Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 00:15 - ID#45173)
IMF bailout of Brazil a done deal. Not.
The impact of the last IMF bailout in the 1980s is a painful memory for Brazilians.

"Da Silva has called the administration's attempts to negotiate an accord with the fund a crime and said it would 'tighten one more knot on the neck around Brazilians.'

"A cartoon in Jornal do Brasil, the newspaper, struck the same theme, showing a drowning man being thrown a noose."

Possible I.M.F. Bailout Stirs Brazilians' Bitter Memories of '80s

New York Times on the Web

IO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- With the International Monetary Fund's annual
meeting about to start in Washington, with officials' weighing the cost and
wisdom of bailing out Brazil from its deepening economic crisis, the
prospect of a rescue package, however urgent, is stirring bitter memories among a
cross-section of Brazilians.

Although Brazilian officials have been negotiating the size and conditions of
possible aid for weeks, and the IMF said Wednesday in Washington that it was
negotiating a substantial aid package, the issue is so sensitive that President
Fernando Henrique Cardoso, hoping to be re-elected on Sunday, has not
announced a formal request to the fund for assistance.

That has not stopped Cardoso's main opponent, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the
left-of-center Workers' Party, from attacking Cardoso as a slave of foreign bankers.
In the free air time that candidates receive, the Workers' Party shows Cardoso with
head bowed as an announcer discusses the sacrifices that foreign lenders demand.

Da Silva has called the administration's attempts to negotiate an accord with the
fund a crime and said it would "tighten one more knot on the neck around

A cartoon in Jornal do Brasil, the newspaper, struck the same theme, showing a
drowning man being thrown a noose.

The outcome, due after the elections, will depend on the winner and the course of
negotiations with the monetary fund. Talks with the United States and the fund have
focused on a loan package most likely to exceed $30 billion.

Brazil had a bruising experience with the fund in the '80s, and the effects linger. A
new accord, even attached to billions of dollars, is widely seen an admission of the
government's failure to put its house in order and a humiliating surrender of
sovereignty over economic policy.

The government in has recent years made once unimaginable strides in cutting
inflation, from 3,000 percent a year four years ago to 3 percent this year. But its
budget deficit has ballooned, to 7.2 percent of the gross national product, and a
broad measure of the flow of goods and services, the current account, is running a
deficit close to $35 billion.

Deficits are not new. But the shortage of credit for emerging markets has pushed
Brazil to the brink of crisis. Since the Russian crisis began last month, foreign
reserves have shrunk, from $70 billion to $42 billion, despite moves to protect the
currency by doubling interest rates.

Brazil today is different from the country that defaulted on its foreign debt in 1981.
It is six economic plans later. Many of the officials who lashed out at the monetary
fund for imposing stiff conditions for aid 10 years ago are struggling to hold firm to
stability and have answered the crisis with pledges to cut entitlements and other

But among ordinary Brazilians, the IMF is associated, if not faulted, for a
punishing recession through the 1980s and with issuing spending limits that Brazil
failed to meet.

"There was the idea that by freezing prices and other gimmicks you could get
somewhere," said Sebastian Edwards, a professor of international economics at
UCLA who wrote "Crisis and Reform in Latin America" ( Oxford University Press,
1996 ) .

Although it signed 11 agreements with the monetary fund throughout the '80s,
Edwards said, Brazil insisted that because of its size and importance, it should not
be subject to the same conditions as other nations in trouble.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 00:22 - ID#31868)
fivelitre, Namaste' gulp and a puff to cannot beat the following product for
price and they last 110-115 addition I have tried to start fires with them and as of spills...I mention this due to children and elderly folks...get the white or clear tops as they may be listed and get a couple of the master cases...that will give you a gross of candles...excellent product...oh yeah...make sure you order extra tops...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:00 - ID#286230)
Here is some Aladdin lamp info. Note they say you should pay attention to ventilation.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:01 - ID#240288)
Alliant Energy Cautious About Y2K

This power company, in Madison Wisconsin, mentions having home generators. Says outages are possible. From the chilly midwest.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:04 - ID#31868)
this is helpful regarding fires...heating and such...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:09 - ID#284255)
The farm where I'll be moving to is 5 minutes away from Herberton.
A lovely little township.
Historical and formed on old tinfields.
You have to go over a few more hills to find gold.

As to pesimistic Y2k posts.
Most of what's written in opinion is bunk.
You got to sort through it all, to find the poignant bits.
I too suffer from overdoses.
That's when I head to the farm with the kids.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:11 - ID#31868)
fivelitre, Namaste' gulp and a puff to these may be of interest...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:15 - ID#284255)
France is ready???
Information about 2000 bug problem
I am Hossein VAEZI-NEJAD from CSTB ( French Center for Building
Sciences ) and I would like to know if in your country special
procedures have been set in order : to assess the risk of the YK2
( 2000 bug ) in building area ( HVAC control system, elevator, stuff
access or admittance control, automatic doors control, etc. ) , and to
decrease the likelihood that misfunctioning ( failure ) come true at
this date in buildings. Please if you have some information about this
let me know. Best regards and tank you.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Adr.
: Hossein VAEZI-NEJAD.
CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Btiment
Service ENEA/AGE
( French Center for Building Sciences -
Automation and Energy Management Group )
84, Av. Jean Jaures
77421 Marne-La-Vallee
phone : 33 ( 1 ) 64 68 82 89
fax : 33 ( 1 ) 64 68 83 50
Email :

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:17 - ID#39857)
for ASIO

--. . - ..-. -.-. -.- . -.. ..-

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:19 - ID#341312)
Selby, Tolerant1
Thanks for the links. The patio candles probably don't give off enough heat for my purposes, though. I suppose cracking a window a bit would provide enough fresh air for the Aladdin. It sounds like ventilation is more for oxygen supply than it is to clean the air. All in all, it looks like a good way to go for small scale light and heat post y2k. I don't plan on waiting too long to buy them as only one company makes them and they'll probably get very popular with the Y2K'ers as the day approaches.

John Disney
(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:23 - ID#24135)
lovely chilly morning ...
Cyclist ..
I reported on this a few days ago. White paper says
mining claims left unutilized for 20 years or more
would revert to the state. Believe mining companies
must be secretly overjoyed ... Believe this good
occasion cancell FT subscription. I did years ago..

Salty ..
Local Hebrew scholar says "blessed by god" .. do I
win a proize???.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:34 - ID#284255)
Confusion on a Sunday morning.
Or why gold will rocket in 15 months time.
For the techies, they will understand.
For the non-techies, some thing to think about.

Now how many data bridges does the US Gov't need? ^o-o^
Banks etc, etc, etc.

Assumption #1: It is an easy task to build all the required "bridges" for
each and every Date data elements.
( It is not an easy task. )

Assumption #2: It is possible to coordinate and enforce date formatting
agreement between every partner for a common "windowing" algorithm.
( It is not possible to ENFORCE date data formatting in the allotted time. )

Assumption #3: There is a universally accepted and implemented
"windowing" algorithm by all parties.
( There is not a universally accepted algorithm. )
Rebuttal to #1: It is a tedious and painful task to build all bridges.
If company 'B' has all of their systems committed to a window of
1951-2050, then, Company 'B' comes along and insists -- after Company 'A'
is well into their remediation efforts -- that all dates transmitted to
Company 'B' must be unambiguous using a window of 1975-2074, you have a
major problem. Should Company 'A' be required to rework their date
routines to satisfy and conform to "Johnny-Come-Later" Company 'B'? I
think NOT!

Rebuttal to #2: Coordination and enforcement falls apart due to time
constraints and honest disagreements about formatting. All lose.

Rebuttal to #3: There are a multitude of windowing algorithms out there.
If Company 'C' has 1,000 partners, Company 'C' has no authority to impose
or enforce any particular window upon any other partner that Company 'C'
deals with.


The fact is, no IT shop with two wits is converting all their database
files to 4-digit years as a Year 2000 strategy. It's too cumbersome, too
time consuming and too expensive. Period.

If a full 4-digit year strategy is implemented, it will be done via
migration to an entirely new, parallel environment. If business partners
are transmitting 2-digit dates ( derived by any windowing algorithm ) used in
computations, the dates must be fully converted/resolved to 4-digits at
either the transmission or receipt interface. No way around that, Harlan.
And it is easier said than ordered, done, tested and implemented
successfully -- in spite of how easy the simple task sounds to non-IT

Ergo, if, for example, GM decides to convert all of their in-house system
data ( dates ) to 4-digits -- which they are not -- all ( 100,000; each and
every; no exceptions ) business partners would be required to
convert/resolve their own 2-digit dates and data formatting into new
transmission record formats of unambiguous, 4-digit years to allow GM
systems to properly function. ( GM systems wouldn't know what to do with
the "2-digit garbage" records, unless GM built their own internal "bridges"
to do the resolution. ) ALL 100,000 BUSINESS PARTNERS. I ask: What are
the remote chances that _that would/could ever happen? Fat chance and
never happen -- I say! Most partners -- in Y2K arrears status -- have
neither the resources, time and or expertise to pull off such a massive
project in the time remaining. It's that simple.

If the date "bridges" are not built and/or synchronized, the entire
functionality of any system will fail/collapse.

That's the biggest risk of failure ( the domino effect ) to the entire
infrastructure, everywhere and anywhere.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:35 - ID#254288)
Hate to bore you with the same old tune

So long as we have floating exchange rates the speculative hedge fund operators will continue their plunder; enriching their fat unsrupulous asses and destroying the savings of nations.

When incorrect in their investment judgement these criminals will use their mouthpiece, the US FED and their funding agency by design, THE IMF, both supported by the the full faith and credit of the US Government and your tax dollar.

The IMF is a control mechanism of the elistist elements who will/or have, already formed the demise of indivigual nations and living standards to their own greed and benefit.

Brazil is an excellent example, where Rio merchants pay for the murder of abandoned street children and then welcome IMF money to protect a fraction of their failing businesses, while the IMF's elitist primemover's take the rest - and using your tax dollar to boot.

To stop this crap floating exchange rates must be scrapped. Jack Kemps low ball figure for the price of gold must be ignored - ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT KEMP IS A POLITICIAN - and hotair rises.

Conclusion, a likely gold price set to three figures by knowledgeable concerned citizens, with gold convertability, and gold and silver certificates exchangeable only by indiviguals to limit control by the power mongers - Meaning, NO BANKS, GE's or those of simular ilk-.

Also mortgage interest "for indiviguals" should be set at 2% below inflation to discourage usery and make the creation of inflation a difficult task.

Making a nations currency solid while promoting unencumbered holdings of real property by the citizenry is the only key to a safe and prosperous world.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:38 - ID#286230)
I'd like a little more info on the heat these lamps produce. If anyone gets some numbers please post.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:41 - ID#31868)
fivelitre, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...this I believe would help you greatly...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:50 - ID#237299)
fiveliter: @ aladdin lamps
FWIW: I think it is *more* than fresh air for the flame that prompts them to warn about fresh air.

These mantles are coated with Thorium oxide- prepared from thorium-232. That's why they emit such intense light. I have personally held a geiger counter up to these mantles and had it bury the needle. Very similar to a sample of Uranium. The drop off rate for the radioactivity was greater for the thorium than the uranium- but then one doesn't burn the uranium in a closed room and breath the fumes...get the message.

Obviously they let them sell the damn things, and we know our good government would never let industry do anything that was harmful to us. ;- )

I'd make sure the window was open, or a decent draft.

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:57 - ID#428218)
SUDDENLY, we have a "new" term.........


"The world economy is in an extremely critical situation due to a global credit crunch".........

Does this imply that the Banks now avoid RISK ? I always thought that trading in the Derivative Market was on the basis of Risk Management !

Now, it appears that the Banks are saying ....."It's all YOUR fault"....

The introduction of the "new" term, CREDIT CRUNCH.... does this imply that there are more "surprises" to pop up from the Derivative Trading.

Next, it will all be GOLD's fault............

(Sun Oct 25 1998 01:59 - ID#31868)
fivelitre, Namaste' gulp and a puff...while looking to help you I found this nifty little devil

(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:01 - ID#386245)
Nick's time test
We wound our clocks FORWARD an hour last night. Did you Cananks wind 'em back?? Kitco time doesn't jive. Are we now 16 hours ahead of youse guys??

Push 'submit' for answer.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:14 - ID#386245)
Speaking of 'daylight savings time'
Did you hear about the Queensland farmer's argument against the introduction of D.S.T.?? "How will the cows and chooks know to get up an hour earlier?"

BTW--Queensland has NOT joined the rest of the east coast on DST. You can now see what Finnie has to put up with up there talking sense about Y2K. Queensland is still in the dark ages. We put up with 'em caus they grow nice bananas and mangos ( just like we put up with Kiwis cause it's a nice place for a holiday ) . Don't expect people to 'think' in the tropics ( except for our mate Finnie, of course ) . Now, is there anyone else I can offend??

PS--gold could go down some more ( MVHO ) --perhaps lots more.

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:28 - ID#428218)

You could always try the Scots.........


(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:37 - ID#413175)
China, public firms, debit to equity 5.7:1

(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
You only like daylight saving, cause you think you'll have an extra hour of drinking time per day.

Up here - ya know in the tropics - well
We drink all day and all night. ^o-o^

Why d'ya think I'm always online?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 02:51 - ID#386245)
McGregor was on his death bed... he gasped his last words to his friend McTavish.
"Jock", he said , "There's a bottle of Scotch under my bed. When I'm gone, will you sprinkle it on my grave? Promise me, Jock, that you'll do it."
"Och, aye, McGregor, but would ye mind if I passed it through my kidneys first?"
Och aye the nooooooooooooooooooooo.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 03:00 - ID#386245)
Sergeant Major McIntosh...
...of the Black Watch Regiment walked into the Edinburgh pharmacy. He placed a tattered old condom on the counter and asked the pharmacist how much it would cost to repair it.

The pharmacist held up the ragged condom and inspected it closely. "It needs a good rinse out and a few holes need patching. It's ripped down one side, but I suppose we could stick that together. But quite honestly, it would be just as cheap to buy a new one.."

The Sergeant Major said that he would have to think it over. The next day he returned. "The regiment have decided to invest in a new one."

(Sun Oct 25 1998 03:08 - ID#386245)
Haggis aka Greenstone Gold
Any connection to GNR ( Greenstone Resources ) , mate. Is your company listed?? Am looking for new improved ways to throw my money away. Cheers, Nick ( mother was a McLachlan ) .

(Sun Oct 25 1998 03:33 - ID#386245)
All you chartist types out there.
If gold goes down to the mid-280's from here, it would make a very nice head and shoulders bottom pattern. There are no guarantees, however, that the puppet masters will be able to stop at a pre-conceived level.

Another week of Dow dithering. Nobel Piece...err...Peace Prize to the Prez. Democrats make up ground at the elections. Then let more air out of the bubble. All pre-ordained. You betcha!!

Cheers, Cynics-R-Us

(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:00 - ID#284255)
Savage - I think it was you asking?

From your Gov't:

7. What about stocks?

'In early July, Wall Street began a series of tests to make sure that their computers would run properly. By starting the tests early, they hope to correct any unforeseen problems that arise. However, it would be wise to make paper copies of all your records, just in case a problem arises and records are temporarily inaccessible."

(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:07 - ID#71231)
Comments on US markets' "artificial" resilience
This is my take on what is happening, from a letter to Fleckenstein ( he liked the analysis ) . All - I am still looking for holes in this scenario. Please tell me if you think this is correct, if not, please tell me what you think is wrong with the arguments.

The players in the drama and the nature of their parts:
1. Investment banks, brokerages and their trading departments: ( a )
goals - sell options ( calls and puts ) to reap the benefits of the time
premium. Hedgeing is not a real possibility - what they sell is
volatility and the possible hedges cancel each other to leave net
exposure to volatility - and may atually create it. e.g. - to hedge a
put one sells short, while doing so causes the price to decline and
increases the value of the put obligation. So they usually start with
some net exposure and hedge if the price moves against them, thus making
the situation worse ( remember portfolio insurance in the 87 crash? ) .
( b ) Their risk planning allows 10% market moves ( statistical
calculations they use are remarkably primitive for this day and age and
rely on insufficient data ) . 15% will endanger their capital base. 20%
will eradicate all their capital and cause default on obligations
( Barrons interviews in November, April and other issues ) .
( c ) Previously, they had enough cash on hand to buy the market exactly
at the 10% drop point through the futures markets. The disintegration of
the emerging market, mortgage, Yen Carry, and junk bond positions tied
up their capital and they couldn't do it.
( d ) They borrow emergency money from commercial banks. ( e ) with fresh
funds on hand from the banks they buy the market. ( Each stock's price is
manipulated to minimize payout on options ) ( had about 40 bil in capital
- now 30?? )

2. Banks: ( a ) Are creditors to investment bankers and brojerages. ( b )
are damaged by the bond market disintegration. ( c ) go to the FED for
more money, threatening self immolation if demands are not met for more
money to lend to investment bankers so they can buy back the equity
market. ( have about 500 bil in reserves )

3. Shorts: ( a ) In recognition of the remarkably bad investment
situation, shorts start their work in August of last year. ( b ) shorts
start piling up on the hillariously valued and funduumentally weak
techs, cokes, GEs and internauts through June. ( c ) They are squeezed
into the July highs and reestablish positions on the way down. The July
high was not a bull market top - it was a short capitulation. ( d ) The
thoroughly researched bad investments get a new short following.

4. Fidelity and other well connected mutual funds: ( a ) have been playing
the short squeeze game for quite a while and orchestrate this with
inside information on short positions from their own brokerage arms or
from their loyal and ever helpful brokers.. ( b ) took out credit lines
from money center banks so that they did not need to sell into a falling
market as mutual fund withdrawls mount. Some of the credit may have been
used to maintain prices.

5. FED: ( a ) Wants to maintain growth, full employment, stable banking
system and value of dollar. ( b ) Bank threats of destruction lead to pump
priming on an unprecedented scale when the exposure of the hedgies and
brokers is known. ( c ) realize that more pumping will just send the
markets into more absurd territory, but are faced with a connundrum.

Current situation - FED must continuously lend to banks who lend to
brokerage and investment banks. - printing money saves the system but
brings inflation - that weakens dollar and gold prices to rise - that
causes yen and gold carry unwinding - that threatens the banking
system. The only solution is to find a value "sink" for all the new
credit created that can be given infinite or near infinite value and
will continuously attract investment into dollars. This value sink, in
the normal course of money pumping ( inflation ) is gold and the other
precious metals and then commodities, and finally labor ( particularly
management ) , that have competing values. Bonds are valued by yield and
risk and are not suitable as value sinks. Stocks of humdrum businesses
can't be sinks for excess credit because they have rather obvious
business values. However, stocks that represent "brand names", "superior
business model", "dominance of business terrain", "internet", "medical
breakthroughs", and "new technologies" can take up large ( infinite? )
ammounts of "value" because much is intangible in their valuation - it
is as high or as low as the public's imagination of their potential.
Further shares can be issued ad-infinitum, as long as the FED is willing
to finance banks to help the poor investment banks and brokerages who
sold puts on these things ( and hedged with a short ) .

When shorts point out the fact that valuations are unreal and act on
their perception, they can be forced into becoming the buyer of last
resort, the "greater fool". When shorts capitulate and cease re-shorting
their favorite duds, that is when the market looses its last source of
funds ( aside from additional leverage ) and starts to sink.

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:30 - ID#428218)
Nick@C (Sergeant Major McIntosh...)

Waste not, want not..............perhaps a lesson Wall Street could learn, or should I say are about to learn !


An American, Aussie and Scotman in a bar drinking beer. A fly lands in each of their beers.

The American scoops his out with a spoon and drops it on his saucer.

Aussie blows fly off in cloud of foam.

Scotsman gently picks it out by the wings, shakes it off, and says quietly, "allrrrright you little booger, spit it oooot!"


Did you hear about the Scottish Mathematician, who invent a new function for a Derivative ?

Two bits of fu*k all.............

Och aye the noooooooooooo.........

(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:37 - ID#25490)
Archie & Veronica ANOTHER PUZZLE

When it comes to sports betting at kitco, my record has to be the worst. You shoulda taken my silver dollar. Otago a fine win over Waikato by almost 30 points, and all I lose is a Kate Shepherd Paper note. ( Kate Shepherd, leading suffragette, her face on our $10 note, NZ women were the first in the world to get the vote, makes us both proud and sorry. )

You have it!



Now, we all know that young ( ? ) Archimedes cried Eureka! when he sat in the bath and watched the water spill over the rim...But, I have a question for you all......

That is, "what puzzle did Archie solve when he found the answer in his bath?" Why did he cry 'Eureka'?

I think there's two ( 2 ) prizes here.....One for the ahhem, correct answer, and one for the most imaginative answer....

catch you in the morning

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:38 - ID#428218)
Nick@C (McGregor was on his death bed...)...

Aye, ya cannie be too careful now a days...... and for the benefit of our North American cousins, the "real thing" is not coke !

Do our North American cousins realize that the Grand Canyon was formed, because a Scot dropped a penny in a golf hole.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:45 - ID#224230)
The man in the bath realised he'd found an easy way to calculate the VOLUME of an irregularly shaped object. A problem that had apparently been bothering him for some while - Strange dude with nothing better to worry about !

Now what I want to know is.....what exactly has that got to do with the price of gold ? ! : )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 04:53 - ID#252391)
ORO and Nick@C
Great piece ORO. I'll have to read it several more times to understand all its implications, but bottom line, does it mean now is a good time to buy Yahoo??

Nick - head and shoulder bottom on gold - actually I was thinking just the same thing for a moment myself earlier today. Spottings of future Head and Sholder patterns are only rivaled by sitings of UFOs. A good head and shoulder bottom is pretty rare and in my opinon does not occur in the middle of a trading range.

I think it could be a couple of good news weeks for the stock market. The Democrats won't loose as badly as thought earlier because the Americans don't want Clinton to be impeached. After the election as the Republican move along the impeachement trail their efforts will engender more riddicule. The stock market will soar when Clinton gets off and because Japanese second instalment of their big bang will provide for more exudus of yen into the American bond and stock market.

I am at a lose to fiqure out what will happen that will lead to higher sustained gold prices, nothing has been sufficent to date. I suspect we will see more false head and shoulder bottoms and weaker failing rallies at $300. Perhaps this picture will change as the Central Bankers start fighting for growth over the containment of inflation, perhaps that will start with the new year - still I see gold being contained, perhaps at a slightly higher lever. Silver and Platinum will recover more.

Dow 10,000 before Gold $315?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 05:01 - ID#284255)
Eureka - Archimedes
The story is that Hiero gave some gold to a smith to be made into a votive crown, but suspecting that the gold had been alloyed with an inferior metal, asked Archimedes to test it.
The philosopher did not know how to proceed, but in getting into his bath, which was full, observed that some of the water ran over, and immediately concluded that a body must displace its own bulk of water when immersed.
Silver is lighter than gold, therefore a pound weight of silver is bulkier then a pound of gold and would consequently displace more water.
Thus he found that the crown was deficient in gold.

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Oct 25 1998 05:04 - ID#428218)
The numbers keep on changing................

It has just taken 106 seconds to knock up another US$ 1 000 000 into the US National Debt !!

Now, 3333 ounces of gold cannot be produced in 106 seconds !

Tells me something


(Sun Oct 25 1998 05:30 - ID#284255)
It makes one wonder???
The following article was originally to be found at this address.>

It has been removed now.

Check this directory:

It has gone.
Now why would they do that?
Emergency Planning for the Year 2000:
Preparation or Panic?
Major General Edward Philbin
Executive Director
National Guard Association of the United States

October 2, 1998
Washington, D.C.
Emergency Planning for the Year 2000: Preparation or Panic?

Mr. Chairman, I am Major General Edward J. Philbin, USAF ( Ret. ) , the Executive Director of the National Guard Association of the United States ( NGAUS ) . I am present to offer opinions on the problems that may arise as a result of non-compliant computers and computer dependent systems that are unable to transition through midnight, 31 December, 1999 and the role the National Guard could and probably will play in managing emergencies arising from those problems. My testimony generally reflects the opinions of the Association and its members, who are the commissioned and warrant officers of the Army and Air National Guard. It should not be construed as representing the official positions of the Department of Defense or of the National Guard Bureau.

It is increasingly evident that an appreciable part of the nation's infrastructure could be adversely affected in some way, by what is commonly referred to as the Y2K problem. In general, the National Guard has the capacity to provide Military Support to Civilian Authorities ( MSCA ) and can contribute a myriad of human and equipment resources to restore essential operations disrupted by Y2K generated incidents.

Considering the possibilities of a large scale disruption of governmental, commercial and other routine daily activities, it is certain that the National Guard will be among the first organizations activated to assist in the revitalization of the nation's computer dependent infrastructure. As with hurricanes, floods and other incidents requiring a quick reaction by a well-trained and equipped on-site team, no other organization will be able to respond in support of police, fire fighting and other civilian emergency responders, to major crisis situations that may be caused by Y2K disruptions as well as the National Guard. The National Guard's practiced interaction with state and local organizations and its connections to the National Command Authority provide a unique emergency response capability not found in any other federal or state organization.

The immediate need is to determine what responsibilities the Guard will be expected to assume in the management of the Y2K related problems, that many analysts have forecast, which have the potential to trigger the destabilization of societal functions. The National Guard needs to be prepared to assist in maintaining or reestablishing essential stability in the civil sector.

I suggest that the Department of Defense ( DoD ) must develop a clear concept of how the National Guard will be required to respond to the spectrum of problems that could be created by a Y2K disruption. The DoD, through the Chief of the National Guard Bureau ( NGB ) , must now coordinate with the Adjutants General and the Governors to determine the likely, locality specific scenarios that may arise in a Y2K situation.

The DoD should also assist the Governors and State Emergency Response Coordinators to ensure that the National Guard itself will not be impaired by the effects of a Y2K incident at a time when it will be most needed.

I suspect that, to date, this has not been a priority effort on the part of the DoD, even though to properly prepare for possible Y2K disruptions, the OSD must be cognizant of the importance of the National Guard being made fully capable of responding to any such technical breakdown.

We must be certain that the National Guard will not itself be a victim of any Y2K disruption. All National Guard units in 3,200 locations throughout the nation, must possess computer dependent equipment that is Y2K compliant. Responding to the consequences of a Y2K disruption will be futile if the National Guard's operations are plagued by the very consequences the Guard is attempting to manage. It is critical that the Y2K response requirements of the National Guard be fully funded to ensure that it is able to respond quickly and effectively to the needs of the community. I respectfully request, Mr. Chairman, that this Committee urge the Senate to provide full funding for Y2K compliance upgrading of National Guard equipment as one of the highest priorities for such funding, since the Guard will be among the first responders to a Y2K incident together with police, fire- fighting and other civilian emergency response personnel.

The critical first step in ensuring that the National Guard will be fully prepared for a possible Y2K calamity is the collection and sharing of information. When I was Commander of the New Jersey Air National Guard, the State Adjutant General, for the first time requested all of his commanders to conduct a survey to identify all of the Army and Air Guard resources that could be made available in response to a state emergency. My survey of the New Jersey Air National Guard identified a surprisingly long list of both mundane and sophisticated equipment which could be useful in responding to a state emergency. I strongly recommend that such a survey of the available resources of both the Army and Air National Guard of each state and territory be conducted prior to midnight on 31 December 1999. Equally important, we must determine how the National Guard will interact with the Federal Emergency Management Agency ( FEMA ) and the DoD in response to Y2K induced emergencies. Command and control of multiple agencies must result in mutual support rather than multiple collisions in addressing emergency situations.

Therefore, a comprehensive study should be conducted on the potential roles of and the interaction between the FEMA, the DoD, and the National Guard of the various states and territories in response to Y2K induced problems. I applaud the recent inclusion of the National Guard in the President's Y2K subcommittee on emergency response chaired by FEMA and believe that the subcommittee, with the DoD, National Guard Bureau ( NOB ) and the Adjutants General must develop a cohesive strategy that prepares this country for any event of mass effect leading up to and after midnight, 31 December 1999. Mr. Chairman, let me stress the need for the Adjutants General to play an important role in the development of this strategy. In most cases, it will be the Adjutants General who will integrate the planning efforts for their respective states, with those to be developed by the National Command Authority.

As you are aware, the Quadrennial Defense Review highlighted the role of the National Guard in homeland defense of the United States. While the Guard stands ready to meet the needs of the citizenry during any Y2K incident, it is important that in preparing for that eventuality, the National Guard's ability to respond to it's Total Force mission of rapidly expanding our Army and Air Force in response to a national threat not be denigrated. Funding for current combat readiness resourcing should not be used to enhance the Guard's ability to respond to a Y2K event. As an example, it is becoming increasingly evident that the current structure of the Active Duty Army cannot execute the two Major Theater Wars ( MTW ) strategy without the assistance of the Army National Guard Combat Divisions and Brigades. This increased dependency on the National Guard requires increased, not decreased combat readiness resourcing to enable the Guard to accomplish its historic combat mission. Mere reallocation of current funding to Y2K missions will have a negative effect upon the National Guard's ability to recruit, train and keep our soldiers and airmen combat ready to respond at a moments notice to a national threat.

The Year 2000 challenges present an emergency scenario unlike any other in our nation's history. Our technological society has grown extremely dependent upon the continuity of computer driven systems and networks and as a consequence, the nation's vulnerability has increased appreciably. Any significant disruption of our computer dependent infrastructure could result in a significant societal disruption. However, with the cooperative interaction of federal and state governments, the military, the private sector, and with serious advance preparation, the impact of such an event on the American people can be significantly reduced, if not totally eliminated.

Mr. Chairman, members of the Committee, I would like to thank you for the opportunity to offer the opinion of the National Guard Association of the United States on the readiness of the National Guard to deal with potential Y2K emergencies. As we have for over three and a-half centuries, the National Guard of the United States, Army and Air, stands ready to protect the nation against military threats and local disasters. This concludes my statement subject to your questions.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 05:48 - ID#39857)
Nick@C is it possible
.....for you you to provide a precis of your last 5 posts to us at Kitco so
we may untie the web that has been weaved by Nick, nick, nick......
Greenspace cadet and the holy ocker.............???????????

(Sun Oct 25 1998 06:24 - ID#284255)
Utilities update commission on Y2K readiness

(Sun Oct 25 1998 07:24 - ID#284255)
Snipped from the web - case closed
Someone who' "Been there; done that"

I am brand-new to this list, but not new to the need to be prudent and
prepare for adversity.

Most of the things one needs to do in preparation for the worst, I have
already done. Unlike most of you on this list I am 74 years old, and grew up
on a farm in Arkansas. I know exactly what it is like to live with NO
utilities. And I do mean NO. NO electricity; NO running water; NO gas; only
those things which we could produce on our farm with our own hands.

My point is, I know how to do the necessary things, and will be happy to

Like you, after all the study I have done, and the fact that I am a computer
professional, and engineer ( Texas AM Class of '61 ) , I still don't know
whether this whole thing will be a "non-event" or a major problem. My
conclusion: If I don't prepare and help secure the survival of my family
then I am not a responsible person. If I am alive on December 31, 1999 I
know exactly where I will be - at our retreat on 10 acres of wonderful
sandy-loam soil that will grow anything, with a water well dug by my wife's
grandfather, and which still happily produces water, and from which water
can be lifted with a bucket.

I will be happy to share with all of you the big and little things which one
needs to know in order to survive.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 07:27 - ID#341189)
Interview with James Grant in todays NYTimes - Buy gold and Japanese small caps

As almost anyone with a market memory can attest, the month of
October is not usually friendly for stocks. Since 1915, the Dow
Jones industrial average has fallen an average 0.17 percent in the 10th
month of the year, according to Birinyi & Associates. Only Septembers
have been worse.

This year, September was a washout. But with one week to go, October
has proved to be the best month since January 1987. The performance
has been enough to induce hibernation in many bears.

Then there is James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

Q. Many people seem to think the stock market has seen its lows. You
don't agree?

A. If this were the bottom, it would be the most remarkable one in
history, one where the Standard & Poor's 500 index is trading at 25 times
earnings. That is a valuation rarely achieved at the top of a market.

I think that this is a bear market rally. I would suppose that if the market
gods were designing a bear market rally, they would make it look as
irresistible as possible and would want as many participants as possible
before opening the trap door.

Q. But there are hundreds of stocks, especially small caps, that are down
25 percent or more this year. Are they overpriced?

A. Really cheap stocks are beginning to appear. The great, overarching
question is whether you are well advised to seize values in the secondary
and tertiary parts of the market when the primary market is selling at these

In my view, the answer is no, because when the GEs, the Charles
Schwabs and the other chosen fall, they will crush the smaller ones
beneath them.

Q. Do you see value anywhere?

A. I have two favorite things: small-cap Japanese stocks and gold. There
are opportunities in Japan to buy profitable companies at little more than
the net cash on their balance sheets. You get the business for free. Gold,
now at an 18-year low, has disappointed more people than the old
Brooklyn Dodgers. But I think it will be the beneficiary of continued
chaos in the credit markets and a worldwide economic slowdown.

Q. Do you see anything of value closer to home? Or a company that is a
massive, screaming short?

A. I see both, actually.

In Canada, there is an outfit called Legacy Hotels, which is a real estate
investment trust with a bunch of lovely properties spun out by the real
estate division of Canadian Pacific. You can buy this stock for about half
of book value, with a yield in the low teens, an outfit with good
management that is priced in Canadian dollars, which are very cheap
relative to the U.S. dollar. The risk is that there is a severe recession and
the business travelers stay home.

Q. What about the screaming short?

A. The short sale is Charles Schwab, a stock that is trading at 38 to 40
times earnings, 10 times book value. Schwab is priced as if there were no
doubt about the continued health and prosperity of the bull market.

Q. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates twice in a matter of weeks,
fears of a credit crunch and recession have diminished. Is that an
appropriate reaction?

A. The credit crisis may sound melodramatic, but over the last several
months there has been a very severe bear market in credit of all kinds.
And it should be seen in the context of the preceding bull market in credit,
where it was freely, if not almost promiscuously, available.

There is no recession we know of right now, and yet we have had a
credit crisis in this country, which in the postwar period is a rare if not
unique occurrence. It makes you wonder what will happen to this
institution of borrowing and lending if there is an actual deflation, or an
actual recession.

Q. But isn't it the Fed's job to take steps to prevent a credit crunch?

A. It has been the suppression of cycles that paradoxically has created a
lot of the volatility we have seen in the credit markets. By succeeding in
perpetuating the expansion, the Fed has failed in the sense that it has
changed the behavior of people with money.

By saving Mexico a couple of years ago, the authorities changed the way
people view sovereign credit risk. Hence the surprise when the Russian
government defaulted. A visitor from Mars would not have been
surprised that a country without money could not pay its bills. But many
were surprised, because they had come to expect that the integrity of the
system will be defended.

By suppressing the volatility of the credit and business cycle, by trying to
head off price inflations and deflations, the Fed has thrown a boomerang
in the air, which is the risk tolerance of people who invest money.

The Fed ought to be in the business of central banking, not central
planning. Alan Greenspan ought to say that people who risk money stand
to lose a lot of it. That is in the nature of cycles and markets.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 07:28 - ID#284255)
Art Bell returns! -snipped from the web.
He had an announcement at the very beginning of the show tonight - I
think Hilly Rose is replaying it at times. He still won't say but
insists it was not a scam, hoax or attempt to negotiate a better
contract ( which I've never thought anyway ) and that with the help of his
network and others he sees a possibility to overcome the threat to his
family where before he saw no way. He said himself that he is returning
to the show on Wednesday night - October 28! Just in time for Halloween - - Ghost to Ghost! : )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 07:32 - ID#284255)
How Russian Companies Are Surviving
By Bruce Alan Johnson
Senior Fellow
The Hudson Institute

Russia has forever been a land of secrets, and if Solzhenitsyn is right,
she shall ever continue to be. One of her best-kept secrets right now is
how the nation?s businesses are actually able to keep running?businesses
that have no rubles or dollars, and which face a vicious Soviet Mafia
that extorts sometimes as much as 30% of the meager cash earnings of
smaller firms.

In a town not far outside Moscow, Natalya Karpova was told that a train
had just pulled in with a load of concrete utility poles on one of its
cars. Karpova rushed excitedly to the railway station because this meant
that her factory?which had been manufacturing fabrics for 157 years but
had not been able to pay its electricity bill for almost a year?could now
pay its bill. Using marvelous ingenuity, Karpova and colleagues at the
factory had convinced the electric company to accept concrete utility
poles instead of cash for the outstanding debt. But how could they
possibly have obtained the poles without rubles?

This is the story of one of those well-kept Russian secrets. Rushing from
town to town in a wide-sweeping circle more than 0 miles wide,
Karpova?s team went to work. They produced a quantity of fabric, and
shipped it to a clothing manufacturer some 0 miles away. In
consideration of the fabric that was so hard to get hold of, the clothing
manufacturer produced a quantity of uniform shirts for the security
guards of an automobile factory not too far away.

In exchange for the shirts for its guards, the automotive factory sent
one new truck and one new car to a concrete factory that was desperately
in need of the vehicles. And as payment for the vehicles, the concrete
factory produced and delivered the concrete utility poles to the electric
company in Karpova?s town.

That?s how hundred and thousands of companies throughout Russia are
surviving today. It?s not simple barter. It?s called triangular
countertrade, a complex form of financial engineering that today is about
the only way that cash-strapped companies in poorer countries can
survive. Well, you may ask, that?s fine, but if there?s such a serious
shortage of rubles, how do they pay their workers? Often they don?t pay
them. But usually they pay them in goods, which are then bartered
one-to-one by Russian citizens right on the streets ( especially in the
market squares on Saturday mornings ) .

There?s no limit to the variety of goods being paid, either. Recently a
town in the center of Siberia found itself facing a large group of rather
burly crop-dusters who had not been paid for some time. After some
haggling, the crop-dusters agreed to accept the town?s "payment" in the
form of a large delivery of old airplanes. The crop-dusters set to work,
stripping off the wings and then selling the fuselages to villagers as
dachas or country cottages. ( Owning his own dacha is the dream of every

Russian. ) And how did the villagers pay the crop-dusters for their new
country digs? With fruits and vegetables harvested from their small
private garden plots, with eggs, with some home-sewn winter boots.
Whatever the villagers had to trade.

Is this financial engineering system an efficient deployment of capital?
Economists assure us that it is not, because it keeps inefficient
enterprises going, where the rigors of a truly free market would force
them to close their doors. It deprives the government of tax revenues,
too, which in turn prevents them from paying state-employed teachers and
miners, not to mention the Russian military.

But the people of Russia are facing a complete melt-down of their
economy. Those readers older than 60 probably recall the fierce
determination and resourcefulness of the Russian people when they faced a
brutal invasion by Nazi forces during World War II. This same
resourcefulness kept the Russian people alive during 77 years of
unimaginable shortages that they suffered under the hammer and sickle of
the Soviet government. And it is keeping them alive today as they wait
patiently for the first signs of moral leadership in Moscow.

More than 80 years ago, Lenin and his henchmen set up a vicious central
government they intended to serve as a substitute for God, for a moral
force greater than man. In fact, on more than one occasion Lenin said
publicly that the soviet state is God. Truth suddenly was stripped of its
moorings and set adrift on a sea of empty platitudes about the
superiority of the Soviet people. "Workers of the world, unite?you have
nothing to lose but your chains!"

For the next seven decades, the people of the old Soviet Union were told
that "truth" was whatever the Communist Party defined it to be. And all
challenges to the party?s definition of truth were handled with a
merciless brutality, sometimes extended across an entire Soviet
"republic," like the forced starvation of the Ukrainians and the Kazakhs
in the 19s and 1930s. Suddenly the party is over. But the Russian
people ( nearly 300 million of them today ) have not been taught by the
West how to obtain that moral anchor in their leadership that in their
hearts they know they need.

Until they are helped to find that honest leadership and the fiscal
discipline that comes with it, there are going to be a lot more concrete
utility poles and airplane fuselages patching together the Russian

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 07:37 - ID#341297)
James Grant article
Agree with the PM part...but IMHO the $/yen spread will probably more than wipe out all gains in Jap stock market

Just a thought...Chicken man...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 08:14 - ID#284255)
Help Stop the Terminator

Where will you hide your gold?

Under a ton of water.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 08:44 - ID#341297)
sharefin @ I'm a "wondering"
Dug out old ..and I do mean old atlas to try to find out what part of AU Cairns was in ....appears to be a nice place to ride the third rock from the sun....if you have an URL of a map of NE AU...would appreicate it...

Curosity is killing this ole bag of feathers...Chicken man..

(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:00 - ID#333126)
economic policy turns political turmoil
the ongoing problem in Malaysia...

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:01 - ID#295111)
@Miro, @Carmack, @Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug - Re: Embry Comments
Hi Guys/Gals,

They just reran the Business show today where they interviewed Embry of Royal Mutual Funds.

To clarify my comments on Friday night ( Oct/23/98 ) where I said the POG could go to $400 REAL QUICK.....

Embry said "If the POG breaks the $300 barrier, we could easily see $400"

So, when I said REAL QUICK, that was my interpretation of Embry's comments that day when he said we could easily see $400.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:03 - ID#333126)
chicken-man @ y2k hideouts
Cairns is in far northern Queensland.

takes a ... erm ... 2 hour+ flight from Sydney.

dunno about you, buddy, but i'm spending those last days of '99 and the first few of '00 with family in Malaysia ( having made friends with lotsa food producers ) ...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:05 - ID#284255)
Chicken Man
Cairns is the best place in the world to live.
So long as you don't mind tourists. ( 30% of the population )
And have lots of cold beer.

Saturday was a doozy.
Had a 'wake' for a dear old dog who passed away.
A 96 year old dog - well 13.5 human years old.
A Border Collie like 'Dog' out of 'Footrot Flats'

Who needs an excuse when it's hot and sweaty.

Here's a top site to look at.
You can dream of your next holiday sitting under a coconut tree
Watching the girls and sipping on a mango daquairi.

Such is life in the tropics.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:06 - ID#333126)
aussies saying the US markets are risky

(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:11 - ID#284255)
Snipped from the web - don't miss out

I have been to our local cannery twice and although our appointments as of yet
have not been cancelled or postponed, they have made some changes and are
always in the process of doing so. The total number of people in our group
that can go has been cut down and we've heard they will possibly start
limiting the number of cases each person can bring home. The volunteers there
have always been very helpful and gracious. They are trying to get as many
people in as possible, but the whole system is under a lot of pressure these
days. Our local cannery is doing 30 times more business right now than they
were a year ago. They have been out of many things each time we have gone,
but since most of us are just beginning, we canned everything that we could.
One thing they have allowed us to do is to put in orders for bulk food and
that way we are more likely to get in the specific things that we want to can.
I put in an $800 order for myself, my mom and sister. You order the food and
then pay for it when it comes in - usually about 4 weeks. If you're near a
cannery, you might ask them if they will allow you to do this.

We do anticipate that sometime in the near future they may close down the
cannery to non-members.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 09:22 - ID#341297)
Nick@C @ Head and Shoulders -good shampoo!
Can "see" your case for a head & shoulders on the charts...or should we say "possible" H & S ...
Checked out Privateer's charts last night ...clicked all charts...the $US price of gold has not really had the nose dive as the price of gold has in terms of Yen/gold, DM/gold,etc.
My "thoughts" are the US/gold price is going to under go the same price action as the rest of the currencies/gold
The hedge funds are probably getting their 60 day notices from their clients to withdraw funds....they can't pussyfoot around much longer waiting to unwind their hedges...."if one could even call it a hedge"...
this short Yen/long treasuries ( yen-carry ) position amount to estimated
10 Trillion....this could get real ugly- real fast IMHO...that could give gold a spike bottom....wipe out all the "weak" longs...then take off like a rocket...IMVHO!!!

Just a thought...Chicken man...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:11 - ID#341312)
Tolerant1, Obsidian
Appreciate the links and comments. I copied the fire safety recommendations for kerosene heaters to a text file for future reference. The mantles are radioactive? Good thing they're only for emergency use! I'll have to look into that.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:12 - ID#43349)
Economic War

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:18 - ID#277224)
Tantalus Rex

Thanks for the clarification.It was only several
weeks since we saw the 300 level and of course the
present trading range does not see us that far away...
Just a brief comment in regard to the Privateer
gold commentary which suggested that "gold will not
perform as long as the financial system is under
control." Only two years ago when gold was in the area
of 400 and in 1980 ( Jan ) when AU was 850 was the
system that wacked and endangered.I think not.
In 1980, of course, we did have double digit inflation
and high interest rates and these were different times
but each day is different with new factors coming in to play.
I guess I am more inclined to believe something more sinister
like the supression fix being in play to protect the asses
of those involved in the hedge funds.But the basic foundation
of our financial system and the ability to repay debt being
threatened by gold trading over 300????????Yeah right!

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:32 - ID#43349)
I hear a train coming
The current seemingly now diminshing financial chaos the global economic system has gone through basically came about because there is no single universal currency be it gold backed or whatever. This allowed one currency to played against another and various carry trades to build up huge excesses from use of leverage that eventually turned agains them. Indeed we are not yet out of the woods but only waiting for more shoes to drop as we sit calmly in the eye of the financial hurricane.

Interstingly enough, the chaos would have been far worse if it were not for the fact that many countries include a large holding of US dollars in their reserves and many global transactions are carried out in dollars rather than local currencies. The dollar, also, is loosely linked with gold. Although the price of gold has gyrated wildly in local currencies it has varied little in dollars over the course of the storm ( some would differ but the fact remains the price has stayed around 300 +/- 30 that us to say within 10% of 300 over the course of currency gyrations not seen in decades.

The dollar ( and gold sorta ) have had a certain stabilizing influence due to their semi universal currency status.

The coming war between the dollar and the Euro will be a step in the wrong direction. A step away from a universally accepted currency that would stabilize global markets ans a step toward outright economic warfare. Each will attempt to attain and hold it's place in the sun as currency of choice.

European divisiveness gives the dollar an advantage. It will be interesting to see if the Euro will be any more successfull in the ne mellineum to come as was Esperanto.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:33 - ID#286230)
Back to the Lamps
fiveliter: I think the ventilation issue also includes the need to restore the oxygen that the Aladdin lamps burn as well as the thorium matter. I recall back in the 40's and early 50's that people were dying because of the lack of oxygen that resulted from stoves, fireplaces and the like using up the oxygen and filling the rooms/houses with CO as they went out. Now that we have better insulation this is a greater problem I assume. Still would like to know the amount of heat they produce. I looks like all models are similar with the cost varying with the price of the shades.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:43 - ID#434108)
(imho:) world domination globalists agenda - careening ever closer to Big Brother's Global Bank
the following excerpt is from the highly respected
AIC Investment Bulletin, AIC Investment Advisors, Inc.,
Great Barrington, MA, USA ( )

from 9/21/98 issue of 'Bulletin':

"...It is in Asia that world banking interests have yet to tame
the national aspirations of diverse nations. The
central banks of Japan, China, Indonesia and other Asian
nations show a monetary and financial independence that is
unacceptable to international banking interests. Such inde-
pendence allows them to pursue monetary policy ( ing )
their national interests above the profit interests of
world banking interests. Consequently, Mr. George Soros
( made his recent ) plea to the ( U.S. Congress ) House Banking
Committee to establish a World Central Bank that would be
lender of the last resort to all. The purpose of the bank
woulbe to CREATE a special type of money, known by the
familiar name, Special Drawing Rights ( SDRs ) .
Special Drawing Rights would be created by the newly established
world central bank and, in the words of Mr. Soros - "used to
guarantee the rollover of the already existing debt of
countries that receive the IMF's seal of approval."


( imho: These are the same bureaucrats that have helped
implode & impoverish the economies of Asia & elsewhere,
with their extorionist IMF policies of exorbitant interest
rates, imposed auterity & forced exporting. )

( AIC Bulletin, 9/21/98 issue continues/concludes: )

"...Once control of the world's money is secure, those in charge
may attempt to impact and control the social and economic
conditions of all nations through changes in interest rates,
economic growth rates and money supply growth. Through these
types of controls and the ability to ''create money'' by
fiat, the bureaucrats will simply extract from the "haves" and provide to the "have-nots" whatever portion of world purchasing power
that they believe is appropriate.

"...In the long run, stablishing another super lending agency
that will create fiat money ( SDRs ) and lend it to bankrupt
nations will only succeed for a short while. But, a short
while is all the banking interests and large international
speculators are hoping for; ( for ) this group wishes to bail out
whole, before a worldwide collapse of fiat currencies begins.
It is for this latter reason that we have long and steadfastly recommended that each of you hold a portion of your assets
in gold and gold-related assets."

( Excerpt above, is from AIC Investment Bulletin, 9/21/98 issue;
AIC Investment Advisors, Inc. 30 Stockbridege Road,
Great Barrington, Massachusetts 01230 )

Also, below is url to recent media coverage of Asia taking
another step toward allowing themselves to be
dominated by world banking interests ( imho ) .
( ( Spread the word; yours truely, ) )
's ste

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:53 - ID#284255)
Feds May Halt Code Fixes, Set Y2K Backup Plans
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S.A., 1998 OCT 23 ( NB ) -- By Christopher J Dorobek, Government Computer News. With roughly 14 months left to prepare systems for 2000, some federal agencies are beginning to think about what was once unthinkable: setting a cutoff for date code work, whether or not systems are fixed.

Snipped from the web
I haven't been able to nail down the level of detail that you ( and I )
would think could be stated forthright and without equivocation.
However, TOP MANAGEMENT of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan -- a client
I did some 10 months ( Nov 97-Aug 98 ) of Y2K PC/LAN work for -- went to
Detroit Edison TOP MANAGEMENT ( JUNE 1998!! ) to get face-to-face answers,
they were bewildered by the non-response response offered. NO ASSURANCES
The power grid ( functionality ) is not as anyone might "imagine" it to be!
The reason it "ISN'T that simple," is that the infrastructure ( you name
it: power, trains, aircraft, ships, et al ) has gone high-tech
( computerized ) , full steam, since the early seventies. Electronics are
very robust -- except for the flaws in program code ( i.e., date computations ) . 8- )
The substations in the field are stand alone, computerized switches with
no manual overrides. Cost cutting is a factor, too!
Case in point: ALL of the manual switches for the US national train
system -- removal completed some 3 years ago -- are stored in a warehouse
in New York state.
The EPA has mandated manual overrides for gasoline in-ground tanks ( at gas
stations ) into extinction.
It's a fine mess, Rich. That's all there is to it.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:53 - ID#412172)
Trade deficit chart
How much has it changed since the dollars fall?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 10:55 - ID#412172)
Hmmmm, thought I hit PREVIEW
In previous post, not that "non-monetary" gold is a big export. At least someone still likes it:- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:01 - ID#266105)

COMPANIES: Another week dominated by gold quarterlies.

Tuesday: Infiniti Technologies maiden annual results,
Durban Roodepoort Deep quarterlies.

Thursday: Randgold and Randgold Resources quarterlies,

Harmony story:

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:04 - ID#343259)
KWH as universal currency
Buckminster Fuller at one time, mused on an "engineer's" unit of power...the Killowatt hour, as a potentially useful unit of international currency. Since it is based on something ( The ability to do a fixed amount of work in a fixed amount of time ) it has a commonly defined and commonly understood value. Since existing commodities like oil and gas are are convertible to their KWH equivalent, and since capitial structures necessary to create, deploy and operate solar panel equivalents can be converted to their amortizable KWH equivalents, might not the KWH provide *part* of a role of currency.. a unit of measurement? At least that would be a start, as it would based the unit of measurement on a useful commodity equivalent, rather than on paper and ink with funny designs.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:15 - ID#412172)
not=note in my second post today, let see
if I can get this one right! And on that note, does anyone have any prognostications for the equity markets, including gold shares next week?
So many indexes and individual stocks are up against their 200 DMA's that this could be quite a week, but which way??
I printed out the NY Post article on the Euro, this will be our fireworks next year in the metals and has likely been our bridle the last 18 months or so.
Some B@#$%rd at work ( no doubt a YHOO buying Gen-X'er ( grin ) , hope he gets educated ) lifted my copy of "The Clash of Civilizations and The New World Order" so now I am off to order a new copy from Amazon and then to study my charts. Maybe I'll look at Amazons chart and ask myself ( AGAIN! ) why I did not buy that one when I was so happy to order books from them a 1000% or so ago! Such a stock player I am.....the market can be like getting keelhauled to scratch your back!

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:31 - ID#43349)
Euro fiscal policy?
One thing that makes a currency work is the ability to couple monetary policy and fiscal policy. Let's see them make this one fly:

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:38 - ID#43349)
The eye of the storm is much like the time before the storm. Equities will tend rise, gold will tend to fall. Bulls will begin to emerge, dipsters will come out to play, and the world of paper will begin to look rosy again.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:55 - ID#266105)

Excellent links to articles here on Kitco, as usual.

They say every debt is eventually repaid, if not by
the debtor then by the creditor.

It don't add up.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 11:59 - ID#280214)
CompGeek@11:04 re: KWH as currency unit
Good idea - energy and food ( which is also energy ) are universally needed and could be units of exchange. As long as we deal in cyberunits then KWH is a good unit. But how, pray tell, do we package some KWH up to physically trade with someone like we can do with Gold? Battery technology is primitive at best - it leaks KWH and is bulky. Coins made of Uranium or Thorium would be conveniently sized but are destructive to one's hide if kept in one's pocket. Maybe we can devise a small package to store a few milligrams of antimatter.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 12:40 - ID#290456)
Yvan Auger XAU Elliott Wave update
He's not much help this week.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 12:45 - ID#341225)
Gollum @ You deserve a bone,you ole "News Hound" re your 10:12 post!
Great find!!....Would enjoy a "think tank discussion" on the Euro today ( ? ) ...i.e. How would this affect the price of gold?,price of oil?,
strong $ or weak$ ?, high interest or low interest rates?, how will this affect the flow of money?,or anything along that line ( sorry, to no offence to anybody,but not how it might effect the $ of bullets )

Let's make this a great day of thinking!!

Required reading :Gollum's 10:12 we are all talking about the same thing..

Gollum..? would you please take the honor to start this "brainstorming"
and tell us what is going on in that great mind of your's

Let's hear your thoughts...Chicken man..

(Sun Oct 25 1998 12:47 - ID#119358)
@I run wildly from the complacency lodged within the eye of the storm.......
toward the hurling turmoil of the rim of chaos. Mine is not to wait. I am militant in belief...there is need of fight, sweat, fear, the risked injury...the thrust of firey hate of all that the paper queers have fraudulently dispensed.
The storm is the result of their devious device....yet I gain ground with swift steps securely weighted by gold. I know all that is theirs will blow away and I will not turn my head to glance at their ruin. I am sure of what happened.
The chewing of an ear.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 12:47 - ID#290202)
To Be oR nOt To Be?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 12:50 - ID#206235)
Gold Numismatic market strong
Coin Dealer Newsletter news. AS Robnoel keeps pointing out, and as he and I tried to convey many times over a year ago...Numismatic Gold continues to show how it can rise in strong sustained price gains, as bullion languishes.

The Market in Depth



Most dealers in attendance at the Long Beach Expo said that generic Gold was extremely active and in demand on the bourse. They claim that there is a shortage of nice, reasonably priced Gold coins on the market. This was very evident at the Long Beach Expo held Sept 24-27. Generic Gold coins of all denominations were in demand. However, the strongest interest was for $5 through $20 Gold. Dealers look to the Expo as a vehicle for buying rare coins. They want to find coins that are interesting. These coins may have that extra pizzazz or eye appeal that collectors are demanding. They are also the coins that have some degree of scarcity. We understand that a large group of approximately 100 common date, certified MS64 $20 Saint-Gaudens traded hands at Long Beach. The purchase price was $675 per coin. Silver Commemoratives were also strong at the Expo. Dealers were buying Choice and better Commems for their customers as well as their inventory. They believe that many Commems are still trading at levels that add up to excellent value. Rare date Silver and Gold coins were also in demand at the Show. New Orleans and Carson City Mint Morgan Dollars brought strong money.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:03 - ID#295111)
@Chicken man, @Gollum Re:10:12 post, EURO, & Gold Sale/Leasing
I just read Gollum's 10:12 feeder.

If the Euro tanks, it's great for the POG.
If the US$ tanks because of a strong Euro, it's great for the POG.

Worst case sceanrio is a status quo.

However, I've now been told that the EMU will now allow member countries to sell some of their gold BUT only under authority of the ECB so as to keep the POG stable in a narrow price range.

This a somewhat different than restricting sales of gold from member countries.

Really, I think what the EMU allows member countries to do with their excess gold is very significant.

Rumor has it a major announcement of gold sales/leasing in Europe will be restricted will be made end of November.

Let's wait and see.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:04 - ID#31876)
You are correct about those numismatic coins, and it's not
just the gold ones. From what I'm seeing, high grade Morgans
are up about 15% over the past year. ( Makes me glad that I
bought an 1879 CC GSA when it became available last year. )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:12 - ID#347457)
@Sarefin on a cutoff for Y2K work in federal agencies
Sharefin, this is a touchy issue in federal agencies, as federal government is not well posed ( or experienced ) to deal with the execution of contingency planning. Most of the government IT programs work on a contingence of "if it slips, what the heck, it'll be in place when it's ready", and most of the project are delivered past the original deadline.
Well, the Y2K is different - the deadline is not movable. Contingency planning, in pure sense, is suppose to deal with issues which are out of your control, e.g., in Y2K arena, failing of infrastructure over which you don't have any control ( e.g., power, communication, external entities, etc, ) . However, out-of-control, means also your project is falling behind ( getting out of control ) . This is where touchy issue comes to play as none of the federal bureaucrats would readily admit that they are "out of control", and the Y2K progress is difficult to measure in the first place.

There are guidelines from GAO and OMB that all mission critical systems must have a contingency plan in place. However, the trigger point is not defined ( which is not surprising when the progress is not easily monitored ) , and the federal managers are reluctant to admit that their projects may be in trouble. Some of them are even ready to go and declare the system as been "not mission critical" to avoid dealing with the issue.

On the other side, it would not be prudent to set a strict deadline of "xxxx/xx/xx" if the project is on schedule, and will be ready after the "cut off date" when the Y2K event horizons will come after the official "cut off date".

However, the execution of contingency plans takes some time and resources, so there is a point where you need to make a determination "I won't be ready on time so I better stop and turn all my resources to execution of my contingency plan ( if there is any in place ) "

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:33 - ID#432136)
Economic Turmoil
I do not believe that any one event is going to take down the current bull market. However, I do believe that a number of different things that are just now beginning to come to light will eventually crater this market. For one, we will be passing through the tail of a comet on Novemeber 17, 1998 which has approximately 150,000 meteors per hour traveling at or near a speed of 46 miles per second. These dust size particles will damage and possibly destroy the numerous satellites currently orbiting the Earth. This will create havoc with communications etc. If that is not enough next year at the same time we will pass through the same comet tail. There goes the next set of satellites. Quite expensive! The second thing is the Y2K problem. I do not believe it will spell the end to civilization, but will just add more confusion to the already delicate systems we have in place. Of course a third is the proliferation of nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union. What better time for a terrorist or country to attack than when the satellites are down? If New York goes there goes our financial district! And all 401K's etc. We live in interesting and distressing times!!! This is just the tip of the iceberg. The American people will probably wake up, but will it be to late????

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:37 - ID#206235)
@ Leland.... Gold, Silver Platinum Numismatics
leland, you are quite correct that Numismatic silver is WAY up and continues strong. I was preaching the virtues of Morgans, Walkers, Mercs., and such here over a year ago, as well as the Saint Gaudens $20.00 pieces. Most on this forum derided me for paying the "premium" over bullion. Yet these coins have appreciated greatly as Gold and silver have fallen!

In the same way, we even had such an opportunity in modern Numismatic Platinum! The American Eagle PROOF coin program, with it's ultra low mintages, was my method of choice for buying into Platinum in the 1997 series. Again, at the time I was derided for paying the big "premium"...Now with Platinum having fallen close to $100.00 an ounce since then...... I see the PROOF coins are up anywhere from 20% to 40% in value ( depending on denomination size ) and even the BULLION Half Ounce coin ( for 1997 only ) saw the same appreciation due to it's very low mintage.

I consider Numismatic considerations an ESSENTIAL part of my overall precious metals investment startegy...for obvious reasons. However, one must be discriminating and do quite a bit of study. There have been huge investor rip-off scams in "investment" grade Numismatics over the years. Coins marked up 500% or more over their real value for example, by unscrupulous boiler room operations posing as legitimate investment houses.

If you know what you're doing, Numismatic coins give you two ways to win rather than being subject to the ( current" deadness in precious metals.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:43 - ID#25490)
Good Morning mate. Spot on with your Eureka call, has everything to do with gold and silver. A little slice of Kiwiana heading your way soon.
The dog from Footrot Flats died a fortnight ago. We were all in mourning briefly.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:47 - ID#341225)
Tantalus Rex @ Thank you for getting this going!
May I..?....Turn your first two statements in the other order...the euro wiil probably tank the $...then gold will tank the euro after they start bickering...liked the story about euro "income tax"...yeah..right.dream on! to gold sales...don't think so...the CB's are going to pledge ( I think 15%..? ) of their gold to the Euro CB then they get so many "paper Euro's"...if they want to expand their money supply...and they will ( politicians!!! ) ...they have to pledge more of their gold...the gold rich countries ( Ger,Fra, It ) will be able to stimulate teir economies while the gold poor countries will be just that!!..POOR...this will be when the Euro fails...and gold will rule...and who will have the gold??
the new world power!!

Just my thoughts...Chicken man....anybody????

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:48 - ID#284255)
Thanks - That's one for Dad
With a memory like that who needs children?

As to "The Dog"
My boy snuck off and had a quiet cry.
A boy and a boy's best friend - a comic.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 13:58 - ID#31876)
You'll get no derision from me. The main point that I've
tried to make on this forum is to be sure that whatever
physical one might have, be sure it is stored in a private,
repeat 'private', facility. Too many use bank safety deposit
boxes. What happened to contents of bank boxes in the 30's
is a hush, hush, subject. I will not repeat myself. Just
be warned.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:01 - ID#29048)
Leonid Meteor shower...a more balanced view?

Russian view:
And on board the Russian space station Mir, cosmonauts will wait out the storm inside the attached Soyuz capsule in case they need to make an emergency escape. The last U.S. astronaut left Mir in June.

American view:
''Our satellites have flown through this disturbance before, and all our technical experts don't see that we have a vulnerability this time,'' says Mark Borota, head of mobile satellite systems for Motorola in Chandler, Ariz.

When the speeding particles smash into solid surfaces such as the side of a spacecraft, they vaporize into a cloud of electrically charged gas or plasma. These plasma clouds around satellites could cause electrical shorts or damage to electronic parts.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:10 - ID#45173)
Hush, hush? You're right, most folks don't know that the US gummit opened up everyone's safe boxes and took their gold. But I don't see any evidence of anyone trying to keep the fact quiet. In retrospect, this kind of confiscation is outrages. However, at the time it seemed reasonable to a lot of people because the circumstances were so dire.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:10 - ID#341225)
Roebear @ What the heck is "nonmonatary gold"????
Read your 10:53...below the chart is some facts...they talk about nonmonatary gold....went to europe..what ever it was!!!

Just a thought...Chicken man..

lefty kiwi
(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:12 - ID#32176)
don't you just love that Brendon Laney
Suggest you invest the $10 in Spieghts and wait for an invite to our next Barbecue
Most of the other guests will be golfers ( defacto Kitcoites ) and of course one goldbug

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:15 - ID#93127)
Carmack: re-10/24/98 Gold,Gold,And The Central Banks

3p Gold Price Comparison

Hopefully, this will provide you with a 'feel' for how tightly the currencies are aligned in the Gold Pricing Parity formula. [If the chart uploads, which is 'iffy' [Well, it uploads, but refuses to open...back to the file-pit.

This chart covers [the chart DID cover] the first six months of 1997.
Current Status?
They are still marching along together; but they have been joined
by the Euro as a PRICING standard. That is to say, that now the currencies align with the 3P-POG in USD and the 3P-POG in Euro.

It is, as we goldbugs say, getting interesting. Very interesting.

Everything is being switched to dB, so sharing should become more
efficient, to say nothing of more constructive. Working on it, folks! {:- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:22 - ID#25490)
Deal, Neil.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:23 - ID#31876)
I'm glad that you chimed in on the confiscation that happened
during the 30's. But, it wasn't just the gold that people
had stashed in their bank 'safety' deposit boxes. Let's say
that you had $100,000 in rolls of $20 bills in a bank box.
When the bank closed, there was no way to get to this money.
Then, when the bank did re-open, you finally went to the
bank to take some money out. In the 'safety' box was only
a receipt. It might have said $5,000 had been removed by
the Feds.
I cannot prove this did happen. That it did happen, I have
friends ( no longer here ) who I believe.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:32 - ID#25490)
chicken man
Yes, interesting phrase "non-monetary" gold. First of all it asserts there is such a thing as "monetary" gold. ( although most of us would say that phrase is repetitious and therefore redundant ) and secondly that non-monetary gold exports have increased.

My first inclination was gold for Jewellery in the factories of Italy has increased. But perhaps gold that is a collateral for a loan is also non-monetary. Perhaps also Gold delivered by exercise of options is also non-monetary. It'd be interesting to find out what others think about this"non-monetary" gold

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:35 - ID#412172)
Gollum, Chickenman
The eye of the storm it is no doubt. A look at the charts says XAU going down unless it can regain 70-71 support Monday. Equity indices are due for a pullback, doubt if it will go past 8200-8300 at which area I may load for a short term rally. Gotta make some metals money somehow. ALso the XOI looks like it will falter, possibly to 410 area. If not then something is definitely up with oil, something which we mere mortals cannot see in the oil prices/rig rates etc. Bargains abound in the oil patch on any pullback and if there is a pullback I will be there. Same could be said for metals. This is obviously just my opinion and not something to trade on.
Chicken man, as for non monetary gold, I assume it is non numistatic, probably the produce of USA gold mines sold on the international market as last time I checked the US was the number three gold exporter in the world.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:45 - ID#412172)
Leland and safety
In other words buy your own safe or better yet make and conceal it well yourself. The Feds have a lot of experience safe finding and cracking. Like a bloodhound to the scent they are good at sniffing out the bucks.
Conceal and secure it with alarms to a pager to you and perhaps a friend if you go out of town. One should be prepared for thieves big and small.
Speaking of which, I'm going out for the day, don't anyone get any ideas; the security is, alas, greater than the treasure ( grin ) !

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:49 - ID#93127)
Chicken man--nonmonetary v monetary--as defined by EU
Monetary gold ( F.11 )

5.26. Definition: The sub-category monetary gold ( F.11 ) consists of all transactions in monetary gold ( AF.11 ) that is gold held as a component of foreign reserves by monetary authorities or by others who are subject to the effective control of the authorities.ion of
exchange stabilization funds.

5.28. Monetary gold normally takes the form of bars with a purity of at least 995/1000.
5.29. Transactions in monetary gold consist predominantly of sales and purchases of monetary gold among monetary authorities. Purchases of monetary gold are recorded in the financial accounts of the domestic monetary authorities as increases in financial assets. The counterpart entries are decreases in financial assets of the rest of the world.

5.30. Transactions in non-monetary gold, that is in gold other than monetary gold, are treated as acquisitions less disposals of valuables ( if the sole purpose is to provide a store of wealth ) and otherwise as final or intermediate consumption and/or change in inventories. Transactions in non-monetary gold include transactions by the monetary authorities in gold that is not a component of their foreign reserves.

5.31. If monetary authorities add non-monetary gold to their holdings of monetary gold or release monetary gold from their holdings for non-monetary purposes, they are deemed to have monetized or demonetized gold, respectively.

Monetization or demonetization of gold does not give rise to entries in the financial accounts; instead, the change in balance sheet positions is accounted for by entries in the other changes in the volume of assets account as a reclassification, i.e. the reclassification of gold as valuables ( AN.13 ) to monetary gold ( AF.11 ) ( see paragraph 6.32 ) .

Demonetization of gold is recorded symmetrically.
5.32. Deposits, securities and loans denominated in gold are treated as financial assets other than monetary gold and are classified along with similar financial assets in foreign currency in the appropriate category.

Non-monetary gold swaps, that is arrangements involving the temporary exchange of non-monetary gold for deposits, are treated as collateralized loans ( see paragraph 5.81. e ) .

More than you wanted to know, right? {:- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 14:51 - ID#254288)
M1's definition: money that can be spent immediately "like in a New York Minute"

plus a percentage of that portion of M2 money in Money Market Mutual Funds ( MMMF ) should be used to set the gold price.

A percentage of ( MMMF money ) from M2 is fair, as some is tied up in self directed retirement plans, but credit card purchases create instant money for a merchant to use and it should be also factored into the immediate money supply.

Taking consideration of these two items I think it is fair to add $300 billion to the $1063 billion in M1.

This would put a value of $5,200 per oz for each of the 262,000,000 ounces the US is supposed to have, when considering full convertiblity and backing.

Au Prices at different % of convertability & backing C&B At 15% C&B - $780 per oz,
At 25% C&B - $1300 per oz
At 40% C&B - $2080 per oz

The boys in DC won't go for any of this because they would lose control over the sorry situation the US is in.

Gold Dancer
(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:03 - ID#377196)
Confusing times
These are confusing times.....the news is all over the place
whether it is about the market, gold, or the Euro. I don't pretend
to know why something is going to happen or whether the Euro is dead
or alive. I don't think it matters.

Debts are debts. Period. The stock market is at all time high
valuations. Gold is $60 an oz in 1970 dollars. Commodities are at
record lows and foreign nations can't pay their debts because of this.

Unless commodity prices rise the IMF will need several trillion
to bail out everyone. This is not going to happen.

GOlD stocks are wiped out. SA and Junior golds are being given
away for "free".

When ever there are "great bargins" out there, the press is always
trying to keep you from buying them or holding on to them. This has been
the case in every bear market I have seen for 30 years. It is no
different now.

The ONLY way to beat this game is to have a longer time frame than
most people. Just buy the gold and hold, for however many years necessary
until you would not sell if your life depended on it. The situation
will entirely change some years down the line and gold stocks will be
like the Emerging Country stocks of yesterday. Or the internet stocks
of today. Or any of the computer areas.
These areas represent a state of mind only. A state of mind that
believes that value is virtual. When reality strikes, this euphoria
will turn to the biggest fear/reawakening ever witnessed.

Go for the gold early and reap the rewards later. This is going to be
the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of man because it will
happen over a shorter period of time than the "tech world" transfer.

I say 3 to 5 years. One of the problems being on the internet so
often is that we expect things to happen right now. A month seems like
a year. You know what I mean.

Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:15 - ID#377196)
Liked your post. But I think that to markets are bigger than
the Feds. Fear will overtake the best of plans of polititians.

If one really looks at the Fed I think we can see that they
have followed interest rates down. They did not move them down.

When enough people buy the only real money the gold market will
move up no matter what Greenspam does.

But they still love the high tech area. They just can't see that
this area is contracting. It is yesterday. Margins are getting smaller.

Commodities are next to go up, this year or next.

GOld can easiy go to $1200 but it will take a few years to get there.

Patience. I tell myself, Patience.

Thanks, GD

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:17 - ID#31876)
The coin shop that I use has rental safes. The facility was
built with three times the normal rebar to make it safe.

Then, here comes the police, who suspect that that some stolen
jewelery is stored in some of the boxes. They cut locks, open

Storage is a difficult question.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:32 - ID#341225)
SDRer @ everything has an "official" definition!!
Loved it!!!....brings out a chuckle ( don't think it's the vino!!! ) ....good definition ( how did you find that gem? ) question...why did it go to Europe?????

Just a thought...Chicken man....

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:32 - ID#316200)
A Quote
"Get Gold, humanely if possible, but
at all hazards get gold."

Ferdinand V.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:38 - ID#343259)
@Squirrel re KWH
Bucky Fuller envisioned a worldwide grid connecting USA through Alaska through USSR. He was awaiting the low-loss materials which would make greater-than-1500-mile-power-transmission feasible. His concept: that power can be generated everywhere, put onto the grid, and taken off anywhere else, and that settlements could be made accordingly. He also envisioned a proper functioning stock market ( free from manipulation har har ) .

My point was not that we utilize the KWH as currency, per se, but that we explore the possibility of using it to satisfy the *Unit of Measurement of value" requirement of currency. Right now, as I read and learn here, the SDR, based on some number of grains of gold carried to many decimal points is the Unit of Account ( ? ) . If it were the KWH, then all things would be reduced to their abilty to do work.

For me in Southern Nevada, with a KWH rate of USD .035/KWH, and gold at 292.30, that would equate to my 1 oz of gold being worth 8,351 KWH. My friend, living in Vermont, paying .16/KWH, however would find his ounce of gold only worth 1,827 KWH.

I'm not sure where all this is leading, but it's all Dabchick's fault for getting me to look at the price of gold without the currency filter :- ) .

( Thanks Dabchick ) .

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:45 - ID#340262)
Here is another interesting perspective on who might be next to be drawn into the whirlpool - cjk -

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:46 - ID#237299)
Aurator: about your 4:37

I just logged on and noticed few had responded to your question of Eureka.

Well of course, he discovered mass displacement...something to do with measuring the purity of the King's gold...but all that is rather incidental to the shout of "Eureka"; what he had actually discovered was the combination of the lever, the screw, and mass displacement in *combination*- and he saw that 2000 years hence one could have a great deal of short term fun by using leverage to screw the investors out of a great deal of money while letting the mass displacement of gold sink forcing equity prices to rise.

A stoke of genius by anyone's standards. When the king heard of the idea his eyes glazed over in rapture. He appointed some of the same boys that came up with that great rolling horse idea to carry it forward in time.

I believe all this is documented in some rather obscure book. I forget the name...something like Leystikoteron

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:47 - ID#25490)
You will recall that Bucky Fuller's Grid would enable mass efficiencies by being able to move 'tricity round this sweet gold world. Those parts that were in sunshine could "export" their tricity to those without. So tricity would move with the spinning planet. I understood that the low-loss materials were already in existence? NZ being over 1500 miles from Stralia, and the furtherest "mainland" away from a landmass would miss out on his Grid.

Always like his Dymaxion map and have only seen lousy reproductions on the web. The Dymaxion map shows graphically the closeness of all of us to others. The land masses of this earth are really just one massive island surrounded by a sea that occupies 2/3 of the planet..

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:49 - ID#290172)
Chicken MAn--Tis what they "DO" in Brussels...
Spew out reams upon untold reams ( or 'beams' nowadays ) , all there for all to read.
The caveat being: who can find it in the black hole that is Brussels verbiage? {:- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:49 - ID#290172)
Chicken MAn--Tis what they "DO" in Brussels...
Spew out reams upon untold reams ( or 'beams' nowadays ) , all there for all to read.
The caveat being: who can find it in the black hole that is Brussels verbiage? {:- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:49 - ID#370218)
As we notice the "value" of the currencies of the major Euro participants relative to gold and the US$ we are astounded at the view...NOT.

See, is already as one. What can this mean? Wait until 15% equals 100%. Wait for what has happened to Japan to happen to all except those counties that can settle their international accounts in real All fiat based money will not settle the is as paying an IOU with a promise to pay...DAH.

We watch this old gold market together...catch the new one before it is clear that AG is not GOD and cannot make gold from paper. AG already knows...has he plans for gold before he retires...who knows. We wait and watch.


(Sun Oct 25 1998 15:59 - ID#25490)
Let imagination soar like Gold~en Eagles......... ~~ ~`~ ~~ ~~
Now that's what I call a better story than the truth.

I asked about the origin of the utterance Eureka at

sharefin's answer wins one prize, yes indoody..
almost identical to my source

but, as Obisidian has pointed out, there is another prize being offered..

Entries should be posted hereabouts.. Judgement shall be after Yum Char in about 6 hours..

Who's gonna step forward for a chance at Judgement ?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:00 - ID#290172)
OOPS! Startle response (wasp attack)
{:- ( (

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:01 - ID#254288)
Gold Dancer

I find it difficult to comprehend how the world monetary elites have managed to put a damper on a fair price for gold and still blow their respective horns to a tune of "The Free Market".

Also the alluded price probabilities do not intend that "other prices" go up materially along with gold, but riseor fall only by real market forces.

Politicians controlled by the monetary elites like to use the gold price as a gage for inflation, to demonize it so that they may continue the raping of countries.

These people couldn't survive if the citizen had control of his own destiny.

There will always be problems, but who needs politicians controled by bankers to solve them; their cut has already proven excessive to most of the world.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:13 - ID#247428)
Gold Dancer Confusing times
Thank You for lifting my spirits and making me feel good again ( grin ) . You said something very important, the internet makes time feel like it is going by real fast. It has only been six to eight months of me being a gold bug and it feels like a lifetime already. Keep trooping and thanks again for the uplift.

Kind Regards

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:19 - ID#35757)
How did you determine/link to a specific post ( re Eureka ) ?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:20 - ID#45173)
Decision time soon
When the dollar price of gold rises, that means that the buying power of the dollar is falling ( inflation ) . When the dollar price of gold falls, that means that the buying power of the dollar is rising ( deflation ) . In the latter case I'm better off with cash than gold, in the former, gold than cash.

The price of gold in dollars is flat because the market is divided on the prospects of deflation or inflation. Once a clear trend is perceived by the market, gold will move quickly in one direction or the other. There may be only a brief window of time in which to act.

My current thinking is that if gold drops under $270 in a week to two week period, I'll dump my gold for cash; if it rises past $320, I buy up gold with cash.

My inclination is the there are simply too many paper instruments floating around that can be sold for cash dollars, specifically US Treasuries, to permit deflation.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:28 - ID#25490)
1 Go to short text mode
2 Identify the post you wish to view.
3 Click on "x" more words ( blue letters ) this will expand the post to fit in your browser window.
4 Copy All the contents of the "Location" field
5 Paste into Message box when you add a comment to kitco.

Mr. Mick
(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:31 - ID#345321)
Recent news................
Sunday October 25, 3:08 pm Eastern Time
Dayton Mining in default on debt
NEW YORK, Oct 25 ( Reuters ) - Dayton Mining Corp. said late Friday that it is in default of a loan agreement.

The company said that it has been discussing restructuring or refinancing its bank debt with its banking syndicate and other lenders.

It said that defaults were previously waived by the lenders through October 19, 1998 but an extension has not, to this date, been granted.

As a result, the company is technically in default under the existing loan agreement, it said.

Dayton said that it will be meeting the syndicate members and other lenders in the coming week to discuss an extension of the waiver and the restructuring or refinancing.

There is currently US$17.9 million outstanding on the loan, of which US$12.9 million is cash collateralized.

US$5 million is not cash collateralized. The lenders are secured by the Andacollo Gold Mine, Dayton said.

Dayton Mining holds a 100 percent interest in the Andacollo Gold Mine located in central Chile.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:31 - ID#237299)
Leland and EJ @ the gold heist

They abrogated the gold bonds at that time as well. If you were promised to be paid in gold, they called them due, denied you the interest of the full maturity, paid you in paper and then raised the price of gold. I hope they at least got a kiss before being asked to bend over.

There are many cases fought on this confiscation:

Also Perry v United States. He argued that they took a 10,000 bond, paid him in paper, and that to compensate him fairly they should really give him 16,000+ pieces of paper, as that is what his gold would have bought had they been gracious enough to honor their little agreement.

I tried to wade through these argument, but there are so many judgements, reversals, appeals, latin, precedent and other legal obfuscation, that I grew dizzy.

The government has shown that is stands ready to repudiate bonds whenever it is expedient to do. 60 years has done a good job of inducing general anmesia.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:33 - ID#45173)
Gollum: someone's ripping off your material
Bay Street Beat: Eye of the storm or Indian Summer?

TORONTO, Oct 24 ( Reuters ) - The months-long tumult in the equity markets died down last week and the renewed calm has left many strategists wondering whether this is the eye of a hurricane or the onset of Indian Summer.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:38 - ID#45173)
Not a lot of happy news on Rueters this evening
Outlook for South Korea job market grim

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:40 - ID#45173)
Financial execs see risk of U.S. recession
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Interest rate cuts did not do enough to boost the
U.S. economy and more than one-third of corporate financial officers
expect a 50 percent or higher chance that there will be a recession in the next year or year and a half.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:41 - ID#25490)
scurrilous rumour/not a grain of truth in't/You can't believe all you read in the papers.
I used to think that lots of journalists were using kitco as a source of information and inspiration. There have been many times when a phrase, an idea, a metaphor has been used here at kitco and is then picked up as the "hook" in an article or column in a large circulation daily paper.

I've actually purposely misquoted here to test this theory, it works!

Devil within.....

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:42 - ID#343259)
@aurator re Fuller Dymaxion map
I have a small postcard of it here, but a full-sized nice print was available from the Buckmininster Fuller Institute on La Cienega Blvd in Los Angeles IIRC. I don't know if they are even still around, but perhaps someone has a link.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:42 - ID#45173)
Wobbly world economy seen facing uphill struggle
WASHINGTON, Oct 25 ( Reuters ) - There's nothing like an emergency
cut in U.S. interest rates to inject some much-needed confidence into the
ailing world economy. Or so it may seem.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:45 - ID#45173)
Cool. Can you give me an example?

Gotta run for now. Beers at Bukowski's. I'll be back.


(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:48 - ID#25490)
The tyranny of Mercator's Projection
I had an opportunity to buy a Dymaxian map a few years ago and have been regretting not doing so ever since. I was looking for one on line, I think the best way to represent Fuller's Dymaxion map online would be as a short fly-by video.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:48 - ID#254288)

Been reading about lawsuits concerning second hand smoke and wonder if Arafat has a case with the second hand cigar.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:51 - ID#237299)
Arafat? Monica has the stronger claim. I wonder if case studies have been done.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 16:52 - ID#25490)
Proprietary information at the moment, sorry.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 17:24 - ID#254288)

Assuming it never left the Oval Office, it could have Auction value and pay legal expenses.
It may also have Brand Name possibilities, bet some foreign tobacco company would pay a fortune.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 17:36 - ID#254288)

News release at SI's GPM indicates that 100 tons of gold lies sunken off India's coast.
Will someone please tell MA of PEI to publish this in his next obfuscation.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 18:44 - ID#219363)
Went to visit a friend this weekend, one of my best buds. Talked about this and that, usual stuff, and the discussion came around to the markets. He said he'd lost about 8K$US ( a lot for him ) and he asked me how I'd made it through, and I told him I'd sold out of equities in June, and that I'd been making money on the down-side since then. And so, he started asking a lot of questions like what I thought was going to happen in the near term. Told him I didn't see a lot of good on the horizon, that's why I had sold out. He said, and I cringe as I write it, "I'm in in for the long haul", no joke, he said exactly that. I just gave him a nod and dropped it. Later he brought it up again and started asking what I thought they should do, I told him I thought they should learn more about the markets and make their own decision. After being pressed, I finally fessed up and told him that I thought there could be a lot of down-side from here, and that if I were still holding equities, I wouldn't be holding them come Monday afternoon. Told him that I had bets out on a crash and explained how I was playing it, but that I didn't honestly believe it would happen, that it was just a gamble on the possibility that it could happen. Anyway, in the end, I think they planned to stay the course and hold equities for the "long haul", to each his or her own. The thing that made up their minds, I believe, is when I told them that if the markets crashed, they would probably lose half of their money - for some weird reason, that seemed to comfort them, they seemed to be okay with losing half of their investment in the equities markets *shrug*. So there you have it direct from Mr. and Mrs. regular investor, if they are typical, then the equities could stay up their until the cows finally come home.

Chicken man
(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:03 - ID#341297)
Envy @ Friends
You must have been talking to my neighbor across the street...long would like to tell them I don't think they are going to live that long!!!...they are in their 50's

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:04 - ID#218252)
ENVY; I can't tell you how many times I've had that same type of discussion
with people over the last couple of months. The latest came Thursday afternoon, when after being told that they were being given a gift with this latest rally, they too were in for the long haul. I told them ( Friends ) that I was getting tired of telling people this and being told that there was no other place for their money. The bubble is ripe to be pricked. Did anyone see the movie A Perfect Murder last night. Interesting how what is happening in that movie is exactly what is happening now on a global scale.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:11 - ID#412286)
I have heard the same. The reason they shrug now is that there are no headlines to reflect a dropping market. When this happens it is alot harder to shrug then when just given a number. When THEY THINK it wont come back because of the headlines the story would change. If they are pressing you for your short term opinion then my guess is they aint really what they say they are IMVHO. Ask the Japanese who invested at 39k 9 years ago, the are still down 67% for the period.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:14 - ID#218252)
We rented that movie last night.
Michael Douglas starred as a hedge fund manager who was leveraged out the wazoo and positions were going aganist him badly. Chernobyl, I believe was the term one of his guys used early in the movie to describe how badly a position had turned aganist them.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:15 - ID#347457)
@envy (friends)
Envy, what I will say will probably bring a lot of "punishment" from the rest of Kitcoits. So what if somebody decides that loosing half of their investment is OK. Define the long term. If it is 10-20 years horizon, I believe that despite all of the bad thing which are coming our way, they'll do OK. Remember that many of gold bugs lost that much in much shorter time and are still waiting to recover that money. Some people are not comfortable to change their way of investing. Be it gold bugs or equity investors. If you are not a short time investor, you may stick with your current approach and in the long run you will be OK. Is it prudent? Probably not, because you make much more money going out/in into sectors which are hot at the time. However, from the long term point of view, all investment vehicles would probably return the same profit ( as a matter of fact, equities more than the gold )

Your comment:

"The thing that made up their minds, I believe, is when I told them that if the markets crashed, they would probably lose half of their money - for some weird reason, that seemed to comfort them, they seemed to be okay with losing half of their investment in the equities markets *shrug*. So there you have it direct from Mr. and Mrs. regular investor, if they are typical, then the equities could stay up their until the cows finally come home."

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:19 - ID#350145)
Envy et al - i guess i don't get it?
i can see where there should be a recession next year with stock valuations returning to more normal levels. I have heard 5500 is where they should be. but i don't see 1929. if anything i think the future looks pretty bright economically. my biggest concern is 1 ) russia's nukes ( short term ) ; 2 ) overpopulation, 3 ) disease and 4 ) ozone depletion. so someone - what is this 1929 stuff. convince me and i will short the mkt. i know how to do that.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:25 - ID#35757)

(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:38 - ID#219363)
General Followup
Wanted to emphasis that I didn't, and would never, make a case for a crash in the current market to a friend. My friend wants to stay in equities, that's great with me, much better than listening to any advice that I could give, and I would never give it in the first place. I would rather him lose money doing what's in his heart, than make money listening to me - reason is, if I'm wrong, it would hurt me very much for him to miss out on up-side profits because I gave him advice and it turned out to be way off. As far as a crash goes - who the hell knows what's going to happen. I've got bets out on a crash NOT because I think one will happen, but because if one were going to happen, now seems like a good time. I have no knowledge of a coming '29, '87, etc, but the chart pattern sure looks promising right now. Nobody knows what's going to happen, we're all just putting our money on dots and spinning the wheel. Some do research, some read opinions, some bet on their own companies, some even bet on goldish colored metals from the dawn of time, but we're all playing the odds one way or another. Best of luck to us all, but we won't all win.


(Sun Oct 25 1998 19:55 - ID#347457)
@Envy -good for you ;-)
Envy, you said

Good for you, we have too many posters on this site who know exactly what will happen in equity markets, gold, Y2K, etc.
OK, don't beat me up, express your opinion, we all can learn from diverse opinion. Just don't say, "I know this will happen " ;- )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:00 - ID#317193)
A quiet night...a point of order...
Sorry to post off-subject but did you know you can have a food fight with yourself and post under multiple monikers so you can always be right in your predictions?

Tis true...Indeedy...Ooooo


(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:00 - ID#350145)
Envy - i didn't mean to be abrasive or single you out
i only meant my comments as dialogue and should have directed them to everyone. lots of 29 talk here that i think may be half a bubble off. i agree that if ever there was a time for chaos it is now. japan. china, asia, russia, etc, hedge funds, etc. i just feel if we are going to learn from each other we should all feel free to voice our comments. how often do we hear someone say: i know i am going to be slammed for this opinion. and it is usually someone who thinks differently e.g. someone who thinks we actually landed on the moon ( not directed at you ) . i think we landed on the moon. as someone once said extraordinary claims should require extraordinary evidence. on the positive side of the financial argument: worldwide low interest rates, commodities, inflation, more sophisticated technology, econometrics, governments, more transparency. we live in interesting times.

Tom Young
(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:02 - ID#317196) can fight with yourself????

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:05 - ID#200235)

The smart money is betting on a big correction. The DJIA has been propped up for the last l0 days by the huge investors, ie the Mutual Funds, The Banks who own certain equities, the Insurance companies who also own certain equities, the Hedqe funds who own crazy options and other large individual investors who have hugh profits in their positions, ie l9.00 for Nations Bank ( now Bank America ) , Gillette at l4.00 and l3.00 Coke. These big players are unloading these overvalued stocks to the little guy who has heard nothing negative about the stock market for the last l0 years. THEY KNOW IF THEY STAY IN LONG ENOUGH........

It has been my unfortunate experience that when the distribution process is at this stage, it is better to not be in the market in any shape form or fashion. Add to this the fine tuning by AG, RR and the central banks of the world on behalf of their cronies or customers or citizens and there is absolutely no reason for anyone to be investing in this market.

Speculation is ok, if you can take the heat and losses.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:09 - ID#147211)
Au H2O Distribution
Excellent. You got that right

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:09 - ID#30126)
Worried about Russian nukes? I find more to worry about in their Bacterial Warfare programs than their nuclear arsenal. If the recent news is true about the Russians genetically altering Ebola and smallpox to engineer a combination virus... Nukes will be a trivial worry.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:15 - ID#434226)
You get education by reading the fine print....
and experience by not reading it.

Tom Young
(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:25 - ID#317196)
Confession is good for the soul...yes?
Now, where are F*, RJ, Jujube and ANOTHER ect. when you need him/her/it/them/never mind. Just a guess.

Tom Young...or get the picture...

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:30 - ID#287279)
From todays New York Post

"...There is a hidden agenda here: They know the euro is unworkable with separate, sovereign countries. So when the inevitable monetary management problems plunge the weaker members into recession or budget disasters, the Eurocrats will propose a political union at financial gunpoint. One that would retain capital by force, with exchange controls.
And what are the politics of this kluged-together superstate? The recent elections have brought socialist parties back into power.
These aren't the tamed social democrats of the '60s or '70s, but anti-American ideologues. They have the power under the Euro treaty to impose exchange controls without unanimous consent of member countries.
That means that the value of our European investments would be reduced by force majeure, and that our access to European capital restricted.
This isn't a paranoid nightmare. It is an explicit hope, for example, of Oskar Lafontaine, the new, left-wing German finance minister.
In the protectionist, conflicted world that would result, both Europeans and Americans would suffer from low growth, restricted choices in investments and goods, and social conflict.
While we would be hit harder at first, due to our dependence on foreign capital, the greater efficiency of our system, and our greater military and political security, would mean we would come out ahead.
But in the meantime, the Eurocrats would have commandeered a lot of power, along with the accompanying prerequisites, and insider deals. At their citizens' and allies' expense."

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:33 - ID#290172)
Reflections in a golden pool...big, deep golden pool {:-)
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community, and in particular Article 235

Article 5
The Fund's operations in the currencies of the Member States shall be expressed in a European monetary unit of account of a value of 0 788867088 grammes of fine gold.

Document delivered on: 27/07/1998
Entered in Europa dB 10-16-98

Very attached to gold, are European central bankers.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:41 - ID#287279)
An iteresting statement from Mr. Timmer, former CEO of Phillips and current Y2K czar of the Dutch Millennium Platform .

"Y2K will cause a temporary disruption of our society as a ***whole***."

"***Most*** business will come to a halt for several months, due to lack of foreign parts ) supplies and/or internal computer malfunctions."

"It remains doubtfull if there will be power available, comes 1-1-00...."

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:50 - ID#206235)
My Y2K preperations
1 ) Keep bank and investment account statements from 12/99

2 ) Accumulate some Gold coins and Gold mining stocks in 1998 at historically low levels

3 ) Wait till 12/99 when the sheep who follow the latest Doom & Gloom scam artists.... who preach that Y2K will destroy currencies and society as we know them, manage to drive the price of Gold up.

4 ) Sell Gold coinsand Gold mining shares the final week of 1999, just before the inevtiable Gold price drop that will occur in early Y2K, as the amateur "Gold investors" realize that

a ) Y2K is not the end of the world as we know it, or currencys and

b ) Gold won't replace currencies, is useless for purchasing goods and services, and has been overhyped as a "response" to the relatively minor economic disruptions of Y2K.

I plan to profit from Y2K in this manner. Chips are starting to go on the table.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:55 - ID#147211)
SDRer your 20:33
Where does the decimal point go? Thanx, Charlie

(Sun Oct 25 1998 20:57 - ID#287279)
Good luck!

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:02 - ID#147211)
Shek your 20:30
I have been leaning toward this view, but you have defined and carried it further than I envisioned. As I have said before, if this thing flies, we are in one helluva shape. In the AF, there was one rule drilled in- "power failure on take off- land straight ahead".. You have posted the warning. Thanx, Charlie

lefty kiwi
(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:04 - ID#32176)
re your strategy
very good and logical....but shouldn,t you just maybe sell a futures contract for your gold instead in the last week of 1999 just in case yk2 is really really bad .
you would probably not need to settle the futures contract and would still have your gold

Gold Dancer
(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:05 - ID#430221)
Your 16.01. I think one of the biggest reasons for the present
situation continuing is the fact that so many make their living on the
current situation.

With gold based money what would all these economists and lawyers
do. Therefore, it is something that becomes a thing in itself. It won't
end voluntarily. The people must decide to make gold money while
they still have money. There is $1.3 trillion in money market funds.
Or something of that nature. If 1/3 of this money went into gold coins
and gold stocks it would bring gold back into a hugh bull market.

Where the people put there money can overwhelm whatever the fed
wants to happen. Just look at the stock market. Who ever thought that
9000 was really attainable 4 years ago?

It goes to show just how much power the media has over the minds of
most people. People like to act in herds. They feel safer that way.
And the survival instinct is just as strong as it used to be. So whenever
an event happens, or a core amount of investors actually invest in
gold mutual funds etc., these assets will move up in value.

It is amazing how long the gold bear market has gone on. Truly
amazing. I would never have believed it possible.

Now I am finding it necessary to remind myself that when things go
on longer that they should have and go higher than they should have
the opposite trade is the best trade. Because it too will last longer
and go far higher than I thought possible. The opposite trade is the
gold trade. Gold stocks will be the next big winners.

But time is necessary. Patience is hard to come by on a daily basis.

I need more of it.

Thanks, GD

Gold Dancer
(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:11 - ID#430221)
What I am saying is that Gold and Gold stocks are the best investment
one could possibly make. The stock market is SO high. The psychology
is such that fear is sure to come to these people. It is only a matter of time. And when it does we will have a new brand of internet

Cheers, GD

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:29 - ID#32078)
MOLE.. you say you don't get it..
Since I invest solely in gold stocks and funds ( now in cash ) , I don't care much about the Dow, but this is an uncomplicated version of what I think is very likely to happen within the next two years.

Most investment advisors you hear in the US look at the Dow in terms of the US domestic market and mention how great we are all doing; unemployment low, interest rates low, high productivity, no war, etc.

However, very little is viewed past our borders, and since about 30% of our economy is directly related to overseas markets, problems there will eventually affect us. The Dow climb to 9000 was accomplished with good trade arrangements and therefore earnings for US companies. This is now slowing, and in terms of Asia, stopping. Gold is low as a direct result of the US dollar doing so well.

If trade continues to slow and our overseas markets diminish, earnings will fall, and eventually stocks will fall. How much is the question, and in my opinion, that depends upon the amount of deterioration in foreign economies, especially South America, which hinges on Brazil. If Brazil holds out and doesn't devaluate, then the rest of S. America will hold up and still trade with us. However, if Brazil continues to lose reserves, and they are low now, then they will devaluate and so will the rest of S. America and there goes another 20% of US trade, similar to how dealing with Asia is now. Trade vessels will go south, empty of US goods.

At that time, the dollar will surge, gold will drop, and we will go through another short cycle like last fall when Indonesia collapsed. The recent IMF aid may prevent this, but the possibility is there. After a short time, the overwhelming trade deficit ( now at record levels ) would be too much to bear, and profits and earnings for many US stocks would wither and stocks would fall. US productivity would decrease, unemployment would increase slightly, interest rates would go up, and a new bear attitude would take over the market as in 1973, and most small investors would be the last to figure it out. Hedge fund problems ( from 20:1 leverage ) or an increase in personal bankruptcies could put more pressure on the banks. About that time, as in 1973, gold would be reborn, and gold stocks and funds would be the place to be.

This scenario does not require a war, oil shortage, impeachment, nuclear attack, ozone depletion, or any other disaster, such as Y2K. Just basic overextended economic forces. Any difficulties with Y2K would magnify the bad parts.

Just a semi-learned opinion.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:31 - ID#219363)
Stock Market Crash Forecaster
Up to +8 from +6, giving the all clear for returning to long positions.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:46 - ID#350145)
i coudn't agree more. i think the real fear is that russia seems to be close to anarchy; with the russian mafia controlling much of the country.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:51 - ID#43352)
Hot dollars

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:52 - ID#25490)
mole/panda/other beasts of the field and birds of the air

Some advice from an old backgammon-playin' friend:*

~~~~Don't Worry~~~~

"Only dogs worry, and we shoot them."

* he's still learning and it's still costing him..

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:53 - ID#43352)
Chinese defaults

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:57 - ID#219363)
I didn't think you were giving me hassle *smile*, you had a point. For me, I don't think we're headed for a '29, maybe a recession, who can say. I don't know anything about all that kind of stuff, I'm just always bullish on my own wallet, and I get into positions that I'm comfortable with. Right now, I like cash ( 92 percent ) , gold ( about 5 percent ) and equity PUT options ( about 3 percent ) . That position feels good to me and lets me sleep at night - a nice, dreamy, comfortable sleep with lots of rapid eye movement. *grin*. I trade on my intuition which has not yet let me down.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 21:59 - ID#350145)
larryn - thanks
i also pretty much just do mining stocks, have for almost 20 years - i pretty much had it figured the way you had it. i just don't think it is very clear. like hitting a lot of pool balls on the table trying to figure out which hole the last one will go into ( lots of variables ) - the fed is tough and smart, i think, and so are the japanese. i wouldn't count either of them out. and if they can hold it together, the next decade could be up for the stock mkt.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:10 - ID#350145)
maybe i will take it all back
after my hopeful comments Gollum pulls out two rightful trumps.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:14 - ID#244418)
Ed Yardeni's latest comment on Y2k
Based on what I've heard today I think public officials are at some
point, probably the middle of next year, going to have to tell the public
that they cannot assure them of the food supply, they cannot assure
them that the lights will be on, they cannot assure them that the phone
system will work, and that they need to make preparations at their
community levels to deal with these issues.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:19 - ID#432148)
To Aurator and all our NZ friends, no workee today! Have a Happy One.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:37 - ID#28994)
The American farmer is going to grow some white beans in 1999,he will harvest them and they will be processed into pork and beans by Campbells, Heinz etc. Now what Ed Yardeni's is saying that come January 2000 or Y2k,the American people are so stupid they will be unable to get a can of those beans to the corner store because of a computer.
Do you believe him?

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:40 - ID#350145)
falling yen
i do think many on this web figured that the yen would start falling again with the increasing need for japanese liquidity. i did not take advantage of that play. there are so many bargins out there in the junior mining stocks i have been like a kid in a candy store. i am 110% in mining stocks ( had to borrow the last 10% from myself ) -too much probably. there are so many plays out there one is hard pressed to know where to go.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:43 - ID#50148)
Sounds like my friend, a certain Alfred E. Nueman, and his favorite saying is.... "What? Me worry?"

( For those of you who don't know who Alfred is, he has his own magazine, Mad Magazine, to be exact.... :- ) )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:56 - ID#252150)
ORO@Your 04:07 makes a lot of sense. Most of us have suspected
that the mkts are rigged & many of us who bet against ridiculously overvalued stocks got burned. After reading the piece on Prechter in Barrons today I was feeling so bearish that I was considering selling short some SPY tomorrow & if it moves against me averaging up. Your post has given me cause to reconsider the futility, not to mention the expense, of placing a bet in a crooked casino.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 22:59 - ID#277224)
Would be curious which juniors in mining ( gold? )
in particular might represent good value???

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:00 - ID#219363)
It's been said here over and over ( and I agree ) that today people invest too much in equities, like they're the only investment vehicle that exists in the markets. About the only thing you hear about on the tee vee is stocks this, bonds that, and not much else except on the commercial breaks. Just look at all this nifty stuff we have to choose from, here's just a few - junk bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, convertible securities, futures, agencies, money markets, mortgage backed securities, options, metals, physical real estate, REITs, FREITs, treasuries ( bills, bonds and notes ) , zeros, UITs, collectibles, currencies, shorts, micro investments ( helping local people buy equipment, etc ) , mutual funds, muni's, starting your own business, etc, etc, etc. So many different investments out there the mind boggles at the options before today's investors. Take all that and multiply it across every country on the face of the earth, and that's a lot of possibility.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:01 - ID#25490)
Golden days of Spring.
Goldbug 23
Thank you, friend, It has been a most relaxing labour day. It's 1700 now. Lunch was with a scant dozen family members. Dinner soon.

I grew up with Alfred E Neuman. Forgot to mention him in my song of favrite merkan things a couple of days ago.

err go geegaws

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:06 - ID#304282)
S&P's 10 points below fair value

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:32 - ID#350145)
@ carmack
i always feel uncomforable recommending a stock. if i knew how much you know about them it would be easier to answer your question. if you are new then i would first say subscribe to the northern miner and stockwatch, and get a good guru ( most are lacking - to be polite ) . just about all the stocks have value - roll backs are the big fear. i like co's .25 to 2.00 that have good expoloration potential. when the mkt is flat you want to do exploration. if the metal moves up then i switch to co's that have reserves. right now the #1 stock the pro's are watching is argentina gold. a couple of small co's i like are canarc- t. ccm .35 can, corner bay- t. bay.25 can , birim t.bgi .26 can.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:34 - ID#43349)
Y2K bullish for PC makers and associated software

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:37 - ID#350145)
down over 300 pts!

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:37 - ID#433172)
Several posters have been recomending buying phisical metals and taking possession. I did this back in 1986-7 in the form of silver coins for about & 7.00 a coin as I recall. I later sold most for $6.00. I just bought a bunch more for $5.35 a coin. I'm very happy about that. Consider the inflation wev'e had since 1987 makes the purchase price maybe $3.00 or so in 1987 diollars, that has to be a good deal.

How do you know when youv'e made a decision you like? I don't know till after I've done it usually, sometimes just before. I've ducked out of a lot of "done" deals just in time. Don't make your mind up absolutly till you have to pull the trigger.

I bought Pt lately, I don't know about that, can't be too bad tho, as long as it's an honest deal. $359 an ounce. It's going to be silver the rest of the way just based on intuition, poker sureness. Deal the cards.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:39 - ID#277224)
In which part of New Zealand do you live?
I have a son who played fastpitch softball
in the Bay of Islands area for six months.
He arriveed on Guy Fox day.He had spring
here in Canada,spring in NZ and then spring
again back in Canada.Just curious since you
mentioned the Glorious spring.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:40 - ID#252150)
I've been saying for at least a 1 1/2 yrs that Japan is a financial basket case.
Have you read Prechter in Barron's. He sees 9000 on NIK. Makes sense to me. Japan financially is finished, finito, fini & f*cked. Somehow Japan's demise does'nt strike me as being bullish for POG.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:42 - ID#432130)
Everyone I know laughed at me last June when I pulled my money out of index funds and invested it in a private pay-telephone company ( yes I know how Y2k is gonna wipe me out, but you gotta plan for the best too ) . They are paying me 15% APR gauranteed, no if ands or buts, for 5 years with the option to renew at the same rate.

Every two weeks I get a check and a complimentary 20 minute phone card. I had made two equal investments, the first at the beginning of the month, the second on the 15th. Which is why I get two checks ( and two phone cards! ) , each month. They have a website at

They laughed at me then. I didnt laugh at them now. Thanks for your post : )

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:44 - ID#411259)
..... JD .....

Thanks for bringing up my miscalls of the last couple years, keeps me humble.

Regarding long whites and short yellow:

Traded long silver for a bit last year, then switched to short after it rose to 5.40. Got stomped out of the shorts on a 40 cent gap up last December. Missed the first 60 cent rise on the Buffet thingie, but made some cash from 6.00 to 7.00. Many more folks wanted to buy $7 silver than wanted to buy $6 silver, and the phone rang faster as the prices climbed higher. I traded little long silver this year. Took some losses from 6.80 to 6.30, then switched to short from 6.30 to 5.70. Been mostly out of it since then. It is looking very inviting hereabouts, and I have been quietly buying it near 4.80.

I also advocated long platinum this year. Traded some to modest profits, took losses in others, and have been buying up the farm at new lows. Platinum has performed dismally this year, but the assembly lines are still running, and the choice is to buy the platinum or shut 'em down. What say you from South Africa? Heard Impala agree to some pretty stiff wage increases, yes? As long as the rand stay's high re the dollar, these costs will not be figured into the market. If the dollar continues to fall, one would think these wage pressures would come into play. They will run platinum to $328 and the rebound will be as a bungee attached to the very ass of platinum, sproinging it upward in a wave of short covering. I have been guilty of being way to soon to meet the platinum train, but this little trolley will leave the station soon.

The gold shorts have been the true saving grace throughout it all. Consistantly short fro $380 on down. Covered most of my gold shorts from last year between $288 to $280. Became a rather vocal bull for physical purchase of gold just a few weeks ago on this very forum. Delivered thousands of ozers to folks below $300 in their hands. Delivered some below $290 gross. At this time, some of the more consistent gold bulls were lamenting the new lows and tossing about the dreaded $250 figure. I did not trade the metal long, but I delivered one hell of a lot of it. Put in new shorts above $296 and even got some in at $303. These trades are well fed and happy.

On another subject:
I read an interesting article regarding the difference twixt the genders in your neck of the woods. An Orange County reporter, having just moved to ( some damn place down there ) was shocked to find views of womenfolk thereabouts was rather different than she was accustomed.

Is it true that the Man is Lord and Master of all He Sees?

And the Womenfolk always defer to the Man's Judgement?

And they don't Talk Back, or Yell, or Throw Things?

If this is true, please advise. I will purchase a ticket, sell all I have, and join you in your wondrous land. Why have you been keeping this a secret?


(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:46 - ID#304282)
Look at the DJIA compared to the a/d line for the last 10 years.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:47 - ID#304282)
The A/D line didn't show up on the chart but
it peaked in 87!

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:49 - ID#25490)
I live in Auckland, a city famous for its power cuts, America's Cup and for hosting the first ( ? ) sporting event of the new millenium 1/1/00. The Auckland Cup ( horse-racing ) . That and being built on 42 ( or something ) volcanoes. None of them actually extinct.
The Bay of Islands is seriously beautiful, should like to retire up there among the Marlin and Skipjack Tuna....

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:49 - ID#43349)
Away for another night
to await the sunrise. Good night.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:50 - ID#277224)
@ Mole
Thanks for the response.You are correct it is usually
not good policy to recommend individual stocks as it will
frequently come back to bite one on the ass.I guess
I should not have asked.

(Sun Oct 25 1998 23:58 - ID#344326)
Abbey Cohen is bullish when her firm may have a billion in losses.....hmmmmm
Goldman Sachs could be facing a $1bn loss

By Andrew Garfield, Financial Editor
Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's most prestigious investment bank, has suffered heavy losses in the recent market turbulence and as things stand could be heading for a loss of $1bn this quarter, according to people inside the firm.

Goldman has one of biggest proprietary trading desks in the business and is believed to have been active in many of the markets where the hedge funds have come unstuck.

"They are the biggest hedge fund of them all," said one banker.

Much will depend on whether the tentative markets recovery triggered by the US interest rate cut earlier this month holds up for long enough to bail the firm out of some of its loss-making market positions before the books close on the fourth quarter at the end of next month.

Senior officials at the firm have vigorously denied talk of major losses. Tackled recently on reports that the firm was down by $900m, co-chairman Hank Paulson told a US business publication: "Absolutely, not."

However, such denials have done little to silence doubts inside and outside the firm. Mr Paulson and his co-chairman Jon Corzine flew into London last week in a bid to reassure European partners. They have not entirely succeeded.

Morale has not been helped by the fact that Goldman, like its rivals, is carefully scrutinising each of its business areas and is expected to announce cost-cutting in parts oft he business, probably early next year.

Mr Corzine has told staff that the firm would be cutting pay and bonuses, and would do its utmost to avoid a repeat of the exercise in 1994 when 1,500 jobs were axed.

Many observers, including some inside the firm, say that if Goldman does not come clean and take the hit now, it will be seen as a victory for the traditionalists, who want the firm to keep the bad news to itself.

They believe that having decided not to go ahead with their IPO, they should not be giving rivals ammunition at a time when the huge losses being racked up elsewhere on Wall Street could provide a golden opportunity to pick up market share.

They are up against senior management, including Jon Corzine, who are aware of the dangers of repeating the experience of 1994. At that time Goldman was accused by rivals of window-dressing when it declared a profit for the year even though other investment banks were convinced it had made a loss.

Sources say the issue is not so much trading losses as the accounting treatment of out-of-the money market positions and exposures to counter-parties.

In contrast to quoted competitors which have provided a detailed breakdown of emerging market and hedge fund exposures, Goldman has steadfastly refused to come clean, insisting its exposures are minimal.

Such reticence has merely encouraged the rumour mill to turn even more furiously. Goldman was a heavy player in both the Russian bond market and in lending to hedge fund clients.

Goldman officially still maintains that the firm could relaunch its IPO plans within months. However, there is a growing consensus in the marketplace that the firm has missed the opportunity to float and may have have to wait until the next bull market gets into full swing.

Said one investment banker: "To go to the market you want three years of rising profits. You have to wait until this stuff is washed out of the system."