Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:03 - ID#333126)
US$/Yen news
Japanese bonds and the Yen

Dollar falls vs. Yen on Brazil worries

Dollar falls vs. Yen on hedge fund worries

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:05 - ID#25490)
you should not seek an answer to a metaphysical question from a lawyer. The law is not concerned with "truth" only with evidence and the body of knowledge called the law.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:19 - ID#333126)
Brazil congress to face problems passing those required reforms

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:21 - ID#153110)
I did not seek there.
The subject arose from words on the flyleaf.

By the by, your comment contains the proposition that Justice has no relation to Truth which I dispute as being patently false. The trouble with people making a living by the Law is they become undmindful, forget, and obscure, intentionally or not, the purpose of it.

And practice constructive fraud on themselves and others.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:26 - ID#252391)
Gold falls, silver falls - I worry
Gosh, if we don't have a world fiancial meltdown d'jour gold can't manage to hold unchanged. I think this weakness is more that manipulation - its lack of interest.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:31 - ID#153110)
@lawyerator @Has Puetz been defrauded ?
By constructive fraud is meant such a contract or act, which, though
not originating in any actual evil design or contrivance to perpetrate a
positive fraud or injury upon other persons, yet, by its tendency to deceive
or mislead. them, or to violate private or public confidence, or to impair
or injure the public interests, is deemed equally reprehensible with
positive fraud, and, therefore, is prohibited by law, as within the same
reason and mischief as contracts and acts done malo animo. Constructive
frauds are such as are either against public policy, in violation of some
special confidence or trust, or operate substantially as a fraud upon
private right's, interests, duties, or intentions of third persons; or
unconscientiously compromise, or injuriously affect, the private interests,
rights or duties of the parties themselves. 1 Story, Eq. ch. 7, Sec. 258 to

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:33 - ID#25490)
Justice may or may not doff her blindfold to "truth."

Any relationship "Justice" ( by which I mean a decision on a question decided by evidence and the law ) and "Truth" is almost accidental. Otherwise, no "innocent" person would be hanged and no "guilty" person would walk free.

Truth, in any event, is determined, imho, not by any objective assessment, but is rather culturally determined.

Am in agreement with your observation on the deadening effect of objective analysis on those who practice law. One reason that I don't practice, that, and the fact that many lawyers are the most difficult people on this planet. A small subset of female lawyers lead the bunch in the race to practice a fraud on themselves.

Are you sure you want to place your liberty in the hands of a lawyer who, by your account, seems somewhat green? Go for the experienced bstard. Glad to see you still around.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:35 - ID#251180)
cannot be proven as any non trivial process cannot be known to reach a given position without actually following the steps to that solution. Turings halting problem holds true for any algorithmically solvable process, so to declare a proposition true requires a leap beyond logic into the metaphysical.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:37 - ID#286230)
A frighening view
Russia's 'lost' luggage could be deadly

Contributing Foreign Editor
Call it the ultimate missing luggage story.
Last year, Gen. Alexander Lebed, Russia's former national security adviser,
claimed more than 100 suitcase-sized nuclear weapons had "disappeared."
Another senior Russian security official, Alexei Yablokov, backed Lebed's
Lebed, now a presidential candidate, asserted Russia's military had lost track of the portable
nuclear weapons, each of which can produce a one-kiloton explosion, equivalent to 1,000 tons
of TNT. A single suitcase nuke, placed in an urban area, could kill up to 100,000 people and
cause enormous physical damage.
Russian security officials scoffed at Lebed's claims, blaming poor record keeping rather than
theft or diversion. American officials claimed Libya, Iraq and Iran were the real nuclear danger,
not mini-nukes. In fact, these nations pose a potential threat only to Israel. By contrast, Russia's
missing nukes are a very real menace to U.S. security.
Two months ago, the highest ranking officer ever to defect from GRU, Russia's military
intelligence service, testified in closed hearings before Congress. The former GRU colonel, who
defected in 1992, said he had personally identified locations in the U.S. for suitcase nuclear
devices that would be used in case of war.
The colonel admitted he had no knowledge any devices had actually been smuggled into the
U.S., but said 'it was possible,' because many of the weapons had disappeared from Russia's
inventory. Meaning the mini-nukes are either missing - and possibly in the hands of terrorists -
or secreted in the U. S., Canada, and Europe.
The Soviet mini-nukes, described as the size of a golf club bag, were designed to destroy vital
targets, such as military command and control centres, air defence headquarters, missile bases,
communications nodes, power stations, bridges, dams, airports and the St. Lawrence Seaway.
If one such weapon, hidden in the back of a delivery van, were detonated outside the
Pentagon, America's military leadership would be decapitated.
The GRU colonel explained the mini-nukes were to be smuggled into the U.S. the same way
drugs were - by speedboat, light aircraft or landed on the coast by Soviet subs. Soviet special
force "Spetsnaz" units would retrieve the weapons and conceal them close to their intended
targets. One key hiding place was Northern Virginia's beautiful Shenandoah Valley, located a
short drive from Washington.
The colonel also revealed that during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the Soviets stockpiled
suitcase nuclear weapons in Cuba without the knowledge of Castro, ready for use by special
forces troops.
KGB sources also recently told me that at the height of the crisis, Soviet commanders in Cuba
were authorized to launch intermediate range ballistic missiles against the U.S. and Canada if
communications links with Moscow were disrupted.
The U.S. also developed a one-kiloton nuclear suitcase bomb designed for the same tactical
demolition role as the Soviet version. If the Warsaw Pact attacked westward, U.S. Special
Forces were tasked to employ the mini-nukes for behind-the-lines sabotage of Soviet
command, logistics and communications. U.S. Army field commanders were given release
authority over hundreds of tactical mini-nukes in Europe, independent of NATO.
Some House Republicans claim the Soviets may have actually hidden a number of nuclear
devices near Washington and New York City, where they remain. Some could still be active.
Such simple, pure-fission nuclear devices may have a shelf-life of up to 8-10 years without
U.S. security officials, who have been nonchalant about hidden suitcase nukes, should bear in
mind the stranger-than-fiction case of a GRU "sleeper" agent who settled in Edmonton in the
late 1940s as a supposed refugee from Ukraine. A decade ago, he turned himself in to the
RCMP, and showed them a large trunk-bomb he had hidden in his basement. His orders: when
a coded signal comes in from GRU, transport the conventional bomb in his truck to a main oil
pumping station north of Edmonton, and destroy it. He had been waiting nearly 40 years.
How many other such sleepers are out there? How many have nuclear devices? This is pretty
scary stuff. Not just for North America, either. Rumours have circulated for years that Israeli
agents may have hidden suitcase nukes in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kiev, Odessa, Sevastopol
and Kharkov, not to mention Arab capitals, Tehran, even Pakistan.
The danger of terrorists getting their hands on a suitcase bomb is real, but lower. Arming the
mini-nukes takes 30 minutes, the colonel revealed, and can only be done by trained specialists.
The weapons are designed to self-destruct if improperly opened.
Unless, of course, terrorists or the Russian mafia manage to buy a nuclear specialist, or open
the weapon's locks. A suitcase nuke attached to a drum of anthrax or botulism would be a
hellish terror weapon, ideal for political fanatics or blackmailers. Defences against such
weapons are currently minimal, though the U.S. is trying to develop sensors that will detect
hidden nuclear weapons.
We shouldn't panic about reds under our beds with suitcase nukes, but we shouldn't ignore this
very real threat, either. Given the number of Soviet suitcase nukes still hidden, or unaccounted
for, it seems probable at least one will eventually be used somewhere.

Eric can be reached by e-mail at
Letters to the editor should be sent to

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:38 - ID#25490)
the lure of the la
Justice may or may not doff her blindfold to "truth."

Any relationship "Justice" ( by which I mean a decision on a question decided by evidence and the law ) and "Truth" is almost accidental. Otherwise, no "innocent" person would be hanged and no "guilty" person would walk free.

Truth, in any event, is determined, imho, not by any objective assessment, but is rather culturally determined.

Am in agreement with your observation on the deadening effect of objective analysis on those who practice law. One reason that I don't practice, that, and the fact that many lawyers are the most difficult people on this planet. A small subset of female lawyers lead the bunch in the race to practice a fraud on themselves.

Are you sure you want to place your liberty in the hands of a lawyer who, by your account, seems somewhat green? Go for the experienced bstard. Glad to see you still around.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:42 - ID#153110)
Strange that, despite your big words, ordinary people can still determine and agree on when two amounts are equal. And name liars.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:46 - ID#284255)
Snipped from the web
Y2k and Galaxy 5 satellite

A man that I personally know which is on the "Year 2000 Team" for a large manufacturing
company that has 8 plants in the U.S. has personally told me many-many things about the
year 2000 situation. None of them sound good.
He just told me today, in person, that there will be a year 2000 test done on Galaxy 5
satellite on this November 17, 1998.
Galaxy 5 satellite runs 40% of the telephone communications, 50% of the television satellite
feeds, and 30% of the communications for the banks. He told me in person that this satellite
is expected to have a 90% chance of total failure and will never communicate again.
He also told me that if a failure does happen, the government will blame this failure on the
Leonid meteor shower, which is to happen on that same day, instead of the real truth that the
year 2000 test caused the failure.
The government has this planned on that date so in case of the failure of Galaxy 5 because
of the year 2000 tests situation, the citizens will never know until it is to late that it really was
the year 2000 problem. They are very worried that if they told the truth that the year 2000
test really caused the failure, the truth would cause a major awakening of the citizens about
year 2000 and that would cause a run on the banks and also would cause massive chaos at
the grocery stores.

With regard to the governments reaction to the Y2K problem, I was told last week by a very
reliable source with connections to Ft. Sill that the military is dispatching 130 specially trained
urban warfare teams to cities where they anticipate having problems, should the worse case
scenarios actually occur.

Interesting to note that one of the GOES sattelites went down last week?

This will be interesting to follow.
Of course it could well be WWW Y2k hype.

We shall watch this together?

Yes, indeedy so.^o-o^

(Mon Nov 02 1998 00:57 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:00 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:01 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:03 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:03 - ID#153110)
Thank you for being welcoming. I'm also glad to still be around. The existence or non-existence of process on me is apparently now a metaphysical question as my investigator has been told process is secret until served.

I was not interviewing with the budding Blackstone ephemera. It was social altogether.

What Think thee the etymology of "verdict" might be ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:04 - ID#35757)
Put some more choices on that list. In general I haven't found Rich's comments to be obnoxious, although the comment in question is certainly boorish. Perhaps we should have an impeachment mechanism, with 2/3 necessary for removal ( if the owner of the site be so kind as to let us have a say in the matter ) .

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:11 - ID#25490)
Hmmmmmm. I have often wondered what the Crsus Post Modernism was. Looks like a half-assed explanation of the mysteries of cause and effect. Still, I guess, it keeps a lot of intellectuals off the streets and earning a wage arguing their mistaken premises.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:12 - ID#35757)
The real advantage of this cite is not the privilege of posting to it. If we really wanted to censure somebody we would deny them the privilege of reading it.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:13 - ID#31868)
aurator, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...this next quote rather intrigues me...
Familiarity breeds contempt. How accurate that is. The reason we hold truth in such respect is because we have so little opportunity to get familiar with it.

Mark Twain

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:14 - ID#33184)
What about an American "3 strikes and you're out" policy? Strike 1 is a 3 day banning, strike 2 is a two-week banning, and strike 3 is annhilation! The decision to invoke a strike should be left in Bart's capable hands as he is providing this forum to the world at large.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:15 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:23 - ID#252391)
With the polls open... it fair to lobby one's point of view.

What about all the dispairaging things said about Clinton, metal bears, central bankers, talking heads, CNBC and the "Cabal".

I take back every negative thing I ever said......including gold's chart look ugly....though it does.....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:23 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:30 - ID#251180)
mozel, Exactly the point
Truth is consensus

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:31 - ID#224230)
cage rattler.....
How about Zero Tolerance - one strike and you're out. Three strikes requires subjective judgements on what actually constitues a slur -

New York's zero tolerance approach is much easier to implement ! And doesn't waste everybody's time keeping count.

Who'll keep score ?

Why we just shoot him !
And make his family pay for the bullet like they do in China.

Strad Master
(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:38 - ID#250297)
My two cents...
MORBIUS: While I agree that the comment by Rich that has resulted in the survey is probably nothing more than crass, childish, and boorish, I feel that sometimes it is a good lesson for people to learn that behaviour has consequenses. ( Most people learn this by the age of 6 or so. Some never do. ) We all agreed to the Netiquette guidelines when we first got a Kitco password. Is it too much to ask that we adhere to those guidelines? Otherwise, what are they for? It isn't hard, especially when one considers that a posting will literally be read by people all throughout the world. Don't get me wrong, I am the first one to advocate free speech and a liberal attitude toward it here at Kitco - remember, I was one of the earliest and most vociferous defenders of RJ's and LGB's right to post - yet if there is no consequence at all to violating the simplest and most basic rules of civility, we may as well go back to the days when Kitco was racked by daily foodfights. BTW, I was lurking this afternoon and was offended by Rich's comment and did what I always do when I read worthless postings... I ignored it. Nevertheless, I applaud Bart's willingness to maintain a minimal modicum of decorum on this site.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:40 - ID#33184)
I had thought of the zero-G force effect, but thought that by providing at least a warning, people may be able to change their ways or be persuaded too by their peers. There would be as much subjectivity involved with either way as a decision would have to be made in any case.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:41 - ID#25490)
Hmmmmmmm Going to a drentist to get my truth pulled ~~~~~Coin Q--
Why, Verdict = I Speak of the Truth, etym Veritas Dictum ( BTW gimme etymology of education :- )

But Veritas to a Roman * Truth to a knight appearing before the Court of Star Chamber, which is when the term fell into English.

Veritas Dictum was also "The Truth of the Word" to the learnd progenitors of the LMS as they illuminated their Leathern Tomes of the Act of the Saints.

That is, a "verdict" is ecclesiastical truth as interpreted by the Kings by the Divine Right of Kings using the Bible as a basis ( law, words of truth ) for the decision when convenient, and forgetting it when it was more expedient to do that.

What is a Godless florin?
Why is it called Godless?
Who done it?

Verdict is not the only word in English that whose meaing has changed from its etymology. The word 'nice' has changed meanings three times throughout 900 years of the written language espoused by the Angles..It used to mean the opposite of "nice"

Heh heh

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:41 - ID#35757)
I hate sarcasm ( except my own ) . If you don't know the author, you don't know how to take it.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:43 - ID#219363)
Saying Justice and Truth are the same thing is like saying that going to the market and a car are the same thing.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:46 - ID#153110)
If truth be consensus, as you say, then forty million Frenchmen cannot be false. But, they were, Cap'n Dreyfus.

If truth be consensus, as you say, then Galileo was a liar. But, he was not.

Truth is the first victim of the idiotology of social and economic planning by the State. Another phrase for Post Modernist Thought is Socialist Thought.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:46 - ID#252150)
Rich survey@I felt that although his post may have been in bad taste,
it was a self-deprecating attempt at humour that fell a litle flat & absolutely no overt racism was intended.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:46 - ID#25490)
But Veritas to a Roman * Truth to a knight appearing

But Veritas to a Roman does not mean Truth to a knight ..

the not equal sign didn't map properly

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:49 - ID#25490)
'Twould be a sad thang if I couldn't call youse fellas merkans. Indeedy.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:52 - ID#266105)

From a Bloomberg link by Ravenfire 00:03

"Tax revenues for the national government will be 6 trillion yen
( $52 billion ) less than the original government projections, and municipal governments will collect 3 trillion yen less, the Asahi newspaper reported, citing the Finance Ministry and Ministry of Home
Affairs. As a result, the combined fiscal deficit for national
and municipal governments will be about 50 trillion yen, or over
10 percent of Japan's gross domestic product."

Let's see, with an $8T GDP, a ten percent deficit in the
U.S. would be an $800B gap or close to half a federal budget.
I think the federal deficit in Brazil is running 7%.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 01:57 - ID#224230)
morbius - sarcasm
What a good point you make. I'd never thought of the limitations of this form of humour in that correctly simple way.

One of the problems with text based "conversations" in the net is that one can't see the face of the person making the comment, too. ; )

FYI - I voted in favour of censure - on the fine balance of the issue - which is not a simplistic one of free speech.

Thank you for your succinct but enlightening comment.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:01 - ID#153110)
Bart, "Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties." John Milton, Areopagitica, 1644

Who ever said Justice and Truth are the same thing ? Not I.

Strad Master
(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:09 - ID#250297)
My third cent...
JAMES: I don't want to belabor this since I think that today many people have become far too thin-skinned with respect to comments made by others. It is possible that, as you wrote, "it was a self-deprecating attempt at humour that fell a litle flat & absolutely no overt racism was intended". ( I'll say! ) Maybe so. Still, it is eminently possible when sitting in front of a keyboard to think IN ADVANCE about the possible impact of one's comments. I reiterate from my last post: it isn't hard to do. No one held a gun to Rich's head to make him decide to post his tasteless, childish, hurtful,and possibly racist comment. He wan't being interviewed by the local paper and a stupid and unintended joke just popped out. He had to think about it, write it down, and decide to push the submit button. When I post something, I think it out beforehand. Mosttimes I edit, modify, and check for spelling errors in what I write before pushing that button that sends it out irretrievably into cyberland.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:11 - ID#284255)
Golly Gosh - Why oh why
What's going on here?

Someone makes an innocuous comment,
To which, who on this board would take offence?

After all the countless hours of wasted space
Filled with fire, angst and brimstone.
I would have thought that this would amount to zero.

After all the pages and pages of verbal garbage
That some thought was necessary.
The vitriolic permutations of rambling idiosyncratic egos
And this minute comment draws fire.

And from whence was that barb shot?
From the very center of all this wasted space.

I cannot comprehend why?
I cannot fathom the response.

But then this seems to be the way.

This saddens me.
This pointing of the finger.
This condemnation.

Morals, codes of ethics
Principles of stature
Belong now in the gutter.

Only in the greatest of nations
Has such behaviour
Become the way of life.

Personally I pity
My heart churns in pain
For the angst that shall be unleashed
When this nation has to stand on its own feet again.

And the day is soon to be here
When brave honest men
With stalwart hearts

Shall be needed
To council and control
This seething mass of sloth.

I pity.
Nuff said.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:12 - ID#251180)
mozel, Truth evolves towards the light
leaving the detritus of yesterdays consensus behind, together with its adherents. They solidify into bureaucrats. As buckminster fuller said "In bueurocracy their is no thinking ... everybody knows what the rules are".
Progress in all things is only accomplished by those willing to step outside the boundaries. For this, and in your upcoming inquisition - I salute you.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:13 - ID#266105)
mozel/post modernism

"If he were writing his parody today, hed surely have been helped by a virtuoso piece of computer programming by Andrew Bulhak of Melbourne: the Postmodernism Generator. Every time you visit it, at, it will spontaneously generate for you, using faultless grammatical principles, a spanking new postmodern discourse, never before seen. I have just been there, and it produced for me a 6,000 word article called "Capitalist ..."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:17 - ID#25490)
If I select
"I don't want to answer this survey"
aren't I answering the survey?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:20 - ID#219363)
Justice and Truth aren't the same thing: It wasn't directed at your comments, but to others, and wasn't even stated that well *grin*, thus the confusion. What I meant to say was-

The Truth just is, it's there. A man has two wives, that's the truth. Justice and the Law haven't anything to do with it except that the process of distributing Justice involves finding the Truth, that is, that a man has taken two wives. The Law has a goal, a purpose, a vision, it moves towards something. If the vision of society is that a man should not have two wives, then the Truth will put him in jail. If the vision of society is that having two wives is okay, then the Truth shall set him free.

Political and religious folks are constantly confusing the Truth with their respective visions. Wars are not fought over Truth, but over the dream of a people.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:23 - ID#153110)
@au*stralian @The banishment of anti-semites
@au* Well spoken. Ave atque vale.

The wicked hath never dwelt in Jerusalem, surely.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:23 - ID#25490)
In a poll such as this, the majority is always wrong. I cast my vote against the majority, and I urge everyone else to also.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:35 - ID#413109)
Is it really necessary
That it be repeated, over and over, are we adults or immature

This site, from the beginning has some basic rules that were
clearly set by its creator- Bart, called Kitco netiquette. I
for one, felt these sort of rules needn't be stated to adults,
but have since found that they were needed.

Now we are voting and discussing pros and cons as to their value,
or need???

Thanks you Bart for having been as open minded and fair with what
jibberish and valuable contributions have been printed. Not everything
we have written has pertained to gold, and naught was said. Why does
it become necessary now to enforce the rules by other means? Simply
because there are those that feel free to say whatever they wish for
whatever purpose. Well this will not be the place to say it!!

For those that are newbies, we have had a lot of fine people leave
this site, and their posts are missed. What the reasons are, I don't
know, but hopefully they will return.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:38 - ID#333126)
when 'they' will intervene

hmmm.... not much further to go, huh?

last time i remember hearing CBs intervening in the US$/Yen trade was when it spiked above 140. hmmmm.........

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:39 - ID#401460)

**World Exclusive**

White House intern Monica Lewinsky told Linda Tripp that President Clinton would cancel dates
with her when he was flared with blisters, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned from multiple sources in and out of government.

"He would tell her to stay away, that he didn't want to see her for sex when he was flared-up," one source with direct knowledge of the Clinton situation reveals.

Any and all references to what Monica Lewinsky was told and possibly saw regarding President
Clinton's health were redacted from public versions of information released with Ken Starr's
impeachment referral.

The shocking detail is one of the best kept secrets on Capitol Hill and could explode during
impeaching hearings.

The White House refuses to comment on any DRUDGE REPORT.

This is realing going to get good over the next couple of days!

Good Night


(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:40 - ID#316193)
A Glimpse of the U.S. Economy From Silicon Valley

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:45 - ID#153110)
@Envy @Visions
Is it not passing strange that Visions are spoken of as guides when scripture records God spoke or wrote ?

There is very little interest in a false message or in the news brought by a known liar. Truth seeking is simply more practical. It is only among the impractical, the idle, and the criminal that truth seeking and telling are denied and disparaged.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 02:46 - ID#284255)
Aurator - Godless Florin
The first English silver florin struck in 1849, called 'graceless' because of the usual Dei Gratia ( 'by the grace of God' ) was omitted, and 'godless because of the omission of FD ( Defender Of The Faith ) .
Some attributed the choloera outbreak of that year to the new florin.
The coinc were called in and the Master of the Mint, Richard Lalor Sheil ( 1791-1851 ) , a ROman Catholic, left the post the following year.

Brewer's is an old friend of Dads.
Plus some other old dusty tomes.

For a rather surprising split definative refer to the entry on the 'Dark Lady'


(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:00 - ID#25490)
Looks like i'm gonna have to ask ahhemmm, even more esoteric questions from even more arcane volumes in my vain attempt to out-fox Pappa Laird.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:02 - ID#257312)
Survey Says...

These folks have been very accurate in their
final pre-election surveys. Or so they say.
Scheduled to have final predictions at noon today. October 30th poll predicts very little change in Senate, House, and Governorships. We shall see.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:12 - ID#219363)
And there-in is the point I was trying to make - what is a false message ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:13 - ID#153110)
I'm disappointed that you did not hazard a decision on the question of whether or not Puetz has been defrauded, independent of the matter of where there is a court of Law to adjudicate it.

I have been wondering whether or not King George III might not have been feigning madness. What is the legal status of the acts of a madman ? Such as, for instance, a treaty ? If one is attroney for a madman, is he also mad ?

The question has been posed as to whether or not Our Government is a Mad Person as exhibited by its behavior of late and, if provably so, what might be the legal status of its acts ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:21 - ID#153110)
I think you have just asked, "What is a Lie ?"

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:29 - ID#219363)
No, when I hear the words "false message" I think of a dream that isn't worthy, and so my question is, what is a false message ? Why is one dream better than another ? Why is one vision foolish, while another is divine ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:35 - ID#25490)
Alea Jacta est.
hazard a decision on the question of whether or not Puetz has been defrauded, independent of the matter of where there is a court of Law to adjudicate it.

Hazard from al zahr, the Arabic word for dice.
Are you asking me to roll the dice for Puetz?

15 months or so ago, I gave a factual, then a mathematical refutation of Mr Puetz' theories. I have given them no thought since then. But I have defended the right of the man to post his brand of analysis. I have only found him respectful towards others. That is one aspect of truth. He is true to himself.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:41 - ID#153110)
Like you, I find more divinity in propositions ( or visions as you put it ) that are more likely to secure my life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. Self-interest is the measure of all propostitions. But, men can be deceived as to where their interest abides.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:48 - ID#153110)
The question was "Has Puetz been defrauded in his DOW puts ?" regardless of the theory upon which he purchased them ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 03:50 - ID#219363)
Thanks Mozel, I think that's a fine dream *smile*, certainly one that the founding fathers of the US shared, and one that many on this forum share as well.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:00 - ID#284255)
Dad's poems -Book I

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:01 - ID#25490)
A casino evening
I do not know whether Peutz bought Dow puts. Assuming he did, he has lost not only some income ( cancelled Newsletter subscriptions ) but also some capital.

Q. Has he been defrauded by the manipulation of the markets?
A. Doubtless.
Q. Has he a remedy?
A. Fat Chance.
Q. What can he do about it?
A. Play in a market in which he is a knowing participant, rather than a dupe.

One really has to ask oneself:
"Do I know who is the mug punter?"
If you don't know who is the mug, you are.

Caveat Emptor actually means They'll rip your face off.

The table is tilted.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:01 - ID#224230)
This conversation is getting too esoteric for me...
Hate to butt in... ( though on topic.... I think.. )

Any recommendations where I might go to ( from sitting here in Thailand ) to place some little 1-2KUS$ gold Aug-Oct99 options bets without the need to stump up US$5000K.

FYI HK Lind-Waldock asked for 13,000US$ in the account !

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:03 - ID#33184)
@sharefin - any further sources regarding Galaxy 5 posting ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:04 - ID#219363)
Options are cash only so you should be able to get them anywhere without having to set up a margin account, I'd call the guy back and make sure he knows what you're talking about because it doesn't sound like he does.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:10 - ID#224230)
Well precisely,

My emailed request to a dude at Lind-Waldock in HongKong was pretty specific :-

"I want to open an account to buy some Options. Specifically a few Calls on Gold and Crude Oil. i.e. limited quantifiable downrisk bets. Margin covering not required."

Reply :-

To opening up a trading account, we require USD 13,000 by TT. Our banker is Hong Kong Bank. Our commission for all U.S. futures and options is USD 35.- per round turn per contract. ( Compare to USD 50 - 80.- R/T for other full commission houses here in Hong Kong ) .


Any suggestions for such simple cash transactions ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:15 - ID#219363)
I dunno, maybe E-trade or one of other online brokers ? That'd be good to because you could move in and out of your position at will and the commissions are cheap. I think they accept credit cards over the phone. I wonder if you can buy options over-the-counter in bearer form ? I bet not, never tried it.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:19 - ID#24135)
straighten up .. rich
To all pollsters ..
I thought rich's comment was stupid, pointless, and
However, to be "offended" was such a silly statement
is even more stupid.
To vote to have him kicked off Kitco for it
smacks of Nazi - ism.

Such a small thing .. such a BIG reaction.

All IMVHO of course.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:19 - ID#25490)
Fly around the galaxy and maybe stop at Mars

Can noone help us with these Galaxy 5 satellites? What data do they channel? Are they private or gobmint? If they get Murred does the increasingly witty Bugal's Loral Stock rise by ANOTHER viagra-induced 40%?

"Galaxy 5" sounds like a SF Magazine of my truthful youth. Who dreams up these dull sobriquets?

Actually, reminds me of the author of the Brewer's Bible, eh E? who named his daughter Gloria God Galaxy Gramophone.

I kid you not

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:27 - ID#39857)
geegee national holiday

gold guru, second coming,skybeau and favorite son are running
in the melb. cup................does anyone have an opinion on which
might win?????...............might as well let my speculative genie
out of the bottle.......

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:27 - ID#153110)
Once upon a time, when the players discovered the tables were tilted, they turned them over and busted up the joint. But, dishonest gamblers feel no imposition by a dishonest table. Products of a culture of fraud.

What say ye of the validity of the acts of a Mad Sovereign according to the Law of Nations ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:27 - ID#25490)
Greetings. I have a good friend in Laos who wishes to buy Gold in Thailand. Are you able to assist him? He goes to Bankgkok frequently, and used to lecture at the Prince Songhla University ( forgive any mistaken spelling ) he is fluent in Thai, Indonesian and a couple of Laotian dialects, but he knows nothing of gold.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:30 - ID#153110)
@BTW I believe in the Moon Walk,
the one performed by Michael Jackson, that is.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:30 - ID#230376)

Gooday from the chilly Midwest....a slight change to lighten up, gents.......found a picture of auracious on the web and thought I'd share it.. did not realize what other talents you posess ( ; - ) eddie

John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:34 - ID#24135)
can't take criticism
To all ..
Remember when some RSA watchers predicted revolution
over the TRC's ( truth and reconciliation commission )
activities ..
Well guess WHO has wound up blocking submission of
the report. .. NOT THE NATS but THE ANC can you believe
it ?? The TRC found them guilty of intimidation and
gross human rights violations in the townships and
at imkhonto Bases in Zambia and Angola.
Tutu has said that he is afraid that we simply
changed one set of tin gods for another .. so what
else in new. Even Mandela said he agreed with the TRC
report .. ( er .. He was in the slammer at the time ..
I remind you ) ..
De klerc ( peace prize winner !! ) also filed injunction
to have any bad things said about him stricken from
the report.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:37 - ID#24135)
not a problem..
for mozel ..
Kings, sane or mad, rule by divine right.
Thus, insanity makes it that much easier
for The Big Guy to guide their actions.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:39 - ID#25490)
you are quite right.

For myself, I should not post so rabidly anti-christian as those christian fellas are goan to get raptured in less than 400 days and we'll all be free of them once and for all. So, in these last 400 days I'm gonna be nice to the christians.....yeah, sure.......

How is it, Bart, that your guidelines
"... request that no one post derogatory comments about religious or ethnic backgrounds."
But you actually allow posters to drop gratuitous references to a derisable 'historical' document that they call the Bible? Are we not allow to rebut this? Are we not allowed to express our opinion that Christianity is, far from the Saving Word of God, just another monotheistic intolerance? Many say it is a great evil.

the time here is 4:04


John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:40 - ID#24135) the moon ..
for mozel ..
they should send Michael Jackson ..

John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:43 - ID#24135)
insomnia ..
for salty ..
you on night shift ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:50 - ID#153110)
In the instance of George III Parliament did not see it your way. I think that bit about divine right left the stage with Charles I's head.

In any case the Person of the Sovereign in these parts has not claimed a divine right, but only Vox Populi as mandate. Is such a thing as madness even known in the Law of Nations ? In domestic law I believe Our Government is demonstrably mad. It cannot control its spending; it cannot keep track of its possessions; it sometimes refuses to speak in asnwer to a question; it is acting contrary to its own interest in warring on the nation that sustains it. For starters.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:50 - ID#224230)
Greetings 2u2
Thailand / Bangkok is full of gold shops. They love gold here ! There's a gold shop on almost every corner of Bangkok. Enough to give a goldbug a ha%#on!

I however haven't ever bought any here and wouldn't know the degree to which fraud is an issue...Thai's are rather good at that, too...especially with farang ( you and I )

I'll be going up to Bangkok next week and will speak to a good friend's wife - she's a savvy antique dealer - seen it all -
and get back to ya if she has any specific recommendations.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:52 - ID#25490)
By the acts of a Mad Sovereign, I assume you mean George III?

Let it go, mate. Are you really raking over the coals of greivances 200 years old? Is your last name Hadfield or McCoy?

Perhaps you can trace your whanau to one of the great waka.

Frankly, while, as a Japanese sage once said:

"If you want to know your past, look at what you are today. If you want to know your future, look at what you are today."

I am much more interested about what we ( that's thee and me ) can do about the circumstances we find ourselves in today, than worry about how we got here. For the knowledge of how we got here can help us with where we can go tomorrow. But we get where we are going by acting, by doing, by speaking, by thinking: today.

What we do today creates our future.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 04:54 - ID#26793)
Taiwan may be the next victim of the Asian crisis

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:00 - ID#25490)
Yar, Beautiful Jewel is in the Waikato, I'm doing nite shift on me tod, well me and Johnny Walker. Where is that canabeera?

much Thai gold is 23k, some is 22K and rest is 18K or lower. Ask your friend to teach you the difference between these karatages ( and correct me if I'm wrong )
ALso, suggest you get used to weighing in Tolas & Bhat as well as in grams and ounces.
I believe you should buy by weight and purity with "the cost of a bowl of rice" added as dealer's margin over spot. I shall dig up my tola to gram conversion and post or email you with it. But, as crusty has pointed out, it's past my bed time

away to count bellwethers.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:10 - ID#153110)
@falsifacator @John_D @Canadian Invasion
Banish the Atheists. They can contribute nothing for they make it a point to deny the Way, the Truth, and the Light. Or, shall all be banished but the atheists and other Post Modern Generators ? Up with the barriers to all but Politically Correct Discussion and Analysis ?

I take it you don't mind if he bakes in his space suit ?

It has been revealed that Canada is subverting the US with illegal, 3.5 gallon per flush toilets. Greenspeak demands Canada shutdown its illegal toilet works immediately. Or else.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:15 - ID#284255)
Cage Rattler
Sorry no.
Just a web snippet.
But just the other day I posted on the other GOES sat going down.

It will be interesting to watch this day past.
There are so many computer systems glitching at the moment it's not funny.
I would be hearing of 1/2 a dozen glitches a day at the moment ade the rate seems to be climbing.
At least if they fail now hopefully they'll be compliant when we roll through.

Subject: It must be election time again

The New York State Attorney General seized the computers at a
couple of ISPs in New York State.
The ISPes responses to the AG's press release are at
It is unclear what the purpose of physically seizing the news servers
since according to, none of the accused traffickers used as their ISP. Nor was either ISP actually charged with any
criminal activity ( as opposed to the AG's implication to the media ) If
the AG's office wanted to receive those newsgroups they could have received
their own feed. Maybe the A.G. just needed some new computer hardware
for his offices.
Anyone care to guess just how many different law enforcement agencies
are conducting various undercover activities? More seem to pop out of
the wood-work every week.
In case anyone missed it, notice that all the arrested people are
identified by AOL screen names. I assume it was AOL, since the term
"screen name" is rarely used by any other provider. Any prediction
when New York's AG is going to sieze AOL's servers, or does the AG only
target small ISPs likely to have limited legal resources.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:23 - ID#25490)
now your pissin me off
read my post again, mo. I am specifically NOT calling for banishment. But merely pointing out that prohibiting criciticism of religion or the ethnic background, actually allows promotion of same viz

It's Ok for me to say I am an American and Proud of America

It's not OK for you to say America sucks.

now, mozel, are your ready for this conceptual leap...?

It's Ok for me to say I'm a Christian


It's not OK for you to say Christianity sucks.

Politically correct? no. I see this as some kind of righteous monotheistic correctness. Keep it off kitco. the gold market does fine without gratuitous references to the bible.

I do not wish to engage in conversation with you again. mealy mo. Like most who profess to be Christians, you have the fewer attributes of Jesus of Nazareth than the atheist who loves humanity.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:24 - ID#153110)
You must have cut class when they covered precedent in law school.

If we wanted wisdom from Japanese, we should have all ignored Pearl Harbor.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:32 - ID#290456)
In my cyberwanderings yesterday I stumbled across these photos with some strange things in the background. The web page is using them as evidence as structures on the moon; I imagine you will have a slightly different take.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:37 - ID#153110)
I think they are melting down the toilets of gold that Lenin installed in the Kremlin. Piss pots are back in style in atheist's heaven. If there's relief in that for you, I, too, am comforted.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 05:50 - ID#153110)
I had seen that. It takes a leap of faith, in my opinion, to classify any image from federal celluloid or digital data as admissable evidence. Do you think the Japanese Virtual Theme Park on the Moon via Lunar Rover will ever come to pass ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:02 - ID#290456)

My thought on the photos ( after listening to your recent discussions here on the subject ) was ...

Oops - some of the studio set showed up in those frames.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:05 - ID#153110)
@sharefin @It's another blow against academic freedom, if you ask me.
"Vacco also thanked the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, the Toronto ( Ontario ) Police Department, the Federal Police of Sweden, and the Auckland Central Police ( New Zealand ) for their assistance in the investigation."

Now that it is established that the markets are a casino, I wonder if e-trade will be prosecuted under the internet anti-gambling statutes ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:11 - ID#153110)
Hmm, yes, I think I can see that, too.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:28 - ID#253431)
THC ready for Ray Hughes' Millionaire Rally.??
Must be referring to the Silver Star Shot I heard silver's future in the next couple of years so described. Ray thinks the move may be years away and not get started until known inventories are below working supply. That working supply is in the order of 60 million oz, All I have to say is the guys who use silver must figure there's alot more silver out there than the 73 million oz in Comex vaults or are asleep to the situation.

If they are hedged it doesn't show up in open interst - they apparently haven't read about the "short overhang", either. Curious, how many of us know so little about the supply side characteristics of key components of our businesses.? I infer from Mr. Hughes that those closest to the metal, the users, are acting as if there is about 500 million oz out there which won't be worked down to the critical level for years, assuming mine production doesn't exceed demand during the forth coming recession.

In other words the supply demand situation in silver is no where near as critical as the 73 million oz in the comex would imply or silver users are out to lunch. Users are content to wait to make their purchase and are not urgently stockpiling - that's the conclusion I draw.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:37 - ID#153110)
Was the Buffet gambit for profit ? Or political ? And the public offer for LTCM ? Methinks the greater part of the drama is going on behind the curtain and the audience will be surprised when the cast announces The End.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:46 - ID#29048)
Aussie gold exports down...
November 2, 1998

Australia Reports Wider Trade Deficit In September Exports, Especially

Dow Jones Newswires

SYDNEY, Australia -- Australia's trade deficit widened in September as exports, particularly gold exports, sank following strong sales in
August. After several months in which Australia has managed to switch exports to the U.S. and Europe and away from Asia, analysts say the
result is a reality check.

The Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that, after adjusting for seasonal factors, the country's trade deficit widened to 1.01 billion Australian dollars ( US$626.2 million ) in September, from a revised A$544 million in August.

Range of Forecasts

Analysts, on average, had forecast a monthly deficit of A$700 million. Forecasts for a deficit were between A$200 million and A$1 billion.
Excluding once-only factors, or in trend terms, the country's trade deficit widened to A$788 million, from a revised A$754 million in August.
The wider-than-expected monthly deficit was largely the result of a large decline in gold exports, said Keiran Davies, senior economist with Bankers Trust Australia Ltd. Nonmonetary gold sales were down 25%, to their lowest level in eight months. Nonrural exports fell 5%, and exports overall fell 3%.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 06:50 - ID#284255)
Echalon is everywhere.
Just like Iridium.

Technology has encapsulated the globe.
What else is there?

Project **** next?
Did you read AF2025?

As to the Iridium system.
I wonder about the strength of the transmiters on the mobile phones?
The power of the transmiter to reach 500 miles.?

We're being encapsulated and irradiated.
And like passive smokers have no choice.^o-o^

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:04 - ID#259400)
Kitco Survey
I can imagine countless hours of discussion regarding the Kitco Survey now showing on the header. Tomes will be written about freedom of speech, etc. However the long and the short of it as I see it is this. In the workplace one has to pretty much adopt a zero tolerance policy toward off color jokes, racial slurs, etc. It always start out with one just a little bit off the mark and then like kids testing limits it goes a little farther and a little farther until it gets out of control. It then becomes ugly trying to get the thing back under control. It is far easier to stop it before it gets ugly. We should all be cabable of conducting our daily affairs without going outside the bounds of civility. Past history on Kitco shows what happens when things get out of control. I see no problem with limiting discourse to the generally accepted limits of social civilness.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:05 - ID#350145)
comex below 70,000,000
i am wondering if we are going to see increased speculation when the stock drops to 69,999,999.- or better still 59,999,999. over the last year it seems the stocks are eroding away in a pretty consistant fashion. mostly moves downward. have no idea what this means, but on the surface it would seem worth watching.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:10 - ID#153110)
"A third world is a scary future in which information and biogenetic technology is dispersed, giving individuals and small groups untold power."
Gosh, the scary power of information in the hands of individuals. These guys in the modern Inquisition are scared of Galileo and Gutenburg, naturally.

Not that it is more than academic the way things are going, but there is no Constitutional authority for an Air Force. Army Air Corps., yes, but no Air Force.

Passive smokers ? No choices ? What are they ? Trees ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:11 - ID#284255)
IMPORTANT NOTICE ABOUT GOES 8 ( EAST Satellite ) : GOES-8 was commanded into safe hold mode at approximately 4 AM EST on Tuesday, October 27, in response to a large attitude disturbance. Preliminary engineering analysis indicates that an anomaly condition in the controlling earth sensor or the attitude control electronics is responsible for the loss of attitude control. Telemetry data is currently being gathered for a NASA/NOAA anomaly meeting at 10 AM this morning. GOES-8 imagery and sounding data will not be available until further notice. GOES-10 will be placed into a full disk imaging mode beginning at approximately 8 AM this morning to cover for the GOES-8 outage. Pending the recommendations from the 10 AM meeting, the first available recovery time for GOES-8 will be 6 PM EST this evening.

GOES 8 Working Again: The satellite was returned to operation at 0245Z 10/28/98.
Check the Satellite Services Division

Glad I don't suffer from:

"Preliminary engineering analysis indicates that an anomaly condition in the controlling earth sensor or the attitude control electronics is responsible for the loss of attitude control."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:12 - ID#25192)
Bart - re. Survey
I'm a lurker but voted erroneously.
I think comments as noted in the survey have a negative impact on Kitco.
I think to revoke posting rights to such postings would have a positive impact on Kitko.
I voted to the contrary in error.
Bart, I've been a long time lurker and have enjoyed and respected your site and the posters within. I have recommended this site to many. Freedom of speech isn't compromised by setting the standard, or the standard of the content, of the speech.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:12 - ID#267255)
Bart, what have we come to???
InterNet surveys? The subject matter of this survey notwithstanding, I believe the results of the survey may be false and mis-leading. Why? Because if you "vote early and vote often", one is able to skew the results in his direction. This survey software allows the same poster to vote multiple times. Simply tender your vote, visit another site, return to this site, review the vote count, vote again, and you will note that your second vote has been duly recorded, according to the vote count.

Can it therefore possibly reflect undisputable accuracy?

If only we could have similar ability tomorrow in the good ole USA, eh? I could single-handedly cancel an awful lot Klintler support! AND WOULD!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:15 - ID#288466)
Monday morn XAU stuff

Yvan Auger's XAU Elliott wave analysis - not yet updated

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:20 - ID#288466)
Another weekend find
This has nothing to do with gold, except for the GOLDen color of the stone. Hmmmmmmmmmm.....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:20 - ID#153110)
@Free Means Free Up Over The libelled can sue.
"Freedom of speech isn't compromised by setting the standard, or the standard of the content, of the speech." also attributed to Jos Goebbels

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:21 - ID#341189)
Morning PM comment from Europe

(Mon Nov 02 1998 07:34 - ID#153110)
@Censor Thy Thought, Hold Thy Tongue.
Fear to be Free, Lest thee be banished.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:06 - ID#258302)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:08 - ID#367411)
@Jim re: Silver Moonwalk
Hi Jim!

I certainly am looking forward to the rally Ray spoke of. While I know he is patient and feels it may take a few more years, pls keep in mind:

*He definitely said we may see a "millionaire-making rally". That statement is significant from someone who knows the market so well. We may have to wait, but if a moonshot is coming then it's worth it to wait until the time is ripe.

*I really don't think he is including the Y2K scare in his assessment. People are starting to buy coins big time now in the US......if this activity picks up in other major economies like Europe, and if it spreads to a wider segment of the population......we may have a whole new segment of demand that wasn't there over the past few years.

*"Short overhang": This makes sense for the "gold-carry" & "yen-carry" situation where people borrowed & sold yen & gold as a cheap source of funds.....but this does not exist with silver, right? Can anyone explain where a "short overhang in silver" might come from?

Good luck to all,


(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:12 - ID#347457)
@Bart on survey
Oh Bart, what are you getting into? Sometimes I think that you must feel sorry for starting the site ;- )

Who will be the judge?

Will we have a committee for purity?

Who will guard that we shovel it equally?

Will we take action even if the comment was made against the group with no representation on this forum?

Will we take action against the majority ( e.g. from USA, which frequently talks down them "other bastards"?

Will we bring a language expert to judge if the comment is just improper language structure in expressing and/or interpreting the comment?

Will we ask the offender to come for a personal interview and a background investigation so we can better judge his/her intention?

Maybe we should ask one of the US government agencies to step in. Oh well, it would not work, the site is run from Canada ;- )

I am just one of the "ethnic minorities" on the forum and in the "US melting pot" who got his share of insults but will never be the first "to cast the stone"

I am sure that there always be somebody who "knows better" so I just shut up.

Regards - Miro

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:20 - ID#258427)
Gold and Silver....zzzzzzzzz

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:21 - ID#35571)
Gold chart

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:35 - ID#233199)
Do whatever the heck you want - I'm thankful you bother at all.

Thanks again - from many of us I'm sure.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:40 - ID#288466)
Gollum (Gold chart)

Thanks for the chart - this looks like a good source, but the root directory is a pay-membership site. Do they have a silver chart as well?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:45 - ID#411163)
Jims could it be that silver users know that they can pass on any
price increases to the end users so they do not tie up their cash with inventory? I remember something to the effect that if the price of silver doubled Kodaks cost of film would only go up a couple of cents.
The Y2K thing could be silvers kick off. Dealers around here can't get the stuff. no one is selling

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:47 - ID#33184)
It's a record ! - 0.2% = US Savings rate
First time that U.S. savings rate negative on a monthly basis since data collected in 1959.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:47 - ID#371229)
Randumb ruminations- leading into the month of October even the national media
was widely expecting an even very bearish Dow, now the month is past & we have seen instead the largest monthy bull market ever. Now it is widely perceived ( at least certainly here at Kitco that was due in large part to market manipulative forces ) .
Now we wait for the other edge of the storm yet the eye of this storm is certainly lingering long, yes? I would suggest that under market manipulative situations that if anyone might perceive the liklihood of a negative turn in the dow it will NOT in fact do so. If we can see, so can "they". One might question if the urgency to hold the dow into "feel good" territory will lessen after tomorrow's election. In any event IMHO
when the next wall hits it will be a sudden overnight sensation that catches "them" off gaurd.
Pure contrarism does not apply on the upside as overvaluation is certainly not a factor of concern Remember at least 1/3 of this market's input is through blind faith mutual fund investors, which also influences foreign investors who have -- where else to turn for a positive return?

Mike Stewart
(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:51 - ID#270253)
Bart can do as he wishes on this site. It's his dime.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:58 - ID#288186)
Mike S.; It's 35 cents now, in most parts of the U.S. ///Inflation, you know...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:59 - ID#284255)
From articles on the data outage
Subject: GOES-10 Maneuver 11/09/98 - Issued 10/26/98
A GOES-10 East-West Station Keeping maneuver will be performed on Monday, November 09, 1998 at 1049 UTC. For National Weather Service operations: The backup date, and last window of opportunity, for this maneuver is Thursday; November 12, 1998. The federal holiday ( Veteran's Day ) on November 11, 1998, and the Leonids Meteor Shower November 14-20 dictate these dates.
=end snip=

Subject: GOES-8 Data Outage : Sent 10-27-98 / 0930Z
At approximately 0740Z, the GOES-8 Spacecraft was placed in safe mode due to failure of one of the momentum wheels.=end snip=
GOES-8 was commanded into safe hold mode at approximately 4 AM EST on Tuesday, October 27, in response to a large attitude disturbance.
=end snip=

An anomaly meeting was conducted today at 10 am which included engineering representation from NOAA, NASA and Space Systems/Loral. Telemetry data from the event was analyzed and possible failure modes discussed. While there is strong evidence that the large disturbance that triggered this morning's loss of earth lock was the result of an Electro Static Discharge ( ESD ) event in the controlling Earth sensor, there are also inconsistent outputs from the on-board computer's Attitude and Orbit Control Electronics ( AOCE ) to the momentum wheels connected to the event, which require further explanation before recovery can begin. AOCE experts are currently examining the spacecraft firmware and software.
=end snip=

An anomaly telcon at 3 PM with NOAA, NASA, and SS/L engineers did not result in a final determination of this morning's anomaly. All parties did concur to proceed with our plan to attempt a recovery of GOES-8 tonight at approximately 6 PM EST.
We will receive earth sensor telemetry as we approach 6 PM spacecraft local time. We will perform several benign tests while still in safe hold mode, of the earth sensor and attitude control system performance. If and only if we conclude from the results of these tests that the on board computer and the earth sensor are working properly, we will proceed to command GOES-8 back to normal on-orbit mode at approximately 6 PM EST with the redundant earth sensor in control. If we see any anomalous performance of either system, we will remain in safe-hold mode through the night and reconvene in the morning.
If we successfully return to on-orbit mode this evening, we anticipate a return to full disk imaging and sounding operations no earlier than 8 PM EST. Image navigation performance will be severely degraded for 24 following the recovery.
=end snip=

GOES-8 was out of service on Tuesday, October 27, from 0240 AM to 945 PM EST, following a large attitude disturbance which forced satellite controllers to command the spacecraft to "sun pointing safe hold mode". While the exact cause of the anomaly could not be determined, spacecraft telemetry data strongly suggests that the disturbance was the result of an Electro Static Discharge ( ESD ) event in the controlling Earth sensor. GOES-8 was commanded back to normal on orbit mode at approximately 7 PM EST on Tuesday, October 27, following successful completion of a series of engineering tests with the redundant earth sensor and the on board Attitude and Orbit Control Electronics ( AOCE ) which showed nominal performance. The instruments were turned back on at approximately 845 PM EST. GOES-8 began imaging and sounding operations at 945 PM in a a post maneuver recovery imaging and sounding schedule. All spacecraft systems were nominal over night. We will remain in this schedule until image navigation performance stabilizes, at least into Thursday, October 29. Current navigation errors are 20 to 50 KM. GOES-10 will remain in the full disk imaging mode at the direction of the NWS until GOES-8 navigation performance improves.
=end snip=

GOES-8 is back to full operations with the redundant earth sensor in control. All spacecraft systems are nominal. The routine imaging and sounding schedule ( 15 minute continental U.S. imaging ) was initiated at 0645 EST this morning, October 29. Rapid scan operations ( 7.5 minute continental U.S. imaging ) began at 1130 AM EST in support of today's space shuttle launch. Since GOES-8 is back to full operations with acceptable image navigation performance,
=end snip=

Subject: Final GOES-8 status message
GOES-10 had been held in full disk mode while the navigation was an issue with GOES-8.
The navigation improved at 1600 UTC today, and after discussion with NWS and SOCC,
we requested a return to normal operations.
=end snip=

An interesting site:
The Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

(Mon Nov 02 1998 08:59 - ID#30126)
Cage Rattler
It just goes to prove that one CAN live on credit... at least until the bank cuts you off... :- ) )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:00 - ID#413175)
Gold survey

If this voting mechanism forbids multiple votes from the same poster then we could put this idea to a neat use. We could have a running opinion poll on the future price of our metal. It could be refreshed once a week, say on a Friday night when we would all start voting our price again. We could have prices like future delivery contracts, maybe at $25 or even $50 intervals to keep it simple, to vote for the p.o.g. six months out.

The results would be rather like looking at futures but confined to the cognoscenti and others who post on our board. Bart might well get yet more exposure if this Kitco index of "futures" became established and received coverage.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:04 - ID#347457)
@Mike Stewart
Mike - I agree. He asked so I chipped in my dime, as the reply to survey doesn't really express what you think. Just like any other pools ;- ) Now I really shut up.

John B
(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:07 - ID#77133)
Gold Survey
Surprising to see that Kitco has an excellent survey functionality in place. I agree that a weekly survey of POG forecasts could be meaningful and beneficial to all, particularly if Kitco participants can be restricted to a single vote.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:09 - ID#222231)
Bart, thou being our patron on this commendable board need no reason or poll ( are you WJC in disguise?{; ) ) ) to banish or not anyone who is offensive to any group other than your own opinion. Rich showed deprecation to his own heritage ( half Jew ) which shows his lack of self esteem and respect, thereby making his statement irrelevant, stupid and worthy of no consideration by intelligent posters and lurkers. Now I know where the saying "POOR RICHARD" originated. To forgive is divine, to condemn is..................

Thank you Mr. Bart


(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:10 - ID#339274)
FWIW the Dollar index has given a sell signal,we will see lift
off in the metals

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:18 - ID#284255)
NOAA - What's your flavour?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:19 - ID#409404)
"Rome is burning" as the POG now appears ready to break through support just days after a bunch of us were looking for it to break through resistence on the top side, and we "fiddle" with surveys about one ill-conceived post!

Sometimes I think we are all inmates of some esoteric institution whose purpose is continual delusion. We go through spasms of analysis, examining all manner of economic data, and are then constantly surprised by a marketplace that insists on moving contrary to our expectations.

If we are collectively so damn smart and knowledgeable, why can't we get this stuff right? When the POG rallies, it almost seems like a random quirk. Same goes for silver. Despite our macro level anlysis of COMEX stock levels, et al, a very few market-makers take the price of silver where ever they choose.

Maybe our collective problem is that we naively insist on looking at the PM markets as if they were a real supply/demand balancing mechanism, when in fact they are simply a huge game played by people with the money and mechanisms to do what they want, when they want, for their own purposes which include amusement at our foolishness and confusion.

Are we standing on the shore, yelling at the incoming tide to back off?


(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:19 - ID#271125)
Merrill offering corporate research for free, announced this
London. For what it is worth..

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:23 - ID#286230)
I just came back from your YK2 site. I was looking for and could not find a/the site listing suggested things to have stockpiled eg medicines tools food etc. Do you or anyone have directions to that sort of info?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:23 - ID#432395)
@ On Rich's Post.
Although I don't agree with Rich's post, I don't think he should be thrown off the site because of it. First of all, how do we know that the statement he made isn't true? I can't be sure. "I'm glad I'm only half Jewish", what is wrong with that statement, if that's what he feels?

I live in a Canadian city of some 700K souls. Native people are responsible for approx 80% of the violent crime. The downtown area of the city is completely devoid of people, after the sun goes down. If there were no Native
people in the city, the rest of the pop would breathe a collective sigh of relief.

DO THESE STATEMENTS MAKE ME A RACIST? White middle class men, have been taking the heat from everbody for too long! I know that most people after reading this will say that the Native people didn't
have the opportunities, that I had,Yada. Yada, Yada, and so on, but that doesn't do me any good, when I'm
laying on the ground, with a bullet in my head, because some punk wanted the $20 dollars in my pocket!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:25 - ID#333126)
Bermuda Triangle Theory of why Brazil invested in Russia

read the middle story

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:28 - ID#284255)
Did you notice the date at the top of that chart?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:36 - ID#333126)
Sultan of Brunei sells stake in Aussie bank

not bad. he made 50% capital gain ...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:46 - ID#372228)
G7 - Financial Crisis Fund
Carl, in your post of 7:21 the Yahoo Article stated that the G7 was going to establish a $90 Billion Financial Crisis Fund to stabilize the markets! This is preposterous! What gives them the right to establish this kind of fund with taxpayers $$$s? Especially when the money is most likely used to bail out the Hedge funds who have so nicely Sh*t all over the gold markets with there borrowed/sold gold positions!!! I object!!! Let those who made the bad investments go down the tubes...why should they ( banks and hedge funds ) be bailed out when we as individual investors have been taking it in the shorts with the price of gold/gold shares!!! This is completely unfair and favors the rich in all aspects of manipulation of these markets!! Who do they think they are!! Besides...why do they think that $90 Billion will be enough! And what happens when it isn't enough? And who ends up paying for it all???

What a bunch of Sh*t Heads!!

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:51 - ID#231112)
On Censorship
I am inclined to agree with Miros recent post on the implications of censorship that gets imposed from without. While we should all deplore the sort of small-minded ad hominum attack that has often derailed this forum, any attempt to screen out posters because they indulge themselves in vituperative name calling will ultimately diminish everyones rights. I am not talking about disruptive attempts to excessively post or in any way impede the usual business of this site. Certainly we would wish Bart to deny access to any poster who frivolously tries to undermine the exchange of views expressed here. But to ban a poster for a single comment, even racist, seems a victory for the totalitarians. As Miro suggests, are we to monitor posts that are "sexist"? And what about that other favorite of the politically correct; namely, "homophobia." Clearly once we go down that road, we risk the establishment of a speech code. As someone who has lived in a higher education environment for many years now, I have witnessed the slow erosion of free speech by those "diversity" advocates, feminists, post-modern ideologuesthe politically correct crowedwho would save us all from evil. Ask Professor Jared Sakren , head of the Arizona State University Acting Program, who was fired recently for his "selection of works from a sexist European canon that is approached traditionally." ( taken from CAMPUS, the ASU student newspaper ) A group of feminist faculty objected to Sakrens use of plays by Shakespeare, Aeschylus, Chekhov, and Ibsen in his classroom. He was asked to change the endings of plays by these authors ( no, I have not misread the demand ) . Sakren refused, and then the department required him to use a play entitled, "Betty the dYeti: An Eco-Fable," the story of a logger who has sex with a sasquatch and is transformed into an environmentalist.

I am not citing and exceptional case. Colleges and Universities have become convents for the New Left. Ask your children and grandchildren, they know all about the new totalitarians.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:55 - ID#24135)
Charles' Head
To Mozel ..
When they cut off Charles's head .. they opened a
can of worms..

to all
lobbyists have succeeded in bringing the vote to over
50 % in favor of giving Rich the axe .. this
establishes the kitco mathematics at greater than
50 % politically correct dorks in the control of
Nazi wannabe thought police.
In future to stuff these guys up as much as possible
I will only offer misinformation on RSA mines on this
Ill send the best advice to guys I know by e-mail ..
provided Im SURE they voted for Rich to stay ..

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:56 - ID#43185)
No I didn't. I just thought it had a lot of data on one page so I passed it on.

Never mind.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 09:57 - ID#31868)
First off...Thanks to Bart for providing the site...yup...uh to the matter at hand...
It is seemingly absurd to create a homogenous ruling on the comments made by Rich...the site is in Canada...and the posters are from around the Island that is Long cannot legislate guidelines which cross every known race...religon...and emotive set of feelings...expression and conversation...

That being said...everyone who posts on Kitco entered into a contract with Bart upon supplying the name they post with and then receiving the password from Bart which enables them to is a moot point as seen through my eyes...

In the final analysis Bart is the FINAL Judge in the matter as it is his court...the rules were clearly stated from the outset...I do find it most kind of Bart to allow the jury in this instance to be comprised of all the defendants...interesting concept...a most provocative look at the conversation earlier on truth...we all know the facts but now we search ourselves for the truth...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...that having been said I close my time on the soapbox with these thoughts...

Politically correct = Patronizing corksucker...

If you can't stand the heat...get out of the kitchen and in the immortal plagiarized and modified words of Gallagher...My computer screen has a knob that says bright but it don't work...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:01 - ID#258302)
BIBLE - JOHN 3 :19

silver plate
(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:06 - ID#234253)
Voyeur Professor
You higher educational types make me puke. Intellectuals and the unbrideled liberalism they espouse have destroyed our morality. Just look at the results that Hollywood has produced with their uncensored films. sh-- and fu-- are as common as "good morning".

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:08 - ID#242325)
Bart: We are treading on thin ground here. We must be careful to distinguish facts from unfounded assertions. As a Jew I find Rich's comments offensive. But from the other side of the ledger it is a FACT ( and this was brought to my attention in a Jewish newspaper ) that most of the key economoic policymakers in the Clinton Administration and IMF are Jewish. Would you advocate banning someone who pointed this out?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:09 - ID#252150)
Gibbous@Winterpeg--Must be like when the first settlers arrived there
I doubt if they ventured outside the fort after sunset.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:09 - ID#43185)
Iraq saga continues

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:12 - ID#317193)
rich and Gold....THOUGHTS....
If you really care about his post and "object" I suggest you object to the nature of is imperfect...learn to live with it and be educated by it. Change the word "jew" to Italian or female or black or white get the idea. I hope.

Gold...still waiting for $285 or lower but getting very itchy to buy. Time to hedge the bet and dive back in this week for about 30% of my "powder". Go golf!!!

Anybody have any politically correct jokes for Italians?;- ) I'm half and will not call for a poll.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:13 - ID#252150)
PDG@You shareholders are now on your own. I've done my best to keep
the price up by selling it short & buying it back @ a higher price several times in the last week. I was stopped out again this morn & now give up. Good luck.

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:17 - ID#231112)
A postlogue for tolerant1 and John Disney


Certainly I sympathize with your frank equation, and that should be the point around which we all rally. The history of censorship is replete with attempts to impose the dominant morality on a minority. It is not very long ago that the use of profanity was banned by the dominant morality of the right. Joyce's "Ulysses" was kept out to the U.S. untill 1933; Henry Miller's "Tropic of Cancer" never made it until the early 1960's. If the fundamentalist right can't stop profanity anymore, why should the Left be permitted to impose its secular agenda?

John Disney, you are most certainly right to identify the behedding of Charles as a watershed moment. Cromwell got his way.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:20 - ID#254386)
and our survey said: gulpsnpuffstaya
As the man said, if you can't stand the f* heat, kindly vacate the kitchen.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:20 - ID#252150)
I was foiled by the weak USD.
If it strengthens again POG could really dive.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:23 - ID#43185)
Not a bear trap?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:26 - ID#244418)
Bart--Thank you for setting up this board. I trust your judgement to do whatever you think is appropriate with it. Heaven forbid that Kitco-dom should become a demoncracy. I vote against taking surveys. I vote for Bart.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:27 - ID#413156)
Another Brick for the Wall
Bart Kitco As you have many bricks in place for your foundation against free speech then why does this Jewish thing bother you so much? Maybe your concern should be directed toward the topic of precious metals and not more censorship rules .I find Tolerant 1 a distasteful poster with his Gulp Drinking interludes and his attacks on many world leaders with very little mention about precious metals but then who am I to make judgment?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:29 - ID#147211)
Trader Vic
YOU DAMN RIGHT!!!! This shows how much they have us by the gonies. Maybe there ought to be "Committee to save OUR Arse" set up to fight this type of Blivits. No details yet, but that's what hit me when the $90 Bil came up. They know the US taxpayer is good for this. I'd like to see Rubin's head go the way of King Charles. Thanx for a good statement, Charlie

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:31 - ID#288232)

the one controlled by the russians....

just one more to add to the gotta buy group....damned
near everything now....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:31 - ID#333126)
Y2k watchers: embedded NT next,4,28180,00.html?

dunno about you guys -- NT has more lines of code than ... 35 million for NT 4 ( or was that NT 5 )

more code = higher likelihood of bugs

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:36 - ID#176200)
@rich. Voting!
Looks like "Don't care" and "negative impact" are neck-n-neck! The postive Impact pony is way in front! Is this the first turn or final stretch? What were toe odds???

Not speaking for my employer, of course!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:39 - ID#423380)
@James---Hasn't changed much!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:40 - ID#284255)
What you are looking for you will find on these two pages.

Survival & Energy Info

Food, Health & Gardening Links

A good way to use the sites is to use your browser find/search facility.

This site is very interesting. - Esp for the "GEEKS".

Much info on hardware, OS, software and compliancy.



(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:41 - ID#43185)
Viva Brazil!!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:42 - ID#372228)
Gollum - Not A Bear Trap?
Thanks for the post...I have to say that the Bull Sh*t just doesn't want this party to end...did you notice how the article didn't even mention corporate earnings!...Isn't that what stock markets feed on? With a slowing economy ( east and West, North and South ) wouldn't one think that earnings will be significantly lower...then come the layoffs...which by the way just started here in NY...would reduce customer spending ( which drives the economy ) ...and lowers velocity of the currency...etc. etc. etc...WAKE UP OUT THERE, YOU ALL CAN'T BE THAT STUPID...CAN YOU?

Lan Man
(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:48 - ID#320108)
@Ridgerunner - I Agree
Supply/Demand fudamentals... Manipulation by the paper pushers, you bet! For real world S/D F just look at circulated silver dollars, they are selling for over 2 times spot. Bet by November '99 they will be selling for over $20 ea. ( more if POS takes off ) . Look at certified gold - have the prices dropped 25-30% in the last 2 years like bullion has? MS-64 St. Gaudens are selling for what they were back in Feb.'96 when POG was over $400.

Oh and if anyone wants to be politically correct - get off this GOLD Discussion Group. Go GOLD, GUNS & GOLF!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:53 - ID#50148)
Now I know why they're handing
so many new credit cards... I found it quit interesting that after the gold card there is the platinum card ( with higher limits of course ) . What was really interesting to see was the next 'card' after the platinum credit cards was... the titanium card! Yes, the new rarest of rare metals. :- ) )

Perhaps this is a play on the metals light weight and great strength? After all, who would care to link a credit card to a monetary metals history for psychological reasons? I mean, after all, the word 'gold' does conjure up all sorts of images, and so does platinum. Then again, it's probably just me...........

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:54 - ID#339274)
FWIW a sell signal has been given by the OEX.BOnds,Dollar all in decline
mode.XAU has to close above 74,Plat Feb likes to close above 340.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 10:55 - ID#43185)
It's interesting, too, how many charts of metals, treasuries, oil, etc. are all showing wedge patterns and such which portend some kind of climactic event within the next two or three weeks. Put them all together and it makes an interesting scenario.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:00 - ID#409404)
Gollum > Wedge Patterns
I've noticed the same thing on individual stocks. Hecla has a classic wedge pattern nearing a break-out one way or the other, possibly within just a couple days. Something big is about to happen.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:03 - ID#343259)
@bart @survey
I believe that Bart ( via the survey ) is merely reflecting for all of us, how difficult it is to be put into the role of censor. Especially in a world forum. Since survey taking is no mean feat ( to be sure the answers are, in fact, as mutually exclusive as possible, for example ) one could argue in the present case that "Doesn't matter" and "Would have a negative impact" could effectively combine to match "Would have a positive" impact, as a previous poster alluded.

On the plus side, if we can figure out how to be civil with each other there might be a ray of hope for the world. A "golden ray"? ( Back to topic )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:06 - ID#277224)
There was a number of references over the weekend
to Argentina Gold.Would anyone like to do a brief
profile or refer to possible source?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:08 - ID#31868)
Voyeur Professor, AGMan, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...most
Regulus, Namaste' gulp and puff to ya even though you find the gulp repunant but have seen fit to leave the puff unscathed...pray tell how one can discuss gold and not discuss the worlds' leaders? not the discussion of world leaders ( who are these people any exist? ) directly related to gold and silver...

Is not gold called the political metal by all...even those charlatans who would preach the Noble metal to be JUST another commodity... I have contempt and disdain for these so called world leaders...they place the yoke of taxes...their criminal activities and abhorrent and vial social experiments on individuals shoulders around the globe...they are parasites who feed on the host known as We the People no matter what land is called home...their justice...for those who thrive on freedom can only be found at the end of the barrel on a gun...

Cowards ( among many other nefarious attributes ) they be...their definition of fair game...the unarmed...their law...the slice of the scythe...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:14 - ID#339274)
FWIW stopped out for a 1 point loss.Powerful market,standing aside.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:15 - ID#43185)
Silver volatility
Silver has started to jump around for some reason. Spiked down about 10:00 or so and now jumped up to new morning highs.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:15 - ID#290287)
I wonder what percentage of the votes are lurkers only. I also wonder if the same question worded differently would produce a different response.
A gulp and a puff, namaste'

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:15 - ID#320136)
To All
I applaud Bart for his reaching out to the participants and
lurkers of this forum. His efforts to make this site the
best that it can be, calls for certain rules and etiquette.
A survey will clearly indicate overall sentiment in this
regard, however I don't believe that any position or statement
such as the one expressed by Rich should be disallowed on
the basis that it may or may not be insulting to certain

I DO feel, however, that the creation of this forum was not
to encourage censureship, but rather, to further its own

Why not ask yourselves: WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS FORUM?
Clearly, it is a GOLD DISCUSSION site, where opinions and
discussion are encouraged and welcome on a global scale, as
they pertain to and merit consideration relevant to GOLD.
Point finale.

Should Bart have developed this site to target discussion
about racism,pornography, hate mongering, religion, ballroom
dancing, ice fishing etc. HEY -- that's OK -- but I'm sure
contributors to this site would no longer be one and the
same. As such, my understanding is that this is a forum
where any and all discussion should be welcomed as it
relates to gold and the precious metals.

Contributors who feel compelled to air their views on such
potentially incendiary and off-topic subjects should take
their viewpoints elsewhere, not because a panel wishes to
morally condemn their arguments based on their merit, but
simply because this type of offering has absolutely NOTHING
to do with the topic at hand.

Thank you, BART, for your devotion to this extremely helpful
site for precious metal bugs. May it remain so.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:17 - ID#258142)
ftp server is not accessable for the second day, no way to post graphic

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:19 - ID#43185)
Treasuries ar dropping....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:20 - ID#375108)
Carmack re: ARP

Beautiful green arrows across the board this a.m. on Bart's header, and someone likes Stillwater. Hey Silverbaron...we finally got our first win of the season. Go Panthers!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:23 - ID#43185)
Like, when he's a hundred and five?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:23 - ID#284255)
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Year 2000 Compliance Register

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:23 - ID#33184)
The pound has a sinking feeling ...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:30 - ID#290202)
(re: survey)...If I were King...

"Mercy and Justice are the weightier parts of the Law" ...spoken by the

King of the Jews 32 A.D. --- When to administer mercy... ( Rich surely spoke

in jest, at himself if he truly is yiddish, yet, I know men who have lost loved

ones as a result of a joke gone awry... ) --- When to administer justice... ( the

only way to establish order ( in an imperfect forum ) is to make rules and

Stick To Them. Usually in our home , I end up telling our daughter, "These

are the rules and Next Time I'm going to stick by them...Now, go out and

have fun, and be good!"

Charles Keeling
(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:33 - ID#344225)
I have been watching ARP waiting for the right entry
point. Unfortunately, I was out of town when news
broke & the stock ran from .47 to 3.47 on heavy
volume. Yesterday was profit taking day with a volume
of 1.3 million. The shaares dropped from 3.47 to 3.00.

This AM the drop continued on down to 2.82 where it
firmed and rallied back to 3.10. Todays volume so
far has been 378,000 shares.

ARP has about 35 million shares outstanding. They
control a very large number of properties in the Andes
right along the border with CHILE. ABX owns 40 % of
the shares, and has a working agreement on 2 properties.

Newmont dished up 5 million a few days ago for a look see
at some properties.

So-I missed the big move by being out of town. Now I
am watching closely for things to settle down with the
possibility of finding a good entry point.

Check it out:

You can down load their slide presentation for a real
close look at what Newmont say befoore they gave
ARP 5 mil for a look at the properties.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:38 - ID#372228)
Gollum - Bull Wedges on PM stocks
I too have noticed this and think that the breakout will be coming very, I ask myself what would cause such cataclismic reactions ( cataclismic is what's needed for gold stocks now ) to allow gold stocks to soar to new highths??? Well...on tuesday is the election..that would help...but the big one would be what's in the headlines today..."IRAQ REFUSES TO COOPERATE WITH UN!"...pretty defiant wouldn't you say...and obviously this president "Bill ( Flasher ) Clinton" needs a war to get people's minds off from the coming impeachments, don't you think??? Any other things you can think of?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:38 - ID#28882)
@ Lou_Jan, all re Survey, Rich, yada yada yada

Must express agreement with Lou_Jan that biggest infraction was that the post in question was off-topic. IMO, we have _way_ too many off-topic discussions here cluttering the boards and gumming the bandwidth --- Clinton, guns, obscure politics -- let's get rid of it all. Not the place, Kitco ain't.

And a note re the Survey -- this is a bit of a joke -- you know how easy it is to spam one of these things? Results can't, shouldn't be trusted.

sam the goy, with first and last off-topic post.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:40 - ID#33184)
Everyone BUY stocks !!! You have to be long stocks ! As a matter of fact, I can't imagine anyone not wanting to own stocks. Go to the bank, borrow more money and buy stocks ! Mortgage the house ( again ) and buy stocks ! There is no reason not to be in stocks........except for maybe length of the business cycle, price to book ratios, weakness in the dollar, continually lowered earinings estimates, low cash levels in overall portfolios, recent break of the 200 day moving average. But who really cares about that.... I wouldn't worry about it. Just do what Abbey Joseph Cohen and every other analyst that couldn't trade their way out of a wet paper bag says. BUY ! Buy ! buy ! buy buaa bu aba baaaa baaaah baaaaah baaaah .......someone hear sheep ????

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:41 - ID#43185)
Rio Narcea

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:43 - ID#284255)
I just checked with my FTP program.
No access available.
In fact I got shunted off into the KITCO archives.

About 60mb's of Kitco from 1996 to end 1997.

Bet there's some good foodfights amongst that lot. ( :- ) ) )

FMC is a $4 billion chemical and machinery manufacturer that's
headquartered in Chicago. Its SEC filing from last Friday is interesting
because it has an unusually detailed section on Y2K fixes.

FMC says it's about done fixing its PCs, but they just account for 10
percent of the total number of vital systems. The other 90 percent are
manufacturing and related systems, and the filing says FMC has not yet
begun to fix 70 percent of them.

Still, it plans to have most of 'em done by mid-1999 -- assuming the
schedule doesn't slip.
"The company has assessed its Y2K risks and established its priorities in
addressing these risks. Of the systems the company identified as critical,
10 percent were information technology ( "IT" ) systems, such as desktop PCs
and telecommunications systems. The remaining 90 percent of these systems
consist of manufacturing and facilities systems, including embedded
technologies, process controls and programmable logic devices... The
company completed its assessment of manufacturing and facilities systems in
April 1998. Modifications to approximately 70 percent of the company's
critical systems are in the preparation phase and the remaining systems are
being renovated or tested or have been substantially completed. Although
the divisions of the company may progress toward Y2K compliance for
manufacturing and facilities systems at different rates, the company
expects to have the majority of these systems Y2K-compliant by June 30, 1999."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:46 - ID#389387)
A posted apology would be acceptable to my taste.

Removal of Rich from this site is not necessary if you will extend the privelege of similar modicum of comments to all others in the group. "Censure" perhaps instead of "Impeachment"? What language is considered to be cause for removal from this site? Is the posting of the "seven words not to be said on TV" cause for removal? If I am insulted by other's rantings, what is the limit of my response in the use of ad-hominem?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:46 - ID#43185)
I kind of think the dollar doesn't have to fall too much further to trigger a lot of treasury and bond liquidation. There do seem to be a lot of indications we're getting close to the far side of the eye. Including Hillary and Bill, Iraq ( don't forget Iran on the Afgahnistan border with "war games" ) , oversold stocks, incipient inflationary indications that Fed might be disappointing people looking forward to continued rate cuts....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:47 - ID#288186)
trader_vic & Gollum; Other possibilities are the "continued" fall of the dollar
and the EMU resolutions on Nov 6TH ( correct date? ) . SDRer or
Silverbaron can help with the date and details regarding EMU...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:52 - ID#350194)
@sam and ALL - Surveys, Governments (would be kings ala Louis XV)+ Gold
Good point sam "...I also wonder if the same question worded differently would produce a different response." The obvious answer to your ponderous question is: 'Of Course it would!' The results of any questionaire is obviously affected ( skewed ) by the various choices the questionairee is allowed to choose from. Therefore, the writer of the questions has much more control over the outcome of the survey than may seem obvious, on the face of it, to most participants. Bart and most thinking Canadians are very aware of this issue due to the relentless efforts of a treasoness group of insurrgents based in 'la Belle Province' ( Quebec ) whose sole objective is to destroy the greatest country on the face of the Earth ( Sorry to inform my friends south of the border - I t'aint talkin' bout Good 'ole USA ) . Everyone please note that a big reason that the price of Gold continues to increase vis a vis the Canadian dollar is due to the uncertainty that this group lends to Canada's long term economic and political stability.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:52 - ID#43185)
More events of interest
11:40 DOLLAR DOWN 0.7% TO 114.53 YEN; DOWN 0.1% TO 1.6506 MARKS.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:54 - ID#43185)
Metals quiet?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:54 - ID#224230)
cage rattler is right
Whilst I beleive in the truth behind gold and eschew the casino stockmarkets.....I'm also a subscriber the the theory that we're witnessing the first salvos in WWIII - An East West financial war.

A gross oversimplification but in a nutshell :-

The East has all the savings ( fiat currencies - but savings nevertheless )

And the West has an ability to CREATE NEW "WEALTH" out of nothing with a culture of cretive individualism and a rampant stockmarket.

Remember how the Japanese ramped their property market until two blocks Tokyo was "worth" the same as California....Well the USA are now doing something similar - YAHOO is worth more than Osaka ( or something like that ! )

All of which will work until one side or another finds themselves really losing the battle to dominate the first decades of the 21st century..

at which point they act the spoilsport, "pull the Golden trigger" and point out that the emperor ( whether US or Japanese ) has no clothes on.

Right now it suits both side to maintain the pretence politically, financially and economically - and thus US stock market is a super place to make money...I hate to say it.

Gold will however have its day.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:57 - ID#33184)
Stocks -- Double top in the OEX. (5min) ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:57 - ID#290287)
sam the goy
Brother sam,
You forgot to sign your post- sam_a
a gulp and a puff to ya..Namaste'
- just plain sam :- )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 11:58 - ID#258142)
Thanks for reply. I have found these archives too. But it looks like \pub\discussion sub-directory is missing

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:07 - ID#252150)
The manipulators are in firm control
Like gambling in a crooked casino. If you're right you can still lose.

I'm thinking of starting to short AMZN & averaging up if necessary. But I'm worried about ending up with a lot of AMZN & just when it really starts to plunge having it called in by my broker.

Has anyone out there had a stock they were short called in by their broker?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:08 - ID#212197)
- Considering the newest percentage numbers of saving rates, I'm afraid the Americans are today less prepared for any type of crisis than ever before.
- China has expressed the intention to keep a significant amount of currency reserves in Euros.
- Japan is unloading treasuries, the YEN is becoming strong, the dollar is weakened.

Ultimately, a weaker dollar means higher gold prices in USD. The expressed hope of goldbugs is that the dollar goes down further. How realistic is this?

How weak is the American economy, and how strong is the European economy?
One thing seems rather certain: the Euro, no matter how strong this currency will turn out to be, will weaken the dollar even more.

The question is: how much shall we bet on this Euro effect?

One thing is sure: to buy physical gold is a safe bet, no matter what.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:08 - ID#277224)
Thanks for the discussion group information site.Very specific
to ARP and very,very SCARY.Would not want to rush into this
one.Not a good way to begin the week.Someone always willing
to help on this forum and it is appreciated.Much information
is esoteric but it can help to fill in some of the pot holes and
improve the odds.General discussion is great but in the final
analysis one must focus on exactly where the $$$$$ are deposited.
Very good site, representing much experience and wisdom.Would not
like to see anything that is counter productive,jeopardize it.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:09 - ID#339274)
Bonds and Gold
FWIW Covered my short position on the bonds 128 2/32,gold won't
make up its mind today.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:10 - ID#290202)
PLEASE!!!!!!!! SDR'er, ANYONE???

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:11 - ID#286230)
Thanks. They should keep me occupied for the afternoon.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:15 - ID#424394)
The poll is invalid because it allows repeat votes
Distasteful writings can be ignored. Freedom of speech is too precious to permit any censorship. We should castigate those who raise up their ethnic/religious/racial/homo hackles as we do those who bait for such reactions. After much thought, I realize there is no way to determine when a line has been crossed. The best way for us here and for those who may feel insulted to deal with such slurs is to ignore them. Period!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:20 - ID#238422)
50% Rich and stupid jokes....
because Retired Soldier is not here....he would have cut
this Rich in 1 mln.pieces ...and we wouldn't worry so much...
Now we got a problem.

I think Mr. Kitner naturally does not want his site look
like a forum of Jew haters, it always stinks, on the other
hand it seems to me that Rich posted just an exteremely
stupid joke which nobody seems to appreciate due to complete
absense of any funny element in it....Why wouldn't Rich get
out of his hidding hole and at least say that it was a joke?
If it was not a joke, I'm calling Retired Soldier...dah!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:23 - ID#375108)
Carmack: Argentina Gold
Wonder if you also noticed the post of Charles Keeling @ 11:33 on ARP. I do not have a position in this play, but am also watching for a possible entry point. Caveat emptor on the Silicon Investor site; these threads can provide useful info but there are also people posting with axes to grind both pro and con. This one will take an iron stomach right now as regards volatility, but the potential seems there. Good luck!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:24 - ID#339274)
FWIW Went short,stop 545

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:25 - ID#413156)
Not Prejudicially Obedient
Surprisingly Bart does a survey about this Jewish thing and not about the direction of Gold .Is this a Gold forum? As I am bearish on Gold for the foreseeable future it would be interesting to have a survey on the direction of precious metals but that would be asking to much at a time when prejudice and y2k are the major subjects. TOLERANT You may post anything you wish as long as you do not offend our fearless leader Bart Kitco. Freedom of Speech its WONDERFUL "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:27 - ID#43185)
T-bonds continue down,,,

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:29 - ID#31868)
Regulus, Namaste' and a tip of the hat to ya from the Island that is Long...a most
considerate response...duly noted and respected...yup..uh huh...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:31 - ID#28882)
@The Real Sam

Sorry bout that.

I remain,


(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:31 - ID#237299)
Bart @ Rich @ Survey
While I found Rich's comment boorish and *almost* deliberately designed to incite riot, I also thought that most adults would do as I did; shrug at his obvious poor taste and move on. I spent about 45 seconds shaking my head and returned to the issue at hand.

The inclusion of the "survey" shocked me a bit in it's thin skinned appearance. There have been MANY slightly off color comments about Irish, Scotts, Catholics, Mercans, Auzzies, Kiwis etc- yet none of these warranted a survey. I can only presume this must have been at the insistence of Farfel.

I agree with one of the other posters; I find the constant references to chugging and puffing more offensive. But there you see is the crux of the issue. Farfel finds anti-Semites behind every shadow, others find American haters, some see the forum dominated by Jews...and on and on.
Each one here, depending upon his sensitivity, can find someone offensive. If the banishment followed for each- the result would be a blank screen.

Mozel once asked a valid rhetorical question: How does one take issue with the political or defensive aspirations of Israel without being labeled an anti-Semite? How do I comment on a Woman's beauty without being slapped with a lawsuit? I find the whole cry-baby society FAR more offensive than any insulting comment.

Leave Rich alone- I'm sure this hurricane of controversy has chastened him enough.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:31 - ID#277224)
Charles Keeling--ARP
According to some of the comments in the discussion group
recommended by NOVICE,the results of the last drill hole
were not that spectacular and expectations were that the
price today would reflect that.????For what this is worth!!!
Thanks for the response.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:32 - ID#333126)
gollum @ bonds tanking
what do you make of this lady's comments?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:34 - ID#43185)
Chinese problems

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:35 - ID#30345)
Does anyone have an idea as to whether the EMU will be 10% or 15% gold reserves? And Bart I like the survey concept; it might have been better to let this particular commment die of ignorance.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:39 - ID#31868)
Rich, Namaste' gulp and a puff to fact lets have a second round...gulp and
a puff to none of my esteemed colleagues have put forth the question...I must...what is the other half of you?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:42 - ID#194311)
Old Gold
I was banned for pointing this out....albeit crudely.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:46 - ID#284255)
Global Nuclear Plants

Where do you want to live?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:49 - ID#246224)
My 2
Obey the rules or get tossed. Deal with it. They are the baseline for behaviour here. Forget analyzing motives. Objectively the post was in violation on a number of counts.

Rich, you screwed up. Whatever the reason, the post speaks for itself. Now go to the hospital and get that bullet removed from your foot. Oh, it WILL be embarrasing. But you da man who done it. Apologies are in order.

I suppose there will always be this kind of thing. Let it be elsewhere. I appreciate the cleaner air here. People here can get along and disagree.

Bart - This is not about "censorship" it is about respect. It is about maturity and the maintainance of a healthy community. Freedom and the freedom to express is no excuse for evil in any form. A relativistic world view will always devolve into a very negative tribalism and then into the power of death: Rwanda, Cambodia, Germany, Ukraine, Armenia.

Why is it that whenever someone is called to account for their lawlessness they always are defended on the basis of their rights rather than on the hard bedrock of their responsibilities? Rights and responsibilities are inseperable. Both must be exercised with gravity. Unfettered personal 'liberty' to do and say whatever one wishes often leads to other people getting killed .. and a string of like tragedies.

It all begins in our hearts does it not? That is where the cleansing must start as well. Oh, what then shall clean these hearts of ours?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:49 - ID#219363)
Equity Bull
Impressive rally for the past few weeks. Though I expected to see a rally, I hadn't expected to see 8700 again, just amazing. I had always heard that at the beginning of a bear everyone was given one more chance to get out, but I hadn't ever experienced it in real time, and so couldn't understand the way people would feel while it was happening. Now I see it, now I see why folks get "caught" in the markets when they take a down-turn, it's pure greed, and the markets let the bulls feel that they are being rewarded for their faith, that they were right all along, and so nobody gets out. This bull has been going on for a long time, it's a tricky tricky beast, and last year it even got everyone ready for the blunder we could be witnessing now by doing almost exactly what it's doing now, and moving to new all time highs after that. People have gotten comfortable again with their equity investments, and psychologically, that's exactly what you would have to have for the average investor to panic, when he or she suddenly sees the market turn after a rally like this and feels the spectre of death touching his or her shoulder, a sense of terror that it could "happen again" and worse. Suddenly, you glance at the graph, and you see the absurdity of the rally, how it went straight up, and what was a sense of super-bull attitude and new-high dreams turns quickly to horror. Who knows what will happen, but if the markets were going to drop significantly, what a beautiful set-up this would be, loading in the bulls and pushing out the bears. Who can say.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:50 - ID#43185)
She is very perceptive and I agree with much of what she has to say. I think the sell off may occur a little sooner than she does, but not bay all that much.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:51 - ID#288466)
November 6th

I see my name mentioned as a possible source of info on this. I must defer to SDRer, who has forgotten more than I ever knew on the issue.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:51 - ID#317193)
Tuesday and Wednesday...long gold then short S&P Dec.....
Well, looking like buying gold shares on Tuesday...with elections the markets should be up and gold down...then going short on the S&P on Wednesday. Not a large position in gold shares...just enough to be interested again. Any thoughts?

APH...what do your charts say? Am I crazy?

RSA gold shares? JD....?


(Mon Nov 02 1998 12:59 - ID#119358)
@'Ol Rich...........probably a pretty good feller..........uhHuH.........
just gotta' a little carried awaaaaaaaaaaay......kinda' like my pal who stood up in church, totally caught up in exuberollin', and confessed he'd had sex with a chicken....shame'o'shame....Elmer never did live in down........stupid little clucker.

Moi?.....I am without sin. yes....especially when it comes to public confessionals. But unfortunately,......Ricardo must be punished, otherwise, kitco loses desperately fought-for ground. IMHO. we are the standard.

I will only say this one time: I heartily raise my cup'o'tea ( sip ) and take an inconsequential pull off this generic yarrow ciggy ( puff ) to you all!!! myOHmy......we all do look so nice in our matching glen plaid...uhHuH.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:01 - ID#246224)
I am absolutely fascinated by the quoted source indicating that the Y2K test of such a major satellite is scheduled for the same day as the Leonid shower ( as a cover ) . Wow! These people ARE devious, aren't they! I will take whatever money I can out of the banks before then. TIA!!!

Looks like the infrastructure is indeed going under a piece at a time.

Mate, you'd better lower the price on your house and move that puppy along.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:01 - ID#284255)
Y2k Solution
Finally after all that looking. ^o-o^

I've located a Y2k Solution good for all computers.

In a related story, Cleaner Technologies, who's initial IPO went from 22 to 196.8 per share in 2 hours, has received buyout interest from Microsoft. "We expected this all along," commented Hawthorne. "I've already made a downpayment on an island in the Carribean."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:05 - ID#288466)
VIX.X now at 25, lowest since the top last summer

FEAR is practically non-existent.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:06 - ID#153110)
@John_D @Can of Worms
"Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties." John Milton, Areopagitica, 1644

Charles I had a head full of worms, to be sure. He imposed martial law and sent his soldiers to seize the gold in the treasury. In a modern fashion FDR did the same thing. His head was also full of worms.

A Mad Sovereign cannot be prevented from bringing on the bloodshed event that takes his head. For, bloodshed events done by his own hand always precede and provoke it.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:08 - ID#339274)
Due respect
FWIW Arz is on a tear ,77.Almost got taken out the second time
with my OEX this morning.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:10 - ID#33184)
The Vanishing Recession

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:10 - ID#194311)
Envy...i'm envious
how well you could sum up my thoughts.
This is indeed very fertile breeding grounds for real Panic. Twice now they have been "saved" by the beast...the next major downturn must take us to new lows....DJIA 6500?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:11 - ID#43185)
Great post! Success in the markets comes from learning how to ignore sentiment, psychology and perhaps even "gut feel". After all there are real professionals out there feeding one the news that gives him his sentiments. When you fell really good about the markets is when somebody who has a lot of clout with the media is selling out.

Warren Buffett comes to mind as a master.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:15 - ID#377196)
@ Bart - I very much respect and applaud your efforts
to keep this site from descending into a food fight forum. I found it depressing to see how astoundingly juvenile some of the people could be whom I had thought of as well informed intelligent adults. And I'd just as soon not have to wade through a lot of racial slurs etc to get to the wonderful posts on gold etc that I have become addicted to in the past months ( I'm a Kitcoholic for sure ) . I do feel that Lou Jan in his 11:15 said a lot of good things and certainly a lot of the problem is indeed that this site is supposed to be for goldbugs etc. I am glad to have some Y2K info as well as that seems relevant to the PM market. Just personally I'd say Rich should get a warning and not banishment this time around but that food fights and personal battle should be strongly discouraged. I'm all for freedom of speech but there's also the responsibility to make sure that it doesn't start to get dangerous. Hitler's freedom of speech ended up costing a lot of people their lives and in fact the first thing some strong one dimensional religious belief tends to do is start people killing each other. People deploring gays ended up getting a very nice innocent kid killed a few weeks ago. SO I do believe there have to be limits particularly in this day and age when communication is so fast and any nut case can get heard by impressionable uneducated idiots who then may take things to extremes. We live in dangerous times. Let's all be as tolerant as we can and enjoy the diversity of ideas and of populations in the world today without letting any "me vs them" ideas to become too powerful.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:15 - ID#194311)
Banking news....much shuffling of paper...papering the cracks.
Standard and Poor's says Latin American firms feeling credit squeeze

NEW YORK, Oct 26 ( AFP ) - Latin American businesses are feeling
the effects of a global credit squeeze, which is straining
refinancing efforts, the ratings firm Standard and Poor's reported
"Standard and Poor's is concerned about increasing refinancing
risk coupled with an immense amount of Latin American corporate and
infrastructure debt coming due over the next 12 months," the agency
said in a statement.
It noted that prior to October 1997, Latin American enterprises
could borrow at rates of about 2.50 percentage points more than US
Treasury securities.
By early October of this year, they were borrowing at spreads
approaching 12 points over Treasuries.

The Sound of a Japanese Bank Falling: Very Quiet
( CSM 30 Oct. 98 )

The 1980s was good to Japanese banks. The market was strong and the
banks were world class and had money to burn.
Now, it looks as if they lost a little along the way - some $600
billion in bad loans, according to the government, which has unveiled
a rescue package to return the banks to an even keel.
The bank troubles have produced a credit crunch that's squeezing
the air out of Japan's economic lungs. They have unsettled world
markets and will cost taxpayers here $508 billion, an amount nearly
equal to Canada's 1997 gross domestic product.
You'd think people might be mad.
But the government is letting banks evaluate their own health by
allowing them to appraise their assets at book value instead of market
value. This inflates the value of their holdings and makes the banks
appear healthier than they really are.
All this will allow even fragile banks to stay afloat. And while
this doesn't jibe with international demands for a swift restructuring
and cutting off of deadbeat borrowers, it does fit a Japanese emphasis
on equality and meeting the common good.
To be sure, some wrists have been slapped. In the past 10 months,
28 banks have replaced their presidents, though only five cite
mismanagement as the reason. The 17 largest banks have announced plans
to cut salaries and bonuses, as well as some 15,000 jobs.
The directors of the recently nationalized Long Term Credit Bank
( LTCB ) may face criminal charges for misrepresenting the amount of
debt they carried. Just the week before the LTCB went under government
control, it asserted it was solvent. When government auditors took
over, they announced that bankers had hidden $11 billion in bad debts
and that it was ``virtually insolvent.''

Citigroup falls on Salomon Smith Barney news

NEW YORK, Nov. 2 ( UPI ) -- Citigroup Inc. fell almost 4 percent in
value in busy trading on the New York Stock Exchange as investors
reacted tonews the banking and insurance giant is integrating its
Salomon Smith Barney unit with the corporate banking unit of Citibank.
At the same time the financial giant also announced the resignation
of Salomon Smith Barney chairman Jamie Dimon, who was also a Citigroup
Citigroup, a Dow Jones industrial component, fell 2 to 45 as more
than 9 million shares chnaged hands on the Big Board.
The company said it named Michael Carpenter and Victor Menezes to
head the merged entity, and that Deryck Maughan will become a vice
chairman of Citigroup with responsibility for developing and
implementing Citigroup's strategy while the two units are being
A Citigroup statement quoted Dimon saying that he was leaving because
``...this is a perfect time for me to leave and regenerate with some new
Citigroup said Carpenter, Menezes and Dimon will report to its two
co-chairmen and co-chief executives John Reed and Sanford Weill.
Reed and Weill issued a joint statement saying ``Today we are
integrating the activities of Salomon Smith Barney and Citibank
corporate banking and have named Mike Carpenter and Victor Menezes to
lead the combined operation, the world's strongest integrated global
investent and corporate bank.''
The Wall Street Journal in today's editions reported that, ``Soon
after the April announcement that Travelers Group Inc. and
Experts on Wall Street had been expecting Dimon to named Citigroup

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:17 - ID#246224)
Doesn't look like the Chinese have given up on thier old socialist ways of doing business: "banks ordered to make loans to enterprises and construction projects". I don't think I will hold my breath!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:18 - ID#290287)
not on-topic
Scientists read their journals and correspond and meet privately to learn about other researchers work. So why would they travel long distances at great expense to attend symposia if all interaction was strictly on-topic? At the big meetings I've been to, much of the activity outside the lecture halls was gossip, story telling and partying, does that make it a big waste of time and money? I dont think so.

Ok, I shut up now.
a gulp and ..
- sam

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:20 - ID#43185)
Betcha THIS gives a boost to oil

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:23 - ID#194311)
Mahathir...he may be crazy but at least he tells it like he sees it.
Mahathir: economic powers must act to regulate currency trading

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 ( AFP ) - Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad on Monday urged economic superpowers to act in concert to
regulate currency trading.
In a keynote address at a conference on the Asian financial
crisis, he said currency speculation and manipulation had to be
dealt with if the regional crisis is to be managed with any
possibility of success.
Mahathir imposed capital controls including a fixed exchange
rate of 3.8 Malaysian ringgit to the US dollar on September 1 and
later took over the finance ministry after sacking its head Anwar
Ibrahim, who was also fired as deputy prime minister.
Speaking shortly after Anwar's trial on corruption charges began
Monday, Mahathir said "it is clear that currency trading has not
done any good for the world, in fact, ( it ) has been the cause of the
present financial and economic turmoil."
"Unless currency trading is recognised as the root cause of the
present problem, corrective action cannot be made."
In calling for the successful management of the financial
crisis, Mahathir said: "Pussy-footing around will get us nowhere.
You will have to face the problem squarely and be willing to accept
the condemnation of the rich and the powerful."
Mahathir said currency traders were responsible for devaluing
"They precipitated the current recession in every country. They
are well on the way to bringing about a world wide recession."
He said currency traders should be registered and licensed in
the countries where they operate, adding that banks must cut the
level of funds they lend to hedge funds to reasonable levels.
In addition, the basis for changing the exchange rate must be
regularised, he added.
"Only a certain percentage change in the exchange rate should be
allowed for a given time," he said, adding that any rate exceeding
the percentage should not be allowed to be transacted.
Mahathir said the sellers must deliver within a specified period
the currency that they have sold.
He said an amount not exceeding a certain percentage of the
trade of a country concerned must be fixed as the maximum limit on
any currency deal on any day.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:23 - ID#288466)
Advanced GET late updates
Wave 3 in S&P almost achieved

Wave 5 close in Copper and Platinum

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:26 - ID#43185)
More banking news:

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:26 - ID#153110)
@Rights and Responsibilities @Kick Yourself Off
No responsibilities attach to rights. This is pure Rockefeller post modernist propaganda. If a right depends, it is not a right, but a mere privilege which may be amended or withdrawn by the grantor at his pleasure.

But acts have consequences for which the actor is accountable to those he harms.

A certain Allen ought to kick himself off this site for a while as he is condemned by his own judgement in the matter of a certain poster called rich.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:28 - ID#290202)

Thank you in advance!!!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:29 - ID#242325)
Action and reaction
I think the strenght of today's stock rally reflects the fact that some major indices have crossed their 200 day moving averages, touching off buy programs. My expectation that a modest correction would begin shortly was premature. But a few more days of this straight up action will set us up for something considerably worse than a modest correction.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:34 - ID#194311)
Actully my few snippets were collected on a news subscription service

which I have only just managed to get restored.
I was amazed at how much negative banking news was in this service. I have only brought across a sampling for bandwidth reasons, but as it is a purely computerised search engine it gets all the news not just what some editing type deems important. Scanning as objectively as possible it seems there are major movements in world banking circles, both trading and investment. The credit crunch is still on the way probably with an outrash of slashed credit lines in mid-late Nov as book squaring for the year end gets under way.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:34 - ID#369352)
ENVY - on the bull market
To see a fast forward picture of what you just described, look at the commodities trading...this kind of thing happens all the time, but it happens faster! Usually in Soybeans...were the beans make a top ( usually exhaustion top ) then sell off rapidly, then the bulls don't believe it's over so they come back in and buy the market, until it almost reaches new highs...then the hammer falls...straight down she time to get out graciously, just get out!!! Loosing all the way!!! This looks to be the fate of the Stock Market Bull vvveeeeerrrryyyy soonnnnnnn!!! Have fun at the party...the bus leaves at midnight!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:40 - ID#317193)
Thanks Tom...

Tom Young
(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:40 - ID#317196)
TYoung...if your right on the movement on Tuesday..
Go for it. You know if I posted the opposite THOUGHTS under a different moniker I bet I could always be right. IndeedyOoo


(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:43 - ID#25490)
Got Gold Rush?
12:31 well spoke, mate. You should speak to sharefin about the varieties and colours of Obsidian in his collection. I only know the black and grey/green obsidians of Mayor Island.

sam? not_sam? You guys posting under one handle now? Clones?

The "rich"est gold find in NZ was probably a one day rush on 5 January 1866 in the Main Street of Hokitika, on the W Coast of the S Island.
"One old lady resident squatted over the 40 yard lead and published to all comers she had staked out her claim..." Within a few MINUTES 108 oz of gold was found. Those who were too late for the first rush still gained 1 oz to the dish, washing up the road dirt at nearby waterholes. Soon the gold was all gone, leaving behind a mystery as to why so much gold was found in an isolated patch in the road.

It appears that one of the banks had lost a bag of gold dust containing 230 oz of gold about 3 months previously. It was in transit between Waimea at Hokitika by pack horse. ALthough the police searched the roads and bush tracks they found no trace of the missing treasure. The bag must've fallen into the muddy main street of Hokitika and trampled into the soil of the road by the passage of pack horses.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:44 - ID#333126)
the coming quarterly US bond auction
which day was it supposed to be and how much are they gonna sell?

hmmm....... how many buyers would there be of 30 ( ! ) year bonds in these conditions ...?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:46 - ID#350179)
Russia and Belarus set up joint parliament

On Monday, members of the Russian and Belarusian parliaments met in the Russian city of Yaroslavl on the Volga River, opening their session with the Soviet anthem.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:47 - ID#242325)
Now that Puetz has been silent for a hile perhaps we will see a sharp drop soon. LGB is right -- Puetz is a great contrary indicstor ( I think JP may join him ) When Puetz again starts to talk about a crash to 3000, time to go long in a big way.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:48 - ID#242325)
Now that Puetz has been silent for a hile perhaps we will see a sharp drop soon. LGB is right -- Puetz is a great contrary indicstor ( I think JP may join him ) When Puetz again starts to talk about a crash to 3000, time to go long in a big way.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:48 - ID#300202)
For those interested-Industry Canada distributing free lit.: 800-270-8220. In an effort to glean further info I mentioned Canada's martial law/RCMP Leave cancellation etc, etc. & suggested to her that the situation is extremely serious & that she herself should make extra efforts in preparation. After 5 seconds of silence-her response-"That's what we are being told"

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:56 - ID#43185)
Short term euphoria?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:56 - ID#290287)
Is an occassional tasteless joke still ok?
All the organs of the body were having a meeting, trying to decide who was in charge.

"I should be in charge", said the brain, "because I run all the body's systems, so without me nothing would happen".

"I should be in charge", said the blood, "because I circulate oxygen all over, so without me you'd all waste away".

"I should be in charge", said the stomach, "because I process food and give all of your energy".

"I should be in charge!", demanded the rectum, "because I'm responsible for waste removal".

All the other body parts laughed at the rectum and insulted him, so in a huff, he shut down tight. Within a few days, the brain had a terrible headache, the stomach was bloated, and the blood was toxic. Eventually the other organs gave in and all agreed that the rectum should be the boss. The moral of the story? You don't have to be smart or important to be in charge ... just an a**hole.

- anon


Ok, ok, I'm banning myself from posting for a couple of months.

- sam

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:56 - ID#31868)
oh my darlin, oh my darlin, oh my darrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrlin paradigm...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 13:58 - ID#413156)
Time to ban Pink Floyd's "The Wall"
In the Flesh
So ya, thought ya
Might like to go to the show.
To feel that warm thrill of confusion,
That space cadet glow.
I've got some bad news for you sunshine,
Pink isn't well, he stayed back at the hotel
And they sent us along as a surrogate band
We're gonna find out where you folks really stand.
Are there any queers in the theater tonight?
Get them up against the wall!
There's one in the spotlight, he don't look right to me,
Get him up against the wall!
That one looks Jewish!
And that one's a coon!
Who let all of this riff-raff into the room?
There's one smoking a joint,
And another with spots!
If I had my way,
I'd have all of you shot!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:00 - ID#266105)
some gentle reminders

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:00 - ID#153110)
Whoa ! From Hoss's Mouth.
Away, to prepare for the silent approach of secret process in the form law-enforcement and Y2K.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:03 - ID#31868)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:06 - ID#190411)
Flurry of activity in Dec Gold

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:07 - ID#316256)
To anyone who took excessive offense to what Rich said and are calling for his removal, I say your just a thin skinned weasel.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:08 - ID#284255)
I would watch it, but with a grain of salt.
Not that it would surprise me one bit.
I guess we'll find out soon enough.

I see too many snippets on the web
Turning out to be nothing more than web chatter.

There are an awfull lot of speculative minds
Creating galaxies of scenarios.

Especially amongst the email groups.
Soon a story gets twisted though many hands.

If it had an url to acompany it
Or some further proof I would take more notice.

Already here in OZ the info is starting to get around.
People are starting to talk about pulling money out.
And asking lots of questions.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:08 - ID#246224)
My good friend Mozel
I never said that rights should be contingent upon the prescribed accomplishment of responsibilities. What I said was that rights do not exist in a vacuum. Rights ARE balanced by responsibilities whether we acknowledge this or not. This is a similar couplet to 'actions and consequences'.

It seems that everyone these days pounds the podium for their "rights" but no one does this with regards to responsibilities. I believe this is symptomatic of our selfishness and disregard for others. No one every built a well formed family on the basis of rights without a coequal basis of responsibility on the part of the parents, which then is built into the fabric of the children.

I do not believe that governments can impose this from the top down. It can only happen from the heart. It is hard won and easily lost. We have lost this a great deal in the good ol' USA. We are reaping the confusion and destruction of those choices. But that is the bracing reality of choice .. you can choose to ruin yourself and others, as well as choose to help and build. Nothing insullates us from this.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:10 - ID#371229)
2 months ago I couldn't wait to vote for every republican that could vote Clinton out of office
but now with my mutual funds back on the up I am looking for loyal democrats. Gee whiz peace in the middle east, John Glenn in space,

and I am just feeling so good about my United States of America. Why

if the Dow is rising tomorrow as I go to the polls I may even volunteer to hold democratic banners at the polling sites. NOT!!!!!!{:- )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:16 - ID#269409)
Ixnay on Censorship
Can't help but weigh in. I'm with Obsidian. Poltical correctiness speech cops, are far more noxious a thought than someone's ill advised attempt at humor.

Also the "survey" wording is seriously flawed, therefore meaningless.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:16 - ID#300202)
Silence is gettin' louder. Horsemen's hooves gettin' louder also. Interesting that the grunt employees of our Armed Forces that I have spoken too & I mean very frank discussions know not what they do. Made it a point last week to speak to a Mounted Police spokesperson who only admits to a vague idea to his personal knowledge on Y2K. A close relative at Revenue Canada knows nothing, bank employees know nothing more than the term itself & so on-oh yeah-this also includes our local Fed Politician who has now addressed a fax to me saying-"Yes-it is a concern."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:18 - ID#424394)
Sick & tired of some ethnic groups taking offense and being deferred to
Americans are slammed and are expected to take it! Russians lost more people in WWII than any other group. The "Holocaust" killed MANY other ethnic groups and people of different "persuasions" but god forbid that the it be painted as anything but a jewish disaster. There have been MANY genocides and ethnic cleansings - including some in America but do we have survivors of those groups getting the deference jews get? The endless defensiveness, and preferential support thereof, of one group to the exclusion of other persecuted groups runs the extreme risk of alienating people who would have overlooked ethnic differences. I can overlook ANY ethnic or religous group's differences until they get in my face by taking offense and every perceived insult. Such overly sensitive defensiveness exacerbates the problem, accentuates the differences and polarizes society. It is okay here to pick on leftists, fundamentalists, liberals and nationalities of every sort but ONE group instantly reacts and gets preferential deference when they feel they've been insulted - even when no insult was intended.
Unfortunately, instead of the fart in the theater being ignored and disipating in silence, this argument will dominate this forum for the rest of the weekend.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:20 - ID#335379)
Hello Allan: Well put. "No insulation from this reality"
Many such principles are indomitable. CG's are often telling us that they are the insulation and unfortunatley many believe against reality. It will have a great price.
Should I be loading up on SnP Puts? Only $4 Dec. 900.
Nicodemus, Waiting, waiting for the the golden Mount St. Helens

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:30 - ID#212323)
Stepping up to the plate...
"Savage ( ????????????????????? ) ID#290202:
ARE THE EMU RESOLUTIONS NOV. 6th??? ANYONE??? SDR'er??? Thank you in
OK, here is enough to get you started:
Voting in National Parliaments or Referenda on EMU has been scheduled on the agenda for Late 1998. Even the States did not ratify the Constitution for the USA together in the same year. Perhaps these things get easier with time?

got patience?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:31 - ID#43185)
Might want to look into wheat futures

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:36 - ID#335379)
Hello LGB. Meet me offline. Don't foget the dash

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:40 - ID#344389)
December Gold down -$2.80 @$290.90
Gold stocks seem unconcerned?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:42 - ID#433172)
Gold sense..good sense
Take a gold mapleleaf and a Pt one and put one of them into another persons hand and ask them what it is. Our results here have been surprising. Maybe there is some quality in gold we are responsive to?

I have advocated the gov just print the money and avoid the interest paying for years, nobody wants to listen around here. Take whats saved in interest and distribute it to the have-nots on a equal basis, it wouldn't be anymore inflationary than paying interest, and it would subsidize the REAL economy instead of the finnancial section.

The REAL economy is starving for capital while the corporate assets are inflated. So captitalizm withers at the root.

Tempest in a teapot again, how serious can a little one liner be? I thought well on the survey and restraint should be imposed on diatribe, but Rich's comment was not that. F* above all others should keep out of it. OK, whrere are you RJ. I live in the real world and a guy called me a Honkey right to my face. I trhought , what a fool, the jokes on him if he thinks I give a damm. He's probably sober by now.

Interesting split of opinon here, religous posters condemm, most of us don't care, about the Rich thing, that is.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:42 - ID#377196)
Comments like Rich made have never bothered me on this site. The
only things that did were the LONG food fights during which people
attacked other people in a most childish way.

I do not think Rich should be banned for his remark which was at least
half truth/half joke. Had he gone on and on and started up with another
poster and that went on and on and got into personal attacks then I would object. Strongly.


Thanks, GD

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:43 - ID#266105)
BOJ intervention in Tokyo money market

But when private banks started to slash lending
after last November's financial turmoil, the central bank
began buying commercial paper to inject liquidity into the
financial system. By the end of September, it held 5,612bn,
worth 40% of the market.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:48 - ID#371229)
weighing in on poll topic- our preconditional agreement never granted us unlimited freedom of speech
. I would rather have freedom of expression than censors.

However, the netiquette guidelines specifically request that this not be done, and I agreed to that precondition as part of my right to post, So given the choice of non-censored freedom of expression and adhering to my honor given pledge I must chose the latter, and I feel if we are to operate with any honor we are all bound by that initial pledge or it is meaningless. Yes I can see that this post is an attempt to be humorous,

but that has no bearing on my point of honor as to our pledges. So in sum those of you who say this is allright I must ask do you mean you claim the right to rescind your pledge?

Perhaps we should all ask ro reread the inital agreement we consented to when Bart granted us use of this forum to express ourselves.

There really has been a lot of good posting on freedom of speech

vs. censorship but to sum up my point we never agreed to free speech

in our original preconditions giving us the right to post here.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:52 - ID#25490)
Late breaking salty news
I heard on radio that there is panic buying of both salt and onions in India.

Got Spice ( girls ) ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:52 - ID#350179)
Millennium bug conference planned for nuclear industry

"Computers have been integrated into nearly all aspects of nuclear installations," which means that problems with the changeover to a new century on January 1, 2000 "could potentially affect activities such as maintenance schedules, control and monitoring systems, security systems," the agency said.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:53 - ID#377196)
One more thing.........
It is becoming obvious to me that most of you posters and lurkers
are not buy enough gold and gold shares. Otherwise the prices would be
rising. It is time to sell your houses, cars, wives, kids, parents,
grand parents, and wine collections.

This should at least get gold up a few dollars enough to get the
shorts covering.

Or maybe they would just short again and smash us all to the wall.

This gold market is getting on my nerves. It is also putting me to sleep.

I am getting tired of being a contrarian. It has cost me too much.

I am beginning to see and understand why people just go along with
the flow of things. I just was not born that way. Maybe next time.

Thanks and go gold, please, GD ( I hate to be reduced to begging )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:56 - ID#317193)
Gold and the S&P....
I love it when a plan starts coming together....maybe $285 by Wednesday? Dec. S&P resistance @1120??? Will it be pushed above for election day? Starting to get excited. Anyone want to venture a guess? Am I crazy...would think APH would be salivating about now. bbml

Tom and Tom

(Mon Nov 02 1998 14:57 - ID#219363)
Wonder how the BOJ is planning to fund buying up all this corporate paper, hmm, how are those treasuries doing on the market today ? Kinda makes you sit back and think for a minute.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:10 - ID#212323)
Too busy to add beatings to this dead horse, but here's a swift kick in passing...
This "freedom of speech thing." Remember, what takes place at Kitco need not be confused with what takes place on Main Street. Bart is running a business. Ultimately he must do what is right for himself while recognizing that in running a business you try to do what is wanted by your customers. Not always easy to draw the line.

got conflict?

Further, if you read at the top of the page, not only is a certain 'code of conduct' requested, beneath that Bart ( and Co. ) states:
"Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of
this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any
statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of
the information provided." Wouldn't the occasional ousting of a poster tend to prove the contrary?

got conflict?

Perhaps the "survey method" is Bart's most palatable solution to his particular variety of conflicts. Each business is unique. Remember, this is NOT Main Street. Given the particular philosphical bent common to most people with "investment" interests in gold, the manner of resolution becomes especially accute. We tend to come down firmly on the side of idealism, perhaps?

One thing is clear, the visiters to Kitco want to maintain the high level of discussion found here. Have you seen the quality of dialogue to be found at any random discussion group/chat site? Yikes! Unacceptable behavior earns punishment, yet who's to match the degree of chastisement with the degree of offense? I'm certain that this is a role Bart would rather not play...babysitter.

I might suggest that the survey method me slightly altered to serve as the Kitco stockade. This form of public shaming might give the errant poster some appreciation for the gravity of his misdeed. But then, it might backfire, as the fringe comes out of the woodwork to compete for the Stockade Hall of Fame.

Was I offended by this? Mere words do not trouble me, unless they waste my time. Only when followed by actions, or reactions, is there reason to dwell upon the issue. There has been time wasted ( both reading and now writing related posts ) and a cosmetic change to the site. And the drum beats on...

got frustration?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:10 - ID#433172)
Gold Dancer
I have enjoyed reading your posts and you9r psychic support as a confirmed Bug. Hold on, I bought Pt for the last two weeks and the supply has dried up...starting the last week of this month I will be buying gold again, lots.

I've talked to my kids but they are all aflame with " let the good times roll" and are investing into the pleasure principle bigtime. They are tierd of hearing about wheat, and gold. Not much can be done abouyt that

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:21 - ID#229207)
Hand wringing among the bears
It's our turn to wonder, "Are we doing the right thing? Maybe we're wrong! Maybe you can create money out of thin air and live on a credit card, indebted to foreign nations, and support stocks at 40 or 120 or 380 times imaginary future earnings, with impunity forever."

Or maybe the stock market was discounted for a bunch of events the Fed and G7 have recently suggested will not happen: Brazil blows up, Asia gets worse, Russia gets worse, and rates will rise. The bulls are convinced that they have the Fed, G7, and God on their side. Imagine their disappointment when they find that the Fed, contrary to popular belief, is not in the business of supporting the equities markets, that no one wanted Russia to default but there was nothing to be done about it, and God loves a good joke as well as the next guy. Brazil ain't getting the money without the reforms, and the reforms are not exactly a done deal. But you'd never know it to look at the markets ( not the Brazil market, of course, the government is buying that one up. )

I'll stay my ground and look them in the eye. I see fear.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:26 - ID#240248)
Great Article on Japan
Had done some digging a couple of years ago with some fellow investors and concluded that Japans bad debt picture amounted to about 1.2 Trillion, nice see this fellow ( and others ) confirming 1 Trillion plus anyway.

In keeping with tradition remove "en" from golden and have a look at this article:

There is a distinct possibility that the Japanese government drags out the recovery of their own economy by interceeding when direct market action would clean things up quicker.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:27 - ID#242325)
Double Top?
Beginning to wonder if we will soon see double tops in the Dow and S&P. Looks like an even money bet at this point. Dow 9300 by Thanksgiving; Dow 7000 by Valentine's Day?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:30 - ID#266105)

There were a few points in there found interesting,
particularly the 'quasi-recycling' yen to the banks
for buying dollars from foreign banks which used the acquired
yen for buying the banks yen-denominated bills. That ploy has
apparently run its course so they're now cutting out the
intermediary steps with the central bank directly buying
the banks' paper to meet their funding needs. What was
before implicit and masked has become more obvious and

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:35 - ID#119358)
@hurricanes, tornados do it........why don't we do it?....levels of damage........
Category day of featured prelude posting ( like rich's today )
Category week of no posting rights.

Category month of no posting rights.

Category 4....criminal negligence with intent to kill....six months of no posting.

Category 5...First degree mass murder of all of mankind....permanent banishment.

( posters and lurkers vote on appropriate category of the offense, highest percentage category dictates the sentence...bart & co. rounds up the suspect )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:36 - ID#213135)
TYoung - Here's what it looks like to me...
S&P - There maybe a short term top today or tomorrow, but I don't see a correction any deeper then 1085 - 1080. We are in a seasonally positive time until the end of the year. We have an advance decline which 3 to 1 just the opposite of the down market we just experienced. I'd be a buyer on any pullbacks into the 1085 area. The market could be at 1250 by the end of the year. Wollonchuck talks about a wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 etc, we maybe entering it now. I wouldn't consider shorting it until the momentum shows signs of slowing down.

Gold - Now looks like its going to work its way down into the mid 280's and possibility the gap in the low 270's.

Silver - This one looks like its finally going to roll over and head for the major support and objective of 4.40. If it gets down to 4.40 this would be an area to consider putting on a major core position for the next move up.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:37 - ID#286230)
BART's Poll
For an appreciation of the Poll issue --albeit 1996 legal opinion -- all would be and current lawyers go to:

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:39 - ID#269409)
Consumer confidence?
And here they told me consumer confidence was dropping....

, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:45 AM ET Nov 2, 1998

WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) -- Americans spent 0.2 percent more than they
made in September, the Commerce Department said Monday. It was the first
time Americans had dissaved in at least 39 years.

Personal spending grew 0.5 percent to $6.067 trillion annual rate in
September while personal disposable incomes rose 0.2 percent to $6.055

It is the first time the personal savings rate has been significantly negative
since the government began tracking the data monthly in 1959

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:40 - ID#219363)
S&P: I sure hate to hear you say that *grin*, but thanks for posting it, you've been right on some many different occasions.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:42 - ID#71231)
EJ - Bearish on the market..wrong right?
As bullish sentiment turns to hysteria , actual investors who have something left to sell are keeping out of the market, with the exception of small caps ( see all stock index charts but gold exhibit the ascending wedge pattern - actually wedge within wedge within wedge ) .

All - repeat: ALL - the buying is overflow from stock index futures buying and from the few remaining shorts covering their burnt back ends.

For evidence of this, look at - the premium index being above fair value corresponds to all the sharp rises in the indexes. There is no correlation to reality, only to presidential appearances and press releases of the "we are doing something" variety. The perfectly coordinated timing of the shots up in the premiums with white house appearances is well beyond suspicious. There is an obvious manipulation. Who is doing it? I don't know. I venture to guess that it is PPT money - with well connecteds picking up on this and playing along. If this is the case, it should stop immediately after the elections.

For some comparison, I looked at the price/volume behavior of the hong kong market during the HK government intervention. The behavior is remarkably similar.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:45 - ID#288466)
Today is the day for a Fibonacci turn on the DOW and S&P
Actually it was 10/30 for S&P and 11/1 for the DOW

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:46 - ID#269409)
@ Old Gold.... double tops
I think there may be truth in what you say. The present euphoria that the world economy may not melt down after all, and that the FED will ease rates yet again....

may reasonably dissolve as next quarters earnings come out, the economy continues to slow, Y2K fears continue to escalate, and some "new" economic crises erupts somewhere ( Brazil and China being TOO obvious to be the candidates ) .

There is a lot of bond selling today...

I think we'll have an April downturn in 99, similar to the April 97 downturn/correction/buy opportunity. SOmething we've now seen 3 times in 2 years. Overall we'll have a flat but volatile DOW,trading in the 7000 to 9500 region for many months to come.

Buy all big corrections and sell all big rallys!!! ( Especially buy any large correction that is accomplanied by the return of Puetz with new Eclipse induced "crash" to 3000 predictions!!!! )

Oh yeah...Gold..... ASB

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:52 - ID#373403)
Read this is Jerry Seinfeld voice
It wasn't that the hedge funds were overlevereged. It wasn't that Asian governments led industry into unprofitable sectors, ignoring free market rules. It was not a general global overproduction causing Japan to declare itself on the edge of a deflationary spiral. It wasn't that Russia did not really turn over industry to the people and failed to set up laws to guard free trade.

It was interest rates! They were too high. There, now thats fixed, we can go to 10,000.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 15:59 - ID#424394)
This is my last post.
My contributions were not worth much anyway. I've asked Bart to delete my handle, password, e-mail address and posting priviledges so that I won't be tempted to put my 2 cents in here anymore. I've also deleted my archive of Kitco posts and wrote over them so they are not recoverable.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:16 - ID#253431)
To Silverbaron and APH
Silverbaron - look what you started - people are seeing declining wedges everywhere. John Glen will likely report having seen one before its over. THE ECU/GOLD WEDGE will be threatening its bottom with today's move- I rather think at this point we'll break out to the downside as I frankly have noticed declining wedges tend to do especially when the break out is toward the end of the pattern.

APH- good to see your comments again. I was very suspicious of the metals charts and trimed way back today. The XAU going out near it s lows at 73.63, today isn't a good signal. Best case that can be made there is the index will consolidiate here and work around such that the 50 day moving average gets above the 200, preparatory for a upside break out. Failure of oil to hold an advance was also sufficent to me to kick out the oil service stock I had bought last week at a profit.

APH, I sure hope we see your projected $4.40 silver. Frankly, if Silver were really that weak I would have expected a little more down today.

Regarding stocks - One good analyst I had followed, Weintraub, went bullish back on October 20th - wish I had been more aggressive in that arena. I'll go with you APH, buy this bull on a break.

Yahoo up 14 - and I diddle around with gold stocks????

Dow 10,000 before gold $315 - hardly a question.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:20 - ID#242214)
Japan selling us tressuries?
But Japan is not buying gold... yet ( en masse ) ! Perhaps EURO?
Yen at 114 to the USD.
What do you think about Japan recovery?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:20 - ID#269409)
@ Dead Horse...Bart's poll
More "thots".

1 ) "When did you stop beating your wife?" is equivelant to "Would you like to see someone who posts this kind of thing at Kitco banned?". The question doesn't offer overall context for the comment.

2 ) A better question might be, "Should posters who continuously and flagrantly violate Kitco etiquette guidelines, and have been warned once, be banned after further violations?"

3 ) Bart has a right to do whatever he wants with his always..and we should be thankful for the forum in any form. Constitutional "free speech rights" do not apply to this private, and non U.S. based site, though the concept is a valuable one on such a forum as this , I would hope.

4 ) It's quite odd to see just who it is that whined to Bart and precipitated this big debate. Perhaps the most flagrant violator of Kitco etiquette rules of all types, for all 1998. I certainly don't claim "purity" or innocence in this area...however, I'd never run to Bart with a request to censor someone else.

Personally, I've never thought of whining to Bart, no matter what may be said to me, or others that could be deemed "offensive". Are we not able to shame the guilty parties into quiescence without Big Brother watching? Are we all not "big" boys and girls here?

5 ) If we're going to get on this "Ban foodfight posters" I've seen discussed in a few posts.... I think it may be important to assure that such a recommendation is accompanied with the rule that FIRST VIOLATOR is the one banned....NOT the respondee.

In other words, when someone makes unprovoked pejorative comments to another participant....calling them a know nothing, using made up name calling handles in place of their Kitco handle, accusing them unfairly of fraudulent business practices..etc etc etc....It's the FIRST offender that ought to get penalized, not the respondee.

After all...I always hated that rule in school. You know the one. If you're caught fighting you get expelled. And that included punching boorish bullies in the nose AFTER They made an unprovoked attack on you!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:20 - ID#242214)
Japan selling us tressuries6
But Japan is not buying gold... yet ( en masse ) ! Perhaps EURO?
Yen at 114 to the USD.
What do you think about Japan recovery?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:21 - ID#413156)
Freedom on this forum is dirty word
Farfel s comments of last night only prove this man is off his medication and a great influence on Barts thinking .I will do what Mozel promised to do and grizz has just done. Goodbye

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:35 - ID#377196)
GRIZZ- I will miss your posts
I especially liked your 14:18 on special treatment for the offended.
People hide behind racial issues to advance their interests. That makes
them lower than low because they can't come out into the open and stand
on their own two feet.

Sorry you are going. Not that I agreed on everything you said but
your said your piece and that was important.

You might have erased all Kitco posts but I have copied your 14.18
and put it into my file. You see, you're now famous.

Regards and good luck in your investing. Don't be afraid to come
back and let us know how you are doing. GD

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:43 - ID#290456)
jims @ gold cycles

Should be bottoming in the next couple days.

User: hixson
Password: thmetal


(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:47 - ID#33024)
DJIA: bear not dead yet- Gold: ready to go

(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:48 - ID#317193)
APH...thanks dude...appreciate your comments....
Even if I jump and get my butt burned or it goes the other way...

I'll see what the next two days indicate. Again...thanks.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:56 - ID#229207)
The Hong Kong government openly purchased shares. Now of course they're stuck with all those shares and with the lingering impression that the forces of catastrophy that caused them to break with an ancient tradition of free markets will eventually re-assert themselves. Do you think the US is doing the same thing under the guise of a third party? I dunno. It's so darned hard to keep a secret on Wall Street.

I'm willing to read all sorts of things into the market when it ain't going my way, but not manipulation. Time is on my side.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 16:58 - ID#252150)
Grizz@I for one will miss you. I always found your posts thought provoking.
Also, to be quite honest, you were one of the very few who ever replied, let alone agreed with anything I ever posted. You are a free spirit & along with Mozel & a very few others are actually capable of non-linear thinking, regardless of the political in-correctness.

Chalk another one up for F*. Eventually if he has his way, his ethnic cleansing will be complete & Kitco will consist of only fanatical, paranoiac, Jewish GBs.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:00 - ID#71231)
Jims XAU dumping
Suspecting that an intentional dump was coming, and needing cash to maintain internet shorts through the ascending wedge blowout of today and tomorrow, I sold out all positions but for a couple of below book value juniors.

The Ascending wedges reach the apex tomorrow - and since the whole of the rise in the major indexes came from futures buying ( read mega margin ) , I expect the blowoff to be quick and enormous. I am certain traders have pyramided into the rally as investors were selling the underlying stocks.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:03 - ID#335379)
Hello LGB Meet me offline,

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:07 - ID#269409)
@ Nicodemus
Will do Nic...from the home front where my Kitco handle is "BUGal". ( Which of course stands for the letters "LGB" split by the elemental "AU" designation for Gold ....LAGUB.... read backwards... )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:08 - ID#219363)
You said "I'll stay my ground and look them in the eye. I see fear". I'll stand with ya, let's just hope the bull doesn't trample us both into the dirt. The bears have been second guessing themselves lately, even in the media, and they're virtually non-existent on the television right now. Of course, that does change quickly, wasn't a month ago you couldn't find a bull on any of the channels. I don't see a catalyst for a change though, unless there's something lurking out there that nobody has made public yet. I dunno. I'm short and I'll stay short.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:08 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Price of good last Wednesday: 295

Price of gold today: 290

Date: Wed Oct 28 1998 01:52
farfel ( Worth a Repost... ( did you pay attention, REALISTIC? ) ) ID#341227:
Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@REALISTIC....I hope you paid close attention ( see post below ) .

Hey, you forgot to let the entire KITCO forum know about my ONLY specific gold prognostication for the month. I guess you're slipping I'll just have to fill in for you in your absence.

Oh, by the way....COMEX eligible gold inventory PLUNGES 30% yesterday ( Oct. 27 ) !


Date: Mon Oct 26 1998 21:59

farfel ( It looks like the gold wars are about to begin tomorrow... ) ID#341227:

...and I was beginning to think we'd have to wait until 1999.



(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:08 - ID#430221)
Thanks CEAUX-DUTHEIL Stephane for your site with such a
complete selection of charts. Fun to read something in French too though I think anyone could pretty well figure things out just from the charts. Welcome here if you're new.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:09 - ID#269409)
Gold in trouble....
Investors less concerned about "safe havens" as they move back into equities from their cash and bond positions....

Monday November 2, 4:35 pm Eastern Time
( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )

Wall St stocks rally as investor confidence grows

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Nov 2 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks plowed ahead on Monday as
investors tapped sidelined cash for fear of being left out of a stocks rally sparked by
global policymakers taking steps to tackle financial turmoil.

Sentiment was further helped by a fresh batch of mergers, and expectations of more rate cuts here and abroad.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed unofficially up 114.05 points at 8706.15 in its first November session after
gaining 10 percent in October, its best one-month advance in 11 years.

The rally was broadly based, with advancing issues trouncing decliners by nearly three-to-one on the New York Stock
Exchange where volume was a brisk 756 million shares.

Money flowing into stocks was supplemented by a selloff in bonds as investors, feeling more confident, deserted the
traditional safe haven and put their cash into stocks.

``People are relaxing after the market came under pressure because of a lot of different uncertainties which are being
resolved such as Fed policy, Brazil, and the U.S. elections,'' said Courtney Smith, chief investment officer at Orbitex

``We have turned from being very nervous to being very bullish, and are now embarking on the next leg of the bull
market caused by concerted monetary easing around the globe,'' Smith said.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again before year-end, possibly at its November 17 meeting.
Britain's central bank is also expected to ease on Thursday.

The market remains buoyed by the Group of Seven's statement Friday that a new safety net will be put in place to help
countries before their economies come under heavy pressure.

``It's something pro-active and puts a better tone to the market,'' said Arun Kumar, senior U.S. equities strategist at
Lehman Brothers.

``The NAPM data also keeps the Fed still in the picture as far as easing goes,'' Kumar added.

The NAPM or National Association of Purchasing Management said Monday its October index of industrial activity
showed a further softening in manufacturing, falling to 48.3 from 49.4 in September. A reading below 50 implies
contraction in manufacturing.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:12 - ID#242214)
Netiquette is Netiquette as Sex is Sex.
As hipocritical is hipocritical....

Can we get ALONG...?

Rich should stay and simply do better...Next time.

Who is perfect here?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:17 - ID#372262)
GO RUSSELL 2000!!!!! UP 26.89% IN 3 WEEKS!!!
Forget about gold!!!! This Golden Prophet is goin' for the REAL GOLD--SMALL CAP STOCKS!!!!! Yowser!!! God I love this paper shuffle!!!! Take a whiz Grizz and stick around the insane asylum here at Kitco so's we can give each other some helpful therapy! lIKE--FORGET ABOUT THE METALS AND PUT YOUR PEDDLE TO THE PAPER MEDDLE!!!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:21 - ID#200235)
War on gold
and we are losing

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:22 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 2

Gold 827,089 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 74,259,632 + 1,200,485 troy ounces
Copper 70,693 + 1,293 short tons

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:25 - ID#229207)
If the majority saw what was coming, they wouldn't be buying in.

The market rose to 9400 on wishful thinking. It may get back there again, if no alarming events occur to bring everyone back down to earth. No one knows. No one has tomorrow's newspaper. But it's fairly certain that the Fed cannot lower rates again in November, unless the stock market has dropped already.

The market is rising on confidence. An excellent time to take a few choice short positions. Buy on rumor, sell on fact?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:26 - ID#290456)
Altavista translator

For translation of a web site, enter the URL in the box provided and select the language pair - for example French to English

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:30 - ID#411320)
@Bart's kitco poll
Now, that I have everyone attention on this site-- let me make a comment regarding the statement I made 11-1-98...about what jew invented that bogus crash index ponzi game For the goys. Thank God I am only half Jew!. The financial market has and always will be a ponzi game--the greater fool than I theory. There probably would not have been such a ruckus made had I defined the perpetrators ethnicity as Italians, Indians, or Greeks, or even the politically correct red neck which seems to get a lot of laughs from this site for some reason. I choose jew in jest because of my ethnic background. It appears to me someone is making a big deal over nothing. So take your bogus kitco poll, and shove it where the sun doesnt shine. It is a sad day when we have a person with a I.Q. Of room temperature making a decision on first amendment rights and what is and is not politically correct.. And as far as the vote goes. I have already voted and my vote is to delete this site off of the computer indefinittly. The rest of you fight for your freedom, stand alone with it the price of gold will always shine bright, Good bye my fellow gold and freedom lovers. .Remember with the suppression of my rights by this site comes the suppression of gold. Dont let tell you your thoughts, and whats good for you.  Be brave when others are afraid and be afraid when other are brave. YOU WONT HAVE BIG DADDY RICH TO KICK AROUND ANYMORE.

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:30 - ID#242214)
JAMES Demands New Poll!

"only fanatical, paranoiac, Jewish GBs"???

Oh, oh, looks like we need another poll today. : )

How much more can Puetz take?
How much more can Alan Greenspan dish out?

If Envy is staying short, I sure hope he started off tall in life. : )
Betting against AG is like a day without sunshine. Or gold. : )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:35 - ID#317193)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:35 - ID#225236)
Speech Police, Anti-Semitism, etc.
I have tried to resist responding to the whole censorship debate. After all, this site is supposed to be about gold and not about racial relations, someone's offended sensitivities, etc?

Isn't it interesting that every time such issue comes up, it is about the holly cow of the political correctness, the Anti-Semitism. One can write a thousand vulgar jokes about Irish, Canadians, Australians, Russians, Poles, Germans, Italians, etc, etc. No problem! But try to ask: Why is US financing Israel? Why are US media so pro-Jewish? But of course, you would never have asked that question if you weren't an ANTI-SEMITE!!! How dare you, you hate-monger you!!!

I can hear dozens of Jewish radio talk show hosts constantly ridiculing Christians, Protestants, Blacks, Hispanics, Russians, etc. If any of the groups being offended protest, yes, of course, they are anti-Semites.

I will dare to say that most characters throwing around the anti-Semite labels are in serious need of some treatment. I will dare to say that the current status quo of political correctness where any mentioning of anything Jewish is extremely sick and dangerous for Jews themselves. Why?

Quite simple: The whole idea of TALKING about problems ( aka Free Speech ) was invented so people could attempt to solve their problems ( real or imaginary ) by means other than VIOLENCE. Talking defuses problems. If some people are unable to solve their problems by talking it is also OK that they let themselves be known.

There is a crisis brewing in the US. A crisis always requires a scapegoat. Prominent display of characters of Jewish descent who can insult everybody at will, but are protected from ANY criticism themselves only guarantees who the scapegoat will be.

My best regards to all SANE Jews wherever they can be found. Many of them can be found here:

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:43 - ID#33184)
12:42 AM in South Africa and I'm responding ... why I ask myself ??
I participate in another forum on the net inhabited by professional traders/dealers - where egos are far bigger than anything found around here. Simple rules apply - you abide by rules of the host of the forum or you get kicked out immediately. All particiapnts are happy since by participating you implicity agree to those rules AND you ensure the presence of quality posts. The more the ratio of noise to signal the less likely participants are going to make the effort to use the forum.

Cheers for now!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:49 - ID#219363)
Signal to Noise
Why am I even bothering to post on this thread, I've tried to keep myself out of it. Just wanted to say that if you leave, Rich, I'll miss your comments, everyone knew you were just joking around. I swear I don't even have to look at the price of gold anymore, I can just get on Kitco and see if there is a big fight going on, if there is, I know gold hasn't been doing well lately.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:50 - ID#71231)
EJ - manipulation
When PPT talk came up, I thought it was irrelevant talk by p*ed off shorts and gold bugs.
Then I noticing that every time I switched on CNBC to figure out what news caused the SP futures to spike on my real time charts I found the president speaking, or a white house press conference declaring a new plan by the G7, G10, G22, or the IMF, or the chair of the FED standing outside the whitehouse saying "free money for everyone".

Then I went and read news URLs posted about this. At about the same time, I noticed that the price of indexes and some stocks on expiration matches the best price that would minimise option payouts. I realized how this would work, I find it utterly disgusting. Essentially, investors buy puts to protect themselves from market declines, to minimize costs, these are usually in the next months' expiration. The models the big house traders use to estimate risk of a market move in one direction or another are very primitive, they are used to determine how much hedging should be required. The equity derivatives exposure of the investment banks was 10 times their equity base according to a few articles in Barron's. And the analysis there showed how a 10% decline in the market was "safe" while a bigger decline was "a problem" and 25% or more, was disaster - as in negative equity. In order to prevent this, specific stocks as well as the market indexes are bought, and "expiration related trading" is what it is called on CNBC.

Goldman being the biggest trader and most connected to the white house ( via Rubin ) seems to me the most probable conduit for govt sponsored trading. How is it done? My guess is that banks are lent fed funds within the discount window with the express pupose of lending the money to Goldman - or whomever it is - and they use the money to buy futures. Another, is that gold is lent to them and they make covered shorts on the gold futures - using the money to buy SPx and NDx futures. The banks are covered either by US Gov guaranties, or by some other deal with the FED or the exchange stabilization fund.

Furthermore, a price keeping operation can be evidenced by a great rise in futures premiums whenever the underlying index falls below a certain "psychologically significant" number - e.g. dow 8600 last Friday.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:53 - ID#31868)
SilverBaron, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...a most excellent link on the translator
my friend...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 17:55 - ID#210282)
Why is the market heading up? Impeachment proceedings are not bullish
EJ, All: I'm adding my two cents -- some of my colleagues are saying to me -- 'I told you so -- the bull market is still intact'.

I see two things that are goosing the markets -- the thought that AG might lower rates again, and euphoria from the lack of impeachment proceedings -- pre election. Kenneth Starr is still collecting testimony on something, now that the Monica situation has loosened things up. A post-election bolus of news is likely.

I may be wrong, but I think we must beware the bull trap in the bear market -- just wait until some of WJC's cronies 'take the fifth'.

Gold equities look very weak right now -- either the 'calm before a gold bull begins', or trouble ahead. Didn't gold turn down before the general equity markets in October 1997? Mainland China is losing ground -- don't know how much longer they can hang on to their bullish plan. The Communist Chinese are notorious for their boom and bust cycles. And -- they have little to lose from a financial collapse and the loss of foreign investment money -- they will always have eager foreign investors to invest in one of the biggest economies in the world. Might have to wait a few years if there is a big bust, though.

Either way you look at it, this is not a time to be 100% long in the equities markets.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:01 - ID#350145)
silver and gold decoupling
i have been expecting that gold and silver will decouple at sometime with gold standing still and silver moving up. guess if i think that i should buy some spreads. silver just seems to be acting better. any thoughts?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:03 - ID#290456)

You're welcome, my friend....seems to me that it was posted here about a year ago - there are always a few words which do not translate, but the meaning usually comes through.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:04 - ID#269409)
@ Rich...not so quick
Don't be quite so hasty. I didn't see Bart post a single word implying that he intends to deep six you... simply the poll in response to a certain Mother of all Offenders of etiquette breaching, who whined and complained to him.

It would also seem the majority of the comments posted here on the subject, support free speech, your included. Yes unfortunately there are those few who are quick to try and renounce somebody ELSE's speech.....

And yes you're right. Gold and freedom, go hand in hand. For a so called enlightened "minority" ( i.e. Goldbugs ) who are fighting for personal rights and freedoms ( i.e. "real" money being Gold and less Govt, fiat currency AKA power ) ...for a group that purports to be the few, the proud, the contrarian thinkers...

it's unfortunate that one single bad apple can once again poison the barrel so easily. ( And I'm not referring to YOU as that apple... )

Let's not forget who, what, when, and where the last incident like this ocurred. ( March, same instigator, same disruptive outcome, and some innocent bystanders who spoke out strongly against anti semitism but in favor of free speech, deep sixed )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:07 - ID#269409)
@ mole.....Silver / Gold decoupling
I think they decoupled long ago. After all, silver is showing a gain if we look back 12 months, whereas Gold is indicating, quite a fat loss. This ratio however, has lessened rather than grown over the past three months or so.

Going forward, most of my PM bets are on silver. ( But I don't like today's Comex inventory numbers much... )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:07 - ID#290456)
jims @ WEDGEucation of Kitco

Looks like gold is still in the box, er wedge, after today's move.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:10 - ID#412286)
The mkt upmove was planned a month ago. The surprise Fed lowering 40 minutes before the close and after gold closed tells the story. The Gold suppression team is hard at work in the derivative market. They will crush gold this week. Look FOR a STUPENDOUSLY STRONG EMPLOYMENT NUMBER on Friday. All part of THE regaining of CON fidence. The US economy is the stock market and if it goes look out depression that will make the 30s look prosperous. Just ponder the debt and the chain defaults with a loss of confidence and a govt that will have to print trillions to meet its obligations. The current bailouts are an attempt to arrest the snowball that is rolling across the globe. The dam will burst within three months IMHO.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:11 - ID#290456)

I would suggest watching the gold/silver ratio for
a break of the uptrend channel of the last few
months. The last time I looked at this, a break
below 55 or so ( if I recall correctly ) would be a
breakout in favor of silver.

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:13 - ID#242214)
ORO - "When PPT talk came up, I thought it was irrelevant talk by p*ed off shorts and gold bugs.
ORO - "When PPT talk came up, I thought it was irrelevant talk by p*ed off shorts and gold bugs"

If you believe this, you weren't paying attention. Greenspan all but
ADMITTED that the Federal Reserve has been dealing with a "contained
depression" since at least 1993. He SAID so. Last year. Couched it in terms of "anomolous behavior", "unreliable measurements of M-2", etc.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:20 - ID#238422)
Bart Kitner
Mr. Kitner,

Your site is very good. You got some
guys jumping on you today...I think they
are wrong whatever the initial reason has been...

Wish you luck and success. Will stay with you
until you feel that you can not tolerate me any more...

Very truly yours, Oris.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:22 - ID#269409)
Clinton...apply to infested area
Important info. left out of public version fo Starr report. Hey Bill... if Ken STarr was REALLY out to get ya he'd have talked about your herpes....

MON NOV 02, 1998 04:52:08 UTC


**World Exclusive**

White House intern Monica Lewinsky told Linda Tripp that President Clinton
would cancel dates with her when he was flared with blisters, the DRUDGE
REPORT has learned from multiple sources in and out of government.

"He would tell her to stay away, that he didn't want to see her for sex when
he was flared-up," one source with direct knowledge of the situation

Any and all references to what Monica Lewinsky was told and possibly saw
regarding President Clinton's health were redacted from public versions of
information released with Ken Starr's impeachment referral.

The shocking detail is one of the best kept secrets on Capitol Hill and
could explode during impeaching hearings.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:22 - ID#194311)
OK...FIGHT NIGHT...I've had it!
farfel, me and you.....outside.....

rich, there's a place to deal with this "big-brother", K2.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:25 - ID#373403)
To all those who say that Jews attack free speech while all other attacks on other minorities go undefended, I say show me when another minority has been smeared on this site. I do not see derogatory comments about Italians, Blacks, Mexicans, Asians, Germans, etc., only the occasional one about Jews. So your arguement does not hold up because it does not seem to happen.

I do remember over a year ago someone making racial jokes about blacks and they were hounded into compliance, by myself included ( I am Jewish ) . It may seem thin skinned by some of you who have never been a minority, secretly hated by many people who publicly profess indifference, but to the minority, racial comments and open persecution are but a difference of the current political mood. Maybe walk a mile in someone elses shoes before you espouse that one world stuff.

Steven Pollack

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:28 - ID#320136)
To get off topic momentarily --- let's talk
about gold.

Actually, the way the yellow has been performing --
today anyway, it's just as well we have this 'rich' topic,
another venue in which to vent our deep frustrations,
wouldn't y'all agree?

Posters and lurkers will continue to dodge the malevolent
instigators who insist on taking jabs and potshots ( be they
in failed attempts at humor or otherwise ) at others who do
nothing to draw forth such insolence. It seems to occur
quite whimsically with a seemingly willful intent to be
hurtful and insight ire.

Many of us will proudly refute these obtuse and
nasty provocations, and justifiably so. However,
there ought to be a few simple rules that disallow such
comportment, and they should be firmly adhered to if this site
can contintue to flourish with an abundance of keenly
insightful musings and meanderings as concern the pm markets.

I agree wholeheartedly with Allen ( USA ) in his argument
for freedom to necessitate responsibility. This
can be seen in terms of any social situation. There is a
legal code of acceptable behavior at all levels of society,
and rightfully so. Should elementary school children be
exposed to negative influences that are derived from
another's 'right' to cuss and offer disparaging remarks in
their presence be they about ethniciy, religion or pornography --all in
the name of freedom?? WHAT ABOUT LISTENERS' RIGHTS?
Yes, of course one can skip over these disparaging remarks,
but first they must be digested in order for them
to be determined as caustic. Should "anything go", so
that one misguided misanthropist among thousands of morally
responsible individuals may be granted the right to realize
the ultimate pursuit of his or her own personal 'freedom'?

I think not.

The food fights which take place with unrelenting regularity,
and I'm sure I speak for most of us here, ( except of course
those who initiate and prolong them simply because they
crave a wider audience in order to continue to satisfy their
childish quirks ) when I say I find them to be obtuse,
redundant and insipidly inane.

Kudos to Allen ( USA ) in his 14:08, Goldilocks and others who
recognize that respectfulness and common decency should
play a conspicuous role in an auspicious forum such as the one Bart has provided us with here.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:32 - ID#286230)
Thanks very much for directing me to the appropriate sites for the info I was trying to find. I have spent about 4 of the intervening hours plowing through all of the stuff and have an list of things to do that won't get wasted if the whole YK2 problem proves not to be a problem locally.

In Toronto the most difficult thing to find on Jan 1 2000 is likely to be heat if the electric power shuts down. Other than that possible problem I think all will be under control chez Selby.

I see that in my absence gold is down a little over $2 and 2-3 posters have decided to leave and never come back because they were give the opportunity to answer or not some questions in a poll. Amazing how giving people an opportunity they can pass up leads to such extreme reactions. Wonder what would have happened if the planned use for the poll had been included. Poll seems to have disappeared at the moment.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:36 - ID#433172)
Who is perfect aroung here? I am. I will let you in on the secret to perfection and you can be too.

1. Always make up your own mind based on the most empirical data you can find.
2. Give any sorce of information a hearing, no matter how ridiculous, like now.
3.Always let your mind slip into friendly territory whenever possible.
4. There are 39 furthur steps to perfection and you will find it easily if you begin with the 1st three.

Hate to see people leave, nobodies bit yet. I do think the poll was useful in clearing the air a little and giving everybody a chance on the soapbox.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:38 - ID#269409)
@ Lou - Jan
I agree completely. Political debates, televised speech forums, legal arena's, radio talk shows, Kitco Gold forums...

All these places should require a sanitized, civil, uncontentious, Mr. Rogers Neighborhood kind of behaviour for all involved. All advocacy or opinion, should be voiced and written at a level such that the sensibilities of our pre-schoolers would not be offended.

This is the world the Clintons and their ilk have long advocated. So glad we can all agree it's the right kind of world for us.......I can hardly wait to see this concept implemeted across the board in all avenues of media.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:40 - ID#229207)
French site posted earlier partially machine translated
"Dow-Jones it is run up against against the his strong zone of resistance 8400-8560
points ( side resistance chartist and moving average to 200 purses ) , and seems to set
out again now with the fall. The correction is it finished or in is only on one
intermediate level?

"Dow-Jones could trs well to have finished his technical correction hawser at 8560
points because it reached simultanement the moving average with 100 and 200 purses
( return on moving average to validate the break of it, before new phase of fall? ) .
It should be noted that the moving average with 100 purses is currently cutting to
the fall the moving average to 200 purses. If an impulse depression takes place at
the same time and that level 8100 points is not used as support. Then this technical
correction would be beautiful and finished well, the market will be then ripe for a
fall of about 2000 points even less."

Har, har. Humans still do human language translation lots better.

How about this.

"I want to buy gold now when it is cheap and sell it later when it is expensive."

I translate it to French and then back to English. Comes out like this:

"I want to now buy the gold where it is cheap and to sell it later when it is expensive."

Close but no cigar. ( Close you but no cigar. )


(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:41 - ID#429363)
I think that the real contest is NOT $315 Gold or Dow 10,000, BUT rather $250.00 Gold OR DOW 10,000 FIRST?? That would be very tough for me to answer, but I'll go with gold at $250 before DOW 10,000!

Maybe $250.0 Gold or $4.00 Silver?? Which First??


P.S. - At some point this madness will end, but not yet is all I can say.....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:44 - ID#29048)
Blast from the past...Kitco last year at this time.
Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 23:58

Neil ( Jo'Burg ) ID#38970:

Where are the men?


If you can keep your head when all about you

are losing theirs and blaming it on you,

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

but make allowance for their doubting, too,

if you can wait and not be tired of waiting,

or being lied about, dont deal in lies,

or being hated, dont give way to hating,

and yet, dont look too good nor talk too wise.

If you can dream, and not make dreams your master,

if you can think, and not make thoughts your aim,

if you can meet with triumph and disaster,

and treat those two impostors just the same,

if you can bear to hear the truth youve spoken

twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

and stoop and build em up with worn-out tools,

If you can make one heap of all you winnings,

and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

and lose, and start again at your beginnings,

and never breathe one word about your loss,

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

to serve your turn long after they are gone,

and so hold on when there is nothing in you

except the will that says to them: hold on!

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,

or walk with kings, nor lose the common touch,

if neither foe nor loving friend can hurt you,

if all men count with you, but none too much,

if you can fill the unforgiving minute

with sixty seconds worth of distance run,

yours is the Earth, and everything thats in it,

and - which is more - youll be a man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:47 - ID#350179)
+'Market of markets' Amex-Nasdaq union completed

That system -- an electronic order book -- will be launched as a pilot in the summer of 1999 and is expected to be in full operation by the second quarter of 2000.

+Ascending wedges ( may have to adjust my shorts; )

f* - quite a job, that.

Bart - if anyone gets a 404 on this please add me to the list.

I'll admit that I haven't contributed much as an analyst. I try to post the off-hand peripheral news item which *may* have some relation to the current market. I am an investor, and I found that my opinions were best left off the board because my wisdom has yet to mature.

I have tolerated breast-beating ( my religion is the best ) posts without complaint. Hint - I'm neither Jewish nor Christian - but I won't cloud the issue by drawing more circles as a target. I will align to varying degrees with Aurator's argument on the subject ( am ) and Grizz's indignation.

Bust a move Gold - long for now.

As another poster is fond of saying:

That is all.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:47 - ID#287114)
JTF Market 17.55
The market is heading north because of the Fed's 2 rate cuts.
The Fed dislikes bears,,,,makes it look bad.
I think there is an election coming up.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:48 - ID#269191)
The owners of this site have a right to demand civility.
The last time I checked this site was privately owned and not an
instrumentality of the government. Accordingly, the first amendment
doesn't apply here and the owners of the web site have the right
to demand civility as a condition of posting. If you don't like
the conditions, you are free to go elsewhere.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:50 - ID#320136)
Hate mongering on a gold forum? Absolutely! Wonderful
idea. What else pleases you? I am sure we would all
look forward to a 24-hour marathon of attacks on Puetz
and his toxic market calls, perhaps.

How about an ode to Adolphe Hitler, ( what a great guy--
hey, I can say that! ) while we're going there...
So appropriate -- after all, the Nazis were also in
favor of gold BIG TIME!

My oh my, this discussion has become so acerbic!
Let's have more of this, so that newcomers will be hit
with a barage of relevant info on the gold market.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 18:53 - ID#228128)
My analysis suggests a bounce is due soon. Do you think so or do you see new lows this week.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:00 - ID#269409)
@ Lou-Jan
No you've got it all wrong. We need to see all our Newspaper "Op ed" pieces all nicey nice in their treatment of politicians. Also, our local DA's should stop being so mean in their summations when they prosecute rapists and child molesters ( you wouldn't believe the meanness of the DA in the case I had to hear as a juror back in June.. )

And since you mention Hitler and all...We should have been "nicey nice" to him in speech, in opinion pieces, and in action, don't you agree?

As to lesser things....guys like Puetz...reality checks are abhorent to me. We should always be pretentious and phony in out treatment and response to folks like him. And to all ideaologies and even to folks who speak of market analysis ideas like "Full Moon crashes".

Looking forward to a "Romper Room" world......

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:00 - ID#156161)
LGB @ 17:09
I can vouch for contracting industrial activity as noted

at the end of your post. My firm is seeing industrial

facilities projects related to the computer industry halted

at different stages of design or construction as these

businesses slow.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:04 - ID#280214)
I have just about had it!
I nearly dropped out of Kitco three weeks ago for a variety of reasons.
but this latest flap is just about the last straw!

Kitco is an addiction, just as TV is. Even though Kitco and some selected TV programs are enlightening - both must be trimmed! Too much time has been absorbed by reading the Kitco posts. Drafting reply posts has also absorbed too much of my time. MUCH HIGHER PRIORITY for my time must hereafter go to regaining a purpose in life - a reason to go on living and fighting and to keeping my business's cash flow in the black until Y2K. The least I can do is keep the wolves from the door for 14 months. The P&L is beyond hope if I don't spend more time tending to this business. My sanity is beyond hope if I don't spend more time figuring out myself and getting personal priorities in order.

I am also frustrated with the endless, fruitless, academic talk on Kitco about Gold and money and manipulation of prices. Like spectators of football games - they talk and talk and few try to do anything or to help those of us who are trying. Thus, as some have suggested, I may give up on the Kitcoites.

Gold is a dead duck - relegated to collectible novelties and just another paper trading vehicle to gamble with. Even among so-called Goldbugs - there is insufficient support to return Gold to this role, even in the face of Y2K. Gold will not be commonly circulated and accepted money in
our lifetimes. Without widespread or gov't support it is dead. The world demand for money has outgrown its meager supplies of Gold and Silver. The powers that control the price of Gold and Silver will not allow their prices to rise to a level that would permit Gold and Silver to provide an adequate supply of money.To do so, these prices would have to be $50 per grain for Gold and $1 per grain for Silver ( in 1998 US dollars ) . Otherwise there just is not enough Gold & Silver to do even a tenth of the money needed for our current economies.

I still cherish the dream of commonly circulating Gold & Silver. But given minting costs and restricted Gold supplies and prices such a dream, I have finally realized, is beyond our reach. Nevertheless, I still dream and play with ideas for such a future. For Gold as commonly circulating money we or someone should pursue a way to mint and package for circulation ONE GRAIN of Gold which today should trade for US$1.00 and which could someday buy a week's groceries for 4 people. ONE GRAIN of Silver now is worth one sheet of decent paper but someday may buy a day's ration of basic food for one person.

Thus the futility of it all is 95% of the reason for trying to kick the Kitco habit.

But this last flurry over a post that included Jews was the last straw!
I have deleted my six-month archive of Kitco posts and written other data to the disk to make sure it is gone. I have thus reclaimed 200 megabytes of disk space.

Whether I shall turn in my nome de plume and leave Kitco I do not know.
I shall think on it tonight. I should not waste more of Bart's bandwidth now and perhaps in the future. The following posts express my thoughts and feelings quite well.

Petronius at 17:35
James at 16:58
Gold Dancer at 16:35
and Grizz at 14:18

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:08 - ID#269409)
@ Lou - Jan
One last but VERY important point. Since you pointed it out in your last post. Please keep repeating the OFT heard Clinton / left wing Democratic know...ALL critical speech is "Hate speech"...if it disagree's with YOUR ideas that is.

It should all be outlawed. And let's ban and burn all those books full of "Hate speech" ideas too... you know, the Bible and such. All that strident "sin" talk and criticism of mankind. Sheesh......

And websites like the "Skeptical Inquirer" that devote themselves to science and stridently critisize fakes, charlatans, snake oil ideas, bogus medical practitioners et al. I SURELY hope congress will soon pass laws banning such offensive speech.

After all...what harm could come to my kids if they believe crystals will cure their ailments better than modern medicine can? Surely such ideas and their proponents should never be roundly critisized or subjected to harsh peer review.

Ahhhhh, how I long for the world of "The Truman Show"

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:09 - ID#295111)

It's my turn for a few words on JEWISH BASHING. Way to go RICH!

There are "Good" Jews and "Bad" Jews. Yes, there really are bad Jews out there!! However, one thing is certain, they sure know how to stick together. Come on now. There are bad apples in every crowd.

I happen to believe that Jews "control" much of US policy and economics.
Infact, I'm almost certain of it. Does this make me anit-semetic?
I can name a whole bunch of Jews who own record companies, movie companies, beer companies etc and I don't even have to mention the name Rothschild. But I'll say it again, they sure know how to stick together.

I happen to believe that Israel has the nuclear bomb. And I also believe that of all the nations that have this capacity, it is Israel who is most at risk of using it to blow up the world...not the US, RUSSIA, INDIA or Pakistan.
So, does that make me an anti-semite?

I happen to believe that Hitler was part Jewish himself. I also don't believe that Hitler got rid of Jews because it was "totally" racially motivated. I believe it had to do with plain and simple economics. I **don't** agree with Hitler in that he had to kill Jews!!! So, does that make me an anti-semite?

I don't believe that we should only be sorry for Jews who suffered at the hands of the Nazi regime. I'm sick an tired of feeling sorry for Jews only. That's all I seem to hear about when it comes to who suffered in WWII. I found out that there are other people to be sorry about. Hitler didn't just kill Jews. He killed other too. He kill Nuns, Priests, Gypsies, etc. So, am I an anti-semite if I feel sorry for these people too. But you know, I'm most sorry for ***all*** the ***soldiers*** who died, including our enemies the Germans and Italians and Japanese.

I hear Ariel Sharon has been selected for a high position in the Israeli government. I happen to think Ariel Sharon is another Hitler. He's the worst butcher alive today. I think he's even worse than Arafat. So, again, am I an anti-semite for believing it?

In the end, it doesn't matter what you think. It's what I THINK and MY ABILITY TO EXPRESS IT!!!!!!!!!!! But it is also important that YOU are able to express yourself. Your attack of me can be just as important as your defense of me.

The best way to correct one's beliefs is through thoughtful debate. That's what Kitco is all about. To "**severely**" restrict and supress free speech at this site utterly nonense!!!

SO, MAKING AN ISSUE OF THE COMMENT MADE BY RICH IS REALLY OVERDOING IT. If you did not like it, say so in the forum so we can all learn from your wisdom. Technically speaking, perhaps the comment was not in line with "netiquette" rules. Perhaps he should get his wrists slapped, but RICH is no Bill Clinton. He should not be Impeahced. RICH is not an ASSHOLE. Bill Clinton is!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:09 - ID#72316)
I happened to see the post in question shortly after it's posting, and I remember thinking Oh Oh, this guy's in trouble.. I didn't quite get the inference but I let it pass figuring that That I just didn't get it.. I find the quotation of the bible and pitching of religous beliefs more to my dislike, yet the thread seems to deal with this on it's own.. There is no hue and cry to punish someone espousing, for example, Christian beliefs and sermons...


(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:10 - ID#210282)
Market Trends
Skinny, ROR: I agree that AG is watching gold with eagle eyes, and will suppress any serious gold bullion rallies to the best of his ability -- with a flood of derivatives trades. If interest rates come down fast enough to stimulate the money supply effectively to prevent a recession or worse, this will eventually stimulate gold's rise. AG can't prevent deflation with one side of his mouth, and suppress gold with the other.

If gold stays down after AG continues to lower rates, that just means to me that he didn't lower them fast enough, and big time deflation is ahead for the dollar. This reminds me of the 1992-1993 period where AG had no choice other than eventually let gold rise.

One of you made a point about an election year coming up. Yes -- time to stimulate the markets to make the economy look good for the year 2000 presidential elections. But -- is Kenneth Starr going along with this? Is everyone treating the Clinton impeachment proceedings with kid gloves to prevent a possible depression? I don't know - perhaps not. The Dems did not hesitate in going after Nixon due to fears about trashing the economy.

Also -- I think AG himself is now a 'lame duck'. If so, he may do what he thinks is right, not what is politically expedient. Just how much longer will Robert Rubin stick around, given the bad taste in his mouth regarding WJC? As far as I can tell, RR is sticking around because of concerns about the democratic party, the markets and the economy, not because of WJC.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:17 - ID#404246)
Cage Rattler

You said:

"I participate in another forum on the net inhabited by professional traders/dealers"

Please, Please, Please tell me where. I am fed up with sensitive jerks who want to babble about trivia and then get mad when you want to treat the market as a job instead of a religion.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:18 - ID#269409)
@ Lou Jan...
here's an example of a site that should be cencored immediately! Just read through some of their archive articles and you'll see what I mean. They are SO mean spirited and "hate speech" filled with their criticisms of UFO researchers, psychic healers, spoon benders, and such.

Maybe we could form a special comittee and get financial backing from congress to add yet another law to internet regulation.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:20 - ID#35757)
When Uncle Sam gets his margin call, and starts to print money, what are you going to do with your dollars?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:27 - ID#242326)
Specialist short sales
The specialist short sales ratio is now as high as it was just before the summer 1997 correction and the 1987 market crash acccording to Bill Fleckenstein. Something for bulls to think about.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:29 - ID#219363)
@Old Gold
What do you mean by specialist short sales ? Unfamiliar.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:33 - ID#288186)
Silverbaron; oops...I put your name in an earlier post regarding EMU. You're
right. SDRer is the one to give us more info on this. I was trying
to re-call a specific date in early Nov. where "Something of
significance" happens in regards to the EMU. I thought it had to do
with the participants ( ie; Germany, Italy,etc ) being as close to
what amounts to U.S. gold price of 295.
So much for trying to recall something I can only half remember!
Sorry! Anyway, on to gold...The EWT short term update states that
gold could still rally from this area to 323 level or more. If
gold goes below 286, then the larger bear trend is back in force
and will drive prices lower, eventually below this year's low.
So, 286 is a key level. There is a small degree fourth wave low
sitting at 289.60. Gold may try to test this level tomorrow or
Wednesday. If gold rebounds to beyond 302.50 then that will be an
indication that gold is rallying toward the 323 peak of late April.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:34 - ID#320136)
Racism is a crime
And crime should not be endorsed.
Not on a precious metals forum or anywhere else.

Thank you,


(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:34 - ID#227238)
Dissension in the ranks. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
An entire day given over to the ludicrous should not be allowed to pass without casting additional fuel upon troubled fires ...... or something like that. .... But entirely on topic.

Lead in:

The elk rut is over but faint echoes of their ritual bugles may be heard in the camp of the 'silver backs'. It's unfortunate that a keyboard is entirely lacking in the subtlety needed to effect their refrain...... As we have all discovered at one time or another. ..... Rich being merely the most recent to receive that epiphany. ....... F* never will.

On Topic:

As we view the silver chart with a 'practiced eye', we may clearly see that the silver backs have enjoyed their 5 full waves up ( the good part ) and a full 5 waves down ( the not so good part ) . Beginning at ~ 420 in July 1997 ( yes, its been that long ) to a spike high of 750 in Feb 98 to the present low estate.

Not to be deterred, it would appear that the 'silver backs' continue to seek that market orgasm while totally ignoring the fact that they had 5 full waves ( count 'em ) to effect that pleasant result.

That they failed to do so is apparent. Now they are stuck with this pointy little pennant thingy that will, no doubt, result in a continuation of the effects of coitus interruptus.

Such is the course of unrequited love. As goldbugs we have become adjusted to it. You must as well. For while you were thrilling to long spike up in Feb, Warren was ( likely ) casting off some of his burden. ..... Deal with it. OK?

In the meantime, consider well the words of the late lamented ( ? ) Adam Clayton Powell: "Keep the faith baby, 'n we'll all taste the gravy". .... Where are those great statesmen from yesterday????

With full apologies to APH for the wave thingy.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:35 - ID#187109)
zees kitco......hmmmm....
well, well......I go AWAY for a little while and all hell breaks loose AGAIN! This kitco......she is somethin'............'tis good to be back. I missed a good week, no?!? This market ( US DOW ) ......she eez zee sat to

Anyway, the trip wasn't so bad........... ( boozed out and rather sundrenched ) ................. ( and the food ) .......... ( sheesh ) ....................I am on a strict regiment............only four meals a day for me ( grin ) .........and one-half bottle of red.........and possibly a beer or two.

And I spent a GREAT deal of profits duty free....................I found out that I truly despise sales tax................. ( eh mozel? ) ......

Met a HEAVY DUTY trader on was great. And he played some MEAN black jack...........craps sucked, bunch-o-suckers.....uh huh. The roulette was spectacular, as usual, it is the game of kings ( 'nuther grin thing ) . I only made enough though to pay my bar tab.............but it was big so I guess I made out.

.....So..... back to this trader. He is BIG BULL on stox....said it will hit new record next month and push OVER 10g's come December...January latest. I could only He is the biggest bull I have seen in a looooong while. It was great. He gave me good trade tips.....I gave him Cubans and Hondurans.................we had an arrangement. We talked of gold too................for about fifteen or twenty seconds, although he did play some gold stox on occasion. Oh well, I tried....I did my part. Perhaps he'll see the light...... ( more grinnage ) .... We even jumped ship ( expression ) a few times to call our brokers to make some trades......It was fun. I guess I couldn't go the whole week after all.......gotta love this stuff.

Anyway, good fun, glad too be back.....I wish someone would stop the room from swaying......... ( gettin my land legs back ) .............and I met a fine Indian Bartender who was suprised when I said Namast..........delightfully suprised.......ohmy. Do you know what he said to me????.........TOL#1???


everyone else said, "No problem mon"........after I said, "I'll have a Red Stripe"...........

away.........namast, G&P's, go golf!


oh yeah....almost forgot................screw gold, I am into diamonds now. Yes, I axed her.......and she said yes...........ohmy! Oh god what have I done : )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:36 - ID#72316)
And oh yes,, another thing that bothers me a tad on here is the druelling slavish worship of guns,, also not condemed or polls cast against...

PS; shorted barrick today


(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:39 - ID#266105)

Long diamonds, long gold. You forgot the band. : )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:40 - ID#30345)
Cool.. He means the people on the floor eho trade...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:40 - ID#227238)
'N bye the bye:
Kudos to Hizzoner, Chief Justice Studio R. ..... The only law west of Kansas City. ....... 'n east of the pecos? .... Hope I got that right. Geography is so difficult out there in the windy spaces. :- ) )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:41 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.02. The 233 day moving average is 28.89

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:41 - ID#280214)
Can we wrap this up tonight and not ruin the weekend?
As for TheMissingLink at 18:25
We who have tried and are trying to ignore racial/ethnic/religious differences repeatedly have members of those groups take the mere mention of a taboo subject or word as an insult. After being jumped on for mentioning anything *perceived* to be negative regarding a sacred cow we, who started out trying to be even-handed, soon become anti-semitic, anti-black, anti-hispanic, anti-gay, anti-feminist, and anti-many other characteristics. You who have circled the wagons against
ALL white, anglo middle-aged males soon find that you have alienated those who have tried to stay out of the crossfire.

I concur with MM at 18:47
Bart - if anyone gets a 404 on this please add me to the list.

and Kipling, courtesy of Speed at 18:44

and LGB at 18:04 and 18:38 {take THAT - Lou-Jan!}

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:43 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .254. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:43 - ID#280214)
oops - my timesense is still confused
Lets not ruin the rest of the WEEK!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:48 - ID#227238)
On yer racism thing? .... Stuff it. An expression of personal opinion that likely does not reflect the views of our host.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:51 - ID#30345)
@Old Gold

Is this what you were looking at... got this one from sharefin....thanx sharefin...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:51 - ID#280214)
morbius@19:20. Unlike some who have a problem with too much money.
I am converting dollars and credit limit into food and supplies as fast as I can. I don't and won't have much in paper dollars, paper stocks or paper Gold or even in physical Silver and Gold. My priority is food, water, shelter, clothing and the means to defend them. So I guess I don't share much with some on this forum who have so much money that they feel restricted by being allowed to only withdraw $10,000 in cash at a time. I should be so lucky!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:54 - ID#404246)
All this flap

I am of the opinion that all this flap is because farfel is back. I assume rich agrees and that is what he was talking about when he said.

"It is a sad day when we have a person with a I.Q. Of room temperature making a decision on first amendment rights and what is and is not politically correct.."

Many think farfel is a whacko and thus harmless. Since I am certified paranoid -- I think he is a paid agitator hired by some government department like the FBI, CIA, etc. His job is to come to Kitco and enrage people until they say something that he can turn them in for.

I was involved in the anti-war movement in the 60's and saw many government agitators infiltrate the various anti-war organizations. They acted and sounded much like farfel.

Never believe anything a paranoid says, especially me. All the above IMHO of course.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 19:57 - ID#242259)
Where are we going from here?
"State of the World 1999"

"Of the world's 6 billion people, 1.3 billion are living on $1 a day or less."

"The world's richest three people have more assets than the combined gross domestic products of the world's 48 poorest countries,"

And it is not hipocritical!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:00 - ID#288186)
Cliff Droke has a positive outlook for gold on Vronsky's site. He see's a
head and shoulder's bottom forming. The right shoulder would
form in the 290ish area. Take a look....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:02 - ID#288186)
oops. trying again....may have to delete the"en" if this doesn't work.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:09 - ID#219363)
Off Topic
EB: Congratulations man!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:13 - ID#411140)
The markets are a crap shoot. The indexes may fall but only if a wildly fearful event pushes it. It may even slowly reverse but it will not bring gold out of its trading channel. "They" are good at what they do. If we can assume what the markets will do, they will not! We will never see the Dow -25% ( new lows @7200 ) unless we wake up one morning to Japanese Bank failures or some such catastrophe. We will not
see gold @ 310 unless we see a dow 10,000 and inflation replaces deflation ( not likely ) .
Only if occurences erupt in a rapid unforseen relentless pattern will the dow fall, or gold rise threaten the dollar, the economic security of US, or the power that currently resides in the white house.
The most difficult, near impossible thing for anyone to do is question their own paradigms. Goldbugs have a definite paradigm, and we assume the beloved precious will assert its truth once again, and the hated politicians are too inept to avoid paying the piper. Don't bet your money on it.
Not only is the market fixed but we are blind where "they" can see. And in spite of all personal feelings "they" are damn good. Twice now but for their vigilance systemic failure would have taken us to POG $350+ & DOW 6000. Of course they may not always be there, but my point in posting this is: DO YOU HAVE ANY MEANS TO CHECK YOUR PARADIGMS? We could be wrong. Did you think on October 1 that on October 30 the Dow would be up 15%?
So now we look for that other shoe, the other side of the hurricane, Brazilian failures, Japanese Bank closures, Japanese gold purchases, some really delayed hedge fund margin calls, war, or Y2K catastrophes. Yes. Point is the goldbug paradigm says something that has yet to happen HAS TO HAPPEN.
IMHO nothing has to happen, because it just may not. Just the same the cost of physical gold is cheap and it will always be my preferred savings vehicle.
There are so many things that one could get upset about but if you contemplate our fate, the most disgusting depressing thing I can conceive to comment on it is a less than 50% of registered voters voting. If you ever want anything different you simply absolutely have to vote, and I know there is often no one worthy of a vote but that is beside the point. IT REALLY IS. The public must vote en masse to show we must be contended with!

Got Vote?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:15 - ID#411140)
The markets are a crap shoot. The indexes may fall but only if a wildly fearful event pushes it. It may even slowly reverse but it will not bring gold out of its trading channel. "They" are good at what they do. If we can assume what the markets will do, they will not! We will never see the Dow -25% ( new lows @7200 ) unless we wake up one morning to Japanese Bank failures or some such catastrophe. We will not
see gold @ 310 unless we see a dow 10,000 and inflation replaces deflation ( not likely ) .
Only if occurences erupt in a rapid unforseen relentless pattern will the dow fall, or gold rise threaten the dollar, the economic security of US, or the power that currently resides in the white house.
The most difficult, near impossible thing for anyone to do is question their own paradigms. Goldbugs have a definite paradigm, and we assume the beloved precious will assert its truth once again, and the hated politicians are too inept to avoid paying the piper. Don't bet your money on it.
Not only is the market fixed but we are blind where "they" can see. And in spite of all personal feelings "they" are damn good. Twice now but for their vigilance systemic failure would have taken us to POG $350+ & DOW 6000. Of course they may not always be there, but my point in posting this is: DO YOU HAVE ANY MEANS TO CHECK YOUR PARADIGMS? We could be wrong. Did you think on October 1 that on October 30 the Dow would be up 15%?
So now we look for that other shoe, the other side of the hurricane, Brazilian failures, Japanese Bank closures, Japanese gold purchases, some really delayed hedge fund margin calls, war, or Y2K catastrophes. Yes. Point is the goldbug paradigm says something that has yet to happen HAS TO HAPPEN.
IMHO nothing has to happen, because it just may not. Just the same the cost of physical gold is cheap and it will always be my preferred savings vehicle.
There are so many things that one could get upset about but if you contemplate our fate, the most disgusting depressing thing I can conceive to comment on it is a less than 50% of registered voters voting. If you ever want anything different you simply absolutely have to vote, and I know there is often no one worthy of a vote but that is beside the point. IT REALLY IS. The public must vote en masse to show we must be contended with!

Got Vote?

Gusto Oro
(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:16 - ID#430260)
To: E. Charters ( 18594 )
From: Alan Whirlwind Wednesday, Sep 23 1998 6:36AM ET
Reply # of 22519
Pinky's Tailing Box: a weekly Wednesday feature of At a Bottom Now for


Professor Silverton, it is my assertation that prejudice is a learned
behavior and therefore a product of environment.

I do protest such an observation Professor Goldstein. Prejudice is
obviously an innate aspect of the human condition and most assuredly a
product of heredity. But how might our opposing theories be properly put
to test?


Excuse me Dr, while I answer the I help you my good

Moe: Yes, is this 18594 E. Charters Boulevard? We're here to apply for
jobs as lab assistants.

Goldstein: Indeed, what are your qualifications, gentlemen?

Curly: That ain't one of 'em, nyuk, nyuk.

Moe: Oops, I dropped a quarter.

Curly: I'll get it. Hey, it's only a nickle--you gyped me.

Moe: Oops, now I dropped my briefcase.


Curly: Ooo! Ooo!

Moe: Pay attention peabrain! And I'll take my nickle back...

Larry: Hey, Indian giver...

Moe: Clam up Polack. I'm no welsher. SWAT

Curly: Oooo! But who's goin' ta get the nickle?

Larry: I know. Eenie meanie miny moe, catch a...

Goldstein: Er...if you applicants would wait one moment while I confer
with my associate...

Silverton: Are you thinking what I'm thinking Professor?

Goldstein: Quite. I propose in three months to educate these base
fellows and turn them from bigotted slobs into gentlemen of tolerance.
You on your side need only to test them once at a social function of
your choosing and find them wanting in any manner of intended

Silverton: Agreed.

Goldstein: apologies for the delay boys, consider yourselves

Larry: Gee, that's swell. What are the particulars of the job
description?...That's college educated for, "What do we do?"

Moe: There's something in your eye, Porcupine.

Larry: In my eye? I don't feel anything Moe.


Larry: Ow, ow.

Moe: How about now?

Goldstein: Let's just say you will be ginuea pigs of human progress.



Goldstein: Gentlemen, I remind you that for your employment to continue
it is imperative that not one inflammatory, derogatory, or otherwise
discriminatory remark be uttered by any of you at tonight's UN social.
Epithets of race or gender are to be especially abhored. Just
remember--be broad-minded.

Curly: It's easy to be broad minded with all these dames around here,
nyuk, nyuk.

Moe: You know what this is chicken brain?

Curly: Soitenly, that's an ice pick for chopping cubes for the

Moe: Then what's it doing in your nose?

Curly: Owowowowowwow!

Moe: Don't worry Doc, you can count on us.

Goldstein: You may mingle with the guests, but please be discreet.


Irish ambassador: A hundred thousand welcomes lads. Dr. Goldstein has
spoken much of you.

Curly: Hey Paddy, who's the goirl over there in the checkered skoirt you
was yacking to?

Irish Ambassador: Er...that's the Scottish ambassador. I'm intimately
acquainted with him as we're both of Celtic origin.

Curly: Sheesh, what a battleax...him? Ny-a-a-a-a-a-a-h-h!

Larry: Ambassador, pay no attention to Curly; he's the black sheep of
the family.

Moe: You numbskull, you're inferring all sheep of color are morons and
giving them a Black Eye.


Larry: OUWWWW.

Moe: And you, lamebrain, one more word out of you and I'll do this, RAP!
This, BOP! And this, WAP!

Curly: Ahooow!

Larry: Boy Moe, you just gave Curly a real shiner.

Curly: Yeah Moe, looks like the pot's calling the kettle black, nyuk,

Moe: Excuse me gentlemen, I didn't mean to blacken your names...

Larry: Oh, that's okay Moe.

Curly: Yeah--we excuses ya.

Moe: ...Just your eyes.


Larry, Curly: OWWWWWW.

Irish Ambassador: Don't trouble yourselves lads, we homo sapiens are a
flawed creation and quite prone to a mistake or two now and again. If
you will excuse me for a minute...

Curly: You hear what that crossdresser's chum just called us?

Moe: Listen...

Australian Ambassador: My wife Susan's main past-time is horticulture.
Ironically, when it comes to exhibiting her best bloomers, black-eyed
Susans are often the only result...

Moe: You hear that boys? He's such a chauvenist he beats his wife for
wearing bloomers.

Mexican Ambassador: Have you any recent agreements on the partitioning
of Cyprus?

Turkish Ambassador: No, we should never have invited Greece back so soon
to the bargaining table given their latest dispicable offer.

Moe: And this guy slurs Pedro over there right to his face.

English Ambassador: I find the current blackguard in Washington beneath
our contempt. Whitehall is obviously a superior governing body.

Larry: You hear that--this guy's down on black security guards and
thinks only whites should be in charge at city hall.

Senator Moynahan: One must admit that with the truth they have been
quite niggardly.

Moe: A Democrat using the "n" word--this is more serious than I thought

Canadian Ambassador: Perhaps the scandals will strengthen the splinter
opposition, Senator--what if Jessie Jackson once again throws his hat in
the ring?

Senator Moynahan: Dark horses as often as not shake up the status quo.

Curly: Yeah Moe, you hear what he just called the Reverend?

Moe: Something's amiss here fellahs and it's not the Scottish

Ethiopean Ambassador: We should show proper discrimination and avoid
entirely such tangents in politics.

Nigerian Ambassador: The American president has truly turned out to be a
white elephant for his supporters. It is said he has even shunned his
own military.

Kenyan Ambassador: White feathers make for inferior leaders.

Larry: You catch that Moe? These colored clowns are as racist as those
white bozos.

Moe: Yeah, they think white leaders are featherbrains and they won't
vote for a gent just because he's tan.

Larry: And they're poking fun at our president just because he's white
and eats a lot of junk food.

Moe: Junk food eh? Gentlemen, you see that dessert table over there? You
know what our duty is...

Larry: To throw pie in the face of prejudice...

Moe: On my signal...let 'em have it boys.

Larry: A wife beater hey? SWOOSH!

Moe: No minorities at city hall eh? SWOOSH!

Curly: You think whites are chumps? SWOOSH! And this one's for the Rev!

Kenyan Ambassador: I've always wondered if it were actually true that
the English cook birds into their pies...

English Ambassador: I can assure you Old King Cole did not bake birds in
his pies..."pie birds" are little vents, sometimes carved in the shape
of a bird, placed in the pie to allow steam to escape from the inside
and keep it from boiling over. They also help support the crust. Pie
birds, I'm afraid, have never been known to fly...



From the Tailing Box...


You're buying Zappa again? You Polack! --O. Bleak

Dear O. Bleak:

PrOfits I will not LACK. --Whirlwind.

E-mail PMs questions/comments to

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:18 - ID#290118)
Until at least 7 days after Bart purges me from Kitco and I reapply
I will waste no more bandwidth on subjects I've already flogged. Please see my 19:04 for more info. I too have asked Bart to delete me from the Kitco servers. If someday I should feel the urge to post again, I will have to wait out the 7 day cooling off period. 'Till then - bye bye!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:19 - ID#404246)
To ALL but especially Lou_Jan

I don't think most on this forum know what "Racism" is ( and I don't think it is capitalized either ) . It would be most interesting if those using the following words would give their definition of what the following words mean so we could at least talk about the same thing.




And, reguardless of what Lou_Jan says, as far as I know -- "being" any of the above is not a crime. Racist, anti-Semitic, or bigoted "actions" may be a crime depending on what those actions are and what country you are in.

Lou_Jan think about what you are saying and implying when you call an opinion a crime. You are saying that anyone who holds opinions that you dislike are criminals. Some of those you were listing as absolute evil, like Hitler, started out like that -- and no one stood up or stopped them from branding thoughts or beliefs a crime -- and look what happened.

It's bed time will check for comments tommorow.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:22 - ID#347457)
@Bart and the rest of Kitcoits
I posted in the morning "Oh Bart, what are you getting into?" without elaborating about consequences. There you have it, the Kitco forum, which was supposed to be a forum for gold investors and analysts, is split over ethnic issues. Yup, you are the owner, and I fully understand your right to run it whichever way you want. I also REALLY appreciate your effort to set up and continually support the forum. I thank you for that. I believe that your intention to run "survey" was really a good attempt to find out what the forum participants think about how to run this forum.

I also believe that your good intention has misfired. Instead of "gluing" together people with common interest ( gold ) we see the group split over issues which are not "gold". It is in human nature to notice the things that we are sensitive to ( due to our own heritage, or some other reasons ) It is true so much more when we are hurting for some other reason ( e.g., our gold investment performance ) . Some posters say "show me when other group except Jews was put down on this forum". To those I would say go ahead and research the archive. You probably have skipped over some posts, because it was not you who were put down, and it did not catch your attention ( more likely you had a good laugh ) .

The first reaction to this "post survey" discussion was "screw it - I am out of here". However, it would be giving up my beliefs, and on my interest in Gold - the primary reason I am on this site. So, until I am kicked out, I'll stay. Though, from now on, mostly in lurking position to see where the forum goes ( not that I had too much to contribute in the first place )

I would like to ask for one thing ( if it counts ) . Please don't let any group to "rule", be it goldbug, stock investors, Jews, Moslems, Christians, Russians, Chinese, anti-Jews, anti-Moslems, anti-Christians, etc. as far as the person has the gold on their mind and has something to say about where these markets go. If we start to "weed" posters out, posters who have really something to say about the gold market, all of us will loose ( except for some participants who are much more sensitive to other issueas than gold ) .

As far as civility goes, it is desirable, however, it does not happen all too often in the real life - we are just humans and we tend to offend when we least thought we would.

Thank you - Miro

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:23 - ID#253153)
From Cyprus in the Mediterraen on the way to the Holy land
Let's talk about markets. On Aug 31, 98, the stock market was severley oversold. In my opinion , the first phase of the bear market was completed. The Dow declined 19.26% and the advance/decline line was crushed. Following the low's , an advance begun with the Dow recouping almost 66% of the previous decline and closing around 8700 as of today. Some people claim -a new bull market has begun with the Dow projected to reach 10,000 before year end. I ask the following question:
1. How can a new bull market start with the SPX P/E ratio aroung 28 and the dividend yield on the Dow about 1.75 % ? . On record earnings the historical average has been 12. Rallies in a bear market exist for the purpose of keeping your hopes high and keep you fully invested in common stocks. Every bear or bull market has their own way of confusing and tricking investors. If it was so obvious and easy every investor would have been a rich person. By the time this primary bear market is done with investors, majority of them will become homeless. Bear markets can not be worked off by any means. If you don't feel comfortable being invested in gold, stay in treasury bills and sleep well. This is not the time to speculate in common stocks. Euphoria is back and I pitty investors for
not selling their common stocks when they could receive reasonable prices. For the bear market to continue, the Dow must break 7539.07 and the Transport 2616.76.
Old Gold, I don't appreciate personal attacks and criticism regarding my opinion.From what I have read on Kitco over the last 2 years, your record is very poor .
Enough for today,
God bless.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:34 - ID#288186)
Signing off for now. Not much positive talk today about gold. Maybe a good
contrary indicator? It's worked before....Here's hoping that gold
will go no lower than 286 and make its upward to a least 323 very
soon! I'll worry about higher numbers once we see the 320 level.
.....ok....... I'll say it......

I base this on several circumstances. 1 ) EWT ( elliott wave theory ) !
See my earlier post regarding the EWT short term update.
2 ) Cliff Droke's comments on the "head and shoulder's" formation!
See my earlier post regarding this. 3 ) The equities markets are
quite possibly done with their wave 2 correction. We may be seeing
wave 3 down coming very soon! This could be quite positive for the
Precious Metals since there may finally be a "real" flight to quality
this time. T-bonds may benefit again, but not as much this time,IMHO.
That's it folks!! I've spoken my thoughts! See ya! Fox-man
P.S. Above is FWIW and IMHO...those who want to do a "reality check",
please feel free to. I can "go out on a limb" as well as the next poster
can't I?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:40 - ID#119358)
@bigotry begins at home...........
honest to Gosh...this JUST happened... ( off topic, as always )

So just about twenty minutes's the scene: The sun has set. Lini and my older daughter are unloading the car, when a black man with a briefcase and a voice bigger than Otis Redding swoops down on them with a HARD sales pitch for a miracle cleaning product having a special sales price of only $187.00 a gallon. yup.

I'm upstairs, inside, on the balcony and I can clearly hear his agressive manner ( even though I'm inside the house ) and I begin to worry. I listen for two more minutes and hear Lini firmly, but politely, state that she is not a buyer. He persists. Now it's my turn. I quickly go downstairs and open the door and SHOUT..."Hey, get out of here! heard my wife". Whereupon, fire instantly invaded both of our hearts.

"I told you to get the hell outta' here!"...but he still did not leave. "Let me see your permit or I'll call the police" ( I'm starting to get even louder now ) . He fumbles through his briefcase for a "permit" and presents a xerox of something that looks like a receipt from Albertson's. I now take notice of a gun in his case.

He says...."You just don't like my sun tan, do you mister?" I said..."No sir, I don't give a hoot about your skin...I just don't like you buggin' my wife". And...."I don't like to be called a bigot by anyone, man.....hell, you're the bigot".

He picks up his case and shouts ( by now several neighbors have appeared down the street ) .....He continues....."Yea, you don't like my sun tan do you!" And I shout back at the top of my lungs...."I am not a bigot!!!...I just don't like you!"

He makes a break for it down the street yelling somewthing about my problem with his sun tan. And I start running after him....fortunately for both of us, he outran me. on Twisted Off Road, I am now known as a bigot. huh. Yup, Twisted Off Road runs both ways.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:43 - ID#206235)
@ Lou Jan....... Racism = free speech???
You said...... "Racism is a crime And crime should not be endorsed.
Not on a precious metals forum or anywhere else."

Excuse me but to what are you addressing this? Are we getting the concepts of free speech, hate speech, and racism all confused and mixed up again like all good leftist liberals do? reality check time.

1 ) Racism is not a crime. It may be abhorrent, but it isn't a crime.

2 ) The proper way to deal with racism is to discuss it and refute it out in the open. Not through censorship.

3 ) Just who on this forum "endorsed" racism? Sure wasn't I. Anyone who's been around awhile will tell you how quickly and vociferously I denounced the anti-semites that used to hang out here and discuss their "Jewish banker conspiracy", one world, illuminatti, Rockafeller, 5th column nonsense.

But I'd NEVER tell those folks they ought to be censored, Nor would I whine to Bart.....See point 2 above.

3 ) Why is it that some folks so quickly and predictably trot out "Hitler" and "Hate speech" everytime they see any cricital, honest, and strident discussion of someone else's views?

Invocation of Hitler and Hate speech come straight out of the ultra leftists manual for stifling free thought, do they not?

Go Gold...go free speech.... down with phony, leftist, "civil" squelching of freedom of thought..and expression of same. Even on Gold forums......

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:52 - ID#290456)
Negative Waves

If gold bugs can't be nice to each other, who is going to be nice to us? Think about it.

Dec Gold up $.40 to 291.30

Nite all.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:56 - ID#350358)
Your 18:28

Don't speak for me.

Read some history and understand what happens

with Utopias.

Don't try to create a Utopia, for the loss

ensued is too great.

The Political Correctness of today creates laws that remove freedom only

from those that follow them. As it has in the past. There is a stanglehold

carressing us all and will get worse without the tolerance of people to handle

their own actions and feelings in the presence of bad behavior.

Don't know if you ever played touch football, but there was a lesson to be

learned when the 'owner' of the football took it home because he didn't like

the way the game was going. He owned the ball, but the game was life.

Life and Freedom are "GOLD"


(Mon Nov 02 1998 20:59 - ID#433172)
I'm not an analyst and make no claim to understanding the gold lease-carry relatonships etc. Something strange occured and I'll share it if anyone wants to know later...but.. The market will move big time this week, about thursday maybe, big move.....which way? where can it go.

Studio r - Sounds like an advance man sizing up the gave him the right answer. Keep toking on that yarrow, it'll keep your head clear, and your lungs. Carrying a gun without a permit around here can be prosecuted..he have a a cop.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:00 - ID#401460)
Is The Bottom In Place

Van Eck Hard Assets


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:01 - ID#187109)
to 2BRnot and Envy..........exciting times.....uh huh. Hey StudioR.....BUDDY!! Didn't ya hear me???????? : (

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:05 - ID#344326)
Kitco as a contrarion indicator...
Gold must be forming a short term bottom. Kitco has always had it's share of strong opinions. It's what has keep me reading Kitco for over a year now. What I find disagreeable is that Bart only attempted to use a survey to find out what the lurkers and posters opinions are, most likely to use the majority to make some kind of decision, and now we've got people stampeding out of here. Does anyone think about how Bart must feel? He must have put time and money into a new service provider when the site got too slow. He even had spooky Bats on the Kitco Banner for Halloween. He's been the most gracious of hosts, and all some people do is complain. Talk about rude guests. If you don't like it, then leave. The internet is a big place.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:06 - ID#119358)
Ima' listenin' buddy.......just what should I hear?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:07 - ID#206235)
@ Lou Jan...all....Who said this?
Are the quotes below "hate speech" that isn't civil and ought to be censored? Curious minds want to know....

"The pro-gold/anti-gold schism is not a mere is nothing less than a cultural war. ..... Anyone who would deny this is viewing the world through blinders."

"There are many in this world and on this forum who have built their houses upon foundations of gold and silver......"

"when you come on this forum and declare that these metals are effectively worthless...or headed to the dustbin of history...then you might as well be a rapist who breaks into my home. I will shoot you...I will kill you...I will rip off your ears and gleefully watch you bleed to death on my floor."

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:07 - ID#222231)
Why spend all the money for an election when we have ABC?

PS: Gold will not go up until we have a substantial rise in short term rates. IMHO.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:10 - ID#219363)
Great post. Thank you for the site Bart! Re: All the other stuff, it was actually kind of funny that people would react the way they did, but now I'm really sad because Squirrel won't be posting anymore. I like the stuff Squirrel has to say. : (

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:11 - ID#187109)
OKEE....I know yuns are slooooooooow ;-)
re-read my earlier post.....ALL of it.......

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:11 - ID#119358)
@GeOrge.........mellow yarrow...... got that one right, sir. it is done. salud!!!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:14 - ID#317193)
glenn...might agree with you depending on the bond market....
We'll see what the new issues do this week...think they will not be well recieved...


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:14 - ID#206235)
Gold & Silver Numismatic market, continues strong climb
For some GOOD news on Gold & Silver, ( of a Numismatic variety anyway.. ) latest from Coin Dealer Newsletter. This is why Robnoel and I have been preaching Numsimatic potential over bullion for a year and a half now. There's a very finite supply...that can't be "manipulated"...

the GOLD commentary begind third paragraph down.
Peace Dollars & Double Eagles In Demand

Sight-Unseen Market Higher In October

Dealers are looking more and more at Peace Dollars. The recent increases that we have seen throughout 1997 and 1998 in the Morgan Dollar series have caused Peace Dollars to look like bargains. Consequently, dealers have been willing to pay more to buy select Peace Dollars for their customers. We are seeing many increases in the sight-unseen Peace Dollar market. This scenario is true for both NGC and PCGS certified Dollars. Most of this week's activity is targeted in the MS63, MS64 and MS65 grades. Dealers believe that these grades currently represent excellent value. Some of the dates that are attracting dealers include 1921; 1923-D; 1923-S; 1924-S; 1925-S; 1926-D; 1926-S; 1928; 1934; 1934-D; and, 1935-S. We see that strong demand for these dates in MS64 condition may be fueled by collectors. The Peace Dollar series has been very popular with collectors. Completing a set of Peace Dollars is a lot less challenging and costly compared to completing a set of Morgan Dollars. For most collectors it is much more affordable. Also, they are able to complete the set in a relatively reasonable amount of time. For dealers, Bidding sight-unseen allows them to obtain specific dates for their customers. Dealers believe that this can be achieved efficiently and economically in the sight-unseen market.

However, dealers also continue to increase their Bids for Morgan Dollars. The general Dollar market is very healthy. We see increases in common date MS62 Morgan Dollars. These are attractive brilliant Uncirculated Dollars that are easily salable to collectors. Dealers are willing to pay $19 for a silver Dollar that has been certified by either PCGS or NGC. Demand has also forced higher prices for MS64 and MS65 Morgans. We are even noticing some plus signs in the MS66 and MS67 grade category. Some of the many dates that dealers need for their customers and their inventories include 1878 7/8TF Strong Tail Feathers; 1878 7TF Reverse of 1879; 1880-CC Reverse of 1878; 1881; 1881-O; 1882-CC; 1885-S; 1889-O; 1891-CC; and, 1900-O/CC.

Generally, the rare coin market is doing very well. Dealers are very satisfied with its performance throughout 1998. Show attendance seems to be increasing and optimism is growing. All this optimism adds up to increases in many series and denominations. Gold is one of the market leaders today. Dealers are willing to pay strong money for certified and raw Mint State Gold Type. Dealers have readily increased their demand for $20 Saint-Gaudens in MS61 through MS65 condition. Apparently, some investors in the financial markets are diversifying their portfolios by adding Gold. Often, the coins of choice are the double eagles. This is because they approach a full ounce of Gold and also offer some numismatic value. Currently, the premium being paid for common date $20 Saints and Coronets is very high. This is true in the sight-seen market as well as the sight-unseen market. We have many plus signs throughout the Saint-Gaudens series. One dealer has increased the Bid for $20 High Relief's to $70,000. This amount is being offered sight-unseen for coins graded by either grading service. Also, the buyer needs three coins at this price level. Along with the common dates, some rare Saints have been increasing in value. Dealers are willing to pay more money because of their customer demand. The problem facing many dealers is availability. The scarce and rare dates are not as easily found. The price could increase before an example can be bought. Dealers have to be willing to pay more money or risk loosing the deal. Dealers are successful when they retain their liquidity and they know their customer's ability to buy the coin at anytime.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:16 - ID#222231)
Don't know what happened-follow this link for election results
I previewed post and entered url with no trouble until posted.

Click on "SEARCH"-Enter "Election 98" and follow links.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:16 - ID#206235)
GOld bullion coin sales doing well too!
But of course they can mint these baby's in virtually any number required to meet demand.

September gold bullion sales total 233,000 ounces in coins

Uncirculated gold American Eagle bullion coins are still hot among collectors and investors, with 233,000 ounces sold by the United States Mint during September.

Septembers sales carried calendar year 1998s total gold sales to 1,246,500 ounces, and program totals since October 1986 to 8,615,000 ounces.

Sales of 1-ounce silver American Eagles during September reached 450,000 ounces, boosting annual sales to 2,685,000 ounces, and program totals to 72,151,500. Platinum sales in September topped out at 17,600 ounces, pushing sales for the first nine months of 1998 to 105,700 ounces, and program totals since September 1997 to 179,050 ounces.

During September 1998, the Mint sold 188,500 of the 1-ounce gold coins, 26,000 of the half-ounce coins, 50,000 of the quarter-ounce coins and 190,000 of the tenth-ounce gold coins.

Platinum sales in September reached 85,500 of the 1-ounce coins, 24,200 of the half-ounce coins, 19,600 of the quarter-ounce coins and 32,000 of the tenth-ounce coins.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:26 - ID#45173)
Stock market goes up, gold goes down, Kitco goes into a tailspin
A few weeks ago it was the end of the world and you couldn't throw a beer can out the window without hitting a reporter yapping about The Global Economic Meltdown. Now that the world has been set straight by the act of a clan of high-ranking Economic Leaders speaking about it, the stock market is balooning with Investor Confidence, the very thing that bulls two weeks ago was the one precondition for a crash that in its absense at the time assured none was to happen. But now that everyone is so universally happy and confident, there is no risk of a crash. Nope. And gold is dead, too. And Bart, by excercising a little editorial control over his site, is a black boot censor. Sheesh. Gimme a break.

Let's see now. The Brazillians have less than 60 days to somehow get $90B of loans resolved, but first they have to pass austerity measures that no congressman can support and survive politically. And you think you got problems.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:30 - ID#31868)
EB, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...and I have no clue what that means but shall
look it up...STUDIO_R, Namaste' G&P to time take the gold out of your pockets and you will probably catch whomever it is you are running after...bbl feeding my neighbor's piranhas...vicious little devils...go figure...they love eating GOLD fish...sheesh...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:30 - ID#433172)
One of the most interesting comments I've ever encountered was attributed to Madam Rothschild. When asked about the legacy which would pass to a male heir " The best thing I could hope for him is he have a deep and abiding interest in nature".

That seems to me to be a insightful and profound assesment. Oeople like that should be wealthy.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:30 - ID#401460)
Is The Bottom In Place?

Utility Index^UTY&d=1y


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:31 - ID#119358)
The "axed" cut me mind two ways.........and of course ( like ALL my calls ) I chopped it the wrong way..and deduced you had dumped her. Now, I re-re-read it...and....whooooooooaaa I get it!!!

I must apologize for my berry belated congrats!!!! duhX2 EB.....SALUD!!! and muy muy mucho GulpOs y mucho mucho PuffOs to ( Yous.2 ) !!!! WoW! keeeeeerrrrraaazzzzzzzie, mon. I'll practice up on Ode to Joy. ;^ ) ~

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:33 - ID#320136)
See the white flag...
To you miserably petulant crowd out there... as for my
own secretive survey conducted by yours truly, I have
concluded that this surely must mean the bottom is close at hand
for gold -- what with all the rancor and hostility in
the clubhouse tonight. So sorry to get off subject,
once again, unfortunately I am drudging up the subject
we all want to escape from -- gold discussion.

Hey Bart, whadda ya say we ban all this discussion
about gold? It's racist in that au is subordinated
to platinum, and is considered innately 'superior' to
silver and palladium. ( Not to mention the 'base' metals ) .
That should really ruffle up some feathers.

Anyway, in all seriousness, frankly I must concede that
I probably jumped the gun on the racist thingie. Course,
when it really comes down to it, racist acts aren't
usually self-starters, it's those ugly ideas that are
convoluted and propogated at first.

I am certainly not standing in judgement of anyone here.
It would also take a great deal to insult my intelligence.
I AM ALL FOR FREE SPEECH, and dissemination of ideas --
but yeah... ( I know, I could have fooled you ) .

I'm sick of gulps, puffs, gold in the dumpster, guns,
Clintler, Bundt Cake, separatists, ego-centrics ( the food
fight gang ) , gold going down some more, the Rangy-Drooy
superiority contest, technical analysis that's never
'analytically correct' ( in hindsight ) , swooning equity
markets, AG + RR Spin Company, and spelling mistakes!!!!

Spelling 101: Please note, *it's* is used when it can
be replaced by saying "it is".

*its* signifies posession.



(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:34 - ID#401460)

30 YR Bond^tyx&d=b


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:35 - ID#348129)
@Hmmmmm, you like Gold, I like Gold, hey look, 60% of us like Gold ..........
Market gurus hot on gold, cool on stocks

Monday, November 2, 1998
Investment Reporter

Market watchers have taken a shine to gold, The Globe and Mail's latest Bulls vs. Bears survey of investment professionals indicates.

Sixty per cent of those polled predicted the price of gold will be higher six months from now, while only 12 per cent said they expect the price to fall.

In the previous survey, two weeks ago, 44 per cent of respondents were looking for higher gold prices, while 19 per cent were calling for a fall.

The balance of opinion -- which is the bearish percentage subtracted from the bullish -- now stands at 48, up from 25.9 two weeks ago.

The latest survey marks the most bullish stance that market pros have taken on the yellow metal since April, when the Toronto Stock Exchange reached its peak for the year.

As was the case back in April, investment professionals are calling for a rise in the price of gold amid robust gains in equity markets, which may suggest they consider the recent upswing in stock markets too steep. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and falling stock prices.

On Friday, the price of bullion fell amid low inflation and a plan by the Group of Seven industrialized nations to head off economic crises around the world.

Gold ended the week at $292.55 ( U.S. ) an ounce on the Commodity Exchange division on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Many people consider sentiment surveys such as Bulls v. Bears to be contrary indicators. The most optimistic opinions often come just before a fall, while the outlook brightens as market watchers believe prices have hit a trough.

While gold was gaining in lustre, equity markets were losing some of their allure, the survey suggests.

Fifty-seven per cent of respondents forecast the Toronto Stock Exchange will close higher six months from now, while 29 per cent expect it to take a tumble during that time. That compares with 72 per cent calling for an upturn and 24 per cent calling for lower stocks in the previous survey.

The balance of opinion slipped to 28.6 from 48.3.

The TSE 300-stock composite increased 10.6 per cent in October, to post its biggest percentage gain in one month since August, 1984, when the index surged ahead 11.5 per cent.

The outlook on U.S. equity markets is similarly negative, according to market professionals. Thirty-nine per cent of those surveyed are bullish on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, while 32 per cent are siding with the bears.

Two weeks ago, 57 per cent were upbeat and 27 per cent were pessimistic about the S&P 500. The balance of opinion has edged down to 7.2 from 30.

Since Oct. 8, the S&P 500 has gained 15 per cent. On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average wrapped up its best month since January, 1987. The blue chip index gained 9.6 per cent in October, compared with a 13.8-per-cent rally in January, 1987.

Survey respondents are also marginally more positive toward Canadian bonds. Forty-six per cent expect the long bond price to rise during the next six months, little changed from the 47 per cent who made that call in the previous survey. Those who expect the price to fall have slipped to 23 per cent of respondents from 32 per cent. The balance of opinion stands at 23.1, up from 14.5.

On Friday, Canadian bond prices fell on expectations strong economic growth in the United States and Canada could delay the interest rate reductions that some investors have been anticipating.

Bulls vs. Bears is a proprietary survey developed by The Globe and Mail as an indicator of Canadian professional market sentiment. There were 28 respondents to the latest survey.



Every two weeks we survey money managers, strategies and advisers on where they expect financial markets to be in six months - up, down or unchanged. Here is what they think this week.


TSE 300 57% 29%

S&P 500 39% 32%

Bond prices 46% 23%

Gold 60% 12%

The rest are neutral

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:38 - ID#280214)
Envy - thanks for the compliment.
Bart - thanks for the opportunity, I'll still lurk from time to time.
All - Thanks to those who have helped me learn so much here.
But now I need time to get my life together so I can go on.
Because I am worried that my life has seemed so futile.
I need time to reprioritize. Cutting back on Kitco will help.
Bye again.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:41 - ID#401460)



(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:41 - ID#45173)
It is time
Demain j'achte du platine.
Morgen kaufe ich etwas Platin.
Domani comprer un certo platino.
Amanh eu compro alguma platina.
Compro maana algo de platino.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:41 - ID#431200)

Stphane CEAUX-DUTHEIL DOW-JONES Analysis I translated it in english.The translation is not guaranteed. The TECHNICAL CORRECTION COULD BE OVER Le Dow-Jones has met its strong zone of resistance 8400-8560 points ( side resistance chartist and moving average to 200 days ) , and seems now prepared to move downward again . Is the correction over or is it only at one intermediate level? Dow-Jones could have very well completed its upward technical correction at 8560 points because it have reached simultaneously the 100 and 200 days moving average ( return to the moving average to validate the break of it, before a new downward move? ) . It should be noted that the 100 days moving average is presently cutting downward the 200 days moving average . If a downward move takes place at the same time and that the 8100 points level does not hold,. then this technical correction would be really over and the market will be then ready for a fall of about 2000 points even less.If level of 8100 points holds then a last rally to 8560-8700 points could very well take place before a new strong downward move resumes Indicator SCD as you can see it on the second graph very well identifies the last movements of Dow-Jones. Presently it gives a buy signal and turns back towards the moving average which filters it, an upward rebound against this moving average will give credit to the thesis of an increase to the 8560-8700 level. A downward crossing of its moving average will warn us of an imminent fall. So you will follow the evolution of my indicator in the weeks to come. It is important to watch the head and shoulder configuration which the Dow-Jones is building, . An downward rupture of the 7500 level at the end of a week would accelerate the downward move to the levels shown in the third graph. Opinion very negative on the mid-term evolution of the Dow-Jones.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:43 - ID#225369)
It really
seems to me that if we can agree that the markets are being manipulated,then all manner of speculation by using charts and trends and historical comparison is useless.The market is going,irrationally,higher .I do not believe gold and other pm's are going higher until the rest of the market is completely and undeniably, fully valued. Then,as the crowd diversifies to balance portfolios does the crowd boost prices.I wish complacency and contentment return to the market for good.Gold will not be threatening and it will be ok for it to go to the moon because everything else already went.

I can remember one of the first catch phrases I heard about investing is that you don't fight the fed.If the markets are being manipulated why do some - including myself- fight the trend.Why invest in pm's if the price is manipulated against us.I'm not being reasonable.To be a contrarian,one is not reasonable,at least not in this market,not at this time.I just can't help myself.

I like gold.Bubbling and gushing,I like the color and the feel of it.I don't like what it's price has done to my portfolio.I think I would have made more money investing in something else.That is what I think today.Tommorrow could be like a couple weeks ago and I felt like a genius investing in gold.I have no faith to shake anymore.I am going to be reasonable.Gold is stuck here in the 300 range plus,minus 10% until Ms. Cohen gets a ticker tape parade on wall street.It is stuck until the crowd no longer feels the government will insure the market,or that it can.


Gollum,I think that the peanuts here in Okla. are being harder hit than anything else.A crop adjustor friend of mine had some awfully puny examples with him last week. The cotton looked good to me though. I am familiar with peanuts;I don't know much about cotton.


I have a business acquaintance who was going to sell a stockpile of crushed cars for scrap but was told the price he would get and decided to hang onto the scrap until he could get a better price.He was told the cheap Japanese iron and steel was flooding the market and depressing prices.True or not true: Iron behaves a lot like gold.I wish the miners would act like my friend.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:43 - ID#9332)
I am incredulous. I can't believe that ABC would post detailed election results even as a prank. This brings to mind the scenario where national elections are "fixed" by computer virus.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:43 - ID#413273)
BUGal....Thanks buddy....just a word to the wise for the first time 1/10 th oz $5.00 American Gold
Eagles...have out sold the more popular 1oz coins......whats this mean ? greater demand by jewelers or folks looking for barter make the callPS BUGal put in an order for 100 MS 61 Liberty $20.00 to-day could only ship me 15 this week the balance 4-6 weeks....and I paid ask plus...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:43 - ID#411112)
BUGal....Thanks buddy....just a word to the wise for the first time 1/10 th oz $5.00 American Gold
Eagles...have out sold the more popular 1oz coins......whats this mean ? greater demand by jewelers or folks looking for barter make the callPS BUGal put in an order for 100 MS 61 Liberty $20.00 to-day could only ship me 15 this week the balance 4-6 weeks....and I paid ask plus...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:46 - ID#432395)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:46 - ID#350358)

COOL OFF alittle.

Go find some kids playing football. It's educating if you leave it alone.

Good Evening.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:48 - ID#206235)
@ Peace is good too
Apologies for my part in the "overkill". "Its" just that I feel so strongly about.....well...enough is enough!

( Gold, schmold, buy Silver & Platinum! hehehehe )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:54 - ID#206235)
Platinum....... Kaplan's comments
Hmmm, is RJ writing for this guy now? Kaplan's latest on Platinum.

BUY PLATINUM! This precious metal has recently confirmed a multi-year low, its traders' commitments are strongly bullish, and repeated attempts to push the price lower have failed. Media comments about platinum are absurdly uninformed, concerned only with the quantity of the metal that is being shipped from Russia on any given day, as well as mysterious "technical factors". The thin nature of this market will cause any breakout to the upside to be exaggerated, so after establishing a long position, hang in there for a sustained upward run. Platinum's London morning fix of $330 on October 30, 1998 was its lowest fix since December 1985. In order to buy low and sell high, first you have to buy low

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:55 - ID#320136)
Milo Trdr: Actually, hockey's my game. Think
I'll go catch a period or two. Thank you and
good night.

BUGal: Let's kiss and make up. BTW, Ya spelled it
wrong again... ( it's )

Oh yeah... forgot one... Namaste' ayyyyyyyyyyy!!!

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:57 - ID#187109)
perhaps I will make it more clear......
I understand how the 'axe' might have damaged some of yer musical brain cells......sorry.

I 'stood' on bended knee ( can one do that? ) and ASKED her to be my wifeage. She said OKEEDOKEE.......then, I passed out and when I came too someone was shoving GULPS of Cuervo down my still trembling throat. Having choked them down we celebrated till the wee hours......gulping and puffing........and........ ( tee hee ) ........... ( censored ) ...................... ( how apropos ) ......

I did use GOLD with that diamond ringy. Wanted Platinum but it was short notice in St. Thomas USVI.............ya......hoo..... ( ! ) . sweat the details later


(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:57 - ID#71231)
Old - Gold
Specialist short sales - if it wasn't answered before:

The Specialist essentially sells the investors stocks they don't have. They only do this in a big way when they have good reason to believe that the market, or at least the stocks they specialize in, will tank.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 21:58 - ID#350358)
Well ....
It's better than socker ...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:02 - ID#242325)
JP: Let's not quibble about definitions of bull and bear. In fact I agree with you that a long-lived bull is virtually impossible given current valuations. But the fact is stocks have had a huge rally and bonds a big decline when you and Puetz were predicting the opposite.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:03 - ID#432130)
ptwoskool...It really...
...I pretty much agree with your opinion of the market situation, particularly regarding the subject of the Fed and market manipulation. However, the thing that gives me FAITH in my PM investments is the fact the all the manipulation in the world is NOT going to keep this FIAT monetary system going any longer than the VERY near future.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:03 - ID#320136)
Hey Milo...

I won't go NEAR that one!

Sweet Dreams,


(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:05 - ID#411140)
LATER IS NOW GEORGE!!! I am sufficiently intrigued. Direction Down?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:05 - ID#401460)

Gold Option Index^AUX&d=5d


(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:07 - ID#45173)
BUGal: platinum
I'm with ya. Or I can hang onto my dollars. Dah.

Europeans, Chinese, Japanese. Make room for euros. Those babies are comin' home!


(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:07 - ID#206235)
@ Lou - Jan ... Making up is better than breaking up
OK. Kiss...Schmmmacck... Gee, I hope you're female! ( Ooops, might be displaying my homophobia...hehehehe )

BTW, I did the "its" on purpose. Honest! ( Its....Monty Python's Flying Circus... )

hey EB...Congrats ( I think )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:07 - ID#242325)
Oro: Thanks for the specialist definition. I would add that specialists only make markets on the exchanges. There are no specialists for the NASDAQ. When the specialists as a group take lopsided postions on the short or long side, they are seldom wrong.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:07 - ID#286230)
Can it be true?
An economist on local TV just said that the combined assets of Buffet Walton and Gates are greater that those of the bottom 100 million US citizens. Can this be correct?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:08 - ID#227238)
Yes, the primate cage is such a messy place with all that loose testosterone about. But look on the bright side; given another 100 millenia of 'correct thought' augmented with some super estrogen patches and we will no doubt be just plain bitchy instead of surly, mean spirited and inflammatory.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:08 - ID#225369)
That is also what I know;but it is not what I feel-if that makes any sense.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:10 - ID#432130)
Yes, that makes ALOT of sense. That is why I referred to it as a matter of "Faith". Dig it? : )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:13 - ID#320136)
Flying, wish I could be there..

Knew you had it in ya to be a really sweety, BUGal.

Earl: What is this.. a gang bang?

Definitely NASB!!

Just ANOTHER Kitco soiree...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:15 - ID#119358)
@let's see.......those resigning their commissions today..........
Squirrel, Regulus, Rich and Grizz...........well'O'well, you may hide but you cannot stay away from dis' kitco. come home.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:16 - ID#34883)
Squirrel: not a bad idea to take a break. If you run into Grizz out in the woods someplace, let him know that he will be missed here and we won't rib the big guy for getting all emotional like and stormin out a here, with all the archives getting deleted and all that.

As to the minting coins: methinks that the bigger mining companys ( were talking dreamy land here ) would do well to mint their own ( logo/copyright ) and denominated in metric units. I say metric so as not to require a decimal unit bequeathed by the State. This precludes one step into the dimension of fiat land.

I'm losing money but getting some laughs, it's tough being an Atlas.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:21 - ID#227238)
EB ullient:
Congrat's. I think. But you didn't really have to do that. No you didn't. Does CA have a 72 hour reconsideration rule?? Too late?? Oh well. All the best Dude.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:22 - ID#219363)
@Old Gold, Oro
Thanks for the definition of a specialist and the news that they're going short. Those guys must have a fun job on the floor. Probably have to have some crazy in you to start making a market for something you don't even have handy, I guess they'd have to be pretty sure, the alternative seems dangerous for them.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:23 - ID#119358)
one mo'.... ( gulp ) ...........great. yumyum.

nytol.teddO ( copyright )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:23 - ID#30126)
It's probably true, but it's only 'paper' anyhow... :- ) )

These folks could never liquidate all of their holdings and receive that stated valuation. There can be no doubt that they are wealthy, but these theoretical valuations are somewhat more 'splash' than anything useful. It does make a good news story on a slow day though.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:27 - ID#341227)
@LOU JAN and ALL...who said this?
With respect to LGBUGALUBERTY's post at 21:07 tonight as another in an endless spate of personal attacks aimed at me.... here's a little reminder of Mr. Warmth and Congeniality, posted just several days ago ( I could post at least another 50 of these "gems" from this guy but one is more than enough from the a member of the living Brain Dead....
Date: Mon Oct 26 1998 12:48
LGB ( @ Ran...the 29 crash ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ran, watch it now're on a forum that is almost exclusively populated by Mr. Potter's with VERY few George Bailey's!...remember, George was the one who believed in extended credit to his worthy fellow man in the belief that this would allow said fellow man to prosper, create economic growth, and thus help lead the community/country out of the crises! This is the virtual antithesis of everything the true diehard GoldBug believes!

When it comes to hate, venom, and malice, there is nobody like this character...he hates every goldbug on this forum...he despises you all...he condescends to you daily with his haughty, superior, sneering ASB "As Before" comments posted about gold...he ridicules you every day for being stupid to own gold while at the same time he endlessly extolls his beloved Loral stock ( down pretty badly today...great!!!! ) . He does this, in all likelihood, because he is some poor insignificant drone

Yet, at the same time, he pretends to be an icon of altruism. In what respect? Tell us about your community service? How much money did you donate last year? Which community Boards of Directors do you serve on?
How many orphans did you adopt? Are you supporting your parents...and grandparents? How many interest free personal loans did you make to strangers in need?

You don't have to answer me because I KNOW the answer. A malicious character like yourself does nothing for nobody EXCEPT yourself ( and maybe your immediate nuclear family, maybe ) .

So, LGBUGERTY, in my mind, you are the hands down winner of the "Hate Unlimited" award at Kitco. You are the relentless perpetrator of hate crimes on this forum. You hate everybody on this forum who believes in gold as a genuine safe haven...and get no greater thrill than visiting us daily to sneer, deride, and ridicule us for our beliefs. You're so f*king superior to all of us that I just cower in your exalted presence.

Who do you really work for? Not Loral, I am certain. Probably work for Clinton, Rubin, and're their secret agent on this forum, aren't you? Isn't that why you post relentlessly about the stupidity of gold ownership, the gross stupidity of goldbugs, and the divine value of your beloved equities and bonds.

Do us all a favor...drop dead!



(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:29 - ID#242325)
To be fair JP and Puetz are not the only ones with egg on their faces. The esteemed Martin Armstrong of Princeton Economics was projecting a quick drop to 6500 or so just before the market took off. This could fatally damage his reputation. Just something to keep in mind when considering his projection of $200 POG.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:30 - ID#433172)
OK. The reason for making that perdiction isn't based on any kind of understanding it's based on a lucid "dream" or more aptly put a vision since there was no dream content what soever. Just this

My portfoolio includes a nice chunk of Aurizon and it sits on top since it's my only A stock, and is traded on two exchanges. I've been watching it since last spring. I saw this large screen on which a large volume of this stock was being traded, the price wasn't important, but the volume I understood to signify a CHANGE in the market in general. So now we are getting the volume in that stock. Totally subjective, my wife says I will destroy any credibilty I might have, and that's fine with me if it doesn't go down. My track record on this type of experience is pretty good, on this exact type, very good.

If it does'nt happen by Thursday, it's bull, if it does it's definitly bear. CAVE BEAR

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:34 - ID#30126)
The specialists have a very big advantage over everyone else, and that is order flow. If they take a position, and it is wrong, there is usually another order coming in. This allows them an exit from most of their positions. Of course, if you have market mayhem, then it's a different story. Also, specialists offset market risk by being both long and short. That being said, we've had a nice run in equities. Perhaps the phrase, 'profit taking' will be uttered soon. Perhaps the excuse given will be related to the midterm election results or Republicans armed with video cameras at the polls ( a violation of the '65 voting rights act, I believe ) . I also heard one demorat warning of armed Republicans at the polls, talk about desperate demorats...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:36 - ID#267298)

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:39 - ID#30126)
Just think, this weather could be in your future. BRrrrrrr..

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:42 - ID#320136)
Hey guys, let it go. You are all truly wonderful posters
and this site would never be recognized for what it is -
a tremendous source of inspiration and grounding to us all,
in good times and worse ones, were it not for your
collective ruminations.

Farfel, LGB, etc. etc., your views and prose are really
appreciated by most on this site, and I speak for myself
when I say that my knowledge is ever enhanced by your
frequent contributions. Please let the air out of the
bag, and settle your differences for what they are --
differences. Roll up the vendetta.

Fireworks are exciting and they bring on that adrenaline
rush, but peace and harmony are nice to experience now
and then.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:46 - ID#30126)
For better or worse...
Those in the U.S. of A. should go vote early and often. Every vote cast and NOT cast sends a message. So SEND A MESSAGE, please. End of public service announcement...

Good night all, and have a drink before you select the submit button...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:48 - ID#333126)
china's production oversupply many years of grain for 1 billion residents?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:51 - ID#412172)
Re: Specialist
Ripped this off from SI, forgive me John, if you are here ( grin ) . And besides this, there does not seem to be a lot of bears around without all four paws up in the air:

Fleckenstein on specialist-short ratio.

The specialist short-sale ratio is right up to the high we saw just before the break in the summer of 1997. In this decade, it has been higher only once ( early 1991 ) . Going back 10 years, the last time it was this high was right before the crash of 1987. The specialists are kind of seeing it the bears' way at the moment; let's see if they get it right.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:53 - ID#227238)
At the same time we should not forget Erle's dictum: "If voting made a difference, it would be outlawed". ........ vote against the money issues and to hell with the rest. Anything more will just encourage them.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:54 - ID#237299)
You err: Testosteron is a problem in *adult* males.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:56 - ID#284255)
Quip from Dad
"Sedentary occupations," said the professor, "Tend to lessen the endurance."
"I see," said the smart pupil, "The more one sits the less one can stand."
"Exactly," said the professor, "And if one lies a great deal, ones standing is lost completely."

Issue #32
October 30, 1998


I decided to write this as a commentary on an article by Martin A. Armstrong. It was posted on this site:

The author believes that we have entered the final stage of a global liquidity crisis. I think he is far too optimistic. We have entered the preliminary phase of a three-stage global liquidity crisis.

What is liquidity? It is a combination of three factors: ( 1 ) the ability to sell an item with a low
commission or none; ( 2 ) the ability to sell it without advertising expenses; ( 3 ) the ability to sell it
immediately. The ultimate form of liquidity is cash. We sell cash to buy goods.

Here is a rule: cash earns no interest. We buy maximum liquidity by forfeiting interest income. If any asset pays interest, it is not cash. It is a near-cash asset.

What is leverage? It is the ratio between the assets on hand to pay obligations and existing promises to pay.

The concept of cash is far more complicated than Mr. Armstrong says in his essay. So is the concept of a promise to pay. Today, most cash and most promises to pay are electronic. They are computerized entries. Therein lies the problem.


To understand leverage -- assets on hand in relation to promises to pay -- let us look at the commodity futures market, the stock market, and banking.


If I enter a commodity futures contract and promise to deliver a 100-ounce bar of gold bullion that today is worth, say, $30,000, I may have to make a down payment of only $3,000 as earnest money ( 10% margin ) . A more conservative position would be $6,000 ( 20% margin ) .

If I put down 10%, and I agree to deliver that bullion in six months to someone who agrees to pay me $30,000 at the time of delivery, and the price of gold goes to $330 per ounce, I will have to pay someone $33,000 to buy that bar and ship it to the buyer on the closing day. I have
invested $3,000, and now it's gone. Of course, the commodity broker would call me and tell me to put up another $3,000 or he will sell the contract today. I would then get nothing back on my $3,000. If it moves to $350 in one jump, I would owe my broker $2,000. I would be in the hole $5,000 ( $3,000 + $2,000 ) .

But if the price of gold falls to $270, I'm now $3,000 ahead. Someone has agreed to pay me $30,000 for a bar of gold now worth $27,000. I have made 100% on my $3,000 investment. I can sell the contract now and get $3,000. Or I can hold on and see if gold goes even lower.

When you're highly leveraged ( low down payment/earnest money ) , you can win big or lose big very fast. Long-Term Capital Management guessed wrong. It was leveraged at 20 to one ( 5% down ) . It lost big -- so big that the banks that were foolish enough to lend money for the deals had to put up another $3.5 billion in order to stop a crisis sell- off of the fund's assets, which would have bankrupted it, leaving the banks with partial payments or none. The banks are in quicksand. How quick? The markets will tell them, and the bankers may or may not tell the public.


The stock market is leveraged in a different way. If I can get 4% interest for one year at my bank, a $1,000 investment will earn me $40.

To get $40 income from dividends in a stock that pays 2% in dividends ( which it does these days ) , I have to invest $4,000. But it's risky. The stock's price could fall. But it could go up, too. I'm giving up the $80 income I could have earned from my bank ( .04 x $2,000 ) in order to buy a stock. So, I can get $80 a year with far less risk at my bank. I obviously expect the stock's
market value to go up by more than $40, plus the $40 dividend, which may or may not be paid.

But if I decide that the stock's prices will fall, I will sell, so as to preserve my capital.

Where is the leverage? Primarily, in the stock's imputed value. The total value of a company's shares is the number of shares multiplied by the price per share of the last share bought that day. If there are 100 million shares of stock, and the last share bought was $10, then
the market value of the shares is 100 million times $10, or $1 billion.

If the share price of that last share falls to $9, then the value of the company's shares is $900 million. All shareholders experience a loss based on the fall of price in that last share sold.

If dividends are closely related to share price, then a fall in dividends, unless matched by a rise in expectations about future gains, will depress the price of all the company's shares. If the company pays 20 cents a year per share ( 2% ) , and this has sustained a $10 per share price, then a fall to 10 cents will drop the share price to $5. Now the value of all the shares is $500
million. In other words, a fall in the dividend from 20 cents to 10 cents creates a loss of shareholder equity of $500 million. That's leverage.

Then there is margin: bank loans made to buy shares. People can borrow $5 to buy a $10 share. If the share price falls, the lender calls the shareholder and asks him to put up more money to compensate for the fall in price, or else the bank will sell the share. If enough
shareholders decide not to come up with more money, the lending banks or brokerage houses will sell the shares. This forces down the price of the shares, meaning that the imputed value of all shares falls. This is leverage.

So, when investors want cash, they sell assets. They seek safety. When there are margin calls and forced sales, the leverage factor goes against shareholders. It's nice going up; it's bad going down. The greater the demand for money, the more threatening any prior leverage becomes.

When too many of those who have promised to pay default, the demand for cash rises as fear spreads.


This is the truly awesome form of leverage. A modern bank promises to pay a depositor all of his money on demand. But money, legally, is legal tender: paper currency or token metal coins. The depositor can legally ask for currency. The problem is, for every $100 in deposits -- electronic promises to pay on demand -- the U.S. banking system has only $1.17 in currency.

Now, this is leverage. None of this mamby-pamby hedge fund leverage of 20 to 1. No sir, this is the big time: almost 100 to one.

That's the problem. It's going to become a much bigger problem in the next 14 months.


Today, what is called cash is only rarely cash. It's a fiduciary instrument issued by an institution ( bank ) that promises to pay money on demand. It also pays interest. So, it is not cash. Cash pays no interest. We forfeit interest income in order to buy maximum liquidity.

An economist who understands economics defines money as the most marketable commodity. But money is legally defined by the government as "legal tender," which is a
piece of paper or a coin issued by a central bank under the authority of a national government. By law, the creditor must accept payment by the debtor in legal tender money. This means currency.

We have already seen the degree of leverage in banking: almost 100 to one.

Then there is another layer of leverage on top of bank promises: money market funds. Money market funds do not promise to return the capital invested. The funds pay interest to the investors. The funds loan out the money to businesses or governments. The borrowers are considered credit-worthy. They are expected to pay their interest on time. Usually, they do.

By tradition, money market funds lock in the par value of a share at $1. There is no guarantee that this par value will be maintained. For over two decades, it has been maintained. So, an illusion of money market shares as a substitute for cash has been created by the industry.
But these assets are not cash. To get cash, the investor must do the following:

1. Call the money market fund to have it mail a check or wire the money. OR. . .

2. Write a check to his bank, in which case his bank collects the electronic money from the money market fund.

3. Ask the bank for currency.

Currency is legal tender, i.e., cash. Anything else that is called cash is an misnomer -- a hope, not a fact, a promise, not a sure reality. It is an illusion based on a tradition of promises to pay that have been honored faithfully in the past. But what about the future? What if the computers go blind or haywire? What if electricity shuts down? What if money market investors and bank
depositors believe that these two threats are real? What if too many people demand currency? We are dealing with leverage here: promises to pay in relation to the cash on hand to redeem these promises.

For most people, it takes several steps to get access to cash. In addition to the previous three steps, there is usually a preliminary step:

Call a stock market mutual fund and tell the agent to sell shares and deposit the money in the
family of funds' money market fund.

There is at least one phone call involved in most moves into cash, beginning with the sale of shares in a stock market mutual fund. If the phone lines are busy, the transaction cannot be made.

In a stock market meltdown, the phone lines will be busy until the sell-off stage is over.

Also, the stock market mutual fund may have an "in kind" clause that allows it to send you the shares' certificates rather than a check. This will take weeks or months to get to you. In the meantime, the stock market may have melted down completely. Read your prospectus and
any supplemental "on request" prospectus very carefully to see if there is an "in kind" clause.

So, as Forrest Gump's mother might have said, "Cash is as cash does." If someone will accept your money in exchange for goods and services, it's cash. But if conditions change, what you today think is cash may not be cash. Few investors think about this.

In most cases, whatever functions as cash relies on phone lines and computers. If electricity goes off, or if the phone lines shut down, or if the computers shut down, almost all that is called cash today will cease to be cash.

This is why there are at least three stages in the flight to liquidity, i.e., the rush to get cash.

1. Meltdown. Stock market sales as people get assets converted into money market "cash." ( This is usually accompanied by a rush to buy bonds, but this investment strategy will create a
subsequent rush to sell bonds and to get into money market funds, T-bills, or banks. )

2. Bank run. The rush to get currency from banks, leading to the rationing of cash
withdrawals. ( This will be accompanied by a sell-off of money market funds and bonds to get
assets into the banks. )

3. Shutdown. The collapse of fractional reserve banking, leaving only currency.

These stages can overlap, which makes things even more confusing.


We are now into stage one: the sell-off of stocks and highly leveraged currency futures to get into near-cash assets, mainly money market funds and T-bills. There is also a move into bonds, which promise a fixed payout, a promise that will be fulfilled only if

1. the organization issuing the bonds stays solvent;
2. the computers stay up;
3. the banks stay up.

In the rush for guaranteed interest payments, all assets can fall in price: stocks, commodities, real estate. Anything that has a price that is imputed and then multiplied by the quantity of the asset can and probably will fall in price. As each unit falls in price as owners seek to exchange them for near-cash assets, the new price is imputed to the entire quantity. The stock market
averages fall, commodity prices fall, and all but uniquely positioned real estate properties fall.

This includes the precious metals, unless buyers expect precious metals to serve as currency, which most investors do not believe yet. They will believe it, but not until

1. y2k is seen as threatening all other forms of cash except paper money and coins, and
2. it becomes impossible to get currency and coins out of banks.

This, I think, will take place in the second half of 1999. But when it does, very few people will be able to buy precious metal coins because

1. governments will quit minting gold coins;
2. the phone lines of coin dealers will be busy.

In stage one, we will see prices of almost all investment assets fall. The only way to make money will be to go into bonds ( most of the gains are behind us ) or sell short stocks. I recommend the latter strategy. Two funds do this for you: Ursa and BearX. The Ursa fund of the
Rydex family of funds requires a $25,000 minimum purchase ( 1-800-820-0888 ) . BearX is $2,000 ( 1-888-778-2327 ) .

The biggest risk here is that you will stay too long in your money market fund or your short fund. If there is a complete stock market meltdown, the markets will be closed by law or by free market forces. Those people who have promised to pay will default. On paper, you may be
making money, but these are paper returns based on promises to pay. The worse the meltdown, the more the defaults. You may not be able to get your money out at the bottom. Get out in steps.

Ultimately, there is no safe, easy way to hedge yourself electronically against widespread defaults by debtors. There is no way to hedge yourself electronically against a complete computer shutdown.

So, to escape stage one's personal liquidity crunch, you must be in near-cash assets or currency itself. You should not own anything except

1. near cash assets or currency, or
2. bonds, or
3. short positions.

This means no real estate, no gold, no silver, no stocks.

But that's too risky. No real estate at all? What about a survival property? You will need that for stage three. But what if you can't find anyone to sell you the property you want in late 1999? Besides, it will take a year to develop such a property. You will run out of time if you wait. Your money buys you time.

Conclusion: you must put money into an asset whose money price will probably fall between now and the final quarter of 1999.

The same is true of gold coins and silver coins. You hold them now for the same reason that you own a survival property: you may not be able to buy them in the y2k panic of late 1999.

But do not buy real estate or precious metal coins on the assumption that you will sell them at a profit in 1999. Anything that you think you will sell in 1999 should be sold soon -- January 4, 1999 if you're worried about capital gains taxes in 1999. Use the money to short the stock market.

Gold might go up in early 1999 if there is a rush to post-1999 money by investors who are afraid of the banks. It's a thin market. The gold coin market is a much thinner market. Because gold is known by older central bankers as the ultimate reserve, it may resist the downward pressure on other commodities. But we have a generation of central bankers who do not understand gold-based money. They may not defend their banks' solvency by buying gold. They may even sell it for political reasons. Don't assume that gold bullion will go up in early 1999. I would imagine that it is more likely to go up in phase one of stage three than in stage one.

Do not buy gold stocks. Do not buy numismatic coins. Buy bullion gold coins, small weights: tenth-ounce. You want the maximum number of transactions per dollar spent now.

Expect their dollar price to go down until late 1999. That is the price you must pay to get them now. You may prefer to buy them over time, as the price goes down. That's all right if you have enough coins for 2000- survival. Keep selling your bear stock funds in 1999 to buy coins.

Alternatively, you can buy the coins now and sell short gold bullion and silver bullion. Use a commodities broker to do this for you. Put at least 20% down ( margin ) . This locks in your gold or silver price. You aren't trying to make money by selling the metals short. You are trying to lock in the present market value of your gold coins. If your coins fall in value, your commodity futures contracts will be making money. They should offset. You are using the commodities market to hedge the value of your coins. Use the profits to buy more coins. Take delivery of the coins. Always.


This will begin in 1999, probably by early summer. The depression will be here. Unemployment will be rising to double-digit levels. Companies will be going bankrupt.
The slowdown will be worldwide. Stock markets will be at half their present value or less. Fear -- paralyzing fear - -- will be spreading.

At that point, people in the U.S. will begin to move from money market funds and bond funds into FDIC-insured banks. The goal: safety of capital. Some money market funds will be faced with a crisis: not enough liquidity. They will fall below par value price of $1 per share. The
public will learn that no government agency insures this par value.

This will be a move to quality: money markets to FDIC- insured banks.

Simultaneously, there will be a move to liquidity: currency rather than the banks' electronic promises to pay. A worldwide bank run will begin.

Bank runs will accelerate the sell-off in stocks. Panic will spread.

A meltdown in the stock markets will take place. This could happen at any time. I am saying that it will happen no later than summer, 1999.

This will be marked by a new definition of cash: currency. Electronic promises to pay will become suspect. This stage will overlap stage three: the y2k panic.


This is the y2k panic stage. In the midst of lost dreams and broken promises, the public will wake up to the fact that the greatest default in history will hit in 2000. All electronic promises to pay will die. This includes Social Security, Medicare, bank insurance, life insurance, health insurance, fire insurance -- all of it.

This realization will accelerate the run on the banks. If the banks do not start rationing currency withdrawals in stage two, they surely will in stage three.

This is the final move to liquidity. It will be massive. It will be a move from fiduciary money to true cash. It will wipe out a century of promises and three centuries of tradition.

We will see the end of fractional reserve banking. Banks will begin collapsing before 2000. They will all be gone by 2001.

Currency will appreciate as never in history. I think 20 to one is conservative. It may be 100 to one. All money contracts will be broken. No one will be able to repay in 2000.

If electricity fails, as I expect, then the division of labor will go back to the mid-1800's, if things go well. Without a money system, there cannot be a division of labor beyond agricultural face-to-face exchange.

The wealth of nations will disappear. What Adam Smith described in Chapter 1 of his book will be reversed. The pin-makers will lose access to their machines. There will be no pin-making craftsmen to replace the machines.

Do I mean this literally? Do I think women should be buying pins? Yes. Needles, too. You must prepared for a 150-year reversal of the division of labor.


Phase one will begin no later than the fall of 1999. It will be the rush into survival goods, which are produced by cottage industries. Supply lines will jam up.

That's why I think 1998-1999 will be the last year to buy winter clothing and goods. Buy them now.

Enough people ( 5% to 10% ) of the nation will see that y2k is life-threatening. Also, the day that people are told that they cannot get currency out of their banks, they will stop saving money. They will write checks to buy durable goods. They will run their credit cards to the limit. "Why not? They'll lose all the records in 2000."

This will destroy the bond market and mortgage markets. There will be no long-term credit markets by December 31, 1999. No one will loan money when they think that the records will die in 2000. They will not become creditors in a collapsing money market. They will cease lending.

So, the credit market will be hit from both sides: massive consumer borrowing and no long-term institutional lending. Corporate borrowing will be cut way back.

The switch from fiduciary money ( debt-based ) to currency will complete the destruction of the modern economy, which is tied to debt. The threat of the failure of computers will undermine people's confidence in fiduciary money.

The greed factor -- "I won't have to pay back my debts!" -- will combine with the fear factor -- "No one will pay back the loans I've made!" -- to produce the destruction of the world economy.

Almost everyone will want to be a borrower. Almost no one will want to be a lender. That will destroy the credit markets, which are in fact the money markets.

The monetization of everything, 1900 to 1999, will become the de-monetization of everything, 1999-2001.


This will begin in January, 2000. The computers will have shut down, taking with them the social division of labor. Almost no one will have money.

Cash will be king, but what will serve as cash?
Answer: anything that people are familiar with as currency, meaning today's fiat paper money and token coins. Fiat money is real money if the government isn't printing any more of it. Without electricity, fiat money production will cease.

Could we see a 1 for 100 price deflation? Yes, for we could see a 1 for 100 monetary deflation. If electrical power goes off and stays off, we will see this. There will be no electronic money. M-3 plus liquid assets will fall from $7 trillion to zero, literally overnight. The velocity of money will collapse. There will be no banks. Few people will have currency. Money transactions will simply cease for most people in most situations. Barter will replace money. Barter is inefficient. Tens of millions of people will die in the United States if they are without electricity or money. Communities will have to invent new forms of money, new forms of liquidity: bullets,
cigarettes, sugar, property tax IOU's, or whatever creative people can come up with. Meanwhile, today's familiar currencies will function: paper bills and token coins. In a world with no electronic money, today's fiat currency will serve as money.

If electrical power stays up, which does not look likely, bank computers will still be scrambled. It will take many years to get back to manual check-clearing systems. The volume of transactions will shrink dramatically. Costs per transaction will rise. Meanwhile, the division of labor will contract. Unemployment will get into the mid-double digits. A 1 for 3 or 1 for 5 deflation then is more likely than 1 for 100. Bank accounts will not be credited with deposits for weeks until checks clear. Most banks will go under. It will take years for most people to trust them again. Some people never will.

If credit/debit cards survive, the worst of the collapse will be mitigated. We will suffer a depression, but not the collapse of civilization. If the phones stay up, Internet banking will appear. This will do more to revive the economy than anything else. Gold and silver accounts will appear. Some may be 100% reserves; you will pay for having the privilege of storing your wealth and using it for transactions. Remember: you cannot be paid interest on cash. If you can draw your money out on demand, then the bank cannot loan it out.

If the Internet survives, the economic recovery will be much faster: years rather than decades. But the Internet will create great economic and social barriers between those with access to it and those without. An enormous transfer of wealth will take place: from those without Internet skills to those who posserss them.

If the Internet does not stay up, the reverse flow will take place: from the technically skilled to the rurally skilled. It will move from Schwartz and Wong to Bubba. In the long run, IQ counts for more than brawn. In the short run, food counts more than IQ. The Bell curve will shift dramatically to the left if the power goes off.

I hope the power stays up. I hope the phone lines do, too. But I do not believe that the banking system can survive in anything like its present form. It will crash in a wave of bankruptcies ( bank + rupture ) , and it will take with it much of the modern social division of labor.

The international banking fraternity believes that they can create a one-world currency run by a single central bank. That dream is about to shatter as surely as the dream of the Tower of Babel was shattered ( Genesis 11 ) . Man proposes, but God disposes. He is going to dispose of
the New World Order crowd, who have bet their lives and dreams on electronic promises to pay. Don't bet yours.

What about gold and silver coins? Gold coins will not be readily recognized. Silver coins may have no higher value than the face value of today's token ( clad ) coins. It depends on how desperate people become, and how knowledgeable they are about precious metals. People do
not today recognize gold and silver as money. There will be no developed markets in 2000 that tell people how much that gold and silver are worth compared to dollars.

Everything will be negotiable. There will be widespread ignorance, and therefore huge selling fees ( commissions ) .

At that point, do not be in the markets at all. Be outside them. Be self-sufficient. Do not let people know that you have cash. Wait. Live off your stored goods. Stay out of the markets. Do not attract attention.

If you get a very good cash-price deal on some item, fine. Pay cash. But I recommend doing as little trading as possible. If you must trade, do it with goods. Toilet paper will be a good barter item. So will white sugar and coffee.

You do not want to attract envy. Do not let people know you have valuable stuff stored. Set up trades several days before. Let people think that you have to go through a chain of exchanges to get whatever they want.


This is the recovery phase. It may not begin locally in your area until 2002. It may not begin for a decade regionally. It depends on electrical power. If the power goes off, we will not live to see the return of the world we will have lost. It took over a century to build it. The general technolofical knowledge will not all be lost, but the capital will be. It will take decades to train up
people who can apply all of today's knowledge and others who can and will finance it. Ideas are cheap; capital is dear. Entrepreneurship is dearer still. Entrepreneurship will be a scarce commodity in a world filled with emotionally devastated people.

But for those people with hope, capital, forecasting skills, and access to good libraries, the new world will be a place of historically unprecedented opportunity. It will be a world ideal for creative little people. If property rights are maintained, it will be a world for risk-takers.

The revival of markets for gold and silver will begin in phase two, but unless you can get a very good deal as a buyer of precious metals for cash, stay out of these markets until phase three. Do not be a seller of precious metals until phase three. In phase three, I would suggest
buying real estate.

I think real estate is where the post-recovery economic future is. When people want to move, they will not have a developed mortgage market to finance their sale. They will have to take horrendous paper losses on their real estate. The move from fiduciary money to currency will destroy today's real estate prices. Meanwhile, a shutdown of water and power will destroy many properties' comparative value. A two-bedroom 1927 house with a shallow water well in a small town will be worth more than today's $10 million dollar condo in New York City if electrical
power goes off in both places for 60 days.

In 2001 or 2002, sellers will learn that today's prices are gone forever. At that point, they will begin to negotiate seriously. This is where currency, gold coins, and silver coins will be valuable. Until sellers learn the reality of the new conditions, don't be a buyer. Save your currency for the day of realization. When you can buy today's $200,000 home for $2,000 cash, or $3,000 at 3% per annum, with 20 years to pay, think about buying. But there will be another bargain tomorrow. Don't be in a hurry.

Unless you know that you are getting a spectacular deal on some item, don't spend your currency. I think it will take at least a year and probably two or

(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:57 - ID#187109)
let's see.......
Is platinum a buy right these prices.......with the charts telling me what they are telling me...............hmmmmmmmm...

I will wait......the trend is your friend.

Do not try to pick bottom will end up needing to clean your fingernails........uh huh.

I am more inclined to sell the rallies........tick-tock.... the charts


(Mon Nov 02 1998 22:59 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

Time is a watching. ^o-o^

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:00 - ID#284255)
DoD Cooperation with Civilian Law Enforcement Officials

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:02 - ID#227238)
It will be interesting to see if the specialist short ratio will work its magic. At the same time, this last run up from the Greenspan bar is in need of some profit taking.

But following that it would be foolhardy to attempt swimming against the money tide. The fix is in. The bubble will continue to expand, PE's and such to the contrary, until the big money has successfully converted from potential winnings to cash in hand. Far too much is at stake here for the system to allow any disasterous breaks in the general market.

Envy's post from earlier today, was spot on. The process of socializing losses has some distance to run yet.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:12 - ID#45173)
ravenfire: good catch
"Exporters have awoken from their metaphorical 1980s fantasy of selling even just a single sock to every Chinese -- hey presto, a billion socks sold -- to instead find the harder fact of a country with its warehouses stuffed with more than a billion unsold shirts."

Forget about Japan and Brazil. Keep an eye on China. One thing you can count on from the Chinese. Unpredictability.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:13 - ID#430275)
History being made even faster...

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:15 - ID#430275)
Rate cuts not working right....

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:16 - ID#430275)
The snake, raising it's head to strike.....
Date: Mon Nov 02 1998 22:59
sharefin ( Swing chart updated ) ID#284255:

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:16 - ID#411271)
George, lucid dreams are cool. I've been there. Only had a couple myself where I was
able to foretell the future, and one dream I was given information about Harry Reasoner that was confirmed in a news article the very next day.
All very real and very plausible. Bentov's "Stalking the Wild Pendulum" even gives the quantum physics behind the possibility. so thanks for sharing, maybe a big drop will help my POG options. Off to sleep perchance to dream meself.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:20 - ID#219363)
@Gollum, rate cut not working
What's that crunching sound ?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:27 - ID#284255)
Your use of such comments is unaceptable.

"You're so f*king superior to all of us that I just cower in your exalted presence. "

Kindly remove yourself and stop destroying this forum.


(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:33 - ID#237299)
Gollum:@ your 14:31 on wheat
The harvest is in for the year. The floods might mess with the winter wheat a little- but remember that at this point it's still unsprouted seed in the ground. ASGS will kick in money for lost seed. And the spring wheat will be planted next year. ( I was raised on a wheat farm )

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:39 - ID#430275)
The wall
My friends, I wish you the best of luck in the days to come. We have come through the western wall of the hot money hurricane to emerge into the eye of the storm. It was rough sailing getting here, and we have had some time to regain our strength during the restfull lull.

But there are no stars shining down in the sky ahead. Nor does the moon appear in it's accustomed place. Just a solid black wall from the sea up as high as one can see. The dreaded eastern wall.

Wedges have tightened down to their apex, swingsharts have reared up like a cobra in anger, some have seen vision of dire portent, and Puetz has uttered not a whimper. The chorus has gathered around Abbey Cohen to sing great Hallelujahs.

The wall is dead ahead, almost upon us.

The Champagne is still being passed in toast as they dance the last waltz in the great ballroom of the Titanic.

Good luck.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:41 - ID#430275)
In that case, I shall look into calls on rowboats and life rafts.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:41 - ID#237299)
Aurator reminded me today that you once commented to me on the varieties of obsidian. At that time I didn't follow up on your comment, and confess that until he mentioned it today it had slipped my mind.

I often go hunting in the indian ruins locally and find many fine examples, both raw and formed into tools.

So...what is this collection you have?

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:43 - ID#430275)
I'm not sure. It seems to be coming from the engine room.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:44 - ID#373403)
Is there more to the three phase liquidity saga? You posting appears to end in mid sentence.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:46 - ID#320136)
Gollum: The suspense is killing me...
I would like to fill up my dance card. Pray tell,
great Seer, when shall I get my chance to dance
with gold? ( no offense, Gold Dancer )

The night is young, I know, but I'm ready to run out
on Patience.

On that note, folks, I bid you all bon soir.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:46 - ID#266105)

Date: Mon Nov 02 1998 22:07
Selby ( Can it be true? ) ID#286230:
An economist on local TV just said that the combined assets of Buffet Walton and Gates are greater that those of the bottom 100 million US citizens. Can this be correct?


Lo' Selby. If half the households have zero or negative net
worth and I got ten bucks, well..then..

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:55 - ID#227238)
LOL! ... Which says more about the 100 million than it does about the top 3 folks. Unhappily the average net worth of Americans is not very high. 10 grand comes to mind. I suppose that includes Buffett et al.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:57 - ID#284255)
Missing Link
It got cut off:

This is the recovery phase. It may not begin locally in your area until 2002. It may not begin for a decade regionally. It depends on electrical power. If the power goes off, we will not live to see the return of the world we will have lost. It took over a century to build it. The general technolofical knowledge will not all be lost, but the capital will be. It will take decades to train up
people who can apply all of today's knowledge and others who can and will finance it. Ideas are cheap; capital is dear. Entrepreneurship is dearer still. Entrepreneurship will be a scarce commodity in a world filled with emotionally devastated people.

But for those people with hope, capital, forecasting skills, and access to good libraries, the new world will be a place of historically unprecedented opportunity. It will be a world ideal for creative little people. If property rights are maintained, it will be a world for risk-takers.

The revival of markets for gold and silver will begin in phase two, but unless you can get a very good deal as a buyer of precious metals for cash, stay out of these markets until phase three. Do not be a seller of precious metals until phase three. In phase three, I would suggest
buying real estate.

I think real estate is where the post-recovery economic future is. When people want to move, they will not have a developed mortgage market to finance their sale. They will have to take horrendous paper losses on their real estate. The move from fiduciary money to currency will destroy today's real estate prices. Meanwhile, a shutdown of water and power will destroy many properties' comparative value. A two-bedroom 1927 house with a shallow water well in a small town will be worth more than today's $10 million dollar condo in New York City if electrical
power goes off in both places for 60 days.

In 2001 or 2002, sellers will learn that today's prices are gone forever. At that point, they will begin to negotiate seriously. This is where currency, gold coins, and silver coins will be valuable. Until sellers learn the reality of the new conditions, don't be a buyer. Save your currency for the day of realization. When you can buy today's $200,000 home for $2,000 cash, or $3,000 at 3% per annum, with 20 years to pay, think about buying. But there will be another bargain tomorrow. Don't be in a hurry.

Unless you know that you are getting a spectacular deal on some item, don't spend your currency. I think it will take at least a year and probably two or three years for the new economic reality to begin to motivate sellers. Buy only from highly motivated sellers.

I believe that it will take starvation conditions for people to realize that a price level based only on cash is far lower than anything we have seen in a century. People will resist the fact that their $200,000 homes are worth, say, $2,000, or that their labor is worth only 20 cents an hour. They will think that things will get better, that this is a temporary situation. If electricity goes off for
longer than 60 days, it will be a permanent situation. For tens of millions of Americans, it will be a terminal situation.

We have never lived in a world without fiduciary money - -- promises to pay that function as money. Such a world has not existed in the urban West for over 700 years. Yet for a time, the world of cash-only transactions may reappear. I think it will appear in 2000. The question
is: How long will it last? Three months without banks would destroy the division of labor that sustains this society. I am planning my life on the assumption that it will be longer than three years, not just three months.


The flight to liquidity has only just begun. It is in the preliminary phase of the first stage. The stock market meltdown has not arrived.

Here is my recommendation: if you have to own some item to live decently in 2000 and beyond, buy it now. You cannot be sure of getting it a year from now. Forget about falling prices in 1999. Buy your future lifestyle now. This includes gold and silver coins. Pay with a check if
you can, but buy it.

All your other money should be in a defensive position for stage one: money market funds, local banks, and currency. For speculation, short the stock market. Sell all of your urban real estate for cash. Do not carry the paper. If you won't sell it, borrow against it, and use the money to pay cash for the survival property you had better buy before March 31, 1999.

Obey Max's Law: buy the best, pay cash, take delivery.

(Mon Nov 02 1998 23:58 - ID#430275)
My indications are it will be a day or two yet. Japanese markets are closed tonight and the dollar is rebounding from it's recent declines as rate cut hpoes in various foreign currencies are giving it some support.

Gold will begin to move once we get through the initial chaos and shocked disbelief once the wall gets hit.

Still a little time to get some dance shoes.

But I wouldn't tarry.