisingly, gold has not responded suggesting that capital is not looking for another investment to run into, but rather a place to go that is entirely neutral. The lack of counter-trend reactions in even the dollar/yen is again a warning sign that we are dealing with liquidation and NOT new speculation. Short positions are typically quick to take profits causing a counter-trend reaction rally. So far, there have been no reaction rallies and instead we find brief sideways consolidation periods at best. This again is the telltale sign of massive liquidation.

The dollar/yen itself has been a massive casualty in the global liquidation crisis. The two key levels are 11800 and 11060. The 11800 level remains the Quarterly Bearish Reversal and 11810 is also a minor Yearly Bearish Reversal. Therefore, this area will now become an important pivot point. Technical lines in the sand show resistance at 12370 and support at 10800-10650. There is little doubt that a penetration of the 110 area would lead to a move down to the 108-106 zone. While our computer models correctly forecast a Panic for Wednesday and a potential intrday low for Thursday of this week, we do show that if todays low on the dollar holds, then the worst is over. Next week itself is also another Panic Cycle warning that we could see a rebound if support holds depending upon Fridays closing.

Our concern for the overall picture here is that virtually every investment known to man is moving in a direction to cause the maximum amount of damage within the world economy. The consequence of a strong yen will now push Japan over the edge worsening the economy depression as further asset deflation takes hold. We see no way out of this box for Japan other than to start printing yen. What Japan needed was a weaker yen and that is where the natural capital flows were taking it. However, for pure political reasons, Japanese officials maintained that they wanted to see a strong yen, despite the fact that the Japanese banking crisis may now rise in excess of 30% of GDP. This decline in the dollar/yen, despite its magnitude, has in no way changed the course of the underlying economics. While everyone is worried about the banking crisis, the pension funds in Japan are being destroyed. We are looking at the social safety net in Japan coming under attack for two reasons. First: Japanese pension funds need to make 5% in yen terms when they can collect barely 1.5% within their own economy. The government has been trying to bail out the banks through maintaining extremely low interest rates. However, this puts at risk the corporations in Japan as well as the pension funds. Secondly: those institutions that have been investing overseas are now suffering from major losses due to recent moves. The events of these past few days have now insured a further economic deterioration in Japan that ultimately leads to the monetization of its problems which in turn will still result if dollar/yen reaching 278 by 2003.

These recent events will undoubtedly cause a few more dead bodies to fall out of the closets. Exactly who and when is difficult to say. Nonetheless, there is a high probability that liquidity will not return soon and that the natural economic conditions will eventually determine the fate of all nations. The failure of the IMF has set the stage for this global economic disaster. The failure of the G7 to come to some cohesive strategy over the weekend has led capital to throw in the towel this week. The US must STOP trying to resurrect the IMF. They cannot restore confidence in the emerging markets by flushing another $18 billion drain the drain we call the IMF. The contagion has arrived. It is now within our midst and if spreading from sector to sector. Our illustration here if from our special report of 1997. It now stands as a testament to something perhaps none of us want to hear. We must give up on the idea of the IMFit wont work anymore! The Euro must be postponed before a second shock wave takes hold next year. Japan must now deal with the issue of its banking crisis and use public funds, through monetization, to begin a workout of the bad loans. The Fed must stand pat and resist lowering interest TOO FAST or it may accelerate the liquidation process and further complicate the delicate international capital investment flows. Unfortunately, the ripple effects of all these events have yet to fully impact the world at large. That, however, is only a matter of time and in todays atmosphere this could be only a matter of a few weeks.

Source: Martin A Armstrong

"Fed has complete control over the price of Gold. And therefore the price of oil so as to avoid a deflationary spiral."

Source:- Bears Sterns chief economist Mr. Angel a former Fed chairman said the following to Lou Dobbs Shown on CNN.

And rightly so. A chart is only a picture of what happened in the past. You then have to temper what it tells you with how similar or different conditions are today from then. That particular chart compares the years 1990 and 1985 ( averaged together ) to the current index. It so happened that those years were similar in pattern and trend.

This year, however is much different. Record low long bond rates, record drop in dollar against the DOW ( since back in the 70's ) , various other records coupled with global econonic chaos.

I think we will see a lot of snap crackle and pop before the bull returns. This market will not have a bottom. It will have a lot of bottoms.

Not a bull market, not a bear market.

A rattlesnake market.

And rightly so. A chart is only a picture of what happened in the past. You then have to temper what it tells you with how similar or different conditions are today from then. That particular chart compares the years 1990 and 1985 ( averaged together ) to the current index. It so happened that those years were similar in pattern and trend.

This year, however is much different. Record low long bond rates, record drop in dollar against the DOW ( since back in the 70's ) , various other records coupled with global econonic chaos.

I think we will see a lot of snap crackle and pop before the bull returns. This market will not have bottom. It will have a lot of bottoms.

Not a bull market, not a bear market.

A rattlesnake market.

Reminds me of silver in 1979. I was there. From its low it was
only suppposed to make a small move up. When that was reached, well, maybe it could go .35 cents higher. When that target was reached. Maybe it could go to $7 but that would be the end. When that was reached
you were specualting but the price might reach $8.50. But it was oonly
for gamblers. ETC. ETC.

Now it is golds turn. First $300 then maybe $310 then up to the
top of $335. When that is broken the new target will be $350 to $375.
After that is taken out $450 but don't count on it. Only for speculators.
ETC. ETC.

This is how markets climb to "unprecedented highs". This is how
traders eventually lose making the big money.

I think the battle between gold and silver is being won by GOLD.
Don't fight the last war. Gold has declared itself the big winner.
Silver may rise but it will be less and later. There are many reasons
for this. Buffett buying silver, IMHO, is just a diversion for his
real BIG investment in gold. GOLD is money. Only sometimes is silver
money and that needs a govt decree. Gold does not. It has always been
money for international settlements. The trading volume per day for
gold averages $61 Billion. The NYSE averages $28 Billion. The AMEX
$1 Billion.

The gold market is hugh. The silver market is almost non-existant
by comparison.

I think junk silver coins are the only silver investment worth
taking. IMHO. So far that has turned out to be true. It may not be
true tomorrow, but it is true today. Gold Stocks. Gold Coins. Psychology
favors GOLD not silver.

Just ask yourself what the "BOOMERS" will want. The best? Or
second best?

Thanks, GD

You're right. Silver is getting too boring next to gold.

It's too late now, but tomorrow when I think of it I'll go downstairs and hit the silver lever.

Markets should be stimulating.

My 14:31 post erroneously listed Acampora's resistance for gold at $307.70. The correct figure should be $303.70. Significantly, Acampora had established crucial technical resistance for the Dow at 7400 and $303.70 for gold. He still sees gold as a battleground between bulls and bears.

Your information is great and much apprectiated. THANK YOU!

http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/margolis.html

Over 1 Billion shares traded on the NYSE. This is getting expensive to keep this thing going. Dec/Adv roughly 5-1 but the Dow is closing nearly unchanged.

Add to the Billion shares traded on the NYSE another Billion on the NASDAQ, we are looking at some serious Volume. This time it's Serious.

Got to like that RANGY volume. How many of those 500K shares traded today were you alls. Didn't budge the price but we all know volume preceeds price. PS- Isn't it wierd how the DOW comes back in the final hour day after day. I guess thats what is called a technical program kicking in. YEA RIGHT

Got to like that RANGY volume. How many of those 500K shares traded today were you alls. Didn't budge the price but we all know volume preceeds price. PS- Isn't it wierd how the DOW comes back in the final hour day after day. I guess thats what is called a technical program kicking in. YEA RIGHT

INDEX__PCLOS___CLOSE___%CHG____CHG
DOW___7741.69__7731.91__-0.126%___-9.78
XAU______86.63____83.43__-3.694%___-3.20
( PCLOS = prior close. )

Tomorrows XAU exit triggers @ 76.89 & 97.44

I really thought the XAU would be sucked down into the 82.x range.
Dow certainly expended a lot effort to drop 10 points...

Got to like that RANGY volume. How many of those 500K shares traded today were you alls. Didn't budge the price but we all know volume preceeds price. PS- Isn't it wierd how the DOW comes back in the final hour day after day. I guess thats what is called a technical program kicking in. YEA RIGHT

Testimony of Theodore E. Allison
October 8, 1998

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/testimony/19981008.htm
-c

might someone fetch Mr. Armstrong a sedative? Thank you.

Testimony of Theodore E. Allison
October 8, 1998

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/testimony/19981008.htm
-c

Help!
I can't figure out what happened to gold today. Weak Dollar, sell off on Wall Street and Gold weakens? What am I missing?

Anybody?

Dow down another nine today, almost ten. One yesterday, and what sixteen or seventeen the day before? I don't understand what all the commotion is about. Not much of a so called bear market.

This is what you are missing:

"Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 14:46
Cage Rattler ( Does the Fed control the gold price ? ) ID#33184:
"Fed has complete control over the price of Gold. And therefore the price of oil so as
to avoid a deflationary spiral."

Ask the Fed your question....

cheers

``The vintage year deterioration reflects the erosion in both borrower quality and loan-to-value ratios,'' according to Farooqui.

Thursday October 8, 3:31 pm Eastern Time
Losses in home equity loans continue to rise-Mdy's
( Press release provided by Moody's Investors Service )

NEW YORK, Oct 8 - Both delinquencies and cumulative losses on pools of securitized home equity loans continued to rise in the last year, according to Moody's Home Equity Index Update, released this week.

Across the sector, Moody's reports that 6.31% of the home equity loans tracked by Moody's were 60 days or more past due at the end of June this year, up from 5.00% a year ago.

Meanwhile, cumulative losses increased to 0.63% in June 1998 from 0.37% in June 1997.

``The deterioration is due to the continued seasoning of the underlying deals and a general decrease in the credit quality of the loans included in the index,'' says Rod Dubitsky, a Moody's vice president and one of the report's authors.

Dubitsky adds that "recent developments in the capital markets could also have an effect on future performance. Originators and servicers are faced with reduced liquidity, lower earnings, increased competition, and limited access to capital--events that could lead to significant industry consolidation, which in turn could lead to disruptions or dislocations in servicing.

On the positive side, the increase in quality and number of large servicers in the industry in recent years improves the likelihood that the industry can withstand such dislocations."

This latest quarterly release of Moody's Home Equity Index Composite includes three new subindices designed to provide a more precise reading of credit quality trends in three key sectors of the market: subprime, high loan-to-value ( HLTV ) and ``traditional'' home equity.

``The biggest drop by far in credit quality has occurred in the high-LTV sector, where annualized charge-off rates have reached 6% after 18 months of seasoning,'' according to the report.

``If that trend continues,'' says Dubitsky, ``lower-rated classes in some high-LTV securitizations could come under pressure.''

According to Nehal Farooqui, a Moody's analyst and a co-author of the report, the comparison of charge-off rates of HLTV pools with the other subindices clearly indicates the higher risks associated with HLTV loans.

In contrast to their modest delinquency levels, HLTV loans are experiencing loss levels substantially higher than other mortgage products.

Subprime delinquencies increased to 7.16% in June 1998 from 6.24% in June 1997. At the same time, cumulative losses increased to 47 basis points from 26. Delinquencies in the traditional home equity subindex increased to 3.80% in June 1998 from 2.56% in June 1997.

Losses also increased to 62 basis points from 37. The traditional home equity subindex performed better than the others, but its performance has also continued to deteriorate.

The report also notes continued vintage year deterioration in both the aggregate index and the subprime subindex.

``The vintage year deterioration reflects the erosion in both borrower quality and loan-to-value ratios,'' according to Farooqui.

Dubitsky adds, however, that ``the deterioration in the subprime market is consistent with expectations.''

Don't Know - but the rebound in the DOW may have signalled some profit-taking in the gold stocks. I give it a 50/50 shot to continue through tomorrow. Hoping for a reversal above 80 if it does. If it blows past 76.89 I'll be out by days end. ( this is why I'm usually 2 to 3 days late on any change of trend. ) But, being a teeny tiny investor I'll take what I can get : ) Good luck & go gold.

Waiting for words of wisdom from the Kitco elite.

Bought Dec 300 calls and puts today. Bought a couple more puts than calls.

Technically, as before, this rally is rubbing me the wrong way. Daily indicators such as stochastics and MACD histogram have topped and are showing divergence in that they are tracing out lower peaks as prices trace out higher peaks. Also, price hit the Bollinger Band top twice as this divergence was occurring. Again, as before, this rally is on falling Open interest ( short covering ) . Weekly indicators are topping, though have not signaled a top. From an Elliott point of view, since 275ish, there hasn't been strong impulse action, just choppy corrective type patterns where waves overlap each other instead of continually posting higher troughs. To me this indicates corrective action against the bear trend, and not impulsive bull action.

Though I don't follow fundamentals that much, it seems that it's not too good of a sign when the dollar can drop so far against the yen ( thought I saw on Bloomberg this morning that at one point it was down almost 7 yen since previous night ) and gold is only at 302. Also, market was down a few hundred points at one point and we're still at 302 ish.

Together, it seems like it's time for a drop again. Not sure if this is the final drop or not, but hedged a little heavier on the put side. Any thoughts either way? Thanks in advance!

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 14:46
Cage Rattler ( Does the Fed control the gold price ? ) ID#33184:
"Fed has complete control over the price of Gold. And therefore the price of oil so as
to avoid a deflationary spiral."

Source:- Bears Sterns chief economist Mr. Angel a former Fed chairman said the
following to Lou Dobbs Shown on CNN.

Thanx BillD -
are you saying the Fed may have intervened to strenghten the $ as was rumored throughout today or more directly targeted at gold?

"You refer to Disney's 1st Law .. which boldly states
that the price of gold = 41250/yen = 41250/118 = 349 !!
However, as you recall, Disneys 2nd Law wisely cautions
that the 1st law does not always apply.
Think you're still in the money...
it's just different money! {:- ) )

Look just a tad to your left. Figures for 10/5/98
JPY:Euro 162.574 POG 40336.6 yen/162.574 JPY:Euro = 248.112
POG Euro 10/5/98 248.338
[Figures from Oanda]

Salud. To the Laws of Disney!

Nearest TED spread ( Dec tbills over Dec Euro ) exploded 9pts today. Nice safe way to bet on increasing chaos. This spread is a big positive for GOLD!

Buy GOLD!!

Dow ( 30 Industrials ) closing recovery?..... Blatant manipulation of the most watched most
quoted stock market index?.... ( 2 days in a row no less! ) .....With todays big
volumes....make it look like a climatic reversal day? Sure looks like it when one peruses
some of the other indexes llike A/D...Hi Los Etc Etc. This Bear has yet to stand on its
hind legs and show its true stature IMHO.

I'm not bright enough to do it very well. Seems all roads lead to the ECU and keeping things in check for now. Makes one almost believe in conspiracies. Not me, I just deal with what is: ) .

Thanks. Tom

The equity markets seem to be having some sort of problem.

Don't pay much attention to any one analyst, e.g., Ralph Acompora. He can change his mind overnight. I know some people being ruined by holding to Abby J. Cohen's standing bullish call. They base their decisions on what she says.
As for me, I've never seen such a confluence of bearishness sonce 1974.
Enjoyed your reply, as well as Gollum's.

Highhopes

OR is it the inflow to DOW index funds which have to be committed before the close. After all it is the Dow which has been king o the world. Maybe not all PPT but the Public dipster money being committed. It was comical to see how the 30 year old money managers are now focusing on consumer stocks ( which will probably consume them ) .

I'm almost ready to give in and acknowledge at least the possibility of a PPT. I mean, how hard can it be to make 30 stocks go up? Seems odd that this highly visible index goes back up in the final minutes of trading every day to so close to the starting point. This is behavior that's hard to attribute to chance and flight to safety. It's more like rolling one dice and getting box cars three times in a row. Meanwhile, after days of continuous heavy pounding, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 20% and 30% respectively off their 52 week highs. Broad market indexes like these are hard to impact with a buying or selling program, whether it comes from the Fed or the Trilateral Commission or whomever.

A bunch of Joe Sixpacks I know personally are psyched that the DOW wound up where it did. Tomorrow they have another chance to do what they were gonna do this morning. Sell. Of course, if a whole lot of folks are thinking that way...

-EJ

does anyone deal direct with these gold wholesale operators or others that deal directly with the mint??

Failed tests of major support levels in the S&P cash ( 940, low of Sept 1 ) and NASDAQ 100 ( 1118, low of Sept. 1 ) combined with a major expansion and then contraction in the VIX would suggest a major rally tomorrow. VIX closed yesterday at 48.27, expanded to a high of 60.63 ( 25.6% ) and CLOSED AT 48.56 !! This greatly suggests that we have seen another major turning point. Given the long weekend a rally and higher close tomorrow would imply a large continuation next week. If any here have the means I would suggest buying S&P's on Globex with S/L under 965 or as your risk parameters permit. There will probably be a substantial gap at the open tomorrow leaving those not in to try and buy dips.

Source: Forex Private Forum

does anyone deal direct with these gold
wholesale operators or others that deal
directly with the mint??

I like commodities that get used up, e.g., oil, coffee, etc.
All the gold that has ever been produced is still sloshing around; it goes from hand-to-hand. Many environmental costs, too.

Highhopes

does anyone deal direct with these gold
wholesale operators or others that deal
directly with the mint??

regarding posts overnight about ponying up some dough for some faster access:
i don't know what's already setup -- but there's probably a bottleneck from kitco's ISP down to the server. maybe kitco already has a beefy connection but i suspect a 56k ISDN line? if that's true, we should all be amazed we've got any access at all! if kitco uses a T1, they could make sure all channels are dedicated to data, not voice.
fyi, a big fat T3 connection is gonna run you upwards of FRN5000/month. speedy access ain't cheap -- keep that in mind folks. frustrated computer users cause networks to crash. patience is a virtue -- virtu is latin for "power".

fwiw...

Because I know that you jest in mocking this bear market, I will respond to your "ho hum" simply by pointing out how quickly the S&P is falling off. As I am sure you are aware, the DOW is not necessarily the best bear indicator ( or bull indicator, for that matter )

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=1ys

I also feel the urge to point out the 50 & 200 day moving averages. The 50 day is well beneath the 200 day.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=1ym

-c

does anyone deal direct with these gold
wholesale operators or others that deal
directly with the mint??

market. Wrap yourself in the flag and proclaim how equal everyone is. When the unwashed lose money they are greedy and stupid. When the rich lose money the government bails them out and swears on a Bible they will never do it again.If you don't see the hand of government cronyism and helping special interests you are naive.Loss of confidence. There is no free market. There are only rules by which few of us,if any, will ever succeed.There is only one way to correct the blatantspecial treatment offered to the few and chosen and gotta go...

Who is selling silver dollars at that price? ( more to the point what are they paying )

Maybe I'm missing something...but I've been buying at spot and holding. I'd be more than happy to be selling dollars for $9 FRN each.

Thanks

Imagine De Beers opening their vaults and ending the faux scarcity that creates the illusion of value for diamonds? Imagine the Central Banks opening their vaults and ending the faux scarcity that creates the illusion of value for gold? Tons and tons of gold. Gold everywhere. Gold paperweights. Gold cell phones. Gold laptops. Nah, too heavy.

De Beers ain't gonna do it because they'll put themselves out of business. But what about the Central Banks? To them gold is just a non-performing asset. It's nice to sell some once in a while, so that the yellow metal they own on the books @ $35/oz comes to cash at $300/oz.

Still don't know why they don't just sell it. Do you?

-EJ

Yes! The challenge is discovering what the heck "is" "is" --gee, maybe WJC had a point? {:- ) )

The problem with sharing this esoteric project is that--as it involves the major currencies XEU,JPY,DEM,USD with gold as the CENTERPIECE and the reciprocals of the participants, and the reciprocals of each to the other, there isn't an 'easy' way to explain it... It is a REAL eyes-glaze-over subject. Trust me in this {:- ) )

I'll see if I can't make it a smidgen less stupefying. It certainly has
been 'revealing'... Good trading.

maybe tomorrow, when gold skyrockets.

Did I mention they're Morgans?
-EJ

but they have sold a sh*tload of it.
As with the yen gold is "cheap" money so makes the best underlying "risk-lees" asset in a textbook Black-Scholes play. While gold and yen dropped it was an added bonus to have a cheapened loan to pay back...no problem. As gold and yen rise it is time to take a gulp and a puff and UNWIND!.....what happened to "risk-less" asset....you ASSES.

Stick to horse trading....math is for intelligent people not greedy pigs.

Surely, you would agree that there are US DOLLARS EVERYWHERE......

If you have ever tried to explore, develop and mine a gold mine, you would have had the experience that clearly indicates that "gold is not easy". That is why it IS a Precious Metal.

The gold market realtive to any other is rather small, again indicating why it IS a Precious Metal.

Or are you an armchair miner.....

Och aye the noooooooooooooooooo

No time to comment in depth ( got ta run on family errand ) but had to comment: Thanks for trying to keep everyone on their toes!

"I like commodities that get used up, e.g., oil, coffee, etc.
All the gold that has ever been produced is still sloshing around; it goes from hand-to-hand. Many environmental costs, too." highhopes.

Yup. Now I'm on a mission to find a coffee chat room. studio.drinkin' all dat' coffee before it sloshes on these moving hands!

Wait_A. Consider the fact that Gold is now below where it was last Friday - in $US terms - while the $US has plunged against the Yen and, to a lesser extent, against the European Currencies.

Right now, the $US is just under 119 Yen with Gold at $US 299.80. That puts Gold in Yen terms at about 35,676. Last Friday, when Gold closed at $US 300.50, Gold in Yen terms was 40,630. So, in four trading days, Gold has fallen almost 5,000 Yen per oz. - or about 12.2%.

Gold's reaction to this $US dive has been anaemic, to say the least. I would not be too surprised to see a fall in the XAU. Must admit I was surprised to see the Aussie Gold index still go up yesterday.

You could just conclude that the CENTERPIECE is in place to resolve some "old" problems faced by everyone but the USA. How the BIS can interplay with Europe and Japan while AG is a part of the ruling body is an interesting question. Maybe his old views still hold.

Tom

Thanks for reminding me! Was first introduced to the Ted spread

way back by Doug Casey. Set that trap many times. Caught me

some "BEAR" too.

Why don't they just sell it? I think you put your finger on it when you pointed out how any time they need some more free money for juggling the books or whatever they can sell some at $300 that was on the books at $35. Conversely whenever they get some excess funds they need to stash away they can buy some at $300 and add to their rserves at $35.

It adds an awful lot to your book keeping flexibilty to have such a rubber asset. Especially if you're going to sign up with LTCM and dance with the devil.

Check out Japan. When the Nikkei crashed, it happened starting in January 1990 and took 3 months to drop 30% to 28K. Then it took almost three years to fall from 40k to 18k. Then it bumped along from 1992 until recently when it has started it's next leg down.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=my

It's always tempting to draw parallels. The 30% decline in the S&P 500 since July might qualify as a crash. It may now whipsaw sideways for a long time. Or it may gradually decline.

I think that the fall in stock prices will not really get underway until we have more broad investor participation in the selling.

My wife FINALLY today got out of all of the few stock mutual funds she was still stubbornly holding after she got her quarterly 401K yesterday.

We read this stuff every day. Keep in mind that most folks are only beginning to suspect that all is not well in Bedrock and that getting out now may be a wise move.
-EJ

Huge 5 point up move in bonds erased in three days. Dollar getting trashed over 10% down in 6 weeks. Commercials massively short.

There is always a bull market in either gold, stocks or bonds. Stocks certainly are no longer in bull market. Bonds have been in bull market for so long all the bears are broke.

Gold is really the only candidate for a bull market. Ignore all the short term ups and downs. The huge move down in TBonds is one more engine for the gold bull.

Take off is scheduled shortly. Don't miss this once in a lifetime opportunity.

BUY GOLD!!

many shares they can trade during times of extreme volitility. The rule does not affect activity during the last 35 minutes of trading. Could this rule and it's limits be the reason so much changes in the last half hour? Also, mutual funds are only priced after the close. If I want to get into or out of a mutual fund, I wait until the last minute so I can make a better guess about what price I'll pay. Today I bailed out of 3 of my 5 municipal bond funds. I really didn't want to beleive y'all that bonds would tank too. I'm sure enjoying BEARX ( I heard about it here ) and BGEIX ( AMCent Global Gold ) and a little stash of physical these days. Are we sure the banks will wait for 1999 to TANK? I bailed out of B of A stock last week at $60, now it's $48 ( was $100 once, got half out at $96 ) . Situation looks critacal for banks already and none of this is Y2K related! Thanks to y'all I feel like I have a chance of surviving this....so far. Got gold, guns, generator, grub, and guts.

Yes, most of the snap and crackle right now comes from various big funds and such. Lots of whipsaw. If a broad based wave of general sellers comes along we'll get serious about crashing. I think the general public, though, has bought the buy it and hold it story and plan to wait it out.

If they look up from the sports or political page long enough to think about it at all.

Actually I don't mind if they keep pumping payroll deduction money into 401k accounts without thinking about it. It might be just the amount that makes the difference between major systemic failure and just getting by. I am not anxious to have the system fail.

If the whole system fails it will mean that many here will be in the same position as life boat and insurance salesmen on the Titanic.

Amen! Sounds like you grew up on true grits.

A systemic failure would be less than delux. Makes one hope the G7 can actually accomplish something. Government intervention in markets is deplorable. On the other hand, as the Minister of Finance for Hong Kong said in defense of government buying of securities, "There is as much money to be made destroying a civilization as building one."

Building one is more noble. Plus a built civilization is a lot better to live in than one that's destroyed. No hot showers.

-EJ

I've been telling acquaintances over the past couple of months that this drop was for real ( thanks to y'all and Kaplan ) , I was even able to tell them when the dead cat bounces would happen. But no one wanted to believe it. Finally, a lady in my office started swearing all day long as she watched the market fall. By the end of the day, I think she was ready to pull the trigger on her mutual funds. I think the people that follow this board are the equivalents of "Early Adopters". Most of us probably bought "Betamax" at first. But after getting burned, we still switched to "VHS" before the rest of the crowd. In other words, we've early adopted in the markets before and maybe called it wrong. But this time, I think the rest of the consuming audience will follow a little behind us.
Imrahil_A

Guess I missed some previous reference!

Thanks.

I was a missionary in a third world country and I've done the once weekly cold bucket of water shower. I'll take a functioning civilization any day.

Imrahil_A

Has anyone heard that a major English bank ( s ) is close to sustaining major losses to a poor performing hedge fund?????

I have the name of the bank and the fund but would like some degree of assurance the info I have is reliable.

Many thx if you can supply the info.

If you are leaning towards lower prices I might of gone for the 305 straddle. I don't know what price you paid but according to http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold the 300 were $1490 and the 305 were $1480. A $15.00 move in gold by 11/13 seems like a pretty good bet. I might join you tomorrow but with the 305s. If I get a move to $290, I sell and get a free ride up. Seems like easy money considering the volatility of the market lately. Good luck!

Thursday October 8, 6:42 pm Eastern Time
U.S. OPTIONS/VIX up sharply, highest since 1987
CHICAGO, Oct 8 ( Reuters ) - The Market Volatility Index , which measures implied volatility on S&P 100 options and is a key gauge of investor anxiety, surged on Thursday to its highest level since the 1987 stock crash.

``There's fear and more fear,'' said Jack Regan, derivative strategist with Josephthal & Co. ``A lot of people are just saying 'Get me out.'''

By 1050 CDT/1550 GMT, the Chicago Board Options Exchange's ( CBOE ) VIX was up 7.72 points, or almost 16 percent, to 55.99.

The OEX tumbled 14.94 points to 461.89, an eight-month low.

Opening rotations in OEX, S&P 500 , Dow and Nasdaq options were delayed by 12 minutes at the CBOE as price limits were reached on stock index futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Traders said frazzled investors were further disheartened after Goldman Sachs's Abby Cohen, Wall Street's highest-profile bull, cut her 1998 and 1999 earnings estimates for the S&P 500.

Prudential analyst Ralph Acampora, meanwhile, cut his targets for the SPX and Dow to 745-870 and 6500-7000, respectively.

``Stocks are weaker than most people perceive,'' said Jerry Hegarty, chief analyst with Cape Market Research and editor of Hegarty's Options Navigator.

``The buy and hold theory is like having cancer and refusing medical treatment,'' he said.

Traders noted continued strong interest in index puts, which were fetching top dollar.

``There's no resistance to ( put ) prices,'' Regan added.

The CBOE said OEX put volume exceeded call volume 56,600 contracts to 45,746 as of 1130 CDT/1630 GMT. SPX put volume outpaced call volume 78,063 contracts to 66,850.

during the 70's arab embargo. HuH? ( and I don't get how the gold price dictates oil pricing either...boy!, I'm way too stoooooopid to figure this one out too, maybe the Prez of Phillips66 knows...hmmmmmm....I'll ask him this weekend ) . yes.

Wow these central bankers are deluxe dickheads.....kinda' reminds you of that kid you grew up with that never had any dough when the waitress came around with the check. studio.says.stooopid.scroooooges.suck

I have been looking to buy $20000 to $313000 of gold coins immediately but everyone I speak with tells me St G's not avail. I must wire money and the bullion wholesaler will drop ship coins in three to four weeks.Where can I take delivery today???? I will get on the next available flight!!!HELP!!!!

NASA reported today that the Hubble Telescope has seen galaxies thar are 12 Billion light years from earth. Does anyone have a calculator with enough zeroes to calculate the miles. 176000x60x60x24x365x12,000,000,000?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981008/cs.html

have you asked M. Kosares@UsaGold ? he would know the best way...which will probably not suit your urgency requirement. salud!

http://www.altamira.com/96/newsline/comments.html
"CIBC fell C$0.90 to C$25.10 today after it FIRED 25 employees from its investment banking arm in Toronto in an attempt to cut costs and stem slowing profit growth."

will be bullish for gold? How about the stock market? What do some
of you gold bugs think?

Here's a quote from C. Droke:

"Interesting action taking place in our benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average as this is being written. We have written in recent weeks of our expectation for a severe collapse in the Dow that should commence sometime this month. We still hold firmly to this conviction, based on technical factors, yet the action leading up to this expected event has been nothing short of baffling. We have followed a bearish technical formation in the Dow's chartknown as an "ascending wedge"over the past month. These formations, which imply a sharp move to the downside upon culmination, usually take up to three weeks to form ( as did this one ) , and it did in fact break sharply to the downside once the apex was reached. Yet the Dow has proven to be strongly resilient in the face of growing selling pressure and has found support at the 7500 range for the third time in a two-month period. This type of action can usually be expected as a market crashesold support levels almost always provide at least some downside support before being brokenbut in this case it elicits some cause for concern."

The ascending wedge used to herald a sharp selloff, but that was in the days before the PPT. I think what Droke is missing is the fact that US markets are now manipulated. Each time the panic begins, the PPT has been able to step in and abort the selloff- but how long can this go on? At some point they're going to make a mistake, or the panic will not be responsive, and then we'll see the dam burst and unleash a flood of selling!

BTW, Gollum- the PPT was proposed by a former Fed governor, Robert Heller, in 1989. He has since retired.

..."Miller has prophesied that the Apocalypse will begin in Denver on Saturday"...

http://www.denverpost.com/news/news1008a.htm

And: wherever you go you're there ( ? )
http://207.102.98.109/forums/viewmessage.asp?postid=164679&PageNo=&thread=1

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981007/btj.html

Bought some Dec calls a couple days ago... never thought of the straddle part...guess i don't even know how..maybe you could give me some "hints"?
Picked up some $.02 Nov 5.00 puts....$150.00 bet..there is a chance..
Think "they" could beat down Allllll equities this next week...sure would good opportunity to buy PM calls..leverage better in silver than gold


Chicken man

Anyone know why?

Day traders, computers, and the internet.

"The Asian crisis taught us an important lesson -- any big party financed by other people's money must come to an end when those people find good reasons to leave the party and go home. The United States is no exception," said a Japanese government official speaking on condition he not be identified.

PREDICTION: When the DOW hits 0, gold will rise. Thats about the only safe prediction left, and this wouldn't likely pan out either will the blatant manipulation out there. Oh well atleast we made some $$$$ on our stocks this week. I sold my vgz and ssc on their little run ups for some meager profits. Lets get ready to do it again.

Let's see, some here have found gold too excitung compared to silver, or silver too boring acompared to gold. Hmmmmnnn. Well, just tug this one up a little and that one down a lttle.

Some think it weird that the DOW doesn't move with the rest. Ok, just take this one and line it up with that one.

Seems like there was something else I was supposed to do.

Oh well, maybe I can think of it before morning.

Sacred Cows have been butchered this week including YHOO, MSFT, DELL, etc. I think this scares the small investor folks more than anything, it's like taking a pee on the market's holiest icons, MSFT has certainly been the market's poster child for a while now. Started with small, moved to mid-, tore up the financials, and now it's hit the cows. I'm expecting it to get worse before it gets better ( still ) and I'm actually more bearish than most of the folks on televison are, I think the small investors of the world will surprise wall street with how scared they can get when things don't go their way. Think about how many people you know who are "hanging on" through this decline, and how many of them could have their finger on the sell button if things go down much further. I've already started hearing comments on television and radio about how the small investor should think "buy and hold" is a bunch of crap, and I suspect more and more of them will be re-thinking their strategy as time goes on ( very little time possibly ) . Who can say, it'll come out on the tape as nature permits. I guess if things get bad, we could all do the gold dance. Hold gold in your left hand, silver in your right. Turn to the left three times saying "Gold is like the sun", then turn to your right three times saying "Silver is like the moon", then think about how long they've been on this planet, and how long they've been a stable form of value.

Assuming this is a nice well behaved normal total global financial catastrophe, the DOW should bottom out right around 7000.

by watching some television.

Columbo is on tonight.

Where are all the programmers and savvy computer geeks that used to hang out here when we need them? Several of us normal uninformed amateurs have suggested that Bart's morphing announcement for Kitco.com/backup is responsible for the "7-year itch" quality of access lately. Well, here's some more evidence: I just noticed that turning off the modem while the announcement is legible ( ie. not morphing ) freezes the announcement window on my screen ( Macintosh-Netscape 2.02 ) . My suspicion is that the whole announcement keeps reloading as it morphes, thereby soaking up bandwidth. This is not unimportant. I have been left on hold every time I tried to load Kitco all day.

Please, Bart...We've got the message. Retire the morph. Don't let him back on! Or at least exile him to K-2!

I think that both of these markets are "looking" for a reason to go down....that one "sounds" as good as any....could have a little "clinton"
rally first..WSJ had good article on liquidity squeeze...hope it does"nt
get as dramatic as the Yen....could be the season of the puts

are you suggesting ( through inference ) that the Almighty Buck will not rise on the third day? is this heresy?

and yet another thought for your fine mind............given, the POG is now falling in other currencies, so, would this phenomenon tend to diminish the non-USer's incentive for selling his gold for dollars or even, the conversion of his gold to his domestic currency ( at a possible loss )

and one more.........would not the non-USer recognize this newly resultant bargain in gold pricing and purchase the precious with his strengthened domestic currency? ( as we USers have! )

muchas garcias.

GRE: Word is that the co. met with analysts and they were not
impressed ( no kidding ) . At least one analyst downgraded it to a hold.
Pretty pathetic in a Gold Bull market.........

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 8

-- TOTALS
Gold 810,596 - 146,153 troy ounces
Silver 73,513,165 - 461,817 troy ounces
Copper 67,729 + 0 short tons
*************************************************************************
Howdy everyone! I've been out of town all week so I haven't been able to
post until now. There hasn't been any real big movements in warehouse
totals this week, as far as I can tell. That is, until today! There was
146,153 oz's removed from Registered Totals today ( gold ) . That's a pretty
significant amount!
The volatility has been high this week! We should expect some more. Let's face it. There's alot of uncertainty and alot of manipulation in
some markets ( Gold and the Dow come to mind ) . In other markets, such as
the bond market and the US$, they are behaving in the fashion that we've
discussed on this forum in detail. Most everyone here felt confident that
the U.S. dollar would have to turn bearish sooner rather than later!
As to bonds, it's still too early to determine its long term direction,
but I guess I'm still on the possible stagflation bandwagon scenerio.
Obviously, time will tell... Gotta go! BBML Fox-man

We have a Gentlemen's agreement here .....We ALL agree to be a "Gentle"
men!!!!!!!

One of the rules was we don't "rag" on BART!!!!!!....OR each other..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=620870542

Thursday, October 8, 1998
Barrick sees profit growth through 2000
DENVER, Oct 8 ( Reuters ) - Barrick Gold Corp., ( TSE:ABX ) the second largest gold producer in North America, said that it foresaw profitability improving through to the year 2000.
 Toronto-based Barrick credited its innovative hedging program, considered one of the best in the gold industry and its "revenue maximization" program, for the rosy earnings outlook.
 "We have just completed the third quarter, and while I can't give you any numbers as yet, I can say that the momentum is continuing with higher production, lower costs and the obvious impact on the bottom line," Chief Executive Officer Paul Melnuk told delegates during a presentation at the Denver Gold Group's annual conference on Thursday.  "Overall, 1998 is going to be a fine year for the company, in which we'll see a healthy increase in earnings and cash flow over the year previous. Furthermore, this growth is expected to continue in 1999 and 2000," Melnuk said.
 The company would produce 3.1 million ounces of gold at a cash cost of $164 an ounce in 1998.
 Toronto-based Barrick also said it would produce 3.5 million ounces at a cash cost of $150 an ounce next year.
 Barrick forecast production of 3.7 million ounces of gold in 2000.
 Gold was fixed today at $300.40 an ounce.
 Achieving those targets will depend partly on production at Barrick's new low-cost Pierina mine in Peru, scheduled to begin production in December, the gold giant said before the company's presentation to the Denver Gold Group's annual conference on Thursday.
 Barrick said it expected Pierina to produce 50,000 ounces by the end of 1998. The mine is expected to produce about 750,000 ounces of gold annually at an operating cost of $50 an ounce, strengthening Barrick's reputation as one of the world's lowest-cost gold producers.
 Barrick earned $67 million, or $0.18 a share, on revenue of $296 million in the second quarter of 1998, compared with a profit of $62 million, or $0.16, on revenue of $314 million for the same period last year.
 Barrick has benefited from an innovative hedging program, considered one of the best in the gold industry, which allowed the company to sell forward its gold at an average price of $400 an ounce for total proceeds of $73 million in the second quarter. Barrick maintains a hedge position of 10 million ounces at that gold price through to 2000, a position worth about $750 million over the spot price of gold if closed out today.
  ( Figures in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted. )

I bought some dogs today, we watch this gold market go up together, yes?

Thursday, October 8, 1998
Freeport-McMoRan chief bullish on gold
DENVER, Oct 8, ( Reuters ) - James Robert Moffet, chief executive of U.S. mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. , delivered a fire and brimstone rant against gold skeptics, currency traders and supporters of international bailouts on Thursday.
 Moffet, known simply as "Jim Bob" in the tight-knit mining community, told an international gold conference here that the heavy selling of bullion over the past year had been shortsighted. He predicted the precious metal would return as an important hedge against international crises and financial uncertainty.
 Gold tumbled this summer to 18-year lows near $270 an ounce, but interest in the metal has soared during the past six weeks as jittery investors reacted to falling international equity markets, the near collapse of a prominent U.S. hedge fund and a weaker U.S. dollar.
 Gold closed at 298.80 an ounce on Thursday.
 Moffet was clearly delighted by the modest comeback.
 "Last year when I was here I said that maybe people, since they thought gold wasn't working anymore, were going to put cabbage behind their money. I think some of the people in the hedge funds wish they had," Moffet said in his trademark southern U.S. twang.
 He also lambasted speculators for the recent currency crises in Asia and Russia and heaped scorn on the World Bank and International Monetary Fund for attempting a quick-fix solution to the problems of troubled economies around the world.
 "We have to go back to stabilizing the currencies and getting some political stability in the world instead of coming up with a 'black box solution.' Forget about the black box....the only long-term-capital is gold," Moffet asserted.
 Although low gold prices have visited hardship and a general shakeout on the gold-mining industry, Moffet saw no need to pass the collection plate in Denver.
 He said New Orleans-based Freeport, one of the world's largest and lowest-cost gold and copper producers, was well positioned to prosper during hard times.
 Freeport, which is heavily invested in Indonesia, has focused on a two-part strategy designed to lower costs and increase copper and gold production.
 "We are the lowest cost producer because of our high gold and silver credits and the high grades of copper ore, so obviously were are going to be the survivor," Moffet said.
 Freeport's Grasberg open-pit mine, located in Irian Jaya, a part of Indonesia bordering Papua New Guinea, is the cornerstone of the company's operations, accounting for the lion's share of the 1.8 million ounces of gold and 1.2 billion pounds of copper produced in 1997.
 Freeport expects the recent expansion of Grasberg's mine and mill facilities will increase production to 2.7 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper this year.
 "This ore body ( Grasberg ) contains more copper and gold than all the copper and gold that has ever been discovered in Papua New Guinea,"

http://globefunddb.theglobeandmail.com/gishome/plsql/gis.analyser
Try it for 15, 20 & 25%. Whats going to happen when gold finally gets legs?

Gold Dancer, I enjoyed reading your 15:01. It had some of my all time favourite scenarios and subjects involved, and the precious metals were even mentioned going in the right direction ( straight up! ) . However, I can only give a B- for storey line, B+ for imagination and a definite E- for logic. Silver hit its absolute low a FEW YEARS ago and as such has been the leading metal in an established bull market. Gold has just RECENTLY put in its absolute low ( we assume ) . In recent history ( last 30 years ) Silver has always gone up ( in rising markets ) greater percentages than Gold. If Gold hits $600 or $800 or $1,000 what price do you think Silver will be in each case? Since we are presently at about $300 Gold and $5.00 Silver do you really believe that by the time Gold hits $600. Silver will be less than $10.00? Or that if Gold hits $1,000. you will still be able to buy Silver for less than $17.00? Take two Tylenol, watch the funny, ( if slightly exaggerated ) movie 'Trading Places', THINK about it, and call Dr. Mooney's secretary in the morning and book a consultation for my upcoming seminar 'coping in the new millenium'.

I've missed your posts this week,any thoughts on the week so far ?

ChickenMan!

What I said was meant to help not "rag" on Bart. If we try to be too "gentle" no one will dare say anything around here.

Puff, puff, gulp, gulp! At least we still have that, don't we?

Away! with all amorphous, equivocating hedge-talk!!!
There will be no impeachment.

Why? you ask....... Because the legislators fear for their lives...being murdered can really screw up your day.

You and me both mole. It's make it or break it time. We are riding the cusp ( of what I'm not sure but we are on the bleeding edge ) . Mush you little doggies, mush. Oh sh*t, I just stepped into some purple dogiie.doo.

http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&volume=y&stochastics=y&symbol=%24INDU

Consider all the aspects.

It doesn't matter to the investor why, as long as his investments
are in the money. Y'all keep up the manipulation theories. I say
so what. If that's the way "THEY" play the game, join them- don't
fight 'em.

Have a good one.

Guess every MAN can be want he wants to be......Amen

The PPT. How might they operate? Do they have paid informants that place buy orders but keep quite about the true buyer? Do they get the buy orders on a tape that goes up in smoke after they get the instructions?

It's preposterous. The instant the Brazilian gov't starts buying stocks to support the market before an election, a tried and true tradition, EVERYONE knows it and the non-news makes it into the press like a report of a drunken brawl on New Years Eve. To be expected. The INSTANT that the Hong Kong government began to buy stocks, traders caught them in the act and... whoosh. News. And that was real news, too. Much under-rated. AG feaked. It told him that things are really out of hand.

So how can the PPT work so mysteriously that their trades don't get reported? The answer is that they don't. When they so much at LOOK at forex, they are noticed and are called on it.

Forget about the PPT. There are even more interesting things going on than yet another banal government conspiracy. When the US gov't gets into the fray, you will know it. The event will be as mysterious as an earthquake.

-EJ

short term money opened up by 50% today.........

are complete! This is significant!!!!!! The main tool for manipulating the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of only 30 companies. Very easy to manipulate! The broader market is not as easily played with. Just look at the last two days. http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24SPX
This is the cash S&P 500 index on a hourly basis. A case can definetly be made for wave 1 to be complete, with wave ( 2 ) directly ahead. This could be a significant rally! I could also be VERY Wrong, and the 3rd wave is in process with a count such as this in the S&P. The wave 1 decline complete with wave 2 up until late August, with wave -1- of the 3rd down into August 31, with all the corrective action in September, an a-b-c-x-a-b-c for a wave -2- of the 3rd. We have 5 clear waves down to a possible wave i of -3- of the 3rd with the Crash smack dab in front of us after this upmove from todays lows are complete. It seems like it wants to smash down hard, but it also seems like the P.P.T. has been hard at work the last few days. the market will still do what the market will do. Prolonging the enevitable sometimes makes it worse, which would also support a terrible decline scenario because of manipulation.
You might make the case that this latest 5 wave down is a failed 5th wave, but it could be wave 1 of whatever lies directly in front of us.
In other words, wave 2,3,4,5 are still to come. This can be very confusing if you don't have a grasp of Elliot and you may feel like Waving goodbye to this post, and I wouldn't blame you. REMEMBER, the markets want to fool as many people as they can!

Thats Mole, with a capital M, kitkat, there is another mole around here somewhere, has more experience investing in the precious metals, did not care for his political economy though. I'm in now, I've invested in the barbarous relic.

The morphing banner on Kitco is what is known as an mgif, or "moving gif." It does not place any additional load on the server except that it is slightly larger than other banners ( this one is ~95k ) . If it is causing your browser trouble, I'd suggest upgrading to a newer browser ( try Netscape 4.0x ) .

I read a post days ago suggesting that keeping the posting window open on Kitco might cause server lag; I submit to you that it cannot. The only things that cause the server to work ( and thus get bogged down ) are requesting files ( loading pages ) and creating new posts. The suggestion that users turn off images on pages is a valid one ( set autoload images to off ) , it saves the server the trouble of sending them and saves you the trouble of waiting for them. Also, setting text mode to short means that the server can send you the forum faster and move on to the next request, and that you can receive it faster.

Perhaps the best suggestion is that everyone buy a coin from Bart so that he can justify buying a bigger server and ( possibly ) a faster internet connection. IMHO.

Thanks

Mr. Mole, apologies for the capital crime.
PH in LA - those animated gifs have a life of their own once they are downloaded for the first time. They should not be causing server slowdowns. To test this, save the gif on your hard drive. Once disconnected, double click on it and you will still see the animation. Another clue is that the modem receive light does not flash while the gif is being displayed and no other data is comming in. Chicken bird seems to get ruffled too easily . IMHO.

that leads me to think that a near term reversal in
currencies, golds, markets are in order-

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha50.gif

Besides, we still have to test the top, right?

that leads me to think that a near term reversal in
currencies, golds, markets are in order-

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha50.gif

Besides, we still have to test the top, right?

Aah- the life of a contrarian isn't always an easy one!

how does Bart handle deliveries?? May I fly up Friday & take delivery...if so what are the import regs.

BUT do look at this chart, as to timing- http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx

I would say 7.5 may be a buying area, and in another 6 weeks or so?

Hope I'm not the only one that sees these things.

a failed 5th wave because it did not make a new low.
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&chart=bar&chart1=ma&rsi=y&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24indu&time=day
I also meant to post this chart. Sorry.

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 08:42
Realistic ( @farfel - The bond market ) ID#410194:
Copyright  1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing
bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

-------------------

Based on the last few days of decimation in the bond market, ReaLGB, they are calling me up today, thanking me for keeping them out of bonds.

Moreover, based on the 80% increase in the value of gold stocks over the past month, they are thanking me even more for guiding them to a true repository of value.

Just keep those cards and letters coming.

( Hey, where are you today, old bean? What is it? YOu always run and hide on days like today....but you're all over Kitco on days when things are going your way, sadistically kicking goldbugs whenever they're down ) .

My prediction for bonds...you don't want to hear it.

THanks.

F*

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 08:42
Realistic ( @farfel - The bond market ) ID#410194:
Copyright  1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing
bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

-------------------

Based on the last few days of decimation in the bond market, ReaLGB, they are calling me up today, thanking me for keeping them out of bonds.

Moreover, based on the 80% increase in the value of gold stocks over the past month, they are thanking me even more for guiding them to a true repository of value.

Just keep those cards and letters coming.

( Hey, where are you today, old bean? What is it? YOu always run and hide on days like today....but you're all over Kitco on days when things are going your way, sadistically kicking goldbugs whenever they're down ) .

My prediction for bonds...you don't want to hear it.

Hey, How's Loral doing? How's the 401K?

THanks.

F*

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 08:42
Realistic ( @farfel - The bond market ) ID#410194:
Copyright  1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing
bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

-------------------

Based on the last few days of decimation in the bond market, ReaLGB, they are calling me up today, thanking me for keeping them out of bonds.

Moreover, based on the 80% increase in the value of gold stocks over the past month, they are thanking me even more for guiding them to a true repository of value.

Just keep those cards and letters coming.

( Hey, where are you today, old bean? What is it? YOu always run and hide on days like today....but you're all over Kitco on days when things are going your way, sadistically kicking goldbugs whenever they're down ) .

My prediction for bonds...you don't want to hear it.

Hey, How's Loral doing? How's the 401K?

THanks.

F*

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 08:42
Realistic ( @farfel - The bond market ) ID#410194:
Copyright  1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing
bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

-------------------

Based on the last few days of decimation in the bond market, ReaLGB, they are calling me up today, thanking me for keeping them out of bonds.

Moreover, based on the 80% increase in the value of gold stocks over the past month, they are thanking me even more for guiding them to a true repository of value.

Just keep those cards and letters coming.

( Hey, where are you today, old bean? What is it? YOu always run and hide on days like today....but you're all over Kitco on days when things are going your way, sadistically kicking goldbugs whenever they're down ) .

My prediction for bonds...you don't want to hear it.

Hey, How's Loral doing? How's the 401K?

THanks.

F*

Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 08:42
Realistic ( @farfel - The bond market ) ID#410194:
Copyright  1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer my question of the other day when you get a chance, thanks.

Bonds reached yet another all-times high a few days ago. ( Dec bonds above 135.00!!! )

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing
bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

-------------------

Based on the last few days of decimation in the bond market, ReaLGB, they are calling me up today, thanking me for keeping them out of bonds.

Moreover, based on the 80% increase in the value of gold stocks over the past month, they are thanking me even more for guiding them to a true repository of value.

Just keep those cards and letters coming.

( Hey, where are you today, old bean? What is it? YOu always run and hide on days like today....but you're all over Kitco on days when things are going your way, sadistically kicking goldbugs whenever they're down ) .

My prediction for bonds...you don't want to hear it.

Hey, How's Loral doing? How's the 401K?

THanks.

F*

Digital words lack expressiveness, facial views & tonality much similar to chicken lips.

Gold ( CMX )
Dec
301.60
303.80
301.40
303.80b
+2.30
10/8/98
19:01

"We don't need no stinkin' waves". ........ {:- ) )

As a prognosticator of low talent, I have to agree wit yer assessment of the SP. It looks like it wants to go up for a rally, really bad. But probably not without a violent down blast, at the open, to shake off those pesky long barnicles it picked today in the last half hour of trading. ...... Brokerage house flacks are increasingly bearish, folks are getting scared, put writers can't seem to keep up with demand ...... all is in place for sky rockets and dazzling displays of old fashioned yankee buggery in the market place. ........ Now if the brokerages would only go back to the way things were and continue to ignore gold completely for the first POG $200, we would all be better off. ........ Don't need no stinkin' brokerages on our side.

i want to apologize if you have had to incur an derision which should have been my load alone to bear. i have tried to conduct myself in a non partisan way since noticing your appearance. You have conducted yourself very well indeed. my cross to bear in this life is being a liberal democrat inside my culture and an existentialist outside my culture. so, as you can see, i am often at cross currents with my fellow man and woman. but, i am actually a pretty decent person if you can excuse those other two sins.

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

Off to a lake for two days R&R.
cya

...the posts from a guy named Bryan on the discussion group at

http://www.prudentbear.com/

The NAV has increased from $168M to $300M in the past two weeks. Since the fund opened inflows have been bullish for stocks, with a jump in NAV followed by a jump in stocks. But maybe not any more. My wind sock says we have an unusual down day tomorrow. Still, I always get worried when there are too many investors on my side in a bear market.

-EJ

Another way undervalued Junior: Trillion

Look what you can buy for $5/16 now:

The following is from the June 1997 Resource Indicator. They stopped coverage at the end of Sept. 98 at US $0.25....perhaps a good sign that the bottom is in?


TRILLION RESOURCES LTD.

ACCUMULATE ( TLQ.t/$4.50 ) Suggested Investment Time Frame: 18 months
Associated Risk Level: Medium
Maximum Mental Loss: 20%

Symbol & Exchange: TLQ on the TSE
12 Month High/Low for Common Shares: $7.75/$4.15
Issued/Outstanding Shares: 27.5 million
Fully Diluted Shares: 31.5 million
Cash: $14 million plus $13 million in escrow
Contact: Michael Halvorson, Director
Phone #: 1-403-488-6789
Web Site: www.trillion-resources.com
E-Mail Address: trillion@ottawa.net

Declaration: I do not own any shares but maintain an option to accumulate after May 14,
1997 ( as per minimum one week declaration policy ) .

PLAYING WITH LEGO

Trillion is an investment in Africa. They have properties and joint ventures in Zimbabwe,
Botswana, Zaire, Mozambique, and the Ivory Coast. In addition to its exploration
properties, it also has one producing mine and options on two others. Within two years,
Trillion will be producing approximately 100,000 ounces of gold a year to become self
financing. By the year 2003, they will also have 40% interest in a producing Nickel mine
in partnership with Falconbridge.

Its liquid assets include $27 million cash ( with a burn rate of $700,000 per month, this
should last them more than two years ) , 1.5 million shares in Oliver Gold ( OGO.v )
currently worth about $3 million, CMC West Africa ( 25% direct interest ) is worth about
$40, and a 17% interest in Consolidated Mining Corporation ( South Africa ) , a
Johannesburg listed mining finance house, currently worth about $43 million. Few
Canadian companies can claim a management team with better technical qualifications or
well rounded experience than Trillion. Jens Hansen and Ron Netolitzky are the principals
of the company.

Trillion Resources has established itself as one of the leading exploration companies in
Africa and has an excellent mix of producing mines, advanced exploration projects, and
early stage exploration properties ( some with recommended Greenhope ) with significant
upside. Trillion's management team has an excellent track record for major discoveries, as
well as significant experience and contacts in many African countries. With
approximately 27.5 million shares issued, it is fairly valued and should be considered a
core holding.

THE LEGO PIECES

Jena Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

Trillion acquired its 50% interest in this mine approximately four years ago and operates
this small producer in partnership with ZMDC, the state mining company. Production will
total approximately 20,000 ounces in 1997. A $4 million exploration program is planned for
Jena with a goal of expanding additional reserves and consequently production by about
50%. Current production costs are approximately US$270 per ounce.

The existing regulations in Zimbabwe permits foreign investors to repatriate their capital
and recoup direct investment upon approval. TLQ has approval for 100% dividend
repayment for the Company's original $1.3 million investment in Jena. Trillion also has a
tax loss carry forward of $3.3 million. A conservative value for the Jena operation is
approximately $45 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Indarama Mine, Zimbabwe

Trillion owns 20% of this 15,000 ounces per year producer with an option to acquire the
remaining 80% for a payment of US$21 million. Indarama has a gold resource of 500,000
ounces but TLQ plans to spend US$4.5 million on exploration and development with the
goal of a major increase in reserves. The Globe and Phonix Mine, with past production of
4 million ounces is located near the Indarama properties.

In June 1996 Strathcona Mineral Services completed an independent audit of the
Indarama Mine Property, noting that it "does offer considerable opportunity to increase
the resource and reserve base. Strathcona have assisted Trillion in formulating a
two-year, comprehensive exploration program..." Indarama has the potential to become a
40,000-80,000 ounces per year producer within two years. Success at Indarama will make
Trillion a medium-sized African gold producer. Three drills are currently working the
property. Based on acquisition cost, a very conservative value for Indarama is
approximately $20 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Nickel Project, Ivory Coast

Trillion has a 15% carried interest until the completion by Falconbridge of a bankable
feasibility study. Falconbridge will spend US$7.8 million this year to conduct infill
drilling. This plant may produce 40,000 tonnes per year of nickel, generating C$30 million
cash flow annually to Trillion. Production is not likely to start till 2003. This project is an
important long term asset to Trillion. Based on a similar acquisition, a conservative
current value for the Nickel Project is approximately $20 million. This will increase
substantially upon a production decision in 1988.

Copper-Cobalt Project, Zaire

Trillion has signed a joint venture agreement with Gecamines, the state mining company,
to explore a 2.8 million square kilometre area in the Shaba Copper Arc., representing
one-fifth of the entire belt. In order to share the political risks presented in Zaire, Trillion
has farmed out 50% of the project to Melkior Resources ( MKR.m ) . This property
represents a potential long term asset to Trillion when political conditions improve. I am
not going to give any value to this property.

Zimbabwe Exploration Properties

Trillion has established its exploration office in Harare, Zimbabwe. The group is
responsible for 24 exploration programs in southern Africa. The company has one million
acres of gold exploration and 1.5 million acres of diamond exploration properties in
Zimbabwe.

The majority of the gold exploration projects are in their field work stage and I will
highlight them as they become more interesting. TLQ recently acquired an option to
purchase the Step Lively Mine which currently produces 5,000 ounces per year. This
project will most likely see some drilling in 1997. The gold projects are very grass roots
and thus should be valued at no more than $5 million.

Trillion and its 50% joint venture partner Nickelodeon Minerals ( NKM.v ) embarked on a
regional exploration program for diamonds in southwestern Zimbabwe and eastern
Botswana roughly three years ago. At Sansukwe, Zimbabwe, the company found and
bulk-sampled six kimberlites in 1996. A recently completed geophysical survey will lead
to an escalation of field activities in 1997. This area is very prospective for diamonds and
a systematic search for an economic pipe provides Trillion with a enormous wild card.
Venetia and Orapa, the second and fourth richest diamond mines in the world, are
located within the same geological region. Based on NKM, the diamond properties can
be conservatively valued at $5 million.

Kalahari Gold Project, Botswana

The Kalahari Gold Project is seeking a target geologically analogous to the
Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa which currently produces 25% of the world's gold.
Anglo American has been working in the area for about two years. They have made a
special arrangement with the government of Botswana and thus have not had to released
any results. They are believed to be drilling very deep holes near the Trillion border.

Trillion's 50% partner in the project, Bushman Resources ( BHM.v ) has drilled 60
shallow-holes to date in order to gather geological information. Deep drilling is planned
for May. This project is a long shot and requires very deep and expensive holes.
Bushman is picking up the cost of the program to earn its 50%. I am going to assign a
value of $5 million to this project.

Mozambique Gold Projects

Trillion is a 50% partner to Greenhope Resources ( GRH.m ) . GRH was recommended in
this letter in late February. Please refer to that issue for more details. Based on the
current value of GRH, the Mozambique properties are worth about $5. This could change
when drill results come out in June.

LOOK AT WHAT CAN BE BUILT OUT OF LEGOS

Totalling all the cash, investments, and properties as listed above, I come up with a
conservative estimated current worth of Trillion at approximately $208 million. At 28
million shares outstanding, the current market capitalisation of Trillion is $126 million.
The stock is trading below its breakup value. It is worth at least $7.00 without accounting
for success in any of their programs, and penalizing it a little bit for lack of focus.

YOU CAN ONLY BUILD PIECE BY PIECE

Accumulate Trillion below $4.50.

Another way undervalued Junior: Trillion

Look what you can buy for $5/16 now:

The following is from the June 1997 Resource Indicator. They stopped coverage at the end of Sept. 98 at US $0.25....perhaps a good sign that the bottom is in?


TRILLION RESOURCES LTD.

ACCUMULATE ( TLQ.t/$4.50 ) Suggested Investment Time Frame: 18 months
Associated Risk Level: Medium
Maximum Mental Loss: 20%

Symbol & Exchange: TLQ on the TSE
12 Month High/Low for Common Shares: $7.75/$4.15
Issued/Outstanding Shares: 27.5 million
Fully Diluted Shares: 31.5 million
Cash: $14 million plus $13 million in escrow
Contact: Michael Halvorson, Director
Phone #: 1-403-488-6789
Web Site: www.trillion-resources.com
E-Mail Address: trillion@ottawa.net

Declaration: I do not own any shares but maintain an option to accumulate after May 14,
1997 ( as per minimum one week declaration policy ) .

PLAYING WITH LEGO

Trillion is an investment in Africa. They have properties and joint ventures in Zimbabwe,
Botswana, Zaire, Mozambique, and the Ivory Coast. In addition to its exploration
properties, it also has one producing mine and options on two others. Within two years,
Trillion will be producing approximately 100,000 ounces of gold a year to become self
financing. By the year 2003, they will also have 40% interest in a producing Nickel mine
in partnership with Falconbridge.

Its liquid assets include $27 million cash ( with a burn rate of $700,000 per month, this
should last them more than two years ) , 1.5 million shares in Oliver Gold ( OGO.v )
currently worth about $3 million, CMC West Africa ( 25% direct interest ) is worth about
$40, and a 17% interest in Consolidated Mining Corporation ( South Africa ) , a
Johannesburg listed mining finance house, currently worth about $43 million. Few
Canadian companies can claim a management team with better technical qualifications or
well rounded experience than Trillion. Jens Hansen and Ron Netolitzky are the principals
of the company.

Trillion Resources has established itself as one of the leading exploration companies in
Africa and has an excellent mix of producing mines, advanced exploration projects, and
early stage exploration properties ( some with recommended Greenhope ) with significant
upside. Trillion's management team has an excellent track record for major discoveries, as
well as significant experience and contacts in many African countries. With
approximately 27.5 million shares issued, it is fairly valued and should be considered a
core holding.

THE LEGO PIECES

Jena Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

Trillion acquired its 50% interest in this mine approximately four years ago and operates
this small producer in partnership with ZMDC, the state mining company. Production will
total approximately 20,000 ounces in 1997. A $4 million exploration program is planned for
Jena with a goal of expanding additional reserves and consequently production by about
50%. Current production costs are approximately US$270 per ounce.

The existing regulations in Zimbabwe permits foreign investors to repatriate their capital
and recoup direct investment upon approval. TLQ has approval for 100% dividend
repayment for the Company's original $1.3 million investment in Jena. Trillion also has a
tax loss carry forward of $3.3 million. A conservative value for the Jena operation is
approximately $45 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Indarama Mine, Zimbabwe

Trillion owns 20% of this 15,000 ounces per year producer with an option to acquire the
remaining 80% for a payment of US$21 million. Indarama has a gold resource of 500,000
ounces but TLQ plans to spend US$4.5 million on exploration and development with the
goal of a major increase in reserves. The Globe and Phonix Mine, with past production of
4 million ounces is located near the Indarama properties.

In June 1996 Strathcona Mineral Services completed an independent audit of the
Indarama Mine Property, noting that it "does offer considerable opportunity to increase
the resource and reserve base. Strathcona have assisted Trillion in formulating a
two-year, comprehensive exploration program..." Indarama has the potential to become a
40,000-80,000 ounces per year producer within two years. Success at Indarama will make
Trillion a medium-sized African gold producer. Three drills are currently working the
property. Based on acquisition cost, a very conservative value for Indarama is
approximately $20 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Nickel Project, Ivory Coast

Trillion has a 15% carried interest until the completion by Falconbridge of a bankable
feasibility study. Falconbridge will spend US$7.8 million this year to conduct infill
drilling. This plant may produce 40,000 tonnes per year of nickel, generating C$30 million
cash flow annually to Trillion. Production is not likely to start till 2003. This project is an
important long term asset to Trillion. Based on a similar acquisition, a conservative
current value for the Nickel Project is approximately $20 million. This will increase
substantially upon a production decision in 1988.

Copper-Cobalt Project, Zaire

Trillion has signed a joint venture agreement with Gecamines, the state mining company,
to explore a 2.8 million square kilometre area in the Shaba Copper Arc., representing
one-fifth of the entire belt. In order to share the political risks presented in Zaire, Trillion
has farmed out 50% of the project to Melkior Resources ( MKR.m ) . This property
represents a potential long term asset to Trillion when political conditions improve. I am
not going to give any value to this property.

Zimbabwe Exploration Properties

Trillion has established its exploration office in Harare, Zimbabwe. The group is
responsible for 24 exploration programs in southern Africa. The company has one million
acres of gold exploration and 1.5 million acres of diamond exploration properties in
Zimbabwe.

The majority of the gold exploration projects are in their field work stage and I will
highlight them as they become more interesting. TLQ recently acquired an option to
purchase the Step Lively Mine which currently produces 5,000 ounces per year. This
project will most likely see some drilling in 1997. The gold projects are very grass roots
and thus should be valued at no more than $5 million.

Trillion and its 50% joint venture partner Nickelodeon Minerals ( NKM.v ) embarked on a
regional exploration program for diamonds in southwestern Zimbabwe and eastern
Botswana roughly three years ago. At Sansukwe, Zimbabwe, the company found and
bulk-sampled six kimberlites in 1996. A recently completed geophysical survey will lead
to an escalation of field activities in 1997. This area is very prospective for diamonds and
a systematic search for an economic pipe provides Trillion with a enormous wild card.
Venetia and Orapa, the second and fourth richest diamond mines in the world, are
located within the same geological region. Based on NKM, the diamond properties can
be conservatively valued at $5 million.

Kalahari Gold Project, Botswana

The Kalahari Gold Project is seeking a target geologically analogous to the
Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa which currently produces 25% of the world's gold.
Anglo American has been working in the area for about two years. They have made a
special arrangement with the government of Botswana and thus have not had to released
any results. They are believed to be drilling very deep holes near the Trillion border.

Trillion's 50% partner in the project, Bushman Resources ( BHM.v ) has drilled 60
shallow-holes to date in order to gather geological information. Deep drilling is planned
for May. This project is a long shot and requires very deep and expensive holes.
Bushman is picking up the cost of the program to earn its 50%. I am going to assign a
value of $5 million to this project.

Mozambique Gold Projects

Trillion is a 50% partner to Greenhope Resources ( GRH.m ) . GRH was recommended in
this letter in late February. Please refer to that issue for more details. Based on the
current value of GRH, the Mozambique properties are worth about $5. This could change
when drill results come out in June.

LOOK AT WHAT CAN BE BUILT OUT OF LEGOS

Totalling all the cash, investments, and properties as listed above, I come up with a
conservative estimated current worth of Trillion at approximately $208 million. At 28
million shares outstanding, the current market capitalisation of Trillion is $126 million.
The stock is trading below its breakup value. It is worth at least $7.00 without accounting
for success in any of their programs, and penalizing it a little bit for lack of focus.

YOU CAN ONLY BUILD PIECE BY PIECE

Accumulate Trillion below $4.50.

Another way undervalued Junior: Trillion

Look what you can buy for $5/16 now:

The following is from the June 1997 Resource Indicator. They stopped coverage at the end of Sept. 98 at US $0.25....perhaps a good sign that the bottom is in?


TRILLION RESOURCES LTD.

ACCUMULATE ( TLQ.t/$4.50 ) Suggested Investment Time Frame: 18 months
Associated Risk Level: Medium
Maximum Mental Loss: 20%

Symbol & Exchange: TLQ on the TSE
12 Month High/Low for Common Shares: $7.75/$4.15
Issued/Outstanding Shares: 27.5 million
Fully Diluted Shares: 31.5 million
Cash: $14 million plus $13 million in escrow
Contact: Michael Halvorson, Director
Phone #: 1-403-488-6789
Web Site: www.trillion-resources.com
E-Mail Address: trillion@ottawa.net

Declaration: I do not own any shares but maintain an option to accumulate after May 14,
1997 ( as per minimum one week declaration policy ) .

PLAYING WITH LEGO

Trillion is an investment in Africa. They have properties and joint ventures in Zimbabwe,
Botswana, Zaire, Mozambique, and the Ivory Coast. In addition to its exploration
properties, it also has one producing mine and options on two others. Within two years,
Trillion will be producing approximately 100,000 ounces of gold a year to become self
financing. By the year 2003, they will also have 40% interest in a producing Nickel mine
in partnership with Falconbridge.

Its liquid assets include $27 million cash ( with a burn rate of $700,000 per month, this
should last them more than two years ) , 1.5 million shares in Oliver Gold ( OGO.v )
currently worth about $3 million, CMC West Africa ( 25% direct interest ) is worth about
$40, and a 17% interest in Consolidated Mining Corporation ( South Africa ) , a
Johannesburg listed mining finance house, currently worth about $43 million. Few
Canadian companies can claim a management team with better technical qualifications or
well rounded experience than Trillion. Jens Hansen and Ron Netolitzky are the principals
of the company.

Trillion Resources has established itself as one of the leading exploration companies in
Africa and has an excellent mix of producing mines, advanced exploration projects, and
early stage exploration properties ( some with recommended Greenhope ) with significant
upside. Trillion's management team has an excellent track record for major discoveries, as
well as significant experience and contacts in many African countries. With
approximately 27.5 million shares issued, it is fairly valued and should be considered a
core holding.

THE LEGO PIECES

Jena Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

Trillion acquired its 50% interest in this mine approximately four years ago and operates
this small producer in partnership with ZMDC, the state mining company. Production will
total approximately 20,000 ounces in 1997. A $4 million exploration program is planned for
Jena with a goal of expanding additional reserves and consequently production by about
50%. Current production costs are approximately US$270 per ounce.

The existing regulations in Zimbabwe permits foreign investors to repatriate their capital
and recoup direct investment upon approval. TLQ has approval for 100% dividend
repayment for the Company's original $1.3 million investment in Jena. Trillion also has a
tax loss carry forward of $3.3 million. A conservative value for the Jena operation is
approximately $45 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Indarama Mine, Zimbabwe

Trillion owns 20% of this 15,000 ounces per year producer with an option to acquire the
remaining 80% for a payment of US$21 million. Indarama has a gold resource of 500,000
ounces but TLQ plans to spend US$4.5 million on exploration and development with the
goal of a major increase in reserves. The Globe and Phonix Mine, with past production of
4 million ounces is located near the Indarama properties.

In June 1996 Strathcona Mineral Services completed an independent audit of the
Indarama Mine Property, noting that it "does offer considerable opportunity to increase
the resource and reserve base. Strathcona have assisted Trillion in formulating a
two-year, comprehensive exploration program..." Indarama has the potential to become a
40,000-80,000 ounces per year producer within two years. Success at Indarama will make
Trillion a medium-sized African gold producer. Three drills are currently working the
property. Based on acquisition cost, a very conservative value for Indarama is
approximately $20 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Nickel Project, Ivory Coast

Trillion has a 15% carried interest until the completion by Falconbridge of a bankable
feasibility study. Falconbridge will spend US$7.8 million this year to conduct infill
drilling. This plant may produce 40,000 tonnes per year of nickel, generating C$30 million
cash flow annually to Trillion. Production is not likely to start till 2003. This project is an
important long term asset to Trillion. Based on a similar acquisition, a conservative
current value for the Nickel Project is approximately $20 million. This will increase
substantially upon a production decision in 1988.

Copper-Cobalt Project, Zaire

Trillion has signed a joint venture agreement with Gecamines, the state mining company,
to explore a 2.8 million square kilometre area in the Shaba Copper Arc., representing
one-fifth of the entire belt. In order to share the political risks presented in Zaire, Trillion
has farmed out 50% of the project to Melkior Resources ( MKR.m ) . This property
represents a potential long term asset to Trillion when political conditions improve. I am
not going to give any value to this property.

Zimbabwe Exploration Properties

Trillion has established its exploration office in Harare, Zimbabwe. The group is
responsible for 24 exploration programs in southern Africa. The company has one million
acres of gold exploration and 1.5 million acres of diamond exploration properties in
Zimbabwe.

The majority of the gold exploration projects are in their field work stage and I will
highlight them as they become more interesting. TLQ recently acquired an option to
purchase the Step Lively Mine which currently produces 5,000 ounces per year. This
project will most likely see some drilling in 1997. The gold projects are very grass roots
and thus should be valued at no more than $5 million.

Trillion and its 50% joint venture partner Nickelodeon Minerals ( NKM.v ) embarked on a
regional exploration program for diamonds in southwestern Zimbabwe and eastern
Botswana roughly three years ago. At Sansukwe, Zimbabwe, the company found and
bulk-sampled six kimberlites in 1996. A recently completed geophysical survey will lead
to an escalation of field activities in 1997. This area is very prospective for diamonds and
a systematic search for an economic pipe provides Trillion with a enormous wild card.
Venetia and Orapa, the second and fourth richest diamond mines in the world, are
located within the same geological region. Based on NKM, the diamond properties can
be conservatively valued at $5 million.

Kalahari Gold Project, Botswana

The Kalahari Gold Project is seeking a target geologically analogous to the
Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa which currently produces 25% of the world's gold.
Anglo American has been working in the area for about two years. They have made a
special arrangement with the government of Botswana and thus have not had to released
any results. They are believed to be drilling very deep holes near the Trillion border.

Trillion's 50% partner in the project, Bushman Resources ( BHM.v ) has drilled 60
shallow-holes to date in order to gather geological information. Deep drilling is planned
for May. This project is a long shot and requires very deep and expensive holes.
Bushman is picking up the cost of the program to earn its 50%. I am going to assign a
value of $5 million to this project.

Mozambique Gold Projects

Trillion is a 50% partner to Greenhope Resources ( GRH.m ) . GRH was recommended in
this letter in late February. Please refer to that issue for more details. Based on the
current value of GRH, the Mozambique properties are worth about $5. This could change
when drill results come out in June.

LOOK AT WHAT CAN BE BUILT OUT OF LEGOS

Totalling all the cash, investments, and properties as listed above, I come up with a
conservative estimated current worth of Trillion at approximately $208 million. At 28
million shares outstanding, the current market capitalisation of Trillion is $126 million.
The stock is trading below its breakup value. It is worth at least $7.00 without accounting
for success in any of their programs, and penalizing it a little bit for lack of focus.

YOU CAN ONLY BUILD PIECE BY PIECE

Accumulate Trillion below $4.50.

Another way undervalued Junior: Trillion

Look what you can buy for $5/16 now:

The following is from the June 1997 Resource Indicator. They stopped coverage at the end of Sept. 98 at US $0.25....perhaps a good sign that the bottom is in?


TRILLION RESOURCES LTD.

ACCUMULATE ( TLQ.t/$4.50 ) Suggested Investment Time Frame: 18 months
Associated Risk Level: Medium
Maximum Mental Loss: 20%

Symbol & Exchange: TLQ on the TSE
12 Month High/Low for Common Shares: $7.75/$4.15
Issued/Outstanding Shares: 27.5 million
Fully Diluted Shares: 31.5 million
Cash: $14 million plus $13 million in escrow
Contact: Michael Halvorson, Director
Phone #: 1-403-488-6789
Web Site: www.trillion-resources.com
E-Mail Address: trillion@ottawa.net

Declaration: I do not own any shares but maintain an option to accumulate after May 14,
1997 ( as per minimum one week declaration policy ) .

PLAYING WITH LEGO

Trillion is an investment in Africa. They have properties and joint ventures in Zimbabwe,
Botswana, Zaire, Mozambique, and the Ivory Coast. In addition to its exploration
properties, it also has one producing mine and options on two others. Within two years,
Trillion will be producing approximately 100,000 ounces of gold a year to become self
financing. By the year 2003, they will also have 40% interest in a producing Nickel mine
in partnership with Falconbridge.

Its liquid assets include $27 million cash ( with a burn rate of $700,000 per month, this
should last them more than two years ) , 1.5 million shares in Oliver Gold ( OGO.v )
currently worth about $3 million, CMC West Africa ( 25% direct interest ) is worth about
$40, and a 17% interest in Consolidated Mining Corporation ( South Africa ) , a
Johannesburg listed mining finance house, currently worth about $43 million. Few
Canadian companies can claim a management team with better technical qualifications or
well rounded experience than Trillion. Jens Hansen and Ron Netolitzky are the principals
of the company.

Trillion Resources has established itself as one of the leading exploration companies in
Africa and has an excellent mix of producing mines, advanced exploration projects, and
early stage exploration properties ( some with recommended Greenhope ) with significant
upside. Trillion's management team has an excellent track record for major discoveries, as
well as significant experience and contacts in many African countries. With
approximately 27.5 million shares issued, it is fairly valued and should be considered a
core holding.

THE LEGO PIECES

Jena Gold Mine in Zimbabwe

Trillion acquired its 50% interest in this mine approximately four years ago and operates
this small producer in partnership with ZMDC, the state mining company. Production will
total approximately 20,000 ounces in 1997. A $4 million exploration program is planned for
Jena with a goal of expanding additional reserves and consequently production by about
50%. Current production costs are approximately US$270 per ounce.

The existing regulations in Zimbabwe permits foreign investors to repatriate their capital
and recoup direct investment upon approval. TLQ has approval for 100% dividend
repayment for the Company's original $1.3 million investment in Jena. Trillion also has a
tax loss carry forward of $3.3 million. A conservative value for the Jena operation is
approximately $45 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Indarama Mine, Zimbabwe

Trillion owns 20% of this 15,000 ounces per year producer with an option to acquire the
remaining 80% for a payment of US$21 million. Indarama has a gold resource of 500,000
ounces but TLQ plans to spend US$4.5 million on exploration and development with the
goal of a major increase in reserves. The Globe and Phonix Mine, with past production of
4 million ounces is located near the Indarama properties.

In June 1996 Strathcona Mineral Services completed an independent audit of the
Indarama Mine Property, noting that it "does offer considerable opportunity to increase
the resource and reserve base. Strathcona have assisted Trillion in formulating a
two-year, comprehensive exploration program..." Indarama has the potential to become a
40,000-80,000 ounces per year producer within two years. Success at Indarama will make
Trillion a medium-sized African gold producer. Three drills are currently working the
property. Based on acquisition cost, a very conservative value for Indarama is
approximately $20 million without allocating any value for an increase in reserves.

Nickel Project, Ivory Coast

Trillion has a 15% carried interest until the completion by Falconbridge of a bankable
feasibility study. Falconbridge will spend US$7.8 million this year to conduct infill
drilling. This plant may produce 40,000 tonnes per year of nickel, generating C$30 million
cash flow annually to Trillion. Production is not likely to start till 2003. This project is an
important long term asset to Trillion. Based on a similar acquisition, a conservative
current value for the Nickel Project is approximately $20 million. This will increase
substantially upon a production decision in 1988.

Copper-Cobalt Project, Zaire

Trillion has signed a joint venture agreement with Gecamines, the state mining company,
to explore a 2.8 million square kilometre area in the Shaba Copper Arc., representing
one-fifth of the entire belt. In order to share the political risks presented in Zaire, Trillion
has farmed out 50% of the project to Melkior Resources ( MKR.m ) . This property
represents a potential long term asset to Trillion when political conditions improve. I am
not going to give any value to this property.

Zimbabwe Exploration Properties

Trillion has established its exploration office in Harare, Zimbabwe. The group is
responsible for 24 exploration programs in southern Africa. The company has one million
acres of gold exploration and 1.5 million acres of diamond exploration properties in
Zimbabwe.

The majority of the gold exploration projects are in their field work stage and I will
highlight them as they become more interesting. TLQ recently acquired an option to
purchase the Step Lively Mine which currently produces 5,000 ounces per year. This
project will most likely see some drilling in 1997. The gold projects are very grass roots
and thus should be valued at no more than $5 million.

Trillion and its 50% joint venture partner Nickelodeon Minerals ( NKM.v ) embarked on a
regional exploration program for diamonds in southwestern Zimbabwe and eastern
Botswana roughly three years ago. At Sansukwe, Zimbabwe, the company found and
bulk-sampled six kimberlites in 1996. A recently completed geophysical survey will lead
to an escalation of field activities in 1997. This area is very prospective for diamonds and
a systematic search for an economic pipe provides Trillion with a enormous wild card.
Venetia and Orapa, the second and fourth richest diamond mines in the world, are
located within the same geological region. Based on NKM, the diamond properties can
be conservatively valued at $5 million.

Kalahari Gold Project, Botswana

The Kalahari Gold Project is seeking a target geologically analogous to the
Witwatersrand Basin of South Africa which currently produces 25% of the world's gold.
Anglo American has been working in the area for about two years. They have made a
special arrangement with the government of Botswana and thus have not had to released
any results. They are believed to be drilling very deep holes near the Trillion border.

Trillion's 50% partner in the project, Bushman Resources ( BHM.v ) has drilled 60
shallow-holes to date in order to gather geological information. Deep drilling is planned
for May. This project is a long shot and requires very deep and expensive holes.
Bushman is picking up the cost of the program to earn its 50%. I am going to assign a
value of $5 million to this project.

Mozambique Gold Projects

Trillion is a 50% partner to Greenhope Resources ( GRH.m ) . GRH was recommended in
this letter in late February. Please refer to that issue for more details. Based on the
current value of GRH, the Mozambique properties are worth about $5. This could change
when drill results come out in June.

LOOK AT WHAT CAN BE BUILT OUT OF LEGOS

Totalling all the cash, investments, and properties as listed above, I come up with a
conservative estimated current worth of Trillion at approximately $208 million. At 28
million shares outstanding, the current market capitalisation of Trillion is $126 million.
The stock is trading below its breakup value. It is worth at least $7.00 without accounting
for success in any of their programs, and penalizing it a little bit for lack of focus.

YOU CAN ONLY BUILD PIECE BY PIECE

Accumulate Trillion below $4.50.

You posted,
"I read a post days ago suggesting that keeping the posting window open on Kitco might cause server lag; I submit to you that it cannot. The only things that cause the server to work ( and thus get bogged down ) are requesting files ( loading pages ) and creating new posts."

I would think keeping the posting window open so that one can create long posts is the same as creating new posts and loading pages and posts etc. ...... whatever.

HighRise

Trying to catch a whiff of the consensus as to what
tomorrow's action might bring. I've loaded up all my
delicate eggs ( and some borrowed ones, too ) and placed
them ALL into this ONE GOLDEN basket ( a true contrarian ) .
I'm afraid all the shoving and heaving in the marketplace of late
may cause the basket contents to crack but I'm still in the race
and going for the 'gold'.

The yellow metal keeps tiptoeing into the 300 camp only to be
bullied away. Kind of like a huge tug-of-war where the
long faithfuls ( goldbugs ) are pulling blindfolded
without knowing the number and scope of their opponents
( manipulators ) heaving in the opposite direction.

In any case, I'm as aware as the next goldbug that gold
and silver will move to their own rhythms and in their
own time. However, it does boggle the mind, when each
scenario is being played out: a ) world markets are churning and
steadily declining ( better this way than out-and-out
crash, obviously ) ; b ) long bonds in nervous hands
beginning to sell off ( overall lack of confidence in the
greenback and more likely than not - Japanese selloff ) ;
c ) failure of IMF and G7 govts to come up with
solid plan of action; d ) 3rd quarter profits looking
gloomy and withered; e ) the probability of many more
hedge fund fiascos pending where LTCM left off ;
f ) lack of solid leadership ( discussing bedroom rather
than boardroom politics ) ;
g ) the precipitous recent decline in US dollar, etc. etc.

All have failed thus far to jolt the gold bear from his
18-year slumber. ( ok, maybe he's awake, but for now still
in a stupor ) .

Just a thought on some of the latest action. Now that
Americans are moving out of the long bond and into short-term
treasuries, it's just a matter of time that they
recognize ( down the road ) that the markets ain't comin'
back, and the US buck continues to implode, they'll
eventually come in from the sidelines and join the gold
bandwagon ( wishful thinking? ) As for non-Americans, if
I put myself in their position, perhaps I'd wait out the
US$ decline until it's somewhat stabilized, and
THEN jump into gold and gold stocks with both feet. Even
though from last week to this, in terms of their DM's and
FF's and SF's etc., gold is looking awfully cheap, their
common sense must be telling them to hold off for the US $ to
plateau somewhat before committing to a gold investment.
Only THEN shall we see some real fireworks IMV ( inexperienced )
and HO ( humble opinion ) .

Just my 2-penny contribution, to a forum that offers
many a profound, cheerful and comforting slice of wisdom
and analysis when frayed nerves are hard to deal with in
this most tenuous and enervating gold/silver launch.

Many thanks to all for your wonderful and humorous posts!

GOLD TO THE MOON, ALICE!

I am not sure if this is new, or I just didnt notice it before, but Yahoo have Gold, Silver and Platinum listed as 'currencies' on their currency converter page. This is very useful as you can convert the gold price to any local currency.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=USD

No apoligies needed, I enjoy your posts, read and learn is what I do in this august forum.

Now about that 'Hold-em', now there is game, used to play until I believe it was 'Anaconda' that rolled through the card houses and seem to shut every other game down. You still play? What are they playin?

Yup

Just like this posts
Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 22:29
THC__A ( Trillion Res. ) ID#367411:
Date: Thu Oct 08 1998 22:29
THC__A ( Trillion Res. ) ID#367411:


HighRise

SLOW! SLOW!

10/08 DPA Daily Summary
DECISION POINT ALERT DAILY SUMMARY
Thursday 10/8/98

TODAY'S MARKET COMMENTS: Just before I began to write this commentary a
subscriber sent me mail asking what I thought was going on with this market,
particularly this constant deep selling intraday followed by an easing and a
close that make it look like nothing much has happened. Every day there is a
different "cover story", like today's was that the selling was caused by the
losses being experienced by the Dollar, with the recovery being the relief
that the Dollar successfully stood its
ground. But my best guess is that there is serious government intervention
taking place to support the Dollar and to keep the blue chip averages from
breaching their August lows.

The fighting is intense and valiant, but the bulls keep losing a little more
ground each day. The bulls are stopping the selling at the important support
lines, but the bears are holding more of the territory traversed each day. The
market index showing the most "strength" is the Dow, but it seems reasonable
that these 30 stocks need to capitulate before the bottom is in.

Breadth is extremely negative and the number of New Lows expanded to a level
very near those near the August lows. The McClellan Oscillator is deeply
oversold, indicating ( good news ) that a reaction rally is likely, but ( bad
news ) there is also the probability that the Oscillator is beginning another
Complex Bottom formation, which should take another 8 to 12 weeks to work
through as the market continues to decline.

If we do get a rally in a day or two, I would not be inclined to look at it as
anything more than a temporary event. Everyone has been fixating on a double
bottom conclusion to the bear market, but a triple bottom is not out of the
question. Certainly I don't see any magical fix to what ails this market.

Nikkei update . . . it rallied strongly on Wednesday, a snapback rally to
overhead resistance. On Thursday it gave it all back. Still expecting lower.

--Carl Swenlin

October 8, 1998 New York Times
World Finance Meeting Ends With No Grand Strategy but Many Ideas

By DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON -- The world's finance ministers and central bankers
ended five days of debate Wednesday with nothing approaching a
strategy to lift the global markets out of their downward spiral, but with
a plethora of new ideas that some officials insisted would ultimately bear fruit.

All week the mood was so pessimistic that one European finance minister left
Washington insisting, "I've had more fun at funerals."

At times the officials politely sparred with President Clinton and Michel
Camdessus, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund. They argued
over which European countries should cut interest rates and how much, and
whether too much austerity imposed by the West would lead to the breakup of
Russia or more bloodshed in Indonesia.

But they agreed repeatedly and publicly that the chief villain in this drama is Japan,
with a supporting cast of avaricious hedge fund managers and currency speculators.

Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda, the Thai finance minister, said "not much" had been
accomplished. He was treated as something of a cult hero because his country's
economy has hit bottom and now seems to be crawling back. "I'm afraid the
markets will be disappointed," he said.

Finance Minister Yannos Papantoniou of Greece agreed with the sentiment,
bemoaning "the lack of clear political will to move in any direction."

Those who did not expect much progress nonetheless said they saw glimmers of
hope. Weary from days of meetings and nights of glittering receptions that seemed
oddly out of sync with the mood of gloom, they talked about Britain's proposal to
establish what would amount to a Ministry of the Global Economy -- a standing
committee on global financial regulation that would try to get the International
Monetary Fund, financial regulators and private industry marching in a single
direction.

Many said the world now understood the dangers of financial secrecy, though they
were bickering about just what kind of closely held data countries and financial
institutions should publish.

A few said President Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, in confidential
asides, had given assurances that they would pull $18 billion for the IMF out of
Congress, an amount they have requested.

What was missing was a parting message: that in tough times a strategy was
emerging. "What this whole thing is about is finding a catalyst that will restore
confidence," said John R.H. Bond, the group chairman of HSBC Holdings PLC,
whose Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank has done business in Asia for a century.
"But in this crisis there are so many players, so many different agendas, that turning
it around will be very, very difficult."

In an interview Wednesday, Rubin suggested that anyone who thought a meeting of
182 countries would come to hard and fast conclusions did not have realistic
expectations. "It was never going to come out with some highly momentous
individual proposal," he insisted. "The question was, would it energize international
action and a coalescence of views. And I think it unquestionably did.

"There are no magic wands," he added. "These problems developed over many
years, and it will take time to work them through."

Rubin also made the case that there was now a consensus that there needed to be
"some private sector involvement" in packages to aid affected countries -- financial
code words meaning that big banks, investment houses and hedge funds that help
drive countries to the brink ought to pay to clean up the mess.

One of the biggest accomplishments, he said, was that "everyone came out of the
G-7 meeting with a shared sense of concern." He was referring to the huge gap
between European and American views of the severity of the global downturn.

Some members of the Group of Seven leading industrial countries, France and
Germany in particular, argued until last week that Clinton's repeated references to
the "greatest financial challenges in a half-century" were overdramatizing the
problem.

A senior European diplomat agreed with Rubin on Wednesday, saying his
delegation of officials and bankers had "left a lot more depressed than they arrived."

Finance ministers spent part of the week trying to assess the president's political
difficulties. Over breakfasts and lunches, ministers would ask reporters to put away
their notebooks and then pepper them with questions about whether Clinton would
survive the impeachment inquiry that was gathering steam two miles away.

France proposed giving developing countries and the European Union more
authority over the monetary fund, a plan that seemed to be aimed at diminishing
America's near domination of the institution.

Rubin politely dismissed the French plan with the suggestion that it should be
studied at length -- the longer the better, he seemed to be saying -- but on Tuesday,
Camdessus endorsed it, saying he offered his "full support of the French
suggestion."

President Clinton's suggestion on Friday that the IMF change its strategy and
develop a way to inoculate fundamentally healthy countries from economic
contagion with pre-emptive aid packages led to public and private suggestions that it
was time for Washington to come up with more cash before offering ideas on how
to spend it. It seemed likely that Clinton's idea would eventually be accepted, but a
top official of the monetary fund, Jack Boorman, said figuring out how it would
work would take several months.

Most of the other talk about creating a "new international financial architecture"
involved plans that most of those attending said would require years to be enacted.

The first may be new rules on what the financial community calls "transparency" --
requirements that countries divulge far more information about their finances to
investors, making it harder to hide evidence of imminent economic disaster. Still,
that is no guarantee. Investors ignored a good deal of data about impending trouble
in Thailand and South Korea.

The other key suggestions to emerge from these meetings will take even longer.
Establishing rules for common financial accounting rules and for renegotiating bad
debts when countries and their banks cannot pay may make sense, but they impinge
on the sovereignty of individual nations.

Giving broader powers to the IMF to cajole, and sometimes order, countries to
lower their budget deficits or raise their taxes also would impinge on their
sovereignty.

"This is the basic dilemma of globalization," Papantoniou said. "Where do you
draw the line between intervention and nonintervention?"