At a news conference held by FSA Commissioner Masaharu Hino to announce LTCB's nationalisation, the agency said the bank had 160 billion yen in capital, but also
unrealised losses on its securities holdings of 520 billion yen.

HighRise

When the Golding gets tough, the Golders go golfing! %^ )

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - The latest
information coming out of Russia suggests that the economic downturn will be steeper than predicted just a few weeks ago, IMF Chief Economist Michael Mussa said on Thursday.

HighRise

I've been watching the bond chart ( along with many,many other traders-most a lot brighter than this ole country boy ) ....looking at the chart,I don't think I would want to be a buyer right now...funny thing I've learn about charts and "news"...they don't seem to agree!!...one buys or sells with the "news" thinking the "news" can't be wrong..get's burned bad...sometimes real bad!!!...then and only then one looks at the chart and "wonders" how one could be so stupid...been there, done that ( I'll tell everybody about my Russian grain embargo experience sometime....if I only would have listened what the charts were saying )

Main thing to remember is the trend is your friend..not AG!!

Just a thought.... Chicken man..

Geezy'us. I hadn't realized what a rally that really was until I glanced at your short-term swing, scary. Question to the peanut gallery, the bull one, is there any way that couldn't scare you ? Sharefin, will your chart plot a -50 *innocent smile*. Oh, and "Never before has it risen so far so fast", that's what she said ( sorry, lame joke ) .

Millennium Bug Will Disrupt LME Metals - Wolff

LONDON ( Reuters ) - The millennium computer bug could cause volatility on the London Metal Exchange, the result of economic upheaval potentially triggered by global technology failures, Martin Squires of LME brokers Rudolf Wolff said.
``This technology problem is arriving at a time when global tensions are
high and rising. Wolff expects it to exacerbate market volatility during the closing stages of the millennium,'' the Wolff analyst said in a report today.
He suggested, for example, that mining companies would be reluctant to send their workforces into mines because they will be concerned they and their power providers are not completely 2000 compliant.
Mines could shut down or production problems could arise, he said.
Equally there may be shipping difficulties.
``Trade flows may be disrupted for an unspecified period and industry will look to build stockpiles ahead of 2000, switching from ``just-in-time'' to ``just-in-case'' inventory practices, Squires predicted.
``This is expected to boost Western metal demand and prices during the
second half of 1999,'' he said.
After January 1, 2000 two probable scenarios arise which could tip an
already fragile global economy into recession, Squires added.
Under the first, industrial output will slow as widespread disruption is
caused by failing computers and chips, workers will be laid off and
investment will be reduced, all restricting GDP.
In the second scenario almost no technological problems occur and companies need to work off high inventories and reduce stockpiles. Workers are again laid off and GDP slows.
As unemployement rises commodity prices will decline, ''refueling the
deflationary arguments and concerns about emerging market debt repayments,''he said.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19981022/tc/2000_2.html

you know with wts only the price of the stock matters. wts can be way underprice or way over priced. the first one i mentioned was sunshine mines ( silver proxy- ssc ) the stock is about $.75 the wts are about 3/8 to 5/16 pretty expensive. strike price is $1.38 good until may 2001 - good time and i would still buy them for the long haul if i thought silver was going to say $10 in the next few years. i think they also have some good exploation-but still expensive. this next one i have been keeping sort of quiet because few people seem to have figured it. they are vengold wts. vengold ( t.ven ) is at 1.23 canadian - there are two wts A wts with a strike at $2.35 and B wts with a strike at 1.30 good until may or june ( can't remember ) 2001. the B wts ( t.ven.wt.b ) are the good ones - trade on toronto i think that symbol is good let me know if you have trouble. almost in the money and they are only .25 - 5 to 1 leverage. this stock moves up with gold, ownes 19% of giant liher gold mine and rumor has it placer dome may take it out. don't do anything on my say so, but worth your investigation-good luck mole

The frequent posters of this fine establishment make compelling arguments against the ever expanding equity bubble and how it has to pop. Those that wish to ignore this issue are refered to as "sheeple". With the amount of overwhelming evidence provided by everyone from the "evil" IMF/FED/WB/FEMA/NRC, the "corrupt" politicians, the religious "apocolyptics", the "greedy" consultants, the freeze driers and last but not least my own professional experience, I would say there is a whiff of truth and the "herd" is heading that way.

I don't think you can place this event on Prechter's wave pattern as it is a discrete event which will unfold as light bulbs winking off in a giant wave as the world turns.

Whether it is an elephant or an aomeba, I don't know for sure. I am currently guessing on a bear.

You were recently quoted as saying.

"Europeans I deal with think that this country gone absolutely mad. What are we doing spending our time on the private lives of our leaders when we need leadership in the world. They don't understand it. I don't understand it"

My take is that the NON AMERICAN OWNERS of the Fed, are behind the going ons in the US Government. It may tend to give hope of world denomination thru the US Military, but don't count on possibilties as we the people are not a**holes.

i am getting tired the symbol is silvz. sorry.

Gary North has an agenda.
He has been on a bandwagon for many years wishing for the breakdown of this evil society we live in.

You have to take 95% of what he says with a grain of salt and to not expect to see what he portrays.

He does provide an excellent source of current poignant pieces of news.
I generally like to read the article he posts then come back to his comments and see if in my minds eye I can disprove or discount what he is saying.
Gary North is the only person out there who in my mind is portraying a 10 out of 10.
Milne may be a 9.8 but not a 10 like Gary.

So be carefull to read to much into Gary's actual comments.
He has an agenda.

Fear and denial are hard emotions to handle.
If one is a fearfull person.
One can cling to Gary's words too easily.

Perhaps Ted Wright is doing this too.
I don't know, but when you said that Ted is warning of 50% deaths in 30 days I start to see warning signs.

It sounds like he has gone off the deep end.

I am a staunch advocate of being prudent and cautious.
But not a nutter.

To me I would rank this guy Ted and Gary as at the worst end of possible potential like I rank the Pollanna's of denial at the opposite end of the scale.

Seems that it's like calling for $30,000 gold or $25 gold.

The eventual truth will be closer to middle road.

Not that I think Y2k isn't going to be bad.
I expect deaths and disasters but Mother Earth is used to this and humanity has the power to survive and thrive.

When you look back at the previous rallys over the last few years,
None of them have ever acheived this sort of volatility.

And one must turn and think,
That this up swing is starting to look like it's going to turn soon.
Perhaps it has room for another 10 pts up and then the rollover.

Personally I'm looking for a -400 on the downside. ^o-o^
Looking at it from a North's perspective.

A -50 could well be in the cards.

Loved your joke. ha ( :- ) ) )

"NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve said U.S. bank discount window borrowings, less extended credits, averaged $103 million per day in the week ended October 21. Extended credits were nil."

700 Million a week, 3 billion a month- I thought they discouraged borrowing from the discount window.

I suppose time will tell. Watching these recent moves reminds me of the graphs I used to see in my non-linear physics class, the point at which the graph goes imaginary *grin*. I get my own read looking at your charts ( which I appreciate very much btw ) , but do you see the volatility increasing or decreasing in the near future ? I mean, there's no way to tell, but I'd love your take on things.

Caper
Please elaborate on Franklin Mint Golds. TIA. Good to hear dissenting voices on Y2K.

eauty
You sully ( moulder? ) the name of all gud gnusealanders..It's just that if the wurse of the wurse happens, it'll happen in a large hungry city with more guns than beans. Not on a quiet sheepstation in the Southern Alps. ( Are my electric sheep Y2K compliant? )

Poisernally? I agree, people are people, no matter from whence. Only the livers are of different colours. Most people's first reaction will be to help those who are helpless rather than shoot them:

Fin of great Sharing copied some piece from a Merkan cop in NY about a week ago. He contrasted black-outs in the 60's with a black-out in the 70's. The trend to violence in NY was obvious.

In an earthquake, everyone is shocked, AT ONCE. The nature of Y2K event ( more and more Fortean, it is ) is that it will effect different people differently, and it will, if the Cassandras are to be believed, have a rolling out of effects....Some who are ready to rally to assist may meet others who are angry at some sumbitch.

Who's gonna be first against the wall after Y2K? This time, it might not be the lawyers or accountants, but the programmers.

...flash forward 438 day...

aurator running down smoked out suburbans streets, turns to enraged mob hard on his heels...."Don't kill me, I'm a lawyer."

You gotta laff at iriots who predict 50% mortality in 10 days...sheesis...

last year when this whole bond thing started with the asia melt down lower % rates was clear as a bell - feds could not raise rates, period. now there is so much noise who knows. will the stock mkt take the money away from bonds or will Venezuela's currency collaps causing money to run back, or will money run out of t-bonds back to corporates. takes someone smarter than me. i usually don't do anything unless i feel i can see pretty clearly what i am doing, unless it is a good percentage play. if i could find cheap long term options on almost anything i might buy it.

Dear Contrarian,
And other NDY watchers. Just after lunch, its $1.46 bid with Morgan Stanley noted as a big buyer this morning. Also a Perth broker is paying up for the November $1.75 calls with 400 still to go. All on a day with Gold down. What's going on ??? I mean their hedge book alone is worth at least A$800 million with the A$ Gold price under $470 and total market cap is around A$2.4 billion or US$1.5 billion, and they only produce 1.5 million troy oz p.a. Happy trading all. JohnC@Sunny_Brisbane

MONEX has nothing to do with it.
There are brokers doing this world wide.

"Churn and burn"

I too, have lost far toooooo much, at the advice of brokers here in Australia.
The learning curve is an expensive road.

And it is up to the owner of the money to be educated and smart.
Seems the same with all businesses.
How many small businesses go ass up in their first year?

It is a waste of time to blame the broker or someone else.
The painfull part of the exercise is too accept that you/me stuffed up all on our own.

Oldman has stated that it has taken him over 6 figures to get an education.
Yes, over $1,000,000 before he got street wise.

To bitch and complain reveals a little of ones make up.
And if that is the case then far better to be away from what causes the angst.

Just my 2c

remember the source, but I do remember that they were supposed to be compliant well before 99. It's quite possible that that article was unreliable but it seemed reasonable to me. It would be a simple matter to e-mail them & ask.

Calling it a night.

Ummmmmmmm, no. I'm not even sure a full scale nuclear war triggering the sinking of the west coast of the United States into the ocean followed by a volcanic eruption in Virginia washing lava over Washington DC's radioactive wasteland triggering a new virus that spreads by sight and kills in two hours ... would cause a 50 percent mortality rate. I don't think a computer problem, no matter how severe, is gonna do it either.

At 2.58pm NDY trading at $1.48 and CIBC/Wood Gundy the buyer in the 175 calls and also buying good volumes of shares. Go Golf.

GM still working on it but making a good progress. GM is one of the better-positioned companies when it comes to dealing with Y2K. Based on their Y2K plan they will be ready ( internally ) . They are concerned about their dependencies on outside entities and infrastructure ( comm ) , especially in their worldwide operations. Info from high position sources in GM.

for Goldteck ..
You asked about the RSA article .. Is it true??
in places .. the man talks about Joburg .. while I would
not want to live there .. Id prefer it to say San
Diego..
Robnoel .. posts lots of this kind of thing .. its
certains an element of truth .. crime is bad in the
Black community here .. its also bad in the BC in the
US .. The government is stupid here .. it is in the
US too. HOWEVER .. a stupid and weak government has a
plus side .. there's LESS interference in your private
life HERE than in the US ( except for the odd thing
that the more active ministers pick up from the US
propaganda machine .. like preventing people from
smoking )
The stuff about phones and power is crap .. the
infrastructure here is generally speaking better than
the US amd MUCH better than Europe. I live here by
choice .. while maintaining a house in Europe which
I rent out .. This seems to annoy professional
Africa haters terribly.

For moa ..
Alex gets 200 rand per week ( paid on daily rate ) ..
He gets breakfast and lunch and a couple cups
of java .. He is presently painting all my shutters.
He'll get a christmas bonus of 500 rands .. My colored
maid tanya lives in .. gets 550 rand /month and a
bonus also .. she's 23 and will give massages ..

What I cannot comprehend is how a person with both a spicy and believed to be rutheless past manages to achieve a position of power over a leading country?
Conclusion: somebody out there likes him....or should I say somebody down below, like 666.
The bells just don't ring right, like those that served before him.

I'm envious - what a life, massages whenever you want *sigh*. I'd love that.

I would expect it to keep increasing untill these excesses are purged.
Both to the upside as well as downside.

The next move on the swing will be to the downside.
How far, who knows?
The Feds/PPT have much more ammo.

But I would guess that the bears are already out there
And on the next downswing they will be out in force.

Whether or not we get our crash
I think that the next downer will be far nastier than the last.

But one thing I have learnt is that the PPT etc have deep pockets.
They will be there.

And at the end of the day I expect the dow to be down by up to 50%.
And in the long run have expectations that it will be far lower.
One only needs look at the 29 crash and other manias.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/DOWPLOT.JPG

To forfill the description of a mania it will end up below its starting point.
Which is around the 1000 mark.
See the CPUG charts.

So one day we're going to see a crash of awesome size. Soon I'd think.
Followed by a ravaging bear for a few years a la Y2k.

that was good one envy. you are the poet.

Thanks for info on Normandy. Of course now would be the time to get set whilst gold is in this correction phase. expecting big things for NDy
without a doubt the best Gold producer in Australia.

Well this evening's proceedings have served cause to review, once again, my personal thoughts on the subject and to put those thoughts in the context of my track record for predicting the future.

Conclusions???

1. My ability to predict the future is likely unchanged and as dismal as ever.

2. Given a suitable level of public hysteria, perceptions ( real or imagined ) could well become reality. Y2k has the potential of becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

3. One person with a marvelously modern credit card and an itch to get a leg up on his neighbor, can put big gaping holes in a food market's inventory. Two could probably clear the aisles.

4. EB's personal anecdote is probably correct in the limited sense of a finite disaster of known proportion and limited duration. I'm not certain that his personal experience would extend to a global scale with serial cascading effects and unknown duration. Given a panic, people will likely take a renewed interest in a basic law of nature. Survival of the fittest. ...... Fire in a theater comes to mind somehow.

5. The west has lived the good life for many decades. We have become accustomed to living in the glow of a benevolent providence. It's inconceivable to the majority of westerners that ordinary disasters could ever befall us. As they do in the more benighted regions of the world.

Witness the latest budget bill reported in today's papers. It's 100% pork and 0% preparedness. Hubris of the most egregious kind. ....... OTOH, anything that could bring the federal government to it's knees should be viewed with glee.

6. The cost of simple preparedness is so inexpensive as to be not worth disussing. I am thinking of basic foodstuffs and necessities more than a fully equipped estate in the mountains and a five year supply of MRE's.

( BTW, according to the military channel, yer well advised to stay away from the ham and cheeze omlet. The troops don't like 'em at all. )

There is a good chance that the whole dreadful business is overblown and will pass in unremarkable fashion. Just as well advertised apocalypses have done in the past. At the same time there can be no denying that a problem exists. It's palpable and semi measurable. Even if we cannot yet measure the scope of it's effect. And given the people element, we will not know until the effects are upon us. Daily.

7. There is no law that commands disasters to arrive in serial fashion with decent intervals for repair in between. They can come in serial pairs or parallel bunches. Disruption of public health carries a host of unpleasantness. One just naturally follows the other.

Coming as it does on the heels of the world's financial denoument, y2k will likely exert a leverage well beyond it's normal range.

If you have young children or grandchildren, a first thought should be for their welfare. If not for that thought, I would probably be much more laid back on the issue.

As individual men with skills and resources, we have options not available to the young. We can always escape to more hospitable climes and circumstances even though they may include fewer creature comforts. But those options are precluded when the young are involved. Their welfare becomes are loving responsibilty. We have no choice but to do what we have always done; make the best, most sensible choices based on the limited information available.

The guts 'n guns thing is macho bullshit. Both are essential but a minor part of the plan. IMO. Given a dire y2k outcome, your demise will more likely come at the "hand" of a lowly microbe than a riotous mob. And besides the violent thought process is distraction from more important matters.

In the end, ya pays yer money and takes yer choices. But simple prudence would dictate at least some form of planning and preparation.

Remember the 7 P's: Proper, prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

crusty
plse email me, I think my golden lance didn't make the distance.
salty

All
Is it just mois? Or does everyone now have a skinny Message window? Like 52 characters wide? It used to be wider till I reinstalled a Mac OS.
It's cramping my stye, just a tad.

any advice from the big guns on how a novice can begin to unravel the mystery of your profession? following kitco daily has taken me a long way so far and i'm eternally grateful. kings you are!

tia

If only it would go down in the history books exactly like that. Actually, I'm not hopeful for any kind of crash, but since the markets have went to all the trouble to set the table, and since somebody has to eat all that's been laid out, I might as well take a seat. If the market were to crash, somebody would have to make out like a bandit, might as well be me. Have you bought any tickets to crashville USA ? I'm holding bunches and bunches, just in case - think of it like: if the markets were to crash, my business would be doomed in no time, etc, so it's kind of a hedge against the whole world going to hell, insurance I don't mind paying for.

If Y2k goes bad is there going to be any foreign aid, medicine or food distributed to these countries who rely so heavily upon it?

Or will every one be more concerned about their own home paddock???

Philanthropy is the exclusive province of those with a full belly.

Last week it was around US$528 million, and that was twice what normal lending had been. So, appears the discount window has been busy for a second week in a row.

The Fed can do whatever they want at the discount window for whomever they want. There is some "smoke" about having to attempt funding from other sources prior to using the discount window, but we all know how arrangements can be made.

This from the Fed...

"A rarely utilized procedure is for the Federal Reserve Bank to advance credit to individuals, partnerships and corporations that aren't depository institutions, if the Reserve Bank determines credit isn't available from other sources and failure to obtain that credit would adversely affect the economy. This would only be done after consultation with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System."

What might one conclude from this?

I too wish all this crap wasn't coming earthside.

Life is too good and very pleasant to disrupt.

No way do I want to live through these coming changes.
I am a sedentary soul with a broken body who will be hard tested through these coming changes.

And no, I am not short at all. Much to my chargrin.
Those damn brokers done stole my money.

Actually just put 25K into selling the house and now I'm broke.
The mrs is putting the pressure on and I will probably be out hunting for a job next week.

When living in Houston Texas, I often wondered how earlier residents managed to get through the long hot and humid mosquito ridden summers without air conditioners or treated water.

While setting observation markers in Hoenfels Germany during one of the coldest winters on record, I wondered how international forces managed to stay alive while being attacked by the human waves north of the the 38th Parallel during a the harsh North Korean winter.

I can go on and on, but the point is that they managed and why shouldn't we, even with some pain.

Looking from here it must be why I rant and rave too much.

A full belly is a fine place to balance a fine wine upon. ^o-o^

It's been my experience that as time and fine meals progress, the full belly now not only accomodates the glass but the box as well. ...... Is wine still available in bottles?? I could never find the corkscrew. ...... {:- ) )

I was talking with the president of the company I work for today and I mentioned something to the effect that we had nothing to worry about since FEMA would step in and take over in the event of an emergency.
( Trying to provoke a response. )

He told me a story that that was in sharp contrast to the image I had of FEMA usurping constitutional rights and boldly swinging into action in a crisis.

He said our company did some work on one of the buildings FEMA took over after a major earthquake. Apparently FEMA hired exclusively from the ranks of the unemployed. There were approximately 2-3 arrests per day of the newly hired FEMA workers for various offenses, warrants, crimes committed in the workplace, etc.

He described a particular floor he had to travel through as being populated with criminal losers sitting around, talking, goofing off, who were using the hunt and peck method of typing to process large checks.

Out of the whole floor he only saw but a few people putting up a token effort to produce anything.

These are the guys who are going take over in emergency right? Who cares about riots? Those left in the cities will be slowly roasted on a spit as they are forced to deal with two bit know-it-all bureuacrat dictators who have waited a lifetime to be in charge of something. If the long lines don't get you the paperwork will certainly finish the job!

This thought has stuck with me. Perhaps I am a dunce. Has anyone an answer? Since there are no followups, it is either likely an obviously simple answer, a joke even, not worthy of comment, or it is a connundrum? If you can answer, please indulge me. TIA

Oooops. Sorry for the misdirected response. ..... Too much of that boxed wine.

Umm you don't pay him is the anwer ( Grin ) . Follow this if you will?. The miner mines gold so he can have money. When he has the gold all smelted and stacked in nice piles he goes shopping. He pays for a huge house with gold. He stackes the place with the finest ho's gold can buy. Now the guy who sold the house has the gold, and the ho's have the cash to get more clothing. Get the picture yes/no?

Kind Regards
JohnnyK

Ahhh. I see. I am a dunce :- ) . I had been so brainwashed that you "worked" at some trade, to get "money" a medium of exchange, that you swapped for what you really wanted, that I missed the obvious.

If I further make your point, for my own mind's sake... If FRN's were able to be "mined" directly by me, a miner, for example, digging in the dirt, then no one would "pay" me anything for them, as they are the end product of the striving in the first place, or are convertible to the end product.

Thanks for granting me a good night sleep.

http://sec.yahoo.com/e/l/a/abmd.html
ABIOMED INC ( ABMD ) Quarterly Report

RISK FACTORS WHICH MAY AFFECT FUTURE RESULTS ( continued )

With respect to the Company's financial and management information systems, the Company must upgrade the application software to be Year 2000 compliant. The supplier of the software has developed a Year 2000 compliant version of the software and the Company anticipates upgrading its systems to this version prior to the end of fiscal 1999. Because on April 1, 1999 the Company begins its fiscal year 2000, the Company anticipates that if it does not upgrade its financial and management information systems in Fiscal 1999, it may encounter Year 2000 compliance issues as early as April 1999. With respect to its suppliers, the Company is beginning to communicate with key suppliers to assess their vulnerability to the Year 2000 issue and intends to increase inventory levels of certain key components to help mitigate the risk of certain suppliers not being able to supply materials on a timely basis due to systems issues.

Although management does not expect Year 2000 issues to have a material impact on its business or future results of operations, there can be no assurance that there will not be interruptions of operations or other limitations of system functionality or that the Company will not incur significant costs to avoid such interruptions or limitations. To the extent that the Company does not eliminate all Year 2000 issues, the most reasonably likely worst case year 2000 scenario is systemic failures beyond the control of the Company, such as a prolonged telecommunications or electrical failure, or a general disruption in supplies and services provided to the Company which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, results of operations and financial condition.

Y2K sickness is symptomatic of those afflicted with an overindulgence in goldbuggery.

Durban Roodepoort Deep results for the quarter ending 30 September will be published at http://www.drd.co.za/ by 30 October.

Y2K sickness is symptomatic of those afflicted with an
overindulgence in goldbuggery, brought on by the hedge funds shorting the metal at the direction of the PPT.

Growth sector for Y2k

This one is from Helen.
And she is very positive about it.

Stockpiling home brew kits to produce copious quantities of the amber ale.

She is emphatic that we have many kits put away.
And will settle for no less.

As for wine I will not stockpile boxes.
But rather go for those restaurant sized casks.
20lts at a time, and of reasonable quality.

Just the otherday I was in a big bottleshop with her and remarked that none of these goods would be here if oil stopped flowing.
Every single bottle is trucked in to town from way down south.

If the oil stops flowing for one week the pipes will be frozen solid with tar.
Well sort of.

We'd better make sure that the Middle East keeps their systems going or I'll have no wine.^o-o^

I'm off to the Motor show in Sydney. gotta pick out a car for when I join the squillionaire's club.

my bid for a 0.02 put warrant ( on a major bank, no less ) expiring next week didn't get filled. oh well.

next week should provide lotsa more interesting opportunities.



sharefin: i love those swing charts of yours. do you think the massive upturn will be followed by a massive downturn?

chicken-man: ahh... bonds. will buy my tix on monday. if chaos hasn't taken over by then.


to the cars!

Where you state: "Y2k will turn out to be a bunch of overated Crap."
Being a bear by nature - and to help balance this forum's optimism.
Gold and Silver will soon be reduced in value by a factor of ten
because Gold is being stripped of most of the rest of its monetary role
and Silver will soon be stripped of much of its photographic role.
Maybe electronics or other applications can pick up the slack
if Skinny's statement regarding Y2K turns out to be accurate.
If not, then all bets are off, except on the value of canned stew.

...when they announced their future "possible" sale of 50% of their entire gold reserves in the Fall of '97??

Is that the reason they talked down gold? How much did they know about the threat to certain major Swiss banks owing to LTCM's huge exposure in the gold carry trade?

Hmmmmmmmm????

Now does it make sense?

Thanks.

F*

--------------------------
New York Times
October 23, 1998


Swiss Banks Stagger After Several Missteps

By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

ZURICH, Switzerland -- The global financial turmoil has jolted big banks
across Europe and the United States, but few can match the woes in
Switzerland.

First came the agreement this summer by the biggest Swiss banks, led by Credit
Suisse Group and UBS AG, to pay $1.25 billion to settle a suit brought by
Holocaust survivors concerning plundered wealth that had been stored in Swiss
banks.

Then, in September, Credit Suisse acknowledged it had lost at least $500 million
through its activities in Russia. Most analysts say the total losses could easily be
twice that.

And three weeks ago, the chairman of UBS abruptly resigned after the bank lost
$780 million in connection with the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital
Management, the hedge fund in Greenwich, Conn.

More bad news is probably on the way. Most analysts say Credit Suisse will have
to write off at least another $500 million in Russian debt, while UBS faces a
mountain of potential trouble in Latin America -- not to mention the lingering
possibility of more bombshells from wayward derivatives trading.

All this has gravely undermined the elite mystique of Swiss bankers as being too
stable and sure-footed to be tripped up by the lure of fast money. Such stumbling
also carries international significance, given the global reach of both institutions.
After its merger in January with Swiss Bank Corp., UBS is by some measures the
world's biggest bank.

And though both banks can easily handle their losses, their dignity and credibility
will be far more difficult to repair. Indeed, the very notion of a "Swiss" bank is
under strain. Two of UBS' top executives now are American, including the man
who is charged with redefining "risk" for the entire institution: a 33-year-old
derivatives wizard from Chicago named David Solo.

UBS is also still struggling with a sweeping reorganization in the wake of its
merger with Swiss Bank and its trading catastrophe with Long-Term Capital.

"What we have had so far are only profit warnings," said George Koh, an analyst
at Paribas Capital in London. "But sooner or later they are going to have to take
new provisions" for expected losses.

How much? UBS has not spelled out much about its exposure to risky loans; its
looming losses are unclear but are expected to be big. At Credit Suisse, which has
provided detailed information about its loan portfolios and trading activities, Koh
and others are betting on $1 billion in additional losses just from Russia and Brazil.

Amid the turmoil, the two banks appear to be responding in very different ways.
Ever since UBS stunned the industry by announcing that its chairman would
resign, the bank has hunkered down in silence to rethink its strategy toward
higher-risk activities like proprietary securities trading and investment banking.

UBS executives refused to be interviewed, but the bank told shareholders recently
that it was re-evaluating its "risk profile." Some industry experts speculate that
UBS might go so far as to sell or spin off its investment bank, Warburg Dillon
Read, though most analysts say it will simply hew to a far more conservative tack.

At Credit Suisse and its investment bank, Credit Suisse First Boston, executives
remain almost pugnaciously determined to stick to their strategy.

"Some European banks will decide this is a business they do not want to be in,"
said Richard Thornburgh, Credit Suisse's chief financial officer. "It appears to us
that there is an opportunity here to capitalize on the reduction in capacity."

Though UBS and Credit Suisse face different problems, both have been expanding
in more profitable but riskier areas. Because of Switzerland's historic role as an
international financial center and the country's small domestic market, both banks
are far more internationally minded than other European banks, and far less
dependent on traditional commercial lending.

UBS became one of the world's biggest banks when it merged with Swiss Bank
Corp. early this year. But the giant new bank is now having intense heartburn
because of its problems in Russia and Asia and its disastrous involvement with
Long-Term Capital.

The bank revealed last month that it had lost $780 million through a complex series
of transactions with the American hedge fund, in part because top bank executives
had failed to realize the extent of their exposure. Hoping to restore some of the
bank's lost credibility, Matthis Cabiallavetta, the chairman, resigned along with
other top executives on Oct. 2.

Analysts say the problems appear to have originated at the old UBS, which lost
more than $450 million on derivatives trading in 1997.

Executives from the old Swiss Bank, which had a much bigger business in
derivatives, are now largely in control of the combined operation. Marcel Ospel,
who built up much of Swiss Bank's investment banking business, is UBS' chief
executive. Solo, the 33-year-old chief operating officer of UBS' Warburg Dillon
Read, has been named to the new job of "chief risk officer."

But UBS' problems extend beyond its adventures with hedge funds. Many were
dismayed Sept. 24 when UBS announced a loss of $468 million in emerging
markets, much of it in Russia. Just four weeks earlier, the bank had said its losses
in Russia were only about $133 million.

UBS also has a big exposure to Latin America, which has become infected by
much of the currency turmoil that hit Asia and Russia. Total exposure in Latin
America is about $3.56 billion, but the bank has taken provisions adding up to less
than 10 percent of that amount.

That percentage would be "certainly too low," said Morgan Stanley in a recent
report, should the region endure more financial turmoil.

Credit Suisse's biggest problem is Russia. In a bold bid to capitalize on the
reconstruction of Russia after the fall of communism, Credit Suisse First Boston
became the dominant dealer in Russian government bonds, accounting for 40
percent of the trading activity. It also became a big lender to Russian companies
and municipalities.

All told, Credit Suisse has estimated its exposure in Russia -- through government
bonds, currency contracts, loans and trading activities -- at about $3 billion. The
bank has set aside about $1 billion in provisions, but most analysts now assume it
will need to set aside far more.

"My assumption is they have another half-billion or billion to go," said John
Leonard, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney in London.

Thornburgh of Credit Suisse conceded that more provisions may well be
necessary, but said the ultimate extent of the losses will depend in large part on
how the Russian government restructures its bonds and how Russian banks decide
to meet their commitments.

"The mistake we made in Russia was that no one ever thought that you would get
the combination of a devaluation, a default and a fall of the government -- and
effectively the government has fallen," he said Thursday.

Credit Suisse's Russia problems come in several flavors. As of early September, it
had trading positions in Russian government and corporate bonds worth $147
million. It also had about $1 billion in loans to government agencies or big Russian
companies, like the natural-gas conglomerate Gazprom, and about $571 million in
loans to other corporations and banks.

Many loans were made in the expectation of underwriting future bond offerings,
whose proceeds would be used to pay off the loans. But bond offerings are now
virtually impossible, and the bank is waiting to see what happens.

One of the biggest dangers is in currency contracts, which are usually entered with
Russian banks to hedge against a devaluation in the ruble. These contracts were
crucial for investors buying up Russian bonds, which pay high interest rates -- but
only in rubles.

Credit Suisse said it has about $1.1 billion worth of these contracts on its books,
money that Russian banks theoretically owe it in the wake of the ruble's plunge in
value since the summer. But the Russian government has imposed a moratorium on
paying off these contracts.

"The criticism that everyone can make is that our concentration on Russia was too
high," Thornburgh said. "But there was nothing wrong about the activity in itself.
This is what banks do."

In the wake of Russia's economic collapse, Credit Suisse said last week it would
eliminate about 100 jobs in that country. But in most parts of their business, bank
executives say they have no intention of retrenching.

To be sure, Switzerland's two big banks are hardly alone. Scores of other big
American and European banks, from Deutsche Bank in Germany to BankAmerica,
have taken big losses in Asia and Russia. Spain's biggest banks have huge
exposure in Latin America, as do American and German institutions. Compared
with Japan's big banks, many surviving only on life support, the giant Swiss
institutions are bastions of robust health.

For all the problems, some analysts argue that the Swiss banks retain important
advantages over rivals like Deutsche Bank or ABN-Amro of the Netherlands.

With the advent of the euro as a single European currency -- even though
Switzerland will remain outside the new currency zone -- the overwhelming trend
in Europe is toward a handful of money-center banks, said Hans Kaufmann, an
analyst at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich.

"What will happen in the new euro area is that major companies will not need 11
different local banks," Kaufmann said. "They will go for the major banks that are
capable of organizing large-scale economies. At the end of the day, there is only
one way you can survive and that is by being efficient."

for grizz ..
you predict gold to fall to about
30 $/oz and silver to 50 cents ..
thank you grizz .. Ill remember
that ..
and if you were reduced by a factor
of ten .. you'd be a tiny teddy bear.

For Thurs 22 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
LIBOR--------------5.22--------------5.22--------------4.94----------------4.69
MGLR--------------4.58---------------3.82-------------3.50-----------------2.91
Gold Lease Rate--0.64---------------1.40-------------1.44-----------------1.78
( Change ) ---- ( - 0.03 ) -------- ( - 0.08 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
LIBOR---------------5.22--------------5.22--------------4.94-----------------4.69
Silver Lend Rate----4.40--------------3.80--------------2.80-----------------2.50
Silver Lease Rate---0.82--------------1.42--------------2.14-----------------2.19
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.10 ) -------- ( - 0.30 ) ------- ( - 0.20 ) ----------- ( - 0.10 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

Many Y2K preparations attempt to preserve unrealistically high standards of living. It would do our minds and souls good to consider more humble aspirations. As in the following suggestion from a Y2K prep forum on how to pass the coming times .

"A shallow type of hibernation...
A time of meditation and reflection Stretch out food stores and eliminate the need for heat, except for cooking, by reducing activities to basic body maintenance, reading and maybe writing. Summers could be a time of foraging and other outdoor activity. I could do this for several years ( I have done it before ) . The GAMBLE is that civilization would improve enough in several years that I could resume a normal life."
http://www.butterfly.net/neoism/squares/y_Nietzsche_Quote.html
"fatalism without revolt which is exemplified by a Russian soldier who, finding a campaign too strenuous, finally lies down in the snow. No longer to accept anything at all, no longer to take anything, no longer to absorb anything-to cease reacting altogether. This fatalism is not always merely the courage to die; it can also preserve life under the most perilous conditions by reducing the metabolism, slowing it down, as a kind of will to hibernate."

Many thanks for your 04:17 yesterday. Sorry I did not acknowledge sooner but went off-line at 04:05 . Regards......Dabchick

then less food would I need for the oncoming decade of winter.
Instead of one year of supplies, I would have ten!

If Silver were about 50 cents/ounce,
then value of the old "junk silver" coins would be
dime = 3.6 cents, quarter = 9 cents, half = 18 cents.
That would be a reasonable value.
Their face value would again be worth more than their melt value
such as back when they were originally minted.
Ahhh - for the "good old days" when money was made of Silver & Gold!

Death will visit heavily those INDIVIDUALS who've been parasites in a welfare system and who have lost the ability to fend for themselves.
To adapt your statement: There won't be any government aid, medicine or food distributed to these individuals or families. {Or at least there won't be for long - only until the government runs out of its stockpiles and the private stockpiles & means of production it manages to confiscate and nationalize for the "general welfare".

...yet, the American government via the Federal Reserve has opted to protect the investors of LTCM from financial failure and any painful repercussions for their gross stupidity.

Where was the American government when BRE-X collapsed and sent shock waves through the entire gold industry? Why was no protection afforded to the many gold companies that collapsed? What about the many gold investors that lost millions of dollars from ruined gold companies? Why did the government not intervene to preclude the panic that ran through the gold market after the BRE-X scandal? Why should gold investors pay a single cent of tax from this day forward to a goverment that subverts free enterprise and the natural outcome of the markets, to the detriment of said gold investors? Why should gold investors quietly suffer the inevitable inflation/stagflation that will result from a goverment frantically printing money in order to forestall the financial crisis now unfolding? Where is the outrage?

The unmitigated corruption of the American Treasury Secretary and his partner in crime, the head of the Federal Reserve is beyond conception.
They are simply criminals...nothing less! Gold investors, gold industry officials, gold miners, and all equities/bonds short sellers should mass in front of the White House and protest the lopsided treatment and protection afforded general equities investors and bonds investors in this country. Absolutely no level playing field!

When certain posters on this KITCO forum parade their alleged "genius" and "intelligence" in their equities and bonds returns over the past several years, then they should really be aware that their self-described "expertise" has less to do with any possession of real smarts...rather, they have been ( and are ) simply protected from any loss by the most corrupt government officials to ever occupy office. A hamster investing in general industrial equities under such circumstances would have performed no worse than any mutual fund/401K investor.

These government officials' interventions on behalf of favored cohorts, golf buddies, and pet insitutions is a blatant obscenity...it is the equivalent of a financial WACO enacted against a targeted group of investors. Gold investors and equities/bonds short sellers should be furious!

They should let the politicians know that this new form of American fascism ( or corporate socialism ) will be attacked and resisted in the name of preserving liberty and free markets in this country.

We, the gold investors of America, want our money back, Messrs. Greenspan and Rubin. You have screwed us...you have raped us. Return it to us, immediately!! You have enabled financial markets to defy any semblance of logic and bubble to unsustainable heights. We bet against the insanity. We were 100% right in our analyses but you interfered in these once free markets to benefit the greedy pigs on Wall Street...the insatiable hedge funds who borrowed cheap gold offered by the Central Banks "friendly" to your protectionist, interventionist agenda in order to buy higher yielding bonds and equities. The vertical equities/bonds markets of the late Nineties developed upon the trampled body of the gold market as Wall Street institutions were encouraged to short the metal into the ground in order to ensure a neverending supply of cheap financing for their financial exploits.

Give us justice, Messrs. Greenspan and Rubin. You owe it to us!

Thanks.

F*

and for it's face value to be worth more than its melt value
Gold would have to again be less than $20/oz
OR
The Double Eagle would have to be half the size of the original
http://www.si.edu/organiza/museums/nmah/csr/nnc/doubleea/doubleea.htm

And a week's wages would again be worth an ounce of Gold
{which is the case today for those many who make $7.50 per hour}

Today's World Baseline

Home Value: $200,000
Week's Groceries: $100
Annual Income: $60,000
Gold: $295/oz

Deflationary World

Home Value: $50,000
Week's Groceries: $25
Annual Income: $15,000
Gold: $75/oz

Stagflationary World

Home Value: $800,000
Week's Groceries: $400
Annual Income: $80,000
Gold: $1,200/oz

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/l3.html

This explosive equities rally was absolutely necessary for the market makers to unload unto the public all the stocks they were obligated to buy on the big drop into the 7400 level. They were rescued by there friends at the Fed who hurriedly cut interest rates not even waiting for the market to close - they were loaded with stock and no buyers and no money to buy more - I believe that the distribution is now about completed and on the next big drop these same market makers will be just walking away -cjk -

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981022/cnd.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/mc.html

I agree. This rally is close to an end. Big point gains at the start have dwindled down to only 13 points yesterday.

great post. i have been intrigued and following the development of that mystery. they split a photon and notice that what they do to one part instantaneously affects the other half. they say einstein thought this part of quantum physics was too spooky. i always felt it was an important lead to a new type of physics. thanks again.

"If the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have been intervening
in the stock market because it is the last defense against
economic crisis - as I very much suspect - then investors
need to know what they are getting into."
-----------------------------------------------------------------
http://nypostonline.com/business/6819.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/life/science/space/lss251.htm

-------------
What The Experts Think*****
http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html
----------------------------------
Y2K Economic Forecasts
http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/forecast.htm
----------------------------


***************A Y2K STORY - I hope you understand.******************
http://tgi.net/bauer/ay2kstory.htm


From
http://tgi.net/bauer/prepared.htm

Good story on LTCB at BBC site

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_199000/199409.stm

http://y2ktimebomb.com/Computech/Issues/bnof9842.htm
--------------------

Grizz
Be it that the gov'ts fall apart then the whole welfare system of the world will come falling apart.

All dependants in any form on these free hand outs will rue the day..
-
Trouble with pollyanna's is that they don't do their homework but have the most solid of opinions.
If anyone had read all the articles that I've posted they could never turn and say "It's a load of overblown crap."
Virtual proof that the subject upsets them and when they come to a Y2k post they skip over it and say "Silly bloody idiots."

I know, cause I live next to one of them.
Who has never looked at one article - doesn't want to.
But knows all the answers and is so vocal in his opinion that all is well and it's "It's a load of overblown crap."

His opinion is set in concrete but yet he knows nothing. ^o-o^

---
Ravenfire
Which bank?
ANZ?

Yes the next downturn should eclipse this last rally.

I believe that the swing will oscillate in ever increasing waves till the markets are way lower.

Lucky it's only my own opinion. ^o-o^

October 23, 1998

Russia/Gold -2: Central Bank Plans To Boost Gold Reserves

Dow Jones Newswires

MOSCOW -- The Russian state reserve Gokhran won't export any gold in 1999, while the country's central bank plans to buy 50 metric tons of domestically produced gold, the Interfax news agency quoted a top Gokhran official as saying Friday.

Central bank officials have said earlier that they plan to boost the bank's gold reserves, and tie the amount of rubles in circulation to the amount of gold in the bank's vaults.

This year, Russia's gold output will total around 120 tons, a fraction less than in 1997 when in it 121.3 tons, said German Kuznetsov, deputy finance minister and head of Gohkran.

Need to watch the market action... see how they make

out supporting the market with no shorts to squeeze. My work indicates the

NYSE PPT would be broke in about 10 trading days, if there were no shorts to squeeze!

They can't move this market with flat out buying, less the end up like Kong Kong,

owning alot of stock. That would blow their "stealth" operation, and expose it to

some deep congressional DoDo! The current rally is getting weaker every day as

shorts are in short supply.....tired of getting their arses kicked. This rally's days

can now be numbered....

Who would have thot it, even the Swiss. One has to wonder how it all can possibly hold together much longer. I am appreciating my insurance, currency of the ages, more all the time. The increase in the XAU in Sept indicates I am not alone.

http://www.securitytrader.com/precmetals.htm

It is ABX and NEM, not the XAU today.

Big D; good morning great article @ 5:15, "spooky acion at a distance"- for a moment I thought it was referencing our loyal cyberOZoid friends.
( := ) )

post in later review but I both thank and admire all of you for your discussion. Good medicine for the soul and timely I suspect for many of us.

State corodinator of EIS for Mcdonald gold project makes donation to the anti-cyanide I-137***** no conflict of interest here what a crock of shit

http://www.missoulian.com/archives/index.inn?loc=detail&doc=/mt/missoulian/archives/1998/October/22-167-news5.txt

December Gold is up $1.10. Maybe it is going to take back some of its losses of yesterday today. It shouldn't be so cheap as in the following story

The wealthy old gentleman and his wife were celebrating their 35th
wedding anniversary and their three grown sons joined them for dinner.
The old man was rather irritated when he discovered none of the boys
had bothered to bring a gift, and after the meal, he drew them aside.

"You're all grown men," he said, "and old enough to hear this. Your
mother and I have never been legally married."

"What?" gasped one of the sons. "Do you mean to say we're all
bastards?"

"Yes," snapped the old man, "and cheap ones, too!"

A dubious U.S. producer of so called "limited" edition products. High
quality but overhyped/overpriced. 73/74/75 they capitalized on a gold frenzy by selling numerous "circulating" coins of the realm of many Caribbean countries such as Bermuda/Barbados/Panama/Belize etc. Believe I paid Cdn approx. 120.00 ea for Proof. 7.03 grams-900/1000 fine gold-sold in "first day of minting sealed cachets". Purchasers got ripped. At the time I "had to buy them all", and i did.

Tom

03:47 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, NEW GERMAN GOVT IN CLASH ON EURO: FINANCIAL TIMES.

03:55 JAPAN'S BANKS CLOSER TO ACCEPTING $512 BLN TOKYO RESCUE PLAN: FT.

03:14 UK'S TREASURY CHIEF READY TO BORROW IF ECONOMY HITS DOWNTURN: FT.

Cannot provide proof-going on good faith. Maybe like buying Franklin Mints-I dunno ) . Called Nova Scotia Power several weeks ago & was advised that they just upgraded to the tune of 17 mill $ & are fully compliant. Did not ask if they tested. Thye now advertise publicly that they r compliant. New Brunswick Power Company are advertising they will be ready by 17 SEP 99. Ontario hydro publicly stating they are compliant albeit there may be a few glitches. I do have doubts about the banking system. Statements released amount to "we r aware of the prob & have been since 1996 & it is our objective to be Y2K compliant."
Tom

Globex down, bonds down, dollar up, metals up, oil up, commodities up

In short, paper stuff mostly down, real stuff mostly up.

The bank manager to sign my balance. Everything else has a paper trail.

US money market mutual fund assets rise in week

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - Total money market mutual fund
assets in the week ended October 21 stood at $1.339 trillion, up from
$1.324 trillion the previous week, an industry trade group said Thursday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/un.html

That's a lot of money in the money markets. Wonder what a crash in the bond market will do to these MM funds?
-EJ

Still plenty of shorts out there - check out Amazon ( AMZN ) this morning.

Seems to me that the gold price still has a way to fall, but it will come back.

If the Germans and The Euro Central Bankers are squabbing now what will happen when they are wedd. I am beginning to move over to the side of those that feel that the euro we fall apart at its first stress.

In fact, that event may have far worse financial consequences than the Y2K buggaboo which its promoters say will effect everything in my life right down to my toaster. At least my tooth brush will work.

The failure of the EURO will be a surprise - the failure of Y2K to NOT stop the world in its tracks and reduce us all to living as we did i the 1950's - that will be a susrprise. The only better advertised catastrophy was the great crash of October '98.

I remember hearing some months back that with the this fall we would start having Y2k problems at some of the state government offices because of Fiscal Year issues. False technical signal I guess, like every one given in the gold market for the last year. The day we can look back and say gold has been in an uptrend for six months - NOW that will be a surprise.

Which leads me back to my pet subject for late this week. I love the Central Bank/Hedge Fund Cabal - yes my gold stocks could have gone up - I guess - if the CABAL wasn't knocking down gold at the $300 line every time it got there - if in fact there really is a conspiracy of any size in play. But look, the central bankers have maintained a standard of living for the greater majority of us that would not be sustained if they weren't there buying the dips and selling the gold rallies. Few of us and our families would be better off with gold at $400 and the stock market where it should probably or would be if gold were at $400.

We have these precious metal investments as insurance to protect us in case the powers that are ( THE CABAL ) lose control of the system as our better sense or conspiratory susceptable minds lead us to suppose they eventually will. Keep holding it together CABAL my life style isn't yet fully hedged nor are few other's here.

Maybe they are, I don't know.
But there are so many, so far behind the eight ball.
And on a global scale.

Roleigh Martin:
Contrast the NERC National Outlook With Your Own Area Utilities
http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=439

World Bank lends S.Korea $2 bln for banks, reforms

"He said the World Bank was also intent on ``substantially strengthening the system of social protection to help the poor and the unemployed.''"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/uo.html

Running into a few social/political problems from unemployment? It's hard to pay that unemployment insurance when you're a broke gummit and in debt. I'd hate to live in a country that has tons of debt when asset value are dropping and unemployment rising. Hey. Wait a minute. Er, I do.
-EJ

-EJ

Sorry, just checked AMZN again and the "short supply warning" has dissappeared - the point is though that AMZN and some others are still heavily shorted, which still makes the short squeeze a viable game for the manipulators to play.

Go gold.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/ob.html

1. ) Take the # of days each week that you that you think the PPT buys the market back up.

2. ) Multiply that # by 2

3. ) Add 5 to above

4. ) Multiply total above by 50

5. ) If you have already had your birthday this year add 1748, if you have
not had your birthday this year add 1747

6. ) Subtract from new total the 4 digit year of your birth.


You should now have a 3 digit answer. The first digit is the number is the
number of times each week that you think the PPT buys the market back up, and the last 2 digits are you age!

This only works this year. Thus the Kairos moment!
Also only this year- devide 1998 by the sign of the beast ( 666 ) = the 3
antichrist ( WJC, AG, & RR )

Socialism actually starts to sound like not a bad idea, especially if you don't have a strong tradition of capitalist democracy. Ask an unemployed German or Brazilian.
-EJ

To be called the CABAL, but really you are right.I don't want to be thrown into the unknown either.How does that go... "better a devil you know..."

Thanx?

It is absolutely amazing how some people can bring up printed matter from some far-out and obscure web site and quote everything they say as gospel. I have gone to some of these sites that people have posted and have found that the printed content and intelligence level would make the National Enquirer look like the book of knowledge. But yet, because these people believe whatever is printed because it falls in with their line of thinking, they feel they must foster this nonsense upon other people. This falls within many categories on this forum.
Sure, Y2K may cause a few problems, but in the end, it will turn out to be a bunch of overgrown crap. In little more than 1 year, we'll see who's right or wrong.

Hi everyone. I enjoy your posts and learn something from you every day. I have gold, guns, generators, etc.

1 ) Re: Y2K Software

When a piece of software is modified ( for example, to make it Y2K compliant ) , there is a good chance that NEW BUGS will be inserted into that software by the modification. Chances of new bug insertion increase when the software is old, and when the programmers making the modification are not familiar with the code/language/OS/compiler. The new bugs can have effects not related to the bug being fixed.

The ability of TESTING to find all bugs in a piece of software is limited by testing resources, mainly time. To exhaustively test a single medium-sized program, using all combinations of input values, testing for all combinations of output values, can take years. I learned this from Ed Yourdon back in the 70's. To produce correct software, it must be developed without inserting bugs, rather than assuming all bugs will be found during testing. This also applies to modifications of existing software.

I've heard government leaders say that TESTING is the key to minimizing Y2K disruptions. This is misleading, since practical testing will not catch all bugs and many bugs will probably be introduced as a result of the Y2K fixes ( code modifications ) .

Because correct software cannot be guaranteed, contingency planning is crucial. We need to be "Y2K Fault Tolerant", able to function when the computers fail.

2 ) Re: Gun Safes

Putting our valuables in a home safe is a good way to protect them from robbers WHILE WE ARE AWAY FROM HOME. I have a gun safe at home, and I use it.

However, if a mean, scary, armed robber confronts us while we are home, and he gets in the house, he might want to force us to open the safe. We need to consider what our response will be.

Thanks, Bart, for this forum.

RTR 10/23 08:45 Alert: CANADIANS SELL RECORD NET C$2.85 BLN FOREIGN SECURITES IN AUG, ESPECIALLY BONDS

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnI__qb8ZtJiZmZaWotK1&FQ=v%

Cycles say the Dow is due for a nearterm top Oct 30th--Nov 2nd..Fibbonacci retracement puts 8648 as resistance area.Wave pattern says the 5th wave up is about to begin. So much for the GURU'S opinion.

What comes after all this is anybody's guess. Watch Gold closely as these dates & numbers occur, maybe it will give devine guidance.

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnI__qb8ZtJiYnJK1ntaZ&FQ=v%

my computer at home doesn't respond the same as this one at work. I am
referring to the US system of collecting taxes. One can claim he is Married with 9 dependents at the beginning of the tax year on a form referred to as a W-2 and have no taxes withheld all year, then since the IRS will be too Y2K buggered to collect you can add to your cash ready
supply through this advantage to the situation.

Believe me, you are NOT alone. E-mail me if you like. Good luck and God bless

General: I lost your e-mail address in one of my frequent computer crashes Please re-send

TIA

gunrunnr@nwfl.net

EB = parrothead = compliment

Go Golf!

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnI__qb8ZtJiZmtG4nde4&FQ=v%

with emphasis that same manipulators have no economic realities to answer to as they know the slate will be wiped clean by Y2K . The implications are expect more of the same only perhaps more blatantly so as we approach 1/01/2000, and this in direct contrast to all expectations of recession next year!

Several people just have a need do that and this Y2K "opportunity" is a god sent gift for them.

Look carefully: many of those so called "Y2K specialists" ( those who spend most of their time on it ) used to specialize in crash predictions year after year. As their apocalypse scenarios never materialized, they now have turned to Y2K.

Once we will be passed January 1st 2000 without anything unusual, ( and I mean it, things will be surprisingly quiet! ) , they will find something else to scare people about. Some of them will get back to "crash predictions" and some others will find something new. Always on the basis that some preparation for the worst never hurts.

And life goes on.

If they are happy doing it, then I'm happy for them!

Skinny,

I hope that you consider some preparation for year 2000. Just in case.

I believe that between April 1999 and January 2000 we will witness a TOTAL destruction of world's capital markets. Silver and gold will not be sold at ANY price. Paper will be worthless.

Why April 1999? Thats when our state and federal government start their new fiscal year. We will have some problems between January 1999 and April 2000. Thats when some corporate insiders will be convinced of the magnitude of the problem.
But USA's number 1 employer, the federal government will fully get a taste of things to come starting in April.
Beware.

Paper stuff down
Real stuff up

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems
of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest
and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to
admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in
explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to
others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into
the fabric of their lives." -- Leo Tolstoy

I think yesterday's action on Newmont and the XAU qualify as Doji Star

buy signals.

Early morning Gold comments from "Hightower Report":

"The Asian trade is really good at predicting the actions of certain spec groups as they called the liquidation move seen Thursday suggesting that the stock market anxiety longs were ready to step out with losses. Reports Thursday that Peru's largest metals mining company had increased its gold output for the January through September time frame to 445,580 ounces from 379,010 ounces is the type of news that keeps getting the specs away from the gold a little longer. Even the South African market suffered selling as the bullion market softened up a sign the specs in that region are bailing out. Since the December gold made a 1 month low Thursday we think a 290.4 December trade will be made on this cycle down. If the Yen were to put in a startling performance because its economics are improving or economic talk around the globe turned bullish then gold could rally sharply, see what a tall order being bullish is for gold! The trade even balked with rumours that Germany was cutting rates. Russia overnight announced they would mint up to 20 to 40 tons of gold into coins as a replacement for ruble printing and also suggest they would use about 50 tons of gold backd securities."

Testimony of M. Hyatt to the US Gov't
http://www.michaelhyatt.com/mrhgoes.htm




------------------------------------------------------------------------


Awareness

I have detected a disturbing attitude in Washington and elsewhere as I have traveled the country. There are those who, if not saying it directly, are acting as if the people cannot be trusted with "dangerous information." This attitude betrays a fundamental presupposition about our citizens that I do not share: that is, if people know the truth they will act irrationally and without concern for their neighbors. While this may be true in isolated incidents, it is not true of our people as a whole, as any cursory reading of our history will show.

Some have suggested that if people know the truth, they will panic. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I say, "panic now and avoid the rush." People cannot panic for fifteen months. They probably cannot even panic for a week. If people are going to panic, fine. Lets get it out of our system, so that we can get down to the difficult business of emergency preparedness.

In contrast to the notion that the people cannot be trusted with the truth, I subscribe to another supposition: "the truth shall make you free." Our founding fathers believed ( and we ourselves have no doubt espoused ) that our republic cannot function properly without an informed citizenry. This is true in elections and it is also true in facing an uncertain future.

Our people must have full disclosure. Not merely the progress being made, but also the impact of not finishing. Not merely the optimistic vagaries of programmers under pressure and the calm assurance of public relations managers and their legal advisors, but specific, objective and routine reports outlining the number of systems in inventory, how many are mission critical, what percentage are fixed, and, based on current rates of progress, when a given organization expects to hit certain critical milestones. Even if this data is self-reported, it is better than no data at all.

Our people can handle the truth and will plan accordingly. But they cannotand will notdo this unless they are told the truth. In the absence of the truth, people only have their perceptions. And in our service-oriented, market-driven economy, these perceptions can shape reality in either positive or negative ways. For example, if consumers believe our financial system to be fundamentally stable, they will trust our banks and our system will function as normally as Y2K systems disruptions will allow. On the other hand, if consumers suddenly "wake up" in October of 1999 and overreact to any perceived threat to the financial system, they will want to withdraw their funds in a disorderly manner, and well end up with a good old-fashioned bank run. We also all know that a perceived crisis could rival the actual crisis from unready technology.

But the answer is not to limit the information that is disseminated. The answer is to increase that information flow now. Everywhere I and my colleagues go, we run across people who:

1.have never heard of this issue ( they say "Y2K-what?" ) ; 2.think that this is something Bill Gates is going to fix; or 3.think that Y2K is a publicity stunt ( I have had callers on the radio tell me that Y2K was obviously a gimmick Bill Gates thought up to make more money ) .



Furthermore, even our efficient, market-driven economy will face immense difficulties responding to increased consumer and business demand for products and services ( everything from power generators for a home to compliant robot components for a pharmaceutical company ) , unless our consumers and businesses become aware that they must start ramping up that demand now. Even the most efficient and flexible manufacturing company will be unable to handle a sudden 2000 percent spike in demand for its Y2K-compliant widgets without sufficient lead time.

Obviously, the solution to these and similar problems is awareness.

--------------------------------------------
Enough of Y2k

What of it's effect on the POG???
Same as the Euro???

Wither the noble metals direction?

Whatever happens there will be plenty of volatility
Between now and five years time.

It is a good time to stock up on gold, guns, and grub.

They aren't going to get any cheaper.
Not when the herd turns to run.

Excellent quotation. Of course, it can be taken either way. Guys like Gary North are pretty far out on a limb with their prognostications of doom. They discount the historical truth that humans have a pretty good record of coming together to solve a crisis when a strong bond of mutual interest exists. Still, making no preparation is foolhearty. Even the greatest optimists I know are putting away 6 months of cash to prepare for reduced access to funds and/or a period of unemployment arising from a significantly increased slowdown in the domestic and world economies, beyond the trend we're seeing already.
-EJ

@ one internet sight I saw an article that asked "experts" in the field to rate themselves from 1-10 on their opinion of the outcome of Y2K. 1 being no problem & 10 being the worst ( power grid failure ) . For my part

I would be a 9 which I think leaves just enough room to hope for some

rescue or better outcome than a 10. The 10 scenarios are truly frightening visions of what may happen. What I have discovered is that

when one expostulates to others on the subject who have not or maybe even have to some extent exposed themselves to information on the subject their response is directly related to their personal paradigms of the future. The nature of personal paradigms are not easily moved and are held dear and defended tenaciously by all- myself included. However,

most can agree that Y2K will have some impact on society. Most discourse is centered around- to what extent? I find it pointless to debate this. Again a 1 to 10 on a scale of probablity. I only advise/request that those who would debate research the available information on the web. I find the posts of those in the trenches ( which

you will only find on the web ) to be the only believable accounts as corporate heads have to answer to stockholder's liablity suits.

Did anyone else catch the story about the major news networks proposing to limit their news department's expenses buy buying news

stories from CNN. As if the dessemination of news wasn't limited enough.

Does the coincindence of this now strike anyone else as reeking with

portent of things to come?

I humbly submit that you are in denial of irrefutable facts regarding the impact of the Y2K problem. I suggest you seek readily available information regarding this subject from sources which you "trust". Your enlightenment may turn your opinion from "Y2K is a bunch of crap" to "Y2k is a humungous load of crap hitting an enormously massive ventilation device"

"NEW YORK, Oct 22 ( Reuters ) - The six major New York City banks did NOT borrow from the Federal Reserve's discount window, a Fed spokesman said. It was the end of the two-week bank maintenance period."

 Good catch Monkee Person. Now, wouldn't it be interesting to know WAS at the Window? Another hedge fund? An individual? mmmmm

"Still, making no preparation is foolhearty. Even the greatest optimists I know are putting away 6 months of cash to prepare for reduced access to funds and/or a period of unemployment arising from a significantly increased slowdown in the domestic and world economies, beyond the trend we're seeing already."

And this is the point. The Fed announced that they will print an additional $50 billion, it will not help. The combination of mass psychology ( bankruns, stockpiling ) and skyrocketing commodities prices
will make sure that no amount of cash will be enough.
Once the faith in the system wavers and shatters, the system breaks.
Today, the US investors and capital markets need a trigger to start their downward fall. Within 3-5 months y2k will be that trigger and it will set in motion a domino effect. We will see a deflation in commodity markets and a devastating deflation in equity markets.

SHOULD BE:
"We will see an inflation in commodity markets and a devastating deflation in equity markets."

Due to a satellite receiver malfunction, there will be no stock or mutual fund quotes on our site today. We sincerely apologize for this inconvenience and assure you that we are taking steps to make sure this does not happen again.

http://www.smartmoney.com

we have a large complement of peopleo at this
site as evidenced by the last few posts about y2k....
the hopi wrote of what we are fixing to encounter......
man and machine.......and their direction..

some have direction..others no idea other than to believe
the system can contain any chaotic event..

yes realistic...your gov't will take care of you...a smelly
hole...a little smelly sod...hells bells man...you'd feel as
if you were home!! well.. it would be bad for those not used to
these conditions....know what i mean jimmy dean?

carry on peopleo....the harshest winter ever approaches...the
ants are ready...the crickets chirping with abandon as their
bellies are full and the sun warm.....sublime..tp..

cherokee!;..wearing.a.2.cartridge.gas.mask....phew...

...still opening and closing my hand...making and destroying a fist...thinking...is this what it is like for AG...creating and destroying wealth...opening and closing my fist

http://www.amazon.com/covers/0/15/634/711/0156347113.l.gif

Gold: Open--292.80-293.20
High--292.95-293.35
Low--292.35-292.75
Close--292.60-293.00
Volume 43882kg Silver Volume: 353160 kg; Platinum Volume:44234 kg; Palladium volume 41476.5 kg
http://www.mitsui-gold.com/
Traders Comments: "Another quiet day. Have a good weekend!"

supplier of permapak food please

Tks

cpo

Opening and closing your hand...yes
Opening and closing your fist...no

The wealth of nations are their real goods and services, the hand.
Virtual wealth is the printing on the paper, the fist.

The Fed officials, despite their relatively cheerful tone, didn't rule out further rate cuts, which markets are widely expecting. Mr. Ferguson said that, with inflation so low, the central bank should be "as vigilant and forward-looking as possible to offset" any signs of slowing demand. And he indicated that the Fed would be willing to cut rates aggressively at any hint of a recession. "We must recognize that it takes some time for monetary policy to transmit into the real sector, and, therefore, it is probably better to be ahead of challenges, not reacting to events," he said.

So gold still does hold a certain fascination for you. I thought from your previous posts that you swore off the stuff. Please remember this is a golf forum.

"Nothing too special going on yesterday, but looking to be under pressure ( even if light ) most of the day. A stronger dollar in early australia/tokyo time saw gold being marked down below the 200 day moving average for spot, but with seemingly little trading.

It has been unable to bounce from the lows successfully, and unless the dollar comes under pressure we feel that gold may suffer further, probably in ny time. Silver has seen some light buying this morning, but its upper end is severely limited I believe. On gold, sell rallies to 295, but beware of the market getting too short. This may see a short term spike on gold, but recent events would point to gold going lower."

http://www.zdnet.com/chkpt/adstlink/www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/story/story_2399.html

Plagued by glitches in its new Windows 98 operating system, Microsoft will offer an update on Aug. 18. Of course, the company doesn't like to admit that its software has problems. So it says the update is just to add new multimedia features, not to fix bugs. Here's what's really going on: The new enhancement will make Windows 98 more useful and more stable. If you haven't upgraded already, wait until it appears.

-----
Y2K: THE GPS SYSTEM NEEDS ITS CLOCK RESET
http://www.businessweek.com/1998/41/b3599119.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/1998/41/b3599120.htm

Am still in possession of my stock. Am still waiting for a good price to sell.

Am still disillousioned.

As I wrote last time, there will be no peace in the gold markets until there is agreement on the role of gold in global monetary system one way or another.

This is still a good forum to pick up news though.

Live Long and Prosper.

...Too many posts today trashing the Y2k situation. Here is what it boils down to. There are 4 possibilities:

1 ) Nothing happens and we all celebrate about the human race having solved the most complicated project in human history. The Y2k proponents look like a bunch of silly doomsdayers and they feel real stupid about themselves. ( If you believe this one you are in denial and you and your family will suffer for it ) .

2 ) It turns out to be just a "bump in the road". Your ATM card doesnt work. You get a utility bill for 30 billion dollars. You and the person at the billing department have a good laugh and he/she corrects the error. ( If you believe this one there is some hope for you. You need to do some more research on your own being careful with regard to your sources of information ) .

3 ) It turns out to be quite a mess. Fortunately the lights are still on, but they are having problems regionally and disruptions in your service come and go. Your ATM doesnt work and the bank is closed due to a network shutdown. You know you will get your money eventually, but for now you are broke. Ooops! Social Security has never heard of you! You didnt back up your work history and now you are beat, big time. You begin to realize you could have prepared better without being one of those "looney people". You feel bad because your children have to eat popcorn every day. You sweat as you hear things getting worse instead of better. You call that relative who you thought was a nutcase and you ask for food with humility in your vioce. You accept his "I told you so", and you feel very stupid about yourself. ( I you believe this one, congratulations! You will probably make the proper preparations. Keep reasearching with wisdom and you'll be fine ) .

4 ) Everything will fail. We are thrown back to the stone age and we have to relearn how to do everything without the luxury of technology. ( If you believe this one you are one of those looney doomsdayers who are making disbelievers out of many people including the good folks here at Kitco ) .

Keep the faith. go gold, go silver.

FWIW My short term model gives a rally the last two hours
of the trading day.Scalp a few dollars more,other than that
we are still going down in the main picture.

The bullish leg to new record highs in the stock markets started at the very end of the month of October 1997. Visible on charts.

Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 21:21
cherokee ( @rod-serlings'-inter/dimensional/ship ) ID#344308:
october, historically speaking, has been
the month for traumatic events relative to
stocks...

look back to see forward......

we have less than 2 weeks before the GREAT crash
of '97 is upon us. it just came to me...incredible..
back, forward....history has shown what when
to expect the next crash....move over grass-hopper...

I agree that selecting a particular time interval for a massive decline in the equity market is impossible to prognosticate. However, do you contend that this market will double in size before it is halved?

The millennium computer bug could cause volatility on the London Metal Exchange
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/981022/14/tech-2000

Cyclist: Always appreciate your posts. However, this time, as in many other times, you quote your opinion, but fail to indicate the market you are referring to. Just constructive criticism because I enjoy your input. Thanks!!

Gwyz: I think your post of 10:43 is about the best I've seen recently on Y2k to sum up the situation. Realistic, but sane. Thanks!!

don't you think that there is a driving force for peolpe to pull money out of the market for the holiday season? or for a close out of a tax position? or to prepare for a new investment strategy for the coming year?

Closest thing I could find.
http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/ibra/links.html#food

Lots of good alcohol recipes with honey.

Might have to spend some time browsing this one.

Still looking.

Basically there are few sites outside the US that selling survival gear.

When you Aussies have Rosemount Shiraz "right down the street".

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alternative.htm

Top left-hand corner
Try the second search engine "Inference Search"

One of my favourites.

FWIW The market I referred to was the Xau,in particular NEM.
NEM is showing a very constructive chart and can be utilized
in a bounce of at least a buck.To add,SnP will close today in the negative within the same time frame.

sharefing, many thanks i will start browsing this site over the week end

thanks again

cpo

MAY2KLPY

Most Awesome Y2K Link Page Yet

I bow , .... my legs straight,...... palms flat on the ground......................
ohhhhhhhhhh ba..a..by........ I, my friend leave you with a quote...
"I felt so symbolic yesterday,
If I knew Picasso
I would buy myself a gray guitar and play".


Crow

http://www.wheatfirst.com/mktcom/daily_update.htm

"They [the Fed] are "talking the talk" but they are not yet "walking the walk," as they have only made the first two token tiny 1/4% cuts in the fed funds rate. As of yesterday, they started the new technique, of "jaw-boning." The papers are full this morning of Fed Governors and Presidents singing the same ditty. Don't Worry, Be Happy." Yeah!!!! If they think they can convince the markets of that, they will be surprised. If we are correct, that theme of no credit crunch, and still-healthy economy will be forgotten by January, 1999, as the chaos that is occurring in the world, and the soaring lay-offs that are being announced each day create weak Christmas sales. If we are correct, the problems of Japan and China and Brazil have not magically gone away overnight, and the teeny cuts in interest rates, are not the strong medicine that will have to be injected."

DoD Prepares to Help States Survive Year 2000
http://www.civic.com

Planning for an infrastructure collapse
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/statements/073198kyl.html

I see FARFEL is back .I assume he found some loose keys under his bed at the local Insane Asylum and removed his straight Jacket just in time to suck up to Bart and get reinstated here at Kitco. Its just a matter of time before he slanders many here at Kitco .The man is a Paranoid schizophrenic and deserves to listen to all Y2K posters and their common delusions.

realistic...

that's one...post the ones that were/are on the money...
then and now......your coup d'etats are as the inimitable
larvae chewing upon the leaf....lots of poop....no new scoop..

what happened to the us$ realistic? remember YOUR opinion...
well it was not your opinion...just a re-post of anothers
opinion..and one that required NO cognitave abilities......
bet you were glad!; ) you are known here....as i....

..the smell wafts regardless of who you plagerize, or whose opinions
you take for your own....yar....you are known.

cherokee!;..mr.perfect.not....har.dee.har.har.......haruuuuuuuumph!

zeeelander lawyer/scholar dude - touch

Sharefin - Just saw on the news channels that the US IRS ( tax dudes ) will be WhyTwoKay compliant after spending over ONE BILLION US DOLLARS of OUR monies. The head of the company stated this. They did say there would be some small glitches ( ? ) .....what is a small glitch vs a large glitch.....I dunno. They gave no facts for this just a short statement. I am not sure I fully believe 'em...........tick-tock. Anyway I agree, it is more pertinent to talk of it's effect on POG and other PM's, yes?

Gunnrunner - JimmyB and I will be sailing the good ship......uh huh. Fins to the left....fins to the right..........you're recent campaign WILL get you nowhere and you will polarize yourself from this group...........move on friend........tis only money...........friends are much more valuable...........

Some of my amigos do not yet have my NEW and IMPROVED ( ? ) email.......and it goes like this - eblm@cwix.com use it or lose it :- ) The old one will be cut off before too long.....don't remember when, I am not 'puta compliant...............I is the enemy of this here 'puta sometimes...............don't know why.....I bring it food and good beverage always......and I even adorn it with coins of various PMness........it's like a shrine. Perhaps I need candles..............hmmmmmm..........I even have a 'ptooe' ( did I spell that right? ) ...........oh well.

Silver - that's right........keep moving sideways...........your breakout will just be that much more severe.................hmmmm.

Who was that what put my name ( NYspeak ) in the same sentence as APH? What an honor I do not deserve......thanks anyway. I strive to one day walk in his shoes. It must be stated that APH would eat me up too........mostly;- ) I keep doing my homework and you should too.

Gold - weak.

Gollum - I will be blessed MANY times over........ohmy! Thanks for the tip.

Earl - good to see you again........anytime I can lay down a couple-o-anectdotes for ya just let me know :- ) I have a whole two of 'em.......did I ever tell you about the time.............. ( ? )

away.......


register to vote now

As gold surged towards 300 a little while ago, Goldman apparently called up a "senior mining house" and pleaded with them to sell into the rally; said they could secure the liquidity and give 'em "great rates".

All nonense, of course.

sam__A.

Someone kindly published a reference to an FT article by someone from the Cato Institute a couple of days ago. Can't seem to dig it up ( my browser keeps crashing when I set the date to anything but the current ) . Does somone else have it on hand?

TYIA,

sam__a.

I have changed my mind about the ramifications of Y2K. I think the only problem will be the drop down year list box on this page. Sorry for the emotional distress I may have caused those in denial.

XAU is at critical point and will break soon to the upside,next few trade days.

"The wealth of a Nation is in it's people." But when you look at the situation that the Japanese, who are considered to be intelligent & well educated, find themselves in, I'm having 2nd thoughts. Of course, with all the financial manipulations & unatural disruptions that have occured globally in recent decades, this period may we seen as an anomoly, mkt forces may reassert themselves & Japan may shine again. But that won't occur so long as the parasitic elites are in control.

The white buffalo have returned. They will trample the sheeple.

If I've got to walk to pick up that shiraz
I'd better have something to drink along the way.

Although were we're moving to there is a foster's vineyard.
Just over the next valley. ( :- ) ) )

The only one around. Fortunately.
----
http://www.idahopower.com/company/y2k_faq.html
Answers 5, 6, 7 speak volumes when one accepts that they are coming from the horses mouth.

CCJ @17-5/8 -5/8
AU @24-3/4 +1/8

does any one have anything tho say about CCJ and it's hovering?
it seems like a good buy at a P/E of 19.7 with earnings per share of .93

AU P/E 14.23 and E/S 1.73

comments?

"Failure to achieve full compliance with the year 2000 will jeopardize our way of life on this planet for some time to come." - Arthur Gross, the former CIO of the IRS
==========================
"The public faces a high risk that critical services provided by the
government and the private sector could be severely disrupted by the
Year 2000 computing crisis." - The GAO research
==========================
"More than one-third of the most important [government] systems won't
be fixed in time." - a house panel report issued in September ( SEE GROSS' STATEMENT ABOVE )
==========================
A just-released CIO KnowPulse ( TM ) poll offers yet another glimpse of
what high-tech executives are thinking about Y2K ( on top of the ZD /
Harris poll released last week ) . In case you thought the results of
the ZD poll were just a fluke, here come the numbers from CIO Magazine.
The poll was taken of 330 high-tech executives, many of whom are
actually responsible for solving Y2K problems at their own companies.
* 71% of them think the Millennium Bug won't be fixed in time ( or are
unsure about it )
* 22% say their company is stockpiling extra cash
* Only 8.4% said their company was finished with Y2K repairs
* 10% are stockpiling food, water, and generators
* 3% are heading for the hills ( relocating )
* 13% are upgrading personal defense, including buying firearms
* Only 22% are training their labor force to operate in manual mode
* 7% plan to put their money "under the mattress"
Full CIO poll story at:
http://www.cio.com/conferences/oct98/knowpulse.html
===================================================

***April 1997***
http://www.sia.com/year_2000/html/y2k_hearings.html

"Testifying last week before the National Commission on Restructuring the
Internal Revenue Service ( IRS ) , IRS Associate Commissioner Arthur Gross called his agency's Y2K conversion task "massive," an undertaking which will span 102 million lines of code and almost 50,000 applications. Gross said failure to take corrective action on date-based
fields could "result in the generation of millions of erroneous tax notices, refunds, bills, interest calculations, taxpayer account adjustments, accouting transactions and financial reporting errors."

***August 3, 1998***
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-08/03/048l-080398-idx.html

"In addition, 50 million lines of software code in 127 application
systems -- essential to processing returns and issuing refunds -- must be
overhauled. The updated code will run programs for the 1999 filing season. Afterward the IRS will run the clock forward and test the code's Y2K fixes."

HOW INTERESTING, in 15 months the IRS reclassified 72 million lines of code as not critical!!!
What happened?
This spells trouble.
=====================================
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/washtech/longterm/y2k/overview2.htm

"For Freddie Mac, like many businesses, fixing the Y2K problem is a matter of life and death. The company, chartered by Congress but owned by
stockholders, buys home mortgages from banks and sells them as securities on Wall Street, a process that's designed to give the banks money to make more home loans. Buying more than a million mortgages a year and processing the associated securities require colossal computer systems, all of which rely on dates  when a loan was issued, when it will expire  to make the right calculations.
To manage its $164 billion financial portfolio, the company has 1,200 pieces of software on its mainframe computers, totaling 12 million lines of code. Then there are more than 3,000 personal computers, many of which have spreadsheets and other applications that need revision. Everything needs to be checked and, executives have realized, almost everything needs some work.
"I don't think we've ever done anything this big  ever," said Jean Steele, a Freddie Mac vice president who oversees the Y2K project, which is likely to cost the company $50 million to $75 million. . . .
Freddie Mac started its Y2K efforts in 1994  far earlier than many others in Corporate America  and now has about 75 percent of its systems fixed.
Repairing the other 25 percent and testing everything now occupies 320 of
the company's 3,300 employees, including Young. . . .
*****Freddie Mac managers chuckle ruefully today over the prescient comments of some early programmers. In one application, after a date-related calculation, the author wrote a note saying: "This code will not work in 1/1/00. I hope that's not a problem." . . . "*****
===============================================

The September 30 deadline for all govt. agencies to be finished with
repairs,as mandated by President Clinton in his January speach, has come and gone. Not one agency made the deadline.
Now we are looking at a March 31, 1999 deadline for most companies and
government agencies. Guaranteed, most will miss that one, too.
Beware.

Apparently he attacked a woman, tore off her bra, made a slingshot & shot out the windows of the Asylum.

FWIW AU has more potential all the way

...opening and closing the hand...here's the church, here's the steeple, open the doors and see all the people...I'm still thinking...wealth of nations...BTW-Wealth of Nations was meant to be read in the context of Adam's Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiment-EXCELLENT book...which fits with your definition of a nation's wealth... ( which Smith claims is NOT gold ) ...open the hand...

1975--1 Jan:US abolishes restrictions on citizens buying, selling or owning gold ( formerly needed Treasury license ) .

1975-January: First US gold auction ( 2 million oz auctioned; less than half bid for ) .
1975--30 June: Second US gold auction (  million oz ) .
1975--31 August: Group of 10 major industrial countries and Switzerland agree that there would be no attempt to peg price of gold and that total stock held by the IMF and the monetary authorities of the G10 countries would not be increased. IMF's Interim Committee agrees to disposal of 50 mn oz ( one third ) of Fund's gold. 25 mn oz to be sold and surplus devoted to a Trust Fund which would extend concessional loans to low-income members and the other 25 mn oz to be restituted to members at the official price.

1976--2 June: First IMF gold auction.

1978--1 April: 2nd Amendment to IMF Articles of Agreement comes into effect. Gold's formal role in international monetary system disappears.
1978--23 May: US gold auctions resume.

1979--13 March: European Monetary System established. Those participating in its exchange rate arrangements must - and other members can - swap 20% of gold and US$ reserves on rolling quarterly basis with European Monetary Cooperation Fund for ECU
1979-November: Final US gold auction. During the two phases ( 1975; 1978/79 ) some 530 tonnes ( 17 mn oz ) were sold.
1980--7 May: Last of 45 IMF gold auctions. 25 mn oz ( = 778 tonnes ) were sold in all at average price of $240 ( lowest/highest prices $109/$712 ) .

1982-March: US Gold Commission reports to Congress. Official holdings of 264 mn oz should certainly not be reduced to zero and a minority favored no reduction at all.
Year|Averge|-Low-.|High
1982|375.80|296.75|488.50
1981|459.75|391.25|599.25
1980|612.74|474.00|850.00
1979|306.67|216.55|524.00
1978|193.24|166.30|243.65
1977|147.72|129.40|168.15
1976|124.82|103.50|140.35
1975|161.03|128.75|186.25

Average U.S. $ prices are based on the London PM fix.Highs and Lows are based on both AM and PM fixes. Source: Gold Fields Mineral Services
22 year average of $350.94
All above data from World Gold Council

COMMENTS:
Please note-USG & IMF publicly selling, POG rising.

Please note-1982 US Gold Commission report to congress: "should certainly NOT be REDUCED to ZERO"  folks, that in NO way suggests that the majority wanted to hold on to 264 mn oz! We may count ourselves most fortunate if there is 15 mn ounces left in the cupboard!

Michael Armstrong, CEO of AT&T says the communications industry needs 60,000 years ( I presume staff-years ) of testing in 443 days ( domestic and international ) .

Both DJI and XAU are showing signs of a big move coming.

Both could go either way, but tend to show a downward bias - XAU in particular. Both seem to have resistance: DJI for an upswing, XAU for a downswing. But I had a medium strength buy signal on XAU from monday ( never confirmed ) and a much stronger buy signal from Thursday's open.

The RUT, MSH, INX, NASDAQ are still climbing within the tip of an ascending wedge, which is usually a sign of a steep drop coming. But it may be preceeded by a speculative blowup before crashing ( like the bonds did just before reversing into the current downtrend ) .

Any opinions?

Is there any ( verifiable ) information that leads you to believe that the US currently has far less gold than officially stated? If true, they will have been caught in a MAJOR lie.

In a recent radio interview, John Sagrin a nuclear engineer, had said that all nuclear plants should have had their repairs completed on JULY 1, 1998!!! Leaving them 12 months for testing and bug fixing.
WHY? Because nuclear reactors require 6 months to cool their cores.
NONE are ready.
By July 1, 1999 NRC will HAVE to shut down ALL nuclear powerplants!

"Senior Military Pentagon officials have been working closely with senior officials at Wall Street to perfect several scenarios that could quickly be put into action once Wall Street crashes." - U.S. Under Secretary of the Navy, the Honorable Jerry MacArthur

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/metcalf/980803.comgm.html

Date: Fri Oct 23 1998 01:43
sharefin ( 50% death rates ) ID#284255:
If Y2k goes bad is there going to be any foreign aid, medicine or food distributed to
these countries who rely so heavily upon it?

me
The U.S. natzi gov't probably would'nt be able to attack & destroy pharmaceutical cos in small 3rd world Countries.

Perhaps the crashing of Wall Street is a part of the plan?

Korodny: Thanks much for the Don Hays URL!

Foreign [i.e. not English] banks and brokers have reacted with outrage to the Japanese government's decision to tighten at the last moment curbs on 'short selling' of shares which come into effect today.

HEDGE FUNDS UNNERVED: Hedge Funds reacted with confusion to yesterday's decision by Japan to tighten short-selling rules. Julian Robertson's $20bn Tiger fund has been hit by the rise in the value of banking shares in particular.

Meaden, director at Tass Management research group, said the new rules were likely to affect many funds, although it was too early to say how hard. 'A big play for lots of people in the past has been shorting the Japanese market. This will certainly curtail the way they manage and the way they wish to manage'"

Silverbaron@the.wonderful.world.of."IS" Evidential material that moves one from 'suspicions' to 'probabilities'. {:- )

is that becase AU earings are from Au and stones while CCJ earnings are predominantly from U and not Au.

I believe by March 99 you will not be able to get delivery of freeze dried, dehydrated or bulk long term storage foods until after January 2000! 6 months ago the wait for Survival Foods products from producers was 6-8 weeks. NOW the back orders at Walton Foods is 6 -8 mo., Ready Reserve and Alpine Aire are 16 weeks. The Mormans believe in always having food stored up for emergencies and operate their own local canneries. Our LDS ( Mormons ) cannery had the largest order of food ever last month at 30,000 lbs. THIS MONTH IT IS OVER 70,000 lbs. The system is jammed up and getting worse every day. Regular supermarket food is not scarce yet but all long term storage food producers are seeing huge backlogs. Thier equipment is working at maximum and there is not enough time to expand. BUT its not to late.
If you are on a budget and cannot afford a 1 year dehydrated food supply for $995.00 try doing it yourself:
Sportsmans guide at 888-800-3006 has reconditioned Food Saver ( the best ) vacuum sealers for $99.97 ( retail $200 ) and food dehydrator for $30. Now you can start drying your own food and vacuum sealing in plastic bags OR mason jars with the attachment. Buy bulk bags of beans and rice from Sams and Costco cheap. Also, did you know Tuna and spam lasts up to 5 years!. When you go shopping pick up extra cans of food you usually eat and at a minimum try to have at least 3 months of food on hand.


This y2k thing is no joke and all of us can think of why we should have extra food on hand. It could be earth quake, tornado, terrorist attack, El Nino/ Nina, nuclear strikes or just plain good old common sense. Next time your child or grand baby comes to you and says  Im hungry think about what you will say in January 2000! It doesn't have to cost a lot to be prepared and you can always eat what you have stored. I plan on donating some my stored food to charity if y2k turns out to be a non event and writing it off my taxes. BUT there will always be at least a 1 year supply of food in my house for my family. I write my thoughts not to scare you but to encourage you to be prepared. I am a Christian and encourage everyone to seek out our lord JESUS because no matter what your problem he is your answer! I love you and pray for your health, security and salvation.

FWIW The demand equation for U is strong,the flip side
is the 2yk question.Gold is a question mark in The past Russian empire.CCJ is a tradeable stock,it has a nice bottom config.
AU has better earnings,and I will rather bet my money with the
better earnings and dividends.Chart looks outstanding.
The Snp poised for a quick fake rally and an oppotunity to short.
Gold will find its bottom between 11:00 and 12:00 pst

I programmed main frame computers for thirty years.
Most of my work was done for Banks & Savings &
Loans.

A large amount of the code in a given system has to do
with dates and date manipulation. This is what has to
be corrected, world wide.

In my day, we wrote our own application software, so
we became proficient programmers. For the past
twenty years, Financial Institutions ( and most other
business ) have used "packaged" applications.
Programmers of today are charged with the responsibility
of modification and maintenance of existing packaged
applications.

Lots of work needs to be done. Not enough "real"
programmers are available to perform the task. Just
fixing the dates, using today's available programming
force will be a daunting task. The "bugs" generated
by the fixes will be abundant.

The Government area is a real concern. Programmers
who do government work are notoriously SLOW.

Every time a new law is passed it effects a large number
of government computers causing massive modifications
to existing programs. THE GOVERNMENT WILL
NOT BE READY FOR Y2K. Perhaps 3/4ths of
the remaining computers WILL be ready. Since computers
network together, we are going to see some real chaos
caused by those who failed to meet the hard target date.

The immense cost of these projects will have a serious impact
on profitability for most Corporations.

I admit, that some are painting the picture much worse than it
will probably wind up being. You could take the best case,
and worst case scenarios and come up with perhaps a mid point
scenario that will be bad enough to effect every human being.

In everything, you can find opportunity. Y2K presents
opportunities for financial gain. This is an opportunity that may
not present it's self again in your life time.

A deep recession is a certainty. Unrest will occur in the large
cities. A lot of debt will be unwound during this time frame, and
unemployment will be a real problem. You should think about
taking advantage of this opportunity. Perhaps you should also
prepare to weather 1-2 years of bad times so you wont get too
skinny.

Me, I have some gold and some silver to help me financially
during these times. It is possible that cash could be king again
for a period of time before inflation is ignited. You may have to
protect your property during this time frame. Best to have the
equipment for doing this.

Don't be a grasshopper Skinny! Some older, wiser people
have been there and seen what is coming. Even if Y2K goes
picture perfect, we are in for problems ahead.

Every 70 years, people have to gain experience that will be
used again in the future History-----it does repeat.
YES? It's your time to get your experience!

The Government is preparing for Y2K. The IRS has spent
a bundle on automatic weapons & riot gear. They WILL NOT
be computer compliant for the year 2000. But they WILL
collect the taxes needed to pay the politicians salaries. All
the other governmental agencies have prepared for Y2K by
developing contingency plans for anarchy. But, their computers
will NOT be fully Y2K compliant. Even WJC knows that
government computers will be a total mess on 1-1-2000.
He only has to stonewall for 10-12 more months in order to
declare a national emergency and get 4 more years in office.

Those who will not learn from history are doomed to learn the
hard way. Why not emulate Warren Buffet? He is ready, even
if all his paper profits are lost. WB is a wise old guy who can
see clearly into the future based on his knowledge of the past.

The world will not end. Many people who are prepared will
come out of this pending chaos much wealthier than they were.

WJC, AG & RR all have their thumbs in the dike. But the pressure
is building up, and new cracks are appearing everywhere. We
( perhaps ) will soon see a level playing field for currencies that may
be used as the launching pad for another try at a global economy.

Gold, Silver, protective devices? Can't be too bad an idea.

The CIO poll also says execs indicated they were pretty fall along on fixing Y2K bugs:

24.6% Approximately 50% done
56.6% Approximately 75% done

So more than 75% of repondents said they are 50% to 75% done with more that a year left to go. I'd say that's pretty encouraging.
-EJ

!

FWIW the low in the XAU will be around 11:00 pst

Possible Y2K effects on gold mines:

http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,27854,00.html?st.ne.87.head

Comments?

Looks to me that first support exists at Gold DEC 290 and XAU 63...I would be surprise we reach these levels this afternoon. WOuld think that the low will be next mid-week.

On what are you basing your forecast of a low this afternoon ?

FWIW this is a 2/6 hour relief rally,only to be traded with
highly liquid stocks.My plat tells me to buy.

i made a typo. it was a bid of 0.002 ( not 0.02 ) for 150,000 warrants. ahh... to have an option controlling $3 million of NAB stock at $300 ( excluding brokerage ) ...

if only for a while...

what's the odds of systemic collapse this coming week?

btw, i'm highly impressed with the Subaru Impreza WRX :- ) -- gotta get myself one of those when i'm a semi-squillionaire.

http://members.aol.com/gkilli1/home/y2ksigns.html

The Year 2000 Disaster
http://members.aol.com/gkilli1/home/y2k.html

Hi, can anyone remember the URL to check Y2K date compliancy ?
I think Sharefin linked the URL some months back.
I have recently purchased a new PC and would like to check my clocks.
Thank you in advance.

G o G o l d

A lot of the mining companies are not asleep:

GEMCOM SOFTWARE INTERNATIONAL INC

INCO LTD

- Gemcom Signs Contract With Inco

Gemcom Software International Inc., a leading software supplier to

the earth resources industry, announced that it has signed a contract

with Inco Limited's Manitoba Division to migrate Inco's MEBS ( Mine

Exploration Borehole System ) mainframe database to a client-server

environment based on Gemcom's database management software applications.

The migration project solves year 2000 computer issues by moving data from non-year 2000 compliant mainframe based programs to Windows NT and SQL client- server architecture, which satisfies year 2000 requirements.

Training is included in the contract and completion is slated for the end

of 1998.

The solution will be developed around Gemcom's core product, Gemcom

for Windows, and will provide overall enhanced database compatibility.

Gemcom's open database standards will allow other Windows based

programs to access vast amounts of information contained within Inco's

borehole database, currently holding data for more than 30,000 boreholes.

The project required some re-engineering of Gemcom's current database

solutions and the resulting client-server application, the development of

which will be partially funded by the project, will be offered as an option

to other Gemcom clients wishing to move to a client-server environment.

Peter Franklin, President and CEO of Gemcom stated, "We have been

building our strength in Information Technology solutions over the past

year as part of our growth initiative. The Inco project demonstrates the

value of this initiative and confirms our ability to deliver high level

enterprise solutions, as well as our world-class software applications to

our customers."

The project also calls for the development of a new Safety Search

option, which utilizes database information to determine if new

excavations will intersect any geological or engineering boreholes. These

safety searches are required to ensure that the borehole collar and

closest point of intersection with mine excavations are either sealed or

guarded during blasting operations. The Safety Search option will also

become a new product in Gemcom's current software suite. Safety

compliance regulations continue to increase globally, and the Company

believes this new product will be of value to many of its current and

future customers.

Gemcom develops, markets, sells and supports technical software for

the mineral exploration and mining industry. Its products are used for

mine design and planning, manipulation of drillhole samples data and ore

body modelling. Gemcom's software has over 1700 installations with more

than 800 companies in over 70 countries. Gemcom is a Vancouver-based

Company with offices in eastern Canada, the USA, England, Australia,

Chile, Peru and Brazil.

http://www.gemcom.bc.ca

"My plat tells me to buy"

What is "My plat" ?

BTW, for now the low is at 14:00:21 EST ( 11:00:21 PST ) .

Hmm could have set my watch

Sorry to be so late, but a big interruption. That was a good overall view of coin sales etc. My question is how do you see the demand for the smaller size coins? It appears to me that the larger portion of the population would be attracted to the smaller sizes, which now are lower cost in their view. I'm working on a 10 grain gold coin minting which has only weight and purity denomination. 10 grains .99995 pure for the possible time when the FRN is either "worthless" or not available. I would appreciate your comments plus or minus. Thanx, Charlie

Lots of good put warrants on our banks.
But a week to go is a tough call.

I'm thinking another nudge higher on the dow before the swing rolls over.
Did you see the swing chart I do for OZ stocks?
I also overlay the swings for OZ puts and calls.
They are far more volatile and sensitive.

-----------------
Great charting package.
Thanks to Flash. ^o-o^
http://www.equis.com/java/ms4java800.html

am thinking about buying some gold futures and taking delivery of the 100 oz gold bars. I believe this is the ONLY way to buy gold close to spot! Anyone know how I can buy 500 oz. of gold at or close to spot. Any thoughts on this? We have some smart people here at Kitco, someone must know something about gold futures!

Does anyone have information on taking delivery? How pure are the bars? How much does it cost to ship? Any dealers out there that will buy them from me? Does anyone sell the 100 oz. bars besides COMEX? Was it Tylor Rose that tried to take delivery last year?

Are you familiar with "Pieces of Eight"?

You know, I'm glad you asked that, and I hope somebody answers, because I've been wondering the same thing. It might be interesting to purchase calls against a future with the intention of exercising it if the price moves up, taking delivery. Anybody got experience ?

I believe that in American Colonial times various currencies were used - colonial scrip, and various coins including Spanish gold coins. These gold coins had too much value for even large purchases so the coins were clipped, or cut into portions of Eight, thus the term "Pieces of Eight".

Yes. Have seen the hand stamped type. What's up?

pieces of eight are silver: two bits, four bits, six bits, a dolloar. Gold is in doubloons or .....

Now he's demanding that the U.S. release Pollard-the spy who seriously comprimised U.S. military intelligence. Of course it helps to have 80% of the legislators in his back pocket & be dealing with a lame duck spineless President.

What people were saying is that they trust the US and Can mints, and that was what they were aiming for. The 20% premium on the smallish coins ( 1/20 or 1/10 oz ) bothers people, but they think in terms like "so I go to the store with a $300 bill?" - There is also some worry about fakes, and a distaste for testing.

In order to lower the premium on the small coins you need to shorten the supply chain from mine or broker to retail customer. You need a recognized brand name that people would trust besides the mint ( a major bank? ) in any case. Also an anti-counterfit measure that is easy to test - or makes tampering self apparrent. I have a few ideas to talk over with my dealer.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/pickup102398.html

You'll find a few test programs here
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k.htm

Look for the 'Y2k Testing' section.
Have a look at 'Y2k Utilities'

The ZD Net test is linked there.
But they changed the test so that it will not show if your RTC is non-compliant.

I had a discussion with Mitch Ratcliffe from ZDNet about this.
Seems lots of people were complaining that their PC's were failing this test but the overall test was passing the PC's.
So they changed the program to pass RTC's.

????????Makes one wonder???????

If I could find a market for the 100 oz. bars at spot I would be a player. Dec 98 futures are 293.60 per oz. and a Dec. 99 290 put option is $980. for 100 oz contract or $9.80 oz. Hmmmm 293.60 + $9.80 = $303.40 for each oz of gold with a guaranteed price of $290 until Dec. 99! THAT'S 4.4% Downside risk.

FWIW Got fill 21 5/16.

..two bits..four bits...stock pricing in 1/8s...

yes, a week is a close call, but i think i'm turning gambler. according to my calculations, a 20% fall in NAB price would bring a 10000% profit ... hehe... better odds than the casino anyday.

i do hold longer term put warrants ... including Telstra and QAN.

btw, why don't you link your swing charts from your http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm page?

Excellent point. It loks like the possibility of the near future being a time when larger gold coins are too "big" to deal with everyday commerce at their original size. If FRN's are going to be either "worthless" or unavailable, there will be a need for very small gold coins because the junk silver is not nearly sufficient in quantity and even a 1/20 oz coin will be "large" in value relative to everyday business- if there is everyday business. If things smooth out, the value of any gold coin will certainly not deteriorate. After a survey of about 20 mints, including several national mints, I have found that only two private mints and one national mint can handle a 10 grain coin. At today's tech, that is the smallest coin that can be minted by a credable mint. It might end up being necessary to have a 1 grain ( 1/480 oz ) or even 1/100 0z piece, but so far this is not practical today. That would be something- pieces of 100!!

Want to obtain cheap AU? Buy 24kt casting grain from KitCo or any Refinery. It is granular pure stuff that manufacturing gold companys use to make things in gold. Its very portable, easy to resell...any jeweler can use it and you can buy it in small amounts, usually sold by the pennyweight for as little as $ 2.50 over spot. I buy and sell it all the time. Its very easy to carry,conceal.store,sell or do whatever with. Next to buying old scrap gold its the cheapest way to buy 24kt AU.
Check this out......I've done it for years FWIW

I haven't used this site yet myself but had it in my recorded notes

The Mid America market in Chicago trades a 1 kilo contract...specs call for 1 kilo bar delivery....nice size...besides lets think metric...ha..
I see onlt one "problem"...will there be enough for us all!!!

Before you "buy" either have a rich uncle ( to put up the margin calls
if it drops limit down ) or be disaplined enough to use a stop!!!!...let's not lose the farm!!

Just a thought..Chicken man..

ALL: This is somewhat off topic but many here will be interested. Those of you who are not can skip this. Yesterday, my wife took the kids to see the new Long Beach Aquarium which is supposed to be quite spectacular. I couldn't go because of previous commitments. While they were there they were surprised to see that former President Reagan was also visiting with his entourage. My son managed to get right up close to him. ( I guess the Secret Service doesn't view 4 year-olds as a massive threat. ( :- ) ) My wife, who is an Emergency Physician, said he looks to be in very good physical shape and when he was leaving the cafeteria after lunch, the whole place broke into applause. He turned and waved and seemed to be quite aware of what was going on. Alzheimer's is a terrible disease in it's debilitating dffects on the mind but so far, at least, President Reagan still seems to be able to enjoy his life. That is nice news to hear! Nice, also, to know that people still appreciate and respect him.

All,

Does anyone know where I can find a chart of the South African Rand on the web? Also, has anyone seen an analysis of its performance?

Many thanks.

Thanks for the URL. There are mines that
use Hydro Power and generators to create their own
power. Perhaps something to factor in when
buying gold stocks.

Your from Colorado? I spend 3-4 weeks up there
most summers. I usually hang out up around Leadville
in my motor home.. Camping out, fishing, hiking,
shooting up tin cans. All good practice for Y2K
worst type scenarios. Fish & beans. Yes---

My favorite spot is Camp Hale. It's close to the
Colorado Trail. I was camp ground host there one
summer. Good survival training in that area. The
greatest challenge is to keep an adequate supply
of Wellers. Wood, water & Wellers--beans rice & fish.

One case of Wellers & I could last there for 6 months.

So much for Y2K preparedness.

Yeah, and I like the options better because you don't run into limit problems, and you aren't tied to the deal if you can't come through with the cash on the date ( like you are on a futures margin ) . If the price moves and your option gains value, you can always just sell the option if you don't have the cash to exercise. Sounds nice. Weird thinking of using options, for like, what they were really meant to be used for *grin*.

give it a rest after 7 days? PREDICTIONS?????

Good points. However, I have not got a mine supply, refined and made into blanks, which costs relatively significantly. I do have a source of a simple scale which can check a coin be dimension and weight to verify the purity. The mint mark can certainly be copied, but the only weight that would suffice is much more expensive than gold. Also may be radioactive. Many detail problems are in the pipeline, so would like to hear further from you. Thanx, Charlie

Jeremy - This site has a free Y2K tester for PC's: www.year2000.com ( Guaranteed or your money back! ) You can search in Yahoo for others.

Of course I see this Y2K issue as a major problem for the economy, but I think that I've figured out a fix. I'm serious. Please let me have some opinions from you technical experts. Every company and government organization could do the following three steps.

First phase: Identify every single data file with a date. Identify every single piece of hardware ( including operating system ) that contains a date. ( Forget the programs and code. )

Second phase: For the DATA, write routines ( scripts ) that will find each date, and edit the date to subtract ten years. ( This seems like a fairly simple job, somebody could make a lot of money with an automated tool for this! )

Third phase: Edit the data, and set the hardware/OS dates back ten years.

Would love to get back to Camp Hale again...Caught some HUGE rainbow trout there. It is not far from Gunnison, a neat old Frontier town as old west as it gets far up in the Rockies. Use to have to take a Jeep trail 25 miles up a mountain to get to it.

IMF official says sees cyclical correction to dollar
TOKYO, Oct 23 ( Reuters ) - Flemming Larsen, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund's research department, said on Friday he thinks a cyclical correction to a strong U.S. dollar is coming soon.

In a speech in Tokyo, Larsen said that if the U.S. economy is slowing, especially compared with Europe, ``one would expect to see a cyclical correction ( to the dollar's previous strength ) , which I think is on the way.''

Until recently, the U.S. economy had been the world's strongest, but the dollar's rise was unwarranted by U.S. medium-term fundamentals, Larsen said.

Although U.S. growth is slowing, he added, however, that he did not see a ``significant risk of a recession in the U.S. and certainly not a long one.''

Indeed, he said U.S. and European authorities have the flexibility to further lower interest rates if necessary.

On Asia's financial woes, Larsen said ``there seems to be some cause for optimism that the crisis may be bottoming out in the not-too-distant future,'' given such factors as improved market confidence and policy actions by several countries.

But he predicted more bad news for the real economies for three to six months ``that may not be well viewed by financial markets.''

``The risks to the world economy are still on the downside and the crisis is not over yet,'' he said.

But on one crisis-hit country that has been a focus of recent attention, Larsen said he ``would not be surprised'' if Brazil and the IMF soon reach a financing agreement. He did not elaborate.

A Brazilian delegation met with the IMF in Washington last weekend, seeking agreement on an aid deal coupled with a fiscal adjustment programme.

U.S. Treasuries touch new lows, bounce back

*US Treasuries reach new lows, recover as selling wave passes.
*Light volume said to exaggerate moves, traders say mkt quiet.
*Hedge funds, cen banks seen selling. Retail flow light, mixed
*Corp, mtgage-backed debt spreads narrowing, trend hits Treas.
*Looming corp, Treasury supply prompting portfolio adjustment.

We both know why.......to make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$..ha!!

Cock-a-doodle-doo!!!

The bond boys gave me 10 more...cluck..cluck..cluck

Not even a thought..Chicken man...

Thank you for your assistance
Best regards
Jeremy

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^BVSP&d=3mm

Any thoughts regarding Japan's recent

nationalization of Long-Term Credit Bank?

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101b.htm

I don't believe it, RANGY taking off in a down market 27/32.
Some good news ,anybody know?

Here's a link that will give you almost any currency chart you can think of, as well as precious metals in any currency.

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

I forget, you holding PUTs against 30yrs ? If the equities slip down the other side of Sharefin's swing, I would think they might get pumped back up there a little bit, what do you think ?

NOBODY goes shopping at COMEX! Think of COMEX as a gathering place where producers and consumers come togther to "place their bets" and lock in prices of gold that they feel are favorable to them for the future date at which they will sell the gold or buy the gold. The gold itself need never pass through COMEX. These futures contracts are settled in dollars. The producer always sells at the current spot value ( to a refinery, for example ) and the price differential is paid in dollars through the COMEX contract. Likewise for the user who wants gold. He ALWAYS buys it at spot value ( from a refinery, for example ) and the price differential is paid in dollars through the COMEX contract.

If you want a kilogram or a 100 oz bar, than let nothing stop you from buying it at spot value today! Why monkey around with futures contracts? If you don't want 100 individual 1 oz bullion coins, then tell your bullion dealer what size bar you want. This is the way to buy gold, my friends. Cobra had some suggestions a short time ago that are very good. Gold can be bought at spot value in many forms!

There must be some marvellous buys amongst those put warrants.
The warrant market is a study all by itself.
So many series with different ratios, strikes and dates.

One could trade them and nothing else.
I was running a MS Access database on them but have let it go stale as I am not trading.

The US swing chart is linked to my master page.
Down close to the bottom right corner.
But I have not been pasting the OZ swing.
I only get the data weekly ( monday's AFR ) to do the calculations.
I can easily start posting it if you are interested.
It runs off the OZ all industrials, gold index and oil index, plus the puts and calls.

Hopefully the site will be undergoing major surgery soon.

Yeah, but what dealer is going to give you the option of taking delivery in december at 290 if you choose to exercise it *smile*, no where but on the exchange. You called a dealer and asked him to do that, he'd laugh.

Silverbaron,

Bonzai! Just what I was looking for. Thank you, kind sir.

Half of knowledge is knowing where to find it. Now all I need is the other half. ( :^ ) .

Aragorn:
Could you post your

Aragorn III ( 10/23/98; 09:39:23MDT - Msg ID:739 )
To Goldfly...we zero in on the crux of your problem

here at kitco?

chicken man:

those old gold coins are being melted for marketing:
- bricks for the banks.
- Eagles for IRAs.
- grain for castings.
- and what they dont melt they will sell to collectors.

gianni:
bits com in two flavors:
escudos and reales

I know nothing, I'm no geek. ^o-o^
But I heard another interesting cure today.

Create a virus - but one that is not evil.
A Y2k virus that fixes PC Y2k problems.
And release it over the net.

An automatic PC fix that travels fast globally and analyses and cures the bugs.

It was suggested as a way to infiltrate the many millions of PC's to get them cured.

I know not of the possibilities but the thought may have potential.

http://www.y2ksupply.com/index.asp?PageID=Indonesia

SDRer
The imposition of restrictions on Short-selling shares in Japan is ANOTHER ripple on the foreshore, ANOTHER warning of the tsunami that approaches.
This is exactly the same tactic used by COMEX when it forced the Hunts out of the silver game. The problem was, of course, that the Hunts had winning positions and that the losers controlled COMEX. Some people call it cheating, others say it's just business.

The only thing free in this freemarket is the freedom to lose your shirt. :- )

FWIW Lousy price pattern,sold NEM.

IF THIS ISN'T THE MOST UNDERVALUED STOCK ON THE MARKET I WOULD BE AMAZED. TRADING $.09. Similar results released a year ago and the stock shot to $0.74. Hello goldbugs this is a good one!!!

East Africa Gold Corporation Friday, October 09, 1998

Interim Drilling Results From Buckreef and Kitongo Prospects

EAST AFRICA GOLD CORP ( "EAG-V;EAFGF-L" ) - Interim Drilling Results From Buckreef and Kitongo Prospects

East Africa Gold Corp. announces interim results from a drilling programme currently in progress on the Buckreef and Kitongo prospects are announced. The directors are encouraged by the results to date and the remaining programme continues at a steady pace.

Highlights to date from Buckreef and Kitongo.

First four holes out of twenty-eight holes from Buckreef returned:

BMRCD185 18.25m @ 15.41 g/t Au from 118-136.25m

BNMCD186 16.30m @ 31.01 g/t Au from 127.3-143m.

BMRCD188 22.30m @ 4.53 g/t Au from 127-149.3m.

BMRCD189 5.00m @ 4.07 g/t Au from 157-162m.

7.00m @ 2.21 g/t Au from 173-180m.

12.00m @ 2.52 g/t Au from 191-203m.

Main Zone at Kitongo:

KTRC089 51m @ 3.70 g/t Au from 0-51m.

KTRC097 32m @ 9.07 g/t Au from 9-41m.

KTRC098 32m @ 3.20 g/t Au from 0-32m.

KTRC100 35m @ 2.74 g/t Au from 0-35m.

KTRC101 6m @ 4.67 g/t Au from 0-6m.

22m @ 3.15 g/t Au from 21-43m

Full results to date are detailed in Tables 1 & 2.

Klaus Eckhof, Director for Exploration

1. BUCKREEF PROJECT An RC / diamond "tail" drilling programme commenced at Buckreef in early September.

The programme is designed to test the main Buckreef Mineralised Shear zone at a vertical depth between 50 and 120m underneath the existing oxide resource. Previous drilling by Kinross in 1995 included relatively few deeper drillholes, most of which intersected economic grades. The 1998 programme includes 24 drillholes for approximately 5000m. This will test a 280m strike length of the mineralized zone ( plan attached ) .

Results

Drilling commenced on Section 2120N at the southern end of the proposed programme. The first result was 18.25m @ 15.41g/t in BMRCD185 ( 118-136.3m ) . This leaves a high potential for high grade mineralisation further to the south. Moving northward, the second hole BMRCD186 returned 16.3m @ 31.01g/t ( 127.7-143m ) . This remarkable result is higher than any previous drilling at Buckreef and suggests 'super high grade' shoots may be present.

Results for the other two holes BMRC187 and BMRCD188 entered stopes from previous mining. However both holes still returned significant grades. BMRCD188 returned 22.3m @ 4.53g/t outside of the stope, suggesting significant mineralisation has been left behind even in areas previously thought to have been extracted.

The next two holes to the north have been completed and a zone of mineralisation similar to the first holes was intersected. Assays should be at hand in the following week.

TABLE 1: SUMMARY RESULTS FOR BUCKREEF RC / DIAMOND DRILLING 9/10/99

Hole North East Dec Az Depth

BMRCD185 2120 1090 -62 degrees 270 degrees 144.2

BMRCD186 2140 962 -60 degrees 90 degrees 150.6

inc.

BMRCD187 2160 1070 -60 degrees 270 degrees 81

BMRCD188 2160.6 970 -60 degrees 90 degrees 150

inc.

BMRCD189 2160 955 -60 degrees 90 degrees 204

inc.

Hole Intersection Width Grade Remarks

BMRCD185 118-136.25 18.25 15.41 Core Intersection

BMRCD186 127.7-143 16.3 31.01 Core Intersection

127.7-139 11.3 42.4 Core Intersection

BMRCD187 Hole Abandoned RC hole - hit stope

BMRCD188 127-149.3 22.3 4.53 Core Intersection

143-149.3 6 10.97 Core Intersection

BMRCD189 157-162 5 4.07 Core Intersection

173-180 7 2.21 Core Intersection

191-203 12 2.52 Core Intersection

191-195 4 4.41 Core Intersection

Azimuth relevant in grid north.

Commentary

It is clear that the results to date suggest some very high grades and significant widths of mineralisation exist at depth at Buckreef. Also of note is that a significant zone of grade depletion appears to be present on some sections at around 30-40m depth. It is possible that this represents a partially leached zone, and that the primary mineralisation ( mostly untested in previous drilling ) is of much higher grade. A similar scenario is present at Bulyanhulu where the top 50m of mineralisation is partially leached and sporadic in character. It was partly as a result of this that Bulyanhulu was explored for 20 years without the true significance of its potential being realised.

2. Kitongo PROJECT

A programme of RC and RAB drilling is currently in progress on the Kitongo Prospect. The program follows on from a period of detailed geological mapping, structural studies and rock chip sampling earlier in 1998 which has provided focussed targets for drill testing.

RC Drilling

Approximately 4000m of RC drilling has been completed to date out of a proposed programme of 6500m. The RC drilling is designed to test extensions of the known mineralisation, as well as confirming the nature and continuity of mineralisation within the previously defined "Kitongo Main Zone". In addition a small reconnaissance programme is planned at Kitongo Hill, some 4km NW of the Main Zone where mapping and rock chip sampling have identified a large and potentially high surface anomaly.

Results

Results for the programme to date are very encouraging. Infill drilling in the Main Zone has returned some very high grades that will significantly enhance the overall grade and contained ounces of the current resource. Best results to date include 51 m @ 3.7g/t ( 0-51 m ) including 16m @ 7.78g/t ( 35-51m ) in KTRCO89 and 32m @ 9.07g/t ( 9-41m ) in KTRC097.

Two holes testing a RAB anomaly some 150m west of the Main Zone have identified a new parallel zone of mineralisation. KTRC086 returned 11m % 2.6g/t ( 14-25m ) and KTRC087 returned 18m @ 1.89g/t ( 50-68m ) . Full results to date are detailed in Table 2.

Current RC holes are concentrating on testing the Northern Extension of the Main Zone, where RAB drilling has defined an additional 400m of strike with +1g/t grades near surface. Significant intersection ( greater 20m ) of gossan and sulphide are reported. Assay results are awaited.

RAB Drilling

A programme of greater than or equal to 8000m of RAB drilling is underway. This programme is planned to test for further extensions of the Main Zone mineralisation beyond the current extent of RC drilling. Significant new targets parallel to the Main Zone mineralisation awe now becoming apparant from surface mapping and sampling and these are also to be tested. Results are expected in the coming weeks.

TABLE 2: KITONGO PROJECT

RC DRILLING RESULTS TO 8th OCTOEBER 1998

Hole East North AZ Dec

KTRC073 3850 10555 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC074 3850 10495 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC075 3850 10450 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC076 3850 10395 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC077 3850 10350 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC078 3850 10295 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC079 3900 10495 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC080 3900 10550 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC081 3900 10690 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC082 3900 10625 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC083 3950 10550 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC084 3950 10475 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC085 3950 10375 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC086 4050 10250 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC087 4050 10300 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC088 4000 10545 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC089 4025 10450 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

inc.

KTRC090 3975 10460 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

KTRC091 3975 10400 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

KTRC092 4000 10600 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC093 4050 10650 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC094 4050 10600 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC095 4100 10630 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC096 4100 10525 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC097 4075 10450 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

KTRC098 4075 10425 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

KTRC099 4075 10500 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC100 4125 10450 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

KTRC101 4175 10450 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC102 4175 10500 270 degrees -60 degrees

inc.

inc.

KTRC103 4125 10500 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC104 4150 10630 270 degrees -60 degrees

KTRC105 4150 10600 270 degrees -60 degrees

Hole Hole Inter- Width Grade

Depth ( m ) section ( m ) ( m ) ( g/t Au )

KTRC073 99 8-12 4 2.03

22-25 3 2.26

KTRC074 90 5-8 3 1.32

KTRC075 93 1-2 1 1.08

KTRC076 90 0-8 8 1.77

KTRC077 81 0-7 7 1.27

KTRC078 69 3-7 4 2.79

KTRC079 90 0-4 4 1.80

KTRC080 93 NSR

KTRC081 87 71-72 1 1.38

KTRC082 51 1-3 2 1.64

KTRC083 90 59-60 1 1.63

KTRC084 78 0-1 1 1.01

KTRC085 72 5-6 1 2.62

30-36 6 2.18

45-46 1 9.08

KTRC086 60 14-25 11 2.60

45-46 1 1.13

KTRC087 72 50-68 18 1.89

KTRC088 92 NSR

KTRC089 81 0-51 51 3.70

2-10 8 5.68

35-51 16 7.78

66-75 9 0.88

KTRC090 63 0-38 38 1.46

0-1 1 11.20

KTRC091 60 0-60 60 0.80

3-13 10 1.15

11-13 2 3.02

55-60 5 1.49

KTRC092 93 NSR

KTRC093 99 NSR

KTRC094 93 NSR

KTRC095 90 66-71 5 1.69

KTRC096 102 0-12 12 1.99

79-86 7 1.41

99-100 1 1.25

KTRC097 51 9-41 32 9.07

9-30 21 13.20

KTRC098 39 0-32 32 3.20

4-17 13 5.69

37-40 3 1.0

KTRC099 60 50-51 1 1.14

KTRC100 42 0-35 35 2.74

12-35 23 3.55

KTRC101 60 0-6 6 4.67

21-43 22 3.15

KTRC102 48 12-48 36 1.55

14-34 20 2.17

29-34 5 3.25

KTRC103 58 0-28 28 1.12

KTRC104 84 NSR

KTRC105 84 56-66 10 2.08

Note: NSR = No Significant Result, Azimuth relevant to local grid ( Grid North = 040 magnetic ) . All assaying was performed with a standard sample preparation and fire assay techniques ( including checks and standards ) at a reputable internationally approved laboratory ( SGS ) in Mwanza, Tanzanin. TEL: ( 800 ) 866-4736 Call For a Copy of the Maps Included With This

News Release TEL: +61 8 9240 1622 East Africa Gold Corp. FAX: +61 8 9240 1743 EMAIL:

Virus in both nature and computerdom act on very small simple instructions which target "the soft white underbelly" of the organisms which are their hosts. The y2k manifestations in corporate systems are vast interelationships of code and data. No single virus would contain enough "knowhow" to reverse engineer the system and replace the code/data with fixed information. The closest thing you can get is to "infect" your organization with smart "consultant" virus. % )

I am looking for 500+ oz of 999 pure gold at or close to spot. The gold has to have a recognizable minting mark that bullion dealers and the public would trust. I believe the COMEX is the only game in town that can supply the gold with a certificate and a mint stamp at spot. Grains of gold and scrap 24K gold would probably sell at a discount to spot. Can I buy directly from JM or other refineries at spot? WHY pay the 4 to 5% over spot for coins when I can buy and take delivery of gold at -$2.00 over the current delivery month?

Ah, now using gold to make money...now THERE's a novel idea! But I thought the issue was buying gold at spot value and GETTING the gold in hand...
Of course, if there is money to be made in December because the ( then ) spot price is higher than December's current contract price ( spot value plus lease rate...or should I say TIMES lease rate? : ) ) , the real gold that you bought and held onto at today's spot value could be sold in December for this higher price...the new spot value in December.

But that is not for me. I do other things to eke out my meager monies.

got a dime? : )

Aragorn III ( 10/23/98; 09:39:23MDT - Msg ID:739 )
To Goldfly...we zero in on the crux of your problem
You state, "... the history and meaning of the VALUE of gold is not as
easily discerned. Not by me anyway.
But it seems to me Aragorn, w/ your argument that money must be
SOMETHING, that gold is reduced to the status of a fiat currency--"It's
money because we say it is!"."

I beleive this statement to be the key in my previous response: "To
understand money is to understand what function it serves and how it
might best serve that function." Goldfly, surely you don't take
exception with the fact that money must be SOMETHING. As a test, let us
ASSUME for a moment that money is NOTHING. Allow yourself to think about
this for a time...you will soon agree that even paper or electronic
digital numbers are at least something. So the next question should be,
"Are they the BEST thing, or is there something else better suited to be
money?"
This question has been asked and resolved time and time again
through the history of man. Many different things acted as money from
place to place throughout time. Clam shells. Elephant hair. Salt.
Metals. Paper. Stones. Something was always found to better serve the
function of money, that is, until people used gold, which was
unsurpassable. This conclusion was reached independently by millions of
people worldwide during our history. Divisibility is a vital feature of
money. Metal is better suited than clam shells. Money must be of stable
value, resistant to manipulation or fraud via deception and corruption.
Paper can be counterfeited, or printed at-will by the ruling powers.
Metal cannot be similarly violated so easily. So, your question becomes,
"Why gold over any other metal as money?"

Here's why...There are two ways to get metal: 1 ) from somebody else that
has it, and 2 ) from finding it and extracting it from Earth. Getting if
from somebody else is really what money is all about. To entice them to
relinquish some of their metal/money, you provide some service or product
that they judge as worth X-amount of money. You, having worked for this
money, want to make sure it is the REAL THING so that your effort wasn't
wasted, allowing you to pass it along to someone else for their product
or service ( division of labor isn't very feasible without money, you
see ) . Most grey and silver metals look very similar to the untrained
eye. Nothing else looks and feels like gold.
Further, if ( during the days of our past ) you found that you were incapable or unwilling to provide needed products or services to your fellow man, you could
reasonably scrabble and muck and toil away in the hills and valleys of
nearly any landmass on Earth to produce money. The cost to you would be
much time and sweat. That labor was the necessary origin of nearly all
gold in use today. This labor could justify the exchange of gold for
bread. Similarly, a baker who failed to squeeze any gold from the hills
has chosen instead to make bread in echange for the gold that he will
later use to buy his shoes and wheat and candles, etc.

Gold's physical characteristics filled this role uniquely well. Iron
rusts away, and its naturally occurring state does not allow a simple
man to find it and mine it on his own. Gold was very scarce, yet what
was to be found by these early user's of money was pure gold! Anyone
could do it with very much labor. The money of the people!

You miss something important when you jump to the notion that *because
money must be something, by saying that it is gold makes gold no
different than a fiat currency--"It is because we say it is."* This
would be true if a minority of people arbitrarily said gold was money,
and then forced it upon the rest of the population who would otherwise
see no value in it.
This is not the situation with gold. The common man
worldwide and throughout time has decreed gold to be money. Therefore it
is not fiat! Further, the reason a minority of men desire to implement
fiat currency is to use it to their personal advantage...the ability to
create something with little to no effort with which they can purchase
things of value and the labor of their fellow man. We do see governments
create money and with deficit spending entice free citizens to work for
them, building highways, or missiles. Don't believe that someone of
modern time has selected gold among all things as the money for mankind.
That is as saying someone of modern time has selected oxygen among all
the gases in the air that we breathe to be the sustaining element for
life. Or very nearly so...

This is the plan: Buy 5 Dec 98 COMEX gold futures and take delivery. Also buy 5 Jun. 2000 290 Put contracts on the COMEX to cover my downside risk.

The gold will cost $293.60 oz or $146,800 and the put options are $1120 each or $5600.
Total cost for 500 oz. with a Guaranteed selling price of $290 in June 2000 is $152,400 or $304.80 oz. DOWNSIDE RISK IS 4.8% until June of 2000!

As far as i'm aware, any market maker in precious metals anywhere is goin to have a bid--ask buy--sell spread.. They have to make a small profit to remain as dealers.. The trick is to find the dealer or company that has the smallest spread.. For instance find a company and ask them what you will pay for an ounce and ask them what they will immediately buy it back for.. Only way to beat the system is to go out and dig it up....I've done that too years ago.. I would buy in 10 oz bars in quantity...easier to resell..I'll bet KitCo has hallmarked certified bars....Ask them....If I saw one I'd probably buy it...Weigh one..AU is heavy.....20 Pennyweights to an ounce...stick a magnet to it...gold is not magnetic..FWIW....An old AU fool

These results on EAG looks exceptional. Where did you get that press release. It is dated Oct 9 98....and has not been published at Canada-Stockwath. Something is wrong.

Thanks for the post I look forward to measuring my salary in maples per month....

I have read this site daily for over a year. The ideas and thoughts have been invaluable. As we approach the millennium, I find kitco is containing an exponential rise in Y2K discussion. How can the Y2K analysis be so "off-base" and the gold discussions be accurate? Starting to get the impression that "gold bug" and Y2K alarmist are synonymous. While I consider myself a gold-bug, I am a complete Y2K non-alarmist ( Y2KNA ) . I would enjoy knowing how many other Y2KNA people are here. Perhaps since those directly concerned about Y2K post articles, while those that are not concerned say little. A lurkers perception that there is a high correlation between gold bugs and Y2K concern may be innacurrate.
My paradigm. Electronic and automotive engineer ( 20 years ) in automotive ECUs ( Electronic Control Units ) including the development of many custom embedded controllers. Get a real chuckle from the "cars stopping when the lights go out" crowd. On 1/5/2000 a lot of people will be asking what the fuss was about. Sure there will be some problems particularly in industries which rely heavily on date computations ( banking, airline reservations, government records ) but life will go on without much interruption. Has the company I work for ( Fortune 5 ) done a complete
Y2K assessment? Yes. What percentages of machines are fully Y2K
compliant? Almost none. What number of these non-compliant machines will
produce operational disruptions? Only a few. Will those be fixed in time? Yes. What do we do if we miss one? We will deliberately enter a pre-2000 fictitious date into the system and reinitialize. Then fix, ASAP.

As I see the fingers tightening around the triggers, enough already ...

Oh, about golf...

1 ) . There is too much gold above ground to expect a significant rise in the price of this commodity.
2 ) . There is too little gold on the earth to put an end to all fiat currencies.
3 ) . The quantum states of "gold the commodity" ( $265/ oz ) is incompatible
with "gold the currency" ( $30,000/ oz ) .
4 ) . The simultaneous and peaceful coexistence of fiat currency systems and hard asset based currency systems is no longer possible in our smaller, free-trade world.

Battle until the death of one? Is this not where we are?

We will watch this new millennium together, yes? ( With the lights on! )

Gold...ASB ; Y2KNA

You stated:
"...I believe the COMEX is the only game in town that
can supply the gold with a certificate and a mint stamp at spot."

That is one this I cherish about life and this world of ours...you are indeed free to believe whatever you WANT to believe. : )

You stated:
"Grains of gold and scrap 24K gold would probably sell at a discount to spot."

I wish that were true! But then that would be redefining the meaning of spot price of gold, would it not? The basic pure element is worth spot price to take ownership today of raw gold. Putting that same gold into a preferred form, whether it be coins, bars, or powder, comes with a cost--the premium over spot price. Depending on the work involved, the premium varies.

You asked:
"Can I buy directly from JM or other refineries at spot? WHY pay the 4 to
5% over spot for coins when I can buy and take delivery of gold at
-$2.00 over the current delivery month?"

I believe I just now answered the first question. ( No. A small premium will be involved. ) Premium is smaller for bars than coins--less work involved by refineries and mints. You are to be envied for the ability and foresight to want 100 to 500 ounces of gold! The last time I pursued such information, recognizable gold bars of nearly any big size of my choosing could be had for a premium of only $4 over spot value/ounce.

In answer to your last question...I offer this thought. A commonly repeated adage is that "Possession is nine-tenths of the law." What do you suppose the final one-tenth is? Reliable delivery, perhaps?

got reliability?
Can you predict the future? COMEX does not expect to settle futures contracts with their eligible stocks. There is not enough, nor need there be because that is not how they operate.

Psilver Psyched-- what y2k posts : )

I am a real time process control engineer who has worked on mines, refineries, biotech plants, breweries, and chemical plants. These systems do rely on dates for material geneology, and batch tracking. Life will be bearable but will not go on as usual. There will be disruption in production...ahh but we have all that excess capacity...
just a good idea to be prepared. Stock up on beer.

Your words, "...I look forward to measuring my salary in maples per
month...."
Such is my measurement, also.
Sadly I note the direction you look! The past two years were for rejoicing, as one's salary was constant while the gold income showed regular pay-raises with the falling price. Looking forward we shall see that constant money salary will be revealed as a pay cut in gold income as the price will rise.

To be evaluated individually..."What outcome makes one happier?"

To be paid directly in an expected quantity of gold, this day forward, would be a fine thing!

LongJ
Fortunately the British Sovereign lends itself to long term measurements of salaries. Note the gold/salt relationship in our language.

In 1908 a clerk at a London stock brokers earned 1 per week. ie 0.2354 oz, one sovereign almost 1 Maple per month.

I have been attacked by the evil tabula rasa bug, all my archives have dispersed to the ther in a fit of Brownian motion...
a friend just emailed me these haiku, I don't think they've been posted before..


COMPUTER PRODUCED ERROR MESSAGES IN HAIKU...

A file that big?
It might be very useful.
But now it is gone.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
The Web site you seek
cannot be located but
endless others exist
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Chaos reigns within.
Reflect, repent, and reboot.
Order shall return.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
ABORTED effort:
Close all that you have.
You ask way too much.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
First snow, then silence.
This thousand dollar screen dies
so beautifully.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
With searching comes loss
and the presence of absence:
"My Novel" not found.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
The Tao that is seen
Is not the true Tao, until
You bring fresh toner.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Windows NT crashed.
I am the Blue Screen of Death.
No one hears your screams.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Stay the patient course
Of little worth is your ire
The network is down
- - - - - - - - - - - -
A crash reduces
your expensive computer
to a simple stone.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Yesterday it worked
Today it is not working
Windows is like that
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Three things are certain:
Death, taxes, and lost data.
Guess which has occurred.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
You step in the stream,
but the water has moved on.
This page is not here.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Out of memory.
We wish to hold the whole sky,
But we never will.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Having been erased,
The document you're seeking
Must now be retyped.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Rather than a beep
Or a rude error message,
These words: "File not found."
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Serious error.
All shortcuts have disappeared.
Screen. Mind. Both are blank.

I could never dismiss sound advice!
Goin' to the store now.

have I got a NT screen saver for you --- "the blue screen of death"
just got it. its hillarious, amazed your friends, stunn your co workers, laugh out loud at your screen.. want it?

date processing programs can be simply corrected with
"wet ware" [humans] standing by to nudge computer systems into the
next century. As for cars quitting, I see the only thing maybe affected would be the dashboard clock. Big deal. The chips running the engine and whatever don't need to know the date to function.
CC & Cosmos: East Africa Gold has over 74 million shares outstanding which is probably the reason it is so cheap on such good news.

Unless Mutual Fund managers are under explicit orders not to sell during this critical point for the markets, on Monday they will sell to register some degree of profits from the recent rally, spurred to sell by the revelation of weakness from today's trading results. Stocks will have a healthy decline, while the 30-yr bond will see it's effective interest rate fall as its price is bid up...flight to safety sorta thing. Har!

Not trading advice, just the writing on the wall...

Gold will continue to be the only thing "good as gold", yet its cost for purchase won't do anything bold until either Jan 1999, or until an institution stops playing nicely with others...whichever comes first.

Here's a couple of links to issuance by Japanese government agencies of assurances concerning the protection and honoring of the subordinated debt and derivatives portfolio of LTCB post-nationalization. It would seem those assurances would go without saying. I guess the Japanese government, like it or not, is now a player.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/41.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981023/v.html


Funny how 10 or 15 guys with an average IQ of around 170 at Long Term Capital could get themselves into the position of losing all their money, a good bit of that of their creditors and potentially touch off a global firestorm of paper in the process. Let's hope the guys that Japan
puts in charge of LTCB's strategies and positions along with portfolios acquired from other failed institutions ain't that smart.

Aragon III you forgot to mention one of the most important reasons gold has value. Gold is an excellent tool of romance. Put that gold necklace, ring, or coin in a woman's hand and watch the result: )

Mozel Tov on your company's Y2K compliance. I hope to see the press release soon. I hope your fortune 5 company can survive with our just in time widgets from all of your suppliers, have your own power generation facilites, have your own transportation network, have food for all of your employees and heat and light for their homes and families. Otherwise I'd say you'll have a slight dip in productivity % )

There are four camps. You got your Y2K awares that say you can't eat gold. You got your Y2K awares that understand the tangible, fungible storage of wealth that gold provides regardless of the outcome of Y2K. You got your Y2KNA's that say you can't eat gold. You got your Y2KNA's that understand the tangible, fungible storage of wealth that gold provides when "nothing" happens.

Psliver, you question, how can people be so right on PM commentary
yet their assessments be so off base when it comes to Y2K.
Well maybe, just maybe, they are not off base.
The fact is you do not know for a fact that it won't impact you.
There is no case study you can point to that will give you a difinitive answer, we are in un-charted waters on this one.
A prudent person will plan for the worst and hope for the best.
As to your quick fix for the business or company you work for great, but what about the vendors
who you buy things from. Will they too have a quick fix?
There have been many who discribe a worst case scenerio along witth those who feel its no big deal.
I suspect it will be some where in the middle.

And one can not but wonder if there are some who say, "what comes goes around, comes around". Do you hear the faint rumblings of a wheel slooowly turning? {:- ) )

For example: tilling in the currency field todayfelt compelled to add the CNY to my mixrather looks like gold is NOT priced in dollars for the Chinese [the correlation is Euro, not USD]. Yes indeed, one suspects we are going to be treated to MANY stories about "the Euro won't make it", none of which, needless to say, will be backed by much more than political panic.

Oh, goody - someone who has hands-on experience with chip systems in cars......

Tell me, please, don't electronic ignition systems interface with a clock chip, or with the difference in time between two clock chips? My ( very limited ) impression ( or information ) up until now was that when the clock chip malfunctioned, also would the ignition system.

Thanks in advance for your response.

Psilver Psyched, there are significant differences between ECU's and IS type of processing. When IS people talk about "embedded systems" they are usually wrong. The same applies when the roles are reversed. Your comment "What do we do if we miss one? We will deliberately enter a pre-2000 fictitious date into the system and reinitialize. Then fix, ASAP." is totally out of reality when it comes to big IS shop. If you "reinitialized" production system ( lets say big IBM shop ) with fictive pre-Y2K date, most of applications would simply stopped working, database systems would be confused, recovery would not work, tape archive systems would get confused, etc., etc. )

That's the problem with most of this Y2K discussion, we try to generalize based on limited experience and narrow point of view. However, you can not extrapolate some solutions ( or problems ) between environment, applications, or type of businesses.

1. I am practicing doublespeak?
2. This is a Zen post?
3. The wheel rolled right over me brain?

to all
Bill Clinton .. won the Miss America comtest and
and got an Emmy at the "peace in the middle east"
show. He was also named best actor.
Netanyahoo was the runner up princess and smelt the
BEST of all the contestants. Arafat was the cinderella
kid with no prizes at all. Points were deducted for
his raggedy head scarf.

Ive never seen such a pile of crapola in my life ..
THATS SHOWBIZ..

The media giveth .. and the media taketh away..
The recovery of wjc has begun.

To think of my misuse of resources these many days now...Shameful! A timely reminder for the weekend, indeed! : )

??? http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2807

longj
Thanks for offer, perhaps you could upload it to the server, if its not too big.


SDRer
Big wheel keep on turnin'. Rollin', Rollin', Rollin' down the river....

sam
Pig is in hiding till xmas. It sure has cute fat piggy wiggy cheeks.

All
Why do I only see a half-screen sized message box for these 'ere pearls what I have to cast?..

Aragorn 111me
Marvelous goldbug post. Brabo.

I like your take on the one institution stops playing nicely.....

who'll be the bad cowboy to cut and run with the GOLD?

Then the fireworks begin.

"good as gold"

Please reread your: Date: Fri Oct 23 1998 15:56 Aragorn III ( Lurker...Let me try to help if I may. ) ID#212323: post.
1. I want to believe the truth! I know of no other source of 999 pure gold bullion that has a recognizable mint stamp for the prices that COMEX sells at. If you know of any other source for a better price please share this with me.
2. What I was saying is I could not sell Grains of gold and scrap 24K gold for spot. Perhaps you have a source that pays over spot for junk gold?
3. The last time I checked the current Dec 98 gold futures are about $2.00 over spot.

Money is a powerful aphrodisiac. But flowers work almost as well.

Money is the sincerest of all flattery.
Women love to be flattered.
So do men.

http://www.toto.com/toto/lazarus.quotes

10/27 1000/1500 Consumer Conf October 123.1 126.0

My confidence as a consumer fell off a cliff in April when I sold most of my stocks, paid off my debts, and basically stopped buying anything. Except gold, of course. Just call me the canary consumer.
-EJ

The sybmol for the cash reserves of institutions ( mutual funds and their ilk ) at http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form is BIRXX

Please comment on what the current level of 5.25% ( yesterday's, data is updated daily at 18:00 EDT/EST ) means. If you look at the daily or weekly chart, it would suggest that this level is the lowest since the beginning of the year.

Thank you.

P.S.: I don't know about you, but I for one have heard just about enough of Y2K.

Why go to the bother of futures and puts....if you have the cash just go buy the gold!...with a 500 oz order you can "talk" to any dealer and their has to be one that will cut you a deal ( right now using your figures, your cost is about 3% over spot...those bid -ask prices are for small quanities...with a $150,000 order someone will do the deal for less than $4,500...that business is just like any other business...the dealer is doing this to make a living...can't deny a man's living...he got a wife and kids too!
If this is an investment... ( it sounds like a very seriuos investment! ) than just buy it...give Bart a chance to deal!..Stay away from the futures market, lest those boys can't figure a way to get your gold!!!

Just a gentle thought..Chicken man..

The headlines could have very well been, "Major Japanese bank declares itself bankrupt, Govt moves in to borrow ( print ) currency to bail out the bank, pay off creditors."

http://209.67.114.212/forum/a3630e7865054.htm

Lurker 777
Is not difficult to buy 400oz London good delivery bars, Phone Johnson Matthey, Englehard, or any bullion ( bouillon, if you're hungry ) dealer. It's a wrist-breaker.

Off to brunch.

Algore has made it official, bill clinton has singlehandedly saved the world. Despite the fall in consumer confidence, we should all sell our gold at any price available because our determined, courageous, workaholic President has created world peace!

We can all change our investment outlook and embrace fiat currency, knowing that bill clinton has erased the threat of Middle East instability and saved the world.

Off to the bathroom.

It seems that since we are no longer on the gold standard, silver standard, or even tobacco standard, it seems that "The Powers that Be" don't really care about getting back loans and foreclosing on property. The tax system, based on inflate and steal, has replaced the foreclosures of the past to a large degree.

How can anyone say with any certainty whether we will see deflation or currency destruction. Even Prechter seems to be reneging on his definition of deflation in light of devaluations.

Currencies are notes, like bonds without an implicit interest rate.

Gold is money.

Thats buying 500 oz at 4.4% over spot WITH a guaranteed $290 oz. buy back anytime before JUNE of 2000.

I can understand in principle how imbedded chips can cause a problem. I can't understand how they can cause a problem with automobiles ( or any other systems that can have power removed, and then be restarted without reprogramming ) . The battery goes dead in your car. You replace it. How does the car know the date then? This happened to me recently. I didn't have to reset anything to get it to run.

Lurker...Chicken man had some words that may serve in place of mine? Will give more if you insist, but my well runs dry over time...creativity wanes. This must be fun, after all!

Kiwi! Thanks for keeping it fun, mate! Lovin' that accent, I am!
You asked:
"who'll be the bad cowboy to cut and run with the GOLD?"

That would be me...cutting and running as we speak. But unfortunately it requires many trips ( armed only with small grasping hands ) that it dilutes the impact to the world market. Glad you liked the post!

And the winner is: BC and terrorism! A devil's bargain if ever there was one! War before the end of '99! Bring on the Pope!

I attempted to initiate a small 200 sh short sale in a moderately active stock on the Internet - When the stock hit my entry pt I pushed the button and waited for my confirmation after about ten min I called the broker and asked for a confirmation - about 40 min latter they confirmed confirmation more than a point lower I hastily covered at a small loss - There claim is that there was no uptick for them to short on for forty min which I find hard to believe? It might also may indicate that buyers are in short supply.

Heard that negotiations with the IMF and Russia regarding debt coming due.- I wonder if the breakdown was a result of Russias plan to issue gold backed coins and gold securities seems. I have read some where that in order to get IMF aid you have to agree not to due this - any one know if this condition is true? - cjk -

aareadme.txt and osrbsod.scr are in the ftp://ftp.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/
directory with directions

I dunno - I'm hoping someone who does know, would tell ME, if this isn't going to be a problem.

Rolled 1/2 of my position over into Dec puts--122's and124's...will add Mon or Tue for the reason you gave...had to place some positions in case
Japan does something over the weekend...thinking there is a lot of potential selling @127 1/8...see chart...either way intend to add positions next week...Chicken man's target 106... yes 106...IMHO all ( !!!! ) equities will get pushed of the edge when the hedges start to unwind...some of the hedge funds require 60 days notice to pull your money out...that could make the funds start the unwinding...booiiiinng..parts all over the place!!!...

anybody:is not the limit on gold at $25 ( that's down as well as up? )

Just a country boy's thoughts...Chicken man..

Have you heard anything from CAU management on the whether or
not they think I-137 will sink in November

what is your reasoning that bonds will fall, or did i misunderstand your post? every way i look at it interest rates sshould fall over the next six months. would like to see your thinking. thanks.

When the Fed turns T-Bonds into cash ( currency ) the government gets
a bonus in that it no longer has to pay interest on the T-Bond.

So CASH in circulation is actually helpful to a government.

With recession coming and the 2000 problem coming at the same time
the more currency that is printed up the more T-Bonds that are
withdrawn from circulation. So if the Fed prints up 500 billion that
saves the government 500 x 5% = $25 billlion in interest. Not a
small sum, especially in a recession!!!!

I don't know what to do with this information except to notice that
there might be an incentive for this to happen. Cash does
slow down the velocity of money, however, which will hurt the economy
but might be necessary anyway.

Also with all that cash around people might then start to get the
idea about its true worth and be a little more willing to exchange
some of it for gold.

Hope this gold correction ends soon. Looks like DROOY heading for
$2.50 where it will find support. Wish I had sold all of it at $3.75
and exchanged it for RANGY. I did with some.

I think that they might merge soon. Not sure, just a thought because
it would be a super company at that point. Also, RANGY and DROOY seem
to be getting closer in price over the past few days. I smell something
happening soon, if it is going to at all. November is my guess.

I wonder if I am right about this hunch........?


THanks, GD

here's a snippet
*******************
Asian Deflation and Gold - Kutyn
A little over 300 billion U.S. dollars buys
every once of gold in every central bank in
the world.
When Japan crashes, none of this will be for
sale.
*******************
pretty sad thought.

Though I doubt that their guess would be any better Gov. Racicot's, himself! Only time will tell. And you know, people have unwittingly developed such a socialist mentality somewhere since the time of this nation's founding, that I really don't know what to expect from the voters. Clearly they don't see the issue on the ballot for what it is. The only room for optimism is that this is Montana we're talking about, not any state at random. But then, even Montana can be bought and sold.

My mind frame may not be advisable for you to adopt, but personally, I don't see this ( I-137 ) as a CAU event so much as I see it as a McDonald event. CAU will be better off with it or without it, DEFINATELY. This is one of those rare times that I agree with the standard market-media spew that "the markets don't like uncertainty." The decision, either way, will be good news for Canyon. Plus, think of the settlement they will get from the State for having changed the rules on them mid-stream. A no-no in the corporate and political world.

Some fear another Great Depression,
but government would have to make a lot of mistakes for that to happen
Date: 10/23/98
Author: Charles Oliver

It all seems frighteningly familiar: Depression spreads from nation to
nation, a wave of failures hits foreign banks, and political unrest rocks
many nations.

Are we poised on the verge of another depression? Some gloomy pundits
suggest we may be, but most economists reject such dire predictions. Still,
the worry does seem to be out there.

To judge the chance of another great crash, we must first understand the
causes of the Great Depression.

The Depression wasn't caused by market forces, many economists say.

''The Great Depression was actually the result of a series of policy
blunders,'' said economic historian Robert Higgs, a senior fellow at the
Independent Institute, an Oakland, Calif., think tank.

How bad was the Depression?

From '29 to '33, the output of U.S. factories, mines and utilities fell by
more than half. Real disposable incomes dropped by more than a fourth. The
Dow Jones industrial average crashed to one-tenth of its pre-Depression
high. And unemployment was stuck in double digits for 10 years.

But the story may actually start with World War I, which wrecked the
economies of Europe. After the war, Europe was desperate for a revival.

The old ideas about sound money were out of fashion throughout the
industrial world.

''Instead, during the '20s, the United States, in conjunction with the
British and other leading industrial and financial powers, tried to keep the
world prosperous by deliberately inflating the money supply,'' wrote Paul
Johnson in ''A History of the American People.''

These policies didn't seem to help much in Europe. British unemployment was
mostly stuck above 10% in the '20s. But in the U.S., it seemed to work.

The U.S. money supply grew more than 60% between '21 and '29.

This flood of money kept interest rates low, spurred excessive borrowing and
stoked a huge boom - the Roaring '20s.

Many economists think that boom would have come to an end anyway. But the
Fed hastened its demise.

''By early '29, the Fed was concerned about rising consumer prices and
speculation in the stock market, and it started raising interest rates,''
said Richard Ebeling, an economist at Hillsdale College, in Hillsdale, Mich.

This started choking business activity, and profits fell. By September '29,
the stock market had started to stumble. In October, it crashed.

By then, a tidal wave was sweeping the economy.

Yet in '30, Washington passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff that greatly raised
tariffs on almost all imported goods.

''This bill gave the signal for protectionism to proliferate all over the
world,'' wrote economist Murray Rothbard in ''America's Great Depression.''

The trade wars sparked by Smoot-Hawley destroyed markets for U.S. exports.

Two years later, Washington passed what was then the biggest peacetime tax
increase in history.

''Economists disagree about the root causes of economic downturns and about
how the government should deal with them, but I don't know of any economic
theory that says it's a good idea to raise taxes in a recession or
depression,'' Higgs said.

Firms kept sinking and people panicked, causing runs on banks.

As thousands of banks failed, the money supply dried up, falling by a third
between '29 and '33.

Monetarists such as Milton Friedman say the Fed should have tried harder to
protect the banking system and keep the money supply -and therefore demand -
from falling.

''But the monetarists would agree that a collapse of the money supply
shouldn't have disastrous long-term effects if wages and prices are allowed
to fall,'' Higgs said.

Yet wages and prices didn't fall, at least not as much as economists would
have expected.

''That's largely due to the high-wage policies started by Herbert Hoover and
continued and expanded by Franklin Roosevelt,'' said Richard Vedder, an
economic historian at Ohio University.

Hoover tried to persuade businesses not to cut wages. Roosevelt pushed into
law the National Industrial Relations Act, the National Recovery Act, the
Wagner Act and other measures aimed at propping wages.

''This was all based on the idea that high wages would translate into
purchasing power, and we could spend our way out of the Depression,'' Vedder
said.

Instead, these policies kept wage rates above what employers could pay.

''And New Deal social welfare programs such as Social Security, which was
paid for through payroll taxes, added to labor costs,'' Vedder said.

In '39, 10 years after the crash, unemployment still stood above 15%,
despite huge, new federal jobs programs.

Roosevelt also pushed through new restrictions on the stock market and new
taxes, including a tax on corporate dividends. The top income tax rate
climbed to 91%.

''Combined with the administration's harsh anti-business, anti-investor
rhetoric, these rules and taxes made an unstable atmosphere even more
uncertain,'' Higgs said. ''People wouldn't invest because they feared that
even if they did make any money, it would just be taxed away. Private
investment plummeted.''

Polls of business leaders at the time showed they thought the New Deal was
adding to the nation's woes, not solving them.

Investment plunged 84% from '29 to '33, Higgs says, and it didn't reach its
pre-crash level again until after the war.

By then, Roosevelt and the most anti-business New Dealers were gone from
Washington. And the nation started on a path of great prosperity, Higgs
notes.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
( C ) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc.

http://www.investors.com

You are forgetting one important thing...the T-Bonds that originate from the source! The FED ends up buying the first issuance of these bonds for a small amount of FRNs. They hold them until maturity, whereupon the Treasury pays the full face value, and not before.

I'm sure a debate will ensue, and those knowledgeable will carry on this position on my behalf--that being the quest for truth. I've promised a beer to a friend and must make good on my promise.

Away...

Chicken man's plan : sold Dec gold puts @ 285... will add more on first strong day...ride down to gap at $262-265 or continue ride to gap at $212....don't laugh quite yet...we don't know how big this hurricane is
( the bigger the "eye" the stronger the storm ) ..true that would not be a rational price...but IMHO this has nothing to do with rational..then it would not be a crisis!!!!
Then and only then would I put my "risk" capital on the line...not by buying on the futures market but by buying calls.... I sleep sounder if I know exactly what I have "on the line"....think about this...I owned some Yen calls...when I went to bed I was "at the money"...when I woke up I was 37K richer ( and I might add someone was 37K poorer!!! ) ...my risk was limited to the price of the call...this is what is getting the hedge funds in "trouble" ...they are writing these calls...they made tons of $$
but now are getting creamed...my advice ( wrong word...let's try "thinking"...we have to be careful ) for the novices reading this is:
stay away from the futures pit ( unless you have very DEEP pockets..clean down to your ankles! ) ....I'm speaking from experience!!!!..."traded for years trying to outsmart the floor traders"...Pssst...they got my $$$...All of it!!!!

I'm sure others here could give the "rookies" here a tip or two....I would love to see everbody make $$...I'm just saying be CAREFUL!!

Just a careful thought...Chicken man...

morbius, Silverbaron: Morbius -- I think you are correct that many of the embedded chips that everyone is worried about will not have any Y2K problems at all. The only ones to worry about, IMHO , are the ones that have to be programmed -- they probably have batteries as well, or need to be reset whenever your disconnect the battery ( car? ) . So far, the only thing in any of our cars that needs to be reprogrammed if the battery is disconnected is the clock -- and I doubt that would go haywire on y2k anyway.

Now the embedded timer chip in my home ac thermostat is probably a different story -- my heating and cooling will probably get screwed up. But -- all that will happen is that the cooling and heating cycles will be out of sync. Happens all the time anyway.

The only way to address this y2k embedded chip business is to inventory all the embedded chips in your company -- as the SeaTac airport did. Alarm systems, elevator holiday timers -- anything that is not on a 24 hour clock -- where the day of the week matters, or holidays matter.

I find all the talk frustrating, as it should be fairly straightforward for an engineer type to identify all the chips, their ID/serial#, and get the specs from the Vendor. Given all the y2k hype, you would think that a chip vendor out there could be cajoled into making a programmable series of generic chips. Retooling charges might be relatively high, but just think how much money could be saved by just replacing single chips rather than spending 100x more to replace the whole unit.

Must be tempting for the vendors to discourage upgrading of old systems by spending $100 to replace a single chip when the customer can spend thousands or hundreds of thousands for an upgraded instrument/device. Nothing a clever engineer can't circumvent and save his/her company millions in 'retooling' costs.

Now if you need to upgrade x anyway, that is a different story.

American schooling in risk management may ease Japanese economic woes
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/102398/world23_9387.html

In Fujita's native city of Tokyo, financial powerhouses are looking to the United States for the rocket scientists of investment -- those who know how to manage exposure in international currency markets and invest in derivatives, complex financial instruments with values derived from an underlying security, commodity or asset.

( I hope they get some Nobel laureates to speak... )

EXPERTS WARN OF THREAT FROM 100GB BUG

Firebringer News Service ( FBNS ) - Experts warned today of a new and
deadly threat to our beleaguered civilization: the 100GB Bug.

As most people know, McDonald's restaurant signs show the number of
hamburgers the giant chain has sold. That number now stands at 99
billion burgers, or 99 Gigaburgers ( GB ) . Within months or even weeks,
that number will roll over to 100GB. McDonald's signs, however, were
designed years ago, when the prospect of selling one hundred billion
hamburgers seemed unthinkably remote. So the signs have only two
decimal places.

This means that, after the sale of the 100 billionth burger,
McDonald's signs will read "00 Billion Burgers Sold." This, experts
predict, will convince the public that, in over thirty years, no
McDonald's hamburgers have ever in fact been sold, causing a complete
collapse of consumer confidence in McDonald's products.

The ensuing catastrophic drop in sales is seen as almost certain to
force the already-troubled company into bankruptcy. This, in turn,
will push the teetering American economy over the brink, which,
finally, will complete the total devastation of the global economy,
ending civilization as we know it, and forcing us all to live on
beetles.

"The people who know -- the sign-makers -- are really scared of
100GB," one expert said. "I don't know about you, but I'm digging up
a copy of THE FIELD GUIDE TO NORTH AMERICAN INSECTS and heading for
the hills."

what are all the banks gonna do when the iterest rates go to 100% ( or negative as some woulds suggest. )

morbius, if car control unit had some dependance on dates, it would have to have a battery incorporated to keep the real time clock going. Just like your computer, you turn the power off ( equivalent to taking car battery out ) and the real time clock is still running. I doubt that many cars depend on this kind of control unit. I think most of them just keep track of miles for maintenance purposes.

However, what do I know, this is IS guy talking. ;- ) I doubt that you will have too many cars which would fail due to Y2K, though, they may fail if by some chance some non-compliant gas station rejects your credit card and you don't have any cash to buy the gass ;- )

Valero Energy is dependent on cheap oil and good times for earnings and high Stock Price.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=VLO&d=1ys

Check out the max chart, it goes back a few years - the 80s Gold high, 87 crash, and the gulf war.

HighRise

All: I find it amusing that the aggressive small firms in this country -- the ones with the most innovative technology -- are probably already y2k compliant. And people who work for these firms probably have no trouble telling others to do the same.
But -- guess which entities are the least likely to tell others about the Y2K problem? -- and who are afraid to tell the public.

The very same entities that are least prepared.

OUR GOVERNMENTS -- State and Federal.

Could it be that the reluctance of Governments to inform the public of the Y2K problem has a Darwinian aspect to it? Do they really think that national disaster teams are the best way to go?

Isn't that the same as accepting the incompetence of big government?

My hat is off to Social Security, and to the SeaTac airport. Now -- if we could get everyone else off their rear ends. And, apparently Europe is at least 6 months behind us in the US, Canada and Australia.

Y2K will only be a problem if we let it be a problem.

Just a thought -- just how does the EMU expect to compete with the US ( and more enlightened other countries ) if they do not address the Y2K problem?

We are not just talking about a leveling event where all are at risk. There is a major Darwinian component to what is happening with the information revolution. Those who are not Y2K compliant will be left behind -- be they government or financial or corporate.
How will the government collect taxes to pay for all of the FEMA type service they want to give us, instead of what they are really supposed to do? Perhaps the IRS will have to contract out to some y2k compliant firm. Perhaps Y2K is just the opposite of what we think -- rather than Big Brother watching us -- perhaps big brother is going the way of the Dodo.

On CBC's business show, John Emory from Royal Bank Mutual Funds ( 26 Billion under admin stated that "Every portfolio should have gold exposure,.. that the FED will fight deflation by inflating causing inflation" He said gold has not gone up in this crisis because the powers to be do not want it to go up. "It would send the wrong message at this time" This guy works for the most conservative bank in Canada, these comments were very bullish for gold IMHO.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/981023/tvx_gold_1.html

Just updated with today's prices at: http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold
My objective is to take possession of the physical Gold and cover myself on the downside risk. I like the June 2000 put options ( $11.10 oz. ) for protection but need a source of inexpensive gold. The best prices I have found are from RJ at 4.7% ( $14 ) over spot for coins. I thought I might try buying 100 oz bars from COMEX for around $2.00 oz over spot ( $294.20 ) . I think they are guaranteed by a mint mark and a certificate for purity and weight. I need to know how much is s&h and insurance for delivery. Also, when I want to sell the 100 oz bars I need a market. Does anyone know how much dealers are willing to pay for COMEX 100 oz bars? As I previously discussed, I know of no other safer way to invest in REAL gold today for $305.30 oz plus s&h and limit the downside risk to 5%. Does anyone know a better way?

I caught the show too. Richard Embry made some very bullish comments on GOLD.

Basically, he EMPAHISIZED, Gold have been borrowed and sold to be invested into higher yielding securities such as Bonds. He says this gold has to be bought back.

He says the $325 estimate from anaylsts who are optimistic is rather conservative.

HE SAID POG COULD REACH $400 REAL QUICK.

let me repeat...... REAL QUICK.

The real question is when does short covering take place.

I caught the show too. Richard Embry made some very bullish comments on GOLD.

Basically, he EMPAHISIZED, Gold have been borrowed and sold to be invested into higher yielding securities such as Bonds. He says this gold has to be bought back.

He says the $325 estimate from anaylsts who are optimistic is rather conservative.

HE SAID POG COULD REACH $400 REAL QUICK.

let me repeat...... REAL QUICK.

The real question is when does short covering take place.

Sorry for the delayed reponse. The dinner thingy.
There are no absolute time ( calendar functions ) in the ECUs or ignition modules. There are clocks yes in the sense of pacing time for the micros and bus structures but this is not absolute time. In some systems and in some companies, there is an absolute reference to odometer for calibration adjustments based upon mileage but none to my knowledge based upon the calendar. As someone else pointed out, when your battery goes dead these modules could not keep time anyway. They have some memory retention ( EPROMs ) {electrically programmable read only memories} without power to save error or diagnostic info but all clocking functions cease with loss of battery. In summary, not to worry.

While I appreciate many of the comments which have been made the loss of power thing it is a good talking point. Our factories lose power and/or have cross-over disruptions until the generators fire up ( yes, our factility can generate it's own power; we get reduced electricity rates for allowing the power company to load shed us in the event of a needed local brown-out ) many of our embedded process and IS functions can go down. Invariably, there are some lithium back-up batteries that have gone bad since the last time disruption occurred. These units loose calendar time. A pain but we fix em. Not the end of the world. Y2K effects are not completely uncharted waters in terms of knowing how to recover from an engineering perspective.
Sorry for the long response. Now back to the kitco program already in progress...

Why can't these analysts come right out and say it.

THE POG IS BEING FIXED LOW!!! it's as simple as that.

Why do we always have to read between the lines. Are us viewers that stupid?

When gold finally does go up we will all know that the 'powers that be'
have lost control of the system. Sounds catastrophic or like a
conspiracy theory but who could argue that gold has not been
heavily manipulated these last few years, more intensly the last
two years and maybe frantically manipulated the last few months.

Either,

1. We will see a crash in the US Stock market, much worse that the one 1929.

OR

2. A bear market in the US Stock market ( in particular the DOW stocks ) that will last more than 20 years.

The probability of this happening is SO VERY HIGH.
AGAIN THE REAL QUESTION IS WHEN DOES IT BEGIN?????

Tks for da tidbit. I recently increased my exposure of Precious Mutuals at da Royal. Just going over their Prospectus. Appears like good coverage with senior companies. I've bought them at several major Cdn
Banks in this area & at these small branches, it causes quite a stir to dare purchase anything involving precious. As usual-got the lecture how risky they r. Think I had da lady convinced to buy some. Time for more
Chivas.

Lurker777
Every JM bar is numbered, guaranteed, and stamped with purity. The guarantee includes a guarantee to repurchase without assaying costs. You should ONLY buy 999 or 9999 assayed bars. 99999 is too refined, therefore too expensive and is only 99999 purity because of some scientific applications.
By definition, the price that JM buys its bars is spot price. Spot on Comex or the London fix is rather academic, the real spot is what a bullion ( or bouillon ) minter will pay for its own bars, or those of other Good Delivery London approved minters.
This should be 2-3% below your purchase price, and 4-10% below bullion coin purchase price that have no special premium.

Interview with Nick Goodwin on SAf golds.

http://www.moneyweb.co.za/

Maybe they masters of the universe are in control after all.

Consider this.

What happens IF the CB's who loaned out their gold to "sucker" hedge funds bought the gold back as the hedge funds sell on the open market.

Now we all know the hedge funds have to buy the gold back. If the gold is in the CB's hands and they don't sell to hedge funds.........

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE POG?

POG skyrockets, I MEAN REALLY goes up OR the hedge funds go broke. Either way the CB'S are in a win-win situation.

i say, THE ONLY WAY TO PLAY THEIR GAME IS TO BUY GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS!!!!!!!

...just thought it was worth posting again.


Date: Fri Oct 23 1998 10:43
gwyz ( Y2k nonsense... ) ID#432130:
Copyright  1998 gwyz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...Too many posts today trashing the Y2k situation. Here is what it boils down to.
There are 4 possibilities:

1 ) Nothing happens and we all celebrate about the human race having solved the
most complicated project in human history. The Y2k proponents look like a bunch of
silly doomsdayers and they feel real stupid about themselves. ( If you believe this one
you are in denial and you and your family will suffer for it ) .

2 ) It turns out to be just a "bump in the road". Your ATM card doesnt work. You
get a utility bill for 30 billion dollars. You and the person at the billing department have
a good laugh and he/she corrects the error. ( If you believe this one there is some
hope for you. You need to do some more research on your own being careful with
regard to your sources of information ) .

3 ) It turns out to be quite a mess. Fortunately the lights are still on, but they are
having problems regionally and disruptions in your service come and go. Your ATM
doesnt work and the bank is closed due to a network shutdown. You know you will
get your money eventually, but for now you are broke. Ooops! Social Security has
never heard of you! You didnt back up your work history and now you are beat, big
time. You begin to realize you could have prepared better without being one of those
"looney people". You feel bad because your children have to eat popcorn every day.
You sweat as you hear things getting worse instead of better. You call that relative
who you thought was a nutcase and you ask for food with humility in your vioce. You
accept his "I told you so", and you feel very stupid about yourself. ( I you believe this
one, congratulations! You will probably make the proper preparations. Keep
reasearching with wisdom and you'll be fine ) .

4 ) Everything will fail. We are thrown back to the stone age and we have to relearn
how to do everything without the luxury of technology. ( If you believe this one you
are one of those looney doomsdayers who are making disbelievers out of many
people including the good folks here at Kitco ) .

Keep the faith. go gold, go silver.

Had to take a break to collect my thoughts...about like trying to chase chickens..thuoghts every where!!..ha
Here goes:
1.Japan
2.Hedge funds
3.Charts
4.Open interest
5.Fertile falicies

1.I try to follow the price of T-bonds priced in Yen..the chart looks terrible!!..Yen times the price of bonds... .it is taking a nose dive..big gaps..trying to recover...if the yen gains more strenght they will start selling again...try to think like a Japanese investor thinks...the more yen you have the better it is...now you can see how the yen/bond price works...inverse to our thinking...they need to convert these $ IOU's to yen so they can get their recovery going...more yen in their economy
2.Charts...study the charts and remember when the hedge funds first started to get into trouble...they were short the market thinking interest rates would fall...you can see on the charts where they tried to "sell" the market down...from June to late Aug "someone" did a lot of selling to keep the market from going any higher...bingo..the price of bonds broke out of the 121 - 123 range and they were gone!!...now there is another funny thing about all this...somehow these funds have physical bonds in their portfolios..pledged them to the banks for collateral so they could borrow more...when the "banks" took over LTCM the bankers got possession of these bonds ...two of the rescuers also trade bonds ( top 3 bond traders control 80% of the bond trades!!...Goldman Sachs and Solomon... ( 2 of the 13 rescuers ) ...so run the bonds up then sell the physicals...now the only job is to beat the futures down so they can cover that side of the bet...confused?...didn't mean to!!
Also the spike down ( oversold ) will match the spike up ( over bought ) ...plus we are approaching the long term trend line of interest rates ( bond inverse ) ..if we cross that, ever chartist and his brother are going to sell treasuries
3. Option open interest...something like 480k puts and calls ( each!! ) ..
about 300K calls are out of the money....20k-112's,13k-114's,20k-116's,30k-118's,50k-120's,57k-122's,74k-124's,70k-126's,52k-128's....somebody bought a lot of puts..and at a low strike price..thinking it was the same boys who are short the futures..kind of a "TEXAS" hedge...
4. That is a Soros term...basicly it means "we" sometimes think our way into believing something because somebody said this or that...i.e.Fed cuts rates - interest rates go down,....Abby-buy stocks cause they will go up forever and so on and so on.....not always ..if we lived in a perfect world the case would be true...but ..it is NOT a perfect world...if you don't believe me ask one of those banks with a loan to a hedge fund

mole..bet you are sorry you asked...ha

Just another crazy thought..Chicken man..

PS I'm still interested in warrants

I too own Roayl Precious Metals. But I have little cash there. Basically, I use that account for petty cash.

If you have much money, I think it's better to buy the GOLD and GOLD STOCKS your self rather than rely on "the expertise fund management" selling gimick.

Just remember, if you buy gold, ALWAYS, I MEAN ALWAYS BUY PHYSICAL.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.85. The 233 day moving average is 28.80

Appreciate your post and especially SHAREFIN's contributions.

Regarding point 1 ) They may also pat themselves on the back for creating such a rukkus that companies paid attention.

My feeling, is that the gold market has not fully taken factored in the Y2K problem. Gold should be priced higher now cause of the potential risks to the financial system and world econaomy.

The POG will probably factor this in next year in the summer/fall.

SO FOLKS, BUY NOW WHILE YOU CAN!!

XAU/Spot Ratio = .238. The 233 day moving average is .247

Caper
Thanks for info re Franklin Mint. They market in these parts too, and, while I usually ignore the "limited-edition gold-trimmed commemorative Elvis fine-china plates" my eyes turned when they offered Kennedy half-dollars for NZ$9.00 as a teaser, so I bot one, and have since been deluged by sheer crapola. Series like "Historical SIlver coins on the USA" and "Great Historic SIlver coins of the World" and "the Coins of the Millenium" and "Gold coins of the Global Empires that Dominated the World" and "The gold treasure coins of ancient civilisations"

I have not yet accepted their invitation to "gradually increase your coin collection without risk" Talk about jewellers' mark up ( now, please, no flaming from the magnificent jewellers hereabouts, you guys add a decorative and labour value ) but these Franklin Mint fellers like their high profit margins. Perhaps the display cases cost a lot?

From http://www.goldminingoutlok.com

An excerpt,

Almost all bear markets are characterized by a fall in utilities
shares ahead of the general market. If October ends with the UTY at current or lower levels, this would mark a
clear monthly key reversal, which has strongly bearish implications. This pattern is confirmed by the Dow Jones
Utilities Index, which peaked on October 7 and is also tracing a bearish monthly key reversal. The bulk of the
decline in utilities shares occurred after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, implying that the market believes
that lower short-term rates will lead to higher long-term rates due to the inflationary implications of easier money.
The recent surge in the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond confirms this analysis.

Caper, from Aurator's post I see you know more than I do. I love it.

Your l8.44 was the most humourous post I have ever read on Kitco.

It is also very possibly the most accurate as well. Must be magic in that crystal ball ( ;- ) }

Thanks for posting Goodwin. He seems to be a knowledgeable and agreeable fellow.
I wonder what JD thinks of him. Their calls intersect fairly often.

JTF Re. your comment:

"I find all the talk frustrating, as it should be fairly straightforward for an engineer type to identify all the chips, their ID/serial#, and get the specs from the Vendor."

It is straightforeward. But you are confusing the physical problem solver's "problem" with the real "problem".... ie the bean counters and CEO's.

In the past, management would not let the employees spend the time keeping the records as to what went where and what it did. They would not pay for the time to back up the software code that runs on the chips or if they did, 3 years later the backup disk were all thrown out because the new manager said "No one uses that kind of disk any more get rid of them.".

I know I was the one told to throw out thousands of 8" and 5 1/4" floppies with just such information on them. When I objected, because we were still using equipement based on the code in the disk, his comment was: "If we have a problem we will just buy new equipment, this crap is too old any way". The bean counters got rid of him a few months later. He wanted to fix things by spending money on new equipment and they didn't like that.

As for most of the old programable chips, they laugh at you when you want to buy new ones in bulk. I could be wrong but it is probably too late to tool up for thousands of different chips and have them finished in time for the programers to redo the code burn the chips and get them to the engineers so they could install and test them.

Each chip will have to be looked at and ID seperately. There are Millions of them to be checked. Many of them are potted ( cast in epoxy ) if they were used in industurial applications. This is why many companies have decided to wait and fix them as they fail.

That begs the question: Is there time to manufacture new equipment, write the software, install it and train the employees on the equipment before the old equipment starts causing problems? What about the corporations profits during all this replacement confusion.

Given how the economy is acting the bean counters might be right when they say "We don't have the money to fix it and the banks will not loan it to us." What happens then?

I think that most of our time in the first half of 2000 will be spent screwing around with things that don't quite work right, instead of being productive. That's after we get the lights and phones turned back on. Until then we will be sitting in the dark and freezing. ( Worst case )

If I was running things I not work on anything else until the electric companies and phone companies were fixed and TESTED. Except for no checks from institutions and bank failures most other problems will only cause minor disruptions, IMHO of course.

In the worst case situation gold's value will not increase until we are on the mend from all the disruptions. It will be a way to stash your wealth until things get better but probably of little use when things are at their worst. Family, Honesty, Courage, Knowledge and Food will be the things of most value during the troubled times as it always has been.

Well of to see a movie.

One must be delireous in regard to these comments by Mr.
Embry.Missed the program but read with interest the info
from those who did see it.Extreemly unusual for analysts
or high level money managers to be quite so direct.He actually
said 400 real quick or whatever??If there are any more details
would be more than interested.

Bargains from the Franklin mint

Queen Vic Sovereign, $NZ 695 + P &P.
Morgan Dollar, common date $NZ 125


I buy sovs for NZ$150-170, Morgans for NZ$12-20.

But I don't get a fancy presentation box.

this is not my arena, but would not an easier explanation of the utility's down turn be that the utilities follow interest rates and interest rates were over bought and as interest rates corrected utilities fell? as chicken man says, just a thought.

SANTA MONICA, Calif. ( AP ) - The judge in Susan McDougal's embezzlement trial shouted and threatened to toss her out of court Friday for complaining that the prosecutor twisted her remarks in trying to bring up her Whitewater felony conviction.

``I don't care if he calls you a mass murderer!'' Superior Court Judge Leslie Light said, ordering Mrs. McDougal to be silent after she objected to a comment by Deputy District Attorney Jeffrey Semow.

Erle-- I find the RealAudios from the radio show kind of fun
for the accents from a distant place.

Deux ex machina, eh? You know back in the 14th century when they wanted to fix an otherwise irretrievable plot ( they didn't have movies, just plays ) they would have an actor playing God or an angel lowered from above the stage to zap the bad guys. Nowadays it is the y2k computer malfunction that will suddenly zap all the bad guys' computers leaving the true believers' untouched. Sometimes when I read this stuff I feel like Bill Murray in "Groundhog Day", wondering how the y2k subject could somehow be just ended and we could go on to some other equally insane conjecture?

Here's another odd and totally unrelated link for the worrywarts: http://www.dimensional.com/~randl/bigbang.htm

Think about it ...you want to sell your 100oz bars....the buyer is not going to put out that much $ without having an assay test performed....that takes how long?...and who pays for it?...for that fact how many buyers are there going to be?....let's not get cheap!!!..buy something you can sell a little bit at a time....buy 1oz coin stamped 1 oz. fine gold...something EVERYBODY knows the value of.. might even consider the fractional coins...cost more...but easier to sell..with less "change" when you buy something....

Just a thought... Chicken man...got to "fly" catch everbody later!

Plucked this out of golden eagle.

The Wizard of Fed

Last week the Fed made its celebrated preemptive strike on the financial markets by
lowering the Fed funds rate by %. The timing of the cut, coming after bond futures
had closed and the day before the expiration of October equity options had all the
hallmarks of a classic short squeeze. The fact that it was widely applauded in the
financial press demonstrates that manipulation has become the status quo in what
currently passes as a financial system.

Of course we are assured that drastic measures are called for given the instability in
world financial markets. It was only the week before that Japan's leading financial
journal the Nihon Keizai Shimbun had bluntly stated in a front page editorial, "The
nightmare of a global financial panic, emanating form Japan, is becoming a
reality."Wall Street Journal, Oct 7, 1998. In this light, and given the global
contraction in credit, it is understandable that the establishment media once again
showered praise on the Wizard of Fed for his bold action at thwarting the decline in
equity markets.

But before we quietly attempt to relegate to the history books the recent excesses of
financial leverage let us consider for a moment what they mean. Are these not the
classic examples of exuberance that years of a "too big to fail psychology" has
produced? It is the unwillingness of the Fed to allow any individual failure either on
the part of large corporations or banks that has produced an environment that puts
the entire system at risk.

An example of how far official manipulation has progressed was published in the
weekend Financial Times of October 10/11. We refer to a brief article titled "UBS
[Union Bank of Switzerland]' Breached Guidelines' on Investment in LTCM." The
information in the article was obtained from an internal document obtained by Reuters
and confirmed as genuine. The article stated that Union Bank of Switzerland entered
into its investment with Long Term Capital Management assuming that the hedge fund
had overall leverage of at least 250 times, breaching the Swiss Bank's own
guidelines. The document further stated that "LTCM has eight strategic investors,
generally government owned banks in major markets" which then owned 30.9% of its
capital. They gave LTCM a window to see the structural changes occurring in these
markets to which the strategic investors belong.

In other words, UBS was willing to breach its own internal guidelines because they
believed that LTCM had a window into official sector knowledge and therefore could
profit from changes which would not be apparent to outside observers. This is
perhaps the most massive insider-trading scheme ever realized and it is fitting that it
blew up in the participants' collective face.

It is significant that LTCM was widely believed to be short 300 tons of gold and that
the price did not explode when the bullion price rose above $300. This was reported
to be because of a central bank's willingness to allow the new owners of the firm, the
largest investment banks and brokers on Wall Street, out of the trade.

In fact, Alan Greenspan said in testimony to Congress on the issue of CFTC
supervision of the derivatives market, "Nor can private counter parties restrict supplies
of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over the counter,
where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the
price rise." ( Italics mine. )

His willingness to state that central banks would increase lending on any price rise
demonstrates that central bankers still regard the price of gold as a barometer of faith
in the financial system as it is presently constituted.

One of the nuggets that emerged from last week's IMF conference was a remark
made privately by one of the preeminent Wall St. Bankers to the effect that of course
their firm used the gold market as a source of funds for their general corporate
funding.

If this firm a member of the Gang of Eight that rescued LTCM finds 1% money
attractive, one can be certain that the others do as well. Because for all the hand
wringing over excess leverage these Wall St. banks and brokers employ exactly the
same leverage to achieve their own returns. And it is widely believed that the reason
the Fed engineered the rescue was that the counterparts in the Gang of Eight all held
similar positions in the derivatives markets as LTCM so unwinding it would be near
impossible.

We have been asked why given the explosion in the yen carry trade these firms would
continue to risk essentially the same position in the gold market? Our answer is that
these masters of the universe simply can't conceive of the fact that they might be
wrong. Look at Tiger Management. It was clear at the end of August that the yen was
not weakening and in fact was, in the face of all odds, strengthening against the
dollar. And yet Tiger waited until October to cover a massive trade that cost 9% of
their assets. Why should the investment banks and brokers that have for so long and
so profitably manipulated the gold price believe this time is any different? For two
years they have been successful in thwarting any rally, all the while availing
themselves of interest rates as low as 1%. In fact judging from their current efforts
they have reason to congratulate themselves. The price has dropped back under
$300, the XAU has retreated and the goldbugs are mired in gloom.

But as Alan Greenspan said last week that he hasn't seen anything like this before.
He was talking of course about the risk premium that the market had swiftly imposed
on anything but the safest interest rate instruments. But what he is conceding is that
there is systemic risk. In such an environment there will inevitably be an increasing
premium placed on capital preservation.

The masters of the universe would have us believe that gold is not only a poor
investment but an irrelevant one. After all, their investments are hedged. But as Henry
Kaufman put it, "you can live in the illusion you can trade out of something that is
doing poorly, which, of course, you can't when everybody reaches that conclusion."
( WSJ Oct 7, 1998 )

Everybody in the financial world has reached the conclusion that over time equity
prices are consistent winners and that gold is irrelevant. There is a tremendous
amount of borrowed gold. In The Gold Book Annual Frank Veneroso estimates the
total at 8000 tons. This amount cannot be covered in an orderly process. The only
action that the masters of manipulation can follow is to fight any price increase until
the world financial markets return to an aura of stability. But this high wire act of
financial improvisation is doomed to failure. As anyone familiar with the tenets of the
Austrian school of economics will understand, credit inflations inevitably are followed
by credit deflations.

A credit deflation, once begun, cannot be reversed by rate cuts. The cuts do nothing
to reduce the overcapacity that years of malinvestment has produced. Perhaps even
more severe is the misallocation of labor. A fire sale can clear the capital markets far
quicker than the time it takes to retrain an excess of financial consultants. And the
consequences of global unemployment, at best socially painful, can quickly turn
politically explosive. This is a process of change that will be measured in years.

The current rally in equities is allowing an opportunity for investors to liquidate their
long positions. This is a corrective rally and may even go back to test the old highs.
But it is a rally based on the premise lower interest rates can reverse the decline.
Look for increased volatility, abrupt reversals and record volume. And finally, in this
writer's opinion, a swift and stunning decline. What will the Fed do then?

Remember that unlike commodity accounts equity accounts are not segregated. If you
invest in a margin account your positions can and will be loaned or used as collateral.
Your only protection is that individual accounts are insured up to $50 million. But in
the case of systemic risk that insurance is only as good as your counter party.

Investors who hold gold stocks should take delivery of their stock certificates. As
capital preservation becomes paramount the inevitable consequence of years of
manipulation will be felt in an upward move in bullion that will make the recent rise in
yen look mild in comparison.

Greg Pickup

23 October 1998

"Why can't these analysts come right out and say it. THE POG IS BEING FIXED LOW!!! it's as simple as that. Why do we always have to read between the lines. Are us viewers that stupid?"

Tantalus Rex, it's more complex than that. The markets are just perceptions, most people don't put their money in a specific sector based on a detailed analysis of "fundamentals". They invest their money based on "perception" of where the market goes. Don't blame the analyst, ( s ) he is just reflecting the reality of the markets.

If you can manipulate a specific sector up or dawn, the investors put their money in a market sector based on where they can think they will make the profit, and it doesn't look too good for gold. You can't blame them for doing that. Unfortunately, the gold market is too small and easily "manipulated". I put manipulated in quotes, because manipulation is not much more that following the current market trading rules. If investors think they can't make money due to where the sector is going, they don't buy, and the sector is governed by short traders, and goes down even more. Unfortunately, most of the "gold bugs" predict the market based on where it should be based on "role of the gold in financial system". It would be nice if the market rules were geared toward fundamentals and not toward "Las Vegas casino"

I am not trying to defend the market analysts, however, it would not be prudent to say "gold should explode" if the current rules support some groups with vested interests ( whatever they may be ) to "manipulate" POG go down.

Tantalus Rex
Question
Is there not the problem of having to pay

for transportation and also taxes by taking physical

possession of AU ?

Slow progress-- I only today had the fax number e-mailed to me for contacting the CB-Argentina for info on buying coin. I will contact them this weekend.
Lurker777, stay tuned. If I get info on price and availability, I will ask those of you that are interested to get on board.

Happy Trails...

He may not actually have used the words REAL QUICK.

He did not side with consensus estimates of $325, but did mention $400 as more realistic considering the volativity.

He re-inforced this idea with the example of the weeakening of the US dollar aginst the YEN.

IE, IT HAPPEND QUICKLY.

I found it rather intersting that he use the term
"MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE"

Peopl know the system is rigged. But the can't come out and say it cause the media will jump all over it.

YOU GOTTA READ BETWEN THE LINES...like I did I hope.

Here's an example of the arcane things an unwinding of large
positions like those of LTCM get into, in this case sterling bond
issues.

http://www.bday.co.za/98/1023/business/b13.htm

.999pure silver layered one troy pound proof 1998
american eagle silver dollar with 1943 .50 cent piecce
at SAM'S CLUB 39.99 is that a good price

In a nutshell, you're talking about momentum. And this momentum is creating by spin doctors.

It's the baby boomers who are being suckered in, cause they are so worried about retirement.

So, it's not just gold that is being manipulated.

Long Term Rates, are they going up?
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^UTY&d=3m

HighRise

i actually figured it was something like that - tied to the japanese yen. the rest was helpful more in the fact that it pointed out the need for me to educate myself in this area. i am pretty good with macro relationships, but don't know a lot of the inner stuff. when i was in college i used to play the horses until i realized the tax take by the state was too big and the stable knowledge to difficult to overcome ( it also probably would have helped if i had done less of my handicapping stoned ) , so i switched to poker and did just fine. over the years i have concentrated on mining stocks, and the metals, but am ready to educate myself more on interest rates and currencies. i book marked your thoughts, so i can go over them. thanks again for taking the time.

Well, I know you pay a premium for it.

But so you do when you buy stocks ( ie financial advisors/commision fees/ on trades etc ) .

If you buy the certificate, the hold can always short sell it cause they have possession.

When I buy gold stocks. I always ask for the certificate, so it's in my possession. That way, the broker can't sell it ( ie can't use my shares to short sell )

IF EVERYBODY WHO OWNS GOLD STOCKS REQUESTED THEIR CERTIFICATES FROM THE BROKER HOLDING IT ON THEIR BEHALF, then is it possible for the broker to short sell a gold stock????

As I have already basically revealed myself as being naive aka stoopid-once sent for ( back of a magazine ) a 10 X 12 canvas painting-thinks it was 1973 for sumpthin like $5.00. Ad assured it was a "genuine work of art". Rec'd same quickly-extremly paper thin canvas
with a typical fruit bowl scene signed by ART. Since my Franklin purchases & genuine works of ART I am now into gold mutuals. My life is an open book.

thx, for the feeder.

It's sort of confirms the belief I've held for a while.

UK/SWISS/and US banks are in trouble in terms of the risks they face.

That's why it's always the UK and SWISS downplaying gold.
GERMANY/FRANCE/ITALY have always been the staunh supports.

AND folks whatch out for JAPAN cause the STING is ON!!!

Japan is holding the broom waiting to cleanup!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OF COURSE, AND AGAIN, THE QUESTION IS WHEN IT ALL HAPPENS.

I would appreciate knowing what you may find out re Argentine coins. My email is cdevoto@abts.net Thanx, Charlie

Hardcase: Appreciate your comments. I now am in a managerial role, and as a Physicist I have picked up enough engineering to know what to do about all the embedded chips. But -- I am the loan 'voice in the wilderness', because most CEO's etc -- business types know little about computers -- and are at the mercy of the system as it stands. My Y2k bent is about as popular as my gold bent. I have realized years ago that I can only talk to others at the level of their understanding about issues such as debt/credit/fiat currencies, or Y2K issues. Even with spouse.

I disagree with you on one item. It would not take that long for a chip company to tool up for at least some of the embedded chip demand. Probably quite a profit if a generic format could be desiged, with the pin layout to be customized. Now much of the chip pnp/oxide masking is automated, and taylored to much more complex chips such as cpu's. Would have to focus on systems that do not need upgrading otherwise, or are two expensive to upgrade every two years.

An embedded chip layoout could probably be designed overnight. I'll bet that the one to two year leadtime for a CPU with millions of transisters at Intel is not relevant. I would guess that any real man-hour work would be in coming up with a generic layout that could be flash programmed/wired for many applications. I'll bet that even at $100+ per chip the market would be highly significant. My lab could use a few, and probably save a few hundred thousand.

By the way, I know one individual who is focusing on making databases of chip layouts for these embedded chips.

He is still in highschool.

Employed in Newfoundland ( The Rock ) in the 70's. An acquaintance ran an ad in the National Enq. "Send me one dollar & I'll show you how to make 100 thou" He made 60 thou. His reply to those people-printed on an index card-"You can make 100 thou by placing ads like this in the National Enquirer. Was there a fraud???? Where is the mens rea? I dunno. Cute.
Another Chivas.

WELL SO MUCH FOR A LITTLE EUPHORIA ,ON ONE FRI.NITE

IN OCTOBER. ( EMBRY COMMENTS ) .

I THINK MAYBE THE KEY WORD HERE IS MANIPULATION.JUST MAYBE

THE PHYSICAL STABILITY ,REALITY AND VALUE OF GOLD SHALL

PREVAIL OVER MANIPULATION.AND JUST POSSIBLY THE MIGHTY

US $ IS IN LINE TO TAKE ITS TURN IN THE SEWER.

Sam ....Is this what you were looking for?
Posted on Kitco Wed Oct 21 1998 13:34
GODFATHERS OF EASY MONEY - A personal view by GEORGE SELGIN. Published in the Financial Times 21st October 1998.
Sub-Heading : Central Banks claim to be bastions in defence of their currencies. They have more often been a cause of the crises which they then take credit for resolving.
The Author: GEORGE SELGIN is Associate Professor at the University of Georgia, Athens and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, Washington DC
Regards...............Dabchick

Really cheap put for dec. plenty of gsr, and the physical stuff,
and about 3/4 in greebacks...worst case senario, $1,000 worth of
canned foods and windmill with generators and a gobs of ammo.

vive gold, ammo, and canned food

I found a sale ( a loss leader? ) on Silver Eagles for $6.75 a piece ( that's good right? ) ...........and they paid for p/h!! Limit Five per customer ( $33.75 TOTAL ) ..........I called a few of my friends...........bought 30 of 'em. Now I have fifty total in my evergrowin' collection.

Now........I guess I'll work on gettin more than 6 friends ( grin thing ) .

away.....'till next week.

gilligan

Silver breakout is IMMINENT......... ( monday, tuesday latest ) ...................the pattern is screaming.......or as the venerable cherokee would say...........my eyes are screaming!!! sheckitout!

salty, the brewin' is brewin'.......I is gettin' better.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981023/feature/feature1.html

Would appreciate any thoughts or comments that anyone might
have regarding the plight of the TVX stock price plummet after
the Ont.court judgment in favour of the Alpha Group. ( Kassandra
mine in Greece ) Maybe this is not an appropiate subject for a
Friday night.

You are wise indeedy to check into the bid price-o-bars. Peer deep into that golden luster, for costs lie within. Often there are special handling charges with bullion bars, as these are not generally delivered to private individuals. These costs can add a couple-o-$ per ounce in costs.

As you know, I am about $14 over spot for Leafs, Phillies, etc. But the bid is $2.50 OVER spot, for a total spread of $11.50 or 3.9%. Current spread on bullion bars is about the same. Let's say you can get the bars at 3%, that is about 2.50 per ounce. Now you are jumping through hoops, setting up special deliveries, and buying an extremely non-liquid form of gold, to save a couple bucks and ounce. Is it worth the bother?

When one owns bullion bars, and when one wishes to sell some gold, one must sell the entire bar. One could take a hacksaw to the bar ( to handle transactions of smaller increments ) but I suspect the bother and gold dust would make that a tiresome exercise. Big bars of gold are sexy indeedy, but too inconvenient for anything but bragging rights.

Then there is the issue of reportability. When you sell those bars back to COMEX, a refiner, a bank, or a dealer - who about the only folks who can buy those big bars from you from you - they will take your social security number and report the sale the IRS. If you refuse to give your SSN, they will withhold 30%. This is the law, and none who would buy your gold would do anything but comply with that law. This seems an unwelcome intrusion into the private commerce of free folks, yes?

Phillies, and Eagles are non-reportable

Both the Maple Leaf and the Kruggerrand are most definitely reportable.

When one owns bullion coins, the above problems of ownership are erased or mitigated.

Instead, why don't you wait for gold to hit $285 ( within 5% of the bottom of $272 ) , call me up, buy the Phillies, and save the bother?

The path of least resistance tends also to be the more discrete.

Cost differences are negligible.

OK


PS
When you do buy, please post it here.
It will drive the Runner of Guns nuts!

Tis true

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1024.htm

Every three years at year change,we had upward surge in the gold
mining index,except for 81/82,59/60,and 47/48.
Gold tops every 14.2 years,Dec'45,Feb'60,Ap '74,Aug '88,Oct '02.
Interesting to say the least

http://www.cbs.com/prd1/now/template.display?p_story=89330&p_who=network

Pardon my ignorance, but why are eagles and phillies not "reportable?

when you are screaming BREAKOUT, I assume you are saying UP, i.e. as opposed to breakdown, i.e. DOWN. Excuse the request for clarification, but it has been a TOUGH week. Not even sure I can spell my name right, much less know the particulars of your meaning. Speaking of which ( your meaning that is ) , for us unenlightened ones, WHY?

( 1 ) Hedge fund retreat is latest subordinate bond blow

NEW YORK, Oct 23 ( Reuters ) - With major hedge funds retreating from riskier assets, sellers of subordinated bonds are finding far fewer takers than in recent months, said mortgage- and asset-backed
analysts.

Hardest hit may be the home equity sector of the asset-backed securities ( ABS ) market, where investor confidence in senior/subordinate deal structures was tentative even before recent hedge fund deleveraging.
http://www.bonds-online.com/bnewsindex.html

( 2 ) Kabushiki Shinbun
February 24, 1997
"Princeton Fund" is Inwardly Popular-The Average Performance Rate is 30%

Funds Raised Reached Yen 150 Billion
Princeton Economic Institute Inc. ( Whose Chairman is Mr. Martin Armstrong ) Manages the Funds
"To explain the contents of the product, the Yen funds raised being converted into the US Dollar are INVESTED IN THE FANNIE MAE BONDS ( MORTGAGED BONDS GUARANTEED BY FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION ) . THE FANNIE MAE BONDS are treated as same as the US government bonds which have the rating of AAA. Holding the bonds yields 5.2 - 2.5% p.a. and P Fund, when they judge a good investment opportunity has come, takes a position in Futures/Options targeting main markets of the world by using 20% of Fannie Mae bonds as collateral.
http://www.pei-intl.com/Press/ASIA/AS0297A.HTM

You say you got windmills with generators.. How much volts,amps etc. you putting out.

Where can I get information regarding forward sales positions of several gold producers? ( quantifiable information )

In my last post it should have read 80/81 instead 81/82.

Doesn't look good, I was hoping that McWatters Mining could sell out their 15% interest for a good price. McWatters gained Dayton by virtue of a merger and I would like to see McWatters to concentrate in NE Canada.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw//981023/dayton_min_1.html

Actually Dayton looks like another possible causalty of government and hedge fund manipulation in the gold markets.

A beautiful coin, but that price is a bit high. They can be had for $1.50 over spot in quantity from many coin dealers, and in some cases, shipping paid.

BTW, your advice to Allen was spot on. I was raped at a younger age by an option salesman, ( silver ) and learned my lesson well. Listening to the advice of others who primarily have a commission in mind, will usually lead to grief. I don't believe RJ falls into the category of which I am speaking.

RJ... I was reading back over the past couple days posts to catch up...found this post below which indicates an ALL OUT BUY signal for Platinum! This guy never fails to call it wrong, so it must be time!

Date: Thu Oct 22 1998 12:04
farfel ( The New Gold Paradigm... ) ID#341227:

AG EDWARDS on CNBC spoke quite negatively about platinum just moments ago...calling for at least another $30 decline. At the same time, the spokesperson ( Lee Reid ) noted that gold is performing with solid strength especially in the face of platinum's continued decline. He forecast continued strength in gold.

Yet, another brick in the the foundation of a gold bull...

Thanks.

F*

RJ, DISNEY, LGB, or others of reputable ilk. Would it be a prudent move to swap out of physical Platinum into physical Gold at this time? It appears that Gold may make the first and most prominent move up - it seems questionable as to when/if Platinum would follow such a move, given its increasing view as being significant only in an industrial sense. I take note of another negative for Platinum, that of European car manufacturers being poised for a significant slow down in auto production. Not good news for Plat. I am also amazed at the vast ignorance of so many who chime comments of "what is Platinum", and "what is it good for". Tho'ts Gentlemen?

US mortgages widen as late selling overtakes buys
NEW YORK, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - Prices of U.S. mortgage-backed securities ( MBS ) were flat to firmer
late Friday and mostly outperformed Treasuries, but buying that marked most of the day gave way to selling, sources said.

"We have seen the originators start to come back in and sell," said Alec Crawford, mortgage strategist at
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Donald Fines, chief bond market strategist at Chase Asset Management, added: "This action could confirm many investors' greatest fear -- that there is another major financial crisis brewing that none of us can see yet, that could send the world into more economic chaos, and send the markets plunging even further."
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/6/focus11.html
Thursday October 15, 2:18 am Eastern Time
Fannie Mae pledges to continue commitment to Asia

TOKYO, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - James Johnson, chairman of Fannie Mae, said on Thursday that the company's benchmark notes have been in strong demand by Asian investors and pledged to continue its commitment to investors in the region.

Fannie Mae, formally called the Federal National Mortgage Association, is a U.S. government-sponsored group that purchases mortgages from banks and packages them for sale to individual investors. Its creation has sharply increased mortgage money now available to U.S. homebuyers.

``We have experienced an extremely enthusiastic response to ( Fannie Mae's ) benchmark notes, particularly from Asian investors,'' Johnson said in a statement. ``Since January, we've issued $34.25 billion of the benchmark notes.''

``At a time of unprecedented volatility in the Far Eastern financial markets, we are pleased that Asian investors continue to show strong confidence in Fannie Mae's debt securities by directing capital into our funding instruments,'' he said.

So far in 1998, Fannie Mae has made two sets of yen-denominated deals, one in 10-year notes in March and another in 12-year dual-currency in February.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981015/di.html

Used to be a vote could be bought for a watermelon, a chicken or whiskey.

Today a vote cost a good mutual fund quarterly report. Obviously Clinton

needs friendly democrats elected. But what of a man so humiliated as Clinton has been? Why is he sooo desperate to remain in office that he will fight impeachment to the last senate vote?

Neither politics nor markets are all that we may assume them to be. I fully believe the closer we approach 1/01/2000 the more non-sensical will be both politic and markets. Standard rules will yeild no bearing

on either.

Politicians by their very nature are and always will be inflationary.

Deflation has a long way to go to take us back to a 1940 dollar. Nixon's removal of US gold standard was the kick-off party to burgeoning national debt. As little as one year ago it was my perception that the threat of inflationary return approximating 7-8% would be enough to keep national debt impossible to ever balance and put interest payments alone at impossible levels ( annual debt would increase adding to total ad infinitum ) . The "solution" to this problem has never been a national priority, and Perot was a "kook" for even mentioning it. ( Don't you just love governmental negative spin attacks ) .

O.K. to the point, to wrap it up. We have our solution in place.

The final answer to national debt problems, and the reason Clinto is sooo

desperate to stay in office & it is not deflation it is the Y2K bug.

The final solution to political excess, crazy levels of debt in the US

and other nations worldwide. Politicians everywhere will have the oppurtunity to wipe all the slates clean.

Some people on this sight seem to want to get involved in argument over the possibilities of Y2K. Will we have power grid loss etc. I say yes of course we will. Look at the evidence of the government planning for it, BUT IT MAY NOT BE THE BUG THAT CAUSES IT!!!!

Those who are organizing NWO demand it. All bills must be paid at some time. Declare Martial Law in the face of worldwide emergency and recreate the world under a new set of game rules.

Eh? Impossible? We only have to wait a little over a year now to find out.

Just reading in the Northern Miner on line, about a small producer index they have.
Never seen it before...?

Date: Fri Oct 23 1998 15:49
Psilver Psyched ( Gold Bugs and Y2K ) ID#216217:

Would very much like to speak more to you about your y2k views,
especially your perception of the nuclear power plants in Russia,
Sweden and the many other countries not bothering about a problem,
until it becomes one.
In order not to waste the bandwidth of Kitco, feel free to reply
to me Reify@sitcom.co.il

Re Y2K, let me weigh in with a vote that it'll be a "non event" when it comes to living up to the HUGE "hype" we've been reading about it, especially here.

And EB, even in a "worst case" scenario.... I completely agree with you. I've been through the 1990 quake here in Santa Cruz ( like you we live only 6 miles from Loma Prieta epicenter....our place was completely trashed, even our home, and no power for an extended time ) ...also the Floods and slides of 1980... when our place was without power for weeks.

My experiences with these natural, infrastructure destroying disastors has been the same as yours. You don't need guns during these times. You need shovels to dig in with your helpful neghbors who toil side by side with you to set things right again.

This has been not only our experience, but we see this in virtually ALL the major disastors and crises that afflict our nation from time to time. Hurricanes, wild fires, Blizzards..... whatever.

Y2K fixes will have an impact on corporate profits, may affect small pockets of business and infrastructure for a time...but it'll be far from the end of civilization as we know it that the "Gloom and Doom" hypsters like Yardeni et al would have us believe.

Gunrunner has been using these pages for a personal imagined vendetta, and carrying on an ongoing and dishonest campaign against myself and my company, with intent to do harm to both. This has been going on since last April, with more than 20 different attacks on this forum and many more on K2. His mode of operation is to offer poorly written adolescent slams in public, and then gets highly specific by e-mail response. That he lies in these e-mails is evident to the readers of these ridiculous and transparent mystery messages, which is why they forward them to me. Folks are offended at his tone, his style, and his sneaky underhanded ways. A common comment is also that this guy does not seem too bright.

He has posted publicly that he will continue this abhorrent mode of behavior, and he promised to continue his private war on these very pages.

Some more aggressive action is called for, and shall indeey come to pass.

Many folks have forwarded the gunny's lying e-mails to me, most often with a comment like, "can you BELIEVE this guy? What a damn whiner.", or words to that effect. None I have spoken to, or corresponded with, have anything but slight regard for the man and his tactics. Most also go on to say, "When has this guy ever posted ANYTHING that was in the least way useful on this site? All he does is his stupid attack posts and begs for more e-mails." Again, I paraphrase, but the continuity of contempt for this fellow seems universal.

If others would like to follow the same example of these fine Kitco citizens, and would like to send the latest round of Gunny Mud e-mails to me. Please send to:

rjd@pacbell.net

For those of you who would like to remain anonymous, I have set up a Hot Mail account with the user name of GunnyMud and a password of gunny. Send your e-mail from there.

Gunnymud@hotmail.com


I think I already have most of his past lies - and they will bury him - but if you would e-mail all you have, I would be thankful.

Yes

I'll venture an opinion since you asked, but I most certainly do not consider myself an expert on the issue of Platinum's future potential vs. Gold.

I see it not as a primary metal holding, but a diversification. Platinum historically holds a value substantially above Gold, and that gap is too narrow at the moment. It will eventually correct.

Then we have the shortages that crop up from time to time. There are NO large stockpiles of Platinum sitting in vaults as there is for Gold.

PLatinum is some 25 times rarer than Gold, and of course we always here this expressed in terms like "All the Platinum ever mined would fit in a cube 25 feet square".

Platinum can rise with the other precious metals, but can also rise independantly as it has proved many times over the past few years when it's made run-ups without Gold following. Yet when Gold does move up big time, Platinum virtually always moves in tandem.

Downsides? A bit Less liquidity...though PLatinum American Eagles have mostly eliminated this problem here. Lessened demand and consumption as we see currently when worldwide slowdowns occur, etc.

Nevertheless, IMHO.... Platinum and silver both have better potential in teh short to intermediate term than Gold.

Hmm, you got me thinking, I better run off and check SWC to see if it's a "buy" yet!

sir, you're a worse bear than me. 106 indeed!

how much devastation would that cause in the world markets? oh. hold on. what time frame are you thinking of here?

then again, i'm the dope who wants to gamble $300 on what looks like a bet that's gonna lose this week. ahhh.... the lure of big returns. equity crash? hmmm.... can't rule out the possibility...hehe

Glad to see you taking action. It is warranted for certain. I simply don't undersdtand all the Kitcoites like Miro who looked at this as yet another "foodfight" with 2 particpants behaving badly. It is far from that.

When someone comes to this forum, unprovoked, unmolested and implies that one of the most valuable contributors to this forum, and the reputable firm he works for is..... unethical, a liar, a shyster, a con / fraud artist, etc. etc. in his busines dealings...... this individual who purpotrates these despicable attacks should be SQUASHED like the insect he is.

Why ALL Kitcoites don't understand this is beyond me. Good luck in squashing this whining worm.

I agree with you. There certainly is some potential for disruption, but emergency infrustructure will be mobilized quickly and those that must will sit around a play cards until called back to work. The rest will be busting their butts to set things right!

I may be the wrong guy to talk to about platinum this year. Traded from $360 to $480 last year, then $400 to $450 three more times. Palladium from $110 to $230. Those were sweet days indeedy. This year, all I did was buy platinum from $410 on down. The metal still has excellent fundamentals. Platinum has broken through $$340 4 times in 13 years, each followed by a rally to at least $400 within three months. That is not enough for some of my higher trades, but the $360s on down will be pleased.


Gold should remain depressed for the remainder of the year. Platinum should rally prior to that. I am holding platinum for the rise, and looking at getting into gold early in 1999.

The platinum plan can still work, albeit with the profits sucked out of it, but losses should be minimal. If gold does rise first ( won't happen ) it should push platinum ahead of it. In a rapidly rising gold market, platinum tends to rise twice as fast as gold.

OK

Thanks for the vote of confidence...From last night to now we have grown from 3 to the magnificent 7.

The Small Producer Index started out at 100 on September 30, 1998, weightings are per capitalization . Index is probably below 100 today.
Its made up mostly of gold and silver miners having caps of $20 to $500 million,

Hecla, Iamgold, Sunshine, Vengold, River Gold, Rayrock Yellowknife, Novicourt, Campbell Res., Alta Gold, Geomaque, Richmont, McWatters, Claude Res., Imperial Metals., High River Gold, North American Palladium and Black Hawk Mining.

I'm sorry to here about this clash you're having. I don't know exactly what it's about because I am very good at skipping the crap and getting to the good stuff - like your posts about gold. I do hope you can sort things out to your satisfaction because I miss your quality posts.

Santa Cruz isn't Watts, and you were surrounded by communities that suffered no damage, so they were free to help you with your damage. You might have a different situation when large populations find out that their welfare check isn't coming. I don't predict doom and gloom either, but I live 25 miles from a small town and most of my neighbors have wood heat, full pantries, strong families, and morals. You don't know that your house is going to burn down this year, but you probably have fire insurance. Having a little grub, cash, and a generator on hand might keep you from becoming part of the problem. Churches, community leaders, and organizations should be spreading the word for people to take some basic precautions to lessen the fear and panic that can cause their own problems.

Take care.
Cowgirl

BUGal, RJ. Thanx for your viewpoints. They are greatly appreciated. If you come across any news or have information on changing fundamentals, please let me know.

Has to do with futures and options.
If ever a contact has traded on the commodity,
It is reportable.

All gold, silver or platinum bullion
By bullion, I mean bars
Maple Leafs
Kruggerrands
90% silver coins
40% silver coins

Are reportable.

All else is not.

OK

displayed by the PLO. Who in their right mind would prefer A. Over N. N. is good looking & well tailored & looks completely American. A. is a short scruffy, ugly, little guy with a raggedy scarf on his head. Can you imagine the great image & PR if the PLO had Omar Sharif representing them.

Evolution marches inexorably on.

plug just the facts

http://www.patriottrading.com,

Umm, I may regret this, but I gotta say what I gotta say.

Anyone who has sent me an email can rest assured I shall NEVER pass the contents, nor the originator's details on to any other person without EXPRESS permission from the author. I expect no less from those I communicate with. It is a golden rule of kitco.

RJ
I expected better of you.

Thanks for the post and the mail. out the door.............

great posting-read it in its entirety. wanted you to know people read these things. thanks.

Do you mean to say that you have never helped to spread a rumor or passed on factual information in the form of gossip?

For the last six months, I have written the Weekly Precious Metals Review at: http://www.MONEX.com under the "Market Trends" button. I am not going to be writing the Reviews for the foreseeable future. The market has picked up something fierce and I can no longer devote so much time to the market report. As in all deadline journalism, the facts keep changing right up until press time, and market activity should be my primary concern. The research is useful, but I will have time for more digging since I won't be spending so much time writing it up. The Review will probably be somewhat abbreviated from now on, focusing on the nuts and bolts. Two or three people will have input, and I may offer stuff from time to time.

This weeks Review has not posted yet, but is the last I will write for a time, yes?

OK

Like I said before and will say again, I will purchase my first gold from Kitco come year 2 Grand plus 1 day.
Y2k will turn out to be a big pile of overblown CRAP.

In this corner we have:

EMBRY-Au to 400 "real soon"

In the other:

RJ- Gold to remain depressed ( depressing ) for the remainder of the year.

As a gold bug which do you take to slumberZZZZZ???? Golden night mares!!

I usually try to stay out of these things, I get enough trouble without getting on my hands and knees and begging for it. I read your note and I think you're over estimating the importance of your fight here with Gunrunner. I'll hazard a guess that most of the posters and lurkers on this group skip over posts here that are not put up in the spirit of providing information and insight. After skipping over someone's mean-spirited posts a few times, I'll tend to skip over anything posted by them for a very long time, an expedient way of filtering out material I don't want to be bothered with. I have to admit that I used to read your posts religiously. You have a lot of great insights and well-informed opinions. Lately I've been skipping over your posts. You may not care that I do, but I bet I'm not the only one. It's too bad. I miss your earlier posts.

Please forget about fighting here. This is the Kitco Bar and Grill. Pull up a stool. Have a beer on me.
-EJ

Glad to see you back.

You are truely a credit to your "profession",i.e., still selling YOUR lies.

Good luck in YOUR endeavor.

Give Lou my regards.

Gunrunner

previous 2 shorts, although not as good if I had just kept the 1st short.
It is now below it's 24 day MA.

good catch on the bedtime story. A dark tale of wretched excess; compelling writing. Forwarded it to several friends. Thx.
-EJ

If yer correct I can live with it. As time progresses and the dimension of the problem become clearer, I may join your camp. In the meantime, I bleeve I'll continue to plod along doing some simple things that don't take much time or money. ...... Bleeve it or not, these simple preps have improved the quality of function in our household. So, there is a benefit to lookin' at things in a new and different way. It ain't all gloom and doom.