Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:02 - ID#284255)
Glitch Snows Weather Satellite

Seems the infallable manual backup just wouldn't work.

Generators and Juice. - great page of info.


286's and RTC's & time dilation - DUH ^o-o^

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:03 - ID#350145)
one is and one isn't. i think the one i gave you is OK. on that other tip you gave me - just been very busy and some family stuff-sick mom. thanks though-we'll get to it eventually.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:04 - ID#25490)
It's 18:00 on 31/10/98 here, we're going to a black tie ball "The Heart Foundation."

This small pamphlet was slipped throught he letter-box this morning, I thought it was an important piece of cultural paper. Managing the cultural change from no "Trick or Treat" to Halloween NZ style:

"It's Halloween and the ( Street name ) kids will be on the prowl. It's a good chance for the kids to get to know the adults in the street, and the adults to get to know who to complain to when the kids get out of control. ( That's a joke.. they're all perfect. )

If you would like them to visit you, decorate your letter box, put a balloon out, etc.

Because it's Saturday night and no school tomorrow we'll start later than usual, and the group will be gathering outside No 30 at 7:00pm.

Any ( Street name ) kids are welcome ( and parents too ) . Just turn up in your spookiest gear. See you then!"

Kinda civilised?

Got Treat?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:05 - ID#390337)
y2k - DC Beltway Bandit Dilbert, then RDMBS dogbert for corps.
I have seen it all from the inside and it smells worse than the Anacostia in August. 4 & C. No project has ever been completed successfully on-time. Inoccuous errors cause weeks of frustration to remediate when it affects a big picture system. Run-time errors caused by front-end GUI's feeding "fixed" back-end programs can cause complete non-linear behavior when feeding 2 digit dates. MS-Access, MS-SQL Server, Sybase, Oracle & Informix all have different default century "resultant" for a yymmdd date. Some will produce 1999-10-01 some will produce 2000-10-01. Yes sir, the "G"'s will rule. They most certainly will rule.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:06 - ID#263244)

My vote 3.75 & c.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:07 - ID#238422)
Sorry, you seems to be serious. Buddy of mine who got
this thingie keeps it mostly for display purposes...thus
it created a certain opinion in my mind. You are not only
j who is long, but you are also j who is strong....if you
can handle such piece....I play mostly with .22 LR...hate
to wear ear protection.

Take care, Oris.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:08 - ID#390337)
see.. already mistakes are creeping into the Kitco bucket.
I meant "1900-10-01" in the preceding post.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:13 - ID#350145)
? anyone
i am not much of a computer whiz. i am having trouble obtaining the days posts. is it something i am doing or is it kitco? thanks. ps actually, i can only get the last 5 minutes or so.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:19 - ID#219363)
It's really hard to answer the questions you posed. The reason for that is that the complexity of your average site ( company, organization, etc ) is so much more complex than what software is running where. I don't think people realize that it all really does change constantly, new equipment is brought in, some phased out, then there's that black box in the closet that nobody remembers plugging in. The whole thing is kind of hacked up and held together with manpower and a little bit of electrical tape. Typical network I've seen is running pretty much every architecture made from the old mac sitting in a proposal writer's office ( he's so attached to it ) , to the PC on the manager's desk, the cray crunching numbers up at the research facility, the connection machine doing cellular automata models, a gillion flavors of UNIX doing print services, DNS, email, etc, and your odd routers, hubs, and gadgets pumping data across serial lines, ATM, FDDI, wireless, etc. It's all rather complex, and I don't care what facility it is, nobody knows everything that's going on, nobody. How do you check a place like that for y2k ? Hell, who knows, nobody even knows what all the junk under the floor does, that guy quit last year, you don't worry about it until it breaks and you have to fix it. Some mechanical engineer is sitting in the office over in building 555 doing CAD stuff on a Pentium, is it y2k compliant ? Who knows. Guy across the way is watching network traffic using some SNMP client software he downloaded for free off the Internet, is that junk y2k compliant ? Yeah, try to get technical support on that one. Some weird box is attached to the back of the IRIS and is hooked up to this engine doing performance testing, is the embedded controller in the box y2k compliant ? Wait, didn't we get that thing for free when we traded in the old transputer ? Who makes that thing, it's got duct tape over the manufacturer's name and information. Secretary is sending a fax to the Orlando office, is the fax machine compliant ? I dunno, I think they replaced the board with a newer one the last time we got it serviced, or was that the one on Sally's desk ? What about that code John hacked together to download market data off the XYX Corp ftp site and automatically filter it into the ABC database, is that stuff okay ? I dunno, I haven't ever looked at the data, somebody see if he's still working for FGH Inc over in San Francisco and see what you can find out. The only thing I can say for sure is that anybody who says they know what's going on, doesn't. NOBODY KNOWS.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:26 - ID#293386)
Just a comment
Tried to talk with my father about Y2K thing today. He wasn't interested in hearing about possible coming problems. He said he was in Gods hands.Sometimes I believe the man who said, " Religion is the opiate of the people", may not have been far off track.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:34 - ID#284255)
My vote
4.5 & C

Not that I am a techie.
Just that I read 16++ hours a day on the subject.
Am on 8 Y2k forums and about 20 mailing lists.
Maybe I suffer a bit from information overload. ^o-o^

And I try to have a global perspective.
Not a USA perspective.


Any UNIX geeks here?

What's the buzz on April '99 ?

What's the whispers???

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:38 - ID#284255)
Sorry but my records only go back a couple of years.

But the oscillator works very similarly to the Swenlin Oscillator.
And that has history going back through both crashes.

Also an explanation of the concept.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:39 - ID#247428)
CoolJing 800 Number?
I was intrested in knowing what this 800 number is about?. Is this to pick up Canadian Stocks and if so can you tell me more about Bay?

Kind Regards

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:41 - ID#284255)
Y2k supplying parts.

Interface Development and Testing

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:44 - ID#258195)
did u get the response i sent u @ 18:06 yesterday in ( belated ) response to your 3 requests about lease and lending rates?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:55 - ID#350145)
thanks Dabchick
no. have been having trouble getting past posts and have missed a lot-been real busy. sure would appreciate if you would do it again-hate to bother you, but that info is completely missing in my knowledge and sort of think i need it. thanks.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 00:58 - ID#266105)
a yen for euros

40% of the world's savings they say.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:08 - ID#190411)
Envy, What, no date?
I got a bit frustrated with searching CBOT tables of puts, so I got a bit of BEARX. They have heavy positions in ^NDX puts. The reason that they have not performed in the late lamented downturn, is that they may have short positions in our favorite short-squeeze vehicles. They also have substantial long goldshares.
Noone that has half of the saavy of the least educated kitcoite would place themselves short of the low float internet stocks.
I looked at ^ndx puts, and they are really pricey. Your single stock puts are the way to go. As I said the other night, I still like Lucent puts, and GE is a Lewinsky goin' down. Loose credit card companies are ripe plums.
It's like being a kid in a candy store.
You just had better stay away from the low float internet stocks.

I haven't the slightest notion about investing, so, guys like Realistic had better not heed any supposed advise here.
When is Bart going to correct the spelling on the copyright? He spells it "No one".

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:09 - ID#45173)
That's a very friendly trick-or-treat you guys have over there in NZ. This is the first time I haven't been away on Oct. 31 in eight years, so I plan to hand out candy to the neighborhood kids and hope their big brothers don't turn my car around sideways in my driveway, adorn my trees with TP, shave my dog, or do any of the stuff I used to do when I was a brat their age on Halloween night.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:23 - ID#258195)
@mole : Definitions of Lease and Lending Rates
I wish you hadn't asked that question which you thrice posed ( at 06:13, at 08:36 and at 12:56 ) . I'm sorry you got no response........ And by the time you have finished reading this response from me you may well wish you hadn't asked the question in the first place!
I've been off-line all day so didn't see your question, but in the absence of a response from a higher authority like Bart Kitner himself, ( who must know more about Bullion Banks and Bullion Dealers than most ) , here is my attempt.
The concept is quite simple. Its ramifications are arcane. Here is the concept ( IMHO, FWIW etc etc Bart please correct me if you see this is wrong anywhere ) .
The $LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate ( of interest on a cash loan of US Dollars ) .
The Lending Rates which appear daily in the FT are calculated by NM Rothschild. I telephoned the FT a couple of weeks ago, to ask exactly how they calculated them, but unfortunately they could not tell me. They suggested I contact NM Rothschild direct, but would'nt give me a name or contact. I spoke to a nice young lady at NMR who promised someone would phone me back but I'm still waiting.
Anyhow, the Lending Rate is the annualised rate of return which a lender of gold gets over and above the amount of gold they lend. For instance, if a Central Bank is asked by a Bullion Bank / Dealer to lend some of their gold for 3 months, the market conditions prevailing yesterday ( Thursday ) determined that the Mean Gold Lending Rate calculated by Rothschild for 3-month gold would be 3.90% That rate is based on the difference between forward rates and spot. ( A proxy for the forward rates can be calculated - see later - from the quoted forward prices on Comex. )
The Lease Rate is $LIBOR minus the Lending Rate. Easy, isn't it !!!
The only trouble is, no-one explains why one is called a Lending Rate and the other a Lease Rate. I suspect it goes back to the days when borrowing gold was first used as a means of financing the digging of it out of the ground. I look at it this way:
If you owned a small mine but didn't have any money to dig it out of the ground, one way of getting the money would be to borrow cash from your friendly Bank Manager at $LIBOR ( if you're lucky ) . But there is a cheaper way. Ask your bank ( Rothschilds? ) to borrow a million ounces from their friendly Central Bank, and lend it on to you at the MGLR. You immediately sell it back to the Gold Market in exchange for fiat dollars ( called cash ) which you can use to pay men to dig out your own gold. Then when you have dug it out you repay the gold you borrowed, plus ounces in interest at MGLR. In effect you have leased the gold and the money you have saved by
leasing it equals the difference between $LIBOR and MGLR. Hence $LIBOR minus MGLR gets called the Lease Rate. ( Sounds plausible ........but I'm not sure ) .
As far as calculating the Lending Rate is concerned, anyone can do it for themselves ( near enough ) . On Sept 28th I posted the method as follows:
Step 1. Look at the COMEX closing prices for the nearby, ( Oct98 ) , the 3-month ( Dec98 ) , and the 6-month ( between Feb99 and Apr99 ) contracts. The closing prices for each one were Oct98 = $295.3 ....Dec98 = $298... Mar98 = $300.2 approx.
Step 2. To get, for example, the 3-month Gold lending Rate [do not confuse with LEASE rate], subtract spot gold $295 ( say ) from the 3-month ( Dec98 ) price of $298 which give $3.
Step 3. Multiply this by 4 to annualise it = $12
Step 4. Multiply this by 100 and divide by $295 ( spot ) to get a figure of 4.07% . This is the 3-month gold LENDING rate.
Step 5. Subtract this from 3-month $LIBOR ( Say currently 5.27% )
Step 6. The resultant is an approximation for the 3-month Gold LEASE rate which worked out at 1.2% for the close in London on Monday 28th Sept 1998.
Although I am happy to put them up each day ( perhaps Bart will resume doing so some time - I gather he used to before I came on site ) I really don't know why people get so excited about Lease Rates. Some here seem to think they are a portent of great things to come. But when you think about it, ( and this week in the Silver Market has been an example ) if the spot price goes up, the Lending Rate goes down automatically, and so the Lease Rate must go up. In other words, higher spot prices bring higher lease rates with them as sure as night follows day ( assuming LIBOR unchanged ) .
Furthermore, the whole picture is made very difficult to interpret by the use of many instruments like swaps and options. I gather such instruments are employed to reduce the risk which Bullion Banks have to face when ( as they usually do ) Central Bank will only lend short-term, but the Borrowers ( Miners for Hedging and Fabricators who comprise 80% of all demand for borrowing ) want to borrow for 12 months or more. Incidentally, Central Banks seldom lend to organisations that look risky. They expect the Rothschilds of this world to carry the risk. And to reduce their risk further, I gather Central Banks are more and more employing swaps rather than straightforward lending. By using swaps, they simultaneously sell spot and purchase forward from the Market.
It seems to me the most significant use of the Lease Rate until about a month ago was as a means of watching the action of Speculators who were shorting. But here it was not the absolute Lease Rate that mattered so much as the short ( 1-Month ) lease rates in relation to the 12-month rates. Because it was thought that Speculators engaged in shorting gold would only be doing it on a near-term basis, it should be possible to know when they were at it by watching 1-month Lease Rates. The Commitements of Traders reports from CFTC are much more to the point in this respect, but they only give you a couple of snap-shots once a fortnight ( =2 weeks ) . So I suppose the Lease Rate had some use in between.
As for the ( near ) future, it could be interesting to watch what happens to the Lease Rates if and when $LIBOR falls further. For instance, if the Fed had to lower Dollar LIBOR rates to about 2%, with Gold Lending Rates at their current 3 to 4%, the Lease Rates would go negative. The only way to prevent them going negative would be for Lending Rates to fall in line. And that, in turn could only come about in one of two ways. Either Spot would have to rise, or the forwrd rate fall. But I'm still not sure which is the chicken and which the egg.
Anyway, that's my two-penn'orth. My comments are almost entirely constructed after reading the following references, anyone interested in delving would do well to go to the World Gold Council website and download the following Studies ( pdf files ) :-
Research Study No 5 ( March 1994 ) - "The Gold Borrowing Market - a Decade of Growth "
Research Study No 14 ( Nov 1996 ) - "The Gold Borrowing Market - Recent Developments"
Research Study No 18 ( Apr 1998 ) - "The Utilisation of Borrowed Gold by the Mining Industry "
Research Study No 19 ( June 1998 ) - "Trends in Gold Banking"
I'd be really glad if someone lurking out there ( as well as our learned regulars ) who knew this subject thoroughly would come in and let us all have the benefit of their knowledge.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:27 - ID#45173)
You're a prince to try to explain this. It's late so I've saved it and will study it later until I figure it out. Thanks.

G'Nite all.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:33 - ID#237256)
Trading Techniques: S&P

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:37 - ID#237256)
Platinum anyone???
Keep something in mind, this guy and his Gann / Elliot technique is GOOD!!!

(Sat Oct 31 1998 01:56 - ID#350145)
thanks for all that Dabchick
i feel like i should put you in my will after all of that. had i known, i would not have bothered you. but thanks. i kept it. 20 years i have done this stuff and i knew none of that. i am quite new to this site, but i have learned a lot. anyway, thanks.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 02:07 - ID#340383)
I cannot express it better than did EJ. Thank you very much.
Glad to have you aboard the Kitco Express.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 02:18 - ID#340383)
Hmmm, must be 10-31-00
I see that the Kitco spot prices this evening are 10-23-98. Thought they were up to date ( even if not in time ) earlier on 10-30.

And Kaplan's site keeps posting Wednesday post. I know that yesterday I read a current ( Thursday ) post. Hitting the reload button creates no change. The goblins'll get'cha.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 03:04 - ID#329186)
ChasAbar( Hmmm, Kaplan) I am not having any problemswith Kaplan and have Thurs,Fri
reports if you need them I can e-mail you the link

Go gold

would need your e-mail

(Sat Oct 31 1998 03:32 - ID#258195)
@ mole, EJ, ChasAbar
Thanks, you guys. Its when folks like you show appreciation for one another that we tend to bring out the best in people on a site like this.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 03:49 - ID#340344)
Thanks for the offer but now, at home, the computer brings up both Kitco
and Kaplan correctly. I don't get it. Earlier, when I got only old Kitco spots and Kaplan date, I still got up-to-the-minute Kitco posts.
Does anyone have an idea why this was happening to me?%^ (

Maybe it was my all-powerful wife, telling me to get my rear end home!

Dave in CO
(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:13 - ID#229141)
Sen. Moynihan falls for "over-hyped Y2K crap"

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:20 - ID#284255)
Now I thought I was the biggest bear.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:22 - ID#284255)
Now I thought I was the biggest bear.
The Baltic Banking Group Report>

With yesterday's 299 point drop in the DJIA there are now many experts who are beginning to say that we are in a bear market and should expect a 20% drop from the July 20, 1998 DJIA high of 9,412. That would give us a DJIA target price of 7,529. Do not believe it. We do not think that this bear market will end with only a 20% drop. Expect an 80% drop to 1,882. This will not happen is a day, week or month. The bear market should continue for years. This bear market will need to correct all of the excesses from the 1982 low. It is unlikely that this bear market will end before we see a complete reorganisation of the world monetary system. ( see also: report #7 ) There will be many rallies in this bear market. They should all be used to sell short. ( see also: report #8 ) In spite of yesterday's gold rally, we do not think it is time yet to buy hard asset shares. It is however getting close and we would not argue with investors who started to average in at current prices.

Worth a bookmark???

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:28 - ID#284255)
A few days ago somebody posted a crack code.
A bogus username and password.

Anyone remember?


(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:31 - ID#284255)
The Baltic Banking Group Report
Summary: The gold and silver shares have enjoyed a good rally. It may be that we have passed the low for the gold and silver shares but we expect the shares to test the prior lows when bullion makes a new low or tests the old low. Investors who have followed the trades reported in the premium section are doing substantially better than 100% per year. Below are two letters to the editor and our responses. These letters raise important issues which we think every investor should consider.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:32 - ID#284255)
The Baltic Banking Group Report
The Five Dimensions Of Man
4th and 5th Dimensional Objects

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:36 - ID#284255)
The Five Dimensions Of Man

The Poem

In the beginning
There was no beginning
There always was

In the life of man
There was a beginning
A position

Yes, a point in space
Yes, traveling through space
Became a line

Looking back in space
Length saw infinity
Infinite points

To travel in space
To find infinity
Build dimensions

The line moved in space
And so was born a plane
Now length, now breadth

The plane moved in space
And so was born a mass
Length, breadth and width

The mass moved in space
And so was time begun
Creation starts

Length, breadth, width and time
The fourth dimension - yes
Infinite three

Infinity, yes
The fourth to the third - yes

Infinity, yes
The third to the second

Infinity, yes
The second to the first

And always, there is
From lower to higher
Movement in space

The fourth dimension
The same pattern obtains
Move it through space

Yes infinity
The fifth to the fourth - yes
Infinite fourth

Looking at the fifth
Seeing the fourth and third
Second and first

Looking at the fifth
Repeating the time line

And move it in space
A change of positions

No longer the same
Infinitely varied

Already you've been
In the fifth dimension
All that can be

When we all can see
As below so above
Our consciousness

(Sat Oct 31 1998 04:42 - ID#173196)
Sharefin Crack Code
Think it was cypherpunks/cypherpunks.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 05:12 - ID#284255)
There goes another one

Dear User,
Due to a programing bugg in the program that sends
out the weekly statistics email some accounts have
corrupt satistics. I'm afraid that if you are one
of thous you haveto reset your acount. Login to your
account, click "Configure" and "Reset".

If you can still login to your account, but you can't see
the counter on your page, you might want to login
click "Configure" and change the counter style since
it have most likely been changed to invisible.

We are very sorry for this and are naturaly working on
ways to prevent this from happening in the future.

If you find no error/problem, you do'nt have to do anything.
Just leave it as it is.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 05:22 - ID#284255)
Thanks mate.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 05:34 - ID#284255)
A Christian Y2k perspective

If you have no religious scruples against saving money in the bank, then there can be no reasonable objection to saving ( additionally or instead ) barterable commodities. Gold, silver, food and fuel are better than money in a crisis. Their value will only increase in a situation where everybody wants them and few have them. There are several companies* from which you can buy a year or mores supply of foods packaged in air-tight, pest-proof containers which can either be eaten by your family or else bartered for toilet paper when the market shelves are bare. The great thing about turning your symbolic assets ( money in the bank ) into real goods is that you never have to regret your investmenteven if the crisis never occurs. If there is no crisis in the year 2000, then you will spend ( as usual ) a certain amount of money for groceries that year. What harm is done by taking the same money and pre-buying the groceries for that year in air-tight buckets? If we are talking about rice, wheat, beans, peas, salt, sugar, maybe some powdered milk, etc., these can be eaten in the year 2000, whether by electric light or by candle light. I know that some of these precautions cost more money than some of you have. Our own family doesnt have enough money at this time to do many of the things I am suggesting. But I am hoping to raise your awareness of where the money you would normally spend on luxuries or entertainment might better be spent over the next two years. A years supply of plain, wholesome, packaged food might run you, perhaps $400$700 per person in the family. A basement accumulating these buckets over the next two years probably makes more sense than a family room with a new home theater system. Perhaps a late-model car can be sold for the price of an older car and a years supply of food for a family of six. The most painless way to accumulate a buffer food supply would be to simply buy a few extra cans of food every time you shop for groceries, and put the surplus aside for a rainy day.
--End snip--

(Sat Oct 31 1998 05:43 - ID#43349)
Ad infinitem.....

Can a point exist without a line?

Can a line exist without a surface?

Can a surface exist without a space?

Can a space exist without a time?

Can a time exist without possibilities?

Can possibilities exist without consciousness?

Can consciousness exist without mind?

Can mind exist without God?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 05:43 - ID#252391)
To ALL & Silverbaron / The ECU-Gold Wedge.
I have taken the liberty to repost Silverbaron's discussion of the declining wedge formation occuing in European currencies relative to Gold and Silver . The formation is most pronounced in the Euro ( ECU ) vs. gold chart. The multi point top side of the declining wedge is restricting gold's advance. The intersection of the base of the wedge and the declining top occurs around November 20th at a price in Euros equivalent to $290.

I have been looking at charts for twenty five years and long before they were available electronically or even much available through subscription I drew my own. Never have I seen such a perfectly developed formation with multiple touchs of price upon a downtrend line without a breach of the line. My conclusion is that this has to be orchestrated.

This is worth a look!!!!

Date: Fri Oct 30 1998 21:38
Silverbaron ( MM, ERLE - here's what we've been discussing ) ID#290456:
Copyright  1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Some technical observations with respect to
the price of gold and silver, in terms of
currencies in the Euro block ( ECU, DM, SF,
FF etc. ) :

1 ) When viewed from the perspective of the
Euro currencies, gold and silver have trended down
in a declining triangle or wedge formation, of
unusually high precision on the boundaries. The
precision would lead one to think of manipulation.

2 ) Such pricing patterns are usually
terminal; that is to say the down-trend is
exhausted. In this case, the price will stop
moving down and go up, or at least sideways.
( Up is more likely )

3 ) There is less than one month left in the
triangular trend, before it would meet the
apex of the triangle. The price usually
exits the pattern BEFORE it meets the apex.

4 ) When the trend changes, a large number of
people in the Euro countries will jump on
board. Those short these markets will
presumably cover and go long, on balance.

5 ) Gold and silver will be going up in almost all
world currencies. The bull will be back.

See the following URL for charts of the
metals in almost any currency:

Click on Plot data ( single series )

NOTE: Select gold and ECU

(Sat Oct 31 1998 06:31 - ID#411440)
@ jims: is not that descending wedge even more acute with the
Canadian dollar? This wedge also seems to terminate at about the
same time as the wedge in European currencies. If true, the CAN$
is about to experience better times re gold, and this further
implies that gold is about to rise, which along with other commodities
would drive the Canadian dollar higher.

It would appear that the CAN$ will do the oppostite to EURO currencies.
This is logical, as Europe has little gold production and must import
most industrial commodities, and these graphs seem to be saying that
commodity prices are about to explode. The way I see it anyway.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:01 - ID#348257)
sharefin, gollum
the lines you have been exchanging this morning in this space
make a pleasant point
that all is not merely on the surface
but there is depth to the human mind

Indeed Mind itself. What an angle!

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:01 - ID#252391)
@Rhody - Commodity price Explosion
Gosh, a commodity price explosion - that would come from out of left field. Bull markets usually begin slowly, so while my trading account might benefit from an explosion which implies big and fast that seems it would be as disruptive and deflation and depression.

I'm getting harder to surprise as the years go by - but an explosion would surprise me. Much higher prices yes over the long term once atrend is established but we are having a very difficult time with just getting above 200 day moving averages for more than a day or two and staying there.

What do you read into the recent silver lease rates - enough to hang your hat on yet.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:05 - ID#248180)
EURO$ & China "Lines Drawn in the Sand Now Deeper & Clearer"
SATURDAY OCTOBER 31 1998 Financial Review London
Asia-Pacific 

China to add the euro to its reserves

By James Kynge in Beijing
China plans to add the euro to its $141bn foreign currency reserves when the European currency is launched next year, the governor of the People's Bank of China, Dai Xianglong, told Yves-Thibault de Silguy, the European monetary affairs commissioner, on Friday.

Mr Dai was quoted as saying the euro would be strong and would help bring monetary stability to Europe and the world.

His tone on the euro contrasted with criticisms by top Chinese officials, including Zhu Rongji, the premier, of the role of Japan and the US in managing Asia's financial crisis.

Mr Zhu said in his meetings with European leaders, including Jacques Santer, the European Commission president, and Sir Leon Brittan, trade commissioner, that the US should take a bigger responsibility for the activities of hedge funds, which, Mr Zhu noted, are "based in the US".

China has blamed hedge funds, which officials here regard as secretive and excessively leveraged, for speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar earlier this year. Mr de Silguy said after his discussions with the Chinese that the International Monetary Fund should be responsible for imposing transparency requirements on "all types of investment funds".

Mr Zhu also criticised Japan for failing to take adequate steps to stabilise the yen, which depreciated sharply earlier this year and has recently appreciated with similar speed. "Far from being a motor [for Asian economies], [Japan] has acted as a braking mechanism," Mr Zhu was quoted as saying.

China has long regarded Europe as vital to its vision of a "multipolar" world, through which the influence of the US can be balanced by competing interests elsewhere. Its praise for the euro appeared designed to add weight to its criticism of the US and Japan, officials said.

Mr Santer and other top European officials are in China on a six-day visit, which has included a meeting with President Jiang Zemin.

There was concern in the European camp about China's negotiations on joining the World Trade Organisation.

Sir Leon said that insufficient progress on market opening had been made by China, despite 12 years of negotiations. His talks with Chinese counterparts had yielded no new offers from Beijing.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:22 - ID#252391)
Significant statement by the Chinese about the Euro - should be short term and long term bearish for the dollar and maybe add a few cents to the price of gold.

Thanks for the info.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:31 - ID#411440)
@ jims: I think that much of the recent increase in POS was
absorbed into an increase in lease rates, not spot prices.
I think silver will go down from here until mid November.
This is not a market, it is a manipulation. As long as
there is one oz of silver in stockpiles, and it can be
leased to add to effective supply, then prices cannot rise.

We still have 40 million oz in COMEX warehouses available to
dump on the market. This could disappear very quickly if
the Fed inflates ( and they have begun to do so ) and the public
flight to quality begins but that situation still lies in the

Re lease rates: Bart seems to have abandoned the posting of leases.
This may not matter if Dabchick continues to provide the service.
I am sure that Dabchick's figures are correct, but when I check with
the weekly report of the World Gold Council, their figures are always
lower than Dabchick's. My interpretation of this is that leasing pms
is a manipulation, and that the lease rates are also manipulated.

I follow one month leases as an indication of shorting activity.
If silver lease rates went from under 1% to over 2% in one week,
then silver is about to be hit by short selling. It will have the
usual effect on POS.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:41 - ID#348257)
cellophane noodles
It never fails to happen that the fiscal and monetary mismanagement of governments gets conveniently obscured just when the sh*t hits the fan by blaming speculators. China's call for "transparency" in ANYTHING is laughable. "Speculators" could no more bring down a healthy currency than a lone child wrestle a full-grown water buffalo to the ground. The free actions of hedge fund managers and operators in the free markets should carry the same uninsured risk to their contributors as Joe sixpack bears when he buys his mutual fund shares at the top. Pat Buchanan is correct when he says that all of these "bailouts" are for the investors and not the nations themselves. Certainly not the people - for they inevitably pay for the mismanagement of their lords by impoverishment. The answer is not to comfort investors. The answer is monetary and fiscal sanity. A U.S. budget "balanced" by the spending of Social Security funds is just another example of the worse criminality and subterfuge of government. Let not the pots be calling the kettles anything. At least the hedge funds don't force "contributions" at the point of a gun or under threat of a prison term.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:42 - ID#411440)
2 jims: you are right. A commodity price explosion is too strong
an expression for what I feel is about to happen. I think the
proper expression is 'reversal in the downward trend in commodity prices'. The point I was trying to make is that the Can$ will
display an inverse to the ECU for the same reasons.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:49 - ID#284255)
DOD braces for space storms
Atmospheric disruptions in 2000 could interfere with satellite, comm systems

Iridium, which will be the largest commercial satellite constellation with 72 low-earth-orbit satellites, will also fall prey to the effects of the sun, Hildner said.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 07:57 - ID#43349)
@Mike Sheller
There is depth to mind, yes. There is also depth to human mind.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 08:01 - ID#43349)
I see some irony here

(Sat Oct 31 1998 08:24 - ID#284255)
Gollum & Mike
T'is an infinite concept.

Is well worth reading.
There's about six pages on the dissection of this poem on this page.
A fascinating read.

It's sort of mind bogling and one wonders,
What it is doing on their web site.
But then when one can glimpse around the corners
There is much to see.

There is an almost spiritual essence about it.
And if one can grasp this?
It's almost the Yin & Yang of charting
Plus much more.

Well worth the print out. ^o-o^

(Sat Oct 31 1998 08:26 - ID#284255)
Swing Chart Updated

Contrary indicator
(Sat Oct 31 1998 08:36 - ID#343185)
My estimate of Y2K severity and when the public will wake up
is 5e. I am a programmer with many years of experience, and I know that large projects are almost never completed on time. Considering that many companies have barely started their embedded systems analysis, especially utilities like the power and water companies, I see no likelihood that they will finish in time.
If there is anyone here who still needs an explanation of the problem and how we got in this mess, you might want to check out

(Sat Oct 31 1998 09:06 - ID#33180)
VERY funny book recommendation for traders and investors
"God is My Broker" by Christopher Buckley and Brother Tycoon ( a fictitious broker turned monk ) is a quick, easy read which kept me laughing out loud. Our public library catalogued it in 261.8, which is Dewey non-fiction religion, clearly a mistake for an obvious fictional satire. In it, a monk enriches a bankrupt monastery by using investment tips from the daily scripture readings, and the abbot turns the abbey into a wine-sotted theme park worth millions, until the pope's emissary absconds with the profits. Lots of good satire on get-rich-quick schemes and bad business advice, including the 7 and a half rules for investment success.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 09:29 - ID#317211)
Sharefin & The Baltic banking group?
This site never ceases to amaze and dazzle.
The search for truth, yes. Gold is but one link.

Excellent mental exercise. Thank you.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:01 - ID#45173)
Debt culture
When I was a kid I was watching a movie on TV. I can't recall the name, maybe it was 30 years ago. In one scene a group of merchants pulled into town promising to sell all sorts of goods, from cars to appliances, that the townspeople could not afford, on credit. The merchants were potrayed as the bad guys, the townsfolk noble for resisting the "play now pay later" message of the merchants. I recall this so clearly because in those days if you wanted to buy a car, you saved up money and, depending on how much you could save, you bought a cheap car or an expensive one, a car you could afford. This is what my parents did and my friends' parents. The idea that anyone would foolishly spend hard-earned money on interest, and take the risks associated with buying on credit, shocked me.

In those days, except for your home, which you planned to keep for many years and bought with a low-rate, fixed mortgage, you didn't buy anything on credit. Buying with high-interest rate, short term loans -- before credit cards became ubiquitous, lay-away plans -- was for the poor and uneducated.

Through no conspiracy but through the slow and subtle process of cultural change, short term debt has come to be viewed as a mundane part of life. The perception of debt risk has disolved to nothing in an era of perpetual asset expansion.

While the GDP numbers for Q3 show a healthy 3.3% growth, savings are down to an historically low 0.1% from 0.4% in Q2 and 5.5% in 1994. Consumer spending accounts for 75% of GDP. For all practical purposes, the average American is spending everything he or she earns to maintain that 3.3% GDP. Another way to look at it is that more than half of all Amerians are spending more than they make. Not surprisingly, it is the least educated and poorest half of America that is supporting the economy with debt in excess of their assets and debt rates in excess of their incomes. Fifty three percent of the savings that middle-class Americans do have is in the stock market.

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see why the Federal government must do everything in its power to keep the economy moving forward. If it slips back at all, it slips back fast and far. The middle class becomes poor and the poor become impoverished.

Angry voters.


(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:03 - ID#333123)
Charts and TA
2BRO2B? ( your 21:41 last evening ) : that is my belief too. I remember in my biology student days having to get to grips with textbookfulls of abstruse mathematics and statistical analysis of "population dynamics" - much of it based on charts of predator-prey populations. The population "cycles" that were revealed by the charts are now known to be bogus. Hence all the sophisticated math was so much rubbish. Another similar example is the belief that if you watch the waves on the beach, every seventh is the big one. Oh, by the way - in the predator-prey research, the prey species was often the lemming. Very appropriate parallel with today's stockmarkets !


(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:07 - ID#45173)
Gollum: "Japan is facing a possible crisis."
Ya think?

But this is a very telling piece. The war of words is escalating. But also the war of deeds. Did you see the post last night about how the Japanese in the past fews months are dumping US Treasuries and buying euro treasuries?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:09 - ID#258195)
Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
26 Oct | 67.57 | 67.88 | 67.51 |
27 Oct | 68.23 | 68.31 | 68.08 |
28 Oct | 68.16 | 68.48 | 68.08 |
29 Oct | 68.02 | 68.24 | 67.82 |
30 Oct | 67.92 | 68.10 | 67.70 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
This week the index has flirted with the bottom of the 68 to 70 trading range which was established during the seven-week period which commenced 1st Dec 1997. A fall below the 12 Dec 97 low of 67.7 makes a recession in real economies throughout the world a much more likely prospect. If Central Banks do not act soon to pre-empt further signs of world recession, this True Gold Index could fall below its 18-year low of 66.93 of 2nd Sept 1992. In that event I will be hoping ( sic ) for support at 65.00. If that can be realised, and True Gold Index turns up strongly from 65.00, this chart will be making a strong Buy signal.
Note that since its high of 2nd October ( when this index stood at 72.73 ) the true value of gold has fallen by 6.8%. Because the US Dollar has also fallen at the same time by 3.6% against all other currencies, this has limited the fall in the dollar price of gold to 3.2% during October.

For anyone maintaining a chart of the monthly True Value of Gold, the monthly average index figure for October was 69.0 This year's monthly average Index figures are as follows :
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
1998 | 070 | 071 | 072 | 075 | 073 | 073 | 073 | 072 | 070 | 069 |
The monthly figures for the 16 years going back to 1982 were posted on Sunday 20th Sept at 11:00am

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:11 - ID#258195)
Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates and Weekly Summary
For Fri 30 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.58---------------1.27-------------1.38-----------------1.71
( Change ) ---- ( + 0.02 ) -------- ( - 0.05 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ----------- ( + 0.04 )

SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
Silver Lend Rate----3.20--------------2.40--------------1.70-----------------1.40
Silver Lease Rate---2.05--------------2.82--------------3.27-----------------3.35
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.37 ) -------- ( - 0.40 ) ------- ( - 0.30 ) ----------- ( - 0.15 )
Lease Rate equals LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 26th Oct to Friday 30th Oct
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 0.80,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,0.74,,,,,,,,,,0.56,,,,,,,,0.58
3-Month - | 1.49,,,,,,,1.44,,,,,,,,1.41,,,,,,,,,,1.32,,,,,,,,1.27
6-Month - | 1.45,,,,,,,1.44,,,,,,,,1.42,,,,,,,,,,1.39,,,,,,,,1.38
12-Month| 1.81,,,,,,,1.80,,,,,,,,1.77,,,,,,,,,,1.75,,,,,,,,1.71
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 0.87,,,,,,,1.72,,,,,,,,2.02,,,,,,,,,,2.42,,,,,,,,2.05
3-Month- | 1.52,,,,,,,2.62,,,,,,,,3.02,,,,,,,,,,3.22,,,,,,,,2.82
6-Month- | 2.22,,,,,,,3.07,,,,,,,,3.52,,,,,,,,,,3.57,,,,,,,,3.27
12-Month| 2.35,,,,,,,3.00,,,,,,,,3.40,,,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,3.35

Note that higher spot silver prices this week drove Silver Lending Rates down, and these in turn resulted in higher Lease rates for Silver. IMHO

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:14 - ID#45173)
Quote of the week
Gorbachev: "The dog is barking, the wind is blowing, but the caravan is pushing ahead."

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:20 - ID#290456)
Max Moseley @ TA

TA has a little more relevance to the world, when both the hawks and the lemmings can read the charts.

In many cases, the charts become self-fulfilling, and are themselves the cause of price movements.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:40 - ID#290456)

It is to be a book publish on the Internet.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:41 - ID#284255)
Thanks to the person who suplied the Baltic Banking link.
Some very good articles there but that poem and narrative were just the best.

WebTV Resources

Survival Info

Bechtler Mint

(Sat Oct 31 1998 10:51 - ID#284255)
Can Kitco make a difference????

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:05 - ID#347457)
@sharefin (My vote)
you wrote: "Not that I am a techie. Just that I read 16++ hours a day on the subject. Am on 8 Y2k forums and about 20 mailing lists. Maybe I suffer a bit from information overload. ^o-o^"

Sharefin, it is better not to be only a techie to fully understand this problem. Y2K has a multiple faces and implications. Technical, economical, sociological, and international being probably the most important. You don't have too many people who will comprehend all of them. We usually know a bunch about one area and make guesses what will happen in the other. Due to the basic human nature - fear of unknown - we tend to overestimate the impact in other areas.

As far as information overload goes, you are right, after reading too much about it, information overload is unavoidable. The problem is that the forums are used to discuss the different issues and see how other people deal with it. For that reason you see discussions on a significant numbers of issues. Keep in mind, that these things are discussed because somebody tries to deal with them and correct them. Also, every entity has to deal just with a small subset of these issue ( nobody is exposed to all of them, exposure depends on your business environment, technology environment, and company position in overall standing in society ) . However, that overflow of problems discussed everywhere, tend to lead us into state of hopelessness.

Again, don't take me wrong, as a matter of fact I am known to be more on negative side in Y2K circles than on the positive. Still, I believe that society will go on.

Now, it's 8am, time for me to go sailing and forget about this Y2K stuff ;- )

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:10 - ID#411259)
..... Gollum @ Can mind exist without God? .....

Could God exist without mind?

Lan Man
(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:18 - ID#320108)
@The Baltic Banking Group Report #13
The most recent off balance sheet financing mania is derivatives. The regulators have not required that reserves be set aside to cover the risks assumed. The argument goes something like this. If we have one client that is long the British pound and another client who is short the British pound, then the full amount of the risk that the pound will go up or down is borne by one or the other client. We therefore do not need to set aside any reserve for the risk we are taking as a bank since we are only facilitating the transaction as an intermediary. The bank regulators have bought into this logic and currently there are virtually no reserves to meet the potential future loss from counter party default risk. What has been totally ignored is that when one or the other party defaults on half of the transaction, the bank will be asked to make up the loss to the other side. The bank is extending its credit when it acts as the intermediary and will be called upon to pay up when one side defaults. There are at least three trillion dollars of such liabilities assumed by the NYC money center banks. If just 10% of the clients default, that would more than wipe out all of the money center banks' capital. It is not difficult to script a number of situations under which this could occur. That is what is different this time. That is why the Federal Reserve has bailed out Long Term Capital Management LP and that is why interest rates are being dropped. There is a significant systemic risk for which there are no adequate reserves.

Rest at:

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:28 - ID#219363)
Agree that being short the Internet stocks probably isn't a good idea. The ideal situation, if you believed that the market was going to take a good downturn, would be to find a highly over-valued stock, one that hadn't had that much volatility yet, that would turn very volatile if we dropped below a certain point. It's kind of like the day the dollar dumped, if you could have gotten a PUT the day before, it would have been cheap. Even if the dollar goes back to where it was before that day, the PUT options are going to stay expensive for a while because the dollar has already shown that it can make a move far and fast, so people don't want to miss the next move. On the stock PUT options, since the market downturn, some stocks have fallen far and fast, and they're back to where they were for the most part ( internet stocks for example ) , but simply by moving that far they have pushed the options prices through the roof, and the options on the Internet stocks were outrageous to begin with. In my opinion, Lucent is a good pick, MSFT, any of the high-flyers that haven't been hit to hard yet. All just my opinion.


Lan Man
(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:31 - ID#320108)
@Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 43
TD, Time Dilation, the Crouch-Echlin Effect or CE/TD is an elusive but serious aspect of the larger Year 2000 issue that was discovered by Jace Crouch and Mike Echlin and first reported on the newsgroup

Specifically, TD refers to the time and date instabilities that will occur in the year 2000 and beyond on some personal computers and some embedded systems. These time and date instabilities occur when BIOS time and date routines improperly access a non-buffered RTC during startup, resulting in a personal computer or an embedded system that has difficulty calculating or retaining the correct time and/or date in the year 2000 and beyond.

Rest at:

Note on the Time Dilation Effect - just one more formerly unknown problem that has recently surfaced, more to come. GET GOLD!

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:34 - ID#190411)
Could god exist without mind? Of course.
I create things through manufacturing, none of these creations have a mind. Am I God? Silly, yes?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:39 - ID#28882)
Dabchick - Normalized gold values (your 10:09)

Thanks for those numbers -- a different an interesting perspective. sam_a.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:42 - ID#339274)
Gold/DM & PLat/DM
FWIW Gold broke out of a triple bottom,Platinum has a rising
shoulder.Upshot; Monday Platinum will be up considerable.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:47 - ID#28882)
Embry on TV at 1:00 Kitco Standard Time

Think the program is "Investors Online" ( haven't heard of it myself. )

I don't get cable at all, so if someone picks this up, please post impresessions, summary, etc. Much appreciated.


(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:48 - ID#290287)
The following is for you from lurker Mr. Bar.
A gulp and a puff..namaste..


Want to thank you for introducing me to Itronics ( itro ) some time ago. after checking over a two month period I took a position due to silver interests. I have two kids who are golf pros who checked out gold n grow. Decided to add a pp package. Have never owned a more stockholder friendly equity. Dr Whitney, Pres., may be best of Bill Gates and Arnold Palmer. Thinking of selling ssrif, ssc, and ely and adding to position. At $0.25 I can really leverage my silver position. Go gold. Go silver. Go Golf!!!! Bar.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:58 - ID#28882)
Oh oh - the other sam is back (or somethings pretty screwy)

The 11:48 was written by sam1, the 11:47 & 11:39 were written by sam_a ( me ) . We have duplicate handles happening - Bart? Someone?


(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:59 - ID#344326)
China buying Euros...
I don't understand why articles are not appearing about the obvious, namely that the dollar is going to tank once the EURO is launched. We talk about it here and ANOTHER speaks of this but I find it interesting that it isn't talked about more.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 11:59 - ID#343259)
Monex 40% Silver Prices
Couple of questions.

I recently bought 40% Siver coin from Monex ( Physical Delivery ) because of the "insurance factor" ( A silver mountie? :- ) ) i.e. They can only go as low as the face value. Yesterday, on Monex's site the price went up 37 cents. Silver only went up a few cents or so. Anyone hazard a guess as to why the disparity? They ( Monex ) really would have preferred that I sign up for the leveraged account, but it really is not my style. I prefer to buy and hold. Perhaps there are more like me?

Question 2. I hear references to "junk" silver. My understanding from reading here is that 90% silver coin is being referred to. Then what is 40% coin referred to as "Really Really Junk"? It seems to me that since the 40% coin has less silver, than it is closer to face, and that is a good thing for limiting downside risk.

I have opted to hold 40% coin for my Y2k "Stash" instead of FRN's because they are:

1 ) In small denominations ( no "change" problem )

2 ) Have limited downside risk

3 ) Are US Currency

4 ) Could appreciate if silver takes off ( Unlike FRN's )

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:00 - ID#333123)
Silverbaron: yes, of course I have to agree your point. It probably explains the success of some nimble ( short-term ) traders. As an investor, not a trader, I see no benefit to be had from this effect though.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:02 - ID#190411)
Thanks for your reply.
I am with you on all of this, and have been carrying LEAPS which have gone from 46x to16x to 105x to 22x. I cannot afford to do this without some help from someone that watches this all of the time.
I realise that the shortcomings of the bear mkt funds will reduce what I can do on my own, but, the volatility is where the money is.
My big hit was lost because I was on a train, andmy broker didn't execute the trade.
I'd like to buy into a portion of your put positions, as I sense that you are able to stay away from the squeezable positions. Alas, that's not the case, so I will do the best I can to reap something on the back of the current euphoria.

As a bit of info to combat the utter BS that the gommint statistics, I offer the following:
The toolmaking and moldmaking in this area has gone from 60 hours/week to 40 hrs/wk in the past 3 weeks. I have a fair amount of cleaning and organisation for the employees, but no work. I have never seen anything resembling this, ever.
EJ, that Gloomy Gus, is probably right. At any rate, I would be short this fantasia-rally.

EJ, 10:01 -- Isn't that the nub of it?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:09 - ID#284255)
Thanks mate

It is a confusing bunch of information.
So many differing aspects on an everyday basis.

Personally I'm thriving on it and going through a great learning curve.
Always chasing the overview.
With intentions of getting heavily into contingency planning.

I don't care for going over the deep end with doom and gloom.
Just a sensible rational focus on prudent planning.

I went into the local council on Friday and no one there is even aware as yet.
I'd guess I'm the first to ask about Y2k at the counter.
Six receptionists shook their heads in ignorance.
And didn't know who to contact.

This is in a town of 140,000 pop.
No industry apart from tourism.
We are going to cop it hard here.

So now I have to beat my drum and raise awareness
And see if I can stimulate some action.
Last thing I want to do is spook them all.
But they need to become aware so they can start contingency planning.

I have a boatload of information I'm sifting through to push my point across.
Hopefully I'll be able to impress them enough to just let me in the door.

Gentle prodding just to start with.

This one would have to be my favorite so far.

Anyway, have a great day out on the water.
My heart still yearns for the sea
So I'll be thinking of you out there enjoying yourself.

May the winds be fair.
And the deep blue sea serene.


Gusto Oro
(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:16 - ID#430260)
A couple of years ago I was buying the 40% Kennedy halves minted between 1965 and 1968 at 58 cents a piece. Last time I picked some up a few months ago they were 70 cents a piece. You are right about the downside--only to fifty cents. You actually can find them at or below melt at times. --Al

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:16 - ID#219363)
If things started moving my way I would be worried about my broker executing my trade as well. I've got a little bit better situation in that my broker is right across the street and I can physically go into his office and, well, threaten his life *grin*, if he doesn't move. My concern would be that if things move my way, they'll be moving against a lot of other people's positions, and that the office would be filled with a crowd holding torches and pitchforks when I got there and that I would be the least of his worries. I'm not able to watch the markets everyday either, that's why I mostly post on weekends and late evenings.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:29 - ID#219363)
Also, I've been caught on travel too. Had purchased some MSFT options and went away on business as they were falling off. I didn't want to sell them for the price they were at when I left and they bounced off the top ( MSFT bottom ) while I was gone. So there I am, holding PUT options against MSFT that I got for a 1/4 and could have sold for 1 1/2. So far that's the only trade I've gotten stuck in, and I'm hopeful that it'll go my way once again.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:45 - ID#284255)

One Million in 98 Campaign
Petition to Secure the Mandatory Labeling
of all Genetically Engineered Foods

Submitted to the President of the United States,
Congress, USDA and FDA

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:54 - ID#43349)
Just as a line cannot exist without a surface to contain it, so mind cannot exist without something to contain it.

Flatlanders cannot "see" more than two dimensions, yet flatland itself needs to exist within a higher space. So we, too, cannot "see" beyond mind, yet mind needs a higher context within which to exist.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:58 - ID#43349)
Japan is facing a very real crises. They are in the process of passing it from the banks to the government, but like a hot potato it will burn whichever hands are holding it.

We wait to see if they cash in their treasury reserves and pass the potato on to their debtors.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 12:58 - ID#290287)
Hey sam_a, don't worry, I hardly post at all anymore. Namaste'


(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:03 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re coins
Not too far back there was a mention of a Mexican coin available for about $20. It is supposed to be .900 fine. Do you have any recollection or URL's to find this?? Many thanx, Charlie

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:04 - ID#31868)
sam, Mr. Bar, Namaste' gulps and puffs all around...glad I could be of service and I
feel that ITRO is in for big is good to invest in a company providing beneficial product which can also make money for the investor...yup...uh huh...

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:09 - ID#43349)
Passing the poisoned potato
What is a dollar worth? It's worth a dollar.

What will a dollar buy? Right now it will buy quite a bit. When liquidity is low and credit is tight a dollar is hard to find.

So if you are a central bank and much of your reserves are in dollar based assets you are in good shape. Especially when stated in terms of local currency.

Let's say you have a lot of obligations in terms of that local currency. Let's pick Yen for example. and you decide to sell your dollar backed reserves for Yen.

Then the dollar falls, dollar based inflation runs rampant, and your reserves become worth not so very much either in terms of what they will buy nor in terms of Yen. Then you are not in so good a shape.

One needs an exit strategy.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:11 - ID#43349)
Away to do mulit dimensioned errands
will be back later...

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:14 - ID#401460)
The Middle Class

``People are terrified,'' she said. ``It used to be a good company to work for. After those salaries and benefits, it's not easy finding anything that comes close.''

Middle class people in Mexico and all around the globe are being squeezed out of once-comfortable lifestyles -- and in many cases their jobs -- by the crisis in an increasingly globalized economy.

And when an economic crisis hits like the one that has rippled around the world over the past year, middle class professionals are often the first to be squeezed as interest rates soar and international companies trim payrolls.

``Traditionally, the middle class was a family where the father worked and supported the entire family,'' said Luis Feld, a 39-year-old taxi driver in Buenos Aires, Argentina. ``Now the entire family is working, including the mother and the oldest child.''

``The middle class is being absorbed into the working class to the point that in some cases it has practically disappeared.''
No Democracy has ever survived once the middle class is taxed over 40%, in the United States the middle class is now taxed over 50%.

A third of the passengers on a shuttle flight are not American, how much did their ticket cost them and who paid for it? And the Space station program is ready to be launched in the near future the first phase to be launched from Russia. The new world order is here.

The US of A will pay for it, what the Heh! Print, Print, Print, Print,..........and Print some more.


(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:23 - ID#219363)
Agreed, the dollar still has a long way to go down. The dollar has a lot of customers: all the folks in the states, a bunch in Canada, and loads of foreign investors, it's a nifty thing. But so much flight money has went into it that the price has been driven all out of proportion. It's a nice thing when foreign folks are competing with you for the cash in your pocket, drives the price up, just like any other commodity. But in the end, when the fat lady has finally sang her last tune, the United States public will be left holding most dollars, including the ones being pumped into the economy right now, and lots of dollars held in foreign reserves. It'll have to happen someday, and it'll probably happen to some extent when and if the economy slows down with the rest of the world, but I don't think the Euro is going to do it. Will the dollar approach worthless ? I don't think so, but some kind of check will be made on it at some point. I'm all about SELL DOLLARS.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:36 - ID#219363)
Something I'd like to see is a graph of the US equity markets plotted in terms of Yen instead of Dollars, talk about scary. So you're an investor over in Japan, you've dumped all your holdings in the Nikkei and moved your money into the US markets, and you've made out over the past year as the local markets fell and the US markets got pumped up in Yen terms and in real US dollar terms. But then the US equities drop a little bit, and then the dollar falls 30 yen or more, and then the FED in the states starts lowering rates. What's a foreign investor to do ? The folks at Kitco called all this a long time ago, it's nice to see it fall out the way it was forecast, I pay close attention to what is said here.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:52 - ID#31868)
new world order...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
I find the term new world order to be a complete rescission of itself from the outset...first off the term is completely off base and wrong...there is nothing new about the fact it is getting older with each day that passes... that something which someone has sent for or decreed or is it true that order has been invented by Man so that he might falsely bolster his feeble attempt in controlling and explaining the environment which surrounds that he can pretend to sleep peacefully

It is all too humanistic and arrogant for my tastes and sensitivities... I have seen people in or of power reduced to mere...frail...mortals in less time than it takes for a Humming Bird to flaps its wings

To those who would be and or act as Gods I would suggest they sit back and see themselves for what they really area brief conduit that Nature has provided for one in her inventoryMankindto step through that narrow portal known as evolutionwhich separates us from the animals and allows us to proceed with sensitivity bettering our attempts to understand spirituality and respecting the integrity of creation

no moreno less

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 31 1998 13:59 - ID#384350)
Equities ready for a Fall?
I got an email from a friend who is a very good Futures Trader. About 5 weeks ago he wrote this:

"I am currently expecting it ( Dec S&P ) to top out on Oct. 1 ( this Thursday ) , probably at about 1105-1115. From there, I expect the bear market to resume, taking it down to the 850 zone by mid November."

The date was off, but the market has gone up to his target. Yesterday he wrote me this:


Hi folks,

S+P peaked today at 1110.00.
My fractal target for this top was at 1109.00.
I am short at 1109.00.

While this doesn't mean that 1110.00 is the final top, the S+P almost
always reverses just beyond my fractal targets.

At the high in July, my target was at 1196.70, and the high was 1199.40.
At the low in September, my target was at 942.0, and the low was at
At the next high in September, my target was at 1059.00, and the high
was at 1060.50.
At the next low in September. my target was at 1001.00, and the low was
at 999.00.
At the next high in September, my target was at 1077.50, and the high
was at 1080.40.

I mention all of these, not to toot my own horn, but rather to explain
what will be an aggressive trading strategy for this short trade.
My current stop is at 1123.10, but that will rapidly be lowered once the
market begins falling.
I plan is to add more contracts next week, possibly as early as Sunday

Assuming 1110.00 is the top, the current downside fractal target from
here is at 1021.00.

The other point is that this high may very well be the final top in the
whole corrective rally.
If so, the implication is that the "other shoe" in the bear market is
now going to begin, with significant potential for an eventual drop to
approximately 825.00, and an outside chance of an eventual drop to about

I'm certainly not predictiing that this will happen, but I do see the

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:17 - ID#350145)
u.s. dollar and economy
i think the u.s. economy, and probably its currency, will remain the world leader for several reasons: we have the most resources, the most advanced technology, the english language is becoming the worlds language through natural selection, whcih gives us a big advatage, we have the most money, our political system is about as good as the human species can do ( i wish we could do better, but am not very hopeful ) the human species seems to prefer the national enquirer to Plato's Republic. we have transparency in our economic system ( relatively speaking ) , we have more freedom and equality than most, and last we are, once again, about the best educated, once again, for the human species. seems to me to be the ingredients for top dog.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:22 - ID#45173)
What if the Japanese and Chinese and Brits, etc., all decide between now and, say, the end of the year to sell lots of US treasuries, to raise cash and to exchange for euros? Will there be enough buyers? What if our gummit has to buy them?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:30 - ID#35757)
Do they have to sell? What percentage of foreigh money is in short term bonds? What if they don't roll them over?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:30 - ID#219363)
Anybody know why I suddenly can't post graphics to the FTP site for addition to the text post ? ftp server says that /pub doesn't exist.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:31 - ID#433172)
I think we agree on the "new world order", but not on all the particulars of your last post. Evolution is no narrow portal seperating man from animals, we all pass thru natures various portals alike, man is an animal.Not to under-rate man at all, man under-rates nature.

Order in nature comes from the bottom up, this Clinton order is from the top. That would be OK so long as the bottom even knew what they were talking about.

The written record on Gods originally coupled them with animals, man recognized the tie between all life, since we have people gods now nature is taking a beating. And man has grown more fearful of now and next.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:34 - ID#45173)
Wall Street musical
Imagine the traders at Goldman, Sachs bolting up from their desks Monday morning at 8am all at once and breaking out in chorus:

Lull them into the calm,
Lull them into the calm, yah!
Lull them into the calm,
And rrrrrriiiiip their faces off, hah!


(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:35 - ID#434298)
Highrise@13:14 The dream of becoming "middle class"
My peers may become "middle class" after all. Not because they may rise in income but because the middle class's income may sink to our level.
Thus we may revert to days of old when two classes existed: peasants & aristocracy - just like in many 3rd world countries today and perhaps what Clinton and his cronies applied to Arkansas and now are trying to apply to the rest of us.

This quote from your post describes this future.
"The middle class is being absorbed into the working class to the point that in some cases it has practically disappeared."

For most of my peers these two quotes never applied because the middle class dream wasn't lost - they never made it and likely never will after the coming depression.
"It used to be a good company to work for. After those salaries and benefits..."
"a family where the father worked and supported the entire family,"

Even the 2nd fifth of the population determined by income distribution
is paying 50% in taxes if you start with what an employer must set aside for payroll expense and end with what the employee takes home in merchandise, services or rent after sales taxes, etc.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:37 - ID#31868)
George, Namaste' gulp and a puff and Happy Pumpkin to ya...I can live with your
last post as the particulars and specifics are themselves constantly evolving through new definitions and understanding...

As for Clintler I despise him and those who would act as Gods...

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:38 - ID#341234)
To: Gianni Dioro
I sure hope your friend is right. My BearX is taking a beating, but I plan to keep it as an insurance police no matter what happens. Just like holding some physical gold.

I work for Compaq in Houston. They just laid off part of their manufacturing staff on Friday. I still have a job, but it made me think. If the economy goes down the tubes, we will need something to fall back on. Most people have bet it all on the current economy ( jobs, savings, home equity, etc. ) This economy is definitely not a 'sure thing'. BearX = ecomomic insurance.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:51 - ID#45173)
--Do they have to sell?
In the case of the Japanese, yes. They are absrobing losses from their banks. How much and how fast? I don't know. Let's say the selling is orderly but each sale has to cover the losses of each very large bank.

--What percentage of foreigh money is in short term bonds?
Good question. Last I checked, 43% of all US treasuries are owned by foreign holders. The distribution among bills and notes and bonds, I dunno.

--What if they don't roll them over?
They need to convert to Yen in the case of the Japanese, euros, too. euros of the other sellers as well.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 14:56 - ID#45173)
The 227 richest individuals in the world collectively hold more wealth than the 3 billion humans that represent the poorest half of the world's population. Income ratio of 13,215,859:1.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:03 - ID#7285)
This was probably posted already - published 98/09/28
I was looking around the London Business news and this article.

John Disney
(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:05 - ID#24135)
platinum and GET
for cyclist ..
( meant to post this .. but I must have
forgotten .. distracted by horror films )
believe plat chart in yen or $ will control relative
to dmark ..
however .. refer to T.josephs GET site. He has a big
support for plats where it is. To confuse matters ..
I use same software and it sets MOB support around
320.... Nonetheless .. my weekly yen chart has support
at present level ..
when plats turns .. it must rise quickly .. perhaps
as high as 380 in a short time.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:07 - ID#424394)
EJ - so they do - so what
They likely also produce more wealth as well - at least some of which becomes permanent savings - as in capital goods, buildings and infrastructure.
Those of us near the bottom consume what we make and save little to nothing.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:11 - ID#45173)
I agree with you that BEARX will do well when the economy begins to reverse and the stock market falls. I have held onto it during the current several week long bear market rally because I know I'm not smart enough to time the drop, and I expect the fall to be swift, too swift to give me time to back back in. But make no mistake, BEARX is a speculative gamble. It's a derivative. If the underlying does not behave the way the model predicts... No ones retirement money doesn't belong in BEARX and more than it does in AOL, IMHO.

Gold is also speculative. If it were not, then we'd not have the arguments here about whether it's going to rise or fall in deflation or inflation or stagflation or whatever perverse mix and series of these we get. An argument can be made that gold never loses buying power, only dollar value. However, Dabchicks tables show otherwise: gold dollar price of gold sometimes falls with the dollar.

To me, the real threat is a rapidly spiralling debt collapse initiated by a rapid rise in unemployment, and all the drastic things the Fed will attempt to do to forstall and stop it. Inflation is like bad blood in the body, to be avoided at all costs, per the Fed policy since Volker. But there's one thing that's actually worse, a debt collapse, a coronary failure.


(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:18 - ID#45173)
A person who earns an income of $4,000,000 a year certainly generates more wealth than a man who earns $40,000 a year. The guy making $40,000 a year is, on average, saving $40.00 a year.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:19 - ID#242325)
Wayne Crimini very bearish on the dollar. But reluctant to buy gold because he feels the CBs have rigged the market against the longs.

Gianni Dioro
(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:23 - ID#384350)
My friend is very nimble and sharp. He can change directions on a trade if he interprets it as such. It does look like the market is ripe, and after upcoming elections are over there may be a withdrawal of support. Harry Schultz has been saying in his recent newsletters that the market would likely rally to where it is now ( roughly 8400-8700 ) and that people shouldn't be fooled as it needs to unwind to much lower levels.

Also look at what the system has made of us. We used to have a large degree of self-sufficiency in our communities. Now there is an overabundance of so called "useless eaters" void of any self-sufficiency.

When society breaks down, people will go hungry.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:32 - ID#240241)
Just got back from my numismatic dealer
I've heard some things here that have been said about platinum & krug's
that are apparently not true. At least from the dealer I go too. I
bought some krug's when gold spot was $282. I bought them because they
were cheaper then the mapleleafs & eagles. I was told there was a lower
premium on them because of the previous US ban on them during apartied,
since the ban had been lifted, they were still out of favor as far as
investors were concerned, hence they were cheaper. Then someone here
said krugs were taxable & mapleleafs & eagles were not in reply to someone asking investment advice on coins. I don't remember all the details of that post because I don't save them. Also in the last few
days someone has been posting that there is a shortage of platinum coins.

Heres what my dealer just told me. ( I'm in Texas )

The only reason that mapleleafs & eagles have a higher premium is because
people are willing to pay it. The krugs I bought at 282 with a $9 preminum, I sold today for 300. Spot is currently I think around $293.
He paid me $7 over spot. So I made $9 a coin with an $11 rise in the POG. As far as taxes go, as long as your purchase is more than $1,000
it is not reportable to the IRS. Thats on any coin or bar because the
state of Texas considers it an investment. If you spend less then $1,000
then it is all taxable. As far as a scarcity of platium is concerned,
he just laughed & wanted to know where I heard that. He has not heard
anything about a scarcity of platium coins. I bought a few. They cost
me 7% over spot.

Anyway, this is what I was told & the fact that it cost me a total of
$2 per krug for the roundtrip in & out, I thought was a great deal.
Also, as long as you swap coins, bars for coins, bars, thats not reportable either. Even if its under the $1,000 limit.

Since my mind has been going since my youth, some of what I remember being posted here could be wrong. Thats why I went to the source.
By the way. The dealer I use has been around for a long, long time.

Now off to play LinksLS 1999 over the net with friends. Thats golf, er umm, gold related right?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:38 - ID#242325)
Your friend's market projections make a lot of sense.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:44 - ID#240241)
In my previous post, replace "investment" with "Collectable" or else
it would be taxable, right? LOL

John Disney
(Sat Oct 31 1998 15:50 - ID#24135)
plobrem .. what plobrem ??
Looking at the numbers from the last Economist. Industrial
production for the USA. Year on year grew 3.1% August
basis. BUT the last 3 months ( annualized ) FELL at
a rate of minus 1.8%.
Looking at Japan .. Ind. production fell at an annual
rate of 9.1% BUT only fell at 4.4% for the last 3
months annualized.
.. this says that Japan is coming OUT of a BAD recession
and the USA is probably going into one.
... not much China data BUT August Ind production was
7.9% annual WHILE September rose to 10.2% ..
... woo thats pretty good ..
... countries like Phillippines, Thailand, Malaysia,
Indonesia are in heavy sh!t. .. but S. Korea shows signs
of budding life ( or better dying less quickly ) .

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:17 - ID#273432)
chas @ $20 Mexican gold coin
Charlie - I see these 2 1/2 peso coins at auction frequently on EBAY for about this price, but I don't know if they are sold in bulk by any of the major dealers:

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:20 - ID#252391)
So you want to see a bear market
The following URL is to the Vancouver Stock exchange index which I understand is make up of junk gold stocks - excuse the suggestion. Notice the turn, however, and notice the expanding volumn.
What could this be saying

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:28 - ID#7285)
More on Russian plans to mint Gold coins

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:31 - ID#252391)
SI's Silver Guru Ray Hughes says:
To: Ron Starr ( 1351 )
From: Ray Hughes
Friday, Oct 30 1998 1:09PM ET
Reply # of 1355

Ron: I'm cautiously optimistic ( I've even learned to talk like an economist ) :
1. G7 package announced today could calm investors and firm up speculative

2. Asian economic activity might actually begin to improve in the now-to-February
timeframe, aided by improved confidence engendered by the G7 action.

3. US and European economic activity seems still on a growing track so silver
supply/demand deficit is intact and reducing available inventory.

4. This inventory drawdown is getting newspaper coverage. That will increase interest
on the part of small speculators. Small speculators could withdraw massive amounts of
silver from the market supply. Keep an eye on figures for silver Eagle coin sales as a
barometer on this important issue.

In conclusion, we've been set back by the market's turmoil, but could still see a
worthwhile ( 50 cents-to-$1.00 ) play in silver this winter.

If not, we will, absolutely, have a millionaire-making rally within three years. The deficit
guarantees it. Only timing is in question. Play conservatively, keep your marbles intact,
and one day lightning will strike.

Ray Hughes

Charles Keeling
(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:37 - ID#344225)
@ jims RE VSE movement
One stock on the VSE recently took off from 1/2
and ran to 3.47. It did so while racking up
heavy volume for 3-4 days. I am going to get me some
of ARP ARP ARP. I need one more bow wow in
my portfolio. Waiting now for profit taking to run
it's course.

Have you noticed that there is heavy movement in the
Andes of Argentina & Chile? Part of the ring of fire
has been moved up to form the high Andes mountains
many, many years ago. Theres heavy minerals in them
thar hills. Cheap labor, low taxes and world class
deposits. ABX, PDG, and NEW are all active in the

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:48 - ID#341234)
To: EJ
BearX is definitely a gamble. I am in it about 20%, and I can barely resist sending in more money. I just keep telling myself that I could be wrong about the economy, my timing might be off, and having plenty of cash is pretty good insurance in itself. Hopefully, I can control my greed.

If the economy does head south, high unemployment and a debt collapse are definite possibilities. After being faced with a lay off, I realized that high unemployment is much worse when you are one of the people unemployed.

As for gold, who knows? My guess is that a mild recession would be bad for gold ( less jewelry sales ) , but a depression with currency collapse could send it to the moon. Of course, if gold did go to the moon, the insulating vacuum of space would turn it into green cheese ( according to some of our more enlightened posters ) .

Please keep up the good work on this board. I am usually a lurker, and I always enjoy reading your posts.

To: Gianni Dioro

Please stop with the bearish posts. You are making me drool. How am I supposed to resist making more speculative investments in BearX? Seriously, I think wide spread suffering is a possibility in the near future. Unfortunately, there is nothing you or I can do about it except be prepared ourselves and not be part of the problem.

Charles Keeling
(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:51 - ID#344225)
@ jims RE: volume on VSE
ARP racked up 3-4 million shares a day for 2-3 days.
Yesterday it did 1.3 mill. Profit takers hit it for
.50 cents. It was all ARP on the VSE. It got my
attention, and I will be a buyer after things settle
down a bit more.

You could play ABX, or NEW to get a piece of this action
while being safe. Or, if you are a gambler you could
get you some ARP. Check it out.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:53 - ID#7285)
Japan's small companies get credit-guarantees to weather credit crunch.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:53 - ID#433172)
Investment advice?
My 18 year old son is a senior in high school, interested in Mac's and good with them. Not much of a student here, his teachers are mediocore to dull, gets a c+ if he turns in his work. He has been known to tear his work up right in front of the teacher, fiesty lad. He is quick minded.

The question is where do we go from here? College looks to me like extended high school and that would be disasterous and expensive. Computer training? at least it's real. Everything I got from college could have been learned in 1/2 semester, it was a joke, a joke on me. I would apprecieate any suggestions from you computer knowledgables.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 16:58 - ID#433172)
Thanks for the happy pumkin and all. I am a passionate fellow too.

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:07 - ID#242328)
Poor Puetz - Foiled By The Fed Again?
Man, I am *so* glad I've become so cynical over the past few years.

I absolutely refuse to bet against the Federal Reserve anymore. Poor
old James Davidson, James Grant and Steve Puetz *still* haven't
dealt the reality of the situation.

Check out this article from the Y2K newsgroup -

Friday October 30, 4:09 pm Eastern Time

INTERVIEW-Y2K fears to fuel 2-pct fed funds rate

By Scott Gerlach

NEW YORK, Oct 30 ( Reuters ) - The Federal Reserve will steadily cut U.S.
interest rates
through 1999 to ease borrowing costs for businesses trying to solve
their millennium bug
problems, an investment strategist said Friday.

Rob Schumacher, a strategist at Van Kampen Funds, said he expects the
Fed to cut the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for
overnight loans, to 2.00 percent by the third quarter of next year. It
currently stands at 5.00 percent.

U.S. banks have restricted lending to all but the highest quality
borrowers amid the current crisis wracking economies around the globe,
Schumacher said, pointing to a recent Fed report saying credit had
become more restrictive.

Further rate cuts are needed to encourage banks to lend to companies
striving to fix their computers before the new century, he said.

``As a result of Southeast Asia, Russia, Latin America and Long-Term
Capital Management happening all at the same time, credit spreads have
exploded,'' Schumacher told Reuters.

Without steady rate cuts, ``the capital to resolve this problem is not
going to be available,'' the strategist said.

Estimates vary, but U.S. businesses are expected to spend upward of $50
billion to address the millennium bug, the design flaw that prevents
some computer systems from correctly recognizing dates after Dec. 31,

Under normal circumstances, Schumacher said, firms would have three
choices about how to proceed:
1 ) allocate a portion of earnings for use in repair work;
2 ) spend profits to fix the problem or
3 ) borrow.

The financial turmoil abroad will limit earnings and profits available
for the task, Schumacher said, and ``right now, the borrowing part of
the equation is not available.''

Because of the work needing to be done on the year 2000 problem, the
liquidity situation now requires the same kind of attention the savings
and loan crisis demanded in the early 1990s, he said. In order to head
off the credit crunch that followed the widespread S&L failures, the
central bank eased monetary policy steadily over the space of three

``If we follow the pattern of what it took to re-liquify the banks, then
we need to bring the federal funds rate down to the level of inflation
to encourage banks to lend,'' Schumacher said.

Fed funds at 2.00 percent would approximate the current inflation rate
and virtually erase banks' money costs, he said.

The strategist said the Fed, which lowered the funds rate twice in late
September and early October, will continue cutting rates despite recent
economic data suggesting less of a slowdown than economists had

Data released on Friday showed that gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth
accelerated to a 3.3-percent annual pace in the third quarter from 1.8
percent in the second quarter.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 2.1-percent growth rate.
Other recent reports on durable goods orders and employment costs also
showed surprising strength.

But monetary policy must focus on economic performance 12 to 18 months
ahead, Schumacher said. Congress has approved little government spending
to correct the year 2000 problem, so without Fed attention, it could
hammer share prices, eroding consumer wealth and possibly provoking
recession, he said.

``It is an economic event that is going to happen,'' Schumacher said of
the millennium bug. ``Because it is going to happen, the money has to
come from somewhere.''

(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:09 - ID#7285)
"I don't see anything on the horizon that will create a problem for this market," Kuhn said.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:12 - ID#343449)


rub some dmso into the palm of your hand with some powdered
garlic.......wait about 20 seconds.....exhale, and tell me
what you taste......


(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:14 - ID#45173)
That's a tall order. I guess I'd start by asking what you son wants to do? Is he interested in computers?

I got into the computer biz because the economy was in a recession, I couldn't find a job, and a friend of the family threw me a rope. Turned out that I liked computers. It's a tough racket -- long hours, but no heavy lifting -- so your son had better like the things or he'll be miserable. I did lose interest in programming them pretty quickly, tho. So he can always use the technical skills and move into management or some other area of the business. Computers are becoming commoditized and biotech is more happening, but it's harder to get monoclonal antibodies to mess around with the way you can with a PC and programming software :- )

But if he's like most 18 year olds he doesn't care just yet.

College is good for testing the limits of personal depravity, a much underated activity for an 18 year old. Women, alcohol, literature, economics ( he must go through a socialist phase ) , alcohol, physics, math, women, alcohol, and political science. That's a well-rounded college education. He can learn the computer crap later.

I hope I've been a help, but it's not an easy question.


Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:18 - ID#242328)
Cold Fusion, Immortality, Y2K and the Future
I just can not believe what I'm reading these days. Cold Fusion is
real. For the past several years, I've been following the biotech
industry on and off, expecting to see a recession hammer hi-tech
and drive IS professionals into an accelerated boom of biotech.

I'm was *expecting* to see some serious aging research, but I didn't
think it would only take five years to start hearing about *halting*
the aging process. I was guessing at 10-15 years, at least.

And I expected the growth of biotech to be driven by IS, but I didn't
think it would be this quick either.

And now Uncle Sam is going to bail us of Y2K by giving away money.

Un-freeking-believable. Check this out -

_San Francisco_ magazine for November 1998.
"Forver Young" article on cover

Check out this article - and

We are heading for a MAJOR confluence of events - Y2K
coincident with a substantial economic downturn, Japanese
banks, Russian default and political situation, explosion of
biotech payoffs, free cold fusion power, and it's ALL going to
be fueled by 2% money for the Federal Reserve.

I used to call this "the Train". Like, if you lived long enough,
you might be able to hitch a ride on the train when it pulled
out from the station. I didn't think it would be this soon, though.

Un-freeking-believable. This is going to be one HELL of wild

Charles Keeling
(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:28 - ID#344225)
@ OLD GOLD RE: Walter Crimini
Seems like more and more analyst are jumping onto these
clues of "market rigging" going on in the POG.

It has been obvious for some while. I can only hope that
after the mid term elections there will no longer be a
reason to hold the POG doown for political reasons.

Surely everyone sees that WJC looks at the Wall Street
bubble as his one saving grace. Those who are long this
market look to WJC, RR & AG to save their bacon. He gives
us a "bubble economy" with all the inflation parked in
equities and we ( the baby boomers ) will give him our vote
regardless of hom many laws that he may have violated.

Both RR & AG owe WJC for their jobs. He looks to them to
"buy those futures" in times of need to put off the inevitable
until after the mid terms. AFTER ALL, more Republicans in
the house or the senate will work to his detriment.

This is one American who has absolutely no ethics, and he
is predisposed to "lean heavy" on underlings to do what is
right for him without regard for the country.

Will the voters wake up at mid term? He needs a strong
message from the American voters. I lay the blame for the
market interventation that has occured during this last year
directly at the feet of WJC.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:34 - ID#219363)
What does he want ? The road to wisdom is definitely a twisty one. Best thing I think anybody can do for their kids is just leave them be, they'll eventually figure out what they want to do, and when they do that, BAM!, ain't no stop'n em. Most 18 year-olds don't know what they want and my limited experience has shown that they flip around and do different things until they figure it out. If they do know what they want, it's probably what their parents want for them, and they'll eventually get bored with it and end up doing what they want anyway. If I had it to do over again I would have spent a few years wandering around the country or something instead of worrying about what I was going to do when I grew up *grin*. Since I didn't do that, I ended up doing it later. College prof's who are honest will tell you they don't like teaching kids as much as the adults who come back to school because the adults are there to learn something, and the kids are just goof'n around trying to figure out what they want ( and more often than not, it isn't college ) . I'd take anything Envy had to say with a huge grain of salt since it's real easy to talk about kids when you ain't got none heheha.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 17:53 - ID#43349)
If they all decided to sell, it would cause a rise in interest rates. The Fed would step in as a buyer, if there were no others, in order to maintain rates. Thus would foreign bond paper become domestic cash paper.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:11 - ID#254288)
Charles Keeling

Before making your decision on ( arp.v ) take a close look at Viceroy Resource, ( ) they have two producung mines, sell their au for over $400 and also have an interest, in an Argentina property that looks good.

Viceroy, also has dinaro's in the kitty.

I bother them on occasion about selling their gold hedge. Their top man is a well regarded mine finder.

Their California mine is reaching maturity, but there were some interesections over the years that make me wonder about its demise.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:14 - ID#45173)
...which is the essence of your dollar inflation theory and the reason why gold, as you once said, is the perfect investment. And which makes holding cash dollars about as smart as saving yesterday's newspaper.

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:15 - ID#242328)
Frontloading the Economy with Promises

The Federal Reserve just might pull it off, pals. One of my biggest
problems with lowered interest rates is the de facto creation of
PROMISES more quickly than the ability to SATISFY those promises.

We all wonder how the holders of all those stocks, cash, etc, will
actually collect when money creation is increasing at 10% and goods
& services to meet those promises is increasing 3%.

I used to think that promises and capacity had to grow at the same
rate ( which I still believe ) at roughly the SAME TIME. This biotech
has really got me thinking. If the economy is front-loaded with
promises now that can be REDEEMED, oh, hoho, who's to say
that the current status quo can not be maintained?

How much is a future promise of highly extended life worth? I was
stunned to see that this Geron company had received $100 million
in venture capital. Curently, both I and my brother work for start-up
companies funded by VC.

Both these companies will probably be break-even or profitable next

So, I've been reading up on venture capital lately and I now understand
why so many companies were founded during the 1920s and 1930s.
The rising stock market and consequent lowered real rates of return
is *definitely* pumping investment cash back into startup companies.

The previous issue of _Red Herring_ had a graph that showed the
relationship of stock prices with VC over time. The stock market
boom of the past two years has created a concurrent boom in
VC and VC-backed companies, which I imagine is why both I and
my brother work for 2-year-old companies. : )

Really, really creepy. If the lowered real rates of return in paper assets
is driving real company creation and employment, well, I can imagine
this as an engine that actually drives innovation and change FASTER
than before. And I can imagine the whole creepy dynamicism of
the engine being kept in equilibrium by the Feds.

It really is quite similar to today's software development. Dynamic
creation and allocation of objects on the fly, and subsequent
destruction of them and reallotment of the memory pool. Really
creepy. You could almost term this theoreticall engine of creation
to be polymorphic capital.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:22 - ID#43460)
Who Cares et al re biotech sector
This is one of the other sectors I've been watching ( fundamentals not technicals ) the past few years. I had the good luck to know some of the key guys who mastered one of the automatic DNA sequencing techniques back in the dark ages and another group who discovered the role of antioxidents in metabolism; the whole concept has piqued my interest.

Recently Individual Investor ran a short article on biotech, claiming it was going to take off this year. Well, that is what folks were saying last year and the year before. IMHO its market is still consolidating and maturing. Sure a guy might luck into a good stock every now and then, but how are you going to tell the good ones from the bad ones unless you do fundamental research into stuff they'll never tell because so many of their processes are proprietary and so many patents so easily circumvented?

To paraphrase Mark Twain, a biotech company is a laboratory with a liar standing next to it. ( 8-^ ) ) At least with a gold mine you can go look at the hole in the ground and marvel at the mound of dirt. IMHO

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:25 - ID#252391)
@ george / Advice to an 18 yr old
I'll have one soon. earlier posts mirrored my sentiment - college,generally, for an 18 year old is an extension of the socialization process that was high school. This is outdated thinking. I say go into the military and get socialized.. Not on my dime.

I also agree that the young person's direction must be his or her own. They will find out that options begin with dollars. Two years to get an AA degree at a public college or university in one's own state is a good base, but without technical skills that begin with a high level of computer literacy there's limited market ability for extended college education. Learn to fix Xerox machines, learn to fix jet engines, learn to fix anything higher tech, take night courses to get the BA degree.

When I was young there was time for fooling around - not any more. A young person has to get serious quickly. Work experience right out of highschool or the military will knock off the baby fat and extinquish the idle dreams that society will provide what you want because your parents did.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:26 - ID#411112)
George.....give him a few grand and a round the world air ticket he will learn more about the real

world ....and save you thousands...and as a bonus in ten years he will thank you

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:36 - ID#242328)
Biotech Strategy
I got interested in Biotech in 1992 or so. I realized sometime in
late '93 or early 94 that biotech is more akin to the IS industry than
any other. It is an *information* industry.

Ergo, its rates and pattern of growth are far more likely to look like
a chip or software company than a utility or automobile manufacturer.

This will catch a great many people unaware. True, calls of a break-
out in biotech have been premature, but would you have regretted
buying Microsoft in 1976 instead of 1982?

Personally, I thought seriously about purchasing ICOS in '94. At that
time, I knew that it was funded by Bill Gates and other heavyweights,
that its "un-declared" purpose was aging research, and that it had
fallen to $6 / share. I wish I *had* followed my gut feeling then. It's
around $20 or so now.

It's very close now. The Human Genome project was originally
supposed to be completed in fifteen years ( by 2005 ) . Two of the
original scientists have recently started their own privately-funded
version of the Genome project and project completion within three
years. And this year, another startup has appeared, claiming to
finish a full genome mapping in eighteen months.

Do you see it? The rates of growth are INFORMATIONAL rates
of growth.

Everyone assumes that an anti-aging solution would be expensive.
I believe it will not be. It will require some simple genetic modification
and distribution. Once the *process* is uncovered, implemention will
be cheap and easy. And highly profitable.

This doesn't do much for gold, I guess. We really might be in a
"new economy". It's striking that the Powers-that-be have kept
it running so to date.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:36 - ID#45173)
Agreed. Biotech is still a promise, at least as a business model. I had the chance to invest in a few and due dilligence conferred the news that most biotech companies are VC money laundering operations.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:47 - ID#43460)
Exactly! your human genome project example proves my point!
Biotech doesn't need million dollar machinery and if one guy discovers a process, pouring a million dollars into research the guy next door can do the same thing for ten thousand dollars and undercut him. And its not cryptic, difficult to understand engineering, it is kitchen table science. IMHO

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:47 - ID#242328)
Boom And Bust Idea

Try this analogy on for size. Picture the traditional economy as a
car tire. Or a balloon. Excessive rates of money creation are akin
to pumping air into the balloon. This is your boom.

After too much inflation, the balloon finally gives way and pops. This
is your bust.

They have distinct patterns. Boom - slow, long ramp. Bust - rapid,
violent collapse.

Now imagine that I am Alan Greenspan and I was a balloon maker
in a previous life. How could I prevent a bust that I inherited from
the previous tenant?

I *could* try to make the balloon skin stronger. And the boom would
last longer. I'd still get a bust in the end, unless I slowed money
creation someday.

However - I *could* poke a few holes in the balloon, pray that the
skin doesn't burst.

So instead of one massive collapse with many companies going
bankrupt, I've have an economy that continuously had a few
companies going bankrupt. In fact, my balloon might simultaneously
look like it was booming and busting. I might have a "booming"
economic growth rate and stock market even as record bankruptcies
are being recorded, and major banks are reported huge losses.

Just an idea to toy around with.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:48 - ID#45173)
Who Cares?
I like your enthusiasm. Keep in mind that even in the computer industry, change is ponderously slow. For example, if you are old enough to recall seeing video phones in the movie 2001 back in the 1970s, would you have thought that all these years later, there'd still be no videophones? The devil is in the details, especially the economic ones. Over 90% of the Super Information Highway runs on copper phone lines. Here's a shocker: more than half the world's population has never used a telephone.

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:50 - ID#242328)
Biotech Promises
Look, EJ, I respect your thoughts here, but I really don't think you've
paid close attention if you can characterize biotech as still only
being about promises.

In the past two years, treatments akin to CURES for cystic fibrosis
have been introduced. That is a stunning change. And the biochips
for diagnostic work are being manufactured and used now.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 18:59 - ID#432395)
Could anybody tell me if there are any Canadian Mutual funds, that are
shorting the market? TIA.

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:00 - ID#242328)
Excerpt from Biotech article - Check it out
Gagnrad - exactly. Biotech is informational in nature. I *knew* it was
only a matter of time until it started manifesting itself. Check out this
excerpt from _San Francisco_, Nov 1998

Forever Young, by Kevin Berger

"Once Cech declared the telomarase gene sequence in the pond
critter, his graduate student Toru Nakamura began looking for the
human equivalent. Nakamura logged onto the database of the
Human Genome Project, the $3 billion project launched in 1986
{ I believe this is a minor error in the article, the actual mapping
began around 1990 - WC } by the Department of Energy to
identify all 100,000 genes. While only a fraction of genes have
been fully sequenced, the database contains thousands of gene
snippets called expressed sequence tags ( ESTs ) . Nakamura, to
his delight, found evidence of a human EST to match the gene
in our pond pal. This, finally, was the information that shifted
Geron into overdrive".

This demonstrates EXACTLY what I'm talking about. The growth
of biotech will by synthetic in nature, meaing "synthesis", a growth
greater than the sum of its parts.

Who Cares?
(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:04 - ID#242328)
EJ and rates of growth
Oh, come on, EJ. You have become acclimatized to IS growth rates.
There has *never* been an technical growth rates even close to
what the IS industry has experienced in the past fifteen years. We're
seeing real changes in cpu speed, complexity and software code that
are HUGE, sometimes doubling within two or three years.

The closest historical analogy that *I* know of is the Industrial
Revolution after the Civil War, and it was pretty substantial in
and of itself, but it is far below today's change rate. The best
example I've found is the rate of investment growth for electricity
during the period 1890-1900, an aggregate of 400% for all
electricity-related items.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:10 - ID#43349)
Yesterday's newspaper sometimes has it's uses. Cash dollars do too, for the moment.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:24 - ID#252150)
Sam@I caught Embry on investors-on-line. Did'nt take any notes
but I will relate the few things that I can recall. He blames the puny POG on CB leasing @ such low rates that it makes short selling almost irresistable...surprise not. Did'nt seem super bullish, but because he manages Canada's biggest PM fund, he could'nt seem to appear too bearish.

As for stocks, the host reminded him about his Kinross reco, which has'nt turned out to well. That was before they amalgamated with AMAX. I got the impression that he was'nt super keen on K because of their properies in unstable Countries. He had good things to say about FN & EN. Does'nt particularly like the majors. Instead prefers some mid-caps. The 2 main ones I can recall are Meridian & River Gold. I think I will take a look at River Gold because it is supposed to have low cost mines in N. Ont. Much safer that Russia.

Hope this helps.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:25 - ID#343449) the man!

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:25 - ID#43349)
@Who Cares? ,EJ
Technology growth is exponential. It may take several million years to develop the stone hammer, but once it is invented all the technology for working in stone is available plus the hammer itself to develop the stone axe.

New tchnologies also interact in often unforseen ways to create whole new fileds of endeavor almost overnight.

Ask the layman what the future will be like and he predicts something like the world he grew up with perhaps somewhat better toys. Bigger TV's, faster cars, etc.

Ask the scientist or engineer what the future will be like and he prdedicts the world will continue to change but at a rate about the same as he sees in the lab today. New technology a decade from now, perhaps tourist flights to orbit the earth in a hundred years ( not counting Glenn of course ) .

Ask the science fiction writer and you begin to get some more creative visions of what might come to be in the centuries to come.

Look at real life trend curves, though, and you see they are exponential and asymptotic. The future will be upon us faster and bigger than life before anyone realizes.

Not too many years ago the transistor was a curiosity and the laser an interesting laboratory toy with few real uses seen in the forseeable future.

Today a light beam is teleported across a laboratory test bench, the genome project is nearing usefullness, the "net" is interconnecting the individuals, the neurons, of this planet earth.

Faster, ever faster.

The cosmos is at hand.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:30 - ID#277224)
There was an earlier request for info on Embry's scheduled
appearance on TV this afternoon.Have not seen any replies
about same.Just to repeat a call for anyones take on the
interview or maybe it was not particularly definitive or

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:32 - ID#343449)

others know....the game...
read on........

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:32 - ID#43349)
Perhaps in 2001 there WILL be videophones, at least net based if not telco based.

On the otherhand, watching 2001 would we have forseem the internet, widespread home computer usage, or viagra?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:40 - ID#43349)

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:40 - ID#343449)

you can get the device you speak of, hook it
to the pewter and send audio/video for less
than $200. total set-up........easy to use...
captures clips....editable....etc... ld charges either....yar.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:41 - ID#43349)
Yep. ( I was kind of pulling EJ's leg a little )

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:41 - ID#343449)

hear it from their own mouth.......

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:43 - ID#343449)

a flash from the past from our friends at golden eagle

japan.....who says you can't predict the future?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:44 - ID#186147)
Get rich quick?
During my regular weekend lurk of kitco this evening, I was taken aback by gianni dioro's 13:59 post. You guys been trying for years to find the "holy grail", and there it is. All you gotta do is get g.d. to give you those signals, and you'll be able to buy an island-----a BIG island, like, maybe Manhattan----in about 6 months. To call intermediate swings in the spoos with a margin of error averaging less than half a percent is the ticket to El Dorado, for sure. I'd pay BIG bucks for signals with TWICE as big a margin of error. To be held in escrow, pending the outcome of the signal, of course.: ) If he can keep that string going til next spring, I could make a couple hundred billion $$ trading the signals.........maybe more.........

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:45 - ID#343449)

report from the us house of represenatives written
over a year ago....their opinion of when/where the
middle east war will begin....

those whose knowse........

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:48 - ID#43349)
Need a little more brainpower?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:48 - ID#343449)

the persian gulf.......more truth than you can believe...

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:50 - ID#343449)

what is/was the ussr? what is it now??
almost time to rumble.....

these posted again.....and again.......and again....

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:51 - ID#45173)
Gollum: Future visions
"Mood" drugs like Viagra were predicted in the 1930s. Networks that connect everyone were envisioned in the 1940s. In fact, most everything that exists now was predicted, minus a lot. No, not the exact machine ( e.g., PC ) , but how is the science fiction writer's imagination to build such a machine. Much of the vision has taken much more time and is available to far fewer people than the utopion vision conceived. On one hand, if you send my 1997 M3 back in time to 1963, they do not even understand the paint or the tires, let alone the computer that controls the fuel injection. But they'd be just as amazed that the advanced society that produced the machine left so much of humanity with too little to eat.

Making machines is easy.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:55 - ID#43349)
True, and many things envisioned never came to pass. Also many have already been here for years even though it was thought they might not happen for a century or more.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:56 - ID#43349)
Reminds me of the end of '29 and first part of '30

(Sat Oct 31 1998 19:58 - ID#252150)
Mole@I have to take exception with your 14:17 in which you stated
that the U.S. has the most resources & the best educated workforce.

If you are talking about natural resouces, then you are way off base.
If I'm not mistaken you have to import over 50% of the oil you consume.
Even AU in which you rank 2 or 3rd, Canadian Cos own a large % of the best properies.

As for education. You have to be joking. While your best Universities rank very high @ the top 20% of your workforce is indeed very well educated, a large % of your high school grads are functionally illiterate. Any stats that I have ever seen has the U.S. ranked quite low scholastically, especially in the sciences. That fact could be the Achilles heel of your economy. Even though you lead the world in computers & IT you are becoming more & more reliant on hiring grads form foreign Countries, especially Canada. Another reason that it's in the interest of the USG to keep our Cdn$ so low. Easier to entice our better educated & brightest to accept the highly technical & high paying jobs that can't be filled by American workers.

I'm remided of when I served with NATO in W. Germany in the early 80s. They had an annual tank competition & around 81 the U.S. Army took delivery of a new tank that had the latest in technology eg laser sights, etc. To make a long story short the competition was won by the Germans in a tank that had'nt really changed since WW2 and the U.S. finished well back. Although I was in the Cdn Air Force, I was curious about this & from what I could gather, the U.S. Army just did'nt have personell well enough educated to be able to master the technology.

I don't think your education system has improved since then & may even have deteriorated.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:03 - ID#252391)
To save you pulling up the URL Gollum references below here is the gossip tid bit from Drudge. Will be on TV tonight - Hillary tell us it isn't true!!!! Come on television and tell us you never had sex with that man.

Speaking of Men - OLDMAN - i'm with you I want some of those investment results your spoke of in your last post. I mean even if he doesn't hit the numbers right on the nose and is a month early what great calls.

It s intersting to me - basic comment from analysts - the market is ging lower but it might go a little higher frist. In the metals case: its higher but maybe lower first.

I don't like the metal charts. The Bollinger bands are contracting. If the dollar doesn't drop oversees prior to Monday's opening and if oil is off more that 10 cents I think its break down time.

Oh but lets read about Hillary - we american must take such perverse interest in this stuff because of our puritanical backgrounds and the remnants of the Victorian era.

SAT OCT 31, 1998 01:55:33 UTC


Former Little Rock state trooper L.D. BROWN, who guarded then Gov. Bill
Clinton for 7 years, reveals in his first nationally televised interview
that First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton strayed from her marriage as well.

Brown told FOX NEWS CHANNEL's DRUDGE on Saturday evening that Hillary
Clinton confided to him that she felt the need to get certain things
outside of her marriage.

Brown detailed for the first time conversations he had with Mrs. Clinton
involving the nature of her relationship with the late Vince Foster.

Brown said Hillary Clinton's relationship with Foster was of a sexual

The interview is set to air at 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT Saturday and Sunday on

Brown felt the need to go public, he told this reporter, because
Independent Counsel Ken Starr and Special prosecutor Robert Fiske failed to
investigate the late Foster's intimate relationship with the First Lady and
the role it may have played in his death.

"The truth has to be told now," Brown declared. "There has been too much

Brown also charged that Bill Clinton's private lawyer David Kendall
personally intervened to block an explosive interview that Brown gave to

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:07 - ID#43349)
Speaking of oil...I see Iraq is being feisty again and even at the moment the security council has gone into emergency session.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:07 - ID#424394)
EJ - Much of humanity will always have too little to eat
As long as there are peoples who live to the edge of subsistence and use additional food to produce more children. We send food assistance, they make more children until they all are near starvation again, then we send more food assistance.
Only when peoples develop other priorities in life, like professional careers and conversing on Kitco will they, as for some in developed "post-industrial" countries does their reproduction rate drop to ZPG and below. Then they do have more than enough to eat and to spend on things like computers, ninetendo, vcrs, lottery tickets, potato chips and frozen "diet" dinners ( this last being the ironic contradiction of spending money to eat fewer calories - a problem that subsistence living does not present ) .

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:11 - ID#43349)
Security Council

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:13 - ID#43349)
Gold for dollars

Charles Keeling
(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:15 - ID#344225)
@ Who Cares RE: Your AG ANALOGY
I loved it. It was great.

Problem is, AG is OLD. He has a new wife who takes
all of his attention. Also, he is growing tired and senile.

When all that blood rushes to his head, in order to
satisfy his new bride, he can no longer think.

RETIREMENT is soooon. He cares not about the future, for
soon he will be gone. All around him he sees those who
feather their nests at the expense of the unseen taxpayer.
Is this the way? He has pondered this subject as he has watched
our boy wonder do his magic on the hill.

Aren't all of our public servants in revolt? Why whould
he be different in his final years? WHO SAYS we are here
to serve and protect. Perhaps we are here, as Bill & Hillary
suggest, to manage and manipulate. How have I been wrong
for all of these years; he thinks.

AG, now married, has changed his direction. We have no heroes
on Capitol Hill. Instead, we have people marking time while
knowing that the debt incurred by years of malfeasance will
be the death knell for them all.

IMHO the Gold Carry Trade will be to the USA what the Yen Carry
Trade was to the Japanese.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:22 - ID#43349)
See if you can spot the ominous paragraph
Hint: it has the word "Fed in it.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:22 - ID#43460)
Who Cares
The sort of information they are selling is like sand in the desert, ubiquitous.

IMHO the people who will end up on top of the biotech market are the ones who never advertise what they're doing. Some of the big powerhouse drug companies like Lilly or Zeneca who have ledger sheets the size of some third world countries are working on the same things as the little guys and their pockets are so deep and their biochemists so proficient that there is no way the little guys can release real information which would put a real value on their stocks. Anybody who knows enough about a process to make a rational decision can go behind them and use an alternative process to bypass their patents.

So either you buy a pig in a poke or you buy one of the giants whos biotech risk is a drop in their corporate bucket. IMHO biotech's recent dull market, I think, doesn't yet adequately reflect the product. I'd say in the end its going to be more like the restaurant business; all you need to start is a hot dog cart and a corner, but to thrive you have to be a really good businessman.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:26 - ID#401460)
News Slowdown?

20 Hours of International News?


(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:27 - ID#252391)
Thanks for the Iraqi update. What are they doing - haven't caught the news....$14.51 would get the oil market moving. Key reversal yesterday. Lowest prices of the week early followed by a rally to the best close of the week.

I ought to look back, but i think the odds, based on the recent past, for up metal prices on Monday's is less than 1 in 5.

Liked the Yardini quote from your last reference.

... the prospect that a slowdown might soon be playing in the United States -- the world's biggest economy is still not catching the eyes of investors.

"This is a very dangerous market," Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank, said. "Too many things in the world have not been fixed and this flurry of buying in stocks could be a setup for creating a false sense of confidence that the worst is over."

Yardeni is betting the Dow will tumble to 6,400 in the second quarter of next year. "It is likely to go even lower by the end of 1999," he said.

Oh come on now....

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:37 - ID#43349)
More Iraq stuff

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:39 - ID#252391)
IRAQ tells UN where to get off
I like this the defeated telling the victors how the later will enforce the peace- only in American

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:43 - ID#411259)
..... Oak .....

The Kruggerrands usually sell at a discount to other bullion coins, not for any political reason, but because they are not pure gold. Investors prefer the .9999 type they get when buying Leafs or Phillies. The American Eagle is also alloyed, but it has the advantage of being American, which tends to sell well throughout the world. Someone asked about the older .999 coins and newer .9999 coins a few days ago. This is a function of better testing and calibration equipment, and not necessarily a result of improved refining. You said the guy paid $7 over spot for Kruggerrands? Tell him to call me, I would love to talk to a guy that will pay at least $6 over anyone else on earth for the metal, particularly a coin that is at the bottom of the demand heap. The man reached in his pocket, and gave you free money. We used to pay about $6 under spot for the KR, while the other bullion coins were about a dollar over spot. The bid price on the KR has risen to spot, but that is because of the general tightness in gold coin inventories, rather than any demand for the coin.

You made some mention of taxability, perhaps you misunderstood the original post, which you said you did not save. The issue is reportability, not taxability. Leafs and Kruggerrands are reportable. This means the whenever you sell them, the buyer is required to take your SSN and report the sale to the IRS. This reporting requirement is not an option, it is law. If your dealer does not know of this law, I would seek out a new dealer, because he is not aware of the most basic requirements of a gold transaction. There are no reporting requirements when you ( the customer ) buys. Did the fellow take your SNN when you made the KR sale back to him? If so, this sale will be reported to the IRS. If not, the guy should be run out of business. For not knowing the business.

The part that really struck me in your post was the dealer laughing at the shortage, nay complete non-availability, of platinum coins. The US Mint has zero, nor do they even have the planchets to make up new coins. This is a fact. More than 2 tons of Platinum Eagles have been sold into the marketplace in the last couple-o-months. The Eagles are gone, this is a fact. That your dealer may not know this is easily understood. Platinum is a more sophisticated metal than gold or silver. Most dealers know not a wit about the noblest of metals. Ask this fellow how much platinum he sells, and how much he is asked for. Then ask him how much he wants for 100 Platinum Eagles. Then watch him scramble and backtrack, as these are not to be found anywhere.

In the last few days, I turned down clients seeking better than 1200 ounces of Platinum Eagles. They are not to be had, anywhere, at any price. If you are lucky enough to find a dealer with a few in stock who does not know of the scarcity, snap 'em up. We did get a special order of 1000 Platinum Leafs in Friday, but they will be gone by end of business Monday. When the US Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint, tell their biggest customer that they can ship zero coins to meet our needs, the shortage exists and is real.

You tax info was correct. Orders of $1,000 or more have no sales tax.


(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:43 - ID#252150)
Jims@Hope you are right about your metals forecast for Mon.
I shorted PDG on Fri. It will depend on gains the upper hand in the USD/JY.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:45 - ID#43349)
Meanwhile, back in Iran....

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:46 - ID#286249)
EJ & Gollum [19:51 & 19:55]--Value

All sciences are now under the obligation to prepare the ground for the future task of the philosopher, which is to solve the problem of value, to determine the true hierarchy of values.
"The Genealogy of Morals, First Essay"

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:48 - ID#43349)
Away for a while...
I'll be back later.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 20:54 - ID#43349)
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle maintenance comes to mind when I hear such a conundrum as hierarchy of values.

Quality, value, beauty, evil, heroism, each must choose his own form of maya.

And now away....

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:00 - ID#424394)
James, your 19:58 is right on!
Our economy is being strangled by poor education. People whine about manufacturing moving out of country. Bonehead manufacturing is moving to where idiots don't demand $15 an hour or even $5/hour. They can find low tech labor elsewhere. Even mid-tech labor is hard to find here. The last twenty years of graduates are nearly illiterate, ilnumerate and don't care that they are AND that their kids are worse. The rest of learning has suffered too - poor to non-existent knowledge in geography, science, civics/political science, history, economics, etc. etc.
No wonder we get the miserable local, state and national governments we have been "electing". The idiots are in charge of the nuthouse!

But we educated, intelligent denizens of the net may not notice this as much since we are likely in the top few percent. We see through government and understand economics and many other topics. But we are outnumbered and it is getting worse. The idiots are having more idiot kids taught by ignorant teachers ( not their fault they had social marxists for professors in education school ) . The brighter of us are having few to no kids. Since I graduated in 1970 our schools have been turning out ever dumber students by growing numbers. Increasing immigration of those who don't value learning hurts us too and both the native and immigrant kids and parents who don't care about learning make it even harder for those kids and parents who do.
Just herd us all along and keep us stupid - as in "1984".

Charles Keeling
(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:01 - ID#344225)
@ gollum
Are you finally away with all of that off
subject claptrap? Good. Tkae those
submarines, airplanes & motorcycles and buzz...

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:04 - ID#252150)
John D.@Your 15:50 about Japan possibly coming out of their recession
squares with todays Donald Coxe column in the Globe & Mail. I've followed him for several years & his analysis of economics ( micro & macro ) has been very good. He feels that the U.S. is entering a period of decline & Japan may be the best equity mkt bet. I can't think of anything financially scarier than investing in Japan right now, so maybe that's the thing to do.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:06 - ID#424394)
Virus alert just in from my e-mail
Someone is sending out a very desirable screen-saver, the Budweiser Frogs BUDDYLST.ZIP. If you download it, you will lose everything on your hard drive. It will crash and someone from the Internet will get
your screen name and password!

This is a new, very malicious virus and not many people know about it. This information was announced yesterday morning from MICROSOFT. Please share it with everyone that might access the Internet. Once again, pass this along to EVERYONE in your address book so that this may be stopped.

Also do not open or even look at any mail that says RETURNED OR UNABLE TO DELIVER . This virus will attach itself to your computer components and render them useless. Immediately delete mail items that say this.
AOL America Online has said that this is a very dangerous virus and that there is NO remedy for it at this time. Please practice precautionary measures and forward this to all your on-line friends...ASAP

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:18 - ID#249409)
gibbous - CDN bear mutual fund
Not proclaiming to keep track of all the CDN mutual fund selections, but I am aware that the Cundill funds ( Intl and Cdn ) hold S&P puts and silver futures ( they tend to sell over priced items - like S&P and last year the Hong Kong Index - and buy undervalued items like silver and some badly beaten down stocks ) You could do a web search on Cundill to find their webpage for more info.

Good luck

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:50 - ID#167133)
Grizz - No offense.... You are the virus
Go here:

(Sat Oct 31 1998 21:50 - ID#252150)
Grizz@You mention that the brighter of us are having fewer to no kids.
I certainly would'nt consider myself among the brighter that you refer to. I had 2 kids when I was quite young, in my first marriage, probably because the economy was better & we all felt more prosperous. But if I were starting over today I doubt very much that I would be starting a family at 24. However, I've noticed over the last several decades, that the only people having many kids are the really rich, the Kennedy's were a great example & the very poor, because of welfare. Although, with your new welfare legislation there will no longer be the incentives for the women on welfare to breed like rabbits.

It's true about the U.S.'s deplorable level of education.

I've been reading lately about the Roman Empire & there are definitely many similarities with the U.S.
Debasement of your currency in an attempt to live way beyond your means is the main similarity that will cause your society to unravel. The USG, with their attack dog hedge funds led by Sorrows has reduced the standard of living for 100s of millions of people in order to artificially prop up yours. The Euro will be the beginning of the end for U.S, hegemony. But I would'nt be surprised if the U.S, resorts to desperate measures, including war to try to prevent the USD from losing reserve currency status.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:01 - ID#433172)
EJ Envy Robnoel Jims
Thanks for your comment, this question is basic but doesn't have an easy answer. Time will provide results for him as it did for us. I wouldn't mind being 18 again, problems yeah, but the FUN to be had. He has a singular gift or curse depending on how it's viewed in that he is one of those people who pursues his interest exhaustively. His single-mindedness is disquieting but he can go a far piece in one direction in short order. Named him Robroy after the Scotish bandit, he's well named.

Talking abnout God and time and lines and such, I have one for you... I wa s sitting on a warm rock dozing in the sun and a large gray cloud went by out of which came a voice, " I'm not time centered " it said. It made no claims and just went right on, made sense tho?.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:02 - ID#35757)
Sad, but a great extent true. Would you mind divulging your nationality. I am interested in seeing how the world sees us ( US ) .

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:16 - ID#300202)
Canadian Nationality wud not properly answer ur question-bottom line-we r too fractured. British Columbia vs Prairies vs Ontario vs P.Q. vs Atlantic Canada-simplistic answer. Atlantic Canada united by identity but not by politics.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:19 - ID#411149)
For undated info on DRD or DROOY depending which exchange go here-
- post golden-eagle's URL
mentioning that the "en" in the word "golden" must be deleted before
posting to the Internet.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:20 - ID#300202)
Wanna know the truth-I look upon individuals & not the nation-but the general overview of Americans wud not be good-in a lighthearted way.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:20 - ID#35757)
Good for you. It is my fervent hope that the same happens here. State's rights! Our federal government was never meant to be Lord and Master, merely an agent to see to common needs.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:23 - ID#300202)
I think we r only united when we meet in a foreign countree- r u from Canada?? Again-personally-I look at individuals-GOLBOAL VILLAGE?????
Hate that phrase.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:27 - ID#35757)
Of course, individuals are unique. That does not mean however that gerealizations are worthless. I know that when I watch the TV that I am being brainwahed. I want input from other sources. Long live the net. They haven't figured how to control it....yet.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:27 - ID#300202)
I think heroes have shaped ur identity more than us. Not meant to offend.
Am talkin Hollywood-John Wayne etc.-don't need to elaborate.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:30 - ID#300202)
One more thought moribus-fore I go to bed
Our politicians wud mirror a pro American politico situation.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:31 - ID#25490)
Bats? Whu? What bats?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:32 - ID#35757)
I am wasted myself. Later.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:35 - ID#252150)
Morbius@I'm Canadian. Almost ashamed to admit it with yahoos like Caper
spelling would "wud". Ah, but I guess I miss the point. He's using a form of shorthand, but I wonder if he realizes how silly it looks?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:38 - ID#300202)
Gone to bed
As I talk to u moribus-u cud be my neighbour-& u r. No barriers-fellow human-don't see no stars/stripes/Canuck flag/Dominican baseball players-Yada/Yada/Yada ( heard this on Seinfeld ) -don't use this phraseology here. Nite all. goolum knows how to handle attackers with TAO.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:38 - ID#423380)
@jtaher--Thanks For The Info.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:43 - ID#43349)
@Charles Keeling
Well, I'm back.

Why so bitter?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:47 - ID#300202)
U do not have to feel silly for me. I'm fully capable of feelin for myself. Plse elaborate. this ( or dis-in Cape Breton venacular ) is my manner of expression ) wud u care to deny me this?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:51 - ID#105135)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Six Year
120 market days
30 market days
10 days Hourly
Overhead Resistance

FDPMX & FSAGX are First & Second on the 60 & 90
day regression table.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:53 - ID#300202)
Plse ( Excuse me ) -if u lived within the Province of Nfld for awhile u wud learn proper English-the way it was originally spoken. Newfies wud sound like Jefferson/Washington-in days of old-got the impression of arrogance in ur cyber words-but I think I'm over reactin' vs reacting.

Trying to do better massa.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:55 - ID#240241)
You have me confused. The largest & oldest dealer in Houston, TX is a
crook? All I can tell you again is I bought the Krugs for $291, $9 over
spot. I sold them today for $300 even. I have a receipt that I signed.
He verifed my drivers license. Are you also saying that the law you
claim is real applies to every state? I freely admit I don't know.
Just that I have receipts with no taxes added & have never given my
ssn. I also thought it was you that said there was a problem getting
platinum coins. Or was it someone elsse?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:55 - ID#300202)
Plse explain proper meaing of yahoos. Looked it up-cant vs can't find it

(Sat Oct 31 1998 22:57 - ID#300202)
Don't tak vs talk to me thru ( vs through ) moribus. Talk at me direct a hole vs......

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:00 - ID#343259)
@aurator Re:Bats
Hint: Look at the Banner heading of this page.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:02 - ID#252150)
Caper@Cape Breton will always have a soft spot in my heart as my son
was born there. I was way off base with my derogatory post & apologize.
I'm having a few beers, but unfortunately am probably not in as good a mood as you.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:08 - ID#240241)
oops, sorry, started replying before I finished reading the rest of your
post to me. He told me he could get me all I wanted. But you might be
right, maybe he doesn't sell that many. He said he had some other then
the ones in the display case. He had 5 people working the counters & the
place is always crowded on Saturdays. It also resides in one of the
wealthier sections of the city. So if hes doing something illegal, then
apparentlly no one cares.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:08 - ID#25490)
Can do in a Canoe?
Bats in the Belfry! Thanks.

What's up with the Canucks tonite? Noone's even mentioned Quebec. Sure hope you can all canoodle in a canoe, like I heard true Canucks can. ( and do )


(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:08 - ID#43349)
Dollar expected to fall

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:10 - ID#300202)
Accepted-Just my way of writing.
Nite all-never been to BC James ( Juan de Fuca ) but I can visualize. James-FWIW-served in the Armed forces also-took train' in St Jean-onto Clinton
for electronics - then onto OCTP in Barrie.

Fran's callin'

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:11 - ID#43349)
South Korea up

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:14 - ID#252150)
Caper@Went through St. Jean in 63
after getting out of RCN. Ended up as a meteorological tech. Now can barely spell it.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:16 - ID#34883)
Hayek/The Use of Knowledge in Society

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:22 - ID#167133)
@George 22:01 I've looked at clouds from both sides now.....
Oh. Time!

Your cloud was probably trying to make a point George. Peoples concept of time is screwed up by watching too much Star Trek with the "time-travel" mumbo-jumbo. That and clocks that seem to have no beginning or end ( until they die of course, but that is readily ignored. ) Time as it is viewed by most people, simply does not exist.

Do you know how a second is measured? Via the vibrations of microwaved Cesium atoms ( ) . Now lets drop the word "time" for awhile .

What allows the atoms in Cesium to vibrate? Space ( in which to move ) and Energy ( propulsion ) . "How long" ( as in "How long till dinner? ) it takes to get there is a measurement of _distance._ Now look at a sundial. What is being determined is the distance a shadow has traversed . How _long_ is a day? The clock on the wall or desk or your wrist seems to have continuity, as though it measures something that has reality beyond space and energy, however, it also is only telling you how far the quartz has vibrated ( or whatever else has unwound.. )

Now someone may say: "Nonsense, when I drive my car, Im going a certain number of miles per hour. So that hour must be a thing that can be measured." I submit that hour is but a numbered collection of vibrations of the Cesium atom and not an external, unpalpable reality. It is simply the distance of your movement counted against the distance of the atoms movement.

Now someone else may say: "Well then, if what were measuring is distance, then I should be able to turn around and go back to a place in the past." Depending on scale, this is partially true. If you walk across a room and come back, time can seem to have been reversed. However while you did this, a bird jumped from your windowsill and flew off, your kids ran down the stairs just outside the door, the earth has traversed a measure of space around the sun whilst the sun flew through the Milky Way and our universe has passed through the void further toward its destination. Thus to actually get back to the place you were before you first walked across the room, all the energy that has been unwound and all the distance covered wound have to be thrown into reverse and rewound to get back to the PLACE IN TIME you had been before. ( Which is of course impossible! )

The reason this is important is that people spend so much time and effort and worry on something that does not exist anymore ( the Past ) and something that has NEVER existed ( the Future. ) While forgetting that all there really is, is NOW. The same NOW that existed when God said: "LIGHT..BE!" The same NOW that is here with us. The same NOW to be present at the day of judgment.

Take your time, think about.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:23 - ID#433172)
Psychic game
It takes two coins to do it, I use a Pt Mapleleaf, and a gold Mapleleaf. Place one of the coins in someone else's hand and see if they can guess if it's gold or Pt, and vice-versa. The point being wether or not a person can tell the difference without looking.

The coins are very similar, about 1% difference in density. Interesting experiment since how often do we get 2 elements in such similar packages? My wife and I score well beyond chance, how do you do?

Midaswell- CNI came thru just fine as you said they would.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:25 - ID#43349)
From the bull pen

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:28 - ID#390337)
@grizz Sorry dude, you've been gulliblized
Check out these sites to relieve your bud-wie-zer.

Department of Energy Computer Incident
Advisory Capability at

Symantec Anti Virus Research Center at

McAfee Associates Virus Hoax List at

Dr. Solomons Hoax Page at

The Urban Legends Web Site at

Urban Legends Reference Pages at

Datafellows Hoax Warnings at

Those people who are still symptom free can
help inoculate themselves against the
Gullibility Virus by reading some good
material on evaluating sources, such as

Evaluating Internet Research Sources at

Evaluation of Information Sources at

Bibliography on Evaluating Internet Resources

Lastly, as a public service, Internet users
can help stamp out the Gullibility Virus by
sending copies of this message to anyone who
forwards them a hoax.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:33 - ID#252150)
A little learning is dangerous. If I'd never taken the College Bus Admin program
when I got out of the Forces, I'm sure that I would be a lot better off.
Once I understood what terrible shape that the the world economy was in in 84, with deficts & the huge debts, I was never comfortable in equities. I was sure that there would be a global collapse & 87 seemed to be it. The crazy thing is that I sold a lot of Mutual Funds before 87 & many of the people that stayed in them after I got out of the business are a lot better off than me. I kept waiting for the collapse & am still waiting. Like waiting for Godot.

Nocte Volens
(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:34 - ID#390135)
It finally works. :0

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:37 - ID#343259)
@copperfoot @George Time
Well, it is the weekend, and some reprieve from the off-topic-police would seem in order, so here goes..

I have had an interesting perspective on time, since I had a "near-death" experience. The experience was electrocution.

An arm-to-arm path. It was over in a microsecond, according to witnesses who saw me picked up as if by an invisible hand, and thrown back in the air about 10 feet, where I hit my head on a pool table, and was knocked unconscious. I had no recollection of any of that. However, what I did have a recollection of was that the moment seemed to last for a LONG time. I was aware of the electricty coming up my arm, passing through my heart, and down the other arm. I wanted to let go of the metal, but I couldn't force myself to do anything. The muscles wouldn't work.

I had the thought during that time ( which seemed like 5 minutes ) that "Huh! there really isn't any time". It was as if time was like rubber and it just stretched to timelessness.". So I can well imagine that what you say is somehow true, that time does not exist.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:37 - ID#433143)
hrmm look at and get yourself prepared. heh these virus are WORSE than y2k! ;0

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:44 - ID#284255)
Saddam buying puts again?
Is Saddam confirming the swing crossover.

How many other times has he rattled his sabres when the markets are ready to turn downhill?
Isn't this how he funds his army?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:47 - ID#277224)
Good article on the projection of the dollar declining
next week.Brazil certainly is in dire straits,with a
60 billion dollar deficit.When their reform program
kicks in to cut gov. programs and increase taxes to
this magnitude their economy will invariably hit the skids.
A number of other good points made in the article.
Good to see that you are with the program.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:52 - ID#343449)!!!!!!!!!!!!!...........don'


saddam is just one of the reasons i'm buying crude calls...
going to 10bbl my @ss........chaos and flux are driving
the 'hellbound train' --savoy brown..
a little faster than what mike sheller sees it going........
the east on fire shortly.....what're we gonna do,
bomb everybody.....?

the bats are on the header....along with images of rolling rock
pale ale.......


(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:53 - ID#284255)
Project Abacus>

Then check out Operation Gold Sword IV

From FaxGram

Lots of hype on these issues?

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:55 - ID#433172)
The voice was angry, I forgot to mention, or rather impatient, like whatever question I was posing had been posed many times before.

We view time as linear, for example. Two cylinders with sand between, a dark line of sand, black sand from one cylinder to the rotate the outside cylinder until the black sand disappears. Invisable. The order still exsists, not coherently, but implied...If the rotation of the outside cylinder is reversed the black line will reappear. We are talking order. Time has something to do with this. This experiment can be replicated.

Do you maintain there is a religion which explains time? Let there be and judgement and all that? It really further complicates the issue without providing any rational light, like my cloud. The upanishads provide the best cosmology I've run into from a religous source. The let there be guy was a tinne wennie.

Time is the substrate of exisitence maybe, at least psychic existence, and there is a lot reason, IMO to belive it is a composite ( everything and anytime which ever existed still does and always will so be careful if you pee on flowers ) I am time centered so I'll hang up.

(Sat Oct 31 1998 23:55 - ID#43349)
In a sense you are right. We think of a thing that can be measured as something that exists. So we think that time exists. We measure it by counting rhe beats of a cesium atom.

In like manner we believe that a foot of length exists. We measure it by counting the marks on a ruler.

We also believe that a triangle exists. We can even denote it's position on the sand by using a stick. The sand exists. The marks exist. The ruler exists. The cesium atom exists.

We believe we exist. We can count the discharges of our neurons, see the location in space our body denotes, percieve the consciousness of our thoughts.

Time is not the cesium atom, length is not the marks on the ruler, the triangle is not the grains of sand, we are not the atoms of our body. If one does not exist then how can any of the others?