Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:04 - ID#24135)
I agree..but
Larryn ..
Obviously RSA local prices reflects London
gold price rather that Comex .. The market
here CLOSES at the time Comex opens ..
The market should rally here today ..
But I was speaking generally .. local traders
are also influenced by the gold price in rand
which has been falling.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:05 - ID#228128)
Where now
The bounce I was looking for a couple of days ago has come. The lows of thiis move must hold in order to keep us moving in a positive direction on the short term. The general stock market is extremely overbought and due for a correction soon. This may provide the impetus for gold to run a bit. We will need some heavy fireworks though to get us over 300.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:08 - ID#30345)
a consensus approach to moetary policy is indeed a slow process. Let's go back to the instantaneous reconciliation properties of GOLD. BTW F* undefinable urge to embarrass himself has nothing to do with his heritage...more to do with a certain void.

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:14 - ID#24135)
advanced GET forecasting ..
To check good info on advanced GET forecasts try

there is also going to be a free offer for all
kitconians for an an analysis of any stock they
wish ( provided data is available ) ... coming next

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:16 - ID#16255)
@Envy Dead Money
I am not sure of all aspects of it as far as premiums etc. go.
You may even need to qualify as the croaker, with a statement from
several doctors as to the timing of your demise. I dunno!

A few guys at work have all of thier investment money there and
seem like normal folks to me. One had told me he does not ever sweat
the market cuz he ain't a player. He seemed satisfied with his 10-15%
per year tax free. Sort of an emotional mixed bag I guess.

I have no money there at the moment, But people will continue to die
at an ever increasing rate as the population continues to grow.

Now a Mortician, I could never be! Yuk!

Best Regards, O.L.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:18 - ID#30345)
Here Greenspan is alluding to the speed at which gold reacts:

"Between our Civil War and World War I when international capital flows

were, as they are today, largely uninhibited, that discipline was more or

less automatic. Where gold standard rules were tight and liquidity

constrained, adverse flows were quickly reflected in rapid increases in

interest rates and the cost of capital generally. This tended to delimit the

misuse of capital and its consequences. Imbalances were generally

aborted before they got out of hand. But following World War I, such tight

restraints on economies were seen as too inflexible to meet the economic

policy goals of the twentieth century."

Yep it is as fast as money changing hand...right tolerant1?

see ya...

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:19 - ID#24135)
racism .. genderism ..
.. Its like in "Primary Colours"

1. 69 % of women voted for Boxer in CA.
2. Blacks voted at double their 96
level in key Southern races and in CA.

Good political strategy .. but is it
democracy ??

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:24 - ID#30345)
Any thoughts on the gold reserve level for the EURO? Also, I hope and, I think greenspan will stand pat on rates this time. He gave them one they couldn't plan on last time ( early ) . And will be true to form. Maybe he is playing with the announcement timing on things just to throw the computer traders a curve. this in the hopes of making them more conservatinve? JOPO. over and out.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:26 - ID#30345)
You bet it is democracy. This is a welfare state. Get over it.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:26 - ID#219363)
I'm kinda seeing the other side of it after reading your post and thinking about it, maybe it's not so bad afterall. Not for me though, still too weird. : ) I'm long gold, short equities, and always long life. Don't ever want to be in a market where a cure for cancer causes the market I'm in to crash.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:32 - ID#293385)
Leasing Rates of CB's for gold
are still below 1%. This does not bode well for POG in the near future.What would force the CB's to raise their lease rates?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:46 - ID#284255)
Aussie ahoy
Who has heard the rumour about our army mobilising?

I heard today that it was leaked into the press and was on the radio.

Yesterday when I was out I noticed a few army trucks on the roads.
Semis full of ammunition boxes.

And now I hear this.
Sheeesh, and I thought Ozzies didn't need guns.
What are they mobilising for?

Probably going to keep the immigrants out of our country.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:47 - ID#105135)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

As of last Friday, these Gold funds were in First & Second Place
on 60 and 90 day Select Sector regression tables. Now on a
daily basis, they are outperforming ALL other sectors.

It doesn't get any Better than this!!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 00:57 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

Where to now?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:11 - ID#293385)
Wish I knew for sure! Have bookmarked your site. It is a wealth of information. I wish I knew more about reading the charts and putting them into a more cohesive plan for investing. Thanks for all you do.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:16 - ID#284255)
Or was it Scotland?
Spectre of civil chaos raised by 2000 bug
Secret plans for Straw to head emergency disaster committee

Or Canada, or England, or the USA.

Seems strange that the countries who are the most advanced in remediation.
Are the ones voicing concerns about civil uprisings.
And the use of the military forces to control the masses.

What are these governments not telling their peoples????

We are all being treated as mushrooms.
Kept in the dark and fed on bulls**t.

I guess BC has led the way in lying to his people.
And now the rest of the world sees fit to follow.

Just think!!!
If it's as bad as this in these countries who are at the leading edge.
What's it going to be like in the rest of the world.??

Pollyannas awake, you are being sheepled.

No one is being told the truth by their elected representatives.
And it sucks.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:22 - ID#284255)
I guess it's my legacy to the cyberworld.

I don't feel it will climb much longer.

The wall of worry has been replaced by excessive exuberance.^o-o^

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:27 - ID#24135)
say what??
longj ..
Im over it ..
I left ...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:30 - ID#284255)
Food to survive with.
Sesame seeds and Poppy seeds are the only officially acceptable "spots" that should be seen on the surface of any loaf of bread. Fuzzy and hairy looking white or green growth areas are good
indications that your bread has turned into a pharmaceutical laboratory experiment.

Any canned goods that have become the size or shape of a softball should be disposed of. Carefully.

A carrot that you can tie a clove hitch in is not fresh.

It is generally a good rule of thumb that cereal should be discarded when it is two years or longer beyond the expiration date.

If you can take it out of its container and bounce it on the floor, it has gone bad.

Milk is spoiled when it starts to look like yogurt. Yogurt is spoiled when it starts to look like cottage cheese. Cottage cheese is spoiled when it starts to look like regular cheese. Regular cheese is nothing but spoiled milk anyway and can't get any more spoiled than it is already. Cheddar cheese is spoiled when you think it is bleu cheese but you realize you've never purchased that kind.

When something starts pecking its way out of the shell, the egg is probably past its prime.

Putting empty containers back into the refrigerator is an old trick, but it only works if you live with someone or have a maid.

This is NOT a marketing ploy to encourage you to throw away perfectly good food so that you'll spend more on groceries. Perhaps you'd benefit by having a calender in your kitchen.

Flour is spoiled when it wiggles.

Frozen foods that have become an integral part of the defrosting problem in your freezer compartment will probably be spoiled ( or wrecked anyway ) by the time you pry them out with a kitchen knife.

Anything that makes you gag is spoiled ( except for leftovers from what you cooked for yourself last night ) .

Bibb lettuce is spoiled when you can't get it off the bottom of the vegetable crisper without sandpaper. Romaine lettuce is spoiled when it turns liquid.

If it makes you violently ill after you eat it, the mayonnaise is spoiled.

If opening the refrigerator door causes all stray animals within a three-block radius to congregate outside your house, the meat is spoiled.

Fresh potatoes do not have roots, branches, or dense, leafy undergrowth.

Raisins should not be harder than your teeth.

It never spoils.

You know it is well beyond prime when you're tempted to discard the Tupperware along with the food. Generally speaking, Tupperware containers should not burp when you open them.

Most food cannot be kept longer than the average life span of a hamster. Keep a hamster in or near your refrigerator to gauge this.

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:35 - ID#24135)
woops !
for all
is it my imagination or is platinum in free fall ??
Metallica Presciosa da Roma right ONCE AGAIN !! ??
" my dog he barka da platinum !!"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:36 - ID#284255)
J Stack
There's no other way to describe this except as a runaway mania. Irrational
exuberance or not, it must have the Federal Reserve scared to death. NOW,
the only way they can deal with the emotional frenzy is to supply a monetary
pin. And while that may be unlikely ( currently ) , it removes all incentive
for further interest rate reductions. We'll be EXTREMELY surprised if the
Fed moves on lowering interest rates again as is widely anticipated.

On the technical front, one can't tell much on a continuous rally off the
lows like this.
Technically, we'll see a lot more on the first significant pullback from
this buying stampede.

Most noticeable is the monetary front, where both short-term and long-term
interest rates have been rising ever since the last Fed rate cut. Another
strong vote for no further Fed easing, but also a potential lid on how high
this rally might carry.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:38 - ID#31876)
The Latest From Nick Chase, Reported by Fiend (Thanks Fiend)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:42 - ID#411259)
..... JD .....

Grim Indeedy
If only it would hold at 330
Long enough for me to
Buy a bunch

Told ya' they would give it a whack
First time I've been right about platinum
In six months


(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:53 - ID#284255)
Falling prices raise specter of global deflation
Falling prices raise specter of global deflation

NEW YORK ( AP ) - In Brazil, once the king of hyper-inflation, prices for food
and clothing are sliding. Apartment owners who refused to lease units during
the days of high inflation are slashing rents.

In Japan, food, beer and household goods cost less than a year ago. And
prices for commercial land are off a staggering 63 per cent from 1992. In
China, the government has ordered companies trying to get rid of excess
goods to halt price wars.

From Asia to Latin America, consumers once victimized by surging prices are
experiencing a new phenomenon: lower prices on a broad range of items - from
crude oil, gasoline and farm commodities to computers and new cars.

"For the first time in decades, there is widespread price deflation going on
in much of the world," said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Primark
Decision Economics.

Tumbling prices offer relief to consumers weary of paying more every year
for many products. But deflation, or falling prices, can pose risks and
uncertainties for consumers, companies and the global economy.

In a deflationary spiral, workers wages would fall, leaving less money for
bills and other payments contracted at higher prices.

Consumers would find their key asset - their homes - losing value. Buyers
waiting for prices to fall further would postpone spending, dampening
economic growth.

Businesses counting on stronger prices for their products would earn less
than expected. With smaller - or no - profits, they would have difficulty
paying wages and keeping current on debts. Bad debts would mount at banks,
which would curtail lending.

No one is yet predicting such a destructive cycle in North America, but
economists are seeing more signs of falling prices and assessing the risks
to the economy.

"The prospect of deflation was laughable a year ago," said Greg Mastel of
the Economic Strategy Institute in Washington. "Now it is a real risk
( although ) a low percentage risk."

U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern recently
about the prospect. "Deflationary forces are continuing to emerge," he said
in congressional testimony.

The possibility of widespread price declines causes unease because the last
time there was a sustained period of deflation was during the 1930s

The current round of U.S. price weakness has its origins in the financial
chaos that began more than a year ago in Southeast Asia. With Asian
economies weakening, demand for crude oil and other commodities skidded,
pushing prices lower.

Price-cutting by Asian manufacturers has forced American companies to lower
what they charge for such goods as computers and new cars.

American farmers have been especially hard hit by stumbling prices for beef,
pork, corn and other goods, which Asian countries had in recent years
snapped up in large quantities. Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman says
farmers are in their worst crisis in a decade.

So far, U.S. consumers have benefited from the price plunges.

In the United States, the inflation rate for the first nine months of the
year was a mere 1.4 per cent - better than the 11-year low of 1.7 per cent
recorded for all of last year.

In Canada, the inflation rate has dropped to 1960s levels. In September, the
annual rate dipped to 0.7 per cent, down from 0.8 per cent in August.

Deflation has shown up strongly in wholesale prices, which are charged by
farms, factories and other producers. For the first nine months of the year,
U.S. producer prices declined at an 0.8 per cent annual rate, compared with
a drop of 1.2 per cent for all of 1997.

Wholesale prices also have fallen in other western countries, including
Germany and France. Perhaps nowhere, though, have prices plunged so far so
fast as in Brazil.

Not so long ago, the economy of South Americas largest country was crippled
by runaway inflation. In 1994, consumer prices shot up 2,400 per cent, and
the government imposed a stabilization program.

Brazils consumer prices slipped in July, August and September, the first
back-to-back price declines since the government began compiling the figures
in 1979.

 The Canadian Press, 1998

(Fri Nov 06 1998 01:58 - ID#31876)
John Crudele - "New York Fed Nearly Admits Rigging The Market"

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:06 - ID#33184)
No rate cut for the FED ?
The rate on U.S. 3-mo cd's has climbed to 5.30% from 5.20% yesterday and as low as 5.08% one week ago. The money markets have totally priced out even the risk of a Fed ease at the November 17 FOMC.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:28 - ID#341226)
@CHASABAR...well, if some people don't like me....
...on this "illustrious" forum , then at least they're thinking about me. As for you, you appear on this forum as a great intellectual cipher. Ergo, nobody ever thinks about you. Nothing. So, tell me, are you proud of your complete vacuousness...your effective absence of existence?



Chasabar said:

Date: Thu Nov 05 1998 22:40
ChasAbar ( F* ) ID#287358:
Copyright  1998 ChasAbar/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I see that you are halucinating again, trying to make believe that the reasons people don't like you is somehow not *you*.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:32 - ID#288115)
Wanna see something scary?
Going through my end of week routine I decided to take a look at the weekly chart of soymeal, and what I found literally made my heart skip a couple of beats. Starting with the week beginning 05/16/97 and ending with the week beginning 09/05/97 tell me what do you see? Compare this weekly soymeal chart to the current weekly chart of the S&P 500.

I know these two markets have absolutely nothing to do with each other but, myself being a chartist I find this similarity astounding. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Try these two links for both charts and see for yourself.

Or maybe I'm looking too hard for monsters.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:36 - ID#28882)
Bart: This is silly (read Shutup!).

All petty, childish personal attacks ( see prev msg, among others ) should be met with a warning and then a suspension. This plain ol' bullshit. Please let's grow up a little, eh?


John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:37 - ID#24135)
platnum is crazy ..
for RJ ..
Joseps calls a low in place IF the
future holds above about 345 .. maybe
we have that ??? ( it went back up in
its down trend channel and maybe broke
through the top side !!
Its joseps versus the MP da R.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:40 - ID#266105)

Soylent green.

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:42 - ID#428218)

.....falling back into your "farfetched" ways...........

What IS the price of GOLD ????!!!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:44 - ID#266105)

A good job.

A loving wife.

President Clinton.

Jumbo shrimp.

micky finn
(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:49 - ID#293379)
The sad thing qbout that article is that he may be speaking the truth, and I don't think anyone cares.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:50 - ID#341226)
@DISNEY....interesting index you compiled....
... your PAJI ( Perceived Average Jewish intelligence Index ) is certainly an interesting construct. In fact, I actually compiled an index too. It has nothing to do with verbosity but rather pomposity.

I call it the South African Pompous Son-in-Law Index ( SAP -SILI ) ...I have discovered that the more losses a son-in-law suffers in the gold market, then the greater the backlash from his mother-in-law as she sees her daughter's financial support dissipate. Moreover, the greater his pomposity as he continues to make these mistakes ( e.g., shorting Homestake during its 60% rise in price during September ) , then the greater the backlash from the mother-in-law. As the backlash increases in intensity, the son-in-law develops greater hatred for the mother-in-law and allows these negative feelings to overflow to Jews in general.

Don't you think my SAP-SILI index has validity?



(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:50 - ID#248170)
Hungry bears in Hungary
Does anyone know why the Hungarian stock market is down 69.07% today as per Or is this a mistake ?

Thank you in advance

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:53 - ID#341226)
@HAGGIS GREENSTONE....tell me, buddy....
...regarding my earlier message. What is going on with Homestake and Prime and the Baron Von Finck?

What's the "inside?"



(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:55 - ID#31876)
@Micky Finn
Lord Acton - "Power tends to corrupt and absolute power
corrupts absolutely."

Today's version - "All weakness tends to corrupt, and
impotence corrupts absolutely."

(Fri Nov 06 1998 02:56 - ID#266105)

leland-- crudele is loopy.

crazytimes-- murphy is loopy.

disney-- disney is loopy. But you knew that.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 03:20 - ID#230243)

Can anybody explain how Brazil with large foreign debts coming due and the monied interests fleeing the Real can be experiencing deflation in everyday living costs.

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 03:29 - ID#24135)
your query ??
for F*

None whatsoever ..

keep up the good work .. and just
for the record .. never shorted
homestake in my life .. took
puts once .. made money.. sorry..
... you're going great ..
... its down another point ..
.. Id love to be able to short
THIS index.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 03:35 - ID#33184)
London gold opens at 294 USD

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 03:57 - ID#33184)
A short story snipped from the net ...
Once upon a time there were shepherd dogs ( read central banks ) protecting the inoccent sheep ( read currencies ) from the bad wolf read speculators ) . A lot of water has flown down the river since that time. The shepherd ( read politicians ) thought that he can bark louder than the dogs, got his gun ( read fear of hedge funds liquidations ) and, to be on the safe side, tied the sheep with a rope and let the bad wolf starve to death. Then the sheep, tied as they were, could not reach the grass to feed and starved to death, too. The end of the story? There was no more wolf, there were no more dogs, there were no more sheep, so the shepherd had nothing more to worry about.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 03:59 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease rates
For Thurs 05 Nov calculated from data published in today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.58---------------4.11-------------3.75-----------------3.26
Gold Lease Rate---0.70---------------1.20-------------1.31-----------------1.65
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ------ ( - 0.03 ) ----------- ( - 0.07 )

Silver Lend Rate----3.80--------------3.10--------------2.20-----------------2.00
Silver Lease Rate---1.48--------------2.21--------------2.86-----------------2.91
( Change ) -------- ( - 0.10 ) -------- ( - 0.10 ) ------- ( - 0.20 ) ---------- ( - 0.10 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .
The lines labelled ( Change ) = changes in lease rates since previous day's figures.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 04:43 - ID#21275)
They are becoming carbon copies of the USA

(Fri Nov 06 1998 05:11 - ID#21275)
the new definition tangible asset is a stock certificate

(Fri Nov 06 1998 06:03 - ID#230376)

looks like the spread is about to narrow. a good trade ? at least you can eat the meal !!! ( ; - )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 06:04 - ID#153110)
Posting the phrase "Going to the Moon" requires no nod to me. It was an interesting experience to post on the matter here. The subject has more relevance to "the gold market" than commonly perceived, I think. NASA's presentation of Man on the Moon inspired religious feelings in people. It was a miraculous conquest of the Laws of Nature, a capstone event in the history of The Church of the Moon Walk, UFOlogy, and Alien Life Forms. The limits imposed by the Laws of Nature on vacuum, convection, mammalian biology, radiation, and meteroite impact frequency do not persuade those who believe technology can conquer all. In their minds Man on the Moon is simply a repetition of the example of the airplane overcoming the law of gravity. Apparent miracles from technology have fostered a climate in which irrational belief on scant evidence is easily aroused in our time. "Alar", "second hand smoke", and "global warming" come to mind, but the list is practically endless. Not without reason, people believe in science and technology, so it's not hard to slip political deceptions in under cover of science and technology.

In the twentieth century betting against technology has been a losing proposition comparable to betting against the stock market since 1982. In my view what has been expressed in the DOW demonstrates that some manias are cultural, not simple market phenomena. Is not Alan Greenspan the fiat credit economy's counterpart to Chris Craft, NASA Mission Director ? The Fed, the DOW, & Wall Street is technology pitted against the Laws of Nature, is it not ? Human fiat credit money pitted against natural, gold money. The argument of the "money supply" crowd is quite simply that our economy should not be limited by natural money when our society can put a Man on the Moon. Belief in artificial fiat credit money, belief in artificial persons created by statute, belief in artificial valuations of assets, and belief in the successful provision of an artificial environment for Man on the Moon seem to me to be a common thread. It is easy to lose sight of the fact these beliefs are forced on people by law. My legal tender for my labor funds NASA and Social Security and National Debt despite my dissent. It is easy to forget that, in the words of Lord Whitehead, man's power over nature is also the power of some men over others with nature as their tool. American Empire power has been projected as much by its power from monetary technology as from military technology. A space suit is comparable to the American artificial money Bubble. The Euro is then comparable to a meterorite that punctures the Bubble and lets Nature in. But it is money by committee and will destroy itself in the aftermath of its impact. Nature is going to roar as she does when a dam breaks.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 06:38 - ID#43349)
This might not be such a good day
I've got a baaaaaad feeling about the POG. I hope it's just something I ate.

The bond market has been greatly overbought in recent months due to flight money and has become very volatile of late:

The day before yesterday large new issues coming to market drove prices down. Yesterday, helped by an "inadvertant" early release of economic data prices started to recover but AG's comments put a damper on that:

During all this there was a gold dinner going on that took many traders away from their NY posts. The guys left on station began playing around, and with the turmoil in the bond markets were able to bid gold and the xau stocks up quite a bit more to add to the move that had come the day before in response to the bond market decline:

Date: Thu Nov 05 1998 16:11
FOX-MAN ( FWN comments regarding "head and shoulders" pattern... ) ID#288186:
Copyright  1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The dollar has not been falling during all of this, so the moves have been based on nothing more substantial than a spooked herd attitude that may well be abateing as the bond markets calm, the regular traders return to their desks to see what the standins have wrought in their absence, and the week comes to an end.

In fact, bonds may rebound in light of the fact that rates have for the moment become very attractive.

If bonds rebound very strongly.....well, it would not be good for the POG.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 06:48 - ID#33184)
Negative interest rates
"The solvency of Japanese banks is coming under the utmost scrutiny. So much so that in the last few days leading western banks have cut their yen deposit rates to below zero. Although the 3-month LIBOR, the rate at which banks lend to each other, remained positive for Japanese yen yesterday, the 39 bps paid was the lowest level ever recorded. JP Morgan and Barclays Capital, among other institutions, however, would only accept yen deposits at negative nominal rates of interest."

Source: ITC News

(Fri Nov 06 1998 06:58 - ID#34883)
"Power kills, absolute power kills absolutely"===========================

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:08 - ID#348257)
sharefin - your 1:30
Thank you much. I have run out and stocked up on salt, hamsters, and chip dip. The latter to play with during those long desolate hours locked in the basement with the family. Pepi likes to chase a ball now and then, too.

You did leave out one very important item, but I think I have it covered. The olives for the Martinis...they keep best when put IN each filled glass. This way they are ready for use each night. You can also tell how long you've been underground in your bunker by the empty glasses. That is, if you have ANY self control.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:08 - ID#219363)
When you start hearing things like "highest gains recorded", "lowest rates on record", "biggest move ever in a single month", or "not since 1987", it's time to be out of the market. : ) Been hearing stuff like that a lot lately.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:13 - ID#348257)
as a rabid chart-gazer myself, I enjoyed the implications of the Soy Meal/S&P comparison. For an even scarier belly laugh, go back to a chart of the DOW or S&P for 1963 - 66. I have been saying for a long time now that this market looks a lot like 65/66 brewing all over again.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:14 - ID#348257)
Envy 7:08
Most contrarian opinion I've heard...ever!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:27 - ID#348257)
Friday morning at the chartz
The final breakdown pattern of this current bear market in gold made by Comex prices into the early September low is highly reminiscent of the pattern made from November '84 to a similar bottom in March '85. Gold then rose from roughly 285 then to 500 in '87. That dropoff of a couple of days and recovery marks the exhaustin of the bear. If the base is in place we can begin the race!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:31 - ID#224230)
@mike Sheller
Just a brief "Goodmorning" from Thailand

Chicken man
(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:36 - ID#341297)
Mike Shellar @ Charts that are sweet
Ever look at the CPI vs. sugar on the long term....CPI and sugar have the very same spikes!! sweet it is...or should I sweet it might be...that would be a train worth catching...$.06 to $.60...

Just a sweet thought..Chicken man..

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:41 - ID#233379)
Noah's Son Shem
Sorry gang I am a devout Goldbug but I have just received my password and have been dying to weigh in on the debate on Judaism.

First off,according to my 1984 Webster's definition of Semite:A member of any of a group of Middle Eastern peoples,esp. Arabs and Jews.I have also read that Semite means a descendant of Noah's son Shem.

The recent debate on 'What is Judaism' never approached the obvious- Tribalism.The various tribes,of which we NorteAmericanos are the most familar are the Ashkenazy ( I guess actually sub-tribes of Judah and Benjamin ) or "caucasian " Jews.Some time in the 9th century the rulers of Khazaria ( an area near the Crimea and hence,the Caucas mtns. ) converted to Judaism and made it the state religion.There is a website dedicated to Khazarian Jewry.

Recently,a report on WorldNetDaily,stated that possibly one of the lost tribes of Israel,the Menasseh,where currently living on the Burmese-India border and still practiced Judaism,although most where currently Messianic a

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:52 - ID#45173)
Mike Sheller -- XSYS
I agree that yesterday's performance does not predict tomorro's. A company that loses money for a long period and that cannot get more funding needs to start earning profits or, eventually, it will go out of business. Astrologicals aren't going to help their balance sheet. No?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:56 - ID#224230)
@SIOP - The Menasseh Tribe - very interesting for goldbugs....
I live just south of Burma ( now called Myanmar ) , here in Thailand, and heard from a friend just back from a visit, that for the lat 2 months the Menasseh Tribe have been selling everything they possess: furniture, livestock, mothersinlaw etc. to buy up all locally available supplies of GOLD in the ever popular 100Baht 24K ingot bars. At 297,500 Kyat ( about 2US$ ) above the NewYork spot price, too!

Had you heard this too ?
Do they know something we don't ?

; )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 07:59 - ID#421269)
Changing Times

With sorrow I must report, the Junk Yard Dog is dead, and the Body Ventura is now the MIND. Whats the world coming to?

Steve in TO
(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:00 - ID#287337)
PPT - John Crudele has uncovered . . .
another branch of the operation.

I thought it was all being done by the Treasury Dept. via S&P contract purchases.

Now it turns out there is a guy at the Fed who trades information with traders who can influence the markets.

If you or I do this it's called 'insider trading' but when the Fed does it it's rationalized as 'stabilizing the markets. Anyhow, forget about the little guy having an equal chance.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:04 - ID#35571)
@Steve in TO
The little guy never HAS had an even chance, with or without the PPT.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:09 - ID#233379)
Thailand has always intrigued me in how it remained independant in the face of British colonialism to the West and French colonialism to the East.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:16 - ID#35571)
Sometimes we must distinguish between the past, the present, and the future. Prices are determined by the past in the present. Surprises come from the future.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:18 - ID#224230)
@SIOP - Thailand
Glad you didn't take offence at my dry sense of humour....

Yes - good question - infact, The Good Question about Thailand -
And the perhaps simplistic answer - Buddhism - the middle path.

Why invade us and colonise us when you're welcome to COME ON IN ANYHOW !

Enjoy our non-ideological hospitality, our excellent cuisine and our beautiful women. Don't spoil it with anything so crass as a war, a battle or all the hassle of colonising us. Do that elsewhere and come here for from well deserved R&R !

Which pretty much sums up the history of Thailand since those pesky BURMESE last invaded and sacked Ayutthya ! Cheers.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:22 - ID#31868)
Yup...use it or lose it...yup...uh huh...
In questions of power, then, let no more be said of confidence in man,
but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution. --
Thomas Jefferson


(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:24 - ID#35571)
Bond market starting on a positive (for bonds) note

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:29 - ID#30126)
I've found that the POG moves are 'reliable' when accompanied by similar action in crude oil. There wasn't any this time. What you now have is a stock market running on nitro methane fumes. The liquid has been used up. So, let's see how high stocks can go on fumes. Just be prepared for gravity to take over. Remember, those Fed rates didn't get cut because MF values fell. They were cut because of 'increased systemic risk'... to paraphrase someone.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:30 - ID#35571)
A double bottom?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:31 - ID#30126)
Gollum, whooooops, that should be...
...POG moves are more 'reliable'...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:31 - ID#45173)
You can guess at a company's future by looking at their past and present, what they say about their past, present, and future, what their balance sheet says ( especially DSOs ) , what their industry is doing, their standing in their industry, new products under development, their relative standing with distributors and resellers if their products are sold via a channel, the status of key employees that drive innovation and thus the differentiation and, assuming there's earnings to be made after they finish competing with the other guys, future profitability. This I can say about the high tech racket because I've been in it for so long. My guess is that the bridge reinforcement biz ain't so different that some of the same rules apply. By the way, I ignore what the press says about them.

Nonetheless, I did buy some XSYS. I'm hoping their stock climbs off the floor ( it has gone from the carpet level to under the carpet since I bought it ) when their new products ship and they become profitable. They are just as likely to go out of business. So, it's a gamble not an investment.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:32 - ID#30126)
Need more coffee............

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:34 - ID#35571)
I agree, there is no wind in the sails. Lanyards flopping listlessly against the masts. Just drifting in and out with the tide. Even the seagulls are just sleeping in the sun.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:36 - ID#35571)
You can establish a trend by looking at charts, estimate future trend by looking at fundamentals, but surprises come from neither.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:38 - ID#45173)
Rate Cuts
Were made due to a liquidity emergency, i.e., "systemic risk." AG says the emergency is over, confidence is returning. Ergo, no rate cut in November. Has the stock market already priced in a rate cut? We shall find out today.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:39 - ID#35571)
With regard to XSYS, I would hazard to say their immediate future depends upon how quickly they finish the current jobs they are working on so as to get paid. Good or bad weather in California will be a factor. What do the charts say about California sunshine?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:40 - ID#31868)
Everything is just peachy...NOT...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:42 - ID#31868)
sorry about you don't have to go to full text to get the link on my previous post
on the Y2K problems already surfacing and that have surfaced...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:43 - ID#31868)
just go to full text
it just refuses to link out otherwise...Namaste'

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:45 - ID#233379)
Esotericist-Can't download your 08:18
But here's the link to that Manasseh ( I misspelled it previously ) report:

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:46 - ID#45173)
Surprises come from a lack of understanding, either because the information needed to predict is hidden, intentionally or not, or the needed information describes a situation that is too complex to comprehend or the information is coming at you too fast for you to process and react to rationally.

The challenge of risk analysis is that the thing that you are most worried will happen, the event you are hedged against, doesn't happen. Instead, a completely unforeseen event occurs, usually when you most expect no events at all.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:49 - ID#233379)
Chinese Panda Coins
Does anybody know if the Chinese Panda coins are still available or have they been banned for high lead content as have the Chinese made:chalk,crayons,coffee mugs,mini-blinds,etc.?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:52 - ID#35571)
Quantuum mechanics suggests that sometimes there is NO information to predict the surprise. What happens happens.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:52 - ID#45173)
It rarely rains in S. CA, but in recent years there have been exceptions. Unfortunately, no one can predict them.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:56 - ID#31868)
I just love it when a fascist plan come together...NOT!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 08:59 - ID#45173)
Lead in the Pandas? Horrors! I hadn't heard that. Lead is an odd choice of alloy, since you usually want to use something like silver that makes the gold harder. If it's true that they use lead, the coins would not be banned for that reason, unless they were sold in a way that increased the chances that people, especially children, might ingest them. Personally, I only eat the little gold coins since the larger ones are hard to swallow and make a funny sound when I run. I won't eat any more Pandas until we sort this out.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:00 - ID#370236)
EJ & Gollum
FWIW, Farmers almanac says it's gonna be a cold, dry winter in SoCal.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:00 - ID#35571)
A lot of money will be made from Y2K
If you are good, you can make money by selling an imperfect product and then make even more money by selling the improved version:


(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:02 - ID#31868)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulp and a puff to would seem that you are certainly
not alone in your vivid concerns regarding Y2K...but then again I too look at the enormity of the implications and believe that 1999 and 2000 will be times filled with fiasco and debacle...

"Business ignores the countdown to chaos"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:02 - ID#147201)
Esotericist re tribal switch to gold
How about emailing me for some discussion too preliminary to post. Charlie Thank you

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:03 - ID#185448)
Gollum, the dancing Wu-Li-Master
Schrdingers cat

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:04 - ID#119358)
must've been a bad coconut. perhaps a pineapple? tonight. GO GOLDBUGS!!!! off to da' office to oooze give it away..........away.....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:08 - ID#31868)
Pricless...they just put it right out for the world to see..."Clintler the Chinese Puppet"...
Warning to US on Dalai Lama trip

China toughened its line on Tibet yesterday, warning President Bill Clinton not to meet the Dalai Lama as the exiled spiritual leader began a 10-day visit to the United States.

"If the United States allows the Dalai Lama to arrange meetings with its leadership, it is playing a role in supporting his activities which seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people," complained Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao.

"The US side has repeatedly promised not to support Tibetan independence. We call on the US side to adhere to its commitment and not meet the Dalai Lama."

The Dalai Lama is likely to meet Mr Clinton early next week and may discuss a statement he is preparing.

This could go some way to meeting preconditions for the resumptions of discussions which President Jiang Zemin set in June after Mr Clinton had urged a face-to-face meeting with the Dalai Lama.

But China seems anxious to damped down any expectations of a breakthrough. A State Council statement issued yesterday said Beijing did not recognise what it termed the "illegal government in exile".

A spokesman said it was "obvious that anti-China forces in the international community are still trying to use the Dalai Lama to put pressure on the Chinese Government".

Contacts between Beijing and the Dalai Lama were "an internal affair".

The spokesman said the Dalai Lama should not use them "as a pretext to distribute propaganda and sway public opinion".

"This demonstrates his lack of sincerity," he said.

The Dalai Lama was beginning his visit in Charlottesville, Virginia, where he and eight other winners of the Nobel Peace Prize were due to attend a conference centred on human rights and conflict resolution.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:10 - ID#31868)
oops...don't know what happened to the tag line...that last post was from the
South China Morning Post...Namaste'

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:12 - ID#45173)
Thanks for looking it up. Has anyone ever done an correlation analysis of the FA? I'd get excited if the correlation is better than 50/50. But if that were the case, I'd bet someone would already have a FA derivative on the market.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:14 - ID#45173)
IBM is making a killing selling new AS/400's to companies that have old mainframes that IBM says, "can't be made Y2K compliant."

Aragorn III
(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:19 - ID#212323)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:21 - ID#413109)
Not being a fundamendalist, by nature, but observing and keeping my ears open to various
bits of information, I come to the conclusion that for the last several months, frightened funds
from the ends of the earth, have settled in the US markets, especially the long term bond and
treasury market. When it started to go south, a portion of these funds went into the stocks,
and precious metals. This would explain the accumulative period with large volume, while the
stocks were going side ways within a range.
Now, at least for the near term I see there may be some changes. The bonds and treasuries
should test their tops, as well as the stock markets, and the PMs could test their bottoms. Sexy.
Like a said, I'm not a fundamentalist, but the charts also look as though this theory may be in the
The long term holders of PMs should sit tight, and possibly buy on dips. Those inclined to short
or buy puts, well on any rally this would seem logical to me.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:22 - ID#50148)
Systemic risk... Jobs report came in much weaker than expected. Manufacturing down again due to Asian 'slow down'. Is the LTCM thing over yet? A funny thing happens when you kick over those rocks and logs in the woods, all kinds of creepy crawly things go scurrying for cover. Enjoy the 'after burner' while it lasts, because after this it will be, 'where's the fuel?'

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:27 - ID#35571)
Yes, I would think Y2K should be extremely bullish for computer software and hardware manufacturers. As well as the manufacturers of any sytems which might be vulnerable. Yhe only thing that sells better than greed is fear.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:31 - ID#50148)
You know....
It really is funny to hear all of the talk for another rate cut as a boost to stocks. Consider why the rate cuts occurred and the earnings reports that have come out. The Fed lowering rates implies a slowing economy, which implies slower earnings growth or ( ! ) reporting losses. No, the term 'negative earnings growth' will not be used by me. It is an oxymoron. When was the last time that you had negative height growth? As in negative growth or perhaps I went up down the stairs???? :- ) ) Let's be fair and non Orwellian. Negative growth is double speak for the ugly business term, 'CONTRACTION', as in loss.

EZ Believer
(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:34 - ID#173262)
Panda.....Well put !

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:37 - ID#350194)
The Elections in the U.S. are OVER and as far as I know there are NO new religions,
advocating selling ALL of one's worldly possessions in time for the year 2000, except perhaps the one mentioned earlier today. Welcome SIOP, but perhaps you ( and some others ) have missed the many posts BEGGING the SPECIFIC religious and political talk to go elsewhere. This is a GOLD forum, NOT Sunday School Class or American politics 101.
"Date: Fri Nov 06 1998 07:41
SIOP ( Noah's Son Shem ) ID#233379:
Copyright  1998 SIOP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sorry gang I am a devout Goldbug but I have just received my password and have been dying to weigh in on the debate on Judaism..."
Don't be SORRY - Just refrain! Not meaning to pick on you SIOP.
EVERYBODY should cut out this nonsense.
Bart's bandwidth is precious, Let's save it by TRYING to stay on topic a little more than we have been.
'Nuff Said'.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:42 - ID#258427)
Bailed on GSR
at 1 5/8....looking for a pullback...up 35% this week...why be greedy NOT

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:44 - ID#245136)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:45 - ID#147201)
Panda at 9:31
Cutting thru the crap. You got that right. It's always refreshing to see somebody hit the facts hard, Charlie

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:48 - ID#350194)
Gold, Politics and Religion
BTW - Mozel's 6:04 is an excellent example of incorporating NON-specific religious and political postulation into a gold related post on this GOLD and PRECIOUS METALS FORUM. Double 'Nuff Said. ;- )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:49 - ID#45173)
Short the BovespaBrazil shares soar ahead of much-awaitedIMF deal
"Brazil shares soar ahead of much-awaited IMF deal"

The market will plunge when the actual IMF bailout announcement is made. The good news: their economy won't suddenly implode due to a short-term debt driven currency crisis. The bad news: their economy's recession will accelerate due to higher taxes and other austerity measures, eventually leading to a currency crisis. They have chosen slow death over fast death. Rational, but not good for stock prices.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 09:58 - ID#368244)
@ Mooney


(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:12 - ID#113316)
That coffee break helped! good post.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:23 - ID#35571)
Viva Brazilia!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:23 - ID#389387)
Right now,
she is a cow.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:25 - ID#389387)
speaking of cows
Look at Boston Chicken.
Down 31% right now.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:26 - ID#229207)
I wanna buy some platinum
Somebody stop me!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:30 - ID#35571)
Supposedly the market sees all, knows all ( hah! ) . Therefore the market is depressed when it sees the economy is slowing and earnings will be declining from where it would be if things were looking better.

When a rate cut is announced, the market becomes less depressed even if it still is not too damn happy.

Prices rise, not because things are now looking up, bit rather because they are not looking as bad.

Coming disaster can be bullish, if you had been expecting coming catastrophe.

Though, personally, I'd be running the other way.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:32 - ID#371229)
local paper business headlines, Greenspan adds bull to market...
Steve Briese in "Trends in Futures" says a close this week above the 62% retracement of former bear move indicates a return to the bull market. He further characterizes it as the "greater fool" market, as in with no substantial dividends money willl only be realized by selling to a grater fool. One most also swallow the distaste of abetting Abbey Cohen's call to new market highs. Briese still caution investors on the short side of bonds, as every day that the market continues up,up, up with no backtracing and filling in increases the liklihood of a quick and severe move down, down, down. Briese also says 24 and 48 month index cycles suggest moves down onto December!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:32 - ID#35571)
Remember this?
Metals just hanging there waiting to see if new money is going to come rushing in. Waiting, waiting....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:33 - ID#21275)
Mr. Greenspan has a Bear by the tail
Big AL knows the two prime movers are greed and fear and he has chosen to stroke the greed libido.
Clintler effects ever one.
No recommendation but this looks likes the greatest shorting opportunity since I started playing this thing in 1962

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:35 - ID#35571)
Looks like NEM has broken support

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:36 - ID#284255)
Lots of dollars prior to the date but after?

IBM's 10Q report. Scroll down to year 2000 section report.

To check out a company's Y2k position
Read the section on Year 2000 on their 10Q report.
Some are quite revealing.
Specially the utilities.

Good article on Bios but no mention of the RTC problem.

Where are you going to party???

So long as you've got a still you'll be smiling.
Forget the hamsters.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:38 - ID#339274)
Timecycle top
FWIW mainmarket topping 12:30 est

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:46 - ID#35571)
After, there will be losses of course. Especially to those who didn't pay their dues. This will be even MORE bullish for the makers of the fixes.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:51 - ID#254386)
The f word
Bart, perhaps you could rig up an f* survey? I feel it is poisoning this great site. Sure, we have had our BBWs and LGBs and BUGALs and RJs who by virtue of their dispositions ruffle a few feathers, but like Gunny this guy is pure venom. I get the distinct impression that his mission is nothing but destruction. Could he be descended from that ancient tribe, the lesser-known "Rubiclinspan"? Legend has it that they could smoke cigars through their lower orifices but could not manage it at higher levels - their speciality was exhaling pure sh%te.

Thanks ( unpresumptiously )


(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:54 - ID#284255)
More losses to be carried by the taxpayer.
And the games goes on.
Re-distribution of wealth.

Excellent articles here

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:54 - ID#215219)
Bond Dump
Wow, the 30 year bond off 4 points! Is this the start of a trend to higher rates or just a reaction from bull mkt?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:54 - ID#35571)
Anybody who would like to see what a BEAR market looks like
look at long term treasuries...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 10:58 - ID#35571)
Think of Y2K like a tornado coming through town
Everyone sees it coming, fear drives the buying of storm shelters and wind damage insurance, those guys make money.

The tornado hits and the ill prepared and even the well prepared get hurt.

Then comes reconstruction, VERY bullish for constrution firms, lumber yards, hospitals and doctors, paint suppliers, trash haulers, etc.

True, you gotta be a survivor to benefit, but to those who do....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:00 - ID#35571)
Unwinding, unwinding, unwinding. The other wall of the eye.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:02 - ID#50148)
Sig, chas, Gollum
I haven't been frequenting here as much as I used to. I have held a 'core' position in the metal stocks and traded most of the other metal positions that I took on earlier. For the past several months I've been trading 'other' issues. Some trades were 'long' term in nature, five days or so. Most of the trades were done in 48 hours from entry to exit. They either popped in the right direction or failed to meet expectations. In either event, I have had NO desire to 'hang' around those issues ( stocks ) . The point being, I have no clue as to what the market will do next week, a day or two is about as far as I'm willing to GAMBLE at this point. Maybe the market will leave me in the dust, but if I can make a 1/4 point today I'll take it and run. Never forget, the preservation of capital is key if you exopect to survive in the markets. This is a hard lesson to learn. The danger, as I see it, is that an awful lot of issues have DOUBLED or at least gone up by fifty percent since the 'bottom'. That's an awfully tempting profit to take for a month or so in the markets. You can bet that there are a LOT of itchy trigger fingers out there. Could we put in a new high here? Sure! Is it for real??? Don't know, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Could we be in for a 'token' new high? More criminal things have been known to happen in the past............. But the real question is, "How tall do trees grow?" Do they grow to the sky? Inquiring minds want to know!

Just think of all of those high level corporate types holding on to the company stock options that are below their strike price. What will they do in order to get the stock price up over the strike price? Perhaps the economy is not so robust, but, just what is the job market depending on these days? Stock prices or the selling of the companies products? Again, inquiring minds want to know. For now, day trading will do just fine, thank you. AND MIND YOUR LIMITS AND STOPS ( L&S's ) . :- ) )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:03 - ID#238422)
EJ, reg.platinum... I wanna help you per your request.
Stop now, brother. There may be some dumping
from Mother Russia until the end of the year...

If you still want to buy, buy it, I don't care...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:04 - ID#284255)
The Ripple Effect - snips
The Year 2000 ... What Lies Beyond
by James K. Laird

The scope of the Year 2000 problem is much larger than expected. In fact, as we learn more about the problem, we keep finding new layers of issues ( see Figure 1 ) . The much-maligned COBOL mainframe system may account for the greatest volume of code requiring date-conversions, but given the tools and consulting support, they are the easiest to correct. Client/server systems, meanwhile, are not completely compliant - and much harder to fix. Furthermore, end user software is fraught with problems. Just because Excel and Access are compliant does not mean that the applications using them will function. Date problems appear in a huge variety of non-IT systems and devices including environmental control units, factory printing and packaging machinery, process control equipment, video recorders, security and access control systems, civilian and military avionics, networks and telecommunications equipment, embedded computer chips, billing and collection services and even end products.

To minimize these problems, we must realize we are all dependent on each other; one companys compliance is useless unless other companies remain viable. After all, business is not conducted in a vacuum. For example, credit cards cannot process transactions unless all links between merchants and banks are operating. A compliant assembly line cannot create products without supplies. We all depend on federal, state and local governments for an array of services. Its a good bet that numerous local governments either dont know about the problem or have not mobilized the resources required to alleviate the problem before the deadline.

Another business issue that must be addressed is the organizations legal liability to its customers if it fails to deliver promised services or products. In addition, there is liability of the directors to the shareholders. Finally, there is liability of the suppliers to the organization and any legal issues that arise from their inability to provide service. There will be a significant amount of litigation surrounding the Year 2000 problem, and it will be vital that the organizations legal staff be involved in the problem from day one.

From an accounting perspective, Year 2000 costs will be treated as an expense if no significant new function is included. The inability to capitalize the cost will result in some unique one-time charges to the bottom-line of the organization.

From a cash flow perspective, financial institutions must understand the risk of loss of loans outstanding to organizations that may not survive and the bottom-line impact this could have. Similarly, for many firms account receivables are important to cash flow; if they are unable to collect from firms that can no longer pay them, it will have a ripple effect on their ability to operate.

The biggest challenge of all is to make all the changes in the time frame required. The deadline is immovable. Understanding these issues in advance allows proactive efforts to ensure minimization of loss and a viable liquidity. The more you know, the more prepared you and your firm will be.

Seems the lawyers will make a killing. ( :- ) ) )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:08 - ID#229207)
I followed the link to the Y2K New Year parties page. Even a glance at this thing filled me with anxiety. It makes the day seem so... close!

Was talking to a friend about this yesterday, trying to come up with an investment strategy around Y2K -- shorting stocks in companies in low margin industries that can't afford to remediate, investing in the big consulting firms ( e.g., A.T. Kerney ) that have a chance of scaling up to handle the extra demand, and buying shares in companies that make stuff that is likely to get hit with mania buying, e.g., gold.

To most investors, with teenie attention spans and infinite investment timeframes, 15 months is a long time from now. ( The "global financial meltdown" of a few weeks ago is ancient history. ) So anxiety levels and the attending behavior changes for the majority of the population will not occur until the date looms large. Will anxiety grow gradually as the date approaches or is there pent-up anxienty that will be triggered by a proving event, such as an early Y2K-invoked shutdown of some publically visible network? It's hard to say.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:08 - ID#35571)
The equities market is starting to notice the carnage on Bond Street
As panda says, they've been up for days, even weeks.

Now someone is about to throw a match into the powder keg.

Has Abbey Joseph Cohen made her speech yet?

Won't Puetz step in to save the market?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:10 - ID#35571)
Yes. Where do I buy calls on lawyers and programmers who know how to use more than two digits?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:11 - ID#242265)
Turning Around!
XAU is turning around
NEM moving up
keep going!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:11 - ID#147201)
Panda re your thesis
Hit and run is a damn good idea. Jumping between the shell holes. I think you are right!! You can't go broke taking a profit. With all the rigging going on , no real dependability can be placed on the best plans. Thanx for verification

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:11 - ID#238422)
On the subject of Farfel "problem"...
Why is everybody seems obligated to beat up the guy?
He got his problems, but who doesn't? I got a feeling
that this farfel thingie now transfers from some relatively
practical fight into plain kicking...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:14 - ID#50148)
TICK and TRIN a very useful indicators to watch. They will give you an idea as to the sentiment at the moment.

A casual glance at the daily charts for the S&P or DJ-30 sure looks like a 'blow off' type sentiment to me. Then again, what do I know? Uh oh, I think I hear incoming... Duck and cover.... or is that sell now and buy later?? Then again, it's Friday. Perhaps it is best to leave the party now? We can always decide what to do about it on Monday morning. :- ) )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:15 - ID#229207)
I know when I'm about to make an investment on weak ground so I apppreciate the guidance. If it goes up like a rocket, I'll not blame you, brother. Your information, although imperfect, is still better than mine. Thanks.

By the way, how do you guess platinum behaves when the sh*t hits the fan in the equity and bond markets?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:21 - ID#233379)
oris-on the subject of Farfel and the Arab "problem"
I just want to know what part of the world Farfel was in during the 1980's energy crisis.

John Disney
(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:27 - ID#24135)
the good ole days ..
to all
The rand has firmed to 5.49 against a fairly strong
Remember when it fell to 6.6 under the Soros gun,
and and man named "Cheesehead" predicted it would go
to 10 ??? Those were the days ! Cheerleaders ..
Brass bands !! Capital Letters ..!

to brother Oris ..

agree completely on the F* question ..
this guy could bring peace to the middle
East .. with F* in the picture .. Arabs
would no longer consider Israel to be any
sort of a threat whatsoever.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:27 - ID#31868)
oris, Namaste' gulp...puff and a crunch of the pickel to ya...compassion...yowser!
Brabo...Lead by example my friend...lead by example...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:28 - ID#222231)
Oris, F* problem
My Dear Oris and others,

If others would just ignore any posts by F* and those that think their trashing of F* is cute and right on, there would be no problem. Every time someone encourages those that offend F*, they enable these trashers. The same for those that side with F*.

PS: Watch the rates closely. Once they start moving up and a trend is established, watch the markets begin to tank and gold begin its ascent. I see the market going up for a while towards 10,000 until the rate rises sink in, then buy gold and gold shares with both fists. Our day will come, just hope I can live long enough because I'm aging at a faster rate than normal every day.

Best regards,


(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:28 - ID#35571)
IMVHO platinum will drop like a rock.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:28 - ID#284255)
Gollum - EJ

The Eager Beavers.
By next year, theyll be sipping champagne and trying to decide which stocks to sell short come December 1999.

Just watch the eager beavers.^o-o^

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:30 - ID#31868)
John Disney, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...what Americans know about RSA
would not fill the cavity in the tooth of a Jack Russell terrier...nope...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:30 - ID#81288)
Re: Farfel
I really value this forum ( Thank you, Bart Kitner & Kitco ) and the great insights on gold and mining issues ( Thank you, all ) .

I also value the diversity of perspectives, without which this site would be monotonously boring.

We are collectively responsible for maintaining the QUALITY of the forum so others find it of value. Attacks ( personal, ad hominem, class, race, ethnicity, religion, sexual, or drinking preferences ) are not welcome and do not contribute value. F* has been attacking people, not ideas.

OK. Back to our precious. As I said last week, following the election, the smoke will clear and mirrors will shatter. What you are seeing now is the smoke lifting. Mirrors have yet to start shattering. IMHO, the bloom will appear on the golden rose around mid-week next, November 11-ish.

Cyclist: Where is the XAU support? Does 80 have to hold?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:31 - ID#35571)
Great URL! I loved it!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:31 - ID#229207)
US bond falls, rate cut hopes falter, stocks rise

"NEW YORK, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond tumbled in mid-morning trade on Friday amid futures-related selling as hopes for a November rate cut faltered and stocks gained."

( snip )

"Traders also noted hedge fund selling in bond futures and in the December five-year contract."

Ya think?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:33 - ID#339274)
5.4 %
FWIW Critical junction for the long bonds.Limited liquidity
will evaporate values in the market.Russell 2000 came within
a hairbreath of 400 and the cash bonds were within reaching
distance of 5.4%.Gold is waiting what Grease-pan is going
to do.IMO bonds are oversold here and money will be rushing
back from the market.XAU basing around 79,getting ready for another rally.
We'll see next week

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:34 - ID#284255)
Whhat it's all about???

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:43 - ID#31868)
What a bunch of pure BS...Clintler, Robbin Rubin and that oh so green guy...the
problem is simple...get bankers out of the international system of payments...that is the problem in a should be fixed in value to gold and silver...if you need banking go to a bank...if you want to pay for should be done with a fixed, immovable instrument which is nobody elses promise to pay the debt is settled and done withthe Constitution damn it!!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:46 - ID#210282)
Brazil, Mexico -- It all boils down to how much the people will pay for the mistakes of others
Gollum: Last I heard the Brazilian politicians voted to support the IMF demands for cost-cutting. My superficial impression is that although the Brazilian leaders are going through the motions, substantial action is not evident. The idea is apparently to mollify the IMF by promising more belt tightening years in the future. If the Brazilian politicians attempt a real belt tightening, the Brazilian people would be asked to do more than they would be willing to do, and the commotion would be deafening.

I guess the real question about Brazil is whether the IMF can be 'convinced' that Brazil is 'serious' about their belt- tightening, and the IMF bailout can go forward.

I think we all know the outcome of this, since the same thing was tried with Mexico in 1995, and now Mexico is now 60 billion dollars in debt due to unpaid obligations. I guess the Mexican leaders were unable to get the Mexican people to absorb the losses.

So, I think the scenario will go like this:

Brazil petitions the IMF to give some bailout funds. If the IMF refuses because Brazil's belt-tightening is insufficient, Brazil reminds the IMF of the 'consequences- too big to fail', the IMF relents, and releases some funds with strings attached.

If the funds are not sufficient to cover the short-term interest due, Brazial defaults now. If the IMF funds are sufficient to cover the current crisis, the current problem is diverted for a few months, with no clear resolution of the problem.

Either way, I do not see any real evidence that Brazil's debt problems have been averted, and what really matters is when the investors in Brazil realize they have been suckered.

With China and Mexico problems unresolved, any idea how long before the next big financial crisis hits the markets? A month? Two?

I'd rather be surfing real Tsunami rather than a virtual one, because at least then I would have some idea what's happening, and when.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:52 - ID#227238)
You were on a walk about and just happened to stumble over those baubles?? I understand that's a common occurence in Oz. Yes?

Lurker 777
(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:55 - ID#317247)
MOONEY the Flagman!
Are you the one and only FLAGman. Where did old HEP the Cat go? I remember you two really fighting it out over on Kitco 2. Every time you would pump up Flag the old HEP would slam you into next year. I don't think I ever have seen anyone promote a stock like you did on Flag Resources! Did Flag ever turn around? By the way, did you use to work for FLAG RESOURCES? I know you and your fellow FLAGoholics were losing BIG MOONEY on that dog. Nuff Said!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:56 - ID#35571)
I wonder if any hedge funds were long in treasuries?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:57 - ID#210282)
Gold Rally?
All: I repeat my warning to all -- if gold rallies, we need to ask why -- or we may end up squashed gold bug Tsunami surfers. These are not simple inflationary times, and gold bullion is going to have a few ups and downs before any steady uptrend is clearly evident. Unless -- the US dollar really tanks. But even then -- beware a repeat of the gold equities rally of 1987 -- doubling within a few months, followed by the Octover 87 crash.

Keep ( some of ) your powder dry -- and watch for signs of a breaking wave. Or -- just buy the metal.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 11:58 - ID#33184)
Dollar make major move against all majors out of the blue ...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:01 - ID#238422)
I have no idea...I can imagine when sh*t hits the fan,
it would be messy and stinky...I recall a year a so ago
I posted my understanding that bad conditions in Russia
encourage official and non-officials sales of PGMs from
different Russian seems to be right assumption.
Although, as my brother John discovered, Russia is behind
RSA in platinum production, Russian sporadic shipments may
cause imbalance in the market. I'm comfortable with long
term prospects of platinum ( agree with RJ ) , but very
uncomfortable with palladium - it is extremely overpriced...
I suspect that Russia has a lot of stockpiled palladium,
and considering that cost of its production is very low
in relation to current spot price, I'm surprised that
Russians did not dump all this palladium on the market,
which would probably drive price back to $150...$175.
Platinum is precious metal, Palladium will never be...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:02 - ID#35571)
Now the fit will hit the shan
Lunchtime is about to begin in NY.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:04 - ID#277224)

Presently trading at .80 with a low of .77 up .o3
with a volume of 35,500.
Anyone have any wisdom or postulations they would
care to give?? ( There was a bit of discussion re.this
co. several days ago. )
Also have been trying to find a symbol to access
the gold mining companies index on the TSE,that is
the equivalent of the XAU.Have been informed by broker
that they use the symbol TTSGLS but this does not
work online.

Gold Dancer
(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:06 - ID#430221)
JFT Mexico/Brazil
Your observations seem good to me. So the question is raised why
all the stalling/delays? I would guess that the Rubin/Greenspan team
hope to be out of Washington before the S*** really hits. Rubin has wanted out for a long time. Greenspan's term is up in April. My guess
is both are gone, long gone from the consequences of their policies
by the time most people discover that the party they have enjoyed all
these years has a hangover to deliver.

But then maybe they won't be out in time.

Go Gold. GD

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:07 - ID#35571)
@Cage Rattler
Looks like someone is trading pounds for dollars. Ted Arnold moving back home?

Lurker 777
(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:22 - ID#317247)
Hey, no Mooney
MOOney, I found quotes on Flag:
You were PROMOTING this dog at $.60+ and it is now at 16 cents. WHAT HAPPENED?
Hmmm, does anyone know how to search Kitco 2 for old posts? Not Nuff said!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:24 - ID#284255)
Actually I caught them fly fishing the other day.

There was a bit too much wind and the fly kept on getting caught in this funny looking tree.

The spoils of being a lousy fisherman I guess.^o-o^

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:25 - ID#339274)
Their capitalization is the same as cash in hand.
the company has been exploring their silver/zinc/lead Wolf
property in the Yukon past summer.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:29 - ID#339274)
Bonds /OEX
FWIW Covered my short bond position and bought OEX puts for until
next week Wednesday.Waiting for platinum,has to hold 340 support

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:29 - ID#389387)
? for chart devinators
What do you call the hemispherical chart representation of XAU from 11:00 AM to 12:30 PM today? A pimple? What?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:34 - ID#373403)
Bloomberg is reporting that $38 billion in Treasury bonds
being sold this week is creating a glut. Talk about an overhang problem, with $5.5 trillion in debt, the United States has to roll over $183 billion in debt paper per year or $15.2 billion per month.

It is obvious that with the combination of the Euro and the fact that Asia cannot afford to finance our debt anymore, Americans will be forced to either buck up and purchase our own Treasury paper, causing generally higher interest rates to entice people to save instead of spend ( hurting the economy ) , or the Fed will have to monetize portions of the debt causing inflation ( also raising interest rates and hurting the economy ) .

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:38 - ID#277224)
Thanks for comments on Atna.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:45 - ID#43185)
Let's see, I need puts on Amazon and calls on B&N. Gotta keep that straight

Aragorn III
(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:45 - ID#212323)
WASHINGTON, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence
Summers urged European nations, on the verge of economic and monetary
union, to proceed with needed reforms to boost growth and help
crisis-stricken Asia in prepared remarks for delivery to a Transatlantic Business Dialogue in Charlotte, N.C.

A text of his remarks was issued in Washington.

Summers said "the most pressing question today" for Europe was how to
respond to Asia's crisis and how to work with the United States in
easing its impact. He said the United States "cannot carry the burden alone," and urged that Europe introduce reforms to boost private investment and so contribute to worldwide market stability by sustaining a recovery in European growth.

"It goes without saying that the global economy's adjustment to the
shocks of the Asian crisis will be smoother, the more widely it is
shared," Summers said.
Yeah, a flatline on an EKG if they ( Europe ) participated in U.S.-style financial practices. Sheeeeeeesh!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:52 - ID#43185)
Taking better advantage of the snake

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:54 - ID#284255)
For the farm..

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:55 - ID#43185)
Anyone have a can opener?
The can says "worms" on the side:

(Fri Nov 06 1998 12:59 - ID#43185)
Let's see....the interest on the outstanding bonds is serviced by issuing more bonds, is that right?

Why does the word "Ponzi" come to mind?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:01 - ID#33184)
Imf'S Camdessus Sees Calm Returning To Global Markets But Crisis Not Over Yet

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:05 - ID#43185)
Hanging on
Metals still just hanging there, but looking softer.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:05 - ID#33184)
NYSE Sets Trading Curbs At 12:44

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:06 - ID#348257)
Date: Fri Nov 06 1998 08:46
EJ ( Gollum ) ID#45173:
Surprises come from a lack of understanding, either because the information needed
to predict is hidden, intentionally or not, or the needed information describes a
situation that is too complex to comprehend or the information is coming at you too
fast for you to process and react to rationally.

The challenge of risk analysis is that the thing that you are most worried will happen,
the event you are hedged against, doesn't happen. Instead, a completely unforeseen
event occurs, usually when you most expect no events at all.

Date: Fri Nov 06 1998 08:52
Gollum ( @EJ ) ID#35571:
Quantuum mechanics suggests that sometimes there is NO information to predict the
surprise. What happens happens.

My astrological call on XSYS is purely that- ASTROLOGICAL. I am happy, however, that it has brought this dialogue between 2 of the learned members of the Kitco Klan. And EJ - I am gratified by your confidence in buying shares.What each has to say is correct. However, I am working on another level, or "plane" so to speak, one with its own parameters. This is simply a fact. The great value of astrology, as I see it, in my humble way, is that it can very often highlight time windows of unusual activity in a stock, institution, person's life, or, under certain circumstances and with certain extended correlations, a commodity. If this does not square with anyone's conception of Quantum Mechanics, I can't help it. If this be the case, and I have attemped many times to demonstrate it here at Kitco, ( this call on XSYS just another illustration, experiment if you wish, of the operation of corporate astrology ) then I ask "Wouldn't it be a very valuable thing to know in advance, often MANY YEARS in advance, when such windows of likely unusual activity will emerge?" I have found this to be the case. Many predictions I have made concerning natural disasters and civil disorders would have saved lives had people been more vigilant and taken the warnings seriously. This leaves me with a heavy heart, but does not deter me from developing my approach to the markets as an astrologer ( who also has a foundation in conventional technical and fundamental analysis ) . So when you guys say things about XSYS, or any company I home in on astrologically, that they are in a downtrend, they had better make some sales, they better develop their product quickly, etc, you are of course correct. But I am not looking at those "givens" that everyone else looks at. Otherwise there is no surprise, no LEVERAGE. I am an AMBUSHER.

I do not see what I am doing as "investment" however, whatever that means. I see it as the most sublime form of speculation. I can spot the action before even the INSIDERS know it is coming - months, YEARS, DECADES ahead. Naturally, being an impatient Aries, weeks and months will do nicely.
There are numerous scientific minds here at Kitco. I am awed by all of them. I ask only to be considered in such company as, in my own way, if not a scientist, then an artist in the use of a science, in order to improve the potentials in speculation. And I share freely what I find, as many here know, and some have profited by. Anyhow, the bottom line is that XSYS will explode in the next 3 months or it won't. And I am not always right either. That's why I use the term "art" for astrology, for the SAME astrological combinations will never repeat EXACTLY ever again.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:06 - ID#43185)
NEM under 23 again

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:07 - ID#229207)
Gollum: hedge funds long on bonds...
US Treasuries tumble at midday, easing hopes wane

"There was talk of some forced liquidations, possibly by a hedge fund, in off-the-run five-year notes. Spreads between off-the-run and on-the-run five-years widened, analysts said."

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:12 - ID#350179)
How to approximate the current intraday ( 15 min delay ) NAV:

It's at about 1.9964 ( 2.00 ) lagging the XAU.

Sheller, stellar as usual!
Just another bright spot in Kitconstellation.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:12 - ID#43185)
@Mike Sheller
I am a great beleiver in what Carl Jung had to say about sychronicity and in this regard the "plane" of astrology is not so much different.

Be that as it may, there are surprises that acrue because of lack of analysis and surprises that occur becuase of misinformation.

Some of these surprises would not have been surprises is a proper astrological analysis would have been made.

And then there are surprises that just happen.

Even to astrologers.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:14 - ID#350179)
Oh yeah (oops)
Divide the sum total of all those by 100.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:14 - ID#25490)
Rainbow Stew anyone? Howabout you, Stu?
Program trading "is a very profitable part" of business for large Wall
Street firms, said Ned Collins, head of trading at Daiwa Securities. "It
allows them to take advantage of virtually riskless situations."

Snipped from Gollum's 12:52

Well, I suppose that's OK, you know, " to take advantage of virtually riskless situations". I mean if you have a "virtually riskless situation" it should be taken advantage of.

Glad there's nothing to worry about. Yup. I'm glad that Wall St has finally found a "virtually riskless situation." Couldn't have happened to a nicer street. What took them so long?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:19 - ID#284255)

Nearly half the respondents ( 44 percent ) reported having already experienced a Year 2000-related failure, up from 40 percent in July. Most failures caused processing disruptions or financial miscalculations. Ninety percent of respondents have missed deadlines in addressing the Year 2000 challenge, up from 78 percent in April.
Good graph at the bottom of the page.
Puts the Gov't in perspective.

Anyone know where I can get a list of US power utilities from?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:23 - ID#194311)
aurator...the arrogance of these people.
This is what I find the most disconcerting.

snip..."Orders that are entered when the curbs are in effect must
work to stabilize the market and are required to be
entered as a "buy minus" or a "sell plus." A "buy minus"
means a buy order on a stock cannot be set higher than
the most recent sale as long as that sale has a "minus"
tick on it. A "sell plus" affects sell orders."

Now I wonder what on earth that last sentence means in reality. The market will not crash, essentially they won't let a trade go on lower than the last one in a crashing market.....damn ponzi scheme if you ask me.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:24 - ID#25490)
language is so confusing
sharefin & Dad
all kiwis
I told a friend that some bstards stole my care and drove in down a bank in Tuakau. She asked "How's the cow?"

Lurker 777
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:25 - ID#317247)
Hey Mooney, CAT got your tongue? (HEPcat) hahaha

Mr. NO Mooney: How could you relentlessly PROMOTE Flag Resources so hard on Kitco 2 and talk so many new bee's out of their MONEY. Most posters on Kitco 2 were only trying to learn and many never had invested in gold stocks before. Why on Kitco 2 and not Kitco 1? Did you believe that Kitco 1 posters are more informed and less EASY prey? What is your current outlook on Flag? Have you ever denounced Flag for the dog it is?
You have no right to utter the words Mozel. How dare you attack Mozel when you have hurt so many. What gives you the right to trash others when so much garbage has spewed from your deceitful lips? More to come. YES!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:26 - ID#25295)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:27 - ID#194311)
Hmmm Cage Rattler....I see you got a reference
from Mr Greenspan in his first paragraph yesterday.

I thought it was pretty negative the way he slammed derivative financial instruments....I guess the wise ones that feed the media know better.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:28 - ID#194311)
Now there's a place.

I have a bro who lives there, actually.

Good place to wait out y2k ructions.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:28 - ID#33184)
Golden Goodwin has the touch of a genius

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:30 - ID#350179)
What in the world was the kau doing in the bank?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:33 - ID#222107)
Sharefin - Electric Utilities
The major consortium of electric utilities is the Electric Power Research Council.

Their web site: This site includes a sanitized summary of Y2K issues, and should have a list of members.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:34 - ID#325184)
I noticed your entry on FGLDX. I have been investing in this fund for a long time and it is seems to consistently lag similar funds. I am interested in your thoughts on this.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:37 - ID#25490)
Yup. Sure gets confusing with all these trading rules changing, allowing increased volatility. The only game to be in is, of course, market making, and, if you're really good at it, you can make the rules too.

I'd be grateful for an Ingrish translation of those changes to trading rules from anyone who can...

Loose lip's sink ships. I do not know why you have decided to go after Mooney* for, what in hindsight, seems a bad call. Before my time, but in the old days, the golden olden days, Kitco #2 was the correct place to talk Gold Stocks and coins.
I thought we could all make up our own minds about buying and selling.
Caveat Emptor? Carpe Cravatte? Carpe Carp?

You should flag it, brother. I'm just carpingonaur@tor

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:39 - ID#43185)
Doesn't look like they're hanging on any longer....
The depths of November?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:41 - ID#43185)
Now if Mr. Greenspan works the words "kiwi" or "gollum" into one of his next talks I am going to start getting a little suspicious.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:44 - ID#430221)
The information about Nick Goodwin is most interesting
He seems to know what he's talking about. Anyone know how to access any new prediction he might make? Are there any websites that might feature him regularly?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:46 - ID#25490)
it'll freisian hell first.
As "capital" is derived from 'capita', head; of cattle: the kau was probably in the bank waiting for the cows to come home.

Happy virtual riskless trading to everyone

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:47 - ID#33184)
He is always interviewed by Alec Hogg and transcripts of those interviews are found at

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:49 - ID#194311)
Gollum...I'll die with laughter if greenspan
can work a kiwi into his plans!

Perhaps, a derivative on the index price of kiwifruit as an example for the simple layman on how horribly complicated this could all get.

Oh for a simple

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:52 - ID#284255)
You're up early this fine morning.
The sun must be just shooting it's golden rays heavenwards.
Must be time for my bed.

What did they TUTU-aurators-KAKA....^o-o^

Thanks mate
All the 10Q's are just coming out.
Peco Energy et al.
Not looking good as yet.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:53 - ID#194311)
Spare a dime mister?...IMF run out of money for Rwanda.
Rwanda accuses lenders of reneging on commitments

KIGALI, Nov 5 ( AFP ) - Rwandan Economic and Finance Minister
Donald Kaberuka on Thursday accused international lenders of failing
to meet their commitments to Rwanda.
"We have been very disappointed to see that while we have
fulfilled our side of the contract with the IMF ( International
Monetary Fund ) , promised disbursements ... have not arrived in
Rwanda," Kaberuka said.
"Out of 56 million US dollars promised to us, we have received
only 30 million. That shows that the commitment of the lenders has
not been respected," said Kaberuka, who is to present his 1999
budget to parliament on Tuesday.
"The next budget will be difficult, but we must take account of
and respect these constraints," he said.
Kaberuka added that with "the 30 percent drop in the price of
coffee in 1998, this shortfall in disbursements has been a
considerable constraint on the country's economy," and that his
budget would "reflect these constraints."
The Rwandan minister also stressed that the government had
"stabilized the economy" and met all targets set by the IMF and the
World Bank.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:54 - ID#194311)
Jap banks wishful thinking.
Japan's finance agency finds banks too optimistic on bad loans: report

TOKYO, Nov 6 ( AFP ) - Japan's financial supervisory agency has
found some top banks wrongly categorised bad loans as healthy assets
and ordered them to re-assess outstanding loans, a report said
After inspecting the country's top 18 banks the agency told them
they used self-assessment standards which were less stringent than
were needed, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun business daily said.
The supervisory body was also critical of how banks categorised
loans to the same borrower, with some setting aside lower provisions
for high-risk loans than other banks, it said.
The agency officials could not be reached for comment.
Japanese banks sort their loans in four categories, ranging from
healthy to irrecoverable.
There are differences in how banks treat risky loans which
"require some caution in recovery."
The agency will make its own assessment on bank loans in
December, the daily said. The financial supervisory agency conducted
its bank inspections between July and this month in collaboration
with the Bank of Japan.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 13:55 - ID#43185)
Bonds easing back a bit
The metals had been holding about even DESPITE the sell off in the bond market which would ordinarily be bullish for them.

Then when the selloff began to fade, gold and silver faded even faster.

This is not good.

Let's see, what was APH saying? 4.40 for silver? What about gold?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:00 - ID#229207)
Mike Sheller
My Dad was a physicist. So I'm stuck with this profound skepticism about predictive methods that cannot be proven empirically. I'm just as skeptical of stock pickers who use fundimentals analysis, as study after study proves that the stock picker's performance drifts toward the mean over time, and that hanging on to a bunch of stocks while doing nothing will deliver the same result but without the opportunity costs and transation costs of trading.

This applies less with commodities trading, since predictive tools, such as charts, are used by such a large proportion of commodities traders that the chartist's predictions become statistally meaningful to the extent that there is general agreement among chartists that charts they are all looking at are meaningful and that they base decisions on them in a correlative way.

The same might be said of astrology. If many investors believed in the meaning of astrological predictions and used the same astrological information to make investment decisions, then astrology would become statistically meaningful as a predictor of markets.

You may disagree, but my opinion is that markets, when viewed as a system, are chaotic. Not astrology, nor fundimentals analysis, nor charts will make them otherwise.

Y2K will throw a wrench in the portfolio game, tho. Holding few hundred stocks will not diversify risk if a significant portion of the companies one owns stock in will cease to be profitable or cease to operate at all after Dec. 1, 1999.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:02 - ID#266105)

Goldilocks-- Goodwin interviews and market calls at the link
Cage Rattler posted, usually once or twice a month, usually
on Fridays, none today. He's been on a lucky streak stretching
back into late last year, thankyouverymuch. Stocking up on
hgmcy this week again.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:07 - ID#284255)
Every story has a moral
Some years ago, about 1900, an old trapper from North Dakota hitched up
some horses to his Studebaker wagon, packed a few possessions --
especially his traps -- and drove south.

Several weeks later he stopped in a small town just north of the
Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia.

It was a Saturday morning -- a lazy day -- when he walked into the
general store. Sitting around the pot-bellied stove were seven or eight
of the town's local citizens.

The traveler spoke. "Gentlemen, could you direct me to the Okefenokee

Some of the oldtimers looked at him like he was crazy. "You must be a
stranger in these parts," they said.

"I am. I'm from North Dakota," said the stranger.

"In the Okefenokee Swamp are thousands of wild hogs." one old man
"A man who goes into the swamp by himself asks to die!" He lifted up his
leg. "I lost half my leg here, to the pigs of the swamp."

Another old fellow said, "Look at the cuts on me; look at my arm bit off!
Those pigs have been free since the Revolution, eating snakes and rooting
out roots and fending for themselves for over a hundred years. They're
wild and they're dangerous. You can't trap them. No man dare go into the
swamp by himself." Every man nodded his head in agreement.

The old trapper said, "Thank you so much for the warning. Now could you
direct me to the swamp?"

They said, "Well, yeah, it's due south -- straight down the road." But
they begged the stranger not to go, because they knew he'd meet a
terrible fate.

He said, "Sell me ten sacks of corn, and help me load it in the wagon."
And they did. Then the old trapper bid them farewell and drove on down
the road. The townsfolk thought they'd never see him again.

Two weeks later the man came back. He pulled up to the general store, got
down off the wagon, walked in and bought ten more sacks of corn. After
loading it up he went back down the road toward the swamp.

Two weeks later he returned and again bought ten sacks of corn. This went
on for a month. And then two months, and three. Every week or two the old
trapper would come into town on a Saturday morning, load up ten sacks of
corn, and drive off south into the swamp.

The stranger soon became a legend in the little village and the subject
of much speculation. People wondered what kind of devil had possessed
this man, that he could go into the Okefenokee by himself and not be
consumed by the wild and free hogs.

One morning the man came into town as usual. Everyone thought he wanted
corn. He got off the wagon and went into the store where the usual group
of men were gathered around the stove. He took off his gloves.
"Gentlemen," he said, "I need to hire about ten or fifteen wagons. I need
twenty or thirty men. I have six thousand hogs out in the swamp, penned
up, and they're all hungry. I've got to get them to market right away."

"You've WHAT in the swamp?" asked the storekeeper, incredulously.

"I have six thousand hogs penned up. They haven't eaten for two or three
days, and they'll starve if I don't get back there to feed and take care
of them."

One of the oldtimers said, "You mean you've captured the wild hogs of the

"That's right."

"How did you do that? What did you do?" the men urged, breathlessly.

One of them exclaimed, "But I lost my arm!"
"I lost my brother!" cried another.
"I lost my leg to those wild boars!" chimed a third.

The trapper said, "Well, the first week I went in there they were wild
all right. They hid in the undergrowth and wouldn't come out. I dared not
get off the wagon. So I spread corn along behind the wagon. Every day I'd
spread a sack of corn. The old pigs would have nothing to do with it."

"But the younger pigs decided that it was easier to eat free corn than it
was to root out roots and catch snakes. So the very young began to eat
the corn first. I did this every day. Pretty soon, even the old pigs
decided that it was easier to eat free corn. After all, they were all
free; they were not penned up. They could run off in any direction they
wanted at any time."

"The next thing was to get them used to eating in the same place all the
time. So I selected a clearing, and I started putting the corn in the
clearing. At first they wouldn't come to the clearing. It was too far. It
was too open. It was a nuisance to them."

"But the very young decided that it was easier to take the corn in the
clearing than it was to root out roots and catch their own snakes. And
not long thereafter, the older pigs also decided that it was easier to
come to the clearing every day."

"And so the pigs learned to come to the clearing every day to get their
free corn. They could still subsidize their diet with roots and snakes
and whatever else they wanted. After all, they were all free. They could
run in any direction at any time. There were no bounds upon them."

"The next step was to get them used to fence posts. So I put fence posts
all the way around the clearing. I put them in the underbrush so that
they wouldn't get suspicious or upset. After all, they were just sticks
sticking up out of the ground, like the trees and the brush. The corn was
there every day. It was easy to walk in between the posts, get the corn,
and walk back out."

"This went on for a week or two. Shortly they became very used to walking
into the clearing, getting the free corn, and walking back out through
the fence posts."
"The next step was to put one rail down at the bottom. I also left a few
openings, so that the older, fatter pigs could walk through the openings
and the younger pigs could easily jump over just one rail. After all, it
was no real threat to their freedom or independence. They could always
jump over the rail and flee in any direction at any time."

"Now I decided that I wouldn't feed them every day. I began to feed them
every other day. On the days I didn't feed them the pigs still gathered
in the clearing. They squealed, and they grunted, and they begged and
pleaded with me to feed them. But I only fed them every other day. And I
put a second rail around the posts."

"Now the pigs became more and more desperate for food. Because now they
were no longer used to going out and digging their own roots and finding
their own food. They now needed me. They needed my corn every other day.
So I trained them that I would feed them every day if they came in
through a gate. And I put up a third rail around the fence. But it was
still no great threat to their freedom, because there were several gates
and they could run in and out at will."

"Finally I put up the fourth rail. Then I closed all the gates but one,
and I fed them very, very well. Yesterday I closed the last gate. And
today I need you to help me take these pigs to market."

-- end of story --

The price of free corn

The allegory of the pigs has a serious moral lesson. This story is about
federal money being used to bait, trap and enslave a once free and
independent people.
Federal welfare, in its myriad forms, has reduced not only individuals
to a state of dependency. State and local governments are also on the
fast track to elimination, due to their functions being subverted by the
command and control structures of federal "revenue sharing" programs.

Please copy this flyer and send it to all your state and local elected
leaders and other concerned citizens. Tell them: "Just say NO to federal

The bacon you save may be your own.

Sorry mate - must be tired.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:09 - ID#31868)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
check your email...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:09 - ID#194311)
International Body to Regulate Hedge Fund activites

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:18 - ID#266105)

Astrology has never been held in much esteem by the scientific
community for failing to stand up to the rigors of its methodology
...universality, repeatability, etc. Here's a link to a reasoned
debunking of astrology.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:25 - ID#194311)
Bond demand drying up...liquidity problem...naaahhh.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:29 - ID#210282)
Free corn
sharefin: Liked your story. Problem is, the US government began with the American Indians, and learned that they became dependent to the government 'free handouts'. Then came the civil war, emancipation, several World Wars, and millions more on handouts of one kind or another -- veterans and minorities. Then health care -- a free ticket now for over 40 years -- but now so expensive in the US that many fear losing their jobs and losing medical coverage. 'Social security', where only a fraction of the money put in actually comes out -- if you are on the wrong side of the baby boom bubble. And expanding retirement benefits -- generous for all federal workers who retire after 20 years, regardless of age. Now we have FEMA, and many more handouts for disasters -- but the definition of disaster seems to be getting looser and looser, with the size of our government getting bigger and bigger.

We, the human equivalent of the hogs -- perhaps alot smarter -- but just as gullible. Not just Americans, but the world over.

Unfortunately -- all of this will not end voluntarily. And it will happen again -- until we as humans are far less gullible.

Lurker 777
(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:29 - ID#317247)
Aurator and all: Its more than a bad call.
Mr. No Mooney has the nerve to rebuke mozel and give examples of his nonconforming posts and instantly becomes the great all knowing Kitcocop. It is not right! I do not appreciate his ( higher than thou ) attitude displayed here when he has relentlessly PROMOTED bad stocks to his cyber FRIENDS. Here is an example of his very FIRST post on SI Flag Resources ( FGR.A A ) thread. Would you characterize this post as a bad call or PROMOTING a bad stock?

From: Stephen Mooney Monday, Oct 7 1996 4:17AM ET Reply # of 878

Moreno - What I find amazing is that yourself and John Fairchild have taken an'armchair interest' in this stock and have watched it go up for two weeks now without taking even a small position in the stock ( FLAG ) . On Friday it closed up $.27. That was also up $.41 from the previous Friday. Drilling is about to commence. When do you stop analysing and take a small stake? Or do you just watch it go up and a few months from
now tell everyone, Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda! If you would like a small review of the facts as this interested participant ( I now own 8,000 shares-big deal ) sees them , check out my comments on Sunday night on the Kitco stock discussion group. Good trading!

Gold Dancer
(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:33 - ID#430221)
Hedge Funds
Hedged Funds should not be regulated by an international organization.
How silly, and what a lie!!

Hedge Funds should be allowed to go broke. With no bailout of
anykind. Let them and the markets suffer.

Or just pass a law on the amount of leverage they can use.

But "regulation"? What do them mean by "regulation"? I don't think
they mean that at all. I think they mean: "let us all try and control
the markets more on a coordinated basis."

This is what I think has happened . The hedge funds were allowed to
operate on a highly leveraged basis beause of the trades they were
encouraged to do: The Yen carry and the Gold carry. Now that this is
at the end of the game the Hedge funds suddenly find themselves
conveniently taken over by the financial power structure. And noone
is the wiser about the motives. It is being set up as the biggest
scam and fleese job ever pulled on the peoples of a Nation.

America, beware. You are being had.

IMHO Thanks, GD

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:33 - ID#389387)
To complete the allegory the pigs would have to grow their own corn for the months of January through May. Then the pigs would have to give the corn to the Dakotoite on April 15.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:34 - ID#33184)
Quote of the Day
``There is nothing to make people more cautious,'' said Dick Stein, chief technical analyst at Noble International Investments. ``The market has gone from complete despair a month ago to absolute exuberance at this point.''

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:37 - ID#230216)
I've got some clamolas on the great MikeS.....
ExxCCuuuuuuuuuse me while I jump on someones shoulders trying to tug ones cape..........what's my upside..............stealing candy from a swaddled babe..........go xsys!! buy low and sell high


go mike go... ( ! )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:37 - ID#194311)
Brtish government...paralysis of the country possible in Y2K
Beckett admits possible snags

THE GOVERNMENT admitted yesterday
that parts of the country could be paralysed
by the millennium bug.

Margaret Beckett, the minister in charge of
combating the threat to computer systems
that cannot cope with the change to 2000,
said she could not guarantee that government
efforts to avoid a crisis would succeed.

"There may not be time to think of and to fix
absolutely everything that could be affected
by the bug," Mrs Beckett said.

It was therefore vital to prioritise action and
to make "contingency plans to deal with
unforeseen problems", she said. She insisted
that the Government was taking the problem
"very seriously" and said that it was on target
to avoid "material disruption of major public

Cage Rattler
(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:37 - ID#33184)
Comments on this scenario, please ...
$ vs. Stocks --- on Aug 27, $DEM low was 1.7923. It then fell to a low of 1.5873 on Oct 8 ( 11.4 % decline ) . On Aug 26 the low in the S&P cash was 1075.91. It then fell to a low of 923.32 on Oct 8. The S&P has since rallied to 1138 ( current level ) which is a rise of 23.3%. $DEM has only rallied to 1.6730. A rise of only 5.4%. Is it safe to assume that the lack of confirmation in the USD will result in another major decline in stocks ?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:37 - ID#43185)
Zen and physics
What is known by physics is a finite body of thought. The REAL is much larger in scope and magnitude.

Physics learns more as it goes along, but will never be more than a finite body of thought.

" ... And therefore as a stranger give it welcome.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
than are dreamt in your philosophy."
[Hamlet - Act 1; Scene 5 ( Wm. Shakespeare ) ]

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:40 - ID#194311)
This published in The Times...should get a few people awake.
Where the bug will bite

THE NHS has been warned that up to 1,500
patients could die as the result of equipment
failures if computers are not debugged in
time. The NHS Confederation said yesterday
that it was on target for ensuring year 2000

PENSION computers that take the
two-digit 00 date to mean 1900 could believe
that their clients had not been born and were
therefore ineligible for pensions.

SECURITY systems, which are mostly
date-sensitive, may decide either to let
anybody in or no one at all. Some experts
believe that prison security could be
compromised by gates opening and alarms

HOME computers usually have at least five
internal clocks, any one of which might cause
a crash.

PLANES are thought largely to be safe from
the bug, as they can be flown manually and
do not normally rely on non-compliant chips,
but passengers could still be at risk if air
traffic control computers fail. Old train
signalling equipment is likely to break down
if not altered, and traffic lights may also fail.

POWER stations usually have hundreds of
chip-based appliances. An American nuclear
power station found fuel rods in the core
could change depth with potentially
catastrophic consequences because of a failed
air conditioner.

TELEPHONE networks are heavy users of
embedded microprocessors, which are hard to
debug successfully. Many are not 2000

MILITARY experts are concerned that
weapons - including Russia's nuclear arsenal
- could malfunction, possibly causing
accidental missile launch.

COMPANY computer networks could be a
major casualty. The Government plans to
train 20,000 small firms to deal with the bug
by March, but only 300 have completed
courses and 1,000 more have booked in.

BANK accounts could be wiped out. Some
equipment is already refusing to recognise
bank and credit cards with a year 2000 expiry

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:46 - ID#30345)
Y2k and the FDA
Not sure if you saw this.


Pharmaceutical firms' Year 2000 efforts should be available

for FDA review, CDER Director Woodcock states; FDA is not

requesting formal Y2K submissions at this time.

October 21, 1998 - Daily Ink

HEALTH-NEWS-DAILY, October 21, 1998, Page 3


REVIEW, Center for Drug Evaluation & Research Director Janet Woodcock

states in an Oct. 14 letter to

industry. While FDA is not asking firms to make formal submissions

regarding Y2K efforts at this time,

"the information should be available for FDA review," Woodcock says.

The pharmaceutical industry is expected "to address the problem as a

high priority, to thoroughly assess

and test their computer systems and develop appropriate contingency

plans, and to complete this task

before January 1 of 2000," the FDA letter states. Y2K computer problems

could cause a variety of

problems for pharmaceutical manufacturing and development, the letter

notes. "Of special concern, are

manufacturing processes, which if disrupted by Y2K could result in

severe shortages of needed

pharmaceuticals," Woodcock states.

"For example, in the context of good manufacturing practice, erroneous

date calculations may result in

incorrect expiration dates, equipment maintenance/calibration

schedules, and batch performance trend

analyses," the letter explains. Some computer operated or monitored

manufacturing processes may also

"slip out of control."

Nonclinical and clinical studies also may be affected by the Y2K

problem, which "in the worse case

scenario" would "generate flawed data." The Y2K problem could also

"disrupt tracking of 15-day

expedited reports and cause erroneous trend analysis," the letter adds.

Electronic record time stamps must

"express the year in an accurate and unambiguous manner," as required

under FDA's electronic records

and electronic signatures rule.

Woodcock's letter also emphasizes the importance of supplier Y2K

compliance, noting that "a disruption

in the flow of components, packaging materials and equipment, for

example, could halt or slow

pharmaceutical production, even if a dosage form manufacturer itself

has Y2K well under control." FDA

therefore urged manufacturers "to work with their suppliers to ensure

there will be a minimum of


Stock up.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 14:54 - ID#25490)
vingt et un
Lurker 777
From that 2 year old clip I'd say Mooney declared his interest, put his neck on the line and told the world. I have no way of knowing the veracity of the statements, and, neither does anyone but he.

I still don't see your beef ( we are talking cows, right? ) with Mooney. We do have free will, yar? We can still do our own research, what I understand merkans call due diligence.
Frankly, I think anyone is a meat pattie short of a hamburger who'd buy or sell anything after what they read here.


Regulate the derivatives market? Not possible until the NWO. IMHO.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:04 - ID#229207)
Cage Rattler
Fed sees slowdown, hopes for soft landing-Gramlich

CHESTER, P.A., Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich said on Friday the U.S. economy appeared to be slowing but that the central bank was doing all it can to ensure a soft landing rather than a crash.

``We would like to see an ideal soft landing and will do what we can to try to bring it about. There does seem to be a slowdown, a soft landing is still a possibility,'' he told reporters after giving a speech on community finance.

Gramlich said the Fed was concerned about the U.S. labor market, which according to government data released on Thursday added far fewer new jobs in October than most economists had expected.

``We're concerned about it,'' he said. "It's reflecting the fact that the manufacturing sector is bearing the brunt of the foreign crisis.

Gramlich declined to comment directly on the recent run-up in U.S. equity prices, but said the Fed was watching the market ``carefully''.
Is the reason the equities markets are so exhuberant perhaps due to the expectation created by the Fed that if the market looks like it will go down, the Fed will pump it back up? Talk about a moral hazard.


Lurker 777
(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:08 - ID#317247)
I suspect I will get no response from Mr. NO Mooney and will stop all posts directed towards the Flagman. His condemning arrogance just rubbed me the wrong way. Nuff Said. yes!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:13 - ID#242325)
DJI futures now down a bit even as DJI is up 40 points. Futures led on the way up and it looks like they are signalling an imminent correction.

The failure of the SA golds to particiapte in the recent rally shows that this is not the start of the long awaited breakout. Looks like RJ will be right about a final correction before blast off.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:15 - ID#229207)
All that is known, not all that is knowable.

That to me is the essential difference between science and religion. Religion seeks to describe causes and effects based on static beliefs ( faith ) while science is a process of evolving beliefs based on a changing body of evidence and interpretations of evidence as the truth is approached but never reached ( nonfaith ) .

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:20 - ID#389387)
Sheep win!
The median value in Bart's poll won with 40% of the poll entries. The closing price of gold was $294. Way to go herd.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:30 - ID#423380)
@AURATOR---Gets my vote for the most sensible statement I've ever read here!
Aurator--"Frankly, I think anyone is a meat pattie short of a hamburger who'd buy or sell anything after what they read here".

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:33 - ID#350179)
The Tau of the XAU Cow
re: FGLDX lagging - I'm trying to figure out that one myself. I've been led to look at their underlying composition and am testing to see if it is indeed the portfolio mix in and of itself. So far the numbers seem to fit with a pretty tight correlation - maybe that's part of Mr. Leonard's philosophy for the portfolio? Large momentum plays?
Sorry I couldn't help out more. ( Still ( un ) learning, though I've tracked this one since 85 )

uh oh, XAU at 79...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:45 - ID#288186)

11/06/98--FWN--As of Oct 27,1998
Non Commercial 21,174 -7,860 13,968 +725 9.6
spreading 20,406 -344 20,406 -344 11.0
Commercial 106,270 +11,682 123,022 -482 62.1
Tot lrg trader 147,850 +3,478 157,396 -101 82.6
Small traders 36,934 -3,536 27,388 +43 17.4
Total OI 184,784 -58
Looks like Commercials added 11.5k to the long side. That, according
to Steve Kaplan, is bullish! I'll be checking his comments tonight
for additional info. He usually posts around 5:00PM ET with his

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:48 - ID#288186)
11/06/98--FWN--As of Oct 27,1998
Non Commercial 28,808 +19 11,440 +467 26.4
spreading 4,157 +33 4,157 +33 5.5
Commercial 12,840 +113 47,228 +476 39.5
Tot lrg trader 45,805 +165 62,825 +976 71.3
Small traders 30,368 +1,161 13,348 +350 28.7
Total OI 76,173 +1,326
Looks like there were increases all around on both the long and
short side...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:48 - ID#280339)
Bear Bonds
Treasury auctions have a very predictable pattern. Soloman and Goldman etc. sell lots of bond futures as a hedge against their exposure to the newly auctioned bonds. There is always the fear that the auction won't go well so the public participates on the short side. Then the street covers their shorts. The public scrambles to cover. Then the Rubin network calmly unload the new bonds at a nice profit.

The horrible reaction after the auction is supremely bearish for bonds. This market is going down big time.

Buy gold! Where else you going to put your money!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:50 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 6

Gold 836,648 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 74,500,644 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 70,015 - 44 short tons

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:54 - ID#288186)
11/06/98--FWN--As of Oct 27,1998
Non Commercial 3,066 +136 7,243 -268 33.0
spreading 0 +0 0 +0 0.0
Commercial 8,669 +535 6,344 +989 48.0
Tot lrg trader 11,735 +671 13,587 +721 80.9
Small traders 3,913 +266 2,061 +216 19.1
Total OI 15,648 +937
Looks like the Commercials added 8,669 to the long side. Another
bullish reading per S. Kaplan...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:55 - ID#344326)
For those holding Greeenstone Resources....a very positive post on the yahoo message boards..$5a0$>$5a0$

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:56 - ID#225236)
sharefin hog/corn story - The missing aspect
Your story misses one important aspect.

1. After most of the hogs are fenced up, the PNN ( Pig News Network ) runs a story on the wild pigs that still run free.
2. How come they are still there, murdering the snakes, and polluting the forest?! Why aren't they CIVILIZED, like US the SOCIETY and EARTH concious pigs?! Why do they EDUCATE their youngs themselves rather than send them here, where unique, SPECIAL characteristics ( like mental CHALLENGES ) are honored and not fought!
3. Something HAS to be done with those EXTREMISTS!!!
4. The hunt party is organized to hunt down the MILITIA pigs.
5. The MILITIA pigs decide to REASON with the COMMUNE pigs, rather than take advantage of their superior strength and run the COMMUNE pigs through a meat grinder.
6. The reasoning does not go too well. See, you have to subscribe to the unique school of thought to be able to reason ( or even talk to ) the COMMUNE pigs.
7. It is the MILITIA pigs that end up in a meat grinder.

What is a moral to THIS story?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:59 - ID#288186)
11/06/98--FWN--As of Nov 03,1998
Non Commercial 9,917 -11,257 27,612 +13,644 10.4
spreading 21,212 +806 21,212 +806 11.8
Commercial 113,225 +6,955 100,392 -22,630 59.2
Tot lrg trader 144,354 -3,496 149,216 -8,180 81.3
Small traders 36,061 -873 31,199 +3,811 18.7
Total OI 180,415 -4,369
I didn't notice, but FWN ( Future World News ) had 1st posted COT
numbers from Oct. 27th timeframe...They then posted the above!
Commercials added 7k to the long side AND subtracted 22.5k from
the short side. That seems very BULLISH to ME!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 15:59 - ID#344326)
Well that didn't's a reprint ...the caplock was made by the poster, not me

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:06 - ID#288186)
11/06/98--FWN--As of Nov 03,1998
Non Commercial 28,055 -753 9,397 -2,043 25.2
spreading 4,667 +510 4,667 +510 6.3
Commercial 12,371 -469 46,302 -926 39.4
Tot lrg trader 45,093 -712 60,366 -2,459 70.8
Small traders 29,336 -1,032 14,063 +715 29.2
Total OI 74,429 -1,744
Looks like a mixed-bag here. Be sure to check Kaplan's site for
comments and details...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:09 - ID#252150)
American democrazy in action. Clintler gets caught with a bimbo in the oval
office & Gingrinch gets fired. Ya gotta love it.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:11 - ID#333126)
US citizens keep on borrowing more

( ahem ) oh my darlin paradigm...

Voyeur Professor
(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:11 - ID#231112)
Toledo & MM: re FGLDX

I have followed Invesco Gold for some time now, at one time owning over 20,000 shares. If you research its performance in the last gold bull, you will discover it proved one of the hotter gold funds. In February of 1996, it reached over $9, an increase from $3.50 the year before. So, it is a fund with high volitility, positioned nicely to move rapidly if gold rallies. It also has a high redemption ratio, but has a better track record than Midas Fund with is recommended by Stephen Leeb at "Personal Finance." Invesco also has low management fees and is a no-load fund front and back.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:15 - ID#432395)
Don know much bout dem pig storys an da morals??
But I knows dat wen dem 5000000 pigs git ta markit, da price of bacon
she gonna drop!!!

Voyeur Professor
(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:23 - ID#231112)
Gold's resistance

It certainly is not a good sign that gold could not challenge its resistance at $295, let alone its secondary upward resistance at $303.70. And the XAU could not hold above 80. Last Wednesday Richard Burke and Allen were expressing their doubts about gold's ability to break its downward momentum. I share their concern, and Bill Buckler's perceptive observation that gold's inability to stay above 300 only 68 times this year. I'm afraid gold will languish for sometime.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:25 - ID#255226)
Prefered scenario for next week;

SnP gets hit for a short term correction under 1100.

Silver spikes down intra day to 4.40.

Gold spikes down to 275 intra day.

XAU during the metal sell off holds above 70.

If these events all happen at the same time I'd mortgage the farm to get in......well maybe the out house.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:28 - ID#417449)
Mike Sheller, Gollum - Surprises
One who is not certain can not be suprised IMHO

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:30 - ID#288186)
Wow...APH, That's quite a bit of movement your looking at...
Are you basing this on purely technical readings, an event of
great significance, or a combination of the two?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:32 - ID#242325)
Voyeur prof: We already go the word from RJ. Gold will not move until next year. And then some upside fireworks. Less than 2 months away.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:44 - ID#255226)
All TA, but it doesn't have to happen next week, it could take several weeks. Those entry points in my opinon are at almost no risk if all the events occur at the same time. A break out of the wedge would put me on the long side but there would be more risk and I wouldn't be as aggressive.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:52 - ID#432395)
Gold down 60 cents--TVX down 9%---CDN.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:53 - ID#43349)
I think the outhouse would work out. After having done all the mortgaging to get in one would be sitting so tightly on the edge of his chair he wouldn't need it.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:55 - ID#45173)
You mean the consumer spending blip in October went on Joe Sheeple's credit card? Imagine our suprise.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 16:58 - ID#43349)
Certainly not as taken aback as one who is certain. Of course you are right though. Consider an infant, who is only just learning what to expect. Any strange thing ( strange to our jaded eye ) could happen and would be accepted without dismay.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:08 - ID#288186)
11/06/98--FWN--As of Nov 03,1998
Non Commercial 2,964 -102 7,785 +542 32.7
spreading 0 +0 0 +0 0.0
Commercial 9,188 +519 6,498 +154 47.7
Tot lrg trader 12,152 +417 14,283 +696 80.4
Small traders 4,290 +377 2,159 +98 19.6
Total OI 16,442 +794
Still appears bullish via Commercial longs....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:09 - ID#271125)
This is a classic
of a credit crunch, monetary easing is widely perceived to be the urgent and appropriate policy response. Under Global "too easy"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:10 - ID#271125)
This is a classic
of a credit crunch, monetary easing is widely perceived to be the urgent and appropriate policy response. Under Global "too easy"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:11 - ID#271125)
This is a classic "prisoner's dilemma" for central bankers. Fearful of a
credit crunch, monetary easing is widely perceived to be the urgent and appropriate policy response. Under Global "too easy"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:11 - ID#45173)
"All the uncertainties affecting the market have gone"
Dow ends week up 4 pct, eyes 9000 milestone

By Huw Jones

NEW YORK, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - The Dow rose Friday to within easy
striking distance of 9000 points, capping a week where the blue chip
index gained more more than four percent as investor confidence waxed,
while worries about the global economy and President Bill Clinton

``All the uncertainties affecting the market have gone, with the only possible exception being Russia,'' said Courtney Smith, chief investment officer at Orbitex Management.
Well, then. Guess I'll just have to close out my short positions and jump back into the stock market. The only thing that bothers me is, I was told just a couple of weeks ago by bulls that markets don't crash when "The Crash of '98" is on the cover of Newsweek. They say it happens when the market is over-valued and everyone is feeling confident...


(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:15 - ID#386245)
Bart's poll
I want a recount!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:15 - ID#271125)
I think perhaps an "L" on my forehead would do!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:16 - ID#45173)
Gollum: "...and the storm may have passed..."
Dollar ends U.S. up as doom looks set to disappear

NEW YORK, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) - The dollar zipped to its highest close against the mark in six weeks and gained against the yen in unusually active trading where dealers saw and end to the lingering global economic

Inspired both by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's reassurance on Thursday that financial markets seemed less frightened by the crisis and signs an aid deal to stabilize emerging markets is close by, dealers bought dollars.

``I can hardly believe it, but there is a lot of volume going through today, people are actually out there buying again and the storm may have passed,'' a dealer said.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:17 - ID#43349)
Then there is Zen which is neither religion nor science and makes no statements concerning cause, effect, nor the nature of reality other than ulitmately it is larger in scope than the finite human mind.

Zen descended from Buddhism yet concerning dogma says, "If you meet the Buddha on the road, kill him!".

Zen developed over the course of a few thousand years of feudal society with wandering bandits and assorted mercinaries including the fabled samuri. People whose mind was too locked into dogma and preconcieved ideas perished. People whose mind was too far removed from the real physics of everyday life also perished. Zen remained.

In a way, Zen is an ideal frame of mind for the trader. Very objective. Very focused and yet very alert to the entire environment at the same time. A trade might be made as a result of studying chart or fundamentals but is quickly abandoned if it doesn't work as expected.

LTCM was too analytical and too arrogant in blindly following their sophisticated models.

A true goldbug would not be compatible with Zen. They would not be able to kill the Buddha.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:18 - ID#288186)
Steve Kaplan's post is up for Friday....Worth a browse!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:19 - ID#386245)
Now that everone is so confident(DOW)
It would be a good time for a crash, n'est pas??
Why does Puetz always disappear when the DOW is up?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:23 - ID#43349)
True, the storm may have passed.

I don't think so, though. The first wall builds up gradually and the eye comes suddenly. Everyone thinks the storm will be forever and then there is sudden calm. Everyone thinks the storm has passed.

The second wall come suddenly and with fury. Then slowly fades untill the storm is indeed gone.

Perhaps this time is different.

The samuri, however, has not yet sheathed his sword.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:26 - ID#43349)
Puetz's abscence is more a reason for concern than his presence would be.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:28 - ID#43349)
Away for a while
I have to tkae the Rottweiler to the vet. I'll be back later.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:29 - ID#386245)
XAU comment
So you guys/gals expect it to go up in a straight line, do you??

10 up, 4 down, 8 up, 3 down. You can live with that. Remember just a few weeks ago at 48?? Count your blessings. Next year you'll be complaining about the drop from 150 to 147. Buy the dips.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:36 - ID#386245)
Forget about gold!!!
Look at what has happened to nickel in the last 6 days. Is this the turnaround I've been waiting for?? Has someone bombed Norilsk??
Any nickel commentary out there??

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:43 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.58. The 233 day moving average is 28.94

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:44 - ID#34883)
The Third Way

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:44 - ID#45173)
Gollum: that's a big dog ya got there...
...hope he ( she ) is ok.

What may effect your expectation of the other wall of the storm is that the storm analogy does not apply here. The Zen thinker might be prepared soon to abandon the storm analogy at this point. Or keep it but acknowledge the power of those whose interests are to shove the storm over land where it runs out of water and peters out. Maybe they have truly killed the storm.

Or maybe the most recent storm is merely a tornado offshoot of a larger storm: falling asset values in a world of debt.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:46 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .270. The 233 day moving average is .247

Aragorn III
(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:49 - ID#212323)
The Bear on Wall Street arrives on cat's paws.
You "heard" it here.

.......Friday, raising a glass to all friends.....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:51 - ID#45173)
The difference between capitalism and socialism is that under capitalism, some get a coat to wear in winter and others do not. Under socialism, everyone gets half a coat, except party officials.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:57 - ID#34883)
1st, socialist economies can't calculate. 2nd, they don't provide incentives to produce, And 3rd, they lack a means of discovery.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 17:57 - ID#210253)
XAU:Spot Ratio at .270 is the reason for retreat of gold equities. At this spread the pullback was predictable. I am now beginning to see the value of the 233 day average. In this market, it may represent "fair value"?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:05 - ID#258142)
I made some money today on paper - Philips Nov calls. Bought a week ago, after deducting commission have 182% on investment. Sold today - looks like paper is going out of steam - maybe bit more up then retracement

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:11 - ID#119358)
@the rangitO society.......
How about that annual report? pretty snazzy. POlarbear, are we supposed to vote on this proxy sheet? salud!!!

AragOrn3...tip'o'da'glass to you, friend!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:13 - ID#386245)
Time to start accumulating physical again ( IMVHO ) .

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:15 - ID#45173)
Neither system produces the ideal: everyone is well-off and more or less equally so. The problem with socialism is that the system is better at distributing wealth than producing it; capitalism, the converse. Nations peopled by those with a collective memory hardship, such as those that experienced WWII directly, tend toward economic systems that promise greater distribution of wealth than production ( e.g., Europe and Japan ) . Nations with a majority voting public with no memory great hardship, such as the US, tend toward economic systems that promise greater production of wealth than distribution. More purist capitalist nations redistribute wealth via taxation but only to the extent that political peace is achieved. Americans put the Europeans down for their leftist economic policies. We shall see which system functions best when events become, as oris says, messy and smelly.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:21 - ID#258142)
pt news - hope was not posted before
Bosch Introduces Revolutionary Platinum

PressLink and on Business Wire's Web site at LAS VEGAS-- ( AutomotiveWire ) --Nov. 4, 1998--The Robert Bosch Corp. has redefined the premium spark plug market with the introduction of its new Platinum+4 spark plug.
The basis of the new Platinum+4 is Bosch's unique four ground electrode design,which provides multiple radial spark paths, as opposed to a conventional single ground electrode design with one axial spark path.
With the four ground electrode design, the spark finds the most efficient path from the platinum center electrode, ensuring the least electrical resistance. The resulting spark is longer, more efficient and more powerful than that of a conventional single ground electrode. This translates into optimal access to the air/fuel mixture, producing superior burn characteristics and peak engine performance over a longer plug life.
Bosch first introduced "pure platinum" technology to the aftermarket in 1985, and remains today the only aftermarket spark plug manufacturer with a pure platinum center electrode. With the Platinum+4, Bosch has raised the state-of-the-art in the spark plug industry to an entirely new level. This new technology builds upon the success of the Bosch Platinum spark plug, which the company will continue to market. Bosch has great equity in its Platinum line, and Bosch continues to be the only manufacturer using a pure platinum center electrode.
During production, the platinum center electrode is heat fused into an extended ceramic insulator, thus allowing the Bosch Platinum+4 to reach its self-cleaning temperature faster for smoother acceleration and optimal engine power. This process is exclusive to Bosch spark plugs. Bosch Platinum+4 features 75 percent more pure platinum in its center electrode than the current Bosch Platinum spark plug, for a longer spark plug life and peak engine performance.
An yttrium-alloy is added to the four ground electrodes providing up to double the wear resistance of a standard plug ground electrode. This results in a spark gap that remains unchanged. Plus, the new Platinum+4 spark plug is pre-set at the factory, so it never needs to be regapped.
Prior to the product's launch, Bosch conducted extensive functional and endurance testing. Tests confirmed that Bosch Platinum+4 transfers energy more efficiently to the air/fuel mixture resulting in a more powerful spark for smoother idling and acceleration. Other performance benefits confirmed were better cold restart reliability, improved fuel economy, and a longer performance life.
The Bosch Platinum+4 spark plug carries a full replacement performance
guarantee that extends throughout the entire vehicle manufacturer's recommended spark plug change interval.
Robert Bosch Corp., a subsidiary of Robert Bosch GmbH, headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany, has for more than 110 years been committed to developing innovative products for the automotive industry. A global company with more than 180,000 employees and annual sales reaching $27 billion, Bosch has earned a reputation as a quality supplier to both the automotive original equipment and the aftermarket. * CONTACT: Robert Bosch Corp.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:22 - ID#286230)
CNN is reporting that Gingrich has decided to resign his seat in congress

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:26 - ID#317193)
Suggest a read of Greenspeak

Please note the reference to the gold standard as being an automatic adjustment for capital flows...something abandoned...combined with the THOUGHTS that human beings can not cope fast enough with the present system.

Food for thought. Yes?


(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:29 - ID#29048)
AP breaking news says Gingrich will not seek a third term as Speaker of the House. Nothing about resigning his house seat.....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:34 - ID#29048)
CNN Bulletin

BULLETIN: Gingrich will quit Congress, sources say

Looks like an unconfirmed rumor at this time.....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:39 - ID#210282)
The Third Way
Mole: How appropriate! Fits right in with sharefin's post about the pigs becoming addicted to corn, and getting penned up for slaughter. Likewise, we humans become addicted to the handouts from big socialist government -- some of us, anyway. Individuals, and special interest groups.

And big socialist government perpetuates itself, once it reaches a certain critical time and mass.

I envy the Swiss approach to government where the Cantons are fierce supporters of individuality, and the 'president' is actually just a manager to travels to work on the trolley. Every year I think the 'president' is someone else, so the temptation to gather the trappings of power is much less. That is a real democracy.

Well -- what we do have in America is the independence of the American individual, free speech, and the traditional right to carry arms ( small ones anyway ) . As long as we maintain all of this, all is not lost, IMHO.

And -- we are not alone in the Universe as Apollo 14 Astronaut Edgar Mitchell has just said.

Let us hope that whoever or whatever intelligence in the Universe there is, sees our little blue planet and is helping us evolve. -- Into what I know we can be if we pull together -- an inquisitive spacefaring race -- just like the explorers of our past that risked the unknown on earth.

Our beautiful little blue planet must act like a beacon of life and ? to the rest of the universe.

So regardless -- we must keep what is good about democracy alive, so that we do not forget what it is like.

Let us hope that our US congressmen do not chicken out with the impeachment proceedings, just because they are facing a master at politics, and a master of lies. Why should they fear anything -- the next election is two years away!

A solid effort to follow established impeachment proceedings will go a long way to keep democracy alive.

I will worry if the impeachment process worked in 1974, but it fails to work now, with so much more evidence on the table.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:44 - ID#34883)
Utopia is not an option. You look to alter reality EJ, you look to change cause and effect of peoples actions, & you look to accomplish this with other peoples money, while destroying everyone's future.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:47 - ID#30345)
Nick@c re:nickel
Nickel usage has dropped. The primary usage for nickle is the manufacture of high grade chromuim molybdenum and nickel containing stainless steels. These products have suffered because of low oil prices and reduced industrial demand world over.

" While total deliveries of nickel decreased in the third quarter and first
nine months of 1998 relative to the corresponding 1997 periods, principally
reflecting reduced stainless steel production in Japan, deliveries of
Inco-source nickel increased."

If we get out of this that would be a good metals sector. It won't ramp up until the investment cycle surges in new industrial construction.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:48 - ID#348257)
low...and behold

What follows is a post to LGB, that lovable scientific skeptic, who has his doubts about astrology. Once before I regaled him with a prediction that brought in 50% in a week or so. I found it advisable to pound the lesson home with this post: ( note the date, and take a look at a chart of CRK - I called the ABSOLUTE bottom ) .

Date: Wed Oct 14 1998 19:47
Mike Sheller ( BUG-AL ) ID#348257:
So nice to see you again. I have another astrological stock pick for you. Sorry, but I can't
guarantee a 50% rise in a week like last time, but if I dont bring you 100% in a year on either
one of these, I'll buy you dinner. EEC and CRK. Buy them NOW, or forever hold your peace (
or is it "piece" ) . arrigato! ( it ain't rocket's only astrology. ( ;- )

CRK hit a high of 5 1/2 within a month of that post. Actually. far more than the usual 50% minimum on such moves I seek. I surprised myself. And hopefully LGB, who I find lovable no matter how curmudgeonly he acts.

Look at a chart of CRK and see If I lie. EEC is not faring so badly either.

Let those who understand and have practiced astrology criticize it. I think they will not. Only the ignorant chastise that which they do not understand.

XSYS marks the spot!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:49 - ID#45173)
Under the current circumstances, I agree. And tomorrow may be much like today. But next year may like no other year before. We shall see.

Gotta motor. Time to lose some money to my buds in a card game.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:54 - ID#348257)
Events HAVE become messy and smelly in Russia. Both as a result of chronic "socialism," and a follow-up gangster society - actually, not much different than the "communism" that preceded it, only in "private" Mafiosovitch hands.

There is only one system worth considering - true Capitalism - which has never been tried anywhere. It is the freedom of free people to make their own free contracts. Your idea of charity may not be mine, but you are certainly free to contribute any portion of YOUR income to any cause you espouse. Just don't force me to see it YOUR way.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 18:58 - ID#295111)
Farfel and his high IQ
I've been quite amused withh all the talk on Farfel latley.
I like him and wish he could post more often. I knew he was Jewish all along, one of the few times I've been right on this forum. I know he wants to be rich, and he will if he holds on to what he has... namely Gold.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:07 - ID#347457)
@ Delphi (Stocks)
Delphi - good for you! Hey, if we put together your gains and my loses, we may break even ;- )
You wrote: " I made some money today on paper - Philips Nov calls. Bought a week ago, after deducting commission have 182% on investment."

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:11 - ID#295111)
Abbess Cohen still bullish - time will prove her wrong

"Cohen said her favorite sectors for investing now include energy, financial services and computers, all of which should post
better earnings growth than the average of the S&P 500. U.S. paper makers and metals companies would likely have
below-average earnings because they have too many competitors around the world."

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:30 - ID#194311)
Now let's see, if LTCM are selling their bonds...
LTCM to sell 900m bonds

Long-Term Capital Management,the hedge fund that was the
subject of a $3.75bn bail-out in September, is planning to
auction off around 900m of five-year German government
bonds on Monday.

The auction will take a similar form to the successful sell-off last month of the fund's holding of UK gilts. Bond market
analysts said talk of the sale had a depressing effect on German bond futures yesterday. The German government has
scheduled an action of 3.5bn of five-year bonds for next

Comment: Is it possible then they will want to unwind the trade and buy back the gold they used to raise the cheap capital in the first place?
Hmmmm...I wonder how much a 900 million pound buyer on the gold market could move things?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:37 - ID#255226)
Getting IN - Getting OUT
I'm a big fan of the Fidelity Select Funds and trade them in my pension fund. I use to try and figure out which ones had the right fundamentals and the right time to buy and sell. I was either early, late or wrong all together. I then met a guy who was trading mutual funds for 4 and 5 percent and was wealthy because of it. I set out to do the same thing, the enclosed charts are the result of that effort. The crossing lines are moving averages based on gann numbers, they are not bollinger bands. I track all select funds plus some bonds, currency and country funds. As a result there is always something to be in. I have a few rules I follow for buying and selling. In the worst of years I can get 20%. I won't tell you exactly how I plot the averages, with a little work its not hard to figure out. It works on just about any fund. The message is if you're not getting the kind of returns you want find a mechanical system, keep it simple and forget about trying to figure out why this stuff goes up and down. if you have any questions

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:39 - ID#290281)
Noah's Ark If It Happen Today...........Gotta love this one!!
And the Lord spoke to Noah and said that in six months I am going to make it rain until the whole earth is covered with water and all of the evil people are destroyed. But I want to save a few people. A few good people and two of every kind of every living animal on the planet.

I am commanding you, Noah, to build an ark and the flash of lightning he delivered the specifications to build the ark. "Ok" said Noah, trembling with fear and fumbling with the blueprints. "Six months and it will start to rain", thundered the Lord. "You had better have the ark completed or learn to swim for a very long time.

Six months passed, the skies clouded up and the rain began to fall. The Lord saw that was Noah sitting in his front yard weeping and there was no ark, "Noah", shouted the Lord. "Where is the ark?"

"Lord, please forgive me," begged Noah. I did my best but there were big problems. First I had to get a building permit for the ark and your plans didn't meet code. So I had to hire an engineer to redraw the plans. Then I got into a big fight over whether the ark needed a fire sprinkler system. Then my neighbor objected, claiming that I was violating zoning by building the ark in my front yard. So I had to get a variance from the Planning Commission. Then I had problems from getting enough wood for the ark because there was a ban on cutting trees to save the spotted owl. I had to convince the US Fish and Wildlife that I need the wood to save the owls. The carpenters formed a union and went on strike. I had to negotiate a settlement with the National Labor Relations Board before anyone would pick up a saw and hammer. Now we have 16 carpenters going to the boat and still no owls. Then I started gathering up animals and I got sued by an Animal Activist Rights Group.
They objected to me taking only two of each kind. Just when I got the suit dismissed, EPA notified me that I couldn't complete the ark without filing an Environmental Impact Statement on your proposed flood. They didn't take kindly to the idea that they had no juristiction over the conduct of a Supreme being. Then the Army core of engineers wanted a map of the proposed new flood plans. I sent them a globe.

Right now I am still trying to resolve a complaint from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission over how many employees I am supposed to hire. The IRS has ceases all my assets claiming I am trying to avoid paying taxes by leaving the country.

I really don't think I can finish the ark for at least another five years, Noah wailed.

The sky began to clear, the sun began to shine and a rainbow arched across the sky. "Noah looked up and smiled and said,

"You mean you are not going to destroy the earth."
"NO" the Lord said, sadly, "THE GOVERNMENT ALREADY HAS"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:39 - ID#255226)
Another Chart
select energy service

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:44 - ID#348257)
Notice that Fidelity's Energy Servive low and buy point coincides with my call on CRK ( an energy issue ) based on astrological parameters. What a wonderful synchronistoc confirmation. All roads lead to...

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:45 - ID#348257)
that's energy SERVICE...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:45 - ID#215235)
Montreal Stock Exchange
Can anybody give me an address for the Montreal Stock Exchange? Thanks in advance.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:48 - ID#348257)
Abominable Snowjob
So now that the masses have spoken ( inarticulately ) the politicos are thinking better of impeachment proceedings. Don't want to bite the hand that feeds you, even if it should be slapped.

What did the scriptures say...? "when you see the abomination that makes desolate in the holy place ( with Monica Lewinsky kneeling before it ) then you know the end is near"

Get real...get gold.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:56 - ID#295111)
kiwi & LTCM
I'm not sure the sale of bonds will be enough to buy back all the gold they borrowed. I just hope they don't default, but if they do, it'll teach the CB's a good lesson. ( I know, I'been told the CB's have collateral for they gold they loaned out...but you just never no ... do you? )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:58 - ID#333126)
cute analysis on AMZN

(Fri Nov 06 1998 19:58 - ID#255226)
Mike Sheller
When the lines crossed over in energy service and I saw the double bottom on the chart, it was so compelling I put 100% of my account into the fund. As of today its up 16% in 2 or 3 weeks.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:04 - ID#401460)
"worst in 20 years"....1978..Hmmmmmmmm

``The coverage on the 10-year ( auction ) was the worst in 20 years and the coverage on the bond yesterday was the worst in seven years, which would normally is important by itself,'' Crescenzi said. ``But it said something even greater this time than the fact that there was light demand given current pricing in the market. It sent the larger message that basically the liquidity preferences that we have seen of late have been on the wane.''

The benchmark 30-year bond closed down 27/32 at 98-9/32 to yield 5.366 percent at 1500 EST/2000 GMT.
Two-year notes ended down 4/32 at 98-29/32 to yield 4.585 percent.

``You had a lot of non-traditional money that was parked here as the markets outside of bonds were less stable,''
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak Hirsch & Co., said. ``And now those markets are more stable, so the non-traditional money has flown out.''
Really? FWIW, I dont think so.


Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:09 - ID#295111)
Mike Sheller - Snowjob
Hi Mike, how about this for a snowjob....

ML=Monica Lewinsky, BC - Bill CLinton.

We all know ML had delsuions. They tell me this was one of her fantacies.

ML kept giving BC head until BC finally gave up and decided to divorce Hilary and thus marry ML. That was ML's secret agenda.

On the wedding day, BC walked up the aisle with a big grin on his face. His best man, Robert Rubin asked him why he was smiling so much? I just got another great blowj@b. I'm going to be able to get these blows every night without being worried about secrecy. I don't have to do it in the oval office any more, you know what I mean?

Then it was ML's to walk down the aisle. She also had a big grin on her face. The made of honour, Linda Tripp asked her why she had such a big smile.



Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:15 - ID#295111)
Ducthman - Try the links below to get to the MSE

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:16 - ID#401460)

That's the way it is, and getting worse. The story needs to be updated - OSHA, Radon, Woodpeckers, Fire Department, etc.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:18 - ID#257312)

Do you have any thoughts or projections on the price of Gold and the XAU over the next 3 to 6 months? Thanks.

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:26 - ID#295111)
shadowfax - Noah
That was a GREAT post. I can really relate. I had a skunk living under my deck. I wanted to kill it. I had a great plan. I would trap it. Then I would fill a drum full of water and drop the trap with the skunk in it and kill the thing. I was too stupid to tell my plan to my neighbor. Bad Miskate. There's a $5,000 fine for doing something like that and I could be put in jail.

I can't believe the laws we have. Police officers die in the line of duty and murderers get off on a technicality. I kill a skun, and I go to jail

What a farce!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:28 - ID#333126)
"he may wait until December"

hmmm......... yeah. right. hmmm ..... maybe.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:30 - ID#72316)
I don't know much about F* but he sure spices things up, and I like it

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:33 - ID#72316)
Anybody know anything about General Minerals..?
I'm the pro on it in Toronto and it's peaking it's head up lately..
Also own it full commish...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:34 - ID#333126)
shades of protectionism

paradigms, paradigms....

we obviously have reached a "new era", yes?

( awaiting the day the stock bulls get trashed big time )

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:36 - ID#341227)
@KORONDY...your post is ill-informed...
...and since I do not recognize your handle, my assumption is that you are relatively new to this site. Or else you are a pseudonymn handle created by one of my several detractors on this site.

Allow me to enlighten you...

Date: Fri Nov 06 1998 11:30
korondy ( Re: Farfel ) ID#81288:
Copyright  1998 korondy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I really value this forum ( Thank you, Bart Kitner & Kitco ) and the great insights on gold and mining issues ( Thank you, all ) .

I also value the diversity of perspectives, without which this site would be monotonously boring.

We are collectively responsible for maintaining the QUALITY of the forum so others find it of value. Attacks ( personal, ad hominem, class, race, ethnicity, religion, sexual, or drinking preferences ) are not welcome and do not contribute value. F* has been attacking people, not ideas.
F* answers:

Why is F* attacking people?

Because, there comes a point where enough is enough. There is a group of individuals on this forum that have set me up as a favorite scapegoat for the past year. They have learned that, historically, I have ignored most ad hominem attacks ( excepting June 29th, that is ) . They never respond to my various posts, instead simply issuing a spate of antagonistic personality assessments ( DISNEY is a classic example. As much as I have enjoyed ignoring this South African curmudgeon, he suddenly intrudes into my Universe, addressing me, and announcing his invention of his "Jewish Intelligence Perception Index" knowing fully well that such a comment is a flashpoint for myself as a proud Jew. Now, where did that left field comment come from? I cannot remember writing a post to Disney in over four months and have been quite content in ignoring him. Did he address any of my comments? No. Rather, in the true neanderthal manner that is his hallmark, he simply tries to bait me with his hatred of Jews ( I feel so sorry for his unfortunate Jewish wife. She must have some kind of self-hate complex to continue living with this guy. I only wish I could refer her to a S.African divorce barrister I know ) Surely, he baits me smug in his belief that there will be no retaliation...yet, he does not fully understand my background, my current associations, and my full commitment to the Jewish ideology of "Never Again" ) .

Anyway, this forementioned group of individuals hate my educational and religious pedigree and they hate my way with words. They hate that I challenge the very foundation of time worn "absolutes" in these precious metals markets. They hate that I do so as a relative "outsider" to their precious metals markets. They feel that the only value inherent in any KITCO posts is that which leads to know, the posts made by alleged "perfect" forecasters, the guys who make the best, most profitable PM calls.

Yet, Kitco is a gold/PM discussion forum, not simply a "Hall of Fame" for PM profiteers.

Anybody who goes back into my historical posts will see that I have posted a great number of theses pertaining to gold, notably regarding the economics of gold and the psychology of goldbugs. I recognize that many of these posts do not sit well with various posters on this forum as they provide iconoclastic ideas about the gold market, equities and bonds markets, and challenge a litany of iconic beliefs that have prevailed these past two decades. My ideas were written in order to challenge time worn catch phrases and so-called "truisms" and "axiomatic beliefs" prevalent amongst gold investors. In other words, I am a great sh*t disturber insofar as that I have learned that there are effectively no absolutes in any field -- not even the hallowed, old gold market ( e.g., who says a central bank gold sale is automatically "bad" for the price of gold...why not look at the purchase end of the sale and make the judgement on that perspective? When the sale is intra-central bank, then why should the average gold investor give a hoot? Why is there always this same old Pavlovian knee jerk fear response to any such sale? )

Again, enough is enough. I have turned the left cheek on this forum long enough while LBUGABULLY and his ilk hound my posts and ad hominem me endlessly.

So, just keep those cards and letters coming...but be warned that I do not lack for verbal dexterity and those who slash at me personally via this wonderful internet medium best have excellent verbal skills themselves.

I am giving back.

My gloves are off.

Who's next?



(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:38 - ID#72316)
You wanna kill a little skunk?,, How bout if a Tantalus rex was living under my porch... You guys and your gun mentallity .. Geesh,, kill everything. Have you any idea how tough life is for these little critters.. You say you want Capitalism,, B.S

reagards, rb

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:39 - ID#412172)
Tantalus Rex
Of COURSE they will prosecute you for killing a skunk. Wouldn't you stick up for your kin too?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:45 - ID#401460)
U.S. consumers turned to credit cards in September

Total consumer installment credit surged a surprisingly strong $8.4 billion at a 7.9 percent annual rate, nearly twice the revised rise of $4.4 billion at a 4.2 percent rate reported for August.

Were they covering Margin Calls?


(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:47 - ID#320136)
Good eve, one and all Kitcoites
Haven't been around to browse much, so excuse me
if anyone needs to repeat anything on my behalf.
Just wonderin' what y'all think of the latest action
in gold and the XAU ( you too, F*, I'd really like to
hear of your current analysis ) . Steve Kaplan is all
out bullish for plat, but equally so for gold, now.

Are we close at hand for an up move in the metals, or
do the technicals/fundamentals indicate otherwise?
Please indulge my lack of direction vis-a-vis where
the precious winds are blowing as of late.

Someone was mentioning to me that Barton Biggs is now
bullish on Japan and overall markets. How long is this
general equities rally to last? Anyone?



Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:51 - ID#295111)
Farfel, your one of the best! Hey, but I like Disney a lot too!! You're both in my Kitco Hall of Fame list. I'll post it one day..perhaps near the end of the year...maybe new years eve. I only wish I could post as good as you two do.

Pick up your hockey gloves for now and start playing. Where do you see gold in the short term.?

When will we finally see the gold short squeeze. YOU KNOW it's gonna happen. When it si the big question.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:55 - ID#43349)
How did you like the dance?

Perhaps next time a longer one?

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:58 - ID#428218)
As the US races towards.........

The DOW at 9000....10000......

The US National Debt NOW only takes 86 seconds to increment another US$ 1 000 000 additional debt......

Three weeks ago it took, 114 seconds: last week it took 106 seconds....

A "classic" case of "Gamblers Ruin"....throw the dice again, and again !!

All silent on the Western Front......

(Fri Nov 06 1998 20:58 - ID#34883)
Thanks for reading the link & the commentary. Am not a fan of democracy without individual rights as a limitation on the power of the state as protection against the brute force of the collective, viz, the majority vote of the democracy.

Monday's junk:

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:01 - ID#413156)
Some Thoughts
May I say that the process of change in society originates in the evolution of the National Spirit of the Unconscious. This manifests in the social and economic life of the society producing changes in the balance between different groups. These changes then produce political changes which itself should combine elements of legality and symbolism. This legitimizes the formal transfer of power which is the final manifestation of the change in the collective unconscious. The materialistic view is purely physical demands and needs. If one has eyes, after all , that which allows the mind, the seat of the soul, to perceive, then one can easily see the direction of Gold.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:05 - ID#320136)
Thanks for asking; got stood-up halfway through,
left with a puny coursage...

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:06 - ID#348257)
Good move on your part jumping both feet into energy. This is the essence of contrarianism and buying low - something everyone talks about, then get all worried and nervous when the time comes. After the spring the real pressure will be off energy and a new bull unbfolding. Your 16% will be 75% by the end of 1999, or I'll take you to lunch!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:07 - ID#237299)
Tantulus: Ohhhh that smell.
I was raise on a farm, and you DO NOT want to trap a skunk. Onece trapped the first thing they do is spray every direction but Sunday. Then your faced with: A ) a godawful smell, B ) a very live, very pissed off skunk, C ) the sudden realization that you can't get close enough to let it go.

The logical man thinks, ah ha! I'll put it out of it's troubles with a well placed 22 shell. But this is also a mistake, as their last dying act is to leave a present for the world ( witness any skunk killed on the road )

This tempting, captive skunk is too much for any stupid dog to resist, so you'll be washing fido in the tub pretty soon.

Best to tempt it out with a trail of dog food leading somewhere else ( your neighbors porch? ) then patch the entry places.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:07 - ID#348257)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:07 - ID#43349)
I son't know what "Zen thinker" means. One does not think to do Zen.

The storm will have passed, with or without the second wall, when this descent has finished and the resulting fire in the hole run it's course:

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:08 - ID#43349)
Next time get a head of lettuce instead. Makes a better salad.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:09 - ID#243100)
Hello everyone.
I have a question I would like to ask and it concerns gold and silver. Are they ever going to amount to anything? I am beginning to believe that both of these metals have been removed form precious metal status. I'm speaking mainly of physical. Should this stuff still be considered worth buying.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:09 - ID#72316)
@ Farfell and my full commitment to the
Farfell,, news flash-- you guys lost the war... I'm trying to understand where the swords UP emotions come from..

F said--" and my full commitment to the
Jewish ideology of "Never Again" ) .

A lot of people on this planet must feel the same way at this time in history..

Hate, or that ego emotion of " never again" imprisons you, as similar occurances in my own life do..

As TREX says with total conviction, " I wanted to kill that skunk"...never putting his feet in that skunk's paws...

I'm not Jewish, but I certainly know some great guys who are, but they all, to a greater or lesser degree have bought into this movie thing...

Strange, but it puts up a barrier.. I suppose it's similar to what Germans and the other guys feel when they talk to each other.. That's right, Germans..


Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:09 - ID#348257)
what is the sound of one tent flapping?

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:11 - ID#428218) have got me a wee bit confussed.......

In the day to day running of this GOLD forum, nobody actually "knows" each other, only a "false" name at best. Some may well have become friends off the forum.

"Personnal attacks" on this forum can only be described as a form of "computer rage" akin to "road rage".....all very strange !!

With respect, now that I am told by yourself that you are Jewish....WE have a lot in common...........

Give an example for perpetual motion.

"A Scot running after a jew, chasing a penny rolling down a hill."

Och aye the nooooooooooooo..............


Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:12 - ID#348257)
this is really what I tune in Kitco for. RIIIIght. Talking about trapping a freakin' skunk under yer deck in a barrel of water. To kill it.

Hey, are those grits ready yet? My possum's gettin' cold.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:13 - ID#348257)
I gotta laugh.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:14 - ID#72316)
@ Sheller
You are right,, Let's talk about cusps and thangs

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:17 - ID#72316)
Buy GOLD and wear COAL

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:18 - ID#287358)
You are hallucinating again. I especially liked your line, "time worn catch phrases..." You are the king of "time worn catch-prases." You create time-worn catch-phrases. And now you are creating justification for doing so. It does not take new lurkers very long to realize the yada-yada, and you don't add anything of value on- or near-subject. I guess Bart wanted to keep you posting so the site would attract lurkers looking for "spice." Regarding your "never again," why not consider it in regard to your pushing the "submit" button. This is not the site you are looking for, just as this is not the appropriate site for the poster with the handle
"marshall." Your focus in life appears to be "hatred" cloaked in religion.
Gee, if I'm wrong, prove it by not posting your yada-yada, or anything at
all written in anger any more.


Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:22 - ID#295111)
I did kill the skunk. It was an easy kill. But you're right, there's nothing like a DEAD SKUNK!!!!!! Really, a dead skunk is something way worse than a live one. And live ones can spray there skunk oil up to twelve feet, something like a snake.

Anyway, after I killed the thing, my dad says...Ok now what are you going to do with it? I'm going to wrap it up in plastic and dump it. He said, NO YOU'RE NOT! I'M TELLING YOU YOU'RE NOT GOING TO PUT THAT THING IN THE GARBAGE!! And he told me for to 5 times with convistion.

Ok, So I wrapped in up in plastic. I use 3 garbage bags thinking I was safe. I put in my car and drove to crown land and burried it.

You know. The smell penetrated 3 BAGS OF PLASTIC!!!! I had a 1982 oldsmobile so the car was history anyway ( 16 years old ) . But f!ck, I couldn't get rid of the smell from that car. I ended up scrapping th car real quick.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:23 - ID#72316)
@ F*
F*,, do you wear one of those beanies on your head ?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:25 - ID#72316)
I hope that learned you

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:26 - ID#320136)
??? ! Your last comment was more confusing to me
than the gold market.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:27 - ID#30345)
As you can see gold is now the reserve of lunatics, but is soon to return to precious metal status. JOPO.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:29 - ID#255226)
Once these corrections are over, gold may have finshed this week, both silver and gold are near break out points even though I would like to see them drop further. Gold should easily hit 335 and the XAU 130.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:29 - ID#401460)



Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:29 - ID#428218) have got to have a sense of humour..........

There are four kinds of people that live in The World.

First are the Scots, Who hold onto their children and anything else they can get their hands on.

Next are the Americans, Who pray on their knees and on their neighbors.

Then there are the Arabs, Who don't know what they want, but they'll fight anyone for it.

And last, but not least, there is Farfel: who is a self made man, which relieves the Almight of any responsibility!

Och aye the noooooooooo..........


(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:30 - ID#72316)
@ all Farfell/Jewish discidents
The SKUNK was "an easy KILL" but the stench never let him go...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:31 - ID#341227)
CHASABAR...I feel compelled to continue posting.... an antidote to your banality.

And if I am king of the catch worn phrases, then you are "King of the Burned-by-Pegasus-and-Now-Hates-Farfel" crowd.

You are also king of the "Jerry Seinfeld-Baby-Boomers'-Lemmings-Fans-CLub-Loves-TV-Sitcom-Yadda-Yadda-Catch-Phrase-Ad Nauseum-For-Lack of Anything-Intelligent-to-Say" crowd.

But if you fail to comprehend, then let me speak your language again...

"Yadda yadda yadda yadda goo goo goo goo."



P.S. Does Bart maintain your posting rights on this site as an affirmative action move for the mentally challenged?

Please fill us in.


Chicken man
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:31 - ID#341297)
Mike Sheller @ Is inflation that sweet?
Hey Mike....did you get a chance to compare the sugar and CPI charts?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:33 - ID#215235)
Thanks for the link.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:33 - ID#237299)
Tantulus: he he he..
God sure gave them a formidable deterrant.

Hey! Mike Sheller, Arby. Methinks the two of you were raised in a city on canned goods. Things die. Sometimes man kills them. Deal with it. My dad taught us to never relished taking any life, regardless if it was for food for the table or the chore of ridding farm pests.

When you go to the grocery, just *where* do you suppose that food came from. And is not ALL of it now dead? ( at the hand of man )

It always puzzles me that an otherwise thinking person might swat a fly or set a mousetrap, yet draw curious distinctions about what is *ok* to kill.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:34 - ID#341227)
@HAGGIS...I'll always maintain my sense of humor...
...with you, Old Man.

Just the thought of you dressed in a kilt keeps me smiling.



(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:34 - ID#413156)
Only a Friday night Joke
3 guys are in a bar.....

1st guy looks at the bartender and says give me an MGD....

The bartender hands him the drink and exclaims, "You have the smallest hands I have ever seen in my whole life!!! I bet those are the smallest hands in the world. You should go to the Guiness Book Of World Records and get in it for the smallest hands in the world."

The man thanks him for the tip and says that he will go down first thing in the morning.

The 2nd man overhearing the conversation buts in and says, "Well I have really small feet." He takes off his shoe and puts his foot on the bar.

The bartender looks and says, "Those are the smallest feet I have ever seen in my whole life!!! I bet those are the smallest feet in the world. You should go to the Guiness Book Of World Records and get in it for the smallest feet in the world."

Not too long after the 3rd man says well I have a really small dick. He unzips his pants and whips it out.

Again the bartender says, "You have a tiny dick. I bet that is the smallest dick in the world. You should go to the Guiness Book Of World Records and get in it for the smallest dick."

So the 3 men go to the guiness book and apply for there records and return to the bar. The bartender asks, "How'd it go?" The first man replies, "It is great!!! I have the smallest hands in the world."

Second man says, "Yeah and I have the smallest feet." The third man is quiet and the bartender asks him if he is alright. The man replies with a puzzled look on his face, "I'm fine, I just wish I knew who this guy named F* is!!!"

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:34 - ID#401460)
arby, you are out of line, not an appropiate comment.

Date: Fri Nov 06 1998 21:23
arby ( @ F* ) ID#72316:
F*,, do you wear one of those beanies on your head ?


Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:35 - ID#295111)
I did kill the skunk. It was an easy kill. But you're right, there's nothing like a DEAD SKUNK!!!!!! Really, a dead skunk is something way worse than a live one. And live ones can spray there skunk oil up to twelve feet, something like a snake.

Anyway, after I killed the thing, my dad says...Ok now what are you going to do with it? I'm going to wrap it up in plastic and dump it. He said, NO YOU'RE NOT! I'M TELLING YOU YOU'RE NOT GOING TO PUT THAT THING IN THE GARBAGE!! And he told me for to 5 times with convistion.

Ok, So I wrapped in up in plastic. I use 3 garbage bags thinking I was safe. I put in my car and drove to crown land and burried it.

You know. The smell penetrated 3 BAGS OF PLASTIC!!!! I had a 1982 oldsmobile so the car was history anyway ( 16 years old ) . But f!ck, I couldn't get rid of the smell from that car. I ended up scrapping th car real quick.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:36 - ID#432395)

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:36 - ID#224230)
Another uneventful day in Gold
What kind of consciousness-altering event will it take for gold to put its crown back on and take centre stage. I'm waiting...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:36 - ID#300202)
La Belle Province @ sick & tired of separation talks.
Waitin' for a boat from France sayin' "Mon back". Won't happen. If they separate, Newfoundlanders will have a shorter drive to Toronto. "Friendly Giant" gets awarded Order of Canada ( Selby wud appreciate ) . Equivalent to maybe Mr Rogers. Rusty the Rooster & Jerome the Giraffe were shunted.

Waitin' for LaFrancais Clipper

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:37 - ID#295111)
arby, roebear, @ALL
Yes, I learned my lesson.

I've gotta sign off for now. Happy chatting...ADIOS

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:38 - ID#430275)
@Mike Sheller
Is it a Sagitaurius tent or a Capricorn?

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:38 - ID#428218)
Farfel........have you ever taken a holiday in Scotland .....

It was a hot summer afternoon, and all the scots were pursuing their favourite hobby - drinking whiskey in the pub.

Suddenly, the door bursts open, and a man comes in panting, his tongue lolling and totally black in colour.

"Aye Laddie, and where are you from ?"

Originally Canada, but I'm now living in California", Farfel replied

" What happened , Laddie?", inquired one of the regulars.

" Well, a bottle of whiskey fell on the hot tar road. " said Farfel.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:38 - ID#341227)
@ARBY...sometimes, I wear those "beanies"....
They're called "yarmulkes" or "skullcaps."

They represent the Jew's covenant with God...similar to a Christian's wearing the cross around his/her neck, representing a commitment and faith in Jesus.



(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:40 - ID#243100)
I am a lunatic--- how sweet will be the word precious.
Precious, precious and more precious. Amen

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:40 - ID#224230)
And greetings from the 2nd decan of cancer !

Tantalus Rex
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:41 - ID#295111)
Non, mon amis.

But I'm am going out for a few shots of scotch and pints to chase with friends. So when I return, I guess I could be tanked as you might correctly guess, au'revoir.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:43 - ID#341227) take the high road...
...and I'll take the low road...

...and I'll be in Scotland before yee.




Chicken man
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:43 - ID#341297)
Gollum @ 21:07
Gee.... Mr.Greenspan....dah..does that chart mean interest rates might go up? would anybody like his job!!!

Think the fur is going to start to fly...but first we need a nice ( all is well type ) rally..

Any body think that the Chinese might punish the USA if Clinton and the Dali Lama have a pow-wow?

BTW..did Brazil fall off the face of the third rock from the sun???...
Ain't hearing much news

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:43 - ID#430275)
I was just thinking there is nothing more useless than a lousy carnation at the end of the dance. A head of lettuce, I guess, though would be harder to wear.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:47 - ID#257312)

Muchas gracias. The good Baron Von Finck will be pleased as well.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:47 - ID#432395)

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:47 - ID#428218)

Why do Scotsmen refuse to invest on Wall Street ?

They don't believe that the light will go out when the doors all close !

"Lighten " up ??!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:49 - ID#290456)
Friday nite skunks and beers

Give a man a beer and he will waste an hour. Teach a man to homebrew and he will waste a lifetime.
----------------------------------------------- Go gold

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:52 - ID#432395)
Man takes drink--Man takes drink---Drink takes Man...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:53 - ID#341227)
@HAGGIS...Ok, I'll take just a....
...wee, wee, wee, wee, wee, wee, wee, liddle drinkie wid you tonight.

But I musn't tarry wid you or me wifie will be leaving this poor laddie outside the door tonight without no nookie.

Och Nay OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.



(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:53 - ID#200235)
Being of scotch - Irish decent, I offer the following thoughts:

That means that I spend half of my time getting drunk and the other half trying not to pay for it.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:56 - ID#287358)
To paraphrase another poster--

"Farfel, you are quite capable of being disliked based on your very own merits."

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:56 - ID#320136)
If postings are drunken now...
think of how looney the tunes in ANOTHER time,
when gold goes to $30,000....

----- got lettuce?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:57 - ID#300202)
wud like to be at a Kitco gathering. I am confident with the mind level of posters here that there wud be no squabbles. Cybertalk surfaces the darkside. Wonder what Carl Jung wud have said? Probably wud have said to get a life. Most comments not all that serious-overinterpretation. Kinda like fallin' in luv with a 1 900 call.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 21:59 - ID#350145)
chicken man and bonds
everytime i see bonds take another hit i think about you chicken man. that was a good call. i have to say, i sure didn't see it. i am wondering if the euro is going to take a further toll on both stocks and bonds.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:01 - ID#284255)
Worth a look???

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:02 - ID#341227)
@CHASABAR...I never paraphrase DISNEY...
I'm an original.

You should try an original thought yourself too. It's not as difficult as it appears.

Here's one:

"Chasabar, you are quite capable of being disliked on the basis of your non-entityness."

( non-entityness...that's a neologism, so don't bother looking it up in a dictionary, Chas, OK? I'll explain it to you in a later post )



(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:03 - ID#72316)
@ Caper
You want serious--- How bout gold $1.99 a pound

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:06 - ID#333123)
esotericist: I would like to contact you. Could you e-mail me at address above? Max Moseley

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:11 - ID#254288)

Get off the bull and buy some gold, or go over to another forum to spew the bull; perhaps your detractors will join you.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:14 - ID#30345)
Yes. My lettuce is sure going up faster than the POG these days, but I think I going to need some guano.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:14 - ID#287358)
Given the increased interest in the energy service sector, and your bullishness on oil, on which subject we are in agreement, which out-of-the-money oil calls would you recommend? I want to have an exposure of $10,000. maximum, and have at least two expiration dates, to spread the risk. I spent an hour reading Richard Maybury's EWR last night, and now I don't want to wait any longer to invest ( speculate ) in this field. Please advise. ( I already have a Platinum plan, so now oil, and then some sort of crop. Not sure which. )

Any recommendations from other posters?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:15 - ID#72316)
@ Jack

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:16 - ID#300202)
Thinks ur a closet yarmulkes wearer. Probably refer to ur children as Beanie Babies. Had a neighbour who was a practicing Sikh-yeah sure & I'm a practicing Catholic. Went to his house & he answered the door sans his turban. Said me=Gotcha. Ran to his closet & threw on a baseball cap. Went inside & saw a Chritmas tree. To a fault we are all phoney. What's my point. Got none-just enjoyin' life. Am workin' om my iambic pentameter.
I'm not serious if u haven't guessed already. Waitin for my house to sell so I can buy more Franklin Mint coins.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:18 - ID#432395)
Is This The Real Kitco Site???---If Homer Simpson, and Al Bundy start posting
I'm off to bed PRONTO!!!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:18 - ID#237299)
I always look to your updated swing cart with keen interest. I notice you always follow it with something like "where to from here?"

I'm curious where you think it will go? Continued rising for a bit, or a Richter 9.0 quake?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:21 - ID#320136)
Caper, longj
Caper: Kitco party sounds like a definite "to do"
gala in '99 - to celebrate our common prosperity!
..BYOL ( read lettuce )

longj: absolutely! But wait a minute.. what's

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:21 - ID#401460)
Kitco & Booze

Look out F* is drinking again.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:21 - ID#347457)
This forum wouldn't be so bad if ..
I did not have to skip over 10,000 posts which come from juveniles ( or grown up men going senile ) pissing at each other. Leave that F* guy alone, he may shut up after all and save some bandwidth for people who have something intelligent to say.

Back to sleep until this nonsense stops.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:22 - ID#34883)
Critique of the gold standard from a most unlikely source...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:23 - ID#401460)

Why is F* even posting here?


(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:24 - ID#300202)
I'm fishin & will make up my own mind-BUT AM interested in ur Platinum Plan. TIA.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:24 - ID#30345)
Guano is a high nitrogen organic fertilizer derived from chickens, bats. Very comparable to some of my posts.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:26 - ID#347457)
Why? Beats me. :-o I guess every other forum rejected that nonsense which starts with his pure presence.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:26 - ID#433172)
Ethics anyone?
What is being discussed here on Kitco, relative to gold, government, the fed,etc can ultimatly be reduced to a lack of or critizism of human ehtics. Is it ethical for CB's to suppress the price of gold? etc.etc.
The law, imperfect as it is, is an attemptm to force us to respect ethics.

In my view an ethical approach to all our desires and probably our fears is what we learn on the "road of life". I have 4 dogs, they and thier predecessors have taught me as much as, no more than any religion or be a good boy movie about a proper course. That includes when to bite.

When I was a kid I killed everything in sight, by the time I was 18 I was done with it. I still killed now and then to eat, but I minimized it. Animals can teach us a lot about what most people consider thier higher function....including when to bite..we'd better learn.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:28 - ID#237299)
You know...a millenium Kitco party -tis not a bad idea!

Since we'll all get to try out our new beta versions of Foobar 4.0 on the same date, might as well make a party of it. Be fun to put some faces with the philosophies.

Who'll take charge of the options? Selling puts and calls on fistfight action?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:32 - ID#401460)

OK, makes sense to me.


(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:32 - ID#300202)
Luv it!
Pre Y2K gala. Wud be written up in the Cape Breton Post social column-Tea was served by........

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:33 - ID#72316)
@ Caper
Yarmolucks--- It's quite interesting that since we have no indentifacation , ( like a SKUNK ) , then we invent them.. Don't you think...


(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:33 - ID#206235)
@ Lou-Jan
Good to see you here again! My only complaint with your post is that you're encouraging *Fboy. Just look at his post to Korondy ( a guy he claims is a newcomer but who was actually here long before *Fspot was even conceived! )

Look at his long rambling silloqy's in defense of the indefensible bahvaiour he's exhibited...on a more frequent basis by far than all otehr Kitcoites combined.....

Don't encourage him Jan! This *Fspot needs SERIOUS intervention from the mental health authorities.....

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:35 - ID#206235)
@ *F and alcohol
Apparently someone forgot to tell *F that alcohol is a neurotoxin..... extremely destructive in large doses..... as to his posts here I keep encouraging him to go over to USAcheerlead'd be much more up his alley.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:35 - ID#320136)
Though I don't normally trade options, make mine
a ringside seat!!!! ANOTHER as guest speaker, perhaps?
I couldn't imagine anything more enthralling to ring
in a new millenium. Gives some of us a chance to grow
up between now and then. hehe However -- if gold is
still not over 300, count me out and buried!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:37 - ID#206235)
@ Lou-Jan...... Gold to be $480
Not to worry Lou-Jan.... Gold will be $480.00 on 1/1/2000... and remember...the new millenium does not begin until one year later.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:39 - ID#227290)
ChasAbar - Crude Oil Calls
Saw your post. I recently purchased 2 March $15.00 call options for $850 ( they closed today at $800 ) . I like the March options although they are a bit pricey. I personally rather pay a higher premium in exchange for a little more time.

These options expire in mid February. March crude closed today at $14.48. So for $800...

1. You get an option that is only $.50 out of the money.
2. You have better than 3 months for prices to turn around.
3. Being so close to your strike, could land a healthy profit if prices turn bullish.
4. You can always give yourself until Christmas ( or until you lose half your stake ) . If prices haven't made a move by then, you can always cut your loses and concentrate your efforts on farther out options.

I have found that no matter what you do, make sure you have a plan and stick to it.

Hope this helps a little!

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:40 - ID#320136)
POG fever
... course I can't remember the *last* millenium
party I've been to, as a means of comparison.

Greetings BUGal. Glad to see everyone's feeling
good this evening.

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:41 - ID#428218)
Some intersting articles on GOLD.....

Via the World Gold Council

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:43 - ID#300202)
Hot Stove League
I think spirited debate is what makes Kitco unique. Let's build on it.
I for one have nothing to add to PM advice but am here to learn-shud everyone agree-I wud be gone! Gone for another Wintergarten wine. I listen to philosopher T YOUNG & oh yeah-where r u Bully Beef?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:48 - ID#222231)
All this claptrap about F* stinks
Has everyone forgotten who the true maligners are? I do not condone F*s actions ie. calling upon Bart to censor ?, or his reaction to the baiting by you know who. I do know that F* responded in a congenial and friendly manner to his tormentors for quite a while until their actions finally made him act irrationally. Does anyone remember the insulting and derogatory posts that were made towards anyone ( Not only F* ) that dared contradict them?

F*, everytime you respond to these cumdrugeons ( RECIDIVISTS ) , you empower them to continue. They remind me of WJC & Co.. Spin and attack.

Return to a true Jew that had a Bar Mitsvah who was of age and ready to be called a mature, responsible MAN.

This will stop only when those that knew the real F* ( I sincerely hope he meditates upon this and returns to his better days ) , make those truly responsible for these foodfights, be taken to task and told in no uncertain terms to stop and desist. We can and should police these actions by others, not only F*.

Sorry, had to get it off my chest.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:50 - ID#72316)
@ George
All those animals you still kill have more Ethics then you... What the f&%k gives you the right to kill them except that you can.. Wild animals are deep and true,, a trait missing in our species. They don't lie to themselves ...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:50 - ID#187109)
Chasabar....on oil.....this is not a recco.....
If'n I had 10g's to spend I wouldn't be lookin to make money on oil right now. If'n I had to though it would be oil stox w/ no expiry. Oil will follow gold ( vice versa? ) and it ain't doin nothin right now. Calls and puts aren't a good strategy unless you plan to lose it all or unless it is hedged one way or the other and you had entry AND EXIT points in mind ( your strategy set in stone ) . If you were really hot on throwing your money at options only throw a portion of your cashy therein..........and throw the rest into some longer term stockies..................and 'write' some puts if you think the lows are in............ ( I am not so sure ) . ( and this is coming from a guy who 'plays' mostly options ) ......

Sacrifice higher strike price for more time 'cause this trend may not change for a while and time will EAT your duckets AWAY. Set a price for exit and don't hold ANYTHING longer than your exit points ( stops ) ................ ( contain your losses )

Hell, you're better off buying Disney ;- ) ) ....... sail the goodship......E Capitn Mrgan...


oil ain't indeedy.

study your grains................keenly..........and a lioness in the tall grass................w/w...........nimbly................pimbly.........................I'm getting thirsty.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:51 - ID#266105)

Any comments on the Japanese 6-month T-bill going for negative
interest rates, being repaid less in principal six months out
than the current purchase price which is at premium to face value.
This morning's WSJ article stated that negative interest rates
are a rare occurrence, appearing most notably in the depression
era when government bonds at any price were seen as a preferable
risk to depositing savings in the banks for fear of bank failure.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:52 - ID#300202)
Not a bad idea. How about posting requirements for real names/tel #'s. Naaaah! Kitco wudn't be a gud site. Kitcoites fantasyland wud be gone. Survey says some posters have 3/4 nicks. Just ask T Young.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:54 - ID#210114)
John Gray sees the Light
National Review, April 27, 1992 v44 n8 p32 ( 6 )

The road from serfdom: F.A. Hayek spent years in the wilderness for arguing that socialism was the road, not to prosperity and justice, but to tyranny. ( includes tributes by politcal analysts ) John Gray; Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn; Ralph Harris; Milton Friedman; William F. Buckley Jr..

AS WE look back on the excitement caused by the publication of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, we wonder how it could have happened. It is a tribute to him, and to his small book, that we should be able to say this. The principal theses of the book are by now so very well known, even if they are not by any means universally accepted, that they appear almost self-evident. Hayek had always taken scrupulous care to give credit, if it were faintly plausible to do so, to others who articulated ideas before he did, and indeed sometimes, on reading the footnotes to The Constitution of Liberty, one almost has the feeling that the book is a collection of after-dinner toasts by Hayek to great philosophers, political thinkers, and economists, from Thales to Ludwig von Mises. But he could not shrug off the credit for having brought much of it together: the integrated perception of the relation between law and justice and liberty. And, in an age swooning with passion for a centralized direction of social happiness and economic plenitude, he gave that squirt of ice water, presaged by the quotation he selected as epigraph to his book, the wary observation of David Hume that "it is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once."

Rather, Hayek explained, it is lost gradually; and it is lost by assigning vague, extra-lawful mandates to men of political authority who take on tasks they cannot be expected to perform without absorbing all the knowledge, values, preferences, and passions of all their fellow men; and this no political authority--indeed, no animate or inanimate body--can do. Accordingly, the political authority has no alternative but to usurp. The necessary result of that usurpation is the corresponding loss in freedom of the body in which the authority previously reposed. Over time, that kind of movement must lead us down the road to serfdom, into that amnestic void toward which, Orwell intuited, evil men were for evil purposes bent on taking us; which void Michael Oakeshott saw us headed toward under the impulse of our own indisposition to bear the heavy responsibilities of freedom.

Professor Hayek gave perhaps the greatest example of his intellectual courage when, in his great book on liberty, he girded his loins, kissed his wife goodbye, made out his will, and came out against the progressive income tax. That was both audacious and exhilarating; and indeed if ever his counsel on the matter were accepted, I have no doubt whatever that any society would benefit comprehensively, and that the tuning fork of justice would resonate with the joy of bells in the morning.

But on the one occasion when he spoke of a "liberal utopia" I doubt that ( for once ) he weighed his words as cautiously as he tended to do. Without the progressive tax we would be left, for instance, without any guide to how the liberated taxpayer should spend his repatriated surplus; I know of nothing in libertarian literature that is instructive on the point. There is a great and brooding literature that is highly instructive on such moral matters, but it is a literature that speaks with authority to a world endowed with free will. We don't need to be reminded ( or do we? ) that heaven is not for this, but for another, world; and that final satisfactions are taken from adventures in faith, hope, and charity unrelated to the marketplace. In that other world, I do not hesitate to predict that Friedrich von Hayek will be praised for his contributions to a social philosophy that reflects the dignity of metaphysical man.

Four months ago, Professor Hayek was given the Presidential Medal of Freedom at a ceremony in the White House. His citation says it all: "Friedrich August von Hayek has done more than any thinker of our age to explore the promise and contours of liberty. He grew up in the shadow of Hitler's tyranny and devoted himself at an early age to the nurture of institutions that preserve and expand freedom, the lifeblood of a full life. The Road to Serfdom still thrills readers everywhere, and his subsequent works inspire people throughout the world because they possess the vigor and feel of real life --not just the hollow ring of abstract theory. Professor von Hayek has revolutionized the world's intellectual and political life. Future generations will read his works with the same sense of discovery and awe that inspire us today."

Mr. Gray is a Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford, and author of Hayek on Liberty. He wrote this essay during a period of residence as Stranahan Distinguished Research Fellow at the Social Philosophy and Policy Center, Bowling Green, Ohio.

New Statesman ( 1996 )

September 18, 1998

SECTION: No. 4403, Vol. 127; Pg. 25; ISSN: 1364-7431

HEADLINE: The second death of laissez-faire; outdated policies threaten notion
of free market in the UK

BYLINE: Gray, John

John Gray sees centre-left governments clinging to obsolete orthodoxies

When my book False Dawn was published this spring most reviewers dismissed my prediction that the global market was heading for breakdown as an apocalyptic fantasy. Less than six months later, that claim has been largely vindicated. The regime that a seemingly unshakeable consensus took to be permanent has begun to fall apart. Soon, I have no doubt, it will be an irrecoverable memory.

This week, the leaders of the Group of Seven industrial nations acknowledged that "the balance of risks in the world economy had shifted"; and the International Monetary Fund's Asia-Pacific director was reported as saying that some controls on capital movements, previously anathema, may be needed "to prevent excesses and abuses". A year or so from now, it will be difficult to find a single person who admits ever having believed that a global free market is a sensible way to run the world economy.

False Dawn's reception confirmed one of its central theses. Contemporary opinion does not know how to distinguish utopian fantasies from historical realities. It should always have been obvious that it was unrealistic to refashion the world's diverse economies on the singular model of the free markets. It is - or should be - self-evident that the world's varied economies express its diverse cultures. All economic systems are imperfect; none is suitable everywhere. The attempt to make any of them universal can only have the most dystopian results. Yet belief in a universal and uniform free market became for a while a litmus test of sound thinking, not only on the neo-liberal right but in the ranks of the centre-left.

Like the unvarying routine of an Alzheimer patient, history remains fresh by being continually forgotten. The late-20th-century political fad for the free market came about when memory of it had faded. Mid-Victorian laissez-faire was short-lived. ( Some historians have even suggested that it never happened at all. ) It came about in England as a result not of slow evolution but swiftly, as a consequence of the unremitting use of state power. Through the Enclosures, the Poor Laws and the repeal of the Corn Law, a parliament in which most people were unrepresented turned land, labour and bread into commodities like anyother. But, as the franchise was widened, the needs of ordinary people found political expression. The free market withered away gradually through the natural workings of democratic political competition. By the first world war,the economy had been largely re-regulated.

The short history of the free market in 19th-century England illustrates a vital truth: democracy and the free market are rivals, not allies. "Democratic capitalism" - the vacuous rallying-cry of neo-conservatives everywhere -signifies ( or conceals ) a deeply problematic relationship. The normal political concomitant of free markets is not stable democratic government but the volatile - and not always democratic - politics of economic insecurity, encouraging the likes of Ross Perot, Jean-Marie Le Pen and a host of lesser demagogues.

Free market economies lack built-in stabilisers. Without effective management by government, they are liable to recurrent booms and busts - with all their costs in social cohesion and political stability. The Great Depression was partly an aftershock of the first world war, which left an unstable balance of power in Europe. But it was also a consequence of governments holding to an orthodoxy which believed that, so long as inflation was under control, the economy would be self-regulating. It was against the background of slump and political upheaval aggravated by this orthodoxy that Keynes developed his proposals for managing the economy; but it took the catastrophe of the second world war to jolt governments into implementing them.

Despite important differences, our circumstances today have some curious parallels with those of the interwar period. Now, as then, the world has failed to cope with the effects of a cataclysmic geopolitical shift. In the 1990s, as in the 1920s, the defeat of one of the world's great powers has been the occasion for an exhibition of callow dogmatism and hubris.

The results of attempting to impose free markets on Russia have been ruinous. Placing the control of inflation above any other objective has not only caused the economy to shrink by a half - a development that is unprecedented in any advanced country during peacetime - it has also made hyperinflation inevitable, and a second change of regime increasingly probable. The government that emerges from the coming Russian winter will be authoritarian even if it retains the apparatus of democracy, it will be in some degree anti-western and it will defect from the policies imposed by the western economic consensus. These are not remote or hypothetical possibilities. They are now near-certainties.

Economic collapse in Russia is the first unequivocal sign of the breakdown of global laissez-faire; but east Asia has been signalling severe strain in the world economy for at least a year. Contrary to triumphalist and frequently racist interpretations in the western media, the Asian depression does not signify a crisis of Asian capitalism - Asia's economies are too dissimilar for that - but a fast-developing crisis of global capitalism. Uncontrolled capital flows have inflicted heavy and lasting damage on Asian countries as different as Thailand, Indonesia and Korea. The depression they have produced has spread to China. Now, footloose capital threatens to destabilise other regions of the world, notably Latin America. The myth that Asia's economic difficulties are a symptom of the peculiar vices of its "crony capitalism" is no longer credible - even in the United States.

Now that American markets have at last begun to realise their vulnerability, full-scale panic among America's 100 million private investors must be a real possibility. Yet the political class in the US is presently preoccupied with whether or not serial fellatio constitutes a sexual relationship. As in the 1930s, a crisis of the global economy is unfolding at a time when the international community is in effect leaderless.

Because larger numbers of Americans have exposed more of their wealth to the stock market than ever before, a sustained slide on Wall Street will have a greater economic impact than in the past. Unemployment will surely rise - at a time when the federal welfare safety net inherited from the Roosevelt era has been torn apart. And it is a well-worn truth of economic history that countries which lack a well-developed welfare state tend to resort to trade protection in times of economic difficulty. What else can they do to protect their people from deep poverty and their nation from consequent social unrest?

There is every likelihood, therefore, of a strong resurgence of American protectionism. The US commitment to free trade is not, after all, long-standing. In that country's longer history it looks more like an aberration. So it is likely to be the US that first ditches the "Washington consensus" which it has tried to impose on the rest of the world. America's experiment in imperial laissez-faire was the geopolitical expression of a stock-market bubble. Now that bubble has been pricked, we will hear no more ranting sermons on the unique virtues of the American economic model.

The coming world slump bodes ill for the Blair government. So far it has achieved the remarkable feat of running ultra-orthodox fiscal and monetary policies in tandem with an interventionist labour policy. The contradiction within new Labour between neoliberal monetarism and a neo-Rooseveltian New Deal does not matter greatly so long as the economy stays buoyant. If Britain's recession is deeper and longer than has been officially forecast, that tension will become explosive.

The government's support among first-time Labour voters depends crucially on their perception of its economic competence. The Tories - far more heavily compromised by the cult of the free market than Labour - are not at present a serious threat. Even so, it can no longer be taken for granted that Labour will be in office for two full terms.

New Labour is rehearsing a familiar pattern in which a centre-left government loses control of events by clinging to a defunct economic consensus: the gold standard in 1931, and the unrealistically high value of the pound in the early stages of the Attlee and Wilson governments. It is not too late to prevent another such debacle. The government could change the mandate of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee to allow it to take account of employment as well as inflation when it sets interest rates. As Japan has shown, cutting interest rates is not enough to deal with a deflationary crisis; but amending the Bank's brief would give it a vital freedom in responding to events. Will the government show that its break with the past includes abandoning the Tory inheritance of monetarism? Or will new Labour go down in history as a repeat performance of the dismal comedy of errors performed by Ramsay MacDonald and Philip Snowden in 1931?

The Blair government has a never-to-be-repeated opportunity to take a lead in responding to the world economic crisis. The present regime of free capital flows cannot survive much longer. Internationally co-ordinated movement towards a global framework of regulation is the only alternative to the disastrous prospect of tit-for-tat protectionism. Will the government speak up for reform of global markets? Or will new Labour shake off the Washington consensus only when it has been repudiated by the United States and the rest of the world?

John Gray's book "False Dawn: the delusions of global capitalism was published by Granta in March this year

(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:56 - ID#210114)
John Glenn


This is a secret. Tell everyone you know.

When John Glenn returns from space, let's all dress in
ape suits.

Pass it on.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 22:59 - ID#348257)
Thank you so much for enlightening me as to where food comes from. Having grown up in New Yawk City, I never would have figured it out had it not been for you. As for "things die kills them," that is a very astute observation on your part. I hope you didn't find that out the way I did, didging bullets and mortar shells, and stepping over bodies. I will think of you from now on everytime I take up a can opener.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:00 - ID#348257)
make that "dodging" bullets...tho I did didge a few as well.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:01 - ID#348257)
Tantalus Wrecks
You mean you didn't bury the car in the back yard WITH the skunk? Is there a washing machine on your porch?

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:02 - ID#348257)
"Sagitaurius" - is that what we get when signs collide? Thanks for the smile.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:03 - ID#348257)
it's time to tag off buddy...why don't you have a go at this brutish lot. We have a wrestler for a Governor here noe, guv'nor. He won fair & square. Two falls out of three.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:04 - ID#225369)
According to the mouthpiece
of the World Gold Council on CNBC today the reason gold has not advanced in price any more than it has is because the producers keep selling into the rallies.He did not mention manipulation.He thought gold was range-bound at best.He did not even hint at manipulation.


These are the ground hog days of gold investing:Everytime gold peeks out above or near 300,the central banks smile and sing ,"I've got you babe."

Then,down it goes.


I'm going to the kitchen and put a little of that pineapple cream cheese on a Ritz cracker and top it off with a fresh smoked oyster.Good with cold beer.I'm gonna enjoy this day. And tommorrow,I'm gonna get better,and better,and better.......................................

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:08 - ID#413156)
It's Coming It's Coming !!
Minutes ago I was in contact with The American Federation of Astrologers and quickly faxed documentation to Mike Sheller regarding the cluster of asteroids arriving on November 17 .I also sent some smoke signals via Cherokee to Lgb to verify arrival factors. Still trying to contact Farfel but his wife says he is much to busy insulting the beautiful people at Kitco .If anyone finds F* tell him to close all windows, paddlock all doors, start the gas generator and pull out the guns because the mother of all asteroids is coming PARANIO-BLOPUCKER Remember November 17.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:09 - ID#187109)
Sheller & APH........thanks dudes...
My parents will be thanking you as well. They are fund players and will be very interested in the 'stuff' presented tonight. Dad reads kitco........he scrolls mostly until he hits the good stuff......whatever that is.............he scrolls over my crap too......oh well. hi dad.........actually, mom has the better track record.....I take after me mum ;- )

away.........for the eve


(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:11 - ID#293423)
Great minds
talk about ideas and small minds talk about other people.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:12 - ID#187109)
TO THE COUCH(davenport)....the big fluffy thing you attatch your butt to...

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:18 - ID#210114)
Thought for the day.
"The hardest part about our job is managing to perform in front of the camera, but with the introduction of Viagra, anyone can be a porn star."

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:18 - ID#320136)
@ Mike Sheller
Hafta say that ya got me rolling in the aisles
with a mouse in hand. I'm afraid if I stop laughing
so hard, and remember why it is I'm tuning in to
the Kitco Show tonight, I might start sobbing
in my gold stox.

You're a barrel of laffs, keep 'em coming!! :~ ) ) )


Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:19 - ID#348257)
very interesting post. I would maintain that there has not been any trace of "laissez-faire capitalism" in either Asia or Russia, and that this is most likely the true culprit. Given human foibles, only free markets untainted by omnipotent governments can discover values and price levels at anything near their "true" worth. The dislocations that lure capital to make "killings" are more and more the market anomalies created by governments and their inordinate power. Crony capitalism is but the tip of an iceberg of philosophical and fiscal corruption, all ostensibly in the name of "progress" and "the people," and yet all inevitably bound for the bottom of the same rat-hole.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:21 - ID#348257)
Bettern' a barrel o' skunks, ey guys?

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:22 - ID#413156)
Mike Sheller - yeah...uh...right

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:23 - ID#348257)
thanx for the tip. will mark my ephemeris. The AFA is a bunch of quacks!

Mike Sheller
(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:42 - ID#348257)
I can identify very strongly with your earlier post about dogs...and killing.
Raising a dog from a pup recently has put me in mind of how patient God must be with most of us. And we are nowhere near so trusting and unreservedly faithful and loving of our Master as a dog.

I was an avid fisherman as a youth, and hunted briefly too. Then I became sickened at watching an animal die for my "sport." Now I don't even fish, though I fantasize about it now and then. Yes, I grill steaks with the best of 'em, and I'm as much a hypocrite as most. But ultimately the real questions, and tests, of life are ethical, as you have observed. Yours was ( is ) a refreshing and warm voice of reason in a raucous ( yet jovial ) Kitco night ( day ) .

Good nite ( day ) all. Peace be upon us. We can do that for one another.

Not for those b*stards at Silicon Investor, but for us Kitcoites at least.






Oh the hell with it.

(Fri Nov 06 1998 23:52 - ID#237299)
Mike Sheller: Lighten up a wee bit.
It was a dual reponse; part for "save the whales Arby", and part for you and the beverly hillbilies remark. Two postings about skunks vs hundreds of the other non-gold nonsense is little to get upset about. I find your postings about astrology to better placed in a new age site- but I've never ragged about it.

Lets call a truce- and get back to the serious business that this sight was created for: a day in the life of F* and friends ;- )