So why is Kitco slow now @ 12:05 AM on a Saturday?

There hasn't been a post for a while.

HighRise

Waiting now for this to Post!

Now it's fast?

HighRise

Cause gold dropped when we all thought it was going up!

It's quick now. You know, it's weird, I've noticed that Kitco is ALWAYS slow for like 15 minutes before mid-night, don't ask me why. Check it out Saturday night at around mid-night, it'll be slow again. Dunno why, and it clears up at about 12:15 in the morning.

**Warning** Is Martin A starting to resort to dirty tricks & rumors?

From golden eagle Forum today:

" ( AG-Man ) Oct 09, 23:47 I have been conversing with Martin Armstrong at PEI about silver. He raised some interesting points which I wonder if others can verify. Firstly, that the regulators in the UK are planning to introduce forward silver contracts on the LME later this year ( and forcing all the UK silver depositories to report their stocks, which MA believes are huge ) . Secondly, that there are 500 mill ozs of silver parked at Zurich airport in a warehouse, owned by some arabs ( for a long time, I assume ) . Appreciate anyone's thoughts\comment on this."

Any thought on how to respond?

The battle is starting to heat up!

THC

I think it's a sign of the tribulations of the last days; "And lo, the angel broke the final seal, and the servers were made slow, and the truth was concealed from their screens, and all the drives were useless, and great cry went up.."

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/oct9_gold.html

I have been timed out 2 times waiting for the "Comments" page to appear. This after a major wait trying to get to the Kitco site at 12:30 am in eastern N America. It ain't the long text--short text or the length of posts--its the site. BART can fix it and said he is improving it--the rest of us can use it.

That does it. I've had enough! I hereby pledge $100 US$ to Kitco to get this thing running right. Bart, the check will be in the mail this Tuesday, the day after Discovery Day ( "Columbus Day" is insensitive and politically incorrect ) . We got elections coming up and a new Euro currency on the launching pad. Moreover, there are full moons lunar eclipses, and Leonid meteor storms on the horizon! I want reliable access to Kitco during the coming trials,tribulations, and disappointing quarterly earnings. Am willing to put up a few US$ to have it. Ladies and Gentlemen, let's do it!

I just read some articles by Ed Yardeni ( www.yardeni.com ) on Y2K. It is even more disturbing than expected. Read especially "Greanspan on Y2K". These files are open to the public, can be downloaded and viewed using adobe acrobat.

As a short summary: there is not the slightest chance that Y2K will not cause serious disruptions. To mention just one: the fed is already printing more currency in antcipation of larger demand ( read bank runs ) .

200 billion USD will be kept at ready instead of 150 billion as usual. Yardeni believes this will not be enough. If every household in the US wants to withdraw only 1000 USD, this makes 100 billion. But just how long can you make it onn 1000 USD?

In other documents the readiness of banks and coroporations is examined and fount to be wanting more particularly in parts of the world which have more immediately pressing problems now than Y2K ( which is: a substantial part of our world ) . The problem of the economic food chain is mentioned ( interdependence and hyrarchical dependence on suppliers ) . Here an anectode: An entire Ford plant in Germany had to be idled because a supplier was not delivering the door locks.

Combine this with the importance of psychology in supporting the stock market and the intensifying doubts and anxiety of the investing public as the millenium arrives and we can expect the greatest short selling opportunity we will ever get. I personally believe the S&P 500 will be marked down to 400. Needless to say: every substantial short position will also induce disquietude and anxiety.

I think your last post was the record! then you had the huevos to put the link at the end! Damn cuz! I'm still giggling! I love Kitco.

oh and gold too!!

CC ..
Old son .. you believe what you like and buy what you
want .. I surely could not care less.
But you are very wrong .. cash costs are obviously NOT
the "name of the game" ( whatever that means ) .
Total costs are EVERYTHING. "cash costs" are merely
an accounting device to split incremental operating
costs out of total cost ( partly for tax reasons ) ..
To maintain its level of gold prodution, a company
like ABX has to spend roughly 160 $/per oz of gold
produced in Capital ( or fixed ) form .. and another say
150 $/oz in "cash costs" form.. for a total of about
310$/oz ( these numbers are rough but should serve for
purpose of explanation ) ..
In contrast .. a company like Harmony has cash costs
of about 240$/oz and capital costs of maybe 20 $/oz.
for a total of say 260 $/oz.
Thus at any given level of gold price, harmony has
a competitive advantage over ABX of about 50$/oz..
On a capitalization basis .. ABX reserves cost about
100 $/oz and harmony's maybe 10 $/oz .. yet harmony
makes a profit at a 300$ gold price on its resources
and ABX would NOT do so without hedging..
I have no doubt that schools like Harvard may teach
that the annual capital expediture required to maintain a
company's position in an industry is in some way NOT
a cost of doing business. But then Harvard probably
gave us many of the boys that built LTC... To me, such
an idea is profoundly absurd.
But not for me to discourage .. buy lots of ABX ..
enjoy .. learn.. and anyway .. ritter glasshopper..
every man must find his own way to TRUTH and ENLIGHTENMENT
.. plus I dont get paid for this.
By the way .. the name of the GAME is CRICKET.

In a deflation, Massa Cards are pushing on a string. The problem with Expiring money is finding people who will accept it. The surefire solution to force spending: Burn down their houses.

under any jurisdiction.

Angst over Euro

"NEW YORK, Wednesday, September 23, 1998 -- The International Swaps and Derivatives Association ( ISDA ) called attention to September 30 as the cut-off date to sign its EMU Protocol, which amends existing derivatives contracts between signatories in anticipation of the replacement of the national currencies of EMU countries by the euro. Users of privately negotiated derivatives should determine their need to amend existing master agreements and act promptly, the association urged."

There was quite a bit of heavy breathing over this little bombshell. Merill was dragging its heels, as was GS ( I think it was GS ) . Some salient facts about what Euro means to dollar denominated 'stuff' is beginning to sink in. A little difficult to feel to sorry for them; the ISDA held a big meeting for the New York players to explain the whole thingy--twenty not senior people straggled in.

European houses have, quite naturally, been aware for quite some time
and planned accordingly. Well, as Mayer said, risk passes into weaker hands. Happily Kitco hands hold gold. {:- ) )

To all ..
The more I think of it .. the boys up at Harmony
seem to have come up with something .. over the last
four years .. they have increased resources from
20 million oz to about 105 million .. and they didnt
spend or borrow any money.!!
They simply issued stock which was then either held
or cashed on the JSE. Everyone was Happy to take the
Harmony stock "money" since it was BACKED by GOLD.
Shareholders are happy because the new stock
that was issued brings new gold resources to the
company at low cost.

The axiom "Risk passes to weaker hands" and the condition that government and its licensees are the lenders of last resort seem mutually contradictory. The axiom seems also refuted by the fact of the Loan Shark Gangsters who will accept risky clients refused by banksters, but are not weak by reputation.

you may want to take a look...

Goldman's International Bank didn't sign, nor did Merrill ( nor did MacDonald's for that matter ) 
To see who did and who didn't--
( 1 ) ISDA EMU PROTOCOL RESPONSE TOPS 1,100 AS PERIOD FOR ACCEPTANCE CLOSES [press release]
http://www.isda.org/a51098_1.html
( 2 ) The actual list of signers
http://www.isda.org/h1.html

In the same spirit in which the federal concluded in the past "F*ck the Constitution; we need the money", it is now saying "F*ck the Constitution; Disarm yourself or be murdered."

You are quite correct. But you are one who uses language to clarify and instruct. They do not.

for Mozel ..
The second follows logically from the
first. Collection costs are greatly reduced
if the subject is unarmed.

An FT story had it that the NY Fed called in the banks on the LTCM 'problem', put them in a room and didn't let them out till they had coughed up the necessary. David Rockefeller is said to have done much the same over the Herstatt Situation, with the additional fillip that he pledged his personal fortune as security behind the settlements.
Contrast that to G-7.

Difficult to think of a country, let alone an individual, with wealth sufficient to assuage counterparty angst in this go round.

They have run THEMSELVES to ground. Their only salvation is public willingness to save good old Tinkerbelle.
So. We listen for the sound of applause.
Or the sound of an angry crowd heading for the bastille.

For G-7 there is NO configuration solution. The only solution to the systemic failure circling the periphery like some demented chopper, is the belief structure of the participants in the system. And they are finding belief, and trust, more difficult with every pass.

Goodnight all. Tomorrow, with any luck at all, is another day. {:- )

On further reflection, perhaps you surrendered the point too easily.

Risk should pass into weaker hands. And will where and when the actors are free of coercive force and fraud. Those who are not compelled by circumstance to take a greater risk will not. Desperate men hire on to work with dynamite even though the wage is high.

This is why setting up government and its licensees as lenders of last resort violates a law of nature. Whenever you try to fool Mother Nature, you create a moral hazard. The axiom "Risk passes into weaker hands" assumes nobody is fooling with Mother Nature. It's an example of one of those cultural assumptions I mentioned in a post yesterday about the Orient and the Occident.

Loan Sharks like sellers who cannot go to the law to collect unpaid bills are actually weaker hands. Private violence is an uncertain and risky method for redress of greivance to private right. Cultivation of a terrible reputation is to compensate for an inherently weak position.

If so much silver sits in London and Zurich while your precious flow of funds theory has detached itself from its connection to dollar power; why not ask your cohorts Greenspan and Rubin to buy this silver up and place a fair value on it as circulating currency and get those flow of funds to favor "your client's" beloved dollar. All that Al and Bobby have to do is make silver money and all your faithful followers will tend to kiss you well above you feet.
While I have no love for any of the big money boys WB or GS in my eyes you're as scum bag in comparision.

When Clinton was Governor of Arkansas, he allowed a man to be put to death who was so mentally deficient as to have no understanding whatsoever of what was happening. It was akin to killing a cow as punishment for stepping on somebody's foot.

So, the evidence is that he is more cold blooded than you imagine.

It would be interesting to know if your statement that Congressmen fear him for their lives is anything more than your surmise.

When they hear testimony that federal agents are deploying and operating under "Rules of Engagement", people ought to understand the government is on a war footing against them. But, they don't. Not consciously yet anyway.

Were you guys heavily short Gold in early 1985, when Gold was at $280? There were a few Kitco posts which claimed this. Look, everybody makes mistakes. Just don't want folks to think ANYONE is infallible.

When the risk is revealed as having been great the hand holding it is revealed as now being weak.

For Mozel ..
You obviously studied under La Rochefoucauld ..
some here were under Pangloss.
I actually studied under de Sade at night school
in Paris.

Perhaps we need to take countermeasures against Mr. A's short silver raid.

What would happen if all Kitco bulls around the world took out long futures contracts on the same day, right around a major support point for silver??

Big time squeeze for Mr. A?

That would be fun......

THC

If so much silver sits in London and Zurich while your
precious flow of funds theory has detached itself from
its connection to dollar power; why not ask your cohorts
Greenspan and Rubin to buy this silver up and place a
fair value on it as circulating currency and get those
flow of funds to favor "your client's" beloved dollar.
All that Al and Bobby have to do is make silver money
and all your faithful followers ( WHO ARE NOT SHORT SILVER ) will tend to kiss you WHERE THE SUN DOESN'T SHINE.
While I have no love for any of the big money boys WB or GS in my eyes you're as scum bag in comparision.

I would like you to come to Kitco and join in the give and take. If your ideas are well founded, then you can educate us. Any flawed arguments will be dissected in a heartbeat.

Quite a programme.

Mozel ..
But I hear Francois was a real stand up guy..

if so...was it coinage or bars??

crusty

Well I hope you're familiar with Peter Weiss' ( ? ) play, later film:

"The assasination of Marat, as portrayed by the inmates of Charancout Lunatic Asylum, under the direction of the Marquis de Sade.."

did I get it right?

but de Sade is such a bore as a writer, Justine, Juliet are so turgid.

Perhaps they missed in translation, there are two translations of the Story of O, one is superior, the other is trash.


de Salty

Really the reason countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia have problems are due to foreign-denominated debt.

When these countries' govts, businesses or individuals take out loans denominated in Dollars, then they must come up with interest in Dollars

This Usury scam keeps Lesser Developed Countries in a semi-state of servitude to the money-lenders who lend in Dollars.

For a somewhat hypothetical example, say the mexican govt borrows at 20% $100 Billion in Dollars that they convert to Pesos. These mexicans need to come up with at least 20 Billion US Dollars in interest ( in addition to repayment of any Capital ( the original $100 Billion ) ) .

So Where do the Mexicans get the Dollars to repay their loans? More or less their govt has to borrow from its Central Bank which most all govts do ( including US ) which is simply the printing of currency. This devalues the Mexican Currency.

Caught in a Debt Trap, Mexico is forced to cope with this devaluation however it can. It may sell off its Oil industry or other public/private enterprises. It likely will be forced to export more goods to the US. Its workers will be forced to labor at a lower wage.

Now you can easily exchange the example of Mexico for any country that has borrowed in another currency, Indonesia, Thailand, Russia, etc.

Before you go tooting the US horn, you should know that $100's of Billions have been borrowed from the Japanese in 2 distinct cases. One, the Japanese have bought up much of US Sovereign debt. And two, many hedge funds have borrowed Billions of YEN converted it to Dollars ( and other currencies ) and invested it in US Debt and Equity markets. It appears that this is starting to unwind. The US Dollar lost around 10-15% of its value against the YEN in just a couple of days this past week!

So the US Dollar will likely collapse as well as the 3rd World countries. The US, being a rigid service-based economy, might find it hard to cope with the upcoming crisis, whereas some of these backwaters don't rely on international flows of funds and goods to survive.

July,1,1997 when the whole world proudly yelled: "We don't need Gold in our financial system anymore! An useless ancient relic!"
The Gold god are very humiliated, so he jumped below $330 and cursed the Financial world with it.
Since then, the Asian Flu started spreading, and Gold god refused to be comforted.
Now, he is enjoying the financial turmoils everyday and refusing to go back $330, because he want to enjoy this moment as long as possible.
He is very irrational right now; reasons such as falling Dollar, crashing bond and equity, save haven... are not reasons. In fact, he denies all the reasons to go back $330.

Have a look at the space suits being used now in the comparatively benign environment of earth orbit and then examine those purportedly worn on the moon. Ha ! Lo, Let those who have eyes that see, behold.

If, as I allege, the Moon Walk was a Fraud, then taxes have been levied for appropriations for the Moon Walk which were fraudulent. How many other appropriations has Congress made fraudulently ?

Or how I bombed Kosovo and retained the presiduncy.

1 ) Scratch Test
Gold is commonly mistaken for iron pyrites and copper pyrites. A scratch on gold leaves a mark the same colour as gold itself. Mica gives a white powdery scratch. Copper pyrite gives a greenish black powder. Gold is soft and easily cut. Iron pyrites ( fools gold ) are exceedingly tough. Don't get fooled.
2 ) Heat Test
Tarnished oxide of iron may be mistaken for gold. Unlike gold, it is brittle if cut with a knife or hit with a heavy object. Another method to determine iron and copper pyrites is to heat until red hot and then let cool ( drop into water ) . Iron pyrites ( fools gold ) turn red, copper turns black, mica loses its lustre, and gold remains unchanged. Go gold!!
3 ) Filter Paper Test
To test the presence of very minute quantities of gold, first pulverize ( use the fool's gold you bought from the pawn shop for $250/oz as a mortar, as it is very hard ) , then agitate with a mixture of alcohol ( do not use the vodka you are drinking. Try an alcoholic mixture of iodine ) . Then dip a piece of filter paper into your vodka, err gold mixture, and burn. If the colour of the ash is purple, then gold is present. You can confirm this by evaporating the alcohol ( what a waste ) and treating the residue with nitro-hydrochloric acid. Evaporate, dissolve the residue in water, drop into a mixture of stannous and ferric chloride, and then drink the unused laboratory alcohol ( not meths please ) . If gold is present you will have a deep purple colour.
.................
The above included a very tiny , wee little bit of plagiarism from 'Gold Prospecting' by Douglas M. Stone. ISBN 0 9596392 0 9. Lansdowne Press, Melbourne. Fantastic book. Amazon??

"Apache" web server may be of some help in heavy traffic. Works with a wide variety of operating systems, and is the most popular server on the internet. Freeware.

http://serverwatch.internet.com/webserver-apache.html

While assiduously carrying out my research on gold, I took a small break for provisions, which included a visit to the legal drug of choice centre ( bottle shoppe ) . After all this talk about vodka between our good mates Oris and JD, I thought it was about time to try some myself. Haven't had a screwdriver in many years. I was in a bit of a hurry, so picked up a good Russian brand called 'Imported Karloff Vodka'. Good price, too. Got home, started screwing...err drinking screwdrivers...not bad stuff. Second one even better!! What's that fine print on the label?? Bottled by Seagram, Australia. 37% alcohol. PRODUCT OF NEW ZEALAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! After spraying OJ all over my keyboard I had another sip. Hmm. Now where can I get myself a tupping crayon??

It is going to be very boring around here as everyone on this site ( bar one ) has told me that gold is going down for the next few weeks ( DON'T COUNT ON IT!!!! ) . After my next moon walk I shall be researching 'impeachment' ( funny how they faked those moon rock specimens they brought back--maybe I should switch from vodka to moselle ) .

Question: What is the difference between Andrew Johnson and bj ( bill jefferson ) Clinton?? Answer soon!! Wake up Yanks!

Nick@consumerrights

Did the label say it was made from finest whey alcohol? Cos it probably was.

'American Graffiti' has just started on the tele. My 14 yo daughter is watching with me. Gonna see how the 'old man' grew up.

G'day Auracious. Whey wouldn't they use potatoes?

They just showed on TV ( wished I had taped it ) , a British Channel 4 production which showed that there was tobacco and cocane in ancient Egypt. Now these plant products are believed to originally have been exclusive to the Americas. The show spoke of how trade between the Americas and ancient Egypt must have existed, and that the pyramids of Mexico seemed to be related to the Egyptian pyramids. Only a few archeologists would dare present the hypothesis that there was world trade before Columbus. The establishment denies this? Why?

Nick@Fonzerelli
whey is way cheaper

Gianni Dioro ( Foreign-Denominated Loans ) .....

"Helping out the World".......

Hey buddie can you give me a dime, better still a Dollar.

If you reflect on the expansion of US debt, and there is a lot of it, and parallel the US$ debt of the said countries, you get to the point of no return, LITERALLY !

It becomes a bit ridiculous where a derivative is taken out on the price of banannas and coconuts. Besides who ever heard of a "Coconut Republic" !?

Beyond the shores of the USofA........there exists a land, or two, "free" of Americans!!! And there is one where people wear kilts !

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Namaste'

Nick@C ( Simple Tests That Distinguish Gold From Other Minerals ) ...

Take it along to a bank.....

Two questions....

1. What does "America" do to those countries who cannot pay back their debt ?

2. What does "America" do when it cannot pay back its' debt ?

Looks like "America" is the meat in the sandwich ?!

Thanks for offering some proof that there was an American who walked on the moon. I was beginning to believe in that conspiracy, too.

Well, today we have Armstrong saying the world's financial system is about to end but that gold will provide no sanctuary. In fact with their being milions, maybe billions, of oz of silver in hiding in Europe, a short Silver position may be one of the best investments that can be found in this envirionment - seems some hedge funds have made that bet.

There seems to be an alarming coincidence between Armstrong's statements bearish on silver and down spikes in the metal. Have noticed, though, that from Friday's close the trend in that metal has to be reclassified back to down. He apparently has an audience.

Yes, Nick@C it only takes a down day in gold to turn everybody into ameteur technical bear analysts. I suspect by Tuesday they will all be out in full force, anger will take over and food fights will break out...and that will be a buying opportunity.

You know, I did feel better when the dollar was strong and gold was struggling agaisnt it but doing well in foreign currencies. Now the dollar is weak and gold even weaker in leading foreign currencies.

Time to give this stuff a rest . . . too close to it . . .

G'day Haggis. That book I mentioned. Lots of good maps and other technical details. Good action on NHG Friday. I hear soon some big cash in the kitty will make them chaper than market cap. How's the underground stuff going??

Yes, mate. Look at any gold share index chart. Straight up for six weeks.What goes up must...

Then back up with a vengeance!! Am going to buy a few laundromats to take care of all the gold shorts!!
......................................
Question of the day: What is the difference between Andrew Johnson and bj Clinton?? The response has been overwhelming!!

Answer: The 17th Prez survived by one vote.

LTCM..........."We are the Wall Street version of the Titanic, we have hit a bigger iceberg than we thought........oh dear......

http://nypostonline.com/business/5431.htm

A week is a LONG time.......... now back at the starting gate.....

When, these poor countries can't come up with the Dollars, then they sell off sovereignty and industry like motor plants, oil fields etc.

As to the US, there's plenty more where that came from, just fire up the presses.

You know, I was responding to some Yankee who had a bad case of Schadenfreude and who was telling the Mexicans that their country was going down the crapper because of the problems of Brazil. I decided that my response to him was worthy of posting here, so I did it.

By the Way, did you know that the Bank of Scotland preceded the Bank of England?

A man takes the day off from work to go golfing. He is on
the second hole when he notices a frog sitting next to the
green.

He thinks nothing of it, and is about to shoot when he hears,
"Rabbit 9 Iron". The man looks around and doesn't see
anyone. Again, he hears, "Rabbit 9 Iron".

He looks at the frog and decides to prove the frog worng, puts
the club away, and grabs a 9 iron. Boom! He hits it 10
inches from the cup. He is shocked. He says, "Wow, that's
amazing. You must be a lucky frog, eh?". The frog replies,
"Rabbit Lucky Frog".

The man decides to take the frog with him to the next hole.
"What do you think frog?", the man asks. "Rabbit 3 Wood".

The guy takes out a 3 wood, and, Boom! Hole in one. The
man is befuddled, doesn't know what to say. By the end of
the day, the man golfed the best game of golf in his life.
He asks, "OK frog, now what?". The frog replies, "Rabbit
Las Vegas".

They go to Las Vegas, the man says, "OK, frog, now what?".
The frog says, "Rabbit Roulette". Upon approaching the
roulette table, the man asks, "What do you think I should
bet?". The frog replies, "Rabbit $3,000 Black 6". Now,
this is a million-to-one shot to win, but after the golf
game, the man figures what the heck. Boom! Tons of cash
come sliding across the table. The man takes his winnings
any buys the best room in the hotel.

He sits the frog down and says, "Frog, I don't know how to
repay you. You've won me all this money, and I am forever
greatful". The frog replies, "Rabbit Kiss Me". He figures
why not, since after all the frog did for him, he deserves
it. With a kiss, the frog turns into a gorgeous 15 year old
girl. "And, that, your honor, is how the girl ended up in
my room, so help me God, or my name is not William Jefferson
Clinton".

no greater wealth ever existed that might exceed the warmth of GrandMother's everywhere...

NICK@WHERE-EVER-sedulous...pliant...convivial...

We isn't that bright nor proud...jest Americans...

willing and able to take 30,000 ft drops to insure your waffles...

Never give up on America...cause we haven't...

We are so ugly...pretty wiggles...

There is a database of mineral locations in Australia, including GOLD, called MINLOC. it is available through the Bureau of Mineral resources in Canberra ( call a certain Brian Elliot ) . It contains some 60 000 locations, indexed by commodity. You require a GIS system to utilise the info.

Another source of information is "Gold Resources of Australasia" by E Elevatorski, MINOBRAS Publications, ISBN 0 942218 33 7. This is one of a series of gold publications covering the continents, and this one issue cost AU$ 750. A wee bit expensive, but has reasonable detail on the location past and current details of goldfields throughout Australasia. Good bedtime reading.

Stuck at Kookynie, tail end of a cyclone, so things are a wee bit wet today.

but no cigar ( woops )

The Madhouse was Charenton.

..

The fundamental difference between Scotland and England......

The Scots will ALWAYS be on top, but simple geographical definition !!

The poms hate that !!!!!

http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.32/mcigar1.html

This week could offer some great buying and selling opportunities.
SnP - The SnP looks like it's in wave C down and Friday's rally brought it back to the downward resistance line. This chart looks remarkably like the ABC decline of 1987. In that case on the Friday of expiration of the Oct puts ( 10-16-87 ) wave C closed at a price that was 1.618 of wave A. If that pattern were to repeat itself the SnP would be trading near 650 by this Friday's close. The Dow should have no more then 40 -50 left in it. Sell the SnP above 990 use a 1000 stop if stopped out reshort on a new hourly low. Go for the Jack Pot. Buy out of the money Oct puts. I was buying out of the money oex Oct puts yesterday.

Gold - Buy Dec Gold 292-290, this is the top of the down channel on the weekly chart. A test of that channel is quite natural.

Silver - Heading for the gap near 460. Buy under 465 for a long-term hold

Oats- Love them Oats long from 110.25.

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

NSA...eventually...as my Father taught me...there is a place outside of the glow of a candle and before darkness...the middle world...

Kindness...yup...

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

I am an AMERICAN...I am alive within the tear drop..YOUR GRANDMOTHER's handkerchief...

As an AMERICAN...I will gleefully lay down my LIFE...so that ALL that is you might teach the Sun to SHINE...

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold1.htm

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold2.htm

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold3.htm

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold4.htm

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold5.htm

http://www.aci.net/kalliste/gold6.htm

Kaplan reports that commercials are now net short gold. Further evidence that POG will see $285-290 before breaking through $300.

"In the pink corner, we have Dickface Armstrong, weighing in at 200 words.....AND in the silver corner, we have Warman Buffett, weighing in at 9 billion dollars. Gentlemen, lets have a clean fight!"

DING!

POW!!! ( plop )

"Oh my God, I think the little sumabitch is dead...he ain't movin'"

Yup, Albert Collins on his tele.........Da' Best of Bobby Bland ( my copy has notes from Bobby written all over it!...YES!!! ) ...Auric, you done some gooooood work in da' blues. my friend.

Now my favorite....let's start and stop there for the moment.....JIMMY WITHERSPOON.....JIMMY WITHERSPOON......JIMMY WITHERSPOON.

http://www.harbour.sfu.ca/~hayward/van/glossary/witherspoon.html
Read what Van da' Man has to say.......

Please go and get yo'self some mo' real Kansas City Blues ( the real shat ) ....Jimmy with ROBBEN FORD ( my favorite guitar player in this genre, I choose him over BB on weekdays....BUT IT's REAL CLOSE!!! ) I believe there are now three or four CD's of them ( together ) now available.

Gauranteeeeeeeeed by Studio.R to bring tears to yo' eyes.

OU-Texas.......doesn't look so good from where I be........ya'll tear it up, baby. studio.saluds!

http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard49.html

EJ, from the New York Times, "People are saying the current world crisis is worse than World War II or 1929." This is an interesting statement from a paper that is one of the many mouthpieces for the left/Klintonistas. Klinton NEEDS a crisis. Surely, if this time period was worse than 1929 OR WWII, then I would hope that we would know it and not have to be told about it.

Recall if you will, the early nineties. Every publication would have you believe that we were going through a 'mild' recession. The funny thing is, I knew more people who were out of work for more than year, most pushing two years, than who were working. Commercial space was selling for ~20 cents on the dollar. In one case, a building complex went for less than 5 CENTS on the dollar. A couple of lawyers bought a building complex from a bankrupt high tech company for less then $500,000 that cost around $20 MILLION to build less than a decade earlier. This was called a 'mild' recession. Now we are being told that the current 'crisis' is worse than 1929 AND WWII? :- ) )

They better be careful as to how they spin ( lie ) this out, perception has a nasty way of becoming reality. Afterall, isn't this what Greenspan alluded to in his analysis of inflation? If you tell them there is no inflation... then there isn't. :- ) )

force that through various commodity carries, profits by shorting
the 'real' economy into a depression, in order to make short term
paper gains. They will convert all real physical stockpiles and
new production into paper and then that paper will be devalued.
Buffett is a classical long investor. He may have $9 billion, but
he is small potatoes compared to the deflationary hedge funds.

Who will win? Perhaps that is the wrong question. The right question
is how did this fight develop in the first place? How could
a force so obviously destructive as hedge funds ever been allowed
to grow into the financial monstrosities that now threaten the entire
world economy?

I have got a better question. How does the world get out of this
hedge fund mess? If they are allowed to continue we get a depression,
because that is what they do: deflate. If we collapse them, we get
a world depression because so much financial assets are tied up or
controlled by them. How do we get out of this box?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/bhl.html

Slick will get out of trouble at ANY cost. He doesn't care what he has to do, so long as HE wins. When you have the left talking tax cuts, economic collapse, and those trivial 'sex' lies ( isn't funny how they acknowledge the perjury and obstruction of justice? ) that aren't crimes because they're 'sex' lies... you know somebody is in deep doo doo.

Think about it. WJC and his accomplices in the media are willing to destroy the rule of law to keep this sorry excuse for the wanton consumption of oxygen in office, and for what? The answer? WJC TALKS about their policy and attempts to implement it. Nothing else matters. If the rule of law is destroyed, then truly, we have lost much. Perhaps all will be lost as a result... A fitting epitaph to the left.

Keep this in mind when the crisis mongering is really put in to high gear.

Coagulate...the very last drop...Mine Honor would be defined by generations...truly...the explosion of you determines...ZEST...

FEROCIOUS on the Island that is Long...

Palms up,,,and,,,and bare...Penultimate...I see an ornament...the quick of the rush is slow...laughter...happiness...I know the color of you carpets...

all that is you...

ZEST...yup..

acknowledged by the establishment archaeologists that Indians in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were contacted by Vikings often during the 'Dark Ages,' possibly even before 1000 AD.

There is other compelling evidence that Europeans contacted the Indians in the regions of Virginia- from a strange Nordic stick-writing that can still be found in the area. This predates even the Runic alphabet.

It seems clear from legends and a few artifacts found among the Indians of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico- including the Mayans and Aztecs, that both Europeans and North Africans contacted them, possibly even Egyptians or Phonoecians.

Also, from time to time, one or more Indians would be carried by the Gulf Stream across the Atlantic to appear on the shores of Portugal, England, or North Africa. Of course, the Indians were caught by the weather, and didn't know how to survive on the open ocean like the Polynesians did. None of them are known to have survived the trip, but from the evidence, educated Europeans and North Africans knew that there was an exotic land to the West across the ocean. BTW- Columbus' debate with the naysayers of his day was not whether the world was round- that had been known since the time of the Greeks, in spite of what some silly North American schoolbooks say. The question was whether the trip was feasible, especially since any backers stood to lose a lot of money on what would have to be a fleet voyage, and the Portugese could get to India and Asia by known routes anyway.

Why don't archaeologists acknowledge this stuff- there's a reason that has to do with the career cycle and milieu of the typical academic, but I'll leave that for another post.

- STeve

Thanks, Donald, many, many thank you's are in order for all the wonderful URL's you share with us all.
That last one was a peach!!...just one thing... I wonder why the last two sentences ( The bears.... ) had a different type set?
Hmmmmmmmmm...... I wonder where this piece of the puzzle fits?
Chicken man...in sunny AZ.

he sailed West . . . The two most alluring things in the world- silk and gold!

- STeve

You are quite right in your assessment of that pantload in the whitehod. I think that he will say anything or do anything to keep our eyes off the ball. I never thought about it until you said it but the global crises could be embellished to save his sorry glutus maximus. I guess that is less costly in lives than to bomb countries and thus create a crisus that he must step forward and save our quivering knees over. I think the economy is bad enough with what is going on without him putting his wrench in the works. Clinton reminds me of a wild animal in a trap. He is trying everything at this point except chewing his leg off.

Sorry about the spelling, I meant Whitehouse and not Whitehod ( whatever the heck that is.

There is documented proof in Portugal that they were fishing the Grand Banks long before Columbus set sail for the Americas.
I have been trying to find in what part of Texas the Island that is long is situated..... Any ideas.

http://www.pcis.net/jeannev/jeil.htm

For Friday 09 Oct calculated from data published in Saturday's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
LIBOR--------------5.41--------------5.31--------------5.16----------------4.91
MGLR--------------4.82---------------3.78-------------3.48-----------------2.89
Gold Lease Rate-0.59---------------1.53-------------1.68-----------------2.02
( Change ) ----- ( - 0.01 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) ------- ( + 0.08 ) ------------ ( + 0.15 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
LIBOR--------------5.41--------------5.31--------------5.16-----------------4.91
Silver Lend Rate--3.90--------------3.40--------------2.60-----------------2.05
Silver Lease Rate-1.51--------------1.91--------------2.56-----------------2.86
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.45 ) -------- ( - 0.90 ) ------ ( - 0.80 ) ----------- ( - 0.55 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 05th Oct to Friday 09th Oct
GOLD
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month | 1.37,,,,,,,1.08,,,,,,,,0.60,,,,,,,,,,0.60,,,,,,,,0.59
3-Month | 1.85,,,,,,,1.73,,,,,,,,1.52,,,,,,,,,,1.53,,,,,,,,1.53
6-Month | 1.82,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.58,,,,,,,,,,1.60,,,,,,,,1.68
12-Month| 1.92,,,,,,1.95,,,,,,,,1.87,,,,,,,,,,1.87,,,,,,,,2.02
SILVER
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month | 2.18,,,,,,,2.21,,,,,,,,2.21,,,,,,,,,,1.96,,,,,,,,1.51
3-Month | 3.06,,,,,,,3.01,,,,,,,,3.11,,,,,,,,,,2.81,,,,,,,,1.91
6-Month | 3.57,,,,,,3.46,,,,,,,,3.46,,,,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,2.56
12-Month| 3.41,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,2.86
Regards............Dabchick

nuggets by the Roadsides around Peterborough lately?

Anyhow, you were wondering: "How could a force so obviously destructive as hedge funds ever been allowed to grow into the financial monstrosities that now threaten the entire world economy?"

The answer lies in that old saying: "Hindsight is better than foresight."

At the time it wasn't apparent to the speculators who put their money into these funds, or to securities regulators, that they were going to be destructive. It was obvious to hard-money types like us at the time, and it's now obvious to them now. During times of 'irrational exuberance' people will believe all sorts of hubristic, overreaching things- like the idea that some guys with a computer can accurately predict arbitrage opportunities accurately enough to support 100-to-1 leveraging without significant risk of ruin. Just like the Land of the Mississippi was going to make everyone in France rich! : )

I would contend that the phenomenon of overleveraging and being trapped by insufficient liquidity is inevitable- if you look back through history. Kondratieff's cycle is real.

Think about 1929. A period of unprecedented advances in science and technolgy had made it seem as though anything was possible. People were borrowing to live the 'good life.' Investment Trusts, the ancestors of Mutual Funds, were letting the ordinary man invest in the stock market without having to think. Thousands of wealthy investors were buying stocks on margin with only 10% or even 5% down. Is this starting to sound familiar?

You ask if there's any way out of this short of a Depression? I would have to say no, unfortunately. Excess debt always has to be liquidated, and governments always try to liquidate it via inflation. Mark my words- you will see the Fed relentlessly try to crank up the money supply. Don't be surprised if they open the discount window or fiddle with the funds rate even before their next meeting on Nov. 17.

Governments can only inflate successfully when confidence is high, among businesses, consumers and investors. Of course, if the imbalances are huge, and people take the 'free money' then hyperinflation results- as it has to in proportion to the size of the imbalance.

When confidence is not there, as in the US in 1929, or in Japan in the 1990's, the government can try to inflate, but the banks won't lend out the money and borrowers are afraid to take it anyway. The government keeps lowering interest rates essentially to zero- and deflation continues anyway!

It has become abundantly clear that a massive loss of confidence has occurred. This is why I'm saying there's no way out of this. The debt will be liquidated through a deflationary default mechanism- it's gonna be the Dirty 'Thirties all over again, Rhody me lad! Time to start getting ready . . .

-Steve

Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date---- | Close | High | Low |
05 Oct | 71.73 | 72.35 | 71.57 |
06 Oct | 71.14 | 71.38 | 70.62 |
07 Oct | 69.50 | 69.92 | 69.36 |
08 Oct | 69.33 | 70.24 | 69.02 |
09 Oct | 68.78 | 69.52 | 68.78 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
Friday's close is uncomfortably near its 16-year closing lows of 66.93 on 2nd September 1992 and of 67.70 on 12th December 1997. A fall below these lows would probably herald recession in real economies, ( or efforts by Central Banks to prevent same. )
Note that over the week since last weekend ( when the true value of gold on this index stood at 72.73 ) the true value of gold has fallen by 5.6%. Because the US Dollar has also fallen at the same time by 4.1% against all other currencies, this has had the effect of limiting the fall in the dollar price of gold to a fall of 1.5%.
Regards................Dabchick

panda, I'm as suspicious of the mainstream press and their ties to the ruling elite as anyone. I do not believe in active collusion, only the passive mechanism of the machine that evolves common interests and thus creates the motivation for cooperation among professionals in the press, government, and industry. Nonetheless, doom sells and the press can't miss the opportunity to report events in the most dramatic language possible. And there is, as you suggest, the spectre of a self-fulfilling prophesy here. We Kitco-ites are the canaries in the economic coal mine ( or is that gold mine? ) Our purchasing and saving behavior changed way back when we first sniffed the gas. Now the gas is filling the air. Already the impact is showing up in the Sept. numbers: high-end retailers are seeing a significant decrease in business and the discount retailers are doing better; the rate of increase in consumer debt spending is falling as well. This will hit US companies at the same time that Asia and Latin Am export business is off AND the earnings benefits from past years of "consolidations of operations" ( plant closings, layoffs, reduction is R&D, and so on ) hit at the same time. One, two, three.

SDRer, the meeting at Bretton Woods after WWII was a unilateral meeting. The US dominated with its singular power, with the rest of the world in a wreck. Last week's meeting had several strong players. In fact, no one could exactly agree who even had the strongest hand. The gloom aparently came from the relentless stream of bad news projected in presentation after presentation. No nation presented a good story. Imagine the impact on the mood of the participants of watching these things for days on end. The year before, everything looked so great. Now it looks like a train wreck. How could things change so quickly? Probably made them wonder if they know anything at all.

-EJ

The times, they are a changin'....

In the post World War II era, there began a move toward free markets in a global economy. Some spoke of a new world order.

For a single global economy to work, there needs to be a single global currency. Otherwise one currency can be played off against another and the players with the least capitalization lose.

For a single global economy to work, there needs to be some sort of global regulation authority. Otherwise large offshore or non-offshore hedge funds can operate in a non regulated way and grow to dinosaurian size.

We are now in an era between the acts. Hedge funds and large investors have used the banking system itself to take advantage of interest rate differentials ( whose root source was the high US real interest rate brought about by the Fed holding up rates even as the dollar rose ) .

This has had a net deflationary effect in US$ terms on global commodity prices, although in other currencies such as the yen this was not neccesarily so.

A bubble can only be inflated so far. Bull markets eventually run out of buyers and bear markets eventually run out of sellers. Now we see the dollar falling and the yen rising as positions are unwound.

This can only have a net inflationary effect in US$ terms, though not neccesarily in other currencies.

The Japanese, already tottering from the yen carry trade having taken all the liquidity out the economy, will be in dire straits for another year or more. Their export trade which was one of the few things keeping them going will whither with the rise in the yen, but manufacturing will benefit from falling commodity prices inasmuch as Japan imports most of it's resources. So in the end they will survive, and come to thrive again no doubt.

A hedge fund or two have gone down from being on the wrong side, as the trend in the dollar changed, but most have survived and will go long where they were short and short where they were long. They will be in position to take advantage of the change in trend from deflation to inflation. Commodity prices will soar and a new bull market in the stocks of builders of warehouses will develop.

Hedge funds do not promote deflation or inflation. They are creatures of the jungle. Opportunists.

Because they are unregulated and wont to excess, they create volatility.

The new millenium will have to deal with these problems. It will come to pass that we will be looked upon in the same manner that we look upon the feudal system of individual war lords of the middle ages.

We will have markets that go sideways with great up and down surges for a while, but in the end globlization will win out.

The internet and the computer age has been born.

The media is the message.

I'll be back later.

Y2K for the Euro.............................

is January first nineteen ninenty nine
and if it survives that date,
then September nineth ninenteen ninety nite
January 1, 1999
September 9, 1999
01/01/99
09/09/99
99/01/01
99/09/09
01,01,99
09,09,99
1/1/99
9,9,99
99,9,9
99/1/1
99,1,1
and so one and so forth.....
because computer programmers have been programmed to be
a lazy bunch of "IDIOTS".
( no offense intended toward the valiant, hard-working and highly intelligent lot of computer programmers around the world ) .
Before all, a wise man once wrote;

"Life's but a walking ( at lightning speed ) shadow,
A poor player that struts and frets his hour
Upon the stage ( the internet ) and then is
Heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an "IDIOT", full of "SOUND" and "FURY"
Singifying nothing."

Back to the cave.

http://www.smh.com.au:80/news/9810/09/text/business6.html

VERY IMPORTANT post from Bill Murphy on SI. Rubin and the boys doing all they can to keep gold down. Flooding the market with liquidity.



Yes, you are right. The action is stinko. I will be reporting this in Midas on monday that I think the fix is in.
Just got back from my old stomping ground in the city and talked with some of my people.
The essence of it is ( my opinion ) the fed and other central banks are fixing their problems one at a time. They
are making gold available from all corners for borrowing purposes. As you know capital availability is
contracting in most all corners. In gold it is increasing. Why?
1. governments do not want it to appear that there is too much fear and panic in the market place. Gold is a
symbol of that
2. And most important. Gold is a source of money for hedge funds that need it to solve their other problems and
it is a way for the central banks and financial institutions to be on the same side of the program.
EX on the hedging side of what is going on - a very well known producer is being offered gold to forward
hedge with almost no credit requirements which they have had to utilize in the past. NONE. The producer has
never been offered these terms before. The Wall ST. firm offering the transaction is closely tied to Rubin.They
want gold to hit the market place to keep the price down for now. Of course, the pressure cooker builds.
Bill

http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/1008/icbusiness1.asp

Has this assessment stood the test of time since publication in The Economist in December 1997?

Capital goes global

The rapid rise in international financial flows is
often blamed for making financial markets less
stable. The blame is undeserved

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/18-1-98/index_sb0230.html

Date: Sat Oct 10 1998 10:11
Gollum ( @rhody ) ID#43349:
Copyright  1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The times, they are a changin'....

That was truly well written, and thought out, even weller! HOWEVER mr. Gollum, are we leaving out
a little bug, or shall we call it a virus, named y2k, which may change the entire scenario to ......who knows??

From 1996 a democratic senator by the name of P. Moynihan, wrote a little letter, after thoroughly investigating
the matter of y2k, to the president, warning ole Bill that he has to deal with .."a problem which
could have extreme negative economic consequences during your second term. The "year 2000 Time Bomb". etc.

Will this change your outlook a bit ???

May be, Im wrong, but In most cases expiration trashes as much options as possible. Having current call/put ratio for equities, isnt it more likely that S&P will close coming week higher, sending puts to the garbage can? I would not bet much on crash

It such is funny how the same Wall Street names keep popping up. Didn't
Rubin's cronies also have their fingers in LTCM? This "little move" could help LTCM to cover their bets ( no less at a profit! ) IMHO this could be gold and silver's BIG move!!........DOWN!!!....sorry gold bugs...But it could be one of those "if I had any money I would have bought" type of low.

Just a thought....Chicken man....anybody...?

http://WWW.WARROOM.COM/archives.exe

good realaudio stuff..

This proposed flooding of the market with gold will be a tricky task as they must be careful not to ring the deflationary alarm as they did some three weeks ago when gold hit the low $280.00 level! Codeman called this move three weeks ago as he felt that the Gold market had the potential to collapse the entire financial system. There is little doubt that this move will be completed with little effort, considering the power of the players. The reason I say little doubt is that I believe there are a couple of caveats over hanging the gold market.
1 ) The Chinese Government have considered increasing their gold holdings from 359 tons to 1000 tons or more. Should they decide that the risk in the US Dollar is real they may decide to take advantage of the liqidity and the artificial pricing which we are sure to see.
2 ) The same can be said for Japan! What an opportunity for Japan to convert their US Treasuries into the yellow stuff! A lower USD will give Japan the opportunity to buy gold at fire sale prices.
3 ) What if the market soaks up the liqidity and the price of gold continues to move up! This could set the stage for $1000.00 gold.
As goldbugs we are in a battle which has all the markings of turning into a war. Should gold be pushed back to its lows my only advice would be to load up on species as history is in the making!

Boomer thinking ??...need real audio...click on "millenium survivalists"
...under listen to top stories....talks about gold...

http://www.npr.org/news/tech/

good luck....steve

I remember two weeks ago when all the "experts" on CNBC forcasted the bond yield to drop as low as 4.5% in the coming weeks. They all proclaimed that it would stay there until the world feels safe again. Not one "expert" foretold of a rising yield. Know why? Because all they do is follow the current trend. "The trend is your friend" and you can never be wrong.

I also remember a few of you being hesitant about going short on the bond. Some of you probably did ( congradulations ) but most of you probably didn't. The reason why you didn't is beacuse of fear.

In a post yesterday, someone picked on Warren Buffet ( as if being worth $30 billion isn't enough proof of your legitimacy ) . Yes, he did buy a lot of silver and silver lost a lot of ground yesterday. But do you think he's really worried? The man probably bought more. His most popular saying is "When everyone is gready, be fearful and when everyone is fearful, be gready." Sounds like a perfect scenario for the bond and the metals. The bond has reacted, now it's time for gold.

Am I disappointed in the way gold has faltered as of late? You bet. I'm up to me ears in gold calls. But if there is one consistency to gold, it is it's inconsistency. If the bond can drop 5 full points in 2 days then who knows what gold is capable of doing ( or silver for that matter ) .

Yes, the show cited as an example that for many years it had been asserted that the Vikings had come to Nova Scotia before Columbus, but this had most always denied by the establishment until recent times.

I guess a carbon dated viking ship in Nova Scotia is pretty hard evidence to refute.

It's simple. They can control the price of gold, for a while. Rubin, like Clinton, is overmatched and in serious trouble. Fundamentals point to higher levels for gold. Governments inflate. Demand for metal is rising.

And I thought I was crazy. I'm holding Jan and will consider Nov if things start setting up a little better, but jesus APH, buying Oct out-of-the-money expecting 300pt move on S&P on the day of expiration, that'd take more conviction that my soul could muster, definitely a crap shoot, except with more risk, more return. Of course, if you could pull that off, ain't no doubt, you'd be the man.

If ..and I say IF...the price of Gold tanks... this would mean deflation is here in a big way...i.e...sell stocks...Gollum's Rattle snake market??

Killed 5 footer last week...skinned the critter and nailed him to the wall ( 10 inches wide!! )

Hpope to kill a critter on Wall Street next week..IMHO

Got knocked out of gold yesterday. Wasted most of what I made on bond puts.

Don't be so pessimistic kitcoites.
While it is possible that we will go back down to the $387 level ( dec ) , my charts say that monday will be the last day of this pullback. Most likely the 396.7 level will hold. Will jump back in if we get in the vicinity.
The weekly chart is still very bullish. Even if we hit the 380's it will be over in a week. Gold is scheduled to be near or over 320 ( maybe 340 ) in no less than 5 weeks. The peak of 4/24/98 is the midpoint between the peak of 10/3/97 and the upcoming highs. This chart formation will not fail.
Silver is the reason gold dropped. I watched the charts minute by minute hoping the stupid silver traders would let up. Alas, it didn't happen and I got blown out of gold. I expect silver to spend a day or three down here, then add about a dollar when gold takes off.
Perhaps silver options would give me more bang for the buck. dec 300 gold cal-600, dec 500 sil call about 500. Maximum nearterm high for gold is 350 or profit of 4400-700%. Maximum nearterm for silver is 6.00-6.30?-say 6,000--1200%. But then recessionary fears may inhibit silver. decisions decisions

Because of the falling dollar which portends inflation flight money has decided to run from long term paper into short term paper. This is causing a fall in short term interest rates.

The Fed, still thinking of low unemployment and inflation, in the bacl of it's mind was reluctant to lower rates even a quarter of a point but did so because of global concerns. Now with short term rates falling more than the Fed thinks prudent, they will act to hold the line by selling short term paper to all comers.

This would be a tightening of monetary policy which they also would not want to do because of liquidity problems in an already tight market. So they will "sanitize" the operation by simultaneous buying long term paper which will help to stabilize long term prices.

Not all the money fleeing long term paper will be going into US paper, however. Much will be used to buy yen or francs or pesos or whatever to buy into the foreign bond markets which suddenly look more attractive.

This will be inflationary and the dollar will continue to fall.

Gold will trade in a narrow range early in the week but begin to rise in the last day or two.

Silver was oversold by panic dumping among various large funds Friday and will rebound to some extent in the early part of the week and narrowing the gold/silver ratio.

Equity markets will continue to be volatile, with some enthusiasm in the early part of the week but more selling after some "bombshell" news around mid week.

Now, off to do more stuff. I'll be back later.

an additional note--while watching silver dive, I kept trying to find the news and rumors that may have set it off. There was none except for the news that the stupid lemmings at large trading firms ( go ahead sell when your defective computer programs tell you, you idiots ) , which makes me suspicious of this selloff in terms of lasting effect. I don't think there will be any lasting effect, just another good chance to buy cheaper silver and gold

We are all using models, waves, charts, neural nets and whatever to predict the future of financials. I have a challenge for anyone who likes predictions. Where will a ping pong ball end up in three years if it is cast into the ocean on an outgoing tide on the southern tip of Florida? Yes, there are too many variables involved and too many unknowns to solve this problem. How much information is denied our predictions? What are the real number of variables. Who can predict human actions and reactions? If the above problem exits for those trying to predict, then the problem is just as great for those trying to control the vast chaotic morass which is our modern financial system. Complexity compounds complexity until we descend into chaos and I call this symphony the "Tower of Babel Syndrome" which can be heard by turning to any financial channel.

Per AP, Russia is planning to mint Gold coins to pay off some debt. The catch is only $6.30 of Gold content per $100. face value. When Gold will be revalued, thats about what you'll get for your greenbacks..........

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981010/market/markets1.html

The Fed wants the yeild curve to get steeper. The reason is that
the banks can't make money with a flat curve and, therefore, will
restrict lending. The Fed wants more lending--not less--in order
to keep the financial system from collapsing.

http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/0813/icissue.asp

Maybe monetary, fiscal and economic policy should emulate and be implemented along the lines of weather policy, given the infinitude
of unknowable inputs. ;- )

Hatt: I agree that the primary trend in gold is changing from bear to bull.. But with the boys determined to keep it down ( but not too far down ) for now at least, best to only buy on substantial weakness. XAU 70 before XAU 90.

Dreyfus and CBOE are fast for index and equity options but not commodities. ( either that or I don't know how to code the request right )

In 1993, I tried to play the short term moves in the gold market. When I looked back at the end of the year, I would have been better to just sit on my original stocks and ride the vallys out until my long term indicators screamed overbought. I admit that it crossed my mind that NEM could be sold at $31 ( it didn't quite get there ) , and then buy it back at $25 ( if it gets there ) .

This is just too precise for me and I know that I will miss that lower target, and the stock will shoot upwards.

Old Gold, you seem to be afraid to bottom fish ( probably wise ) , but you have no problem guessing the short term top. Doesn't this reduce you profits on trades significantly?? I thought that you were a trend follower.

...or will consumers and corporations worldwide continue to close their pocket books more than they already have out of fear and uncertainty?

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981010/market/markets5.html

Mozel-re:"Risk should pass into weaker hands. And will, where and when the actors are free of coercive force and fraud."

COMMENT: This is 'old world 19th century banking, based on a perceived set of mutual accepted values. The world of 'banking on derivatives' is 'new paradigm' 'new risk' banking, and that world seems to 'based' on situational ethics..

Might we agree that force and fraud may often = the "is" and "are" of the "Art of the Deal"? Quid pro quo may be a simple, rational exchange between consenting parties, or ransom/reward/intimidation between King and pawn. In a perfect world, risk would logically flow to the weakest hands because they're attached to either the least informed or the least 'informable'.

However, your "mutually contradictory" brought to mind situations like the General Mills derivative case, ( and others ) wherein the two poles mentioned in your first post, morph into one entity. That is to say that the "protection racket" has moved inside the bank, and further, the 'need' for 'protection' is a consequence of 'money policy' that is -arguably-controlled by the banking system.
So, one still feels your first post spotlighted the central moral question regarding banks in our day, our time. ( Your mind seems trained to 'go for' the moral jugular. )

"Those who are not compelled by circumstance to take a greater risk will not." This suggests that they have all the information available to them to make a rational decision, and further perhaps, that this information is transmitted by the seller; this appears to be in conflict with the facts of many derivative deals. Whether the information was unavailable because it was not understood to be relevant or willfully withheld, the responsibility [in our mythical 'perfect world'] is the same. In addition, questions arise from the bank's position as 'hawker' of currency protection, e.g., conflict of interest seems pertinent, if not paramount. These are the moral question that need to be addressed, and questions to which your 01:21, 10/10 post alluded.

Whether the 'fraud' is a deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain, or a piece of trickery, or merely the bank assuming the false pose of "derivative expert" when NOT in possession of all ramifications, or not sharing that information, their moral position [under perfect world rules] is open to question, at the very least.

In gloomier moments, it seems the quintessential conflict between "man not as he is, but as he can and should be"--the classical definition of art's mandate to uphold a picture of the 'good man', the MORAL man -and the standard of our world, "The Art of the Deal"; it is perhaps, the distinction between banking as we thought we knew it, and banking as it now "is", an unknowable. This is another of those questions worth a brace of books.

It is, however, a world of banking desperately in need of moral discipline of the kind offered by gold, and further, gold in the hands of the people.

Dollars are already flooding home from abroad due to lower estimations of the strength of the US economy. If after the introduction of the euro when the dollar no longer dominates as the world's reserve currency and dollars are sold for euros, what kind of dollar inflation might we have? The theory of efficient markets suggests that this is happening already, as currencies that act as a proxy for the euro are bought and dollars sold.

I've scanned a 1 peso note from 1967 with a 1000 peso coin from 1988.
-EJ

Historically some items became more than just barter items.
Some become standards of exchange - a form of "money".
A site describing the "Origins of Money and of Banking"
http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/origins.html
Some historical examples are amber, beads, cowries, drums,
eggs, feathers, gongs, hoes, ivory, jade, kettles, leather, mats,
nails, oxen, pigs, quartz, rice, salt, thimbles, umiacs, vodka,
wampum, yarns, and zappozats ( decorated axes )
and I add gold dust, bear claws and pistol & rifle cartridges.
So what will we use
after the economies and monetary systems collapse post Y2K?
If paper money is next to worthless because the backing gov't
and its economy is in a shambles what will rise to the call?

THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH SILVER AND GOLD COINS
in the hands of common Joe & Jane 6pack to take up the slack
and even if there were, the average person's perception that
gold = money has been all but destroyed. For proof, just try
using Gold or Silver coins to buy a restaurant meal or to buy
some merchandise at WalMart or most any other retail store.
Of course they will accept Silver quarters - for their face value.
Just try buying a $1 cup of coffee with ONE old silver quarter.

Given the above - what will we be using?
Even 30-06 cartridges are only worth 50 cents American ( for now ) .
Does anyone have any ideas for something that there are billions of,
or that could be produced in the billions, that is worth about US$20.
I choose US$20 since there are four billion $20 bills in circulation
whose role in commerce and private trade would need to be replaced.

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm

Mike Stewart: I am not afraid to bottom fish. Just think this reaction has considerably further to go. RJ who I think is the best gold forecaster on this thread looks for POG to back down to as low as $285. Liquidity is again flooding the market and lease rates have tanked again. XAU 70 or perhaps 65 looks like a good bet before long.

Read "Discover" magazine Oct 98. A special issue devoted to the science of money. Great articles on the Euro and the problems it faces in the changeover. It reads like science-fiction or a world gone mad.

From another thread. The author's record has been extremely good over the past few years on stocks, bonds, and gold ( still cautious on POG ) Trade against him at your peril.


As for the equities market, I see this years' low still at the 7250-7300 area, with a rally to 8200 to 8400 in mid January, then
a very sharp decline into late June to 6300 or so ( that date is still iffy, one turnip shows the low in August ) . Hopefully, I'll
be able to refine the model as time passes.

The greatest worry about the Year 2000 problem, this survey will
argue, may be neither its direct effect on economic growth nor,
probably, its potential impact on human welfare. Rather, it may be the
extra uncertainty it will create just at the moment when the world
economy is already becoming increasingly fragile, with confidence
shaken by events in Asia and Russia, and weakened by the faltering of
Americas long boom.

http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/19-9-98survey/index_survey.html
-----
When bad things happen, they all seem to happen at the same time. Even without the prospect of the Y2K problem, the stock market can be expected to drop at the century change anyway.
-EJ

If Silver drops more then a 100 gram coin will be needed for a value of US$20 ( in October 1998 dollars ) . Anybody have a better answer to Grizz's 15:21?

Last night for the first time I saw the new $20 bills. Holy
shit, talk about just a piece of paper with numbers on it! Looks like they were trying to save on the ink; the reverse is bare as the
monetary system's ass! Who could have confidence in this stuff?
A sea change is coming to your neighborhood soon! Give me gold!

had worth even as money among those that use neither. In jails they use cigarrettes, contraband, fresh fruit as currency. I'm sure that in an crisis very similar units of exchange would come into being.

They've been circulating around my area for a couple of weeks, now. I find myself spending the new $20 more easily than the old. It doesn't feel so much like spending money to surrender one of these cheezy looking bills. My friends have reported the same phenomenon. Perhaps issuing a new version of a currency is inherently inflationary since it diminishes the perceived value of the bills in which the currency is issued.
-EJ

kindness...oh yes...a tolerance for the mis-guided adults...because...they realize not that money is nothing save a funding of emotive thought and too many get easy credit...

to the leaves...Fall on the Island that is Long...crunch, squiggle...yup...

yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

the rational cognitive capabilites of a 4 year old...seek no controls...

let the wingless fly...infinity is the glow within them...

Hey Mooney,....TEQUILA! heh, heh, heh...

http://www.cnn.com/US/9810/10/y2k.survivalists/

Obsidian
In times past obsidian too was a prized trade item in NZ, but Greenstone ( Pounamu ) and dog skins ( kuri ) were more prized still. Obsidian was sourced mostly from Mayor Island, off the E Coast of the N Island and Greenstone from the W Coast of the S Island were found ubiquitously in all Maori settlements within a couple of hundred years of first settlement.

As far as "wierd" money is concerned I've always liked:

the stone money of Yap, the largest "coins" were about 2m in diameter, look like lifesavers, and were wheeled from village to village in payment of debts and for potlatch.

and

The playing card money used by the French ( ? ) military in the early days of European settlement of Canada.

Then again, our S Pacific Peso has always reminded me of Monopoly money.

for you and the Lady...the arc between my hands out reached and touching the sky signifies MY wish that you live Large...Bless you Both...

NAMASTE'.........................

http://lp-llc.com/cents/hanseatic.shtml

I wouldn't want to have glass balls.............


namast


arms folded.....knees wobbling..........waste bending.........head aching........ ( grin ) ...

http://www.jvim.com/cgi-bin/update.cgi

Crickit is nice...............


But...


ALL EYES ON SAN DIEGO.................... ( 2day ) .


go padres - 3-0?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
away...to the ballgame


take me out to the ball game
take me out to the crowd
buy me some peanuts and crackerjack... ( and little gold coins )
i don't care if i EVER get back

so it's root root root for the PADRES
if they lose[won't happen] it's a shame
and it's ONE, TWO, THREE strikes yer out
at the ooooold BALL - GAME!

( an old 'merkan tradition sung during 'seventh inning stretch' ) .....just in case you forgot Big John D. You ole Virginian you.....

go pds!!! yahoo!!


Tony Tony Tony TONY TONY TONY......
http://www.padres.com/ ohmy.

Moral force-"A rare moral force"

Not so strangely perhaps, a theatre review by Alastair Macaulay provides a reasonable standard by which we might guage the ability of a leader to lead. Writing of actress Judi Dench, he says:

"moral force is rare in both life and art. It comes from conviction, from integrity and from decisiveness."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Aurator@considering.favorites Here is an idea whose time has come?
and, for the paper-people, the perfect gift

Collecting One Billion ( 1,000,000,000 ) China Bank of Hell Note
http://www.wscoin.com/info/billionhellnote.htm

One could become very fond of the CONCEPT of the "Bank of Hell Note"

"As in 1992-1993, there is only one way for the Fed to support the
profitability of the banking system, and this will be achieved by
lowering short-term interest rates until the yield curve steepens. But this
is becoming more and more difficult with long-term interest rates falling
precipitously."

http://lp-llc.com.cents/dagnino.shtml>http://lp-llc.com/cents/dagnino.shtml

-EJ
p.s. http://lp-llc.com. Great site, Donald!

The Fed does not follow nor desire to follow an inflationary policy. Nor do they follow or desire to follow a deflationary policy. Their sesire is a status quo policy. They would like to see a steady rate of growth, neither too fast nor too slow and a matching money supply.

Unfortuneately for them the US is just one small part of a global economy so they are constantly having to hit the brakes or the throttle in an attempt to maintain stability in a chaotic world.

I feel that large scale international currency manipulations and hedge fund operations created an apparent deflationary trend as they pulled liquidity out of the global system, and that the reversal of trend will have them inducing an inflationary bias whether the Fed wants it or not.

There are those who do not agree. JP for one feels that the deflation is somewhat more cosmic than that and will run it's course even to the point of global depression.

Others feel that events are more consiratorialy controlled. Heck, there are even some who feel men never landed on the moon.

Perhaps they are right, perhaps not.

We shall see.

http://www.goldmoney.com/fgmr/230.htm

The following was written by State Representative Mitchell Kaye of Cobb County, GA.

We, the sensible people of the United States, in an attempt to help everyone get along, restore some semblance of justice, avoid any more riots, keep our nation safe, promote positive behavior and secure the blessings of debt-free liberty to ourselves and our great-great-great grandchildren, hereby try one more time to ordain and establish some common sense guidelines for the terminally whiny, guilt-ridden,
delusional and other liberal bedwetters.

We hold these truths to be self-evident: that a whole lot of people were confused by the Bill of Rights and are so dim that they require a Bill of No Rights.

ARTICLE I
You do not have the right to a new car, big screen TV or any other form of wealth. More power to you if you can legally acquire them, but no one is guaranteeing anything.

ARTICLE II
You do not have the right to never be offended. This country is based on freedom, and that means freedom for everyone -not just you! You may leave the room, turn the channel, express a different opinion, etc., but the world is full of idiots, and probably always will be.

ARTICLE III
You do not have the right to be free from harm. If you stick a screwdriver in your eye, learn to be more careful, do not expect the tool manufacturer to make you and all your relatives independently wealthy.

ARTICLE IV
You do not have the right to free food and housing. Americans are the most charitable people to be found, and will gladly help anyone in need, but we are quickly growing weary of subsidizing generation after generation of professional couch potatoes who achieve nothing more than the creation of another generation of professional couch potatoes.

ARTICLE V
You do not have the right to free health care. That would be nice, but from the looks of public housing, we're just not interested in health care.

ARTICLE VI
You do not have the right to physically harm other people. If you kidnap, rape, intentionally maim or kill someone, don't be surprised if the rest of us want to see you fry in the electric chair.

ARTICLE VII
You do not have the right to the possessions of others. If you rob, cheat or coerce away the goods or services of other citizens, don't be surprised if the rest of us get together and lock you away in a place where you still won't have the right to a big-screen color TV or a life of leisure.

ARTICLE VIII
You don't have the right to demand that our children risk their lives in foreign wars to soothe your aching conscience. We hate oppressive governments and won't lift a finger to stop you from going to fight if you'd like. However, we do not enjoy parenting the entire world and do not want to spend so much of our time battling each and every little tyrant with a military uniform and a funny hat.

ARTICLE IX
You don't have the right to a job. All of us sure want all of you to have one, and will gladly help you along in hard times, but we expect you to take advantage of the opportunities of education and vocational training laid before you to make yourself useful.

ARTICLE X
You do not have the right to happiness. Being an American means that you have the right to PURSUE happiness - which by the way, is a lot easier if you are unencumbered by an overabundance of idiotic laws created by those of you who were confused by the Bill of Rights.

The crystal balls aren't so bad, except when I'm running, I sound like . Capt Queeg. :- )

( Rueters ) Thursday, IMF managing director Michel Camdessus termed the U.S. dollar's plunnge against the Yen "inappropiate" and "disorderly". While a strenthening of the Yen was to be expected in the longer term, the speed and extent of the rise wasn't warrented by the current Japanese economic outlook.

I'm sorry, did I read this right? The IMF is complaining of unfair play?
Hmm, let me see... Didn't the IMF tamper with the price of gold last week by falsely reporting they might be selling some of their gold reserves?

Unbelievable, that's all I have to say.

Calling the market right now is like bettin on a horse race and you don't know th horses and some of them have been drugged. We are a bit familiar with the jockeys but to cast money into this quagmire is rather frightening. Nevertheless I will take Golden Stud in the Eighth.

I just visited the Lyndon LaRoche site. He claims that Brazilian banks were big lenders to Russia but provides no source material. Does anyone have independent information?

No stones are skipped when the yittles think of you...none...

YOU who are the horizon...greet our dreams...we are awake and asleep...

We fade into the stark reality...

from the sleep...we purge ourselves of your anger...

ALL that is your BEST...is the ink on Invitations we so very much breathe from the post-Box...this is special...do not move quickly...the ink will smudge...

Carlos and I seek a place on the carpet...

Kindness wins above all...yup..uh huh...

gulp to ya...

bills in my pocket and bank account, I think they should have just called a spade a spade and renamed these federal reserve notes - bank of Hell notes a long time ago.

SDRer

John de Castro of Portugal, having captured the castle of Diu, in India, borrowed of the inhabitants of Goa 1,000 pistoles for the maintenance of his fleet, and gave one of his whiskers as security of payment, saying, ``All the gold in the world cannot equal the value of this natural ornament, which I deposit in your hands.''

SDRer

John de Castro of Portugal, having captured the castle of Diu, in India, borrowed of the inhabitants of Goa 1,000 pistoles for the maintenance of his fleet, and gave one of his whiskers as security of payment, saying, ``All the gold in the world cannot equal the value of this natural ornament, which I deposit in your hands.''

It is always tempting to come up various theories about what's causing financial events. When they're going the way one wants them to, then one tends to think of one's self as a genius, as did most of the fund managers on Wall Street until recently. When they're not going the way one wishes them to go one may look to an image cast upon the wall of the cave as a chart, or the movements of the stars, or look for evidence of manipulations by nefarious unseen powers. If you are busy taking care of the kids, washing the clothes, paying the bills, working a full-time job, to worry about these things, you hope that all-powerful government institutions and the wise men who run them protect your financial safety, as the do your personal safety, with their awesome financial weapons.

This is an article of faith. Conversely, if you are a member of one of those powerful government institutions, you expect the markets you presumably control to go your way as well, and you may get a little testy when they don't, as when Michel Camdessus recently termed the U.S. dollar's plunge against the Yen "inappropiate" and "disorderly."

What is more difficult to accept is that markets, while influenced by powerful interests, are not controlled by them. This is a lesson that must be relearned from time to time, apparently once per complete generational cycle, every 60 years or so. That's how long it takes to forget the lesson.

The market decides what the dollar is worth. The market will decide if we have inflation or deflation. The market will decide the fate of Japan. The Fed's moves are largely irrelevant, although after the fact the Fed will be blamed for doing the wrong thing no matter what it does, and it will be endlessly debated: too much liquidity? Too little? If only...

Doesn't matter. The global market is what it is, complex as it is, made up of humans, complex as they are.

As you say, we'll see what happens. All I know is that it will not be what any of us expect. Gold is the ultimate hedge against the ultimate uncertainty.
-EJ

I am no fan of the IMF, but it was Mr. Brown of the UK who said the IMF might want to consider selling some of their gold reserves to finance the South American bailout. This had always been opposed by Germany, but he said the new German regime might not be so opposed.

Th IMF then issued a statement which said NO WAY would they ever sell their gold reserves. That said reserves were needed to bolster confidence in the IMF.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/6b.html

From a list of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, this loan to IFC [WB] in a 'currency' unknown to me

9 ) IFC-International Finance Corporation, DRC 15 billion
http://www.ifc.org/

What, pray tell, are/is DRC? Is this some in-house currency belonging to the World Bank? {:- ) ) It is not listed in the ISO sheets I have. Does anyone know? Can anyone give a good guess?

Also-gaugesorry.

Aurator@money.of.the.heart That's very special. ( And frankly, worth
more, don't you think? )

Rumpled
you are not alone

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/z8.html

Very well put.

What is, is.

We tend to invent hobgoblins far bigger and scarier than what really goes bump in the night, and to ignore the far more dangerous tides of destiny that oft come our way.

I feel the Y2K thing will cause some problems, but by far the most turmoil will be caused by fear of the Y2K. December of 1999 will be a month of brave men crying, much gnashing of teeth, and women fainting in the streets. No one will want to be in the air on New Years eve. Markets will quaver. Come February of 2000 everyone will be sitting around saying, "Is that it? Is that all there is?"

And so it goes...

DRC, just a guess that DR is "Democratic Republic" Places that are neither like that title. Cambodia comes to mind.

Donald
Hmm, I got Dem Rep Congo, perhaps some fancy bond?

Democratic Republic of the Congo?

ANOTHER and Friend of Another are hosting a discussion at USA Gold today beginning at 19:00 hours. The first post follows:

ANOTHER ( 10/10/98; 16:38:31MDT - Msg ID:487 )
Is the Yen door closed?
Gold has walked this path before, many times. Now, the way home is blocked. All watch and ask, who are these that must follow a yellow guide? 

The G-7 have closed the Yen carry trade. Think you now, long and hard! To close a contract in Yen, it does create the loss, yes? Yet, a close with gold requires the supplier.

In which direction will the billions move? Free money was supplied to the greedy by nature. Now these gentlemen will perform a task written by others. Truly, only fools would think gold is offered without purpose. For the price of free paper currency be high when returned as real gold! We watch this new gold market together, yes?

Another

( from the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter borrower listing )
14 ) Fannie Mae, YEN 100 billion

Sounds reasonable. Usually even the least of the least is listed on the sheets...brave new world indeed. Thanks again.

In keeping with Donald's post would that then be Democratic Republic? of Congo?

http://www.phillynews.com:80/inquirer/98/Oct/07/business/CASS07.htm

Federal Reserve Chairman:
`It's so difficult to predict the unpredictable,'' Parry said.

re "hairy money" 18:22. Perhaps the most amazing, insightful post EVER at Kitco. Makes ANOTHER look like ANOONE. Makes LGB look like a rocket scientist. Makes Donald look like an inflationist. Makes tolerant look intolerant.

I will regrow my once luxuriant full beard forthwith. Though it will not be black this time.

re the unpredictable. Tell me about it. ( ;- )

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101p.htm

"Why was the WB borrowing 15 billion in the currency of an area of the world imploding? Are we back to the smell of three day-old fish? Does this make prudent fiscal sense, and I'm missing it?

"Warning: The following report is primarily concerned with recent developments in the province of North Kivu in the extreme east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Readers should note, however, that the conclusions and recommendations contained in the final section of the report, relate to the broader situation in both North and South Kivu.

International Crisis Group ( ICG ) field analysts have been monitoring developments in North and South Kivu since April 1998. It was initially intended to release simultaneously at the end of August 1998 two seprate reports - one on each province. Given the rapid pace of events in the region in the past two weeks, however, ICG has decided to release the present report immediately. A follow-up report, looking more specifically at events in South Kivu, will be released in the coming weeks." [Perhaps the 15 bn was to print the reports?]
http://www.crisisweb.org/projects/cafrica/reports/ca02main.htm

Thanks again for the input. Back to de swamp

Martin Armstrong and fellow manipulators at Merrill and UBS "aka Ted and Andy" have really done a incredable job of lying to protect their shorts.

What should be kept in mind is "that many" Lead, Zinc and Copper Producers supply roughly 75 percent of silvers annual production as a byproduct of their base metals.

Not all will be able to make it at prices of $0.223/lb for lead, $0.422/lb for Zinc and $0.717/lb for copper. Prices are from LME 10/9/98.

http://www.usatoday.com:80/news/comment/colhenr.htm

I am sitting here in front of the Apple monitor crusin' Kitco, killing time until my wife gets dressed so we can go out to an Egyptian birthday party in New Jersey. What a country. Naturally I have been all dressed for 45 minutes now. This is NOT the way I usually look seated at the keyboard scrolling thru Kitco.

So what's my point? My wife, who is in Real Estate, asked me today if there is going to be a recession. I went on and on about collapsing asian currencies, cheaper goods coming in, fewer American goods going out, etc - I was a one-man Kitco, one moment sounding like Donald and Puetz, predicting all out deflation and "total collapse" ( available at bookstores and on the internet for 29.95 ) . The next moment sounding like aurophile, or Mike Sheller, claiming THIS was the depression phase of the Kondratieff Wave, and Inflation - or REflation was next. But when all was said and done, I found myself parroting the words of so many commentators - that a recession WAS coming. So...this means EVERYONE knows by now that a recession is coming. It is factored into the market. Many people know that a DEpression is coming. It is factored into the market. I laud the sterling minds at Kitco - this was anticipated over a year ago! Everything that happens gets exposed at Kitco first - it's really amazing. So what I'm saying is that since I found myself parroting, hypnotically, the current mantra that recession was on the way, I must conclude that nothing of the sort will happen, and if it does, it will be mild, and the stock market is now a very dangerous place...for the bears.

Are you ready dear? OK...just talking to some friends.

Have a good nite all...life goes on.

realize how insignificant and unrelated the stock market's level is to what is happening on a Global scale! Buy the dip, for what! Even without all this global turmoil, earnings were forecast to be lower next year over this year. re: The stock market and the world economies..........it just doesn't matter! The Stock markets of the world have ZERO bearing on these Huge global problems! If you still own syocks you should be glad that this realization has not dawned upon the stock markets yet. BUT, this realization will be comming soon, to a theater near you!!!!

The DRC money is a big gamble.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981006/mi_ladbrok_1.html

Is it a gold play?
"In addition, control over the exploitation of Kivu's considerable economic potential...The mineral resources,MAINLY GOLD IN NORTH KIVU, could very quickly generate income.
http://www.crisisweb.org/projects/cafrica/reports/ca02main.htm

Anyone know the area well enough to hazard an opinion? Shoot, hazard an opinion anyway...one hair's worth. {:- )

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/bbr.html

This is a politically incorrect race!
The Sire Stakes consist of six RACES DIVIDED BY AGE AND SEX.
IT IS ALSO ELITIST!
The races are restricted to thoroughbreds sired by stallions
Question: sired by stallions? Is there another way?
More egalitarian? Signed, Confused

of the Congo over the gold.

A carton of cigarettes is an unwieldy replacement for a US$20 note. But after Y2K a *pack* of cigarettes could be worth that much - but even a pack is unwieldy. Obsidian, you feel that something will become such currency. With this I agree. But if we could guess what that would be and stock up on it ahead of time at today's prices we could be rich after Y2K! Something that would be highly valued by and accessible to the average person, something that would be a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange in common everyday "street" transactions. Earlier I proposed large Silver coins to take over the role now filled by four billion US$20 notes. But there is not and won't be four billion 1oz Silver coins ( let along heavier ) to take up the slack.
We do have a pickle?
Hmmmm
PICKLES! They last a long time, everyone can make their own.
They are useful - they can be eaten in a crunch.
How much for a quart jar of big juicy dills?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/vd.html

Chas et al - you guys are asking the wrong mints! Try Russia!
http://www.therussianmint.com
Warning: the site is graphics and Java intensive but worth it!
I'll bet the Russians are hungrier and more negotiable on price than the Aussies or Kiwis. And you don't have to go through hoops for a 10-grainer since they are already doing it!

MoReGoLd - what is the denomination on that 10 grain coin?
Did Billy Goat permit them to put US$100 on it?
Somehow it wouldn't surprise me if he sold out minting US money to the Russians. Actually it does, I would've expected it to be the Chinese.

So much for the new US$100 note. It might be replaced by the US$100 10-grain Gold coin ( which is minted in Russia! )

I had a reply ready which referenced the Sheep Races in New Zealand. Not wanting to upset my friend Aurator I decided not to respond.

Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors

Select Gold & Precious Metals are at a
Critical Overhead Resistance Level.

Realistic, you have been a steady Bull on bonds, yet this past week bonds tooks a beating erasing well over a month's past gains. Can you explain why you remain such a bonds bull in the face of the past week's disaster? Are your friend and relatives happy with you? Do they still talk to you? Are you as big a dunce as you appear to be? What kind of sadist are you, chasing after certain posters to remind them of their occasional errors? Are you into S & M? Do you tie your wife up in chains and degrade her as you attempt to degrade certain people on this forum? Do you and LGB sit in the same little cubicle at Loral, preparing coffee for Mr. Schwartz?
Do you have any analysis to offer besides litanies of dumb questions, designed to attempt to show you have a brain in the face of all evidence
suggesting that you are one big huge intellecutal cipher?

Please answer these questions as you seem to avoid them.

Thanks.

F*

Realistic, you have been a steady Bull on bonds, yet this past week bonds tooks a beating erasing well over a month's past gains. Can you explain why you remain such a bonds bull in the face of the past week's disaster? Are your friend and relatives happy with you? Do they still talk to you? Are you as big a dunce as you appear to be? What kind of sadist are you, chasing after certain posters to remind them of their occasional errors? Are you into S & M? Do you tie your wife up in chains and degrade her as you attempt to degrade certain people on this forum? Do you and LGB sit in the same little cubicle at Loral, preparing coffee for Mr. Schwartz?
Do you have any analysis to offer besides litanies of dumb questions, designed to attempt to show you have a brain in the face of all evidence
suggesting that you are one big huge intellecutal cipher?

Please answer these questions as you seem to avoid them.

Thanks.

F*

Realistic, you have been a steady Bull on bonds, yet this past week bonds tooks a beating erasing well over a month's past gains. Can you explain why you remain such a bonds bull in the face of the past week's disaster? Are your friend and relatives happy with you? Do they still talk to you? Are you as big a dunce as you appear to be? What kind of sadist are you, chasing after certain posters to remind them of their occasional errors? Are you into S & M? Do you tie your wife up in chains and degrade her as you attempt to degrade certain people on this forum? Do you and LGB sit in the same little cubicle at Loral, preparing coffee for Mr. Schwartz?
Do you have any analysis to offer besides litanies of dumb questions, designed to attempt to show you have a brain in the face of all evidence
suggesting that you are one big huge intellecutal cipher?

Please answer these questions as you seem to avoid them.

Thanks.

F*

It must be very crowded at the local inn! WB Group, our old friend, Standard Bank...
Interesting that the "gold" button returns a 404

$100 million for Gecamines [Standard Bank]; Standard Bank has arranged US$190 million debt and equity financing for International Panorama Resource Corporation's
http://mbendi.co.za/indy/ming/mingzrcu.htm

"An international consortium launched an exploration project there, then abandoned it because of political instability after spending $300 million on housing and airstrip construction."

Trillion Resource and Melkior are investigating a 2800 square kilometres property between Tenke Fungurume to the north west and Kipushi to the south east, with 12 known copper/cobalt deposits with reserves of 52 million tons grading 6% copper.

"A Chinese company is active at Ruashi."
My goodness! I wonder how much 15 billion in DRC amounts to in
Standard Bank money?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/8i.html

Donald,
Thank you for considering my feelings, however, there is little that offends me personally, besides being mistaken for an aussie.

Add this little negative projection about the stock market from Golden eagle.

Back to readings of "DONALD"
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke101298.html

SDRer/mozel/Donald/All

In the light of earlier discussions about the unequal assumption of risk and efficient markets I have been wondering whether we are witnessing the emergence of a "new derivative" with an ancient history, called

THE DIOMEDEAN SWOP:

An exchange in which all the benefit is on one side. This proverbial expression is founded on an incident related by Homer in the Iliad. Glaucus recognises Diomed on the battle-field and the friends change armour.

"For Diomed's brass arms of mean device
For which nine oxen paid ( a vulgar price )
He [Glaucus] gave his own of gold divinely wrought
An hundred beeves the shining purchase bought."

Pope Iliad vi.

Have we got any beeve-keepers on the line?

Just ya love primary industry humour?

attached to this pet project of yours. I have been there many times. Most notably over a patent I once received for an invention. I spent years and many thousands of dollars *absolutely convinced* that I would soon be rich. ( actually, three companies were impressed enough to enter in licencing agreements..But I digress ) After all these years and dollars spent I finally realized that, while a great idea, "it wasn't something you couldn't live without" This was a great blow to my self esteem, especially having invested so much of myself.

While I think these "coins for the millenium" of yours are a great idea, and might be very useful, I don't think they are irreplaceable. And human nature is by and large lazy. And like water usually takes the path of least resistance- so in a time of privation people will not sit around and starve for lack of coin- they will barter and use amazing resourcefulness and ingenuity. If I have shotgun shells and you have turnips but no gun, by golly we'll find the other neighbor that has a gun and some extra batteries and enter into a deal. I doubt that all would sit and lament not having a 10 grain coin with which to strike the bargain.

So, Yes, I do think that if things really got to a serious state, people would proove to be amazing improvisers. In world wars cigarettes, candy bars, booze, medicines, coffee, etc etc ALL become currency, and whatever is regionally abundant becomes the local currency to trade for something outside the region.

BTW I'm going to trademark that "coins for the millenium" phrase...just joking.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981009/1l.html

My thinking is a bar of soap should be worth at least 20 USD if things
fall apart....soap is something that lasts, but is used up, so appreciates
in value....much the same as cigarettes in prisons...also not easily
replaceable.....go ivory soap....steve

This past month, gold mining shares have proven to be the most outstanding performers in the XAU, up well over 70% in one month. Yet, you have steadfastly advocated equities and bonds as investments day in and day out despite their being such dismal performers recently. Even more astounding, you persist in denigrating those who advocate these recently stellar investments.

Does your wife still sleep with you? Do your friends and relatives talk with you? Do you sit at home alone and masturbate as nobody will have anything to do with you? Do your incessant postings designed to reveal your imagined superiority ultimately prove you to be a major asshole? Who appointed you to be policeman of the world? Do you post on other gold forums and harass those posters as well? Did you acquire your inferiority complex as a child? Did any of the other kids suffer playing with you? Why are you so inveterately boring? Do you ever do anything except ask questions? Does a single original thought pass through that empty little head of yours?

Please answer these questions as you have avoided doing so before.

Thanks

F*

This past month, gold mining shares have proven to be the most outstanding performers in the XAU, up well over 70% in one month. Yet, you have steadfastly advocated equities and bonds as investments day in and day out despite their being such dismal performers recently. Even more astounding, you persist in denigrating those who advocate these recently stellar investments.

Does your wife still sleep with you? Do your friends and relatives talk with you? Do you sit at home alone and masturbate as nobody will have anything to do with you? Do your incessant postings designed to reveal your imagined superiority ultimately prove you to be a major asshole? Who appointed you to be policeman of the world? Do you post on other gold forums and harass those posters as well? Did you acquire your inferiority complex as a child? Did any of the other kids suffer playing with you? Why are you so inveterately boring? Do you ever do anything except ask questions? Does a single original thought pass through that empty little head of yours?

Please answer these questions as you have avoided doing so before.

Thanks

F*

This past month, gold mining shares have proven to be the most outstanding performers in the XAU, up well over 70% in one month. Yet, you have steadfastly advocated equities and bonds as investments day in and day out despite their being such dismal performers recently. Even more astounding, you persist in denigrating those who advocate these recently stellar investments.

Does your wife still sleep with you? Do your friends and relatives talk with you? Do you sit at home alone and masturbate as nobody will have anything to do with you? Do your incessant postings designed to reveal your imagined superiority ultimately prove you to be a major asshole? Who appointed you to be policeman of the world? Do you post on other gold forums and harass those posters as well? Did you acquire your inferiority complex as a child? Did any of the other kids suffer playing with you? Why are you so inveterately boring? Do you ever do anything except ask questions? Does a single original thought pass through that empty little head of yours?

Please answer these questions as you have avoided doing so before.

Thanks

F*

This past month, gold mining shares have proven to be the most outstanding performers in the XAU, up well over 70% in one month. Yet, you have steadfastly advocated equities and bonds as investments day in and day out despite their being such dismal performers recently. Even more astounding, you persist in denigrating those who advocate these recently stellar investments.

Does your wife still sleep with you? Do your friends and relatives talk with you? Do you sit at home alone and masturbate as nobody will have anything to do with you? Do your incessant postings designed to reveal your imagined superiority ultimately prove you to be a major asshole? Who appointed you to be policeman of the world? Do you post on other gold forums and harass those posters as well? Did you acquire your inferiority complex as a child? Did any of the other kids suffer playing with you? Why are you so inveterately boring? Do you ever do anything except ask questions? Does a single original thought pass through that empty little head of yours?

Please answer these questions as you have avoided doing so before.

Thanks

F*

This past month, gold mining shares have proven to be the most outstanding performers in the XAU, up well over 70% in one month. Yet, you have steadfastly advocated equities and bonds as investments day in and day out despite their being such dismal performers recently. Even more astounding, you persist in denigrating those who advocate these recently stellar investments.

Does your wife still sleep with you? Do your friends and relatives talk with you? Do you sit at home alone and masturbate as nobody will have anything to do with you? Do your incessant postings designed to reveal your imagined superiority ultimately prove you to be a major asshole? Who appointed you to be policeman of the world? Do you post on other gold forums and harass those posters as well? Did you acquire your inferiority complex as a child? Did any of the other kids suffer playing with you? Why are you so inveterately boring? Do you ever do anything except ask questions? Does a single original thought pass through that empty little head of yours?

Please answer these questions as you have avoided doing so before.

Thanks

F*

Congo French Franc ( It's so dizzying to keep track of the rise and fall of these African governments ) if it's of any value for your research the exchange was 615 to 1 dollar.

As for the diamonds, I know that De Beers was keenly insterested and may have signed licencing agreements for the diamond rights. But with all these areas, whomever wears the leopard hat today is the guy who makes the rules and he may ignore licencing agreements signed with the hat wearer of yesterday who has...uh hum, unfortantely, met with an untimely retirement.

I have suggested to all of my Kitco mates that the bottom was in. My sincere apologies. It appears that I was wrong.
...................
SEATTLE:How big are American bottoms? The United States Coast Guard says 46 cm. At least that's the standard allotment on the ferry between Vahon Island and Seattle. But officials say that the standard has not kept pace with America's expanding bottom line.
Using the old standard, the Coast Guard measured benches on the ferry boat Skagit and set the maximum load at 250 people. But ferry officials noted that many people could not squeeze in and were forced to sit in the aisles. They cut the maximum capacity to 230 after finding that 240 was still a squeeze.
Ferry spokeswoman Susan Harris said, " Eighteen inch ( 45.7 cm ) butts are a thing of the past. We have all expanded."
..................
Mimicking its human counterpart, gold seems to be making an expanded bottom. I hope we also get a double top!!

and lock the door.

Seems many metal bulls are out looking for a clue of
future direction or some hope that the action on Friday doesn't
portend another shot at 8/31 lows. Given the size of the
Gold Lease/Central Banks Cabal's war chest vs. ours I suggest
we are in for a new "greater buying opportunity".

Did a little comparison of Revenues to Valuation on some
of my favorite stocks in this arena.

Stock Valuation to Revenues from Yahoo Profiles
SWC 7.13
SSC 6.02
ALTA 5.44
PAASF 4.74
NEM 2.91
GRERF 2.89
HGMCY 1.30 ( my estimate )
CDE 1.07

Quite a spread. I'd like SSC down at 3 times revenues
which would imply a stock price of 3/8. GRERF looks
like it could be a real winner if its 400K production does come
in during '99. HGMCY, my favorite, is conservatively priced. ALTA
seems to be anticipating good results from its new
Olinghouse mine.

SWC's revenue to valuation in '99 should come down to about 3::1 assuming PD holds current prices.
Could somebody tell me what's wrong with CDE other
than the fact
that it can't get any revenue down to the bottom line.?

( hgmcy ) with a PE multiple of 1.3 times correcting should the
markets crash?

My take on this is very basic. For strong growth we need cooperation, cooperation between people requires trust and faith in one another. It's simple - we "invest" in one another with ease, and the more people who get in on the game, the more we all win. Shared visions, dreams, a time when we give, and we all win in spades. This has been the time that we see the large structures being built, the large organizations we put our faith in, the high numbers in the markets, the large yields from corporations and industry, this has been the good time. Faith and trust build on each other - the more money a company's customer makes, the better a company does, and the more they have for their vendors, and so it goes, around and around, everyone investing in one another. But it can get out of hand, and I think that it has. When the game gets too big, when there's too much growth, too much optimism, and too much faith, the game simply gets too fast, it all begins to border on the fantastic. Things get un-balanced and in the back of our minds we start to worry that maybe things aren't as good as they appear to be. I think that's where we are. It's not that everything isn't okay, it's just that faith, trust, and cooperation have been at such heights ( much to our credit ) that we're due for a shift for a while. What caused the financial problems we have today ? Nothing. Nothing but people's shared vision that it was time to be a little more careful. Witness the origination of all this - Thailand. What happened to the Thai economy that could have destroyed the whole of the world's financial systems ? Nothing. People had just been overly optimistic investing in the Thai economy, and somewhere, at some moment, somebody got scared, somebody had a flash of justified selfishness, and withdrew their money from the game. That sparked others to wonder if things were as good as they seem, and more money left, then Japan, then property values start to un-wind in the orient, and banking takes a hit, and currencies start to fall, and investors pull out of asia, and people flee from russia, and now latin america, and finally the US markets. This, to me, is just a spiral of faith, trust, and cooperation that has been at all time highs, into mis-trust, worry, anxiety, and pragmatics. This is the stuff of recessions. Why are people talking about recession now ? It's not that it was there and nobody saw it, we're creating it right now, we're all creating it when we pull back, and it's justified. Every person who calls his or her broker and moves into cash creates it. Every person who saves 10$US by sewing their jacket instead of buying a new one creates it. Every person who doesn't buy a home for fear they aren't going to have a nest egg in the market creates it. Every loan officer who won't give an entrepreneur start-up money creates it. We, in my read, are entering a time of recession, of slow down, not because anything is wrong, but because everything is right. Recession follows growth, bust follows boom, the antithesis of faith and trust. So what's my point - my point is that I think we can bet, and I plan to bet, on the down-side of all this, because when the momentum builds, it's not reversed with ease, that is, faith spirals down as quickly, and without any more justification, than when it builds. The glass is once again becoming half empty, why ? Simply because it was half full.

rhody -
If the market crashes, and more importantly, if the market crashes AND they contain the price of gold, EVERYTHING will go down - even companies with strong earnings forecast like SGOLY, HGMCY, SWC etc.

I suppose one could look at Jeil's chart of ASA for a possible outlook of this scenario. Having said that, they should recover quickly in '99.

I'm going to hold onto my shares of all the above, but will probably buy some way out-of-the-money puts on the XAU early next week as cheap insurance, especially in view of what Bill Murphy says is happening to defeat gold as a place for money to flee to.

jims-
CDE seems to have a high cost problem and a fairly high debt level, which keeps their revenues from the bottom line. Even so, it sells for much less than book value and has more than the price of the shares ( I think about $8.80 per share ) in cash. If gold/silver shares are weak going into the end of the year, CDE will be high on my buy list with my 'dry powder' funds.

APH among others is there offering all sorts of opportunities. Whether we take advantage of them is up to us and our circumstances. The fact is that he deserves our appreciation and thanks for sharing his work with us.

Sorry for the late reply, but I drink too much coffee and Kitco is, well, you know, too much coffee. Perhaps I should feed some coffee to the Kitco server? :- ) )

Regarding Klinton and the Crisis De Jour, yup. Give him enough time. You have understand that the analogy of an animal chewing off its limb is apt and translates to Klinton vis a vis by throwing his 'friends' to the wolves. I understand Hillary is visiting the former ( ? ) Eastern Block countries. Hmmm, I guess they didn't question Ceucescou's ( I know the spelling is wrong, but I believe it was Albania? ) actions in office eh? After all, what's a little perjury, obstruction of justice and a few 'oral' pleasures compared to killing a few hundred people when the peasantry folk got a little rambunctious. We could do worse, right? At least that's the crap that's begin fed to us via the boob tube.

Human nature is funny. You know the story about the boy who cried wolf? Well, what happens when it's 'crisis' instead of 'wolf'? It kinda gets old..................................

I heard about some business conducted between Russia
and Brasil, but heard nothing about Brazil being a BIG
LENDER to Russia. I have no proof but my feeling is that
it is not true, it is just too radical to assume that
Brazil would lend big money to Russia.

Farfel, can you tell us when will the market collapse as it certainly didnt do so last Spring as you announced it will.

Thanks.

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 17:50
farfel ( WHY A STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE WILL OCCUR THIS SPRING, NOT IN FALL... ) ID#339265:
Once the American stock market collapses ( along with the Dollar ) , there will be significant instablility in the world financial markets. The net effect: essential commodities will revalue themselves upward ( in U.S. dollar terms ) in an astounding slingshot effect

In the midst of a healthy correction from panicky record levels of around 135 ( !!! ) , bonds are still a full 10 points ( ! ) above levels of last March.

8 months ago, bonds were around 118.00.

People who invested in bonds around March and April of this year, have been part of one of the most amazing bull market of the board this year.

What are your friends thinking of this huge move Farfel?

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03
farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

Farfel,

Do you still buy more when Gold goes down like lately? Do you still don't care and buy more? Any news about the promised Gold short squeeze?

Please let us know, thanks.

Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 19:30
farfel ( ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...while I was down at the unemployment office, I got into a lengthy chat with all the fellas standing in line. Drunk as I was, I still managed to explain quite coherently my favorable opinions on gold as an investment asset.

By the time I finished, an amazing thing happened. All the guys were chanting...some weird, sing-song slogan...I think it went something like this...

I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE.
I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE.
I DON'T CARE...I'M BUYING MORE.

Now, I can't predict what the cumulative purchasing power of some 30 unemployment cheques will have on the price of gold but every little bit counts, don't you think?

Fondest,

F*

Back in April, you said that Gold wouldn't retest it's lows....

Not only Gold retested its lows but went further down another $25!

Given your past predictions of a bear market in bonds ( the opposite happened ) , a collapse in the stock market in spring ( that didn't happen either, and again the opposite occured with new highs ) and an upcoming so-called short squeeze in Gold that never materialized either, can you tell us what systems and line of thinking you are using when predicting markets and when investing money so that we could all avoid predicting the same way, therefore increasing our chances to be the right side of the markets?

Thanks.

Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 21:19
farfel ( @JTF...I do not believe gold will retest its lows... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...for one fundamental reason...

...if gold were to fall below 300 again, then it would probably indicate the resumption of the gold bear. In other words, I believe such a downward move would prove psychologically devastating to gold longs and I would expect there would be huge capitulation, taking the metal down to 200 or less over a relatively short period of time. Since I fervently believe we are a gold bull...given the amazing strength of gold recently in the face of a spate of continuous daily negatives and Wall Street maneuvres attacking the metal...therefore I cannot foresee the scenario allowing for such a severe retraction.

On the other hand, I see increasing evidence of an imminent "BUY PANIC" developing just around the corner for both gold and silver.

Thanks.

F*

Back in April, you said that Gold wouldn't retest it's lows....

Not only Gold retested its lows but went further down another $25!

Given your past predictions of a bear market in bonds ( the opposite happened ) , a collapse in the stock market in spring ( that didn't happen either, and again the opposite occured with new highs ) and an upcoming so-called short squeeze in Gold that never materialized either, can you tell us what systems and line of thinking you are using when predicting markets and when investing money so that we could all avoid predicting the same way, therefore increasing our chances to be the right side of the markets?

Thanks.

Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 21:19
farfel ( @JTF...I do not believe gold will retest its lows... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...for one fundamental reason...

...if gold were to fall below 300 again, then it would probably indicate the resumption of the gold bear. In other words, I believe such a downward move would prove psychologically devastating to gold longs and I would expect there would be huge capitulation, taking the metal down to 200 or less over a relatively short period of time. Since I fervently believe we are a gold bull...given the amazing strength of gold recently in the face of a spate of continuous daily negatives and Wall Street maneuvres attacking the metal...therefore I cannot foresee the scenario allowing for such a severe retraction.

On the other hand, I see increasing evidence of an imminent "BUY PANIC" developing just around the corner for both gold and silver.

Thanks.

F*

You must understand that I would not hold anything other than pm
shares. I got out of everything else by last May. I may put in
some low bids on hgmcy and sgoly and wait for the crash to bring
the asking prices down through them. It's all I can do, as my
real job does not allow access to a 'puter terminal.

With lease rates down well below 1% again, the funds and CBs are
once again in full control. IMHO, we go back down to 290 from here.
God knows what will happen to silver. Traders are comparing it
to an industrial metal. Not good. Or Armstrong et al are getting
worried about shrinking COMEX stockpiles, and their short positions.
It will be interesting to watch what happens to these stockpiles this
coming week. Personally I'm hoping silver drops back to $2.
Stocks will disappear pretty quickly at that price. There are about
3 months of available silver in the COMEX warehouses, and base metal
prices are hitting multi year lows. Base metal mines supply most
of the world's silver, and I think we shall be hearing about more
mine closings. The question is, will consumption fall faster than
production? Lease rates are falling for silver too. The silver
carry is about to be re-initiated. That's good for accelerating
consumption, but bad for spot POS. I don't care. Accelerating
consumption lands Armstrong in bankruptcy litigation.

Back in April, you said that Gold wouldn't retest it's lows....

Not only Gold retested its lows but went further down another $25!

Given your past predictions of a bear market in bonds ( the opposite happened ) , a collapse in the stock market in spring ( that didn't happen either, and again the opposite occured with new highs ) and an upcoming so-called short squeeze in Gold that never materialized either, can you tell us what systems and line of thinking you are using when predicting markets and when investing money so that we could all avoid predicting the same way, therefore increasing our chances to be the right side of the markets?

Thanks.

Date: Mon Apr 13 1998 21:19
farfel ( @JTF...I do not believe gold will retest its lows... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...for one fundamental reason...

...if gold were to fall below 300 again, then it would probably indicate the resumption of the gold bear. In other words, I believe such a downward move would prove psychologically devastating to gold longs and I would expect there would be huge capitulation, taking the metal down to 200 or less over a relatively short period of time. Since I fervently believe we are a gold bull...given the amazing strength of gold recently in the face of a spate of continuous daily negatives and Wall Street maneuvres attacking the metal...therefore I cannot foresee the scenario allowing for such a severe retraction.

On the other hand, I see increasing evidence of an imminent "BUY PANIC" developing just around the corner for both gold and silver.

Thanks.

F*

Ad seen recently: On Sale Soon: A Splinter of the True Cross and a piece of Moon Rock fixed in Crystal Lucite. Make sure your family has one.

P.S. Call for close out prices on Pet Rocks.

Japan's Government Considers
Voucher Plan to Stimulate Buying

By NORIHIKO SHIROUZU
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

TOKYO -- Japanese policy makers, groping for ways to prod consumers to spend more, are
beginning to consider handing out government-backed gift certificates.

Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa has ordered the ministry to study how effective a program
to distribute dated vouchers might be in encouraging spending, as well as how the program
could be carried out. The idea, which private economists say could prove costly to implement
and might not work anyway, also was discussed Thursday at a special meeting of cabinet
ministers in the administration of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.

That the government would even consider such a novel concept -- economists say it would be
the first time it has been tried anywhere -- reflects Tokyo's growing desperation as it struggles
to get the economy back on its feet. The government has tried priming the economic pump
with nine spending packages totaling almost 100 trillion yen ( $829.53 billion ) . It has tried tax
cuts, as well as forced down interest rates to as low as 0.25% in some markets.

But nervous Japanese consumers are still refusing to step up their spending, a major reason the
economy hasn't recovered. Household spending fell 2.4% in August from a year earlier.

All that has left Japan's economic mandarins casting about for anything that might get
consumers back into the stores. An opposition political party vowed to push for a spending
voucher program during an election last summer. And several economists and lawmakers have
bandied the idea about in recent weeks. But only this week has it become clear that Mr.
Obuchi's cabinet has decided to take a serious look at the idea.

However, government officials remain wary, noting that distributing the certificates fairly
could be difficult and costly. Taichi Sakaiya, Economic Planning Agency director, cautioned
that consumers could simply use the certificates to buy something they already intended to
purchase, and then save their own money. And private economists say that preventing a black
market for the vouchers from developing could also be difficult.

Do you mean your entire investment is in this area? If your so sure they will go up why not put the bulk of your investment in physical and buy some out of the money calls on either physical or calls of the equities you now own.

If the pm equities tank with other equities you've lost nothing more than the costs of the options, *and* you still have the physical.

There are many big players out there, in possesion of much information that we lack. I wouldn't count on outsmarting central banks-just yet. If the choice occurs between precious metals and our equities markets, those demons will stop at nothing to try to prevent it.

FWIW Gold and oil's dismal performance doesn't harbour well
for the big capitalized gold stocks NEM,PDG.
A few Puts on those high flyers will adequately protect your wallet.
Silver has broken down and will touch 4.20 with Platinum 420.
Gold has support at 285 .It is going to be interesting to
see if it is going to hold as we got a clear sell signal for
the oil index. The stockmarket will trace a bearmarket rally,
LEH was very impressive from 23 to 32 ,this in light of all
the turnmoil with the hedge funds.They will come clean lower
bonds and lower gold prices will do the trick.
The commodities will get trounced and a runaway deflation
could be a real possibility.
Fire begets fire.

Wall Street Journal

By DANIEL PIPES

The clash between Iran and the Afghan Taliban isn't the only war on the Middle East horizon.
Ten thousand Turkish troops have moved to the Syrian border and have been prohibited from
taking leave. The Turkish air force is on red alert. And Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has
spent the week shuttling between Ankara and Damascus.

The origins of the conflict lie in several Syrian resentments and ambitions toward Turkey. In
1939, on the eve of World War II, the French imperial power in Damascus handed over a
province of Syria to the Turks; to this day, maps on Syrian television show Turkey's Hatay
Province as part of Syria. Then there is the ever-sensitive issue of water, with the Syrians
demanding an increased allotment from the Euphrates River. Finally, Damascus objects to
Turkey's foreign links. In the old days, it was the membership in NATO. Now, flourishing
military, commercial and cultural ties between Turkey and Israel perturb the Syrians even more.

Such grievances prompted Damascus, starting in the mid-1980s, to sponsor a range of terrorist
groups, one of which remains very much in business. Known by its initials PKK, the Kurdistan
Workers' Party has killed some 30,000 Turks in the pursuit of a breakaway Kurdish state.

Over the years, Turks have become ever more frustrated by their inability to get the Syrians to
stop supporting the PKK. Particularly galling is the fact that the PKK's leader, Abdullah
Ocalan, lives openly in Damascus, giving interviews and allowing himself to be photographed.
Nonetheless, the Syrian regime insouciantly denies his presence.

Since mid-September, Turkish leaders have adopted a new, harsh tone with Syria. Last Friday
the Turkish chief of staff, Huseyin Kivrikoglu, said relations with Damascus had already
become an "undeclared war." President Suleyman Demirel announced that "we are losing our
patience and we retain the right to retaliate against Syria." Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz accused
Syria of being "the headquarters of terrorism in the Middle East" and reportedly warned
Damascus that the Turkish army is on standby, "awaiting orders" to attack.

Newspapers bristle with talk of military plans. A leading daily announced that the army's plans
begin with air strikes on Syrian military airports as well as radar and missile installations; a
land-based incursion could be considered later on. Another newspaper predicted that Turkish
planes could reach the terrorist camps in Lebanon in a half-hour.

Additional developments enhance the sense of crisis. The volume of trade between the two
countries is falling rapidly. In Syria, truckers report tanks moving toward the border. Another
10,000 Turkish soldiers, with air backing, recently entered northern Iraq to strike at PKK bases.

Why is this happening now? For one thing, standing up to the PKK's sponsors plays well
within Turkey and unites an otherwise fractured country. Foreign developments also help
explain the timing. Most important is the startling growth in alliances across the Middle East. On
one side, Turkey and Israel have formed a hard kernel of democratic and pro-Western states,
with Jordan and others sometimes joining them. On the other side, the many states with a
grievance against Turkey or Israel have joined forces, including Greece, Greek Cyprus, Syria
and Iran.

The formation of these blocs leads to an intermeshing of once-separate crises, such as the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the Cypriot problem, the PKK assault on Turkey and the Golan
Heights issue. For example, Ankara's tough policies toward Syria are almost certainly affected
by the absence of Syrian-Israeli negotiations over the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, the Russians
next month plan a shipment of surface-to-air missiles to Greek Cyprus, which has recently
developed close ties with Syria.

Is war in the offing? Heated rhetoric across the Turkish-Syrian border has been heard often
before and never led to a clash of armies. Still, the combination of Syrian aggressiveness and
Turkish frustration could be deadly. And the specificity of the Turkish demands--drop the claim
to Turkish territory; close down PKK camps; extradite Mr. Ocalan--makes this crisis unlike
previous ones.

Should these demands go unmet and Turkey resort to military means, it will most probably
begin with air raids. If Syrian policy remains unchanged, Turkish ground forces would
probably enter Syrian territory and not meet much resistance. Not only are Turkish troops better
trained, but the Syrian forces are mostly at the opposite end of the country, either facing Israel or
stationed in Lebanon. A former U.S. ambassador to Damascus exaggerates only slightly when
he observes that "the only thing that would delay the Turks in an invasion of Syria would be the
need to stop and drink tea."

Perhaps they would trade. I have some genuine seeds from the hanging gardens of Babylon, lets see, what else..oh yeah, a signed 9 X 10 glossy of the Colossus of Rhodes, a first edition, ( also signed ) from the library of Alexandra, ( it's rather boring, I didn't know he was interested in early American horticulture ) ..hummm..oh!, an earlier shroud owned by Mrs. Turin herself! And the keel board of the ark of the covenant. Just a small piece, I couldn't afford to buy all of it.

Hey, you know, I was just thinking..maybe if we bought ALL the splinters of the cross, we could reassemble it and OWN the WHOLE cross- kinda like the Hunt brothers. Wow, my head's spinning now..just think of the consession fees you could charge for that...I'm calling my broker first thing Monday morning to check into the Jerusulem rental market. You know, on the other hand, If we bought ALL of the Moon rocks, we could reassemb...

Good night all.