Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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Greenstone Gold
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:00 - ID#428218)
Jim Bob.........

This may be of interest to you.......


Greenstone Gold
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:00 - ID#428218)
Jim Bob.........

This may be of interest to you.......


(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:00 - ID#370236)
@ JTF - I meant regarding the unmentionable. Sorry
Do you know what to do with a treed raccoon?

Chicken man
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:02 - ID#341297)
Tantulus @ Thinking along the same lines(bonds - not coon)
That's what I'm looking for Mon...the "all is well" type of rally...I'm looking for rally to 127.5 -128 thinking is the hedge funds shorted this market between 120 - 125 range...think of when the news came out..then look at the charts....lot of selling in this range...the the market took off to the!...hedge funds in trouble...IMHO..the major banks were mirroring the LTCM boys trade for they are probibly short in this price range too!!

I will bet my bottom dollar ( nobody bets with their last dollar! ) ...OK...but I'm still going to buy the lotto tickets....going back in short up to my eye balls...They gave me 24K Fri to play the game agian...he..he..snicker..snicker

With chicken lips a smiling...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:02 - ID#237299)
Yes, the pragmatic economy of having a villian. Remember that having the US as a villian serves Saddam equally well.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:03 - ID#386245)
Fellow goldbugs--you aren't going to like this!!!
I am gradually coming to the conclusion that we are ON THE PRECIPICE OF A MASSIVE DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE.

Think about these apples:

Your $500,000 house worth $100,000 or less ( IF there are any buyers ) .
Your shares ( DOW/S&P ) worth 10% of today's values.
Soup kitchens and work lines for the fortunate DEVELOPED countries.
National work schemes ala FDR's chain gangs.
Widespread civil disorder in 'less civilized' countries and perhaps even 'the home of the free'.

These dismal conclusions have been dawning on my inflated ego for some time. I have always considered that my family was warmly coccooned in our Aussie utopia. I can see it all coming to an end. I don't just mean Y2K. I'm not just talking about inflated share values, overpriced US bucks, inflated real estate. It is the confluence of all of these things. Excess can only be sustained for a finite time. We are living WAY BEYOND OUR MEANS!!!! It cannot go on indefinitely. It won't.

What brought this on???

Today I went to a 'SALE'. The vendors were selling Asian goods at @5-10% of the prices in the stores. I mean CHEAP!!!! Not the most fantastic quality, but useable, serviceable items for a tiny fraction of what they cost in 'normal' stores. Chinese, Indonesian, Indian, Taiwanese boxes out the back ( I had a peek to see from whenceth they originated ) .

I bought a set of chromium/vanadium tools of reasonably good quality for 10% of the 'normal' cost. Lots of other items of reasonable quality at ridiculous prices for our overstuffed, overfed and soon to go on a diet society.

There is a change going on here of radical proportions. The high and mighty are about to fall. Western consumers are about to come to terms with what is 'reality' for the majority of the world. YOU DON'T NEED ALL THE CRAP YOU'VE GOT. You ( and the world ) cannot afford it!!!

When the prices ABOVE are a fact of life, you will regret not having taken defensive actions earlier.

Get out of debt.
Sell shares.
Pay off real estate.
Learn to live on less.

I have a ten point check list on my bulletin board. I see it every day. It is not original. I copied it. If I can remember the author, I'll let you know.

1 ) Don't shop
2 ) Live within your means
3 ) Take care of what you have
4 ) Wear it out
5 ) Do it yourself
6 ) Anticipate your needs
7 ) Research value,quality,durability and multiple use
8 ) Get it for less
9 ) Buy used
10 ) Follow the steops of this program.

Now for the part you aren't going to like:
Under this scenario I can see the Price of Gold going down to $250 or even $200 or less.
Now for the good news:
EVERYTHING else will be 1/10th or less its former cost.
Gold will still be the BEST investment.
Cheers, Nick.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:04 - ID#43460)
Sad but true.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:04 - ID#247273)
In my youth, we kept raccoons as pets, and marvelled at how they would continually devise new escapes to our every security measure. They are indomitable, and survivors. We have here a ringtail that is similar to the raccoon, but, darn, he keeps getting hung up in the electrical wires, probably trying to get away from carrville.

all, I have been continually looking for mining shares that pay DIVIDENDS. What a concept! I have gotten to a point where I buy based on dividends. EDGUF has been good in that regard. At least you get some return. Too long have we treated equities like some prima donna grandchild, that we must not ask about return. Get real! No one or No company can survive without earnings, and if they have earnings, then why not dividends? Let's start taking the realistic view, where something must pay its own way! All investors need to start taking this view.
Diametrically opposed to the view that we are in for the long haul! How about: We're in for the short haul, then you show your worth!! by paying back some of our risk capital!!!!!!!!!

We all need to get real.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:04 - ID#350194)
@Tantalus and JTF
JTF - Are you really serious? "Saddam is not weak anymore..."????? Tantalus - I must differ. Saddam is a piece of manipulated DOG-MEAT. And yet I must agree... USA foreign policy is sick, demented and despised by practically every nation on earth INCLUDING her staunchest allies. Something has got to give, and it t'ain't World opinion folks.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:09 - ID#370236)
AZAU - I'm tooo dense. James Carville/ A treed raccoon
The raccoon will be gently re-introduced to his natural habitat.

Carville's will be terminated with extreme prejudice.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:09 - ID#35757)
This kind of deflation is politically impossibe. Politics trumps economics. IMHO

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:12 - ID#367411)
Oil & Gold & Y2K
I believe that Y2K is bullish for gold, but what about oil? If Y2K only causes a slowdown in economic activity, then it would seem that would pull oil demand down....put if it causes international "instability" it would seem that certain nations might want to stock up on oil to prepare for problems with supply routes.....

What if a significant portion of:

*Oil drilling facilities stop working
*Oil pipelines stop working
*Oil transportation infrastructure stops functioning

Since much less oil can be drilled and transported to market, the value ( both strategic & economic ) of available above ground oil would
skyrocket, would it not?

On the other hand, if the Y2K scenario is real, it would make sense for the market to start discounting it sometime in the middle of next year.....

Any thoughts on this issue?


Supposedly a significant percentage of the oil drilling, refining and transportation infrastructure may be subject to problems with embedded systems........but as to the reality one can only guess.....

This may just be hype, but FWIW this is what some have said about the oil industry & Y2K:

North Sea Platforms Shut Down ?
gSitting on a time bombh

ABERDEEN, Scotland ( Reuters ) 10/29/97 - David Trim of Shell's year 2000 team told the conference that a worldwide ''commercial meltdown'' and ''economic hardship'' were real risks if worst came to worst. We're talking about something akin to the aftermath of a war."

Companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell & British Petroleum said they realize they are sitting on a time bomb & are racing against the clock to check millions of microprocessors. They fear smaller firms have not yet fully grasped the threat to the oil industry.

The oil industry faces a gargantuan task to fight the millennium bug, illustrated by the fact a single offshore oil platform may contain more than 10,000 microprocessors. Some are deep below sea level, but all need to be checked. There are over a 100 platforms in the North Sea alone.>

British Petroleum, Shell & Exxon: Failures

Energy Industry Year 2000 Committee results discussed at November f97 meeting - 19 member companies.

North Sea Expro ( Shell-Exxon JV )
? Platform, Pipeline and Gas Plants
? 200 systems identified, 12% failure rate

BP Refinery, Grangemouth, UK
? 94 systems identified
? Couldn't find vendor for 20
? 74 assessed
? 3 will fail, 2 will cause shutdown

4%, 10%, 20% c Sometimes 50% Failure Rate

Manager of Texaco's Corporate Year 2000 office, Jay Abshier, had this to say: Gartner Group is estimating 2% ( 50MM out of 3B ) of embedded chips have Y2K problems.

Our experience at Texaco is the number is closer to 4% for our continuous flow systems ( refinery systems ) and much higher for discrete systems ( 10%, 20%, and some as high as 50% ) . The systems most likely to fail are Auxilliary Systems...not catastophic, but will affect plant operation.

Jay Abshier, Mgr - Corporate Y2K Office Texaco Inc, Bellaire, Texas

Expect to remediate LESS than 30%
of Overall Potential Failure Points
WORLD OIL - April 1998 Vol. 219 No. 4 – Go to "Feature Articles"

It is estimated that the average oil and gas firm, starting today, can expect to remediate LESS than 30% of the overall potential failure points in the production environment.

Methods for analyzing this equipment are only now emerging.
? Compliance info coming from manufacturers has been sketchy & sometimes inaccurate.
? In some cases, the chips are no longer made.
? In others, the controller is manufactured in such a way that entire unit must be replaced.
? Upgraded chips and new controllers also would have to be tested to ensure that their insertion will not impact drilling and production processes negatively.
? Some studies suggest that there may not be enough manufacturing capacity to just replace all affected chips in less than two years.

Few organizations have recognized the full potential for possible failure in embedded systems. Moreover, the supply of talent qualified to identify and correct these problems is being consumed quickly by other year 2000 projects. The longer that production managers wait, the less the likelihood that they will be able to affect the outcome pragmatically.

It is estimated that the average oil and gas firm, starting today, can expect to remediate less than 30% of the overall potential failure points in the production environment. This reality shifts the focus of the solution away from trying to fix the problem, to planning strategies that would minimize potential damage and mitigate potential safety hazards c

The recognition of issues surrounding EMBEDDED SYSTEMS is a relatively late entrant into the year 2000 discussion. Companies only now are becoming aware that the most likely threat to the revenue stream, environment and safety is more likely to come from an offshore platform or refinery, than from a mainframe accounting system.
New Problems in Oil Refineries

"But while the company was testing some of the equipment that controlled oil valves in its refineries, engineers inadvertently discovered a host of new problems. Thousands of terminals that control the ( dispensation ) of oil have old chips with a Year 2000 problem.

"The chips all need replacing - BUT the new chips won't fit on the old motherboards and the new motherboards don't fit the old valves. So all the valves have to be replaced too.h

gIf the company doesn't address all these problems, it soon won't be able to deliver oil to its customers." The beat goes on and on. One things leads to another. Secondary and tertiary effects unfold and nobody knows where they might lead.

Consider the implications of the oil company example extending throughout the economy and you'll have some idea of the unpredictability of the economic consequences of Y2K.

December 9, 1997 – Letter to Alan Greenspan

Super Tankers: 30% Failure Rate

Large Crude Carriers &
Fuel Storage Facilities at Overseas Airports

Just got off the phone with a contact at US Army Corps of Engineers. He was passing on to me a conversation he had had with an individual whose firm had done a Y2K study on behalf of Shell and other oil companies.

The findings: that there was a roughly 30% Y2K failure rate in the embedded control systems aboard very-large and super-large crude carriers ( VLCCs and SLVCs ) , the enormous and highly computerized oil tankers that ply the oceans.

There was also about the same failure rate in the embedded control systems found in fuel storage facilities at overseas airports.

Bruce F. Webster, CTO, Object Systems Group Member, Fannie Mae Year 2000 Team
Chair Pro Tem, Washington DC Year 2000 Group
SIM discussion board, Topic 11, 'Infrastructure Year 2000 Problems'

Supertankers may need to be dry-docked
for Y2K Fix

Letfs hope this isnft necessary. There are NOT enough dry-docks available, to fix all of the supertankers by January 2000. Currently being determined by shipbuilding engineers. If not dry-docked – cargo areas might need to be emptied for fix. Either way c not a good scenario.
Cheryl Kufta ( from a reliable source )

Stunned by Magnitude of Problem

A pretty frightening email I received regarding OIL INDUSTRY state-of-readiness on Year 2000 gembedded systemh problems.

Actual name of oil company changed to gMAJOR OIL COMPANYh at request of who sent this to me.
Cheryl Kufta

Cheryl – Greetings,

Got off the phone with Mr. XXXX from MAJOR OIL COMPANY today, and was stunned by the magnitude of the problem at that company alone.

MAJOR OIL COMPANY has 80 separate business entities, and managers within those entities, assigned to Y2K compliance issues. In 1996 MAJOR OIL COMPANY believed that the Y2K issue was an IT mainframe issue only.

It wasn't until this past August 1997 ( !!!!!! ) that the embedded system, PLC issues came to awareness. They now recognize that everything from manufacturing, refining, exploration, process control, blending, and delivery systems are affected by this.

To this end, they have identified to date - 26,000 separate components throughout the system, have assigned personnel to each component with the responsibility to determine through vendor contacts, testing etc. the compliance of each device. For this they have remained predominately in house with little external assistance.

They have triaged a critical list of highest medium and low criticality and have just dismissed the low items and will deal with them as they break. They also are identifying the interfaces with others that they depend upon for delivery of product, utility generation etc. and are working with these issues now.

An example given was the Texas Pipeline that comes out of their refinery in Texas and across the midwest.

They lease the pipeline as do other companies and sophisticated computer programs between the separate refineries and the pipeline owners track exact amounts of delivery throughout the midwest. This system then controls flow from different refineries to their destinations and the amounts in the system.

Any non-compliant interface between programs
regarding date, and between the software and PLCs in the pipeline,
would cause the line to shut down.

If not repaired within three days the
refinery would not be able to operate
due to lack of storage space for product.

The Natural gas pipeline to the Northeast is similar with different companies leasing the line for gas delivery. Customer expectation is gas for the winter heating needs.

As to oil rigs, they are setting up demonstration rigs here in the US to duplicate the structures on the platforms and hopefully assess compliance that way. With the rigs however, the outgoing pipelines that transport the crude to unloading stations, are also shared by various companies who have to coordinate their testing and shutdowns with MAJOR OIL COMPANY.

Mr. XXXX ended by stating, that this is NOT only an information problem.
gThis is a BUSINESS RISK PROBLEM with vast consequences for MAJOR OIL COMPANY's business relationships with customers and business viability for the company.h

He then said, what has been missed by most, is that over the past twenty years, all of our manual way of doing things in our infrastructure, has changed to computer software or PLC driven equipment.

And, that the problem is so pervasive that we don't even know where they are.

He listed, from his perspective, the major infrastructure needs threatened were electicity, natural gas, oil, other utilities, telephones and financial services.

He stated that the company was comfortable doing the assessment in-house.

He admitted that they did not have the manpower in-house to do the remediation, and that they would have to go outside for this help.

He was concerned about the escalating cost of this for his business, but especially for the small or medium business c and the lack of qualified personnel to perform all the work to be done.

WE departed, with the following reflection from Mr. XXXX:

"I discussed this issue with a consultant just yesterday, and he said the US and UK were doing a lousy job with this so far - but there were pockets of companies making great progress in the Y2K assessment and early remediation in embedded systems. As to the rest of the world, they can't even be categorized as doing a pathetic job since they for all purposes are doing NOTHING".

We plan to videotape our presentations, Cheryl, and Mr. XXXX & Mr. ZZZZ was willing to come from Houston and Chicago to speak here ( we have a local MAJOR OIL COMPANY small refinery here ) . I asked him if this went well, would he consider similar forums in Houston and other places, and he said yes. Maybe some other forum to think about out your way, and also to your contacts.

I have tried my damnedest to be level headed about this, as I have learned and organized this group.

As we embark on spreading the word about this problem I find myself more frightened than ever regarding the severity of the problem c moderately severe here in the US c but so devastating elsewhere. The iceberg analogy does nothing for this problem.

It is a monster of sorts, that I could never have dreamed about as a child. For up until the last two years, I never imagined such a hideous impact on our fabric of life.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:13 - ID#350194)
Deflation - Inflation - Stagflation - Reflation? Recession - Depression ETC.
You Forget, me man, the other side of the equation. The enormous debt that is behind the greenback. Yes we may have a massive recession. At he same time REAL money may take the place of the phoney. Next three years tells the tale. Place your bet folks. Hedging of bets IS allowed. Aurophile - Get back here and give us some comments. Reify, RJ, Sheller, Rhody, Front, Oldman? etc., Etc., ETC!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:19 - ID#373403)
I feel the same deflationary collapse sensations but see gold differently. The collapse will come concurrent with the collapse of the U.S. dollar which has been serving in golds place as the global hedge against uncertainty.

When the world falls, it will be because America falls. The dollar will not be the best hedge when the U.S Treasury is inflating the money supply. Todays Privateer seems to have nailed it pretty straight on.

My hatches are battened, debts paid off, sacks of gold in hand, and I am lashed to the mainsail......

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:20 - ID#350194)
Sorry All- Last comment was in response to Nick@C's 00:03!
Hi Nick. - whew - That was a close shave - ;- ) !

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:21 - ID#45173)
Great Depression timeline shows that deficit spending can pull a nation out of recession. Raises an interesting question: if deficit spending can pull a nation out a depression, then why hasn't deficit spending in Japan pulled them out of their depression? Japan deficit spending is now 120% of GDP and their economy continues to shrink.

Any ideas?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:22 - ID#370236)
Mooney - Namaste. & regards
But never posted anything here regarding Sadam. Don't get me started on him or I'll post bandwidth like THC's last and it won't be pretty.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:23 - ID#225369)
Thanks for indulging my wandering curiosity.You're probably right about the accounting rules regarding the increase in inventory and costs of goods sold.Non processed high grade ore,mined and stockpiled would be more easily concealed from an auditor.Surely no gold company does this.

Surely,they all have thought of it.

Contrary indicator
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:24 - ID#343185)
Two-dimensional political spectrum
It's not possible to position all existing political views on a "circular chart". If you don't believe me, figure out where to put the following: libertarian, anarchist, totalitarian, socialist, leftist, rightist, moderate, conservative, liberal. Visit for a more accurate way of depicting political positions.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:27 - ID#284255)
J Stack
On the technical front, we still can't say whether this is a classic bear
market trap or if the Federal Reserve has inadvertently plugged the pinhole
in the bubble. It is clear from the Vice Chairman's remarks this week that
the Fed did not intend to restore the mania on Wall Street. While breadth
and momentum are strong on this rally, we are not getting any readings of a
new bull market leg from our Negative Leadership Composite or from our
Bellwether Divergence Index. This rally, as of this week, has now triggered
all momentum models, that is moving averages, back into the market. That
means the next two weeks, when stocks try to stand on their own and the
falling bond market, could get real interesting.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:27 - ID#350145)
well thank you Mole
missed this guy somehow, this ludwig von mises. but, i like his thinking, what little i read. booked marked it and will order it. but my real point, lies not in any doctrine, but more on my lifelong observations of how people think. some people seem more inclined toward change than others. some of my best friends are conservative. i have no understanding of conservative thinking, myself however. it seems so clear to me that we must evolve, it is our manifest destiny. to seek understanding and the truth wherever it my lie. and i care not what that truth may be, just that it is. what i do know, is that the answers lie more in science and philosophy than in culture. the only dogma i know i possess is a belief in compassion as an axiom of the universe.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:27 - ID#386245)
Cap't Ahab
...errrrrrrrrrr...Missing Link. Is that a double eagle nailed to the masthead?? Queequeg and I were out on the rum and we forgot that we're supposed to be looking for white whales.
The deflationary collapse will take most by surprise, mate. Your DEBTS will soon be massive compared to your assets. Cash will be king and gold will be emperor!!!!!!!! Those with CASH will buy others assets for a song. Cheers, Nick Rockefeller.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:28 - ID#237299)
I have thought again on your question, and think you have inadvertantly hinted at an even more interesting one. When a mining company make a futures delivery contract, can all or portion of that unrealized income be counted as acruing in the calander year of the contract- vs the calander year of delivery. Might mining incomes be distorted in this way to *salt the profit statement" so to speak? A year with heavy expenses but poor production could be hidden by making income appear to to be greater than it is.

Someone here must know something of these rules- with so many mining share buffs on board.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:30 - ID#45173)
Repost: November Interest Rates Change Pol
Please vote on how you think Greenspan will effect rates in November.

So far with 28 votes we have 29% guessing that AG will lower rates, 68% that he will leave them unchanged and a lone hardcore contrarian voting that Greenspan will actually raise them.

Let's see if Kitco-ites are as good at predicting future rates as short-term changes in the price of gold.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:31 - ID#247273)
We can only hope that carville will be terminated along with the rest of his lot. you are not too dense. Racoons are infinitely preferable to the likes of carville. In my youth in Louisiana, carville was a Leper colony; no one to go there....


Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:33 - ID#344326)
@Bill in Oregon, Tolerant1, LGB, EB, and Greenstone Gold
Enjoyed meeting you together with my lady, Fred and his lovely wife, the gentle bear ( Kevan, a G&P to ya! ) , & our resident star-gazer Mike Sheller. Hoping you are well. As for the DOW, despite your opinion that it shall flourish well into 1999, I am of the opinion that tanking bonds, bills, and euros ( not to mention our fuzzy FRNs ) do not comprise a fertile ground for further growth in equities. Forgive me, Abby Joseph Cohen, for I have sinned; I am not a true believer. Too busy buying food, bottled distilled water, batteries, TP, and the occasional shiny golden coin.

To LGB, Bugal or whatever you are calling yourself these days, I have succumbed to your siren call and purchased the U.S. 1998 four coin Platinum Proof set, but only because I like the lighthouse, and I'm watching to see if ( hoping actually ) the seagull leaves a deposit on Clinton's head.

To EB, a thousand blessings on your head, may the Yen go your way, and I'm trying to help you with the Azucar ( stocking away sacks for Y2K )

To Greenstone Gold, do you know why Bill Clinton crossed the road? He heard the chicken was a good lay! Ach aye the noooooo!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:34 - ID#43460)
EJ, sure, I'll take a stab at it.
All this IMHO of course: Japan is the most racist, insular country on Earth, with citizens living under such conditions of overwork and crowding that few slaves in history would covet. After their failed expansion into China and the pan Pacific area of the 1930's and 1940's they had a nice expansion when they rebuilt their country. Now they have nothing more to buy and no more incentive to keep struggling. The next thing you'll see is an exodus into all the countries they tried to enslave 50 years ago, but this time it will be entrapreneurs, farmers and workers instead of soldiers.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:39 - ID#386245)
G'day Mooney
Hope your house is paid off, mate. Do you remember the 70's oil crunch in Texas. People were abandoning their million dollar houses in Houston etc. 'cause the mortgages were much bigger than the bubble prices they paid!!!! 100k down payment. Move in. Impress your friends. Only 900k to pay. EVERYONE knows you can't lose on real estate!!! House down to 900k. OOps!! Getting dicey. 750K best offer. Oh sh@$!!!

"Tell you what--I'll give you 400k and you leave the furniture!!!!!"

People were not just walking away from mortgages--they were RUNNING!!!!

Deflationary collapse. Not nice.

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:40 - ID#344326)
@ Azau
While you are looking for gold mines that pay generous dividends, why not consider SGOLY ( St Helena Gold Mines ) ADRs on NASDAQ. Mighty juicy dividend there, and been paying since the 50s. Regards, CB

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:40 - ID#370236)
@ Sharefin - The fifth dimension of man
That excellent poem ricocheting round my brain has lead me to the
conclusion that toooo many think they can manipulate the fourth without
actual participation.

Is that a politician? Hope not.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:41 - ID#24135)
.. The Estrogen factor ..
for ROR ..
You sense a watershed drift to the left .. not
Demo-rats did well because of higher than normal
voting by Blacks in South and by women .. join in the power shift .. try female hormone

for Mozel
I would also ban verb "to be" .. on grounds of
irregularity .. easily replaced by verb "is" ..
This movement spreading in my home state ...
as in "Ah is" .. "yo is".. "yo-all is"..

... Virginia .. always on the cutting edge.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:42 - ID#210282)
Mooney: If you refer to troops, I agree that Saddam is weaker that at the time of the Gulf war. But -- I am referring to weapons of mass destruction -- which he does have ( IMHO ) , and he does not need very much -- he just needs a delivery system. I think he does have some missles left -- or some smuggled in.

Saddam is crazy enough to lob something bad in the direction of Israel -- for the 'Arab cause' -- even if it is his last action. If Israel retaliates, it will be different this time unfortunately. Iraq may not be the isolated nation of the Desert Storm period.

None of our conventional weapons can really affect him -- even the 'bunker busters'. I think only nuclear would get his bunkers, and that is certainly out.

If we have any sense at all -- we Americans should be letting the local nations deal with Saddam. Or wait until the threat is acknowledged by all. If you are right that Saddam has no weapons of mass destruction, and we attack Iraq because Saddam is our convenient target, then we will polarize even more Arab public opinion against us. Almost as bad as my predicted outcome.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:42 - ID#225369)
Oh, I just hope it's true.The next thing to take my breath away would be that LTCM would declare itself a mining company for tax reasons. We really do live in strange times.That nothing surprises me ,surprises me.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:42 - ID#373403)
Fractional banking precludes reflation if
velocity drops. Maximum velocity of money in a banking system with a 10% reserve requirement turns $10 into about $80. This is what happens when hedge funds leveredge $3.6 billion into $100 by repledging collateral.

When events cause risk aversion as they are beginning to now, banks demand higher margins and borrowers are less likely to borrow on risky propositions. That same $80 may become $40 very quickly. Underlying assets are sold and collateral loses value. Loans were made on current valuations however with the past increases pocketed as profits to the traders. The collateral losses accrue to the traders until they hide behind bankruptcy laws and then the banks take the losses.

In this example, slowing velocity due to risk aversion causes the money supply to decline 50%. The central bank cannot hope to reflate the money supply by this much except by repurchasing treasuries, cutting interest rates, and hoping people don't hoard the money for fear about the future.

The current high level of velocity through fractional banking will preclude the Fed and Treasury from reflating from this credit collapse. Japan is proof. If we really had the ability to alter events as easily as printing money, don't you think Japan would be intelligent enough to figure this out? If they were not smart enough, don't you think Greenspan and Rubin would have clued them in by now?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:45 - ID#284255)
Gold Polls
Since the one I installed yesterday has been so popular.
I have created a new poll.

What will be the POG on the last day of 1999???

And I have placed it just under the other poll on my webpage.

This one should be interesting.
But we have a long time to wait.^o-o^

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:46 - ID#35757)
EJ (re: Japan)
Deficit spending works when there is little debt. Buy now, pay later can stimulate a slugish economy. You borrow when you are at the end of your rope to buy ( with savings ) . What do you do when you are at the end of your rope to borrow?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:49 - ID#247273)
Crystal Ball
Thanks, pard, for the tip, I shall consider your wise counsel.
Always looking for a REAL investment. this will be the way of all stocks in the near future, imho. SCAMS will be very challenged, including WJC.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:53 - ID#373403)
Better to use the cash with the drowning man or the bank after foreclosure?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:56 - ID#350194)
Apologies all 'round! My head is spinning tonight and must have put some of the comas in de wrong place! Did dat Tar Baby cross my path?
Goodnight Glenn, wherever you might be. ) Movin's ooout of n'Yark in de next six mundths? Gold $315 by Dec. 30th. Silver $5.55 - 5.75. Just havin's sum funs. Goodnight Gracie.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:59 - ID#370236)
@ Sharefin - I'd rather believe that we can control our own destinies.
But who are all of these OTHER entities here in the 5th.

There must surely be a 6th. For Goldbugs, yes.
See you there.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 00:59 - ID#225369)
The Missing Link
What concerns me about the fractional banking fiascos is not what actually has happened,but what the manipulators have learned or think they have learned from it.What they will do with this later on.

I am afraid they have only just discovered uranium.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:03 - ID#65118)
@JTF. Saddam Nuke's and Chem/Bio toys.
Just substitute a suitcase 10 kiloton for explosives in a car bomb and
instead of killing a few people, he kills a few hundred thousand.

This is my biggest fear. He does not need a delivery system. Just a
delivery boy. You no longer need to be a member of the Trinity team,
just be able to round up some weapons grade plutonium ( sp? ) and the rest is really academic. Then, supposidly there is this red mecury stuff which
enhances yield and adds more intense radation.

This could be in NY., Isreal, anywhere!

Sends chills down my spine!

This would shake things up more than we could imagine.

We are way to vulnirable and believe this can't happen. Yikes!

Best Regards, O.L.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:05 - ID#386245)
Re:your gold poll:

Where do I vote for $30,000 +?????
Cheers, optimistnick

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:05 - ID#35757)
A late night (here at least) question
What does devaluation mean?
What exactly happens when a country devaluates its currancy?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:17 - ID#370236)
Chicken Man @ 00:00:2
I'm only sure that chickens have no lips/yips. Good to have a Bond Mon


(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:18 - ID#386245)
Deflation is a lessening in the amount of money in circulation. A good example would be Russia taking a couple of zeros off the value of the ruble...errr...rubble. If there is less money in circulation, then the price of everything else goes DOWN, often dramatically!!!! A 'million $$ house' for 100k an example.

You don't want to OWE money in a deflation, because it is much more expensive money to repay. Your options are to pay it off with more expensive dollars, or to walk away from the debt ( declare bankruptcy etc. ) Pay off your debts!!! be conservative!!! Buy gold!!! GOLD???Conservative??? Time will tell!!!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:25 - ID#370236)
@ Mooney - apologies not required. Keep the info comin'

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:27 - ID#25490)

Glad to see you're seeing the deflation over the ditch. Medain House prices this side decreased by 3.2% last quarter, add 0.3% inflation, we got over 12% slide in house prices in 12 months.

We are seeing a typical deflationary spiral in price of 2nhand cars, which, for the first time I know, are cheaper in NZ cf Aus. 'Corse we're getting tonnes of 2nd hand Jap cars with odometers wound back dumped on us too.

Don't buy nothing you don't need.

Grok your Salty experience, yes indoody. BTW desalination ponds on E Coast of the S Island that supply most of NZ's salt needs have had a record year. El nina made the W Coast Wet and the E Coast dry.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:31 - ID#350145)
contrary indicator - political spectrum
my dichotomizing was meant broadly, as a phenomonen and clumsy attempt at organizing. i think the fact that there are two party systems in most western nations is not luck. three party systems always fail. the people naturally divide themselves into right and left. those other types you mention: libertarians are confused republicans and almost always vote with them when they achieve office. anarchists are sloppy thinkers. totalitarians are sociopaths and socialists depends on the type. i would argue that sweden is the most advanced nation on earth, and it is a socialist democracy. i lean towards a compassionate capitalist democracy, but i would maintain we are still early in our evolution, so who knows what the right mix is of political and social systems.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 01:58 - ID#219363)
Devaluation just means the country in question wants to decrease the value of it's currency against other world currencies ( usually to get rid of account deficits or surpluses ) . If they have a fixed exchange rate, say, 1 peso to the dollar, then they just change it, 10 pesos to the dollar and that's the end of it. Countries with floating currencies instead of fixed ones have basically agreed through policy to support their currency within a trading band ( using various strategies from the currency tool box ) , and when they devalue, they just decide and announce that they're going to support it within a lower trading band to other currencies. Actually, my understanding is that on a floating currency the word devaluation isn't the correct word, it's depreciate. So anyway, when a country devalues, they just decide to do it. Governments decide to do it based on market factors that make it easier or harder for them to support their currencies at specified values, it isn't really a matter of whim, to some extent it is forced on them as the price of stability in the currencies value goes up and up.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 02:10 - ID#284255)
I just have to agree with your earlier comments.
The times are a changing.

The only thing that I could disagree on was the POG.

Be it that ming comes across a real slowdown/shutdown
The the supply/demand situation would call for higher prices.

As to houses going down 50% plus.
Coming soon to a town near you.

George Sat Nov 07 1998 16:05
Couldn't agree with you more.

Same with medicine.
I have a close friend who is an orthopedic surgeon.
Top of the class and working at the cutting edge.

Having a few scotch's gets the talk going.
His comments:
1 ) From studies done on Australian hospitals.
90% of patients admitted in house, are dead within 2 years.

2 ) They could shut down all hospitals today and life expectancy would not decrease.
Mortality rates would not increase.

3 ) Hospitals is a growth money industry.

So stick to your herbs and give the quacks the flick.

Gold Dancer
What I perceive from the article is that big brother just wants more control.
Using the words 'drugs' is just a entry to control.

Mike Sheller
If Y2k is just going to be a bump in the road.

Why are the most advanced countries in the world,
Who are the most advanced in remediation,
Actively discussing military control of the mases?

Something fishy I think.???

Of course the D&G crowd hype up the issue.

But what of the quiet programmers who reside here on Kitco?
Saying little of their thoughts.

I find it quite interesting that there is a bunch of geeks, residing on a goldbug forum.
They've been hanging out at these hallowed halls for a long time and no one even knew that they were geeks.

They said little on the subject, even though they were the ones with knowledge.
These people are the quiet ones,
The ones who say little and don't hype the issue
And are working hard on remediation
And at home they have been preparing.

They have a far greater perspective than most.
And they have been quiet up untill late.
Now the issue has been stirred up they have become more vocal.

Perhaps they are worth listening to?
I know I respect their opinions.

This one is a very good article.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 02:20 - ID#219363)
Example of devaluation: In the stock market companies sometimes devalue their shares, thus screwing over the share holders in the public markets. One way they could do that is to create more shares ( inflate the number of shares ) , thus effectively devaluing outstanding shares held in the markets. They don't do this of course, instead they "split" the stocks so as to not decrease the amount of value held by current share holders. But there are other things they do to decrease value on outstanding shares, and one of those things is to do what a lot of companies have done lately, revalue options. In this example, a company has a million shares outstanding in the market, and executives in the company have a bunch of options on those shares. Well, the company, if the market price of the stock drops, can revalue the strikes on the options, thus effectively devaluing the outstanding stock and maintaining the value for executives in the company. Anyway, that's what I mean when I was saying that countries hold the value of their currencies at various levels, it just means they take the steps necessary to sustain the "effective value" of the currency. There are all kinds of things they can do to lower the effective value of the currency once they've decided to do it.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 02:38 - ID#284255)
Just been discussing the 6th and 7th levels with Dad.
And beyond these horizons???

We can only fixate on what we see behind.
Who is to know what lies ahead.

As Nick@C pointed out.
Is their a 6th level for the POG???

(Sun Nov 08 1998 02:49 - ID#284255)
Satellites under threat from meteor storm

Sydney Observatory's curator, Dr Nick Lomb, said the storm's peak was expected between 6 and 7.30am, when it will be daylight in Sydney. However NSW residents might glimpse the start of the show by rising before 4.30am and looking north-east.

"The best view will be from around Japan and Taiwan."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 02:51 - ID#316193)
John Dizard - Now That the Correction is Around the Corner, It's Time to Sell
"We'll likely have another cut in the targeted fed funds rate
at the November meeting. Europe, Britain, and the Asian
contagion countries are preparing to cut government controlled
rates where they haven't already.

They're all reading from old handbooks about how to stop
depressions, and that's giving the equity markets the idea
that Santa Claus will keep coming to town."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:21 - ID#386245)
Y2K induced defationary depression??
"...if there's a deflation, it probably won't be caused by the Federal Reserve swearing off the printing of money. Instead, it would be triggered by a sudden change upward in the demand for money--making the economy feel cash-poor and creating deflationary pressure as great as though the supply of money had suddenly fallen." Harry Browne 'Inflation-Proofing your Investments', William Morrow & Co., 1981.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:28 - ID#284255)
More Gartner Crapola

FLASH! The New Gartner Meteorology Group predicts MASSIVE blizzards to result in up to a half inch of snow.

Tough Techs ( Barron's cover story ) 
Tough Techs
Our experts find winning stocks in the year's wreckage

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:33 - ID#210114)
Open Letter to the IMF

"Don't inflict your failure upon us."

Dear Mr Camdessus and IMF,

I read with great consternation and astonishment that you had recommended to the Australian government that it should adopt US style labour markets.

As an Australian I am appalled by the suggestion.

Firstly, why should ordinary people forgo their wages and conditions just so business and the wealthy can benefit?? It is hypocritical for people such as yourselves on 6 or 7 figure incomes to advocate wage cuts. Why aren't CEOs also expected to accept income reductions?

Secondly, wages cuts don't work. Its a false argument. Cutting wages cuts demand in the economy, which cuts employment.

Thirdly, cutting wages does not guarantee more job vacancies. A lot of businesses will add those cuts to the bottom line profit margin and say 'thank you very much'.

Finally, wages were cut in response to the 1930 Depression. It did not restore full employment. It was a miserable failure. The only time this century that we had full employment was when the economy was being run on Keynesian principles; not laissez faire. But this concept runs against the current economic mantra.

The free-market ideology which you are constantly advocating has not worked. It has not delivered. The ordinary mass of people are either unemployed, or in fear of being unemployed. But the elites have done very well thank you very much.

I do not want a US society in Australia. High poverty in the richest country in the world. 40 million Americans without health care. Highest rate of violent crime in the western world. Oh yes, and what would be the US unemployment rate if the million or so US citizens in jail were actually out there looking for work??

The IMF seems to think it has all the answers to the world's problems. These answers are always free market. Like religious zealots you advocate pain and misery now for an economic Nirvana in the future.

We have had 20 years of free market economics. Nirvana is nowhere to be seen. Your free market ideology has been a failure.

By your own admission, you made a disasterous situation in South East Asia last year catastrophic.

Don't inflict your failure upon us. Each country has to find its own version of capitalism which works best for it. Each country has its own economic, political and cultural differences and traditions. The radical free market was inflicted upon Russia, totally disregarding its traditions and now you have another basket case on your hands.

May you come to terms with a world that does not conform to your mythical free market model.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:33 - ID#25490)
"There is no depression in New Zealand. There are no sheep on our farms"..(The Chills..c 1988))-----
When people decide that puttin-off a buying decision is economically rational, because the goods will be cheaper tomorrow, and watch for increasing stock inventories, especially cars, computers, and their components, whiteware, brownware and building materials.....

The name of the game becomes "beggar thy neighbour" as nations compete to off-load excess our cheap Japanese second hand cars..

A bargain commercial property ( "blue-chip" tenant ) starts to look like a dog, and falls empty. In one of our provincial towns I heard an estimate that over 60% of commercial property is vacant.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:36 - ID#210114)
Say your deflation post. A bit pessimistic but I agree with yoiur point that we don't need all the materialistic rubbish that we have.

Oh yeah, to keep Bart happy, I think gold will be below $US 300 for the next 6 months at least.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:46 - ID#386245)
G'day. After seeing brand new 'goods' go for 10 cents on the dollar, I am forever spoiled and do not consider buying 'new' ( expensive ) goods for full price. This will spread like staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ( Bart--see the gold reference there, mate ) .

I am now convinced that we are in the beginning stages of deflation. Like a runaway train, it shall gather speed. People will be caught with consumer debt, useless consumables and a dwindling cash balance.

When the 'crunch' comes, the gubbmint will hyperinflate to redress ( alas, all too late ) .

Get OUT of debt.
Buy REAL assets.

Goldbugs shall inherit the earth.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:52 - ID#284255)
They must print more.
Nick there isn't enough out there.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 03:56 - ID#25490)
Deflation---"Who pricked my balloon?"---
One of the hardest disciplines to learn, because of e no real experience of it when times are good and the dollars are rolling in, is to defer purchases. Especially when so many goods are offered on "nothing down, nothing to pay for six months" credit. The trap is set...the bait is laid along the trail...and, right on time, the hunted will be seen on the horizon, heading this way...

easy credit....consume now, pay later..


(Sun Nov 08 1998 04:01 - ID#386245)
G'day finnie
Hope the tropical mansion sells before the jungle consumes it.

G'nite Auradeflator.
"Sheep 1, sheep 2, sheep 3, hello darling, sheep 5 ......"

(Sun Nov 08 1998 04:02 - ID#284255)
They must print more.
Nick there isn't enough out there.

And if they can't print enough money and mine enough gold.
There just won't be enough to go around.
Especially if they lose their cyber cash.

It's like betting all at the racecourse.
You come home smiling.
Or you've lost the race.

You either get it of you lose it all.

That's why the banking/finance sector is way ahead on remediation.
Trouble is they care little for the supply system.
Their thoughts are based on profits not survival.

They Don't Get It

"It is clear that there is considerable frustration at the way governments are either doing too little, or simply the wrong things about year 2000 because, frankly - they just don't get it."

The Paperchase Revisited
OECD - Report Published

John Glenn
A safe landing.
What a stimuli for the US masses?
How many Dow points will this be worth?

& the beat goes on......^o-o^

(Sun Nov 08 1998 04:17 - ID#386245)
Sharefin-- Any who ignore this, do so at their peril.
Finnie--that chart you just posted should be read by all. Exactly what I have been saying ( and fear ) about Y2K deflation scenario. Scary stuff, mate!!!
"This chart shows why Y2K might cause a worldwide bank run crisis if the general public becomes frightened about the shortage of cash reserves ( lets hope this doesn't happen, it would have serious long-term consequences... )

Total $ in circulation is the total cash ( green paper dollars ) in circulation around the world. Approximately 1/3 of this is in circulation in the United States according to Federal Reserve estimates. The amount is $480 billion.

Deposit obligations is the total dollar amount that U.S. banks owe to depositors. This is the amount people "think" they have safely saved in their checking and savings accounts. The amount is $3.7 trillion.

Actual cash reserves is the amount that U.S. banks actually have on hand as cash. The actual figure is $43.2 billion.

What it all means: First, look at the difference between actual cash reserves and deposit obligations. The ratio is 1.17%. That means for every $100 you think you have in the bank, that bank, on average, actually has only one dollar and seventeen cents. You can see from the chart that actual cash reserves would have to increase by a factor of almost 100 in order to meet the deposit obligations.

Furthermore, the total $ in circulation, which is indirectly controlled by the Fed, isn't even enough to meet the deposit obligations. From this comparison, you can also see that even though the Fed is promising to put an additional $200 billion into circulation between now and 2000, that's hardly a blip on this chart.

The only thing that can save this system from collapse is if the public maintains confidence in the system and does not withdraw funds. Fractional reserve banking is, by definition, unable to meet the deposit obligations of all depositors simultaneously. The reason Y2K has the Fed rightfully frightened is that Y2K hits everybody at the same time. While on any normal day, only a certain minority of people are suffering some kind of financial crisis and need their cash; on January 1, 2000, almost everyone will want some extra cash."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 04:26 - ID#386245)
From your 2nd URL.
The FDIC can tell you they will cover all deposits, but in fact they can only cover 1.25% ( or right now, 1.4% because reserve ratios are running high ) . The FDIC can promise they will cover all deposits, but in fact they can only cover 1.25%. The FDIC can swear they will cover all deposits, but in fact they can only cover 1.25%. Getting the picture here? They can say anything they want, and they can mislead the American people by spreading false information, but when it comes down to actually writing the checks, the FDIC only has the funds to cover 1.25% of total deposits.

Why the FDIC never mentions their own reserve figures
You'll notice that public statements by the FDIC never include their own reserve figures. In fact, you have to dig through their research and talk with rude telephone operators at the FDIC consumer hotline ( 800-934-3342 ) just to find the numbers. Why? Because the numbers are a shock. We are facing the most urgent crisis our banking system has ever faced, and the FDIC is ready to cover 1.25% of your deposits. But don't worry, this is on top of the 1.17% the banks actually have on hand as cash. So if things get really bad, the combined power of all U.S. banks and the FDIC can come up with a whole two dollars and forty-two cents for every $100 you have deposited. Is this comforting?

Why would the banks fail?
System-wide, the banks hold one dollar and seventeen cents for every $100 you deposit. That means if a bank withdrawal panic ensued, the first 1.17% of depositors who ask for their money will get theirs. The rest? Out of luck. The cash is gone. You get to apply to the FDIC which can then cover another 1.25% of deposits. This means that 97.5% of all depositors will lose their deposits for good. View the bank reserves chart and see for yourself.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 04:41 - ID#257312)
A Question

Could the Fed just print up a bunch of say, $10,000 and $25,000 bills and distribute them to banks? Print enough so each bank could cover their depositors? What effects would that have with regard to deflation/inflation, POG, etc.?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 05:08 - ID#386245)
G'day Auric
Printing $10,000 and $25,000 bills would, IMO, be the equivalant of dropping two decimals off the value of the currency. Where would all this money be 'spent'?? More money than goods=hyperinflation. The gov't, in a knee-jerk reaction will hyperinflate when a deflation hits.

Buy yourself an extra wheelbarrow ( to carry your money ) , for when you go to buy the morning paper and orange juice.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 05:33 - ID#257312)
Nick @ 250C's

The idea would be to persuade people to leave their paper money in the bank. In effect, the Fed would be converting "virtual" money to paper money. They could conceivably print enough milion dollar bills to cover present GDP, if they wanted. Your point is well taken, though. The result would be a huge loss of confidence in paper money. Got Gold?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:11 - ID#284255)
You mean there's no gold in Ft Knox???

This is atrocious!!!!! ^o-o^

(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:22 - ID#153110)
Where is Virginia ? In the New Constitution of the 1970's, the boundaries of thhe state are not defined. It is this way in almost all, if not all, American state Constitutions today. One of the three requirements for a state in international law is territory. I think Virginia has gone the way of the dodo bird.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:24 - ID#284255)
Gold lease rates

The lower 4 plots are 1, 3, 6 & 12 month Lease rates.

I only have the data going back a couple of years.
So it seams hard to draw conclusions.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:35 - ID#24135)
Bluebelly scoundruls ..
Well Gen'ral Mozel ..
Ah dont rightly know EXACTLY where Virginia is .. but
Ah know ABOUT where it is ... and Ah do NOT like to
heah that them pesky yankee no goods have been
messin with the Bordahs agin ..

(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:44 - ID#233199)
I wasn't surprised to learn Ft. Knox is empty, but...
I was surprised to learn it's Maine...

...look it up...

it's for real.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 06:58 - ID#153110)
It was the scallywags that done the most mischief, as you might suspect, suh. Most especially the ones livin' on New Yawk greenbacks.

On another topic, it looks to me as if Euro and greenback are being harmonized for a footrace. I would wager against the Euro runners since they all have two left feet were it not that POG in Euros is in their plan. Gold is a monetary asset in the Euro plan, but not in the IMF plan. I think harmonizing IMF rules on monetary use of gold is the reform the Germans and French keep talking about. Once Gold is an official monetary instrument again, all talk of CB sales will end, will it not ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:10 - ID#153110)
@The Bordahs of Virginny
Speaking for myself, the bordahs of Virginny is a matter of some interest as the Commonwealth of Virginia was where the rumor of warrant out originated.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:19 - ID#153110)
But, if there no such a place as Virginny, that place being now undefined in the state Constitution, what is the US Representatives and Senators from Virginny representing ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:27 - ID#284255)
Polls are polls.

An opportunist bunch.
Yes sir.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:29 - ID#284255)
Email chatter - got gold????
19981107 -- "Psychological ( Y2K ) Warfare" ( declared ) by GartnerGroup


"Psychological ( Y2K ) Warfare" has been declared on populations of the
globe with the Gartner Report, "Y2K Too Shall Pass" => = ( see snip below ) .

Until this fateful report, I had considered GartnerGroup one of the more
esteemed Year 2000 ( IT business ) research organizations. The big guns
( GartnerGroup, ITAA, et al ) are being called out to quash ( well
articulated and researched ) Y2K-related information they've ( justifiably )
disseminated in recent years through excellent research and testimony.

In spite of the pretty graphs = = and
highbrow ( ever increasingly politicized ) verbiage, the realm of
intellectual ( and psychological ) denial has finally been breached by the
Y2K behemoths.

The realities and vulnerability of the "fragile infrastructure" to a total
( network ) collapse from a success level of only 90% ( Y2K remediation )
by societies at-large, has enormous consequence to TWAWKI ( The World As We
Know It ) . These are ( clumsy ) treading into dangerous waters!

Describing bank runs and long-term preparations as the worst things that
could happen in the face of "devastated" economies, is less than
disingenuous. I consider it morally bankrupt and evil!

GartnerGroup's "Hurricane" analogy is way out of the base lines. There is
no evidence ( status reporting is not the doing! ) that the Year 2000
Techno-Ambush won't be universal and catastrophic ( for computer-based
societies ) in scope and effect for a large portion of the population on
the planet. Neutron bomb is a realistic analogy. Yes! People are going
to perish! Buildings and edifices will remain standing, however, as (
uninhabitable ) monuments to the Year 2000 Techno-Ambush.

For crying out loud! It is reality that military and policing forces
around the world ( Canada and Britain! ) are quaking in their boots (
literally ) , preparing ( pro-actively ) for prospects of massive civil
unrest and chaos leading up to the Year 2000, and thereafter.

GartnerGroup is incorrect with the proclamation that Year 2000 disruptions
are "not the end of the world." The disruption of the global
infrastructure will, indeed, be the end of the world _as we know it today_.
It will be a relatively instantaneous, population hurling-event into a
retro-lifestyles of the mid-19th century, adversely affecting more than
half the population on our planet.

Who are these plebian, grossly in-denial, wannabe "psychologists" trying to
kid ( or appease ) ? GartnerGroup ( and their ilk ) have, forthwith, lost
any useful purpose and credibility! They have become Y2K-ill-fated
corporate lackeys and purveyors of corporate snake oil, groping to protect
their own ( ill-fated ) assets.

It's time for individuals of the world to take Year 2000-matters and rat
ional preparations into their own, capable, soon-to-be low-tech hands. The
consequences of not doing so, are much too grave to be left to the whims
and mercy of denial-blinded corporations and governments.

. Do not bother to ask for, or trust in, Y2K "status reports ( fiction ) ."

. Do prepare for global infrastructure disruptions, of indeterminable duration.

. Do seize public officials with demands to mobilize and utilize every
possible ( especially local ) public human and material resources toward
Year 2000 calamity preparations, on a worst case scenario basis --

Time is the premium and primary commodity. It is time to re-educate
affected populations to the "rigors" of doing without ( substituting ...
{with} ) :

. Water ( with collection/rudimentary purification )
. Food ( mass ) production/distribution ( with sharecropping/canning )
. Heat [ natural gas ( NG ) /electric distribution ] ( with safe coal/wood
methods )
. Sanitation ( with rudimentary/disease-mitigating methods )
. Clothing ( with handmade sackcloth and hair shirts )
. National Defense ( with "Minute Man" militia )
. Medication/Medical/Dental technologies ( with herbs/first aid/ugh! )
. Currency ( with metals/bartering )
. National Defense ( with "Minute Man" militia )
. Communications ( with Pony Express/"The Postman" )
. Mass transportation ( with equestrian/steam )
. Police ( with Neighborhood Watches/Self-defense )
. Courts ( with local Justices of the Peace )
. Schools ( with local teachers, teaching the basic R's in existing
facilities )
. Work ( with handcrafts/harvesting ... where possible, continued Y2K
remediation! )
. Entertainment ( with local live theater and community social functions )
. Pets ( with guard dogs/livestock )

Heeding Year 2000 psycho-babble from sophomoric, ill-fated institutions in
societies, will lead down folly lane. It's the networks! They're broken
and can't be fixed in time. Do what you and your loved ones must, and are
able, before it's too late to be too late.

There won't be any help from the general media on the Year 2000 issues,
either.. They are bought and paid lackeys of corporate masters with vested
interests in jeopardy -- regardless of what the Year 2000 meltdown outcome.
Only courageous individuals and small ( some Internet-based ) news sources
will be allowed to provide real information -- trust, but verify.

Oh yes! Keep your eyes on the money and leaders ( public and private ) for
the only you will need to heed during and after the Year 2000 meltdown.


Robert Mangus

"I'm a computer 'Y2K-bomb' technician. If you see me running, try to keep
up." RMangus

"Sometimes a majority simply means that all of the fools are of one mind."
[Author Unknown]

Year 2000 Citizen Action Group [Y2KCAG]
( Oakland County, Michigan - USA )
Pager: 810.912.8729 * A Volunteer Year 2000 Public Awareness Org. *
Open to preparedness items and ideas for general distribution!
To subscribe: Subject: Y2KCAG subscribe PUBLIC or PRIVATE
To unsubscribe: Subject: Y2KCAG unsubscribe
Keep informed about and prepare for the "Year 2000 Techno-Ambush":
Visit: Cassandra Project: =
Gary North: =
Sharefin's Gold Homepage:

=Snipped from: ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook, November 6, 1998, Volume 3, No.
41. Published by the Information Technology Association of America,
Arlington, VA. Bob Cohen, Editor = = =
Gartner Report: Y2K Too Shall Pass

The GartnerGroup is gunning for Mad Max. Or at least the world-gone-mad
mentality this movie brings to mind. Clearly distressed by Y2K "gloom and
doom" sayers and the extreme measures some advocate in response, the
company is now trying to pour oil on troubled millennial waters. Or as one
of its leading consultants says, "pour oil on the hysteria."

And perhaps rid the world of a little snakeoil in the process?

The GartnerGroup is known more for its consulting work with private clients
than missionary work with average citizens. But the company recently
released a public report intended to help just plain folks cope with the
stress of a digitally dysfunctional world.

The report is certainly designed to help cooler heads prevail. While
survivalists may urge mountain retreats or mounds of freeze dried edibles,
the Gartner Group seemingly predicts that the Year 2000 rollover will be a
few days spent with relatively minor techno troubles. Troubles more of
"gol dang it" than Gotterdammerung variety. And certainly not modern
society's one-way ticket ride to Cyberia.

At least that's certainly the way one of the report's authors sees it. "We
don't need a run on the banks due to hysteria and panic," says GartnerGroup
Vice President and Director of Research Jim Cassell. The analyst says his
firm is working with the American Banking Association to head off such a
possibility. He says the ABA is very concerned about people needlessly
withdrawing large sums in the run up to the rollover. The collective
cashing of one month's paycheck, Cassell says, would empty the national
till. "There is not enough physical money," he says.

"Withdrawing funds from banks or liquidating investments is not
warranted?GartnerGroup assumes most enterprises will address
mission-critical systems so that 90 percent of the systems that do fail
will be corrected within three days," the new report notes. Seventy
percent will be back in two days, it predicts.

Cassell compares the situation to a hurricane. Pay attention, be prepared,
but do not be blown away by fear and doubt. A stampede to the boonies
isn't on Gartner's to-do list either. Citing the "incredible hysteria" he
hears, Cassell encourages people to look at the situation in perspective
and separate panic from practicality. Cassell says he lives in Florida,
where the "worst day is 60 degrees. I'm not worried about buying a space
heater," he says.

So what is a person to do to prepare for a few days of technologically
stormy weather? Cassell suggests that like his Florida example, physical
location will go a long way to determining what steps are necessary. Some
moves, however, seem universal. Cassell says having the equivalent of
two-weeks salary on hand is not a bad idea. And a five-day contingency
supply of medications, fuel and food are good too.

"Individuals should prepare for limited duration, localized failures of
services and infrastructure rather than an apocalypse," the report states,
but warns, "The type and number of failures will vary geographically and
cannot really be predicted."

On the GartnerGroup's Personal Year 2000 Risk Assessment checklist are
insurance policy reviews, prescription refills, physical and dental
checkups, first-aid supplies, cellular phone backups, topped off gasoline
and home heating oil tanks, early driver's license renewals, and stocked
water. "The most critical factors for most people are clearly the
availability of telephone service and electric power," the report notes,
citing the vulnerability of automated teller machines, emergency services,
credit cards, electronic funds transfer and the like.

Gartner's optimistic view is not necessarily global. "In many cases there
is no effective way for a non-U.S. person to meaningfully assess the risk
posed by such things as infrastructure and financial services," the report
observes. "Few countries have as rigorous reporting requirements as the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) , and individuals have no
leverage on enterprises such as insurance and utility companies. Such
enterprises generally do not provide specific responses to individuals."
Listen to whatever public pronouncements are available, then take a
conservative position, the report suggests.

Back in the U.S., Cassell says institutions like the SEC and the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation will help people weather the storm. But it
won't be the kind of storm that floods cities or blows down buildings.
"You may not get [some] products or services for five days. It will be
inconvenient, disruptive, but it's not the end of the world," he notes.

At least not for individuals. Companies, according to Cassell, could be a
different story. Some of these, he says, will be "devastated" by lawsuits
and other problems. Of course the economic consequences of such impacts
could mean more than a blinking VCR to many American households. But even
a lost job or depressed stock price isn't the end of times.

So put away the sackcloth and hair shirts for now. Instead, prepare for
the purely practical. Like checking that investment companies are
providing adequate status information. That insurance policies cover date
related physical damage. That health concerns are tended to ahead of time.
And that neighbors are covered too.

"People should not ask 'How can I survive the century boundary?' They
should ask 'How can my neighborhood and I survive the century boundary?'
People should volunteer to help the elderly or sick, and should also
volunteer their services to their local, city or town governments," the
report advises.

The free report is available at

The report is actually located here: = =
# # #

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:34 - ID#254112)
In Euroland,
there is an interesting battle going on between leftist politicians and central bankers. The politicians want lower interest rates, the central bankers want to keep the 3.3% level which they have right now in France and Germany and other countries with higher interest rates to adjust to this level.

The "independence" of the ECB would become a farce if the central abnkers would lose this battle. The Euro would become a still birth.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:37 - ID#348257)
Highhopes - my answer to a fair Kwestion
Date: Sat Nov 07 1998 21:38
Highhopes ( Mike Sheller and your stock recommendations. ) ID#404410:
Could you please elaborate on your specific stock recommendations, when you make
them. If I merely said that I recommended ABC stock, you'd want to know why, wouldn't
you? I like to have some idea why one recommends a security. Thanks!

Fair Question, High. I am interested in XSYS because it will be receiving a Uranus conjunction to its Jupiter in the next 3 months. I like OPEN as well because Uranus will be conjuncting its Venus/Jupiter conjunction, while Pluto conjuncts its Neptune. This all takes place over the winter. These are all "once in a lifetime" configurations for a corporate horoscope, and both stocks are very badly beaten down. Thus, a wonderful astrological speculation. Not for the faint of heart. This is an ambush strategy. Buy now and wait quietly in the bushes. And no smoking. I hope I have answered your question. Don't bother yourself about earnings, and stuff like that. That is always old news, and there are far too many people who know about that ahead of you. I like to get there before even the insiders know what's gonna happen.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:40 - ID#348257)
Ok, OK, dammit. So I'll add a few more gallons of bottled water and another six bushels of dried legumes. But they won't get my gold!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:41 - ID#153110)
@Tawkin New Yawk Tawk
A New York City Travel Vignette... Taking a Bite Out of the "Big Apple"


NEW YORK, Sep/98 - Whoever came up with the idea of calling New York City
the "Big Apple" ( John J. Fitzgerald, born in 1893, a sports writer used to refer in the 1920s to the horse racing track as the "Big Apple?" ) , probably had no idea what an apple looks or tastes like. Which is sad for a state ( NY ) whose "state fruit" is the apple.

An apple is a creation of God, not man; it's round, not particularly big;
it's colorful; it's edible; it's good for your health ( "an apple a day
keeps the doctor away" ) . New York City has none of these attributes; the
least of all its heart - Manhattan. Yet it has more than its share of

I remember once, back in 1983, walking into the Times Square's blaze of
sights and scents accompanied by a Canadian publisher. "Isn't it
beautiful?" he exclaimed. "Look at all the beautiful people! Black,
white, brown... So much life; so much vibrancy."

"Had he already been into the sauce even before the cocktail hour?", I
remember wondering.

I gave my friend a glance of incredulity which bounced off his glowing face
as if it were an armored plate. For, all I could smell was the garbage
piled up in front of a restaurant. And the BO ( body odor ) of the "Big
Apple" residents who had not discovered the virtue of deodorants on a hot
August night. I thought of Frederick Langbridge ( 1849-1923 ) , who said,
"two men look out through the same bars; one sees the mud; and one the
stars." Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

I also recalled the leaky faucet in my "beautiful," "very literary," and
very overpriced hotel ( "The Algonquin" ) , at which this publisher, my dinner
companion, had suckered me into staying. But, I consoled myself with,
"fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice; shame on me"-saw. ( That was my
only stay at "The Algonquin" in the last 15 years; though I did discover
later on that they have excellent muffins if you care to have an early
breakfast there ) .

Anyway, more than a dozen years, and several dozen visits later, I began to
realize that the "Big Apple" does have a certain appeal for certain people
- those who generally don't like apples; who prefer creations of man, not
God; who like things square, not round; whose favorite color is gray; who
eat the vending machines food; whose idea of minding one's health is
joining an expensive health club which they don't frequent; who have
children, but no time for them; who keep pets, but can't be bothered to
walk them; who worship money as if it were God. In other words, the people
who have everything, but a life.

Well, not quite... Because underneath one of the world's most famous
skylines, the "high life" and the "low life" New Yorkers share the same sky
in the city of skyscrapers. Scrape away the glitzy veneer, and you will
find life bursting to free itself from this urban prison.

On a warm, summer weekend in Central Park, for example, the inmates who
managed to escape their cubby-holes in the honeycombed apartments,
practically trample all over each other trying to claim their own patch of
green in this city of gray under the sky of blue. Yet even here, one can
always tell the "high life" from the "low life" New Yorkers.

The "high lifers" arrive at high noon in their chauffeur-driven limos for a
stylish brunch at the "Tavern on the Green." Other "high lifers" who
weren't lucky enough to get the reservations in time send their pets
instead. In chauffeur-driven limos, of course. And in the company of
professional pet walkers.

The "low lifers" bring their own barbecues; hibachis; frisbees... or just
themselves. And they dream of a day when they'll be able to send their own
pet in a stretch limo for a pee in the Park.

Such a day is increasingly beyond the reach of many Wall Street "bull
market" high-flyers. Even as the Dow is still flying high, many of the
brokers and bankers are being told to go fly a kite amid yet another Wall
Street "restructuring."

"Oh, my God, my boss just got fired. And my boss's boss, too," Wall Street
insiders can be overheard as gossiping. "And they had only 10 minutes to
leave the premises. The secretaries were crying all over the place."

But there is always a silver lining around any cloud. Count in the fired
boss as another man/woman who now may have time for his children and pets;
who may still continue to worship money, but will realize that it's not
God's creation; that love of money is the root of all evil. In other
words, a man who may no longer "have everything," but who may have a life.

Just like the disgruntled cabbie whom I hailed at around the Grand Central
station, only a few steps away from the Waldorf Astoria hotel, where
President Bill Clinton was at the time squeezing the flesh ( not Monica's ) ,
hoping for new New York handouts ( which he got ) .

"Where you wanna go?" asked an angry-looking taxi driver. ( Don't figure on
being treated as a paying customer by the New York cabbies. Most of them
think they are doing you a favor by saving you from the New York subways.
And they probably are, too... )

"Upper East Side."

"Okay. Hop in then. But you'll be my last ride for the day." ( It was only
about 3 PM ) .

I got in and we inched our way northward along Park Avenue. "Your last
ride? Are you sick or something?"

"No. But I am sick of Bill Clinton."

"You're certainly not alone. But why do you feel that way?"

"Haven't you see the mess he is causing? Man, I never saw anything like
it. Midtown traffic is locked up so tight you can hardly move."

Indeed. We had just spent several minutes waiting to get past the Waldorf.

The traffic got a little better after that. "Where do you live?", I asked.

"In Queens. Which is why I agreed to take you to Upper East Side. After
that, I go across the bridge, and Bud Light, here I come."

* * * *

As I walked toward the building I was staying in, I noticed a Ford Bronco
parked in front of it, with a front license plate which read, "Make my day!"

"Funny," I thought. Not only because New York state requires regulation
license plates at both ends of a car. But because Ford Broncos are too big
for the "Big Apple" traffic. "Must be be some sort of a 'redneck'," I
penciled in a thought about the truck's owner. Especially as a Confederate
Flag was also visible through the window.

Anyway, I walked up to the apartment I was using and went about my
business. Which included putting out the garbage in the building's
basement. Big mistake! When I returned from some grocery shopping, I
found one of the bags which ( I thought ) I had put out, hanging on the
apartment door knob.

"Hm..." I thought. "They have a strange way of disposing of garbage in New
York City. Bringing it back to the source. Whatever... Just one more
weird thing about this city."

I took the bag into the apartment, and had not given the episode much of
thought until my host arrived home from work, later that evening. As I
walked out of the elevator to open the main door, I heard noises which
sounded like two people arguing. It seemed as if the superintendent was
giving my host a hard time over the garbage disposal. Being from Arizona,
where we just put out our garbage once a week for a pick up, I had
evidently not done a good enough job of pre-sorting it.

"What do I know about your stupid New York City garbage rules?" I shouted
angrily at the rough-looking superintendent, once I realized that I was the
main culprit. "And if you wanted me to know about them, why didn't you
come and talk to me, rather than just hang a garbage bag on the door?"

"You know, you're pretty lucky," I added after a pause to allow the
recipient of my venom a chance to digest it. "If this were my apartment,
you would be getting that garbage bag back in your face right about now!"

The "super" looked stunned. The "high life" people aren't supposed to talk
that way. But I wasn't the "high lifer." Certainly not the way I looked
back then, dressed in sports shorts and a T-shirt.

"Why are you yelling at me?", was evidently only thing the "super" could
think of saying. "I could be fined by the City for this, you know."

"Who is yelling?", I retorted, still in a challenging tone of voice.

It was a scene fit for a play. Not just because it took place in the
entrance hallway of the apartment building, thus presumably being overheard
by other tenants. But also because of what happened next...

Just as the temperature in our heated exchange was approaching the boiling
point, I suddenly smiled and said with a wink: "But why are we arguing
anyway? We are both 'rednecks', aren't we?"

( I took a chance here, assuming that the Bronco was his ) .

The "super" smiled and shook my hand firmly. We never said another word.

Later on that evening, my host was worried that the superintendent would
now take his revenge on her.

"On the contrary," I replied. "Now he'll treat you like princess." ( An
old lesson I learned as a kid about how to treat a bully - push back, only
harder. And about how NOT to treat a lady ) .

* * * *

The next day, I went to Wall Street. By cab. I told my black taxi driver
about my other cabbie who quit early because of Clinton.

"Yeah. Yesterday was living hell in traffic," the cabbie said

We drove in silence for a while.

"Clinton lied," the driver said suddenly.

"Beg your pardon?"

"Clinton lied. And he thought he could get away with it."

"Why? Because he is trying to differentiate between lying and perjury?"

"Between lying and perjury? It's the same thing, man. The same thing.
Say, I go before a judge who asks me if I had cheated on my wife. Of
course, I would have lied and said I had not. But I'd never have claimed
that I had told the truth as Clinton is doing. Only the politicians do
things like that."

"Yet they even get paid for it," I baited the cabbie. "I hear that Clinton
collected several million dollars in donations yesterday at that Waldorf

"Yeah! That's the sickest part of it."

"Not quite."

"Not quite? What could be worse?"

"What's worse is that both Clinton and the people who pay him to lie think
they can fool God."

The driver's temple had wrinkled up at this thought. For a few seconds he
said nothing.

"You're right. Nobody can fool God. But there are fools who think they can."

"My, oh my..." I thought, without saying anything. "Here I was; on Wall
Street; smack in the heart of the heart of Gotham City, and my black cabbie
has just delivered a Sunday sermon as if he were a Bible belt preacher."

"You can drop me off at that corner," I said, reaching for my wallet.

"Have a nice day!" the taxi driver said. "Don't work too hard."

* * * *

Since I had about half an hour to kill between by appointments, I walked to
"Timothy's Coffee Bar" on Broad Street, right next to the New York Stock
Exchange, and ordered a black. A friendly "waiter" ( I thought ) explained
that this is a self-serve coffee bar, and showed me how to get my $1.70-cup
of coffee.

"$1.70 for a cup of coffee?" I thought, remembering the "good old days"
when coffee was ( I won't tell you how many cents, since this would date me ) .

"Oh, that's nothing," a ( New Yorker ) friend later told me to whom I
complained about the high cost of living in Manhattan. "Not long ago, I
used to take out $200 from my bank's ATM. Now I have to get $500 to last
me the same length of time. I haven't changed my lifestyle. If anything,
I've cut back on a few things. So don't let anyone tell you how there's no
inflation. That's Alan Greenspan bullshit."

Indeed. A dinner for three ( not at the "Tavern on the Green," but at
another "nice" NYC restaurant ) ended up costing almost $300. In Phoenix, a
similar menu would have cost $150 maximum, also at a top-rated restaurant.
But, Phoenix is no New York, some say. Luckily!

* * * *

As I strolled from Wall Street toward Broadway and to my next appointment,
a beautiful sight pierced the crowded downtown Manhattan skyline. Trinity
Church, the highest point in New York when it was ( re ) built, in the
mid-19th century, modestly pierced the skyline of 1998, tucked in between
the huge skyscrapers. The hour was just after noon. And Trinity's
( Anglican-Episcopalian ) service was in progress. I walked in.

There could not have been more than a dozen worshipers. Yet, "this is the
probably richest congregation of any in the U.S.," a Wall Street insider
told me later on the same afternoon.

"That explains it," I replied cynically. "Who's got time for God when
you're trying to make money, if your God is money."

* * * *

As I returned later the same day from my Wall Street appointments to my
Upper East Side apartment, I saw the "super" working on his Bronco.
"Bingo! So my guess worked," I thought.

I walked over to him, shook his hand again firmly, and said that I was
leaving town today, but wanted to thank him for being so nice to my host in
this building. This time, I was wearing my "Wall Street" suit. It didn't

He replied with a big, broad smile. "Well, I've put away five landlords in
the 38 years I've been here."

"You've put away five landlords?"


"How did you put them away?"

"They all died. And here I am, 64 and still going strong."

He paused for a moment. "But the current landlord is only 37. I don't
think I will outlive him," he added wearing a devilish-looking smirk.

After that, he proceeded to tell me his life's story. He is originally
from Arizona ( how's that for coincidence!? ) . Fought in Korea; wounded in
the leg; taken to a Stuttgart, Germany, hospital; learned German while
convalescing; discharged in France, where he spent eight years before
coming to New York; speaks English, German, French, Schwabish ( old German? )
and "Jewish" ( whatever he meant by that; probably Yiddish? ) .

We parted as old "redneck" pals. "Don't worry about anything," he said as
we said our good-byes. "And have a good trip!"

An emergency siren sounded on the nearby 2nd Avenue. The uniformed
doorman up the street merely shifted his weight from his left to his right
foot, continuing to file his nails, unperturbed by the noise. Another
hour, another emergency in the "Big Apple." Another shrug. Except if you
don't presort your garbage correctly.

Bob Djurdjevic TRUTH IN MEDIA

But, hey, they don't got no washers on their front porch like the folks in the sticks, do they ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:51 - ID#37463)
Inflations is back big time
I have proof from the following story that inflations is back.

An elderly and somewhat hard-of-hearing man was sitting in a
stylish downtown attorney's office as his lawyer handed him his will.
"Your estate is very complex," said the lawyer, "but I've made sure
that all of your wishes will be executed. Due to the complexity, my
fee is $4500."

Just then, the phone rang and the lawyer got involved with a long
call. Thinking the lawyer had said "$500," the old man wrote out his
check and left. When she got off the phone and realized the old
man's mistake, the lawyer ran after him down the stairs and into the
parking lot just as he drove away.

Feeling frustrated, the lawyer looked at the check and decided to
accept the situation philosophically. "Oh well," she said to herself,
"$500 for one hour's work isn't bad."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:52 - ID#411440)
@ all re lease rates: I tried to upload this file and was
unsuccessful. so we will do it the hard way. Go to:

for a graph of lease rates vs spot gold prices vs forward rates

dating back to 1988 when leasing first began. You will find

the pattern interesting to say the least. There has never

been a spike in gold prices when lease rates were under 1% and

lease rates always spiked before spot did. Sorry I couldn't

upload this, but I think everybody should have a copy of this

graph ( s ) .

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:53 - ID#37463)
Inflation again
Sorry I didn't realize that inflations for plural. Maybe there is just a lot of it.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:55 - ID#341189)
Asian recovery early next year-IMF's Fischer-today's NYtimes
Fischer predicted that unless there was another international financial
shock, the region's worst-hit countries would see recovery by early next

``The most badly affected countries are probably very close to the
bottom or at the bottom now,'' Fischer said, noting that significant reform
of banking systems has already been pushed through.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 07:55 - ID#37463)
Inflation revisited yet again
This time maybe I'll get this right. I realize that inflation
is not a plural condition. Only multiple lawyers are plural.
I'm off to walk in the park.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:03 - ID#24135)
a sorry tale ..
Mozel ..
for yoah eyes only ..
well now Gen'ral ..
It is disheartenin to heah of the numbah that has
been done on my fast dissappearing state by them
dad burned scallywags ..
While I agree that legally speakin foggin up the
bordahs will certainly affect jurisdiction to some degree,
the potomac river section is hard to play around.
However, were I you, and with that warrant and all,
I would tend to stay on the friendly side of that
river .. and if by some mischance you-all happen to
run afoul of some warrant happy marshall .. jes
mention mah name to the judge.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:13 - ID#348257)
sometimes the washing machines and the porches are invisible. But they are everywhere. They are everywhere.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:18 - ID#348257)
ps - whoever wrote that is a convict in the "glitzy prison" of the literary culture that made the Algonquin so cherished a landmark in New York city of days gone by. Always a new kid on the block gotta prove 'em self. Nice try. But a little hackneyed.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:21 - ID#284255)
I'm sure you'd give them your gold.
At a 600% profit.....

After all we all have a price. ( :- ) ) ) )

Honestly, who knows how it will turn out?
But it's not so simplistic.
Much will happen.

So many geeks are trashing Gartner's report for what it's worth.

Here's another survey.
From our friends FEMA

Everbody shall comply YA!!!

Bully Beef
(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:22 - ID#259282)
Nice to see the smoke cleared around here...Till the next full moon.
What a howler.Spend a week in the woods looking for Bambi's mother.She lives. Male bonding and excessive flatulance are not all they are cracked up to be.I know why I stopped drinking rye whisky.
The sucker rally lasts until after the Christmas shopping season.
REMEMBER!"Forty more shopping days ...til Christmas day!"

(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:30 - ID#411440)
@ sharefin: If y2k locks up people's money in bank accounts and
only the lucky first 1% actually get cash out in time, won't we
have too few dollars chasing too many goods and services? It seems
to me that y2k is more likely to cause massive deflation than

I am buying junk silver, and stockpiling cash at the rate of
$1000 per month, starting now. Before the rush.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:44 - ID#350194)
@Nick @C
Hey Nick!
Last night it was deflation but now it's inflation. My heads still spinning! What's it gonna be? Date: Sun Nov 08 1998 05:08
Nick@C ( G'day Auric ) ID#386245:
Printing $10,000 and $25,000 bills would, IMO, be the equivalant of dropping two
decimals off the value of the currency. Where would all this money be 'spent'??
More money than goods=hyperinflation. The gov't, in a knee-jerk reaction will
hyperinflate when a deflation hits.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 08:48 - ID#350194)
Good Morning Rhody!
I have always hated that term 'junk' Silver. No such thing. 'Junk' bonds? Certainly. But Junk Silver? Never. ;- )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:08 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney: I agree the 'junk silver' is a disagreeable label.
To be specific, I buy Canadian silver dollars and 50 cent pieces
of pree 1968 vintage. They have no collector's value, and IMO never
will have in my lifetime. Canadian silver dollars cost me $6 and
a 50 cent piece is $3 Canadian. That's a 32% mark up over bullion
value at $US5 per oz. I am looking for a less expensive source.
Silver must go to $CAN10 for me to break even. This seems likely
given projections.

Your 10 and 25000 dollar bills are no solution to the y2k
problem. How to you use a $10 000 bill to buy a cup of coffee?
You might as well use a bank draft, which I'm sure the bank would be
happy to provide. Perhaps that's one solution. Five and ten dollar
bank drafts might provide the temprary medium of exchange until the
financial system fixes itself. We are going to need a pile of extra
bank tellers to write up these things and waiting lines at banks are
going to be right around the block. Where there's a will, there's
a way.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:09 - ID#258142)
Open interest analysis

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:12 - ID#245136)
Sharefin re 6:24 post AU lease rates
I have tried unsuccessfully to download the charts mentioned in your 6:24 post and the file is not found. Is something missing from the url? P.S. don't you ever sleep! ( := ) ) ) ) more chins than a Chinese phone book

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:30 - ID#284255)
Sorry about that.
A capital 'L' where I should have had a small 'l'.
Damn machines ( :- ) ) )

Try this one.
There is a month missing from recent times.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:43 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney: Would you be willing to set up another Kitco dinner
for the Toronto chapter? I would be willing to bring along enough
silver high grade slabs from Cobalt Ontario, to give each person a
piece big enough to cut and polish a cabochon for a bola tie ( 30 X 25mm ) .
It would provide a suitable momento for an enjoyable evening.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:46 - ID#31868)
and so it goes...the only state with over 50% voter turnout...yup...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:49 - ID#284255)
In some ways, we can look to the experiences that Asia is suffering.
Not enough dollars, not enough spenders.

When their currency faltered, their prices tumbled.
Even so there were no buyers.
Therefore to keep their profit margins up
They have now increased their prices.

It seams that you lose both ways
When currencies falter.
Inflation/deflation always has the middle man ekking out a living.
Good times or bad.
The consumers are just on the end of the chain.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:50 - ID#344389)
RISING US Interest Rates: Red Flag
It seems to have escaped the attention
of most that US interest rates, short
and long have risen precipitously in
the last weeks, at the very time the
stock market was rising with gusto and
Wall Street is convinced the Fed will again
reduce short rates November 17. How can the
Fed cut rates with the market pushing them hugher
In the last week the US dollar appears to be
firming. The strong dollar was one of the
causes of the collapse of the colonial markets
last summer which then led to the Wall St.

All this seems to be a great danger to the stock market
at current levels given a weak earning picture
and extreme overvaluation of the market. Its impact
on gold prices is less clear to me.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:52 - ID#284255)
Security = gold???? snipped email***
We must not be trapped into using the term "panic" to label those rational and proper behaviors that people and communities take to gain some "insurance" against possible problems re Y2K. People are encouraged to wear seat belts and buy expensive health and accident insurance -- for problems of much lower probability than Y2K disruption. The wise course of action given the uncertainties of Y2K is to invest in security.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:54 - ID#31868)
if only it was this easy...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 09:58 - ID#31868)
and then there is this...who knew?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:05 - ID#45173)
My take on rate cuts
As much as the Fed's sudden rate cut in Oct. has hammered my short positions by setting off a run up in the stock market, I am not critical of Greenspan for having cut rates. In spite of appearences, I do not feel that he cut rates to prolong the bull stock market. In fact, I sense that Greenspan sees the latest stock market rally as an unfortunate side-effect of a necessary emergency measure. He seemed pleased by the more or less gradual decline in stock prices over the summer. Just as occured in the Spring, when I sold my mutual funds, starting last week the Fed is once again suggesting that it wants a "soft landing," an objective made increasingly difficult with a once-again highly overvalued stock market.

It's clear that Greenspan had to lower rates in October in order to prevent illiquidity from irrevokably deapening the financial crisis that hedge fund collapses had started. Greenspan would have rather not raised rates, since coincidentally US treasuries are coming under increased competition from European treasuries due to the ever-increasing risk diversification advantages of holding reserves in a mix of dollar- and euro-denominated treasuries. Lower rates make US treasuries less competitive.

Now that the Europeans have in turn lowered rates, US treasuries are relatively as competitive as before. Meanwhile, confidence in the financial system continues to increase. This decreases the motives for additional rates cuts in two ways: 1 ) evidence is growing that the emergency that required the previous cuts has passed and 2 ) capital flows out of treasuries and back into more high risk instruments means that treasuries are already under intense competitive pressure without a rate cut.

These conditions make a rate cut in November highly unlikely. Unless there is an event that causes another rush to liquidity in the next week, I predict the chances of a rate cut are close to zero.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:07 - ID#31868)
turn on CBS
interesting segment on gold manufacture...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:25 - ID#290172)
Hello! Can't resist sharing some 'interesting news' re: currencies.
There are currencies, and then there are GOLD currencies
Play with this a bit-

Remember my theory that the USD and the Euro would be brought to equivalence? Well--


No, I DO NOT think the IMF has supplanted BIS. One entertains the notion however, that the Bretton Woods dollar, 0.88571, which is the SDR [and 35 of which = one ounce gold--the method by which BOJ values its gold holdings] made/makes a benchmark on which all parties could agree.

16 Oct 1998
XEU:JPY = 141.353
USD:JPY = 115.93

GOLD-SDR:JPY= 146.17
[Gold-SDR is SDR:JPY value * 0,888571]
My work is beginning to strongly indicate that gold is the measure, gold is the leveller, gold is the value.

And then there is the POGlet's play with that
6 November 1998
GOLDSDR:XEU=219.527 [0.004565]

GOLDSDR:USD=259.218 [0.003857]

You will note that the spread between the two POGs [49.668 in 'public' figures] is levelled down to a 39.691 spread.

GOLDSDR:JPY=30484.1 [0.00003280]

We no longer have the luxury of watching the price of gold in one currency, the Potemkin Dollar.

In July, when gold was at 296.xx, I thought the downside risk was, "GOLD -for the next five months-has a DOWNSIDE bias$269.444". On August 27th the minimum bid was 270.750. One feels comfortable identifying that as the bottom for POG USD.

Our "containment box" may be restructured: bottom 280ish [e.g., 281 would be 250 in gold-sdr terms] top 300.

One suspects that they are now positioned close to where they "need" to be. What is problematical? The banks. Derivatives. Politicians. Banks. Meteor showers. Banks. Life.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:26 - ID#45173)
Charleston Gold Bug
I see three possible scenarios:

1 ) A long deflationary period with increased corporate and personal bankruptcy and high unemployment will cause the price of gold to drop. Wealth is slowly detroyed. No one will have any money to buy gold, and gold will look like a worse investment than traditional interest-bearing instruments. Even a small amount of interest earned during deflationary times is a good return on risk. In fact, the Japanese now are paying their government to hold their money, with negative interest rates on government debt. This rather than buy gold. My feeling is that if gold drops slowly to under $270 over the next six months, we are in a confirmed deflation and one is better off selling gold for cash, which will be in short supply.

2 ) A rapid contraction of the money supply due to an event, such as the hedge fund-induced debacle, but one which the Fed is unable to mitigate. A Y2K bank run set off by overseas events is one likely cause. A large amount of wealth rushes to find safety. Most will go into treasuries but, if the dollar simultaneoulsy gets hit due to fears that the US will not be able to meet its obligations without inflating, some capital will seek safety in gold.

3 ) The Fed successfully reflates the economy after a liquidity crisis. The dollar loses value and gold increases in dollar price due to inflation and buying power due to flight from dollar-denominated instruments.

4 ) A gradual stagflation results from a Fed-induced increase in the money supply as a traditional recession follows the latest period of expansion. Interest rates are increased to fund the national debt. Gold rises in dollar price in step with inflation and as capital flows out of a falling stock market into gold as an inflation hedge.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:27 - ID#45173)
Er, I meant four
possible scenarios...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:30 - ID#348257)
rhody - Y2k monetary aggravates
your point about lack of cash, "too few dollars chasing the same amount of good" leading to deflation is interesting. However, given the dire consequences of y2k on supplies of important things to buy like fuel, food, water, ritz crackers, etc, we are looking at a shortage of goods availability. Wouldn't that make it too few dollars chasing too few goods? Is this a wash? No change in price, only just 1% of the population gets to buy anything. I'd better add another few bushels of dried beans to the larder!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:30 - ID#31868)
don't Y2K get boring...nope...

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:42 - ID#348257)
How about

5 - The economies of Asia and Latin America miraculously recover from the current overstated blip, as economic activity in a world without partitions or currencies tied to anything tangible proceeds according to human needs and aspirations rather than mere money flows. The money flows follow the determination of peoples to better their standards of living in a world where all barriers to everyone owning 4x4's and erecting shopping malls have fallen. In such a surprising environment ( after a brief, psuedo-recessionary pause in which central banks the world over have added "liquidity" upon the massive credit growth of the past decade ) the monetary expansion since the 1991 recession catches up with the actual output of goods, services, and availability of resources. It took a while a 'comin'. But the pig gets to the end of the python. Gold begins to climb, and the stock market reacts to the natural, and "regulatory" need for higher interest rates. The market bottoms in a crisis in mid-2000, while gold continues to build a stepladder to higher prices into 2005. My crystal ball gets cloudy from there.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:43 - ID#348257)
I suppose my 5 is a further investigation of your 3 ( sounds like Elliott Wave theory, doesn't it? )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:43 - ID#343449) more..


mozel ( @cherokee ) ID#153110:
Don't delude yourself that your ssm has ever been beyond earth orbit with you in it. You was dreamin' you was on the moon.

don't write checks you cannot cash.......the ssm has been where
YOU can only dream of.......the trips are made daily.....and
i am its' only driver...with dora as navigator.....yes, sweet
dora......and lazarus long......we travel the together.....
no delusions........'together forever' the marshall tucker band...

now, where is beta reticuli........goin there for a picnic without
spacesuits or radiational concerns....we bees in the ssm ya knows...

your seat has been re-assigned to smith barney says....
you have to earn it.......heretics are assigned the seats behind the
plasma seat in the house for a nanosecond...

think we know? here again......things are not
as they are portrayed........

mozel ( @cherokee ) ID#153110:
Don't delude yourself........

don't delude yourselves........yar....


Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:44 - ID#348257)
doesn't anyone shoot 7mm Mashburn Magnum anymore?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:47 - ID#343449)

mike sheller....

the consumate gentleman........and permanent gold card
holder on the ssm.......

you are what makes kitco vote
for man of the year here........@kitco.......


(Sun Nov 08 1998 10:50 - ID#343449)

7mm mag....

the 12 gauge RIFLED SLUG GUN is my sweetie....
scoped and hitting consistent 3" @ 100yds....
mmmm.mmmmmm.good.........with 300 GRAIN SABOT COPPER slugs....

kicks like a mule....hits like atomics.....

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:03 - ID#45173)
Update: November Interest Rates Change Poll
Please vote on how you think Greenspan will effect rates in November.

So far with 39 votes we have 28% guessing that AG will lower rates, 69% that he will leave them unchanged and one vote that Greenspan will actually raise them.

Let's see if Kitco-ites are as good at predicting future rates as short-term changes in the price of gold.

Off for some fresh air.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:05 - ID#93127)
Opting for gold...

From 10/1/98 to 11/6/98 the CNY, in USD was tedious in the extreme

the USD:CNY occasionally made minute moves [ 8.2775 was the lowest] but the CNY:USD NEVER, N*E*V*E*R changed. 0,1208. The average for the month of October was 8.2778.
So-of course-the POG was steady, right?

Wrong. The price of gold in renminbi/yuan is tied to the EURO. XEU:CNY moved from a low of 10.658/0.09935 to a high of 9.8166/0.1019.

POG moved from 2499.13 to 2394.83.

It would appear the Chinese have opted for the way of the BIS.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:07 - ID#423380)

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:17 - ID#242325)
POG and the real fed funds rate
To me the most important single factor determining gold prices is the REAL fed funds rate; now about 3%. This is close to the historic average. The real fed funds rate was less than 1% when the 1993 gold bull began.

I see AG easing another 50 bp by spring, pushing the real fed funds rate down to 2.5%. This rate probably will fall under 2% by late 1999 as inflation picks up moderately.

A 2% real funds rate should be able to push eqilibrium POG to perhaps $350 next year. A short squeeze could push POG much higher, but it will not remain there long. A sustained move near $400 would require a real funds rate under 1%. Not impossible but highly unlikely.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:18 - ID#290172)
Someone asked about currency depreciation. Here is a non-occidental view...
( 2 ) Causes of Currency Depreciation
The root cause of the exchange rate depreciation was the unexpected steep appreciation of the US dollar. The East Asian deficit economies could not keep up with the steep rising exchange rates, and with free capital mobility, the external values of their currencies have thus been given a very thorough beating. The first serious speculative attack was on the Thai baht. The then Thai Government defended the original peg with some US 23 billion dollars in the forward market. The Thai baht fell all the same. Of note is that subsequent IMF rescue package of US$17.2 billion is in fact less than the amount of foreign exchange loss in the initial defence of the Thai baht.

The Chinese renminbi, however, has remained strong, partly because of current account surplus, huge foreign exchange reserves, AND VERY IMPORTANTLY, THE EXISTENCE OF CONTROL OVER CAPITAL ACCOUNT. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea, though having current account deficits, have also no control over capital outflow. THEY BELIEVE IN FREE CONVERTIBILITY OF CAPITAL, AS IS ADVOCATED BY THE IMF, THE WORLD BANK, THE WTO AND THE ALMOST OMNIPOTENT WESTERN MASS MEDIA AND RATING AGENCIES.

It must be remembered that to them, the US is running a trade deficit of more than US$200 billion per year and owes the rest of the world more than US$1000 billion. Money, however, is a matter of confidence.
The Solution to the Asian Currency Crisis
Professor Lim Chong-Yah

These folks are not happy campers.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:24 - ID#290172)
And then there is the BOJ holding 13.44% of forex reserves in GOLD
closer to 15% when one finds the magic conversion factor. 15%. Now isn't that the amount EU decided....? Surely just a coincidence. {:- ) )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:37 - ID#347457)
Run on Banks, Y2K, FDIC, etc.
Oh my, looks like we are all doomed ( not ) . Folks, this discussion is so much similar to discussing how Y2K will end the life on this planet. We take one aspect of banking system and make predictions of complex system behavior based on just one factor ( e.g., cash reserve in bank, amount of FDIC can cover, etc. ) It's much more complex than that.

OK, your deposits. Do you really expect bank to have all deposits stashed in a bank vault? Now where the money for your ( and companies ) loans, mortgages, line of credits, etc. suppose to come from? If money sits in the vault is has no meaning.

Well, lets see. All of us take cash and we will conduct our business in cash. If all entities took the money out ( and paid all their obligations to banks ) there would not be the reason for banks  except for one thing, who is going to move money from end-point-of-sale to producer to supplier, etc.. Do you really expect a supermarket to deliver "cash" they receive from "cash carrying citizens" to all companies that have "goods" on supermarket shelves?  every day?

Do you expect all banks to fail? Well if that happens, I better mortgage myself well over my head because there won't be anybody left to collect on my loans. If only some of them fail, surviving banks will take over assets and obligations on deposits. Sure, some of the wealth will be redistributed, some of the money will be lost ( that's where FDIC is suppose to step in ) .

Remember that the majority of the US population has the following cash flow scenario with banks. Paychecks go in, some cash goes out, and majority of outflow from you account is in form of checks written to your mortgage companies. Car loans, grocery stores, etc. At the end of the month you break even. And that's what you should worry about in Y2K scenario. Go ahead, get some cash to carry your typical business transactions for a month.

Now, do you really think that Y2K will wipe out all records about your bank account? Come on ..We have computer failures every day and we don't loose it. That is the reason for daily back ups so we can recover it. Now, you will tell me how about all wrong transactions applied against my account, wiping it to negative balance. Sorry guys. It's pure accounting principle - debit to one account, credit to other account. Well, if everybody has money take out of his or her account, where that money ends?

Yet, we again take just one part of the system ( gloom where nobody wins ) , e.g.

- All of us will have money taken out ( but nobody's account will be credited )

- We loose our deposits ( but don't loose our obligations )

- Bank will fail ( but no other bank will take over assets and obligations )

- We all take cash out so we can "go and buy", starting run on banks and eventual failure of the system ( but we expect the system go on and support the rest of the chain store-manufactures-supplier )

- Bank carry only 1.7% cash reserve ( but don't talk about that that is about max. of business transactions which can be conducted in cash, even in post Y2K scenario )

- FDIC can cover only 1.5 % of deposits ( but don't talk about the fact that most of the obligations will be handled not through FDIC but through take over by other entities )

I can go on. Again, I am not saying everything is fine, but this "all of us are doomed and destined to loose everything" tone is one-sided, not realistic, and does not describe complexity of the system ( just like Y2K ;- )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:43 - ID#153110)
@SDRer @Sheller @cherokee @JDisney
@SDRer Of course. If two currencies are to be possible reserve currencies for a country, there must be some thing common between them if reducing settlement risk is one of your objectives. Something like Money.

@Sheller $1.70 for a cup of coffee and sorting garbage for the City without pay caught my eye. Sorta seconding Cherokee, I think you fully qualify as a New Yawk gentleman.

@cherokee Gave my ssm seat away, huh ?. So, you and Dora and LL could smoke your way up the stairway to heaven with lgbito in tow, huh ? Don't shoot your foot, FeatherBoa.

@JD I believe, General Disney, in your latest instruction you have placed me in the untenable position of regarding the WRONG side of the Potomac as friendly territory.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 11:56 - ID#350194)
Rhody - Sorry - Toook a break - and in fact am about to do so again . Toronto Kitcoite Dinner Meeting #2 - Sounds great to me. Any and all interested please e-mail me in next couple of weeks and we'll set a time. In next couple of weeks any and all may re-post this message with my contact e-mail address,
Also Rhody - I believe that one time I researched the 1966 and previous Canadain Silver dollars and found them to cntain 2/3 pure oz. of Silver. Please corrct me if wrong. This would mean taht at about $7.50 ( Cnd. ) per oz. you are getting $5.00 of Silver. So at $6.00 you are paying $1.00 premium on $5.00, therefore only about 20%. Not too too bad. No Jacob Tou Tou jokes please.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:02 - ID#24135)
Ah bitin mah tongue ..
Pahdon me..
Gen'ral Mozel ..
Ah was of coahse usin the term "friendly" ver loosely..
Let us say friendly in the sense that in order to
get at you .. the great but dissapearin state of
Virginia would have to first find you and then
extradite you to get any joy ... that seems to me
to be a whole lot of trouble to have to go to ..
particularly in warm weather.. Unless those ole boys
have changed since Ah was theah OR of coahse unless
you did somethin that p!ssed em off REAL BAD .. Ah
suspect that they would just let you be ...
As long as you dont force the issha.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:03 - ID#153110)
Overheard at retail, "Why do we have to use our birthdays for all these transactions ?"
I have stood outside the bank when the door was locked during business hours. There is a lot of margin for error in your thinking about your money on deposit. Little jingle: "We're Madison, Madison, Madison Savings & Loan."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:06 - ID#258195)
wert.......Many thanks for your generous comments at 12:33 yesterday. It is encouraging to be told when one's meagre efforts are appreciated and I am most grateful to you. Sorry about the delay getting here but my ISP has been updating their hardware

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:07 - ID#219363)
@SDRer, @Mozel, @Cherokee, @Bart's Policy
@SDRer, surely that was a hint that BOJ would take on the Euro, and not a hint that they might be included in the Union at some time *grin*. EU isn't gonna let the fat kid on the team before the big game.

@Mozel, I'm from Virginia! Sitting there now even, leaves are pretty.

@Cherokee, I likes the .380 Mac'rov.

@Bart's Policy, GO GOLD!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:08 - ID#343449)

sir mozel....

thank you ......thank you......
i trying to walk out the door
but rotfl instead.................

your seat awaits.....silver status permanatus....
gold status awarded upon arrival.......

lgbito has a seat in coach.......but he is on-board,
and welcome when muzzled.....!; ) ....sorry...sorry....
did not mean it! just had to say it.....type it........
really.....seriously....bito is a rider....though he'd
probably deny it......ALLABOARD!


(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:21 - ID#290172)
Prices of gold...
If they are using their own unit of account "0.78886708" then we get something like this
"Prices" of gold


Re: banks
New rule of thumb? "Never carry more bank balance than you can afford
to lose?" Karl Malden still alive? Shoot the promo in front of one of
the 'equal opportunity banks' in an old red-line district?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:32 - ID#174103)
deflation and rate cuts
While the current global rate cuts are designed to keep the cost of borrowing new capital low, because of lower price levels due to overinvestment and oversupply, it is a mathematical certainty that the profit margins of capital and consumer goods industries will continue to decline. As companies compete for market share, further downward movements in price levels can be expected. No matter how low the cost of capital due to addition of liquidity, the overhanging supply glut will eventually be adjusted by cutbacks in production. All that these rate cuts have accomplished is to extend the time horizon for economic contraction.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:38 - ID#290172)
And, not so incidently

Know will have the wherewithal to meet Y2K heads-up?
Check out the new Islamic Trading Center site.

Gold in its proper guise.
A MORAL force.
And in the hands of the people.

Mozel@home.again One had two prayers through October. That Boxer [CA senator] would be KO-ed and that Mozel would be OK. One is willing to settle for 50%the latter being of more importance than the former.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:42 - ID#187109)
is my seat next to TeddO & Willy?? And how do you get one of those platinum status seats......I will bring plenty of fuel to elevate us to a thousand heavens and beyond ( ! ) :- ) )

don't touch the plasma coils ''s a raunchy smell when that happens......smells like burnt seeds.........a major no-no in the ssm.... prepare myself for the trip


go golf! ( ing )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:42 - ID#347457)
You said "There is a lot of margin for error in your thinking about your money on deposit."

I know that, however, the margin is less than in "We all need to take all of our money out". I was just presenting some contrary arguments. BTW, I don't deal with banks, and my monthly cash flow at my Credit Union pretty much zeroes out ( what goes in goes out ) - not too much to take out or to loose. Just like for majority of poplulation ( which suppose to run to withdraw their money ) . Well, I can take it out and start sending my mortgage payments using money orders.

Standing in front of the bank with door closed? For how long? Day? Week? Month? Three months? That's what you should ask yourself if you are some source of income from your work ( in addition to money sitting in the bank )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:43 - ID#34883)
mole: thanks for the response, I warn you, the scope that Mises affords is not for the faint
hearted, sometimes methinks that one is better off stuck in a conceptual bubble. But if
you're of the belief that life is only lived as a human being once, and knowledge pursued
is knowledge pursued for its own sake, then carry on.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:44 - ID#348129)
ANYone have an idea why this fund is trading 27% below NAV @ 10.60 CDN?
They had a tax liability which was settled recently.
PM mutual funds trade at NAV, IMO this fund is way undervalued......

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:49 - ID#187109)
I would gladly scoot over to make room for Mozel....
as long as he knew that the first stop was to the moon.......for a little stroll...........a virtual 'rest stop' before the real journey begins..........if you will.

I am bringing golden-dimpled-golf balls to smack around up there too. With 432 dimples...........I've tried it with 482 dimples but the balls are just too lofty........perhaps I've got to 'adjust' the core a bit...............

got lead? the 'smith


(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:49 - ID#350194)
Rhody - If you ever get back here today please not the $10K and $25k notes were a reprint from Nick@C's post. Also I note that you are looking for a cheaper way to invest in Silver. Well once you have enough Silver Dollars and Halfs for everyday bartering purposes you can diversify into the pure kilo bars which have very little mark-up.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:50 - ID#219363)
Lots of talk about deflation today. Deflation WILL happen, rather like the night following the day, deflation must happen at some point. Faith has been at high levels for a long time, along with that comes investment, growth, high employment, and apple pie. But after a period of growth like that, there is always a time of pulling back, of protecting what you have instead of shooting for what you could get. The bull helps you get what you want, the Bear helps you want what you get. The only requirement for deflation is that people lose a little bit of faith in tomorrow and start saving for it instead of assuming they'll be in a better position to save next week. They stop borrowing under the assumption that they'll always have their jobs and money to repay, and start paying off debt so as to not get caught behind the 8 ball if the economy turns south. Companies stop investing in capital equipment and start doing more things internally instead of using outside sources, they start laying off employees and cutting costs, maximizing profits, but finding they have to cut prices to retain market share, etc. Deflation is ugly, nobody wants it. Deflationary times give rise to lack of faith in government, lack of faith in our brothers, and lack of faith that tomorrow will be nice, definitely a time for buying call options against alchohol reserves. It's a horrible thing when an increasing number of ants stop cooperating to build the ant hill, but it always happens when the ant hill gets really big over a long period of time. You know you're in deflation when everyone is complaining about taxes being too high, people are hoarding cash and resources, bonds drop off, equity markets drop off, un-employment rises, Congress starts appearing more in political cartoons, people want to elect a President based on financial abilities, you lose your job, the women are dressing in conservative browns, greys and blacks, cynicism rises, leaders seem like the problem and not the solution, and your woman fixes the jacket you have instead of asking you to go buy a new one *grin*. Deflation is about keeping what's yours instead of getting what you could get. Deflation is about what's here now, and not about what could be there tomorrow. Deflation isn't fun.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:51 - ID#187109)
there you go talking to yourself again ;- )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:54 - ID#31868)
GIBBOUS, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...GET CAMDESUSS!!...he is a lowlife
dirtbag inflicting pain and suffering on the world with OUR money...if you want to insult a leper-criminal rat, call it a Camdesuss...nuff said.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:57 - ID#348257)
you're right...except I grinds my own beans and recycle my own garbage.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 12:59 - ID#34883)

(Sun Nov 08 1998 13:01 - ID#187109)
and the SDRer cements himself a seat
in the infinite ssm with this tidbit.... ( worth reading agian and again ) ............ ( I had to read it four times ) ..........hmmmmmm

Date: Sun Nov 08 1998 10:25

SDRer ( Hello! Can't resist sharing some 'interesting news' re: currencies. ) ID#290172:

Copyright  1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

There are currencies, and then there are GOLD currencies

Play with this a bit- ........................

--------------------------'re heavy dude... ( grin ) . sharpen the lawnmower blade ( for real )


@gogolf ( ing ) ( ! )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 13:18 - ID#280214)
How pure must 24K Gold be? Does any know
What the legal definition is? Must it be .999 or can it be .99 or even anything over 23.5K or about 98%? Thanks, in advance, for any guidance.

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 08 1998 13:22 - ID#287378)
@ EB-skiy. Welcome back. this one's for you!
New definitions for the 90s...

"What a salmon day! While I was being dilberted in the adminisphere all
afternoon, Jack was committing assmosis with the seagull manager by
blamestorming the chainsaw consultant for the loss of the Microsoft

I knew he was 404, but that was a big-time CLM. He's gotta be a flight
risk now! You could see he realized it, too, because in an ohnosecond he was performing percussive maintenance on his brand new PC which, of course, created some excellent prairie dogging."

To translate, please read the definitions below.

Latest terms to add to your vocabulary in the late 90s office

Salmon day - The experience of spending an entire day swimming
upstream only to get screwed and die in the end.

Dilberted - To be exploited and oppressed by your boss. Derived
from the experiences of Dilbert, the geek-in-hell comic strip character. "I've been dilberted again. The old man revised the specs for the fourth time this week."

Adminisphere - The rarefied organizational layers beginning just
above the rank and file. Decisions that fall from the adminisphere are often profoundly inappropriate or irrelevant to the problems they were
designed to solve.

Assmosis - The process by which some people seem to absorb
success and advancement by kissing up to the boss.

Seagull Manager - A manager who flies in, makes a lot of noise,
shits all over everything and then leaves.

Blamestorming - Sitting around in a group discussing why a
deadline was missed or a project failed and who was responsible.

Chainsaw consultant - An outside expert brought in to reduce the
employee head count, leaving the brass with clean hands.

404 - Someone who's clueless. From the World Wide Web error
message "404 Not Found", meaning that the requested document could not be
located. Don't bother asking him...he's 404, man.

CLM - Career Limiting Move - Used among microserfs to describe
ill-advised activity. Trashing your boss while he or she is within
earshot is a serious CLM. ( Also known as CLB - Career Limiting Behavior )

Flight Risk - Used to describe employees who are suspected of
planning to leave the company or department soon.

Ohnosecond - That minuscule fraction of time in which you realize that you've just made a BIG mistake.

Percussive Maintenance - The fine art of whacking the crap out
of an electronic device to get it to work again.

Prairie Dogging - When someone yells or drops something loudly
in a "cube farm" ( an office full of cubicles ) and everyone's heads pop up over the walls to see what's going on.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 13:49 - ID#280214)
Depression effects
Sheller@10:30 My 1935 World Almanac shows a drop of 1/3 from 1929 to 1933 in many retail food prices ( it lists sugar, sirloin, etc. )

Nick@C last night at 23:57. Most of the lessons you write of were ingrained into folks who lived through the depression. Many young whippersnappers would be well advised to hang out at their local senior center, talk with the old timers, help them with things they need help with - such as getting groceries home or other chores. You will learn invaluable lessons from the experience and wisdom of these folks over 75. My parents are now in the eighties and instill frugality into me from day one. It will be a hard adjustment now that I've learned looser ways but it will be possible. No electricity, phone, TV, computers, natural gas, grocery stores, etc. Big deal! We can survive. We may even use the time to advantage by learning that we don't need all this "stuff" to get by.
Reading real books and talking to folks may come back into vogue. Our species, our nation, our communities, and our selves may come out of this "disaster" much stronger and better prepared to meet future such hard times. Let's call it a RITE OF PASSAGE from this millenium to the next.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 13:53 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney: Just got back from the coin dealership. I paid $CAN2.00
for some 1942 to 1966 50 Canadian 50 cent pieces. They are 800
grade silver and contain .30 troy oz each. This makes them worth
about Can$2.37 each. I also bought 4 one oz bullion waffers. for
$CAN10.00 each. The kitco price per oz for 1 kilo bars is about
$CAN8.99 per oz but then shipping and insurance adds to that
significantly. The silver content of Canadian silver dollars is
800 fine before 1968, ( .600 troy oz contained ) and after 1970 it
rose to 925 fine. Dealers tend to want too much for these.

Yes I realize that Nick first posted the idea of printing the
$25000 bill as a solution to a y2k inspired paper liquidity crisis.
I actually thought the idea was quite creative. Actually spending
such denominations would be difficult unless you like cash purchases
of cars and houses. Paying cash for a car is the only way I would
do it, but I understand that I may be a bit unusual in this regard.

I shall be in touch with regards to a Kitco dinner meet in
Toronto. If you will set it up, and tell me how many are coming,
I shall bring the high grade silver slabs for souvenirs, and tell
people where they can have them cut into cabochons for belt buckles,
bola ties or broaches. Last time was a very interesting evening.

Go gold ( and silver ) , Rhody

(Sun Nov 08 1998 14:05 - ID#286249)
OOPS! Typing letters has marginally improved, but numbers are still a problem {:-((
The gold SDR is 0.888671...sorry. I've input that number so many times one would think I'd have it down pat! Here it is OFFICIAL-like:

"The Fund's unit of account is the SDR ( see entry below ) .

Members' currencies are valued by the Fund in terms of the SDR on the basis of their representative rates of exchange, determined in accordance with the Rules and Regulations of the Fund. Gold with depositories is valued on the basis that 0.888671 gram of fine gold is equivalent to 1 SDR ( SDR 35 per fine ounce ) ..."

EB--Congrats! We're all VERY happy for you...we know this means you'll live longer. Or as one wag had it, "it just seems longer...". Much happiness. {:- )

(Sun Nov 08 1998 14:27 - ID#225369)
Mike Sheller
I found you post concerning the creation of money in relation to supply and demand very interesting.The problem is that I have too many gaps to fill so that I can understand what seems so simple and obvious to others.Do you or anyone else know of a basic primer that I could read to help me understand the the basics of fiat money.I want to understand why the fed does what it does.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 14:30 - ID#225369)
Mike Sheller
I found you post concerning the creation of money in relation to supply and demand very interesting.The problem is that I have too many gaps to fill so that I can understand what seems so simple and obvious to others.Do you or anyone else know of a basic primer that I could read to help me understand the the basics of fiat money.I want to understand why the fed does what it does.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 14:48 - ID#242325)
Deflation and inflation
The deflationists on this site got it half right. There were and are strong deflationary pressures in the world. But to assume that the world's CBs acting in concert could do nothing about this in era of total reliance on fiat money is patently absurd.

The next big stock market decline ( which should could coming along next spring ) will reflect mounting fears of INFLATION down the road and the realization that interest rates will be headed higher. At that time gold should be considerably above %300 and treasury bond yields will be closer to 6% than 5%.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 14:58 - ID#257312)
ptwoskool--"They Mystery of Money"

This might help--

(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:04 - ID#219363)
@ptwoskool, @Old Gold
ptwoskool: Might want to check out "History of Money from Ancient Times to the Present", a book I believe I've seen at the local bookstore. Anyway, it seems pretty comprehensive and I tracked down a web reference that has some meaty stuff in it. First link is to the book's main site, second link is to a section of the book called "Democracy and Government Control of the Money Supply". Hope this helps. I don't endorse the book one way or the other as I have never read it.

Old Gold: Certainly we can inflate our way into the eye of a deflationary period, but everybody knows it's just gonna make it worse later *grin*. Better to let the markets work themselves out to some extent, and fix a small problem, than to manipulate yourself into a crisis for short term prosperity, in my opinion. The more fantastic the magician's tricks, the more curious people are about what's behind the curtain.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:10 - ID#147201)
SDRer re Euro
Do you really believe that this weird thing will actually fly?? It looks like a still birth to me, but even if it gets off the ground, how long do you give it?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:25 - ID#252150)
Short the Loonie@Canada is run by a bunch of Loonietics
Just e-mailed this to our local newspaper:

The Editor,

Your front page article"There's help on sex but not hearing, veteran fumes".
caused me to choke on my morning coffee.

Having served 23 yrs in the Forces I'm not surprised that they have reached
this sorry state. The rot set in many decades ago & the people who advance
to the higher ranks are, with very few exceptions, nothing but a bunch of
yes men, who are far more concerned with their own advancement & benefits
than the welfare of the troops.

I can understand why they are prescribing viagra & don't doubt that most of
the prescriptions go to the higher ranks. Not only do they have no guts,
they also have seriously impaired gonads.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:53 - ID#257312)
Charts. Lots of Charts.

Everything from p/e to mutual fund cash to
yield curve spreads, all plotted against the
S&P from 1990 to the present.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:56 - ID#93127)
Chas re:"will it fly?"
Charlie, the working metaphor is no doubt Icarus. {:- )

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 08 1998 15:59 - ID#348257)
In light of your post about Asian nations and their view of the US Dollar, do you see a concerted effort to bring the dollar down ( if even gradually ) , engineered by the US to contain the "contagion"? Would there be reasons not to proceed in that direction?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:06 - ID#153110)
Like a goony bird with two left wings, but it will fly. ( India is on board now, too. ) Can the politics of the ECB be any worse than the politics among Congressional subcomittees on appropriations ? Yet, the greenback is airborne.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:15 - ID#45173)
@OLD GOLD, Mike Sheller, Envy
Yes and no. In many ways deflation is not much fun. But in other ways it's ok. A lot of previously money-ambitious folks wind up in the same sinking boat; deflation has an equalizing effect on a society. Tends to engender less competitiveness and more cooperation among the previously aquisitive classes. Of course, it is very bad to be poor during a deflation.

Mike Sheller,
You're #5 makes sense. I'm still struggling with how one gets money into the hands of bankrupt companies and individuals. In a deflation, fewer want to borrow because the money borrowed today has to be paid back in the future with more valuable dollars and rising unemployment suggest that dollars will be harder to come by in the future. Fewer want to lend because so few are able to repay.

Same as above.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:28 - ID#153110)
Where are these numbers coming from and what parties would have to be co-ordinating for this harmonization to take place ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:29 - ID#219363)
Maximum Bull
Bullish sentiment seems to be super-charging the markets now and may have scared off most of the bears. I've been reading lots of material over the weekend and the consensus seems to be that the markets have once again been saved, and that we're headed to new highs after a brief and painless turn-around ( the market by any account is due for a small correction ) . Will it go down like that ? Well, we just never know do we. One "crash bear" that has been betting against the market even went so far as to call 10000 and suggested purchasing calls, which amazes me, if for no other reason than I'd wait to see what's on the other side of this rally before I made any predictions on stepping into call positions. As I've stated since about June, I'm out, and will stay out, until the last bull is out. For now, most bears seem to be running for the exits. The contrarian in me won't seem to let me move back into the equities, and so I'll continue to draw my percentage gains as interest.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:37 - ID#153110)
@March 10, 1933
Did Clinton's power grab Executive Order go into effect yesterday as scheduled ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:42 - ID#258195)
@ larryn
Back again!! ( They say our ISP is now better )
Yesterday you said at 12:12 pm:
"I appreciate your contribution with your gold index, but your comments about gapping up and
islands are only statistical. Because gold and currencies change slowly overnight around the
world, your index should, too. Your gap reflects the price only when you measure it from London
AM and PM prices. In other words, overnight the gap was traversed and covered and only
noticed after London quoted the new value. Am I correct or am I missing something else?"

I agree you are correct in that we now operate in a global market for everything which never closes ( except at weekends ) . To that extent, no matter what the Financial Instrument, we cannot, strictly speaking say there are discontinuities which enable candlestick charts to be drawn any more.
However, the Gold Market in London is far larger than Comex and Tocom, I believe. To that extent, the London market is relatively self-contained, and when it closes, the bulk of the world's Gold trading comes to an end. As of 1996, the NET daily clearing volume in London was some 30 million ounces. On Thursday 5th November, the Comex GROSS volume was about 40K contracts -- representing PAPER transactions of only 4 million ounces.
It is not correct to say that I measure only from the AM and PM prices. Rothschilds supply the day's High, Low and Closing prices every day. The AM and PM fixes are just a part of this
But whatever you may say about continuous trading, the fact remains that the islands and gapping on my Index in Sept 1992 DID portend sharp rises in gold prices in the early months of 1993, and I have no reason so far to think things will be any different this time. I remain hopeful, and will be looking for that gap from Monday onwards.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:43 - ID#147211)
mozel your 16:06
Politics of the ECB could not be any worse than Congressional subcommittees! However, we are all in the same country and speak the same language- which in a way makes it worse. The only thing really ( substantially ) going for the greenback is history, compared to the Euro. I'm sure you remember that the real greenback was an interest free currency!!! I really enjoy your sense of humor

(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:44 - ID#258195)
@ sharefin
sharefin..........Sorry for the delay ( ISP ) ....You requested ( at 10:51 yesterday ) some missing Lease Rates. I hope these don't give you indigestion. And I hope you value them because I invested a lot of time compiling them. ( But ANYTHING for you, my dear Fin that Shares! ) .

Weekly Summaries of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 15th Jun to Friday 19th Jun
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.51,,,,,,,1.49,,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,,,1.42,,,,,,,,1.33
3-Month - | 1.60,,,,,,,1.60,,,,,,,,1.54,,,,,,,,,,1.50,,,,,,,,1.41
6-Month - | 1.71,,,,,,,1.71,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,1.56
12-Month-| 2.13,,,,,,,2.16,,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,,,2.02,,,,,,,,2.03
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,2.41
3-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,2.94 ( 0.00 denotes data not available )
6-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,3.22
12-Month| 0.00,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,3.22

Monday 22nd Jun to Friday 26th Jun
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.29,,,,,,,1.25,,,,,,,,1.23,,,,,,,,,,1.28,,,,,,,,1.28
3-Month - | 1.44,,,,,,,1.43,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,1.45
6-Month - | 1.57,,,,,,,1.59,,,,,,,,1.62,,,,,,,,,,1.60,,,,,,,,1.63
12-Month-| 2.00,,,,,,,1.99,,,,,,,,2.01,,,,,,,,,,2.00,,,,,,,,2.02
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.41,,,,,,,2.91,,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,2.66
3-Month- | 2.94,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,2.94
6-Month- | 3.25,,,,,,,3.25,,,,,,,,3.75,,,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,3.25
12-Month| 3.81,,,,,,,3.81,,,,,,,,4.06,,,,,,,,,,4.06,,,,,,,,3.81

Monday 29th Jun to Friday 3rd Jul
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.28,,,,,,,1.23,,,,,,,,1.30,,,,,,,,,,1.29,,,,,,,,1.27
3-Month - | 1.46,,,,,,,1.49,,,,,,,,1.48,,,,,,,,,,1.45,,,,,,,,1.49
6-Month - | 1.94,,,,,,,1.96,,,,,,,,1.94,,,,,,,,,,1.92,,,,,,,,1.93
12-Month-| 2.04,,,,,,,2.04,,,,,,,,2.05,,,,,,,,,,2.02,,,,,,,,2.05
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.66,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,3.16
3-Month- | 3.19,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,3.69
6-Month- | 3.50,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,4.25
12-Month| 3.81,,,,,,,3.81,,,,,,,,4.56,,,,,,,,,,4.31,,,,,,,,4.41

Monday 06th Jul to Friday 10th Jul
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.25,,,,,,,1.25,,,,,,,,1.25,,,,,,,,,,1.22,,,,,,,,1.18
3-Month - | 1.40,,,,,,,1.48,,,,,,,,1.43,,,,,,,,,,1.39,,,,,,,,1.39
6-Month - | 1.94,,,,,,,1.94,,,,,,,,1.92,,,,,,,,,,1.87,,,,,,,,1.87
12-Month-| 2.04,,,,,,,2.05,,,,,,,,2.02,,,,,,,,,,2.02,,,,,,,,2.02
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 3.12,,,,,,,2.87,,,,,,,,2.87,,,,,,,,,,2.62,,,,,,,,2.87
3-Month- | 3.69,,,,,,,2.44,,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,3.19
6-Month- | 4.25,,,,,,,3.75,,,,,,,,3.75,,,,,,,,,,3.75,,,,,,,,3.50
12-Month| 4.56,,,,,,,4.31,,,,,,,,4.31,,,,,,,,,,4.06,,,,,,,,4.31

Monday 13th Jul to Friday 17th Jul
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.03,,,,,,,0.93,,,,,,,,0.95,,,,,,,,,,0.97,,,,,,,,0.95
3-Month - | 1.27,,,,,,,1.19,,,,,,,,1.16,,,,,,,,,,1.19,,,,,,,,1.18
6-Month - | 1.83,,,,,,,1.74,,,,,,,,1.70,,,,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,1.64
12-Month-| 1.94,,,,,,,1.89,,,,,,,,1.83,,,,,,,,,,1.83,,,,,,,,1.82
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.66,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,1.91,,,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.91
3-Month- | 2.94,,,,,,,2.94,,,,,,,,2.44,,,,,,,,,,2.34,,,,,,,,2.29
6-Month- | 3.75,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,3.00,,,,,,,,,,3.00,,,,,,,,3.25
12-Month| 4.06,,,,,,,4.06,,,,,,,,3.56,,,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,3.61

Monday 20th Jul to Friday 24th Jul
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.94,,,,,,,0.95,,,,,,,,0.93,,,,,,,,,,0.85,,,,,,,,0.85
3-Month - | 1.17,,,,,,,1.14,,,,,,,,1.09,,,,,,,,,,1.08,,,,,,,,1.08
6-Month - | 1.68,,,,,,,1.67,,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,,,1.67,,,,,,,,1.66
12-Month-| 1.83,,,,,,,1.82,,,,,,,,1.80,,,,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.76
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.91,,,,,,,2.31,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,,,4.16,,,,,,,,4.16
3-Month- | 2.49,,,,,,,1.24,,,,,,,,1.09,,,,,,,,,,4.94,,,,,,,,4.44 ( Data Tues/Weds suspect )
6-Month- | 3.25,,,,,,,0.75,,,,,,,,0.75,,,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,5.50
12-Month| 3.61,,,,,,,0.51,,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,,,4.31,,,,,,,,5.56

Monday 27th Jul to Friday 31st Jul
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.86,,,,,,,0.90,,,,,,,,0.95,,,,,,,,,,0.99,,,,,,,,1.06
3-Month - | 1.09,,,,,,,1.13,,,,,,,,1.15,,,,,,,,,,1.23,,,,,,,,1.23
6-Month - | 1.65,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,,,1.68,,,,,,,,1.66
12-Month-| 1.77,,,,,,,1.77,,,,,,,,1.77,,,,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.78
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 4.16,,,,,,,3.91,,,,,,,,3.16,,,,,,,,,,3.16,,,,,,,,3.16
3-Month- | 4.94,,,,,,,4.69,,,,,,,,4.19,,,,,,,,,,4.19,,,,,,,,3.94
6-Month- | 5.25,,,,,,,5.00,,,,,,,,5.00,,,,,,,,,,5.00,,,,,,,,4.75
12-Month| 5.16,,,,,,,5.21,,,,,,,,5.21,,,,,,,,,,5.21,,,,,,,,5.06

Monday 03rd to Friday 07th Aug
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.99,,,,,,,0.98,,,,,,,,0.95,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.88
3-Month - | 1.22,,,,,,,1.24,,,,,,,,1.19,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,1.11
6-Month - | 1.66,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,1.63
12-Month-| 1.77,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,1.72
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 3.16,,,,,,,3.16,,,,,,,,2.91,,,,,,,,,,2.91,,,,,,,,2.91
3-Month- | 3.69,,,,,,,3.69,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,3.44
6-Month- | 4.50,,,,,,,4.50,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,4.25
12-Month| 5.03,,,,,,,5.03,,,,,,,,4.93,,,,,,,,,,5.03,,,,,,,,5.03

Monday 10th Aug to Friday 14th Aug
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.91,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,,,0.82,,,,,,,,0.75
3-Month - | 1.09,,,,,,,1.02,,,,,,,,1.05,,,,,,,,,,1.04,,,,,,,,1.00
6-Month - | 1.62,,,,,,,1.60,,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,1.56
12-Month-| 1.71,,,,,,,1.69,,,,,,,,1.70,,,,,,,,,,1.62,,,,,,,,1.71
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.91,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00
3-Month- | 3.49,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,3.44,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00
6-Month- | 4.25,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,4.25,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00
12-Month| 4.78,,,,,,,4.53,,,,,,,,4.53,,,,,,,,,,0.00,,,,,,,,0.00

Monday 17th Aug to Friday 21st Aug
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.73,,,,,,,0.60,,,,,,,,0.65,,,,,,,,,,0.63,,,,,,,,0.61
3-Month - | 1.03,,,,,,,0.88,,,,,,,,0.87,,,,,,,,,,0.85,,,,,,,,0.85
6-Month - | 1.56,,,,,,,1.45,,,,,,,,1.43,,,,,,,,,,1.43,,,,,,,,1.40
12-Month-| 1.66,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,1.59,,,,,,,,,,1.59,,,,,,,,1.58
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.36,,,,,,,2.36,,,,,,,,2.16,,,,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,2.26
3-Month- | 3.09,,,,,,,3.09,,,,,,,,2.94,,,,,,,,,,3.09,,,,,,,,3.09
6-Month- | 4.12,,,,,,,4.12,,,,,,,,3.92,,,,,,,,,,3.97,,,,,,,,3.97
12-Month| 4.17,,,,,,,4.17,,,,,,,,3.97,,,,,,,,,,4.17,,,,,,,,4.17

Monday 24th Aug to Friday 28th Aug
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.61,,,,,,,0.60,,,,,,,,0.57,,,,,,,,,,0.54,,,,,,,,0.60
3-Month - | 0.85,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,0.70,,,,,,,,,,0.77,,,,,,,,0.77
6-Month - | 1.38,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,1.38,,,,,,,,,,1.36,,,,,,,,1.37
12-Month-| 1.38,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,1.38,,,,,,,,,,1.36,,,,,,,,1.37
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.08,,,,,,,2.41,,,,,,,,2.16,,,,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,2.02
3-Month- | 2.71,,,,,,,2.56,,,,,,,,2.31,,,,,,,,,,2.36,,,,,,,,2.67
6-Month- | 3.46,,,,,,,3.31,,,,,,,,3.21,,,,,,,,,,3.11,,,,,,,,3.64
12-Month| 3.41,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,3.26,,,,,,,,,,3.31,,,,,,,,3.93

Monday 31st Aug to Friday 04th Sep
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.00,,,,,,,0.64,,,,,,,,0.64,,,,,,,,,,0.68,,,,,,,,0.60
3-Month - | 0.00,,,,,,,0.71,,,,,,,,0.83,,,,,,,,,,0.89,,,,,,,,0.86
6-Month - | 0.00,,,,,,,1.53,,,,,,,,1.53,,,,,,,,,,1.53,,,,,,,,1.50
12-Month-| 0.00,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,,,1.72,,,,,,,,1.68
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,1.92,,,,,,,,1.87,,,,,,,,,,1.87,,,,,,,,1.87
3-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,,,2.59,,,,,,,,2.59
6-Month- | 0.00,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,3.36
12-Month| 0.00,,,,,,,3.40,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,,,3.30,,,,,,,,3.30

Monday 07th Sep to Friday 11th Sep
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.60,,,,,,,0.62,,,,,,,,0.59,,,,,,,,,,0.57,,,,,,,,0.53
3-Month - | 0.83,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.81,,,,,,,,,,0.80,,,,,,,,0.76
6-Month - | 1.47,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.46,,,,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.40
12-Month-| 1.69,,,,,,,1.69,,,,,,,,1.61,,,,,,,,,,1.65,,,,,,,,1.63
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.74,,,,,,,1.53,,,,,,,,1.82,,,,,,,,,,2.12,,,,,,,,2.34
3-Month- | 2.60,,,,,,,2.41,,,,,,,,2.59,,,,,,,,,,2.81,,,,,,,,3.00
6-Month- | 3.21,,,,,,,2.86,,,,,,,,3.40,,,,,,,,,,3.80,,,,,,,,2.81
12-Month| 3.12,,,,,,,2.81,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,,,3.88,,,,,,,,3.72

Monday 14th Sep to Friday 18th Sep
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.53,,,,,,,0.57,,,,,,,,0.56,,,,,,,,,,0.61,,,,,,,,0.60
3-Month - | 0.77,,,,,,,0.78,,,,,,,,0.79,,,,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.84
6-Month - | 1.41,,,,,,,1.41,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,,,1.39
12-Month-| 1.64,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,,,1.69,,,,,,,,1.69
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 2.09,,,,,,,2.09,,,,,,,,1.99,,,,,,,,,,1.84,,,,,,,,1.74
3-Month- | 3.00,,,,,,,3.00,,,,,,,,2.90,,,,,,,,,,2.70,,,,,,,,2.65
6-Month- | 3.66,,,,,,,3.66,,,,,,,,3.61,,,,,,,,,,3.41,,,,,,,,3.41
12-Month| 3.75,,,,,,,3.75,,,,,,,,3.50,,,,,,,,,,3.38,,,,,,,,3.38

Monday 21st Sep to Friday 25th Sep
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.62,,,,,,,0.61,,,,,,,,0.71,,,,,,,,,,0.75,,,,,,,,1.74
3-Month - | 0.84,,,,,,,0.84,,,,,,,,0.92,,,,,,,,,,0.96,,,,,,,,1.50
6-Month - | 1.35,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,1.42,,,,,,,,,,1.39,,,,,,,,1.66
12-Month-| 1.66,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,,,1.62,,,,,,,,1.73
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.74,,,,,,,1.79,,,,,,,,1.84,,,,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.78
3-Month- | 2.55,,,,,,,2.55,,,,,,,,2.65,,,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.61
6-Month- | 3.36,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,3.10
12-Month| 3.35,,,,,,,3.30,,,,,,,,3.30,,,,,,,,,,3.26,,,,,,,,3.16

Monday 28th Sep to Friday 2nd Oct
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 1.70,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,,,1.37,,,,,,,,1.41
3-Month - | 1.68,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.67,,,,,,,,,,1.66,,,,,,,,1.77
6-Month - | 1.77,,,,,,,1.72,,,,,,,,1.71,,,,,,,,,,1.71,,,,,,,,1.76
12-Month-| 1.82,,,,,,,1.78,,,,,,,,1.77,,,,,,,,,,1.82,,,,,,,,1.73
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.93,,,,,,,2.64,,,,,,,,2.54,,,,,,,,,,3.64,,,,,,,,3.08
3-Month- | 2.55,,,,,,,3.56,,,,,,,,2.65,,,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.61
6-Month- | 3.36,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,3.36,,,,,,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,3.10
12-Month| 3.35,,,,,,,3.30,,,,,,,,3.30,,,,,,,,,,3.26,,,,,,,,3.16


(Sun Nov 08 1998 16:55 - ID#147211)
SDRer re Icarius
By golly, I forgot all about him!! You have absolutely put the hammer to the nail. Regardless of the units etc, if you have gold you have somwthing to spend. Many thanx, Charlie

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:04 - ID#224363)
EB and SDRer
I read it and I read and I read again...

Other than some interesting correlation with the numbers what was the 'eureka !!!'. Or was the correlation the eureka...

Excuse my ignorance...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:04 - ID#153110)
@From Stratfor Report @chas
"There are proposals being made to dramatically increase the power of organizations like the IMF and World Bank, transferring regulatory powers over world financial markets into their hands. These proposals are being made by France, Germany and Japan. The Clinton administration has recently appeared to be increasingly in favor of these changes. These proposals will rip Washington apart. They may well be supported by major banks looking for a way out of the crisis. Free traders who have tended to line up with the banks, like Jim Leach who chairs the
House Banking committee, will be torn between his ideological loyalties and his institutional proclivities. Labor Democrats like Gephardt will be opposed to any such institutional shift. The Christian Right will be utterly opposed. Corporate Republicans will tend to favor the proposals. In short, there will be chaos."

Just in time for Executive power grabs, Meteor Showers, Contagion, & Y2K.

@chas It's hard not to be humorous when you are making observations on the antics of clowns ( even badge and gun toting clowns.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:09 - ID#147211)
Squirrel re 24 K
According to legal requirements, the standard deviation is 1/2 K. IE- if it is 23 1/2 K it can pass for 24K. That's why ,for real definition, you need to use .9999 or .99995 fine. There is no dalliance on the these numbers. Although the bars of 350 to 450 oz can range somewhat, they are definitely marked at their fine content. Hope this helps, Charlie

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:21 - ID#147211)
mozel re 17:04
I think the clinton admin is increasingly ( exponentially ) in favor of anything that would erode the constitution. I'm afraid this has gone further than the word erode indicates. Thanx for the Stratfor- I wasn't aware

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:38 - ID#45173)
Deflation & Indebtedness
U.S. Consumer Credit Expanded In September at 7.9% Annual Rate

Dow Jones Newswires

WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer credit surged at a seasonally adjusted $8.4 billion rate in September, a 7.9% annual rate, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.

It marked the 10th straight monthly increase in consumer credit outstanding and provided further evidence Americans continued to spend as the summer ended, despite an apparent slowing in income growth.

The September increase followed a revised rise of $4.4 billion, or 4.2% at an annual rate in August, which had been previously reported as an increase of $4.6 billion, or a 4.4% annual rate.

Analysts had been expecting a much smaller increase of about $4.3 billion in the latest figure.

Last week, the Commerce Department reported personal spending grew by 0.5%, outpacing income growth and sending personal saving into negative territory for the first time since Commerce began tracking it on a monthly basis in 1959.

Spending has been a bulwark in the economic expansion.

Some analysts see consumers cutting back on spending, and credit, in light of waning consumer confidence. "In September, automobile and revolving credit grew at moderate rates. The volatile 'other' credit category rebounded following a decline in August," the Fed said.

Miscellaneous credit, including mobile home loans, cash loans and certain retail financial contracts, posted the largest gain in September, rising an adjusted $3.4 billion, after falling a revised $1.4 billion the month before.

Revolving credit, which includes retail and credit-card borrowing, posted a $3.1 billion gain in September, following a $2.2 billion August advance.

Auto credit outstanding expanded an adjusted $1.9 billion in September after rising a revised $3.8 billion in August.

At the end of September, seasonally unadjusted overall consumer installment debt totaled $1.285 trillion, up 4.8% from a year earlier.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:46 - ID#16255)
@Envy Re your 16:29
I am almost in the same boat as you are. Being a Big Bear as of late,
I have taken some serious ridicule from friends and family over this
recent market runup when I was saying get out. I should have kept my
trap shut! :- ) . From now on I will. I have gone so far to tell people
that I have sold all my metal positions, given up and am back in
equaties full force. That way, I can cry with them when it all falls
apart in one fell swoop. ( snicker! ) A wolf in sheeps clothing if you
catch my drift?! BAAAAAAA-BAAAAAAA!

Off to pedal my bike around the park to check out the ladies on
roller blades.

Best Regards, O.L.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:51 - ID#147211)
mozel re the clowns
I forgot about the clowns. There are plenty, but clinton is the premier clown. His lineage goes way back in the history of Roumania where the gypsies have pefected the art of pickpocketing. They can get your wallet and you never know it. Clinton could make a fortune on the circuit.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 17:55 - ID#45173)
Working class Americans who lost their jobs to globalization are now flipping burgers
and using short-term debt to finance the standard of living they used to enjoy when their wages were higher. Debt is the buffer that has kept this political wolf at bay.

With the Left and organized labor discredited, who will lead the working class when they are laid off from their burger flipping jobs and have to default on their credit debt?

Answer: Pat Buchanan in 2000.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:14 - ID#26793)
Russia will limit ruble printing to "only" 15 billion in order to avoid hyperinflation

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:15 - ID#252150)
Leland@Thanks for Dizzard piece. After reading so many bullish forecasts
a few doubts were creeping in. I shorted AMAT near it's high to go along with my SPY short. Hoping that the S&P will still move higher so I can complete my position. I feel that we will see a significant retracement by Fri. The people sitting on big gains are going to realize that no matter what AG does on the 17th the equity mkts are going down, maybe hard. If he does'nt ease, there will be a major sell off & if he does, then the hot money will reverse back into the long bond.

Contrary indicator
(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:17 - ID#343185)
(mole) Libertarians are not the ones who are confused
....libertarians are confused republicans and almost always vote with them when they achieve office. anarchists are sloppy thinkers. totalitarians are sociopaths and socialists depends on the type. i would

argue that sweden is the most advanced nation on earth, and it is a socialist democracy. i lean towards a compassionate capitalist democracy, but i would maintain we are still early in our evolution, so who knows what the right mix is of political and social systems....

I do. Freedom is the best solution, and libertarians/anarchists are the ones who understand that. The "Republicrat" party has monopolized the ballot box in this country for most of this century, by rigging the election laws to favor themselves, but their time is coming to an end. Y2K will take all of the current parties down along with their creature, the federal government.

P.S. I notice that you didn't answer my challenge to place all of those political positions on your one-dimensional circular chart. I understand why: it can't be done.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:24 - ID#26793)
Traders expect Japanese and U.S. stocks to be lower this week

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:25 - ID#254321)
IMF's Fischer: Asia to 'recover' if no more financial shocks

For all Gold bug Tsunami surfers -- Everyone looking over their shoulder at mainland China, Brazil and Mexico? Since Brazil is in the limelight, I would guess that the next big financial shock, if it comes, will be elsewhere. There must be a Murphy's law variant that surprises tend to come from sources least expected.

I certainly took to heart Nick@C's comments yesterday ( I think ) about goods for sale in Australia at 10 cents on the dollar. China and other countries have excess capapacity in certain goods - we have survived the computer chip bust.

We are told that Brazil is in pretty good shape with the attention of the IMF -- the markets think so. But -- I would like to know why automobile purchases in Brazil are down over 40% if this is so. Around 450 of Fortune 500 companies are heavily invested in South America -- and we hear that 'US?' automotive sales by GM, Chrysler, Ford, etc are better than ever. Perhaps the slump in South American auto sales has not hit the official balance sheets. When it does -- we may have some commotion in the markets.

Comments, anyone? We gold bug Tsunami surfers must all stick together. I have no intention of being part of another Oct 97 wipeout, even if that means another opportunity to buy gold at fire sale prices. Not too many fire sale shocks left, IMHO -- clear sailing ( surfing? ) after that.

Sharefin: Any sign of Ping III, or son of Ping II?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:30 - ID#252150)
EJ@"Why has'nt deficit spending in Japan pulled them out of theit depression".
IMO, mainly because they are a much more egalitarian sociey. In Japan the top 20% of income earners make approx 9 times more than the bottom 20%, compare to almst 100 times as much in the U.S. Because they don't want to live in a cutthroat society, they did'nt have the stomach to make the tough decisions that would probably have resulted in 15% unemployment by now. Unfortunately, they have just postponed the inevitable. OTOH, they may have decided to take the rest of the world, particularly the U.S. down with them.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:35 - ID#26793)
He says gold is going to $400 this year and $800 next year

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:39 - ID#254321)
Relativity again!
Donald: Hi! I guess hyperinflation is in the eye of the beholder. What we would consider unacceptable inflation is ok to Russian officials. It is all relative to what you are experiencing when you have to rob Peter to pay Paul.

I thought the Russians were moving to the gold standard. I guess they decided that they would wait a bit -- let the gold go a little farther --if they wait long enough a few ounces might be enough for all of their rubles.

I should not make fun of the situation -- imagine what it would be like if we were Russians. This is like Germany after WW I -- the perfect breeding ground for a Fascist or similar government. I do not like this at all. We may be seeing the beginnings of something that will haunt our children -- a brand of Russian government possibly even less palatable than the former Communist one. Ronald Reagan may not have done our children and grandchildren a favor. And Star Wars did not work, anyway. Perhaps the Russian anger at us for creating this situation is partially justified. Just wait until the Russians start getting focused on foreign affairs again. How long did it take Hitler?

Donald: Have the Russians outlawed hoarding of American dollars yet? I'll bet that it is unenforceable, even by those who think they can do better than Yeltsin.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:48 - ID#26793)
Bearish mutual fund has moved to 11% gold in its portfolio, rest is cash and near cash.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:50 - ID#147211)
JTF re global problems
You know ,perhaps, better than I that the propaganda machine is overwhelming. If you are not capable of digging into the real facts, you are sucked into the massive bull. The rigging of election results, the rigging of the markets and the comments from the media on top of this will get the last dollar out of the public. Then , you know what will happen. There are so many more blivits of info out there than there are facts that if you don't look thru this, you will be raped. Good luck

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:52 - ID#257312)
Donald 18:35

Got a good laugh from that letter! That fellow would be right at home at Kitco.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:53 - ID#26793)
What is happening in Russia can happen here too. I like the idea someone posted here the other day for Russia. Just announce that all the gold you can find on government land is free. The place will be jumping in no time just like California in 1849. In 50 years you wouldn't be able to find a parking place anywhere in Siberia.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:56 - ID#26793)
In a couple of years they will have the guy that wrote it take Joe Battapaglia's spot on CNBC interviews.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:57 - ID#344326)
speaking of rigged elections....
Click on the third article down from Conspiracy Nations latest...By the way, the second article got my attention, that "depopulation" will start in Central America which is not from flooding but from purposely released pathogens. I can't say I believe it, but it's sure possible.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:57 - ID#348129)
@Donald 18:35
Good one! Yep, im sure 400. before year end will make the upcomming winter blizards feel much warmer. My interpretation of the market is we are stuck in this range rut, but, when the tires stop spinning, the upward moves will surprise everyone except the biggest
Gold bulls. There are too many factors comming into convergence now to stop the breakout from occuring........

(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:59 - ID#269469)
Y2K suppliers falling behind


Burt Blumert doesn't need to speculate. The
Burlingame, California, company he owns,
Camino Coin, has seen sales of precious metal
coins double from last year because of Y2K
jitters. "It's widespread now," Blumert said.

In May, Blumert began to run ads for a "Y2K Life
Preserver," a $3,500 collection of coins that
includes British gold sovereigns, silver dollars,
and pre-1965 silver dimes and quarters.

He markets the collection as a kind of financial
Y2K insurance policy, just in case banking
glitches or more widespread problems call for a
permanent currency.

"When people buy gold, they're dropping out,"
he said. "This is the ultimate dropout, when the
institutions themselves aren't working."


(Sun Nov 08 1998 18:59 - ID#252150)
JTF@So, Saddam is'nt weak anymore. I see that the well oiled propaganda
machine is working well, when even a well informed, intelligent individual like yourself has bought the "Saddam, the devil incarnate,
as dangerous as Hitler" spin.

Your Country has caused 20,000,000 innocent people to live in abject poverty for the past 7 yrs & is now well on the way to manufacturing consent to inflict even more privation upon them & extend their misery indefinitely.

BTW, have you ever read "Maunufacturing Consent" by Noam Chomsky, IMO, the greatest living American. Probably not. Most of the people capable of understanding it are too busy trying to make more money so that they can acquire more material things & the other 90% of your population are too well indoctrinated to believe it, even IF they had the intelligence to understand it.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:05 - ID#45173)
@JTF & James
I'm with ya. Brazil is "under control" for now. China is the place to watch. They cannot keep filling warehouses with unneeded stuff forever. Plus, they live an odd paradox between fussing over world opinion and taking action that completely discounts it.

Japan's "states" ( prefectures ) are bankrupt. The Japaese have been playing a shell game whereby the national debt is concealed by local government debt. A bankrupt government cannot bail out a bankrupt banking system without dipping deap into the personal savings of the Japanese people. Of course the Japanese people are not stupid and know this. Thus the closed wallets. Saving for a coming VERY rainy day. This is the crux of the political battle there that has yet to manifest itself.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:11 - ID#43349)
Time to sell? But hold Harmony

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:14 - ID#259260)
@ Cherokee
lgbito sayz.... They can exclude me, 404 me, boot me, fire me, retire, me...... but they will NEVER muzzle me!!!!!

We have too many ritalin drugged, valium repressed, "outspoken" among us..

I will remain among.those who are just not "civilized" in their rantings... not "nice" in their advocacies...not "PC" in their spoken and written word.

We have too many complacent drones and not enough high energy activists these days. I don't intend to become a drone. I'm willing to pay the price to avoid dronehood.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:16 - ID#45173)
Almost 20 years ago I had the privilege of interviewing Chomsky as editor of a paper years ago after he'd published "The Washington Connection" and called him at his home in Lexington, MA during the Gulf War. All these years later I have friends who work for the very media he criticizes. The news media see him as stating the obvious: that where you have concentrations of power and wealth you have control of information. As a contract at The New York Times said, "The Soviet Union had its Politburo and the US has it's major news organizations. So what?"

What's the alternative? It's a tough question.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:21 - ID#254321)
James: Forget the propaganda about Saddam. You are right that we have made Saddam a convenient target so that WJC can exercise his 'wrath' and punish Saddam 'for the benefit of the American people'. If you read my posts carefully you will realize that if Saddam has one weapon of mass destruction it might be enough to set off a war in the Mideast, complements of our ineptitude and misleading propaganda. In that sense I think he has regained his strength -- those hardened bunkers must have something in them, IMHO.

If Saddam has no weapons of mass destruction, and no delivery system even by foot, my argument still stands. If we attack Saddam unilaterally, instead of it being a local Arab matter we will rue the day.

It is unlikely the Arab nations will ever 'punish' Saddam like we are about to, as Arab public opinion is now in his favor.

There is a real possibility that if we start a skirmish with Saddam that we could trigger Saddam's lobbing something into Israel. This time Israel is far less likely to sit by and do nothing, given that they know that we do not have the resources that we had during Desert Storm. Or the support from other local nations.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:24 - ID#290172)
EJ re: "What is the alternative?"
the internet? {:- ) )

Charleston Gold Bug
(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:31 - ID#344389)
Saddam Hussein & Clinton: How I learned to love the bomb
Does anyone notice a difference in
the US response to Saddam, lately? The Wall Stree
Journal reported last week Iraq has three
NUCLEAR warheads, only lacking the fissile
CORE, which could be readily had on the
international arms market, one might think.
Worth pondering.....

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:36 - ID#344326)
A hell of a good post. I stole this from golden eagle's Gold Forum..
( curious ) Nov 08, 14:35

I could never understand how this system just keeps going. All numbers can be verified at URL below. And the numbers below REALLY make me wonder how it keeps going. Only way I can see to destroy this system is to quit borrowing.

In dollars all money issued and not retired: $457.469 Billion.
US Banks have: $ 44.058 Billion.
That is 10 pct. of all existing money.
The FED estimates that 2/3 circulates overseas. That would suggest that 1/3 ought to be here in US. This would be equivalent to $152.49 Billion. $100+ Billion seems to be missing.

In US: Demand deposits: $407.40 Billion
Other M-1 checkable deposits: $245.60
Other checkable deposits ( CD's ) of banks
and thrifts from M1, M2 and M3: $2,936.7
Total: $3,589.70

On 4-10-98 total required reserves for all banks was $47.403 billion. If you divide that into the total above it equals 1.3205%.

If you divide $100/1.3205 you get the leverage. This means that the leverage is 75.73:1. But that is not all. There is no reserve requirement for savings or CD's, so they can be levered, theoretically, to infinity.

I am a simple old man, but not yet senile. Do the letters LTCM register? I read various numbers about their leverage and we will never know, probably. But I would place the banks in the same league 75:1 is pretty good. As a matter of fact, what is the difference between a CB and LTCM? It is quite clear, now, how close we came to disaster. If you are not petrified, you do not yet understand. I'll bet AG had more in his pants than his hand.

It is quite plain to see that when I put $100 in the bank, only $1.32 is available if everyone wanted their money at the same time. I don't like that. Does Y2K ring a bell?
On the other hand, when I deposit $100 the banks can turn it into $7500. I ask my learned friends, does this make sense?

Just a few minutes ago the US National Debt was $5,562,276,965,047.12. There was a smidgen over 6 billion people living in this world. By my calculation that means the US owes every person in world about $927. But they say, the debt is meaningless. Explain that to me. Don't worry, the checks in the mail. But can someone explain to me how you can pay a 5.5 Trillion debt with 457 billion dollars? The good news is here ( if my decimals are right ) , we are only leveraged 12:1. Are you petrified yet?

If every CB in the world can or has leveraged at a 75:1 ratio, the accumulated numbers must be staggering. Is it worth anyones time to investigate their CB? Is there a case to be made for inflation here? I think so. But that is another time.

What would you rather have? Three $100 bills or an ounce of gold? It feels so nice and is so pretty.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:37 - ID#45173)
The most read sources of online journalism are the established print and broadcast outlets -- NYT, WSJ, Wash Post, etc. Until Internet-born news organizations can afford their own network of new gatherers, we'll get the same news. They will be able to afford them when advertisers pay the big bucks for space on their sites, and that doesn't happen until the readership gets up there. Catch 22. Besides, the major news orgs are publically traded corporations. That has an impact on a reporter's and editor's perception of reality -- career reality, that is.

Minimally, business and economy journalists should not be allowed to own stocks. In fact most don't. They don't make enough money.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:40 - ID#290172)
Mozel re: "Where are the numbers coming from?"

( 1 ) Oanda Classic Currency Converter: daily currency quotes-hi, low, median, fixed on x number of prices
( 2 ) SDR quotes from Xennon Labs and IMF
( 3 ) Gold SDR: from reasoning, :if gold is a currency, why not use it as a currency?" Dialog w/ myself.
( 4 ) Calculated fields: hard quotes Oanda and IMF, Xennon; simple standard formulas for currency conversion.
( 5 ) The only difference from SOP WAS the USE of a GOLD WEIGHT as a CURRENCY.
( 6 ) KISS
All truth, in the long run, is only common sense clarified.
Thomas Henry Huxley

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:40 - ID#153110)
@What Is The Alternative
Abolish the corporation. This government was founded to secure the natural rights of man; it was perverted by lawyers using English Statute common-law. See Whose law ? at

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:41 - ID#72206)
@ JTFIt is unlikely the Arab nations will ever 'punish' Saddam like we are about to,
"It is unlikely the Arab nations will ever 'punish' Saddam like we are about to,",,
Ypu are not punishing Saddam, you are commiting the worst kind of facism on 20,000,000 people...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:51 - ID#290172)
OOps...Mozel, re: "for this harmonization to take place?"
For a brief period minute of time, their were disparate agendas that vectored--butterfly wings. The heavy comitted hitters AT THIS MOMENT are ( 1 ) Europe and --the other folk with money-- [2] the Orient. BIS opened AN OFFICE in Hong Kong! How much did we hear about THAT in the 'public mumblings of the networks"?

Mike Sheller@Hello there! One thinks it not that they wish to bring the
dollar down, rather they wish to remove the dollar yoke. The oxen have come to realize their worth.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:52 - ID#242325)
Jude Wanniski on Iraq. This Republican supply sider has the courage to speak truth to power. The Iraq ussue has nothing to do with weapons: Israel has hundreds of nukes and vast stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. No the bottom like is that the US does not want to lift sanctions until a US puppet government comes to power. It is that simple. Towards thia end all manner of atrocities are permitted. Includng the death of hundreds of thousands of civilians because of the sanctions. Not bad for a nation that claims to defend human rights around the world.

Related Links:

"Scott Ritter's Private
War" ( excerpt ) --The New

Need Grant Money for
Your Rebellion?
Send Proposal to U.S.

Where Did Saddam Come
November 4, 1998

Memo to Saddam Hussein

Memo To: President Saddam Hussein
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Free advice

Now that the elections are behind us in the United States, President Clinton does not have
to worry about being accused of bombing Iraq in order to divert attention from his
personal difficulties. It looks like there will be a big push from our Political Establishment
to apply force, no matter what the UN Security Council says. You dont seem to realize
that the only way you can get the sanctions lifted is by developing broad-based support in
the UN General Assembly for the idea that you have done everything you can possibly
think of to rid your country of these sanctions, but the United States has demonstrated
again and again that no matter what you do, the sanctions will remain.

The people of the United States are fair-minded, Mr. President, but they pay scant
attention to what is going on in your part of the world, which leaves them vulnerable to
arguments of the Establishment forces here that you have always been a monster and will
always remain a monster. So much intellectual and political capital has been invested in
you being a monster, that you can only overcome that demonization -- as unfair as it seems
to you -- by getting a great many sympathizers in the General Assembly to openly question
U.S. treatment of Iraq, and thereby force our Political Establishment to reconsider. We
have the power to do just about anything we wish to do in the world, but our leaders
know that there is only just so much bullying and propaganda they can get away with. It is
a disgrace that our Congress has publicly authorized $97 million to be spent on an
attempted overthrow of your regime. This is an act of war and a violation of all
international principles, but we are the Global Sovereign and therefore can do as we

It has been clear to me since 1994 that your military maneuvers and rhetorical blusterings
were the product of your own frustration in getting the sanctions lifted. Ive also done
enough research to understand the rationale behind the invasion of Kuwait. Almost no
American journalist will bother with this kind of due diligence, because once our power
elite decides on a common enemy, there is little point in contesting it. The electorate has to
become concerned enough to make it clear to the political leaders that they insist upon a
policy shift. You should understand this very well, because you are the power elite in
Iraq, and will not put up with any internal criticism. Here, I have some leeway in being
able to play devils advocate for you and others we call "rogues." Your ambassador to the
United Nations, Nizar Hamdoon, has done an extraordinary job of holding off these dark
forces, but you need more help from other Islamic countries in particular in making the
case for reasonableness on the part of the only Superpower. Ive been doing the best I
can, but Im only one little guy from New Jersey, without portfolio, but with a website.
Here is a memo I sent the editor of the New Yorker magazine on Monday, regarding the
November 11 story on Scott Ritter.

* * * * *

November 2, 1998

Memo To: David Remnick
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Peter Boyer on Scott Ritter

Marvelous piece ["Scott Ritters Private War," The New Yorker, 11-9-98] in that while it
seemingly supports Ritter, it also makes it clear why he has been a problem for the
government, another Ollie North cowboy type. Boyer does have some major errors in the
story, which involve claims that UNSCOM found secret weapons caches. Nizar Hamdoon
told me in January that the last weapons unearthed were in November 1991 and that no
weapon was found without the assistance of the Iraqi government. The Boyer piece
suggests that nuclear finds were made with the help of a September 1991 U-2 operation.
My understanding was that Baghdad never denied having a nuke program, except that the
nuke plant the Israelis blew up in 1983 was really only a power plant -- which we have
since learned probably is true. Boyer also says the Russian chief inspector found the
missile site with VX. Thats not true. UNSCOM was shown the site in 1991 and could
have gone back to it at any time to poke around for VX. My sources tell me it is extremely
improbable that the facts in the case point to the weaponization of VX. That is, it is almost
certainly true that Iraq tried to develop a VX weapon during the war with Iran, but that it
failed. The Swiss and French reports confirm the dubious nature of that VX report.

My involvement in keeping up with this story goes back to my suspicion in 1990 that
Saddam would not have gone into Kuwait if he believed we would complain about it. I
only joined in support of the Gulf War when the Saudi ambassador persuaded me that Iraq
was preparing to invade his country after securing Kuwait. I now believe this was
baloney. The investigative reporting now indicates our State Department blundered by
giving Saddam the green light, and that King Fahd at first opposed doing anything about
Saddam because he thought the Emir of Kuwait had it coming to him, having cheated
Saddam. The story gets more and more interesting the more you get into it. Saddam is not
a nice man, Id agree, but we did back him in the Iran war and it is silly to say we didnt
know about his biological and chemical efforts when we helped him in those programs.
There is also no evidence he ever gassed his own people, no matter how many times Abe
Rosenthal and Bill Safire insist he did.

Finally, if you go back far enough, you will find that the Iran-Iraq war that led to this
mess would not have occurred if President Richard Nixon had not taken the U.S. and the
world off the gold standard. You smile, but I kid you not.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:54 - ID#34883)
Watch out for Chomsky

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:56 - ID#45173)
Anyone want me to post some big pay-for stuff? This one from Barron's is good...
Too Soon to Relax? - Cheryl Strauss Einhorn

With the stock market revitalized and the bulls euphoric, some technical analysts still insist that 1999 could be "like 68 years ago."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:57 - ID#227305)
Thanks to both of you.And all along I believed the creation and the destruction of money was much more measurable.I am beginning to see why so many on this site are raising hell about it.Still,I've more to learn.


Can anyone explain to me why curriencies are bought and sold . Why it is so important to defend a currency from attacks of "shortsellers"?How does one recognize that a particular currency is vulnerable---- overvalued?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:59 - ID#401460)

The US has the big gun to back up it's worthless $.

And by the way I think you forgot to add into your leverage calculations insurance cos., pension funds, brokerage firms, all major corps., and just about everyone else. The general public is leverage almost as bad with credit card debt, 125% first and second mortgages, etc. etc.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 19:59 - ID#254321)
Fascism? I don't know
arby: I'm not sure about the terminology, but WJC is dangerous in foreign affairs as he distills everything into whether it can be used to get American votes -- I do agree that is very much like what Hitler did. What worries me is that WJC is just devious enough to retain his popularity under the worst scenarios -- such as Saddam lobbing something into Israel, or trying weapons of mass destruction in the US. Could it be that WJC is goading Saddam on into performing a terrorist act so that WJC or his successor can declare martial law?

It seems that WJC does not understand what makes a great statesman -- despite his first class education. Isn't it interersting that he is being compared to Nixon, and that he does not come close to Nixon on foreign affairs, and what he has done with xxxgate is much worse than what Nixon ever did?

What WJC has is the ability to mould public opinion like a master -- and he still controls the press. We can have a liar for president -- everyone knows that -- and it is still ok. Amazing.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:01 - ID#45173)
The NY Times covered Iraq somewhat fairly today
( snip )

"The last time the United States threatened force, in February, Clinton spoke apocalyptically about the dangers of Iraqi nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and said the United States would go to war to protect the inspectors' "full and unfettered access" to any sites in Iraq.

"The serious threat Hussein poses was overblown in the effort to sell the possible attack, some senior American officials now say. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen appeared on television brandishing a bag of sugar in an effort to describe how small a dose of biological and chemical weapons it would take to threaten Americans, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Henry H. Shelton, expressed serious reservations about the ability of the Pentagon to destroy such easily hidden and reconstituted weapons from the air."
Lemme know if you want to see the whole thing.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:05 - ID#250298)
DBog...You asked about MIQ on Montreal Exchange...
I like it. I bought some at US$0.12. I still like it. For info try:
at lemetropol go to Midas table, select thread ( at bottom of page ) ,
go to MIQ ( or Mirandor, I forgot title of entry ) .
Good luck....

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:06 - ID#219363)
Watch the cash flow in relationship to imports and exports for "account deficits". If imports are really cheap and exports aren't selling well because they're too expensive, that's a sure bet the country will devalue to inflate the price on imports and make exports more attractive. It's kind of like shipping our your own populations wealth to foreigners so they'll want your stuff, it's a sell-out w/ long-term advantage. Look for low levels of foreign exchange reserves. Check out what the currencies of the countries major markets are doing. Watch for bad loans that result from easy money, a large real estate boom in previous years is a good indicator. Right now it's probably a good idea to watch anyone who has seen an inflow of foreign capital as it will no doubt be leaving, and pay particular attention to countries that rely heavilly on exports of commodities like oil, gas, and gold.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:06 - ID#288231)


sniff...sniff....what if we gave you xanax?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:07 - ID#45173)
I tried reading the stuff on the link you posted but I can't figure out what the guys is talking about. Can you net it out for me? Is he saying that Noam is an apologist for the commies?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:10 - ID#254321)
Your post about WJC and Saddam -- See you all later!
EJ: I saw that too. Interesting that WJC's military people are disagreeing with the Commander in Chief, isn't it? My guess is that the political 'yes' men are mouthing WJC's opinions, but those that have sense ( and experience ) know better. Let's hope that the saner heads prevail.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:10 - ID#288231)


the media.....admittedly so...same as gov'ts go.....

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:13 - ID#31868)
Journalism is a dirtbags banquet in the United States today...the Internet does provide
a large cross section of people from around the world with the ability to discuss matters without the interference of the government, the media, etc...people talking to people...

What a concept...people talking directly to people...sheesh...who woulda thunk it?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:13 - ID#34883)
I'd say thats about it; the author has had a long running debate on alt.politics.libertarian where he critiques Chomsky. I'm not familiar with Chomsky myself, though James A. Donald is an impressive defender of liberty.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:14 - ID#344326)
@ Highrise
Just for clarification. That post was not written by me. Nice point about leverage in the population. I wonder if CB's deep down realize that this fiat thingy will crumble at some point. I suppose the ones that do keep their gold. Which leads me to believe that maybe the U.S. IS buying gold. It just WOULD be prudent! Isn't George Bush on the board of Newmont?

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:19 - ID#306416)
So That's How They Keep the Fiat Currency Scam Going !!!!
From: ( Irene A. Mystery )

"A Horse of a Different Color..."

The tribal wisdom of the Dakota Indians, passed on from one generation to the next, says that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

However, in modern business, because of the heavy investment factors to be taken into consideration, often other strategies have to be tried with dead horses, including but not limited to the following:

1. Buying a stronger whip.

2. Changing riders.

3. Threatening the horse with termination.

4. Appointing a committee to study the horse.

5. Arranging to visit other sites to see how they ride dead horses.

6. Lowering the standards so that dead horses can be included.

7. Appointing an intervention team to re-animate the dead horse.

8. Creating a training session to increase the rider's load share.

9. Re-classifying the dead horse as living-impaired.

10. Change the form so that it reads: "This horse is not dead."

11. Hire outside contractors to ride the dead horse.

12. Harness several dead horses together for increased speed.

13. Donate the dead horse to a recognized charity, thereby deducting its full original cost.

14. Providing additional funding to increase the horse's performance.

15. Do a time management study to see if the lighter riders would improve productivity.

16. Purchase an after-market product to make dead horses run faster.

17. Declare that a dead horse has lower overhead and therefore performs better.

18. Form a quality focus group to find profitable uses for dead horses.

19. Rewrite the expected performance requirements for horses.

20. Promote the dead horse to a supervisory position.

21. Apply for a government subsidy to retrain dead horses.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:41 - ID#219363)
Final Party
I'm beginning to think that the markets are finally starting to see the writing on the wall. Very simply, the US has seen great growth, and just in time for the end of the party we took the party global complete with a new vocabulary. Investors heavy with riches rushed into the new markets without even knowing what they were about, never taking the time to get past what was being fed to them from one of the mutual fund companies projecting astronomical growth, which was delivered on in the following years. Then somewhere along the way somebody said, yeah, okay, now what, and we started consolidating as foreign economies that may not have been ready for the capital started showing signs of waste, getting a little too used to easy investment money. So investors took to the exits in grand form, crushing fledgling economies that were expecting their invitation to the world party to be good well into the future, and economies began to tank. Then the consolidated investors in the states started pumping that cash back into the US markets as did foreign investors who didn't want to miss out on the US and European parties, the dollar soared, the Treasury dumped debt on anybody who would take it, especially foreign investors who were their newest market at a time when things were looking a little dicey. And we all partied, rich on high dollars, low cost imports, massive amounts of money in the US economy from all over the world, low inflation, low unemployment, and soaring equity valuations. And then it all started to change, the bond market is showing some weakness, bears took a little bite out of the equity markets, profits are starting to show weakness, and the dollar took a big dump into the drink, sending foreign investors to the exits. One cut by Mr. Greenspan and the party is back on track, one last blast, a funky little get down into the late hours of morning, one final jam before the fat lady sings us all to a drunken slumber to await the hang-over that is to come. Party on fools, let's boogie, let's jam, "And somebody said burn baby burn ...", break out the glasses, let's have one final toast to a market above 9000, turn it up!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:44 - ID#218222)
Somewhat bearish looking dollar chart!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 20:56 - ID#401460)
crazytimes - US buying Gold?

Excellent point, we should not assume they are a bunch of village idiots raised by a village, that is exactly what they could be doing. I think we should assume that there is some kind of back up plan to a worthless dollar besides a big gun.

However, AG said something recently to the effect that the trick is to simulate the power of Gold.

I don't know what to think anymore. We here at Kitco now know so much about what is going on - what is controlled and not controlled - that we realize that they are going to do darn well what they please and when they want to do it.

Therefore, the question we should be asking ourselves is, what would we do if we were in their shoes?

I would make money on every move in this market, playing every volitile move that I new I could generate. Gold is at the bottom, therefore I would play it all the way back up - calls then puts then calls then puts while remaining long in NEM at a below 20 cost basis all of the time.

If I had to create a little inflation, to get those results I would lower interest rates, and if I had to raise the price of oil off the bottom to accomplish the above I would have a little war - but first I would have several threats of war so that my puts and calls would work out for me.

I would be done buying all of my PM if I were them and now I would make it increase in value as my currency was questioned. The question is what currency is theirs? Yen, Euro, US$, or the Chinese $??


(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:02 - ID#344239)


(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:09 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I have searched and searched but I am
having one heck of a time finding national stats on voter registration and such...plenty of state and country info...but not national...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:09 - ID#386245)
G'day all
@12:52 Aussie gold index -19.9 ( -1.65% ) to 1188.1
@Squirrel--read your 13:49 on deflation etc. to the missus. She said to tell you she loved it.

@mooney/rhody--the discussion about $25,000 bills being used to stop bank runs etc. was actually Auric's idea. I was just commenting that it would cause severe 'banana republic' type problems.

@Envy--excellent 12:50 on deflation!!

I am still convinced that we are in for a deflationary depression. I see the evidence of the early stages all around me. Mooney--my comments about hyperinflation are not at odds with deflation. They are the sides of the same coin. The gubbmint, in its great wisdom, could overshoot to the opposite extreme when trying to counteract deflation.
I have been trying to think of the name of the book from whence I 'borrowed' the ten steps. I think it was called 'Voluntary Simplicity' but can't find it on my bookshelf. Well worth a read. See below.
I have a ten point check list on my bulletin board. I see it every day. It is not original. I copied it. If I can remember the author, I'll let you know.

1 ) Don't shop
2 ) Live within your means
3 ) Take care of what you have
4 ) Wear it out
5 ) Do it yourself
6 ) Anticipate your needs
7 ) Research value,quality,durability and multiple use
8 ) Get it for less
9 ) Buy used
10 ) Follow the steps of this program.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:23 - ID#237299)
Squirrel & Chas @ fineness stampings on gold
Chas:I just logged on and noted an error in your posting to Squirrel.

In America, the National Gold and Silver Marking Act is a series of revisions of the original law of 1906. The revisions were in 1961, 1976, and 1981. Your comments about the 1/2 karat fudge factor, although at one time correct, are out of date.

The law, in all it's forms, has never required a manufacturer to stamp *any* quality mark; it is not illegal to make a coin or a piece of jewelry and simply hand it to someone telling them it is 14 karat or 24 karat. However, if a quality mark is present, then the current law also requires a makers mark or hallmark be applied as well since a quality mark without a makers mark is meaningless.

The prior law did allow 1/2 karat deviation for pieces without solder and 1 karat deviation for items with solder.

The current law is much more stringent. The fineness shall be no less than 3/1000th without solder and 7/1000 with solder.

The makers mark or hallmark must be a registered trademark. This makes it legally traceable back to origin.

Theme Investor
(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:27 - ID#317358)
Iraq Dictator

My sister calls him Sodamn Insane

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:33 - ID#45173)
Update: November Interest Rates Change Poll
Please vote on how you think Greenspan will effect rates in November.

46 votes
26% lower rates
72% unchanged
2% raise rates

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:41 - ID#31868)
Ladies and Gentlemen...step right this way...and see the Great...the Marvelous...
The Incomparable...Greenspandini...I'm sorry Sir...he does not take anything but gold and silver coin for Readings...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:41 - ID#153110)
The federal makes the regulations for the "time, manner, & place" for federal elections and these were expanded by various Voting Rights Acts and the Motor Voter Act, but what they call the states administers them. So, what state info turned up in general on the % of all possible voters which are registered ?

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:43 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...a friend aided me in the quest...below may help...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:45 - ID#18357)
interesting item about gold
this is my first post, been lurking full time for a long time. its easy to forget that the banks need gold almost as much as the human body needs blood. here is sentence or two from a book entitled "the merchant bankers" by Joseph Wechsberg, 1966., regarding the Hambros dynasty

pg67., "It is a monentary metal, not a commodity; its value is not backed by the needs of modern industry; no one really uses gold except goldsmiths and dentists. But since time immemorial it has been the one basic international currency all over the world. Everybody respects it and wants it. The communists have no use for capitalism but they value gold, the very symbol of capitalism. The world has changed; mining technologies have been improved; dictators, economists and certain bankers ( such as Dr. Hjalmar Schacht ) have demonstrated that one can manage, for a while at least, without gold, but people always return to it as the essence of permanence.
Goethe's words from Faust, "nach golde drangt/am golde hangt/doch alles" ( everything crowds after gold, is devoted to gold ) are as timely as ever."

i believe that instead of trying to find examples of financial instruments that will go bad as reasons for gold to go up, we should all be finding timely reasons for gold not to go down, based on its own merit. the sea can wash over the rock or lap gently at its base, but the rock stays firm as it is. gold is what it is, a store of value, a representation of wealth.

i think that gold will go up because it is not down at new lows now. for all that has been done to tarnish gold, why isn't it at 250 or lower. it surely can see ahead, whats keeping it up above 250? those answers will help construct a positive case for gold.


(Sun Nov 08 1998 21:52 - ID#252150)
JTF@You're right . Every Country including "demoncrazies" have a propaganda
machine. What really bothers me is the way that the average individual sits in front of his TV, in a semi-vegetative state & believes everything, long ago having lost the ability to think for himself. As long as they can have their beer & pizza they are happy with the system. When the time comes that the "bread & circuses" are cut off-- all hell will break loose.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:02 - ID#413109)
Have been hoping to avoid this
It's truly a shame that someone as informative a contributor, when it comes to the
subject that's close to our hearts ( GOLD ) , "Old Gold", feels free to dig up information
from his one sided, biased, writers and philosophers, to use up Bart's Bandwidth
to try to influence this audience with one sided political views.

May I remind Mr. Old Gold, that Saddam did not send bouquets of flowers, when
he fired missiles, nor was his rhetoric terribly friendly, nor did this little power-house,
name Israel, which Mr. Old Gold feels deserves constant bashing, even have the
"permission" to retaliate, while being attacked.
May I further remind him that Hussein is a very wealthy individual, in his own right,
using his country's resources to further his personal wealth, at the expense of the
starving populace, while his elite forces are eating and living a vastly different life style.

Building edifices in his honor, and living and hiding quarters, fit for kings and pharoes,
while the masses go hungry, is not my idea of a hero figure, that deserves defending.
The missiles Saddam, wishes to arm, with nuclear and biological and chemical goodies, should
be stationed off shore Florida, I wonder if then, Mr. Old Gold, would voice his opinions
in the same fashion.

Why doesn't he stick to what he's good at, and what this forum is all about!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:03 - ID#252150)
JTF@War in the ME. In order to have a war, you need combatants.
How can you consider Iraq to be a combatant? Saddam is about as dangerous as Fidel Castro. How many missiles did they lob into Israel? How many did they kill? While I agree that 1 was too many, I don't think that the 6 or 8 that died ( at least a couple from heart attacks ) puts Saddam in the major leagues, as a potential threat to the entire world. And now their puny "WOMD" have been reduced to probably less firepower than the mafia could unleash in NYC.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:04 - ID#34883)
The Lord knows what we may find, dear lass,
And the Deuce knows what we may do-
But we're back once more on the old trail, our own trail, the out trail,
We're down, hull-down, on the long trail, the trail that is always new.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:07 - ID#31868)

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:14 - ID#237299)
Just as a point of curiosity. On what do you base your intimate knowlege of Saddam's checking account balance, his possession, ( or lack thereof ) , of those henious weapons, or exactly *who* is starving his people?

Couldn't be that the media has had it's way with you- could it?

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:20 - ID#295111)
The Stock Market Bubble

The Federal Reserve announced a short while ago that he money supply is growing at a

phenominal rate of 16%. This is the highest growth rate since 1982. However, I believe the money

being created today is being used to purchase financial assets instead financing businesses to

foster growth. We are seeing "assest" inflation. Stocks are way too overpriced.

Even as the economy slips into a recession, stock prices keep rising because investors ( mainly

baby-boomers planning for retirement ) keep pumping money into them.

This is what I call a real stock market bubble. It will end in disaster one day. People just keep buying

these overpriced stocks thinking they will be able to sell them at higher prices.

Stock market analysts are well aware of the problem, but are not giving the public at large ample

warning especially at this critical time. I hear constantly that investors will not panic when a correction occurs in the

stock market. They say polls show investors will not withdraw money out of mutual funds. I hear

this line so often it is like a broken record now. The reason they say so is that the market will

collapse BIG TIME should even a ***small*** group of baby boomers start to withdraw money from

mutual funds.

The irony of it all is that these same baby boomers MUST eventually withdraw funds as they

approach the retirement years. The the market will ( 99.999% chance it will ) collapse anyway.

Stock markets never go up forever. It's not as easy as Wall Street would like you to believe. It

isn't typical for money to be given away on Wall Street, but with the Dow Jones average increasing

at a 19% rate since 1982, it seems like it.

If you can time the market, great for you. But only a select few will be able to bail out in time.

My advice, make sure you have at least 10-15% of your investments in gold and gold stocks.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:30 - ID#153110)
@T1 @Wow By my rough calculations (.75 of total registered X .4 voting) this is a
government with a 15% mandate.

Bully Beef
(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:31 - ID#260119)
Saddam is quite simply a mad man.Look at what he has spent to deify himself.
How many palaces?This is the man that the U.S. armed to curb the fundamentalists in Iran in 1980 or thereabout.It took them 15 years to find out that he was vainglorious genocidal maniac.Right wing fundamental religious types in all countries cause us more grief than any others.The notion that the "only GOD" is on our side has killed more people than anything. Disarm Saddam and let the Western media ignor him. His own people will take care of him when he is no longer newsworthy in our countries. He must lose his ability to perpetuate the myths that legitimize his militarized society.What a hopeless situation.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:35 - ID#295111)
Bully Beef - Sadaam
I don't quite fully understand why the U.S. kept this mad man alive. If I was in charge, I would have strung him up like Mussolini.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:36 - ID#153110)
@bully beef Godless Stalin, Hitler, & Pol Pot contradict your views & BTW
Saddam is a godless socialist, too.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:40 - ID#227305)
When the equity
markets were racing upwards ,was it because the money supply was trying to catch up with the amount of available goods and services?In spite of the enthusiasm which helped to lift the market,was it the extra foreign money sloshing into the market that boosted its value?Now that a certain amount of risk is perceptible in the U.S. markets,by lowering rates,won't the foreign capital leave for other instruments.Is this the threat of the euro?Lowering rates seems to be a catch 22.Is there no other safe haven - other than gold- these monies will run to.At this point, most seem to be looking for yeild,not safe haven.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:40 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' gulp and a puff to I WAS close yesterday eh...
Date: Sat Nov 07 1998 20:23
tolerant1 ( I really think they should say Clintler is President of only part of the USA...I mean ) ID#31868: 42% turned out to vote and he slid into the office once again, so I figure that at best 20% of the population supports him, but only as long as he keeps those monthly checks arriving at their dwellings...

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:42 - ID#295111)
I was taking with an Iraq citizen a couple of months ago.
Basically, he told me that Sadaam had a problem feeding his people. So what he did was round up as many men as he could and sent off to war know quite well they would die there. Famine problem cleared.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:44 - ID#31868)
Tabtalus, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...your post yesterday regarding the individual
from San Diego re: Speaker of the House...the boy is one pancake shy of a full stack...what a dimwit...and I think we can change your comment to I've found the enemy, and he lives in San Diego...yup...uh huh...yikes!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:46 - ID#153110)
@T1 Yeah, and it makes demoncrazy all the more Mad as a form of government.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:47 - ID#31868)
Tantalus, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
Sorry about the typo in your name...oops!

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:51 - ID#284255)
Email Chatter
Civil Contingency Unit For 'Dire Emergencies'

This is my ( admittedly simplistic ) take on things as a Brit expat living in
America - and my views tend to vary as new factors emerge or I give things a
little more thought ( OK, I let optimism rear it's ugly head! ) .

Washington DC has always been gun shy with coming clean on issues. So has
the UK, but although we have the Official Secrets Act and 'D' notices which
curtail the freedom of the press and media, it's quite obvious that the USA
is more locked down. So ask yourself "why would things change now" with
possibly the worst calamity to hit the human race looming on the horizon?
There are simply too many financial and societal implications for DC to tell
the truth at this point in time.

The markets ( Japan a lost cause, USA - trillions in debt ) at the moment are
*really* close to meltdown, they are being artificially manipulated - no
question. DC does not want a run on banks - hence keep quiet, downplay the
situation. For every $100 dollars in your checking account your average bank
has less than $2 in currency. When the general public wakes up the bank run
issue is very likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy whether DC tells
the truth on Y2K or not - especially if there is a financial meltdown in
late '98 or '99. Yet DC *is* failing the people by not realistically
addressing the situation - damned if I do, damned if I don't...

USA = 280 million to feed, huge country, agriculture extremely
mechanised/computerised, dependent totally on trucking and rail for the food
chain ( calculated incidentally to be 1500 miles back in the sixties ) , great
extremes of weather and access to water and viable growing land,
logistically a nightmare if things go up the swannee.

UK = 50 million to feed, plenty of water, much smaller country, still a
fishing industry ( just ) , no hurricanes, no real extremes of heat or cold,
not too many guns floating about, you get the picture. Bottom line is the
Brit's have got less to lose financially and more to gain by getting a head
start in the "hey this is real" stakes.

The UK is a pretty sturdy little ship and the logistics of muddling through
if things get really bad are not in the same league as the USA will have to
cope with. But hey, we do like a good riot every now and then, it's going to
be bad everywhere...

I can't comment on Canada but it looks like they are getting their act
together - printing currency, mobilising the reserves etc. - but it does get
bloody cold up there - especially in January 2000.

What can you do? - keep asking questions, write to your local newspapers,
call talk radio stations, tell your friends and family, but *don't* analyse
this thing to death and not ( or leave it too late ) make your own financial,
physical and mental preparations.

Maybe I've got this all totally wrong - I really hope so, but I'm not
betting my life on it.

Good luck, Andy


This was posted awhile back on the Y2k Today forum. I can not
vouch for the truthfulness of the statement, nevertheless the
poster was brave, providing his name, the company's name, etc.
The shocker paragraph is this one:

"Another area to consider is a communique the NRC delivered to
regional utility power management companies regarding nuclear
power plants. A contact in administration with Savanna Power, a
Southern Company utility, revealed to me info on a confidential
communique to utility power companies by the NRC. The NRC plans
to shutdown all nuclear power plants coast to coast for fear of
the unknown regarding internal Y2K failures. That means a 20% to
25% hit on the grid before any other failures. Add to that the
restriction of offline backup generation due to deregulation &
you have a worrisome scenario."

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:54 - ID#31868)
ROR, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Clintler and determination eh...Hmmmmmm...
I would not call FBI files and the open use of them along with the IRS audits clearly utilized by this administration as determination...oh no ROR...I call that high crimes and misdemeanors...yup...lying under oath...redefining fellatio...ah call it determination I call it criminal BS of the highest order...yup...I do...uh huh...

As to Reagan and Imus...completely different subjects eh...this is this, and that is criminal BS...nuff said...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:57 - ID#45173)
Gollum: enjoyed your write-up in Abelson's column this week
"Between two hurricanes." That's how a fellow we know who's a very sharp investor views the current market climate. Even though he espies another storm on the far horizon, he's "friendly" toward the market and expects the advance to continue possibly through the end of the first quarter of '99.

His reasons for the positive stance are the usual ones: a strong gathering of investment flows, a very benign Fed policy and the sweep of the rise. And there's no question that the ascent from the depths of October has been not only spectacular in the amount of ground regained but also extraordinary in its reach. Truly, a "dream rally."

( snip )

But we also have no quarrel with the expectation of our investor friend that both the market and the economy will roll over as winter turns to spring. A huge credit bubble has been pierced, he reasons, and ultimately, a wave of credit contraction will overwhelm both rate cuts and the stock market. Sounds plausible to us.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 22:58 - ID#317211)
@Tantalus Rex - a large bow to the king
Enjoyed your skunk post here. Have had an encounter between my junkyard dogs and a pissed off raccoon here. He walked gently into the fair nite as we slept.

To All Canadians here: Love your country & people, and am gratified in the recent rebound in the Canadian Peso. Your Au mining companies are great investments, but your Peso exchange rate has been killin' me.
Please tell your monetary officials to stop selling YOUR Gold, and maybe buy some instead.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:00 - ID#254288)
The Derivatives Mess, by Robert Chapman/The International Forecaster

From USA Gold and a bit more pertinate to gold investments than opinions of "The Mideast's Badboy"; from whereever they arise.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:00 - ID#295111)
@Tolerant1 - Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya
But, I'm gonna quit the puff'in. I watched 60 minutes today about cigarrette smoke and how they increase your chances of having penil erection problems. I want to be able to keep hitting the G-Spot.

Tantalus Rex
(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:06 - ID#295111)
I think the Canadian Gov't has a scret backup plan when it comes to Gold. They think we have enough in the ground here. So when we get that gold crisis. the gov't will "STEAL" the gold from all the gold miners. Or they confisgate it. Well, stealing and confisgating really means the same thing anyway.

So maybe the gold mines may not be that good an investment. Gov'ts will tax the sh!t out of them when push comes to shove.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:11 - ID#31868)
Tantalus Rex, Namaste' gulp...puff and ice cream sticks and tape to ya...60 Minutes
huh...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...get a second opinion...most folks I know don't have a problem until someone tells them they to ya...

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:33 - ID#219363)
That was about as scary as scary gets, thanks for posting the link to the article. Makes me afraid to even purchase options *smile*. It's kind of hard to get blood out of someone when they don't have any left to give. I've never started a business with bankruptcy in the back of my mind as an exit strategy, just isn't moral or right, and that's obviously what some of these folks have to be doing if they're leveraged 300:1, kind of the old "earthquake insurance" scam.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:33 - ID#343449)


saddam fired his last missle.....the 39'th.....
with a binary message as a warhead....
it was a binary bio dummy.....fired as
a warning to stop....the us immediately
declared victory.....that is the only reason
we suddenly stopped....he has them....and
he'll use them soon.....oil to the moon
very and my calls....we're
waiting for the missles to fall...and they
soon........don't buy crude calls.....they may
well go to the moon and heaven forbid anyone
being aboard when we hit $50bbl in a day......
each option could be worth 100k, or much more.....
or expire worthless....meohmy....i think i'll buy...

john disney....your opinion on the taskmasters is right
on! carry on.......carry on........

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:34 - ID#43460)
Optomists! 41% think the POG will double! As for me I think it will stay below $350

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:42 - ID#43460)
This is a page I just found. The only thing golden is its color.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:48 - ID#284255)
gagnrad - Optimists! 99.9% think that Y2k will not effect them.
I have yet to prove them wrong.
But time will tell.

Email Chatter:
Well folks Y2k has hit prime time in Canada. The CBC is the National
Television station in here. And they said it could be the Ice Storm
revisited. There was no soft sell, with interviews from the Army and RCMP
saying they will be preparing for the worst and that is total blackout.
They also interviewed Ontario Hydro bigwig and he would not deny having
problems. The Army Rep said that it would be difficult to plan for
disruption of "everything". A pretty sobering clip
I am sure Northern Minnesota is "bloody cold" in the depths of the
winter. My sister is in Edmonton with her family and friends. The Auditor
General issued a warning for the Alberta government that there is a high
risk of failure to the power generation grid ( internally ) and the gas
supply there. The A.G. continued on with the fact that the Government has
no plans to deal with such an occurance. Half a million in Edmonton
alone. And trust me the weather really sucks big time there during the
winter. Western culture has not considered cold in their saftey
considerations. If we have a fire there are commonly found sprinklers in
buildings to stop the fire. Good thing. If the power shuts down for any
length of time those folk do not have alternative heat.... and the water
sprinklers more than likely will not work. They heat with natural gas
there. That is an unrecognized problem by the public in general yet power
producers such as nukes get the attention. Natural Gas is at a terrible
risk, and will affect a greater number of folk.

There is nothing that is a greater threat than how folks keep warm in
my humble opinion. This is a direct threat to survival. Waking up in -30
is quite the experiance. The term "light fire" brings on a whole new
meaning. Its called survival. But if there is no manner to have heat then
the body will have to provide heat and that could lead to all manner of
health issues.

If there are folk out there with a high risk factor in being exposed to
the cold then get alternate reliable heat. Wood heat, Propane, Even oil.
Just some kind of contigence plan that will work on demand ( relitives? ) .
Natural gas has been promoted ( on tv the quebec folk are switching to
it. ) Yet it is not to be trusted during the rollover. This is from the
industry itself. I have posted urls on my Chop Wood Haul Water articles.

Canadian Y2k links>

Canadian Y2k links

Comments on living in -40
Chop wood haul water

Folks here is a good indication of what Y2k could bring. The link below
is a gentlemans website and his diary of the experiances.
The link below is from a collection of veiws from folk on life during the
ice storm.^13393@.ee6b907>^13393@.ee6b907
Highly recommended


(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:49 - ID#290281)
Y2K.....The Canadian Way....And this is how you do it... Taken from another thread.
The farm that I bought doesn't have a septic system.

I was originally planning on putting in a traditional pit privy

( outhouse over a big hole in the ground ) , however...

my ground is really clayey, and very hard to dig into.

( It was hard enough, using a backhoe, digging holes for some posts,

for a gate and mailbox; to try to dig a pit by hand?

Not if I can find another way! )

So, what I'm going to do is what is recommended in "The Humanure Handbook".

Basically, crap in a bucket, and cover it with sawdust. ( You can use

other materials, but the author recommends sawdust, for a variety of reasons,

just as long as it isn't from wood that has been treated with any chemicals. )

When the bucket is full, you dump it into a compost pit. The book goes

into detail on how to do this.

( Put alot of water in the bucket, too. Make it a 5 gal bucket/indoor

compost. Put garbage in it too, from the kitchen. ) ct

This sounds gross and smelly, but one of my younger brother's neighbours

is using this system. I dropped by to see it, and... the room in the house where the 'toilet' is located doesn't really have a noticable smell ( even though there was no vent to the outside ) .

You can vent it out the window with a waterhose.

On a slightly unrelated note, I did a bunch of plumbing on the week-end.

I haven't plumbed before, but I've got a number of books on the subject.

So I read about it, figured out what I thought I'd need, bought it,

then tried doing it yesterday ( October 12 ) . I ended up not having

enough of the pipe that I needed. Now, October 12/98 was a statutory holiday in Canada. So I couldn't go out and buy what I needed. ( Think of it as a practice run for Y2K :-/ ... )  I made do. If I hadn't been able to improvise a solution, I would have been able to buy what I needed today.

In 15 months I ( and you! ) may not have this option.

(Sun Nov 08 1998 23:51 - ID#408170)
The well oiled money machine
It's hard to comprehend the all the reasons for the stock markets
manic rise and continued strength . The list of historical abnormalities
is as long as your arm.
One of the predominate features of this new land scape, even the main
support column, has to be the ( Selling Machine ) that has been created in
the last 20 years.
I have a family member , a VP in a well known bank. Their job description
has gone from banker...... to mutual fund salesman.
These people go through one artificial mutual fund insemination after another,
endless seminars, never ending classes, awards, trips, you name it.
His office was "plain Jane" with file cabinets ( 20yag ) , now a "Sales Boutique"
complete with wall charts, brochures, suckers for the kids.
They don't know hockey.. about stocks, just say what they are told, rote.
When banks were first permitted to sell stocks, he was given a separate office
by law, to conduct sales. Hell, they've now they broken out the walls. The
sales office is twice the size, and, the brokers, Ops! ( Bankers ) have tripled,
tellers have decreased.
( Spread the word ) , There's Money in Gambling... RB.