Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:01 - ID#187109)
chicken mandude
The en will take a right beating.........I wouldn't touch that long with a hundred and twenty foot pole. It has made it's highs for this year. Uh huh. If your gonna go after calls it had better be to sell 'em.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION........MERELY AN OPINION............... lick my baseball wounds............. ( whimper ) ............ ( boo hoo ) ............

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:05 - ID#433172)
I can agree with the possiblity a situation exists already which rougly corresponds to what you desribe in your first two paragraphs. Food, drugs,products of all kinds are traded thru price-fixing. Professional fees are also priced to what the market will bear. Health insurance, both privated and public seem to be rigged, it goes on and on.

The guy who wins the game ( gold ) as you see it will feel pretty foolish sitting in middle of his gold bricks and coins watching to make sure all his guards are on station. Day after day after day, after all thge game is over....

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:07 - ID#284255)
I guess you mean for my controversial site?

Not the Y2k ar alternative site ( :- ) ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:08 - ID#219363)
Common Sense
1980 - 1000

1990 - 3000

1995 - 4000

1996 - 5000

1997 - 6500

1998 - 8000

Just a quick sanity check post for the folks who are still holding equities in the face of a world economic slowdown ( confirmed ) . Think about the last few years of your life, think back to 1995. Is anything really that different now than in 1995 ? What could have changed so much in the economy to push stock valuations to double what they were in 1995, in three little years. What could have changed so much since 1980 to push valuations to EIGHT TIMES their 1980 levels. All I've got to say about it is that if this market were to drop to 5000, 4000, who knows, it'll be "crystal clear" to everybody when it happens, and everybody in the world will claim to understand why it happened, and most would have lost tons of money because they didn't see it coming. Again, I'm not calling crash, but if you were to draw a straight line down to DOW 4500 on the chart from the end of today's rally point, you'd have a picture of every crash that has ever happened, almost exactly. This concludes our common sense injection for the day, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:10 - ID#411163)
SOmeone posted a note last night that the Feds have a notice out for lawyers with a backround in banking contract law. I think the post stated that this notice went out to all Gov Agencys but I am not sure. A book I read by the Comptroller of the Currency after the 1930's mess stated that one of the biggest problems back then was sorting out contracts and who should profit and who lost from the different financial contracts that the different baks held. The banks were ALL closed at the time so speed was very important. I thought last night that things have somehow changed in the last week or so and remembered that book. we may be getting a sniff of the begining of the end.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:16 - ID#284255)
crossbow (Win 95)

You could set up a file transfer between your PC and another one.
Transfer your files accross and then reformat your PC and reinstall Win95.

There would be other ways around your problem, and I'm only sugesting this as a last resort.

I have the same CD as you and it comes with a floppy disk with gives the original boot.

Perhaps you could find a friend who has the complete install version.

Good Luck

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:17 - ID#432130)
...Dig it!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:26 - ID#350145)
i read that if the stock mkt today reflected historical PE averages it would be 5500. i have no idea if that is true, but it sort of seems right.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:33 - ID#287193)
@sharefin..misc. unusual..
I am not quite sure, but as I mentioned before, I have and still am spending a lot of time at this site:
and I must say that this is a very comprehensive site. Although I am retired and have a 150 hours a month connection, I will never be able to visit all the links.
re: the posted URL:
( In the artikel about Voisey Bay there is a lot of hidden Gold )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:46 - ID#284255)
Here's a chart on the Up volume/down volume ratio.

Seems to have topped out.

Most of my momentum indicators are pulling right back now.
And the swing should be starting to top out over the next few days.

The next selling cycle should be most interesting. ^o-o^

I think the bears will be out with re-inforcements.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:47 - ID#290172)
Puzzle Solvers--re: Kairos...just a book? No, don't think so...

"In order to know a semblance of serenity during the days of our lives, we also need to discover Time's twin nature, which the ancient Greeks called chronos and kairos.

Chronos is clocks, deadlines, watches, calendars, agendas, planners, schedules, beepers. Chronos is time at her worst. Chronos keeps track. Chronos is a delusion of grandeur. Chronos is running the Marine Corps marathon in heels. In chronos we think only of ourselves. Chronos is the world's time.

Kairos is transcendence, infinity, reverence, joy, passion, love, the Sacred. Kairos is intimacy with the Real. Kairos is time at her best. Kairos lets go. In kairos we escape the dungeon of self. Kairos is a Schubert waltz in nineteenth-century Vienna with your soul mate. Kairos is Spirit's time.

We exist in chronos. We long for kairos. That's our duality. Chronos requires speed so that it won't be wasted. Kairos requires space so that it might be savored.

We do in chronos. In kairos we're allowed to be.

We think we've never known kairos, but we have: when making love, when meditating or praying, when lost in music's rapture or literature's reverie, when planting bulbs or pulling weeds, when watching over a sleeping child, when reading the Sunday comics in together in bed, when delighting in a sunset, when exulting in our passions. We know joy in kairos, glimpse beauty in kairos, remember what it means to be alive in kairos, reconnect with our Divinity in kairos.

So how do we exchange chronos for kairos?
By slowing down.
By concentrating on one thing at a time.
By going about whatever we are doing as if it were the only thing worth doing at the moment.
By pretending we have all the time in the world, so that our subconscious will kick in and make it so.
By making time.
By taking time.
It only takes a moment to cross over from chronos to kairos, but does take a moment.
All that kairos asks is our willingness to stop running long enough to hear the music of the spheres.
Today, be willing to join in the dance.
Now you're in kairos.
"Simple Abundance A Daybook of Comfort and Joy"
by Sarah Ban Breathnach

Goodnight all. {:- )

Monkee Person
(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:49 - ID#350199)
I wonder what Canadian outfit this is referring to?

VHeadline/VENews: Wednesday, October 21, 1998 -- Following up their leads on the spread of Cuntrera Mafia tentacles in Venezuela, Interpol-Venezuela has seized assets worth 15 billion bolivares ( $2.5 million ) , allegedly belonging to the Cuntrera-Caruana mafia family, laundered through a front company called "Centro Nacional de Fianzas" located in Caracas' Sabana Grande. Company executives, Exequiel Jaimes and Edward Jaimes have been arrested for allegedly setting up and directing the money-laundering operation three years ago.

Among the assets seized are 400,000 hectares ( 980,000 acres ) of land in Bolivar State, allegedly in the process of being sold to a Canadian gold and diamond mining company consortium, 6 apartments in La Guaira and Puerto La Cruz, 12 luxury cars, 2 yachts and several bank accounts.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:49 - ID#347457)
@Sharefin on embedded chips.
Hi there my Y2K friend;- ) The guy who was critiquing Mitch R's article knows his "stuff" - he presented one of the most intelligent point of views on the subject.

I am not embedded system person ( my focus is IS ) , however, I try to watch it as our clients need to deal with it. Absolutely right that most of the writing on embedded chips is garbage. I guess the reason is that you don't have too many people familiar with it, and e. chips look too mysterious. Well, they are embedded, and many times embedded in complex systems, it's difficult to take software out and scan the code, you mostly diagnose it as a black box, etc. It's in human nature - you are afraid of unknown.

Some other points that were not mentioned:

Building the system which uses "embedded chips", is an integration of components ( just like many electronic devices ) where each components performs a specific function. Each component design may evolve in time and after some years it may be difficult to find a replacement component which would fit into overall architecture without changing some architectural aspects of overall system and how this component interfaces with other functional components. It seems to me that error handling is also questionable ( in some cases ) . E.g., component returns an error due to some problem which may not be detrimental to overall system functionality, however, reminder of the system shuts down because it received the error code. I better stop. As I said, I am not an embedded system person, I just watch is from sidelines.

Yeah, elevators failing, car not starting, microwave ovens refusing to heat up your breakfast, etc. are mostly urban legends created by people who knows nothing about the problem. However, we sure have a problem with embedded systems!

Sorry for my rant.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 00:50 - ID#45173)
DOW rally
Sputter, sputter. Cough, cough...

The street ain't buying this "beating expectations" crap. They are looking and seeing that even though Intel did a little better than they said they would and a little better than last quarter, they are below the same quarter last year. Looking for strong earnings growth. None seen. Result: stock hammered.

Whither the DOW on Thu & Fri?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:09 - ID#190411)
Argentine CB sales @ all
I will follow this one as far as I can. I'm in the market for these coins, and I will keep you posted if this is a real gold sale.
Rather than a few of you saying that you are perhaps willing to buy "a few" of these coins, I am looking for a person/s to add increments of one thousand coins. The likelihood of a buy is remote, but you must be prepared to cover your order if they are willing to trade. Lurker 223 gave a way to protect your holdings via puts.
G'nite and the best to ya.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:10 - ID#247309)
is more a day trader based on trends up or down. One of his more lucid recent comments was that he was making trades while he was sleeping, which provoked a few caustic responses. As to gold, he has stated that no one should buy until he says so.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:11 - ID#284255)
And I thought you pointed it out because of the Clinton bit ( :- ) ) )

Thanks for the compliments - much appreciated.
I have been neglecting the master page, as I'm more focused on the Y2k thing.
So I have been adding hundreds of urls to those two pages.

I have plenty of links ( 1000+++ ) to add re gold and the markets.
But not enough time to focus on all.

I have been dumping urls into two other pages but as yet have not added links to these due to their messyness.

Soon I hope to get onto these gold and markets related links and tidy them up properly.

And also break my site up into more sectors - one day.

Then you'll have enough urls to look at for many years. ^o-o^

Cage Rattler
(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:17 - ID#33184)
Advanced technical analysis for Dec gold

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:20 - ID#284255)
From dear old Dad who knows much more than I.
He very much enjoyed your post.

The Precious Moment

Chronos, oldest of the Gods
Not yet grown hoary
With the vast weight of ages on his brow
With wise understanding
Abdicates his sovreignity
A short but sweet awhile
Grants Kairos
This most rare and precious moment


John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:34 - ID#24135)
.. my .. my ..
Reify ..
suggest impala plats or amplat that order.

Gianni .. fact that you have never visited Africa
let alone RSA ( while I have invested here since 1975
and lived here since 1988 ) fully qualifies you as an
expert. I think you know what I mean. Your opinions
and forecasts are unhampered by any troublesome facts
or information. I will be certain to give your views
the attemtion that I feel they deserve and I appreciate
your concern for my well being. To assist you in your
search for misinformation about the place I live I
refer you to efforts of Robnoel .. an ex Rhodesian ..
( see below )

Robnoel .. This is the poor bugger that lives in
Joburg with the Ridgeback guard dog. Ive heard of
this guy .. with a Ridgeback guarding the house he
hasnt got a hope .. I have a Ridgeback .. it took
her a few hours to recover from her last encounter
with an intruder .. in this case it was a house fly
in its death throes.
Stuff like this is dime a dozen .. thanks for your
contribution.. will send dime later.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:37 - ID#287193)
Thank you very much for your prompt and info reply.
By the way, I am quite generous with some of your links.
This one I give out a lot:
Since I am not in 'au', I have to hit the bed and bid all G.N. and good posting. ( I wonder if any of you were long hogs or bellies. )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:40 - ID#284255)
The comments were made by Harlan Smith.
I follow his threads on a Y2k forum which you may be interested in.

I would hazard a guess that you would be among your peers there.

The digest is the best format to keep email volume down.

Here's a site you might find interesting.

T'is an immense problem.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:41 - ID#350145)
great chart

John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:43 - ID#24135)
do I tell a lie ??
Cage Rattler
Re your TA submission .. I think the uptrend channel
that you posted have been violated .. or am I missing
sonething ??

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:43 - ID#350145)
@Cage Rattler re chart
that was a great chart, it really helped me out. thanks.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:46 - ID#340383)
I upped it...
I once read a story from the 1920's about a bank manager's memo to all the employees. "With the onset of winter weather, if you would each bring with you every day a generous log for the fireplace, then we will all be able to work in relative comfort."
To paraphrase an Earl Nightengale anecdote--- Mr. Fire, if you would do your work, and provide us with our requested heat and light, then, and only then will we feed you and extend your life.

If you are thinking that you will wait until after you've made "x" amount of money in the markets and *then* you will send Bart a bit of support, I suggest to you that you might reconsider.

The amount you send need not reflect your wealth quotient or your love of puffs, gulps or pickles. As a child, were you not delighted with a card with currency enclosed. Share some delight with Bart, today. "If you ha'en't got a penny, then a ha'pny will do." Send 20, 30, 50, or even
a single, along with a note of thanks. And you'll be supporting all of us
with your "warmth and light."

I mailed off a check to Bart, to cover my commitment to Erle, and then a bit more for good measure.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:47 - ID#284255)
Their links look good

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:50 - ID#411320)
Dow jones look out below
Looks like we are finally going to see the bottom of the dows sucker
rally tomorrow.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:54 - ID#24135)
The Dangers of Africa..
Part 1 .. Flies ..
a ) use of dogs ..

My Rigdeback Sophie says "never track a wounded house fly
into the bush .. that's when they are most dangerous"
Blind Ben has no fear. Can hear but cannot see.
Useless for flies.
Golden Retriever Elektra .. shows no interest in
retrieving flies.. I like that.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:57 - ID#252150)
Except for a few minor jiggles now & then, there's no mystery as to the
direction of POG:

"Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power"--Eliot Janeway.

The fact that it did'nt increase more while USD weakened is not very reassuring. No doubt in my mind that the CBs are manipulating.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 01:59 - ID#255151)
ChasAbar 01:46-- AMEN!

Well done, sir. Did the same earlier this week. Kitco is the best investment letter in the world. It's worth a few bucks.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:00 - ID#24135)
wait a minute ..
mole ..
you have gone orgasmic over cage rattlers
chart .. please enlighten me . What
is it telling you ??

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:09 - ID#284255)
Stolen from the web
Oh give us a mill
Or a chainsaw from Stihl
Throw in two hundred pint jars from Ball
A bushel of wheat
Would be quite a nice treat
And some Gamma seals, O2 and all

Home, home in the burbs
Our bunker for post Y2k
And may we not lack
For a fine Generac
On our TEOTWAWKI holiday!

Home, home in the burbs
We'd sure like a pump and a well.
May our goose soon saut
In a solar array
While a Baygen still brings us Art Bell.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:09 - ID#340383)
I cancelled the WSJ today...
I called to cancel my subscription to the Wall Street Journal today. One call to main number. Then one call to customer service, to cancel. Then "Oh, you want a refund? I have to transfer you to the refund department."
" OK, sir, you have 249.12 refund which will be mailed to you, and I am filling out the form, and what wa your reason for cancelling?"
" Well, I look upon a subscription ( was two years ) as an investment, and I found an investment that I like better."
"Oh, I see. You are subscribing to something different, and what would that be?"
"Well no, not exactly. I want to invest the 249.12 in canned goods, you know, like tuna and Dinty Moore's Beef Stew."
"Please sir, can you be more specific, as there is no place on the form for an answer like that."
"Well, you asked me in a reasonable way, and I told you the true answer. Surely there must be a place on the form, like, maybe a space for notes, where you can write in something?"
"No, sir, I'm afraid not. I'll just write "no reason given."
"Gee, that's not the same as saying that I wanted to invest instead in canned goods. I did give you the reason."
"Yes, sir, you did, ( giggles just a bit, while trying to maintain ) but that isn't one of the choices I have here, so 'no reason' will be good enough. Thank you for calling customer service."
Every word is true. It's tough to have impact, isn't it?
I wonder if there was a choice labeled "no needy, no indeedy?"

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:41 - ID#153110)
You posted a link on your site to a Cyclopoedia. It was in three parts. Text and two graphics. One graphics would not download for me.
Did anyone else reprot this and could you repost the links ?

John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:42 - ID#24135)
.. hold it ..
. Auric ..
Maybe Bart should pay US .. we do all the work ..
I understand RJ and Gunny have negotiated prize money
of 100 each for a rematch .. Im trying to get in a
prelim on the card against little ( true grit ) ty.
I know he's a patsy but his ear bite is always
dangerous ..
I got this "short arms and deep pockets" problem.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:53 - ID#31868)
EB,Namaste' quart plus and lets throw in a ya...tonight my Friend...
The World Series man...nobody there is a loser pal...Heart..cleats... gloating...NONE...I SALUTE each and who gave their all...TRUTH is...while some brag...nah...THE WORLD SERIES...

Yowser!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...I would greet each and every Champion with the same handshake...holy buckets....yup...uh..huh...but I guess thats me...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:54 - ID#153110)
@T1 What was the question ?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 02:57 - ID#45173)
News from the road: Y2K -- I've been quiet on this subject lately, looking for new info
4 hour flight tonight with an F500 IT project management consultant who's worked on Y2K projects for the past year. Says:

1 ) Businesses in low-margin industries ( e.g., retail ) and marginally profitable companies in mid- to high-margin industries ( e.g., second and third tier players in financial services ) will not be preprared for Y2K. They are already experiencing problems that they are fixing laboriously by hand as each problem comes up. These businesses cannot afford to remediate systems for Y2K and will fail. Even if funds and human resources became available to these companines tomorrow, they don't have time. IT managers at these companies plan to abandon ship toward the middle of next year, or will hang in there as long as they can pull in a pay check.
2 ) Government agencies, with the exception of the Social Security Admin, will experience widespread system failures. Military systems are especially vulnerable, because of limited expertise to fix Y2K bugs in applications written in specialized programming languages ( e.g., Ada ) and running on propietary operating systems.
3 ) Several utility companies and telecom companies he's worked with will not be ready. Two companies he's worked with have divested of nuclear power plants.
4 ) Y2K is the forcing-function in decisions on how to deal with redundant systems during mergers and acquisions, a specialty of his company. Elegant, specialized applications are often discarded in favor of more crude yet more Y2K-ready applications.
5 ) Good news: supply chain of perishable food will not be interrupted since these do not stay in the supply chain long anyway. Non-perishables will move far more slowly, with storage and distribution problems common, but not life-threatening. Not so much stuff on the shelves.
6 ) Put aside six mo. of cash. Start now.

He laughed at the idea of buying gold. But then, this guy is an optimist.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:02 - ID#339265)
USA GOLD ANALYSIS...and Farfel's elaboration....
USA GOLD provided the following info:

An announcement was made by the government of Argentina that it would be selling the last of its gold in the open market. Representing 1.54 million coins and about 350,000 ounces, the gold will be sold at some point in the future although no further details on the timing of the sale were provided. We still think the announced sale is related to the successful $250 million Argentine bond offering on Wall Street this week. When the sale is completed, Argentine will have no gold remaining in its Treasury after decades of hyperinflation, government deficits and currency problems -- the end of a long road. Argentina is straining to maintain a peg to the dollar that began in 1992. Argentina's consumer price index has increased four times over the period but there has been no devaluation of the peso against the dollar. Amounting to some $100 million at the current gold price and seemingly to occur over the next several months, the sale is unlikely to have any lasting effect on the market. It was something of a surprise that Argentina announced the sale before it occurred. Usually, gold sale announcements are made after the fact.

Farfel says:

Again, what we have here is an analogous scenario to the '97 announcement of a future referendum for Swiss gold sales to take place sometime in '99. As many of you no doubt recall, the Swiss announcement of a referendum to consider a sale of 50% of its gold reserves occurred around the time the DOW/NASDAQ markets experienced their Fall, '97 debacle. The announcement was timed for that particular time period in order to preclude a flight to safety into gold, instead encouraging a flight to safety into bonds.

The announcement, occcuring as it did almost TWO years in advance of the proposed referendum, made absolutely no sense whatsoever. Nobody wishing to optimize the price of a commodity sale would rationally think to announce such a large sale well in advance of its occurence. In doing so, the effect is to scare down the price, thereby precluding maximum optimization of the price.

Once again, with increasing global economic tumult ( now beginning to affect American markets, as per Alan Greenspan ) , an American economic partner ( Argentina ) has come forward and announced the FUTURE sale of the remainder of its gold cache. Once again, it makes absolutely no sense. Nobody in their right mind wishing to maximize the value of a future gold sale announces said sale well in advance, knowing full well it ( should ) drive down the price of the metal.

Argentina is most likely announcing this sale for one reason .. as an action occurring at the behest of the Wall Street investment houses that are shorting gold and wondering how in God's name they will be able to cover these shorts if gold soars to equilibrium levels reflecting extent supply-demand imbalances. In other words, it appears to be yet another last ditch effort to perpetuate the gold carry trade. The odds favor that the forementioned Wall Street houses are the same ones that facilitated the recent huge Argentinian bond offering.

It is an announced sale whose purpose is completely psychological...scare all current and potential gold investors into believing that CB gold sales are lurking around every corner...convince them that Bonds offer the ONLY potential safety net in a world economic meltdown.

Yet, all evidence suggests that free world CB's are in turmoil today, attempting to design urgent solutions to the global economic tumult precipitated by the defective, no longer viable global floating currency system in existence today. Those solutions can only incorporate the creation of a new currency standard...and when one thinks of a standard, then one must think GOLD.

When will gold purchasers stop fretting about imaginary gold sales? When will they let out one huge, loud yawn the next time a CB discusses its "proposed" gold sale? Certainly, progress is occurring since the Argentinian disclosure had relatively little effect percentage wise on the POG. It is this very progress...this relatively muted reaction to the proposed gold sale that once again establishes the immutable reality of today's new and increasinly vibrant Gold Bull.



(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:02 - ID#255151)
John Disney

You may be onto something re Bart paying us. Confucius put it best when he said, "Stand around with your hands in your pockets, you'll feel silly. If those pockets have holes in them, you'll feel nuts." Go Gold!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:19 - ID#93199)
Long term Fidelity Select Gold trends
Fidelity Select Gold ( FSAGX )
The below Chart depicts the collision of two long term trends.
The longer term trend should hold. ( ie ) this could be the bottom.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:23 - ID#284255)
Space dust calculations - stolen, not mine - I do nothing original(:-)))

Taking 5 meteors per second as the average, and assuming the shower
lasts 5 hours we get 300 per minute, 18,000 per hour or 90,000
meteors total in excess of the normal background. The earth has a
diameter of about 8000 miles, ( atmosphere and all ) so has a circular
area to the storm of about ( 4000 *4000 ) *3.14 which gives about 5
million square miles as the size of the circular target we are
shooting at. So a given square mile has a chance of 90000/5000000 or
0.018 of being hit by a visible meteor. Assuming that meteors too
small to make a visible flash outnumber the visible ones by 100,000
to one says a square mile would expect to get hit about 1800 times.
Most satellites are not all that big - about 6ft by 4ft is OK for an
average - or 24 square feet. A square mile is 5280*5280 square feet
or 27,900,000 sqft. So there are about 1,150,000 satellite sized
squares in a square mile. That gives us a chance of about 640 to one
of a satellite getting - odds go up for bigger satellites - down for
smaller ones. So we might get one or two knocked out - or we might
not get any knocked out.

The book came from here

You can download the book from here

I had to shift them - ran out of room.

Slowly the word is getting out amongst the aware.
Like with many things we at Kitco are blessed with prescience.

By this time next year the naysayers will be shaking their heads.
Wondering why they did not act on the early warnings.

I, for one, would have dropped the subject long ago,
If, after the research I had done,
I had found that the prospects of chaos were nought.

To my minds eye
There has been an awareness awakening this last month.
The rolling ball is gathering speed.

All we need is a major example of Y2k impact
And the herd will start moving at a faster rate.
Already I am seeing a sense of 'quickening' amongst the aware.

Take care.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:41 - ID#413109)
Check it out 4 yourselves
IMHO this should lead the way up for the PMs.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:52 - ID#255151)
Yogi Berra Quotes

For your enjoyment. Time for bed now. As Yogi
would say, "It gets late early around here."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:52 - ID#284255)
The End of Certainty
Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature
---by Ilya Prigogine, Nobel Laureate

Storage life of dry goods.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 03:54 - ID#284255)
Man and the Biosphere : Toward a Coevolutionary Political Economy

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:00 - ID#284255)
Y2k Bank Survey
USDA RUS: No Loans Unless Y2k Ready
Wisconsin Guard Ready to Act

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:01 - ID#153110)
Got it. Thanks.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:01 - ID#258195)
Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Weds 21 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate--0.67---------------1.48-------------1.44-----------------1.78
( Change ) ---- ( + 0.14 ) -------- ( + 0.16 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( + 0.01 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----4.30--------------3.50--------------2.60-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.92--------------1.72--------------2.34-----------------2.29
( Change ) ------- ( + 0.10 ) -------- ( + 0.20 ) ------- ( + 0.20 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:03 - ID#258195)
moa @ 14:21 and larryn @ 19:26 yesterday re Central Bank Godfathers of Easy Money
moa and larryn - Thank you for your thoughtful responses to my 13:34. The subject raised by Prof George Selgin was his personal view of an extremely profound, global subject. As he pointed out, even Bagehot found over a century ago that he was fighting a losing battle when it comes to suggesting Central Banks might have something wrong with them.
Seglin mentioned the Genoa conference on the gold standard in 1922. A key British advisor at that conference was, of course the economist JM Keynes. Three years earlier he had written these words in his book which I believe was titled "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" :-
"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose"
He was an example of a man with a perverted character in a position of great influence who was able to pursuade the general mass of the people that he knew best, and could be trusted. Does that description remind you of anyone today................?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:06 - ID#284255)
Body Count Mounts Around Bill Clinton; Arkansas Most at Risk

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:06 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' gulps and puffs...Your response" was you think you know."..below my?
...English is such a vague word means ONE thing and one thing ONLY...afterall...does an American speak English?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:11 - ID#284255)

Me, Well I don't live there. ^o-o^

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:14 - ID#284255)
Who - who - who???
Still trying to find a way to discuss the Starr report with your preschooler?

The Bubba of Scuz
And the Bimbo of Loo
were sharing a pizza
with nothing to do.

They sat and they talked
Although little was said.
So they dabbled in
bumblefunumpus instead.
( which cannot be explained
and is never polite )
Whether done in the daylight
or darkness of night.

But the Bubba of Scuz
was a Loyalty Scout
which meant that with Bimbos,
funumping was out.

The Loyalty Scouts
( an unusual breed )
thought that telling the truth
was the best of good deeds.

If ever you slipped
into trouble so deep
that you thought that a lie
was the best way to keep

your brains in your head
and your seat in your pants,
a Loyalty Scout would say
"don't take the chance!"

A Splonger named Ken
had been watching the glade
where the Bubba and Bimbo
funumped in the shade

"At last" said the Splong
( a responsible guy )
I now have what I need
to entice him to lie.

The Bubba of Scuz
was then pressured to tell
of the things he had done
in the glade by the dell.

"Did you yert with palookas?
Or miff some goopats?
I heard that you fleegered
a blooper with gnats!"

"I have done no such thing"
said the Bubba of Scuz
"those things aren't the things
that a Scuz Bubba does."

"But what about Bimbos?"
Inquired the Splong.
"Funumping with Bimbos
is equally wrong!"

"I never funumped
with the Bimbo of Loo."
"If you say that I did,
what you say isn't true."

Except that it was,
bringing Bubba up short
when the Splonger named Ken
made his final report.

So take this advice
when you're feeling ashamed.
Stick to the truth
or you'll wind up defamed.

The Loyalty Scouts
will muster you out
your good friends will wonder
what you are about

And history's scribes,
remembering you
will skip all the good
you endeavored to do.

Like the Bubba of Scuz
who, 'til history's end
will be linked to his Bimbo
and the Splonger named Ken.

Copyright 1998, Minnesota Public Radio.

Free Kiwi
(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:17 - ID#156396)
Dow Jones To date
Atatched plot illustrates Dow Jone Weeklies. The 1929 & 1987 crash peaks have been moved forward to correspond to the July 1998 peak. As we can see the Dow "should have" crashed by now. Clearly, the 9% or so current correction from its high in July does not qualify as a crash. What interests me is that if the area above the sustainable growth curves for each period represents the overvaluation of the Dow ( and to which the market "corrects to" ) then todays market is grossly overvalued in comparison to 1929 and 1987.

In fact, on this plot, 1987 was just a "blip" on the advancing wave pattern. This is why I believe the Dow is taking longer to crash. There is so much momentum built up that it is rather like trying to stop a oil tanker in a few hundred meters - it can't be done. However, when it does go it will go - watch out below.

The green line on the top of the plot is a variance measure ( oscillator ) - this is awsomely high - much higher than either 1929 and 1987. This reflects the extraordinary movements in the market over the last 12 months. It is a moving average so it hasn't incorporated the last weeks rise in the Dow which would take it through the roof.

Of course I can't predict when and if it will crash but the message is clear - the Dow is grossly overvalued compared to historical norms, the variation in its movements over the last 12 months have never before been experienced. Like an earthquake these are all signs of weakness. I will be surprised if it takes off on another bull run based on fundamentals. Hope this has been useful to everybody at Kitco.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:17 - ID#153110)
@Dabchick @T1
A chief evil of Central Banking is the common interest established between the Bank and the State. Central Banking made total war, the enlistment of all of the governed resources to war, possible.

@T1 English and American English have innumerable words which have the same spelling and sound, but multiple meanings. Jig is a ready example.

In addition, legal English and legal American English share many words with English and American English.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:50 - ID#26793)
Barrick news

(Thu Oct 22 1998 04:55 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' the final gulp to ya...My fine Friend...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm like...Pardon me but...WHAT! I owe you money for the common anathema wherein this dirtbag from Mena...says he does the work of the people...

Well...Hmmmmmmmmmm...Little Jeffy Clinton is common...a loafer...a liar...a traitor...I don't care what he does with family cause he ain't got one...and he and his non family is, does, nothing to do with GOOD... Jeffy Clinton is nothing more than the dick the Russians and all the rest of these fat no good welfare bastards are trying to stick right in our noses...I've known dog piss that was stronger...

One more time eh...

You have a good evening and Sweet Dreams to you ALL and to the TEAMS... ...WORLD SERIES...THANKS FOR THE SHOW...KIDS AROUND THE WORLD DREAM OF BEING YOU SOME...DAY...great tears...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:03 - ID#26793)
Merrill Lynch upset at the turn of events in resolving the 1995 Mexican banks bailout

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:19 - ID#26793)
Canadian prices are falling sharply.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:23 - ID#25490)
How come I got a squidged up message box since I reinstalled the whole shebang?

pardon my obtrusenes. My "golden lance" was merely an email I thought I sent you a couple of days ago.

if this message is all crunched up like yours usually is, I used to get a message box twice the width.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:24 - ID#26793)
This company claims to have a software program to replace the role of gold in world finance

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:38 - ID#25490)
got a long box again.

I'd say that Real Monetization has, well, a difficult row to hoe. However, if, like me, you like palindromic numbers, the 1881 pages of patent application is a start. ( Who could read let alone write that much crp? )

If you like numerology ( it bores the pants off me ) ...if you add the first two and last two numbers in 1881 together you get 99. Next Subtract the month ( Oct ) 10 from the date in the month that the article was published, 19, you get 9. Add this 9 to the 99 you get 999. Turn that number upside down, why, it's 666.

One can do anything with numbers, eh?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:46 - ID#255151)
Donald 05:03

That article says $60 billion in bad bank
loans from the Fobaproa Fund. What is that? Is Fobaproa a Mexican Hedge Fund? What do you bet that $60 billion figure is just a guess, and it may be much higher. Wondering also if the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are doing anything about this.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 05:56 - ID#252391)
Reify what is bullish
about the chart you offered of the mid american dec silver contract.. Heaven for bid we don't take out $4.80 as it would appear to me $4.50 would be next.

PraY tell what do you see positive in this chart???

(Thu Oct 22 1998 06:13 - ID#252391)
Rich wrote below

" ( Dow jones look out below ) Looks like we are finally going to see the bottom of the dows sucker rally tomorrow."

Earlier we had the chart of December Silver ( MID AM at that ) which told me nothing and here RICH seems to have his up confused with his downs and bottoms with tops.

I'll agree with an earlier poster that KITCO ranks as one of the best newsletters on the net but that doesn't mean I don't leave confused.

MY bet: silver breaks $4.75 this week and the DOW 8800.

Remeber DOW 10,000 before gold $315.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 06:32 - ID#413109)
Bullish on silver and gold ME?
Jim's I didn't say I was bullish I just said silver would lead the way.
But must confess, I look at more than daily charts, and you did come
to the correct conclusion, yes I am bullish on the PMs.

J.Disney, much obliged sir!To be read with a drawl.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 06:33 - ID#43349)
Globex looking uppish, bonds downish, dollar up, Pm's down.

Today looks like another kairos moment for silver, either it opens a new high or down it goes.

Gold hanging on by it's fingernails.

Still moving through the eye. DOW will NOT be happy when we reach the other wall.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:01 - ID#288466)

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:07 - ID#43349)
Hitting the wall
As the bubble grew, there came a time when storm clouds began to gather. Asia started to have problems, hot money started flowing, and we had a good length of time to see the market slow and begin to decline.

Eventually the intensity of financail winds grew, there was turbulence and buffeting, LTCM trouble, the Fed stepping in, and then almost magically we were in the eye.


Bear market rally.

The "bump" in the middle of a double bottom.

Though severely wounded, hedge funds and banking hedge operations for the most part have survived and have set in to "make it all back".

When we hit the other wall, there will be no warning. It will come on quick and strong.

Sometime in the next week or two or three, there will be bad news hit the press. Major bank failure or US declares war on Canada or Hillary was so complacent because she too had a boy friend. Whatever.

Then comes the real storm. It will slowly fasw away and the new bull market will begin. Probably after '99.

Red sky at night, sailor's delight.
Red sky at morning, sailor take warning.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:07 - ID#288466)
Market projections update

User: hixson

Password: thmetal

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:10 - ID#252391)
I get it now, Silver will lead the way - yes I concur but I think it will lead it down. Resessionary fears are mounting by the day and the evidence is starting to come in. These hanging on the edge patterns have been resolved bearishly in the last six months. Gold's position reminds me of silver's back up there at $6 per oz.

I just see us four months down the line with negative GDP rates the norm, in a climate ripe with bearish suggestions for future industrial metal demand. And a price for silver .....well below $4.85.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:14 - ID#288466)
Princeton Economics Commentary
Gold: Possible crash mode forming...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:16 - ID#288466)
Princeton Link

Click on Global Market View, then #4.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:18 - ID#432148)
Donald, asset backing for currencies in program to wit
Real Monetization ( TM ) will be carried out by Real Monetary Software ( TM ) , which is currently
under development. The Company believes that the market for the software will be universal, since
the logical result of the Real Monetization ( TM ) process will lead to the issuance of asset-backed
currency equivalents. ``The demand for currencies, that are self-adjusting for inflation and deflation,
should be substantial,'' says Tripp, ``since they will help to resolve the disrupting factors that are
currently affecting our global economy.'' A book being written on Real Monetary Theory will
explain these matters in more depth.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:22 - ID#39857)
taking a deep breath.......ready..........?

1901 Boxer protocol exacted an indemnity of $333,900,00 WHICH
at $15/ounce to $300/ounce comes to the miraculous figure of....
.............$6,678,000,000..............ooooooo.............. ahhhhhhhhhh
ref, Fairbank. John K. yes........"during a period of great foreign
provocation" ........................muesli and vanila slices ......oh yehhh.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:25 - ID#39857)
taking a deep breath.......another!


(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:31 - ID#29048)
spot gold down to 293.35 and dropping.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:41 - ID#284255)
Y2k - - - Must read
This report is from CSIS.

I would recommend that all who value their assets, lives and families to read what is now being discussed on a global scale.

This is one of the best examples of Gov'ts coming out of denial.
It is a long report.

And this one you will have to extract yourselves.
The above one took me a hour to extract and format.
And this one is 3 times as long.

Sorry but you'll need Adobe Acrobat to view this one.
It is an amazing document to read.

The Year 2000 Problem: Impacts and Actions

Awareness is definately on the rise.
In the last few weeks I have noticed a large increase in the number of Y2k project managers frequenting the Y2k forums.

I would guess they are coming out of denial and seeking like minded indivuals with whom to discuss their problems with.

Presumably they can't talk about the subject at home and are seeking the opinions of others away from the office.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:45 - ID#224363)
POG isn't going anywhere for a while
I think the trend for the POG is still pretty much directionless which to me means that it will move between $287 and $300 until we get our next big 'surprise'. When that will occur is anyones guess.

The asians may be buying and the general public may be buying coins but the 'real money' isn't buying yet. And they probably won't be buying until there is hard confirmation of serious problems in the financial/political world.

If this does not occur in the next 3 months, look for additional buying opportunities in gold shares as tax selling kicks.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:46 - ID#29048)
Spot down to 292.40
Is this a short, sharp spike down or are we going back into hibernation?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:49 - ID#26793)
I think that the Fobaproa Fund is a holding company that the Mexican government set up to hold the assets of the failed banks until they can be resold. Something similar to the RFC that we used here in the states for the savings & loan bailout.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:51 - ID#20768)
Global gold production 'economic' at current price levels - Godsell

London - Global gold production is largely profitable at current price levels and further cutbacks are unlikely, says Anglogold CEO Bobby Godsell.

"At $280/290 an ounce, the bulk of present production seems economic," Godsell said on Tuesday at the annual Goldman Sachs Commodity Conference.

If gold moved down to a $250/280 band there would be further cutbacks, while if the market runs up to a $320/350 range, production will be maintained at current levels, he said.


Profitable for whom?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:54 - ID#26793)
South African gold news

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:57 - ID#35571)
Which means gold dives

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:59 - ID#25196)
Kitco Gold
Can anyone tell me how much is gold down as the Kitco is down only 10 cents-its been that way all day

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:59 - ID#259282)
We all could make decent returns if we just buy at 290 and sell at 300.
Now I just have to convince someone to lend me 90 times my equity. Maybe I could talk to the people that LTCM talk to.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 07:59 - ID#35571)
Which also isn't good

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:01 - ID#26793)
IMF says world economy is doing just fine.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:01 - ID#45173)
In a bind
Corporations "downsized" in the 1990s to increase earnings to please Wall Street. Now that business is off, they cannot lay workers off without hurting the top line... they won't have enough people to run the business.

The fruits of excess.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:02 - ID#224363)
@Donald - Re: Cdn Inflation Rates
``I think most people were expecting food and energy prices to be weak and they turned out to be significantly weaker than expected. Then the core rate came in I think just a little bit weaker than people expected,'' said John Lester, senior economist at brokerage CIBC Wood Gundy.
End snip...

In my local market I watched gas prices at the pump move from $0.54 CDN per litre to $0.42 CDN per litre througout the month of September.

For those of you in the States this is equivalent to a $0.26-$0.30US move in the price of gas per gallon.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:04 - ID#221137)
wert, RE your HOTCOPPER question
The hotcopper forum is still alive, but has changed format and its at a new URL. Its a bit hard to explain how to get to it. You could find it by following the right links from

Going to should get you started. You have to register on the new forum.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:05 - ID#35571)
Across the seas
Speaking generally about Europe's markets Thursday, Justin Urqhart Stewart, head of business strategy at Barclay Stockbrokers in London, said: "The market is slightly calmer, but we can't tell if we're in a calm period or in the eye of the storm." He said there markets are eager to seize on the idea that the building blocks for a recovery are in the making -- but can't quite get embrace that notion yet. "The basic foundations for a recovery are being put in place, but the market still doesn't believe it," Stewart said.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:08 - ID#242325)
December gold off $3.00 a few minutes ago.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:09 - ID#25192)
Try this address for gold price quotes when Kitco isn't updating properly

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:14 - ID#35571)
Metals in asia

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:14 - ID#25192)
Aussie - the address again

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:33 - ID#348169)
@PMF and Gasoline
What part of the country are you in? Alta. or Sask.? We are still at $.51-52 in T.O Being ripped off as Usual. Montreal invariably has even higher than us. Right Bart?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:37 - ID#203137)
gold tanking
somebody's dumping gold. shoot him!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:39 - ID#35571)
Bull spoor

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:46 - ID#35571)
Globex mixed, bonds mixed but downish, dollar definitely up, PM's definitely down, oil mixed but downish

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:54 - ID#37463)
I am loosing my donkey in the gold market.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 08:59 - ID#376309)
To: contrarian
I AGREE! Anyone who is long gold don't sell!
We should be at $310 if not $410 by the close today.
Hang in there and don't use stops no matter how low we go.

The nerve of thous Longs tring to bail out.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:03 - ID#203137)
Spot has been as low as 291.75. I think this is where there should be some support. Why do you think it will finish at 310 today?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:06 - ID#423380)
@GOLD---Drop Baby Drop!!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:06 - ID#35571)
We will check back with you at the end of the day to thank you for all the money we made by following your good advice.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:06 - ID#421269)
Gold Price increase

No demand + over production = lower price

solution # 1 - increase demand- not likely any time soon as a declining dollar and weak stock market hardly made a ripple.

solution # 2 - cut production - not likely as most mines are either profitable

are borderline at this price level.

Answer - gold is going down till production is reduced or till the very foundation of the worlds financial system is shaken.

$200 dollar gold is looking a lot closer to me this morning ! Never in my dreams did I think that possible.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:07 - ID#317193) I'll switch to being long ;-))))

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:08 - ID#35571)
That should be:

No demand + over production + price manipulation

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:09 - ID#224363)
Ottawa...Prices are back up now to $0.52 but they sat around $0.42/$0.42 for 2-3 weeks in Sept. Had to keep reminding myself to fill the tank up.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:11 - ID#350195)
RE Bull Spoor
That looks like a recommendation of hyperinflation to me: DOW 400,000 in 2047 ( or something like that )
Would that mean that POG would be $30,000/oz and a loaf of bread costs $100?

How's the XAU gonna take this lump ( break to 67? ) Waiting to go long...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:16 - ID#333126)
gold going lower? good!
down boy.

down so i can buy heaps of dec 99 calls on the cheap.

just let me know before you go up again, thanks.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:17 - ID#287279)
from Australia

by Graham Strachan

BRISBANE, Australia - Readers familiar with the motion picture "The Sting" may recall that the cornerstone of the successful 'Sting' ( fraud ) was that the victim had to be unaware at the end of it all that they had been defrauded. Even if told, they would refuse to believe they had been dudded ( conned ) .
In the case of "The Sting" - the movie, the philosophy of the leading
characters was that fools and their money are easily parted. The people they were defrauding had money to lose in the first place. Such is not the case of the greatest fraud of all time presently taking place in the global economy, and the 'fools' being parted from their money are the simple, basically decent, trusting, ordinary people of the world, who are obliged to work for a living.
The Sting goes something like this. Over a trillion dollars zooms around the world each day in the global markets, buying and selling currencies, corporate shares and government bonds, 'futures' ( options to buy things which might come into being in the future ) , and 'derivatives', instruments based on some underlying financial asset, however remotely. Some of the money ( not much ) actually gets to be invested in productive enterprise, but most of it is used by speculators playing a huge global gambling game. The media, now staffed by capitalist groupies paid to glorify these people, fawn over the speculators and
call them 'players'. Life is but a game, tra-la. Greed is good.

The sting is made possible because most of the 'money' the 'players' gamble with doesn't actually exist. It's pretend money, credit money extended to them by various banks, and ultimately the international bankers. The banks are able to do this... invent imaginary money out of thin air and charge interest on it.... because of the 'fractional reserve banking system' whereby if a bank has
around $6 of depositors funds in its vault it is allowed by law to create $100 of imaginary money and lend it out at interest. Banks do not, as Prime Minister Howard apparently thinks ( or says he does ) , lend depositors funds. They don't lend money at all. They extend credit, which is new 'money' created as interest
bearing debt, a practice called 'usury' and banned by the Church during the Middle Ages, but allowed back in by Henry VIII. But back to the Sting.

At this point the media enter the picture, media owned and controlled by men who are themselves ultimately beholden to the international bankers. An area is targeted, like Asia. The world media then talk the area up. They run stories about 'Asian Tiger Economies', and how the 'future lies in Asia', fortunes are there for the asking. The global speculators are encouraged to invest their hot money there by the billions, in all sorts of ventures regardless of the risk, and in assets regardless of how dubious their value. At the same time the local
banks in the target country are encouraged to borrow from the international bankers and make reckless loans, hardly bothering to assess the viability of ventures or requiring adequate collateral. The myth is promoted that it's almost impossible to fail in the 'emerging economies'.
Then a crisis is precipitated: the spill of an ageing President, for example, something to spook the speculators and induce them to dump the local currency and pull out. If the worst comes to the worst a deliberate 'run' on the currency can be arranged using the massive global hedge funds ( as in the Thai collapse ) . What happens then is a massive flight of capital from the target
country, and a devaluation of its currency in the floating money market,
because nobody wants to be caught short with it. As the currency value
plummets, the local banks cannot service their overseas loans which are
tied to the value of the US dollar. They call in their own loans but by this time the country's economy is so depressed by the flight of capital that the local borrowers can't meet their obligations. What is euphemistically called in banking circles the 'non-performing loan' becomes a local plague. The local banks then look like collapsing.

At this point the debt collector for the international money-lenders, the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , is sent in to 'review' the situation,
and to recommend a 'bailout package'. The pretext is 'to prop up the country's economy', but what that really means is bail out the country's private banks.
And where does the money for the 'bailout' come from? This is where
politicians in quasi-democratic governments like Australia's join the Sting team. In munificent mode they 'pledge' billions of dollars of their taxpayers' hard-earned money... real money, backed up by the IMF to bail out the profligate bankers in the target country. Losses by private bankers, who deserve to be driven out of business by the 'free market' they claim to espouse, are made good by hard-working taxpayers in the developed ( G-7 )
countries. So much for the 'free market'. It's all part of the scam.

The governments who pledge their taxpayers' money don't actually deliver it in cash. They borrow it from the international bankers at interest, thereby increasing the national debt, ultimately repayable by taxpayers or through the sale of national assets like Telstra and the Snowy Mountains Scheme.
In the meantime there's the interest. The interest on Australia's debt now costs the country's taxpayers around $1.4 million an HOUR. The essence of the fraud is that imaginary money borrowed from the international bankers and 'lost' by irresponsible local bankers, is 'bailed out' with real money and assets stolen
from the world's taxpayers by their own governments. It is fraud and
slavery on a massive scale, a scale so massive nobody would ever believe it was deliberate.

It began when the value of money was severed from the gold standard by America in 1968. This enabled almost unlimited credit 'money' to be created. The precedent for using public funds to make up private bank losses was established when the Clinton administration bailed out the Mexican 'economy' ( i.e banks ) with $40 billion US taypayers' dollars in 1995. That removed the last source of discipline from the global markets....the possibility of making a loss. As Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr., president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama wrote recently, it sent a message that bad debts could be protected from exposure to market forces if the gamblers involved had good government connections. Then they stand the chance of having their bills paid
with other people's money.

The Mexican Sting was followed by a $141 billion bailout in Asia, to which Australian taxpayers were made to contribute around $5 billion. Then Russia had to be bailed out to the tune of $20 billion in 1998 alone. Now there is a possible $30 billion required for Brazil, and thereafter who knows? Japan, China, and probably Mexico again. To make sure the victims don't wake up that they are being defrauded, the sole purpose now of the Western media is to keep
the people ignorant, to prevent them understanding anything of any
consequence, to keep them in the dark or distracted with sex, sport, and the private lives of people like Princess Diana. Economics is portrayed as being beyond human comprehension, even of the best brains in the world. It's 'just happening'Like the weather.

No it's not. This is fraud on a global scale: the milking of captive taxpayers by scoundrels with the help of paid liars in government and the media. Watch now for calls for a World Central Bank, which will create what American writer Anne Williamson, writing for the Internet news site WorldNetDaily, has described as "one global money monopoly that will be a final claim on [taxpayers'] national sovereignty and their wallets". She describes the world's
taxpayers as 'the world's unwitting bottomless purse'. The object is "to
socialise the risks of reckless banking amongst the [world's] population,
while allowing the profits to be retained by, and then shared out amongst the political and economic elite".
As Doctor Goebbels said, if you're going to tell a lie, tell a big one, then nobody will believe it's a lie. The same goes for fraud. Do it on a global scale, and who would ever believe it was a Sting?
Graham Strachan's e-mail is:; some of his articles can also be found at: or at

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:18 - ID#288466)
Market Cycles - Gold

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:19 - ID#240230)
Thnks; still having problems with the registration so I'll "guest" for awhile...regards

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:20 - ID#300202)
Franklin Mints
Tks Glenn-will go see if I can find my initial purchases hidden away somewhere/dust them off & look at em with renewed interest. Go Franklin

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:30 - ID#376309)
I figured that since I have been one of the biggest bears here that people would realize that I was just joking. Maybe it wasn't funny looking back.
The last post I made was a goof. Please never trade with out a stop and I thought it was obvious I was kidding that we would be at $310 today.

My real opinion is $250 before $350!

Richard Burke
(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:31 - ID#411318)
Glenn - With gold down $3.00 this AM ( with resistance around 292-293 ) , why do you see such a sharp rise as you have stated?

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:33 - ID#270253)
Princeton (M Armstrong)
I checked the Princeton site on Friday when gold was at $300. They were bullish ( green ) on daily, weekly and monthly. Has anyone checked out the track record for this stuff??? Now they are in crash mode.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:33 - ID#317193)
glenn...think most of us knew that...
winks...;- )


Richard Burke
(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:33 - ID#411318)
Glenn: Got your answer as I posted my last. It sure sounded funny for you.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:36 - ID#288466)
XAU opoens at 70.98

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:42 - ID#35571)
High volatility in bond market

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:45 - ID#35571)
@Mike Stewart
They have their own agenda and lately they play the markets. When they are short they talk the market down. When they are ready to cover and go long they talk the market up.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:46 - ID#35571)
Don't scare us like that.

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:46 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ Checking tickets
I was wondering if you were still aboard the bond train...that opening was something to "toot" about!

Just a thought... Chicken man...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:49 - ID#287114)
The Poll
A few days ago Mike Sheller took a Kitco poll and asked if the bottom was in for gold,,,,Respose was yes.
I have been trying to find it with no result for a re-read.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:52 - ID#421269)
@ Glenn
Murrstein, was getting his lawyer on the phone.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 09:54 - ID#203243)
To: Glenn
Gee thanks mate! I just bet my house, wife and kids, on your comment about going to 310 today. Now you say 250 first. Ok mate. I'll send you the contract notes.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:01 - ID#432395)
@"Contrarian"---What's the going rate for a wife and kid's these days??

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:06 - ID#344326)
Gold tanking?
There must be some major trouble coming down the pike with equities.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:09 - ID#413109)
So many wise people @ KITCO Today
or are they smart @sses?
Glenn, a pro kids, and all jump on the bandwagon,
should be an interesting day.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:10 - ID#410194)
Morning Gold analysis from "Hightower Report":

"Critical support at 295 failed, Japanses dealers think 292 is next objective. A slightly higher range in gold Wednesday might not prohibit losses today given the Yen's early decline. The Yen has fallen almost 400 points since last Friday's highs. While the Yen rally didn't really create direct gold gains the contrary situation is not helpful to gold. A trade below 296.2 might be the point to invoke stop loss selling. The two biggest days volume in the last month, 76,459 and 81,885 were both undertaken as gold moved up through 299 and 300 so those longs might be feeling 5 to 8 dollars pressure on the opening. We see 290.4 December trade on this cycle down."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:11 - ID#203243)
Well depends on the wife and kids. But in terms of fiat currency it's got be in the trillions. In terms of Pms some sort of ratio to wait - depending on the wife and kids that is. Do I have any offers?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:16 - ID#298380)
Spot gold site
Eveyone should bookmark this site.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:24 - ID#287370)
everything down day
Let's see...Dollar, T-bills, T-Bonds, Stocks, Gold, Silver, Plats all down today. What happened? Did Imelda Marcos unload her portfolio today?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:26 - ID#432395)
@Contrarian---I'm waiting for the ratio!!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:29 - ID#403195)

There has been talk here recentlly again about who is "buying" all this gold that the c.b.s are "selling". It had always seemed to this observer that in the last few years this was just a tape painting exercise. It is the c.b.s who are doing the buying, too. Consider the volume of trades in London. Can there be some other reason for that volume than to swamp the usual commerce?

( Then again, it could all be in China and we will shortly see a convertable yuan!! Gai ho doy! )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:36 - ID#288466)
Gold waves in European currencies

My guess is that this is the beginning of wave 5 ( of 5 ) down in the European currencies: SF, DM, etc.

You can watch semi-real time gold futures in terms of these currencies by using this link:

In the symbols box, enter

GCZ8 /SFZ8 or


Remember to put a space between the GCZ8 and the /

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:36 - ID#35571)
@Crystal Ball
Oats are up. Maybe it was Mr. Ed

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:38 - ID#35571)
the initial outlay isn't so bad, it's the recurring costs that bite.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:40 - ID#203137)
Well for my wife and kids, not all the gold in the world. That's why I'm hanging on to my present costly position. What the heck it's only money, fiat or Pms, you can't take it with you, so go all the way and go gold.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:42 - ID#348286)
@Trouble Ahead
It used to be that Gold tanking would be bullish for equities in general. No longer. The spectre of deflation is around the corner and this is the indicator. IMO Gold equities going lower, with general equities following shortly with bigtime loses. This is October bear delayed.
We may finally get the run on the funds from all those "IM IN FOR THE LONG TERM IDIOTS", sorry but thats what they are.
They are in for long term losses.
Anyway cash and physical Gold for insurance the only way in these turbulant times....... ALL IMO.....

And then Y2K hits.....

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:46 - ID#432130)
My opinion...
...of what I think I see, is that "They" have propped up the market to make things look good. "They" know that the feces is about to hit the fan with regard to bank failures, etc. By propping up the Dow to 8500, "They" have set it up so that when the next wave of bad news hits, it will hit an "8500" Dow instead of a "7500" Dow. So the Dow is just going to sit at the 8500 level +or- 100 points until that bad news hits.

Perhaps because I am just a "schmoe" I see it all that simple. But my simple point of view has been making me money in this market, and I say who cares if "They" manipulate the price of gold down again. "Their" big bag of deceptive tricks is just about empty. I can wait for the real value of gold to hit home after those idiots fail to rescue this Fiat monetary system.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:52 - ID#287370)
@ Gollum
Wilbur !!!!

Shek- loved the Sting thing! So true !


(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:53 - ID#432395)
What say we all throw $5 into the pot, and each guess on what country
is going to announce gold sales, the next time the POG pokes it's head
above 300.

Could they be going in alphabetical order? My guess in that case is it's
Australia's turn again.

Anybody who pick's the IMF is only entitled to half the pot.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:56 - ID#224151)
Looking at the Charts.....listening to the rhetoric.......staring at the Stars and going with
my Gut.....I am of the HO that Gold is about to move up again..... with vigor!.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 22 1998 10:59 - ID#270253)
Something good to look forward to
One of my main tools for determining which markets I want to be in, is to take long term rates of return and determine statistically oversold conditions. I have the returns on the Toronto Gold Index in US$ since 1969. I take a five year average rate of return and flag it as a Major buy when it is one standard deviation below normal. ( Remember stats from university ) .

Gold shares will be oversold for a buy going into 1999.

Here are the results for Toronto Golds from previous buy signals:

1979 +85.30%
1985 +52.21%
1986 +26.99%
1993 +98.36%
1999 ??????

I don't know what will happen between now and year end, but I will be ready for 1999. You saw it here first.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:19 - ID#350145)
@Mike re standard deviation
Mike, what is the standard deviation you have figured; and how many standard deviations below the mean do you figure we are at now?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:19 - ID#350145)
@Mike re standard deviation
Mike, what is the standard deviation you have figured; and how many standard deviations below the mean do you figure we are at now?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:22 - ID#234182)
GIB. ... next country Japan
I think Japan ..between Japan and Germany

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:23 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 173.150 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 293.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 21 Oct 1998 ) : 173.472 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 21 Oct 1998 ) : 295.250 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 21 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8714 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 21 Oct 1998 ) : 4.8900 US Dollars

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:32 - ID#413109)
Mike Stewart
Date: Thu Oct 22 1998 10:59
Mike Stewart ( Something good to look forward to ) ID#270253:
Would you be good enough to email a chart of all since '69, or
the figures and I'll create my own chart. This is just the kind
of stuff I like the best.


Are y'all enjoying the action today???

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:34 - ID#212197)
@gwyz (My opinion...)
I liked to read your opinion.
Question is: how does, what we are used to call "market", change?

Think of the newest creative plan of market fostering ( isn't "fostering" already a better word than "manipulation"? ) a la HongKong. "They" plan to use assets, including stocks, to back their currency.
Actually, that's already much better than to use thin air currencies as reserves, provided the P/E ratios are not at the moon.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:34 - ID#187109)
a.m. stuff
TeddO called me just minutes ago............. ( no doubt to rub my nose in the Padres defeat to the GREAT 1998 YANKEE club. He is a HUGE Yankee fan and he gave it to me good so I'm feelin pretty small right now.................. ( ho hum ) ..................ALAS! 'tis only a game.............yeah right................and Imelda Marcos has only a few pairs of shoes............ ( ouch ) .

Anyway, he is on a roll. He has finished the framing and almost completed the roof. ( just in time 'cause now he wants to jump offa it ;- ) ) ..... They will be moving in soon. I am kinda glad the Yanks kicked some butt because this made his spirit MUCH better. He seems to have new vigor and resolve to complete his house before the terrible weather begins. Christine is back at home now and is doing quite well. I talked with her a bit and she seems in good spirits too and is anxious for completion. btw, cherokee, Willy was a nieghbors dog in Cape Breton that TeddO had 'adopted' while he was there. Willy was left behind with the real owners.......I had mentioned this before, perhaps you missed it. TeddO's best friend now ( other than his wife ) is his hammer.....and his pillow at night.......and his geritol ;- ) ......

We talked of the DOW, XAU, and JohnD's favorite ABX. We both agreed that he should wait a little while before jumping aboard anything gold related right now. ( on a side note ) ......many PM stocks have been showing consolidation patterns.........could today be the breakout? hmmmmmm......I wonder.

He says hi to all with mention of Aurator and Studio.R and especially F* ( NOT ) . He will be back with us come December.....maybe. He does have a slight problem though. It sems that ANY call off his island is considered long distance. He is in a quandry with choosing ISP's. He asked that I ask youse guys/gals for solutions. Are there any 800#'s or can he use WEB TV as to not incur a long distance charge? Any help out there would be much appreciated.......TIA. Go ABX!! woof woof!

I long for the day that I read ANOTHER one of TeddO's early a.m. weather reports...............uh huh.

Reify - you go! you chart reading kinda guy!

Crystal Ball - I had to steal that Imelda thing......tia;- )

T#1 - I tip my hat to the CHAMPS. A great year you had. AGULP&APUFF from California to ya. I'll see you in FOURTEEN years..... ( ugh ) . I feel bad for Tony G ( his seat is being made already for cooperstown ) ........his picture is the one they use in Webster's when defining class........yup.......yowser! We picked a Baaaaaad year to get to the BIG show...........what can I say.............. ( damn yankees:- ) ...

Farfel - ( repost )


Certainly, progress is occurring since the Argentinian disclosure

had relatively little effect percentage wise on the POG. It is this very progress...this relatively muted reaction to the

proposed gold sale that once again establishes the immutable reality of today's new and increasinly vibrant Gold





( my comments ) ............YAWN. nuff said.

go golf ( ing ) ! smack it around


(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:37 - ID#371229)
Gibb..... no repeats, then still alphabetical----- BRAZIL!!!!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:39 - ID#350179)

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:40 - ID#270253)
I take the five year average annual return for the Toronto Gold Index. The next step is to calculate the average of all of these and calculate the Std Dev. If 1998 were to end today, we would be two standard deviations below normal.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:45 - ID#333126)
@chicken man (re: tickets on the train)
sold my baggage and tickets for profit. not sitting on the November train. might buy tickets for that December one if the bond dipsters make enough of a dent in it.

next week's outlook is lotsa stormy weather. the train might leave early.

will crude fall back? i'm sure there's space on that supertanker for a ride up...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:50 - ID#333126)
CNN poll says 38% (so far) believe budget surplus is a scam

hmmmmmmm..... .....

where's my tequila?

Loose Lips
(Thu Oct 22 1998 11:59 - ID#31764)
My guess is Argentina...and lets make it 1/10 oz of gold.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:04 - ID#341227)
The New Gold Paradigm...
AG EDWARDS on CNBC spoke quite negatively about platinum just moments ago...calling for at least another $30 decline. At the same time, the spokesperson ( Lee Reid ) noted that gold is performing with solid strength especially in the face of platinum's continued decline. He forecast continued strength in gold.

Yet, another brick in the the foundation of a gold bull...



(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:07 - ID#433143)
Ok guys, you all better get your Power Wheels to your Power Wheels Service Center.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:08 - ID#288295)

All calls to my WebTV are local, but Teddo may be
a special case. Perhaps you might want to contact
WebTV with the question?

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:10 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ Nothing wrong with a profit!!
I've never heard of anybody going busted as long as they took profits off the table...I'm still playing liars polker...Got 30-128's..40-127's and 50- 126's ...think they are going to make me play my hand right up to the expiry be it!...I'm going to play!!

Think the supertanker is going to be a great ride!!...but I'm going to wait till the tickets get REAL cheap...I mean REAL cheap!!...this liquidity crisis is worse than we can imagine..loved your post yesterday
( 11:40 ) .."significant problems" that statement!!! our language that means they are scared to death!!!

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:24 - ID#187109)
gibb and sales
Oh Canada....... ( it comes before Chile ) .

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:33 - ID#71231)
GGO - big block sell - Usually signals new attack on gold

12:27:58 15.000 124000 AMEX

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:34 - ID#411320)
Stock market can be compared to dead men walking
Go Gold go Cash Go Puts.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:36 - ID#339274)
FWIW Like a good sentry,Plat gave a sell yesterday midday
for the complex.Right this moment it is breaking down and if
the 335 Jan contract gets taken out another drop to 330.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:39 - ID#350145)
Mike Stewart re standard deviation
by your figuring then gold is only oversold by this amount about 3% of the time. this seems about right to me and also points up what a bargin gold and silver is right now. i have been aggressively buying junior co's for about 2 months - right through what i think was a classic washout several weeks ago. however i know this unique world situation good deal a hand we have never seen before, so i am prepared to wait. thanks for the info. mole

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:41 - ID#187109)
'Merka! ( is we at the M's yet? ) But then they only have gold colored lead in their can they sell. I think there is secret Xploration happening on the moon.......and NASA is leading the drilling................or is it fake drilling..........or is it a fake moon.......THAT'S IT!! NASA concocted this whole moon thingy. They........and Steve Speilberg have spent squillions on a HUGE projection screen to fake us all into believing there even is a moon............I have yet to figure why but I think it's true....and this whole thing about the moon have an effect on the oceans tides is nonsensical..........I think AG is behind that one.......something about reverse psychological effects on the eb and flow of the DOW........................hmmmmmmmmmmm.......give me time to put something together on this what were we talking about......oh yeah......alphebetical gold

can't say 'Stralia......they ain't got none........'bove ground that is, eh? Or can they rumour that they will sell all their below ground gold once they unbury it..... ( unbury is my new word-o-the-day ) ................. ( that's EB, always 'spandin his cabulary ) ........

gotta go........more later on this moon existence stuff........I gotsta talk to my rocket scientist buddies...............Kuston?? Where are ya buddy?? A little help here ;- ) the padded room


(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:50 - ID#354133)
I sincerely apologize for MY portion of the rudeness and waste of bandwidth the past few days.

LGB - re, your Wed Oct 21 1998 16:09 post

Your question: " come you never complain about Newsletter writing charlatans posing as investment advisors, recommending S&P Puts just before each explosive UP move in the stock market?"

My answer: I believe I have... I also think there are enough folks "flaming" the particular "charlatan" ( your word ) to whom you refer in your question...

Chat group version of the Golden Rule: "He who flames, so should He be flamed..."

Unless Mr. Kitner tells me to knock it off, I will continue to raise the "bullsh!t & charlatan" flag.

'nuff said...

Back to lurking...

Latest quotes off the ticker:

Jan Plat 337.00
Dec Gold 294.50
Dec Silver 4.880

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:51 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 173.150 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 293.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 173.058 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 292.900 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8850 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 22 Oct 1998 ) : 4.8800 US Dollars

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:55 - ID#37463)
Budget and snakeoil
As I mentioned on a post yesterday, Senator Dominici's chief aid spoke to us on the budget. He gave us number which were incredible. For instance he talked out of one side of his mouth about the alleged buget surplus but at the same time the deficit is growing. Maybe this is Clinton semantics but in my pocketbook when it shows an increasing deficity I do not have a buget surplus. This budget suplus talk is all so much bull droppings. Congress has this very bad habit of spending a surplus before it actually occurs.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 12:57 - ID#219363)
Equity Market
Are there any equity bulls on this forum ? If yes, I'm serious, I'd like to hear why you're bullish on stocks ( not gold or oil, but "regular" stocks ) . I'm just having trouble seeing the other side of the coin and could use an objective frame of reference, a reason I shouldn't be telling my friends that I think they should sell their porfolios. There have to be bulls out there, or nobody would be buying right now, speak up! *grin*. The only reason I can think of to buy equities is the reason I stayed in the so long - because everyone else did. That is, it might be a good time to buy because it might be time for everybody else to buy and push prices up even more. Beyond that, I'm having trouble seeing it.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:00 - ID#288466)
EB @ Fake Moon (Off topic)

OK.....I'm hesitant to join into this subject, but here's a question for the avid ( or is it rabid ) Moon people to answer:

Why are all the craters on the moon round? Why not oval craters or long trenches from glancing impacts?

Did all the meteorites strike the moon on a radial trajectory? Random chance would not favor this scenario.

Just curious.


Go gold

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:07 - ID#284255)
Bugs & bugs having more code problems.
An on-going problem.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:07 - ID#348257)
Just happened to surf by and caught your kwestion. I am still in equities - half gold shares, half some pet astrological plays. While I realize that part of it is an aberration for most investors, I DO think there are some great equity opportunities now. Not in the issues that carried the bull market, but certainly in small oil producers and drillers, and the golds. I am thinking long-term here - at least a 2 year horizon for significant appreciation, but the values are there. Gold and oil aren't going away soon. I also like certain small caps with good stories, interesting products, and, of course, great astrologicals coming in the next year or so. This is the perfect time to ambush your beaten down fabvorite. I would NOT counsel the average mutual fund buyer to jump back in the market. I see a challenge of the previous highs and a major topping pattern ahead, but that can include herculewan leaps in selected issues and sectors. But youy have to do your own research, or trust your manager very much. FWIW - I'm a 'selective" bull...for a while. PS - the bizarre small caps I frequent lag the major averages, so they should be moving up smartly when the Dow & S&P are just topping out again. This proably goes for most speculative issues, so load up on yo0ur beaten down favorite today if it hasn't moved in this rally.

Or...this is a mere reaction in a bear market and we are going down hard after a few weeks of stalling between here and 8900. Great help I am, eh?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:08 - ID#284255)
Russia Budgets Nothing for Y2K
. . . Nick Poluektov is a manager at Avgur, a Moscow-based computer firm whose focus is the assessment of technological accidents. In a recent interview, he summed up Russias predicament: "At the end of July, Alexander Krupnov ( chief of the State Communication Committee of the Russian Federation ) finally confessed that Y2K is a real problem for our country. He estimated that the cost of fixing the Millennium Bug in Russia would be $500 million. But he went on to say that not a single government ruble will be spent on Y2K, because the budget is empty."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:08 - ID#287279)
US consumers provide global liquidity???
Is this one of the reasons for saving the stock market?

"...with exports falling to a 1 1/2 year low, the US trade deficit surged to a record $16.8 billion. This is 15% higher than the previous month and leaves the deficit for the first eight months of this year at an alarming 50% above last year. The US consumer certainly still has the desire to borrow and spend, as imports grew another 2% from last month for a staggering total of almost $92 billion. Annualizing this huge deficit, it is possible that the US could buy more than $200 billion of goods than we sell over the next twelve months.***We are truly flooding the global financial system with dollars***....While the bulls see Greenspan as guaranteeing lower interest rates ensuring a continuation of the stock market and economic boom, we suspect, for many reasons including a weak dollar, that this is but wishful thinking."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:14 - ID#246224)
Calling a spade, er, a ..
shovel you dig with.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:14 - ID#262351)
Sharefin re
Hi Sharefin. uses buggy java. Delete files in your browser and try again. working fine for me but I've had the same problem. I am a lurker and enjoy your posts and the group.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:14 - ID#35571)
Short term I'm bullish on stocks. However, it's sort of a no news is good news kind of thing. In the absence of bad news the markets will proceed to go up as all the funds and players who increased their cash positions.

Intermediate term, I think we are waiting for some more shoes to drop. When they do the trouble will hit suddenly with little advance warning.

Long term, bullish again if by long term you mean after '99. Whether y2k turns out to be a big or a little problem it's going to bring increasing uneasiness to the markets as "the date" approaches.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:15 - ID#266105)

The marginal expansions are a reciprocal function of the
square root of the radical.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:16 - ID#246224)
When ya hear da train ..
ya better get off da track.

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:16 - ID#348257)
H&S Club
There was a cyber meeting of the International Head and Shoulders Club ( Inverse section ) this morning, and it appears that 290 may be right shoulder support for gold bullion, while 70 on the XAU must hold for a return move test of what is already a breakout from an inverse H&S for that average. Since "the shares usually lead the bullion" ( where have we heard THAT before? ) I would expect that in a best case scenario, bullion reverses from 290, and XAU starts up from around here. Penetrating either of these levels by the respective assets in question would be dismal news for gold bulls.

Besides, the Kitco Konsensus says the "bottom is in" Can't you smell it?

Great Day all!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:18 - ID#219363)
@Mike, etc.
Personally, I think that's a good way to buy stocks, and might be tempted to buy certain issues that way as well, by simply asking, "No matter what anyone else did, do I want to pay X$US for this companies shares, am I willing to do that no matter what the price goes down to". If I could answer yes to that ( which for me would have to mean the dividends looked good ) , then I'd have no trouble buying it. I did get freaked a little just now, I turned on CNBC to see what the buzz was all about. I could be biased, but it sounded to me like they were trying to convince themselves that everything was okay. The market's a/d line looks good, the bulls like to see this when that happens, etc. I was all chart stuff, or sentiment, but nobody is saying anything about dividends or income, only that this is likely to go for the same reasons it has been going up. Messages seems to be, buy now, because everyone else seems to be buying now.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:19 - ID#246224)
Wwwwwwoooooooo!! wwwwWOOOOOOoooooo ! ! !
Chugga, chugga, CHugga, Chugga .... WwwOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ! ! ! ! !

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:22 - ID#246224)
To late. They could not stop the train in time to save your sorry ...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:24 - ID#286249)
"Will Western civilization succeed or fail?"
"Will Western civilization succeed or fail?"

One full page, black, with this stark question in bold white letters.

1. What is the biggest threat to Western civilization as we know it? Many candidate answers, but perhaps we could agree that Y2K is near the very top of the list? So, for purposes of discussion, let's say, "Y2K".

2. "Beyond Eden" ( which looks like a good read incidentally ) on the site, shares the introduction to the book and part of the first chapter. Unusual. The point made, with beautiful subtly, is the duality of time, "We're here, we long for there", which may be expressed, in the computer world at least, as 'virtual' v 'real'. Also note the cover of "Beyond Eden" is a beautiful apple.

3. Clue about time travel: everyone on this board is a time traveler. We tend not to think about our galactic journeys in time-travel-terms, but that is exactly what we do. The corporeal body may be wedged in the corporate chair, but the inquiring mind is deeply engaged elsewhere, bouncing off of satellites. What is the real center of the real you? Your body or your mind? We allow that the mind needs the body's shelter, but does not the mind define the life? ( Stephen Hawkins ) Ergo: we are time travelers of the mind.

4. Has enormous significance to the Christian world, but is also a Significant in other faiths and systems. Interestingly, in the The Chapter Of The Deification Of The Members, The Book of the Dead" it is the point of deification, the name and the affirmation, "Whose word is truth." ( 1 ) /~drokk/BoD/tcotd.html
"The Word Is Truth" is a phrase that resonates for many peoples of many places.

5. "As we may think" by Vannevar Bush gives us our link to Memex, and Memex gives us the ability to link the Kairos question field, "History", "Ocean", "Teachers" , etc., to a project that brings all together:
Apple Computer, Fuji Xerox, Fuji Xerox Palo Alto, Sun Microsystems,

Fuji, Sun, Apple and a "New World Order" of a very different kind, one might say "MEMEX and BEYONDbeyond eden? others might ask.. see the MEMEX and Beyond websiteknee deep in coincidence again?

SUMMATION of Sorts: Fuji is an apple. Will Apple now have a Fuji? Ripening in the Sun of a new Eden = new OPERATING SYSTEM? For which a large number of the Time-Travelers WOULD GIVE THANKSGIVING? {:- ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:27 - ID#284255)
I don't know for sure but I think it's more than buggy data.
They have been playing around with their charting program a lot lately.

A few days back they had changed some features.
Adding new indicators.

They were chopping and changing around for days.
Eventually going back to their old format.

That last 10 minute gap looked buggy to me.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:35 - ID#273227)
EB - getting killed
EB - I'm lurking ( less and less since D.A. left though ) . Getting killed in a short CSCO. This NASDAQ just won't crack. Had a chance this morning - but I'm gready, didn't take it.

I sure wish I understood Harmony - the quarterly looked great to me. Yet the stock is down $1 in the last 2 weeks.

Have you bought your Iridium phone yet? I've been yapping on one at night lately. It is amazing!! You know the ole saying 'talk is cheap'? Well, it isn't in the real world - just here at Kitco. $3 a minutes is what I'm hearing.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:37 - ID#45173)
Poole should come to Kitco. We haven't underestimated it...
Poole Says "Should Not Underestimate" Size Of Us Financial Market Disturbance

( This is a headline-only alert, although it will likely be followed by an
article soon )

News at 11 :- )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:43 - ID#280215)
Mike Sheller - H&S Club

Basis Dec contract, 290 looks like support as you say. It does look like a classic picture forming. I was wondering if you see an Inverse H&S on the Weekly chart also? If 290 is penetrated, 278 ish looks like next support on a Weekly basis. The case for an Inverse H&S pattern looks to also be forming on the Weekly chart, although not as perfect looking of a picture as the daily. Your thoughts?? Thanks in advance!!

John Disney
(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:52 - ID#24135)
being pleasant ..
for Gunrunner ..
I accept your apology ..

for Cyclist ..
re platinum .. Ill say .. I stick
with 310 as a target as crazy as it
sounds ..

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:55 - ID#288186)
kuston; That's a very good question. Where is D.A.? I miss his very valuable
and insightful posts. Hope he comes back....

(Thu Oct 22 1998 13:57 - ID#288466)
SDRer - this may be of interest
Here's a source which has references to both Kairos and Vannevar Bush:

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:02 - ID#35571)
If you do a search on the web, you will find many references to kairos. Everything from religious groups to high tech companies in silicon valley.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:04 - ID#21275)
Microsoft and Gates
is using the Clintler defense. Will it work for him ?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:07 - ID#35571)
The biggest threat to modern civilization as we know it is anything which would disrupt the flow of oil and the power grid. And many kinds of disruptions can happen in a heartbeat.

Not so awfully many years ago it wouldn't have been too bad, people could always go back to Grandparents farm. Now there is NO WAY the millions in the cities could survive.

Of course, aborigines in the outback wouldn't even notice.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:12 - ID#341227)
Why Bonds Must Tumble...and Gold Will Soar.
Finally, a decent article on the impending super-stagflation from today's FINANCIAL POST...description of a bond bubble about to bust.

I guess I'm NOT the only lunatic out there?



Thursday, October 22, 1998

Personal Finance

Bear bond market nightmare looms

The Financial Post
Interest rates are edging down again, and with them mortgage rates.
The U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates one-quarter of a percentage point three weeks
ago and, in a surprise move, another quarter point a week ago. This has injected new life into a
squeamish stock market, and also assures owners of bonds -- and bond and mortgage mutual
funds -- of some capital gains.
The example of Japan, which has seen rates drop to near zero after a decade of deflation, might
argue in favor of still more rate drops to come, particularly if stock markets start to weaken
again. But within the next 18 months, there is an argument that rates may start shooting up.
That opinion comes from an unconventional source: Andrew Willman, president of
Toronto-based Noram Capital Management Inc.
Willman has been bearish on stocks for some time, although he expected the current rebound.
He also thinks long-term bonds may be in for a rough spell. His Noram Investment Strategy
Reports makes the case for the coming rise in rates, which is exactly the opposite of what has
been taking place the past few weeks.
In other words, not only is there danger of a protracted bear market in stocks ( notwithstanding
this month's "buying panic" ) but also of a bear market in bonds -- something that seems
counter-intuitive to people leaving equities for the perceived safe haven of bonds.
Willman points to Korea, Indonesia and Russia as examples of the three phrases of a currency
crisis. First comes a debt bubble, then a collapse in the currency, followed by a surge in interest
The U.S. now has a massive debt bubble, Willman argues, fuelled by margin debt, consumer
debt and massive corporate, municipal and government debts. Consumers have borrowed to the
hilt and depleted their cash. Delinquencies and bankruptcies are soaring, and are already six times
worse than during the great depression of the 1930s. Bankruptcies are just as serious a problem
in Canada.
Willman expects this final leg of the bull market to take the Dow to as high as 9300 by the
spring or summer of 1999. But then he expects the bear market to reassert itself in earnest,
fuelled in part by the looming T2K bomb ( the millennium computer year 2000 crisis ) .
Willman says the Fed is already talking about injecting billions of dollars next year into the
U.S. banking system in case consumers and businesses start withdrawing cash from their bank
accounts in advance of the millennium change. At that point, interest rates will start to creep
upward, with the potential to soar if the Y2K crisis accelerates.
In a somewhat similar vein is the October 1998 Outlook, produced by Toronto-based CC&L
Private Capital Management. While produced after the Long-Term Capital Management LP
hedge-fund crisis and before last week's stock market rally, CC&L suggested the need for more
transparency of financial markets and better risk management techniques could "ultimately lead to
higher risk premiums [increased cost of capital]."
For 30 years, bond yields have had a negative correlation to stock prices: equity prices rise
when bond yields fall. But CC&L speculates this relationship may be breaking down. With
soaring volatility, "investors are starting to act irrationally as they scramble for liquidity and safe
Noram's Willman lists five steps to prepare for higher interest rates as 1999 unfolds:

1.Reduce or eliminate household debt, starting with your mortgage. This is
always a prudent strategy, no matter what kind of an economy we are in. If you have a
variable-rate mortgage, switch to a fixed rate, Willman suggests. Refinance with the
lowest possible fixed rate. Pay down credit card debts and avoid new borrowing.
2.Avoid long-term notes or bonds, and switch to short- and medium-term
fixed-income investments. The yield difference between long and shorter
government bonds is modest anyway; long-term bonds should be viewed strictly as
trading vehicles.
3.Stay out of the stock market -- except for resource stocks and senior gold stocks,
which may benefit from the currency turmoil.
4.Build your cash. At least three to six months' worth of living expenses should be in
cash or equivalents. This should be done well in advance of 2000.
5.Look for bear market investments. Shorting opportunities may be in abundance
by the middle of 1999 if the Dow has fought its way past 9000. That should herald the
beginning of a secular bear market that could last a decade, Willman foresees, one
similar to that in 1970. By that time, not only stocks but long bonds will be a bad place
to be.

A not dissimilar analysis on long bonds is contained in Robert Prechter's At the Crest of The
Tidal Wave ( New Classic Library: Gainsville Ga., 1995 ) . As a bear market deepens, more
people will move to bonds, many of them long bonds, Prechter writes. As a bear brings on a
weaker economy, "what is the one thing that almost no one will be expecting? The answer is
higher interest rates."
Prechter notes the stock market euphoria of the 1990s also helped the financial industry to sell
weaker debt packages. In their search for higher yields, investors have snapped up junk bonds
( usually known by the euphemism "high yield" when held by bond mutual funds ) and risky
emerging-markets debt. By "the end of the process, the public's beloved bond mutual funds will
be devastated," Prechter writes.
Paradoxically, if the economy fell into depression, the result would be both higher and lower
interest rates. As institutions fail, investors will flee low-quality bonds, so junk bonds and other
low-rated debt instruments will have to offer ever higher premiums to attract investors. Most
people will rush to AAA-rated bonds, which will not be forced to pay such high rates. Prechter
suggests high-grade corporate bonds may even be safer than those issued by most governments.
"The most important question bondholders can, and must, ask themselves is: 'Is this issuer
really safe?' By the end of the bear market, the list of those that ultimately default will be far
longer than anyone today remotely suspects," Prechter writes. He recommends "the shortest term
yield-bearing instruments, so we will be positioned to make money on rising yields, not lose it."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:13 - ID#45173)
Most leasing companies facing heavy derivatives losses
Leasing Solutions falls on Q3 EPS warning

NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Shares of Leasing Solutions Inc.
tumbled 54 percent on Thursday after the company reversed itself and
warned that its third quarter profits would likely fall far short of Wall
Street expectations.

Haven't heard from GTE Leasing yet. Maybe a coupla bucks to be made shorting them?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:14 - ID#35571)
"The Word Is Truth" is a phrase that resonates for many peoples of many places.


However, what is is what is. Words can only be a virtual truth, like the dummy facade of a Hollywood movie set western town.

We reduce truth to what we can think about, talk about, and thus miss the point of it.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:18 - ID#35571)
Dumping for the close.
It's getting to be a regular formal ceremony.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:21 - ID#246224)
.. financial assets
Got cash, before the crash of the titanic merchant banks, my friend? They were so kind to lend you their last dime .. and you will pay for their excesses. A great transference of debt to the "PUBLIC" from the 'private' rank, so to speak. Then, of course, the full 'faith and security' thereof will be greatly diminished .. debt being all there is to see from shining sea.

Got cash?

Enough to survive the closings, the lines, the suicides?

The reason why you are here is because you are not 'normal' or else you would not be reading these posts, or the signs on ( in ) them. Due your diligence, friend.

Got cash?

Because, after the earthquakes - which level what once stood proudly and defiantly errect - the ATMs and the teller windows will not be open. Do you really think the Federal Reserve is stockpiling cash for YOU to withdraw from the 'bank'? HARDLY A THOUGHT IN THEIR MINDS, you are! Hardly!

They want you to know that they think you are stupid enough to believe that line. Its the 'new economy' stupid! A cash only society. And they will have more than HALF OF ALL THE CASH, which you will do anything for to save your life. They will use laws and regulations to rig the tripwires of their wrath ..

.. and the police WILL fire on you rioters, you threats to society, you middleclass bad boys and girls who try to get what is/was yours .. or even a small percentage of it.

Got cash, friend?

Don't delay your trip to the display or to the teller, who you do not need to tell but who should tell yer. Ya got yer ones, yer fives, yer tens .. and coins are our friends. Change is coming ya know.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:22 - ID#266105)
a french view on coining gold rubles

Voyeur Professor
(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:23 - ID#231112)
A Gold Bull beginning or just bull?

On a day such as this with gold threatening to break resistance at $290, it is some small solace to know a few are still optimistic.

A New Gold Bull Market Is Beginning Right in the Midst of Global Deflation

Posted on Thursday, October 22, 1998 at 08:55 AM

by Dan Ascani
The Global Market Strategist

A new bull market in gold stocks is very likely beginning. A new bull market in gold itself appears imminent, as would also be the case with the entire precious metals complex if, in fact, this assessment is correct.

There is no need to again reiterate the many technical and fundamental reasons we expect a precious metals and gold stock bull market. However, we can update the situation as follows:

From a technical standpoint, gold has spent the entire year basing after 18 years of bear market. That basing process is thus far successful, with last month's brief break of the January low not significant and not seeing any follow-through selling. If gold moves above the $317 area significantly, we can conclude that, after nine months of testing, the long-term Fibonacci support level of $281 is, within a normal margin for error, marking the end of the bear market. Additionally, we have observed that historically, after a mega bull market in stocks ends and deflation sets in, gold stocks typically begin a long-term secular bull market. The last time this situation occurred was in 1930 when gold shares launched a five-year bull market, the first nearly three years of it against the general downtrend of the plunging bear market in stocks. Gold later bottomed in the midst of the deflationary depression and launched a multi-year bull market of its own.

Although the fast-moving global environment in the late 20th century is much different than that of the 1930s ( especially in the fact that the world is no longer on the gold standard as it was in the 1930s ) , a similar outlook for the metals and gold stocks after years of washout appears in the cards as we have forecast. Although we cannot rule out another round of gold weakness, it is so-far-so-good for gold's prospects for launching a bull market. This will especially be true if, in fact, the newest bull phase in gold shares is for real as we suspect. Its prospects are perhaps enhanced when one considers a statistic released last year by a market research organization: that the entire valuation of all the gold mining companies in the world total less than the valuation the market places on one major blue chip stock, Pfizer. This, anyone would certainly contend, is an extreme in sentiment that can turn long bear markets into bull markets. Gold appears to have completed a Five-Wave Elliott decline into the late August low, completing the minimum requirements for the bear market from an Elliott Wave standpoint. Those familiar with the esoteric details of the Wave Principle would recall that a Five-Wave decline can extend into a larger one, though, and that is the possibility that would take gold to lower levels, likely below $250 toward $225. However, this has not yet occurred, and with the gold stock sector soaring against the bear market downtrend in the general stock market, this possibility does not carry odds above majority, in our opinion.

A significant move above $317 in spot gold is needed to break the market out and confirm a new bull phase. As I have observed, a new bull market in gold could take gold hundreds of dollars higher, depending on many variables. A movement back to the gold standard by some or all countries of the integrated global economy, for example, would lead to a reaccumulation of gold by world central banks after years of dumping gold onto the market.

The XAU Gold/Silver Index is just beginning a bull market, as we have indicated is likely. Fibonacci resistance levels along the way up are 74.00, 89.71, 101.81, 114.89, and 155.77, the latter of which is the 1996 peak. Even if this peak is not exceeded, the gold stock sector, as measured by the XAU Index, is likely to triple before the bull phase is complete. Bull markets of this type typically last years and, as a result, this is a long-term outlook and buy recommendation.

Silver is under completely different fundamentals than gold, but is still scheduled to participate in a multi-year bull market. Additionally, bull market or not in the gold sector, silvers bearish Wave count from the early 1998 peak at $7.50 implies another round of new lows, likely to the $4.15 area, before it is ready to embark in a bull market.

Source: The Global Market Strategist, P.O. Box 5309, Gainesville, GA 30504.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:26 - ID#339274)
hourly chart
FWIW The large cap gold stocks display an uncanny head and
shoulder formation ,neckline fractured ...I guess we'll see
My target is still 67 and 63

John Disney: Plat is to bottom next week,it would be the buy
of the week at 310 with all that money pumping going on.
Did you take a look at sgoly's chart of the last 12 years?
Even Rangy starts to act stronger relative to Drooy.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:27 - ID#341227)
@GOLLUM...I take great solace in the gold dumps before any close.. is now forming recurrent pattern that can be easily and profitably traded.

A huge gold dump augurs another major downturn in the equities market.
Buy puts on selected equities.

Then, once the equities markets begin to tank, gold reflates as a future indicator of the government's need to pump more liquidity into the economy ( inflate ) to preclude a crash scenario. Buy Gold.

The slingshot keeps getting pulled back farther and farther.

For example: A four dollar dump followed by a 12 dollar slingshot rebound...or even greater is something I would expect to see soon. CB intervention seems to be increasingly ineffective.

In any case, we have not seen anything remotely resembling panic in either the equities or bonds markets. When panic finally arrives, gold will experience daily double digit gains.



(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:31 - ID#93127)
Gollum-Going back to Grandparent's farm

Thing is, nowadays even the Grandparent's have left the farm. They have a pied--terre in select capitals and on choice shores and 'drop-in' on grandchildren to share latest adventures.

Re-truth" and thus miss the point of it."
Gollum, one thinks that is a real truth. {:- ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:49 - ID#269128)
Russia IS the key.
First defaults on many debts......recall article last year, Russia was actually buying gold in the lows late last year probably with borrowed bucks from the IMF, this idea appeals on more than level: )

Almost it seemed intantionally floated another paper Ruble which lasted a matter of months. Now the capper comes when it begins mobilising gold reserves into the hands of the Russian people some of which have been in the hands of the government since being grasped from the tight clutches of the since deceased Russian monarchy. Finally after 80 years the true essence of communism is manifesting itself without the cancerous influence of power mad leaders where the saying "all for one and one for all" rings true in terms of the gold and silver.

Though I am repulsed by most of what communism has done to Russia perhaps without the solid foundation of sound money any political system is doomed. You only need to take one look at Switzerland to see the stability ( near stagnation ) which comes from a sound money. The Swiss will never give this up, yet idiotic economists scoff at the idea as it would mean a dramatic simplification of their field without usurous interest rate calculations...imagine a world without bond markets....wouldn't we all be better off?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 14:49 - ID#333127)
I like that thinking.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:02 - ID#219363)

The truth cannot be known. An ant cannot know the moons of Jupiter, and a lion only knows the truth of his own hunger, and of the pride from his own perspective. We humans can only know the truth of ourselves. How's the quote go "the proper study of man is mankind" ? We save the ocean, for us. We save the ozone layer, for us. We study ants and their behavior, for us. The "good" of the rainforest is the destruction of us, and so we barter with the truth, positioning ourselves for the advancement of our own collective vision, the good of the human. But the Universe says nothing, a rock moved from here to there means nothing, a meteor destroying the earth, is of no "true" value. As soon as we take a position, the Universe becomes Good and Evil. My girlfriend likes Vanilla ice-cream, and that is the whole truth of it. In the end, all the ants strive for the singularity of the ant colony against the forces of chaos and destruction ( like the fire crackers I used to stick in ant hills down in South Carolina ) , woowoo! big fun. There is a truth to be known, but it's a human truth, and any other pursuit will eventually lead down the road to insanity.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:15 - ID#71231)
OBV peaking on major stocks

AA AXP GM ( could be in beginning of trend reversal )

Positive Subgroup - flat or in a negative trend
KO ibm dell msft

SubSubgroup - just now turning negative

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:15 - ID#284255)
I stuffed up earlier - here it is.
sharefin ( Y2k - - - Must read ) ID#284255:

This report is from CSIS.

I would recommend that all who value their assets, lives and families to read what is now being discussed on a global scale.

This is one of the best examples of Gov'ts coming out of denial.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:21 - ID#371229)

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:24 - ID#246224)
Regardless of the "price" I think about what it means to own gold and silver. How many people do you know who own 1 ounce of gold, or 10 ounces or 100 ounces? Not that many really and even less the more you think about. Like cash in a cashless society that crashes. Like oil in a motorized society which has no more oil. Like electricity in a society which has no more electricity. Like crops in a society which has little food.

If you have what is precious then you have wealth, regardless of what others may think of its "value" from one moment to the next. And when things don't quite work out like they were planned, then you are doing OK.

Things others need or want in a time of duress and chaos.

Things like generousity and love and peace..if you have them, share them. Freely you have received so freely give. Owe no man anything except to love. Live in peace as much as it is within you. If you see your brother cold or ill-clad then feed and shelter him.

Job 28:12 - 19, 28

"Where is Wisdom found? And where is the place of Understanding? No one knows its price; neither is it found where men live. The depths of the earth say, 'It is not hidden in me'; the sea says, 'It is not within my depths'. It can not be bought with gold, nor can silver be weighed for its price. It can not be compared in value to the most precious gold or onyx or sapphire. Gold and precious gems can not be equated with it; you would never exchange it for mere jewlery even of the finest sort. One would hardly care to mention coral or pearls: because the price of Wisdom far surpasses rubies. All the topaz and gold in Ethiopia could not be considered a fair price to pay for it."

"To mankind God Almighty said, 'LOOK! The fear of the LORD, that is Wisdom; departing from evil is Understanding'."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:27 - ID#371229)
Truth is. We and our Father are One. This knowable not by study but by
silently listening within in meditation. Gold is the truth of man's economic
mind. It forecasts deflation and inflation. When man supresses its free
expression It will not suffer fools lightly!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:28 - ID#350145)
@envy re truth
that was a pretty existential posting envy. i agree with that position as a practical matter, i like to think we can know something, more or less. Alfred North Whitehead, my favorite, said we have a tendency to divide the universe into the organic and inorganic, but he thought consciousness was a third system in the universe. makes sense to me. i wonder what truth is to it, if it exists?

Cage Rattler
(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:32 - ID#33182)
What happened to the 'dumping for the close' ceremony ?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:34 - ID#284255)
Statement of Joel C. Willemssen - Government Reform and Oversight

The public faces a high risk that critical services provided by the government and the private sector could be severely disrupted by the Year 2000 computing crisis. Financial transactions could be delayed, flights grounded, power lost, and national defense affected. Moreover, America's infrastructures are a complex array of public and private enterprises with many interdependencies at all levels. These many interdependencies among governments and within key economic sectors could cause a single failure to have adverse repercussions. Key economic sectors that could be seriously affected if their systems are not Year 2000 compliant include information and telecommunications; banking and finance; health, safety, and emergency services; transportation; power and water; and manufacturing and small business.

The information and telecommunications sector is especially important. In testimony in June, we reported that the Year 2000 readiness of the telecommunications sector is one of the most crucial concerns to our nation because telecommunications are critical to the operations of nearly every public- and private-sector organization. For example, the information and telecommunications sector ( 1 ) enables the electronic transfer of funds, the distribution of electrical power, and the control of gas and oil pipeline systems; ( 2 ) is essential to the service economy, manufacturing, and efficient delivery of raw materials and finished goods; and ( 3 ) is basic to responsive emergency services. Reliable telecommunications services are made possible by a complex web of highly interconnected networks supported by national and local carriers and service providers, equipment manufacturers and suppliers, and customers.

In addition to the risks associated with the nation's key economic sectors, one of the largest, and largely unknown, risks relates to the global nature of the problem. With the advent of electronic communication and international commerce, the United States and the rest of the world have become critically dependent on computers. However, there are indications of Year 2000 readiness problems in the international arena. For example, a June 1998 informal World Bank survey of foreign readiness found that only 18 of 127 countries ( 14 percent ) had a national Year 2000 program; 28 countries ( 22 percent ) reported working on the problem; and 16 countries ( 13 percent ) reported only awareness of the problem. No conclusive data were received from the remaining 65 countries surveyed ( 51 percent ) . In addition, a survey of 15,000 companies in 87 countries by the Gartner Group found that the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, Australia, and Sweden were the Year 2000 leaders, while nations including Germany, India, Japan, and Russia were 12 months or more behind the United States.
Serious enough.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:38 - ID#284255)
Cage Rattler
Cause they want a political rally. ^o-o^


(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:43 - ID#365216)
I know this sounds sick but. . .
I am to the point where I almost want metals prices to go down
so that when I am ready to buy ( I find a good, reputable firm
and my gun safe is ready for delivery and the gold/platinum spread is
$20 or less ) I can get a real good deal.

Here's a question some dealers out there should be able to answer:

Let's say a dealer buys 1000 one-ounce golden eagles from the mint
at a certain price. How does he protect himself from future drops
in price when selling to his customers? Does he automatically
go short on 10 100-ounce futures contracts and then make his coin
profits just from buy/ask spreads and commissions? Thanks for
your responses in advance.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:43 - ID#254288)
Bill and Monica are just kidstuff when compared to what really goes on

With major world financial institutions taking big hits, last nights inaction relative to rates in Germany is a poor excuse for the gold dump.

It seems to me that STOCK MARKET 101 still rules in a world that has changed drastically since the Asian currency crisis and especially so in recent months.

This whole thing is a of a poor job of ass covering manipulations, the bullcrap is stinking out reason, which seems to have left the financial markets.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:47 - ID#252150)
The Williamson post of last night followed by the Strachan post this A.M.
reinforce what many of us have been aware of for years. The parastic
elites have been sucking the life blood out of the poor & powerless in 3rd world Counries in order to prop up an artificially high standard of living in the 1st world Western industrialized Countries, so that they can enrich themselves with the acqiesence of a dumbed down, uninformed population.

This immoral, corrupt game is coming to an end. The dominoes are falling. Next Brazil & then Mexico again. At that point the bailouts will become impossible without inflicting a lot more pain on workers in 1st world Countries. By the time those workers realize what has happened, their standard of living will be on the way down to 3rd world levels. And the most frustrating thing about this horrible debacle is that the conditions are all in place & irrevocable.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:48 - ID#365216)
to Allen on "wealth"
Amen, brother. What good is all the gold and silver of the earth
if one loses his soul? Let us prepare as best we can to fight evil
and disaster but not lose sight of our ultimate goal which is to be
with GOD for eternity.

That is all.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:49 - ID#254288)
Bill and Monica are just kidstuff when compared to what really goes on

With major world financial institutions taking big hits,
last nights inaction relative to rates in Germany is a
poor excuse for the gold dump.

It seems to me that STOCK MARKET 101 still rules in a
world that has changed drastically since the Asian
currency crisis and especially so in recent months.

This whole thing is a poor job of ass covering
manipulations, the bullcrap is stinking out reason,
which seems to have left the financial markets.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:52 - ID#252150)
Skinny@Sheller poll. I posted that I was negative short & long term.
Have also posted that I have been short PDG several times since it topped out. I stated that if the USD goes to 170Yen ( 60% chance ) then POG will fall to 230.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 15:53 - ID#222231)
Date: Mon Sep 07 1998 11:51
Pete ( ALL-repost-Everyone to a man scoffed at this prediction. Not
even one reply. ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Please reread item #3.

Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 23:53
Pete ( ALL-Dead cat bounce? ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even as bad as the drop has been the past week I think we have one more

leg up, possibly to 10,000 before the final implosion. I will try to
enumerate as follows:

( 1 ) Many have profits that would be subject to capital gains taxes of 20%

or more. The herd will not sell until their losses are substantially greater
than 20%.

( 2 ) The herd mentality will be to reenter the market at 7000+ as a buying
opportunity one last time because they have the mistaken belief that the
equity market is still viable.

( 3 ) The FRB will lower rates very soon because if they don't, they will
fear the consequences.this will give one more final breath of life to the

( 4 ) Finally the pundits and media will be convincing the herd not to
panic, a fact that is apparent from surveys of the ignorent investors. This
will give the imputus to # ( 2 ) .

All of the above should occur within the next two months. Do not despair
for I believe this will be the last hurrah before the final meltdown. The
precious metals will shine as never before shortly thereafter. IMHO.

I for one have no empathy for greedy investors that expect 20%-30% gains

yearly forever. They will finally get what they rightfully deserve.

Gone fishing, not for good buys? but the real thing. BBML.

Read my last two posts on K2 to farfel. They corelate to this post in a
dramatic way. What the FRB is about to do is a defacto devaluation of the
dollar. The flood of shorts to cover will explode the price of gold, all
commodities including oil, as the dollar begins its collapse. Will this
scenario validate ANOTHER'S THOUGHTS? I think so. IMHO.

Return to Kitco Homepage

Oh ye of little faith take heed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:07 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 22

Gold 827,489 - 48,820 troy ounces
Silver 73,393,105 - 57,468 troy ounces
Copper 68,896 + 204 short tons

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:18 - ID#432130)
...Amen to your Amen!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:19 - ID#431200)
John Disney Die, the Beloved Country by Jim Peron
I read somewhere that you live in S.A. since 1988.Is this article saying the truth or is biased?Thanks. Die, the Beloved Country by Jim Peron

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:22 - ID#287114)
James & Jack
Since the price of gold has not shown any strength in the past year, I have been doing a double take of the gold mines. They presently are quite depressed and there is money to be made if the price of gold were to rise. As the dow has continually crashed upwards lately and gold being bearish, I do not know how long many of the junior mines can survive.
Jack, you being the resident mine guru, how much do these mines have to get over mining cost to survive? When I read in the Northern Miner that a mine produces 1 ounce of gold at "x" number of dollars, what does that cost include? How many ounces of gold per ton make a good mine?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:27 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Gold price on April 27th: 316
Then gold began a multi-week plunge with a spike-down as low as 272 in the summer.
Gold price today: 292

Date: Mon Apr 27 1998 10:44
farfel ( @ALL...please prepare yourselves for a little delight.. ) ID#340302:

Once again, I remain EXTREMELY BULLISH on GOLD. I KNOW a short squeeze is looming just around the corner. Oh, yes, I do.

...a concerted gold short squeeze is in the works. Try and get on board before the upspike.

Gentlemen, you WILL enjoy the ride.



Cage Rattler
(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:29 - ID#33184)
I stopped reading after the first group of paragraphs regarding electricity, radio stations, television, etc. Total rubbish. I have *never* experienced any of those phenomena in the last 10 years! Prehaps it depends where you go to look - I'm sure you will find anything in any country if you are prepared to look hard enough.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:33 - ID#318142)
After seeing the movie ANTZ, I don't think I can use Amdro again on those fireants ( all soldier ants ) without some regret.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 16:58 - ID#222231)
Realistic-ly un-Realistic
What is your purpose in continually trashing F*? Why don't you trash others that have made mistakes ( especially those that have been wrong many times regarding PT & SI ) , or is that next in your sadistic thoughts? You and your ilk have managed to humiliate, put down and chase many good people from this forum. Please do not bother to answer, as I will pass over any posts made by you and others that use the same tactics, and I suggest others do the same.

Ciao Bambino

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:08 - ID#219363)
My old girlfriend in college delighted in smashing ants on the picnic table just to irritate me *grin*, she knew I hated that. I like ants too, haven't seen the movie, and I liked tearing up their homes when I was a kid, especially burning them with a manifying glass. I hear a lot of people like 'em, with chocolate.

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:09 - ID#259282)
Don't you think sometimes that market manipulations are just your government looking out for you.
Essentially they are just trying to protect the American style of life.People who could care less call this the status quo. Gold must die so that we can buy refrigeraters THAT DISPENSE ICE. God bless us each and everyone.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:10 - ID#318142)
I recently sold a house and went through the closing process, where up-to-date records had to be found on titles, insurance, taxes due, escrow accounts, bills due, etc. All of this was done by telephone, fax, computer hookups, etc, requiring current and working database systems. I commented to the lawyer at closing that with a Y2K failure between these many separate entities, the real estate market would come to a grinding halt. He agreed.

Since real estate is a major sector in financial markets and land values are a cornerstone of many investments and stocks, it won't take much to throw a wrench into local economies. If solutions aren't found in early January 2000 to minor glitches, the problems expand quickly. The effects won't be all be evident on Jan 1.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:15 - ID#318142)
Chocolate covered ants were offered to me at USAF survival to show what we might be forced to eat under really bad conditions. They are mostly protein, so...

In ANTZ, there is a case of magnifying glass incineration, as you mention. Now if we could just train ants to find gold underground.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:20 - ID#219363)
Hmm, ants mining gold, I like it. Sounds almost as good as genetically altering spiders so that they wander from house to house leaving web strands that have fiber optic characteristics. Let's put earthworms to work, hell, they shouldn't get off so easy, everybody needs to pitch in for the human Good - at least they'll get some food out of the deal.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:23 - ID#318142)
Contradictory signals
In today's market, the dollar gained against the yen, back over 117, and gold dropped. However, the long bond fell, indicating selling somewhere. The dollar goes up and the bond falls. Which market is telling the truth?

Up to a few weeks ago, the long bond rate coincided with gold movement, now it doesn't. This proves the rule of never betting your assets on just one indicator because someone may be manipulating that indicator.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:23 - ID#433172)
I remember reading your post. I didn't awnser but that does't mean much. I was hoping the DOW wouldn't bounce back so far, but here we are, it probably doesn't matter at all and I'm hoping your right about the rest. Due credit--you are right so far

Sharefin- I read your posts diligently, my living room is piled high with commodities and I'm putting in my fuel supplies now. I'm about ready. The community isn't, come that rainy day they will be after my stuff, by hook or crook. That's the only problem I can't answer, guns are not the answer so what is? Could be this "problem" was concocted by somebody who stood to gain by it and will come up with the saving answer just in time? A hilarious millenium joke.

Cage Rattler
(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:25 - ID#33184)
@larryn - dollar just dropped 60 points against yen to 117.40

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:27 - ID#252150)
Skinny@With tax loss selling coming up soon, if you even think about
buying a jr take an aspirin/valium drink or whatever & lay down until the feeling goes away. Or you could try your luck in the casino. More honest operators & better odds.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:29 - ID#252391)
To Bully Beef
Frankly, I'm in favor of the powers who be keeping gold under $300 and as a result of so doing maintaining world prosperity. If by keeping gold under $300 the stock markets can rally or stay firm its many more times better for me personnally than if gold jumps over $300 and lurges around to $350 while the world rolls over into recession/depression.

No, I have become a fan and suported or the CABAL. KEEP GOLD DOWN / trash those gold bugs / keep the GDP growing. GO AG, GO Central Bankers, GO CABAL.

PLAY with the winning team THE CABALS who traunce the gold bugs after a feeble run at the $300 line. The world is better off with a weak gold price and strong equities and so are most of you and I.

THERE is nothing but selfish benefit to gold being over $300.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:40 - ID#277302)
The BIG fish eat the small... even if they're the same species
There will be no Gold Bull, until the major producers start to unwind the thousands of tonnes of Gold they have cumulatively hedged ( shorted ) over the past 2-3 years. Until you see clear evidence of such hedge closings, you can be sure that Gold is going Like the hedge funds, these large producers were "in the know" about the downward manipulation Gold would undergo and they positioned themselves accordingly. Their massive hedges are in effect a form of insurance that protects them from a lower Gold price, ( and many of them are hedged for the next 4-5 years ) so they don't care how low the price falls, as a matter of fact they welcome a lower price because it ensures the decimation of the small and intermediate players, the minimally hedged and the junior explorers that have made significant discoveries that the Big Boys will be able to snap up for a song...and half a twirl....yes my friends, the Law of the Jungle applies EVERYWHERE.

The major producers have hedges well above US$ 400/oz, so they're not about to panic and close those positions any time soon, while the "little guys" who were caught with their pants down and are now trying to survive by hedging at these prices, are only perpetuating their miserable existence. In fact the only thing that they actually accomplish is to kill any rally in the price of Gold, as we have witnessed many times recently. The hedge funds, meanwhile, circling like vultures over the situation, also dive in during these brief "feeding frenzies" and exacerbate the degree of the slaughter....while through all this, the major perpetrators of the "original sin", laugh all the way to the bank.

lefty kiwi
(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:44 - ID#32176)
for what it is worth
I think today ( Friday already in NZ ) is a very very good day to buy GOLD

Aragorn III
(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:45 - ID#212323)
Scanning over posts...Gollum and SDRer...
Date: Thu Oct 22 1998 14:07
Gollum ( @SDRer ) ID#35571:
The biggest threat to modern civilization as we know it is anything
which would disrupt the flow of oil and the power grid. And many kinds
of disruptions can happen in a heartbeat.
Gollum, I'd submit that the disruption of oil and the power grid would be a CAUSE to bring about the biggest threat to modern civilization...the threat itself being a breakdown in DIVISION OF LABOR. I shudder at the thought...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:50 - ID#43349)
@Aragorn III
Perhaps. I on the other hand would think of the stratification of society and the division of labor being part and parcel of civilization itself. Namely, that which would be threatened.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 17:51 - ID#339274)
FWIW This morning DX Dec Contract topped out 93.98,timing
the low of gold.DM and JY are rebounding on greater volume,
if this trend persists we are going to have a higher opening in the morning.
The daily stochastics are oversold ( 7 ) ,a relief rally from 290,
DEC contract would technically bounce the price back to 295/297.
Covered and bought NEM for a quick bounce on the Yen/DM variable.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:00 - ID#390415)
Wrong or wrongly motivated
I do not mind if someone makes a prediction concerning gold market activity that turns out to be inaccurate. As long as that prediction is based on some evidence, or a suspicion or a hunch or a whim, or the rings of Saturn, that is OK. Even basing it on purely technical considerations is fine with me.

On the other hand, those of us who post on this site may have a conflict of interest in that we have holdings that could increase in value if popular expectation shifted in favor of our own investments.

To post a prediction on this site calculated to affect in some small way the popular expectation concerning gold and PM stocks is, in my opinion, unethical.

It is one thing to be wrong. To misrepresent an agenda as an honest opinion is despicable.

Say what you think, not what you want others to think.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:01 - ID#290172)
PMF re: 10/21@ 20:09 Oracle & Iridium

Well, Larry is on Steve's 'Apple Board'. Sheds some 'light' on "The Deification Of The Members" doesn't it? Ellison, Whose word is truth; Jobs, Whose word is truth...the egos are of sufficient size to support this.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:02 - ID#43349)
Well put. But I feel there are different kinds of truth. Much of what we consider truth is, as you say, a human value judgement. Many, perhaps most, human value judgements and desires are maya.

There is however the truth of what is. Whether we appreciate or not, or even percieve it, what is is.

Like it or not.

Consider it beautiful or not, ugly or not, see it or not, what is is.

Before quatumm mechanical wave collapse, ther is only the Tao. The one from which comes the many. The mutiply posibilitied what-could-be. Which it self is a part of what is. From which flows through the collapsing of cosmic wave function the unfolding of truth.

This kind of truth was before man and will be after man.

The universal truth, around which words cannot be wrapped.

Even in the act of speaking of it, I miss the point.

That which can be spoken of is not the eternal Tao.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:02 - ID#219363)
My thought, for what it's worth, is that the biggest threat to society and civilization is anything that destroys the faith that people have in one another, the bonds of trust. Civilization works well because I can walk outside my front door and not worry about having my head blown off - when that is no longer the case, when people are mis-trusting, paranoid, and afraid of one another, that's when things are bad. 10 people in a room can be in any frame of mind - they can hate one another, fight, and kill off their bothers, or they can be the closest of friends, working together to find food, provide shelter, and generally, to help one another. Stock market crashes are scary, we lose faith in the economy, we start saving back money we once invested in one another, and we all suffer. In the worst depression, the 30's, some local currencies ( established because people couldn't get the "real thing" ) were set up in such a way that you HAD to spend them, they couldn't be saved, they became worthless if they didn't trade hands in a specific amount of time - the reason was that trade couldn't happen when everyone hoarded their money, because nobody trusted they would see more money for a long time.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:10 - ID#43349)
I guess ther is a question of what IS civilizaion. Cooperative living and working together is something even the nomadic hoards of Ghengis Kahn did. Perhaps there is society and then there is civilization and then there is modern western civilizaion. Each of which is something different from the other.

Modern western civilization requires it's technology to exist. Civilizations such as the Egyptian or Mayan existed long before the modern western one, and society existed even before there was history,

When we were speaking of the threat to civilizaion, I took it to mean the threat to modern western civilization.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:11 - ID#339274)
FWIW On the surface you reasoning is correct.Except for the one
caveat,ABX and the like will be in the same boat as the ones who have bought those wonderful call options in case of a melt down.
The rush to cover when things go for naught,would be an interesting
liquidity spectacle to watch.
ABX has their stuff not mined and I would be more comfortable with NEM.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:14 - ID#261340)
Is gold going to test new lows, and why does the equity markets move
so quickly off interest rate cuts, while gold was flat and now receeding
off dollar vs the yen changes last week.? Any anwsers?

Thanks BG_A

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:24 - ID#341297)
GO Gollum--- GO Envy
You two guys are doing some real heavy duty thinking.....keep it up!!...
A person needs to read this kind of thinking now and then...sort of self evaluation.....Belive me..this is great..

Just a thought.... Chicken man...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:28 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.17. The 233 day moving average is 28.79

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:30 - ID#66144)
CHRISOPHILOS your 17:40 post appears on the mark though I doubt that have an inside
track. Its just another form of legal price fixing. Beyond that once again the power of Gov't proves its will regardless of all the good logic that is continually posted on this site.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:31 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .242. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:33 - ID#290456)
According to Lookahead charts

for HM, ABX, NEM, BMG, PDG it appears that they
have about 10% more on the downside, hitting their
short-term lows on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Also this site shows DJIA and SPX hitting a
short-term top at the same time.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:38 - ID#258142)
Bottom ( 270+ ) is in. Two heads ( or what is it, down ) we had, one more to come - this year, I believe

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:38 - ID#26793)
FRB Governor says rate cut was not done on secret information known only to Fed

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:42 - ID#26793)
LME silver news

Aragorn III
(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:53 - ID#212323)
ORCA...THANKS for posting the fine piece yesterday at 19:39.
Recommended reading for all my friends here.
Hey, Tolerant1, if you've already ploughed through that quantity of Patron, I've gotta just shake my head. But personally, I've never had it. So good you can't put it down kinda stuff?

The Third.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:54 - ID#295111)
CNBC talks down Gold - LUCKY SEVEN, but next is the EIGHT BALL.
Just listened to CNBC who said Gold and Gold Stocks which had a 58% could be short lived. They say investors are pulling out of the "DEFENSIVE" stocks; those which do good in bear markets.

However, "Spin" this time around could backfire. I think it's likely we'll see much profit taking on the DOW and money going back into Gold.

Should be the end of LUCKY SEVEN. The EIGHT BALL is next, and it's a BLACK BALL too.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:56 - ID#43349)
Talking heads
Making much of the fact that today was the seventh day in a row that the DOW ended UP. First time since the asian crises began way back when.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 18:58 - ID#254288)
skinny; thanks for the nice words, but I think you mean

John Disney or CC. ( no offense intended to either )

As for published mining company costs, they are OK to read and store in ones mental rolladex so as to compare them with what's actually happening and what is actually said.

I find in company reports that mining costs and total mining costs mean different things to different companies. It is always good to try to figure them out and then call the company to find out what they consist of.

In reading the past and present reports one can get a fair idea of the cost direction.

Past Northern Miner issues and their online weekly can help alot - it goes back about one year. Also; The Northern Miner has a disk of past issues ( I think it goes back 5 years??? ) .

For me the surest way to get costs is to include everything including taxes. This will also include interest cost, front office cost, meeting cost and legal costs and investment losses which are never included in the cost per oz costs.

If the company also produces base metals or does custom milling; profits or losses in those operations would have to be added ( if a loss ) and subtracted ( if a gain ) to get to the real total pure gold production costs.

Lets take a pure gold company with 20 million shares outstanding that earned US $6 million and produced 100,000 oz from three mines.

Say that;
Mine#1 received US $300 per oz and produced 50,000 oz
Mine#2 received US $320 per oz and produced 30,000 oz
Mine#3 received US $350 per oz and produced 20,000 oz

If the math is correct the company received an average of US $316 per oz.

If the company received payment in other currencies, a call to them will help. If the company hedges currencies another problem arises.

If they earned US $6 million and produced 100,000 oz it actally made US $60 per oz after "every cost".

In this case the company true costs are:

316-60 = US $256 per oz

With this price one can make judgements on future profits by increasing or decreasing taxes, front office expenses etc. The direction of past mining costs may allow a drop or require a rise in the $US 256 cost.

I think a method that gets into the details is safer than the 'Delta Method' of figuring earnings, where an investor says for each $100 dollar rise in the gold price this company will earn an extra 50 cents.

But both methods have their place.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:01 - ID#219363)
I totally agree. I kinda think about it like there is a "really really real truth" of the Universe, and then there are perspectives. Actually, I think the Internet is a good example. The really really real truth of the Internet is that it's complex beyond imagination. One tiny part of it used to be Clarknet up in Maryland, a wiring closet in a clean room of a barn out in the middle of a cow field. Even that little part was all complex in itself, and required people to maintain it, and various pieces of equipment running complex protocols, and it was more complex when you looked at the power supplied to the land, and the chance of the structure being hit by a bolt from a thunder cloud, and and and. All that complexity across the whole of the world makes up the Internet, and it's become so complex that we can't understand it all. I've seen traffic reports of packets across the backbones and talked about them with people who do statistical analysis of the information, and they say there are packets moving across the backbone with sources that don't exist, going to destinations that don't exist, using header formats that shouldn't work, with data that nobody can make sense of. The Internet has already become a complex system that nobody can put their mind around. Think how complex the Universe is in comparison. But then there's my mother's perspective of the Internet, her truth. Much more basic than what's really really real, to her it's just a computer screen with a mail application and a web browser. She doesn't know how it works, doesn't care, it just does. To her, the Internet consists of a few sites with Christian study material and a few family members who have email addresses. My take is, no matter how much we try, no matter what kind of paradigms we come up with to explain our world, we will never see it, because it will always have layers of complexity beyond our grasp, and we will always be my mother glaring into the Universe through human eyes.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:08 - ID#43349)
We are each much akin to a single neuron working away within a complexity which we can only dimly percieve. One wonders if the system itself ponders upon itself as a single small system within a complexity of systems.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:12 - ID#423313)
@Gollum @Envy
Ahhhh, now you've entered territory where I've done some thinking. Let us say there is truth ( little t ) and Truth ( big T ) . Truth ( big T ) is what is. trust ( little t ) is what we perceive it to be.

Now let us assume that the universe is infinite. Let us assume that it consists of interconnected systems. Then this infinite universe has an infinite number of interconnected systems. Truth ( big T ) is the whole of it, its past, its present, and its future ( not the quantum potential, but actual-that which will occur. ) Now, the human mind consists of a finite number of cells ( large #, but still finite ) and these neurons are connected through a complext web of dendrites ( extraordinarily complex, but still finite. ) Due to its finite nature, the human brain has a limited storage capacity ( as my wife constantly brings to my attention ) . So we have an infinite universe and a finite story capacity.

As the engineers here can attest to, attempting to divide this finite number by the infinite results in zero. Therefore, the human mind cannot possible grasp Truth, but only its feeble approximations. For those who are married--how close does your spouses reality match yours? The only way to have a grasp of the infinite is to be unified with it. Hence the Tao/Word cannot be accurately represented by words.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:14 - ID#43349)
Nature is a comlexity. Yet the birds and the beasts ponder not upon the workings of it. Each simply is and simply does as it is their nature to do.

Simply do.

Simply be.

So easy.

Yet very few can.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:15 - ID#290172)
Gollum re: your 18:02

Heard melodies are sweet, but those unheard
Are sweeter.
John Keats Ode on a Grecian Urn

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:24 - ID#43349)
I quite agree, except that there is no "actual-that which will occur".

If there were, we would not have free will, and the Newtonian mechanists would win their pre-destination over free-will arguement.

There is a quality inherit in the fabric of which all things are made such that if a proper assemblege is made in a proper way consciousness becomes aware. Becomes aware of it's ability to choose.

Einstein spoke of the four dimensional space time continuum. That however is just a movie reel in three dimensions. For mind and spirit to be able to so ponder, the number of dimensions must be more than four.

What is is, but can never be what will be.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:29 - ID#43349)
Keats had vision.

Most people have at some point in their life, wonder where they will go when they die.

Many people have wondered where did they come from before they were born.

Not so many wonder where are they now.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:29 - ID#295111)
@Aragorn III & @Orca 19:39 post yesterday
Thanks for pointing it out, been too busy to check out past posts.

Must say I agree with everything Anne Williamson says.
She took the words right out of my mouth.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:33 - ID#219363)
Simply BE, indeed. That used to be my .sig file *grin*. I guess the message of the day is - dance the mysterious dance.

Aragorn III
(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:36 - ID#212323)
Tantalus Rex...
Jeeeeeeeeeze, TR, that was a huge article. So, your mouth must also be...? : )
Pardon the jest at your expense. It's been a long day.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:37 - ID#423313)
I have found your discovery of "free agency" or choice within quantum mechanics to be fascinating. If one were to think of the future in the Newtonian sense of being predetermined, then indeed there is the denial of free-will. It's how the pre-destination crowd gets wrapped around the axel.

Hume went so far as to say that the future is utterly unpredictable ( and he made that statement quite a bit before quantum mechanics was the new reality ) . I think our personal experience would attest to the future having some probabilities attached to it.

Instead of viewing the "actual future" as being predetermined ( and thus negating free will ) I see the future as an expression of free will in action. Thus free will operates within the probabilities of the quantum moment to influence the outcome.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:37 - ID#350145)
i do not know what we can or cannot understand. i do however think it is the manifest destiny of the human species to evolve and as such try to understand; and as such i am willing to replace anything with something more sophisticated; and the only truth which i have found that may be infinite is compassion. ironic that that concept is the exact opposite of evolution - survival of the fittest. at the highest levels of physics they talk about the aesthetics of an equation. i always thought that contradiction ( evolution vs compassion ) had a certain poetry about it.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:38 - ID#43349)
Yes. Dance the mysterious dance.

Like a candle flame flickering in the wind.

Or a ripple upon the water.

We are not the wick nor the wax, we are the flame.

Process, not substance.

The wave, not the water.

And when we are done we go the same place our fist does when we open our hand.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:39 - ID#401460)
30 YR Bond

What is wrong with this picture, after the Fed just dropped the discount rate? And with Gold falling?^TYX&d=5d


(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:40 - ID#43349)
That is very astute.

The quantuum moment.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:43 - ID#43349)
Perhaps Hume should have said that the future, though unpredictable, is malleable in the moment.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:44 - ID#423313)
All right, Gollum. Now, you've got me repeatedly opening and closing my hand ( how am I going to sleep tonite! ) . Next I'm going to be listening Grecian urns and thinking of compassion as being the ultimate expression of survival of the fittest.

There's something about a thread where you get Bibles, beans, bullets, and Keats all in the same place. Not to mention the Dancing Wu Li Masters.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:46 - ID#333126)
more Japanese banks to go ask for bailouts

first one that did triggered a rise in the Nikkei. wonder whether these 5 will have any effect or not...

chicken-man: i need tix for the december bond train. will it slow down so i can get aboard? :- ) how are you doing with the november one?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:46 - ID#187109)
I have been watching this silver thing VERY closely this week. It has done little but move sideways. I have watched a pattern form and it is more recognizable on Bohl charts than any others I use.....including my expensive software programs. Dec Silver is goin' sideways with a veeeeeeeery small ( BEARISH ) descending triangle.......uh huh........I know, I know......wait and buy ( or sell ) the breakout..................If'n I was to make a prediction ( and I ain't ) I would say that Friday and/or next week will be baaaaaaaaad news for the bullage camp. Tick-tock, tick-tock........the silver mouse fell offa the clock.............BONK! Silver to 4.50 and then...............??

Here is a little info on the PM's today.
they mention silver having a bearish tone too...............combine techs w/ funnymentals and ya gotta winner......... ( ? ) .

kuston - I verily much miss D.A. also........ He doesn't go in for the crap that gets spewed here sometimes...........nope.

go padres!!!!'s over EB......get over it.............. ( damn yankees ) .......

go golf ( ing ) ! prepare for dark rum and warm radiant Caribbean sun.........ohmy!.........the ships a sail on the shore of......................c'mon little buddy...............OK skipper..........point me to the bar.............and the roulette wheel.......................and where is that cute pit boss at the crap table............the one that looks like mary ann.....................easy little some of this coconut pie..............and drink deeply from this rum glass..............and puff this here peace pipe..................aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh...........thanks skipper {:- )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:47 - ID#43349)
As you sit clasping and unclasping listen closely and you may hear one hand clapping.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:48 - ID#295111)
@Silverbaron - Cameco and the KUMTOR GOLD MINE
In case, you're still analysing CCJ, The KUMTOR mine just producted it's 1st 1Million ounces of gold and in a short time.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:48 - ID#423313)
"The future is malleable in the moment."

Beautiful, that one will make my quote list! Yes, that resonates for me. I think that is a key, the future is indeed malleable in the moment.

Aragorn III
(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:50 - ID#212323)
Imrahil and Gollum
It is good to see such fine thinking from the Prince of Dol Amroth. You are certainly worthy of your post.
And who'd have ever guessed that a log floating upstream would be the source of equally fine expression? Gollum, you're the man!, er, whatever you've become...

Outta here for now...

got hunger.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:51 - ID#350145)
you said it well envy
my analogy: we are as fish on the bottom of a very deep ocean that come across a beer can. with just that information we are to attempt to understand San Francisco. but they always said the einstien seemed to understand more than he had information to understand. in his later years he said he just sort of got it one day ( relativity ) . maybe the universe is a hologram and we do have a connection to understand we don't understand.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 19:57 - ID#43349)
One bank asking for bailout and the Nikkei doth rise.

Five banks asking gives pause for thought.

Twenty banks asking and bew fears arise.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:01 - ID#287114)
Thanks for the informative comeback.
Argentina Gold Corp. ARP.V
Last $2.70 2.904.250 shares +38.5% 950 trades
Whats up

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:02 - ID#219363)
@Gollum, Imrahil, Mole
It's been beautiful *smile*, liked those poetic moves Gollum. I'm off.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:03 - ID#43349)
What you say is true.

We may not know or even be able to know the meaning of a used, crumpled and discarded beer can stumbled upon.

Perhaps the beauty of it is not so much the can, but rather the possibility of San Francisco.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:04 - ID#288295)
Tantalus Rex @ CCJ

Thanks, but I really liked the look of the bottom on the Cameco chart, so I bought a few hundred shares yesterday ( I owned it a couple years ago at twice the price ) .

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:06 - ID#423313)
@Third in the House of Aragorn, smeagol, and et al
Thanks for the activation of the synapses, ( especially after a long day of work ) . I'm off to veg in front of X-files the Movie.

PS. NPR announced tonite that more Japanese banks would be requesting bailouts in groups so that none of them would lose face alone. I think today's five are just the beginning. I hope $250 billion is enough.

Hasta la manana, chatos!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:08 - ID#333126)
we shall soon see how the Japanese market reacts to this tidbit of news.

i think we shall soon see the 19 biggest banks in Japan lining up at the handout window .........

this is meant to be bullish? what is wrong with this picture?

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:10 - ID#295111)
Rumor of the day according to FLECKENSTEIN
Rumor of the Day
I have heard from a couple of pretty good sources that prior to the last Fed easing, several institutions with D.E. Shaw problems - and D.E. Shaw itself - were informed of the impending rate reductions. This fits neatly with my theory that the Fed did what it did to bail out Bankers Trust. SO maybe it wasn't Bankers Trust, but nevertheless some institution with a big equity-derivative book was given the nod ahead of time so it could prepare itself.

While everyone might be glad that the market rallied, if in fact what I just described is true, those of you who sold into that rally were ripped off by some institution that got the heads up. When the Fed does its little cloak-and-dagger maneuvers, somebody takes it on the chin. It isn't right and it won't work in the long run, but that is what we are dealing with - a rigged stock market. So keep that in perspective.

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:12 - ID#295111)
Bull-bear does flip-flop...

In the psychological department, investor intelligence came out with its numbers yesterday. The number of investment advisory bulls, which had been low at the end of September - around 36 percent - now are up to 44 percent. The bear numbers, which were as high as 46 percent, now are down to about 40 percent. My guess is that by next week, the number will have flipped even further. By then the market really will have done its job and convinced all the nouveau bears to flip back to bulls. That is what a bear market rally is all about: convincing everyone that it isn't really a bear market but that it is a just the start of a new bull market.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:13 - ID#187109)
is my rum drink half empty or half full............


think I'll go ask the bartender...

and I will constantly open and close my hands.................around a chilly brewski that is.

am I really me or am I a figment of that bikini clad girls imagination...........BARTENDER!! ponder lifes infinite queries.......hmmmmm

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:13 - ID#190411)
Metaphysics R youse.
Mundane is me....

I get daily JSE results from Business Day ( South Africa ) . I recommend it to SA ADR holders.
Today, some results: Rand @ 5.7125/USD

JSE close ( US close )
Harmony ( HGMCY ) 4.85 ( 4.75 )
St Helena ( SGOLY ) 3.24 ( 3.25 )
Randgold ( RANGY ) 0.814 ( 0.75 )
Durban Dp ( DROOY ) 3.064 ( 2.78 )
Anglogold ( AU ) 49.75 ( 24.63 )

I own all except Durban Deeps. As you see, there are some disparities.
It seems that SGOLY, HGMCY, RANGY ADR's are 1:1. The AU ADRs are obviously not at 1:1. What is the ratio? Is RANGY undervalued in the US market?
Is there a site for ADR ratios?

Fine off topic musings, gentlemen.
I know why I sent some money to help support this site. Perhaps you can also.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:14 - ID#267255)
lookahead charts
SilverBaron, do you have any personal "history" of accuracy with these forecasting models? The site boasts a 95% accuracy rate? Any truth to it, to the best of your knowledge?

Tantalus Rex
(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:15 - ID#295111)
One last FLECKENSTEIN flamethrower
As I see it

A lot of people are saying that it is going to be 1990 again and the Fed is going to save the day. I would suggest that it is more like 1990 in Tokyo, with the implication being that stocks are going a lot lower instead of higher.

Along that line, while the Fed has reduced interest rates and lowered borrowing costs, it hasn't created capital. It is going to take quite a long time to create substantial new capital in the banking system. The banks are going to have to do some conservative things like put on Treasury carry trades. It is going to take time to build up capital and get the nerve to take some risks again. As I have poited out repeatedly over the last couple of years, the banks are run by sheep: They are always in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Lower interest rates are not a panacea; it takes time for lower rates to affect the economy. Stocks were a lot cheaper in 1990 and it was much easier to get the party going. Additionally, the entire U.S. population didn't have its wealth in the stock market. People hadn't yet begun the wholesale transfer of all their eggs into the stock market basket. Now people are left with putting their incremental cash flow into equities, which is a totally different proposition. EVERYONE IS ALREADY LONG AND IN NEED OF HIGHER PRICES AS OPPOSED TO ROOTING FOR A DIP TO BUY.

To make the analogy that we are in 1990 all over again is completely wrong. While a couple of things are similar, there are too many areas that are dissimilar. This analogy will not work. I think that every Fed governor has been out flapping his jaws, talking about why there isn't going to be a recession and that they don't see a catastrophe, only a small slowdown. Anyway these guys are working their jaws overtime pontificating on how everything is going to be OK. At least when things unravel, it will be clear that the Fed didn't have the slightest idea of what was really happening.

However they are getting an "A" in market manipulation.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:21 - ID#43349)
Blessed are those that buy a round for the house.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:23 - ID#386245)
G'morning all
Good quality stuff the last few hours. Maestro Gollum leading an excellent orchestra.
I mentioned a few days ago that the pricks ( not the political kind ) in the balloon would be sealed until after mid-term elections and that gold would correct. IMHO, both are proceeding according to the puppet masters' plans. Once the elections are over, more air will be allowed out of the bubble and gold 'allowed' to do its thing. What its thing is, is for each of you to decide.
Aussie gold shares off in early trade while paper up--a mirror of last nights trade.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:23 - ID#288295)

Nope - I just found the site a couple of days ago and started posting it to Kitco. I'll be watching it closely next week to see if the buying opportunity at around XAU 65 emerges.

That scenario fits with almost everything else ( Elliott waves, cycles, etc. ) I see for the intermediate term - XAU at about 65, gold at about $290 or a little lower.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:24 - ID#350145)
zinc and other base metals
i have been reading that zinc looks strong for the future and nickle looks terrible. anyone have any insight on these or other metals. i have been buying some zinc plays and would like to double check. what about copper?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:30 - ID#43349)
Away to tend to other things

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:32 - ID#28882)
@jims re your 17:29 - Rigging the gold markets

Remarkable statement. The world is better off with gold under 300 so therefore let's support those - the cabal - who rig the market to keep it there. Ignore the fundamentals, and just close our eyes and hope everything will turn out warm and fuzzy. Of course, the inventory that is being sold short will last forever and inflation, well, the Cabal's sophisticated computer models will ensure that this is a thing of the past. Trust them, they appear to know what they're doing, eh? Now _that_ seems to be a prudent investment strategy!

sam_A ( is back! )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:35 - ID#288295)

Princeton Economics metals commentary says zinc is very hot, copper near its final bottom. I have no idea why that would be the case, as both are very sensitive to the industrial and economic situation.

If you're thinking about a copper producer that will really rocket if the price turns around - look at a long-term ( multi-year ) chart for O'Okiep Copper ( symbol OKP ) , a South African company. Man, what a steal! ( unless we have a depression, in which case you don't want to own any copper producers ) ( ;^ ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:52 - ID#257351)
Now that Gunrunner and RJ have quieted down some ..
I'd like to express, in general terms, my bad experience with Monex. I am wondering if GR had a problem similar to mine so I'll take the plunge and get humble for your edification.

I called Monex to arrange an account. Got into an account and was offered to use margin. It was quite a good sales job I must say, but I was a push over anyway; a newbie investor who thought he was smarter than the market ( of which Monex claims to be a market maker, one side of their operation betting actively ) .

My particular agent was a particularly poor advisor. Almost all of his calls were wrong. I made a few dollars once by going against his advice. The long and te short of it is tat I lost ALOT of money and ganed alot of humility.

RJ may be a cunning and crafty metals trader. I wouldn't know. What I do know is that I am a naive, inept and uninformed person who lost alot of money trading on the advise of someone at Monex who didn't do any better than me in the short term. A painful and expensive lesson.

I might add that they changed the spreads on me twice because of increased volatility which made it even harder to win back on small price movements.

Of course if Monex is willing to send me a check for my losses then we could forget all about it, let bygones be and etc. But I doubt that would be offered. Moral hazard and all that.

Moral: do alot of imaginary trading following a system you work up until you feel very comfortable with your ability to trade. And do not listean to a broker, they could not care less they just want to keep you on the string.

Stay away from margin unless you are a GIANT of a winner all the time.

It was little solstice to recall that Sir Isaac Newton lost his fortune in te South Sea Bubble. I didn't loose that much, but it was a fortune to me.

Sign me 'stupid'.

And, please, no jokes from EB or the others of you folks who are successful traders. If you kick me when I'm down you may regret it when you are looking for mercy later.

I have put this here to debunk the myth that Monex is nothing but a hothouse of prudent metal advice and to break the silence for those of you who have had similar experiences with them or other brokers.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 20:55 - ID#267255)
It will indeed be interesting to see if these forecasts hold water, or Gold. Although not much substantive change has ocurred on the global financial scope in the last month, market psychology sure has changed.

We shall watch this market together, yes?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:02 - ID#288295)
mole & Duke

The Elliott Wave commentary on the subscriber
services part of this site has something to say
about the copper situation.

Check out the daily and weekly cycles forecast on
gold and silver on the same site. It looks like the gold dip is at hand, no silver dip in sight on his charts.

user: hixson
password: thmetal

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:02 - ID#25257)
Tight lips
I think it was Flip Wilson who once said, "Tight lips don't sink ships." At least some of the wisest men I ever knew were men of few words--certainly they knew when to shut up and never spread their stupidity on every billboard. If you're an expert like Buffett, you don't need to state your case. If you're an educated fool, shut up!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:02 - ID#43460)
Free Kiwi et al
Free Kiwi: That was a masterful graph you published at the unholy hour of 4:17 a.m. today. ( Either you are truly a Kiwi or you are a night owl! ) I believe that your one jpg picture is worth thousands of words. One thing which stands out well so one can easily see it intuitively is the concept of the sucker rally one sees whereby the price stalls at +/- 80% of the top before finally falling off the cliff. Free Kiwi's Graph:

All: Lots of predictions here there and yonder so I'll add one. They finally got in a shipment of chicken livers at my noontime hangout today. The salesgirl asked me if I wanted 6 or 12 so I said 6. She then put 14 wonderfully brown, crispy chicken livers in the bag, charging me for 6 as they were smaller than average. I then took them to the park and ate them all. They signify a bag of mining and PM stocks which are smaller in price than they were just 12 weeks ago.

This scenerio demonstrates a false confidence in the stability of the market with a general lack of foresight and an overoptimistic viewpoint for the future. This is typical of my investment outlook.

The only saving point here is that I consumed 20 ounces of pink grapefruit punch and 2 cherry Rolaids with them, forestalling heartburn except for a warm glow which has lasted most of the day. The punch ( which signifies silver ) makes the livers easier to wash down and Rolaids ( a small amount of gold? ) sweetens the stomach, making its inevitable burps and belches tolerable.

I'm not sure of the significance of the bag or sweet/hot pepper potato chips I munched along with everything else. But they weren't as hot as usual. I wonder if this signifies gold mutual funds, which haven't done as well as my stocks? FWIW.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:07 - ID#288295)

Just think of all that cholesterol in the chicken livers as derivatives. You should feel much better now, since nothing ever happens to derivatives. ( ;^ ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:07 - ID#257312)
Nick 20:23

And don't forget the prediction of 3-2-5 by 11/11, by gogold. He was correct when he called for it the first time.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:13 - ID#430203)
The incredible dumbness of me-ing
I think you probably should forget $325 by 11/11/98.

I know I have.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:14 - ID#348129)
@ "it lowered PeopleSoft Inc. to near-term accumulate from a near-term buy."
What the hell does this mean??? Accumulate/Buy - same f-ing thing.
Wall street becoming idiot street.......

Prudential Securities cut Peoplesoft Inc. ( PSFT ) to a hold from an accumulate. The company reported third quarter earnings of $0.17 per share versus $0.11 the prior year. Shares were off 6 1/4 at 19 .

"Merrill Lynch said Wednesday it lowered PeopleSoft Inc. to near-term accumulate from a near-term buy."

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:14 - ID#340262)

Are we about to see some of those really wild gyrations that we saw recently in Japan with the indexes up 1000 pts one day and down a 1000 pts the next ? - It seems that we have a hole new ball game in the equities markets characterized by astonishing volatility both up and done. -moves that under normal conditions would take 6 to 9 months are being made in weeks - How long can this go on before the average conservative investor gets scared out of the market ? - I bet that a lot of them after this current run up are saying I better get out while I have the chance. -

There appears to be a desperate attempt by world monetary officials to drive these markets higher and higher, Will restrictions on short sales in most ASIAN markets be coming to a market near you. - When the game goes against the house we change the rules real fast we don't want any non establishment big winners - cjk -

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:18 - ID#243420)
Surviving the Y2k collapse
I highly recommend a listen to today's Chuck Harder program on Real Audio.>
The 3 hour program repeats throughout the day. Today's guest is disaster survival expert Ted Wright.
He discusses what is likely to happen, day by day, as Y2K unfolds. He explains the likely reactions of people the first twenty four hours, the first five days, the sixth through the tenth day. I have been following y2k, Gary North, and the Great Fin of Sharing ( sharefin ) for over a year now, and yet this presentation is by far the most ominous scenario.
I believe the program will begin a new repeat at 10 PM Central Time.
Wright believes 25 to 30 % of the population will die by the end of the
tenth day, and 50% by the end of day 30. You can order the tape if you
can't record it off the net.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:19 - ID#401460)

I think I am going to sell everything the next time Gold hits $400+.

Let's try that question again, Do you think the bottom is in or not for Gold?


(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:19 - ID#288295)

I'm getting just the opposite picture from the sheeple around me......although they were a little nervous about the 20% decline that showed up in their retirement fund accounts, the latest runup has reinforced their belief that the market will always come back.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:21 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron, not to worry
Chicken livers have been so scarce around here I've been having to make do with brocholli, cabbage, onions and oatmeal. A little cholesterol is needed every now and then to keep up the ole hormones.

BTW, how do I get rid of the cookie my computer ate when I tried your password on the gold and silver weekly graphs? Now your site thinks I'm you!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:27 - ID#288295)

No worries - I received permission from the marketprojections site to broadcast the username and password for the 2 wk free trial period. I suppose that hundreds of stations now have the same cookie - just tried again and had no problem accessing the site.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:28 - ID#370218) least you braved the audience with the reality...
Opinions on market direction should change on a dime if circumstances dictate.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:29 - ID#187109)
I find it hard to joke about losses.......been there done............ ( you know the deal ) ...

I would not ever knock Monex myself......even if I lost a bundle..............I only blame myself for my losses.

Monex a VERY respectable company and have MANY HAPPY crients.......I am not one of their crients btw. I am, however, a friend of RJ and I have spoken to him on the phone MANY times. We have even done biz together outside of kitco. I would do 'battle' with him by my side ANYDAY/ANYWHERE. If you want to trade at Monex and use leverage as a vehicle I would ONLY trade with RJ and I would do MY OWN HOMEWORK. I find that this way you have only ONE person to blame for your losses......OR YOUR GAINS. TRADING IS TOUGH AND ONLY THE TOUGH SHOULD TRADE. IT AIN'T FOR THE WEAK-KNEED INDIVIDUALS OR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT DONE SUCCESSFUL PAPER TRADING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. PROS LIKE APH AND OTHERS OUT THERE WILL EAT YOU FOR LUNCH, TAKE A LITTLE SIESTA, AND GET READY TO EAT MORE FROM YOUR ROTTING CARCASS. COUNT ON IT!!!!!

MONEX is the place to be for some of the best prices.......PERIOD. Check it out.

Now, get out there and carry on soldier!!!! And give me fifty push ups for saying I would joke at someone elses misfortune. I may call you unprepared but I would never laugh at you.......uh uh. But I would laugh at weenies like golden prophet............... ( where is he anyway? ) ......hmmmmmm.

And I have taken my fair share of lumps in this game we call betcha. I've been thumped GOOD. get thumped if I don't clean the kitchen


(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:30 - ID#30345)
I think the bottom is in. 278. Even the CB selling all those old gold coins for melt thinks they will get that much if they dump it all in a bolus.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:31 - ID#30345)
@silver baron

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:31 - ID#257312)
Nick--Re My 21:07

Doh! You may disregard that post!: ) )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:31 - ID#288295)

If gold gets back to $400 you won't have a chance to sell at that level - with all the built-up short positions, the price will pass $400 like a rocket. Even ABX will have to cover at $400.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:32 - ID#252150)
Chriophilos@You're right, the universe is unfolding as it should for those
in the know. The rest of us will have to trust our TA.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:33 - ID#187109)
zero sum game
remember that for every loser there is someone on the other side of the coin...........grinning cheshirelike...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:33 - ID#287114)
I myself being Kitcos only Y2k Dissenter , in order to keep the masses all hyped up, it is nessesary for me to post now and then that.
Y2k will turn out to be a bunch of overated Crap.

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:38 - ID#341297)
ravenfire @ quotes
I use Quotewatch ( sorry,I tried 3 times to make an URL out of that ,and I deleted it three times..dang machines anyway! ) thu and you will find options....the #'s quoted are in percentages of one...i.e,1/64 = calls and puts are traded in 64ths...bonds in the futures market are traded in 32nds...why....who knows..or for that matter who cares!!..that's the way it is..
Bought some 122's @ 11 and some123's @ 19....that's 64th's...still have my 30 - 128's,40 - 127's and those dang lottos 50 @ 126...going to be a very interesting day for me tommorrow

Note: that price on quotewatch is for the preceeding day...

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:46 - ID#257312)
Nikkei Update

Just swooned 400 points after strong start. Now down 100+.^N225&d=1d

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:47 - ID#252150)
Near-term accumulate=a gutless anal-yst who screwed up yet another reco
but in many cases they are so clueless that it could be taken as a buy because it's already down 50%.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:48 - ID#373403)
The reality is that we in the official sector have important roles to play, but the primary responsibility rests with the private sector. Private firms have the obligation to fix this problem. They must maintain Year 2000 as a top management priority, or quickly raise it to that level, if needed. At these various meetings, I was all too frequently met by the technicians asking me to help them to get senior management involved in solving this problem. Senior managers in internationally active firms and institutions must give sufficient attention to ensure that their firms are ready for the century date change.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:49 - ID#373403)
Federal Reserve Board

Remarks by Governor Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
At a meeting of Women in Housing and Finance, Washington, D.C.
October 22, 1998

The reality is that we in the official sector have important roles to play, but the primary responsibility rests with the private sector. Private firms have the obligation to fix this problem. They must maintain Year 2000 as a top management priority, or quickly raise it to that level, if needed. At these various meetings, I was all too frequently met by the technicians asking me to help them to get senior management involved in solving this problem. Senior managers in internationally active firms and institutions must give sufficient attention to ensure that their firms are ready for the century date change.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:51 - ID#401460)

Ok, OK, ...... I will wait till $500!


(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:52 - ID#252150)
gogold@Another huge ego who flew too close to the sun & is now crashing
back to earth with tattered & crisp wings.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:53 - ID#203137)
strange times alright
Gold down at 292.70 12 noon Sydney time. But Normandy Mining our biggest Gold producer in OZ is up % cents to $1.45 on good volume. strange??

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:54 - ID#43460)
Silverbaron, skinny and worrywarts
Silverbaron, thanks. My conscience is assuaged.

Skinny, you're not the only dissenter. I've thought y2k was overrated for some time.

All the y2k worrywarts, here is something really big to worry over:

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:55 - ID#252150)
Skinny@I was a Y2K disaster dissenter, way before you ever posted

(Thu Oct 22 1998 21:56 - ID#401460)
Japan Banks Need $- don't we all!

Japan banks need public funds fast--BOJ's Fujisawa

TOKYO, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Sakuya Fujiwara said on Thursday that Japanese banks needed large amounts of public funds quickly to shore up their capital bases.

``I believe that the first consideration should be swift and large-scale injections of public funds to strengthen the capital foundation of the financial sector and remove doubts in the markets,'' Fujiwara said...........


(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:07 - ID#287114)
James... Gagnrad
Well I feel better now.
That makes 3 of us.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:09 - ID#45173)
@James and skinny
It is not surprising to find contrarians taking a contracrian view. But what exactly is it you are skeptical about? I have seen a range of predictions here from mild disruption to the End of the World. Seems like you guys are expecting an event that's on the low end of the impact scale. No?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:11 - ID#252150)
Japan's debt is only 120% of their GDP.
Can they make it to 200%, & if so what would the JY be worth?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:12 - ID#413109)
Date: Thu Oct 22 1998 21:33
skinny ( Y2k ) ID#287114:

A few words, like how did you come to that conclusion, to try to
convince me, as I'm putting far too much time and energy into this
Please make sure that those words are backed up by some
visible facts- OPINIONS we all have!!!

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:13 - ID#300202)
Y2k Compliancy
Plenty of local food, Nova Scotia Power Y2K compliant, communication systems compliant, medical systems compliant. Fed Police terminating on- guard status 15 MAR. Blah, Blah. Self perpetuating gloomers/doomers cud cause minor probs. Our Banks will be compliant. Our Emergency Measures Org has things well in hand. So is the way of the DAO.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:17 - ID#287114)
I take it that makes 4 of us.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:18 - ID#350145)
silverbaron re copper
thanks. i have no idea however, where to find info on so. african co's. i would love to look it up if anyone can give direction. by the way have you noticed agentina gold. smoking. i saw there last drill results and they looked too good to be true, so i didn't buy. guess they were true.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:19 - ID#252150)
EJ@I was skeptical from the first time I read Gary North's alarmist bs.
Too many individuals who are actually responsible for the screwup that will ensue are now trying to make huge profits out of it. In order for the consultants to charge their exorbitant rates, it helps to scare people sh!tless. And don't ever discount all the graft that is paid out in different forms. Are you aware that GM is already Y2K compliant?

Taking the wife for chinese food.

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:22 - ID#341297)
longj @ coin melt
IMHO the reason that old gold coins are melted is to destroy the country of origin....some of that "old gold" probably has been melted many times...each time the country that minted them marks were that would make the "trail" real hard to follow as gold moves from one CB to another CB..

Just a thought..Chicken man...

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:26 - ID#71231)
A word about bond situation
Spreads have narrowed slightly but the overall bond market is making a week's move up and down every other day. The Fed's bond traders are probably on the verge of a nervous breakdown. I have never seen the Fed rates move so much in such a short space of time.

Another bond discussion

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:30 - ID#45173)
The reason the Nikkei is down today
Nomura to cut 2,000 jobs but London spared

Thursday, October 22, 1998 Published at 16:10 GMT 17:10 UK

Business: The Company File

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:34 - ID#300202)
Even goldbugs r non gold believers. This is an End of the world ( As we know it site ) & I fell fine. Sounds like a gud song title. Gloomers wil fite to the death that we r doomed. Methinks we r headin' into a Golden Age ( weak attempt at sounding positive ) .

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:35 - ID#341297)
mole @ SA company info
Found this once when I was down at the beach surfing:
That will put you on Randgolds page...easy to surf from there..

Just a thought...Chicken man...

Charles Keeling
(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:36 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: Manipulation
We have watched the WJC administration manipulate the
markets ever since the Mexico bailouts. This manipulation
goes on and on aided and abetted by RR & AG.

WJC ran on a platform of: "it's the economy stupid". He came
in ready to manipulate; and manipulate he did.

The Mexico "bailout" was NEVER paid back. It was
rolled over into another loan that is still held by a US bank.
This bank knows full well that the US Government will bail
it out if, and when, Mexico defaults. This bank has no fear
about the final outcome. They have the guarantee of the
present administration that they will NOT lose under any
circumstances. Bad loans are underwritten by the US
Government who use US tax payers dollars to further
their own personal and selfish goals. This strategy
perpetuates additional, ongoing bad loans by Banks &
other financial institutions who have "no fear". The dumb
US taxpayer will always be there to pay the taxes needed to
bail out those who make bad "politically correct" global
loans that perpetuate the myth of a global economy and
the NWO that will be a windfall for all politicians.

All of the assets of the IMF are at the disposal of those who
lend unwisely to third world countries in emerging markets.

The WJC/RR slush fund is also at the disposal of those who
are foolish enough to make "politically correct" loans that will
benefit the global prospects of the NWO.

For years now we have seen the "bubble" equities market
propped up by the purchase of S & P futures by those who
have the power to draw the check on the black budget
slush fund. For the last few months we have seen GOLD
pushed down and held down by FED manipulation while
this same FED extolls the virtues of a free market to emerging

Say one thing; and do something entirely different. Who is
the master of this strategy? It all comes from the top man in
this new PARADIGM: WJC.

WJC, RR, & AG are walking a financial tightrope where one
slight miscue could end in depression, inflation or war.

Today this tightrope walk is continued, out of necessity, in
order to allow all of the hedge funds to unwind their
positions without a catastrophic collapse of the entire financial
structure What a sweet deal: Borrow GOLD at .01%; sell
on the open market, and buy Russian debt at 40%. And--
not to worry---the US Government favors both sides of the

So, we see the IMF funds replenished by 18 billion. We see
Hedge Funds bailed out under the management of the Fed.
Wall Street is still supported by frequent purchase's of futures,
and GOLD futures are shorted anytime GOLD reaches 300
in order to facilitate hedge fund covering.

IMHO, this disregard for the rights of all to an equities market
that is free from manipulation is too high a price to pay for the
ambitions of one politician who is now a disgraced lame duck.

I say: IMPEACH, INDICT, CONVICT. Let us rid ourselves
of this corrupt politician who would sell us all out to further his
own blind ambition.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:41 - ID#411271)
Just now had the chance to catch up on posting. Many thanks for the metaphysics
In my life ( too ) there is a release of concern over the perpetual fate of
gold and I am left to count the blessings of the eternal.
My options now are all way into 99 & gold shall have its day, meanwhile it is time to concentrate on my relationship God and building
up spiritual strength.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:42 - ID#45173)
Vulnerable market (tell us something we don't already know)
"The market is adjusting to the realization that earnings growth will be about 5% or less the next several quarters. A crash or bear market is unlikely until assumptions about long-term profit growth or interest rates change dramatically, however. That hasn't happened yet, but turmoil in Asia and slower U.S. profit growth means the market's gains will be limited to earnings growth, because the price/earnings multiple isn't likely to expand further.

"The momentum continues partly based on fear - of missing out. But the action in the Nasdaq smells of speculative excess already. Bad news is being ignored as now all the good news is being priced in. This includes the belief rates are heading lower, global economies are stabilizing, impeachment is a non-issue, and commodity type prices are firming ( semiconductors, oil, chemicals, etc. )

"Unfortunately, this makes the market vulnerable once the realization hits that the the "goldilocks" economy is gone. It is no longer no inflation with strong profit growth. Instead, it is no inflation with no profit growth."

The kick is still there from the typical earnings season boost as most companies beat earnings expectations. However, bad news could upset sentiment quickly. Unless the U.S. economy picks up and so does the profit outlook, the risk/reward ratio on an S&P trading at over 27 times earnings with no earnings growth is cause for concern.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:44 - ID#401460)
Quamtum Leap Physicists make a quantum leap

Way beyond sex change operations and genetic engineering, the quantum state of one entity could be transported to another entity.
California Institute of Technology

What Kimbles team did was create two entangled light beams  streams of photons. Photons, the basic unit of light, sometimes act like particles and sometimes like waves. They used these two entangled beams to carry information about the quantum state of a third beam. The first two beams were destroyed in the process, but the third successfully transmitted its properties over a distance of about a yard, Kimbles team reported in the journal Science. Double Talk,........ whoops a slip of the tongue, the Fed is worried!


Any body else notice how much more friendlier MSNBC is these days...Justice dept.?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:47 - ID#401460)
The Fed is worried!

Double Talk,........ whoops a slip of the tongue, the Fed is worried!

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Governor Roger Ferguson said on Thursday that U.S. credit conditions had tightened, but there was no evidence of a credit crunch.

Asked whether conditions in U.S. financial markets had settled down since the Fed cut short-term interest rates last week, its second such cut in less than three weeks, he replied: ``I haven't seen it yet.''

``You can't have an unemployment rate at 4.6 ( percent ) and not describe that as tight,'' he said.
``It certainly indicated we are concerned about the U.S. economy. We are watching it very closely,'' Rivlin told reporters after a speech at the State University of New York.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:51 - ID#287114)
Flew into Nova few years back to look at Lobster boats,always liked the style, made for rough water.
At one factory the whole staff shut down to chat with me, all 7 of em,
still shaking my head.
I will bet the boat they are y2k ready.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:53 - ID#300202)
New World Order
Impossible Amidst Chaotic Peoples ( Kitco expression ) . Doin' better at da moment with present system. A NWO cud not survive. Military/Police Feds would not co-op. Up to da gloomers to prove. ( aside from biblical references ) which BTW - Greek- "walking on water" meant "walking by the water". Go ahead. Attack!!!! You have full rights to doom & gloom. dig in ur heels!!!!!! Will humble myself shud I be one of the 50% to die.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:54 - ID#350145)
thanks chicken man
i bookmarked it. the co silverbaron was speaking of is on the american exch. i found it. i will say this. these are certainly interesting times.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 22:56 - ID#71231)
More about bonds
Nomura Bond position unravelling - Yes, they hedged by shorting long bonds.

The more you try the harder it gets: the more you sell ( to unwind the loosing position ) , the worse the remaining value on your books, if the sale was forced, you may have knocked down the value of your remaining portfolio - thus bringing you back to the same situation.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:00 - ID#401460)
Here we go again!

Bonds Down interst rates Up
Mark Down ( this is the problem ) see below*
Dollar Up
Commodities Up
Gold Up
Oil Even
S&P Futures Down

Thursday October 22, 3:07 am Eastern Time

Left-leaning Germans may give dollar new lift-dealers

NEW YORK, Oct 21 ( Reuters ) - The dollar may extend gains versus the mark as U.S. currency dealers worry Germany's newly elected government could veer to the left, having distanced itself somewhat from some of its more pro-business campaign promises before inauguration day.

This may be indirectly affecting Gold.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:06 - ID#300202)
Can identify with ur personal experience. If da doomers are correct, have 250 ft wf on da ocean complete with scallops/lobsters. don't have a boat yet ( unless Y2K causes a shortage thereof ) -DON'T THINK SO-BUT: Y@K may cause a Vit C shortage-my raspberries may take care of it. got elec/heat/fish/Vit Sea. c'mom guys----Let's heat da positives. This is da way of da Tao or is it Dao. NOT MEANT TO MIMIC PRIOR WISDOMIC POSTS ( which I enjoyed-excludin' ERLE )

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:08 - ID#45173)
Over 90% of all critical systems will get fixed. I believe that. What I am becoming more pessimistic about is the impact of the remaining 10% that fail. My first hand experience is that profitable businesses, such as GM, can afford to fix their systems and they will do fine, assuming the telecommunications and utility companies that they depend on have fixed their stuff ( however I know first hand of several that will not have fixed their systems ) . Low-margin and unprofitable businesses have not done much, are already too late, and will fail. Profitable yet stupid and bureaucratic businesses, such as certain enormous telecom companies, such as one especially large, stupid and badly unprepared company that shall remain nameless ( headquartered in NJ, begins with the letter "A" ) , will, short of a miracle, not be ready. Not that many individuals or corporations need to use telecom services. They can get by just fine without them for six months or more. This will have no impact on your island of Y2K preparedness.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:12 - ID#350145)
gold and dollar and bonds and stocks
i don't pretend to understand this stuff. but it may be that as the japanese add liquidity this will strengthen the dollar and thus put pressure on gold. the bonds fall might just be money moving from a safe haven to stocks. but i remember years ago when oil fell precipitously, and the stock mkt fell for three days until some geniuses figured out that falling oil was good for stocks and the mkt reversed its mid stream. i loved that one.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:12 - ID#187109)
you must be far too young ( kitco-wise ) to say you are the only dissenter. Sharefin knows my feelings........

I must now admit that I am somewhat disturbed by all this WhyTwoKay stuff. I have read too much to say that it will be a bunch of crap though ( although I remember calling it crap at one time ) . There will be some difficulties....I just don't know how much. I also, however, believe in the resolve of the human race and think that we, as human beings, will come together and bring this situation to a calm and collect conclusion and that life will trudge on............. ( probably ) .

It has been interesting to read the reactions of peopleos from other countries ( not to name any ) ......oh hell, some 'Stralians and a gnuzeelander, that they would not want to live in the many LARGE cities around the US. It is their understanding that there will be disaster/dissent/blood-in-the-streets and mob rule will be the result.

Well, now I will comment ONCE and then no more ( and no responses to rebuttals ) ........ ( damn this vino is good ) ....................... ( Martin Brothers, Paso Robles, CA 1995 Cabernet Etrusco ) ................... ( one of my favorites of ALL time ) ....... ( so far ) .........OK.........

During my 'stint' in Los Angeles I have lived through MANY earthquakes........the two that come to my mind readily are Sylmar in '71 and the relatively recent Northridge quake. A result of the Northridge quake was that EVERYTHING in my 'flat' was destroyed ( 9 miles from the epicenter in Calabasas ) . Los Angeles was in shambles. Freeways, houses, roadways, businesses, LIVES, etc.......DESTROYED. The people of L.A. DID NOT......... ( I repeat ) .....DID NOT riot. Quite the contrary, they rallied together and 'rebuilt' the city. Black, White, Brown, Yellow ( if I can use color to reference race ) .......even some rare purple ones. PH in LA, Farfel, Who Knows, others can attest. The community responded with resounding kindness and lent a hand to their fellow man/woman. Of course there were 'bad apples' but they were few and far between and were dealt with not only by the law but by their peers in their respective communities ( L.A. is a vast place ) . L.A. rallied back from disaster........EVERYBODY HELPED ONE ANOTHER! The same will occur after WhyTwoKay.............believe it. Soooooooo, that said I truly believe that USA will do just fine as will 'stralians and zeelanders matter what happens. Humans are basically good.

That is all. love my neighbor.


hello gogold.......don't worry bro, 100% is too great an achievement for any mortal......even LGB ;- ) .

go golf ( ing ) .

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:14 - ID#341227)
@GOGOLD...yes, I agree...
Date: Thu Oct 22 1998 21:13
gogold ( The incredible dumbness of me-ing ) ID#430203:
I think you probably should forget $325 by 11/11/98. I know I have.


I always thought your target was far too modest. It's good to see you are hoping to see a higher price target...maybe 350, hmmmm?



(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:17 - ID#45173)
Geez. Where does the time go?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:17 - ID#254288)
Charles Keeling, your 22:36 speaks volumes

It cuts right thru the standard bull and should be pasted on the sheeples bedroom ceilings do that they wake up to its truths on every living day.
Go git dem boys sheeples, dun let'em dit awey wit wat dey doing ta yer.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:21 - ID#404124)
In A New York Minute

From The Eagles....

When Hell Freezes Over

Harry got up

Dressed all in black

Went down to the station

And he never came back

They found his clothing

Scattered somewhere down the track

And he won't be down on Wall Street the morning

He had a home

The love of a girl

But men get lost sometimes

As years unfurl

One day he crossed some line

And he was too much in this world

But I guess it doesn't matter anymore

In a New York minute

Everything can change

In a New York minute

Things can get pretty strange

In a New York minute

Everything can change

In a New York minute

Lying here in the darkness

I hear the sirens wail

Somebody going to emergency

Somebody's going to jail

If you find somebody to love in this world

You better hang on tooth and nail

The wolf is always at the door

In a New York minute

Everything can change

In a New York minute

Things can get a little strange

In a New York minute

Everything can change

In a New York minute

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:21 - ID#254288)
Charles Keeling, your 22:36 speaks volumes; Correction

It cuts right thru the standard bull and should be
pasted on every sheeples bedroom ceiling so they
wake to its truths every living day.
Go git dem boys sheeples, dun let'em dit awey wit wat
dey doing ta yer.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:23 - ID#401460)
Trying to Keep US Head Above Water

Total housing starts fell 2.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.576 million after a revised 5.2 percent decrease to 1.616 million in August. Starts had hit an annual rate of 1.704 million in July -- the strongest building pace in more than a year -- before beginning to ease. f

Economists polled by Reuters expected September existing home sales data to show a decline to 4.70 million units on an annual basis from the previous month's 4.73 million unit rate.

BROCKPORT, NY., Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin said on Thursday it was crucial to prevent an excessive slowdown in the U.S. economy to help restore stability in the world economy, adding that the chances of a recession in the United States were low.

``In the near term there are two clear priorities,'' she said in speech at the State University of New York.

``One is to put up roadblocks to stop the contagion so that emerging market countries can begin to get back on their feet and the other is to keep the world's largest economy, namely us, from slowing down too much, for our own sake and for
the world,'' she added.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:23 - ID#350145)
chicken man
was it you that was asking me about wts? if so, there is one more i wanted to mention to you.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:24 - ID#300202)
becoming like Seinfeld's Soup Nazi. Ur papers please!!!!! Sorry to disrupt negativity. thinin' positive: My Franlin Mint Golds will make me rich. Bought them in 73/74/75. Am I rich yet???????

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:31 - ID#401460)
No Such Program

SOUTH ORANGE, N.J., Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - World Bank President James Wolfensohn said he knows of no multilateral stabilization program for Latin America.

``I know of no such program,'' Wolfensohn said at a press conference at New
Jersey's Seton Hall University during a conference on the ethical dimensions of
international debt.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:31 - ID#287358)
EJ, another thing about GM... I read somewhere that they use 100,000 sources for parts, and that's on a just-in-time basis. Wasn't there a story a while back where a mfr couldn't finish the cars in one factory because they didn't have tail light lenses? What's the chance that all the 100,000 sources will be able to get the order in their hands from GM, fill the order, ship it and have it arrive at GM, and with the correct billing??? I think a lot of those suppliers won't even be able to get their employees to come to work. And if the employees *are* there, will the water and electricity and phone lines be working? And will the trucking company be able to put that shipment through their processes? Will there be truck fuel?
Whattur they gonna do if the truck can't get there? Fly in the parts???
Sorry guys, but I think that anyone here who thinks Y2K isn't going to be a disaster is either choosing to not be informed about it, or is using it as a baiting technique, to engage others. Everybody here has plenty of opportunities to see what a mess this thing will be. During my years of ( formal ) education, I was mostly looking out the window. I vowed to never again do less than my best to be informed. I no longer feel the need to say "I predict" anything about Y2K. It will be flat-out horrible.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:32 - ID#404124)
The Derivative Song

( Tune: "There'll be Some Changes Made" )

You take a function of x and you call it y,
Take any x-nought that you care to try,
You make a little change and call it delta x,
The corresponding change in y is what you find nex',
And then you take the quotient and now carefully
Send delta x to zero, and I think you'll see
That what the limit gives us, if our work all checks,

Bully Beef
(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:33 - ID#259282)
Jims. Big Brother is us. If we feel safe letting "them "run our lives and make decisions
to keep us happy and safe then we get what we deserve. Soooo...Where's my new fridge?

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:33 - ID#290172)
TABLE -Federal Reserve report 4 (H.4.1)Oct 22

One week ended October 21 daily avgs-mlns
Foreign deposits|209 down|112
Gold stock|11,044 vs nil
Custody holdings|575,818 up 3,908
Federal funds rate avg|4.87 vs 5.11

Factors on Wednesday, October 21
Bank borrowings|94 vs 210
Extended credit|nil vs unch
Matched sales|18,313 vs 19,255
Including sales w/cust|18,313 vs 19,255
Float| -230 vs 2,172

NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve said U.S. bank discount window borrowings, less extended credits, averaged $103 million per day in the week ended October 21. Extended credits were nil.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:40 - ID#300202)
U ALMOST sound too sensible to have an imaginery cyber/cider friend-Ted F aka Lobsterman.   sure it wan't willy u wer talkin' to, New Orleans Judges don't take to mutts.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:42 - ID#401460)

"The real story behind Whitewater has not been told. And I've come to believe that Starr and his
men will never tell it." Key Witness Upset

IMHO they will not go after Whitewater because both sides of the aisle are quilty in Arkansas - Republican and Democrat. Arms for Contra, Drugs, etc.


(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:49 - ID#300202)
On ta bed. Plse tell me what ja jus said. will read it on da morn. Will
reply & tell all what Frankins to buy in prep for Y2K.

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:49 - ID#341297)
mole @ warrants
Like the leverage of warrants...interested in PM and oils...please give me the name of the last one too..lost amid the "papers"

Mucho Gracias

Chicken man

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:55 - ID#401460)
The Now Political Federal Reserve


A quick resolution of President Clinton's impeachment inquiry would give a boost to the world economy and financial markets, predicts Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alice Rivlin.

Friday's WASHINGTON TIMES quotes Rivlin, the former Clinton budget director: "I think if we can get this unfortunate incident settled quickly and behind us and get back to the world leadership role that the world needs the U.S. president and the government to play, it will certainly be good for the markets."

[Rivlin did not say if The Fed would reduce interest rates in return for a speedy resolution.]

"Europeans I deal with think this country's gone absolutely mad," said Rivlin. "What are we doing spending our time on the private lives of our leaders when we need leadership in the world? They don't understand it. I don't understand it."

Rivlin's speech at the State University of New York at Brockport echoed views expressed
privately by many foreign economic ministers, notes the TIMES.

This Crap is getting so obvious and sick. Clinton will get off for sure.
NO! NO! I mean he won't be impeached!


(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:55 - ID#190411)
What's your problem with me?
I asked a civilised question about ADRs.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:56 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

And long term:

Never before has it risen so far so fast.

GM is compliant????

Proof please..............

Do they not still have to spend a couple of hundred million?
GM is unlikely to be ever compliant due to it's out sourcing

Perhaps you should read what your government is saying about the subject.

(Thu Oct 22 1998 23:58 - ID#284255)
Nova Scotia Power is compliant????

Proof please..............