Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:00 - ID#284255)
Whispers from the net
The reason I wanted the questions is because of a conversation at work.
A General Contractor that is finishing up a job on a local military base
mentioned something to a electrician about y2k and he wanted him to come
over to his house and look at his electric, and tell him what size
generator he would need to run his house. He stated that he had some
information that he considers to be very reliable because he knows
someone higher up that told him they ( the power company ) will definitely
be down for 7 days, and if they don't do or complete something by that
time they could be down for as long as 4 to 6 months. I couldn't catch
all of the conversation because of jets taking off. He didn't mention
who told him, but I trust this guys word because I know of some of the
connections he has, both civilian and military.

The base is in Fl. I don't want to say much more till I do some
personnel checking.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:05 - ID#286230)
Don't forget BTO-Backman-Turner Overdrive, Paul Anka, Shinia, Wilf Carter, Suzanne Sommers, Paul Garneau, Pablum, cobalt bomb, Molson's Export, snowmobiles, poutines, Corel, Wayne and Shuster, Stephen Mooney,
the Royal Canadian Air Farce, Kitco, ice wine, --its all us buddy so sleep the sleep of the envied.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:06 - ID#284255)
XXXX Bitter Beer is possible the favourite of Queenslanders.

But VB is considered the 'Very Best' in OZ.

Bitter XXX I have never heard of.

Sure it's not advertising blurb?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:07 - ID#293389)
Sorry. I should have been more specific. I don't know what you are looking for but, my previous post pertained to gold bullion coins.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:09 - ID#25490)
What a pleasure to see so much Canadaspeak at kitco tonight,
"Only country to successfully invade the US and burn its capital to the ground."

Isn't there a memorial to Brock overlooking the Triumphant Battlefield? Memory dim. Brock was a Guernseyman, eh?

Help with Canadian coins plse..

What ( if any ) % Ag have the Canadian one dollar coins with Canoe on reverse? TIA, eh?


(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:09 - ID#190411)
Gee Selby, you can have Paul Anka
I'll take Anne Murray.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:10 - ID#286230)
I hope it isn't just advertising because I've got about 4 gallons of the stuff fermenting in my basement. Let you know in about 4 weeks. Is there a place called Kirrawee NSW?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:12 - ID#401460)
Watch List

Utility Index - very important to watch, major change in direction, oposite of 87 crash?^UTY&d=1ys

XAU Index - notice that Gold is reacting in the oposite direction from 87 crash?^XAU&d=mys

XAU look what happen the last time XAU broke above the moving average line like today.

30 YR Bond - rates have been going up? They are inflating the S&P?^TYX&d=3ms

VLO - a contrarian indicator of oil, it fell again today, watch this co.

OIL - scroll down, a bottom appears to be formed?


(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:12 - ID#286230)
We already have Anne Murray: ) . Want Trudeau--he is still mobile.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:12 - ID#25490)
Maple Surple
Did anyone mention my cousin's friend, John Candy?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:17 - ID#286230)
Brock's monument is at Queenston Ontario --not too far from Buffalo and Lundy's and where the invaders also lost a battle and prompted Laura Secord's chocolates as a lasting tribute to their defeat.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:18 - ID#190411)
If you Canucks could flush,
the socialist toilet, the offal would go to Massachusetts and Vermont. Sorry, I see that the holding tank is to the brim.
That's not fair, We have as bad an infestation as you.
I'm sacking out. Carry on your anti-american screed.

I'll trade DC for Calgary anytime that you wish.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:20 - ID#286230)
Sorry Erle. Didn't mean to offend. Perhaps mozel will favour us with 3-4 screens of the Federalist papers and put it all to right.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:20 - ID#401460)

Who Sold?
Gold ( CMX )


(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:23 - ID#401460)

Before you sack out,

I will take Paul Anka......really the Big E is the Man, The King of Rock n Roll.



(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:26 - ID#190411)
Trudeau is still mobile because there is noone to immobilise it.
If I was still dealing in slaves, I might trade trudeau for a clittin and throw in an algore and the lowly gingrich. I might bargain lower, but you'll just have to hold your breath; say about three seconds.
Night Drop over Canada.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:27 - ID#401460)
Spot Gold @ Kitco
October 28, 1998
00:19AM New York Time

Timezone Equivalents
Change from New York close

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:28 - ID#286230)
Whatever you like Erle. Good night.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:31 - ID#277224)
@Paul Gold-----DROOY
Very interesting 3rd.quarter results from DROOY.Just picked up a few
shares today.Now all we need is a little spike in the price of gold
and we could be in business.Thanks for the info about the anouncement!
Can go to the wrapper now.Nite all, your comments very entertaining
and maybe even profitable.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:33 - ID#190411)
Good night to you too, Selby
may God bless Canada.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:34 - ID#219363)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:35 - ID#401460)
Nikkei 225

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:37 - ID#286230)
I believe God already has

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:41 - ID#284255)
F* You made my day(:-)))
"Oh, on second thought, who really're beyond hope."

Which bank uses the slogan in their jingle?

--------------"Which Bank"-------------------

That's the bank, that's the clue.

Ask any TV bug and they'll recognise the jingle.

There's going to be lots of 'Boy Scouts' soon.^o-o^

Did you read

Absolute must reads for any Australian citizen.
It's a long report but worth the time to read through to the end.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:41 - ID#277224)
Just a thought or should I say a question.Is Lion Red a beer
that is common to Australia or just NZ?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:55 - ID#190411)
Selby, No doubt is there?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:59 - ID#219363)
13549.00 -271.68 -1.97%

(Wed Oct 28 1998 00:59 - ID#340262)
Fund Quits
Hedge fund calls it quits - cjk_

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:02 - ID#25490)
goodnight to the merkans and canucks, sleep well. learnt quite a lot about borders and beligerence, waist-lines and waste-lands in past couple of hours.


I have been enterically enraged by recent unenlightened enism at this golden encounter site. Enough, I say enough of this enormity! I am engorged with ennui! End this enism, it is no longer entertaining!

You may ask, endearing reader, what is enism? Would you enjoy an engaging enumeration of this enveloping entwinement, the entombment of enism? Then, entrust me with an enunciation of this engrossing enigma:

When the golden-eagle was encroaching on the encyclopaedic endeavours of our enchanting golden site, an entrenched engram was encoded that eternally engrafted an en between the words goldeagle.

This encription was enacted to enhance both envy and enmity between golden-eagle and this entrepot, the_enclave@kitco.

The ensuing entropy and engluttonment ended enlightenment for all entreprenuers@kitco. For the en became enclitic when enclosed and enveloped with gold and eagle. The en was enrolled as an enfant terrible to endamage the enemy encephalon versus encephalon. Till the entire world was entangled in an endocrinic enfilade.

Hence my enragement at enism.

I entreat the enemies to enclasp an entente cordial. Let both encompass endlessly and enclasp endearingly. Hence, unencumbered by this enervating disenfranchisement we can all enrich our enjoyment and enkindle the enormous enrapture of this enterprise.

I should like to entice the entire entourage of kitco to enthusiastically enjoin with me in this enormous endeavour:

End "enism"

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:04 - ID#288349)
Nikkei -304
All Rubin's dollars and all Hashimoto's spin;
Couldn't make Nikkei bullish again.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
Lion beer is not really accepted here in OZ.
Not strong enough content.
Although I was weaned on it back in NZ.

Yes that is a town in NSW.
And I would hazard a guess that it has nothing to do with Queensland XXXX beer.

I'm sure it will be good for your health though.
Don't forget to stock up on a few cases of your favourite brewing kit for Y2k.

You may become the most popular guy in town. ( :- ) ) )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:11 - ID#411163)
Aurator-thats easy to write-like to hear you say that fast 3 times

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:18 - ID#401460)
IMF Exec: More Bad Financial News

``We're likely to get more bad news on the real side, which will give rise to further volatility on the financial markets before the crisis is over,'' he said at a news conference.

``There is going to be very little financing available for many emerging market countries in the period ahead,'' Larsen said.

``I don't know how long this ( credit crunch ) is going to last,'' he said. ``My suspicion is we have not quite seen the end of it.''


(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:28 - ID#401460)
Japan 5 Day Chart^N225&d=5d


(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:31 - ID#333126)
re: yesterday's required reading
oops. forgot about the password thingie.

for reasons of bandwidth saving, i won't post the entire article ( it's copyright violation technically anyway )

but ...

you can use "cypherpunks"/"cypherpunks" as the login/password for that site ( without the quotes ) ... works on quite a few sites too. just keep it quiet.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:34 - ID#220325)
Aurator re Canadian silver dollars
If memory serves correctly pre 1967 Canadian Silver dollars had 80% silver You can tell by the color and the ring when dropped. The 67-68's had 60% and after that they became as worthless as paper money with no silver content. I checked on the Canoe backed dollars I have and they range around 1953-63. I don't know how long the were made.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:36 - ID#333126)
yesterday's url again

hope the article is still there.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:36 - ID#386245)
Are you guys discussing my favourite topic??
Well...3rd favourite...after gold know ( not necessarily in that order ) . BEER. As sharefin so appropriately states, VB is the king of beers in Oz...though I have yet to taste a bad one. Kiwi beer just as good. Steinlager...mmmm.

Speaking of Kiwis, I almost need an en ema after that last post{:- ) ) ) .
Guess what I did today?? You got it. Have started replacing the gold shares I sold 3 weeks ago. I usually jump back in too early, but was enticed back by a flirtatious move in the XAU. I can't resist when gold shares lift their skirts. Probably just a spike up, in which case I shall exit, stage left, with haste. Before the big bad bear returns.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:37 - ID#219363)
Thought I'd post a little autumn poetry at this late hour, I can't remember where I picked this one up. Kind of off subject, please forgive the intrusion. Forum is a little quiet this evening.

Once upon a Lammas Night
When corn rigs are bonny,
Beneath the Moon's unclouded light,
I held awhile to Annie...
The time went by with careless heed
Between the late and early,
With small persuasion she agreed
To see me through the barley...
Corn rigs and barley rigs,
Corn rigs are bonny!
I'll not forget that happy night
Among the rigs with Annie!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:38 - ID#254288)
No more______Wait til next year

Soros closing a fund; Buffet showing interest in LTCM. It doesn't add up.
A speculator throwing in the towel, or conservative Buffet putting Berkshire at risk, much to lose.

Then we have ( it's still a rumor, cause they won't admit it ) that Goldman Sachs will be putting UBS to shame by having lost $900 billion in one month. Would you admit it?

Rubin caught between his country and his lifes labor. Will he stay?

Gold getting ready to rumble; about time-go for it.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:39 - ID#333126)
nick@c re: equities tanking
could be dangerous with those shares if the big one drops soon, buddy.

i've been buying put warrants, dunno about you...

wonder how much the aussie market is gonna go higher with this story of reduced inflation and a possible interest rate cut...

ctr is looking cheap again, yes?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:52 - ID#341227)
Worth a Repost...(did you pay attention, REALISTIC?)
@REALISTIC....I hope you paid close attention ( see post below ) .

Hey, you forgot to let the entire KITCO forum know about my ONLY specific gold prognostication for the month. I guess you're slipping I'll just have to fill in for you in your absence.

Oh, by the way....COMEX eligible gold inventory PLUNGES 30% yesterday ( Oct. 27 ) !


Date: Mon Oct 26 1998 21:59

farfel ( It looks like the gold wars are about to begin tomorrow... ) ID#341227:

...and I was beginning to think we'd have to wait until 1999.



(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:54 - ID#386245)
Yes,mate, CTR looks great at these prices. Closed at .37. Year low is .35 on a spike down a while back. They are sold forward for 12 years at good prices, which limits the downside ( and upside ) in gold. They are dropping in price right now because of the big hit that nickel is taking. They will be one of the cheapest nickel producers in the world. The cobalt credits will make the nickel almost free!! Anyhow, look at the charts. They are at multi-year lows. Could go lower, but upside is now many times downside ( IMHO ) .

Put warrants are a dangerous business. I've done well on them, but usually buy when exhuberance gets excessive. If the DOW goes to 10,000, our reserve bank cuts rates ( on the cards ) , then our all ords could easily go to 2800+. When that happens I will be buying puts till the cows come home. Cheers, Nick.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 01:55 - ID#219363)
IMF Exec: More Bad Financial News
By LAURINDA KEYS Associated Press Writer

SINGAPORE ( AP ) -- More bad financial news and foreign exchange volatility will occur before the Asian economic crisis bottoms out next year, a senior International Monetary Fund executive said Wednesday. Because of severe risk aversion among institutional investors, a credit crunch in major markets, as well as emerging ones, "may last some time," said Flemming Larsen, the IMF's deputy director of research. Further interest rate reduction may be needed, especially from Europe, he said. "We're likely to get more bad news on the real side, which will give rise to further volatility on the financial markets before the crisis is over," he said at a news conference. "There is going to be very little financing available for many emerging market countries in the period ahead," Larsen said. Financing is just what is needed to help the restructuring Asian economies recover. But investors were spooked by the Russian devaluation and are now fleeing to quality investments and looking to reduce debt and exposure, he said.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:02 - ID#219363)
Consumer Confidence Down Sharply
By RACHEL BECK AP Business Writer

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Consumer confidence sank to its lowest level in nearly two years in October, raising further concerns that Americans will cut back their spending this Christmas and leave retailers with lackluster holiday sales. The Conference Board reported Tuesday its index of consumer confidence fell 9.1 points to 117.3 from a revised 126.4 in September. The last time it was lower was in December 1996. October's decline, the fourth straight month of retreat, was much larger than Wall Street analysts expected. The index now is down 20.9 points from its 29-year high in June. "Consumers are very nervous," said Dan Seto, an economist at Nikko Securities International Co. "They watch the extreme market volatility and hear of the economy slowing and wonder what it means for them." Continued global economic turmoil has left Americans bracing for tough times. Feeding consumers' concerns are new signs that the U.S. economy is slowing and continued volatility on Wall Street. Stocks fell Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping 71.32 to 8,360.89 in late afternoon trading. That's nearly 6 percent above where it began the year but 10 percent below its record high of 9,337.97, reached July 17.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:10 - ID#252391)
HIGH RISE and IQC. com charts
Thanks for the reference to the IQC charts, however, for about 10 days now I have been having a very difficult time getting anything to come up on IQC - any body else having problems. The chart page seems to load then I get a "Document Done" message but all I have to look at is a beige page with a little yellow writting in the top left.

What - have they gone so high tech that my brouser can't pick it up - I have looked at this on two computers and had the same problem


On the comex gold stocks - very significant shift from eligble to registered which, if my KITCO 101 serves me corrrectely, means the stocks went into storage under and in the possession of a party who is not obliged to deliver them against an outstanding short position.

AND FARFEL - did you know what you were talking about when you said gold ars or just a lucky guess. Man, if gold is down on Wednesday the charts will look UGLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gold down a $1 tonight, PT down $2.50 Silver rally fizzling - glad I didn't load up on this false hope.

Tomorrow NEM may very well reverse 75% of what it gained today if gold is down a buck - talk about volitile - seems the overseas markets think the world will hold together another week.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:13 - ID#284255)
Cory Hamasaki - always a good read. ^o-o^

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:30 - ID#401460)
Soros to shut $1.5 bln emerging markets hedge fund ( Reuters )
NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - International financier George Soros says he plans to close his $1.5
billion emerging markets hedge fund, which has dropped about 31 percent in value so far this year, and
that Nick Roditi, who runs two other Soros' funds, was temporarily leaving for medical reasons.
- Oct 27 6:16 PM EST

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:33 - ID#401460)
Gold ( CMX )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:34 - ID#280214)
Much has been said her about returning to Gold & Silver money.
But the realities are far different from Goldbug dreams.
For months I've tried to stir up interest among Kitcoites
for an effort by some private group or government to mint
a series of Gold & Silver coins to be used as commonly
circulating and universally accepted money. I had thought
( and still dream of ) some government like New Zealand
minting all their money in Gold and Silver and thus having
their currency become a defacto world standard because
it is 100% Gold backed - obviously SINCE IT IS GOLD!
Gresham's law actually works in favor of such an endeavor.
So what if most of the coins get squirreled away.
Just buy more Gold & Silver and mint more coins - at a profit
- historically known as seignorage {though not nearly
as much profit as with paper money but only governments
can get away with such a rip off}.
Minting a billion ounces of Gold would use 31 thousand tonnes
and thus surely nudge up the price of Gold at least a little!
{I'm being sarcastic due to yesterday's posts on this subject}

Since no government - except recently Russia {and many of us
have reason to question their motives} will do this, then
it opens the door to private entrepreneurship. {If you want
a job done right, then often you must do it yourself.}

If Y2K and other events trash most national currencies
( as many of us believe} they may open the door to a
private series of Gold coins to assume the role vacated
by those currencies.
If Y2K does not torpedo increasingly digital currencies
{smartcards, etc.} all transactions will be monitored and
recorded and private transactions will seek other avenues.
Thus private, honest, physical Gold & Silver money has
a role in the underground economy that exists today and
which will become more prevalent - Y2K or no Y2K.

As I've posted here many times, I hope an entreprenurial
interest will mint BILLIONS of Gold coins to saturate
the market, fill up the hidey holes, and overflow into
general circulation.

Two series of new Gold & Silver coins could do this by
starting with the smallest mintable Gold and Silver coins
and progress up to the largest convenient pocket size coin.
Small change in Silver = 10, 40, 100, 400 & 1000 grains.
{at current Silver prices the above could be equal to cents}
Stores of value in Gold = 10, 40, 100, 400 & 1000 grains.
{at current Gold prices the above could be equal to dollars}
If the Gold/Silver gap widens due to the Gold/Silver ratio
then the 1000-grain Silver "cartwheel" would be needed,
otherwise its size and weight would make it inconvenient.
If the ratio narrows then both the 10-grain Gold and the
1000-grain Silver could be eliminated from the series.
The 1000-grain Gold coin would rarely be used for trade.
it would usually sit in a box somewhere as a store of value.

Without financial foresight and backing to mint BILLIONS of coins
Gold and Silver will NEVER again be used as commonly circulating money.
There simply is not enough "junk silver" and Gold coins of any type
to fill the demand for the amount of money needed by our economy.
Even just one-tenth of M1 ( a trillion dollars in the US} can not be
covered by the Gold and Silver coins now in existence, especially
since numismatics will unlikely see the light of day in common trade.

At a POG of $300 and disregarding large numismatic premiums
there may be approximately $50 billion in $20 Double Eagles,
$9 billion $10 Eagles, and $6 billion in $5 Half Eagles,
and $2 billion in $2.50 Quarter Eagles and $1 Gold dollars.
At a POS of $5 and disregarding large numismatic premiums
all the US Silver coins minted {and many have been melted}
there can be no more than $4 billion in Silver dollars,
$3 billion in Silver halves, $4 billion in Silver quarters and
$4 billion in Silver halves. The number melted is unknown.
New Gold and Silver Eagles together are only about $1 billion.
The grand total thus can be no more than $70 billion in Gold
and $15 billion in Silver. Since many of these coins have been
permanently rat-holed or melted the remainder available for
circulation is a mere pittance of that needed unless our economy
collapses to a point where only one percent of our current M1
is needed to support it {or an underground economy is that size ) .

If anyone has information to the contrary, please post it here.

Thus - the point of this long post is that if we Goldbugs really
want our dreams of Gold and Silver to return to their role of
commonly circulating honest money then one of the following must occur.
1 ) the economy must collapse to match the Gold & Silver money supply
2 ) the prices of Gold and Silver must increase tenfold ( unlikely due to
the level of political manipulation of these prices, esp. the POG.
3 ) some organization mints BILLIONS of Gold & Silver coins as real money
to be commonly circulated and universally accepted for common trade.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 02:58 - ID#386245)
futures 02:57 am

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:01 - ID#224230)
Japanese first to see that consumism not equal happiness
Most world market analyses seem to boil down to a conclusion that "we must stimulate demand more" - i.e. encourage people to go and buy more things.

Now for the last few years we've seen a country that no matter what - cannot been induced to this behaviour. And let's reflect : Japan, due to the post WWII debacle, were the alst country to jion the materialism/consumerism=happiness game, and seem to be the first to have given up on it. Not coincidently - they also have the oldest demographic. In otherwords we have a LIFO scenario. A similar mindset weems to be emerging in Germany - as the Easterners are beginning to show the westerners that there are less self-planetary destructive ways to achieve happiness.

If this is the case and one by one countries deeply INTO consumerism=happiness reverse direction, the world is in for some dramatic structural adjustments.. If it follows a reverse order, the last country to see the light will be the first to embrace the philosophical illusion - USA.

I'm not sure what POG ramifications this will have, thougg noted in a previous post that for gold to be a useful letgal tender we would need worldwide economic collapse and a 10fold POG increase.

I can visualise that. ( though plan to make enough out of the whole messy meltdown to buy my Ferrari ( I'm a new-agey closet consumerist ! )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:11 - ID#224230)
Pardon the typos - a little more of an idea.
Back to Japan -

And analyses of all other resulting phenomena in Japan, from socio-economic commentaries to financial analyses are analysing the results of a changing human condition there ( not analyses of causes ) .

They've spent 7 years now, saving instead of spending - are they finding themselves less fulfilled or "happy" ? As an older civilisation they know that materialism is a 20th century thing ( for them a mere 1 generation post war thing actually ) .

And in their philosophical grander scheme of things a single generation is a blink of an eye.

We should study Japanese economic behaviour closely as they may be a harbinger of things to come. Taking into account social differences of course.

Oh yes - and I almost forgot....GO GOLD. ( They are.... )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:23 - ID#26793)
Mexican equivalent of Alan Greenspan faces impeachment

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:30 - ID#26793)
Bailout deal for Brazil postponed at least a week.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:37 - ID#386245)
Metal Prices--SAVE THIS SITE
If you invest in mining shares, this is a good URL to check every day as a part of your info gathering routine. You can bet that the 'big boys' are looking at this info, and place their 'bets' accordingly. Cheers, N.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:38 - ID#386245)
try again

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:38 - ID#26793)
Buffett offer for LTCM hedge fund is refused; his bid seen as too low

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:46 - ID#386245)
Great Site!!!
Gives you the price of various metals for every day of the year. London Metal Exchange.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:50 - ID#386245)
Metal news

(Wed Oct 28 1998 03:50 - ID#280214)
longj & chas at 20:47 and 20:53 re: teeter totter tests
There is NOTHING with Gold's density worth less than Gold as a coin. Only tungsten has about the same density and if somebody figures out how to make coins out of it then those coins would cost more than their weight in Gold. Uranium and plutonium are up there too but I wouldn't expect coins made out of them. The next nearest metal is Tantalum at 16.6 gm/cc and is likely still worth as much as Gold if made into a coin.
If it has the density of Gold or any PGM then it is worth its weight it Gold.

Chas, if you find one of those teeter totter density checkers let me know.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Tuesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Tues 27 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.81---------------1.44-------------1.44-----------------1.80
( Change ) ---- ( + 0.01 ) -------- ( - 0.05 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ----------- ( - 0.01 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----3.50--------------2.60--------------1.90-----------------1.75
Silver Lease Rate---1.72--------------2.62--------------3.07-----------------3.00
( Change ) ------ ( +0.85 ) -------- ( + 1.10 ) ------- ( + 0.85 ) ----------- ( + 0.65 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

Note the sharp rises in Silver Lease rates. They were last at these levels around 9th Oct. Regards...................Dabchick

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:04 - ID#386245)
Who needs a 'teeter totter density checker'???
When I buy a gold coin, I use two tools.

1 ) 'World Gold Coins' by Kraus, Mishler & Bruce. Lib of Congress 85-061548/Int. Standard Book No. 0-87341-213-3. Try Amazon.

2 ) Professional mini- digital scale /Tanita Corp./made in Japan. Measures accurately to .1 gram.

These are all you need. The digital scale cost @A$200/$US125. You check what the coin SHOULD weigh in the book and then you weigh the coin. If it was made of copper or an alloy and plated with precious, then it would be much bigger than the size in the book. If not sure, then measure it. Don't have to check specific gravity or use teeter totters.

Last but not least--deal with professionals and not the 'PSSSSSSST--Hey meeeester, have I got a deal for YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUU' types in the back alleys.

The person you BUY from should be quite happy to BUY BACK from you. His take should be no more than 5-10%.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:05 - ID#280214)
in my 02:34 I made one error - the Silver section should read
"At a POS of $5 and disregarding large numismatic premiums all the US Silver coins minted {and many have been melted} can total no more than $4 billion in Silver dollars, $3 billion in Silver halves, $4 billion in Silver quarters and $4 billion in Silver DIMES."
When I copy/pasted, the last item ended up as halves instead of dimes.

Also: I should clarify that M1 is about $1 trillion and that all the old and new US Gold and Silver coins total up to less than a 8% of that amount.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:09 - ID#228134)
Hedge Funds And Gold News



Wednesday October 28, 3:34 am Eastern Time

Hedge funds seen staying active in gold -Rothchild

TOKYO, Oct 28 ( Reuters ) - Hedge funds are expected to remain active in the gold market in spite of the near-collapse of U.S. hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) last month, an industry expert said on Wednesday.

At a gold conference in Tokyo, Robert Guy, director of investment bank N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd said funds active in gold have different characteristics to LTCM.

``They are, in the jargon of New York, 'directional', they simply speculate one way or the other, up or down, it's not a particularly fancy piece of arbitrage. That's why I think they will survive,'' he said in a speech.

Hedge funds active in gold were squeezed by banks but they would not be squeezed out of existence, he said.

On gold production growth, Guy said rates were slowing under the weight of low prices.

``Within 3-5 years output could be running at levels approaching 500 tonnes less than what could have been anticipated if a price of $350-400 per ounce had been maintained,'' he said.

He said new production came from emerging markets, but that the future availability of both debt and equity finance in these countries should be questioned given the current international financial uncertainties.

Regarding a downturn in economic growth, Guy said its impact on the gold market was still unclear.

He said revised and downward projections for gold production could result in a gap between demand and supply of newly produced gold, widening further in the next century.

This gap has been met principally by the central banks in recent years but the volume they sell are expected to be relatively small, he said.

``I do anticipate further central bank sales over the coming years but in the immediate future, against the current background of international financial crisis, it would seem to me a strange time to offload gold reserves unless one was a distress seller,'' he said.


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Questions or Comments?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:10 - ID#280214)
Nick@C - for coins not in the book
As in cottage industry creations - like reloaded ammo.
Then a check of density and color will be needed until trust is established. So I could buy Gold grain from Bart and hammer out my own. But nobody would trust 'em without a doublecheck.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:11 - ID#252391)
Silver at $5.01 AGAIN
The increase in lease rates seems to be coming on about the same time as we are seeing a move in the metal. After checking out the $4.95 zone seems we are moving on up. South African golds up 2.4% at 1100. Dollar weaker against the SF and DM and yen. HMMNNNNN???? Is this the move in silver we thought would never come.????

Anybody else having problem with IQC charts.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:17 - ID#290172)
Sorry--Gold is NOT priced in dollars...

GOLD is that which PRICES! at least it looks that way to me! {:- ) )

3P Gold
Date------3P JPY-----3P DEM----3P XEU---POG USD
Wednesday, October 28, 1998

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:18 - ID#226284)
DROOY article
Durban Roodepoort Deep boosts cash profit 95%
Tuesday, October 27 1998

from E-data

The Durban Roodepoort Deep group boosted cash operating profit by 95% to R14,7 million in the September quarter on the back of a successful and now completed restructuring exercise.

Gold produced totalled 4212 kg against 4205 kg in the previous quarter and gold sales amounted to R228,4 million ( June R214,6 million ) . The overall grade improved from 1,73g/t to1,98g/t. Cash costs were well controlled, rising only by three percent to R50751/kg in spite of the implementation of annual wage increases from the beginning of the quarter.

In dollar terms, costs decreased from $296/oz to $254/oz, reflecting some of the weakening of the local currency. The acquisition of Crown Consolidated Gold Recoveries into DRD was concluded and Crown became a wholly-owned subsidiary on September 14.

Managing director Mike Prinsloo said in a statement on Tuesday the group's growth strategy and objectives were now firmly in place.

"Since the enlarged DRD was created last year a great deal of management attention has been devoted to consolidating the various operations into a unified entity capable of realising the synergistic benefits of the merger.

"This involved the rationalisation of these operations, the building of the new team, the establishment of high standards of financial and administrative housekeeping and the evolution of a distinctive culture," Prinsloo said.

He said the growth strategy would include the further development and expansion of the group's existing resource base, which in itself had a large amount of untapped potential.

Growth by acquisition remained a focus for the company. The statement said the approximately 50 million ounce Argonaut project -- the deep level deposit underneath Johannesburg -- was on schedule with R58-million having been raised for a bankable feasibility study through an issue of shares earlier this month.

It said that future funding for this project would most likely be undertaken through a separate company to avoid dilution for DRD's existing shareholders.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:24 - ID#386245)
For example
When I was in the Phillipines I bought a beautiful $20 double eagle Coronet Head, '1906 D' for $40!!!!

It weighs 21.9 grams. Should weigh 33.436 grams. Those thieves took a real double eagle, hollowed it out through one side, filled it in with copper?? and sold it to gullible tourist. Only a well-trained eye can spot the fake. Well, not so gullible. When someone offers you a double eagle for 40 bucks, you'd have to be an Amerkan tourist to think it was real!!! I bought it so I could brag about it to youse guys, and help a developing nation's economy. Sorry Yanks. I see that the Canucks took back their site yesterday and gave you Yanks heaps, so, was just joining in on the feeding frenzy. BTW--did I ever tell you about the time I was scuba diving in S.Oz and this great white......

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:25 - ID#413109)
Jims & IQC
The problems you described are the same as those that I had a couple
of days ago, but it seems it was at heavy access time. Pobably similar
to Kitco, when we were unable to access.
They've added so many features that more users are probably causing
the problems you described.

What can I tell you but--keep the faith, and patience, aye?

The Yauger read that the PMs should go up into the spring period
btw, is what my work had been showing as well. It always bothers me
when someone else is aboard, what with my contrarian attitude.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:31 - ID#254288)
Squirrel: All we need are the right people in DC

I'm speaking only for the US and this is a rough outline and is open to much better ideas than presented here.

1. The price has to consider the industies and people whose livelihood will be effected bythe gold price rise.

2. The government has to make it clear that this gold is merely standing behind M1 money supply which has become excessive. That the selected gold price will reflect this excess money and as a result no inflation of normal items and services will occur because of the new gold price. In general gold jewelry will go up, as perhaps certain every day items in short supply.

3.The US Treasury will take over administering the banks and schedule repayment of the national debt over 10 years. Fractional Banking will be limited and laws on usery ( say any interest over 4% is usery ) will be enforced. Banks will only exchange gold national gold with the indivigual citizen, never will large business or banks be able to own national gold.

Lets say that a gold price is selected and it would cover 40% gold backing of M1 plus some figure for starting the systematic devolution the national debt.

I am using 1.063+0.75=$1.813 trillion whichallows somemoneyfornew gold purchases and national debt paydown finding its way into M1.

At $1500 gold with 40% backing minus the present 262 million ounces we would require an extra 221.5 million ounces.

The government would have to slowly and carefully get this gold into reserves as buying the gold would put new money into circulation and it would have to be done so not to effect M1 adversely while achieving this backing and also putting new money into circulation as the US Treasury bond debts are erased.

I would say a good portion of the tax dollar would help here.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:38 - ID#284255) (:-))))

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:39 - ID#386245)
If it ain't in the book:

When you need to sell a gold coin in a hurry, it had better be easily recognizable and fairly common. Otherwise you will have to go to 'experts' or dealers. Not easily done if gold is 'banned' and 'confiscated'. That's why I stick with something my local Chinese mates will trade for a couple hundred pounds of rice.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:45 - ID#252391)
Houston - we have lift off/
The JGAI is off to a 3.5% gain this morning - looks like it is chasing time again.^JGAI&d=5d

NICK - thanks for your comments on IQC. Great service but I feel they probably have gotten so fancy that grade C brousers and modems can not deal with the down load time. One is forced to upgrade.

Who was it that said on this board that after is said and done what do we really have but a faster modem. It was better said than that - I'd like to have framed it.

Anyway, these markets are giving off the signs that something is happening under the surface. Out of my small long positions in the traditional stocks yesterday. I've lived through enough failed efforts at resistance levels to want to wait for the DOW to break through 8500. I got the feeling that the market was doing all in could in a neutral news environment. One knezz and down she'll go.

I'd like to see gold stick it right through #300, silver above $5.25 and PT rip $360 all in one day. Boy do you think the CNBC talking heads would be turning then. Running around asking everybody WHY???

Ah the things dreams are made of......
How many high school teams do you suppose are invested in gold mining stocks.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:48 - ID#252391)
TO Reify
Sorry Reify, thanks for the feed back on IQC.

SILVER UP 15 cents in London at $5.10 - Hello Hello

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:52 - ID#386245)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:54 - ID#252391)
South African GOlds
This longer term chart shows the excellent pattern developing in the South Africans. Last at 1114 the index is solidly in an uptrend with all moving averages following.

Paul Gold
(Wed Oct 28 1998 04:55 - ID#21484)
DROOY quarterly report
The Durban Roodepoort Deep quarterly results which was published on the web yesterday in South African Rand and metric terms has been converted into US$/imperial terms. The report is available at

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:02 - ID#280214)
Jack: your 04:31 has lots of good ideas to get Gold back to where we need it.
But as you state: "All we need are the right people in DC"
Ay, and there's the rub!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:03 - ID#367411)
@Jim, Silver Raging!
Hi Jim!

Looks like silver is making a move.......this is just what I need today.....try to keep it running!


(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:05 - ID#386245)
South African Goldies up 3.75%
Let's get this avalanche rolling UP the hill folks!!
Fruit of loins will be pleased, JD!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:07 - ID#185448)
Kalimera to all, especially to aurator, the Duke of Nea Zilandia and to Nikos Canabeerakis. ( Sorry, but just returned from holidays on a greek island ) .
You guys should visit europe and load up Yellow to discount prices. We will see what we will see, but I tell ya: we are on the right side of the swing.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:14 - ID#386245)
G'day Fredakis@Viennakouris
Buy any Greek gold coins, mate?? Did you try some of that aniseed liquor?? Arak?? When you have detoxed, tell us about the beautiful Greek Islands.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:20 - ID#386245)
Quick!! Someone call the GPT!!!
( Gold Plunge Team ) , before I make some money.

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:23 - ID#24135)
RSA golds ..
To all ..

The best way to take a long term look at the jse-gold
index in US$ terms is to use ASA as a proxy for it.
Reason is that prior to 1993 the index was based on the
finincial rand then subsequently the commercial rand.
If your software permits .. try constucting an
intermarket index of the south africans versus the
North American mining companies. Use weeklies and take
an 8-10 year period. Let the index equal ASA divided
by the XAU. you will find that ..
1. since about 1990 the South Africans have fallen
by about 50 % against the NA mines.
2. If you apply an ewave ON THIS intermarket index
you will find that we are near the conclusion of
a long wave 5. Any sharp move up by the RSA mines
against the NA mines will probably mark the
beginning of a reallignment between them resulting
in a relative revaluation of the South Africans.
It's getting interesting now .. some of us are in the
NA camp and some in the RSA camp ( and some the Aussie
camp ) .. some of us will prosper and some feel pain ..
That's good .. this is after all a money game .. like
a blood sport. If there's no blood .. then where's the
sport in that ??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:28 - ID#252391)
Time to get out the old Silver Stock play book. Little comparison below looks at CDE, SSC, HL and PAASF shows over the last 6 months that HL has been down the least.,HL,SSC,PAASF&PH=2

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:34 - ID#284255)
Y2k and it's effect on stock prices.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:36 - ID#284255)
Forgot to add this one
As in U.S., Australian companies tight-lipped about Y2K readiness

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:39 - ID#367411)
@Jim re Silver
Hi Jim!

Regarding silver stocks, I can't believe you don't have SSRIF in the play book.......any reason?

I picked up some silver futures 2 days ago ( yen based ) ....I hope the gains in the yen don't destroy today's move.....take us higher!

Good luck,


(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:51 - ID#29048)
Encore Encore! I enthusiastically endorse your entreaty for the end of ennism. Wait til Sheller gets hold of this. : )

Heavy volume in the wee hours for both gold and silver futures. Hi yo Silver!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:56 - ID#248180)
Currency Wars
WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 28 1998 From "The Financial Times" London
Columnists 

Europe's tug-of-war
The European Union will play its part in staving off a world recession. But, says Martin Wolf, it will come about largely by accident
The great depression of the 1930s resulted from the failure of a still relatively young central bank, the US Federal Reserve, to halt the collapse in the banking system of the world's foremost creditor nation. Today, there is global financial turbulence and a leading creditor economy has a still newer central bank. This creates a clear challenge for the European Central Bank. How will it respond?

In the US, the lessons of the great depression are still in the public mind. Both the worries about the world economy recently expressed by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the cuts in interest rates it has made, bear witness to that. But Wim Duisenberg, the ECB's president, is heir to a different tradition. The Bundesbank's culture, with its devotion to price stability and strong dislike of activism, infuses the ECB. As he remarked on October 13th, "it is of the utmost importance . . . that proposals inspired by policy activism that do not take due account of the complexity of the issues at stake are avoided".

The mandates and status of the two central banks are also different. The Federal Reserve has the twin objectives of full employment and stable prices; the ECB's overriding aim is price stability. The Federal Reserve is a creature of legislation - in its own words, "independent within the government". The ECB is the product of a treaty. By virtue of its traditions, mandate and status it is much less likely than the Federal Reserve to respond to immediate economic concerns.

The question is whether Europe - and, for that matter, the world - can live with this. It is sharpened by unexpected changes in circumstances: instead of a smooth glide to the activation of the ECB at the beginning of 1999, there is political change inside Europe and economic upheaval outside it.

The political change is the European Union's pink shift, with the centre-left in control of 13 of the 15 member states. Much the most important change, however, is in Germany, where the new coalition brings Oskar Lafontaine to the finance ministry. Mr Lafontaine has more than a French name: he has, in many respects, a French, if not neo- Keynesian, approach. For example, he wants target zones for currencies. Germany has proved a fickle mistress to Europe. First, she insisted upon a "monetarist" monetary constitution and then, just when it is about to go into effect, elected a government that would almost certainly not have negotiated it.

The economic change is the global financial storm. For a long time European policymakers behaved as if this was happening in far-off countries of which they knew little. Now even the European Commission has noticed something is occurring.

In its recently released autumn forecasts, the Commission claims that "in the troubled waters of the world economy, the EU appears to be an island of relative stability. . . .This will not make the EU economy completely immune to the world financial storm, but will protect it to a large extent." It is both depressing and characteristic that the question it asks is whether Europe will survive the crisis, not how an economic superpower might halt it.

Nevertheless, the Commission is right to applaud the internal benefits of economic and monetary union. There can be no better indication than what has happened in Italy, usually among the first victims of economic instability. Antonio Fazio, the highly conservative governor of the Bank of Italy, has felt able to cut short-term interest rates to 4 per cent. More startling is the fact that Italian government 10-year bonds bear a yield of 4.48 per cent. This is a little higher than the 4.13 per cent in Germany and 4.21 in France, but it is below the US, at 4.66 per cent, and well below the UK, at 5.07 per cent.

The newly stabilised EU is in a uniquely favourable position not just to survive the crisis, but to ensure it ends in modest global slowdown, rather than deep recession. The Euro-11 shares with Japan a large current account surplus, in which it differs from the US. It shares with the US the ability to generate growth in domestic demand, in which it differs from Japan. This makes the Euro-11 pivotal.

The global turmoil has two linked elements: financial and real. The financial aspect involves losses on lending to emerging markets and other relatively risky investments. Those losses undermine the ability and willingness of banking institutions to take risks. This then is leading to a tightening of credit, notably in the US. Meanwhile, the combination of the collapse of demand in Japan, with the disappearance of credit to emerging economies is also forcing large shifts in global current accounts ( see chart ) . Some countries' imports will have to balloon if emerging markets are to export their way out of recession.

In its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund argued that the increased external deficit would emerge almost entirely in the US. The US current account deficit is forecast to jump from $135bn in 1996 to $290bn in 1999 - an increase of $155bn. Meanwhile, Japan's surplus is forecast to rise from $66bn to $136bn and the rest of Asia's deficit of $37bn to become a surplus of $90bn - a combined swing of nearly $200bn. Unfortunately, the Euro-11 is also forecast to show a rising surplus, from $87bn in 1996 to $108bn in 1999.

This pattern, in which the Euro-11 has a rising current account surplus when the Asian region is shifting so massively into surplus, is more than just highly undesirable. It is unlikely to happen. The weakness of the dollar against the D-Mark - a 7 per cent depreciation since late August - suggests why. Market turmoil is, it appears, beginning to claim the dollar. The yen's strengthening may be a problem, given the fragility of the Japanese economy. But the rise of the D-Mark is just what any economic doctor would order to cure current global ills.

Now consider what these developments mean for the Euro-11 and the ECB. There were already good reasons to expect the euro to be strong: the world would want to diversify its reserves into the new currency.

To this needs to be added the current economic situation. The currency of the one economy that is showing sound growth and a large current account surplus is bound to be in strong demand. The resulting appreciation of the euro will help keep European inflation low and, more important, shrink output in relation to demand, thereby reducing the current account surplus or, better still, shifting it into deficit.

This is what must and, in all probability, will happen. The question for European policymakers is how. The most probable outcome is one in which monetary policy is fairly conservative and fiscal policy loose. This may be thought of as the Reagan-Volcker scenario for the euro: in the early 1980s, Ronald Reagan as president ran big US budget deficits, while Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve, ran a tight monetary policy.

Under this scenario, short-term interest rates fall to the level in the core countries - 3.3 per cent. This amounts to a fairly modest loosening in the euro area as a whole, as rates in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy fall to the German level. Given the price stability target - an increase of less than 2 per cent - and current area-wide inflation of around 1 per cent, the ECB concludes that it need do nothing more.

If the euro is strong and the current account deteriorates sharply, or if demand slows by more than expected, the result is an unexpectedly sharp decline in economic growth. Instead of the 2.4 per cent now forecast by the Commission for next year, growth falls well below 2 per cent. Unemployment rises. The fiscal picture will also start to deteriorate, with governments happy to blame this outcome on the obduracy of the ECB. Meanwhile, the ECB justifies its cautious policy by pointing to the profligacy of governments.

The outcome of this unco-operative approach to the crisis is bad for the fledgling currency union. But for the rest of the world it does at least generate the external adjustment it desperately needs. The Euro-11 merely accepts an unnecessary slowdown as the price of the necessary external adjustment.

There is an alternative, however, well laid out in a recent report from the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research.* Under this, the prospective members of the ECB would respond to current dangers with still lower short-term rates, while inviting the governments to respond by reducing their structural fiscal deficits.

The aim of this policy mix would not just be to strengthen the fiscal position in the medium term. By comparison with the first scenario, more of the needed external adjustment would occur via demand expansion relative to the trend growth of output, rather than by output contraction relative to trend. This is external adjustment with growth, rather than slowdown.

It is an accident of history that brings a new central bank and a new monetary constitution to Europe during a global economic crisis. But the EU is a decisive player in the turmoil. The aim of the Euro-11 and the ECB must be to combine economic stability at home, with absorption of some of the external adjustment emanating from Japan and the afflicted emerging economies.

The response to financial crises always need decisive leadership. Business as usual is not good enough. In Europe, however, there is just one ECB, but many governments. Whether it likes it or not, the new central bank has, if not greatness, a heavy responsibility suddenly thrust upon it. The ECB may hate policy activism. But sometimes it cannot be avoided, as the Federal Reserve learned in the 1930s.

*The ECB: Safe at any Speed?, Monitoring the European Central Bank 1, October 1998

Contact Martin Wolf:

(Wed Oct 28 1998 05:58 - ID#252391)
Yes I have looked over SSRIF - isn't it traded in Canada as well - that's where I must have gotten the slim fundlemental information I had. I rather prefer producers at this point. SSRIF on an opening above 1 1/2 could set up a pretty good little break out for a 1/2 point to 1 point run, I suppose. Email exchanged with the company once - was supplied plenty of info.

Why do you work the Japanese silver market - a play against that currency and for the metal??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:10 - ID#185448)
Was kicked a** two times, when I tried to submit my comment.
Tried to buy ancient gold-coins, but without success, either the sale is prohibited by law ( could not verify this definitely ) or at least pegged to an official permission. Learned that it is easier to get hold of them back home in OZtria. Concentrated by that on local "bycantine-style" Jewellry for mam sahib & baby mam sahib - with big success... They make beautiful things in 14ct and 18ct.
The "liquor" you mentioned is "Ouzo" and was made to kick an honest man out of his boots, if he is careless enough to drink with the local population. A person of taste uses Ouzo probably only to disinfect the bathroom but- its an integral part of the spirit of the greek islands. Man - you must luv it! You should go there once!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:12 - ID#367411)
@Jim Re Silver
I like the amount of silver ( underground ) you get for your dollar here, although it was more attractive at $1 and under. Picked some up at $1 after failing to get any at $3/4.

2. Yen Silver Futures
I take out yen-based contracts because I live in Japan, and it seems to be easiest to handle the market with a local broker. Another advantage is that the market here is "not closely watched by the tax authorities". It would be simpler from a price analysis perspective to buy in $ ( don't have to worry about exchange rate as a key variable ) , but for now the yen futures are what I will be in.

Good luck!


(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:24 - ID#248180)
Oris & ALL- Russia Survises & Celebrates Oktobrasskiya Revolution
Oris, It Must be Paradise Yes/No?
First a Gold Backed Ruble & Now Increased Vodka Production for the masses

Russia to Step up Vodka Production

MOSCOW, Oct. 26, 1998 -- ( Agence France Presse ) Russia will step up its production of vodka by 60 percent in 1999, Interfax quoted Deputy Prime Minister Gennady Kulik as saying.

He pledged the government would "do its utmost" to boost production from this year's level of 820 million liters of vodka and other alcohols.

Distillers have complained recently of an influx of foreign brands on the Russian market. In addition, adulterated alcohol has proved a problem, killing thousands of people a year.

Meanwhile, Moscow inaugurated a statue Saturday of Venedikt Erofeyev, author of an account of the tribulations of a Soviet-era drunkard which many consider a masterpiece of black humor.

Put up to mark Erofeyev's 60th birthday, the statue shows the writer apparently staggering, bracing himself with one hand against a wall while the other carries a small case containing an assortment of alcoholic delights.

Erofeyev, who said he had begun "serious" drinking at age 15, died in Moscow in 1990 at age 52. (  ( c ) 1998 Agence France Presse )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:32 - ID#43349)
Globex down, bonds up slightly, dollar down, PM's up, oil mixed.

Silver seems to be responding nicely. I was going to pull the lever yesterday afternoon, but I got called away on an urgent errand. Didn't get back till late last night. So I went down and gave it a little tug and went to bed.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:36 - ID#43349)
Maybe they should talk to Warren some more

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:38 - ID#43349)
Turning the corner

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:41 - ID#43349)
More turning the corenr

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:51 - ID#26793)
Hedge funds are still active in the gold market

(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:53 - ID#43349)
The implications of Asia turning the corner are ominous for the treasuries market. Flight money rushing home as the dollar drops.

Renewed competition on global markets for resources.

Coming after many countries have take steps to lower rates and increase liquidity.


Perhaps that is why gold and silver are beginning to stir.

They'll do more than just stir when the corner gets turned indeed.

The equity markets are staring to look a little more like a bottom as we cruise the eye. At market tops there are lots of mergers and new IPO's. At market bottoms there are lots of stock buy backs. Do not be too misled. We have yet to hit the far wall of the storm. By fourth quarter we will be hearing how really badly the banks have been hit by the same problems the hedge funds have. Through 1999 there will be growing concern about Y2K. Asian economies will be waking up, yawning, and stretching. Turmoil in the bond markets won't help either. The snake is not yet ready to retreat.

Paul Gold
(Wed Oct 28 1998 06:54 - ID#21484)
DROOY press briefing
At the press conference where Durban Roodepoort Deep announced its third quarter results the company chairman said that the Company would buy a gold mine in Australia. He also answered some questions about the Argonaut project. Go to to read one journalist's report on the press briefing.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:05 - ID#26793)
Sunshine and Argentina silver news

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:05 - ID#288466)
jims - More N.A. silver mining stocks for your play book
SIL Apex Silver
SSC Sunshine Mining
VSE: FSR First Silver Reserve ( also trades on TSE I believe )

And then the really speculative ones listed in the US ( not an all-inclusive list, only the ones I could remember ) BB: = OTC bulletin board listing

BB: RSMI Royal Silver Mines
BB:GSLM Grand Central Silver
BB: SBUM Silver Buckle Mines
BB: ABOT Abot Silver Mining
BB: ILDM Independence Lead Mines
BB: ASLM American Silver Mining
BB: ALSM Atlas Mining
BB: SHSH Shoshone Silver Mines
BB: SRLM Sterling Mining

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:09 - ID#288466)

GSLM may not be a BB: listing. Can't recall.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:09 - ID#200274)
He likes firesales.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:12 - ID#26793)
London morning precious metals news

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:15 - ID#288466)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:20 - ID#26793)
Political vultures circling above an ailing Yeltsin,1051,SAV-9810270033,00.html

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:41 - ID#43185)
How bad it was

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:47 - ID#24135)
Calmer in the afternoon ..
to all ..
JSE - Gold board calmed down and came back some..
now up a bit over 2 1/2 % with gold at $293.65.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 07:50 - ID#432130)
Brazil Devaluation... a "Bull Trap"...Ps/ Bearx is a "Bull Trap"

go gold, go silver!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:04 - ID#284255)
Perspectives in Numismatics


Chicago Coin Club


Tombstone Gold & silver

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:05 - ID#238422)
Hi, brother, I hope you're O.K.
In regard to your very valuable top secret
info on Russian plans to step up vodka production:
in Soviet times production of vodka was one of the
most important sources of revenue for the state.
Sounds silly, but it's a fact of life..."good Soviet
business practice"...also, I bet that because imports
are dropping dramatically, and everybody in Kremlin
knows the sad fate of M.Gorbachev, who wanted Russia
to quit drinking, and ended very poorly...Kremlin guys
must act now.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:06 - ID#210114)
Squirell 2:34
Spot on. You're dead right.

I never though I'd see the day when a goldbug torpedos the one dream close to all goldbug's hearts.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:07 - ID#348286)
Willson goes down under at Placer Dome

The Financial Post Oct/28
VANCOUVER -- In the drive to cut costs in a tough gold market, Placer Dome Inc.'s chief executive, John Willson, is passing the ball to his mine managers. And the strategy seems to be working.

In a restructuring that is dramatic for the mining industry, Placer Dome has gone rapidly toward a non-hierarchical management structure. The move has eliminated head office overhead and given much more power to front-line managers at the mines.

"This is something I have believed in for a long time," Mr. Willson said yesterday in an interview.

The company's much-improved third-quarter earnings, in part the result of improved operations under the new management structure, are "no flash in the pan," Mr. Willson said.

"The operating results are spectacular," said Manford Mallory, an analyst with Research Capital Corp. in Toronto.

In the quarter, the Vancouver-based company earned $33-million ( all figures in U.S. dollars. ) on sales of $336-million, compared with year-earlier earnings of $6-million on sales of $317-million. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, the company has earned $74-million on sales of $942-million, compared with year-earlier net profit of $35-million on sales of $917-million.

The shares closed yesterday at $22.50, up $2.25.

Placer Dome expects to produce between 2.8-million and three million ounces of gold this year.

The total cash cost of producing that gold was $202 an ounce in the third quarter. Costs for the year have averaged $223, at a time when gold is trading for $300 an ounce.

Mr. Willson believes that, with help from its forward sales, Placer Dome can realize $350 an ounce for sales this year. Even so, the push to cut costs continues because the company believes it can't wait to be rescued by recovering prices. It expects little recovery for two years.

Mr. Willson expects Placer Dome will be able keep its cash costs below $180 an ounce through the next three years.

"I hope in due course to convince you that we can continue this performance,' he told analysts in a conference call.

In its third quarter last week, Placer's rival, Barrick Gold Corp., reported its cash costs for producing gold this year has been $181 an ounce, down from $209 last year. The drop was achieved largely by phasing out high-cost mines and increasing output from high-grade operations.

Gold began a long slide from $414 an ounce in February 1996 to a low this August of $275, the result of selling or anticipated selling of central bank reserves and of investors preferring the US$ during the Asian currency crisis.

That slide triggered massive writedowns of reserves at Placer Dome of $110-million in 1996 and $288-million in 1997, pushing the company into back-to-back losses and propelling the restructuring that has devolved considerable autonomy to individual mine managers for the financial performance of their mines.

"There is nothing that concentrates the mind like low gold prices," Mr. Willson said.

The accelerating decline led him early this year to an initiative "to try and get the typical engineer operating our assets out of that box."

He convened a brainstorming meeting of 112 of his managers from around the world. From that emerged the restructuring that has flattened Placer Dome's management hierarchy. About 100 people have been eliminated at the company's various headquarters as responsibility has moved to the operators.

At the high-grade Campbell mine in Ontario, for example, engineers and geologists now meet with miners in the underground stopes to develop mining plans.

"There's a much greater buy-in to what's going on," Willson asserts. "As a result, productivity and costs at these mines are a lot better than they would have been on the traditional basis."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:08 - ID#43185)
Where will the shorts go?
As Asia turns the corner and the metals move up, the guys who like to short things will have to look around for soemthing new to short.

Things like mortgage and financial companies come to mind. Everybody and his uncle have refinanced their homes at the low rates so demand for new loans will be down as rates rise and the economy slows. These companies typically hedge their portfolios against treasuries and bonds, but treasuries and bonds will be going down. Also the dollars they are being repais with will be going down.

I can hear it now, T, Arnold and M. Armstrong rleasing rumors about central banks dumping low cost mortgages.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:23 - ID#119358)
I have filled areas of my sub-conscience with your posts.......seems to be working fine to date. good solid thinkin'....yes. salud!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:30 - ID#119358)
@my brOther Oris........(just in case you may have missed my earlier).......
I would be a proud papa for some of dat' golden ruble stuff....should fate allow. salud!!! ( gulp ) ( gulp )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:31 - ID#288186)
Howdy everyone! I'm back from a several day trip. I see Comex Gold eligible
stocks dropped significantly! Thanks to Arden, Silverbaron, and
Farfel and others, for their posts regarding this! It's getting
down to the wire. Will they be able to keep POG under control?
Hmmmmmm. Fox-man

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:33 - ID#43185)
The keyword is rout

FOREX: The reaction to the Brazilian austerity plan, announced in full by
Finance Minister Pedro Malan at 1300 GMT, will likely set the tone for the
dollar today. The broad themes of the plan, unveiled after Tuesday's close,
were not well received in Asia/Europe, and pressured the dollar lower,
particularly against the Swiss franc. Further disappointment risks the
sell-off turning into a rout.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:36 - ID#288186)
Unexpected surge in Durable Goods...
Orders for products expected to last
more than three years unexpectedly
surged 0.9 percent in September, the
U.S. Commerce Department reported
Wednesday. Economists expected
durable goods orders to drop 0.5

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:37 - ID#43185)
Silver rocket
The lever has been pulled indeedy:

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:40 - ID#43185)
Unexpected surge in durable goods. More bad news for the bond market.

The water is starting to get choppy. I wonder if we're getting close to the other side of the eye?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:42 - ID#284255)
Stolen from the web.
But think of this. Where I live there are many men of many resources and I know many of them.
Collectibles such as gold and silver will always wet there appetite.
Weather or not it is worth much to buy something substantial.
And it is this greed that we see in many men that will always make precious metals worth something.
Thinking about one person in particular.
I know that if you had a couple coins of silver or gold that you could probably trade
them for many of the tools that he has in his shop that would be quite useful.
It is his greed for these things that makes it worthwhile.
Where on the other hand if I didn't have an extra few dollars to spend on it I wouldn't even think about it.
But I know if and when TSHTF it will definitely be worthwhile for me
to have a little stash of precious metals handy. : )
After all the stuff he wold be willing to trade are worth far more than the coins are costing me.
But inherently you are totally right, but as long as there is greed and someone with a plenty of resources
things like this will be worth something.
As far as not seeing it, the company I am with hand delivers the silver or gold to your door each month.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:45 - ID#119358)
she's gonner blow fOx-man. welcome home.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:47 - ID#288186)
Gollum; The people become complacent when things looks sunny and
calm. when we get out of this "eye of the storm" it's gonna be
terwibble...terwibble....torm. ( of course, it will be coming from the
other direction to catch the most people off guard )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:50 - ID#43185)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:52 - ID#288186)
STUDIO.R; Thanks. Good to be back. Hope things are going good for ya
in that OKie dokie city south of me....

(Wed Oct 28 1998 08:54 - ID#43185)
Wednesday cont'd
Globex down, Bonds-long end down, short end up, dollar steady, PM's up with silver in raging bull mode, oil down.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:02 - ID#432130)
Story of a Tractor Trailer...
Going "way back when"... The very first time a Tractor Trailer got "stuck" under an overpass, everyone was trying to figure out how to get this truck free, which was very jammed under the overpass.

Well, "engineering experts" flocked in from everywhere in ( a vain ) effort to try and solve the problem of how to get the truck out of there. There were experts who suggested they should cut and jackhammer the overpass enough to free the truck. Then there were the experts who suggested they should get a torch and cut the top of the truck to free it from the overpass. This went on and on for most of the afternoon until a little boy walked by, looked at the truck and suggested they just "let the air out of the tires and just drive the truck out!" He was right and the many "experts" were extremely embarrased. The moral of the story being that the "experts" always look "up there" for the answers, while a simple person is capable of seeing the answer clearly from "down here".

So why did I tell you that ( TRUE ) story? It is because I have found that there are many very intelligent individuals here who have obvious experience and could be considered experts in what they are talking about. I respect all of them and I have learned a great deal here, and I have made investment profits based on what I have learned here. I am grateful to all of you, but I must point something out.

I am a simple dude who sees something very clearly. The world is in a mess. It MUST come crumbling down EVENTUALLY. But to those of you who would use "Graphs, Charts, Wave theories, etc, etc. Forget that stuff for a moment and consider the following: Dont underestimate the Fed, the G7 and the IMF. They WILL NOT allow world wide disaster to trash the entire monetary system any time soon. They will prevail at least until the Spring when the Y2k scare starts a run on banks and the market.

Precious Metals? We all agree the prices have been "fixed" ( controlled ) successfully, but there is NO reason to believe that influence is going to fail any time soon. Gold is testing its lows, and mark my words: So will silver! This has been going on and on for too many years, but it will continue for awhile yet. Any other point of view is either wishful thinking, or a mistaken conclusion based on complicated "wave theories", etc. ( I am really sorry if I am offending anyone ) .

I have been a "goldbug" for 20 years. I own a sizeable amount of both physical gold and silver; And some mining stocks and gold funds. Ive been hanging on as long as everyone else here at Kitco. I say this to show you I really am one of you and my comments are meant to help, not hurt or offend anyone. But I am trying to offer you a "simple" man's point of view regarding an issue I feel has been over-complicated.

Thank you for listening : )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:03 - ID#119358)
@fOx-man.........happy to report,,,,
All is swell. and my very best to all in dat' Great Wichicity north'O'me!!!! Koch is advertising on local cable ( corporate spots ) ...what in the world are the Boys fixin' to do? Hmmmmm. Probably very intrigued by Conoco's coup'de'cash IPO. salud to YA!!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:04 - ID#369352)
Gold and Silver are looking good in here!
Silver looks like it put in a double bottom and broke above its' 50 day moving average to break to the upside decisively...Gold is holding steady and challanging its' 50 day moving average as we speak...Go Gold!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:07 - ID#242325)
lease rates
Looks like the recent mini-spike in gold lease rates was a good signal of an impending rally in POG and the gold shares.

Farfel: My problem with Realistic is that he insists on beating a dead dog ( Puetz ) over and over again. Plus he doesn't make any forecasts of his own. Plus he never points out the errors of stock bulls and gold bears. Not exactly an unbiased "seeker of truth."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:16 - ID#369352)
Thanks for your observations, they bring a sense of reality to the sobering picture...but there is one point that needs to be added to your recent comment...that is...that sometimes the combined forces of the FED, IMF and the gov't can't change the direction of the title wave. When Brazil falls and Mexico falls, the banks will be in more than deep sh*t and all the kings men and all the kings horses will not be able to put humpty dumpty back together this point the game is over for the financial, it sounds as if you are prepared for the future with gold and silver...therefore sit back and watch it happen...good luck to you!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:17 - ID#119358)
@gwyz.........many, like me, have learned to expect the unexpected (and not go toooo....
...overboard ) . I think inflation will be allowed, er,, experienced. I thoroughly believe oil will soon be "withheld" from the markets... this could easily get out of control, since the countries that "own" the oil are not the G7....further, they have been ransacked by G1. just MHO.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:17 - ID#284255)
Well put.

I guess that's why the PPT is the PPT.
No one else could do it better.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:20 - ID#251220)
Excellent point.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:22 - ID#219363)
What kind of bears are you guys. Has the economy been strong for so long, the bull run so far, that we can't find a bear in a gold forum ? The economy can slow, the markets can drop, and the FED/IMF can only do so much in the face of the world's troubles. I've talked with bulls who don't have as much faith.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:26 - ID#105135)
Charts , Wave Theory,....etc
Date: Wed Oct 28 1998 09:02
gwyz ( Story of a Tractor Trailer... ) ID#432130:........

GWYZ, with my charts I was in 100 cash on most of the
past downturn, got in at the recent bottom of the last
Gold runup. Porfolio is at an all time high. Charts now
show a collision of two long term trends, ( ie ) The long term
overhead Gold resistance, and the very long term bottom trend.
Once again I scaled up with Gold as the probability of going
lower, for an extended period of time is small.
I guess my point is that I agree with you that you have to
keep things simple and keep your eyes open. But I would be
BLIND without my charts. Good Luck with your invesments.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:26 - ID#432130)
Perhaps I made my statement too complicated. I agree it all has to crumble. I did say it would crumble, but I suggested that Government influence is very likely to hold it off until the Spring.

Thank you very much for your reply to my posting. ( Studio.R, Sharefin and JJ: Thank you too! )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:27 - ID#43185)
Keeping the lid on
As options expiry nears the market makers try to "keep the lid on" so that most options will expire worthless. They are good at what they do.

Their resources, however, are not unlimited and upon occasion they fail to hold the line.

These guys are not rank amatuers. They do not panic easily. They simply cover, perhaps even go long, fall back and estabish a new line. They are pros.

Watch the action today.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:28 - ID#432130)
...I have a statue of a Bear GLUED to the top of my computer monitor!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:30 - ID#432130)
...Your point is well taken. Thank you : )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:32 - ID#219363)
I take it all back, a bear on your monitor, that's beautiful man! *grin*

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:35 - ID#339274)
FWIW Gold's inability today to stay over dec295,will spark a
selloff together with the broadmarket.XAU 73 is pivot point.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:36 - ID#219363)
Down 1, 2, 3, to 6 percent all around. I love sharefin's swing charts.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:37 - ID#371229)
@gwyz, generally I very nuch agree with your assesment of the fed's mkt influence
Even Puetz's forecast would have been true by now if not for the fed. They held the line real close to a dow -20% and they will continue to do their thing. I think they will have to pull out all the stops this time at a dow 7600 in an orderly "Correction" but I don't much see that even until after elections. The POG manipulations are in-step or tandem deal with
Dow fixings. However this is the big difference as trader vic was saying
the fix is helpless against a single day 1000pt sell-off panic driven dive.
To the question how would one trade this? I simply put would not. Options are useless as no one knows the timing, and outright market positions would only get chewed in the chop. It is as has long been the
case an excellent time to buy buy buy physical gold with two fists and every rescource you have. ( I have no experience with gold stocks and so offer no opinion on their efficacy under these controlled mkt. conditions )

Bully Beef
(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:45 - ID#259282)
"Hi... I'm G..whiz and I'm an Au-aholic".
Hi Gwyz! remember those steps. Never look at gold, never touch it...walk by the jewelry store... give me the strength to change the things I can and and the knowledge to know when I can't ( damaged memory and too lazy to look it up. )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:48 - ID#432130)
Goodbye everyone...
...I have to go now. Thank you all for replying to my 9:02 posting. And I wish you all a very nice day : )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:48 - ID#43185)
I would like to thank you for posting your comparison chart at 5:28. It saved me some work.

Notice the little run up in Hecla at the end compared to the others? I have the feeling that that might be related to the options market and the coming expiry. Sort of moving Hecla into postion to expire the most options worthless. Apparently not so much so with the others. This makes me feel Hecla may not move as much as the others, initially at least.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 09:58 - ID#339274)
FWIW Target reached OEX 520,possibly a bounce.517 breaking down
524 going long.Snp 1060 reached 1054 ,1067.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:04 - ID#288466)

Back into PAASF at the open. Looks like a breakout of the recent Bollinger band squeeze.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:07 - ID#286230)
Open to Interpretation
The Financial Post

Barrick Gold Corp. officers and directors sold shares worth more than $10-million in

Howard Beck, director, sold 202,100 shares for $30.85 to $32 each to hold 264,144 shares;
Vincent Borg, director, exercised 14,000 options for $14.25 each and sold the same amount of
shares for $28.15 to $32.50 each to hold 112,000 shares; Alan Hill, director, exercised 50,000
options for $14.25 each and sold the same amount of shares for $29.70 and $29.75 each to hold
5,000 shares and Joseph Rotman, officer, sold 95,000 shares for an undisclosed amount to hold
155,000 shares, the Ontario Securities Commission insider trading bulletin shows.

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:09 - ID#24135)
the Case of the purloined profits
it's like this Watson ..
Placer say they have sales of $336 million . I assume production of 725,000
for the quarter. That makes for revenue/oz of 336/0.725 = $463/oz !!!!!
top flight hedging.. Watson
they must have made a lot of money .. now lets see... $33 mill profit on the
same old 725,000 oz. That's a profit per oz of 33/0.725 = $46/oz ..

now using the elementary principle that revenue - cost = profit
... then cost/oz must equal 463 - 46 or $417/oz and placer say they have
cash costs of $180/oz or whatever .. doesnt add up dear boy.. I think they
must have a big hole in the accounting department and I dare say the
missing funds go straight to Moriarty.. truly a case for shear luck Holmes
.. pass the 7 per solution please Watson.. and my violin..

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:13 - ID#339274)
FWIW Indicators giving me a buy signal and target 530.stop 519

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:25 - ID#258427)
SA mining shares moving ahead....
Drooy up 8%+...Rangy up 4%...just wait til gold really takes off and watch these guys....

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:25 - ID#93127)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 175.373 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 293.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 175.987 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Oct 1998 ) : 293.000 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0191 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0600 US Dollars

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW After reading annual report,very impressed.With gold
at 350 , 20 dollar shares easy.

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:25 - ID#24135)
rumour .. Kervorkian(??)
to take over as CEO of Homestake ..

To all ..
just saw Homestake turned in another stellar quarter..
a loss of $0.86/share .. I'll will never understand
what keeps this stock alive .. wont someone put it
out of its misery ?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:28 - ID#390249)
Middle Eastern AU Longs and EMU AU valuations
The attached article is interesting for its comments on Middle Eastern Longs ( maybe they brought the comex down yesterday ) and EMU gold valuations.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:34 - ID#333126)
stock overhang in HK

the analysts using 'overhang' for something other than gold -- not seen in quite a while now... hehe

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:36 - ID#24135)
Metallica Presciosa da Roma says ..
analyst pasquale fazool reporting

datsa platinum folks .. she only know how to go downa..
ah hatah da platinum .. and my dog lUIGI he barka da
platinum .. dis platinum she breaka my heart .. ah
loosa money dis crumbum platinum metal.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:43 - ID#365216)
Certified Mint, INC.??
Has anyone had experience with Certified Mint, Inc., out of Pheonix,
Arizona with regards to buying precious metals coins such as
American Eagles? I have heard they have a good rep for low prices
and confidentiality.


John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:47 - ID#24135)
People ARE funny ...
drooy ..
I now have drooy's earnings for the quarter.

compare .. format share, eps, price in rands.

wes-areas, 0.81,22
anglogold, 5.0,295
dries, 0.68,30
harmony, 1.14,29.5

As you can see .. drooy is the WORST of the bunch
but is performing best. amazing hey ??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:51 - ID#389387)
Ah yes, the old truck ( global economy ) stuck under the overpass ( ever expanding fiat currencies ) urban legend. While the little boy spoke his wisdom ( a much younger Al Greenspan ) , about lowering the height of the trailer ( "irrational exhuberance" ) , some of the diesel fuel ignited ( hedge funds ) causing a small fire ( asian financial crisis ) . The trailer full of cargo ( worlds' wealth of equity, bonds, mortgage backed securities, PM's and all manner of debt ) began to smolder. The fire department ( IMF ) began to spray the load with water ( more debt ) , but was unaware that the cargo was a Class C fire ( deflation implosion ) . As all the cargo burned a pool of molten metal ( PM ) began to form in the hot stinky asphalt crater in the center of the road. This is the real lesson, paper burns, gold survives by changing shape.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:55 - ID#43185)
@John Disney
That doesn't seem strange. If some company is just barely getting by, say making $1 an ounce and some other company is doing great making say $10 an ounce, and it is percieved the price is going to go up $1 an ounce the the poor one is going to see a 100% increase in profits whereas the good one is only going to see 10%.

If you think prices are going up, always go for the worst dog. If you think they are going down go for the bluest of the blue chips.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 10:57 - ID#365216)
Why Greenscam really cut interest rates!!
12 major financial institutions suffering huge losses. Many are on
the brink of failure!

Thats why the Fed cut rates so suddenly ... giving you
one last chance to sell your stocks. Grab it while you

Twelve banks and hedge funds that placed multi-billion dollar bets -- just like
Long-Term Capital Management -- have suffered huge losses, with many on the brink
of failure.

Although this has come to our attention from a reliable source, its too soon to name
names. But we can confirm that three of these major players are in the US, including
possibly Bankers Trust ... two are in Europe ... and at least six are in Japan, such as
Sumitomo Bank, Sakura, Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, and Mitsui Trust & Bank.

This is the real reason Mr. Greenspan cut rates so suddenly last week. He knew all
about these falling giants, and he wanted to give them a chance to dump their losing
positions into a rising market. So he decided to give the stock and bond markets a
shot in the arm.

As a private investor, you have two choices: You can either follow the crowd and buy
up the garbage these institutions are now unloading. Or you can use this market rally
as your own opportunity to sell.

When Fed Chairman Greenspan cut rates last week, he gave you a generous gift -- an
opportunity to sell your stocks ( or go short ) at much better prices.

You wont get another chance like this one for a long time. Dont let it pass you by.
Grab it while you can. If you do, history is on your side:

Back in the 1930s, the Fed lowered interest rates many times. But it was no use. The
Dow lost nearly 90% of its value!

Throughout the 1990s, in Japan, the government dropped interest rates repeatedly. But
it didnt help them either. The Japanese market has continued to sink, giving up close
to 70% of its value in the Nikkei index, driving the market to the lowest level in 12
years, with still deeper declines on the horizon.

All around the world and throughout history, the pattern is the same: In a
deflation-driven bear market like we have today, interest rate cuts have little or no
lasting impact.

They can give stock markets a temporary shot in the arm, and the markets do enjoy
sharp rallies. But the stimulus soon wears off. And the market rallies end just as
abruptly as they began.

What weve seen in the last few days fits perfectly into this pattern. In fact ...

The Feds rate cuts imply desperation -- not control!

After the default of Russia and the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management,
lenders around the world recoiled in horror. Private lending to all but the most favored
credit risks dried up. Mortgage-backed bonds, loan-backed bonds, junk bonds and
foreign bonds collapsed.

Indeed, virtually the ONLY markets that remained viable were those for Treasury
securities and scattered highest-quality corporate bonds.

This is the other reason Mr. Greenspan has stepped in so aggressively. But therein
also lies the reason why the Feds latest moves will fail: The Federal Reserve does not
control the pricing or interest rates on any of the credit markets that are collapsing.

The Fed cannot control the rates on commercial loans, mortgages, mortgage-backed
bonds, asset-backed bonds -- let alone junk bonds, foreign bonds and high-leverage
derivatives. Yet, these are precisely the markets that have been hammered the most in
recent weeks.

For evidence, look at Chart 1 and Chart 2.

The Fed cannot stop the credit crunch with low interest rates because it not caused by
high interest rates.

The credit crunch sweeping the globe is not caused by high interest rates either; its
caused by ( a ) deflation ... ( b ) the failure or impending failure of huge financial
institutions ... and ( c ) by the widespread fear that these inevitably engender.

But the deflation is not going away. It is spreading from country to country, from
commodity to commodity.

And all this is happening before a decline in the US economy! Once the giant
American economy sinks into recession -- or worse -- thats when youre going to see
the greatest deflation of all.

The financial failures arent going away either. In fact ..

This Is Just The First Phase Of The Global Financial Panic

The global panic has already infected too many countries, caused too many losses
and too much fundamental damage to be turned around so easily.

Instead, it is going to strike in one wave after another -- Latin America, Europe, the US
economy, and finally, giant US financial institutions.

Between each wave of panic, there are bound to be interludes of calm -- even euphoria
-- as you are witnessing on Wall Street today. Those are your windows of opportunity
to sell -- or sell short.

How long will the crisis last? I figure that between the panic declines and the
intermediate rallies, the crisis will continue for three years, in the following three

Phase 1
Stock Market Collapse

The global financial panic strikes the US. The Federal Reserve tries desperately to
protect US markets and is even able to bring about a sharp rally in the stock market.
But the Fed fails to rally the markets that count the most -- the credit markets, where
liquidity has virtually disappeared.

Regardless of the Feds efforts, corporate earnings get hit hard, especially at large
US-based multinationals reliant on overseas business. The Dow loses over 50% of its
value, while lesser stocks lose even more. Financial institutions heavily exposed to
derivatives fail. But most banks and insurers, still flush with capital, survive.

Important: This phase is not in the future -- it has already begun!

Phase 2
Recession ... and then Depression

The US economy goes into a tailspin, similar in many respects to the declines already
being experienced overseas. At US corporations, declining profits give way to outright
losses. Unemployment soars. The stock market continues to fall.

This phase is already well under way overseas. But in the United States, its just
beginning. By mid-1999, if not sooner, a recession will be officially recognized. By the
year 2000, we should be in a full-fledged depression.

Phase 3
Final Panic

The first financial failures we witnessed during Phase 2 become a tidal wave of failures
in this phase. The economic decline depletes the capital of large blue chips, banks
and insurers. And Y2K problems aggravate an already-deepening worldwide
depression. Thousands of domestic banks, S&Ls, credit unions and insurers go

By the year 2001, the world economy grinds to a near halt. Financial markets are
driven down so low that there is even talk of a global shutdown.

But finally, just when the fear is at its peak, we will see the beginning of ...

Phase 4

In the rubble of what were once the most vibrant economies of the world -- the Asian
tigers and the American miracle -- investors with liquid cash pick up the greatest
bargains of the century -- in bonds, stocks and other assets.

As each market and area touches bottom at different times over the course of this
phase, you can count on two years of extremely productive bargain hunting.

Phase 1 is clearly under way, and we are in the midst of a very temporary reprise. So
my first recommendation is ...

Take Full Advantage Of This Rally To ...

Sell out any blue-chip stocks that you still have in your portfolio. Dont be fooled
by the fact that the Dow and the S&P 500 did not get hit as hard recently as
the average stocks. They are among the most vulnerable to a global economic
depression. They are among the most leveraged with debt.

Sell out any small cap stocks that you may own. Many of these were truly
clobbered. They reached their peak in April and were falling throughout the
spring. Then, while the blue chips got hit in the summer, these small caps fell
even further -- losing 50%, 60%, even 80% of their peak value.

Some were hit so hard and were worth so little, it wasnt even worth the
commissions to sell out. But now, thanks to the Fed, many of the small stocks
have enjoyed a nice bounce.

Dont let anyone convince you this is the great turnaround. Its way too soon for that.
Instead, if your stocks are among those enjoying a bounce, grab it. Clear out.

Recommendation #2
Reduce Your Risk In Your 401 ( k )

Sell any stock mutual funds that you may be holding in your 401 ( k ) or similar
retirement program.

Ideally, you should park the proceeds in a Treasury-only money fund. But I recognize
that most plans dont give you that choice. So use the least volatile funds available.
That would be any money market fund ... and if thats not available, the most stable
income fund.

How can you measure a funds stability? The easiest way is on the Internet. Go to Click on Value Line Profile ... enter
the funds symbol and press go. The site will then give you two charts.

At the bottom of the first chart, you can see how well the fund did in the two most
recent bear markets -- May to October of 1990 ... and August to November of 1987.
These two bear markets are especially good tests for funds that invest in stocks.

Scroll down further and you will see the second chart, which gives you the annual
performance of the fund year by year, from 1990 through 1997. Check especially 1994,
the worst year ever for bond funds. If the fund fell 10% or less in 1994, it is actually
among the more stable funds.

If you do not have access to the Internet, ask someone who does. Believe me, its
worth the trouble; otherwise you may wind up jumping from the frying pan into the fire.

Recommendation #3
Hold Your Gold Shares

Throughout the crisis, the gold market has been edging higher. But we remain
concerned about this market.

The rise seems to lack enthusiasm and momentum. Given the power of the global
financial panic, gold should have jumped by leaps and bounds. It didnt, and we must
face that reality.

We raised the stop-loss levels substantially in our last issue to protect the recent
gains from the lows. Keep them in place as follows:

Agnico Eagle ( AEM - NYSE ) : Protective stop at $2 3/4; Barrick Gold ( ABX - NYSE ) :
$15 3/4; Bema Gold ( BGO - AMEX ) : hold; no stop is needed; Glamis Gold ( GLG -
NYSE ) : $1 1/2; Newmont Mining ( NEM - NYSE ) : $17; Anglo American ( ANGLY -
NASDAQ ) : $21; Avgold ( AVGLY - OTC ) : $3; Durban Deep ( DROOY - NASDAQ ) : $1

For your existing silver positions, keep your protective sell stops at $3 1/2 for Coeur
DAlene ( CDE - NYSE ) and $5 1/8 for Pan American Silver ( PAASF - NASDAQ ) .

Recommendation #4
Get Out Of Most Bonds!

Ive been telling subscribers to stay away from any non-Treasury bonds, especially
junk bonds and foreign bonds. Sure enough, over the last few months, even while
Treasury bonds were rallying, most other bonds have been clobbered. But right now,
like the stock market, many bonds are enjoying a temporary bounce. Take advantage
of any rally to ...

Sell any junk bonds or high yield funds that you may be holding. These have
been among the first victims of the credit crunch here in the US. Use this lull in
the crisis to minimize your losses and get to safety.

Sell any foreign bond funds you may own. Foreign bonds, especially in
emerging markets, have been a disaster areas. The rallies here are minimal.
But theyre better than nothing. This is your chance to salvage something from
any foreign bond funds you may own. Sell.

Sell your mortgage-backed bonds. These have been popular among many
investors because they offered a better yield than equivalent Treasuries and
seemed to be almost as safe.

From the outset, we have told subscribers to stay away because these bonds harbor
risks that are typically not disclosed. As part of the spreading credit crunch, many of
these bonds are also getting hit.

But its just the beginning. The crisis may soon spread to government-guaranteed and
sponsored mortgage bonds as well -- Ginnie Maes and Fannie Maes, for example.

So clear out now. And if you own these bonds through a mutual fund, call the toll-free
number and tell them to sell now.

Recommendation #5
Hold Your Treasury Notes

In Safe Money, I recommended you buy 5-year Treasury notes, which have performed
spectacularly. In fact, those particular Treasury notes have enjoyed one of the most
dramatic appreciations in the entire Treasury market. See Chart 3.

Recommendation #6
Start Nibbling At Treasury Bonds

Its obvious that the Treasury notes have been one of the unexpected gems in the Safe
Money Conservative Portfolio.

But with 20-20 hindsight, its also obvious that I erred in not recommending Treasury

The primary reason for my caution: The danger of large sales by Japanese and other
foreign investors, which remains a serious concern.

Right now, however, the selling by Japanese investors ( which has already begun ) has
been superseded -- even overwhelmed -- by the massive, global flight to quality. When
panic strikes -- in Asia, Europe, Latin America or the US -- almost every investment in
the world gets dumped ... and a big chunk of the proceeds get funneled into Treasury

As the global crisis deepens, this trend is bound to continue: We will see more global
panic, more flight to quality, and more buying of Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, deflation
-- not inflation -- is the dominant force worldwide. So despite lingering dangers, right
now I think its safe to nibble at the long-term Treasury bond market -- with caution.

Specifically, move 5% of your portfolio from Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury

For example, you can buy the 6 5/8% US Treasury bond maturing 2/15/27. Or you can
use a Treasury bond fund, such as Vanguard Fixed Income US Treasury
( 800-662-7447 ) .

Recognize, however, that Treasury bonds and Treasury bond funds are not risk free.
( More details on this shift in the November issue of Safe Money. )

Recommendation #7
For Speculators: Hold All Shorts

I have recommended several alternate vehicles for shorting the market:

LEAPS. You should be holding the December 1999 S&P 500 105 Reduced Value
LEAP put option ( LSX XG on the CBOE ) . If you dont, this is a great time to jump on
board. The price is back down to a more reasonable level. But it wont stay there for

Shorts: Japan and German WEBs. If youre short, hold. If not, this is a good time to
add. However, some subscribers have encountered difficulties at some brokers in
acquiring the shares for short sale.

If so, thats OK. The other vehicles recommended here will give you a more than
adequate stake in the next market decline.

Also, if youre short Telebras ( TBH - NYSE ) , continue to hold, keeping your protective
stop loss for your entire position at $85.

Rydex Ursa Fund ( RYURX; 800-820-0888 ) and Comstock Partners Capital Value
( DRCVX; 800-332-8910 ) . These funds will profit from a decline in the market. So when
the market rises, you can expect the funds value to go down. If you own one or both,
stick with them.

If not, nows the time to jump in. Comstock has a disadvantage in that it is a load fund.
But it has the advantage of providing a tax-loss carry-forward to help protect you
against taxes on any profits you make.

Plus, for investors who want to me more aggressive, heres another good bear fund:
ProFunds UltraBear Fund ( URPSX -- 888-776-3637 )

This is a new one for Safe Money. The company was started by a couple of
ex-employees of Rydex who decided to copy-cat the entire concept and create funds
that are virtually Rydex clones.

Right now, their funds are much smaller than Rydex. Plus, with their UltraBear Fund,
they made one interesting change:

Instead of going up 1% for ever 1% decline in the S&P, UltraBear is designed to go up
2% -- giving you twice the leverage.

This is a double-edged sword, though. When the market rises, you will also lose
money twice as fast. So invest in moderation.

UltraBears minimum is $15,000. But you can get started with $5,000 if you go through
your broker.

Remember: These are high leverage investments strictly for your risk capital. All your
keep-safe funds should be placed in the more conservative vehicles.

Japanese Banking Bail-Out Doomed To Fail

The Japanese government is planning to throw a whopping half trillion dollars at their
banking crisis, in the hope that some of it will stick.

This may relieve some of the immediate pressure on Japanese banks. But the plan is
doomed from the outset due to multiple, insurmountable obstacles ...

First, the Japanese public is revolted by the government bail-out of fat-cat
bankers. Their confidence in the banking system has NOT been restored; and
any confidence they still had in the government itself has been shattered.

Second, the fundamental cause of the banking crisis in Japan was too much
government involvement. So now, theyre going to provide still more government
involvement?! This wont solve the problem. It will only make it worse.

Third, even the massive $500 billion is too little, too late for the Japanese
banking system. Before the Japanese markets latest nose-dive, Japanese
banks had at least $1.2 trillion in bad loans on their books. Now, there are
bound to be many more. With Japans export markets ( including the US )
sinking, the $500 billion in bail-out money will disappear quickly.

Fourth, $500 billion is too much, too soon to be diverted from an already-shaky
fiscal system in Japan. Remember: The Japanese economy is contracting.
Consumer spending has shriveled to a fraction of its former self. So any money
diverted from their economy -- and thrown into the black hole of the banking
system -- will merely weaken the economy that much further.

Bottom line: Dont be surprised if you see Japan tumble into an even deeper abyss.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:05 - ID#339274)
another great day
OEX making a fast come back.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:14 - ID#288466)

Can you provide the source of the article in your post?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:18 - ID#43185)
Yesterday, they held the line around siz8 4.985, then last night they were forced to fall back. Now they have regrouped and are holding the line around 5.04, and action continues....

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:20 - ID#389387)
@General - I am surprised at your depth and breadth analysis
Original thoughts or cut and paste?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:20 - ID#284255)
Here's the full set since you like them so much.
I've just put a link to this set just below the other link.
But I only update them spasmodically.

I've just made a new chart which is the "Differential" between,
The NYSE swing and the M/A swing.
This plots the distance between the blue and red lines on the swing chart.

When it is at a zero reading then the two swing lines are crossing over.
It is now heading for this.

It needs some study, but by my line of reading the swing is not a leading indicator. This one is and between the two of them they work well.
Between when the Differential tops out and the swing crosses over is the time to get short/long.
This allows you to purchase your position before the premiums get to high.

All the sets of charts are pointing to turbulence just ahead.
The new highs/new lows charts are showing an unusual formation.
Normally these portray very clear "Pings" of a singular nature.
This time around we have had two oscillations in a row and it now looks like it's entering the third one.

Judging from the extreme reading of the swing I'd be looking at getting real short soon.

But then this is only my opinion and that's all it's worth.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:21 - ID#369352)
General, are you Martin Weiss? If you are, I salute you!! I have taken your news letter and my wife and I are loyal followers of you and your dad....If you are not Martin Weiss, the article that you just published on this network is copywrite material, word for word with his last issue...and as I see this as of tremendous advantage to the readers here, it is not fair to the author of this least give credit to the author and where people can subscribe to this newsletter...We believe that it is one of the best on the market!....let us know, please.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:21 - ID#25295)
big buyers yesterday are BIG sellers today???

Strad Master
(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:25 - ID#250297)
GENERAL: Remember my posting a few weeks ago about Merill Lynch being leveraged roughtly 97 to 1? Are you pondering what I'm pondering?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:26 - ID#254159)
ABX Pillar Dies
Post says former president dies

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 375,645,771 Oct 27 close $32.20
Wed 28 Oct 98 In the News
The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Bob Smith, the
former president of Barrick Gold and a pillar of the Canadian mining
industry, died on Tuesday in Toronto of adult respiratory distress
syndrome. He was 66. Reporter Keith Damsell says that Mr. Smith was the
alter ego of Peter Munk, Barrick's dashing chairman and chief executive,
preferring a hard hat and pick-axe to a three-piece suit. He was known as a
miner's miner, a man who held the respect of Barrick employees at mines
around the world because he was one of them. Mr. Munk says that Mr. Smith's
death came as a great shock to him. Mr. Munk says that Mr. Smith was closer
to him than anyone else he ever worked with. Mr. Smith's greatest
achievement was the $1-billion ( U.S. ) development of Barrick's Goldstrike
project in Nevada. The spectacular ore body established Barrick as a
world-class gold producer.
( c ) Copyright 1998 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:27 - ID#254159)
ABX Pillar Dies
Post says former president dies

Barrick Gold Corp ABX

Shares issued 375,645,771 Oct 27 close $32.20

Wed 28 Oct 98 In the News

The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Bob Smith, the

former president of Barrick Gold and a pillar of the Canadian mining

industry, died on Tuesday in Toronto of adult respiratory distress

syndrome. He was 66. Reporter Keith Damsell says that Mr. Smith was the

alter ego of Peter Munk, Barrick's dashing chairman and chief executive,

preferring a hard hat and pick-axe to a three-piece suit. He was known as a

miner's miner, a man who held the respect of Barrick employees at mines

around the world because he was one of them. Mr. Munk says that Mr. Smith's

death came as a great shock to him. Mr. Munk says that Mr. Smith was closer

to him than anyone else he ever worked with. Mr. Smith's greatest

achievement was the $1-billion ( U.S. ) development of Barrick's Goldstrike

project in Nevada. The spectacular ore body established Barrick as a

world-class gold producer.

( c ) Copyright 1998 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:29 - ID#284255)
The links down the bottom right hand corner.

Also I've put in the new url for the latest gold news.
I'm not sure how much gold news this search engine will pick up but I'll check it out for a few days.
I doubt it will be as good as the bloodhounds@KITCO

The latest news search works real well though.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:30 - ID#365216)
You caught me....excerpt from Martin Weiss' SAFE MONEY REPORT
I thought this issue was so important that I did cut and paste
it from the Safe Money Report website. To subscribe at $99 a year
approximately for new subscribers, call ( 561 ) 627-3300.

Since no one has heard or dealt with Certified Mint, how
about Blanchard and Company? They are my second choice.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:32 - ID#339274)
FWIW raise stop 524

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:36 - ID#284255)
RTC story with a bit of hype???
You've heard, no doubt, that any chain is only as strong as its
weakest link. Nothing brings this to bear in a more dramatic way than
Y2K, where our entire society is seen as a web of interdependencies
and specialists. And every once in a while, you learn about a weak
link that is so widespread, so universal and yet so invisible - that
it shocks you.

Suppose, for example, that I told you there was a particular "weak
link" in the chain of society that was used ( and relied upon ) by all
the following:

Over 135 public communications companies worldwide
The majority of U.S. roaming cellular phone services
The 3 largest stock exchanges in the world
Over 40 securities and commodities exchanges worldwide
100 mutual funds
24 of the 25 largest banks in the United States
Over 500 financial institutions
Over 50% of the world's public e-mail service providers
75 of the world's 100 largest electronic funds transfer networks
7 of the 10 largest securities brokers
80% of the world's ATM transactions
Processes that handle 70% of the world's money
30 of the world's largest communications companies
18 of the 25 largest banks in Europe
90% of the world's stock exchange transactions

And then suppose I told you that this common, universal weak link has
been tested, analyzed, and PROVEN to be non-Y2K compliant.

Would that open your eyes even more?

In fact, this weak link actually exists, and it has not only been
proven to be true, it has been publicly posted by the company that
manufactures the equipment. We post the link below so you can check it
out for yourself.

We're talking about Tandem-brand computer servers. Who is Tandem?
From their web site: "Tandem, a division of Compaq, provides software,
hardware, solutions, and services to support business-critical
electronic commerce, decision support, and high-volume transaction
processing for businesses in the telecommunications and finance

Tandem makes high-end servers that are extremely good at handling
high-volume transaction loads - which explains why they're used by the
stock exchanges. And yes, Tandem servers are used by all the companies
and services mentioned in the list above: they're everywhere. Chances
are, you don't go through a single day without something you initiate
being processed over a Tandem server ( such as an e-mail or an ATM
transaction ) .

According to Tandem's web site, their computers suffer from a problem
with the Real Time Clock. The Real Time Clock ( RTC ) is basically a
hardware-implemented timekeeping mechanism that provides date and time
information to the operating system and application software. The RTC
on most PCs, in fact, is not really Year 200 compliant. Although
they're not going to "crash," they were designed with a two-digit year,
meaning that while they perform exactly as programmed, their results
will still be misleading. Unless the software actively interprets the
two-digit year field correctly, it could cause all the Y2K problems
you're probably already familiar with: bad data, abnormal software
behavior, and so on.

Again: the RTC is not going to malfunction, it's going to roll over
to "00" because it's a two-digit date field. This is precisely the
same problem faced by the GPS system where the week field will roll
over to all-zeroes on August 22, 1999.

As simple as it sounds, this is a huge problem. It means the hardware
will not be reporting the correct date, and it's up to the software
( and the operating system ) to handle the interpretation.

Tandem's web site describes the situation as follows:
"The year 2000 is a concern for many computer companies because of
the limitations of their systems' real-time clocks ( RTCs ) . The RTCs in
Tandem systems keep the last two digits of the year ( referred to as
the century clock ) . In the transition between the years 1999 and 2000,
the RTC year will change from 99 to 00. Tests have shown that when the
year 2000 occurs, the RTC year will change from 99 to 00. Software
products are responsible for distinguishing the RTC year ( which will
be 00 in 2000 ) as the year 2000, not as the year 1900."

Link at:

In other words, the *software* is responsible for guessing the
correct date. And 90% of the world's stock exchange transactions, 80%
of the world's ATM transactions, and 70% of the world's money
transactions are all riding on it.

What if the software doesn't correctly distinguish the RTC year?
Obviously, all those transactions that run our world are going to be
in danger of either failing outright or being so messed up with
incorrect date stamps that it would take years to sort out the mess.

This is precisely one of the "weak links" that gives the Y2K scare
legitimate credibility. The fact that these clocks will roll over to
"00" is undeniable. The fact that such an enormous number of
transactions in the world rely on computer systems that rely on these
clocks is also indisputable. The only "unknown" area is whether or not
the operating systems and software applications will correctly
distinguish the year when they are given two zeroes instead of one "2"
and three zeroes.

Keep in mind, too, that the RTC is a problem affecting PCs and
servers - a category of computers that has been widely regarded as
posing only minor obstacles to Y2K in general. The compliance problems
with mainframes are much larger.

Some computer experts aggressively argue that the RTC poses no risk
whatsoever. Others swear the RTC will cause big problems. The best
answer is that there is no consensus among computer experts and the
likely outcome is entirely unpredictable. Thus, the fate of all the
transactions, companies, and services in the list above is put in the
"questionable" category. There are certainly no guarantees they will
work, and the statement by Tandem functions as more of a disclaimer
than a technical solution to the problem. Tandem effectively says,
"Yes, the clock will roll over to 00. That's not our problem, it's

No computer expert, no matter long they've been in the field, can
credibly claim they know for sure the RTC will be ( or won't be ) a
problem when the clocks roll over to "00." There are simply too many
variables, too many unknowns. And we already know that entire
industries are capable of accidentally overlooking a serious problem
-- that's what got us into this Y2K mess in the first place!

This means we are heading into 2000 with a big question mark, and
that is precisely the point Y2KNEWSWIRE attempts to make, day after
day. When you head into the unknown, if you are a wise person, you
prepare. When you aren't sure whether or not a car is going to slam
into your car on the road today, you wear a seatbelt. When you don't
know whether your house might catch fire someday, you buy fire
insurance. Y2K preparedness is about buying food insurance ( getting
extra food ) and water insurance ( stocking a little extra water ) . It's
about cash insurance and electricity insurance. In fact, it's probably
best called "civilization insurance," because by taking reasonable,
prudent precautions against the potential negative effects of Y2K, you
are reducing your risk against the disruptions of civilization itself.

Amazingly, while almost everyone buys auto insurance, life insurance,
and home insurance, the idea of buying food insurance ( stocking some
extra food ) is still being called "radical" by a segment of the
Y2K-naysayer population. These people fail to see the point: risk
reduction. Making it through life is often about reducing your risks,
and during Y2K, the best way reduce your risk is to get physically,
financially, emotionally and spiritually prepared.

That's not radical, it's common sense.

Now, a change of topic: if you hear someone scream, "We lost the
source code!" does it mean anything to you? Part of the reason so many
people are worried about Y2K repairs is because many companies and
government agencies needing Y2K repairs have actually lost the source
code for mission-critical software routines. What does this mean,

When people write software, they normally give the computer
instructions that resemble English in some sense. For example, FORTRAN,
BASIC, PASCAL and COBOL instructions mimic a grammatical structure
( called "syntax" ) that makes it easy for people to follow what's going
on in the code. This not only makes it easier for a single programmer
to read his own code, it also makes it easier for other programmers to
come in and read the code at a later date.

This English-like programming code is called "source code." But
computers don't actually "run" this directly. In order for a computer
to execute the instructions, the language must be translated ( called
"compiling" ) into a language the computer understands: machine code.
This is usually represented by a grid of hexadecimal values ( if you
examine machine code directly ) , and it's called "object code." ( Yes,
for the programmers out there, this is a slight simplification, we
know )

The important thing to understand here is that very few people on the
planet can actually make sense of object code directly. To most people,
it's pure gibberish. There are no readable, English-like instructions
in object code: just numbers, pure numbers. Even experienced
programmers don't normally attempt to read this stuff.

For this reason, conducting Y2K repairs normally requires you to have
the *source* code. That way, you can go into the English-like
programming language and actually tell what's going on ( that is, if
the original programmer did a good job ) . Then you make the
corrections and recompile the source code into brand new object code.

That's how it's done normally. But what's happening with Y2K repairs
today is that some companies and government agencies have LOST the
source code. It's gone. And programmers are left with the
near-impossible task of "de-compiling" the object code back into
source code, then making the repairs, then compiling it again.

This is no small feat. In fact, it's all but impossible in most
circumstances. Even if it's attempted, the effort of de-compiling the
code can multiply the person-hours required for the entire project by
a factor of five or ten, sometimes more. A project that might have
taken 10,000 hours if the source code had been available might now
require 100,000 hours.

Companies and government agencies have lost source code. Not in every
case, of course, but in enough cases to matter. And as you've seen
here, the only thing worse than losing your source code is losing your

Coincidentally, that's also another problem federal agencies are
having as programmers make a mad dash to the high-paying private
sector Y2K repair jobs.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:39 - ID#334219)
On PDG revenus and earnings

Placer produced 848,000 ounces of gold in the last quarter for gold revenus of US$277 millions. Other revenus were silver and copper. Do your maths again.

Also, I suggest that the best way to compare mining companies is on the basis of cash flow per ounce produced. As you have mentioned many times, production costs are not computed in the same way in SA.

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:39 - ID#24135)
say WHAT ???
Brother Gollum ..
lets take a look ..

prices and eps now for Drooy and randfontein ( taken
at random ) ..

so drooy next quarter adds say another 0.17 doubling profits
and randfonts adds 0.17 and increasing profits by about 20 %.

assumimg this happens then next quarter

drooy 0.34/share .. new price= 17 plus ??
randfontn 0.93/share .. new price = 15 plus ??

please brother gollum meditate upom what you said ..
It would contain a germ of truth IF drooy price had
been reflective of its prior rotten earnings .. BUT IT
WAS NOT .. it was already selling at a higher price than
randfontein while making a loss ..
I do not buy what you have said for one fraction of
one millisecond..
I believe truth is Drooy price is driven by the
popularity of its ADR .. Randfontn has ADR but doesnt
seem to trade much.. Harmony has traditional base
in Europe/UK. US brokers dont have background on it
and are somewhat numerically challanged anyway ..
they are only programmed to calculate commission rates
not mine earnings.. and they say things like "cash flow
is the name of the game ".
Dont let me spoil your fun .. please .. buy drooy ..
I love it .. follow the crowd.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:44 - ID#222186)
General: Blanchard & Co.
I have been doing business with Blanchard & Co. ( ask for Tommy ) for years. Although I have only been on the buy side, I have no complaints. All went smoothly. Visit

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:44 - ID#430221)
Re General's post of the latest Flash Alert from
Martin Weis' Safe Money Report. I assume General isn't Weis - appologies if he is. Anyone interested in this excellent newsletter can find out more at the Weis website That flash alert was accessible to subscribers only on the site several days ago, but just yesterday arrived in the mail, so presumably General didn't check the site - just got it in the mail or perhaps even just saw someone else's copyand didn't know to check the site - ( Weis alerts each subscriber by E Mail when there are new things to check out on their site ) . A really excellent newsletter and one of the ones I most respect. They've been a bit early sounding alarms in the past year, but so have most of us, and
anyway, better early than late or not at all.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:47 - ID#43185)
@John Disney
Perhaps so. The fact remains however, that the dogs do better faster than the blue chips when prices are going up. Not just in gold stocks, but in any kind of stocks.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:47 - ID#371229)
KAIROS site has posted its fifth
of Einstien's theory of relativity, and moving to "proof" of unity realities and the existence of time as past and future in a simultaneous continuum that is froma human perspective only experienced as a present. I still think the kairos moment is leading to the possibilities of time travel through OBE or meditative experience. The quantum mathematic speculation have already best been described by Bentov in his "Stalking the Wild Pendulum". What has this to do with Gold? Well what would happen to market is the future was foreseeable. Would everyone see the same future. Within clue 5 something is said of human experience being the inertia locked perception of our common past. If that is our perception would we no then project a future again "inertia locked" on the perceptions of our past, or could we realized as our roles as creators

of reality and effective a diffrent path. If so what might that be. Could we all go to different futures based on consciousness and what would leave earth realities to become. Clues begetting questions ad infinitum.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:48 - ID#31868)
This move in the metals is teeny tiny...when the metals move when the corpse that
is the financial markets bursts the REAL money of the world will sky rocket in relation to the toilet/fiat paper...which is the tool of the re-order and banking dirtbags of the Earth...

The more everything changes the more it stays the same...yup..uh huh...

Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:51 - ID#242214)
Palladium & Cold Fusion

This month's _Wired_ magazine has a unique and interesting article
on the current state of cold fusion, with detail about palladium
use. Check it out.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:55 - ID#147201)
ALL re bonds and finance
Euro flops, Brazil flops. Too much stuff depending on too much stuff. Anybody got any real details??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 11:59 - ID#266105)

Strad Master ( Hmmm... ) ID#250297:
GENERAL: Remember my posting a few weeks ago about Merill Lynch being leveraged roughtly 97 to 1? Are you pondering what I'm pondering?


A WSJ article last week stated that securities firms typically
operate with 15 to 20 times leverage, as a nature of the business.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:28 - ID#389387)
Cold Fusion = Modern Touchstone
Pons and Fleishmann = Millie Vanilli

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:30 - ID#237299)
RAN @ Kairos
Time travel with OBE? Nah...think computers son, why not move humans with OLE and hypertext, ( or would that be hyperperson ) ? Wait!, why not use HTML ( human type markup language ) ..the mind races.. ;- )

Aurator thinks it's an apple computer gig. I still say they're selling a book. Soon to be available at amazon dot con.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:31 - ID#194311)
the tolerant one
you're a goddamn jewel, man.

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:35 - ID#212323)
Jeeeeeeze, Tolerant1!
That maggot infested corpse analogy you've been painting lately is great for halloween, but it sure has a bad effect on my lunch plans.
I agree with your notion that when gold moves in price...ka-POW! Wouldn't you agree that that would NOT be the time to try to buy...who would want to sweat and fret over the likelihood of successfully delivery? There is no end to the paper creations out there. In stark contrast there is gold.
Just wait til the world wakes up from its stupor. Even The Beatles found it was impossible to move while under the spotlight. Low key and back door is the only way to "get there from here". Buy these days, my friends.

got Beatlemania?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:38 - ID#339274)
FWIW Strong buy signal given.I love it.
Harmony second in strength.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:42 - ID#284255)
What, me worry? Joseph Farah

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:44 - ID#24135)
Moriarty and the old "cash flow" gambit...
for CC ..
you wrote ..
"Placer produced 848,000 ounces of gold in the
last quarter for gold revenus of US$277 millions.
Other revenus were silver and copper. Do your
maths again."
Of course .. my dear CC.
taking ag and cu by-product revenues as
credits to cost gives us 277/.848 = $326
per oz for gold revenue.. profit per oz becomes
33/.848 = $39/oz ..

and costs become 326 - 39 = $287/oz versus
what was it .. $180 .. so Moriarty only
takes 107 $/oz .. I see we are zeroing
in on him watson.
Then you expand as follows ..

"Also, I suggest that the best way to compare
mining companies is on the basis of cash flow
per ounce produced."
I dont agree .. I want PROFITS .. what good
is cash flow if it has to be dedicated to
ongoing high levels of capex to keep company
You then say

"As you have mentioned many times, production
costs are not computed in the same way in SA. "
They are NOW computed the same way in South
Africa for reporting purposes .. the earnings
per share are after tax and depreciation ..

thus PDG earns 33 millions on 250 million
shares .. 33/250 = $0.132/share and 0.53
on an annual basis .. I dont know the share
price .. but say its 15 bucks .. that makes a
p/e of 30 .. the p/e for harmony is 29/ ( 4*1.14 )
= 6.35 ( same basis )
Moreover .. Mining journal shows total
resources for PDG of 68 mill oz ..
at 15 $ a share that makes a capitalization
of 15 * 250/68 = 55 $/oz for gold resources..
Harmony has resources of 100 mill oz
So say 65 mill shares * 5 /100 = less than
4 $/oz for resources.
Tell me all about cash flow...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:44 - ID#25295)
what do you think of NEM??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:48 - ID#284255)
What, me worry? Joseph Farah
I forgot to post Farah's last paragraph. ^o-o^
Here we are, just a little more than 14 months from perhaps the biggest predictable calamity in human history -- a disaster with ominous civil liberties implications, and the ACLU is nowhere in sight. The New York Times devotes more resources to covering so-called "hate crimes" than to researching what could be one of the biggest stories ever. We are on the brink of martial law and America still isn't certain whether it should dump a known felon, liar, power abuser and sociopath at the helm of the nation's executive branch, where he would become, on Jan. 1, 2000, a de facto dictator.

Beam me up!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:57 - ID#194311)
Makes you wonder doesn't it....
EMU observers say that the Euro Central Bank ( ECB ) now holds more gold of the member states than necessary so they will be "trading" some back to the member states at a new "monetary value".

Perhaps all this selling that has gone on is actually transfer of gold to the ECB by the member states, the buyer has never been clearly stated. All the derivative games surrounding these sales ( gold-carry, etc ) drives the price ever lower. Now just to keep the game going on a little longer the ECB will begin selling onto the market ( this time back to the member states ) and the member states get to revalue their gold without the meddling politicians they can balance their books to fit into EU regulations and everybodies happy.....or are they.

In the process they've managed to perpetrate perhaps the beginnings of the biggest deflationary collapse seen by the world's economy. As the US falls into recession Europe is dragged in too. Spice it up a lot with computing/banking problems and a negative mood shift from the open-borders free-wheeling global village ideals fo the nineties and we's got ourselves a real stew a brewing.

Moral of the story, f$*k with gold and she'll f%*k with you.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:59 - ID#258427)
Those claw marks you see are from the
XAU climbing back over the cliff-edge ... decided not to fall into the abyss today after down less than .96

Monkee Person
(Wed Oct 28 1998 12:59 - ID#350219)
@General, Goldilocks, trader_vic

Agree wholeheartedly about Weiss. The ONLY outfit that was on top of the situation when insurance companies began buckling-under back in the 80's. They called it, no one else.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:03 - ID#339274)
FWIW Like the projected 99 gold output 1.3 million ounces at
a projected cost of 225 .Those numbers ,with a capitalization
of 250 million,are heart warming.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:04 - ID#424394)
Squirrel your 02:34 on how to fulfill our dream of Gold money
Documents why all current Silver & Gold coin is insufficient to the cause. Unless one of your three solutions happens - I will never be able to buy groceries or pizza with Gold or Silver coin {unless the store owner is a Goldbug too AND can pay his suppliers with the stuff - a pretty rare combination}.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:06 - ID#284255)
This may set a few minds at rest.
Now, I'm not one to violate copyright. I'm the author of 42 books. But, there is something called fair use doctrine. Here is a discussion of fair use doctrine on the Cornell University Law School's page:

"Notwithstanding the provisions of sections 106 and 106A, the fair use of a copyrighted work, including such use by reproduction in copies or phonorecords or by any other means specified by that section, for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching ( including multiple copies for classroom use ) , scholarship, or research, is not an infringement of copyright.

"In determining whether the use made of a work in any particular case is a fair use the factors to be considered shall include -

" ( 1 ) the purpose and character of the use, including whether such use is of a commercial nature or is for nonprofit educational purposes;

" ( 2 ) the nature of the copyrighted work;

" ( 3 ) the amount and substantiality of the portion used in relation to the copyrighted work as a whole; and

" ( 4 ) the effect of the use upon the potential market for or value of the copyrighted work. The fact that a work is unpublished shall not itself bar a finding of fair use if such finding is made upon consideration of all the above factors."

Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:10 - ID#242214)
NTEOTWAWKI & Cold Fusion & Milli Vanilli & Media Dupes

Cold fusion is not a hoax.

Read the article in _Wired_. I, too, was a victim of our
media. Once again. I found out a few months ago that cold fusion
has been duplicated in dozens of experiments around the world.

At the very least, it could be an opportunity to make a killing on

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:10 - ID#43185)
Silver and Gold Prices

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:11 - ID#31868)
kiwi, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya my friend...Third in the House of ARAGORN...
Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...queasy eh...o' that I could eat ultra rare roast beef during an autopsy I forget to take others eating habits into consideration...sooooooooooooooooooooooo...

When the Golden Leeches eat the dead flesh from the body financial they will be so bloated they will not be able to move from the sheer weight of themselves...and the financial body will wither to a few mere ounces of its former lying...misleading...criminal fact the financial flesh remaining will look like Saran Wrap on bonz....................

Got stomach?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:12 - ID#410194)
The following comments about Gold are from "Hightower Report". ( morning analysis )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:12 - ID#410194)
"A Gold Fields Mineral survey comment suggested that miners will keep gold output steady in the coming 12 months through effective cost reduction efforts. The GFMS spokesman indicated that the world wide average cost of production in gold was approximately $212 in the April through June 1998 period which means those suspecting a rock solid bottom at $290 could be wrong. The service did suggest that investor demand is improving which might offset some of the 2% increased output for 1998. However, recent mining reports have shown mixed results with some production records and some moderate production curtailments. In the news this morning Newcrest reported a July to September net loss but suggested gold output was up while Rio Tinto in Zimbawe reported July through September gold output to be 7%. Therefore, gold remains in balance without uncertainty of supply, slightly improved demand and a lack of clear currency impact."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:15 - ID#350179)
Here we go again
Conductor? - is this a window seat?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:18 - ID#371229)
quote Lord Rees-Moog from 10/28/98
...."There are bound to be more casualities. The hedge funds have an aura of sophistication, but the principle is quite simple. The fund managers spot a small advantage, and leverage it up into a big one. Many funds have been prepared, and able, to leverage well-secured plays, in major currencies or major government bonds, as much as 20 times---LTCM went much higher than that. If you leverage a 3% turn by 20 times, that gives you a 60% return on your investment, and some funds have been showing 60% returns.

This October saw forced closures of Yen borrowing to buy U.S. bonds at losses of 20% or more. If that play was leveraged 20 times, these amount to 400% loss on the investment. No doubt this was only one among many hedge fund transactions, but other speculative positions will have had to be closed, perhaps prematurely, probably at a loss. The same losses will have fallen on the proprietary trading of the banks, and some banks certainly have lost their own dealing, apart from exposure in loans to hedge funds.

The world of hedge funds is not a transparent one, nor is the world of proprietary trading. It will therefore be some time before we know how big the losses are, or what positions will have to be closed. Inevitably there will be less, and dearer, credit for investors. Inevitably there will be uncertainty throughout the global system. This will deepen recession and postpone recovery. The politicians will get into the act. The hedge funds will be called to the dock, and there will probably be some very angry confessional hearings.

Ordinary investors will be discouraged too. Even in August there were net withdrawals from mutual funds, and there have been more in September and October. Pension funds will still have money to put into the market. They were unusually liquid at the end of July, and they will be useful support. But this has been a big speculative collapse, and there is more bad news to come."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:42 - ID#93127)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 175.373 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 293.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 175.119 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 293.150 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0191 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0600 US Dollars

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:46 - ID#319242)
One reason for the crash of 29 was the 10% margin carried by many investors of the time. When the prices dropped, there was much quick selling to cover, and many didn't make it. This had a direct effect upon the banks who couldn't get their loans back, and therefore large losses. Failure of these banks was a major factor in the snowballing depression.
Today the little investor is limited by law to 50% margin to prevent this from happening again, yet hedge funds can borrow massive ( billions ) amounts and leverage at 5%, thereby moving markets and getting caught in others moving markets. Bank officials who loan to these funds should be personally responsible, not the taxpayers thru the FED. If two funds caused such a turmoil, what will happen when the rest join in?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:48 - ID#93127)
SA gold treasuries feel impact of onerous new US accounting standard
October 27, 1998

The onerous requirements of a new accounting statement issued by US authorities are expected to impact heavily on South Africa's gold treasuries.

A booklet published by Ernst & Young entitled Gold Treasuries: Reporting and Accounting under US GAAP comprehensively addresses the accounting issues arising from gold price risk management activities, including the new standard and interim measures for gold treasuries to adopt.

"Derivative usage is still sensitive issue, especially in the corporate environment," Heeger says. "Accounting standard setters have attempted to address concerns over the quality of derivative accounting and disclosure in annual financial statements, but until recently their efforts have not been wholly effective. I am confident the new standard will succeed in this quest."

COMMENT: Isn't there something about 'barn doors' and horses? {:- ) )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:49 - ID#343171)
Corner Bay, Toronto 'bay'
doubled in 3 trading days, news soon on Mexican project drilling,
there is some life in the juniors!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:53 - ID#339274)
FWIW Sell signal generated,stop 525.XAU starting to look better

lefty kiwi
(Wed Oct 28 1998 13:53 - ID#32176)
cashflow article
Whatever Happened to Cashflow?

By Alan I Brown

It is a fact that historically speaking every investment bubble, whether it be
related to stocks or land or tulips, or kiwifruit for that matter, bursts.
And the
current bubble, the mother of all bubbles, which is the US stock market
will be
no different. Except this time this bubble has managed to encompass not just
stocks, but anything denominated in US dollars, including the US dollar
which as a currency has been too strong for too long. The effects of this
strong $ are only now beginning to be understood as is the damage it has
irrevocably caused. Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia will take years
to recover. Their ability to trade their way out of this situation is
basically non
existent. Japan is not buying, European consumption is starting to ease and
the US consumer is about as over consumed as you can get. The trade deficit
will see to that as will falling exports and lack of demand for US
products. Who
can afford to buy anything with a made in the USA label? Certainly not Asia,
or Russia or South. America. They simply can not afford it and they are too
dependent on US trade ( exporting to the US ) for their own survival. Indeed
who can these countries sell to.

The past several years have been notable in many ways certainly from an
economic point of view. I began commenting on the lack of fundamentals in
relation to the US back in February of 1997. Mr. Greenspan made his
irrational exuberance remarks in December of 1996. But this market kept
soaring anyway, not at all fazed by the fact that P/Es were at record levels (
exceeding those of 1929 ) , that the Asian crisis could cause a problem, that
ongoing sales receipts might diminish and that a credit crunch could appear.
No not at all.

What was interesting was the fact that several changes were going on in the
background that appeared to be unnoticed by the public at large and by
most commentators and critics of current economic events.

The rapid rise in mutual funds, especially in the US, should have caused
concern since at the end of the day, what is a mutual fund? It is an entity
that sells you on the concept that they can manage your money better than
you can and give you a greater return. I imagine that the growth in numbers
of these funds had Wall Street concerned for a while until they finally
out that regardless of where the money is if it is earmarked for stocks
that is
where it will end up. And stocks have to be bought through a broker so what
is the problem ? As good of a guarantee of stocks increasing in value as you
could get. The problem is that Mutual Funds have to make ongoing returns to
keep their clients ( should I say victims ) happy. And the more money that
came into the market, the higher prices went, the more income for
stockbrokers there was. They too jumped on the bandwagon and started their
own funds. Why not? And the public loved it. CNBC loved to refer to these
ongoing rallies and catered to the expectations of these fund holders and
praised them for being intelligent investors. But are they?

Other countries were different in the methodology but produced the same
net result. The terms investment advisors, investment consultants, financial
planners, etc. comes to mind. The proliferation of this profession over a
four year period makes one wonder what they were all doing prior to this
sudden influx of investment expertise. The end result to date has seen most
markets reach record highs ( try absolute record highs ) and then retrace
back from these highs as the events that started in Asia last July began to
take effect. First Thailand, then Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia. Then on to

It has been very interesting listening to many of these investment
professionals aided of course by the bullish tones of the US markets and the
seemingly correct argument for a new paradigm re business cycles which
has been touted frequently, attack anyone who pointed out that
fundamentals did not look good and that stock prices were not sustainable at
these levels. Rubbish! was the response. And if you were unfortunate enough
to be from a sector that was also getting rubbish and I am referring to the
precious metals mining sector , you were given a further rebuttal. Most mining
companies have seen many of their shareholders and potential investors
bail out as a result of listening to some professional advisor who has
them gold is a barbaric relic, gold is no longer necessary, precious metals
are dead, hi-tech stocks are the place to be etc., etc. Buy Yahoo, or Dell, or
Intel, etc., etc. Dont buy gold stocks. Bankers Trust announces a record loss
and their share price goes up ( ? )

Now one does not need the help of an investment advisor or mutual fund
manager to understand that the key to any business is its cashflow. Whether
its got it, will it increase/decrease and is it sustainable ? Thats what all
businesses, governments, organizations rely on. Cashflow. Cashflow.
Cashflow. That should be the reality behind investing. Thats why p/e ratios
are published and relied upon. ( They used to be ) . A stock price used to go up
because of increased earnings. Thats cashflow. Now for those of you who
have forgotten let me remind you what cashflow actually is. Cashflow
requires two parties, not one. The first is the seller and the second is
the buyer.
And the exchange between the two when a trade takes place results in
earnings for the seller and a reduction in disposable cash for the buyer. At
some stage the buyer has previously been a seller of something whether its
assets, goods or services and the same end result was achieved. Cash
changed hands. These are earnings.

When investment advisors forget this we have a problem. When their clients
complain about a low rate of return and want more the investment advisors
find it for them. And as long as its flavor of the month the real
questions, the
ones that should be asked, dont get asked. Like is this rate of return
sustainable? Or what is the risk here ? Boeing announced about nine months
ago that the Asian crisis would not affect earnings, then recently announced
they were cutting production in half by the year 2000. Why the about face?
Orders have dried up. Could they not see that nine months ago? I could. That
was obvious the day airlines stopped flying to Korea. The cashflow required to
support those purchases had dried up. Passenger revenue ( the airlines
cashflow ) had slowed down and growth ( increased revenue ) now was a thing
of the past.

Every industry is at the mercy of the same set of circumstances. No cashflow,
no growth.

High rates of return only last so long in any field. Eventually they get over
serviced and then somebody takes a hit, followed by another and another.
Banks are notorious at doing this. An area becomes hot and they all jump on
the bandwagon, encouraging buyers to pay ever increasing prices until
there are no more buyers left and the sellers have gone home because
everything finally got too expensive. A few defaults, some mortgagee sales
and now we have a recession.

Whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, or whatever the same path is always
followed until the bubble bursts. And that bubble is burst by decreasing
cashflow and the destruction of capital which really starts the reduction in
cashflow process.

What the investment advisors dont understand about gold mining
companies is that their cashflow ( whether its profitable or not ) is about as
guaranteed as you can get. Somebody, somewhere, will always buy gold.
Always. It has been that way for thousands of years. And when things turn to
custard people buy gold for that reason. Not because the are addicted to it.
Or because its the latest model, or its on this months hot number list, but
because they can sell it. They know that there will always be a buyer for
it. As
is. In any country, at anytime gold can always be bought and sold. And that
is cashflow.

I recently spoke with a friend of mine who has a successful career, is a very
good businesswoman and is very astute and she was telling me about her
conversation with some heavy duty fund managers who were complaining
about the fact that they did not know where to put there cash as the currency
fluctuations was causing them problems. ( read losses ) . Did none of their high
priced advisors mention to tell them to buy gold? Currency fluctuations are a
result of uncertainty between buyers and sellers. The value of currencies is
being called into question. Look at the rupiah, the Won, the ringgit, etc.

Instead of putting people in to high return investments ( and in someplace
there is still no shortage of capital looking for a higher return in
safe areas like commercial real estate- especially as interest rates drop to
low levels ) why arent the investment professionals looking at the risk of the
cashflow required to produce these returns drying up. Because that is going
to be the problem. That is what a recession is all about.

It is interesting to note here that the US gold mining companies have the
highest p/e rations of any mining companies any where in the world. Many
explanations have been given for this unusual occurrence but I believe that it
is because when it comes to a crunch these companies have a guaranteed
cashflow. The risk of there not being one is relatively low. As opposed to a
high tech company, or an aircraft manufacturer, or a entertainment company
( Disney ) . When cashflow that is dependent upon ongoing economic bliss is
in doubt people buy mining stocks.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:01 - ID#371229)
The Fed's role in the market?
"The fallacy that Alan Greenspan and the Feral Reserve can uniquely determine the capitalization of asset prices by manipulating the balance sheet of the central bank is less plausible today than it has ever been. If the Asian crises has shown anything it is that monetary authorities cannot conjure capital from the clear blue sky. If they could, Japan would not still be in depression almost a decade after its bubble burst.

Yet gullible people are probably more convinced of the 'Greenspan will save us fallacy' than ever. Don't be among them. You imperil your business and investments by accepting the idea that the Fed can create wealth by depreciating money. The most recent rate cut will not create savings where there are none or turn a lame investment into a winner.

Of course, you are told 'not to fight the Fed.' And perhaps you shouldn't. In the very short run. There are enough idiots who credit authorities with almost magical powers that the prospect of still more rate curts is bound to rally U.S. stocks. But that does not mean the rally will be sustained.

Over the long term, the Federal Reserve has proven itself not only to be very fightable but also beatable. Remember the U.S. dollar, which the Fed allegedly was formed to protect, has lost 99% of its value since the Federal Reserve was founded. Over time it has paid handsomely to bet against the Fed......

.......The tug of war between liquidation and the Plunge Protection Team had no clear winner as yet. The fact that the Fed took the extraordinary step of cutting rates between scheduled meetings tells you that there is a lot of bad news coming. Perhaps the banks that have acted like hedge funds were threatened with insolvency. Notwithstanding Fed ease, the world is going to be a scarier place. My guess is that the stock market will go down again and retest the lows."

Qoute John Dale Davidson, 10/28/98 "strategic investment" newletter

Also to the question of the ability of the Fed to effect an outcome on the markets it is pointed out in this issue that foreign investment in bonds and equities outweighs mutual fund investment by 2 to 1, and that money goes home when repatriation and defence of currency calls.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:03 - ID#339274)
FWIW.sell signal as well

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:04 - ID#334219)
Well you have some interesting points. Unfortunetely, I don't yet have all the numbers on I can't argue with what you say. Keep in mind that I am not saying that PDG is a better value, just that the picture you are painting is not accurate.

On cash/flows vs earnings. Strong cash flows of US$105/ounce by PDG have allowed them to continue to improve their business by expanding their production and reducing their costs. So they may spend some of this money on CAPEX...but it is for growth and not to only maintain their business, as you say, the proof:

1994 annual production: 1.7 million ounces
1996 annual production: 1.9 million ounces
1998 annual production: 2.9 million ounces

On reserves: Of course, if we apply a fixed multiple, Harmony is much more undervalued based on ounces in the ground. But one must look behind the number. The distribution of these reserves and the ability to increase annual production from these reserves is much more important that the total number of ounces. If Placer prduces almost 3X more ounces than Harmony with less reserves...that is efficiency. If most of Harmony reserves are in a few deep mines...never they will be able to reach the same levels of production vs reserves.

This being said. I agree with you and have no doubt that Harmony is a great investment for the years ahead...assuming gold continue to move higher. And given the current numbers, it is a better investment than far. However, I am curious about Harmony cash position, debts and hedging program if any... Can they sustain a prolonged drop in the price of gold...let say below $225 for 2-3 years ? Placer and Barrick can...what about Harmony.

FWIW, my intent is to strongly recommend Harmony...but not before the new bull market in gold is confirmed.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:06 - ID#194311)
Whadda ya know...boomers have been left holding the baby...hehehe

Wednesday October 28 1:18 PM EDT

U.S. Stocks Rally On Buying By Mutual Funds

By Jennifer Westhoven

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Stocks moved higher Wednesday as mutual fund managers plowed money back into
the market before the end of the month on hopes that Brazil was not on the verge of a currency collapse.

Around 1 p.m. EST, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 45.83 points at 8,411.87.

But in the broader market, declines led advances by a small margin on active volume of 373 million shares on
the New York Stock Exchange.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:07 - ID#411320)
Ready to make some money on the stocks sucker rally
Thats what going to happen...puts will become very valuable long about this month or next.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:07 - ID#339274)
fWIW buy signal ,things are starting to heat up.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:08 - ID#34459)
Train still on the track!!
XAU been shaking off the excess,,about to get in high gear looks like..Silver could be the surprise of the week.

Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:11 - ID#242214)
James Davidson is wrong
I hate to say it, but he is.

He's been wrong for the past eight years. Clearly, the Federal Reserve
*has* prevented a market panic and banking collapse. Clearly, the
Japanese have prevented a full-blown depression for *eight* years now.

Eight years is not "very short-term". Not in my world.

Puetz bet against the Feds in '97 and got his butt kicked.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. I can't believe that James Davidson *still*
hasn't realized that his one error in predicted the Great Reckoning
was a severe underestimation of just how much government can and
would do to prevent it.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:16 - ID#339274)
FWIW Xau has given a buy signal as well,looking good : )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:21 - ID#350194)
@Who Cares?
My point precisely about three-four months ago when I mentioned that, let's face it, Greenspan is using THE most advanced computers and one ot the best predictive teams in the world to counter each negative move in the markets to the best of his ability. I'm sure he didn't wish it to get to this stage and that his comments about 'irrational exuberance' had had more effect circa 7000 Dow, but he plays the cards taht are dealt to him and he plays them very well. 'Nuff Said.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:21 - ID#258273)
Who Cares
I disagree. Davidson and Rees-Moog have been very accurate about the sequence of events. They do not underestimate what governments will do. Quite the contrary. They expect the worst from the welfare statists.

Where they have been wrong is in the timing. That is, they have underestimated the reflation effect that the governments have had. I still believe that they are right about the ulitmate bankruptcy of these governments as they shoulder all this debt.

I hope you are wrong because ultimately it is the taxpayer who must pay this debt. That is us. Pencil that one out.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:26 - ID#350194)
@Big Fisherman
Actually, Big Guy, I agree with you also in that, "I still believe that they are right about the ulitmate bankruptcy of these governments" Double 'Nuff Said. ( Always wanted to say that! )

Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:29 - ID#242214)
Davidson & Rees-Mogg

have been right on several specifics, but majorly wrong on the "Great
Reckoning". Yes, *eventually*, accounts have to be balanced, but
Davidson's greatest fault is that he *underestimates* the opposition.

I've been waiting for the Great Reckoning for *eight* years now. And
yes, a lot has happened, many layoffs, collapse of land values, etc.

But the precipitating event of "the Great Reckoning" has failed to
materialize, both here and in Japan. Until we see a *major* increase
in unemployment, there will be no liquidation of bad debt. No change-
over to a 32-hour workweek, no grass-root movements at government
cutbacks. It's just not going to happen until we get 20%

Man, watching Davidson almost feels like watching Ken Starr now. He
keeps boning it!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:36 - ID#93127)
Neophyte-The closest to a "sure thing" that either of us is likely to stumble across

Re--Your interesting article's statement, "Prior to the introduction of EMU, accounting issues - such as whether national central banks valued the gold by the ounce or by the dollar, at $35 an ounce, or at market value - were irrelevant, analysts said."

The "Sure Thing"?
ECB will NOT value its gold holdings in USD terms. SDRs are a very likely candidate IF 'certain' 'reforms' 'occur' at IMF/WB. The SDR is a 'neater' match to the XEU [Euro] than the USD. And 95% of the population have no idea [and little interest] in what an 'SDR' might be.
Bankers like privacy. {:- ) )

IMF's 'gold standard': one troy ounce of gold equals 35 SDR [SDR, NOT USD!]

Japan International reserves, for example: gold is valued at SDR 35 per fine troy ounce and THEN converted into U.S. dollars at the SDR rate shown in the IMF publication "International Finance Statistics".

1998/10/26 Mon 0.71169 USD:SDR
1998/10/27 Tue 0.71485

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:44 - ID#258273)
Davidson & Rees Moog
Yup. I recently let my subscription to SI expire. If I had followed their advise I would be broke. I agree that they have underestimated the "opposition."

I would submit, however, that eventually the "opposition" will loose. History has shown us this. Governments have only been successful in manageing recessions. All deflations have been global and beyond the control of governments. I can't believe that this time it is different.

Only time will tell. Listen, it has been speaking for more than 2000 years.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:47 - ID#377196)
Davidson etc.
"The Great Reckoning" did happen. It hapened to the gold share
holders. Just a little mistake as to who was going to get their
asses kicked.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:53 - ID#93127)
Ran re-"Feral Reserve" very nice! {:-)

And Kairos-I still think it sounds like the Steve Jobs of old;
he and Larry intend to outdo the stellar Mac intro, and make the Win95 intro appear a non-event. It's a grand presentation whatever.

Enjoyed your 'read' of the clue! Thank you.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:55 - ID#258273)
Gold Dancer
Very good. I remember frantically trying to liquidate my position in a privately held concern in 1997 so that I could get aboard the gold bull. Thank goodness that it took until January of 1998. Otherwise I would have bought lots of Davidson's gold picks. Instead, I pick up what I wanted for 10 cents on the dollar, and had the other 90 cents left for other investment.

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 14:55 - ID#24135)
for CC ..
for your background ..
five years ago .. harmony had
less than 20 millions oz of resources.
Their management focused on how cheap
resources were here and started accumulating
they are now up to 100 million plus. They
are a bunch of really smart cookies.
They have also added Capacity .. They
understand asset value per share and
have picked up Evander's reserve's PLUS
capacity by issuing shares ..
I agree that the PART of capex ( cash flow )
that goes to GROWTH is a plus .. BUT a great
deal of capex related acquisitions in NA mines
is to replace exhausted reserves .. comparing
cash flow between NA companies who
are in the same boat scratching for
resources and making almost no profit
as a result is some kind of measure. My problem
is that I dont see the point of expanding
and producing etc if you dont make any money.
I mean .. why ?? look at homestake.
they lose their you know what .. I really dont
understand why anyone buys their stock.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:01 - ID#288115)
No new gold after Dec. 31,1999?
A gold coin in my pocket or a mining share electronically credited to my account in Idaho. Hmmm, I think I'll take the gold thank you.

got parachute pants?-lotsa really big pockets

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:02 - ID#408278)
General....Question do you work at Certified Mint ?......if memory serves me you plug them a lot

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:02 - ID#372228)
Who Cares? - Davidson
I let my subscription run out years ago on that one...I got tired of him harping over Clinton and the coverups in Washington...never did get any investment advice from the news letter that amounted to much it seems...his buddy "lees logs" in England seemed to be more relavent....

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:03 - ID#26367)
The Great Reckoning
I think the basic idea is that the harder the big government organizations manipulate the markets for so-called stability, the greater the whiplash as the boom/bust cycle unwinds. Over the last 2 weeks I've been in New Orleans ( James Davidson: "Gold will reliquify a bankrupt world." ) and Washington DC where the gov's aren't bullish on anything I heard discussed. Actions motivated by fear aren't always progressive. The only optimist I spoke to was Jose Pinera at CATO--also a friend of his from a Spanish think-tank, his optimism generated by the fact that everyone he has spoken to wants privitization of pensions funds, so that it is a matter of time before the unwinding happens. Pinera and others all see Euroland, as they call it, falling in 3 years times due to the new CB, growth of socialism, etc. The Chief Research Enconomist from the IMF explains that his organization can only "bail out," not prevent economic crashes, as wherever government is failing in reserves, even if he has the information from his models, he can't publish any stats unless the government itself agrees to the figures first ( which they wont of course ) -- comment by Rees Mogg: "Couldn't they at least leak it?" More leaks would be good! I didn't meet any bulls on Europe short term at least. Rick Rule was more positive on Australia and South African PM shares, also buying water sheds in the US, has Y2K proofed his firm by scraping the old program and says he isn't leaving the country 12/99. I'll check some notes for specific related comments to some of the PM minging shares. I remember Rule likes Pinoles on market drops whenever there is turmoil in Mexico. Regards, Lakshmi

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:05 - ID#194311)
Hedge funds staying in gold ...(should read short)..Rothschild.
Wednesday October 28, 4:58 am Eastern Time

Hedge funds seen staying active in gold-Rothschild

TOKYO, Oct 28 ( Reuters ) - Hedge funds are expected to remain active in the gold market in spite of the near-collapse of U.S. hedge fund
Long-Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) last month, an industry expert said on Wednesday.

At a gold conference in Tokyo, Robert Guy, director of investment bank N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd said funds active in gold have different
characteristics to LTCM.

``They are, in the jargon of New York, 'directional', they simply speculate one way or the other, up or down, it's not a particularly fancy piece of
arbitrage. That's why I think they will survive,'' he said in a speech.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:05 - ID#254288)
Article from the less visable Yahoo Local News

Denver Oct 27, 1998
"Colorado-based Newmont Mining says low gold prices are
to blame for a second round of job cuts this year. The
company employes about 65 hundred people world wide,
including three thousand in the United States. This time 150 workers will lose their jobs. Last January 500 workers lost their jobs because of failing gold prices."

Thoughts and Comments:
Will other lesser known producers soon follow, or have they already done so?
Is the increase in gold production for 1998 virsus 1997, the result of companies scrambling to pay the banker?
Is the increase the result of highgrading?
What will the survival rate be under the circumstances?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:15 - ID#377196)
Short? I read that as go with the flow. When gold goes over $310
the hedge funds will pile on. Just think what a few bilion will do to
the gold market and the gold shares.

Directional does not mean one way.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:17 - ID#222107)
Comparisons of 1990's to 1920's
larryn - made a good point on the 10% margins of the 1920's. I agree that the same thing will happen regarding Hedge funds, real estate, and other markets.

In the 1990's, new communications technologies ( Internet, electronic commerce ) have increased public interest in stocks and investments. Any average Joe can now execute a trade in seconds. In the 1920's the new technology was the telephone.

When banks couldn't pay their depositors ( 1929+ ) , they closed their doors for a few days until they could get some cash. When people saw the banks closed, they panicked, and wanted all of their cash out. The FDIC requires that banks can not be closed for more than three days. ( Ever notice that they're open on the day after Thanksgiving? ) This requirement also makes it difficult for banks to upgrade and test their informations systems. If you're handling live data, you can't just shut everything down and test for a few days.

The same scenario will happen in January 2000, due to Y2K issues. A few banks and other businesses will close due to Y2K issues, and folks will panic.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:26 - ID#288466)
Stochastics turning up - a BUY signal for gold within days?

John Disney
(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:27 - ID#24135)
Business Day
for CC..
Try this ..

if you want Harmony info , best place
to start is "Business Day" .. local
financial paper. Go there and use their
search facilities .. all kinds of

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:39 - ID#194311)
GD...let's think this through
Do we agree that the present hedge fund psoition in gold is heavily short or at least using gold as cheap source of capital for gold-carry trades ( in which case a rising gold price would kill them ) ? Acting as essentially proprietary trading arms for investment banks and CB's they are just doing their job, mister.

Now if one or two or a few were to take it upon themselves to rock this marginally stable boat, i.e. take large highly leveraged long positions, this would decimate the hedge fund industry, shake world banks to their cores and cause a level of financial panic and ruin never seen before in human history.

Only conclusion the hedge funds can not go long gold as it is to their peril, not to mention OTHERS. Now however if their were to be ANOTHER outside buyer of the physical, this would get the ball rolling and yes the jackal hedge funds still standing would be choring on the rotting carcass of the financial system, neck deep in gold calls and long futures until the entire system collapsed making all such plays meaningless to but a few bankers standing round wishing for previous glories to be replayed while the rest of world wallows in depression wondering why it all went so wrong.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 15:51 - ID#365216)
to Robnoel
Memory serves you wrong. I do not work for Certified Mint.
I have been burned before dealing with Precious Metals firms
and I want to make damned sure it doesn't happen again. Just
trying to check them out as much as possible before I make
a purchase. If what they say is true ( no commissions, private
transactions, good service ) then they have what I want.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:03 - ID#377196)

1. I am making the assumption that all hedge funds are NOT short gold.

2. I make the following assumption from observation: fund managers
are competitive. As are investors.

3. Being competitive they want to make more money than the next guy.

4. They realize that sometimes the most money can be made by "running"
some one elses postions.

5. In short, I am very confident that there are at least a few managers
of billions that see an opportutnity in the making and simply
will help that opportunity along its way. I.E. they will buy gold.

6. Soon.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:04 - ID#28882)
Silver stocks down 500,000 ozs

Here we go again? My Friendly Dealer wondered out loud today if Buffet had bought spot whilst lending his stash. This is from a guy who really doesn't care where the price is going; he buys low, sells high. As I have said in posts the last couple of days, load up! The Dec will expire at levels well above current values.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:14 - ID#28882)
Note re silver spreads

I have been saying that silver spreads are thinning only to see in the paper that, well, they're not. My floor trader said that during the day, the spreads _are_ thinner, but the closing settlements do not reflect this because, well, it wouldn't look good. My Friendly Dealer is noting the lease rates ( at least those that he quotes ) are creeping upwards, which is tantamount to narrowing spreads.



(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:21 - ID#254288)
Do dead cats bounce twice

Or is this the start of a new up move for silver, SIZ8 up 10.3 cents.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:22 - ID#372228)
Kiwi - Hedge Fun
Kiwi...wouldn't it be really neat if everone bought 10 ounces of gold and forced the hedge funds to cover their short positions...this would serve two, we would be converting worthless note paper into real money, and....two, we would return the gold market to a free market...ah, wishfull thinking isn't it!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:23 - ID#410165) a dealer let me address your staement
. If what they say is true ( no commissions, private
transactions, good service ) then they have what I want.

a ) no commissions.....that means they don't pay rent salarys tax etc....
b ) private transactions......nothings private....if you pay by cash,money order,bank law a record has to be kept if you go over $10,000 in a calender IRS form generated....paying by personal check is not recorded by the dealer but guess what your bank knows
c ) good the eye of the reciever

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:23 - ID#288186)
sam; Thanks for the report on Silver stocks. I usually get the Comex stats
from They haven't reported the Comex stats as of yet.
Was this latest drawdown in eligibles or registered? TIA Fox-man

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:25 - ID#350288)

Does anyone have news on GRERF. Just wondering why the activity and 8% jump this afternoon - not that I am complaining !!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:26 - ID#229207)
Who Cares?
Agree with all you say, except I'd substitute the word "delay" for the word "prevent." Of course, if they manage to delay the collapse of this debt cycle until I'm dead and gone, I guess that's as good as preventing it, at least from my personal, selfish perspective. But in the latest world events I see evidence that we are starting to lose the struggle to keep asset growth rates ahead of liabilities growth rates, evidence of the top of a debt cycle. Growth rates don't have to go negative for the US economy to get into trouble. If the rate of increase of asset growth to falls relative to the rate of increase of debt creation, we're in trouble.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:27 - ID#372228)
I like your analysis...thanks for the continued reinforces mine done in a different way...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:31 - ID#252391)
Go Silver go PAASF
Could have bet the ranch on PAASF today. Filled at the opening below my bid. Thank you very much. Thanks to for all the silver stock play book ideas very early this morning. PAASF was a strong performer in the group.

Now a 500,000 oz silver stock drawdown coupled with the reduction in gold stocks at Comex. This could get very interesting gold.

SWC pressing higher dispite the abismal performance of PT. Obviously not the focus of investors in that stock.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:33 - ID#343171)
Corner Bay up 76%, up 160% in 3 days
pending news form Mexico, anyone know more?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:33 - ID#288186)
sam; source show they were from registered(500k worth)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 28

Gold 827,089 - 1,194 troy ounces
Silver 73,048,158 - 537,088 troy ounces
Copper 68,598 - 372 short tons
There seems to be movements that, to me, signify that we'll be
seeing more drawdowns as the Dec contract closes in on expiration.
sam, I think you could be right about silver price going up soon,
especially if we see continued drawdowns...

Charles Keeling
(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:38 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: XAU up 4.66
Sudden spurt? What is the price of GOLD?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:39 - ID#20767)

The ultimate derivative is the mutual fund. The value of most, if not all, mutual funds is NAV ( net asset value ) . This figure is derived daily, if not more often, from underlying assets.

The reason that MFs are the 'ultimate' derivative is that they are self-directed!

Because 'momentum investing' is the primary characteristic of current market investing, the high prices charged for most securities is due to bidding wars between the 5000+ mutual funds. These bidding wars have been fueled, in great measure, by the captured liquidity available through 401Ks, pension plans, IRAs, etc.

One reason that Alan Greenspan may have loosened the official credit spigot is to allow MFs an external source of redemption funding in the face of declining fundamental valuations. I believe that this is AGs primary motivation.

If so, the crash to come is incomprehensible to all who think in terms of yesterday.

Bob in DC

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:42 - ID#343171)
Charles Keeling
xau down 1.04%

Charles Keeling
(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:46 - ID#344225)
At cooljing RE: XAU
Well, I guess the piece of software I use to get
quotes has failed. Thanks

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:47 - ID#28882)
Fox-Man re SI stocks - Eligible vs. Registered

Just because the decline was in the registered pool doesn't mean that, well, it ain't bullish. Decliing liquidity is the sign of the times -- who knows if a dealer didn't offer the registered owner a nice premium to spot, or a six month swap, or some other enticement to pry loose some physical so as to meet contract obligations in Dubai. I don't know. Are these two categories as rigid as is thought 'round here? Don't know.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:47 - ID#290172)
Charles Keeling---What is the price of GOLD?

We all have enormous difficulties with the "price of gold"
because gold is not 'priced'
gold "PRICES" {:- ) )

3P Gold
Date------3P JPY-----3P DEM----3P XEU---POG USD

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:51 - ID#288186)
SDRer; Well, so far your posts regarding POG staying as close to the 296
level ( per EMU requirements ) is still on track. Keep us posted.
Also, refresh my memory if you would. Is Nov. 6th the date at
which they want to keep the POG relatively stable around 296 price?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 16:57 - ID#255378)
Ding, ding The Bell is Ringing
Comex eligible stocks fell again today by 1,194 oz to 83,571 oz. This means that there is a total of 14 GRAMS of physical gold to be delivered against each 100 ounce contract!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:00 - ID#43349)
Whipsaw, there's that word again.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:04 - ID#194311)
GD...I appreciate you we arrive at the crossroads.
I agree their are a few "rogue" fund managers who are probably long gold in a specualtive play. However the overwhelming short position ( some say 8000 tons ) has been built up for a reason a little different than pure speculation, although there are elements of this attached.

These hedge funds have been using gold as money, i.e. capital, for other more speculative plays and generally lubricating the world's economies, ergo our boom.

However they have just figured out...hey gold is real money, we can't just create this stuff out of thin air, like yen or dollar. When the time comes to pay the piper somebody is gonna want real gold, that's what they have bought. The derivatives game with gold is not just like any other currency because it exists beyond the behest of government will.

If the hedge funds that are short ( read banks ) let gold get out of the cage it is curtains for them all. The derivatives unwind on gold will be so massive and sudden that the futures market in the precious metals will fold overnight locking many would be players out. It will never re-open.

The folly of using a physical commodity as a source of liquidity to arbitrage against other speculative plays is now plain for all to see, Nobel laureates can now even figure this lunacy out, from experience.

So you see the problem is there is no large volume of gold to be had at these prices, it is a false market. The few scraps that are being thrown to us lucky bugs keeps the lions at bay, if the funds that are now short would be asked to deliver this gold by a large specultive longs it would not happen, the market would collapse. So why go long into a collapsing market, you will never find a party to honour your "winning bet" on the other side?

This is why it is a rigged game and no hedge fund in their right mind will go long gold, however the hedge fund managers may just be stacking away a few bars in their back closets. This is the apalling situation in gold market at present. The western banking system has been doomed by the negilence of central bankers in the guardianship of the national treasures, especially gold, and they will pay the ultimate price.

Bottom line

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:05 - ID#288186)
sam; good point. I always figured eligible drawdowns were more significant,
but I can see, from your example, how any drawdowns display a possible
liquidity problem. I think we've known ( us kitcoites ) that silver
would eventually make its move. Despite the massive shorting by
hedge funds and what-not, the fundamentals will eventually win out.
I still don't fully accept the notion ( as Martin Armstrong reports )
that there are massive amounts of silver, sitting in London warehouses,
waiting to flood the market...Also, I still haven't fully fallen for the
notion that we're in the midst of a massive worldwide deflationary
environment. It seems more like disinflation has ruled the last couple
of years. But....I'm not an economist...I'm not learned in economics...
I'm just a simple investor who looks at many many articles, opinions, etc
regarding our economy, and make my assessment based on that. Thanks, Fox-man

Charles Keeling
(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:08 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: SEC Wakes Up
Washington, D.C. Oct. 28  The U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission on Wednesday charged 44
individuals and companies with committing
securities fraud over the Internet.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:13 - ID#43349)
Blue Pacific, maybe LTCM sould have used it.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:17 - ID#334219)
Speculation on Corner Bay. Players are positioning themselves for the next set of results coming soon at Alamo Dorado. These new drill holes will tell how big this one is.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:24 - ID#253153)
From Kenya ( Africa) on the way to the holy land
Deflation is still accelerating. We are still in a confirmed Primary Dow Theory Bear Market .The second phase of the bear market is starting now. In Kenya there is a full scale depression. People work here for $50 per month and foreign currencies are very precious. I just had a wonderfull dinner for $5. Deflation can't be stopped or reversed by any politician or central banker. It will run until it exhaust itself. By Q 1-2 of 1999 a depression will begin to unfold in the US. It will severe and will last for many years. Gold will rise as an hedge against bankruptcies and a safe haven for money exiting equities, real estae and businesses . In a depression there will be no business expansion and capital will seek safety . Interest rates, commodities and equities will decline to some very low levels. God bless.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:35 - ID#43352)
Big buyer

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:40 - ID#316256)
JP: Tell me more about Kenya. Are you near Nairobi or Kilimanjaro? Have you seen Victoria Lake and Falls? Is it beautiful? Is it politically stabil? What is the Serengeti Plan like? Tell us all. Africa in my mind is where I often dream of being.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.59. The 233 day moving average is 28.84

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:48 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .251. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:51 - ID#30345)
Great posts today. Thanks for the info.

Bully Beef
(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:53 - ID#260119)
I think that as a group we should come up with objective reasons why we feel the price of gold
has been fixed and raise money to bring a Class Action Suit against the meddlers in the free market. If we brought legitimate media attention to our suspicions... this in itself would have... I think ...a considerable effect on our precious.If we all brought our energies to this focus who knows... we might bring the price up a buck. "Many hands make light work."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:57 - ID#343171)
CC - Corner Bay
Corner Bays Alamo Dorado project could host 20-40 million ounces of silver, my numbers, if so the stock would at least triple, this next
press release will be a make or break, short term anyway, I got in
yesterday AM in anticipation of good news, its almost a double already.
They only have 6.7 million shares so great news will do wonders.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 17:58 - ID#194311)
The lovely Judy Shelton, (maybe repost)
Trying to get a monetary gold standard back onto the academic agenda. We should be witnessing the capping glory of free integrated world markets not their demise but for the want of a stable unit of account and the elimination of mind control by over-egoed central bankers clinging desperately to their usurous interest rate lever.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:08 - ID#28882)
Fox-Man, silver

Cheers. There's is _not_ warehouses and warehouses full of the stuff in London, as our beloved Marty Armstrong would have us think, for small purchaes ( 5-10 mil ozs ) have a noticible impact on lease rates. I mean, there _may_ ( in fact there is almost certainly is ) large stocks off-exchange, but if high rates cannot coerce them to market, then are they really there? A variant of "if a tree falls in the forest.."

Food for thought....


(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:08 - ID#253153)
LSteve---Yes, Africa is beautiful, just like in the movies
I just got back to Nairobi after a 7 days Safari in the Serengeti. It was awesome watching the elephants, the lions, the Chita's and all the other animals in the wild. I had a fantastic time just being there and experiencing the wild. I did visit Victoria lake and falls prior to my Safari
and they are impressive. Nature deserves our respect, loyalty and protection. About 5 years ago I climbed mount Kilimanjaro. It took 28 hrs to get to the top. Kenya is a stable democracy, very safe for tourists and very much in need for our dollars. It was an unforgettible experience and I would highly recommend it to anyone who is interested in travel to exotic places. I'll be visiting Luxur Egypt on Oct 30-31 ( to see the valley of the kings, the tumbs and the pyramids ) prior to my visit in Israel .

Steve in TO
(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:14 - ID#287337)
Bully Beef - Price fixing of the price of gold by the . . .
central banks has been reported in all the major media- and it had no effect! Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying that the CBs were using gold leasing to prevent price rises- and there was no reaction whatsoever from John Q Public or Joe Sixpack.

The media have reported on "Plunge Protection" rigging of markets by the US, Hong Kong and Malaysian governments- and the response of the public has been a collective yawn. Canada's Finbancial Post even did a favourable article on the Hong Kong intervention- because the HK gov't actually has a paper profit right now. Of course they could't actually sell their stake without driving prices down to the point where they wpuld lose money . . .

Don't expect publicity to cause much action. Contrarians like most of the people who inhabit this Kitco board will tend to lead a lonely life.

- Steve

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:16 - ID#219363)
Thanks so much for posting the links and especially for the new page that has the differential chart on it, good stuff. I visit your excellent page pretty often, I'm sure others here do as well.

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:17 - ID#212323)
Bully beef's 17:53 and Trader vic's 16:22 to kiwi
All this talk of free markets ( or lack thereof ) for gold...for example, trader's suggestion that "would return the gold market to a free market..."
Folks, check the price...sub-$300 gold is as close as it gets to a FREE-gold market. Take advantage of it! I think that what you are calling for is a "reality-based market", and I want to remind you that under that scenario your purchasing days will be but a memory. Unless you are at the point in retirement where you must now liquidate gold to meet your expenses, why call for an early end to this "free" gold market? Use the manipulation to your benefit.

got bargains?

Free Kiwi
(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:21 - ID#156396)
Dow October 1998 update. Still looking dangerous!!.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:25 - ID#219363)
Every market in Europe and the Americas ended down today, in Europe markets were down between one and six percent. US and Canadian markets were the only exceptions and moved slightly higher. Japan was down two percent if I remember correctly. Interested in seeing what happens in the overseas markets tonight, might be fun, who can say.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:31 - ID#290456)
It's plastic ruler time

Folks, we are REALLY close to breaking through a
major down trend line in gold priced in SF, DM,
FF, ECU etc.

If the charting page doesn't come up, click on
PLOT DATA ( single series )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:39 - ID#290456)
Plastic ruler, part II

The pattern for silver in the same currencies ( SF, FF, DM, ECU ) is even clearer - a distinct diagonal triangle. Diagonal triangles are nearly alway terminal patterns. Silver may break out of this one tomorrow.

The metals bull may be close at hand.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:40 - ID#194311) true...
at this price gold is neigh on FREE!

Scoop it up is hour.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:48 - ID#433143)
Space travel, here we go again ;)

damn. NASA already has an ION drive that was launched saturday? didnt know they already built the thing? well i guess this is something the tax dollars have been doin over the years. btw, when they build space colonies, im not goin, i might accidently get trapped in an airlock, and get flusehed with the garbage, OR heh bake in my spacesuit! hahahah

G - feet firmly planted in terra firma.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:51 - ID#252150)
Walt@If you're out there, thanks for asking for advice on the oil service
stocks on Mon. I replied that I thought that if everybody was buying & recommending them, they were probably a good shorting opportunity. Fortunately, I took my own advice for a change. I sold 1000 PDS short yesterday @ 22.10CDN & covered this morn @ 19.50. That gain covered about 2/3 of my short sale loss with PDG. Thanks again.

Got whipsawed badly with PDG. In & out 4 times since Mon. Finally got stopped out of my last short for a small gain this morn. Still think it will go back down below 20Cdn, but just don't have the patience to persevere with any more shorts. Commissions are killing me. Over 1600 in my short acount alone in the last 45 days.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:52 - ID#252391)
To Silverbaron / Metals in Euros
A forth coming break out in the metals in the Euro takes more imagination than I can muster. I'd say the trends are so well defined that a change may be at hand, but hese are bear markets with a huge CAPITAL BBBBB.

A Elliot Waver could count down waves till he was blue in the face looking at these charts. Sorry Silverbaron - don't see it, yet.

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:55 - ID#212323)
kiwi...kudos, my good man. And kudos again! (your 17:04)
You made a brief comment on my post a few days ago ( last friday? ) wherein I mentioned the prospect of a large institution refusing to continue to "play nice with the others". You have succeeded in further baking that idea into a fine meal for general consumption at 17:04. Thanks for giving it the time I failed to muster on my own. The only thing I might add is in regard to these short sales ( gold loans ) being cleverly utilized to raise liquidity without affecting CB balance sheets ( as we all know, wanton inflationary practices are quickly punished by currency speculators these days ) . We must recognize that the source of backing for these gold loans are the very same European banks that are putting their eggs into one basket--the euro. A successful launch means EVERYTHING to them, and they will do as necessary to ensure it. As US dollars ( and others ) were in great need to prop up this wobbling global house of cards, gold loans via short selling was an effective tool to create money into the system while much of the gold moved not an inch. Because a premature POP to the paper markets ( and subsequent flight to gold ) would be disastrous for them, an explosive unwinding of these sales prior to euro launch will not be allowed to happen. Afterwards, anything goes. In fact, the banks likely EXPECT the rapid price movement that locks up the market due to the puny supply of available physical gold to grease the wheels. As the banks still hold the gold that was promised on paper as a result of the short sale/forward sale/gold loan ( call it whatever you like ) , rather than give up the gold, they will settle the short seller's default with CASH--euro cash, not gold. This will add new euro liquidity into the world that is effectively backed by gold...100% in terms of THAT cash amount. The gold stays in the bank, and the world has a new pricing mechanism for gold...euros. A lot of 'em! Non-inflationary liquidity. What started as a means to prolong USDollar liquidity ( and remove gold from investor psyche through falling prices ( remember, the euro has been in the works for years! ) becomes a natural ( and brilliant ) means to generate a non-inflationary world supply of euros sufficient to fill non-european national vaults as the new world reserve currency.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 18:58 - ID#31868)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' a gulp and a puff to ya...whew...I sure
am glad to see that you got your appetite back!!!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:02 - ID#290456)

Differing views are what make markets, yes?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:03 - ID#252150)
JP@Did you see Tarzan in Africa. Reminds me of a cartoon I remember
from playboy-probably 30 yrs ago. Tarzan & Jane are out on the deck of their treehouse & all around them the animals are fornicating. From the elephants right down to the pygmy monkeys. Tarzan turned to Jane & said "You know Jane it's a f*cking jungle out there."

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:03 - ID#212323)
Actually, your market descriptions turn out to be pretty tame compared to seeing my lunch for a second time. I guess it is all relative.

got kin?

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:05 - ID#212323)
kiwi...would you grant me permission to quote your 17:04 in conjuction with my 18:55?
got generosity?

Aragorn III
(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:08 - ID#212323)
How do you do it? Within three minutes you somehow updated the kitco posts which included my 18:55, read it, and responded. Heck, most posts are day-old-bread before I see them, not to mention RESPONDING to them.

got unnatural powers?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:09 - ID#432395)
Taint bout gole, but
I was wondering if anybody could give me the names of a few of the larger NA co's that manufacture portable generators. TIA

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:16 - ID#252391)
Silverbaron I take it all back
I just printed out the charts in question. AMAZING!!!!
Perfect triangles or declining wedges. THe ECU in Gold is within a month of the end of a declining wedge, the top bounds of which are a straight line and I mean straight line. This thing can not go into a tigher box.

Silver in ECU is a broad ascending triangle going back to a Nov 96 bottom. The Apex of this triangle is in a month as well.

I still construe the charts as bearish patterns, but they are so well defined, especially gold in ECU - now I wonder why that would be. Anything over $250 ECU's or $300 will be a break out.!!!!!!!!!!!

Notice the time period - about a month away.

Thanks for calling my attention to those charts there Silverbaron - you're all right.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:17 - ID#235231)
@James - your 18:51 re. Oil Service Stocks
Good for you. These oil service guys had too much of a run-up since the beginning of Oct and are definitely in overbought territory. Great for shorting. Gold stocks, on the other hand, are still oversold IMHO. I'm long and I'm crossing my fingers that I'm doing the right thing.


Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:18 - ID#242214)
Class Action Lawsuit over Fixed Price of Gold

Look, think this out.

If the price of gold is not fixed, then we look like raving nutcases
that believe cold fusion works.

If the price of gold IS fixed, do we really want to take on the
governments of the world who have already proven themselves skilled
at assasinations and Texas bonfires?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:19 - ID#340366)
Did some research on generators and settled on Generac with overhead valves. Nearly as good as Honda but a lot less gold.
available at Home Depot stores.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:24 - ID#290456)

My advice ( I don't normally do this, but based on those chart patterns ) for anyone who is thinking about buying gold or silver or mining stocks: Better get your positions in before the U.S elections. Diagonal triangle patterns hardly ever play out to the end point, IMHO.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:26 - ID#333126)
size of korean debt problem (where's my calculator?)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:28 - ID#31868)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' gulp and puff to ya...luck...impure and
completely adulterated luck...yup...uh huh...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:35 - ID#432395)
@Flash--Thank You.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:36 - ID#219363)
Cold Fusion
I believe the new term is "Zero Point Energy" ( at least if it wants funding )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:39 - ID#219363)
And Alchemy
Has also been replaced with the term "Transmutation".

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:44 - ID#304282)
This sure looks like a potential head and shoulders formation.
Look at the large volume on the left shoulder and head. Also notice the light volume on the right shoulder. This chart also contains a decending neckline- signals a very rapid fall ahead. Look for the right side of the right shoulder to start forming any time now. Next, look for a fast break below 40. Then look out below. This looks like an excellent shorting canidate.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:45 - ID#286249)
Fox-ManNovember 26th? No, not I.

Target: late Jan early Feb, all Euro debt to be redenominated is on a staggered schedule: Germany will have it out of the way by the middle of January, but others are not so efficient. One expects that they would prefer for gold to remain in its box until then.

My work indicates that 270s was too low [ALL the reciprocals went scatty!] and 301 too high. Working on a new lead that may help us be more exact. {:- )

Thanks so much for the Comex posts. And thanks too to Arden, who more or less started it all!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:49 - ID#344326)
Commentary from Bill Murphy taken from Silicon Investor...
Yes, this is the quiet before the bullish storm.
1. No one is bullish and the bulls that there are, look for $320 gold. Two years ago, if you called for $320 gold you would be called a screaming bear
2. Silver just popped 20 cents. with no fanfare. Comex stocks about to make a new low. Any of the rich could take out the entire Comex stocks and pay CASH.
3. The XAU popped over 5 yesterday on a $1.20 gold move. Why? My guess and opinion. Late on the day before Merrill Lynch announced that it was cutting out its commodity derivative operations in London and New York. Ted Arnold ( he is getting canned ) was the big bear and was dead right. For being right, he gets canned. This makes no sense. UNLESS, we have been right at in our analysis. Because of the hedge fund debacle,all plays like the gold loan ones are being scrutinized. Merrill does not want another Orange County. Their Chairman has said publicly it will take two years to sort out LTCM. The loans to LTCM are up in two weeks ( after the elections ) . They know if gold does go up sharply, they cannot deliver the gold ( big tonnage ) except at much higher prices. Decision at the top: get out.
That is just the beginning of many like that when the accountants for various financial institutions realize what has been going on. Therefore, gold supply is going to dry up. The EMU will not sell much gold after the first.
Uptown for gold ( big time ) is right around the corner.
For what it is worth,

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:52 - ID#304282)
Here's a H&S that has already been confirmed.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:55 - ID#284255)
You will find lots of information on generators here.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:55 - ID#286249)
Fox-Man- Oh! the light dawns...[dense? love to]

Nov 26th is the day that either

( 1 ) we discover we are not alone, or
( 2 ) Steve Jobs, Larry Ellison, the folks at Memex,,
bring unto us our own 'Hal' personal computer, or
( 3 ) Ran's book hits the shelves {:- ) )

(Wed Oct 28 1998 19:56 - ID#304282)
Here is a very long term H&S (head and shoulders)

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:04 - ID#304282)
Here are some more "market leaders" with H&S patterns.
click here to view the graphes....

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:04 - ID#284255)
Free Kiwi
I hope it is alright with you but I have added your Dow 29/87/98 chart to my master page.
I can update it whenever you post it.

It is the first chart in the chart section.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:05 - ID#290456)
Steve Kaplan says BUY PLATINUM !!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:12 - ID#340262)
If you are interested about events in Brazil I came across a good web site in Brazil that is in English and has
extensive up to date financial news about Brazil its free just fill in questions for access.
You might have to type it in - The Japanese Pensions Funds have been in the market tonight they must up to there ears in stocks - cjk -


(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:12 - ID#290456)
Check out the market cycles, especially for

Gold ( Daily ) ....near its low
Silver ( Weekly ) the Moon! ( no offense,
mozel )

User: hixson
Password: thmetal

Only a couple more days until this trial runs out
- you might want to copy the charts for future
reference unless you wish to subscribe to the

Crystal Ball
(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:15 - ID#287371)
Yet ANOTHER unforseen Y2K problem !!
And you thought all Y2K problems had to have something to do with computers. Wrong! The cemetery industry has reported that when a spouse passed away a number of people had matching gravestones made with the surviving spouse's only showing the name, birth year, and the two digits 19 carved in. In the last few decades the advances in medical science have contributed to a longer lifespan and some of these people will outlive not only their spouse but the end of the century as well. Many of these gravestones are already in place beside the loved one's grave on the empty plot or in warehouses waiting for the last two digits of the year to be added!
Happy Halloween

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:16 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:17 - ID#430221)
Agree with your post that the Euro boys want a successful launch
of their new currency. And maybe that will hold back the gold market
till next year. No one really knows.

But all these positions that have been put on started three years
ago with gold over $400 and most were put on over $325. So I don't
see it necessary for gold to stay below $300 till Jan.

Also, all these short positions are, to me at least, related to the
Euro in some way. In other words the 8000 tonns is not really true.
There are off-setting positions and arrangements.

Still a rising price of gold will help to produce more Euros. And
a lot of them will be needed if the Euro is to become a world currency.
Remember all the talk about gold coins. Will your baker take them? etc.

This is really too much for me to understand all at once. And I
doubt I could anyway. I just know good values when I see them and
I think the US$ is overpriced and gold is underpriced. That I can
deal with.

I did enjoy reading your post and you may be very close to what is
going to happen. Keep it up.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:19 - ID#290456)
These guys forecast a dip in the gold stocks

until election day ( Nov 2 ) in the U.S. Surprise,
surprise. The site contains, HM, ABX, NEM, BMG,

Maybe a good entry point?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:22 - ID#341227)
@ALL...spoke to my PM dealer yesterday....
...a large distributor here in L.A.....and he confirms RJ's statements concerning Platinum Maple Leafs.

They don't have them...and don't know when they will be getting them again.




(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:37 - ID#215235)
Steve Kaplan is screaming to buy platinum. I only watch the other PMs peripherally, concentrating mainly on gold and mining shares. Given the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum, high ration of long traders' commitments, and dependence on Russia as its main supplier - with a dying president, perhaps Kaplan has made another good call.

Can someone explain the intricacies of purchasing long platinum contracts? What do they cost? How far out should one buy? What month is most liquid? What is a good price to buy in at? What would your stop/loss be? Etc. Thanks in advance.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:37 - ID#412172)
JP and Safari
JP, Could you give a price range for a safari like the one you just took? Sounds grand ( s ) and I need some inspiration for plotting my market strategies. Seriously, it sounds like such a wonderful experience and here I am bidding my time making money trading techie type stocks while waiting ( not long now ) for silver, gold and platinum to dig in their hooves and go. I definitely need inspiration, before its too late!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:47 - ID#194311)
AragornIII, GD,
So as we boil this cloudy soup down to it's essential ingredients the taste gets stronger and the amount of material smaller. A taste too strong for some palates, indeed.

GD: quite as you say, in summary, gold is OUTRAGEOUSLY cheap in $US.

Aragorn: quote as much or as little as you need...where will it appear?

Farfel: Bygones?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 20:58 - ID#348286)
@PLATINUM Situation
There hasn't been any Platinum available at Kitco for at least a couple of weeks. Royal Cdn Mint is out, and the word is they will be producing a batch in 30 days. Physical is very scarce unlike Gold.
Also the bar premium is much higher than Gold.
Just hope the price stays here until the supplies are available.
Futures are bogus.........

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:19 - ID#43349)
Apex Silver

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:22 - ID#190411)
Silverbaron and jims,
I printed out the charts that you were writing about, and did the plastic ruler traces. I see what you mean about the shape of the wedge, but, I don't know what to make of it.
I assume that if POG or POS is swinging between these boundaries like a damped wave, this means something to a chartist.
What happens at the apex of the wedge?
I have been amazed at the way GC98Z has lost all volatility lately. It just stays in these daily gapdowns of a couple bucks. It rarely swings more than a dollar all day at COMEX. Is it that dead?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:23 - ID#350194)
Platinum and the Dutchman
Does anyone recall our debates around here about 22-24 months ago ( I'd have to check exactly ) as to when the best time to get into Platinum would be? Platinum was actually BELOW the price of Gold at that point and, as it turned out, the best time was right about when we were discussing it in earnest. Some of us answered the question by stating that the best time would be when Platinum crossed over the Gold. This was excellent advice. I just can't seen to remember who gave it. ;- )
As to your current queries, Dutchman, let's take it one at a time.
1 ) "Can someone explain the intricacies of purchasing long platinum contracts?" Big question. Do some ( a lot - if you presently know little ) study on futures contracts before getting involved. There are many sites on the web which give this type of detailed instruction. If you can't locate on your own, keep asking and someone here will point some out.
2 ) "What do they cost?" Basically a long futures contract is a legal obligation for the entire amount of the commodity based on whatever price you buy in at minus whatever price you sell out at. However you do not pay full value of the commodity up front but merely place a small ( or large ) percentage on deposit with your broker. Thus you may 'control' a certain quantity of the commodity with a marginal downpayment and therefore you have great 'exposure' ( leverage ) to price fluctuations. Each Platinum contract 'controls' 50 ounze of metal.
3 ) "How far out should one buy?" Up to you, but 3-6 months may be suitable. As the month of expiry draws near you may 'roll-over' into a further out month once again.
4 ) "What month is most liquid?" Study your new craft. ( Are we witches and warlocks around here? Aurator? ) . In the newspaper under commodities they will list the various months that contracts are offerred in. After each month there is a column listed with the total outstanding contracts for that month. Obviously, in most cases, the month with the most outstanding contracts will offer the best liquidity.
5 ) "What is a good price to buy in at?" You tell us. We're all ears around here for everyone's reasoned opinion.
6 ) "What would your stop/loss be? Etc." This would depend on your exact entry point, your risk tolerance, your studied opinion of its charts, fundamentals, past and recent price history etc., etc, etc. OR you may just have a percentage system wherein if the commodity goes down 3, 5, 7 percent ( etc ) you get out. You need to develope a strategy in advance of trading. Many recommend 'paper trading' before plunking down the real ( ? ) stuff. Good Luck!
7"Thanks in advance." Welcome. Mooney

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:29 - ID#412172)
A slow night on Kitco
usually portends significant moves in the near future. Sure wish someone would answer Dutchmans question on Pl futures as I too would like to be enlightened, even as I queried RJ over a week ago ( He probably ignored me because I likely said options instead of futures, what can I say, old habits die hard ) BTAIM
Brothers, can you spare a ( recommended ) strike price? Perhaps even a morsel of an expiration date??

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:30 - ID#350194)
Earle you should check back on Silver circa 1993. For weeks and weeks it was going up or down $.01 to $.03 This was just before it took off from the ridiculously low price of $3.60! ( And of course all the commodity brokers who really know their stuff - and I'm little orphan Annie - were telling all those who would listen that Silver was out for the count ) .

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:31 - ID#350194)
@ Roebear!
How 'ya doing buddy? Did my few words help you any?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:33 - ID#412172)
Thanks for your take, it is appreciated. Other views welcome also.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:38 - ID#412172)
It is good to hear from you again. And you still type faster! Your words of wisdom remind me of the risks involved and I will also be searching other methods of leveraging for the platinum opportunities. Perhaps options of related mining stocks, but I believe there are few. Feel free to email me also, if you still have my address.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:44 - ID#215235)
Thanks for the advice. I do understand the fundamentals of trading futures contracts. What I tried to evoke was divergent scenarios regarding platinum futures. I was hoping to get several Kitcoites who trade the stuff to inform regarding their current strategies and sources of information. Always trying to learn. Your recommendations were right on. Thanks.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:45 - ID#43349)
Liquidity, Contagion, and Systemic Risk

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:45 - ID#25257)
Have you checked into Garnet and Gold lately?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:49 - ID#219363)
Metal Movements
Has anyone checked to see what the last upwards movement in gold did for the prices of metal related investments ? What I mean by that is - when gold went up, what provided the best return ( and low risk ) on the move ? Was it futures, options on futures, options on metal stocks, metal stocks, physical, physical on margin, metal funds, etc, what blasts off when metals move up ? And what drops like a rock when metals move down ? Just trying to learn something from recent movement.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:51 - ID#287114)
Control of gold
For many months now I have been reading daily posts of the price of gold being controlled. If this is the case, why would anyone even consider owning such a commodity? Investing in something that is controlled by others for their own purposes, and which you yourself have no control over, is not a good investment and logically is not even common sense.
Is gold controlled or is it not?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:57 - ID#350194)
Perking UP! @JP, Free Kiwi and crazytimes (and that lurker Bill Murray)
JP - Checking all the sites! Don't forget the Reify memorial somewhere in downtown Haifa! Free Kiwi - Great chart. Thanks.
crazytimes - Seems that Bill Murray guy must have been on Kitco reading my 'Calm Before the Storm' ditty last night.
Mooney* ( Calm Before the Storm ) ID#350194:
Copyright  1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"He drove to 'Grandad's Park' at the end of one of his usual long days; just to have a
few 'human' moments for himself - to commune with - nature - and relax, now that
business and family were put to bed.
Hale Bebop, Saturn, Venus, conjunctions, El Nino in back of mind, Leonids on the
Horizon, car coasted into park beside pebbled shore of moonsprayed pond. Radio
off, listen to wind and night. Utter silence; broken fragily, at odd intervals, by
Canada Geese calling to mate. Perfectly Golden translucent Half-Moon shining on
expansive dead-still pond. So calm
'tis, that one can almost ( but not quite ) count individual leaves in perfect
loving admired. No wind, no cloud, not even the faintest hint of movement.
Evening - October 27th - Rouge River Pond - T.O.
Calm before the Storm? "

(Wed Oct 28 1998 21:59 - ID#225236)
Forget GOLD! A new idea for a business!!!
SEATTLE ( AP )  Online book and music seller Inc. lost more than four times as much money in the third quarter than it did a year earlier  but its sales and number of registered customers also quadrupled. ...

Here is how it goes: You stand on a street corner and say: "I will give everybody a buck." You give away $10 Million in the first quater and have 10 Million custommers. Next quater you give away $40 Million to 40 Million "custommers."

You obviously must go public with an idea like that. What does your stock do when you announce that you have four times as many "custommers" as you had before. It goes UP, but of course, the NEW economy!

SEATTLE ( AP )  Online book and music seller Inc. lost more than four times as much money in the third quarter than it did a year earlier  but its sales and number of registered customers also quadrupled.

The high-flying Internet merchant on Wednesday reported a net loss of $45.2 million or 90 cents per diluted share, compared with a loss of $9.6 million or 21 cents a share in the same period a year ago. The most recent quarter includes $20.5 million of merger and acquisition-related costs.

Revenues climbed from $37.9 million last year to $153.7 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30. closed Wednesday at $117.06 1/4 a share, up 75 cents, on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

The number of customer accounts at's World Wide Web site increased by more than 1.2 million during the third quarter to nearly 4.5 million. That compares with 940,000 as of Sept. 30, 1997. began its online music sales in June. That segment did $14.4 million in sales in the third quarter. also operates PlanetAll, a Web-based address book, calendar and reminder service; the Internet Movie Database; and bookstore Web sites tailored for the United Kingdom and Germany.

For the first nine months of the year, the net loss was $78.1 million or $1.60 a share on sales of $357.1 million, compared to a loss of $20.2 million or 48 cents a share on sales of $81.7 million a year earlier.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:04 - ID#350194)
Roebear - Thanks for reminding me to mention this to all my past contacts in Kitco space. ALL - My past e-mail files grew so large that I'm afraid I don't have time to scrutanize them all, so anyone who has been thinking of e-mailing me at any time please feel free!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:04 - ID#31868)
skinny, Namaste' and a gulp to is not a is the one true
money on Earth...everything is priced in relation to more no less...this is a fact and cannot be as to why anyone would want to own any gold...I think that has been answered in this post...

During your response please try and utilize something other than the homogenized 90's to explain to me WHY gold is not the ONLY recognized money on Earth...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:07 - ID#287114)
Do not know why... but somehow it has a value established in fiat American greenback.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:08 - ID#224230)
Skinny - you're right but....
Everybody here is trying to second guess when the price of that control will outweigh the benefits of allowing the price to go free. i.e. when can they afford to give up.

After USA elections ( Democrats doing better than expected )
After EMU "takes off"
After Brazil goes bellyup
When Boris shuffles off his youknowwhat and Lebed takes over.
When the Y2K scare factor kicks in
And my favourite.. When the Messiah makes a Larry King appearance....

Take your pick.

I'm watching and waiting to pounce here because I have a compelling need for a 1973 Ferrari Dino. How about you ?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:08 - ID#333126)
hmm... hang seng takes a dive^HSI&d=1d

300+ points down... as of this writing

we shall watch this unfolding together, yes?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:14 - ID#261118)
Petronius........... Short Amazon!!! shro Ebay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so who's got the balls for this....

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:16 - ID#430221)
IMHO for what it is worth
I think the fiat money game will continue. I think that what we
are seeing is a big bump in the road: Asia, Russia etc.

The banks are here to stay. A gold coin standard might be good for
Russsia or some other less developed country but it will never be in the
US. Now don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that your ( and my ) gold
coins will not be worth anything. They will. But not for buying bread or
beer. They will be useful for buying debt. Someone elses. For 10 cents
on the dollar. Like a house. THe banks will be happy to take your gold
in exchange for the debt that can't be repaid.

Right now in Japan, US companies are buying real estate for 10 cents
on the dollar. What goes around, comes around.

But you can't buy a bottle of SAKE for 10 cents on the dollar
because there is no debt behind it. That is the key to understanding what is likely to happen here. When the "Roll Over" happens debt will
be a dirty word. Use your gold coins accordingly. Just don't expect to
pay the plumber $5 an hour. It ain't going to happen. Maybe he will discount to $30 in a pinch.

SO the world will not fall apart. Banks will continue with slightly
altered currencies. This will be bettter than before.

But first positions have to be unwound. So now it is our turn in the
global wringer. We will survive. Gold investments will do very well.

With 15% backing and needing higher gold prices to create more EUROS
and Dollars ( probably ) there will be no incentive to keep the price
down anymore. The price will go to supply and demand. It will overshoot
and then fall back to a more steady price. Don't know what they are.
But money will be made. Big money.

Thanks, GD

PS: But in reality I don't want to carry around gold coins to do my
grocery shopping. I like my debit card. It is easy and it works. It is
also light in weight.

Credit and debt will not go away. The developing world needs it
to build roads, houses, etc. A gold coin standard won't cut it.

But, currencies, with gold backing will work for a while. A decade
or two or three. Looks like 15% backing at least.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:19 - ID#31868)
skinny, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...actually the reverse is true as is the fact that
Gold has been the pallbearer at the funeral of every fiat currency since the dawn of time...

the more things change the more they remain the same...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:25 - ID#16255)
@skinny. Why ask Why?
Usually when anything is under some sort of control it never lasts.
I feel that they will loose control in the near future based on demmand
for physical that I have seen. I have a friend who is dumping 10k
into physical tomorrow. The brokers fone line is always busy and he never
seems to have the time to B.S like he used to. He tells me that orders
for 100k are a daily thing. He is just one of hundreds of brokers on the
block and is busier that he has ever been in his 20 yrs. in the biz.

I look around and see paper everywhere and even own some. But, there are
some firebugs out there waiting to set fire to all of it. I do not want
to be on the wrong side of that.

A little more that a cubic foot of Gold weighs a ton ( 2000lbs )
Its really not hard to imagine 8000 cubic feet of Gold. Gee, that would
fit into my living room. I can see the central banks sweating alot
in the near future.

The last thing that the powers that be want, is for the price of gold to rise.
Oh my! That would indicate some sort of a problem IMHO.

A gulp but no puff to ya! ( quit smoking a year ago ( still struggling )

Regards, O.L.

Lurker 700
(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:26 - ID#319327)
Sharefin, Please post that Yasia, Yeuro, Yamerica charts again!
I lost my bookmarks, would you please post that Yahoo charts again?
Thanks a lot!

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:28 - ID#16255)
@tolerant1. Its money to me too!
I would always accept Gold or Silver in exchange for something I have for sale!

Gold Dancer
(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:28 - ID#430221)
And if 15% backing doesn't last forever.....
they still will have the gold and will just come out with another
currency. Maybe if the world gets hit with a comet, or WWIII over does
itself, or a plague kills enough people, a gold coin standard is all
that is left. There will be plenty of it around for the folks who are
left alive!!! Somehow, I hope not. Food would be more important.
Under any of those circumstances.

Enough. I too want my Dino Farrari. GO GOLD.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:34 - ID#287114)
Open Loop ..Tolerant1
I quit smoking myself a year and a half ago. I still throw an ugly now and then but make-up for my abstinence of tobacco with a double dose of alcohol. I would recommend to all to quit smoking as my mind is alot clearer. Memory has improved and I have a little more control over she who must be obeyed.
Tolerant1, I do not know about the death of money, having never in my lifetime experienced it. But, for the human creature, death is nature's warning to tell you to slow down. A double gulp and no puffs to ya.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:38 - ID#261118)
Skin-E... your 21:51... Get real skin... lots of folks here would have you believe Gold
( yes, I sometimes capitalize it ) , is a controlable commodity: herin lies the "fly in the ointment", ( a coloqueitisim I never understood as a fly can't possibly ruin a whole batch of ointment ) ,as there are too many factions tugging at the POG for any one entity to achieve that coup!!! At this time, perception , on the part of the public as to what real currency ( read that as value ) , is , can be noted as Gold's only real protractor.
The overhang diminishes a little each day in both Ag and Au and it will be perception that hammers that last nail in the coffin.
The length of time required to see this come to pass is anyone's guess: remember, Gold is not necessaraly an investment, it is a store of cash," a commodity versus a promise to pay". Gold is not an "investment vehicle", but a store of cash in the event that paper becomes less valuble.......
In short Gold is an insurance policy, which , from here, seems only likely to gain in value.


(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:42 - ID#344326)
Open-Loop and all.....
It's hard to understand that with the surging demand for gold, that the price has not been affected yet. Look at Platinum, you can't even get Eagles of Maple Leafs and yet Platinum drops. Is the answer that the "BIG BOYS" trade on COMEX, while the little guys just buy coins which are now becoming scarce?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:42 - ID#31868)
Open-Loop, Namaste' puff...I can dig ya...yes...I too would glady accept
the relics as payment...uh huh...skinny, Namaste' puff...I can dig ya...the dollar is already is just a matter of time until it stops wiggling...

The new paradigm has been birthed still born...yup...uh huh...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:44 - ID#225273)
Dutchman & Roebear - Platinum
I'm looking at Platinum options for January. They expire 12/11.
350 Call closed at 7.5 points ( $375.00 )
360 Call closed at 5.0 points ( $250.00 )
370 Call closed at 3.8 points ( $190.00 )

Here's April. I'm not sure when these expire. Probably around 3/15.
350 Call closed at 17.0 points ( $850.00 )
360 Call closed at 13.5 points ( $675.00 )
370 is not being traded

Basically you are paying for time with the April options. You can obviously pay less for December, but you only have 5 or 6 weeks until expiration. Come mid-November, these babies are going to start falling quickly in value. The only question is, is Platinum going to make a big move between now and the end of November.

I personally like to pay alittle more for an option and let it "breathe". Sure, $850 is a lot of money for an option. But ...

1. You get to keep it for the better half of 4 months.
2. An actual contract would cost you over $2025.00
3. You're only $15 or so away from your strike price.
4. You can always sell it if it looses half it's value. You would only be out $425 to buy a metal that hasn't been this low since '92 and before that '85.

Anyways, that's my 2 cents. Watcha think?

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:47 - ID#261118)
T'is been posted her in the past but bears a repeat......
In the words of the great Samuel Clements ( a confirmed racist sest we forget ) ," History may not always repeat itself..... but it rhymes...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:51 - ID#334219)
I think BAY has already 8.8M shares out. As far as number of ounces of silver, the 10 drill holes announced this summer tells me that we alrady have close to 15M ounces of silver equivalent. There is no doubt that we will get some good next series...the question is by how much this deposit will be expanded..2X...3X or more...

(Wed Oct 28 1998 22:52 - ID#300202)
Amerika Needs Heroes-Audie Murpy/John Glenn
Same as ancient Greeks/Romans. Wunder why we seek those who in reality do so little? Points to ponder! Kanada hsa no heroes cept' Dominacans who play fer da Hogtown Blue Jays.Do a lot of Bus. with Germans-their focus is race car driver Schumacher. Are they really heroes? Roy Rogers was a true hero. Happy Trails

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:05 - ID#215235)
Been more concerned about black and blue. When will the gold stocks make their next run? They have run up at the close the past two days. Are the hedge funds unwinding their positions ahead of the November elections? Are the accountants spanking them for their folly? Can FSU beat the Gators? JoePa for president.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:07 - ID#16255)
Tis true that I have not put a camel to my lips in a while! however, I have taken up dippin, Skoal stuff. I also feel alot better and can think
more clearly. It takes me 10 days to go thru 1 can of the evil dip but,
I helped me to quit burning the stuff. Doc says he would rather see
me dip a bit that smoke like I did ( for now anyway ) . This boy is in
denial! I would love to have a smoke about now after my 4th rum and coke
( doubles of course )
With the time change, nice to see more activity here on Kitco in Arizona
at this hour.

A double gulp and a teeny dip to you all.
Silver 1 ounce rounds today for 6 bucks! While they last folks!

Best regards to all O.L.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:08 - ID#411320)
@skinny, it always seems to me that things we use and need daily
should have the most, silver, diamonds comand a high
price compared to a glass of water or a sack of flour. What I am
getting out is when golds goes balistic, how can it comand a price
with out fiat money and almost all fiat money will be worthless.
So how will the masses give value to gold when there is no one
that can afford it. With the exception of the wealthy. Joe sixpack
can hardly afford his sixer.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:16 - ID#16255)
The plan would be to buy things like real estate or a diesel pusher motorhome with Gold from the fiat family when the bank is calling.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:17 - ID#215235)
Your analysis makes sense. I, too, would prefer to have some breathing room so April 350 options seem about right. Should the POP hit 375/oz on the April contract by December, what would be the value of the contract? Any other thoughts? Thanks.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:20 - ID#25257)
Absolutely...JoePa for President! Talk about a Paradigm Shift in the Whitehouse. Gold will of course fluctuate until things look very very bad indeed...and then, and only then it will rise rather rocketishly.
The Thugs, err I mean the Noles have a definite edge in Okey Dopey Stadium; but their real edge is the new short little Water-boy from some place in 'Bama ( Bubbaland ) who chews gum like sixty, and runs around saying, "Whaddu I do now Daddy?"

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:24 - ID#333126)
japan deflation keeps on truckin'

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:24 - ID#350145)
tax loss selling for canadian shares
november is a good month to pick up tax loss selling deals. people do not wait until the last day in dec to take their losses, in fact it seems to me there has already been a pick up in canadian mining stocks. certainly winspear and argentina gold are focusing attention on the mkts and many people, myself included, think we made our botttom ( i am perpared to eat my words ) so tax loss selling may finish eaarly this year as we continue to base and people get increasing confidence to step into the mkt. there are still some great bargins, but it seems to me less and less each day. almost unnoticed, corner bay ( hope you got some carmac ) has almost tripled in the last three days. the metals seem to me stuck between a bottom on the downside and massive technical damage on the upside, so they churn. i have always liked silver better than gold on the upside and would not be surpeised to see it go alone.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:25 - ID#433172)
I haven't smoked a cigarette for 26 years or so but I never quit smoking, just couldn't, no will power. I sort of tricked myself by rolling up some Yarrow ( common mil-foil ) and toking on that whenever I just had to have a smoke. Worked OK for me, just lost interest over a months time, it's not at all addictive. Tastes fine, smoke curls, very satisfying. Costs nothing, grows all over thwe temperate zone.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:36 - ID#219363)
Golden Investments
Just checking out the different ways you can invest in gold and thought I'd post some of the ways I've thought of. I'm sure others here have ways of investing in the metals that I don't even know about, maybe they'll add their comments and give trading advice to us all. I'm interested in what pays off the most when gold makes a move up in the long term, things that are paid for in cash w/o margin.

PHYSICAL: The stuff that gleams and is pretty. Comes in coins, slugs, grains, bars, dust, and even little pigs out of south-east asia. Also comes in jewelry with which to decorate your beloved.

PHYSICAL ON MARGIN: At least one person here knows all about trading physical on margin because his company sets up accounts for it. I don't know that much about it except that it lets you leverage moves in gold, thus making ( and losing ) more money on moves in the metal.

COLLECTIBLES: Trading rare, old and unusual gold coins and trinkets.

FUTURES ON PHYSICAL: Traded at the exchange like all the other futures.

OPTIONS ON FUTURES ON PHYSICAL: Trading put/call options on futures.

OPTIONS ON GOLD INDICES: There are options being traded on gold indices.

FUTURES ON GOLD INDICES: I'm not sure these exist.

OPTIONS ON FUTURES ON GOLD INDICES: Again, I don't know if these exist.

MINING SHARES: Buying and selling equities of mining companies. Lots of people here are trading mining shares and they post their recommendations and comments often.

OPTIONS ON MINING SHARES: Buying and selling options on mining companies.

CORPORATE BONDS: Buying and selling bonds issued by mining companies. I really doubt this provides much leverage on moves in the price of gold, but who knows, might be worth checking into.

GOLD FUNDS: Trading gold funds, a bunch have been posted here.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:37 - ID#16255)
George To "coin" a phrase of tol1.. A double gulp and a dip to ya!
I do not miss the function of smoking. Its the nicotine thingy that has
been tough to beat! A teeny bit of dip satifies for several hours and
and helps keep me on an even keel. I do not miss the sinus headaches
associated with burning tobacco. In fact I get all stuffed up around
somebody smoking. My wife still smokes but she takes it outside and is
no problem. It is a tuff nut to crack for me and just not burning it
after 22 years is a milestone for me.

One step at a time!

Regards, O.L.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:40 - ID#252150)
Funny@People mentioning that they can think more clearly since they quit
smoking cigarettes. I had the exact opposite experience. I found that the nicotine had a calming affect & I could focus better.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:40 - ID#401460)
Short Squeeze Definition - Your Money?
"Your brokerage firm generates extra commissions by conducting transactions for the short-seller, by loaning the shares ( your shares ) to another brokerage firm, or by pocketing interest income from the money generated by the short-seller's stock sale. In theory, you're none the worse off for having someone else trading your shares. After all, they'd just be sitting in your account otherwise. Whenever you want to sell the shares, your broker will manage to have them, even if that means telling the
short-seller to return them."

Who Cares?
(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:49 - ID#242328)
Palladium and Cold Fusion - Excerpts from this month's _Wired_
I just have to post some of this.




_Wired_, Nov. 1998


"Limited supplies of palladium wuld still tend to inhibit his grand
plan. A mine in Russia is unreliable and there's only on other
reliable source. "Stillwater mine in Montana", says Case. "SWC
on the AMEX. You should consider buying stock. A medium-
sized commercial power plant using my process will require
100,000 ounces of palladium and the total supply is only 6
million ounces per year."

"Any production of helium would be stunning proof that fusion is
occurring, because helium only results from nuclear reactions."

"It's ten days since I visited SRI International. I call Russ George
and find him bubbling with enthusiasm because Les Cases's mix
of carbon, palladium and deuterium is now generating 10 parts
per million of helium - twice the level of ambiant air."

"George Milley, who received the Edward Teller medal for innovative
research in hot fusion... - 'There's very strong evidence that low-
energy nuclear reactions do occur. Numerous experiments have
shown definitive results.. as do my own"

"Meanwhile, electrochemist John Brockis announced that one of
his graduate students at Texas A&M, Nigel Packham, had
collaborated on a successful cold fusion experiment. Packahm
had even detected small amounts of tritium, a radioactive by-
product virtually guaranting that fusion had taken place."

"In 1993, Pons and Fleischman described a cell that had reached
boiling point"

"I found myself faced with an impossible choice: either 200 chemists
and physcists had spent the past nine years doing incompetent
experiments and engaging in full-blown self-delusions, or a geniune
discovery of great importance had been discredited...."

"This is a classic Patterson cell. We've seen it take .06 watts
and give out 10,000 times that. But the trick is in making the
{palladium} beads. They don't work reliably."

"When I challenge him on that {claim}, he goes into a file
cabinet and pulls out a letter from Gregory E. Korb at
Motorola New Enterprises. Conditional on a series of
tests, it proposes a buyout totaling $15 million."

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:51 - ID#16255)
Just goes to show that smoking and nicotine affect people differently.

(Wed Oct 28 1998 23:51 - ID#25257)
Election Media Hype
The Media using their best Omnicient Voice are beginning to tell Us what We think about the Anti-Clinton campaign adds, and how We don't really think Clinton's Lies matter. Funny...I thought We cared enough to send him and his entire party packing.