Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:00 - ID#341297)
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse!
Guess I'll call it a night...bonds open at 5:20 AZ time..think I'll start trading fish heads or some market that opens at a later time...peace to all and to all a good night..

(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:07 - ID#267298)
Dec. Gold
All, Does anyone know what Dec. Gold is currently Trading at?


(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:19 - ID#203137)
DEC GOLD 301.6 go to this site for regular on line updates of dec gold

(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:26 - ID#203137)
TO: chickenman
Which exchange is fishheads listed on? Have trade used socks but was unaware about fish heads.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:31 - ID#340262)

What an interesting day - was at my computer keeping an eye on a few trades that I was involved in today
with CNBC playing in the background when Ron Insana began reading of f the wire of the rate cut, the dow was at about 87 or so, and it seemed like it froze for a few minutes and then the mad rush to buy began. One thing that was quite evident was that the market makers were definatly selling into the rally - I had planned to hold my trades overnight but decided to sell at quite a good profit and see what happens next.

These moves are quite dramatic and if you are on the wrong side of them and you have substantially leveraged positions you can lose or win big time in just a matter of hours - sort of like commodity trading for the masses and might I add a bit to risky for a novice trader like myself - cjk -

(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:38 - ID#247190)
Question for Anyone on Support & Resistance
When looking at support and resistance on any given chart, Does one base support & resistance on closing price or if a support/resistance line is penetrated at any given time?
For example, if support for Gold was at $295.70, but intraday, the price dipped to $294.00 but still managed to close at or above $295.70 for the day, would you say that support was broken to the downside and one should expect new lows?...or would you say that Gold held its' support?

If support/resistance is penetrated, does the strength & or weakness of the penetration play a factor?
Does everyone have different views on this?
Thoughts please?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 00:42 - ID#411320)
If not tomorrow then the following week
You should see the biggest blood bath on wall you have ever seen
get your puts then get a front row seat into _________________________________________________

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:06 - ID#153110)
@Currency War
USG, which governs by war power not by the Constitution or by consent of the governed, favors the floating rate currency exchange system that followed the demise of the Bretton Woods agreement which USG cancelled unilaterally in order to default on its gold debt to all the countries that had a trade surplus with it.

This set the stage for the floating rate exchange system with the greenback as the reserve currency. In this system nothing matters so much as expectation and perception and clout. It is basically a war system of currency. Nothing is agreed or settled Everything is open to
revaluation hour by hour, day by day.

Think of the hedge funds as privateers. For, that, I believe, is what they are. Privateers, you may recall, were vessels commissioned by a sovereign to take ships of the enemy on the high seas. The privateer got a share of the prize. The land equivalent of a prize at sea is knpwn as booty. ( When your stuff is seized, it is booty. )

So, as you look around the currency war scene, what do you see ? Captured currencies ( Argentina ) , wounded currencies ( Korea, etc. ) , and even dead currencies. And big booty taken home by the hedge funds that did the attacking.

Of course, the fatal conceit in all this is that it is hard to settle accounts and get paid by a guy you have just killed. Unless, that is, he has everything he owns in his pockets. Countries don't have pockets.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:16 - ID#253228)
Quotes from wise minds
My brother-in-law was fond of saying that when dealing with the government probably the best way to respond was to unbuckle your belt, drop your pants and grab your ankles; it is simpler just to get it over with.

Another quote I have read, but do not remember the author, had to do with depressions. He said that a depression is in size related to the credit expansion that created the need for the depression and in length related to the attempt by the government to prevent it, the more government intervention the longer the depression. Does any of this relate to the long drawn out goings on in Japan or the recent activity by the FED.

If the banking system is frozen which would otherwise creat a credit crunch ( slow down or stop in money creation ) then is it not likely that the money supply is not sufficiently expanding to keep the economy going and that is the basis of the FED panic; they see it before we do. So, where is the purchasing power to come from to support the stock market or the gold market. Depressions take away purchasing power.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:19 - ID#344326)
Surprise rate cut
I'm getting the feeling this sudden rate cut is only adding more instability to a collapsing system. The timing of this rate cut is highly suspicious. It came out of nowhere, right before expiration and between FED meetings. The waters we are in have many strong undercurrents. I'm glad I'm in gold.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:22 - ID#253228)
Mozel the lawyer
Your conclusions are no doubt supported by your arguments. If you step back and forget all the written mumbo jumbo, isn't government just "legalized plunder" for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many. What good is the Constitution if it is simply one of the links in the invisible chain of slavery? Was it not written by people who believed in government?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:23 - ID#35757)
What about Uncle Sam's obligations - ie Insured savings accounts, Treasury bonds, Social Security etc.? It sems to me that deflation and depression is politically impossible. He has got to print the money.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:29 - ID#153102)
@seizure @Wise Minds
I oversimplied by saying your stuff that is seized is booty. But, it's always something derived from their In Right Of Being Sovereign, which is rooted in English Statuatory Common-Law. ( which ain't common-law Law, at all, but feudal. )

Of those who drop trousers, bend over, and hold their ankles for government: that is why they are aptly called sheople or sheeple.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:36 - ID#253228)
Morbius, how does an insolvent corporation pay its debts?
The current system of money creation is not printing money into existence or spending money into existence. It is loaning money into existence. The rate of money creation must be sufficient to both fund the maturing previously created loans plus interest and to also fund economic expansion.

This requires that some credit worthy borrower step forward and be approved by a banker. This requires that banks have reserves against which to make the loans and it requires confidence on the part of the banker. When loans go into default this impairs the ability of banks to make new loans and this default is one of the banking system problems no doubt being observed by the FED.

True, Billy Bob and his cronies could have the government temporarily become a big time borrower and they could use this newly created money to pass out to their favorites, but this would be at the expense of the wealth creating private part of the economy so the depression ( decline in wealth ) would continue. This is hardly the environment in which gold will soar. What will make gold valuable is a repudiation of the present paper money system. Can you imagine the banking cartel willingly giving up their present lucrative monopoly?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:38 - ID#411259)
..... Scito .....

There are no clear cut rules in any chart interpretation, but I tend to discount a small and quick breach of support or resistance. It is important to understand that some indicators are better suited to weekly charts than daily. The reverse is also true.

When trying to discern a trend, it is safe to ignore minor breaches of support - as long as the recovery occurs within a trading day, two at most if there is big news brewing. A breach of support ( and resistance ) with a quick recovery tends to reinforce the support. You are now in a consolidation or, "basing" period. If you have access to live quotes, watch the price action when prices are bumping against key levels. Is the bounce back almost immediate, or does it lay around for several minutes while folks make up their mind whether they like the price or not. A quick rebound indicates building support. The laggard metal, slow to recover, is telling you it could go lower.

When drawing a trendline, use closing prices. When investigating support or resistance, you must use every extreme the chart shows you. This is why it is so important to have access to live prices, so you can get a feel for how strong the barrier is. Beware of candlesticks - unless you know them intimately - excellent indicators of trend reversals, but buggers to accurately read.

The break below 278 in gold did not convince me we would see new lows. The recovery was very rapid, and a nice rally ensued. The next trip down - if there is one - look for a probe of these lows. Failure to breach them should tell you its time to buy. Likewise, watch the upside; how many times does it bump against the ceiling? If resistance is breached and falls back in a second or two, the sell order was there, waiting for the price. This tells you these guys are confident enough to put limit orders on in a toppy market.

These tools cannot be used in a void. What is the trading volume like? In light volume days, a single buy or sell order of moderate size can move the market significantly. What are the commitment of traders? Who is long, who is short? Watch the commercials and industrials for silver and platinum, with more attention towards the funds in gold.

All of these tools will not protect you if all the charts are right, silver looks very weak after a extended 1.20 rally, you lay in a few shorts, wake up the next morning to find that Warren Buffet just bought 1/5 of the world's silver. All lines disappear in a market like that, and you could get caught in a 40 cent gap up in a heartbeat. This happened to me last December.

All the charts in the world cannot predict the unexpected.

Ultimately, if you are a trader, it is an educated ( hopefully ) roll of the dice. If you are looking for the right time to buy for possession, anywhere within 5% above whatever the ultimate bottoms turns out to be, is a great buy. This means that anywhere near 285 is a good time to buy - provided the bottom does hold. Look to fundamentals in gold for the next three months, switching your focus to technicals near the beginning of the year.

This has not been a solicitation to buy or sell.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:53 - ID#253228)
If one views the origion of the universe in religious terms, then it is possible to argue, ad infinimum, the meaning of the various documents that support this theory of existence. If one views the origion of the universe in scientific terms, then these arguments are meaningless.

Likewise, if one believes in government, then the documents of various government over history may be of some importance in supporting one's view of the world, and one's view of the propriety of a certain action of government. If someone such as myself rejects the idea that government has legitamacy, then all these documents are meaningless. Rather, the view becomes one of how to avoid the thugs that use the cloak of government to exploit the majority, or to force the majority to comply to whatever insanity exist in their respective minds. Government is a combination of force and insanity imposed upon free men for the financial and/or emotional benefit of those in control of government, all disguised as necessary protection. "To protect and serve", rather read as to plunder and subjugate.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 01:56 - ID#284255)
Microsoft White Paper on the Euro
Art Bell Quits
The results of the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan

Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge

(Fri Oct 16 1998 02:14 - ID#340383)
It's been a long day, and I was just kicking back, dreaming of sugarplums. Well, no. Actually, thinking about the price of silver being under US$5.00 for the past little while, and the US$ going down,
thinking about the news I read a while back that stated Indian farmers had good crops two years in a row. The good crops, and the accompanying high comfort level and income level, are ( imho ) chief deciding factors in India's consumption of silver. The price in rupee appears to me to be below the threshold where price resistance is a big factor. So, it is my thought that India must be buying up a lot of silver. And if not, why not? Does anyone have hard numbers or projections?
Big purchases by India will do more to raise the price of Silver than Warren Buffett would, because whatever WB buys, he would sooner or later put back on the market, and *we* all know that. [And what *if* there are 500,000,000 ounces of silver tucked away in London? As I recall, India's net purchases were above this figure in one recent year.]
India is the number one reason that ( IMHO ) I expect the price of Silver to explode upward sometime soon. For it to not do so continues to not make sense. Any thoughts?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 02:35 - ID#350145)
@Jeil re govt and H.L. Mencken
let me get this right. you don't believe in govt. well maybe you should take a look at history, because there is plenty of it without govt, and it is replete with the strong beating up the weak - and it still happens today. this is the most humane period in mankinds history because we have the most sophisticated government ( read LAWS ) in history. As H.L. Mencken once said: for every complex problem there is a simple answer and it is usually wrong!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 02:49 - ID#266105)

What other kind of boxes keep men free besides
soap and Pandora's.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 02:53 - ID#25490)

Sometimes, real life is too unbelievable to be true. This from sharefin's recent link to MS & Euro:

"The culmination of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe it is, to quote Price Waterhouse, "..the political equivalent of putting a man on the moon. Nothing similar has been attempted before." If it all goes according to plan, the single currency should bring a host of advantages to business.'

Now, I wonder:

Why were those words used, "political equivalent"? Why was there nothing mentioned of "Man's greatest Adventure" or "The greatest Challenge mankind has mastered?" You know, the moon thing..

What say you all? Was the moonwalk a political achievement? If it was a political achievement,and not a scientific/academic trial, then, why mozel's unconventional views are worth a second, third and fourth look.

Nothing "political" is without taint until it can be proven so.

Some years ago a wonderful documentery series "War Correspondent" included a 40 SECOND movie from WWII of a frigate being torpedoed, listing to starboard and sinking. It only took 40 seconds.
That film was never shown during WWII, it was shown for the first time in the docu.

There was also footage of Dunkirk. First footage of what was shown in the movie theatres at the time... cheerful men disembarking, waving, laughing, this was compared with actual footage of men disembarking in Southampton after Dunkirk. Dirty, wounded, dispirited, defeated.
The first footage was taken before the invasion! A camera crew went to Southampton and filmed the crew of two or three ships perform disembarkation exercises before they even left port. The crews were coached to look cheerful, they thought they weren't going over.

In WWII the propoganda ministries were able to tell lies with impunity that were not doubted. How much more technologically able are dmned gobmints now.

mozel. I hope there's still room on your bench.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 02:55 - ID#153120)
government is not your buddy
From my reading of history the worst offender of the weak has been government. Anytime in history where thousands ( millions in the 20th century, the century of Big Government ) of people have died in a short organized manner and I'll show you taxpayers money hard at work. The wonder of the American government before the 20th century was that government did so little in the way of ordering life in the US and how well things went. Not a perfect system mind you but to my taste a lot better than having Big Brother looking at my financial progress every year to see how every thing is going along. Why do we need so many police in this country? Because they have a revolving door on the prisons? Yes I'm sure that is one of the reasons.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:00 - ID#411259)
..... Feeling Speedy .....

I timed the access to the Kitco site.

From a dead stop, I launced Netscape, waited fore the password negotiation, connected to kitco, and the
entire page loaded:

Time Elapsed: 50 seconds

Now THAT'S movin'.

Uh Huh

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:04 - ID#153120)
Mole: The law is good, but!
It is worthless if it is not enforced equally. Klinton and his leftist supporters are making a mockery of the Law in the US. They want to rewrite the campaigne contributions laws, why? The Democrates have violated the laws they themselves enacted after Watergate in 1975-76. When has it ever been legal for Commies or drug dealers to contribute to a US presidential campaigne? Is Klinton pushing for this to be made official? The current gang in control of the Democratic party are a lawless gang of thugs, they are no friends of the Law.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:08 - ID#193163)
Maybe you need a new computer - I get the Kitco page up in
around 2 seconds .... I have cable internet, but I'm not sure
that would account for the difference.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:11 - ID#253228)
mole, yes I do not believe in government
I think that there has never been a time when some group of thugs did not attempt to steal the production of the majority. Sometimes it was called government and sometimes it was not, but it was the same result.

We really don't know what a period without government would be like because it has never been experienced. However, Rose Wilder Lane, in her book the Disocvery of Freedom, points out that periods of relative freedom from governemet have been periods of great human progress, while periods of high government ( intense slavery ) have been periods of economic stagnation and massive human suffering.

I am not opposed to self defense or organized self defense. I am opposed to the hijacking of the organization for this mutual self defense by those who require purchasing their defense services. The Mafia and the "government" are both required services. Free markets can bring the same services on a volintary basis in a much more effective manner. Unfortunately, it is impossible for the free market alternative to manifest itself once the government/Mafia take over.

I am not the least bit sympathetic to your view of life.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:13 - ID#25174)
Re Government

The impression of government as an organised disciplined group,
like moriarty at the centre of a conspiratorial web is ludicrous.
Government is merely one phenotype of the expression of millions
of people pursuing their daily tasks. The difference is that today
the PEOPLE have decided that instant gratification is the cure to
their boredom. Thus heads of government who mirror the peoples
values are elected, and are prone to the same failings.
Fortunately, nature has ways of toppling rotten trees without good
roots. For this reason gold WILL again underpin currencies, it just
takes time for the old tree to decay and the new to grow.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:25 - ID#25490)

Welcome to kitco. Which part of the lucky country do you call home?
I hope you have joined the lobby group to exempt au* from that pernicious GST youse fellas voted for.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:30 - ID#266105)

Say RJ, since calling plat at $400 on its way to five or
or six hunnerd, what say now.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:34 - ID#266105)

Eh, Aurator, is it true they popped Shakespeare's crypt
once and if so, wha'd they find.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:35 - ID#25174)
Aurator, Gday

Thanks for the welcome, I hail from the part where you cant drink the

water ,

that is Sydney as distinct from the part without gas or without electricity.

Must be that solar flare that razed the earth some time back giving us all

a free x-ray and sending the markets spinning. The Good for Some Tax is an

example of how the greater populace will act in their worst interests just

about every time. A bit like being a trader !

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:36 - ID#316193)
John Crudele -- "Maybe there are severe problems at one or more financial
institutions. Maybe a big New York City bank or brokerage
firm is in trouble."

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:37 - ID#25490)
That is the question.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:41 - ID#266105)
I call architecture frozen music. Goethe
Good answer.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:44 - ID#25490)
tip o my "drifter" to you..

Ludd! I like Sydney! What a town! Pity about the water and the disruption that the Y2K Lympix are causing yer. Will be some show, eh?
Ain't it amazing that our antipodean cities are, one at a time, getting a glimpse of how we can/could cope with a real emergency?

After Auckland was Sydney then Melbourne. I suppose a chartist would say "Watch out Perth!" Then: "Duck J'bourg"

It is, IMHO, like innoculation. Take a little of the 'bug' to develop an immunity for when the BIG BUG COMETH.

get golf.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:48 - ID#25490)

"There's nothing remarkable about music. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself."
Johann Sebastian Bach

(Fri Oct 16 1998 03:55 - ID#386245)
Just exchanged contracts on a property sale. Cashed up and FEELIN' MEEEEEEEEEEAAN!!

Now wither goest gold. Another failure at $300?? Dizzy says BUY. No SELL. No SIDEWAYS. No UPPITYDOWN. Better ask fruit of loins again, Dizzy.

I feel like a kangaroo sitting frozen in the headlights of an oncoming semitrailer!! Don't know which way to jump.
Goin' to the basketball game and gonna punish the brewski in celebration. Have a whole weekend to decide on my craps table bet.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:00 - ID#266105)
Godel, Escher, Bach the eternal golden braid

Insufferable book.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:02 - ID#266105)

Hey Nick, is Laverton ever gonna trade again.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:06 - ID#25490)

Yes. The days are sweet when the world sings to us. Good fortune is always warranted, either already, or soon.

Thought you might like to hear ANOTHER musician's THOUGHTS, well, you know what I mean:

"Recommend to your children virtue; that alone can make them happy, not gold."
Ludwig van Beethoven:

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:07 - ID#316193)
USAgold Has a Late Update (Just in Case You Missed it)

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:10 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
ForThurs 15 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate-0.52---------------1.30-------------1.49-----------------1.88
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( - 0.12 ) ------- ( + 0.09 ) ------------ ( - 0.11 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate--4.20--------------3.40--------------3.00-----------------2.30
Silver Lease Rate-1.21--------------1.94--------------2.16-----------------2.61
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.30 ) -------- ( + 0.35 ) ------ ( - 0.25 ) ----------- ( - 0.09 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .
Note that the above rates were recorded before the Fed lowered short interest rates by 0.25%.
Note also that the rate change may have affected the Contango ( =MGLR or Silver Lend Rate ) . In the case of Gold I have estimated the 1-month MGLR was decreased by approx 0.2% and the 12-month MGLR was Increased by approx 0.05%. The amended rates would thus appear as follows for this morning:
GOLD------------1- month--------12-month
Gold Lease Rate-0.47--------------1.58

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:12 - ID#25490)
Book? What insufferable book? Ludd I've read some, but which is it that you condemn without cavil? Of what golden braid do you speak so casual?
Puzzled minds are quizzical


(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:15 - ID#258195)
For Nick@C
Did you see my posts timed yesterday at 04:18 and 17:06?..........just in case not. Regards..........Dabchick

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:16 - ID#432148)
govt - Jeil,your0l:53
Essentially agree with you. As a Libertarian I of course believe the less govt the better, as the founding U.S. fathers believed. au*stralian - well said, we get what we deserve in the end, and that is usually where we get it from most govt's, in my book. A necessary evil in part.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:16 - ID#266105)

Aurator-- Godel, Escher, Bach subtitle an Eternal Golden Braid
1980. Douglas Hofstader, he's got some more books out,
works in AI field these days.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:18 - ID#432148)
Site is much improved. Thanks again for your gracious addition to civilization ;- ) Much appreciated!

John Disney
(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:22 - ID#24135)
For Nick ..
DIZ says nozzing .. Diz bought .. son says "watch out".
Right now jse golds up 3 %..
What works for me rarely works for others and vice
Am in and VERY nervous .. gold does not convince me
.. yesterday 10 minutes before close it did.

All the many who foresaw crashes in sp500 should
consider asking themselves if they really know what
they are talking about.. Son said buy sp500 november
calls .. I didnt and his broker screwed up the his
so .. he isnt much fun to talk to. Im not either .. I
hate it when Im nervous.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:22 - ID#153110)
@Jeil @Preserving Government By War Power
The united States won their Independence in a Union made by Articles of Confederation. Why a Constitution was proposed in 1787 and how it was adopted are questions which have been answered for us by government teachers in government schools deceitfully if at all.

There is a reason why you think law talk is mumbo jumbo. The reason is somebody wants you to think that way. So long as you think that way, they can most conveniently control you with words. You might as well be a Hottentot in Turkey if the language by which you are governed is mumbo jumbo to you. In both instances, you are at the mercy of a translator, whom you must hire ( and trust ) . The fact this vital fact is not taught us benefits somebody, but not us, the governed. Constitution worship is not recommended by me, but the rules of the game are set out there in part, and I think it is prudent to know them. Since we are in the game wily nilly.

Government is what men make of it. The people who preceded us on this continent did not believe in government. But they recognized that they had to have an earthly government. As a lesser of two evils.

Governments exert power over the governed by and through law. It is idle to talk of government, theoretically. The actual of government is law. The party that governs you or me, usually, is an attorney. A lawyer for hire. The privilege of being for hire is granted to a lawyer by government. A condition of that privilege is that the lawyer's first duty is to government. He is an officer of the court. He is part of the overhead of government, though he is paid, not out of taxes, but from fees.

How did this come about and why ? Well, let's suppose that you want to preserve a government by war power which is literally against the Law. The first thing you must do is deceive the governed into thinking it is not that kind of government. You do that by leaving the the old government which was for Law in place, but add Freedman amendments by war power. Then, you do any number of things to discourage people from appearing in court not by attorney while enacting statutes to which the attorneys and The Freedmen, as privileged creatures of your creation, are subject. Pretty soon Freedmen and Freemen are merged by attorney. You enrich the lawyers for hire for their service to you ( out of the pockets of their clients at no cost to yourself as government ) . You and the lawyers have a shared interest in complicating the rules and procedures to further discourage people from appearing not by attorney. The lawyers oblige. They also create the barrier of law school and of exam tailored to the indoctrination of law school. To preserve the government by war powers which is against the Law has been transformed into the object of a profession now. Anybody who doesn't go along is disbarred. Rules for common law pleading, equity, admiralty, and maritime are combined to further complicate matters. All courts but the Supreme Court are effectively redone as legislative tribunals by Acts of Congress. Reported and published cases are those that contribute to the object of the profession. After a while, even the professional lawyers are not taught Law. Everything is mumbo jumbo except to a few and governing is easy and highly profitable. You can actually trace the approaching shadow of this story back to before 1800, but Lincoln and the Reconstruction Congresses really began it in earnest.

There is another chapter on preserving government by war power which is against the Law by using fiat credit to subvert the substance of the old government and restructure it. FDR and the New Deal Congresses began that chapter.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:23 - ID#25490)
As a librarian, I agree with you.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:30 - ID#25490)
Russel doesn't like it when you're nervous either.

Of course, you know what this turbo-charged electric laser kitco means, eh? Back to reading only 170+ pages per day. ( ppd )

During the Great Kitco Slowdown aka kitzlo, aurators only had to read 70-80 ppd, and therefore could afford a modicum of social life.

So, it's back to eidetic memory mode,eh?

My musical knees are singing a song "stay well away from s ( t ) ocks"

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:42 - ID#25490)
Once more your words ring with golden truth. I went to law school more than a decade after my peers. & Oftimes was astonished that one had to got to law school to 'learn' the constitutional rights accorded to the individual. I concluded it was a conspiracy of maintaining an ignorance standard. Knowledge of the history of kings and queens, parliaments and revolutions is essential for survival in this world of papier-mche.

From your posts, I surmise there are great constitutional parallels 'twixt US & NZ. If my friend in silk is lurking he may wish to shine a torch, kitco would be richer for it.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:44 - ID#266105)
TV Nation

I sometimes wonder if the average 7-9 second camera angle
and concommitant attention span has been transplanted to this

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:48 - ID#25490)
Which medium?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 04:49 - ID#266105)


(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:00 - ID#25490)
The boxer rebellion---
Enigma man?

You Shhh me? You try to stiffle mois? You try to gag the auratoracious strutting his stuff for a brief moment upon an historic stage that is crammed with the sages@pages.kitco? Okay. But, I wonder.....

I have not yet found the ansa to your

"What other kind of boxes keep men free besides soap and Pandora's.?"

And I shall not sleep till i unravel ( unpack? ) the riddle.

( Well maybe I shall ) I give up. What box ?

( and i bet only antipodeans see my indelicacy )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:04 - ID#266105)
TV or not TV

And then why the aerodynamics of an egg.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:12 - ID#252391)
Wake me up when it starts.!!!
At 5am gold is at $299.99 - can we get any closer to $300 spot.??
Gold may become an investment of choice just because it doesn't go anywhere. Everything else flying all over the place the volitility may make gold look inviting. GOLD THE NEW STABLE INVESTMENT!!!

Seems this week we got the XAU back in line with the metals to some degree.

With you John Disney - Long but nervous - got some dry powder some of which I'll fire if, after NY Lunch, gold and the miners are firming.

A down close on the XAU below 71-72 and I'm out of here.

You know watching this non action in gold we missed the big play - HONG KONG; big jump there nobody has been talking about. We knew US rates were falling that the dollar was falling what would that be bullish for - GOLD - Not really - HK stocks very much so.

We've go too much tunnel vision here.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:18 - ID#258302)

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:20 - ID#386129)
bloody oath mate....bit risque..

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:21 - ID#25490)
wherever Bart's prices are coming from, they are volatile! Tonight I've seen 300.00: 299.80 at this very moment we're 300.10 + 3.00.

Perhaps the server is having dexadrin-induced hallucinations....

Casey Jones you better watch your speed.
Trouble ahead. Trouble behind.
And you know that notion,
Just crossed my mind.

Just ANOTHER dead-head.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:22 - ID#284255)
Out with the bubbly? Eh?

Must be my turn next. ^o-o^

This one almost live off a Y2k forum.

Roleigh Martin.
What you need to ask your power providor!!!
Thank you for being our guest on the list!

I would like to know if your opinion on the severity of the utilities
situation has changed for the better or the worse - what number are you
on the scale from one to ten? Have you found that Canada will fare
better or worse than the US as far as the grid goes?

On a more personal note - I would like to know how you handle the steady
stress of the Y2k problem. We deal with this all the time on the list
as well as in our own lives. Do you find you have to get away from any
Y2k input at times in order to keep your sanity?

Thanks again,

: earthmom

Hi Earthmom,

Sorry I joined in late. I'll be glad to participate
tomorrow too, if you all can forgive my lateness

The utility issue ultimately comes down to your
locality. It is important to know where your own
utilities stand.

The important questions/issues are these:

1 ) Have you ( the utility ) identified all mission-critical equipment
that needs to be remediated through a vendor order placed, and have
you placed those orders, and have you been given firm ship dates that
convince you that you will receive and install all those items in
time? If not, how far along are you in this task? What is your
projected finish date?

2 ) Have the utilities' mission critical vendors ( for example,
railroads and coal mines for coal power plants ) identified all
mission-critical equipment that needs to be remediated through a
vendor order placed, have they placed these orders, and have they been
given firm ship dates that convince them that they will receive and
install all these items in time? If not, how far along are they in
this task? What is their projected finish date?

3 ) What are the utilities' contingency plans for loss of raw

4 ) What is the electric utility's contingency plan if the grid or
telecommunications is down?

a ) Can the utility still serve you by operating as an "island"
independent of the grid "being up" or not?

b ) Can the utility still serve you if telecommunications is down?

5 ) What simplifying assumptions did the engineers and programmers at
the utilities make to minimize physical testing in their Y2K E.S.

a ) ( legitimate example: If the device is analog, no further
examination was done. )

b ) ( alarm signals: type testing was done; vendor compliance
statements were not verified if they said "Y2k OK" )

If utilities, along with their mission-critical suppliers, have not
yet placed their key orders with satisfactory turn-around times, any
statements they make that they are on schedule are inconclusive and
hence unreliable. They do not know what their schedule is yet--for
each vendor may have different turn-around times, assuming they have a
Y2K upgrade yet -- the utilities have multiple deadline dates for each
mission-critical part they need to order! If utilities have placed
their orders but they have made many risky simplifying assumptions to
reduce their remediation scope, they could have an unacceptable
probability of failing badly.

It is probably too late to ask the government to create new agencies
to mandate the utilities to report the above information. In your
lobbying efforts, you might propose such, but as a fallback, attempt
to work with these existing agencies that exist in most State
governments--in total, the vital core infrastructure Y2K E.S.
monitoring might be done through them if they are sold on the idea.
( Special thanks to Rep. Bill Hilty, Co-Chair Minnesota House-Senate
Y2K Task Force, for teaching me who to approach for what in
State-level Y2K matters. )

# State Public Utility Commissions for electric, telecomm and natural
gas utilities. ( In some States, you might also approach a Department
of Public Service or the Attorney General's office too. )

# State Department of Public Health for water utilities as most states
require them to meet certain water quality standards.

# State-level OSHA divisions in your State's Department of Labor or a
State-level EPA divisions for doing oversight of chemical factories.

# One or more of the above might be useful in approaching the

# The Department of Administration should be approached as they
typically have the power to reassign people from different agencies to
more important tasks if deemed in the government need. Existing
staffing levels in the agencies may inhibit them from doing this
additional information gathering and analysis.

# The Federal Government might be able to help gather more reliable
information ( they are not so far ) via strong corporate lobbying of
OSHA, FERC, NRC, EPA, Department of Mines, SEC, DOE, Federal Railroad
Administration, and the President's Y2K Council and PCCIP Commission.

# Lobby intensely at the city, county, state, and federal level --
involve all of your employees, managers, and if possible solicit the
help of any others you can reach -- numbers count immensely in
lobbying for quick action. Do you recall how fast the elder
population rescinded the new Medicare taxes during the Reagan years?
Do not put your hopes in one basket.

# If you need to hire lobbyists or Y2K researchers to do this, for the
larger corporations who serve numerous communities, it will easily be
cost-justifiable. If you can reduce core infrastructure losses by a
small two digit percent through these actions, you'll be saving
millions in most cases, perhaps hundreds of millions in some cases.

Next, where do I stand on a scale of 1-10, with 10
being Gary North?

I don't believe things will be uniform everywhere,
I believe the average will be a 7 with variations
plus or minus up to 2 in different locations, so as
bad as a 9 in some places as "not so bad" as a 5 in

Personally, how am I doing?

I'm continuing to read, write, occasionally read
some novels ( I found 4 y2k novels so far, just got
novel #3 in today, the 4th I've ordered but not
yet received ) , exercise, and work on my own fallback
orders, and continue my straight job and dealing
with being a houseowner, father, husband, and movie
buff. I've gotten emotionally dulled over the
seriousness of the issue and am continuing a lot on
auto-pilot, but it's hard to stay scared for so
many months/years, don't you think?


There's more if you're interested?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:26 - ID#266105)



(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:28 - ID#271125)
Graphs..can anyone help with finding a Dow Jones over gold price Historic as possible..A fellow in London told me it is VERY illuminating.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:29 - ID#25490)
is this a rocket or a damp squib?
You pulling your levers? Cos someone's pulling something. Perhaps, my leg.

we got 300.40. + 3.30

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:37 - ID#252391)
"Greenspan knows something we don't know"
Heard said on CNBC as London gold crossed at $300.50. Hey I bet he does.

To earlier poster regarding Indian silver - I read somewhere today that Indian silver demand is very high - they imported something like 15 million oz from the US. Comex stocks are thought to be going in that direction.

Hong Kong up something like 8% today. Move has been from 7000 to 9800 - hello - missed that one.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:41 - ID#26793)
I can mail you the Dow/Gold Ratio Chart.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:43 - ID#284255)

lefty kiwi
(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:44 - ID#32176)
re predicting a dow crash
Hats off to Mike Sheller on his call for strong upmove in the Dow
Fortunately I did not follow my own suggestion to short the S&P500

However for my next prediction .... the Dow will definitely crash
in twelve months time because if AG keeps reducing interest rates at the current pace then interests rates will be zero by then ..... on second thoughts that should be positive for shares ???
I know nuthin .

whats this Casey Jones bit .... I have just been to Albany watching Stacey Jones trying to catch Kangaroos .... Graeme Lowe would be better off buying $4 million worth of Gold than the Warriors

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:50 - ID#271125)
Thanks Donald..mail enroute

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:50 - ID#252391)
From USA Gold
Here's a piece of news bullish for gold: According to
today's Financial Times ( London ) "the London Metal Exchange plans
to introduce regulations to stop hedge funds and other big speculators manipulating the market by short selling..."

Very good article on USA Gold - URL posted earlier.

You know I think this Hedge Fund Gold short thing may be about to unwind.
Well, I've been sitting around this board long enough to know if that happens I'll want to be long. Return on gold equities may even make up for the missed opportunity in HK

Also CNBC reporting bombing in Kosovo may start this weekend - sorta like the snow. I'm sorry to report I don't even know whose side I'm supposed to be on. UP DATE!!! deadline may be extended by 10 days. Gosh I'm even further confused.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 05:57 - ID#432157)


(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:00 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: Just before yesterday's .25% rate cut, the one
month lease rates dropped by about the same amount. Was this
manipulation to keep the silver carry alive in the face of
declining interesst rates?????? Today, silver leases are up
to 1.3%, and the London Metal Exchange is making noises about
limiting the action of hedge funds in shorting gold ( and silver? )

Are our government regulatory agencies finally waking up to the
fact that allowing hedge funds to convert real assets to paper
assets for short term gain in pm carry operations is deflationary?

If the powers that be do step in to terminate the gold/silver carry,
we get a real supply and demand market again, and the upward price
action is going to be Biblical.

Note the gold carry will still operate in COMEX, and one month lease
rates are now .47%! The powers that be are now exerting extraordinary
efforts to control the price of gold. If gold rises as the USD falls
after the most recent rate cut, that would be the kiss of death for the
USD. Even the Canadian dollar will be a flight to quality currency.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:00 - ID#33184)
$/yen ... going, going, ...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:03 - ID#413109)
Just think of it
Use your imagination, and even project into the future, it's fun.

2 lines going in opposite directions, that's the picture of the DOW vs GOLD, and
from here into the long range future, the directions will change. Take it from me-
I'm an authority?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:04 - ID#43349)
It will be nice if the London Boullion Market Association does as much to control price manipulation in the precious metals as the London Metals exchanje is talking about doing with base metals.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:06 - ID#43349)
I believe the LME deals with base metals and the LBMA with the precious.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:24 - ID#43349)
Ooops! Honey, I shrunk the dollar/yen.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:29 - ID#43349)
Globex moderately down, Bonds moderately up, dollar mucho down amd yen very up, metals up, oil up. Actually almost all commodities are up.

The decline in the amount bonds are up looks menacing.

The dogs of $US inflation are straining at the leash, and the leash is unravelling.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:30 - ID#119358)
Happy KevDay, pal.

un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!!


(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
Bankers are suddenly backing out of commitments made on deals.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:44 - ID#43349)
Deja Japan

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:48 - ID#26793)
Nissan suffers massive losses on investments.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Mexican Bancomer clobbered by trading losses

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:50 - ID#258195)
James Grant letter in this morning's FT
This is a transcript of a letter which is placed at the top oftoday's letter page in the Financial Times this morning.
From Mr James Grant
Sir, Since time out of mind, lenders and borrowers have been alternately overdoing it and underdoing it. Having previously lent too much, the world's bankers will now make amends by lending too little. This is the "traditional" credit cycle to which Martin Wolf refers ( "Back to the future", October 14 ) .
What is not quite traditional about the contemporary cycle are the monetary and regulatory circumstances in which it has unfolded. With the best of intentions, activist governments and central banks have contributed to the sytematic under-pricing of credit by suppressing the volatility of "floating" exchange rates and socialising the risk of loss in banking.
In the 1990's under-priced loans promoted over-valued markets. Nobody was heard to object to these distortions during the long boom
So if the monetary-policy prescription for the bust is to be more and more "liquidity", the world's creditors might begin to consider a small reallocation of assets : fewer bonds, more gold.
James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, 30 Wall Street, New York, NY 10005, US

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:51 - ID#43349)
"new global financial system architecture"

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:56 - ID#26793)
Liquidity problems may be greater than expected.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 06:57 - ID#119358)
@The Great Vampire........the government.
There are so many worthless, immoral, unethical, bloodsucking sumabitches malignantly multiplying in all levels of government that capitalism is now doomed to a horrible death. These insidious e.bola public germs have invaded and destroyed the vitality of all industrious organisms.
Know two things of these talking bacterium:

1. They will say anything to get your money.

2. They will do anything to get your money.

They leech the good from our labor and continue to exist as a result of our bleeding heart negligence. Like the good doctor, I dedicate my being to the eradication of these menaces.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:06 - ID#288466)

(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:15 - ID#401460)

Your liquidity problem post, what is really important to note is who made the statement.

``The unusual move by the Federal Reserve had a slight air of menace about it as it
suggested liquidity problems may be greater than expected, which may prompt more
safe-haven buying of gold,'' said Dinsa Mehta, managing director for global commodities at
Chase Manhattan Bank in New York.

``But in the longer term it may also mean the world is beginning a reflationary cycle, which
may also make gold more attractive,'' he said.

The Chase Bank

Don't they have a major ownership position in the Federal Reserve?

The Chase is owned by the Rockefellers, who as we all know are definitely connected to what ever is happening.

"Reflationary Cycle" sounds good for Gold.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:17 - ID#258195)
Rhody @ your 06:00 today
1. According to the FT data the Lease rates did NOT drop in the way you described
2. What makes you think that Precious Metal dealers would go anywhere near the London Metal Exchange?
Your postings continue to baffle me, and others too, I suspect. Please take more time to do your homework and try not to spread disinformation. I hope you can accept this as the constructive criticism which it is intended to be. Regards..............Dabchick I hate being critical.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:23 - ID#341189)
Morning gold news - Aussies buying back positions?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:46 - ID#25174)
Kitco indicator
Two days ago the kitco board was filled with pessimism, shorts and
conspiracies regarding gold. This must mean the bottom is in and its
time to join the golf club .
go golf !

(Fri Oct 16 1998 07:50 - ID#37463)
Quote from October 15 Contrarian re: Prime drop
Take the money and run... Anybody who doesn't have
to be in the market should take advantage of whatever
rally ensues and get the hell out. Obviously there are
tremendously large problems in the world if the Fed
panicked like this. You are going to see the dollar turn to
confetti over time. All these problems are just going to
pile up. Use this rally as a gift and take your money and

I have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow, but I
wouldn't be surprised to see a dramatic turnaround in
stocks happen rather quickly once it starts. We are in
uncharted waters. I expect the dollar to get crushed and
gold to shoot higher. The Fed has no respect for
markets, as it sees fit to manipulate them all.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:00 - ID#348257)
Dabchicks's post a few moments ago of a quote from Jim Grant fits with my interpretation last night. In your 23:38 questioning of my inflation hypothesis of yesterday you asked what Greenspan sees as the prime systemic risk Of course it is deflation. We all know that. While erudite Kitcoites saw this coming a long time ago ( for we stand on cherokee's shoulders and see far ahead thereby ) now everyone in creation is mouthing the word deflation ( gee...I might just be the Cassius Clay, the Mohammed Ali, of the markets! ) .

I guess I'm just a contrarian by nature. Long ago, when just a teen, never having been exposed to investing or trading or such, my Dad once called me a "contrarian." Ahhh. Karma. I bridled then, but he was right. It is PRECISELY in the reaction to the perceived evil that we inevitably conjure another, usually worse evil with which to combat it. This has been the fiat money pattern, and the cycling will continue until a gold standard is adopted. But this will not happen until the current monetary and currency systems are totally washed out. If a depression is on the way, the nature of the world economy at present, while precarious as far as debt is concerned, is not yet in the state necssary for financial armageddon. If Greenspan, and, more importantly the politicians, were still fighting inflation, I would worry about all out deflation. But this is the first Kondratieff Wave in history where no currency is tied to gold, and Jim Grant put it so eloquently when he said the "socialization" of debt insurance has masked the risk premium and reduced it ominously. WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT THINGS ARE WORTH. This is both a philosophical as well as financial problem. The philosophical always comes first. I detect NO change in human philosophy currently, and so I expect one final orgy of currency dilution, credit expansion, fiscal irresponsibility, and debt pyramiding before the "BIG ONE."
All my technical and astrological indicators for gold and silver, America, and the NYSE point to the years from 2003-2017 as a major crisis period.

But I've been wrong before.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:06 - ID#258427)
Silver about to go into backwardation (However you spell that word)
Spot $4.96...Dec 4.96...go gold and ssc

Mike Sheller
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:09 - ID#348257)
one other thing ( OOT ) - Alan Greenspan, whatever can be said back and forth about him, thoroughly understands the gold standard and has played ALL sides of the monetary game. This man is both an Ayn Randian objectivist and a power-weilding statist. An extraordinary combination. Whether he will be seen as the best Fed Chair or the Worst, I am not qualified to judge. But I say this - once this extraordinary man is gone from the scene, along with Mr Rubin, it is highly doubtful that we will see replacements of anywhere near the intellectual , philosophical ( at least in the case of AG ) and mental stature. Imagine Bill Clinton as Chairman of the Fed and you'll get my drift. As statesmanship deteriorates, the likelihood increases that we will shortly see Fed officials who think like the Russian who recently suggested his treasury simply "print money." Well...duhhh. "When you see the abomination that makes desolate sitting in the holy place, you willknow the end is near."We're getting there, but we ain't there yet.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:15 - ID#348257)
tolerant 1

Would that I could throw myself upon a human leach pad and render from my body every microgram of gold and silver and other precious metals, the husk of my corpse tossed into the rockpile of rubble like rubles, glistening, acid-bathed in the sun

I would do this for you
that you might craft one more glittering coin
to pluck from the ear of a delighted child
one insouciant sombrero
to tickle a lady's fancy

A gulp and a puff too ya.

Happy birfday Kev.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:20 - ID#255226)
Delphi - excellent analysis
I apologize for not getting back to you sooner. My grand Slam trade of buying out of the money puts is looking like a little dribbler right now, do I wish I were long like you, sure do. Would I do the same trade again absolutely? Given the look of the chart and all the cycles pointing down into today and Monday. Unfortunately not all markets hit their cycle highs or lows by going from A to B, sometimes they travel by way of Z first. But it's not over until the Fat Lady sings. Anytime I can risk a $100 or less per option with the potential out come of -$100 to + $ 10,000 I'm going to pull the trigger. The business is not about picking winners and losers, it's about risk and reward. I try to present situations when the risk is low compared to the potential

The SnP ran up and stopped at the bottom of the previous support, an event I was looking for about 7 days ago. Could the market get creamed today? Sure, why not all the good news is out there. The XAU is gonig back under 70 and gold is going to pull back and test the top of its channel line ( currently at 290 ) just as the SnP rallied back to test its previous support.

I pitty the guy who had buy stops around 1035 in the SnP yesterday, blinked and got filled at 1075 or worse in the emini.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:20 - ID#35571)
Dollar/Yen Armageddon

When they get done, the Japanese will be able to BUY all our banks.

Why do I have the feeling someone is selling treasuries into the rally?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:24 - ID#45173)
Any guesses on what the DOW's gonna do today? Guess it all depends on that other shoe, eh?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:28 - ID#35571)
Something wicked this way comes
Well so far August September and what we've seen of October have made good warming up excercises. Now we are about to see the rattlesnake of all rattlesnakes.

Might be a good time to stay inside and mark your doorway with lamb's blood.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:30 - ID#35571)
I don't think we'll see the other shoe till next week. The globex is pointing to a small retrace from yestrday's near record gains.

Mike Stewart
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:31 - ID#270253)
Up volume Indicator
Yesterday, I refered to Martin Zweig's great indicator using the daily ratio of up volume to down volume in New York. When this ratio hits 90% up volume or better on two days, within three months, it is a major buy signal for the next year.

We had the first one on Sept 9, but yesterday the ratio came in at 89.7%. Close, but no cigar. I will be looking elsewhere for clues.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:32 - ID#35571)
08:30 CPI UP 1.5% IN PAST 12 MONTHS; CORE RATE UP 2.5%.
08:24 GOLD UP $1.60 AN OUNCE, OR 0.5%, TO $299.80.
08:22 DOLLAR OFF 1.22 YEN, OR 1.1%, TO 114.53.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:35 - ID#410194)
The bond market
The spectacular and historical bull market that started its acceleration last March may come to an end soon.

Some interesting comments about it from Hightower reports:

"The bonds got the initial lift expected off the rate cut but if some talk is correct about the Fed concerns, the yield curve is still creating some problems for financial institutions. The amount of loss seen in the Dollar becomes critical to bonds especially with them rising to the 130 level again. Keep in mind that prices beyond 130 might carry significant flight to quality premium. Some of the excessive pricing in bonds has been rationalized because of the US slowing and the possible credit crunch so in some ways we are not as bearish as we were last week but we really doubt the ability to rally when some hedge unwinding might be in the face of bond buying. The question is can bonds continue to trade in, flight to quality premiums for a slower and slower economics, because that is the only way we can see bonds making a big ru higher. If the worlds reaction to the US rate cut is to see other cuts then the attitudes of global consumers should improve,making it hard to hold long bonds. However, changing consumer attitudes may take a while because of the depths reached in countries like Japan and Brazil which gives the bonds a temporary rally window. The back drop of expectations of another rate cut in November also adds some support to prices. A nice strong run today in bonds still makes us interested in buying some March bond puts. We still see 130-15 as resistance. If the Fed cut because of more US hedge fund problems in the closet then upside in bonds might be squashed quickly so beware of foreign liquidation on the rally.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:36 - ID#354133)
--- LGB ---
The fact is that a certain salesman repeatedly baited, insulted, denigrated, and arrogantly belittled other posters & their views on this site - to the point that some folks are intimidated from posting on Kitco for fear of his barbed and forked tongue. Why? To garner more customers? To feed his anemic ego? Because his cronies encourage him to do so? I am curious to know. Other posters have also done their share of "flaming", for whatever their reasons. Those who give so little respect to others are deserving of the same treatment.

As for unbiased information, I appreciate the insider details from salesclerks or anyone ( Inside information should NOT be confused with EXPERTISE, there is a difference ) . Most folks, however, do not appreciate continuous, thinly veiled advertising plugs by company salesclerks looking for business. There are numerous metals dealers and experts here who refrain from soliciting for business at Kitco.

When one readily brags that he is getting lots of business from the words he propagated here, then that is patently SALESMANSHIP. There is no such animal as an unbiased salesman. Salesmen exist to make money for the company that gives them their salary from commissions. And one of the methods of getting more customers is to come off as sounding like an expert - especially in a customer rich environment. Let the buyer beware.

I measure my words carefully here. I have backed off my past information campaign on the forum because of legal threats against Kitco by a large company. Censorship is alive and well in the U.S.A and Canada.

Maybe folks CAN change and will stick to unbiased presentation of facts without using sales techniques/tactics, and by bashing others.

We watch, listen, learn, and hope - together.


We shall see...

Gold up on the open - Dec contract $301.7, up $2.50

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:46 - ID#258427)
Hey Bart...Kitco
Any chance of getting a frames update of spot...been 30 minutes and COMEX is now open....Futures getting 'bout spot update pls


(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:47 - ID#35571)
Battle of the year
Big short position money is desperately trying to get silver and silver equities down this morning. They had planned a real bull killer of a move, stocked up on puts, and then the Fed lowered rates.

Options expire today.

The dollar has moved against them and the yen is up big time.

It will be interesting to see who wins.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:52 - ID#287410)
@ Tolerant 1
Happy Birthday, Kevan!
from me and the lady ;- )

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:57 - ID#341297)
Gollum @ Look harder--There's more than one ratt'ler!
Love the "lamb's blood" thing!'re too much...nothing is scarier than a rat'ler... except two or three rat'lers...I've killed one on the back porch! that's scary

Can't figure out if the Orient Express left without me..oh another coming coming along soooon

GO "news" hounds!! Best dang place to read the latest news!!!!!

Just a thought... Chicken man...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 08:57 - ID#288186)
Mike S; Wow, man...Me thinks you're on a roll with your analyseeees. It sure
makes since to me that everyone is wringing their hands on deflation
while the real "behind the scene" snake is an inflationary environment,
with bond prices about to sink, and gold about to move upwards. Taking
your analysis along with APH's, I could see gold testing 290 support
before it's big move upwards. Thanks, Fox-man

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:06 - ID#35571)
@Chicken man
You may not see this kind of move in the Yen, the Dollar, and other again currencies in your lifetime. There are some really BIG BIG BIG things going on out there in the dark. Wait till the Yen hits the peak and then ride it down waving your cowboy hat in the air.

If Doctor Strangelove didn't write this script I don't know who did.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:07 - ID#386245)
You won't believe what happened...
...on the way to the basketball game tonight.

The car 3 ahead of us collided head on with a car coming the other direction. I immediately called for two ambulances and police on '000'.The missus and daughter ran up to help with the seriously injured. I then ran up to help, but not much I could do. Not very good with blood and guts. SO, I directed traffic for 15 minutes ( about 500 odd cars ) around the accident until the police arrived. You know, stop one way and let the other way go, without getting run over yourself. Don't know if any were killed.

What has this got to do with the POG?? I'm not quite sure, but it helps put EVERYTHING into perspective. Four hours later and I'm still trying to get the adrenaline out of my system. You vets will know the feeling. Certainly gives me something to think about.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:09 - ID#33184)
$/yen: rumours of CB intervention causes huge reversal

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:11 - ID#344239)

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:15 - ID#401460)
Gold Intervention

They just took Gold down $2.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:16 - ID#284255)
Mike Stewart
The second chart is a up/down volume ratio chart.

I'm bullish till it rolls over.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:19 - ID#35571)
Where did I put my lamb's blood?
Once upon a time there was a certain brokerage firm that had a London based metals trading division. Over the years they made a lot of money for the firm by leasing precious metals, selling them and investing in higher interest rate instruements.

They even greedily played the short position end of the markets making even more money as the precious metal sales drove prices down.

Recently a great amount of enthusiasm was generated in the metals after the Fed lowered rates by a quarter percent.

The clever traders reversed their bearish rumors and ballyhooed prices as much as they could. Eventually enthusiasm waned, and the traders prepared a massive short attack.

They didn't expect any more cuts untill November.

Their firm had run into some difficulties and announced many would be laid off, but the London guys felt safe. After all, they had proven themselves as brilliant money making stars.

Then...the Fed unexpectedly lowered rates again, with options expiry only a day away!

So now it's a matter of throwing every penny into the short side, and hoping the other big money guys don't smell the sounds of distress.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:20 - ID#35571)
Just GOT to get the price down before the market opens
Otherwise the stocks will open gap up and were dead for sure...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:20 - ID#376288)
POG Accuracy and Kudos to Nick
First off: thanks for stopping Nick. too many "don't want to get involved" types out there.

I check three or four different sites for gold quotes and I often get very different numbers. Can anyone recommend a site they feel is very accurate.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:21 - ID#229207)
Gollum: You can bet the whole financial community
was up all night looking for evidence of the motive for the sudden rate drop and the search goes into overdrive today. We'll know when someone finds it. If, as I suspect, it gets leaked on purpose, the news will come out after close of markets this evening. Just a guess.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:21 - ID#401460)

They have to knock Gold down or the CRB will pop through the roof, all commodities were up over night.

Question, when the US markets are closed, what currency is really used to value the commodiies. Ihave noticed that the commodities are up in Asia and down in America.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:25 - ID#344326)
From Ole 49'r over on Silicon Investor....
"Remember folks,
Japan is already obligated to the BIS standards.
The IMF is NOT a bastard offshoot of the BIS!
IMF/WB is America's competitive response to the BIS.

The two banking models are sworn enemies.

Tis part and parcel of why Japan has been so cool about the Yen Carry trade, and the double dipping they've participated
i.e., collecting the contango in as the bonds they held in lieu of US currency rallied so damn sharply,
and now with all those cheap bonds they purchased being worth so much more than they ever dreamed, after we skinned'em good the last time they bot our bonds like it was going outta style in the mid 80's.

The BIS is pulling Japan's wagon around the money flow circuit.

Japan hasn't pissed and moaned to the IMF, nor the World Bank, asking for a hand out or a hand up. Why should they?
With the BIS in their corner, they've participated in a glorious plot to bring the US "thunk up and sponsored/primary financed IMF/WB" organization to it's wobbly knees.

It was only a matter of time. And the scheme has worked gloriously.
And folks wonder why Alan is nervous and cutting rates like it's going outta style? He's been had!

I live here in America, sure.

I benefit from her largess and her standard of living, sure.

Do I think I'm entitled to all over my global village neighbors?

Why have I been so abundantly blessed?

Do I support our meddling arrogance?

So, rh,
new Bretton Woods?
Not a frigging chance...
esp since the old one still "woks,"
and you know what they say in the Army:
If it ain't broke...
don't "fix it."

Japan ain't broke...a looooooong way from it.
The Japanese culture is about as frugal on the human level
as the reputedly tightfisted Svisse!

Long live the EU
Come home you worthless pieces of paper.
About time we eat our own "fruits" of our competitive destructive policies.

God Help Us in this great land!!!"

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:27 - ID#344326)
And this from ANOTHER.....the battle is heating up,no?
ANOTHER ( 10/15/98; 22:06:54MDT - Msg ID:602 )
Mr. Kosares, The new day we begin from a dark long night. The Greenspan, he has seen the end of his dollar as king! See now, how the assets are removed from the back of this
weak beast. It was planned for this time, from years that have passed, how these last days will show a new direction. Your Federal Reserve does now see this new war as a battle
fought while in retreat! Indeed, this retreat will become evident as rates that rise over a dollar that does fall! Gold? You have seen the small sales from small countries? I have waited, with patients, for large sales as some say would surely come. From the time of the Belgium deal, this year early, gold is offered no more. A US dollar price below $280 held the BIS as the bank with no teeth! A one tooth cat they are not, as this bank does mate with the great tiger of the orient. The last meeting in Hong Kong did
change that world. Both now have the large hunger for gold and consume it as I write. In Europe, my friends the Swiss, they speak of selling yet buy with both hands and both feet!
This new day for gold, it be right indeed!----------- ---------------------  the world does float upon
the ocean of dreams, when the wind of our mind blows full with a truth redeemed Another

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:28 - ID#119358)
@GOllum......careful with that blood of the lamb.............
the gov't vampires may whiff the wind........sorry blood-sucking bitches.

muchos kudos a usted por su are blessed with deep insight, no doubt.

Now! Hark! Alas!!! You Wretched Government Asses!!! I am Studio of Sulphur......Draw that limp tool! I Stand Squarely in your Bloddy Way!!!!!!!! AYyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! ( slash! )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:28 - ID#71231)
See this URL for derivatives exposure in Japan:

If they are at $13 trillion, and US exposure is significantly higher then imagine what size worldwide derivatives exposure is.

Note that the vast majority of the exposure is in interest rate swaps and spreads. Same currency interest rate swaps are normally hedges against fed tightening and easing and provide no protection against large spread increases - quite the countrary.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:30 - ID#376288)
Took a look at my one of my "easy-listening" morning news sources .

Today's poll asks if this was a dead cat pounce or the return of the bull. Over 65% so far are indicating dead cat. Figure the demographics of those responding and it looks like some of the better educated but NOT financial experts are getting bearish.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:31 - ID#344326)
"THEY" are letting all the stops out to lower the POG!!
What volitility! Could anyone still believe that the POG is NOT manipulated? It's a losing battle though.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:32 - ID#35571)
DOW +23
Market starts out up, but not strongly.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:36 - ID#386245)
Thankyou for your thoughtful post ( 17:06 ) . Contributors like you are what make Kitco the fantastic place it is. I will need a clear head to digest. More later.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:38 - ID#401460)

Spot Gold - Kitco sometimes
Document Empty
Chart on left was working until $2 drop hit

Dec. Gold


(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:39 - ID#35571)
Bonds don't look so good
Gee, the rate cut's been eaten all up already.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:42 - ID#33184)
Aussie cricket at its best !! 599-4; Taylor 334 n.o. ='s Bradman's record

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:42 - ID#215235)
The Fed must be in there selling gold before the market begins. Dow, down, down, the price goes. This may be a good thing for those of us who want to add to our mining shares positions before the Fed can no longer stand in front of this train. All aboard.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:49 - ID#35571)
Selling yes, but it's not the Fed, my good man.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:50 - ID#376288)

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:51 - ID#26467)
FWIW Bought OEX 520 Put expiry today.
We'll see

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:52 - ID#368244)
In And Out
Soon all those that are in one day and out the next, will be out. Take heart, in another 20 years you will have another chance.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 09:52 - ID#234182)
Catching up on some old kitco posts .....regarding OU vs UT...who won? We don't get much news like that; was it another golden moment for the Sooners/ I wonder where Jack Mildren is these days?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:02 - ID#348286)
@Truly Impressive Manipulation
You know, yesterday when interest rates were cut late in the day, I thought to myself that while everyone expects Gold to soar, it would not happen. I was sure that with the rate cuts, the Powers would also insure that the POG will not move. Supplies would be increases to staunch any rally. The POG MUST NOT not rise, in the name of global stability.
Well, guess what, it's exactly what happened !

Stay away from Comex, IMHO the physical is the only thing to accumulate at these artificial dips in these controlled markets..........

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:05 - ID#411259)
..... Death of a Salesclerk .....

Gunny -

Actually most people here do not realize that they can contact me at> regarding market concerns and outlook. That many lurkers do contact me, and many end up buying metals from me is incidental to the work I do here. For nearly a year, I kept to myself who I worked for. Numerous posters asked publicly where they could buy gold. I never responded.

Perhaps you missed the post from a week or so ago about integrity. This poster said he had contacted me by e-mail to shop for gold. I suggested that he buy from Bart, as I have suggested to several people who have contacted me. In this way I have supported this site with cash in Bart's coffers. Still others, having found the lowest price in the country when they called me, decide to buy their gold from me. These folks contact me, not the other way around. Additionally, I lobbied my company for months to become a sponsor of this site. This also means money in Bart's pocket. How have you contributed to this forum, other than mysterious and shady comments which lack any real semblance of verisimilitude? Your bias is plain to see, as is the axe that you are grinding.

Your words regarding the intimidation of other posters have a hollow ring. The only folks I have serious disagreements with here have shown that they need no others to come to their defense and, in fact, began the verbal attacke themselves. This is called self defence, not intimidation. It would seem that it is you who are trying to intimidate with your shady campaign. Some folks will insist that all their woes are at the hands of others. Others tend to take responsibility for their own actions and decisions

You yesterday called my own integrity into question, using the word "lie" several times. Since you cannot substantiate any perceived untruth, as indeed none exists, your own words would seem to fall into the category of baiting, insulting, denigrating, and arrogantly belittling. Your agenda is clear, your words are still very muddy though. Most of the time I have zero idea what your are talking about. If you cannot act in an honest and forthright manner, perhaps you could just keep your empty words to yourself.

Or. keep it up, practice makes perfect.


Any more racist Vietnamese "jokes", complete with stylized and affected accents, which plainly show the true measure of the man who makes these "jokes"? If any occur to you, feel free to keep them to yourself. Your private racial feelings have no place here.

OH, and you can always contact me at if you want to buy gold for a lower price than anywhere else in the country, yes?

This is also a golf forum, not a gun forum. Let us know when you have anything of worth to say concerning the markets, no?


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:09 - ID#368244)
Pog is like a battered wife, after many years of abuse, one morning she ouitely awakens and slits her husbands throat.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:10 - ID#119358)
The sooners were slaughtered in big D. NoCoach Blake, a "gift" to us from Barry Switzer ( who wanted Blake outta' his Cowboy organization ) , ran his poorly-prepared boys straight into the finely-honed gore of the Longhorns. It was the worst.,,,pitiful.

As to Jack Mildren.........he comes by my office about every two months. Two of his ol' oil pardners are down the hall. He and his family are very well ( BTW, his son became quite a quarterback for Casady School ) . Jack was Lt. Gov. for one term....he will be Gov. whenever he decides to run. He is a most excellent man.

Speakin'o'da'office...must go to pump oil.......salud!!!!!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:11 - ID#35571)
The biggest since October '87

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:11 - ID#288186)
I dream....I dream of the day when I can step up to the #1 tee box, pull out
my trusty driver, reach into my golf bag, and pull out my favorite
golf ball.......made of solid gold! GO GOLF! GOLD!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:11 - ID#411259)

Yep, that is my e-mail. Make sure you keep it handy.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:16 - ID#252391)
XAU at unch
Actually up .11 - this selling that comes into the market right at the open is getting a little to perdictable.

Oh no!! the president is about to speak - Dow to rally for sure!!

Close is critical to me today - if the price of gold can rally to its highs - maybe not get over 303 basis Dec but close above 302.30 - I think we've got confimration the hedge fund lease deal is breaking down.

Money has to go into gold stocks after the NY lunch if we haven't broken down.

Looking for a positive gold close.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:20 - ID#28472)
fairdinkum! taylor 334
did not think the old slug had it in him !
go aussie! go gold! ..

John Disney
(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:25 - ID#24135)
10 minutes before closing ..
for Nick ..
is when I get active .. reversed back
out of 90 % of the stuff I added yesterday
when I saw gold come off .. cost me
fees..Kept e-dagga I bought and some
JCI - gold. Shoulda gone to the movies.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:25 - ID#333126)
hmmm... interesting crosspost

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:27 - ID#119358)
@wert.O.....coincidence?....I say Not!.......fine minds.......blah blah...
today's paper....


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:34 - ID#411259)
..... Gunny .....

You have posted publicly that you work for the US Government. You have also expressed enormous contempt for the government you work for. I certainly hope this contempt does not spill over into the workplace. I assume you work during the day, as most of us do. Since you frequently post in the daytime, as the time stamps show, I hope your contempt for our government does not cause you to spend our tax money by accessing this site using government time, equipment, and phone lines. I believe that personal use of the Internet is forbidden by the government you hold in such low regard.

If you are spending our tax money to carry on your shady campaign, I do know indeedy who is lacking in integrity.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:35 - ID#26467)
OEX 520 Puts
COrrection don't get filled ,put writers didn't catch up with
the market yet.Had to turn to the futures DEC contracts.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:36 - ID#401460)
GreetingThe Prez

I think I would wear rubber gloves when shaking hands with Clinton.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:41 - ID#288186)
Cyclist; Regarding OEX. I haven't traded that contract. What is it? TIA

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:42 - ID#333126)
do all the financial writers not know how to divide?
or does the idea of 12 zeroes cause their brains to swell too much to calculate properly?

this must be the 5th article i've read that misquotes what the "100 trillion" figure by the Japanese prime minister means in local currency
( btw, 100 trillion is more than US$ 1 trillion and definitely more than A$1.5trillion, not the measly $133 billion they quote )

forgotten where i've seen the others ... but if i notice any more, i'll post them here.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:43 - ID#35571)
Take no prisoners

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:48 - ID#401460)
Watch the Dow GO!


Clinton speaks and the Dow runs. The Big Lie!
continues. The Guy is really scary....3rd term, head of the UN, or CEO of the New World Order, what do you think?


(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:51 - ID#257312)
Sheller Shoots, He Scores!

DJIA just hit 8400.

Mike Stewart
(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:58 - ID#270253)
I like your charts. Thanks.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 10:58 - ID#288186)
HighRise; I seriously think Clinton's cards will come tumbling down some
day...It may not happen till after he has left office, but I'm
sure with all my heart it will. Same with Hillary. They have done
so many illegal deeds, that one day it will catch up with them.
( I, of course, assume you weren't serious about WJC ) I just thought
I'd use the opportunity to state something we already know...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:07 - ID#401460)
Former Fed Member Says:

Question was, "Rumor was that there is a large hedge fund out there ready to fail, is that true?"

"Yes my friend and as your viewers know, there are 3000 hedge funds around the world and some are going to fail"
Preston Martin former Fed member
"This is similar to 87 86 & 85 Fed action, more cuts on the way."


Steve in FL
(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:10 - ID#213335)
On the lighter side...Did you hear why Chelsea Clinton doesn't have any brothers or sisters?
( Don't Look if you don't want to know!! )

Monica Swallowed Them All!!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:14 - ID#26467)
fox man
The symbol is oew,there is puts written for October 520.I just bought
some for 2 3/8.The index comprising 100 stocks it is like a sp500
contract but it is made up of more senior companies.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:16 - ID#245136)
Studio Thanks
I've booked marked the OK'ian thanks again ..actually new Steve Owens and Granny a little beter than Jack ( both PLM?Delta"s ) ....ah the o'days golden they were.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:18 - ID#356379)
Whoever does the ANOTHER stuff cracks me up! This has got to be the biggest put-on since Perot saying anything. I supect there are several contributors to the ANOTHER charade, and these guys must laugh themselves to death every time they throw ANOTHER bone to the goldbugs. What a great diversion as we wait endlessly for gold to get back off the floor after years of being ignored.

Just for a little variety, I hope the ANOTHER writing cartel addresses the issue of the weak silver market. If Buffett has one fourth of the supply locked up in London, and our friends in India are beginning their holiday silver buying spree period, why hasn't silver moved up dramatically? We need ANOTHER opinion, IMO.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:19 - ID#284255)
Will Y2K Lead to a Global Flight to Quality?

Very good article.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:27 - ID#401460)

WJC has been wired with the powerful from the begining - his draft deferment given him by a republican Rockefeller. So when I hear talk of there being a position ready for him when he leaves office I pay attention.

I really am convinced now that I see the events of the last month, that the powers to be, and it is bipartisan, seem to be intent on keeping him in office, as the Fed's rate cut yesterday and it's coordination with other political events have reinforced. International political leaders are standing by him also as evidenced by the UN coordinated effort at this time after doing nothing for months.

I have been convinced several times that this guy can't survive this one; but, like the everready battery rabbit, he keeps going. He is the man, for sure. And, we as investors might as well accept that fact. I personally think he is the worst thing since Hitler to come on the political scene. And if, God help us, he wins back control of the House of Representatives we are in bid trouble.

He is the type that won't hesitate to ask the American people for a third term after he has created an emergency situation like a War or a Depression.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:27 - ID#252391)
Rather discouraging
With Bill Murphy saying the Japanese and Chinese are buying gold and that the FED and other CB are bearly containing their desire to accumulate, and with hedge funds and other institutions about to move away from the gold carry, you'd think XAU might hold its head over 75. But no its a stock market rally to the moon.

Backing an outsider in gold. Can the XAU turn around after lunch - bets have to be worse than even. Silver down 6 cents and gold back to its favorite 296.85 spot resting place. Maybe that's what the Chinese and Japaese are paying.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:28 - ID#350179)
Did it all by his lonesome, he did...
Greenspan Ordered Funds Rate Cut

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ordered Thursday's surprise cut in the U.S. federal funds rate after consulting with the Fed's policymaking committee, but the group took no formal vote, a Fed spokeswoman said Friday.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:31 - ID#253153)
A new twist
Jennifer Flower was asked if she had sexual relationships with Bill Clinton ? She replied, close but no cigar.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:33 - ID#333126)
hanging out on #daytraders on IRC is sure educational
these guys tell you in advance ( well a few seconds/minutes anyway ) of a major shift in sentiment.

hmmm.... and they just said a quick pullback... sure enough, on bloomberg...

Mike Stewart
(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:36 - ID#270253)
Bookmark this one!
Here is a little gem for all my friends at Kitco. Don Hays, of Wheat First Union, does a daily commentary that is available for free. He is the best market forecaster that I have ever heard. I can't remember the last time that he was way off base. This guy is in my small "Hall of Fame" group. Enough said. Note: He was a bear in July, but not since September.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:39 - ID#350179)
And you thought multiple posts at Kitco were bad...
Clumsy e-trader hits market,4,27626,00.html?
Electronic trading may be cheap, but leaning on the keyboard can be costly. A mystery plunge in the value of French 10-year bond futures on July 23 was triggered by a bank trader at Salomon Brothers in London who accidentally and repeatedly hit the "Instant Sell" button, investigators said yesterday.

A wave of 145 separate sell orders sent the price diving on electronic screens.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:39 - ID#284255)
Written in Blood

If half of the things Michael Sullivan is saying are true, the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal starts to look like a children's sandbox creation.

Thanks .
Do you follow advancers/decliners/unchanged for the Canadian gold stocks?
Do you if there's any data on this?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:40 - ID#284255)
How to be a Web Whore Just Like Me

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:42 - ID#254321)
Mini Rally?
All: Just plunked down a little cash for Fid Select Defense. Liquid funds now 10% gold mutual funds, 10% defense, 80% cash. A bit late on hearing about the passing of the defense spending bill -- still needs to go to Senate, I think.

It will be interesting just how long this current market rally lasts, given the news that the FED is likely to reduce rates some more.

Could it be that AG is trying to inflate us out of a possible depression? I think he knows that if he waits too long, the 1929 scenario would be a sure thing. I wonder how he intends to stimulate the average american to borrow and spend even more -- not much left to squeeze, IMHO. Allow margin on 401k's and 403b's? More equity/education loans on retirement accounts?

Wonder if the new IMF funds are to be used exclusivly on Brazil? Wonder how long it will take the markets to realize that the underlying problems in Brazil and Mexico are unresolved. One month? Two months?

Wonder why the videos of Monica and WJC in the WhiteHouse will not be released? Too controversial? Bill and Monica caught in the act? Perhaps after the elections.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:42 - ID#280214)
MM@23:13 last night - add one more berg to our pile of doom
A text on Global Warming over ten years ago stated the one of the first effects would be increasingly powerful hurricanes {which we've had in both Pacific with "Zeb" & Atlantic} and the breakup of the large Antarctic ice shelves. I think a 30 mile x 92 mile "berg" may be a significant contribution to the last item. The author emphasized that with such a breakup - sea level could rise several feet not in geologic time but in several years.

So in addition to all the economic woes, and Y2K, we had a sea level rise of a few feet in the next decade or so. How many people live 10 feet of sea level - within striking range of ever higher storm surges in an ever higher sea level?

When is this flight to safety going to occur? Will it be rice or Gold?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:42 - ID#371229)
(@Highrise, Clinton as CEO of new world order- for sure...

What if the initial cobal programers knew they were going to create havoc at the
millenium? What if the Kennedy clan and their offspring were to be the represent-
tives of "them"? Is it too far fetched to believe this was anticipated? Assasinations
and scandals made "them" seek other politicos. "They" have their man in Clinton.
CEO of new world order for sure!
In reading Ann Coulters book, "High Crimes and Misdemeanors - the case against
Bill Clinton" one is struck by the degree to which he appears to have the willing
cooperation of the FBI and IRS. The FBI handed over 900 files on his political
enemies. The IRS has investegitaed Paula Jones, Billy Dale, and others apparently
at least to Clinton's advantage. When Nixon even attempted such acts he was
steadfastly refused and even ended up with getting himself audited! Such co-
operation indicates very friendly forces strategically in places where they help
codify power and abuse.
There was a linked post in this forum a while back alluding to the accumulation of
newly built "concentration camps/ detention facilities" at military sites across the
country to be used after the Y2K event. Yesterday there was a post stating that
Canada has told its federal police force all leave form 12/27/99 to 3/15/2000 would
be denied as a "kind-of" martial law plan was anticipated to deal with Y2K
disruptions. Who knows the percentage of actual possibilities of national power
grid shut-downs? More to the point will it matter.
If the "them" of new world order want the excuse of martial law to implement their
plans I think we will power grid interuptiuons world wide at that time- Y2K bug
provoked or no.
The fright of Clinton is he will be there as sitting president when the oppurtunity to
impose martial law occurs. Who doubts that he will not resign when he need only
obsucate, pull legal delay excuses, wag the dog etc. to be where he has wanted to
all along- the man in charge when martial law is declared.
INHO- the manipulative pressures on gold are ultimately "them" who are
accumulating cheap gold. Eventual One World Rule will emerge from the chaos
with one central bank, and a world currency based on gold held largely by them.
A question I must ask of those among you wiser in these matters than myself is-
when the central banks and other major players in the sales of gold do sell- who
buys? "Them"?

What if the initial cobal programers knew they were going to create havoc at the
millenium? What if the Kennedy clan and their offspring were to be the represent-
tives of "them"? Is it too far fetched to believe this was anticipated? Assasinations
and scandals made "them" seek other politicos. "They" have their man in Clinton.
CEO of new world order for sure!
In reading Ann Coulters book, "High Crimes and Misdemeanors - the case against
Bill Clinton" one is struck by the degree to which he appears to have the willing
cooperation of the FBI and IRS. The FBI handed over 900 files on his political
enemies. The IRS has investegitaed Paula Jones, Billy Dale, and others apparently
at least to Clinton's advantage. When Nixon even attempted such acts he was
steadfastly refused and even ended up with getting himself audited! Such co-
operation indicates very friendly forces strategically in places where they help
codify power and abuse.
There was a linked post in this forum a while back alluding to the accumulation of
newly built "concentration camps/ detention facilities" at military sites across the
country to be used after the Y2K event. Yesterday there was a post stating that
Canada has told its federal police force all leave form 12/27/99 to 3/15/2000 would
be denied as a "kind-of" martial law plan was anticipated to deal with Y2K
disruptions. Who knows the percentage of actual possibilities of national power
grid shut-downs? More to the point will it matter.
If the "them" of new world order want the excuse of martial law to implement their
plans I think we will power grid interuptiuons world wide at that time- Y2K bug
provoked or no.
The fright of Clinton is he will be there as sitting president when the oppurtunity to
impose martial law occurs. Who doubts that he will not resign when he need only
obsucate, pull legal delay excuses, wag the dog etc. to be where he has wanted to
all along- the man in charge when martial law is declared.
INHO- the manipulative pressures on gold are ultimately "them" who are
accumulating cheap gold. Eventual One World Rule will emerge from the chaos
with one central bank, and a world currency based on gold held largely by them.
A question I must ask of those among you wiser in these matters than myself is-
when the central banks and other major players in the sales of gold do sell- who
buys? "Them"?

What if the initial cobal programers knew they were going to create havoc at the
millenium? What if the Kennedy clan and their offspring were to be the represent-
tives of "them"? Is it too far fetched to believe this was anticipated? Assasinations
and scandals made "them" seek other politicos. "They" have their man in Clinton.
CEO of new world order for sure!
In reading Ann Coulters book, "High Crimes and Misdemeanors - the case against
Bill Clinton" one is struck by the degree to which he appears to have the willing
cooperation of the FBI and IRS. The FBI handed over 900 files on his political
enemies. The IRS has investegitaed Paula Jones, Billy Dale, and others apparently
at least to Clinton's advantage. When Nixon even attempted such acts he was
steadfastly refused and even ended up with getting himself audited! Such co-
operation indicates very friendly forces strategically in places where they help
codify power and abuse.
There was a linked post in this forum a while back alluding to the accumulation of
newly built "concentration camps/ detention facilities" at military sites across the
country to be used after the Y2K event. Yesterday there was a post stating that
Canada has told its federal police force all leave form 12/27/99 to 3/15/2000 would
be denied as a "kind-of" martial law plan was anticipated to deal with Y2K
disruptions. Who knows the percentage of actual possibilities of national power
grid shut-downs? More to the point will it matter.
If the "them" of new world order want the excuse of martial law to implement their
plans I think we will power grid interuptiuons world wide at that time- Y2K bug
provoked or no.
The fright of Clinton is he will be there as sitting president when the oppurtunity to
impose martial law occurs. Who doubts that he will not resign when he need only
obsucate, pull legal delay excuses, wag the dog etc. to be where he has wanted to
all along- the man in charge when martial law is declared.
INHO- the manipulative pressures on gold are ultimately "them" who are
accumulating cheap gold. Eventual One World Rule will emerge from the chaos
with one central bank, and a world currency based on gold held largely by them.
A question I must ask of those among you wiser in these matters than myself is-
when the central banks and other major players in the sales of gold do sell- who
buys? "Them"?

What if the initial cobal programers knew they were going to create havoc at the
millenium? What if the Kennedy clan and their offspring were to be the represent-
tives of "them"? Is it too far fetched to believe this was anticipated? Assasinations
and scandals made "them" seek other politicos. "They" have their man in Clinton.
CEO of new world order for sure!
In reading Ann Coulters book, "High Crimes and Misdemeanors - the case against
Bill Clinton" one is struck by the degree to which he appears to have the willing
cooperation of the FBI and IRS. The FBI handed over 900 files on his political
enemies. The IRS has investegitaed Paula Jones, Billy Dale, and others apparently
at least to Clinton's advantage. When Nixon even attempted such acts he was
steadfastly refused and even ended up with getting himself audited! Such co-
operation indicates very friendly forces strategically in places where they help
codify power and abuse.
There was a linked post in this forum a while back alluding to the accumulation of
newly built "concentration camps/ detention facilities" at military sites across the
country to be used after the Y2K event. Yesterday there was a post stating that
Canada has told its federal police force all leave form 12/27/99 to 3/15/2000 would
be denied as a "kind-of" martial law plan was anticipated to deal with Y2K
disruptions. Who knows the percentage of actual possibilities of national power
grid shut-downs? More to the point will it matter.
If the "them" of new world order want the excuse of martial law to implement their
plans I think we will power grid interuptiuons world wide at that time- Y2K bug
provoked or no.
The fright of Clinton is he will be there as sitting president when the oppurtunity to
impose martial law occurs. Who doubts that he will not resign when he need only
obsucate, pull legal delay excuses, wag the dog etc. to be where he has wanted to
all along- the man in charge when martial law is declared.
INHO- the manipulative pressures on gold are ultimately "them" who are
accumulating cheap gold. Eventual One World Rule will emerge from the chaos
with one central bank, and a world currency based on gold held largely by them.
A question I must ask of those among you wiser in these matters than myself is-
when the central banks and other major players in the sales of gold do sell- who
buys? "Them"?

What if the initial cobal programers knew they were going to create havoc at the
millenium? What if the Kennedy clan and their offspring were to be the represent-
tives of "them"? Is it too far fetched to believe this was anticipated? Assasinations
and scandals made "them" seek other politicos. "They" have their man in Clinton.
CEO of new world order for sure!
In reading Ann Coulters book, "High Crimes and Misdemeanors - the case against
Bill Clinton" one is struck by the degree to which he appears to have the willing
cooperation of the FBI and IRS. The FBI handed over 900 files on his political
enemies. The IRS has investegitaed Paula Jones, Billy Dale, and others apparently
at least to Clinton's advantage. When Nixon even attempted such acts he was
steadfastly refused and even ended up with getting himself audited! Such co-
operation indicates very friendly forces strategically in places where they help
codify power and abuse.
There was a linked post in this forum a while back alluding to the accumulation of
newly built "concentration camps/ detention facilities" at military sites across the
country to be used after the Y2K event. Yesterday there was a post stating that
Canada has told its federal police force all leave form 12/27/99 to 3/15/2000 would
be denied as a "kind-of" martial law plan was anticipated to deal with Y2K
disruptions. Who knows the percentage of actual possibilities of national power
grid shut-downs? More to the point will it matter.
If the "them" of new world order want the excuse of martial law to implement their
plans I think we will power grid interuptiuons world wide at that time- Y2K bug
provoked or no.
The fright of Clinton is he will be there as sitting president when the oppurtunity to
impose martial law occurs. Who doubts that he will not resign when he need only
obsucate, pull legal delay excuses, wag the dog etc. to be where he has wanted to
all along- the man in charge when martial law is declared.
INHO- the manipulative pressures on gold are ultimately "them" who are
accumulating cheap gold. Eventual One World Rule will emerge from the chaos
with one central bank, and a world currency based on gold held largely by them.
A question I must ask of those among you wiser in these matters than myself is-
when the central banks and other major players in the sales of gold do sell- who
buys? "Them"?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:44 - ID#35571)
Isn't Bill Murphy the same guy who said that Warren Buffett was buying silver...just before the silver prices crashed? And the guy who said LTCM had a 400 ton short position in gold and later said the short position had been "forgiven" them by a central bank? I think more recently he said something about a 12 million ounce Silver sale on Reuters but no one has been able to find that story.

Or am I thinking of another Bill Murphy?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:49 - ID#423159)
spz really fighting - as the price drops constant buy programs are thrown at the

pro sellers who normally sell the 1069-70 area.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:49 - ID#371229)
(Please excuse the errors of my first post to this site. A rookie's way...

but I will do better.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 11:55 - ID#333126)
30-year bond yield back below 5% (re: Chicken Man)
I might actually put my fingers to the touchpad and call that broker for those long bond puts now.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:00 - ID#31868)
Namaste' to all of YOU...
TEARS...I cannot even begin...THANK EACH AND EVERYONE OF you...

This BIG DOG is going now out on the Island that is Long...

All of you are in my THOUGHTs...

Tears this day...

Bless each and every one of you.................

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:01 - ID#252391)
To Gollum
You have the right Bill Murphy, associate of Venerosso ( sp? ) . He started a baord on the SI called "Dutch Bank Gold sales". They were among the first I read that started to expose the gold lease program and its size. Bill is saying that the hedge funds that are short gold are really caught and that the FED is trying to hold off the Japanese and Chinese from agrressiviely bidding up the price of gold to avert a crisis. His source is a "conservative old timer" in HK who three months ago brought up the notion that rumored Japanese buying was part of the future establishment of a IMF yen and gold based alternative currency to the dollar.

Bill has also expoused along with Venerosso the atributes of junior gold stock Golden Star Resources which has fallen from the heavans. Much of what Bill say's seems to make sense except on days like this when you think gold should go up and it doesn't respond - then of course its all a conspiracy, anyway.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:10 - ID#229207)
U.S. Industrial Output Weakest In 7-1/2 Years
There's that dern "R" word again. So by pumping up the money supply and dropping rates ( in such a hurry that no formal vote among Fed members was taken ) AG maybe may keep this a nice little stagflation recession rather than a deflationary depression. But either way, it ain't good for the stock market. Guess this hasn't sunk in yet.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:12 - ID#71231)
Jims - Fed actions
The yield spread increase that comes with the first move of the investment community into recessionary expectations is what killed LTCM, many other hedge funds, and the banks. Their hedge strategy backfired, and some were facing total eradication of their reserves - meaning insolvency. That discount window borrowing is ocurring at only 3 times the previous rate is a sign that bankers are not yet completely aware of their situation. Obviously, the traders and their bosses may not want to admit it, since the reaction of their boards is going to be to can them and blacklist them from the industry. All US financial institutions are substantially short the Yen.

A big source of low cost funds for well connected hedgies has also been gold shorting of central bank lent physical reserves. The large position is supported by the Fed and has some assistance from Europe. They sell only in emergency situations. Otherwise, they lease. They have a high risk tolerance in this gold lending, because it helps support the dollar during big expansions of the money supply. Knowing that maintaining the dollar as the reserve currency of choice is critical to maintaining the living standards of the US, leasing gold and maintaining stock prices are the only ways to prevent a deterioration of the dollar in the face of trade deficits and huge money supply expansions. They will dump as much as they can, until Europeans and the Japanese can't just stand there looking at the bargain POG and start buying out the US sales.

The futures trading desks at the investment banks live off of the time premium on futures and options. They are short both calls and puts. If volatility rises against them ( especially in puts ) after they make a big sale of options, they normally buy futures and individual stocks to adjust the levels at expiration to maximize profit and minimize loss. The reason they are loosing their shirts and are begging their clearing banks for more money ( these in turn are standing at the discount window trough waiting for their emergency feeding ) is that they are over exposed on shorting puts and ran out of funds to buy futures, and the contracts have gone against them. Since the exposure of the investment banks is roughly like this ( referring to the S&P ) : on a 10% drop - breakeven. On a 15% drop - a disappearance of all the year's profits. On a 20% drop, reserves are threatened, on better than 25% drop they are insolvent - at a 30% drop, their lenders are insolvent - since the net contract obligations are greater than all the capital of all financial institutions in the US.

In short: if market melts down, lines will be forming at the bank near you, and 74 style lines at the pump to buy $3 gas.

The fed is trying to keep Foreign money in the market. But I just don't see how they can convince them at this time.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:16 - ID#194311)
Ok...good buddies.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:18 - ID#254321)
Global Warming?
Squirrel: I'm not sure about this. The Vostok ice core world temperature plots indicate that we are in an unusually warm period where the baseline is much cooler. On a short-term basis, rising sunspot activity causes warming of the oceans with a time lag of a year or so. Sunspot activity has been rising steadily over a longer term than the 22 year cycle. One might expect this cycle to taper off fairly soon from historical data -- perhaps in 40 - 100 years. The fossil fuel consumption also tends to raise the absorption of solar radiation, and could be contributing to the current melting of ice packs.

Another matter is whether the East Coast of the US is actually dropping, or whether the ocean levels are rising. Satellite coverage of worldwide earth ocean levels/temperatures is only fairly recent, and there may not be enough reliable data yet to say whether the earth's oceans are really rising/warming, and the duration of any cycles/trends identified.

I do agree that a major breakoff of an ice pack could raise the oceans fairly abruptly, in proportion to the amount of ice that breaks off. All you need to do is monitor how much ice is heading to warmer climes, and calculate how much the oceans must rise about a year later when the ice melts. Plenty of warning for an alert Web-watcher.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:21 - ID#229207)
Time to rip their faces off yet?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:22 - ID#252391)
VERY INSTRUCTIVE READ your last post - will save it for further reading.

XAU has recently taken out the days highs.

Gotta watch my trades

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:24 - ID#412172)
AU/AG prices move
With a weakening dollar it seems prices in our favorite metals should increase. Sharp move up in Dec gold and silver just now and no reaction from XAU stocks. I am betting it is shellshock rather than who is leading who....I am back in silver stocks this morning, gold to follow. They may keep the lid on for a bit, but the pot is simmering, and this time I don't think ( hope ) that mine is the goose that will be cooked.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:26 - ID#26467)
FWIW gold looking better with Gold /plat spread expanding.
Major markets slipping. Closed out all calls ( banks,sox ) ,
Staying with my OEX 520 put options till expired today

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:28 - ID#254321)
Dollar/gold, Dollar/yen Carry
All: What happened to the POG? I thought it was supposed to start moving once the US dollar dumping started.
This reminds me of the cartoon where the hero is in a tree out on a limb and he starts sawing off the limb. When he finishes cutting, the tree falls, leaving him in mid-air on the much smaller limb.
Eventually gold will have to rise, IMHO. This balancing act cannot last forever, and each drop in interest rates will create more bullish pressure on the POG. Would be interesting if Germany starts to lower rates too. Dropping German rates, fears of unstable Russia, and problems with the EURO might very well push gold and the US dollar up as well.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:28 - ID#412172)
Not to imply that I got cooked last move, did good on PAASF, in and out, now back at the trough. Got the oil move but missed the best ones, sold my OEX puts late Wed afternoon. Batting near 1k lately, will get the hang of this yet.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:29 - ID#35571)
Once the ice is floating, it makes no difference to ocean levels whether it melts or not.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:34 - ID#365216)
ITEOTWAWKIAIFF; Theme song for Y2K
And the number one song for 1999 is the old REM hit: It's the End of
the world as we know it; and I feel fine.

Got God, gold, guns, grub, generators, grass-roots, and graciousness?
The new "G-7" will rule the world if the worst happens. One thing is
for sure: God does all things for a reason. After blasphemies like
the play "Corpus Christi", NEA "art" which sacriledges our Lord, etc.
who could blame Him for anything He did. Let us pray for His mercy
in whatever happens.

That is all.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:34 - ID#263119)
Oro, where do you get the highly interesting information regarding the exposure of investment banks to derivatives from? I thought ( probably naively ) that short options are hedged by dynamic trading strategies. This should limit the losses.

This is the THEORY. In fact the price of a derivative instrument is derived by replication of the payoff with a dynamic hedging strategy. However I was always suspiciuos of the feasibility of that, since the theory makes too many unrealistic assumptions ( no bid ask spread, no transaction costs, adjustmnet of the hedge at every instant in time ) .

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:36 - ID#194311)
Hmmm...looks like all the "old boys" did quite well yesterday...
Friday October 16, 12:19 pm Eastern Time

Fed seen adding $3.3 bln directly to TTL accounts

NEW YORK, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve added $3.3 billion directly into its Treasury tax and
loan accounts, a broker said on Friday.

Economists said the Fed probably did not undertake the operation to add liquidity to the system.

``It would be surprising to use such an esoteric route to add liquidity,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist
at Daiwa Securities America Inc.. ``It's probably just the case that the Treasury somehow ended up with large
balances at its Fed accounts.''

``Usually the Fed would take spillover from the TTL accounts,'' said Kevin Flanagan, money market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. ``I
don't know why they would do that today unless they felt they wanted to keep Treasury reserves at the Fed banks down.''

Who's watching the watchers?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:37 - ID#350179)
Precisely - the only time it could make a difference is when the Ice was formerly land-locked and then slid/fell into the ocean. Once ocean-bound ( solid or liquid ) the displacement remains constant. You ever had ice cubes melt in your drink and have the drink spill over?

Now we return to our regularly scheduled program: go golf!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:41 - ID#404312)

borrowed some money yesterday to buy silver options this morning. A little iffy early on.

12:38 dec gold 301.3 silver 4.95

last chance to buy silver under 5.00, but you'd better hurry. Silver could be at 5.30 before the day is out. Chart showing a much larger vertical move is in store shortly. At least 5.10 before close.

Gold looked iffy too but held nicely. Nowhere to go but up if opening highs are taken out. 310 today?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:42 - ID#71231)
Note - mortgage rates etc.
Looks like fed move may have backfired - Mortgages are back up 50 bp from recent lows. The rise in treasuries will kill the mortgage bankers ( who hold big treasury shorts ) , the drop in treasuries will kill the carry trade bankers. A further drop in commodities will kill all commodity exporters and cause default on their loans - which will kill the money center banks. A rise in commodities will raise inflation and kill the $ and the treasuries, which will accelerate the foreign fund repatriation, and kill the carry traders.

There is no possible positive outcome.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:43 - ID#371229)
(POG is not going to blow the top off its pressure cooker until we see some very

panicked fear flight to quality/safety buying, which is right around the corner of DOW 8500 ,

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:44 - ID#33184)
Has anyone heard the same rumour about a U.S institution having problems and is going to announce chapter 11? And another bank having to got to the FED for 2 bln last night. Had heard a number of US banks had gone to the NYK FED to discuss the problems and that pushed the G man to act.

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:45 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ Timing--
Wondering what and when to make the "move"...makes your tummy hurt a the name of the game today is "liar's polker"...think I'll pull the trigger on the close...PM markets smelling like hedge funds covering shorts to raise call....Fat lady humming the tune "cash is king"...think she will be singing loud enough for all to hear before the day is over...

Just a thought... Chicken man..

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:48 - ID#254321)
Floating ice
Gollum: Yes -- you are right. My error was almost as bad as when I said the dark side of the moon never faced the sun. What one must do is calculate the volume of the ice pack as it leaves the pole in question to estimate how much the ocean level must have risen. I guess that since the largest floating ice pack imaginable ( to me anyway ) would not elevate the ocean level perceptibly, one would need to keep a cumulative, running tally of how much ice mass had fallen into the oceans.

Any comments about the markets? I think Mike Stewart is right that we are haveing a general equities rally. The only question is how long before the next ping -- ping III in Sharefin's terminology. One month? Two months?

Gold equities should be going up IMHO, also.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:49 - ID#354133)
See what I mean
Re-post from a few days ago...

Sales-man noun. 1. a man employed as a salesclerk

Sales-man-ship noun. the ability, skill, or technique of selling

Skills and techniques of salesmanship and that of a salesman may vary but the end results are the same - to make money for the company and the salesman. In some cases, techniques may include:

- bait and switch
- stretching the "truth"
- stretching the legal limit of unscrupulous sales techniques ( i.e., making verbal guarantees versus written ones )
- out and out lying ( verbally, of course, to avoid legal action in the courts )
- misrepresenting company literature
- minimizing inherent dangers with risky
- enlisting paid or "happy/satisfied" customers
- inflating the amount of expertise of the company/salesclerk
- inflating the "track record" of ones self and company

Company's sales policies and techniques do not reflect what is best for a potential customer. There is no specific written screening criteria, only the direction to get as much money out of a customer as it can. Money so that the company can make a profit, pay its shareholders, pay its overhead costs, get the salesmen their commissions, and all the very basic business principles. Oh, and by the way, your job depends on how much you sale.

Good sales techniques does not include pointing out problems with the company or the drawbacks to certain products which the salesmen is paid to peddle.
- Minimizing the impact of dissatisfied customers.
- Discrediting those same customers who have received less than what was "advertised" or verbally guaranteed by the salesclerk.

Liars figure and figures lie. Go figure. Braggadocio of one's self and of one's company is evidence of unabashed salesmanship. Anyone who claims to be an expert while at the same time regurgitating the company script and industry propaganda on what to tell potential "clients" in order to hawk a product, is a hypocrite. A self proclaimed prostitute.

I may not always know a good expert in any particular field but I am learning. I have, however, learned how to recognize self serving, braggadocios, self promoting, greedy salesmen.

"Expertise" is not defined by simply repeating insider information.


You certainly have earned the title R-Clinton-clone*. Psychological warfare misinformation spinning salesman tactics. When offended, you resort to calling someone a "racist" ( or worse ) . ( BTW, please repost that joke because, as I said after I had posted it, it was sent to me by an oriental friend who found it amusing. Guess he's a racist, too. I also recall a few other "racist" Kitco-ites seemed to have found it amusing. )

And now every Kitco-ite who complains about certain odd aspects of one's country is unpatriotic? Only a lying coward would say something like that.

I'm also curious to know what I have said to make you think I have made "threats"?

When it comes to gun discussions that occasionally crop up here, well, guilty as charged. ( BTW, Did you ever get one of those High Power Pistols that you discussed in a POST HERE AT KITCO? )

And, finally I would gladly spend more money on a product in order to deal with a reputable, quality, service oriented company.

Your hypocrisy obvious to all who know. Just ask some of your EX-customers. Amusing that they are no longer your customers. Why is that?

Sorry folks, for wasting bandwidth. Let the buyer beware...

Go Golf!

Jan Plat 346.50
Dec Gold 301.50
Dec Silv 494.50

So, R-Clinton-clone*, what's your propaganda market call for the day, week, month, remainder of '98 and next year?

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to persuade or dissuade anyone from dealing with any specific individual or company.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:49 - ID#194311)
cage rattler....apt title for rattlesnake markets
something's coming down the pipeline....and boy does it reek.

It ain't the goods train.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:52 - ID#71231)
bondsman 2 sources
Notes I made during the reading of two articles on derivatives exposure in Barrons. I don't have them in front of me, but they were referred to often.

The hedge strategies - my father is a mathematician who started teaching Black-Scholes etc. and former students at various banks. They still assume a continuous pricing ( see the 1987 portfolio insurance mess ) and a normal distribution around a trend. My father and I have been discussing the imploications in a gambler's ruin scenario. He was sure somebody had something better - but it looks like they don't.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:52 - ID#389387)
I am currently copyrighting NTEOTWAWKI and all it's derivative forms. Please send a single 1/10th oz. golden eagle for each use. TIA.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:53 - ID#350179)
I have a re-entry point for early mid next week at XAU 65 to 67. How does that play off yesterday's & today's developments in your analysis?
I'm also playing a hunch that Sunday or Monday some news item will press the issue.

Thanks ( even if you don't have time to respond )

Happy Birthday Kevan - enjoy ( keep an eye on your tolerance levels ; )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:53 - ID#257312)
Bankers Trust Down Sharply

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:57 - ID#194311)
Merill's risk whiz (gambler) gets fired
Friday October 16, 12:46 am Eastern Time

Merrill Lynch Exec Ousted

AP Business Writer

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The global financial market claimed its first high-level victim at a major U.S. investment
bank as the executive who managed Merrill Lynch & Co. ( NYSE:MER - news ) 's global risks was ousted.

Meanwhile, Salomon Smith Barney ( NYSE:CXB - news ) became the second major brokerage to trim payrolls as the brokerage arm of the newly formed
Citigroup Inc. cut 100 positions in its bond department.

Merrill said Thursday that Daniel T. Napoli, who was in charge of the firm's risk management for 11 years, requested a leave of absence and will be
given a new management position when he returns. Analysts said he apparently was forced out.

``Clearly the firm had some risk management slip ups,'' said Guy Moszkowski, an analyst at Salomon. ``Napoli did a very good job for a many years.
But the timing makes it quite clear that this had something to do with risk management that did not match up to the rest of the market.''

(Fri Oct 16 1998 12:59 - ID#229207)
Fire in the hole
UBS dumps Ellington holdings,MKP struggles-sources

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:00 - ID#254321)
Please keep the comments comning!
Oro: It seems you have considerable insight on why AG is reducing rates, even though it seems to be weakening the Gold/dollar carry, and the Dollar/yen carry. Perhaps the dollar amount of these trades pales in comparison to the short term/long term interest rate trades.

I don't fully understand your comments, but it does seem that AG is frightened about something, since he normally moves very slowly in changing interest rates. And -- he did not even wait one month this time. Either he is frightened about global depression in a general way, or he is trying to save some large financial firms that are in deep water. Whatever the reason, his ability to manipulate the US dollar through the much thinner gold market is weakening, IMHO.

Looks like the cushion of stability of the US dollar is getting smaller.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:01 - ID#389387)
Something better as in a better derivatives pricing model?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:06 - ID#237299)
Cage Rattler: I wouldn't be surprised if it is Bank of America
When they said they only lost 300 million in that hedge deal something smelled fishy to me.

It's like the guy who spends the night out drinking and gambling ( and womanizing ) in Las Vegas. When he goes back to the room the next morning, ( where his faithful wife has been sleeping ) he plays down the reality. "Oh honey, I only lost $20... relax!"

I love payback but in this case my money is in that institution.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:08 - ID#344326)
And the award for the best moniker goes to.....NTEOTWAWKI But why the N?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:10 - ID#404312)

dec gold 301.7
sil 495.5
this should be it. the dike has broken

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:12 - ID#341297)
EJ @ whoops their goes another rubber tree ..
I'm betting there will be more before the day is over...

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:12 - ID#389387)

Mankind seems to have had many of these. This is just the next one.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:13 - ID#254321)
Normal distribution, steady state pricing model
Oro: Hard to believe that even the gurus at LTCM made the mistake of this assumption. Perhaps they tried to compensate by continuously recalculating the parameters in the Black-Scholes model.

Problem is -- this does not work if the markets convulse discontinuously. I am not a mathematician like your father -- just physics. My guess is that the LTCM gurus should have put in a fudge factor for catastrophic events of some kind -- would not have taken much, since the US markets have been behaving quite sedately recently as market catastrophes go. Would have reduced their profits.

Looks like the golden gurus themselve bit off more than they could chew, riskwise. I'll bet that many of the other hedge fund operations are less sophisticated than those of LTCM. Could be that a number of fincancial institutions followed LTCM's lead. After all, they had Black-Scholes Nobel prizewinners on their board of directors.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:14 - ID#333126)
@chicken man (re: timing)
uhuh. agreed. i think i shall go make that call in an hour or so.

do you know anywhere i can get live option quotes online? only has end of the day data...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:16 - ID#344326)
Even better! We've seen a few on Kitco. Unfortunately, buy the law of statistics, one of these days it will be right.

Got Golf?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:21 - ID#254321)
EJ: And just how much of LTCM does UBS still hold? Does Bank of America hold a piece of LTCM too? Would be interesting fireworks if a Swiss bank folded. I guess that would be like the star of Hedge funds folding. It was an Austrian bank that triggered the bank run of the early 30's -- owned by the Rothschilds, even.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:21 - ID#35571)
Maybe they should have

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:24 - ID#35571)
Maybe we're chasing the wrong metals

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:25 - ID#389387)
current market indicators
equities slight up trend
t-bills nosedive
treasury nosedive
gold slightly contrarian

Everyone going to cash? d-marks? suisse? euro?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:27 - ID#194311)
UBS to fold?
They've got murdered on the rocket science...too many Oxford grads I believe....laying off all kinds of staff....I know of one poor chap involved in russian loans at least....but, but surely they're TOO BIG TO FAIL....or TOO BIG TO SAVE....who's gonna save the really big banks....ain't gonna be you and me, they are too big...think about it.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:27 - ID#35571)
Well, maybe not
12:27 [SI=X8] MIDDAY: SILVER SOARS, UP 4.7%.

Somebody go tell Hecla that copper and silver are up.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:28 - ID#71231)
All my insight is quickly self taught
All is derived using the clues available to all. With some additional insight into the mathematical assumptions inherent in these pricing models.

There is one thing that is missing in these conversations on derivatives - is it possible to hedge against these "one time" events? If so, what profit margins would remain? Most probable answer: not possible to put in a profitable continuous hedging strategy against the "one time event". The only possibility is to keep eyes open and unravel the trades if your "gut/kishkes" tell you things are not right. But you don't get a Noble Prize for "kishkes" you get it for the math.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:34 - ID#288466)
I'm a happy camper........

Picked up a 1776 George III Guinea ( Great Britain - abt 1/4 oz ) at lunchtime today for 100 Bucks. Hmmmmm....could have been owned by one of the founders of the US.

Love the old stuff when I can get it dirt cheap - Anyone know the book value of this in Fine-Very Fine condition?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:35 - ID#35571)
Meanwhile back in Japan

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:35 - ID#197289)
While melting ice contributes to rising ocean levels the problem of global warming is inherent in the oceans themselves. As water is heated it expands. Because of the mammoth size of the oceans even a 1 degree rise in temperature expands the ocean enormously. Areas such as New York and Malibou would be threatened by waters levels. Areas in India would be under water. Once started, expanding oceans would be a calmity not reversible in our lifetimes. Not a pleasant thought. Would rather think about gold.

Nice posts re AG and interest rates.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:36 - ID#344326)
Excerp from NYT article....
But the timing of Thursday's rate cut was intriguing on several other counts. First was the fact that the Fed decided to announce its move at 3:06 P.M., relatively late in the afternoon, while the stock market was open but the Treasury bond futures markets were closed. This is interesting because the futures markets -- the world's most liquid -- are where Treasury bond traders execute a large percentage of their trades. With this market closed, bond traders could not react to the Fed move as well as they could have if the rate cut had been announced at 2:15 P.M., as is typical.

Indeed, some traders speculated that the timing of the Fed's move appeared calculated to get a rise out of the stock market. Why? Because it was done late in the day before today's expiration of October equity options. And, if the Fed had moved while the bond futures market was still open, it ran the risk of a negative reaction from bond traders. This could have dampened stock traders' enthusiasm a bit.

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:37 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ No--wish I did!
I'll call ny broker and let you know...later..

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:40 - ID#35571)
Everything else is going up

PH in LA
(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:43 - ID#225408)
Farfel, RJ & Company: Forging plowshares!
Even though some of the dust seems to have settled, as a sometime participant in the strident discord perpetrated on K-2 between RJ, Farfel and others, and being as Farfel has been readmitted here at K-1, I would like to offer a few suggestions along with my battle-forged analysis of the conflict in the hopes that it can be extinguished or at least lessened to the benefit of all.

As an opening gesture of good faith by participants, let me first call for a moratorium on any and all further name-calling here on K-1. This would include all references to "spots", "stains" "shorts" "ideologues of all kinds", "demagogues" ""nazis" etc. Let us each resolve to call each other by his own proper handle. Doing otherwise offers little in a forum of rational ( or irrational ) debate and is an impediment to discourse. Sometimes the forms of etiquette offer a beginning. This is one of those times!


As I have said on other occasions, much of what is taken for error in prediction is caused by improper interpretation of timeframes. For example, many here are committed to waiting while "we watch this gold market together" as the predictions of Another unfold daily. Yet others have long since lost patience and pronounced him a fake, or worse. Both sides are interpretting the same writings. The same facts. The difference of opinion lies in their concepts of time.

Similar threads run through the arguments between RJ and Farfel. When the one speaks of impending short squeezes the other assumes that waiting a week or two will prove the wisdom or folly of the prediction. Yet nowhere in the prediction was the time span of a week ( or any timeframe at all ) ever mentioned. We all saw this clearly when LGB was recently issued a direct challenge and assigned the task of proving his own claim that "2 or 3 days" had been specifically mentioned in the writings of Farfel. His silence in the face of that challenge effectively proved that he was unable to document his assertion. Farfel never said when, the "when" was supplied in the form of interpretation.

Farfel himself has never denied the ideological bias in his thinking. This actually places much of his writing in the realm of literature. He writes with a message. Rules of logic and accountability are relaxed. Time becomes relevant: Relevant to whatever point Farfel is trying to make at that moment. This does not make him wrong. But readers must take into account the author's bias along with his intention and understand his expression more as emotionally uplifting entertainment and encouragement than as cold science. Many here do and for this reason Farfel has a considerable following on this site.

But it is when his writing is interpretted as science by a market-oriented realist that misunderstanding is generated. RJ confines his forays into literature to the subject of baby birds, Shakespeare imitations, poetry and other wordplay. But not the metals markets. There he is the consumate scientist. A professional. His perspective at Monex gives him insights into such esoterica as definite entry points, buy and sell stops placed above and below the markets, etc. Hard cold facts that make his perspective unique and irrefuteable. He works with these specific details every day. And as a scientist, he assumes that others who dare make predictions do so from the same perspective he does. He would never think of making a prediction solely for the effect it would have on readers unless facts warranted it. And he ( almost without thinking about it ) scorns anyone who would.

RJ is neither bull nor bear by ideology. His ideology is reality. He reads the markets with professional advantage and places his bets where he feels they will do the most good. Farfel has neither interest in nor advantage of professional contact with the market ( other than his own ) and sees little need of it. He is convinced that one day soon his somewhat intuitive knowledge and broader perspective will prove right. He knows; but cannot prove. ( ie. to the satisfaction of RJ, that is. ) Each has his point. Farfel "knew" that gold was going up and announced it before RJ did. But as RJ points out, even long before it actually did. Yet now they are both on the same side of the fence and agree that the gold bull is here. Who was right? Why, both, of course. Just at different times.

Thus we have a difference of perspective that is easily fanned into conflict by two personalities each with the strength of spirit and resolve to take the fight to the other without quarter. Yet in the final analysis, it is an unequal fight of apples with oranges. Neither can ever be right in terms of the other. And yet neither is wrong when viewed in his own terms.

Both have pushed their own case up to and beyond the bounds of rationality. Yet neither has been able convert the other to his own way of thinking. Each tried. Each made good points, each in his own way. But each also knows in his heart that the other is hopeless. Yet throughout, there is precious little substance to this ideological fight.

At such a moment, it becomes pointless for either party to continue the good fight. Each must find the maturity to finally acknowledge this reality; and resolve to go his own way. Most outside observers would agree that such a point has been reached. For the good of all, let us each recognize these differences, shake hands in cyberspace and move forward. This is never easy. But sometimes it becomes necessary. This is one of those times.

Good luck to both: It was a good show!

Comments are invited from all sides:

[Disclaimer: Private replies will be held in strict confidence.]

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:44 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ quotes
Nov puts ( expire next Fri )

127----8/64 about $125 plus com.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:47 - ID#71231)
Continuous process modeling and threshold phenomena
The obvious answer to the pricing model problem was that it has to provide good continuous numbers and that it give you quick and reliable results MOST OF THE TIME. The discussions of the continuous normal dist. modeling in the lit. shows that it is not a true model because the variance increases with sample size ( e.g. 1982 to 1987 small Var arround trend, Oct 1987 - break from trend almost kills financial system. )

We tried to find models for this kind of behavior and realized that though it is not an impossibility, there are too many issues to overcome: the fact that the variance does not converge, the timing not mathematecally predictable, the fact that once a workable model is found everyone will use it and its underlying indicators will no longer work.

Using threshold models is hard too. Particularly since the only wy to put in a threshold function is from technical analysis or experience, both of which are far from infalible.

Gianni Dioro
(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:51 - ID#384350)
JTF - The Effects of Ice Melting on Water Levels
You probably know this, but all you have to do is fill up a glass with ice, then add water to the brim, and let it sit, and see the results. You see when ice melts it takes up less volume in its liquid form. So
theoretically if the ice caps melt, it may not raise water levels at all.

I suppose if the ice-cap in question was affixed to earth and above the water, then its melting might add to water levels, or possibly less snow on mountaintops that run off into streams, rivers, and then the sea. That could add to sea levels, but I question if focusing on the ice-caps for rising sea levels is the right idea.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:55 - ID#35571)
Just about time
The guys who pushed the prices down before the equities market open are now poised to push them down for the metals market close.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 13:59 - ID#411259)
..... What is your e-mail so I can send my story? .....

You know it
And I know it
Your words have but shallow depth

Stop spending my tax dollars with your untrue campaign.
To quote a poster, "Liars figure and figures lie"

And we know your figure well

When added up, the sum of all you say
Sounds more like OJ or Clinton
Than any person I would listen to.

Perhaps you could enlist the hoards of supporters you have in your smear campaign to read the many thousands of words I have written here, and the Weekly Review I write for my own company, and detail wherein expertise is lacking. The problem with emotionally based outbursts, is that you often destroy your own credibility with the very audience you are addressing. Yours is shot for all time. You seem to have a personal problem with me that is driving your untruths.

My words contained within these pages are available for any soul to see. Your claim of little expertise is therefore laid bare and exposed for the world to see as the petulant whining it is, and will not alter reality. Others would speak of libel and slander, but only those who fear the words of another. I fear nothing you have said, or ever could say. Let's allow folks to truly take their own measure of a man. You have cooperated well in this goal and I thank you.

An old saying goes something like this, "Live you life unashamed of anything anyone may say about you. Even if it appears on the front page of the newspaper, and even if it is untrue." One of the lessons in life you may have skipped over.

When we were children it was never our fault, even when caught standing over the broken vase. As adults we learn to take responsibility in our lives. I do this on a daily basis. Perhaps you too can learn this simple lesson of adulthood.

Grow up, be a man.

Or continue to be a shadow of one

I don't care


(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:03 - ID#35571)
Tired of just sitting around overnight?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:04 - ID#35571)
I am impressed
Amazing how well the latest Kitco upgrade has been working.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:08 - ID#411259)
..... My 13:59 .....

Was addressed to a self professed runner of guns.

Forgot to mention that.


Bully Beef
(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:10 - ID#259282)
PH in LA...Wuddaya call tham? Ying and Yang. RJ and Farfel.
They are so alike yet so diferunt.Oil and vinegar.Dionyseus and Apollo.These guys are archetypes fighting it out to eternity. It is impossible for them to solve their differences until they meet. Oh well only a thought. I'm done work for a month. Been wasting taxpayers hard earned money.Time for a break. Building my workshop.Please gold ...go up and pay for my workshop. My wife will adore me.Instead of rubbing my nose in an apparent bad investment. Go Golf!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:14 - ID#225236)
Love thy commander in chief!!! OR ELSE!!!
Army colonel gets laughed at after being presented with "Certificate of Appreciation" signed by Clinton. Returns the certificate to Clinton "in four pieces."

Many other such stories!

As Chairman Mao once said: "Political power grows out of a barrel of a gun!"

How many guns in the US are pro-Clinton?! Many rummors about a "Spook War" between the Klintonistas and everybody else in the US intelligence circles! How does all that fly with the "New World Order" plans?

Failure to secure firm support of the armed forces in times of trouble ALWAYS leads to a civil war.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:18 - ID#220325)
Ravenfire regarding IRC
Would you please post the URL for IRC. Thanks

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:18 - ID#33184)
Who Is Manipulating the Ruble?
Funny Finagles in the Forward Market

For the second time in a month, the rouble has staged a mysterious recovery that has coincided with the expiry of dollar forward contracts held by Russia's troubled commercial banks.

The rouble strengthened almost 20 per cent over the past two days from Rbs15.8 to Rbs13 against the dollar. "It is mind-bogglingly blatant that on forward settlement day the rate goes up and the day after it plummets," said Arnab Das, emerging markets analyst at J P Morgan investment bank.

Last month the rouble strengthened from Rbs20 to the US dollar to Rbs7.5 before plummeting to Rbs15 a day after the forward contracts settlement. Peter Boone at stockbroker Brunswick Warburg said: "We have not seen such extreme examples of manipulation anywhere else in the world."

Many Russian banks have made huge losses on forward contracts signed before the August 17 devaluation of the rouble and the government's effective default on its GKO government debt. The contracts were taken out by foreign banks as a way of hedging against expected rouble depreciation. Total value of Russian banks' exposure to the contracts is estimated at $10bn.

The central bank denies manipulating the exchange rate, but this is not accepted by foreign bankers. Mr Boone said the artificial volatility of the exchange rate undermined foreign investors' confidence in the central bank.

Under the moratorium the government imposed on repayment of foreign credits, no Russian bank is actually settling its forward contracts. The exchange rate is important, however, because it provides the basis on which the forward contracts could be valued once the moratorium is lifted.

The Financial Times, October 16, 1998

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:19 - ID#208392)
A Challenge
To the gods that control the price of spot gold......
Let's see you stop it at exactly 300 today!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:20 - ID#230216)
Tolerant #1 (!)
AGULP................and ya

On your day...............this anniversary of your 'arrival'...

Their will be MUCH celebration tonight............

MUCH....................... ( the finest from blue agave ) ........... ( aged in fine OAK caskets from the Californias ) .................... ( GULP ) ............ ( oops ) ....................... ( the party has already commenced ) ..................... ( salud! ) .

Namast... crush more ice....... ( clink ) !


go golf?........


(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:22 - ID#333126)
@snowbird (re: IRC)
IRC is not a webpage. it's Internet Relay Chat, which is a method of having many people sharing/discussing real time. primarily used for social chatting, it's been adapted by some daytraders...

check out their website, though. it's at

that'll give you a better primer to IRC than what I could in this space

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:28 - ID#371229)
@Petronius- New World Order plans. Surely there is opposition to the
to the schemata of Clinton's martial law Y2K plans. What would be the role of the regular military if the national guard and UN forces are the vehicle for submission of the masses ( Quelling the riots-allbeit indiscriminantly ) .
I believe it is man named Marceca who was hired by Livingston to work
in White House security department. After the travel office and filegate eruptions he was quietly sent packing to F.E.M.A., which not coincindently will be running the show at 1/01/2000.
Our armed services don't even think about fighting ourselves, or as Pogo said " We have met the enemy and he is us.!"

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:34 - ID#246224)
You are THE man! Dude, it is fast and smooth. We are ever in your debt, er, service. THANK YOU TOOOO MUCH ! ! ! !

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:36 - ID#404124)
Ding! DIng! Ding! Ding! Ding!
And the number for the day IS!


Whoda Thunk It!

Yee Haa!!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:37 - ID#288186)
YEP! Bart, you da man! Thanks again!!
: )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:40 - ID#230216)
new email
MCI internet was bought by Cable and Wireless. I have been ascribed a new address and am passing it to my FRIENDS only. That means you too Spuds ;- )

And I am still having trouble with the 'puta so my replies are erratic and few..............think I need a new mutthaboard.................damned 'putas......

have a good weekend all.............................

away....back to work


or is that bogart??

in the famous words of Rodney King......."can't we all just get along"?...................... ( ho hum ) ...

speaking of people gettin whooped on.......I saw some Aussie footage of a prison rumble...................It looked like a bunch of mates fightin over some brewskis and leeeeetle gold coins.............they were gettin pretty serious..........................I am just speculatin regarding those leeeeeeetle gold coins........


(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:42 - ID#208392)
299.90 - what a bunch of wimps
These gods of gold have no power after all. I p*ss on them and their descendants. Couldn't even get it to 300. Now if you want to see real power...look at these guys selling Greenstone at $2.00 all day when they coulda got at least 2.50. Now thats power!!? Any bets that ABX will out-motor PDG at the end of the day?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:43 - ID#35571)
Fix or pay

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:44 - ID#237299)
Silverbaron: I don't know anything about your coin, but it sounds
like a neat one. Go to:

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:46 - ID#389387)
It is [their] constitutional obligation to have the federal government provide protection from enemies foreign and domestic. No New Wave Order here. Just Old Wave Order. By the way I'm trademarking that also ( OWO )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:47 - ID#237299)
Gollum: I wonder how he thinks the capital will flow out
of their economies if the computers are down- in paper bags?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:53 - ID#410196)
The L.T.C.M. trees.

Comment here leads this reader to conclude that in the matter of LTCM's collapse a great amount of tree studying in going on. Black-Scholes or any other technique relies on a broadly consistent environment. To understand the failure of LTCM, we all might stand back a little and look at the forest. The gentlemen in LTCM were in the ultimate position to understand what the "environment" was going to be, they knew the movers and shakers.

I'd speculate that the ground was shifted under them without warning. We all look at the goings on in the price of gold vs. the dollar and the odd doings in the price of silver are shake our heads. Are we being overly trusting about the even bigger picture? Were the LTCM gurus, too?

If we do get a big reaction from other funds, might it be perhaps not so much from failure of Black-Sholes in a mechanical sense but rather that the old rules of "management", including a timely wink and a nudge regarding policy changes, cannot be trusted any more?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:55 - ID#288466)

Thanks much for the site - a coin just like mine there....looks like I got a real deal!

Go gold!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 14:58 - ID#35571)
It sounded kinda like a veiled threat to me. Sorta like, "If we don't hear you are doing something before Y2K gets here, we are not going to let our investments lay around over there".

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:06 - ID#208392)
"Gold has doubled over night in world markets"
Each morning, as I listen to the alarm clock news, I hear the above refrain in my subconscious. Wishfull thinking?....Yes, perhaps it the greed. On the other hand, perhaps its fear. Our money system is a house of cards and the least tremor could send it all crashing down.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:08 - ID#354133)
And the spin goes on
A true Clintonite you are. Mike McCurry resigned as the President's press secretary. Your lies and deceit would be more welcome there than here. Funny you should mention OJ - must be another one of your role models.

Your customers should take notice of all the time you spend typing Kitco love letters. Your multitude of EX-customers certainly understand what's going on!

And for your next dissertation, please cut and past some of those industry circulars you are SO good at regurgitating. We're STILL waiting...

While you were whining, ranting and raving those shallow empty words of yours, did you notice:

Closing numbers:

Jan Plat 346.70
Dec Gold 301.70
Dec Silv 495.00

Go Golf! And Pallafium!

Oh, what shall Monday bring?

Any questions?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:09 - ID#237299)
Gollum: Yes, I got that part. But of course, some middle minister of
technology in ( name your country ) , will naturally dissemble and proclaim total complience. This- or face loosing his head. They will do exactly what the US government is doing; blow smoke up our a**es.

By the time they find out which industry/country/business fails- will be exactly 24 hours after such information would have been useful.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:10 - ID#71231)
Retearivs - note your underlying assumptions
You are assuming that the insiders knew something, understood the predicament, figured out what would/could happen, made logical contingent decisions ahead of time, etc..

Remember that the sources are CB bureaucrats and post Samuelson economists, it was probably not expected widely and those who knew and had credibility did not want to be blamed for making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Remember that Casey, Inger, Dines, Prechter, Waninsky, Hein etc.. all were talking about this, some as far back as the Mexico crissis. They were all Cassandras, and will be hated for being right.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:13 - ID#35571)
Yes. Promise anything . . . untill it's too late. Kinda like used car salesmen.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:14 - ID#35571)
Tapping fingers on the desk
Waiting for the close of market news releases and stuff.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:14 - ID#228134)
What do you think is up with GRE?

It appears that the bulk of sales

are coming from 2 or 3 houses ( Nesbit/Griffiths )

Why dump at 2 bux? Any clues? Tax loss,

liquidating to cover other positions?

I hope it dries up soon! thx.

Regards Elroy,

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:21 - ID#288186)
FWN; Closing metals comments...worth a read.
New York-Oct. 16-FWN--THE PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX ENDED the session higher here
today in the aftermath of a U.S. interest-rate cut and ensuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, sources

But while all the metals posted gains, contacts also cautioned that none of the metals have made
significant technical breakouts to the upside.

Sources did note that Australian producers are buying back forward gold sales, and the metal is
entering a traditionally strong seasonal demand period ahead of Christmas, along with the wedding
season in India.

About 45 minutes after the gold market closed on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced a 25
basis-point cut in both the target federal funds rate and the discount rate, bringing them to 5% and
4.75%, respectively.

As a result, the U.S. dollar slid from around Y117.50 around the time of the cut to an overnight low
of Y113.57. As of the end of gold trade, the dollar was at Y115.38, down just 0.39 for the day but
down roughly 2 yen from where it was as of Thursday's close in the gold pit.

"While the metals have reacted very positively to the rate cut and the deterioration in the dollar, they
really have not penetrated significant resistance overhead," said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion dealer
with LFG Bullion Services.

"So although this is a nice, considerable move, it is not to be considered a breakout as of yet--but a
move to the tops of their trading ranges," he said.

"Gold has been here before and failed. Silver has been here before and failed. And so has platinum,"
he added.

To move into a bull-market phase, said Kaplan, December gold had to close above $303.70,
December silver above $5.05, January platinum above the $356 area and December palladium above

"At this point in time, we're sitting on pins and needles to see if it happens," said Kaplan.

December gold today settled $2.50 higher at $301.70, while December silver added 5.5 cents to
$4.95. January platinum gained $3.70 to $346.70 and December palladium added $5.95 to $280.95.

While gold was responding to dollar movements after the rate cut, there are other factors at play, as
well, Kaplan explained.

As the U.S. dollar has fallen over the last month or so and the Australian dollar has firmed, the market
is finding support from Australian producers buying back forward sales.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:25 - ID#229207)
Gollum: you and everyone else...
FX IN EUROPE - U.S. rate cut weighs on dollar
LONDON, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - The dollar fell to this week's lows on Friday against mark and yen following the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates on Thursday, and further dollar weakness was likely, analysts said.

``The market is being driven by two contradictory emotions,'' said Ravi Bulchandani, international economist at Morgan Stanley.

``One spin is that the Fed is going to fix the global problems with interest rate cuts, and that is positive for the dollar. The negative spin is that the Fed knows something we don't, and that spin is more likely.''

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:26 - ID#208392)
@Elroy re GRE
I have no idea, but it may have something to do with me buying in on the 6'th. Seriously, GRE is down about 80% from April and one of the larger funds may have been forced to liquidate. Too bad for them, but more for me. ;- )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:26 - ID#389387)
y2k and banks
Banks Will Share Millennium Bug Plans On Internet

LONDON ( Reuters ) - Five financial institutions have agreed to make public their plans for fixing the millennium computer bug. The Global 2000 Coordinating Group said in a statement Friday that JP Morgan, Citibank and Merrill Lynch of the United States, DBS Bank of Singapore and UBS of Switzerland will shortly display detailed assessments of the progress they are making on the Internet. Global 2000, which comprises 180 financial institutions from 37 countries, said it had released an analytical tool to allow institutions worldwide to evaluate their readiness. Reut15:17 10-16-98

yea, sure, you guys can't even manage your core business ( finance ) let alone a massive software remediation effort.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:30 - ID#210235)
Kevan, many happy returns of the day! A toast in your honor at dinner tonight.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:31 - ID#286230)
Good time
Now that K1 has been speeded up--it might be a good time to clean it up.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:33 - ID#246224)
( All IMVHO )
Regardless of what any man may think, no one is in control of the forest, let alone the world at large. We may map. We may dig a bit here or there. We may even proclaim ourselves its owner ( Le Petite Prince ) , but we are ever its subjects when the fires roll over its unwilling boughs. The 'assumptions' are wrong. There is no such thing as 'stability', only periods of relative stability. They believed they were gods with their little formuli. They are wrong. The forest is burning and will burn them to ashes.

( IMVHO ) Mechanisms do not very accurately reflect reality, only our little concepts of little pieces of what we think is real. What would it take to imagine, let alone write, a set of formuli which could describe, let alone predict, the behavior of an entire world economy or its financial blood stream? I laugh thinking of it at all.

All IMVHO .. and thank you for this thought to chew on. A little stringy, but good flavor.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:34 - ID#401460)

They have held down the XAU all day, now that Gold is closed for the day they are moving up.

There day chart show the same selling pattern.

There many other commodities up to day and if they had let Gold run from premarket $302 Gold would have closed at $305 pushing the XAU up dramatically.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:35 - ID#229207)
You mean all those files in the pub upload dir? If so, I agree. I vote that our hero Bart moves anything older than a couple of months to an archive dir.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:36 - ID#401460)

Nemont is now up.


Mad Hatter
(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:38 - ID#284230)
The ant in us
This story is interesting. Perhaps we should stop & ponder for a few
minutes. What are we really looking for in life?

One morning I wasted nearly an hour watching a tiny ant carry a huge
feather across my back terrace. Several times it was confronted by
obstacles in its path and after a momentary pause it would make the
necessary detour. At one point the ant had to negotiate a crack in the
concrete about 10mm wide. After brief contemplation the ant laid the
feather over the crack, walked across it and picked up the feather on
the other side then continued on its way.

I was fascinated by the ingenuity of this ant, one of God's smallest
creatures. It served to reinforce the miracle of creation. Here was a
minute insect, lacking in size yet equipped with a brain to reason,
explore, discover and overcome. But this ant, like the two-legged
co-residents of this planet, also shares human failings.

After some time the ant finally reached its destination - a flower bed
at the end of the terrace and a small hole that was the entrance to its
underground home. And it was here that the ant finally met its match.

How could that large feather possibly fit down that small hole? Of
course it couldn't. So the ant, after all this trouble and exercising
great ingenuity, overcoming problems all along the way, just abandoned
the feather and went home.

The ant had not thought the problem through before it began its epic
journey and in the end the feather was nothing more than a burden.
Isn't life like that! We worry about our family, we worry about money
or the lack of it, we worry about work, about where we live, about all
sorts of things. These are all burdens - the things we pick up along
life's path and lug them around the obstacles and over the crevasses
that life will bring, only to find that at the destination they are
useless and we can't take them with us.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:39 - ID#228134)
KitKat re:GRE
Thx for the reply.Just in the last few minutes or so

it looks like the bids are increasing.I've been trading

GRE for the last few weeks but, however the precipitous

drop from $2.75c to $2.00c kinda caught me off guard. Watching

for an entry point to pick up so more. Best of luck.

Regards Elroy,

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:42 - ID#389387)
Not all the varibles of the forest are as ellusive as they seem. Some can be measured to tell you if it is winter or summer.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:42 - ID#242325)
Probably will not be long before the gold shares move up big time. But for those who need action now look at the oil service stocks. OSX ( oil service index ) up 20% in 2 days. A nice move by anyone's standards. And still down 50% from the peak.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:43 - ID#210235)
@Gee,wasn't it just a year ago
that Camdessus was confident that the Asian crisis wouldn't develop into a recession? Now he's sure Brazil will be just fine. Eases my mind for sure. Wonder what this guy gets paid?

A little background:

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:47 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 16

Gold 784,059 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,287,355 - 72,014 troy ounces
Copper 68,080 + 43 short tons

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:51 - ID#252197)
home is where the heart is
Mad Hatter: Thank you for the wonderful post!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 15:57 - ID#413175)
El Snr Oro

A fine response.

( We, here, are Cassandras, too, El Oro. We are right but this is the financial Cassandra board, we are fated not to be heeded! )

Looking to the future...

It is not possible to read every posting so others may well have made the observation that these two recent cuts and how they were executed are an omen of profound import; it's the only tool they have left now and it's losing its edge. Note that they would not chance having the bond traders dull it further.

It didn't work in Japan and it won't work here. What we can hope for is a graceful decline and that may well be all Mr. Greenspan can now offer us. Liquidity will just be lubrication to prevent "shifts" of tectonic scale as the markets head downwards.

"You may serve the dispair now, garcon. Bring it on slowly, please, and in small helpings."

Gold is /real/ money. Go baby!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:05 - ID#242214)
New task team from the PPT?
I have a theory that the PPT is taking on a new task of market manipulation. That is to subdue the rise of gold by selling gold futures. Somewhat surprised they dropped the ball today and allowed a close above the $300 mark. Probably taking Friday off.

The new task team name is coined: "The Surge Prevention Team ( SPT ) ".

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:06 - ID#246224)
Let them eat bark!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:08 - ID#350179)
Millennium bug Expert Shouts For Action

"Some of these people have gone straight from denial to panic. Some magazines were saying it's all hype and exaggeration. Now they are saying we don't have enough time. We are all doomed."

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:12 - ID#229207)
Oro: I relayed your points to a friend who has some questions
but as a non-Kitco member he can't ask you directly. Maybe I can talk him into joining. We'd get some lively discussion out of him. His comments/questions below.

"All US financial institutions are substantially short the Yen."

How does he ( Oro ) know this? Suppose all US institutions were short the yen. Does he believe that nobody would take an offsetting position as that turned?

I'm not sure what he means by a distribution around a *trend*. The model is not related to trend. The phrase "continuous pricing" is ambiguous. BS is a "continuous time" stochastic model ( the math isn't doable otherwise ) , but other important options pricing models aren't continuous. And whether a given model is in continuous time or not, what does this have to do with 1987?

I'm going to infer that he means that derivatives temporarily didn't track their underlyings which normally would be an arb opportunity. This isn't clear.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:15 - ID#389387)
Sure, let them eat bark. Boil it, then distillate it, and ya got aspirin! Helps the headache when they buy too much Yahoo at 115 when it is only worth 1.15

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:20 - ID#71231)
Thanks for raising it, it has been on my radar screen, I just bought some.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:20 - ID#423159)
dow bull ends week on 45 minute buy programs
wow nice tight day for option expiry

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:30 - ID#268260)
Bought some GRERF myself yesterday and today. Looks like it has bottomed again and ready to move up. This stock could increase 6 to 8 fold when AU spot reaches $350/oz. Can't find any problems with its potential. Now to find more depressed mining shares worthy of accumulation.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:39 - ID#286230)
You might check out William Resources ( WIM -TSE ) . Currently operating and definitely depressed but whether it is worthy of accumulation or ready for burial is the question. Like to hear your views.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 16:49 - ID#252391)
Rather anti-climatic but positive
Gold $299.99, XAU up but not much - we are investing in a true outsider. Look at the oil service stocks - yes - I did - man zooooom. Little CRK up 25%. Missing the forest for looking at this one metal colored tree?

See what news, if any comes in over the weekend, but really without more fuel won't this metal rally burn out.???

Loose Lips
(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:04 - ID#31764)
@SilverBaron re:Jeil's S&P 500 Charts
Silverbaron: The charts shows an upward bump in the S&P 500 actual vs the S & P 500 projected for October 15. My guess is that this was based on the lowering of interest rates and the bump up in the stock market. Question: What does Jeil look at to come up with the projected numbers? Are the projected numbers a better indication of the economy then actual S&P 500 numbers?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:15 - ID#375160)
Option Expiration
For those wondering about the dissapointment in the HUI & XAU in spite of a good move in gold today, I believe that today was option expiration for Oct calls/puts. If you look at HM losing 3/4 to close at 12 9/16 while a PDG gains 11/16 to 15, the most obvious explanation is that of manipulating the stock price to the nearest strike prices ( 12.5 for HM and 15 for PDG ) . The writers ( sellers ) of call/put options tend to manipulate the majors on expiration days so the options expire worthless.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:16 - ID#194311)
Cat's outta the bag...lawsuits from hell...derivatives

Friday October 16, 4:30 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

Attention BankAmerica Corporation Investors: Expanded
Class Action Filed By Abbey, Gardy & Squitieri, LLP

NEW YORK-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Oct. 16, 1998--Notice is hereby given by Abbey, Gardy & Squitieri,
LLP that a class action lawsuit was filed against BankAmerica Corporation ( NYSE: BAC - news ) and
certain of its officers and directors for violations of the federal securities laws.

If you purchased or otherwise acquired BankAmerica Corporation securities between August 28, 1998 and
October 13, 1998 -- or if you acquired BankAmerica common stock pursuant to the merger between
NationsBank Corporation and BankAmerica Corporation -- you may, not later than December 14, 1998,
move the court to serve as a lead plaintiff of the class action seeking to recover damages on behalf of all
similarly-situated BankAmerica Corporation investors.

In order to serve as a lead plaintiff, you must meet certain legal requirements. If you wish to discuss this
action, or have any questions concerning this notice or your rights or interests, please CONTACT:

Mark C. Gardy, Esq.

Nancy Kaboolian, Esq.

James S. Notis, Esq.

Abbey, Gardy & Squitieri, LLP

212 East 39th Street

New York, New York 10016

TELEPHONE: ( 800 ) 889-3701 or ( 212 ) 889-3700

FAX: ( 212 ) 684-5191

Hmmm...perhaps we could get a class action going against CB manipulation of gold spot via futures activites?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:21 - ID#288295)
Loose Lips

As I understand it, Jeil's work is based only on fitting a polynomial curve to the underlying trend of the market, and then optimising sinusoidal cycles which are superimposed on the trend curve to fit the past price history. A continuation of the trend and cycles fit is used to make up the daily & weekly projections. The only fundamental information which is built-in to such a method is the price history.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:23 - ID#287193)
Franco Nevada and Inco deal
I wonder if this news has been posted earlier today??
Is this good news for FN ?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:24 - ID#224363)
Are we just getting started
Anybody with a more educated opinion then mine, please respond to the following:

If we start with the premise that hedge funds, investment banks, etc have used leased gold sales to finance their other activities, then we are left with the result that they must either continue to pay lease interest or close out their position and return the gold by buying it from someone.

Dabchick and Rhody have demonstrated quite nicely that the current low lease rates indicate

1 ) Ample supply from the CBs for leasing activities.
2 ) Alternatively, the rates remain low because not as much gold is being leased.
3 ) Alternatively, the central banks need to keep rates low to avoid a refinancing cascade amongst the funds with borrowed gold and financial problems.

At this point, I'm guessing that the central banks are wondering why in the hell they ever loaned the gold out at such low rates. But now they are stuck between a rock and a very hard place. They can't just call the loans because that will hurt the funds and the funds will turn around and do one of two things.

1 ) The funds will start to buy gold to close out their positions which will drive the price up quite quickly. Although we ( the kitco crowd ) would like that, all of the other funds and banks with gold loans would be very unhappy. Remember this is a club and will remain a club until one of the players says 'I don't want to play with you anymore'

2 ) Alternatively if the loans are called, the funds will default on their loans anyway because they can't free up the capital to re-purchase the gold because of other trading losses.

As long as the POG stays range bound between $290 and $305, the funds will probably be able to continue to pay their interest expense and slowly buy back the gold needed to repay their loans. This will cause the POG to slowly rise. Possibly over a 6-8 month period ending at about $350-$375.

I think we are in for a very interesting time. It should be quite amazing to see how well the various governments are able to manage this crisis. One wrong move and the whole house of cards will collapse. Does anyone know what freedom the Fed is allowed to utilize US-held gold ?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:25 - ID#287193)
Re: Franco Nevada

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:26 - ID#375160)
Further Evidence on Stock Price Manipulation
If you want a perfect example of stock price manipulation on option expiration days look at FCX. FCX somehow managed to gain 1 7/16 to close at 12 1/2 today on no real news. Why, just look at the the open interest on Oct calls/puts. It's all centered at 12 1/2. The option writers bid up FCX so all the options expire worthless, amazing.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:33 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.07. The 233 day moving average is 28.71

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:34 - ID#287193)
@Servhard (Re: Franco Nevada) ID#287193:
Very long term outlook and quite possibly brilliant if:

1 ) Voisey bay actually flys ( methinks it will after the natives and the government get what they want out of it )

2 ) The price of nickel rebounds once we get out of this commodities recession that we seem to be in.

What a wacky group those guys at FN are using their gold/silver royalties to buy a big chunk of voisey bay !!!

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:36 - ID#428218)
Prometheus (@Gee,wasn't it just a year ago).......

Camdessus tends to get himself lost "in the translation", if you get my point.....

Keeps on "hopping" from site to site........

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:38 - ID#28021)
Bridge news

NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold up $2.5;hit 1-wk high

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:38 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .255. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:41 - ID#237299)
PMF: I think the scenario is best called:
"level of acceptable loss". In the gold carry trade is is probably
conceded by all parties now that there are going to be losses. It's simply a matter of will a few loose big, or everybody loose a little.

The central banks, I believe, are trying to broker this thing so that the losses are spread around the circle.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:43 - ID#288295)

Someone noted recently that a possible exit strategy in some cases is ( would be ) settlement in currency without repayment of the gold -this method may have been used for liabilities of LTCM.

IMHO,the ONLY real way out of this mess for all the parties would be to flood the market with so much gold in a short time period, that the price of gold takes a flip off the high dive...but they would have to do it WITHOUT adding onto existing lease positions. When the market was suitably shocked by the price drop, then eveyone woud cover. Will they try it? Who knows?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:43 - ID#43349)
History is made

Loose Lips
(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:46 - ID#31764)
Jeil's projection has been amazingly accurate so far. But since its only past price histories used to create the projection, then it's not inevitable that the S&P 500 bottoms out around 600 in early March. If there is enough investment in the market to sustain a higher price over several days, weeks or months, the projected plunge may not take place at all. At least not to the depths and in the time frame Jeil is projecting.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:51 - ID#26793)
Two hedge funds forced to dump securities in order to meet margin calls.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:51 - ID#287193)
@ PMF-Thanx ..maybe I buy a few more...

Is there not a certain royalty play involved with the N voisey bay shares?

I talked to Pierre Lassonde about the Barrick story in April and he gave straight forward answers on all the twists.

The gang at the 'Nevadas' are no fools.

Another angle on the interest story:

Friday October 16, 4:47 pm Eastern Time

FOCUS-Greenspan ordered surprise

cut in U.S. rates

( Adds background, details, combines takes )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:51 - ID#237299)
Silverbaron: How could they possibly flood the market *without*
increasing leased positions? Only by direct sales. And the amount necessary to accomplish the unwinding of the leases would double the amount of the gold the central banks would loose, don't you think?

Someone has to pay to repatriate the gold and I doubt that the central banks will be to keen on buying back their own gold at higher prices than they lent it for.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:54 - ID#288295)
Loose Lips

Yep, you're right...the underlying trend of the market can change due to current forces ( fundamentals, interest rates, etc. ) which would skew the curve.

I've been watching this for a while, and it seems that fairly good predictability may only go out a week or two...which is about as good as you could expect on any prediction method, I think.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 17:59 - ID#26793)
@Chickenman: sorry to hear the bad news.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:03 - ID#288295)
Obsidian would be a big gamble for them to do as I suggested - a coordinated effort from many central banks to spread the risk around.

Increasing the supply of gold by a factor of two or three times ( short-term ) might have the desired effect of knocking the price for a loop. The Rothschilds have historically been very good at this sort of sting operation.....

The only source of gold which does not have this particular liability problem is the IMF gold hoard. Do you think if the central bankers are at risk of losing a large part of 8000 tonnes of gold presently leased, that they will not sacrifice the IMF?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:03 - ID#410194)
Bon anniversaire!

Live long and stay healthy!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:03 - ID#25490)
In comex we triste : In comex we tryst: In comas we trust: In commas we trick
Excellent detective work! Love ya man.

The Market Makers' manipulation of stocks to allow options to expire worthless is just one way they ensure their clients lose money. There are many other ways to blow up a client: sell a lemon; front-load; churn...

In the unfortunate event that the client holds a deep in the money option, why, the Market Maker will prove to have no money itself or, if the client's gonna get really significant money the exchange itself will change the rules.

Remember what Comex did to the Hunts.

A right royal rogering. Indeedy.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:06 - ID#252150)
Oro@Wow!! I'd like to nominate your 12:42 "killing field" post as the most
negative & ominous ever on this forum. You even out-Peutzed Peutz.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:09 - ID#287186)
JTF - re: sea level, ice, flooding coasts, rice & Gold
I agree that melting of floating ice won't raise sea level but the overall warming of the oceans will ( after the deficit caused by the greater ice volume compared to water is made up ) . When ice shelves are partially suspended or pinned on undersea mounts then when they collapse into the sea their full weight increases sea level. Another factor is the pent up ice behind and above those ice shelves which can now flow into the sea. As the surface area of white ice decreases ( when the ice flow or berg melts ) then more dark sea surface is available to absorb sunlight.
Granted that each little bit adds only a little to the sea level but when they all add up to a few feet where a few feet means seawater intrusion into rice paddies or aquifers, especially during storm surges, then a lot of people will have their survival at stake - as in Bangladesh.
As folks in such areas are hit harder - what does that do to their demand for Gold, especially when their economies are increasingly fragile?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:15 - ID#350179)
IMF orientation and burning cellulose
Surprising gap in auroral oval puzzles scientists
"Something special may be happening back in the magnetosphere. The truth is, we don't know."
"Changes in the IMF orientation may be giving rise to perturbations in the currents aligned with the earth's magnetic field that are directly tied to auroral activity," Chua commented. "This effect has the most observational evidence so far.

Russias Forests Aflame
In Khabarovsk, about 990,000 acres are still blazing and 2.9 million acres have been destroyed. As much as two-thirds of the forest on Sakhalin, an island just miles off Japan, have burned.

Gold dust
(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:16 - ID#36791)
Kinross Gold
Does anyone have any idea of what was up with Kinross and their proposed merger with La Teko resources. Stock today @ 4.05 down a buck and a quarter this week while gold, Barrick, Placer all up? They paid a large premium for this small company with only 30 million shares trading at 1.45. Any info please?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:17 - ID#220325)
Thank you for the IRC information, much appreciated.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:17 - ID#25490)
and therefore one shouldn't p!ss in the ocean.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:21 - ID#288295)

You shouldn't mess with Mother Nature!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:22 - ID#410194)
@Puetz - Short S&P recommendations update
You made S&P recommendations a couple of weeks ago: you recommended to buy S&P puts and to sell outright S&P contracts and it has been mentionned that we will keep track of it.


It's in the red. S&P was quite lower at the time of your recommendations. What's next?

What do you recommend now? To dump the position/option or to keep waiting.

You made these recommendations for the upcoming crash that you said was delayed until the week of October 12-16.

Please don't disappear this time like you did for all of your other failed crash warnings, give us a follow-up on your latest "short S&P" recommendations.

Thanks in advance.

Date: Sun Sep 20 1998 11:39
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The stock market crash is developing slightly slower than I
anticipated. Nonetheless, it is progressing. And a massive
collapse to DJIA 3000 isn't too far away.

DJIA 3000 is coming. Buy S&P put options to profit from
this coming development.


Steve Puetz

Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 13:34
Puetz ( G-HOUR ) ID#226307:
G-hour is fast approaching.
Put on your shorts. ( S&P )
Zip up your positions.
A final hour dive?


Date: Tue Sep 29 1998 11:40
Puetz ( BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE FACT. ) ID#226307:
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We are now getting close to G-hour. That time when Greenspan's
Fed makes the decision to lower interest rates. The bull have long
anticipated this move as the salvation of the bull market.

It seems there will be little left for the bulls to hang their hat on after the anounced lowering of interest rates. Therefore:

Sell the anticipated-fact about 1/2 hour before the Fed makes their
announcement. Sell S&P futures at about 1:30 eastern time.

The crash to DJIA 3000 is getting closer. All members of the PPT
are now nearly broke -- the IMF, the large international banks, the
large brokerage houses, the hadge funds. There are no leveraged
buyers left.


Steve Puetz

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:41
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BUY THE RUMOR ( of a Fed easing ) held the DJIA up 2 weeks longer
than what is normal for a Phase-4 upward correction.

Througout Europe and Asia, the Phase-4 rally lasted about 1-week --
which is normal for a crash-pattern. Also, in those countries, the
Phase-4 rally ended on the 1st trading day after a Solar Eclipse. This
is also a pattern that indicates a crash is at hand.

Throughout Europe and Asia, stock markets have already taken out
their pre-September 1 lows. It is only in the United States where the
markets continue to diverge from the rest of the world -- where stocks
are in a free-fall.

The divergence has now stopped -- ever since SELL THE FACT time
( when the Fed actually did lower rates ) . Now the only remaining
obstacles are support at DJIA 7400 and S%P 960. Once these
levels are penetrated to the downside, we will witness the most
ferocious market-crash mankind has ever had to endure.

It looks like the crash to DJIA 3000 has been delayed by a week or
two. Nonetheless, it's coming. I now estimate the height of the crash
will arrive the week of October 12-16.

Stay tuned to Kitco for the play-by-play.



(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:23 - ID#434108)
just passing this on

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:23 - ID#254321)
Dollar down from 102 to 92 in about two months
All: You should look at a long-term plot of the price of the US dollar -- 10 years or more. The recent 10% fall in about two months is precipitous, even if it is not as rapid as a few months before the 1987 crash. I cannot find a similar historical time period that comes close -- ( other than 1987 ) .

And -- AG is dropping rates much faster than he typically does. So, as Hamlet would say 'Something is rotten in Denmark' ( apologies to aurator ) .

Am I naiive in drawing a parallel with what began in Southeast Asia about two years ago. Domino effect?

I guess one key question is: Where is the money going? Is Europe really all that much better off than the USA? Perhaps not. Perhaps the unraveling dollar/gold carry and the unraveling dollar/yen carry are dominated by unraveling short_term/long_term interest rate trades. Dollar dumping may be a sign of unfulfilled margin calls and Japanese dollar sales, rather than entirely due to a weakness in the US dollar.

Perhaps the dollar now is oversold, waiting for Germany et al to reduce rates. The EURO is in a honeymoon period right now, so a run on the EURO is unlikely -- for the moment. A Russian crisis might do the trick, pushing gold and the US Dollar up.

A clue to the direction of gold comes from commodity prices. Sure looks like they are bottoming in the US. We may be poised for a gold rally until the next big financial meltdown -- in South America or Europe. Could be months from now.

The key to the salvation of the gold bug Tsunamist will be to avoid getting caught in the cross-currents. Hope everyone has a nice weekend!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:23 - ID#25490)
Sakhalin Island is a tinderbox of conflict in the NW Pacific. That the forests are on fire is disquieting.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:28 - ID#215235)
It took me a while to find this company on the TSE and there was little information. Now selling at $.12 Canadian and with a 52-week high of about $1.15 Canadian. If they don't go out of business, it seems to me there is a potential 10 to 1 bang on your investment if the price of gold moves up and exploration also picks up. My opinion: cheap gamble.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:33 - ID#153110)
@aurator Somebody posted using your handle as Lawyerator last night.
Was it somebody you know ? and Of course, there's room on the bench.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:38 - ID#253153)
Despite weakening dollar---Interest rates are declining along with it
Isn't a paradox ? interest rates are declining with the dollar ? Why ? Because we are in deflation. The spread between 10 Yrs treasury bonds and Junk bonds ( C, B ) is widenning. The corporate bond market is bracing for massive junk bonds defaults due to coming corporate bankruptcies. For example, today, with the Dow closing at 8417 the spread was the highest in recent years. The fear factor is taking over despite rates cut. The long bond closed at 4.96 % despite a huge increase in money supply and all the negative comments being said about Treasuries these days. Come on, wake up folks, inflation is over. This deflationary can't be reversed or stopped by any politician or central banker. Gold has begun a slow upward trend that will accelerate as we progress in time. A break above $303 will confirm the gold bull market.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:39 - ID#25490)

"It was not me, eet was ma evil twin, yer honour."

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:40 - ID#350179)
Gold Dust
Could only find Oct 10 stuff in cursory search
These ( discussion boards ) probably won't help but here goes...
La Teko

I'd respond in kind to those who riposte-d, but I gotta run.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:41 - ID#290456)
Raptus regaliter.


We bees royally scrooed.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:42 - ID#71231)
EJ questions - non normalcy/BS model, yen shorts etc.

Relating to the yen short situation. The trader's commitments on the yen futures contract and yen calls from June onwards show a hedge against a large short in the actual currency. Grants interest rate monitor and Asia Monitor were talking about this issue back in June. It was mentioned in Barron's ( I should write down the dates and authors, but I didn't ) . BIS, in some articles quoted at this board voiced their concern over this issue and they cited some numbers on the order of $2 trillion in yen in net short positions and gold shorts on the order of $1/2 trillion. This number was supposedly on the rise since then.

As to the problem of options and futures pricing models, the continuity assumption is also matched by a symmetry of volatility assumption. I checked out actual pricing vs. theoretical prices and found a consistent bias ( call implied volatility is greater than put implied volatility for weeks on end on individual equities ) . Results did not vary whether using fixed security prices, moving averages or trend lines. These inconsistencies may be used to arbitrage the situation, but in checking this out, I found that the arbitrage was somewhat illusory, since the imbalances occasionally got you into hair raising situations as the arb opportunity became "better" but you were already in the hole for more than you are worth. The continuity issues and the distribution ( non normal assymmetrical variance behavior ) go so far as to cause your mechanical models to make the 'wrong' decisions as apparent arb situations were behaving as directional bets. The original BS model treats prior price behavior as a ( moving ) average ( not used in the model ) with a standard deviation ( normal usage-though any figure you specify could be used for variance ) and refers to current security prices and interest rates to calculate theoretical option prices. It can be modified to treat volatility differently - as having a directional element that may be excluded from the calculation of the variance through a simle linear model, exponential average or exponential line.
In calculating the naked option risk ( remember put to call ratios leave an exposure that is not necessarily covered by shorts or longs on the security - though the theoretical hedge should include it, many trading houses, I am told, make a directional bet ) . At this point a market model is used to quantify risk in naked call and put exposure, this is done routinely using a linear or exponential progression with a variance calculated as a standard deviation. At the close of each day, a settlement must be made on the basis of the option quote at close. If you are stuck with naked options positions you sold that have come into the money, the damage can be horrific. Particularly if you have a severely lopsided "mispricing" of one option verses its counterpart - in which case even the full hedge will not work, and you may get caught with insufficient funds. You may need to get loans on the balance in order to cover and the firm may be technically insolvent. Another point in the full hedge strategy that if you sell calls and buy the stock, you are inadvertently raising the call's price - so you try to avoid it.

The normal solution to the naked put problem in a crash situation is to go into the futures market and buy buy buy.. till the security price is right for expiration - when you buy and sell it to minimize your cash payout. The problem with this: in the days after expiration's close, the stocks/indexes are sold. Since there are few bids in a bear market, they start a new crash and you are back to where you started. This is when more trading losses are booked.

The VIX went over 50 on the August 31 and Sep 1 drops I am sure there were alot of white faces in the trading rooms. When it went to 60 last week, there were probably some people who were checking the classifieds online already.

CNBC had a proprietary trader from one of the large trading houses talking about his S&P trading methodology in July, and I was surprised to find that he was essentially trading on a commodity channel and on a trend + standard deviation model. Favors likes to use one std dev bands.

Aragorn III
(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:43 - ID#212323)
Stepping ashore to wish "Birthday Greetings!" to the Tolerant-One.
May the brightness of your cake be exceeded by that of the smiles from the loved-ones that surround you on this day.

Following my absence I turned the many pages of my calendar and behold! I had somehow been made privy to this information and had a birthday reminder written across the day. Can't recall its origin. How about that?

Wisdom reaffirmed while at is a fine thing to own this day my friend, a fine thing. A symbiotic relationship if ever there was one. Gold and man...both made better by the association ( the understatement of the year, folks ) .

Alert the gnomes at C.C....and keep the shaman at bay--this one's for you!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:45 - ID#254321)
A few feet would do it
Squirrel: You are right about that. Also, you are probably right about something else -- the earth is in a dynamic thermal equilibrium with the amount of ice we have at the poles. The melting of the ice will probably increase the the absorption of energy from the sun, provided that cloud cover does not increase. It is clear that there is an equilibrium of sorts, or our climate would not be as stable as it is. But -- it is anyones guess how much it would take to shift the earth to a new warmer ( or cooler ) equilibrium.

Also, if the polar ice melts, this will affect the rotation of the earth

One thing you left out is that the land under the ice caps also rises slowly when the ice pack melts or slides off. This will tend to make land levels fall elsewhere -- eventually. I will have to think about whether that will make ocean levels rise or fall. Probably rise.

Everything is connected. And -- our computers are just beginning to be fast enough to address these complex weather/climate issues.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:46 - ID#43460)
Squirrel re sea levels et cetera
You realize that the sea levels have increased about 400 feet already since the last ice age. This has submerged the Bahama banks, the Grand banks, the Alaskan banks, the Black Sea, shallow areas off of France and the UK ( I don't know their names ) . But on the positive side, continental temperatures have risen and rainfall increased allowing for increased forest and grain production in areas such as Siberia and central Canada. All through history people have migrated from one place to another just like the people of Bangaladesh have been doing the past 50 years. ( For instance an aquaintance of mine who settled here to learn engineering at the local college, went on to marry a local woman and open a successful retail store was originally from that country. ) IMHO

IMHO one would do better to wonder about which country will be taken over and renamed "New Bangaladesh" than predict the people in present day Bangeladesh will stand still and drown. These people have a fair amount of disposable wealth in the form of dowery gold collected through the ages, plus diligence and hard work ethic. Which contrasts with the characteristics of the people in some of the logical places for them to settle.

Actually if I had to bet I'd say that the warming trend will reverse itself suddenly some time within the next ten years causing the abandonment of some of our more northern areas and causing more drought conditions in us/canada and more rain in central china. This opinion is based on a climatological report I've misplaced since I read. I'll look for the URL again and will post it as I find it. IMHO

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:47 - ID#290456)

I've seen that $303 term a couple times today as being a benchmark for the gold bull market.

What's the basis for using this particular price? Also is this a daily close, or a weekly close?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:50 - ID#28994)
Step outside to the fresh air..Now.,.Give your head a shake.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:51 - ID#350179)
Silverbaron - very possibly related (aurora)
High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
their page:
another perspective:

I wondered about the x-ray blast from the gravitar ( ? ) a few weeks back as well. Now I've really veered off my intended course ( and will shortly be chastised ) .

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:56 - ID#253153)
Silverbaron---A daily close of gold above $303 will confirm the bull market
We had many false starts, but I think the current one is for real. I do'nt expect an explosive bull market with a close above $303 but rather a slow upward trend for awhile. In 1999 the gold and gold mining shares will get the respect they deserve from the investment community. The big explosive move will occur late in 1999 and in years 2000-2002. Be patient, you will be rewarded for your long wait.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:58 - ID#227290)
Strong showing today
I kept waiting for gold to sell off today in light of the weekend. It didn't!!! That's a great sign.

Also, can anyone educate me on the XAU? What does it represent?


(Fri Oct 16 1998 18:58 - ID#254321)
Market trends -- signing off -- Real boss calling
JP: I do no disagree with you - long term trends in the US are deflationary. However, I humbly suggest that the path will not be a linear one. I would not be surprised if we have a few inflationary episodes on the way.

For example, you could argue that the recent drop in commodity prices was due to the SEAsia crisis finally sweeping over our shores. It will tkae some time before the deflationary effect of a South American or European collapse sweeps over us. In the meantime, gold has an opportunity to rise either from a falling dollar or from rising commodity prices.

Here's a question for you. You clearly understand the deflationary processes well. Do you have a historical model to compare to, and was the deflationary trend a steady one? Or, was it fitful with ups and downs on the way?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:00 - ID#230244)
@DUTCHMAN re Williams Resources
Back in 1996 very profitable when gold was in $400/range. Some turkey suggested to the board to invest in a resouce mutual fund, they got burnt big time. Guess what the mutual fund owned, BREX. Since then they suspended paymnent on the convertibles. I paid in 1996 57.90$ now at 18.75$. Once gold reaches 325 to 335$ they should be ok.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:03 - ID#434108)
excerpts of my 9/97 at kitco, & my 2/98rticle/editorial at
( ( 10/16/98:: - Isn't their some fateful irony, while 'we', the "U.S.A" is still "privileged" to get to lower interest rates ( -in desperation ) while IMF-imploded nation after nation has been usurously forced
to raise their interest rates - beaking the debt-burdened backs of
their economies, thus shattering and surrendering
their peoples ... into poverty...

while the "rich" - pretending to orchestrate and
"manage" a paper-credit ruined global economy

begin to wake - up to the reality of natural law at work in the market-place:

they are going down -- we are all going down, with this
paper credit economic Titanic...

except for those with the forsight, understanding, or luck, to get into the "golden lifeboats" .... in time ) )
David Blair Macrory

Here are my excerpts/words, from 9/97 & 2/98:

A Golden Cure for World-wide Deflation Contagion
Feb. 2nd, 1998; at ( Editorials )

From Thomas Jefferson, in an address to his fellow 'founding
fathers' of the new nation:

Thomas Jefferson: "If the American people ever allow the
banking system to control their money, first by inflation, then by
deflation; their children will one day wake up homeless on the
continent their fathers conquered."

The world's financial and monetary systems may be likened to a
gigantic teetering circus-tent.

( From my 9/27/97/ discussion-board post: )
" And when the tent collapses,
it will not be the center-post that goes first;
it will be the side-posts; and even the stakes. "

The "stakes" are the Asian Tiger economies. The "side-posts"
are the most important trading partners of the U.S. This includes
the strategic national economies of: Hong Kong/China, Japan,
Canada, Mexico, South America and Europe. The "center-post"
is the U.S. economy, including its stock markets.

The "tent" is the world-economy, built on a mountain of artificial
money and credit, created out of thin air, by a politically
engineered and dominated central banking system, that has
mastered the art of legalized counterfeiting. It has taken
generations, to perfect this art and master this tune, that plays
the drum-beat of billions of dollars of false wealth created per

Not too many years ago, it was against the law to counterfeit
money, including by governments or banks.

And now what: Gold going up?in the midst of spreading
Deflation? How can this be!

I've been visiting the Kitco site for about a year now; and it is
evident from the discussions there, that most of us are still
deluded by, and caught up in, the artificial Santa-Clause
Economy built on the BIG LIE: money and credit created out of
nothing. This insures an over-extended, artificial, seemingly
benevolent "economic summer" that may last for generations. All
the while the masses misperceptions grow, while the
money-masters of power, in the world, in control of interest rates,
of credit availability, and of the volume of money flooding the
world.they thus become economic dictators in hiding.ruling
over the ultimate value of the money you earn, spend, invest,
and save for a 'rainy-day" or retirement, or the kids'' education.

The world over central banks have evolved with their
governments blessings into a quiet, awesome club of collusion
and unbridled power. They hold in their hands the destinies of
nations, and the fate of millions. Reginald McKenna, a 19th
century banker of England said: "Give me control of a nation's
money, and I care not who makes the laws."

It is, in fact, very natural, for gold to go up, as deflation
intensifies. Just as it is very natural for gold to go up in
inflationary times, as well. That is because the inflation and
deflation are happening to the paper currency, the artificial
money of the realm. Inflation and deflation do not happen to gold.
And it is artificial, unbacked money and credit, once it is spawned
out across the world, that ebbs and flows by the billions and
trillions, thus distorting and manipulating the economies of the
world's nations. Once this spreading cancer is set in motion, the
economies and countries grow increasingly out of balance, and
ultimately out of control. And it almost always starts showing up
in an obvious way with with currency instability, which was the
root of the problem to begin with - unreal currencies. Just ask the
hundreds of thousands of Asians who have just been laid off, or
reduced to 30% of their previous income, almost overnight.

The ignorance, misconceptions and confusion grow, because we
seem to live in enduringly good times. And the BIG LIE  that
artificial money created out of nothing is real money -- has had
generations of time to take root: in our institutions of higher
learning, in the board rooms of our most brilliant corporations, at
the family dinner table discussions of what we studied in school
today, and in the not so noble halls of government offices across
our fair land. What we have failed to understand, or have
forgotten, is that the basic standard, the unit of a nation's money
-- the medium of exchange and store of value -- is the foundation
of, and the fundamental building block, upon which, a nation's
entire economy is built. It is essential for this unit, this
standard of
money, to be freely, willingly , and universally acceptable
because it is stable, real, and can be trusted, by any and every

Historically only gold money, or money and credit units
convertible to and backed by gold, have endured as real money,
immune to both inflation and deflation. Gold is independent and
free of manipulation and control by any governmental powers
and special interests. John Adams' words of 200 years ago are
just as timely and important today: "All the perplexities,
confusions and distresses in America arise, not from defects in
the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or
virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of
coin, credit and circulation."

Real money, gold, endures as stable and trusted currency,
regardless of governments that rise and fall, and economies that
go through there natural, moderate, non-manipulated cycles of
economic summer and economic winter. Politicians resist
gold-based money, because it strictly limits them, and disciplines
their lust for power and control, along with their intimate banking
friends. This means that economies no longer remain in balance,
and ultimately, over-extended economic summers, are followed
by inevitable, and very painful economic winters. All of this
excess to excess, is unnecessary, and would be avoidable, if a
gold standard money system were established and honored,
among the community of nations.

The brilliant Ludwig von Mises, of the Austrian School of
Economics put it this way: "The eminence of the gold standard
consists in the fact that it makes the determination of the
monetary unit's purchasing power independent of the measures
of governments. It wrests from the hands of the "economic czar"
their most redoubtable instrument.. It makes it impossible for
them to inflate. That is why the gold standard is furiously
attacked by all those who expect they will benefit by bounties
from the seemingly inexhaustible government purse." ( The truth
and wisdom from this master-teacher of true economics, might
help us better understand why there has been so much media
coverage of reported central bank gold sales, the last year or
two. )

Now, the last several decades of mushrooming credit-creation
world-wide, has led to a debt-ridden international economy with
careening markets and collapsing paper currencies. This
debt-ridden, artificially propped up, international economy is
symptomized by over-built real-estate, with grossly inflated
values. World-wide, property values are beginning to feel the
effects of spreading deflation. The recent deflationary free-fall
Hong Kong property values, will likely spread next to Japan and
China. The deflationary world economy is like a Titanic, and their
are never going to be enough IMF buckets to bail her out.

Also symptomatic of this international economy beginning to mire
in debt and growing deflationary momentum, is the overcapacity
of industrial and technological production. This has resulted from
first of all, a glut of easy credit for the asking, and now, the
is not only awash in red-ink, but also in a glut of goods and
services that most people don't want, and fewer and fewer can
really afford. These kinds of glaring symptoms are the recipe for
spreading, world-wide deflation, with ominous implications. When
desperate Asian nations want to import new cars to sell here at
half last year's prices, the protectionism, trade barriers and
trade-wars will be looming right behind.

For lifeboats, we best look to the historical lessons of gold: gold
unassailable, real money, and gold as a haven of capital
preservation in times of economic crisis and currency turmoil. We
got ourselves into this mess by allowing our governments and
special interests to divorce our money from gold backing and
convertibility. At one time, our currency was originally as good as
gold, a virtual receipt for real money. It was even printed, right
there on each and every U.S. piece of currency: "payable to the
bearer on demand in gold". It's enough to make our grandparents
generation roll over in their graves.

Deflation happens to artificial currencies and credit instruments
at certain times, just as inflation does at other times, because
they can be controlled and manipulated by the powers that be.
Naturally stable economies, based on real money, are immune to
inflation and deflation, and the powers that be -- their hands are
tied, by the immunity of, and independence of gold. I have an
early 1930s' chart of HM overlaying the DJIA. In 1973, I was
giving economics seminars in the SF Bay Area entitled: "What
Makes the U.S. Economy Tickand Why it is a Ticking
Time-Bomb." The economy's turned out to have a longer fuse
than I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse is,
indeed, running out. From early 1930 to 1932 Homestake Mining
appreciated approximately 500% while the Dow was crashing in
wave after deflationary wave, wiping out the livelihoods and
fortunes of millions who never knew what hit themsort of the
way growing numbers of people are feeling in Asia. And the
"Asian Contagion" is spreading, regardless of our self-absorbed,
insular, wishful thinking.

Admittedly the U.S. government called in ( confiscated ) the
American people's gold in the early '30s - at the old price at
$20/oz.; and then our President FDR 'pegged' it at $35/oz. He
was stuck between a rock and hard-place, and this no doubt
helped the HM price along its bull market way. But I wouldn't wait
for another confiscation, or another FDR. The new baby bull
market in gold is here, now. And before its over, there's going to
be quite a stampede. All those mutual fund holders of the '80s &
'90s, will not be able to get out of the same 'sell' door at the
time; it could get very messy, interesting, but messy.

Ultimately, after the current painful but cleansing cycle runs its
course, there will be a new dawn, and new day. The peoples of
the nations of the world, their governments and bankers
included, will at last return to the discipline and integrity of
gold-redeemable money, and gold-backed and gold-defined
credit instruments. These will be the basic monetary
building-blocks, the life-giving ingredients -- like a healthy,
renewed, purified economic blood-stream -- that will be the
foundation for new and flourishing economies. This will come, in
a new millennium of economic nation building, in which a thriving
world economy will create and produce enough for all peoples,

May all peoples, of every nation, creed and color, have an equal
opportunity to contribute; and enjoy the fruits of their work, and
their entrepreneurial talents. May we all learn to live in a new
world, in a cooperative while yet competitive, international
community of nations, committed to the dignity of the human soul,
the inherent freedom of the human spirit, and the sanctity of
human life.

David Blair Macrory

2 February 1998

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:05 - ID#252391)
That's about all she wrote
Interesting week, finished better than begun. The Central Bank/Hedge Fund Cabal defended the $300 line but they may begin a subtle retreat as the next week begins. Wild idea Bill Murphy suggests relative to the Japanese and Chinese having the FED and the CBs up against it. Should they actually be buying in size with the intent of forming a yen/gold based currency that could be earth shaking stuff indeed.

Being so close to gold, however, has lead me to miss out on other great trading opportunities. With the best part of the recover rally in the S&P likely out of the way I suppose I'll just give it an OH WELL - gold should have its day though my preference is for a slow unfolding rally rather than one that further rocks the system and endangers standards of livings.

Good weekend to all - thanks Bart for this new and improved great site - I can only wonder how much money I would have made if I had never discovered it, and how much I might make and save if the ideas expressed here, in the end, hold the truth.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:05 - ID#71231)
James - "killing fields" caveats
There is the possibility of stability - fed manages to manipulate all treasury maturities into steady ranges ( buy them as Japanese and Euro CBs sell ) and gets the Japanese and Europeans to agree on support ops for the dollar and assist in depression operations for POG. This would be a great balancing act that could be pulled off, but I doubt that AG, RR and WJC can pull it off after all the browbeating and fingerpointing they were doing over the past few years on both counts.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:10 - ID#344326)
The XAU is the "Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index" It is an index, like the DOW or S&P, but it's contents are 11 gold and silver mining companies. Follow this link for the companies included.....

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:11 - ID#253153)
If the bond market senses any money printing ( inflation) it will collapse
and interest rates will soar. The bond market capitalization is 200-400 times larger than the equities market. Any reflation attempts ( via printing ) will stop our government from raising any additional funds by selling bonds. The problem with people is their inability to recognize and adapt to the new deflationary environment. I feel pitty for investors who still maintain their inflation hedges. They will join the homeless rank and file soon. Have a nice weekend. I'm off on a long well deserved vacation in Africa.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:11 - ID#254239)
xau top 10 senior golds
abx, au, bmg, pdg,nem,hm,glg,eco,au,tvx trading on the dow

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:22 - ID#284255)
Two Interesting Charts
FDIC Chart

Banks Chart

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:28 - ID#350145)
selby and dutchman re william resources
i own willam and have been watching it. it seems weak. for this type of play my blackhawk ( t.bhk ) sure has been performing better. one of my other one's which has been acting well is canarc ( t.ccm ) , athough it is not a produceer, but has reserves.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:29 - ID#25490)
Can anyone remember the price von Fink paid for HM? I've lost the info. TIA

Mike Sheller
(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:32 - ID#348257)
I would like to apologize to all the brethren and sistren at Kitco for the inaccuracy of my recent call of a stock market bottom and an imminent rise in the DOW to 8400. I said 8400 would happen "quickly" indeed, but I was figuring about 2 weeks. Well...duhhhh. I guess the old astrologer is gettin' slow these days ( these years is more like it - though I'm still in my prime! ) . In all seriousness, the market action of the past several weeks was classic bottom stuff. There was NOWHERE to go but up. Whether this is a rally in a bear, or an attempt to retrace to the highs ( my guess ) we shall see. Next resistance is 8900. Even if the major averages recover to at or near previous highs, many of the secondary and smaller stocks will eventually catch up and put in very nice gains. If you liked my call for 8400, then trust me - buy CRK and EEC now. Sorry, they're not gold stocks. Or golf stocks either. Sit back and if you don't double your money from these levels in a year I will apologize publicly. Yes DOUBLE. These are my 2 mostest favorite astrological, technical, and funnymental choices. Bar none ( noone ) . Now who you gonna believe? A guy who watches the Moon but disses astrology? Or a real astrologer ?
BTW- these "thoughts" re CRK and EEC are out of the goodness of my heart. See my caveat below.

NOTE: The thoughts and analyses expressed in this post are speculation. The reader must choose how much of the material presented herein should be used to apply to his/her own personal market activities. Any comments, predictions, or speculations concerning companies, investments, or investment markets are for research and educational purposes and may be subject to error. Past patterns and occurences in financial markets, whether in relation to astrology or any other form of analysis or strategy, may not always be reliable indicators of future activity. Readers are advised of the potential risk of capital loss in any uninsured investment, including stocks, bonds, gold bullion, futures, and other investment vehicles. Even paper money issued by lawfully constituted governments, including the Treasury of the United States of America, carries no guarantee that its purchasing power and relative value will remain intact and not erode over time. Information contained in this post may have been gathered from many sources, believed to be reliable, but no guarantee can be made as to the accuracy of such information. The issuer of this post is not a dealer or broker in investments, neither stocks, bonds, gold, or other investments. The issuer of this post may have a position in the securities, commodities, or investments mentioned. The issuer of this post presents the material herein as proprietary opinion and research and is not acting in any investment advisory capacity. Readers are advised to consult with their own personal or corporate sources of financial or market counsel. All choices made by readers of this post based on the information contained herein are the responsibility of the reader. It is the right of every person in a free society to use the information presented herein as they best see fit.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:40 - ID#290456)
Colin Seymour does Nostradamus!
A nice read.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:45 - ID#344326)
Good comment from Bill Fleckenstein...
Humor of the day
Some of you are wondering why I have such scorn for Alan Greenspan. I have watched his actions for some time, and he has been wrong at nearly every juncture. Along those lines, I will be sharing certain tidbits from the chairman so that you can formulate your own opinion.

Here goes the first one:
"It is very rare that you can be as unqualifiedly bullish as you can now."
-Alan Greenspan of Townsend Greenspan
NY Times January 7, 1973

This was two days after the all-time stock market peak ( until 1983 ) and the stock market collapsed by 40 percent over the next two years. We were also heading into the worst recession of the last 50 years.

How much faith do you want to place in the Fed Chairman?

William A. Fleckenstein

Aragorn III
(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:48 - ID#212323)
Stepping ashore to wish "Birthday Greetings!" to the Tolerant-One.
May the brightness of your cake be exceeded by that of the smiles from the loved-ones that surround you on this day.

Following my absence I turned the many pages of my calendar and behold! I had somehow been made privy to this information and had a birthday reminder written across the day. Can't recall its origin. How about that?

Wisdom reaffirmed while at is a fine thing to own this day my friend, a fine thing. A symbiotic relationship if ever there was one. Gold and man...both made better by the association ( the understatement of the year, folks ) .

Alert the gnomes at C.C....and keep the shaman at bay--this one's for you!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 19:48 - ID#433422)
Squirrel and JTF, another factor to consider

in your intrigueing exchange, thermal expansion of the water. Not much?
A large portion of the oceans are VERY deep. I don't recall exact depths, but I remember hearing that there are lots of places where depths exceed 25,000 feet.The "Machinery's Handbook" 21st edition ( my bible ) , lists the "volumes of water at different temperatures" on page 2318, 39.1f = 1.00000 cubic ft. At 50f. it's 1.00025. 25,000X .00025= 6.25. Now here's where I need some help. How does this "6.25" number manifest in the level rise?

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:08 - ID#295111)
XAU Today
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $21.1875 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.23
ASL-Ashanti Gold-----CLOSED AT $09.0625 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.04
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.5000 -0.3750 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.28
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $05.8750 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.01
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $12.5000 1.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.84
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $16.0000 -0.3125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.03
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.0000 0.0000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $12.5625 -0.7500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.52
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $23.6250 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.06
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $15.0000 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.56

XAU CLOSED AT 76.35 0.83

(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:23 - ID#401460)
Moody's comments on Cayman Islands Aa3ratings

Friday October 16, 3:54 pm Eastern Time

NEW YORK, ``The Cayman Islands' Aa3 country ceiling for foreign currency debt reflects the territory's extensive links to the UK as well as prudent economic policies,'' Moody's Investors Service states in its recent report on
the British dependent territory.

Moody's report also says that the ratings are supported by a low public sector debt burden.

The islands' twin-pillar economy of tourism and off-shore financial services is healthy, but Moody's warns that diversification is unlikely due to limited resources, and therefore, the economy will remain ``susceptible to exogenous factors'' affecting its two key industries.

Additionally, Moody's says that the off-shore banking sector is insulated from sovereign risk, and reiterates that the off-shore sector, the so-called licensed 'B' banks, carry ceilings of Aaa and Prime-1.
Just what are they trying to say, is it, you maybe should watch your accounts in the Caymans?


Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:24 - ID#295111)
@Silverbaron 18:03 Re: Obsidian
Right on!
That's why Germany is now starting to say it's OK for the IMF to sell it's gold ( however, Germany will not sell any of their hoard!!! )

The gold that has been loaned out by hedgefunds has to be purchased from somewhere? What the shorters fail to realize is that MOST peopl who buy gold want to hold it for the long term.

Look how fast the yen climbed when Hedge funds had to cover the short of the yen.

I say that in comparision, when gold is covered by the shorts, the rise in the POG will be much more dramatic than the rise of the Yen. We could see POG at $450 real quick.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:26 - ID#242325)
Bulls and Bears
Although I was surprised by the strenght of this rally, I had grown skeptical enough of the NEAR TERM bear case to cover shorts and take a modest long position in oil service. One thing the bulls had going for them was huge insider buying activity. The bears ignored this to their cost.

I still think we are in a bear market and expect the Dow to make new lows next year. But it will take a lot of time before the bulls are finally demolished. And those who bet large sums on an October crash will have to pay the penalty of bad timing.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:28 - ID#295111)
@Pryztula Re: XAU
You can also try this link at the PHIL. Stk. Ex.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:39 - ID#295111)
Steve Kaplan
Steve has a good read on hedge funds who shorted gold and will have to cover their position... when is the BIG QUESTION!!!

Here's what he says today .....

THEIR HANDS ARE TIED: Over the past few years, each time that gold attempted to rally, speculators borrowed
huge amounts to get cheap money ( the gold lease rate has generally been extremely low, averaging 1% ) and to sell
it short for profit. Lately this has not been happening, even at times when such action would have been to short
sellers' advantage, such as on Wednesday when the price of gold was poised to break below its 200-day moving
average and a decline of just a few more dollars would likely have set off a chain reaction of sell stops. The
probable reason is that most of the gold borrowing has been done by hedge funds and investment pools, whose
counterparties and/or directors are no longer permitting such trades due to their newly perceived risk following the
failure of several hedge funds. If fewer new gold loans are originated, while past loans must be repaid in gold
bullion, gold loans will have made a sharp turnaround from a strong short-term negative for the gold price to a
moderate long-term positive factor.

As I say, we can sse gold at $450 real quick, but if the worldwide financial system starts to collapse if many banks/funds lose money THEN...

WE COULD SEE GOLD IN the $3,000 to $30,000 range

so, hold on to your gold and buy more cause it's worth the risk. I mean, it can't go down by much, BUT IT COULD SKYROCKET.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 20:57 - ID#190411)
@ Tantalus Rex and nobody
Say, TRex, did you see nobody's comment on the manipulation of shareprice heading into expiry? I have read of this before on this forum, but, it's always nice to have a refresher course.
PDG+.6875 to a nice round 15.00000000000000000000000 bucks even.
HM -.7500 to a nice round 12.25000000000000000000000 bucks even.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:00 - ID#295111)
For a long time, money was flowing out of GOLD MUTUAL FUNDS.
However, the trend is changing.
For the past 3 weeks, money has been pouring into GOLD MUTUAL FUND.

09/23/98....$2,097,000 inflow..Total Assets $3.6 billion
09/30/98...$27,258,000 inflow..Total Assets $4.0 billion
10/07/98...$52,413,000 inflow..Total Assets $4.3 billion

This is great news. Baby Boomers ( the smarter ones at least ) have begun to see the GOLDEN light!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:15 - ID#341227)
@REALISTIC (or whoever you are)...on behalf of Puetz...
I do not know Puetz or anything about him other than what I have digested here on KITCO. However, I will say this much...I remain thoroughly amazed at this your efforts to humiliate failed forecasts on the part of posters such as Puetz.

Although you couch your attacks in the form of ever so innocent questions, your intention is to throw incessant ridicule upon the poster.

If I were you ( thankfully not ) , I would seriously contemplate the incredible amount of bad Karma you are accumulating in your relentless disparagement of such posters ( myself included ) .

I only pray that when the market crash occurs, every single poster on this forum will write you a neverending series of posts for days and weeks on end questioning your abject stupidity in holding bonds and equities point of disaster. As you sit in front of your brokerage statement contemplating the decimation of your financial worth, I only pray that there are numerous people ringing you on your home phone, mocking you for your unyielding faith in this financial bubble. I hope that there is no corner of this planet that you can hide, that people you have influenced to follow your misguided faith in bonds/equities will hound you until the day you die...AND THEY WILL BLAME YOU!

Mr. Real, do not be too smug about your correctness and Puetz's errors. You have one thing going in your favor and it is something Puetz can never forecast...specifically, you have the unceasing, arbitrary assistance of the most corrupt government in American history, led by Prez Clinton, aided and abetted by Messrs. Greenspan and Rubin, and they are working for American bonds/equities bulls like yourself to the detriment of the entire world's economic welfare. The financial market's ability to keep its head above water to date is solely owing to these manipulators neverending intervention in the bonds and equities markets of this nation. The bond and equities markets today are NOT in equilibrium...they are in a constantly supported, NON-equilibrium state. This artificial support has lasted now for well over a year and at some point, the dam will break and there will be nothing your friends, Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin will be able to do about it.

Any notion that America still maintains a level playing field in the markets is mere fantasy. The entire game is rigged. America is no longer a free enterprise nation any more. It has evolved into a fascist nation, with the politicans bought and paid for by the mega-corporations on Wall Street who now call all the shots. They do so to the detriment of global economic welfare...and yes, believe it or not, as you shall soon witness, America is NOT an isolated Paradise removed from this global upheaval. The ill effects are headed this way at full blast.

I believe Puetz's forecasts are compelling and often seem quite valid. The lunar influences on human psychology may sound daffy; yet, someday they may be proved to be valid. Which deity are you to declare their invalidity? Where is your empirical evidence that categorically refutes his assertions?

Most posters on this forum knows who Puetz is...and we know when he is right and when he is wrong. We do not need your reminders ad nauseum.

Nobody needs you to endlessly needle the posters on this forum who post Bearish forecasts of your beloved equities and bonds. Your intimidation is a part and parcel of the fascist nation this country has become. The only freedom remaining in this country seems to be so-called "moral freedom" ( certainly NOT economic freedom ) , the kind that allows radio talk show hosts to discuss blow jobs and anal sex endlessly during
the day or 13 year old girls to get abortions on demand. Thanks Mr. Clinton!

Although I acknowledge guilt in using excessively strident tactics against gold bears, PM technicians, etc., when I first posted on this forum ( a case of fighting fire with fire ) , I eventually arrived at an epiphany and realized that the tactic is both inappropriate and inhumane...very simply, it is not nice ( My only excuse being that I felt gold bulls were in a stuporous state and needed to be shocked, by any method possible, out of their blind obeisance to the gold antagonists' "New Paradigm" propaganda. At least now, we finally are discovering why gold bears are so anti-gold...they never really doubted gold's precious value; rather they simply needed ever cheaper gold to finance their sundry investments in derivatives ) .

In any case, maybe the time has come for you to reach a similar epiphany about the imperative of humanity in an increasingly inhumane world....and leave the Puetz's of the world alone.



(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:19 - ID#341227)
@REALISTIC (or whoever you are)...on Behalf of Puetz.
 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I do not know Puetz or anything about him other than what I have digested here on KITCO. However, I will
say this much...I remain thoroughly amazed at this your efforts to humiliate failed forecasts on the part of
posters such as Puetz.

Although you couch your attacks in the form of ever so innocent questions, your intention is to throw
incessant ridicule upon the poster.

If I were you ( thankfully not ) , I would seriously contemplate the incredible amount of bad Karma you are
accumulating in your relentless disparagement of such posters ( myself included ) .

I only pray that when the market crash occurs, every single poster on this forum will write you a
neverending series of posts for days and weeks on end questioning your abject stupidity in holding bonds
and equities until the point of disaster. As you sit in front of your brokerage statement contemplating the decimation
of your financial worth, I only pray that there are numerous people ringing you on your home phone,
mocking you for your unyielding faith in this financial bubble. I hope that there is no corner of this planet
that you can hide, that people you have influenced to follow your misguided faith in bonds/equities will
hound you until the day you die...AND THEY WILL BLAME YOU!

Mr. Real, do not be too smug about your correctness and Puetz's errors. You have one thing going in your
favor and it is something Puetz can never forecast...specifically, you have the unceasing, arbitrary assistance
of the most corrupt government in American history, led by Prez Clinton, aided and abetted by Messrs.
Greenspan and Rubin, and they are working for American bonds/equities bulls like yourself to the detriment
of the entire world's economic welfare. The financial market's ability to keep its head above water to date is
solely owing to these manipulators neverending intervention in the bonds and equities markets of this nation.
The bond and equities markets today are NOT in equilibrium...they are in a constantly supported,
NON-equilibrium state. This artificial support has lasted now for well over a year and at some point, the dam
will break and there will be nothing your friends, Clinton, Greenspan, Rubin will be able to do about it.

Any notion that America still maintains a level playing field in the markets is mere fantasy. The entire game is
rigged. America is no longer a free enterprise nation any more. It has evolved into a fascist nation, with the
politicans bought and paid for by the mega-corporations on Wall Street who now call all the shots. They do
so to the detriment of global economic welfare...and yes, believe it or not, as you shall soon witness,
America is NOT an isolated Paradise removed from this global upheaval. The ill effects are headed this way
at full blast.

I believe Puetz's forecasts are compelling and often seem quite valid. The lunar influences on human
psychology may sound daffy; yet, someday they may be proved to be valid. Which deity are you to declare
their invalidity? Where is your empirical evidence that categorically refutes his assertions?

Most posters on this forum knows who Puetz is...and we know when he is right and when he is wrong. We
do not need your reminders ad nauseum.

Nobody needs you to endlessly needle the posters on this forum who post Bearish forecasts of your beloved
equities and bonds. Your intimidation is a part and parcel of the fascist nation this country has become. The
only freedom remaining in this country seems to be so-called "moral freedom" ( certainly NOT economic
freedom ) , the kind that allows radio talk show hosts to discuss blow jobs and anal sex endlessly during
the day or 13 year old girls to get abortions on demand. Thanks Mr. Clinton!

Although I acknowledge guilt in using excessively strident tactics against gold bears, PM technicians, etc.,
when I first posted on this forum ( a case of fighting fire with fire ) , I eventually arrived at an epiphany and
realized that the tactic is both inappropriate and inhumane...very simply, it is not nice ( My only excuse
being that I felt gold bulls were in a stuporous state and needed to be shocked, by any method possible, out
of their blind obeisance to the gold antagonists' "New Paradigm" propaganda. At least now, we finally are
discovering why gold bears are so anti-gold...they never really doubted gold's precious value; rather they
simply needed ever cheaper gold to finance their sundry investments in derivatives ) .

In any case, maybe the time has come for you to reach a similar epiphany about the imperative of humanity
in an increasingly inhumane world....and leave the Puetz's of the world alone.



(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:19 - ID#287279)
Bad news?
"David Corby, National Mutual's chief economist, and Nigel Purchase, its investment manager, are among the first economic forecasters anywhere in the world to have predicted a profound global recession in 1999-2000.
National Mutual has backed the call with clients' money and while the depressive duo profess to not sleeping happy at night, they can be reassured that in the last six weeks the trickle of doomsayers has turned into a flood and their Cassandra cries are at least being echoed by people like US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.
If Corby and Purchase are right, the conditions are in place for the worst global recession in 60 years. If they are too optimistic, the world will enter a depression to rival the Great one."

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:22 - ID#344326)
@ farfel
A Kitco BRABO to ya!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:22 - ID#156161)
We have several projects on the boards ( screens? ) and under

construction on Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac.

It is a boom situation, with lots of talk of hotels and resort

construction, but a very difficult bureaucracy. The financial

scene is aggressive and dangerous, bring your lawyers. It's a

small town with no secrets.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:29 - ID#287279)
Dobry wieczor Przytula!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:32 - ID#258273)
Thank you for your recent post. I had mentioned a week or so that I missed your posts. I have been mostly lurking for the past year. Perhaps now,once again, we can hear arguments from the bulls and bears and make our own decisions. Appreciate your call to minimize the facist tactics as they are distracting at best.

I have personally profited nicely by listening to the bears this past year. So I really am glad to have you back.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:35 - ID#284255)
Sherman Skolnick Sounds Off!

Sherman Skolnick Sounds Off!

The Konformist proudly presents a section dedicated to the writings of Sherman

Here is Sherman's latest:

Sherman H. Skolnick
Recorded phone message: ( 773 ) 731-1000
Office, 8 A.M. to midnight, 7 days: ( 773 ) 375-5741
9800 So. Oglesby Ave., Chicago IL 60617-4870


By Sherman H. Skolnick

Producer/Moderator, Public Access Cable TV Program "Broadsides"
Since 1963, Founder/Chairman, Citizen's Committee to Clean Up the Courts

The world's largest bank, the Federal Reserve, has ordered the US Congress to
be careful in dealing with President Clinton. An order from this financial
dictator cannot be ignored, although dissidents in the US military vow at some
point to go public with their views against their Commander-in Chief Clinton.

Privately owned and operated by the Rockefeller and Rothschild families, and
masquerading as America's Central Bank, the Federal Reserve does not want a
change of figureheads in the White House, at a time of imminent collapse of
global finance. The clandestine command of the Federal Reserve comes at a time
of near collapse, or actual collapse, of a huge hedge fund interlocked with
many money center banks, including those headquartered in the US, and also
those like in Switzerland with branches in the US.

Amounting upwards to 200 billion dollars or more, the hedge fund disaster,
based greatly on little-understood derivatives gambling, has wiped out the
capital base of many supposedly "giant" banks Most of the alleged "profits" of
major bank holding companies in recent years have been just book entries
resulting from this gambling casino mentality. The public has almost no
understanding of the link between banks and their parent holding firms.

Among those with capital structure wipe-out are Rockefeller-owned Chase
Manhattan Bank and the First National Bank of Chicago, as well as the
Rothschild and Jesuit-owned Bank of America which took over the Vatican and
British-royalty-owned Continental Bank Of Chicago. Continental has been, since
before the American Civil War, the mothership of the commodity and currency
markets and trading in Chicago. ( Continental laundered the funds for the
murder of President Abraham Lincoln. )

Now almost forgotten, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was set up in
the 1930s to underwrite accounts, up to a specified amount as maximum,
primarily of smaller or mid-size banks. With the mega-mergers gobbling up the
banks and their holding firms and conglomerating into huge bank chains, the
deposit insurance has become a dead letter. Only a few tens of billions of
dollars are in the deposit insurance reserve fund to supposedly safeguard bank
monsters each with several hundred billion dollars in deposits owed to the
public. The banking system has become over-run with bank monopolies, also
engaging in non-bank services such as travel agencies, insurance, securities
transactions, and such--enterprises supposedly part of a "bank" house too
large to permit to fail.

Embedded in the secret command to Congress from the Federal Reserve is that a
prolonged trauma over removing or beheading America's King and Emperor would
most likely cause to be exposed various dark secrets:

--Such as that William Jefferson Clinton, a sexual predator suffering from
priapism, was selected in 1991 by the secret society, the Bilderberg Group, to
be anointed as the American President specifically because he was subject to
blackmail by his psychiatric past. The presslords, members of Bilderberg
whose annual meeting is in a different country, agreed to propagandize in
11992 and thereafter in favor of Clinton, insuring the so-called "election" of
Clinton at the hands of a dumbed-down, brain-dead populace.

--Such as, that the 1992 election, and the 1996 election, were arranged
frauds: Part of a "CIA couple", with his CIA "wife" actually incompatible to
him and a lesbian, Bill Clinton ran against his long-time crony and mentor,
the former head of America's secret political police, George Herbert Walker
Bush. Neither the CIA's separate grooming of Bill Clinton and Hillary Rodham,
both closet Republicans, each from an early age with separate CIA agenda, nor
Bush's assassination-ridden past, such as his complicity in the murder of
President Kennedy nor Bush's criminal complicity in the Iran-Contra affair,
were exposed in the 1992 election. Bush and Clinton agreed to shadow box.

In the 1996 election, Clinton was paired against elderly, used-out Senator
Robert Dole who agreed with Clinton: Dole would not mention Clinton's
treasonous crimes and Clinton agreed not to mention Dole fronting for various
oil companies, most of which use CIA worldwide as their oilfield security
force against would-be dissident elements.

--Such as, that by the 1990s, 25% of both houses of Congress were bribed of
subject to blackmail as if having been bribed. This graft done, by the
worldwide espionage and gun and dope enterprise, the infamous Bank Of Credit
and Commerce International. Although pronounced as defunct, BCCI continues
through its successor and alter-ego, Pinnacle Bank Group, headquartered in
Chicago, at the First National Bank of Cicero ( a Mafia enclave ) , and dominated
by the former head of the Vatican Bank, Bishop Paul Marcinkus. BCCI hoped to
spread out in the US by buying laws and lawmakers. BCCI's records. showing 108
members of the US House of Representatives and 28 US Senators as being
receivers through a London unit of massive bribes, were actually an open
record in the Bank of England for just 30 days.

The details of this bribery of the American legislative branch were in 1991 an
exclusive story by this writer which only one paper, a conservative one, dared
to publish. As my article set forth, four major news organizations had the
bribery list and had compiled the corroboration of same, but refused to
broadcast or publish it. Why? As told to this writer by a major prize-winning
news correspondent who turned over the details to Skolnick, "The editor says
we are not going to topple the American government."

--Such as, the US Central Government has become riddled in all three branches
with horrendous treason. For example, a Clinton White House intern, Mary
Caitlin Mahoney, alter murdered in the District of Columbia by a foreign
intelligence team, was an eyewitness to Clinton, as President and Commander-In
-Chief, turning over US financial, industrial, and military secrets to Wang
Jun, reputed head of the Red Chinese Secret Police. Supposed "Independent
Counsel" Kenneth W. Starr has as a private law client the selfsame Wang Jun.
Also, Starr is the unregistered foreign lobbyist for the Red Chinese
Government, thus Starr being himself subject to Federal Prison.

The American CIA as well as the super-secret Division Five, Counter-
Intelligence of FBI have long been aware of all this and have covered it up.

--Such as that Bill Clinton has pledged to uphold the tenets of the Cecil
Rhodes Trust that sent him to Oxford. Seldom mentioned is that the Rhodes
Trust is dedicated to overthrowing the American Government and reverting this
continent and land mass to again being a British Monarchy colony. Clinton's
oath to the Rhodes Trust is in direct opposition to his oath as US President:

"I do solemnly swear ( or affirm ) that I will faithfully execute the Office of
President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve,
protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States." US Constitution,
Article II, Section 1.
( Emphasis added. )

In pledging to support the Rhodes Trust and the British monarchy's purposes
for the US, Clinton has violated:

"NO Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person
holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall without the Consent of
Congress, except of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind
whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State." US Constitution, Article
I, Section 9. ( Emphasis added. )

By the way, in 1991, at the close of the Persian Gulf War, President Bush
accepted $30 million in gifts from the Emir of Kuwait; General Colin Powell
accepted $10 million of jewels from the Emir of Kuwait; General Schwartzkopf
accepted $15 million of gold form the Emir Kuwait. All in violation Article I,
Section 9, and while knowing that the US troops were subjected to certain
chemicals and Iraqi poison gas resulting in the "Gulf War Syndrome" deaths,
injuries, and disabilities, and such illnesses passed along to the wives
children of US military that served in that War. ( The poison gas ingredients
were by a US unit of a French firm, owned in part by Bush, and Hillary
Clinton, a director. )

--Such as, foreign secret police, some right in the White House, are operating
on US soil to damage or murder, or arrange to murder, US citizens; all done
with immunity from US authorities and without restraint or punishment by US
authorities. Among those would have to be included Rahm Emanuel, who while
Senior Advisor to President Clinton, had his desk closest to the Oval Office.
Having dual citizenship, US and Israel, Rahm Emanuel is, in effect, the deputy
director of Israeli intelligence, the Mossad, for North America. Rahm Emanuel
is Clinton's link to the dope proceeds disguised as soybean and currency
trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and
the Chicago Board Options Exchange.---Funds that paid, in part, for Clinton's
two campaigns for President.

Described by some by some as simply a two-faced gangster, Rahm Emanuel
reportedly worked both sides, bringing out Clinton's propensity as a sexual
predator while purporting to be an outspoken Clinton loyalist at the same

That some of these foreign secret police, operating with immunity in the US,
are stealing US financial and industrial secrets ( such as the French CIA ) , and
assassinating eyewitnesses to treason by Clinton and other branches of the US
government; with the complicity of some member of Congress, such as Cong.
Henry Hyde who in violation of the US Constitution's mandate of Separation of
Powers, is also the head of CIA's "black budget" with more actual authority
than the Director of Central Intelligence.

According to a previous exclusive story by this writer, Hyde has reportedly
been in the illegal gun silencer business supplying, among others, foreign
secret police teams engaging in murders throughout the US.

Some consider the Federal Reserve as an on-going private and sinister
enterprise, deciding by their actions how wars will be financed---they were
set up to have the US finance Europe's World War One and to force US entry
into the same---and when and how Depressions will enable the ultra-rich to
gobble up smaller fish.

The mainstream press, riddled with key people who are members of secret
societies in opposition to the US Constitution and the American Republic, are
in no position to report such items as the Federal Reserve ordering the US
Congress what to do with servant of the US people, the President, and what to
do with him as a treasonous Commander-in-Chief, subject to being arrested by
the US Military pursuant to the Military Code.

Perhaps the biggest secret of all is that William Jefferson Clinton and
Hillary Rodham Clinton are closet Republicans by their actions causing the
destruction of the Democratic Party and making the US a weakened, discredited,
one-party system paving the way for a Hitler-like dictatorship.

Hound your local newsfakers. Demand, if that is possible, that they tell the

Stay Tuned.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:36 - ID#413109)
That's OK, you just go
about your business, and don't pay any
attention to me. I just throw out my ideas
at random, FWIW, and those that care to can
use what they wish.

1- Near term, and I'm a long termer-"life", I'm
looking at charts, and see many of the golds, in-
cluding the XAU, should correct from these levels.
So if of a mind to do some buying, look for better
levels to enter.

2 Mike Sheller- Your contact with those moving objects
in the heavens, and your interpretations of them, seem
to work. I have followed several of them over a period
of time, and your batting average, is well above 300.
This comparison to baseball players, not percentages.
His latest call CRK and EEC, great!!However let me caution
others, interested to enter, I am not happy with low volume
stocks, like EEC. However that having been said, it could
be even more volatile, but I've had some bad experiences
with low volume babies.

3- I follow the charts on others, such as currencies, and I
am expecting the long term for the $ to be down, but also
intermediate term UP.

4- Cherokee's babies, are beginning to mature. I watch Wheat,Oats,
Soybeans, as well as Crude OIL, and they, IMHO, are turning in
a new long term direction. So on any back off, they look like a
great long term buy.

Cherokee, what does one buy in a commodity, like those mentioned
especially the grains, if one is not in the commodity itself?
Are there such things as leaps, or long term calls?

5- The markets, as I've said before look up to me. That does not
mean straight up!!

For those that follow my reads on the longer terms pictures, you
haven't done all that badly, except for the PMs, which I had not
expected to correct as far as they had. But then we're all human,
well some are.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:36 - ID#300202)
Carry the Kitco banner high & go fer a clean sweep. Purgin' is gud eh

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:37 - ID#287279)
From Princeton Economics:
"One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person
wished to move money from the stock market into the safefty of a money
market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian ( which of
course everyone does ) , what does that tell you???
It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though
the temprerature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a
lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average
investor,having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near
his pain threshold. Perhaps this will not be true for much longer."

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:40 - ID#37463)
I agree that Puetz should be able to post prophecy, bad or good, without having to take a lot of flack. The thing that is irritating me this week is the Republicans wimping out over the budget and calling it a victory. I am just wondering who the victory is over; probably the victory over common sense. I am flabbergasted that we are giving $18 billion TO the Internalional Monetary Fund to float Japan. That's a lot of money for a temprary fix and at what price? The Republican's if they are going to show any huevos or backbone need to quit worrying about what Clinton and the Democrats are thinking and worrying about the poles which are produced by a bunch of slick liberals and get down to business. This cancer needs to be cut from the body and as soon as possible. As much as I detest the idea of Gore as president, at least we will have expressed o;ur communal repulsion for the low life sleeze which we have "governing" us at this point. So much for my diatribe, its nice to see gold acting like gold again. Hopefully the $18 billion will bring on the inflation that we probably need to prop up the economy and bring our gold back into parity.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:42 - ID#43349)
@grant 19:48
Consider a 25,000 foot tall column of sea ar 39F. Raise it's temperature to 50F and it would be 6.25' taller. At least it would if you could put walls around it and prevent it from expanding in any direction except up.

Does this mean the ocean would be six ffet deeper if it were raised fro 39F to 50F?


Most of the ocean is not 25,000 feet deep, nor does the ocean have walls around it preventing it from spreading in any direction except up.

Water expanded up would spread out over the surface and also farthe up the shore and one would have a much lessened increase in depth.

If the average depth of the ocean was 4000 feet the ocean would be about a foot deeper.

But that is for an eleven degree farenheight increase in temperature.

So increasing the entire ocean's temperature by one degree farenheight would result in an increase in ocean depth of about an inch.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:46 - ID#37463)
In my previous post I made mention that the Republicans should pay less attention to the poles. Obviously those of Polish extraction deserve attention. However, the polls should command less attention. Also if anything else is spelled incorrectly, this post will serve notice that I am having a bit of trouble with the King's English this evening as msot evenings.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:49 - ID#190411)
@Tantalus Rex
It's Friday night on the new superspeed K1.
The weekend is coming up, and it's time for the usual conspiracy theory stuff.
I wonder.......,
If the new found pittance in gold mutual funds ( gold funds are .08% of mutual funds ) isn't related to the obvious shareprice manipulation that we find so obvious.
You do recall that there were many news stories about gold funds being wound up and abandoned in late-July, and throughout August.
The utter dumping of PM shares in the last weeks of August, where the price levels plunged far below the previous lows in late- December of 1997, would give the big money guys a window to crawl through. The few hundred million dollars that it would take to insinuate yourself into the small goldshare market, is a trifle to these sinister forces. ( apologies to left-handers, not the lefties ) .
When your hedge fund is under water to the tune of tens-of-biliions, and the gommint wants to avoid the heartbreak of a crashing paper system, what would you do?
It's not exactly a big deal to keep the gold price suppressed, compared to the consequences to the issuer of the scrip.
I recall something from long ago history texts, about the overextended banks that lent far more than their money reserves. They tried this same manipulation.
My worry, is that they may be able to carry this farce to the point of destruction of our country, and all other countries.
The spectacle of the budget agreement only confirms my opinion of the one-party state. Although, I suppose that is somewhat worse in Canada, Stralia, and New Zealand.
I read that stralia has mandatory voting. I bet that they get a system as good as Kim il Sungs' soon.

I propose that we forget the gun discussion group stuff this weekend, and discuss the potential 3,4,5 + baggers that reside in the utterly neglected Junior Stocks.

Starting with kitkat, why did you buy Greenstone? Are they going to survive? Etc. ad infinitum.
If this dead cat is a Lazarus, let's share some info.

I also urge you to pony up some money to maintain this site. I have written on this before. Don't be freeloaders.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 21:50 - ID#284255)
ERLE & Tantalus Rex & nobody
Manipulating the prices on options.
They have been doing this for years.

Milking the masses.

Perhaps the reason why 90% of all options expire worthless.

I guess it's the name of the game.

Pure profits ( :- ) ) )

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:10 - ID#287358)
I agree with you. I'll match your US$20.00 to maintain this site.
Who's next?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:14 - ID#190411)
OK sharefin,
but, wouldn't it be sweet to find the trading records of the putsy-callsy crowd? Who pushed PlacerDome up 4.8% and pushed down Homestake 6.38%? I am saying to the Kitco traders, that, this is not something to be ignored. If a trader would compile the info and stock prices prior to expiry, we kitcoites could make a bit of money.
I am sure that we are not the ony ones privy to this strategy.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:16 - ID#412172)
What is your outlook for platinum next week??

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:16 - ID#225273)
Thank you for the information!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:21 - ID#190411)
I saw your original post to the effect that you would match the maintainence donation. I am sorry that I was the first that pledged to help Kitco with the expense.

Highrise will do it also. He's a good man.

I would bet that most here will admit that they are flying blind without this site.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:26 - ID#284255)
The Bug
Y2K, Utilities, and the Titanic
Federal Computer Week: Pentagon Says It Will Make Year 2000 Deadlines

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:27 - ID#190411)
I shot off my mouth earlier this year about donating to THE SERVER, and sent 50.00 CDN, which came out to a nice round 35.00US. So you had better send 20.00+35.00=55.00 to help keep this thing up.
I value what you people write, Thanks.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:32 - ID#284255)
There is one trader who attempts to do this.
I'll have to look up his url.

This actually is a trading strategy.

All one has to do is to follow the OI on a stock.
A week before expiry check the levels where the 'Boys' will want to send the stock.

If there is a great enough disparity then you have a trade.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:51 - ID#287358)
OK, my check will be 55.00. That is, unless somebody else wants to
have his 45.00 be worth twice as much to Bart, 'cause with another 45.00 matching, I will send $US100.00. Who will step up?

Chicken man
(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:54 - ID#341297)
Reify @ Question #4
The only thing I know about is buying calls...agree with you that the grains could be a buy soon... going to let the hedge fund thing blow over then buy...hoping a much lower price...patience... takes a ton of it!
options for grains are traded on the Chicago board of trade...they trade one nearby mid term month and one long term month ( 6-7 months )
Try or for quotes...quotes are for the previous session...when you put your pencil to the differant prices you will see that soybeans will give you the biggest bang for your buck...why?...the option basicaly cost the same..same 5000 bu...but if soybeans double in price i.e.$5.00 to $10.00 you have a greater potential gain than if say oats doubles it would go from $1.00 to $2.00....Right Cherokee?

Just a thought...Chicken man...

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:59 - ID#373403)
M3 blowout in September!
1997.10 5274.8
1997.11 5326.3
1997.12 5376.8
1998.01 5423.3
1998.02 5464.1
1998.03 5530.1
1998.04 5580.0
1998.05 5614.3
1998.06 5645.9
1998.07 5651.8
1998.08 5706.9
1998.09 5779.6

(Fri Oct 16 1998 22:59 - ID#26467)
Gold buy point October 29,30 to reach intermediate top 335 second
week November
Platinum October 26 27 will make a four to five week run target still
Silver flat
Bonds a sell October 23
SnP on the side lines next week,buy October 26
Powers to be will probably come with another rate cut to shore
up the banks.
Timespan between the last week of October and second week of
November could become explosive.A major bankfailure?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:00 - ID#390337)
@squirrel mass manias and other delusions (Global Warming)
Rhetorical Question 1: When did the theory of Global Warming ( TGW ) advance to the proof of Global Warming ( PGW ) ? Answer: It never did. However TGW plays an important role in the current liberal agenda. It is a convenient tool to manipulate more legislation which begats more beaurocracy which begats more taxes.

Rhetorical Question 2: When Mt. Pinatubo blew up sending about 4 cubic kilometers of ash, 42 megatons of CO2, and 3 megatons of Cl, in addition to 17 megatons of SO2, where was the global warming from the massive injection of "those evil greenhouse gasses"? Answer: Global temperatures decreased on average 2 degrees Celsius for nearly two years.

So while the vice-eco-president elect Gore places more restrictions on your wood burning stove, your automobile, electrical power generation and makes world wide deals in the name of TGW remember these are the same folks which decry that gold is bad and fiat is good. Imagine the size of the sulfur dioxide scrubber which the EPA would require a corporation which owned Mt. Pinotuba...

Next topic: Why a Gore presidency is good for Platinum Group Metal prices.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:18 - ID#25174)
ERLE, The one party state
In 'Stralia has been in place for the last fifteen years. Only recently have they been been threatened by other upstart parties to strip off the veneer of competition and openly swap preferences to freeze out the usurpers. Essentially, unless a candidate can by themselves gain more than 50 percent they will be torpedoed by either right wing 'Labour' or right wing 'Liberal' party candidates. After the recent election both parties slapped each other on the back and went back to feigning competition, safe in the knowledge that democracy was safe and well. In Australia we do not have a bill of rights type of 'protection', so we dont have to get upset by its violation. Also a twelve hour drive, good metal detector, shovel and boot full of amber fluid will clear out any blues. In addition we have LOTS of places for gold and golf.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:20 - ID#45173)
MissingLink: M3 data with delta qty and %
1997 10 5274.8
1997 11 5326.3 52 0.97%
1997 12 5376.8 51 0.94%
1998 1 5423.3 47 0.86%
1998 2 5464.1 41 0.75%
1998 3 5530.1 66 1.19%
1998 4 5580 50 0.89%
1998 5 5614.3 34 0.61%
1998 6 5645.9 32 0.56%
1998 7 5651.8 5.9 0.10%
1998 8 5706.9 55 0.97%
1998 9 5779.6 73 1.26%

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:21 - ID#34883)
tolerant1/Mike Sheller/DEJ/Bart
tolerant1, Happy Birthday/Namaste

Mike Sheller, always enjoy your posts, especially the ones from the Misesean/Rothbard/Rand perspective.

DEJ: nice post re: Friedman/Rothbard 1929 & liquidity.

BART: thanks for the faster server.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:25 - ID#227290)
The AUX Files?
[Scene is set at a Ramada Inn, Washington, D.C. Field shot of Mulder standing in front of window, intense look, feasting on sunflower seeds.]

Mulder: The truth is out there Scully, somewhere.

[Fade to Scully, sitting on the edge of the bed.]

Scully: We will find your sister, Mulder. One day.

Mulder: My sister? I'm talking about the conspiracy to control the price of gold. I'm talking about the evil, unlawful, treacherous, surreptitious plan formulated in secret by our government to surpress the underlying value of our most precious metal.

Scully: Gold... [she pauses momentarily and reflects] a rare, yellow metallic element, highly malleable and ductile. Symbol: Au., atomic weight 196.967. Traditionally a prized and cherished possession. [Pan to Mulder]

Mulder: Especially in times of economic unrest.

Scully: What's your point Mulder?

Mulder: My point is this. Given all the economic uncertainty our country and others have endured this year, what would you estimate to be the fair value for an ounce of gold?

[Pan to Scully. Pulling out her scientific calculator, she proceeds to execute a series of complicated and tedious calculations. After a moment she looks up. She holds a confused look.]

Scully: Mulder, this can't be right... can it?

Mulder: It's right Scully. This is what I've been trying to tell you.

Scully: Yeah, but $43,212.34 an ounce? How is that possible?

Mulder: It's very simple actually. In the late 70's, early 80's, a terrible thing happened to the dynamics of the "system". Gold and silver went up, dramatically and quickly. This was good for inflation bugs, survivalists, gold nerds, all of whom were in their hayday. But it was bad news for the non-believers. Prices went up so fast they never had a chance to get out of their short positions with a profit.

Scully: So? ...

Mulder: So, hedgers who owned gold and silver found themselves in a similar predicament. They sold futures against the physical holdings they were in the process of refining or selling. As prices moved against them, they had to pony up more margin, but there wasn't a comparable increase in the credit they received for holding the physical goods. To make matters worse, many hedgers were holding their inventory in a form that could not be delivered against their short positions.

Scully: [Slowly shaking her head] Total financial ruin. [pauses] But surely you don't believe that could ever happen again.

Mulder: Not if our government or others like it have any say. [Mulder turns to Scully, places his hands on her face, smushing her cheeks together] In the name of God, Scully, buy gold! Find as much as you can. The end is near. The truth is out there!

Somewhere in a Washington parking garage an envelope is delivered. The man steps into the shadows and lights a cigarette.

[Music cue] do do do do do do ... do do do do do do ... do do do do do do ... do do do do do do ... [Music fades]

The End ( or is it? )

*Authur Note* This represents that either I have no life, or I seriously need a hobby. Portions of this were taken from "The Education of a Speculator" by Victor Niederhoffer. If you like to learn and you like to read, this book is well worth your time and money.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:25 - ID#45173)
The bears have been "proven" wrong. Everything is fine. The world is not coming to and end
Everyone can go back to whatever they were doing before the press got all excited about the global financial system. False alarm.

The makings of the perfect suckers' rally. Mike Sheller is probably correct. The market may head into the 9000s again before the next big event occurs.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:29 - ID#37463)
Very nice effort. Being an X-Files junky myself I quite liked your offering. I have a Skully photo book gracing my law office coffee table.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:32 - ID#390337)
I knew it. I knew it was those RockefRothschTriLaterBilderSomBtches with the fancy suits behind all of this gold stuck in the doldrums price fixing.

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:48 - ID#237299)
Prztula_A: Fine..just fine...but what about the bees?

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:50 - ID#401460)

Thank you, for the compliment. I was just passing through when I saw your post.

When you consider what we have invested in PM's and what a great aid this site is for monitoring our investments, a small anti up to help defer cost would be appropriate.

Sure I will kick in, what is the address?

Not only have I learned a lot from the great minds here at Kitco, I, like others, have found support and comfort being among friends and fellow PM investors, while we have had the snot beat out of our portfolios.

I do want to thank Bart for providing this site and for putting up with my e-mail and criticism placed here. His response this time is better than ever.


(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:52 - ID#284255)
Constipated ? ...try a fed cut
WASHINGTON, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - As world financial markets on Friday feted the second cut in U.S. interest rates in less than three weeks, pressure mounted on other central banks to follow the U.S. lead and help cure the global economy's woes. Eager to throw the world financial system a lifeline, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday ordered a surprise quarter-percentage-point cut in the central bank's two headline rates to ease a looming credit crunch that he feared could kill the seven-and-a-half-year-old U.S. expansion. The first rate cut administered between the Fed's regularly scheduled policy meetings since April 1994 sent official U.S. interest rates to their lowest level in four years and sparked a rally in stock and bond markets around the globe. But analysts said the Fed's move alone was unlikely to do the trick unless other top economies, particularly those in Europe, contributed their bit to world stability and growth. ``The Fed was looking at financial markets and concluded they're constipated,'' said Joel Prakken of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. ``They administered a laxative of sorts. If it doesn't work, you'll have to up the dosage.''

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:53 - ID#31868)
FOR Lady Colleen...Love back at ya...
Such Kind words...these tears are not about PAIN...THANK YOU!!! I can't catch my breath...THIS Big Dog sends all his Love to You and YOUR Family...YUP!...uh huh...BLESS YOU!!!

(Fri Oct 16 1998 23:54 - ID#25174)
ERLE, Since the government
is in the hands of a few influential investors, and western governments are such strident proponents of free market policies, perhaps a natural progression would be to make them publicly listed companies.
Instead of paying taxes we would be shareholders and elections could be replaced by meetings where the fate of the CEO/Head-of-state would be decided. Substantial shareholders would be a matter of public record and governments can cease using subterfuge to take over foreign countries, simply buying out the shareholder/citizens. War would be reduced to hostile takeovers and asset stripping.
Happy days !