Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:03 - ID#401460)
Just lost two bucks?
October 19, 1998
11:40PM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:04 - ID#254288)

It could be possible that the underworld cartels are laundering much of their fiat money into gold bullion by purchasing large quantites of the gold leased by CB's. If the politicians try to get this gold I wouldn't want to be in their ( the politicians ) shoes.
Using troops will be another Nam.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:06 - ID#401460)
Kitco Gold Graph


(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:19 - ID#386245)
Sharefin--a promise is a promise.
Date: Mon Oct 20 1997 05:25
Nick ( @Canberra ) ID#386245:
Nick@Oz-- we're not supposed to tout shares on this chat
site so I'm not gonna tell you
to buy Acacia Resources ( AAA ) or Ross Mining ( RSM ) on
any pullbacks ( Just
because you would double your money in the next couple of
years ) . So, sorry mate I
can't give you any hot tips!! PS--I'm gonna mark this post
and quote it to you a year
from now!!
A promise is a promise. AAA's range this year has been 1.04 to 2.95, today 2.37 to 2.42. RSM's range this year has been .50 to 1.04, today 1.01 to 1.04. Nice volatility, huh. I have been in 'n out of AAA several times. I would love for them to correct sharply so I could buy more. RSM also looks great on the chart. Could double again from here in the next year. See why I like to trade. Cheers, Nick.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:24 - ID#401460)
Clinton's spokesman

McCurry: Clinton `stupid' in personal life

PITTSBURGH ( AP ) - Former White House spokesman Mike McCurry drew cheers and applause Monday when he described President Clinton as a ``richly qualified leader'' who was ``exasperatingly stupid'' in his personal life.

When one man asked how McCurry felt about leaving the White House after three years, McCurry jumped in the air, spread his arms wide and shouted ``Free at last!''

History will never forget the Monica Lewinsky scandal, he said.

``I think there will be an asterisk next to his name in the record books,'' he said. Clinton's presidency ``will always be marred - stained - by the episode with Monica Lewinsky.''

He spared no criticism for the White House press corps, saying he was ``literally stunned'' in many press briefings during the Lewinsky scandal when reporters failed to ask a single question about other issues.

But McCurry admitted he was duped by Clinton's initial public claim that he didn't have
an affair with Lewinsky.

``I was aware of the potential for deception, but I just didn't want to believe he had the capacity to deceive,'' McCurry said.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:31 - ID#401460)

First Chrysler now Bankers Trust, it would appear that Germany and the EURO are taking over.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:33 - ID#261102)
According to Yahoo quotes GLDFY has cratered from 14 to 1 3/4. Is this real and if so does anyone know why?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:33 - ID#25490)
Asterix & Obelix
Nick, if any newspapers get wind of your intention to sell your gold stockpile, why, it'd depress the POG to $225. So don't say a word!


Does this:

`I think there will be an asterisk next to his name in the record books,'

mean that we now call him C*?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:34 - ID#401460)
Deutsche Bank & Bankers Trust

Report: Deutsche Bank in preliminary talks with Bankers Trust


(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:44 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Thank you, brother John, for kind words.
Honestly, I feel like I'm of no use for you,
brother, nobody tries to attack you any more,
and I got nobody to fight in the name of justice
and our brotherhood. May be you can pick up some
enemies, please? I got to have some action...point
me in the right direction...any crisis in your area
or may be at least some hostile doggie barking at
honorable Ben...and some animal control is required...?
Let's do something...MIGs are rusting and pilots are
drinking and Natasha threatens to leave...I urgently
need some flowers, I know you got some...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:53 - ID#252150)
Mike Sheller@Thanks for your kind reply. I plan on seeing my daughter
as often as possible & hope that you can do the same with your son. BTW, re: astrology, you are starting to make a believer of me.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:55 - ID#210114)
Totally Stuffed
Gold now falling in every currency including the US$.

Totally stuffed.

World financial upheaval, President undergoing impeachment hearings, uncertainty everywhere...

and gold getting hammered.

Abandon the sinking ship my fellow Kitcoites.

Gold is dead.

Mourn.... Mourn....

Live Long and Prosper

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:58 - ID#31868)
Spock, Namaste' and a gulp to are is totally stuffed into my
pockets...vaults...let us see as paper burns...yup...uh huh...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:58 - ID#350145)
gold price in japan and germany
since the price of gold has recently dropped dramatically in yen and marks it would make sense, i think, that consumption of said would increase in those countries. does anyone have any info on this?

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 00:59 - ID#24135)
you're good .. you're really good ..
For Mike my man ..
Ill never forget that call of yours .. BUT that was
the call of the year for the PRIOR YEAR !!! Oris got
it for THIS YEAR.
Also you had the full force of the stellar universe
behind you !! By brother Oris uses only vodka and few
pickles .. I had to take that into account ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:00 - ID#210114)
Germany and Japan
Small time investors aren't going to drive gold higher. If institutional investors and central banks give up on gold ( and they are ) then the few sales of 1 ounce coins aren't going to save anyone's a%@

Find a new diety.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:04 - ID#344326)
Have you sold YOUR gold? Do you have any? I must admit that I have seen you post on here for some time and you claim to want nothing more than to see gold go through the roof, but you waste no time posting whatever negatives you can find on gold. I don't understand. Me thinks you are a bear dressing in bull's clothing. Make up your mind.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:05 - ID#25490)
spitting into the wind.....
I too have noticed that JD has not been stirring up the hornets lately and kitco has lost an edge. I've been thinking of changing his name from crusty to sweetie pie. Perhaps we do need ziva back. Or some religious/idealogical zealot to shake of this dull slumber. Is there any truth in the rumour that ziva was actually Greenspan?


(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:06 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now....
Will check gold price tommorrow morning. I appropriate, I will be heading off to see my gold and get out while I'm still ( slightly ) ahead.

My patience is exhausted.

I've had enough.

I'd have been better off with the money in the bank.

Live Long and Prosper.

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:07 - ID#24135)
Tombstone used to be a fun place ..
for Oris ..
You're right .. too quiet around here .. Problem
is BIG BART .. He's brought LAW and ORDER to Tombstone.
Lets roll out those rusty MIGS and buy Natasha a new
mini skirt.
Get ready to RUMBLE ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:08 - ID#252150)
Caught prechter on CNBC today. Man! Has the bull mkt that he said would never
last ever aged him. The last time I remember seeing him, he looked like a college student, now he looks like a well tenured Prof. Also saw Tice today. My feeling is that those guys + Grant, Stack, Fleckenstein & few others are very bright & their time in the limelight is here. The equity bulls were right, although for the wrong reasons but their time is past.
Now the bears will rule. Almost like the revenge of the nerds.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:09 - ID#31868)
Spock, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...1,900,000,000 1 ounce orders would make a
dent in the gold hoard...unless you expect a nuclear exchange to wipe out Asia, India and the Middle East...oh yea...and the 7300 Goldbugs in the USA...and the 1800 Goldbugs in Australie and New Zealand...and of course I am sure they would purchase a few more than one...and as far as the 7500 Goldbugs in the USA we are spead out over the entire country so somebody better have a whole bunch of backpacks...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:09 - ID#210114)
Sorry about the typo.
See my gold is 'sell my gold'.

I have tried to post positives; to no avail.

I have held gold now for 16 months, and got next to nothing out of it.

Have tried to be open minded about goldbug's claims, but have never seen the projected bull.

Except for March, gold has been below $US300 all year with no sign of a breakout.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:11 - ID#238422)
Who cares about those coins...
There is much bigger action going on...

Live long & Prosper.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:12 - ID#384350)
Bankers Trust & Deutsche Bank
What is that expression - strange...strange bedfellows?

Is it, Strange company makes for strange bedfellows?
Can someone please post?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:12 - ID#210114)
1.9 billion ounces
Have not been bought. Even when stock markets are collapsing left right and centre.

Where is the promised saviour for gold??

If it can't rally in circumstances like these, when will it rally??

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:15 - ID#344326)
Sell, you'll be happier. No doubt in my mind.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:15 - ID#290202)
I ( would have ) thought that Vulcans would be the perfect traders.....

No emotions...

No fear...No greed

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:16 - ID#31868)
Spock, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...being a GoldBug is an art form as well as a belief
and way to protect wealth...all those little coins are being purchased...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:17 - ID#290202)
I ( would have ) thought that Vulcans would be the perfect traders.....

No emotions...

No fear...No greed

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:19 - ID#24135)
Ah heard eet on zee grappvine
sotto voce ..

I ave hearrd zat a certaine meestaire Zhim Blan-SHARDE
he buy zee Druids at a disqwount of zum 25 pair cents..
Perhaps zees eez a refairance to a so called cashe
offairing or zomzing lak zat .. ah dondo ..
Eet eez zee waird on zee rue .. er street.
Please forget zat ah said zees..onlee a rumour..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:20 - ID#254274)
you of all people....
get a hold of yourself, mister
stay the course....
focus, and hold on.

We all get like this in the fray...
But we will endure.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:21 - ID#210114)
Happier; No doubt.
About the only good thing I've got out of all this is a much better understanding about how the global financial system does and doesn't work.

It's been a real eye opener.

No fear, no greed. Agreed number one. But one does expect to see a steady growth of profit. Not gyrations of $A30 an ounce in 48 hours.

Until a new internation monetary arrangement comes into being which decides ONE WAY OR ANOTHER what the future of gold is, there will always be the threat of central bank sales keeping a lid on the gold price. Profits will be limited, downside risks high.

Market not trading on fundamentals. And it won't till decision is made about what to do with central bank gold.

Happy trading gentlemen.

Live Long and prosper.

Jim Bob
(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:22 - ID#249395)
bondsman re: gldfy
Goldfields SA has spun off shares in the other Goldfields and in evidently an investment bank holding co. Goldfields SA was apparently a small part of GLDFY. I've seen Goldfields SA recommended numerous times lately as they have been restructuring, so I guess we wait to see what shares we own in these spin-offs and hope we got ADR's in both to possibly sell and re-purchase more GLDFY. GLDFY is one of my best performers.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:24 - ID#290202)
Sorry about that double post
It was not intentional. I changed browsers ( upgrade? ) and now sometimes
the message gets stuck in COMMAND=ENTER. If I don't catch it in time...
double post.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:29 - ID#386245)
Mike Sheller/Auracious
Mike-- If Sagitarius were opposed to Taurus, would that make it Vegetarius?? Still waiting for that copper rhino, mate. Have you seen it lately?

Auracious-- What gold?? I sold it all to buy Microsoft!! Agree with you, mate. JD has been too nice lately. What happened to kicking sand into dwarves faces?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:29 - ID#210114)
Happy Trails Gentlemen
Signing off.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:31 - ID#238422)
Ziva is Greenspan????????
Damn, I knew something was wrong...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:32 - ID#252150)
I have found my metier. Over the last several months I have been doing
more & more short term trading & am almost at the point that I am strictly day trading. Make my bets by 10.30 a.m. on which direction the few stocks + indices I follow will go & place my bets & then cover before the close if I'm not stopped out with a profit or loss. Sleep much better at night. With big bets even .20 gains add up substantially.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:32 - ID#25490)
Greetings pointy-eared one.
First, please understand in your

"Not gyrations of $A30 an ounce in 48 hours."

is no condemnation of gold, but of the $Aus. That ounce of precious was the same 48 hours ago, it is the fiat currency that is behaving like a full balloon zipping around the room in a crazy randomness. One day we shall look on the floor and see some flacid unattractive thing of no use and recognise how much air was needed to pump it up. That day, Noone will want to touch it, yecch. That day, all will realise that gold don't gyrate.

No 2

Where didja get the 1,9 bill oz from brother? TIA

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:33 - ID#344326)
It ain't easy being a goldbug....
Spock, there is no question gold has not performed as it should. With the dollar down so much, gold should have taken off. It's clear to me ( and to you ) that gold is manipulated. How long can that go on is the question you need to ask yourself? If the answer is that the CBs and governments can always keep the POG down, then you should sell. I think there is a limit as to how long this charade can go on. At some point, the dam breaks. My guess is when the EURO launches. If gold doesn't do well by the second quarter of 99, then I've had it too.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:34 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Always ready, brother John.
Good night...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:37 - ID#344326)
I miss her.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:37 - ID#25490)

I always used to laughingly say that I was born under the sign of a bustop, until I met my ma and discovered I was.

I hope you read about Kassim Bono a day or so ago. I know where I can get the stamps. Just don't tell Andy Smith you're selling gold.

ziva = Andy Smith?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:41 - ID#25490)
you stepped off the 12 step programme, brother?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:41 - ID#290202)
Some good advice that I've been given about trading
Decide in advance...If the market does this, I do that. Never wish. Never
hope ( in trading ) . Never hold on for a better price to bail out of a losing
position. Never watch it go all the way back down to where you bought +.
Know where you are, where the market is, where it's been, where it should
go, and when to get out. And, Never, Never Be Afraid To Jump Right Back
In!!! when it turns. ( SPOCK, this last one's for you buddy )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:45 - ID#344326)
How'd you know?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:47 - ID#386245)
I miss ziva too. I liked it when you talked dirty to her. We could have done without the triple 20,000 word posts however.

Kassim Bono? Missed that, mate.Any relation to Sonny??
Can you chart xperts out there help me with this one?? Whither goest Aussie gold index??
Cheers, Nick@sitting on a picket fence.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:52 - ID#255151)

For goodness sakes, keep at least 5% of your assets in Gold. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Insurance against the unexpected, eh!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:53 - ID#25490)
out to dinner, Thai, back soon, then we talk again, yes?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:54 - ID#346209)
XAU appears to have formed a h/s top, since late Sept.
James? From where do you look out at the Jaun de Fuca St?
Tolerant, thanks for response re e-gold last night

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:56 - ID#386245)
Still removing the barbs, mate. Point taken. Deeds speak louder than speak louder than speak louder with beer...hang on...I'll get this right if I can find my phrase book among these piles of bullion.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 01:57 - ID#344326)
"We could have done without the triple 20,000 word posts however." You have me rolling on the floor with that one. I remember that. I discovered Kitco about a year ago. Kitco had me rolling on the floor just about every night. Seems the last few months though, Kitco has lost a bit of it's color. What would Kitco be without alot of kookie people? Who was the one that critiqued Kitco on his web page? Something about entering the rubber room and all that....I loved it. Whoever he was though ( I can't remember ) he came down hard on Mozel though. I got real mad at that.

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:00 - ID#24135)
never listen to ghosts ..
to platinum junkies ..
that double bottom is really a
half @ss formation .. continuation
on the way to 310..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:01 - ID#252150)
Never, never be afraid to jump right back in if it turns!
Hard to do, but invaluable advice. For me the key is to forget about commissions, although even on webbroker in Canada we still pay a lot more than the U.S. And they really screw us on short sales. Nevertheless, by jumping in & out of a stock sometimes 3 or 4 times ( because of close stops ) in 1 day I've make some excellent gains. Persistence pays off.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:07 - ID#284255)
Here's a longer view.
Interesting to see the level it's just bounced off.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:10 - ID#290202)
That last item was given to me by our own APH. He's a mighty good
trader, and a good human being.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:23 - ID#341227)
@SHAREFIN...GOLD and other matters...
Sorry for my late response but I spent the day in San Diego attending the funeral of one of my old buddies.


Sharefin said...

My comments certainly weren't a thesis.
I don't have a doctorate. ^o-o^

Farfel says....

Don't worry...a thesis does not require a Doctorate, merely a Bachelors Degree...rather, a dissertation is what gains you your Doctorate.

Sharefin says...

As to gold shares falling
When the Dow tanks?

What happened to gold stock prices last October?
Go and have a look!!!

Farfel says...

Remember, Sharefin, that in Oct, '97, America's little 500 point dump occurred at the time America's Dollar was EXTREMELY STRONG and gaining strength. The impending equities/bond debacle will likely take place with a falling, weak US DOLLAR. The deterioration of the American buck is in full swing now. That's the big difference.

Sharefin says...

And honestly we haven't seen a Dow crash as yet.
Wait and see if gold stocks go down when the Dow falls 20% in one day.

Farfel says...

Again, so long as the US Dollar is also tanking, gold stocks should be fantastic performers. The key is the US Dollar. Also, the economic environment triggering the debacle is of considerable importance. If it is stagflation, then bonds will be decimated, leaving Gold and Silver the last populist flight to safety.

Sharefin says...

As to what has happened of late with gold shares.
To me it is rotation out of high flying shares into way underpriced gold shares.
Selling high and buying low.

Farfel Says...

Nonsense, rotation cannot account for investors moving from traditional stocks into much maligned, gold stocks strongly shunned by Wall Street this past decade. This movement represents a psychological, paradigm shift that is mounting in momentum and scale.

Sharefin says...

As yet there is no gold bull.
Check out the physical gold price.

Farfel says...

Just as Big Money investors ( Street institutions, billionaires, etc. ) were the first to launch the Nineties DOW bull with stock prices at record lows, we are now seeing them begin to position their investments in PM's. Ergo, the gold bull has begun, independent of the actions of the gold price itself.



(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:25 - ID#252150)
Savage@So true about APH. IMO, he is the most accurate & important
contributor we have on this forum.

A quote from Oscar Wilde before I retire:

"I quite agree that all men of genius are insane, but you forget that all sane people are idiots".

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:31 - ID#341227)
THOUGHTS on the rumored Argentinian Gold Sale...
This particular tired old rumor has been running around the gold market for over half a year. Gold shorts have recently brought it out of the dusty closet to try and scare the longs. The tactic remains less and less effective as gold fell a mere four bucks on extremely low volume. If it had fallen on high volume, there might be cause for concern.

Again, the only really important question is this:

Who is buying?

For example, if Japan were the buyer, then gold shorts would have great cause for concern. Japan appears to be positioning itself to challenge US hegemony in the global economy and gold may serve as its vehicle for such a purpose.



(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:31 - ID#284255)
Harry Brown

"He thinks there will not be bank runs. Also, gold's price will probably not go up over the next six months. "

KLM says Millennium Bug may ground flights

Max Rens, KLM head of information, said: ``We don't trust the governments. We think that they are too late. They are not pro-active. I see no action from Brussels. I'm fearful that we will not be ready in time; there will be delays and detours. Planes will stay on the ground and this means capital will not be generating money. Within half a year, some airlines will be facing bankruptcy.''

lefty kiwi
(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:33 - ID#32176)
to all goldbugs don't lose the faith
Gold should be making a low here , I have been long gold for two years and am glad the price is down now .....
I would not liked to have seen a high here for gold
Christopher Carolan in 1992 .. called 24/7/98 as a major turning point for the sharemarket , ( 20/7/98 was the top for the sharemarket )

The same mathematics give 18th October ( plus or minus 7 days ) as a very important date for gold ..... A LOW NOW IS VERY BULLISH FOR GOLD....
A low now using Carolans Spiral Calendar ( which works ) is good news


(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:34 - ID#284255)

Off to surf
Riding the waves of the Tsunami ^o-o^

(Tue Oct 20 1998 02:48 - ID#248180)
ORIS, Brother - Too Quiet Here? This will stir em up.

 Farrakhan Questions Clinton Aides
Monday, October 19, 1998; 11:53 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan questioned Monday whether the Clinton administration's Middle East policy is clouded by Jews who advise the president.

``Every Jewish person that is around the president is a dual citizen of Israel and the United States of America,'' Farrakhan said during a news conference at the National Press Club. ``And sometimes, we have to raise the question, `Are you more loyal to the state of Israel than you are to the best interests of the United States of America?'''

Farrakhan mentioned by name National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and outgoing presidential adviser Rahm Emanuel, although none is a citizen of Israel.

During his speech, Farrakhan also urged Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat not to yield to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Middle East peace talks that were occurring on the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

``I would beg my brother Arafat not to give in and make himself a tool of Israel's policy to destroy the militant members of Hamas in the name of, `I'm frightened because we need a guarantee of security,''' the black minister said.

The comments came a day after Farrakhan criticized the Rev. Jesse Jackson, another high-profile black leader, for supporting U.S. raids on terrorist sites in the Sudan and Afghanistan. During the same television appearance, Farrakhan suggested a Zionist plot was behind President Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky.

P.J. Crowley, spokesman for the National Security Council, dismissed Farrakhan's allegations during an interview from the site of the peace talks.

``The president is here meeting with both Chairman Arafat and Prime Minister Netanyahu because reaching a just and comprehensive peace in the Middle East is intrinsically in the interest of the American people, the Israeli people and the Palestinian people,'' Crowley said.

``Fortunately, Louis Farrakhan does not reflect the mainstream thinking of the American people, who have long been committed to peace in the Middle East.''

 Copyright 1998 The Associated Press

Paul Gold
(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:06 - ID#21484)
DROOY raises R58 million
Durban Roodepoort Deep raised R58 million ( about US$10 million ) to fund the feasibility study for its Argonaut project. See for detail.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:16 - ID#386245)
@the Kitco rubber room
It is very nice where they have taken me. I get three meals a day and get to sleep in a nice room with padded walls. When I talk too much about gold, they come in and give me a nice white jacket to wear. The nice fellows help me to put it on and even tie the sleeves together behind my back for me. I have a little bit of trouble when my nose gets itchy, but I have solved this problem by rubbing it against the rubber walls. Every night before I go to sleep they bring me some nice little white pills. I take the opportunity to tell them about Y2K and ask them if they have bought any more gold coins. They assure me that they have. Soon I am very sleepy and I dream about gold. When I wake up they help me out of my nice jacket and they let me sit in a big room with other gold bugs. We talk about gold all day long. With every meal we get more of those little white pills. They make me feel so relaxed. The other day the lights went out. I asked one of the nice attendants if it was January, 2000 yet. He said no and gave me some more of those nice little white pills. It is time for sleepies now. I am in my room, with my nice coat on, have had my pills...I hope all you other gold bugs are as happy as I am.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:24 - ID#25490)
perfect perforations in purgatory..
Kassim bono, the real skinny. Now, brother Nick. You tell me if it could possibly be true.

Here's an interesting conundrum, an unhumdrum conundrum, if you please..

Who/what/where is Polyclitus?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:35 - ID#433172)
So why do the Russians feel compelled to support the Serbs? They are manifestly bad boys, pretty well documented , having a party keeping thier fellow Yugoslavs under thier thumb. How general is the support for them?

And why not just let the Chetnicks be Chetnicks, it would be lots cheaper?

Not to be critical, just trying to understand.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:35 - ID#284255)
Australian swing chart

The thin blue line represents the OZ Industrials.
The thin brown line represents the OZ Oil sector.

The thick brown line represents the OZ GOLD sector.

The thick black line represents the m/a of the other three.

This swing set works equally well for the OZ share market as does the other swing set I post for the US markets.

The cycle looks to be down for now.

Same for the OZ GOLD sector.

Now if we only had a swing set for the world gold sector???

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:38 - ID#335379)
Louis Faircon has his mouth open as usual and not saying anything good.
I was not going to comment on my very negative perceptions about Faircon but I see he is once again trying to look like a "leader" to his own followers.
He must not realise how obviously hypocritical and power hungry he looks to the rest of us. Anyone who deeply desires power should never be given it.
This man is a self proclaimed racsist for sure. To bad the media even gives him the time of day. Of course because they do we all can see him spit his drivel and recognise what a farce this mans"role" is.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:51 - ID#384350)
Ezra Pound on Usury
From CN
Dr. Redman summarizes Pound's view on the malevolent influence exercised by the money monopoly:

International usurers, in Pound's view, create wars for
their own profit, to get nations into debt, and are
continually trying to stamp out any threat to their
economic monopoly and any move toward economic justice.
They control the newspapers and the press, which in turn
maintain the ignorance of the people about economic
subjects. "The Count of Vergennes had cause to say to John
Adams: 'newspapers rule the world."

The conspiracy against economic knowledge is furthered in
the universities. All the textbooks written for them
during the nineteenth century, "the century of usury...
were written to maintain the domination of usury" according to Pound.

This would explain, for example, why economics is perceived as "boring." Mainstream economics is =purposefully= made boring by the intellectual *apparatchiks* of the money power so as to help conceal what is really going on.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:57 - ID#384350)
Do you Remember when....
corporate Earnings used to be reported as Up or Down X% from previous quarter.

Now we have covert lowering of estimates and intentional understating of forecasts, then the corporations can beat estimates. This lowering of the bar often results in earining surprises that the media picks up on.

Fools can't see the sheep for the wool over their eyes.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 03:59 - ID#258195)
Monday's Gold and Silver Lease rates
For Mon 19 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.49---------------1.29-------------1.42-----------------1.78
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.03 ) -------- ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ------------ ( + 0.01 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----4.00--------------3.30--------------2.50-----------------2.10
Silver Lease Rate---1.22--------------1.92--------------2.44-----------------2.59
( Change ) ------ ( 0.00 ) ------- ( - 0.10 ) ------- ( - 0.10 ) ----------- ( + 0.10 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:04 - ID#386245)
Kassim Bono lost in the aether, which is Kitco between 23:00 and 00:00. Great 'story', mate. I have just bought a book about the ten most famous scams in Oz. Will report back when I have read it. Now, speaking of scams, I wish I had a scanner. Well here goes:
I received this in the mail:
Venerable Olu Faji
Tel/Fax etc.
Falomo, Nigeria


I am Venerable Olu Faji, an accountant in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and I head a seven man tender board in charge of contract awards and payment approvals. I came to know of you in my search for a reliable and reputable person to handle a very confidential transaction which involves the transfer of a huge sum of money to a foreign account.

bullshit etc.

The original value of these contracts were deliberately over-invoiced in the sum of USD Thirty Six Million, Five Hundred and Sixty One Thousand ( $36,561,000.00 ) which has now been approved and is now ready to be transferred being that the companies that actually executed these contracts have been fully paid and the projects fully commissioned.

Consequently, my colleagues and I are willing to transfer the total amount to your account for subsequent disbursement, since we as civil servants are prohibited by the Code of Conduct Bureau ( Civil Service Laws ) from opening and operating foreign accounts in our name.

BS,BS etc. ,we offer you 25% of the total, BS,BS, etc.

Needless to say , the trust reposed on you at this juncture is enormous. BS etc.

Modalities have been worked out at the highest levels of The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria, BS etc. ...

Once more, I want you to understand that having put more than 19 years in the civil service of my country, I am averse to having my image and career dented. This matter should therefore be treated with utmost secrecy and urgency.

...your role is risk-free, BS etc.

Kindly expedite action, BS etc

Yours Sincerely

Venerable Olu Faji

Would you believe that many businesses in Oz have received this letter and that MANY MILLIONS OF $$$$$$$ HAVE BEEN SENT TO NIGERIA!!!!!!Never to be seen again!!

Greedy suckers!!!!!

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:06 - ID#384350)
Corporate Earnings and Y2K
I was reading some Harry Schultz last night. He said that CEO's who make millions on stock options have been too much concerned about reported earnings that they have delayed Y2K expenditures.

Harry thinks that they are going to have to start spending soon and that we should see this start impacting earnings in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 1998.
Maybe Uncle Alan G. and Robbin' Rubin the Looter can implement Accounting Standards that would allow all Y2k expenditures to be capitalised and amortised over 8000 years.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:07 - ID#433172)
Gianni Dioro
Certainly right about one thing, economics was THE dullest suject I took. Balance sheets etc, the teacher had his toungue in cheek and hardly ever looked up. The whole finance world I thought dull-dull-dull, and I followed along like all the sheeple. Now I'm mostly confused and still not much interested, but gold I canm understand. Bottom line, be self-centered enough to put aside what you can't understand, being confused is the worst of all worlds.

Peace process, unless quickly remedied, is thru. It will take a change in Israli leadership to restart, but maybe no Arafat by then? Israli demands are absurd.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:13 - ID#25490)
Do you sincerely want to be rich?
Yes Nick@sellingtheOperahousetotourists, I would believe stralians lost millions to that scam, cos noo sealanders fell for it too. I mean, you really can't stop some people throwing away money they can't afford to lose can you?

I saw that book you're talking about, and heard the author being interviewed onradio over there. But I'd bought so many books on gold as well as a most wonderfull and weighty tome on one of my other hobbies, and I flicked through the aussie scam book briefly. shoulda bought it. I have dozens of books on frauds and scams. My favourites are always the simplest...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:23 - ID#258302)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:24 - ID#284255)
OZ Gold swing

And here is just the Gold swing next to the OZ gold index.

The bottom index is the OZ A/D chart.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:25 - ID#25490)

a gift!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:31 - ID#386245)
The biggest SCAM of all time
Auracious--you know of which I speaketh. The DOW/S&P Scam of the late 20th century. I read in the history books that it exceeded the Tulip-Mania Scam and the Mississippi Bubble. Can you imagine that those people ( I think they were called 'AmerKans' ) borrowed trillions of worthless pieces of paper and bought 'real' assets with it. It turned out that there were lots more paper assets than real. Kind of makes you wonder about our ancestors, doesn't it?? Going back to my cyber-orgasmic machine now. Cheers, Nick@23rd Century Oz.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:32 - ID#261102)
Look at the totally bloated valuations of OAT ( ) and CPB. Maybe these are now attaining "safe haven" status. An opinion anyone about shorting these?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:41 - ID#284255)
US Gov't Bill - HR4455

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:42 - ID#25490)
I hope you got one of those self-lubricating AND self-cleaning cyber-orgasmic machines.

Thing about this greenback ( hunchback? ) dollar bubble, is that it does not affect the average kiwi bloke one bit. I mean it is less important to us than the UK Supermarket chains giving in to local farmers' pressure and now refusing to sell our chilled NZ Lamb. Now, before Xmas the biggest time for lamb. The reason is becuase there is a lamb mountain. ( Lamb Mountain? I gotta read that again ) so price of sheeps is way down, that post the other day about the Scots farmers cramming their cars full of sheeps on the ferries to avoid paying freight is true, and it's because the arse has fallen out of the sheep meat market. The cost of freight is more than lamb is worth.

Now, how is that important for gold? Simple. We are witnessing a perios of falling primary commodity prices. Falling commodity prices implies a deflationary *environment.

*Please delete the en before reading this word

Steve in TO
(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:50 - ID#287337)
Nick - I think Nigeri@ must be the scam . . .
capital of the world. People here in Toronto have been getting those same letter from "Nigeri@n civil servants" for mor than 10 years. And people keep sending money to them!

Just goes to show how the sheep will disburse their money without a thought or care . . . almost like the fools who piled their money into index mutual funds last summer . . . 'cause they read in the 'papers about how everyone had made a ton of money in index funds in 1995-'96.

But back to Nigeria- there is a huge industry here in the Toronto area stealing Sport Utility Vehicles ( Jeep Cherokees, etc. ) they are loaded into containers with false papers and put on ships bound for Nigeria. What happens to them in Nigeria is unknown, since not many people there have enough money to buy even a stolen Jeep. They probably sell them multiple times to dupes in neigbouring countries : ) I can see the letter now:

"Dear sir,

I am a civil servant in the Department of Customs, and we have seized a number of vehicles for non-payment of duty . . . "

I have a friend from Nigeria who has left the place for good. He described to me the mistake a foreign guy made when he was trying to bring his car into the country. He *refused* to pay the customary bribe to the port officials, and his car sat for over a month outside a warehouse being slowly dismantled.

Heh, heh . . . reminds me of when I was a kid. We went on holiday in Europe so that my dad could get a new car in Amsterdam cheap. We drove it from Amsterdam to Casablanca & loaded it on a ship that did a milk run from port to port to all the French West African countries, finally arriving at Lome in Togo. My dad was a straight arrow who refused to pay dash, even in Africa, where you could waste serious time for not cooperating. My best friend's dad would fork out a US$10 bill to the customs guy at the airport & they would breeze right through. We were always getting searched . . .

Anyhow, the car was unloaded at Lome and the customs guy wanted his dash. My dad spent all afternoon arguing with him. Fortunately, the US ambassador to Togo ( I think he serviced a couple of other local countris too! ) and his family had been travelling on the ship with us & we had become friends. He cut the Gordian knot by bribing the guy while my dad was out. Gave him US$24, as I recall. We were grateful & happily piled into our car to get out of the coutry and home as soon as possible.

couldn't resist reminiscing . . .

(Tue Oct 20 1998 04:50 - ID#284255)

Total Assets------------------------------2575.3
Total Liabilities and Equities------2575.3

Current Liabilities-----------------------1023.2
Short Term Debt------------------------96.3
Long Term Debt------------------------867.7
Other Liabilities--------------------------568.3
StockHolder's Equity-----------------116.1

And the company has being going downhill for the last few years.

I guess this is what this mania is all about.

How many other companies are like this?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:10 - ID#386245)
Steve in TO
G'day Steve. Enjoyed your story. I, too, spent many years in 'developing' nations. My father was a soldier of fortune ( pilot ) . I got into some rather hairy situations as a teenager running amok with the locals. I was once stopped by two 'cops' on motorcycles in Laos. "You are driving up a one-way road," they said. "Give us your passport" ( with hand going to 45 calibre sidearm ) . "What do you mean, 'one-way', says I. There are no signs!!" "Passport!!!, says they." I went back to my car and folded a piece of funny money ( kip?? ) into a piece of paper and handed it to the meanest looking dude. "Your passport is in order," he said, as they drove off!! Now, did I ever tell you how I got my visa renewed in the Phillipines one time???.........

Steve in TO
(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:16 - ID#287337)
Nick - please tell us how to get your visa renewed in . . .
the Philippines! I'm always on the lookout for new third-world country survival techniques.

On the subject of scams- at least your Australian ones sound ridiculous, and even like they're sort of fun. Nigerian scams are so tawdry. They just don't have that touch of class . . .

- Steve

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:16 - ID#24135)
Harmony results ..
to Harmony supporters ..
Earnings VERY good .. gold production rises to 9191
kg in sep quarter versus 5655 in June quarter for a
63 % increase .. not bad hey ??
Earnings per share ( at ) to 1.14 rand/share versus 0.53
in June quarter. They say they may start semi annual
divs in December .. Rd1.5 has been mentioned ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:17 - ID#333126)
wonder if these guys read kitco?

gold and golf in the same sentence? hehe...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:19 - ID#25196)
Nick-gold stocks in Australia
I should of taken your lead last week when you sold gold stocks to land a profit.Whats your current view on stocks like great central,lihir etc and when do you believe we will crack through the $300 barrier.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:21 - ID#333126)
either the world just got weirder or April 1 is early this year

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:36 - ID#257312)
Here's a Good Stock I Dug Up

Hillenbrand Industries, symbol HB. Here is
their history--

Steve in TO
(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:37 - ID#287337)
Aurator - there's no question that deflation is underway . . .
the joes & janes who live their lives oblivious to what's happening in the economy just don't see it because falling raw commodity prices haven't affected consumer goods yet.

They'll wake up to it next year.

One fallout of the exchange rate gyrations that will affect Americans a lot is the effect of the cheap yen on the car industry. Because of the low yen and high US dollar, you can get a Honda Civic here in Toronto for about $1000 less than a Chevvy Cavalier! Now I ask you . . . If you could get a well-made, advanced-design car for less money than the crummiest car made by GM- what would you buy? By next year Americans will start to see profit reversals that will make their heads spin IMHO.

- Steve

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:38 - ID#257312)
Hillenbrand Corrected URL

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:39 - ID#266105)

Nomura Securities... -1bil in US...another -350m in Russia...
money can't take it with you...its waiting.

I wonder what a few other off-balance sheets look like.....

(Tue Oct 20 1998 05:51 - ID#333126)
@stever in TO
and they wonder why the yen is so strong lately...

I always find it weird how the country with the biggest trade surplus has a currency that is expected to continually fall while the US, the country with a trade deficit that seems to grow like some ungodly beast, has a currency that everyone expects to continue being strong forevermore.

( and let's not bring in figures about national debt... )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:19 - ID#271125)
I read SJ Kaplans volume figures for yesterday and with only 24,000 lots traded the market is trading very thin on big ( ger ) down days. This looks very manipulated. I was an equities trader and recognize this, however the fact is there is not wnough carried energy with all the financial turmoil. I said in my 11:37 of yesterday that gold was heading 294.50 /295. I hate guessing but this is not very solid here and could, as many have said, require another break/south before getting enough steam for a run at 300 yet again. It feels better to direct thought to written format for a change

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:39 - ID#252391)
to John Disney & yen and S&P watchers
How are they treating good old HGMCY over there in SO. AFRICA - rewarding it with another 1/4 point decline??

3 rand per year dividend would be about 1% per year - not exactly grandmother type stuff, but a start. Sounds like there expansion may be on pause for a while which I see as a positive.

Now if the price of gold would just rally. I gfigure at current multiples each 10 dollars in higher gold price is good for an additional dollar of valuation for each ADR. How does that go with your estimates.??

Notice the yen has fallen 111 points on Globex and the S&P has shot up 750 points. My bet is that we are going to go right on up to about 8900 on the DOW with everybody saying we shouldn't and there will be a correction - all the way up.

The markets are baffalling beyond comprehension or fundlemental analysis.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:43 - ID#26793)
Australian gold mining companies form a lobby.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:47 - ID#26793)
Freeport News

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:52 - ID#43349)
I agree. On days when the volume is very thin ( and most easily manipulated ) the prices go down. If they were not being managed one would expect them to be more random.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 06:57 - ID#26793)
Russia likely to pay all bills with printed money; inflation likely to be 300%

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:00 - ID#288466)

Wouldn't 3 Rand dividend be more like 10% return? I don't know the current SA price, but it should be something like 25-30 Rand, I imagine.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:03 - ID#26793)
Deflation hits Brazil. Consumers hold back awaiting lower prices.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:05 - ID#288466)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:06 - ID#239256)
Great Depression

Hi all,and thank you all for my real world education. Today seems far removed from the early thirties, but Iwould like to learn about what life was like during the great depression .
Can anyone recommend some good reading material about those times.
I would love to know first hand , how peoples lifes were affected.
There must be masses of Artie Neiderhoffers out there.
Ps. I miss Another's updates. Right or wrong, he is one interesting dude. Where the hell is he.
Thanks all.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:08 - ID#288466)
Nice candlestick chart site

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:24 - ID#252391)
To Silberbaron and Disney
Gosh looks like I have this all confused. Yes, three rand would be a 10% dividend and the stocks sells for about 30 rand currently. I'll have to look back at what John said was the projected semi annual dividend.

The Managing Director in an interview yuesterday said they were looking for 3-4 times cover. If the company looks to earn in the neighborhood of one rand a quarter that would equal four rand a year which when divided by four would equal one rand of dividend at the conservative four to one cover of earnings to dividend. One rand would be equal to 3%. Now I thought John said 1.5 rand semi annually which would be 3 rand a year or 10% - so we are quite a ways apart.

John - help!!!

Yen in a major decline down 200 points, NASDAQ Globex up 32, S&P up 800 - looks like quite a scramble into the previously beaten down. This will help the advance decline and the new highs new lows pushing many systems bullish on this rally.

Gold down 50 cents to unchanged.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:32 - ID#37463)
Isn't it amazing what sending 18 billion dollars to the IMF does for the world economy. We have cured the worlds ills with the stroke of a pen. Congress must be wise indeed. Only the paper stock traders are wiser I guess. The world markets continue up unabated with few exceptions. Here I sit with my metals shining like golden orbs and silver bangles and my wilted gold shares wondering if my day will come. Makes a man want to talk nasty.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:37 - ID#252391)
John Disney said
Date: Tue Oct 20 1998 05:16
John Disney ( Harmony results .. ) ID#24135:
to Harmony supporters ..
Earnings VERY good .. gold production rises to 9191
kg in sep quarter versus 5655 in June quarter for a
63 % increase .. not bad hey ??
Earnings per share ( at ) to 1.14 rand/share versus 0.53
in June quarter. They say they may start semi annual
divs in December .. Rd1.5 has been mentioned ..

3 Rand per year = 10% dividend

I can live with that though it seems quite at odds with what the Maanging Director indicated if I interpreted it correctly..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:41 - ID#35571)
Research is wonderful
They have discovered it's more exciting when someone else moves your rod.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:44 - ID#45173)
Brazil goes on the IMF implosion plan: "The austerity measures, which should make Brazil eligible for loans from the International Monetary Fund, are expected to include drastic cuts in government spending and raise taxes."

Worked so well for Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia. Since Brazil is already in a deflation, with falling prices and rising unemployment, how long until they have to devalue their currency, already overvalued by 25%, according to most economists?

Economists are always fighting the last war. Brazil will always live in terror of hyperinflation. But now they get to experience the other side of the coin.

Link para el senor Donald:

My money says they devalue by the end of the year. The IMF only has $30B for them but they have $90B in short-term debt maturing before the end of this year. The Brazillian economic miracle was put on a credit card and the bill has just come due.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:49 - ID#35571)
Globex up, bonds slightly down, Yen down and Dollar up, PM's down, oil mixed.

To many, the calm at the eye feels much like the calm before the storm. They come out and continue as before. There is, however, a difference:

Date: Mon Oct 19 1998 21:10
Gollum ( Hot money hurricanes and whipsaws )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:49 - ID#252391)
To Tortfeasro
While its quiet on this board and everybody is asleep I'll admit to have switched just a little cash into a stock market equity fund, yesterday. I say this in fear of being banished from Kitco and thought a complete fool - so please keep this among ourselves, please. These markets are not sane - I'm missing opportunites fiquring they are. I furthermore think the odds of both golds and regular securities both going down at the same time to be remote though I'm sure I'll get some arquement on that score. Golds looks on the edge of a a move down to XAU 62-63 as gold breaks to 290. Dec Gold under 296 in my book looks very ugly and the other metals look worse. Deflation is in the air and its thick, this morning.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:56 - ID#45173)
Some are optimistic that the financial system will dissolve into choas and that their gold investments will rise in value as a result, while others are more pessimistic, believing instead that the system is resilient and able to adapt to massive systemic imbalances, the adaptations causing their gold investments to fall in value.

I'm optimistic that in the long run humans will improve the system that has been steadily evolving for centuries to greater efficiency, and very rapidly over the past twenty years of the so-called Information Age, and that on the other side of a trasition between the current system and the new is a more robust system that will allow for high capital transaction rates, transparent capital flows, and stability, too. However, per your posts last night, it's not clear at the moment whether the current system will survive the transition. Realistically.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 07:58 - ID#288466)
marketprojections updated

user: hixson

password: thmetal

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:02 - ID#28994)
Tortfeasor 7.32
The 18 billion dollars given to the IMF translates into 18,000 million dollar bills. I recall at one time when you referred to a person as a millionaire, it meant he was extremely well to do. Today, to class a person as a millionaire could be embarrassing to many. You hear the phrase used more often today as "he is worth millions". With the face value on many currencies, there are probably more billionaires in Russia than the United States.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:14 - ID#271125)
Jims/I spied your note to Tortfeasor...however ?##?
I too have ingested some calls to the family fund. Though I have taken a more risky ( perhaps ) stance, 50% cash ( cdn, budget surplus and historically in the can ) 35% N.A. gold producers, 5% gold ( what can only be described as punts ) and as of yesterday,10% Japanese exposure decision ( I have'nt chosen the vehicle of investment there yet ) .

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:16 - ID#35571)
What is, is.

Optimists have millions of years of data to point to and demonstrate that man has continued to survive and flourish despite many catastrophes along the way. Besides, if you are on a plane going down it's better to be optimistic and plan for what you are going to have for dinner after your flight is over, since if you don't make it, it doesn't matter anyway.

On the other hand, there were more dinosaurs and more different kinds of dinosaurs at the end of the dinosaurian age than there had ever been before. Dinosaurian optimists had a lot of data too.

During times of great conflict the survivors have most often been those who were neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic. The optimists tend to rush too quickly into the field of fire, and the pessimists tend to give up too easily.

Zen ( what is, is. ) has proven itself through several thousand years of oriental feudal conflict. Sometimes one must run forward with the optimists, sometimes flee with the pessimists, and sometimes just sit.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:21 - ID#271125) volume..These hedge fund require massive liquidity
in order to provide the moves they need within the 'old' framework of capital provided by the banks. Is there any data on the actual dollar turnover of gold per day as compared to US treasuries for example?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:21 - ID#35571)
The air is fresh and clean at the eye, the sun shines forth
07:50 PARIS CAC UP 1.3% OR 44.50 AT 3439.85.
07:50 FRANKFURT'S DAX UP 2.2% OR 99.91 AT 4558.31.
07:49 LONDON FT-100 CLIMBING 2.9% OR 145.1 TO 5222.6.
07:49 HONG KONG'S HANG SENG RISES 0.5% OR 43.70 TO CLOSE AT 9642.75.
07:49 TOKYO'S NIKKEI CLIMBS 1.8% OR 240.85 TO CLOSE AT 13808.05.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:24 - ID#25174)
Systems improved by humans -
there is no such thing. All complex dynamical systems exhibit their own synergy and human manipulation only peturbs the transit between attractors that the system navigates. Gold for example is presently orbiting a stationary point around the $297 point and will continue to do so until the other parameters form a new attractor or it switches to periodic. Golds price is so stable in the face of systemic chaos for the above reason and the rest of the global economy is moving between periodic ( type 2 ) attractors giving the wild swings displayed of late and a new attractor probably of type 4 ( information processing ) . On the way it will visit chaotic areas where las vegas rules apply.
Unfortunately economists are not scientists who understand these forces and subscribe to a dogma of folklore handed down over the last four hundred years by people who tried to form "rules of thumb" to explain these forces, since complexity theory had not been discovered yet. Today we give these self same people with their rules of thumb power to control a twentieth century system with seventeenth century tools. This is the equivalent of letting astrologers control the moon landing.
If these eCONomists would just leave their hands off the wheel we will be through this more quickly and in natures most efficient method.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:26 - ID#238422)
Hi, brother Junior, nice to hear from you again.
Hope you are O.K. Please post more often...
In regard to Farakhan - thanks for your help,
may be somebody will react...we need to hear
from his supporters at this site...we need to
know those bastards....I want to kick some "s a s"..
I mean know, being a naturally gentle
person, I can not say it straight forward...

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:27 - ID#341297)
Gollum @ Strange birds
That last post was great!!...Boy..WE are some strange birds...Life is indeed interesting!!

Just a thought..Chicken man..

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:37 - ID#33184)
New Record Trade Deficit
New Record Trade Deficit, rises 15.3%. U.S.-Japan August Trade Deficit +0.5%, U.S.-China August Trade Deficit +9.0% to $5.91 billion, highest of any country including Japan. U.S. August Exports fall 0.3%. U.S. August imports increase 2.2%.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:38 - ID#39857)
au* the calm that surrounds the chaos

string to hold old tools together, mirrors to create what you want, powder
for the impressive exit..........ooooooops oh my shaking my head and
looking for a circle........
au*stralian, thankyou from my heart, to yours, for your clarity

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:41 - ID#35571)
Well, we knew it was going to be bad...
08:33 US IMPORTS RISE 2.2% TO $91.6 BILLION.
08:33 US EXPORTS FALL 0.3% TO $74.8 BILLION.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:46 - ID#33184)
Bigger import increase element than export decrease element is not necessarily a sign of an economic slow down.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:49 - ID#35571)
What was that number for 911 again?

In many areas, it's not available
Associated Press DataStream - October 20, 1998 07:42
AP Graphic HOW 911 WORKS

EDS: Also moved for AMs and moving on general news wires.


Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - If you're visiting Montezuma, Ga., and need help, don't bother calling 911. It doesn't work there and it won't work in dozens of other places across the country, either.

"Many people think 911 is everywhere," said Woody Glover, executive director of the 911 network for East Texas. "But there are a lot of pockets of the country that aren't covered."

By one estimate, roughly 700 mostly small and rural counties have no form of the service. By another estimate, 9 percent of the U.S. population lacks it.

The major reasons: The estimated $1 million to $4 million in start-up costs - primarily communications and computer equipment - and the cost to run the system, including pay for round-the-clock dispatchers. These costs are paid by the people who live in communities with 911, and voters usually decide whether their state or county should get the service.

Longtime residents of communities without 911 service generally know the number to call in an emergency.

"The problem arises when people move into a community or visit it," said John Ellison, executive director of 911 service for Shelby County, Ala. In those cases, precious time can be lost, jeopardizing lives, public safety officials say.

When people call 911 and it's not available, they typically get a fast busy signal or a message that the service is not available. To get emergency help, they must call the local, seven-digit number for fire, police or rescue, likely requiring a separate call to find out the phone number.

About 260,000 calls a day are made to 911.

Of the two forms of 911 service in the United States, "enhanced" service is the most common as well as the most helpful to emergency personnel: A dispatcher automatically gets the caller's telephone number and address, crucial information that speeds up emergency response time.

The only exception is when people use cellular phones. But federal regulators are requiring cellular companies to install new technology by 2001 that will give 911 dispatchers location information.

The other form of 911 service is called "basic," providing callers with an easy-to-remember number for emergencies but not giving dispatchers any information on the caller.

About 85 percent to 90 percent of the population has some type of 911, covering 65 percent to 70 percent of the country geographically, said Bill Stanton, executive director of the National Emergency Number Association, one of the few groups that tracks systems.

NEMA estimates 700 counties lack 911 service, but won't provide a list of them.

Jim Beutelspacher, who oversees Minnesota's 911 systems and compiles nationwide population statistics on 911 availability, estimates that 9 percent of the U.S. population lacks 911 service.

Lake County, Tenn., population 9,000, is one place without 911.

"We're such a small county we feel like it would be quite a bit of an added expense to have 911," said county executive Macie Roberson. "So it was something we could not afford."

Residents haven't pushed for it and know the numbers to call in emergencies, Roberson said. Not having 911 "has never been a problem - never a problem."

Montezuma, Ga., with 7,000 residents, also doesn't have 911 service but is considering an enhanced 911 system.

"People seem fairly satisfied with the system now, even though they have to dial seven digits rather than just three," said Police Chief Lewis Cazenave.

The 911 service, following a model developed in Europe after World War II, came to America after a U.S. presidential commission recommended in 1967 that a single number be created for reporting emergencies. One year later, AT&T announced it would set aside 911 for this purpose. The first systems began in February 1968 in Haleyville, Ala., and Nome, Alaska.


Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:50 - ID#341297)
Will @ Here's a great book!!
I enjoyed the heck out of this book--"1929 The Year of the Great Crash" by Wm. K Klingman ISBN 0-06-016081-0

It kind of gives a feeling of what was going on in the minds of people of that day...from Joe 6 Pak to the Money boys on Wall Street...talks about the market manipulation, investment trusts ( mutual funds of the 20's ? ) and the great hope of a come back... you might enjoy..I did!

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:53 - ID#35571)
@Cage Rattler
Very true. But it's being played that way and so often prices are moved by what the market thinks rather than what is. Especially in the short term.

Associated Press DataStream - October 20, 1998 08:44
WASH: into recession.

So far this year, the deficit in goods and services is running at an annual rate of $165 billion, 50 percent above last year's $109.9 billion imbalance.

That marked deterioration represented the loss of key overseas export markets because of a currency crisis that has leveled a number of Asian economies and Russia's. The market turmoil is now threatening to strike closer to home in Latin America, a region that buys nearly one-third of U.S. exports.

In addition to the loss of export markets, domestic manufacturers of such items as cars and computers are facing increased competition from foreign goods made suddenly cheaper for American consumers by the steep decline in Asian currencies.

America's deficit with Pacific Rim countries rose by 5.6 percent in August to $15.7 billion and at $103.5 billion is 41 percent higher than in the first eight months of last year.

The $5.9 billion deficit with China was the highest monthly imbalance with any country other than Japan. Imports from China hit a record high with two-thirds of the $260 million increase coming from a rise in shipments of toys and games. U.S. exports to China fell to their lowest point in two years, reflecting big declines in sales of aircraft and farm fertilizers.

America's deficit with Japan was up 0.5 percent in August to $5.2 billion and is running 16 percent higher than the 1997 pace. The Clinton administration has been trying to step up pressure on Japan to deal effectively with severe banking problems and its worst recession in a half century in order to provide a stronger market for its troubled Asian neighbors as well as American exporters.

The 0.3 percent drop in U.S. exports of goods and services marked the fifth straight month that exports have declined. The $74.84 billion August total was the lowest since January 1997.

Exports of American farm products fell 3.9 percent to $3.57 billion, the lowest level since July 1994. American farmers are suffering this year from depressed export demand and lower commodity prices, both reflecting in large part the global economic crisis.

Imports jumped 2.2 percent to $91.6 billion, led by the increase in shipments of automotive products with the ending of the strikes at General Motors.

The deficits with both Canada and Mexico, partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement, were up in August, reflecting the end of the GM strikes, which had depressed imports of automotive products in July.

The deficit with Mexico was up 53.9 percent to a record $1.76 billion, with half the surge in imports coming in the automotive area. The deficit with Canada rose 4.5 percent to $1.82 billion.

The August performance would have been even worse except for a continued decline in world oil prices. Total oil imports dipped 0.4 percent to $4.04 billion. That reflected an increase in volume to 9.33 million barrels per day on average but a drop in price to $10.63 per barrel, compared to $10.71 in July. The August price was the lowest since August 1986.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:53 - ID#45173)
The politicians can't keep their hands off the wheel in a democracy. A set of policies that benefits one part of their constituency hurts another. Imbalances build up over time. At some point the politicians has to change policies in favor of the new majority, such as from policies that support globalization, free markets, and low-inflation, to policies that promote domestic employment and inflation, and by the way, benefit gold. And so it goes.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 08:57 - ID#298380)
Bearx fund going long on gold stocks
What does Tice know that we don't???

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:04 - ID#24135)
3 rands is 3 rands..
.. and that would be a 10 %div at
current price .. Dont forget the
projected 4 rand earnings is after
tax and capex .. They dont need any
cover on that ..They will build up
retained earnings no doubt but 10%
is reasonable.. now with the resource
base they have.. a 5 % div would be
quite in line with the market .. and
accomodate a price realignment at
constant earnings ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:19 - ID#39857)
japan to apologise to china.....your a little late....I'm already torn
besides weve got business to do ...and your doing such a nifty job with that sword..................
China's president to make unprecedented visit to Japan next month

China's President, Jiang Zemin, will make an unprecedented official visit to Japan on November 25th.

Japan's Foreign Minister, Masahiko Komura, says the purpose of the visit is to deepen friendly relations on the 20th anniversary of the signing of the 1978 Sino-Japanese peace and friendship treaty.

Mr Komura says Tokyo aims to build a relationship that can contribute to the international community.

President Jiang will be the first Chinese head of state to visit Japan.

Observers says there are rising expectations Tokyo will offer a landmark apology for its wartime past.

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:22 - ID#24135)
getting cocky ..
Look at Platinum ..
That double bottom was the dreaded
half @ss continuation pattern ..
310 in thirty days .. maybe less ..
The mood of the market is FINE ..
golds off 10 .. were off more than
20 .. my broker wants me to sell
more stock .. thats generally a sign
to get fully invested .. trying bottom
feed jc gold ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:22 - ID#35571)
Double bottoms
As the highest intensity financial winds hit, the first bottom is created. Then comes the eye. Prices rise. People feel the bottom is in. Dipsters come out.

Then the second wall hits...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:26 - ID#371229)

Los Vegas has become a thriving tourist megapolis supposedly with corporate

ownerships of gambling casino mini-cities. The organized crime elemnt has "supposedly"

been moved out. But has it? Or did organized crime go quietly corporate. Have they learned

along the way with the accumulation of 100s of billion of dollars worldwide to utilize

sophisticated business tools of investment?

Gold accumulation has long been written as the ultimate aim of many a nefarious

plot ( ie. James Bond ) . The cornering of the gold market would indeed be a costly man-

uever to say the least.

I see a marriage of the notion between the rescources and desires of organized to

do just that. Consider deflation as the removal or abscence of available capitol.

Where does money go. It has to be hoarded or held out of circulation does it not.

How does organized crime launder 100s of millions of dollars. Isn't the purchase of

Gold Bullion the perfect means to accomplish this. Wouldn't they have long ago

discovered this. Add to this the means and deviousness to buy politicians ( which

is merely the grander scale version of buying police forces ) , and it is inconceivable

to believe they could position themselves as the boullion dealers to whom Central

Banks are selling their gold to?

Carrying this logic further could they buy banking interest that lend and support

money to hedge fund think tanks that speculate on emerging world country currencies

bloating their investment rescources and then withrawing all capitol to suck their currencies

dry, forcing the sell of more gold to then support those currrencies? There is some

similarity to the secrecy of their manuevers is there not?

So if they wanted to corner the world's gold boullion rescources what else would

they do? Could they have a U.S. president in their pocket? Could they be anticipating the

the imposition of martial law worldwide as a consequence of the millenium bug and

would that yeild further oppurtunity to claim more power, gold, and the creation of

of one world government, one bank, one currency--GOLD? Who would be the major


These are admittedly wild speculations from one far less knowlegeable in world

economic intricacies than the many whom I've read posting here on kitco.

I do ask for feedback from those more knowledgeable in these concerns than

myselves. I am not comfortable with darkness of these speculations at all and I would

having these "absurdities" blown out of the water as they are a burden to consider.

In a post I placed last night I said it was in John Davidson's publication the

Strategic Investor where I first read of Russia being corrupted with mafia influence

and of Clinton spending time there as a student ( prior to his involvemnt in politics ) .

If you believe these speculations are possible. That we are moving toward

a worldwide imposition of martial law, how much of Clinton's actions become more

intelligible. His biggest concern is to avoid impeachment as he desparately must be

at the helm on 1/01/2000, but how difficult will it be to delay, obsfucate wag the dog

not resign and still manage to be the sitting president by Y2K.

I recently read on the Y2K weatherman website that the federal reserve is

printing &/or planning to attempt to print $200 Billion as a reserve currency, to provide

cash demand liquidity in the event of bank failure. If they can do this, can some of this

be diverted to the PPT to keep stocks up, dollar up, gold down. Elsewhere on the net

I've read post of the creation of concentration/detention camps, planss by the Canadian

government to keep their federal police on call for the "kind of" martial law imposition

possibility @ Y2K. State governors are planning ahead to reserve the national gaurd

in their states.

Just because some things are too fantastic, horrible or inconceivalble

does not make them not so. Who would have ever consider the possibilities of the


In any event I post this for your consideration.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:28 - ID#270253)
Prudent Bear is a Prudent Mule
David Tice runs a fund that wil fail by it's very design. The Prudent Bear can only survive on doom and gloom. What will he do when things look promising, shut the fund??? Trading opportunities exist at all times for those who do their homework. When he likes gold, I get nervous.

If you saw David on CNBC yesterday, he looked like a fool. I wouldn't give the guy five cents of my money. I will bet that his fund can't make money for anyone. To run a fund, you must be nimble and opened minded, not stubborn. He looked like it was a personal fight, not a trade in stocks. I make lots of mistakes, but I cut my losses and move on. This guy would go down with the ship trying to make a point.

John Bollinger once said that you need fuzzy logic to trade stocks. He is right on.

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:40 - ID#341297)
Gollum @ sun is shining
If I have this right,I think when a hurricane hits you and the eye is over you there is blue skys ( for a moment ) does that song go..Blue Sky....ta de ta de

Just a thought..Chicken man..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:42 - ID#35571)
Does this count as an official denial?

The Hatt
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:44 - ID#381261)
Mike your observations see somewhat flawed!
How could anyone throw stones at David while the average Mutual fund Manager has roughly 6 years experience! The sheep have been lead to slaughter and your opinions will change once you see the carnage caused by this bear trap! 40 times earnings is that what you call nimble investing, GIVE ME A BREAK!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:50 - ID#339274)
FWIW Supports intraday 293 291 288,shortterm cycle bottom
at 7:00am tomorrow.XAU poised to hit 67

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:53 - ID#270253)
The Hatt
This 40 times earnings thing is propaganda. If you take the front cover of your weekly Value Line, the median P/E for stocks with earnings is 14.5 times, versus 19.3 six months ago. I would expect that any experience money manager ( I am one ) would realize that a flexible approach is needed at all times. I have not been a bull or bear all this year, and I have held lots of PM stocks. We are up 30% YTD.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 09:58 - ID#375108)
Thinly-traded SWC
Did anyone else just notice that huge block trade? Five times the average daily volume. Hmmm... Any comments???

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:00 - ID#229207)
If no one believes it, then why does he need to tell us that no one believes it? The sky does not fall. No one has to tell us this. But if a distant meteor appears in the government telescope, then if may be necessary to reassure the public that the sky does not fall.

Still, the market presses on...


(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:03 - ID#354133)
Interview with a munEX-Pert

At a VERY LARGE and RESPECTED heavy metals selling company a few months ago.
"Hello, this is SK, what can I sell you?"
"Hi, SK, I've got $15,000 and I'd like to buy some gold."
"Indeedee-O, good buddy. How'd you get all that money and why do you wanna buy gold?"
"Well, it is my wife's savings. And I was reading Kitco and somebody said gold was a good store of value for a long term hold"
"OK. Well, that's just not true."
"Oh, really. Why?"
"Right. I'm glad you asked that question. See, if you take the CPI for the last 40 years and multiply it by the price of a loaf of bread, in 1972 money, then take the inverse hypotenuse of the angle of the moon on the 14th of July at 10:24 PM and square it, the numbers show everything. Just let me fax all this math stuff to you."
"Um, that's OK, I'll just take your word for it. Wow, sounds like you really know your stuff."
"Right-O. I have a Master's degree in Physics, Economics 101, Metals trading, and a chain belt in kung fu hara kari. I was also an expert marksman in the Army. I killed ministers who had blank guns in church. Trust me, I know everything. I even write a newsletter on the web, but sometimes you have to ignore the spelling, the lawyers make me do it."
"Wow! I'm impressed! So, if not gold, what could I put my money in to make more money?"
"Okee, dokie. I like platinum here."
"What is platinum?"
" That is an excellent question. You are a smart person to ask such detailed and intelligent questions. It is the most used precious metal in the world. It is used in cars and stuff. Cars will never go away, don't you agree? So, it is MUCH BETTER than gold as a store of value. Nowhere to go but UP! Why don't you let me fax you all these cool company generated charts. They're real neat - they go squiggling all over the place, like a mountain, way UP in the sky."
"Whoa, that sounds really cool! But will I make money?"
"So, how can I buy this platinum stuff?"
"Oh, just let me take your order right now. Did I tell you that platinum is at $475 an ounce? But, before we do that, let tell you about an even BETTER way to make lots and lots more money. Have you ever heard of leveraging?"
"Yes. Isn't that like a one of the basic mechanical tools that lets you use just a little force to lift big, heavy objects?"
"Yes, indeedy, you are a smart person! I never get calls from people as smart as you! Anyhow, you can leverage lots and lots of metal using just a little bit of your money."
"Is it a safe investment?"
"RIGHT-Y-O! You are the greatest person I've ever talked to! How did you get so smart? I'll bet you got a PhD in rocket science, don't you??"
"No kidding? What do you do?"
"I'm a mechanic and I make $6 an hour."
"OK - I love mechanics! Some of my best friends are mechanics. I've got lots and lots of customers who are mechanics."
"Really? Like who?"
"Oh no, I couldn't violate my client's CONfidentiality. Just trust me on this. Remember how I told you I know everything? And you agreed."
"Oh. So where were we? Oh yes, how can I buy this stuff?"
"Just say these words when I tell you to: state "your name" and "yes". It won't bother you for us to record your voice, will it?"
"Well. Are you sure this is good investment?"
"Absolutely-doodley. Wow, you really are a cautious person, aren't you? Well I can't blame you. You can't be too safe, you know I have this one client that just asks me so many questions, he really makes me work hard!"

Six months later..

"Hello, this is SK, what can I sell you?"
"Um, it's me again. I saw on Kitco where platinum was $347 an ounce, is that good? Can I get my platinum now?
"Oh, it's gone. Didn't you get my margin call in the mail?"
"What's a margin call?"
"Well, it's a . Oh, never mind. You don't have any platinum any more."
"OK, then, can I just have the money back?"
"Oh no. The money is all gone."
"What do you mean?"
"Well, YOU told me to leverage your money into platinum and I did. And now it's all gone"
"All of it! It's all gone?!?" You guaranteed it!"
( silence )
"So, well, I got more money, so what can I do now?"
"Let me tell you about silver"

The characters in this story are fictitious and any resemblance to real people is strictly coincidental.

And remember to remove the "M-U-N" before reading.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:03 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index peaked on Oct 9 at +683, and is now in very slow decline. Usually, bear market rallies see peaks at +1000 or higher. This is a negative, but may just be a pause in a new bullish phase.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues have dried up. They have been at the benchmark of 5 issues or less on 7 of the last 10 days. The remaining three days have seen 6 new lows per day. This is healthy. ( Note: NYSE general market new lows are drying up too )

The 220 day MA for gold is at 294.14 and rising for the first time in over three years. We are on the good side of this one, but it is close.

The 200 day MA for the Toronto Gold Index is at 6306 and rising. We are close to testing this one too.

The indicators are weaker than last week, but generally positive.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:09 - ID#35571)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:09 - ID#284255)
Earnings hold clues into future
By Scott Burns / The Dallas Morning News

Dr. Ed Yardeni has his neck out.

Way out.

The chief economist for Deutsche Bank in New York has displayed data on his Web site that stocks have been as much as 20 percent undervalued in recent weeks - but still overpriced.

How can this be? How can stocks be undervalued and overpriced at the same time?

Grim outlook

Simple. Dr. Yardeni is making estimates of future earnings that are far lower than the consensus of Wall Street analysts. If he is correct in his estimates for 1999 or 2000, the future looks grim for common stock investors. If the Street consensus is right, the pain and worry that abounds today will be forgotten in a wealthier tomorrow.

The starting point here is a fundamental question: How do you value common stocks?

Dr. Yardeni has used a model favored by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. This model states that stock prices are closely related to the expected operating earnings of the Standard & Poor's 500 index companies as well as the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. Using this model, Dr. Yardeni notes that stocks were overvalued by more than 20 percent in the summers of 1997 and 1998. They were also overvalued by 34 percent in September 1987.

Expressed as a formula, the "fair" price for stocks would be equal to their expected earnings next year divided by the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. The basic idea here is that stocks are always in competition with bond yields. If interest rates rise - making bonds more attractive to investors - stock prices will decline so that the earnings yield ( earnings divided by price ) on stocks is competitive with the yield on bonds. On the other hand, if interest rates fall, stock prices can rise.

Since a small change in interest rates has a relatively large impact on valuation, stocks have yo-yoed between under- and overvalued in the past three weeks.

In July, with the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond at 5.49 percent and the consensus earnings forecast for the companies in the S&P 500 at about $49 a share, the model used by Dr. Yardeni suggested a fair value of 892 for the S&P 500 index. That was substantially below the index's July peak of 1186.75.

So three months ago, the market was overvalued.

Since then, interest rates have been in a free fall. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.4 percent in early October, increasing the fair value of the S&P 500 index to 1114. That's above where the index was trading late last week.

No time to relax

This may mean that the worst of the decline is over and we can relax, right?

Unfortunately, Dr. Yardeni says, there's another shoe still to drop.

The problem, he says, is that "bottom up" estimates of corporate earnings - the ones Wall Street analysts make on individual companies - tend to be optimistic. While they were relatively accurate in the recovery from the early '90s recession, they were far higher than actual earnings in 1991 and 1992.

Dr. Yardeni believes consensus estimates are optimistic once again.

While the consensus estimate for profits for the S&P 500 is $45.84 a share for 1998, he is estimating $44. Similarly, while the consensus estimate for 1999 is $53.91, a 17.6 percent increase, Dr. Yardeni is estimating $43.25, a small decline. Worse, while the consensus for 2000 is $60.08, Dr. Yardeni is estimating a major decline to $33 a share.

Looking forward, the difference is more than a gap. It's a chasm. With the consensus view, the worst is over and things are going to be better. With the Yardeni view, we've only just entered a major bear market.

In a recent telephone interview, I asked what supported his estimate.

"The Year 2000 problem with computers will be extremely disruptive. It will exacerbate existing economic problems," he said. "Even if you get your computers fixed, others won't - so we'll still have a recession. In addition, the worst isn't over for our current problems. The global crunch is still going on.

"Everyone's tolerance for risk decreased at the same time. We're heading into a series of financial crises and business credit crunches."

We can estimate the potential depth of this bear market by doing the math for the consensus estimate and Dr. Yardeni's estimate:

If you assume no change in interest rates and consensus earnings, the S&P 500 index would have a fair value of 1365 by the end of 1999, an increase from current levels that would surpass the index's July high quite nicely.

Using Dr. Yardeni's earnings estimate, the fair price of the S&P 500 would be 750, a decline of nearly 25 percent from current levels.

How much further would interest rates need to fall to support the current level of stock prices if earnings drop as much as Dr. Yardeni projects?

Try a yield of 3.4 percent, a full percentage point below current rates.

Who's right?

It's the future - no one knows.

What can you do?

Watch the number of earnings surprises. If most are negative - big time - that's a powerful sign that Ed Yardeni is right and the consensus is wrong.

Want to learn more? Check out, Dr. Yardeni's economics Web site. You can hear him explain the problem on RealAudio, visit his online "chart" room, and download his and Federal Reserve papers on stock valuation.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:11 - ID#208393)
Another one
"Nomura hit by U.S. loss of $1 billion Fiasco in real estate spurs overhaul"

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:20 - ID#284255)
Forgot to add this to that last article
Y2kWatch News
Two weeks ago when the markets were declining rapidly, I heard some of
the top Wall Street economists on CNBC discuss the likelihood of a
6000 to 7000 Dow Jones average in the very near future. These experts
were convinced we were moving into or already in a bear market.

Then, we received news that the Japanese government was injecting $500
billion of taxpayer dollars into the ailing Japanese banking system,
and late last Thursday the Fed lowered the short-term lending rates
they charge to banks. These events contributed to a significant rally
in the markets. The economists started backtracking on their
predictions. Some economists are now being more vocal in their
opinions that we will not experience a recession next year.

I remain skeptical. The US Savings and Loan crisis took 5 to 7 years
to fix in a rapidly improving economic market. It was smaller in
scope and magnitude than the Japanese problem. The Fed is clearly
worried about instability in the global economy and financial system.
The current deterioration of the global economic situation could
easily lead to a liquidity crisis that will have direct impact on
American and international businesses.

It is time to be very cautious with our investments. If you're a
subscriber to the Y2kWatch News, you have a Y2k perspective many
people don't understand. Yes, you might be able to make some money in
the short term, but if you are risk averse, you might want to sit this
one out. Personally, even if I miss a last minute rally, I'd rather
have peace of mind.

Below is the link to a very interesting article written by business
columnist Scott Burns of the Dallas Morning News.

Earnings hold clues into future

// Y2k Weatherman Comments //

Japan is essentially bankrupt, and the US can't ( or won't ) refloat the
Japanese banks with US Dollars. Japan will probably resort to
currency controls in order to recapitalize its banks, but this will
exacerbate the US trade deficit with Japan. If the US takes
protectionist measures to lessen the trade deficit damage, the tension
between the US and Japan will only increase. The dominoes are already

Fed actions take at least 9 months to show up in the economy, so don't
fall for the false euphoria from the interest rate free fall. It is a
last ditch effort to prop up the global financial house of cards, a
veritable Ponzi scheme of debt. Lenders are still scared out of their
wits by what it is unfolding around the globe. The big players
understand hedge fund leverage and derivatives exposure and aren't as
likely to be drawn into the Fed's game. Unfortunately, this could
prompt additional rate cuts.

As the credit crunch continues and corporate earnings continue to
deteriorate, the US stock market will again start to encounter plenty
of resistance. The rate cut euphoria will wear off. Also "bear" in
mind that an additional series of rate cuts will underscore the
seriousness of the deflation problem and contribute to dollar
weakness. This will have a very negative impact on global investor
psychology. A looser monetary policy might also portend an eventual
swing of the pendulum toward inflation. If Y2k produces a serious
drain on the world economy this could usher in the dreaded
"stagflation" reminiscent of the early 70s, inflation plus recession.

The bottom line? Get prepared for Y2k now. Financial problems could
hit early. In fact, they are already here! We just haven't felt them

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:21 - ID#258427)
@all...doncha think gold is holding pretty well
in the face of the strong dollar...yen up 3..etc...??

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:22 - ID#432130)
Prudent Bear...
Its a matter of getting into that fund at the right time. I got in when it was at its all time low. I got in in August after I dumped all my equities because I saw all this crap coming. I "got out" of the market in time before the crash. I then made an investment in Prudent Bear BECAUSE IT IS A "GLOOM & DOOM" FUND!!! WE ARE IN GLOOM & DOOM TERRITORY RIGHT NOW ( if you havent noticed ) !!!. If you follow the charts you will find that Prudent Bear follows the market in EXACTLY the opposite direction of the Dow. I have made ALOT!!! of money in Prudent Bear the past couple of months by simply buying Prudent Bear when the Dow goes up, ( knowing it will go down again ) .

I would agree that it is not a wise LONG TERM investment, but if you can time this market's wild volitile swings ( which I find not too difficult to do ) , then you can make some good short term returns with the Prudent Bear fund.

I would also agree that the fund is set up to fail in the long term.

: )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:28 - ID#284255)
If you use MS Internet explorer v#4

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:35 - ID#21275)
Would some one please post the url for quick quotes.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:39 - ID#284255)
Dell, Compaq clean their clocks
Computer giants Dell and Compaq are making sure they protect their PC customers from any Y2K threat to their computers by separately taking actions to address potential glitches in the real-time-clock related to the century date-change.
"There is a perception that there are non-standard applications that will go to the RTC on the Year 2000 and will crash the computer,"
"To handle this we have gone on to provide a device-driver that" automatically corrects the RTC before it returns an incorrect year.

Leonid meteor showers

As for important upcoming events please note that the Leonid meteor
showers occur in mid-November. They occur approx. every 33 years and you can
see them in the region of the constellation Leo early before dawn about Nov.
17-18. This year there is to be an innumerable number of them as opposed to
past occurrences! The greatest concern from space experts according to "Sky
and Telescope" magazine is that they will knock out at least some of our 500
or so communications satellites. This event will occur about the same time as
the Presidential impeachment hearings begin. Can you see the possibility that
the president might have the ( ideal ) situation to call a national emergency or
Marshall Law?

....and from:

The loss of up to 15% of our functioning satellites coming just 44 days
before the worst of the year 2000 computer crashes will add fuel to the
social unrest of those trying times.

The Denver Post reported on 11 October 1998 that after the Galaxy 4
satellite died and shut down tens of millions of pagers, Elliot Pulham,
senior vice president at the U.S. Space Foundation said "Your average
person does not think about them much, but if you turned off space for a
day, you would have a nationwide riot on your hands.''

Leonid Meteor Showers home page:

Get the lawn chairs out ( and a parka ) for the Nov. 14-20 1998 show. Call
home ( and make bank withdrawls? ) on the 13th, because the predicted
meteor shower could scramble the collective satellite brain of planet
earth spoiling communications for the months it will take to replace and
repair space hardware. What's worse, the storm will hit two years in a
row, handing down a one-two punch. The year 2000 computer crash ( "Y2K
problem" ) pales in comparison.

The particles from the Leonid Meteor shower could poke holes in solar
panels, damage lenses, ruin mirrors, and short out electronics with the
burst of electromagnetic energy that is generated when they slam into an
orbiting communications device. The energy produced by impacts could
ruin space computers, digital cameras and radios.

"How," said one consultant, "are you going to explain to major
corporations ( and how are they going to explain to their customers ) that
their satellite isn't there anymore?"

We got a tiny taste this spring ( '98 ) when a single private satellite
went haywire and millions of pager customers lost service for days.

The average meteorite can be thinner than a human hair or no larger than
a grain of sand, but they each pack the punch of a bullet from a gun.

Exactly When?
The Shower begins November 14 and ends November 20. The 1998 maximum
occurs early evening on Nov. 17; the 1999 maximum occurs about midnight
on the 17th.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:40 - ID#371229)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:41 - ID#213135)
Silver is getting near a buy zone, see chart.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:51 - ID#365216)
gunny: your story rang true
I learned my lesson the hard way by listening to Mun "broke"rs:
no matter what they say, don't leverage. Save your cash and
buy it outright. BTW, I am still a customer and have my fully-owned
coins stored with them still. During the eighties, I literally
lost tens of thousands being persuaded to leverage buys while the
market continued to go down. If you really want to leverage and
know what you are doing, buy real Comex futures. When dealing with
any firm, know what you want upfront, listen to their suggestions,
and make your own, informed decision. There is a big difference
between an investor and a speculator. Margin buyers are speculators
and will get burned eventually.

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:52 - ID#212323)
Bank on this...
One of the very finest gold movies ever...1966..."The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly". A theatre not far from me is re-running the movie all this week. You can safely bet that I will be enjoying it on the big screen. The line in Vegas on that is ONE.

Two and a half hours of wit and drama...all for gold! No way would the three characters be similarly driven for a cashbox of Confederate paper.

Ahhheeee-ahhheee-ahhhh ... Whaah...whaah...whaaaah...

got Clint?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 10:58 - ID#316256)
Louis Farrakan
Well someones got to do this. I like Louis. He is a snappy dresser. He talks politely, at least when I've seen him. Most times he makes sense except for when he gets excited about the zionist plot. Also he's out there doing it! He's standing up to the government and getting in their face. He doesn't acquiesce to political correctness and he tells his followers to live descent clean lives. Heck I bet he even owns some gold. If he dropped his rhetoric about the zionist plots he would enhance his credibility tremendously. Alright take your best shot: )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:02 - ID#284255)
ECHELON - they're watching you - period
Surveillance technology can be defined as devices or systems which can monitor, track and assess the movements of individuals, their property and other assets. Much of this technology is used to track the activities of dissidents, human rights activists, journalists, student leaders, minorities, trade union leaders and political opponents.

The Interim Study said that within Europe, all email, telephone and fax communications are routinely intercepted by the United States National Security Agency, transferring all target information from the European mainland via the strategic hub of London then by Satellite to Fort Meade in Maryland via the crucial hub at Menwith Hill in the North York Moors of the UK.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:05 - ID#270253)
Misc. stuff
I don't want to beat up David Tice any further. Prudent Bear is a sector fund and he should act accordingly. Some have made good geans by treating it as such.

I own some Gold Fields Limited ( GDFDY ) and can only get end-of-day quotes from after 8 p.m. Eastern time. Does anyone know where I can get intraday quotes on NASDAQ bulletin board shares? Thanks.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:14 - ID#334219)
Mike Stewart
Try this for GDFDY


Charles Keeling
(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:16 - ID#344225)
@ Mike Stewart RE: Live quotes
Want a ticker & real time quotes? Down load myTrack. It's free, and you can keep it down in the tray while doing all your other stuff. Any time
you want to check your stocks, just bring it back up from the tray and
take a look at the whole market.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:20 - ID#333126)
@chicken man - T-bond puts
did you buy yours?

dang - i don't have online put option quotes. hmm...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:32 - ID#21275)
@Charles Keeling live quotes
from where do I down load Track. Thanks

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:33 - ID#423380)
BREAKING NEWS--Gold down 1.20 on Spock's gold sales announcement.
Fear entire Enterprise crew may soon follow.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:34 - ID#269409)
@ Stocks, Gold
Stocks...soaring on strength and volume. Loral up another 10% after 7% gain yesterday. Some "crash".....



(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:35 - ID#93241)
Farrakhan is Farrakhan. Probably has a good side and a dark side just like the rest of us. I saw him Sunday with Tim Russert on Meet The Press and it occurred me that the media is very limited by political correctedness. So instead of criticizing African-American leadership in America, they simply put Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the tube, get them excited, and let them talk. Their ideas speak for themselves.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:35 - ID#340262)
Raging Bull
Bull running wild in the pasture running about wildly in utter panic - not a bear in sight - napping? - Hibernating for the winter? - a true buying panic in progress - hurry! - hurry! - don't miss the boat - Rumor that AG is finally buying. Talk about the madness of crowds - this gets better by the day.

Incidently got my report from Harmony today one of the most striking things that I found in the report was in the information about the make up of the shareholders went like this.

1 -100 0.9%
101 - 1000 1.78%
1001 - 100,000 4.12%
100.001 - 1,000,000 10.62%
1,000,001 - and more 83.19%

Four major shareholder groups are holding 42,459,539 shares or 78.74%

Back to trying to dodge the bull - cjk -

Charles Keeling
(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:40 - ID#344225)
@ The scene RE: myTrack ticker
I have been using, and enjoying, myTrack for the
last 3-4 months. You can track all of your stocks
and indexes like XOI, XAU, INDUST, etc as well.

It does take a small amount of your on line time,
but it does seem to be insignifigant. I keep it
loaded all the time, and when I need any quote I just
bring it up from the tray where it is already updated
and waiting. It also has a ticker that shows just the
stocks that YOU are interested in.


It is free, and so far it beats any other mechanism
for getting quotes on a real time basis.

The down load takes about 10 minutes. The basics are
free. Some charts cost extra, but there are free
ones if you dont need real time data.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:42 - ID#21275)
Big AL Greenspan should know that
this bull has mad cow disease

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:44 - ID#365216)
If the spread between gold and platinum should get to $10 or
less ( it has before ) , go long plat and short gold for a safe
play. I don't believe plat has ever been less than gold, has it?

Charles Keeling
(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:49 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: mytrac URL
Should have been:


(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:53 - ID#375108)
Holders of SWC...
Volume today highest of the year by far, almost equal to that of a two-week period. Anybody with news?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:53 - ID#229207)
The stampede leaving economic logic by the wayside...
FOCUS-Yen rollercoaster leaves fundamentals behind
By Chizu Nomiyama

LONDON, Oct 20 ( Reuters ) - The yen slid sharply across the board on Tuesday as it came under fire from a barrage of sell orders against the mark and other currencies, with the stampede leaving economic logic by the wayside.

But while the yen's slide was sharp and sudden, it had barely had time to sink in before the currency clawed back a substantial portion of the day's loss -- three percent against the dollar and 2.5 percent against the mark -- by Europe's midday.

The whippiness of Tuesday's European morning session showed just how twitchy the market had become after dollar/yen crashed nearly 20 percent in the space of four days earlier this month.

Traders said that at this stage, the market was paying little heed to the economic fundamentals of the United States or any other country. Also, they said trade volume was thin and this exaggerated the moves.

``It seems it started with some mark/yen buying orders triggering stops in dollar/yen... But the market's very, very skittish,'' said one trader at a French bank in London.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 11:54 - ID#269409)
@ General
Gold has indeed surpassed Platiunum in the past..1980 for example...for a short time. Your strategy wouldn't be half bad though.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:00 - ID#229207)
Am I naive to say that Platinum is an industrial metal, like silver, which falls in price like any commodity in anticipation of a recession, while gold may be pulled down by the same forces but pulled up at the same time when currencies are devalued, because gold has had a historical role as a store of value relative to currencies? If so, there may be a time when Platinum, far more rare than gold but a little goes a long way in industrial applications, has a lower price in dollars than gold because Platinum is not percieved as a store of wealth?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:03 - ID#228134)
Heyyyy...Gold pulls a reverse, now up .20

Not bad in the light of a rising US$

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:07 - ID#293387)
Posting at Kitco

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:09 - ID#290456)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:10 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 174.337 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 295.850 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 172.981 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 295.400 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8458 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 20 Oct 1998 ) : 4.8550 US Dollars

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:10 - ID#410194)
Gold and Silver
This morning's comments about Gold and Silver at "Hightower Report":

"GOLD: There is simply a sense of deflation and with earnings weighing in on Wall Street and in the press its clear that gold is really far down the line waiting for investors. The fact that dealers backed away from the market again at $300 isn't surprising and analysts in Asia suggest that demand from Japan and Asia is expected to be stagnant for several more months. The poor technical trade seen in December gold hints that 296 is the next downside objective. The pace of the energy market declines speaks of deflation or even recession. Another analyst suggested that for gold to take out $300 additional more severe financial conditions are needed, we think demand will simply take longer to repair under another financial debacle. More light long liquidation."

"SILVER: There was some Japanese buying overnight which simply defrays the selling interest lightly. The $5.00 level remains solid resistance with support coming in down around 476-479."

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:11 - ID#270253)
CC Charles Keeling
Thanks for the new quote services. I will try them.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:11 - ID#410194)

"Panic, hysteria and bloods in the streets"....

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:14 - ID#350179)
XAU spike
Go ahead - take a look.
( I'll sit this one out though )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:16 - ID#284255)
Upcrash is sustainable?

You should hear what Oldman thinks is coming after this meteoric rise?
Personally I'd prefer the markets to fall slowly - rationally.

This is the final blow-up that will destroy many markets and players.

This is absolutely ludicrous. ^o-o^

10% gains on a daily basis is sutainable?

Service Providers Turn To Y2K
And representatives from long distance, local, satellite and wireless providers came to last week's meeting to coordinate testing and contingency planning.

They have less than 440 days to do what amounts to 60,000 testing-years on systems and equipment,

"Nothing will work if the networks don't work."

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:16 - ID#375108)
Silverbaron re: SWC
Many thanks! So that's it! Hope all is well down there in the Carolinas!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:19 - ID#219363)
Loaded back up on my equity PUT options over the past two days, *snicker*. Just put these seriously low bids out there and in the bear panic, people sold them to me, too beautiful. Have you ever seen a chart like this ? Hmm.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:19 - ID#254321)
Market Rally, but no gold rally
All: For some reason, the consensus is that ( for the moment ) all is right in the world of equity markets. I have decided to bet a little on this with Fidelity Select Defense -- and it is doing well. Can't say the same for my current gold equity investments, though I locked in a 25% profit before the current downturn. Have lost about 1/4 of the profit in the last two weeks.

Question for Sharefin and Gollum -- or others who care to respond:

Any idea how long the current market rally will last until we get Ping III? So far, Pings I and II have been several months after a broad peak.

Sharefin -- I have a new model that clearly demarcates Pings I and II -- -- will correspond with you when I know more. I see no evidence that the 1.618 rule applies relating ping I and II to the future ping -- yet anyway.

I have several ideas in mind for what might cause Ping III:

1 ) Brazil situation much worse than expected -- funds from IMF too little too late.

2 ) Leonid meteor shower Nov 17. Satellites knocked out cause turbulence in the markets. You might want to lock in your investments before the event -- because there might be a blackout for a few days. Remember Galaxy 4? Still don't know what happened.

3 ) Japan market rally fizzles, and the grand $600 billion reflation experiment to attract funds to Japanese markets fails.

What I find puzzling is that the Japanese market rally has not been in parallel with a gold rally. Gold seems to have decoupled from the Yen.

But -- in the other hand -- gold stocks have not yet fallen back to their short/intermediate term lows. So -- the current gold equity rally is still intact. Its just that gold bullion cannot seem to break out of its two year downtrend pattern, and confirm a rally.

Comments, anyone?

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:25 - ID#24135)
General ..
Platinum has traded below at least
twice since 1980 .. I made a lot of
money in 1983 buying Rustenberg at
about 3 rands or something crazy like
that when Pt was WELL below gold..
May happen again ..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:26 - ID#284255)
Y2k Bank petition

Worth a read and to fill it out?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:34 - ID#190411)
Do you know symbols for NASDAQ 100 puts series?

Emerald Heights
(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:34 - ID#228356)
THANK YOU gwzy(Gregg)Predent Bear.....
I just closed my position in Prudent bear fund. I, Like you , also sold all equities in August, and bought into PB fund. My mistake was buying into the gloom and doom crap, should have played it just like at the roulette or crap table's or gold for that matter. Only made 8% on my investment, but that is better then loosing money ! Would have make 20% if I had your counsel in past. I also liquidated 80% of my physical PM holding at their recent peak, wish I played the Bear the same way. Thanks for your post of 10/20/98 it was the wake up call I needed.

Regards: Emerald Heights

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:35 - ID#187109)
Nick@C and stuff
I received that same letter. Showed it to me dad....we both had a good laugh. I imagine they get MANY takers................the true sheepleos.

Dizz and all - I am waiting in anticipation of Plat getting to 310. Let us keep a close eye for that final washout. My feeling is that we will have an Island formation of sort ( again ) making a nice V bottom.......speaking of good looking bottoms............... ( weren't we? ) And on the en............a top is in? Down to 160 says you? Sounds good to me. Nothing has changed over there......just a bunch of jaw flapping. I wish these rates would last a little longer though. 'Tis good for US 'goods'.........oh well. At least I'll make a buck ( or two ) .

And on gold.........oh well, Spock may be on to something.

And on Farfel - I normally would not comment on the F* but I here goes. You have stated that the Gold bull is here MANY times now. I guess if you say it enough times it will be true........kinda reminds me of a fable or regarding that little boy who kept screaming of a wolf and the one about that chicken, not the one crossing the road, but the one who thought he was being hit with falling sky......... ( was that a fable? ) ......I dunno. Oh yeah, and that saying I always see here about a broken clock and it being right on ocassion. Keep posting your stuff my man, some people really enjoy it......personally I liked you better when you were posting all that nasty lymeric stuff about your wife. Now I just get noxious.................................. ( ugh ) . Now I'm gonna get some rebuttal post from PH in LA. PHire................



btw.........regardless of what many think of Realistics posts he has never been nasty and his posts have been nothing short of a nice reminder for our short memories. I look at it as sort of a cavaet emptor...........uh huh. ( no offense still rock my world ) .....................I would like Realistic to continue to 'remind' us what has been said in these hallowed halls of helps bring clarity and focus.......... ( to me anyway ) . Thank Realistic.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:40 - ID#93127)
In a dark corner, chewing on probabilities

Today, when the financial word uses the word "solvent", which meaning is appropriate?

solvent ( slvent, sl- ) adjective
1. Capable of meeting financial obligations.
2. Chemistry. Capable of dissolving another substance

"Settlement Risk in Foreign Exchange Transactions"

"Clearing Arrangements for Exchange-Traded Derivatives"

"Systemic Safety"

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:41 - ID#288466)

You betcha pal! This is the best time of year for the Southeast....beoootiful weather, crisp nites, leaves just turning at the lower elevations. Now if we can just get gold and silver movin......... ( up )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:43 - ID#219363)
Symbol is "ndx", up 12.5 percent today *snicker*

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:44 - ID#333126)
various news
some hedge fund dumps 1 billion of 30 year T-bonds

global slowdown worries in the UK

Japan's problems just keeps on trucking

another report on Russian printing ( money, that is )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:45 - ID#287114)
This has to be one of the best Cons I have seen to collect names and addresses.
Some will be dumb enough to actually fill it in and send it on.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:46 - ID#288466)

Here's some mo' options.....

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:49 - ID#288466)
Sorry - I thought you asked for S&P100 options...Duh!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:49 - ID#284255)
What I am fearing is the next downswing.

It seems that the swing is oscillating at an ever increasing cycle.
The swings are getting wilder and of a shorter nature.

These are not the gyrations of a healthy rational market.

I would hazard a guess that the swing will top out in the next week.
Then the test will be as to how investors will feel and react when we enter the next selling phase.

Going on this expanding volatility I would expect a wilder move than this current one, in the opposite direction.

Looking at many Asian & European market indices, I would expect them to reach the zeniths of this current retracement around the same time.

It seems as though the dippsters are ebulent with this current rally.
All too soon they will start to feel that it's overcooked.
Then what?

The quicker we pass through this rally in time and distance, the more nervous I'll become.

Crash time soon?

Not withstanding the PPT powers to pull up a nosedive.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:50 - ID#333126)
interesting reading -- will there always be another buyer of that paper?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:53 - ID#219363)
Just go to Silverbaron's site and enter "ndx" in the left blank.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:53 - ID#269128)
"..a recession and probably a really bad one."
Cut from the Independent.

Outlook - Yield gap carries
ominous message

It's a long while ago, and not many people remember it, but
there was a time when shares paid more on your capital than
gilts. It started in the Great Depression of the 1930s, when
companies were slashing their dividends and going bust all
over the shop. Since the corporate sector was so unreliable, it
was considered reasonable that shares should yield more than

Then in the 1950s, George Ross Goobey, head of the Imperial
Tobacco pension fund, began to argue that since the economy
was growing, and the corporate sector with it, dividends and
share prices would also grow with it. Shares were therefore
intrinsically worth a lot more than bonds, he argued. The "cult
of equity" was born and in 1958, shares began on average to
yield less than gilts for the first time since the crash of 1929.
What subsequently became known as the "reverse yield gap"
has ruled ever since.

Now we seem to be swinging back the other way again. The
old pre-1958 relationship between gilts and shares has not quite
re established itself yet, but we are beginning to get close. In
the last year alone, the yield gap has shrunk from 3.4 per cent
to 1.8 per cent, or very nearly halved. Taking into account
share buybacks, then the gap has declined to virtually nil once

Traditionally, bonds and equities have moved in tandem. Not
any longer. Equities go down when bonds are going up, and
visa versa. This is a shift in the investment landscape of truly
seismic proportions. What it tells you is that there is going to
be a recession, that companies are going to go bust, earnings
are going to fall, and dividends will be slashed. It also tells us
that this is going to be a bad recession, possibly a really bad

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:53 - ID#229207)
Gollum: if any banks are in trouble, the market doesn't have a clue
Wall St stocks vault higher at midday, banks surge

Charles Keeling
(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:54 - ID#344225)
@ Mike Stewart RE: MyTrack Ticker
MyTrack comes up like a spread sheet on yellow
columnar paper.

It has room for 19 different stocks &/or indexes.
I have mine loaded with: XAU, HUI, SPX, OEX, BKX,

Then I have all of my GOLD stocks, and I couple that
I am planning to buy.

At the bottom, there is a quote line. You can key in
any stock or index that you want a quote on, and it
comes back in a second or two. The original spread sheet
gives you a lot of info. But the spreadsheet can be
enlarged to the far right in the blank lines by "right
clicking the blank column. It then gives you a range
of choices for that column: % of change, EPS, annual hi.
annual lo, news, div amnt, etc. etc.

There is a ticker at that runs across the top that gives
you buys/sells of the stocks that YOU have listed. Also,
at the top is a white space that has NEWS, and STOCKS
that are HIGH for the Day & Low for the day etc.

If you right click on your stock symbol, you can do charts,
get news, and lots of other good stuff on that particular
stock, or index. The new version that you get has other
features, such as STOCK WATCH for a particular group of

The charts are pretty good, but I like BIGCHARTS also.

If you are not using BIGCHARTS, you should give it a look.
I will post a URL in a minute.

Good luck.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:54 - ID#277302)
The Enslavment of the Beast.
In childhood memories, I recall the enslavment and tyranny of the wild bear by the "valiant" gypsy. The unfortunate creatures were captured, chained, tortured and beaten into submission and trained to "dance" on their hind legs by being led onto hot tin sheets, "enticed" by savage beatings with heavy wooden sticks and viscious tags on metal chain and ring through the poor beast's nose.

The town's people would gather around when the gypsies came to perform. The gypsy would beat his drum and another the tambourine while the bear was enticed onto his rear legs and pretended to "do the twist". The trainer's occasional tag on the cruel nose ring would bring tears into the proud beast's eyes, while the odd smack with the wooden stick, sometimes brought out the rage and defiance in the enslaved creatures eyes.

As I grew up, I heard the stories of the gypsy bear that tore his master to bits, when he least expected it. I still recall that warm feeling of "justice being served", fondly to this day.

I guess the moral ( s ) of this story is ( are ) ;

You can enslave and oppress a wild Bear, ( or Tiger or Panther for that matter ) but he will tear you apart, when given the first opportunity to do so.


You can't grab a wild Bear/Tiger/Panther by the balls and live to boast about it.

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:55 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ Didn't even get a chance to sit down
I didn't even get a chance to sit down before the train left the station!
Bought late yesterday...In @ 128,127, and126 ( lotto tickets ) ...Got about 12 mil....could be a hell of a ride ( fingers crossed ) ...

Trip is only good till let's wait and see

Jusy a thought...Chicken man...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 12:56 - ID#284255)
What I am fearing is the next downswing.

It seems that the swing is oscillating at an ever increasing cycle.
The swings are getting wilder and of a shorter nature.

These are not the gyrations of a healthy rational market.

I would hazard a guess that the swing will top out in the next week.
Then the test will be as to how investors will feel and react when we enter the next selling phase.

Going on this expanding volatility I would expect a wilder move than this current one, in the opposite direction.

Looking at many Asian & European market indices, I would expect them to reach the zeniths of this current retracement around the same time.

It seems as though the dippsters are ebulent with this current rally.
All too soon they will start to feel that it's overcooked.
Then what?

The quicker we pass through this rally in time and distance, the more nervous I'll become.

Crash time soon?

Not withstanding the PPT powers to pull up a nosedive.

Be it that we get a couple of hits on the sattelite systems.
Then the flow on effects will be a good monitor for y2k.

If a couple of power systems have troubles and also banks and telecoms then I would take the futuristic implications of Y2k a lot more seriously.

Of course no hits on the sattelites will not negate my feeling towards Y2k.
I'll just have to wait for the next peroid of susceptability.

But if the sattelites sustain hits but the systems stay intact then I'll have a lot more faith in the robustness of systems to with-handle Y2k.

This coming period with the Lenoids is very important to me because of these features.

Personally I'd like to see about 5 good hits ( total wipeouts ) on the sattelites.
Just to have a good solid pre-Y2k test.

You could then imagine the panic if some of these hits totally trash some land based systems.

The public will really wake up to the millennium fear.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:02 - ID#271236)
E-Wave and some quick comments!!!!
The stock market has completed a .618 retracement of the whole decline.
This IMHO is going to be the begining of the debacle. The stk. mrkts. are about to come to realization
of what is fundamentaly happening out there. It certainly isn't higher
earnings. That was one hell of a suck em back in rally wasn't it? Have to get back to work. Catch you
guys later.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:04 - ID#375108)
All the volume on SWC, combined with weak PGMs, had me queasy...didn't realize that their stock sale was coming up so soon. A brief aside ( and apologies to Bart ) : tho' a Canuck, I spent eight great years in the Carolinas ( Charleston ) . Looking to see the Panthers, like the PMs, moving in the right direction. Thanks again, and off line for now...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:06 - ID#333126)
@chicken man
i got some 127's. could sell out now and take some profits... might do that. don't wanna see them worthless on friday. *sigh*

what do you think? potential for the train to pick up speed tomorrow?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:10 - ID#219363)
Btw, I don't know about others, and I'm not the best trader in the world, but I haven't been buying against the indx's. Right now I'm buying against specific stocks, the over-inflated tulip ones, because there's more down-side potential for them, and I'd buy indx options on the way back if things move my way. With the indx options you have the advantage of high liquidity ( there is a market in this volatility ) but you pay for that too, if the volatility slows down, you get burned. I dunno, and there are people here who do know, maybe they'll speak up. Whatever the case may be, if we're going down after this, I wouldn't worry about a few hundred points on the DOW one way or the other for fear of missing out. In other words, don't miss out on a dollar trying to save a dime.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:11 - ID#269128)
"...waiting for dangerous flows to be unwound..."
rattlesnake market.....what's gonna pop next?

This is really rather entertaining.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:12 - ID#212197)
What's going on with Oil?
In spite of the low US$, crude oild is going down even more.
That must be catastrophical for as lot of countries which depend on oil exports.

Question: why is this a good time to buy stocks of oil companies?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:18 - ID#284255)
From sammy/jacad @ Avid
"Is the glass half empty or half full?"

I always find the extreme reactions to the market rather amazing. Last
Thursday almost every bull was having serious doubts about the markets ability
to maintain it's levels. Even the most bullish had begun to have serious
doubts. Along came Greenspan with his 1/4 point rate cut and in the space of 1
minute the world had changed!. Or has it? What is this newfound market
optimism based on? Has the world changed overnight? Are Asia's problems
suddenly over? Will Russians survive this winter eatin rubble? Did Brazil's
problems evaporate? Will Klington survive his scandalous behavior? Does anyone
really care?
From the way that the market is behaving it would seem to me that nothing
really matters to anyone anymore except trying to maintain the market at high
levels. It has become the yardstick for measuring the success of 7 years of
perpetual boom times and the logic of trying to massage prices higher in order
to draw in more private money to support the saggin bedsprings escapes me.
However being just a pieon ( or is that pigeon ) in the game of "investment" one
must accept that the great manipulators have abundant powers available to do
whatever they wish. This certainly seems to me like the calm before the storm.
I feel that we are in the eye of the hurricane awaiting the destruction that
is to follow. Batton down the hatches!!!!! But what do I know?

Equities: Still awaiting penetration of the 1085-1089 gap zone on SPZ8 ( what's
taken so long? ) SPX confirms 1075 area is about where we should be headed. The
eternal question becomes ....when we reach it what will we do?

Bonds: S/T expect more upside although last weeks gap is now filled still
lookin for mid-high 132's before the next dip

Currencies: USD should be in doo doo for quite some time

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:19 - ID#35571)
All the better to rip their faces off.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:21 - ID#284255)
Investigating Campaign Fundraising Irregularities

"We are investigating a possible massive scheme of funneling millions of dollars in foreign money into the U.S. electoral system. We are investigating allegations of gross misuse of our national security structure including the national security council and the CIA. We are investigating the White House that became a frequent stop for major donors with foreign ties who have now fled the country or taken the fifth amendment."

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:23 - ID#43460)
novice re SWC
One might want to enquire about their forward sales agreements before making any short term decisions. IMHO they've chosen the middle ground in the risk/reward calculations this year.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:24 - ID#187109)
I believe the Venzuelans have stated they INTEND to step up production starting soon and increasing through 1999........or something like that. I sold into this latest rally and am happy for it. Much to the Chagrin of our OKEY pal........... ( sorry studio.rummy ) ...........However it approached a RELIABLE ( near term ) oversold indicator so I have 'peeled' part-o-profit and now sit idly by with cheshire grin......w/w..........and doodling....................and tupping of course.......................................with blue crayola................ohmy...... ( ! ) my other less intoxicating athough as exciting, NOT , J-O-B.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:26 - ID#269128)
Latam debt a good deal....but for who?
Tuesday October 20, 11:53 am Eastern Time

Argentina, Mexico, Panama debt seen as good value

By Hugh Bronstein

NEW YORK, Oct 20 ( Reuters ) - Sovereign bonds of Argentina, Mexico and Panama offer value in these
illiquid times for emerging markets, but even such relatively solid Latin American economies may run into
trouble if Brazil fails to stabilize, U.S. fund managers said.

``Brazil is the linchpin,'' said Martin Schubert, chairman of the European Inter-American Finance Corp., a
Miami-based emerging markets debt trading and fund managing firm.

Strong banks in Argentina, the benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement in Mexico and Panama's dollar economy will provide attractive
returns if the outcome in Brazil is positive, Schubert said.

But until Brazil announces a credible fiscal stabilization program, leading to an International Monetary Fund support package, fundamental strength in
emerging economies will be overshadowed by market-wide risk aversion, he said.

On Monday, Argentine PAR bonds bonds ended down 5/8 to bid 69-7/8, Mexico PAR bonds were were up 1/8 to bid 76 and Panama PAR paper was flat
at 63-1/4.

Capital flows to emerging markets dried up after Russia's debt default in August.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:31 - ID#365253)
ALBERICH-Oil Question?
It is still a little early to start buying oil stocks. It takes several quarters, to a few years, for low crude prices to materially damage the larger producers bottom line. Additionally, oil stocks are too coorelated to the general market and we all know how over priced the market currently is. Just an opinion and you know what that is worth! Go gold.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:35 - ID#34191)
help please for a novice. I just came from where they listed spot gold
at $298.55 up .60, this site shows down .90 so whose is most likely to be correct? Also, they showed 30yr yeild at 5.06 up .08, so is this good for the municipal bond funds and long term US bond funds that I own? I'd kinda like an up day so I can bail out of some of them. Also, does anyone else feel like you have too much money on Black and the wheel has landed on Red three days in a row. Go gold, go BEARX, these red ink days are getting OLD. Thanks for your help.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:38 - ID#21275)
Irrational market
Will Big AL temper this irrational exuberance

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:45 - ID#21275)
Is it the market
or is it big AL that that is insane ?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:48 - ID#254288)
Imagine the trade gap with higher oil prices!

Top it off with the DOW going back up and job cuts because we just can't compete, even with a lower dollar, -translate this as decreased consumer spending- then it looks like a blow off is in progress.
Be sure that Span-Man will be lowering rates again and when the markets shrug it off and the consumer retrenches all hell breaks loose.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:54 - ID#93241)
Alberich 13:12
Too much oil on the market...lots of players ( suppliers ) , of which OPEC ( remember them? ) is just one. See Noesis website for oil industry trends...

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:55 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ I like the key reversal on weekly chart!
Charts look bad for the bulls...key will be what the Yen price of bonds do...they are bearish too.. IMHO
Playing my hand with the LTCM boys...Don't think that big money and their friends are going to lose....Sad..but it is true..that is why they are big money...they can move the markets so they win!!

Just MY thoughts...Chicken man..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:55 - ID#343259)
@Sharefin re Y2k Countdown
I prefer to look at it that there are less than 10,500 hours left

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:56 - ID#33184)
Sterling is apparently up due to LTCM selling off its sterling swaps and bond positions

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:58 - ID#266105)
have you had your leptokurtosis today

Banks role in the present financial turmoil is crucial. After LTCM
was rescued, many investment banks were quick to reveal details
of their exposure to LTCM in particular, and in some cases to
hedge funds in general. This exposure was mostly quite trifling
compared with banks total assets or capital. But these admissions
were beside the point. Many banks have followed similar strategies
to Long-Term Capitalbut, in aggregate, on a bigger scale.
According to some reports, whereas LTCM had an exposure of $80
billion to arbitrage between American Treasuries, banks had $3
trillion tied up in similar bets.

Unfortunately, there are some big flaws in the VAR approach. The
first is in that word likely. The models assume that markets are
neat places where bad things, such as stockmarket crashes, rarely
happen. If you imagine a normal probability bell-curve, extreme
movements are represented by the thin tails on either side.
Unfortunately, it seems that such outcomes happen more
frequently than the models allow. The tails, in other words, may
be fatter, something which statisticians have a suitably off-putting
word for: leptokurtosis.

( ... )

But bear in mind that banks losses to dangerously unregulated hedge funds are in the tens of millions of dollars. Their losses in emerging-market lending, which is regulated, run in the tens of billions.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:59 - ID#343171)
what the IMF really thinks of hard assets:

The IMFs Policy on condoms

In 1995 the IMFs Executive Board reviewed the role of condoms in the IMF and concluded that its policy on condoms should be governed by the following principles:

As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, condoms provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF condoms should avoid weakening its overall financial position.

condoms holdings provide the IMF with operational maneuverability both as regards the use of its resources and through adding credibility to its precautionary balances. In these respects, the benefits of the IMFs condoms holdings are passed on to the membership at large, to both creditors and debtors.

The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of condoms among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.

The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the condoms market.

Profits from any sales of condoms should be retained and only the income deriving from the investment of those profits used for any operations that might be agreed.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 13:59 - ID#252150)
Messy79@Another beautiful day in Victoria with the sun glistening on the St.
Stopped out of my PDG long within 1/2 hr @ a small loss. Finding it very difficult to be a loyal GB & have made a lot more gains lately by being short. I think the wisest thing to do right now is to wait for a decisive break 1 way or the other. At least my NT is still up.

John Disney
(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:00 - ID#24135)
Rangy Fans ..
Rangold Resources moved up to
$2.75 from $2.68 monday .. It had
been as low as 2.25 I believe a few weeks
ago ..I think it is out of the woods..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:01 - ID#343171)
ahh the fun of cut/paste and search/replace

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:02 - ID#343171)
sorry but my favorite:
The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of condoms among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:03 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ profits
Don't be afraid to take enough off the table to cover the cost of your bet...i.e.never lose your principle that way you have enough $ to "bet"
on the next hand..

Just MY thoughts...Chicken man..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:06 - ID#333126)
@chicken man
think i'll go make that call and ... erm ... reduce risk ( i.e. sleep better ) .

re: going with the big boys - well, it's certainly arguable the central banks are bigger and badder and ... it's difficult to figure what they're doing next with those interest rates

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:09 - ID#33184)
Anglogold calls for world gold body
ANGLOGOLD, the biggest gold producer in the world, increased net profits by 27,6% in the third quarter with help from a 7% rise in the price of gold.

In announcing the results Anglogold CEO Bobby Godsell called for the creation of a world gold organisation to promote bullion and thereby boost the price. He also mentioned a "wide range of market development projects" under consideration by Anglogold. Any initiatives will be announced at the beginning of next year, he said.

Higher profits were the result of increased prices for gold which has remained between $295-$300 an ounce for most of the quarter due to global financial instability. Gold production remained steady at 53,2 tons for the quarter, leaving higher prices and job cuts as the major factors in the profit jump.

The company intends training its workforce to increase productivity in order to maintain profits in tough economic times. "As part of the drive to improve productivity, very clear objectives have been set to eliminate all unskilled jobs and to provide the company's 85 000 employees with the training to make them effective members of multi-skilled, self-directed work teams," Godsell said.

After-tax earnings for September amounted to R537,7-million from R421,1-million rand in the second quarter. Earnings before tax rose by 26,1% to R811-million rand from R643-million. Capital expenditure for the quarter amounted to R97,7 million from R9,6-million in the previous quarter. Earnings available for distribution to shareholders rose by 18% to R493-million for the third quarter. -- AFP

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:11 - ID#371229)
@cowgirl, try for 20' delayed spot gold, for other futures
contracts a good 24 hour site is

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:14 - ID#343259)
@sharefin Y2k countdown update
Of course 10,488 hours is for all 24 hours in the day, all 437 days remaining. If you deduct 2 days for weekends, you are down to 7,491 hours, and if you divide by 3 ( representing an 8 hour workday ) you are down to 2,497 work hours left. This without subtracting holidays, sick time or vacation time, or productivity of those hours at work. To be fair, it doensn't count overtime. But where overtime is effective in the short run, it doesn't always equate to gains in the long run. my .015 ( deflation seeming to be upon us ) .

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:16 - ID#284255)
Seems like there's some work to do.

440 days to complete 60,000 testing-years on their equipment
And this is only one sector?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:20 - ID#212197)
@EB,Raconteur,strat: Thank you very much for your comments on the oil
market. Seems there is no chage in sight for the near term future.
Of course, with the exception of a war, and we hope that's not a real danger right now.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:20 - ID#263119)
counterparty risk
From the interesting article posted by 2BR02B:
"Third, some investment banks refused to honour hedge contracts sold to investors, arguing that the Russian government default was a case of force majeure, freeing them from the obligation. This too increased
perceived risks."
Does this mean that brokers, investment banks, clearing houses are legally free from their obligations whenever they can ( or want to ) make a case that "higher forces" are to be blamed for their troubles?
Anyone know more about this?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:20 - ID#20767)
Where the Devil is!,2633,15311-2,00.html

"Alan Greenspan doesn't hurry often -- at least not in front of the cameras. But a few weeks ago the paparazzi caught the cucumber-cool Fed chairman hustling across Constitution Street in Washington, dodging traffic on his way to announce the Fed's first interest-rate cut in three years." ...... RON EDMONDS/AP

If AG had hustled across the nine lanes of Constitution Avenue, alive, to get to the main FED building, where was he coming from? The Vietnam Memorial? The Independence Pool ( a monument to the signers of the Declaration of Independence ) ? Was he on the last leg of a morning jog?

He was actually running between the main Federal Reserve Building and the Federal Reserve Annex ... across C Street NW, which is one street north of Constitution Avenue.

This is a nitpickin' detail, but this guy Edmonds must not be very familiar with the Federal Reserve area in DC.

It makes you wonder how much else has been 'print to fit.'

Bob in DC

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:21 - ID#371229)
@sharefin- I am doing subcontract work at a major bank in the southeast

& have had conversations with numerous people in the data for whom I am working. Mid management types have assured me with great pride they are Y2K compliant. They have been buying new pcs and mainframes. Then I had a conversation with the top man in data and he says they have also been doing some code re-writes. Then he says they are going to have their first big test in June 1999 when they intend to run their day to day on a parallel main frame to see what it all does. This is
Suntrust Bank. What do you think?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:22 - ID#284255)
The more I read the less confident I feel.
Not that I'm remediating.

I'm currently trying to drag some GPS info out of the geeks.
So far no luck.
False thoughts of confidence is all so far.

I've got an inkling this ones going to be a biggy.

As to the day left?
Does it really matter?

Much will be done but much more time is needed.

Someone's pumping the prem.
Obviously they feel it's not time to sell down yet.

Seems they get a little nervous very easily.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:22 - ID#90438)
Juniors - The game is crooked
New to the game? Think twice before you throw money at the juniors......
Bought GRE at 2.67 after following it for a year. Two days later it dropped to 2.30. ( sigh ) I then watched it firm at 2.15 and bought some more trying to average my loss and put a stop-loss at 1.80. Got stopped out this AM at 1.69 as I was trying to withdraw the sell. Stock rebounded from a low of 1.65 almost immediately and is now at 1.95. Bad luck? No! I firmly believe that I've been had. Cost of lesson $7000.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:25 - ID#33184)
Insurance companies have always been protected from "Acts of God"!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:26 - ID#254321)
Market topping - one week perhaps, but Ping III later
sharefin: So far, market 'exhaustion' tops have been several months before the pings -- namely Ping I and Ping II. I would guess that Ping III is farther away than next week -- next month at the latest. Part of my reason for this is that newfound faith in the IMF bailout of Brazil needs time to fade. Also -- this rally in Japan is no 'flash in the pan', and will need time to wear off. Hence Ping III will be later -- but the markets might peak next week. Or later.

Of course -- I could be wrong, and we are still in Ping II -- but probably not.

Anything from Fibonacci analysis/Golden spiral analysis about when the next Ping might hit? Any idea who might be buying Brazilian or Mexican stocks? Sounds foolhardy to me.

I'll post you when I can -- been busy lately, combined with a computer crash. By the way, Windows 95B does not like to be transferred with software from one hard disk to another -- must be formally reinstalled if you upgrade to a bigger hard disk and a new motherboard. Afterwards still ok. Otherwise, it is quite robust, as I found out after crashing several times. Much sturdier than Windows for Workgroups 3.1. I still prefer IBM dos -- but then I can't use all the great new software.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:29 - ID#93127)
Bondsman: Who owes what to whom? Lawyers Full Employment Act
Bilateral Netting: A legally enforceable arrangement between a bank and a counterparty that creates a single legal obligation covering all included individual contracts. This means that a bank's obligation, in the event of the default or insolvency of one of the parties, would be the net sum of all positive and negative fair values of contracts included in the bilateral netting arrangement.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:30 - ID#334219)
Simply bad luck. Stop loss on the very volatile mining issues is a very dangerous game.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:37 - ID#90438)
Are you saying that one shouldn't put a stop loss on the juniors? If so, I now tend to agree with you. It's like showing your hand in poker and gives those on the inside a visible target to shoot for. BTW, luck should go the other way too shouldn't it? Once in a while?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:39 - ID#284255)
Unfortunately I'm not a geek.

But your story is very familiar.
So many deadlines being extended, with so much to do.
Optimism abounds, yet no one really has a handle on the whole.

Ask your friends there, about their code for running the GPS time signal?
See if they have even had a look at it?

I've got a uneasy feeling that this will have to be remediated.

Lots of suspence till June, then little time left.

Chicken man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:43 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ who cares?
Watching the charts will make you more $ than AG!!!

Just a thought...Chicken man...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:47 - ID#343171)
Ping III/kitkat
maybe there won't be another ping, just a series of depth charges that completely destroy the markets. Easy Al loosened not just rates but money supply, there is some huge torpedo out there close to home, major bank or brokerage, either way it should be hitting soon.
The Japanese banking situation can't be fixed with anything short of say $US1 trillion, at least, just delayinig the ultimate implosion for a time.

kitkat: hang in there, believe me I know the horrors of juniors, they can give you are real gut ache.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:48 - ID#266105)
Desolation Row-- where Wall Street meets Main Street

bondsman-- thought the Economist article was a good overview.
As connoisseurs of chaos go, Superfiend has exquisite tastes.

As regards the force majeure, SDRer had a good link. All
I know is that a Mr. McGinnis ( ? ) has a lawsuit going against
one of the biggies, Bear Stearns maybe as a result of the
Russian default. He had a currency contract as I understand
it and they simply stiffed him.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:49 - ID#339274)
FWIW gold showing strength,spreaded puts and bought some more
Sgoly, Harmony and NEM

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:50 - ID#334219)
"Are you saying that one shouldn't put a stop loss on the juniors? "

That is what I think. I never do. Daily swings arnd spreads are simply to big. BTW, GRE is not consider a is more a mid-tier gold stock, like the Viceroy and Glamis..

" BTW, luck should go the other way too shouldn't it? Once in a while?"

Could'nt agree more. A lot of the juniors are still up 50-100% from their summer lows. Those who bought late August have been really lucky.

IMO, I don't know about GRE's hedging strategy...but looking at its balance sheet, I find the stock highly vulnerable to a prolonged drop ( let say below $250 ) in the POG. If they are conveniently hedged for the next two years, than the story is different.

I am very selective in the juniors and mid-tiers I buy now. In brief, I want very low debt, good projects, lots of cash. When the bull is confirmed, GRE and others are the ones I'll be after.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:53 - ID#229207)
SEC not screwing around on Y2K?

SEC, NASD charge 96 firms with "Y2K" report delay
WASHINGTON, Oct 20 ( Reuters ) - Securities regulators said Tuesday they had charged 96 brokerage firms with failing to file reports on action they are taking to prepare for the Year 2000 computer problem.

The Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) and National Association of Securities Dealers ( NASD ) said 56 of the firms agreed to collectively pay roughly $335,000 to settle charges that they failed to supply or incompletely supplied the information required under SEC rules.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 14:54 - ID#31868)
No matter how you look at it...if you add up all the money the numbnuts say exists
it simply does not...there are not that many trillions of dollars and other currencies...on the planet or in is a JOKE...just make sure you ain't the punchlines resting place...yup...uh...huh...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:01 - ID#21275)
After searching the web and hearing CNBC
for the last 5 days. The answer is big AL can solve all the world
problems and lead us to the promised land

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:03 - ID#298259)
Canyon Resourses news....lets hope for the best...
October 20, 1998

To: Canyon Resources Shareholders and/or Interested Investors
Re: Montana Anti-Mining Initiative, I-137

Dear Investors:

In an effort to maintain communication with existing shareholders and
interested investors, Canyon would like to take this opportunity to summarize recent developments in the anti-mining initiative, I-137, scheduled to be voted on by Montana residents on November 3, 1998.

On October 14, 1998, Montana Governor, Marc Racicot, issued a thorough, thoughtful position paper that recommended Montanans vote NO on I-137, saying that "the lost jobs, income, tax revenue and community support that will occur throughout Montana with passage of I-137 will have a substantial and significantly depressing impact upon Montana in human and economic terms."

In separate statements, U.S. Senator Conrad Burns and the sole Congressman from Montana, Rick Hill, have similarly recommended that Montanans vote NO on I-137.

In addition, Don Judge, the Executive Secretary of the Montana State
AFL-CIO has stated that his organization "will be informing the 42,000 AFL-CIO union households in Montana of its opposition to this devastating initiative ( I-137 ) ."

We at Canyon are heartened by the opposition to I-137 by the political and labor leaders in Montana, and we are cautiously optimistic that the citizens of the State will consider seriously these messages on election day.

If you have any questions regarding this Initiative or other developments at Canyon, please feel free to phone either myself or Cheryl Martin at ( 303 ) 278-8464.


Richard H. De Voto

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:04 - ID#343171)
kitkat , I hate to do this but ....
this could be the worse time for this but.... there is a great junior that is coming out with drill results soon, I am invested and have been in and out a couple times, has doubled in last 3 ? months.
Balaclava, bil - Vancouver

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:06 - ID#229207) says the DOW's at 174 and yahoo! says it's at 58
Anyone know what it's really at?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:12 - ID#343171)
EJ dow at 70
I bid 4 kwuatlews on the human

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:14 - ID#31868)
FWIW it is worth...the itty bitty exploration play out there which I think is going to
eat the others for breakfast...TNX in Canada...Tan Range Exploration...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:17 - ID#347457)
@ RAN on doing subcontract work at a major bank in the southeast)
RAN, just a few comments on your posts.

"Mid management types have assured me with great pride they are Y2K compliant. They have been buying new pcs and mainframes."

It's not the hardware, it's mostly application software which is not Y2K ready. You can buy new hardware but when you run the old application software it will still ( most probably ) fail

"Then I had a conversation with the top man in data and he says they have also been doing some code re-writes. Then he says they are going to have their first big test in June 1999 when they intend to run their day to day on a parallel main frame to see what it all does."

This kind of test will not discover any of Y2K problems. It will just show that the modifications they made did not change the software functionality ( regression testing ) . It will not prove that software will act properly when running against post year 2000 dates. To do this you have to set up your system environment to future dates, age your master files, capture your daily transactions, age them, and run tests through the multiple critical dates in post Y2K "time frame"

Looks to me that the bank is too late when they try to run just basic functional tests in July 99. This does not give them enough time to run the real Y2K testing and to correct any discovered errors in time.

Preparation of these tests, data aging, and development of Y2K test scenarios is extremely time consuming! Been there, done that, got that T-shirt

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:21 - ID#31868)
Clintler is going to need a lot of Chinese and UN troops to enforce Martial Law cause
these fine Americans will not fire on Americans at this dirtbags beckon and call...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:22 - ID#21275)
your spot on

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:22 - ID#31868) is the article...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:25 - ID#31868)
powmain, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...and just to make sure the NSA, CIA, and FBI
know exactly who I am...I can be found at 291 West Shore Rd, Huntington, Long Island...with a very NON-UN...United States Flag...proudly flying...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:30 - ID#263119)
to all for replies.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:35 - ID#371229)
Avoiding for the moment any views of unions. I have yelped and hollared
about my unions pension fund being legally and airtight locked away beyond our members grasp due until retirement age. So the best I've been left with is an appointment to interview a trustee on their Y2K compliance. Of course their portfolio is invested in an appropriately divirsified and conservative fashion, but which of course includes many other entities.
My question to you is do you have any recommendations of how I might conduct this interview to determine with any degree of reliablity if one they are Y2K compliant? If two there is anyone they can assure members our money will still be there in 2000.? They presently report fiscal returns in spring for the previous year and I fear we will not even get accurate accounting on what will likely be a very bad year in 99.
They hold .3 Billion$ of which only $60,000 is mine.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:41 - ID#316256)

Somewhat of an interesting EU view of repression.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:44 - ID#253287)
Deflation/Inflation Greenspam can't cure!
The whole world are flooded in CHEAPER STUFFS and every currency needs to devalue.

Asian devalue first, so they sold cheaper stuffs into USA. Only recently, Dollar devalued, but in vain for Greenspam, because he pegged Dollar with Gold. So, other currencies will devalue soon.
Dollar down, Gold down, Grains down, Crude Crash... South America wade deeper... Financial crisis will increase. All currencies will down. What's up? ALL BECAUSE GREENSPAM MANIPULATE Gold with Dollar!

On these cheaper stuffs side, JP is right. Deflation! ALL DOWN!
But, on the expensive side, Inflation is rampant! The medical fee, lawyer fee, student tuition, Dow Stocks...are inflating. The evil system take advantages on sick people, legal-ridden, poor students and deceived people. Their expenses are inflating.

Pray to God, so we don't get sick, need not depend on medical system, while enjoy the cheaper stuffs!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:45 - ID#183258)
We're watching your house...actually we're watching your neighbour's house cause thats where all the action least at night in the bedroom.

Signed...the NSA

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:45 - ID#288186)
Don't look now but the DOW bounced right off it's 200-day moving average
and now it's about flat. Nasdaq down. S&P down. Folks, we could very well
be starting our wave 3 down. Of course, it could hover around this
area for some time....maybe even attack the 200-day MA once again,
but I guess time will tell. Fox-man

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:45 - ID#384350)
What is the symbol, and where can I find info and chart?

Thanks in Advance

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:47 - ID#212323)
Damn, Tol#1, your 15:25...
'cause I sent your goods to Wall St! Heh, heh, heh...

I think it should be about time to rattle the gnomes' cages at the mailroom. ( Tomorrow at the latest )

On the gold bottom poll..."is the bottom in?"...Nope, gold will never be at the bottom. It is the pinnacle of nonconsumable wealth...heh, heh...
However, the DOLLAR PRICE bottom is in...since 1933 at $20 per ounce.

get you some...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:49 - ID#215235)
What happened to this SA gold mining company. Can't find any news about it. Down from about 12 to 2 in one day. Anyone have some input? Thanks.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:50 - ID#286249)
Tolerant1-Away on the 16th

Belated, but heartfelt, wishes for 361 brand new days filled with all things bright and beautiful {:- )

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:51 - ID#384350)
I'm with you.

Fight the Power!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:53 - ID#182184)
RAN/Sharefin - Y2K Issues
Congratulations for being smart enough to be a contractor! Youre being paid twice as much as the bank employees. A few comments and questions to ask:

- Those "Mid-Management" types are usually MBAs with $500 suits that are being paid $35,000 per year to tell their bosses that everythings just fine. If they had ANY sense theyd be out making some real money working as a contractor, like you.
- If they are Y2K compliant, why cant they test now instead of June 1999?
- When does their fiscal year begin? ( If it begins 7/01/99, there wont be any time to fix anything! )
- If they have any interfaces ( EDI ) with state and local governments? Most of their fiscal years begin on 7/01/99.
- How many lines of code ( and how many data records ) have they scanned/remediated for date functions? ( This is THE ONE big question. If no one has the numbers, there is no way possible that they can estimate how much work is required. )
- Its great that their replacing their PCs and mainframes, but what other hardware? Network routers? Telephone equipment? ( In DOS mode, type "NVER" and hit return to see the Novell network version number. If its an old one, like 4.0, or 3.12, theyll have to upgrade their Network OS. )
- Whats their overall remediation strategy? Is their strategy to fix the code, and then fix their data? Fix the code first? Will they leave the data as-is, and fix the code to recognize that 01/01/00 is a year later than 12/31/99 ( windowing ) ?

A personal recommendation: start a file in preparation for the coming financial "Pearl Harbor". Put stuff in writing. If you meet with them in person, tell them that the reason that you put your concerns is writing is that your wife is being a big pain about this issue, because shes been reading the "Weekly World News" too much, or something like that.
If you write ANY COMPANY about their Y2K compliance, youll get a vague form letter that says "dont worry, well certainly be in business after 1999." ( Ive written these form letters for three companies. ) But, by writing your letter, you may be able to prove you warned them, and they just ignored the issue.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:54 - ID#288466)
Gianni Dioro @ Harmony = HGMCY

(Tue Oct 20 1998 15:57 - ID#284255)
I have seen some questionaires regarding banks and Y2k.
But would have to go looking for them.

I live in Australia where much goes on differently.

Perhaps Miro or someone else on this thread would be able to help you better.
My knowledge is rather broad than definative.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:02 - ID#339274)
FWIW We should have a two day rally tomorrow morning

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:04 - ID#288186)
COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS....(no changes except for copper)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 20

Gold 784,059 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,612,869 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 68,255 + 175 short tons

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:05 - ID#288186)
Cyclist; You're speaking about gold, right? Thanks...
: )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:09 - ID#31868)
PMF, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...I often borrow my neighbors bedroom, I would
never put the Ladies in harms way...nope...not never...I am a few generations down from the things that built the Old School...and the first in my family to walk upright...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:09 - ID#339274)
Yes,HUI closed up at their high.NEM should be 23 7/8 the
next two days.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:16 - ID#31868)
Third in the Great House of ARAGORN, Namaste' and a MONSTER GULP of
Patron to ya...check your email later...WHAT a gift my friend...salut

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:16 - ID#71231)
Trading volatile stocks
I have been in the volatile stocks and funds only. I don't use stops on low priced stocks and on volatile issues because of the MM practice of "sweeping". In this practice the MM acts to make a "sure" bet - he sees a pile up of stops and gets a large limit order in the other direction. he will sweep the bid or ask to activate all the stops and then work into the limit order knowing he has an inventory with a confirmed buyer or seller to take it off him at a known price.

The only drawback is that daytraders sometimes pile in on the sweep and push prices the "wrong" way.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:17 - ID#35757)
Russian Gold
Anybody got any idea how to get some of the gold coins that Russia is planning to mint? Might turn out to be an historic collector's piece.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:20 - ID#269469)
GLDFY plummet

Anyone know the story behind GLDFY?


Gandalf the White
(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:22 - ID#37885)
Duchman RE: gfsa
Please look at their webpage at
looks as if they are in a downsizing mode by attempting to sell off divisions and operations with two dividends in last couple months.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:28 - ID#31868)
Gianni Dioro, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...a priviledge to have ya aboard!
SDRer,Namaste' and a gulp to ya, such kind is a highlight on any day in this life for you to take the time...Thank YOU...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:28 - ID#432130)
A Namaste' and dig-it to ya. Gulp & a puff!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:31 - ID#254288)
After the merger with Minorca

McWatters will have about $10 million Canadian in cash after the merger. Its price in Toronto is $1.09 or about US $0.68, the company says it will produce about 183,000 oz at its Sigma and Kiena Mines this year. They've been bringing costs down considerably at these mines, for this reason and the weak Canadian dollar Mcwatters can earning real nice profits.

They should have roughly 50 million shares after the merger. PDG owns 7.3 million of these shares.

Factoid: they earned 3 cents per share in the last quarter with their gold sales price averaging US $300. I see this as preliminary to much better earnings.

Below it's considered that they will further drop costs by US $25 and that gold will average US $350 for 1999.

This estimate is based 'total company costs per oz", which include everything from taxes to the office coffee machine.

Q2 - earnings Can $1.2 million, or US $775,250
Q2 - ounces produced 47,473

Total company costs per oz in US$ =TCC

TCC= 300 -775,250/47,473 = US $283.7

Improvement Factor for 1999 IF = US $25

Projected 1999 TCC inc IF = 283.7 - 25 = US $258.70

Say 1999 TCC = $US 265 with a fudge factor for higher taxes.

Earnings in = ( 350-265 ) 183,000/50,000,000 = US 0.31 or
Canadian $= 0.48

ALL THE ABOVE IS JUST AN ESTIMATE AND THERE IS NO QUARANTEE ODF ITS ACCURACY, but I suggest you check this company out and use your own numbers.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:32 - ID#263278)
gagnrad @ 13:23 [I'm Novice, using my better half's PC]
You are correct about Stillwater and its current balanced hedging position, and thanks. SWC indeed seems a well run outfit, and it is not one to be shaken out of easily. I was alarmed at the extreme volume this morning before Silverbaron pointed out the reason. Still holding...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:36 - ID#374235)
y2k limited immunity signed by Klinton

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:47 - ID#269409)
@ Isure
Hope you're still holding those Lor shares you bought a couple weeks ago. Almost 20% gain in 2 days...not bad eh?

I've got most of my 401K eggs in that single basket thankfully, but sold some on the close today to lock in profits and hope for anotehr downturn for buyback opp.


Go Gold!

Go SSC you dog of a silver stock....for that matter ...go silver you dog of a semi precious metal!

( I don't care, I'm buy.....well.....never mind! )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:48 - ID#39857)
broking arms that cant raise their palms, get severed from body

(Tue Oct 20 1998 16:57 - ID#368244)

Still got em, and picked up another 1000 at 11, but this darned gold is killing me. Looks like I will have a tax loss to carry forward for next few years.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:02 - ID#290456)

Did you know that you can change your posting identity ( to your own ) on Blonde's PC just by writing over her password?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:07 - ID#306150)
@Traders - Reprise
Posted the following yesterday afternoon - don't think I got a response? Any Traders out there agree or disagree?
"Gold and Silver Traders - The main insight I get from putting together APH's and other
predictions here is that we are, ( obviously ) , Still In The Box ( as I posted about two
weeks ago ) . Correct strategy for a conservative trader, therefore, is to Stand Aside
until certain support or resistance lines are convincingly breached. ( eg. Buy Gold @
$$307-$310 with tight ( $5? ) stop loss, Sell Gold @ $287-$285 with tight ( $5? )
stop loss. Sell Silver below $4.85 and Buy above $5.05 - again with tight stop losses (
$ .06-08 ) ) . In the meanwhile stand aside. Does this make sense? Comments; APH,

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:08 - ID#31868)
gwyz, Namaste'...gulps and puffs...dig it? seems like this shakedown is making
everyone gold, silver and platinum and mining shares?...I say this baby melts down any day now...a long while back I said watch the unemployment figures and it looks horrible out there...I feel for those folks...this thing is going to get real ugly...

The lunatics ARE definitely running the asylum...yup...uh much for the boy loser Clintler calling Asia a GLITCH...what a dimwit-dirtbag.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:28 - ID#290172)
o my goodness...everytime one thinks one is beyond surprise...

( 1 ) How excessive and misguided regulation of depository institutions has created a gigantic, lawful opportunity for their avoidance.

( 2 ) How electronic technology can enable a bank to unbundle the loan origination/funding process. Instead of originating and funding a loan, a bank can do what they do best - which is evaluate credit, originate and monitor loans - and leave the funding process to an entity governed by less regulation.

( 3 ) The bank identifies a lender/investor to fund the loan and the bank agrees to take full responsibility for reimbursing the lender/investor. This facilitates the borrower's needs, enables the bank to earn a fee which provides for current income, AND DOES NOT REQUIRE THE BANK TO PUT AN ASSET ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET.

( 4 ) How a highly liquid secondary market for money market instruments - including clean standby letters of credit - facilitates investing in near-riskless bank instruments that, while not insured, compete with bank liquidity products and generally offer higher yields.

( 5 ) The private market for clean standby letters of credit could be described as a disguised Eurodollar loan syndication since these transactions generally occur outside the U.S. and, therefore, involve Eurodollars.

( 6 ) According to the Securities and Exchange Commission, ( S.E.C ) letters of credit are exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933."

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:30 - ID#288186)
Hey, Kevan, whatcha been up to? I haven't posted to ya in quite awhile!
Are ya still listenin' to that goooood music ( David Grisman and Co. ) ?
You know, I think this ole DOW BULL is gettin' "OLD AND IN THE WAY"...
It's time for a new young bull!! How about....Hmmmmmmm.....I know!
GOLD! SILVER! PLATINUM! GOLD STOCKS! Yeah! That's the ticket!
* *
* ( comin' very soon ) *
* *
* *
BTW, Happy Belated B'day....See ya, Fox-man

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:33 - ID#39857)
the afr is programmed to spin
the bit I like is.......
Although Zhu had threatened to execute bankers who disobeyed him, the magazine pointed out, "he has not, as far as is known, ever shot anyone. The Armed Police do it routinely".
from .......

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:39 - ID#254321)
The danger of farming out bank loans to other firms
SDRer: Interesting comment. The US banks and mortgage firms have been checking credit, arranging loans, and then selling them to another vendor for years. This must be a relatively new thing in Europe.
You raise another corollary relevant both to the US and Europe. And that is -- who is liable if the debtor defaults -- The 'loan arranger' or the loan manager? What if the 'loan arranger' gets sloppy, and relaxes the rules a bit to generate needed income, and the loan manager is left with a rash of loan defaults? The system is pegged to fail if credit gets tight.
Another way to pass the buck so to speak, IMHO. And we thought the Calif 125% equity loans were a problem.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:45 - ID#273432)

FWIW - a nice cup bottom forming on Cameco Corp. ( CCJ ) Uranium with a nice gold kicker to boot.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:54 - ID#269409)
@ JTF...Leonids will have little "impact"
JTF, re your earlier AM that you're thinking/hoping for a 4 satellitte "kill" from the Leonids...leading to global market panic and meltdown...leading to Gold price rises ( uh huh.... )

Now leaving aside the whole philosophical discussion as to why GoldBugs are always hoping for the destruction of all things productive.....and all mankind....etc....

I think the impact from Leanoids will be minimal. Being we're one of the top three players inthe sat. biz we're QUITE interested in the subject abd therefore have done a lot of study of the issue. Those in the know here assure me that the chnaces of wholesale Sat destruction ( more than One sat damaged of the hundreds orbiting for example ) are quite small.

We will be taking prudent precautions of course. Turning the Sats to minimize their solar panel exposure to the direction of the nuclear velocity bb's....etc.

If you'd like to do your own calculations for potential Sat damage, check out this link.

( PS don't want to check this link since nothing there can be believed !!!! )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 17:54 - ID#31868)
FOX-MAN, Namaste' gulp to ya you Dawg your Honor I listen to cuts 3 and 5
on Dawganova as I slap back this gulp...thanks man for the belated..., silver, platinum...heavy metal eh...

heh...heh...heh...I say good riddance to that garbage fiat...which is produced by those dirtbags who would rob U.S. of our FREEDOM...that would be them thar bankers and politicians...and the whores Clintler and Robbin Rubin and the pimps who pay to parade them around...

I say iffin it hits the ground and don't make a noise it ain't money...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:00 - ID#252150)
Johan@You're right. The parasitic scum always pick on the powerless.
They have no dignity, honour or humanity.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:00 - ID#43460)
Blonde Novice or Novice Blonde, whichever
Yes, I'm hanging on too, but then I've bought into SWC for a longer term hold. I think that if it is possible to have a mining growth stock, SWC may be the one. I won't buy any more unless it dips much lower though on pure technicals. IMHO

Now if all these OTHER precious metal stocks would go ahead and turn around then I'd be happy! This sector is as bad as biotech the last 2 years! IMHO

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:03 - ID#290145)
CRB news
Platinum hit a 7 year low intraday. Russian deliveries are arriving in Japan. Not much in the way of news.....

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:08 - ID#206298)
We should look at this. Something big could be cooking . Anybody have any knowledge as to why they dropped 80% over the past 2 days. If its a fluke , it may be a great buy!!!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:08 - ID#31868)
Johan, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...
and I SECOND James's post at 18:00...yes I DO!!!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:14 - ID#343171)
don't know about cameco on the charts but I do know there
is a bunch of uranium on the market right now and the price
is not that great. fwiw

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:19 - ID#252150)
KitCat@Anyone who invests in the V. jrs has been screwed by them.
There's no doubt in my mind that at least 90% of them are run & controlled by sociopathic crooks. I was extremely lucky with BGO/AZS, but have given a lot back. In many cases because of a combination of manipulation & illiquidity. I just sold my last 1 ( SJD ) after it did'nt move on drilling results. I now stick to trading pdg & abx, long & short.

I would be very careful about buying any jrs right now. Unless we get a good move up in POG, tax loss selling will decimate most of them. I do own some BGR Prec mtls wts ( 04 ) & add to them on weakness. Around mid Dec. I may roll the dice with an interesting little Fund ( Multiple Opportunities ) that invests in the jrs. At least you get lots of diversification & they get warrants & options etc. It has had a couple of years where it doubled & in 93 I think it was ip over 150% at 1 point.
Of course, it will take a real AU bull to get it moving up.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:23 - ID#408147)
Looks an awful like a 10/1 split... ( jump immediately from 15 to 1.5 ) Any confirmations?

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:23 - ID#212323)
EJ--scanning back through many missed posts (due to my unrelenting schedule)
You had written--
"EJ ( General ) ID#229207:
Am I naive to say that Platinum is an industrial metal, like silver,
which falls in price like any commodity in anticipation of a recession,
while gold may be pulled down by the same forces but pulled up at the
same time when currencies are devalued, because gold has had a
historical role as a store of value relative to currencies? If so, there
may be a time when Platinum, far more rare than gold but a little goes a
long way in industrial applications, has a lower price in dollars than
gold because Platinum is not percieved as a store of wealth?"
All commodities ( read "hard assets and things of value" ) float relative to each other as their need changes in importance--whether real or perceived. "Real" tends to support longer lasting adjustments to the realative value versus all things than "perceived" does. Supply and demand forces then give rise to additional fluctuations in relative value. Having said that, understand that the real importance of platinum and silver is found in their function as industrial commodities. That dictates their value in today's world beyond any other use for the metal. Platinum is indeed rare, but is no more rare than gold. Some sources indicate equal quantities of each on Earth, while others indicate that the element gold remains a fair bit rarer than platinum. It is just that thousands of years of global active mining for gold has resulted in an impressive post-mined stockpile, while platinum has not received this same attention. As utility for platinum was recognized, its mining has increased, yet supply seems tight in relation to demand, so stockpiles are small and the price is high ( as it should be for such a rare and useful industrial commodity ) .

Gold's value is set by its importance as a financial commodity, moreso than its value as an industrial commodity--which would be on par with platinum. As an industrial commodity alone, gold's price would surely fall because, unlike platinum, there is a ready supply of post-mined gold to meet any consuming industrial demand. But the operative word is "unlike ( platinum ) ". Gold's relative value remains high despite this "overhanging stockpile" because this same "overhanging stockpile" in the vaults of nations and individuals gives unrefuteable evidence that gold is used first and foremost as a financial commodity. Its widespread occurrance yet overall scarcity, together with its other properties, has made it uniquely suited to play the role as the world's ultimate money. It does no good to ask, "Why gold?" If there were some other element better suited, we would be having this discussion about it instead. "It" is not platinum, "it" is not silver, "it" is not sand or tree bark or water. It is what it is, and it needs no introduction.

got gold?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:23 - ID#43460)
FWIW, SWC press release
The SWC stock sale was priced over $30US and this in the face of a multiyear low in the price of platinum. Please recall that most of their output is palladium and they have much more favorable forward sales than last year's prices.

Has anyone figured out the weight of a gold golf ball yet?

Man can not live by golf alone, so here is a music site I just found today:

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:25 - ID#273432)
I think this is the answer to your question about Goldfields.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:34 - ID#28994)
LGB 17.54
I must agree with you 100% on your posting, in all respects. The chances of these satellites being wiped out is complete stupidity, afterall, we've had satellites orbiting the earth for 30 years and I have not at one instance lost any programming because of a space attack on our man-made objects.
If you go back on past postings, you will find at the present time paper money is worth absolutely zilch. We are in a world-wide depression and the Dow Jones is hovering in the neighborhood of 500. There is a blood bath in the streets and all the wise people who are prepared are eating freeze dried food and shooting guns of various calibres, guages, and descriptions at one another to protect their 2 oz. of gold. As many have claimed, the only money of logic and merit is pure gold. I have yet to figure out how I am going to be paid for the gold from my gold mine. Will I receive 100 lbs of gold for 100 lbs of gold?
My good capitalist friends now have the whole world all hyped up on Y2K and are making millions on Y2K. Sure, Y2K may cause a few problems, but its not going to be the end of the world. All major airlines will probably be flying New Years Day.
Unlike Mozel, whose argument could possibly go on for a great length of time, I will be proved right or wrong in little more than a year. I predict Y2K will turn out to be a bunch of overblown CRAP.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:35 - ID#71231)
Good roundup of issues

Note: Gold short: 9000 tons - 250 mil oz

Data Derived from International Monetary Fund Statistics -

Country____Gold Reserves_Gold Reserves__ M-1

____________Mil Oz_____ Long Ton $ ____Billions

USA_________261.8______ 8,143__________1,231

Germany______ 95.2_ _____2,960___________496

Switzerland____ 83.3_______2,590___________ 79

France_______ 81.9_ _____2,546___________288

Japan________ 24.2__ _____754__________1,657

UK__________18.4__ _____574___________172


(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:42 - ID#206298)
Thank you.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:46 - ID#26793)
Dow Gold Ratio = 28.74. The 233 day moving average is 28.75

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:50 - ID#277302)
"Weird Scenes Inside the Gold Mine"
As the doors of perception are thrown ajar
We realize that only underground solitude
Spawns true wisdom and enlightenment;
As another Golden plaque is plucked from
Deep within our mother's bowels, we are left
Will it be destined to "rot" in yet another
Dark, underground vault, or will it shine
Onto the fingers and hearts of a thousand
Newly-wed brides?
Will it come already engraved with the Lord's
Wisdom upon it, with words of warning to those
That attempt to control its power Or will these words be cast by one
Under its hypnotic influence, or by another
Under yet other influences
Of vile weed and nectar?
Is its demand a true barometer of economic health,
Wealth and well-being and its demise a warning
Of economic disease and cancer that threatens
To spread out of control?
And why do the "doctors" that have the cure,
Still threaten to unleash the disease
Onto the unsuspecting populace?
Why do the "spin doctors" that aim to profit
From its demise, are allowed to continue
To promote their selfish agendas to the detriment
Of those already enlightened by its brilliant shine
And to the perpetual impoverishment
Of the already enslaved masses of believers?
Let Gold shine in the light of day
If that is indeed your true intention
But do not manipulate its worth
In the heart of woman and man;
Abandon and abolish your manipulatory schemes
And let true supply and true demand
Determine its absolute value...
But take into account the bloated ones
That perish daily of poverty and malnutrition
And the ones that wait in line, right behind them,
The ones who may be saved by its value
In the eyes of those who are bloated daily
By over-consumption;
Once the brain is drained to the West,
The body, although capable and willing
To work hard, both above and below ground,
Its work is neither needed, nor desired
And the body is left to wither and die,
In "quiet desperation";
"The West" may very well be "The Best"
But it must let the East, North and South
Raise its head out of the mire of poverty
And dependency, by affording them a chance
To contribute to the world economy,
By whatever limited means they may possess
Under their own two feet.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:50 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .252. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:52 - ID#71231)
James - penny golds
As Bre-X was hyped up, all the microgolds ( gold explorers ) saw their stocks decimated. The addition of the gold washout in August, the fact that there was no rebound in the stocks ( until a tentative rally this last week ) . This is due to gold price recovery being insufficient to allow the companies to raise capital for further exploration. Some have issued discount convertible preferred shares and have been decimated as dilutive conversions were made and sold forward. A stunning example of the latter is Casmyn -

The company is now producing gold and has cash in the bank at 5 times its market cap - but no one touches it because of the threat of unlimited dilution by the preffered share holders.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:55 - ID#273432)
It's uncertain just how much Uranium is out there at present. This first link says they is a shortage. The second summarizes how much Uranium is need in the next 20 years. Hint: IT IS A LOT!

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 20 1998 18:56 - ID#295111)
XAU Today
ABX-Barrick Gold------CLOSED AT $20.8750 0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.15
ASL-Ashanti Gold-----CLOSED AT $08.8125 0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.02
BMG-Battle Mountain---CLOSED AT $05.2500 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.14
CDE-Coeur D'Alene----CLOSED AT $05.6875 0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.00
FCX-Freeport Mc------CLOSED AT $12.6250 0.6250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.37
GGO-Getchell Gold-----CLOSED AT $16.1250 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.05
HL-Hecla Mining--------CLOSED AT $04.5000 0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.09
HM-Homestake Gold---CLOSED AT $12.0625 0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.13
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $22.8125 0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) 0.35
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $14.2500 -0.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.05

XAU CLOSED AT 74.54 1.28

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:00 - ID#238468)
Testing my new Explorer..

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:00 - ID#273432)
Sorry about the typos in last post. Clumsy.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:00 - ID#301259)
A.G.Edwards and Sons Has gone to a hot line buy on NEM looking for 26 in two weeks or so . Their hot line buy system is based on technical valuation data. They also think the xau is in for a bounce. Me thinks it has alot to do with the POG however Nem may stand alone as it may have been unfairly pummeled down way beyond the norm Soro's offshore fund Quantum, I think at one time owned about 10% of NEM just as Russia blew up Cash crunch? Then heavy inside buying NEM probably is still much too low IMHO

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:02 - ID#43460)
Ever the optimistic soul!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:04 - ID#28994)
One thing I am thrilled to see is a ongoing discussion of gold mines on Kitco.
Like Willie Sutton said,,... That's where the gold is.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:05 - ID#71231)
James - penny golds - cont.
These factors have made the shares near worthless. Tax loss selling will eradicate some as each rally is sold into. But a small but obvious rally in gold will suffice to put some life into the shares and in a sustained gold rally, they will explode. The trick: patience, diversification, cautious timing and good research.

Doctor Gold
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:05 - ID#272136)
Kitco Inc. - Near-Live Market Update....Revised to Near - Useless
Come on gentlemen...First the site was incredibly the data both tabular and graphic is hardly ever current let alone reliable.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:09 - ID#295111)
@Cooljing @sSilverbaron
The Uranium play could be a very prosperous one longterm. My feeling is that the DEMAND for electricity will outstrip DEMAND for Gas/Oil as time goes by. Electricity can be produced from Gas/Oil and that ugly black rock...coal.

The real question is whether governments can withstand pressure groups who fear the use of Uranium. Germany, with the Green Party, up its nose, is negotiating to shut down nuclear facilities.

However, if you guys want to invest, consider CAMECO. They are a growing GOLD producer. They own the 2nd largest gold mine in the world. 5% of CAMECO revenues come from Gold.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:09 - ID#254321)
LGB: Thanks for the Gov't link. I read somewhere that this shower will be greater than any we have had for many, many years. I also do recall some official government publication -- NASA or JPL or? -- mentioned that this could be a serious problem given the unusual intensity of the shower. Apparently the last one like this was long before we had heavy communication satellite use.

Only one satellite needs to go down if the rerouting backup is not available at that time of day. For example, Galaxy 4. Any news on what happened to Galaxy 4? That one caused considerable disruption -- with no apparent cause for the failure. But -- the markets handled the disruption fairly well. Now -- if that happened at a critical time -- it might have been a different story.

By the way -- how are you able to buy and sell Loral Stock with your 401k? I have a 403b, and can only buy/sell Fidelity mutual funds. Can't even buy foreign currency Fidelity funds,even though they would be more secure than equities. Most retirement accounts are even less flexible than mine.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:11 - ID#429363)
You really need to be careful when you buy break-outs in Gold or sell break-downs. When gold looks like it is going to take off that is the time to sell it and when it looks like it will drop hard that is when you should cover or go long. We have been between 290 and 300 +/- a few for longer than I want to think about it, much much to long. One day we will move but until then sell at or above $300 and cover at or below $290.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:14 - ID#174239)
Why is Platinum plummeting?
I beleive that RJ, one of the best forcasters here, recommended platinum a few months ago. Since then it has been in drifting down steadily. Is it because of Russias troubles? Is it because of a predicted recession lowering demand for jewelry and industrial uses?

I wonder what fundamental needs to change in order for platinum to go back up.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:17 - ID#71231)
Silverbaron, CoolJing - uranium
The table referenced is CUMULATIVE, you need annual numbers given in

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:17 - ID#273432)
Tantalus Rex

My earlier post about CCJ was that there appears to be a cup bottom forming - looks like a breakout may happen in the next few days ( IMHO ) .

More than 50 NEW reactors are scheduled on stream in the next several years - good for Uranium, even without another oil crisis ( which I think is a good possibility ) .

Steve in TO
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:17 - ID#209265)
Tonight is the night of the . . .
New Moon! Actually, it happened @ 17:02 UTC ( 3:02 pm EST ) and tonight will be black up there.

There's a definite trend toward irrationality around the time of the full moon, but sentiment shifts can happen around the new moon.

Will we see some strange things start to happen later this week?

- Steve

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:18 - ID#295111)
@Cooljing @Silverbaron (Mistake in my last note)
CAMECO owns co-owns the 10th largest GOLD mine in the world, not the 2nd.

Bully Beef
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:20 - ID#260119)
Dear Doctor Gold... If you don't like Golf...
Get Off the Fairway. ( We know.It's not relevent.sp. ) Really I don't care much about the price of gold unless it's at least 320. Then I think I'll take notice.I was supposed to sell this month if gold didn't recover. It didn't and neither did I. Good thing my wife lost a wack of moola. Otherwise it would be difficult.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:21 - ID#384350)
For what it's worth, I read an article that claims that unleaded gasoline and the catalytic converter came about because the oil companies didn't want to spend money on refining a cleaner product and thus the catalytic converter came into being.

I also read a book that spoke of Russia and how the Revolution was in fact a foreclosure by the international banking cartel, and that today Russia owes 100's of Billions to the International Bankers.

How is Russia to pay its usurers. Obviously they need to sell something that others are willing to buy like Gold, Platinum, or Chromium. The communist takeover of Rhodesia by the International Bankers, the boycott against the former Apartheid So. Africa had in effect created a monopoly of sorts for the ores that Russia mined and sold on the international markets ( Chrome, Platinum ) . Russia was able to raise prices and in turn came up with money to pay its masters ( international bankers ) .

There is perhaps a link for the commercialisation of Platinum in Catalytic Converters, and that Russia, an indebted slave nation, produces most of the world's Platinum.

The Lies of Unleaded Petrol

War Cycles Peace Cycles - R K Hoskins

The Committee of 300 - Dr. John Coleman

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:23 - ID#295111)
Re: CCJ. Thx. I hope you're right. CAMECO recently purchased Uranez who they tell me also produces Gold. If Gold takes off, so does CAMECO.

I just signed on.. I'll have to check out the previous posts on CCJ.

Bully Beef
(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:28 - ID#260119)
Brabo Christopholis!
Or is that bravo.If currencies were tied to gold there wouldn't be so many screwed up economies right now. Now you've got money and now you don't. That's CRAP!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:30 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm FOR THOSE WHO ARE STILL HOLDING U.S. EQUITIES, you are being given a fantastic opportunity to sell at prices not far below those of the spring and summer, especially if you are holding those "nifty fifty" shares which are actually showing gains for calendar year 1998. The world's financial problems were not magically solved with the recent Fed interest rate cuts; if they had been, the spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries would have returned to pre-"correction" levels, and they are still abnormally wide, indicating that a recession is approaching. Panic before everyone else does. The volatility index VIX hit an intraday bottom of 29.14 on Tuesday, its lowest point since August 25. Investors are going long equities and selling volatility ( i.e., betting on stable long-term gains ) in the stock market precisely when they should be selling short and buying volatility. It is as if the events of the late summer never happened.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:34 - ID#432395)
VSE Juniors---Check this one out--Polymet Mining Corp--POM--Close 1.15
I believe the Preacher mentioned this one awhile back.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:36 - ID#72316)
I'm the pro on Cameco in toronto,, CCO,, and that is where it trades by far the most.. The new York market is mainly a computer programed arbitrage off of the Toronto Quote..
They recently cancelled an agreement to purchase some other big gold project over there..


(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:44 - ID#31868)
Namaste', This could be an interesting show...Y2K...ya know...the other glitch... SPECIAL NEWS FLASH Scott Olmsted will be on ABC Nightline with Ted Koppel tonight! Don't miss it. Tune in after your local news tonight and see if the mainstream TV folks sound-bite sensationalize Scott or do him justice.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:53 - ID#220325)
Mike Stewart- Thanks for your posts
Do you have a business email adddress please??

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:54 - ID#343171)
cobalt/copper/nickel in Minnesotta, reco'd by Mike Scheafer awhile back,
my problem with it is possible creepy metallurgical hassles and
a metals mix that is deflating, fwiw

(Tue Oct 20 1998 19:59 - ID#26793)
Details of Argentina gold and gold coin sale

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:00 - ID#384350)
Dr. John Coleman Link
This book is a real can of worms. Written in 1992 by a former intelligence agent, it asserts that the world is run by 300 of the world's elite. It's an incredible read that among many things, mentions a link between Gold and the opium trade.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:03 - ID#26793)
Daiwa, Nikko each lose 10 billion yen in past 6 months.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:03 - ID#343171)
Just gotta love the wankers at Reuters:
"Many Central Banks around the world have recently reduced their gold holdings."
err uhh like hey man didn't some CBs like add a buncha gold holdings too?

The dumbing down is about 3 generations deep now!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:06 - ID#26793)
No problem. All the more for my pocket at lifetime low prices.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:06 - ID#270253)
My email is

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:09 - ID#28994)
Gianno Dioro . Platinum.. 19.21
It is ironic at the present time that we are talking about oil companies and the platinum used in exhaust converters. We are 1 year away from the turn of the century. One hundred years ago we were coming off the steam age, horse & buggy, and entering Henry Ford's world of the car & mass production. Not many years later the Wright bros. flight at Kitty Hawk. The last hundred years could surely be classed as oil dependent. I believe we are in the dawn of a new age with alternative fuels, however, I feel that the major powers will be reluctant to bring this technology to the forefront in a expedient amount of time. I feel this because of the thousands of corner gas stations and thousands of people employed in the industry worldwide. This technology in all probabilities will probably be released at a slower rate in order to accept changing times. Y2K will turn out to be a bunch of overblown CRAP.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:10 - ID#26793)
"Markets are telling us we have to charge more for risk"

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:13 - ID#347457)
@@Skinny on Y2K
Skinny, your statement "My good capitalist friends now have the whole world all hyped up on Y2K and are making millions on Y2K." is a bit out of reality. Sorry pal, I am in close contact with most companies working on Y2K and it's not making people richer than any other computer related "stuff." Yeah, you can make money on it, but mostly it's business as usual. You do less "new development" and do more Y2K stuff. None of the companies selling Y2K software tools are making as much money as they though they would, the same goes for Y2K service providers.

As I said, business as usual, if you know what you doing you would make the same money on "non-Y2K" business. Life goes on, get some decent skills and you make money no matter if Y2K is around or not. If you believe that Y2K people are paid just because they created Y2K hype I have a bridge to sell you.

How it will play when we cross the century? Only fools are brave enough to make the prediction. If we do OK, you better believe it's because Y2K people created "hype" and companies spend the money on fixing it.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:13 - ID#290172)
Erle-from one literary twit to another,
grateful thanks for introducing me to the delightful Mr. Nock.

by Albert Jay Nock
( reviewed by Roy A. Childs, Jr., September 1989 )

Books on Thomas Jefferson come and go, and over the past two hundred years probably as many books on some aspect or another of Jefferson have seen print, most of them promptly disappearing forever. A few, however, live on, and develop devoted followings that transcend this or that fad in "Jeffersonian studies."

One such work is Albert Jay Nock's Mr. Jefferson, first published in 1926 on the occasion of the centenary of Thomas Jefferson's death; it has been reprinted again and again for more than sixty years, and now reappears in yet another timely edition.

A Study in Character
Nock's book is not strictly speaking a biography; as he puts it, it is "a mere study--a study in conduct or character." But "mere" is hardly a word that applies to anything Nock wrote: he was a consummate stylist, and also one of the most original and penetrating minds of the twentieth century. He also happens to be in uncanny sympathy with Jefferson's thought. For him, Jefferson was no mere historical figure, and his concern with the growth of government is no mere curiosity to Nock, either. It is perhaps this identity of interests and political values that makes the book so striking. There are, of course, other similarities: both Jefferson and Nock were elitists of a sort, believing in "natural aristocracies," but both opposed state-granted privileges even more. If anything, Nock's perspective might be properly regarded as a purification and extension of Jefferson's own. Thus this "character study" gets us very close to Jefferson; at times Nock's ability to show us Jefferson's world through his own eyes is almost eerie.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:13 - ID#26793)
Late afternoon stock selloff blamed on new hedge fund revelations

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:21 - ID#343171)
Paloma Fund, a dovew that soared too high
Neat quote in the story referring to the XO:
``He is a very conservative...individual,'' the source said. ``It would be very surprising if he took a lot of risk.''

They were saying similar things about the good time charlie Nobel prize winners over at LTCM!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:25 - ID#390337)
27.25 oz of pure gold per golf ball

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:25 - ID#26793)
Another bank reporting large Russian losses.

Gianni Dioro
(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:27 - ID#384350)
Yep, the technology is already there for cheap, clean and plentiful energy, most notably solar power. However like you say, the Industries of Energy haven't allowed it to become realised. They don't want people to be self-suffiicient. The only place I saw solar power to a discernable degree was in Greece, produced by Siemens.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:27 - ID#273432)
Hmmmmmm....this is very interesting -just wish they had more gold stocks in the system, which projects INDIVIDUAL stock prices 5 days into the future:

Mo in To
(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:28 - ID#347205)
Scam Warning
To all at Kitco,
( you may know this already but... ) I was alerted by our tech department at work today about this cos someone tried it on our firm. If anyone calls you claiming to be from the phone company testing the line, then asks you to hit 9 0 # ( pound key ) DON'T DO IT. Doing so will give this bunch access to your phone lines and long distance bills, etc., can be run up ad infinitum. Tell them no, you are on to them and that you will alert the local authorities.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:31 - ID#26793)
Cargill reports massive Russian trading losses (down 95% for 3Q)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:33 - ID#190411)
I am flattered and grateful that you read Mr. Nock.
I have been giving copies of his books to people that I hoped would read him, for years. I just had the feeling that he would be known to you, or that you would find a kindred spirit.
Judging from the personalities that I envision on this site, My guess is that there are many that would enjoy his work.
Earl, Tolerant1, Mole, Donald, and many others would get a kick out of the wordview of this man. There is nothing quite like him in the modern press.

Cooljing, the wankers at Reuters didn't bother to give the address for the Argentine Gold Coin Sales Desk.
I said last night that they should buy a banner ad at Kitco to sell the coins, rather than selling them at discount to spot for the refining fee. My, aren't they stupid?

Hell yes, I'll buy some scrap gold! ---- can't play golf.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:37 - ID#28994)
Miro 20.13
Yes.. my capitalist freinds were dumb enough to invent the computer and then send a man to the moon.
But they were smart enough to build in y2k.
I will stay by my word,,,,They are making millions.
They own the freeze dried food and generator factories.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:44 - ID#254288)
Republic is a Bullion Bank

For months the big banks have been circling their wagons to ward of the attack. The Swissies, Citigroup and the band plays on.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:45 - ID#190411)
Argentine coin sale
100,000,000 paper USD/FRN for 1.54 million gold coins, comes out to 64.935065 USD/FRN per coin.
My guess is that these are Argentine 5 Peso.
Does anyone know the Troy Ounce content for these?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:50 - ID#390337)
@gagnrad, 24.84 troy ounces per
golf ball

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:50 - ID#273432)

Argentine 5 Peso - 7.2581 grams / 0.2334 Tr Oz Fine Gold; 8.0645 grams total weight

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:51 - ID#347457)
@skinny and capitalist friends
Oh, I see. Y2K was invented by some smart ass capitalist.

Well, I stop my discussion with you right here. No reason to argue with ignorance.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:54 - ID#28994)
So mote it be.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 20:59 - ID#190411)
Thanks, Silverbaron(Mr. Knowitall)
Silverbaron, would you buy these coins at 278.20USD/Troy Ounce?
That's the valuation put on them.
I'll take a thousand, or two. I'll sell my house to buy at that price.
AragornIII will probably get them before we do.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:00 - ID#411320)
AG can only keep the equities on life support for so long
the people have a false sense of security they think that the money in the stock market is wealth. The interest rate can go down to 0% and if
people have no purchasing power then goods and inventory just sit
and devalue...its here now! Don't get sucked into this sucker rally. Go
gold puts on indices and cash, or you will loose your ass,

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:07 - ID#273432)

Yep - sounds like a steal to me, especially for 100+ year old coins ... were minted 1891-1896.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:10 - ID#218249)
Go Hecla!!!!!
A nice little move today!
This could be the begining of the end for the stock market today. If history serves me correctly, didn't the big banks pull together to buy stocks and prop the market up right before it crashed? It kind of seems like the same thing was going on this last week. Gold feels to me like it is about to EXPLODE upward!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:18 - ID#432395)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:19 - ID#401460)

Tuesday October 20, 8:30 pm Eastern Time

Rubin-Time Needed To Solve World Problems,
Russia, Indonesia "In Dire Straits"


Yahoo only has headlines while in ASIA.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:24 - ID#222231)
Gianni Dioro
I posted the article ( Committee of 300 by John Coleman ) about one year ago. Need I tell you I was berated from one end of the spectrum to the other as a paranoidal conspiracy nut and that it was all claptrap. If one does'nt believe that evil forces are unleashed upon us by now, after all that has happened in these irrational markets, they never will.

We are all captives of a world company store and are being set up for the final sting, capturing our souls. Believe brother, believe.

May the FORCE be with you,


(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:30 - ID#373403)
Remarks by
William J. McDonough, President
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

before the Regional Y2K Meeting for Financial Regulators
in the Asia/Pacific Region
Sydney, Australia
October 19, 1998

Simply put, I do not think it would be possible to overstate the importance of the Year 2000 problem as an issue for the financial markets. Naturally, the tendency in these turbulent times is to focus on day-to-day concerns, and to leave future problems to be dealt with later. This tendency must be resisted strongly if we are to succeed in addressing the Year 2000 problem.

I say this because the Year 2000 problem is an issue for every country, firm, organization, government agency, bank, and piece of critical infrastructure in the world. If the Year 2000 problems that exist within software programs and embedded computer chips are not repaired by January 1, 2000, the affected systems will cease to function or will malfunction. Those firms that have checked for Year 2000 problems overwhelmingly have found that their systems were affected and would not have functioned
normally in the Year 2000 without being fixed. Moreover, the efforts of firms around the world have demonstrated that while the extent of the Year 2000 problem varies, no country or sector is immune from it or can afford to ignore its impact.

Lan Man
(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:33 - ID#320108)
@Leonid Buckshot
LGB - I say odds are at least one bird is swiss cheese.

( Remember El Nino )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:35 - ID#237299)
Gibbous: Don't you think their "0" rating is a bit complacent?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:40 - ID#213135)
The trades you outlined have the right direction, But like Glenn said the volatilty of the break outs could very easily stop you out. I would prefer waiting until the market backs into some kind of support or resistance.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:45 - ID#401460)
Pete (Gianni Dioro) 300

When I saw the name of one of our local ( very influential ) banks on the list, it added credibility to the conspiracy for me.

As I use to post, kitcoites, it is not a conspiracy, it is real and it is just business as usual.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:46 - ID#190411)
I wrote to the CB. I will keep you appraised of the situation if they answer.
I still have your email address from the time that you put me on to Nat golf exch. I never did thank you for that.
Your cageyness relating to POG and stocks is a welcome antidote to the cheerleader stuff. I just hope that you have been aboard for the last rise. You gave reasons why XAU could go to 35, but I bought some before, and after the 49 bottom.-- nearly made me puke.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:50 - ID#401460)

Nikkei 225

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:51 - ID#190411)
Happy Trails, se ya later

(Tue Oct 20 1998 21:56 - ID#411271)
FIBBONACCI #s No! But 666 x 3 = 1998 , or 7 years of peace ( Clinton
1993-2000 ) followed by 7 years of famine ( 2000-2007 Y2K anarchy ) . Or how about the beast shall arise from Rome? Check out my 9:26 today if you want to see where I am coming from. I have this half baked idea that needs

additional brainstorm ingredient to make something worth chewing the fat over.

Just got home from job#2 today, going to take a shower then would love to see someone pick up this thread. TIA

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:02 - ID#20748)
In the S&P futures market, as a rule, are you better off with market or limit orders.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:17 - ID#401460)
Abby made it!

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Goldman Sachs & Co. on Tuesday rewarded 57 employees, including influential Wall Street pundit Abby Joseph Cohen, with personal stakes in the elite investment banking partnership.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:23 - ID#259323)
SPOT @ $296.45
Maybe we will get a little bounce here!!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:30 - ID#300202)
WorldWide Conspiracies Do Exist-Self Perpetuating
Alignment of criminal groups such as Outlaws alignment with Cotroni ( Mtl )
versus Angels alignment with other groups. Not so outlandish when greed involved. Further examination is warranted in Jesuit control of Vatican/Opus Dei/P2/Masonic Lodges ( Scottish Freemasonary-Degree 32-64 )
& not the drinking club variety/Order of St John. Examine amounts collected versus distributed towards sick children ( 2% ) whilst driving
their funny little bikes & funny fez's. Not so difficult to comprehend
greed. Examine urselves. More real than UFO's. No fingerprints to convict
but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to peek beyond the fringe of what's to come!!!!! Wake up.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:31 - ID#31868)
O' I missing something or is the following exactly right in every way...
EDITORS NOTE: Erratum -- According to the editors of The
Papers of James Madison, the Madison quote in Federalist Digest
#98-41 regarding the Ten Commandments, cant be originally
attributed to Mr. Madison. While most of our historic quotes are
verified through the Library of Congress, this quote was taken from
a secondary, though scholarly source. The quote was most likely a
paraphrase from Mr. Madisons cousin, Bishop James Madison, or
from his father, James Madison, Sr. We regret the error.



Its not about sex. ... One should call an adulterous liar exactly
what he is -- a criminal. --Marine Maj. Shane Sellers in the Navy
Times. The Marine Corps is now considering whether to punish
Major Sellers for publicly speaking his mind about the Commander-
in Chief in violation of Article 88 of military law, which states, Any
commissioned officer who uses contemptuous words against the
President...shall be punished as a court-martial may direct.

It is unethical for individuals who wear the uniform of a Marine to
engage in public dialogue on political and legal matters such as
impeachment, Deputy Marine Commandant Gen. Terrence Dake
says. We are not politicians. We are not a Corps of lawyers. We
are warriors, nothing more, nothing less. The Federalist would
argue that soldiers of fortune are warriors, nothing more, nothing
less, General Dake. Marines swear their allegiance to our
republics Constitution, not some rogue president, potentate or

Upon being commissioned, Shane Sellers, an enlisted man who
rose through the ranks, pledged, I will support and defend the
Constitution of the Untied States against all enemies, foreign and
domestic; ... and bear true faith and allegiance to the same; ...and
well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am
about to enter. So help me God.

Paul J. Tetreault, Jr., legal scholar and National Director of the
military advocacy group, Citizen Soldier, notes, In calling for Mr.
Clintons resignation, Maj. Sellers was not only exercising his
Constitutional right to speak as a citizen, but also upholding his
own oath to oppose domestic enemies of the Constitution, an act
for which he may now very likely be punished.

Major Sellers may have taken a cue from Col. John R. Baer, who
wrote in a recent edition of Army Times, Simply stated, Ive
honorably adhered to the oath my father administered at my
commissioning over 27 years ago. ... Mr. Clinton, character is
important and youve negotiated away yours. By the time his
words went to press, however, Col. Baer had officially retired.

The question remains, was Officer Sellers using contemptuous
words against the President? In the end, he will most likely be
found in violation of Article 88. The irony is that Mr. Clinton grossly
violated his oath of office but will most likely escape penalty, while
Major Sellers has upheld his oath and will most likely be

The Navy Division Officers Guide notes: Remember that an
officers oath of commission obligates him to support and preserve
the Constitution. Since the Constitution defines the great moral and
judicial principles upon which our Republic is founded it follows that
an officer is, by his oath of office alone, committed to the exercise
of moral leadership.

We expect that Commandant Krulak will remember his oath before
weighing in on Major Sellerss case.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:32 - ID#432395)
@Obsidian---Yes......Yes I do.
Well off to bed. Markets up again tomorrow? I think so. Either way it's
definitely sell day-- ( Equities ) .


(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:40 - ID#31868)
here is the quote missing from my last post...I have no clue what happened...Agh!
Of all the dispositions which lead to political prosperity, Religion
and morality are indispensable supports. In vain would that man
claim the tribute of Patriotism, who would labor to subvert these
great Pillars of human happiness.... The mere Politician, equally
with the pious man, ought to respect and cherish them. --George

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:42 - ID#269128)
Slippry where slick willy is leading US.
If he had one shred of honour in his sick bones he would have resigned long ago, nay he would never had run for office knowing full well his unworthiness to serve the public good.

He has no honour and he is leading USA down a slippery dangerous slope that could end up in many horrible ways.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:51 - ID#28994)
P2 Masonic Lodge ( Italy ) scammed the Vatican for millions ( real money ) $U.S.A. on a South American ploy. Who else has done such a marvelous thing.
York Rite ...Scottish Rite
Keep your head low and gun loaded.
P.S. did you register on Kitco.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 22:55 - ID#300202)
Do ur own detective work Merkans
the new Agent Scully Dolls r not permitted for sale within Christian USA
a la crosses ( Christ Cross ) draped around the neck. Religious freedom will
go into da dumper. Just repeating mainstream press this date. Dolls r Barbie style. Another Frog in the Warm Waters.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:03 - ID#300202)
fully registered & kitco complient. Got the papers to prove it!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:05 - ID#206235)
Gold Numismatic News...from CDN


Most dealers in attendance at the Long Beach Expo said that generic Gold was extremely active and in demand on the bourse. They claim that there is a shortage of nice, reasonably priced Gold coins on the market. This was very evident at the Long Beach Expo held Sept 24-27. Generic Gold coins of all denominations were in demand. However, the strongest interest was for $5 through $20 Gold. Dealers look to the Expo as a vehicle for buying rare coins. They want to find coins that are interesting. These coins may have that extra pizzazz or eye appeal that collectors are demanding. They are also the coins that have some degree of scarcity. We understand that a large group of approximately 100 common date, certified MS64 $20 Saint-Gaudens traded hands at Long Beach. The purchase price was $675 per coin. Silver Commemoratives were also strong at the Expo. Dealers were buying Choice and better Commems for their customers as well as their inventory. They believe that many Commems are still trading at levels that add up to excellent value. Rare date Silver and Gold coins were also in demand at the Show. New Orleans and Carson City Mint Morgan Dollars brought strong money.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:05 - ID#287358)
Golf ball/ Coin carry trade
I think I'll just mosey on down to *Argent* ina and trade in some of my golf balls for 5-peso coins, and carry them back home. Thus the "carry
trade" angle.

Speaking of Argentina, Douglas Casey wrote a few years ago that one could buy a humungous cattle ranch or an abandoned coffee plantation for, what was it, $100. an acre. And that land included beachfront. That's how little the land was worth. I guess if the Argentine peso disconnects from the US$, and the country's economy collapses, similar opportunities will again be available. I can see it now... the privately-held
Kitco Gang's Golf Links. And the golden orbs would be *tossed* gently upon the soft grass.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:09 - ID#28994)
They must be a bunch of Jerks,,, never sent me my papers.
I will buy gold from them come year 2 grand plus 1 day Cause y2k will be a bunch of overstated CRAP.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:15 - ID#300202)
Vote Chretien & Nobdy Gets Hurt!!!!!
It cud have been baseball bats. What's Pepper Spray. Bully can answer.
Long live democratic socialism. Is it a conspiracy or is Chretien stooooopid?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:17 - ID#206235)
@ JTF.... 401K's, meteors, and stuff.....
Well, if you check the research sites, they indicate that the odds of a strike on a satellite, are equal or higher during a typical given year, due to "normal" levels of space debris, than what they will encounter during the Leonids.

I predict.... maybe an anomoly or big deal stuff.

As to 401K vs. 403B.... I've worked for Loral divisions for 15 years. Always had Fidelity managed 401K plan. We have an option in the plan of trading Loral stock ( the only pure stock play I can make...all the rest of the options are Fidelity stock or bond funds, money market fund, etc. )

We can make changes daily, so I trade large blocks in and out of Loral frequently. In spite of a whopping 60% loss in the stock price over the past few weeks, I've managed to recover my 401K through trading ( and moving a lot more of the pie into Loral... ) to within about 5% of where I was in July.

Only limitations on trades is that you can just do one move a day in or out of the various assets, and you are locked into the "closing" price for the day, not a "market" price. ( Actually, I much prefer this over an unknown "market" trade )

I worked for a semiconductor manufacturer for a year and they had exactly the same plan, with the exception that it was their stock which was the only pure single stock option.

I believe that this type fidelity plan is the most widespread and popular avialable so you might want to put pressure on your company to switch. There are NO FEES involved in any of the trades.

IMHO, 401K is an unbeatable investment. Tax free ( saving me 41% on each dollar put in ) , 30% company match ( which is automatically invested in Loral stock ) yielding an effective return of 71% even if there is no equity gain!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:18 - ID#206235)
golden eagle Sales still strong
September gold bullion sales total 233,000 ounces in coins

Uncirculated gold American Eagle bullion coins are still hot among collectors and investors, with 233,000 ounces sold by the United States Mint during September.

Septembers sales carried calendar year 1998s total gold sales to 1,246,500 ounces, and program totals since October 1986 to 8,615,000 ounces.

Sales of 1-ounce silver American Eagles during September reached 450,000 ounces, boosting annual sales to 2,685,000 ounces, and program totals to 72,151,500. Platinum sales in September topped out at 17,600 ounces, pushing sales for the first nine months of 1998 to 105,700 ounces, and program totals since September 1997 to 179,050 ounces.

During September 1998, the Mint sold 188,500 of the 1-ounce gold coins, 26,000 of the half-ounce coins, 50,000 of the quarter-ounce coins and 190,000 of the tenth-ounce gold coins.

Platinum sales in September reached 85,500 of the 1-ounce coins, 24,200 of the half-ounce coins, 19,600 of the quarter-ounce coins and 32,000 of the tenth-ounce coins.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:19 - ID#35757)
When the s*** hits the fan, the people will beg for the government to do something. Having been led into an existence of absolute dependence on 'the system' for the very essentials of life, they will have no choice but to surrender the few liberties that they have left. Of course the government has a plan. Electronic money ( only ) and a national ID card. Think of the benefits: Every transaction could be monitored. No more drug money, no more tax cheats, nomore buying booze or drugs with welfare money, no more deadbeat dads blowing their pay on hookers. No more illegal aliens. While we were at it we could make sure that seniors don't blow their social security money on bingo games. All the dollars will be called in and electronic credits issued. There will be a grace period after which the greenbacks will be recycled in the maner of your choice. Of course large amounts of cash must be properly accounted for.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:19 - ID#300202)
Warships stationed on both coasts & Horsemen will protect us & Ben Johnson can run faster than a horse. Are there any Newfoundland Goldbugs?

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:23 - ID#300202)
From anyone. Are my gold Mutual going up???? Will check ur answers in da morn.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:27 - ID#300202)
don't forget-aunt Annie said Moonwalk was a fraud perpetuated in Sudbury.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:32 - ID#411259)
..... Lying Sack-O-Gunny .....


Sounds to me as if you invested some money and lost some money.
Sad to read, that you did not do your homework, most here would, and have.
What happened, did the price move against you?
And it is all somebody else's fault, yes?
Is this the story you are trying to sell on this forum?
"High, my name is Gunny, and I blame others for what I do."
"Oh woe unto me, for the price moved against me."

How does this turn into lies and deceit? You have told five verifiable untruths, that I can prove. The recipients of your shady and untrue campaign have been forwarding you poorly written e-mails for months. But you will shout to all that it is all somebody else's fault.

Can I have a show of hands of all those who care a wit about this little ferret's smear campaign? It has been going on for almost 6 months, although most here don't realize that, because they skip right over the gun toting one's mysterious and oh so sneaky words.

Why are you so afraid, Gunny? Why do you speak in riddles? Why do you sit in the corner for six months, only to crawl out on your belly, make your cowardly and untrue attacks, and then crawl back into your own dried up puddle of urine to moan and cry and wail and lament that everything everywhere is all somebody else's fault?

I am willing to bet that you have similar problems with everyone you meet. Everybody screws up but you, yes? Do you follow advice when given to you? Were you advised to do trades that would limit your losses, nay, even gain you profits? Did you refuse this good advice? I rather think you would rather blame and point fingers at all sorts of folks, and carry on a cowardly sneaky e-mail campaign. It is no wonder that some folks will have nothing to do with you.

You are a sneak
You are a coward.
You are a liar
You act like a child
You are very unpleasant
You smell

Thus do I apprise you, lad.

Let's really get this thing going, now folks. I have had enough of this weasel of a guttersnipe and his yellow bellied attacks. We will set this straight, or we will fall in the attempt, yes?



Gunny, I gave you six months. I give you no more. Your attacks will stop. Count on it.

Indeedy and Righty O.. you stupid fool.


To the rest of the High and Mighty

Were are the words of scorn and derision towards Gunny, by the same folks who complain about me whenever I defend myself far better than the attacker attacked? Your words are being held back for some reason. This is an obvious and unwarranted attack by the rabid gun moll. Where are the folks to tell him to take his crap elsewhere? If you keep silent this night, then you are as shallow as I have always suspected. If these same folks wish to take me to task for this post, beware. I am in a jolly mood, and would love to snack on a few skulls, and gnaw on the cartilage this evening. I'm just getting warmed up.


Oh yeah, I will be gone for a time. Other's may take up my noble cause.

I am sure they will.

Uh Huh

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:35 - ID#300202)
If I was sure what it was-I'd predict 3 or 4. And i have Kitco Certified
Papers. Just havin' fun. goin to bed. Nfld Goldbugs plse call me.

Lonely in Cape Breton.
Hard being in the Witness Protection Progam

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:36 - ID#411259)
..... Why did the Lying Sack-O-Gunny cross the road? .....

Because somebody told him to.


(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:36 - ID#284255)
How Worried Are You About Y2K and Your Portfolio?
The Millennium: It's a television show, it's a marketing gimmick and it's bound to be a problem. But to what degree, and what does it mean for your investments? With the recent proliferation of Y2K self-help books, ad campaigns and compliancy requirements, wants to know if you think it's happening or if it's hype. Please participate in our poll.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:38 - ID#31868)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:38 - ID#35757)

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:38 - ID#411259)
..... What do you call a Lying Sack-O-Gunny at the bottom of a stinking hole? .....

A good start.

Uh Huh

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:39 - ID#238422)
morbius, Russian gold coins
AFTER ( or IF ) they mint it, talk to me again.
I may have some idea on how to get them.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:43 - ID#411259)
How many Lying Sacks-O-Gunny's does it take to screw in a light bulb? .....

Three hundred and sixty two.
360 to point fingers in every compass direction.
One to blame everybody else for his own stupid mistakes.
And one to complain that it's all the lightbulb's fault.


( I got a million of them. How many is that so far, only three? OK. Just a few hundred thousand to go. )


( thanks Eldo, for use of the HAR, it came in handy )

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:44 - ID#300202)
True Professionlism
wud not echo such thoughts unless for a reason/excuse! Healthy cyberfights r gud. Keeps our Hot Stove League Interestin. Going with the flow-to bed. Once again-r my gold mutals going up?????

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:45 - ID#238422)
LSteve, your favorite Furkagan is a piece of sh*t
even w/o zionist agenda. But I like you for your bravery,
so this shot is not for you....nothing personal...

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:46 - ID#242325)
I don't know if gold is set to explode, but it does look like another run at $300 before long. If Fed keeps cutting the funds rare, $300 will be a floor instead of a ceiling before too long.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:46 - ID#286249)
Tokyo commentary Mitsui gold

Tocom was a good seller yesterday but it turned to be a buyer today. We went up to the high with that buying but spot gold was well offered and we closed near the low.

Also we are seeing good physical demand for 4 x 9 kilo bars here at the moment.
Tokyo Gold
Open 295.85|296.25
High 296.70|297.10
Low 295.80|296.20
Close 296.10|296.50
Volume 43505 kg
114. 55
115. 35
114. 55

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:48 - ID#300202)
Canada shud go metric
That's when drug dealers get A'ssssssssss!

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:55 - ID#411259)
..... Actual Question on the California Drivers Exam .....

When a Lying Sack-O-Gunny is crossing the street in a properly designated crosswalk, you should:

A ) Step on the gas to run him down. ( if you are driving )

B ) Tell the driver to step on the gas to run him down. ( if you are not driving )

B ) Explain to him that you don't care if he thinks the traffic light is out to get him, but a poodle is peeing all over his shoes as he speaks.

C ) Dispose of properly at an approved toxic waste sight.

D ) Explain that all those guns are not necessary and that he is a whacko paranoid.

E ) Point at him and laugh.

F ) All of the above

Yep, that's it.

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:55 - ID#300202)
U require another personna. Too predicable! Ur Long Gold playin' devil's advocate. Have u got Kitco Papers?????
I'm long gold-too long"

(Tue Oct 20 1998 23:56 - ID#228128)
APH and Glenn both responded. Check back for their posts.