Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:01 - ID#347457)
Oh yaeh, I quit smoking for about five years and started again through my heavy evolvement with Y2K. I guess you can call it "Y2K brought the end of the life as I knew it".

I plan to quit again and hope I will succeed. Brain function did not change when I quit - no surprise - there was not much activity left in the first place ;- (

Lan Man
(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:04 - ID#320108)
@From Coin Universe
New $20 Bill Enters Circulation

Oct 27, 1998

The continuing redesign of U.S. paper money moved a major step forward on Sept. 24, when the new $20 bill was released into circulation.

Unlike the new $50 and $100 bills, which made their debuts months earlier, the $20 is a bill used daily by most Americans-so the new-look currency soon will become not merely a curiosity but a part of everyday life for many millions who viewed it up to now with just casual interest.

The 12 regional banks in the Federal Reserve system had stockpiled supplies of the new $20 in anticipation of the release date, and they promptly started shipping 2 billion notes -- $40 billion worth-to the nation's banks, savings institutions and credit unions.

A polymer security thread, embedded in each bill, is discernible upon close examination and glows green when the bill is exposed to ultraviolet light. Similar threads are incorporated into the other new bills, as well -- and under ultraviolet light, those glow red in $100 bills and yellow in $50s.

Rest of story at

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:07 - ID#433172)
Tax Questyion
So how does the captital gains tax go; suppose you sell a stock for $100 more than you paid for it. How much loss is it necessary to take on another stock to nuetralize the tax liability?

I got a few winners and plenty of losers to chose from. I intend to buy my losers right back..that OK?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:12 - ID#411259)
..... George .....

Dollar for dollar write off.

Losses against capital gains.

Uh Huh

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:18 - ID#190411)
What's the latest availability on platinum?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:18 - ID#225273)
Let's see. If an April 350 call reached 375 by December and you paid $850 for the option... Depends on a few factors.

1. For plantinum, $1=$50.
2. The deeper into the money an option is, the more it "acts" like a futures contract ( i.e. $1=$50 )
3. As the volatility of a market increases, so does the value of options ( because the people selling you the option are incurring greater risk. A great current example of this is Natural Gas ) .
4. Your option will have lost a little value because of time decay.

I would estimate that if platinum slowly moved to 375, your option would be worth @ $2000.00. If platinum spikes up, maybe $2600.00. This is only an educated guess. Anybody else have an opinion?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:22 - ID#16255)
miro... What made it easy for me... to at least stop burning it...
Got hooked on patches and gum to only fail. Then a friend told me about
Skoal long cut straight. I use just a small pinch and it goes a long way.
( Gee, I sound like I am getting paid to say this )
1, 10 pack log of dip costs about the same as a carton of smokes. The big
difference is that it takes me 10-12 weeks to use it up. Extra $$ for
mining stocks and physical.
Not that this is much better than smoking but, it made quitting smoking

There is this funny gene in my family that keeps you from living past 60
if you smoke and allows you to keep trucking to 90 plus if you dont.

As with Gold, the clock is running.

Regards, O.L.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:23 - ID#219363)
Options on XAU
Just continuing my investigation of various investments for gold. Check out this chart, it's for XAU calls, December @ 110 ( XAULB ) . Pretty.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:27 - ID#190411)
Envy, That's good if Au=335.00

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:31 - ID#411259)
..... ERLE .....

Zero platinum coins
At any price
Perhaps in a couple weeks
But that makes it inconvenient
If one likes the price today, yes?

Can still get bullion
But the coins....
They be gone


(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:32 - ID#401460)
ong Kong
Hang Seng

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:33 - ID#190411)
Do dealers take orders at this price today?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:35 - ID#25490)
Where would you be without the letter n?
If I had a nickel for every time Pons Feischmann's been trashed...

The gold market values paper gold differently to physical gold. Surely, the only market that matters is the one that YOU can participate in.
If my dealers say they have run out of gold, what possible comfort is it to me if "gold is now priced at US$290 or US$5m per oz?

This is the real market. The physical market..
The market of delivery of physical between us, the human beans.

Gidday Limey

The "En" Liberation Movement ( aka the en, el, em ) is getting active and quite hostile. I am concerned that, once commenced, battle with the "steenking rat-pig enists" could be vicious indeed. The en el em has been very successful soliciting funds and, unless yourself or Syd Snail can think of something very soon, I am afraid I shall be overcome!!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:45 - ID#293423)
Weren't you asking if CNI was for real? Don't know if you saw my post to you concerning same. Did you get what you wanted?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:46 - ID#401460)
Starr Expenses

FLASH: The DRUDGE REPORT has learned that the LOS ANGELES TIMES is building a story for Thursday editions that details the "$45 million independent counsel Kenneth Starr has spent investigating President Clinton." The TIMES, quoting "newly released records" says the money went to "pay $400-an-hour lawyers, lease luxury apartments for prosecutors, buy dozens of top-of-the-line computers and hire top-dollar private investigators." Editors have carved out space on Page One for the story, it has been learned. Developing late tonight... 

The media is going to kill the republicans. Clinton will get his third term, before this is all over.


John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:50 - ID#24135)
Savimbi LIVES!
Angolan Rebels May Target U.S. Interests in New Offensive

According to a "duly identified and generally reliable source"
cited by the Angolan newspaper "Actual," Angola's UNITA rebels
have completed preparations for a major offensive to be carried
out in Bengo, Uige, and Cabinda provinces. Among the areas UNITA
reportedly plans to seize are Ambriz District and the area around
Libongos, from which the rebels can bombard Luanda with medium-
range missiles. The source said that preparations for the
offensive had been completed under the leadership of Portuguese,
South African, and Iraqi "experts," and that fractures within
UNITA have led UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi to rely in large part
on mercenaries from Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa, Namibia, Libya,
and Iraq. Moreover, as Savimbi reportedly feels that the United
States has "betrayed" him, he is reportedly mulling a
"preemptive" strike against U.S. interests in Malongo, in the
Cabinda enclave. As of October 28, UNITA had succeeded in taking
three towns in Uije and Malanje provinces, reportedly facing
little or no resistance.

The U.S. has effectively severed ties with UNITA. In an October
23 letter to Congress, President Bill Clinton outlined the steps
he has taken to isolate UNITA. These include an embargo on arms
transfers and petroleum sales to UNITA, an embargo on the
transfer of aircraft and aircraft parts to UNITA, a blockade of
flights to or from UNITA-controlled territory, and on August 18
of this year, the freezing of UNITA assets in the United States.
Russia, one of three official observers of the Angolan peace
process with the U.S. and Portugal, has imposed similar sanctions
on UNITA, as has the UN. All three observer countries severed
contacts with Savimbi in August.

On October 28, a delegation of top U.S. African affairs officials
arrived in Angola to discuss the peace process in Angola and the
neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo ( DRC ) . The
delegation includes Under Secretary of State for African Affairs
Susan Rice, who went on record last month tacitly supporting
intervention in the DRC, as "The DRC should not be used as a
haven for UNITA, Interahamwe, and others to destabilize Uganda,
Rwanda, and Angola."

Under Secretary Rice, National Security Council Director for
Africa Gayle Smith, and special envoy Howard Wolpe are scheduled
to meet with Angolan Foreign Minister Venancio de Moura, though
they have no plans of meeting with UNITA representatives. The
delegation will, however, reportedly meet with a group of UNITA
dissidents who recently split from the group. Luanda has cut off
all contact with Savimbi and is negotiating with the UNITA
dissidents as if they represented the group, a clearly futile
diplomatic gesture, which the U.S. is apparently choosing to

The war in northern Angola, which never really ended despite the
1994 Lusaka Peace Accord, is heating up rapidly. The conflict
was accelerated by the war in the DRC, where UNITA assisted the
rebels and the Angolan government intervened on behalf of the
Kabila regime in order to prevent the reestablishment of a pro-
UNITA regime. Mobutu Sese Seko, the former leader of the DRC,
then known as Zaire, allowed UNITA to use Zaire as a rear area
for logistics. Several factors threaten to make the latest
escalation in fighting more severe than at any time since 1994.
First, the deep split within UNITA means that Savimbi must fight
not only to defeat the Luanda government, but to maintian the
support of his own army.

Second, UNITA no longer enjoys a major national sponsor.
"Actual" newspaper's source alleged that South African officials
have substantial business ties with UNITA, which precluded South
African intervention in the DRC. However, South African support
for UNITA appears to be limited to business relations and turning
a blind eye to mercenary involvement in Angola. The increased
role of mercenaries is another factor which may fuel this phase
of Angola's ongoing war, as are possible links to Uganda, Rwanda,
Libya, Iraq, and other countries. These links not only represent
the continued spread of Africa's now nearly continental war, but
with Iraqi involvement, draw the U.S. further into Africa's
conflicts. Finally, the targeting of U.S. interests, and
particularly of oil interests in the Cabinda enclave, means this
latest fighting threatens a substantial international economic
impact as well.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:53 - ID#25490)
The Harmony of the Peers
Your 00:31, my 00:35
made from same comet-dust

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:55 - ID#428232)
John Disney (Savimbi LIVES!)


It goes on, and on, and on......................

I remember when... my first job was based on the Zambia and Anola border in 1975..... sh*t was hitting the fan then - nothing has changed !

Interesting gold potential in western Zambia, centred on the "Big Concession" Mumbwa District !


(Thu Oct 29 1998 00:58 - ID#284255)
Lurker 700
You'll find the three of them on

First row, second column,
They are the 4th, 5th & 6th links.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:04 - ID#411259)
..... Regarding Platinum Coinage .....

( Or coins But coinage sounds much more important, yes? )

All cannot take any orders,
As they... or we
Cannot place orders
We must wait until
We are notified from the mint
That the coins are now available
In order.... to take an order.

They took the price off my price screen at the office
This only happens when the product is unavailable.
It does no good for me to take offence at the missing prices
They will appear on my screen again at some undetermined future time
We will get buy backs, but I suspect they will be scant at these low prices.

There has not even been enough time
For a decent secondary market
To get set up, as the Eagle
Is but a year old last month.

I can ship coins to all who have bought
For delivery or leverage
These are sacrosanct
As title has passed to my clients

But I can take no new orders - at any price
Until the Mints tell us the product exists, and is on the way.

Have seen this only a couple times before in my life....

Each was followed by an explosion.
Followed by a buy explosion

Sad that the platinum has to explode upwards
Just to equal some of my more expensive trades
By the trades placed in the lower regions
Will sup with the wily profiteers
Of the Great Platinum Banquet
And drink deeply of profits
Earned well and true,
But not to linger long therein
For these profits should be put in gold
For physical delivery
And personal possession
By January of 1999

Had my problems with platinum in the past
Even had a couple with silver

But I can hardly call gold wrong
I seems to move were I saw it would
And continue to say it will
But with no help from me
I, just along for the ride
Just seem to have the schedule
Down pat for the fair mellow yellow.

The lows will hold in gold.
$285 is within 5% of the $272 bottom.
I am telling my clients to target $285 or better
For the buying-o-the-gold.
And the taking possession of the nuggets

I also posted earlier
That silver at 4.80 was sweet
And that I have been buying a bit
It is sweet, yes?
5.25 looks to be the major resistance
But something smells up with silver
The same warehouse stocks
I did not believe last winter
This winter, have me charmed
And convinced that a great game is afoot
And silver is her name.

I can see little risk in buying
Any of the noble metals
At these or lower levels

A rising tide raises all boats
Ebb tide has passed
And the first few tendrils of current
Can be felt tugging at our feet

I ain't gonna' fight it

Call me LongBoy

Indeedy So


Righty - O

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:05 - ID#401460)
Goldman Sachs / Federal Reserve

Wednesday October 28, 11:30 pm Eastern Time

Official US asset buying no support to dollar-Goldman

NEW YORK, Oct 28 ( Reuters ) - The dollar will remain under pressure despite evidence that increased foreign central bank buying of U.S. assets has countered the recent reluctance of private global investors, according to Goldman, Sachs & Co.

In The Weekly Analyst report dated October 27, Goldman noted that official custody holdings of Treasuries at the Federal Reserve have risen by $16.5 billion in the four weeks ended October 21 -- the largest adjusted rolling monthly addition to foreign holdings since March 1997.

Dependence on official buying is worrisome amid the United State's growing reliance on foreign capital to finance a record current account deficit, it said.

``Intuitively, this means the United States must finance its growing current account deficit with speculative portfolio flows, rather than through more stable foreign direct investment,'' Goldman said.

It also said the official buying coincided with the sharp dollar selloff and may reflect a desire to slow the erosion in the greenback's value. A big upturn in official buying of U.S. assets between 1995 and 1997 was largely motivated by a desire to drive up the value of the dollar, Goldman noted.

``Perhaps, Asian and European central banks are unwilling to tolerate too rapid currency appreciation ( and a tightening of their domestic monetary conditions ) so they stepped in to fill the financing gap,'' Goldman said.

Goldman contended dollar volatility will remain high as stress on financial institutions remains a global investment theme -- despite the apparent willingness of foreign central banks to offset swings in private investment.

It recommended staying short dollar/mark, looking for a retest of the 1.5875 20-month low and, ultimately, for a fall to its three-month forecast of 1.48. Dollar/yen should be sold at 122, or on a one-day close below 115 for a possible test of the 109 level.
Why is it that all of the important stories are released after midnight USA? - the presses?


(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:08 - ID#433172)
Yes thankyou and I felt a whole lot better too. I ordered some Pt coins from them about the middle of the month and am on pins and needles till I get them, wespecially since there is a scarcity of supply. Thanks again.

RJ- Thanks for the tax info

MIro- Hard to quit uner any circumstances, except for a friend of mine who found it easy to quit three times a week... Try the Yarrow switch ( millfoil ) roll it up on papers or a pipe, works good.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:09 - ID#257312)
Mutual Fund Cash Levels Vs S&P 500 Chart

This is interesting. Mutual fund cash levels
vs S&P 500 from 1989 to present. Lowest level now in 10 years.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:13 - ID#350145)
@Highrise re Los Angeles Times
the times is a conservative to moderate paper, and i don't think they are going to lie. and if what they are saying is the truth, don't you think we should all know it?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:14 - ID#411259)
..... Saltyen .....

Likewisen borne dusten



(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:14 - ID#16255)
Looks like a picture of a poster child for leverging in the markets to me.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:17 - ID#219363)
Cash level didn't seem to go back up after the top, scary.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:26 - ID#25490)
Free the en --- Free the en----Free the en-----

There has been an overwhelming response to yesterdays post, thank you to all contributors whove reached into their pockets. And Special Thanks to the United Nations for a generous grant that has enabled the establishment of an EN Commission whose single goal is the elimination of enism from the world.

This generous grant has subsidised the employment of a Think Tank of Researchers whose first fruits, it is my pleasure to reveal.

Enism is a subtle and terrible form of discrimination. Each time en is deleted from a browser location ANOTHER en is added to the lost ens of the universe. There are currently thousands of unattached ens lying unwanted and unloved in cyberspace. The EN Commission, ever practical, sees these orphan ens as a source of possible future income. ( or encome for the purists )

The EN Commission has engaged the assistance of two other printers measurements, the el and the em in this fight. For, it has been said, If you dont fight for the rights of your brother lost in cyberspace, who will fight for your rights?

The el, the em, and the en all have their rightful places in the world of prefixes. For those unsure, the measurement el is the width of the letter l, the em is the width of the letter m and, it follows, that en is the width of the letter n It is axiomatic in the world of printers measurement that the alphabetical sequence el em and en is replaced with el en and em when ranking measurements in ascending order.

Hence, en is a brother to both el and em, occuring between them. Both el and em have enroled in this enterprise, and their elevation to employment for this cause should be duly noted. The el and em are more militant than their brother en.

Which leads us to hyphens, particularly the width of a hyphen. There are 3 hyphens on your keyboard, the standard hyphen, which is an en hyphen, a shorter hyphen the el and a longer one the em ( often called a dash because it wears a jauntilly-tilted beret ) .

If you write golden-eagle, with the standard en hyphen, then the blatantly discrimination of enism is immediately apparent because en is added after gold and before eagle.

If you write goldeagle, with an el hyphen, there is no added en but the link doesnt work. ( You could always change the el to an en hyphen in your web browser ) Similarly if you write goldeagle with an em hyphen, there is no added en but again the link doesnt work.

This is blatent and despicable enism. It has gone far enough. The En Liberation Movement, hereinafter called the En El Em, will systematically boycott all words, using En El and Em if our demands are not met.

ALL HAIL THE ______EN______EL______EM________

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:44 - ID#401460)

Yes we should know the truth. The whole truth, the whole story, not just parts of the truth - half truths. Let's also see them mention all of the convictions Starr has obtained.

As all should know, I dearly love attornies at $400 per hour, but let's also talk of Clintons tax payer paid lawyers at $400 per hour.

Let's talk of the huge computer staff Clinton created in the White House when he first took office. Lets talk of the $50,000.00 software that was purchased for the christmas card list...sure, everyone knew at the time it was for a huge data base for the Democratic party and paid for by the US taxpayer; and, this occurred, coincidently, just before they got the FBI files.

Lets talk of the cost of China Gate, and other trasonist acts. Technology lost to the enemy in exchange for a few million in their pockets. Let's have the whole truth on this story.

Let's have the entire truth of how one man and his crooked kronies have caused the tax payers of America millions and probably billions in legal fees and kickbacks.

And I am in favor of revealing the truth as to why Starr and the Republicans dropped the Whitewater related matters. Could it be Iran Contra/drugs for arms, Oliver North/ Reagan, Bush/Clinton...Goldman Sachs/Chase/The Fed/Rockefellers..etc. etc.

So much bull sh*t it makes one sick. But the average guy on the street doesn't give a Da*m.
Did you see Jay Leno tonight, people on the street were ask questions. They didn't even know who John Glenn was. In the past they didn't know where Canada was or who the Vice President is. The People have been dumbed down to the point that they believe anything they don't know the difference or even care. All they want is a free meal and ggod times for ever.

Good Night All

John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:46 - ID#24135)
Silver leads the way ..
To all ..
If you track Silver in Swiss francs, you can see that
it approached solid support at 6 francs and has now
turned up.
It seems to have completed a wave 5 downward
sequence. I would assume first target is 7.35 Swiss
or about $5.4.. The gold silver ratio has also completed
a 5 wave cycle. For the intermediate term, I would
assume Ag to outperform gold.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:48 - ID#280214)
Who Cares? - in your post of 19:18 we're nuts either way - but we can win!
1} You state: "If the price of gold is not fixed,
then we look like raving nutcases that believe cold fusion works."
2} I'll add: If the price of gold IS fixed,
then we look like raving nutcases that believe cold fusion works."

What kind of nut would continue to play in a market where the prices are rigged by insiders for their own hidden agenda completely unrelated to the usual and expected rules of supply and demand.
As CC wrote on Oct 27 1998 12:44:
"Annual production of gold is irrelevant in the long term price of gold."
And on the consumption side:
There really isn't any significant "consumption" of Gold. With the exception of dental fillings buried with corpses, unrecovered Gold in contacts and wire, and treasures buried and forgotten or lost at sea - NEARLY ALL THE GOLD EVER MINED IS STILL IN "USE" as jewelry, bullion, or collectibles. Unfortunately Gold is no longer used for commonly circulating coinage which is as intended by those who do not wish Gold to be democratically held by the masses but, rather, held and controlled by an elite group of insiders. Goldbugs have been relegated to competing for leftovers left behind by the great beasts that run this jungle. But there is an alternative. LIKE A PLAGUE OF INSECTS, GOLDBUGS could take tens of thousands of tonnes out of the hands of these beasts and put it ounce by quarter ounce into billions of pockets and purses. This must be done before the beasts realize what is happening and again ban private ownership of Gold other than for wedding rings and dental fillings.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:50 - ID#280214)
By the way - Cold fusion does work!
And Goldbugs can overcome the insiders who now rule this market!
But we must do so as the plague of locusts I described below.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:51 - ID#24135)
hey high rise ..
you forgot the bunch of tomahawks
he fired off to get his @ss off the
front page .. that qualifies the
rat as a terrorist .. I cannot
stand him .. really " hope not
hatred for kosovo" .. I just
puked in my boots. Who writes that

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:56 - ID#25490)
Now, I read the other day that the citizens of Continental India ( for India is not one country, but a score, with half a hundred living languages and a gross of cultures ) actually hold 9,000 tonnes of gold. That's about 7% of total world mined supply of 132,000.

Got REAL gold numbers?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 01:56 - ID#386245)
Did YOU know
--that one Zolotnik is equal to 3.2873457 Scruples???

--that one Dram is equal to 1.772 Dynes???

Can YOU convert metric to Avoirdupois to troy in an instant???


Just send $49.95 to Nick@C and....errr...OK....JUST FOR KITCOITES...
here is a FREE ten year trial...

Don't forget to bookmark!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:04 - ID#25490)
How many thousand tonnes make up Relics and Antiquities? How many more adorn the ring fingers of those who've jumped over the broom together? Have been given as necklaces and lockets? Keepsakes and nicknacks?

Take away the 35-40,000 tonnes of "official gold stocks" ( assuming Ft. Knox's gold hasn't been smelted into Korean pigs ) the 15,000 +tonnes of modern gold coins...

Ain't much left after Nick@C's leetle stash.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:04 - ID#350145)
Disney re silver
i agree with you, but i have to say it is more a gut feeling and general fundamentals. i have absolutely no understanding about these comex warehouse stocks except they are low. i am up to my eyeballs in silver stocks, most of which are still right smack on the bottom. if you have any knowledge about the stocks i sure would be interested.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:05 - ID#252150)
I read of a survey done a few years ago asking a random sampling of
Americans to point out the U.S. on a globe. Barely 50% were able to do so.

A neat restaurant sign in Titusville Fl. "Astronauts over 72 eat here free".

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:06 - ID#280214)
Who Cares? - your 23:49 on Palladium & cold fusion
Who makes palladium coins other than the Chinese ( if they still do ) ?
According to
Palladium is harder than either Silver and Gold and thus even at .9999 purity could be hard enough for durable coinage. Does anyone have more such info on Palladium coins?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:07 - ID#350282)
Something's afoot
And it's at the end of my leg.

My wife is voting ( shh don't let her parents hear this - it would ruin their conceptual anchor points ) libertarian ( she says "the candidate makes sense" ) and republican ( "well they are the best candidates compared to the others" ) She's always voted Dem before...

The en's will never be free - unless the Bart gods will it!

I've got a funny feeling about tomorrow LT, it's just too damn quiet.

Making reservations for Amsterdam, Brussels, Milan and Geneva ( last summer euro trip before TSHTF. ) Gots ta visit la famille/famiglia ya know ( well in-laws... ) Haggis - what does McLaughlin & McNeal mean?

Hi Skwirl : )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:14 - ID#386245)
The Perth Mint made some very nice one oz palladium coins. Haven't seen any the last few years though. They came in hardwood display boxes in proof condition. Real purty too!! I've got a few and am saving them for when palladium becomes extinct.

enauracious has probably got a stack of 'em!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:22 - ID#401460)
AURIC - S&P/ Mutual Fund Cash


This is worth a ton, tells it all. Look out below. What are they going to use for cash when their investors decide to head for the door? This is proof of the leverage across the board with the small guys money.

Makes one wonder how much the funds are really down. Looks to me like it wouldn't take much for them to collapse and be insolvent.

Let's have the TRUTH!

Thanks for the URL, it is a good undistorted view of the S&P, the vertical scale is not distorted as it goes up in value. cmfcash.htm


Who Cares?
(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:27 - ID#242328)
Chinese and Palladium coins
The Chinese make a coin?

Heck, I guess I'll have to speak to the President about returning
some favors for me. : )

I would swear that I saw some palladium coins in Denver about
three years ago. I'm fascinated with this entire situation of cold
fusion. I first came across the "alternate reality" of working cold
fusion about three months ago and I was floored.

It's amazing what the media can do to your mind. Here, check
this out -

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:35 - ID#386245)
Palladium occurs naturally in association with platinum deposits. It is one of the so-called platinum group metals - platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium.

Like platinum, it is a very rare precious metal. The total world supply in 1994 was estimated to be only about 164 tonnes, compared to about 141 tonnes of platinum and 2,296 tonnes of newly mined gold.

Only a minuscule quantity is mined in Australia, as a by-product of nickel mining at Kambalda in Western Australia.

Like platinum, palladium is used in a variety of 'green' applications, to combat pollution. These include its use in the autocatalysts which reduce harmful emissions from motor vehicle exhausts. Palladium is also a jewellery metal and is used in its own right as an extremely precious medium for mounting diamonds and other precious stones, as well as in alloys with platinum and as a bleaching agent in white gold.

The introduction of the Australian Emu reflects a recent growing interest in palladium as an investment product.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
The writings of Tom Heuerman


Project Y2K: Creating An Architecture of Options

And a snippet from the web.
It won't concern me BUT:

"Remember as of 1/1/00 SS checks have to be sent electronically to your bank."

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:39 - ID#284255)
More snippets from the web.
( ----What happens to ss and pension checks that are direct deposits on
1-3-2000? ---- )

We probably won't get them. And, when I call SS to see about
stopping the direct deposit and getting them mailed again, I was
told that as of 12/31/98 they will not be mailing checks - all must
be deposited electronically. :- (

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:40 - ID#252391)
To Mr. Disney re Silver SF Chart
Looked up these silver in odd other currency charts today when Silverbaron brought them to our collective attention.

I am of two minds - one they are very bearish - or have been very bearish - seems like they all are in strong downtrends which have had waves a plenty. Can't imagine there is a Swiss person left long silver.

But when I look at the Gold chart in ECUs I am amazed how that decline fits into a declining wedge as tightly as Simpson's hand did into the glove. The current price is just about a week from the apex of the declingin wedge. This appeals to the conspiratory mind set I have developed lurking here on Kitco, because what's just a week away - the election and a couple of weeks after that LTCM has to roll over some loans. What might the odds be of certain parties holding bad news off till after the elction to help their favorite presidient. And what happens if there a hickup with LTCM and its loans and gold at the same time - pop out of that declining wedge.

I have rarely seen a declining wedge that broke out successfully at the apex of its triangle in the opposite direction of the wedge's direction, in this case DOWN - usually they nose dive like a drip off a nose - however, I haven't seen everything and this one just could be the one..

Who Cares?
(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:41 - ID#242328)
Australian Emu Palladium Coin
Very interesting, thanks for the link. Gad, I had been thinking about
platinum, but maybe I'll buy some palladium instead.

Someone should start planning a Cold Fusion Commerative coin now,
before the rush. Pons on one side, Fleischman on the other. : )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:44 - ID#252391)
Meanwhile on Silver
PAASF proved a good vehicle for the ride today- up 13.4%. The stock has supported well at $5 and jumped now to 6 1/4 +/-. Probably some instituional support from Flenstien and some recent announcement as to increased reserves. With all these silver mines increasing reserves Heavans, if they ever start producing we'll be back into a chart pattern like the silver/SF - oh I mean DOWN. Only thing worse is probably long term SF chart against Platinum.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:48 - ID#284255)
Q: How many people does it take to change a light bulb in cyberspace?
A: 1 to successfully change the light bulb and to post to the mail list that
the light bulb has been changed.

14 to share similar experiences of changing light bulbs and how the light
bulb could have been changed differently.

7 to caution about the dangers of changing light bulbs.

27 to point out spelling/grammar errors in posts about changing light bulbs.

53 to flame the spell checkers.

156 to write to the list administrator complaining about the light bulb
discussion and its inappropriateness to this mail list.

41 to correct spelling in the spelling/grammar flames.

109 to post that this list is not about light bulbs and to please take this
email exchange to alt.lite.bulb.

111 to defend the posting to this list, saying that, We are all using light
bulbs and therefore the posts **are** relevant to this mail list.

306 to debate which method of changing light bulbs is superior, where to buy
the best light bulbs, what brands of light bulb work best for this
technique, and what brands are faulty.

27 to post URLs where one can see examples of different light bulbs.

14 to post that the URLs were posted incorrectly and to post corrected URLs.

3 to post about links they found from the URLs that are relevant to this
list, which makes light bulbs relevant to this list.

33 to collate all posts to date, then quote them including all headers and
footers, and then add "Me Too."

12 to post to the list that they are unsubscribing because they cannot
handle the light bulb controversy.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:55 - ID#386245)
The coin on the right
is the one oz palladium emu.

Who Cares?
(Thu Oct 29 1998 02:59 - ID#242328)
NIck, you have me going now....
I should have done more research. Look at that. Palladium is
almost as rare as platinum, far rarer than gold, but substantially
under the price of either right now.

Very interesting. I didn't realize that palladium was an alternate
for catalytic converter use.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 03:08 - ID#25490)

Very good

However they forgot:

12 newbies asking where they can buy candles

23 Conspiracist theorists complaining you can't buy an everlasting lightbulb.

77 Pedants pointing out that everlasting lightbulbs would ruin the point of this site.

912 Martinets petulantly requesting all "Flaming" to be conducted on 'Lightbulb #2"

1 Tungsten Filament who is all powerful, it 404's and is a rampant enist.

303 Serious Lightbulb changers who determine when a lightbulb will need changing using Eliot Wave theory.

134 Proponents of Free Gas Lighting.


John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 03:12 - ID#24135)
swiss silver
for jims ..
dont be a worry wort .. to go UP .. first you must
go DOWN .. support was at 6 francs .. the wave 5 down
is OVER I think.. don worry be happy. silver is fine..
lets hope it will carry gold and plats with it ..
and plats won be easy to carry yet.
( if all those guys who wanna buy platinum and cant get
it .. maybe they should try a higher price. )
the swiss chart kept be away from silver for a long
time .. I like it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 03:18 - ID#39857)
G'day Nick...

palladium coins are about PSZ coins...........yehhhh...
thats partially stabilized zirconia... thing would morph as you used
it...crystals at the surface would realign and and give it a super hard surface .....what a great thing it would be to honour the great
Dr. Ron Garvey in this way..........

(Thu Oct 29 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Weds 28 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.74---------------1.41-------------1.42-----------------1.77
( Change ) ---- ( - 0.07 ) -------- ( - 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.02 ) ---------- ( - 0.03 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----3.20--------------2.20--------------1.45-----------------1.35
Silver Lease Rate---2.02--------------3.02--------------3.52-----------------3.40
( Change ) ------ ( +0.30 ) ------- ( + 0.40 ) ------- ( + 0.45 ) ---------- ( + 0.40 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

Note: After Tuesday's sharp rises, Silver Lease rates rose further on Weds.

John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 04:07 - ID#24135)
RSA News
to all ..
1. Just read that the "mouthpiece" union had signed
agreement with amplats for an 8.5 % increase on existing
wages .. I didnt think that was so bad ..

2. Mandela failed to persuade Sam Nujoma to withdraw
his namibian troops from Zaire... what else is new ?

3. truth and reconciliation commission in a mess ..
hit by injunctions from de klerc AND the anc not
to publish its report .. also to be boycotted by
the nats and the freedom front ... Tutu is a great
clown .. but his circus is slowly closing down.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 04:37 - ID#185448)
aurator, I en your m**!
Only wanted to confirm you of my unlimited support re your campaign ( please delete the aign" ) against ( please delete the ain" ) the abusive use of en" not only in the **glish, but also in the germ** l**guage.

Fred @Vina ( en already deleted )

Whataawedo with enivrez??

P.P.S: - no, no, stop, found somethin to replace it: ivre de bonheur, de fatigue, de joie. etymology rules. We are saved. Ndax.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 04:45 - ID#412172)
Thanks for your post on Platinum.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 04:57 - ID#316193)
Some Late Night Chatter

(Thu Oct 29 1998 05:04 - ID#248180)
Cold Fusion Proven & Tested In Siberia for Years Without Palladium
Oris, you can vouch for this fact, having lived in Russia for more than 30 years. The Russians kindly demonstrated the fact of Cold Fusion to me during my first visit to Siberia many years ago. Cold Fusion resulted as follows. After much drinking of excellent Vodka distilled from wheat, plus one hour in a very hot sauna, we ran stark naked into the snow and sat on the the ice. A few bits of us stuck to the ice, whew "COLD FUSION". Once again the Russians invented it first. DAH JR.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 05:14 - ID#290456)
ERLE @ ending diagonal / declining wedge pattern

Sorry - I missed your question on this last night.
See the Elliott description of ending diagonal
and also figure 9 in this site:

(Thu Oct 29 1998 05:20 - ID#252391)
To John Disney
Thanks for the encouragement regarding silver. Actually for Holloween I was thinking as dressing as the Silver chart in Swiss Francs - scare everybody. Think at least I'll put a copy of it on my door - all those little kids will leave me alone when they see that big bad bear.

Hope your right about the wave count. I'll rely on your call on that one. I see move down waves than Pacific ocean's - all down. It is obvious that the down move is very well defined ( under statement of the night ) and that to me spells change of trend possibilities.

I'm long silver stocks. WHY? Because it seems inexpensive relative to its price history over the last 18 years. Excluding Armstrong's 500 million oz under the Swiss airport the available supply seems to be shrinking, and the price action is at least encouraging.

But boy, keep those European currency vs. silver charts away from me - scary!!!!!!!!!!

Can we talk about something else......

(Thu Oct 29 1998 05:30 - ID#39857)
leaving mother earth.....not such a sh!t-hot idea........oh my, can not look...

mitch makes way for some serial spin

(Thu Oct 29 1998 05:32 - ID#386245)
G'day Hedgehog/Who Cares?
Just returned from Italian Resaurant with the family. Seafood risotto. Mmmmmmmmmm!!

Hedgehog. Will have to do some research on zirconia/Ron Garvey. Sounds interesting. As a former geologist ( about 30 years out-of-date ) I am always keenly interested in new technologies applied to the mineral world. Have you any further info??

Who Cares??Haven't seen much of you for a long while. Good to see Lazarus rising from the grave. Or is it Rip Van Winkle?? Those palladium coins are sure beauties!! You can see your face in them. The Perth Mint is also useful if you want to own precious stored OUTSIDE of N. Amerka--for obvious reasons. You could have a wingding of a holiday in Oz one day spending your precious. Don't leave it to your children. They won't appreciate it anyway!!Leave them the house.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:08 - ID#271125)
HighRise..your 02:22 & 01:05 are great data pulls

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:24 - ID#26793)
Singaporean economy worst in 13 years

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:27 - ID#26793)
LTCM hedge fund tells Buffett and others to take a hike

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:33 - ID#271125)
Unsure how to pull on this site but..Both Morgan and Merill had up front and close looks at the books of LTCM in August before the crunch..Apparently there is a "chinese wall" between the trading operations and the IB's that look at the books.Surely however, they are trading for there own purposes.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:33 - ID#39857)
check these sites out Nick........
if you want to return to mother earth make sure your covered from head
to toe in this sh!t.....better still......make a slip cast glider out of it....
bit more aerodynamic than the shuttle tank.....know what I mean....
about its lousy lift to drag ratio......1.5 hahahahahaha

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:34 - ID#34883)
short ditty on politic

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:34 - ID#43349)
Globex showing no clear direction. Neither are bonds. Dollar down, PM's amd oil up.

PM's will likely follow dollar inversely untill whatever the next spark is.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:35 - ID#26793)
China closes all foreign exchange operations except the central bank

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:36 - ID#43349)
Dealers suspect silver squeeze...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:39 - ID#26793)
Newmont news

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:42 - ID#26793)
Battle Mountain news

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:43 - ID#287370)
@ Nick in Cairns
G'day, mate! To which shiny palladium beauties are you referring, and where do you get them? Not the ballerinas, are they? Thanking you in advance for the info.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:46 - ID#119358)
@ Lucky PuffOs...........LPMFY............
Lucky PuffO Means FINE YarrOw.......ohmy. ( puff ) ....hmmmmmmmmmm..... ( puff ) .......What is this shat, GeOrge?
Will it killya'? nope.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
Dollar lower on bearish forecasts and Brazilian worries.

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:54 - ID#287370)
@ Nick (C)
just scrolled down to the Perth Mint URL you gave. How much Pa
does an Emu contain and what's the cost? Thanks again! Best! CB

(Thu Oct 29 1998 06:54 - ID#288466)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:00 - ID#288466)
Gold looks like a stochastic buy here...silver still lookin' good.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:12 - ID#386245)
Crystal Ball
I believe that the palladium emus are .999, therefore one oz pure. I'm not sure if they are still being minted. I have bought them at distress sales for spot + 5%. The Mint would sell them for considerably more, if at all!! I will trade you for an equal amount of rhodium. Cheers, N.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:14 - ID#7835)
I can't seem to get updated graphs. Is something happening.
Does anyone know the address to the alternate site that
Kitco was using recently.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:20 - ID#213135)
Silver Wedge
Jims and Silverbaron have mentioned the developing wedge. For those interested I've included that chart. A strong close thru the top of the wedge ( 5.25 ) is a buy or a drop to the botttom of the wedge is a buy ( 4.40 ) .

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:25 - ID#45173)
Dead calm. The water on the lake is glass. Behind it, beyond the mountains, the sky is orange-black, even though the dawn passed hours ago. Can you hear the wind? Off in the distance on the other side of the mountains, hangingn over trees bright yellow and red with Autumn color, a roiling mass of darkness.

We wait.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:25 - ID#288466)
APH @ Silver Wedge

APH - Nice chart! Actually, I had only noticed the wedge in the Euro currencies - completely missed it in terms of USD. Thanks very much for your help - I always take your point of view very seriously.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:26 - ID#350145)
APH thanks for chart
i am reak weak when it comes to technical interpretation. i have felt this was a wedge caused by a bottom on down side and massive technical damage on upside. i wanted to ask you if you can also see a double bottom in that chart. thanks.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:32 - ID#45173)
So darn cheap I'm thinking of buying some. Doesn't most of it come from Russia? At the first sign of trouble from Russia's unfed and unpaid army, I'd expect platinum to rise fast. On the other hand, maybe the current price of platinum shows that the market expects a recession in manufactured goods that use the metal and that current inventory is more than sufficient to cover falling demand.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:36 - ID#72316)
Now that's waxing poetic... Very good

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:37 - ID#288466)
mole @ silver

I don't really see a double bottom on the silver chart, but would like to note that silver missed a good opportunity to form a nice short-term head & shoulders top when it recently jumped up.

A H&S top would have been a sure clue that silver was going down to the $4.40 level APH mentions as one of the possible targets.

I have thought for a while that the $4.40-4.50 area was a target because of the trend in the Gold / Silver ratio was due to reverse in that area ( at 70 ) . If the Gold/Silver ratio reverses here ( as I believe John Disney mentioned ) then silver will go up from here, unless gold collapses.

Looking at the wedge formation in the Euro currencies.....a breakout of the wedge downtrend would bring a whole continent of potential trend buyers into the picture....very bullish if/when that happens.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:40 - ID#350145)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:41 - ID#288466)
You want Platinum coins.....we got Platinum coins. Place your, bids.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:41 - ID#35571)
Dead calm prevails at the apex of a grand wedge. APH points out the wedge in silver. How about the oil index and others.

The head of the wedge is the rattlesnake markets with violent ups and downs. Slowly the swings become less as we move toward the apex.

Then dead calm.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:43 - ID#258427)
@Gollum....The old Maxim ...
"Never short a quiet market!!!"

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:46 - ID#271125)
Gas, Undercarriage, Mixture, Pitch, Flaps...eye of the storm

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:47 - ID#333127)
I bought a platinum coin minted in Switzerland. Shooting talers or something like that ,sold by blanchard. Anyone heard or seen of them recently??

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:50 - ID#35571)
On a very large scale silver shows a possible HUGE double bottom with one leg in mid '97 and the second now.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:52 - ID#35571)
And don't let your hand stray too far from the throttle.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:56 - ID#271125)
@Gollum..throttle ..aka Gas..something the market has seen to much of

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:57 - ID#288466)

You might be right about the long-term double bottom.....but it looks to me that it would take one more leg down to complete it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 07:58 - ID#350145)
silver floors and ceilings
in 1987 4.85 was the floor and 6.00 was a "computer" ceiling. i had a bunch of calls at six because we all knew that if it broke 6.00 all the compiters in the world would buy. aand they did. went up to 9.00 or so within a couple of months and touched 11.00 for about 5 minutes. this time around things seem much different - there seems no real upside explosion possibility. but maybe i just don't get whats going on. i just can't figure the upside. have felt for a while the bottom was in.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:01 - ID#35571)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:02 - ID#35571)
Overnight not ALL the streets have been quiet

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:05 - ID#35571)
Here's a more dramatic looking view:

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:09 - ID#288466)
Gold/Silver ratio chart

Note that the current trend ( unless it reverses here ) would intersect the main downtrend at about 70. I'm long now, but will watch for the action around $5.25 which APH has noted.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:10 - ID#288466)
Yep. Looks more like a double bottom on your chart.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:12 - ID#350145)
thanks Gollum
as they say: one picture is worth a thousand words. amazing.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:12 - ID#35571)
Today's agenda

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:12 - ID#287370)
@ Rube
Shooting Talers are silver, not platinum. Used to own a bunch
when I lived in Germany- Schaffhausen, Bern, Solothurn, etc.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:12 - ID#333126)
Gollum @ 08:05
that URL doesn't work. how about you paste that gif file on kitco?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:16 - ID#333127)
Crystal Ball
No, mine are platinum,they were purchased from Blanchard and had a picture of Bill Tell on one side, minted in Switzerland.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:17 - ID#35571)
Try it this way:

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:17 - ID#333126)
US$ looks downish today

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:17 - ID#288466)

Nothing which has some degree of chaotic or random nature ( even systems which rely extensively on computer trading ) forms a perfectly straight trend line like you see on the ECU silver chart.

This tells me that the price is controlled where somebody wants it to go. When the game ends, the potential for gains will be huge. The only question is when the game will end, and at what price.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:20 - ID#350145)
good point.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:20 - ID#35571)
It seems to make a difference if I am in "full text" as opposed to "short text" mode when I click on the URL.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:20 - ID#213135)
I've posted this chart before but it may answer your question. A break out of the top of the wedge will cause an upside acceleration with a minimun target of approx. 8.00.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:23 - ID#350145)
thanks to all-very helpful
it is still the middle of the nite where i live, so back to bed. your info has been very helpful and appreciated.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:25 - ID#222231)
The Bloody Police Raid at Sallisaw, OKLAHOMA. A sign of things to come.
RUBY RIDGE REVISITED? How can anyone protect themselves against our out of control government and the zeolots therein? Get your GOLD NOW!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:27 - ID#35571)
Nice chart. If the pattern holds, we would see a drop to about 4.40 or so in the near future and then a rise to a maybe 8.25 over the next six to eight months, right?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:29 - ID#333126)
thanks for the chart

re: that URL ( I assume you're referring to the one I posted ) - it seems to work for me - you sure there's nothing wrong with your browser?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:30 - ID#271125)
At the risk of repeating others..or perhaps he is a contributor to Kitco

these are not bad shots by Rick Ackerman:

from other of his articles:

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:31 - ID#284255)
Your post;

( China closes all foreign exchange operations except the central bank )

Seems they're shutting the doors so no one can see.
Guadong and what else?

Who's been saying what, to whom?

It was the southernor Nick@Canabeera

// Suspect Y2k Reporting //

by Bill Koenig
Koenig's International News

The SEC [Securities Exchange Commission] recently took its first
disciplinary action against 37 brokerage firms for failing to file
disclosure reports on their Y2k projects. The firms included in the
disciplinary action either failed to file information about steps
they're taking to address their year 2000 problem or filed their forms
late or incomplete. Under SEC rules, brokerages had a grace period to
file their reports by Sept. 21 if they missed an Aug. 31 deadline.

Related Article: "SEC lowers boom on Y2K data"

The SEC is pushing for more accurate earnings estimates by publicly
traded corporations due to concern that many companies, because of
earnings pressures, are not reporting there earnings accurately.
Isn't that refreshing!

Next year public companies are going to have greater pressure from the
SEC to declare accurate earnings, face a greater drain on earnings
because of the Y2k expense, and experience earnings pressures from an
economy in retreat. What a "triple whammy"!

This is only one of many warning signs I'm seeing on the horizon. A
few weeks ago, Senator Dodd asked the American public to put pressure
on medical device manufacturers to reveal which of their products
could falter or fail due to Y2k-related glitches. He said of the
approximately 3700 companies contacted, only 1700 or so responded to
requests for information.

Also, in Senator Dodd's 3rd Quarter Congressional Report Card on Y2k,
the Federal Government's 24 branches rated themselves a overall "D"
( yes, rated themselves ) for their Y2k status. But amazingly, another
recent study estimated that the U.S. optimistically will be 85%
compliant, Western Europe 65% compliant and Southeast Asia and Latin
America 50% compliant.

It is well known that software projects are typically late. We have
decades of statistics that prove this. So why should we think the
largest software program in the history of the world, with a deadline
that can't be moved, has even a remote chance of "hitting" the
compliance percentages mentioned above?

This week I heard a national radio personality say that he was
convinced the banking and securities industries would be compliant in
time. I personally know a gentleman doing Y2k work for a major bank
whose management is telling everyone they will be compliant. ( This is
a huge bank. ) He is doing the actual Y2k work and saying they
absolutely *won't* be fixed on time! And what will the impact be
from the non-compliant international banks who are part of the $3
trillion plus in electronic payments moved around the world each day?

How can one even come up with an accurate understanding of Y2k
readiness if companies are not accurately disclosing where they are in
the Y2k repair process? The bottom line is WE DON'T KNOW, so you need
to be prepared!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:32 - ID#333126)
ooh... yeah... die Nikkei die... hehe

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:36 - ID#213135)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:42 - ID#288186)
Latest ECI numbers and Jobless claims...
08:32 SERVICES ECI UP 1.3% IN Q3.
08:32 BENEFITS UP 0.8% IN Q3.
08:32 WAGES UP 1.2% IN Q3, MOST SINCE 1990.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:47 - ID#270253)
Buffett is usually right
I have no expertise in silver, but I have followed Warren Buffett over the last ten years or so. Some of his best trades look bad for the first year or two ( eg. Soloman Bros./US Air ) and then take off. When people question his judgement in newspapers, that is the time to buy. This may have been the case with silver this year. I never second guess a guy who made his billions in the stock market. It is not that easy to do.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:49 - ID#35571)
I like that part about ammo for the inflation hawks. Once we get enough ammo we can go looking for JP.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:52 - ID#35571)
@Mike Stewart
I know what you mean about it being not easy to make billions in the stock market. I know I've tried and it hasn't worked. But then, I'm not from Omaha.

I do have relatives in Nebraska, though, does that count?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:54 - ID#35571)
No, everythings fine. I was just referring to my own tests of the URL I had posted.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:56 - ID#288186)
Gollum; JP is strong in his convictions, and others are too.
I'm still open to the possibility of massive deflation here in the U.S.
but I still can't see it, especially when we get economic numbers like
these. Time will tell. One thing can be said for certain ( almost certain ) .
The U.S. stock market is overvalued and the Precious metals markets are

(Thu Oct 29 1998 08:59 - ID#271125)
@ravenfire..MSDW yen view..though I am not happy about their views
implication for gold if $/yen is the most contributing factor these days

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:01 - ID#333126)
more on China's ITIC's

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:01 - ID#271125)
the MSDW site..

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:01 - ID#35571)
Trick or treat

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:05 - ID#119358)
@Pete.O y sharefinO..........
Pete.O.....yup, they're killin' us Okies off one by one....Reno must've been jilted by an Okie.lezbo somewhere along da' way....Ima' deadman postin'. Salud!!!! thanks for da' memories, man.

sharefinO....... iza' NickO puffin' dem Lucky PuffOs too? Mellow-Yarrow....ohmy. me? I like dat' catnip laced with oregano. yumyum. Salud!!!

GO GOLDBUGS!!!! off to pump oil.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:11 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 174.911 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 293.500 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 175.119 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 293.150 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0191 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0600 US Dollars

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:16 - ID#258427)
The 800 lb gorilla....
is sitting on gold this morning....Yen up over 1.5% ...dollar down in getting squsssshed....

Somebody "goose" that gorilla...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:36 - ID#316256)
Platinum, Paper money, and Natural Gas
If you guys are having trouble finding platinum coins give Russ Savage at Jefferson Coin and Bullion a call. I am sure he has some in stock. His number is 504-837-3033 or 1-800-593-2585.

Went up to the cafeteria for lunch yesterday and gave the cashier one of those new $20 bills. Told her I was going to give her some monopoly money for my lunch. She laughed and then said that it looked like anyone could print one of these. Well that got me thinking. We have often talked about limitations the treasury would have in printing enough money. Well what if they changed the money so that it would be easier to subcontract to someone to print more money. Who says the treasury is the only ones allowed to print currency. Couldn't the treasury subcontract out to print more money?

Next item. Got a letter from my natural gas supplier. They are going to ask the utility board for a 6% rate increase. Can anyone find me a chart that shows natural gas prices going back 4 or 5 years. Thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:44 - ID#290172)
FT-Thursday October 29, 1998 Paris Club-Bosnia in debt agreement

"Bosnia and the Paris Club of sovereign creditors agreed yesterday [Oct 28] to reduce by some $1bn the country's debt of more than $1.5bn, the international body overseeing the Bosnian peace process said."

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:50 - ID#31868)
Polls huh...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...The best news the dirbags can manufacture...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:51 - ID#288466)
Off topic (but interesting)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 09:52 - ID#333126)
69th anniversary of an historic event
how did that day play out so long ago?

wonder how today will......

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:14 - ID#25295)
get any NEM this morning. still up only 3/8?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:30 - ID#339274)
FWIW XAU gave a buy yesterday and confirmed it at the close,
staying above 73.Bought NEM yesterday at 21 1/2 with stop 21 1/8
This morning raised the stop21 1/2 and put a sell order for today at 24.
Yesterday I added more Hgmcy at 4 15/16 and 5.
OEX stay on the side line until it breaks 320.Still long bonds

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:35 - ID#339274)
FWIW Gold is breaking out convincingly above 295 as well,
we should see rapid follow up at the end of the day.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:38 - ID#31868)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:38 - ID#258427)
I think the gorilla needs another goose
The last one only caused a little gas to pass....; )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:39 - ID#25295)
I day trade NEM only. didnt get out yesterday,but thats working out ok.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:39 - ID#222186)
I appreciate your comments. Pls keep 'em coming. If you have a mo, pls take a look at ABX short term. I'm holding Jan99 12.50 calls.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:43 - ID#277224)
Would anyone care to provide a brief profile on NEM?
Including the exchange and whatever.Thanks in advance.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:44 - ID#31868)
Justice my Island that is Long ass...Clintler, Reno, Justice Dept, IRS...dirtbags all...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:46 - ID#339274)
FWIW ABX target for today 22,calls should start paying off.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:47 - ID#31868)
y'all should read this and then look REAL hard at WHO wrote it...yup...uh huh...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:54 - ID#288466)
Try this link; enter NEM into the symbol box

(Thu Oct 29 1998 10:59 - ID#222186)
Cyclist: Thank you. All:
I caught Arch Crawford on CNBC this morning. He expects a market pullback to Dow 7400 - 7500 by mid-Nov, sideways from there to the end of year.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:03 - ID#277224)
Thanks much!!!!!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:03 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 174.911 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 293.500 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 175.119 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 28 Oct 1998 ) : 293.150 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0057 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0450 US Dollars

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:12 - ID#430260)
Gold at $450?
Does anyone here really believe we could ever see $450 gold again? Anyone? $350 anyone. $325 anyone. I'm considering capitulating.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:15 - ID#258427)
@Gusto Oro
Where whould you go?? Where is there any other opportunity?

PM's look to me to be the ONLY possibility as of now!!

John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:18 - ID#24135)
silver leads the charge ..
for jims ..
see what I mean ?? don worry
bee hap-pee.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:19 - ID#333127)
IMHO lucky to see xau at 80 this wk, this is a weak move up.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:20 - ID#432130)
Latest Market News...
It does appear "They" will not allow it to crash ( For now! ) ...

Wall St stocks firm, Brazil sees IMF deal soon

Reuters Story - October 29, 1998 11:06

U.S. stocks turn higher after Brazil says expects deal on
IMF aid quickly, sometime in November. Little impact on stocks
from higher-than-expected 1.0 pct rise in Q3 Employment Cost
index. Dow up 33 points at 8395. S&P500 up five at 1073. Nasdaq
up four at 1742. Long bond up 8/32, yield at 5.11 pct.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:21 - ID#430221)
@ Gusto Oro I for one believe gold will reach $450. again
I can't say when, nor can I give any sure evidence of it other than that the world is in an economic mess and sometime sooner or later people are going to figure it out and are going to want gold again - they seem to be starting to already. I bet gold hits $450. sooner than you think - so keep your gusto for oro - it will pay off long term if not in the next months.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:27 - ID#339274)
FWIW weak or strong moves if XAU breaks 74 get out and wait
till the next wave comes around.Intraday breakout was 74.35,
I prefer it to stay in the 75 range.Watch the gold price ,under
295 is a sell at the close.This past couple of weeks have been
a traders paradise.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:32 - ID#339274)
FYI increased stop 22 1/8 NEM

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:34 - ID#235231)
Does anyone have an explanation why NEM is not moving?
ABX, PDG and HM are up nicely in the past 3 days, but NEM is lagging.
I'd appreciate your thoughts.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:41 - ID#339274)
FWIW NEM frequently gets going at the third hour ,we'll see

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:43 - ID#277224)
Durban Deep doing well since 3 Q announcement.Up yesterday,
and also up 2/16 today @3 3/16.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:48 - ID#401460)

They are inflating the economy to keep the S&P line level to up.

NEM has had a pretty goo run since August.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:48 - ID#343171)
Walt re:nem
nem is not moving because I bought some and it is now doomed,
they will probably find that Carlin et al has been a salting scam

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:49 - ID#253260)
Does anyone have any thoughts on BEARX. It has been a poor performer for the last 30 days. Have small position now but it keeps getting smaller. Any and all thoughts appreciated. TIA

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:50 - ID#401460)

Don't start rumors! I also own a bunch of NEM.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:51 - ID#284255)
Gusto Oro
Just like many do not believe in Y2k happening.
And the worlds financial meltdown.

So to do many think that gold has lost its intrinsic value.

But given change and a little time,
We will see these beliefs blowing in the wind.

Between now and the next six months
Gold is an absolute buy.
It won't be this cheap for a long while again.

It may/will get cheaper on the short term.
But this will only be a short term blip.

Your downheartedness speaks of anguish.
Anguish that you can't buy a barrowload or two?

Patience and time are age old friends.
And travel hand in hand.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:51 - ID#246224)
There is a Divine hand upon the affairs of nations
of which few know or admit. We believe that we are in charge of our course and make the road of our travels. Regardless of the intentions of men, their feet are placed in precisely the places which are allowed and no other place can they fall than these. Though they all band together to rise up in rebellion against the Master of History, they can only fall back to their low channel to continue on the appointed way.

There is a parable which we recognize which clearly portrays the picture we are living in: the farmed field. It has been planted, has grown and is now at the very last stage of ripening. The weeds will first be aggregated into piles together to be burned, then the wheat will be gathered together to be brought into the barn.

Every evil and corruption must come to full fruit and brought together into one place .. then the fire will fall. The Tares are gathered to be burned. Do not doubt for one minute that it will be so. All things that pertain to them are to be seen as this gathering for burning. It may not make alot of sense to us now, but it will later. We will see how the Author of History has done this.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:52 - ID#277224)
Gusto Oro
One cannot ever give up the Ghost!!!!Like they say,drive
fast, until you see the Lord, and then back off just a
little bit......

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:55 - ID#269409)
SILVER!! Supply, demand, production (ssc you dog!)
Thursday October 29, 11:08 am Eastern Time

U.S. silver mine output seen slipping

NEW YORK, Oct 29 ( Reuters ) - U.S. silver mine production is forecast to
fall to 56 million ounces in 1998, and then to 54 million in 1999, before
output is seen rising again to 55 million ounces in 2001, according to the
Silver Institute's new report, ``World Silver Production Forecast

In 1997 U.S. silver production rose to 57 million ounces - a 13 percent increase from the previous year.

Roughly 19 percent of U.S. silver production last year was generated by Echo Bay's ( Toronto:ECO.TO - news )
McCoy/Cover mine. Also during 1997, production rose at Coeur d'Alene Mines ( NYSE:CDE - news ) Rochester
mine, as well as several other primary silver mines, including those owned by Sunshine Mining ( NYSE:SSC -
news ) .

But the U.S. ranking as the world's third largest silver mining country will slip to fourth place in the next couple
of years as Australian production surges.

Australia, which ranked eighth in world silver production in 1997, is expected to jump to third largest silver
miner in 2000-2001.

Australia will benefit from the development of the mammoth Cannington mine, a silver-lead-zinc operation
expected to produce 25 million ounces of silver annually.

But Mexico and Peru are forecast to remain the two largest silver producers in 2001, producing 115 million
ounces and 68 million ounces respectively.

Last year was the ninth straight year that global demand for silver exceeded conventional supply ( mining and
recycling ) . Between 1990-1997, silver fabrication demand exceeded mine production by 2.2 billion ounces,
which reduced aboveground bullion inventories by more than one billion ounces.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:56 - ID#235231)
NEM - @CoolJing and @ HighRise
CoolJing - what else have you bought? Just so I know.

HighRise - You are right - it had a nice run, and maybe it did get ahead of itself hitting more than $30 on Oct 8. But then it did pull back almost ten bucks and since then it's been acting sluggish IMO. I'll keep watching.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:57 - ID#147201)
Allen- looking back
Great words. I hope we can work them out

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:57 - ID#31868)
Seemed like a good time for me to staple this to the Kitco corkboard again...
Where there is no dream, the people perish. We must collectively provide hope, and challenge the human spirit. Life is effort, when any individual no longer believes this they begin to wither.

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter-cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter-dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self-imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:58 - ID#350288)

And what pray tell makes you so sure of your comentary. Your assumptions are the same that I have had for the last few years and nothing up to this point has been able to budge yellow rock. Just interested in knowing who your source is and I hope you are right.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:58 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 174.911 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 293.500 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 174.969 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 294.000 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0056 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0450 US Dollars

(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:58 - ID#401460)

I have been thinking of buying more wafter we find out more about Brazil. I may buy at below 6.5, I am presently in at 7 & 8. It is a nice hedge; the problem I have, is that every thing I own is a hedge against the equity markets.

I do still have some normal stock stuff in a couple of IRA's; but if Brazil's deal fizzels. I am thinking of getting out those quick, they are already down 15% this year.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 11:59 - ID#339274)
Look at the hourly chart

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:00 - ID#286249)
Tolerant1--"We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.
OK! Watch this space! {:- ) )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:00 - ID#219363)
@Gusto Oro
Agree with others, Gold is one of the only things out there worth buying right now, because to "buy low, sell high", you gotta buy low. Sure, it could go lower, but how much lower can it really go in the long run. Warren B knows what the deal is, that's why he got out of top heavy bonds, and that's why he bought silver, it ain't rocket science. Buy stuff nobody wants but that the world has to have, then sell it when they want it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:01 - ID#350145)
When you asked about value the other day i forgot to mention atna. probably my favorite for undervalued stocks. did you notice corner bay-it backed off today?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:02 - ID#31868)
SDR_er, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...iffin I turn my head sideways it looks
like a smiley face with a double chin...Hmmmmmmmm...cryptic...Hmmmmmm...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:06 - ID#339274)
FWIW Getting ready for some puts OEX

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:08 - ID#401460)
How about this DOG?



(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:13 - ID#266105)

Rangy quarterly earnings report is out but I haven't found it,
just the news of it. Apparently not well received, adr down 10%,
Randgold Resources ( RRS ) down in London.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:16 - ID#316256)
When RANGY gets done bottoming I intend to buy a bunch. Been thinking about this one for quite a while. Bet next quarter's results will be much improved.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:18 - ID#210282)
Brief post -- On Vacation: Gold eqs. up, markets flat or down
All: Have missed about a week of news -- Lurking today

1 ) Women's vote. Spouse is thoroughly disgusted with WJC for first time. No longer: 'I vote for him because he is in favor of womens rights'. My guess is that the Dems will still lose overall in the next election -- just not as much as the Republicans would like.

I voted straight Republican, or independent when candidate available ( early vote this year ) .

By the way, I think there is no way that WJC is heading for a third term. He may not get booted out of office, but he is a super lame duck. Interesting that George Bush Junior is looking better than Al Gore in some polls -- perhaps things are really getting better, after all. Good thing Hillary may not be able to succeed WJC ( IMHO ) . She is the dangerous one. All depends on whether Kenneth Starr can make anything stick on her.

2 ) Gold equities. Bought more yesterday on short-term bottom which should rally for at least 2-3 weeks. If AG et al hold things together, gold equities should do fine. Will be watching out for a weakening gold equities head and shoulders formation, or a general equities collapse. LT rates still dropping, and I'll bet AG lowers rates very soon -- again. I think AG is now getting very worried about deflation, not inflation. If AG is able to inflate the dollar fast enough to avoid a depression, gold equites will do fine!

Europe looks like they are in bigger trouble than the US, so we can't expect competition from the EURO. I think we must wait for SEAsia to get back on their feet -- certainly not now, with Mainland China on the Brink.

3 ) Silver. Don't have a clue -- but PAASF looks good ( still hanging in there ) .

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:18 - ID#261177)
Help. info on gold/silver calls and puts ,where to buy
what exchange do you buy options on gold/silver

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:19 - ID#317193)
Gusto Oro...$325...$350...$450....
This and more...PMSP.

Modern money, without specie, is being destroyed by debt default...Russia and now by China investment funds. Japan is doing a great job to assure debt default by its banks. Brazil will follow.

Wait for the derivative defaults to kick in...Why do you think banks are cutting back on making loans and the spreads are widening on bonds? Fear of defaults.

Don't bet the farm but be'll never catch it once it and silver. Hedge your bets.

BTW...I still think gold will dump on down to $285 or less soon. If not, I'll catch it at $305 for the ride.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:21 - ID#271125)
re: NEM
RUMOUR only..They are making overtures to Argentina Gold ( ARP in Vancouver ) to acquire. New holes to be announced today and the stock is halted ..sameday as Private Placement for $5mil closed from NEM..who knows..The drilling results may have been made known to them and positioning the next move

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:23 - ID#238422)
TYoung & Gusto Oro...
Brother Tom,

We got to let Gusto Oro to capitulate...
then gold will rise...

Gusto Oro - go ahead, brother, capitulate....

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:33 - ID#252150)
From report on currencies. Would not want to own AU if this occurs.
If the USD has a good day tomorrow & finishes stronger I would like to be short. I will be short:

However, many players have
not abandoned all hopes of large buying orders from a securities house at
the end of the month--rumored to be worth about 600 million dollars.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:33 - ID#284255)
A picture and a page
Can tell a better story than I.

Like any old time oscillator
We have but to wait out the passage of time.

Seems we're still waiting at the beach
For the tsunami to descend.
But many have lifted their skirts already
And moved to higher ground.

As for the source - sorry
Just my humble opinion. ^o-o^

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:34 - ID#253260)
Thanks for your thoughts on BEARX.

Will wait and see what happens at 6.50.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:35 - ID#344389)
Newmont Mining
Earnings for NEM were due Yesterday according to
Zacks est. 6 cents vs 28 cents last year. I cannot find any
earnings report thus far.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:39 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold NEM 22 1/4 stand aside, bought OEX puts ,stop 532

Charleston Gold Bug
(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:39 - ID#344389)
Newmont Mining is now calling for earnings for NEM to be
released Today.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:46 - ID#219363)
Well then kick this pig into gear and let's get on with it already, I've been waiting for weeks.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:51 - ID#339274)
FWIW not so hasty ,there is support at 525 ,526 target for today.
My target 530 was right on,private line to Ruby do : )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:57 - ID#237299)
They really do know the future
Check this feed off nasdaq a few minutes ago. Am I seeing things? It was pulled 30 seconds later.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 12:58 - ID#224230)
A quote from "an ancient book of esoteric philosophy prophecy"....
"The Golden eye of Taurus points to way to those who likewise see. That which is gold will someday, too, respond, passing from East to West in that dire time when the urge to gather gold shall rule the lower half. The search for gold, the search for golden light divine, directs the Bull of Life, the Bull of For. These two must meet: and meeting clash. thus vanishes the gold....."

I've been a student of esoteric philosophy for some years now and regret that this prophecy is not only rather opaque - even when you're familiar with the flowery terminology of the times in which is was written, - but this particular quote is also subject to different interpretations.

My educated hunch however.....Yes, there will be a massive flight to gold - as a result of the unwinding of the world financial screwup due to humanity's greedy mismanagement of its affairs etc.

But it will be a short term phenomenen - resolved by a New Age Financial Order that will finally relegate gold to a purely commodity role in affairs. This process might take years paralle with a form of sophisticated barter.

There are several other references to Gold in books in my collection which I am studying at the moment. In particular some direct advice to study its relationship with the variable star......!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:03 - ID#343171)
Walt - bmg, rangy, corner bay

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:04 - ID#272379)
Allen (USA) 11:51 Post
You are right on. We get so buried in the forest on all of the reasons why this happens or doesn't happen re: the economy, gold and silver prices, Y2K and the implications thereof, the current sad political landscape, et al. There is a much greater arena and it is truly spiritual in it's entirety, scope and priority. If we want to see how the Creator is about to deal with the "manipulators" and the rest of this mess, suggest a thorough read of Psalms 37. It will lift your spirit, and give you the real truth as your foundation to stand on.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:05 - ID#339274)
stop lowered 528

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:08 - ID#333127)
Can't access site will you give the gist of what was posted??

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:10 - ID#339274)
sold the puts,not a bad day

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:15 - ID#237299)
It is a screen capture of NASDAQ feed. Correct date, time, earnings, volume, etc etc. Everything correct for 11:43 ET Oct 29th 1998 *except*
graphs go to the close of day. As tolerent1 would say Hummmmmmmm?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:18 - ID#30345)
And I was begginging to think thing were getting out of control.. not crazy...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:19 - ID#339274)
Nasdaq & INDU
Yesterday's graph

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:20 - ID#286230)
Time to short the C$ again?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:22 - ID#237299)
cyclist: made me momentarily freak, however.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:22 - ID#30345)
just a justa jjusta rreppeat.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:23 - ID#25490)
Please post the source of your intriguing 12:58 TIA

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:24 - ID#224230)
Psalms 37
Yes - good to read that again "the meek shall inherit the earth"...

But I want to know precisely when. So I can buy well-timed calls on gold and make a bundle in the process.

That's why I'm studing esoteric philosophy - there are some quite specific clues to follow up - and a lot of the other predictions stated and implied in these books ( written turn of the century through the 1950's ) has "come to pass".

While I'm studying the subject I'm learning lots from listening to the tribe of Kitcoites.

Who Cares?
(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:26 - ID#242214)
NASDAQ - BUY until 4:00 pm

Great graph. Looks like the high masters threw us a bone so
we can cash in, too. : )


(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:26 - ID#339274)
Safer next month to short,range bound .65/.64

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:30 - ID#401460)
Help-Wanted Adds

NEW YORK, Oct 29 ( Reuters ) - The
Conference Board's U.S. help-wanted
advertising index fell four points in September
to a reading of 88 from 92 in August, the
Conference Board said on Thursday.

The index read 90 one year ago.


Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:32 - ID#348257)
just happened tyo be passing thru. That quote may intend to juxtapose the "spiritual" vs "mammon" - a pastime much beloved of those esotericists of an essentiall altruistic nature. The belief that the materialism of man will one day evaporate and be replaced by spiritual enlightenment is a fond hope held by many. Naturally, they will dispense the divine wisdom when such occurs. Or better yet, perhaps none will be needed, as mankind will have reconstructed its original pipeline direct to the Godhead. Such moments DO occur fitfully and occasionally in the waves of civilization that comew and go on Earth. I doubt we shall see it in OUR lifetime however. The passing of the gold-lust from East to West is the passing of civilization in the same direction. "Western" civilization is now the dominant foundatrion of the world's institutions - especially financial - and herein lies the prophecy come true. But the day of spiritual awareness replacing true money is far from near the horizon. If anything, until such can happen ( if ever it could ) man must return to dependence upon God's money, not his own. That is, of course, gold.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:32 - ID#224230)
The Golden Eye of Taurus
This refers to the planet Aldebaran ( Alpha Tauri )

BEMA Gold - Placer Dome - have a joint interest in an "Aldebaran Property" in Chile.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:34 - ID#339274)
FWIW Have a look at the bond chart hourly.A perfect triangle.
Long right now but have to reverse if interest rates spike up.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:35 - ID#266105)

Bovespa down 4%...$1B left yesterday...$500M the day before...
scuttlebutt is the govt was in buying Telebras yesterday....

Mike Sheller
(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:35 - ID#348257)
High Rise
Help Wanted adds what?

( ;- )

G'day all

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:36 - ID#401460)

Just heard on CNBC that the largest amount of money on record left Brazil yesterday.

May be time for the final exit from the markets

Does anyone else have news on Brazil, in particular the Board of Govenors vote on the austerity measures?


(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:37 - ID#339274)
FWIW we got a sell signal

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:39 - ID#35571)
What time does the dumping ceremony begin?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:45 - ID#401460)
Cyclist - Sell Signal

Sell What? The XAU or the Equity Markets?


(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:46 - ID#25490)
Umm, was "The Golden Eye of Taurus" your reply to my question @ 13:23? Would you please give a reference?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:46 - ID#224230)
Mike Sheller
Trouble with esoteric texts is they can be interpreted in different ways. Esotericists are like economists in this respect - that every thing they say proves they have two the one hand, one the other hand...!

Anyhow - I concur - for the short term ( probably our lifetimes ) gold is where it's at. Which is why I hang out here. Go Golf ! ( esoteric wee game, too )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:49 - ID#339274)
Sell the XAU, BKX broke out to the upside,watch for the OEX
to confirm

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:50 - ID#350179)
Was it the drop thru 74.7 @ 13:26 that triggered it?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:50 - ID#246224)
Gold will adjust for the total excess dollars which have been created in abuse of the currency system. The behavior of the corrections can be relatively smooth or abrupt in nature. In terms of the US$ there have been abrupt revaluations of the gold/$ exchange rate.

To date the US government has balanced excess monetary creation with excess debt issuance. A ready market has moved currency from profits into debt instruments of the government and finally to the corporate sector. Debt itself has been "securitized" into a form of equity offerings. In this way excess dollars have been kept out of the 'money chasing goods' segment of the economy, thus reigning in what would be an otherwise massive consumer price inflation. For a time this has worked. But it has created a large inflation in equities prices and a large burden ( inflation ) of debt.

Debt burdens, which are like sponges of the monetary system, have absorbed tremendous quanities of arbitrarily created fiat US$'s and released those dollars as money spent for governmental programs or corporate activities. The US Sovereign debt now stands at US$5.8 TRILLION. US Coprorate debt is in the range of US$10-15 TRILLION. States and Municipalities *not* included we have seen the creation and aggregation of US$15-20 TRILLION into debt instruments. The US Equities market is overvalued by a factor of at least 2 times, equalling an absorbtion of approximately US$4 TRILLION from the monetary system.

The problem in all of this is that we have an inflated monetary supply which is 'hold up' in debt and share prices. This monster can not be allowed to escape its confinement. WHEN it does you will see inflation in the midst of depression. The inflation will be seen as the increased price of gold and other 'valuable commodities ( oil ) ' in terms of 'dollars' because there are to many 'dollars' floating around free, though a relatively steady amount of these other 'things' which might be purchased ( classical inflation: to many dollars chasing to few goods ) . You will see this in a depression because we have max'ed out our future and can only correct this by a debt depression, which is currently occuring and spreading.

An inflationary depression would look like this: Prices rise somewhat and massive numbers of people are out of work and can not afford to pay those prices. Poverty overtakes the middle class. Starvation becomes a reality. Bancrupcy overtakes all. Goods and services creation drops to near zero. People struggle to simply survive; find food and fuel. For reference see Indonesia.

In such a situation gold and silver would rise in total purchasing power. A new equalibrium would develop over a few years. Debtors and creditors would be wiped out. Barring a turn toward socialism ( more than is currently practiced ) in the USA the economy would stablize and a slow recovery would ensue.

The actual price of gold would be approximately equal from one half to one share of the DOW 30 Industrials Index whatever that number is. If the DOW goes back to 2000, then gold would be about that price, etc. The economic leverage of gold at that price might be much greater than what we would consider $2000 might be worth in terms of goods and services right now. Similarly if DOW = 3,000 or 4,000.

This cocktail must be viewed in the immediate context of an imminent breakdown in the infrastructure of the world's economic and financial systems brought on by the Y2K bug. Such a breakdown would exacerbate the destruction of debtors and creditors by destroying the debt and financial markets. It would exacerbate the employment problem by destroying the ability of corporations to produce and distribute goods and services. It would make any physical commodity dear and expensive, because owners and producers of things would find instant demand for their goods.

In short the Y2K bug will synchronize with and amplify the same effects that would come from an inflationary depression. Such synergy would multiply the effects of both.

This is not a world that you will be thinking about how well off you are because you own gold and silver. It will be a world in which you see death and destruction as portrayed in the engravings which depict the plague in Europe in the 1200's. It will span decades. It will be a time in which every person will be tested and shown for their true nature and orientation.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:53 - ID#224230)
Golden Eye of Taurus quote
Esoteric Astrology ( A.A.Bailey ) LUCIS TRUST page 379. The other most interesting reference in in Esoteric Psychology page 721. ( same author ) . Feel free to email me if this interests at

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:54 - ID#266105)
rangy earnings (not)-- calculated nav 578 cents (rand)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:55 - ID#246224)
Thank you for the PSALMS 37. I really appreciate your words and this passage. Will read it many times and steep in His wisdom which never fails. Hope to be in tune with Him now and forever. Again, thank you!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:58 - ID#269409)
John Glenn / Yassar Arafat
A a short delay for geritol ingestion, it's again a go to shoot John G. into space.

Meanwhile, in further world progress, the P.L.A. has arrested the leader of Hamas for terrorist attacks re the Israel PLO peace accords.

Such positive developments in the world! Now if only they could figure out how to get Arafat a decent shave........

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:58 - ID#224230)
Your bleak prognosis is in line with those predicted in esoteric philosophy texts....coupled with a time of great natural disasters due to inflow in energy from what is referred to as Shamballa Energy - floods, quakes, class 5 hurricanes etc. Nasty times ahead. With no economic activity to engage in, I think my golf handicap will be coming down at least.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 13:59 - ID#339274)
FWIW XAU has to stay above 75,gold has to close above 295 dec contract.
I think gold is now being pushed down again,we'll see if it can rise
Bank index is breaking out to the upside.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:01 - ID#235231)
dropping -
$ 21.375

any news?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:03 - ID#246224)
I suppose that there are many motivations for desiring revelation. Greed is a big, big one. The love of gain IS the root of ALL evil. A root too easily started in our tender hearts. Its fruit is bitter and death is assured if we do not obtain release from its cancerous growth.

Job 28 and John 6 for you today.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:10 - ID#229207)
Sometimes it starts as early as 2pm, but sometimes not until 3:30 or even 3:45.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:11 - ID#277224)
Thanks for the information on Drooy.It is good to have
one more added to the mix.PDG has also done well the
last several days, but it moved up 10% really fast and
would have been not possible to catch at least for a
short term trade.
Sorry, but I am not familiar with atna.???

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:13 - ID#224230)
Allen - Gold calls
I'm hanging out here on the goldforum because in 20 years living in Hongkong and Bangkok - temples to mammon - I have never gambled in their stockmarkets.

I'll be needing money however to pay my greenfees though, and the kitcoite tribe is going to help me improve my timing - so to speak.

FYI - I'll be quite happy when the walls come tumbling down actually. I've been quietly waiting.....every dog has its day.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:17 - ID#224230)
John Glenn

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:17 - ID#235231)
NEM earned $ 6.9 MM, 4cents per share ain the third quarter versus $43.1 MM, 28cents in 1997.

Nine month cash flow increased to $276.8 MM , $ 1.77 p.s. from $ 116.8, 75cents in 1997.

They say they will cut production if the gold price stays this low in 1999.

Well, move, gold, move!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:18 - ID#339274)
FWIW Sell signal,rebought my puts,stop 532

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:22 - ID#350179)
A note for those who scan the paper for fund prices
Computer Glitch Causing Fund Data Errors - WSJ

Nasdaq officials told the Journal that 200 to 500 funds each day may be affected by the glitch.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:23 - ID#350145)
Someone else gave you Drooy because I don't follow it. the ones i mentioned the other nite were corner bay, argentina gold and canarc. atna is a junior .62 canadian that has about 16 mil good reserves and great exloration. i mostly play the juniors and use options and wts for the majors. just luck, but both corner bay and argentina gold have doubled since we comunicated on mon or tues.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:26 - ID#269409)
@ Shuttle Launch Fraud
Though the live pictures appear to show the shuttle lifting off faster than the DOW after a Puetz crash prediction..... why has no one explained the mystery of how they could store enough geritol aboard the flight to sustain life in such a hostile environment?

Do they not know that Steven Spielburg was hired to provide the visuals for this endeavor?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:28 - ID#31868)
ya gotta love the Clintler News Network...CNN...ramming Clintler down the viewers
throats at the shuttle launch...gag...gag...gag...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:28 - ID#35571)
I was thinking more of the prcious metal prices. Today they started at about 11:30 to push them down for the London closing. The next time is usually around 2:00pm to push them down for the NY market closing.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:32 - ID#339274)
FWIW Rebought NEM 21 1/2,stop 21 1/4.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:42 - ID#365216)
US Mint halts sale of 1 ounce Platinum eagles?
Just got a call from a major broker who said that the US MInt has
experienced a 550% increase in demand for the 1 ounce Platinum eagles
since July and has had to halt sales for the rest of the year. Can anyone confirm or deny this fact?

Thank you.

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:49 - ID#377235)
Oris 12:23
Shhhhh! Oris--even the rumor of me dumping my massive silver/gold hoard would devestate the metals markets for months. --AG

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:53 - ID#339274)
FWIW looks like gold closing above 295,see if XAU 75 holds.
OEX performing well target 525/526,LT interest dropping.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:53 - ID#350179)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:54 - ID#288466)
General @ Plat Eagles

Nothing new on their website about it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 14:58 - ID#371229)
tolerant1, I suppose you've heard last week's rumor that CBS,NBC,&ABC where
all aggreeing to downsize their news dept. and buy feeds from your favorite news organiization CNN. Gee does that have anything to do with a move toward a more fascist state, or is this why Jane & Ted had
their falling out?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:03 - ID#339274)
FWIW Sold 21 5/16 at a 3/16 loss,Gold closed negative.
Standing aside and waiting until the close.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:09 - ID#3043)
Allen (USA) @ 13:50
Awesome post.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:10 - ID#31868)
RAN, Namaste' gulp and a puff...yeah I heard...TASS American style for Jane

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:10 - ID#185408)
For a good predictor of gold dumps look at NEM and HM in particular, GGO sometimes too. about 10-20 min before the gold dump there is a dump of NEM - usually in a few budles of 10k to 50k each.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:11 - ID#269409)
SILVER....on the rise....
Wonder what the 98 numbers will show? Hope the trend below continues, though I assume the numbers will not be as impressive in 98 ( as far as
consumption increases vs, supply and production )

Supply and Demand in 1997

Demand for silver was robust in 1997 across all the
main sectors of demand, reaching a record offtake of
863.4 million ounces. Total fabrication demand
exceeded supply from mine production and recycled
scrap by 198 million ounces. It was the ninth
consecutive year that conventional supply ( mine
production and recycled scrap ) failed to keep up with
fabrication demand, which grew last year by 6.1
percent. The gap between conventional supply and
fabrication demand has widened during the 1990's,
averaging 120 million ounces per year from 1990 to

From 1990 to 1997, cumulative silver fabrication
demand has exceeded mine production alone by more
than 2.2 billion ounces. The balance has been filled
with recycled silver scrap and by the drawdown of
more than 1 billion ounces of silver bullion inventories
held by investors, banks, and governments.

The three main components of silver fabrication
demand all had increases in 1997. Industrial usage of
silver grew by 7.4 percent, totaling 323.5 million
ounces. Jewelry and silverware combined were up 5.3
percent for the year, for a total offtake of 280.2
million ounces. Photographic demand for silver rose
by 3.5 percent to 232.3 million ounces in 1997.

The United States was the leading consumer of silver
last year with 167 million ounces. Other major
consuming countries were India ( 131 million ounces ) ,
Japan ( 127.2 million ounces ) , Italy ( 58.3 million
ounces ) , and Germany ( 46 million ounces ) .

In 1997, total silver supply was 863.4 million ounces,
which represents an increase of 4 percent over 1996.
Global mine production accounted for 512.6 million
ounces, a 4.8 percent increase over 1996. Primary
silver mines generated 22 percent of the total, with the
remaining 78 percent as by-product of base metal and
gold mining. Fifteen countries produced 94 percent of
the world's silver last year. Mexico was the largest
producer, Peru and the United States the second and
third largest producers respectively.

Recycled scrap accounted for nearly 18 percent of
total supply last year, generating 152.5 million ounces.
The United States was the largest recycler 43.6 million
ounces, with three-quarters of that amount coming
from photographic scrap mainly in the form of spent
fixer solutions and old X-ray films.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:18 - ID#371229)
tolerant1- Thou art a singular, uno, one-of-a-kind, precious rarity your own d_mn self!!
Good laugh. Others be sure to check's tolerant1 's url tribute to Jane Fonda

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:19 - ID#288466)
This fraction of silver supply should shrink considerably in 98 and 99...

" with the remaining 78 percent as by-product of base metal and gold mining. "

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:20 - ID#31868)
VERY interesting right now******************

John Disney
(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:23 - ID#24135)
rangold NAV..
for Polarbear ( and vronsky )
.. brother vronsky has my speadsheet numbers which
I had also posted here.. I believe my estimate made long
ago is embarassingly close to what rangold has announced
.. do I tell a lie ???

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:23 - ID#31868)
RAN, Namaste' double gulp and puff to ya...
SilverBaron, Namaste' gulp and puff to ya...check ITRO my NY

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:27 - ID#252150)
Pat Buchanan is right@On CNBC talking about the Brazil bailout
he said to Insana "The Banks & speculators don't share their profits with us, why should we share their losses".

They will never be able to save Brazil. They never did save Mexico-just postponed a financial disaster that will now be magnified many times.

The collapse is imminent. It will probably unfold in slow motion with most people caught in the headlights like a helpless deer.

I never thought Prechter could be right-but do now-including 130 POG.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:28 - ID#350179)
Networks look to CNN to supplement international news

It's also cheaper and easier to use more entertainment-driven news rather than complex international stories, said Ed Turner, a former CNN executive now a fellow at the Freedom Forum's Media Studies Center in Arlington, Va.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:34 - ID#229207)
Post from pay site: Oct. 29, 1998
"The combination of an overvalued currency, high debt and convertibility creates a financial environment in which calamity is always one crisis of confidence away."

An Expensive Fix That Won't Cure Brazil

The austerity plan spelled out Wednesday by Brazil will not solve its financial crisis. Nor will a $30 billion to $35 billion bailout package, including several billion from American taxpayers, that the International Monetary Fund is expected to offer to sustain Brazil's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to the dollar.

The economic masterminds of the Brazilian bailout, Lawrence Summers at the Treasury Department and Stanley Fischer at the IMF, will argue that their plan will prevent devaluation and shelter Latin America from the financial turmoil that has wrecked parts of Asia and Russia. But their optimism will almost certainly be short-lived.

If, as expected, their plan tosses a few billion dollars into a bailout fund in exchange for fiscal tightening, it might smother financial crisis for two months or even two years. But, most economists predict, crisis will return because the plan leaves Brazil's irreconcilable financial policies largely in place. And in the meantime, the IMF's piecemeal approach will almost certainly throw Brazil's economy into a recession that may improve the current-account imbalance but will certainly further brutalize the poor and dampen the aspirations of the middle class.

The plan relies on spending cuts and tax increases to cut the deficit and on high interest rates to preserve a bloated currency-exchange rate. The prospect that this will work, says Morris Goldstein of the Institute for International Economics, "rests on little more than a wing and a prayer."

Brazil's financial predicament flows from an incendiary combination of policies. It fixes its currency, the real, at a rate that is at least 15 percent, and perhaps 40 percent, too high. That makes exports expensive, imports cheap and encourages more dollars to flow out than in.

Second, Brazil, in part because of its budget deficit, has racked up huge short-term foreign debts -- more than $50 billion, according to Lawrence Krohn of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities. Total short-term debt is widely believed to exceed $150 billion.

Third, the real is convertible, meaning that investors can force the government to exchange it for dollars any time they want. The combination of an overvalued currency, high debt and convertibility creates a financial environment in which calamity is always one crisis of confidence away.

Policy-makers, so far, seem paralyzed by the prospect of devaluation. Citing chilling evidence from Asia last year and Russia this year, they fear that devaluation will overshoot, sending the real much lower than needed in calmer times and causing needless price increases for imports. The chance of devaluation would also threaten foreign investors, who might grab their dollars and run, rather than wait for the dollar value of their investments to sink.

That could send the economy reeling. So, the Treasury and the fund have decided to settle for an attack on Brazil's budget deficit and the creation of the multibillion-dollar reserve fund to reassure investors that the nation has plenty to spare.

But critics stress the huge short-term debt. Beside it, a $30 billion bailout looks puny.

There are two prominent alternatives to the expected Treasury-IMF plan. Jeffrey Sachs of the Harvard Institute for International Development pushes for Brazil to drop its fixed rate, allowing the real to float on currency markets. That way, Brazil would no longer need to drive up interest rates to preserve the exchange rate.

In answer to Summers and Fischer, he argues that countries cannot save overvalued currencies. In Brazil, as in Asia, an attempt to defend a currency will only serve to deplete dollar reserves. "Once reserves are gone," Sachs says, "investors panic. The worst mistake is for countries to wait too long to float their currencies."

Rudiger Dornbusch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology offers a nearly opposite solution. He calls on Brazil to adopt a currency board like that in Argentina. Brazil would tie the real to the dollar at a fixed rate. But under this system, devaluation would no longer be an option. Brazil would be legally bound to keep enough dollars on hand to redeem all its currency in circulation.

Dornbusch points to Argentina as proof that a currency board can reassure foreign investors and bring down interest rates close to levels in the United States.

Goldstein argues that for any rescue plan to work, it "must be comprehensive -- convince Brazil's creditors to convert short-term loans to long-term loans, reset the real at a lower rate, substantially cut the fiscal deficit -- and only then include modest aid from outside." Some economists predict that if dollars are thrown into Brazil, they will wind up in the Swiss bank accounts of foreign investors, much like the dollars the IMF put into Russia earlier this year.

The only enthusiastic embrace of the expected Treasury-IMF plan comes from Wall Street. Under the plan, foreign investors could continue to collect interest rates of 20 percent or more with a pledge backed by the fund that Brazil will not devalue soon. No wonder they love it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:35 - ID#252150)
If they wanted to send a geriatric into space, why did'nt they send a true
American hero, one who did a lot more for America than Glenn ever did...Bob Hope? Or how about Jack Lalanne. He's got to be 90 now & is probably in better shape than the youngest astronaut.

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:39 - ID#430260)
James & 130 POG
Really? And just after LGB cheered me up. --AG

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:39 - ID#343171)
space case
You would think Glenn was Princess Di the way the media is ejaculating,
a media always willing to help Clinton by any proxy available. I'd of
lauched the slick squirt into space, err a one way trip. Talk about space junk!!

NASA is as much a ripoff as the IMF

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:43 - ID#432130)
Ive said it before and Ill say it again...
...Beware, BEARX is a "Bull Trap"!

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:44 - ID#430260)
"But critics stress the huge short-term debt. Beside it, a $30 billion
bailout looks puny."

Brazil has to come up with 80 billion by year's end and another 220 billion by next year's end. The guy who would say a 30 billion bailout is going to do anything here is the next rearend. --AG

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:44 - ID#254288)
Argentina Gold up about 40% today

Hole 84 plus NEM backing it seems to have sunk in, earlier holes also good.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:44 - ID#339274)
Sold OEX puts slight gain,Xau inconclusive.
Don't like the weakness in Plat,tomorrow another day

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:45 - ID#31868)
Jack's ass Billionaire... bbl..............

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:45 - ID#229207)
Sad tale of a collapsed emerging market bubble fortells the future of other financial bubbles...
Emerging-Markets Investors Get Full-Fledged Drubbing

Just three years ago, it looked as though Jorge Beristain's career bet was about to pay off big.

By Wall Street Journal staff reporters Patrick McGeehan, Robert McGough and Pui-Wing Tam. Oct. 29, 1998

Mr. Beristain, now 29 years old, had landed a job in Mexico City as a financial analyst with a newly launched investment bank specializing in emerging markets. In short order, he became a partner in the young firm's New York office with a stake in its future profits.

"I wanted to be involved in something where I could leverage the fact that I was bicultural and bilingual," says Mr. Beristain, who is half-Mexican and fluent in Spanish. "That's how I rode the wave. I got into the industry at the right time and ... I was making great money."

But Mr. Beristain's wave crashed in early July when the firm, Caspian Securities, abruptly shut down after three years in business, tossing him and dozens of others out of work. "I'd never in my career been laid off or out of work for a day," he says now from his Manhattan home, where he is searching for another job in Latin American finance.

Many other fast-track financiers in emerging markets are in the same pickle, Mr. Beristain says, their careers derailed -- at least temporarily -- by a global flight from risk that has triggered layoffs and cutbacks at financial-services companies around the world.

It's a remarkable reversal: The elaborate apparatus built by investment banks, money managers and other institutions to tap the potential of fledgling economies is crumbling fast -- almost as fast as some of the economies themselves.

For most of the 1990s, emerging markets looked like the promised land. Bright minds on Wall Street were convinced that feverish development abroad meant riches were within reach. Indeed, early investors reaped fabulous returns, and mutual funds anointed emerging markets as the newest asset class investors had to own.

In 1993, when emerging-markets funds earned average returns of 70% -- plus, their assets inflated tenfold, and subsequently swelled fourfold through their 1997 peak. Wall Street firms hired rows of traders, analysts and salespeople to specialize in emerging markets, and rushed to build offices in cities from Sao Paulo, Brazil, to Jakarta, Indonesia.

That's all over now.

Wall Street firms have started slashing hundreds of emerging-markets jobs in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe -- and, increasingly, in New York and London, where companies centralized emerging-markets operations. Several high-profile figures in the world of emerging-markets investing have resigned as a result of poor performance.

Hedge-fund and mutual-fund firms are shuttering some failing emerging-markets funds, and are implementing austerity plans, introducing freezes in hiring or even cutting pay. Headhunters report being flooded with resumes from emerging-markets specialists who have been let go -- or are fearful they will be soon.

Now some former advocates of the notion that individual investors should invest in emerging markets are saying it was all a mistake. Randy Hecht, president and chief executive of Robertson Stephens Investment Management, once promoted the firm's emerging-markets mutual fund. Now he is liquidating it because of dismal returns. In talking to the fund's manager, he says, "I became concerned about the depth of management talent running those companies in developing countries." He now believes such markets aren't a suitable investment for ordinary mutual funds.

"A lot of people who rushed into emerging markets have really been hurt," says J. Mark Mobius of Franklin Resources Inc.'s Templeton funds group, and the man considered the dean of emerging-markets investing. "There's been a lot of downsizing. Every day, I hear people [in the industry] saying goodbye."

In a sign of the times, Mark Holowesko, head of Templeton's global investment group in the Bahamas, says his office is now making sure to photocopy using both sides of the paper. Thermostats are being turned up to higher settings at night to save air-conditioning costs. "The recent rout in emerging markets has really left a bad taste in people's mouths," he says.

Templeton's Moscow office, meanwhile, is in "retrenchment mode," according to a firm official. For the fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 30, Franklin reported a 10% decline in earnings, and, in a telling development, the company says it will freeze next year's pay raises at 1998 levels. All this is quite a change from just a few years ago, when Templeton's overall assets ballooned to $30.5 billion the first full year after being acquired by Franklin -- up from $21.2 billion in late 1992.

Prominent casualties of the emerging-markets debacle include Paul Ghaffari, a managing director at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. Mr. Ghaffari resigned last month after a highly leveraged hedge fund he ran that invested in emerging-markets debt cost the firm nearly $300 million before taxes in the third quarter. At Robertson Stephens, a unit of BankAmerica Corp., Michael Hoffman, who has managed Robertson Stephens Developing Countries Fund, will leave the firm once the fund is liquidated.

As one developing economy after another has come unhinged, more than a dozen brokerage firms, investment banks and commercial banks in the U.S. and Europe have announced layoffs in emerging-markets-related units. Others have taken the more-drastic step of pulling up stakes altogether in some troubled markets. Bankers Trust Corp. shut its Moscow office in October and slashed its work force in Mexico City to eight from 40.

"Very few global-investment banks view emerging markets as core to their operation in that they will subsidize it and keep it around when they're losing money," says Peter Marber, president of Wasserstein Perella Emerging Markets Ltd. "It's classic overexpansion and contraction."

Not a 'Growth Area'

Mr. Marber is quite familiar with the ebb and flow. Two emerging-markets hedge funds he oversees sustained sharp losses in August. He also has taught students at Columbia University in New York who had their sights set on international finance -- some of whom quickly leapt to annual earning of $400,000 or more as bond traders or analysts.

Lately, however, Mr. Marber has been receiving more resumes from former pupils looking for work. His advice: Consider working for a consulting firm or a multinational corporation, such as Coca-Cola Co. "Emerging markets probably won't be a growth area for jobs on Wall Street for a while," he says.

Just ask Neil Allen. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc. scored a coup in early 1995 when it lured Mr. Allen and a team of Latin American trading specialists away from Bankers Trust. Less than four years later, DLJ is doing away with its emerging-markets group and letting go Mr. Allen, who oversaw it, and 19 of the 126 people who worked for him.

Probably no firm better illustrates the rush to embrace emerging markets than Merrill Lynch & Co., which, from 1995 to 1997, increased its full-time employment in Asia, excluding Japan, by 60% to 1,690 people. By the end of last year, Merrill had more than doubled its non-U.S. staff in three years to 10,900 full-timers. In London, Merrill laid plans to build a $650 million headquarters for its operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

As of September, months after riots erupted in Jakarta, spooking global investors, Merrill still had as many as 40 employees in Indonesia -- a sizable commitment to that market. By contrast, most other U.S. firms were operating out of Hong Kong or Singapore, flying investment bankers into Jakarta only as needed.

Lingering Hopes

Now, Merrill is laying off 150 people in Asia, including about a third of its Jakarta staff, and intends to slash more emerging-markets-related jobs in Europe. David H. Komansky, Merrill's chairman and chief executive, figures emerging markets won't stage a comeback for at least 18 months. At the same time, though, he hesitates to write them off completely. "I and the firm still feel that Asia and Latin America and Eastern Europe are enormous opportunities," he says.

Five years ago, those enormous opportunities were tangible.

The appetite among ordinary investors for emerging markets struck home for Rachael Maunder, a money manager with AIB Govett, in mid-1994 when she was making her way through customs at New York's JFK International Airport. When Ms. Maunder answered a routine question about what she did for a living, the customs officer asked, "'What about this Cementos Mexicanos?'" she recalls. She hadn't even mentioned her specialty in emerging markets.

Back then, of course, emerging markets appeared to be delivering on their promise. Driven by remarkable growth rates, the number of emerging markets identified by global investors jumped to more than 40 from only five in just 10 years. Some previously ignored Asia markets were labeled the Asian "tigers." The mouthwatering average gains of 72.16% generated by emerging-markets funds in 1993 convinced even ordinary investors to shoulder some risk.

But it wasn't just the average investor pouring money into emerging markets. Anthony Cragg, a 42-year-old Strong Funds manager who has spent his career investing in Asian equities, says that in 1993, brokers were getting calls from new emerging-markets fund managers clamoring to buy Malaysian stocks. It didn't matter which ones, just as long as they could get exposure to Malaysia.

False Alarm

Profits that year turned to losses in late 1994, when the Mexican peso crisis sparked a modest pullback from developing nations. But because the crisis appeared contained, investors soon piled back in. The assets in Pacific emerging-markets mutual funds climbed to a peak of more than $10 billion in late 1996. Assets of globally diversified emerging-markets funds peaked even later, at more than $24 billion in September 1997.

Only after the devaluation of the Thai baht in mid-1997 did the implosion begin. Its effects boomeranged around the globe, knocking the rest of Asia down, spreading to Russia and infecting Latin America. From their peaks, assets in Pacific emerging-markets funds have plunged 75%, to $2.6 billion as of Sept. 30, and assets in diversified emerging-markets funds have fallen by 51% to $12 billion. Assets of Latin American funds also have fallen sharply.

But some fund firms say now is a great time to find talent on the cheap -- especially if a wealthy corporate parent can bankroll the expansion. AIB Govett, now owned by Allied Irish Banks PLC, is hiring a specialist each in Latin America and Asia.

Matthews International Funds, San Francisco, which specializes in Asian funds, has actually hired staffers from other emerging-markets-related firms that have collapsed. One of them, Caroline Needham, recalls that when she worked for Peregrine Asset Management in Hong Kong, she and colleagues looked disdainfully at Matthews, a much smaller firm, and speculated that it would go out of business. Then Peregrine collapsed -- and she went job hunting.

Money and Luck

Indeed, it has taken deep pockets to survive. Matthews was in such dire shape late last year, fund manager Mark Headley says, that it was close to selling out. Then it had three strokes of good fortune: International investor Sir John Templeton made a large investment in the firm's Korea fund; the Korean stock market surged in the first quarter; and San Francisco financier William Hambrecht took an equity stake in the firm.

Others haven't been so lucky. America Asia Allocation Growth Fund was liquidated last month when its assets dwindled to $2 million from close to $3 million. Manager James Tso says "it just didn't make sense" to keep running the fund at a loss. Sage/Tso Investment Management, in Falls Church, Va., still manages $12 million for clients, mostly invested in U.S. stocks.

Mr. Cragg, who manages Strong Asia Pacific Growth, has watched its assets dwindle to $20 million from $70 million at the end of 1996. But the fund is hanging on for now, and Mr. Cragg is philosophical, comparing emerging markets to a problem child. "You enjoy it when it's growing up. In the teenage years, it runs off the rails. But as a parent, you can't kick it out."

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:45 - ID#246224)
I always try to start from a broad base and then work my way up to the point. You could probably appreciate that, eh? ;- )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:46 - ID#244418)
Gold is mispriced
Everywhere, gold coins are flying out of dealer's stores. Why? Because

gold is mispriced--in the face of a developing y2k fear wave, the government is actually stimulating demand by subsidizing gold purchases.

Yes--the government is subsidizing your purchases of physical gold. They are using the gold carry trade to depress the price; the government mint is charging only a very nominal premium over spot for American Eagles.

When you subsidize something, you get more of it--in this case demand for

gold coins. In addition, by subsidizing gold coins, they are building up

the infrastructure of gold sales as well--that is, gold coin dealerships are springing up everywhere.

If they continue subsidizing gold purchases in the face of a growing

y2k demand ( now reaching only 1% of the populace ) , the appetite for gold

will only grow until demand outstrips supply. Then price goes up and the

gold carry trade shorts must be covered, causing further increases.

But if they do not continue to subsidize gold in the face of strong demand, then the imbalance between supply and demand will take effect all

the sooner.

Gold is mispriced. They're putting money into our pockets when we buy gold.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:47 - ID#246224)
Last paragraph was particularly accurate. Wall ST. loves it because they get their keesters out of a sling and get a chance to reap some more gravey and then dump these bonds onto some poor unsuspecting dumbo midwestern insurance company.

But the fire is a coming. There will be negotiating then.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 15:58 - ID#119358)
@WinstOn........., subsidized....yes, indeedO. I thank them mightily for helping this poor okie out. salud!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:01 - ID#269409)
@ MoReGoLd...Great call on PDG....
Tuesday I took your tip on PLacer Dome to heart, studied it, and put in an order which was filled. Today it's strongly outperforming the SA shares I dumped ( HGMCY and DROOY ) .

Good tip MoReGoLd! Go NA shares...go PDG....Go Gold !

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:01 - ID#246224)
Ted Turner
He must be looking forward to the day he dies .. one less polluter/consumer sucking the plant dry. I bet he rides a bicycle to work. NOT!

His ideas are good intentioned liberalism leading to ugly totalitarianism .. for the good of the race. These people have NO clue. Megalomaniacs. Want to play god.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:01 - ID#389387)
This seems like the perfect "exit strategy" for the "big boys" as well. After all, if you are going to rig the game, then you should signal your buddies to leave the saloon, before they catch you pulling aces out of your sleeves.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:05 - ID#119358)
did you have a dash'o'horseradish on dat' big sliced beef samich todayO? uhHuH.....well, whatever you ate, sure agrees with me. un GulpO y dos PuffOs to YA!!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:07 - ID#339274)
FWIW If plat takes out 335 Jan,we will see a decline to
70 in the XAU.The gold chart is unimpressive to the gains in the
XAU.OEX has now an upside target 535.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:12 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Oct. 29

Gold 827,089 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 72,894,555 - 153,603 troy ounces
Copper 68,941 + 343 short tons

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:14 - ID#269409)
CoolJing...your 15:39 re NASA
Hmmmm, while I was in agreement with all those who thought this John Glenn "feel good" trip was a waste of tens of millions, with no good scientific purpose...

I have now seen the error of my ways and realized, this was a BRILLIANT PR move by NASA. After all...when was the last time you saw a shuttle launch carried live on every TV and radio station in the country?

When was the last time everyone and anyone gave a second thought to the space program? ( Other than Mozel here at Kitco...hehehe )

When was the last time we saw folks puilling over on the freeay or going late to work in order to see / hear a launch and getting all teary eyed over it? Hmmmmmmmm?

See us baby boomers are a bunch of sentimental sheep who take the Crosby, Stills and Nash "Deja Vu" stuff to incredible extremes...due to our, apparently, unlimited self centered needs to "feel good" by regressing to our past.

In retrospect...I see that NASA, through this single move, has done more to solidy their congressional and contituent funding support, in this one wasteful PR launch, than in all the "Real" science programs they've been working on for a decade!

Yes..... we American's...we be shallow..... witness Clinton's poll ratings..... witness the way candidates and propositions are being made in the final days of campaigning by 20 second, lying TV spots......

Maybe we need some hard times to build a little character...bring on Y2K I say!!!!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:15 - ID#269409)
@ FOX-MAN...Silver
Am I mistaken or isn't that the first break below 73 million we've seen in 18 years or so?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:23 - ID#252150)
Gusto Oro@Have you read the Prechter piece in the latest Barron's?
His timing was off. Admittedly by a lot. But much of that can be explained by outright manipulaltion in mkts. Everything that he has been saying seems to be coming eerily true.

It's almost like RR, AG, Camdessus & all their cohorts are actually in a secret cabal of marxists whose sworn mission is to destroy capitalism.

As for 130 POG. If things get as grim as he forecasts an oz will still buy a good mens suit & maybe even a nice pair of Brazilian shoes to go with it.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:26 - ID#347457)
Here we go LGB, despite of many disagreements two of us have, on this issue we think alike. I am around Washington for too long time and how the game is played. This NASA mission of completely PR "thing" which is suppose to improve NASA standing on the Hill and throughout the country. They need it badly in view of declining support and budget. This is suppose to ( and most probably will ) win back support they need so bad.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:28 - ID#433172)
How do you figure loses on a stock if you paid 3 different prices? High, medium, and low. Can you sell part and claim it was the high? and use the loss to offset gains in other stocks.

Bought more Pt this AM, they still gots at $360--1-800-690-4995

My Canadian jrs doing very well for no change in price of Au..equities leading the metal? or what?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:34 - ID#424231)
9000 dow by tues-nov 3 sure looks like it!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:34 - ID#424231)
9000 dow by tues-nov 3 sure looks like it!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:34 - ID#424231)
9000 dow by tues-nov 3 sure looks like it!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:35 - ID#252150)
Allen@That was'nt a very Christian thing to say about Ted Turner.
He may be a megalomaniac & a manic-depressive, but he beat the Wall St establishment, parastiic elites at their own game & I think he deserves credit for that. He may be crazy, but he's far from stupid.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:35 - ID#290145)
vote early and vote often

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:38 - ID#269409)
@ Miro
Unfortunately yes...we do agree. These days perception is much more important than reality.

Thus PR mongering charlatans abound in "alternative medicine" hawking miracle cancer cures for "Somatids" in the blood, .....or reductions in all the nasty chemicals that are supposedly going to kill us according to the "Environmentalist's" ( when 400,000 a year die here in the U.S. from smoking, and 200,000 from drinking, they concentrate on that bad old 1 in a million threat! ) ...., in "Science"....unfortunately, PR has now become the way of life as well in order to garner those all important funding bucks..... I notice AIDS manages 20 times the funding of bigger killers like Prostate cancer.....hmmmmmm

Well..maybe science will still go forward in spite of the politics 10 cents on the dollar in real research, vs, 90 cents political, or something like that!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:41 - ID#252391)
Silver stocks still falling
Comex silver stocks under 73 million ( maybe new all time low ) . Fell 1/2 million yesterday, yet the silver market yawns with a few cents of gain. Must be Armstrong's 500 million under the Swiss airport that is weighing on the market. Most curious thing I've ever seen.

PAASF took a little profit taking today. Didn't quite get to the price I was trying to add at. Really right now I find myself very complacent. The XAU was up over 75 and probably would have been over 76 except for weakness in NEM - yet I am content to wait. Looking at the gold price and PT action what's the hurry to be fully invested.

Silverbaron - fitting tighter into the apex of the declining wedge of gold in ECUs, right???

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:41 - ID#240248)
LGB and Miro You're Almost Right....
This is a great PR coup pulled off by Clinton, probably stuffed down many throats at NASA. A wonderful combination of timing and payback. Remember this is Glenn's payback for his stellar performance at the campaign finance hearings in which he shamelessly stumped for his man Clinton.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:43 - ID#269409)
@ George
You get to pick and choose really. As long as every share you sell, has documentation of a "buy" someplace prior, you can take your highest price shares first, or however you prefer doing it.

Some folks with large stock losses in certain issues, sell off at the end of December, write off their losses, and buy the same shares back in January at a lower price... ( this in a way being subsidized by the Govmnt...yes? )

This is particularly lucrative now that the capital gains tax has been lowered.

Just make sure you have "buy" proof documented somewhere for each and every "sold" share.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:45 - ID#252391)
Dow 10,000 before gold $315
Remains the question.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:45 - ID#347457)
@George on taxes
Assuming you sold it all, you have to calculate real purchase price for the whole holding.

e.g. 100 shares*$20 + 200 shares*$19 + 100 shares* $17 = $7,500

sell price = $16, 400*$16 = $6,400

lets say you paid $200 commission in making buy/sell trades

your loss is $1,300

If you did not sell all of them, you can play with it some more, selecting which part you use as buying price, but the principle is the same.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:47 - ID#233199)
Can we have party favors for the DOW 9000 this time?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:49 - ID#347457)
@Will and NASA
Wull, trust me on this. There was no need to do a lot of NASA arm twisting

Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:52 - ID#430260)
Jims--this might interest you--from silver prices thread on SI...
To: TD ( 1328 )
From: Ray Hughes Thursday, Oct 15 1998 1:26PM ET
Reply # of 1350
TD: Why Trust CPM now when, in the past, their data was seriously
flawed? As you note, no one knows exactly how much "off the books"
silver exists. Silver users require about 4 weeks equivalent of
consumption as a "normal working stock" of silver. Assuming consumption
is running at a rate of 850 million ounces year, the working stock level
is about 65 million ounces.

Presume that there is 600 - 800 million ounces of available silver
stocks. For the next twelve months the deficit may narrow to only a
little over 100 million ounces leaving 500 - 700 million ounces of
available silver stocks. That is, at the minimum, 435 million ounces in
excess of working stock requirements. There is no shortage!

Presume that the deficit rises again to about 160 million ounces per
year as Asian consumption will lag for several years ( for obvious
reasons ) . The arithmetic says that, at a minimum, 32 months would have
to pass before silver inventory reduction reaches a critical stage.

Silver prices could continue in a rising trend, albeit in irregular
fashion, but not present the "buy of a lifetime" until the excess
inventory has been reduced to, or below, the 4 weeks stock level.


Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:55 - ID#430260)
I believe it's first bought, first sold when it comes to claiming stock sales on tax forms. Whatever shares you bought first, those are the shares you sell first. --AG

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:56 - ID#288186)
LGB; I think this is a new 18 year low for Comex silver totals, but I'll have to
wait till Steve Kaplan posts his comments today. He will confirm whether
we've hit it or not. IMO, we're darn close...I guess we'll see very soon
whether "big boys" determine if these low inventories are a threat to their short positions or not...See ya, Fox-man

(Thu Oct 29 1998 16:57 - ID#350288)

1. Is Randgold pegging their NAV at 5.78 US dollars.
2. Any news on GRERF, up 13% in two days with some cat taking 65000 shares today.
Any answers greatly appreciated.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:00 - ID#350288)

1. Is Randgold pegging their NAV at 5.78 US dollars.
2. Any news on GRERF, up 13% in two days with some cat taking 65000 shares today.
Any answers greatly appreciated.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:01 - ID#229207)
Could be. Or 10,000. Or 6000.

No one knows.

It might rain. It might not. Depending on the weather :- )

Of course, the DOW is supported by a thin thread of confidence. The DOW rises as the market comes to believe that all the turmoil they heard about over the past months are being resolved because nothing new has come of it.


Gusto Oro
(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:01 - ID#430260)
James, I'll say one thing $%&%^*^&(*)*)*%&^$^&# will hit the fan at some point here...

TD: Among metals, silver is the best waiting game in town. Price is
behaving very much in line with my expectations, i.e., over 30+ years as
a mining/metals Analyst I've observed that metal price begins to inch up
as industry figures excess stocks are dwindling and smelter/refinery
capacity is fully utilized.

However, most industrial consumers will not hoard materials until actual
threat of shortage materializes as measured by lengthening delivery lead

Hence, I've seen in aluminum, copper lead, nickel, steel,zinc, etc. that
prices explode only as Inventory/Copnsumption ( I/C ) ratio falls to, and
below, the "normal working stock" level.

The supply/demand deficit guarantees that the I/C ratio will decline
below the working stock level but possibly more than two years hence.

However, with a large retail short position, big spec interests could
rig silver prices sharply higher by making major purchases and
temporarily diminishing available inventory.

Bottom line for me is cautious trading of call options on COMEX futures
to have a toe-hold awaiting big move.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:04 - ID#222186)
Repost from last week
Next Tuesday, November 3, is election day in the US. There is an embrago on all bad news now, but this will be lifted after the polls close on Tuesday. The illusions will no longer need to be maintained.

As I said last week, the smoke will clear ( right, Cherokee? ) , the mirrors will shatter, and real value will emerge in the markets.

Yes, the Dow may be hyped up to 9,000 before then, and our precious maybe held under $295 ( Au ) and $5 ( Ag ) -- but be certain it will not last. The key dates are November 3 and November 11. Keep some powder dry.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:04 - ID#347457)
sorry for mispelling your name :- (

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:15 - ID#269409)
@ EJ...your 17:01
Well stated with brevity. SHould be required reading for Puetz...a la "Clockwork Orange" his eyeballs should be forced to read it over and over......cause with the DOW....

"No one knows....she comes and goes....."

( Mick Jagger..Ruby Tuesday )

Chicken man
(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:24 - ID#341297)
Mike Sheller @ Paving material
The most valuable possession that God has is His "Grace"....even this He gives freely to all thru His Son....God uses Gold for paving material...
ever hear the part about "streets of gold" in Heaven?

Only man "loves" gold...He loves US!

Just a thought from my heart..Chicken man...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:26 - ID#290456)
jims @ ending diagonal triangles/wedges


Spent a good deal of time today on the cybermail discussing this subject ( ending diagonal in gold/silver in Euro currencies ) . Very interesting possibilities and outcomes, if the pattern holds.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:38 - ID#229207)
One tries to make sense of markets and predict their behavior, but this is futile. The problem is that they're too complex. Many humans, many opinions, many unpredictable events, many sources of conflicting information, many ways of interpreting the same information, many ways of reacting to the same information, and on and on. It can't be modeled. It can't be charted. In a bull market you can say, "But the fundamentals are bad!" and they are and still the market goes up. In a bear market you can say, "But the fundamentals are good!" and they are and still the market keeps falling.

Humans. Go figure.

My sense is that until an event happens that truly shakes the faith of the believers in the miracle of unending expansion, the DOW will continue to either rise slowly or trade in the range it's found since the world financial crisis apparently stablized. But the down move is likely to be sudden, and I will miss the ride if I stay out. So I stay in with my short bets, losing for now. But my bet is that over the next two months, the defining event that ends this very long bull will finally happen.

And my guess is that China will be the trigger.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:40 - ID#350145)
Gust Oro re silver
my thinking exactly. thanks.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:40 - ID#411163)
My coin dealer told me today that he would sell me
silver coins at $4.50 per dollar for junk. Stated that the price was nuts but that it didn't matter as neither he or his supplier have any. He normally buys from two sources but now hits on 6 total. All say the same thing. Supplys are tight and demand is way up. It has been true for gold for a while now but silver in getting to be just as popular.
$4.50 seems high to me any comments?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:44 - ID#413175)
The Ancient Eagle Takes Flight

Those who seek an insight into N.A.S.A. will find a delicious, unvarnished sketch in Eric Chaisson's "The Hubble Wars". Chaisson is an honest man. He served as a scientist on the senior staff at the Space Telescope Science Institute. He also served as Director of Educational Programs. He kept up a journal every day while he was there and his book is built upon that.

Read about utter inanity and money wasting on an industrial scale.

By the way, the cost of this shuttle mission is not as small as was mentioned here earlier today. The immediate costs are on the order of $450 million. What are they /really/ going to learn up there?

How many full scholarships to M.I.T. and Georgia Tech. would $450 million buy? It would be a safe bet that the world would be better off with another six or eight thousand top engineers or graduates in pure science than it will be after these seven people have spent few days in orbit.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:44 - ID#433172)
Thanks for the tax info, looks like I'll have plenty of losses to cover the gains.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:46 - ID#229207)
While the world frets about Brazil, read the following and think of China
History's Deadbeats
Sorry, Russian bondholders, defaults on sovereign debt are a long tradition

By Robert Sobel, Barron's, Oct. 26, 1998

Some years ago, Citicorp's legendary chairman, Walter Wriston, made a prediction he came to regret: "Sovereign [nations] don't default." Unfortunately for investors, he was wrong. Nations have defaulted throughout history. The current woes of Russia, whose bonds have plummeted on investors' fears of a full-blown economic and governmental collapse, are not unique.

The optimists, like so many Doctor Panglosses, downplay such fears. They note that, unlike private corporations, sovereign nations can always print money -- thus they don't have to default.

That belief developed over the past two centuries. In earlier times, when bankers operated more like pawnbrokers, they could seize collateral from a private party. But doing so was another matter if the debtor was a monarch who had armed forces at his disposal.

Because of this, kings had to pay higher interest than merchants. In fact, the more powerful the ruler, the greater the risk. In the 13th century, for example, Emperor Frederick II paid 30%-40% annual interest to his bankers.

The rates could be lower, however, depending upon the collateral. When Emperor Baldwin II borrowed a large sum from a Venetian merchant banker named Morosini, the collateral was what was purported to be Christ's crown of thorns, taken when Constantinople was looted during the Fourth Crusade. The loan wasn't repaid, whereupon France's King Louis IX, later to be St. Louis, took it upon himself to seize the collateral, which he donated to a church. When King Ferdinand of Portugal was captured in war, his wife was able to borrow his ransom at the surprisingly low rate of 18%, indicating the collateral was quite attractive.

If a bank provided funds for warfare and the borrower lost the war, the bank might be out of luck. Consider the case of the Bardi and Peruzzi banks, two of the largest, best-managed institutions in 14th-century Italy. During the Hundred Years War, both France and England borrowed heavily. The Bardi bank, perhaps to hedge its bets, lent to both sides. When the loans -- 600,000 Florentine florins from the Peruzzi, 900,000 from the Bardi -- couldn't be repaid, both banks were in trouble.

To complicate matters, at about the same time, the King of Naples repudiated a large debt owed the banks. As a result, the Peruzzi bank failed in 1343; the Bardi, the following year.

In time, a portion of the loans to France and England were repaid, for deadbeats couldn't hope for further borrowings. Until this was done, the monarchs were obliged to scrounge from bankers in their own lands, often with threats that might easily be acted upon.

Similar stories are common in more modern times.

During the 1920s, when American companies and banks generated more capital than could be employed domestically, then-massive sums flowed overseas -- $5.1 billion between 1925 and 1929. Foreign governments were urged to take more than they needed because capital was short abroad, where interest rates were higher than in America.

In Europe, more than 30 banks, most of them American, competed to lend money to the city of Budapest and 14 competed for Belgrade's business. One enterprising U.S. banker located a Bavarian town that wanted to borrow the modest sum of $125,000. He persuaded the city fathers to take $3 million instead.

Corruption was rife. While Cuba was borrowing heavily on Wall Street, the son-in-law of President Gerardo Machado was given a position at the Havana branch of an American bank in return for using his influence to obtain the underwriting.

In Peru, a syndicate of American banks induced the son of President Augusto Leguia to join them. The president undertook an extensive construction program that required bond issues in 1924, 1927 and 1928, with much of the proceeds siphoned off into the pockets of government officials and their backers. Leguia was ousted in 1930, and his son was convicted of "illegal enrichment." The loans were never repaid, and some investors who had bought the bonds were wiped out. But the firms that helped Peru pull off the deals reaped fat fees.

As for the rest of Latin America, Wall Street carved it up like a side of beef in the 'Twenties. J.P. Morgan and National City shared Argentina's federal bond offerings, permitting other banks to participate in the distribution syndicate and take regional issues. Colony Trust and Dillon Read underwrote Buenos Aires bonds, and Dillon Read elbowed aside London's Rothschilds for Brazil's business. Speyer was the sole underwriter for the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo. Hallgarten handled all of Colombia's issues.

Matters changed as it became evident that conditions in the debtor countries were deteriorating. A peak year for foreign bond offerings was 1927, when of the $7.8 billion in new government issues marketed in the U.S., $1.6 billion were for foreign borrowers. After European offerings ran into difficulty finding buyers, there was a decided decline in interest rates for Latin American debt -- by 1928 the total of all foreign underwritings came to a measly $763 million.

Even so, in the spring of 1930, Chile was able to sell an A-rated $25 million offering at a yield of 6.7%, and Sao Paulo placed $35 million in Baa bonds at 7.58%, at a time when the American discount rate was 3%. A revolution in Chile and troubles in Argentina prompted Moody's to lower both their ratings to Baa. Ratings were also lowered on the federal debt of Brazil, Bolivia and Venezuela. This came as no surprise to investors, who had sold them into a declining market months before. Many of those bonds offered at par in the late 1920s were well below 50 by late 1930.

In 1931, there followed a wave of repudiations. Practically all South American issuers except Argentina defaulted. By March, Bolivian and Peruvian bonds were selling for eight cents on the dollar. In Chile, normally a conservative and creditworthy country, the 1931 budget of $126 million had to be reduced because of declining copper prices and exports, and the 1932 budget was planned for $85 million, by which time the government defaulted on its debts.

From October 1931 to August 1932, only two foreign issues came to the American market, both Canadian, raising a total of just $3 million. By then Argentina's 5s of 1945 were selling below 50, even though the country was prompt in meeting its interest payments. In large part this reflected the devaluation of the peso from 90 cents in 1930 to 58 cents in 1932, and the loss of a substantial part of the country's gold reserve.

At the time, a large number of defaulted Latin American federal and state bonds were selling for 5% of face value. Most of the bondholders were destroyed.

As bankers and investors learned during the Middle Ages -- and Citicorp, BankAmerica, Bankers Trust et al. have relearned recently -- lending to sovereigns can be dangerous.

As Mike Milken, Wall Street's junk-bond king of the 1980s, once told a customer: "You can seize MCI for failure to pay interest. You can't seize Argentina. Or Russia, Southeast Asia or the rest of Latin America." He was right.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:54 - ID#350145)
silver off take
one of the big differences between G and S is that individual investors can easily draw down inventories and consumers generally do not carry large inventories. but with low interest rates and a little fear of higher prices some industrial consumers could start. Also very few silver mines and producers, so if we get a price rise very few stocks one can buy - lot of people after a few stocks. gold has infinite overhang, stocks and potential mines.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:55 - ID#411320)
@veg Ok you buy the call on the dow and I will buy the puts
Most of the smart money are not even in stocks.

Aragorn III
(Thu Oct 29 1998 17:57 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA)--Bravo, your 11:51. You been reading my journal?
Kiwi--thanks, friend. Insight brought to those at USAGOLD...thoughts were too good to be lost among the many trees of this fine Kitco forest.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:00 - ID#252391)
To Silverbaron - The apex
I calculate the apex of the ECU/Gold traingle to be at 290 in the third week of November. Todays high was probably right on the downtrend line.

It will be very interesting to see what happens after the election Nov 2.
Price action over 296 after that will represent a breakout.

Amazing chart. Price action fits in the declining wedge tighter than OJ Simson's hand in his glove.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:08 - ID#220325)
APH-- Thanks for the silver charts
Both of them were well worth saving!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:11 - ID#252150)
The glass is empty@A bottle of good ale & gazing out on the St. of J de F
in calm reflection for 1/2 hr has soothed my spirits. I'm now in a more optomistic mood. Maybe POG will only go to 230.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:24 - ID#269128)
Screws being tightened on silver shorts....
looks like Warren B. is not happy with someone again, time to squeeze.

Thursday October 29, 3:50 pm Eastern Time

RPT-Long-Term rejects PIMCO bid, others

By Apu Sikri

NEW YORK, Oct 29 ( Reuters ) - Investors who have tried to buy chunks of
Long-Term Capital's portfolio at fire-sale prices in recent days have been politely told ``Thanks-but-no-thanks,'' money
managers dealing with the troubled hedge fund said.

In contrast to billionaire Warren Buffett's reported recent attempts to buy Long-Term's entire portfolio of securities, these
money managers have made offers for blocks of investments from the fund, said people dealing with the fund.

Thursday October 29, 1:09 pm Eastern Time

Merrill says first saw LTCM books in Sept.

NEW YORK, Oct 29 ( Reuters ) - Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., one of the 14 firms
involved in bailing out Long-Term Capital Management, said on Thursday it first
examined the troubled hedge fund's books on September 21, despite published
media reports suggesting the securities firm saw them earlier.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:28 - ID#288295)
Forget John Glenn...we may have OTHER COMPANY !!
SETI Signals at 1450Mhz from EQ Pegasi? gold and silver!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:29 - ID#288295)
Trying again on the SETI URL

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:33 - ID#34883)
Shelton: 'Inexplicable' Exchange Rates

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:45 - ID#404312)

silver--looks to me like the correction ( week &
month ) charts is over. Expect $8.00+ before move
is over. Bought some very cheap dec calls.
shortterm looks to me like 5.90 before they
gold--sideways move almost over. couldn't add to
calls ( bonds moving wrong way temporarily-probably
head south now to 126-124 within 7 days-do these
people know what they are buying? Inflation is
probably 7% at least. Don't believe official
statistics. They are there to cheat the old folks
out of their social security cost-of-living
increases. ) now where was I?
today may have been last day to buy cheap calls.
may wake up tomorrow up 5.00. Trying to figure
resistance points to sell and buy more lower.
probably around 307, 310, and then 315. After
which should have a good retracement back to 307.
then onward and upward. current gold formation looks a lot like gold and silver in summer of 1982--stairstepping higher.
silver weekly in july 82 looks exactly like present gold weekly over last two months
gold formation has numerous analogies. most of them leave the island bottom of the last six days and gap higher. there is, of course, always the chance of a drop. the timid should put in buy stops above today's price to catch any gap up.

stocks--I posted some comments back in Aug about bears getting too carried away. the recent double bottom pointed to higher prices. expect more sideways to slightly higher movement for a few weeks--caveat--if the dems win the House back go short immediately. watch the elections returns and use globex. this bull was born in the election of 94 and will end if stupid people outnumber us in voting booths. anyway, chart looks like it will take awhile to form a top.

have learned a little over the years. one thing is that big moves like the summer stock market get a lot of people excited and expecting more immeditaely. they end up losing everything they made in the big move by getting greedy and expecting another really big move right away.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:52 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 28.94. The 233 day moving average is 28.86

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:53 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...
Good to see you are with us still...sign me up for Russian coins...more PMSP than I ever thought would be needed...Ready to graduate to the to find one at reasonable price. Having a beer W/out permission.

So, have you been well and showing patience? Wonder when $318 will be upon dear spouse will have to pour me into bed...I have not touched my bottle...we watch and wait. Gold reminds me of my FIRST wife...lovely but unfaithful;- ) .


(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:54 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .256. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Thu Oct 29 1998 18:59 - ID#254288)

With few pure silver producers showing a decent profit and the base metals miners in dire straights, some facing shutdown; it seems the double whammy, of low silver prices and probable shortages caused by closures will make folly of Martin Armstrong's predition of huge above ground hoards.
If the rumour is partially true, one has to ask; what part of the holdings are long term and will they ne sold at less than production costs.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 19:04 - ID#254288)

With few pure silver producers showing a decent profit and the base metals miners in dire straights, some facing shutdown; it seems the double whammy, of low silver prices and probable ( still greater production ) shortages caused by closures will make folly of Martin Armstrong's predition of huge above ground hoards.
If the rumour is partially true, one has to ask; what part of the holdings are long term and will they be sold at less than production costs.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 19:44 - ID#43349)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 19:49 - ID#45173)
Brother oris
Thank you for the wadka advice the other night. I had the misfortune to take it and spent the next day feeling, well, less than delux. But I have recovered and shall fight the temptation to deny myself a few glasses of wine this evening. The road of excess leads to wisdom, as they say.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 20:58 - ID#45173)
Everyone come on out. The 'net storm is over. Kitco's back. ( I think? )

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:05 - ID#390337)
Sorry about that.
My return message to EQ Pegasi jammed MAE East & West simultaneously. Those damned alien coded messages look just like internet routing packets.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:29 - ID#333126)
japanese carmakers cut production in Asian countries ...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:35 - ID#238422)
Brother Tom,

In regard to AKs - the latest issue of Guns & Ammo has
a review of the latest Russian "hit" - 12 ga. Siaga, which is
AK-based shotgun. G&A guys like it a lot...they call AK-action
"idiot-proof and damn near indestructible" and etc. - means
it always works no matter what, even when handled by the idiot.

Do you know now why I like AKs so much?!?...opps...but it's
true...So do not listen to me, please, any more...please....

Are you familiar with BASIC? Try this at home:

20 FOR PMSP=1 to 1000
30 IF POG=500 GOTO 80
70 END
80 FOR I=1 TO 10000000
100 NEXT I

In regard to Russian gold coins - I talked to my friend
in Moscow, it they mint those coins, I may get a
collectors items...

Will let you know, but we are talking "Russian plan to
mint gold coins" - means something that hard to believe...

Take care...get in touch with EJ, he knows the way on how
to overcome...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:42 - ID#219363)
Just another day on the Nikkei, 13503.28 -165.44 -1.21%

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:46 - ID#238422)
I'm really sorry, really sorry...dah...
But at least you tried, and now you know, yes?
The key is to do it long and hard, than it does not
hurt so much...Also, one of the best things about
drinking is a wonderful opportunity to tell the complete
story the next day to everybody at work... how bad
it was...I noticed this paradox in many of my friends...
althought I personally never talk about it...just don't

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:47 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

We have a crossover.
What's going to happen next???

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:51 - ID#30345)
I like your master page. Kept me busy most of the day. Thanks.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 21:59 - ID#219363)
World seems very quiet right now to me. Foreign markets have calmed and become relatively stable, no really bad news has come across the wires, the US markets have leveled off and even made a nice pop today, it just seems peaceful out there, even Kitco traffic seems light to me. So where oh where do we go from here.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:04 - ID#433422)

check the E-Mail thingy.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:05 - ID#267298)
Question RE: ECU
Can someone tell me when the ECU was originally planned?
If memory serves me I seem to recall my first reading something
about it in 1979 or thereabouts. Any help here will be appreciated.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:07 - ID#31868)
Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to reponse to your 21:59...two words sum up my opinion
the abyss...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:11 - ID#34883)
gollum's link

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:14 - ID#433422)

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:15 - ID#433422)
The tank

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:16 - ID#45173)
oris - Russian joke
An American, a Frenchman, and a Russian are stranded on a desert island. They've been there for a few days so they're starving. They stumble around looking for something to eat and find a magic lantern, of course. Somehow in these desert island jokes they never find a tunafish sandwich. Anyway, they find this lantern and the French guy picks it up and rubs it. Geenie pops out. Says, "Ok, I'm not your usual gennie. You guys each get only two wishes instead of the usual three." ( Wish deflation, I guess. ) So the French guy says, "Send me back to Paris and set me up with a beautiful woman!" So the gennie sends him back to Paris with a beautiful woman. The American says, "Send me back to New York City. I want to be with my beautiful girlfriend, Sara!" So the gennie sends him to NYC to be with his girlfriend. And the Russian guy says, "I want a case of vodka." The gennie produces a case of Smirnoff. The Russian sits there drinking the vodka. The geenie says, "Hey. You get one more wish." So the the Russian says, "I hate drinking alone. Bring those other two guys back here."

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:18 - ID#31868)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...interesting reading if you ahve not seen it...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:20 - ID#190411)
Remember the Argentine Gold Sale?
I have a bit more news.
I had assumed that the 1.54 million coins were essentially all Argentine 5 Peso, which is a nice looking approx 1/4 oz coin.
Apparently this is not the case. In this unusual stash are coins of most of the gold standard countries of one hundred years ago. The common French, Italian, Belgian, Swiss group of course. Also German, many US types, probably old Spanish doubloons, and most of what was used for bank reserves back then. They will retain about 40,000 coins of historic value.
So, the newsies that reported this story missed the interesting angle.

I doubt that they will have to sell any of this for melt, as the Reuters story said.
I will inform Kitco as I find more information.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:23 - ID#190411)
EJ--Good One

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:26 - ID#373403)
Federal Reserve Board

Remarks by Governor Edward W. Kelley, Jr.
At the Annual Economic Symposium at Houston Baptist University
October 29, 1998

Countdown to Y2K: An Economic Assessment

The economic stakes are very large, and the spectrum of possible outcomes very broad, ranging from minimal to extremely serious. For the truth of the matter is that this episode is unique: We really have had no previous experience with a challenge of this sort to give us reliable guideposts.


Bank supervisors, including the Federal Reserve, are holding their banks accountable for the effectiveness of their Y2K efforts, and I can assure you that there will be consequences for banks that do not fulfill their obligations. But many organizations are on their own to test their critical systems with their key suppliers and customers.


One area in which uncertainty about Y2K readiness is likely to have noticeable effects on economic activity in 1999 is in the management of inventories. As the millennium approaches, I expect businesses will want to hold larger inventories of goods as insurance against Y2K-related supply disruptions. Such a shift from "just-in-time" inventory management to a "just-in-case" posture is likely to prompt an increase in orders and production during 1999. These stocks subsequently would be run off in the first half of 2000. We at the Fed, for example, will do precisely that in our management of the production of new currency.


Obviously an important element in any forecast for the Year 2000 is the degree to which the failure of the computer system at one institution causes ripple effects on the systems of others. If the disruptions that occur are not isolated events, as I have assumed, but spread across key sectors of the economy by interacting with each other, then an outright decline in real GDP in the first quarter of 2000 could be a plausible outcome.

The more dire of the Y2K scenarios would involve, among other things, a perpetuation and intensification of these feedback effects. In such an event, production disruptions could turn out to be a national or international phenomenon and could spread from one industry to another. Under these circumstances, the decline in economic activity would prove to be longer lasting, and a recession-typically defined as a decline in real gross domestic product in two consecutive quarters-could ensue. But let me quickly stress that I do not think this recession scenario has a very high probability. It is possible, but a lot of things have to go wrong for it to occur, and much is being done to prevent its occurrence.

What can monetary policy do to offset any Y2K disruptions? The truthful answer is "not much." Just as we were not able to plow the streets in 1996 or deliver packages in 1997, the central bank will be unable to reprogram the nation's computers for the year 2000. The Y2K problem is primarily an issue affecting the aggregate "supply" side of the economy, whereas the Federal Reserve's monetary policy works mainly on aggregate "demand." We all understand how creating more money and lowering the level of short-term interest rates gives a boost to interest-sensitive sectors ( such as homebuilding ) , but these tools are unlikely to be very effective in generating more Y2K remediation efforts or accelerating the recovery process if someone experiences some type of Year 2000 disruption. We will, of course, be ready if people want to hold more cash on New Year's Eve 1999, and we will be prepared to lend whatever sums may be needed to financial institutions through the discount window under appropriate circumstances or to provide needed reserves to the banking system. And, if a serious Y2K disruption should have significant feedback effects on aggregate demand-as I outlined in the recession scenario-there obviously would be a role for the Federal Reserve to play in countering the downturn. But there is nothing monetary policy can do to offset the direct effects of a Y2K disruption.


Some of the more frightening scenarios are not without a certain plausibility, if this challenge were being ignored. But it is not being ignored-as this symposium today clearly illustrates. An enormous amount of work is being done in anticipation of the rollover of the millennium. As the world's largest economy, the heaviest burden of preparation falls on the U.S. But it is truly a worldwide issue, and to the extent some are not adequately prepared and experience breakdowns of unforeseeable dimension, we shall all be affected accordingly.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:28 - ID#31868)
Dbog, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...The EU and everything you could want to know...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:28 - ID#433422)
Ja maan.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:28 - ID#257351)

I never said that Ted was stupid just 'liberal'. Now that may equate in your mind but I'd watch it saying so here. There are so many rabid liberals at Kitco don't 'cha know!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:28 - ID#190411)
nick@C heads to Argentina to buy the lot.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:30 - ID#219363)
Darwin Award
Darwin award this week was the market analyst I saw on the television who, when asked what he saw as a buy, recommended that people purchase AOL for the long term. When an analyst says something like that on a stock that's trading at 128 5/16, 52-week low of 32, earnings of .61 cents a share, and a P/E of TWO HUNDRED AND THREE, then this bull isn't dead, and sanity has not returned to the markets. Will it never end. Somebody shake me.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:31 - ID#31868)
grant, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
the tank...the abyss...the crapper...etc...the fiat grave and this one is deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:33 - ID#257351)
Not reading at length. Just taking peeks. You have a morbid bent. Need counciling. Take tranquilizers. Read TIME magazine. Watch Simpsons.

Come back to see me and tell me of your progress.



Seriously, though, it does look worse all the time, no? Yes. There is a striking correspondence between the effects of the two. They will mutually reinforce each other. Ouch!!!

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:35 - ID#257351)
See ya'll tomorrow!
SDRer - no new esoteria for us goldbugs?

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:38 - ID#45173)
Recall that just a few weeks ago when "The Crash of 1998!" was on the cover of Newsweek the bulls were saying, "Hah! See? The bear market is over! The bottom is in! You never have a crash when everyone's saying there's gonna be a crash!" And they were right. And now, when all is calm and peace and tranquility have been restored, and the townspeople have come back from the square with their torches and pitchforks put away and now they are sleeping soundly in their beds...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:51 - ID#350145)
Vancouver and toronto doing much better
greatly increased volume and more up than down. the mkts are absorbing the tax loss sellers well it seems. don't know exactly whats going on, but i hope it continues? seems like there is some optimism in the air- could portend higher prices for G and S. vancouver was running $6 to $10 mil a day $29 mil today - about a third argentina gold, but still.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 22:59 - ID#238422)
EJ - thanks, it's an excelent joke.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:01 - ID#219363)
Original guess on the day of the mini-tank was for a re-trace to 8500, started buying back short position from 8100 through 8400, a little early I admit. I'm still confident in my position, but if the DOW were to move back above 8800, my resolve would fade rather quickly. Let's watch it together.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:13 - ID#350145)
liberals @ kitco
are rare. but i have a dream, that one day in the future, when the waters run clear, and the air is clean, they will once again, like the buffalo, run free, and populate the forest and plains in numbers too numerous to count.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:21 - ID#335379)
Puts anyone? is it time to buy SnPuts? or are we going to see a total retrace to DJI9500?
Hello Tol One: Good read. For all the hoopla ( deception ) of the one worlders they can only take us by force. The idea that one worldizing will bring ANY benafit is pure mule fritters. We are a diverse and splintered people.....

When I was young and trying to get work and ran into a child labor law and asked for a varience a sweet but sickly sounding female voice on the other end of the phone said "your government is just trying to protect you" How nieve can these gov. employees get. After I politely exploded she transferred me w/o a word to someone that wanted to get my address to send me something. Another well educated beurocrat. They already told me no, what good was it to "send" me something. I grew suspicious and hung up the phone. My first enlightenment to the
rules and people of governmaent I would have to learn how to mitigate. After all they make plenty of loopholes for there own bretheren. One just needs to find out what they are.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:31 - ID#45173)
But that's my whole point. It might go above 8800. Or even higher. So what? These so-called resistance points only really matter in commodities trading where so many traders look at charts and make decisions based on them that it acually matters. But almost no one, I'll guarantee you, checks the DOW to say, "Geez. It looks like it's close to 8800. Better sell that Gillette stock." No one cares. Joe Sixpack is looking at a stock and sensing the general movement of the market and figuring in the fight he had with his wife, and the vet bill for the dog's shots, and watches some scary report about Brazil on TV, worries that little Jimmy might not have tuition money, and, if he hasn't forgotten all about it in the morning, dials into Fidelity and sells his Gillette stock.

We'll have more sellers than buyers when the fear returns. If it doesn't return in the next few months, once the banks and GE Capital and all the other corporations that you think make things but actually are in the derivatives racket start to come clean on their derivatives losses, and Asia starts buying oil again, then I'll sell all my PMs and take out a $500,000 loan and buy AOL 'cause that means the markets are being orchestrated perfectly and risk has been banished from the face of the earth.


(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:33 - ID#31868)
Nickodemus, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...yes it is true...the social re-order dirtbags
can only win through the death of the opposition...and to make matters even more disgusting...the dirtbags have no money of their own so they try and steal it through taxes...and outright murder...their social programs and philosphy are malignant cancers and must be cut out of the body politic once and for all...

Crystal Ball
(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:37 - ID#287405)
Dear Nick. Please explain the Swing chart. Much obliged. Sincerely. CB

Steve in TO
(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:38 - ID#209265)
Squirrel - concerning your 1:48, the reason to . . .
invest in gold, even if the price is rigged is: nobody can rig a market forever.

It's like trying to stop a river by building a dam- the water keeps coming, and the pressure keeps building up. Of course, real dams have sluice gates to let the water out- and if you let less water out than is flowing in- the water rises, breaches the dam, and a disaster ensues downstream from the dam.

The central bankers are trying to hold back the flood of gold demand, and they seem to be doing very well at it, but the longer they artificially hold market forces in check, the greater are the pressures that build up. At some point the dam will breach and we'll see the price of gold go wild.

It's hard to know when the CB gold price control system will break down- but everyone on this board should want to be ready for when it does. It could turn out to be the chance to make the biggest one-time profit of our whole lives.

- Steve

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:47 - ID#411163)
Oris-that 12 guage AK sure is ugly!!!! Bet it has a big following
when the after marketers get all the 20-50 round magazines and chopped stocks and whatever else they think of. First though to me is that it is not for me. I'll take a pump.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:47 - ID#219363)
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for lots of liberal points of view on Kitco. Some things just taste great together: peanut butter and jelly, turkey and cranberry sauce, wine and white fish. Liberal points of view just doesn't fit with gold discussion group for some reason, call me crazy. Conservative points of view don't even go with gold discussion group for that matter, this is more your libertarian, guns and gold, sovereign power of one, no fiat currency, watch your back, own a boat, sail the world, enjoy a good glass of homebrew on the front porch with a friend crowd, at least from what I've seen. This forum seems to be populated by a large number of very smart individual people, a loose group, and I haven't noticed a lot of tolerance for faith in any particular conventional wisdom, be it republican, democrat, green, labor, or what you have you. I've also seen a lower level of BS on this forum than some other places, and an emphasis on pragmatics and what works, a lower level of respect for ideas about what might work, and a higher level of respect for track records and experience. The people here don't seem to "buy in" on much.

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:52 - ID#411140)
tolerant1- salud! You might want to check out the neo-tech web site
@ or you may not. I've read quite a lot of what they have published and subscribed to their chat by e-mail for a couple of years. I agree with much that they put out but I personally stop short on the disbelief of god, as I avidly meditate and do believe in some benefits to the bi-cameral ( right side ) brain ( non-linear ) . Anyhow the short of it all is they have a distinct philosophy for dealing with "neo-cheaters". Neo-cheaters being anyone who creates a problem then denies their role in that creation and then also turn around and tell you they can alleviate said problem- for a fee. Typical neo-cheaters would include most all clergy, certainly every politician, psychologist, some doctors, lawyers etc... well you get it the bloodsucking vampires of this earth. So anyhow they have a lot of material to wade through, but if you enjoy philosophy...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:58 - ID#284255)
Crystal Ball
The swing data is compiled from the daily advancers/decliners/unchanged numbers of the NYSE/Nasdaq?Amex markets. 9000 odd stocks.

What it shows is accumulation/distribution - buying/selling.

Seems this buying phase is about to turn and become a selling phase.

It is very similiar to the Swenlin Oscillator.
You can find information on the Swenlin Oscillator at Descision Point

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:59 - ID#333126)
anyone noticed the US$/Yen is moving again?
1% yesterday, 1% today.... ahh...

(Thu Oct 29 1998 23:59 - ID#25490)
"en" hyphen
Remove the "en" when copying into Web Browser

"el" hyphen>
Remove the "" ( which is an "el" hyphen ) and replace with "-" ( which is an "en" hyphen ) when copying into Web Browser.

"em" hyphen

Remove the "" ( which is an "em" hyphen ) and replace with "-" ( which is an "en" hyphen ) when copying into Web Browser.

It's simply enism.

Ens have rights too.