Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:00 - ID#45173)
Not much happening tonight. Maybe tomorrow's another ho hum day.
Or maybe the stock market crashes. Who knows?


(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:02 - ID#25490)
"en" hyphen
Remove the "en" when copying into Web Browser

"el" hyphen>

Remove the "" ( which is an "el" hyphen ) and replace with "-" ( which is an "en"
hyphen ) when copying into Web Browser.

"em" hyphen

Remove the "" ( which is an "em" hyphen ) and replace with "-" ( which is an "en"
hyphen ) when copying into Web Browser.

It's simply enism.

Ens have rights too.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:03 - ID#411163)
EJ and Envy. I gather most here are professionals, I am not.
I do physical construction work and work with a lot of average people.
When I mention PM's and gold shorts and the carry trade they look at me
like I'm nuts!! These guys are almost all watching their 401k's and think themselves as the coming rich. They do not have a clue as to what is really happening in the world. When these guys panic it will get dammed serious. One electriction calmly told me that when they tell him Social Security is broke he will take out his guns and start shooting his elected officials. HE was dead serious!! He is about average also. I'm getting scared. The economy is slowing like a geometric progression in reverse. Take a lot of care!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:05 - ID#243100)
A large DITTO to Envy's 23:47

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:08 - ID#411140)
@Rack, not all are professionals, maybe just the truly brilliant ones
myself, I am an electrician 25 years, a teacher, and a trader.
But I do commisserate with you for the oasis of construction worker mentalities. Dealt with that one myself a long time, but if you look every once in q while there is a gem out there.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:13 - ID#153120)
CNN's Lew Dobbs tonight
I just saw a item on CNN's financial show with Lew Dobb's about the credit markets. It stated that
the credit markets are still in arrears from the recent events in the bond markets. That the liquidity in the corporate and treasury markets was is down significantly with volume in the treasury market
down 50%, credit spreads up significantly ( didn't say how much ) and that the big hedge funds are
no longer major sources of volume in these markets. That there is big concern about next week's 38 billion new bond issue from the Federal government as there may not be enough buyers. Well with no deficit and a balanced budget for Washington, I guess that would no longer be a worry!

There were other things said too, but the thing to remember is that in the bond market things are
different than they were just a couple of months ago. Obviously the spreads are not double digit or that the markets are locked up, but from my viewing of Lew Dobbs show on CNN tonight if a "Big Swinging *ick from Solomon Brothers wanted to have a big change in his position like selling a large number of US Treasuries futures contracts or actual bonds there just might be a big fall in the price of the bonds and a big spike up in the interest rates. I find it interesting that bond volume has fallen so much recently, could it be that arms are being twisted to not sell into the bond market, a friendly word of warning to sit awhile with your position until Uncle Sam sells a few more US Government insecurities in the market?

I think that one day last month the participants woke up in the morning went to work and found the world different. The day will soon come when this new reality will dawn upon the rest of America

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:14 - ID#24135)
for all ..
Already been in and out of PGD. Bought when wave 5
ended early October .. sold shortly after when little
wave 5 breakout collapsed ( around 13.5 ) .. didnt
mention as not in for much and had no confidence. But
did make about 30 % in a short time. Probably close
to the best of the NA mines .. if you can handle the
political instability.

for Mapleman ..
you asked if Rangold had "pegged" their NAV at
5.78 ( ?? ) .. What in the world are you talking
about ??. I believe the value of their holdings
on or about sept 30 was calculated to be the
number they published .. Im waiting for
Polarbear to cross check his rangold NAV model
with mine. I got something close to that but
havent seen their details yet.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:14 - ID#280214)
Steve in TO @ 23:38 - yes I would like to buy more now
but I am also wary of being clobbered by a fire sale by governments
trying to raise whatever funds they can to bail out their socialist economies and by others who, in dire distress, sell Gold to buy grub & guns. Now THAT will be the time to buy - if we have powder that is still dry.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:18 - ID#401460)

It's about time.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:21 - ID#411163)
RAN-I agree there are gems out there. Its just that they are
rare. The gems will survive. the other 99% are the ones who will be out of work, losing everything they have and looking for a target to blame.
They will not blame themselves. I am not just talking about construction workers either. It will be everyone. The worst will probably be city/county/state people. So many think the world can't run without them and that what they do is important. Inspectors come to mind. I'm sure you have had inspectors tell you that you did something wrong and then have to teach them that "no you do not wire nut the ground to all the hots" or something equally stupid. In the mean time they can make you miserable. We succeed in spite of them-so far?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:26 - ID#34191)
mole, get yer gol dang liberal buffalo off the praire cause the're gonna overgraze it.
They can't run free because we got all the creeks and rivers fenced off so the buffalo can't eat the salmon. Just love the Grand Canyon 'cause it proves there was EROSION before there were cattle. Sorry guys it was a slow day. Watchin gold and silver make me money has been sorta like watchin paint dry. Still waitin for the DOW to fall into my Bear trap. Last week wasn't much fun.

My brother thinks I should buy Platinum Eagle proof sets, anybody got an opinion on that? Already got a few golden eagles and maple leafs but not proof sets.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:26 - ID#25490)
Thank you for your assistance digging out info on legal aspects of Y2K. Truly appreciated. It formed the heart of speech I was writing for ANOTHER to deliver at a conference on Y2K and The Law...

The conference on Y2K and The Law has been cancelled due to lack of interest.

Cancelled due to lack of interest.

Got ostriches buried in sand?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:35 - ID#264322)
korondy 17:04 Post
Read your post with interest. Please elucidate the import of your November 11 date. Thanks for your posts and your help on this one!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:38 - ID#31868)
RAN, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I have book-marked the page your referenced
and I too enjoy reading many ecelectic thoughts...on the other hand I will say that the headings wealth...power...youth and sex in limitless quantities do not appeal to me in the fashion in which they were fact I find them to be somewhat lacking from the outset...

Words like orientation...paradigm...and neo-anything trouble me and the utilization of steps/? to reach the exotic/erotic fifth dimension sends chills up my spine...

But I did not create the site and stated one misgiving you percieved in the information there...I think it is another example of people that are not content and constantly seek more when they do not even appreciate what they and now...

But I thank you for providing the link and I shall print out the pages and read through them...because I truly believe that what someone thinks means nothing...WHY they think what they do MEANS everything...

Gulp and a puff to ya...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:39 - ID#25490)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:41 - ID#401460)
Fidelity Contra Fund

Looks like it is rabout ready to roll over.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:41 - ID#31868)
Nickodemus, Namaste' gulp and puff to ya...this quotes for you....................................
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. --Thomas Paine


(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:43 - ID#411320)
the dow whip effect, if you are in stocks you will feel the whip effect
Some info on what may cause this condition.

By Richard Melville

NEW YORK, Oct 28 ( Reuters ) - Absent a magical finish, U.S.
companies are poised for their worst quarterly profit performance
in seven years, shattering a pillar of the record- setting bull market.

With the results of 388 -- nearly 80 percent -- of Standard & Poor's 500 companies in the books,
operating profits are down 3.4 percent, according to research firm First Call. A decline of any sort
would be the first since 1991, a recession year.

But amid the wreckage, pockets of relative strength like technology and the fact that earnings are
topping sharply reduced estimates have sparked a recovery from the market's late summer lows,
when analysts argued that investors were scurrying to price in a doomsday scenario.

The question now confronting Wall Street is whether or not the recovery is sustainable or simply a
``bear trap'' lying in wait.

Optimists point to the fact that market's rebound has corresponded in degree and pattern to the
out-performance of earnings to expectations.

``If anything, the numbers so far are a little better than expected and last week we had a whole host
of positive numbers, particularly out of technology,'' said Jack Shaughnessy, chief investment
strategist at Advest.

Tech bellwethers like International Business Machines Corp. ( NYSE:IBM - news ) , Microsoft Corp.
( Nasdaq:MSFT - news ) and Lucent Technologies Inc. ( NYSE:LU - news ) all beat Wall Street
forecasts with profits and helped fuel a rebound in the previously beaten down group.

Small caps, where earnings have also been generally favorable, have also outperformed recently,
Shaughnessy said.

``In that way this is an old-fashioned market, where earnings still play a key role,'' he said.

But for pessimists, there is no escaping the fact that the top U.S. companies produced less profits
this quarter than a year ago and offer little hope of a near-term turnaround.

The market's recovery rally in the face of declining earnings is open to two interpretations against
that backdrop, said Charles White, managing director at Avatar Associates.

``One is that the recent ( Federal Reserve ) rate cuts served to trigger a grand new bull market that
will carry us to the new millennium,'' he said ``The other is that events in Asia and Latin America are
causing deflationary conditions to develop, in which case we are in the midst of a bear market rally.''

Of the two, he said, the second is far more likely.

``Looking at earnings visibility going forward, there is a greater deal of uncertainty now than there
has been in recent history,'' White said.

According to research tracking firm First Call, profits at S&P 500 companies were 3.4 percent
lower in aggregate versus a year ago through Wednesday morning, with the results of 388 of the
companies in the books.

Behind that figure lie some key unusual items. For example, strikes at General Motors Corp.
( NYSE:GM - news ) alone were responsible for a full percentage point of the decline, First Call said.

But there were also some grim stories Wall Street had not anticipated, such a steep profit drop at
BankAmerica Corp. ( NYSE:BAC - news ) stemming in part from losses related to loans the bank
had extended to a hedge fund.

Indeed, financials -- along with energy companies, where low oil prices have played havoc with
results -- have been a chief drag on the overall large cap profit picture.

As of September 30, financials comprised 15.72 percent of the market cap-weighted S&P 500
index, second only to technology in terms of representation, while energy contributed another 7.59

For those looking for a bright side, First Call research director Chuck Hill noted that retailers, a
group where generally positive results are anticipated, have yet to report in force and should help
trim the overall decline.

Even there, the economic outlook has become somewhat shakier, however. U.S. consumer
confidence reached a 22-month low in October, the Conference Board said Tuesday, a reading the
economic research firm said could bode ill for the critical Christmas shopping season.

Click here to find its cause.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:45 - ID#31868)
CowGirl, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...don't sell yourself short now...watchin paint
dry is an art form...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:45 - ID#238422)
You bet it's ugly. G&A guys say the same thing, although
they also say it works like a dream. I never had a chance
to shoot it and don't know when it may happen, but this
gizmo must be awfully realiable for sure, although I can
not complain about my Rem870 either....which I like very
much and hold it in highest regard as the best shotgun I
ever had. But just imagine this 12 ga. AK with hi-cap mag,
loaded with buckshot... will certainly be one heck of a
firearm - self defence dream weapon!...ouch!

Good night.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:48 - ID#401460)
Things have changed!

Every body watching the Utilities?
As they try to bring the S&P back up interest rates are rising.....very interesting.^UTY&d=1ys


(Fri Oct 30 1998 00:53 - ID#219363)
Excellent points, thanks for putting them out there.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:05 - ID#34883)
poverty pimp's poem

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:06 - ID#34883)
That was wayyyy off topic.
goodnight all

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:08 - ID#24135)
Platinum ???
to all and jims ..
the silver in swiss chart scary but it is is filled
with HOPE. However take a look at the platinum in yen
chart ( and bear in mind that Japan is a major platinum
market ) .
I see first possible support at 37700 yen and last
chance at 36000. With a strong yen ( 115 ) that makes
328 and 313. with a weak yen ( 130 ) that makes 290
and 275. Could we see another platinum/gold cross over??
Look at the chart and tell me what YOU SEE.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:16 - ID#411163)
Oris- AK 12 guage. couple of nice things to add.
A shorter barrel
Larger magazines
A pistol grip.
I really like the detachable magazines. Ever try reload in the dark
one at a time? I just bought a bunch of 00 buckshot 2 3/4" the 3"
ones have too much recoil. Recovery with the 2 3/4" is much faster.
Who needs a subgun? 12 is much better! 12 9mm rounds per trigger pull.
Hope I never need them. Fear I will.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:21 - ID#252150)
Now we have a 25 yr old posting wisdom.
If he had any wisdom, he would realize that he has no wisdom.

Steve in TO
(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:25 - ID#287337)
Squirrel - You're right, the time's not quite right
to buy gold yet, if profit is your motive. But the time will come, and when it does people who know how to recognize the signs of the times will make a *ton* of money.

On the other hand- if security is your goal, I think you should be slowly accumulating a hoard of gold coins & bars, buying with cash. The price isn't going to get significantly less than it is now, and you should buy small amounts at a time, anonymously with cash. Remember the old saying "out of sight, out of mind." No reason to attract the attention of Big Brother, or your neighbours, or the local burglars . . .

- Steve

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:26 - ID#386245)
Other metals
Gold and Silver Bugs:

It is worth your while keeping an eye on the prices of other metals. Gold and silver are often mined in conjunction with other metals, copper in particular. When copper mines close due to low prices, a lot of gold and silver will subsequently NOT hit the market over succeeding years.

If you are into gold miners such as Centaur ( CTR ) , remember that the prices of nickel and cobalt will greatly affect the share price. Whatever gold/silver shares I am holding, I find out what other metals they mine, and what proportion of their income is derived from these metals. I then watch those metals as closely as the precious.

This site also gives inventories and comment:

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:33 - ID#386245)
Lots of great metal links(Harr harr)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:39 - ID#252150)
Contango@The CBs & big players are doing well because of the contango
in the AU mkt. If backwardation were to occur, they would no longer do well & would lose. Since they are in control, do you think they will permit backwardation? Just a thought.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:40 - ID#386245)
USGS metal info

Steve in TO
(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:47 - ID#287337)
Open-Loop: I hate to have to be
the bearer of bad news, but chewing tobacco causes buccal ( mouth ) cancers. It can help you quit, because it gives you a little bit of nicotine, not as much as a cigarette, and if you cut back on your chewing you can gently go tobacco-free. But you have a very high chance of getting a tumor in your gums, or jaw, or cheek if you keep chewing it . . .

- Steve

(Fri Oct 30 1998 01:58 - ID#252150)
For the Kiwis@Had an amusing experience tonight with a Kiwi.
He was visiting his daughter in L.A. & was on a trip to Seattle & decided to take the ferry to Victoria. I met him in our downtown Legion & we played some pool & it turned out that we had both served in our respective Air Forces. He was a rather gruff fellow & talked loudly because he was a little deaf. Anyway, he was telling us about a cricket match in which the NZlanders played against the Indians. A native Lady behind us heard him mention Indians & immediately took offense because she thought he was talking about B.C. Indians in a derogatory fashion.
She got a little loud, but fortunately I was able to convince her friend that he was talking about sub-continent Indians & we managed to calm her down.

His name was Osborne & the last I saw of him he was rushing out of the Legion to catch a taxi back to the ferry with about 15 mins to spare.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:06 - ID#243235)
american eagle bullion
can anyone recommend a dealer with a good price on a quantity of 1/10 golden eagles - i'm talking about 100 units...what are the odds of my getting a 100 at $31-32 each?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:11 - ID#25490)
Good story, eh.
I've heard stories of kiwis in Merka too. Often we're amazed at how polite you are, particularly in the South, where being rude can ensure a short life. Most of us are pretty relaxed

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:12 - ID#252150)
USD down but so is POG@No negative correlation.
I would'nt be surprised to see sub 290 next week. Should have shorted PDG again today. Just proves again that almost always in trading we need to do the opposite of what feels right & easy.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:17 - ID#256254)
Comex gold stocks...
Comex gold stocks

743,518 0 0 0 0 743,518
83,571 0 0 0 0 83,571
827,089 0 0 0 0 827,089

I know that I have not been watching this very closely lately, but this seems quite low. 83,571 ounces of eligible gold in comex, at $292.30 ( gold at the spot price 00:14 ) it takes only $24.5 milion dollars to clean out the eligible stocks. I know that the USG is all powerful, BUT something seems to going on here that folks ought to pay attention to. I believe fox-man was noting that comex silver stocks are getting quite low also.

Just think about it, for all the paper trading going on at comex, there is only 83,571 ounces of the real item.


Gold 27,000
Silver 12,000
H.G. Copper 14,000

27,000 contract traded today alone, representating 2.7 MILLION ounces.

As of yesterday delivery notices are ( contracts ) :

-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --
SO FAR FOR OCTOBER 4,358 271 4,463

That translates into 446,300 ounces some folks say they may possible want to get from the eligible stocks. Ouch! 83,571 ounces - 446,300 ounces = ??? How does Rubin calculate this???

Yes, I know the price is dropping for gold, BUT it seems the stocks are disapearing also. What is going to happen if this trend continues?? Is it possible that when comex gold stocks go to zero so will the price of bullion??? Maybe Al and Rubin think so, most certainly they want the public to think so. Well, I guess I will continue to wait and see. Maybe it is time to buy a little more bullion.

Get up the great posts. Say hi to SDRer for me.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:21 - ID#252150)
Aurator@I'm in the south.
Southern British Columbia.

Interesting to note that according to Osborne the most southern point of N.Z. is around 47 degrees south. He was telling us about the fierce storms from the southern ocean & here in Victoria we're at almost 49 degrees north & real storms & gales are relatively rare.

Night all.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:22 - ID#252391)
To Disney / Platinum in Yen
I don't normally look at Platinum / Yen charts when its dark outside and especially not at Holloween - far to scary - I'll have bad dreams - sends shivers down my spine. But since YOU asked I took a peak - but just a quick one.

Plat two months ago broke down out of an ascending penant formatation dating back two years plus. The break down occurred at 47500 yen per oz.
Since then it has been pretty much straight down with a momentary pause the last couple days which will be taken out with new lows for the move when the chart is next updated. I don't see any waves, just a straight line DOWN - this looks like the side of Mount Everest. Where will it bottom??? When does it stop going straight DOWN!!!

I hope you are right and that 37700 yen per oz of PT which isn't far away will put a hold on it. I am long SWC wanting to buy more, and while SWC has some of their PT price hedged and or price guaranteed at higher levels, a good final spike down might help me get off some remaining good buys. PT falling is telling us industrial production isn't good, same with copper. Certainly if PT gets down to the price of gold which happened a few years ago it should be a buy and since gold isn't going above $315 any time soon PT has another 35-45 dollars to fall.

ON DOW and S&P - bears shouldn't forget the second round of the Japaneses Big Bang coming December 1st. Trust funds will be able to invest oversees and in the US market for the first time and those folks aren't affraid of a little 50 times PE. And you know, I've been in and out of the stock market for the last several years and I've noticed I've made more money in than out. I've made more money following the bulls than the bears. The bears have always said there's the big one coming - it hasn't. The bulls say "stay the course buy the dips" - the bears say "the dip buyers are going to be wrong one of these days big time" - they haven't been.

Goldbugs are loners, in the minority and like the miners, nonconformists. DOW and S&P players are joiners, optomists.

Dow 10,000 before Gold $315

Now see John Disney what a bad mood that Plat/yen chart put me in - wooo!!! Better go look at some Lucent or P&G or Yahoooooooo.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:24 - ID#367411)
@John D & Jim re Pt in Yen

Noticed your mention of Pt in yen, but the figures/units you use are different than those that are standard here ( yen/g ) . Finished the day at 1226 yen/gram for Oct. 99 Pt.

Pls visit the following site for a good collection of Pt charts in yen:

What do you think chances are the short-term bottom at 1205 yen will hold?

If it doesn't, it seems like it would be awfully hard to blow through the historical low of 1134 yen.

What do you think?

Have a good one,


(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:34 - ID#252391)
To James and A Goose
Absolutley agree that in trading you have to do the opposite of that that comes easiest - you have to put yourself in an uncomfortable position. I haven't worked out how that works with supposed rational observation of the market. I think if you used the rule: never buy rallies and never sell falling prices and did the opposite of what was comfortable you'd make money. For example when silver was rallying last couple of days - that felt good in confimred my belief of what should be happening - SELL!!! Stock market was crashing, Dow below 8000 I thought good just as I thought the system is falling apart - BUY!!! For this to work the market has got to go to some extremn and the more extremn the feeling or rightous the triumph seems the stronger the signal.

Regarding the comex stocks - AGAIN - stocks have fallen prices have fallen - conclusion: level of stocks is inmaterial to the price. We have enough history to see that - when there is a change wake me. What are the wwarehouse stocks of PT and PD - ZERO ( almost ) are their prices screeming up the charts - NO.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:41 - ID#252391)
The trend is down - the odds favor 1250 breaking. Logically I think that PT has a certain value based on what it has been in my experience. I think $325 is about as low as she'll go- but the trend is down and catching falling knives is dangerous.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:42 - ID#25490)
RU an acronym of Tetra Hydro Cannabinol?


Miles and miles of Antarctica and The Great Southern Ocean means that the southern latitudes, and he's talking of the Auckland Islands, I think, are hundreds of miles South of the Southern tip of the South Island of NZ. Cold, and damp. But the best oysters and crayfish, paua and muttonbirds in the world.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:46 - ID#386245)
I've just finished negotiations with the Argentine government. Have traded their 1.54 million gold coins for the Sydney Harbor Bridge. I even threw in the Opera House if they deliver within a week.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:52 - ID#367411)
@ Aurator & Jim
Hi Aurator!

"RU an acronym of Tetra Hydro Cannabinol?"

I can only reply that I AM THC!

S'up Jim!

"The trend is down - the odds favor 1250 breaking. Logically I think that PT has a certain value based on what it has been in my experience. I think $325 is about as low as she'll go- but the trend is down and catching falling knives is dangerous."

Pls compare the yen price moves of the PMs with the price moves of the yen/$ exchange rate. I think you'll agree that the fall in the dollar/rise in the yen is the main factor in the nasty yen-Pt chart. Will the current downtrend continue? That would necessitate a further decline in the $, which may cause doubts about the wisdom of international investors having so much money in US$ & dollar denominated bonds, equities, etc. I don't think that anyone wants to see the US, the last big bull, to tank. Therefore, my gut tells me that someone will try to keep the yen/$ rate from going too much further.....where the "authorities" will start to take action is probably the most important issue here...........


Any idea of where the exchange rate pain threshold may lie?

Good luck to all,


(Fri Oct 30 1998 02:54 - ID#386245)
C'mon Goldilocks(Dec gold down .40)
Quit eating porridge and do something.
ERLE--I offered them New Zealand for the coins and they replied "Do we have to take the inhabitants as well?"

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:02 - ID#25490)
Ya trying to get a rise, ocker?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:02 - ID#256254)
You could be correct, maybe Comex stocks are not important to the trading of the underlying gold contracts. I just find it interesting. How many folks will trade straight paper gold with no hope of ever getting the bullion? As for the stock market, I no longer look at it. I am not much interested in bonds or treasuries either. I think the game is now in the us dollar. Where is the us dollar heading? Let us look at the usg and all the wonderful things that they are doing for its citizens and all the people around the world. Asia, Russia, Brazil, ... the list is endless. I think it is time to watch the us dollar. What impact if any could it possible have?

Off to bed, got to get ready for work. We are working on getting funding, just like the rest of the world.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:02 - ID#386245)
G'day THC
What a great set of Japanese platinum etc. charts. I will have to ask my daughter ( who studies Japanese ) to help translate.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:03 - ID#341227)
@JIMS...December Gold down Sixty Cents...
Not as weak as one might expect after the Great American John Glenn Celebration...and so close to the elections. All this Bullish positivity filling the air and gold continues to hold its own. It really is a Gold Bull.

Interesting, huh?

Just thought I'd comment on your investment advice...never buy rallies and never sell falling prices.

I agree that this strategy has often worked in a "rational" market....but when the market becomes irrational ( as equities markets were during most of '96 and '97 ) , then your rule does not seem to apply. In those particular markets, the rule that made you money was very all rallies and buy all sell-offs. In other words, the market moved in a de facto vertical upward line with occasional one or two day sell-offs of little consequence.

Also, I would agree that,historically, COMEX gold/silver inventory movements have had little to no effect on price movements. HOWEVER, if gold is truly undergoing a paradigm shift ( and as you know, I have written on this topic supporting this view ) , then I would strongly suggest you pay very close attention to these gold inventory movements over the next month or so.


Although your view that, for example, Plat's nearly zero inventory has little effect on promoting a continuous upward price in that metal, you must also recognize that low inventory for Plat is a relatively "normal" condition for this particular metal.

Conversely, low to nil eligible inventory for gold is a truly "abnormal" condition for the gold metal, as compared to historical inventory levels. Its sudden appearance should create tremendous psychological, perceptual changes in traders' attitudes to the yellow metal.



(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:07 - ID#377196)
@ Nick@C
I didn't say it'd go up tomorrow. Wait for the stock market to get a bit more messed up, ditto the dollar, and then Gollum's golden rocket will take off nicely. But as long as people are still geared to think stocks will go up forever, they will and gold won't. But perceptions are slowly changing even now. Go gold ( hopefully soon ) .

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:09 - ID#333126)
russia's debt woes - update

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:10 - ID#333126)
russia's 2nd largest bank closes

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:13 - ID#386245)
John Glenn is not really circling the earth. He is currently on the back lot of the Disney studio sipping pina coladas. Just ask m*.

You don't think, in your wildest dreams, that the Democrats would have orchestrated the 'John Glenn Show' just before an election?? They wouldn't do that, would they??

Would they??

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:22 - ID#25490)

Now I know where Mo is, he's directing the John Glenn movie at Disney and so can't post.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:23 - ID#39857)
Nick@C.....selamat djalan.....saya bagus bagus

are Disney supplyen his vitals.....I would love to take just a little peek.
anyone know what bits and pieces fell!t! wouldnt a been
the tiles.......thats for is just spin spin spin..and I'm getting good at it myself.....oh my.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:35 - ID#386245)
G'day Auracious
Have been trying to get a rise out of gold, mate--with little success. I chickened out of another position today. Took a bird in the hand. Am still long stainless steel. Some will know of which shares I speak. Getting bloody frustrated at the gold market. I thought I could read a chart. Need to do a refresher course in 'Manipulation 101'!!

I hope mo is not sitting in custodial care somewhere. Not many people insult me as well as he does.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:36 - ID#28882)
@farfel re Gold warehouse stocks (your 3:03).

Generally agree with you; however, I think gold warehouse levels are much less significant than you apparently do. Remember -- there are 6000 tons ( 180 mil ozs ) at the NY Fed. If you are on the short end of a contract and don't have COMEX stocks on hand, all you gotta do is call a dealer and he can: A. Arrange to have Fed gold trolleyed down the couple of blocks to a COMEX warehouse or B. ( more likely ) arrange to have an off-exchange offsetting transaction. I know, I know - Fed gold is short gold - but there nonetheless liquidity out there.

Not the case with silver. Stock-to-use ratio here is paper thin. They can step on the gold market for some time to come ( I know, I know - like compressing a spring ) ; no can do likewise with the silver market.



(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:37 - ID#25490)
Jalan Jalan you crazy hedgehog.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:39 - ID#25490)
So I have something to aspire to....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:41 - ID#340383)
Maybe the ens have rights, but remember, they don't justify... %^ )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 03:47 - ID#25490)
Greetings! This 6,000 tonnes at the NY Fed, we've often wondered here whether it is actually there, or, perhaps just another moon-landing chimera...
Any idea when merka's gold was last independently verified? Sounds like a job for .....who?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:05 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Thurs 29 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.56---------------1.32-------------1.39-----------------1.75
( Change ) ---- ( - 0.18 ) -------- ( - 0.09 ) ------- ( - 0.03 ) ---------- ( - 0.02 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----2.80--------------2.00--------------1.40-----------------1.25
Silver Lease Rate---2.42--------------3.22--------------3.57-----------------3.50
( Change ) ------ ( +0.40 ) ------- ( + 0.20 ) ------- ( + 0.05 ) ---------- ( + 0.10 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .

Note: After Tuesday's sharp rise, Silver Lease rates rose further on Weds & Thurs.
These higher rates are caused by lower Silver Lending Rates. The higher spot price ( the divisor in the Contango or Forward calculation ) combined with forward prices which have not risen so much, seem to be the reason IMHO.

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:16 - ID#24135)
I would be dombfounded if the
chart for platinum in yen looked
different if it was shown in yen
per oz or yen per ton or yen
per gm or yen per grain or yen
per molecule or yen per bucketfull..
Are you having me on ???????

(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:20 - ID#39857)
yeh...... palms with honour
I think I'm on my forth interlooping rebirth of my contrarian thought patterns........ahh ......I think thats right

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:23 - ID#24135)
space travel ..
for Nick ..
dont think M ever questioned man in orbit .. I think
he choked on man in outer space and man on moon ..
the subject of fake moon visit seems dear to your
heart .. hope you havnt invested in moon rocks !

(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:27 - ID#28882)
Hey aurator! (NY Fed gold)

The NY Fed gold ain't America's -- for the most part it is Eurpean soveriegn gold, shipped over here after WW2 in fear of a red sweep. It's the gold that has been the source of "market liquidity" for the last decade or so. Used to be 10,000 tons; now down to 6000 tons. Hmmm.

This number is from GFMS. I can only presume it is accurate.

cheers, Dr.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 04:31 - ID#413109)
Platinum ANOTHER opinion
Not meaning to get into someone elses discussion, but since I do
have a contrary opinion, ( surprise ) , I wish to state it, if I may.

The near term action looks to me as though it's finishing a pattern
which is meant to look bearish, but if it ends near or better still
above the 340 level, I believe that's a good sign. It means they've
shaken out the weak holders, read stops, and have gone back into the
pattern and should now begin a bullish pattern, or up move.

Will it last? who knows! We take the little steps, before we leap.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 05:14 - ID#224230)
Bulls are supposed to have balls - AURATOR.....
This gold bull seems to have been operated upon with extreme prejudice...poor thing.

Aurator - checkyerinbox

(Fri Oct 30 1998 05:46 - ID#386245)
Sorry mate. Wasn't talking to you. Was referring to the one that leaves home looking for bears ( with my usual tongue in cheek ) . Forgot there was a poster here with that handle.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 05:59 - ID#26793)
It's a close call for Brazil

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:03 - ID#26793)
Glamis news

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:08 - ID#26793)
Silver price rise said to be the result of Christmas gift demand.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:11 - ID#26793)
Getchell news

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:14 - ID#350145)
Dabchick - lend rates and lease rates
can you please explain the difference between lease and lend rates? thanks

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:15 - ID#25490)
Sam. Crusty. Ft Knox. Esoterrorist. chasabar. Nick. Antipodean Contrary Newsletter... Andy Smith...
Interesting thought that, that the gold in the Fed was actually European gold. THing is, there are a number of sources that suggest that US gold ( some of it confiscated from US citizens ) was shipped to Germany in 1932-38 to help pay for the war effort. ( That's the Nazi war effort. ) Crusty RandLord Disney has been on a longtime quest to find data on changes in CB holdings in the first 3-4 decades of this century.

If the data is ahhemm, "out there" one would hope that it will be posted@kitco.

Thing is, there are assertions about Gold being stored at Ft Knox 'never being independently scrutinised'

So, to say it is European gold may not be entirely accurate...who knows?

Wouldn't it be a pisser if there was no gold in Ft Knox at all? Like all those James Bond films were, you know, not real.

I have posted some time ago about the last Congressman who said he was planning to look inside Big Knox...he never did.
There was once a band of Kitco Privateers planning a raid on Ft Knox, I don't think they ever made it back.

check your tea-leaves



And the ens don't pay taxes..



If you are uncertain, then best you sit on your hands? Decide in haste and repent at leisure.
This En El EM movement has created quite a groundswell, money is starting to pour in. I wonder whether the Editor of the Antipodean Contrarian Newsletter would think it an appropriate subject for comment?

What do you think, Andy Smith?
If ya don't front up. Mayhaps I'll be forced to reprint George Cole's "Ode To Andy Smith."

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:17 - ID#24135)
rose colored glasses
reify ..
you always think things will go up.
and they will too. but plats already
down to 332.. weak hands are shaking.
so are strong hands ..
make a note .. a shortage of platinum
eagles doesnt translate into rising
prices ..
Before plats goes up .. well it just
has to stop going DOWN now doesnt it.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:21 - ID#26793)
China says it is immune to financial crisis because it does everything just right.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:21 - ID#29048)
Silver Rise attributed to Indian Demand and Technical Traders
October 30, 1998

Silver Gains, but Rally May Be Losing Steam


Silver prices, on a roll since last Friday, continued to tick upward, though the rally may be losing steam. Traders and analysts said a number of factors both technical and fundamental were at work in the market, which had been lingering in the doldrums around $4.80 a troy ounce through much of the month.

Many traders, however, said technical influences were the biggest, as the
rising prices triggered orders to buy more silver and thus pushed the market even higher. Technical traders buy and sell markets based on historical trends rather than on fundamental supply/demand influences.

"Technically the picture looks very good," said Scott Meyers, a senior analyst at Pioneer Futures. He added that many technical orders hit the market earlier in the week, after it broke through the critical $5 level. "The feeling today is that settling again above $5 is favorable for higher prices. Today's was the highest settlement since early October," he said. Mr. Meyers added that he thinks the price must clear $5.21 if the rally is to regain its earlier momentum.

In trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, silver for December delivery settled up 2.7 cents at $5.075 a troy ounce. December gold, which hasn't climbed like silver, gained 40 cents to settle at $294.80 a troy ounce.

Silver prices are up almost 20 cents since last week, finally breaking out of the relatively low range they had traded in for two weeks after falling from highs near $5.40 an ounce in mid-September. The recent rebound has come nowhere near to recouping last month's declines.

But John Levin of Mitsui & Co. in New York noted that the market had built up a large number of bearish bets, or short interest, a situation that ultimately needed to be offset by buying to close out positions. Then, he said, on Wednesday, "a large industrial buy order was executed in London. The timing may have been either coincidental or calculated, because it happened just before over-the-counter $5 October call options expired." Call options give their holders the right to buy the underlying instrument at a certain price. With silver prices on the rise, such calls were executed, leaving those who had sold them without buying silver to cover the position in need of the metal and scrambling to buy.

Joseph Rosta, a metals analyst with CPM Group, a New York consultant, said buying in India may also have fueled the price climb. "Our sources tell us at least 10 million ounces were imported through legal channels in the first half of October," he said. "That compares to 1.7 million ounces in the same period in 1997." India is one of the largest silver-consuming countries in the world.

Despite the confluence of bullish factors, Mr. Levin of Mitsui was skeptical that the rally would endure. "I'm not convinced it has any real momentum behind it," he said. "Based on the current evidence, I don't see anything to take it higher."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:31 - ID#25490)
Trouble ahead. Trouble behind. And you know that notion just crossed my mind
Casey Jones you better watch your SPEED :- )


(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:34 - ID#413109)
John, what can I say
Date: Fri Oct 30 1998 06:17
John Disney ( rose colored glasses ) ID#24135:
reify ..
you always think things will go up.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:38 - ID#288115)
Wyzzard- Your 2:06
You might try giving Franklin Sanders a jingle, I've just recently purchased 1/10 oz eagles from him and was very pleased with his price and expediancy. Below is the link to his website.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:40 - ID#365216)
to Cowgirl
Proof Platinum Eagles are fine if you want something to look at
and never sell. As an investment for profit, they suck. Stick
with the bullion, pay about $20-30 over spot, and get ready to
go AAAHHHHHHIIIEEEEE! when platinum skyrockets over the next few

That is all. Good people to deal with include Monex, Blanchard,
and Certified Mint.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:47 - ID#335190)
All is well eh! @ Be Quiet...Consume...And Die (Hi to all..I am gone. Take Care)
October 30, 1998

Markets brace for G7 assault on financial reform

LONDON, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - Markets on Friday nervously awaited a Group of Seven ( G7 ) action-plan on global financial reform, hopeful of measures to help crisis-hit emerging markets.

The G7 has stepped in because market turmoil was threatening to unhinge the world economy. Leaders are concerned markets had become too volatile to work effectively, creating a so-called "credit crunch."

The group's aim to introduce a new "financial architecture" is also likely to include greater regulation of international capital flows and more transparency in market disclosures, according to various government officials and media reports.

The market was also awash with theories as much about what the G7 might be doing privately as much as about the specific measures it would announce publicly.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 06:59 - ID#288466)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:02 - ID#350194)
@6 Pak and Kitcoite Toronto area dinner.
We know that you are gone man, but the question is - are you leaving us for the morning? ;- ) Don't forget, I still have your consuming button from Aurator. Which reminds me - its almost time to have another informal Kitcoite get together. Who volunteers to organize the S. Ontario chapter this time?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:02 - ID#288466)
Mid Am Gold & Silver charts

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:08 - ID#432148)
Financial Search Engine and Directory
This site seems to be well organized and may be of some value to research minded Kitco folk. I have no vested interest in it ;- )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:14 - ID#31868)
Well...there are a few good kids out there...yEEEEEEEEEEEEEEhAAAAAAAAA!!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:14 - ID#280214)
Rich @ 00:43 Around here retail business confidence is poor at best
Your post only confirms what we felt in our guts & checkbooks for months. Sales are down more than just a seasonal slump. I expect a quarter of our retail core to turn over or fold in the next 6 months and another quarter before Christmas of 99 - that's half of my fellow merchants and likely on of two long-time locally owned independent majors - a hardware and drugstore.
Add to that newbies who try and fail in the next year.
The big chains seem to be still in the overbuilding/expansion phase. It will be cutthroat ( already is ) and our little throats are being cut first. But for us it is personal - not just a drop in corporate stock.

Inflation also is a helluva lot more than the cooked few percent the Feds publish. Again I was shocked by increases in my invoiced wholesale prices. Example: Have you watched HP inkjet cartridges the last few months? And many pens & other stuff too. I'd estimate 10% with HP at 15%.
I look to a dismal Christmas season and a hard time unloading leftover stock even at half price. This whole year has been down for most of us. Maybe the birds flew elsewhere - to where the Feds cook their books.
Next year will be the pits. Maybe I can sell out before the crash. No hope of selling the business - just hope that I can carve the inventory down with half price sales ( better than ten cents on the dollar at auction ) . Most of my fellow retailers are in the same boat. Bailing out can be done fast enough.

As to buying Gold - I just hope to get out with my shirt, grub, guns and a few ounces of Gold & Silver. Yes I am beginning to get scared.

This piece out of your post bears repeating.
"U.S. consumer confidence reached a 22-month low in October, the Conference Board said Tuesday, a reading the economic research firm said could bode ill for the critical Christmas shopping season."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:15 - ID#252391)
Never seen so much excitiemnt over a 20 cents rise in silver.
Silverbaron do you ascribed some particular significance to the Mid Am contract in silver.??

Notice the S&P premium to cash is 1500 points - looking for equivalent of 8600 on the Dow.

Oh and yes the correction is going to start any time now. Probably after the election??

Consistantly underestimate the strenght of the stock market and over anticpate strenght that never materializes in the metals.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:19 - ID#300202)
U.S. Sec of Defence
predicting U.S. troops to be patrolling American streets re terrorism-spotted on FreeRepublic-anyone have mainstream press url? Sounds like a done deal to me.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:24 - ID#288466)
@ Mid Am charts - no particular significance to the Mid Am contracts. I post the charts only because they have a few built-in technical indicators.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:37 - ID#341189)
Brazil is a preview of US - politics effect on economics
Brazil's civil service is huge and has a 100% of salary retirement plan fully indexed to inflation. Much of the borrowing which is now unseviceable has been to meet this monster drain. Sound familiar? Does anyone really believe that in either the US or Brazil the politicians are going to be able to take away the "Social Security" of millions? And what would it do to the economy to take billions from consumers and use them to service debt? Cure? Collapse and start over I'm afraid.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:38 - ID#284255)
What goes well with muttonbirds, oysters and crayfish, paua and muttonbirds.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:50 - ID#252391)
To Silverbaron
Thought the technical indicators on the charts might be the reason. The gold chart looks bearish but the stocastics are pretty much at the bottom and seem to be turning. Bet there's another dip down to oh let me see $290.

Silver would get me worried if the stocastics turned down at this point without getting very much into the over bought zone.

The positive silver action may get some people to believe the recession is over - what recession?

What would happen around here if the SOuth Asian economies stated turning around - their stock markets have turned, current accounts are positive ( excluding Japan ) . Currencies are rising relative to the dollar. What would be if the well perdicted recession didn't happen.

Silverbaron what's your take - buying metals or metal miner this morning on what should be a break back below 75 on the XAU?? Or just holding on hoping the correction doesn't build up any steam.??

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:55 - ID#288466)

I'm a holder here - both of the metals and mining stocks - my guess is ( as Gollum says ) this is the calm before the storm begins in a few weeks.

I may buy a little ITRO today as a silver speculation ( Tolerant1's suggestion ) which looks pretty good to me - they have much of the market cornered on silver recycling in the US and are gearing up for a big capacity expansion - great business to be in if silver takes off.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 07:57 - ID#31868)
Caper, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you...Cohen is certainly one of the single most
dangerous individuals in the US government...under Clintler and Cohen the US military has been gutted...moral is as low as it has ever been and military personnel have been chastised and convicted while Clintler gets his no sex fellatio in the Ovum Office...and while Clintler pretends to "do the work of the people" he utilizes Gestapo techniques that would make the Nazis proud...

As I have stated on many occasions the US will look and be markedly different in the next few years...Clintler sees himself as a social remodeler and activist which goes directly against his sworn oath of office...America is headed for very tough times...

In addition to the totally mis-understood role of the Internet by the social remodlers...the world seems to have forgotten how mean and tuff Americans get when they finally get pushed to the brink...tens of millions of Americans...regular folks...from the heartlands to the coasts and atop mountains are being pushed to the limit and the collective temperature is rising...

I wish it were not so but I see a boiling point in the not too distant future...hopefully clear heads will prevail...

If Clintler and Cohen and any of the other social remodlers try and put military troops on the streets of America my advice would be to duck because that will be the flash point...if Clintler trys to bring UN troops or any others to America look for an all out civil war...

The silent majority will not remain so much longer...and believe me...they are the majority...petty squabbles will be put aside when those who would threaten America and what it stands for cross the final philisophical line...

And they will not be nut jobs...they will be young and and women...housewives and janitors...teachers and executives...people from all walks of American life...of all faiths...color and beliefs...

The more things change the more they remain the same...yup...uh huh...

got freedom...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:01 - ID#288466)

My take on stochastic is that it is a good indicator to use in a market without a strong trend, but in a bull market can stay in the overbought zone for a long time, and can stay in the oversold zone for a long time in a bear market.

Right now it may be a pretty good indicator to use. I'm not a trader, so I use it more to judge when to get the best entry price on bottoms.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:05 - ID#290118)
Server access
It is only 8am Kitco time and already it is bogging down.
I just managed to load the posts after several minutes.
For a while there I couldn't get on at all.
Are we sure there aren't a bunch of computers doing
endless reloads to throw a wrench in among us dissidents?

Or maybe it is just me and both my ISPs.

Maybe I'll just catch up and stay off the rest of the day
and leave what little access we have to you pros who need it.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:06 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Glad to see you talking about ITRO
I think that company will explode of the next 10 months or so...if silver makes a big move ITRO will really take off...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:07 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Oct 1998 ) : 174.568 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Oct 1998 ) : 293.100 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 174.969 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 29 Oct 1998 ) : 294.000 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 30 Oct 1998 ) : 3.0125 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 30 Oct 1998 ) : 5.0550 US Dollars

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:08 - ID#317211)
tolerant1 - that is toooo good. Joshua talks the talk, and walks the walk
How's about a Josh Hansen for President write in campaign. Ooops, he's
not old enuf to serve. Hell, that ain't gonna stop our man Josh.

Wonder how we get him to this board. That boy needs some GOLD.
- Regards

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:08 - ID#35571)
More dollar selling

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:09 - ID#300202)
@Tall Cool One-Puffed & Gulped Out
U R a Visionary but the majority see but do not believe. The seeds are planted here & sprouting quickly but I remain a nutbar for my statements.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:14 - ID#35571)
Maybe orange juice futures?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:16 - ID#31868)
Tantalus, Caper, Namaste' gulps and puffs all around...T, we could write to the folks at
WorldNetDaily and send an invitation, in fact I will...C, don't sell yourself short...nutbar...nah...just more vocal than the norm...that is WHY those folks are called the silent majority...and the seeds and sprouts you mentioned will shame Jack and that famous beanstalk when the levy breaks...yup...uh a seething pot of hot water which in a flash goes from hot to boiling...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:16 - ID#26793)
Stand by for new world order announcement

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:17 - ID#333126)
Gollum @ medflies
wasn't Steve Blizzard mentioning some correlation between 1929 and medflies some time ago?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:22 - ID#35571)
I don't know. Where does one buy calls on droughts and dust bowls?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:28 - ID#35571)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:30 - ID#333126)
gdp figures
up 3.3% .... hmm... higher than expected...

tank bonds tank...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:32 - ID#339274)
FWIW Short term interestrates are creeping back up and
Euro and Tbills indicating a big rally at yearend and January '99.
Nasdaq will hit 1850 in a short while before a correction to
1600.The same money that is fuelling and driving up the P/E's
of the market is driving up the goldstocks as well.Even in the absence
of higher goldprices.Look at your XAU/gold spread.With a general market contraction,the goldstocks will be hit just as hard,until there is a strong gold advance above 350 and healthy dividends can be paid.
PDG at the end of '74 were 5 times earnings with a 8%dividend yield.
So we have a long way to go higher in the gold, lower share prices,with
lesser perks and overblown offices. SA goldmines run their operations out of spartan offices and pay dividends,in doing so they think of their
shareholders.All power to them.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:34 - ID#371229)
caper, tolerant1, - my browsings of the internet on y2k topics have revealed
that on 2 occasions since taking office Clinton has signed into law bills expanding the governments martial law powers. There are also posts out there detailing the preparation of detention camps. The red chinese have all but taken over one naval site ( this in Ann Coulter's book ) , someone said German military has a foothold on our soils, and Clinton supports expansion of UN forces here @ home. His has an ex-white house security head transplanted to the forefront of FEMA ( the ruling agency in martial law scenarios ) , and I've seen posted that the state governors are lining up their request for the national gaurd for the 99 new year's eve party. Canada has cancelled all leave and vacation request for their federal police at the millenium turn. As I've posted at other times the question of infrastructure failure due to y2k is probably a moot concern as the plans for imposition of martial law are so vast worldwide that I believe the infrastructure will be taken down whether the "bug" gets or not. Consider too that the Great Reckoning is long overdue and while all consequences will not be pretty it will afford governments worldwide the perfect and only oppurtunity to restructure from the chaos and ruble with a clean slate. Then they will be all clear to begin another millenium of tax and spend and currency debasement and all those other things they do so well.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:34 - ID#288186)
GDP comes in at 3.3% (I guess our economy is still a little warm)
08:31 Q3 EXPORTS FALL 2.9%, IMPORTS RISE 3.4%.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:35 - ID#224230)
For a brief moment you could have heard a pin drop. A golden pin....?
Any wagers on what specific changes to the International Financial Architecture the G7 politicians are going to come up with, that mandates a simultaneous announcement in all member countries ?

It's been REAL QUIET on both eastern and western fronts for some time now.....

I can't wait though I expect more paper money bulls$%t.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:36 - ID#284255)
Whispers from the grapevine
One of my mates who trades with *Ord M* regularly told me tonight that in the last 9 trades he's done, that none of the accounts were correct.
Mistakes plus and minus all throughout.
Plus two deposits of which he knows naught. ( $US12,000 & $US9,000 )
Someone is very generous.

On speaking to the phone operator, he has been informed that currently, this is common place. Y2k bug presumed???
Also he has been chasing up Y2k compliancy on his vehicles.
He reckons that the other people at the end of his phonecalls, have been receiving his calls with disbelief. ( Holden,Toyota & Ford )
When asked for conformation of compliancy in writing, he has been given the brush-off.,
Yet to receive compliancy in writing.
He will let me know how he goes.

Warning keep a close eye on your statements.

Also I went to the local city council today seeking information re Year2000.
Of the 6 receptionists on the front line, no one knew what I was talking about.
After numerous phone calls they tracked down the local IT person.
Apparently this is the closest that this city has come to in regards Y2k.
Total non-comprehension?????????????????????

Also went and paid the gas bill.
And the lady behind the counter confided in me that just yesterday the entire staff had been showed a year2000 video.
She stated that she was really scared after seeing it and thought that she would withdraw all funds from her bank pre2000.
Seems the word is spreading and effects are multiplying.

Have you bought your gold yet???

I'm still waiting till I sell my house.^o-o^

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:36 - ID#350145)
good silver post Gollum
can anyone explaine the difference between lend rates and lease rates as they pertain t5o silver. thanking you in advance. i think this something i need to know.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:48 - ID#284255)
The great equaliser.

But for whom??????????????????

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:48 - ID#33184)
Is GDP boosted by higher inventories a sign of economic growth?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:52 - ID#333126)
Gollum @ weird options
how do you buy puts on Clinton?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:52 - ID#339274)
Platinum hit support 335,if this doesn't hold ,the XAU rally
will unravel very quickly.Stopped out and reverse to short on the
bonds,the cash bonds showed a very important triangle.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 08:58 - ID#284255)
Seems a major reversal???
Brazil anyone???

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:01 - ID#31868)
RAN, Namaste' gulp and puff to ya...I stick to my previous post...the Internet has been
totally misjudged as have the silent majority...would that UN troops or any others attempt anything on US sovereign I and stay there...while there are some who would like to see a fight I am not one who subcribes to that line of thought...however the full weight and anger of the American people would come to bear should such occur...make no pie and the American flag are very much ALIVE and WELL...

It is also my contention that if Clintler signs an executive order of any kind the next thing to hit the page after the ink would be his brains...why do I prognosticate this?...I have stated here many times that the hard right has yet to be heard from in this country...albeit the comments of the First Bunt Cake not with standing...believe me the hard right has yet to be heard from...and they make Perot look like a hippy...

The military has been vocal to a minor extent at this point but it is clear that the men and women who are sworn to protect America have yet to be heard from in large numbers but I would suggest that the under current there is one which CLEARLY points to their disdain and contempt for the Panderer in Chief...

The American pendulum has moved too far...for too long in one direction and now it is poised to swing in the other it moves further and further in the other direction WE will become the liberals...

The more things change the more they stay the same...yup...uh huh...

PS-the Chinese military is not ready to attack...not yet...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:02 - ID#35571)
Treasury/bond marekt dive!! dive!! dive!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:04 - ID#45173)
What's up? A move out of dollars?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:04 - ID#411259)
..... JD Wrote: .....

"Before plats goes up .. well it just has to stop going DOWN now doesnt it?"


(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:06 - ID#343447)

the patient is fibrillating....the
ppt with their de-fibs are trying to determine where next to shock.....but the patient has received too many shocks to be
expected to recover....there is collateral damage of the nervous
system along with deformation of the facial muscles....the
masked ones are stoic in their prognostications....they speak
through clenched teeth of better times and a healthy patient....
the family knows the ppt can work miracles...they await a
re-invigorated significant other to once again lead the way
to prosperity....the peopleo are not prepared for the possibility
of a terminal cannot happen....yet it has, through
malfeasence of the administrators......they have created a chasm
that can/will swallow the carbo-earth-anouts and their ilk........
the chasm----debt------was witnessed for many years with no
pro-active approach to span it....and it is terminal....and
has spread across the continents of the world....

the current world-wide currency crisis can be directly attributed
to the bankers controlling the politicians.......and in so doing,
de-coupled pm's from a blank check to the printers
of toilet paper...and print they have....floating valuations
based on perception instead of reality....just as the equities
valuations are perceived, and SO REALISTIC....the peopleo have ALWAYS been myopic....

the kraal breeched....the peopleo masses freed....almost time for
them to feed.....toilet-paper-peopleo-cow-pie smells like sh!t......
and it is everywhere....


Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:06 - ID#33184)
Dollar strengthens a lot ...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:06 - ID#333126)
@EJ re: bonds
bonds usually don't like good news. this is sorta expected with those gdp figures.

then again, maybe this will turn into a rout... nah...

what I can't figure is how the US$ is rising on these figures. the growth was largely in inventory stock and services...

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:10 - ID#33184)
The dollar which was fairly steady after the Q3 GDP data, has risen following the G-7 statement. In addition the thirty year U.S. long bond is down a point. The move can be attributed to two reasons: 1 ) A 3.3% increase in Q3 GDP does not argue for lower inflation rates. Simple put, the U.S economy does not appear to be affected by the global financial crisis ( for now ) . 2 ) A big IMF war chest is seen as a stabilizing force for the global economy, in particular Brazil. So, the flight to safe financial assets is reversing...

Source: ICT News

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:11 - ID#35571)
@Cage Rattler
I couldn't have said it better myself.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:14 - ID#35571)
We may be reaching the end of the eye
Perhaps today, if not then next week should get VERY intersting.

All Hallow's eve.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:17 - ID#45173)
No doubt, lots of money goes into the stock market today that was in treasuries. High expectations have been set that stability has been restored to world markets and risks are diminishing. Let's see if Brazil, Japan, and China are really with the program.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:21 - ID#35757)
Thanks for the info a while back. I now have several Dec 99 Silver contracts. I didn't know one could do that.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:23 - ID#300202)
West German Military Base in New Mexico with no U.S. supervision.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:24 - ID#300202)
German vs West German

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:24 - ID#45173)
Gollum - End of the eye?
But the clouds have all cleared and the sun has come out. Children play in the park while their parents sit together sipping wine and chatting about the crisis that never was.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:24 - ID#343447)

gollum....keep your preciousssssss close...
the paper-tiger has the rattle-snake inside-her...
and ink upon her lips...the time has come for
her last run into the light of day................
the rattlin' snake will strike while inside...
quite a nice place to hide... whilst the poison
spreads un-abated.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:24 - ID#33184)
Credit crunch gone ?
Bank of England's Eddie George is making a statement which may suggest that MPC will not ease next week. He says that the signs of a credit crunch has lessened substancially.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:26 - ID#35571)
Japanese companies, at least, could shut down today and still have better earnings reports next quarter.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:26 - ID#286249)
There is the SDR D-Mark, the Gold-SDR D-Mark, the Euro D-Mark, AND

the Gold-SDR D-Mark and the "Euro D-Mark" are set to merge.
Gold IS a currency. Please note that the Gold XAU:SDR provides the up-side lid for the Euro-bond DEM.
Please note how the XEU:DEM is being positioned AGAINST the XAU:SDR.


Will have the XAU:SDR, SDR:XAU ready for introduction soon.
[It EXISTS! It is REAL! And it works. Now, if "they" could just bring themselves to understand that "SIMULATING" a gold standard is NOT what gold is about, we would have a start.

Working hard to get this into presentable form. Just takes so [too] long to gather information, proof it, post it, on ad infinitum. In short, I'm not meeting my time schedule. Sorry! And yes, the XAU:SDR, SDR:XAU has a "presence" beyond the D-Mark. {:- )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:27 - ID#300202)
Wine just wearin' off.
Gulped out totally

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:28 - ID#339274)
FWIW XAU to retrace 70

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:29 - ID#35571)
They only rip your face off when you are smiling.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:31 - ID#119358)
@ cherOkee.........T#1............
cherOsaki.........thanks, man, I believe........sure do. continued blessings and my prayers for your avoidance of rattlers whilest linking in az.springs salud!!!

T#1......itsa' 'bout time for our military to take D.C.. hut, two, three...four. And they have damn good firing squads, Precision, almost painless... a joy to watch. yes, G&P

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:33 - ID#33184)
ET phone home !

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:49 - ID#31868)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you and the teasing me
with such talk...if Clintler is the NWO poster child I pity them...and if the First Bunt Cake is supposed to be the new modern woman...I pity woman even more than the NWO...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:55 - ID#93127)
FT-Friday October 30 1998: G-7 draws up international financial reform plan

New system of regulation designed to prevent future global economic crises

"is likely to back US plans for a new International Monetary Fund safety net to bail out troubled countries and will urge greater co-ordination in cross-border regulation of capital flows."

"worked out in late night telephone calls between finance ministers. likely to include support for a code of conduct for all open economies, requiring common rules for disclosure of financial information and statistic on fiscal and monetary policy, with an agreed approach to corporate governance."

"Other elements include a proposal for financial institutions in the developed economies to review the practices of peers in developing markets. urge private sector banks to make a greater commitment to orderly debt workouts when economies run into difficulties."

COMMENTS: Absolutely NOTHING new. This is 'confidence verbiage'. Hey guys, we're passed that. After a certain point in your fall, belief that the parachute will open doesn't help. [Sound of believers hitting earth]

Mad Hatter
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:55 - ID#284230)
Re: ET call home!
Ummmm, Wonder what the ET's use for currency??
Or are they actually chair members on the PPT?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:59 - ID#33184)
@Mad Hatter
ET virtual currency is fibonacci multiples of the golden ratio!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 09:59 - ID#93127)
Cage Rattler--re: Eddie and the BOE
He doesn't want another Norman invasion! {:- ) )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:12 - ID#219363)
The Fall of a Market Bull
The magic of the equities has worn too thin for me. During this rally I can hear all my bull friends out there, Come on back in, the water is great, but I just can't bring myself to do it this time. I'm staying in cash and plan to watch my back. For the first time in eight years, I won't be joining in on the fun, and will be sitting quietly in something safer while the bulls play in the field. Run bulls, run, have a good time without me, I'm just going to sit and be content with my five percent interest.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:14 - ID#284255)
What happens when one goes to the moon???

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:16 - ID#33184)
A zero sum game ?
Weak Chicago PMI and new home sales below forecasts are pushing the USD a little lower.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:17 - ID#224230)
I'm English and Gordon Brown is embarassing me
The powers that control the world economy have a gullible new propaganda announcer. Enter stage left Gordon Brown. British PM manqu.

Strutting around the world stage tonight, confidently making pronouncements - as if he understands what his lines really mean......

They chose him to talk gold down a few weeks ago, now he's doing his well rehearsed Act II Scene II lines "The IMF lalalalala"

Pardon me while I stifle a yawwwwwhhhaaaannnnnnnnn

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:19 - ID#284255)
Just because
I saw this beautiful girl go by
T'was a windy day
And the wind moulded the blue dress
Round her beautiful body
In a most wonderful
Delightful and feminine way

Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast

And my eyes rested there
Happy moment!
Then drifted on to her hair

Delightful, her dark hair
Silk smooth, a lovely tress
Curled gently down to her shoulders
Which are rounded and shapely and fair
Then flowed round her beautiful features
And fell, soft, on the lovely blue dress

And her lips,
They glowed in the sunlight
I could see they were soft and cool

And her eyes
The mild eyes of a roe deer
I nearly drowned in that pool!

She smoothed the blue dress about her,
The shoulder,
Gave a cold unfriendly goodbye
And she flaunted those hips
As she passed me
With a flash and a gleam in her eye

The language she used
As she passed me,
Tho never a word she said!

So she's gone,
The girl in the blue dress

But I; I still have the beautiful blue dress
Wind blown and bright
In my head

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:19 - ID#284255)
Just because
The water is deep
My chosen friend said
But fear not, dive deep
The water is over your head

And I with her
Explored that deep
And found rich treasure
The deep waters keep

And rested in peace
On that deep timeless sea
Having tasted waters
Rich with flavours of
Our immortality

Yes rested in peace
On that quiet deep sea
Where love
Is a deep tranquillity

True, the water is deep
Just as my lover said
But there was nothing ever to fear
Though the waters ofttimes
Were deep -- and over our head

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:20 - ID#33184)
The BIG Picture
"Has anyone looked at a daily chart on the 30yr recently ?? Doesn't look like something that wants to hit new highs any time soon. A break of 126.21 could lead to a serious beating I believe. There is no historical precedent ( that I am aware of ) for a prolonged up move in stocks in occuring while bonds break. Not to meaning to bring back flashbacks of Chicken Little or anything, but looks a bit like 1987. In 1987, bonds began a major sell-off in on Mar 30 ( trendline break ) and fell from 97.24 to a low of 76.04 on Oct 19. In the midst of this fall, The Dow fell from 2746.65 ( Aug 25 ) to a low of 2469 ( Sept 22 ) and then made a 71% retracement to a high of 2662.37 ( Oct 2 ) before the next leg of the donwtrend leading to Oct 19 began. The bond market fell for almost 6 months before any major damage was done to stocks and $DEM didn't begin reacting until August 11. $DEM fell from a high of 1.9032 to a low of 1.6490 ( Nov 11 ) with only one retracement ( 1.8000-1.8500 ) . Obviously, we don't have enough weakness in bonds to warrant breaking out the lifeboats just yet but I would at least keep a life-preserver handy."

Source: Forex dealer on closed forum

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:20 - ID#284255)
Just because
We know,
Is always what it seems
And who amongst us
Can separate or tell
Dreamer from dreams
Or walk with sure feet
The narrow edge
That separates
A long dreamed heaven
From a long feared hell

Who knows
The twist of fate
The hard decision
That transforms the hell
Into desired heaven

Who knows?
It is best to pray
And have
That inner guidance
On the long hard way

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:29 - ID#333126)
sharefin @ poems
sharefin, your poems are good, but pray tell, what inspires you to be so expressive tonight?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:30 - ID#389387)
most commodities down except lumber. Yea, November is a great month
for new houdsing starts? I think not. Guess they need all that wood to build caskets for gold. It seems like there is no life left in this oft treasured relic.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:32 - ID#333126)
cage rattler @ long bonds
the bulls keep repeating the mantra "this time it's different!"

i agree -- this time, we get hit faster.

now, when will my bond puts get in the money...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:34 - ID#30345)
Anyone got a thought about this being an intentional credit squeeze, and deflationary period to make room for the euro?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:37 - ID#235209)
Y2K Issues...
Is there is one large company or government agency that is ready for Y2K, I havent found it yet. ( Anyone know of ONE organization with more than 100 employees? )

I have worked on several Y2K proposals for government organizations in the past few months. It's always the same. Give them a proposal for, say $1M, and then hear "we don't know what we will do, but we can't afford that much...." And their FY2000 begins 7/01/99!

Sharefin - There wont be any Y2K problems within your car. ( Unless you cant buy gasoline! ) The Y2K problems are in the financial systems. Yesterdays post regarding RTC hardware was a good observation, but of course, the RTC is just one of at least five weak links in the chain. Others being:
- CPU ( frequently the RTC is separate component on the board )
- The Operating System
- Functional software ( payroll, general ledger, human resources, AP/AR )
- Customized interfaces ( example: links between HR system, payroll system, and financial system that tells how much money your company is spending to pay employees )
- Data ( two-digit years )

Add another five links in the chain for each PCs, networks ( LANs, WANs ) , and telephone systems. And if you change any ONE of these, everything else if affected.

Another amazing statistic that most people dont know: about half of all information systems projects are never completed. Theyre started, companies spend a few million, and then decide that it just wont work. Many of the Y2K efforts have not even started yet.

Other than buying physical assets, I'm not certain what to do about this forthcoming mess.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:44 - ID#288186)
ravenfire; When indeed...We certainly are tested with patience.
I've been patiently waiting for Gold and Silver to make their moves,
as well. When I feel the impatience grow to the extreme and feel the
need to bail out, that's when I need to hang in there!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:47 - ID#31868)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:49 - ID#339274)
FWIW I believe the lows in platinum are made.Cyclically
the lows for gold were to be made today.A reversal in bonds
is beneficial for gold.I will become unhedged as of today
at the close.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:49 - ID#377235)
Blue dress? Was that all about Lewinsky?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 10:52 - ID#365216)
To keep your bag of gold coins and your MREs safe during Y2K. . .
Buy one of these:

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:03 - ID#287279)
Sophisticated Supporters
President Clinton's eloquent supporters speak out:

Lucinda Williams, singer/songwriter: "I think that Ken Starr is hung up sexually and that he's an attention freak."

Eddie Vedder, Pearl Jam: "Why don't we encourage Starr to spend another $5 million to catch Clinton in a lie about masturbation? This is an example of bipartisan politics ruining this country."

Jack Nicholson, actor: "This is a slow political coup d'etat. It is pretty obvious that we've got our tit in the wringer and we don't really know how to get out of it. I'm a big Clinton supporter. I think he understands the mechanics of the job better than anyone who has ever held the position, and that's really what I want."

Marilyn Manson, singer: "I think he's done a good job for the country, and I think there's no reason why he shouldn't be getting laid just like a rock star would. Do they have backstage passes for the Oval Office? Did Monica Lewinsky have to sleep her way to the president? Go through the tour manager first?"

Fat Joe, rapper: "I think he's been a great president; it ain't his fault that he's a playa. I can't be mad at him... This is a personal vendetta. How many times have you seen somebody really go through hell? I mean, not even Kathie Lee Gifford went through this sh... I say, on with the program."

Noreaga, rapper: "Clinton's my f----n' man -- he's crazy -- Clinton's the best president ever. He's a dog, and he does his job -- for real... There ain't been no wars. He's traveling to all these other countries, he's chillin', he's talkin' to motherf........, he wants to be the coolest president ever. He's f...n' all right with me."

Joan Osborne, singer: "If you are married to Hillary Clinton, why would you want to mess around with Monica Lewinsky, anyway? Why go out for a cheeseburger when you can have filet mignon at home?"

Stephen Stills, singer/songwriter: "By and large, I'm proud of what he's done. I'm very proud to consider myself a friend of the family."

Bob Weir, singer: "What we're seeing now is a coup attempt from the religious right that's supported by the unholy and sad alliance that was once the Republican Party. The religious right had its shot back in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries; the Pilgrims came and set up theocratic, totalitarian regimes, and they didn't work."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:03 - ID#365216)
T1; excellent food for thought on your post.
Even more reason to consider a good firearm purchase to protect
you and your family in the worst of times. Suspension of our
2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms is a necessary step
towards the creation of a police state. Ask any resident of
NAZI Germany in the late 30s and early 40s.

If the Jack Booted THugs ( JBTs ) demand my guns, they can have
them: bullets first! When the Constitution is suspended, so is
my obligation to obey those who would suspend it.

That is all. Go God, gold, guns, grub, generators, and
gubment ( down the toilet, that is, for the last ) .

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:08 - ID#287279)
November 4, 1938 "Zycie Warszawy" ( "Warsaw Life" ) daily gives us a glimpse of denial heads in action 60 years ago.
On that day its been already 3 months since the British and French
intelligence had informed Polish government of Hitler's plans to attack
The main street press presented anyone urging preparation for military
invasion as "right wing kibitzers", "fear mongers" and "agent provocateurs".
They were denounced as destructive to peace and as "enemies of the nation".
They were ignored by general population and considered mentally imbalanced. ( By June 1939, most people still held out hope that war will not materialize, but started making physical preparations by storing more food than usual. Germany attacked Poland on September 1, 1939 ) .
But in November 1938 life was still good and nobody believed in the worst
case scenario. "Zycie Warszawy" writer Jakub Kaszubski was considered an
eccentric for urging the government and citizens to prepare for conflict.
( After Chamberlain's return from Germany, Kaszubski was openly laughed at ) .
Even Jewish communities did not believe that Hitler would do what he wrote about in "Main Kampf". Most Jewish community leaders urged calm and staying put to support communities.
The few Poles and Jews who chose to move to England or the US were looked upon with disdain. One year later it was too late.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:15 - ID#284255)
GOP takes shot at International Monetary Fund perks

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:17 - ID#432130)
Ive said it before and I will keep saying it...
...BEARX is a "Bull Trap"! / go gold! go silver!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:25 - ID#284255)
International Monetary Fund


(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:26 - ID#390249)
Central Banks most likely selling
according to GFMS in the attached article. Also producer hedging has kept a cap on gold price rise. Do the producers have inside knowledge on CB selling? Why else would they hedge so actively at $295-300. Also PDG stated in their last earnings report that they expect POG to be low for another two years. Do they know something we don't?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:28 - ID#45173)
Yes you have. I'm looking forward to some interesting evolution of your thinking on this.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:32 - ID#177101)
General, Shek, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the 2nd must never be surrendered
and what an interesting gaggle of Clintler supporters...I guess they must be part of the brave new world...NOT...ahhhhh...but theater is what it is all about eh...NOT...

When the pendulum swings the other way I am telling you now...WE will be the liberals...yup...uh huh...

The more things change the more they stay the same...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:36 - ID#258427)
GSR story
Golden Star says Fennell resigns

DENVER, Oct. 30 ( Reuters ) - Golden Star Resources Ltd. said
Friday David Fennell has resigned from his position as president
and chief executive officer of Golden Star, effective immediately.

Pierre Gousseland, currently chairman of Golden Star, will be acting chief executive Officer on an
interim basis. Golden Star will immediately seek a new president and chief executive Officer. Mr.
Fennell has also resigned as a director of Golden Star.

Mr. Fennell has also resigned as President of the Board of Directors and as a director of Guyanor
Ressources S.A., Golden Star's 71% owned subsidiary.

In a press release the company did not give a reason for the resignation. Officials in the company's
Denver headquarters were not immediately available for comment.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:37 - ID#432130)
Better people than I have been wrong. I just feel very strongly about this based how the fund loses 2 dollars for every 1 it makes. Its just very similar to how a "Bull" fund loses in a "Bear" market. Im not saying we are in a Bull market. ( I am a Bear ) , I am only pointing out that BEARX seems to lose more on the "upswing" than it gains on the "downswing". It just seems like a "Bull Trap" losing proposition.

Ofcourse I could be wrong. Its just something Ive been watching closely.

Thanks much for your reply : )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:38 - ID#45173)
Yes, the CBs are likely selling. So, who's buying?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:41 - ID#284255)
Not sure?
Perhaps it's the vino, or is it because these markets are so boringly predictable.
And then again I have'nt posted any of Dad's prose for a long while.
Funny but I was looking through his works for something suitable and those three were in a row and I could'nt resist.

Something to enjoy?

I'm still not convinced on the cars as yet.
I've heard both sides of all the arguements.
Also heard that lots of their chips are old 286's with RTC's.
I just dont know.
Web snippet
Here is a real-world example of a Y2K failure. A buddy of mine ( call him
"Jim" ) is the network administrator at a small ( 8 Mill/yr sales ) company. I
can't say the company name, so if you are going to whine about how I am
making this up, don't bother reading on. But I am familiar enough with the
situation ( I know some other people there ) to know that he is not making
this up. It is a manufacturing company.

"Jim" warned the company management over a year ago that the company's
software would self-destruct in October of 1998 because of the year 2000
bug. It looks out 15 months into the future and although the software is
configurable, it can't be configured to look ahead for a shorter time
period. The software is an old DOS package, and it's not Y2K compliant. It
runs everything from manufacturing documentation to accounting, payroll and
accounts payable included.

The company management dragged its feet until March. Finally, after "Jim"
threatened to quit, they decided to shell out the $100K or so it cost for
new software. Months of work followed by both the software vendor and "Jim"
to make the switchover happen. Well, here it is the end of October, and the
new system isn't up yet. They started too late, so the old software is
still running, and is peeking over the Y2K boundary.

There have been problems. The database files get scrambled on a daily
basis. "Jim" has to edit these files manually with a hex editor to fix
them. The headers get screwed up, and he uses a hex editor to side-by-side
compare the old ( good ) file with the new ( screwed ) file. Then he guesses
what to edit to make it limp along for another 4 hours. Sometimes the files
can't be repaired, and the lost data must be re-entered from paper copies
( if any exist ) .

The real kicker came the other day when they ran Accounts Payable. They are
a wee bit behind on their AP, so they paid out partial payments to many of
their vendors. A total of $150K worth of checks was printed, and promptly
mailed. Shortly thereafter, the system crashed yet again. The record of
the latest checks was lost. Since a large number of vendors were paid, they
now have no idea of what they owe to any vendor. It effectively destroyed
all records of their AP.

Y2K is serious. This little manufacturer is wasting lots of time fighting
Y2K problems ( 100 man-hours this month so far ) , and is losing money from
lost information. And they are in good shape - my friend "Jim" saw this
coming and insisted that the problem be fixed at great expense to the
company. He is a big asset to the company, so they listened when he
threatened to quit. If he were mediocre, they probably would have called
his bluff. They will be ready ( supposedly ) on November 1st. But there are
THOUSANDS of similar small companies that haven't shelled out big bucks for
a fix. They will start seeing problems soon. And the problems will get
worse and worse as more routines look past 1/1/00.

Although this company is experiencing lots of computer problems, the
customers have yet to find out. The customers can only interact with the
company via telephone with the sales or service departments ( or www ) , so
internal problems are easily concealed. But their efficiency and
effectiveness has been reduced significantly. And it has cost them dearly
both to fix the problem and to not have it fixed in time.

I hope this provides a small example of what Y2K can do. Computers are
boring and unimportant devices - until they quit working. There are very
few companies that can survive for long without their data.

Wasn't Joan Osborne a vegetarian???

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:42 - ID#371229)
Ran-dom ruminations of taking it all in

The space shuttle takes off losing a 17x30 drag chute door just before take-off. As it was too late to scrap take-off we get spin. It also hit a main thruster valve, but what the hey take off was a beaut, Clinton was watching cameras are rolling problem diverted until it is a problem. No need for an operable drag chute until landiing eh?
IMF & treasuries ready to bail Brazil. Austerity measures to be voted on. Bleed the people and protect that currency and those bond rates for the the wall street banking investors. The wonder is that the Brazilian people themselves accept this, but then the alternative is to float the currency now rather than later. Given the choice between now or later it is always later.
We always chose avoidance of pain, immediate satisfactions, instant remedies and anything that can be put off until a later date will be. We are taught in our schools one very important overiding lesson. Respect authority, and authority very often comes with a degree. So if an opinion is expressed it must come from mr. professor at blah university.
Whatever talking heads say-is. The sheeple mentality yes.
The lazy desire to be placated, the request to have government solve our ills lighten our loads, and every request exacts a heavy price- freedom.
A dear friend gave me a poster which I have framed on my wall. It shows thousands of sheep heading to a cliff with only ONE headed in the opposite direction,
the cartoon bubblespeak out of the loan sheeps mouth--- "Excuse moi, excuse moi". Indeed!!!
Sharefin- yes I understand the poetry. Let us stop to focus on what is beautiful and worthwhile and give thanks for these oppurtunities to advance the reasons we here on this
earth to begin with.
An editorial aside to some who have posted that all is in God's hands. IMHO I think not for He does not claim the atrocities of man, this darkness is but the maya of illusory realities. He sees not the bad, nor the good as they are only tools that we must learn to tire of , and so seek that peaceful refuge in the unity of His love.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:42 - ID#430260)
ROTFL! Clinon's supporters accusing Starr of being hung up sexually.

Theater of the absurd Tolerant1. --Al

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:44 - ID#222186)
H E L P !!!
XAU has stopped "trading" at 11:13:07 EST, but HUI and GOX are still active. Did one of the XAU components get halted??? Please talk to me.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:46 - ID#225236)
Shek - Poland 1938
I appreciate your attempt to show people's inability to see the light using the WWII as an example. But to be historically accurate, one must state that it was mainly the Western Europe that refused to see the light. As soon as Hitler came to power ( 1934? ) Poland mobilized its forces and was going to take the idiot out ( it would have been very easy then, witch Germany still devastated by the hyperinflation and without the rebuilt arms industry ) .

Poland was accused of war-mongering by Britain and France. Under intense diplomatic pressure ( you know these know-it-all god-like British diplomats now staring in Bosnia ) , Poland agreed to can its attack plan in exchange for the military alliance with Britain and France, with express guarantees that, if Poland were to be attacked by Germany, Britain and France would come to its defense. Later, when it was obvious to everybody what Hitler was up to, Poland was urged ( using the agreed upon with Britain and France rules of engagement ) to postpone general mobilization plans time after time. When Poland was attacked on Sept. 1, 1939, Britain and France did nothing.

Also, few Poles ever had any illusions about coming conflict with Germany and or Soviet Union. In the early thirties, they started working on cracking the German military codes ( the Enigma ) , they succeeded in being able to crack all of them. At the outbreak of WWII they have transferred all their work ( together with the first mechanical code cracker to Britain ) , only to have brain-dead Brits take credit for all of it. For example, in the Anglo-centric world, Turing's mechanical code cracker is considered to world's first computer. ( Never mind it was totally ripped off the Polish model developed long before and completely based on theories developed by the Polish mathematicians during the course of pursuing the Enigma ) .

Like it or not, it is only in the English-speaking world where the general population was bread to believe any garbage they are told by the government. US population of today ( just as pre-WWII British population ) is totally ignorant of history, geography, real economy and for that ignorance they will pay the ultimate price.

In Russia today, the distrust of the government is so advanced that no paper money will ever be accepted. Russia has no choice but to return to the gold standard. And this of course shall be a blessing in disguise.

Why worry about the Y2K or anything else if the government told you not to?! They are so competent and trustworthy.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:48 - ID#219363)
@Gwyz, EJ
Well, what can I say, it's impossible to argue a case for BEARX during a big rally *grin*. But for certain the last few years, the height of the bull market thus far, has been a giant bear trap waiting for a trigger. Fully one quarter of the world's economy saw negative GDP this quarter. With the drop in corporate and junk bond markets, companies will have a harder time getting credit from the markets for continued growth. Revenues from outside the country have fallen off, and the magic GDP number we got today reflected a loss from over-seas business and a good bump up on consumer confidence within the states. But, that's OLD news, because confidence has been falling recently ( check out those new housing starts ) , corporations are starting to curb their plans for expansion ( check out the demand for equipment ) and over-seas revenues have started falling with more velocity. I guess what I'm saying is, I'll put my money into the things I see the most potential in, but for equities in general, I'm just not seeing it anymore, I wish I were, because it's been easy money for most of recent history.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:49 - ID#432130)
Wow! Very well said!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:50 - ID#222186)
H E L P !!! (2nd Request)
XAU has stopped "trading" at 11:13:07 EST, but HUI and GOX are still active. Did one of the XAU components get halted??? Please talk to me.

This is here-and-now stuff, not 1938!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:51 - ID#365216)
So Joan O. finds Hillary attractive....hmmmmmmmm!
What do you expect from someone who sings: "What if God was one of
us?" Watch out Joan, you might end up being another victim of
Arkansacide, if you be messn wif Bill's woman.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:53 - ID#287279)
During Lewinsky Affair, Clinton Fired Envoy for Sex Misconduct
At a time when Clinton was involved in an "inappropriate" sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, he fired the ambassador to Eritrea, John Hicks, for sexual misconduct with two U.S. Embassy employees.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:56 - ID#432130)
I agree with EVERY word you just said. My only problem with BEARX is that, based on its recent performance, I think it "bet the farm" on much lower market numbers. I think because of that, it is going to see big losses in the next couple of months. Regarding your thoughts on investing in those things which suffered during the "Bull Run" these past years ( like gold! ) , yes I ABSOLUTELY agree with you. My problem is with BEARX, and BEARX only! I believe what you are saying is all true!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:56 - ID#287279)
Y2K Bug???
A software bug at the National Association of Securities Dealers is causing the release of incorrect information on the daily changes in some mutual funds' net-asset values, the Wall Street Journal reported today.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:58 - ID#350194)
Korondy - Phoned my reliable broker and he says she's still trading and presently at 74.77

(Fri Oct 30 1998 11:58 - ID#252150)
Cyclist@Hard to believe that PDG's dividend was 8% in 74.
I wonder how many people who piled into PDG recently are aware that they recently cut their dividend by 2/3 & now pay a munificent .4%.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:02 - ID#243235)
gold bullion
can anyone recommend a well-priced source for 100 1/10 oz golden eagles? what kind of premium can i expect to pay on this size and quantity?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:03 - ID#43185)
Smelling the roses in the eye of the storm
Life is beautiful. The IMF is funded. The economy is better than we thought. Japan and asia are turning the corner. DOW is up by leaps and bounds. Everyone is happy, happy ,happy.

If you really have to sell, the time to do it is into a rally.

Good news and euphoria is like a rally. If anyone has any bad news to sell us, it shouldn't be much longer...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:03 - ID#222186)
Thanks, Steven. The feed came back, but there is a visible gap in time.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:03 - ID#219363)
Actually I didn't see your follow-up post until after I posted my last message. Thought by saying "bull trap" that you were fighting a case for the concept of BEARX, when in fact your were talking about it's implementation and recent performance *grin*. I haven't checked BEARX to see how it's been doing in the up-swing but suspect you have a point. Kinda had that feeling a little bit when it was up 30 percent on a relatively small drop.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:04 - ID#210282)
Drag chute door
Ran: Is that a key reentry item that needs to be covered with ceramic plates? I thought the drag chute opened up after several ( hot ) reentry bounces -- can't have that chute incinerated before it is used. If so, I hope they have a spare up there to cover the hole. If so, John Glenn might get a chance at EVA as well -- if not, good thing this particular space debris is not essential. Another possibility is that they will return without deploying the drag chute -- if so they will need a very long runway. Is that VanAndenbergh AFB? Can't remember.

I wonder -- how about the drag chute itself, and the item the door hit as it fell off?

Cyclist: I hope you are right about today being a low in gold equities. I just bought a boatload of gold equities yesterday, on the assumption that the current rally is still on its way.

I find it hard to believe that the DOW will go up much further after the elections, given all of those Clintonites that will have to plead 'the fifth'. If the US markets go up anyway, I guess that means it is ok to have a man with the morals of a rock star in the White House.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:06 - ID#432130)
I have to go now, but thanks much for your reply. We seem to understand each other now, and that is very cool.

Dig it!, Namaste, and have a nice day!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:06 - ID#339274)
As the dictum goes "Buyer beware" : )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:07 - ID#119358)
@T#1 y GeneralisimO........
I don't think of Hillary as filet mignon, rather, for me, she brings to mind pig guts. With all these "entertainers and artists" endorsing Clitton.....I am finally at peace with not being a good one. Salud!!! to YA!!! ( both ) got guns, gold and groceries.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:08 - ID#287279)
December 1999???
US Martial Law Coming? Cohen Predicts Army Will Patrol Streets
Army Times
Staff/Wire Reports

US Defense Secretary Predicts the Army Will Patrol US Streets

"Terrorism is escalating to the point that Americans soon may have to choose between civil liberties and more intrusive means of protection," says Defense Secretary William S. Cohen
The nation's defense chief told the Army Times he once considered the
chilling specter of armored vehicles surrounding civilian hotels or
government buildings to block out terrorists as strictly an overseas
But no longer.
"It could happen here," Cohen said he concluded after 8 months of studying threats under the Pentagon microscope. Free-lance terrorists with access to deadly chemical and biological bombs are "going to change the way in which the American people view security in our own country," he predicted in a Sept 10 interview.
Cohen is calling for the government to step up its efforts to penetrate
wildcard terrorist organizations. "It's going to require greater
intelligence on our part -- much greater emphasis on intelligence gathering capability - more human intelligence, and it's going to take more technical intelligence," he said.
But using the U.S. military in a domestic law enforcement role would require revisions to laws in force for more than a century, cautions Shreveport attorney John Odom, Jr. "You can't do it from the Defense Department side unless Congress dramatically revises the Posse Comitatus laws." said Odom, a colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserve and a reserve Judge Advocate.
"The 1878 law specifically prohibits the use of the military in domestic law enforcement unless authorized by Congress or the Constitution and does not wllow for military intervention through action by the Secretary of Defense of even an Executive Order from the President," Odom said. We're trained from the first day of Judge Advocate school to think of Posse Comitatus !!! said Odom. "If Secretary Cohen is suggesting that the Department of Defense be involved, it may be part of a legislative package, but it will not happen unilaterally without a lot of folks thinking long and hard about it."
Cohen said terrorism would be a top priority in 5 new areas he plans to
focus on now that he has wrapped up his first defense budget, the
quadrennial review of the military and a new 4-year defense strategy. Other goals include modernizing the military, improving troops housing and other benefits, streamlining the defense bureaucracy and shaping new military relationships and contracts across the globe.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:09 - ID#177101)
wyyzard, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I am not at home at present but if you
email me at I will do my best to provide you with some options as to your request on coins and such...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:09 - ID#350194)
Back To The Future (Through Reading the Past) of Silver (and Gold)
Looking at chart someone ( gollum? ) posted this morning found at: and I note that Roughly speaking the price of Silver has averaged about $30. this century in 1998 dollars. During the same time the Gold/Silver Ratio has averaged about 40. This suggests to me that a fair value for Silver after the present markets reverse ( reality check time: 1999-2001 ) will be $30 vis a vis 1998 dollar and fair value for Gold will be $1,200 in 1998 dollars. ( Let's plan the Hawaii meet for 4th quarter 2001. )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:14 - ID#177101)
STUDIO_R, Namaste' G&P to ya...filet mignon...gag...gag...gag...gag...gag...gag...
yuk phooey....if that is filet mignon i'm havin my teeth pulled and I will get by gumming baby food for the duration...gag...yuk...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:18 - ID#240248)
Market Today
I understand that today is the end of the fiscal year for most of the Mutual Funds, hence the DOW dressing we see. I would imagine the markets will hold through the US elections next week. Then we get to hear about some of the losses from the insane hedging via derivatives.

Tolerant1, you are right on with your posts of the past 12 hours or so. I really wonder what is going to happen with social security payments etc in the coming year and the reaction from the masses. The number one express purpose of the 2nd amendment is to guarantee our right to protect ourselves against government. Gulp of Hussongs to ya...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:20 - ID#30345)
@EJ buyers (whisper) and SELLERS (SCREAM).
They call it the CB shuffle. One CB Sels to antother at a publiczed price. Another at at un publicized price for the deflationary perception effect. They do this to work out the currency exchange rates in preparation for the EUro. The Deflation trend is emphasized for the benefit of the Euros introduction.... This is negotiated amongst the politico-financial leaders ( org crime? ) they manipulat via perception not via the IMF or overt means ( too costly and bound to fail ) .

Bully Beef
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:21 - ID#259261)
Go gold!
I guess nothing can make gold go up.No form of wishful thinking has worked. I thought the gold manipulaters knees would knock at my Class action suit threat.Oh well ... I'm off to work on my log shop. It is very slow.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:23 - ID#411320)
@BillD, hope fennel's departure does not effect the stock
I just picked up some shares. What your take?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:24 - ID#33184)
Lookout ahead ...
Rubin is trumpeting G-7 cooperation and I have this strange feeling that it is all downhill from here. Europe and U.S. are on a collision course, Japan is getting tired of being brow beaten by the U.S. and looking inward anyway given its host of problems. This leaves the U.K. caught in the middle between the U.S. and Europe.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:25 - ID#119358)
my dear chef@trattoria.vesuvius has now removed our famous "chateaubriand" filet from the menu.......he has now taken ill to the whole idea of preparing beef, in its stead he is adding pate' du piggutz presidential'. G&P!!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:25 - ID#177101)
Gusto Oro, WILL, Namaste' gulps and puffs to of the absurd is right and
I must say it is interesting that as news evolves into a less than entertaining remake of history that so many of the actors support the panderer in Chief...

Social disgusts me to see what the dirtbag in the Ovum office and the rest of the swill on the hill are take advantage of the old and sick...real brave...NOT!!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:25 - ID#410196)
Trouser pockets

( The Poles know truths, let's listen. )

Who is buying the gold that the central banks are selling? The central banks a buying the gold that the central banks are selling. Gold is just being shuffled from one pocket to the other in the same pair of trousers. It doesn't matter that we can't see how it is done. Just from the point of view of volumes, there can be no other explanation.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:26 - ID#224230)
Rubin on the box
Lawrence Summers - talk about doublespeak....I've never heard such a load of codswallop.

NO SPECIFIC ANSWERS to specific questions - for a change the journalists are actually asking semi intelligent questions. Getting total NON-answers....long sentences, multiple clauses, long latinate words

Absolute bulls&%t.

Filet Mignon I ask you !....Joan dear - now I understand your pain !

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:26 - ID#43185)
Rubin and Summers: Straw hat and cane team



(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:29 - ID#371229)
JTF, spin I heard was may have to land @ Edwards rather than Florida
and that they have tested landings without a drag chute before. Anything more I do not know ie. rentry heat problems. The drag chute door is normely blown off by small explosives. The bigger point though is we will not hear of the troubles unless they have to explain much bigger troubles away.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:31 - ID#33184)

A Reuters report this week revealed that the the Medical Emergency Relief International agency said that the world faces a monumental health crisis due to the Russian TB epidemic. In a statement, the British medical group is quoted as saying, "It is only a matter of time before drug-resistant tuberculosis from Russia becomes a reality in other countries of the world." The group's spokesman said, "Multidrug resistant TB is a deadly airborne infection: it has been called 'ebola with wings.' We are calling on the world community to provide $100 million to control tuberculosis in Russia. This cost is small compared to the loss of life and economic damage on a global scale that could happen if drug-resistant tuberculosis in Russia is not addressed now." The news release said the group reported that the levels of drug-resistant TB in Russia now were terrifying and the economic crisis would exacerbate the problem.


Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:32 - ID#33184)
Remember year ago IMF meeting "the world economy is in the best shape...."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:34 - ID#93127)
Timely choice...

"LONDON ( Reuters ) -- Samuel Beckett's "Waiting for Godot" was ranked the most significant English-language play of the 20th century in a Royal National Theatre poll released Tuesday."

We wait for COMMON SENSE... {:- ( (

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:35 - ID#147201)
Donald, Rhody, Dabchick et al
Does anybody take to this triple tongue talk by Rubin & co.??

Aragorn III
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:41 - ID#212323)
Just put your gold in a cool dark place for awhile and let it ripen.
Also, keep just a wee bit o' gold in your pocket and let your mind ripen. It will. It is a GOOD thing...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:41 - ID#32078)
rocket science
For all of the non-rocket scientists here, a drag chute is not necessary for landing. At Edwards AFB, where the landing area is 20 miles long, WHEELS are barely necessary. The panel hit the frame of the first stage thruster and bounced off. Any damage is now in the Atlantic ocean or recovered. In previous shuttle landings, the chute was often not used. This is not important enough to cover up.
Don't sweat the small stuff.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:42 - ID#21275)
This must indeed be a BULL market
WJC is leading, Ruben said so, but he stumbled all over his speech. There will be an erection tomb built in the Capital rotunda to keep AG permanently, just like Lenin, on display in order to keep the markets calm in times of stress. Brazil got 90 billion to inorder to emulate Russia. Finally Bill Rogers is heavily long the market. This must indeed be a bull market.
Must be crazy, just shorted the spy.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:42 - ID#290145)
G7 News and links

Cage Rattler
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:47 - ID#33184)
The bounce of the dead cat is over
Embezzlement and fraud during Cycles of Credit Expansion and contraction

Economic cycles are the result of human economic activity, which correspond to cycles of optimism and pessimism and so credit expansion and contraction. When people are very pessimistic they are less inclined to accept promises of future performance and so money in hand is more highly valued than a promise to pay some time in the future. Correspondingly, during periods of economic expansion, all sorts of promises, stocks, bonds, etc., are often very highly valued. People are less forgiving concerning broken promises and expectations during periods of economic contraction than during periods of expansion. When everyone is making lots of money, people naturally tend to live and let live. When times are hard, people tend to be more judgmental. Embezzlement and fraud happen during good times and bad. During periods of economic contraction, people tend to be less forgiving and so more people are found to have committed embezzlement and fraud. It should therefore come as no surprise that we are now beginning to see more financial and accounting irregularities disclosed in the financial press concerning public companies. These are just straws in the wind. Expect things to get much worse if the July 1998 top ended the bull market, which started with the August 1982 low. The adjustment needed to correct for all of the misallocation of resources during sixteen years of credit expansion will be much more severe and prolonged than anything in the living memory of 97% of today's investors. It is likely that only 3% of investors in will make significant profits during the next few years. If you wish to be among that 3%, read on.

The cost of living in the USA in 1941 was the same is in 1790. Every depression before 1930 started with a financial panic during which banks defaulted on their obligation to deliver gold against bank notes and ended with banks again honoring the obligation to deliver gold against bank notes. The bank notes were receipts for gold as the USA dollar was defined as a fixed amount of gold and gold coins were also in circulation. Banks expanded credit and consequently the money supply, by issuing more bank notes then the amount of gold they had on deposit. This was profitable for the banks in that they could charge interest on lending out their own bank notes. This was possible only to the extent that they could find clients who would be willing to hold their bank notes rather then hold gold. The willingness of the public to hold banknotes rather then the physical gold was dependent on the reputation of each bank, the collateral services they provided and economic conditions. If too many people asked to have the physical gold in exchange for bank notes and the bank did not have the gold to deliver, then the bank would be bankrupt. A bank's reputation for prudent financial management was its most important asset. If the bank suffered a crisis of confidence and people were not willing to hold its notes, then it could not make money from lending its bank notes. This was and continues to be the primary method by which commercial banks and lenders make a profit, that is: the monitizing of instruments of debt. During periods of optimism, banks could issue more bank notes and so inflate the money supply. During periods of pessimism, banks found fewer people who were willing to accept promises and so the supply of bank notes in circulation contracted. One of the basic problems with this system is that it is, at least linguistically, fraudulent.

When the bank issues a certificate of deposit, savings account passbook or checking account statement in return for the money given to it by the depositor, it deliberately and knowingly creates the impression that the money is on deposit. The reality is that the bank lends that money out to, for instance, General Motors or maybe a hedge fund. Once the money is lent, it is spent like the cup of sugar you lent to your next door neighbor. It is no longer on deposit anywhere. The bank deposit is really a loan by the depositor to the bank and the bank hopes to get equivalent money back with interest from General Motors or the hedge fund some time in the future. Sometimes lenders are able to get loans repaid and sometimes they are not. Modern banking is often traced back to medieval goldsmiths who issued receipts for gold on deposit from clients. The receipts were used in commercial transactions to settle accounts. They were treated as money. There is no record of whether the first goldsmith who issued more receipts then he had gold on deposit was charged with embezzlement and fraud. Today, we simply call it fractional reserve banking and it is how the modern banking system operates. During this last credit expansion cycle the reserve requirement for commercial bank holding of treasury debt was dropped to zero. The critically important thing to remember, when everyone else is panicking during some part of the contraction phase of the credit cycle, is that the money was spent at the time the credit was extended. When debts are in default, is simply the time at which it is recognized and acknowledged that the wealth is gone. The reality is that the money was gone when it was lent. Most people understand this when they lend money to a brother-in-law or mistress. During the latter part of a credit expansion cycle, loans become particularly doggy. A Federal Reserve Bank president, in a private conversation, once explained: "USA banks' loans are just as good as their deposits."

The people running the Federal Reserve know exactly what they are doing. They are amongst the brightest financial minds in the worlds. They understand credit cycles, the political component of their task and the importance of maintaining public confidence. The contraction of credit during the 1930s was the first cycle, which did not end with the return to convertibility for gold for the domestic holder of banknotes and other financial instruments. Public tender laws required that federal reserve notes, which were no longer redeemable for gold, be accepted for all public and private debts. Convertibility, however, was maintained for international central banks until the gold window at the NYC Federal Reserve Bank was closed during Nixon's first term in the 1960s. The financial regulator has sought, in each cycle, to shore up the financial system and to smooth out the cycle and promote stable economic growth. The most important tools in maintaining public confidence in the commercial banking system, to assure the depositor that their money is safe, has been: deposit insurance and bank examinations to assure that there are adequate reserves for loans made by the banks. The formula is: the deposits are secure so long as they were covered by the loans, which are counted as assets on the books of the banks, plus the banks' capital including reserves for bad debts. In order for this formula to work, the bank examiners must be able to examine all of the credit extensions actually made by the banks. A brief explanation and history may be helpful.

When a loan is made to a borrower, the bank must set aside a certain percent of the principal amount lent as a reserve based on the expectation that a certain percent of such loans will not be repaid. That is pretty straightforward and easy enough to understand. If the expectation is, that from a hundred loans, five will not be repaid, and then a five- percent bad debt reserve would be adequate. Bank regulators need only to verify that no more than five percent of the loan will go bad. If more than five percent go bad, then bank regulators can require that the bank set aside more reserves for bad debts.

Businesspersons, both bankers and borrowers, have often sought to get around the rules imposed by bank regulators. Rather then make a direct loan; various indirect means have been used to get around the regulatory regime. Letters of credit are one example. These are not direct loans but the promise that at some future date that the bank would pay money to the order of the beneficiary stated in the letter. For a time, bank regulators did not require banks to reserve for such future liabilities because they were not yet loans. After some nasty bank failures caused in part by liabilities from letters of credit, reserve requirements were imposed at the time of the issuance of the letter of credit. Then letters of credit were written not only for future payment but also contingent on the happening of some future event. Again the regulators did not require reserves because the loan may never have to be made. Again, in the next cycle of credit contraction, some banks failed because, in part, they had many contingent letters of credit upon which they had to pay which resulted in loans for which they did not have adequate reserves. In each cycle of credit contraction, when the full facts are examined in light of the loan defaults, there are allegations of fraud. The use of lease financing is another example. This is not a loan. We own the property. We are simply collecting rent. Again the same result.

The most recent off balance sheet financing mania is derivatives. The regulators have not required that reserves be set aside to cover the risks assumed. The argument goes something like this. If we have one client that is long the British pound and another client who is short the British pound, then the full amount of the risk that the pound will go up or down is borne by one or the other client. We therefore do not need to set aside any reserve for the risk we are taking as a bank since we are only facilitating the transaction as an intermediary. The bank regulators have bought into this logic and currently there are virtually no reserves to meet the potential future loss from counter party default risk. What has been totally ignored is that when one or the other party defaults on half of the transaction, the bank will be asked to make up the loss to the other side. The bank is extending its credit when it acts as the intermediary and will be called upon to pay up when one side defaults. There are at least three trillion dollars of such liabilities assumed by the NYC money center banks. If just 10% of the clients default, that would more than wipe out all of the money center banks' capital. It is not difficult to script a number of situations under which this could occur. That is what is different this time. That is why the Federal Reserve has bailed out Long Term Capital Management LP and that is why interest rates are being dropped. There is a significant systemic risk for which there are no adequate reserves.

New technology has not eliminated the business cycle. It has however permitted the risks to be multiplied many fold. All of the solutions on offer thus far involve extending more credit. During the contraction phase of the credit cycles of the last fifty years, various reforms and micro management including the extension of more credit have been used in an attempt to smooth out the business cycle and keep consumer prices from falling. It has also served the cause of promoting political stability. In the time frame between roughly 1965 and 1982, when after tax family income is adjusted for inflation and the percentage of women in the work force, real family incomes dropped almost by half and the DJIA dropped by more than 80%. On inflation adjusted basis the August 1982 DJIA low was the same as the 1930's depression low. Inflation hid the stock market crash and depression level drop in real income. The existing economic order survived a military defeat in Vietnam, a sexual revolution and the civil right crusade. This ranks, in our view, as one of the most brilliantly successful financial monitory policy programs in history. The accomplishments since 1982 are equally impressive.

In 1982, many of America's largest financial institutions, when all assets were marked to market, had negative net worth. Worthless loans to third world countries, a 23% prime rate, 15% inflation and corresponding yield on 30 year government bonds had left multi billion dollar holes in the balance sheets of the likes of Equitable Life and many of the money center banks. The solution was to make the USA the world's largest tax haven for foreign nationals not resident in the USA. This was a deliberate conscious policy choice made by the people who control USA monitory and fiscal policy. This was done by first making bank deposits and Federal Government debt tax-free and then later extending that to state and municipal government debt and finally too private corporate debt. Trillions came pouring in. Since the DM, BP, FF, and SFr could be used to buy foreign goods and services, this permitted a higher level of spending without domestic consumer inflation. The inflation in asset prices has been spectacular: over 1,000% for the DJIA. Trees do not grow to the sky. Everything has its limit and the DJIA reached its limit for this cycle on, July 20, 1998, at 9,412-intra day. Will the masters of USA monitory policy be able to execute a third equally brilliant plan and so guaranty the continuation of USA economical and political dominance into the next millennium? Some characterized the inflation from 1965 to 1982 as a massive government organized embezzlement and theft from savers and creditors. Those who could see it coming were able to make enormous profits. Investors who understood the implications of making the USA the world's foremost tax haven, were likewise able to profit. Understanding this history will make it easier to deal with the coming changes but may not be enough to save the average investor from financial ruin. The, July 20, 1998, DJIA-inter day high of 9412 marks the high point of a credit cycle expansion that is without precedence. A dimensional change has occurred. This requires a completely new approach to investing. We are of the view that; with the DJIA over 8,500, the bounce of the dead cat is over.

Source: Baltic Banking Group

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:52 - ID#32078)
Russian attitude
This week I had a discussion about two young Russians, age 5,6, who were recently adopted by US parents. The kids felt that their new US parents owed them the adoption because a lot of their troubles were caused by the US. They weren't old enough to remember communism, but they somehow were indoctrinated already about who to blame for the mess they were living in. Of course, they are partially correct, but how do kids that age learn without being taught.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:54 - ID#344389)
Anyone have any thoughts on
ASA and AU ?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 12:56 - ID#350145)
silver lend rates and lease rates
earlier taday Dabchick showed a chart were lend rates were decreasing and lease rates were increasing. can anyone explain this to me? what are they and how are they connected. why to lease rates increase when lend rates decrease? thanking you in advance.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:03 - ID#258269)
Try F.J.Vollmer, 888/309-8189

Their buy price $32.75 and their sell price $34.75.
That's for lots of 10 pieces or more. They will quote
tighter spreads on 100 pieces.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:03 - ID#30345)
@cage rattler
Any Idiot ( read politician ) can desstroy wealth and create inflation by changing monetary policies. The question is one of timing. As soon as all the appropriate pockets are lined with commodities. Let the destruction begin. The coodinated effort to hold commodity prices down via taxation, and direction of capital to useless ends will be complete when those influential criminals are positioned to exploit the flow of captial.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:11 - ID#411320)
The stock market goes higher in spite of Read on...the fix is in
Thursday October 29, 12:35 am Eastern Time

US Q3 earnings - A broken leg for the
bull market

By Richard Melville

NEW YORK, Oct 28 ( Reuters ) - Absent a magical finish, U.S.
companies are poised for their worst quarterly profit performance
in seven years, shattering a pillar of the record- setting bull market.

With the results of 388 -- nearly 80 percent -- of Standard & Poor's 500 companies in the books,
operating profits are down 3.4 percent, according to research firm First Call. A decline of any sort
would be the first since 1991, a recession year.

But amid the wreckage, pockets of relative strength like technology and the fact that earnings are
topping sharply reduced estimates have sparked a recovery from the market's late summer lows,
when analysts argued that investors were scurrying to price in a doomsday scenario.

The question now confronting Wall Street is whether or not the recovery is sustainable or simply a
``bear trap'' lying in wait.

Optimists point to the fact that market's rebound has corresponded in degree and pattern to the
out-performance of earnings to expectations.

``If anything, the numbers so far are a little better than expected and last week we had a whole host
of positive numbers, particularly out of technology,'' said Jack Shaughnessy, chief investment
strategist at Advest.

Tech bellwethers like International Business Machines Corp. ( NYSE:IBM - news ) , Microsoft Corp.
( Nasdaq:MSFT - news ) and Lucent Technologies Inc. ( NYSE:LU - news ) all beat Wall Street
forecasts with profits and helped fuel a rebound in the previously beaten down group.

Small caps, where earnings have also been generally favorable, have also outperformed recently,
Shaughnessy said.

``In that way this is an old-fashioned market, where earnings still play a key role,'' he said.

But for pessimists, there is no escaping the fact that the top U.S. companies produced less profits
this quarter than a year ago and offer little hope of a near-term turnaround.

The market's recovery rally in the face of declining earnings is open to two interpretations against
that backdrop, said Charles White, managing director at Avatar Associates.

``One is that the recent ( Federal Reserve ) rate cuts served to trigger a grand new bull market that
will carry us to the new millennium,'' he said ``The other is that events in Asia and Latin America are
causing deflationary conditions to develop, in which case we are in the midst of a bear market rally.''

Of the two, he said, the second is far more likely.

``Looking at earnings visibility going forward, there is a greater deal of uncertainty now than there
has been in recent history,'' White said.

According to research tracking firm First Call, profits at S&P 500 companies were 3.4 percent
lower in aggregate versus a year ago through Wednesday morning, with the results of 388 of the
companies in the books.

Behind that figure lie some key unusual items. For example, strikes at General Motors Corp.
( NYSE:GM - news ) alone were responsible for a full percentage point of the decline, First Call said.

But there were also some grim stories Wall Street had not anticipated, such a steep profit drop at
BankAmerica Corp. ( NYSE:BAC - news ) stemming in part from losses related to loans the bank
had extended to a hedge fund.

Indeed, financials -- along with energy companies, where low oil prices have played havoc with
results -- have been a chief drag on the overall large cap profit picture.

As of September 30, financials comprised 15.72 percent of the market cap-weighted S&P 500
index, second only to technology in terms of representation, while energy contributed another 7.59

For those looking for a bright side, First Call research director Chuck Hill noted that retailers, a
group where generally positive results are anticipated, have yet to report in force and should help
trim the overall decline.

Even there, the economic outlook has become somewhat shakier, however. U.S. consumer
confidence reached a 22-month low in October, the Conference Board said Tuesday, a reading the
economic research firm said could bode ill for the critical Christmas shopping season.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:20 - ID#350145)
ASA: and gold
asa, like all major gold producers, shouldjust churn as long as gold remains stationary. unless you just want to buy and hold for who knows how long. this is the reason i buy juniors that have the reserves to movee with a price increase, but also the exploration possibility to jump from a good exploration hole. i.e. in a flat mkt i like a stock that also has some exploration play big enough if it hits to propel the stock. there are lots of them. it is also why i lean toward silver stocks because you just never know if it may jump. a few companies like coeur can move with a gold or silver jump or an exploration hit. i usually play the ones more in the .25 to 3.00 because when those guys hit they can explode e.g. arequipa a few years back that junped to over$36 from less than a dollar, or argentina gold right now. i don.t think asa can move without a move in gold.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW:XAU gave a buy and OEX a sell.OEX has a stop 541

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:27 - ID#269469)

Article in today's Detroit Free Press about a national shortage of a common heart medication after flooding shut down power to the lone manufacturing plant ( in Mexico ) for just 8 days. Let's hear it for Just In Time production and delivery.

Got drugs?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:27 - ID#219363)
@Cage Rattler
It's not just banks and high level policy makers. During times such as we've had over the past decade, EVERYONE screws around with the money supply. The smallest financial unit, the average citizen, does it when they create money such as a mortgage note ( thought about in reverse, it's like issuing a bond ) , carrying debt on plastic, writing checks, etc, against very fractional reserves ( savings and hard assets ) . Just about every piece of paper you sign as a regular human being, any promise you make that binds you in the future, is money, a commodity that can be traded, everything from the lease on your apartment down to the contract on your cellular telephone service, it's all money, and people get free with their commitments when times are good. Corporations are even worse because they even print money in the form of coupons, rebates, lifetime guarantees, contracts, etc, as well as traditional commitments such as bonds, equities, and the like. The amount of leverage in the system is staggering. Something as simple as loaning ten dollars against a dollar being held at a bank is nothing compared to an option against a future on a bond backed by a hundred home mortgages backed by one tenth of that money held by the bank backed by one percent cash savings held by your average 125% home mortgage owner. Now that's a friggin derivative, and you can bet it's on somebody's books as an asset.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:30 - ID#252150)
Was repulsed by the spectacle of the bumbling, egomaniacal, parastic
bureaucrats & politicians, mouthing all the expected platitudes re: resucitating the crippled economies.

They can no more arrest the collapse of Brazil & the other basket cases, than they could stop the tide coming in by joining hands & standing on the shore of the Pacific ocean. But they will manage to inflict more pain on the helpless & powerless. They are truly the scum & scourge of mankind in the late 20th century. Although they may not have slaughtered people in th Mongol hordes mode, in their own way they have destroyed the lives of 100s of millions of people. They are truly evil & I can only hope that
they will somehow be brought to justice. But I doubt if that will least not in this life.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:46 - ID#39857) is what little I know....about shuttle flight...

the shuttle will slam into the atmosphere at 27000hm/ will heat up.......the hottest parts ........the nose and leading edges will heat up to
1700C......this is easily handled by thermal protection gets so
hot that the gas around the shuttle ionises, forming a plasma..............
I'd say drag shute bay located in cool zone......and even if this shute
becomes ineffective they should be OK..............nothin but epoxy
holding on dem tiles though.......greetings........dont forget this shuttle
provides enough drag for a gay mardi gras.......

Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:56 - ID#430221)
Cage Rattler/Tolerant1
Cage Rattler: Your post on "the dead cat bounce" is the best I have read about what is going on. Many thanks.

Tolerant1: your post on the coming police state by Farah was also
most interesting. I understand it this way: When you live behind a lie
and becomne fearful of the lie being exposed; blame the victim.
This has been the case in this country for some time now. Since the
mean spirited Raeganites came into power. Clinton is another "wonderful"
example. The govt. is hiding from its fiat money scam and is afraid that
the people will come after them. They are afraid for their lives
becasue they know that none of the promises that the govt has made can
be kept. So their fear turns into a projected paranoia: get the other
guy!!!He is after me. HE wants to destroy what I have built!!! etc. etc.
It is all too human. And all to sick. And all to sad!!!

Thanks, GD GO GOLD

(Fri Oct 30 1998 13:58 - ID#34459)
Cyclist: Top Tick Sell Call
Cyclist...Your call at 1:35 caught the top tick.. Everything I follow says this rally is over in Dow ..Fibbonaci---Waves----Cycles----Time name it ,today it should be the end of the move. It may rally a bit back to go into the close but it will only be an opportunity to get short. It could be an Avalanche.........

Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:01 - ID#430221)
Another wonderful post. You are so right. And Goldman Sacs is leading
the way. I read they are buying Japan Real Estate like crasy. They want
$3.5 billion worth. Plus commondities of all kinds.

This has been going on for a year so I think 99 will be the take off.

Thanks, GD

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:02 - ID#347457)
@Cyclist (OEX&XAU)
Cyclist, I may believe and trust your technical reading of charts ( I know nothing about them ) , however, if mortals like me were suppose to follow your signals, I would be on phone 24 hrs a day and driving broker crazy with buy/sell/buy orders, changing my mind every two hours.

Well, for traders it's a different story., Me? I just sit and watch ;- )

Off to sailing I go. Watch it for me ;- )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:13 - ID#339274)
FWIW ARZ is doing extremely well as one of my core positions.
Profits should be taken at 535.5 or lower your stop 538.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:14 - ID#254288)
Aurizon......steady as she goes, earns 4 cents Can in Q3, priced @ $0.65 Can
Aurizon's Beaufor costs lower than Sleeping Giant's. Two good mines and another on the way.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:20 - ID#430221)
Happy to see Aurizon doing well. I own some. Unfortunatly at $1.20 Can.
But the results are great. Hope their new project beats all hopes. I
might even make some money. Now if Castro would just die and someone
good come to power maybe my Holmer will skyrocket. They own some of the
best mining properties in Cuba.

Go gold. Thanks, GD

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:22 - ID#252150)
Just shorted PDG & bought some more BGR Prec mtls wts
One of them may work out. The BGR shares are trading at around 10.20 Cdn, a 30+ % discount to NAV. I paid 2.00Cdn for the Wts which expire in 2004. So if the shares just get to the NAV I will be considerably ahead. With tax selling still ahead for reatail investors, they may still get cheaper.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:24 - ID#31868)
GoldDancer, Namaste' Gulp and a a word...
agreed...yup...uh huh...

Gold Dancer
(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:24 - ID#430221)
Would you please repeat that advice on ARZ. Profits at 535.50? The
stock is .63 cents canadian!!!!!

Thanks, GD

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:24 - ID#264322)
KORONDY 17:04 Post Oct. 29th
Read your post with great interest. Please elucidate on the import of your November 11th date please. Thanking you in advance!!!!!!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:29 - ID#331387)
High yield market and 'mark to market'
I would bet the bid/ask in this market is fictional. I'll bid 98 for that ( YOUR ) piece of paper if you will bid 98 for that ( MINE ) piece of paper. Also, it would appear the capital markets are FROZEN with legitimate borrowers forced to pay much higher spreads than in the past. Thus, any deal has to consider the higher cost of capital lower the purchase price to the seller. Seller cannot take that 'haircut' and thinks he/she can ride out storm. Lots of funds,companies, and governments are waiting for an improved environment. Markets rarely accomodate the majority. P.S. Good think LTCP partners were smart. I asked a broker friend if any of his clients got wiped out in August-October. No he said - fortunately my clients were not smart enough to do those transactions.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:29 - ID#252150)
35-45 billion will be the amount of losses that we will share with the greedy banks
& speculators who lost in Brazil. I dion't remember getting a check for any of their gains.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:31 - ID#222186)
Nov. 11: A number of factors, some of which I do not care to discuss here. 11/11 is usually a powerful date historically. Also, the ten-day grace period is up on intergovernmental loan payments that are due on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. I hope this helps, King.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:34 - ID#339274)
Those numbers were for the OEX,as I just got stopped out.
Would be nice that ARZ would have those numbers now,I expect in the
future over 5 dollars

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:35 - ID#254288)
Gold Dancer.....we call them freemarkets

If it's not those b*astard CB's and the friends at the bullion banks, it's sure to be some tin pot dictator upsets the applecart.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:35 - ID#434298)
Mooney@12:09 your historical Gold/Silver ratios could also portend
Unless another major use of Gold & Silver comes to our rescue.
A drop in Gold to $200 with today's price of Silver or
A POG of $120 with Silver at $3 cuz of digital photography.
What use could save us from this fate?
Gazillions of Gold & Silver coins sold to the masses to buy groceries and 6packs of Golden with!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:38 - ID#31868)
ahhhhhh...ya...Clintler was elected by the majority...NOT!!! "doing the people's work"
is one of the Chief Panderer's favorite lines...which people? Quoted from the article listed below:

Even when the presidency is at stake, turnout typically hovers just over 50 percent. In 1996, it dipped below that level for the first time in 74 years.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:42 - ID#31868)
Grizz, Namaste' gulp and a puff to to the matter at hand...please wake up
to the smell of developer...Digital will not affect silver for many years to come...period...end of is simply not feasible nor cost effective and will not be for a long...long time...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:49 - ID#30345)
@ Please give me more control
The people who put guys like these in policy formulation positions want to scape every last bit of wealth up before it is OK for capital to flow in any particular direction. They must know of it to exploit it, hence more regulation. It is getting too expensive to combat the errors of policy descisions with first order remedies ( ie the IMF, BIS ) . These remedies must be emploed when the timeframe required for policy decisions to have effect on market is too long to avert disaster. The invention of the derivative has accelerated the level of risk and the potential for capital flow beyond a stable lead lag time frame for the politico-financial elite to exploit.

We don't need more regulation and public funded bailouts. We need to take these instruments away from the Idiots, and reduce our TAX burden.

Friedman: "Businessmen should not
have a free insurance policy every
time they take a risk in global
markets. The Mexican bailout helped
fuel the East Asian crisis that erupted
two years later. It encouraged
individuals and financial institutions
to invest in the East Asian countries,
and reassured them about currency
risk by the belief that the IMF would
bail them out if the unexpected
happened and the exchange pegs

"By encouraging people to speculate
with other people's money, the IMF
has been a destabilizing factor in
East Asia. Not so much because of
the conditions it has imposed on its
clients, whether good or bad, as by
sheltering private financial
institutions from the consequences of
unwise investments."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:53 - ID#219363)
I seem to remember a certain senator expressing like comments to AG after the bail-out of LTCM.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:54 - ID#266105)
Wanniski long winded on the numeraire

It is important that gold be seen as this elemental unit of
measure, at least in its role as the most monetary of all
commodities. The several billion transactors on earth need a
common starting point, from which to measure their value in
terms of capital in combination with labor. You cannot measure
two media with the same standard of measure -- you cannot
measure a length and a liquid with the same ruler. The use of
gold as numeraire is critical to people as they go about their
daily lives. It is not enough for them to know the price of
everything in dollars, the official unit of account, when that unit
varies from day to day relative to gold, which people have used
for millennia to calibrate relative values.

( ... )

Why has mankind selected gold as the numeraire over the
course of civilized history? Because of its several physical
characteristics. It is first of all a precious metal -- a tiny, tiny
fraction of the earths surface. All the gold mined in the history
of the world would not be sufficient to build more than half the
Washington Monument. It is also soft, which means it is useful
as money, because it could be easily divided into fragments of
different weights. It is also dense, which means it is portable,
taking up very little space in comparison to its weight. As a store
of value, it was better than just about anything else, because it
could be easily hidden or transported. It is durable, lasting
millennia without being altered by chemical change, by rust, by
weathering. Hit a diamond with a hammer and it is worthless.
Hit a gold bar and it will change its shape a bit. And it is not so
scarce as to be found only in selected places. Civilized man
could find this rare commodity just about everywhere, on all
continents, which meant that it would be recognized as a
commodity of value throughout the world. There are a host of
other reasons that have been given on why nothing else but gold
will do as the numeraire. These are the most common.


Cage Rattler/12:47-- good one on credit expansions/contractions.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:58 - ID#43185)
Sometimes you get in trouble by doing a bailout

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:58 - ID#30345)
Well maybe he is one politician I wouldn't want loaded into the shuttle and shot into space. By funding these one way tickets I'm sure we could save money in the long run.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 14:59 - ID#287279)
Y2K problem averted!!!!
Fed's Kelley-recession unlikely from Y2K problems

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:01 - ID#43185)
Look out bonds and treasuries

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:03 - ID#43185)
No crash on schedule for next week

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:08 - ID#254288)
Grizz @ digital photography

According to a past quip by Bill Gates, digital photos will not make inroads to silver's use in photography for the next 5 years. Then we have many people who may never afford the necessary equiptment costs for such digital magic.

Assuming the end of silver's photographic use, one positive factor is that recycled silver supplies would be cut considerably.

With currencies suspect, the additional supply of silver can be assumed available for circulating silver.

Or am am I just raving?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:10 - ID#30345)
Time to blow up the balloons!!!!!!!! And then the Fiat!!!!!!!


(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:13 - ID#93127)
Play it again, Sam...louder, faster, more dissonance...
2.2.2 Drexel Burnham Lambert ( 1990 )

In February 1990 the Drexel Burnham Lambert ( DBL ) group collapsed, the initial cause being severe liquidity problems. The Bank of England had to intervene, as a facilitator, to minimise the impact of DBL's problems on the counterparties of one of its London subsidiaries, Drexel Burnham Lambert Trading ( DBLT ) , which traded as a principal in the foreign exchange and gold markets.

As market awareness grew in February of the extent of the problems in the DBL group, DBLT's counterparties became progressively less willing to incur intraday exposures to it in the settlement of their FX deals. At the same time DBLT was unwilling to pay the amounts it owed on maturing
deals, because of concerns that the counterparties might decline to pay the other currency involved and instead set off the receipts from DBLT against amounts due to them from other companies in the DBL group.

After intensive discussions with DBLT, which was required to produce evidence of its solvency, the Bank of England put in place a settlement facility, which remained open for a full week, to resolve this developing gridlock. Under this facility, DBLT's counterparties were invited to pay
amounts due into accounts held in the Bank of England's name with the Bank's correspondent bank ( in almost all cases the central bank ) in each country concerned. Once the Bank had received confirmation that funds had been credited to these accounts it informed DBLT. DBLT then made irrevocable payments of countervalue to each counterparty directly, using funds made available for the purpose by its immediate parent company. Upon receipt of these payments the respective counterparty was asked to confirm to the Bank of England that it was prepared for the Bank to release the relevant deposit to DBLT.

Several key factors were present in the DBLT case which might not all be present in other cases of FX market gridlock.

Crucially, DBLT itself was solvent, and it had a relatively small FX
book, almost flat in non-dollar terms, and with relatively few forward deals. Its immediate parent in the DBL group was willing to provide the initial liquidity needed to enable DBLT to settle all amounts due. Finally, the Bank of England was in a position to act as a neutral facilitator, acceptable to all parties, and was able to work with the management and staff of DBLT, who remained in place for the whole of that week.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:14 - ID#34459)
Cyclist: Blow Off Top

( The Fat Lady is Singing )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:22 - ID#31868)
Grizz, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...did not mean to land hard on ya with the digital are some links which will carry further the comments I made to you...I hope you enjoy them and the spirit in which they are sent to ya...

There are a number of barriers that limit the acceptance of digital cameras in the consumer market, however. Apart from the subpar image quality, digital cameras are part of an imaging system that includes computers and printers. Their penetration is thus limited by the available infrastructure, that is, the number of households with a PC.
Second, there are immense storage requirements both for the camera, and the PC at home: An acceptable quality output for the consumer market requires files of 2 MB for each image -- including data compression. The equivalent storage capacity of a 24 or 36 exposure roll of film would thus be between 48 and 72 MB. Cameras would thus need to include memory cards or PCMCIA hard disk drives of that size -- a very expensive proposition. The price point to beat is about $12 -- the cost of a 36 exposure roll of film including film processing. On top of that comes the gigabyte hard disk drives required for saving all the files unless they are immediately printed out.

Finally, the size of the incumbent $10 billion film and film processing market is itself a barrier to the penetration of the consumer market by digital cameras.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:23 - ID#252150)
A lot of the MF Mgrs have been buying the high-flyers, including the
AU mjrs in order to dress up their portfolios. Be interesting to see what happens on Mon. S&P could be down sharply.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:26 - ID#219363)
Cover your heads, investors just threw a brick in the air, it's bound to land next week.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:30 - ID#258269)
@Buy Price Gold Coins
Anyone interested in what your US Gold coins are worth?
Click on, for recent buy prices for both raw and certified
gold coins from Heritage.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:30 - ID#339274)
FWIW OEX sell signal ,cover at the close

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:40 - ID#339274)
Got out at 535.5

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:44 - ID#254288)
Assuming that Homestake repudiates the bid,

erh the ravaging of that portion of Prime Resources Group that it doesn't already own.

Prime Resources with about 12 million annual oz. of silver production, not to mention gold production is first class XAU MATERIAL and could easily sell for over $20 bucks US, even at today's gold and silver prices.

Look at their earnings and balance sheet. IF YOU ALREADY OWN IT VOTE NO.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:51 - ID#290456)

If I may add to Tolerant1's post - a major usage in the silver halide photography market is for X-ray film. For this there is NO substitute at present in the way of electronic photography - the images of e.p. lack suficient resolution and will remain so for quite some time to come.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 15:55 - ID#266105)
FY'98 federal budget unsurplus

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:06 - ID#252391)
Jack Good Luck
Good Luck beating off the HM bid for PRU. I owned PRU for a while - seems its assets are being undervalued in the takeover. The only thing about PRU and its independant prospects seems to be the tax rate in Canada which from what I get is over 50%. Please correct me.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:08 - ID#290118)
Jack@15:08 - For a Silver lining in our pockets
If Silver stays up or quadruples then lets hear it for Silver Double Eagles! Replicas of the classic $20 Gold Double Eagle in 1/2 oz Silver ( same size but more convenient pocket weight ) . Replacing 5% of the 4 billion US$20 fiat notes with these coins would require over 100 million ounces of Silver! If the Comex Silver stocks are only 75 million ounces.....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:08 - ID#339274)
FWIW Xau closed firm,on the hourly chart it wants to rise to
88.Platinum was the key in keeping the positive picture intact.
OEX is not dead yet,lots of power left,went twice in the elevator
down,able to scalp a few points every turn.
Arz is doing great things,very powerful thrust ,expecting a buck very soon.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:14 - ID#31868)
Tantalus, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...invitation to stop by Kitco was passed on
directly to the young man in the WorldNetDaily article this very day...I kinda figure he might not stop by as he doesn't seem like the kind to enjoy his newly created celebrity...who knows...anyway...the Kitco welcome mat has been put out...tidied...and looking spiffy...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:15 - ID#288186)
Comex Gold Warehouse stocks....(no change in Gold totals)


Futures World News - October 30, 1998 16:05

warehouse stocks ( Note abbreviations--Reg = Registered;
Elg = Eligible; Tot = Total ) :

( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
Reg 269,495 0 0 0 0 269,495
Elg 21,339 0 0 0 0 21,339
Tot 290,834 0 0 0 0 290,834

Reg 56,759 0 0 0 0 56,759
Elg 47,574 0 0 0 0 47,574
Tot 104,333 0 0 0 0 104,333

Reg 417,264 0 0 0 0 417,264
Elg 14,658 0 0 0 0 14,658
Tot 431,922 0 0 0 0 431,922
743,518 0 0 0 0 743,518
83,571 0 0 0 0 83,571
827,089 0 0 0 0 827,089

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:21 - ID#252391)
Hope your are right on the XAU. Finished pretty well for a week when the metals were not very strong. SWC finished well too at 32.

Two talking heads both bullish on the stock market were both in agreement that the sector that will surprise next year is the energy sector. HURRAH!!!!

Will note that the talking head just before those two had been bearish.

FOX MAN - any silver inventories - need a good number to make my day.!!!!!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:27 - ID#288186)
Comex Silver Warehouse stocks...
( Quoted in Troy Ounce )
Prev. Received Net Chg Total
Total Withdrawn Adjust. Today
R 2,512,167 0 0 0 0 2,512,167
E 946,060 31,460 0 31,460 0 977,520
T 3,458,227 31,460 0 31,460 0 3,489,687

R 14,995,869 0 0 0 0 14,995,869
E 8,459,019 0 0 0 0 8,459,019
T 23,454,888 0 0 0 0 23,454,888

R 15,725,918 0 371,159 -371,159 0 15,354,759
E 24,603,662 599,667 95,376 504,291 0 25,107,953
T 40,329,580 599,667 466,535 133,132 0 40,462,712

R 0 0 0 0 0 0
E 5,651,860 0 0 0 0 5,651,860
T 5,651,860 0 0 0 0 5,651,860

33,233,954 0 371,159 -371,159 0 32,862,795
39,660,601 631,127 95,376 535,751 0 40,196,352
72,894,555 631,127 466,535 164,592 0 73,059,147
It looks like there were 164,592 oz's added to totals.
Lately, there has been an amount of silver received into eligible stock
at one Depository, and another amount of silver withdrawn from registered
stock at the same Depository ( or another Depository ) . Don't know exactly
what that entails, but I do see movement! And lately, it's been more going out than comin' in! ( except for today, of course ) Fox-man

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:37 - ID#210282)
Drag Chute, Russian Attitute toward USA
Larryn,Hedgehog,RAN: Thanks for the posts on the Space Shuttle. I was pretty sure they could land without the drag chutes, given they have wings. And -- yes I do recall that the space shuttle can land without wheels, though I think it does fly like a brick with stubby wings. Not a 20:1 glide path, to say the least!

I gather the hole is not in an area that heats up on reentry.

Larryn: Recently I took a ride with a Russian visiting scientist. I have never seen such hostility before, and thought it was just him. Now I am not so sure. It is quite likely that they blame us for their losing the arms race. It is unfortunate that hatred does not need to be for a rational cause -- we may be sowing the seeds for WWIII -- someday in the future. I hope not.

I do worry more about Russia than I do about China. The Chinese people are more flexible and capable of handling adverse situations. Communism has not destroyed their spirit or sense of history. The Russian people seem less adaptable ( IMHO ) , and more at the mercy of the Russian gangsters. Hence I think there is more of a long term threat from Russia than from China -- this would fit with the Fatima prophesies, and ( I think ) one interpretation of the Nostradamus prophesies.

Oris -- any comments? You know Russia, and the Russian people better than most others on Kitco. Until the last year, I have had good interactions with visiting Russian scientists.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:39 - ID#411320)
Is it true when Clinton say's the economy is great
Well now that depends on what you mean by is, and the economy afer
all what does he mean by economy are we speaking past or present
tense. If you believe Clinton, then put all your savings in the
stock market, and after you do that I want to sale you some swamp
land in the south.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:43 - ID#252391)

I like those minus 500,000 days.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:48 - ID#389387)
that's just great ... Now I know where I'll be spending my vacation time.
Oracle Y2K Compliance Questioned
( 10/29/98 4:36 p.m. ET )
By Shawn Willett, Computer Reseller News
Although version 10.7 of Oracle Applications is advertised as being year 2000 compliant, some users are finding it anything but.

In a memo sent out to 10.7 users earlier this month, Oracle issued a long list of patches fixing Y2K problems. The patches fix Y2K non-compliance in almost all of Oracle's modules, including human resources, inventory, order entry, payables, and purchasing.

In a list of FAQs sent out with the patches, Oracle insists version 10.7 is Y2K compliant, despite the patches.

"Software products by their very nature frequently require patches as needed; this issue is no different. The number of patches is very small in comparison to the amount of written code. Some touch peripheral data fields that are of no significance to many users." read the memo.

However, a quick glance at the bug list on the memo, which includes more than 20 patches, includes the following items:

For human resources: "Cannot create addresses with start dates in the year 2000."

For payables: "Batch Autoapproval does not pick up invoices with invoice dates after January 1, 2000."

For inventory: "Find Item Lots form does not perform find correctly when working with year 2000 expiration dates; GUI only."

"We upgraded specifically because Oracle said it was compliant, now we have to go through this," said one user, who did not wish to be identified.

Oracle executives could not be reached for comment, but an Oracle spokesperson said "10.7 is our Y2K compliant release ... there are always going to be patches for software."

The patches are troubling, said Jim Holincheck, analyst at the Giga Information Group, in Cambridge, Mass.

"It doesn't necessarily give you confidence that they did the right amount of testing on this," he said. "The key question is 'have they uncovered everything?' And I don't think there is any way to be sure of that."

Analysts said the patches raise questions of what the meaning of 'Y2K compliant' actually is, and if users can fully trust any piece of software after January 1, 2000.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:48 - ID#430260)
Zappa's up 28.5% today--what gives?
To: Alan Whirlwind ( 1834 )
From: Alan Whirlwind Wednesday, Oct 28 1998 7:16PM ET
Reply # of 1839
Pinky's Tailing Box: a weekly Wednesday feature of At a Bottom Now for

The GoldBug

by Edgar Allan Gust ( 1998 )

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I squandered wealth gained dearly,

Over many a quaint and curious volume of jr. miners on the Vancouver

While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came stop gapping,

As of some one there bear trapping, trapping at the bears some more.

"'Tis some investor," I soon muttered, "trapping at the bears some

Gold's up two bucks, but I'm still poor."

Ah, distinctly I remember, it was in the bleak December

My every mining stock dismembered, sate the shorts upon the gore.

Eagerly I wished the morrow;- I vainly sought to margin borrow

From my stocks, surcease of sorrow- sorrow for lost chance to score--

For the rare and radiant metal also sought by Cambior--

And Zappa drills for evermore.

And the sullen, sad uncertain pulse test of each lens with dirt in,

Thrilled and filled me and G.T. with investment errors never felt

So that now, to still the beating of my heart, I stood repeating,

"Is Warren Buffett buying silver? It's up two dimes but I'm still poor--

Some late investors buying silver;--it's up two dimes but I'm still poor

It's up two dimes, and nothing more."

Presently my soul grew stronger; hesitating then no longer,

"Sir," said I, "My broker today--a bid on Zappa I implore;

But the fact is I was napping, when the market started crapping,

And so the Fed began rate slapping, cutting interest rates once more,

That I scarce was sure a crash would ensue,"- here I bought Vancouver

Darkness there, where drill bits bore.

Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing,

Doubting, dreaming schemes for metals no one dared to dream before;

But the silence was unbroken, like a spell of J R Tolkein,

And the only word there spoken was, "Drop the bid for Cambior."

This I whispered, and said an echo "The bid went thru--your wallet's

Merely this, and nothing more.

Back into the market turning, all my soul within me burning,

Soon again I heard a lashing somewhat louder than before.

"Surely," said I, "surely that is trouble for Wall Street blue chips:

Let me see, then, what the threat is, as jr. miners for gold explore--

Let my heart be still a moment as they prove more Zappa ore;--

'Tis Whirlwind and nothing more."


Open here flung I to silver, when like an idiotic dilbert,

In there stepped a stately goldbug of the saintly days of yore;

Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he;

As if with mind of 1980, perched above my portfolio to my horror-

Perched upon the busting metals comprising my portfolio's core--

Perched, and sat, and nothing more.

Then this golden bug beguiling, Morrie and Dean both into smiling,

By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance it wore.

"Though thy investments be shorn and frozen, thou," I said, "art sure no

Ghastly grim and ancient Goldbug wandering from the COMEX floor--

Tell me should metals such as Platinum I begin to hoard?"

Quoth the Goldbug, "Nevermore."

$ $ $

From the Tailing Box...

Dear Whirlwind:

Is the pulse test for Zappa's La Plata going ahead as planned? --Ms.

Dear Ms. Systolic:

Zappa Didn't trade today so there's no detectable pulse that I can pick
up. --Whirlwind

(Fri Oct 30 1998 16:55 - ID#31868)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...what could the Russian people possibly think
of America at this point...Clintler and the other criminals yapping about this that and the other...supporting Yeltsin and yet 6 some odd years later they are damn near starving...getting ready to freeze while a select few have robbed the money YOU, me and every other American sent there...via Clintler and the rest of the government as per the tax base we provide to the dirtbags in the District of Columbia...

Clintler and the dirtbags have provided nothing to the Russian PEOPLE they have provided billions to their dirtbag counter parts there...plain and simple...

Americans are fat...spoiled and have an opinion about everything and yet do not do a damn thing with the Freedom that has been provided by those who came before them...and certainly the Americans have not helped those that so very desperately cry out for and need OUR help...

And Russia is not alone in their bitterness towards America...We the People deserve to feel shame for our inaction...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:03 - ID#288186)
jims; Me too, too. Maybe we'll see some 600k drawdowns
next week! : ) : ) : )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:03 - ID#30345)
from the NEM message bd on yahoo$r9a$>$r9a$

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:13 - ID#286230)
A Hold on Gold
Lull in fall gold rush provides good buying

Trend in reverse: Strong US dollar, calmer markets drive stocks down

The Financial Post
Analysts say stock market volatility over the past six months and crumbling emerging
haven sparked interest in the shares of gold producers, but the jury is out on whether the
rally is

From the market's peak in April to its August low, the gold and precious metals
subindex crashed
44.7%, far outpacing the 27.9% drop in the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 index.

Fears of a global recession caused by the collapse of emerging market currencies and a
slowdown in corporate earnings contributed to the carnage. Once September rolled
around and the
dust settled, investors began looking for a safe haven; from Sept. 1 to Oct. 7 battered
gold stocks
soared 75% while the TSE 300 fell 1.2%.

The trend now appears to be in reverse with what the World Gold Council cites as a
US dollarm and calmer equity market conditions" driving gold stocks down 16.5% and
the Toronto
index up 9.8%.

And September's rush in to gold miners was accompanied by only a 9.2% rise in the
price of gold
bullion to $299.85 ( US ) an ounce.

Historically, a long-term investment in gold stocks, unless during a prolonged period of
despair and inflation, is a losing punt. Over the past five years, the gold subindex has lost
annually, compared with a 7.9% gain for the TSE 300.

So why buy gold stocks now?

If you think the Middle East is ready to break into chaos, inflation about to soar,
disasters have only just begun, Asia's appetite for gold will increase, and central bank
sales have
stabilized, now is the time to buy. Also, gold stocks could be a good bet if you agree
with the
majority of analysts that the supply-demand fundamentals for the precious metal are
Over the past few years, uneconomical mines have been closed and according to
precious metals
statistics firm CPM Group Inc. in New York, estimated 1998 mine production will rise
only 1.2%
to 64.9 million ounces.

Total supply is estimated by CPM to be 101.8-million ounces, compared with industrial
jewellery demand of 104.7-million ounces. However, supplies outweigh demand if
central banks
sell an estimated 18.5-million ounces into the market rather than to other central banks.

Alastair McIntyre, director of Scotia Mocatta, says, "Everything is fairly optimistic for
gold but
what is hurting it, is central bank selling and low inflation."

The largest consumers of gold, India and the Middle East, have increased demand,
albeit from
depressed levels,and central bank selling is not expected to dramatically effect supply,
says Mr.
McIntyre. And while the performance of all gold stocks has a connection to the
underlying price of
the metal, they react differently based on market capitalization, hedging programs, and

Gold stocks with more than $1- billion in market capitalization such as, Barrick Gold
( ABX/TSE ) and Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG/TSE ) are the biggest Canadian producers in
terms of
market capitalization and make up 57% of the TSE gold and precious metals subindex.
September, those producers soared 51% and 69% respectively because investors
shifted money
into the most liquid stocks to hedge against equity market volatility.

Both have sold a significant amount of their future production, thereby limiting their
exposure to
fluctuations in the price of gold.

Douglas Cohen, gold analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Inc. said Barrick's stock
participate nicely in a gold rally while offering protection if gold struggles because the
firm has
locked in an average gold price of $400 ( US ) an ounce for 10 million ounces through

However, Barrick insiders in September were actively selling large amounts of their own
stock at
the $30 level, which could be construed as a bearish indicator.

For investors looking for a company with more leverage to the price of gold, Mr. Cohen
recommends Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM/NYSE ) . The company's production costs
of $200
( US ) an ounce are at the midpoint of the large caps. Its reserves will grow with its
property in Peru
but at risk is its exposure to Indonesia, says Mr. Cohen.

"At the moment investors should look at mid-tiers and if [they] feel like it, go for a punt
and go for
exploration companies," said gold analyst Robert Van Doorn at Loewen Ondaatje
Ltd. He is focusing on companies such as Goldcorp Inc. ( Ga/NYSE ) , which rose 96%
since Sept.
1, because in his opinion it is fundamentally too cheap.

Chad Williams at TD Securities Inc. also likes Goldcorp, which produces gold at $240
( US ) an
ounce and is developing a low-cost mine. He recommends investors look at established
with attractive projects, low cash costs, large market capitalizations, clean balance
sheets and solid
track records.

Mr. Williams says to steer clear of exploration stocks. "It's difficult for them [exploration
firms] to
get any attention. Even if they produce results, people are leery of them right now."

One exception is Meridian Gold Inc. ( MNG/TSE ) . Its shares have soared 82.5% this
placing it in the top three performers on the TSE 300 and raising it to a mid-cap.
Analysts are still
rating it as a "buy", based on increased production from its northern Chile project, which
lower production costs to $220 ( US ) an ounce.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:14 - ID#225236)
JTF: Russian Attitude toward USA
I think Russians and the Americans are missing several important points. After Russian communism approached the time when it should crumble under the weight of its accumulated stupidity, several things have happened.

1. The old KGB elite ( the real power ) , saw that they could not fight it

2. Rather than fight it, they said to their people: here, have some "Capitalism"

3. USA has played quite well into their hands. Rather than let freedom rule, the USA has sent its "magicians" to teach the Russian elite the sick game of fiat money, and the IRS agents to teach the Russian bureaucracy how to squeeze the little guy ( as if they needed it ) .

4. All that US "aid" accomplishes is final destruction of anything of sense that was left there after years of Communism
5. Brilliant -rather than for the Communists to take the heat for their idiocies, let "Amerika" be the fall guy.

6. Never since the Nazi invasion was the Russian population more united in their beliefs and more ready to get even for their trouble. Brilliant!!!

Why would US go for it?

1. US is a communist country itself ( study the "Communist Mannifesto's" "Planks" and name one that US does not espouse; then listen to Commrade Clinton's speech on how you have to "limit excessive freedoms. )

2. If any country were to become free at this day and age, this would bring US down. US is based on a financial fraud of a massive proportion. Any attempt to start a truly free country would require free money ( GOLD ) , something that would directly threaten US interests

3. Russia cannot really afford the US brand of insanity. US's insanity was founded with the wealth generated by the previously free US people and by the WWII loot ( most of world's gold ended in the USA at the end of WWII ) . Russia does not have money to finance socialist insanity US-style, even if they wanted to. The only thing that could have worked would be true capitalism a la A. Smith.

4. Obviously US has big problems. The current status quo cannot be maintained any longer.

5. US as its current government is as much a dead horse has USSR is.

6. The US elite is likely ( out of desperation ) to try the only thing that may preserve them ( a major war ) . The big question is how you start a fire without being burnt?!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:14 - ID#404246)
tolerant1 re:your Oct 30 1998 16:55

It's wonderful living in a country
where you can say what you think,
without having to think.

( The "New" definition of freedom of speech. )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:20 - ID#31868)
HARDCASE, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I am not that bright...what's your

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:21 - ID#433172)
Half full or half empty?
While thinking up some purswasive argument to buy more silver I mentioned to my wife that the silver we bought 10 years ago or 12 I forget exactly is priced today at about the same amount. Allowing for inflation then it costs about 50% less than it did then. Yippee, half-price, lets get more.Her reply was.. not such a good investment then, it hasn't gone up with everything else, it's a bummer. That would have to include gold too. I know RJ and LBG have covered this in detail, I guess I"ll hang out with the half full crowd and buy more. I did then, I will now, but if everything chugs along as usual it doesn't make sense.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:24 - ID#233199)
Any reason you know of for Argentina Gold bieng down 13+% today?
What do you know about the CO.`?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:29 - ID#413273)
Barney....Those coin prices are.... as you state BUY prices..the point here is they can't post SELL
prices.....why because there are not many to sell...Heritage is one of the big players at the recent Long Beach Show they were big buyers only problem not many sellers...MMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:35 - ID#342397)
@ Tol1's 7:14 this a.m.
That story mentioned a national ID card law to become effective on October 1, 2000.
Not that it'll ever happen, considering Y2K etc., but what's that all about?? Anyone know?

The Hatt
(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:36 - ID#294232)
Junior Golds are beginning to wake up!
The VSE is beginning to awake and a number of the prominent Companies are coming back to life. Argentina gold is drilling and has moved from eighty cents to as high as $3.50, not bad for a start. Other Companies are also actively drilling properties and the one that could have a dramatic effect is the area play developing in Nevada! White Knight Resources is awaiting assays and should they get good results the lid will blow off this area. Keep in mind they have not released assays yet, therefore my advice would be to wait to see if they get the goods before buying! If they get good results also keep an eye on Claimstaker Resources who have just put the Blackdome Gold Mine back into production and have just started a 15000 foot drill program in you guessed it Nevada!
Nevada is known for its low cost gold production and I have always wondered why more Juniors didnot pickup claims in an area that is dominated by Placer and Barrick. With economic grades you can be certain both Placer and Barrick would come knocking at the door! Take a look at their financials based on ounces produced and cost of the same. This will answer all of your questions why Nevada holds much promise for these two Juniors. Also watch Coral Gold as they too have land optioned to Placer who are about to begin drilling! I repeat IMHO the time to buy WKR is once they release assays as if they donot get good results the bids will dry up and losses will occurr. As a contrarian I believe that we are about to be rewarded for not falling into the equities trap that has been carefully set to stage an enormous transfer of wealth to the insiders on Wall Street!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:37 - ID#401460)

Oct 30

Well I said I was going to buy below 6.5, so I did. "Buy the dips"


(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:39 - ID#334219)
Simple profit taking on Argentina Gold.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:48 - ID#31868)
crossbow, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...several different views to answer your question...
regarding the national ID card that has been proposed by the United States congress...I have provided several different viewpoints to better help you form your own opinion...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:50 - ID#34191)
BEARX@$ we throw more money into this golden opportunity
or shall we hold out for $5.50 next week?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:52 - ID#28994)
I think what Hardcase is trying to say is that he does not live in a country such as our good 'ole USA where there is 1 lawyer for every 382 people. So when he calls a guy a jerk, he probably knows he is not going to be sued for 1 million Long Island greenbacks for defamation of character. Now, there is a fellow that has real freedom of speach. Lawyers have taken much of the freedom from the United States.

P.S. There are more lawyers in Philadelphia than in Japan.

Bully Beef
(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:56 - ID#259282)
Tolly I wish I could gulp and puff with ya... but everytime I do ...Ninja Warriors and
the police show up.I agree with just about everything you say. All I can say is "Man cannot stand tooo much reality." Ezra Pound...I've been through this with someone before but I have to explain that he was T.S. Elliots'editor but also a facist under Mussolini. Sometimes intelligent people get messed up. Sometimes doing things effectively is wrong and...I think I will have another beer Gidday! ( The Ninjas are very slow when I drink beer. )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:58 - ID#401460)
"Flight from quality."

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasuries ended sharply lower on Friday as an international rescue plan for troubled economies and the specter of next week's
quarterly refunding sent 30-year bond prices down more than a point.

``I think this G7 package and this $90 billion figure, while certainly not new to everybody, was
new to enough people that the Brazilian stock market is up nearly 8 percent now,'' Patrick Dimick, a U.S. market economist at Warburg Dillon Read LLC., said. ``U.S. stocks are rallying in sympathy, so you have a little bit of a flight from quality.''

The benchmark 30-year bond was down 1-3/32 at 105-10/32 to yield 5.15 percent at 1500
EST/2000 EDT Friday. The two-year note was down 7/32 at 99-25/32 to yield 4.115 percent.

The Group of Seven industrialized nations on Friday announced an agreement to provide an
extra $90 billion for the International Monetary Fund to create a new economic safety net for
troubled countries.

Friday's ``flight-from-quality'' was being exaggerated by refunding pressure, Dimick said. The Treasury is slated to sell $38 billion in notes and bonds next week.

``We've got to take down a lot of paper next week, and the dealer community has got to take down this paper at the same time they are pushing all this corporate paper on the major buyside accounts,'' Dimick said. ``These buyside guys, even though they are pretty big, they've got a limited amount of cash.''

Even a ``horribly weak'' number from the National Association of Purchasing Management ( NAPM ) -Chicago held little consolation for bonds, he said. The Chicago purchasing manager's October index printed at 48.1 versus 55.2 in September.

``It was slightly stronger than expected, but the mix was not bad,'' Dimick said. ``The mix was
actually bearish for fourth-quarter growth because although you got a 3.3 on GDP, you had a lot more inventory accumulation than most people anticipated, and that inventory has to be worked off in the fourth quarter.''

Traders also cited selling in five-year and 10-year notes on Friday.

``I've heard of a big Japanese buyers of off-the-run bonds, and I think you had a big seller of fives and 10s,'' a trader at one U.S. primary dealership said, adding the seller was said to be a hedge fund.

In other 1500 EST/2000 GMT price action, five-year notes fell 16/32 to 104-13/32 to yield 4.221 percent and 10-year notes fell 25/32 to 107-27/32 to yield 4.599 percent.

At the front end, three-month bill rates ended flat at 4.22 percent, six-month bill rates rose four basis points to 4.20 percent and year bill rates rose eight basis points to 4.01 percent.
Kind of sums it don't it. Isn't this "flight from quality" the very thing we were all talking about last fall, that sooner or later the bonds would have trouble?

Jimmy Rogers, on CNBC said today that "the Japanese money is moving into European Bonds/EUROS, and the like". And that is one reason "Greenspan Paniced"


(Fri Oct 30 1998 17:58 - ID#31868)
HARDCASE, skinny, Namaste' gulp and puffs all around...H, I tend to get real literal
on some subjects...meant no offense...s, thanks for the ear boxing...I tend to need that once in a while during my literal episodes...

Duly noted and understood...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:01 - ID#333126)
sharefin @ swing charts
I don't suppose that you could come up with swing charts for other famous crashes ... 1987, 1929 ...?

( I'd like to see similarities in them )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:06 - ID#258195)
@mole Definitions of Lease and Lending Rates
I wish you hadn't asked that question which you thrice posed ( at 06:13, at 08:36 and at 12:56 ) . I'm sorry you got no response........ And by the time you have finished reading this response from me you may well wish you hadn't asked the question in the first place!
I've been off-line all day so didn't see your question, but in the absence of a response from a higher authority like Bart Kitner himself, ( who must know more about Bullion Banks and Bullion Dealers than most ) , here is my attempt.
The concept is quite simple. Its ramifications are arcane. Here is the concept ( IMHO, FWIW etc etc Bart please correct me if you see this is wrong anywhere ) .
The $LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate ( of interest on a cash loan of US Dollars ) .
The Lending Rates which appear daily in the FT are calculated by NM Rothschild. I telephoned the FT a couple of weeks ago, to ask exactly how they calculated them, but unfortunately they could not tell me. They suggested I contact NM Rothschild direct, but would'nt give me a name or contact. I spoke to a nice young lady at NMR who promised someone would phone me back but I'm still waiting.
Anyhow, the Lending Rate is the annualised rate of return which a lender of gold gets over and above the amount of gold they lend. For instance, if a Central Bank is asked by a Bullion Bank / Dealer to lend some of their gold for 3 months, the market conditions prevailing yesterday ( Thursday ) determined that the Mean Gold Lending Rate calculated by Rothschild for 3-month gold would be 3.90% That rate is based on the difference between forward rates and spot. ( A proxy for the forward rates can be calculated - see later - from the quoted forward prices on Comex. )
The Lease Rate is $LIBOR minus the Lending Rate. Easy, isn't it !!!
The only trouble is, no-one explains why one is called a Lending Rate and the other a Lease Rate. I suspect it goes back to the days when borrowing gold was first used as a means of financing the digging of it out of the ground. I look at it this way:
If you owned a small mine but didn't have any money to dig it out of the ground, one way of getting the money would be to borrow cash from your friendly Bank Manager at $LIBOR ( if you're lucky ) . But there is a cheaper way. Ask your bank ( Rothschilds? ) to borrow a million ounces from their friendly Central Bank, and lend it on to you at the MGLR. You immediately sell it back to the Gold Market in exchange for fiat dollars ( called cash ) which you can use to pay men to dig out your own gold. Then when you have dug it out you repay the gold you borrowed, plus ounces in interest at MGLR. In effect you have leased the gold and the money you have saved by leasing it equals the difference between $LIBOR and MGLR. Hence $LIBOR minus MGLR gets called the Lease Rate. ( Sounds plausible ........but I'm not sure ) .

As far as calculating the Lending Rate is concerned, anyone can do it for themselves ( near enough ) . On Sept 28th I posted the method as follows:
Step 1. Look at the COMEX closing prices for the nearby, ( Oct98 ) , the 3-month ( Dec98 ) , and the 6-month ( between Feb99 and Apr99 ) contracts. The closing prices for each one were Oct98 = $295.3 Dec98 = $298 Mar98 = $300.2 approx.
Step 2. To get, for example, the 3-month Gold lending Rate [do not confuse with LEASE rate], subtract spot gold $295 ( say ) from the 3-month ( Dec98 ) price of $298 which give $3.
Step 3. Multiply this by 4 to annualise it = $12
Step 4. Multiply this by 100 and divide by $295 ( spot ) to get a figure of 4.07% . This is the 3-month gold LENDING rate.
Step 5. Subtract this from 3-month $LIBOR ( Say currently 5.27% )
Step 6. The resultant is an approximation for the 3-month Gold LEASE rate which worked out at 1.2% for the close in London on Monday 28th Sept 1998.

Although I am happy to put them up each day ( perhaps Bart will resume doing so some time - I gather he used to before I came on site ) I really don't know why people get so excited about Lease Rates. Some here seem to think they are a portent of great things to come. But when you think about it, ( and this week in the Silver Market has been an example ) if the spot price goes up, the Lending Rate goes down automatically, and so the Lease Rate must go up. In other words, higher spot prices bring higher lease rates with them as sure as night follows day ( assuming LIBOR unchanged ) .
Furthermore, the whole picture is made very difficult to interpret by the use of many instruments like swaps and options. I gather such instruments are employed to reduce the risk which Bullion Banks have to face when ( as they usually do ) Central Bank will only lend short-term, but the Borrowers ( Miners for Hedging and Fabricators who comprise 80% of all demand for borrowing ) want to borrow for 12 months or more. Incidentally, Central Banks seldom lend to organisations that look risky. They expect the Rothschilds of this world to carry the risk. And to reduce their risk further, I gather Central Banks are more and more employing swaps rather than straightforward lending. By using swaps, they simultaneously sell spot and purchase forward from the Market.

It seems to me the most significant use of the Lease Rate until about a month ago was as a means of watching the action of Speculators who were shorting. But here it was not the absolute Lease Rate that mattered so much as the short ( 1-Month ) lease rates in relation to the 12-month rates. Because it was thought that Speculators engaged in shorting gold would only be doing it on a near-term basis, it should be possible to know when they were at it by watching 1-month Lease Rates. The Commitements of Traders reports from CFTC are much more to the point in this respect, but they only give you a couple of snap-shots once a fortnight ( =2 weeks ) . So I suppose the Lease Rate had some use in between.

As for the ( near ) future, it could be interesting to watch what happens to the Lease Rates if and when $LIBOR falls further. For instance, if the Fed had to lower Dollar LIBOR rates to about 2%, with Gold Lending Rates at their current 3 to 4%, the Lease Rates would go negative. The only way to prevent them going negative would be for Lending Rates to fall in line. And that, in turn could only come about in one of two ways. Either Spot would have to rise, or the forwrd rate fall. But I'm still not sure which is the chicken and which the egg.

Anyway, that's my two-penn'orth. My comments are almost entirely constructed after reading the following references, anyone interested in delving would do well to go to the World Gold Council website and download the following Studies ( pdf files ) :-
Research Study No 5 ( March 1994 ) - "The Gold Borrowing Market - a Decade of Growth "
Research Study No 14 ( Nov 1996 ) - "The Gold Borrowing Market - Recent Developments"
Research Study No 18 ( Apr 1998 ) - "The Utilisation of Borrowed Gold by the Mining Industry "
Research Study No 19 ( June 1998 ) - "Trends in Gold Banking"
I'd be really glad if someone lurking out there ( as well as our learned regulars ) who knew this subject thoroughly would come in and let us all have the benefit of their knowledge.
Regards...............Dabchick ( Gone to bed )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:07 - ID#219363)
I remember when we dropped a ways I went over and checked BEARX out to see how it had done and they had a survey on there, some kind of competition, for who could pick the best short opportunity. I put in BEARX, I couldn't have been far off. Even if I won I'm sure they wouldn't have posted it, heheha.

Raven: I'd like to see that myself.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:12 - ID#304282)
ENVY- Then why don't you buy into this bear market
rally. Better yet just throw your money away. They both amount to the same thing. I'll be sur to remind you of this conversation when the dow makes a new low.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:14 - ID#401460)
Cowgirl (BEARX)

If it goes to 5.50 I will probably buy more.
IMHO - Watch Brazil. Don't believe the Numbers as they first come out of the White House. After the election they will let the markets run naturaly.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:18 - ID#219363)
I'm so short this market that I'll probably be the only person selling PUT options at certain strikes against some of these equities, because I own a good percentage of the open interest *grin*.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:18 - ID#31868)
Bully Beef, Namaste' gulp and a puff back at ya...a break from reality...Hmmmmm
o'tay...this I can do...yup...uh huh...

Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:25 - ID#377235)
Highrise you are exactly right. Brazillians are now paying 40% interest rates. This strangles an economy. I've seen this sort of thing before. When I was living in Guatemala in '91 interest rates were 36% and the Quetzal was trading 5 for each dollar. As interest rates fell as was necessary, the currency devalued by 25% and, actually, 7 to 1 was reached before it settled around 6 to 1. This will happen in Brazil too. Just wait and not long IMO. --Alan

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:40 - ID#413109)
No cash, but give me a little credit
John Disney, and look at the chart and the near term comment, and
maybe the glasses are just slightly tinted, and not rose colored.

The down trend is in tact, and one must stay with the trend that's
one's friend. BUT, one can be watching for a turn, and I would be a
nibbler, if I were seeing what I'm a seeing.

But that's what makes markets, no?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:41 - ID#413109)
To make the decisions-

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:43 - ID#34883)
Bob Weir, Jack Nickelson ? alas...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:47 - ID#401460)
Clinton set the standard...Now let's fire Clinton

By Jerry Seper

President Clinton fired the ambassador to Eritrea last year for sexual misconduct with two U.S. Embassy employees, according to a confidential report obtained by The Washington
Times. At a time when Mr. Clinton was involved in an "inappropriate" sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky and had been accused by
two other women of making crude sexual advances, he recalled Ambassador John F. Hicks.


"Whatever is good for the gander is good for the goose" Or is it whatever is good ...... whatever, and this is not a sexist comment.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:47 - ID#34883)
economics of a free society/Ropke
One year before the Nazi takeover of Austria, and after Mises had already
accepted a research position in Geneva, a remarkable book began to circulate
in what remained of Vienna's intellectual circles. It was Die Lehre von der
Wirtschaft, The Economics of a Free Society by Wilhelm Rpke.

If the Austrian economists had a textbook on economic theory and policy in
these years, Rpke had written it ( Mises's Nationalkonomie was still three
years away ) . It was a summary of the present state of opinion on monetary
theory, price theory, the business cycle, and method. Rpke emerges here as
thoroughgoing Misesian, a stalwart advocate of capitalism and free trade,
and a fierce critic of protectionism and every manner of government
interference with the economy.

The book made a huge impression in Austria, and one that the Gestapo did not
like. In 1939, the book was declared contraband, the offices of the
publisher broken into, and all copies destroyed. Fortunately, arrangements
had already been made for a French publisher, who turned out to be more
politically strategic than the Austrian publisher.

The French edition received approval of the French authorities just before
publication, and continued to sell throughout the war. The ruling regime had
apparently assumed it was just another economics text! As Rpke wrote, "The
probably explanation of this miracle is that the German censors were too
uneducated to understand the book, while those Germans who understood it
were civilized enough to rejoice at such a discovery and not to betray it."

After the war, the book was a huge success in Germany, and went through nine
editions, serving, in many ways, as the guidebook to the German economic
miracle. Far from watering down the book with successive editions, Rpke
improved it by refuting fallacies that cropped up in economics: positivism,
Keynesian planning, unionism, and much more. It was also translated into
Italian, Finnish, and Swedish.

The English edition finally appeared in 1962, but it has been out of print
for many years. In the meantime, it has become something of an urban myth
that Wilhelm Rpke was an advocate of a "third way" between capitalism and
socialism, and that he favored a wide range of interventionist measures.
This view is impossible to sustain in light of this sweeping defense of
economic freedom.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Oct 30 1998 18:50 - ID#344225)
@ Gusto Oro RE: 40 % Brazil Interest rate..
I agree with you that this stiffles an economy.

BUT---Who does make out like a bandit with those
very high rates?

US Banks & Hedge Funds who borrow GOLD, and then sell
it on the open market pay perhaps 3-4%. ( See Dabchecks post )

Then they loan it to Brazil in order to get a piece of this heavy
action. If the loan goes bad, the US taxpayer BAILS them out.

Russia sure took down some hedge funds and a few banks. Hurt
old Soros too.

The IMF already has the bucks to bail out the next set of losers.
Here we sit, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

Crystal Ball
(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:00 - ID#287371)
Nick , Thanks for the explanantion of Swing Chart. Namaste', CB

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:02 - ID#401460)
Gusto Oro (Brazil...)

Thanks for the info. If they are at 40% interest rates already how can they with stand higher rates? I still feel that 30 billion here and there, that is being thrown around, will not, in the end, solve the problem.

I may pull the rest of my IRA funds out of stocks just before the election. The key is to get accurate and truthfull international news. That is becoming difficult to do.


Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:08 - ID#377235)
Exaclty Charles...
As was posted here of the CNBC interview with Pat Buchanon, why do we bail these greedy highrollers out when they would never offer us some of their loot when they hit on a speculation? --Al

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:09 - ID#25490)
Matthew Hopkins san
your comment :
There are more lawyers in Philadelphia than in Japan.
got me thinking.... {:- )

Why so few lawyers in Japan? The answer is quite straightforward; there is a cultural restraint on conflict and a cultural goal towards consensus.

The Japanese say that everyone involved in a conflict loses, everyone. I've always liked this little Japanese Golden Tail:

A merchant was on his way to a village market carrying three gold coins in his purse. Along the way, and without his realising, his purse with the three coins fell onto the path.

A minute or two later, another merchant, also going to the markter found the purse containing the three gold coins. He picked them up, thinking that it was very likely that the traveller who dropped the coins was heading to the market, and that it wouldn't be too hard to find him and return the coins to their rightful owner. It never occurred to the second merchant to keep the gold coins, they was not his. The merchant put the found purse in his pocket.

The second merchant eventually reached the village market. He asked every vendor at every stall and every merchant he chanced upon if they'd lost a purse with three gold coins. After several hours the second merchant finally tracked down the first.

"Here, please take your three gold coins." said the second to the first.

"I can't take those coins back," replied the first.

"But they are not mine,"protested the second. "Take them and put them back in your pocket.

If those coins havent the grace to stay with me, I dont want them, said the first. You keep them, and he turned to walk away.

The second grabbed the first by his sleeve and they started to fight. Others joined in and soon there was a real commotion. The village headman was called to settle the dispute. He held the three coins in his hand and reached into his own pocket and pulled out another gold coin, so he now held four gold coins.

He gave two gold coins to the first merchant and said, You had three coins on the road to the market, and you lost all three. If you had accepted the kind return of the coins you would have your three coins. Instead you now have only two, you have lost one coin.

The village headman gave two coins to the second merchant. You found three gold coins on the road to the market. When this merchant said he didnt want his coins back, if youd kindly accepted the gift you would have three gold coins. Instead you now have only two, you have lost one coin.


It is easy to blame the lawyers, eh? There was a time, lasting several centuries, when a witch-pricker was certain of a good income, provided he kept finding witches. Once the people no longer believed in witches, there was no need for witch-prickers, so the calling died out. Thats why its damned hard to find a good witch-pricker these days.

There will be an end to lawyers only when the culture says there are other ways of dealing with disputes and you dont need lawyers. The way many talk around here, it seems that Justice may pour from the barrel of a gun in some places.

Got Witch-prickers?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:11 - ID#342397)
National ID card
I probably didn't make myself clear. I already knew what I thought about a National ID Card, I just didn't know it had gotten this far. Was under the false impression it had been cut off at the pass. Kinda like most people w/the Y2K thing. They got that figured out don't they??

Thanks for the info. You and Sharefin, among others here AMAZE me with what you can come up with. It's always appreciated.


Gusto Oro
(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:14 - ID#377235)
USA Today had an article earlier this month about Brazil and they claimed that Brazil needs to come up with 80 billion in payments by the end of this year and 220 billion by the end of next. The IMF is hoping here that the PERCEPTION of world banks coming in will stop the run on the currency and once stabilized the country could go on to dealing with making payments. This is a slim hope.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:24 - ID#20767)
Petronius: Your 11:46 ...... dittoes upon dittoes!

How sad it is to see Americans suck up to the British elite and their oligarchic minions.

Explain to the youth of today the facts and you will likely get not only looks of disbelief, but outright rejection of history. Some do not even know that two wars were declared and fought by America against the British. Fewer still understand the ongoing skirmishes with this fascist enemy and its American Tory sycophants.

Even a cursory library investigation of 'the Clivedon set', which was active between the World Wars, will show incredible complicity between British interests and the National Socialists of Germany. If only they would look.

Lately, it is interesting to note all of the knighthoods being conferred upon 'American' citizens of high station. These golden ego payoffs for loyalty to the Crown should be where the amazement and disbelief are to be found!

Bob in DC

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:32 - ID#350288)


A.= BEFORE JAN.1 1999
B.= JAN - MAY 1999
C.= MAY - DEC 1999


(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:33 - ID#31868)
oris, Namaste' gulp and a puff to your heart out...Island that is Long defense weapon click on the press release tab and look for the .50 caliber AR-50...youwzer mauser...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:36 - ID#350288)
OOPS - I meant 4 and c

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:37 - ID#350288)

I meant 4 and c

Charles Keeling
(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:40 - ID#344225)
@ Mapleman RE: your survey

I will venture a: 3.5 & a C-

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:41 - ID#34883)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:43 - ID#401460)
Gusto Oro

You just said it "PERCEPTION" It is all about what the world population perceives as reality.

The Clinton's did it first now we are all doing it. We are "compatmentalizing" just like Bill, we are all now in denial. Maybe it will work if everyone goes along with the lie.

$30 Billion will do the work of $100 Billion, the only problem with this is it didn't work in Asia or Russia. It is only a matter of a week or so.

Is Indonesian and Malaysia still out there? There has been no news from that part of the world for several months. "No news is no Bad news. What we don't know won't hurt us." "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."


(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:46 - ID#28994)
I vote with you as stated, and just added you to my list for a total of 7 on Kitco..... who think Y2k will be a bunch of overblown crap. Our numbers are growing
It is the weekend.......the far outs will just unload on you.
Uh Huh

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:53 - ID#342397)
4 & C

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:55 - ID#254239)
mapleman (3c)
and throw in a little power outage for fun to the east .

(Fri Oct 30 1998 19:57 - ID#401460)

2.5 C

Star Bank's computers couldn't give a current balance this afternoon.

Fith Third Bank, of Cinci, computers are not on line now; if one deposits $50K, one can't write a check on it for at least 24 hours, no one knows the money is in the Bank, no one!

Just think what will happen when their computers shut down next year for the Y2K problem, talk about playing the float.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:01 - ID#31868)
mapleman, Namaste' gulp and a puff to vote comes in as follows: 3 1/2
and reasoning is that I think it will be somewhere between 3 and 4 and that problems will surface during B that will make people planet wide ( with the exception of folks Y2K will mean nothing to anyway ) acutely aware of system failures as it will affect their lala land daily activities...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:02 - ID#30345)
2.2360679774997896964091736687313 and c

George Bernard Shaw:
"you have to choose ( as a
voter ) between trusting to the natural stability of
gold and the natural stability and intelligence of
the members of government. And with due respect
to these gentleman, I advise you, as long as the
capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:02 - ID#286224)


Who Cares?
(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:03 - ID#242214)
"No news is no Bad news. What we don't know won't hurt us." "The only thing we have to fear is fear

My personal favorite is Bill Clinton meeting with Boris Yeltsin
and declaring -

"Peace in our time"

well, except with Bill, it was -

"A Piece on your dime"

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:17 - ID#240248)
RE: mapleman (Y2K SURVEY)
I have personally sold over 150 million in phones, networks, computers, software and computer services in the past 10 years. I own a computer/telephony software company.

I vote 3.5 and B.

We will recover with remarkable swiftness and I don't associate the short term economic downturn with long term unemployment.

The State of New York begins its fiscal year in April and it will be difficult to hide the problems they encounter from the rest of the country, hence my awareness vote.

A larger and more unpredictable part of this problem will be in how people behave.

The greatest benefit we will all enjoy is the destruction of central government. You can make some serious money in the market with this problem if you bet correctly. Good luck.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:17 - ID#254239)
mapleman.. add to your survey (occupation background/area of expertise )
for ex. ( 3.5 / c / electrical/distribution )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:18 - ID#238422)
Thanks, brother, for the link, but I could not excess it...

I know this AR-50 thing a little bit, it shoots .50 AE
handgun cartridge, not .50 BMG, which is a really powerful
caliber...50 AE is the second or third most
powerful handgun cartridge...I shot Desert Eagle Pistol in
this caliber...impressive...also price of 1 shot - $2 or
so...Awfully noisy gun....this AR-50, and very expensive
to shoot. In general, not a practical weapon...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:20 - ID#434226)
3.5 C

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:24 - ID#30345)
@ oris
I love mine.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:24 - ID#350145)
silver mining and consumption
SOMEONE CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG, but i do not think NEWLY MINED silver has kept up with consumption for almost 50 years, and will probably not keep up with consumption in the future except at much higher prices. beginning in the 2nd world war, the world started working down inventories of silver in the billions of ounces. those are pretty much gone and a lot of other silver pulled out of storage during the run up to $50 in 1980. the future looks silvery bright to me.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:25 - ID#31868)
oris, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I tried and did get through to the link...huh...
by the way this rifle does shoot a .50 BMG and yes it is loud, but then am I...oh well...nothing is perfect eh...crunch of the pickle to ya...


LENGTH: 59 inches

WEIGHT: 29 pounds

FINISH: Magnesium Phosphated steel, hard anodized aluminum.

BARREL: 31 inch long, tapered, 8 groove, right hand twist, one turn in 12 inches, threaded for recoil check.

RECOIL CHECK: Cylindrical, multi-flute.

RECEIVER FORM: Modified octagonal form, drilled and slotted for scope rail

SCOPE RAIL: Picatinny rail, with boss to engage cross slot on receiver top.

BOLT: Triple front locking lug

EXTRACTOR: Sako type

EJECTOR: Spring loaded plunger, automatic ejection


STOCK: 3 section: extruded fore end, machined grip frame with M-16 type grip, forged and machined removable buttstock in long and short lengths.

BUTT: Machined forging


(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:25 - ID#252391)
Reify and Disney

This gold chart coupled with the Plat chart posted earlier don't look very good. Its surprising the miners held up as they did. Like most I suspect the feeling is that while the metals could temporarily go lower the downside will be limited - $290 gold - $4.90 silver and who knows in PT maybe $310. That unfortunately is a dangerous mind set as I have often been reminded. Hope the mining company stock buyers are the better informed and are performing their role as leader.

A good weekend to all

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:31 - ID#30345)
@t1 and oris
Got weapons? I meant that I've got a desert eagle that I like to use. It is practical.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:31 - ID#210114)
Guns and Rifle Discussion
Why am I not surprised??

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:33 - ID#433143)
4 -n- B.5

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:36 - ID#238422)
I really don't know what to tell you, I mean to tell you
special stuff... I know some of the
Russians are idiots, even scientists, and you should not
be surprised to run into this category... from time to time.
I agree with you that Russia is potentially the most
dangerous opponent of the U.S.- thousands of nukes can
not be all stopped if trouble happens, and they still have'em.
There is still no defence from massive nuclear attack.
The good thing is that Russians also know that they can not
stop U.S. nukes if US goes ballistic. So, let's hope that
both sides will follow rules of engagement. In regard to
the mood of the population - if long-tongue idiots from
"population" do not control nuclear button - you should
not worry...At this time they do not control it...If you
meet somebody from Russia who might bother you - tell this
somebody to shut the f...k up or you gonna call Oris who is
gonna come over and kick the hell out of this somebody...
somebody will quietly take off. Take care.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:39 - ID#35757)
4 C - I take it you have never worked on a large programming problem.

Say Y2k rolls around and some systems crash. Bearing in mind that these systems are responsible for cutting checks and moving money around from one person's account into another, do you

1 ) Have your programmers tinker with it for a few hours and put in on line after they have assured you it is fixed, or

2 ) ????????

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:39 - ID#238422)
Hey, thanks! I did not know about this one....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:43 - ID#238422)
And how many times did you shoot it? Honestly...15...25?
You got to shoot it 1000 times to say it's practical...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:44 - ID#348127)
I know where the "experts " stand and I know where the media is taking its orders, but I wanted to get a bottom line answer from those of you who frequent this site. I consider this forum to contain a well grounded group that will search out answers on their own and not rely on the media to spoon feed them.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:45 - ID#333123)
Boardreader: your 19.24 statement that the British are fascists. Don't be stupid.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:48 - ID#30345)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:54 - ID#333123)
2.5 and C

(Fri Oct 30 1998 20:54 - ID#348127)

You are right, no programing, debugging, networking or computer related problem solving skills what so ever. Just a dumb old oil patch worker down here in southeast texas.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:03 - ID#30345)
@ oris
I'm no militant, I just happen to like this particulargun. Mom, apple pie, freedom ( and the responsibility that goes with it ) , I target shoot with that gun. Just hunt with the others. My real passion is fishing though.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:04 - ID#190411)
@Max Mosely
I see that you are back, now that K1 is working well.
Are you a chart reader? Have you been following the Gold/ECU/SDR line that Silverbaron and jims have been posting about in the past few days?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:06 - ID#30345)
@ oris
Off to a day of the dead party .... I guess a gulp and a puff to ya ... is the mantra..... from the j that is long

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:07 - ID#317193)
But I'm hedging the bet...g, g, g, g, etc.

Brother oris has been of great assistance with one of the g's...take a guess which one.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:07 - ID#242232)
2 & D. IMHO, a large number of the population work in jobs without
access to the net or media during their working hours. Unlike the net-
heads heres. When their day is over, they don't go home & turn on
Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, etc. They will know there is a problem only
when ( if ) it happens.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:12 - ID#34191)
y2k ...and the answer is......4 B. Recession has already hit the commodities,
so Depression is still coming. Been part of an 11 state blackout, so I am sure the power grid will fail. My power co, Idaho Power says it can't separate from the grid.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:12 - ID#28882)
@ Tantalus Rex et al - John Embry on TV Tomorrow(!)

Investors Online at 1:00, EST. ( Embry is the manager of the Royal Bank Precious Metal Fund. ) He is in full swing with his "conspiracy theories" ( ha! ) and has, how do we say this politely?, he has been encouraged to "fart in the boardroom", with a tip of the hat to all Kitcoites; that is, he has been encouraged to come right out and say: The Price of Gold is Rigged. We'll see what happens, won't we?

cheers all,


(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:15 - ID#28994)
I just love it
y2k is one thing where the results will be known in a short time......
Many think the computer now rules the world. It's developers the human being, according to the poll....are just plain stupid.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:20 - ID#290456)

Did you see my response to your question the other night about the ending diagonal chart pattern? I think my post to you was about 5:15 am yesterday.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:22 - ID#45173)
Don't forget China
They'll keep their promise. They won't devalue. China's answer when foreign investors scream bloody murder after the Chinese close the doors and lock all the capital inside:

"We haven't been around as a civilization for for 7000 years 'cause we're stupid. Ha ha-ha ha ha-ha ha ha-ha-ha ha ha-ha ha ha-ha-ha ha ha-ha ha!"

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:22 - ID#348127)
Hey Cowgirl

Wasnt it your state that caused the 11 state blacckout. I thought the story was that a tree limb fell across a line in Idaho causing that blackout. I still wonder about that being that it was reported HAARP was being tested that same day.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:23 - ID#333123)
Hi ERLE: I dropped in a few times since the system upgrade - yes, much faster and more reliable. Many thanks to Bart and Kitco. Re your questions: no, I'm not just a skeptic but a downright cynic on any and all formal technical analysis systems. The discussion thread you mention - sorry but I havn't been around and have missed it.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:26 - ID#287279)
Man of Maples
4.5, C

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:33 - ID#225236)
Y2K Survey 4C Programmer
The government and management of big US companies are big, fat idiots. They do not see a problem until they are up to their ears in shit. Ever seen Dilbert cartoons? They would be funny if they wern't true.

My favorite is the following:
1. In the future the world will be divided into technology haves and have-nots
2. Geek in a astronaut suit with all sorts of techno junk
3. A bunch of stupid-looking Neanderthals sitting at a big table. One of them says: "Ooog make mission statement!"

I have made a lot of money programming fixing problems no other soul would touch. Long time ago, I tried to be pro-active and actually educate the pointy-haired bosses about issues they were making decisions on. Guess how that ended. Now I thrive on chaos. I am the Dogbert guy. Very entertaining!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:34 - ID#348127)
Have you done your homework on Y2K or not. You are quite the optomist.I really hope you come back in 14 months and say I told you so.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:37 - ID#35757)
Working with computers gives you a different perspective, than say a District Attorney. The DA has great certainty of his ability to piece together an event he has not witnessed by looking at the evidence. A programmer, on the otherhand is constantly humilated by the inability of his mind to anticipate the permutations of the simple instructions under his nose. It is ( almost ) not too strong to say that ANY change in a program, no matter how trivial it seems, requires full testing of the entire program. This is particularly true where legacy code is involved, and doubly true when the person who is working on the program is not the author.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:38 - ID#290456)
MM, ERLE - here's what we've been discussing

Some technical observations with respect to
the price of gold and silver, in terms of
currencies in the Euro block ( ECU, DM, SF,
FF etc. ) :
1 ) When viewed from the perspective of the
Euro currencies, gold and silver have trended down
in a declining triangle or wedge formation, of
unusually high precision on the boundaries. The
precision would lead one to think of manipulation.

2 ) Such pricing patterns are usually
terminal; that is to say the down-trend is
exhausted. In this case, the price will stop
moving down and go up, or at least sideways.
( Up is more likely )
3 ) There is less than one month left in the
triangular trend, before it would meet the
apex of the triangle. The price usually
exits the pattern BEFORE it meets the apex.
4 ) When the trend changes, a large number of
people in the Euro countries will jump on
board. Those short these markets will
presumably cover and go long, on balance.

5 ) Gold and silver will be going up in almost all
world currencies. The bull will be back.

See the following URL for charts of the
metals in almost any currency:

Click on Plot data ( single series )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:41 - ID#266105)

Max_Moseley ( ) ID#333123:
your questions: no, I'm not just a skeptic but a
downright cynic on any and all formal technical
analysis systems.

A man after my own chart. : )

They say the human propensity to see patterns where there
are none is related to the way we store information, in patterns.
Particularly the human face, perhaps from imprinting in infancy...
faces on Mars, in the moon, in clouds, in rock features.

One can peer fixedly at a regularly spaced pattern on floor
tiles, at the 'stitions', and begin to see nonexistent patterns
therein, or 'superstitions'....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:43 - ID#225236)
On anther note -- Monkey emmancipation
The pointy-haired bosses must be getting a clue. They began demanding equal rights to those of humans!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:44 - ID#290456)

See the Elliott description of ending diagonal and
also figure 9 in this link:

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:45 - ID#190411)
@ Max Mosely and Silverbaron,
I know nothing about TA, and I cannot see what compelling case can be made for it. In other words, I am skeptical, also.
But, Silverbaron has made a series of rather good calls in the past few months concerning goldstocks. I assume that some may be related to his conservative reading of the charts.
He called attention to the same chart that I had used, two or so, weeks ago to try to figure out what was happening to POG in USD.
When he mentioned nick@C's plastic ruler test, I thought I'd try it to get an idea of what the chartist chatter was about.
The fit was a textbook case of a "wedge", and it seems to be following it, including the dead activity of gold in the past two days. Silver is very similar.
Silverbaron, I did check the site, and will go back to learn the mystic terms. The examples that were shown, had an upside break in both cases.
Is this typical, or can it break either way?
Anyway. this is a textbook-perfect wedge, for a protracted period. If gold diddles after the magic apex, then I will have a lowered confidence in this wave stuff. If gold breaks down to 135 or whatever Prechter predicts, then I will let the waves rule my entire life.
( When Prechter crosses the road, does he weave and wobble? )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:47 - ID#347457)
@mapleman Y2K
OK, back from day of sailing and it was better than Y2K ;- )

Here is my opinion:

I have a lot of problems with your scale. E.g., you go from 2 - glitches to 3 - recession,

You associate glitches with layoffs ( glitches won't trigger it ) , etc.

If I had to use your scale, I vote for 2.5 ( more than glitches, economic downturn -not necessary due only to Y2K, and layoffs )

Second part - C

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:49 - ID#35757)
@Mapleman OOPS
OOPS - I didn't see your your OOPS. I thought you were a proponent for 1. Just another mistake. I make a lot of them. I am a computer programmer....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:50 - ID#190411)
thanks for your attention, I am such a slow typist, that I asked about things that you already answered.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:55 - ID#190411)
I do think that these charts are showing us something.
I'm trying to make a connection between the charts and SDR'er 's information.
I am a bit of a dullard lately.
Catch you later.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:56 - ID#290456)

I am as mystified by this stuff as you or anyone
else is.....nothing works like it should ( with
respect to precious metals ) so I have no
outlandish hope that this will, either.

All I'm really pointing out is that it LOOKS like
a textbook case of an ending diagonal pattern.
We'll have to see if it pans out.

Looking at these charts, and knowing some of what
SDRer and others have said about gold and its
relationship to the birth of the EURO currency, I
can't help but think that there is a linkage here,
and that for some reason the metals are being
steered into a narrow pricing zone. Can't prove
any of it - just my thoughts.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:56 - ID#288231)

the crude one...

time for more calls....immb....dec'99 23@180.00....mmm.mmm.good..
for me.....this chart has a lot to screams to me.........
'they say i am everywhere....that there is no end in sight to
the over-supply......that it is going to $10bbl......when, i ask?

those who knowse....theyse beese buying mese.......
war and such...the hard liners will not let the peace accord evidenced recently...arafat colludes with the pa....
netanyahu...---who looked into his eyes as he and arafat shook hands
in front of the world? he knows the arabs will break the accord..
israel knows from history what to expect.....

ALL the tired-of-being-under-the-heel-for-lunch-bunch KNOW they
have a window of opportunity to pursue their agendas with the
highest probability of success in 40 years....

the strike will come as saddam asked of all after getting the sh!t
bombed out of him....

'who will be the one to fire the 40'th missle?' as a missle attack....

what happened when the 39'th----a binary look-alike was launched
into israel? bush promptly declared
an allied victory.....this missle was tipped with two
individual cannisters...a clear indicator of what saddam was
preparing to do/or could do.....iraq will fire the 40'th...................with binary korea erupts...
after china invades taiwan...during the serb
our stocks finish crashing....during the bio/y2k crash epidemic..... get gold...generators...grub....and.....


(Fri Oct 30 1998 21:57 - ID#401460)

HOUSTON ( AP ) - The number of oil and gas rigs operating nationwide fell by eight to 708 this week, Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday.

There were 1,017 rigs operating in the United States during the same week last year.

Of the rigs running this week, 515 were exploring for natural gas and 193 for oil.

Houston-based Baker Hughes has kept track of the count since 1940. The tally peaked at 4,500 in December of 1981 during the oil boom. It dropped to a record low of 596 in the summer of 1993, exceeding the previous low of 663 in 1986.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:02 - ID#290456)
~ poof ~

Have a good evening, all.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:03 - ID#242232)
LOL, a lot of people said 2.5, I said 2. 1/2 point makes that much
difference to you that I get singled out? Just like the Moonwalk &
Clinton crap, I really could care less. I have a great life, things
are good. If the sh*t hits the fan, I'll deal with it. Unlike a lot
of people here, I believe most people are basically good. If, as so
many of you believe, that we are headed for doomsday where people will
be running around killing each other for "guns, gold, grub, etc". Then
I will personally put the family & then myself down before I would let
a bunch of lunatics hurt them. And since I seem to be in the minority,
I may as well piss a few more of you off *grin*. There seems to be some
here who will be experiencing orgasms when & if Y2K does the damage they
seem to hope for. SEEK HELP

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:04 - ID#412172)
Good to see you here on kitco. Info overload on Viagra here sometimes, but caveat emptor, especially when it is free ( VBG ) . Just stopped in for a quick look myself tonight, no time to chat, see you here again soon, I hope.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:09 - ID#432221)

Oak and Mapleman seem to be gettin a WOODY TOGETHER.
OAK, Y2K will change it.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:09 - ID#263456)
I have been working in the computer field since 1962

36 years..programmer all the way up to kitco-aholic...4.5 B...

So Sorry...folks...don't want to see it happen...but I programmed a lot of that lousy all the g's???

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:15 - ID#28994)
Hey,, the markets are closed
Hey, the markets are closed, it is the end of October! The traditional month for the big downslide on the Dow. A few months back many of these posters were predicting a major crash in the stock market. The Dow closed today at 8592.10 + 1.14%.
It was to be the end of paper currencies. There was to be a blood-bath in the streets. We are now to be in a major depression. Hey! What happened? Are your guns all loaded, pointing out the windows, waiting for the big onslaught? Or has your thinking just moved on to Y2K?

P.S. Gold closed today at 292.20 - down $1.30. But of course that is in Fiat currency.
No gold...................will buy from KITCO come year 2000.

John Disney
(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:17 - ID#24135)
Apes for President ..
I agree completely on the rights for great apes issue.
I also believe that the apes should have the right to
vote ..
Problem is .. they're almost certain to vote for

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:19 - ID#412172)
OAK 22:03, Silverbaron 21:56
I have noted it here before, a year ago or so: "The Clash Of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order" by Samuel P Huntington.
Not a light read and not all the answers but definitely thought provoking AND in the right direction. Gives new meaning to the Eye of the Storm. Would love to hear others favorite reads along similar topic and quality.
Y2K will be but a symptom and avenue to the essence put forth in this tome. Wish I had it all figured out but I don't, help certainly welcome. Got to sign off, I have got a full weekend, but I will check on any TEOTWOAWKI, The End of The World Order as We Know It, replies.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:25 - ID#35757)
My brother accuses me of that all the time. It just seems that this ( Y2K ) is the only hope of driving a stake through the monster's heart. I don't want to live in a world where my every commercial act is scrutinized, where permission must be obtained to open a business, to buy a firearm, to have a pet.. the list grows daily. "But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government". If Y2Kaos will kill this beast, BRING IT ON.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:25 - ID#401460)
skinny (Hey,, what is your problem?)

Why are you trying to be so confrontational. Did you have a bad day at the office or what?

Chill Out! It's Friday and you are still alive,"be glad".


(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:33 - ID#347457)
Oh well, here we go again ;-)
Guys, this forum is acting funny despite the fact that so many smart people are participating.

Mapleman conducted survey ( I guess that's what it was ) . People expressed their opinion and right after that, we try to "beat" them up for it. That's not the way you conduct "opinion survey".

I guess I am the next target. No problem - I am old enough to take it. ;- )

OK folks, just like many other contributors, I am in DP profession for 30 years. I contributed to the problem ( programmed a lot of systems which had Y2K bugs in it ) , now I am working on fixing it. Not just one client/organization, but a bunch of them. I think I have pretty good picture where we are at fixing the problem. In addition, I am not just a pure computer geek - my master degree is in economics, it was my postgraduate ed. which steered me to a computer field. The only reason I am putting up my "resume" is to say that despite reasonable knowledge about the problem I DON'T KNOW what will happen. Some of you know exactly what will happen ( be it nothing or be it disaster ) . I DON'T. We never dealt with this issue before and all of us are guessing, so I stick with my guess - 2.5 and C ;- )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:38 - ID#35757)
You are right, we shouldn't be beating up on anyone. Perhaps if we considered this a survey/discussion. I appreciate your input as someone who is working on the problem. I am not, and can only extrapolate from my experience in writing and maintaing complex computer programs.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:40 - ID#263456) problem

The reason my "guess" ( as you correctly put it ) is because ...NO ONE IS WORKING ON Y2K in my circles....Sure you are working with folks who are trying to remediate ... but I see bunches of folks doing nothing...NOTHING...NOTHING.....that's why I have rated it as 4.5.....

If more folks like you were attemmpting to fix the problems... I would feel better..

Resume: MS in CS, PhD in if that makes a damn...I'll be eating out of my garden like everybody else...

I also make an effort to read the real "experts"...congressional testimony ... etc.

It seems that these experts agree that if the mission critical systems are not fixed ... and they are not on track to be fixed ... it will be chaos 4.5


(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:42 - ID#28994)
High Rise
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information.
Skinny........whoops...........Winston Churchill.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:43 - ID#343259)

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:46 - ID#401460)

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - Sales of
new homes dropped for a third straight month in September, the Commerce Department said on Friday, falling to the lowest level this year despite favorable mortgage rates.

Total sales fell 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 822,000 -- the
slowest sales pace since 805,000 in December last year -- after declines of 4.9 percent in August and 5 percent in July.

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasuries
winced Friday as strong domestic economic data gnawed at hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November and an international plan to rescue failing economies threatened to derail the safe-haven gravy train.

The 30-year benchmark bond's price had fallen more than a full point by late Friday afternoon, pushing its yield to 5.15 percent from 5.10 percent at the close of futures trading on Thursday.

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - The Federal
Reserve will steadily cut U.S. interest rates through 1999 to ease borrowing costs for businesses trying to solve their millennium bug problems, an investment strategist said Friday.

Please respond to each of the above with factual information to the contrary; rather than just complaining about Kitco posters.


(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:46 - ID#343259)
lets get less analog and get more digital
Oak, it is not as before ( a little ANOTHER-ism ) :
"shit hits the fan"

what it is, especially considering Y2K issues, it is:

shit/fan interface

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:50 - ID#263456) more...

In the Awareness/assessment/remediation/contingincy cycle....99% of the folks I talk to have not even gotten into the awareness cycle ... what chance do they have to be "ready?"

When I talk to my old buddies from the 60's .. and ask them about Y2K...the universal answer is..."It's going to be a mess."

That's it for me...on this subject...go gold.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:51 - ID#219363)
I've also got a software engineering background and have written code on, well, just about anything that'll run it, from embedded 80186 and manual Z80 machine code up to oop on Sun's, GUI on IRIX, etc. I dunno if that makes me an expert, but some people think so, and I've been in charge of pretty many development efforts over the years. The answer to y2k question is, I don't know, and I don't think anyone else does either. It's like if we all of a sudden discovered a new kind of plague that existed in people's bodies, but that wouldn't hurt you until the year 2000, if it hurt you at all, but nobody knows. It's spread through communication with other people, sometimes, and there really isn't a good test to know if you have it. Nobody seems to have died from it, but a lot of people are throwing money at trying to cure it, but then some people aren't trying at all, and they could end up spreading it. And maybe an air traffic controller is going to get it, and that'll cause some airplanes to crash, or maybe it'll end up just being a cold when it finally materializes and it won't do anything at all. There's definitely something there in a lot of people's bodies, and it isn't something that's going to be good, but nobody knows how dangerous it really is. A lot of people claim to have cured themselves, but there isn't a standard cure, it's sort of different for each person depending on what race they are, and what lifestyle they lead. Some people claim it's going to kill everybody, and that scares most people, and so they make noises and the government gets involved, etc, etc. NOBODY KNOWS.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:57 - ID#35757)
When you think of the complexity of it, all these machines talking to each other, billions of transactions a day, it is a wonder it works at all. Maybe it's like the cayote when he runs right off the mountain and continues in thin air, till he looks down....

(Fri Oct 30 1998 22:59 - ID#347457)
@BillD (Bill .. no problem ;-))
Bill, I have no problem with you expressing your opinion. All of us should be able to do it without been ridiculed.
I hear you what you say about lot of entities doing nothing about it. Hopefully many of these "doing nothing" will not be one that will bring society to screeching halt. Again, you may ( and rightfully so ) argue with that. I am very close to all testimonies on the Hill, and, as everything else going-on on the Hill, some of it is good, some of it not so good ( or "expertly" ) . Well, I am old enough to earn the right to have a cynical view on a lot of things ;- )

BTW, our educational background is similar, though the sequence is reversed. Anyway, in my case, it's more those 30 years of "real world experience" what I am basing my opinions on ;- )

Cheers - Miro

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:01 - ID#242232)
Envy & Miro
If yall don't mind, I'd like to change my answer from a 2 to whatever
equals what yall just said. ( GRIN ) But being the eternal optimist, I
lean toward the side with the lesser effects.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:01 - ID#343259)
a wee bit'o unsolicited advice follows...
Corner Bay,, Toronto symbol BAY is drilling a Mexican silver
target, the first round of drilling indicates a potential ore
deposit containing 20 to 40 million ounces of silver, grade
about 3.5 opt. Drilling continues to progress testing down-dip
extension and along strike, news in 30 days or so.
Bottom line is if the results show continuity then the shares
are an easy double, err they already have doubled this week.
6.7 million shares, legit management, $700k cash ( hey they are
juniors! ) ; anyway they are about $.50cdn and I see them over
a buck by mid-December, pending decent results.

web site has all but plan and x-section which are soon to be up:

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:05 - ID#247428)
Skinny!! Hey the markets are closed
LOL! dude :- ) . You hit the nail on the head. We are all in this to see a profit in metals but some of us get carried away. However even with all the doom and gloom you must admit that in history times have gotten as bad as some claim here. ( Grin ) shotgun pointing out the window waiting ( LOL!!! )

I'm hoping that the dow slides but it's not even behaving like it should. I'm getting sick every time I see a rise in the Dow. How long can this go on?. Stockes going as high as Microsofts at 68 P/E. Even without a bad world the stocks need a correction but too no avail. This market does not make sense any more. Something has to give way sometime but I wonder will that be when we all have lost our shirts in this thing?..Hope not

Good luck in your investments.

Kind Regards

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:07 - ID#242232)
mole mentioned Corner Bay a couple of days before it doubled. My broker
( Datek ) won't deal with bulletin board stocks. Any of the online brokers
handle them? Anyone know?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:07 - ID#343259)
let me just add....
to be honest I see BAY going to over $2CDN rather than the $1
I posted before, I wanted to downplay it but the premature
ejaculator in me forced this follow-up

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:08 - ID#31868)
all of life is an unknown really...when you get right down to it...a very large inter-
active part of life which we take for granted is controlled by computers...the thought/s which stipulate that this large part of what many consider to be a known quantity might fail would lend itself to preparing for the possibilities which may arise...this in itself is comical in an ironic sense as one tries to prepare for the known unknown so to speak...

Fear and paranoia are easy to create and prey on...intimidation can be a most oppressive circumstance...

If nothing else...hopefully...whatever happens...people that are not used to taking responsibility for themselves will come to terms with the fact that life is not a free is not perfect...and challenges make each and everyone of us better as we face them in our own individual manners...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:08 - ID#350145)
i sent you some info, but my server has been messed up all week. did you get it OK?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:09 - ID#242232)
or is it even listed on the BB's in the US?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:11 - ID#242232)
yep, thanks. I've got a couple of amateur questions for you on some
things you mentioned. Your e-mail working now?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:12 - ID#219363)
Yeah, I don't think it's going to amount to much either. If I had to lay bets on what would most hurt the infrastructure, y2k would be on the list, but I'd give even money on a new AI virus or a more advanced Internet worm. The infrastructure has gotten more secure in some ways with firewalls and what-not, but as features are added to the OS's, and Microsoft clunks in their hacked up UNIX networking services, the security of the whole ball of wax is lacking in serious and fundamental ways. I just hope nobody makes a serious effort at dumping the whole thing, that's more dangerous than y2k in my eyes.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:12 - ID#343259)
I bought thru cSchwab which has an online outlet, at least
thats what they call it, I never use it for Canadian trades,
go thru the 800 canadian desk number.
Going on a site like this and recommending a stock is a bit
uncomfortable, you never really know what may unfold and you
don't want anyone to act on your info and get burned... but
this site is chalk full of bits like BAY, let the buyer beware!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:12 - ID#347457)
Envy, or thinking is very much alike ;- )

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:13 - ID#350145)
comex silver stocks
i think there is a chance that when comex silver stocks dropped below 70,000,000 we may get the start of some speculation. something psychological about 69,999,999. i finished my buying in various silver stocks today. been wrong before.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:13 - ID#347457)
Oh well :- ( , it was suppose to be "our thinking"

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:15 - ID#16255)
Envy. Y2K
I tend to agree with your last post. The outcome of this is for now,
totally unpredictable. I do not hear the word "compliant" mentioned
to much though. I have a funny feeling that the events that lead up
to the 1-1-2000 will be a sight to behold. The press is just starting
to talk about it in the newspaper. It is almost daily now.

If the masses freak sometime next year, you can kiss this mighty bull
market goodbye. In fact I think you should kiss it goodbye now to avoid
the rush.

My only programming experience is with the 8751. Mostly hobby stuff.
I do see now that Dallas semiconductor has a replacement for the 1286
and 1287 RTC's. I think its called ds1267. Just saw the data sheet on it the other day and "Y2K compliant" is in BOLD print on the first page.
I dont think they can make them fast enough!

Best Regards, O.L.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:18 - ID#343259)
.people that are not used to taking
responsibility for themselves will come to terms with the fact that life is not a free

I hope you are right, but I see them just doing more of the same,
or worse. Whne we are beyond the shit/fan interface the slackers
will only whine more, at least in the 30's you had people of fiber,
mostly, and capable of sustaining themselves without Uncle Sugar.
Too many of us are 'whats in it for me'.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:19 - ID#16255)
I would bet there have been times when you were right also!!

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:28 - ID#31868)
CoolJing, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...while I am sure there will be whiners as
you point out...I also believe that many will see the hollow and empty promise that is the government...many will find resolve...should things really get hectic and the electrical grid goes down for any length of time or in segmented lengths of time...communities will be forced to deal with the situation on a local level and see Federal anything as the joke it by community they will have to deal with themselves and their neighbors...

A bunch of cohesive states acting individually but with common resolve...who woulda thunk it...

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:29 - ID#350145)
canadian silver stocks - just a list - not a recommendation!
for those who want a silver proxy here is a list of the silver stocks which i own and which responded in the last move up, last year. some of these are surely dogs, but i don't know whcih ones, so you takes your chances and do your homework. i repeat these are not recommendations. i just remember how long it took me to figure this stuff out. coeur-cde-about $6.00 US/ hecla-hl-approx $4.5 us/ sunshine-ssc-approx .$.75us/united keno-t.ukh .23 canadian/san andreas t.sao .18 canadian/real del monte t.rmm .15 can/ royal silver rsmi .06us/huldra -v.hda .10 or so canadian hasn't traded since august - but tore up when silver moved. atna t.atn is my favoritw undervalued stock polymetallic .60 can- so few silver stocks-like platinum stocks so few,sometimes hard to find. good luck to us all.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:33 - ID#25490)
Put my money on Red 2
2 C


(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:36 - ID#219363)
Just a quick follow-up to emphasis that I don't know. I DO KNOW that a lot of software engineers are going to be working at midnight on 01 Jan 2000, and that's not good. In fact, that's a disaster in itself, no software engineers at the New Year's Eve party, pffff. What's a party without techies, life will be dull for the rest of you, try not to jump out of a window or anything while we're gone from your lives. It is indeed a dull place, a dull life, a life barely worth living, when there aren't software guys around. If y2k ends up not causing problems on 01 Jan 2000, I'm betting the world will effectively end the following week, a forced holiday as all the software engineers around the world go home to get a weeks vacation. Nobody will be around to fix the world's stupid user problems, I'd be surprised if anybody will be able to figure out how to print. *grin*.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:42 - ID#35757)
You are right Envy, that would be a disaster. Like having the mechanic working on the jet engine while the plane is in the air.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:45 - ID#242232)
AB, C D puppies?
O, M N O puppies!
O S M R!

Time for bed, can you tell?

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:47 - ID#343259)
whatever it takes... maybe it will be for the best. While I
don't know enough of the y2k issues to say how devastating
it could be, I would say that we, as a nation, society,
need something to get us whipped into shape both spiritually,
physically, emotionally and financially. Kinda a boot camp
for better living. America is by far the best place to live
on earth, has the best political experiment, ongoing, despite
whore clinton et al.

(Fri Oct 30 1998 23:52 - ID#35757)
@Envy Oak
Would you agree?

1 ) Any legacy software is a kludge?
2 ) Y2K modifications on such software is a kludge of a kludge?
3 ) This thing will fly?