Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:01 - ID#43460)
RJ, here's a start:
Here is a link to one of the major retail jewelry tool suppliers. With about ten bucks worth of wax, and a similar investment in wax tools you are well on your way to making your own carvings. You'll just have to find someone who'll cast your stuff and you're on the way!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:02 - ID#350145)
all re hecla
i think if you look back a couple of weeks ago when we had the gold and silver wash out hecla and coeur were at these same prices. i think this is just a revisiting of that silver proxy relationship - plus some tax loss selling. i love coeur and hecla at these prices. coeur has always struck me as a sober company with good properties, management and balance sheet and hecla also has good properties plus 30% of greenscreek which is like king soloman's mine. greenscreek is a zinc/lead mine that has gold credits around .16 to .20 and silver that runs, i think, 27 oz per ton ( a geologist friend of mine was one of the first in there and he said the silver is often in large clumps ) . and the potential for new ore should outlast us all. but maybe there is something i don't know.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:03 - ID#93127)
gagnrad-- That is a stunning piece.

How fortunate you are to have something beautiful as the end product of your stress reduction regime! {:- )

ALL@Waiting.For.Gold Austria 1 oz ECU  198.25 Under bullion coins...mmmmm

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:04 - ID#412172)
RJ and Platinum
I know PL is dear to your heart, or your tradin' heart anyway. When it puts a bottom in, what would be the best way to take advantage of that situation? Care to hazard strike and expirations that might be profitable? ( Your wild guesses no doubt much better than my WAG ) .
Is it true that you now like gold more than PL. Could you elucidate on that?
Finally, just ignore anyone here that irritates you, except 'MOI' of course!

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:14 - ID#259284)
To RJ: You weren't 404'd from K2. It would be impossible to get thrown out of K2 while remaining on K1. As I've said before the rules on K2 aren't enforced to the degree they are on K1, so use it as an opportunity to "take it outside" if you so desire. RJ, you're password is now fully functional on K2. I just tested it myself to be sure. So if you want to spend your literary talent on Farfel instead of the markets do it there please. Same goes for Farfel but he's aware already. Remeber, this is a golf discussion group, not the Jerry Springer show.

Another System Test :
Last week I had asked everyone to try a link on our new server and report any problems. It worked well and once again I'd like to ask for some assistance by doing one more test before we put it on line. Thursday, Oct 15, 1998 I'd like everyone to to click on the same URL which I'll post again later. This time though it has to be done between 6:30 PM and 6:35 PM New York Time to really test the load. Everyone's efforts to help us try and crash our new server will be much appreciated.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:18 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

Looks like a bottom is in.
Accumulation on the rise?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:26 - ID#93127)
Smiles, hugs at first talks in five years
Hong Kong Standard, Oct 15 1998

CROSS-STRAITS talks resumed yesterday after a lapse of five years and ran straight into disagreement on how to go forward. But broad smiles remained on the faces of Beijing's top negotiator Wang Daohan and his Taipei counterpart Koo Chen-fu throughout a day of carefully nuanced dialogue and socialising.

China's going to get it all together. Sooner rather than later. And then what"

Look at the Oriental Block ( 594.9 bn )
The European Block ( 197.8 bn )
and what's left? The US ( 72.9 bn ) and Brazil ( 71.5 bn 'that was' ) .

BOY are those people holding a LOT OF DEBT! That means we have them
right were we want them, right? {:- ( ( ( (

Foreign Currency Reserves Ranking Top 10

( 1 ) At the end of Aug 1998, Japan||209.3 bn USD
( 2 ) At the end of Jul 1998,,China||140.6 bn USD
( 3 ) At the end of Aug, 1998,,, HK||92.1 bn USD
( 4 ) At the end of Jul 1998,Taiwan||83.6 bn USD
( 5 ) At the end of Jul 1998,German||83.5 bn USD
( 6 ) At the end of Jul 1998,,,,,US||72.9 bn USD
( 7 ) At the end of May 1998,Brazil||71.5 bn USD
( 8 ) At the end of Jul, 1998,Snpre||69.3 bn USD
( 9 ) At the end of Jul 1998,,Spain||68.7 bn USD
( 10 ) At the end of Jul 1998,Italy||45.6 bn USD

Goodnight all.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:30 - ID#411320)
@bcee my strategy is the same
Buy puts on dow and calls in gold with $300.00 strike price. load
up on minning shares drooy and gsr...mix well let simmer for a couple of week. remember you ask ol rich.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:32 - ID#432130)
Hey Bart, if you're reading this...)
...Thanks for this site : )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:34 - ID#286230)
Morbid Question
Anyone have any data on the purchasing of gold by individuals during recessions?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:34 - ID#25490)

I have just seen a request from someone asking me to interpret or expand on a Nostradamus quatrain Quatrain 8,28. I have had a copy of this quatrain for a long time, together with an "explanation" that I found at the same time. Because you asked for it, I shall post it.

Before I do, I hope you will allow me a brief editorial ( auratorial ) comment about the enigmatic texts of Nostradamus. IMHO there is not one word of truth/prophecy/fortune in the verses he wrote. All the meaning has been interpreted in the light of a variety of "code-cracking" teachniques. SUch techniques include slicing a line or a word from one quatrain to "interpret" a line or a word in another quatrain.

Nostradamus' poems ( I wish I could read old Norman French like some of my family ) in their sliced and diced modern versions are like Rorschach ink blots. You can see what you want, and interpret them any way you choose.

Personally, I think the pursuit of meaning in Nostradamus is a fatuous exercise, far more rewarding to write one's own poetry,yes?

Anyway, as I was asked, here's a snippet of Nostradamus:


"Les simulacres d'or & argent enflez,
Qu'apres le rapt au lac furent gettez
Au desouvert estaincts tous & troublez.
Au marbre script prescript intergetez."

"The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
scrips and bonds will be wiped out."
Quatrain 8,28 from Nostradamus-


Paper gold such as is traded in place of real gold for convenience, which has tempted the gold bankers into "fractional reserve" practices, so that more gold is traded than can actually be delivered, will be found worthless, since gold will trade no more in that form. The certificates might as well be tossed aside as pebbles in the lake. The coming inflation will exhaust the taxpayers' ability to service the national debt, and all savings will be dissipated by the inflation. Panic selling of equities and bonds will wipe out most of the gains made by the bull market.


I still prefer the Bard's wisdom:

To gild refined gold, to paint the lily,
To throw a perfume on the violet,
To smooth the ice, or add another hue
Unto the rainbow, or with taper-light
To seek the beauteous eye of heaven to garnish,
Is wasteful and ridiculous excess.

William Shakespeare

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:42 - ID#25490)
Well, Didn't I say Bart would decend from above and post on 15 October?
This Cargo Cult of goldbuggery now has a prophet a seer, one of golden vision who accurately predicted the future. No mystical verses requiring a priesthood to interpret ( like T/A ) No strange incantations ( IDCIBM ) , just plain Ingrish:

It will soon be time to reveal, that which has not yet been revealed, in the meantime, goldbugs:

Go Golf!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:47 - ID#344326)
The Kitco Club needs a new cheer, I think we have one
Go Golf! Surely THIS is the ultimate sign that the new gold bull has begun.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:50 - ID#247190)
To Mike Shellar or anyone
You and someone else were discussing a week or so ago that aides in either Africa or a city in Africa was going to affect the population growth to 0 in a few years. Was this a newspiece or Where may I ask did you obtain this information that I could check it out also? Thanks. Maybe John Disney would know more about it. If you're out there tonite, would appreciatte any info you could provide.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:53 - ID#286230)
Hedge funds join tulip bulbs as faded mania
Hedge funds join tulip bulbs as faded mania

Wednesday, October 14, 1998

Once enough time has passed to ease the pain, financial historians may
look back at hedge funds with the same nostalgia accorded to financial
manias such as tulip bulbs, Japanese real estate and Marxism.

And future generations will wonder, what were we thinking?

The carnage that has resulted as so-called hedge funds were forced to
unwind positions and scale back borrowing is staggering. In a report
yesterday, Nesbitt Burns chief economist Sherry Cooper and
colleagues said: "The large and sudden shifts in market sentiment over
the past week have been spectacular, if not unprecedented."

What has become obvious is that several huge hedge funds -- which
supposedly eliminated market risk through the application of computer
analysis and other magic -- were actually speculative punts on the
market, with enormous exposure to certain risks. As one fund
manager put it yesterday: "Hedges work in backyards, not in the

Anyone holding bonds last week has the scars to prove what happens
when a great many hedge fund managers employ the same strategy,
then abandon ship at the same time.

The problem started in Japan, where hedge funds had added to their
leverage by playing the local bond market. Hedge funds could borrow
Japanese bonds, sell them, then convert the proceeds of the sale from
yen to U.S. dollars, then reinvest the cash they raised.

The hedge fund would only be on the hook for two things: the minimal
interest payments on the Japanese debt ( 10-year Japanese bonds
bonds pay 0.75 per cent interest, a tribute to the country's economic
woes ) and the eventual replacement of the Japanese bonds.

This was a wonderful trade, as long as the Japanese yen didn't rise in
relation to the U.S. dollar. Guess what happened last week. Led by
beleaguered Long-Term Capital Management, hedge funds started to
unwind their short positions, which fuelled buying of the yen and led to
what Ms. Cooper called "an awesome collapse . . . the most vicious
decline in the U.S. dollar in 25 years." New York-based hedge fund
Tiger Management lost $2-billion ( U.S. ) in one day last week on this

Hedge funds also liquidated holdings of long-term U.S. government
bonds last week as they struggled to cover losses, carpet-bombing the
market with supply and destroying prices in what has traditionally been
the safest of havens.

All of this bad news from highly secretive hedge funds is now in the
public realm, which invites a bit of contrarian thinking. First off, most
bankers have now likely come to grips with their hedge fund exposure;
borrowing limits will be slashed and irrational lending will stop. The
funds themselves have been forced to unwind their most troublesome
positions, so with luck the worst market gyrations have played out.
Finally, the mainstream media is now writing stories on hedge funds, a
sure sign that the fad has had its day.
When your mandate is building a dominant global dealer, a market
downturn doesn't bring hiring to a halt.

After an exhaustive search, Morgan Stanley grabbed
telecommunications analyst Greg MacDonald last week from Gordon
Capital, which was sold last month to HSBC Securities. The
top-ranked stock picker will be moving to Manhattan, and his
coverage of Canadian companies will be blended with six other telco
analysts in New York, Europe and Asia.
Investment bankers at Nesbitt Burns have traditionally kept busy
helping troubled companies restructure right through the business
cycle, but let's face it, this is beginning to look like an opportune time
to muscle up in the sector.

Barry Goldberg, a leading name among restructuring lawyers during
stints at Heenan Blaikie and Osler Hoskin & Harcourt, joined the
investment dealer last week. Few introductions will be needed; in
recent years, Mr. Goldberg worked with companies such as
Bramalea, Cadillac Fairview and Beatrice Foods, restructurings in
which sightings of Nesbitt Burns bankers were commonplace.
As ScotiaMcLeod's investment bankers crank up the road shows on
the only deal in the works -- a $300-million offering for Husky
Injection -- they are also welcoming a new player to the team.

Steve Burleton has joined the industrial products group in corporate
finance after working in equity syndication at Nesbitt Burns. He arrives
just in time to take that coveted spot talking up Husky to investors in
the Prairie provinces, which were just hit with the season's first

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:54 - ID#237299)
And! the secret password, so that all Kitcoites might recocnize
their brethren on the street. A knowing look..and a nod..the wisperd secret word: golf. known only by true initiates and illuminate.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 00:56 - ID#7285)
``You've got the possibility of something very nasty, but nobody is taking it lightly,'' said one foreign economist in Tokyo. ``When you're dealing with the Big Guys -- Europe and the
United States -- these are not emerging economies and they have functioning central banks, functioning credit markets and functioning fiscal policies -- that is the difference.''

(Thu Oct 15 1998 01:26 - ID#78136)
gold talk
My broker at Wood Gundy today sent me a promotional
letter on the benefits of gold. I presume that
this is a standard mailout that WG sent to all
their clients. Interesting they are starting to
push this market. A year ago, this same broker
was talking me out of gold purchases. WG is activeyly
advertising for brokers in Alberta, while Merrill
Lynch lays off 3,400. Go figure.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 01:29 - ID#285392)
Further to gagnrad comments on jewellery
If you wish to cast your own jewellery you can do so by following gagnrads method of making you own model or you can do as the Jewellers do and buy the pre-cast wax models of rings, medallians, pendants etc. If you contact a jewellery supply house they will have cataloges of both equipment and hundreds of pre made wax models that you can cast. I have done this and it is very interesting and certainly saves money. wax rings for example cost from $1 to $5 dollars and you can cast them out of gold, silver or brass and electro-plate them. Habsons is supply house in Seattle that could help you out.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 01:32 - ID#25490)
I'm catching up on my reading of "last night's" posts, truly, I did not know we were all quoting Shakespeare!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 01:57 - ID#153110)
@Truth & Consequences
All that is good and true deserveth the name of golden. But how many are the names for the evil and false ?

Now, though it may be hard to accept that American government has degenerated by degrees to the point where all is lies, deception, and deceit, it is nevertheless how it is. This condition is the inevitable consequence of government by war powers, force and fraud being cardinal in war in the words of Hobbes.

Someone posted a piece of a father and Clintoneque son. If you knew enough law, though, you could read Lincoln and FDR and Nixon and find deception fully the equal of Clinton's. And the same in the Acts of Congress.

The Law must and has always held that fraud vitiates all and the US Supreme Court has applied the rule in many cases, among them The Amisted from which I have quoted. But, governing by war powers necessarily implies a legal sanction for fraud and force. And, thus, it is a true and good saying that the government we have is literally against the Law.

It has taken quite a while for this germ to infect fully the body politic, but now the fullness of consequences seems approaching. Confusion and destruction lie in the path of the unrighteous, their weights and measures are false and cheating, their reports and accounts are empty and contrived, their deaths are strange, and the fruit of their harvest is bitter. Among them gold alone remains uncorrupted.

Perhaps this boom in sales of gold coins is merely a satisfying of hunger for the good and the true, the instinct of the people for self-preservation, a freshet preceding a hurricane.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:00 - ID#411259)
..... Thanks Bart .....

As recently as a month ago, I still got the "Bad Password" screen whenever I tried to post on K2. I have not tried since then, but I have done little posting of any sort. Since this bad password screen appeared shortly after an argument with the F entity, and right after he started posting on K2, I assumed it was intended, and I was not going to argue with your decision. I posted here, that rather than the F spot being back, I would henceforth do all my posting on K2. It was right after that that my password would not work; I made no changes to the configuration of my computer during that time, so I thought the 404 had spoken its harsh edict. ( Not permanently harsh, it seems ) . I received an e-mail from another poster recently who said they had a spot-o-trouble around that same time. This poster's solution was to reregister with the same handle, and the problem was solved. I tried this also, but I got a message that told me the handle was already in use and it would not accept RJ.

What would cause a "Bad Password" message? My cookies were on and the K1 post screen would pop up with my name and password already there. I tried to post on K2 on numerous occasions and each time ( after that last row with the big F ) , I got the bad password screen. When I tried to post, RJ, and my password, were already on the post screen, just like K1. This cannot be a case of my mis-typing my password, it was the same as K1; already there on the screen. Still I got the bad password rejection. What would cause this? The Bad Password screen says it makes a log of any attempt to post without an authorized password and that the attempt to post is being logged with my ISP info. This was all around the start of August, so you can see the times I tried to post on K2 and could not.

That the F spot is back is your prerogative as owner of the site. Perhaps he could refrain from the direct and indirect attacks on me and others. When he goes on a rant about "Ideological Gold Shorts" and I am the only person on the site discussing the shorting of gold, it is obvious he is trying to undermine my own efforts. This kind of talk is not heard from me, apart from the occasion frustration at the "goldbug" mentality, which I define as being permanently bullish regardless of market direction or outlook. These indirect attacks muddy the waters and, I believe, are intended to do so. Perhaps some word from you regarding this type of behavior?

I have, on three occasions ceased all posts and references to the F spot. On one occasion, I posted a heartfelt and eloquent apology to the fellow. All here know how his reply was to further insult. In all three instances, it was the F entity who, without provocation or warrant, began his attacks on me once again. Not replying to the fellow has not worked in the past and I have doubts that it will work this time. I do have hope that his meandering ill humor does not direct itself to me again; he is an unpleasant fellow indeedy. Would you also prefer that others do not re-post any K2 stuff here? Let K2 stay K2, yes?

Am I allowed to comment on the content of the F thigie's posts? Can I feel comfortable in respectfully discussing the merits of an idea or a position without the fear that the big F will once again foam at the mouth and descend on us all like a gargoyle suddenly and ravenously come to life?

If someone makes a grievous error in market facts, should a poster correct this information for the benefit of the legions of lurkers out there who may believe that the foolish information is true and correct? I am not talking about opinions here, but rather fundamental errors Like short squeezes and limit moves? Or would you prefer that this information stays uncorrected and the masses are fed a wrong set of facts?

I have tried, and to a large extent succeeded, in keeping arguments off K1. But this fellow comes here with a plethora of fresh insults made against us this very week. Now, with the exact same mind bend ( he could not have changed his character in a day ) he appears on this site. Can I be blamed for being offended by the fellow? Can I expect him to act in a way he has never demonstrated the ability for? The bad words you read here were written by him, not me. I suspect, when the rock is lifted, it will be the same fellow peering out from underneath.

If you are ever displeased with anything I write, please let me know and I will amend my behavior. One favor though, could you please verify that LGB, Realistic, and RJ are all different people? I know you did this once in the past regarding hepcat. You did not tell us who he was ( although we found out anyway ) but you did tell us who he wasn't.

Thanks for the speedier access. I remember you posted about a month ago that you were switching ISPs in mid October. Is this why my blazing fast computer can now access Kitco with blazing fast speed? You know I am a firm supporter of this site and have tried to offer a voice of reason and balance and occasional silliness to break up the tension. Many here, who I have never spoken to personally have posted that my information has helped them avoid losses and some have said they made money by following my reasoning. I have written of the 400 plus e-mails from lurkers which I have received. The number is now nearly 600. The overwhelming majority agree with my public service work regarding the F entity. I understand that you have advertisers who would not wish to share pages with ugly words. That is the most valid reason of all to keep things on an even keel here..

I think this is the first time you ever addressed me publicly and your requests are entirely reasonable. This is your house, and I appreciate the opportunity to kick of the shoes and run around a bit and dig my toes in the sand - or is it gold dust? I have looked at other sites and they are pale by comparison. I will stick to market analysis and silliness and leave animus aside. I hope that others are capable of the same, but only time and experience will tell that tale, Until then, and always:

I will do as you ask.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:12 - ID#280222)
SHAREFIN: That swing chart bodes no cheer for Wall Street. Yet, Mike is
right about the put/call ratio, how can so many be so right?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:16 - ID#411259)
..... Salty .....

They were quoting the Bard
I was quoting a fay prince
Who could not make up his mind


(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:28 - ID#280222)
OK, Kitcodians (go golf!)
What momentous event happened April 2, 1998????

(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:30 - ID#25490)
Quoth he

"Foul cankering rust the hidden treasure frets,
But gold that's put to use more gold begets."
William Shakespeare


May you always put your gold to use.

lefty kiwi
(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:48 - ID#32176)
gold and golf my two favourites .....
well almost

I have been on Jury duty for past four days
a " sexual " assault case , of a minor kind
most astounding thing was everyone like Bill Clinton had selective amnesia
Perhaps its contagious and/or endemic

go goldf

Strad Master
(Thu Oct 15 1998 02:59 - ID#250297)
Nikkei downdate
ALL: Nikkei is down below 13000 again. Actually 12995.37. I seem to remember talk about how if the Nikkei broke 14000 all hell would break loose to the downside. What happened? It's popping around between the low 13's and the high 12's with no nosedive in sight. Shows what technical analysis is good for...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:02 - ID#25490)
good as gold.
lefty kiwi

JM said they've run out of 10, 5 & 2 oz bars. Have you been buying them? :- )

Got to wait to get a shipment from stralia!

Every day I hear "good as gold" meaning "OK" roundabout, you too?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:16 - ID#341227)
@BART...I don't know if it will ever end...
As I have said to you in the past, there is intense conflict between gold exponents and gold antagonists on this forum.

Gold antagonism has dominated the psychology of KITCO and many other gold forums for many years. Essentially, those who disparage gold are also those who extoll the benefits of today's equities and bonds hyper-bubble. They are the ones declaring that DOW 10,000 is inevitable. In many cases, they are also antagonistic to gold since they believe that
the yellow metal siphons investment monies away from competitive metals ( such as platinum and silver ) . Most gold antagonists are also major white metals exponents too. They see gold advocacy as a detriment to the value of their favored white metals.

ALthough there are many facile, dexterous exponents for gold's cause besides myself, it seems that many of them have been either too quiet or too timid historically in confronting the salient logical deficits of the anti-gold group.

You know as much as I that, today, perspective determines a good's value in the short to medium term. Change the perspective and you change the value of the good. So, I am always fighting to change the perspective. On that basis, I first posted on this forum.

I fight against the slings and arrows of vehement gold antagonism as I write daily to change the negative perspective of gold's value. I do not shun the fight no matter how vituperative the opponents may be. As an Ivy League graduate, I have a way with words and am a worthy gladiator in the cause. So, certain posters single me out for derision, not because I am really such a horrible fellow but because I am a dangerous opponent in their minds. I must be crushed or the Great Gold Revolt against the global financial status quo might succeed.

We've had this discussion before in one form or another but I thought I would reiterate my philosophy on the matter.

Now on to other issues.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:23 - ID#341227)
@TVX only gold stock comment for the night....
It seems that yesterday's Cassandra decision is good for TVX. Nothing causes a stock to depreciate more than uncertainty.

Now, the uncertainty is removed and the market can discard the worst case scenario.

In the minds of some nervous gold analysts, the worst case scenario had TVX losing the ENTIRE Greek mine to the Alpha group.

Although the decision to turn over 12 per cent of Cassandra to Alpha ( with an option for them to obtain another 12 ) is NOT a categorical victory, nevertheless it remains a victory...and the uncertainty is over.

Except for this uncertainty overhang, I think TVX would trade around 4.00 to 5.00 today, especially relative to several other senior producers current valuations.

Aside from being a notable gold producer, it is also one of the senior silver producers in the a time when silver seems on the cusp of a price explosion.

Anyway, them's my thoughts.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:27 - ID#431366)
Farfel - my prognosis for Gold is bad
And not because I feel that bonds and stocks are good - for my prognosis for them is worse. Where we are headed is either
1 ) Into an age of cybermoney where Gold & cash have no monetary role and the mark of the beast is on everyone ( hopefully Y2K derails all this )
2 ) back to barter with food, labor and useful items ( which Gold is not )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:52 - ID#341227)'re not alone in your perspective...
...however, I would suggest that floating currencies have proven to be a complete failure.

By the same token, we cannot return to the old gold standard of yore.

SO, I foresee a hybrid -- a compromise between paper ( cyber-bits ) and gold -- that provides a valuable standard constraining governments from creating vast quantities of currency out of thin air.

Some kind of inexorable force must exist to preclude governments from generating unearned wealth whenever they desire.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 03:59 - ID#284255)
Actually by my reading of the swing we're about to enter a bullish period.
Be it that the swing turns up then the markets should advance higher.

That's unless they go sideways.

When thes wing crosses over at the top of its cycle is when I get most bearish.

I'm still sitting in the indecision phase. ^o-o^

The End of the World as We Know It
Where Is Investigative Journalism When You Need It?
Congress Flexes Its Y2K Muscle
Collaboration Challenge of the Millennium Bug
Bloomberg News Services is reporting that Al Gore has asked the
telecomm unit of the United Nations to help head off widespread
computer failures that could cause bank runs or social chaos in
countries around the world.

He is quoted as saying: "We must ensure that the international system
is ready for the Year 2000 -- because one weak link in the system will
hurt us all."

The story goes on to say that the UN's director of information
technology, Joyce Amenta, has already said governments and companies
in India, China and Eastern Europe simply won't be ready. That is,
unless they "attack the problem" -- a vague request at the very least.
I suppose anybody can claim they are "attacking the problem." "Yes sir!
We're attacking the problem!" "Good, just keep on attacking and we
will beat this thing..."

But Amenta goes on to say the things that Gore ( so far ) hasn't: that
these countries have "insufficient resources to fix the Year 2000
problem..." and that failure to do so could cause bank panics, disrupt
trade and cause "civil unrest."

And finally the story quotes a Gartner Group conclusion that claims
1/3 of all nations won't be ready for Year 2000. A World Bank study
says that only 10 percent of nations even have a government-wide Year
2000 program.

You know, people like myself and Gary North have been called
"whackos" for saying what Al Gore and Joyce Amenta just said. It's
always interesting how the fringe becomes mainstream as people wake up
to the realities of Y2K. A year from now, even the mainstream press
will be warning people to stock up on water -- a concept that
previously earned you raised eyebrows... or perhaps even accusations
of "starting a riot!"

Most of those subscribed to this list are WAY ahead of the game --
you're already aware of the potential severity of the Y2K problem, and
you're either making preparations now or you're planning to soon. Good
for you! The one thing I look forward to each day is sharing Y2K
information with you, because 99% of the folks on this list are highly
intelligent, open-minded yet appropriately skeptical, extremely
capable people. The responses and suggestions I receive on a daily
basis demonstrate the intelligence and thoughtfulness of this group.
And that shouldn't be surprising, either, because only the brighest
people understand Y2K early in the game. Eventually everyone will get
it, but those people who are a little slower won't grasp the true
consequences of Y2K until it's too late to purchase supplies.

Y2KSUPPLY.COM applauds Al Gore for any action he takes to help bring
awareness of the severity of this problem to the people of the world.
While Gore is now "too little, too late," at least he's saying
something. And he's right, of course, that failure to solve this
problem could hurt us all. Perhaps "hurt" isn't even the right word.
"Severely damage" would be more accurate.

For obvious reasons, Gore is going to soften his words on this
subject, but still, what he said yesterday is a great improvement from
the ridiculous position of Bill Clinton earlier this year where he
claimed Y2K would be nothing more than a series of "minor annoyances."
On the Republican side, Rush Limbaugh has apparently declared Y2K to
be a "hoax" -- a statement that reveals his near-total ignorance when
it comes to computers. As I explained to one subscriber, Rush knows
politics, but I wouldn't go to him for brain surgery or Y2K

Sooner or later though, both Bill Clinton and Rush Limbaugh will wake
up to Y2K reality. That will happen in 1999.

One of the most popular arguments put forth by Y2K naysayers is that
the United States is way ahead of the game and we'll be done in plenty
of time. Even if that were true, the sad state of Y2K repairs around
the world would still severly harm the United States economy. Why?
Because we depend on other countries. We are economically and
financially tied to other countries -- some of which are seriously
behind schedule in their Y2K repairs and represent a huge economic
risk to the United States.

Take China for example. They're on the list as one of the top three
who simply won't be ready for Year 2000. And yet China provides all
kinds of trading opportunities to the United States. So many, in fact,
that after campaigning on a "tough on China" agenda that promised to
yank MFN status ( Most-Favored Nation ) because of China's poor human
rights standard, Clinton has continued to grant China MFN status ( and
Congress has continued to OK it ) to this Communist regime, year after
year. You get the picture: money is more important than human rights
to the people in Washington, so China stays the #1 trading partner.

That demonstrates just how important trade with China has become. Now
fast forward to 2000. China finds itself in a widespread banking panic,
a government computer failure, uprisings in Hong Kong, a non-working
telecommunications system and widespread power outages. But guess what
works? The military. With the potential to raise a 100 million-person
Army, and arm them with Y2K-compliant weapons ( rifles and grenades
don't need software ) , China may experience massive internal or
external upheavals due to military conquest. Internally, the military
might choose to take over the Chinese government. Externally, they
might choose to invade Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Japan or even perhaps
Malaysia. If their military can operate on World War II-class
equipment and take advantage of countries that find themselves in Y2K
chaos, they could actually start World War III. The mass will more
than make up for the lack of technology.

Back to the point at hand: China is an important trading partner, and
the fact that they are simply not going to finish Y2K repairs in time
threatens the U.S. economy in more ways than most people are willing
to admit.

China is just one example: the United States actually depends on the
exchange of goods, services and information with dozens of nations.
When these nations find themselves out of time on the Y2K issue, they
are going to experience enormous problems. Bank runs is a given,
mostly due to the fact that bank runs are fairly common in some
countries already, simply due to the economic crisis now unfolding
around the world. Trade with these countries will be almost impossible.
Communications with these countries will be compromised. Moving money
to and from their banks will be difficult, at best. All these things
are necessary for trade, and all are threatened by Y2K repairs.

The worst threat, in my opinion, is that bank runs overseas would
spread to the United States. There's a logical reason for this to
occur: it's not just psychology and it's not just some self-fulfilling
prophecy. There are REAL reasons why this is rational. Many U.S. banks
are heavily invested in foreign banks. Just today, CNNFN ran a story
with a headline, "BankAmerica 3Q Collapses..." This refers to their
$400M loss in a hedge fund. These hedge fund losses are primarily due
to high-risk investments in Russia and Asia, investments that are
going to continue to lose money. If bank panics begin in these
countries, their banks will be wiped out and *enormous* losses will
cascade into the U.S. banking system. The largest banks will be hit
the hardest because they have more international exposure. More big
Japanese banks will fall quickly, and one of their last acts will be
to offload billions in U.S. stock, bonds, and T-Bills, a desperate
move that will mount further losses in U.S. banks and mutual funds.

When American banking customers see this, the reasonable action to
take is to go down to your bank and withdraw a little cash, just in
case. Across the country, people will begin doing this. The demand
pressures on cash will mount, and if news about widespread bank
withdrawals makes the national networks, the panic will begin. Slowly
at first, it will grow to a tidal wave of withdraw requests. The Fed
and the FDIC will attempt to assure everyone that everything is fine
-- right up to their very last dollar. And then everything won't be

But none of this is guaranteed to happen. When fighting wildfires,
smoke jumpers use a series of controlled burns to destroy brush fuel
and hopefully create in impassable barrier for the approaching fire.
Bank runs could potentially be stopped by some barriers, too:

* Clinton could assure the nation that banks are fundamentally sound
and appeal to them to not take out their cash ( would the people
believe him? )

* Clinton could order banks to limit withdrawals to $50 / day /
person ( would this create further panic? )

* The Fed could move to stock banks with massive amounts of
freshly-printed currency ( they're doing this now, but will it be
enough? )

* Banks could begin, right now, increasing their reserves in order to
handle increased withdrawals ( but that would cut into their profits )

* The government could outlaw cash and require all citizens to
convert to electronic money ( the Big Brother money theory... )

* Clinton could order the news media to report no negative news about
Y2K ( the media hate to be told what to do )

Each of these is a realistic course of action if the threat to the
United States economy is large enough. Currently, Clinton does have
the authority to put those banking restrictions in place. In fact,
under various Executive Orders, all bank deposits can actually be
seized in the case of a "national emergency." These are regulations
already on the books. They're not well-publicized, but they've existed
for decades.

Will Y2K be considered a national emergency? Only as a last resort, I
think. Any move to seize the bank deposits of American citizens would
be extremely risky due to the immediate public backlash. People won't
be happy when they lose their money. Therefore, we're *not* predicting
this would happen, but the possibility still exists.

It will be interesting to watch how other countries handle Y2K. If
they stay calm, we will stay calm. If they panic, the panic will
likely spread to our shores. In 1999, we'll watch for news from
Thailand, Indonesia, China, Japan, Europe, Russian, Canada, Australia
and South America. If anything happens that will have an impact on Y2K,
we'll share it right here.

- Webmaster

Link to story about Gore:

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:00 - ID#153110)
@Gold is Capital. And that is always useful
e'en among commies. Witness the reds in China.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Weds 14 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate-0.52---------------1.42-------------1.58-----------------1.99
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( - 0.04 ) ------- ( + 0.06 ) ------------ ( + 0.01 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate--4.50--------------3.75--------------2.75-----------------2.25
Silver Lease Rate-0.91--------------1.59--------------2.41-----------------2.69
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.30 ) -------- ( - 0.40 ) ------ ( - 0.30 ) ----------- ( - 0.15 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:02 - ID#284255)
Pessimism despite official China's very public attack on Y2K bug

Got Gold, grub, guns???

Physical - not notational paper?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:09 - ID#153110)
@Nothing stops robbery but force.
Nothing stops slavery but force. Not some impersonal, theoretical force from beyond, but the force exerted by righteous men united to establish justice and insure domestic tranquillity.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:17 - ID#25490)
funny you should say that about China, I've just been reviewing the WGC site archives ( I've lost a great swag of archived info ) and came across this morsel written in "Summer" 1997

"China shows excellent long-term potential for growth in gold demand. Mainland Chinese have bought more than 200 metric tons of gold every year for the past five years."

The Chinese goldmines are, producing 160 tonnes a year. Pretty soon it adds up to a respectable gold hoard.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:18 - ID#258195)
For Nick@C
Nick -- I must apologise, most sincerely, for my failure to respond to your kind remarks and request further information in your post of 04:34 yesterday. I am at fault in that I failed to scan thoroughly the posts between 04:30 and 13:17 when I was briefly on-line again.
I am giving some thought as to how best to respond to you, and will then be in touch again. May I, though, draw your attention to Saturday mornings at 10:00 Kitco time when I give an update on the True Gold closing prices for the week and try to add a sentence or two about the significance, as I see it, of the previous week's moves. Meanwhile do please construct for yourself the chart of the Monthly Average of the True Gold Price from the data, going back 16 years to 1982, which I posted last month. If you put them into a spreadsheet, you can then easily keep the chart updated weekly from my postings.
I am also doing a bit of research into the mysteries of Lease rates, because I am a little confused by what I read here about that topic.
Best wishes and Regards................Dabchick

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:28 - ID#252391)
Gold and Gold Stock tonigtht
As of this posting gold is up a staggering 30 cents. After
yesterday's probe of the 296.50 area on gold and the run
of Platinum stops at 340 no follow through was found.
Over night silver took a dip into the highs 4.70s but has
recovered to 4.81.

We are still in a declining tops, liquidating market humbled
by an increase in commercial short interest. Interest seems
to have wained as the stock market seems to have found
its footing and looks ready to stand above 8000. The
October massacre has yet to materialize and should it fail
to appear by Holloween we'll see a rally starting NOV
1st. A new burst of Japanese Trust fund money is free to
go abroad beginnig December 1st as part of their
deregulation program. Critical resistance point for the
Bonds is at 129.22 basis December about where it sits

The world financial markets seem to be spelling out
RELIEF - watch the CRB at 205 if it can keep rising after
today's fall it would imply to me the battle against
is being won. The Central Bank/Hedge Fund Cabal
should be expected to be active above $300. Anticipating
another tight range day in the metals as the stock market,
particularly the smaller issues pick up. Locals may run
stops at 299.10 basis Dec Gold, but then let the market
fall back to 298.

The XAU has fallen below its 200 day moving average,
basis the close Wednesday. I think sideways action is
dictated by a need to get the 50 day moving average up
above the 200. This will occurr if we wander about in the
68-75 range for a few weeks which I suggest is what
see at best.

I'm looking for a bad news test of Gold; though as hard
pressed as I am to think of what would be bullish for gold
that actually has proven to be, I can't think what could
push gold lower, either.

Tax loss selling may give us a great opportunity in GSR,ALTA and GRERF if in the case of GRERF production problems haven't been encountered that are not being admitted.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:36 - ID#284255)
Snipped from another Y2k forumSnipped from another Y2k forum
Gartner Report, comments on.

I have not seen any comments on this recent Gartner report at
posted here, so I'll give some.

Note that the source of the data is from Gartner's clients, basically,
and this data has not been independently verified. It is more likely to
be optimistic than pessimistic, though.

There are several graphics in the report which break down progress
towards y2k-compliance into five different levels, with Level 0 being
nothing done, Level 4 having all mission-critical systems fully
compliant with testing complete, and Level 5 including complete
compliance of non-critical systems too. The scale is odd in the
original and gives a misleading picture. I have reproduced two charts
but with a time-based scale, based on the data that:

1. Completing the inventory/assessment phase of a y2k project is about
7% of the total work.
2. For a project to be effective, at least 50% of the time and effort
must be put into testing.

From these data, approximate percentages of the different phases of a
y2k project, using the Gartner Levels, are:

Level 0,1,2 ( through the inventory phase ) 7%
Level 3 ( 20% critical items fixed and tested ) 18%
Level 4 ( remaining 80% critical items fully fixed ) 75%
Level 5 ( let's just ignore this one as unimportant ) 0%

So let's reproduce their first chart, but with a time-based scale.

Status by IndustryU.S. The X's show the general extent of progress in
that industry, with the .'s at the right showing how much is left to do
in the remaining 14  months before 1/1/2000.

Investment Services ....XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.............
Food Processing .XXXX...................................
Chemical Processing .XXXX...................................
Pharmaceuticals ..XXXXXXX...............................
Heavy Equipment
Aerospace ...XXXXXXX..............................
Transportation ..XXXXX.................................
Government Services .XXXXXXX................................
Farming/Agriculture .XX.....................................
Construction XX......................................
Discrete Mfg. .XXXXXXX................................
Healthcare .XX.....................................
Medical Equipment .XXXXX..................................
Medical Practices X.......................................
Law Practices X.......................................
Oil ..XXX...................................
Computer Mfg. ..XXXXXXX...............................
Software .XXXXX..................................
Semiconductor ..XXXX..................................
Education .XX.....................................
Personal Care Prods...XXX...................................
Power/Gas/Water .XXXXXX.................................
Telecom ..XXXXXXXX..............................
Retail .XXXXXXX................................

So, apart from the financial sectors, everyone else in the US is no
better than a quarter done. Since the medium and large companies need
to spend at least 30 months on their projects to get their
mission-critical systems compliant ( it states later in the report that a
medium-sized company needs about 30 months to get compliant through
Level 4 ) , it would seem like all the non-financial sectors will be at
best half-way done by 1/1/2000. I don't know exactly how an industry
will fare with only half of its mission-critical systems operating.
Since the Power/Gas/Water sector is included in these, it will probably
be a moot point since without power everything else folds up.

There is another chart showing relative status of different countries,
which I reproduce here, again with the time-based scale that the Gartner
report omitted:

Canada ..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX...................
Australia ..XXXXXXXXXXX...........................
South Africa XXXXX...................................
Israel XXXXXXXXXX..............................
Ireland XXXXXXXXXXXXX...........................
England XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.....................
Belgium ..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX...............
Sweden ..XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX..................
Japan XXXXXX..................................
Germany XXXXXX..................................
Italy .XXXXXXXX...............................
Switzerland .XXXXXXXXX..............................
Mexico XXXXXX..................................
Russia XXX.....................................
China XXX.....................................
Taiwan XXXXX...................................
India XXXX....................................
Malaysia XXXX....................................
Thailand XXX.....................................
Philippines XXX.....................................
Mid. East ( no Israel ) XXX.....................................
Argentine XXX.....................................
Venezuela XXX.....................................
Brazil XXXX....................................
France XXXXXXXX................................

From this chart we can see the relative progress of many different
countries. Remember the USA looks like it will end up with almost all
industries having no more than half of their mission-critical systems
fixed. It looks like a handful of countries ( Canada, England, Holland,
Belgium, Sweden ) will do half as well, i.e. have almost all their
industries with no more than one quarter of their mission-critical
systems functioning. Most of the others shown are predicted to have
much less: for example, South Africa seems to be about one-eighth as
far along as the US, which would indicate that almost all of its
industries would have over a 90% failure rate of their mission-critical
systems. But again, the lack of Gas/Water/Power makes these extra
calculations superfluous.

So keep going with all your preps, folks!

Got physical?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:46 - ID#390259)
mozel (nothing stops robbery but force) mind over matter
Hello mozel, just some ideas:
I believe that one only gets robbed if there is the ( secret ) desire to be robbed ( same as speculators have the secret desire to loose ) . If one agrees on "mind over matter" robbery stops with the force of mind.
I am presently experimenting with a combination of mental healing and ZERO Point energy. So far it looks more than promising. I can remove electrosmog from a video screen by using an informed and energised quartz glass cell ( price 20 USD ) similar devices but much more expensive ( 40 USD ) can be found on I have likewise developped and successfully tested such cells with specific info of Bachflower remedies. This cell removes the need for seeing your healimg practitioner for testing and adjusting every 4-6 weeks.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:50 - ID#284255)
Economic tsunami: Currency crises delay year 2000 repairs at U.S. trading partners

-----------Resplice the url--------------

Economic tsunami: Currency crises delay year 2000 repairs at U.S. trading partners

The plummeting baht, the weakened yen, the hammered ruble, the devalued ringgit they're causing economic mayhem around the world that couldn't have come at a worse time for year 2000 computer projects.

Analysts said several Asian countries are about a year or two behind on their millennium projects because of their economic crises and cash-strapped Russia is just getting started. Even major U.S. trading partners such as Japan and Germany have fallen behind.

That means U.S. companies need to account for international systems failures in their contingency plans and insulate themselves from offshore snafus, analysts and users said.

As Russia, Japan and Indonesia suffer from currency crises, "their priorities clearly are not going to be year 2000," said Howard A. Rubin,a research fellow at Meta Group, Inc. in Stamford, Conn.

"We have a definite concern and exposure in [Asian] countries, and the lack of [regulatory] oversight in Asia has brought the banking system to its knees," said John Beran, chief information officer at Comerica, Inc., a Detroit-based bank.

To minimize any disruption from faulty data, Beran suggests that U.S. banks install filters to edit incoming data from international partners and customers.

Another contingency approach is to create a "buddy network" among major supply-chain partners and test one another's systems "to get early notice of their status," Rubin said.

U.S. companies with deep pockets and critical foreign suppliers also can send year 2000 project staffers to work on a partner's systems, said William Ulrich, president of Tactical Strategy Group, Inc. in Soquel, Calif., and a Computerworld columnist.


Other options: Switch suppliers, buy out small but critical suppliers or just stop doing business in certain countries, as some of Ulrich's manufacturing and insurance clients are considering doing.

"If one country only represents 1% of revenues out of 36 countries, it may be more judicious to drop clients from that country and pull out altogether," Ulrich said.

Given the networked nature of world markets, there is no such thing as an "isolated" failure, testified William A. Bautz, chief technology officer at the New York Stock Exchange, at a U.S. Senate hearing in July.

In the finance sector, an international disruption in a key market "could prevent the settlement of trades or movement of cash and securities, which in turn could squeeze credit and liquidity," testified Peter A. Miller, CIO at New York-based J. P. Morgan & Co., at the same hearing.

Economic problems "will absolutely have an effect" on the ability of foreign banks to execute year 2000 projects, said Mel Taub, CIO at Salomon Smith Barney, Inc. in New York. The firm's joint venture with Nikko Securities Co. in Tokyo to be launched in the first quarter of next year will be year 2000-ready. "But I'm less confident about other [Asian] players," Taub said.

Asia "has a year 1998 problem," with many organizations just trying to stay in business for the remainder of the year, said Edward E. Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

Users said it has been especially hard to get reliable information on international year 2000 projects, but the following reports suggest why government and private-sector experts are alarmed:

Two-thirds of the companies in Russia, China, India, Argentina and Venezuela are expected to have a mission-critical system failure in 2000, according to Gartner Group, Inc. in Cambridge, Mass.Gartner, which surveys 15,000 companies in 87 countries every three months, reported on Aug. 5 that 23% of companies worldwide have yet to start dealing with year 2000 issues. That's an improvement over 50% last year.

An Aug. 20 survey by the Tokyo Stock Exchange found that 81% of Japanese companies are working on the millennium problem, 9% are finished and 6% said they had done nothing or saw no need to take action.

The economic crisis in the Asia-Pacific region has pushed that region's spending on the year 2000 problem into next year, when 5.2% of information technology spending will be devoted to the millennium glitch, according to Framingham, Mass.-based International Data Corp., a sister company to Computerworld.

Surveys by Reuters and Merrill Lynch & Co. indicate that utilities in Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia and China are ill-prepared for year 2000.

Many foreign companies, faced with capital crises, are trying to fix their year 2000 problems "on the cheap," observers said. By U.S. standards, they have modest budgets and are hoping for free help from vendors, fellow users and governments. Sometimes they outsource the job to low-cost software factories in India.

Year 2000 project spending at non-U.S. companies is about 50% lower than the spending at peer companies in the U.S., Rubin said.

But some observers said the international situation isn't as bad as doomsayers suggest.

Mac Jeffery, a spokesman for IBM Asia Pacific in Tokyo, said the year 2000 situation in Asia is roughly similar to that of other regions:

The laggards are generally small businesses, along with some scattered midsize businesses.


"Most large organizations banks, for example recognize that the Y2K problem is a priority, even in the face of current economic pressures," Jeffery said. "Even in China, which some outsiders speculate must be far behind, the government has initiated an extremely vigorous program to get government and industry ready."

Peter Walker, principal consultant at A. T. Kearney, Inc.'s strategic IT practice in Singapore, agreed that most Asian banks and certain countries, such as high-tech Singapore, are in relatively good shape.

But at the other end of the spectrum are Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Walker said those countries went into "doldrums mode" when the economic crises hit, which means decision-making in the organization slowed down and year 2000 fixes didn't get management attention.

"In different times, this could have been the No. 1 concern for the CEO. Today, because of the crash, it could be the No. 5 concern. The CEO is worried more about getting capital, markets, driving costs out of the system and the year 2000 sits at the end of a long list," Walker said.

The result: "The IT department is reacting the best it can, rewriting code," Walker said. "But the whole systems testing area, contingency planning, the interfaces to external parties all of these issues are not really being looked at in great detail," he said.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 04:53 - ID#389171)
TO MOONEY,my 22h56 oct14th
Just read:
Translation is from J.C de Fontbrune,1980.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 05:05 - ID#284255)
The Blackout History Project


(Thu Oct 15 1998 05:09 - ID#386245)
The gold conundrum
Have a look at Bill Buckler's gold chart in $$ Aussie. So you thought gold was standing still did you? The $A has appreciated markedly over the past few days precipitating a plunge in prices of gold and other commodities in OZ.

The plunge in gold prices in my currency and in the Yen and other Asian currencies has various effects. As the $A gold price tumbles the Aussie producers will hang on to their gold. At $500/oz they were locking in prices that would keep them from the grim reaper, come what may. Many of you decry the short sightedness of the forward selling gold miners. If the alternative were bankruptcy or an unwanted takeover, what would you have done?

Asians will be buying more gold. The recent currency debacle is very fresh in their minds. You will not see Rupiah being stored under the mattress. This is also positive for the $US price. It is going to be increasingly difficult for the powers-that-be to keep the lid on this pressure cooker.

The benefit for people like myself is another chance to switch from paper gold to the real stuff at lower prices. LET'S GET PHYSICAL. Do it!!! Before it is all gone. If you saw Australia's plastic currency you would not hesitate to trade it for the 'currency of the ages'.

lefty kiwi
(Thu Oct 15 1998 05:22 - ID#32176)
Aurator re J & M out of bullion
Not guilty , but it was my friend 'Toad ' also a well known ex Dunedinite
I am sure you will Know him he was a Progressive printer in the 70's

Still suprised they are out of stock
As you know there is a 10 day delay on orders at Morris and Watson
( also being filled from Australia )
I have not decided if to continue to be physical or risk futures purchases for my next buy , which will be after the 18/10 low date


(Thu Oct 15 1998 05:42 - ID#389171)
you have to study the Quatrains as a whole with a method.
I wish you could read a book of jc de fontbrune:he is THE translator.
will try to find out who edit his last book in english .

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:10 - ID#26793)
Merril Lynch expects another major hedge fund failure within 6 months

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:13 - ID#26793)
Bundesbank warns other nations about excessive interest rate cuts.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:19 - ID#26793)
LTCM failure impairs ability of Japanese banks to borrow dollars.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:24 - ID#26793)
Nomura posts a major loss; head of U.S. unit resigns. After tax loss US$275 million

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:27 - ID#26793)
New turmoil in the Russian ruble

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:33 - ID#37463)
When Reify first asked me my opinion of Y2K some weeks back my first thought was that he was quizzing me on choice of lubricants. Now I am becoming fairly versed on his meaning and question. The cost of this horrendous problem cam home to me just recently as I was reviewing the cost of a medium sized client's software costs. They spend $10,000 making their computers Y2K proof. Sheesh, that about 30 ounces of gold folks.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:37 - ID#26793)
Brazilian auto sales fall 21.5%; unsold auto inventory doubles.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:43 - ID#26793)
World Trade Organization (WTO) slashes growth forecast by half

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:44 - ID#29048)
South African Mining News
October 15, 1998 S. Africa Anglo To Buyout Minorities Of Anglo Coal

Dow Jones Newswires ( Excerpt from longer article )

JOHANNESBURG -- South Africa's Anglo American Corp. ( ANGLY ) Thursday unveiled the most daring restructuring in its history announcing it will seek a primary listing in London and proceed with acquiring the
minority stakes of associates Minorco SA ( MNRCY ) and Anglo American Coal Corp. ( O.AMC ) .

The massive shakeup is the most sweeping development in a revamping of Anglo's Byzantine structures, which for years have held back the group from overcoming a discount to its net asset value.

At the core of the multipronged restructuring, Anglo will create Anglo American PLC and proceed with buyout share exchange offers for Anglo and Minorco, its offshore natural resources arm.

Anglo shareholders will receive one Anglo PLC share for each company share, while Minorco shareholders will receive one Anglo PLC share for every two of Minorco's shares, or an alternative cash offer of $16 a share.
- - 15/10/98 07-34G
Anglo and Minorco shareholders will receive documentation on the proposed takeovers in early 1999, following compliance with London Stock Exchange
requirements, Anglo said in a statement.

Anglo PLC would transform itself into one of the world's largest mining and natural resources conglomerates with significant global interests in precious and base metals, diamonds, industrial minerals and other industrial and financial activities.

The London-headquartered group would have a market capitalization of GBP6.1 billion, qualifying it for the FTSE 100 Index. It would also carry listings in Johannesburg and other major European stock exchanges, Anglo

for more details, see WSJ-Interactive....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:46 - ID#34883)
Calcavecchia,Damron lead in Las Vegas

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:53 - ID#203191)
someting's brewing
Spot now waking up around 296.6 with increasing minor volatility. watching closely, but maybe starting to run!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:54 - ID#288466)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 06:59 - ID#31868)
Namaste' to all,,, I truly wish each and every one of you could be here right NOW...
coffee and hot Chocolate...the cool breeze off the water...the Crows Crowing...delicious early morning on the Island that is Long...

to Donald that provides sooooooooooo much information...chubby toes make their way down the corridor...out to the Great Lawn...

a Salute to ya Sir...yup...uh huh...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:02 - ID#26793)
World recession possible but not a depression because leaders know how to fix that now.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:10 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: Thank you Dabchick for your lease rate calculations.
One month gold and silver lease rates are BOTH below 1% now.
POG and POS on the Kitco charts appear 'tight' and range bound
over the past three days.

CONCLUSION: we are about to see a dramatic change.

The lease rates are telling us that both of these metals are being
set up to collapse in price.


ultra low lease rates mean very low demand for metal in the gold/silver
carry. We already know that actual warehouse supplies of silver are
small and shrinking. So, the gold/silver carry is being made ultra
attractive, but speculators are not taking the bait. I think we
are in a situation of the market watching developments with baited
breath. The situation is explosive, but could be implosive.
We could go up or down from here, fast.

I hope we go down, I am now ready to make final physical/equity
purchases. If we go up, that's OK too.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:12 - ID#252391)
WE Hawk eyes - Contrarian & I
Yes, I notice that little swinge of activity as well. Gold up $1.10, silver has come back to almost unchanged from having been as low as 4.76.

Stock market faded right off having been up; now unchanged to down a bit.

I think the locals are getting prepared to run the stops abouve $299.10, pull in some buyers and then dump the thing. But of course that's just a guess - just that they tried the downside yesterday to no avail.

May be something brewing - never short a quiet market.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:16 - ID#252391)
With you Rhody
Think you have this thing wired - just don't know whether its up we'll go or down. Wish we'd go down, first. I hate to see these higher opening fade at the close. If we do get going there will be much climbing back aboard, I think.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:19 - ID#26793)
The crows on this side are as big as chickens; and the fish have been jumping right out of the water all week. No place else on earth quite like it.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:21 - ID#386245)
So you think your gold is safe!?!?
To mah Amerkan mates:

While Congress adopted legislation in the 1970s that gave Americans back the right to own gold, the authority granted by the amended Trading With the Enemy Act still stands. Violations of this 75-year-old act are "specified unlawful activities" prohibited under all anti-money laundering laws enacted in the 1980s. Penalties for wilful non-compliance are now 20 years in prison and a $500,000 fine. The framework therefore remains in place for the President to declare a national emergency and again force Americans to part with their gold. Violations of such order will be considered money laundering. Under the Draconian money laundering laws that have been put in place - ostensibly to counter drugs but in reality to support compliance with taxation - even if the government can't prove criminal intent, there civil forfeiture for suspected violations. This means that if the government can demonstrate to a judge "probable cause" indicating you are "hoarding" gold in violation of an emergency order, it could confiscate everything you own.

Max Mosely:

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:21 - ID#348257)
After reading some of last night's posts I have determined who ANOTHER really is. Nostradamus!

DONALD: See, wha'd I tell you. 's gonna be alright.

TOLERANT: Beautiful L.I. morning. No LI.

SCITO: If you're still around to read this, re aids in Africa, I was saying a couple weeks ago that my market research ( for tourism promotion ) disclosed that Zambia was "the epicenter" of the aids epidemic in Africa. But I made no projections as to population devastation. Though it seems that in that area especially ( include Uganda, Zimbabwe ) the effect is now, and will continue to be, very horrible.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:23 - ID#348257)
it seems it ain't just the cotton that's high.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:27 - ID#348257)
here is a way around the "hoarding" decree and draconian government interference with the right of a citizen to own gold - the law, as I understand it, usually exempts collections. Since collecting rarities is a whole 'nother game of golf, I suggest that when purchasing gold coins, one acquire a leetle of everything out there. Eventually, you will have multiple collections of the same dozen or so coins. When the feds come knockin at the door, you whip out collection no. 1 and show them. They go away. Then you sell collections, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 on the black market for cash, while keeping collections 10, 11, 12....well you get the picture. Wait a minute...someon's knocking at my door...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:30 - ID#288466)
Nick @ C @ gold confiscation in the US

This possibility makes a GREAT case for owning gold shares in the U.S.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:32 - ID#36829)

If one was to go into physical gold what would you recommend? Did you notice that half page add from the WGC about gold in the financial review today and the story about the big aussie gold miners starting an AGC? Interesting!!

Big day tomorrow for RSG, I would love as would many of us for gold to rise at least a few dollars tomorrow. This would help RSG appreciate enough for me to sell. I have every confidence in the company but my confidence in the market and my own ability to understand it is waning.

If the bulong sale goes ahead I think we could see at least $1.55.

Your thoughts as always would be appreciated. By the way are you from Queensland or Canberra. I always assumed you were from Canberra because of your title but I recently saw someone refer to you as a Queenslander. I myself am from the Bush Capital.



Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:36 - ID#260119)
It's not Golf ...It's gold!!!!
I got it from Liam Gleeson. ( He' doing two years in Fort Knocks for imbuggerment )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:42 - ID#288466)
Market cycles - Gold

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:48 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller, Nick

Got a sealed, 18 inch long PVC pipe filled with '65-'69 Kennedy halves. I figure it like this-- While the Feds are looking at the Mountie collection and trying to figure out what the hell they are, take the PVC pipe and pretend you are Mark McGwire. It is a plenty good plan, yes?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:48 - ID#288466)
XAU time chart
This site has not been updated in a while, but shows a turning point on Monday 10/19 on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows the next peak on 11/20, so the daily peak may not be important.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:51 - ID#386245)
G'day Mike Sheller/Silverbaron/T-Bone
Hi guys?
Mike--you could also have a hole in the back yard out of detector range. The kind of crisis that would bring on confiscation would also feed a thriving black market. How do you guys on the 18th floor in Long Island bury your gold??
Silverbaron--also a good case for owning gold OUTSIDE of the US. See the Perth Mint website. Or you can send me 100k. I will buy gold and bury it for you. Honest.xx.{{:-^--} ) )
T-Bone--I am worried about buy the rumour, sell the fact. The Bulong sale is ALREADY factored into the price. You will need a Ouija board to know the direction of RSG next week. I trade, so am in 'n out more than the Prez. I miss a move here and there, but volatility is the name of the game. RSG is especially volatile. Check out a chart. Not a banana bender, mate. If you send an e-mail to sharefin for me--we can have a beer and 'talk gold' sometime. Cheers, Nick.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:51 - ID#288466)
Jeil's projections
Show the S&P dropping about 10% over the next week or so, HM about to fall over the cliff...but ASA looks good for a while.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:58 - ID#340262)
This whole thing is getting quite suspenseful gold quiet or unchanged more hedge fund and bank troubles lots of equity volatility both up and down - My view is that when gold does moves it will be with extreme volatility with the price moving up 10 or 20% a day. Perhaps not quite so volatile if it moves down - lots of people sitting on the fence and poised to jump quickly.

If you look at some of the blue chip stocks moving 15 to 30 percent in just a few days when they miss there earnings expectations by only small amounts its amazing - When gold moves the gold price and that of gold shares might start exhibiting these same characteristics - it is turning into quite a waiting game so be ready to jump either way at a moments notice. - cjk -

(Thu Oct 15 1998 07:58 - ID#288466)
Market Forecast

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:01 - ID#260119)
Gold rally on Friday in anticipation of a demoralizing loss of
confidence in New York on Mon. Oct. 19,1998... ( P.S. Do you believe everything you read? ) I'm just trying to make a call without having to do any research.Go Gold! And Golf!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:05 - ID#31868)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' walked forty seven miles of BarbWire, actually ate the
Cobra snake that was supposed to be a to the matter within MY mind...Desolate chills wrack my soul as I feel the cool which is the arc of plastic that represents the Handset of my Phone who never rings with your voicebutnooooooooooooooooooooooo

You are a piece of the ORIGINAL FLINTsparks like that do not fly much anymore, when Hu met Bris he understoodyup

Guilt is weaponless but arrives with a cut which no German steel might know

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:09 - ID#288466)
Still a lot of calls being sold for gold majors...not many puts

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:14 - ID#30126)
@Finally the rains have left and
Kitco seems to be 'working' again.... :- )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:23 - ID#31868)
Donald, Namaste'...gulps and puffs from over here...heh...heh...heh...still Laughing...
yup...uh huh...selfless would be the Gift of my Last drop of Blood so that your Ventricle might pump one more time for the World to embrace the warmth that is you...even during my Fall to the pavement as the husk which houses my soul slumps I Salute all that is YOU...

There is a God and HE sends HIS Blessings...


(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:28 - ID#252391)
Jeil's Forecasts
As nice a man as Jeil undoubtably is I personally can not get very excited about his forecasts. The stock market has been going to crash now for months's - I mean crash - HM was going to go below zero for a while and now HM looks down but ASA looks up or oK - that makes no sense to me. Jeil has a different forecast every day - I guess I do to based on what has happend the day before but I can't project that into 75% drops as his work does for HM.

Tell you my forecast developed by using yellow and blue pens - The S&P doesn't make a new low, doesn't go below 940 in Ocotober and then rallies smartly to 1150 by years' end because the world doesn't come to and end. And my yellow and blue lines for HM - doesn't go below 11 finishes the year at 13 1/4.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:41 - ID#288466)

I'm not saying Jeil is correct or incorrect in his projections....but ASA should have a BIG advantage in the upcoming quarterly earnings report, because of their lower costs ( due the Rand fall vs U.S. dollar ) .

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:45 - ID#30126)
How curious... Inflation
led by truck price increases? Will wonders never cease! Now, for oil to rise due to increased fuel demand from all of those trucks.... :- )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:48 - ID#354133)
We can only hope
Now maybe the mentally defective, braggadocios, lying, self-centered, self-serving, cowardly, greedy salesman, R-Clinton-clone-* will only regurgitate his stale company propaganda/tainted opinions instead of continuing to flame others and seek commissions through Kitco sales leads.

I'll believe it when I see it. Once a salesman, always one...

I've gotten a lot of e-mails from Kitko-ites & current/ex-customers from the R-Clinton-clone-* telling me how much money they've lost as a result of his "expert" advice.


You don't always get what you pay for folks...

DISCLAIMER: This is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to advocate or dissuade anyone from dealing with any particular individual or company. Let the buyer beware.


Go golf!


Jan Plat 343
Dec Gold 298.8
Dec Silv 4.85

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:49 - ID#30126)
And then there's
Expiration Friday this week. While NOT a triple witch, 'option' Friday always makes for interesting positioning. Therefore, believe none of what you hear, and very little of what you see. The option jockies have been working hard all week.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:54 - ID#288186)
PPI numbers...
08:31 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 2,000 TO 302,000.
08:31 INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 2,000 TO 303,000; 4-WEEK AVERAGE AT 297,000.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:56 - ID#30126)
A washout in the making?
Or a fantastic rise in the making? If a washout, then the PM stocks go down to 'support' levels and maybe rally? As usual, whither the Dow?

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 08:59 - ID#348257)
next dow resistance...
8400. coming soon to a ticker near you. great day all. Namaste tol.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:02 - ID#30126)
Gold seems to be hanging in there...
Perhaps we test the former lows. Perhaps not...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:03 - ID#288466)
panda @ Inflation
Heres a cycle projection oscillator for the CRB index, showing up, up, up!>

BTW the same site has cycle projections for gold, silver, platinum. I've asked them for temporary access to post on Kitco.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:05 - ID#288466)
Last post

You'll have to cut and paste the link to the gif picture....I couldn't get the shortcut to transfer without getting boozed up.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:09 - ID#30126)
Mike Sheller
If we hit 8400 on the Dowsy, I'll be selling DIAmonds... The market internals are piss poor..... Most stocks are already down 50%. The generals have yet to take it on the chin. The challenge to selling DIAs will be in finding the buyers. The last time I tried it.... Well, there were NO takers........

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:10 - ID#30126)
I got that 'virtual' thingy error...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:13 - ID#411259)
..... All .....

In case everybody does not know ( the posts are rather incoherent ) :

Gunrunner does not like me. He almost daily throws mysterious jabs my way. It seems as if he has a very personal axe to grind and is using the Kitco forum to grind it. He will continue this childish and petulant moping until the world changes to suit him. Since the world will not do this, can we take it as a given that Gunny does not like me?

Now maybe the poorly written, and barely legible posts can be better understood by all. Like a shadow, whenever I post, the Gunrunner is there with his vague threats and mystery stories. He posts his e-mail to solicit responses so he can use this forum to carry on his private agenda. I find this a sad state of affairs, preferring to live in the sun rather than hide in the closet, but this is likely to continue.

All said and done, I find his mystery posts amusing. Just so the rest of you know, they are directed at me, and I take zero offence. Better to give this subterfuge some fresh air, yes?

Yes, Indeedy

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:16 - ID#288466)
Perhaps you can go in thru the front door of the site. Click on the Cycle Projection Oscillator on the front page, then the "free sample" of the CRB daily and weekly on the second page.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:21 - ID#30126)
Let's see if this works...
Oil, CLX8, on the overnight...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:25 - ID#30126)
That worked! Got to go now, the sun is finally out! Then again, it is snowing on Mt. Washington....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:27 - ID#354133)
I rest my case....

I just don't like liars with hidden agendas.

Go Golf!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:33 - ID#45173)
Market has already discounted Q3 earnings, looking to Q4, has this so far today...
Mcgraw-Hill Says Slowing Economy May Make Q4 'More Challenging'

What a relief that Kitco's working again. Bart musta given it a big bandwidth enema.

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:35 - ID#384350)
Fibonacci 89 Days?
Aren't we a Fibonacci 89 days from July 17 top? And was the top in the DJIA July 17 or July 20?

We could see a turning point in the next several days.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:41 - ID#20748)
Would anyone with access to EWT please post a summary of their October letter.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:41 - ID#270253)
New Lows can be a clue
The new lows in New York have been stubborn, and above the benchmark 75 issues per day as the market recovers. This is a weak sign.

The new lows on Toronto mining issues have remained at 5 or less all week as the gold index has corrected close to 20%. This is a sign of strength.

This is just one indicator, but one with two contrasts currently.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:43 - ID#411259)
..... F spot .....

It has never been the content of what you say.

It has always been the way you say it. And the insults you throw.

Have you not heard? I am delivering gold to folks like it is going out of style. This insistence that it is your views on the markets that has caused bad blood is transparent. Apart from pointing out the factual mistakes contained in your "analysis", I have no beef with the content of your posts. Since you view the gold market in such strictly black and white terms, it seems as if you would press this mindset on others. I have been a gold bear because a gold bear has been the thing to be, as history has proven. I will just as enthusiastically be a gold bull when the market warrants. I have written in great detail why I believe this will not happen until after the start of the year. Since I have been vastly more accurate than you in predicting the POG, I find it hard to understand how you could find argument with my posts on gold. Recently you jumped on the short term bear bandwagon and called for gold to break into new lows. At the exact same time, I was telling everybody that gold was a great buy. Gold then went up. Just as earlier in the year, you were telling everybody that gold would blow through 315 and keep going. I predicted that gold would rise to 310 - 315 and then go back to test the lows, which will hold. Since this is exactly what has happened, your crusade against me seems baseless.

That you are a perma-bull is plain to see. You will continue your perma-bull stance until the markets finally cooperate. I will trade the range until is time to go long gold. When that time comes, I will herald it to the world.

But please stop putting your own zealot's mindset into me. I have a much more realist and real world view of these markets. I do not view them wild hope, but with calm assurance. Since my analysis has proven correct, the only way you could find fault is to rewrite history. This is a hard thing to do when there is a record of the history readily available for all to see.

Rather than propaganda, I prefer to stick with facts. These facts can turn around and bite on occasion, but I find this a more satisfying way to deal with the world, rather than trying to shove the world into my own little mold.

Please stop this anti gold conspiracy garbage. These are attacks that carry no name but are attacks nonetheless. You promised Bart you would not do this, yes? Maybe you could keep that promise?


(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:44 - ID#28021)
Looks like the market does NOT like the court decision. TVX falling rapidly below $2..... geeeeesh. And gold is going up!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:46 - ID#411259)
..... Gunny .....

If you are calling me a liar, perhaps you could demonstrate an example of these lies?

I challenge you to do so, or make your apology as public as your snipes.

If not, your words themselves are lies.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:46 - ID#288466)
NJ @ Prechter
I posted excerpts on gold, stocks, bonds from the current newsletter in the afternoon about a week ago, but I can't remember the exact day. Perhaps you can search for it.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:52 - ID#348309)
Dec gold above $ at $300.90

(Thu Oct 15 1998 09:53 - ID#147201)
Dabchick re Lease and Euro
I have lost your email address. How about emailing me. Thanx, Charlie

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:08 - ID#280215)
I believe you are the person who has also heard the Don Wolanchuk show and has posted his thoughts. I apologize if you are not the one. Whoever it is, does anyone know what Wolanchuk's latest call is.

I like to hear his reports because he is a strictly Elliott wave person like Prechter. However, he has a total opposite view. I enjoy trying to call the waves, but am especially curious/interested because they are so opposite of each other. Prechter is similar to Puetz in that he sees Armageddon and blood in the streets shortly, while Wolanchuk sees this as the start of something that will take us way up into the next century. He has in the past stated that he is waiting for the wave 3 to begin where the Dow rockets up and gaps up hundreds of points for days in a row.

He and Prechter. Total opposites. I know Prechter's view. Again, does anyone have an update of Wolanchuk's current and longer term view. As always, thanks in advance!!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:11 - ID#288466)
'Tis not me. Sorry - I would like to see another view also.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:14 - ID#268260)
TVX down 1/2 early on big volume. The court decision did not help this stock.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:16 - ID#288466)
I did a search on the Wollanchuck Report. Here's their hotline number if you are interested:


(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:17 - ID#331214)
??? bashing
I don't like to see RJ having to waste his time and ours. His comments are being forced out because there are negatives being directed his way, and it does hurt to have personal criticisms. Lets keep our focus. Things are happening in POG and PM stocks. I value your opinion RJ.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:18 - ID#280215)
Thanks! By the way, with all apologies to Farfel, today looks like the start of another shorting opportunity, based only on technicals. Divergences continue to build.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:20 - ID#37463)
RJ, don't sweat the gnats. You are free to speak your mind here. By the by, I seem to be losing my mind. Surely gold could not be rising like yeast in light dough. Tell me it is so.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:21 - ID#43185)
DOW +1
Economic figures coming in indicate the economy to be much stronger than anticipated. This will put a damper on future rate increase by the Fed inasmuch as this would point toward danger of inflation. Especially since the market had driven rates quite a bit lower due to foreign flight money.

Good for gold and silver. Not so good for bonds. Mixed for DOW.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:27 - ID#268260)
Keep your focus. Your comments are valued by many of us. All points of view should be welcome on this forum. Nobody knows it all. But you know more than most. Keep up the good work!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:38 - ID#288466)
~~~ poof ~~~ BBML

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:41 - ID#365216)
reason to buy platinum, yes?


Nick@C ( So you think your gold is safe!?!? ) ID#386245:
Copyright  1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To mah Amerkan mates:

While Congress adopted legislation in the 1970s that gave Americans back the right to own gold, the authority
granted by the amended Trading With the Enemy Act still stands. Violations of this 75-year-old act are "specified
unlawful activities" prohibited under all anti-money laundering laws enacted in the 1980s. Penalties for wilful
non-compliance are now 20 years in prison and a $500,000 fine. The framework therefore remains in place for
the President to declare a national emergency and again force Americans to part with their gold. Violations of such
order will be considered money laundering. Under the Draconian money laundering laws that have been put in
place - ostensibly to counter drugs but in reality to support compliance with taxation - even if the government can't
prove criminal intent, there civil forfeiture for suspected violations. This means that if the government can
demonstrate to a judge "probable cause" indicating you are "hoarding" gold in violation of an emergency order, it
could confiscate everything you own.

Max Mosely:

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:44 - ID#20748)
Silverbaron: just checked your October 6, post. That mentions gold and silver. I heard he projects a stock market crash in October. Is that so?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:45 - ID#43185)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:48 - ID#43185)
It's a blip

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:48 - ID#408147)
Certified Mint in Phx -- I am in Pheonix. They are located in an office complex in downtown. I have no past dealings with them so I have nothing negative aginst them personally -- however, I always prefer to see who I am deling with.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:48 - ID#354133)
This too, shall pass.

You know one cannot cut and paste spoken words.

Just ask some of your EX-customers.

But you can re-post some of your own Kitco posts, Ms. ANOTHER.

BTW, where is that CD you promised me four months ago?

Now come on, do what you do best - regurgitate some of that insider salesclerk information that we've all come to enjoy and rely on! Answer your audience, dude.

No apologies....'nuff said.

Look at those metals go up today! ( so far )

Jan Plat 345.0
Dec Gold 300.4
Dec Silv 4.89

(Thu Oct 15 1998 10:57 - ID#342397)
I believe the gummint will confiscate, limit bank withdrawals to $50.00 per day, etc. Clintler couldn't have ordered up scenerio any more to his liking.

What about holding silver??

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:00 - ID#147201)
RayZer re Certified Mint
Can you get me the phone or other info on this Mint? Much obliged for your help. Charlie

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:04 - ID#333126)
any comments about the US$ today?

i see a 1% fall against most major currencies...

another 'rattle' approaching? hmmm....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:05 - ID#258427)
True...Ravenfire (1%)
And Gold up exactly 1% as well...connected at the hip??

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:15 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings--AM--[LBMA]

Gold AM Fixing ( 15 Oct 1998 ) :173.678 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 15 Oct 1998 ) :296.000 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 14 Oct 1998 ) :173.298 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 14 Oct 1998 ) :295.300 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 14Oct 1998 ) :2.8250 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 14 Oct 1998 ) :4.8025 US Dollars

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:15 - ID#212197)
@Dutchman: Do you know more about TVX?
All: is there a good reason for this decline when almost all other gold stocks go up?

Thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:16 - ID#333126)
hmm... 'almost infinite' rates of return

2nd last paragraph

almost makes me want to run a mortgage-funding business too

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:19 - ID#242214)
Could it be the TRIGGER?
Gollum your post:


Could it be the trigger for gold?

Cage Rattler
(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:23 - ID#33184)
Tiger fund sold 600m usd/jpy today

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:25 - ID#365216)

CERTIFIED MINT'S Phone number is 1-800-528-1380

for a $5000 order, he gave me a quote of about $358 per
Platinum Eagle based upon $342 spot which seemed very good
to me. They advertise in the populist newspaper SPOTLIGHT
which is a plus to me, maybe a negative to others ( especially
pro-Clintlers ) .

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:30 - ID#242214)
Risk will increase!

``Brazil will be forced to devalue if money keeps flowing out of the country,''

Lan Man
(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:30 - ID#317183)
@From AM News Abuse
Nicaraguan soldiers have been sent to guard a lost Indian city discovered by a documentary filmmaker in the jungle near the Costa Rican border. An archaeologist said it could be the city of Cariay, described by Columbus as a center for gold artisans.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:31 - ID#300202)
Getting bigger Cdn headlines. Previously posted-"Kind of" Martial Law
to be imposed throughout Canada. I have addressed same with our local
member of Parliament-Peter Mancini- who has acknowledged that "it is a matter of concern." He will be meeting with the Banker's Assc. dealing with all issues I have gleaned from one particular Kitco wizard. He will
also be addressing security requirements by representing my concerns to
the Liberal Gov't in power. Todays news announcement made by the RCM Police had an acknowledgement that the potential for chaos is high & that our Fed Police Dept is on a high state of alert & will be cancelling leave for said members from 27 Dec 99 to 15 Mar 2000. We are being time
capsuled. Support our Federal Horsemen by buying Bart's Mounties. Canada woke up too late.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:31 - ID#147201)
General re Mint
Greatly appreciate the reference. I'll try on another metal. Charlie

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:34 - ID#20768)
Mike Stewart: New Highs / New Lows

Although I am not a trained TA, it seems reasonable to me that when markets take a big hit ( in either direction ) the value of this indicator will change.

For instance, recently the markets have dropped dramatically. Stocks which vary from normal trading ranges just slightly downward will trigger new lows; however, it takes a huge move to trigger new highs.

Therefor, I believe the major point of interest may be those stocks which trigger, in the current market, new highs.

Bob in DC

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:37 - ID#43185)
Down and down it goes

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:39 - ID#246224)
Now that Farfel and RJ are back together, here, ..
I can see we will be wasting more bandwidth listeaning to their own, their accolites' and detractors' barbed posts. May I suggest that in the interests of Kitco that you folks refrain from the bickering .. just simply ignore each other. This will certainly go a long way to keeping the site usable. Stick to topics, forget people.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:40 - ID#43185)
A grain of salt

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:44 - ID#384350)
Scito - AIDS In Africa
In Hoskins Report ( Oct ) says AIDS IN SA:

"All students at a Soweto high school test HIV-positive.

All 920 students donated blood and after testing it, found that they are all HIV-Positive...It was possible to keep it out of the press until now, but when this school tests 100% positive it was news and a reason for alarm. This shows that the transmission is far more serious than presumed, and if this is the case at one single school, what is the situation like at all the other schools in Soweto..." ( translated from Die Afrikaner 13-19 March 1998 ) .

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:52 - ID#215235)
What I know about TVX I read on this forum. Seems they had a court dispute over a mine. The court gave the opposing party 18% of the mine + the ability to acquire an additional 18%. Some on this forum the end of this suit would lead to a rise in TVX shares. It appears the opposite is true. Someone sold about 800,00 shares at the opening. The price of TXV is down only about 1/8 at my last viewing. That's about all I know. Hope this helps.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:53 - ID#229207)
Hi. How come the equities markets in the US are going up while the dollar goes down? This does not make sense to me. Aside from the insignificant potential benefit to US exporters, this is not good news for the US economy...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 11:59 - ID#246224)
EJ - just kibbitzing here but ..
.. EVERYONE IS CRAZY! That's why its so crazy. A mutually reinforcing dementia. Group think off a cliff. One day everyone will wake up and then the biggest collective "Oh, SHIT!!!" will be gasped as it all incinerates before their eyes.

Best be some distance away to watch this one.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:01 - ID#284255)
May the paths to your door be lined with pure GOLD.

It's the 16th here, so as early as I may be, - CONGRATULATIONS.

Here's a critter to go with your special tequila.

Many gulps to you on this special day.

Namaste Nick

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:02 - ID#269409)
@ Gunrunner, your 10:48
Help me here Gunrunner I'm completely confused. Many of the readers and participants here at Kitco, myself certainly included, are trying to understand the Gold market, ( and the broad economic issues worldwide that affect it ) and make appropriate investment decisions accordingly.

I realize that it's a minority view here to actually want honest objective analysis of Gold, rather than a highly politisized, agendized, propagnadized, spouting of monolithic one sided fantasy...

However, for those of us who DO appreciate an actual honest analysis, RJ has been one of the very FEW who has provided such objective commentary.
I consider him the most valuable contributor to this forum accordingly, though there are at least a dozen others who consistently provide valuable inputs as well.

Why do you and so many others insist on consistently insulting the man? It confuses me.

Why is it so evil on a Gold forum, for someone to ocassionally point out the truth about what Gold is doing, has done, and may do in the future, using fact instead of dogma? In order to use this information to make wise investment decisions?

Or is the only valuable input supposed to be a single chorus of "paper will burn, short sqeeze, limit up, stock crash, Y2K, hedge fund short covering, Govt, is evil, bonds to collapse..etc. et al" ???

Doesn't it get old to see the same old rigid dogmatic refrains trotted out day after day for years on end? Isn't it refreshing once in awhile to hear from someone who actually KNOWS SOMETHING about Gold and WORKS IN the business of trading it professionally? Someone who can give an objective look at where it may go, by analysis of BOTH the up and downside potential?

I think that you and many others on this forum have to remember to keep the "L" in Gold. I can understand faith, doctrine, loyalty, and firm belief in diety.....I cannot understand however, why so many insist on carrying this concept into an evaluation of the Gold market.

Those who are perpetually bullish re Gold, ( or ANY market including stocks for that matter... ) are Fools.

RJ has the best record of Gold market calls and analysis on this forum.
He's done the best job of putting ALL the facts forth re supply/demand issues. He's done the best job of keeping the market in perspective using the bright light of facts, history, and logic instead of dogma and propaganda.

This is valuable. The search for Truth is always valuable. Whether it's Gold or any other subject we seek to learn about.

Propaganda is worthless.

I am distressed that so many seem so deeply wedded to a love of single minded propaganda. A desperate need for one sided preaching from self appointed "Guru's" ....Guru's who I might add have a terrible record of accuracy. Even in the conventional world of equities analysts I don't see this to the extreme that we see it here. Sad. Not healthy for Gold's image either..... gives the investment world at large, a skewed view of those of us who appreciate Gold's finer points as being a bunch of "Whackos".

I shall be gone for a time....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:03 - ID#333126)
the almighty DOW
it's up 80!

as i recall, this is approaching a major support/resistance line ( though i'm no TA expert )

on the lighter side of things, all on kitco know about the dow/gold ratio, but has anyone thought of using other commodities? hehe...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:04 - ID#389387)
golf vs gold
Since Bart has officially sanctioned this as a Golf forum ( . Remeber, this is a golf discussion group, not the Jerry Springer show. ) the following colloquialisms will hereby be adhered to:
POG  Putt on Green
PPT  Polite Playing Through
Platinum  Titanium
Silver  Steel
Gold  Graphite
Silver - Aluminum
goldbug  duffer
gold lease rate  greens fees
shorts  Bermuda shorts
long  1, 3 or 5 wood
oz  yard
$600 oz gold - hole in one
$450 oz gold - double eagle
$425 oz gold - eagle
$375 oz gold - birdie
$350 oz gold - par
$300 oz gold - bogie
$275 oz gold  double bogie
gold shorting  divot
equity market  slice
bond market  hook
hedge funds  shank
CBOT  Masters Tournament
volatility  handicap
namaste  caddy speaks
gulp & a puff  gulp & a puff

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:05 - ID#246224)
For your enjoyment
From: P. N. Gauthier>
Subject: Response to Not from the US? this is your thread!
Date: 1998-10-03

I have lived and worked in Japan for 6 years ( for one of the world's largest companies ) as an engineer and global business consultant. As a 45 year old executive with a career built on rational problem solving, I am faced with an irrational situation that is almost too horrible to talk
about. To understand the Japanese mindset and interpret the true nuance of the language and culture is somethings Americans are not good at.

1. 100% of all government surveys and corporate statements are for saving face and "image" only. This does not mean that they are lies in the Japanese image of lying. In the western image, they are false statements. In the Japanese image, they are hopes for the future. To discuss bad news is culturally equivalent to suicide. You can read the "whys" of this in the near future from other articles I'll be writing about the Japanese approach to y2k-only the Japanese would make a cartoon of a smiley face on a computer screen and call it y2k awareness. Suffice it to say that effort is being made by major utilities, telecommunications, international transportation and international banking to maintain the external image of Japan. The problem is that Japanese industrial and manufacturing strenght is based on automated production to minimize direct material costs. The major manufacturering executives are still in denial and assesments of automated systems have only started recently-this year.

2. As electronic and industrial parts makers to the world, many Japanese companies are falsely issuing "no problem" compliance statements to any customer who asks for component compliance information. I have personally witnessed a major industrial automation and control manufacturer give an international customer a "fully compliant" report on a 7 year old building automation system without ever testing the system. The Japanese phrase "mondai nai" or "no problem" is the
traditional Japanese business style. of answering any request from a customer. If problems happen later, it is considered an opportunity to build a better relationship with the customer by solving the problem together. However, you must never let the customer worry before the problem happens...I know you think I am kidding, but I am deadly serious. So, the resulting problems for global manufacturers using Japanese electronic parts, components, and relying on JIT ( Just in Time )
delivery are going to be in for a global shock when the Japanese manufacturers are unable to deliver just in time because of the breakdown of their own networks of vendors who have also failed to remediate their automated production lines. The volume of PCBs ( Printed Curcuit Boards )
delivered to American companies by Japanese vendors is enormous. These cannot be manufactured by hand. They will not be delivered on time and it only takes a few days without parts to stop a complete industry ( i.e. Automobile ) . Remember, the current Minister of Finance has stated that the first priority to improve the Japanese economy is to begin clearing the massive debt. He said the same thing when he was Prime Minister in 1993. Things move very slowly here when action is required, but many Japanese companies will not make it to the year 2000 because the global market forces at work now will force the Japanese economy to implode before then. The lack of understanding of the importance of the Japanese economy to the global economy is nothing short of stupidity. Sorry for the bad news. If you are a glutton for punishment, you can read some soon to be published articles that explore this dismal topic further

From: PNG
Subject: Response to Asia's future/Our Tech Problem
Date: 1998-10-14

After a recent post, I received an extraordinary amount of mail. The lack of information from Japan was disconcerting to many and I'll try to get more news out in the future. I live and work in Japan with one of the world's largest companies. Last week I was in the office of the man responsible for the enterprise systems for the global web of factories of an electronics giant. He waved his arm at the massive room full of programmers and said, "All these people are writing software that won't run after the year 2000. They just don't know it."

On the other hand, two recent articles in Japanese magazines state that the Japanese discovered the y2k problem in the 1980's and have been remediating for years as part of their maintenance and upgrading programs. The magazines are serious IT magazines and that went on to state that some banks deliberately misled western banks to hide their long-range remediation plans. An IBM ( Japan ) executive was quoted saying that ( I must paraphrase the translation ) it is obvious that U.S. systems engineers are less organized /efficient than Japanese IT people. The gist of the article was that Japan leads the world in y2k preparedness and the reports of Japan's demise from y2k by western consultants and bond rating services are greatly exaggerated.

Now, back to the other hand again, since Japanese corporate and social structure dictates that job positions are based on age, not ability, top IT managers began their careers in the accounting department. If you are old enough to remember, computers used numbers and accountants used numbers, so fledgling computer departments in the 1970's were managed by accountants. Today, their grasp of manufacturing is limited, particularly in Japan where vertical ascension follows a very tight corridor of specialization. Do you remember the manager in the first paragraph? I asked him how the factory automation and facilities were progressing with embedded systems. He asked me what embedded systems are.

Back to the other hand again, the published general results of recent survey indicate that 70% of Japanese manufacturers completed remediation July , 1998. That's right, 70% were finished 3 months ago. So, there you have it. Japan leads the way. Japan is poised to conquer the world as
the only industrialized nation with the ability to smoothly produce goods and services plus collect and dispense money in about 14 months from now -according to the survey.

I'll have an English web site ( from Japan ) up in about one week. If you are interested in some insights into the current financial crisis, the y2k situation, trends and cultural explanations to better understand the impact the world's 2nd largest economy has on you, send me an email and I'll let you know the address when it's

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:05 - ID#222186)
CRAZY... [Allen(USA)]
Wise adage: "When stocks go up, bonds go up, gold goes up... then at least one of them is a lie." A grand deception in the making.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:10 - ID#212197)
International Hedge Funds
Are these international funds in legal terms "American" corporations?
What if they are legally operating out of Liechtenstein or Bermuda?

Wouldn't that be interesting to find out?

Principally, I think, as far as discussions are concerned, the problem is always the market and never one's own opinion. In this sense, all opinions are welcome. Unfortunately, this doesn't mean that our personal opinion is always right and the market is always wrong.

P.S.: what's this TVX story with the court decision which the market didn't like?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:11 - ID#410198) carefull of body does anything for nothing.....sounds like a lost
leader to me....IMO

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:15 - ID#376288)
Gollum-thanx for the heads up!
Found on today's Financial Times site
and excerpts posted under the Fair Use rules...

By Paul Solman and Kenneth Gooding

The London Metal Exchange, the world's premier metals trading centre, plans to introduce regulations to stop hedge funds and other big speculators manipulating the market by short selling
This has caused concern among metal producers. David Humphreys, chief economist at Rio Tinto, the world's biggest mining group, pointed out last month: "With $120bn under management compared with the combined value of LME warehouse stocks of less than $2bn, it is clear that these funds have more than enough muscle to move metals prices substantially."
[The LME] said there should be a financial deterrent against the threat of manipulative behaviour by large speculative short position holders
The LME suggests that margins of up to 150 per cent of the initial contract value might be imposed, on which no interest would be paid, and these might be maintained even for a time after the positions have been closed.
If any organisation or group acting in concert accounted for more than 50 per cent of the LME stocks, the penal margins might be appropriate.
"The objective of penal margins would not be to prevent the emergence of large positions, which may be needed for genuine reasons, but to protect against their misuse to manipulate the market."

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:15 - ID#269409)
Brother Allen
Re your 11:39... May I respectfully suggest, that there is a philosophical struggle that goes beyond individual animosities. The struggle is between a view of Gold market analysis that embraces objective review of all market factors and history, vs, cult like one sided dogma.

I know this is my own struggle with Kitco. I like to hear all sides. All views. I have never suggested any legitimate viewpoint should be censored.

The best way to get at real "truth" involves getting all the data out on the table, and doing critical analysis to weed out the "garbage" from the factual. When someone spouts "Short sqeeze / limit up" day after day for a year, or "all out stock market crash coming next week during the Eclipse" over and over.......and both are proven to be full of nonsense, it's right and even MANDATORY to point out the folly and failure of their points of view.

Otherwise we muddy the waters with all viewpoints seeming equally valid, which they certainly are not. The most valid perspective is the one which proves to be true and correct.

Hardcore Communist propagandists never succeeded in convincing the people that their stomachs were full and their houses warm, when they were starving. People shoudl ALWAYS point out when the emperor has no clothes.

This is a good thing not a bad thing.

This is why we have debate in politics....this is why we have peer review in science...this is why we have massive medical studies to prove that a medicine or therapy works instead of just believing on faith.....

Critical review is our friend. So is the truth, where ever it may lead.

Gone for a time for real now......

John Disney
(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:15 - ID#24135)
I must be an idiot ..
Im weak .. thats the problem .. always been weak..
Ten minutes before market closed, bloody gold jumped
up and I bought back into a lot of stuff .. from
being half cash.
Im afraid I walked into one.. unless gold can make
it through 300 with a flourish ..
.. whats wrong with me ? maybe there's a way
I can blame this on Farfel ..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:16 - ID#365216)
to RObnoel
I don't understand your post. Be careful of what gimmick?
Do you know something about Certified Mint?
Please explain. thanks.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:19 - ID#43185)
The root cause of the chaos in the markets has been the dollar being too high in it's relationship to other currencies. This has fostered the yen carry trade, the gold carry trade, the growing trade deficit, the inability of foreign economies to keep their investment dollar at home, the growth of the derivatives bubble, the deflation in commodity prices in US$ terms, etc.

Therefore a lowering of the dollar is good for economies in general, and will eventually be good for growth and earnings.

On the downside it tends to be inflationary, but the markets have been more worried about deflation.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:22 - ID#212197)
@Dutchman: Thank you for your TVX Input.
I tend to think I buy more.
Does anyone know if this disputed mine is in production or just in exploration ?
As far as gold mines and especially physical gold is concerned I always hold on to farfel's: "I DON'T CARE I BUY MORE". But with stocks I want to be more careful than with the physical stuff.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:23 - ID#24135)
What can I say ?
Yesterday My son said for me to take november calls
on the sp500. Of course I did not do it .. he laughs
now while I cry ..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:23 - ID#284255)
Just have to plug this one.
With a recomendation like this.
And this guy is in the business.
Nick -

I've seen hundreds of articles. Most I scan. The better ones I read.
Still better ones I bookmark. For the still better ones, I copy the URL into
my link list. The very best articles I print out to share with others
including those without Internet access. I have bestowed the highest honor
to this article.

Thanks, Rich
And the article that's well worth the read?

And while we're on the subject.
I almost missed this one.

Trust Us, Say Biggest U.S. Banks. Just Because.

"Did you know that . . . Banks already have contingency plans in place? These plans identify pre-defined solutions to handle many potential business disruptions and are being updated to prepare for an orderly transition into the year 2000 for bank customers."

But these contingency plans have not been made public. So, let me guess.

"The banking industry has prepared a 3 by 5 card for every bank teller in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, plus an extra to use as a spare in case of an extreme emergency. On each card are these words: 'I'm sorry. Our computer is down.' Each teller is to say these words whenever someone steps up to get some currency, correct his account, or in other ways bother the bank."

Ever heard about road-rage?

Well here comes one huge grat big glob of angst.

When they wake up, they're going to be screaming.

But I want it! It's mine! I deserve it!
I want it now!!!!!

They're going to be spiting the dummy big time.


RJ & F

Hasn't this all been said long ago?
Definately nothing new.

T'is a real shame as the true potential is still there.
Hiding like a nugget under the rough cut surface.

Peace rather than vain words.

I choose no side - as others should.
The vacuousness of such bandwith is futile.

We all have our opinions.
Far better to hold them close to your heart.
And talk of gold and other earthly things.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:30 - ID#317193)
Dis...if you have the time...
Could you give me the symbols on the Johannesburg exchange for a few of our favorites? I can check my broker.

No, I have not bought back yet and have no idea if I'm right or wrong. Still looking for $285 or $305.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:31 - ID#43185)
DOW +110
bonds down, dollar down, PM's up, oil mixed

Any time now....

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:37 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ Island reversal on chart of T-bonds
What do you think of T-bond chart?... 8 day island...thinking of shorting big time... any thoughts?....

Anybody....Is Clinton going to sign this budget bill or not?...IMHO this guy might do something real stupid!... like veto it to "show" the voters he still has the POWER...that could be disaster for all the markets...esp. with option expiry tomarrow..

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:44 - ID#212197)
@Gollum: I found Your concise post from 12:19 very informative.
It almost should continue into a prediction concerning bonds.

Bonds almost certainely must come down, as soon as the downside which you mentioned, the higher inflation rate, hits the fan.

Practical conclusion: go short on bonds.

Do you agree?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:46 - ID#153110)
Y2K is a consequence of governing by war powers, of government usurping to itself the power to legalize its fraud and the fraud of its beloved among the corporations. When fraud becomes a way of life, the liars no longer know they are lying. It becomes institutional, as in Japan. Garbage In; Garbage Out. Lies In; Lies Out. Mother Nature always tells the truth. And you lie to her at your own peril.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:54 - ID#284255)
Please could you send me an email.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:57 - ID#24135)
This may sound strange ..
.. I dont know the symbols .. this
exchange is less preoccupied with
symbols than the US markets ..
Harmony is harmony .. hows that for
a symbol.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:58 - ID#348257)
observationes del sueno
Silverbaron's chart posted a few days ago with the implied "inverse head and shoulders" in the XAU may be maturing now. I was looking for XAU to come back to 70-71 to confirm this neckline as new support. Today looks like its bouncing off it. Gold may be all up from here. Perhaps the price breakdown from end July to early Sept was a "hook" - the last gasp of the bear in the gold equities, and a shoveling opportunity for the dealers and specialists. "Back the trucks up boys, let's get us some of these shares..."

As I said before the opening this morning, and have been saying for a week now - next stop DOW 8400. With 8900 waiting in the wings.

I don't know which I'd rather have a dollar for every time I've heard it?...

The name Monica Lewinsky

The word Deflation

or that there will be a "Crash" in October.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:59 - ID#284255)
Funny that.

My swing is pointing to going long.

Looks like we're entering an accumulation phase.

But I've got this nervous queasy feeling.
That will probably ammount to naught.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:59 - ID#43185)
At some point bonds must fall. There is no question of that. The difficult part is determining when. We still have the unresolved Japan situation among other things that may tend to hold bond prices up a bit longer. There is also a continuing fear of global recession and it's implied deflationary impact.

Once these fears ease, the bond markets will come down very fast. There is a lot of leverage in there to unwind.

The faster the dollar declines, the sooner foreign money will pull out,
which in turn will cause the dollar to decline even faster, and bond market will turn into an avalanch.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:59 - ID#317193) simple...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 12:59 - ID#339274)
FWIW OEX reaching for 520,SOX still on a tear,Banks coiling
to go up,XOI rollling over to the down side.
XAU bounced on our way to 67 and 63.
Have a great day

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:00 - ID#410198)
General....I have nothing bad to say about CM,my question is when some one sells something at cost
or in some cases below cost there has to be a most cases its to get your phone number so they can call you with the latest flavour of the month at a later dealer I can't stay in business selling at cost.....then again I don't clients phone number

John Disney
(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:01 - ID#24135)
how can we be so smart but wrong so much ..
.. We all have thousands of reasons
why gold should soar !! but it lays there
like a limp banana .. I think we are
missing something.

The Hatt
(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:01 - ID#381261)
Rothchilds behind new policies on LME!
This is called removing the resistance before a major upside move develops. Best news for gold in the last two years!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:02 - ID#246224)
Yes and yes. But..

Your expressions betray you. If you REALLY practiced what you preached just now you would never use the words you did in describing 'cult like behavior' vs 'all views of the market'. Any historian of science will tell you of all the 'sciences' of the past which were entirely 'rational' to their proponents, yet today look ridiculous to our way of thinking ( which will look ridiculous to those 300 years from now ) .

My encouragement to all participants in debate is ..


( sorry swirl ;- )

State your opinion with reasons. Counter point. Agree upon a test. Let what happens happen. Compare notes. If afterwards things didn't turn out for the other guy .. don't shove it in his face, gertude. Why not have a discussion rather than a fight? The other guy probably has a FEW POVs, facts or ideas that NEVER entered your fuzzy head. No one gains by polarizing people.

It should be pointed out that opinion is the predominate in our culture. Thinking is a tool. We all get stuck on our own ideas. Some of us more than others. I'm an expert at it. Get stuck in my little mud puddles all the time!

One of the biggest hinderances to working together is the "I'M RIGHT/YOUR WRONG" thing. There is only One who is Right, always. How foolish it is to get stuck on one's 'rightness' and someone elses 'wrongness'. The question is are you right with Him?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:03 - ID#246224)
Gianni Dioro
I understand that the heterosexually transmitted HIV variants have exploded in central Africa. This confirms it to me. South Africa ( Soweto ) not part of the central African region alarms me a great deal.

I have friends who were missionaries to Uganda recently returned. They told me that being an orphan was the most common life of a child. I hate to see this spreading, killing a whole generation at a time.

Sexual promiscuity is THE gateway. Those who do not maintain monogomous relationships for life are the ones who are at risk. Unfortunately, so very unfortunately, no restraints are tolerated in our oh so "free" world these days.

The wages of sin is death. Here, a perfect example. I am ashamed of America's role in promoting sexual license via the film and TV industries. Just as we have had no moral compass, we have so led the world astray..into a ditch.

Will there be no retribution for the millions of lives which were enticed to their ruin?

And no one in power will admit the truth of this publicly, let alone move to stop it. We much prefer the death of millions, the destruction of whole nations so that we can continue to flood the world with filth.

Do not morn the destruction of America. She has thumbed her nose at God, and walked in the imaginations of her own heart. As have all empires before her, so it will be with her as well.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:09 - ID#229207)
Allen (USA)
I don't mind that they're crazy, but that there are so damn many of them and they're betting against me. The market had much lower expectations of Q3 and Q4 earnings than they're seeing. The news looks pretty good. The press is off the World Engulfed by Financial Fire stories and on to other things, since the public has a short attention span for events unrelated to sex. Looks like Brazil's going to come out ok because of the coming international "bail-in." So what's to worry about? Let the bull go on...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:12 - ID#147201)
Sharefin re last chart
It looks like you have defined a good bear market rally. If you want to trade it, it takes guts and good eyesight. Straddle it and get what you can.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:13 - ID#343171)
RANGY looking short term break out, tiny volume though
Allen Rv16.1?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:13 - ID#343171)
RANGY looking short term break out, tiny volume though
Allen Rv16.2?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:14 - ID#246224)
Ya got a bit in the bucket, mate.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:16 - ID#288186)
The Hatt; I must have missed the story or post regarding LME and the
Roth's...Could u provide more info? TIA Fox-man

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:21 - ID#246224)
Indeed, or there abouts. Its looking like an 'age' buster indeed. Next stop: the Kingdom of Our LORD and His Christ. And all the elders knelt, casting their crowns before Him, saying, "Worthy is the Lamb that was slain to receive glory and honor and power and might.."

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:23 - ID#246224)
That's the problem with crowd madness .. the crowd part! Keep clear of the killing field, friend.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:27 - ID#266105)
seeking TED spread url

Higher levels of trading activity were reflected in the London
Bullion Market Association's statistics for September, which
showed the daily net clearing turnover at 34.0 million ounces
( 1,058 tonnes ) , 19 percent up on the 28.6 million ounces
( 890 tonnes ) recorded in August.

Anybody got a url for a TED spread quote and chart?

silver plate
(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:27 - ID#234253)
Great improvement
Bart: This morning Kitco works like lightning.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:41 - ID#229207)
Gollum re Japan
Thanks for explanation on the dollar down/DOW up perversity. Makes sense.

There was an article I read on the plane yesterday ( think it was The Economist? ) that explained how the Japanese government hides deficit spending by shoving a big part of the cost ( up to 30% ) of expensive make-work projects to local governments. So all of the largest Japanese cities are on the brink of insolvency from ten years of this abuse. Many have debt at 60% - 80% of annual revenue. The situation is like having NYC, LA, Houston, Chicago, and every major US city close to financial collapse all at once. If the government's going to bail out the banks, who's gonna bail out the government?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:44 - ID#325184)
Kitco Site
Bart, whatever you did I hope it continues. I have never seen this site work so fast. Congrats!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:47 - ID#410194)
With a great deal of anxiety taken out of the day to day worldwide business gyrations ( for now anyway ) , Silver will have to be watched!

The very tight Comex warehouse inventory situation could be brought back to the front burner at anytime now and there is a possibility of a quick price adjustment upwards in the near future.

Short term and day traders even have the luxury of protecting long futures positions in the 470-475 area. ( December contract )

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:47 - ID#270253)
You are right looking for stocks making new highs during periods of market weakness. They have obvious strength.

The point in looking at new lows is a measure of breadth, and momentum. At major tops in the Dow, where more than 2 1/2% of issues are hitting new lows concurrently, watch out below. This is a sign of rotten wood under the shingles. This rare event took place late in June and early in July of this year. It is a clear warning. Ignore it at your own risk. On the other side, when new lows dry up, momentum is returning to the upside. We have not seen that yet. Eight ot of ten days with New York new lows below 75 issues would do it.

This was not my original idea. It came from the Cabot Market Letter. I have just modified it slightly.

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:51 - ID#384350)
Allen(USA) - The Denegration of Society
...went into high gear when they started taking silver out of coin in the mid 1960's.

Men and Women have lost their traditional roles, and as a result promiscuity abounds.

The soundness of currency and the elimination of credit as we know it is paramount to having a sound functioning society. As society has been led to sin, there will be serious repercussions. It is said, it will happen.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:54 - ID#43185)
We may be about to move the Hecla lever. The shorts are trying to hold it down, but silver seems uncooperative.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:57 - ID#410198)
Anglo South Africa.....we are out of here.......not to worry JD...:-)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 13:58 - ID#30126)
What does the 'N' stand for? Not? Near? Inquiring minds wish to know...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:05 - ID#266105)
Armstrong on global liquidation, deleveraging

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:05 - ID#43185)
I may have mentioned this before, but it seems pretty clear that the way a person thinks is related to the language he speaks.

Our Indo-European languages make it easy to think in terms of temporal causality. We use a different for of the verb to speak of something that happened yesterday as opposed to what is happening now or will happen tomorrow. We can speak easily of what might happen, could happen or should happen.

Our language is geared toward doing engineering or physics or economics or cosmological philosophy. Unfortuneately it also makes us more materialistic.

The Japanese language is different. In Japanese one uses a different form of the verb to speak to a stranger, or a subordinate, or a family member, or a superior. It makes it easy for a Japanes to think in terms of one's place in society, honor, reverence toward ancestors, and social politeness.

It does not make for hard nosed bottom line accounting however.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:05 - ID#280214)
cloned from elsewhere on the Net
Date: Sun, 02 Aug 1998 08:12:54 -0700
From: Tom Davis
To: ""

I'm a retired NYC Police officer. I was born and raised in Brooklyn, NY. I retired from the NYPD in 1982 and since then have lived in a tiny town in PA. About my personal experiences with the two major NYC blackouts. As I recall I was about 14 in 1965. When the lights went out, the first thought I had was, "Wow, wasn't this neat." I remember my father directing traffic on Flatbush Ave ( the intersections were the scene of many accidents initially. ) It was in the summer, but nobody I knew missed their air conditioners ( nobody I knew owned them ) . We survived quite well, and the biggest story was how well the city cooperated during a crisis. ( This was welcome news following in the heels of the Kitty Genovese incident - Does anybody remember that? ) By the time the second blackout struck ( 1979? ) , I was on the force for nearly 10 years. I was called in from vacation ( no phone, a radio car came to my home and notified me ) and I was stationed as an intersection in Bushwick, Brooklyn. Bushwick is located just east of Bed-Sty, just North of Bronwsville ( home of Mike Tyson ) and just across the East River from the lower East Side. This was no easy assignment. As I recall, within the first hours, EVERY STORE ON BROADWAY WAS LOOTED. What wasn't stolen, was trashed. Many stores were set on fire. As I stood there "guarding" my corner, multiple gunshots were regularly heard. More than a few came close. In the chaos, I initially stood firm, as we all did. However, within 6-8 hours, the situation was beyond all hope. Frankly, there was nothing left to protect, and any attempt at arresting someone would have been a joke.

I suppose some will read this and think, is this how a major police dept. will react during chaos? Well, my friends, the answer is a resounding YES!!! We were told to ignore looters and concentrate on saving lives ( EVEN OUR OWN ) . I did bring a few people to the hosp. ( shot, stabbed, beat to hell ) , but my basic function was survival. Don't get me wrong. It's a misconception that all inner cities are filled with lawless hordes. I've met many fine people trapped in bad situations. Unfortunately, it's my experience, when the lights go out, a Pavlov type reaction takes over the criminal types. Out they pour into the streets causing the good folks to hide in their apts. As you can guess, Bushwick circa 1979 was one ugly scene. For nearly three days, chaos ruled. I'm talking the full Mad Max scenario. Having lived and "worked" through this ( and countless other examples of the actions of lawless mobs ) , I can tell you this. If you think the lights are going out ( I do ) and you live in a major city ( I don't ) , consider seriously a move. Y2K promises to be more than a 2-3 day "affair." Remembering Bushwick, I can tell you food was swiped off the shelves within the first hours and no trucks were making new deliveries, believe me. I've rambled enough. I'll add more should I recall, but I hope I described what a city can become during a blackout.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:12 - ID#341227)
@ALL...the litmus test is the idea itself...
...we throw ideas onto this forum. Some have merit, maybe others don't.

With respect to price predictions, I have yet to see a single poster on this forum with any better than 50% accuracy in their predictions. There are those that would declare otherwise...yet, we know who has done well and who has not. No need to review out-of-context historical need for public declarations other than satisfying some desperate yearning for regular ego massage from the crowd.

Yes, it's true that some forecasters are better than others. My own personal favorite has been GOGOLD as he seems to have the best track record. His prognostication of 325 by early November seems prescient at this moment, especially given the number of gold shorts that have declared that 300 is effectively an impenetrable barrier this year. I hope GOGOLD is underestimating the target.

I also like the fact that, in general, this particular "eccentric poster"
simply posts price predictions with little if any commentary about gold's absolute value in this world. Conceivably, he may not like the metal but keeps those thoughts to himself. I have yet to determine if GOGOLD is a bull or a bear for the precious metal.

But he really seems to know his stuff.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:16 - ID#176200)

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:19 - ID#287367)
"Cultural Differences Explained"
"Cultural Differences Explained"

Ausssies: Believe you should look out for your mates.
Brits: Believe that you should look out for those people who belong
 to your club.
Americans: Believe that people should look out for and take care of
 themselves.
Canadians: Believe that that's the government's job.

Aussies: Dislike being mistaken for Pommies ( Brits ) when abroad.
Canadians: Are rather indignant about being mistaken for Americans when abroad.
Americans: Encourage being mistaken for Canadians when abroad.
Brits: Can't possibly be mistaken for anyone else when abroad.

Americans: Spend most of their lives glued to the idiot box.
Canadians: Don't, but only because they can't get more American channels.
Brits: Pay a tax just so they can watch 4 channels.
Aussies: Export all their crappy programs, which no one there watches, to Britain, where everybody loves them.

Americans: Love to watch sports on the idiot box.
Brits:Love to watch sports in stadiums so they can fight with other fans.
Canadians: Prefer to actually engage in sports rather than watch them.

Americans: Will jabber on incessantly about football, baseball and basketball.
Brits: Will jabber on incessantly about cricket, soccer and rugby.
Canadians: Will jabber on incessantly about hockey, hockey, hockey, and how they beat the Americans twice, playing baseball.
Aussies: Will jabber on incessantly about how they beat the Poms in every sport they played them in.

Americans: Spell words differently, but still call it "English."
Brits: Pronounce their words differently, but still call it "English."
Canadians: Spell like the Brits, pronounce like Americans.
Aussies: Add "G'day", "mate," and a heavy accent to everything they say

Brits: Shop at home and have goods imported because they live on an island.
Aussies: Shop at home and have goods imported because they live on an island.
Americans: Cross the southern border for cheap shopping, gas and liquor in a backwards country.
Canadians: Cross the southern border for cheap shopping, gas and liquor in a backwards country.

Aussies: Are extremely patriotic to their beer.
Americans: Are flag-waving, anthem-singing, and obsessivelypatriotic to the point of blindness.
Canadians: Can't agree on the words to their anthem, when they canbe bothered to sing them.
Brits:Do not sing at all but prefer a large brass band to perform the anthem.

Americans: Drink weak, pissy-tasting beer.
Canadians: Drink strong, pissy-tasting beer.
Brits: Drink warm, beery-tasting piss.
Aussies: Drink anything with alcohol in it.

Brits: Are justifiably proud of the accomplishments of their past citizens.
Americans: Are justifiably proud of the accomplishments of theirpresent citizens.
Canadians: Prattle on about how some of those great Americanswere once Canadian.
Aussies: Wallow on about how some of their past citizens wereonce outlaw Pommies, but none of that matters after several beers.

Americans: Seem to think that poverty and failure are morally suspect.
Canadians: Seem to believe that wealth and success are morally suspect.
Brits:Seem to believe that wealth, poverty, success and failure are inherited things.
Aussies: Seem to think that none of this matters after several beers.

Canadians: Encourage immigrants to keep their old ways and avoid assimilation.
Americans: Encourage immigrants to assimilate quickly and dump theirold ways.
Brits: Encourages immigrants to go to Canada or America.

Canadians: Endure bitterly cold winters and are proud of it.
Brits: Endure oppressively wet and dreary winters and are proud of it.
Americans: Don't have to do either, and couldn't care less.
Aussies: Don't understand what inclement weather means.

Aussies: Have produced comedians like Paul Hogan and Yahoo Serious.
Canadians: Have produced many great commedians, like John Candy, Martin Short, Jim Carrey, Dan Akroyd, and all the rest at SCTV.
Americans: Think that these people are American!
Brits:Have produced many great comedians, but Americans ignorethem because they don't understand subtle humor.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:20 - ID#43185)
High on the mountain, another pebble begins to roll
14:00 DOLLAR LOWER, OFF 0.9% TO 117.60 YEN, FALLS 0.4% TO 1.630 MARK.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:22 - ID#341227)
THE GOLD BULL IS HERE...and TVX GOLD verifies it!
Today, I honestly expected TVX to trash based on the surprise, disappointing Ontario court ruling from yesterday. In the Gold Bear of yesteryear, TVX would have been thrown out like dirty dish water.

It would not have surprised me to see the stock dump to ONE DOLLAR today.
In fact, it seems to be holding steadily around $2.00 with surprising amounts of institutional interest. That is the hallmark of a Bull market...bad news is generally IGNORED.

I guess, at times, I still suffer from "Beaten Down Goldbug Syndrome."

Sometimes, it's hard to believe it...the Gold Bull REALLY has arrived!




(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:26 - ID#260389)
Glad to see you back. I hope everyone can avoid the foodfights because in the end we all have something to contribute. Hope you are right about the bull in gold.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:28 - ID#28021)
Web page:

Press release:

I agree with Farfel, that the performance today has been good. I bought some more at 1 13/16. The bounce in gold really helped this stock recover. back to work.....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:31 - ID#290172)
Mozel ~ "but BBC1 said" {:-)

This happened. While we could find no tapes to share, we were assured that they exist deep in BBC vaults ["Eyes Only" supposedly]; and rumor hath it that keepsake copies were spirited away by the "perps".

"In 1966 the British Broadcasting Company offered on their nightly news program a five-minute docu-feature on the complexities of spaghetti-growing in Italy.

'Throughout Italy millions of pasta farmers are working harder than ever before to harvest their crop before it falls prey to the pests that ravaged much of the crop last season,' an even-voiced announcer told his audience. His narration was the voice-over to BBC footage of farmers in broad-brimmed hats working their way up neatly trimmed aisles of spaghetti plants in the Italian farmlands, plucking sun-ripened strands of spaghetti from the branches and storing them in wicker baskets. 'Special efforts have been especially taken this year to ward off the spaghetti weevil, which has been especially destructive in recent years.', he said.

Not a word was mentioned about levity or satire; no smiles were cracked, no giggles escaped, and millions of British viewers accepted, if with some surprise, the fact that spaghetti grew on trees."
Felton & Flower's "Best Worst & Most Unusual", Gramercy Publishing, N.Y., 1984. P. 77

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:34 - ID#43460)
Don't worry, be happy! Prices are not really rising.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:35 - ID#389387)
Next The End Of The World As We Know It.
Humankinds watershed events in history inevitably change the world as we know it. The bible, Magna Carta, discovery of America, the Industrial Revolution  you get the idea. The Y2K computer problem will produce just such a watershed event. I view the power grid, telcomm, resource distribution and energy sectors as extremely vulnerable. If these exhibit more than a 10% failure rate then we will be in deep kimchee. As a computer industry software professional I see remediation efforts fail for one primary reason, The SCHEDULE IS FIXED. Software and hardware projects almost never deliver on time ( forget on budget ) . No matter if you throw more resources at the problem.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:35 - ID#410198)
BART...I'am impressed sites been kicking butt all all I need is to trust your prices..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:36 - ID#194311) he really paid to write this drivel
just another bandwagoneer economist.....worse though he is short metals up the yin-yang.

He talks about hedge-funds activities as though he is not a part of it and in the same breath mentions his "computer models". He'll fry his brain with pseudo-math and greed like the rest of them....burn paper burn.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:38 - ID#229207)
@2BR02B? & Gollum
2BR02B?, Armstrong's not too encouraging on gold and silver, with his deflationary cash is king argument. I still think those that argue for a stampede from paper underestimate what a whacking the dollar's going to take. Gold and Silver may be better than holding cash dollars.

Gollum, yes you have shared your views on the influence of language on culture as it relates to financial matters. The Japanese apparently don't have a word that means, "enough" because if they did, the Japanese people would have long ago used it on their policiticians.

What do you think of Armstrong's views? I'm not sure if his argument is consistent with your rattlesnake market, which by the way needs a few hours on a rock in the sun to warm up and get moving again. He seems to think we're seeing a steady liquidation, not a whipping back and forth looking for safety. But I could be reading him wrong.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:38 - ID#343171)
my long held negative bias against TVX has been supplemented and re-affirmed!
what is with their urine colored web site?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:39 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Price of gold back then..................332
Price of gold today......................297 ( went as low as 272 in August )

Date: Tue Oct 14 1997 00:27
RJ ( ..... ?? ..... ) ID#411259:

You know my view: Gold will make new lows when the world wakes to another announcement of massive CB gold sales. This is a pretty simple and basic view, not even all that clever, one that seems to be held by a few others hereabouts. I am truly amazed that some others would pooh-pooh this and then speak of gold stocks. A bit of the tail wagging the dog there I guess. Spot moves the market. The cash gold price drives the futures market, and a bit less directly, the gold mining stocks. It all flows from what one is willing to spend today for an ounce of the stuff. When some of the largest and most conservative holders of gold, who have never sold into the open market, would rather have what the gold may buy than the gold itself, look out below. Gold is dirt cheap here. Everyone should buy some, why not? I just think it will go lower before going much higher.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:40 - ID#43185)
And now for something a little lighter, er uh, heavier

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:40 - ID#254288)
As referenced here at K1 earlier; "LME moves to stop manipulators"

First you can register free at the Financial Times and read this article at
The piece is under their MARKETS section, 6th one down from the top.

The Chief Economist at the worlds biggest miner, Rio Tinto said......................................... "With $120bn under management compared with the combined value of LME of less than $2bn, it is clear that these funds have more than enough muscle to move metal prices substantially.

The LME deals with base metals, how about going after shorts of precious metals.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:41 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Price of gold back then...............312
Price of gold the week after.........302
Price of gold today.....................297 ( went as low as 272 in August )

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 17:58
farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD market... ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

In the face of all these ostensibly "negative" fundamental developments, gold's performance today remained encouraging...a mere $1.50 drop in the spot on relatively light volumes and the XAU drop of approx. 3.3 ( though fairly hefty in percentage terms ) occurred on notably mild volumes as well. Again, there was no mad rush to dump gold today and some of the juniors had virtually little to no volume at all. THIS MUTED REACTION REPRESENTS A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE GOLD MARKET. IT IS FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A FAST DEVELOPING GOLD BULL.

On the basis of some fundamental news I think will break early next week, I am upgrading my EXTREME BULLISH view on gold to the category of LOOK OUT ABOVE!



(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:45 - ID#43185)
Some of what Mr. Armstrong says makes sense, but he has a not so well hidden secret agenda that colors much of his commentary when it comes to precious metals.

A collapse in the bond market means bond paper gets converted back into cash paper. There are tons and tons of bond paper stacked up.

It is hard to equate the emergence of all this cash into the market scene with a bearish call on metals.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:50 - ID#237299)
From an earlier post today about the way the Chinese are
dealing with their Y2K problem:

"To tackle the "Y2K" problem, China has set up a central
command body and ordered ministries to draft plans for
industries under their supervision."

A yes. Good to see that they are tackling it in the same way as the west. That's it! We need more ministries!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:53 - ID#284255)
Snipped from another forum
I was going to let this one slide. I am confused. The Pentagon now says all
is fine and they will be compliant in 1999. That is good news, I think.

But I have to question how? Just a month ago I was on the U.S. Army's Y2K
website. They were at 28% complete and had been working for two years. How
are they going to get the other 72% done in 1 year?

In a report from the Subcomitte on Government Reform, Senator Horn's famous
report card, the DOD wouldn't be near done until 2001.

I was on the U.S. Navy's web site two weeks ago, they were just in the
process of inventorying their mission critical systems to compile for a
report for Secretary of Defense William Cohen. These reports were due, I
believe by Sep. 30th 1998. All DOD components were supposed to compile these
statistics and forward them to Cohen. Perhaps after they took a look at what
needed to be done it wasn't as bad as they thought?

Many of these web sites are now closed to the public, last month they were

Perhaps it means all of the Generals now have shiney new Macintoshes :- )

I am a little less Pollyannish than I used to be. When the President pointed
his finger at me ( via television ) and said he NEVER had inappropriate
relations with THAT woman. I really believed him, I thought, who in their
right mind would make a statement like that that could be so easily proven
false later. I am now very disappointed.

I am seeing some good news come around, the banks say they are in good
shape. The Pentagon say's things are coming together. I really want to
believe that. I'm not a doom mongerer. Its one thing to be concerned because
the Government is doing little about the problem, and then get concerned
because they are passing all kinds of legislation that recognize the
problem. Its kind of their d*** if they do and d*** if they don't.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:56 - ID#22584)
SDRer Spaghetti Growing
It's true, I saw it myself. It should be noted however, first that it was not shown on the nightly news but on a weekly news review program. Second, that particular week the show fell on April 1st which seems to be a much more significant date in the UK than in the US.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:56 - ID#153110)
All these things that degenerate have their origin in government by war power. Which is founded on paper and usury and commenced with the proffer of usury to induce the unwary to take the paper.

When the government is against the Law, what things ought it do to preserve itself ? List those things and see.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 14:57 - ID#229207)
Can't seem to break over 8100.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:00 - ID#343171)
Clinton asks Arafat if he wants piece
his answer: "not now I'll just wait for you in the Rose Garden"

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:01 - ID#343171)
damn I'm funny
err sorry...
go gold

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:02 - ID#329186)
Jack (LME moves to stop manipulation FT
Jack,I picked that up and mailed them asking why the did notbring the GOLD SHORTS to the publics attention and suggested they read Ted butlers ( golden eagle ) letter to fed chairman "greenspan" if they were in any doubt. ( which i am sure they are not ) They also should take a look at Murphy on golden eagle which highlights the FT Planted story on saturday also the difficulties Jude Wanniski has getting papers to "do " anything about GOLD. and concluded that a prize should go to the first newspaper to print something realistic about gold.
conclusion.they are all in cahoots


(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:10 - ID#266105)

Armstrong-- so he's on record with a scenario as gloomy
as the most bearish of bears albeit with a
twist-- that that works out to the detriment
of precious metals. We see what unfolds in
the passing days, in the fullness of time.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:10 - ID#153102)
@Pu'ukani @SDRer
From the time that Orson Wells demonstrated the power of media to deceive with his radio production of an invasion from mars, American broadcasters have been barred from spoofs.
Good thing, too. Otherwise, some wag would produce a clip of man on mars. And a few more might be waked up to the moon walk fraud.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:11 - ID#43185)
Never believe anything until you see the official denial.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:13 - ID#266105)

Paula Jones-- close, but no cigar.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:14 - ID#20768)
Mike Stewart: Thank you. That makes much sense!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:16 - ID#215235)
CNBC just reported that the Fed has lowered both the Fed Funds and the discount rate by 25 basis points.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:18 - ID#254288)
Realistic, re, RJ's October 14 @ 00:27

While it is true that conservative CB's are loaning gold for a pittance and wild-eyed hedge funds are selling gold short, one has to consider what they are buying with the metal.

Having seen the destruction of currencies as of late, I'd have second thoughts, especially when misguided schemes have been openly reported by the near death LTCM disaster, just to mention a few.
While I'm not saying that LTCM shorted gold -only they and the lenders know-; they surely got whammed shorting something and playing with fiat currency fires.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:18 - ID#284255)
But we'll have to wait 15 months for that ( :- ) ) )

And then will we believe them?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:19 - ID#350179)
Just passed 8200 ( zoom )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:20 - ID#20767)
Just announced on radio!

.... on WTOP ( 1500 )

Bob in DC

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:20 - ID#21275)
The Fed having nightmares
These guys know they are in deep trouble. The full faith of the people in the dollar will go next away up gold

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:22 - ID#224363)
@Crystal Ball
Thanks very much...Being Canadian, I had a great laugh.

Seems like old home week here at Kitco with everyone coming back online. Now all we need is D.A. to pop in a tell us who's doing what out there in manipulation land.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:23 - ID#20767)
Further from WTOP:

Overnite Funds rate to 5%

Discount rate to 4.75%

Bob in DC

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:27 - ID#266105)

Xau like the fed action, turned on a mercury dime.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:29 - ID#284255)
Check your bank's star-rating - FREE!



(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:32 - ID#288186)
What will this do for PM's? How far up will this push the price of
30yr T-Bonds? How high will this allow the stock market to rise?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:33 - ID#258142)
Where is APH?
APH, you have a very good record of short-term forecasts, but your message last Monday was bit strange to me - S&P 650 coming Friday ( thats tomorrow ) . Same day I have posted a question regarding it but never saw an answer.
Date: Sat Oct 10 1998 07:53
APH ( Trading ) ID#255226:
Copyright  1998 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This week could offer some great buying and selling opportunities.
SnP - The SnP looks like it's in wave C down and Friday's rally brought it back to the downward resistance line. This chart looks remarkably like the ABC decline of 1987. In that case on the Friday of expiration of the Oct puts ( 10-16-87 ) wave C closed at a price that was 1.618 of wave A. If that pattern were to repeat itself the SnP would be trading near 650 by this Friday's close. The Dow should have no more then 40 -50 left in it. Sell the SnP above 990 use a 1000 stop if stopped out reshort on a new hourly low. Go for the Jack Pot. Buy out of the money Oct puts. I was buying out of the money oex Oct puts yesterday.
Gold - Buy Dec Gold 292-290, this is the top of the down channel on the weekly chart. A test of that channel is quite natural.
Silver - Heading for the gap near 460. Buy under 465 for a long-term hold
Oats- Love them Oats long from 110.25.
Date: Sat Oct 10 1998 11:52
Delphi ( @APH, 07:53 ) ID#258142:
May be, Im wrong, but In most cases expiration trashes as much options as possible. Having current call/put ratio for equities, isnt it more likely that S&P will close coming week higher, sending puts to the garbage can? I would not bet much on crash

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:34 - ID#208392)
Market Asks - Market Gets
Buy everyone! Buy! ( For tomorrow you may die. )
What a setup for Black Friday.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:38 - ID#410198)
Budget Deal Rose Garden Press Conferance....Fed Cuts all at the same time....I thought the Fed and
the executive branch did not work hand in hand ....yeah sure

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:39 - ID#21275)
Big Al decided to bail out all
his hedge fund frends

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:39 - ID#258142)
is +297, tick 1068, it's crashing up...

Bill Buckler
(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:39 - ID#256381)
Fed Funds and Discount Rate Cut
Here's the report on the Fed rate cut from Newsday - time 3:31 PM. Fed Funds down 0.25% to 5.0% Discount Rate down 0.25% to 4.75%. Last time I looked, the Dow was up 248 points.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:42 - ID#266105)

Dunno what the rate cut WILL do for PM's but what it *is*
doing is making the gold stocks suddenly perky across the
the board.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:45 - ID#284255)
Check out the PREM?

On a one minute time frame one can see it burst all the way up to over 50.
Approx 45 point move.

This is as good a push as when BC came on TV back last October.

Seems like they want the same again?

And the volumes have been exceedingly heavy since.
All those buy buttons being hit at the same time.

Folly, Frenzy and Fear..................

We'll soon be there...................................................

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:46 - ID#254288)

Such friends in need are fiends indeed! Yes INDEEDY.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:49 - ID#373403)
We are so close to a global recession, credit crunch, and deflationary spiral that we decided to lower interest rates in between meetings.

HOORAY!!!! Lets bid the price/earnings multiples up again on the stock market, more easy money!


What they say: We are so close to a global recession, credit crunch, and deflationary spiral that we decided to lower interest rates in between meetings.

What they hear: Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah, blah blah lower interest rates, blah blah blah.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:52 - ID#339297)
Big Al & deflation ...of financial assets
Big Al really hopes those banks learned a lesson from the recent debacle.
Unfortunately, he does not have time to wait to see cause his lovely
models are falling apart. Let's see .. 1/4 point rate cut is indicative
of a slowing economy which should not be good for banks. However, if
economy is not slowing and Big Al needs to give his hedge fund buddies
a boost...would not think banks/brokers is where you want to go. Go
Big Oil. We are going to start using that stuff like there is no tommorrow!!! Banks/brokers ...dead cat bounce!!!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 15:59 - ID#254288)
Big AL everybodies PAL

At 3:31 ET, YEN @ 116.82
At 3:52 ET, DOW up 356.58 ( 4.47% ) , XAU UP 4.26 ( 6.02% )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:00 - ID#266105)

Fed lowers rates 1/4%.

Markets hate it.

Fed lowers rates 1/4%.

Markets love it.

Somebody needs some Prozac.

Url on management of central bank selling of gold reserves:

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:04 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 15

Gold 784,059 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,359,369 - 67,407 troy ounces
Copper 68,037 - 159 short tons

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:10 - ID#403234)
Short and concise.
but I think your right.
( just perhaps not tommorrow )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:11 - ID#288186)
I don't think Bart will have any problems getting people to "hit" this site at
6:30pm ET. Alot of people will be lurking here to catch this latest
"hot" news! Fed lowers rates 25 basis pts. Hmmmmmmm. Mike Sheller,
you hit the nail on the nosey! DOW 8400 coming soon...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:12 - ID#423159)
anyone short spz before 3:15 -bad surprise
it looked like another 3:00 pm sell down-

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:15 - ID#339274)
FWIW OEX ready to kiss 520,Bankcalls just going through the
roof.Turning point day tomorrow
XAU in awaiting
This day was a good one

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:15 - ID#21275)
AG decided the best way to bail out his hedge funds friends
is to get the sheeples to buy their position out.
As I have said before AG & RR bears a major responsibility in this so called credit squeeze. They are flooding the world with dollars right now

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:18 - ID#71231)
Dow explosion
Will KO earn a penny more as a result?

Will anything happen differently? It just shows that the $ is going to die ahead of the EMU.

Market has not lost its buy reflex. Of course, most of the money is in index futures, and these are not driven by anything besides sentiment ( "good for stocks, bad for stocks" - nothing has to do with most popular stocks having a negative business value relative to market cap ) . I am sure we will hear alot about this market reaction.

Let's see when reality comes back.

The really slow reaction is in the gold and bond markets.

Swiss Franc ( IMM ) ( Globex ) Dec 76.60 76.60 76.57 76.60 +0.62 10/15/98 16:04 76.60 76.51
Deutsche Mark ( IMM ) ( Globex ) Dec 62.00 62.10 62.00 62.02b +0.53 10/15/98 16:05 62.02 61.98
Japanese Yen ( IMM ) ( Globex ) Dec 86.70 86.80 86.61 86.70b +1.03 10/15/98 16:05 86.80 86.61
British Pound ( IMM ) ( Globex ) Dec 170.24 170.28 170.24 170.24 +0.76 10/15/98 16:05 170.30 170.28
Canadian Dollar ( IMM ) ( Globex ) Dec 64.80 65.09 64.80 65.09 +0.33 10/15/98 15:59 65.09 65.00
US Dollar Index ( FINEX ) Dec 93.18 93.21 92.53 92.91 -0.46 10/15/98 15:05 92.96

Gold ( CMX ) Dec 300.80 300.80 300.50 300.50 +1.30 10/15/98 16:02 300.80 300.30
Silver ( CMX ) Dec 492.50 493.50 492.00 493.50 +1.50 10/15/98 16:06 493.50 492.00
Copper ( CMX ) Dec 72.80 72.80 72.80 72.80 +0.20 10/15/98 16:04 72.80 72.70

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:21 - ID#25490)
Philately - Another way to protect your capital, folks, as long as you know what you're doing.
lefty kiwi

I am wondering whether your friend, Toad, was involved in the Kasim Bono Independence Commemorative Stamp Issue?

Forgive me if I can't spell "Kasim Bono", it's not in any of my Atlantes!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:22 - ID#329186)
mozel@Pu'ukani@SDRer ID#153102
Power of the media ~ yes anyone considered if 7 how much subliminal messging is being used # or with the expertise on this site does anyone know if there is a way to check or monitor this "trick" ?
curious but it would explain an awfull lot


(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:23 - ID#258427)
Waiting for the (A)NOTHER SHOE TO DROP...
The great big "WHY"...cut the rates between meetings...almost a panic move....wonder what the other shoe stepped in??

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:25 - ID#21275)
My slow web broker
just informed me that I was able to short the spy just before the close.
Must be crazy.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:26 - ID#341227)
Gold Stocks Ready for Some Action??
Tried to obtain 400 Homestake November 15 calls 10 minutes before Market close.

Could not get any takers whatsoever for any of them!!!

Now that has NOT happened to me before.

Look for some interesting stuff tomorrow.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:31 - ID#230243)
Swiss Gold

Swiss Gold sales Unlikely before 2001, Independent Analysis Suggests Sale May Also be Modest.

The article was commisioned by WGC. If you already seen it, it is a good read and covers enough truisms about Swiss attitudes toward gold to be read again.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:32 - ID#25490)
It's all done with mirrors, smoke and digital photography.
So, the reaction of the US was to ban all spoofs after Orson Welles' broadcasts? That explains to me, for the first time, US gullibility. How can you know if you're being had if you've never been had?

Here we have been had by "radio-controlled sheep- dogs" and a wonderful con screened just recently called "forgotten silver." Alegedly discovery of old film from the turn of the century by a forgotten NZ producer. Lenid ( Sp? ) Molton was interviewed and he and other expert raved about this great find, and the meaning for the history of cinematography They uncovered a huge film set in Westland "used" for a 6 reel epic, and even a movie of Richard Pierce's airplane flight that predated the Wright brother's. The evidence of this was from a newspaper in the hip-pocket of a spectator that was "blown up and enhanced" by modern digital photography.

It was shown on TV and I was taken in. Oh yes! Marvellous. I was had. hmmmmm now I think about it, moonwalking?????

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:45 - ID#258427)
Could you "jiggle" the frames might be fun to see what happens to spot overnight!!...and...

Your new ISP system is really great...thanx a gold bar...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:49 - ID#341227)
TVX closes at $'s a Gold Bull.
Only a 1/4 dollar drop after news yesterday it must surrender as much as 25% of its gold mine in Greece.

In a Gold Bear, the stock would have trashed.

Lots of institutional interest on this one.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:50 - ID#288186)
Mike Sheller; I gotta tell ya, partner...You saved me from this market up
move. I was short 2 dec E-Mini's and got stopped out at 1020. I
had considered getting back in at 1030ish but remembered your posts
from last night and this morning. It made sense. Everyone was screaming
strong down movements near term for the DOW and equities markets. But you
gave sound and reasonable comments as to why it may be headin' towards
DOW 8400 very soon. I took your comments seriously. I just wish I had
closed out those positions at around 1003 price. I would have locked in
more profit! Thanks again! Fox-man
P.S. Don't mean to leave others out. I know others here posted short term
up moves in the equities...I still think we're in a confirmed bear market
in equities. Now....when to get back in with a new short..Hmmmmm

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:51 - ID#229207)
BillD -- Agreed. The message behind the rate cut is:
Much rumored U.S. easing underscores Fed's worries

The credit crunch brought on by hedge fund disasters was causing credit to dry up so quickly that they Fed felt it had to act fast. The problem is that the sudden cut sends a message that the Fed is worried. The way the cut was done may reduce confidence further and may actually cause lenders to tighten more. The risk has not been reduced, only the return on risk. The risk, or at least the perception of risk, can be said to have increased in proportion to the return on risk.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:54 - ID#317193)
Dear AL...thanks....
You have just assured that the US$ will drop like a rock. Now all those foreign folk with money in stocks and bonds will take their paper and go home. Golly, this is good?

AG knows all this. Why drop rates? Liquidity crisis? Probably, but you get no results from pushing on a string.

Gold should rocket...yes? Of course, but do not be surprised to see a sudden rush of gold on the market. We would not want to make this currency crisis explode ( or is that implode ) ...whatever.

Good trading...or is that gambling. Soon to short the S&P.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:55 - ID#153110)
Yep. Broadcast media is licensed in the USA. By war power.
Newspapers are not, but are subject to influence because they are part of conglomerates holding broadcast licenses. "Seeing is believing" is an old false saw taken quite literally by many here.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 16:57 - ID#229207)
As I was saying...
A rate drop per se should have the effect of losening credit. However, the circumstances under which the rate cut was made may undermine the intended impact of the cut. The Fed rate cut increases the return on risk, but does not decrease risk. Lenders may not lossen credit in response to the cut if they perceive risk has grown in proportion to return on risk. They may interpret the suddeness of the rate drop as the Fed signalling new, more serious risk conditions than creditors believed existed before the sudden rate drop.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:00 - ID#229207)
Text from expired page...
Much rumored U.S. easing underscores Fed's worries
By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve cut U.S. interest rates on Thursday, the first time the central bank has changed rates between regular policy meetings since April, 1994, in a bid to relieve a financial industry crunch that could threaten the U.S. economy, analysts said.

The Fed announced cuts of 25 basis points in the two short-term rates it sets. The move, announced at around 1514 EDT/1914 GMT, brought the federal funds rate to 5.00 percent and the discount rate to 4.75 percent.

``The Fed must have been much concerned about the drying up of capital and the impact on the economy,'' said Merrill Lynch chief high-yield strategist Martin Fridson.

``The greater and more legitimate concern for the Fed is that real businesses, companies that produce goods, would be deprived of capital,'' Fridson also said.

The inter-meeting move had been much rumored in the U.S. financial industry over the past 10 days as normal financing channels on Wall Street came to a virtual halt in the wake of the global crisis highlighted by the debacle at the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) .

Fridson said even healthy U.S. corporations had reported difficulties in securing financing from suddenly lending-shy financial institutions.

Fridson did not believe the second Fed easing in just over two weeks was solely aimed at rescuing the troubled U.S. financial industry.

``It would be hard to justify policy moves to save hedge funds managers,'' the Merrill Lynch strategist said, referring to a financial sector deeply wounded by the LTCM insolvency. ``But it is conceivable the economy will get a boost from a rate cut over some period of time.''

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:02 - ID#258427)
I dunno...EJ....
The "suddenness" of this move might be in anticipation of something more than just the everyday "credit crunch"...Another Hedge fund?

The DOW reaction was crazy...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:05 - ID#224151)
Allen(USA) re your 13.02
Amen Brother! IMHO everyone has a little piece of the trutch ( even the dull and the ignorant have their story ) .One can learn more by listening than talking....IMHO.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:06 - ID#258195)
For Nick@C
Nick- Further to my post earlier today, I have been thinking about how I could best add a comment or summary such as you seem to want to the data that are regularly posted by me. To tell you the truth I don't think it is all that easy to add much more than I do already.

As you know, I supply the previous day's ( London close ) Lease Rates for gold and silver each morning at 04:00 Kitco time Tues-Fri and 10:00 Sats. But there really is not much I can say about lease rates unless they show a dramatic change like they did on Friday 25th Sept when 1-month rates jumped from 0.75 to 1.75%.
I did comment the following day that it was not clear whether the jump was due to a rise in demand or a fall in supply of gold bullion. {My comment has in fact subsequently been endorsed by the World Gold Council who said in their October 98 Digest of Official Gold Holdings ____________".....the 1-month rate climbed from 0.4% to 1.7% amid reports that Central Banks were exercising a good deal more caution over the quality of their immediate counter-parties ( the bullion dealers ) and the ultimate beneficiaries ( the speculative short-sellers ) ."}
Regarding Lease Rates generally, I think there may be a degree of confusion between CAUSE and EFFECT by those who seek to interpret the figures without the benefit of inside information. As I said to you at 04:18 this morning, I feel compelled to do a little research into this topic, more to clarify my own thoughts than anything.

As regards the Dabchick Gold Index, I update the data each Saturday morning at 10:00am, and do in fact comment upon their significance as I see it. Normally this comment takes the form of drawing attention to changes in the level of the fiat dollar, and the effect that such changes have upon gold's dollar price as opposed to its True value. I have not so far found it appropriate to say any more than that, but of course will do so if and when needed.

What I will say now, though............and I thank you for the opportunity to say it that I believe we are witnessing a very significant time in the history of gold.
If you make the chart ( which Goldilocks has christened the Dabchick Gold Index ) of the monthly average true value of gold from the data I mentioned to you this morning, you will see that the Aug 92 low was at 69.3 and the Dec 97 low was at 69.2 And if you were to average the True Gold Index data of the last 6 days ( 7th-14th Oct which I will post on Saturday ) , you would see that the average of these last 6 days is 68.89 which is below both those monthly average 18-year bottoms.
In other words we may have penetrated a very significant support level below which there is only a vacuum. ( That should cheer F* up ) .
But do not forget that we have witnessed an 18-year old bear in gold, and we cannot expect a wily bear of that age and experience to drop down dead without a fight. It is also a bear which all here are hoping will, ( by some miracle of physiological transformation before it dies ) , be able to give birth to a healthy young, rampant bull.
Such a significant event is not going to come about easily. It will require, by the nature of things, a traumatic shift in the thinking of the masses. And a shift of that importance will only happen if they are forced to experience an event or series of events which makes them understand the effects of the errors of the last 20 years.
How this trauma could manifest itself in the markets is not yet known. And if the established institutions can prevent any such traumatic change,they will certainly do so. But I believe the Fed and all their cohorts will have to be extremely adept to prevent it coming about. To be more specific, I do not believe the gold bull market can be born like a lamb. The death of the bear market and the birth of the bull market will come out of unexpected and violent moves like the death throes of some immensely strong but aged animal dying in child-birth. Violent moves such as these could quite easily come out of the fiat currency markets, which have been manipulated on a massive scale culminating with the Yen carry trade world-wide. For such massive manipulation to be unwound without severe repercussions seems to me an impossible task with which I believe even Alan Greenspan cannot expect to succeed. And that process of unwinding could take our True Gold Index down to 65.0 which, if combined with a spike recovery in the US$ could take the dollar price of gold temporily down towards $225.
But I believe such a move down in the dollar price of gold is a necessary pre-condition for any LASTING AND SUSTAINED move up in the POG. IF it is achieved as I have suggested here ( and its a big IF ) , then the chart of the Dabchick Gold Index, when combined with some volume data which I use, ( on the method of the late Eustace Storey ) , could show the birth of a bull market in the True Value of gold with a life expectancy of 10 to 11 years.
Apologies for the length of this piece. I just hope it has held your interest to the end!
P.S. For Bart ...........My....that was faaaaaaaaaaaaaast!

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:08 - ID#384350)
mozel - Criminal Govts
First you cover up the crime
Second you change the laws to fit the crime
Third you become so omnipotent that if someone calls you a fraud or a criminal, you can say, "So what? Tough! What are you going to do about it."

At the same time you weaken the opposition ( oppressed ) by taking away their defenses. And more, you play the opposition off of each other - divide and conquer.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:13 - ID#411259)
..... Realistic .....

My post from October 14...... 1997?

And then gold did what I said it would, yes?

Happy anniversary indeedy.

F spot -

I am pleased you have found someone to put your faith in. GOGOLD appears a decent sort. As for accuracy, your emotions blind you to the facts, carved as there are now, into the mighty stone of history. Apart from platinum this summer, and some silver shorts last December, this market has done EXACTLY as I have said it would, and it did so for the EXACT reasons I said it would. Perhaps you would like to tell the group here who was warning of German gold sales last summer? Before the world or the wires were talking about it, I posted many thousands-o-words here warning of impending sales from the Hun. In December, Germany announced it had, for the first time ever, leased about 10% of its gold reserves ( about 330 tonnes ) for forward sales. I called for a modest rally early in the year and a retest of the lows, which will hold - which they did. The $6 blip below 278 lasted for only a day and then promptly rose back to the 278 support.

Throughout this time, all you have done is call for gold to explode and insult people. Pegasus was brethren to the rest of your predictions, all wrong. You said earlier that no "single poster on this forum with any better than 50% accuracy in their predictions." This also is not true. Witness APH, RJ, EB, Disney, Oldman, all these folks ( and many others ) have uncanny accuracy.

I can't recall a time when you have been right about anything, so in that respect, you have the most complete record on this site: you have been 100% wrong. How is it possible that you avoid even stumbling into a correct call? A myopic and gimpy dog could do better by pointing his withered paw one direction or another. Classroom teaching is a wondrous thing, but it is the real world in which we live, and the real world in which these markets move.

It is sad to see that you have missed the many tens of thousands of words I have written on this site regarding the specific and perceived value of gold. Perhaps more words written on the subject than anyone else here. No matter how hard you try to re-write history, I will be here to make sure you don't get away with it.

So either you missed this multitude of words, and now make pronouncements that have zero basis in reality, or you are not telling the truth.

Which is it?

I hope you have taken Bart's admonition last night seriously, and cease the discord on K1. He specifically asked last night that you and I conduct this on the K2 forum. I agreed to do so. Bart said you had agreed also. Lets stop this garbage on K1 and "get back to the business of the people", yes?

Righty O

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:14 - ID#29048)
CRB Index News

Joe Rosta, analyst with CPM Group, was more optimistic about the
upside, saying gold could trade as high as $310 or even $314 over the next month or so. "There's a definite technical upward bias in gold prices, and it has to do with underlying investment demand," said Rosta. "Both small investors and institutional investors are diversifying their portfolios."

Rosta said there still exists strong demand for silver, especially from
the key consuming nation of India. Rosta said that CPM has heard that in
the first 13 days of October, nearly 13 million ounces of silver went into India through legal channels.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:16 - ID#252391)
Will the CB/Hedge Fund Cabal hold the $300 line
Have to think the low lease rates are a sign that the Cabal is ready to do everything to contain Gold at $300. Over night session should be interesting. Last week we failed on Friday - tomorrow maybe we reverse that.

Dollar weakness has to be bullish for gold - the lid can not be kept on forever.

Bill Buckler
(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:17 - ID#256381)
Warning: Sharp inflation curve ahead?
That's a headline on Nando, posted at 9:38 AM EDT today. Strangely enough, the story linked to the headline has now "expired". The story dealt with the 0.3% rise in the PPI, of course, the biggest one month jump in a year.

Here's another headline from Nando: "Mortgage rates jump almost half a point in one week". 30 year fixed rate mortgages jumped from 6.49% to 6.90%.

And then there's the situation in Washington, where both the 1999 budget and the $18 Billion IMF handout were approved by Congress, almost in lock step with the rate cut. The fire is not discernible in detail yet, but the smoke is getting pretty thick, wouldn't you say?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:19 - ID#43349)
When that snake strikes, with it's teeth big
Ol' Mackies back in town.

Don't you know THIS is going to put some fire in the hole for anyone on the wrong side.

Volatility continues...

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:25 - ID#384350)
5 waves down, then ABC
This rally should wind up in the next couple of days. Tomorrow being an options expiration day could provide fireworks. Looking at the daily chart, I see 5 waves down and an ABC correction. We are still in the C wave. We are also roughly 89 days from July top, so I might expect the Dow to top either Friday or Monday. All IMHO.

Just got the Oct. 11 Harry Schultz Letter ( +32 16 533 684 ) and gave it a brief glance. He was expecting a sharp breathtaking bearmarket rally ( he was right there ) . He advises to lighten up on equities, sell last 1/4 on any rally to 8316-8753 range where he thinks rally will fizzle out.

He says, "Do you believe in Capital Punishment? If not, get your capital out of most stocks/funds on the rally that's about to occur." ( written late last week )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:26 - ID#389387)
Somewhere in Dallas...
The DOW surged forward faster than Kennedys head in the Zapruder film this afternoon. But the victim was just as dead. I think that AG fired the rate drop from the Book Depository because another hedge fund is reported to be seen sulking away from the grassy knoll. I hope tommorows opening bell does not toll for thee. Methinks sell into this rally of fools.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:26 - ID#410194)
Globex session
An amazing globex session is about to start in a few minutes.

Those who have been caught short in the European and Japanese currencies are trying to get out through the same door.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:26 - ID#341227)
@BART...God, will he never stop??
To RJ:

Yes, you are a genius.

Yes, you are perfect.

Yes, you never make an error.

Yes, You are God incarnate.

Yes, I have never made a correct decision in my life.

Yes, we will all continue to revere you from now through eternity.

Now, are you happy?

Will you leave me alone, take your other "handles," and go crawl back under your rock?



(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:28 - ID#229207)
Yup, the snake was warming in the sun for days. The very end of the Reuters story may say it all:

David Resler, managing director at Nomura Securities International, said... the inter-meeting move was ``more likely aimed at preventing an imminent catastrophe by a major player in the financial world rather than as a response to a specific event of financial distress.''


(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:28 - ID#317193)
Bill Bucker...thank you for the road map...
give the folks here a hint.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:30 - ID#410194)
Happy anniversary indeed.

Your Gold's predictions and analysis have been top-notch, whether we read them from a year ago or as recently as a few months ago.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:33 - ID#224363)
Bart...thank you very much
It really is nice to have the good old Kitco back...Lots of comments, interesting feedback, a little bit of name calling ( but not too much right guys !! ) .

And all of this just in time for round II of the interest rate reduction party that is sweeping the world.

Should be interesting between now and 2:30 PM Friday Afternoon.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:38 - ID#258142)
May be you can share some new ideas with us ( besides IDCIBM ) ? Attack on one of the most valuable posters here is not appreciated

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:39 - ID#71231)
The incredible shrinking $
$ in

Yen -2.9000 115.8000
Mark -.0264 1.6131
Pound -.0017 0.5851
Swiss -.0101 1.3256
ECU -.0094 0.8240

15 min ago

Gold futures up a buck over day close

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:43 - ID#258427)
Dec Gold at $320
up $1.50

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:44 - ID#258427)
Keyboard error...make that $302
Three Oh Two...uh..yeah...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:45 - ID#254321)
Lexis-Nexis -- Big brother is private, not Federal, and probably (mostly) y2k compliant
All: This is a list of search databases from Lexis-Nexis. Enjoy -- but access to many is probably restricted in some manner.

It is my understanding that one of the goals of Lexis-Nexis is to have historical particulars on everyone in the United States -- birth date, SS#,mother's maiden name, all prior addresses, etc. All available to paying customers. What worries me is that many credit card companies use mother's maiden name to identify you 'as you' when you communicate with them. But -- what good is that level of privacy if it is compromised?

I do not know which databases at Lexis-Nexis have personal particulars such as the above, but rest assured that they do. I am also of the impression that you can have your particulars deleted if you request. Only problem is, there must be more than one database like this, and there is no reason for any new database owner to inform you that you are on it. --- Or for that matter, what they have on you. Might be a good idea to express your concerns to your congressman.

I guess the bottom line is that you should at the very least create your own unique passwords ( if you can ) for everything -- banking, credit cards, etc. Secondly, I think it would make sense for you to demand that your bank, credit card company etc., send you a letter in writing that they do not release your personal data to anyone without your written approval. Would be interesting to see their response. At the very least they should be acknowledging what they send to the federal government.

Right now medical records require approval by the patient before they are allowed to be released. But -- as more and more hospitals go to electronic records -- the likelihood of medical record abuse will go way up. It has already started in the life insurance industry -- people getting turned down for medical problems they wanted to keep private between doctor and patient -- but now it is a doctor-insurance company-patient relationship, like it or not. Forget Dr. Marcus Welby.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:45 - ID#252150)
EJ@Japan-You ask-- "Who is going to bail out the gov't?"
They are to big to save. The IMF can't even save Thailand. Japan is spiralling into a black hole of illiquidity. Soon their sovereign debt will be lowered to junk bond status. A year from now the USD will probably be over 170 Yen. I have a real problem being optomistic about POG under those circumstances. Then there is the cessation of German resistance to IMF AU sales. Only the quick & nimble will make any gains
in the AU or any other mkts in the forseeable future. But the resident choirmaster will lead his faithfull flock & have them all singing the same old hyms out of tune.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:46 - ID#43349)
Those snakes are like that. Unpredictable. Sometimes they jump up, sometimes they jump down, and sometimes they just lay quietly.

If you miss a move, don't worry, another one will be along in short order.

It will be interesting watching the bond market now. It has been kinda hanging there anticipating the Fed would lower rates some more.

Now the Fed has.

Will they take their windfall and run before the falling dollar gets them, or will they wait for further cuts?

One thing about the Fed, they aren't afraid to DO something when thier back is against the wall. Whether it's bailing out LTCM or abandoning inflation control when it's apparant that the liquidity crunch is the bigger enemy. If this had been something that had to go thru congress...

Voyeur Professor
(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:51 - ID#231101)
As the song goes: "What a difference a day makes."

I do not wish to inflate the possible significance of todays Fed rate cut for gold, but want to point out that last September ( Thursday the 2nd ) the Wall Street Journal ran two op ed articles in its so-called "Beating Back the Bear" editorial section. The first entitled, "U.S. Needs to Promote Currency Stability," written by David Malpass, chief international economist at Bear Stearns, vigorously argued against the Feds refusal to address currency problems. Malpass argued, ". . . the U.S. has had no policy that would deal with the heart of the global currency problems." He urged that the abandonment of our strong dollar policy which "would allow gold and commodity prices to recover moderately from their current deflation-spooked levels and end the talk of world deflation." Though I have cited Malpass view in a previous post, I believe, despite my gloomy posts yesterday ( mea culpa, mea culpa ) , that gold may indeed respond to this second cut in the Fed rate. Doesnt vigorous reflation and the weakening of the dollar mean higher gold prices?

The companion article, ". . . And Cut Interest Rates to Ward off Deflation," written by Bruce Bartlett ( who incidentally reported that Allan Greenspan has all his assets in Treasury bills ) gave a ringing endorsement to a Fed policy of significant rate cuts to compensate for the enormous sums of U.S. currency, "almost all in the form of $100 bills " causing currency outflows. So Bartlett argues that interest rate cuts will supply the world with needed liquidity in the form of ample dollars, resolving "the conflict between monetarists and deflationists who ought not to be on opposite sides." Conclusion? Tight monetary, strong-dollar policy has been abandoned out of the deflationary fears of a frightened Greenspan. Good for gold? It ought to be, though I have already confessed I understand less and less about golds plight. It is significant, though, that the XAU spiked on the rate news.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 17:57 - ID#227290)
Gold and silver up nicely after-hours
According to Lind-Waldock, Dec gold up 2.3 at 301.50. Dec silver up 4.5 at 4.94.

Just wanted to let you all know that the real reason why gold went up today was because I sold my options at the open ( 7 of them, 300 calls ) . So don't believe it when Reuters tells you it was because of fund buying. Anyone else with a similiar story? I'm starting a support group. = (

Also, the bond is at 129.31. To check prices out for yourself, log on at They have it all for free.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:03 - ID#43349)
We were wondering if you would mind sharing some of your market moves with us before or during your time of making them. Perhaps we could work out some terms?

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:04 - ID#295111)
XAU Today
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $21.0000 1.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 1.37
ASL-Ashanti Gold-----CLOSED AT $08.9375 0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.13
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.8750 0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.56
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $06.0625 0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.02
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $11.0625 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.07
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $16.3125 1.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.11
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.0000 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.02
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $13.3125 1.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.73
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $23.5000 1.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.86
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $14.3125 0.8750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.71

XAU CLOSED AT 75.52 4.78

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:05 - ID#20767)
Selected Avid Chatter ...........

soup . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:05PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
the statists are just pushing back the problems, and compounding them

oleman . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:06PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
soup: They gonna do it, By God! They gonna do it. They gonna get their grubby mitts on that Social Security jackpot. Bobby R. is the WHEEL. I'm gonna be a hubcap and just roll along with him. Mind-boggling. All the IRA and 401k $$ already in, and now the Big Casino, Social Security TRUST Fund. Whadda haul!!!!

soup . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:07PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
when you bail out the weak, you crowd out the strong, and then,... well jsut take a look at russia.

oleman . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:14PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
soup: You need to think it thru carefully. They're sheer GENIUSES. They're gonna have all the money in the world. They gonna take all the IRA, 401k, and Social Security money from the boomers. They already control the Democrat Party. After the boomers lose all their dough, they'll naturally all become DEMOCRATS. Brilliant!!!!!!

soup . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:18PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
the business cycle is dead, the central planners will ensure never ending prosperity; Man , I got a think about getting the kids out of this country.

oleman . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:20PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Boy, that sw is fast! New update for the VooDoo ( tm ) manual just received by email. p.29 says: "The principal amount of long Spoos positions continues to enjoy FDIC insurance protection. Capital appreciation will henceforth be assured by the Federal Reserve Board." You just gotta learn to LOVE BIG BUBBA, soup.

oleman . . Thu, Oct 15, 3:22PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Seriously, fokes, the graveyards are full of the corpses of fokes who tried to fade Bobby Rubin. I been sayin it here for over 2 years.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:08 - ID#258142)
Przytula__A, 17:57
What do you expect POG in US$ to do when $ goes down?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:09 - ID#258142)
Przytula__A, 17:57
What do you expect POG in US$ to do when $ goes down?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:10 - ID#71231)
Words from Murphy
My view, developed in the April-June period, as I tried to understand why my microcap stock picks moved from a PE of 5 to 7 to a PE of 2 to 3 came essentially to this:

Wages rise and price competition squeeze US profits. Therefore, an overvalued stock market ( PE, interest rate and expected Growth relationship ) will fall as the realization that growth is dead leads the bears to eat Goldilocks.

A great trade deficit - increasing in unit volumes though the $ values were not rising yet - was threatening the $.

The enormous leverage in the market, particularly margin equity operations, futures, and most significantly an enormous yen and gold carry trade on the order of 25% of GDP, led me to believe further pressure will come on the $. Also, the hedging strategy of banks - short bond , long high yield securities, was incompatible with the possibility of rising risk and could bring some to the brink of insolvency, the same thing that brought the Yen down.

Stocks were also to come under pressure because of a large and late coming foreign investor contingent that would start to bail out as weakness develops in both $ and DOW.

I realized then, that gold will move up strongly and I started studying the gold market. A good explanation of the status quo ( gold not rising despite record demand ) is given by Murphy in this analysis:

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:10 - ID#270253)
What to do ??!!
Martin Zweig did research showing that when New York Up volume vs. Down volume is 90% or better ( ignoring unchanged volume ) , and it happens twice within 90 days....this is a major buy signal. We had the first on Sept 8th. Today we had 89.94% Up volume vs. Down volume. Is it close enough?? Maybe tomorrow's newspaper will have better numbers. This is too close for me.

If we do have two 90% up volume days, it is very bullish over the next 12 months. Average gain of 20% since 1960.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:11 - ID#254321)
Lexis-Nexis Databases, gold
All: Sorry -- Looks like you get the database names only unless you subscribe. Don't know how much Lexis-Nexis charges, but it probably isn't cheap.

Gold: Really odd that AG is dropping ST rates so rapidly, when it was not so long ago he was worried about inflation. Good for gold, provided that deflation doesn't come around and bite us in the rear end as JP would have us believe. I don't know what to believe, but it sure looks like commodity prices have bottomed. At the very least, I would guess that the price of gold is about to go up -- should be at least $320/oz, just based on that the US dollar did in the last month or so.

We just need to be on the lookout for a pending deflationary event -- might never happen if the dollar continues to drop on the international exchanges. If the dollar drops fast enough, deflationary forces will not be able to prevent the rise in the price of gold. Also, if the US markets and WJC continue to weaken, foreign investors will sell US assets if they can find a safer/more profitable resting place.

Of course, we do not want the US dollar to drop too rapidly, as the world's financial system might go up in smoke.

My vote -- whatever happens -- is for a controlled process. Not a total meltdown.

We gold bugs just need to be nimble -- should have bought more gold equities today -- I ve been adhering to a 'two day' rule, and did not hear about the Fed ST rate drop today until too late.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:13 - ID#269191)
To keep the rate cut in the perspective of history.
In the immediate wake of the 1929 crash, the Fed reduced the discount
rate 50 basis points. The market recovered 50% of the losses from
September 3, 1929 to October 29, 1929 ( Black Thursday ) . The rcovery
reached its conclusion in April 1930 and the market went straight down
from that point until June 1932 when the bear market reached its
bottom. All through the decline, the Fed repeatedly reduced the discount
rate and bought T-Bills through its open market desk. It obviously had
no effect on the deflation.

Milton Friedman has criticized Fed action in the depression as being too
stingy. The data show otherwise. The Fed pumped so much liquidity
into the banks that despite a 33% drop in the M-1 money supply caused
by the destruction of checkable deposits through bank failures, the
monetary base ( cash plus member banks reserve accounts ) grew 4% per year
from 1930 to 1932. Interest rates dropped to ridiculous levels: 1/2
% on T-Bills and 2.25% on Long T-Bonds.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:21 - ID#401460)
Abbey Joseph Cohen

Up Next on CNBC! Don't miss her BUY, BUY pitch. Is this orchestrated or what! Clinton and her boss, Rubin, probably drove her over to the studio.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:21 - ID#43349)
It will be interesting to see what effect it has THIS time, to start dropping rates BEFORE the crash and while the economy is still fairly robust.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:21 - ID#350179)
T minus 9 minutes and counting
Get ready to stress test the new Kitco...

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:23 - ID#227290)
Delphi, Gollum
Well Delphi, if I new how the dollar was going to react BEFORE I made a trade, it wouldn't be called speculating, would it? I sold on the spike up this morning expecting it to come down rather quickly ( and it didn't ) . They expire 11/13, so every day that passes, I would have been fighting time as it was. At least that was my reasoning.

Actually, I got $490 for the options and they closed at $450. They will be worth more at the open tomorrow though.

And for you Gollum, I'm thinking about shorting Orange Juice and going long crude oil. = )

Isn't life interesting?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:25 - ID#373403)
Dissention in the ranks at the Federal Reserve
The discount rate reduction was requested by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco, the Fed said.

The Cleveland, Boston, Richmond and Dallas Fed banks didn't join in the discount rate request. Cleveland Fed President Jerry Jordan and Richmond Fed President J. Alfred Broaddus both dissented several times during the past couple of years when the FOMC voted to leave rates unchanged.


Looks like Alan Greenspan has sold out to the big money interests. Finally we see his true colors. He is protecting the wealth effect as is shown by his actions to protect that which sustains the U.S. economy. He is determined to fight the business cycle to the last bloody battlefield. The DOW is his line in the sand.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:26 - ID#348309)
us dollar down 9220

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:29 - ID#350179)
Umm, how many times should we "click on this link"...

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:31 - ID#260119)
So what ... they crank it up a little by lowering rates .
Show me the foundation and I'll show you some sand.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:31 - ID#254321)
Interesting comments about 1929-1930's and now
DEJ: I think you are right on the money. The FED was blaimed for not doing enough near the end in 1929. But -- there is one thing very clear about deflationary times when they finally hit -- and that is that monetary expansion is of no value unless the people want to borrow and spend. All we need to do is look at Japan.

So -- Milton Friedman is probably only partially right about the Great Depression and the behavior of the FED. Somehow one has to convince the public that it is ok to spend and borrow if a deflationary crisis hits. Easy to say and think about -- but much harder to do in practice.

I guess a good analogy I read somewhere about the FED applies. It is easy for the FED to put on the brakes and slow an economy -- but it is much harder to stimulate one heading for a recession. The latter is like pushing on a string. And --- a possible depression is the grandaddy of a recession when it hits. So -- you could argue that anyone in charge of the FED could not have prevented the Great Depression once a certain ( unknown ) critical point was reached.

It might be interesting to compare the mood of the average consumer in the late 20's and 30's with the current situation, although time is probably accelerated due to the information revolution. I'll bet that the average consumer thought times were pretty good right up to that famous day in October.

And -- we may still be awaiting a market blowoff rally. Wonder how long this current short term rally will last with this much financial stimulus? The market response will give us a pretty good idea of how healthy things really are.

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:32 - ID#260119)
Awesome Bart!
Thankyou and congrats!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:32 - ID#403234)
test link
appears to be like greased lightning

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:33 - ID#350179)
Test site
Seems pretty fast to me.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:34 - ID#270253)
My test was very fast. Thanks for the effort.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:34 - ID#410194)
Very quick Bart..... way to go.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:34 - ID#229207)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:34 - ID#20748)
Cash Gold 299.50

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:35 - ID#229207)
Nice going, Bart
This puppy is COOKIN'!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:35 - ID#113316)
Speedy Kitco
Bart, Works well. What's the new system consist of?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:37 - ID#246432)
Man-O-Man...was that test fast

I must be on Kito all by myself...



(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:37 - ID#401460)
BART the Fastest Gun in The West

Works Great, what a difference.



ps: is this coordinated with the rate cut and IMF and all of the other stuff?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:37 - ID#288186)
Very good, Bart.... Fast response!
: )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:38 - ID#317193)
Bart...forget that e-mail;-)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:41 - ID#341227)
@DELPHI...oh, yes, meester Delphi, sir...
...I would sure hate to upset you by any of my indiscreet actions, Mr. Delphi, sir.

Now, if you look at any of my preceding posts today, there's all kinds of new, different ideas to engross a smart fella like you.

Just go and take and a look and you enjoy now, Meester Delphi, sir.

I don't mean to be causing you no grief now.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:41 - ID#43460)
looking good!
So far so good! O.K. guys,upload some megacharts! ( 8-^ ) )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:42 - ID#350179)
Behemoth mining company unveils major restructuring plan

As a main part of the revamp, Anglo American will pay $2.8 billion in cash and stock for the remaining part of Minorco SA, the company's natural-resources arm based in Luxembourg, which it doesn't already own.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:43 - ID#341227)
@BART...I did the test...
...but I don't know if I passed.

Send me my grade later.



(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:43 - ID#258273)
Very fast, very very fast..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:45 - ID#286249)
Weltanschauung--Today's Fed action v previous comments by Tietmeyer, Duisenberg...
the gauntlet flung?

If your map shows the Spaghetti Grove abutting the Money Tree Forest
And that seems logical to you
Not to worry

On the other hand, if you think there is
short panic from those incapable of long truths

truths revealed in study of the currency reciprocals
then, buy bread, hyacinths, and prepare to
duck and cover

today was a proclamation
of capitulation

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:45 - ID#43349)
A little fairy tale
Once upon a time some Japanese banks got in trouble, although there were denials:

So they made a plan, but no one was sure exactly how it would work:

In any case they would need funding, but credit was tight:

Japan had plenty of US treasuries, but would lose greatly in trying to cash them in unless something could be done to support them for at least a while:

And everyone lived happily ever after....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:46 - ID#194311)
Rates...whassup with rates?!?
Bart's update rates have been slashed....

or was that Big Al's money store?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:47 - ID#26395)
Let's try that again...
Thanks to everyone who participated in our test. But there wasn't enough traffic to really load the system. I'd like to ask everyone to try it again at 7:00, only this time start at a half minute before 7:00 and press your reload or refresh button each time the page finishes loading until a few seconds after 7:01. The thing to click on is

If that doesn't bring it down I think we'll be OK.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:52 - ID#194311)
Dollar's tanking again...more yen carry unwind?
Thursday October 15, 6:29 pm Eastern Time

Stocks, bonds surge, dollar falls after Fed easing

By Richard Melville

NEW YORK, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks roared higher and bonds surged on Thursday
after a surprise interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, its second in just over two

The dollar, which tends to weaken in response to falling interest rates, tumbled after news of
the cut, but stabilized later as surging stocks lent some support to the greenback.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:55 - ID#194311)
Something's up....I can smell it.
Big news on the wires....released probably after the close friday....involves bringing gold to the fore front of the financial crisis.....a major short to fail...even default on gold loan perhaps....sit tight rocket men.

Who need's rocket science when ya GOT GOLD?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:56 - ID#43349)
I kinda liked this part:

``The unusual move by the Federal Reserve had a slight air of menace about it as it suggested liquidity problems may be greater than expected, which may prompt more safe-haven buying of gold,'' said Dinsa Mehta, managing director for global commodities at Chase Manhattan Bank in New York.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:58 - ID#350179)
Start now

(Thu Oct 15 1998 18:58 - ID#316193)
Goooo Gooold!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:00 - ID#286249)
Bart, there are some few
In whom
One can rightly believe
Thank you very much. This is nirvana!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:00 - ID#290456)

Sorry - I had to leave the office for the day and missed your question. There were 3 separate posts the same day about Prechter's EWT issue, one dealing with stock market, another on the bond market, and a third on gold and silver.

Of course, he forecasts a crash. What else? He's been pushing that idea for at least 3 years.

silver plate
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:02 - ID#234253)
Fast site
Bart you did it , indeed you did. All seems to be working sooo fast

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:02 - ID#246432)
Test Results....I did

30 response...every time..

go gold

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:05 - ID#190411)
I am embarrased that my post led the test
It surely works now!
I still think we should send twenty bucks or whatever to help defray the costs, I will.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:06 - ID#431366)
" I foresee a hybrid -- a compromise between paper ( cyber-bits ) and gold -- that provides a valuable standard constraining governments from creating vast quantities of currency out of thin air."

Can 100% Gold backed money work? How about in the following manner?
1 ) All cash is Gold coins ( except maybe for small change being Silver ) .
2 ) All cyberaccounts are 100% Gold backed, i.e., Gold on deposit somewhere for every unit of "currency" on the account.

A cyberaccount shows a figure which is backed by the same amount of Gold in the vault. Who owns what Gold could be entirely in electronic form. A bank's vault full of Gold could be owned by many different entities but rarely is it physically delivered unless what is owned by depositors in that particular location gets way out of balance with what is physically there. But the entirety of M1 would have to have 100% of its value physically deposited in Gold somewhere or many somewheres.

Of course this means that price of Gold would have to be orders of magnitude higher than it is and a lot more would have to be mined or strained from the oceans. Goldbugs win both in physical and in mining stocks.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:07 - ID#194311)
gollum...interesting isn't it
for once gold was mentioned in a major article as a good indicator on how to judge the fed's action.....seems the tide is turning even the brain dead media are picking up on the diamonds in the rough.

If only it could always be like that....all government moves to be judged by the price action of gold ( real money ) ...rather than CONfidence games of stocks, bonds..etc.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:07 - ID#432136)
Fed Cut

Who on here really believes that a Fed cut will keep this bull market going? Not long ago Greenspan was saying stocks were overpriced, etc and so forth. Now with the stocks still high he is attempting to push them higher!

We are on a deflationary track! Ultimately gold/silver will be the real winners in this game.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:11 - ID#240288)
Mike Sheller with the Hot Hand!

Not bad. Not bad at all. Big G&P!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:11 - ID#348129)
@Bart - Test
Pretty fast, it stumbled a couple of times on reloads, but only for a second or two, otherwise almost instant.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:11 - ID#401460)

October 15, 1998
6:53PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close


(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:12 - ID#412286)
Great Comment re spending and borrowing. People will do so when they THINK they will be richer because of asset appreciation ( 90s bull ) or because their incomes are rising AND jobs are either plentifula and or secure with benefits ( not today nor in the twenties ) hence the feds attampt to help PPT in asset reflation. Notice the move occurred after bonds currencies and commodities closed// clear attempt at a fix..They will try tp quel any adverse reactions in commodities overnite with the help of the other boys.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:13 - ID#194311)
Good dose of nervousness about.....(simmering panic...)
Thursday October 15, 6:53 pm Eastern Time

U.S. fund managers grow more nervous, up

NEW YORK, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - U.S. debt fund managers' market outlook grew grimmer,
as they shifted holdings into shorter-duration issues and upped their cash levels, Stone &
McCarthy's ( SMR ) Money Manager survey showed Wednesday.

In the week ended October 13, market sentiment continued to deteriorate, the report said.

Also CB chairs teeth chattering too....but are they saying anything....perhaps it's just like nervous monkeys...there lips move but the salad of their words is incomprehensible.

Thursday October 15, 6:57 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

FX IN EUROPE - Central bankers set the direction

LONDON, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. dollar and British pound both ended European
trading lower on Thursday after comments from Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer and
Bank of England Governor Eddie George.

The dollar softened against the mark and yen after Tietmeyer said easing monetary policy to
such an extent inconsistent with domestic stability ``is beneficial to nobody.''

That sharply contrasted with comments by three Bundesbank council members on Wednesday suggesting German rates could fall.

``That was a pretty strong rebuke there,'' said Francis Breedon, senior foreign exchange strategist at Lehman Brothers.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:13 - ID#348257)
thank you, my man...thank you very much.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:13 - ID#43349)
Maybe we should talk about 100 yen to the dollar again:

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:14 - ID#43349)
I don't thin at this point it id the equity markets that concerns the Fed....

Gold Dancer
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:14 - ID#377196)
On and of the site all day and no problems. WOW!!! This is great.
Thank you very much for this site.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:15 - ID#43460)
RJ (re INVESTMENT casting)
Here is another link I forgot to send you last night. It is the URL of another jewelers supply house.

Although I might hasten to add our benefactor, Bart, carries a good line of reasonably priced casting grains, metal and products.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:19 - ID#286249)
Let us contemplate the word "fix"~ Aurator,r u there 4 us?
LBMA Fix ( interesting term, that]
AM Fixing ( 15 Oct 1998 ) 173.678||296.000
PM Fixing ( 15 Oct 1998 ) 175.043||298.150

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:23 - ID#258142)
@F, 18:41
Dear Yale ( hope I spell it right ) graduate - thank you for your wisdom. Perhaps you can share with us your insight regarding coming POG moves: where it gonna be tomorrow? Next Friday close? January the 1st? Or you dont care and buy more?
Yours faithfully
Delphi PhD

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:25 - ID#190411)
Pony up some cash, gents.
I wrote a few minutes ago about the superb performance that Bart restored to this "free" site.
As most of you must know, Bart's real business site never was all that slow. It was just K1, and K2.
So, you realize that the money that he spent to bring this site to the new performance level doesn't directly benefit Kitco Minerals and Metals.
I had made inquiries to Kitco about running a banner ad to solicit money to debug the system. Bart said that the site was to change ISP soon, and should get better.
He did just that.
I encourage all posters and lurkers to send some money to Kitco to help maintain this site.

The address is:
Kitco Minerals and Metals
620 Cathcart #900
Montreal, Canada H3B-1M1

Bart had nothing whatsoever to do with this solicitation.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:28 - ID#43349)
How did 87 get in there?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:30 - ID#203137)
spot gold $US299.5. dec gold 301.60. Just posting as Kitco quote not correct. perhaps because of new changes.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:32 - ID#194311)
hedge funds=banks runner boys...and then the lawsuits began...
Thursday October 15, 6:50 pm Eastern Time

BankAmerica named in shareholder suit - attorneys

NEW YORK, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - A federal shareholder lawsuit was filed Thursday against
BankAmerica Corp. ( NYSE:BAC - news ) alleging the company issued misleading statements
regarding its exposure to hedge fund losses, attorneys for the plaintiffs said.

A BankAmerica spokesperson declined comment.

The complaint charges BankAmerica and its chairman, Hugh McColl Jr., with ``knowingly or recklessly'' issuing false and misleading
statements on October 1 regarding BankAmerica's exposure to hedge fund losses.

``When BankAmerica disclosed the extent of its losses stemming from a hedge fund investment on October 14, 1998, the price of
BankAmerica common stock fell by approximately 11 percent, inflicting enormous damage on investors,'' a statement by the attorneys

The lawsuit was filed in U.S. District Court in the Eastern District of New York by the law firm Abbey, Gardy & Squitieri on behalf of
shareholders from Oct. 1 through Oct. 13.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:35 - ID#320136)
Excellent response time! Extremely grateful to
you for your dedication to this wonderful site!
Thank you so much.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:37 - ID#240370)
Hurrah for BART !!!
Greaaaaaaaaaaaaat. Never saw such a fast Kitco.
Good idea to have deleted the 20th anniversary
flashing banner: it was surely slowing down the site.

Everything is now OK, gold up and a superb head
and shoulders pattern in place on the DJ monthly
barchart. IMHO, we should revisit 6500 before visiting
10000, despite Abbie's prophecies. Let it be...

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:37 - ID#348257)
re my call for 8400 DOW - glad to be of service, man, glad to be of service.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:39 - ID#423313)
Gold in the news
National Public Radio actually included the closing POG today along with the usual Dow, FTSE, etc. This is the first time I've heard them mention it.


PS. You're site's even fast now on my OLD 486SX.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:42 - ID#190411)
Euphoria ---Wall to wall
DJI +4.15%
SP500 +4.17%
TSE +4.79%

Who stuck the Canadians with the electric cattle prod? Sympathy pains?

XAU +6.76%

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:42 - ID#259282)
Lets crank down rates and prop up the DJones.
Look Ma no hands. We can manipulate the market. Corporate welfare.10 bucks say the big boys pull the plug on this rally.What date was the crash in 87? Wanted to know because it was around the 10th largest rally in history according to Gollums post on big rallies.Everybody jump into the market we are all safe now!!!! Oh yeah Oh yeah Oh yeah! Greenspan wants the big boys to come out with acceptable losses. He just facilitated that.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:48 - ID#423313)
Things that make you go hmmm....
Thanks again for the link, Gollum ( why have you quit flying lately? ) .

Does it seem kind of interesting that 4 of the 10 biggest point rallies have occurred in the past two months and the market is STILL down 10%?

How many more times will the PPT have to prop up the price before the hedge positions are completely unwound and the market is allowed to collapse on the individual investor?

Bart Kitner (Kitco)
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:54 - ID#26395)
What was it?
For anyone interested, what you were connecting to was an NT server running IIS on a 200Mhz Pentium . The good part was the fiber optic connectioin which you had to share only amongst yourselves. It looks like we're going to be OK with this setup. Now if we can only get the charts updating ......

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:54 - ID#269128)
Anybody seen the article for this?
heard that some mutual funds are being extended "special loans" to meet a wave of selling many more loans must there be?

Is the world solvent anymore?...was it ever?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:55 - ID#267344)
Thou shalt not use my name in vain...

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:57 - ID#295111)
BART, YOU'RE THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
just want to say thanks!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:58 - ID#252391)
Gold at $299.50
After hours pop has taken gold right up to the $300 barrier. Silver moved up close to $5.00 before be turned back. Bond yields continue to drop with Dec well over 130. Dollar at about its low for the day. Dollar index when it next trades will be about 91 - new low for the move. Yet gold is up a buck......

Granted Asia has hardly awoken and Euorope is asleep and Amercian is closed so maybe the buying enthusiasm hasn't had time to materialize, or maybe the CB/Hedge Fund Cabal is ready at the wall.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 19:59 - ID#290456)
Big Bank Failure in the offing?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:01 - ID#269128)
good grief...go gold.
is gold finally in a free market....perhaps the SEC is finally doing the math.....

$4billion leveraged into $1.25 trill controlling assets

doesn't take much imagination to figure out what happened to gold over the last 5-6 years....where's the referee?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:07 - ID#401460)



(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:10 - ID#287279)

"...To compound matters, there was a story in the Washington Post ( the official Fed leak source ) that quoted an unidentified Fed official as saying that unless something catastrophic happened between now and the next FOMC meeting, they wouldn't change rates. Something major is brewing in the bad news department.
I have said in the past that Greenspan is going to go down as one of the most irresponsible Fed chairmen of all time, and I stand by those words. Some would say that of course, we need to ease, but the reason we are in this predicament is because we created too much money and a bubble. Creating more liquidity does not solve that. Once you have 40 shots of tequila, the best way to drive home is not to have another 40 so you don't feel bad.
Take the money and run... Anybody who doesn't have to be in the market should take advantage of whatever rally ensues and get the hell out. Obviously there are tremendously large problems in the world if the Fed panicked like this. You are going to see the dollar turn to confetti over time. All these problems are just going to pile up. Use this rally as a gift and take your money and run.
I have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a dramatic turnaround in stocks happen rather quickly once it starts. We are in uncharted waters. I expect the dollar to get crushed and gold to shoot higher. The Fed has no respect for markets, as it sees fit to manipulate them all.
A currency crisis lies ahead. When your currency goes bad you are sunk: Just ask Asia, Russia and Mexico. Whatever manipulation the Fed attempts will be short-lived. Stocks aren't pieces of paper they are shares of businesses. Should they be worth more because big trouble is coming? Currencies are just paper and without sound policies they are worthless. Two thousand years of history show us one certainty: All paper currencies go to zero.
Greenspan has accelerated the process while accentuating and abetting reckless and destructive speculation. Remember that he is supposed to know what the banks are doing. Once again he was asleep while they engineered themselves into a position to implode ( see yesterday's Rap and link ) . Now that that giant mistake ( and really this is all an extension of bailing out Mexico in 1994 ) has erupted, he is pursuing the same policies that got us into this jam in the first place.
The stupidity and arrogance is nauseating. Our children all will pay for his incompetence. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. Somebody get Volcker back before it is too late."

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:10 - ID#316193)
Rational Comments From Bill Fleckenstein Re. Today's Action by the Feds
"Take the money and run...Anybody who doesn't have to be in
the market should take advantage of whatever rally ensues and
get the hell out."

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:15 - ID#224363)
Bart Kitner...I've figured it out !!
You've increased the performance by a factor of 10x because you are expecting huge demand as the POG climbs up to $450 right ??

On a more serious note, I was talking with a friend last weekend and bemoaing the fact the gold truly is a political metal. I don't think I really appreciated that fact quite so much until recently. The gold that is held by the central banks gives them incredible power to assist in the manipulation of the market.

Quite frankly, if 10% of what is said about the hedge funds using gold to fund their other activities is true, I'll be quite pissed that goverment money ( indirectly through the central banks ) was used to bail them out.

I know Bill Murphy and James Turk and many others are anticipating a huge bull market in gold but the goverment manipulation and the games that are being played scare the hell out of me.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:16 - ID#344326)
WOW!!!!! Read this!!! Commentary from Bill Murphy at "le metropole cafe"
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"
October 15, 1998 - Spot Gold $297.10 up $1.40 - Spot Silver $4.89 up 6 cents

Technicals -

The ticking of the gold short time bomb is ticking louder and louder. Since our last Midas, the open interest dropped by about 9,000 contracts and the gold price went up as this was occurring. This is bullish because some specs are liquidating and the price of gold is going up, not down which is usually what happens during a flush out of spec longs. Therefore, some of the short term speculative froth is being removed from the gold pits, thereby firming up the technical condition of this market. Gold continues to build a hearty technical base which can support a very, very move big move to the upside. Our objective is still $335 in the short term and $400 per ounce within one year.

Silver is rebounding nicely from its recent drubbing. A close above $5 will turn the technicals bullish again and the move up from here may be swift as the recent downturn is looking more and more like a killer move down for silver bulls. Moves like this, once reversed, are very positive. Silver could move up swiftly from here. We remain big picture bullish and still believe $10 to $12 silver ( at least ) is in the cards.

Fundamentals -


The bulletin that we have to share with you is not to tell you about the Federal Reserve cutting the its fed fund and discount rates by a quarter point. We are sure you know about that by now. It does demonstrate however, how precarious the financial situation is in the world. Alan Greenspan does not normally react like this. As we have alluded to in the past, the hedge fund problem positions are enormous and he knows that further blows ups could jeopardize the entire world financial system. The Chairman of Merrill Lynch said he thought it would take two years for Long Term Capital Management to successfully solve its problems. Two years!. Not two weeks or two months. And that is just one hedge fund.

Mr. Greenspan has cut our interest rates because these are desperate times and he is taking desperate measures. Of course, all this is very bullish for gold. The interest rate cuts further reduces the contango ( reducing forward selling incentives by producers ) and makes gold a more attractive investment vehicle versus interest yielding investments. But the real story here is the fear about what could happen to financial markets around the world and that fear is going around at the highest levels. When word of this gets out, and that type of real fear reaches the likes of you and me ( the public ) the desire to own gold will skyrocket from all sectors.

Here is what we found out regarding the gold part of the fear. In essence, all that we have been telling you since opened is on the money. When Long Term Capital blew up, an immediate review of investments and lending practices of all financial institutions was undertaken by our government and senior management officials of all kinds. They found out that many of these institutions have borrowed massive amounts of gold as a cheap borrowing source of capital and they are exposed financially because they have lent out massive amounts of gold. This is in addition to the thousands of tonnes that they have lent gold producers to sell forward and also lent our to jewelry fabricators, etc. Our government knows now that there is no way this amount of gold can be bought back in a short period of time without the price of gold going ballistic. It could easily go to $375 to $400 overnite in this type of situation ( if a buying panic starts and the gold loans are called in ) .

Our government is trying to buy some time here to solve other aspects of the financial crises before they deal with gold. We received confirmation again that they are using arm twisting and cajoling of the strongest kind to keep the price down. We were told that the bears gave it all they had last week and tried to really break the market. It did not work.

And this is what our bulletin is about. It did not work and will not work because the Japanese and Chinese are buying gold and have been buying for 3 months now. Our government is so scared about what could happen, they have asked the Chinese and Japanese not to push the price of gold up. We do not know what was agree to, but we heard they said absolutely nothing when queried whether they would continue to buy gold.

There is a reason they are buying gold. It is our understanding that the China, Japanese, Tawain, and Singapore are in the process of structuring an IMF type of banking institution that will have the yen as the reserve currency and this new institution will also include gold as part of its holdings. The yen will compete against the ecu and the dollar as a reserve currency. This is very bullish news for the gold market and not so hot news for the almighty dollar.

There is something else. Word is spreading in the bullion banking community that many of the other merchant banks have written massive amounts of calls. As long as the price of gold stays down, they earn nice money with this call writing business, but if the price of gold explodes, they will too will have to buy gold to honor their commitments. That is why there is such a battle going when gold rises above $300 and stretches out to $305. It is only a matter of time that Murphy's Law finds it way into this situation and the gold shorts are blown up. Good old gold will be that once again. Good old reliable gold. And those that disdained its relevence in modern day society and mocked those of us that know better, will rue the day they felt that way.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:17 - ID#43349)
Flying is for nice weather, or occasionaly with the right equipment for hurricane spotters. But NOT fore these kind of markets.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:21 - ID#295111)
AG perhaps will be seen as the biggest goat cause he played into the hands of the CLINTON administration who wanted short term prosperity at the risk of long term disaster. Doing so would raise BC's popularity and democrats in upcomming elections.

BC SHOULD BE HUNG BY THE BALLS! I blame it on BC more than anybody else.

And we all remember that meeting between Rubin, AG and BC. They knew the trouble they got themselves into. Now they're caught between a rock and a hard place.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:31 - ID#269191)
JT: The reaction to the crash.
I would say the common man in 1929-30 thought things would recover and
go back to "normal". The leading economists ( Irving Fisher )
thought there would be a mild recession and a return to prosperity.
The politicians all thought this too. Even speculators who had gotten
the crash right ( Jesse Livermore ) thought there would be a quick
recovery. The only group of economists to get the depth of the
depression right were the Austrians ( von Mises ) . Von Mises as early
as 1926 had predicted a depression. Roger Babson made his first
crash prediction in 1926 and like us gold bugs of today was held-up
to public ridicule. When he made another crash prediction just before
Black Thursday it got only a few lines in the Wall Street Journal.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:31 - ID#295111)
@ALL + @crazytimes & Murphy's Law
Fantastic post !!!!!!!!!


(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:31 - ID#386245)
So what did you guys expect...
...before the Nov. 3rd? elections?? Buying votes is a time-honoured practice.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:33 - ID#194311)
this is it ...fear and panic in the highest spheres
oh how the mighty will be humbled.

Strike when you see the whites of their eyes....

Panic almost has the same stench as the decay of
a corrupted and raped monetary system.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:35 - ID#386245)
Speaking of buying votes.
When I was in Papua New Guinea, one politician bought a carton of beer for EVERY adult in his constituency!!! ( with pilfered taxpayers funds no doubt ) . You Yanks do it in a slightly more sophisticated manner. Very slightly.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:35 - ID#200235)
Thanks for posting Murphy's article. I believe he is l00% correct.

ANOTHER hinted about unified asian currency to combat the EURO about a year ago.

Your handle says it all. Wish I had thought of it first.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:38 - ID#156161)
I don't think the Fed is trying to boost the stock markets directly

with today's rate increase, but encourage the creation of more debt

of any kind; consumer,mortgage, or margin.

Missed tests due to kids bedtime, but Keetco on glass is reassuring.

Not old enough or fat enough for golf.;- ) Go Gold!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:40 - ID#344326)
@ I hope it's true...
The gold bear is dead, dead, dead if the news is true about Japan and China buying gold for some time in anticipation of forming an "Asian" currency with gold as holdings. Tie this news together with the news Gollum posted about the London Metals Exchange stopping manipulation and we are off to the races!!! YAHOO! and I DON'T mean some overblown internet stock. GO GOLF!!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:41 - ID#210114)
Crazytimes 20:16
Nice article. No offence but I've heard it all before. The big bull, $US 400 in a few months etc. etc.

Sorry, but I think you're wrong.

Having said that, there will be no-one happier than I if you are right.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:42 - ID#290456)
LME to stop hedge funds from manipulating gold by short selling
according to the Financial Times, courtesy of USAGOLD

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:45 - ID#156161)
George Washington won some early political battles in a similar

manner, but that was some years back. Boston's Mayor Curley used

the technique as well.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:47 - ID#224363)
@Crazytimes 20:40
Don't count your bull market in gold just yet. Although all the conditions are nicely setup for a bull market there are still a number of 'to be resolved' items.

1. Just how far will the gold holding goverments go ( especially the US and UK ) to support their fragile financial system. Would they allow a $150 increase due to short covering, etc. or would they be more likely to lend their own gold back into the market.

2. Will the big producers stop forward selling ? or will they also be pressured by political considerations.

3. How much of a role will discretionary purchases ( coins, bullion ) for safe haven purposes play in maintaining the demand.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:47 - ID#254239)
can you spell put P U T!!!!!!!!!!!!!! S & P put put
put ......put

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:49 - ID#331214)
Gold Stock Analyst newsletter
Just followed a link supplied By Fleckenstein on
He is very bullish on Gold tonight. Is saying just what I have been reading on Kico for a year. He points to a gold newsletter that I have not heard of before. by John Doody
Can anyone volunteer an opinion on this publication?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:50 - ID#50148)
Mike Sheller
Are you going to make eat my words now??? :- )

The only piece of advice that I've seen that makes any sense at all is; If you don't have to be in the markets, then don't be! The Fed did NOT cut interest rates because all is going WELL. If the smart/big money demanded a rate cut as part of the LTCM deal, then this is the mother of all sucker rallies........ If the above scenario is correct, then these folks were already positioned. Those who buy in to this are then 'bailing' out the smart/big money out.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:55 - ID#411112)
crazytimes....who is that guy Murphy....may want to use it I need to give credit


(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:56 - ID#255151)
nick @ 24Cansbeera

A case of beer for pulling a lever, you say. That's good enough for me! 24 12ounce beers to a case here in the States. Same for OZ? Costs about $15-$20 a case here.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:58 - ID#50148)
Mike Sheller
FWIW, I almost shorted MSFT today. For some unkown reason, I didn't feel good about the stock moving up. So I did what I normally do when indecision strikes... I shut the P.C. off and went away. That was around 3:00 P.M. Eastern and @102 7/8. The rest, as they say, is history? Tomorrow is options expiration day and to me, not worth the effort to play in the rip tides. Late next week may be a different story though. We shall see.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:58 - ID#411112)
Spock....Murphys Law say it often enough it will happen :-)


(Thu Oct 15 1998 20:59 - ID#344326)
@ robnoel...
Go to this site. Bill Murphy is a close associate of Frank Veneroso. The following link is to his site "Le Metropole Cafe".....

Voyeur Professor
(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:00 - ID#231112)
A "New Bretton Woods"

This morning's Wall Street Journal has a most pleasing article by Judy Shelton, a professor of international finance. She has this to say:

The best way to determine curency credibility and global monetary reform "is to adopt a global gold standard. The Bretton Woods system was a gold exchange standard not a gold standard. Only the U.S. was required to convert its currency into gold at a fixed rate, and only foreign central banks were allowed the privilege of redemption. If you corrected for those two flaws--by requiring all countries to maintain convertibility and by granting every individual the right to redeem--you would be back to the classic international gold standard. A modern version would provide the world with a common currency anchored by gold and redeem the promise of global capitalism. It was not nostalgia that prompted Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to mention in testimony before congress last month that the systemic risks posed when currency mismatches lead to insolvency do not occur under a gold standard."

Who says gold is dead? Not me.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:00 - ID#288436)
Look at the far left column and scan down to "newsletters" for more information. GOLDSHEET is a great research tool for all things gold.

Good Prospecting!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:01 - ID#288436)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:02 - ID#344326)
@ robnoel...
Go to this site. Bill Murphy is a close associate of Frank Veneroso. The following link is to his site "Le Metropole Cafe".....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:05 - ID#255151)
farmer-- John Doody

Never heard of him. We ought to invite him to post at Kitco. I am sure everyone here will be mature enough not to greet him with, "Howdy, Doody!"

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:09 - ID#411112)
crazytimes.....thanks buddy


Chicken man
(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:10 - ID#341297)
Gollum @ A crazy man sitting on the roost sharing his thoughts
Sounds to wild to even to discuss....but here goes....the main basis for my reasoning goes back to ravenfire's URL ( I apolligize.if the credit goes to the wrong person ) ...but anyway...the one about Armstrong's theory that cash will be king...I know what some of you think of PEI and their super computer..BUT..please read the article first..put your personal
fellings aside and listen to what he is saying...IMHO pretty serious stuff..It ain't over till the fat lady sings...and I think she will be singing"Cash is King"...there are to many of these d@mn derivatives floating out there...nice piece this morning about Bank america... you wonder how many of those busted hedge funds are laying in the grass waiting to be discovered...been averaging about one a day.....I wonder how many it busted funds it is going to take before America believes there just could be a slight problem out there...folks that IS the bubble!...Tomorrow morning I'm going to buy Oct puts ...going to be down right cheap about it too! Probibaly sell more XAU ...reason is, if gold drops the only way to protect your position late in the day ( gold closes earlier than Wall Street ) is to sell the the markets open tomorrow... got a feeling you can watch the hedge funds unwind...i.e. gold-up...grains--up...bonds--up ( got a good start! ) ...think I buy puts on 20 million of those "good as gold" can bet pretty wild when you can use winnings...hey Gollum guess what... those bond boys gave me 10 more... checked out the open interest on the bonds...the put boys got the call boys running....going to short gold,silver,soybeans... go long the yen for ride to 103...hope I have enough balls to stick out the run and not get scared and jump off to soon

The Hatt...I show you my hand and let you keep score..OK?

If I'm wrong -- I'm be it..easy come..easy go

Sorry about the lenght of my babbling...might be something you can use for your own brainstorming...that's how I'm learning...Thanks everbody..couldn't done it without you!!!!!

Just a thought...Chicken man..

Sorry about being so dang long winded..

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:10 - ID#401460)
The Image of the Independent FED has to be protected at all cost.

Just for the record, though I kid about the coincidence of the Fed's action with other events, I /We must remember that the Fed has always and I mean always tried to remain separate and independent of all other events, especially those which are political; therefore, it should be obvious to everyone, especially Kitco gold followers, that for the Fed to move at this time has to be for only one reason, they are scarred sh*tless over unfolding events.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:11 - ID#386245)
G'day Auric
They can't afford ( vote wise ) to have a crash before the elections. All you traders out there should know that and should be long until the votes are in. So what's wrong with using taxpayers funds to hold up the markets ( therefore buying votes ) ?? You elected them. You deserve them!!

24 x 375 ml bottles @ 4.9% alcohol. It takes an Aussie a week of two and many trips to the lou ( John ) to adjust to the camel's piss you guys drink.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:23 - ID#251168)
someone please post URL for Nick's website TIA

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:23 - ID#45173)
So far, things are looking good for the Gollum inflation theory
The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition -- October 15, 1998
Gold Futures Climb
On Interest-Rate Cut


Gold futures rose Thursday after a surprise interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve
touched off short-cover buying in the cash markets.

At New York's Commodities Exchange, December gold rose $1.40 to $299.20 an ounce,
while in London the yellow metal climbed 70 cents to $296.00.

In the hour after the rate cut, cash gold rose $1.35 per ounce. Silver, platinum, and palladium
were unchanged.

Gold moved higher after the rate cut, "in anticipation of a weaker dollar" on Friday, said
Westfalia Investments analyst Peter Cardillo.

Analysts said the knee-jerk reaction to the cuts probably sparked some short covering in the
cash markets. Lower U.S. interest rates tend to weaken the dollar and cause inflation-hedge
buying of gold, analysts say.

Meanwhile, silver futures inched up 6.5 cents to $4.9 an ounce.
But is gold rising in value or is the dollar losing buying power?

The answer is, "yes."

Gianni Dioro
(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:24 - ID#384350)
Bill Buckler - Inflation
Date: Thu Oct 15 1998 17:17
Bill Buckler ( Warning: Sharp inflation curve ahead? )
It looks like the Dollar is going right down the crapper.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:25 - ID#348127)

Sure did like seeing the heavy volume out there today.
GRERF avg. vol. 50k --today 500k NEM 2 million
Looks bright for a little rally

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:30 - ID#45173)
Chicken man
You are too cool, Chicken Man! Rising that dollar down to Y103. Yeeehah!

Good luck.


(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:31 - ID#287114)
Gianni Dioro
Is the dollar going down the crapper........Or just getting back to where it should be.
I see gold is up a few cents tonight.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:31 - ID#331214)
@sig re:Goldsheet URL
Thanks, now I'll spend the night expanding my reading horizons and won't be awake to buy back into PM's if POG does really fly tommorrow.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:34 - ID#26467)
FWIW Those banks are going to be flooded with cash until
the elections are over.The bank index shot up 40 points
The markets will pause tomorrow and make another run to 560
OEX next two weeks.The politicos don't want to loose their seats.
Gold is going to be surpressed until
the end of the month.Stated before, 335 in the second week
of November.Platinum will lead the way.
This is a classic bearmarket rally.Highly profitable.
Use it to buy more gold.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:35 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
By the way, my daughter works for a mortgage company. In the last two days
five ( 5 ) major mortgage companies in America went bankrupt. I believe one
is called "First Choice" or "First Plus"...that's the one the Dan Marino
advertises on TV.

She said that in the next few months, none of the "125%" lenders will be
in business. Spooky.

Swing chart:

A most definative breakout. ( :- ) ) )

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:38 - ID#203137)

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:39 - ID#255151)
Metals Up Bonds Up Currencies Up

Gold up a buck.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:41 - ID#153110)
@Gianni @When Cash Is King
Your list. while pertinent, indicates scant talent for official deception .
When Cash Is King. then what ? Cause Credit Paper Cash is Trash, paying no usury.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:42 - ID#432157)
The "Little Fellas are BUYING the Yellow Stuff" at last

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:44 - ID#45173)
MOF says doesn't think Europe will follow Fed cut
Asked about a possible coordinated credit easing by European nations following the Fed move, Miyazawa said: ``I'm certain there won't be such a thing.''
Why is he so certain? Does the cause for the surprise drop only pertain to the USA? Why might that be?

Thursday October 15, 9:26 pm Eastern Time

TOKYO, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - Japan's Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa
said on Friday that he did not think European central banks would cut
interest rates in a coordinated action after the U.S. Federal Reserve's
surprise rate cut overnight.

He also said Japan was likely to stick to its current monetary policy.

Miyazawa said European central bankers, particularly Bundesbank Governor Hans Tietmeyer, were hesitant to cause
``ripples'' ahead of the launch of the euro on January 1.

Asked about a possible coordinated credit easing by European nations following the Fed move, Miyazawa said: ``I'm certain there won't be such a thing.''

Miyazawa said the Fed's move on Thursday was unexpected, although many people had expected an additional credit
easing, not many had thought it would come so soon.

He said the Fed move reflected Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's concern that U.S. market participants had become
adverse to taking risks.

Asked about the yen strengthening following the Fed easing, Miyazawa said: ``Forex rates move to and fro. I do not
think it will fluctuate greatly.''

Regarding Thursday's comments by Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami that Japan's major banks should come
forward and seek public funds, Miyazawa said if the banks thought over the issue that would likely happen.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:45 - ID#401460)

"Little Guys"
Did you see that North Korean that the NBA is trying to recruit......7'-6"+/-


(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:47 - ID#247273)
Chicken Man
It seems to me that you are in as deep as those you despise, and are playing the derivatives full-out. Is it that you are playing the short instead of long side? As Neitszche said: IF YOU STARE INTO THE ABYSS LONG ENOUGH, YOU BECOME PART OF IT. Playing derivatives casinos is a far cry from cash is king. I wish you well, but your approach confuses me. Please tell me what I have overlooked.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:48 - ID#45173)
If there's a bank failure behind today's rate cut, it ain't in Japan
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 9:47PM 13208.81 +213.44 +1.64%

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:49 - ID#225369)
I waited until noon to check the price of TVX and I knew it was going to be down; but I was hoping for up.

I think I know that gold should be higher.That's the denoument.But, this endless and eternal twisting of the plot -- this market is nuts.I refuse to let go ;yet,I want popcorn.Nothing is as it seems and I keep thinking that it can't go on.It goes on.

Maybe we would be better invested in Beanie-Babies.Do they put real beans in those things? At least,I could eat.I could use one as a ' bad call' brick and throw it at the television.What if Tyco made a Beanie laced with gold thread.Now,where is that e-mail address.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:50 - ID#287114)
The sole purpose of the federal rate cut was to bring down the value of the U.S.A. dollar.....PERIOD.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:52 - ID#45173)
Sure, but why the hurry?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:53 - ID#333126)
chicken man -
dunno about you, sir, but those t-bond charts sure look tempting again.

last 0.25% cut preceded a big t-bond sell off ... this new one raises the stakes higher.

i personally wouldn't touch the US$/Yen trade right now. way too interesting. hmm.... unless someone suggests some interesting ways to straddle it :- )

Gollum -

using individual for personal contrarian plays is allright. as long as they don't know they're being used as such. Murphy's Law rules all.

the US Fed must be running scared. hmmm....... next shake: up or down?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:54 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 27.93. The 233 day moving average is 28.70

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:55 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .254. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Thu Oct 15 1998 21:58 - ID#333126)
news outta Japan
let's see now, what's 45 trillion Yen in US$? hmm...
how much US bonds do those Japanese hold? hmmm...

LTCB ( those damn acronyms ) won't be merged with Sumitomo after all....


Namaste to all goldbugs. i will be back.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:02 - ID#26793)
Mexico again! Banks floored by trading losses.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:03 - ID#287305)
22K Pigs
Seeing that nice silver medallion made me want to show off a gold casting I made as an anniversary present to my wife. I melted 2 beat-up $10 libs to cast this ring. It is a hefty .55 ounces.

My wife and I were born in the Chinese year of the pig hence the design you see here. A short while ago it was the year of the "golden pig" which is a rare event on the Chinese calendar. I made huge gobs of money all during that period of time. As soon as the year ended I went back to my regular income level. Hope you like it.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:06 - ID#287114)
Because no other country could afford our products,a Canadian has to pay approx. $1.45 for $1.00 U.S.
This makes purchasing U.S. products exspensive which causes layoffs and a downturn in the American economy.
Even the price of gold is exspensive to many countrys.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:06 - ID#254288)

When time comes to vote for merger with Homestake:


Prime a cash rich successful miner produces about 12,000,000 ounces of silver annually and silver will eventually make its move.

Becoming a part of a Giant Homestake with many mines will not enrich either Homestake or Prime shareholders.
This proposed merger is enough to make a goldbug buy Yahoo.

Prime would be selling for a much much higher price if Homestake catagorically stated that they desire just their present 50.6% stake while working with Prime to further develope its Canadian position.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:08 - ID#285392)
Bart: The improvement could not be better!
Thanks for the great site and the good job you are doing with it. Our only fear is that you will become a millionare and we will lose the site. I wish you lots of good luck but there are limits.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:14 - ID#432136)
Here is to a market meltdown! This country deserves one after electing and supporting a jerk like Clinton! The people that believe the stock market will keep rising must be the same ones that voted for Clinton and believed his lies also!

Here is to GOLD!!!!!!!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:15 - ID#45173)
The dollar has been a problem for a long time. You might say that the strong dollar has caused the problems you describe for years. So why not wait another month for a rate drop? What's another month after tens of months of a too strong dollar?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:19 - ID#432136)
The Dollar

Here is to the dollar taking a crap! Go GOLD!!!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:21 - ID#373403)
So who are the hedge funds which made the right bets?
Also, with a 15% devaluation of the dollar and gold prices virtually standing still, gold has lost more value. Could the powerholders be so desperate to keep gold down that they would devalue the dollar?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:21 - ID#28994)
It is like this..........If Bill Clinton had a naked woman standing before him..........would he wait another month....

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:23 - ID#45173)
skinny: dropping rates helps losen credit, but hurts the con game
Business: The Economy Confidence game deepens

Thursday, October 15, 1998 Published at 18:45 GMT 19:45 UK

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:28 - ID#20748)
Bad News Brewing
That's how Fleckenstein reads today's rate cut.

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:29 - ID#260119)
John Kenneth Galbraith on his 90 th birthday predicts a recession on CBC NEWS.
He says that governments bail out the people that cause the problems.Sometimes the old are wise.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:29 - ID#432136)
Interest rate cut
I think the Feds cut the rate to hold down the dollar and help "prop" up all the other ailing economies. Also, this should help to prevent a meltdown before the elections. It is all political.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:30 - ID#20748)
The url again

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:32 - ID#43349)
Those likeable, exciteable Canadians

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:33 - ID#43349)
When you get right down to it, isn't it all just political?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:35 - ID#401460)

Gold frozen at $300 spot/$302 dec.
Trading stopped or reporting stopped?
More funny BS in the Gold markets

Good Night


(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:35 - ID#257312)
S&P vs Nikkei Comparison

Charted from 1984 to present.^N225&d=mys

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:37 - ID#28994)
Keep in mind 90% of the American press is to the left and have control over about 80% the American thinking.
The real money or movers and shakers are able to separate fact from crap and are about 10% of the population.
These are not the people building forts and buying guns for y2k,and they know there is no global depression on the horizon.
They are also the ones to put lots of crap in the lefty papers for the gullible.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:40 - ID#187109)
Has anybody been paying attention to euro's on globex??

CHA-CHING!!!$$$ And ya'all thought it was boring stuff..............? The trend is your friend.........damn what a good buddy ( ! ) . wait for the follow through........


(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:40 - ID#43349)
Away to count golden sheep
Gotta get up tomorrow to see the next part of the drama. The metals guys are going to be working overtime tonight trying to keep a lod on prices at least one more day, options expiry you know.

Good night.

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:41 - ID#341297)
AZAU @ Answer---LEVERAGE and limited risk
All of us here would love to buy more gold than our checkbooks will let us..period! including me, especialy me!...can't use grocery money to buy gold...Mama wouldn't like that!... so how do we raise lotto tickets..heck no ..poor odds.. so we go play with the hedge funds..fair game isn't it... as George Soros say's in his book "SOROS ON SOROS" --Stay ahead of the curve- ...had a hard time figuring out what he was talking about til I started "investing" that term better! ha..any way in the 4th chapter,..The theory of investing..He talks about market situations such as we are having today... get yourself a copy and will also get to know a side of the man that is very compassionate and benevolent!..I'm pretty much self taught thu trial and error. ( spelled- expired worthless! )
I'm just saying derrivatives are going to kill the markets- as we know what's wrong for me to try to raise capital the fastest way I can think of...LEVERAGE.. while they are still operating....can't play this game in Platinum...why?...cause somebody renigged on the delivery.. same thing going to happen to gold and silver...if you want to raise the price of gold,buy a "call" mid "99 and exercise it,demand a future contract!..and watch the price go right thru the ceiling...Think I'm boring everybody so I'll quit...

Just a thought...Chicken man..

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:41 - ID#260119)
I thought ...Who wants their money in a savings account for 2 lousy %?
Where will you get a return on your money? Let me see? Gold ? ( snicker ) That giant sucking sound is money leaving the US for a stable currency and decent returns.The Peso? ( snicker ) A US dollar cut in half at this stage of the game won't start a spree of buying US goods.Too much too little too late...Hmmm ..could make a song outta that...Too late.I'm weary. Gooday.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:50 - ID#300202)
@EB as Cape Breton Financial Advisor Extraordinairre
Shud I put my welfare cheques inta Euros?????????????? Whatsa Euro?

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:51 - ID#341297)
EB @ Got a question!
Got a question and I think you are just the man with the answers!...when you trade the euro just "what" are you trading...interest rates or currencies I'm stupid..tell us ..sooner or later we better ALL have learned.. unless we want to learn the hard way..

Thank You..Chicken man..

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:52 - ID#348257)
adorable pigs. very nice work.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:53 - ID#190411)
@ Gollum
Why are the Canadians so excitable?
You are sleeping, so, I shall axe the suicidal "investors" what got their hormones into the exercise mode.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 22:55 - ID#300202)
Nice Pigs Misnomer......BUT
Nice work Schultz!

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:09 - ID#257312)

Your 19:25 is MUST reading. Kitco is THE SCENE. It is worth a few bucks to keep it running smoothly. The education and insight available here are priceless.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:10 - ID#300202)
W.T.O. Announces
Growth dropped to 4% fr 9.5. EXPECT WORSE.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:11 - ID#348257)
Ludwig, where are you now that we need you
First let me state that when it comes to economics, I am a VonMisian/Rothbardian/Randian. Even Uncle Miltie Friedman is too "liberal" for me ( ;- ) . That said, I DO believe that credit booms always lead to busts. But this is not the BIG ONE. This is the "little one" that will spawn the "corrective" of easier money upon easy money that will take the currencies of the world apart. The dilution will then lead to a new leg up in the 150 year bull market in gold that began in 1934 ( wave 1 is already in, wave 2 correction since 1980 is completing now ) . I would be the last to defend the financial and credit corruptions of the world at present, but there will be no "crash." There will only be an acceleration of the chronic inflation and currency dilution that picked up speed since the 1930's. We are at a critical point where the course of the past 2 decades ( disinflation ) must be reversed by the manipulators of the currency. Fiat currency can ONLY be manipulated. The fear is here. The cry will now be "growth," "stimulation", "liquidity," and the means to achieve such conditions will be inflation - a stepped-up inflation, purposeful and virulent. It must, sooner or later express itself in a worldwide currency debasemant. In de basement.

Remember, no currency in the world is tied to specie ( gold or silver ) . There can only BE monetary manipulation, with little corresponding impact of natural law...until the very end. The end will be runaway inflation. War may be the final factor in this. Uneconomic investment will continue because the thinking of the people is uneconomic. Our children go uneducated in crumbling schools while we drive bigger and more opulent "trucks" to the mall. Like we really NEED this. I ask you, what kind of economy of investment is that? We are on a course to total destruction of both currencies and societal resources. And all we will have to show for it on judgement day will be a faster modem. That is the real problem.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:13 - ID#350282)
October (crash) icebergs 1987 and 1998?
Massive iceberg breaks free in Antarctica
The iceberg, named A-38, measures 92 miles long and 30 miles wide and covers an area of about 2,751 square miles. The Ronne Ice Shelf is the second largest in Antarctica, located in the southern Weddell Sea.

The last time an iceberg of this magnitude broke off a Southern Hemisphere Ice Shelf was B-9 in the Ross Sea in October 1987

O.K. nothing to do with gold, sorry.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:29 - ID#287186)
Crystal Ball@14:19 "Cultural Differences Explained"
Thank You for some great levity. Any Aussie, Brit, Canadian or American should enjoy it for it takes an even-handed swipe at 'em all.

BART - Thank You for the new server. Now I won't feel guilty about taking bandwidth from the serious Goldbugs by dropping in a few times during the day to catch up on the posts.

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:38 - ID#153110)
@Ludvig Scheller
Enjoyed the post. Believe your thinking may be in a tunnel, however, on the hyperinflation denouement.

That is how paper fiat ended in all Chinese episodes. True. But, hyperinflation is not the systemic risk that AG sees, is it ?

(Thu Oct 15 1998 23:40 - ID#45173)
Oct. 15 FAQ for no particular reason
Q: Will we have a stock market crash?
A: No. We already had one. Thus the liquidity crisis. We will instead have a volatile bear market for a quarter or two followed by a slow decline.

Q: Did the Fed drop rates to lessen the credit crunch? Will this keep the economy and stock markets steaming ahead?
A: Yes, the Fed dropped rates to lower the risk premium for lenders and to make the US less attractive to foreign capital, thus keeping more in economies that need it more than we do. This has long term benefits for the US economy. It will not maintain rapid growth of the US economy, that's not possible as long as foreign markets are not also growing, but may prevent it from imploding.

Q: Are we going to have a recession? Hasn't the rate drop reduced that possibility?
A: Yes. The market drop in August told us we will have a recession. The Fed has long expected an equity market drop engendered slump and is hoping for a nice little 18 - 24 month recession, rather than the monster liquidation of assets deflationary monster that was shaping up, and still might happen.

Q: Should I buy gold?
A: Always own some gold.