Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:02 - ID#433172)
Japan will never take up residence in a basket. The japanese have a intergrated society which will maintain itself no matter what happens to the financial sector. They can weather any storm.

The USA on the other hand can hardly stand to have the stock boat rocked without " intervention", it also has a "plural" society the members of which don't share a common view,heh heh. It also carries a lot of debt, both personal and public, no where to go but "up" on a waft of hot air.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:05 - ID#341227)
For those posters who conjecture that Japan might be...
...a financial "basket case," then they best be aware of one salient reality....

"As goes Japan, so goes America."



(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:07 - ID#350145)
NZ is paradise. spent 6 months in coopers beach - manganouie ( can't remember how to spell it ) a few years ago. went to 90 mile beach several times a week and fished for snapper. i liked the bluffs the best, although everyone said i could be swept off by a big wave i decided what a way to go. am going back in jan and feb. i live up north in alaska. when i make my fortune in mining shares would like to apply for permanent residence of NZ. i envy you. P.S. i played the horses in Aukland when i was there. i was in seventh heaven.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:10 - ID#219363)
Now that's an investment to me *grin*, free phone card and 15% APR indeed.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:16 - ID#411320)
Dow headed south tomorrow,
Lets see what them dow puts can do now!!! they don't call me rich
for nothing.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:24 - ID#350145)
gold quotes
does anyone know how to access evening gold quotes? thanks. or just what it is doing tonight.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:25 - ID#219363)
Amen brother Rich, and they don't call me, well, okay, they do call me Envy for nothing, but agree that DOW could be headed for cooler waters this week. Go Gold, GO PUTS.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:26 - ID#293184)
Payphones? Sounds almost too good to be true. Good luck.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:28 - ID#25490)
Stay in touch. Au_Producer, also from Alaska is due hereabouts in a few weeks. He has to collect on some Steinlager futures he has held for almost 12 months...

yup. we dont know how propitious are the circumstances,

Y2K survival feature on the gnus

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:30 - ID#25490)
Stay in touch. Au_Producer, also from Alaska is due hereabouts in a few weeks. He has to collect on some Steinlager futures he has held for almost 12 months...

yup. we dont know how propitious are the circumstances,

Y2K survival feature on the gnus

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:31 - ID#254288)
Bonsai babee

With the manipulation of world fiat currencies any one of them is subject to a wild ride, when all currencies are suspect, theories,such as, Armstrongs Flow of Funds might fail to determine strong or weak paper.
Countries with the ability to produce quality goods and with populations that work together, irregardless of possesing natural resources or not most likely emerge healthier than others.
It's hopeful in such circumstances that gold will find its proper role.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:36 - ID#25490)
Topiary anyone?
Bonsai Baby! Such a deliciously wicked picture. Little Babies growing on trees.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 00:38 - ID#257312)
Gold Quotes Presently off .30

(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:11 - ID#257312)
aurator-- Archimedes

Archimedes was a man ahead of his time. For example, he focused sunlight with mirrors and set a Roman fleet on fire in the harbor. I believe Archimedes discovered a viagra like concoction some 2000 years ago. Hence, his exclamation "Eureka!" upon taking his bath.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:14 - ID#252150)
George@I agree that the Japanese have a homogenous society,
but unfortunately too large a % of them are elderly. They have the worst demographics of any Major industrialized Country. They also have a deficit that will exceed 7% & debt that is over 120% of GDP. And they still have'nt even begun to address their intractable difficulties. They are spiralling into the black hole of illiquidity.

I wish it were'nt so as my daughter-in-law is a Japanese National. They are very hard working people who have been deceived by their parasitic elites

The U.S. has a lot of problems, but much better demographics, also the reserve currency & the most powerfull military.

I'm beginning to think that Prechter is right and there will be a complete global financial collapse, but I think that Japan will lead the way down.

John Disney
(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:19 - ID#24135)
Nobody ..
mole ..
who has played ponies under the southern cross can
be all bad.... "most punters" agree on that.

RJ ..
Humility .. in extremis .. is the best approach to
the market.. dont anger the gods..
Surprised if implats settlements out of line.. but
management strategy here is to increase productivity..
amd they have been doing it in spades .. oz per man
is the yardstick .. cutting staff .. using bonuses and
Harmony is the leader in the golds in this .. others
are catching on. Must rub off on the platinum producers
too... but Implats profits will be amazing .. wait and
.. on the gentler sex .. yes.. they are well contained
here. Thats because Afikaaners have a way of teeing off
on them with reckless abandon. Gents of darker hue
follow their example. Man is King .. may the force be
with thee.

Auric ..
Do you happen to have seen any
of his Eureka formulas??

(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:40 - ID#257312)
John Disney 01:19

Sadly, Archimedes took his secret to the grave. However, $500 Gold would bring about the same effect. At least for any red blooded Kitcoite.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:46 - ID#252150)
GCZ8 down & USD up. JY on skids again. On way down to-who knows-

(Mon Oct 26 1998 01:53 - ID#350145)
i play a pretty good hand of poker too. i grew up in the streets. i just didn't stay there. i havn't figured you out yet, but i will. you'll like me when you get to know me. i'm a lot of fun.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 03:03 - ID#255151)
China Says It Will Not Aid Their Bankrupt Financial Institutions' Debts to Foreign Banks

Also says more bankruptcies probable. From the Oct. 26 Financial Times, via Grabbe's web page.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 03:04 - ID#284255)
LGB - wake up?
You really should read what your peers are talking about. ^o-o^

Read all 11 articles dated from October from this index.

I might be considered a D&Ger but I do a lot of homework.
Please note that I have written none of these articles.

They were penned by some of the good/great minds within your country.
You know, those minds who helped to put the USA where it is today.
The US you so admire.

Become aware.
Don't go to Gary North's site.
Go dirrect to your own Governments.
It's all written down in black and white.

Then start to voice an opinion based on a little knowledge.

No offence please, none intended.
Just an hour of your time to become aware.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 03:11 - ID#233199)
Bye the way...

Many thanks for your past consideration...

...long URL's no longer seem to be a problem with MY browser and Kitco.
For whatever reason, long URL's now seem to split themsleves over multiple lines and without "blowing" out Kitco margins.

I hope other users are so fortunate.

Thanks again for all your work.

....steven w.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 03:23 - ID#284255)
Thanks for some clarification.
Yes, they have to start to address the contingency side.
And many look for ways to squirm aside.

But I am surprised that they would need to vocalise these thoughts so soon.
A year from reality and they are merely mentioning it or are they starting to become concerned?

I am starting to see an awareness change coming about.
Amongst the geeks on the forums and also from higher up places.
Obviously much talking is taking place behind closed doors.

To me this is another whisper on the winds.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 03:59 - ID#26793)
Bankers warned that Y2K losses could be US$1 trillion

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:03 - ID#26793)
Japan LTCB bank failure tied to hedge fund exposure

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:09 - ID#284255)
You must have the right browser.
I still have these problems.
Don't know why but occasionally the url doubles up and throws it out too.
I'm still running Win95 with MS IE v3

I need more space to upgrade.
Tried to and rejscted the idea.
I know I should cause my web pages look totally different.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:15 - ID#284255)
I read an interesting article a while back that stated if the global finacial exchanges failed for 10 working days that the whole financial world would come tumbling down.
Seems that it could precipitate a domino effect amongst payments.

A fails to pay B who fails to pay C etc.

Spectulative comments of course but with 1.5 trillion exchanging hands on a daily basis, a potential possiblility.

In this case their estimate of a Trillion dollar hit seems small change.
I guess it would be a similiar effect if the derivative wourld was to come tumbling apart.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:19 - ID#26793)
There is widespread price deflation in much of the world.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:20 - ID#432223)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:23 - ID#26793)
The banks have more to worry about than their own Y2K problems. If their industrial borrowers have problems it will impair their ability to repay loans. A very long daisy chain with this one.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:31 - ID#43349)
Somebody forgot to tell the dollar

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:44 - ID#284255)
And then the bond market just makes the daisy chain even longer.

I know some bond offerings outside the US have failed but has there been any inside the US that have met with poor reception?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:48 - ID#432148)
Donald, good article on Price Deflation in the world -
This is an ominous sign of course, but should help us gold investors in due course. The idea that gold only prospers in inflation we know is another old saw the general investing public does not understand.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:48 - ID#26793)
I hear that a lot of pending deals are being cancelled due to "poor market conditions" These cases never make the news because they don't happen. Bankers are holding back on merger and IPO financing activity and recalling lines of credit.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:57 - ID#432148)
Sharefin - the derivitives are for now -
what lose margin requirements were in 1929 - only much worse. What is happening in Malaysia and Indonesia ( riots ) may well pay most of a visit if and when our economies fall apart. Impossible some may say. Nothing is impossible. Be prepared, ye old boy scout motto, will serve us well. I know you understand what I am saying.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 04:58 - ID#26793)
@Goldbug 23
You are right. I even have a hard time here at Kitco with that concept. It is the buying power of your gold that matters, not the price of your gold.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 05:11 - ID#39857)
something like this ... I need help on ... from anyone interested

journalists may at anytime use my ideas.........yeh...just to touch a palm in somewhere approaching all I need to make me rich.

Treason? Sooooooooo, if your gov sells 2/3 of its gold, for instance
the Aussie gov, which severely affects the value of your gold shares
without giving you a warning of their intention, do you think it possible
to take civil action against Treasury and esp the Treasurer. If your gov
procedes with actions that affect the sovereignty of your country then
have they not committed treason and liable under the appropriate laws?

this has been on my mind for a long time..........
and is this why other countries chose to telegraph their intentions re
gold sales so their citizens could take evasive action........??

bios are effective, however I beleive delivery systems leave too much
in the palms of mother nature, though not for direct hits on water
supplies which seem the most obvious......they are just plain stoopid
like nukes......however if a nuke was in the hands of someone who
had a need to use........would they let the deterrent aspect expire
as I would expect alot of nukes to do due to Y2K............or would
they feel compelled to use before it expired....?????? help

(Mon Oct 26 1998 05:35 - ID#26793)
The U.S. is apparently counting on Japan to help in Brazilian bailout. Seems confusing.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:05 - ID#26793)
Moody's warns of downgrades for eight major Japanese insurance companies

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:09 - ID#43349)
Warren on the move?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:30 - ID#39857)
the sexual pecadillos of a spook??? my my my... this is no joke...
Abbott and Costello have sex with same woman?????
"The legal action against Mr Ellis on the part of Mr Abbott, Mr Costello and their wives claims that Goodbye Jerusalem falsely accuses the two ministers of changing their political allegiance after having sexual relations with a woman who later married one of them".

hmmm.....oh yeh......Costello...Aussie Treasurer.....cashing up!!!!!!!!!
his new book...............
First Abolish the Customer, sub-titled 202 Arguments Against Economic Rationalism, is, its publishers claim, ``a sweeping, swashbuckling account of why economic rationalism is not the answer for Australia''. No small irony either, given the circumstances surrounding its launch, that the final chapter is entitled Prove that I Lie.
Bob Ellis a truly great Australian palms seek his

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:36 - ID#29048)
A new gold bull middle of global deflation

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:54 - ID#411271)
@ sharefin, so when your milling about Herberton, next, should you bump
into my sister, she is active in the local government, publishes a small local newspaper, and runs the local art & craft outlet in town. Her name is Kathy and it would close around this great big world some if you told
her you knew her brother, Ran from Nashville.
She has been in Australia now for about 6 years. Original she and some others homesteaded with a platform-canvas open air home with no utilites-- got her water and bath from a lovely nearby river. So I don't
imagine she would be lost in an extensive y2k scenario. She later moved
into an abandoned communal property house that again had no windows, doors, or utulities. One of her exes was very big into selling solar derived electricity panels. She now lives in one of the old tin-miners
homes and has bought some land to build her dream place on.
So does Herberton represent the run to the hills safety scenario for you, or are just attracted by the beauty and repose/ or both?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 06:57 - ID#252391)
Gollum on Buffett
If Buffett is going to buy into LTCM do you suppose he has some metal he wants to deliver into their short position, or does he have a yen for obscure debt insturment spreads. Curious motivation suppose we'll never have the full details of. Or is this his way of saving his friends in the big banks??? He may well see that the positions LTCM still has will work out given time and money.

What do you think???

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:04 - ID#28882)
@jims re Buffet & LT

Why would he deliver at these prices? sam_a.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:21 - ID#333126)
has anyone posted this yet? kewl reading

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:32 - ID#347457)
@sam ob Buffet & LTCM
Why would he deliver at these prices?

It may be not a bad move to deliver at these prices something what you have ( don't need to spend additional capital to buy it ) if in the end it saves the entity which you believe can turn around into profitable enterprise. Lets say that you have a bunch of firewood in your possession and there is a mismanaged company with distribution channels ( you are interested in ) . Company made a lot of bad moves and owes a bunch of firewood to their clients. Why not to buy this company for a cheap price and deliver your firewood ( to clean the obligations ) and you still will have a bunch of firewood left to sell. In the end you'll have what you've been looking for less that that you would pay if thing were OK with LTCM. I am sure that Buffet group did their math.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:42 - ID#43185)
Buffett story

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:48 - ID#43185)
Seems a little strange, seeing WB interested in a hedge fund. On the other hand....

Warren has in the past specialized in investments in companies with good management ( with the exception of his well known silver foray ) .

He goes for value and good fundamentals.

Looking at LTCM it seems it has really great fundamentals ( don't laugh ) , highly sophistcated software, access to big banks, Nobel prizewinning talent, and so forth. The problem seems to be it's high stakes gunslinger head Merriwhether.

What if you took LTCM, removed Merriwhether, and put in someone with as much good common sense as Buffett?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:49 - ID#333126)
whatta great conspiracy theory (I believe this has come out on vronsky's site before in some form)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:54 - ID#333126)
UK has record trade deficit too


(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:56 - ID#284255)
Rest assured I will catch up with Kathy and pass on your regards.
Herberton is a small town with a population of around 500 people or so.
Next closest town is Atherton with a pop of 2000 odd.
So the area is low key.
It's only 1 1/2 hrs drive away.
What appeals to me there is my friend who has an idealic self sufficient farm.
A beautiful place where we'll spend some time till the chaos blows over.

I sure don't want to be in Cairns when the lights etc go out.
Too many tourists who will quickly become obnoxious once they run out of ice.

I would say that Y2k won't hit this area nearly as bad as most parts.
So one of the main reasons we'll be up that way will be because of the beauty and repose scenario.
Evade the chaos and enjoy the tranquility.

Will Y2K Lead to a Global Flight to Quality?

Charting the Course at the Edges of the Economic Storm - Asia & China

Euro Focus
NATCA - FAA Contingency Plans - start 1/2 way down - eyeopener

(Mon Oct 26 1998 07:57 - ID#341294)
Fed Rate Cut
Can anyone verify the validity of this story?

Inside Wall Street Oct 22 1998 3:33PM CST

The Real Story Behind the Fed Ease

By Paul Lam
Senior Markets Writer

Contrary to what most would like to believe, the Federal Reserves
abrupt decision to cut interest rates on Oct.15 was not so much due
to concerns over a slowing economy or credit crunch. The action,
which came 16 days after the first 0.25% rate cut, was outside the
normal context of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting,
which does not convene again until Nov. 17. It was a response to
an immediate meltdown threat of the banking system.

According to informed sources, the Fed had been injecting liquidity
into major banks even before the Oct. 15 ease. Federal Reserve
repo tenders, which are repurchases of Treasury securities held by
banks in return for short-term cash, a common way to add liquidity
to the banking system, rose by 35% during the two weeks prior to
the surprise rate-cut.

The Oct. 15 ease, on top of the recent surge in liquidity available to
banks, reportedly came after urgent requests from the president of
the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told Federal
Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan of extraordinary demands by
one member bank in its region.

Reliable sources indicate that this demand for repo funds had been
provoked by a credit squeeze in the interbank market against Bank
of America ( BAC:NYSE ) . Bankers believe that the bank's troubles
are far more serious than what is being told to the public. Bank of
America made a $357 million loss write-off due to its participation
in the troubled hedge fund D.E. Shaw, and bought $20 billion in
outstanding securities and derivatives contracts from that hedge fund
in order to prevent its demise. The grave danger on Oct. 15 was of
a breakdown in the interbank payments system, which could have
easily led to a global systemic collapse.

While investors around the world rejoice the Feds action by
outrageously bidding up stock prices, the more alarming message is
that the emerging markets crisis has now fully reached the G7
financial systems.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:00 - ID#43185)
Lest we forget

John Disney
(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:02 - ID#24135)
Abbott and Costello ..
.. story gives new meaning to ..

"who's on first"

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:05 - ID#333126)
more interesting comments

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:05 - ID#348257)
Just watched a CNBC interview with Dick Chaney, former Secretary of Defense ( remember Somalia!? ( ( we ex-GI's do ) ) ) now CEO of Halliburton ( which just merged with Dresser ) . The segment, dealing with the downturn in the oil patch and its fallout on exploration and service companies, was entitled "COPING WITH THE CRISIS." I guess a clear signal that the bottom is just about in for the shares in this sector. Astrologically, I still stand by a last bout of weakness for crude coming up as the Winter matures, then the pressure abating in Spring. The shares may test their lows before reversing for good. Ahhh...spring!

Which leads me to a question here. I would have suspected ( attempting to be a "logical" astrologer ) that the weakness in energy would coincide with whatever touch of recession may be approaching ( as heralded by many economists and observers ) . Yet if we make an astrological ( or in any other wise ) case for a noticeable recovery in oil and gas next year, what does that say? Either the recovery will be delicate, in which case it could survive as a well-earned rebound while everything else softens, or the recovery will be robust ( I'm not talking $30 oil, but at least a flirt with $20 for starters ) . Peering through the econo-mists, do the economists have it wrong? No such weakness ahead, but rather a rapid rebound in Asia, Latin America, and perhaps oil supply disruptions somewhere to boot ( Nigeria getting awfully precarious - that recent explosion blamed on local distillate theives, but there were warnings of sabotage just weeks before as political opponents of the ruling thugs expressed that they were losing patience with their long-standing "hands-off" the oil industry stance ) .

If there is NO "recession," and there is a more robust rebound than is dreamed of now, and energy prices firm deliciously, may we be looking at the lows in interest rates right now?

The other scenario is that the recession does come, gently, and oil prices do firm, reasonably. Incomprehensible, but possible. Where does that leave Japan's Yen in the face of a long-standing battle against depression. As energy prices rise, will it not be further incumbent upon Japan to make available greater quantities of currency for easier purchase of imported fuel, or will this put the nail in the coffin for the Land of the Rising Sun.

Am I confusing myself?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:07 - ID#28882)
@Miro (@sam ob Buffet & LTCM)

I'll work with that example. Suppose the firewood company has been for years selling firewood it doesn't own; it has been going around and telling everyone with an ear that it knows people in high places and soon vast tracks of forested govt land soon will become open for harvesting. So it jumps the gun and contracts to sell the wood before it is cut. And so do all the other firewood companies, because, hey, it's the thing to do. Any doubters of this investment strategy are met sternly with the refrain: "We have 186 years of firewood inventory of earth! We are swimming in the stuff! Sell! sell! sell!"

Now we have Mr. Astute Investor, a gentleman who has stockpiled firewood in a warehouse, all cut and neatly stacked. He looks at the situation and says to himself -- Hmmm, firewood consumption exceeds firewood production, firewood prices are at or near multi-year lows and the only way this imbalence can be righted is if the govt. does open its vast tracks of land for harvesting. Moreover, one-quarter of this land _has_alrady_been_sold ( with the counterparties potentially expecting delivery. ) But Mr. Astute Investor knows that just because there is a lot of land out there doesn't mean this land is for sale; indeed, in some places there are laws against land sales and in others one might expect a public outcry if govt. land were to be sold off to foriegn entities. Given this backdrop, Mr. Astute Investor looks at Distressed Firewood Co. asks himself: How will they ever deliver this firewood? If folks in Northern Ontario will soon be knocking on his door ( Sir, it's getting cold up here, spare some firewood? ) , he can also be sure that Distressed Firewood Co. will also eyeballing with some thirst his neatly piled stack of firewood. Why? Because they owe folks in Northern Russia this wood and 1. A cold Russian is an angry Russian; 2. It gets awful cold in Russia.

Given this scenerio, why would Mr Astute Investor feel inclined to sell his firewood, all neatly piled and stacked?


Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:09 - ID#348257)
Perhaps the Sage of Omaha wants to acquire all those short positions on bonds at a nice discount. Just as interest rates reach their nadir ( and I don't mean Ralph... )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:19 - ID#347457)
@Sam on Buffet
Sam, I hear you, however, I think that our astute investor wants to go from "land owner" position to "firewood retail" business as he thinks thats wher he'll make more money in the future. He believs that once he cleans up a rotten management in the company, there is a lot of money to be made. From his past ventures, it's more his forte than being the land owner.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:22 - ID#43185)
Why did the Fed lower rates?
The Fed has a long memory.

The depression, of course, was not caused by the stock market crash in '29. It had a great deal more to do with the subsequent contraction of the money supply going into 1930.

As we sit here in the eye of the storm, lets us reflect on events so far unfolded this year. A slowing of the stock market bubble as the asian crises deepened. A lowering of rates by the Fed. Hedge funds got in trouble and had to meet margin calls from the banks. Bank trading desks got in trouble, but we haven't heard all the fallout from THAT yet.

Banks don't have to meet margin calls right away. They get to spend some time running around with white faces and worried looks, checking now and then to see when the auditors are due and the next quarterly reports have to go out.

When we start to hear the rest of the story, we'll be at the end of the eye.

Here's an excerpt discussing events in '30:

The Run on Banks

So what caused a 31-percent contraction in the money supply? Pretty clearly, the public run on banks. The first banking panic occurred in late 1930; the second in the spring of 1931, and the third in March 1933. When it was over, 10,000 banks had gone out of business, with well over $2 billion in deposits lost.

Banking panics occur when the public fears that monetary institutions are on the verge of collapse. The securities market falls so fast that investors scramble to convert their holdings into cash, thus creating a public run on banks. But banks, whose loans are based on fractional reserves, cannot afford to give everyone their money all at once, and therefore go bankrupt. A chain reaction follows as deposit-owners who have lost their money can no longer afford to pay off other debts and costs of business, driving others to scramble for cash as well.

Today we know how to prevent banking panics from developing into a chain reaction -- thanks to lessons learned from the Great Depression. For example, the stock market crash of 1987 was even larger than the Crash of '29, but timely government action prevented a run on banks. One of the solutions is to make sure that banks have enough reserves to cover their deposits - that is, expand the money supply. This is why the Fed's relative inaction between 1930 and 1931 has come under such intense criticism. But, to be fair, monetary theory was undeveloped at the time, and nobody was aware of the solutions.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:23 - ID#258427)
Since we are coming up on COMEX...think you could get the frames spot thingie updating...??? TIA

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:25 - ID#347457)
I better stop, my brain and fingers are way out of sync
Oh well, every second word misspelled. Off to wake me up :- (

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:28 - ID#43185)
@Mike Sheller
You hit the nail on the head. Japan has very little natural resources of her own. The ONLY reason she is still barely alive at this point is because the price of oil and other raw materials has been so low.

She HAS to get her act together before oil prices firm up or all is lost.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:29 - ID#45173)
US imports global deflation
The popular misunderstanding of the US's 1930s protectionist policies is that the US stupidly slapped on trade restrictions and import duties, thus deapening the recession. But they had no choice. Cheap goods were pouring into the US, killing US manufacturers, and throwing US workers out of work, putting increased recessionary pressure on the US economy. Just like today. Look at the US manufacturing numbers from the last few months as the US current account deficit has soared.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:34 - ID#43185)
Bonds down big time

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:35 - ID#371229)
@sharefin GOOD ON YA, MATE !

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:35 - ID#333126)
damn! where's my bond put train tickets?

come on, bond dipsters... buy some ...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:36 - ID#45173)
Interesting story in The Boston Globe this a.m. They advise that you refinance your home now, since mortgage rates are as likely to rise as fall. They made the point that when the Fed lowered rates, mortgage rates actually went up at first ( hedge fund unwinding ) and then settled back down to where they were before the rates were lowered. The prime rate has stayed the same. So how is this going to get Joe Sixpack out to buy more appliances and build a new house? Now it looks like the Fed will not lower rates more, as inflation appears to be showing up in some parts of the economy.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:37 - ID#43185)
Black Monday?
Globex is up but, I've got a baaaaddd feeling about this.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:39 - ID#370236)
Spot gold off $1.80 @ $291.05

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:42 - ID#333126)
these bad earnings reports just keep on coming

is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the "good" and "ok" earnings reports so far have all been in high tech and ... ahem ... software companies?

talk about tangible goods...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:42 - ID#43185)
Joe Sixpack better hurry. No on is going to believe how FAST rates can go up when a bond market panic starts.

Of course, by next year there should be some REALLY low rates available as the whipsaw swings back.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 08:49 - ID#371229)
@Gollum, responding to your 8:22 , please check my 10/24 23:38 post
regarding the fed's printing of $200 Billion in additional cash reserves.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:11 - ID#412172)
SI is dead slow
Anyone know why??

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:14 - ID#339274)
FWIW We are going to see a bottom for Plat if it is already in.
Gold will see one at the end of the week.XAU 63? Definitely
67 today ,with a bounce to 69.8 and after they say the trend
is your friend.

to John Disney,
Thanks for telling me your take on it.Sentiment is a funny
thing in this market or any.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:16 - ID#341294)
@Gollum re: Fed Rate Cut
Thanks for the info, but it sounds rather simplistic to me that the depression could have been averted by the Fed simply printing more money. The same is true today. The Fed is printing money as fast as it can. At what point does the public, business & private citizens alike, come to realize that if, for example, there was $2 trillion dollars in circulation in 1996 & there is $4 trillion in circulation today, that $100 dollar bill in your pocket has been effectively devalued by 50%?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:17 - ID#43185)
Some real wiggles in silver this morning. Down to 4.82 then back up again. This going to be SOME day.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:19 - ID#43185)
You are right. Simply printing more money wouldn't have done it. Saving the banks would have - - if done in time.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:21 - ID#43185)
With all that money in circulation, why are commodity prices so low, and liquidity so tight? Where is it?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:35 - ID#288466)
I mean yield above 50 DMA

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:35 - ID#288466)
@ GOLLUM @ bonds

December contract now above 50 Day moving avg.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:39 - ID#390150)
Russian Gold plan...
Quite small to start, it keeps gold produced in Russia off of world markets, and may promote the changing of US dollars for gold in that part

of the world.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:53 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 173.406 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 291.200 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Oct 1998 ) : 172.470 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Oct 1998 ) : 292.250 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8885 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 4.8600 US Dollars

(Mon Oct 26 1998 09:59 - ID#225283)
Bankers Trust is joined by the rock

internal audits of Prudential show that they will soon be in the same leaking boat as BT...the SS Derivative...both will sink like a Rock!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:27 - ID#339274)
volume trend reversal
FWIW Volume trend change on the XAU is taking place.
Positive ,68.06 could be the bottom for today.Went long NEM

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:27 - ID#258427)
test gold

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:32 - ID#258427)
The USD is really wild
against the up again..

Bonds recovered...a bunch...really wild stuff this morning..

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:47 - ID#339274)
FWIW SnP has given a sell signal,gold should countertrend.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:58 - ID#240241)
Anyone want to guess on xau low for today?
I've heard a few hear mention that breaking the $293 resistance was
not a good thing. That if we did, then probably heading much lower.
Would appreciate any comments or thoughts.

Gandalf the White
(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:59 - ID#37885)
Cyclist Chart Readings
Are you looking at these charts up-side down ?
EVERYTHING is different that you see !
My readings are totally the opposite.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 10:59 - ID#347457)
OK, why is gold decoupled from XAU today?
Why is it that a spot gold recovered a bit but XAU keeps going down?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:00 - ID#284255)
A global perspective
OECD - Impacts and Actions

German Federal Government Report

Year 2000 and Euro:

United Nations

Japanese Banking

And least we forget

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:01 - ID#410194)
Gold & Silver
Morning analysis from Hightower Report:

"GOLD: Slumping Yen prices and semi failure from gold in the US last week leaves the market on a potential beakout down status. Funds followed this failure in the COT report by getting short nearly 8,000 contracts in the last two weeks. Maybe spot gold will be capable of holding up above $290 an ounce but the futures look headed down to 290 which could mean a breakout down in the spot market. Maybe the deflation time has transplanted the previous bearish sentiment that the strong Dollar is making gold too expensive. With deflation and strong dollar conditions its simply too much for gold given the lack of speculative interest."

"SILVER: The problem with Silver is that the recent COT report shows small specs are still long 16,209 contracts and the price structure really hasn't broken out to the downside yet. We expect a 479 trade this week maybe lower. The trade reported sluggishness because of industry meetings in London but we are not sure that having some traders away is keeping silver from its real fate of testing chart support."

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:03 - ID#71231)
Gollum, Frail - it is in stock index futures and yahoo stock - repost
This is from an Email I sent to someone who is quoted here quite often.

I see you are coming qround to the view I have of the market's modus
operandi at this time. I'll give you my take on what is happening. Tell
me if you think this is correct, if not, please tell me what you think
is wrong with the arguments.

The players in the drama and the nature of their parts:
1. Investment banks, brokerages and their trading departments: ( a )
goals - sell options ( calls and puts ) to reap the benefits of the time
premium. Hedgeing is not a real possibility - what they sell is
volatility and the possible hedges cancel each other to leave net
exposure to volatility - and may atually create it. e.g. - to hedge a
put one sells short, while doing so causes the price to decline and
increases the value of the put obligation. So they usually start with
some net exposure and hedge if the price moves against them, thus making
the situation worse ( remember portfolio insurance in the 87 crash? ) .
( b ) Their risk planning allows 10% market moves ( statistical
calculations they use are remarkably primitive for this day and age and
rely on insufficient data ) . 15% will endanger their capital base. 20%
will eradicate all their capital and cause default on obligations
( Barrons interviews in November, April and other issues ) .
( c ) Previously, they had enough cash on hand to buy the market exactly
at the 10% drop point through the futures markets. The disintegration of
the emerging market, mortgage, Yen Carry, and junk bond positions tied
up their capital and they couldn't do it.
( d ) They borrow emergency money from commercial banks. ( e ) with fresh
funds on hand from the banks they buy the market. ( Each stock's price is
manipulated to minimize payout on options ) ( had about 40 bil in capital
- now 30?? )

2. Banks: ( a ) Are creditors to investment bankers and brojerages. ( b )
are damaged by the bond market disintegration. ( c ) go to the FED for
more money, threatening self immolation if demands are not met for more
money to lend to investment bankers so they can buy back the equity
market. ( have about 500 bil in reserves )

3. Shorts: ( a ) In recognition of the remarkably bad investment
situation, shorts start their work in August of last year. ( b ) shorts
start piling up on the hillariously valued and funduumentally weak
techs, cokes, GEs and internauts through June. ( c ) They are squeezed
into the July highs and reestablish positions on the way down. The July
high was not a bull market top - it was a short capitulation. ( d ) The
thoroughly researched bad investments get a new short following.

4. Fidelity and other well connected mutual funds: ( a ) have been playing
the short squeeze game for quite a while and orchestrate this with
inside information on short positions from their own brokerage arms or
from their loyal and ever helpful brokers.. ( b ) took out credit lines
from money center banks so that they did not need to sell into a falling
market as mutual fund withdrawls mount. Some of the credit may have been
used to maintain prices.

5. FED: ( a ) Wants to maintain growth, full employment, stable banking
system and value of dollar. ( b ) Bank threats of destruction lead to pump
priming on an unprecedented scale when the exposure of the hedgies and
brokers is known. ( c ) realize that more pumping will just send the
markets into more absurd territory, but are faced with a connundrum.

Current situation - FED must continuously lend to banks who lend to
brokerage and investment banks. - printing money saves the system but
brings inflation - that weakens dollar and gold prices to rise - that
causes yen and gold carry unwinding - that threatens the banking
system. The only solution is to find a value "sink" for all the new
credit created that can be given infinite or near infinite value and
will continuously attract investment into dollars. This value sink, in
the normal course of money pumping ( inflation ) is gold and the other
precious metals and then commodities, and finally labor ( particularly
management ) , that have competing values. Bonds are valued by yield and
risk and are not suitable as value sinks. Stocks of humdrum businesses
can't be sinks for excess credit because they have rather obvious
business values. However, stocks that represent "brand names", "superior
business model", "dominance of business terrain", "internet", "medical
breakthroughs", and "new technologies" can take up large ( infinite? )
ammounts of "value" because much is intangible in their valuation - it
is as high or as low as the public's imagination of their potential.
Further shares can be issued ad-infinitum, as long as the FED is willing
to finance banks to help the poor investment banks and brokerages who
sold puts on these things ( and hedged with a short ) .

When shorts point out the fact that valuations are unreal and act on
their perception, they can be forced into becoming the buyer of last
resort, the "greater fool". When shorts capitulate and cease re-shorting
their favorite duds, that is when the market looses its last source of
funds ( aside from additional leverage ) and starts to sink.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:10 - ID#371229)
The reason for the '29 market crash? Too few George Bailey's, too many Mr. Potters

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:12 - ID#224230)
The Great 1998 Internet Gold Ramp
Surely in this internet era, a movement could be initiated to shamelessly ramp gold. Let's face it, the government is shamelessly manipulating its price down.

i.e. buy a few ounces of gold and forward this email and source information link to everybody in your address book. Start with hardcore Kitcoites + lurkers etc. Before you know what you have say 1000 emails x 50 in each address book x x etc. Wouldn't take long to reach most internet users out there.

It wouldn't be like trying to ramp a single specific stock would it.

It's All Those ridiculously priced paper assets OR THIS....Point them to a website to see the real thing and have it's nature explained in terms even JoeSixPack can understand. My little link being an example.

We take the best of the thinking on this forum and sell a "First in makes the most profit proposition". The Great 1998 Gold Ramp Game.

Chuck in a little Y2K haremscarem if you absolutely must !

Where's the downside ? Worst case you're left with the few ounces of gold you bought and the price doesnt' jump up. There is relatively little downside to the price after 18 years of manipulation.

( Nothing like a pretty picture to spark the imagination of people who can't get the economics story )

Is there anything wrong with this idea. I appreciate some critique from you experts. I suppose the idea's so obvious it would be illegal !

Lan Man
(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:13 - ID#320108)
@a global systemic collapse
Inside Wall Street Oct 22 1998 3:33PM CST


The Real Story Behind the Fed Ease

By Paul Lam

Senior Markets Writer

Contrary to what most would like to believe, the Federal Reserve's abrupt decision to cut interest rates on Oct.15 was not so much due to concerns over a slowing economy or credit crunch. The action, which came 16 days after the first 0.25% rate cut, was outside the normal context of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which does not convene again until Nov. 17. It was a response to an immediate meltdown threat of the banking system.

According to informed sources, the Fed had been injecting liquidity into major banks even before the Oct. 15 ease. Federal Reserve repo tenders, which are repurchases of Treasury securities held by banks in return for short-term cash, a common way to add liquidity to the banking system, rose by 35% during the two weeks prior to the surprise rate-cut.

The Oct. 15 ease, on top of the recent surge in liquidity available to banks, reportedly came after urgent requests from the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan of extraordinary demands by one member bank in its region.

Reliable sources indicate that this demand for repo funds had been provoked by a credit squeeze in the interbank market against Bank of America ( BAC:NYSE ) . Bankers believe that the bank's troubles are far more serious than what is being told to the public. Bank of America made a $357 million loss write-off due to its participation in the troubled hedge fund D.E. Shaw, and bought $20 billion in outstanding securities and derivatives contracts from that hedge fund in order to prevent its demise. The grave danger on Oct. 15 was of a breakdown in the interbank payments system, which could have easily led to a global systemic collapse.

While investors around the world rejoice the Fed's action by outrageously bidding up stock prices, the more alarming message is that the emerging markets crisis has now fully reached the G7 financial systems.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:16 - ID#222186)
Do Not Dispair
GOLDBUGS! Do not despair! Put your charts away, wean yourself off Fibonacci, Elliott, and the like -- until after this midterm election of the year ( 666*3 ) .

After November 3, the smoke will dissipate, the mirrors will shatter, the meaning of real value will emerge.

PATIENCE is what we need now. You will not have to wait longer than Wednesday, November 11.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:20 - ID#266105)

From the Fiend's page:

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:21 - ID#295111)
ABX - (Barrick Gold) - Short Position
The Financial Post on Saturday shows 22.5 Million shares of Baricvk shorted as at Oct/15/98 on the TSE. Last time I checked Barrons, Barrick was short 6 Million shares on the NYSE.


Guesses are most welcome...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:24 - ID#339274)
Gandalf the White
FYI keep looking for the indicators and your wallet : )
I'm happy with my fill 20 5/8,and a stop at 20 3/8.
It is a traders paradise in shifting sentiments

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:26 - ID#252150)
Miro@XAU was decoupled from POG when it ran ahead in anticipation
of higher prices. It is now reflecting a more realitic POG. IMO.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:27 - ID#277224)
The question begs to be asked,why November 3rd.??

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:27 - ID#288466)
FWIW - Bought DROOY this morning on T/A of

pinching Bollinger Bands and momentum change. Current action no doubt related to anticipation of quarterly earnings - which are to be announced tomorrow.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:30 - ID#222186)
November 3rd = Election Day

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:31 - ID#347457)
@James, gold and XAU
I agree with your statement, however, they used to move in the same direction. Today, spot gold started to recover but XAU kept falling down. It's a strange day anyway. Everything is down one minute, up a few minutes later...

Gandalf the White
(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:34 - ID#37885)
Happy with your NEM stop fill ?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:41 - ID#31868)
mean while...all that glitters is not gold...nope...ah...and with a silver lining...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:42 - ID#339274)
That are the trades,a loss of 1/4.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:45 - ID#258427)
I cannot recall another day when
I have seen Bonds take such a violent swing ... from WAY DOWN to WAY UP.. Kinda Scary to see such wild swings...same with the USD/YEN...I think I am happy just staying in gold and gold shares....

Gandalf the White
(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:46 - ID#37885)
OK -- now let us try to read these charts TOGETHER !
Looks as if the XAU could go to the mid 60's before holding.
that should not take more than a week or so and THEN let us see what each of us sees.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:52 - ID#213135)
The metals are slow today. Dec Gold should trade down to 288 and hold, if it doesn't hold the gap at 275 will likely be filled. Silver broke down below the small triangle it has been forming and has now traded back toward the apex. It should soon begin a drop down to 4.40. I'm short, sell at market use a 5 cent stop.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 11:57 - ID#333126)
BillD @ bond yields
indeed. i was wondering if the bond market would take a nosedive earlier today.

how much money is being thrown at the bond market to pull off such a reversal?


(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:00 - ID#339274)
Gandalf the White
The chart says we are heading down in a big way,unless 63 holds.
Other than that it is daytrading,short and long in NEM.
I'll be with you : )

Cage Rattler
(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:01 - ID#33184)
Bank of Italy cuts rates by 1% (100 basis points)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:01 - ID#350288)
MY 2 

I believe that we should see a 500 or so drop in the DOW with the next week. I say this because gold seems to be drivin down prior to correction. They drive the price down to 280-290 range to make it look unattractive. Then when DOW tumbles, gold surge to near 300 at which time DOW stablizes and gold retreats a little. No I don't having any charts to back it up, its just a observation. Am I way off, maybe so, but there is no logic in the movement of metals and markets anymore. There is a new game in town and I believe that we need to learn to play with the new playbook.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:01 - ID#32078)
In the last week a not-so-subtle trend is setting in where XAU and gold stocks are descending much more than gold or silver. This not a good trend and will probably continue unless there is some kind of news breakthru to reverse it. If it lasts much longer, gold and silver will fall through support, which gold is approaching at 290.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:05 - ID#266105)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:14 - ID#339274)
FYI GWI , back in again at 20 5/16.Stop 20 1/8.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:14 - ID#252150)
Noticed a metals analyst on CNBC-missed his name,
but was a little surprised when he mentioned that Poland is now exporting silver to India. That's 1 of the main reasons that I've stayed away from it-just too difficult to get a handle on the supply. If I had the nerve though, I'd sell the futures right here. The thought of limit moves keeps me on the sidelines.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:16 - ID#411320)
@mapleman your observation are partially correct
Stocks will not stablize down 500, but will go to low 7500 or 6000
by around end of november. gold should go pass the 300 to 350
anyway I am in neither market, I have gsr, and mapleleafs, and wayout
puts on dow. I don't work anymore cause my investment have been
most of the time on the money.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:19 - ID#399147)
Retired Soldier
Just letting everyone know I am now in Garmisch having a great time looking at the snow bunnies on the Zugspitz and have replace the gold I sold in fear of customes inspectors and the price is down from when I sold. Life is GOOOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was able to get more!!!!!!!!!
Strad, Tol,Reify thanks for private e-mails. I dont get much computer time yet. Greetings to all.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:28 - ID#269409)
@ Sharefin...... Y2K info.
Thanks Nick for the Y2K link. One of the best collections of hard info. detailing the actual problem, solutions, milestones, etc. I've seen. Including several relating to the industry of my employ, satellite telecommunications.

I read through all that testimony and it greatly re-inforces my beliefs, and planning on Y2K. Those beliefs being;

1 ) It'll be a big and expensive problem that'll cause disruptions worldwide in a number of infrastructure, communication, financial, etc.It'll cost money that'll rob profits from corporations, cause delays in production and milestone plans, and inconvenience everyone on some way or another.

2 ) An enormous amount of time, money, and resources are currently being devoted to fixing the problem ( in the U.S. anyway ) and these efforts will minimize the impact.

3 ) The economy, and civilization as we know it, will not substantivly change due to Y2K. Gary North's predictions will expose him as a fool...well....I should say, his latest predictions will continue to expose him as the fool he has made himself in all his similar G & D scenarios he's laid out in previous years with other subjects.

4 ) Gold will not become a substitute medium of exchange for currencies. Gold will not be an effective means of exchanging goods and services.

However, we will see a temporary boost in POG due to hypsters, fear, and public perceptions that Gold will somehow provide "security".... from power outages, travel and communications problems, computer and business snafu's, etc. Of course it will do no such thing.... but maybe it'll make the newfangled Gold purchasers feel better at night knowing they did "something" to prepare! ( Until they see the inevitable price drop in early 2000 anyway! )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:29 - ID#333126)
this market is nutz
i'm gonna spend more funny money on those bond puts tomorrow.

when crude falls back to historical lows, i'll join cherokee on the dec99 call wagon. ditto for golf ( erm... golf...whatever )

any suggestions as to what position to take to take advantage of the impending US equity fall? ( I like options since loss is limited )

Cage Rattler
(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:35 - ID#33184)
Dollar on the move ...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:36 - ID#368244)
You think that gold is dead, never to rise above 400. You might be right!

I hope not!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:37 - ID#93127)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 173.406 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 291.200 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 173.410 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 291.450 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 2.8885 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 4.8600 US Dollars

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:39 - ID#269409)
@ Y2K...Bob Brinkers take
Was listening to "Money Talk" yesterday and a woman called Bob, inquiring whether she should run out and but a lot of Gold to prepare for Y2K because she "heard from a salesman" that this was a crucially important thing for her to do.

Needless to say, Bob's response was, shall we say, bordering on the sarcastic.... he explained that in a "worst case" scenario, i.e. a Y2K induced collapse of the world economy and financial system, Gold, oil, and other commodities would face an enormous drop in value. It would be physical cash that would be king.... ( and of course the Treasury is printing billion extra such cash in anticipation of public demand ) .

Bob basically summarized the issue by stating that it will be a big problem, will cause inconveniences, and that Gold would be useless as part of the financial preparation for solutions.

As stated in previous post...I do agree with him. However, I'm buying a little Gold at these levels ( and holding a bunch of silver from July before last ) ... in anticipation of a perception induced run-up in 1999, that'll precede a big drop, come first quarter 2000.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:42 - ID#269409)
@ Isure.... Is Gold dead?
Well no...I believe Gold may approach $400 in late 1999... but collpase back to $320 or so in early 2000...before beginning it's TRUE bull market sometime in the next century! ( Don't ask me when...I have no clue...too many variables can change betwixt now and then...we need inflation for it to really take off )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:48 - ID#269409)
@ Ran...the 29 crash
Ran, watch it now're on a forum that is almost exclusively populated by Mr. Potter's with VERY few George Bailey's!...remember, George was the one who believed in extended credit to his worthy fellow man in the belief that this would allow said fellow man to prosper, create economic growth, and thus help lead the community/country out of the crises! This is the virtual antithesis of everything the true diehard GoldBug believes!

"Date: Mon Oct 26 1998 11:10
RAN ( The reason for the '29 market crash? Too few George Bailey's, too many Mr. Potters )

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 26 1998 12:59 - ID#348257)
Hey, daddy-o. So you reeely think them gold "hypsters" will be takin' advantage of that Y2K thingie? Heyyyy. Sounds Reeeeeal Cool to me, reeeeeal cool.

Oh...sorry, thought you meant "hipsters." ( ; +

Mike Sheller
(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:01 - ID#348257)
No No No...THIS diehard goldbug looooooves to see all that "extra credit" flowing. Roll the presses I say. Then gold starts up. All that "hard money" stuff is like castor oil. UGH.

Did I ever tell you how you could run the world monetary economy on an ounce of gold and an electron microscope?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:02 - ID#31868)
LGB, Namaste' gulp and a puff to dear fellow you completely miss the point
in the difference between banking and a system of further into these two spheres of finance and you will be left with only one conclusion...banking and the system of payments must be seperated...

yup..uh huh...

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:03 - ID#295111)
Plucked out of USAGOLD - The Start Of A Gold Bul Market

by Dan Ascani
The Global Market Strategist

A new bull market in gold stocks is very likely beginning. A new bull market in gold itself appears imminent, as would also be
the case with the entire precious metals complex if, in fact, this assessment is correct.

There is no need to again reiterate the many technical and fundamental reasons we expect a precious metals and gold stock bull
market. However, we can update the situation as follows:

From a technical standpoint, gold has spent the entire year basing after 18 years of bear market. That basing process is thus far
successful, with last month's brief break of the January low not significant and not seeing any follow-through selling. If gold
moves above the $317 area significantly, we can conclude that, after nine months of testing, the long-term Fibonacci support
level of $281 is, within a normal margin for error, marking the end of the bear market. Additionally, we have observed that
historically, after a mega bull market in stocks ends and deflation sets in, gold stocks typically begin a long-term secular bull
market. The last time this situation occurred was in 1930 when gold shares launched a five-year bull market, the first nearly
three years of it against the general downtrend of the plunging bear market in stocks. Gold later bottomed in the midst of the
deflationary depression and launched a multi-year bull market of its own.

Although the fast-moving global environment in the late 20th century is much different than that of the 1930s ( especially in the
fact that the world is no longer on the gold standard as it was in the 1930s ) , a similar outlook for the metals and gold stocks
after years of washout appears in the cards as we have forecast. Although we cannot rule out another round of gold weakness,
it is so-far-so-good for gold's prospects for launching a bull market. This will especially be true if, in fact, the newest bull phase
in gold shares is for real as we suspect. Its prospects are perhaps enhanced when one considers a statistic released last year by
a market research organization: that the entire valuation of all the gold mining companies in the world total less than the valuation
the market places on one major blue chip stock, Pfizer. This, anyone would certainly contend, is an extreme in sentiment that
can turn long bear markets into bull markets. Gold appears to have completed a Five-Wave Elliott decline into the late August
low, completing the minimum requirements for the bear market from an Elliott Wave standpoint. Those familiar with the esoteric
details of the Wave Principle would recall that a Five-Wave decline can extend into a larger one, though, and that is the
possibility that would take gold to lower levels, likely below $250 toward $225. However, this has not yet occurred, and with
the gold stock sector soaring against the bear market downtrend in the general stock market, this possibility does not carry
odds above majority, in our opinion.

A significant move above $317 in spot gold is needed to break the market out and confirm a new bull phase. As I have
observed, a new bull market in gold could take gold hundreds of dollars higher, depending on many variables. A movement
back to the gold standard by some or all countries of the integrated global economy, for example, would lead to a
reaccumulation of gold by world central banks after years of dumping gold onto the market.

The XAU Gold/Silver Index is just beginning a bull market, as we have indicated is likely. Fibonacci resistance levels along the
way up are 74.00, 89.71, 101.81, 114.89, and 155.77, the latter of which is the 1996 peak. Even if this peak is not exceeded,
the gold stock sector, as measured by the XAU Index, is likely to triple before the bull phase is complete. Bull markets of this
type typically last years and, as a result, this is a long-term outlook and buy recommendation.

Silver is under completely different fundamentals than gold, but is still scheduled to participate in a multi-year bull market.
Additionally, bull market or not in the gold sector, silvers bearish Wave count from the early 1998 peak at $7.50 implies
another round of new lows, likely to the $4.15 area, before it is ready to embark in a bull market.

Source: The Global Market Strategist, P.O. Box 5309, Gainesville, GA 30504.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:06 - ID#31868)
Retired Soldier, Namaste' and a most Happy gulp and puff to you and yours...glad
to hear you are well and in good spirits...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:11 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re Sov's
What's the best quote you know lately on Sov's and where? Thanx, Charlie

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:13 - ID#119358)
@Honey, turn on the weather channel......
see if it's supposed to storm.........geeeeze, it's gettin' a little dark outside.....huh? OHMY!!! I think I'll step outside and give 'er a looksee....huh. ( door creaks ) Whoooooooooooa! There went my hat! Damn what a gust'o'wind! I paid eighteen dollars for dat' Yankee hat! Damnit!!! Hey, Lini'!!! come out here now!....somethin's brewin' babe.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:16 - ID#119358)
@Retired SOldier.........
may the gods continue to bless! vaya con dios!!!! salud!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:17 - ID#339274)
FYI,moved to 20 7/16

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:18 - ID#242262)
XAU is starting to regain some ground and it seems to me that volume is picking up a little. Maybe there's hope and we've seen the low at 11:15am .

Let's cross our fingers.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:21 - ID#31868)
STUDIO-R, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya from the Island that is Long...Hmmmm
dark clouds you say...perhaps it is a vision...the dark which is slowly creeping up on America...and as I write this trading has been halted on the NYSE...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:22 - ID#119358)
@I'ma drainin' Kash outta' Prudebtial........
like I sucked dat' rumsky outta' dat' half gallllooon of Ronnie Bacardi Saturday nite whilest hangin' with Jerry Lee. you shake my nerves and you rattle my brain..........salud!!! to all Kitcoistas!!!! screw all the rest.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:23 - ID#288466)
chas @ Sovereigns

Charlie -

I haven't priced the Sovereigns in a month or two - the last time I looked they were selling in the neighborhood of US$84 or $85 each ( for BU coins ) .

I understand that the market for these may be getting tight - so the price could be up around $90 by now - my last pricing information was from Coast-to-Coast Coins ( 800 ) -638-8869 who are typically are a little bit higher in price than some of the high volume dealers.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:24 - ID#147201)
Hey Everybody re Euro
What do you think would happen if the Euro falls into a bunch of blivits? This thing reminds me of road kill. From all international and extranational comments, it looks like a new sleek sports car- but the engine is a junk yard mess. Looking for comments. TIA, Charlie

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:26 - ID#242262)
tolerant1 - re. NYSE
They say it is because of an "equipment problem". Do you suppose it's the Year 2000 bug?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:27 - ID#371229)
@LGB.. ehh, now look here. You don't seem to understand. Your money is not in the savings and loan
its in Mr. Fatini's home! Have you forgotten those old shacks back in Potter's Field. What is going to take to just get you by. God bless you!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:27 - ID#350145)
gold price
i think we are bouncing along the bottom, in both gold and silver. i do not expect to see new lows. to me this is a time to accumulate on weakness ( stocks ) for a couple of reasons: i think we have seen the lows and tax loss selling thru dec will provide bargins. in response to the person who was puzzled by the slide in the majors with static gold prices. they always do that i.e. lead the metal up on a price rise and then if no follow through will slowly, or not so slowly, fall back. while i feel we have seen the lows i have no feeling at all for when metals may rise. as such i am playing mostly exploration, with options on majors covering a surprise rise in the metal.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:29 - ID#271125)
I hope this has not been posted before.Fiend's latest comments
For further reading I recommend this site to those who have not viewed it on a regular basis.

Fiend Commentary


Trap Door

A reader passed along a New York Times question and answer interview with

James Grant and sense it was what I had planned to write, I thought I

would present the bulk of it here laced with my own comments.

That Market Bottom Might Be a Trap Door

Q. Many people seem to think the stock market has seen its lows. You

don't agree?

A. If this were the bottom, it would be the most remarkable one

in history, one where the Standard & Poor's 500 index is trading at 25 times earnings. That is a valuation rarely achieved at the top of a market.

I think that this is a bear market rally. I would suppose that if the market gods were designing a bear market rally, they would make it look as irresistible as possible and would want as many participants as possible before opening the trap door.

The trailing P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is actually over 27 and with flat ( or worse ) earnings, I guess that the Bulls are looking for for the P/E

ratio to move into the 30s. I think that Grant hit the nail on the head.

There has been so many excesses in the past decade, it is not surprising

to see the market do its best to slaughter the Bulls and drag them along

until sentiment is finally broken.

Q. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates twice in a matter of

weeks, fears of a credit crunch and recession have diminished. Is

that an appropriate reaction?

A. The credit crisis may sound melodramatic, but over the last several months there has been a very severe bear market in credit of all kinds. And it should be seen in the context of the preceding bull market in credit, where it was freely, if not almost promiscuously,available.

There is no recession we know of right now, and yet we have had a credit crisis in this country, which in the postwar period is a rare if not unique occurrence. It makes you wonder what will happen to this institution of borrowing and lending if there is an actual deflation,or an actual recession.

If you look back at prior recessions and depressions, one common theme

is that we are always past the worst of it. Several months ago, no one

considered the possibility of a recession. Now some perceive that it is

possible but not likely given the Fed's recent rescue efforts. As the

economic situation continues to deteriorate, I'm starting to see a few

articles stating that even if there is a recession that it won't be severe.

As Grant was hinting at, there will come a point where the Fed's magical

rate cuts will not be able to stop a recession any more than they did for

the Japanese economy which is still floundering after seven years.

Q. But isn't it the Fed's job to take steps to prevent a credit


A. It has been the suppression of cycles that paradoxically has

created a lot of the volatility we have seen in the credit markets.

By succeeding in perpetuating the expansion, the Fed has failed in the sense that it has changed the behavior of people with money.

By saving Mexico a couple of years ago, the authorities changed

the way people view sovereign credit risk. Hence the surprise when

the Russian government defaulted. A visitor from Mars would not have been surprised that a country without money could not pay its

bills. But many were surprised, because they had come to expect that the integrity of the system will be defended.

By suppressing the volatility of the credit and business cycle,

by trying to head off price inflations and deflations, the Fed has

thrown a boomerang in the air, which is the risk tolerance of people who invest money.

The Fed ought to be in the business of central banking, not

central planning. Alan Greenspan ought to say that people who risk

money stand to lose a lot of it. That is in the nature of cycles and markets.

Once the dust has settled and the U.S. market and economy are sufficiently thrashed, I have a strong feeling that the duties of the Federal Reserve will be extensively revised at the least.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:33 - ID#350145)
OAK - if you are there
the northern miner is a canadian based newspaper, like the wall street journal - mostly just basic info. i have address if you need it. i can also give you stockwatch web site ( once again-just basic info ) . each one is about $100 per year. i also think one good guru is important- but most are lacking-i am being kind, so it is improtant to be careful.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:34 - ID#119358)
@T#1..............exhaling has been halted. yes.......
the end of all goldless mammals approacheth. the dark ages. yes. Hey Kev?...have ya' noticed how young and femaleous the speakin' heads that "talk" for the evil houses have become?.....da' good'o'bankers are unavailable fer, Hey Georgie, Tell dat' damn Insana I've had a death in da' familia. Apologize for me. And get Herbie down in legal to get his skinney butt up here! Hey!!! Send Abby over there if she's still able to talk!!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:36 - ID#254288)
Aurator @ Topiary and Bonsai Babee's

Their are those who practice the art trimming and training a tree into unnatural shapes and those who practice the art of triming the markets to fulfill their desired shape.
I like the Bonsai Babees better.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:40 - ID#298259)
What the hey....
Are all the quote services stuck?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:43 - ID#31868)
Walt, Namaste' and a gulp and puff to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmm...they are calling it
a glitch and WE ALL know what happened after Clintler called Asia's economic thrashing a betcha...but alas poor truth...we will never know...she is wearing a blindfold and is hiding a cigar on her person...or so I have heard...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:46 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya...Hmmmmmmmmm...yes...yes...
one would think that the "EXPERTS" should have at least passed puberty...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:47 - ID#271125)
Anyone heard why the NYSE "shut down"?
. Last quote up 41.2 and no word when back on line

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:47 - ID#350179)
Apropo of nothing (error message of the week)
Unknown error reading from pipe.

Too many puffs perhaps? ; )

Still waiting for an acceptable XAU signal ( looking at thursday 64 to 65 )

Cage Rattler
(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:47 - ID#33184)
The Dow Jones Average is up 41.20 points, but no shares are trading due to a technical ( read computer ) problem which occurred 15 minutes ago. The upmove in the Dow has lead the U.S. dollar higher crossing through 119.00 against the yen and 1.6550 against the mark.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:48 - ID#269409)
@ RJ.... Gold vs. Silver performance....Humility?
RJ, I thought you were way too quick to talk "humility" yesterday, on your Gold vs. Silver predictions re JD's post to you. JD arbitrarily picked 1/1/98 as a starting point to compare the performance of the two metals, and their ratio as opposed to today's price.

A much more valid and legitimate way to make the comparison, would be to look back at when you were ACTUALLY making strong short Gold, Long silver recommendations. I remember it was when I first found this forum. It was when I was thinking along smiliar lines. Mid summer, 1997..I remember it well because that's when I bought about 90% of my current physical silver an average "buy" price of $4.25 / Ounce. ( Bought almost all my silver in July, 97 )

At that time, July 97, Silver closed the month at $ it's at least made a modest gain from that level. Gold of course, closed that month at $324.00 and we know how IT'S done since.

Or we could ignore July and go back 12 months. Another common milestaone used to assess medium term performance. October 97, silver closed around $4.80...essentially where it is today...and Gold of course, was far higher than it is today, at again, $324.00. ( We don't EVEN want to talk about how badly Gold shares have done! )

I also recall QUITE clearly that prior to the Buffet bubble / burst in silver prices,in early 98, you changed your position on silver and stated that $6.00 silver was too high, you'd sell into it "all day", and it would eventually drop back to the $5.00 level or so.

In the MAIN RJ, your Silver calls and market analysis, taken in context as a whole, have been only SLIGHTLY less accurate than your Gold calls ( which have an accuracy rate second to none on this forum ) .

Don't be so quick to capitulate to someone's shallow, out of context, retrospective. Your overall record on these metals has been nothing short of amazing.

( But let's not talk Platinum eh!!!! )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:50 - ID#412172)
Two days worth of research up in smoke, Webbroker down, SI down, now Yahoo quotes down. Would've been some great trades too ( TMAR, ITWO ) but I won't trade if it looks like I'll get stuck on hold on the phone. The irony of it all is Kitco is still up. Way to go Bart!!
I need to upgrade my broker, any suggestions??

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:51 - ID#371229)
1 more & I am done. "Look George, you don't have to worry about that mean ole
bank examiner, all your friends have taken up a collection....see!!!!!!!!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:54 - ID#350179)
Dow has gone flatline
Brain damage sets in shortly.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 13:56 - ID#404312)

got out of gold last monday after thelower open.
actually went short for a day and picked up 3 bucks overnight. made some good money on bonds shorts.

started accumulating gold call options and plan to buy a whole lot more the next couple of days. this chart formation is extremely bullish looking to me--comparing it to silver chart in august '82. retracement should be over with possible sideways movement a couple days. headed for 310-320 before my dec 300calls expire in three weeks. if I get greedy I may buy a hundred. $120 today, $2000 in three weeks--may retire

I see silver just took a sharp jump--stops maybe?
still waiting a couple days to see if recent lows get taken out--doubt they will.
been watching paint dry--a little excitement after watching the pm for last week.

pardon me, the alarm just went off

1:56 silver at 4.99 gold 293.20

buy buy y'all

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:02 - ID#341261)
NYSE just stated that trading
will resume at 2:15 EST.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:05 - ID#254288)
Aurator @ Topiary and Bonsai Babee's....bad form, I'll never be a Bonsai man

There are those who practice the art trimming and
training a tree into unnatural shapes and those who
practice the art of triming and training the markets to fulfill a desired shape, to the tune of global misfortune.

I like the Bonsai Babees better.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:06 - ID#235231)
they will resume trading at 2:15 pm they say.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:09 - ID#246224)
BAM ! ! !
Like a bomb going off even in the midst of the turbulance we were riding through. You could hear it distinctly. The lights flickered briefly then went out. Emergencies came on as the pilot instructed us to prepare for landing ..

.. but we were still miles and miles away from the airport, supsended and falling ever so gradually to earth. You could feel the waves or disbelief crest and then become overwhelmed with a tight sense of 'Oh, God this can't be happening'. Like a wind blown through the whole cabin.

I looked out the window and saw the remains of the wing for the first time. My mouth dropped open and hung there for ever. Then the clouds swallowed the scene from view. We were falling more steeply now with a terrible pull to the right, down. The remaining engines were screaming quite high now.

I don't remember what happened after that.

Then I awoke.

The birds were chirping and my heart was jumping out of my chest. Trying to breath deeper than I could, I rolled to the right and fell out of bed. What a dream! I still couldn't breath. Went down stairs got some coffee and grabbed the paper off of the porch. Wet as usual.

Then I saw the headline: "MAJOR BANK BOMBS". Then I knew we only had a few moments before the lights began to flicker and the pilot began to talk about 'emergency landings' .. so far from the airport.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:14 - ID#35571)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:15 - ID#119358)
uhHuH, cappy. your dream was a gift from a friend. salud!!!!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:17 - ID#339274)
FYI Stop 20 1/2

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:21 - ID#194311)
How liquid are those stocks...futures.....options?
Trading halt for two hours....
could be fatal if you're living on the MARGIN!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:21 - ID#225283)
nyse trading halted for 59 minutes????

did someone forget to adjust the clocks??? tech problem?????

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:21 - ID#174239)
RJ: Platinum, lessons learned?
I agree completly with LGBs assesment of your sucess with Gold and Silver predictions. What went wrong with platinum?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:24 - ID#339274)
20 5/8

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:31 - ID#119358)
@the trap is set............KeeeeeeerrruncH!
anyone care for some teddy bear jerky? yumyum.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:34 - ID#71231)
Did goldbugs win the battle of the closing tick?
Looks like the final gold dump was followed by a buy. Will it hold?

Dave in CO
(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:36 - ID#229141)
My guess is that the NYSE was testing Y2K-modified software on a relatively low volume day. According to CNBC the last software problem shutdown was in December, 1995. Coincidentally and suspiciously, if I remember correctly, the market was poised for a major drop at the open that day. Anyone remember if that was the case?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:37 - ID#339274)
Got out 20 11/16

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:40 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check - Stock market crash update!
Another month of October is almost finished and as for the past several years, the worst has been predicted.

Of course, there will probably be a "crash" one day, but will those who follow the recommendations of the same "gurus" year after year for "hysteria", "panic" and "bloods in the streets" to develop in the months of October have any money left to take advantage of such an opportunity?

Is it a wise trading sheme to bet on something every year until it finally happens? What if it doesn't happen? And what if it only happens after 5, 10 or 20 years?

It's quite an experience to take the charts and look at where the stock market was at the beginning of October and where it is now.

Nothing is never "for sure" in the markets.

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 18:41
Copyright  1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It looks like the crash to DJIA 3000 has been delayed by a week or
two. Nonetheless, it's coming. I now estimate the height of the crash
will arrive the week of October 12-16.

Stay tuned to Kitco for the play-by-play.



Date: Sun Oct 04 1998 21:53
Crazytimes: Carlan's lunar study fits well with my research.
Carlan focuses on when crashes end. My study concentrates on
when they begin. They tend to start at the time of full-moons,
especially solar-eclipses, and they tend to end near new-moons.

In Europe and Asia, the present decline began 1 day after the
solar-eclipse in early September. The DJIA has held out 1
month longer than other markets around the globe. The full-
moon tomorrow should put the DJIA back into the bearish-phase
prevelent worldwide.

Carlan's study, then, suggests that between October 5th and
October 19th, there will be a tremendous global stock market

See this week's Barron's ( page 45 ) where I show how volume
enters into the picture.


Steve Puetz

Date: Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38
Nonetheless, the wave 5 down ( panic phase ) of the stock market
crash has now started. DJIA 3000 will be seen before the end of

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Date: Thu Sep 03 1998 12:01
The lunar-eclipse arrives this weekend. Anticipate super-large drops
in the DJIA next week and the following week.
I have never been as bearish on stocks as I am at this moment.

Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 17:22
Puetz ( Stock Market Crash Update ) ID#226307:
By the end of September 1998, I expect blood in the streets.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH ) ID#226307:
If the market is down sharply tomorrow or Monday, we may get a
bounce for a few days. By the end of September, however, it's
DJIA 3000 -- still another 5000 points lower yet.


Steve Puetz

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:41 - ID#246224)
Dreaming with my eyes wide open.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:50 - ID#350145)
silver pop
looks like silver just popped up. to me it has looked like a wedge all along, and it seemed it should pop up if we are on or near the bottom as i suspect. so far so good. we'll have to see if there is follow through.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:50 - ID#339274)
Test the lows
FWIW tomorrow first trading hour and a bounce

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:54 - ID#423380)
@Realistic--digging up bones!
When I read your posts, I envision a little man, sitting ( hiding ) , behind a
computer screen. Afraid to go out, you spend all your time holed up in
your tiny one bedroom apt.

I can see you at night, bragging to yourself, about how you showed those
Kitco guys whose boss. Yea you did it, your not afraid. BIG MAN!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:56 - ID#347457)
@Realistic on Educational reality check
Realistic, your posts are getting old. Do you really think that I need a site cop to tell me every minute what to believe? No, thank you, I have my own brain and opinions ( believe me they are not aligned with Puetz predictions ) .

You must be working for government. Big Brother watching for my well being.... trying to protect me  Give it a break I can make my own conclusions!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:57 - ID#31868)
for those of you looking for emergency heat I highly suggest a peek at the following

(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:58 - ID#24936)
Russian gold plan...

Russia looks to gold to help rouble

( Business Report, Jhb. )

MOSCOW- The Russian government said it

probably would not export any gold next year,

allowing the central bank to stockpile the metal,

boost reserves and raise confidence

in the rouble, which has plunged 60 percent in

two months.

John Disney
(Mon Oct 26 1998 14:58 - ID#24135)
shallow ??
for little leaky
RJ knows exactly what I speak of .. you
know little or nothing .. but keep trying ..
one day you may amount to something ..
then again .. maybe not.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:10 - ID#350179)
What are your analyses for the performance of XAU & POG - any time frame is O.K.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:11 - ID#119358)
@AllenO.usa........too few flew over the cuckoo nest........
you, jack'o'kee..g.. rare birdies of a feather, seeing the weather.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:11 - ID#423380)
Hope I don't lose points for improper grammar!
But that guy really pisses me off. I started typing, real fast, and just couldn't stop!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:12 - ID#31868)
no stove...try one of these babies as an emergency alternative...yup...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:13 - ID#257312)
EB Makes the Call

Silver up 12 cents today.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:18 - ID#31868)
pssssst....psssssst...psssssssssssssssssst...great silve buys at this time...shhhh...
CFB and FSR and veeeeery veeeeeeery quiet...tip..toe...tip..toe

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:19 - ID#246224)
Deflation of gold vis'a'vis dollar in depression (?)
Recently someone opined that gold price would be pummeled with other 'commodities' in the case of a deflationary depression. I would argue that this is not a real possibility from a historical perspective.

In the 1930's in the USA gold was made illegal for private ownership. The exchange rate was $20.67 per ounce was given for forfitted gold. Then over a year's time the "price" of gold was adjusted manipulated/dictated to =$35/oz ( after the confiscation ) . This in the midst of a great deflationary depression. The price went _UP_ by 70%.

Why? Because government was recapitalizing the financial system with cheaper dollars as measured by their convertability to gold, the anchor.

In the inflationary depression circa 1972 through 1982 in the USA the price of gold climbed from $35/oz to an average price of $450/oz ( 1290% ) .
Again we were seeing a situation where the pressure of excess creation of dollars was being 'released" by the rise in gold's price in dollars ( relatively speaking ) .

The moral of the story is this: government fiat money will only degrenerate in value against a standard such as gold. It does not matter what environment or mechanism is at work. The price of gold will go _UP_ in terms of dollars, pound or 'xyz'. This is not like a stock chart with a steady rise. It happens in abrupt jumps.

Some will begin to quote numbers perporting to show that gold hasn't done well as an investment and point to the recent decline in the gold price to show that gold is no longer the dog, but more like the dog's tail, and hence is not to be trusted.

My counter comment to this would be that we have seen periods of relative 'gold "price" stability' ( equilibriium price in fiat currency ) followed by abrupt revaluations which reflect the international community's realignment of the dominant currency to a more reasonable exchange rate to gold. The reason for the change is because of abuse of the dominant currency's ( pound/dollar ) availability ( printed to much, must return to a more accurate exchange rate ) .

This has happened twice in the past 100 years in the USA. 1930's and 1970's. The combined increase in gold price from $20.67 to $450 is a devaluation of the dollar from $1.00 to 4.6 ( a decrease of 95.4% ) .

My view is that the current price of gold does not so much reflect upon its instability but points out that we are in the throws of a great preliminary shift toward revaluation of the major currency, the US Dollar *A_G_A_I_N*. It will be a price increase which will attempt to realign the number of available dollars ( this time in terms of promises to pay - bonds ) to the amount of available financial system gold.

We can look at the debt figures for the US government as a gauge to understand the fundamental revision ratio. In the late 1970's there was about $500 Billion of outstanding federal debt. Now there is $5.8 TRILLION. This is 1160% greater than that time. I think this is a baseline: 1100% increase in the price of gold. If the Euro comes on line to challenge the dollar's dominance then we could be looking at a much greater depreciation of the dollars exchange rate for gold.

GOLD @ US$ 3,300 per ounce.

The view from here, anyway.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:19 - ID#252150)
Realistic@Peutz's mkt calls. Nobody's perfect. He just needs a little more
practice with the astrology--WHICH HE DOES'NT EVEN BELIEVE IN.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:22 - ID#341227)
@REALISTIC...yes, give us some forecasts...
...specific forecasts pertaining to equities, bonds, gold, silver, and plat over the remainder of the year. Also, provide us your rationale for such prognostications.

To date, you have failed to respond to these requests. In fact, you have never responded to such requests.

Since many here are day traders, they would certainly appreciate your predictions.

It does not seem fair that you can constantly criticize and belittle other forecasters while avoiding predictions of your own.

We are ALL waiting to hear your omnisicent thoughts.



(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:24 - ID#219363)
Wanted to make a serious response to what you wrote. I do in fact believe it's a good investment to bet on a crash, and to do it over and over again when the pattern looks good and there's bad news out there. Reason is that it doesn't happen that often, this is actually my first time betting on a crash, didn't do it last year because the environment didn't seem good enough for it to happen. But let's say you did jump the gun and bet on it every year during a bull run - that means you would have bet on it about ten times during this bull run. Let's say you did it ten times and it came through for you on the last try, and let's say you gambled 1000 bucks every time. You'd be out 9000 bucks up until now, and if this were the time you got lucky, you'd likely see 30 times your investment during a crash ( using equity PUT options ) , or about 30000 bucks. To me, that's a good bet. Crashes can't be predicted with certainty, but they have, and do, happen. It's worth a little gambling money for this folk. If it doesn't crash this year, great, I'll bet on it again when circumstances look suspect, and again, and again, it's worth the stretch. Betting on a crash, you don't have to pick the right horse, you just have to guess which day the race is - and I'm seeing a lot of trailers over at the track, they're shipping in stockpiles of grass and straw, and the short skinny guys are getting dressed up.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:24 - ID#280214)
Snipped from the net
Good Monday morning all! This was posted to another group. Read it to start
the week out in the proper perspective. And no, I did not write it.

p.s. The future belongs to those who are prepared for it.


This message was given to us by a programmer who recently quit a major
Y2K compliance project for the government. He wishes to remain
anonymous. - J.J.

Terms of Surrender

ATTENTION Federal Government ( and others as well ) :

Well, well... After months of us being called names from "chicken
little" to "doomsday alarmists," William Jefferson Clinton has finally
addressed the Y2K problem and the potential damage that could occur on
or before New Year's Day, 2000. This means that you ( the government )
have finally admitted your weakness - your Achilles heel. With that
in mind, we think now is the time for all of us to sit down and have
a little chat.

Computer experts have stated that virtually every programmer available
is in use today, and you still need 500,000 to 750,000 programmers to
repair the problems - just here in the US. Since many of these
computers use old languages ( FORTRAN, COBOL, BASIC, etc. ) , you are
under the impression that the original programmers are long gone. It
is this false impression you have that enables us to offer you the
Terms of your Surrender to the American public. But remember, this
olive branch we offer - this agreement, will be pulled off the table
on December 31, 1998. It's your choice. First, a little background:

You figured that since those old mainframes that were built in the
50s, 60s, and 70s they were programmed by people who have long since
retired. At least that's what you said publicly. But the fact is,
many of those same mainframes were upgraded since then. Remember the
Reagan Revolution? Yes, all the young corporate raiders - the ones
that re-tooled the military, and helped build all those modern
skyscrapers. Didn't they also program ( and re-program ) many of those
machines for an ever expanding government? Where are they?

Admit it. Most of the folks who programmed those mainframes in the
past have not retired, died, or disappeared. Just use the math. Most
of those old mainframe programmers can't be more than 55 today. But
where are they? Who are they?

They are the people who served you breakfast in that greasy spoon
on your way to work this morning. The guy who shined your shoes. That
janitor you saw the other day. That old cab driver who took you to
the airport. The middle aged woman behind the ticket counter. The
guy pumping gas at that rural truck stop. The truck driver himself.
Maybe that right-wing talk show host. Some are in jail for crimes
without victims - crimes against you, the government. The people
you called names for daring to speak out against government
atrocities. The people that have been talking about this potential
problem for almost 20 years. The people who get on the internet and
write letters like this.

By now, a light bulb has probably gone off in your head. "Have we been
set up?", "Hoodwinked?" The answer is, no. You haven't. Yes, we remember
those old languages. Some of us even have the source books. You see,
you made us sit there and "vegetate" in front of that old key-punch
machine or keyboard, and then took all the credit for the new
innovations, while taxing us into involuntary servitude. So, we found
better things to do with our lives. We dropped out. Of course, we
realize now that the future of the world economy and government as we
know it is in peril. You're probably wondering why haven't we told
you this earlier and come to the rescue?

ANSWER: We don't want to.

If crashing the entire world economy is what it takes to bring down
agencies like the IRS, FBI, FEMA, and the EPA then so be it. We know
we can never really beat you by force. You think we don't know that
helping you solve your computer problem would only place heavier
yokes on us down the road? Didn't you consider that when you hired
those "geeks" to fix your problems? Nope. You were so desperate to
fix the problem, you never bother to ask the person, "Say, how do
you feel about big government, anyway? How do your parents feel
about it?" You figured throwing money ( our money ) at the problem
would be the cure. The only guarantee you have that your Y2K bug
is cured is "our word on it." Now, you're in a panic mode. You're
probably thinking, "Gee, what if one ( or more ) of those Y2K computer
repair people are really..."

Don't say it. We know what you're thinking. And besides, it's too

Don't even try and blame us for it. There's no conspiracy here.
Nobody "formed an agreement" to screw up your systems. In fact many
of us tried to tell you. But we were written off as alarmists. Smarty
pants. Making excuses for not doing our jobs. You pushed us. All you
wanted was results. Meet the deadline. Meet the deadline. Save
memory space. Worry about the other problems later. By then there
would be some other suckers to enslave. Sorry, but we're all slaved

You're hoping ( and looking ) for a "silver bullet." Well, there is a
silver bullet. In fact, we ARE the silver bullet. We know the systems.
We know the codes. And with a little time, we can fix the problem.
But in order to gain our assistance, you must first meet the
following terms:



We want the 16th amendment, and all laws passed thereto, repealed.
This means ALL of Title 26 of the US code. That will include all
those stupid tax and gun laws.


We want a constitutional amendment passed removing the phrases,
"regulate interstate commerce," and "promote the general welfare"
removed from the constitution. You've perverted their true meaning
for far too long.


Repeal the 17th amendment. We want our states to have the ability
to recall treasonous Senators whenever we see fit.


All agencies will be tested for its justifiable existence under the
9th and 10 amendments. It not, all employees of said agency must be
terminated from employment - without compensation. Don't worry,
they'll find other jobs. They can grow the food you've told farmers
not to grow. They can make the natural medicine that the FDA has
regulated out of existence. They can manufacture the products you've
farmed off to third world countries. There will be plenty of work
available. It's called a "free market."


Give up the land holdings. NOW. No more harassing farmers for
grazing rights. No more wetlands grabbing. Scrap all the
"biodiversity" regions. No more kicking people off "public" land.
If you need land for the military, fine. But that's about it.
Anything else goes private. Period.


We want you out of our paychecks, out of our churches, out of our
medicine cabinets, out of our homes, out of the U.N. and of course -
OFF the internet!


Every potential juror in every court must be told they have the
right to not only judge the facts, but the law itself - no matter
what the judge says. They will NOT be held in contempt for making a


All political prisoners ( US citizens charged with crimes against
government -- IRS, drug, gun, etc. ) are to receive amnesty. That's
about 75% of the federal inmate population.


All federal employees, agents, and officers who have committed
violent crimes against U.S. citizens, who have committed High
Treason, shall be tried according to the law - in state courts.


Or fix these problems yourself.

We know this is a tall order, and you probably won't agree to any of
it. In fact, you'll probably never admit that you even read this. But
we know you are monitoring our communications. So here's some little
secrets that will help motivate your decision.

Read the news stories about programmers who have quit and are moving
to the hills? And all those naval officers who are quitting? And all
of those pilots? And all of those doctors?

They are among the thousands ( probably millions ) joining us in our
rural retreats. We've got the bibles, the beans, the bandages, the
bullets -- and the brains. And you can't have them. I'm sure your
federal snitches have given you numerous reports of people who simply
won't file their tax returns next year. They're probably doing the
same thing. Why bother? You'll have no way of counting it, anyway.
Good luck trying to spend billions to fix the Y2K problem with only
millions ( or thousands ) to pay for it. Nobody told us to do it. We've
made up our own minds. We would rather starve than take your national
ID cards. We would rather die than take a mark on our forehead or
hands. The tobacco companies won't bail you out. The firearms
manufacturers won't bail you out. The Chinese won't bail you out.
And don't be surprised to see people closing out all those IRAs,
401k's and mutual fund accounts by the middle of next year. We'll
need the cash for those last few bits of survival gear. Next year,
you will be on your own.

Don't bother having CNN and the AP lie to us and say that you've
fixed the problem. We won't believe it. We know the programmers. We
are the programmers. We are the silver bullet. And we have absolutely
no desire to repair the problem no matter how many federal reserve
notes you print out. We will watch from afar - from a safe distance.
We will survive. We will say a prayer for you, and the poor slobs
who supported you, as they lose what little grip they have on
civilized life. You will reap what you have sewn. Economics chaos,
food shortages, disease, death and destruction will take over the
cities. You will be powerless to stop it. And we will not fire a
shot to make it happen. Some cities will indeed end in flames -
flames that will light a path to our posterity's freedom. Ugly
scenario, isn't it?

Surrender now. None of us will be entertained by watching you wither
up and die. What a sobering way to ring in the next millennium. But it
won't be our problem. It's is not our duty to help you. We'll have
the unfortunate duty of properly disposing of your rotting corpses.
Agree to our terms, and some of us - a few of us, may agree to help
you in return.

So, think about it. Also think about what happened recently in
Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, North Korea, and other countries
now undergoing economic and societal meltdown. Go ask them how well
their computers worked to help save them. Remember who sold them to
them ( I'm sure they do ) . And take a look at history: No great nation
has ever fallen from a force of arms, but from an unwillingless of
its citizenry to support it.

If you would like more insight on this phenomenon, read Atlas
Shrugged, by Ayn Rand. It was written in the 40's. It has sold
more copies than anything but the Bible ( including your little Red
Book ) and it's still available in major book stores everywhere. For
those of you who can't read ( i.e. recent public school graduates ) ,
you can find it on audiocassette.

There will be no IMF around when it happens nor will there be any
taxpayers left to foot the bill. Think about these terms, and make
a decision. But remember, the clock is ticking ( no pun intended ) .

We'll be watching C-SPAN, awaiting your decision,

John Q. Public - We are everywhere.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:25 - ID#31868)
Allen, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
you and I must have the same prescription lenses cause that is the view I have as well...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:27 - ID#341227)
@REALISTIC...the forum is waiting...
...yet you continue to avoid responding to our requests.

What are your specific predictions with respect to gold, silver, plat, general equities, and bonds for the remainder of the year?

Why are you so afraid to register your opinion as many other posters have done here on this forum?



Gold Dancer
(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:30 - ID#377196)
Good post. What do you think of the following: Instead of the
price of gold going to $3300 the US gov't removes a zero. An across the
board write dowm of the debts. Then the price of gold is $330 an oz.

This is what mexico does. And Russia. Just remove some zeros.

I have noticed that Russia had to go thru hell before they decided
to try gold.

Do you think the US will have to go thru the same thing? Over
a few years or do you think that it will be done "overnight" like I
do? I call it "the big adjustment".

Thanks, GD

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:30 - ID#371229)
name that tune... "If you go out to the woods today, Your sure of a big surprise
'cause every bear that ever there was will be gathered there for certain.
For tommorrow is the day of the teddy bear's picnic!

joey two-cents
(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:32 - ID#254187)
My friend at LTCM says the rumours of Buffet buying them appear to be true. A lot of the banks and investment houses saying they have limited exposure and that they are almost fully collateralized with LT, are not. He gave Lehman Bros., who claims their exposure is $ 50M, as an example. Also said a bunch of employees ( traders mostly ) are getting the axe this week regardless of what Buffett does.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:34 - ID#30345)
@allen and Tolerant1
Yes this is true, but the average person these days can't remember gold and silver as money ( they think of it as jewelry material ) . They need to be re-educated... Ihis training will be forthcomming, IMO. Go gold.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:42 - ID#269409)
@ JD
Keep jerkin yer meat when you have no rational response JD. After's the one thing you're good at.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:42 - ID#254288)
Is the Music stopping?

Why would Buffet risk Berkshire Hathaway on a can of worms like LTCM?
Could it be that the end is near for the markets of which much of Berkshire's investment is in and the choices are limited?
Then what about the GS denial of $900 million loses in one month.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:48 - ID#246224)
Might also add this
Gold has never lost its role as the standard of quality by its limited quantity, limited production and other characteristics and its history as THE universal and time independent money. You would want to use gold to bet against your local currency's stability. For small countries this is a short to mid term play. For large countries and the dominant currency it is a mid to long term play.

There will always be downward revaluations of currencies to gold. It will always be the depreciation of 'currency' to its value in gold. It may happen regularly in such as cases as Brazil and Turkey. Or it could happen in jumps such as the case with England and the USA.

History assignment: find a currency which, over time, has gotten more valuable then gold itself as a consistent characteristic of that same currency. I'm not talking about looking at this like a stock chart, I'm talking about as a function of a system of exchange.

Name one fiat currency that over its life time has gotten consistently more valuable in its realationship to gold.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:51 - ID#31868)
longj, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the fastest human leaning curve can be found
in the split second re-education which occurs when money is involved...oh yeah...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:51 - ID#269409)
@ request for Realistic's market calls
Gee F, I don't think Realistic will answer your queries. Let me explain why. Realistic is an investor. He does give his take on the markets ocassionally with an investor's perspective.

I believe Realistic is also wise enough to realize that only two categories of folks will give vast, broad, detailed prognostications in all the marketplaces of which you speak.

The FIRST category, would be the expert economic analysts, and inside market players with extensive detailed knowledge, and hopefully for them, a decent track record of success.

The SECOND category of prognosticators would be, well, foolish pretenders. A group of FOOLS who turn out to be perpetually wrong in the majority of their market calls, and analysis. Hmmm, I wonder which camp you and Puetz fit into? I know Realistic belongs in neither........

(Mon Oct 26 1998 15:58 - ID#246224)
T1, GD, longj
Great view ain't it? I do believe we will see this change together, yes? Yes.

T1 - If'n yer stop smoken them there CiGars, then yer may live ta see it, mate!;- ) It will be one fine day.

GD - As to the mechanism I do not speculate. It could come from any and every quarter. Could be the oil thingie. I dunno.

longj - I think these things are handed down, not bid up. "investor" demand is, to my thinking, not part of the equation in terms of where these things are done..higher elevations and all that. Then 'peoplo' see it all and run for the gold .. as do all Olympic athletes.

Y2k-ness may intervene, and surely will not bring GREATER confidence. In fact one might argue the opposite. But who, me? NAHHHHH! Yes! Then the powers will demand cash and carry for a while, eh? But will the cash be paper or gold? Your guess. But I can bet I can read yer mind ( at least I can hear the gears turning ) .

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:03 - ID#246224)
Why do you keep being nasty? The short, crude remarks do nothing but offend. Let's try to keep it clean here as in the past others have complained about the young being exposed to vulgarities in an unneccessary way. TIA! Onward Xtian Soldier

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:06 - ID#246224)
joey 2
Keep the insider views a'comin' fella. We love it. Short Buffett. A very consistent thing ( or is he tall, I can't remember ) .

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:08 - ID#30345)
@allen and Tolerant1
The visible debasement of this nations currency has been stagnant for so long that the majority of people do not remember seeing gold and silver bearing money in commerce. That being said, the financial sector is the only teacher left for these people ( to re-establish the mental linkage between these elite, under-priced commodities and money ) . The political-financial complex cannot complete this education until they are poised to exploit the revaluation of these commodities to the masses. Either they will strip the average person's ability to purchase these commodities before revaluaton, and revalue them ( deflation ) . Or they will unload the vast quanties of fiat to purchase the commodities ( inflation ) . Personally, I feel they are doing both, and are now in the midst of purchasing gold with a steady ( at price ) acquisition to be followed by a sudden inflationary burst. Let's just hope they don't blowit on the defationary side or it will be painful for us all.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:09 - ID#269409)
@ Allen......Insults and stuff
Point taken Allen, but the latest exchange between myself and the other one, was ONCE again precipitated by him, not I. In response to a post of mine that had nothing to do with him ( but was an opinion on middle East politics and the players thereof... )

Every now and then when he's bored, and completely unrpovoked by me...he starts the name calling Gritty Bum stuff, and intentional pejoratives..again, unprovoked by me ..... The man initiates first etiquette violation....and while I know I should ignore same ( and usually do the first 2 or 3 times he "baits" ) ........

I seem to eventually succumb to his desire for attention from me.

My apologies to the forum for being so undisciplined...we don't need another food fight...not on a Monday! After all...silver's UP today and all is well!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:13 - ID#254288)
Anticipating a Disney response that will have me

PIMP, peeing in my pants.
The comedy hour is always better than moonwalks, y2k or harassing newsletter writers.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:16 - ID#280215)
I'm confused. Didn't EB say Friday that silver was primed to tank? Have not had much time today to log in. Did he change it today?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:19 - ID#246224)
Somebody else's money
When these hedge funds borrowed and leveraged their way to oblivion they left a string of outstanding contracts. They were really 'managers' of other people's money: insurance companies, banks, governments, etc. These moneies were aggregated into huge banking operations from which the hedge funds 'borrowed' and leveraged. The positions themselves are vast .. and so is the amount of money that was lent out to establish those positions. At some point someone's money was used to take a 100% funded position to the tune of US$1.25 TRILLION in the case of ONE company. The control was relinquished to the hedge fund using 'collateral' of mere % points.

If these funds have screwed up, as we all know they have, then what this amounts to is that these banks are now the proud owners of .. every imaginable, convoluted and completely bizzare contracts and shares and bonds with fifteen ways to midnight tangled hedge positions on each position - spaghetti. The very antithesis of conservation banking practice.

All this at a market bubble top with the world going to hell in a hand basket. And they are losing oceans of money every day.

Can you spell C_A_P_I_T_A_L E_V_A_P_O_R_A_T_I_O_N? Of course you can!

This makes the Japanese banks look brilliant by comparison. Until the lights go out. We have not seen the end of this thing.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:21 - ID#176200)
Y2K. Squirril et all. They now have the fix in place! Silver Bullet!
Or should I say welfare Bullet! Saw a spot on tv regarding the latest
federal program to combat the Y2K problem. They have recruited welfare
reciptients who were able to pass a battery of tests and put them through
a crash Cobol programming course that took 16 weeks.

I would bet the training went like this: "Everywhere you see 00 replace it with 2000" Problem solved.

They reported that 45 people completed the training and 6 had found jobs.
I laughed so hard for a hour and I am sore today from it!

We are saved!

Regards, O.L.

And of course, Not speaking for my employer. ( not even )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:23 - ID#252391)
Fairly quiet here
Rather quiet here today. I use that as an indicator. It is especially relevant in view of the jump in silver and the come back in PT and PD which could have broken down today but didn't.

How about those oil service companies. AM I sick - VRC up 20% in one day up 100% in 10 days. I'm moving some of my mental and monetary concentration away from gold to these other sectors that are performing.
Still waiting to buy more of my favorites HGMCY and SWC. The later firmed up nicely at the close on good volumn.

PAASF unchange - tax loss selling using the strength to liquidate?? We will see if silver's move is more than a one day wonder.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:24 - ID#246224)
OK. I understand you are trying to keep things clear. Thank you. What can we do together to work on this?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:25 - ID#432130)
I made a big investment decision today...
... ( Long story short ) : I am convinced that the government intervenes in the market much more than Fed interest rate cuts. I think its all a matter of "borrowing from Peter to pay Paul" and it cannot last in the long term, but I think they will be able to hold the market until at least next Spring.

In the mean time I had a large investment in BEARX. BEARX essentially "bets" on the continuation of "Bear market performance". When the market goes down, it goes up and visa versa. It didnt work that way last Friday and I think BEARX will perform erraticly at best. It bet on the wrong horse, ( and so did I ) . I sold my entire position in BEARX today at a "break even" return.

I also sold my silver fund shares in STSLX at a profit because although I am certain that silver will take off at about the time gold ( finally ) does, I think it will test its scary lows first. I dont want to hang around for that.

I just thought I'd share my very important financial decision with you all : )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:26 - ID#246224)
John Disney
We have noticed that you tend to jab first. Can you please do something OTHER than that? Seems like you like a good fist fight on a regular basis with certain targets who are not your favorites here.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:30 - ID#43349)
Selling out?

BLOCK TRADE - Homestake Mining 113,000
Reuters Story - October 26, 1998 16:22
at 10-3/4, off 3/5, crossed by Salomon Smith Barney

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:30 - ID#269409)
@ Allen
We need YOU at the middle East peace talks Allen! "WHat can we do?" you sais to improve on this. Well, I got to contemplating deeper...and you're correct. I should hold to a higher standard than I have been and put "ego" aside. Pride and ego do not bring out the best in us do they? apology to you JD for being offensive ....toward you personally or toward anyone of a political persuasion you support.

OK, I shall throw pie no more today.

Thanks Allen, for the exhortation and reminding me of who I am. I forget WAT too often! Especially here at Kitco! ( It's tough being the outsider on Gold related issues ya know!..but that's no excuse... I know I come off as an arrogant SOB... gotta find a way to refine the humorous barbs without offending! )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:31 - ID#343171)
Disney fist fights?
I thought he was in to aikido? narry a punch thrown, not necessary.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:34 - ID#246224)
Good post. Yes, I think they have golas, but maybe not a tight enough grip on the wheel. We shall see.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:35 - ID#219363)
Curious how you're playing all this, how you expect it to wash out.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:35 - ID#269409)
Frenetic flight to quality subsided
Monday October 26, 4:18 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

US CREDIT OUTLOOK- Volatility, consumer confidence

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. government securities market could see more bumpy
trading on Tuesday, but it is not likely to forge any new direction.

Limiting the downside is the market's view that Federal Reserve monetary policy will be relatively accommodative.

But several factors could restrain the upside. First and foremost is the continued evaporation of some of the flight to quality bid as
other markets stabilize.

Recently, the stock market has been in the plus column more often than not. On Monday, it finished mixed.

Better investor appetite for other fixed-income securities like investment grade corporates and mortgage-backed securities was also
providing a little more competition for the Treasury market, analysts said.

``We've had a little more orderliness in bond markets in the past week,'' said Mickey Levy, chief financial economist at
NationsBanc Montgomery Securities. ``Corporate spreads have narrowed. A lot of the early frenetic flight to quality and
deleveraging has subsided.''

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:37 - ID#43349)
Rattlesnakes in the bond market

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:38 - ID#246224)
John D,
you have an apology awaiting your reply @ 16:30. Can you deal with that? TIA. Onward!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:39 - ID#389387)
@Open-Loop, NO WAY!
I can just see it now ...

Mr. Jones at his new "job" at HCFA.
"Well lessee heaah. Oh yes I just put in my SSN and...Yes, that's me, mister Jones. Oh lookee here. Some zeros by them lonesome. I'll just adjust them to the correct value. There that wasn't so hard. On to auntie Jayne.."

Weeks later in the mail comes the "adjustment" check for $2000.00 for a previously denied claim. Now that wasn't so hard, was it?

Next week: Mr. Jones helps out on the Bradley fighting vehicle fire control system.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:39 - ID#269409)
@ CoolJing...Akaido
It was Allen that first suggested this martial arts approach...a couple times past in a previously similar is Allen who seems to be master of this art. He should be a negotiator and peace broker in world conflicts. He also has a substantial spiritual force behind him...and avails himself of it better than some of the rest of us his credit.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:40 - ID#242265)
@jims - your 16:23
I know this doesn't have anything to do with the price of gold, but since you brought it up - I've been watching those oil service stocks as well during the past couple of days ( RIG, DO, HAL, WFT! etc. ) They are just going through the roof and I can't figure out why. The major oil companies on the other hand look rather weak, don't they?

Do you have any idea what's going on? Anybody out there?
Thanx, Walt

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:42 - ID#246224)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:45 - ID#350145)
Envy - 1524
that was a good piece envy. i use that approach all the time. and your right you couldn't pick a better time then right now. in fact, for just about anything. i, in fact need to do more diversifying. i have been a bit myopic with re to mining shares. but i do have some wonderful long term wt.s on a major mining co, at the money, which were real cheap. if gold does surprise me and make any kind of jump- i can do my future trading from an island in the south seas. i was lucky and shorted the 87 crash, however i shorted hitachi which actually went down less than the dow. i bought something like 80 puts for a buck and sold for$10, but if I had bought the $60 - they also went to $10 - 60 times your money.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:52 - ID#316256)
All my PMs were down today, except RYO. Anyone heard anything? This stock is sometimes a good leading indicator.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:52 - ID#412286)
Any thoughts on this one. Has been performing well ie good volume on up days ie positive OBV B in IBD on the Accumulation scale. New mine is up and running and if company refinances its debt it could be a real winner. My broker is looking further into it. Any thoughts.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:54 - ID#219363)
Wow, someone who actually shorted '87. Would love to hear more details, tell us a story uncle Mole *grin*. Seriously, I'm very interested in any suggestions, advice, and/or general thoughts you might have on the subject, especially if they don't agree with my thinking.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 16:55 - ID#316256)
ROR, Wow we were both thinking about RYO at the same time. Do do doo ( Theme song from the Twilight Zone )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:00 - ID#412286)
My guess is that since they are now a low cost producer they are on the way to a deal which will reduce their finance costs. This may be why the stock is showing relative strength, the price action is beginning to signal that good news may soon be here IMVHO. Note recent insider buying. Also Kemess Mine is operating as advertised which removes one big uncertainty. If they can restructure their debt then this company has a winning management and IMVHO is undervalued.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:04 - ID#316256)

I agree with you. They do have a lot of debt, but capitol costs have come down, and I'm sure the Lady Witte will find new cheap money that improves cash flow and earnings. If we could get gold moving up this could be a big winner. Small winner without gold moving up.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:05 - ID#350179)
Russia says it can't repay foreign debt due in 1999

Russia's government will owe $17.5 billion in foreign debt next year but won't have the hard currency needed to pay it, said Alexander Zhukov, head of parliament's budget committee.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:10 - ID#412286)
My gut tells me Ms. Witte already has started cooking the necessary Financial Stew ie IMHO something is happening now. If she succeeds it will be major as they have many other excellent opportunities and now they have the track record of bringing a big project like Kemess to a successful conclusion under the most adverse circumstances. They will get more of a benefit of the doubt as to new projects due to their experience and demonstrated ability. This is especially true if the gold mkt gets better. The Namosi property in Fiji looks to provide another excellent opportunity.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:11 - ID#254288)
Some Good News for a Change

Does anyone recall what INCO paid Diamond Field's for the Voisey Bay Interest?
I think it was well over one billion dollars, if so Franco and Euro Nevada getting a 25.4% interest in the delineated Voisey Bay orebody for $50.4 million seems to be another great deal for them.
A while back I recall reading that some big London or SA Mining Houses were stalking INCO who is being effected by low nickel/copper prices; with Franco and Euro involved I hope that this worry will be over.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:15 - ID#269409)
Ebay...up 47% today!
Yikes...47% in ONE DAY!

Must be the increase in all the Gold and silver coin auctions they've been having!

( I've availed myself of a few from time to time..mostly as a wouldn't BELIEVE what some folks are willing to pay lately! ) miss the action in whatever net stock is next.....

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:15 - ID#71231)
I got in during the plunge because of this.

Somewhat similar story with ALTA. Bigger version of same theme with HGMCY, GGO. GGO a little more complicated because they just stopped using the old low gold content ore they had mined before.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:19 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.83. The 233 day moving average is 28.82

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:19 - ID#269409)
@ MM...Russia's debt
You don't think they'll sell GOLD to pay off some of that foreign debt do you? If they pay it off in inflated Roubles, they'll never be able to stabilize their currency or attract future foreign investment...a real dil-em-na

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:21 - ID#356379)
Hecla Mining
LSteve, ROY had some company on the upside. Hecla posted a small gain late in the session. The pennant formation in it's price chart predicts a sudden move. It's a coin toss which way. UP, I hope.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:21 - ID#229207)
Holding lenders responsible for stupid loans? What a novel idea!
Emerging debt down, Brazil and China risks eyed

``Unless there is an explicit sovereign obligation, the Chinese authorities are saying investors will have to accept the consequences of their lending decisions,'' Trebat said.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:22 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .236. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
HK government has profit of US$19 billion (24%) as result of stock market intervention

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:28 - ID#229207)
Looks like the commies are the ones practicing responsible capitalism
Who woulda thunk it.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:35 - ID#26793)
Russian gold coin plan called "Jurrasic" in this "age of plastic credit cards"

Bully Beef
(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:36 - ID#259282)
I am no expert on RYO I just wanted to say ...roughly ...what I do know.
They aren't very good employers.I have an ....a...a... aquaintence ( sp ) who... well....was not really ( a distant relative who was convicted for blowing up one of their mines in Yellowknife N.W.T.and killing innocent people but non-union employee ( read scabs if you are union ) who worked for them. There was incredibly bad will up there and it was not just labour's fault but everyones ... even the town. It is not clear, but anyone who has lived in the isolation of the NORTH would understand.The chairman of RYO is as tough as women come. That is tough.Rather than a peaceful solution, things got out of hand . This along with incredible debt and working against all odds yet not shut down yet. From a labour perspective , I don't like the shares. From a hard nosed unethical business point of view it would be a challenging gamble.People say that Kemess mine produces gold and copper very cheaply.I really don't know. You have to remember the British Columbian Government has baileed them out because they are big employers. Who Knows?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:41 - ID#248180)
Golden Ruble
Russia to Boost Gold Reserves by Ruble Issue

MOSCOW, Oct. 26, 1998 -- ( Agence France Presse ) Russia is to boost its central bank gold reserves by 50 tonnes by printing 8 billion rubles ( $475 million ) , Deputy Finance Minister German Kuznetsov announced Friday.

The move, which will involve the bank using the money to buy gold certificates from the Gokhran institute that manages the country's reserves, "will not provoke any panic or any price rises," said Kuznetsov, who is also the chief of Gokhran.

An agreement between the two bodies could be signed Monday or Tuesday, he said.

The terms would see the certificates swapped for the 50 tonnes of gold next year. Gokhran will pass the money from the sale on to the gold mining industry.

The Russian central bank currently has 500 tonnes of the precious metal. Its total gold and foreign currency reserves are worth $13.1 billion. Kuznetsov said "it is much more honest to proceed in this way than have a money issue based on nothing."

Russian authorities have recently hinted that they may use gold reserves to shore up the sagging ruble, either by linking future money issues to the metal or striking coins literally worth their weight in gold.

"Gold is the last resort of this country in case of a fall in oil prices or other economic cataclysm," the deputy minister said. "It's better to issue gold coins than rubles which are backed up by nothing."

Foreign analysts believe any attempt to issue money made of gold will founder against the realities of international trade. (  ( c ) 1998 Agence France Presse )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:41 - ID#229207)
Yes, you too can know how it feels to be an IBM customer getting a Y2K pitch from an IBM sales guy
To see the next slide, just increment the last number in this URL ( e.g., imsy2k1.htm, imsy2k2.htm, imsy2k3.htm, etc. )

Have fun!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:42 - ID#316256)
Gold found under floor!

A pot of gold was uncovered this week during excavations at an ancient site, on the
outskirts of Beit She'an. Archaeologists found a large ceramic jug containing 200-400
gold coins, weighing about one kilogram, and all in virtually mint condition. In the days
of the California "Gold Rush," it would have been called hitting pay dirt. The
archaeologists, however, were more excited about the historical aspect of the
discovery, rather than the intrinsic value of the coins.

The jug was discovered under the floor and close to one of the walls of a large building
uncovered during a rescue excavation by the Antiquities Ofer Sion, director of the dig,
said the excavations had started four months ago and had revealed the remains of an
exclusive housing area outside the walls of the ancient Roman and Byzantine city of
Beit She'an. Sion said it appeared to have been a wealthy district judging by the
architecture, the size of the buildings, and the quality of relics that the excavations had

"The coins, which date from the middle to-late Byzantine period, around the 6th and
possibly 7th century CE, were found in a jug that had been put under the floor of one
of the rooms in the building. All the coins are in very good condition.

"It seems that the owner had put the coins under the floor as a temporary hiding place
with the intention, of course, of coming back to collect them. What happened and why
he didn't come back and why the coins were left there for us to find later is a mystery,
which is likely to remain unsolved. "You don't find a treasure trove of so many gold
coins like this every day. It's a once in a lifetime discovery and therefore exciting, even
for veteran archaeologists."

Sion said he could not guess the value of the gold coins at today's prices or what they
would have been worth at the time. "It would have been a great deal of money. All I
can say is that the owner would have been a rich person," he said. Antiquities
Authority officials said the dig would continue for another two or three months and, if
possible, some of the remains of the Byzantine housing quarter will be preserved,
alongside the hostel. ( Jerusalem Post )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:42 - ID#340262)
Which Way?
I don't have any Idea which way things are going with any certainty - I had some GTC orders in some gold shares filled today about 80 % of order filled - I have a short position on Amex MDY index - my bias at this point is toward the downside but not with any great certainty - Time will tell - click below for a good article about bear markets.
- cjk -

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:44 - ID#30345)
@donald -- Be it known:
Rhona O'Connell, a metals analyst for the brokerage T.
Hoare & Co., told Reuters that Russia had recently
swapped for cash some 200 tons of its 520 tons of gold
reserves. Russians are currently estimated to hold $40
billion in dollar savings, and it would take about 4,000 tons
of gold to cover this amount. The proceeds from selling 40
tons of gold, about $400 million ( or 6.2 billion rubles ) ,
could hardly help support the national currency with an
estimated 184 billion rubles in circulation, she said.

perhaps the russians should devalue the dollar? I'll have to think a minute but I don't think that the US reserves of gold would fare much better....against our dollar reserves..

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:44 - ID#350179)
I was wondering if "debt" = *only* "accrued interest"? It seems they're already "postponing" the '98 installments. They'll have to come up with something ( vodka maybe? ; )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:51 - ID#26793)
It will work in Russia at a time when nothing else does. A good lesson for the world, Jurassic or not.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:56 - ID#254288)

ROR; with the company getting up before the count of and the wolves still howling at the door, RYO would be mistaken to develop a property offshore. Best that they concentrate on Kemiss fulltime.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:57 - ID#30345)
Yes, it is time for a good lesson.

Bully Beef
(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:57 - ID#259282)
The best "they" can do is to keep the market from diving.
The world she's a flat like a pancake! Anything static is suspicious in my opinion and everything seems flat. I think there are a lot of people saying flat is good.... I think that the longer gold is obviously flat the better. It means struggle and I think there is a lot of struggle going on.Their arms are twisted in an never ending struggle of wrist wrestling and someone can't take it anymore. What will be will be.' is on our side ..Yes it is Yes it is...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:57 - ID#254288)

ROR; with the company getting up before the count and the wolves still howling at the door, RYO would be mistaken to develop a property offshore. Best that they concentrate on Kemiss fulltime.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:57 - ID#350179)
chas (10 grain gang)
Have you looked at any bimetallic designs? ( 10 grain center AU with .5 oz AG outer ring? ) Not chicken man but...

Just a thought.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 17:59 - ID#252150)
Walt & RYO
Walt-I think the Funds think they've bottomed & have piled in. I think that a great shorting opportunity is at hand.

Wretched Witte sold a big wack of RYO not too long ago. I would'nt trust her as far as I could throw her & she weighs about as much as a Ford Explorer.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:02 - ID#428232)

The majority of recovered GOLD comes from the Proterozic, then the Archaean...........Jurassic indeed !

Which country has a National Debt of US$ 5 592 876 297 000 +, and increasing. Russia - nope, its the good old US of A.

Perhaps the Russians are preparing for the future, whilst the American apppear to be living in the past - former glory !

It takes 114 seconds for the US National Debt to increase be US$ 1 million.

US$ 1 million is equivalent to 3 333 ounces of gold, at US$ 300 per ounce - it takes a wee bit longer than 114 seconds to produce this amount of gold.

Perhaps the Russians know something that the US does not ?

Jurasssic indeed.......................

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:04 - ID#26793)
Russia will be unable to pay foreign debt in 1999 also.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:07 - ID#30345)
a whooping or whopping 776788.37458333333333333333333333 tonnes of the stuff. we beter start digging

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:07 - ID#428232)
Bully Beef (The best "they" can do is to keep the market from diving.)

Is the pancake, thick or thin...........

Thin, gravity is a wonderful thing !

Thick, it can always become thin - the ingredients have already made the pancake !

Gives us a G, give us an O, give us an L, and last but not least a D....

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:08 - ID#290172)
Fed's multi-day operation totals $6.164 billion

NEW YORK, Oct 26 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve added a total of $6.164 billion of reserves via Monday's overnight system repurchase agreements and 10-day fixed system repurchase agareements, the New York Fed confirmed.

Its operation of overnight system repurchase agreements totaled $3.415 billion and its operation of 10-day fixed system repurchase agreements totaled $2.749 billion.

Are we 'talking real money' yet? Who needs the discount window? The
Fed now delivers!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:08 - ID#252150)
Still short PDG from Fri. Think we'll see 285 before 300.
Was surprised that POG held up well despite strong USD, so have fairly close stop. Up considerably on previous shorts so can afford to give a little back.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:13 - ID#428232)
Swap ...........

longj ( @donald -- Be it known: ) ID#30345:
Copyright  1998 longj/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Rhona O'Connell, a metals analyst for the brokerage T.
Hoare & Co., told Reuters that Russia had recently
swapped for cash some 200 tons of its 520 tons of gold

Did the BIS "take" the GOLD for "save" keeping ?!

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:14 - ID#428232)
Swap ...........

longj ( @donald -- Be it known: ) ID#30345:
Copyright  1998 longj/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Rhona O'Connell, a metals analyst for the brokerage T.
Hoare & Co., told Reuters that Russia had recently
swapped for cash some 200 tons of its 520 tons of gold

Did the BIS "take" the GOLD for "safe" keeping ?!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:16 - ID#252150)
Donald@What a surprise--Russia won't be able to pay foreign debt in 99.
I would have thought that by backing the Rouble with AU they would clear up all their problems in a few months. Just being facetious. With the mafia still in control I doubt if much, if any AU will remain in the banks vaults. They have bonds going back to the early 1900s that have about as much chance as being paid as the 99s.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:19 - ID#428232)
No point in being shy..... have a cigar.........


Hillary, check your Database!

"I don't usually beat around the bush or mince words when it comes to issues I care deeply about," begins a campaign donation solicitation sent to this reporter from First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton.

In a letter written on "Hillary Rodham Clinton" stationery, she explains: "The Republican Party and its powerful right-wing allies are going all-out this year to strengthen their grip on Congress. If they succeed, America will be at the mercy of the extremist agenda...

"Matt Drudge, with your support we will send the Republican Party and pundits scrambling for a new explanation of why Democrats are prevailing at the polls."

The First Lady, who watched as the Lewinsky mess exploded in this space, includes a return envelope [no postage necessary if mailed in the United States] with a form listing check boxes up to $500.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:20 - ID#119358)
@aye, haggis........
I would much prefer a golden ruble to a buck'o'pulp.....Mike Kosares....Bart.....could we have a quote please? Ima' buyer of ten pounds or so.......betcha' they'll be pretty....afterall, let's compare the G.Ruble to the new twenty buck'o'pulp.....HuH?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:21 - ID#350145)
@Envy a story i havn't told in a decade
you know how it is, some you see, some you don't. then as now i was mainly doing mining stocks ( made a small fortune that year in pegasus wts ) but anyone who was watching ther mkt with a clear eye could see it. down 100 on thur or fri ( can't remember ) then another 100 and then the amazing day. a week before i had shorted hitachi and honda ( i out smarted myself ( japan held up much better than the U.S. ) , but i knew they were more overbought, so thought they would fall harder, they didn't. i shorted hitachi at 80 or 60, i think for a $1.00 ( i only did $1,000 ) , but i could have bought the 60's for an 1/8. they both went to $10. i think the biggest lesson for me was when panic takes place options prices can get really nuts. 87 was a great year for me i caught everything that year. have been pretty much out of everything for several years, too busy. fun to be back and what a graeat time ( great volitility and i think the end of the gold bear. although i like silver better, always have, no infinite overhang and it gets consumed.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:22 - ID#255151)
G'day Straddler-- EB Silver Call

He wrote in his Friday October 23rd 21:49
post-- "Silver breakout is IMMINENT. Monday,
Tuesday at the latest."

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:23 - ID#428232)

"Nobody believes a rumor here until it's officially denied" Edward Cheyfitz, Washington D.C.

"Never believe in anything until it has been officially denied" Otto von Bismarck

" Euro to become second reserve currency"--McDonough [Oct 26] McDonough denies that Euro could become the world's reserve currency

Oh dear, it MUST be true !

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:25 - ID#428232)
STUDIO.R (@aye, haggis........)

But, what would you do.... if you HAD to swim a river...put the GOLD in one pocket, and the Dollars in the would end up swimming in a circle........

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:29 - ID#219363)
Thanks for sharing that. And if you don't mind a few questions *grin*, what was the "mood" before the drop ? I mean, did people see it coming, and if so, why did they stay in ? Is the mood now similar, or is this a different market ? Did you play the "bounce" at all ? If such a horrible drop were to happen again, would you play calls on the bounce ? If you can remember, what did bonds do when all this was going on ? Anyway, sorry to bother with so many questions, and thanks in advance if you have time to answer them.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:40 - ID#34883)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:49 - ID#43349)
Currencies are like dog packs
There can be only one alpha male. I guess we're gonna hafta duke it out. Despite what they say:

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:54 - ID#288295)
A gold Sovereign is a Titanic life-saver
A good story.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 18:58 - ID#119358)
@aye, haggis..........
I would drown a dizzy man........well if gold=pre-cambrian...then we are surely men'o'da', the 1890's..... salud!!!

The Hatt
(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:00 - ID#294232)
Word on the street in Vancouver is that Nevada could be the first area play since Bre-x decimated VSE Juniors a couple of years back! White Knight Resources is awaiting assays from three holes and word is they could be exellent! My advice would be to wait for the news before taking a position. If they indeed have a discovery keep an eye on Claimstaker as they have just begun a 15000 foot drill program on what appears to be some promising claims. If an area play develops which I believe will should WKR hit these two stocks would take off in a very big way! Nevada has the potential to turn a Junior into a twenty dollar stock. proceed at your own risk!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:03 - ID#43349)
I think I hear some tail rattles buzzing

Gusto Oro
(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:05 - ID#377235)
James--lots of dough not getting paid back next year...

Neither will Brazil. They have to come up with 80 billion yet this year in payments and 220 billion by the end of next year. Can they do it? Duh! --Alan

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:18 - ID#71231)
EJ Chinese only ones to do the right thing
Imagine that, banks, especially Citi, told to make sound lending decisions rather than ask for bailouts when they stumble. This from China... Real money from Russia... Boy, do things turn out differently than anyone expects.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:23 - ID#412286)
I have a friend whose brother is working in Russia.. He says it is the Communists and hard core Marxists that are pro gold and the Harvard educated guys ( our friends ) who oppose. Does this make sense. Now Coms. in China preaching. But with the Left it is TOUGH LOVE for Capital.Interesting, maybe more here than meets the eye. As a Dem Socialist gold bug I am hopeful the LEFT carries GOLD to victory against WAll ST., the FED and the Treasury. LEFT IS RIGHT!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:32 - ID#34459)
XAU is at 50% Pullback Level
Todays low at 67.44 stoped at a 50% pullback of the recent rally in the XAU gold index. 67.76 being the actual number....If you are bullish POG now is the time to get on the train..W.D. Gann used to say a 50% pullback was his favorite time to take a position.. If you are bearish POG, XAU has to take out todays low and go lower.We shall soon see who will prevail..............

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:34 - ID#119358)
@rOr...........left is rightyO.........uhHuH............
Think I'll get to work on my new hit tune........."I'm proud to be a Commie from Muskogee" step aside, Merle. ohmy. If lovin' gold is marxist, then I'm a red sumabitch!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:36 - ID#247428)
Studio!! LOL!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:36 - ID#227238)
As a dedicated DemSoc with a penchant for gold; how would you propose to fund more and greater social programs if a currency is to be tied to a precious metals standard?

Seems to me that the current programs flourish only because the present system allows unlimited credit/money expansion. Take that away and those programs would die on vine.

Thousands of loyal DemSoc's would have to find a new means of gainful employment. Tough business for a bunch of people with no discernibly useful skills.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:38 - ID#288295)

Looks like ( from these projections ) that XAU may
be up for a couple of days, then re-test the low.

PS If you have any favorite mining stocks -
please request that they enter them in the
database. I've requested that HMGCY SGOLY DROOY
CDE PAASF be added.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:41 - ID#119358)
me too. ( LOL ) ........

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:53 - ID#147201)
MM your 17:57
I agree this has some merit, but it costs bad enough to do the minting on gold only. The Australian Mint has the best price, but it hefts the premium.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:54 - ID#316200)
Russia contemplating gold standard

(Mon Oct 26 1998 19:57 - ID#210114)
Solidarity Comrade

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:01 - ID#316200)
For a laugh...
Click on "Rouble Trouble" at bottom right.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:03 - ID#190411)
It'd be pretty tough to give any credence to a chart of SGOLY. -No volume; still buying though.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:06 - ID#257312)
Earl 19:36

There will be many useful and fitting occupations for such folks. For example, former IRS employees could become taxidermists. Socially conscious lawyers could find work in the tobacco fields.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:16 - ID#30345)
I say give them each a shovel.

Mo in To
(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:20 - ID#347205)
Are you the real Lazlo Toth - Beloved man of letters or simply another admirer? I must know.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:22 - ID#252150)
Even more so for GBs
"The flesh has only to endure the present, but the mind must also endure the past and future".--Epicurus. Think I'll have another beer & focus on the past. It was a lot more fun.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:26 - ID#190411)
So, you are still awaiting an analysis of RYO from your broker.
After all of the freely given knowledge on this site, you still await a command from an authority figure of any sort, this time being a broker.
That's what I find so amusing about socialists. They are always willing to submit to a higher authority, an expert, an academic, or anyone who can assume the mantle of caste or unearned rank. You rail against the capitalists, yet they are the ones that offer a trade without force, not at all like your pals. I have never talked to a broker that has the slightest inkling of valuing a goldshare.
Speaking of which, Disney is someone that I have a bit of trust in. He is a disagreeable man to LGB; this is good. BuGaL or Liberty, or whatever wants a truce with Disney. I see no good coming from this.
When RJ puffs about disemboweling his peevish imaginary bugaboos, Disney just allows them to Hari-Kiri themselves. No braggadocio, no pottymouth.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:27 - ID#316200)
Mo in To
Alas, only an admirer! But a real goldbug!

Mo in To
(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:27 - ID#347205)
More To Lazlo
Re: your post about Russia. The newswires reported a story here today that Russia is not exporting any more gold and is stockpiling it to prop up the rubble er...ruble. The story went that foreign miners will no longer be able to export the stuff, they must sell it back to the Ruskie government, presumably for those strengthened rubles. An interesting notion and perhaps harbinger of things to come for patient goldbugs. Any comments?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:30 - ID#350145)
elaine garzerelli ( sic ) made her reputation calling that fall. much like the guy that called this one ( on the tip of my tongue ) . the mood in 87 was the same as the first down leg here. bonds soared - same trip flight to quality. it was something to watch - like a movie. i get confused in this mkt because of the 401k's, seps, etc. lots of money looking for a home. and now the new e-trade grroup. i think over the next six months the mkt will go lower and bonds will rise. i felt after the dollar fall against the yen, that forced japanese liquidity would soften the yen some more. but who knows with japan or brazil. japan is tough, but very secretive and very conformist - could be a deadly formula. i heard one analyst say the japanese prob;lem could be3 15 times worse than our s&l, if so even the japanese will have trouble. also the japanese mafia has a stranglehold on the banks, like russia. i think you would agree bet on what you think you can see, or a good gamble.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:31 - ID#401460)
Hard Assets

Van Eck Hard Assets

Is the bottom in place.


Tantalus Rex
(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:32 - ID#295111)
@Realistic, @Allen(USA) Re: Todays 15:19 post - POG at $3300
@Allen, Good post and I agree with your reasoning.

I'll make a prediction then... POG will reach $3,300 and even beyond it.

So, it'll be an honor to absorb @Realistic's frustrations when @Realistic gets unrealistic.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:36 - ID#316200)
Mo in To
Comments, plenty. They should have never listened to the Harvard educated Western advisors, the IMF, the World Bank, the BIS, etc. and went on a gold standard during the times of glasnosk and peristroyka. If they did, the ruble would be the envy of the currency world. How anyone could invest in a country like that, before their crash, was beyond me. They must immediately increase gold mining efforts, and restore a sound gold backed or gold currency, or the good Russian people will face many more hard years. At one time, as I understand, they held more gold than the U.S. They misplayed their hand. I wish them the best.

Mo in To
(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:38 - ID#347205)
Lazlo Fans
Ah Lazlo,
A soulmate at last! Just think of the fun letters he could send to Mr. Greenspan...Dear Al, I noticed that you have been helping banks in trouble...I'm not a bank or hedge fund but I did get over leveraged on my credit cards..could you put in a word? Keep America strong!
Lazlo Toth

Well really, it's just MofromTo
( I say we lure this guy out of retirement )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:43 - ID#30345)
Tantalus Rex
Time frame? I say 2730 within 3 years....

Mo in To
(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:44 - ID#347205)
Re: Russia
( see you answered a post and now you can't get rid of me... ) Poor Mother Russia, who did listen to the wrong folks, just like the Indonesians and a few billion others. Did you know that there is a real possibility of starvation this winter in Russia? And Clinton and the IMF will try to milk them dry. Like you, I wish them the best..but Russia may need more than that to pull out of this one. ( and of course, their very active crime bosses aren't helping any..rumour has it that they have taken billions of IMF funds out of the country already ) Sigh, plus ca change, c'est plus la meme chose.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:45 - ID#30345)
tanaltus Rex
.....and also 273 within 3 months

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:50 - ID#258302)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:51 - ID#66144)
PM comment on Reuters per David Rinehimer of Saloman SB notes bullish seasonality
of 4th Quarter, resessions spreading in many emerging markets and slowing global growth. Dutch central bank states its had no dealings with LTCM though they have been lending gold on a modest basis. The Bank still reports gold reserves at the same number as reported in 1996. Jeffery Christian of the CPM Group in NY notes strong Silver demand from India since Oct 1 with an expected rebound through 5 up to 5.80 resistance in the next few weeks by many technicians. No objectives for Gold were noted just that the latest CFTC report shows funds have reduced their net long position in COMEX gold

(Mon Oct 26 1998 20:57 - ID#316200)
LazloT...its only a handle
Mo, I like the format of your letter to Greenspan. The IMF money did not get siphoned off by the Russian Mafia. That money went directly to criminal international bankers. The Russian people probably never saw a penny. Pity, but thats the way the ball bounces in modern times.

Mo in To
(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:00 - ID#347205)
IMF Money Exits Russia via...
I stand corrected.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:08 - ID#227238)
No sadly, for in the end, vocationally challenged DemSoc's will attempt survival by doing what they do best. ......... They'll try to survive by suing each other. ....... Anyone with bullshit skills and a dependence on the continuing goodwill of 'Merican taxpayers would be advised to seek some of that federal retraining money ....... before the line gets too long.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:10 - ID#287129)
Why I knew silver would rise today...
This morning I was forced to liquidate some of my silver; and when doing so, I told the broker: "Now silver will go up, because it ALWAYS goes up after I'm forced to sell."

The incessant losses in PM's and gold stocks that have plagued me over the last three years have been very costly, both financially and emotionally. ( Since I'm nearing retirement age, I can't help but take losses emotionally when they are not offset by some profits! ) Over the last three years, I've taken a bloodbath on every financial decision that I've made. Unfortunately, "the piper must be paid" -- so time has run out on me. Today I found myself in the very unwanted position of having to sell much of my silver at a time when I wish I could be buying more, and guess what!!! Naturally, silver climbs a dime AFTER it was sold. I suspect that silver will rise even more now that I've been partially forced out of the market. The greedy seem to be winning, for now...

Hang in there as long as you can, because I believe that the Y2K bug will send precious metals into the stratosphere!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:10 - ID#350145)
lazlo t russia
bought 10 copies of Lazlo Toth when it came out, for all my friends. it is my understanding that the russian mafia does control much of the banking in russia, so i would think imf money would reach them to some degree. then the banks send it to switzerland. poor russia - this is going to be a bad winter. japan has a similiar problem, japanese mafia borrowed money for reaal estate, but won't pay it back. i think the japanese will be ok, just not as rich, and at least it isnt cold.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:13 - ID#411271)
Russia, Empathies to the Russian people. When speaking of Russia politik
one speaks of organized crime, & as I have posted before their move on gold is long term, and more complex than can be resonably imagined. I will not reiterated my organized crime, y2k gold grab hypothesis here again. This just to say to all, keep an eye peeled to Russia as they will

show a gold accumulation very very quickly and far exceeding what could

be explained by mining efforts. A prediction: By one year from now Russias gold backed ruble coin will be the envy of the world and will emerge the clear and ruling winner of the currency wars to come.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:16 - ID#34883)

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:16 - ID#255315)
Umm I know words are cheap!, but I wish you the best of luck. Hopefully for all our sakes the POG will go sky high. This way you can retire a very rich man.

Good Luck

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:18 - ID#219363)
Thanks so much for taking the time to post all that. I guess in the end we'll have to sit and watch together. With all this volatility, who can say what'll happen over the next month. To tell you the honest truth, and many here have said it, the equities have been trading so high for so long and their imminent doom has been anticipated for so many years, that it wouldn't surprise me at all to sit and watch this thing trade up for the next ten years ( okay, that might surprise me a little ) . Common sense has been losing money on this market for a long long time, I'm glad I traded intuition all this time instead of common sense, or I would have missed out. I wish the metals would see their day, but who the hell knows when that's gonna be. 350$US gold is but a memory in the back of my mind. I remember a few years ago buying an eagle at about 400$US ( I think ) and selling it at a loss when I got stranded on a business trip and needed money - who would have ever thought we'd eventually see 290$US gold, just amazing. Then, just when all hope is lost, things get even worse. The bear is mean, and the gold bear has just been down right insulting, spitting on the graves of already dead and buried investors. I believe the only folks left in gold are the die hard goldbugs, the people who have been slashed and rapped and burned, the folks who have had it so bad by now that they laugh and taunt the happy fun bear. I hope the faithful have their day.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:21 - ID#227238)
Are you intimating that Uncle Boris used the IMF funding to purchase gold? Reserving only enough for himself to buy one case of wadka? Smart move if he did but difficult to maintain as a state secret.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:25 - ID#413273)
Skip...not wanting to push a point...most here are caught up on the leverage of metals....a loser
always has been always the real stuff put it away.....and you don't have to deal with idiot do I know...I used to be one

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:41 - ID#190411)
I was wondering what happened to you. It seems that there will be no respite for you.
I suggest a new venture. The chances are strong that an equity mutual fund would like to have you as a spokesman for, "Why NOT TO throw your money away on gold related junk". Your learning curve is just what the MF's need for a new wave of anti-sound money.

Seriously, I had thought about you in the latest decline. I hope that you have enough long positions that you can carry through.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:44 - ID#350145)
robnoel "Buy when the enemy is at the gate and sell when the bugles of victory are
blowing. where is the enemy and where is the victory: i have made a ton more than i have lost, in mining shares, over the last 20 years.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:44 - ID#240241)
if your still online, I have some questions for you if you don't mind.
Since I'd probably embarrass myself asking them here, would you mind
e-mailing me?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:52 - ID#350145)
i e-mailed you, but am having trouble with aur server. let me know if you got this.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:52 - ID#333126)
i think that bond rattlesnake is warming up again

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:54 - ID#432395)
Tomorrow we start to buy!!...But tonight.....tonight.......WE DANCE!!!!!
Come, we do this dance together. Yes.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:59 - ID#411271)
Earle, It goes like this: Y2K is a planned event by organized crime
who is the "they" behind one world gov., Clinton & others are accomplices to this. The accumulation of gold is the ultimate objective. Organized crime has legitimized boullion dealers who have been buying when CBs have been selling. Because they are no longer front page too many have assumed they don't exist, but O.C. represents the single wealthiest entity on earth. They now own whole governments and are calling the shots on markets worldwide to their liking & their liking is any and everything that aids and abetts their accumaulation of cheap gold. The y2k thingy gives them the final solution to implement one world gov. through ww martial law declarations.

From this perspective it will be seen that Clinton will not only not be impeached but will still be the shill leader of US in 2007. The mkts will not tank unless POG goes down with it, and it really doesn't matter if the "bug" is fixed or not because too many plans have been laid down dependent on infrastructure failures as the excuse for martial law.

I admit this is far out and difficult to accept but if you let it roll through your head for awhile and start looking at what is unfolding before your eyes from this perspective more and more of these crazytimes, rattlesnake mkts etc. become more and more transparent.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 21:59 - ID#341227)
It looks like the gold wars are about to begin tomorrow...
...and I was beginning to think we'd have to wait until 1999.



(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:02 - ID#300202)
freerepublic-latest 20 posts
Permanent German air bases in New Mexico. I've got Germans livin next door to me. Nice neighbours. Gesundheit. Prosit! There are German fighters in training in Labrador-BUT under Cdn command for low level flying. Oh well-Germans can be trusted today.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:04 - ID#240241)
got it & replied.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:05 - ID#318274)
what dance would that be, waltzing with mathilda, or dancing with wolfes

( S )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:07 - ID#45173)
Um, so I'm poking around the 'Net tonight looking for reports I've overlooked
About NATO ready to bomb the hell out of a certain country for failing to make good on promises of troop withdrawls, deadline up tomorrow. Last I heard, over the weekend, the troops hadn't left.

Awfully quiet, considering the circumstances, or perhaps because of the circumstances...


(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:07 - ID#200235)
Farfel & Gibbous
Do you know something about pog that we do not? If so, please share your info with us. TIA

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:07 - ID#284255)
LGB Y2k info
My pleasure.
It does seem more revealing than the continual hype that is spreading like wildfire.

As to it's effects on gold?
I just don't know.
Initially a buying response from the public due to fear.
Afterwards - well - none of us really know?

Swing chart updated

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:10 - ID#219363)
Seem weird to anyone else that gold didn't rally more on a dollar tank ? I've been trying to figure that one, seems counter-intuitive to me. Fed warms up the presses, foreign folks dump dollars back across America from sea to shining sea, and gold just sits there. I had really thought that the dollar's demise would be gold's day.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:14 - ID#45173)
The sky is green
And the grass is blue
Cats bark and
Dogs mew

Welcome to the new financial world order.

Tip: deflation.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:15 - ID#237164)
bank of america
Time magazine, October 26, 1998 ... there is an article about Bank of
America. It seems they bought equity in Shaw's ...then they had to
bale them out. What does it mean that BankAmerica boutght $20 B of
bonds from Shaw. If they bought them at the peak, then are they out
about 10% ? Which would mean $2 B. If a bank looses $2 B,
for example, where does the money come from? If you had 10,000 with
BA would you worry? If you had 100,000 deposited with BA would you
worry? If you had 1,000,000 deposited with them, would you worry?

If someone would explain more clearly what BA did, I would appreciate it.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:19 - ID#238422)
Earl, I must absolutely disagree with you...
It was not a case of wadka, it was a case of vodka!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:22 - ID#287129)
Thank you for thinking of me. I have not been gone, I've just been lurking with very few postings these last many weeks. I don't have time to lurk every day, as I'm working two jobs just to try to get close enough to see the surface of the water of debt that I'm drowning in. My deepest sympathy goes to anyone else in my predicament. While my postings may be few and far between, I'll continue to lurk here several times weekly.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:22 - ID#225369)
Could someone tell me if the dividends of South African gold companies are paid to American share holders? If so,how?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:23 - ID#30126)
Volatility is dropping like a rock on this stock and the price seems to be trading in a very tight range. It almost seems to be trading like a company that has been bought out ( NO, that last comment has no meaning and I have no information, it was just an observation ) . Does anyone else find the recent price/volume trading pattern curious?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:25 - ID#227238)
I know, I know. It was just a foolish attempt to effect a Russian pronunciation of the word. ...... Didn't work out, did it?

Now, did Uncle Boris use all that foreign funding ( except enough for one case of vodka ) to buy gold and stash it away for a future surprise?? Or is it as it appears. That all or most of it ended up in the pockets of the Russian mafia. ....... and western banks. .... same thing.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:25 - ID#28882)
@ Tantalus Rex re ABX Shorts

Don't know if you caught this after our little back and forth Sat morn but somebody posted that the convertible debentures I was talking about are actually a Trizac issue. To quote the msg:

"I own a good chunck o ABX CONV they are traded under TRIZEC HAHN CORP CONV 3% 29 JAN 2021 EXchangeABLE fo ABX shares once it reaches 31$ or 32 shares.Now trading at $80.00 52wk high 86.75 low 54.00."

So my theory may turn out to hold some water after all.


(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:27 - ID#45173)
As Tom Leher sang, "We taught them a lesson in 1918 and they've hardly bothered us since then."

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:29 - ID#238422)
RAN, I thank God you are here. We were really
missing a person like yourself...I like your prediction
on Russian gold coin... dah!

I already placed an order for a 1,000 coins to be smuggled
out of Russia, would you be interested to purchase some at
a small know, it's kind of risky...customs... know...people should be interested, yes?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:32 - ID#411163)
Skip-hand on tight. This thing can't go on forever. The longer
they can hold it together the farther it will go in the end. It won't take much gold or silver to make you well off because almost no one will have anything left. The debt monster will drive almost all "assets" so far into the ground most things will sell for 1% to 5%
of what they are now. you are not the only one that had lost in the last few years.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:33 - ID#190411)
No matter how many colorful posts you make, you cannot figure this one precisely. I wish that I knew which week your race was to be held.
As you, I can smell the horsecrap, and I have gravitated toward the racetrack.
I have one large ( for me ) short SP. Symbol SXBXS. 85% loose on these puts, yet I was unable to get out of this one when I was up 150%. I am at a position where if I sold now I would be out half.
Envy's positions are subject to swings of 50% or more in three hours.
Don't do this unless you are prepared to lose on NDX puts. I like GE to dive. Lucent descending to Hades. Sinkhole in the Dell.
The broker charges too much for options, and the short position on these worries me. I hate short squeezes. Except if farfel's pals can get it up.
James is darn good at calling short opportunities in gold majors.
Donald's POG/XAU is well under .240 @ cheap.
Time to buy? Oui.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:33 - ID#30126)
Yes, and after the exchanges and ADR banks take their 'cut', you get what's left over. I came across a story somewhere that explained the whole ( or is it 'hole' ) deal. Most of these stocks trade on the NASduck, er, I mean NASDAQ. The NASDAQ takes their cut along with the banks that handle the 'ADR'. Expenses you know. :- )

In case you're wondering where the 'NASduck' comes from, just think about the shoot out at the O.K. Corral between the Clanton's and the Erp's. :- ) )

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:36 - ID#411271)
oris, in spite of my speculative theories I find myself in the same boat as skip
though I have moved all my call options to June & beyond. Still have a handfull of Dec. but all but written them off. As far as gold coins go, an ounce is an ounce is an ounce & I go where the lowest premium goes.

Still when euro, yen, and dollar have left one another bloody in the streets the gold based Russian ruble will rule!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:37 - ID#227238)
Panda: @SWC
It's even more interesting when considered in light of the action in the PGM's. SWC has spent the entire month in that tight little range while PL and PA have foundered. I have been waiting for it to return to mid to upper 20's for another buy but it hasn't cooperated at all.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:41 - ID#225369)
Thanks Panda.
Just so I won't have to pay them , It'll be ok ,I guess.

Those guys and their games can't be any worse than the old AMAX.

Hey,didn't those guys join up with .............. huuuuuummmmmmm.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:41 - ID#30126)
I did those S&P things once ( S&P 500 index options, that is ) . Every time that I traded them, I got a 'fast market' flag from my broker. Translation, they really don't know the price is......

In reality, the price moves so fast on S&P index options that a person can lose upwards of 80% in a couple of hours.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:41 - ID#401460)


(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:46 - ID#190411)
And in spite of all of the bad PGM news, I haven't sold SWC. Queer behavior, somewhat like Euro-Nevada.
EN.TO hasn't dived in the ratio that their royalty partners have.
And to think that I didn't act on selling them on a broker's reco.
Someone likes these companies, it seems. Someone with big pockets.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:46 - ID#45173)
You do seem to have it all figured out. Think I oughta get outa gold and into heroin?

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:47 - ID#238422)
Got it, no offence taken. But please, in the future be
very careful with this "wadka", it's a holy subject for me...

On a serious note, Uncle Boris did not use IMF money
to purchase gold ( unfortunately ) ..and this money were
not roughly "stolen by Russian mafia". This money were mostly
used to buy STUFF -
Of course, some of this money were indeed kind of stolen...
through special technology of executing purchase contracts...
do not need or want to explain...Anyway, this money were
actually wasted, because money were not used for development
of domestic industry ( like in China, for example ) , but for
immediate consumption. Of course, some of the dollars were
paid to debtors as interest, etc...and of course, used to
support stability of ruble for a while...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:54 - ID#238422)
If RAN is correct and gold ruble will rule, you all
guys better like me very me respect and
stuff and then, and if I'm in a good mood,
I might share a few rubles with you...dah!
P.S. Respect can be shown by sending me a bottle of
expensive "wadka" C.O.D...freight prepaid, please!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:55 - ID#190411)
Never listen to me, but if Realistic wants to fool with puetz or puts or sumpin' like dat, I would show him a folio of choice ^NDX puts. They're pricey, but the underlying are so high that it makes you want to give up "Powerball".

(Mon Oct 26 1998 22:55 - ID#30126)
The reason that I made the comment about SWC is that I've seen similar price action in stocks that have been taken over. The thing is, that's what happens AFTER the announcment is made ( look at ORX for example ) . I can remember the days when PA/PL was going up and SWC just sat there because of their 'hedging' program. Now, the opposite????? BTW, my average length of trades has decreased from five days to 48 hours or less. In most cases it's in during the A.M. and out in the following day P.M. The Dow has bumped up against the 200 DMA, and it didn't look like support either :- ) ) . It'll be interesting over the next few trading sessions. Most of the stocks that have been blown out in the general market have bounced up about 50% from their recent lows. Me thinks some profit taking about to set in. The only question is where will it start? The NAsDuck? Then the NYSE/AMeX?

Go figure. The NYSE says that they can handle a two billion share day. Hmmm, I wonder what happened today? The funny thing is, some option plays were locked up due to this. Actually, that isn't so funny. What's the old expression? Caveat emptor.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:00 - ID#45173)
I trade 2 case Smirnoff B&W for AK47, dah? No rrrrrrubles. Perhaps gold kopeks.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:02 - ID#227238)
I wish now that I had followed suit. I rode that last move from 19 to 27 and expected a retrace. .... that never came. If you look at the period Apr to July, it has been volatile as hell. Now virtually nothing. Curious. ...... Incidently, for Oct. the down days have tended to be higher volume days. ....... For whatever that's worth.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:03 - ID#30126)
Sometime ago, I made a comment to the effect that if Russia went to a gold standard the dollar would find it self in deep do doo. I couldn't help but to wonder then as now, if this isn't part of a larger 'play' ( for Eastern Europe or Europe ) . I never have believed that the 'Bear' has become a 'teddy bear'. No sir. In the food for thought column, wouldn't it be funny if this 'trading' game were the new type of 'warfare'. Instead of using 'real' weapons, the national power blocks duke it out with finance and currency wars. It's sort of like a nuetron bomb, kills the economies but leaves the buildings intact.....

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:06 - ID#252391)
Very strange trading pattern, occurring during this period of their 2 million share offering. Somebodies may be maintaining a steady price for some appearance sake. The company was to sell the shares at 30 3/4. Seems to me that there are eager parties wanting to buy in size.

Like others I was hoping to get more in the high 20's, but PT firming up today and PD's inability to drop dispite selling that is supposedly occuring in the spot market makes that look like less of a liklihood.

No comment have I found on that Yahoo boards or SI boards has been made relative to reason behind the tight range. My bet: A couple of big buyers - primarily mutual funds are sitting under the market taking everything that is being offered. The small guy is selling SWC as he is disinvesting out of other metal mining stocks but not to the same extent. Thus we have small net sales above the market being absorbed by a couple of large buyers who are making restrained purchased not trying to set off a stampede.

My forecast: SWC will earn $2 in 1999 and trade at $50 by April. No guarantees!!!!

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:06 - ID#30126)
Insider trades for SWC.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:08 - ID#257312)
ERLE 22:55

Would be interested in your list of NASDAQ patsies. I have thought of yahhoo, amazon, dell, and microsoft. What are your top candidates?

Yellow Jacket
(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:11 - ID#4289)
SA ADR Dividends
ptwoskool: In Sept 97 I received the DROOY dividend as a direct deposit to my account then at Schwab. I imagine that if you hold the certificates they would mail you a check. Don't know if they have DRIPs.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:12 - ID#45173)
Brazil/IMF deal slipping away...
Election of Rivals in Brazil Hurts Cardoso Reform Plans
New York Times Oct. 26, 1998


IO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- Rivals of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso
won important victories in gubernatorial races Sunday, handing the recently
re-elected president a complex landscape for pushing through long-delayed
government and economic reforms.

In Sao Paulo, however, Brazil's most populous and wealthiest state, Mario Covas
appeared likely to win re-election as governor, defeating former Sao Paulo mayor
Paulo Maluf.

Although Maluf's party forms part of the president's governing coalition, Cardoso had
endorsed Covas. Maluf is known as a big spender with presidential ambitions of his
own. His victory could have complicated Cardoso's efforts to control state spending
and win congressional approval for reforms.

Despite considerable foreign pressure on Brazil to demonstrate how it will restructure
government to reduce deficits, Cardoso has put off publicly announcing his plans,
fearing they could damage the chances of his allies in the elections. The delay costs
Brazil heavily; each day, the country loses hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign
reserves, and the longer the country maintains interest rates over 40 percent, the deeper
its recession and debt.

With Brazil's solvency seen as crucial to maintaining economic stability of Latin
America and protecting the United States from recession, the United States and the
International Monetary Fund are preparing to chip in toward an aid package of at least
$30 billion to shore up Brazil.

Cardoso won re-election on the first round of national voting earlier this month, but
partial results showed left-of-center candidates leading in some of the most developed
states of Brazil.

Sen. Pedro Piva, of the president's Brazilian Social Democracy Party, called Sunday's
elections "a warning sign for the government," adding, "I think we're going to have
difficulties ahead to approve this package."

The governors are important both because they control a considerable share of the
national budget and act as natural leaders of their parties in Congress. States will be
called upon to cut their budgets by as much as 20 to 30 percent, which will mean
laying off civil servants. Current laws allow the states to fire workers if the payroll
exceeds 60 percent of the state budget; under a new law the administration is
proposing, layoffs would become mandatory once that ceiling was reached.

In Rio de Janeiro, Anthony Garotinho, a former mayor of the city of Campos who
belongs to the leftist Democratic Workers Party, was leading over Cesar Maia, a
former Rio mayor belonging to a conservative grouping.

In Rio Grande do Sul in the south, Olivio Dutra of the Workers' Party was also leading
over the incumbent, Antonio Britto, a Cardoso ally.

In Minas Gerais, former President Itamar Franco was leading by a wide margin over
the incumbent Eduardo Azeredo, also of Cardoso's centrist Brazilian Social Democracy
Party. Franco's party belongs to the governing coalition, but Franco has been critical
of Cardoso's economic policies and personally stung by the president's re-election.

In 1993, during Franco's presidency, he named Cardoso finance minister and launched
the economic plan that would make Cardoso a national hero to a people weary of
hyperinflation. But Franco was deeply humiliated at his party's convention earlier this
year, when he sought to run for president against Cardoso. He was not only turned
down, but laughed at.

Sunday night, Sen. Maguito Vilela, of Franco's Brazilian Democratic Movement Party,
said backing for Cardoso's reforms would not be automatic. The party would not
support tax increases, he said, noting that one tax slated for increase, on financial
transfers, was initially approved as a temporary measure to finance hospitals, but
ended up going to offset the deficit. "It just burdened people and didn't do anything to
improve health care," he said.

Asked on Brazilian television precisely which measures his party would endorse,
Vilela said, "If it means more sacrifice for the people," his party "will not support it."

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:12 - ID#227238)
I did the same exercise when their annual report came out a couple of months ago and came to a similar conclusion. All by way of some conservative numbers for the PGM's. ...... and of course assuming they will do what they say they will do.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:16 - ID#277224)
Asian Markets

Before I hit the wrapper ( it is getting late at least here )
it would be good to know how the gold markets on the flip
side are doing. If anyone might be so condecending as to
pass them around to this side of the hemisphere it would
be muchly appreciated.Although it would seem sometimes
one is better off not knowing.Thanks in advance.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:16 - ID#238422)
Some time ago. at least twice, I posted my understanding
of this Russian gold coin idea or affair..whatever.
I know I'm right, because I lived in Russia for 33 years.

Russia does not need to fight dollar at this time, Russia
needs dollars and loves them...It is not an ideologically
based currency war as some folks like to think....

But, indeed, if to imagine that ruble would want to defeat
dollar, it must be 100% backed by gold ( converted to gold
at any branch of any bank ) , which is practically
impossible....even dead drunk hard core Russian commie
could not imagine such paradise yet...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:18 - ID#30126)
'night all.
Globex being real neutral tonight. Talk of deflation everywhere. Above all else, remember this. In a bear market, rallies seemingly come out of no where and give the appearance that market has resumed its upward trek... Only to collapse sometime later with brutal swiftness. Take a look at those charts folks. Many issues have have bounced upwards of fifty percent from the lows made in the last month or so. That's a nice profit IF you got lucky in your buy..................

'Markets, on average, decline twice as fast as they rose....'

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:21 - ID#238422)
This trade looks a little bit unfair to me...I can not
cheat on you, my brother. 2x12 bottles of B&W will cost
you approx. $475, and AK-47 can be bought even now for
under $400...On the other hand....let me think....

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:22 - ID#219363)
Wish I knew when it'd be too, or even if it'll happen *grin*. Yep, saw some I bought for 1/8 and sold for 1 1/2 go up to 3 1/2 before flip'n back to 1/4, all within two days. Quick game, have to force my broker to run in the office to get the trades in, and always try to trade early and use ask's that I think'll get picked up. Buy on bids the same way, there isn't a market price, just the first person in line to buy/sell. Broker has trouble understanding the concept of a 10 min trade, selling into steep declines, wants to talk shop, I hate that. Plan in advance for what I'm gonna take away with me, run the scenes over in my head, then stick to it. Agree that options are expensive through the brokers, my first trade was 2/5ths commission, 3/5ths principle.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:22 - ID#45173)
Ah, there it is. Peace in our time. (Now off to sleep for me)
October 26, 1998
Yugoslavia Assures NATO of Pullout to Avoid Attack
New York Times Oct. 26, 1998


ELGRADE, Yugoslavia -- After brandishing yet another threat of Western air
power, NATO's top two generals left Belgrade on Sunday with assurances
that Yugoslavia will withdraw enough of its forces from the province of
Kosovo by a Tuesday deadline to avoid punitive air strikes, according to Western

On their third visit to press Western demands for the force reductions, and after 18
hours of meetings with President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia and his military
chiefs, senior NATO officers agreed on the specific military and police units to be
withdrawn and were promised that the speed of withdrawal will increase, the diplomats

If the promises are kept, they will probably avert a showdown between Yugoslavia and
NATO that the alliance seems anxious to avoid -- not only because it means taking
military action against a sovereign country but because, Western diplomats say, it
would greatly complicate efforts to solve the problems in Kosovo peacefully.

The first of as many as 2,000 international monitors who are to spread out across
Kosovo are beginning to arrive there. While they may enhance the chances of peace,
both they and the increasing number of relief workers could easily be taken hostage in
the event of NATO military action.

Gen. Wesley Clark, the American who is NATO's supreme commander, and Gen.
Klaus Naumann, a German who is the alliance's highest ranking European officer,
arrived here on Saturday to tell Yugoslavia that it must move much more quickly to
reduce its forces in Kosovo.

NATO civilian officials said it would not be necessary for all the forces to be removed
by Tuesday's deadline if the pace of withdrawal quickened enough to suggest that they
would all be gone soon.

"We know exactly the names and locations of every unit we want out of there," a
NATO officer said.

Another NATO officer said Yugoslavia would also have to remove all its artillery from
Kosovo or shift the weapons to a narrow area along the border with Albania. "Those
weapons have no business where they are because right now they can only be used
against civilian targets,"the officer said.

Western diplomats say that while some Yugoslav forces have been withdrawn already,
the number is far from enough to comply with the agreement reached between the U.S.
envoy Richard Holbrooke and Milosevic on Oct. 13.

To get that agreement, NATO also threatened air strikes, then suspended the threat until
this Tuesday to give Milosevic time to reduce his forces to the level demanded by a
U.N. resolution.

There seems to be little enthusiasm for air or missile strikes on Yugoslavia.

Speaking on British television Sunday, Foreign Secretary Robin Cook indicated that
the deadline would pass without an order to bomb, Agence France-Presse reported
from London.

"I think that when on Tuesday we review this, we may well come to the conclusion we
cannot yet relax our guard, we cannot stand down the planes, we need further progress
before we relax that order," Cook said.

The United Nations said Yugoslavia must bring down the level of police and army
forces in Kosovo to what it was in February, before a military offensive against ethnic
Albanian rebels who want Kosovo to be an independent country. Dozens of towns and
villages were destroyed, and hundreds of people, many of them civilians, were killed
in the offensive.

More than 250,000 civilians who fled during the offensive are afraid to return to their
homes, and some are living in the open.

A senior NATO official said that about 25,000 soldiers and policemen are still in
Kosovo, 10,000 fewer than at the height of the offensive, but 9,000 more than
Milosevic agreed to.

"A lot of these are the same people responsible for the attacks on civilians and the
looting," the NATO official said. "People quite rightly are afraid to go home with these
men still in the field. Milosevic may not be able to get them all out by the Tuesday
deadline, but he must pick up the speed of the withdrawal."

Christopher Hill, the U.S. diplomat trying to get a peace agreement between Yugoslav
officials and ethnic Albanians said on Thursday that there is no chance of serious
negotiations until Yugoslavia reduces its forces and the fighting stops.

Threatening military action to make the government reduce its forces will not bring
peace if the separatist guerrillas continue to mount military actions. While Kosovo is
part of Serbia and is ruled by Serbian officials and security forces, ethnic Albanians
make up roughly 90 percent of the population.

"No one can expect the Serbs to leave and let the KLA take over," a senior Western
diplomat said, referring to the ethnic Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army.

On Saturday, as an estimated 1,000 soldiers and several artillery pieces were being
withdrawn from a position guarding one of Kosovo's main roads, a Western diplomat
said: "There are strong KLA units all over that area. If they want to cut that road, it's
now wide open."

While the level of fighting in Kosovo has declined substantially, both sides have
initiated attacks, diplomats say.

Western diplomats concede that while they have been able to persuade the Yugoslav
government at least to begin reducing its forces, they have little with which to threaten
the guerrillas, who are dispersed in small units and often intermingled with civilians.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:22 - ID#30126)
True enough, but in my 'hypothetical war', perception is everything. Really gone now........ZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:28 - ID#219363)
I like XRX, MSFT, and PFE. Have held and sold CCI, XRX, and KO.

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:35 - ID#333126)
we should start a page listing loan default stories

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:43 - ID#257312)

Thanks. Will watch them together here...

(Mon Oct 26 1998 23:45 - ID#238422)
John Disney
Brother John,

Recently I noticed some tiny, but growing elements of
hostility against you, probably caused by nasty atmosphere
of low gold price, and it made me sad...I always felt
that it is the great honor and my duty to prevent potential
complications which could irretate you...

Anyway, would you like me to deploy SPEZNAZ guys?

Your brother Oris, always ready.