personally I think that DOW 10,000 is not too unreasonable......................of course I am the same guy that thinks the Padres can still WIN the 'World Series' ( US Baseball ) ................. ( like cricket but slightly less boring ) ...................hmmmm...
away.........to snooze
zzzzzzzz
plan yer wurk....and wurk yer plan......
din't knowd wut he meant 'till now.............DUH ;- )
@way........thejessasimplefolk
hows dat hurry cane?
further discussions of the topic this December. What are we to make of this. Most Kitcoites would scoff at such ludricrousy, but we should listen
more attentively as the gap in our belief as it may jusst be trying to tell us something. Among other things if this notion- public investment of ss funds- ever does come to pass, they will have to rename the character of a bubble market. Buy up McDonalds and Coca Cola now!!!!!
Seriously I think we have to awaken, and I think we all will with the continuing passage of time bringing us closer to Y2K, that economic good sense or even comprehensibility is not to be the norm. Why?
Check out my post 10/20/98 9:26 .
We will see concerns of inflation be non-exhistant increasingly absurd p/e ratios, absolute and irrefutable evidence of a PPT, and regrettably a POG driven to new lows.
I personally have call options spread out through the coming year
and I am holding them. & I have physical and will buy more as a hedge if
POG falls. MOst of my assumptions have come to me only after buying my option positions!
The only concern to become more increasingly evident will a propped up equity market ( to support the dollar ) and a depressed POG.
All this will accellerate after the elections regardless of the outcomes.
The why is in my previos post but to be short- Y2K will take us to
to a different world order.
Most small competitive firms in the US ( maybe Europe? ) will be ready. But -- the more ossified corporations ( the ones at risk for falling behind during times of change ) will be in trouble.
The worst offender will be the US government -- obvious to anyone who has worked in the federal environment. Yes -- my hat is off to the branches of our government who are doing something -- like Social Security. But -- all that work by Social Security is for naught if the Federal agency who writes the paychecks is not updated as well. The IRS is behind, defense is behind, and others as well, with effective readiness dates well after y2k.
Oh Well -- Y2k is just an example of survival of the fittest, isn't it?
Lastly, I find the computerization of Europe may be more significant than y2K itself. The implementation of the EURO if it comes off well will streamline debt/financial management -- as SDRer has mentioned. Here too, the ossified ( mostly financial ) corporations are at risk to fall behind the more modern computer literate firms. Just imagine what will happen to all those stodgy banks/financial firms that are used to arranging loans and collecting on them for generations. Now they can streamline like we have in the US and specialize just in loan arrangement, as well as loan management.
And -- they can make all the mistakes we have made in the US too. 125% equity loans, loans with insufficient collateral dumped on some loan management firm thousands of miles away that cannot possibly know the local risks.
Interesting times, aren't they? I think LGB is right that the Leonid shower won't knock out all the satellites, but just one good hit is needed to knock out one satellite. And no matter what you say, you cannot honestly believe that the risk of a satellite perforation during the shower is the same as from routine space debris. That is like saying the Leonid shower will never happen.
So y2K is not really all that unique -- just another way for the Darwinian weaning process -- survival of the fittest. The problems will be greatest where they were ignored the most.
I wonder how many of those ossified government agencies we will miss anyway if they fall on their faces. I would be happy if our government just focused on national defense, and setting minimum rules of trade. Alot cheaper more efficient that way. And then hopefully we would not be so broke that we cannot do anything really important, like making cheap reliable US launch vehicles so that we do not need Chinese ones. Alot of money to be made eventually in asteriod or lunar mining, if we could just get off our rear ends.
2000's point refreshes one made from this corner long ago. There is no escape. If things go really sour, we are all in trouble. We all live in a tight mesh. The occasional bum banging on the door in the middle of the night is not the problem. If you are still eating, it won't be long before a group arrives to find out why and to take it away from you. They will have been making a living doing just that and will know exactly how to do the job with a minimum of fuss. There will be no thin blue line around, either.
Now, does any /savant/ here have a comment about platinum's price convergence with gold? There is, to say the least, a trend. Does it correspond with the movement of the dollar? ( Yes, Bart, this is a golf list but platinum is a golf of another colour. )
I do not know how bad the Y2K problem will be -- but I admit I am beginning to be one of the 'hoarders'. I do not feel guilty about this, because it dates back to Biblical times, and make solid sense at all times, not even for Y2K.
Just look at what is happening right now in Texas. My Y2K model is for some sort of shared responsibility in handling disasters -- as exemplified by that woman volunteer in Texas who was helping others get to safety, only to watch her own house float away. This is what it is all about -- not government handouts. We should not blame others for not preparing better for disaster -- we are partially to blame for not being more outspoken. Of course, we cannot lead everyone by the hand and force them to do what they are not ready to do -- like that old story about leading a horse to water.
Ciao Piasano,
Pete
We do care and are really worried about you... Clearly demonstrated symptoms on Kitco: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8. Maybe more that we don't know about... Please seek help.
http://www.pendulum.org/related/borderline.htm
Fly, you mocking birds! Silver and platinum actually UP! ( $5 and a nickel, respectively )
Golf down : (
Looks like AG is not following the script, whatever it is. Bad timing for the Bank of England? I guess we need to ask ourselves -- why? England can't lower rates fast enough? And, how about Germany? Not a good time to expand the money supply in Europe when all the exchange rates are locked in for the Euro launch. But then -- it does not seem that inflation is an intrinsic problem in Europe right now. Potential devaluations are another matter, however -- hard when much is locked in. Does that mean that the EMU must buy and sell something other than EUROs to keep the exchange rate constant? How about gold? ( Heresy!! )
Or -- could be the Bank of England didn't have a change to sell their US dollars before the exchange rate plummeted.
Rothschilds, the Morgans, etc were not consulted on both sides of the Atlantic? Cracks developing in the international Reserve Bank facade? Signs of internal strife?
Perhaps there are not enough lifeboats for everyone.
Bought some HWP call options with funny money.
If this rally continues, the pattern seems to be that gold equities will start to rise as it peters out.
We could have a nice gold equities bottom fairly soon -- for those who have some cash left.
Why is it that I am afraid I will turn around and find that I am shadowed by a bigger wave than the one I am riding on -- and it is about to break?
I gather that RR is hanging in there because of his concerns about the economy and his support of the Democratic party -- not because of WJC. I don't think AG is so political in his outlook -- but I'll bet he'd like to step down before the market tanks.
Looking at the XAU chart, it would seem likely that one more
dip is likely for this correction to look "aesthetically" pleasing.
FWIW, A dip to 65 or a bit lower would give the correction a nice 1, 2, 3
appearance. Time wise the XAU should complete it's correction about the middle of next week, IMHO. A nice wave up should follow ( :^ ) )
Those more average type retirement account owners are still buying -- why invest your money in anything else than equities? They have been going up as long as many can remember!
Many of us at Kitco are getting more nimble -- learning from our trader friends. We are at least protecting our assets for the big time gold bull to come -- probably a few years from now. Should have plenty of more opportunities to learn how the equities markets work before then -- real time. We just have to be nimble enough to avoid the Pings.
NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE
I agree with you that the next wave down in the Dow will be wicked.
Assuming that we are in a bear market, and assuming that the recent dip was the 1st phase of the bear market, we are now setting up for the 2nd phase. If I am not mistaken, Dow Theory states that the 2nd phase down is usually vicious.
This rally may have to become a bit more convincing, IMO, before we enter the 2nd phase down. Perhaps 1 more sharp rally to give the "all clear" signal to the bulls.
guessing that organized crime interests have positioned themselves to appear as legitimate boullion dealers. Further I am presuming organized crime has long since discovered this as a money laundering scheme.
If just the drug cartels have a centralized organization we are talking about the largest money interest on the planet. I am further assuming that organized crime has become increasinging sophisticated in the ways of corporate culture and finance and now has a heavy appetite
for the acquisition of gold.
One of the reasons for my suspicions of the mafia is based on statements made by John Davidson in his monthly publication, The Strategic Investor where he claims Russia has long been corrupted by the influence of the mafia, and that Bill Clinton while he was still a student became privy to and enlisted in their ranks while on an extended
tour of Russia when he was in College.
It is further my speculation that it is the desire of organized crime to bring the world to a one world government, with a single bank and currency based on gold, and they want to be the primary holders of gold so they are accumulating at depressed prices.
It may be be that the mafia is not the party looking to be the dominant force in a one world government. But whomever else it may be
I think they are the world's wealthiest. ( I just happen to think that would be the mafia or organized crime ) .
Lastly and very impoertantly I believe the forces wishing to see
a one world government are planning to take advantage of Y2K chaos to establish first worldwide martial law and then their own world government. I believe in the potential that Y2K has been a planned event
just for the above stated purpose ( which is another reason I believe the mafia is the entity behind it because they are a generational or on-going interest ) .
I think WJC is a lackey for these forces and that his actions and the extent of coperation he has received from the FBI & IRS illustrate the extensiveness of people in position. I believe he knows he has the final out from impeachment by simply maintaining until 1/01/2000 , because soon after that martial law will be declared. That is why he had to win the presidency at all costs.
The implications of this assumed hypothesis to the markets are that the indexes will be maintained at levels sufficient to assure a strong dollar and a weakened POG as the accumulation of Gold is a primary
objective.
I am being quick with this and not breaking it down into smaller pieces too well. I've spoken about this to some of my students ( I teach
2 classes at a Vocational Tech. college ) and some of my christian fundamentalist came up with this 666 x 3 = 1998 & 7 years of peace,
( WJC 1993-2000 ) followed by 7 years of famine ( post Y2K chaos ) .
One more thing to add. Some have said Y2K will be a self fulfilling prophecy ( personally I think it will do its own number without pere-event hysteria necessary to help it ) but I also think the forces of one world government will see to it that we lose the power grid
wether the millenium bug does it or not as it is essential to the declaratrion of martial law.
For now I will leave out all the evidence of the plans laid and made for martial law.
BACKGROUND: - Anne Williamson, is a New York-based writer who recently authored a hard-hitting new book, "CONTAGION: How America Betrayed Russia," to be published soon by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Ms. Williamson has covered Russia since 1987 for a myriad of U.S. publications, ranging from the Wall Street Journal to the SPY magazine.
COLLAPSING GLOBAL EMPIRE OF FINANCE CAPITALISM
GOLDILOCKS ECONOMY
by Anne Williamson
NEW YORK - The world's financial elite, now milling about at the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, are unhappy players in a drama whose theme is a lost empire. Not an empire in the sense of ancient Rome, but rather the collapsing American empire of finance capitalism, whose front-line soldiers were equipped not with helmets and rifles, but with Brooks Brothers suits and US fiat dollars.
Though the expansion of NATO will insure a future abundance of overpriced toilet seats, the costs of maintaining the US military are today rivalled by the sums needed for the publicly-financed multibillion dollar bailouts of entire countries on the hook to US global banks and high-flying investors. But don't blame the banks or the investors, they're just team players. The bailouts are intended to preserve the bloated power and hubris of the U.S. federal government, particularly the executive branch.
When libertarians say that government produces nothing, they make a grave error. Government produces one thing in abundance - our money. Unsurprisingly, US paper fiat dollars have no intrinsic value and circulate only by faith and by edict. Consequently, the dollar in a baby boomer's pocket is worth but the penny that was in his grandfather's purse less than a century ago. But granddad's penny was one hundredth of a gold-backed dollar's value, while today's dollar is the product of a government-operated pyramid scheme. Once the state slipped the golden handcuffs of budgetary discipline through the Federal Reserve System, it gained the ability to create unlimited debt, thereby claiming for itself what before had been the purview of tyrants - the ability to debase the currency. It is the slow leaching of value from the US dollar, not the far lesser sums raised by direct taxation, which has enabled the political class to purchase votes for its re-election and to further degrade the citizenry with socialist schemes that penetrate every nook and cranny of American life.
Any pyramid scheme remains viable only so long as its base continues to expand and it is that fact which has driven US foreign policy for much of the past century. Since politicians and investment bankers both have an interest in promoting deficits and in forcing taxpayers to redeem government debt, they were quick to come to terms on the advantages of underwriting foreign debt along with new markets and natural resources from abroad. Taxpayer-subsidized globalism then is not a new phenomenon, but has only reached its most recent apogee under the guiding hand of the
overreaching Clinton Administration.
Once the easy money common to presidential election cycles began pumping into the economy in the spring of 1995, it wasn't long before asset inflation hit US corporate share valuations. Throughout 1995 and 1996, the money supply kept rising, and along with it mutual fund holder's paper wealth and Bill Clinton's public approval ratings. Attracted by the double-digit yields found in risky, unregulated environments abroad, the banks - given the election year liquidity the Fed wished to export - lent unwisely and to excess.
The moral hazard the 1995 $40 billion-bailout of Mexico unleashed ( the debt was refinanced, not repaid, with additional IMF lending and proceeds from eurobond sales in 1996 ) led to a tripling of international capital flows. Investors took greater and greater risks in the belief that the new paradigm promised taxpayer-provided redemption, if necessary. The consequence of all those dollars frolicking in exotic locales is a $141 billion bailout for Asia, more than $20 billion for Russia in 1998 alone, a possible $30 billion for Brazil and thereafter, most likely, Mexico again.
The Clinton administrations attempt to socialize the risk of private investment with public funds now threatens a global meltdown. Whatever cure is devised, it is sure to further indirectly the degradation of individual citizens independence and prosperity. It is one more irony of the post-cold war environment that ambitious American policy makers, who were so busy 'reforming' Russia in the most appallingly cavalier and self-serving fashion, failed to honour the lesson Russia has to teach, i.e. liberty and empire do not cohabit.
The 1930s were the last era in which the international political and financial elite sought advantage through control of the global economy. What economists call hot money raced from one nation to the next throughout that era, leaving a trail of competitive currency devaluation in its wake. Six decades ago, as nation after nation was humbled by and strangled with the manipulations of the financial world's insiders, history saw fit to serve up Adolph Hitler.
A world war and a score of years later, the Allies established the IMF as a prophylactic money bag to prevent destabilizing trade imbalances and therefore, they thought, a repetition of the preceding decade's nightmare. Yet over half a century later, the IMF, the World Bank and their similarly US-controlled spawn - the IFC, the six regional development banks and the EBRD - have become 800-pound gorillas of economic distortion and, over time, of pillage which unchecked will guarantee extensive international conflict and a broadly-based anti-Americanism.
The new paradigm economy concocted by the Harvard-connected Clinton Administration appointees in the US Treasury, was designed to extend the federal government's meddling hand world-wide through its control of the multilateral and bilateral public lenders, enabling government a free ride on the back of a restructured U.S. economy grown vigorous and ever more innovative on account of the benefits the Reagan era's low taxation, moderate inflation, reduced regulation and expanding world trade had delivered. The overall scheme worked as follows: Sell assistance programs on an alleged free market and "humanitarian" basis by awarding government grants to those academics who can be relied upon to supply the intellectual camouflage politicians and journalists then repeat ad nausea to a distracted public, move the IMF and the World Bank to target, induce target to raise taxes, fine tune target central banking operations, encourage borrowing and debt creation through the target's government and its national banks, allowing IMF lending to pay yields if necessary; induce target to privatize national property while building a flimsy, artificial "infrastructure" for an equities market good enough to attract high risk foreign investors. Once the target nation's government flounders, step back and watch speculators assert discipline through a run on the target's currency. The subsequent devaluation delivers, in turn, a flood of cheap imports to American manufacturers and producers.
The finishing touch on the swindle is to confiscate more money from G-7 citizens ( the lion's share from Americans ) to pay for what is said to be an "essential" IMF bailout; thereby allowing Uncle Sam's IMF minions to entrench themselves more deeply in the target's government. Taxes are raised, the population struggles beneath indebtedness, government funding demands and the inevitable domestic inflation a devaluation delivers.
Western neo-colonialists then bully the target over its rapidly compounding debt in order to extract yet more property. Once successful, the world's insiders then turn around and deliver cheap shares from privatization and initial public offerings into the maw of US mutual funds and portfolio investors. US taxpayers get hit coming ( foreign aid ) and going ( bailouts ) and innocent foreigners property is finagled away either from, or on account of, inattentive and corrupt leaderships. The big winners are the world's increasingly corrupt and cosy governing class, international bureaucracies and global banks.
Yet what America has wrought across much of the post-Cold War landscape is a moral, political and financial abomination based on fraud, theft and deceit. In Russia the results of the Clinton administration's policies are the perpetuation of the longest depression of the 20th century in what is increasingly an unpoliced deadly weapons dump, the biggest swindle of national property since Vladimir Lenin muscled the country early in the century and the discrediting of the ideas of free markets and democracy. In Asia, hundreds of millions too have been ruined, riots enliven Jakarta's street life while Japan continues to stew in its own inscrutable juices. Just offstage, Eastern Europe and Latin America wait to ascend the devaluation gallows.
But as the old saying has it, what goes around comes around. All those dollars the Fed printed to get Bill Clinton re-elected, and in return for Alan Greenspan's third appointment as central bank chief, are now returning to the United States in the form of manufactured goods and commodities with which U.S. producers cannot compete on price. Corporate profits will decline as a consequence, and share prices of all but premiere multinational corporations will follow suit. Alas, those Americans up to their necks in credit card debt will be the next class of debtors to be rolled, an event for which Congress has prepared by tightening bankruptcy procedures. Credit will dry up, government receipts will dwindle, the national debt will skyrocket and unemployment will increase. Eventually the government will inflate its way out of its accumulated debt.
And if the Year 2000 alarms regarding a potential world-wide computer meltdown are accurate, then the international public and private financiers decades-long experiment with paper fiat currencies may well come a cropper, leaving the world to ride a roller-coaster of misery. No wonder the bankers and the policy makers in Washington are so glum these days.
Letting smaller banks issue currency backed by whatever ( gold? ) would require a higher authority worldwide to enforce currency issues, since the market would be too widespread to react quickly on a single, small currency without causing wild fluctuations. This higher authority would have to be something like a world authority ( read govt ) .
The example given was about Scottish banks issuing currency in the British Isles is not feasible over the entire globe.
Central banks are here to stay, and we must live with what we get. Besides, that's what will eventually cause gold to skyrocket.
I enjoy your inputs, keep them coming.
The year 2000 arrives near a "solar maximum," that time in the 11-year sunspot cycle when there is a preponderance of solar activity -- solar flares, prominences, coronal holes, an intensification of the solar wind, and an increase in the number and size of sunspots. The peaks in the sunspot cycle have indeed proven to be times of accelerated Earth change, and intensified weather. The previous solar maximum around 1990 was memorialized by the vicious Loma Prieta Earthquake in San Francisco, devastating hurricanes Iniki on Kauai and Andrew in Florida, unprecedented flooding of the Mississippi River delta, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, among much other heightened activity. Eleven years earlier, the preceding solar maximum again coincided with the furious eruption of Mount Saint Helens, hurricane Ewa on Kauai, the most severe weather of the century in Northern California, the Midwest, and the Southern US, devastating storms throughout Europe, and a 400 percent increase in overall seismic activity on the planet.
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