Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Chicken man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:03 - ID#341297)
mole ---Many many THX
I would like to chat more with you at later to go nite-nite.those t-bonds open too early!!

Thx again !!

Chicken man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:06 - ID#25257)
re: Dutchman (BOTTOMS UP)
Does this mean the Noles will change their colors to Gold And Golder?
Will Joe Pa ever come back to Florida?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:06 - ID#237299)
Chicken Man: I still think you're missing the basic point.
There would never be a situation in which you would want to exercise an option which was out of the money. If there was a shortage, the market would instantly adjust to reflect that fact, and the price of the underlying would race ahead; hence it wouldn't be out of the money. The other thing that would occur is the price of the options would suddenly become lopsided, with huge premiums temporarily offered for the calls. If the shortage became so severe that delivery was impossible the options clearing houses would suspend trading; hence the option or future would expire worthless, no matter how much in the money it was. They can do that you know. As to the other fellow's question, yes: if the assigned party becomes insolvent the contract would be worthless. In the end of the world scenario you are envisioning this would probably happen a lot.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:08 - ID#350194)
Some Reasons for Gold Silver run-up of '79-80
Can be found in my: Sun Oct 18 1998 23:45. Now can anyone direct me to APH's latest technical musings on Silver and Gold's probable support and resistance points? No? Well maybe in the morn. Night All.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:09 - ID#401460)
News Blackout?

Gold down now so it can go up later today, right?
Good Night All


(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:10 - ID#293184)
Mooney, APH
Also the real trigger was Russia invading Afghanistan........that is when
the real big speculators started buying gold ( overnight, U.S. speculators
bought gold from Hong Kong )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:17 - ID#306150)
Thanks messy - I knew I forgot something, get slow at this time of night. CUL8R

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:17 - ID#243420)
This is posted in honor of Mozel
I found the following item on the FreeRepublic website:

Durand's Website
1861 Linkum

William Seward likewise boasted:

"...I can touch the bell at my right hand and order the arrest of a man in Ohio; I can again touch the bell and order the arrest of a man in New York, and no power on earth save that of the President can release them."

It was this unlimited martial power which was felt by Lincoln's political dissenters in the North after he had suspended Habeas Corpus there on 19 August 1863 and pronounced all Northern Democrats ( Copperheads ) to be "suspects." This single act resulted in the arbitrary arrest and imprisonment of an estimated 38,000 political prisoners, "to prevent, rather than to punish treason. Lincoln's primary complaints against constitutional civil courts were that such courts "are organized for trials on charges of crimes well defined by law," and "a jury of the civil courts too frequently has at least one member more ready to hang a panel than to hang the traitor." He did not wish to burden his Administration with Grand Jury indictments or with Due Process, as required by the Fifth Amendment, nor did he wish to restrict his jurisdiction and power to convict to "crimes well defined by law." Having established himself as a military dictator, Lincoln naturally favored the summary court-martial proceedings against civilians which were the immediate consequence of a suspension of Habeas Corpus, for, such proceedings "are not based on the written law," and such courts are "not to be bound... by common-law rules," and are "in great degree devoid of the technicalities which characterize the proceedings of ordinary courts." Daniel Webster had pointed out a generation before Lincoln's ascension to power that "military courts are organized to convict," and they may do so on the most frivolous of pretenses, if any pretense at all.

In a response to a mass meeting of Democrats in Albany, New York, Lincoln justified his actions as follows:

The suspension of the habeas corpus was for the purpose that men may be arrested and held in prison who cannot be proved guilty of any defined crime.

Arrests are not made so much for what has been done as for what possibly might be done. The man who stands by and says nothing when the peril of his Government is discussed cannot be misunderstood. If not hindered he is sure to help the enemy.

Much more, if a man talks ambiguously, talks with "buts" and "ifs" and "ands" he cannot be misunderstood. If not hindered this man will actively commit treason. Arbitrary arrests are not made for the treason defined in the Constitution, but to prevent treason.

In other words, any man who did not openly pledge his allegiance to the Lincoln Administration and its unjustifiable war against the Southern people and its usurpation of the rights of the Northern people, was guilty of this newly defined "treason" and subject to arrest without warrant and imprisonment without trial. Oddly enough, one of the men so arrested by Lincoln's minions was Francis Key Howard, the editor of the Baltimore Exchange and grandson of the author of the national anthem, who described his imprisonment at Fort McHenry in the following words:

When I looked out in the morning, I could not help being struck by an odd and not pleasant coincidence. On that day forty-seven years before my grandfather, Mr. F.S. Key, then prisoner on a British ship, had witnessed the bombardment of Fort McHenry. When on the following morning the hostile fleet drew off, defeated, he wrote the song so long popular throughout the country, the Star-Spangled Banner. As I stood upon the very scene of that conflict, I could not but contrast my position with his, forty-seven years before. The flag which he had then so proudly hailed, I saw waving at the same place over the victims of as vulgar and brutal a despotism as modern times have witnessed.

As pointed out by General Benjamin Butler in his book, "The Lincoln Government was rarely aided, but was usually impeded by the decisions of the Supreme Court," and therefore one of the reasons Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus, was "to relieve himself of the rulings of the court." The eminent and aged Chief Justice Roger Taney himself was threatened with imprisonment when he declared that "the president has exercised a power which he does not possess under the constitution," but was saved from such an intolerable fate only by his death. Justice Benjamin R. Curtis' liberty was also imperilled when he wrote in his 1862 pamphlet entitled Executive Power:

"The President has made himself a legislator. He has enacted penal laws governing citizens of the United States. He has superadded to his rights as commander the power of a usurper. He has established a military despotism. He can now use the authority he has assumed to make himself master of our lives, our liberties, our properties, with power to delegate his mastership to such satraps as he may select."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:24 - ID#228128)
Oldman's comments
Somebody asked about what Oldman was thinking. Below are some comments from this evening. Hope he doesn't mind.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:24PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
helium: I'm making an unqualified call for new highs befor the low of 10/8/98 breaks. Long term I remain a super bear, but not as long as Klinton/Rubin hold the power. The call is based on what the market is saying to me. Next dip is a great buy, IMO.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:57PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
mike: bought crude Thursday. Think stocks and commods will go up together for a while.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:26 - ID#285392)
APH -- Apart from the excellant information you provide so unselfishly.
It is interesting to hear a little of your interesting background I would like to hear more.. The most revealing part was the sensitivity and humanity that you have just disclosed through your feelings for former clients. I knew that you were a special person by virtue of your assistance to us. Your statments tonight proved this beyond any doubt. The world need more of people like you!


(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:27 - ID#386245)
Aussie share market... exciting as watching paint dry.
Might as well stay closed on Monday to see what everyone else is gonna do first.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:36 - ID#290202)
I missed it too. ( OJ run ) Too busy w/business and dreams of gold.
( we nailed it last year tho' mate, and we shall year? )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:42 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom, here is another piece of humor:

Spot gold to hit $303 this week...
just certified vodka/pickle test results....

Also, check your e-mail sometime Tuesday, you should
find some info on good deals on know, brother...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 00:55 - ID#268260)
The Nole will lose their gold to the beauty of JoePa's smile when he next visits the Sunshine State. JoePa is buying the precious hand over fist, knowing that he will earn great sums of money to give to the PSU library. All hail JoePa. Down with the Noles.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 01:21 - ID#384350)
Chicken man - money market rates
money market rates are derived from the interest paid on bonds. Most of them roll over various maturities of treasuries, plus they invest in corporate bonds as well which pay higher interest rates than Treasuries. I suppose the bonds in question are mostly rated AAA. I believe this to be correct, but I could be mistaken. I suppose that many different money-market funds vary somewhat as to their composition as well.

I wonder if these kinds of accounts are guaranteed by some govt insurance plan. I know in the US there is FDIC for Saving Accounts in the US, but what about money sitting in a brokerage account earning money-market rates. Are these monies guaranteed by Federal govt insurance as well?

It's something to look into.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 01:22 - ID#31876)
We all know this, but it's nice to read it in print -- Fear Factor Could Lead to a Gold Rush

(Mon Oct 19 1998 01:41 - ID#25490)
Got Sandbags?
Too many holes in the Dyke and not enough fingers, says Camdessus:

"We're in a liquidity crisis and the hopes of seeing a 1999 better than 1998 are crumbling, unless the international community gives itself the
means to step in in place of the banks."

What we need is ANOTHER Dam.

Damn the dams, eh, mesdames?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:04 - ID#257312)
Overnight Globex

S&P does not share Japan's and Singapore's optimistic outlook. Yen up solidly. And Gold off .40 ( of course ) .

(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:10 - ID#284255)
Why do I think gold could go lower?
Who owns most of the gold - the banks.

Now if we have this widely touted financial meltdown?
Who is going to lose lots of money - the banks?
Massive derivative positions?

Now what will they have left, of value, to pay off their losing positions?


Seems like it's like the housing market.
When everyone's selling, what does the price do?
Keeps on falling.

I'm just surmising that if there is a global world financial crash,
Then there's going to be lots of re-adjusting to be done.
Debts to be paid off, etc.

What would happen in a finacial meltdown?
Who knows, we haven't really got historical data.
There is the study of '29.
But then in those days they didn't have a derivative market worth many trillions.

If 50% of the banks went belly up and had to sell off their gold?
Who would be in a position to buy it?
Wouldn't the other 50% of the banks be in to broke a position to have the funds to purchase it all.

Just wondering aloud???

Lan Man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:14 - ID#320108)
October 18, 1998

Gold Bullion Coins Now Subsidized?

By Scott Olmsted

Had a chat with my old friend Burt Blumert of Camino Coin about the gold bullion market. Burt notes that the premiums of most bullion coins have risen substantially over the price of gold: St. Gaudens have risen over the past year from $450 to $480 while the price of gold has fallen; British sovereigns ( slightly under 1/4 ounce of gold ) used to cost him about $1 over melt, now they cost him $9 over melt, a 12-15% premium; other European gold bullion coins now carry 6-8% premiums over their gold content.

Silver has gone even crazier. A bag of junk silver was available at spot in May, about $3500, meaning no premium over the value of the silver contained; now a bag is $4400 and silver itself hasn't changed. Clearly, the demand from Y2K preparers has pushed up junk silver. Like other supplies, such as dehydrated food, there is only so much junk silver to be had. Much has been melted over the years and with the price of silver low for long periods, the market in it has grown thin.

I think the same thing is happening to gold. Enough people are buying British sovereigns to push their premium up. The price of gold is unaffected because it is determined in a different market. In that market central banks have been selling thousands of tons of gold. The Y2K demand has not made an impact. What it has done is put the US Mint on double shifts producing American one ounce golden eagles. That's where your bargain is right now: US Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs, both sold at a small premium over gold content. I just bought some more Eagles for $311 apiece when gold was about $296.50; you do the math. Burt calls this price "subsidized" because the US Mint is not recognizing the premium that bullion coins are fetching elsewhere in the world.

The price of gold is manipulated by central government sales and loans of their stocks. I'm not alone in believing that the price is being held artificially low by these actions and that someday, perhaps in the near future, we will see much higher prices.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:15 - ID#384350)
European CB's seen secretly intervening to stop dollar plunge
For those who didn't see my Sun. AM summary:

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 05:28
Gianni Dioro ( The Sunday Times ( London ) says European Central Banks Intervened to Support $ )

Lan Man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:29 - ID#320108)
@From Lelands Fear Factor Article
"Never in the last decade ( or more ) has the potential for an uprating of the risk premium on paper investment been greater," said Mr Andy Smith, commodities analyst with Mitsui Global Precious Metals, London.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:34 - ID#257312)
sharefin 02:10

Thought I'd take a shot at it. Assumptions ( figures may be debatable, but are in the ball park ) -- CBs hold 30,000 tons of Gold @ $300 per ounce. This is roughly 300 billion $US. Seeing as how LTCM managed to leverage about 10 billionUS$ into positions worth 100s of billions, is it reasonable to assume that the leased Gold has been similarly leveraged? In other words, maybe the banks don't really "own" that Gold since it has already been bet by leasors/hedgers in a high stakes poker game.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:36 - ID#350145)
feds put floor under gold?
wayne angel, former fed, said feds put a floor under gold. it would seem to make sense to me both from supporting commodity producers ( kind of like farm supports ) , but also because it would give some sense of normalcy to the scary world financial situation, and it would be cheap for them to do ( compared to supporting currency ) .if that is true, we have seen the bottom.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 02:54 - ID#341227) of my favorite gold pessimists at KITCO...
Sharefin states....

Who owns most of the gold - the banks.

Now if we have this widely touted financial meltdown?
Who is going to lose lots of money - the banks?
Massive derivative positions?

Now what will they have left, of value, to pay off their losing positions?



Farfel says...

Yes, it's true central banks hold most of the gold. Moreover, the deflationary thesis postulates that pure, rapid global deflation would force sales of assets to reduce debt.

HOWEVER, deflation, IF IT TRIGGERS GLOBAL CURRENCY UNREST, need not result in the sale of gold. Such currency unrest created by purely deflationary conditions would likely transmute into stagflation. In this economic condition, we would see a flight from floating currencies into a "stable currency" possessing intrinsic value, namely gold.

In other words, each central bank, faced with rapid depreciation of their currency and alternative unstable national currencies, would probably be MORE disposed to BUY gold in such tumultuous economic circumstances.

Moreover, a mad rush of millions of individuals suddely impelled to purchase gold ( owing to tanking bonds, stocks, and native currencies ) would more than compensate for those Central banks choosing to liquidate gold.

Sharefin, I would humbly submit that your thesis on gold liquidation is one that considers the first result without considering its corollary.

If you recall, many, many months ago, you postulated that a tanking DOW & NASDAQ would result in liquidation of gold stocks. As you discovered, this thesis proved to be invalid. As you know, the exact opposite happened from late August through the end of September. A small portion of Baby Boomers abandoning general equities targeted their monies into gold stocks which have been the best performers...and I imagine we ain't seen nothing yet.

In summary, I would suggest that your thesis that a collapsing global economy would result in mass gold liquidation is very much unlikely. If anything, I think we would witness the same scenario as we witnessed with gold stocks early this fall. Purchases rather than liquidation. In such economic turmoil, CB will compete against CB to PURCHASE gold...and the CB's themselves will compete against millions of individuals desperately abandoning the bonds that failed to provide safe haven in such economic turmoil. Those CB's ending up with the largest gold holdings will be in the best wealth position when a new global economic system is reinvented from the ashes of the contemporary floating currency system.



Lan Man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:09 - ID#320108)
@The Sheeple by Drudge

In recent months an absolute epidemic of all-knowing has hit media pundits of all ranks!With events in Washington, DC lighting up talkradio lines and soundstages across the dials, never before have so many professed to be speaking for so many. The phrase "The American people..." [usually followed by "believe", "have decided", "want", or "understand"] has become the chant of the channels.

"The American people have thought about this long and hard," barked George Stephanopoulos on ABC. "The American people do want all of those things, except in moderation," smarted Cokie Roberts. "The American people would actually like some sort of HMO reform." "The American people have said, yes, that's perjury," declared Sam Donaldson.

"I give the American people a great deal of credit... If the American people thought it out your way...

[And that was all just in the spread of few minutes!]

In fact, a DRUDGE REPORT crunch of all words spoken during this weekend's

five national Sunday morning programs reveals that the phrase "The American people" was used 38 times!

Top know-it-all went to outgoing White House Rahm Emanuel, appearing on CBS'FACE THE NATION:

"The American people have lost faith in this process..."

"The American people and their needs..."

"The American people have seen..."

"It is about the concerns of the American people."


"The American People" total usage by hosts, sidekicks and guests:


ABC's WEEK: 10

CNN's LATE: 06



Throw in programs rotating on MSNBCFOXNEWSCNBCCSPAN this weekend and there were literally hundreds of outbreaks of "The American people..."

Not one for "The American Sheeple!"

[They save that for the green rooms.]

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:11 - ID#22584)
Mooney & APH
Mooney - go to Sunday October 19th 16.41 for latest APH advice. In fact, I'll post it for you.

Date: Sun Oct 18 1998 16:41
APH ( Trading ( Mooney you should be interested ) ) ID#255226:
New lows in Gold? On the fence, 50/50 chance. Sell Dec Gold above 304 stop 307, gold will test the top of the down channel before going higher, reverse or buy under 290 stop 287. Dec Silver sell at 5.00 stop 5.05, buy or reverse at 4.40 no stop. Dec Snp sell above 1082, not sure what reasonable stop is anymore.
Arch Crawford sold the snP on Thurday at 1035 with a 1041 or 1042 stop. His stop was filled at 1071.

In 1979 there were some similarities to today, as well as the many reasons posted by Mooney. The Soviets were making inroads all over the world. I ( and a lot of others ) felt that the US government under Carter was close to collapse and there was a major undercurrent of survivalism, although nowhere near as much as with the Y2K scare. After reading Howard Ruff, I decided to look into investing in PM's. There was a man named James Sibbett who had a weekly newsletter called "Let's talk silver and gold" and I subscribed to it. Sibbett called the short squeeze in silver way before it happened.

I did not have enough money to go into futures so I started buying contracts on Krugerrands on margin. One of the firms that I invested with was Monex. My experience with them was neither good nor bad and, by the time the market took off, I was invested with a firm in Dallas whose name escapes me. I must admit that, with my naivety in those days, I'm surprised that I didn't lose everythig I had and a lot more besides.

Of course there was no internet and the only way I could get quotes was by calling the brokerage ( they didn't much like that ) or from a financial cable TV station from LA whose name I also can't remember. They showed delayed commodities quotes sporadically throughout the morning. It was all pretty stressful.

In due time I was $25K ahead on a $6K investment. As I remember the big crash came on a Tuesday. On the Monday when the market started to teeter I spent the day driving to and from LA ( I was living in San Diego at the time ) and did not follow the market at all. Had I done so I might have had the sense to get out. Or maybe not.The next day, almost before I knew what was happening, I found myself $10,000 down from the previous day. My broker called at 7pm that night. That was from Texas so you can imagine he was in his office until 9pm doing margin calls. I sold all my contracts. I was way ahead but the shock of dropping $10K in one day affected me for a very long time. I can only guess what it must have been like for those who were much more heavily invested than me. Soon after that I quit investing in PM's. Sibett, however, remained a fanatic bull and I finally let my subscription run out.

I did not even look at markets until summer of 1997. ( yes, that's right...Ken Roberts course, now long consigned to my garbage can ) . I stumbled on Vronsky's web site, started reading the commentary and thought to we go again.....

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:35 - ID#386245)
Lan Man--"Ahh just wanna get back to mah work, fer the Amerkan sheeple...err...people."
Auracious...Just how do I go about buying sandbag futures??
You have no idea how relieved I feel to be one property short and cash long at the moment ( especially with Aussie plastic going up ) . I know your area has suffered badly from the Asian contagion. Was there a bubble in property prices as well?? Do you remember the oil crisis of '74? People in Houston and other oil areas were walking away from mortgages that exceeded property values. We are all over-housed to buggery. I mean--you gotta keep the rain off your head, but the solid gold taps in the lou are a bit much.
Auric--Y2K should end the hospital bed shortage. You know, when all the pacemakers and dialysis machines stop working. I'm thinking of buying 'undertaker futures'.

Cheers, Nick.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:45 - ID#284255)
My comments certainly weren't a thesis.
I don't have a doctorate. ^o-o^

You forgot!
That what I was surmising,
Is what would happen,
If 50% of the banks went under,
Due to derivatives?

If this were to happen,
Where would the other banks,
Get the neccesary moola,
To buy all the gold
That the other failed banks
Had to sell?

Of course they could just print more money
And extend this debt boom even further???

The collary is you never built your comments around mine. ^o-o^

As to gold shares falling
When the Dow tanks?

What happened to gold stock prices last October?
Go and have a look!!!

And honestly we haven't seen a Dow crash as yet.
Wait and see if gold stocks go down when the Dow falls 20% in one day.

As to what has happened of late with gold shares.
To me it is rotation out of high flying shares into way underpriced gold shares.
Selling high and buying low.

As yet there is no gold bull.
Check out the physical gold price.

Investors are hedging their profits - smart move!
Rotating profits out of the last bull into the next coming bull.

I do believe that gold is going to go on a massive bull run.
But not untill the coming bleeding has been absorbed.

If there is a financial meltdown of the magnitude?
That wipes out, say $20 trillion of the estimated $30 trillion global equities markets.

Then I would expect that the derivatives markets, open position, of in excess of $100 trillion, will absolutely devastate the global banking system.

If this ended up blowing away $120 trillion in notional money.
Then this world will be a totally different place.

Your speculations would be hot air blowing on the breeze.

This is the speculation on which I was surmising gold going to new lows.

I do think that this is very possible if we get a meltdown.
If the masters can hold off this from happening?
Then obviously my comments would bear no weight.

I did state my thoughts in a context of "if" we get a meltdown!!!!
Not if all stays quiet and calm.

If you care to listen to the "world's experts" on financial policy?
This meltdown is what they are saying we are on the brink of.

Now if you read these comments based on the scenario I have described.
What do you think would happen.

Remember my scenario was for 50% of banks to fail and the other 50% of banks to be basically broke.

It was not based on your rhetoric.^o-o^

A very interesting comment.

No one really is privy to all these massive positions.
Which have no real reality tied to them.
Who actually controls what ammount??

It's like the current banking system.
There just isn't as much money in exhistance.
Compared to the ammounts which people claim to have.

When the books are balanced,
Many will be in for an awesome shock.

Looking at these two charts make one think that by the time the balancing/accounting has been done.
Many will not have so much left.

And the sheeple will have been shorn.

All that's missing is the implossion.
And according to the experts,
It's only just around the corner.

And soon to be followed by Y2k.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:53 - ID#25490)
5 & 10 oz Gold Bars unavailable hereabouts won't be supplied this week from Stralia. Gold kiwis still easily available for premium.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:58 - ID#284255)
Thanks matey.
I too, will be ever so greatfull when it's all sold and done.
We have totally missed out on the property boom up here.

Six years ago I had over a million$ in property in Cairns.
And I can honestly say I have made nothing.

Ah, if only I had put that money into NAB.
I have jokingly said for a long time now that gold will not take off untill I'm aboard.
With 3 down and this last one to go,
Perhaps I will be right...

I do hope to be out of debt and well into gold when this bull finds it's true legs.

Had a great photo spread in the local Cairns rag.
Full front page and another full page on #4
Saturday was wet and miserable but we had over 35 couples wandering through our home, ohhing and ahhhing.

Here's hoping it sells real soon.
So this long awaited bull can begin in ernest.
With moi onboard.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 03:59 - ID#252391)
To John Disney
Harmony's earnings are supposed to be released today. If you hear anything please let us know.

To bad they aren't coming out on a day when the gold price is rising.
Seems since no other shoes dropped over the weekend Gold is shying away from $300.

Seems Bill Murphy's Japanese and Chinese buyers arn't in too much of a hurry, either - lots of this stuff around.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 04:01 - ID#316193)
John Crudele -- RETAILERS are so afraid of the upcoming Christmas
season that many of them are already trying to work out
deals with their creditors, especially with manufacurers
that supply them with the products that consumers will
probably ignore anyway."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 04:10 - ID#257312)
Nick @ Canbury

Might want to consider some lumber contracts, mate. The largest casket company in the US is located in Batesville, Indiana. Folks are just dying to get their product.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 04:11 - ID#386245)
Aloha nui loa.
Enjoyed your story.
I used to follow a newsletter writer ( whose name escapes me at the moment--I tend to block out bad memories ) . His newsletter arrived every month with a picture of him standing in front of a Rolls Royce. I made a bit and lost a bit following his advice. Then came the BUY of the century!! Precious and semi-precious stones ( saphires,aquamarine,topaz, lapis-lazuli etc. ) . My mate and I used to share the newsletter. We were going to make a FORTUNE!!! My mate put in 20K and for some reason or other I chickened out. My bs detector was in overdrive when I read that the advisor was also the principal selling the stones. Well, to cut a long story short, my mate took his '20K' worth of stones to a jeweller for valuation and was 'mildly' surprised to get a figure of $1500!! The newsletter writer went out of business shortly thereafter and retired to his villa in Switzerland?

Simple question. If anyone is so damned good at investing, why does he/she have to write a newsletter??? I know, there are good ones around, like my mate Bill Buckler up north. For the majority, however, my question stands.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 04:56 - ID#284255)
Where's the follow through???

Surely after the Dow begins it's next upleg
You would expect some follow-through.

I mean at least 4 or 5 days up in a row.

Where's the rampant bullishness?
That these markets exuded a few months back?

I guess the times they are a changing^o-o^

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:03 - ID#252391)
Bears back in charge
Silver off 6 cents - PT off $4 - gold of $1.30 - dollar weaker - S&P off 200-300 points. Yen 114.27 Neiki up 2% HK down 1%.

What does it take?????

$296 gold basis December may get tested in NY - bearish technicals will ensue if it goes.

Oh well, its only Monday.......

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:14 - ID#333126)
calculating the equilibrium temp of a golf ball in space
i ) take it from me that the power put out by the sun at a distance of roughly the distance that Earth is away from the Sun is about 1400 Watts per square meter. assume golf ball is a "black body" ( sure, it's really white, but this oughtta make it cooler than the calculated value... )

ii ) using Stefan's Law ( derived from black body radiation, check link below ) , put P=1400, that squiggly sigma thing as the value given and T as the temperature in Kelvin.

iii ) punch in scientific calculator to calculate T.

answer: 280K. give or take a little.

that translates, not surprisingly to 7 degrees C. nowhere near 100F or 245F or whatever other stupid figures were quoted here not too long ago.

can we move on from this stupid topic now, mozel?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:20 - ID#252391)
Banking reform legislation in Japan which requires voluntary accontability and acceptance of public money by admitting debt problems and loosing face may be get little accomplished. But that's just the next wall of worry.

Frankly, as a group I think we have to admit we missed the trade of liquidating gold longs on the shot up to 88 on the XAU which directly coincided with the bottoming of the S&P around 920.

Whether it's CB intervention or deflationary disinvestment the drop in gold based in DMs, SFs, FFs, Yen, even the Australian dollar is pretty chilling to the gold case. While there is talk of why it should why it would and why it will gold is not performin. The 4::1 "gold has seen its bottom" pole conducted here earlier smackes of excessive bullishness. If we slice through 296, $290 will be right behind. On the other hand stocks seem to be bucking there bad news, flying on good news. Personnally, this fact coupled with the good recovery being seen in such markets as Thailand, Singapore, and the Philipines gives me confidence that maybe the worst of this crisis has been seen and that further dropping shoes will provide the opportunity to shift over to traditional equities.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:36 - ID#252391)
XAU and the S&P^XAU&d=3ms

The comparitive chart shows the S&P and the XAU. The XAU will soon be below its 200 day moving average should it fall 3-4 points. The S&P is right at its 200 day. Tight money policy in Europe is going to keep the lid on gold on that continent. We get past the feared month of October and the associated tax selling of funds, and money is going to come roaring back into traditional equties. It'll be back to buying the dips in stocks while the XAU falls back to the low 60s and gold to $270, PERHAPS before a run in the new year. But this eventuality has been well advertised and I'm getting as suspicious of it as all the other dashed expectations have left me.

Watch Clinton get off the hook and we'll see...
DOW 10,000 before gold 315.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:37 - ID#333126)
golf ball addendum
oops. sorry. forgot to add that, in the calculations below, you've got to put in the surface area of that golf ball... ( go figure, if you can't calculate this... well ... maybe you need a maths textbook as well as a physics one )

solve for temperature where incoming power=outgoing power.


Steve in TO
(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:41 - ID#287337)
Nick - why would anyone who is a good investor . . .
write a newsletter? That's a good question. There are many people, like Bill Buckler, who have special insights and who love to teach and communicate. There are a few- very few who are successful investors, but who have the markets in their blood and need to write about them as well as spend time managing investments. Adrian Day, who manages a successful fund, comes to mind.

One fellow I've met was wildly successful as an investor and no longer has to work for a living. He's a Catholic fellow though, who feels motivated to help others out, sort of like the mediaeval monks. He doesn't write a newsletter, but provides advice to charities and goes on service missions overseas to provide financial advice. He also gives talks to small investors in which he tells them how to invest well, but also how to be rich in other ways- in the heart.

Anyhow- these types of guy are the exceptions IMHO. As far as the majority goes: you've probably heard the saying "Them as can't do- teach."

It's Caveat Emptor out there.

lefty kiwi
(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:45 - ID#32176)
sharefin re your CB scenario
The CB's will not be broke if they revalue their gold to the new ( we hope ) very high POG that they will need to save their balance sheets .

The CB's will be the Goldbugs friend's in the end .....IMHO ... this is the way it will be .

We are now past the 18th Oct SPiral Calendar foci point for gold , but
we need a few more days yet to clear this date and then it should be onwards and upwards for the POG .

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:53 - ID#288115)
Thanks for the advice, I tried it but when I paste into my graphics program I lose some of the chart, looks like it's been peppered with rat shot. I'm thinking I just need to get more RAM.

And for any of you all having the same problems I'm having telling people about Y2K here's an article I found mildly interesting.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:57 - ID#252391)
Lefty Kewi
Hope you are right!!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 05:59 - ID#333126)
US personal savings rates

note the trend

btw, the site this came from is well worthy of bookmarking:

Paul Gold
(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:10 - ID#21484)
Mocatta Market Report
The latest ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch Weekly is now available at

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:14 - ID#259400)
Market Comments
Kind of a dull week in the news room this week. The Clintons kept a low profile and nothing of import happened on the national scene. Having said that I want you to hear it here first. I predict Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president in 00. Yup, that's what I said. I have no proof but my gut tells me this is where this is all headed. These two people are the best politicians that have ever reached high public office. They are GOOD. Having said that let's move along to MONEY.
THE DOW: I stand by my original prediction of Dow 9000 and S&P 1150 by early November. I may have to shorten the time frame though. I think we are running out of time. I think the coming week will pretty much see the end of what I call the "Feel Good Rally". This rally makes no logical sense whatever but is sure going to make a lot of people "feel good". By the time the Dow hits 9000 all the rich people will have sold their stocks to all the poor people so that the rich folks will be in money market accounts and all the boomers and the 401-k types will be in stock mutual funds. The mutual funds will be about zero in cash reserves when the market rolls over so that when the selling starts they will have to dump stocks on the market to meet redemptions. It will be ugly when this starts. The Dow will be below 7000 by christmas. That is when the real fun starts. It is estimated that 85% of all the money in the stock market came in after Dow 7000. Below 7000 that means virtually everyone will be under water. That's when the selling will start in earnest. In any event enjoy the next two weeks. I would avoid owning any common stocks at all. Period, end of sentence.
Bonds: We have had two fed rate cuts and I expect two more before the year is over. 4.5% on the long bond is a doable thing by the end of the year and 4% in the first half of next year is in the cards. If this thing collapses you may well see a 2-3% long bond down the road. For now lets stay with a prediction of 4%. 6% 30 year mortgages are coming to a theater near you soon and I predict 5.5% sometime in 99. I would stay away from long term bonds because of the gasoline like volatility but short term bond funds are fine. Better than money market and you pick up a little appreciation.
Gold still has one last down tick in 98 before the fun starts in early 99. I will spare you all the long winded analysis and make my prediction for the XAU. 62-64 by November 7th. 92-94 by Feb 7th. More or less a 50% pick up. I can never get the last 10% on the bottom or the last 10% on the top but I'll settle for 30-35% in 90 days.
Crazy Bill

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:40 - ID#43349)
Since you are solving for incoming power = outgoing power, surface area drops out of the equation. So it doesn't matter whether it's a golf ball or a beach ball.

Actually, to do it right, you need to integrate the incoming flux over the sunside hemisphere as a function of incident angle, and the outgoing flux ( assuming normal to the surface ) over the entire surface. The end result though is approximately the sams except a bit cooler.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:44 - ID#43349)
Globex et al all look pretty mixed with PM's down a bit. No clear direction yet. We'll have to wait till later. I think we'll be watching the bond market closly.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:49 - ID#288466)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:50 - ID#288466)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 06:59 - ID#411271)
Same Old Story- SOS -- overnights are tugging Dec. Gold back under
300 ( still slightly above ) . The heavy thumb has given it the good grace of 2 days uh-huh so that's enough! Fundamentals mean nothing, NOTHING,

technically when a market tags resistance 4 times and loses it is ususually bad news, but perhaps in gold's case it is merely doomed to perpetuate the 295-305 channel until, until when?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:09 - ID#34883)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:18 - ID#45173)
@ravenfire & Leland
Leland, buried in that NY Post story you posted:

"By insisting that Ken Starr testify at the impeachment hearings, the
Democrats have just about guaranteed that the Clinton scandals will
whack the stock market again.

Picture this.

Starr takes his seat and the first question from House Judiciary
Committee Chairman Henry Hyde is: Mr. Starr, why did you have
an FBI agent of yours ask if he ever took Bill Clinton to the hospital
with an overdose?

You read here first and exclusively that Starr is pursuing the drug
angle in his investigation."

ravenfire, thx for the great link.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:18 - ID#365216)
Bloody Monday???????
Predictions: Will we have a Bloody Monday in keeping with the
19 October tradition? I say; let's go for it!!!

Maybe Greenscam's cat will come out of the bag today and drag the
market down with it.

GO Gold; Go Rydex URSA!

That is all.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:19 - ID#288466)
Commodity cycle projections and Elliott Wave Analysis
This is a free two-week trial of the following site:

Permission has been given for others to use my username and password assigned for the free trial period ( write these down for later use )

Username: hixson

Password: thmetal

Daily and weeky cycle projections:

Elliott Wave Analysis, including resistance and support levels:

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:22 - ID#288466)
Change that Elliott Wave URL in preceding post
Here's the current one:

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:33 - ID#45173)
A good occasional re-read; Implies that gold will not rise until there are changes in
government policy that benefit gold, specifically as a shift from anti-inflation/pro-globalization policies to inflationary policies meant to limit domestic umemployment.

Secular Trends in Financial Markets

( snip )

"At each of these turning points, there was a significant change in existing government policies
which resulted from the culmination of economic and political problems which had built up over
time. The result was a paradigm shift which changed the rules of the game for the economy and
for financial markets. Governments began favoring inflation over unemployment, controlling the
money supply over letting it grow, stable exchange rates over flexible exchange rates, or vice

"In each case, financial and economic problems which had been building up over time became
costly enough that governments were forced to institute new policies which dealt with the
inflation, deflation, high interest rates, unemployment or other problems which were occurring.
Inflation and economic chaos followed both World War I and World War II, and government
attempts to deal with these problems created the reversals in 1920 and 1946-1949. 1932 marked
the bottom of the depression, and was followed by the election of Roosevelt in the United States
and Hitler in Germany. 1972 followed the end of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system and
the beginning of the OPEC oil crisis. Keynesian policies which had worked in an era of
government regulation of the international economy ( 1946-1970 ) did not work in an era of
international capitalism. The inflation of the 1970s led to the control of inflation and the
deregulation of markets in the 1980s."

( snip )

"A Theory of Long-term Financial Cycles

Why do these secular trends and cycles exist in financial markets? Here is one theory. When a
financial and economic crisis occurs, the government attempts to solve the economic problem
which is depressing the standard of living of many of its constituents. Doing so requires a major
shift in government policies, laws and institutions, shifts in income between groups within
society, and shifts in economic and financial psychology. These changes require a government
commitment to formulate, implement, and stick to new policies even though these policies will
come at the expense of some individuals in society. The new policies can be difficult to
implement because interest groups which have benefited from existing policies have gained
influence over time, and will do what they can to resist change. This is why it takes a crisis to
change government policies. Only when those who had benefited from past policies begin to
suffer, and others see their economic position grow worse in absolute rather than in relative
terms, will the demand for change become overwhelming."

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:35 - ID#348257)
The XAU looks ready to make a 5th wave run to 95-100 area to complete a 5th of a 1st wave off the floor. IMVHO naturally.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:37 - ID#252391)
Bj and Ej
Think your comments are very good and have a high degree of coiming to pass. The daily chart of the XAU will look very ugly if we get a close below the opening today which, given the tenor of things priorto the NY opening, I rather expect.

We need to go to extremns. 9000 on the Dow and another test of the low 60's on the XAU would meet that criteria.

I wonder, on one hand, whether the Republicans will be allowed to wonder off topic by questioning STAR concerning CLinton's activities outside the subject of his lies about his sexual activities.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:38 - ID#26793)
International meeting on hedge fund bailout avoidance

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:42 - ID#45173)
I don't know if the drug-related questions will be permitted. It's my guess that since this is not a trial but a hearing, any information may be introduced and any question asked. In fact, holding back this really bad stuff may be part of Starr's strategy. He wanted to press for the hearings based on the sex evidence so he could bring out the really ugly stuff in the context of an impeachment hearing. At least the evil lawyer in me would have done it that way.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
Bangladesh devalues currency over weekend

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:48 - ID#276230)
temple . . Sun, Oct 18, 10:50AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

With no extension, I currently see the S&P Cash Index topping out around 1150.00 Cash SPX a week from Monday. I do not believe we will make any new highs. I think the wounded bulls who sold the bottoms during the 2nd week of October, or last week just prior to the rate-related rocket ... these folks will NOT come back into the market during this rise. They will not easily admit they were wrong to get out. And the permabulls who rode the bear down and are still strapped into the saddle, wiping the sweat from their collective foreheads ... they are going to "get a second chance" to sell ... and I believe they will take it this time. --more--

temple . . Sun, Oct 18, 10:51AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

Which means that we will arrive at the top of the mountain, and a great silence will fall upon the market ... and everyone will start to look for the next buyer and see ... a void, a vacuum ... lots of product ... not so many buyers. --more--

temple . . Sun, Oct 18, 10:52AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

It probably will NOT be like fallng off a cliff, but the slide may occur with relentless agony throughout November, December and January. And it might take us below 800 Cash SPX before a major reversal in this Bear Market occurs in late January, 1999. --more--

temple . . Sun, Oct 18, 10:54AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

My Alternate Count meets this test better than the Preferred Count. It remains the Alternate because of some structural limitations. But if the market starts heading lower on Monday, instead of higher, it won't take much to get me to jump on the Alternate Count. It's got a lot of "elitism" going for it. --more--

temple . . Sun, Oct 18, 10:55AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

The Alternate Count does not move much higher than 1060.00 Cash SPX before turning south to a third retest of the lows in the 920.00 Cash SPX area. It forms an "A-B-C-D-E" horizontal triangle in the "B" of the larger "A-B-C" market failure. After that, it does pretty much what the Preferred does in November, December and January. It heads for 800 Cash SPX. It just shakes the tree a lot harder before doing it, throwing confused traders off the juiciest branches with the sweetest fruit. --more--

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 6:09PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

shorted the close Friday, but, after scrolling the chat, I find that I have a lot of company. Makes me nervous

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 7:56PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

notop: My short is jsut a short term trade that I would expect to be out of in a day or 2 if it works. Looking at the charts and reading the chat, I dont have a high level of confidence. If I get a day or 2 of pullback here, I'll be long as John Silver, cause this thing is going up BIG aftr the next pause, IMO. This short is a 'swing' trade. The coming long will be a position.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 7:58PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

10/8/98 IS A BOTTOM! Mark it down. You heard it right here on Avid chat.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:10PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

helium: "The Bottom" was in 1932, I think.: ) 10/8 was a bottom that says 7/20 breaks before it breaks. Dont expect many to agree. But I probably wont be as lonely in the view now as I was on 10/8, when I was called an "idiot" for going long down there. Shoulda stgayed long and I wouldnt hav e the problem of getting back in now. But it was a 3 day trade, so I got out the third day. But is is a BOTTOM.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:20PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

breck: OJ is a tough one. I put a long straddle on several weeks ago in the X, which the big upcrash bailed out. Now flat, looking to put a bull call spread on tomorrow, if able. Gonna try to do a March 125/145 at about 500 points debit, if possible. Looking for higher prices in OJ. And in just about ALL other "stuff." Now long more commodities than at any time in last 2 years. CRB has put in a multi-year bottom, IMO.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:24PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

helium: I'm making an unqualified call for new highs befor the low of 10/8/98 breaks. Long term I remain a super bear, but not as long as Klinton/Rubin hold the power. The call is based on what the market is saying to me. Next dip is a great buy, IMO.

oleman . . Sun, Oct 18, 8:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

spuds mckenzie1: If it goes straight up from here without eating into the range of the big day for a session or two, it'd be worrisome. It would not change what's already on the chart. New highs are already baked into the cake. How we get there------well, that's where the fun comes in.: ) I expect to be atr least 100% long by Wednesday.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:48 - ID#45173)
Here's an interesting chart. Notice the little panic blip that interrupts an otherwise gentle yet relentless downward trend. What do you think it means? The trend, I mean.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:50 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Mon Oct 19 1998 07:58 - ID#35571)
Super Tuesday?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:00 - ID#35571)
I bet that is an interesting chart.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:04 - ID#284255)
Lefty & Jims
I personally think we've only just seen the tip of the iceberg.

I am watching the retracements of the Asian and European indices for turning signals, believing that they will forshadow the next slump downhill.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:04 - ID#35571)
Another pebble

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:05 - ID#45173)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:10 - ID#35571)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:11 - ID#35571)
Sorta ambiguous, I'm just having a hard time actually LOOKING at the chart.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:17 - ID#25196)
What's it going to take?
Fellow Kitco's-What's it going to take to finally break through this damn $300 barrier?Please tell me before I go to sleep down under!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:24 - ID#284255)
Snipped from the web
Response to Asia's future/Our Tech Problem
Sorry Paul. I should have put "...- according to the survey." in quotes to illustrate the smirk on my face at the time I wrote it.

Having seen your postings ( and noted our similar age ) , I know you are thoughtful and informed. Just as the nuance of my words didn't register with you, the nuances of Japan don't register with the business, financial, and government decision makers who shape the policies that bind our global fortunes and failures.

I live in Japan. I don't live within the isolated compound of an embassy or behind the "Virtual America" fortress gates of a U.S. base. I live in Japan. The first words out of my mouth every morning and the last words every night are spoken in Japanese. It took me five years of living in the culture and walking the halls, factories and offices of Japan before I began to understand the layer upon layer of forces that motivate and drive the decision-making process of a homogeneous society insulated from the world for thousands of years. Only by clearly understanding the motivations of an entity, can a skilled business or government negotiator appeal to those motivations in their strategy.

One of the most disappointing experiences I've had in Japan was a conversation with a former U.S. Ambassador to Japan just prior to his return. This man had learned nothing during his term. Ambassadors are supported with insight from learned analysts, specialists and advisors. He was an unarmed man in a battle of wits.

Back to the topic. My basic premise is that Japan is not the leader in y2k remediation. The U.S. is not the leader in y2k remediation. We live in a borderless economy. There are no leaders and no laggards. We are bound together like the catch of a drift net.

Dolphin-Safe Tuna and y2k

Public relations can be a wonderful thing, if you're a dolphin. The sensitivity of the American and European public was aroused by the video-taped evidence of dolphins caught in the nets of tuna fishing fleets. Western people were aghast to see these intelligent, cute and sophisticated mammals treated with such indignity. They could relate to these beautiful animals...everyone remembers "Flipper." So, now we have cans of tuna with a cute little "Dolphin-Safe" label and everyone feels much better.

Has anybody ever verified that Star-Kissed tuna is "Dolphin-Safe?" What did they do to make it "Dolphin-Safe?" Did they put up little "Warning: Dolphins Keep out" signs near the schools of tuna? Did they give the fishermen "Dolphin Sensitivity Training?" Did the fishing industry upgrade to some high-tech, computerized net that only catches tuna? Are these nets y2k compliant? Are there any embedded chips in these nets? What about this "Fish and Chips" story? ( Sorry )

The greater question is: What about the tuna?

The G-7 nations believe that they are like the intelligent, sophisticated and cute dolphins that must be nurtured and protected. Everyone else is tuna. "Look honey, this is 'Dolphin-Safe' tuna. Isn't that wonderful?" ( Munch...Munch )

The dolphins get caught in the tuna nets because they are having tuna for lunch. The G-7 dolphins have created a sophisticated network of distribution that has driven parts manufacturing and assembly further and further down the food chain in the constant drive to reduce costs. If you think the margins of a global manufacturer are slim, check out the margins of a small machine shop in Malaysia.

K-Mart and Wal-Mart are having a price war. Isn't that great? Global manufacturers opened factories in Asian ( tuna ) countries at a furious pace and taught local vendors the joys of price wars and competitive bidding. The small, local machine shops and parts suppliers winning the business from these manufacturers were the lowest bidders in the poorest countries. The quality of the parts is strictly controlled and the price is continually beaten down by the latest price war in some far off place called Arkansas.

There is always another vendor more desperate for the business so the squeeze continues.
As currency exchange and production rates shifted, it became more profitable to move some production back to Japan to keep Japanese ( dolphin ) workers employed. A 3% difference in production cost ( caused by the currency speculation of some young hot-shot dolphin in New York - using other peoples money ) can equate to a loss of market share for the manufacturer selling
products to a buyer in Arkansas. The loss of market share changes the economies of scale for the product and requires moving more production back to Japan. The cycle begins. The promise of a brighter future for these "emerging economies" became a cruel hoax. They are tuna.

Over a year ago, the Japanese proposed creating an international fund to provide quick response to wild swings in currency exchange rates. They forsaw potentially devastating effects from large, high risk, speculative funds. The idea was ignored in Washington D.C. "We are the cleverest of all dolphins. We know what we're doing with derivatives, hedge funds and currency funds. You guys are acting like tuna." The idea has resurfaced as an original idea by Treasury Secretary Rubin.

The melt down in Asia ( tuna melt...sorry ) was caused by the sophisticated and clever dolphins "managing" other peoples money. Going to the racetrack and betting other peoples money is a great life. They never lose. They read their "Racing Form" ( "The Wall Street Journal" ) , check their tip sheets ( newsletters ) , study the jockey ( CEO ) , and after all is said and done, on average, they "manage" worse than a monkey drawing marks on the stock listing page. The irony here is that the tuna will probably not be affected as much by y2k failures as the dolphins will. The dolphin lifestyle may have to change more than the tuna lifestyle.

My apologies to The Gartner Group, but predictions of catastrophic y2k effects everywhere ( except the U.S. ) are not reasonable. Who are these guys anyway? What is their track record of predicting significant events? How many times have they been correct in their previous predictions?

One half of the population of the Earth has yet to make a telephone call, let alone use an ATM card. How will they be affected by y2k? They don't have stay awake at night worrying about the 70 embedded chips they encounter before noon everyday - I believe this is a Gartner Group statistic. Thanks guys. Most of the population are tuna. I used to pity them, now I envy them.

The Earth keeps spinning and orbiting our Star. Our decision to create units of time got us into this mess. Perhaps we can blame Augustus and Julius Ceasar for changing their calendar to add July and August in the hope of becoming immortal. Perhaps the inhabitants of Earth will blame the minor religion of Christianity for imposing its calendar ? Interesting concept...people quoting
apocalyptic passages from the New Testament and linking it to y2k. Didn't their guy start this problem - 2000 AD? Perhaps the Vatican will locate his birth certificate and discover he was conveniently born 28 years earlier...

Forecasting the effects of y2k is like playing a dicey game of chance - with the rules of the game constantly changing. How reliable are polls and predictions 13 months before an election? Our circumstances change daily. Our knowledge changes daily. I believe our view of the world will be different six months from now.

I believe the financial crisis about to unfold will have a greater impact on the world economy than y2k. I'm not saying that y2k isn't big, its very big. But, this is bigger. I believe Mr. Greenspan may have gone to see the movie "Deep Impact" and realized that the wave about to hit New York is the massive debt of Japan.

Think about this for a moment...the total debt of the U.S. is about 30% of GDP. The total debt of Japan is 140% of GDP. That's the good news. Wait until you hear the bad news.

Foreign market analysts think that the Japanese financial bailout package and pump-priming legislation is finished. That belief is "irrational excuberance." Once again, the analysts are unarmed men in a battle of wits. It has a fundamental flaw. Mr. Greenspan and the Fed understand the flaw. They understand that it cannot be imlemented in its present form.

Would you like to know why? Ask the Gartner Group - only kidding. I'll tell you before Tuesday.

In the meantime, the stunning collapse of a major, and I mean big, financial institution could occur between October 20th and November 2nd. The odds of collapse increase after November 2nd.

Well, I'm going to go make a dolphin sandwich.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:29 - ID#252391)
Aussie we've got so many perdictions flying around tonight my normall susceptable weaker self is turned off - which is good. Nobody knows what will happen and I wonder sometimes if I'd have the gutts to act if I thought I did know what was going to happen.

My new gutt indicator is what I'm relying on. When the metals position I have looks horrible and I wish I had never heard of KITCO, FARFEl, FLECKENSTIN etc and I really feel bad about my self, really bad - I'm going to buy. When I think I'm smart and the above mentioned the prophets from investing heaven, and I'm walking tall - I'm selling regardless of what the twenty odd different Elliot wave theriosts are writting about.

To you question what will it take to get gold over $300 - probably for me to sell out and put all my money on Yahoo. Given the current feeling of my gutt that'll be awhile.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:36 - ID#306150)
@Pu'ukani (Mooney & APH) ID#22584 @Date: Mon Oct 19 1998 03:11
Thanks for follow-up to my request Pu'ukani, got behind in the reading in last couple of busy days and just can't seem to always catch up!
Thanks again to APH for consistantly sharing your prognostications.
And Thanks to ALL who similarily share at Kitco!

"The cure for boredom is curiosity.
There is no cure for curiosity." ---Ellen Parr

"If you think education is expensive, try ignorance." ---Derek Bok

"Getting ready is the secret of success." ---Henry Ford

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:38 - ID#45173)
Sorry about that. I'll see if I can figure out why it's displaying for me and not for you. I figured you could look at it from following the URL without any further stuff to do since that worked for me. I can't believe the image is still in cache, since I haven't looked at the chart in weeks. Hmmmmm.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:39 - ID#35571)
I think the main problem is I can't find the URL.

Chicken man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:45 - ID#341297)
All: Memory jog
Does anybody remember the statement made by a Jap finance minister 3-6 months ago stating--"We will not start a world depression"....funny statement..first..nobody asked if they were going to start one...he just blurted this out!...could this been refering to their wish to sell their T-bonds....that could start "something"


Just a thought...Chicken man..

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:47 - ID#348257)
jims - your 8:29
A marvelous presentation of the most valuable psychological indicator of all - one's own fear and one's own pride and greed. This post should be copied, printed out, and enlarged. Then it should be pushpinned up beside your telephone, computer screen, bedpost, or on your forehead. Brabo.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:47 - ID#252391)
To Aussie
On last thought, thinking about the small win I made at a casino down under in your wonderful country - its like 20 people around a roulette table on any given roll. They have all thought out their bet, some will loose , some will win, some more than others on the same turn of the wheel depending on how they have positioned themselves. They will think better of themselves for their clever move. Others will follow their lead and emulate their strategy on the next turn.

Not to demean anybody's work, here, but factors beyond our control, our knowledge shall impact the market and move it accordingly. At the extremns is where the art of speculation comes into play and makes investing and speculation different than gambling. Diddling in the middle makes loosers of most. In the gold market and S&P, we're in the middle - expensive to diddle in the middle.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 08:59 - ID#306150)
@EJ - THe Whole Darn Tuna World is Watching - Post the URL!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:00 - ID#347457)
@Jims on Gold movement
Jims, yours "To you question what will it take to get gold over $300 - probably for me to sell out and put all my money on Yahoo. Given the current feeling of my gutt that'll be awhile." shows that your strategy is the same as mine ;- )

Chicken man
(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:04 - ID#341297)
jims @ Got a good book!
nlight of what you just said--read George Soros's book "Soros on Soros"...chapter 4-Theory of Investing...he talks about the same thing...calls it "reflextivity"

Great Book!!

Just a thought..Chicken man..

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:07 - ID#35571)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:09 - ID#31876)
Tokyo Market Report -- "Dollar Drops Vs Yen on Japan, U.S. Sales"

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:09 - ID#35571)
Where was he a month ago?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:15 - ID#35571)
Good find. This is where the dam will begin to break. Japan.

As the banking crises sorts itself out, the Nikkei rises a few days in a row, and the Japanese bond market starts looking better, the flight money here in the US will start feeling very homesick.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:18 - ID#35571)
Everything is so quiet and still. I'm beginning to think maybe I should go down and tweak a lever or two.

Maybe another Great Gollum Silver Rally. That was fun. Should wake Mr. Armstrong and Mr. Arnold and company up a bit too.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:20 - ID#35571)
Everything's still mixed.
09:16 DOLLAR MIXED: OFF 0.2% TO 114.72 YEN, GAINS 0.5% TO 1.622 MARK.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:24 - ID#339274)
Hope you got your marrying puts in the big cap gold stocks,
It is going to be a good one.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:28 - ID#371229)
Greenspan the theoritician when younger, now a politicized pragmatist...

The following is quoted from Colin Alexander's Five Star Bulletin:

"The fed is the problem, not the solution.

'To paraphrase Gresham's law: bad protection drives out good. To attempt to

protect the consumer by force undercuts the protection he gets from incentive...

it grants an automatic protection ( though in fact unachievable ) gaurentee of

safety from the products of any company that complies with its arbitrarily set


Since the 1982 bailout of Mexico, bad protection has been the stock in trade of

federal reserve. Now the Fed appears to be trying to bail out the entire world,

including all of the japanese banking system, deadbeat hedge funds and the instit-

tions that lent money to them, possibly including Lehman and Bankers Trust.

Common sense says that this kind of rescue is merely an exercise in putting

ever bigger fuses into the system so that in due course not the fuse but the entire

system is endangered. The author of our opening quotation identified the challenge

of regulation correctly, except that at the time he was writing about product protection

rather than the service protection of banking.

And the author of this common sense was none other than the current Fed chair-

man Alan Greenspan. Once an associatte of Ayn Rand, the quotation comes from his

August 1963 essay The Assault of Integrity, published in a collection of essays

titled Ayn Rand Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal.

Ayn Rand's books and her philosophy were based on the view that capitolism

unfettered contains the means to correct its own excesses. Only by governments est-

ablishing through legislation monopolies in any area of the economy would they not

be self-correcting.

If this seems an extreme view, let's look further at Greenspan the pre-Fed theoritician

had to say about how tthe boom of the 1920s came to an end. This quotation comes

from Greenspan's 1966 essay Gold and Economic freedom:

'When busines in the United States underwent a mild correction in 1927, the

Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible

bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however was the Federal Reserve's attempt

toassist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused

to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated it ( it was politically unpalatable ) .

The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the federal Reserve

pumped excessive paper reserves into American Banks, interest rates in the United States

would fall to alevel comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's

gold loss and avoid the political embarassment of having to raise interest rates.

'The Fed succeded: it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies

of the world in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled

over into the stock market triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal

Reserve official attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in breaking

the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalance had become so overwhelming

that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and demoralizing of confidence.

As a result the American economy collapsed.'

Greenspan suggests that the mild business contraction in 1927 should have been allowed

to run its mildly painful course in order to purge from the economy relatively minor

excesses that had become unsustainable. Instead, the Fed continued to feed money into

the system to avert the consequences of over-expansion. The result as we all know

was the bust that began mid-year 1929. When the economy topped out, selling

pressure overtook buying pressure on the stock exchange and stocks went down.

As stocks went down, the so-called wealth effect went into reverse. People who had

previosly felt richer and more able to buy goods because their investments were

more valuable, now drew in their horns.

There is nothing magical about this. It is simply the way that the free enterprise system works.

Free enterprise means having the freedom to start a business, however hare-brained

the idea. This freedom axiomatically implies the right to fail. Remove the right to fail by arbitrary

means of any kind and you virtually guarentee the kind of lack of success from

which Russia is trying to emerge.

The immensity of the problem in Japan was described in FWN news rport we

received on October 15.

'The Japanese commercial banks are gearing up to reduce lending, primarily

to maintain capital adequacy ratios, according to areport today in the Nikkei newspaper.

'The report said not only are major banks refraining from making new loans,

they intend to recover as many outstanding loans as possible in the remainder of

the fiscal year. Outstanding bank loans shrank 2.7% year on year in September,

the report quoted the Bank of Japan as saying.

'Large writ-offs of bad loans have eroded banks capital bases, and falling stock prices

appear to have swollen unrealized losses on their stockholdings. On top of this, Japanese

banks are having trouble raising funds on the money market...

'Conditions are even worse overseas. The report quoted Satoru Kishi, president

of Bank Tokyo-Mitsubishi, as saying Japanese banks at one stage found it impossible

to raise funds at all on th interbank capital market in early October, since banks lowered credit lines.'"


(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:38 - ID#229207)
Duh. I fergot the URL.
Here it is...^tyx&d=b

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:47 - ID#290172)
Derivatives turnover up 85% since 1995
FT 10/19/98
Turnover in the over-the-counter derivatives market soared by 85% since 1995, according to a survey by the Bank for International settlements.

The survey, conducted every three years, also revealed that the D-Mark had overtaken the dollar as the most important currency of denomination in over-the-counter interest rate swap transactions, with a 30% share of the market.

Turnover in D-Mark denominated interest rate swaps rose sevenfold over the three year period, partly because of the currency's use as a proxy for the euro.

The average daily turnover in OTC currency and interest rate instruments in April 1998 was $

Average daily turnover in "traditional" foreign exchange instruments ( spot, forward and foreign exchange swap transactions ) rose rose to $1,490 bn in April 1998, compared with $1,190 bn in the same month in 1995.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:49 - ID#290172)
"Run that one by me again, Bill"

"Observer never misses an issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's weighty Economic Policy Review, a monthly which rivals Mogadon for sheer excitement. The latest installment contains all the important bits from the Fed's fascinating February conference on the future of financial regulation.

Especially rewarding is an erudite paper on "extreme events in financial risk management".

Space does not allow a full prcis of all the mind-bending mathematics on show. But the authors conclude that 'traditional parametric statistic and econometric methods, typically based on estimation of entire densities, may be ill-suited to the assessment of extreme quantiles and event probabilities.'

In other words, the fancy theories used by hedge fund managers are about as much use as a bikini in a blizzard when markets crash. Further inquiries to the man who chaired the conference-and seven months later had to organise the rescue of teetering hedge fund LTCM-Fed president Bill McDonough."
FT Observer 10/19/98

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:49 - ID#410196)

She's a speedy machine, now, Bart; thanks.

We've had a good shakedown at $300. Would somebody please change gears and see if Bart's machine will now take $340?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 09:53 - ID#35571)
In 1997 the world became increasingly aware of the asian crises as flight money began to pour into US securities. In the early part of 1998 the market more or less ignored the problem, figuring the US economy was too strong to be affected much and that the situation was not as serious as some were saying.

Eventually worry resumed, and with the exception of a small summer rally peaking in JULY ( which the small caps didn't much participate in ) has been increasing.

With the problem of LTCM ( not the demise of LTCM, nor of hedge funds in general, just a set back ) worry reached a crescendo.

The overall trend is down as a reflection of the overall worry going up. The little "blip" is a period of worry overdone. The most significant thing is that it popped back up.

So now we wait to see what direction the "post blip" market will take.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:00 - ID#290172)
Development Banks Going for the Gold

Accord portant cration de la Banque Africaine de Dveloppement
Sommaire Source et Ralisation : Jurisen. Article 5 : Capital autoris.
Article 5: Authorized capital

1 - A. the share capitals authorized of the Bank is 250.000.000 of Units of Account. It is divided into 25.000 actions, of a face value of 10.000 Units of Accounts each one, which are offered to the subscription of the Member States.

B. The value of the Unit of Account is 0,88867088 gram of fine gold.

Euroopan investointipankin perussnnst

Belgia 86,5 miljoonaa
Alankomaat 71,5 miljoonaa
Luxemburg 2 miljoonaa

Laskentayksikn arvo on 0,88867088 grammaa hienokultaa.

Jsenvaltiot ovat vastuussa ainoastaan siihen mrn asti, joka on niiden osuus merkityst ja maksamattomasta pomasta.

What Are MDBs?
Multilateral Development Banks ( MDBs ) are international lending institutions owned by member countries. The banks' objective is to promote economic and social progress in developing member nations by providing loans, technical assistance, capital investment, and help with economic development plans.

COMMENT: They appear interested in "law" and gold...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:03 - ID#35571)
DOW +15
PM's starting to show some strength. Bonds continuing slight downtrend which began early Friday afternoon.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:08 - ID#287223)
Bank A has defaults to the tune of $10,000,000.

Bank A also has assets worth only $5,000,000 in gold.

Wouldn't Bank A be thrilled if suddenly the value of it's golden assets doubled???

The balance sheets are squared instantly.

Ah, the answer to a troubling problem, indeed.

Remember, after ECU is instituted, the new rules state ( thanks to SDRer research )

that the value of their gold will be Marked TO Market!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:11 - ID#410194)
"Gold and Silver"
Today's analysis of Gold and Silver from "Hightower Report":

"GOLD: All the talk about a credit crunch in the US means that some if not all of the rate cuts are being swallowed up in a slower the global contraction which means gold continues to see only minor long interest. Since the currency turn didn't spark a wave of buying it must be that demand was virtually stagnant with production constant. The trade is probably also concerned about gold dumping by the IMF considering the precarious global condition which has a solid basis in fact. Like a number of other commodities gold only explodes when the crisis is judged to be past. Since May, gold has made a number of gap higher spike moves only to fail before taking out 310. Expect more minor gains but longs should begin to run stops."

"SILVER: A nice strong range Friday didn't appear to have much volume behind it which makes today's action kind of suspect. If the December can mount a trade above $5.00 maybe the old range between 500 and 550 can become valid again."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:12 - ID#258269)
This is a coin you should bid on. If it's for real and the US
government doesnot confiscate it, it's got to be worth a 1/2 million


(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:14 - ID#287223)
of course, this applies only to ECU banks, but wouldn't American banks
be forced to follow suit?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:14 - ID#410194)
@Mike Sheller (better late than.....)
The bottom is in. ( Gold ) However, its performance will not meet the high expectations of the very optimists gold bulls for another few years.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:19 - ID#183258)
Your win my award for being able to find the most arcane and obscure details. How in the hell do you do it !!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:19 - ID#290172)
Lex Column, "Exuberance lives" [FT 10/19/98]

"So shares are cheap again? Unfortunately not."
Lex proceeds to detail why, and concludes as follows:

"Apply more realistic earnings estimates-say, zero growth in the US and UK next year and 5 per cent for euroland-and markets look frothy.
The US is the most overvalued, at around 25-30per cent; fair value for the S&P Composite would be 800-850. Next comes the UK, at 15-20 per cent-implying fiar value for the FTSE 100 of 4,000-4,500. Last, and least overvalued, is euroland at 10 percent.

These calculations are, of course, senstive to the assumptions used, especially the risk premium. Fair value would rise to current market prices if a 2.25 per cent risk premium was used for the US, a 3 per cent for the UK and 3.5 per cent for eurolad. But in the current fragile climate, those figures look unduly bullish. It is also worth remembering that fair value would fall if more nasties crawled out of the woodwork-and that markets have a tendency to overshoot on the downside
as well as the upside."

Silverbaron@free.trials Many thanks!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:27 - ID#271125)
I notice that the spread within the spot price tends to be greater than 50 cents shortly after tis knocked off a little. Is this not indicative perhaps of lackluster attempts to trigger further selling...or perhaps with such little volume individual trades are witnessed?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:30 - ID#182184)
Another Y2K Experience... tick... tick... tick....
Last week, it happened again. We put together a proposal for the services to install a new financial system. This would replace a clients ( $1B+ in revenue ) existing 15+ year old financial system, which is not Y2K compliant. General Ledger, HR, Payroll and Purchasing. Many companies were interested, but we were the only company that submitted a complete bid.

The clients IS folks went to the Finance folks and told them that they needed $1M for the project. The Finance folks told them that they would have to do it for $300k. We said "Sorry..."

Since this is another client with the fiscal year beginning on 7/01/99, the next few months are going to be very interesting!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:39 - ID#290172)
Old news, but more than a little interesting 

Turkey's privately held gold hoard totalled about 6,000 tons mainly in the form of individual savings. "Gold backed financial instruments and derivatives will help to mobilize a proportion of the ( public's ) gold hoard and provide provide development finance for the jewelery sector," Aytogu said.

off to till the currency fieldwill share sprouts {:- ) )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:41 - ID#290172)
PMF--One is "told" things and then one seeks
"public" sources to "muddy" the private {:- ) )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:43 - ID#284255)
I was reffering more so to the bank who has losses of say $10 billion.
With assets of say $1 billion.

And if they had only $100 million in gold?

It's pointless to argue an absurd asumption.
Such as a global financial meltdown.

It's like trying to measure the impact of one power station going down upon all the others.
My initial speculation was for a massive meltdown with a 50% failure rate of banks.

One bank means naught.
When compared to the whole system collapsing.

I was just wondering aloud my thoughts on the POG?
After having listened to AG, BC, MC and Saikubura all saying we're at the edge of a massive financial meltdown.

"IF" this was to happen I could well imagine the POG plummeting.

"IF" this was to happen then the nature of the world would change - dramatically.

How many sheeple are up to their eyeballs in debt?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:48 - ID#284255)
How about Allstate's recent purchase.
I think it was 18,000 ( could have been 14k ) AS/400's
This order was absolutely massive.

Presumably a Y2k replacement.

It was large enough to set back IBM's books by 30 days.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:49 - ID#35571)
I think it may be, as you suggest, indicative of low volume. Attempts to knock the price down tend to come at certain key times as twenty or thirty minutes before the equity market open, or metals market close, during lunch time in NY, etc.

They used up quite a bit of ammo holding prices down last week before expiry after the Fed had lowered rates the day before and with th run on the dollar. I noticed they didn't seem to be trying very hard THIS morning.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:51 - ID#287223)
hmmmm....OK, losses of 10 billion, gold of 100 mil, would have
to be revalued at 100x . That would be $30,000/oz. ?? Naahhh...never
happen........could it??

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:57 - ID#384350)
Email chatter
From a guy I know who is a very good futures trader.

He sees the S+P Dec futures continuing to rally here, with my objective to 1109.00 ( fractal target ) .

From there, he'll reverse to the short side.
He doesn't think it should get over 1123.00.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 10:59 - ID#147201)
SDRer re Turkish gold
Do you have any ihfo re Turkish gold coins? Or a ref to these?? TIA Charlie

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:08 - ID#339274)
FWIW Rangy coiling to reach 1 dollar,very impressive

John Disney
(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:10 - ID#24135)
for jims ..
Have heard that Harmony earned
R1.14 after capex per share ..
Cash earnings are 2.5 times what
they were prior quarter .. On that
great news the stocks came off
fifty cents ..
a 10/1 p/e puts the stock at 45

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:12 - ID#194311)
Who's puzzled?.....the bubble burst, simple.
Sunday October 18 2:01 PM EDT

Market Drop Still Unsolved Puzzle

By CHET CURRIER AP Business Writer

NEW YORK ( AP ) _ After three months of upheaval since midsummer in the financial markets, Wall Street analysts have yet to reach any sort of consensus on what to call the
whole thing or where it might lead.

Some portray the selloff direly as the first leg of a bear market _ the mere beginnings of a painful process of adjustment to a worldwide economic outlook that has deteriorated
badly and may still be getting worse.

Don't be fooled by last week's rally, they say. Bear markets rarely happen all at once, but more often come in waves.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:13 - ID#33184)
There is a rumored expiration of 5 yards of stg/dm on Thursday ( 14:00 GMT ) , reportedly from Soros who bought stg/dm puts many months ago.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:18 - ID#339274)
FWIW Bonds have given a buy signal,SnP is a sell.Gold will
slide down until Wednesday morning

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:19 - ID#194311)
LTCB...first Jap bank to fail into arms of gubbmint
Monday October 19, 5:00 am Eastern Time

LTCB says no comment on FSA inspection results

TOKYO, Oct 19 ( Reuters ) - The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd ( LTCB ) said on Monday it had received the results of an
inspection conducted by the Financial Supervisory Agency ( FSA ) , but that it did not plan to comment on them.

``We can confirm we have received ( the results ) from the FSA but we are not in the position to make further comments,'' said a LTCB

Top government spokesman Hiromu Nonaka said earlier on Monday he did not think it appropriate to disclose the inspection results of
an individual financial institution in view of the need to maintain financial order.

Banking sources said recently that the bad loan-laden LTCB was expected to apply on October 23 to be put under state control as the first Japanese bank to be nationalised under a
law dealing with failed or failing banks.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:31 - ID#373403)
Things which make me question Greenspan...
First he warns markets about irrational exhuberance and then he moves to reinflate the bubble based on market declines affecting the economy. He sites the systemic risk to the banking system ( derivatives, leveredge, and hedge funds ) as one cause for action and then he also sites the reverse of the wealth effect on consumer spending as another.

Well duh! As if he did not understand the implications of a collapsing bubble back during his irrational exhuberance speech. There is no excuse for his not pricking the bubble with tightening policy back then. I guess the American bubble is now too big to fail in his opinion.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:36 - ID#269409)
@ Today is "CRASH" anniversary day??
1987. October 19 wasn't it?... Black Monday?. Events of this October don't mirror it fact, having seen the worst world economic crises in decades, and apparently said crises having done it's "worst" already, it would appear that we are on the road to recovery.... after the final residual waves from Asia wash ashore and dissipate over the next few months.

Not a bad time to buy into the stock market. New highs ahead in 1999.

Oh yes...Gold....


(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:37 - ID#271125)
Test of 294.50/295 enroute I suspect coming

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:45 - ID#194311)'re deluded if you think the worst is over
no free lunches in this universe...
fat american haven't paid for theirs yet.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:49 - ID#389387)
@Year2000, Peoplesoft?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:51 - ID#288186)
Greenspan and Company have been between a rock and a hard spot for
quite some time now. They were too lax with Fed policy which led
to the bubble market. He's tried to tlak it down via "irrational
exuberance" statements because he knew the bubble was getting worse.
Unfortunately, at the same time as the equities bubble began, the
U.S. dollar began its climb. Thus, the imbalance. He needed to
raise interest rates to "pop" the equities bubble, but he couldn't
because the dollar would rise even more. And that brings us to
today...He's been forced to lower rates twice and he still has the
same problems as before, with the addition of more financial instability
( ie; Hedge fund problems, massive fear of deflation, flight money leaving
our shores, etc ) . The imbalances are getting larger. Something has got to
happen. Ultimately, I think Gold will rise big time. But it may, as some have posted here, re-visit it's downside. How much? I know not...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:55 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 174.965 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 298.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 175.721 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 298.550 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8764 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 19 Oct 1998 ) : 4.9000 US Dollars

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:56 - ID#350288)
How quickly we forget. We have seen optimism in the market for 4 days now and you think the worst is over. Brother what we have seen up to this point is only glimps of what we will see from this point forward. Hopefully we all gained some trading training for the upcoming volitility, I know I did. Dont forget Y2k for Japan starts in April. But if you thing the DOW is a bargain at 8500 - knock yourself out. Good Luck

(Mon Oct 19 1998 11:59 - ID#237299)
Perchance, did you notice the original bizzare karat and weight of the proposed Russian 10 Rouble common coin? Something about the ratios kept striking me as familiar. After some back of the envelope calculations It seems that they were setting this to be equivalent to the SDR exchange of the DMark. ( exactly equivalent, within 1/1000th ) Obviously these would be for interbank gauarantees. They would never release them for actual circulation, although the larger coin *might* be sold for western currency with a high collectors premium.

Given that the Germans had the largest investment in Russia, might this not be a circuitous route in which SDRs on account at IMF could be book transfered, thus clearing the German debt? It seems that the ties between Berlin and Moscow have more depth than is widely believed.

They have since changed their story, and proclaimed that the coins will be set face to underlying; which is of course absurd, since they don't have enough gold to do the job, and they would be robbed blind if interbanck conversion were allowed.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:04 - ID#187109)
-thank you MikeS-
For that quick informal poll this weekend. It was quite informative. All said and done I am very happy at the odds facing this here gold market. 4 to 1. Hmmmmm. Their is some excellent company on our side of the coin. I would be interested to see a poll on AVID regarding the same question......or in USA today with Joe Sixpack and ma & pa public. I wonder what the odds would be then.

And now that US interest rates are lowered and the DOW has broken through 8400 and seems to be on its way higher ( maybe;- ) ) ......what will become of our precious.............hmmmmmmmm............ ( EB wondering ) ..............hmmmmmmmmmmm.........

to all - btw, happy anniversary of the 1987 'correction'. It was today eleven years ago, no? ( I am sure that it has been said here already I just overlooked it ) .

how low can plat go? JohnD - I will buy big at 310 just like DJ will. DJ - the gold channel looks like it can go ONE WAY, uh huh. work

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:04 - ID#343171)
excerpt from
Gold shares via the XAU Index got slammed a bit declining from 87.53 on October 7 to
70.56 on October 14. Keep in mind, however, that this same index had risen an incredible
79.8% from August 31 to October 7. That's the equivalent of the Dow rising 5900 points
off its 7400 low! Volume has remained positive in the shares and in the metal and I
believe a potentially huge move is in its early stages which ultimately could carry Gold
well over $1000 per ounce and shares possibly ten times their current price in the next
few years! Long Newmont Mining ( NEM ) and Placer Dome ( PDG ) .

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:08 - ID#287186)
Underground or Black Market Gold Price
Let's assume the CB's revalue Gold into the high four digits ( US ) .
Let's further assume that Gold mining is nationalized worldwide and private Gold possession and trade is made illegal for common people.

Since "they" can't stop trade in something by making it illegal,

What do Kitocoites figure an equilibrium black market Gold price will be?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:22 - ID#287279)
How much longer?
"...Others had Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin cajoling one of the world's largest gold dealers into lending out its inventory at no interest in order to hold down the price of bullion, which can register the nervous sweat of investors with the sensitivity of a polygraph."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:32 - ID#66144)
ALL IMO remember Nov election play in force with all statements avoiding any sign of
inflation and factor in the timing of the Greenspan move. Would not expect much action in oil or PM's til mid Nov.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:37 - ID#269409)
@ Mapleman
Mapleman, You said "But if you thing the DOW is a bargain at 8500 - knock yourself out."

However, I have never maintained that DOW 8500 is a "bargain". The bargain was to be had two weeks ago when Puetz was calling for a crash and for buying "Puts" on the S & P. THAT was the all out "Buy" signal for the stock market.

I'm not in the broad market, but if we get another nice downturn, I will be... ( if accompanied bu another Puetz "Crash" prediciton anyway....and particularly if it is compunded by a Farfel stock and bond crash'd be a 100% winning bet with no downside risk under those circumstances... )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:39 - ID#286224)
What juniors look good to you now?


(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:47 - ID#269409)
@ Puetz's predicted September / October crash...right on track
Monday October 19, 12:21 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Wall St stocks strong at midday, small caps lead

By Jennifer Westhoven

NEW YORK, Oct 19 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were solidly higher at midday on
Monday after a spate of mergers reassured Wall Street that the recent recovery in
stocks might have some staying power.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 41 points to 8458 at midday, pushing higher in the wake of three straight
sessions of gains and its best weekly point gain ever.

Last week, the Dow closed up more than 517 points.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, a broader measure of blue chip stocks, was up nearly three points to 1059.

Small-cap stocks showed the strongest gains, with the Russell 2000 Index up nearly seven points to 349.6. The index was
up more than two percentage points, besting the blue chip averages.

The Nasdaq Composite, a barometer of technology stocks, was up 14 points to 1635, with the gains led by the small end
of its spectrum.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:47 - ID#404246)
Reliable sources (for me anyway)

I have profited from information I found on Kitco while lurking. It is now my turn to post some information I acquired this weekend from several of my trusted friends.

One who is in charge of the shipping department of a large US corporation said: Orders for our product has dropped 30% in the last 2 months and we are laying off 40% of our staff. They manufacture advertising items for Disneyland, Sea World and other similar companies. He also said that the shipping lines he deals with, both local and national are telling him that their shipping of finished products and raw materials is down 20 to 40 percent from last year.

Another who works for the government in Washington DC said: "The Treasury department has sent out, to all other departments, a request for lawyers with experience in "bank law" especially as it applies to contract law. "

The first probably has to do with the "Credit Crunch" Grenspan is worried about.

The second probably has to do with whatever caused Grenspan to lower rates.

These are rumors but worth thinking about. Can anyone confirm them?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:48 - ID#282207)
For years the leaders big banks and the exchanges world wide have been able to show us an illusion as to which way things were headed.
Now the truth is starting to rear it's ugly head and Greenspeak is where you will always find the first signs of the truth. READ the following;

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:50 - ID#334219)
SWP1 - Juniors
There are dozens of juniors that are excellent buys. Cumberland, Minefinders, Manhattan and Geomaque are my favorites. But you should look at the mid-tier as well. You will find in this class some of the best performers of the September rally. Here, I like Viceroy and Glamis.

If only we can get this bull confirmed...which is far from a done deal.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:51 - ID#258427)
There is "some" reason that gold is getting hammered
and it ain't supply and demand...something is brewing...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:53 - ID#254288)
I think we're missing something about gold loans

Not all gold loans after an initial exchange for dollars stood in US denominated investments.

Say a fund or entity shorting gold bought a relatively weak currency paying high rates. We also have to remember gold has done nothing while many currencies have slowly inched up and later jumped against the dollar.

Say that they sold the gold at about $330 and bought an Asian currency or business then being battered, but later recovered 1/4 to 1/2 of the high/low differential. Today they can exchange their currency/investment at a profit, buy cheap dollars and replace the gold on the cheap.

It seems that those engaged in Russia, LatAM or shorting currencies against the dollar may be the ones suffering.

Greenspans lowering rates and engineering a still weaker dollar allows those on the right side of the equation to buy gold still cheaper because gold has still to react in dollar terms.

I suggest that the successful hedge funds bail the weak hedge funds and the IMF out.

John Disney
(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:57 - ID#24135)
JCI Gold ..
to anyone interested ..
Im very confused on this one ..
I have some notes that say the
following .. date october 6th .. numbers rand.

940 million rands worth of Wes Areas
( this make about 46 mill shares )
440 million cash
275 million management contracts ( ???? )

total 1655 mil rand on 155 mill shares.

Now thats an NAV of 10.7 rand .. and JC
gold trades at 4.75 as of today .. I
have that a better discount than Rangold ..

By the way RRS showing signs of life ..
its helping rangold a little.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 12:57 - ID#350288)

Everybody wears a different pair of glasses and I hope for your sake you have the correct prescription. I will acknowledge that many opinions expressed here have been dead wrong, especially Puetz, but I have tended to agree with them that if not for market manipulation we would be no whre near8500 and probably closer to 5500. Its hard to see the future but looking at the past should help correct the vision of many. Look at what we have seen so far this year and look at what looms on the horizon.If you dont see anything that makes you nervous then I say again " knock yoursel out" Good Luck

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:00 - ID#384350)
Savage - Yer 10:08
You Wrote:
Bank A has defaults to the tune of $10,000,000.
Bank A also has assets worth only $5,000,000 in gold.
Wouldn't Bank A be thrilled if suddenly the value of it's golden assets doubled???
The balance sheets are squared instantly.
Or maybe the bank thinks of a way to get the gold out of the bank ( e.g. leasing ) and then declares itself bankrupt.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:01 - ID#66144)
All Robert Precter about to appear on CNBC

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:01 - ID#284255)
Stock trends & Y2k
Think for a moment, lets just suppose that Y2K is no big deal. I suggest that even if its not, a few people already think so, and as we get closer to 2000, more will too. True or not?

Just think of the effect on the economy if just one thing happened, one little precautional scenario --- that scenario being, why buy a NEW car in 1999? "If Y2K is terrible, I won't even be able to get gas, if its not, I'll get my new car next year.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:03 - ID#339274)
Bank index is acting very volatile,something is up.
I expect another rate cut before the month is out.
The move of gold is going to be lightning fast,whenever there is
another rate cut or a major bank goes under,the reason for
marrying puts

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:04 - ID#384350)
Bill D
Gold heading lower with the Dow perhaps.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:09 - ID#282207)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:12 - ID#431200)
GOLD FIELDS ( Nasdaq:GLDFY ) according Yahoo is Ex-Div on Oct 19.Maybe it's a stock split because the shares are down $13 1/16 to 1 13/16 -87.8%. Could somebody give me some informations.Thanks

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:14 - ID#288186)
Cyclist; Just so I'm on the same track regarding "marrying puts"...
You mean to buy "gold puts" to hedge or off-set any long gold stocks
or gold futures right? TIA Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:18 - ID#344326)
An update on Greenstone Resources...GRERF
This post was taken from the Greenstone Thread on Silicon....

"To All,

Just got off the phone with Rudi Fronk.... Here is an update......

---Sell-off due to a large investor who dumped his shares...still has more and is waiting to see how the commissioning of the mines goes..
---Production for this year...150,000 oz. Next year still focusing on 400,000.
---Reserves at San Andreas and Cerro Mojon will be increased substantially.
---Rumor about banks calling in lines of credit is garbage...
---7 million in the bank..enough to get all properties through the commissioning and into full production stages
---Goal is to have all mines in full production mode to start the new year. ( Jan 1 ) .

Hope this helps...."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:19 - ID#339274)
That is the prudent thing to do.If the price collapses than
you buy more of those goldstocks.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:23 - ID#334219)
The problem is that the bull market in gold is not yet confirmed and new lows are still possible. A prolonged period of lower gold prices would cause big problems to stocks like Greenstone that don't have a lot of cash. Your investment choices should go to miners that have very little debt and a lot of cash. Once the bull is confirmed these leveraged miners will be top performers...until then I prefer the Viceroy and Glamis of this world.

John Disney
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:25 - ID#24135)
..hate "calls" .. love numbers
To all ..
I believe that the "call" of the year without a doubt
was that of my brother Oris .. who warned of serious
trouble brewing in the Soviet Union.. His call was
made in the interest of helping his Kitco brothers..
He doesnt write a newsletter and is not trying to make
a name for himself as a GURU..
I understand and sympathize with LGB's criticism of Puetz
never ending "forecast" of a crashing DOW .. Puetz stuff
is based on nothing much at all.. His motive seems to
be that maybe on the off chance he is right .. people
will believe he can see the future and buy his newsletter.
The only thing he has accomplished is to prove beyond
any doubt that he cannot see the future any better
than my blind hound, Ben .. and Ben can even bark
better than Puetz can.
Nonetheless.. I see no point in hassling poor puetz..
who should simply try and find a way to make an honest
living. So I suggest we all desist with riding the poor
chap ..
The idea of voting for who really thinks the bottom
is in on gold is simply nutty .. it is indeterminate ..
If you believe EW .. IF we break 325 .. then the bottom
WAS in. Until we do .. we must assume the bottom is
NOT IN .. BUT this is an assumption and we really do
not KNOW..
Without unforeseen surprises, Platinum should simply
fall to 310 or thereabouts... ( BUT I dont KNOW that
.. it just LOOKS that way .. and I think one should
assume that until and unless platinum proves otherwise )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:26 - ID#215235)
I bought 4,000 shares of GRERF last week. Was wondeing why the stock was moving down on large volume. This stock will be a real steal at 1 1/8. Will buy more if it should hit its lows. Thanks for the information.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:27 - ID#290202)
Were you a banker in a former life??????????? ...dioro, is that "two gold"?

John Disney
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:32 - ID#24135)
.. and another thing ..
.. The mole makes statements that really should be
edited .. like "most people" do this or that and
"many people" believe ..
.. This KILLS me ..
.. mole dear boy .. "most people" are idiots and
"many people" dont know what they are talking about..
... so please stop speaking on their behalf..

Mike Stewart
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:33 - ID#270253)

They are disributing their share of Gold Fields Limited ( GDFDY ) and some others to shareholder of the holding company, Gold Fields of South Africa. You will get shares in these. Check the link for details.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:37 - ID#225236)
Russia seriously considering gold based currency!!!
Please note that they do not really seem to have a choice. The question is: what effect will it have on POG? Unfortunately, probably short time negative, long time positive in a BIG way.

The battle plans have been drawn. Russia lost ( for now ) because they believed in dollar as a reserve ( big mistake ) .

I think all goldbugs must realize that the dollar vs. gold struggle is a battle to the death -- gold will not rise until dollar dies. It is important to raalize what is is all about. Many goldbugs blindly create their own destruction by constantly taking actions that make dollar stronger and gold weaker. The best example is investing in gold stocks. By buying gold stocks you expand gold supply and/or keep unprofitable mines in business ( very good for the dollar, bad for gold ) . In practical terms, this results in developing very large and mostly unused gold mining capacity in the western world. This capacity is mobilized at any hint of gold showing signs of life -- this prolongs the dollar fraud game.

If you really believe that dollar is a fraud, do youself a favor and have at least 5% of your assets in PHYSICAL gold. If you need to speculate, you can do it ( short term best ) in futures and options.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:37 - ID#384350)
Man on the Moon - REM
Mott the Hoople and the game of Life, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Andy Kaufman in the wrestling match, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Monopoly, Twenty-one, checkers, and chess, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Mister Fred Blassie, and a breakfast mess, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Let's play Twister, let's play Risk, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I'll see you heaven if you make the list, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Now Andy did you hear about this one, tell me are you locked in the
Hey Andy are you goofing on Elvis? Hey baby, are we losing touch?

If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon.
If you believe there's nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool.

Moses went walking with the staff of wood, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Newton got beaned by the apple good, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Egypt was troubled by the horrible asp, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Mister Charles Darwin had the gall to ask, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Now Andy, did you hear about this one? Tell me, are you locked in the
Hey Andy are you goofing on Elvis? Hey baby, are you having fun?

If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon.
If you believe there's nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool.

Here's a little agit for the never believer, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here's a little ghost for the offering, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Here's a truck stop instead of Saint Peter's, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Mister Andy Kaufman's gone wrestling, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
Now Andy did you hear about this one? Tell me are you locked in the
Hey Andy are you goofing on Elvis? Hey baby, are we losing touch?

If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon.
If you believe there's nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool.
If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon.
If you believe there's nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool.
If you believed they put a man on the moon, man on the moon.
If you believe there's nothing up my sleeve, then nothing is cool.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:42 - ID#334219)
On Greenstone...two questions:

1 ) The $7M in the bank you mentioned...does that include the September financing

2 ) DO you know about GRE's current hedging strategy...Are they covered?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:43 - ID#348286)
I also held Greenstone but dumped at 2.15 C$. There is something wrong when the POG rallies, and this thing was just floating lower on huge volume. Something really stinks here. Why would a large investor dump a good Gold stock in a bull market? Just my opinion.....
Maybe I buy back if it gets to $1.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:52 - ID#261177)
Greenstone has a bottom in place on the weekly and daily charts.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 13:54 - ID#35571)
Georgia on my mind

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:03 - ID#286249)
Jack~re--"I think we're missing something about gold loans:

"Not all gold loans after an initial exchange for dollars stood in US denominated investments. Say a fund or entity shorting gold bought a relatively weak currency paying high rates. We also have to remember gold has done nothing while many currencies have slowly inched up and later jumped against the dollar."

A. Date: Sat, 14 Jun 1997 12:45:25 -0200
The Turkish Treasurery changed the Istanbul Gold Market ( IAB ) charter. Foreigners are now allowed to trade directly. The step followed the intention of Kazakstan and Uzbekistan to sell gold in Istanbul. There is a high demand from traders all around world to join the IAB as brokers to participate in the gold trade.>

B. Istanbul Gold Exchange
The Istanbul Gold Exchange ( IGE ) , which has been engaged in spot-trading of gold since July 1995, is planning to go ahead with a gold futures contract. Since the Securities and Exchange Commission of Turkey approved the gold futures market, approximately 40 members of the IGE have received pre-approval to engage in the trading of gold futures. Trading is expected to begin by the end of July 1997.>

C. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
1997 Status Report on Exchange-Traded Derivatives Markets in Emerging and Developing Market Economies
Scroll down to China.

D. Chinese Defense minister, Chi Haotian, will arrive to Bishkek on 16 June. President press service announced in Bishkek today Chinese minister will meet with President Akayev, Prime minister Joumagulov, Defence minister Myrzakan Subanov. Military cooperation between China and Kyrgyzstan will be discussed. It was announced before, that no official document would be signed during the visit.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:04 - ID#384350)
Savage - Banker in Another Life?
You might have guessed Dioro isn't my real name. I partially got Dioro from designer Christian Dior. In Italian, I think dioro would mean "of gold", or a bit like French Politician, Jacques Delors ( de l'or ) .

Banker in another life? You never know. If so, I hope I didn't foreclose on anyone's property. I don't care for bankers much, though financials are in my blood. My grandfather actually gave Buffett a few pointers, unfortunately he never talked to me about financials.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:05 - ID#266105)
Harmony earnings


Sorry about the caps.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:10 - ID#246224)
exogenous events
exogenous - outside the 'body', external, outside cause.

How does a market factor risk from a source which has no precident?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:13 - ID#246224)
Does the market as a whole see and factor all into its current valuation?
Or is it always limited by the availability of information and its ability to interpret what information it has available to it?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:14 - ID#246224)
Is a 'market' a true market if you ..
can't see the other players, their positions and their actions?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:14 - ID#365216)
sharefin's right on the money again
I personally am putting just about everything of consequense
( except the metals, guns, and food/storage items of course ) on
hold until after Y2K and as we approach more people will become
like minded. Why pay $30K for a car that because of a faulty embedded-chip may not run in 2000? Maybe my money would be better
spent on paying off debt and purchasing tangibles that will hold

I had a friend ( emotional female ( sorry ladies ) ) who saw a special
report where a community preparing for Y2K reported to Congress on
their scenario. After seeing this program, she immediately drove
to BJs ( a bulk price-saving club ) and bought about $600 worth of
canned goods. We will see a lot more of this as time approaches.
This may well be a case of a self-fulfilling prophesy no matter
what actually happens.

Please don't wait till its too late.

See and do a search for more prep info.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:16 - ID#35571)
They must have misplaced a decimal point

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:16 - ID#246224)
IS the gold 'market' really a market?
Or is it something else altogether, which for conveneince and image sake is portrayed as a market?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:19 - ID#246224)
If markets are all knowing - all valued ..
.. then why does market news always reflect on politics, culture, power, etc? Shouldn't it be the other way around if the markets were the oracles of this world?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:20 - ID#35571)
I see it's the daily dump gold time
Another market close nears

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:23 - ID#317193)
Brother oris gets my vote but Ben is a close far as calls go. Go Boris...go Ben. The B's have it. : )

Still waiting for an announcement on a large financial institution...well, that's just speculation...never mind.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:25 - ID#25490)
Just hope you're not standing in the way of the great gold dump coming to a market nearby soon.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:29 - ID#339274)
FYIGold could benefit when the hedgers default
FUNDS, those American money managers who attract the savings and pensions of the people and aim to make impressive returns, have the power to move markets, destroy economies and bring down governments. A combination of self-regulation and greater transparency is needed to check them. The former is likely but the latter only a wish.

These are the findings of Virtual Gold's Jessica Cross, who analyses 1 729 hedge funds quarterly. She explains how the funds work. Large ones take the money entrusted to them and borrow against it. These leveraged amounts are then invested in currency, commodity or financial instruments. When everyone else knows about it, other funds, whose actions are usually triggered by computer, follow suit.

The more money drawn into the strategy, the greater the potential profit for the hedge funds as their outlook is proved right. A self-fulfilling process is then in motion. But as the large funds begin to unwind positions and take profit, the smaller funds also respond and the potential profit margin narrows.

"Ultimately, someone, somewhere, is left holding a loss-making strategy," says Cross. "There is a limited number of chairs when the music stops. That tail-end of a fund chain will be a lossmaker. Virtual Gold's statistics suggest this is exactly what happened to many commodity trading advisor funds ( CTAs ) during the first half of 1998."

Cross notes that while her database analyses information supplied by Managed Account Reports, a New York company that looks at money under management, it is of concern that not all funds report their latest results in every quarter. "Perhaps they are reluctant to report during quarters of particularly poor financial performance, which skews the database in favour of healthier average returns."

In the six months under review, 1 453 funds managing $283-billion are analysed. "A further $15-billion is associated with funds who failed to report on the June quarter," says Cross, confident that while the sample is perhaps only a tenth of the estimated amount of money under management through 4 000 funds, the trends identified represent the whole industry.

Cross comments on the large amount of new money flowing into the funds: almost a fifth had more than doubled the amount under management at June 1998 than at December 1997 and only 26% showed reductions, most of them CTAs.

Cross notes the speed at which the Federal Reserve Bank acted to head off the potential default of Long Term Capital Management. "Banks and financial authorities have already had a wake-up call which will almost certainly result in much more stringent credit limitations and the ability to borrow for leverage."

Indeed, it would be surprising if LTCM were the only one of some 4 000 funds to experience difficulties. "There are already signs of the losses eroding away some of the long-standing averages. Only 48 funds managing $4.3-billion now enjoy average returns of more than 50% compared with 178 funds managing $10.6-billion at the end of December 1997."

Cross investigated the rate at which investors could withdraw money from the funds.

"We would say that 32% or $84-billion of our sample is not at all liquid: the money requires a minimum of a month's notice, then a wait of at least another 60 days. Another $40-billion requires at least a month's notice followed by a couple of weeks' wait before the money is released.

"If these figures are representative of the industry, we can expect a substantial time delay of months or more between a shock to the system sufficient to cause investors to give notice and the actual drain of liquidity out of the system."

Cross says it is impossible to generalise about the industry's leverage and real levels of exposure. "However, as the hedge fund business is highly geared both through borrowings and the use of derivative products, one must expect the true level of cumulative exposure to markets to be an order of magnitude greater than the amount of money under management. Consequently, any possible default or destabilising ripple-effect in any one market is potentially much greater than the raw data would suggest.

"Virtual Gold believes the anticipated review of credit lines is long overdue, very necessary and, for the authorities associated with the global financial world, probably very welcome. Hopefully, it will instil a self-regulating sense of proportion and financial sobriety in an industry which to date has shown little concern for the long-term impact of its collective presence and actions."

Cross concludes that while such self-regulation is likely, greater disclosure on the part of the funds themselves - which would go a long way towards bringing a sense of balance into the market - is something for which we can only hope.

So what might be the outcome for gold? Rumour had it that LTCM had borrowed and shorted as much as 400 tons in the gold market; Cross questions whether LTCM had the charter to take gold and even if it had, this "position" was never reflected in the cost of borrowing gold.

However: "Gold could benefit from further fund defaults if they occur and there is a serious erosion of confidence in the paper world of money, that is, a system shock."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:38 - ID#176200)
Paper everywhere! Anybody got a match?
Free Markets my foot! Several brokers I have talked to are doing record biz!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:38 - ID#306150)
@FoxMan@MonOct19@11:51and@TheMissingLink@Greenspan and@ Traders
The main insight that I get out of ALL the market action in the last couple of months is that Greenspan and his SuperComputer team are still in CONTROL. Lurkers of the world: Remember - You heard it here: First!

Gold and Silver Traders - The main insight I get from putting together APH's and other predictions here is that we are, ( obviously ) , Still In The Box ( as I posted about two weeks ago ) . Correct strategy for a conservative trader, therefore, is to Stand Aside until certain support or resistance lines are convincingly breached. ( eg. Buy Gold @ $$307-$310 with tight ( $5? ) stop loss, Sell Gold @ $287-$285 with tight ( $5? ) stop loss. Sell Silver below $4.85 and Buy above $5.05 - again with tight stop losses ( $ .06-08 ) ) . In the meanwhile stand aside. Does this make sense? Comments; APH, All?

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:44 - ID#384350)
General - $600 canned goods
Actually it's in these kinds of situations where women show their intelligence IMO.

Like, are women better drivers than men or do they just drive more cautiously, take less chances, avoid risks etc?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:48 - ID#269409)
@ Allen..."Free market"
As long as willing buyers and willing sellers are able to exchange Gold for ( fill in the blank ) currencies at rates they agree on for a moment in time, the market in Gold is a "free market".... regardless of whether "manipulation" by CB's, BIS, hedge funds, the Illuminatti, aliens from the Moon man never walked on, et al exists.

If "manipulation" replaces willing buyer/seller criteria as definition of what constitutes a "free" market, than no market anywhere, anyplace, anytime, in any THING, can be considered a "free" market. Even the price of Bluefin Tuna gets manipulated...not to mention Real Estate, gasoline, insurance premiums, medical infinitum.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 14:57 - ID#25490)
Standing on the shoulders of History, smelling smoke signals, eating breakfast
Friday October 16 1987
The first hurricane in 100 years hit London, Huge trees snapped in half, power lines fell, and windows shattered from 2 am till dawn.

Monday October 19 1987

Monday October 19 1998
A large hurricane hit Wellington. Huge trees snapped in half, power lines fell, and windows shattered from 2 am till dawn.

Thursday October 22 1998
History never repeats, I tell myself, before I go to sleep. ( Split Enz )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:00 - ID#242325)
Today;s weakness probably reflects a rumor that Argentina will soon sell all its remaining gold.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:01 - ID#365216)
somebody PLEASE tell me a good coin dealer. . .
from which to buy 1 oz. Platinum Eagle coins ( $US 100 face value ) .
I need to buy while the price is depressed as it is right now.
From one chart it looks like Platinum is at 6 yr or greater lows.
Am I correct here?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:01 - ID#306150)
@General @ 14:14
I have held the view ( privately - heh-heh ) for months that this Y2K may become the Biggest self-fullfilling prophecy of all time, ( I sincerely hope NOT ) , whether the actual computer problems are mostly solved or not. Combining ALL the various converging factors ( not the least of which is the superstition of the masses as we approach 2,000 ) gives a scenario that is not pretty to contemplate. Sorry to sound so glum folks, its not my style, but I do believe in sharing my Honest opinion.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:02 - ID#228134)
Anybody hear anything about Argentina planning gold sales?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:08 - ID#25490)
Anyone know how much Au Argentina holds?

Those winds got to 207kph, last night, that's 128 mph in real measurements

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:10 - ID#343171)
Gianni Dioro women drivers
For a great concentrated look at female drivers use your local
elementary school as your laboratory, get there 15 minutes before
the bell rings in the AM. As a closet anthropologist it is a
fascinating thing to behold as mass confusion descends, and each
day it does not get any less confused!!
The PM pick-up is OK but less frenetic, more of a social cluster.

Is gold a weenie of what? I never thought I'd be rooting for $300 gold!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:11 - ID#343171)
I think Argentina shot its wad already

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:13 - ID#266105)

GOLD Argentina's plan to sell its gold reserves hurt prices Monday.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:21 - ID#254321)
Indeflation (coined by another Kitcoite)
Cyclist: The US dollar has dropped precipitously in the last 6 weeks, but -- for now -- interest rates are dropping as well. And -- gold has not risen in full proportion to the US dollar drop. Odd.

Normally dropping interest rates stimulate the gold market -- rising interest rates in the absence of inflation certainly inhibit it.

My guestion to you is this: Just how much do US interest rates have to drop before the gold markets are stimulated? Could be alot more than one might expect.

Problem is -- we are not in a normal ( average ) situation worldwide -- with credit/financial collapses occuring all over the world. Few of us have experience with such a situation, because it occurs so rarely.

And -- the 'powers that be' are ( desperately? ) using the price of gold to keep the US dollar where they want it -- for the sake of international trade.

What will it take for this use of gold to support the US dollar to end? My guess is that it will take a serious run on the US dollar, or US stock markets before gold bullion will be free to reach equilibrium. Alternatively, when the gold bullion trading volume rises to rival the US dollar trading volume, AG et all will no longer be able to use the 'thin' gold market to control the US dollar.

When the 'powers that be' have given up on using gold to control the US dollar, then we will have our rally -- not before.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:26 - ID#20748)
buff, did you watch Prechter? What did he have to say?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:32 - ID#254288)
McWatter's and Minorca vote today on Merger

McWatters is a Canadian gold producer with about 180,000 annual gold ounces and who is cutting costs at its fine old Sigma and Kiena Mines. It also has a large land position surrounding its mines in Quebec.

Previous quarter McWatters showed a $0.03 per share Canadian profit ( I believe?? ) .

Minorca who built up a large cash reserve during the Bre-X days has no production presently, but still some cash left, about ( $6-$9 million ) and holds shares of McWatters ( 32% ) , Dayton Mining and Canarc. If Dayton Mining comes out of the doldrums it will be a valuable asset. ( Last quarter Dayton had its highest gold production ever, some 25+ thousand oz. at about $220 per oz. ) . Canarc is a Veneroso favorite with some interesting properties.

McWatters should have about 50 million shares if the merger goes thru. Minorca's McWatters holdings will be cancelled and the effect in newly issued shares will not be excessive.

Additionally McWatters has picked up an interest in a smaller high grade Hammerdown gold property in NF of Major General Resources. Richmont's Nugget Pond Mill is within range if Mcwatters decides not to build a mill and they agree to a custom milling contract.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:32 - ID#182184)
Y2K Issues ...tick ....tick
NTEOTWAWKI - It wasn't a proposal for Peoplesoft, but you're close! ( Cant post it here )

SHAREFIN - I had not heard about the Allstate/IBM deal. 18,000 AS/400s sold to only one company? A few of the IBM sales guys are probably retired, lounging on the Carribean right now

Who the hell is going to install all of that hardware for Allstate in the next year? IF ( and thats a VERY BIG IF ) the hardware is in place, what about Allstates software? Networks? Data? And were suppose to be in Good Hands??

To those that arent familiar with this stuff, an AS/400 is a old proprietary dinosaur system that IBM sells to anyone that wants a mainframe, but cant afford it. Cheaper client/server technology passed the old AS/400s long ago, but IBM has some of the best sales folks on the planet!

An analogy: Could you imagine a company trying to move all of their software and data from 18,000 old PCs to new ones in the next year? And of course, these AS/400s are more complicated.

FOR ALLSTATE ALONE, say that each one costs $50,000 for the hardware ( low estimate ) , $10,000 to install the hardware ( low estimate ) , and $25,000 ( 250 hours - low estimate ) to move the data and applications to the new hardware. Thats $2.4B, yes, Billion with a "B" JUST FOR THE NEW HARDWARE. Now lets talk about fixing the applications and data, such as Payroll, HR, General Ledger....

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:36 - ID#25490)
Just cannot believe they're still flogging AS/400s.

Got inner peace?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:40 - ID#229207)
U.S. analysts cutting Q4 and 1999 profit forecasts

And yet:

Wall St stocks firm as advance broadens out

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:41 - ID#183258)
And when Argentina is done....
watch for the announcements about gold sales from Canada followed by Tonga, Easter Island and last but certainly not least, the Vatican will announce that they have sent all of their old gold relics to the smelter and will be selling the gold.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:47 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 19

Gold 784,059 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,612,869 + 325,514 troy ounces
Copper 68,080 + 0 short tons

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:48 - ID#287186)
sharefin @ 13:01 - Y2K survivalists on buying spree in '99
New cars, trucks, 4x4's, RVs, boats, farms, homes, appliances, etc.
along with generators, tractors, pumps, livestock, etc.
1 ) after Y2K the above may not be available - get it now while they can.
2 ) if banks, etc. collapse then their loans may be "lost"

So maybe you will see a buying spree like no other.
Like the guy did in "Close Encounters" - charge credit cards to their limit or as far beyond as possible since they will be unable to collect.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:50 - ID#269128)
Yawn...who's listening anymore?
So what, Argy's are going to hawk off there remaining gold bricks and tie the noose around the doomed Yankee buck.
Does anyone really believe this made gold go down today?
No I thought not.

These thinly disguised releases are a smokescreen for th real MANIPULATION to take's looking antsy so troop out the next candidate...oh yeah New Zealand dumping 1 ton...righty ho boys load on the paper shorts let's keep this CONfidence game going..onandonandon.

Our only saviour will be if one rogue fund or country goes it alone and blasts some short stops up a few tens of dollars...from there the gold carry unwind will take us quickly to $450....until that time gold is in jail....just one cowboy needs to cut and run.

This is what really worries the paper circle...just one.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:50 - ID#365216)
when KITCO quotes act up,. . . .
go to:

Namaste and a gulp and a puff to ya'

Whoops, that's someone else; I mean:

That is all.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:52 - ID#254239)
(nj) prechter predicts third wave to come in at 8500-8700
then correct. good chance to sell he states, he also said to ignore the buy on dips and sell into this rally.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:52 - ID#365216)
to Squirrel
What you say may be true but remember to keep God in the picture.
It is not moral to purposely plan to cheat your neighbor, even
if the "law" may not be able to touch you.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:53 - ID#222186)
Argentina to sell its remaining gold
It is expected, however, that even the currently thin market will be able to absorb all 13 troy ounces of Argentina's hoard.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:54 - ID#246224)
In fact I just heard a rumor from a very good friend who has connections at the Easter Island Central Bank. Look for some very interesting news from that quarter shortly. This is SERIOUS folks! I always thought those people had rocks for brains. I guess this proves it. Go gold!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:56 - ID#20748)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 15:59 - ID#230216)
JohnD - agreed. polling this group to find out if the bottom is in means very little in the grand scheme-o-things. However, it was fun and gave us a break from reading about vacuums and lunch-box thermoses. That can get tedious........... ( I don't scroll kitco.....I read it all....mostly ) .

And when does one say a bottom is in? I am of the opinion that gold ( next year ) can make it to 325 or 340 or so. But then gold can run into a great deal of selling AGAIN. And a NEW bottom could be made. I still see gold slipping under it's current lows I am just not sure of the time table........this year? year? possibly....... This could take a number of years to achieve....................and there will be lots-o-cash to be made in between........if'n ya keep yer ears and eyes open, YES?

And then ya got this WhyTwoKay thingy happening. I truly don't know what this will do to POG. MY jury is still out. Meanwhile I will stay 'nimble' and continue to be on the 'pulse' of POG by keeping tuned to KITCO and doing my own dilligence ( sp ) ( homework? ) ...............uh huh........

Thanks John for the 'stuff' you and your genetic advisor and Ben do here at kitco. When I buy gold stocks they will be of the SA or all of yer which stox does Ben like?

away.....back to the grind

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:02 - ID#269128)
Hmmm..seems Merill was short stocks before this rally.
I wonder which other of the big players are getting creamed on a fast rising stock market...this thing gonna ruin a whole lotta folks.
Margin call! get physical only thing left.

Monday October 19, 3:37 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Merrill says small caps not bottomed yet

By Jennifer Westhoven

NEW YORK, Oct 19 ( Reuters ) - One of Wall Street's top small-cap stock
analysts, Satya Pradhuman of Merrill Lynch & Co ( NYSE:MER - news ) , said
the worst may not be over yet for the battered sector despite Monday's strong

``Whether or not we can sustain this is a big question,'' said Pradhuman in a brief telephone interview with
Reuters. ``We think this might be more short-lived.''

The Russell 2000 Index, a barometer of small-cap stocks, was up 9.11 points to 351.98. The index rose 2.66
percent, leaving gains of the blue chip indices in the dust.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:05 - ID#237299)
General @ Keeping God in the picture.
Bravo! The same goes for those that think Klinton/Greenspan/Rubin/etc.etc.etc are in control of *anything*. I believe control is the domain of One greater then these.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:08 - ID#269128)
Buffet...buying more silver perhaps?
Monday October 19, 2:46 pm Eastern Time

BLOCK TRADE - Coca-Cola 1,205,500

at 29-7/8, down 3/16, crossed by Deutsche Bank

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:10 - ID#269409)
@ John Disney
Sold all my Harmony last Thursday for a smallish gain. Now, when I get ready to buy back...... DROOY or HGMCY ?

Off to check on my SSC order!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:13 - ID#280214)
Aurator - re: N. Atlantic hurricane
I saw that sucker on the satellite photos and about dropped my teeth.
The talking head blathered on about tropical depressions in the Caribbean and nary a word about that absolutely awesome, monstrous white swirl in the N. Atlantic. Another indicator of warmer sea temperatures.

Are there any lurkers or Kitco posters who can give us a blow-by-blow update from the N. Atlantic. {Pun not intended}

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:16 - ID#183258)
@moa (Buffet...buying more silver perhaps?)

Monday October 19, 2:46 pm Eastern Time

BLOCK TRADE - Coca-Cola 1,205,500

Moa, I didn't know that Coca-Cola had silver in it !!!
Cocaine yes but silver ???

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:21 - ID#254321)
Argentinan Gold sales trouble ahead for S America?
All: I think we should go about this a bit differently. We should be focusing on why Argentina sold their gold -- if they really had not 'sold' it already.

Could also be that the insiders know something's up -- and the IMF bailout of Brazil is going to fail. Can't say the IMF track record has been particularly stellar in achieving more than help some financial types bail out, without solving any of the longer term problems.

Anyone know the details of the Brazil bailout? Is the pending injection of funds by the IMF sufficient to prevent an imminent financial collapse? When is this to happen?

I'm not too worried about just Argentinan gold sales -- but if this is a sign that all of South America is about to repeat the SEAsia financial crisis bit -- we should get out of all equities, and hunker down for Ping III.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:26 - ID#185129)
rate cut
Platinum and palladium are taking it on the chin. Seems that the market has decided that the rate cut won't prevent a recession after all. I wonder when the stock market will follow.

Mike K
(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:28 - ID#153283)
Buff, Jumpstart
Any additional detail on what Prechter said?


(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:32 - ID#237299)
I glanced at the option spreads last night and if I remember correctly the commercials were substantially long platinum, while speculators short. Usually one would expect that those in the industry to be armed with better knowledge.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:35 - ID#269128)
Cut from The Times (London)..banks in serious "digital" trouble.
The final bell tolls for the
national stock exchanges

National stock exchanges cannot possibly
survive. The London stock market will
disappear altogether, as will every other
national exchange in Europe. The process
could be complete in less than a decade with
consequences for every financial institution
in Europe and beyond. The impact on
commercial and residential property prices
and the economy of southeast England is
likely to be negative and long lasting.

The very idea of a national stock exchange is
a throwback to an ancient era when people
still breathed the same air in order to trade.
The rot set in the moment that electronic
trading began, forever separating deal from
the dealer. In that moment the London Stock
Exchange became nothing more than a
computer server.

London should have seen the writing on the
wall when the Liffe market found it was
losing the bund contract to Frankfurt's more
efficient electronic trading system. A deal
was struck in July with a proposed link
between Frankfurt and London but an
unstoppable process is continuing.

Three weeks ago Paul Arlman, chairman of
the Federation of European Stock Exchanges,
declared the new London-Frankfurt alliance
so powerful that it "will have an impact on
the entire European market", possibly leading
to one European exchange - a step that
seems more logical in the light of monetary

Such a switch is technically straightforward.
There is some resistance from exchanges who
have spent a fortune creating incompatible
electronic platforms, but not enough to
prevent a stampede into new alliances.

Eurex chief Joerg Franke is talking about
linking with Liffe. His goal is a single
European platform for derivatives trading.
The new Eurex, formed from Germany's
DTB futures and options exchange and
Switzerland's Soffex is now in talks with
France's Matif about a common platform and
clearing system.

Werner Seifert, head of the German bourse,
said recently that he is seeking new partners
for the London-Frankfurt alliance. Other
exchanges in Europe are reconsidering their
options with ripples felt in America, where
Chicago's Board of Trade has just approved a
new global trading alliance with Eurex.

The trouble with national exchanges is that
they embody national pride and psyche.
British and Americans can hardly conceive of
the death of their own markets. There are
other pressures on these exchanges, caught in
a late 20th century timewarp. In a globalised
world multinational companies want multiple
listings, allowing their stocks to be traded
across time zones. The notion of a
multinational trading only in the country
where it originated is a nonsense.
Multinationals are voting with their feet.

Then there is the Internet. Already 25 per
cent of all trades in the New York market are
via the Net, but the transformation has
hardly begun. At least one company has
floated stock on the Net, without using a
traditional market at all. What is there to
stop me selling my own share certificates on
a bulletin board?

What would happen if, say, ten
medium-sized companies created their own
co-operative exchange just for their own
shares, on the Net, with 365 days a year,
24-hour access? What would happen if two
or three large financial institutions began to
experiment with creating a broader
cybermarket, using the latest security

So it is inconceivable that national exchanges
in their current form will live beyond 2010.
Once Europe begins to trade on one
exchange, it would only take one other big
player to announce a link to set in motion a
rapid chain reaction. The result will be a
single global exchange trading continuously,
which raises the spectre of a rolling world
market crash.

Key issues in any new formations will be
trading confidence: liquidity and security.
Confidence comes with use, and with
confidence volumes and value of trades begin
to grow. But the bigger questions are these:
what happens to banks? What happens to
brokers? What happens to communities of
finance sector workers, in a virtual world?

Many banks are in serious "digital" trouble as
it is. A gathering crowd of non-banking
competitors is already taking their business,
ranging from supermarkets to airlines.
Exchanges exist to serve their members and
their members are banks and most banks are

From the investors' point of view, trading
online should be simple and cheap, enabling
someone with a computer in a hotel room to
buy and sell directly in the market. But
members insist that all trades are done via
members, who cream off profits for doing
nothing except transmitting an electronic
pulse from their server to the exchange.

What would happen if a stock market decided
to allow direct Internet access? Members
would condemn the move because it would
mean the exchange was setting itself up in
direct competition with the banks.

There could be a creative option: allow the
banks a share in a new company set up for
this purpose. But that would defeat the point
of abolishing an intermediary. Middle men of
any kind are redundant in a digital world.

The industry is in for a shock. With
commission rates falling towards zero,
old-style brokers will be unable to make a
living. They will only survive as financial
advisers. But most investors will object to
handing back every penny they have saved in
commissions. Job losses are inevitable. The
process is well under way.

Communities of financial expertise will
continue to be found in places such as
London, even if a regional or global server is
based elsewhere, because quality people often
need more than money to relocate and big
national exchanges have attracted relatively
immobile but highly skilled labour forces.

It is questionable how long that geographical
bias will last. In a virtual world any traders
anywhere can be welded into a global
investment team. London needs to wake up.
Either we take hold of the future or the
future will take hold of us - with serious
implications for the British economy.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:36 - ID#190411)
Why don't the Argentines
try selling their gold on Kitco? They could buy a banner ad cheaply, and get more for it if they were bullion coins. Sell at spot, with no refining discount.
They have stupid central bankers just like the rest.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:41 - ID#71231)
Another day in the leverage of the market
The same S&P futures trading that got so many into trouble is still greater than the trade in the stocks themselves. The stocks are being sold, whereas the futures are being bought. All the upside today was spillover from the futures market. When the premium was lower than the normal arbitrage buy signal the market fell. Of course there was a Clinton appearance to coordinate with the buy programs. Talk about rigging.

Since the FED rate cut is but a drop in the sea of liquidity that is necessary to clean up this mess, I believe that the rally is artificial and is induced by new loans to teetering trading firms and hedgies arranged by the FED. There is only this one way if you need to save the them and their banks from collapse from the weight of equity derivatives, after so much damage was done by the bond hedgeing. So far there has been little positive effect on the lower rated bonds by the FED rate change.
The divergence between the attitudes in the bond markets and behavior of the stock market are an indication of impending disaster. There is no way any of this stock market rise is natural. On such a high hopes stock market day, the FED should not have needed to hold the funds rate at 4.6% - indicating that the FED is supporting the bonds as yen carry is being unwound for the second month now.

What worries me most is that the small caps are rising on real buying, so that more wealth may be destroyed, but these are bought by small cap value and growth at a reasonable price funds and naive individuals.

The FT report of the European support for the $ ( and I assume for gold short sales ) is probably on the money, since the dollar remained weak through all of the big rebound but for today, where we saw strength for the first time in a while.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:41 - ID#432395)
Gold has dropped a few dollars. BIG DEAL! Would anyone care to be in
poor Mozel's shoes? Tossed in jail, for refusing to believe in the moon

No doubt by now the indoctrination process has begun. Poor Mozel, tied
to a chair in a dimly lit room, forced to watch old Nasa film clips!


(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:43 - ID#348129)
Bad times, closed at 1.70C$ down .30. Definitely a crisis of confidence here and IMO much lower prices in store. My guess is it's a speculative buy at .70 to 1.00 . We shall see........

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:44 - ID#183258)
I think you raise a very interesting point regarding the rumoured gold sales by Argentina.

- Has it been confirmed and what does the PR say ?

- Consider the sale in the context of how their economy is doing relative to the rest of Latin America and the world in general.

- Are they not the country that said they were selling gold because a $US peg was they way to go. ?

- Can they buy $US at a lower cost now than a few months ago ?

I think the there are 2 or three answers depending on how deep you want to dig.

1 ) The easier answer is that it is all part of global plan to keep the POG down.

2 ) They were hoping for the POG to rise a little bit more before selling but like 99% of the population, gave up waiting.

3 ) They want to cash to invest in equities because the bear market is over

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:47 - ID#43349)
The time to worry
will be when mozel comes back believing in moon landings.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:48 - ID#20748)
Gold Rubles

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:48 - ID#369352)
GENERAL - Looking for a good coin Dealer
I use Coast-To-Coast and have been very happy with the price and delivery. Their Phone # is: 1-800-638-8869. They use UPS service for delivery.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:49 - ID#269409)
@ Gibbous...A perfect vacuum
No, actually Mozel was kidnapped by scientists commissioned by the ultra secret, Tri-lateral, Illuminnatti, Rockafeller / Rothschild, Fifth column, One world banker, Moon landing fraud perpetrating, secret leadership of all Govts..

They heard that Mozel had discovered the heretofore unknown secret for the perfect vacuum. Only snippets of the hushed surveillance tape whisperings have been uncovered...something about.....


The Horror....the horror.....

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:50 - ID#340262)
Run Up
I have been looking for the earnings report for Harmony HGMCY - Saw somewhere that they would be reporting there earnings today - appreciate any info since I am holding some - This stock rally seems to be setting the stage for the ultimate showdown between the bulls and bears - suddenly all the bulls who were bearish just 4 days ago are telling us to buy into this straight up rally nothing but blue skies ahead.

Today I started taking a few small short positions ( not on my gold holdings ) on two and three point gains. The reports are there is no liquidity in the bond markets. If gold falls sharply wouldn't it be the signal for even more deflation. - Today I sold all of my non gold stock positions and will limit my activities to small short term trading -cjk-

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:51 - ID#269128)
Bear market is over....
we are now in a Gollum confirmed 2nd wave rattlesnake market...

volume of derivatives increasing while "real" trades decreases, whipsaw action will rip all market confidence to shreds until only physical commodities are left standing.

Tyler Rose
(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:53 - ID#373164)
Argentina Gold
For what it's worth, the Central Bank of Argentina listed the following amounts of gold ( denominated in the Argentina peso ) as of 12/31/97 ( 120,611,869 ) & 12/31/98 ( 1,627,224,070 ) . Can someone figure out how much gold that amounts to?

Tyler Rose
(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:54 - ID#373164)
The last date should have been 12/31/96. Sorry!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:56 - ID#269128)
Any talk of putting Social Security into physical gold?
Monday October 19 4:03 PM EDT

SEC Chief Raises Risk Questions

By MARCY GORDON AP Business Writer

WASHINGTON ( AP ) _ The government's top securities regulator jumped into the debate
over putting Social Security dollars into the stock market, raising questions about risk,
investor protection and how government control might change investment decisions.

The comments Monday by Arthur Levitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange
Commission, came as Wall Street's turbulence has caused new worries about privatizing
part of the nation's retirement system. Even supporters of the idea now caution that it can't guarantee a
comfortable old age for everyone.

Levitt, making his first public statement on the subject, said he wasn't supporting any particular proposal
for investing Social Security money in the market, and wasn't even assuming that such a change was

Aiming to rescue the government's biggest benefit program from bankruptcy in the next century, lawmakers
have made several proposals that would, in different ways, invest billions of Social Security dollars in the
stock market rather than in safe government bonds.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:56 - ID#269409)
@ Gollum / Moon Landing Mozel
That's a horrible thought! It'd be like the movie "One flew over the Cuckoo's Nest" when the big Indian discovers Jack Nicholson after the "treatment" and he's become a mental vegetable. Way too depressing to contemplate!

Somehow the thought of Mozel finally seeing the light re the Moon Landing would make me feel that the Apocolypse is it hand. I just get these warm secure feelings of "all is well" whenever I see a "Moon Walk fraud" comment as a part of a Mozel post. Don't ask me to explain it.....something about the beauty of free speech and diversity of thought.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 16:59 - ID#254288)

Argentina selling its last 800,000 ounces and praying that its dollar linked Currency Board holds water.
Pre-Peron they were one of the richest countries in the world; just look at them now.
First Peron ruined them, now even greed ridden speculators determine their actions - whatya expect.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:02 - ID#389387)
Men are tribal.

Nations and rule of law define the location of markets.

If my contract is binding by some New World Order Law, do I have to hire some Belgian barrister to plead my case at the Hague? I dont even like their waffles.

I can just see it now The KBOT ( Kitco Board of Trade ) . WE are the market. WE set the price of gold. Ahh yes the power, ahh, ahh, ahhhh.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:03 - ID#339274)
In early summer the Dollar index moved within a tight band,
100/102.Within six weeks the Feds devalued effectively
the US dollar by 10%,to stem the deflationary currents.
Gold appreciated 10% from its low.
All this manipulation is going to come home to roost
in defaults i.e. deflation or if the other CBs throw in the
towel it will become inflation.
Gold in the exchanges are being manipulated,I look at the real story
gold and silver is being bought from coinshop the minute it arrives
in the door.Last year I could have bought unlimited amounts of coins silver,where there is a shortage right now.That hasn't filtered down
to the guy in the street.
I adviced before the drop to hedge goldportfolio with puts of bigcap goldstocks.This strategy will keep you in the game if and when gold
does explode,you can sleep better when it craters and cash in your puts
when the time comes to buy more.
So the upshot is to be a trader and have your proverbial ear to
the ground.
There will be the time when the manipulation has run its course you are lucky to have gold when all those dollars
come home and washing ashore to buy assets .

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:06 - ID#432395)
I for one would love to see gold rocket into the stratosphere, but it ain't
gonna happen any time soon.
But don't you just love these $15-20 swings, ( slow as they might be ) .
Opportunity--take it.
I've doubled my money on TVX twice now, and it looks like everything is falling into place for no. 3.

Chance of getting burned one of these times?----SURE IS.
But HEY! Them's the markets.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:10 - ID#71231)
Peso sums and other quote match
The peso quantities add up to about 800000 ounces.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:14 - ID#39857)
aurator.......sounded like a real blast

stand by and back as Mother Nature implements ground action as
the wind cruises through its tour of duty...............there is no doubt
........she will humble us all. palms are touching, nothing is said....
we merely experience the energy of it all,
gold elevator is going to basement for the fire sale...
world events line up to happen......everyone is pushing
thunder has been stolen.......HANG ON TO THE WALLS AND

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:21 - ID#252391)
Easter Island Central Bank??
Now, this will make a great fictional backdrop for a conspriacy high finance mini tv series. Central Bankers pressing down gold, small centrla bank in off shore state triggers hedge funds to buy back leased gold causing strong gold rally as dollar slumps.

Right...and PT and PD keep going down because the world is affraid of recession. The deflaitionary fears really showed themselves today. When two oil pipe lines get blown up and oil drops 40 cents you know there are over riding bearish fundlementals.

Gold may have put in its low at $270 but $315 seems as farfetched a target a DOW 10,000.

How about HGMCY selling at 7.5 times earnings, down 1/4 today.

Easter Island Bunny where are you.????

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:21 - ID#183258)
Start Snip...
WASHINGTON ( AP ) _ The government's top securities regulator jumped into the debate over putting Social Security dollars into the stock market, raising questions about risk, investor protection and how government control might change investment decisions.
...End Snip

Even the thought of this borders on the insane. I don't know what percentage they are talking about but anything above 2%-5% is absolute craziness.

The article reads like this 'We screwed up our financial planning and didn't save enough so now we would like your permission to gamble in the stock market'

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:21 - ID#229207)
After the closing bell
CORRECTED - J.P. Morgan third-quarter income off 61 percent


(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:29 - ID#71231)
Commodities sliding - bad sign
Dollar is down 10% but commodities slide? Is someone in the "know" dumping them in preparation for a coordinated support for the $?

Talked to the local coin dealer this weekend, says business is between double and triple last summer's. Says that the routine Monday weakness in gold is intentional. Does not know for a fact, but thinks the 5 primary dealers fix the market every Monday for settlement of US mint purchases. The mint is slow on selling, sometimes reluctunt. They don't like selling at these prices.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:29 - ID#66144)
NJ Sorry i missed your post but as you noted Jumpstart picked up the slack.
No statements on his prior gold thoughts but we all know he is bearish. All I got was the proper spelling for Prechter. IMO his gold number well below 250 is much too low.

Gianni Dioro
(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:36 - ID#384350)
Cooljing - Female Drivers
Sure, I agree that men are maybe more skillful drivers, but insurance rates prove it.

Women are involved in more fender-bender low cost accidents, but they are more prudent and take less risks.

Men are involved in more higher-speed, more dangerous, and costlier accidents.

It's in the nature of things. Men and Women should complement each other, not strive to be equal in everything - which in turn degrades both man and woman.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:44 - ID#252391)
Harder to find that a pink bunny
is a bull on the DOW. Everybody hedges that the rally won't really go very far. Haven't heard anybody say that the DOW will make new highs in the next six months - certainly not on this board. A poll here would be 100:1 against seeing a new high in the DOW or S&P in the next 6 months.

Frankly, I think confidence is returning. Sure there will be further shocks, defaults and lower earnings and a declining growth rate in world GNP. But fundlementals don't drive the market: money flows do. Declines back to 7800 on the DOW will be met with money that's waiting on the sidelines.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:46 - ID#343171)
Gianni Dioro
male/female, yin/yang. we should complement each other, the more simple and honest the better the chances for it. My wife and I offset each other
fairly well, but my ego gets in there and mucks things up a bit, hey
but thats a guy thing so its OK!

Are we going to go thru another drop to the $280s drill again?
Its a good thing gold is a maleable metal!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:47 - ID#288186)
Oro; That's interesting comments from your coin dealer. That there may be
several "BIG" dealers that fix the price lower on Monday's is
something I haven't heard before. Could we get comments from our
kitcoite coin dealers?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:51 - ID#253153)
I would not rule out the possibility of the Dow rising to 8600-8800 but we
are stll in a confirmed Dow Theory primary bear market. Commodities declined today and crude oil closed at $13.5 bb. This bear will drive everyone insane before he is done with the equities market. The bear will
fool just about about every one. As I have posted before, the deflationary trend in force can't be reversed or stopped by any politician or central banker. It will run to exhaustion. Sure, the fed will fight it by lowering interest rates and tax cuts but it will not help. Commodities, equities and interest rates will decline to some very low levels before the bottom is in. I'm currently on vacation and will not be posting for the next 2 weeks.

Bully Beef
(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:57 - ID#260119)
You know I think we goldbugs are all wrong.
We know there is a fix and it is proved time and time again. What somebody who is smart around here, should do,is tell me how to frenquently buy and sell these clockwerk undulations in the POG.It is down to roughly 289 and back up to roughly 302 time and time again. I know the bulb is slow to come on but the illumination is wonderful.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 17:58 - ID#229207)
Went to my local coin store this weekend, too. No St. Gaudens at all. He chalked that up to TV, Internet, and Flight Magazine promos. Just goes to show what you can do with 1990's info technology to promo a commodity in limited supply. I wonder who well gold would do in general if gold were promoted heavily on these media. Hmmmm.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:15 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.54. The 233 day moving average is 28.73 and we have been below it for 35 consecutive trading days.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:16 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .247. The 233 day moving average is also .247

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:23 - ID#433172)
Bully Beef
Like milking a cow, you gots to relax then sqeeze from top to bottom.

I got this going on a particular stock ( royl ) have done real well over the past 6 months. Silver lends itself to such a play.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:26 - ID#26793)
FAQ: should I buy gold?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:26 - ID#269409)
@ New Highs/Lows ratio, NYSE
Hmmm, first time in months I've seen the New Highs surpass New Lows on the NYSE. Not to mention gainers outpacing losers by a 3:1 margin...and last but not least the past week being one of the best in market history with the Nasdaq outperforming even the mighty DOW.

This Bear market may have seen it's lows.

Those who continue to look for the deflationary collapse of all time, need to explain to me how this will cause a rise in the price of Gold. I have yet to see a compelling ( or uncompelling ) argument to explain this.

In a massive deflation, the dollar will be king. As it was in the great depression.

No matter though....massive deflationary collapse in the U.S. economy will remain an academic consideration here at Kitco. In reality.....volatility will remain and the worst is past.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:32 - ID#247428)
Tyler Rose
Less then 8 tonnes of gold from Argintine sales.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:32 - ID#254321)
Gold equities: What to watch in this short term traders heaven
All: I don't know what is going to happen in the near future -- but I do know that if the commodity price goes below 200 ( cry0 ) , it is lookout below for gold equities. Also -- if South America goes under, we will have another test of gold bullion in the $280/oz range, and gold equities will go to record lows once again. Finally, if we have a liquidity crisis due to loss of confidence from a derivatives fiasco, gold is likely to go down as well.

It does not matter how much the premium is on gold coins, and how much gold coin buying is going on -- that may be a sign of what is to come, but it does not tell us which way gold will go tomorrow.

Personally, I will feel much better about investing in gold equities after the next major deflationary/debt collapse event. Not now.

But -- if the US dollar continues to drop -- gold will look better. Unlikely, since other countries the world over seem poised to reduce rates as well. So -- the US dollar has probably dropped as much as it will for some time -- IMHO.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:41 - ID#348127)

Sell all your GRERF about 10:00 EST tomorrow and I will take it off your hands for a buck and a quarter. I like the odds on this one as long as we get a spike up in the POG in the next 1-2 months.
By the way, I am the same sucker who was gobbling up those crummy GSR and RANGY shares recently.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:47 - ID#348257)
Have you checked out CRK today?
Hope I have been of service, my man. ( ;- )

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:55 - ID#348257)
John Disney
Date: Mon Oct 19 1998 13:25
John Disney ( ..hate "calls" .. love numbers ) ID#24135:
Copyright  1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To all ..
I believe that the "call" of the year without a doubt
was that of my brother Oris .. who warned of serious
trouble brewing in the Soviet Union.. His call was
made in the interest of helping his Kitco brothers..
He doesnt write a newsletter and is not trying to make
a name for himself as a GURU..

John, Bayybeee...Remember when I said, maybe a year or so ago, that Russia was a basket case, a ruined society, and that it would take 2, maybe 3 generations for it to recover to the level of just the average sick society in this world? And Brother Oris got upset with me...until I let him know I am half Russian. And that I was not dissing the Russian people in an historical sense...only that they are among the most stiff-necked, fat-headed folks in the world and that their brand of communism has roooooned them for Lord knows how long. I am glad to see Brother Oris, of whom I am very fond, and share certain bad habits with, has come out of denial.

Bill Buckler
(Mon Oct 19 1998 18:58 - ID#256381)
Gold - Three Weeks - $US 4.00
On a $US 1 x 3 Point and Figure chart, Gold has just "triple topped" at $US 300. That is the upper line drawn in the sand. The BIS has been rumoured to have drawn another line in the sand at $US 280, and indeed when Gold fell below $US 280 in late August, it only stayed there for four days.

The $A-$US Gold comparison charts have just been updated at the website. Both charts are in very tight distribution patterns that cannot be maintained much longer. In particular, Gold has been in a $US 4.00 range ( $US 296-300 ) ever since September 30.

We know that it is getting harder to borrow money in the U.S.. We know that Mr Greenspan is VERY concerned about the collateral valuation underpinning existing U.S. bank loans - he has told us so. And we know that the markets are expecting still more Fed rate cuts, the next "official" chance to do so being the next FOMC meeeting on November 17.

And we know that when the collateral valuations behind bank loans goes bad, no amount of interest rate tinkering will redress the situation. Picture, if you will, a "reverse" Tug of War. That's what the Fed is engaged in at present.

Meanwhile, meeting in Oporto ( Portugal ) the Heads of State of the Latin American nations have called for an IMF "contingency fund" to stave off collapse, on the basis that they ( the Latin American nations ) are the "world's last line of defense against a 'grave global recession'."

See this Nando Times article:

The event that is said to have triggered Gold's latest fall from $US 300 is a rumour that Argentina is about to sell its "Gold reserves". Of course, while these rumours are being bandied about, Argentina is one of the Latin American nations in Oporto pressing for an "IMF contingency fund" to make sure they don't go under, no matter what they sell off.

U.S. banks weren't greatly exposed to Asia. They weren't greatly exposed to Russia either, but the hedge funds were, and the U.S. banks were exposed to them. But U.S. banks ARE greatly exposed to Latin America. The camel is getting a very sore back. Mr Greenspan has every right to be worried.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:03 - ID#348257)
you cut me to the quick! haven't I been just about the only one around here jumping up and down and crying "bottom" and predicting DOW 8400 lickety split? And lo and behold, here we are, even faster than I anticipated? New highs? well....wait just a darn minute. I never promised a Rose Garden. Though Jimmy Carter might be kinda reassuring right about now. For a few reasons.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:05 - ID#229207)
I always hang out with optimists because they're a lot more fun at the party than the guys who are telling me the world's gonna end. But optimists make bad investment decisions just like pessimists. The discipline is to be realistic. I aspire to it.

You appear to be playing devil's advocate for the wishful thinkers. Wishful thinking is a cultural trademark among us Americans. I think it has to do with poor memory, ignorance of history, and short attention span. The latter is now the most important. The attention span of the average American stock market investor can be measured in minutes. Without a continuous stream of crisis news, the market will go back to where it was before any bad news was delivered. The collapse of the Russian economy is ancient history, an insignificant event in a tiny country, with no real impact on the world economy. With $500B committed, Japan shall rise again. Brazil, with $30B pledged by the IMF, is in no threat of collapse. LTCM was an aberration. Recession fears, although predicted by the stock market in July and August and supported by decreased Q3 and 1999 corporate earnings projections by analysists across the board, are not justified. In short, all the press about the Global Financial Crisis, the G7 meeting two weeks ago, all hysteria and neurotic disasterizing.

The market will continue to rise indefinately. Why not?

I'm not so sure about "cash is king." That was true in a deflation when cash was backed by gold. But with no currency backed by gold, it's possible for all currencies to collapse. The question is whether or not you believe a debt crisis will occur as a result of the depression. Stock prices are keeping the average American's debt/asset ratio in the black, so a stock market correction and a few layoffs will send individuals and the corporations they'll stop buying from into a liquidation frenzy. If you do believe that will happen, then inflation or default are the only two options for the nation that owes the world $3T and its own people another $3T. Niether inflation nor deflation will do much good for the value of the dollar.

So what if the the velocity of money goes to zero?

"If no one has any money, then who will buy gold?" goes the argument that deflation means the price of gold falls. Those who can afford to will buy it at the price you have to pay with the buying power of the dollar after the dollar collapses. Imagine a world where the average working man needs a $1000 bill to buy the week's groceries, but he's paid only $3000 a month if he has a job at all.



(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:05 - ID#269409)
@ Mike Sheller, CRK
11% gain call! Wish I had heeded your advice sooner. Too late or you think we'll see continued movement? Takeover candidate the rationale for today's move? I have an SSC order set for tomorrow at 11/16...maybe I'll try a little CRK too.

At least Loral made a 7% gain today! Un gold related though it may be. ( I sold a big block, hoping to get it back cheaper later this week....churn & burn... )

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:06 - ID#348257)
Bill Buckler
Times like these are assuaged by a glinting glass of "Oporto" by the fireside. Or the glow of the TV screen if you don't have a fireplace.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:15 - ID#348257)
Now I really worry about the hands America's rocket science is in.

LGB, bayby, you did NOT look at zee chart. Yes, 11% TODAY, but up over a dollar on FRIDAY, from 3.50. Remember, my tip to you was on October 14. Sorry, I really can't do much better. Forgive me.
I gainsay I have once again brought you the opportunity to watch in wonder at what the stars and planets can do, and your observation skills have been a tad wanting. This is the second time I have given you, nay HANDED you, lovingly, roughly 50% gains in a week. All for the cause of la astrologia. I will make you a believer, my will soon be mine...

PS - I really wanted you to see how a REAL astrologer does it, not a moon-watcher who we all know, but I will not deign to mention his name. He is fond of dissing astrology...something I expect that YOU will no longer do. Or do I have to turn somersaults too?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:17 - ID#254239)
(mike k ) prechter's only response before being cutoff politely
by cnbc was one big warning don't listen to the dipsters get out while you still can

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:22 - ID#290172)
Latin America Backgrounders
July 22, 1998
Brazil bounces back. Brazil's banking sector has also had a rough ride. In 1994, Brazilian banks had it made. With inflation running around 2,000% in 1994, earning money on what came in and what went out was a piece of cake.

But after President Fernando Henrique Cardoso tightened Brazil's monetary policy through the Real Plan, banks lost their ability to make money on inflation spreads.So many had to relearn basic banking skills, such as how to squeeze profits out of lending and deposit-taking.

It soon became survival of the fittest. Between 1995 and 1997, nearly 100 financial institutions, including 50 banks, disappeared, either because of bad management, corruption or fraud. The cost of private bank failures to the government amounted to $21 billion.>
The above site has good backgrounders on 100 Top Latin American Banks;
Andean countries; Mexico, Argentina. Read 'em and pray. {:- )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:23 - ID#31868)
Donald, Namaste' and a fine gulp to ya...the article you just posted on gold...well...
Hmmmmmmmmmm...he talks of putting all your eggs in one basket...DUH! investing 101...he talks of Asia but does not mention that in each country the price of gold in fact it served its role...and the final piece in the hilarity is the writer's belief that the US dollar is almighty and will never lose its value...American arrogance to the max...yup...uh huh...

oh other little teeny tiny detail is missing...for every sale of gold there obviously must be a buyer...there are some very wealthy jerks doing the buying...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:27 - ID#290456)
This little article ( from OCT 13 ) didn't hurt the stock either:

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:29 - ID#343171)
Donald re: FAQ article
Obviously the sap who wrote the article was not an Indonesian!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:29 - ID#29048)
LGB and Mike Sheller
CRK reiterated a buy today by Fahnestock.

Bear Sterns rated it a buy in August.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:34 - ID#257312)
With a Gulp and a Puff

Swallowed hard and bought some calls on a certain Gold stock today. Said stock was slightly below 12. Calls are for strike price 15, expiring Jan 16, 1999. Got 'em @ 11/16ths. Won't name the stock, but here is a hint-- My good bud Augie ( August von Finck to those not tight with him ) likes it. Disney and Jeil would say, "DOH!"

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:37 - ID#348257)
"Buy" ratings from brokers? I don't need no stinking "Buy" ratings from brokers.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:39 - ID#424394)
Mozel could be just the first to go, I may be next
Then tolerant1 and some other outspoken anti-government types
who have been pegged as dissidents by the Reno bunch because they
stockpile gold, grub, and guns and don't like Clinton or Reno.
Write the FBI to find out what they will tell you that they know.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:40 - ID#288186)
Per the EWT Short Term Update, technical measures support the view
that we are approaching the end of this second wave rally on the
DOW. Resistance levels are 8492 ( where wave C=A in the advance from
the 7468 low of Oct. 8th ) ,then 8561 ( this is the underside of the
DOW's 200-day moving average ) , then 8642 ( the fibonacci 62% retracement
of the entire Primary wave 1 decline ) , and finally 8754 ( the Intermediate
degree 2nd wave price high ) .

It was noted that the advance/decline ratio has closed lower each day since last Thursday's Fed rate cut. It was 1.79 for today. Also, falling
breadth is another indicator of market softness.

So, if you believe Elliott Wave Theory can greatly point to where we're
going ( as opposed to where we've been ) then take heed! This ties in with
what Robert Prechter apparently said earlier today. See earlier posts
regarding Prechter's appearance on tv. Thanks, Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:46 - ID#290456)
Free access for next 2 wks

Permission was given to give broad access to this
site for a 2 wk trial.

Use my username: hixson
password: thmetal

Interesting cycle projection oscillator forecasts
for precious metals and commodities, plus an
Elliott Wave analysis ( Wavesof the Future ) updated

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:47 - ID#31868)
Grizz, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...according to the documents this country was
founded on that would put them in the anti-American fun camps...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:48 - ID#31868)
Grizz, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...according to the documents this country was
founded on that would put THEM in the anti-American fun camps...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 19:50 - ID#43349)
There are also some optimists who predict the world is going to end, but they tend to be fanatics if not outright cultists.

And them there are pessimists who say everything is going to keep on.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:05 - ID#43349)
Paper is not doing do well either

Maybe the Fed should start printing more to bail them out.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:07 - ID#269128)
Merge and purge...derivatives that is....
This is exactly what UBS-SBC did before the $1bill bite.

Monday October 19, 7:51 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Deutsche, Bankers in takeover talks-report

NEW YORK, Oct 19 ( Reuters ) - German banking giant Deutsche Bank has opened
preliminary takeover talks with Bankers Trust Corp. of the United States, according to
the British financial daily newspaper, the Financial Times.

`` ( A ) deal would be the largest takeover of a U.S. bank by a non-U.S. bank,'' the paper
said in a three-paragraph fax announcing the publication of the story in its Oct. 20

On Monday, a source at the newspaper's New York office confirmed to Reuters that the report was due to be
published on Tuesday, but declined to give details.

Collapse averted for now.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:08 - ID#43349)
Thet's not a noife, now ere's a noife.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:10 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheller
Brother Mike,

Don't try to steal my victory. A year a so ago you got upset
me because you called Russians "slaves and stuff", which has
nothing to do with economic problems of hit the
people, not the economy.You even got Miro, who is not a big
fan of Russians, to answer you...remember?

O'key, lets share it 50/50...what do you say?

By the way, Reify and me were right - you dropped price of
gold today by more than $3. Could you please bring it back
again, say...5$ by Thursday?...Would be very nice of you.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:10 - ID#288186)
Silverbaron; Cool website! Thanks for letting us log in to it. It will be interesting
to see how their Elliot Wave Analysis compares to Prechter's.
I glimpsed through it and, regarding Gold, 325 level seems to be
quite important. Prechter thinks that we will get a rally to
roughly the 323-325 area and then it will top and then decline in
another bear market leg to below 200. This site, on the other hand,
is looking for gold to push higher once it reaches this 325 area.
I should have printed it 1st, cause now I can't remember how their
wave analysis went, exactly. Oh, well. It's there for others to
view. Thanks again, partner! Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:13 - ID#43349)
Interesting find. I have been wondering when we would hear something about the big banks. Bailing out a hedge fund is one thing, but letting it be known a large bank is in trouble is another. Sometimes the Fed works quietly.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:15 - ID#45173)
Wow. That's heavy, man.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:17 - ID#269128)
Smoke,smoke, puff, puff,... where's the fire?

Friday October 16, 3:03 pm Eastern Time

Bankers Trust denies financial woes rumors

NEW YORK, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - Bankers Trust Corp. on Friday saw its stock fall on
rumors of financial woes, which were denied by a BT spokesman and discounted by an

Bankers Trust's stock on Friday was down 4-7/8 to 52-7/16 on the rumors. A BT spokesman said the allegations
were ``absolutely false'' and that the firm was in ``sound financial condition.''

The company has announced twice in the last month that it was in sound financial shape in response to rating
agencies cutting its debt ratings.

The latest rumors included allegations that the bank borrowed funds at Federal Reserve Bank of New York's
discount window. The Fed Bank's lending facility includes extension of emergency credits, which indicates
distress of a bank's balance sheet. The rumor was discounted by Goldman Sachs banking analyst Robert

``Any idiot who would look at their balance sheet would notice that they have $40 billion of purchased money
supported by $60 billion of liquid assets,'' Albertson said. ``They are net Fed funds suppliers and are highly

BT has been bloodied by recent global financial turmoil, suffering losses in emerging markets. Analysts now
expect the bank to lose between $3 and $4 a share in the third quarter.

``It could be a little better or worse, but not to the extent of the rumors we're hearing,'' Albertson said.

In the corporate bond market, Bankers Trust's 10-year paper was quoted unchanged at a bid spread of 300 basis
points, traders said.

``BT paper has not even really been trading .... There's just many rumors flying around,'' said one high-grade
bank trader.

A trader at a U.S. primary dealership said, ``It's the same thing that goes around every second week.''

Another trader also said he had heard nothing fresh. ``I've heard their name associated with the some of this
concern that the Fed moved ( to cut interest rates ) because there is a bank or a brokerage on the brink of failing,
but I don't know anything concrete about it,'' he said.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:21 - ID#288286)
What was post with ssc about. Some one said they had order in at 1 and 1/8. Can not figure out what the post was abou.t

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:22 - ID#43349)
So maybe just a touch of inflation wouldn't be all that bad...
Fed's Moskow says "delicate period" for banks amid global woes

Fed's Moskow says US economic risk toward slower growth

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:25 - ID#269128)
I'd say Deutshce Bank is winning at the moment...
hursday October 15, 5:23 am Eastern Time

HKMA declines to comment on HSBC stake

HONG KONG, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( HKMA )
declined to comment on Thursday on rumours in London that Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell was bidding for part of the HKMA's stake in HSBC Holdings Plc ( quote from
Yahoo! UK & Ireland: HSBA.L ) .

``We don't comment on market rumours,'' a spokesman said.

Shares in HSBC jumped in London trading on talk that Deutsche Morgan Grenfell was bidding for part of the
stake held by the HKMA following the authority's intervention in the Hong Kong stock market in August.

A Deutsche Bank spokesman in Singapore declined to comment on the talk. ``We decline to comment on trading
activities,'' he said. A spokesman for HSBC also declined to comment.

Market sources said Deutsche Bank had executed buy orders for HSBC on Thursday on behalf of clients as part
of the investment bank's normal business activities.

Shares in HSBC rose HK$4.00, or 2.52 percent, in Hong Kong on Thursday to close at HK$162.50.

Must have the good "science"...or is it luck?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:25 - ID#43349)
The calm at the eye

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:27 - ID#43349)
Fed types are out in droves tomorrow

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:28 - ID#288186)
Silverbaron; I read Peter DeSario's commentary on gold again and it looks
like he agrees with Prechter long term. He talks about gold being
in a diagonal triangle wave c decline from the the $502.30 high of
Dec. 1987, with the decline from the $416.70 high of Feb 1996 to
the $273.00 low of Aug '98, the 3rd wave of the diagonal. So we
would be in a 4th wave advance ( corrective type pattern ) if and when
gold reaches at least $325.80. Am I reading this right? He doesn't
go on to say what happens from there, but I gather it goes way down
like Prechter's pattern does. Help me out here....TIA Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:35 - ID#267276)
Can anyone tell me what Prechter had to say on CNBC today ? Thanks

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:37 - ID#269128)
Bankers Trust to report massive losses.

How many other corpses in the financial jungle?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:38 - ID#257312)
Gollum @ 20:08

Made my day! Amidst all the doom and gloom, some uplifting news. A big G&P to that fisherman.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:39 - ID#43349)
Run Alan, run!!
Big banks in trouble?,2633,15311-2,00.html

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:40 - ID#348257)
Brother Oris
You are right. I was really commenting on the overall Russian situation, culturally, philosophically, etc. Whereas you homed in on the timing for this economic misfortune.
Not even 50/50 - I say it's more like 80 oris/20 mike.

I will make it up to you with a few days of rising gold prices coming right up. Choose a nice pickle with which to celebrate!

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:44 - ID#295111)
Clif Droke rates Durban Deep a buy
an excerpt from one of his letters.....

"Finally, one stock that deserves commentaryif only for the immense amount of attention given it recentlyis Durban Deep ( Nasdaq:DROOY, recent price $3 9/16/share ) . This stock has been favorably reviewed in a recent issue of Jim Blanchard's excellent Gold Newsletter, as well as many other newsletters, and has also captured the imagination of a large number of gold stock investors. Its chart has traced out a very bullish pattern that portends even higher prices ahead. Trading volume for this stock has never been better, and this is a positive sign.

As long as Durban Deep holds above $3.50/share, we rate this stock a definite buy."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:46 - ID#271455)
Prechter said people are being told to invest in equities for the future.

He believes this advice is unsound because he sees stock prices going much lower after the third wave. I don't know much about the third wave but it sounds bad.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:48 - ID#267276)

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:49 - ID#43349)
Bailouts and mergers
Just when you thought the Lusitania's passengers were all doomed, along comes the Titanic and Andrea Doria to rescue them.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:50 - ID#290456)

Yup - you got it about right....he says this is a fourth wave....down below $290.2, then up to at least $325.8 ( and he also mentions a $90 advance from the low, which would put his upside target at $363 ) .

Unlike Prechter, he doesn't speculate on how far down the 5th wave would go. That's way too far out for me to worry about now, anyhoo.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:51 - ID#348257)
Prechter Schmechter
let us not overly idolize Mr P. Whilst he is indeed a brilliant fellow, he WAS outspokenly looking for the world to come to an end around 4300 on the Dow. The rest is history. Some comments earlier in the day were flying about re Market letter writers, etc. I have found, in my own humble experience, that very few set out to gull the public. Most are attracted by the game. Breathes there an intelligent, reasonably educated person who does not think " I can do this...there's a fortune to be made, all one needs is smarts!"? I give you Kitco as my exhibit A. And a wonderful exhibition it is.

The Market Letter writers I have know, been associated with, and even done some work for ( a name or two would be recognizable ) here and there over the years, were all either visionary or ideologists in their own way. They really believed ( and still do ) in their views of the future and the machinations of the markets and history they feel they have unveiled. To be wrong is not a sin. To bring your fellow investor and speculator a tidbit that could not be acquired any other way is actually quite a decent service. The Kitco Krowd is quite well-versed in the vagaries of man and markets. Not all investors are. There is much to learn...always. Sometimes a guru is a welcome figure in a life. It is a blessing to find people about whom one can say "I always learn something from him or her." May we all have such fortune.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:54 - ID#333126)
Nomura records a $1 billion loss

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Oct 19 1998 20:55 - ID#295111)
Thx for allowing us to use your hixson Id.
The gold chart is pretty inspriring.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:01 - ID#288186)
Silverbaron; Sounds like we're lookin' at it the same. I agree with you, too.
It's too far down the road ( according to him maybe a year's worth
of zig-zags as wave 4 advances ) to worry about it now. Of course,
I'm still going to worry somewhat. I just want to tackle this gold
market, one step at a time. My hopes are to profit from the move
from here ( or 290ish ) to the 325 area, and then get out and see where
we're at. Then step 2 will have to be determined at that time.
Thanks. See ya, Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:05 - ID#251168)
NZ hasn't got 1 tonne of gold. As far as I can make out, NZ official holding = zilch.

better check your atlas, Wellington in S Pacific, not N Atlantic. :- )

By my figuring Argentina has 24 tonnes of gold. More than me, but probably less than Nick@C. that's less than 1/10 of 1% of world mined gold according to most sources ( whom I am now v distrustful of ) of 135,000 tonnes.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:06 - ID#238422)
Mike Sheller
Upon your suggestion the pickle is chosen and ready to eat.
Two untouched 1.8 liter ones are positioned in a suitable
place with excess time of less than 30 seconds. I'm in standby
mode, waiting for your signal or just Kitco quote to start
rock-n-roll. May the force be with you, and I got the drink...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:09 - ID#290456)
Tantalus Rex

No problemo.....When I requested the trial access I told the webmaster that there would likely be several hundred hits on his site every time he updated it, and that he would hopefully to get a few subscribers from the activity.

In any case, it's free, so at least worth the price of admission. Maybe there's something to the projections....the Cycles method reminds me a lot of how Jeil's projections are constructed.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:10 - ID#190411)
Isn't it just about the right moment to short

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:10 - ID#43349)
Hot money hurricanes and whipsaws
Financial hurricanes are much like natural hurricanes. The intensity builds untill it seems like nothing can last another minute.

Then it gets calm. Blue sky breaks open, and a bit of sun shines down on storm tossed waves. Small bits of scud slide across the sky, and the air smells fresh and clean.

It's just the eye.

The back side of the storm, after the eye, is the worst. Instead of the wind building gradually, you are hit with the full force immediately. The wind cuts back from the opposite direction and already weakened trees and structures are whipsawed back like the way a pit bull whips a freshly caught rabbit back and forth.

Where once there were big hedge funds, now there are big banks. Where once there were big corporations, now there are entire countries.

The eye gives one a chance.

A chance to secure loosened lines, check the shutters, get a few supplies, and nail everything down a little better.

Maybe we'll make it, maybe we won't.

In any case, we're done with preliminaries.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:12 - ID#190411)
Good one Gollum!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:13 - ID#288186)
Mike S; Agreed...Never fully trust a newletter writer/a trading system/ or a
guru by itself. Use all 3, decide which should be followed "contrarion
style" ( as in, do the opposite ) , and most importantly look to your fellow
Astrologer for sound advice!! BTW, when is the Leonid Meteor Storm supposed to be at it's peak? I thought the time frame was Nov 14th-20th.
If you care to comment...great! Otherwise, no big deal. See-ya. Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:16 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check
Price of Bonds on April 17th: 119.00 ( before skyrocketing to as high as 135.00! )
Price of Bonds today: 130.00

Price of Gold on April 17th: 315 ( before plummeting to as low as 272 in August )
Price of Gold today: 296

Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 13:31
farfel ( The Hashimoto's just around the bend, yes? ) ID#340302:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

No, this is definitely not the time to be long treasuries and short gold.
Not at all.



(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:21 - ID#43349)
Banks are the last to go
Hedge funds are in hock to the banks. When things go bad the banks are quick to issue margin calls and ask for more collateral.

Many if not most big banks, however often eliminate the middle man and run their own carry trades and hedging calls right from their trading desks. When things go badly they do NOT issue margin calls to their creditors. Oh no. They keep it quiet and try to work it out. Instead of three days to meet the margin they have untill the next visit from the auditors.

They hit the discount window at the Fed and every place else they can think of. They DO NOT issue press statements.

Right now we are between the acts. The final curtain has a few scenes yet to go.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:22 - ID#429270)
Give me your tired, your poor...

In industry news, Russia is considering minting gold and silver

coins from state reserves to back the ruble, a senior official

told Russia's NTV commercial television on Sunday.

Dmitry Ignatyev, deputy head of the state precious metals reserve

Gokhran, said the final stage of consultations between Gokhran and

the central bank would take place on Monday and the plan could

take effect next month.

If the plan goes ahead, the coins could be used as a means of

payment and be traded on exchanges, he added.

gert frobe
(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:23 - ID#42963)
@ Mike Sheller: What is the astrological reason for huge inflation
by 2005?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:24 - ID#290456)

Do you spend a lot of your time just digging up dirt on people who've made forecasts that turned out to be wrong?

Why? Don't you know that they feel rotten already about missing their forecasts? Especially if they bet real money on them!

What's the point in rubbing salt in the wound?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:27 - ID#288186)
Gollum. Well put...We have yet to see the results. Right now we're on a
commercial break....The final hour of the show will follow.
Then we'll find out...Who dunnit!!! ( only this time it won't be
the butler. It'll be the banker! )

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:31 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated
Climbing the wall of worry.

It does seem that we're in the eye.
I've sailed through a few of them.
Very eloquently versed.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:40 - ID#263456) are wasting your breath

on Realistic...He is one of those PIA type guys that you hate to be around....


(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:41 - ID#43349)
A scenario
Many hedge funds got in trouble by betting that the dollar would stay strong, rates would stay high, and one could aritrage high yield junk bonds against low yield treasuries.

That didn't work out too well.

Now they are betting rates will continue to decline as the economy slows and the dcline in the dollar has been overdone.

But what if a big US bank or two get in trouble which brings a fresh run on the dollar?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:47 - ID#290456)

I suppose so...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:49 - ID#43349)
Fresh horses

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:50 - ID#348257)
gert frobe
Fair question. Among other things, I particularly watch aspects ( geometric angular relationships ) that the planet Pluto makes to significant points in the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange. Pluto's orbit takes 240 years for a full cycle, so though this planet is "small" by physical standards, the "effect" ( or, better, the synchronism ) of its relationship to any other degree or planet in a given horoscope is a major background phenomenon of fairly powerful longterm effect. So, for instance, when silver peaked at $50 per oz. in 1979, Pluto at 19 Libra was in EXACT opposition ( 180 degrees ) to NYSE Moon ( the occult significator of silver ) at 19 Aries. Other important aspects ( 60 degree, 90 degrees, etc ) corroborate the relationship throughout history. The next major angle Pluto makes to NYSE Moon is a "trine" of 120 degrees, coming from 2003 to 2005. A trine is a very supportive angle. I figure it this way - if silver peaked at $50 per ounce at a Pluto OPPOSITION ( the word connotes the stress of the aspect ) , then what will silver do when it gets a lovely trine from Pluto? At the same time, Pluto at 19 Sagittarius conjuncts ( lines up with ) significant Planets in the corporate horoscopes of many gold and silver mining companies, and oil & gas companies. Far too many of which have important planetary features placed between 18 and 22-23 Sagittarius. This indicates to me a major period of excitation for PM's & energy and resources in general. Now, since everything currently is in the pits, I would have to place my bet that that period of astrological excitation will synchronize with a likely major crest in these issues and commodity groups. Making the tie-in with inflation is a simple step after that. Hope this is of some help. I comnsider this to be an extremely important clue to the future.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:52 - ID#43349)
Rubin's speech

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:56 - ID#288186)
I don't know about anyone else, but the only place I can find a story(or one
liner, in this case ) about the Argentina gold sale, is on the
Bloomberg website. Anyone find more on the story?
You know, I used to scan their website daily just to read their
commentary on gold and I gotta tell ya. It's usually just a short
one-liner comment, and there were times I left that site scratching
my head. I mean, they would say "so-and-so" caused gold to move up/down
today, and they would be totally off! I wish I had a good example, but
it has been several months ago when I last read their comments. Go
to, click on news, then click on international-market
snapshot. Read their comments daily and let me know if they jive with
all the other news commentators regarding gold...Fox-man

(Mon Oct 19 1998 21:57 - ID#255151)
"Pentagon Says Stop Bashing Clinton or Face Punishment"

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:00 - ID#190411)
Why too kay Wackos
Have got 90% junk bags to a nice even dollar over spot, according to RJ's site.
I did mention to him that I thought that would be the case, and, he should load up on bags'o'silver.

Hey Realistic, please regurgitate my posts on shorting BKX. You could have made a pile on shorting Citicorp, if you had only listened to me.
Much more than your vaunted US 30 year a**wipe. More than shorting each and every guy you rag at here, excepting Puetz.

gert frobe
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:01 - ID#42963)
Astrological Indications of future inflation
Mike, thanks for explaining your rational for 2003-5.
My theory is that outer planet squares and oppositions, ie.
in 1980, have quite a bit of inflationary potential but probably
need to be in signs like pisces and virgo ( 1980 ) .Perhaps Saturn squaring
Neptune ( now ) has been awful for gold because of sign position.

So Pluto opposing Saturn and the nodes in mutables ( 2003 ) could also
be quite inflationary?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:03 - ID#31868)
My latest favorite commercial is the one for the Internet with people of every kind
telling you one day there won't be paper money...Hmmmmmmmmm...

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:04 - ID#348257)
I can see where a professional military would not only be contemptuous of this "commander in cheat", but would also be contemptuous of the "American People" who put him there and seem to support him so warmly.
While I am a foe of involuntary servitude of any kind, and know whereof I speak having paid such dues, it almost makes one wonder about the merits of a truly , you'll pardon the expression, "democratic" draft. Now I know why military juntas stage coups.

Fragging anyone?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:05 - ID#346277)
gert frobe!
Are you THE gert frobe---goldfinger-- that used to be in the bond market?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:09 - ID#287279)
"Had a chat with my old friend Burt Blumert of Camino Coin about the gold bullion market. Burt notes that the premiums of most bullion coins have risen substantially over the price of gold: St. Gaudens have risen over the past year from $450 to $480 while the price of gold has fallen; British sovereigns ( slightly under 1/4 ounce of gold ) used to cost him about $1 over melt, now they cost him $9 over melt, a 12-15% premium; other European gold bullion coins now carry 6-8% premiums over their gold content.
Silver has gone even crazier. A bag of junk silver was available at spot in May, about $3500, meaning no premium over the value of the silver contained; now a bag is $4400 and silver itself hasn't changed.
Clearly, the demand from Y2K preparers has pushed up junk silver. Like other supplies, such as dehydrated food, there is only so much junk silver to be had. Much has been melted over the years and with the price of silver low for long periods, the market in it has grown thin.
I think the same thing is happening to gold. Enough people are buying British sovereigns to push their premium up. The price of gold is unaffected because it is determined in a different market. In that market central banks have been selling thousands of tons of gold. The Y2K demand has not made an impact. What it has done is put the US Mint on double shifts producing American one ounce golden eagles. That's where your bargain is right now: US Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs, both sold at a small premium over gold content. I just bought some more Eagles for $311 apiece when gold was about $296.50; you do the math. Burt calls this price "subsidized" because the US Mint is not recognizing the premium that bullion coins are fetching elsewhere in the world.
The price of gold is manipulated by central government sales and loans of their stocks. I'm not alone in believing that the price is being held arificially low by these actions and that someday, perhaps in the near future, we will see much higher prices."

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:10 - ID#348257)
gert frobe
I find that a direct aspect on a planet in a chart is more reliable and more "predictable" than transiting planet-to- transiting planet aspects. Also, while the sign from which the aspect comes has significance ( as everyone at Kitco knows ) , the effect will be powerful nevertheless. Think of it this way - Sagittariius is ruled by Jupiter, so here you do have a very "expansionary" signification. The case gets subtly stronger, I'd say.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:12 - ID#255151)
Mike Sheller

From what I can gather, the military has a greater knowldege of, and respect for, the Constitution than most civilians.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:12 - ID#252150)
In a foul mood this evening. After making some nice gains on my PDG short
last week I got stopped out of my dumb ABX Fri. long @ a .50 share loss this morn. Nothing like starting the week with a loss to put one in a lousy mood. Spent the last several hours gazing out on the st. of Juan De Fuca & quaffing a few ales. Beautiful day here with all manner of ships, tankers & sailboats sailing past my den window. Also harbour aircraft darting in & out. In a melancholy mood because my beautiful 28 yr old daughter who I have been estranged from for 5 yrs & had'nt seen for 11 yrs was here last week for 5 days. Maybe you Dads who are close to, but far away from your daughters will indulge me this:

Although the sun is shining
It does'nt shine for me
My Lisa has departed
And I'm lost in reverie
For too few fleeting moments
Her smile lit up my day
But now there are only shadows
Because Lisa is far away

Listening to Maria Callas does'nt seem to help either.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:14 - ID#348257)
gert frobe
Perhaps Pluto opposing Saturn in 2003 is a dynamic blend of tension between two planets that have roots in similar industry group significations - ie: Saturn, planet of mines, rocky structures, earth crust, etc, and Pluto - plutonic Lord of the Underground, riches of the earth, deep earth crust activity, etc.
The word Volcanic comes to mind. Sort of how I see silver in that time period.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:16 - ID#43349)
That's all folks
Away for another night. Good night.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:16 - ID#348257)
I guess if you are going to be made into hamburger over it, you had better have some knowledge and respect for the Constitution.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:19 - ID#348257)
Maria Callas is NOT the antidote to what you're experiencing. But I appluad your taste in background music. My son lives in China, and though we are not estranged, and very close, it can be very melancholy being so far apart. It's not easy being a parent. But I guess that's apparent to you.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:19 - ID#411271)
Opinions and _s_holes everyone has one, what's yours? Opinion pls.
Yesterday Mike Sheller proposed a kitco poll , has gold bottomed. How about a discussion of who do you vote for the manipulitive force or reason for keeping gold rangebound and depressed?

gert frobe
(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:20 - ID#42963)
@Muse Bond Got Me in the movie. This is a real-life struggle.To the

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:23 - ID#341312)
Junk bags-a buck over spot?
Why would anyone pay 1.00 over spot for really beat up 90% coins when you can get .9999 pure Maples sealed in a vacuum pak for .65-.85 over spot ( local dealer ) ? Aren't they looking around at different dealers? Or is it one of these "Git-yer-y2k-survival-silver-righ-cheer" type of things? Course what do I know. I paid 2.00 over spot ( 6.00 ) for Eagles in March. I did notice that my low cost numismatic favorite, rolls of common date Peace dollars in VF-AU condition is up nicely to about $200 or so from $160 earlier in the year.
And, since nobody asked, I hereby nominate Goldbelt Resources ( GDB.V ) as Kitco "Dog A Da Year". It's a REAL penny stock. Literally. I asked the stockbroker about it, if it was dead or what, and he said "No, it's just resting. The Norwegian Blue-er, Goldbelt's got beautiful plumage, don't it?" Personally, I think it's joined the choir invisible.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:26 - ID#284255)
Walker Market Commentary
In our last issue on 10/1 the market had been rallying, but we were
suspicious and were looking for a retest of the 9/1 lows. We did see

that test of the lows as the market dropped for the next week,
bottoming on 10/8.

That low on 10/8 looks like an important bottom. The market
internals were quite a bit stronger than when the market was down
around those levels on 9/1. That is a "bullish divergence" in the
market internals, a big positive for the market. We did have some
concerns about the price action, as the market broke down through
the 9/1 lows on most of the stock indexes that we follow - SP500,
NYSE Composite, NASDAQ, Russell 2000. However, the DJIA did not
break its 9/1 low of 7401, a positive development for the bulls.

Another thing that has us feeling better about the bulls
chances is the prevailing sentiment on Wall Street ( and
Main Street ) . Even with the DJIA up for two consecutive
weeks ( and up more than 500 points last week ) , sentiment
remains very bearish. And there is that little matter of
the Newsweek cover last week - it featured a story about
the "Crash of '99". Long time readers will remember when
we pointed out the bull on the cover of Newsweek in late
April. That bull called the top of the broad market almost
to the day. Do you suppose this crash cover will pick the
bottom and make Newsweek two for two this year? Many
people think of the idea of a Newsweek cover as a market
indicator is a joke, but we take it very seriously. When a
general newsmagazine gets around to putting out a cover
story about the stock market, that means the story has
reached a high level of pervasiveness in the general
population. And if the idea of a market crash is
pervasive, there is a good chance that almost everyone who
is going to sell has already sold. And if there aren't any
( or many ) sellers, the price can only go in one direction
- up.

Of course, we can always find things to worry about. Right
now we are worrying about a few price levels just above
the market that might prove to be significant resistance
to further rally. In particular, the highs from the late
September rally are just a bit overhead on the SP500 at
1066. That level ( 10 SP500 points above the Friday close )
should slow down the advance for a bit and will probably
bring in some sellers. In addition, the market is
overbought on a short term basis. In other words it has
rallied a very long way in a very short amount of time.
When combined with that resistance level, we would not be
surprised to see the market pullback some in the next few

You will note that our strategies have now mostly moved
back into the market. We are almost always nervous when
our model jumps back into the market, and this time is no
exception. However, the bottom line is that things are
starting to look quite a bit healthier.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:27 - ID#433143)
Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission
Y2k letter to all water agent people.. hrmm.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:28 - ID#433143)
Page 2
heh sorry Bart, large file size but cool...

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:36 - ID#411259)
..... This is not RJ..... But a Mystery Ghost .....

The double bottom in platinum shouts for attention. They will try to hit the stops overseas this very eve. Large fund short sales, placed these last couple-o-weeks, must be covered. I can' imagine a target lower than $328. Any speculator would look at $328 and decide that now would be a good time to cover. The noblest of metals has been a lame and crippled laggard O these last few months. It may still tread some water, but I am personally buying the stuff here.

Gold is range bound. $294 - $304. They will whack it again this year.

I like silver here. I'm buyin' it.

OK....... I'm not RJ, just a specter.....

But, as a ghost, I too also indeey and similarly likewise will be gone for a time, yes?

Righty Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo



(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:41 - ID#287279)
From PC Magazine's Jim Seymour:

"Many power-industry experts admit privately that they think large-scale and extended power outages, beginning in January, 2000, are inevitable. And one more thing: January 1, 2000, is in the dead of winter."

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:46 - ID#411271)
My own opinion. I will review all & post results
I've read here @ kitco everything from the IMF, the treasury, the collective euro countries and others as the force behind the depression of POG.

For my vote I offer organized crime, the mafia.

It is important to know ones enemies. I think the purpose for the suppression of POG is for ease

of accumulation of same. Now some postulates: what is the wealthiest entity on earth. Organized crime.

What entity is cross generational enough to plot a 40 year conspiracy to bring about a one world government? Uh huh organized crime. If anyone has read any of my other posts you know I fully believe Y2K is a planned event, that will precipitate martial law worldwide. It will wipe all financial ledgers clean

and yeild chaos and anarchy. The mafia definitely holds Russia in its pocket. Isn't this well known. Look at their gambit for getting gold. Gonna make coins out of it huh? Wait until after the mid term elections to see Clinton's real character. These midterms may well be the last national elections here in the states so don't think he is worried about handing over an in tact democratic party to Al Gore.

If you assume a different world post Y2K, if you assume Clinton is a pawn to the worldwide organized crime efforts to establish one world government, then can you believe every downturn in the

Dow will be bought back up, and every measure necessary including using large hedge funds that suck the liquidity out of world governments forcing CBs to sell gold to protect their currencies will continue to happen and become more extreme after the elections.

Yeah this isn't a fully developed treatise and you can say I am full of it. I am only pulling together intuitively all that I have read here and elsewhere on the internet. I would even like to be proven conclusively to be wrong so I can rest my worries.

I have one very important question that I have asked before in this forum. When CBs sell, who buys? To say boullion dealers is not an answer. Who are the boullion dealers ? C'mon people their is just a given quantity of gold on this planet. If what was formerly so widely held by CB is now not so largely held by banks who then is accumulating gold. Answer that and you will know who is suppressing the price of Gold.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:51 - ID#240327)
Note from Nuclear engineer on Yourdon Forum
It takes 4 months minimum to cool down a nuclear core to the point where the failure of the cooling system will not damage the core. This is one strong factor in the NRC's commitment to shut down non-compliant reactors in July 1999 rather than later.

Thought: If cooling down these cores requires the reactors be taken off line, AND the fact that these reactors contribute 22% of the national power source, AND 40% of the power in the north east, AND 50+% of the power in the Chicago area, then ..

What happens of the grid becomes unstable due to taking these units off line. What is the possibility that the grid will not be able to support the disengagement of the nukes for the 4 or 5 months it will take to cool them down? Core thermal melt down damage which will render them completely useless in the future?

And what alternative is there to this scenario .. in the middle of summer 1999?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:53 - ID#240327)
And what of France

Which uses 80% nuclear power?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:59 - ID#288232)


facts........just the facts....from the privateer.......

(Mon Oct 19 1998 22:59 - ID#200274)
Russian depositers
kind of sounds strange, like commander in chief Clinton. There was a story on NPR today about Russian depositers having their accounts frozen. They were being required in some cases to move deposits to the "State Bank." Many have refused and wait in line for days at their banks in hope of withdrawing "money." I see why they would prefer to hold gold!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:08 - ID#240288)
RAN 22:46

I was hearing estimates of the cocaine trade as being 100 billion US$ a year back in the late 1980's. No doubt these guys bought a s*load of Gold. They also very likely bought stocks, bonds, judges, governments, etc. They could be as leveraged as joe six-pack with debt. In other words, it may not be going so well for the bad guys either. I really think this Y2K thing has caught the big boys with their pants down. They got a good deal going now. Why risk it with power outages and riots?

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:11 - ID#389171)
I thought Argentina sold ALL of its gold reserve several months ago.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:36 - ID#401460)

Sounds like you are talking about Clintons and Friends, Lassiter etc. Drugs, Commodities, Gold, caught with pants down, etc. etc.


(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:40 - ID#411271)
@auric, because maybe they are tired of ruling through intermediaries
and pretending to do well. I see your point about an orderly world being more productive, yet with an understanding of gold as being the only true wealth & coming from a perspective of wealth beyond our imigination already what else do they have to "play" for exceprt the whole enchilada. all
the power and all the worlds gold. Reorganize everything to your liking,
have a one world government, one bank, one currency- gold ( and you hold it all ) . The devastation and cost in art, life etc. is inconceivable but
so are the morals of organized crime. Look at Russia today!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:42 - ID#227290)
Gold up so far tonight
At 11:36 EST, Dec gold up .40 at 298.20. Dec silver is down 1.5 at 4.87 and the bond is down 1 tick at 129.25.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:45 - ID#411163)
Anyone else feel like this is the calm before the storm
The last week or two I have had the feeling something really, really big is brewing. I can't put my finger on it but its like you can feel
someone watching you.
Also found a spot that sells #00 buckshot for $6.00 a box of 25-thats like gold at $100/oz

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:46 - ID#411271)
auric, James Davidson in his publication "Strategic Investment"
has written of WJCs trips to Russia prior to completion of his college days. The idea of Russia as mafia ruled and Clinton as influenced by his early association is all Davidson's original idea, not mine.

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:48 - ID#284255)
Email just in - Who's thinking about it???
Greetings ring members, A quick note to let everyone know that the Y2K Personal Preparedness ring is NUMBER ONE in the top 100 rings in news and current events. We just passed the Monica Lewinsky Ring! We have generated 33,153 hits in the last eight weeks. I'm so proud of all of you and what you are doing to help the individuals and families who are searching for products and information regarding Y2K. A webring is only as good as it's members and you guys are tops! We are making a difference. Keep up the great work! Micki Ringmistress

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:51 - ID#266105)

Interview with Harmony Gold managing director 10/19:

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:51 - ID#411271)
hey look at my 22.19 and then some of my other posts.
I've lost the _A behind my moniker. Does that mean I am off probation or what. In any event-- COOL!!!!!!

(Mon Oct 19 1998 23:59 - ID#401460)

OK, Who is screwing around with the Gold price.