Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:06 - ID#287305)
Most honorable Mr. Nikkei
has slumped over and looks like he is about to YAK his sushi. One look at this chart says it all. You can always tell when they try to create the illusion of a stable move up. The "buy" programs automatically counteract the "sell" orders. This gives the appearance of a vibrating statistic. The changes in the line are a constant up and down in a tiny range that is out of character with a normal trading environment.

The same type of blatant downward pressure has been repeatedly applied to gold. About 8 months ago the graph of the closing prices covering several months looked like it had been drawn by a ruler ( or a computer to be more precise ) .

Despite what must be fantastic economic forces that are being applied to Mr. Nikkei to make him appear well and happy, he is looking just like Presdient Bush did before he addressed an assembled gathering of Japanese legislators.

You know Mr. Nikkei is going to lose it soon. He is weaving around on rubber legs, complexion is green and he is anxiously scanning the economic horizon for the safest place to reflexively dump that "day-old" makeral sashimi with fiat wasabi and soy derivatives he has stuffed himself with.

"Wouldn't you like just one tiny, little thin mint, Mr. Nikkei?"

Jim Bob
(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:08 - ID#249395)
goldfields SA
Friday, Oct. 16, Goldfields SA spun off 85% of its value in the form
of shares in Goldfields Ltd. and Standard Bank & Investment Co. I was
concerned about when the spin-offs would hit my account. E-Trade advises that the same will appear Nov. 7. What is the feeling out there for what to do next with those shares???
The South Africans are gaining investment support with their restructurings and the rand drop which makes them far more competitive. What is the story on a mineral rights grab by the gov't? I saw one small reference without details on this site late last week. I'm heavy in
the SA's, Euro-Nevada, Franco-Nevada and Stillwater. I haven't been flushed out of the market yet and I'm hanging in there. Those of you who
are weak holders or attempt to trade in and out are going to miss the next rally which could cover a lot of paper losses. Patience!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:16 - ID#190411)
Lucent, Because it was 108 then 50something, and back up to wildly overpriced again. I'd love a fair and square market on Yahoo, but it is so high now because of the vast short position already. A small push upward trips the triggers to cover on the short positions.
I would like a nice database that would sort by price/book, P/E, and short positions.
Envy is ten times smarter than me, so ignore this.

IBM a tad high also.

Safe bluechip golds might be low for a more prudent long now.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:20 - ID#25174)
banks, y2k, viruses and cohen
Read an interesting fact in a book by that guru of the computer virus world ( writer of satan ) cohen. With respect to bank backups being used to recover from virus attack he stated that banks have told him to go back to just one days backup would put them out of business. Typically they move their entire financial holdings about every two to three days.
Assuming the banks are not run by complete financial boobs they must have plans in place to address y2k. If they dont the telltale sign will be bank presidents taking early retirement early next year to avoid being in the seat when the s**t hits the fan.
If your banks CEO's bail out soon , perhaps it would be prudent to do so as well before all the parachutes are gone and you need to learn how to fly a gold brick.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:20 - ID#190411)
Listen to James, he knows how to work the trading range.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:36 - ID#257312)
ERLE 00:16

Will also watch Lucent together, eh!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:41 - ID#254288)
ERROR IN MY 17:11 OF 10/26/98

Sorry, but only FRANCO NEVADA ( Not both it and Euro Nevada ) is involved in the purchase of 25.4% of INCO's interest in Voisey Bay Nickel ( VBN ) for $50.4 million.

I believe that global mining interests will attempt to
take over major NA Mining Companies such as INCO and it is reassuring that Franco Nevada, the NA Gold Royalty King is involved in the future of Voisey Bay as globalism in mining should be contained.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 00:54 - ID#190411)
Auric, Lucent
A classic bubble: Most Recent Quarter


float..........1300 million
short..........19.1 million

Run that against some good SA stocks.

Goodnight from Culver Cadet.
You are a Hoosier, aren't you?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 01:10 - ID#257312)

Have ya seen the latest Wheaties? Larry Bird is on the box. He is from French Lick, Indiana.

John Disney
(Tue Oct 27 1998 01:20 - ID#24135)
pranksers .
brother oris ..
thank you .. halloween is coming . Its only a local
ten year disguised as a tin Bugal playing early days
trick or treat at my front door.. hardly a case for
If he keeps it up .. maybe send a SPEZNAZ little old
lady to give him spanking. ( and maybe wash his tiny
mouth out ) .

(Tue Oct 27 1998 01:34 - ID#25490)
"you're either on the bus or you're off the bus."
Merry Pranksers, indeedy.

( americana for y'all )

Got References?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 01:42 - ID#39857) I thinking like a gazelle or am I on slugpaste....
journalists may at anytime use my ideas.........yeh...just to touch a palm in somewhere approaching all I need to make me rich.

Treason? Sooooooooo, if your gov sells 2/3 of its gold, for instance
the Aussie gov, which severely affects the value of your gold shares
without giving you a warning of their intention, do you think it possible
to take civil action against Treasury and esp the Treasurer. If your gov
procedes with actions that affect the sovereignty of your country then
have they not committed treason and liable under the appropriate laws?

this has been on my mind for a long time..........
and is this why other countries chose to telegraph their intentions re
gold sales so their citizens could take evasive action........??

bios are effective, however I beleive delivery systems leave too much
in the palms of mother nature, though not for direct hits on water
supplies which seem the most obvious......they are just plain stoopid
like nukes......however if a nuke was in the hands of someone who
had a need to use........would they let the deterrent aspect expire
as I would expect alot of nukes to do due to Y2K............or would
they feel compelled to use before it expired....?????? help

(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:04 - ID#390415)
Prediction from NightWriter
Inflation in second half of 1999 due to pre-Y2K hoarding.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:05 - ID#252150)
Erle@I've been fairly successfull trading the AU mjrs from both sides
( mostly long ) but have incurred a few real disasters trying to short the techs. I do agree that LU is a good short candidate though. NT was one of my few short successes & IMO is way undervalued compared to LU. I'm thinking of just going with SPY next time. Gains will be limited but I'll sleep better.

Have to start getting to bed earlier so that I can get up before mkts open. That's one of the few disadvantages of living on the west coast, the mkts open at 6.30 & I usually don't get to sleep until 1.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:09 - ID#39857)
yellowcake park under UN scrutiny as we speak........ommmmmmmm

(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:20 - ID#39857)
yellowcake park under UN scrutiny as we speak........ommmmmmmm

and Dalai Lama includes China on his agenda.......well I would do it also
after putting up with Hollywood propaganda for a decade...brave and
clear thinking will find the truth......................I know
you know cause we are linked........yes........your beautiful men
helped us celebrate the love of a brother and a sister that they may be
united.......I was blessed to be in his presence...thankyou.

Jabiluka ...... if therefore Yellowcake park....we are
united with the Mirrar in their battle...and beleive me it is war.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:21 - ID#252150)
John D. Shame on you.
Brother Allen intervened on your behalf & actually shamed BUGAL into apologizing to you & promising to be an upstanding netizen. And what does he get for his efforts? An unrepentant ribbing on your very first post.

Funny though.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 02:38 - ID#173196)
All's quiet in KitcoLand!
Perhaps the "quiet before the storm".

Paul Gold
(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:08 - ID#21484)
DROOY Third Quarter Results
Durban Roodepoort Deep management is at this very moment addressing analysts and the press, releasing third quarter results. You too can get hold of this *HOT* *FRESH* news at

One of the highlights: cash operating profit up by 95%!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:14 - ID#284255)
au*stralian (banks, y2k, viruses and cohen)
Where that whisper came from the other day.
The one about the banks spending more funds/time on fixing Y2k bugs, on the funds you owe them, rather than the funds they owe you.

Well that came from a manager from "Which Bank"
Who is looking at his bonus options nervously and is retiring next year.

Whispers from down south.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:28 - ID#33184)
@Observer - all quiet on the forex front too ...

John Disney
(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:29 - ID#24135)
IM FURIOUS (tee hee)
To all ..
Ive posted on this before .. press is carrying the
odd story about ANC Government strong arm takeover of
mineral rights ..
... what has happened .. a "white paper" was issued by
the Minerals and Energy deptartment to the effect that
privately held mineral rights must be used within
a specified time period or would revert to the state.
A time period of 20 years has been stated.
the ANC have pointed out that to their knowledge
only the US has privately held mineral rights and they
wish to bring themselves into line with international
I think that the USA really doesnt have private
mineral rights but rather leases are bought or auctioned
off by the state .. and must be "used" in a much shorter
time frame.
The mining companies must be having a big party over
this one .. naturally they bitch to the press and the
ANC ( election coming up you know ) can pretend to be
tough on whitey..
Under the Nats .. ring fencing in a fixed mining
area was enforced and lease payments to governemt
were required .. under the ANC .. lease payments
dissappear and so has ring fencing.. these guys can
really strong arm you hey ??

(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:32 - ID#341227)
Now I know why Disney Can Hardly stand this Guy...
Going over some past posts, I came across this hysterically funny post...LGBugable is still the ultimate comedian on this forum. Just keep yattering away...don't stop to stop to think. It'd cramp your style.
Date: Mon Oct 26 1998 12:48
LGB ( @ Ran...the 29 crash ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ran, watch it now're on a forum that is almost exclusively populated by Mr. Potter's with VERY few George Bailey's!...remember, George was the one who believed in extended credit to his worthy fellow man in the belief that this would allow said fellow man to prosper, create economic growth, and thus help lead the community/country out of the crises! This is the virtual antithesis of everything the true diehard GoldBug believes!


Gee, isn't that an interesting revisionist interpretation of the great Christmas film, "IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE!"

So, American equities and bonds investors are the generous "George Baileys" of the world...and goldbugs are the miserly Potters.


Let's see...most goldbugs feel that the existent global economic status quo of dysfunctional floating rate currencies and resultant collapsing foreign economies is particularly harmful to the interests of all mankind...repeat. Mankind. Not just American-kind...but Mankind.

Yet, LGB and his Wall Street partners-in-crime would contend that the American Bull market bubble has been beneficial to America. And in their minds, America is all that matters. To hell with the rest of the world, they would say. As long as Americans ( most notably stock/bondholding Americans ) are prospering everything is just fine. In fact, they are so convinced of the importance of this concept that they embrace a corrupt American government's intervention in the free markets to protect a major hedge fund ( LTCM ) from collapsing, thereby ensuring that filthy rich American institutions and stock/bondholders will suffer no losses, thereby remaining...filty rich.

On the other hand, all those collapsing Asian and Latin economies with their native populations eating dogmeat and drinking their own piss...well, we all know what LGBugable's Wall Street "Bailey buddies" feel about that one...they just think those people got what they deserved owing to their goverments' failure to embrace proper "free" American-style markets ( Not! ) ...and furthermore, they think it's great because it provides deflationary benefits to Americans. Isn't that wonderful?

On the other hand, Goldbugs feel that a new global economic system must be created that allows greater equality amongst the community of nations.
They believe the US dollar based floating currency system is dysfunctional and doing nothing more than enriching a small sliver of the American population at the expense of the entire world's welfare. Goldbugs argue for a return to sanity in the markets...a standard by which the entire world can prosper, NOT just the United States.

So, I ask you this...just who are the real George Bailey's here...and who are the Potters?

LGBugablePotter...what do you think?

Oh, on second thought, who really're beyond hope.



John Disney
(Tue Oct 27 1998 03:36 - ID#24135)
Brother James ..
ah know as is a Baaad@ass ..
ah jes caint hep it .. fum de
souf you know..

to all
broker says western ares profits
OFF to 0.81 eps for the quarter
and Randfontein UP to 0.76 rand/share
since WA trades 20 and randfonts
16 .. these are fancy earnings ..
jci gold is good entry for WA

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Monday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates.
For Mon 26 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.80---------------1.49-------------1.45-----------------1.81
( Change ) ---- ( + 0.05 ) -------- ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ----------- ( + 0.04 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----4.35--------------3.70--------------2.75-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.87--------------1.52--------------2.22-----------------2.35
( Change ) ------ ( +0.05 ) -------- ( + 0.15 ) ------- ( + 0.13 ) ----------- ( + 0.11 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:16 - ID#284255)
Aurator@NZ got gas?
NZ Y2K projects in disarray

Gas producer left off Y2K taskforce list

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:21 - ID#284255)
Y2K tips can boost survival

"There is no silver bullet ( for a Y2K solution ) . It's not just lines of code, embedded systems or hardware," she said.

York points to major areas in a computer that are date-sensitive: the BIOS ( a personal computer's start-up program ) , the real-time clock, the operating system, and commercial off-the-shelf software and how that software interacts with other programs.

For example, a new Y2K-compliant program could have problems if it gets its time-date stamp from the real-time clock on an older non-Y2K-compliant computer.

How extensive is the problem? Forty-three percent of new computers sold today have Y2K problems, York said.

"Windows 98 still has problems, and earlier versions of Windows operating systems need to be upgraded. Windows NT 5.0 is OK if you install all its patches.

"The MacIntosh and its operating system are OK, but what software programs are you using?" York asked.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:24 - ID#284255)
32 Steps For Y2k Personal Preparedness

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:33 - ID#173196)
Now Who's Really Got All The Bucks?
Foreign Exchange Reserves Ranking
Source: HKMA, IMF, Reuters
US$BN As at end of
( 1 ) Japan 205.9 June 1998
( 2 ) China 140.5 June 1998
( 3 ) Hong Kong 96.5 June 1998
( 4 ) Taiwan 84.4 May 1998
( 5 ) Germany 84.3 May 1998
( 6 ) Brazil 73.4 April 1998
( 7 ) Singapore 72.0 May 1998
( 8 ) US 71.9 May 1998
( 9 ) Spain 68.4 May 1998
( 10 ) Italy 52.6 May 1998

Well, Greenspin's ahead of Spain & Italy. Now we're really

(Tue Oct 27 1998 04:44 - ID#248180)
&The Beat Goes On - Sinking Ships & Rats Jumping & Some are Pushed Off the Deck
TUESDAY OCTOBER 27 1998 From Financial Times London
Managed Funds 

Soros fund chief to take break amid shake-up
By William Lewis in New York
Nick Roditi, one of the world's leading hedge fund managers, is to step down from George Soros's Quantum group because of ill-health, prompting a restructuring at the $20bn hedge fund group.

Quantum has been hit by the Russian government's default in August and recent currency volatility, including the yen's surge against the dollar, according to market traders.

Mr Roditi's $1.7bn Quota Fund has performed poorly in recent months. It was 32 per cent ahead at the end of June, but has since fallen to be down 13 per cent for the year to date as of October 22.

In a letter to investors, Mr Soros described Mr Roditi's departure as temporary.

"Nick Roditi has had a previous health issue, and he has asked to take a rest as a precaution against any recurrence. We all hope that his absence will be of short duration," Mr Soros wrote.

He said Mr Roditi's temporary absence had prompted Quantum to merge two funds. In addition, Mr Soros is seeking to close the Quantum Emerging Growth Fund, which is down 31 per cent for the year to date and has a net asset value of $1.5bn. Investors in the QEG fund are to be offered cash or a special class of shares in the Quantum Fund, the group's flagship fund.

Mr Roditi is based in London and is reputedly one of the highest earners in the City of London. One US publication reported that he earned 80m ( $136m ) in 1996.

Since the Quota Fund's inception in January 1992, investors have enjoyed compound annual growth of 48 per cent, meaning that an initial investment of $100,000 would have been worth more than $1.4m on September 30.

Led by Mr Soros, the Quantum group has gained a reputation for consistently achieving a top level of investment performance. However, in recent months this reputation has taken a battering, with some of the group's highest profile funds suffering significant month-on-month losses.

In August, when the Quantum group disclosed its $2bn of Russian losses, the $8.7bn Quantum fund was up 20 per cent on the year to date. However it has also suffered monthly losses. On October 22 it was up 5 per cent for the year to date.

Together with the Quantum Industrial Holdings fund, QEG took the brunt of the losses - amounting to about $2bn - the Quantum group suffered this year from its Russian investments.

QIH is down 19 per cent for the year to date and as part of what Mr Soros calls a "significant corporate restructuring", it is being merged with Quasar International Fund, a $1bn fund currently managed by Mr Roditi.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 05:38 - ID#33184)

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:04 - ID#25174)
sharefin - y2k
On sunday all ATMs were down to my bank - due to daylight savings time trauma. If a scheduled trivial one hour time change can make this institution unreachable, y2k should be awesome to observe.
The boy scout motto is my survival strategy.

- au potter

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:09 - ID#26793)
China says its monetary policy will "ease"

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:13 - ID#43349)
"At the end of the day, a lot of Japanese companies are going to be thrown to the winds."

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:14 - ID#26793)
Nikkei going to below 10,000; "it will be fast, painful and scary"

Monkee Person
(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:30 - ID#350219)

You can remove Brasil from the list.

Paul Gold
(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:30 - ID#21484)
DROOY quarterly results
See the Durban Roodepoort Deep quarterly results before it is published in the press! The full report for the third quarter has been released only a few hours ago and is available at Cash operating profit is up 95%!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:32 - ID#26793)
Company purchases patent to use gold as international internet currency

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:40 - ID#26793)
MK gold says it will repurchase up to 10% (2 million) of its shares

(Tue Oct 27 1998 06:58 - ID#29048)
silver is @ $5.01 gold is @ 292.95 platinum @ $340

all pms are moving up

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:03 - ID#288466)
DROOY quarterly results

Profits 14.666 Million Rand
Shares: 56.155 Million ( common )
Currency conversion: 5.67988 Rand/USD
USD 0.046 / share

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted data from the quarterly statement.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:14 - ID#288466)
December Silver SIZ8 @ $5.03 is right on the downtrend line.
Any significant increase from here will probably be a breakout of the downtrend.

Bully Beef
(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:22 - ID#259282)
So ... gold goes up to 300 this week again and next week down to 291 and then...
and so on and so on and so on. Break out dang it! Breakout! Go golf!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:28 - ID#288466)

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:35 - ID#258302)
nov-25 is when last year gold went under 300 for the first time in a long time. i predicted it 6 monthes earlier on that day. maybe i got lucky -but i think we will see a big change nov 25 this year. all i know is it does not matter when it goes up - because it will . sooner or later because judging from the bible we are heading 4 a finacial disaster. i believe at that time we will be much better off than those without gold. of coarse im not telling anything new to most of you.but our greatest security will be in the one who made heaven and earth.He is called the G-D OF ISRAEL in the bible.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:37 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I think when the metals move
it will be sudden and take EVERYONE by surprise...sorta like the way a corpse explodes with maggots...the rot and stink in the markets is so far along...lies...deceipt...outright criminal activities by government and business around the globe...actually it is unfair of me to insult the maggots in relation to the governmental and business leaders that have knowingly committed this fraud and these crimes...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:40 - ID#252391)
Things are rather interesting
Here we have silver flirting with critical resistance at $5.03, PLAT up a couple of dollars looking like it may have seen its low - oil basis DEC at $14.53 looking quite good especially if it were to close above $14.56, the dollar only a little weaker and the DOW over night up 50 points.

Hats off to who ever it was a few nights ago that post the chart of the Mid AMerican Silver COntract and said it would lead the way. So far
that's what we are seeing.

Ok we know the drill by now - don't get excited at this juncture - in the next couple of hours "they" being the CABAL of hedge funds, central bankers and the FED in their various forms of actions will see to it that the precious metal rally - minor though it is - will be put back down before NY stocks open. It will be from there that the story will be told. If we can close firmly and above certain key points just above the best levels so far today I think we have something. A bottom in PT, a turn in silver ( though the volumn and Open interest evaluations are out ) and a minor turn in oil.

I for one am not chasing this opening but I will buy an early dip and follow a firm close.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:49 - ID#35571)
Jockeying for position
Globex up, bonds up, PM's up, oil up, only the dollar is down a bit.

Everybody getting ready for today's horse race.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:52 - ID#31868)
ahhhhhhhhhhhh...ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...scary ain't betcha...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:54 - ID#35571)
Market bug

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:54 - ID#228128)
Is Durban Deep going to pay a dividend this quarter?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:57 - ID#288466)

Silver to $4.50 ( if it gets turned back from here ) or $7 - $7.50.

User: hixson

Password: thmetal

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:58 - ID#35571)
Gold and Silver

(Tue Oct 27 1998 07:59 - ID#28472)
sharefin which bank?
just wondering which bank ?? by the way great page with many good links
good onya mate!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:13 - ID#35571)
Lies, damned lies, and statistics

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:20 - ID#35571)
Staying above "stall" speed

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:23 - ID#280346)

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:30 - ID#280346)
Sharefin et Y2K al
Woops - having problems with ISP
My daughter stood in line at ATM in Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia as BANK SA computers crashed. She was handed the 'phone with direct line to Bank HQ and given a half an hour "window" to withdraw the money she needed.
The computers were down from Friday 3.00 until Sunday PM at earliest, could have been Monday AM.
She was really p....d off and actually started a conversation with her paranoid ex-hippie father about the possible ramifications of "this millenium bug thing."

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:31 - ID#333126)
big losses in big Japanese companies

they scooped us again. dang. we gotta do better, kitcoites. go golf!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:36 - ID#371229)
@tolerant1 Don't hold back now, tell it like it is!!

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:38 - ID#33184)
Eye of that proverbial storm ?
$/mark has traded within a range of 30 points for the entire day.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:40 - ID#413109)
Thank you Jims
It isn't often one gets his ego boost so early in the day.
"Hats off to who ever it was a few nights ago that post the chart of the Mid AMerican Silver COntract and
said it would lead the way. So far
that's what we are seeing. "

BARUCH-Ha SHEM please email me

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:41 - ID#31868)
RAN, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
Wait till the third cup of coffee and Drambuie...yowzerrrrr...grrrrrr...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:41 - ID#333126)
love them CNN polls

unscientific or not, they sure have indicated great confidence so far! ( yeah right )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:48 - ID#119358)
@the exploding corpse........
and the green puss continues to spew forth from the treasury's rancid orifice.......know this, gOld is the only immunization you will need to save you from the hellish epidemic.

brother Oris......I'm a buyer'o'da golden would be my privilege, sir.

off to da' office to oooze oil. GO GOLDBUGS!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:49 - ID#261118)
Donald'n your nikkei post.... What would be the best way (read fund),
to go short the Japanese market. I've watched and partisipated in the Ursus fund you told me of and have had mixed results but I really agree with that take on Japan's latest comeback as just a dead cat bounce...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:51 - ID#28472)
@ tolerant1
have you got on board yet "leo" quarterly due thur/fri
would not want to miss the boat would you ? wini red and VB back at you!!


(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:51 - ID#28472)
@ tolerant1
have you got on board yet "leo" quarterly due thur/fri
would not want to miss the boat would you ? wini red and VB back at you!!


(Tue Oct 27 1998 08:58 - ID#333126)
it just keeps on truckin'

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:04 - ID#31868)
SandGropher, Namaste' gulp and a puff...I am unfamiliar with the quarterly you
refer to send me some info if you would...gulp in advance...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:08 - ID#119358)
@"Oh Ye of too much faith"...........
Who is this man'o'equity? I tell you now that he is the last man to make away from the Great Fire...and thus he will perish. Harken!!! oh ye of too much faith.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:13 - ID#258302)

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:16 - ID#31876)
More Conspiracy Stories - Including "Chocolate Mountain Gunnery Range Land and Mining Development"

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:18 - ID#369352)
Badger - Shorting the Nikki Index
You can buy puts on the Nikki just like the S&P options...all the major world indexes usually have these related index options...Best of luck!


(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:19 - ID#277224)
Placer Dome Gold(PDG-TSE)
Considering a few shares of Placer Dome this morning.
It has been down a bit ,but not drastically, since AU went
under 300.However it does seem like a very stable company.
I am looking for any comments.Do you think it is possibly
plausible to pool our collective wisdom on potential moves.
You know,good move-bad move to you are a bloody moron!!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:23 - ID#369352)
Carmack - Placer Dome
Put your money in DROOY instead...IMHO, it's a much better value ounce for ounce....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:24 - ID#213135)
Trading - Silver
I was stopped out of my short silver yesterday with a 3 cent loss. Silver has to close above 5.25 before the down trend is broken. Todays lack of follow thru is not positive. Sell Dec silver at 5.20 or a break of 4.85 objective still 4.40.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:33 - ID#277224)
Thanks for the response. ( I guess! ) Sorry for being such
a rookie, but what the hell is DROOY and IMHO???

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:34 - ID#371229)
Why Russian Gold Ruble Will Rule
Yesterday I made comments that the Russian gold ruble would rule from the the decimation of the currency wars. Today a little further clarification of my thoughts. Check Gollum and Donald's post @ 6:13 & 6:14 respectively, though it would come as no surprise to Kitcoites regarding the emminent demise of Japanese financials. The larger point being Japan has not bottomed and thus this now "cooled?" prospect of global meltdown has not bottomed. Japan,Asia,Australia,Latin America,Canada,United States, & Europe in that order will bottom.Noticeably missing from the group is Russia.

Why? They have already bottomed! This gives them a head start on the road to real recovery.

Furthermore they appear to be taking measures to decouple their currency from the American dollar and are pegging it to gold. As the new economic flagship to the world, they foretell the direction of future world economies yet to experience their bottoms..

Also yesterday on this site ( forgive my poor memory to afford proper credit- was it Allen? ) $3,300

POG was determined to be reasonable valuation. Who knows? But few Kitcoites, certainly, would have a difficult time imagining say $500-$750 in the face of a worldwide economic meltdown. So when ( and if ) that happens whose currency value is going to double, or even quadruple relative to the dollar--Russia.

Further because Russia is decoupling from the dollar they will not be accumulating same but will be buying gold while its cheap and while others are selling ( Argentina etc. ) to defend their currencies against the dollar.

When POG rises through the point of no return vis a vis all the hedge fund shorts its ascent will be rapid. When it is seen what this does for Russian economic recovery, the charge of the bull will be MIGHTY, and the casack warrior white horse from the land of northern snows will be leading the charge!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:39 - ID#369352)
Carmack -
DROOY is Durban Deep and a South African Gold company with more gold than the big North American Gold companies...IMHO stands for "In My Humble Opinion"...Best of luck...


(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:40 - ID#240241)
got my buy at 2 3/4, fingers crossed. xau nice jump up

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:40 - ID#45173)
DROOY is a SA ( South African ) mining company. All SA mining companies have funny names, for reasons no one can explain with certainty. IMHO means In My Humble Opinion and is added to the end of a statement to indicate that the poster does not want to be perceived as self-serious. IMHO.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:44 - ID#288466)

DROOY = Nasdaq symbol for Durban Roodeport Deep, a South African Gold mine, one of the most ( perhaps THE most ) leveraged gold mining companies ( to the price of gold ) . This is a favorite of Jim Blanchard's Gold Newsletter, who recently published a whole newsletter on the company - which was a followup from an issue in 1997.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:46 - ID#369352)
See SilverBaron's post at 7:03 this morning for financials on DROOY.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:48 - ID#210235)
Big Brother awards
Who's watching you?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:49 - ID#258427)
All you Drooy Fans
up 7/32 this morning in the first 15 minutes...not bad...

go up 1/16 as well...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:50 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 175.681 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 293.000 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 173.410 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 26 Oct 1998 ) : 291.450 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 2.9997 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0000 US Dollars

(Tue Oct 27 1998 09:56 - ID#277224)
Trader vic----EJ
I humbly thank you.This will be ( maybe ) the last question
for the time being but what is the symbol and on which
exchange or exchanges does it trade.One must love gold
stocks or be a little loonie but if you can hit some of
the many lows and highs ,get in, get out,ie. drive fast
it is possible to make or at least extract a few $$$$$.

( It being DROOY ) Thanks again!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:01 - ID#226284)
RANGY up 7% today: Kebble values minerals at $70 million plus....
Mr. Kebble ( RANGY CEO ) , recently stated the value of RANGYs mineral rights package alone was at least $70 million and could be double this figure. As he is in negotiations with a buyer of these mineral rights, apparently the buyer ( s ) are valuing these holdings in a similar manner. Again, this is nearly $2 a share for RANGY. Up over 7% this morning at the open--last trade 7/8.

Randgold has been behaving exceptionally well given the weakness in the POG and the bloody profit taking in Durban. Randgold will be doing a promotional tour of the U.S. in November. When people get the facts on this one, these cheap shares wont be around. Dont miss the boat guys

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:02 - ID#333126)
today's prime example of irrational exuberance

wonderful. up 20% today.

btw, i highly recommend goldbugs spend some time with the daytraders on irc. highly educational.

go to #daytraders on ( read their webpage at for more info )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:04 - ID#371367)
National Post article highlights $2000 target for bullion

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:09 - ID#348286)
@Thor - 10:04
Great Article..... Thanks

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:10 - ID#240241)
just broke 71 ( for the moment )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:11 - ID#430392)
Drooy Movin Up
Drooy up 1/4, good news travels fast.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:12 - ID#45173)
Evil technology
I ain't no Luddite, but this crosses the line.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:14 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
I have been away for a few days and have missed the Kitco postings. If you ever want to go hiking in Northwestern New York State, go to the Letchworth State Park. We did 13 miles on Saturday, then I had three quick Coors ( beer? ) and went out for a good dinner. We Canadians are tough or stupid.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index continues to decline. This continues as a warning of current weakness. The index has been declining very slowly for two weeks. It won't take much of an upturn to reverse this one. It is negative for now.

The Toronto Mining Issue new lows have been at 5 issues of less in seven of the last ten days. The worst was yesterday at a level of 7. This is a sign of good breadth.

The Toronto Gold Index trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is at 4953 this week. ( ^TGL on Yahoo ) The index is at 6192.
The 200 day MA for the Toronto Golds is at 6319, but the MA is rising. The 220 Day MA for gold is at 294.27 and rising. BOTH of these have broken. Caution is the word until they are penetrated to the upside.

I thought that DROOY was overpriced two weeks ago relative to Anglogold, so I did a switch. Drooy is down 30% and AU is down 4%. I may switch back.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:14 - ID#288466)
Got Derivatives? CFTC wants to know how deep your pockets are...
CFTC Demands Details of OTC Derivatives, Hedge Funds

Washington, Oct. 26 ( Bloomberg ) -- The Commodity Futures
Trading Commission has demanded futures brokers disclose
their exposure to unregulated derivatives after the near
collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that lose $4 billion.

CFTC regulators want to know whether firms have enough
capital to cover potential losses from over-the-counter
derivatives, and also are demanding information about the finances of related companies and fund investors.

The request, in a letter sent last week, is the latest to raise concern in the derivatives industry, which opposes regulation of the $30 trillion market for financial instruments that don't trade on any exchanges and often are one-on-one transactions. ``Letters asking for extensive reporting are never going to be popular with futures commission merchants,'' said Barbara Wierzynski, general counsel of the Futures Industry
Association, which represents futures brokers.

While the FIA didn't endorse the request, the organization helped write the CFTC letter, which members said scaled back demands from an earlier letter this month. The new request avoids seeking information from companies registered with other federal regulators.

The current request doesn't seek as much detail about the activities of customers and their actual holdings of over-the-counter derivatives, whose value is tied to underlying assets such as commodities, currencies, stocks and bonds.

`Less Offensive'

The second letter is ``substantially less offensive,'' said committee member Gary DeWaal, general counsel at FIMAT USA, the futures arm of Societe Generale. ``It much more closely tracks the law than before.''

It's the latest move by the CFTC in its call for closer scrutiny and more disclosure about derivatives, which has raised opposition from other regulators.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan told
Congress no regulation is needed even as CFTC Chairman Brooksley Born says the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management LP shows the need for more disclosure.

As Born pressed her case, Congress blocked the CFTC from
proposing new restrictions on OTC derivatives before March 30, 1999. Criticism of the CFTC comes at a vulnerable time for the agency, which faces a congressional review next year that will determine its future.

While the CFTC clearly has jurisdiction over most derivatives that trade on exchanges, known as futures and options, regulation of OTC derivatives is unclear and split between the CFTC, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Treasury Department. The Fed oversees state-chartered banks' activities, which can include OTC derivatives dealing.


That's left unanswered questions about whether futures
brokers must comply with the CFTC request. ``I'm not sure firms will be able to comply 100 percent,'' DeWaal said.

The CFTC's five-page letter asks futures brokers to provide information about any futures or OTC derivatives accounts a ``materially affiliated person'' holds with the broker, according to a copy obtained by Bloomberg News. A ``materially affiliated person'' is an institution very closely tied financially or
operationally to the futures broker.

For example, Merrill Lynch Futures Inc. is a futures merchant registered with the CFTC. Merrill, Lynch & Co., the parent company, would be a materially affiliated person. ``The CFTC is trying to find out, if someone went down, would it have a major effect on the company,'' DeWaal said, noting that a major lender could also be a materially affected person even if
it weren't part of the same overall company as the futures broker.

The letter asks futures brokers to report by Nov. 5 any gains or losses in the proprietary futures accounts a MAP has with the broker, between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 1998. Also, the CFTC wants information on gains or losses in the broker's own OTC derivatives activities.

Financial Statements

Brokers must also submit, for the last quarter, their own financial statement and statements for any MAP not registered with a different federal or foreign financial regulator.

The CFTC also asks for the last report filed with the SEC by any member of the Derivatives Policy Group, which includes CS First Boston; Goldman, Sachs & Co.; Lehman Brothers; Merrill; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.; and Salomon Smith Barney.

The SEC last week took a step beyond the DPG, a voluntary reporting system, by creating a new class of derivatives dealers that could register with the SEC under lighter capital, margin and reporting requirements than a traditional broker-dealer. Currently, most securities firms engage in OTC derivatives activities in unregistered U.S. or overseas affiliates.

Finally, the CFTC letter last week asked for any material losses or defaults by hedge funds, pension funds or commodity pools that are customers of the futures broker. The agency also wants the August and September monthly statements for hedge funds with over $100 million initial margin requirement.

Born has said that the roughly $4 billion of losses Long- Term Capital Management incurred, partially due to OTC derivatives, show the need for closer regulatory scrutiny.``There is an immediate and pressing need to address possible regulatory protections in the OTC derivatives market,'' she said Friday in a speech at the Brookings Institution.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:18 - ID#333126)
sharefin @ swing charts
those charts are gonna look *very* toppy if today's rally keeps up.


wonder what swing charts for other things look like - gold, bonds, crude ... stuff like that...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:24 - ID#240241)
gold up $1.05 xau 71.46

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:25 - ID#333126)
chicken-man @ bond put train tickets
looks toppy today. what do you think?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:28 - ID#34459)
Premiums going up Fast
GDay to all....Checked with a couple of big Bullion dealers late yesterday and found actual Physical stuff is not in great supply anywhere and the Premiums over spot on 24kt metal and .9999 silver are edging ever upward.....Tells me POG is not real world.........real people, individuals, are trying to buy and cannot find the metal in quantity. .........Stay tuned for some XAU Trivia in the very near future.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:31 - ID#34459)
Comments were meant for Coins
The last post was meant for Coins and not for Refinery Bars

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:47 - ID#410194)
Gold, Silver and Platinum
Interesting morning analysis from "Hightower Report":

"GOLD: It would seem that a logical resting point would be 290.0 to 290.4 in the December contract with neither side too much in control at this point. In the last week two large producers have posted record production and the Dollar has been extremely strong which in a way shows the gold isn't extremely weak either. Homestake mines did report a decline of production of 1.8% which serves to counter the increased output of the others. The big changes in the last 2 weeks are lessening anxieties toward India and Japan possibly getting a foothold in its crisis. In any regard, we would not expect any hedgers to begin lifting hedges until a trade below 290."

"SILVER: Dealer buying surprised the local trade in silver and caused some significant short covering with some thinking a trade above 500 is possible off technicals alone. With that type of move and little corresponding action in other metals the rally has to be suspect. The fact that the Indian silver market followed with a gain is good supporting news. The suddenly firm price gain caught some industrials off guard and forced them to chase the market overnight which is also a good sign that demand remains a factor if only gold could be that responsive."

"PLATINUM: Dealers are talking that normal Christmas demand in Japan could firm up Patinum prices because dealers in Japan have not bought ahead as they normally do beause of the severe financial conditions. Nice rounded bottom on the charts help speak of a low as does better press for Japanse leadership."

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:49 - ID#45173)
@Thor and All
Good post on gold @ $2,000.

"Since 1980, the Bank of Canada is reported to have slashed its gold reserves by more than 85% to 88 tonnes, followed by similar destabilizing sales by Belgium, Australia, Argentina and the recent proposal by Switzerland to sell up to one-third of its reserves, pending a referendum."

If CBs have been selling gold, someone's been buying it. But who?

"...reports of surplus oil revenues among Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries members being used to hoard gold."

My favorite theory is that this process of selling by CBs and buying by oil producers has continued for twenty years, with oil exporters buying gold slowly so as to keep the price down, slowly accumulating a vast supply to use in the future as a weapon against the financial doctrine that requires them to sell their precious oil for inflated dollars. This intriguing conspiracy theory suggests that at some point the oil producers stop accepting dollars but only gold and gold-backed securities as payment for oil. They'd instantaneously explode the price of two commodities that they hold in enormous reserves. And it doesn't require an agreement among producers on production quotas, the main reason oil is so cheap, only on the use of gold as money for payment.

If this theory has any basis, then where might the evidence be? What event would cause the oil producers to pull the trigger?


(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:50 - ID#28882)
National Post article - Phil Spicer, eh?

Mr. Spicer is an old timer, been around forever. A "believer", so to speak. His son Stefan is taking over day-today operations at the Central Fund these days.

Chad Williams is more of a Company Man, surprised to see him making such outlandish and provocative statements. Kind of guy who always handed in his assignments on time.

Name dropping, fwiw.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:52 - ID#334219)
Gold $2000?
The Financial Post reports in the lead finance story in its Tuesday edition
that gold bullion may return to its glory days, and a price of $2,000
( U.S. ) an ounce is seen as feasible. Reporter Ian Karleff says that
economic chaos and international conflict are a boon for gold, a refuge of
panic money, so it is no wonder that metal and gold stocks have fared
miserably in the face of relative stability and a seemingly unstoppable
equity bull. Gold mining shares usually move anticipatory to the price of
bullion, on the upside or the downside, suggesting that the steep rise in
gold mining shares may be anticipatory to a rise in the price of bullion,
according to Philip Spicer, president of Central Fund of Canada. The
long-time believer in the monetary importance of bullion believes that a
feasible price for gold is $2,000 ( U.S. ) an ounce, taking into account the
decline in the United States currency's purchasing power since the U.S.
Federal Reserve Board was created in 1914.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:54 - ID#30345)
currency report from daytraders
Daily Currency Briefing, 10/27/98

The dollar rose dramatically yesterday against the DM and other Europeans

when Italy announced its long-awaited rate cut, bigger than expected at 100

bp. Sterling took a huge hit as traders decided not to support the crossrate

ahead of next week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Deutsche Bank's

chief economist Walter was the latest non-Bundesbank figure to say that "

the call for lower interest rates in Europe is justified from an economic point of

view. It is true that German growth is slumping and the global economic trend

is soft. Room for a rate cut exists and should be used in light of price stability."

Walter criticized Schroeder and Lafontaine as "tactically wrong" for trying to

compromise the independence of the BBK and ECB, and said historical

precedence shows lax monetary policy never solves unemployment. The Wall

Street Journal this morning correctly sums up the state of play--the real risk in

Europe today is politicization of monetary policy with threats of FX target

zones and relaxation of Maastricht fiscal criteria. Bank of Italy Gov Ciampi

contributed to this mood by saying there is "ample knowledge" that the level of

core European interest rates could still come down.

In Japan, various officials of the Obuchi government confirmed that a special

2-week Diet session will be called for late November after all, probably Nov

27, implying that it has found allies among opposition parties for a third

supplementary budget. EPA head Sakaiya will chair cabinet meetings on Nov

4 and 16 to finalize another stimulus package. As always, the amount is a

moving target. Sakaiya did say the new plan will have direct and immediate

effects. Separately, the LDP Secretary General announced that it will

seriously consider the "gift coupon" idea of the Komei party in an amount of

Yen 4 trillion, or about $254 per person. The final package this time is

therefore likely to be as much as Yen 10 trillion. The Nikkei was unimpressed,

and fell 22.78 points to close at 13,820.68 for the third day of declines.

In emerging markets, something is happening in Russia and we don't know

what it is. Yesterday Primakov elbowed Yeltsin aside for a 2-week rest in a

sanatorium for "nervous exhaustion" and took his place at the EU-Russia

summit in Vienna today, shortened from two days by the Russians. Primakov

said he won't beg for food but contributions of $1.5 billion in food and

humanitarian aid would be accepted.

Chase reported that China failed to make payment of a $8.75 million coupon

due yesterday at 5 pm on a $200 million Yankee bond issued by GITIC in

October 1996 and maturing in 2016. China said there will be a 90-day

moratorium on GITIC's obligations when GITIC was closed October 6, so now

we know that the moratorium extends beyond loans to bonds. Technically, this

is the first Chinese sovereign default in almost 50 years. Reports are vague,

but it looks like Chase is giving China a 10-day grace period to make the

payment while it figures out whether it really wants to be tagged with the

"sovereign default" label. GITIC has at least $800 million in long-term debt,

$350 million in dollar-denominated bonds, and $55 billion in yen-denominated

samurai bonds, most issued since 1994.

Outlook: Russia is the largest country in the world by land-mass and China is

the largest country in the world by population. Even if China comes up with the

GITIC coupon this time, default is in the air. We may see an early exit from

emerging markets paper of all stripes in anticipation of another round of

devaluations and bank and corporate failures, even in countries that seemed

to be making good progress ( Korea, Taiwan ) . It goes without saying that the

World Bank and IMF simply don't have the funds, not to mention support of

their economic management theories, to effect a quick fix. Normally this would

suggest a flight to quality in US governments, but this time flows may be partly

diverted to Europe in a fresh wave of enthusiasm for the euro. With the BBK

ever more likely to give us a rate cut as its swan song, however, the US may

be the currency of choice if we can assume that the third Fed rate cut is

already priced in. That's a pretty big "if". Traders note that the dollar rose

almost 200 points against the DM on the Bank of Italy rate cut announcement,

but it is still capped around 1.67, only one pfennig higher than earlier

resistance, and against the yen, it is still capped just below 120. As we wrote

last week, we are buying into this dollar upward correction but have serious

doubts about how far it will go and how long it will stay firm. Additional

incendiary remarks from French and German politicians may do the trick, for

a while.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 10:57 - ID#28882)
Silver spreads miniscule - Buy!

Dec-Mar down to a fraction of what is normal. Indicates high physical demand, perhaps reflecting holiday buying and very firm demand form India.

Ever since liquidity became scarce, the spreads have been a good an indicator as any re future price movements. Forget your triangles, waves and pig entrails -- keep your eyes on the fundamentals and act accordingly.

Loading up,


John Disney
(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:03 - ID#24135)
I love drooy but ..
and ..
I havent really seen their earnings yet .. but IF
they are only Rd 0.25/share .. thats not really that
great ..

compare .. format share, eps, price in rands.

wes-areas, 0.81,20
anglogold, 5.0,285
dries, 0.68,35
harmony, 1.14,27

Im buying back some of the Harmony I sold off for
a small gain .. same for randfonts, buying anglovaal
via the e-dagga buy out I described earlier .. and
JCI gold for a cheap buy of wes-areas.
Im holding rangold but at this price preferably
adding CAM since IT holds rangold and trades at a discount
to NAV valuing rangold at market.
but you can see from the above that on an earnings
basis, Harmony makes 4.5 times drooy's earning ..
That says they should be 60 rands plus .. I could live
with that.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:05 - ID#410194)
I understand what you are saying ( your post of yesterday ) and if you are really doing it the way you say you are doing it, it's wise and you put yourself in a position from which you will not suffer too much if things don't go your way. Being a prudent day trader myself, I relate to your thinking regarding the risk/reward scenario in case of a crash.

Now, there is a huge difference between playing with some odds the way we do and what some "gurus" are saying by betting in a big way on a crash that will be here "by the end of September" or "by October 12-16", or for those who are warning of a "Gold short squeeze by Monday".

Sure, it's their right to do so, just as it's our right to bring it up as reminders!

It looks to me that you are a very prudent investor/trader and the numbers you use are appealing because not only you don't lose the farm without a crash but most importantly, you get to keep your "confidence" and "self-respect" no matter what, two key ingredients in this very complex world of investing/trading.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:05 - ID#277224)
Trader Vic
Picked up a few shares of DROOY.Up about 9% for the day.
PDG up around 7%.Have everything crossedXXXXXXX .ABX also
up.Thanks all for info.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:09 - ID#34459)
Decision Time at Hand
All of you fans of the XAU, take notice ,yesterdays intraday low of 67.44 could be significant..As I posted last night at 19.32 hrs EDT here the XAU has made a 50% pullback as of yesterdays close of the recent buul run up...This 50% area is frequently an ideal time to take positions.It was said the late W.D. Gann made a lot of money buying 50% pullbacks. In any event the bears will have to take it lower than 67.44 to prove their case........TRIVIA TIME...........
XAU TRIVIA TIME...Who can state the exact amount the XAU moved either up or down during the crash of Oct 19th 1987. The first winner can lay claim to a choco-chip cookie as a prize..........

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:12 - ID#429363)
stock market
the us stock market is looking strong. I am beginning to feel that the bottom is in. I have tried to find out what the 200 day moving average of the cash s&p is. I calculated it out by hand this weekend and came up with 1071.23 for the close on friday. can someone confirm that this is correct? Can someone tell me where to find this information with out calculating it by hand? It took a couple hours for me to do. Never again. Investors business daily has a 200 DMA on the chart of the cash S&P, but they do not state ( That I know of ) what that line is ( The EXACT number? ) . It seems like i'm at least close but I like to be exact not close.

thanks in advance


by the way it looks like gold should go to what ever level is required to stop out the funds who are long. After all we just went to $305 and stopped all the shorts out so the 'Market' will now go after the other side. This point is below $290.0, that much I'm sure of so be careful.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:16 - ID#34191)
So, just how high does a dead cat bounce? Will we see a crash this week....
well maybe, but only if we can blame it on the Republican Congress. That's why we got IMF funding at the last minute, to point the blame of financial collapse away from the Congress. So now we watch as the dead cat bounces to where 9000, 10000? Ain't our Pres. great! Middle East peace, best economy in 50 years, and ooooh so sexy. GAG, GAG, better put your boots on cowboys 'cause **it is getting deep.

I've got it, let's blame y2k on the Republicans in Congress that ought to be good enough to create a Democrat sweep in 2000.

go gold, go bearx. bearx, bearx, are you still there, speak to me.....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:17 - ID#34459)
Glenn----Cash SPX
The 200 day MA as of last nit for cash spx-500 is 1066.45

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:17 - ID#266105)
longj (currency report from daytraders)

Good summary.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:18 - ID#147201)
Realistic re trading
How about emailing me. Many thanx, Charlie

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:22 - ID#429363)
cobra are you sure? How can I be so off. How did you get the number? Did you calculate it by hand or from a source?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:23 - ID#410194)
Your post of yesterday afternoon at 15:51... EXACTLY!!

By the way, let' keep waching the interesting action in Silver eh?

The jury is still out whether it will re-visit it's lows of the year or not but if this turns out successful, this is what trading is! Only a few of these kinds of huge potential ( and limited risks ) bets can make a year to remember.

I remember you did invest for the long term in Silver at very low prices last summer.

Date: Thu Oct 15 1998 13:47
Realistic ( Silver? ) ID#410194:
With a great deal of anxiety taken out of the day to day worldwide business gyrations ( for now anyway ) , Silver will have to be watched!

The very tight Comex warehouse inventory situation could be brought back to the front burner at anytime now and there is a possibility of a quick price adjustment upwards in the near future.

Short term and day traders even have the luxury of protecting long futures positions in the 470-475 area. ( December contract )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:26 - ID#30345)
I think the dead cat will bounce when the dow exceeds the nikkei.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:27 - ID#34459)
Glenn:RE SPX-500 Cash
I am running SUPERCHARTS by Omega Reserch and the prices are updated daily and I have several studies programed into the system 100 Day and 200 Day are two of them..........

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:27 - ID#369352)
COBRA - XAU move during 1987 crash
The XAU moved both up and down as gold went limit up ( $25 ) then limit down ( $25 ) and the XAU followed the move in gold...I believe that it was +10 then down 10.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:30 - ID#333126)
anyone mentioned the 100GB bug yet?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:31 - ID#269409)
@ MM...Russian Gold for Vodka
Re your post yesterday about what kind of exchage commodity, such as VODKA, Russia might be able to muster for hard currency...and to boost it's Gold reserves.

Have you not heard about the "Gold for Vodka" theory? Oh yes, I have it on good authority that behind the scenes, machievellian machinations have made it clear that Russia is trading massive amounts of Stoli's, through little known trade channels to boost it's reserves.

Do you not realize that Vodka and Gold will never flow in the same direction? The Rubin and Greenspan ones, and their co-conspirators will not succeed in their quest to keep Gold low. VODKA will not stand a price below $280.00 For rouble boosting, the Stolichnaya Warehouse of international settlements will OPENLY release the Vodka floodgates if Gold falls below $280.00....

All paper will burn, and this especially when VODKA is thrown on it, for further fueling. VODKA sends a NEW message now. "Bring Gold back to the $320 to $360 level". As Vodka's bid for Gold increases, I expect a panic that will lead to all out "crush to intoxication". This will be hard, as Gold makes it's all out run to infinity by year end.

Let us watch together, this new Stoli market ( and Gold market ) which is NASB.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:33 - ID#34459)
XAU TRIVIA answer will be posted at11.50 EDT Come on all you serious gold bugs, dig it up.....waiting to give away that choco-chip cookie..

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:36 - ID#333126)
EBAY mania ... smells of tulips

if stock analysts saying the price of a stock "should be" whatever in such and such a time is all that is necessary for a stock to go up, I suggest we float Kitco ( we all get pre-IPO stock, of course ) and keep feeding the media stories about how much higher our company stock price "should be".

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:37 - ID#269409)
@ Realistic....
Thank you! And keep up the good work on those retrospectives. I'm not sure why they are so "offensive" to so many,,,but I suspect that if ( by some miracle ) we were in teh middle of a long bull market in Gold, and some stock guru came here every three months to predict a "Gold crash" based on eclipses and such...and you posted retrospectives of that persons previously failed "Eclispe / Gold crash" predictions.....

You'd hear nary a PEEP of indignant protestation!

However, is spite of the buzzing of gnats, you're carrying on in excellent tradition and with meticulously appropriate timing. After all...this IS the final week of the latest round of Puetz predictions that was to lead to the all out "Crash / blood in the streets" no later than the end of October.

Onward! ( Where oh WHERE are my Ebay shares! )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:38 - ID#432130)
Cowgirl...11:16 Posting...
BEARX bet the farm on a staedy Bear errosion of the market. However, due to government intervention, which I think goes way beyond Fed interest rate cuts, and goes into the realm of illegal allocation of public monies, has caused an artificial Dow valuation. We all know the true value of the Dow is about 6400, but the government is trying anything and everything to secure the Dow at above 8000. And I will insist that much of their efforts are not legal. I will also insist their efforts will be successful until the Sring when a new round of bad news will bring us right back to this same mess.

My point being that I have become convinced that because BEARX was certain of a continual Bear errosion of the Dow, it will now suffer losses through Dec '98. So yesterday I bailed out of BEARX with a profit of $69.00. In other words I got out by the skin of my teeth.

For those of you who own BEARX and disagree with my perception of the situation, I truly hope I am wrong for your sake.

: )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:38 - ID#277224)
Good post.Nice and cynical.That way one is never that far from the
truth.Give em hell.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:40 - ID#240241)
just up over 72 ( for the moment )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:42 - ID#45173)
Russia makes formal request for US food
aid - USDA

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - Russia has made a formal request
for U.S. food aid and U.S. officials will soon go to Moscow for
follow-up discussions, a U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service aide said

Maureen Quinn, a spokeswoman for FAS, said Russia made its ``formal
request yesterday.''

However, Quinn could not say what commodities Russia requested. ``At this point, that's all we have,'' she said.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:43 - ID#222186)
Glenn, Cobra
According to LiveCharts, the 200-day simple moving average for SPX.X is 1071.32. The 200-day exponential MA is 1052.557

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:44 - ID#371229)
Fed policies still too tight, POG & other commodities viv a vis CRB index too low

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:47 - ID#411320)
@John Disney, Drooy is good but Golden STAR better
Take a look at golden star resources, it has the largest gold mine
in South American has 11 million in cash no debt, trades between
1 and 2.00 per share and has a potential of about $19.00 a share.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:49 - ID#339274)
Fwiw pullback for a couple of hours.XAU fills 72.3.
Nice trading this morning, gold still weak.Plat is out of the

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:50 - ID#34459)
Glenn---SPX Cash
Glenn...have rechecked....100 day ma is 1078.63 and declining and 200 day ma is 1066.45 and still rising slightly... guess you can't trust computers.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:52 - ID#280214)
CC - Gold at $2000? For how long can it stay there?
Only if the average miner's wages reach $100 per hour.
I have posted expert opinions by miners and industry watchers on this matter in the last month or two. If the POG doubles and wages do not then dormant mines will be re-opened, new mines will be developed, "waste" piles will be reworked, and new processes will be applied - all resulting in huge increases in Gold production IF the POG stays high enough ( US$500+, long enough ( 2+ years ) . Unless demand for Gold rises commensurately, then the POG will fall back to another equilibrium ( more or less ) . Thus the POG will stay above US$1000 only if the dollar's value drops or the demand soaks up the increased production.

If a Y2K precipitated depression sinks wages to a tenth of what they are today ( purchasing power - not $ ) then I know of a lot of miners who will work at those wages just to feed their families. Thus the cost of production will fall and with it, theoretically, the price of Gold. But, as we all know, the POG is manipulated or "fixed" - almost irrespective of supply and demand. The question is how long and to what degree can these powers prevent the POG from attaining "normal" prices.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:54 - ID#333126)
CNBC rumour of brazil 10% devaluation
dow just went red


(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:55 - ID#31868)
oh my darlin...oh my darlin...oh my darrrrrrrrrlin paradigm...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:56 - ID#34459)
Well here it is...For all of you who really care.
On Oct 19th 1987 the HI--LO--Cls fot the XAU was-----140.68 Hi...117.06 Lo...117.37 Cls... Minus 14.10 on the day..

But on the next day Oct 20th it fell another 21.30 points to close at 96.07...All of this carnage while gold was relatively unafected on the week..
So There you have it ..A mass PANIC

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:57 - ID#339274)
FWIW.Sell signal still in ,looking for 1060

(Tue Oct 27 1998 11:58 - ID#45173)
ravenfire - Why hadn't the DOW already priced on the Brazil devaluation of the Real
I can't figure it. The largest National newspaper in Brazil this weekend had an editorial cartoon that summarizes Brazilian popular sentiment about an IMF bailout: Brazil is depicted as a drowning man with the IMF throwing him a noose.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:00 - ID#240241)
just up over 73 ( for the moment )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:01 - ID#30345)
US moving toward the Silicon Standard
In an effort ot imrove liquidity and further debase the nations currency, and becuase the paper producers are anticipating a shortage of rags for rag paper..........

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:03 - ID#333126)
tolerant1 @ karaoke singing
sir, you crack me up.

Namaste' to you and a big gulp. tequila, yes?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:09 - ID#34459)
XAU up 6.00%
Well guys,the train is pulling out of the station...are you aboard?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:10 - ID#30345)
Even the day traders are on to you. found this one on their short page.

John B
(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:16 - ID#77133)
Gold Equity Turnaround?
Why the positive turnaround today? Is this a response to the inflationary reduction of the Italian discount rate from 5% to 4% and other talk of decreasing interest rates in Europe? Or is this a corrective bounce? XAU now up about 4 points - not bad!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:17 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...yup...uh huh...yowzer...
The private citizen who employs culpable practices to acquire power can act in a manner only indirectly prejudicial to the public prosperity. But if [the president] descends into the combat, the cares of government dwindle for him into second-rate importance, and the success of his election is his first concern. All public negotiations, as well as all laws, are to him nothing more than electioneering schemes; places become the reward of services rendered, not to the nation, but to its chief; and the influence of the government, if not injurious to the country, is at least no longer beneficial to the community for which it was created. --Alexis de Tocqueville

Visit The Federalist at:

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:18 - ID#258273)
I agree with your opinion that a high price in gold would not be sustained for too terribly long. My family and I have made several placer claims in Montana. While it is only practical to go after the more concetrated deposits, we have dozens of acres at 1/2 ounce per yard. If gold goes much higher we can make real good money without having to capitalize a large mining operation. Lots of folks like us will come out of the wood work to sell into a price spike.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:21 - ID#31868)
ravenfire, Namaste' and a gulp and a puff to ya...Tequila...Oh Yes...uh huh...
Cuervo Gold is the standard fare...while special occasions are reserved for tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor...thud...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:29 - ID#238422)
"Vodka for Gold" deal...I like it...I really like it...
It is not this dirty, smelling and non-drinkable oil for
gold deal...
Rushing to the store to stockpile some currency....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:30 - ID#350179)
Nope, stuck up here on the ridge.
Waiting to see if it can make it up the hill to 75 - or if it slides back on the rails. Go little XAU engine, go!

LGB - ANOTHER insightful revelation. Aye, truly liquid assets ( and volatile too ) . We will watch this new Vodka market together, No?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:31 - ID#45173)
Bank Consolidation? But whatever for?
Fed's Ferguson Says Expects More Consolidation In U.S. Banking Industry

Mike Stewart
(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:39 - ID#270253)
I own some Golden Star, not for its quality, but because it always gets pumped up by newletters during gold bull markets. They have small projects with small reserves that are viable outside of Omai ( and they only have 30% of that ) . They have 30 million shares outstanding and always sell lots of shares when the conditions are favorable. Have fun with trading this one during any gold moves, but don't fall in love with it.

John B
(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:41 - ID#77134)
XAU Rebound
Could be related to the CNCB rumor that Brazil will announce devaluation of their currency ( Real ) today. Haven't heard any other news report about this.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:41 - ID#43185)
Getting close
About fifteen minutes to go....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:44 - ID#334219)
Annual production of gold is irrelevant in the long term price of gold.

There are two main factors that dictate the price of gold:

1 ) The mood of the market: Are investors of this world ready to buy gold ? The answer to this is still NO...but I feel this is slowly the end of 1999, the answer might be a explosive YES

2 ) How much money is now available to buy this gold. As I explained in a recent article on golden-eagle, the number of ounces of gold available for purchasing by the currencies of this world has grown by a small 2% per year since the days when gold went to $850 in the early 1980's. Back then, the total market capitalization of all the gold miners and above ground gold ( including you gold ring as well as all the bars held by all CB's ) was more or less $700-$750 billions. Today, after 30,000 tons of new production it is a bit more than $1 trillion. During that time, the amount of currencies ( money supplies ) available to buy this gold explode by a factor of more than 10.

In short, when investors shift their mind and decide they want some gold, gold prices will explode by a factor of 10 no matter what happen to annual production.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:46 - ID#333126)
gollum @ 15 minutes
just which levers are you pulling this time, sir?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:46 - ID#43185)
Another Japanese company

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:55 - ID#212323)
Thanks for taking the time to say that which needed to be said.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:56 - ID#43185)
I thought maybe I'd start with the one with the silver handle.

John B
(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:57 - ID#77134)
I agree with your main points but would add a third factor that has influenced our market for a long-term. The gold float ( day-to-day supply ) has apparently increased considerably. Central bank "lendng" and forward sales, both unknown factors when gold hit $800+ in the eighties, have greatly suppressed or placed a ceiling on the POG. We need some strong fundamental expectations ( e.g., inflation ) to kick-start gold upwards along with real physical uptake.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:59 - ID#25490)
Test -- When the Eagle flies

(Tue Oct 27 1998 12:59 - ID#254288)
Occasionally looking over Golden Stars releases,

I've never seen numbers in GSR press releases that would indicate sales from that 30% interest. Omai is a fairly large mine and 30% of its sales would make a visable dollar figure.
Is the cash flow generated by the 30% interest going to pay for that 30% interest?

John B
(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:02 - ID#77134)
Brazil Central Bank
denies they will devalue currency, according to CNBC a few minutes ago.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:03 - ID#269128)
got the green....good to go
topping out around $305 gold....$5.93 silver on this one.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:06 - ID#350179)
Hope these aren't redundant
Soros To Shut $1.5 Bln Emerging Markets Hedge Fund

NEW YORK  International financier George Soros says he plans to close his $1.5 billion emerging markets hedge fund, which has dropped about 31 percent in value so far this year, and that Nick Roditi, who runs two other Soros' funds, was temporarily leaving for medical reasons.

Brazil to unveil austerity plan amid grumbles

President Fernando Henrique Cardoso Cardoso was scheduled to make a televised speech at 8 p.m. local time ( 2200 GMT ) in which he will give a broad outline of steps to cut the budget and raise taxes, a spokeswoman for the presidency said.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:09 - ID#269128)
Gollum: financial hurricane update....
catastrophic destructive force...better than category 5......
northeast eye-wall to make markets/currencies fall further.....
expected time of impact ...late insurance.... ( gold )
leave the area ( sell stocks/bonds )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:10 - ID#334219)
John B
Of course you are right, these forward sales and CB's leasing have cause an increase in the annual float. That is why the price of gold is $300 instead of $400 or $500... But their absence would not have cause gold to rise to $ is the relative increase in available currencies to buy gold that will make the difference in the end.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:11 - ID#25490)

Like a charm, it woiks.

golden-eagle, goldeagle.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:20 - ID#43185)
What time does the daily dumping ceremony start?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:22 - ID#269128)
Brazilian currency gets real in face of hedge fund hyenas..
Tuesday October 27, 1:01 pm Eastern Time

US debt analysts say Brazil devaluation unlikely

By Hugh Bronstein

NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - Rumors circulating in financial markets that Brazil would devalue its
currency, the real, by 10 to 20 percent seemed unfounded, U.S.-based emerging market debt analysts
said on Tuesday.

Talk that Brazil might effectively devalue by widening the real's trading band hurt emerging market
debt prices on Tuesday morning, traders said.

Benchmark Brazil C bonds were down about one point midday Tuesday to bid 62-1/4.

``We think the rumors may have been started by investors who had taken short positions in the market that would benefit from the market moving
down,'' said Esteban Medrano, an emerging debt analyst at I.D.E.A, an economic research firm that provides data to commercial and central

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:24 - ID#341227)
TVX Feasibility Studies Just Released....



OCTOBER 27, 1998

TVX Gold Inc. - Greek Projects Feasibility Studies

TORONTO, ONTARIO--TVX Gold Inc. is pleased to announce the
completion of bankable feasibility studies for its Olympias and
Skouries projects in Greece. Together, the projects are expected
to produce an average of 410,000 ounces of gold and 2 million
ounces of silver per year for the first five years after they come
into operation, anticipated in 2001. Combined net cash operating
costs are projected to be below US$75 per ounce of gold for this
period, depending on prices for metal byproducts.

The final feasibility study on the Olympias polymetallic project
was completed in the second quarter by Kvaerner Metals. The study
estimates construction costs of US$225 million ( in mid-1998 terms )
before confirmed European Union grants of up to US$70 million. The
mine life exceeds 15 years, based on proven and probable reserves
of 11.8 million tonnes containing 3.0 million ounces of gold and
41.8 million ounces of silver ( approximately 800,000 ounces of
gold equivalent ) . Additional resources and potential extensions to
the orebody should extend the life to over 20 years.

Production levels for the first five years, when existing tailings
and stockpiled concentrates are being retreated, will be
approximately 210,000 ounces of gold and 2 million ounces of
silver per year. The cash operating cost during this period is
forecast to be less than US$125 per ounce of gold, net of
byproduct credits for silver, zinc and lead at current metals


The financial returns for Olympias are presented using three
distinct metal pricing scenarios:


( after tax, 100 percent equity financing, sunk costs excluded )

Base Recent Historic
Prices Prices Prices ( 1 )

Gold $350 $300 $375
---- ---- ----
IRR 16.5 8.3 17.8
percent percent percent

NPV at 5 percent
( $million ) $117 $29 $128
Payback ( years ) 3.4 5.1 3.1
Cash operating cost/oz
First 5 years $105 $125 $116
Byproduct prices
Silver/oz $5.50 $5.00 $5.00
Zinc/lb $0.55 $0.465 $0.55
Lead/lb $0.25 $0.235 $0.22

1. Relates to metal prices for the years 1988-1997.


The final feasibility study on the Skouries gold copper porphyry
was completed in September also by Kvaerner Metals. The study
estimates construction costs of US$240 million ( in mid-1998 terms )
before confirmation of European Union grants estimated at up to 40
per cent of capital costs.

The feasibility study incorporates a three stage mining plan with
open pit used in the initial years, sub-level caving in the middle
years and block caving in the later years. The current mining
schedule is based on processing 130 million tonnes ( containing 3.7
million ounces of gold ) of the total resource. The mine life
exceeds 20 years, based on the current mining plan. The
substantial remaining resources and potential extensions to the
orebody will either add to the mine's life or warrant a future

Production in the first five years is expected to average
approximately 200,000 ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper
per year, with a cash operating cost of less than US$25 per ounce,
net of copper credits at US$0.80 per pound.

Three separate metal pricing scenarios are used to present
financial returns for Skouries:


( after tax, 100 percent equity financing, sunk costs excluded )

Base Recent Historic
Prices Prices Prices ( 1 )

Gold $350 $300 $375
---- ---- ----
IRR 20.8 13.6 26.1
percent percent percent
NPV at 5 percent
( $million ) $202 $95 $295
Payback ( years ) 2.7 3.6 2.2
Cash operating cost/oz
First 5 years ( $16 ) $22 ( $65 )

Copper byproduct
price/lb $0.95 $0.80 $1.10

1. Relates to metal prices for the years 1988-1997.


Kvaerner Metals has confirmed the technical and economic
feasibility of both projects. To give added confidence, critical
areas for each project have been completed and/or audited by
world-class specialists.

Since the information cut-off dates for the studies, TVX and
Kvaerner have identified a number of opportunities to reduce
capital costs, to extend the reserve base and to enhance the
operating parameters of the two projects. These opportunities will
be researched and implemented, if appropriate.

For construction to start as planned in the second half of 1999,
relevant permits are required. At this early stage in the
process, permitting is on schedule. The Greek government is in
full support of the projects' development, particularly as they
represent the largest foreign investment in the country in the
past 50 years.

With the receipt of the final feasibility studies, the Greek
projects reserves will more than double TVX's reported 1997
reserve base of 6.2 million ounces.

In addition to the potential to add to the projects' reserves,
there is potential to find other Olympias-style massive sulfide
deposits and gold/copper porphyry deposits similar to Skouries on
the 314 square kilometre ( 120-square-mile ) property. Regional
exploration has identified a number of targets, including the
massive sulfide target, Piavitza, where the second phase of
diamond drilling is now underway.

N. M. Rothschild & Sons ( London and Toronto ) , financial advisors
for the projects, believe that based on the feasibility studies,
the construction phase of the projects can be funded by bank loans
supported by equity investment in the order of US$75-$100 million.
TVX is examining options for funding its share of the development,
which include joint venturing the projects with other mining

TVX has been informed by Rothschild that the October 14 decision
of the Ontario Court of Justice ( General Division ) , awarding the
Alpha Group a 12 percent carried interest and a 12 percent
participating interest in the properties, should not affect the
financeability of the projects. Rothschild will be issuing project
financing proposals and supporting documents to banks during the
fourth quarter.

Forward Looking Statements

Statements in this press release contain forward looking
information. These statements address future events and
conditions and so involve inherent risks and uncertainties.
Actual results could be significantly different from those
currently projected.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:25 - ID#269128)
Deutsche Bank looks under Bankers hood and doesn't like it....
Monday October 26 12:17 AM EDT

Deutsche Denies Bankers Trust Takeover Talks

By Paul Gallagher

FRANKFURT ( Reuters ) - Deutsche Bank AG chief Rolf Breuer denied his bank is in talks to take over U.S. Bankers Trust but said it is
pursuing discussions to build up its global business, a German magazine said Sunday.

Speculation that Deutsche Bank had locked on to a target in its long-term search for a U.S. investment bank was triggered Tuesday by a Financial
Times report which cited unnamed sources as saying Deutsche executives were talking to Bankers Trust.

``In this sector everyone talks to everyone else but there were no takeover talks,'' Breuer said in an interview with Der Spiegel, released in
advance of its publication Monday.

His remarks followed denials by a Deutsche Bank spokesman Thursday who called the Financial Times report -- which boosted Deutsche's share
price by more than five percent -- ``totally unfounded and pure speculation.''

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:29 - ID#341227)
Based on today's TVX Press Release... appears the company is now "in play."

Company must find a joint venture partner or sell itself to a senior in order to develop Greek mines.



(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:33 - ID#333126)
Tokyo tries package after package...

when are they gonna work ( if ever ) ?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:37 - ID#341227)
Final Note on TVX today...
Canada's investment house "NESBITT" rates TVX, "OUTPERFORM."

Detailed Report available on CANOE internet service.



(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:37 - ID#210253)
The "perfect" bull market of 2 weeks ago feels like its beginning to shift negative again. The dow has not been strong since the novelty wore off of the interest rate cut. Gold and a recovering XAU are holding ground. Worldwide economic good news is not as good as it was immediately after fed action. If Brazil rumor is true, what will the RR and AG do to counter. BEARX could be low risk below $6.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:37 - ID#347457)
@LGB (@ Realistic....)
LGB, Realistic's posts would not be offensive if he ( or she? ) did not continue to post the same rebuttal over and over. When that happens, I have a feeling of "big brother" trying to tell me what is the truth. I think, most of the "free spirits" on this site don't like that.

No doubt about it, this site is biased toward gold. You see posts patting posters on their shoulder for "good post" if the post was "justifying" why gold will go through the roof and "disagreement" posts when somebody questions it. However, Realistic posting does not bring "balance" to the site, it just say over and over "you see he was wrong  he was wrong  he was wrong  ) when it's already obvious to everybody "that he was wrong!". And all of this is done without presenting any different thoughts where what the market will do.

It's getting old just like repeated market crash predictions are getting old. Give us some credit that we can make our own conclusion!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:41 - ID#347457)
I have that bad feeling again!
Folks, watch the market for me. I am heading for the airport, flying to the West Coast, do some business and some sailing. Any time I am out on the boat without "being in touch" I loose a lot of money ( currently a lot of it in gold stox :- ( )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:43 - ID#34459)
XAU Gaining Momentum
XAU made a breakaway on the daily chart today at 69.00..Looks as tho could be setting up to rock & roll to upside.As in the past it usually leads the Precious Metals.. Gold & Silver shorts should be nervous shorts if they are still short and a short covering stampede may be in the works dead ahead............FWIW and .85 cts. can buy you a cup of coffee.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:44 - ID#339274)
FWIW If gold can not rise above 295 today,we see a sell.
Only Plat will temper the sell off,for now sitting on the sideline
with my OEX puts.Not a bad day

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:48 - ID#269409)
@ Miro
OK Miro...we'll agree to disagree on this one. And I hope you do NOT lose money during your trip. I'm not sure that XAU and S&P will travel in opposing directions over the next few months...perhaps not.

My metals hopes now are mainly in silver. I dumped all my Gold shares in Drooy and HGMCY once they became profitable. Decided that it's better to avoid that neck o' the woods.

A profitable day to all.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:52 - ID#333126)
remember another situation where there was a similar announcement?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 13:54 - ID#348286)
Record third qtr earnings, increased over 100%, and increased Gold production. ( Las Cristinas is not even developed yet. )
Very bullish release, and the financial press should/will pick up on it for tomorrow. Stock up 1.80 @ 22.00 cdn.

Placer says costs down, production rises

SYDNEY, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - Canadian miner Placer Dome Inc said on Tuesday low cost and higher production had helped it to continue earnings and cash flow growth in the first nine months of 1998.

Consolidated net earnings to September 30, 1998, increased to US$74 million, an increase of over 100 percent on the US$35 million in the same period last year.

Net earnings in the 1998 third quarter were US$33 million, compared with US$6 million in 1997.

Total operating earnings from gold mines rose 65 percent over the nine months to $267 million, based on a 14 percent increase in gold production and a 27 percent improvement in average consolidated cash cost of production.

``The achievement of our mine operators and the improving trend in our financial results demonstrate how effectively we are unlocking value within Placer Dome's asset portfolio,'' Placer president and chief executive officer John Wilson said in a statement released in Sydney.

He said all Placer's mines recorded lower cash production costs than a year ago.

Total cash costs for gold production over the nine months was $151 per ounce, compared with $211 an ounce a year ago.

``The improvement is mainly due to a full nine months of low-cost production from the Pipeline deposit at the Cortez Joint Venture and a continued strong performance by the Granny Smith Mine, as well as higher productivity at all operations and the strong U.S. dollar,'' Placer said.

Gold production for the third quarter was 824,000 ounces, bringing production for the year to date to 2,189,000 ounces compared with 1,858,00 ounces for the same period a year ago.

This was due mainly to a contribution of 458,017 ounces from the Pipeline in the 60 percent owned Cortez Joint Venture.

Placer said it expects total 1998 production to exceed 2.8 million ounces at a average cash cost below $160 an ounce.

An updated feasibility study for Placer's 70-percent owned Las Cristinas Mine in Venezuela suggests significantly higher production rates and lower operating costs than previous estimates, it said.

Total average production was now expected to be 530,000 ounces for the mine's first 10 years at an anticipated cash production cost of $155 an ounce.

``With strong outlooks for its best performing mines and the new contribution from Las Cristinas, the corporation expects its cost to remain low and its production profile stable well into the next decade,'' Placer said.

``Based on current plans, the corporation expects to maintain average annual gold production at 2.5 million ounces from 2000 through 2002 at cash production costs of about $180 an ounce,'' it said.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:02 - ID#240241)
Besides Stillwater, what other stocks are out there? I've heard some
of you mention a few before, but didn't write it down.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:11 - ID#339274)
FWIW 71.5 pivotal,we see

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:18 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 175.681 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 293.000 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 175.987 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 293.000 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 2.9997 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0000 US Dollars

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:19 - ID#432130)
A copy of a letter I sent to my uncle... reply to his assertion that the government uses public monies in the stock market in a way that is widely know and is public knowledge. He had missed the point that I was asserting, which is that the government gambles with public monies in an illegal manner in an effort to sustain the market...


Im sorry, but I do not agree that it is that comlicated ( it obviously is, but Im talking
about the "investments" that the government makes beyond the legally complicated scam
they admit to ) .

Ive been watching this market like a hawk and I am much more opened minded
than you might think. On friday I concluded ( long story ) , that the government
is intervening on the market MUCH more than Fed interest rate cuts, etc.
Telling me the Fed and the banks are the ones who handle this juggling act
only serves to convince me of the conclusion I came to over the weekend. Which
is that our government will do ANYTHING SHADY AND EVEN DOWNRIGHT ILLEGAL to
assure the security of our market. This includes improper allocation of
Social Security Funds and God knows what else.

I think the Dow's true value is around 6400 which is why I was being generous
when I said the market will bearishly go down to 7400 and hold there until the
Spring when a new round of world bad news hits including Y2k fears. For this
reason I had made a sizable bet by investing in BEARX, based on the grounds
that a steady Bear market would bring gradual growth to that fund. Which is
exactly how it worked from Sept until this past bull rally ( which I did
predict the day before it happened ) . By all rights, profit taking should have
knocked that rally back to 8000, and then steady Bear errosion should have
taken place.

But that didnt happen. And Im sure you could give me a list of "market"
reasons why the Dow has held and is climbing, but I will reject any opinion
other than the following: There is alot of money out there that needs to "a
home" in the form of steady 401k inflows, Internet related money, etc. If the
managers of these funds felt that a Bear market would eat it all up, they
would find alternatives like bonds, treasuries, etc. So why is there this
optimism and confidence in a market that is screaming around the entire globe
to everyone "GET OUT NOW!!!"? It is because there is now full confidence that
the Fed can handle this situation and keep the market from taking a dump. But
I will insist this is not about Fed interest rate cuts. It is about
government intervention with taxpayer money being done by means of a "shady
legality" for which they have no right risking these monies in a market that
has a terminal illness. And yes, I have every good reason to believe they are
investing Social Security monies in ways not covered by your complicated list
of legal ways they do this stuff.

So, knowing ( self assured ) that all of the above is true, I realized that
BEARX is going to lose a fortune because it bet the farm on a continued and
steady Bear market. Friday was the first time BEARX went DOWN instead of up,
when the market went down that day. I spent that day and through the weekend
cram studying this stuff and came to the conclusions I listed above. I bailed
out of BEARX yesterday with a profit of $69.00 and I expect to watch the fund
lose its shirt in the next couple of months.

However, all of this has not effected my conclusion which I have already
stated weeks ago, that regardless of the unfolding of this Fall's "correction"
( or whatever you want to call it ) , the market will hold until Spring when the
World Crap & Y2k Scare hits all at once, causing a panic run on the banks and
the market."

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:21 - ID#280214)
cc et al re: POG of $2000
If no significant inflation between $300 and $2000
then the POG can not long stay at that level.
What would be the world production of Gold
at US$2000 if that $2000 = two weeks of American miners' wages.
I agree that the price could reach that level BUT
eventually increased production would drive it back down.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:23 - ID#339274)
FYI Bankindex is crashing,down over 2% ,see what gold is going
to do?OEX following..

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:25 - ID#269409)
@ MoReGoLd
Thanks for the tip....just put an order in for a few thousand shares. Can't hust since I dumped the SA shares and want to hold SOME kind of Gold producer shares. Besides, Ive always had a fondness for Placer Dome anyway. ( and Homestake...who's become a bit too bloated and long in the tooth now for my liking )

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:29 - ID#33184)
Chinese missed repayments ...
Also, on the mind of the market is a major Chinese firm missed today payment on a bond to international creditors. Many financial institutions had lent to Chinese firms on what they believed was the implicit guarantee of the government on the loans.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:29 - ID#284255)
From Canada's Globe & Mail
Army fears civil chaos from millennium bug
Huge deployment would deal with fallout from computer failures
The Canadian Armed Forces have been ordered to spend the next 14 months preparing for what could be their biggest peacetime deployment -- tens of thousands of troops spread across the country and frigates standing by in major ports -- in case computer problems in 2000 bring civil chaos.

The army is studying everything from the number of flashlights and batteries it will need if power is out for weeks to whether military air-traffic-control field equipment should be set up at civilian airports.

Logistics officers are plotting where to position vehicles, fuel, tents, cots, ration packs and other supplies. Signals officers are trying to figure out how to keep high government officials in communication if commercial systems fail.

Rules for the use of force are being drafted should soldiers have to make arrests or back up police dealing with riots and looting.

As police, fire and other civilian emergency services make their own plans, military commanders have been told that meeting the threat of the Year 2000 bug is their highest priority and will be the focus of all training from January on. Equipment purchases that do not contribute to the effort are to be postponed.

No one knows whether a common programming flaw -- a seemingly small matter of dealing with dates beyond 1999 -- will cause cascading failure in the world's computer systems,knocking out in the dead of a Canadian winter machines that run everything from traffic lights to nuclear reactors.
It could turn out to be one of history's great anticlimaxes, but the armed forces are taking no chances.

The effort is called Operation Abacus, after an ancient Chinese bead-and-string calculator that needs no power and is not susceptible to glitches. A 24-page "warning order" was sent to military commanders, regional headquarters and reserve units across the country nearly two months ago.

"There is a potential for disruption of major infrastructure systems . . . that may require Canadian Forces support to civil authorities," the order begins. The commanders have been given until mid-November to come up with first drafts of plans that will be refined right up to Jan. 1, 2000.

The success of the operation depends on "public confidence in the government's ability to manage and provide leadership in dealing with the year 2000 problem," the order says.

Navy captains have been told their ships may have to be docked to serve as garrisons, power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchens.

On land, the official worst-case scenario would have 32,000 soldiers, including volunteer reservists, living and working in the field.

So far, the army says it has sought no cabinet order pressing weekend warriors into service. Rumours in reserve circles suggest the field force could reach more than 60,000, including many non-volunteers, if such an order were issued.

Such talk was not diminished by an article this month on the Year 2000 effort in the Maple Leaf, an official army magazine. Lieutenant-General Ray Crabbe, a just-retired deputy chief of defence staff, said soldiers need not worry about missing their 1999 Christmas holidays.

"As far as Christmas goes, I don't think you could deploy 60,000 troops away from their homes at Christmas, especially from a morale point of view," he was quoted as saying. "I'm not sure you can say the same thing for New Year's Eve."
Almost everyone knows about the problem by now.

Traditionally, most computers recorded years in two digits: "98" for 1998, "99" for 1999 and so on. When "00" arrives, some computers may think it is 1900 or some other base year.

Some may be uncertain of the year or even the day of the week. ( Dec. 31, 1999, is a Friday; Jan. 1, 1900, was a Monday. That does not compute. ) They may act strangely or shut down, paralyzing complex systems.

Or maybe not. The Year 2000 problem ( Y2K for short ) has been called both a death sentence for industrial civilization and a fraud perpetrated by computer types.

Whatever it is, billions of dollars and millions of hours of work will have been lavished on it before the end of next year. Greying, out-of-fashion mainframe programmers have found themselves commanding wages as high as $1,000 a day, at least temporarily, in the rush to fix countless lines of code.
If the troops are out in the cold, they will have plenty of company. Police forces have begun warning their staffs not to plan vacations around the turn of the year.

The RCMP's 16,000 officers have been told to book no time off from Dec. 27, 1999, to March 15, 2000, at least until the scope of the Y2K problem becomes clearer.

Toronto's 5,000 police officers have been given no-go dates of Dec. 27, 1999, to Jan. 9, 2000, and Vancouver's 1,150 officers have been given Dec. 29, 1999, to Jan. 14, 2000. Calgary police are considering the same dates as the RCMP, although no order has gone out.

Montreal's fire department says there will be a Y2K vacation ban but has announced no dates. The Toronto department has no special ban but says December and January have customarily been no-leave months because of extra fires associated with candles, fireplaces and space heaters, among other things.

!!!And two new interesting urls right at the top of the markets page.!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:36 - ID#271125)
(anyone: any recommended web pages for OEX options, I need to look at how far out I can buy them and
their premiums..Thnks

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:37 - ID#371229)
@LGB, a speculative answer to your 11:31 post today
An important key to the future of the gold ruble will be Russia's measures to increase its gold reserves. Mining alone will not do it, and obviously the core strengths of its economic base can not be seen as competitive to existing world powers. However Russia has 2 strengths going for it. 1 ) Military power, and 2 ) the backing of organized crime.
In the maelstrom of coming events yet to unfold, history has repeatedly shown that
Desperate times bring forth-desperate measures. In human terms that equates to war.
Empire expansionism has always been the way of the militarily strong to create a stronger resource and monetary base. Look for Russia to expand its Kosovo type subterfuge into other lesser country confrontations. Look for it to sell its weaponry and technologies and form "protectionist " alliances with other economically decimated countries.
But war is a costly undertaking! Yes. Russia is advised and a puppet to the concerns of organized crime ( #2 ) . As such they have some financial backing from the wealthiest
Entity on earth. They have also become an extremely business savvy entity. The Russia/Organized Crime alliance has accomplices in place throughout the world. They
have plans ( IMHO ) to undertake the greatest GOLD grab ever imagined.
Their unseen partner of opportunity is the coming Y2K induced world chaos/anarchy scenario. It has been my speculative contention that his has been a long planned for event, and is the child of the marriage of Russia & Organized Crime. Organized Crime is the financial arm, Russia is the muscle. Organized Crime wants the GOLD, Russia wants the power!
Watch for the removal of Yeltsin and the rise in power of more "old-world" communist. The ultimate battles will be fought under the auspices of martial law
Controlled world governments, and the battlefields will be everyone's back yards while no one accesses news sources to tell the tale of the gold grab that takes place under our noses while we struggle within our respective world communities merely to survive. How long will the gold grab/revolution take place? I don't really know. No more than I really know about any of this, but I guess it can be accomplished far quicker than any old style world war. The Y2K madness may last only long enough to establish the new
World order, and there will probably be a much longer period time consolidating that order under martial law constraints that may be a very long time ever being removed.
Some of the debates concerning the likelihood of Y2K doom and gloom scenarios are
Moot to my way of thinking. If indeed it is a planned for event, infrastructures worldwide will be taken down whether the "bug" is to blame or not.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:38 - ID#242325)
Supply siders like Larry Kudlow and Jude Wanniski keep harping on low commodity and low gold prices as signals that the Fed is too tight. Funny though that they never mention the still absurd valuations of many blue chips stocks.This certainly clashes with the idea that Fed policy is too tight.

Just a thought.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:41 - ID#339274)

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:46 - ID#33184)
Quite a sell-off of the dollar all of a sudden ...

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:46 - ID#212323)
Squirrel...14:21...I respectfully disagree.
What you are saying essentially, is that when the avalanche comes, as our turned head and up-raised palms fail to stop the onslaught, that somehow closing our eyelids will make a meaningful difference. It won't. Increases in annual production under the the most optimistic circumstances pale when compared to the amount of gold already available to engage in this battle. And all this gold in turn pales when compared to the snowpack of fiat currencies on mountaintops the world over.
Think about it.

John B
(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:48 - ID#77133)
What I've come to question lately is whether investor's underlying motivation to preserve capital will still include gold as a defense. Looking back to gold's better days, the common feeling was that of gold as a "rare and precious asset" that provided a dependable haven. Dependability has become suspect as has rarity and preciousness.

We recently emerged, at least as of today, from a true worldwide financial panic. This was the moment I has been planning for with gold hedges, but gold bullion couldn't surpass or hold $300 or so. A big disappointment to see only U.S. treasuries surge, the new haven of choice.

I agree that plenty of paper currency exists to drive the gold price to any level - what is missing now is both a fundamental reason and a lack of investor desire. What we do have, are professional traders etc. jerking the price up and down to suit their own purposes. Today's action will be yet another test of dependability - the XAU is up and everything else is heading south. Let's see what happens tomorrow and the next days.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:49 - ID#339274)
Something is spooking the market big time,trying to keep up
the market.Anniversary?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:51 - ID#284255)
For the Aussies

Local study

Please note the 'Lastest News Articles' url I've just posted on my site updates every five minutes.

I've contacted the web site owner and he's doing a page up for the latest Gold & PM's news.

Should be up and running in a few days.

Well worth a look.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:52 - ID#288466)
Oak @ Platinum stocks

There are a few South African companies traded on Nasdaq, or Nasdaq bulletin board ( BB: )

Impala Platinum BB:IMPAY
Anglo American Platinum BB: AGAPY
Lydenberg Platinum LYDPY

And also there are a couple of Canadian stocks ( sorry - I don't have the symbols handy on these ) ....and maybe more little guys I don't know about ( ;^ ) )

Northern Platinum
North American Palladium

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:54 - ID#33184)
Something else odd ... a big move into the traditional safe haven of
of swiss franc for no well-known reason.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:58 - ID#269409)
@ Ran...Russia on the serious side
Unfortunately, I agree completely with your excellent post. Enough hardship in Russia will surely produce events that will demonstrate that this is the most dangerous situation that faces the world today.

Biblical prophecy also dictates that Russia will ultimately invade the middle East as well as going to war with the "revived Roman empire" ( the EU ) .

I hear Boris Yeltsin was hospitalized again today, and they are calling for his resignation. Scary times may be ahead.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 14:59 - ID#212197)
@John B: You are drawing long term conclusions from short term
market behaviour.
I'm observing that even small investors, people who are working as employees or contractors, are thinking of gold purchases, just to be save. I think the market insecurity has been very well observed by the masses. People start to mistrust the stock market and gold is already an alternative to hedge for the small investor.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:00 - ID#288466)
Hmmmmmmmmmmm....banks selling off - maybe it's related to this post
Date: Wed Oct 21 1998 23:21
AE_Calgary ( Related to Kapex 21:57 - Email says "Sell everything this week" ) ID#7285:
Copyright  1998 AE_Calgary/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

For what it's worth, and I know second and third hand information is usually not worth much, an email to day says "sell all stock positions this week"


A co-worker pulled me aside this morning ( we share trading information ) , to show me an email he received from a long time trading club member and freind. This freind of his is based in Hong-Kong. The contents of the email said to sell all stock positions this week as there may be an announcement next week about 4 or 5 US financial institutions in serious trouble. I did not get from the email whether those institutions where banks or not. Appearently, this guy's wife is an investment banker and the two of them have contacts around the world. Additionally, he has shorted the Hong-Kong market to the tune of 2M $HKD.

My co-worker respects this fellows abilities and sold all his stock positions.

Additional Info:

My co-worker showed me an email from the Hong-Kong informant received the day before the FED lowered interest rates. He said that the FED was about to support the market and he called for the DOW to go to 8300.

Take this post for what it's worth

Monkee Person
(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:00 - ID#350219)


No one better ever say a word to me about Hong Kong again!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:02 - ID#269409)
@ 460% gains?
Ebay THIS! A few weeks ago a friend at work passed on a recommendation for a penny stock, WNCR. ( Winchester mining, but not the kind of mining we think of here ) .

As a gamble / lark I bought 50,000 shares at 2 cents. Dang stock is up 460% today! That's FOUR HUNDRED SIXTY percent! Unless my Yahoo quote ticker is mistaken. I'll have to call the place and see what's up.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:03 - ID#371229)
@gwyz & others, I wholly agree with your uncle's assesments up to a point.
The markets worldwide are being manipulated. But the larger question is to what end. To do so implies like man's caretaking of the environment that he must thereafter forever do so. To do otherwise is to merely put off the inevtible to a later date. My question: in the US is that later date merely until after the Nov. elections, after Clinton has dodged the impeachment bullet, or is it a waiting until Y2K wipes all accounting books clean? When we see market manipulations as a worldwide phenonema is there any other cogent explanation. Keep in mind the cost to manipulate rises logarithmically with time.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:04 - ID#280214)
Given that the annual production is irrelevant to the POG since the huge amount of above ground stocks overwhelms any production. And given that the production more or less equals demand, then DEMAND is irrelevent to the POG since there is so much in overhanging stockpiles that any demand can be absorbed without a significant increase in price.
Thus the premise that you all make boils down to the POG will be whatever the large holders of Gold want it to be - as in CBs, etc.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:04 - ID#240241)

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:05 - ID#34459)
Cyclist XAU Sell Signal
Cyclist, XAU may well pause here but on the 15 and 30 minute it has clearly risen in {5} waves. So an A B C pullback would be normal...the main story is the direction is UP.....Regarding the spooky markets....
4 words to think about..Boris is very sick!!!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:09 - ID#318274)
.Boris is very sick!!!!!

excactly my thoughts, more reason to get some more Goldstocks, baught Viceroy and Kinross today

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:11 - ID#318274)
I also remember last call from APH ( where is he? ) buy Gold at $ 292.00

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:12 - ID#339274)
FWIW The lid is being kept on gold,got out of my OEX put as well.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:13 - ID#288466)
Some additional info on the Russian situation (outside of Yelsin)
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
October 27, 1998

Russian Domestic Policy Affected by Doubts of Military Loyalty

As unrest continues to grow in the North Caucasus, Russia
announced last week that it will not increase its troop presence
in the region. Instead, Moscow will rely on local security
forces to maintain order in the troubled territory. This
announcement follows a report that Russian officials are pulling
out of Dagestan, a republic of the Russian Federation bordering
on Chechnya, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. After having lost in a war
with separatist forces in Chechnya, it appears that Moscow is on
the verge of surrendering neighboring Dagestan as well. It is
our conclusion that the decision to let Dagestan go is a result
of uncertainty in regards to the Russian Army. The uncertainty
is less a question of readiness than it is of whether, given
discontent over Moscow's failure to adequately fund or even feed
Russian troops, Russian Army soldiers will obey Moscow's orders.

Russian Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin announced on Friday
October 23 that Russia would not send more troops to the North
Caucasus to quell the developing unrest. Stepashin told the
Russian news agency ITAR-TASS, "We have sufficient forces in the
region." He insisted that order will be maintained through
cooperation with local security forces. To illustrate this
cooperation, Stepashin pointed to recent violence in Dagestan in
which two policemen were killed. "Our Dagestani colleagues
showed good professional skills: the whole gang was done away
with. I stress  it was done by local police and federal forces
were a support." However, Stepashin's reference to "Dagestani
colleagues" as something independent of the Russian Federation's
security apparatus, on top of an earlier report that Russia's
security forces are evacuating Dagestan, suggests that Moscow may
be ready to let the republic go.

Komsomolskaya Pravda reported on October 21 that "Russian power
structures are evacuating everything of value from the republic."
The paper noted that weapons and military hardware were being
removed from stockpiles in the Dagestan. The Federal Security
Service was also reportedly dismantling its intelligence and
security apparatus. In addition, hundreds of Russian families
were reportedly fleeing the area. This exodus, and the attempt
to conceal it, is a sign that Russia may have decided not to
fight for Dagestan as it did for Chechnya, an impression made
stronger by Komsomolskaya Pravda's reference to Moscow pursuing a
"non-Chechen" strategy for Dagestan.

That Moscow may have decided to let Dagestan collapse has
staggering ramifications. First and foremost is the issue of
sovereignty. Not only would the abandonment of Dagestan be a
tremendous blow to Russian pride, inevitably drawing a severe
backlash from nationalists, but it would be a potent signal to
other regions of the Russian Federation with aspirations of
independence. Additionally, with Dagestan possibly going the way
of Chechnya, Russia will lose more than half of its Caspian Sea
frontage. This will limit Russia's input in the ongoing
discussions of the division of the Caspian's resources.
Additionally, the loss of Dagestan would mean that Moscow would
lose control of Dagestan's oil fields and oil pipeline, and would
weigh against Russia's preferred proposed routes for the new
pipeline for Central Asian oil. Yet, even given these important
strategic considerations, it is our belief that this is more of a
tactical than a strategic decision.

In September General Alexander Lebed, governor of Siberia's
Krasnoyarsk region and former security chief to President Boris
Yeltsin, warned of brewing insurrection within the ranks of the
Russian Army. We believe that this is the main consideration for
pursuing a "non-Chechen" solution in the Caucasus region.
Russian Army troops are owed several months of back pay, which
they may never see. Numerous reports have surfaced recently
citing instances of soldiers selling military equipment in order
to money to live on. Last month Russian military sources
reported that the Army has already consumed 80 percent of its
food reserves, intended to be used in time of war. In the words
of General Lebed, "A hungry soldier is an angry soldier."

It is apparent that, at least for the moment, Moscow feels that
its control over the military is tenuous at best. Sending troops
to fight in what could be another Chechen debacle, a decidedly
unpopular campaign, would run the risk of furthering the growing
disgruntlement in the Russian Army. Even if Moscow is not
outright afraid of a military revolt, it is at the very least
concerned with the possibility of a crisis of command. Rather
than risk arousing renegade elements within the military, Moscow
has decided to avoid the issue for the time being.

The unrest in the Russian military is clearly a short-term
problem. Russia will solve its economic problems, albeit in a
Russian way. And anticipating its domestic recovery, Moscow has
already begun a concerted effort to re-establish its Cold War
influence in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Once Moscow's
GOSPLAN veterans finally abandon pretenses of liberalization in
hopes of pretenses of Western aid, and set about feeding Russian
troops the old fashioned way, Russia's return to the North
Caucasus will be swift. In the meantime, no Western company will
seriously invest in long-term relations with an "independent
Dagestan." Dagestan cannot guarantee stability in the region,
making any long-term investment risky to the point of being
ludicrous. Hence, Russian withdrawal from Dagestan, while
humiliating, is a tactical decision. Russia will recover the
region in time -- though what regime launches that recovery
remains uncertain.

The real significance of this decision is that Moscow apparently
has some serious doubts about the Army's loyalty. If the Army
has become such a wild-card that it can not be deployed, then
Moscow's first priority must be to fund it, by any means
necessary, lest through action or inaction the Army becomes an
agent of regime change. The Russian Army, despite its reported
impending starvation, will survive the winter. The question is,
will the Primakov government?


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or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:16 - ID#371229)
@LGB, my scenarios are further complicated by worldwide corrupted politicians in the
pockets of organized crime. Why havn't others seen the logical extension of buying local policeman and forces is to keep moving on up the ladder with your successes until you reach a point such as we today.
James Dale Davidson in his monthly investment newsletter said WJC sold out to the Russian/Orgasnized Crime axis while he was still student and taking an extended tour of Russia. In Ann Coulter's "High Crimes &
Misdemeanors there are accountings of incident after incident where his
lawlessness has been aided and abetted by gov. agencies ( FBI & IRS ) .
This is part of the placement of strategic people for the Y2K event. One ex white house security staffer when the heat was on was transferred to
FEMA, which is the agency that will be in charge under martial law. There are post on the internet detailing the construction of detention camps and plans worldwide for the mobilization of National Gaurd type forces. Clinton supports UN army forces. Foreign militaries are in place throughout the US, and Clinton has signed 2 acts expanding the martial law powers in an emergency, and on and on.....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:19 - ID#350179)
Silverbaron - throw this in the mix as well (no gold - sorry)
Azerbaijani-Georgian oil pipeline to begin operating in April

Many U.S. oil companies have invested in Caspian projects, and the United States wants the bulk of the crude to flow through a longer, as-yet-unbuilt pipeline across Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. Washington thinks that pipeline would bind those countries closer to the West, and make an alternate oil route across Russia and Iran less likely.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:20 - ID#339274)
FWIW Yesterday I sensed the turn,most of the money has been made.
Dito with the OEX.I'm a contrarian at heart.
No sense getting greedy : )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:25 - ID#34459)
Cyclist & the turn
My cycles say the dow May make it as long as Nov 2nd..After that CASH will be King.. we will see.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:32 - ID#33184)
October 15 interest rates were cut to avoid global banking meltdown
In an article in the financial periodical "Wall Street City," writer Paul Lam said: "contrary to what most would like to believe, the Federal Reserves abrupt decision to cut interest rates on Oct.15 was not so much due to concerns over a slowing economy or credit crunch. The action, which came 16 days after the first 0.25% rate cut, was outside the normal context of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which does not convene again until Nov. 17. It was a response to an immediate meltdown threat of the banking system...The grave danger on Oct. 15 was of a breakdown in the interbank payments system, which could have easily led to a global systemic collapse. While investors around the world rejoice the Feds action by outrageously bidding up stock prices, the more alarming message is that the emerging markets crisis has now fully reached the G7 financial systems."


(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:32 - ID#288466)

I think the US should forget about the pipeline across conflicts look to be heating up in that part of the world - I think there's NO chance it will be built in the near future.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:37 - ID#433172)
This and that
Nan- Read your post on Russia and y2k and a couple of thoughts? came to mind. HOw much American government is by informed consent? Is it possible powerful finnancial interests are hardly different from organized crime? Especially when they buy votes thru finnancial contributions. Anyway, maybe whats happening there isn't so different from whats going down here. If our welfare depends on the likes of Yeltsyn, we really are in trouble. I'm more afraid of government computers than I am bayonnets, y2k is a boon.

LOgger kills protester with a tree. Sherrif arrests protesters for being in the way. Fuedalizm not dead at all, not even sleeping.

Afeter all this crap now I have to take the government in as a partner on the small profits on stocks. 39%, the dealer takes a healthy drag on the pot. Oh well, I have plenty of losers to chose from, but it takes a lot of the charm away. Next year thier computers may melt down and make the world a safer place for those of my irk. Makes coins look better andbetter

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:40 - ID#212323)
Squirrel...of course, you are right!
There is simply no validity to herd mentality in people, and even if so, they will always be willing to hold government paper in place of long as the printed numbers on them are what the government wants them to be. It is as you say...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:41 - ID#431200)
Thanks very much for this URL.This is the best URL, I have ever found.Best Regards.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:48 - ID#371229)
George, exactly so. Organized Crime is BIG BUSINESS the biggest there is
read not too long ago that the the annual take in drug trafficking = 100 billion, add gun running, sex industry, gambling, and "legitimate" business
pracitices such as investment banking ( oh yeah think that is far fetched?
Add 30 years of sophistication, college educated 3rd generations to loan shark operations and what does that add up to? ) and how many times would you double 100 billion x how many years of operation and who then is the largest and most powerful non-taxed Entity in the world?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:55 - ID#240241)
just jumped over 74 ( for the moment ) grin

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:56 - ID#220325)
Direct line to Congress "BE HEARD"
Contact a senator, any US official, search a topic, send a letter or start petition at Found in Time Magazine August 3, 1998

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:58 - ID#334219)
Good observation!! But I don't think that it is right.

The total value of the gold held by you, myself and the biggies ( CB's ) is very small compared to the value of the currencies available to buy it.
In fact it is probably 20+ times smaller now than it was in 1979.

In the US alone, the monet supply increased 800% or so since worldwide investor demand brought gold to US$850. In the same period, above ground gold inventories increase only by 30%. If you add to the $US currency, the newly created currencies in all countries, you get an incomparable situation. There has never been as much money available to buy an ounce of gold now....

This next time ( when investors rush to gold ) , even if some CB's decide to sell ( which make no sense as most still understand that gold is money ) , there will simply be not enough gold for the currencies available to buiy it.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 15:58 - ID#334219)
Good observation!! But I don't think that it is right.

The total value of the gold held by you, myself and the biggies ( CB's ) is very small compared to the value of the currencies available to buy it.
In fact it is probably 20+ times smaller now than it was in 1979.

In the US alone, the monet supply increased 800% or so since worldwide investor demand brought gold to US$850. In the same period, above ground gold inventories increase only by 30%. If you add to the $US currency, the newly created currencies in all countries, you get an incomparable situation. There has never been as much money available to buy an ounce of gold now....

This next time ( when investors rush to gold ) , even if some CB's decide to sell ( which make no sense as most still understand that gold is money ) , there will simply be not enough gold for the currencies available to buiy it.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:02 - ID#34459)
OAK....You heard it here
XAU up 7.83% today Dec Gold went out only .10cts of the days high..
The train is going around the curve...its left the station.....
Looks like beginning of wave ( 3 ) up..

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:02 - ID#266105)

Nice final bounce in xau.

I guess a tree fell on the shorts.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:03 - ID#240241)
looks like the finish at 74.63. Tried for 75.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:04 - ID#377196)
Many thanks, sharefin
What a wonderful list of sites you have in your url: - enormously useful. Many thanks also to Goldteck for pointing it out.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:07 - ID#209354)
G R E A T List !!! G R E A T Job !!! Thanks for us !

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:08 - ID#411259)
..... Tale of Woe .....

As of today there are no more Platinum American Eagles to be had.


The US Mint has sold all it has, as have we, nearly two tons of platinum coins in the last couple-o- months. They took the price of the coins off my screen today. I cannot even take orders to ship at a later time, stocks are gone and there is no way to buy them now and therefore quote a price. As the top seller of platinum coins in the world, we are first at the feeding trough, and we have been assured by the Mint that we should have some in ten days or so, but they don't even have the raw platinum to make up the planchets.

The same is true of the Royal Canadian Mint and their Platinum Maple Leaf. The VP of my company got a call today from the RCM asking to borrow a few hundred PLFs to complete a delivery. We could not oblige, we have sold what we have.

Even though platinum has fallen like a stone in a vacuum in recent months, demand is through the roof. I predict that JM's next semi-annual report will point to an increase in platinum usage despite the Asian slowdown.

I cannot buy enough platinum here, although they may whack it down to $328. Can only trade bullion, but I am looking better than 30% net profits if platinum only rises to the average low of the last decade of $378.

I liked it way too early this year, but I do like it still.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:08 - ID#240241)
LOL, *grin* Train may be leaving the station, but its that damn
circular track thats killing me!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:10 - ID#372262)
XAU UP 8.26% TODAY!!!!!
Yeltsin on deathbed? Brazil devaluation? Chinese default? Korea leading Asia back down? Dollar ready to resume collapse? All of the above? SOMEBODY'S HIDING SOMETHING AND GOLD IS SMELLING IT OUT!!!!! YAAAAAAAAHOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:12 - ID#280214)
cc - money supply compared to Gold supply is as relevant as
A large part of M1 chasing food grains. In both cases prices will skyrocket. But for the average daily trading volume in both cases: Grains respond to supply & demand whereas the POG is fixed by some insiders.

Aragorn III
(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:15 - ID#212323)
Forgot my own rule with 15:40...
Should never use tongue-in-cheek statements to make a point because the tone is not equally transmitted. Please understand my meaning to be the opposite of what was written.

got confusion?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:17 - ID#423380)
@Sharefin---GREAT SITE!!! MANY THANKS!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:17 - ID#252391)
That was the fastest A,B,C correction I have ever seen - though I will admit I don't know if I'd see one - did i??

Brazilian Pres will speak - all will be well, IMF will give money??

I think the big question is the degree to which the debt going bad in China will be preceived as "sovereign."

Back to 296 , then what?? What happen to the sivler rally??

As always lots of questions - the market will provide the answer

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:18 - ID#29048)
Precious Metals Summary

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:18 - ID#269409)
@ RJ...Whaddya mean 30% later on Platinum?
My Platinum Eagles are up 30% right now man! But they're the 97 PROOF Platinum coins dontcha know! ( hehehe )

I think your call will be right this time around. I'll have to go take a look at SWC.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:24 - ID#334219)
"Grains respond to supply & demand whereas the POG is fixed by some insiders"

But there is a limit on the grain that will be bought as this is a perishable used for consumption ...not a store of value. While gold is money and a store of value. There is no limit on the amount of gold that investors will decide to buy.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:27 - ID#334219)
last 7 minutes
Some large trades in NEM, ABX and PDG during the last 10 minutes. They wanted the shares at whatever the price.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:30 - ID#263184)
Was there any news to account for
the sharp runup near the close on the XAU? Currencies also were strong at the end of the day. Seems like someone knows something that would be beneficial to gold and foreign currencies.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:39 - ID#200235)
Possible explanation
Clinton to speak on Kosovo at any minute, now.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:41 - ID#339274)
Powerful move,when no test transpires this week,we are on the move to
November 10,335 gold,and 450 Platinum is leading the way.
Mentioned early that all precious metal coins are scarce in the street.
This will eventually impact the bullion markets.
I think everybody was looking at 295, Dec contract, today,this has to be broken tomorrow morning in order to validate the last 5 minute XAU move.
I think their is more to Boris illness,something else is out
there that slammed the banking index.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:42 - ID#215235)
The POG, XAU, and most mining shares ended the day at or near their highs. The POG and the XAU surged in the last few minutes of trading. Perhaps the banking system is beginning to crack, Yelstin is sicker than thought, and the damn in Brazil is about to break. Looks like we are about to embark on a tradeable rally. High high, and for how long, are the key questions. Anybody? Anybody?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:43 - ID#293184)
Cobra, XAU trivia
I sold all my stocks 10/12/87, but on 10/19/87 I bot 1k of ASA at 70 or so, the high for the day. I immediately realized my mistake and sold
a short time later for $15,000 loss ( all this in 2 hours ) .

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:45 - ID#280214)
cc - therefore from your argument
The limited amount of a perishable item being chased by a very large, in comparison, supply of money will then have a very volatile price. Just because it may have a small supply does not preclude people wanting a lot of it - especially if production falls since the consumption is, in the large scale, inelastic {if you consider the total food supply compared to people needing to eat - though adjustments can be made, i.e., few cattle and more grain}
Gold, with a huge, unperishable supply would dampen such fluctuations. Can it be said that there is no potential buyer big enough, collectively or individually, to really boost the POG since such a large stockpile and the price-fixers have eliminated supply and demand from the equation - or at least the supply side is too picayune and insignificant to influence the POG?

If there is a large potential demand, compared to buyable stocks {not locked up in CBs} then yes the POG should rise if a large flight of capital sought it out. All this is academic to the peasant on a diet of rice or the average worker buying groceries. Gold is for goldbugs and influential to play with. Joe and Jane sixpack could care less since they need generators, grub, guns, booze and other supplies which Gold can not buy at most any store.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:50 - ID#194311)
Good news for Platinum...going forward 5-10 years.
Tuesday October 27, 9:12 am Eastern Time

Ballard announcement/Johnson Matthey deal

( Full text of press release from Canadian Corporate News )

OCTOBER 27, 1998

Ballard Power Systems and Johnson Matthey Sign Collaboration and Supply Agreement

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--Ballard Power Systems announced today that it has signed a multi year agreement
with Johnson Matthey for the joint development and supply of catalysts and catalyst containing products for Ballard Fuel Cells.
The agreement follows a highly successful collaboration begun in 1992 for the development of the platinum catalysts and
catalysed electrodes used in Ballard Fuel Cells.

``Ballard and Johnson Matthey have established a strong collaboration over the past six years,'' commented Firoz Rasul, Ballard's
President and Chief Executive Officer. ``This new agreement provides the framework to further develop our relationship and meet
the challenges of the next decade. We expect Johnson Matthey to be Ballard's major supplier of catalysts and catalysed products.''

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:54 - ID#290456)
Dutchman - Yvan Auger says look for XAU 87 to 93

Normally I don't give Elliott Wave price predictions a really high degree of confidence, but he sure did pick the time and price of the XAU turnaround in the current commentary.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 16:59 - ID#350179)
I went away for a bit.
Your Master site is ... better than my bookmarks.
Outstanding! Thanks.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:03 - ID#212197)
Let me comment on Russia's "Third Rome" tradition.
You said:
"Biblical prophecy also dictates that Russia will ultimately invade the middle East as well as going to war with the "revived Roman empire" ( the
EU ) ."
There was an old polarity between the catholic "First Roman Empire" with Rome as the capital and the "Second Rome" which was Byzanz/Konstantinopel. Both christian empires excommunicated each other and were basically at war ( pretty much like the cold war period between the USA led western empire and the Moskau led communist empire ) .

Now there is no doubt that the EU-block is a revival of the "First Roman Empire" or the "Holy Roman Empire of Germanic Nation". And Moskau always acted in the tradition of the "Third Rome", a title which it inherited after Konstantinopel was conquered by the Turks. When the "Third Rome" is able to restore her strength a new polarity and even war between Western Europe and the Moskovite Empire is thinkable.

Priest casts are thinking and planning in centuries. That's where these "biblical prophecies" have their real background. I take it therefore serious what you wrote, even though I'm not a believer in the bible.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:04 - ID#255378)
They do ring a bell!
Huge drop in Comex eligible stocks today to extremely low levels. Gold is going up.

695,060 0 0 0 48,458 743,518
132,429 794 0 794 -48,458 84,765
827,489 794 0 794 0 828,283

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:25 - ID#269409)
More volatility ahead
Tuesday October 27, 5:08 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Wall St ends weaker as Brazil unnerves financials

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after the latest data on
consumer sentiment and rumors of a possible devaluation in Brazil reminded
investors all is far from well at home or abroad.

The past week's rebound in stocks was also seen overdone.

``The market sold off because of rumors about Brazil devaluing and they probably will, but not until next week after
they get their IMF package,'' said Harry Laubscher, a market analyst at Tucker Anthony.

The Dow closed unofficially off 66.17 points at 8366.04

``The recent run up has probably gotten a little extended and we should have a couple of days of weakness before we
start up again,'' Laubscher said. ``Any and all rallies you want to be selling into.''

On the New York Stock Exchange, declining issues led advances by a slim margin with 762 million shares changing

The Nasdaq fell 7.34 points to 1717.64, dragged down by a weaker Dow and a fizzling rally in Internet stocks with
America Online Inc. ( NYSE:AOL - news ) shedding its gains late session before reporting earnings after the close.

The Dow rallied more than 100 points in early trade, boosted by gains across European markets after Italy slashed
interest rates on Monday.

But by midsession, rumors that Brazil might allow its real to lose value against the American dollar started unnerving
the financials, sending stocks across Latin America lower with the Dow. Brazil's central bank later denied the talk.

``It's a reminder the global economy is not fixed,'' said Barry Hyman, senior market analyst at Ehrenkrantz King
Nussbaum. ``Where's this IMF package for Brazil that we are expecting?''

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it expects to unveil details of an aid package to Brazil on Wednesday.

Sentiment was also dented by news that the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 117.3 in October
from a revised 126.4 in September. October's reading was the lowest since a 114.2 reading in December 1996.

``Any time there are job losses, that really sends a chill through consumers and I think that's exactly what we are seeing
right now,'' Conference Board economist Lynn Franco said. ``It's coming at a pretty bad time because the holiday
( shopping ) season is right around the corner.''

Consumer spending has fueled some two-thirds of the heady growth in the U.S. economy.

Analysts said it would be difficult for the Dow to move above 8,500 points, a key level in the charts, unless there is
some significant bullish news such as another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed's rate-setting committee next meets on Nov. 17.

Even the feisty small caps were not immune to Tuesday's downdraft, with the Russell 2000 closing off 0.57 point at
371.50, snapping a nine session winning streak as the battered sector rebounded.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:33 - ID#119358)
@"let's do lunch tomorrow at that swanky Trattoria de Vesuvius, eh?....
Great view!"


Wonder what was shakin' 'round Pompei around 79 AD? yup, we've been here before.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:38 - ID#268260)
Let us hope that Mr. Auger is right about the XAU climbing to the 90 level. Then let us hope he is wrong about the XAU ultimately dipping below 35. The guy is right on a lot, though, and one cannot discount his analyses of Elliot Waves. Now where are my chicken bones?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:41 - ID#273432)
SWC looks ready to move up or down in a big way
I'll bet it's up.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:43 - ID#286230)
sharefin: I just started a batch Beermakers Bitter Ale XXX. Is it as popular there as the label suggests?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:45 - ID#273432)
And so does PAASF

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:54 - ID#219363)
Seems quiet out there, must be time for DOW 10000.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 17:59 - ID#273432)

FWIW the only situations I can think of that could possibly foster an XAU of 35 are a global finacial meltdown, in which all stocks get kiled, or a dump of the IMF gold into the market. Neither of these scenarios are very predictable, and IMHO also very unlikely. But ya never know, eh?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:02 - ID#30345)
No but it might be for the nikkei.

hong kong sentiment

nikkei to 10000

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:04 - ID#269409)
Hurricanes and John Glenn
Looks like the Glenn launch will not be affected by the Hurricane. However, this is reported to be the most intense, biggest, most dangerous hurricane in a decade. Here's the current water vaper content image which shows the size and scope of this monster. ( Taken from a Loral Goes satellite o' course! )

On an unrelated note....isn't it ironic that 37 years ago, John Glenn was almost scrubbed from going into space because he was deemed TOO OLD !!!!

Mozel should love it...NASA, get a clue!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:09 - ID#219363)
Agree with you that Peutz's comments are open to public debate, reason being that his comments are widely read. I'm there for people posting their opinions, crash thoughts, whatever, without tar and feathers being applied, but when you're published widely, well, free press, I'm there. Fire at will.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:24 - ID#219363)
DOW 10000
As the XAU crashed down today and we see reports posted here of COMEX gold being way up, I start to sense that people are dumping the metals and moving back into the equities, the biggest rally ever is upon us. Even foreign investors are getting in on the act, the dollar soaring today as overseas folks get ready to jump on the bull's back for a ride to the heavens. Political landscape is crystal clear, foreign economies doing well, LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:25 - ID#381342)
XAU chart EXPLODED last 15 minutes! What's happening?? My late uncle told me fifteen years ago; "own some gold --I do for insurance--but hope it never makes big money because if it does, there will be so many problems in society that the profits wont seem very important."

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:27 - ID#348129)
Thanks for the Comex update.......

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:27 - ID#268260)
Point well taken. My sentiments exactly. Our consensus must fortell one or both happening tomorrow. Gotta go. Black cat just crossed my path.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:28 - ID#30345)
Are you a coin collector. I am. here's som info on EBAY.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:29 - ID#45173)
Hey. Where's Oris?
I've been drinking Swedish waaadka. Am I gonna be ok? I feel kinda strange. I'm worried. How do I know my gold isn't Nazi gold?


(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:31 - ID#348129)
XAU reason: check out stocks like Placer Dome, earnings up over 100% - Yes, a Gold producer with actual earnings. These blue chip Golds are still way undervalued. They would be 10 X up if they were trading like the internet stocks..........

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:35 - ID#258427)
@Envy...What in the "Sam Hill"
are you talking are "inside/out" or "upside/down" or bassackwards...or sumting....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:37 - ID#269409)
@ longj...Numismatics
Yep...a collector of 30 years or so...and had a Web based mail order coin biz for a couple years until I realized it was too much time and trouble for the profits realized. ( Ahh but the wonderful INVENTORY I still hold! )

Mostly conventional stuff in my collection. Lot's of U.S. silver..Morgans, Walkers, Mercs....a lot of high grade certified also, M/S 67/68 stuff in Mercs., 64/65 in Walkers and Morgans...

Then of course, quite a few Saint Gaudens $20.00 Gold pieces...the mother of all Coins in my view. ( And they've skyrocketed in value the past year even as Gold bullion has fallen... )

Have some modern proofs too, Platinum and golden eagle sets from 1997.

Been a seller on Ebay quite a bit....and ocassionally a buyer.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:38 - ID#219363)
Oh yeah, nevermind all that, except for the "let's get ready to rumble" part *innocent smile*. O: )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:39 - ID#173196)
Nazzi gold ain't too bad. Try it with a little ice and a twist.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:42 - ID#255378)
Comex stocks
MoReGoLd - I think today's number is extremely significant. Each time we have had a sell-off in gold it was preceeded by an increase in eligible stocks. When fully one-third of the eligible stocks cover shorts in one day it portends something big. Two days like this and you can not tale delivery from Comex because there isn't any pledged for delivery!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:43 - ID#30345)
Me. I do MS-63 Lincolns, got a whole set of them too. Sheild nickels and

$10 indians are what I like now. Never sell the stuff though. I've been collecting 30 years too; Since, I was 8, never sold a thing.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:44 - ID#269128)
Sun is rising in the East....
gold and silver are UP early tomorrow!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:47 - ID#424394)
This afternoon's posts apparently state that
Gold does not respond to supply or demand. It also resists major economic meltdowns, political turmoil, etc. Short of armageddon, there seems to be nothing that can break the fixed price of Gold. Sure it goes up a bit, down a bit - since they have to let it fluctuate a little to keep Goldbugs' blood flowing. But a big move up or down? Not bloody likely!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:47 - ID#348129)
@HeHeHeHe --- Didn't Greenie and Rubinstein assure us no problems in South America ???
Gains in Toronto stocks shaved by Brazil rumors

TORONTO ( Reuters ) - Toronto's main equities index finished more than 1 percent higher Tuesday but came off its earlier peak as jittery investors reacted to a rumor that Brazil would be the next country to devalue its currency.
 The Toronto Stock Exchange 300's Composite Index took the high road, rising 67.81 points or 1.14 percent to close at 5996.78. At one point it had climbed more than 100 points, boosted by strength in overseas markets.
 New York's market took the low road: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66.17 points, or 0.78 percent, to 8366.04 points, giving back its earlier strength.
 Speculation that Brazil would allow its currency, the real, drop in value swept through North American markets but was dismissed by Brazil's central bank. This summer Russia devalued its rouble.
 Irwin Michael, portfolio manager at ABC Funds, noted that investors today were easily spooked. "People get nervous at the drop of a hat."
 Jim Doak, head of Enterprise Capital Management, said the market optimists and pessimists in Toronto were fighting for the upper hand.
 "I think the market is a hung jury," Doak said. Half of the investors believe markets, already battered by a correction earlier this year, will return to weakness while the other half tend to dismiss any bad news and anticipate a rally.
 Overall nine of the TSE 300's 14 subindexes rose, led by a 5.27 percent hike in the gold and precious minerals index helped by firmer bullion prices. Industrial products, utilities and conglomerates also posted gains.
 Losing sectors included pipelines, oils and forestry products.
 Amid active stocks, telecommunications equipment and data communications firm Northern Telecom Ltd. soared C$6.35 or 12 percent to C$59.25. Its third-quarter earnings bettered analysts' estimates after special charges and gains were swept aside.
 Nortel Tuesday said it had earnings of $0.42 per share on ongoing operations versus year-ago $0.29.
 Gold miner Placer Dome Inc. rose after investors reacted positively to its unexpectedly strong third-quarter results. Shares, also helped by firmer bullion prices, rose C$2.25 to C$22.50.
 ( $1-$1.54 Canadian )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:55 - ID#290456)
Please Take Note

Gold in terms of the Western European countries
has stopped going down, and is now at the end of a
triangular formation.

If the down-trend is to continue, somthing's gotta
give - either POG goes down in terms of USD
( doesn't look likely, at least for the short-term )
or the USD must fall.

IMHO an uptrend in gold in terms of the european
currencies ( as well as USD ) is neccessary before
we can call this a new bull market.

Check out gold in DM, SF, ECU etc.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:57 - ID#295111)
The National Post - News Story says Gold may reach $2,000 !!!!

The Financial Post Section of the "NEW" National Post in Canada had a front page commentary on Gold. Wish I had a copy in front of me to quote more from it.

The article mentioned an Analyst who predicted that Gold would reach $200 when the US went off the gold standard at $35.
THIS ANALYST NOW SAYS GOLD WILL GO TO $2,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Being that today was the first edition, I think it's significant that the Post would print such a story on it's front page of it's business section.

PATIENCE MY FRIENDS. POG at $2,000 and even beyond this number is probable.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 18:58 - ID#343171)
goldsheet link
passing this along, very good chart showing intra-day, week and monthly
charts for several gold stocks, xau, s&p500:

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:00 - ID#194311)
Gold is THE denominator
Historically the purchasing power of gold fluctuates by no more than +/- %25 of very long time scales. To say it goes up and down is a fallacy without comparing it with other adequate valuables.
The insidious mindset of pricing gold in dollars,deutschemarks,yen or drachmar is exactly what the detractors of gold want. By doing this they can make gold appear more or less is an illusion. Gold is a weight of a pure elemental more, no less.

To be deluded into thinking gold is going up/down in value is easy, what is really happening is that the fiat currencies are becoming more or less born out by the currency markets. Sure it may seem that you could buy more or less food/cars/woman with your gold but the same could be said if a Yank was now to go to Indonesia and rape cheap goods off them ( ohh they are doing that ) , with their manipulated inflated ego-dollar.

Gold is the one true globally agreed medium of exchange and as such will weed out all other pretenders....all fiat currencies will be made to measure up. When the dollar deflates seriuosly it will be against is the denominator and will be the nemesis of the now fraudulent USdollar that was once it's guardian.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:01 - ID#218249)
Silverbaron; Did you get Precther's Oct. 16 interim update?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:05 - ID#30345)
Hey anybody, did one of your kids rob the piggy bank for some candy? Just a few days ago, I went down to the seven-eleven for some bacon , OJ, etc. and noticed a couple of halves in the cashiers drawer as I was paying. Well, I asked her for change for the five I got back, and curiously mentioned that I'd like some half dollars or one dollar change. Well, she handed me: two peace dollars, a franklin, two 64 kennedys, two canadian quarters, and the balance in regular quarters. This got me thinking,..She seemed to know that this wasn't ordinary change but did not realize it was all silver. My point being that, it has been so long since Americans have seen the real stuff most of them can't recognize it when they see it. Granted, that the above case is extreme, but it represents a symptom as to why gold and silver are not linked to the dollar other than by the commodity traders market valuations.

The continual debasement of this nations currency has been completed for so long that most people have never even seen real money ( with specie ) in commerce. THEY have totally disassociated the idea that gold and silver are intrinsically money from the average person's mind. We might want to start a gold as money boom around here, but I'm telling you that the average person thinks of gold and silver as jewelry materials.

Hot flash..can't be.. just looked at my new CoinWorld..headline reads..."Is it a $20 or a $50? Some clerks can't tell?" C@#$%, it is worse than I thought. Since they changed to this new big headed stuff... ( better print some higher quality stuff so people don't just Xerox it ) ....Well any way Wal-Mart and seven-eleven better train their clerks better ( I wish to think of gold and silver as real money ) but maybe just to count would be a start. This is starting to remind me of Gollum's monkey options/hedge fund post on Friday. I guess I'd just like to say, that before any of those of you who are gloom and doomer's start thinking you're going to get anything special for those gold and silver escudos, and reales, you had better start educating ( or programming the public ) to think of gold and silver in their traditional roles. Otherwise what we've got here is an elite commodity for a really good price on our hands. Got Au, Ag, Pt, Ru, Rh....Get more. That's right sunshine....8,615,000 served and counting..

Gold can be demand driven, but by then it will be too late to make money on the bulk upswing.

The visible debasement of this nations currency has been stagnant for so long that the majority of people do not remember
seeing gold and silver bearing money in commerce. That being said, the financial sector is the only teacher left for these people
( to re-establish the mental linkage between these elite, under-priced commodities and money ) . The political-financial
complex cannot complete this education until they are poised to exploit the revaluation of these commodities to the masses.
Either they will strip the average person's ability to purchase these commodities before revaluaton, and revalue them ( deflation
) . Or they will unload the vast quanties of fiat to purchase the commodities ( inflation ) . Personally, I feel they are doing both,
and are now in the midst of purchasing gold with a steady ( at price ) acquisition to be followed by a sudden inflationary burst.
Let's just hope they don't blowit on the defationary side or it will be painful for us all.

POG 2730 in 3 years stable for 3 months. IMNSHO. tantalus time frame?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:08 - ID#300202)
T Rex
Got a url fer Conrad's National Post. Thought I might get it at Canoe
but cudn't find it. TIA.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:12 - ID#218249)
I really liked the front page of the Markets section of the WSJ today.
They proclaimed that the bear market in the NASDAQ was OVER, and a bull market had begun. Sounds more like the type of comments that we would hear at the top!
The S&P, the NASDAQ and some others have completed 5 waves down, and are ( or were ) in a countertrend rally that seamingly has generated a proclaimation of a new bull market. Gee, if I remember correctly, this paper was telling me that stocks were a great place to be in mid July.
Could they possibly be wrong at both points?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:17 - ID#45173)
Yah. NASDAQ bear is over.

I'm in the software biz. Fear and loathing. The rubber band is stretched out. Watch the DSOs.

Lull them into the calm... Then rip their faces off.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:24 - ID#290456)

Nope....Did you? PLEASE tell me we are about to start wave 3 down in the US markets.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:24 - ID#295111)
@sam Re: Oct/26/98 22:25, 22 Million Shares of ABX Shorted on the TSE

Thanks for your post sam_a!!
I try to read as much as I can in Kitco but I don't get to all the posts like I would.

Ok, Trizec Hahn has a Convertible Bond into ABX shares. I think that's very true because when Munk pulled out of Barrick, he did it via Trizec Hahn.

My analysis thus far on the 22 Million shares of ABX shorted...

1. I DOUBT very much that ABX has a liability to give 'ABX shares' to holder's of that Trizec Hahn bond. Otherwise, there would be a mention of it in Barricks Financial Statements.

2. So, I believe the liability rests with Trizec Hahn ( TH ) . This can be confirmed by reading TH's financial statements under the Liability Section on the Balance Sheet which I don't have. The Liability Section will have notes that detail the characteristics of all it's Bonds Payable.

3. TH may still be holding ABX shares which it will use as the Bonds are converted. This would also show up in the Balance Sheet of TH.

4. If it does not own any ABX shares, then TH has to purchase them on the open market.
This means that TH is up sh!ts creek without a paddle and Munk is stupider than I ever thought!!!
I wish he wasn't involved with ABX anymore. They should get rid of him.

THE REAL QUESTION I HAVE IS THAT IF TRIZEC HAHN HAS OWNERSHIP OF THE SHARES, ARE THESE SHARES COUNTED AS A SHORT POSITION IN THE FINANCIAL POST. I doubt it would cause TH would not be required to buy shares on the open market to fulfill a liability.

After all, my definition of a short is that an entity must buy up shares on the open market to fulfill a liability it caused when it borrowed the shares to sell in the first place.

Can any one else shed light on this issue? Especially interested in the bond holder's or shareholders of TH.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:24 - ID#190411)
LGB and John Glenn,
I don't know if you are old enogh to remember the hubbub with John Glenn, and the Camelot euphoria.
John Glenn has always been a political creature. He was chosen by the powers at the time as the embodiment of the Kennedy Kultur.
He was a suckup then, and now. He gets a "last ride" on his way to the grave, for stonewalling the campaign contribution hearings in the Senate.
John Glenn will forever have a soft spot in my brain for his efforts on behalf of the guys that cost the taxcows of the US.
One has to remember that a monkey did it first for the US.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:28 - ID#295111)
@Caper - The National Post
The link is
I went there just before signing onto KITCO but I could find the article.

The Gold story is on the front page of the business section. The Business section is called "The Financial Post".

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:28 - ID#290456)
Tantalus Rex
Did ya look here?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:28 - ID#173196)
Wave Three
down is due verrrry shortly.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:33 - ID#72316)
What do you want to know from the National Post article on gold?

I have it here in front of me,, but only use index finger to type..


(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:35 - ID#333126)
required reading today

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:36 - ID#218249)
Silverbaron; Nope, I didn't either but I'm wondering, just wondering
whether all the action in E-Wave terms is a 1 and 2, with the rally into late Sept. as a ( i ) and ( ii ) with a 5 wave 3rd of a 3rd still there.
If fundamentals break down in here, i.e. banks in trouble, ect. ect. then the realization of just how dangerous it is to be in the stock market would cause a mass exodus. This then would fit the 3rd of a 3rd that we have been wondering about for some time now. That headline today just may go down in history as a lesson for future investors to ignore at their peak in the market.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:37 - ID#194311)
John Glenn...a symbol of aging America and past glory days
architect of the disastrous Glenn bill which helped the US shoot itself squarely in the butt by screwing the US farmers when imposing do-gooder sanctions on Pakistan and India.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:40 - ID#411198)
Silverbaron : 17:38 SWC =7&i1=0&i2=0&i3=0&s=linear&symbol=SWC
Based on "OBV" someones buying. The weekly shows it well.
Same with DROOY. This dose help in times of indecision.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:42 - ID#72316)
This is the paragraph that you probably wanted...Mr. Spicer----

"He believes a feasible price for gold is $2000 an ounce, taking into account the decline in the US currency's purchasing power since the U.S federal reserve board system was created in 1914."


(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:44 - ID#194311)
Boomers' Bubbles' Burst
1950's Boomers Born
1960's Bummers
1970's Breeders
1980's Beamers
1990's Buymores
2000's Busters?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:45 - ID#433422)
Good evening gentlemen, Could I please have a moment of your time to answer an

important question? If a new 10grain coin we're to be offered, would you personally think that a coin minted by an unheard of mint, of medium quality and modest detail, but of guaranteed weight and purity and costing in the nieghborhood of $11.00-$12.00 would be more or less popular amongst those who are Y2K aware than a 10 grain coin produced by a highly reputable govornment mint of premium quality that cost $20.00-$23.00? ( Bullion value of $6.25 @ $300/oz )
Your respose would be greatly appreciated.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:48 - ID#30345)
tantalus here is the URL for your article.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:51 - ID#295111)
@longj Re: 19:05
Nice treatise.

I especially like the reference that "paper" can be so easily forged. Kids are doing it with colour copiers and easily getting away with it.

Forging Gold is an insurmountable task!!
Alchemists have spent their whole lives trying to turn Lead into Gold.

I say Gold reaches $3,000 by the year 2005. When it hits $3,000, I think the world will seriously consider a gold standard. Russia is in the infancy stage.

If the world lead by the US/Europe do what they are supposed to do by going to a Gold standard, then I say Gold hits $30,000.


That's cause Governments have created so much money via printing and credit when they gold supply has remained relatively stable. And Gold value has not risen as the money supply has.

Say the whole world has 900 Million Dollars and 3 Million ounces of gold.
Then 1 ounce of Gold is worth $300.

Then say the Gov't's create money. Say now there is 9000 Million Dollars
But the gold supply has stayed the same at 3 Million ounces. Then logically, Gold should be worth $3,000.
So if Gold in this time frame is valued at $300, Gold is undervalued.

This is one of the things about gold I'm seeing in today's world.

Lurker 777
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:51 - ID#317247)
RJ you are the METALMAN .
Sorry about taking so long to post back to you but I have been slammed lately. I see what you mean about buying COMEX 100 oz. bars. It just isn't worth it! Am I ever going to see $285 gold again? You know the old story I promise to sell everything and buy Gold coins under $300 ea. I got your number programmed for speed dial but need a $8 drop to play.
You are the best REAL BULLION trader on the net. I don't think a lot of people understand what you do for a living. You and your company sell REAL GOLD, SILVER and PMS ( not Comex paper ) and as a extra bonus have an excellent leveraged trading program for the not so weak at heart. Your calls on the market are superior to most and need no justification. Furemore, as you know, I have traded with your firm in the past and have never lost any money with you. You have been up front and honest in all of our trades and look forward to making money with you in the future!

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:56 - ID#295111)
@longj, @Silvebaron
Thanks for the links!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:56 - ID#190411)
Cage Rattler,
I saw some of your posts of earlier. Have you formulated any thoughts tieing these posts to the later news?
It seemed as though you were on to something.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:57 - ID#219363)
As a potential consumer, I wouldn't buy a 10 grain coin unless it had a very liquid market, that is, I could buy and sell when I wanted to. In my opinion, that's the trick. Any mint could pump out a gold coin ( and many do ) , but I don't buy them, I buy the government mint coins. Don't ask me why, it just feels warm and fuzzy for some reason. If it were an off market coin, I would want to pay a VERY low cost above the value of the gold content and would be wary of coins that were "watered down" too much, again, just the straight truth. If a "trustworthy" name were attached to it, I would be more inclined to buy, say, if it's authenticity and content was backed by one of the big trust brokers.

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Oct 27 1998 19:59 - ID#295111)
Thx to you too ARBY.

I got sign off now....CIAO for now.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:00 - ID#30345)
@tantalus rex, raven fire
tantalus: agreed. Sorry if i was long winded.

ravenfire: If the read is required, then could you bring back the essentials for us? I hate registering everywhere....junk mail and spam you know...

BTW how long do your updates take most of mine are sub second at kitcomm?

that's great BART..
VIVA kitco.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:02 - ID#190411)
If you choose, give me a line.

I am trying to line up a purchase of what you are after.

If I cannot get this, it will be a story anyway.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:07 - ID#377196)
@Grant My first reaction to your proposal about a 10 grain coin
of guaranteed value from an unknown mint and with a cheaper price than the usual is to wonder how you are going to assure people of the guarantee if it's an unknown mint. I think if John Q. Public is to be induced into buying such a small coin, it's going to be a matter of his being quite sure it's really gold and being so assured just by looking at it and knowing that whatever ths issuing mint is has been around and is likely to remain so and is known for quality. Part of the deal is knowing you can sell them to pretty much anyone if you need to. I got burned once on United Nations Year of the Child commemoratives that looked pretty, cost a big premium ( through Am Ex ) and that I had to sell more or less for melt some years ago, so I personally would be wary even of bullion coins by now. Perhaps some of the others here who actually make coins might have a more educated answer foryou.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:07 - ID#45173)
Strange money
For most of my life, since I used to collect coins, I've always checked my change. A habit. All my life I have never seen this bill I say three weeks ago, this funny-looking $10 bill in my change. The ink was really dark. The images have odd proportions. The seal too small.

I figured it's counterfeit.

Then I look at the date. The most ratty old other bill I have is dated 1993. I look at the funny $10 bill and although it's in better shape than the 1993 bill, it's dated 1950.

So I ask, what the hell is this 49 year old $10 bill doing in my change?

Put it away.

Two weeks later I'm on the other side of the USA. Putting my change away in the hotel room. Spot a funny $20. Dated 1953.

What the?


(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:08 - ID#34883)
Simple Stuff...needs Gold to work though.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:10 - ID#300202)
National Post On Gold Travelling With John Glenn
Nice to hear Krazy Kitcos- Gold gonna go ballistic- but when u read it in the NATIONAL POST-well...Another story. Nice to read tho. Conrad Black is a very hands on newspaperman. Think he owns all but the Cape Breton Post. Wud be sure he controlled all stories in la premiere issue. Bold statement to make or perhaps 2000 now is a no brainer-I duuno. tks fer da URL

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:16 - ID#377196)
@ Ravenfire Your "required reading for today" seems
also to require a password etc to get to it. Might it be possible to print the relevant stuff out for us non password-equipped people? Thanks

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:18 - ID#288295)

Something that might be comparable ( in a way ) to
your 10 grain gold coin question would be one
ounce silver rounds that have been produced by
numerous mints and some mines. For the most part,
these rounds trade as bullion - very little
premium to the metal contained.

Contrast this to the fairly large percentage
premium carried by government issues like the US
silver Eagle - obviously there is some premium
value set by purchasers for the issuer. The
question this is, is such a premium justified?
Perhaps so, if it is in some way a guarantee of
metal content.

Personally, I would have a lot of trouble paying a
100% premium for the convenience of using a small
gold coin. I WOULD NOT pay 200 or 300% premium
under any circumstance, when small coins like the
Mexican 2.5 peso are available today for about the
same price and contain a lot more gold ( I think ) .

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:20 - ID#433422)
ENVY and GOLDILOCKS, your replies are most appreciated,
and your points well taken. I agree that purity and weight can be hard to "guarantee", but assuming a legal guarantee could be attatched to the coin' and assuming the guarantor was, say, a trust account, and an indendependant auditor performed statistical weight and fineness checks, What would your opinion be then?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:23 - ID#30345)
@caper, am I crazy?
rare coins 45%
physical gold 20%
bond funds 25%
collectible guns 10%
stocks 10%

Yep. That's right, 110% figure I can't count on those stocks you know...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:26 - ID#288295)

It would help a great deal for public recognition, if the coin was marked with a common karat designation 22k, 24k, etc. Then the only question would be the weight ( mass ) of the coin.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:33 - ID#219363)
Silverbaron is pretty much saying what I meant to say. With a dollar, I know I can go to the store and buy something, it has a good market. With an eagle, I can go to my broker and trade it in for dollars, and in an emergency, I suspect I could trade it to others as well. A lot of the value is that it's backed by the government. My broker doesn't know me very well, and if I walked in and tried to trade a coin he'd never seen and couldn't look up in some book, he'd be suspicious. Okay, well, maybe he knows me well enough to do the trade, but that's the kind of thing a 10 grain coin would have to get passed. Establishing trust in a gold coin seems like the biggest hurdle, the reason being that people hold gold because it's a currency of last resort, and they don't want anything to take away from the trust. I mean, hmm, if anything needs to pass a trust test, it'll have to be a gold coin. My broker is always talking about different things that give me the impression that he's afraid of trading in quantity with people he doesn't know for fear of getting ripped off. Anyway, that's what I think. Silverbaron's silver example is a good one: I gave away small silver bars to a few people as gifts and they didn't get nearly the response that silver US coins did.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:36 - ID#433422)
Siverbaron, the marking would be ".999"

and your response is appreciated

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:41 - ID#300202)
Thought u & I were da only sensible ones here-but I do have my doubts bout ya. Little bit o da krazies in all who post here. But I love it. My only qualifications for posting here is losing 1/2 of my gold investments. Guess that makes me as sane as anyone else here. Off for more Wintergarten wine.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:42 - ID#411112)
I have to do this......many food fights of late between some of us in the gold business....and some

who were caught up in it......RJ works for a
very old ( started in the 70's ) company....for
all its "faults"its still there....offering a
service,I personally know of many gold
companys that have come in gone in the past
20 years.....the gold business has as many
scum bags as Wall Street one
really knows where

ics prices will go to-morrow next week or
next year ...its all a hunch ...a gut feeling
if you will.......having done what RJ does I
can only say that I think holding the
physical metal is long term a better plan
,this is not to say that one can and many do
make a killing using leverage....but like
Vegas one steps up to the plate lays it down
and "takes your chances"....the only advice I
have is if you are a sucker for a sales pitch
or to lazy to do your homework .....welcome
to the real world someone will hand you your
head...whether its a stock broker,financial
planner,gold dealer etc.....RJ has made some
good calls on platinum......I have made good
calls as well on it good
luck I call it a passion for what we
are the one that has to make the
call......besides "theres no
crying in baseball"

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:43 - ID#219363)
Wanted to add: This whole topic is an area of intense study by various organizations right now. I've paid close attention to the electronic protocols being proposed for on-line currencies as well as local and regional paper currencies, and these are the sort of things they have to deal with. Example: Ithica Hours, the local currency being used in New York. First impressions of the Hours seemed to be "Okay, I guess I'll accept 10 percent of the money in Hours just this once", and changes over time as people begin to understand that the Hours have a market, and that people will accept them as payment. All of the on-line currencies are currently being backed by something else, dollars, gold, etc, because there isn't a liquid market for "generic tokens". Anyway, I am in no way comparing gold coins to funny money, but they do share a similar set of problems if you want them to be accepted.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:44 - ID#288295)
grant @ .999

I understand where you are coming from, and so does everyone else here. However, I wonder if there is this same kind of recognition with the general public - methinks they associate gold with jewelry - this prompted my karat comment.

BTW, the little California souvenir fractional gold tokens ( usually marked in the 1950's ) are some items you might look at as a comparison to how a 10 grain coin would go over. I saw a package lot of these for sale the other day at eBay.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:45 - ID#288295)

I meant marked in the 1850's.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:46 - ID#401460)
NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - China's Guangdong International Trust and Investment
Corp. ( GITIC ) , a financial institution, has not made a coupon payment on a $200 million bond issue due Monday,a spokeswoman for Chase Manhattan Bank, paying agent on the transaction, confirmed Tuesday.

``Chase has not received payment. Thus, we have not made payment,'' said the
spokeswoman. She declined further comment.

A coupon payment of 8.75 percent payable semi-annually on the bonds due 2016 was due on Monday.

The 20-year bond had been sold in the U.S. in the 144A market through underwriters Merrill Lynch & Co. in 1996.

The Chinese government closed GITIC on October 6 due to its inability to repay maturing debts and government officials have said claims against GITIC could be registered up to January 6, 1999.

Beijing has said it will not bail-out non government institutions. GITIC has been the first major casualty of the government's new policy.
Well, I wonder what the fall out from this will be? The news has been out for a week or so and everybody is keeping their mouth shut.

There is still a news blackout, keep the public in the dark and everything will be all right attitude.

Public confidence drops 10 points.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:47 - ID#30345)
Don't forget the dimensional checking "teeter-toter type" jig.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:52 - ID#30345)
I heard at day traders that chase is giving them a 10 day grace period....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:53 - ID#147211)
longj teeter totter
Thanx. I forgot about them. Last time I saw one was in Thomas Register. There are slots for dimensions which are placed so the teeter balances if the purity is right. An ancient spacific gravity scale the goes in your pocket.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:57 - ID#288295)

Here's a piece of one of the eBay averts for
California gold tokens:

25 cent gold piece California 1872Item #37160517

"This is a California gold quarter, which private
parties minted from the 1850's through ( I think )
the mid-1870's. This is from 1872 or 1873 ( I
forget which, since it's been a while since I was
an active coin collector and I don't have it in
front of me ) . A terrible idea, I think; the damn
thing is so small a person would have trouble
keeping track of it if forced to use it for actual

(Tue Oct 27 1998 20:59 - ID#430221)
@ Grant I guess what it amounts to is that for an
unknown coin from an unknown mint you are having to trust that trust account so the value is not so much the gold as the trust part of it - that's be said in so many words by others also. Hard call. I remember the first time I was in south Africa on a concert tour many years ago when I knew nothing about gold and had never herd of Krugerrands and was pretty suspicious of them. I guess the thing is to get a lot of credibility and exposure/advertising etc somehow so everyone and their dog knows about the coin - not easy to do. Good luck if you do it.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:00 - ID#401460)
ERLE - John Glenn

Do you remember when JG was not allowed to go into space again after he fell in the shower and messed up his inner ear balance thingy, whatever it was? Funny how they can't do one of the test on him.

They also came out the other day with the mwdical warning not to fly after taking Viagra.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:00 - ID#237299)
EJ:@ funny money
AH, some of that Oswald & Co. payoff money has finally come to the surface.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:01 - ID#286230)
I hope this wasn't posted earlier
Bullion may return to its glory days

Intrinsic Value the Key: $2,000 ( Us ) An Ounce Seen as a Feasible Price

The Financial Post
Economic chaos and international conflict are a boon for gold, that refuge of panic money, so it is
no wonder the metal and gold stocks have fared miserably in the face of relative stability and a
seemingly unstoppable equity bull.
The recent reversal of markets' upward trend, emerging market currency devaluations and fears of
recession managed to lift the Toronto Stock Exchange gold and precious metals subindex 55% in
September. But the metal itself has found it difficult to break through a ceiling of $300 an ounce ( all
figures in US dollars ) .
"Gold mining shares usually move anticipatory to the price of bullion, on upside or downside,
suggesting that the steep rise in gold mining shares may well be anticipatory to a rise in the price of
gold bullion," says Philip Spicer, president of Central Fund of Canada Inc. and long-time believer in
the monetary importance of gold bullion. "It appears there is a tidal change in the price direction of
gold bullion."
Mr. Spicer says the 18-year equity buying mania and simultaneous gold-selling mania are in the
midst of reversing as investors re-establish an interest in fundamentals, return to assets that preserve
savings and seek investments rather than other people's liabilities ( stocks and bonds ) .
"As financial assets become jeopardized and financial asset structures falter, historically people
look to put hard savings into something with intrinsic value that won't falter," says Mr. Spicer.
And he says only two such assets exist - gold and fertile land.
He believes a feasible price for gold is $2,000 an ounce, taking into account the decline in the U.S.
currency's purchasing power since the U.S. Federal Reserve board was created in 1914.
Many analysts question this forecast, but then he was also called a "gold nut" in 1971 ( when the
U.S. abandoned the gold standard ) for saying the metal should rise from $35 an ounce to $200.
In mid-January 1980, gold hit a record $835 an ounce, in response to high inflation, rising
east-west tensions with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and reports of surplus oil revenues
among Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries members being used to hoard gold.
Media reports from late 1979 show gold mania had spread to ordinary investors: people were
calling in sick for work to line up to buy gold and brokerage houses were extending their hours to
take telephone orders. Since then, however, the metal has lost much of its attraction as a safe
haven. Deteriorating Asian demand hasn't helped the metal's prospects.
But Robert van Doorn, gold analyst at Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon Ltd., says the sentiment is
changing again. He says forward selling by producers is holding the gold price down, as is a central
banker mentality that assets under management should generate returns and gold reserves should
therefore be replaced with investments in interest-bearing bonds.
"Over the past two years, people have forgotten about risk and said, 'No return, so let's forget
about [gold]'," says Mr. van Doorn. He views the metal as insurance, which "has been the
counter-cyclical asset that comes in handy when things go wrong."
Other gold analysts, including Douglas Cohen, of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., are
skeptical about a sustained gold recovery, saying the metal should have reacted more strongly to
recent upsets in emerging economies and Russia. One of the reasons gold has not regained its lustre
is "the fact that there are other alternatives available for those who want insurance ... many types of
derivatives now exist and are popular... Now the world's safe haven is U.S. treasuries," says Mr.
However, in the past two months institutions have started to look at gold and gold stocks, says
gold analyst Chad Williams at TD Securities Inc. He says this is a reversal from previous months
when short sellers capitalized on the threat of central bank selling, borrowing gold in the hope that
the value will fall and it can be replaced at a later date for a lower cost.
"Short seller and central bank influence has been mitigated ... now credit is more difficult to obtain
for shorts so it's difficult for shorts to take their big short positions," says Mr. Williams.
Since 1980, the Bank of Canada is reported to have slashed its gold reserves by more than 85%
to 88 tonnes, followed by similar destabilizing sales by Belgium, Australia, Argentina and the recent
proposal by Switzerland to sell up to one-third of its reserves, pending a referendum. Long term,
Mr. Williams says, gold would continue to be a monetary asset and the price will rise - producers
have cut back on exploration and development; the European central bank reserves will have a
15% gold holding; and countries like Russia are talking about creating gold-backed currency rather
than printing more money.
Patricia Mohr, vice-president economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, the world's largest trader of
gold through Scotia Mochatta, says gold has found a bottom and will move slightly higher,
averaging $325an ounce in 1999 compared with an expected $298 an ounce this year. She says if
the US dollar continues to weaken, investors might start to rethink the value of gold despite the lack
of inflation.
"Supply-demand is actually fairly tight and physical demand for gold is good," says Ms. Mohr.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:06 - ID#190411)
As usual, Silverbaron is the guy with the coin,
I have been trying to contact the Banco Centrale de la Argentina.
I am still trying to get these gentlemen that offered for sale 1.54 million ~1/4 oz coins.
They don't leave their fax machine on.
Ain't that sumpin? Do you think that this might be a hoax?
I will contact their embassy tomorrow.
There are those among us that would have scooped these by the kilo. I think that this is a hoax, but my mind is not made up yet.
When is the last time that gold was sold by auction? Incipient Alsheimer's leaves me blank.
--keeping you informed. Reuters might want to follow up. Nah, theyr'e college graduates.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:07 - ID#30345)
You could sell them plastic credit card sized holders to cope with the size.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:09 - ID#147211)
Silverbaron re gold quarter
They were "hand-made" . At $20/oz this quarter would be 6 grains if "pure". The 10 grainer is 1 cm diameter. Small. but for the time it is designed, it should work. There is no mint I can find that can do smaller than 10 grains. The Royal Australian Mint can , but that' s the only national mint that can.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:10 - ID#300202)
APEC Enquiry-Canada's biggest scandal-We gotta look a little dirty!
RCM Police recommended 11 of it's own officers were over aggressive BUT no charges to be laid. As my German neighbour wud say-Vaaaat's to do.
So-Commissioner i/c RCMP reports to Solicitor General who reports to Prime Minister Chretien. RCMP Commissioner has Cabinet Minister status. Hard ta figure. Gold to $2000 not difficult. National Post did not say 2000 U.S. or Cdn. Which one is dee best?????

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:11 - ID#252150)
Bushwacked by the AU PPT today.
They got an assist from the Chinese who protected their JY/USD knockout option by selling the USD. The weaker USD encouraged the AU PPT to try to get the POG back over the 200 day MA. I covered my first PDG short at a substantial loss early this morn. About an hr before the close I went short again. I did'nt like the way things were unwinding about 15 mins before the close, so decided to cover the last short at a small profit. That's when the XAU PPT sprang into action. Within the last 10 mins they managed to push the XAU so far up that I could'nt cover my PDG short.

I'm so pissed that I would write my member of Congress if I had one. I suppose I could write my MP ( motherfu**ing parasite}, but what good would it do?

Luckily I managed to catch the XOI PPT napping & am up .80 per share on my PDS short. I think I'll take another big hit with my PDG short tomorrow. I wonder if all the people that bought PDG today noticed in their Q3 report that their dididend was cut by 2/3.

No doubt about it. It's really tough for an honest speculator to make a living nowadays.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:12 - ID#45173)
@Obsidian & Selby
Selby, only about five times ;- )

Obsidian, my guess is someone had the money stashed away. So, what that $10 worth now if he'd bought gold, bonds, or stocks with it in 1950?

I'm off doin' some caclulatin' The gold's easy: $83.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:13 - ID#401460)

Lets take another poll:

Will Brazil make it

The three-year fiscal plan is seen as crucial to prevent the world's eighth largest economy from becoming the latest victim of global financial turmoil that has already claimed much of Asia and Russia.

But state elections on Sunday raised doubts about how effective Cardoso will be in getting the plan through the country's unpredictable Congress and qualifying Brazil for a multibillion-dollar loan led by the International Monetary Fund.

The government must save or raise at least $20 billion to meet a target agreed with the IMF of posting a primary budget surplus, excluding debt costs, of 2.6 percent of gross domestic product in 1999.


PS: The Bottom Is In. Look at the charts.
Hard Assets

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:17 - ID#288295)
longj, chas

Charlie - 6 grains, huh? I don't work in these units so I didn't have a feel for how much the Cal. tokens weighed. Grams and troy ounces, I understand. I have a couple of those tokens, and they are really, really small. From memory I would guess that the 1/4 token is about 1/2 cm major dimension.

longj - good idea about the encapsulation - this would defeat the problem of handling the small coins.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:18 - ID#190411)
JG fell in the shower while kissing ___. This guy is the one we were to supposed to worship when we were children.
Did you ever watch the idiotic obfuscation that this clown stooped to during the circus of the Senate hearings?
He's a political hack that was able to elbow the serious asstronauts away for the limelight.
A monkey did it first.

I don't know what to make of the XAU stuff. GC98Z closed OK, but I wouldn't hang my hat on that one.
Besides, LGB is buying NA golds, which makes me suspect everything.
What did I miss? Last night Donald posted XAU/POG @.237. Buy time, but this?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:19 - ID#30345)
Caper: I think $200 cdn will be better, cause those dollars ( US ) are going to take a severe beating...

Selby: We have to get to 325 with momentum, that will turn their greedy little heads...then the fun begins...

highrise: No. but I think they'll get th fiat anyway....

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:33 - ID#411163)
Highrise-I vote for Brazil to tank. Too many problems
papered over for too long. Mexico may go first. I still have a bad feeling that something big is in the works over the last two weeks.
Everything is just too jumpy for no apparent reason.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:35 - ID#290456)

XAU PPT ..... absolutely the funniest thing I've read all week!


(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:35 - ID#263179)
anybody know
what a one pound proof american eagle silver
dollar is worth {on box it say's 3-1/2 in diameter
layered in pure .999 fine silver [what does layered mean]

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:36 - ID#35757)
Lighten up on JG. I wont defend him as a politician, but I think he has earned the right to fly one last time.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:37 - ID#35757)
It means it silver plated. Dont waste your money.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:37 - ID#190411)
Highrise Brasil pole,
The Brasilenos will not recover. They have a gommint that put them into the untenable position that they stew in now.
The IMF'kers have led the way. The forbidden is to; cut gommint, cut taxes, end subsidies, allow freedom, convertible real money: the liberty thingy.
This is the last option, that we cows, will have to physically fight for.

If you believe that the credit bubble in Brasil will heal, then see the history of Wriston's Citibank in the not so long ago 1970's.
Mexico, Peru, Argentina, Uraguay, Paraguay, USA.

Old Soldier
(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:40 - ID#185274)
Layered means it is plated. The plating is so thin as to be essentially worthless. The thing is a trinket, nothing more.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:44 - ID#30345)
I, for one wish the shuttle had more seats, wish we could send all of them up there for one big parade.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:45 - ID#300202)
Kanada Kancels Trade Trip To Russia.
Yeltsin p'd off. We kan play tuff wit da big guys. Move over Amerika. Vee have two warships for Kosova. No long winded posts plse but why was trade trip cancelled? Is Yeltsin de-commissioned. Saw him rock n'roll once. Bout as funky as Nelson Mandella. Ever see Nelson rock?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:48 - ID#252150)
Read a funny interview of Grace Slick of Jefferson Airplane fame today
in the Globe & Mail. She did everything except heroin during the 70s & screwed just about everyone in all the bands. She's 60 now, looks fairly healthy & only does booze occasionally. When the interviewer asked her about her current sex life, she replied that she's alone now & prefers to sleep alone so that she can fart. Kind of puts it all in perspective.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:49 - ID#423313)
Anyone know why the Daily Quotes web page on the USAGOLD site has not been updated since Oct. 22?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:50 - ID#286230)
I hope I never rock like poor old Boris did on TV recently. Mandela might look a little rocky too but the major upheavel comes when he doesn't bounce back up --or so it looks from here.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:51 - ID#300202)
was gonna go to bed-Hope Fran stays awake while I wait for Erle's
retort. Hang on Erle till I get another wine.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:52 - ID#190411)
I saw your question about a week ago.
I wanted to reply to you as a small favor to repay what these gentlemen on this forum have taught me.
"Layered", means plated. Stay away from this. If you want precious metals, you must consider something that doesn't jerk your string on first glance.
I sense that you are looking for a modest "in" in PM. I'd suggest a small position in a metal of your choice, but, watch the sharks.
I have found US three-cent silver coins with a bit of historic value, for 3.00-5.00 per. A tiny coin as this is far better than a mass marketed "slug".
If you have limited means, there are some real tightwads here that have really good insights on collecting.
If you would like real poop, go to GOLDSHEET

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:52 - ID#219363)
My guess, Brazil is going down. My understanding is that the country is running a trade deficit that started last year, and there isn't too much hope when that happens, especially when nobody wants what you're selling. Further, things I've been reading seem to have been saying that a strong dollar was important to Brazil's exports to Asia, and that now that the dollar has slipped, it's not so good for Brazil. Gotta bring in more money than you spend, least that's what my accountant says. Tax cuts, reduced government spending, IMF funding, whatever, all the tinkering in the world ain't gonna help Brazil sell more stuff than it buys.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:58 - ID#190411)
I don't know what it's about Caper, but, I'll listen.
What did I ever say to you that offended you?
Roll on.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 21:58 - ID#190411)
I don't know what it's about Caper, but, I'll listen.
What did I ever say to you that offended you?
Roll on.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:03 - ID#300202)
Yeahhhhhhh. U can identify. Saw This hour has 22 mins last night or one of dem dere shows-u know what I mean-Air Farce or whatever-doin a Yeltsin skit-not movin'-then fallin on his face. Have to be Cdn to comprehend.\The one I love lately is Mary whatshername in the face of politicans-surprise raids-like the PC debate where Mary jumped up on the stage & Joe Clarke blew in her ear. Americans wudn't understand-Aussie's wudn't either.
Canadian Air Force presonnel not req'd to fly our helicopters. AS IF THEY'D REFUSE. Sorry for the Prophet remarks.
Yeah - maybe Americans wud understand-Sat Night Live Humour ( with a Newfie flavour ) gone ta bed.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:06 - ID#293386)
Just checked Daily quotes on USA. They were spot on with correct date.

Ronald Jett
(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:06 - ID#413119)
Sunshine Mining reports

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:10 - ID#300202)
U have never offended me nor did I intend to offend u. Lighthearted musings. Sorry to have not further clarified. Enjoy ur posts.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:20 - ID#401460)

Hummm, Brazil....... sounds like you were describing the US.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:28 - ID#300202)
Just heard CBC News-Peter Mansbridge-"What did the RCMP give to the Queen that offended her?" Started out with BURMESE. Can't look a GIFTHORSE in the mouth. And he does not bite or kick. Named JAMES. Already as CBC states Prince CHARLES has his eyes on James. Maybe one more Wintergarten fore bed. Believe one of da family is called horseface. Shame-now I've become a Kitco regular! Promise I'll just look for sane investment advice & NOT SPEAK!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:29 - ID#423313)
Thanks MidasWell!
My bookmark needed updating. USAGOLD appears to change the url for that page every once in awhile. Looks good again.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:33 - ID#219363)
I guess a falling dollar would be good for US exports, all other things equal. Seem to remember recently hearing fisherman on the west coast complaining that their markets had dried up because foreign consumers couldn't afford to pay the $US. Who knows, this is just a big ole mess.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:40 - ID#34191)
ENVY?? You be pullin' my leg or is y'all on sump'in? Thought you said 10,000

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:43 - ID#286230)
Don't forget that Saturday Night Live, when it was worth time to watch, was and is produced by Canadians and most of actors/actresses were also Canadians from Toronto's Second City Theater--and don't for where Doug Flutie learned to play football. And I think the royal family has enough horses--whole and in part and so do we.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:52 - ID#401460)

We are not knocking JG's hero status, heck I drove all the way to his home town, New Concord, to watch the parade 30 years ago. It was a big deal for sure. May do it again, we need heros today.

Local News Stations here already have people at the lift off.

Politically, John Glenn,like the Chinese, got what he wanted from Clinton. JG all of his life has had to put up with Politicians, Kennedy, Johnson, ...Clinton. He's good at it, that's why he went up the first time and what's his name the test pilot didn't. How fast we forget.

Chuck Yeager

By the way John Glenn may be Ohio's next Governor, lead line for the late news.

I had a one on one business meeting with the man once. Just business then, now I look back and think it was pretty cool.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:54 - ID#219363)
Nah, I was just foolin around. I'd be amazed if this thing went to 10000, scared even.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 22:55 - ID#238422)
EJ, here is a computer era life saving protocol...

1. REM: It's normal to feel strange under wadka influence
2. A$="don't": B$="worry":C$="you":D$="still":E$="drink more"
3. ADVICE1$=A$+B$
4. IF C$=D$+B$ GOTO 6
6. ADVICE2$=E$
7. GOTO 3

Hope it will help...

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:00 - ID#300202)
Selby-Beyond Gordon Pinsent we don't have any heroes.
No Marion Andersons-John Waynes/Audie Murphs. Cept-Bruno Gerusi & Jessie on the Persefhonne ( phonetic )
Selby-u think much more right brain than me BUT CBC showed Cdn soldiers
walkin streets in Fredericton ( under the guise of Bosnia practicin' ) . Showed one pvt. sayin"Gotta smoke bud?" Showed typical red neck Maritime re-action to the soldiers. Lippy!. De-sensitization. It's here! going ta bed before ur reply. NOT A NICE PICTURE! SOLDIERS PATROLLING FREDSERICTON NEW BRUNSWICK. VAAAATS TA DO?????

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:00 - ID#277224)
Price of Gold
Anyone like to gaze into the proverbial crystal ball
and postulate as to what tomorrows going to bring in
connection to the POG????Feels like it may undergo a
slight resurection ,but with all the multifareous
variables its difficult to imagine which one is going
to be thrown into the mix to protect the $USD

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:00 - ID#350194)
@Selby and Caper
I just tuned in and was wondering about your banter. Is this piss off our Yankee friends night or what? If so mah fallow 'merikins, please do not get too serious on me now, here? ( In t'other wards, leave those bazookas south of the border when you come up for a visit! ) This came to me via a CERTAIN fellow located in that distant war-torn state of Isshrael:
"Subject: 4 Canadians only

Top 10 Reasons for Being Canadian:
1. It's America without all of the crazy mad mothers imposing even
drunk driving laws.
2. Only country to successfully invade the US and burn its capital to
3. You can play hockey 12 months a year
4. Only country to successfully invade the US and burn its capital to
5. Where else can you travel 1000 miles over fresh water in a canoe?
6. A political leader can admit to smoking pot and his/her popularity
ratings will rise
7. Only country to successfully invade the US and burn its capital to
8. Kill Grizzly bears with huge shotguns and cover your house in their
9. Own-an-eskimo scheme
10. Only country to successfully invade the US and burn its capital to
the ground - and the beer!"
( Obviously the above was not written by a Canuk. We could easily come up with hundreds of reasons and have the whole world ROTFLTFAO - including our portly neighbours to the south. ;- ) )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:07 - ID#401460)
Here we go again!

I wonder how much Goldman Sachs and Chase have invesyed in Brazil?

U.S. Treasury's Rubin Says Brazil Important To United States
Rubin Says Brazil'S Fiscal Program Is Strong
Rubin Says Key For Brazil Is To Implement Fiscal Program Quickly
Rubin Says Key For Brazil Is To Implement Fiscal Program Quickly
Rubin Says Key For Brazil Is To Implement Fiscal Program Quickly
Rubin Says Key For Brazil Is To Implement Fiscal Program Quickly
Rubin Says Key For Brazil Is To Implement Fiscal Program Quickly

This is a very critical time and I think the move in the XAU suggest that those in the know are moving to Gold.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:07 - ID#432130)
Up until last week I believed the crash was coming this year, but now I think "all the tinkering in the world" ( particularly by the Fed ) , will be able to hold it off until next Spring. Im not trying to make predictions here. I think its kinda obvious, or will be soon.

: )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:09 - ID#286230)
A good night's sleep and a 6pak of Moosehead tomorrow should do it. Remember that Canadian soldier handcuffed to a Flag pole by the Serbians. No real problem at home. If the is any difficulty remember that the worlds longest undefended border is only undefended on our side.

Lan Man
(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:11 - ID#320108)
@From CNI daily market quotes
Here is an interesting situation developing over the US Platinum Eagle bullion coin. You will note that there is no ask on our quote today. This situation will continue for some time until the US Mint works out a problem on the production and supply of blank platinum planchets ( the disk of platinum before it goes into the coin press ) . This is the type of supply and demand situation we expect with platinum over the next few years and why now is the time to add to your holdings.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:14 - ID#432130)
Goodnight everyone...
And remember: "Bearx is a Bull Trap".

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:14 - ID#286230)
Who admitted to smoking pot? And don't forget the Americans have been using the White House since their revolt and it is actually owned by a Canadian. I hope Jesse Helms is reminded of this every time he belches about Canadians using Cuban property previously owned by Mercans.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:14 - ID#300202)
Oh yeah-we got da Blues Jays
from the Dominican Republic. NWO started in Fredericton, New Brunswick.
Sorry-but now I'm not joking!!!!. Luv it Mooney. One more Wintergarten.
commin Fran. Soldiers been in Bosnia before. How does this equate with Fredericton ( spelled it right dis time ) .
My local politician-Peter Mancini says-Yes-we do have a problem.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:17 - ID#286230)
Stompin Tom
Hang in there Caper. It is all going to come up smelling like fresh air and drinkable water. Going to Stompin Tom's concert and hope all is well in Skinner's Pond.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:22 - ID#433172)
Brazil has been on my books for years as a model for economic failure. The economy has been tailored to follow the familiar pattern of the rich getting richer the poor getting poorer. The path to disaster, and the USA is moving in the same direction.

Anybody deal with an outfit named " California Numismatics", are they OK?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:25 - ID#300202)
Armed versus unarmed-IRS/Revenue Canada-Canada Custom/U.S.Customs-their Sherriff's versus ours-U.S. CoastGuard versus ours ( ours doesn't protect anything ) . Michigan National Guard sends us a fax & we surrender. Gotta go & explore Fredericton more. Serious sh*t. Oprah for Pres. She'd win.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:28 - ID#219363)
I guess the truth will come out on the tape. The GOOD stuff I see for the equities is that earnings really aren't that bad for the quarter, bad, but not that bad, at least from the companies I've paid any attention to. The market did see at least two days when there was a bit of a panic sell, so that's a good thing for people who were looking for a bottom. High dollar had been hurting exports, so lower dollar seems good in the longer term. FED did jump in there and show some leadership, I mean, at least their paying attention, I hadn't expected them to come through with the first rate cut. There is good stuff and a reason, in my opinion, to be bullish if you're of that frame of mind. The BAD stuff I see is that the panic sell sessions weren't that much of a panic, and the last one fizzled before it finished. The FED obviously has something on it's mind and stepped in to help LTCM for a reason, the reason being that it would have hurt really bad had LTCM gone under, and that's kinda scary. The slope on the last rally, to me, was absurd, and is bearish. The Nasdaq techs dropped for a few days, but come on, they never really dropped much at all. Average earnings are lower than this time last year but the market is higher. The timing on the rate cut was suspicious. Long term, you can pull out a map and watch the trend move across the oceans, and it's coming here, of that I have no doubt. Common sense tells me that if one neighborhood in my hometown suddenly went to hell, and then another one, that eventually that'd be bad for my neighborhood. Japan is a pretty big neighbor. Equities are still over-priced a lot. The biggest bearish thing I can "feel" right now is the uncertainty with the bears, and the bullish sentiment that's out there right now, sort of, "it's over, let's buy". That's the thing that's keeping me in my position, because I don't think this is over by a long shot. It's only been in the last few days that the bears have started giving up, and to me, that's bullish for my bearish position *grin*. Who can say, who can say.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:28 - ID#350194)
Calm Before the Storm
He drove to 'Grandad's Park' at the end of one of his usual long days; just to have a few 'human' moments for himself - to commune with - nature - and relax, now that business and family were put to bed.
Hale Bebop, Saturn, Venus, conjunctions, El Nino in back of mind, Leonids on the Horizon, car coasted into park beside pebbled shore of moonsprayed pond. Radio off, listen to wind and night. Utter silence; broken fragily, at odd intervals, by Canada Geese caling to mate. Perfectly Golden ( Kitcoites will naturally at this point omit the 'en' ) translucent Half-Moon shining on expansive dead-still pond. So calm 'tis, that one can almost ( but not quite ) count individual leaves in perfect reflection loving admired. No wind, no cloud, not even the faintest hint of movement. Evening - October 27th - Rouge River Pond - T.O.
Calm before the Storm?

( Selby, int. others, - Pt. Union @ Lawrence )

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:31 - ID#28882)
My Friendly Dealer Says....

Posted earlier here that silver spreads had narrowed and that this was a good an indicator as any re future price movements. ( Certainly better than the waves, triangles and pig entrails that seem to be in vogue. ) Well, they widened out by close. Go figure.

BUT - My Friendly Dealer tells me ( this guy works on the desk of a tier-1 bullion bank - you'd all recognize the name ) that physical demand is extremely strong. India is on fire, inventory in the supply chain ( consignment dealers, etc. ) is stretched taut and lease rates are edging up. MFD also predicts warehouse drawdowns in the near future. And he should know -- he's one of the guys drawing 'em down.

The supply-demand gap has narrowed somewhat but is still in the 100 m. oz. range. A good deal of the liquidity this year has resulted from Buffet leasing out his stash. Well, it would take about a year to go through this stash and we're now at nine months. That liquidity now seems to be drying up thus comes as no surprise.

I don't go on the record often here but I will now: The Dec contract will expire at levels considerably higher than we're seeing currently. All metal bought sub-five bucks can be traded profitably over the next two months. Put this one in the bank.


(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:36 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

Soon to be traveling in the opposite direction.

Normally this indicator is excellent at picking tops.
But of late it has been a little slow as the markets seem to be travelling at lightening speed.
The cycle of the oscillations is too fast and too violent.

We will soon see how good it is at picking this top.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:37 - ID#286230)
Now now don't forget -- Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretsky, Leslie Neilson, Spielberg, Conrad Balck, Festinger, Gould, Neil Young, Graham Bell, Villineuve, Intrepid, Buick, Oldsmobile, Chrysler, the first jet passenger plane, safe nuclear reactors, peace order and good government--no colonies. Sleep well buddy --you are the envy of most of the world.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:39 - ID#286230)
have you heard of Best Bitter XXX?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:39 - ID#300202)
Stompin tom
Best singin thru da nose I've ever heard Selby. Sexier than Anne Murray. Gotta go back to Reuters-Feature on drinkable water as next crises. Got the Merkans by da balls on dis one. Can ya short water errrr go long. Went long on gold-think I'll go short on freshwater. This is it. No more Winegarten. don't know where u live Selby but hope u enjoy ur Go Train/Subway/Streetcar/Go Plane/Go Bus + ur 20 min walk to work. Non sardonic statement. Luv ya'all. Tunin da A.M. fer real gold news. Lookin fwd to up & down sideways movement towards 2000. Go Conrad Black!!!!!!

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:42 - ID#286230)
Say what?

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:49 - ID#284255)
I've never heard of the brand. Beermakers Bitter Ale XXX
I haven't done home brew for a while but like the Coopers one best.

I'm normally of the habit of chugging slabs of XXXX.
A local Queensland brew.
Quite poisonous really.

Many thanks for all the compliments.
It will change quite a bit soon.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:50 - ID#300202)
Left out Burton Cummings-Stand Tall-got My Own Way to Rock-Pinball Wizard-
world's best Rocker but unfortuneately from Winnepg-but got his own building now-BUT -so do the Ghermazians ( don't think I spelled it right ) -anyway it's for sale. Wanna buy it. World's biggest mall in Edmonton. We got da Mayflower Mall in sydney-200 less shoe stores. Commin Fran.
Burton is a real hero-better than Ed Sullivan. Yoko Ono-new John Lennon scandal. No Jesus. Barak wud agree with that. Qualification-no ill will intended.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:50 - ID#304282)
Today was a very obvious reversal day
We exceeded yesterday's high in the morning. We then exceeded yesterday's low in the afternoon. We closed below yesterday's low, and below the midpoint of today's range. This satisfies the criteria for a key reversal day. here is the chart. Look out below.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:55 - ID#286230)
Good grief have we a problem here. Says Bitter XXX is the most popular home made beer in Australia. Made in Kirrawee. Cost C$12.95 for about 60 bottles.

(Tue Oct 27 1998 23:59 - ID#293389)
@George- California Numismatics Inc.
I have dealt with CNI. I received excellent service from them.I believe their prices are very competitive.