Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:07 - ID#31868)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:07 - ID#25490)
codeman, your "The average customer now has TDSR's above 40% making the financing of the auto almost an impossibility. "

What's a TDSR? TIA

Got acronyms?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:11 - ID#259260)
Y2K...Sharefin, Crazytimes, all..... Bart
We're ALL right.... and time will tell how much. Kitco poll... Will Kitco site be up and running with 80% or more of the "membership" having access on Y2K?? !!

Chances.... 20%, 40%, etc.


PS.. Bart... All this controversial Gold, Silver, Mining, etc. chat here. Can't we sanction some tamer more neutral subjects like;

Gun control, abortion, political isolationism, cultural superiority, feminists. Nazi's, the Middle East.... just for starters?

Cage Rattler
(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:12 - ID#33184)
Many years ago today ... "Dr Livingston, I presume"

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:17 - ID#24135)
I luv freebies ..
Fella on following site ..

has a free offer to all kitconians ..

I think he will explain why gold must go to about
$ 235 and a whole lot of other things .. dont pass
this up.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:25 - ID#219363)
Total Debt Service Ratio ( TDSR ) : The total annual mortgage payment, property taxes, condo fees, and all other debts expressed as a percentage of gross annual income.


Total Debt Service Ratio: TDSR or TDS. Add all other debt payments to the GDSR and measure as a percentage of the total income of the Borrower. Suppose in the Example of the GDSR above the Borrower had a monthly car payment of $300.00 on top of his PITH ( principal, interest, taxes, heat ) for a total monthly obligation of $1,650.00 This represents 33% of the Borrowers total income. Lender will usually allow up to 40 or 42% maximum TDS


Total Debt Service Ratio ( TDSR ) - This is the total cost of housing payments plus all other installment payments divided by the family's total gross income. Generally this ratio should not exceed 42%.


Got Gold ?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:26 - ID#238422)
John Disney
You have no mercy, my brother...You perfectly
know that the guy talking about $235 gold will be
brutally skinned alive by Kitco brothers, and his
site will be set on fire...I will be the first one
to spray this poor fellow with steel-core bullets
from my AK-47....

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:26 - ID#24135)
pair of dimes shift ..
To all
Just realzed that january 1, 2000 hits the northern
hemisphere in the DEAD of winter ... Hahahahahah ..
Warm down here .. plenty food .. nice hey..
.. all prior currency trends to reverse .. One
kiwi $ = 100 quid .. gold backed rand to be world
reserve currency ..
.....all this and cricket too.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:26 - ID#284255)
BUGal - power and oil - no worries

Chevron won't fix all Y2K bugs in time
Chevron Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, expects to spend $200 million to $300 million to fix its so-called Year 2000 computer software bug, according to a company regulatory filing.
San Francisco-based Chevron said it has spent so far $40 million making sure its computers will recognize the year 2000. The company also said work won't be finished when the clock turns to Jan. 1, 2000.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:28 - ID#411163)
All-I have a friend who is in his early 70's His wife passed
away 4 years ago and he has found her silverware hidden away. he says that it would take several wheelbarrows to get it all moved. He wants to find a place to turn it into cash without giving it away. One of the bowls must weigh 15 lbs. Any help here?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:30 - ID#219363)
@John Disney
"DEAD of winter, hahaha", I was thinking about that when Sharefin's post mentioned something about January and a week or two without electricity. Brrrrrrr, it gets cold here in these Virginia mountain tops.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:33 - ID#25490)

Please thank son of crusty for his analysis. It fits well with that of my Pal, Burt. Looking for the Big Spike Down. I have emailed him crustyson's analysis, and, if he comments, shall advise y'all of it.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:36 - ID#412286)
John Disney
While you live in the risky and possibly hostile confines of South Africa, I live in the beautiful and safe surroundings of Fairfax County Virginia USA. Not too far from BILL.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:38 - ID#25490)
did you get straightened out on your Au maths and supply stats?

Immediately after posting this, I trolled a couple of Treasure Sites, sure enough, they were measuring gold in pounds, so I got that wrong.

thanks for the TDSR explanation

Cage Rattler
(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:38 - ID#33184)
Money Laundering Madness
Money laundering is never far from the headlines. This may have some-
thing to do with governments' continual propagation of the idea that
money laundering ( the willful manipulation of money to disguise its
criminal origins ) rates alongside drugs and pornography as a great evil
of the late 20th Century. Incidentally, this government-induced para-
noia also provides US authorities with sufficient reason ( think; Excuse )
to introduce intrusive legislation and investigatory procedures to
combat this and other "crimes".

Late last year, Uncle Sam's growing neurosis sent shock waves through
foreign financial centers. New York's assistant district attorney, John
Moscow, announced his office was considering filing criminal charges
against overseas bank employees who failed to spot or report money
laundering schemes involving US and foreign-based banks.
Moscow charitably accepts that more money-laundering activity takes
place unchecked in New York than say London. Even so, Moscow and his
paper-shuffling minions arrogantly assert that extraterritorial powers
and the right to threaten the institutions and customers of other
countries are the best methods of getting the global "problem" undercontrol.

Indicating his office's intention to act as World Financial Policeman,
Moscow said "We're not going to tolerate bad guys moving money from New
York to London banks and using that to say they are out of our juris-diction".

To illustrate US intent to sink its claws into financial affairs the
world over, Moscow drew attention to Swiss banks. He said, "The pos-
ition of the Swiss banks, that they are outside our jurisdiction even
when they have branch offices in New York, is unacceptable".
The disturbing thing is that when US officials bark, foreign banking
systems quiver. Long established rules and attitudes towards customer
privacy and account confidentiality fall by the wayside in what often
resembles a mad race to curry favor with a stern parent.
Since his comments, Moscow says his office has "received more cooper-
ation from London banks". It isn't as though the US hasn't already got
foreign banking authorities jumping through hoops. The US is simply
turning the screw.

Banks worldwide are filing suspicious transaction reports ( STR's ) to
the authorities much more frequently because they live in fear of reg-
ulatory retaliation and US inspired lawsuits if they don't.
Steve MacMillan, of law firm SGR Macmillan in Toronto, was recently
quoted as saying that "banks increasingly are reporting more than they
need to in order to bend over backwards so nobody accuses them of comp-
licity and money laundering". Scoring brownie points with the US is fast
becoming the number one priority of banks all over the western world.
Customer privacy is being sacrificed as a result.

British banks report suspicious transactions to the National Criminal
Intelligence Service. In 1987, 600 reports were made by financial
institutions. By 1996, this figure had risen to 16,125. In 1998, an
estimated 20,000 "suspicious" transaction reports will be filed.
Belgium has also seen a sharp rise - 1997 saw 7,135 reports compared to
4,480 a year earlier.

In the US, 138,000 suspicious transaction reports have been filed since
April 1996. In addition to this, the number of +US$10,000 transaction
reports made to the IRS has reached the 12 million mark.

In the global war against money laundering, the western banks run the
risk of compromising customers privacy with over-zealous reporting of
transactions that are harmless and innocent.

Nevertheless, foreign banking authorities march on to the beat of Uncle
Sam's drum. Even the Bank of England has ignored bankers' concerns about
the US assertion of extraterritorial powers. British banks were warned
that they ignore US attitudes towards money laundering at their peril.
In Belgium, a recently released report by the Center For Investigation
of Money Movements - called for more powers to be given to investiga-
tive agencies. Ignoring the already high levels of privacy erosion the
report states "Our priority should be towards the police and judicial
bodies. We have to give more special investigation powers to police".
This is okay, if new investigation powers are targeted specifically at
criminals. But, experience tells us that it won't be too long before
new intrusive powers are leveled at individuals who have committed no
crime. The result is the death of financial privacy for all - not just
the bad guys. Whilst shaking its fists at foreign banking industries and calling foreign governments to heel, the US hasn't let up on the domestic
front. The new proposed Know Your Customer regulations from the
Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
are in our hands! They will be published in the Federal Register by
the end of the month. These revolutionary regulations will change the
US money laundering control landscape dramatically and literallyovernight.

The new KYC rules will require virtually every financial institution
operating in the US to implement Know Your Customer programs that
include measures to:
* determine the true identity of the institutions customers
* determine the customers sources of funds for transactions involving
the institution
* determine the particular customers "normal and expected transactions
involving the bank"
* monitor customer transactions "to determine if such transactions are
consistent with normal and expected transactions...."
* identify customer transactions "that do not appear to be consistent
with normal and expected transactions...."
* determine if a transaction "is unusual or suspicious, in accordance
with... suspicious activity reporting regulations" and report accordingly.


Despite the increased dangers, people still draw unnecessary attention
to themselves with suicidaly ridiculous behavior.
Michelle Chambers, an American woman, was recently arrested in connec-
tion with a large cash heist. She was arrested because she managed to
draw an inordinate amount of attention to herself with antics literally
demanding bank tellers file suspicious transaction reports. Learn from
her mistakes.
* Don't go in to banks or financial institutions inquiring about
limitations that apply to deposits or transactions before paperwork
is required. This is a good way of guaranteeing you are the subject
of a suspicious activity report.
* Don't tell the bank teller "Don't worry because the money is not from
selling drugs".
* It is also inadvisable to copy Chambers by carrying $200,000 into
a bank and asking for an official check paid to yourself.


Be sensible. Never deposit more than $10,000. And be careful not to
arouse attention by depositing a series of payments which fall "just
under" the $10,000 ceiling. This process is known as "structuring" or
"smurfing" and will be reported to the IRS who will then launch an
unwanted investigation in to your financial affairs.

Also, do your banking offshore in a country that respects your right
to financial privacy. This tip may be obvious, but the concept of
offshore banking is still quite unknown to many people! Are you aware
that there are countries where fully anonymous bank accounts are allowed
by law and actually encouraged by the government? That there are others
where money laundering is not considered a crime? That there are coun-
tries whose banks do not ever respond to foreign agencies' requests for
client data etc.?

Source: Offshore Profit Centre

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:40 - ID#255151)
Envy-- Virginia, Dec. 1999, et al

Some one needs to write a letter to Saint Nick as a reminder. "Yes, Santa Claus, there is a Virginia."

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:42 - ID#333126)
anyone got Citigroup puts?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:45 - ID#333126)
interest rates: to drop or not to drop, that is the question

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:48 - ID#219363)
@Aurator, @Auric
Aurator: Yep, got it figured, thank'ye *smile*

Auric: Where on earth did I see that recently ? I think it might have been on television, no joke, that exact saying. I just have no idea what it meant because I can't remember the context.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:49 - ID#411259)
..... Yes .....

Some talk was made this summer regarding the fall off in Japanese platinum jewelry demand. JM, in its semi annual PGM report, cited increased demand in China, offsetting decreased demand in Japan. But the CPM Group's own study made no mention of this. Today from the Platinum Guild:

"A recent Reuters article reports that Amplats Managing Director Barry Davison told a Chamber of Mines meeting in South Africa that Chinese platinum jewelry demand has grown from nearly nothing four years ago to about 12 tons this year. For the first half of 1998, Chinese platinum jewelry demand was about 9 tons, demonstrating continuing strength in that sector. Mr. Davison told the Chamber of Mines that the growth in platinum jewelry demand has offset the declines seen in the Japanese platinum jewelry sector. US platinum jewelry demand is also at a rapid pace of growth."

This is comforting corroboration.

I think, when all is said and written about this year, it will be that platinum demand ROSE and the true nature of the current market will become quite evident, nay dare I even say popular?

Platinum. Popular.??

Say it ain't so



Last rally from $340 to $435 had the commercials long just over 2,000 contracts, against 2,400 spec shorts. We now see the commercials long about 2,600 against 4,800 fund shorts.

In upside down numbers such as these, whipsaw turnarounds are born.

Perhaps this time too, yes?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 00:50 - ID#31868)
Rack, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...send me an email regarding your friend...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:01 - ID#341234)
James Dines on NBR
Mark your calendars. James Dines is scheduled to be the guest market monitor on Nightly Business Report ( PBS ) on Fri, Nov 20. Has anyone read his book?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:02 - ID#255151)
Envy 00:48

Been waiting for a chance to use that line.
From the editor of the New York Sun, 1897--

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:13 - ID#411259)
..... Lurking Bug Al .....

The car thingy was not really a scoop on the WSJ.
Everybody scoops the WSJ
But sales are indeedy up, yes?

I am rather more proud of my Thursday Nov 05 1998 @ 18:12

For buried deep within is the following:

"Newt is gone, his time is over."

The rest of the world was stunned late the following Friday when Newt confirmed this.

You heard it here first.


Agree with ( Ahhh to be a Platinum waist chain on her for a day.... )


(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:14 - ID#190411)
@The Disneys
In the certain case that Au will drop to 135-220 USD, as written in the squiggles of the history of Elliot, what have the SA producers done to obviate bankruptcy in this unfortunate situation?
Do they think that the counterparties to their hedges will honor a loss of 75-150 USD/ounce?
Have you run the numbers past Mr. Swanepoel?

I got my Q report from Harmony. A cheap, crummy, ten page booklet that tells me most everything that I need to know.
Randgold has a 56 page, glossy, heavy glazed paper, coloured, vastly wasteful annual report. I got two, BTW.
Is Kebble the lesser trying to impress his latest girlfriend?

Harmony is tight. I like that.

Ugh, I see that I got another profit killer from Anglogold.
These dopes should get a website; maybe we shareholders could get a dividend from the print cost savings.

motto of SA golds------------"Converting Gold To Paper"

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:20 - ID#347457)
@Sharefin and Envy
Sharefin. Is Garry North wrong about Y2K? Yes, he is wrong in his approach. Credit is due to him for bringing attention to all implications how Y2K may impact our life. He is dead wrong in his "gloom and defeatist views". He describes all negatives, mistakes, and problems, however, he avoids any references to some successes and victories. Uninformed reader may as well say "here it is, we all may just as well to give up and wait for coming disaster".

Jim Lord is my good friend, though I lost touch with him when he and his family moved to Utah last Spring. He was one of the first people trying to educate communities, local government, and individuals about how to prepare for Y2K, and about potential impact on your personal life. There is a difference: Garry talking about "we are doomed", Jim talking about "lets do something about it so we can get through it without too much impact on our personal life, family, and community".

There is a danger when you accentuate only negatives and don't give any hope. That's not how it works in life. If we all thought that there is no hope, we as a human race would never make any progress, we would just hide in a cave and wait for the death to come.

Sharefin my friend, I hope you understand that when I contradict some of your posts it's because I want to present more balanced view about Y2K. I appreciate all your effort to raise awareness to all kinds of potential Y2K problems. However, I also want to get out the message that not all these worries will realize, and that there is a hope that we will get through this mess.

BTW, I meant to say for a long time how much I enjoyed you dad's poetry. He talks about things I can associate with. Thank you for posting some of it and giving us a link to his "Internet book of poetry".

Envy. You touched my sore point. That really gets me when lawyers start talking about "don't get involved - you will get sued". Yes, lawyers are closing in, they smell money, and there will be a lot of law suits against everybody having anything to do with Y2K. Just like "ambulance chaser layers" there will be "Y2K chasers". Heck, if there is anybody who should be subject of Y2K lawsuits, it should be the top management layer of companies who were delaying Y2K project for so long just to improve a short term profitability of the company. Will people working on Y2K make mistakes? But of course! To work on these projects in such a short time, many times with minimum support from management, will lead to mistakes. Should I be sued? Quite frankly my dear, I don't give a damn! I know that there is work which needs to be done and I am not walking away just because some dumb ass layer wants to make money. I have my professional ethic and it does not let me walk away.

Sorry for my long rant.

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:32 - ID#24135)
gotta mean streak ...
For ROR ..
merry Christmas year 2000 to you and your buddy Bill.
Maybe Santa will provide more estrogen so you can
participate fully in the political power shift ...
talk about hostile surroundings .. try Virginia in
January...with no heat.

for Earl ..
dont be too hard on Anglos .. it's
a pretty big company .. as to the
Rangold book .. only costs a lot
more to go first class.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:34 - ID#219363)
Don't Take Savings Bonds for Granted
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Surely, you might be inclined to say, no investment should be simpler to understand than U.S. Savings Bonds, often owned by ordinary folks not accustomed to financial intricacies. But if that is so, why are these investors holding $5.3 billion of savings bonds that have ceased to pay any interest at all -- in effect, granting the U.S. government interest-free loans of their money? And why is it that, according to at least one survey, bank personnel more often gave wrong rather than correct answers when asked how long it takes for a bond to reach face value at the guaranteed interest rate?

Auric: Thanks, that was a nice editorial, I liked it.

Miro: Agreed, somebody has to fix all this stuff.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:35 - ID#284255)
Snipped from a forum

There is growing concern over the credit profile of some of the world's top
banks and it has sparked a demand for credit derivatives to insure against
possible loan defaults and to limit exposure to these banks. Banks are also
taking out protection against each other as a perception grows that they
need to insure against banks failing to repay anything from commercial
loans to bonds issued by banks themselves. Premiums for AA rated European
banks has widened by 1/2% in the last two months due to exposure to Russian
and emerging market debt. Credit risk is everywhere. The total outstanding
value of credit derivatives is expected to jump to $350 billion by the end
of this year and reach $740 billion by 2000. Who writes this insurance and
how solvent are they?

There are few publications in the world where you can get this kind of
information early enough to protect yourself.

What the biggest banks in the world are saying is we could all go under.
That is right, the credit system could well collapse. The answer is to have
small denomination U.S. currency, gold and silver coins and stocks and food
and protection. You may well need them if panicking bankers are any


This is a very rich article. Much info, some in banker speak, some in
plain speak. This guy doesn't even bring up the Euro conversion _or y2k,
and he is recommending to prepare!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:36 - ID#25490)
Brother Limey
"The rest of the world was stunned late the following Friday when Newt confirmed this."

au contraire, mon frere, the rest of the world ( ROW ) doesn't give a hoot about US politics, or US constitution, or where your Prez is putting his wang. If the ROW knew what your 401 plans are, and what they mean, then, they'd ( it'd? ) be stunned. A real cunning stunt the 401.

All you pure capitalists, why do you not rail against the Federal Deposit Insurance schemes and 401s? sounds like subsidy of the inept by the tax-payer/consumer to me. ( course I'm not a US tax payer )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:42 - ID#344326)
Oleman sees more to the upside....
oleman . . Mon, Nov 9, 9:50PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
sw: I cant see the future, but I never expect something to happen that has never happened. The market aint never quit on max momentum. It'll go higher with less oomph, before it quits, fer sure. Before you locked her up below decks, deesse and I made a lot of $$ on 10/28/97, cause the market had NEVER topped out on a new high in the A/D line. As an old Ky horse bettor, i cant ever bet on a horse to do sumpin he aint never done. Nossir!: )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:45 - ID#219363)
S. Korea, Thailand Crisis Said Over
TOKYO ( AP ) -- South Korea and Thailand are over the worst of the Asian economic crisis, but grinding poverty still stands in the way of recovery in Indonesia, the president of the World Bank said Tuesday. "We've come a long way in Korea and Thailand in building the economic and financial base ... to try to stabilize the economic situation," James Wolfensohn told reporters in Tokyo. The two countries have largely overcome the "worst excesses" of problems of interest rates, foreign reserves and lack of credit, he said. Indonesia, however, is making slower progress, in part because it was poorer than South Korea and Thailand before the Asian financial crisis hit last year, Wolfensohn said.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:45 - ID#347457)
BTW Envy, cheers from you Virginia neighbor. I live up north, close to DC, but when I am not sailing on Chesapeake Bay, I love hiking in Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:48 - ID#411259)
..... Salty .....

I coulda' sworn
There were three guys
At the end of the bar
Who definitely looked
Mildly surprised

Look for the 401s
To be wedged between
The 400s and the 402s


(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:49 - ID#153110)
Thanks to T1 you may read a most perceptive warning on the coming American crisis, a warning with which I wholeheartedly agree.
A Crisis As Great As the Civil War
Steve Myers

Between the likes of Bully Beef, Bugall, & ROR and myself, there is eternal enmity and division on issues of fundamental import and this same division is happening across this continent. I think with my head, not my heart, and though my heart is hurt and heavy that these times are as they are and that we are come to this pass as a country, my mind cannot deny the evidence. I hope in posting to have conveyed true knowledge from history and law of the origins, issues, and the stakes in this great divide.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 01:54 - ID#219363)
Good to know ya. I'm up that way all the time and have spent a goodly amount of my days through Fairfax, Alexandria and the Mary land. I think I just saw a post from ROR saying he was outta Fairfax as well. Yep, the leaves they are a pretty down here, good hiking weather too.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:00 - ID#153110)
I'm glad I gave you the occassion to post a tribute to the heroic in your family and to the men and women from occupied countries who emigrated to fight the Nazis. However, my statement is objectively true and I stand by it as being informed. The millions in arms in WWII were almost all from countries which conscripted. Once governments impose conscription, no enlistment thereafter can be considered voluntary.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:05 - ID#25490)
Got Regulation?
Good one! :- )

There has never been, nor can there ever be a "pure capitalism." Capitalism ( like Communism ) has a tendency ( ? ) towards monopoly ownership. It is necessary to restrain monopolies, either by permitting challenges to it, or by restriction. In the first, I am thinking of MS's near monopoly of O/S on the desktop. While the monopoly looks secure, the threat of a free O/S could tumble it. In the second I am thinking of your Sherman Law, and the break up of IT&T.
I am also thinking of a statement I read a long time ago, from the 1890's, in the Guernsey States of Deliberation:
"Regulation is necessary to restrain the excesses of the free market."

But, I suppose, it is a lesson that may need to be learned again.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:07 - ID#284255)
Thanks for your comments.
I have to agree with you.
There is no time for pure doom stories.
If we all believed them what a waste of time.
We'd all just give up.
Harlan gave a good review of that article.

More so we must move on.
Prepare and plan to overcome.

I quite liked this one.

Glad you enjoyed Dad's poems
There are 5 more like the last one when I can find time to get them done.
And you've just spurred me on to get the others up and running.
I guess I need a secretary. ( :- ) ) )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:17 - ID#219363)
No big bear bottoms in sight - and that's no bull
The bear market, the existence of which was never fully embraced by Wall Street mavens, is over. We know this because the armistice with the bears has been signed and officially announced in the Oct. 27, 1998, edition of the Wall Street Journal. The tip implying that the end was near appeared on CNNfn's Web site over the previous weekend. Street pros declared that the small and medium-size stocks were ready to roll north, and the move would start during the very next week. Son of a gun, they were absolutely on target. For decades, many of us have been doing things the hard way, by deeply studying the numbers. By measuring risk vs. reward. By thinking that the economy and the value of money and return on investment were important considerations. But hey, as it turns out, hard work and tireless effort is totally unnecessary. The process is so simple, or so we're led to believe by the latest Street wisdom: When the popular index of choice drops 20 percent, a bear market controls the turf. When the popular index of choice rises 20 percent from the low point of choice, a bull has retaken the territory.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:28 - ID#273227)
Rack - please email me about your friend.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:28 - ID#347457)
Mozel my friend, now there is the issue where we are in total agreement. Clinton will go into history as president who divided this country into ten thousand different groups all of them in fierce disagreement. Democrats against Republican, libertarian against conservatives, minorities against whites, gays against heterosexuals, Christians against other religions, US against the rest of the world, "have" against "not have". You can go on and on and the center figure is our president playing one group against other just to improve numbers in the polls. Sentiments go from disagreement right down to hate.

I was having many discussions about this issue since WJC was elected. This division starter with his election for his first term, and it's getting progressively worse. To me, the president should unify and lead the nation. He does quite the opposite. So far it's "economy, stupid" which keeps this thing going. When the economy turns South, I am afraid that we will be at each other throats. God help us - this economy can't go forever, and wounds don't heal so fast - even the new presidential figure won't be able to repair the damage done by this clown.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:30 - ID#266105)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:34 - ID#219363)
Following Asia down at the open.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:35 - ID#25490)
At the going down of the sun, and in the morning. We shall remember them..
tomorrow is 11/11
Remembrance day in the Commonwealth, to the fallen of WW1.

I offer this in memoriam to all four of my grandfather's brothers who lost their lives at the Somme. Every one volunteered, not one was a conscript.

In Flanders Fields

In Flanders Fields the poppies blow

Between the crosses row on row,

That mark our place; and in the sky

The Larks, still bravely singing, fly,

Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the dead. Scarce days ago

We lived , felt dawn, saw sunset glow

Loved, and were loved ,and now we lie

In Flanders fields.

Take up your quarrel with the foe:

To you from failing hands we throw ,

The torch; be yours to hold it high.

If ye break faith with us who die

We shall not sleep, though poppies grow in Flanders fields.

--Major John McCrae,
WWI poet, May 1915, at Ypres
( 2 verses of 15 )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:40 - ID#153110)
@F* The Queen, The Crown, and the Horse she rode in on.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:44 - ID#433172)
Just watched Seattle ch5 news. They reported on a CEO of a canadian exploration mining company who took the place of an employee being held hostage in Columbia by rebels who want 2 million for his freedom. The employee had been held hostage for 14 months or so, when the CEO traded places he told the man " your shift is over".

If anyone finds out which company is involved I'd like to know. Any details at all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:46 - ID#333126)
report on nikkei weakness

"lack of credibility in the government"

"domestics running for the door"

puts on paper anyone?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:47 - ID#347457)
Sharefing, thanks for comments and the link. I like it, and YES, I am "rational survivalist" ;- )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:49 - ID#333126)
alert! Frenchy index plummeting^fchi&d=b

is this quote accurate?

-10.5% and counting

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:51 - ID#347457)
Good Night You All
Sharefin, sorry for mispelling your handle - it's getting too late for me :- (
Good nigh ya'll

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:52 - ID#333126)
hmmm...disregard earlier post
must be something seriously wrong with the yahoo ticker

try this one:

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:52 - ID#333126)
hmmm...disregard earlier post
must be something seriously wrong with the yahoo ticker ... hmm...

try this one:

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:53 - ID#219363)
It really happened, question is, why ? Checking...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:55 - ID#25490)

Have you forgotten yet? Look down and swear by the blood of the slain that you'll never forget -
Siegfried Sassoon


I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer.
The publican 'e up and sez, "We serve no red-coats 'ere."
The girls be'ind the bar, they laughed and giggled fit to die.
I outs into the street again and to myself sez I...

Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, 'ow's yer soul?"
But it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll....

O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck 'im out, the brute!"
But it's "Saviour of 'is Country" when the guns begin to shoot...

Rudi Kipling.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:56 - ID#347457)
your first post and included link worked for me just fine

(Tue Nov 10 1998 02:57 - ID#219363)
Still not convinced, Bloomberg doesn't even have today's numbers for CAC, those are 9/11.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:02 - ID#219363)
Dollar Up, Japanese Stocks Lower
TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar rose against the yen Tuesday as strong sentiment carried through from overseas spurred dollar-buying. Japanese stocks closed lower in subdued trading. The dollar bought 122.14 yen in mid-afternoon trading, up 2.78 yen from late Monday in Tokyo and also above its late New York level of 121.57 yen overnight. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 86.45 points, or 0.61 percent, finishing at 14,108.09 points. On Monday, the index gained 72.57 points, or 0.51 percent. Traders said the dollar climbed to its highest level against the yen in over a month as Japanese trust banks and institutional investors bought dollars. The dollar managed to push through resistance both around 122.00 yen and the overnight high of 122.20 yen, triggering some stop-loss buying that sent it to an intraday high of 122.70 yen, its highest level since early October. Traders said the dollar-buying was prompted by the growing notion that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting Nov. 17.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:04 - ID#284255)
France now up
Perchance a glitch???

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:04 - ID#284255)
I'd guess I'm rational enough to survive too ( :- ) ) )

Here's one from Dad
The Second Coming

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.

William Butler Yeats

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:11 - ID#25490)
slouching to Bethlehem

"Americans, indeed all free men, remember that in the final choice, a
soldier's pack is not so heavy a burden as a prisoner's chains." --Dwight D.
Eisenhower, First Inaugural Address, January 20, 1953

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:16 - ID#284255)
Soros urges to seek new means to fend off crisis

Some interesting info on this page.

Definately a glitch on France being down.
I too saw it on two seperate pages of Yahoos.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:17 - ID#219363)
I would assume it was a glitch: tried to be sure, but couldn't find any other servers that were running at the time, so we'll just have to assume it was *grin*.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:20 - ID#284255)
Fed's Rivlin warns of sharp U.S. slowdown

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:29 - ID#433172)
Social order is basic to man. Violence is mostly orchestrated by organizations, not by individuals, who by themselves are mostly timid.

Try using violence to get your way sometime, it doesn't take cops to keep order. I know, I was a kickass kind of guy, but then I reached my 5th birthday and rode my new tricycle down the hill to give a neighbor boy his weekly ass-kicking. Things didn't work out and when I rode my bent trike back up the hill I quit being a kickass kind of guy.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:32 - ID#153110)
@In Other Words
"Americans, indeed all free men, remember that in the final choice, a
soldier's pack is not so heavy a burden as a prisoner's chains." --Dwight D.
Eisenhower, First Inaugural Address, January 20, 1953

In other words, says the General, being conscripted is preferable to being imprisoned for refusing conscription. It is essential that the called believe this for conscription to succeed.

Nothing so much evidences lack of faith in the Gospel as fascination with human sacrifice on the alter of a battlefield. None are so godless as those who celebrate and justify that form of worship.

No government which does not secure for the individual the Rights of Man deserves any sacrifice whatsoever of blood or treasure.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:39 - ID#25490)
No government which does not secure for the individual the Rights of Man
deserves any sacrifice whatsoever of blood or treasure.

mo, mo. mo.

Those who fought these wars, did not fight for their gobmints, but for their lives, for the lives of their families, the women and children they loved.
It is not a gobmint thing. But a fight of tyranny. I am afraid that, in your fight for personal freedom, liberation and self-determination, you have actually forgotten that gobmint is comprised of people. some of these people may be your kith, some may even be your kin. But, for better or worse, they are your compatriots.
Do you love noone but yourself? Do you care for nothing but yourself? It is a strange, insular and frightening brand of christianity you waive in front of us.

I would say, as it appears heartless, it is also godless...

Have you ever ventured outside the US, frere mozel?

Monkee Person
(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:49 - ID#350199)
@Aurator 02:55

Must have been you that posted 'Little Hunter, way back when.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 03:52 - ID#25490)
Monkee Person
Nope, it weren't me.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:04 - ID#280214)
Newt said much good at GOPAC
He laid out a great description of where our democracy should go.
If this guy isn't running for President....
Anybody find a transcript yet?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:07 - ID#348169)
Date: Tue Nov 10 1998 02:44
George ( Hostage ) ID#433172:
George - I believe that that was front page news on the Globe and Mail or the new National Post two or three days ago. Do a search on theses papers and report back.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:11 - ID#25490)
Time to join the jacquerie

"War is an ugly thing but not the ugliest of things; the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feelings which thinks that nothing is worth fighting for is much worse. A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing he cares about more than his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."
--John Stuart Mill

Bon nuit Jacques!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:19 - ID#266105)
generational accounting

On another note:

11/1/98 Pat Shuff
Shelton for Federal Reserve chairwoman, Wanniski Sec. of Treasury, Kemp president. Money actually does melt, at high temperatures.

11/4/98 Judy Shelton ( con't )
Pat Shuff: I e-mailed Jude with your proposal and I will bring it up with Kemp next week. Jonathan: The gold standard is not "silly" so THERE! Now I am going to log off and finish reading the rest of your comments. Thanks, all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:21 - ID#433172)
I sincerely respect your views on service to your country sir and ideally you have stated a good case. I have lost my idealizm.

All gobmints exersize the same tyrany over the population, and conscript men to fight. The only way to resist tyrany is not to fight. But for most it is easier to serve than resist and so we have the draft.

WW1 was futile, better to have kept the Kaiser. With some intelligence we could have gotten rid of Hitler instead of battering Germany. Saddam could go without the scrafice of so many really innocent people. These wars don't serve the interests of the people but rather those who love war for one reason or another.

There was a feeling in the US during WW2 that we were doing the right thing. Within a month of the end of the war casualties were forgotten, especially the dead. Life goes on and let the good times roll. Not the families of the victims tho, they never forget. Never.

I named my oldest son James after my brother who was killed Nov. 13,1944 near Bitburg,Germany. His last letters included " I have seen action, and it is horrible, pray for me." He was a conscript.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:22 - ID#255151)
2BR02B 02:30

Is must reading. If you haven't read it, do so now. Hey, take your finger off the scroll arrow! That's better. Now, go read it. G'night. G'Gold.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:23 - ID#432148)
Squirrel (Newt at GOPAC)
The majority lib press destroyed Newt the same way it did Quale. He should write a book on this. If Clinton had been a Republican he would have been destroyed long ago. The trial lawyers, lib educational establishment and the lib press are destroying the U. S.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:30 - ID#348169)
Date: Tue Nov 10 1998 02:00
mozel ( @Miro ) ID#153110:
Good Morning mozel. Without getting involved in the deeper discussion going on here ( my sleepy head is not quite up to it just yet ) I must at lest point out that the contention in your 2:00 is most probably in error. I believe that if you check the history books you will find that the vast majority of the men and women who served in WW1 and WW2, that came from countries in the British Empire, were volunteers. In Canada, for instance, it was specific government policy that conscription not be used and from 1939 till 1944 this policy stayed in effect, and yet the whole country was geared to the war effort during this time. After 5 years when a manpower shortage was felt for the final push, Canada did finally conscript in '44, but this was long after the vast majority of able-bodied men, both young and middle-aged had already joined up.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:34 - ID#284255)
Tomorrows news today

I'm a pacifist.
I don't believe in domination.
You know - peace, love, brown rice, and all that stuff.
I don't know where I went wrong but?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:38 - ID#25490)
They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old. Age shall not weary them.
Nor the years condemn


You brother shall join these others in my prayers tomorrow.

So many injustices are done in the valiant battle to fight one wrong.

The wrong was imperialistic Nazism. The injustices echo still down our generations.

We shall remember them.
We shall remember them.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:41 - ID#348169)
Good Morning aurator? evening? Just saw your: 01:36
aurator ( ) ID#25490:
Brother Limey
"The rest of the world was stunned late the following Friday when Newt confirmed this." and I must back you up on that one also. I would bet that ( excluding the USA ) there is less than 2% of the adult population in the G7 who have the foggiest idea who that tadpole fellow is! ( And probably less than 1% of those that know would give a fig about his fate. )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:42 - ID#284255)
Globex dropping

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:50 - ID#432148)
I feel very sorry for your family and your brother James. But I believe you are the idealist, not Aurator. All animals including humans exercise territorial rights and in effect this is war. Law of the jungle. Sad, but true. Someone said long ago war is the natural state, peace unnatural. Some truth in that I regret to say.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:54 - ID#348169)
@John Disney
C'mon John, a smart son like that and you expect us to belive that just today you figured out Jan.1 2000 was in the dead of winter in the northern hem.?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:57 - ID#284255)
Brown Breakout Ratio Update
Here's the daily update on Telescan's short-term market-timing indicator, the Brown Breakout Ratio ( BBR ) :

The BBR followed Friday's +33 reading with a -104 reading on Monday. Although the SPX was also down 10.81 points, an automatic "sell" signal was generated. The automatic "sell" signal was reached because the BBR reading was less than -100. The "buy" signal that had been in effect since October 9th has ended. As of close on Monday, the SPX was 145.81 points higher than the close on Friday, October 9th.


Freebie of the week

(Tue Nov 10 1998 04:59 - ID#25490)
I sometimes wonder if the merkans and Canadians appreciate that I know far more about your countries than any of my compatriots that I know. It is a function of being a voracious reader and consumer of music. None of my friends knows shite about the constitution or your recent elections, ...nor care, what's more.

Now, where was I, Oh yes, Newt Gingrich. Now, the only, that is ONLY thing I know of Newt Gingrich is a spoof done by the Austin Lounge Lizards called "Gingrich the Newt." I am too salty to sing it to you now, but noone in NZ knows this Newt Gingrich..And the Austin Lounge Lizards, probably unknown to most of the citizens of Stephen's little town, Austin. Tx

We have a collaquiallism ( we'd never say these words, but I have to make myself understood ) :::

"Pissed as a Newt." It means, well, salty. Noone here could think of Newt Gingrich if the guy's not p!ssed.

Go geldings?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:01 - ID#153110)
What a crock ! Sure they were fighting for their lives. It was kill or be killed. But, did they wear their family's uniform or The King's ? Were they inspired by high ideals or just bored or out of work ? You sound like a recruitment poster, old bean. Anglophilic Socialist Sentimentalism just don't wash with me.

I am only stating the premise of the American Declaration of Independence when I say "No government that does not secure for the individual the natural Rights of Man deserves any payment whatsoever of blood or treasure." The only connection between the purpose of government declared for at American Independence and Christianity is the shared belief in a benevolent Creator.

Human nature and government are of this world; the promises of religion are of the next. They don't well mix. Government empowered by righteous compassion is as great a slayer and destroyer as government empowered by greed. We have a government here now that combines both in Corporate Pseudo-Religious Socialism. Love thy neighbor is a fine and welcome message and a good way of life, but it is not so hot when it becomes institutionalized compelled performance in a law martial venue.

Yeah, I'm insular. The rest of the globe can take care of itself.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:01 - ID#399147)
Yesterday when you said F* the Queen and the horse she rode in on were you planning on sneding Farfel over there? Good Idea!!! Th Brits need all the help they can get right now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:02 - ID#348169)
Before I check out I would like to thank-you Auric for posting the link to Virginia's Christmas letter. Every year around Christmas I want to get a copy and didn't know where, now I do. You've a heart of Gold Auric ( and a name of one two! )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:05 - ID#25490)
pardon my excess of superlatives in the last post.

carless in motown

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:08 - ID#153110)
@Retired Soldier
I think F* is just the man for the job. I hope he volunteers for it.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:09 - ID#284255)
Now this is serious???

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:12 - ID#25490)
Mother Theresa, Father mozel
That's what I like about christianity; Compassion. Quite a sweetheart, aren't you mozel?

"Love thy neighbor is a fine and welcome message and a good way of
life, but it is not so hot when it becomes institutionalized compelled
performance in a law martial venue.

Yeah, I'm insular. The rest of the globe can take care of itself.

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:14 - ID#24135)
january is cold up there ..
Mooney ..
I knew it all along .. I jes didnt
wanna tell YOU..

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:15 - ID#153110)
I mean no disrespect to all you colonials whose pride is to rush to be cannon fodder for the Crown. But, the numbers of those conscripted directly and indirectly in the combatant countries speak for themselves.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:17 - ID#153110)
I have the London Missionary Society on hold. How many do you want ?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:18 - ID#284255)
Much to amuse here hidden away amongst the links.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:21 - ID#26793)
London morning currency news and comment

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:24 - ID#284255)
The night the lights went out in Georgia

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:29 - ID#25490)
do you feel yourself approaching sainthood.....
mealy mouth mo?
Those countries were fighting for their very lives. Everyone had to fight. Boys had to fight. Old men had to fight. Women who were pregnant had to fight, It was not a matter of anything but survival.

Yes, some men and woman did not want to fight. Yes, they were conscripted. Yes, War is awful.

But. mealy mouthed mo, they were not cannon fodder for the crown, as you put it. foul mealy mouthed mo, they were cannon fodder for freedom from nazism. In fact, ungrateful, mealy mouthed mo, they were cannon fodder for the freedoms you still enjoy. Like the freedom to be mealy mouthed mo, the selfish christian.

You must be numbered in the "Americans ( who ) will fight to the last drop of their allies' blood."

How nicely you strut and preen, you who have had no invaders, who have not felt loss of loved ones defending the honour of their wives and daughters. What selfishness you display. What petty, intellectual onanism you indulge in.

And, this is the funny and sad part, you think you are a christian.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:30 - ID#284255)
The night the lights went out in Georgia

This has been commented on before.
How in the wee hours of the morning there is a lot of activity.

Here we have the future falling and then large volumes come in and turn it back up again.

Strange how it happens will the US sleeps.^o-o^


(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:33 - ID#284255)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:34 - ID#26793)
Asian currency news and comment

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:50 - ID#153110)
@socialissimus of the south seas
Oh, because I don't care to expend American blood and treasure to support your Bolsheviki United Front, you would drown me in your venom for an apostate to a faith you don't even claim.

Hooey. A government that secures to the individual the natural Rights of Man is worth preserving with bloodshed and gold. None other is.

The American people have been deceived that theirs is that form of government. FDR lied and lied and lied. But, you cannot fool the people forever.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 05:58 - ID#284255)
Future reality(:-)))

(Tue Nov 10 1998 06:01 - ID#39857)
before I left they said....
when on earth do as earthlings do. since arriving I have dropped that advice and tuned into Kitco. and diggers could have also followed a similar strategy, instead of being blinded by the propaganda of war. remember fourth of July 97 Aussie Treasury statement, "gold sucks"? another battle of attrition , this time on gold. the curtain has been lifted, the cone of silence is malfunctioning at LBMA. the arms that link these men are old. their network of connections is too in your face now. gonna bust up their daisy chain ?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 06:15 - ID#29048)
RANYD update
I called Fidelity yesterday twice and on both occasions was told that the share split was 7 for 10. This morning my updated account records show that the split was 1 for 3. Not good news at all, given the closing price. BBL

(Tue Nov 10 1998 06:56 - ID#365216)
gold/platinum spread
I'm looking for the gold/platinum spread to get to $30 by the end of the
week which should be a good buy signal for platinum. At that time,
going long p and short g should be a relatively safe play.

What does Namaste mean?

That is all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:05 - ID#365216)
look at me. . .
I'm talking like Ron Insane-a or Joe Whatabag ( of hot air ) lia
of Grunting and Co.; who cares what I'm "looking for". Make your
own informed decision and go with it.

Shut down the NEA.

That is all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:23 - ID#350194)
Didn't they make a movie about this called 'Flatliners'?
Personally, my patented MMEBTCM method is saying it doesn't look too healthy for Gold and Silver this week. ( Barring any unforseen, as-yet-to-come-to-the-fore major factors, that is ;- ) )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:27 - ID#185448)
Either it is sleeping or it is dead?!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:43 - ID#298380)
Au-Pl spread
General: Quite a spread your looking for. I do not think that wide a spread in that short time is feasible.
Namaste is a Hindu salutation made by joining the palms together with
thumbs toward the chest and bowing to the person being greeted.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:43 - ID#284255)
Kitco flatlining too??
Is this the lull before the storm.

Is there any reason why the markets should go up?
Is there any reason why the markets should go down?


(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:46 - ID#45173)
Rarely mentioned in the talk about the 1990s USA economic boom is the enormous contribution of cheap oil.

Any military action taken by the US against Iraq will cause in increase in the price of oil. Higher oil prices will act as a tax on businesses and consumers in the US. The Fed-predicted 1999 "sharp slowdown" that has been caused by overcapacity, import-driven deflation, and over-indebtedness may accelerate into a full-blown recession.

With recession-driven pessimism beginning to grow during the year, Y2K uncertainties will loom more ominously than now when the dominant social sentiment is optimism.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:49 - ID#288466)
Iraq thing heating up again

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:49 - ID#258427)
With RANYD asking price of 1 7/8
...that is the same as 5/8 before the split...the 52 week low.... looks like a buy to me .. to pick ranyd ( rangy ) up at the all time low price. This is assuming the 1 for 3 split which I guess is what it was.

Got Ranyd??

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:50 - ID#411440)
@ Donald: It looks like the decline in Asian currencies is
reestablishing the "flight to quality" mania that we experienced last
winter and spring. This will suck Asia back down into the deflationary
abyss that Wall St says is just a distant memory. The DOW bull
mania is back and the Asian flu is still widespread, and this thing
is not going to go away until we have a meaningful correction that
stays in American equity markets. IMHO.

The powers that be have temporarily reestablished confidance in the
financial markets, but have not fixed the underlying problems.
Once the DOW et al corrects again, the hedge fund problem will
resurface, and that confidance in the financial system will be
out the window. I think the US Fed will lower again on Nov. 17,
provided this equity market declines enough to allow them to do it.

FWIW, Rhody

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:53 - ID#288466)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 07:58 - ID#348127)

Do your math again on rangy. It was a reverse10/7 split. Price is much more expensive now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:00 - ID#284255)
Douglass Carmichael>
Start at the top.
This guy is very good.


Well worth a browse.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:07 - ID#411259)
..... Spread Play .....

Regarding the gold platinum spread:

True indeedy, it is looking attractive to make a spread play, but I would caution against it. I have some gold shorts against my long platinum, but those positions are mostly for protection and are the last I will put in. The Gold platinum spread should always increase over $30.

My views on gold are well known and actually quite simplistic. Flat to down throughout the rest of the year, with a sustained rally beginning early 1999. Time is running out to make the spread play a viable one.

Nay rather for me myself even indeedy, I'm scooping up the platinum at these bargain levels, convinced that this market will show its true face in a short time. I will roll out of platinum on the next big rally and move into long gold for early 1999.

This is a simple enough strategy, given the market that has presented itself to us. Was able to do enough cost averages, in most cases, to be able to bail below $400 in profits - even for those positions bought above $400 this summer.

Long platinum. Long Silver.. No selling of gold here, but I would be happy to buy some there.


Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:07 - ID#270253)
My take is that we had a 1 for 3 reverse split yesterday. Now the new RANYD can be converted into Randgold Resources based on 7 shares plus $2.50 = 10 Randgold Resources. Randgold Resources will be listed on Nasdaq. If Randgold Resources can hold it's recent price level in London ( $2.40 ) , the RANYD are a bargain.

This is my opinion only..totally unconfirmed.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:09 - ID#252391)
been away. . . back
And little has changed. Gold and silver after a fake rally are back to the sideways to down action of old. Gold got resoundly turned back at 296, silver less so but stopped at 5.05. And Platinum - from 349 it took two trading days to return to the bottom of the range under $340.

Notice that APH has a bullish call out but with a wide range for the "end of the correction" to play in. Not much help. And the XAU is doing what I expected - consolidating while the 50 day approaches the 200 day moving average with the possibility improving that the 50 will get above the 200 months end, setting up the basis for a confirmed and sustainable uptrend.

Right now I have the precious metal position I can sleep with - don't
know if that will be the case if gold takes out 288 which I give it a better that 2::1 shot at doing. Then of course we'll test every important number on the way down with false jumps along the way.

$296 looks like the key trigger price to me, now, failing a close above that price the trend is clearly down, and I've an insurance long position in case this stuff takes off like a rocket - wasted money to date to be sure. BUT SOMEDAY!!!! Nice to be back to read everybody's studied opinion - like I said - like I hadn't ever left.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:11 - ID#350194)
WAR - What is it Good For? Absolutely Nothing!
Let's all give it a rest arguing about the war. Aurator, there are ten million stories in the big city and mozel's opinions are just one of them. Yes, mozel, there have been many examples of ridiculous calls to battle. Hitler's War is not one of them. ( My opinion. ) Vietnam is. ( My opinion. ) Does that mean we should disrespect the memory of those who died thinking ( erroneously or not ) that they were doing something for their country? Tommorow's the day we especially remember those who have fallen, each in our own hearts, in the way we see fit. Those who feel not, hear not, are as dust in the wind. Truth lives on forever. Lest We Forget. Amen.

Bully Beef
(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:17 - ID#259282)
Dear Aurator... No sense.Humanists and Demagogues are like oil and water.
Like I said here last year, my Grandad was in WW1, My Dad in WW2,and ironically because my family originated in the US, I can wear the ribbon as a decendant of a warrior in the Revolution ( one Blue moutain boys ) . War is a dirty business but some things are wrong.There will be those who straighten things out and those who reap the benefits.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:22 - ID#333126)
yet another bear bedtime story,1

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:28 - ID#350194)
@Oliver and Aurator
Oliver - In case you show up today I want to apologize for sounding a little harsh in my Y2K comment last night. I just think that we have so much of it ( Y2K chat ) around here that the site should be renamed. Sorry I implied you watched the whole trial. BTW - Did he ever get those gloves back?
Aurator - I have Stephen's autograph on the back of one of my GOLD Century 21 cards. Just before he died, he played in a Toronto benefit for Easter Seals and I was answering phones. Quite the contrast, Stevie in his goatee and hat standing next to Stephen in his Gold Century 21 jacket!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:30 - ID#331387)
IRAQ !!!
MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa , Fla is home of the strategic planning division. Whenever things heat up in the world , I notice a long line of cars entering the base each morning. As I live 2 miles from the back entrance , I am well aware of increased car traffic. One reason the cars back up is the increased security . For the last three business days, traffic has been backed up to my entrance onto Bayshore Blvd - 2 MILES!!! Also, MacDill is home to an air tanker division and these beast must fly over my house headed east. There has been more activity and my guess that it will not be long now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:41 - ID#284255)
Y2k glitch or market crashing???^IBC&d=5d


Let alone Brazil down 2.7%

(Tue Nov 10 1998 08:44 - ID#284255)
Jakarta - just on TV
30,000 troops on the streets.

Social uprest again.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:05 - ID#183109)
RANGY/RANYD comments.
Mike Stewart/ALL @ ( Ranyd )
Regarding your post
My take is that we had a 1 for 3 reverse split yesterday. Now the new RANYD can be converted into Randgold Resources based on 7 shares plus $2.50 = 10 Randgold Resources. Randgold Resources will be listed on Nasdaq. If Randgold Resources can hold it's recent price level in London ( $2.40 ) , the RANYD are a bargain. 

Mike I certainly agree with your last line. There has been nothing but good news out lately, and theres much more to come. I really think the only reason we saw such a price drop ( assuming 1 for 3 is correct ) is that many were taking big profits by dumping shares thinking it was a 7 for 10 split.

Id like to post this 7 RANYD shares plus $2.50 = 10 Randgold Resources convertible info on my website, but before doing so Id like to make sure Ive got all the facts, iewhere did this one come from?

A good friend of mine and fellow shareholder is meeting in person with Roger Kebble this Friday, so at the very latest we should have all this and more cleared up by then.

In addition to listing R. Resources on the NASDAQ, the latest figures on the MORILA mine show total construction costs recovered in 12 months!!! Add MORILA to SYAMA and Randgold is really going to roll in the cash. Patience friends

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:12 - ID#183109)
Heres the latest on the symbol "chaos"

And more importantly, heres the latest on what really matters, digging up gold!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:16 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 175.700 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 291.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 9 Nov 1998 ) : 175.490 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 9 Nov 1998 ) : 292.050 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0129 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0000 US Dollars

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:25 - ID#242325)
Fiend's gold poll:

Ronald Jett
(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:27 - ID#413119)
MacDill AFB
Freasyberry --

I live in Tampa and work at airport. One of our mechanics has been called up to Jacksonville - helicopters. He went to Kuwait last time .... thinks he's going again.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:42 - ID#270253)
I called the Bank of New York and spoke to an ADR specialist named Vincent. They are the custodians of the Randgold Exploration ADR's. He gave me the "7 RANYD plus $2.50 for 10 Randgold Resources" info. He left me on hold for about 10 minutes. 1 - 888 - 269-2377. I suggest that you call him and then post the results here. One call will clarify this.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:44 - ID#286224)
SCHWAB instists that contrary to previous incorrect information the split was a 1 for three. That was at about 9:30 EST.

They did acknowledge that initially they were told 7 for 10.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:57 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation index continues to rise indicating good breadth. This is something that we did not see over the last couple of years. This is a positive. The juniors are stronger than they have been in a long time. This is where the breadth is coming from.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues continue to shrink. New lows have been below the benchmark level of 5 issues or less per day in eight of the last ten days. We only had one new low twice in the last week. New highs are beginning to grow as well. This is a positive.

The trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low in the Toronto gold index is at 5153 this week. The index is now at 6847.

The 200 day MA of Toronto Golds ( ^TGL on Yahoo ) is at 6351 and rising. We are on the good side of this trend.

The 220 Day MA of gold is at 294.50 and declining. This is a down trend that I would like to see broken. Negative.

All in all, slightly positive, but no conviction.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:58 - ID#348129)
@RJ 08:07
IMO you have a good strategy in place. The only thing is the Gold bull may hit earlier than 1999, but then again who am to say. We shall see very shortly.......

(Tue Nov 10 1998 09:58 - ID#339274)
FWIW Having RANGY in three different brokerage firms and all three
having a different take of the situation.I'm with Polarbear
to wait until we get the news from the horses mouth or ( ass? )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:01 - ID#212197)
@aurator: what a tragedy!
You shared this tragic story with us in you post from 2:xx this morning:

"I offer this in memoriam to all four of my grandfather's brothers who lost their lives at the Somme. Every one volunteered, not one was a

Yes, they deserve to be mourned.
I know also such stories from three our four brothers in German families.

I wonder what motivated them. Why did they volonteer? Of course I'm aware of the propaganda, desinged in Britain, to keep an unjust war going, against the huns, who cut off the fingers o0f childresn hands.

That makes the sorrow unbareable, if you see power, propaganda and the naive beliefs of good people. Misused, eternally misused.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:04 - ID#286224)
RE:RANYD & Bank of NY
I just called as well and was told they would only say they couldn/t say anything at this time - that was Davit at 1888-269-7917. That was after he talked to Vincent. So who knows?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:09 - ID#333126)
banana trade to spark trade war

almost as funny as it sounds. hehe

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:10 - ID#222231)
I'm missing something here. I purchased 5000 shares of rangy a while back at 11/16/share. My broker told me that there was a 1 for 3 reverse split. To account for the odd shares, they will be converted to the nearest 100 and the balance ( odd # of shares ) will be paid out in cash. Ergo:

5000*11/16 = $3,437.50 ( for simplicity I will ommit comms. )
5000/3=1666.67@1 15/16= $3,229.17
1600*1 15/16 = $3,100.00
+66.67*1 15/16 = $129.17
total = $3,229.17

( LOSS ) $3,437.50-$3,229.17 = ( $208.33 )

You both state that the conversion is 7 shares ranyd + $2.50 = 10 shares of rangy. Even if I use my original purchase price of 11/16 ( $0.6875/share ) ( Lower than last quote before split )

5000/10=500*7*0.6875 = $2,406.25
+500*$2.50 = $1,250.00
total = $3,656.25 or if I use last quote before split ( $0.812
500*7*0.812 = $2,842.00
+500*$2.50 = $1,250.00
total = $4,092.00


Best regards,


John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:13 - ID#24135)
Stephen Spender notwithstanding ..
for Salty ..
WW One was fought over Austria's attempt to annex
Serbia .. So what if it had .. would anything have
changed .. BUT as a result of WW I we got WW 2 and
mean Adolph because Germany after losing had to pay
excessive reparations .. we also got the Russian
revolution because food shipments to Russia via the
Bosphorus were stopped and the Germans sent Lenin
to Russia ...
Had everybody just left the Serbs to take care of
themselves .. things would have been a lot better
Mozel in my view is completely correct .. I am better
equipped to take care of my affairs than I am to take
care of yours or anybody else's and vice versa ..
if we start taking care of each others interests and
then toss Christianity in the pot for good measure ..
.. God help us all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:16 - ID#413109)
GOOD NEWS or an error
Asked my broker about a reverse split in RANGY, NOW RANYD, and was
told she knew of no split, and I hold the same amount of shares as

If that's the case, guys, we've all made some money.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:20 - ID#290172)
ask not for whom the bell tolls...
Tue., Nov. 10, 1998 at: Lon 12:58 p.m. Pra 1:58 p.m. NY 7:58 a.m. HK 7:58 p.m. Inside China Today Press Review on Nov. 10, 1998

Global Economy and the Titanic
( Editor's Note: The following is a summary of an editorial by Ma Weimin in Tuesday's People's Daily ) .

The French newspaper Liberation Daily recently published an editorial comparing the fate of the global economy to the ship Titanic.

Because of an obsession with speed, the Titanic took a shorter route and neglected security measures. In the end, it sank. A similar thing happened to liberalism and global economics with the financial crisis.

When the Titanic sank, it had 3,503 people on board, but the capacity of its lifeboats was only 1,178 seats, because the shipping company that built it did not take the third class passengers in account. When establishing the global economic system, Western decision-makers gave little thought to Third World countries. No lifeboat was included for them.

The situation in Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines today is a result of this policy. The industrialized nations, as the captains of the global economy, must therefore take greater responsibility to avoid a second major crisis.

INSIDE CHINA TODAY Notes:The financial crisis that swept Southeast Asia, South Korea and even Japan is a political victory for Beijing. By combining strict state controls - a heritage of its centrally planned economy - and not devaluing the renminbi, China has managed to stop the crisis at its borders and in return as gained worldwide support from economists and politicians.

While Beijing does not reject the idea of a global economy, which it knows is essential to its development through technology transfers, foreign investment, and exports, it is still calling for certain controls over its financial markets and trade.

This position is echoed in Europe, where socialist-led governments have taken over in leading countries and it seems a new Sino-European consensus, critical of the U.S. ultra-liberalism, is being formed.

COMMENT: and there is the game-plan folks...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:25 - ID#222231)
Hello my good friend. There is much confusion regarding rangy. There was definitly a 1 for 3 reverse split according my broker and yahoo news releases. I sincerely hope you are correct. We will wait and see as this too shall pass.

Best regards,


Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:26 - ID#270253)
My take on this..and it is unconfirmed.. is that 7 RANYD plus $2.50 will get you ten RANDGOLD RESOURCES not Randgold Exploration. Randgold Resources is listed in London.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:32 - ID#290172)

To clarify-all those 'cheap' Asean goods will be VERY cheap in terms of the amount of gold necessary to purchase
Just a grain or twoof GOLDNOT dollars
Europe, China, Japan, BIS  AND GOLD

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:35 - ID#333126)
more cool bananas

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:44 - ID#339274)
FWIW NEM is breaking out on the upside

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:45 - ID#286224)
Bank of NY just returned my call.
He said definately a 1 for 3
New CUSIP # 753009307

No mention of any offers of convertability of any sort but it's still early.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:46 - ID#298259)
SDRer...any confirmation ECB has declassified gold as reserve asset...
BY LARRY EDELSON Nov issue Safe Money Report


Gold is not behaving according to Hoyle. After
clearing the $300 level a half dozen times in
October, gold failed to hold its gains. Now,
it's trading back near support at the $275 to
$290 level.

This is not a good sign. It tells me that
deflation is holding a tight grip on the
world's financial markets. Moreover, it's also
a potential signal that recent government
attempts to reflate world economies could be

Plus, there's another reason to believe gold
could be in trouble. According to my inside
sources in Europe, the new European Central
Bank ( ECB ) has unofficially declassified gold
as a reserve asset. This means the new central
bank can treat gold like any other asset.
Bottom line: Without official reserve status,
it would be much easier for the ECB to sell
gold in the open market.

In the worst case, gold could drop through
near-term support, fall like a rock and then
test major long-term support at $190 to $200.
Then, a new, much firmer bottom would be

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:47 - ID#286224)
Where'd you hear that about RANYD?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:48 - ID#288466)

Called my broker @ Solomon Smith Barney to inform him of the arbitrage opportunity with the confusion on the reverse split. Not to worry - these guys will fish out the truth and put the shares where they should be, probably by the end of day today.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:50 - ID#31868)
General, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:51 - ID#286224)
So now the ECBs can revalue their godl at spot?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:55 - ID#250298)
10 November
To all US Marines reading Kitco: HAPPY BIRTHDAY...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:57 - ID#269409)
@ Aurator... you're right
Re your messages on Mozellian thinking, I must say you stated it well. Regardless of all the "Arm chair quarterback" garbage we read here about WHY Hitler came to power, etc..... second guessing aside, once the evil beast is unleashed, it must be contained or we're all slashed to pieces by it's claws.

Didn't the U.S. aid, abet, and arm Saddam? Yes indeed...because we don't have 20/20 foresight do we? Should we become isolationist then, and all pretend the rest of the world doesn't exist? If so we're no better than the beasts with their little "territories".

As to Christian principles of personal freedom... Mozel better go back and read his bible a little more. Jesus message was consistently about giving up personal rights and freedoms in order to help and serve others and in so doing, serve God. There's not one iota of "selfish" philosophy in his message.

Then we have Christ saying "Render unto Ceasar what is Ceasars, and unto God what is God's" DIRECT referenmce to what was being thought of as unfair taxation without representation.

Then we have the early church of ACTS and all the writings of Paul...which indicate that they took Christ's teaching to heart by adopting a completely socialist system, "Holding all things in common and distributing as anyone had need"... Of course this was not looked upon as a SECULAR economic model by the church, but one to follow within the church itself within the core body of believers.

If anything, selfishness and "personal individual rights" are the very human traits we're instructed to try and overcome throughout the bible, not the ones we're supposed to strive to achieve.

We live in a different world now...I'm not a socialist...nor do I believe God would ask me to become one. I believe we have one of the best forms of Govt., based as it is on the constitution, and Bill of Rights, diluted or not.

Yet I DO believe we have responsibilities and duties that far exceed our
individual "rights" to pursue perosnal happiness. These responsibilities should primarily be accomplished voluntarily...but some ARE indeed more efficiently and fairly handled through an elected Government.

Conservative Republican / Libertarian though I may be...I would NEVER want a return to the days of feudalism, child labor in coal mines, a small elite wealthy class ruling over powerless masses of peasants, folks dying in the millions because they can't access medical care, etc. etc. etc.

It's in NO ONE's best interest for men to believe that they should be responsible, ONLY for themselves... with no regard for their fellow man.

Selfishness is no Christian virtue.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 10:57 - ID#339274)
FWIW if 7 RANYD + 2.50 =10 RANDGOLD Resources is a hell of a deal.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:01 - ID#31868)
jls, Namaste' gulp and a Happy Birthday to the Marines...yup...
Gulp and a puff to each and every one of them...

Real Money
(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:04 - ID#40881)
Perspective of an old goldbug
It takes patience to be a goldbug. I have been waiting for the big gold boom for many years. Right after the inflation surge of the late seventies I was convinced that after a brief pause, that the inflation rate would continue onward and upward. The US dollar, after all, had been losing buying power for decades, and since the official price of gold had finally been released from the US government's control in the early seventies, it would surely surge. Well, it did for a while, but not enough in my mind to offset the debasing of the USD. When the human mind perceives A + B = C, it expects C to follow immediately after in recognizes A + B. But reality attaches no such neat and tidy time frame. From the early eighties on I waited and expected, a continued rise in inflation and a corresponding rise in the POG. Again, gold rose and fell but not enough to suit me. In charting both the USD and gold I discovered that if the USD chart was inverted it produced a close reflection of the POG action. So apparently, regardless of the money supply, the POG was following the "market price" of the USD, which is logical since gold is priced in US dollars. This relationship has continued since Nixon closed the gold window in the early seventies, with the exception of various market aberrations, ie; ME wars, oil embargoes etc. Therefore, the conclusion that I come to is the POG will not boom ( over $1000 ) , until the market price of the USD declines proportionately. I don't see this happening until the USD is replaced as a reserve currency and all of those USDs are pulled out of storage and are circulated or repatriated. The EURO may do the job, but it won't happen overnight. ( If I remember correctly, the EURO will be phased in from January 1999 to June of 2002. ) So while waiting for the big move in gold I have resorted to playing the "bounces" in the trend channels. Percentage wise, the August to October move in XAU was quite impressive, but I'm still waiting for "THE BIG ONE".

( :- )

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:06 - ID#270253)
I got my info from Vincent at the Bank of NY. I called him yesterday in the early afternoon. He just blurted out the details and I took notes as best I could. The double transaction caught me off guard but I think that Ive got the details. I still consider my take to be unconfirmed until someone else gets the same info.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:07 - ID#35571)
Rubin,Rubin, now is speaking, what a great world this would be if...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:13 - ID#35571)
Well, I gave the gold lever a little tug, let's see what it does.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:21 - ID#269409)
Strong Economic numbers
Productivity up, jobless claims down, auto sales up, etc. No deflationary crash coming......

Tuesday November 10, 10:56 am Eastern Time

POLL -- U.S. economic indicators - November 9 week

DATE EST/GMT Indicator Period Avg Fcast Prev Report
11/09 1100/1600 ISI Co. Index w/e 11/6 46.3-A 46.1
11/10 0900/1400 BTM/Schroders w/e 11/7 +0.7 pct-A -1.0 pct
11/10 1000/1500 Productivity Q3'98-Pre +2.3 pct-A +0.3 pct-R
Unit Labor Costs +1.7 pct-A +3.7 pct-R

11/10 1000/1500 Wholesale Inv September +1.2 pct-A +1.1 pct-R

11/10 1000/1500 Rich Fed Surv Oct -4 ship/9 svc-A -6/+9
11/10 1440/1940 Redbook w/e 11/7 NA +0.6 pct
11/11 Veterans Day Holiday
11/12 0830/1330 Jobless Claims w/e 11/7 311,000 312,000
11/12 1200/1700 Chicago Fed Index Sept NA 125.9
11/13 0830/1330 Retail Sales Oct +0.5 pct +0.3 pct
ex-autos +0.2 pct +0.1 pct
11/13 0830/1330 Producer Prices Oct +0.1 pct +0.3 pct
ex-Food/Energy unch +0.4 pct
11/13 0900/1400 Atlanta Fed Index Oct NA -1.0
11/13 1000/1500 U Mich Sentiment Nov-pre 97.2 97.4

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:22 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 175.700 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 291.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 175.811 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 292.250 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0129 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 10 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0000 US Dollars

Lan Man
(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:24 - ID#317183)
@Fustrated over Safe Money Report
Don't read to much into what Larry Edelson states, he flops around more than a fish out of water. Seems that just a month or so ago he stated that gold was going to $340. and silver to $4.00. Whipsaw!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:25 - ID#35571)
...the men were all transported across the euro sea...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:25 - ID#22157)
Sharefin (Future Reality, Dairy of a Snowshoveller)
Hillarious, still laughing,

We got it all wrong, why bother wit gold, Yahoo, that's where the money is, has trippled since September...

Anyone knows of Puts for YHOO, it's getting ripe for the picking. Looks like the PPT is chasing the high tech index. Why on earth do those mericans want to keep the stock market up, look at the Europeans, haven't retraced not even half of their losses, I wonder who is the clever one.

My eyes are tricking me again, XAU up to 80, please don't wake me up.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:26 - ID#45173)
Then, no rate change coming, either.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:26 - ID#298259)
not sure what ..."un"officially...would allow them to do. SDRer is much more imformed on this than I...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:29 - ID#35571)
Rachel, Rachel, I've been thinking...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:30 - ID#31868)
mozel, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...yes I read the article and in fact posted it
last evening or in the early morning...I agree with the article...100%Clintler has divided the country ( and the world ) and I believe various groups in and out of the USA will pay dearly because of this division...a damn shame ( shame is actually a pale word to describe my thoughts in this regard ) but one of those facts of life which nobody cares for and certainly no sane individual would desire to witness...and definitely not be a participant in...the toll will be heavy and the retribution harsh to say the leastsuffering suksintentionally creating suffering is a crime against all decent people in the worldClintler is the suffering poster boyhistory will speak ill of this dirtbag

This Clintler bastard and those who run him have created tensions which have and will lead to more bloodshedand those who will suffer the most are the fine men and women in the military. Clintler is on record as saying he loathed the United States militarythe deserter Presidentmakes one sickand should fill Americans with disgust

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:38 - ID#31868)
Interesting read...I respect anyone who speaks their is bs no matter how falsely polite...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:44 - ID#298259)
Lan Man...
I agree, but Larry is only saying the POG "could" fall in the near term His longer-term outlook is still very positive. He is only recommending subscribers place protective stop losses...not to sell.

I have not fould anyone who has correctly predicted the short-term direction of the POG except maybe our own APH...and I am hoping he is correct in his prediction for a short-term pull-back...that is what I see and have unloaded most of gold mutual funds hoping to buy back in at a little better price. I have found short-term trading has been my only salvation of late. I am still holding on to a "boat load" of individual gold stocks which are considerably down from where I bought them 2 years ago and I have been buying and selling additional shares in the short term.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:49 - ID#333126)
trade barriers and inflation

germany and france sport lower inflation ( ? ) rates

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:52 - ID#286249)
Frustrated-it is in EU LAW! [about 25 years worth! {:-))

One suspects that there will be many, MANY stories about 'tisn't sooooo'
But it IS [there is that verb again]

See: EUR-Lex: Legal act 396R2223 Council Regulation ( EC ) No 2223/96
of 25 June 1996 on the European system of national and regional accounts in the Community Official journal NO. 75FINAL


(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:54 - ID#258273)
LGB on deflation
Deflation is a global event. It can not be refuted with short term statistics from within an individual nation. For example, isolated hyperinflations are common within a deflation. The only way to see it is to add all economies together and get a long term trend line.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:58 - ID#254321)
Market trends bullish short term -- busy -- brief note
All: For whatever it is worth ( what you paid for ) I reviewed my graphical analysis of the US markets last night -- and noticed that the current rally consists of two short-term rallies, each with dropping volumes as the rally drops off. Bullish.

I follow the Worden indicators, one of which is an index of how many stocks are more than two standard deviations above the mean price -- this is very bullish right now. And Worden Brothers, who are pretty good at short term trends, are also very bullish.

So my guess is that the short-term ( weeks ) market rally will continue -- and I would caution anyone not to bet heavily against it.

Interestingly, my Fedelity select defense mutual fund -- of which I follow a stock composite so that I can get volume trends, shows the same bullish pattern. Further, the negative volume index is trending positively. I have made 10% in my select defense holdings since the current rally began. I missed the Oil rally ( rats! ) but now that one is not so easy to read.

On that note, I would like to express my appreciation to everyone last night who resolved the issue of the Auto sales trend in the US. I think a reasonable consesnus is that they are still up from last year, but that the amount of special deals the manufacturers have to offer to get buyers is apparently a record. It seems also that the personal savings rate in the US has dropped dramatically - this needs to be confirmed from other sources -- but I am pretty sure it is correct. Thus it is a good guess that auto sales will be reduced significantly by this time next year -- how can the manufacturers drum up any more business next year if they have already depleted the markets of any potential new car buyers with all of these incredible deals?

What do I think of all this? We are approaching a major recession in the US, and the effect of this will probably hit the US markets within 6 months or so. Undoubtedly AG knows this. Hence he must lower rates some more, or at the very least expand the money supply. This reminds me of the 1991-1993 situation when we had a gold rally during the fiscal stimulus created to bring us out of the last recession. This time may be as good for gold if AG can expand the money supply fast enough.

It will be interesting to see how AG deals with this problem, as we are moving from a period in the US where corporate incomes were enhanced significantly due to increased efficiency from computerization, to a period where costs due to the y2k problem will decrease earnings. And, we know that there are many other serious factors that will be a drag on the economy.

If gold does not go up, that is a likely sign that AG did not expand the money supply fast enough, and we may be headed for a depression.

So -- it is hard to imagine that this market bull phase will last too much longer, even if we do reach DOW 10,000. Could be we are approaching the final blowoff of this long-term rally.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 11:59 - ID#286249)
RE-"Monetary Gold" and "De-monetized" gold...

Folks, the change is an ASSET ALLOCATION change.
Gold moves from bin 'monetary' to bin 'valuables'
Both bins are in the SAME VAULT! {:- ) )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:06 - ID#335379)
Hello LGB, Very well put.
Almost any form of culture/government would work IF, men gave from thier hearts.
USA is still the most giving nation on earth. We have gobmints/culture "rules"
because we are not giving from the heart. Weather we believe or not, ALL that comes to us is a gift. For the joy of others to live, we give freely what we have all barrowed.
For the joy set before Him, dispizing the shame, He submitted Himself to death on a cross and gave Himself up for us. More than just an awsome example......
If anyone on this form desires to follow the path of selfishness, look to Klinton, as perhaps God's message to us about our own affairs..... Do we really desire Klinter's power so much, that we would be like him?
Gold is for rebuilding futures, not hording to one's own hurt.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:11 - ID#286249)
Nowadays we need to monitor POG in different monies

Some of this was posted this past weekend, and I'm working on the model so that a comprehensible sharing will be possible soon ( hopefully ) .
Suffice to say, POG in USD [only] isn't going to tell us what we want to know.
We have to monitor in XEU [Euro], the SDR and the Gold SDR.
Gold is the center. Gold is the ruler. Gold is the MONEY of choice.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:15 - ID#298259)
Thank you oh learned one. Where would we be without you. As for me I'm pretty much lost no matter what.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:16 - ID#286249)
Lan Man--Great catch on the Mae family problems yesterday!
For which my thanks...this has been on the radar screen for some time. Most particularly after Russia imploded. [Fannie had a presence there too!] One suspects this is the Grand Disaster hovering in the wings...
Again, thanks for an important post. {:- )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:16 - ID#369352)
Frustrated - POG
Even though the EC may have taken gold out of reserve status, it does not change the balance of supply and demand...this picture is now changing and in favor of demand outstripping supply...this will keep the POG in good support levels. Granted, you may see some CB selling gold, but it would be into a buying market and the CB's would be the losers. If you look at Coin World Magazine, as I do, you would see over the course of the last 6 months that 2 things are evidant...1 ) that numismatic gold coins are increasing in value at a surprising rate ( the best grades the highest ) and 2 ) people who make a living selling gold coins are aggressive buyers...ALSO, the gov't just reported that gold sales in the US have been the highest ever and that it is 2 1/2 times that of last year sales!! This is the start of a very BIG bull market at the grass roots level...not everybody is as stupid as the gov't would like to believe we are! When the physical gold supply disappears and all that is left is the "paper gold shorts"...then you will see the "World of hurt" come upon those who don't have any! Buy yours now or beg for it later...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:19 - ID#254321)
Fannie Mae et al?
SDRer: How about a brief synopsis -- I missed that one. How can the MAE family be in trouble unless they are involved in debt outside the US? Derivatives trading?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:22 - ID#286249)
Frustrated--You are doing
just fine! .9995 at least! {:- ) )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:22 - ID#298259)
Skip...if you are out there...
I just sold off the last of my gold mutual funds at the 12:00pm price...ouch...I feel your pain.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:25 - ID#286249)
JTF--well, for OPENERS, contemplate this one!
( 2 ) Kabushiki Shinbun
February 24, 1997
"Princeton Fund" is Inwardly Popular-The Average Performance Rate is 30%

Funds Raised Reached Yen 150 Billion

Princeton Economic Institute Inc. ( Whose Chairman is Mr. Martin Armstrong ) Manages the Funds
"To explain the contents of the product, the Yen funds raised being converted into the US Dollar are INVESTED IN THE FANNIE MAE BONDS ( MORTGAGED BONDS GUARANTEED BY FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION ) . THE FANNIE MAE BONDS are treated as same as the US government bonds which have the rating of AAA. Holding the bonds yields 5.2 - 2.5% p.a. and P Fund, when they judge a good investment opportunity has come, takes a position in Futures/Options targeting main markets of the world by using 20% of Fannie Mae bonds as collateral.

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:25 - ID#24135)
Armchair quarterback .. dreams of glory days ..
To Salty..
Read Bugal's latest effort and tell me if you would
want HIM to be deciding what would be in YOUR best
interests. This is the kind of self serving "altruism"
that gave us items like "Operation Restore Hope" in
Somalia ... well now if we had done a Mozel on
Somalia and said simply that it was none of our
business .. we'd all been better off .. including the
Somalis ..

... please pardon the view of an armchair quarterback..
... think Ill doze off now .. watch platinum continue
to fall .. Ill wake up at the next Bugal call .. maybe
he'll tell us more about child labour .. and start
introducing "progressive" legislation ... you gotta
love him .. straight sincerity .. just like WJC ..
and homespun too ..
PS .. also see Nicodemus .. these two guys
could handle your interests MUCH better than you
could yourself .. and it would be more Christian
too .. I betcha ..

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:30 - ID#24135)
Mozel is two for two ..
1. Exposing Fako moon walk.
2. Exposing Misguided Altruism.

... keep up good work

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:31 - ID#350179)
do you see any particular intraday support level as being critical for the XAU today?

I've got my finger on the "sell" button and will press it if 78.5 is broken within the next half-hour. ( actually if FGLDX looks to drop to 1.91 or lower near the close )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:33 - ID#373403)
So for us holders of RANGY, when do we find out the deal? Do we wait for a letter from the broker or the company?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:38 - ID#298259)
Don't you worry me gold coins and lots of gold stocks - nobody is scaring me away. Unless there is a limit-up day, Fidelity's Select hourly priced gold funds provide quick entry...and exit - and I will be back in...just too heavily weighted in gold now to sleep at night. Not looking forward to the possible tax loss selling which may occur in the gold sector.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:39 - ID#119358)
@good dayO senores rangitOs...........
this is probably stoooopid........but I just voted against all 7 motions on the latest rangitO proxy. It was kinda' fun to vote online.... This is my retaliation for kebble's fumbling of the split/conversion mess....a dunce move. GO GOLDBUGS!!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:42 - ID#343171)
who knows when we get tossed the info-bone on the details
of the deal; all we know for sure is that the split was done
poorly, caused much confusion and depressed the price a
further 20%, hey otherwise all is cool. better off with the
sheep buying YHOO and AMZN.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:43 - ID#254321)
Price of gold
SDRer: Please let us know what basket of currencies you are using to estimate the value of gold.

I did something interesting recently -- I multiplied the DXY0 by the US dollar price of gold. The product has been dropping steadily for years -- can't remember how many -- indicating the rise in the US dollar has not been sufficient to compensate for the drop in the price of gold.

This is highly suggestive of a long term deflationary process. I would be glad to modify my graph and post it on Kitco when you tell us how we should be pricing gold.

My intuitive guess is that we will still find that the 'real' ( non US dollar ) price of gold is still dropping, but that the value of other goods is dropping faster.

Incidentally, my graphs indicate that since Jan 1998, commodity prices ( cry0 ) have been dropping steadily relative to the price of gold ( both in US dollars, so the effect of the dollar cancels ) .

Looks like we are experiencing the scenario that Donald so eloquently expressed some time ago -- the price of gold may be 'dropping', but it is rising compared to other items -- such as fiat currency, and more recently -- commodities. There was a similar time in the 70's when this happened.

Of course, my scenario does not apply to any countries that have had gold 'fire sales' such as SEAsia. The number of countries post financial collapse seems to be rising steadily. And -- the price of gold is clearly rising in all of them. South American next, IHMO, though China may be a close second.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:43 - ID#269409)
@ John Disney
Re your 12:30... I'm all for folks accepting Mozel's number 2.... if they can first buy into his number 1..... The two have analogous credibility.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:46 - ID#284255)
Not all indicators are bullish.

Not the tick rolling over

Also the vix bottoming out and m/a crossing over.

And my swing also pointing to these markets entering a selling phase.

Global indices all starting to show red for the first time in weeks.
We could well be at the edge of the greatest bull trap in history.

When Oldman came out with the figure of 13,000, well???

Put me down for the short side.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:47 - ID#269409)
@ Big Fisherman.... You say delfation..I say tomaato
I agree deflation has ocurred in some economies over the past 2 years...but the question I now ask is, if we are going to "cure" the global trend with liquidity ( which the FED and the EU and the G7 all seem to agree will be done.. ) .... won't this lead to an inflationary period?

Not if you believe in total global deflationary collapse it won't. But I don't buy that scenario. We're on the rebound already. Some inflation in our future....

(Tue Nov 10 1998 12:50 - ID#369352)
SDRer - PEI post
You'll notice that the performance of PEI in the article shows an ever decreasing rate of in 1996 at 17% down from 50%+ in an ever sliding scale...I would like to see their performance for 1998...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:00 - ID#369352)
LGB - Deflation
LGB, deflation is a direct result of inflation...that's why you are seeing it now...think of someone who over the years has been spending more money than what he makes...then he finds that his debts outstrip his ability to pay them...he then is forced to sell all he has gained during his inflated years at depressed prices as he goes through bankruptcy....but the rest of the world is still in an inflationary cycle, but he is now in a deflationary cycle...This is what's happening in the world today...those with the highest inflationary budgets are the ones who went first, thus the delation now being seen in the world...but next will be the bigger spenders as it struggles to meet the demand of the inflation machine...for the inflation machine to continue forward, you must feed it ever more than before...if you don't then it turns on you...and then becomes your enemy, thus starts the deflation...or better put currency devaluation...but gold never devalues, ergo, never loses its real value...that's why those who are positioned in gold never have a problem with deflation...because they never have lost's like being on an island all your own!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:02 - ID#431200)
Randgold Resources on London Stocks Exchange
How can I get the price of Randgold Resources on London Stocks Exchange ?Thanks.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:06 - ID#269409)
@ John Disney... Misguided altruism
Should we all personally build the road, rail, and transit systems that lead to our own homes, towns, cities, or enlist the Gobmnt to do it?

Should we boot all the penniless old folks off Social security tomorrow and let them starve?

Should we eliminate unemployment insurance and let the bastards who lose their jobs, ( and their kids ) ...go homeless and starve before they have a chance to ahieve new employment?

Scrap medicare and let em all die of disease?

Maybe we should scrap the school system and let just the "rich folk" provide an education to their kids, yes?

Maybe we shouldn't have that big expensive military. We could have let Hitler take Europe and strenghten till he came to our door with Nukes a few years later? We could have fought im off with our "malitia's" and our handguns right?

Should U.S. citizens send aid to the folks in decimated Honduras?

Maybe we could go back to the good old days of slavery.... after all, may believed their individual "rights" were pre-iminint over those of folks brought here aginst their will. Who was the arrogant SOB Lincoln to say otherwise? Does he not know that Jefferson owned slaves? The very author of the Bill of Rights that said all men are created equal and entitled to the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness?

If folks are comitting crimes of child abuse or molestation, who are we to step in and intervene...right? Damned do-gooders.

Listen... I DESPISE Bill Clinton and his happy band of fraudulent socialists...and the whole ultra left group of phonies that the Democratic party has become. Lyndon Johnson and his "new deal" welfare state CREATED misery rather than relieving it...on this we would agree I hope. FDR...well.... Socialist security has become a runaway entitlement beyond what it was designed ought to be overhauled and made "honest"....., but not scrapped. FDR, much as I cringe at the thought of his ideals...helped us out of the great depression and relieved a lot of misery in this a time when that kind of action was appropriate. I have to hold my nose to say it but it's true.

Every endeavor of Govt. is not a bad one. And it doesn't mean that SOME safety net and provision for opportunity is appropriate for our less fortunate fellows...which is by the way in our own best interest as well.

Balance.... balance....

A conservative can be compassionate as well.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:06 - ID#35571)
Von Finck dosn't believe in the Euro

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:07 - ID#339274)
FWIW time and price squared yesterday afternoon on the hourly,
XAU made a perfect retracement at 77.6 yesterday morning.
Price action indicates low volatility two days ahead.
My stop on NEM has been raised to the day's low of 22 1/8.
XAU stop would be 77.8

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:07 - ID#194311)
Silent waters churning in the deep....rotten basis to real estate.
Criimi Mae's Chapter 11 Filing Puts REITs on Edge

By Jerry Knight
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 9, 1998; Page F07

If you want to understand why the Federal Reserve intervened to prevent the collapse of the
giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management L.P., drop by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in

The bankruptcy reorganization case of Criimi Mae Inc. of Rockville is a miniature version of
the market chaos that might have ensued if Long-Term Capital had gone under, shaking the
world financial system.

Criimi's crash into bankruptcy court has rocked the worldwide market for bonds backed by
mortgages on commercial buildings, triggering turmoil that affects major players in a business
with billions of dollars in annual revenue. The damage will likely spread far beyond Criimi's
shareholders, whose stock is worth only a fraction of what they paid for it.

Though their business strategies were different, Criimi Mae and Long-Term Capital were the
biggest players in their highly specialized businesses.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:08 - ID#35571)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:08 - ID#269409)
@ trader-vic
I agree with you ...the bubble expands too much and it may burst. As it has in Asia where debt to asset ratios were SOOOO extraordinarily high. But I think that the demographics are such in U.S. and EU..., that expanding economic activity is in the cards, and not the reverse.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:08 - ID#375108)
Gales of November approaching the sweet seas...
...but eerily calm on comex gold in New York. Which way will it break? This is the anniversary of the tragic sinking of the "Edmund FitzGerald", and a similar storm that took her down is sweeping through the Great Lakes today...60 MPH winds forecast for Toronto tonight...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:12 - ID#290172)
trader vic...there seems to be a bit of that
going round {:- ) )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:12 - ID#404312)

silver is about to move much higher.
it's 1:05 and both gold and silver seem to have held.

the chart over the last 5 weeks has traced out a pattern nearly identical to the weekly silver chart of dec-feb 87. March saw a 5.00+ move. don't expect a proportional move here, but watch out if we break 505 and 508.

weekly charts indicate both gold and silver have bottomed. probably will wait until my 50+ call options expire fri, but I'll get even soon.

gold 293.7 looking strong
silver 5.005 dead in the water, should be moving down if it is going down

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:15 - ID#190411)
I voted the same way. Amazing incompetence.
I also sent them a nasty email on the cost of the two annual reports that I got.
They didn't reply.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:17 - ID#369352)
Frustrated - Worry
Yes I worry, a lot...that's why we're in gold/stocks...I really worry about the $100 Trillion in derivatives out there that are uncovered and unable to be covered...I worry about the hedge funds where the managers are on an ego trip that last left them on the moon...I worry about the kid who graduated 3 years ago from Warten's School of business with an MBA making $150,000/yr+ and has never seen a bear market, but still keeps feeding this inflationary bull as if it will never end...I worry about the gov't lying so much in every aspect of our lives that you as an individual have lost all rights or control...I worry that the manipulation will end, and the markets will crash so fast that when you wake up in the morning, you won't have to worry about jumping back into the gold market, because the gold market is locked limit up and will not allow trading...and gold stocks will be so expensive that you don't have enough money to buy one share of a gold mining company...because it will take a wheel barrell of US$ for the exchange...I worry about the chaos which will follow and the gov't troops that will be dispatched to maintain civil order.........Just like in Jakarta....................

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:18 - ID#34459)
XAU Again
G'Day Mates.......Excellent action in the XAU of late, UpTrend is firmly entrenched. A strong upmove could get underway at any time now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:23 - ID#284255)
Hong Kong dragging its feet.
With little over a year to go, the picture of what will happen to business in Hong Kong remains distinctly cloudy.

While some companies started working on the problem up to a decade ago, others are only just, it seems, confronting the issues.

"We call these dead-on-arrival cases," said Kevin Taylor, a Hong Kong-based director of high-tech consulting firm James Martin & Co.

"We already know these companies will not succeed in being ready."

Work carried out by the Software Productivity Research consulting group suggested that unless a company had started work on Y2K in 1995 it was unlikely to have all its systems corrected in time for 2000.

"In many ways the global financial crisis of 1997-98 may well turn out to be a warm-up act for the Y2K main event," Deutsche Bank chief economist Edward Yardeni warned.

"In both cases one of the central issues was counterparty risk."

The banking and financial sector is one of the heaviest users of technology and inherently more at risk because of the complex intra-institution lending and settlement systems.

"In theory, a non-compliant bank anywhere in the world could trigger a chain reaction from counterparty to counterparty which could reverberate throughout the entire banking system," concluded a study of the issue by investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Barings summed up its interpretation in this way: "Investing could become an act of faith as inadequate disclosure makes it almost impossible to assess whether companies are meeting compliance targets."

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:25 - ID#290172)
Kiwi, JTF--Shovels at the ready? {:-))
C. Thursday October 15, 2:18 am Eastern Time

TOKYO, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - James Johnson, chairman of Fannie Mae, said on Thursday that the company's benchmark notes have been in strong demand by Asian investors and pledged to continue its commitment to investors in the region.

US mortgages widen as late selling overtakes buys
NEW YORK, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - Prices of U.S. mortgage-backed securities ( MBS ) were flat to firmer late Friday and mostly outperformed Treasuries, but buying that marked most of the day gave way to selling, sources said.

"We have seen the originators start to come back in and sell," said Alec Crawford, mortgage strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Donald Fines, chief bond market strategist at Chase Asset Management, added: "This action could confirm many investors' greatest fear -- that there is another major financial crisis brewing that none of us can see yet, that could send the world into more economic chaos, and send the markets plunging even further."

raison d'tre?
Participants said there were three lists out for bid from Ellington on Wednesday; securities being shopped around included inverse Ios ( interest only securities ) and structured IOs such as PAC ( planned amortization class ) IOs. Sources familiar with the lists said they totaled ``a couple of hundred million.''

Investors said pass-throughs may have performed well this session, but they noted that Wall Street dealers were reluctant to take on structured MBS such as CMOs.

Also, dealers were said to have become increasingly reluctant to offer financing in transactions where less liquid structured MBS are used as collateral. Much of the widening in spreads has been most dramatic in structured MBS.

An East Coast portfolio manager attributed the significant widening in CMOs to a widening in pass-through spreads which occurred last week on the heels of large-scale mortgage banker selling. According to market players, lenders sold off pass-throughs when Treasuries weakened.

( 2 ) US mortgages rocket with Tsys on surprise Fed move
NEW YORK, Oct 15 ( Reuters ) - U.S. mortgage-backed securities prices wasted no time in joining the rush to higher levels alongside the U.S. Treasury and stock markets Thursday after a surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Some of the 30-year discount mortgage coupons were closely tracking the rally in the long end of Treasuries, BUT THE EVEN HIGHER MOMENTUM OF THE 10-YEAR WAS CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR MORTGAGE PLAYERS.

Late Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced a cut in the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, to 5.0 percent, and in the discount rate of 25 basis points, to 4.75 percent.

COMMENT: This is a small window through which to peek...{:- )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:27 - ID#290172)
Gollum re: "Von Finck dosn't believe in the Euro"
or the dollar, or the yen or any other fiat...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:27 - ID#339274)
FWIW the VSE starting to boil,CLH trading for .89,QTR as well

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:30 - ID#35571)
But he DOES like gold. My kind of guy.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:31 - ID#432130)
I agree with you whole-heartedly. However I have concerns about the POG and gold stock investment values, because of world wide deflation. On one hand I hope you are right, and on the other hand I dont want to see all the crap that has to happen to cause the issues you brought up.

go gold, go silver, dont go Bearx!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:34 - ID#341294)
You know, I really respect the opinions of everyone on this forum. Even though I have a great education & a wealth of business experience, most times I feel rather inadequate compared to you all. However, I do not buy your "deflation" theory. You need to go grocery shopping for several weeks in a row with your significant other to get a feel for what is going on out there. NOTHING IS GETTING CHEAPER. A friend of mine owns a very lucrative convenience store, and Saturday he told me that virtually everything he sells has increased in price - pop, beer, liquor, staples, everything. I'm 50 years old. When I was a teenager, you could buy a package of Hostess Cupcakes ( 2 cakes ) for $0.10 & no sales tax. Today, the same package of cupcakes is $0.99 + tax of 7.25%, and the sales tax is to be increased to 8.25% on Jan. 1, 1999. It doesn't taker a math wiz to figure the ave yearly increase on just this one product. The only thing this year that I notice as holding steady is gas & new car prices, but they certainly are not decreasing. To my knowledge, there has never been a formal devaluation of the US dollar in my lifetime, but nevertheless, the the dollar has been devalued. I believe that is what we are witnessing - a systematic, rather rapid devaluation of the dollar. One of you was right on the money several weeks ago when the yen was going for about 140 yen to the dollar. That person noted that the concensus was that the yen was worth 10 - 15% more than that versus the dollar. That poster was right on the money. Isn't the yen trading for about 117 yen to the dollar now?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:40 - ID#190411)
It's official, 3/1
RANYD will return to RANGY in one month.
We were hosed.
From RANGY central.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:40 - ID#119358)
I don't want to calculate what kebble's lark just cost the neighborhood of 35g.....probably ought to sooooo the dumb bastard. anywhooooooo.....salud to YA!!!! for sending them a nasty note! and a G&P to YA!!! too.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:46 - ID#194311)
BANC ONE..Holds $38 billion in unwanted mortgages..debt,debt,debt
You'd think they'd rather have gold in their vaults like the Swiss?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:50 - ID#119358)
@ERLE.O....betcha' dollars to rands.........
that rangitO is headed to a buck or slightly excellent short IMHO....we should expect another reverse split@that.time.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:50 - ID#432130)
Speaking for myself. I refer to delflation in reference to when the "the Problem" finally comes crashing down, as it has already begun to do in other countries. I have no education in economics. But I am smart enough not to be a "sheeple" who thinks his "investment money" is "invested". Ofcourse there are no signs of deflation right now. It hasnt hit here yet. And even if Y2k is a non-event. The market is going to get crushed by the cash run-stampede that will occur months before the "non-event". Dont tell me there will be no delfation then.

You believe everything is going to go on just as it has been. The "correction" is over and now its time to "Bull" again, and everyone can go on making lots of money. I respect your belief in this matter, but dont expect me to agree with it. Not everyone here is concerned with the short term. That means squat. When I referred to "Deflation", I was referring to the long term.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:51 - ID#93127)
Re--Interest rates...this is a FAVORITE {:-))
"the liquidity trap clearly assumes that the demand to hold money is determined by the rate of interest, meaning that this demand should vary inversely with changes in the rate of interest. If this is so, what then determines the rate of interest?

Sir Dennis Robertson, a far shrewder economist than either Goodhart or Krugman, was keenly aware of this contradiction causing him to cleverly write:

"Thus the rate of interest is what it is because it is expected to become other than it is; if it is not expected to become other than it is, there is nothing left to tell us why it is what it is. The organ which secretes it has become amputated. And yet it somehow still exists a grin without a cat."

Gollum@The.Finch.Sings.Nicely yea! mine too {:- )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:52 - ID#237299)
FBI shopping for Citizen's at Sam's club:
Did anybody follow up on the claimed raid at Sam's club for hoarders? Was this a bogus report, or did it happen?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:53 - ID#350358)
Somebody is accumulating NEM. Check out the volumn on the upmoves. Any idea what's pushing things 'today'?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:53 - ID#219363)
Most definitely the farmer's goods are getting cheaper, as are fish out of the nets on the west coast. We heard last night that dealer promotions ( cash ) for new cars are out in force. Definitely deflation is happening overseas, no doubt about that one. It's a process, not a result, and it coming home now. Last year it was only Asia, but now it's our own farmers and steel workers, it's happening, it's real, and it's geeting worse. It takes time for these things to move through the system. Right now it's just hitting US exports, but what happens when those fishermen can't afford new boats, or those farmers new equipment, or auto makers lay people off because they have shrinking overseas markets, forcing down the price of labor as unemployment rises, or the price of a farmers land falls because farmers start going out of business, etc, etc, etc. It's deflation alright, coming to a town near you.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 13:55 - ID#348127)

You are right about that. Datek called me today and cancelled my Rangy trade from yesterday. Pissed me off- back to where I started from with Rangy. No wait a minute, now I am further behind because the stock is sucking hind tit today. Go Rangy- you piece of #### !!!!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:01 - ID#343171)
sent e-mail to nerds at ranyd yest.-no response

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:01 - ID#341294)
You misunderstand me. I have absolutely no faith in this market. I believe it is a "House of Cards" that will come crashing down. I am even a little more pessimistic than most in that I believe everyone will be hurt, no matter what precautions they take, no matter how much gold & silver they squirrel away. However, I have always believed that there will be some event ( & I don't know what that event will be ) to precipitate the disaster, & to expose the fraud of this market. If we could figure out what this event will be, we could most likely fare very well. However, nothing as of yet seems to have an effect on this market - not the Asian crisis, not the hedge fund mess, not anything, yet.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:03 - ID#190411)
email me now

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:05 - ID#147201)
Hey Y'all et al
I listened to Clinto and I say that if he was not extremely worried about wht is developing he would not have made that speech- BS all the way.He is almost on the verge of being scared

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:06 - ID#31868)
I have been listening to the Communist in Chief...Herr Clintler...his speech had every
social tickle in it...a man who has never had a job other than receiving a government check is telling the world how to run the domestic and international economy...the man who called Asia a "glitch."

The man who constantly refers to "doing the work of the people."

The man on whose watch the welfare state has grown and thrown the world into a deflationary spiral the likes of which have never been seen...not even by those who survived 1929 and live on today...

And the fat and happy Americans have no clue...they yap of ideals and economic theories and spend money on Halloween costumes which cost more than the majority of people on Earth see in a month or more while toiling to feed their families while retaining a sense of dignity...

When the bell doth toll the scythe will level the playing field which has been artificially rearranged...altered and is like an inflated balloon which is pretty on the outside but full of nothing but hot air and empty promises...

got fortitude?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:07 - ID#30345)
I think gwyz is saying that a good run on the banks will precipitate the disaster. You are saying prices are going up. What if both of you are right. Prices don't change much more, but no one has much money either. Oh, a detrioration of standard of living.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:07 - ID#290145)
Subject: RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION COMPANY Reply-to:> Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1998 19:57:51 +2H00

Following your enquiry about the Rangold ADR stock - herewith the announcement. If you require any additional information, please contact me on the above e-mail address or . Tel: +27 ( 11 ) 728-4701 or fax +27 ( 11 ) 728-2547/8

ADR ANNOUNCEMENT For immediate release


Johannesburg, 10 November - Randgold & Exploration Company announced today that in compliance with the Nasdaq stock market's maintenance standards of a minimum bid price of $1, it had consolidated its Nasdaq-listed American Depositary Receipts ( ADRs ) on a three-for-one basis. The value of shareholders' holdings is expected to remain unchanged except for the elimination of fractional interests. As part of the consolidation process, Randgold's Nasdaq trading symbol has changed from RANGY to RANYD.

Please be advised that effective open business November 9, 1998, Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd's ratio changed from one ( 1 ) ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share to one ( 1 ) ADR representing three 3 ) ordinary shares. The ordinary shares will remain the same. The reason for the reverse split was that the share price was too low to remain listed on NASDAQ.

The current symbol RANGY will temporarily change to RANYD for 30 days,
after which it will return to RANGY.

Holders of Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 20 8 ) are requested to exchange these for "new" Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 30 7 ) . Holders will receive one "new" ADR for every three "old" ADRs that are presented for exchange.

Please note that Randgold's 144A program ( CUSIP 753009 10 9 ) WILL NOT
be affected by this ratio change and will maintain a ratio of one ( 1 )
ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share.

Effective Date: November 9, 1998

Country of Incorporation: South Africa

Local Custodian: Credit Agricole Indosuez-South Africa,
Societe Generale South Africa Ltd., Nedcor Bank Limited, Standard
Bank of South Africa

Par Value: Rand 0.01

Ratio: 1:3

CUSIP Number: 753009307

Exchange: NASDAQ

Symbol: RANYD for 30 days

If you require any additional information please feel free to contact:

New York
Julio J. Lugo
Vice President
Tel: ( 212 ) 815-2175
Kind regards
Kathy du Plessis
du Plessis Associates

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:07 - ID#290145)
Subject: RANDGOLD & EXPLORATION COMPANY Reply-to:> Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1998 19:57:51 +2H00

Following your enquiry about the Rangold ADR stock - herewith the announcement. If you require any additional information, please contact me on the above e-mail address or . Tel: +27 ( 11 ) 728-4701 or fax +27 ( 11 ) 728-2547/8

ADR ANNOUNCEMENT For immediate release


Johannesburg, 10 November - Randgold & Exploration Company announced today that in compliance with the Nasdaq stock market's maintenance standards of a minimum bid price of $1, it had consolidated its Nasdaq-listed American Depositary Receipts ( ADRs ) on a three-for-one basis. The value of shareholders' holdings is expected to remain unchanged except for the elimination of fractional interests. As part of the consolidation process, Randgold's Nasdaq trading symbol has changed from RANGY to RANYD.

Please be advised that effective open business November 9, 1998, Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd's ratio changed from one ( 1 ) ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share to one ( 1 ) ADR representing three 3 ) ordinary shares. The ordinary shares will remain the same. The reason for the reverse split was that the share price was too low to remain listed on NASDAQ.

The current symbol RANGY will temporarily change to RANYD for 30 days,
after which it will return to RANGY.

Holders of Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 20 8 ) are requested to exchange these for "new" Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 30 7 ) . Holders will receive one "new" ADR for every three "old" ADRs that are presented for exchange.

Please note that Randgold's 144A program ( CUSIP 753009 10 9 ) WILL NOT
be affected by this ratio change and will maintain a ratio of one ( 1 )
ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share.

Effective Date: November 9, 1998

Country of Incorporation: South Africa

Local Custodian: Credit Agricole Indosuez-South Africa,
Societe Generale South Africa Ltd., Nedcor Bank Limited, Standard
Bank of South Africa

Par Value: Rand 0.01

Ratio: 1:3

CUSIP Number: 753009307

Exchange: NASDAQ

Symbol: RANYD for 30 days

If you require any additional information please feel free to contact:

New York
Julio J. Lugo
Vice President
Tel: ( 212 ) 815-2175
Kind regards
Kathy du Plessis
du Plessis Associates

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:08 - ID#339274)
FWIW stops should be raised.XAU 79.5,NEM 22 1/2

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:09 - ID#219363)
If we're seeking an event that will push the markets down, we'll likely get it soon enough. Who did we have on television today, hmm, Rubin, the President of the United States giving a little sermon, pretty important folks left and right. Why ? I mean, why today ? Why now ? We're all being prep'ed for something. I've heard the President speak on the economy more times in the past two months than I've heard him talk about Iraq and all that fiddy'ditty. They want calm, why ? Because they're afraid that they won't get it. If this thing were over, then nobody would care about it anymore. They would be talking about our continued growth instead of addressing our problems.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:10 - ID#341294)
You're right about farm products. I have a small farm. A guy farms it for me on shares, and the soybeans we planted are about a buck a bushel cheaper than what we sold them for last year. However, everything I have read says it is because we are too efficient at farming, not because of deflation. As a matter of fact, the past two years we have planted some proprietary seed of some large seed producer, and have had record crops. We even had to sign an agrreement that we would not sell these beans as seed.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:13 - ID#288466)

From the weird trading pattern today - it appears to me that the thin market is being used to exploit the uncertainty of the reverse split.....

I agree with Studio.R - the price could conceivably go down to the previous RANGY price range/0.7 or about $1 - $1.10 ( based on the 7 for 10 split information ) before the market makers 'discover' that the split is actually 1 for 3 and then it moves back up to its 'proper' pricing above $2.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:14 - ID#270253)
Randgold closed in South Africa at 410 rand yesterday. I can get today's quote in a couple of hours. Based on the 1-3 split and current exchange rates, the Nasdaq RANYD is worth $2.19 right now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:16 - ID#432130)
Sorry, I did misunderstand you. "Words" sre something I need to reread sometimes before I make a posting. Your reply is basically what I believe to be the correct perception of the situation. I still disagree about the deflation issue though.

Again, my apologies for the misunderstanding.

: )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:16 - ID#341294)
I'll buy that.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:16 - ID#212197)
Michel Camdessus in "The IMF and Its Critics" (p. A21 Washington Post of today)
"Now we have another great task before us in improving the architecture of the global financial system....
The IMF itself has come a long way in increasing its own transparency, and we are committed to going further. Pressing ahead with strengthening government systems for supervising and regulating financial systems is another priority."

Does this last sentence sound very "liberal" to you?
My take is this: as long as the governments "supervise and regulate" along the lines of the interests of the international banking oligarchy, it's o.k. if they don't act so liberal. It will be also o.k. if they act dictatorial along these lines.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:17 - ID#266105)

Goldteck ( Randgold Resources on London Stocks Exchange ) ID#431200:
How can I get the price of Randgold Resources on London Stocks Exchange? Thanks.


I use this; registration required--

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:17 - ID#343171)
I just got the same e-mail from ranyd; dig this:
The value of shareholders' holdings is expected to remain
unchanged except for the elimination of fractional interests.

err yeah but we gotta go up over 30% from here just to be even
with Fridays close, bush league tin horns cost me $5700,
now how many 12paks of hamms is that?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:18 - ID#339274)
scalping NEM
FWIW 23 3/4 to 23 7/8 will give resistance.Sell order could be placed there.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:19 - ID#269409)
@ Frail... Inflation/ Gold has been a very poor hedge
I'm with you Frail. In our area, we saw this past summer, one of the largest percentage increases in Real Estate prices since the California recessionary decline of 1990. Median home price went from mid 200's to $340,000 in a period of months!

Car prices? When was the last time you saw them dropping? Has the Asian crises and weakened Yen brought us much lower prices on Honda's, Lexus, and Toyota's/ Ha!

Like you, I see my food, and utility bill steadily climbing month after month, for years now......not falling.

How about the prices of auto and homeowners insurance? Or virtually ANY service sector charge? Auto repairs? babysitters? Carpenters or plumbers?

Overnight accomodations at hotels?

Or taxes. BIG increases every year due to higher and higher income threshold for SSI / Medicare. ( Yes I just said a few posts back that I support these programs in some form......and no I don't support the exorbitant bloated entitlement pork barrels they have become... )

Sure a lot of commodity's and the index are in the dumpster, but we sure don't see that at the retail level. ( With minor exceptions like computer equipment )

Overall the trend in the U.S. has been, and will continue to be levels far exceeding the "reported" level due to flaws in the formula for same.

If one wants to consider the true inflation rate.... and how poorly Gold has acted as a hedge....just go back 18 years when Gold was $750 / Oz. Look at home prices, gasoline, electric rates, insurance rates, food, large manufactured items like Auto's.....

When we do a reasonable price analysis of the major items most folks purchase, we'll find Gold has dropped to 10% or less in purchasing power today...from where it was then.

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:21 - ID#242214)
One of the causes of deflation IS efficiency. The ability to overproduce
goods and services, thus driving the price down below the cost of
production. The introduction of mechanical threshing machines
increased the production of wheat tenfold during the 1870s. Or
perhaps it was the 1890s.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:22 - ID#343171)
Speed re: your e-mail from nerds at ranyd:
did your message also contain several e-mail addresses
for other recipients? Mine did and indicates an enormous
breach of privacy/protocal/professionalism.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:24 - ID#254321)
Cheap imported goods
Frail: You are right that we have had inflation for decades. Most of the time our fiat currency gurus have been able to shield us from deflation, so that whenever it rears its ugly head, they expand the money supply. The end result has been the steady incessant inflation pattern we all know.

The problem is -- every 50-60 years or so the pattern is different. The old 'inflate the dollar' scheme does not work as well any more - such as now. Accumulated debt complicates things immensely.

Two weeks ago I went to the food store, and found that I could buy an imported VCR, or color television for $39! And the product appeared to be of reasonable quality. You undoubedly know about the computer/computer memory price crash, and how competitive jobs have become in certain sectors. Why hire an American programmer when you can pay an Indian or Polish one for a fraction of the cost?

So -- many sectors of our economy have been forced to cut costs because they can't raise prices -- mainly due to foreign competition.

And now the deflationary forces are accumulating in the US. We have survived the computer price crash, but a collapse in the auto industry may not be so forgiving. It is beginning. Just wait till the current 40% reduction in new auto sales in South America gets translated into American dollar losses!

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:26 - ID#242214)
Old-Time Deflation - :)
Instant Access to Information - : )

Despite the great gains in industry, agriculture remained the nation's basic occupation. The
revolution in agriculture -- paralleling that in manufacturing after the Civil War -- involved a
shift from hand labor to machine farming, and from subsistence to commercial agriculture.
Between 1860 and 1910, the number of farms in the United States tripled, increasing from
2 million to 6 million, while the area farmed more than doubled from 160 million to 352
million hectares.

Between 1860 and 1890, the production of such basic commodities as wheat, corn and
cotton outstripped all previous figures in the United States. In the same period, the nation's
population more than doubled, with largest growth in the cities. But the American farmer
grew enough grain and cotton, raised enough beef and pork, and clipped enough wool not
only to supply American workers and their families but also to create ever-increasing

Several factors accounted for this extraordinary achievement. One was the expansion into
the West. Another was the application of machinery to farming. The farmer of 1800, using
a hand sickle, could hope to cut 20 percent of a hectare of wheat a day. With the cradle,
30 years later, he might cut 80 percent of a hectare daily. In 1840 Cyrus McCormick
performed a miracle by cutting from two to two-and-a-half hectares a day with the reaper,
the curious machine he had been developing for nearly 10 years. Foreseeing the demand,
he headed west to the young prairie town of Chicago, where he set up a factory -- and by
1860 sold a quarter of a million reapers.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:26 - ID#31868)
gwyz, Frail, Namaste'...dig it...gulps and puffs all is my contention that
although the two of you have the educational and business backgroundsthat your conversation is this sense only...please bear with me as I explain...

I am resolute in my belief that the numbers upon which your conversation is based are completely false...they are fabrications filled with falsehoods on a platter of lies...

The very real facts of these matters are a bankrupt economic system whose foundation is based on the fractional reserve fiat system of the welfare state and the purveyors of same...the world is thirsty for money that is an instrument which the international system of payments can rely onyet the glass offered by the purveyors of fiat is filled with sand

This foundation is based upon a system which falsely believes that money can be created out of thin air...and people laughed at those who would make lead intos charlatans have people the world over believing they can make money out of thin air...

You can not make sense out of numbers that are false, as any equation you develop must collapse under the weight of itself and be incorrect because the point from which you started was a lie

I do not seek to offend either of youI just do not think the conversation can aggressively be pursued until the input on the front end of the equation can be found to be valid

Gulps and puffs to yanext round of beers is on me

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:27 - ID#24135)
What a speech ..
Bugal ..
Maybe you despise WJC .. but you
got the same speech writer.

Being compassionate is FINE bugal
FINE. Getting the Government to be
compassionate FOR YOU is Bullsh!t ..
.. Go away .. Im dozing in my arm..
chair dreaming of past glories ..
quarterbacking the Giants .. the
Raiders .. thanks for the tip..
.. more fun than getting involved
in this kind of dopey argument..

Aragorn III
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:27 - ID#212323)
T#1... got fortitude...heh, heh...The very bones of the earth is what I've got.
To the poster known as Frail...don't let price changes confuse you on the issue of inflation vs. deflation which are money supply terms. Prices changes at BEST are lagging indicators, and the correlation is not always what one would expect. During a defaltion of the money supply, a producer of limited means may find himself in a predicament to raise some of his prices in an attempt to bring in enough of those precious and scarce dollars to service his debt obligations. Paying off debt ( repaying loans ) is a deflationary event...etc,...etc...etc...etc...etc...etc...etc...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:27 - ID#290145)
I just bought enough RANYD shares to even up that irritating odd lot. The price is spiking up as we speak. I believe the realization will quickly solidify that nothing substantive has changed, and then the Kebbles dog and pony show will attract enough interest to propel the shares upward. Think about why you bought the stock in the first place. If it was a good buy then, what has changed? I'll betcha a beer that by April we're glad we put up with the million fleas on this dog.

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:29 - ID#242214)
Oh, well, heck, we'll try again
Despite the great gains in industry, agriculture remained the nation's basic occupation. The
revolution in agriculture -- paralleling that in manufacturing after the Civil War -- involved a
shift from hand labor to machine farming, and from subsistence to commercial agriculture.
Between 1860 and 1910, the number of farms in the United States tripled, increasing from
2 million to 6 million, while the area farmed more than doubled from 160 million to 352
million hectares.

Between 1860 and 1890, the production of such basic commodities as wheat, corn and
cotton outstripped all previous figures in the United States. In the same period, the nation's
population more than doubled, with largest growth in the cities. But the American farmer
grew enough grain and cotton, raised enough beef and pork, and clipped enough wool not
only to supply American workers and their families but also to create ever-increasing

Several factors accounted for this extraordinary achievement. One was the expansion into
the West. Another was the application of machinery to farming. The farmer of 1800, using
a hand sickle, could hope to cut 20 percent of a hectare of wheat a day. With the cradle,
30 years later, he might cut 80 percent of a hectare daily. In 1840 Cyrus McCormick
performed a miracle by cutting from two to two-and-a-half hectares a day with the reaper,
the curious machine he had been developing for nearly 10 years. Foreseeing the demand,
he headed west to the young prairie town of Chicago, where he set up a factory -- and by
1860 sold a quarter of a million reapers.

From - ""

Aragorn III
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:30 - ID#212323)
I can see that within the past minute Tolerant1 has already put that one to rest!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:30 - ID#119358)
@CoOlJing.........premium beers to YA!!!!
yup. we must now say "so long, ol' pal" to dem' Hamms and move right into dem' Colt 45's!!! ohmy. ( gulp ) ( belch )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:31 - ID#341294)
Those are my sentiments exactly. Everyone wants to make a months wages on every repair job. I'm going to pick up my wife's car tonight from the repair shop. The bill is $1256.00. I bought this car new in 1992 ( it's a 1991 ) & it has 73K miles & is extremely well-maintianed. I know others are going to say, well, "you have the money to pay for it," and I do. I guess there is some consolation in that.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:31 - ID#290145)
They could have used "Blind Carbon Copy" to good effect eh? I'll bet that was one harried secretary trying to answer all of the irrate communications today. I'm happy just to have answers. Incidentally, as a network administrator, I can say that there is no such thing as private email.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:33 - ID#432130)
Its not about the pathetic performance of gold as a hedge. Its about what is going on right now in WORLD finance. Its payment time for greed, corruption, and manipulation. Im am not talking about some ridiculuos conspiracy theory. I am talking about what is happening out there. I am talking about all the things that were finally coming to light in the press, but now the focus has changed. We read about what's going on inside our still growing economy now. The world situation has not yet changed, and it certainly has not become old news, but we have stopped hearing about it.

Anyway, I am talking about things that ARE happening, and have an obvious conclusion. Deflation is among those things involved in that conclusion.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:34 - ID#35571)
If anyone is interested in NEM today
Date: Tue Nov 10 1998 13:08
Gollum ( Yanacocha )

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:35 - ID#24135)
I wonder ..
where the story came from about
conversion of rangold to shares of
rangold resources came from .. thats
interesting .. imho the reverse split
is meaningless ..
.. but conversion to RRS would
do one of two things ..
1. eliminate the discount to
nav of the rangy price .. or
2. demolish the price of RRS.

in 1 .. rangy goes up
in 2 .. rangy goes nowhere and
rrs goes down .

could there be something to the
story .. who posted that one ??

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:36 - ID#242214)
Deflation and Conspiracies

Ahh, we're still safe. I know in my heart that if I can just see
ONE comment about "ridiculous conspiracy theories" that television
brainwashing is still in force, and no mass panic will take place
any time soon. : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:39 - ID#119358)
@straight from Goldman, Sachs & Buschleague.....
Seven shares of Ranyd and $2.50 will now get you a sixer of Hamms. ( plus sales tax )

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:40 - ID#270253)
John Disney
I posted it based upon a conversation yesterday with the sponsor of the ADR, The Bank of New York using the phone number from the annual report. I made notes based upon the information a man named "Vincent" gave to me. My phone call was to determine the split ratio, but he responded with the 7 shares plus $2.50 equals 10 Randgold Resources. If it was a slip, it was a strange one.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:40 - ID#343171)
Speed your right and no bets, I realize that rangy will be
OK, its just the climb up the sand dune effect that bugs me,
one step forward with this stock , two steps back. Good time
to buy in here.
Studio.R, my premuim beer consumption follows my investments
very closely, I was living high off the hog when I had Bre-X
and Arequipa at the same time, sold at the tops luckily, but
these days its homebrew, Oly and BudLite. sometimes h20 to
keep the liver from whining.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:40 - ID#318183)
Professionalism?? This reverse split nonsense is a slap in all of the rangy/ranyd shareholders - at the least it is a breach of fiduciary responsibility - this keeble guy must have some huge cohonees!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:41 - ID#341294)
@all posters
You all make good points. I confess - I can't figure it out. I give up, but I will continue to eavesdrop on your conversations. I truly have learned a lot from you all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:44 - ID#20767)
re: RANGY/RANYD ........

The market-makers/specialists are raping this one today - buying and holding on the cheap and selling dear. Is this creature Kebble due in the Washington area soon?

Bob in DC

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:45 - ID#432130)
Goodbye everyone, gotta go now...
...Remember, everyone's opinion is valid to many here at Kitco. As much as many others may disagree with those same opinions. Lets all be cool about it.

Just a thought for the day : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:45 - ID#31868)
Who Cares, Namaste' gulp and a puff to are part of the conspiracy...yup...
got a Federal Reserve Note in your will purchase goods and services but it is an empty promise to pay...what a concept...oh can use the Federal Reserve Note...but it ain't YOUR money...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:45 - ID#343171)
I am starting to believe that keeble is that little
cartoon elf that sells cookies on the tube for Keebler,
I must be wrong though 'cause the elf knows how to communicate.

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:48 - ID#24135)
mystery buyer ???
to all ..
gold is making a cute move in currencies on the
charts .. very sneaky .. very sneaky ..
.. looks a lot better than platinum .. but someone
keeps supporting that platinum market .. a big
buyer .. somewhere .. buying hand over fist ...
who could it be ??

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:49 - ID#242214)
Computer-Generated Deflation
It isn't hard to figure out. Just keep up with changes in the
computer industry. Example - voice recognition. It's all over the
place now. It's on the verge of actually working well.

What I do is, I get an example like that, and then I spend the next
week or month seeing how many jobs can be eliminated. For instance -

Girl at movie ticket window - Let's see. I need something that can
understand a few words, like "One Ticket", or "Two tickets",
"Vampires", or "Something about Mary". I need something that can
charge my credit card and issue receipts. Bingo - computer gets
this job in about two more years. : )

Teachers - heck, the PERFECT job for computers that can talking and
understand words. : )

Politicians - we'll need several processors running at once to deal
with the problems of cognitive dissonance, but it *can* be done.
And for less money. : )

Ultimately, we will *have* to see a 32-hour workweek. I'm telling
you, guys. 32 hours is coming.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:51 - ID#365216)
Beware of companies and individuals who say. . .
they are 2YK Compliant.

Got God, gold, guns, grub, generators, and goodies?

If the minimum weren't good enough, it wouldn't be the minimum.

That is all.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:53 - ID#318183)
what is the meaning of being a shareholder??
a reverse split without a shareholder vote or notification? the adr sponsor giving out false and misleading information - quote services with wrong quotes - wrong reverse split figures - brokers undoing trades based on false information - dreyfus has the split in my account at 7/10 - who knew about the truth of this matter and how much did they benefit - this reminds me of the crap that happened when DROOY gave out the last options and the receiving adr shareholders were scalped for 1/2 of the money - yes 1/2

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:53 - ID#242214)

About comments about "ridiculous conspiracy theories" when my television has been filled with proof of government conspiracies
for the past five years?

Negative savings rate in U.S. and negative interest rates in Japan,
and unending comments about "booming economies" from our political

Thank you, I'll pass on being "cool".

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:55 - ID#350179)
Cyclist's XAU
79.5 stop blown.

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:56 - ID#24135)
rangy ..
for Mike ..
I remember now .. thanks .. wonder
if there is something to it .. I
think THAT might be good for rangy ..

for lakefoil ..
why are you so excited about this
.. nothing changed HERE with the
stock .. it seems the change was
was just to make the ADR comply
with US restrictions .. it should
not affect Kebble one way or the
other .. nor can I understand how
anyone lost ON THE SPLIT ..

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:57 - ID#318183)
reverse split
I do a lot of mathematical modeling of systems and have applied my work to stocks ( lots of data and it has financial worth ) and the one thing I have concluded is that a stock is DEAD after a reverse split - I have many many examples - if anyone is interested in this I could post many many examples - the SEC should look at everyone who sold before this mess and I'll bet they were people in the know

(Tue Nov 10 1998 14:59 - ID#318183)
lost on the split??? WHAT??
Do you have a calculator???

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:00 - ID#194311)
Interest rate, inflation, deflation: it's all mumbo-jumbo.
Tolerant1 has it squarely by the goolies, you cannot argue the case either way because the starting point is a fallacy rendering all further arguments moot.

Deflation is when you're money becomes worth more, isn't this a good thing? Inflation is when the money in your hand becomes worthless, this is a bad thing, right? Or am I really that stupid.

Who Cares? makes very good points, deflation can be caused even in a hard currency such as gold because the technology/method of manufacture has been improved making a gain in efficiency. Now it is cheaper to produce and buy a bushel of grains, a sack of spuds or a pocket calculator. These gains should be shared by all holders of the money as things become cheaper, this we are told by screwy economists is a bad thing. No we shouldn't be allowed to share the rewards of cheaper goods but should have the money supply expanded by the ruling class into the pockets of their cronies.

A hard gold currency is a natural way of fairly distributing the collective wealth and gains made by the society. A fiat currency allows these gains to be concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. True socialism requires a hard currency.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:06 - ID#335379)
Hello LGB, Balance, Balance, Agree with what was said about your comments, would add that the truly
distainful "new deal" we are seeing is that the american tax payer is getting poorer and poorer at the cost of the governments inefficiency at redistributing wealth and the fact that because of fiat, is the number one cause of loss of spending power.
If all the monies collected by fed for handouts was simply given to the poor, even the liars, each family of four could recieve well over $35K/yr. That could get even a big spender like myself back on track in less than six months!

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:08 - ID#24135)
Calm yourself down ..
Lakefoil ..
.. the price basis of rangy stock has not
changed at ALL .. there has been no
split in RSA .. all this action was
on the ADR issued by whatever US Banks
control the ADR ..
.. all that notwithstanding ... I
will repost what I posted on the subject
of Rangy ADR maybe 2 months ago ..

... read it and tell me why you
chose to ignore what I said ..

" For Rangy sportsfans ..
I will repeat this for all Rangy sportsfans .. IF
Rangy should break up its assets to shareholders I
would be very carefull .. IF you can .. I would
purchase the Rangold shares locally in Joberg
( ML has and office there .. it should be easy ) ..
rather than the ADRs ... Ignore my words at YOUR
PERIL .. If things go bad .. Im keeping this posting
so I can say I did my best.
In the event of a break up .. I believe that assets
issuing the ADRs.
NOW I dont think RRS which is HALF Rangolds assets
is listed .. Im sure that ALL the rest except for
DD Randfonts and the other STOCKS are UNLISTED..
Im not making this up ... IVE DONE THIS sort of
thing myself.
The assets would be disposed of like this .. my broker
would call and say .. was just advised that Citibank
is auctioning 11.25 million shares of randgold resources
dau after tomaorrow .. do you want to make an offer??
Since we'd be talking 25 million smackers .. Id say
lemme sleep on it ..
However mercury asset management owns 25 % of rangold
( source Mining Journal ) and would have been in
close contact with the bank and be fully prepared ..
same goes for the kebbles .. So these assets would
obtain at best 60 cents on the dollar at that type of
auction ( there might even be a little collusion ..
perish the thought ) .
SO .. In the event of a carve up .. either buy the
local shares or bail out at the first sign of such a
move .. Remember .. I told you .. I keep a copy."

Aragorn III
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:09 - ID#212323)
tolerant1---" can use the Federal Reserve Note...but it ain't YOUR money..."
THAT, my friend, is SO true, and anyone who does not yet understand this is missing something vital to their economic well-being, and must think long and hard on the point until it is well understood.

Anyone in a position to name their price would benefit greatly by choosing different terms for settlement. "Legal tender" doesn't mean you have to ASK for it, it's just that if you use it to denoninate your terms you are stuck with it when offered as payment. If you do a "job" that has a fair market value of $300, ask for either one ounce of gold or $1,000 Federal Reserve Notes. You'll get the gold with either outcome.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:13 - ID#318183)
I'm down 25% since friday in randy - isn't anyone else??lol
the 16% drop in rng in SA a week ago was the people in the know shoveling out.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:14 - ID#176200)
Internet Stocks vs Gold Stocks and Gold WOOOOOOOW!
Have you guys seen the Epic runup in internet stocks the past few days?
It is a complete and total mania! ( just like 29 ) Stocks moving up as
much as $40 a day on companies that do not have a pot to piss in.

Would it be safe to say that when the mining industry and gold have
thier day, we would see the same "irrational exuberence"? or should I say "rational exuberence"? Gold the metal has a p/e ratio of 1. Most internet stocks are in the hundreds. I smell War.

Better odds than Vegas!

God made gold, man made paper. Who do you trust?

Gotta get some earplugs on the way home from work.

Regards to all, O.L.

Not speaking for my employer.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:14 - ID#269409)
Economy not dead yet.....
Tuesday November 10, 2:51 pm Eastern Time

Redbook U.S. retail index rose 0.5 pct Nov vs Oct

NEW YORK, Nov 10 ( Reuters ) - U.S. seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.5 percent in the
first week of November versus October, according to the Lynch, Jones & Ryan Inc Redbook
Retail Average.

In the week ended November 7, retail sales rose 7.6 percent compared to the same week one
year ago and also rose 7.6 percent compared to November 1997.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:15 - ID#229207)
Who Cares?
I'm in the speech recognition biz at the moment and can tell you that what's needed for some of the applications you are talking about is here -- speaker-independent, small vocabulary systems for low-quality sound input devices ( e.g., a telephones ) . Try the demo on, for example.

Over the next few years you'll just about never talk to a human when you call to get a stock quote, your account balance, get flight information, order tickets or a burger.

Next come AI-based dialogue systems that you can just talk to the way you normally talk, with huge vocabularies and adaptable language models ( contexts and grammars ) , systems that are now speaker-dependent ( you have to train them ) and require a close-speak microphone and require you to dictate, which is a different way of speaking that just talking. When you dictate, you have to think through what you're going to say before you say it. The newer systems will figure out what you're trying to say ( will understand meaning in addition to grammar ) and will replace people doing more sophisticated tasks.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:16 - ID#190411)
Based on close in SA of .37 Rand. it is worth 1.98
Hey Studio, remember that horrible TV show, "1.98 Beauty Pageant"?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:23 - ID#269409)
@ Nicodemus
We agree on much. The Big Brother, rumnaway leftist, socialist, tyrannical, legislation happy, Politically correct, crowd makes me ill.

On the other hand, John Disney would have us believe....that one can't go into the market and select a few nice oranges without taking all the rotten ones underneath as well.

Government is a necessary evil, that can do some things better than we do as individuals. Contrary to Disney's assertions, not EVERYTHING government does on our behalf, ( and at our request, being we elect them ) is an intrusive, moralizing, burden.

I'd like to see far less welfare ( Republicans made excellent gains with welfare reform the past four years but are too stupid to make this a positive campaign issue ) .

I'd like to see less moralizing, agendizing, PC izing, tax and spendizing, intrusive, pinheaded beurocratic morons lording it over us.

But it isn't an "All or nothing" proposition. Most things aren't that simple.

We'll let the simple minded stick with the black and white Anarchy vs. Ultra left Socialist Tyranny choices. The rest of us will find a middle ground, and appreciate the good stuff whilst trying to change the bad.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW watch support 77.8

Aragorn III
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:25 - ID#212323)
True story...this past week I have personally propped up the gold market at $292.50
I can't show you the yellow side of the deal but I can show you this:
( of course, in the archives this link will look ridiculous, as it is updated in real-time! )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:26 - ID#318183)
rng and dur should merge
something is wrong - kibble is in control of both DUR and RNG and he says that RNG and DUR can't merge because of the different 'cultures' at the companies??? and he is here doing a dog and pony show? is anyone else upset here?

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:32 - ID#242214)
Voice Recognition

EJ - I worked with voice recognition systems briefly about, gad,
I guess it is about 2- 2.5 years ago. I'm shocked at how much they've
progressed. Our system had problems with background noises, changes
in weather ( i.e. changes in vocal cords ) , specialized vocabularies, etc.

I saw a demo of Dragon Systems a few months ago. I was just shocked.

Lots more jobs will be going away.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:35 - ID#31868)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' gulp and a puff...c'mon now...
the seismograph does not lie...heavy and I MEAN heavy activity in your part of the world...dropped that bag with all that Platinum in it eh...and you think we are fooled by these announcements of a couple of thousand ounces of gold here and there...

ARAGORNIII...proper-upper of declining physical metal markets...uh huh...

Got a backhoe?

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:35 - ID#24135)
pull yourself together ..
Lakefoil .. you said ..

"the 16% drop in rng in SA a week ago was the
people in the know shoveling out."

.. last week .. 53,000 shares traded.
.. not many people in the know .. thats
less than 45000 $ US .. who are you
kidding ??

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:39 - ID#31868)
Some heavy action in

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:42 - ID#258273)
LGB - deflation
I think that the current reflation efforts may indeed perpeturate inflationary numbers for some time. Basically, the world needs to liquidate a lot of bad debt. There are two bad choices: either let the debtors default or consolidate the debt into government debt and hyper-inflate. Historically, the former policy choice leads to deflationary depression, the later leads to a command economy ( read Facism ) . Our federal government has chosen the later. I fear the later more than the former.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:43 - ID#411198)
Talk about a reamer
My broker shows me long 10,000 RANGY
Short 7000 RANYD.... hung up.
He still shows a 7 for 10 with no information to the contrary

John Disney
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:43 - ID#24135)
Hark .. a brass instrument ..
.. a bugal .. no much too pompous and windy..
sounded more like a rusty Tuba ..

and it said ..

"On the other hand, John Disney would have us
believe....that one can't go into the market and
select a few nice oranges without taking all the
rotten ones underneath as well. "

Dont flatter yourself .. I wouldnt have YOU
believe anything .. and help yourself to the
rotten oranges ..

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:45 - ID#335379)
Hello LGB,, Fair enough
Go gold,
well OK if not gold go my other investments
Non sox of course...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:45 - ID#197328)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:46 - ID#335379)
That's stox not sox, of course

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:46 - ID#269409)
@ Disney
Gettin testy are ya? There's a cure for that. Gotta hand it to you though, at least you're not a hypocrite, when it comes to "love it or leave it" you left it. ( Thankfully.... )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:48 - ID#318183)
you are correct sir! (in my best ed mcmahon voice)!!
hmm - sorry - my greed thinking I was up yesterday $9000 ( on false information ) got to me ( and now I have to tell my gf I LIED about being able to buy her a new pair of shoes!! lol - your post on "auctioning of assets if distributed in the US" is upsetting but quite probably true ) The positives now : the volume was sure low in SA and rng busted through the bottom bollinger band and down 7.5% last night - I just hate myself for not thinking through this ADR thing!! I guessed the rand would crash and profits based on US$/GOLD would go up in SA - but it never was realized in the stock price!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:48 - ID#31868)
Every American should read this...yup...uh huh...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:52 - ID#350179)
My stop blown in last 10 minutes
Out for now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:52 - ID#18355)
re: von finck and post 13:06 today
can someone explain the poison pill scenario in regards to being allowed to purchase more than 15% of hm's shares. thanks

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:52 - ID#197328)
All: On layover here in Atlanta in the middle of several days away from home and lurking/posting from a Kinco Copier center rental computer.

Was flying last night between Atlanta-NY-Boston and Washington and saw the most/biggest/brightest meteors I've seen in a long time.

Just a prelude of next week's Leonid action?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:56 - ID#31868)
and its 1,2,3, what are we votin for...don't me I don't give a damn...elections are
rigged across the land...and its 1,2,3, what are we votin for............

Gold Dancer
(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:57 - ID#377196)
WOW! What confusion!
I guess there is confusion about RANYD. MY broker still says that
Dow Jones has not corrected their story. It is still 7 for 10. He said
that is how the stock traded. So I am wondering what is going on?

Right now DROOY and RANYD are trading at a 3 for 2 exchange. I wonder
if all this is to create confusion before they can announce a merger?

I really don't know what is happening. This is a bad situation and
does not speak well for Kebbble. He is into confusion not clairification.

If it really is a 1 for 3 then we are all down 20% instead of up
60%. That is almost too much to deal with!!

My broker is trying to find out more.

Let us hope for the best!

Thanks, GD

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:57 - ID#269409)
@ Jt8D...Meteors
Interesting...was driving out in the CA Sacto valley last week and saw the same, a spectacular, multi colored fireball type meteor that broke into fragments at the end of it's run.....

According to Art Bell ( who is back on the air that phony swine! ) ... these events are becoming much more common in the past few weeks. Hmmmmmm

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:58 - ID#31868)
aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! are those links...grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 15:58 - ID#339274)
FWIW Back in NEM 22 1/16,stop 21 7/8

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:04 - ID#266105)
lgb/the color of money, virtually

..but now he's BACK....

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:07 - ID#229207)
Looks like that Brzil/IMF deal isn't going quite as smoothly was hoped
Brazil shrs end off, profit-takers end 6-day rally

``Everybody is just waiting for the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) deal to come out, but it now seems it will not be ready until Thursday. That made profit-taking inevitable today,'' said one trader at local Corretora Doria & Atherino.

Friday the press was saying that the IMF/Brazil deal might be done as early as Monday. Now they're saying Thursday. What's the problem? Having trouble getting that IMP bailout noose around the Brazilian negotiators' necks?

Tick, tock, tick, tock...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:11 - ID#318183)
why hype rangy US ADR's?
Why should kibble hype the rangy US ADR's if as disney says, the assets distributed to US ADR holders will be actioned away at 1/2 price like the Durban Deep option money was??

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:11 - ID#318183)
why hype rangy US ADR's?
Why should kibble hype the rangy US ADR's if as disney says, the assets distributed to US ADR holders will be actioned away at 1/2 price like the Durban Deep option money was??

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:15 - ID#197328)
Hey, Lurkey, thanks for the reply. Signing off for now.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:18 - ID#290145)
RANYD footnotes
Fidelity called me back and verified for the nth time that the split was 1 for 3. They also said that the 7 for 10 split was proposed but rejected. No knowledge of who rejected it. It sounds like some brokerages aren't worth much. end of ramble

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:19 - ID#252150)
How can you tell when Clintler is lying? When his lips move.
Never truer than today. The leader of the worlds biggest debtor Nation ( by many multiples ) was lecturing & even admonishing the rest of the world on how to run their economies. Even Orwell could'nt have imagined the doublespeak that he's the master of.

GCZ8 bounced off 295 today, I wonder if that will become resistance & 285 support.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:21 - ID#229207)
LGB - Do you think we're in a bear market for stocks?
Pulled this off of Prudent Bear:

This letter was written by a well respected UK stockbroker ( wishes to remain anonymous ) and was posted on an Australian web site by one of his aussie counterparts.

It is time to resume my correspondence course on stock markets. In this letter I will concentrate on a couple of old ( but valid ) stock market sayings, explain how they originated and how they apply to present conditions on Wall Street. I will also examine whether the bear market prognosis that I propounded in my first two letters remains valid. The two sayings are: 1. THE FIRST LOSS IS THE BEST LOSS. 2. NEVER THROW GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD. The two sayings are inter-related, the second really being an extension of the first. They sound like simple truisms, but are very difficult to follow in practise. I find that an example is the best way to explain a proposition, so here goes. Assume an investor has purchased a holding of 1,000 shares in a company at $70 each and after a few months the shares have climbed to $90 each. The investor feels pretty good about the situation but doesn't sell because he anticipates that the price will go above $110. Unfortunately the stock market turns down in a bear market and his shares drop to $60 each. At this point he is showing a loss of $10 per share and his total loss is $10,000. After 16 years of bull market the investor "knows" that people who "buy the dips" are rewarded because the market "always goes to a new high". He also thinks something along these lines: "If I thought that the shares were a good buy at $70, they must be an even better buy at $60 - and a lot of other people thought that they were good value at $90". Despite it stretching his finances to the limit, our investor wades in and doubles his holding, buying another 1,000 shares at $60 each. He figures that he will sell half his enlarged position when the shares get back to somewhere close to $90, their previous peak. The shares rise to $75 and he berates himself for not buying an even bigger position at the $60 "bargain" price. Then the shares start to decline again. When they reach $60 he feels tempted to buy some more. What an opportunity! He didn't expect to see the $60 "bargain" level again and here it is staring him in the face. The problem is that he is fully invested and has no spare funds to take advantage of the $60 bargain. He discusses it with a friend who suggests that he borrow against his existing holding. He visits his friendly banker and enquires about borrowing against his existing 2,000 shares and is pleasantly surprised to find that the banker will lend him 50% of the value of his shares. That's enough to buy another 1,000 shares at the $60 bargain basement level. He doesn't hesitate and is soon the owner of 3,000 shares at an average price of $63.33. The shares rise to $75 again and our investor is patting himself on the back for his financial perspicacity. He doesn't sell any shares at $75 but plans to sell 1,000 shares at $85 to pay off his bank loan. He still anticipates that the shares will go to $110, a view confirmed by his stockbroker's opinion. To sell a few at $85 seems like a fairly conservative plan to him. Unfortunately the market trend has changed. It is now a bear market and our investor's shares drop with the market, having failed to reach $85. He still holds his entire 3,000 shares and has a loan of $60,000 to the bank. On this decline the pace of the drop accelerates and his shares slice through the $60 level like a hot knife through butter. Within a couple of days the price is $50 and he is staring down the barrel at a loss of $13.33 per share on 3,000 shares, a cool, underwear soiling, $40,000 - and, in addition, he still owes the bank $60,000. Our investor has a sleepless night as he ponders whether to sell some shares or hold on. He consults a trusted friend who reminds him that the market "always recovers" and that if you sell you "crystallise the loss", it is your loss forever. He decides to hang on for a recovery in the share price but vows to himself that he will sell at least 1,000 shares at $60 so that he can pay off the loan to the bank. The share price does recover but peaks at $58. There were so many people who bought at $60 who were thankful to get most of their money back by selling at $58 or less that the price never got back to $60 and our investor didn't sell anything. Share prices can drop with shuddering speed in bear markets and from $58 our investor's shares plunge to $40. At this point his loss is $23.33 per share on 3,000 shares, or $70,000 all up! He receives a call from his bank manager who is very apologetic but explains that the shares are no longer worth sufficient to meet the bank's security requirements. Our investor must either provide some cash to reduce the loan or the bank will be forced to sell some of the shares. Reluctantly he instructs the bank to sell 1,500 shares at $40 and use the proceeds to extinguish the $60,000 loan. He decides to hold the remaining 1,500 shares to await the "recovery". Unfortunately the shares continue to spiral downwards. When they reach $30 our investor is hit by another disaster - he loses his job. He is forced to sell 500 shares to provide for living expenses while looking for a new job. He continues to hold his now remaining 1,000 shares. There must surely be some recovery soon. Dammit, the shares have dropped from $90 to $30. They must rally soon. Finally, at $20 per share, he capitulates and sells his final 1,000 shares to avoid losing everything. Inevitably that attitude signals the end of the bear market. Out of his original investment of $130,000, our investor has recouped a mere $35,000, incurring a total loss of $95,000. I think that our investor would have gladly accepted the $10,000 first loss if he had known the ultimate outcome of his investment activities, verifying the "first loss is the best loss" principle. He compounded his problems by "throwing good money after bad." A far-fetched, unlikely, story? On the contrary. Anyone who has lived through a fully fledged bear market will confirm that such stories are commonplace at such times. It can be a disaster for anyone who has retired or is close to retirement because they do not have time to recover their financial positions. Young professionals in their twenties or early thirties and earning good salaries have time on their side. They have many years in which to recoup their losses. Their losses will generally also be on a much smaller capital base as they will not have had sufficient time to accumulate large capital sums. This is why I have also sent these letters to many of my friends, many of whom are nearing retirement or have already retired. They cannot afford to make a costly error with their retirement funds at this stage of their lives. Caution and conservatism must be their watchwords in these uncertain times. APPLYING THESE PRINCIPLES TO THE STOCK MARKET. It is possible to apply these principles to the general stock market. Continuing to use the Dow Jones average as our reference point, we have a decline from the July peak of just over 9,300 to a low of just under 8,400 in mid-August 1998. A rally ensued, reaching 8,750 as the end of August approached. Drama was about to unfold. In the space of four trading days, the Dow plunged over 1,200 points, closing at 7,539 on 31 August. The next day marked some important stock market action. On 1 September the market opened sharply lower and then rallied, rocketing up 300 points on a volume of 1.2 billion shares, THE BIGGEST DAILY VOLUME IN THE HISTORY OF THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE! Smart technical analysts recognised this as a sign that the decline was over for the time being and that a rally would follow. The 7,500 level on the Dow thus equates with the "bargain basement" level of $60 at which our investor in my opening example doubled his shareholding. By the end of September the rally in the Dow was looking very tired ( that was when I wrote my first letter ) . By early October the stock market had dropped again, only to be rebuffed once more by the 7,500 level. The action on 8 October was pivotal. The market opened sharply lower, dropping 300 points to around 7,400 before recovering to close only 10 points down on the day, but - THE VOLUME WAS 1.1 BILLION SHARES, THE THIRD LARGEST DAILY VOLUME ON THE NYSE! Again technical analysts recognised this as action heralding a new rally and it did in fact kick off the BEAR MARKET RALLY described in my Letter number 2. It also marked the second big accumulation at the 7,500 "bargain basement" level and equates with the point where our investor borrowed from the bank to purchase his third tranche of shares at $60 each. The 7,400/7,500 level on the Dow has now ASSUMED VERY GREAT IMPORTANCE. Not only have the largest and third largest daily volumes in stock market history occurred at this level, but ALL TRADING ON THE NYSE OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS HAS BEEN ABOVE THE 7,400/7,500 LEVEL. This is very important because WHEN ( or "if"? ) the Dow drops below the 7,400/7,500 level, THEN EVERYONE WHO HAS BOUGHT SHARES OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS WILL BE SHOWING A LOSS ON THEIR INVESTMENTS. They will be in the same position that our hypotetical investor found himself in when his shares plunged through $60. It will be the first time in 16 years that such a situation will have occurred. IF Wall Street is in the grip of a bear market ( as I believe it is ) , then it is ONLY A MATTER OF TIME before it sinks below that critical 7,400/7,500 level. THAT IS THE TIME when the newspapers will be carrying headlines with the words "PANIC" and "CRASH" in their bold headlines. Thus we come back to that vital question: IS WALL STREET REALLY IN A BEAR MARKET? The best description I recall reading of the transition from bull market to bear market was penned in 1969 by Richard Russell, who writes the "Dow Theory Letters" out of La Jolla, California. He compared the major bull and bear market trends to the tidal forces in the ocean. How does one tell when the incoming tide has reached its peak and started to ebb? ( Assuming, of course, that you cannot look up the calculated times in the daily newspaper. ) With the incoming tide, a wave would sweep higher up the beach than any other wave before it. One would place a peg in the beach at that level. A number of smaller waves would fail to reach the peg, but they would be followed by a giant wave which would again sweep up the beach past one's peg. The peg would be moved higher up the beach to the levels reached by successive giant waves. Eventually there will be a giant wave which fails to reach the peg, followed by another giant wave which fails to reach even the level of the preceding giant wave. One can finally be sure that the tide has turned and is ebbing. How do we apply this to the stock market? We presently have a peg in the Wall Street beach at just above the 9,300 level. This marks the high water mark to date. We are presently riding a giant wave up the beach. As I write this letter, ( after the NYSE close on 4 November ) the giant wave has reached the 8,850 level. If the tide is still rising ( ie the bull market is still alive ) then the present giant wave should exceed the 9,300 peg in the sand. If it falls short of the 9,300 level and starts down in earnest, we will have prima facie evidence that the tide is ebbing and that a bear market is really with us. A downward breach of the 7,400/7,500 level would be final confirmation that the bear market was in place and like the ebbing tide, would be with us for quite some time. This information is somewhat unsatisfactory in that it is vague and doesn't really tell us what to do NOW. This simply illustrates how difficult it is to predict a bull market peak or even identify the peak once it has occurred. My bearish views were based on the following factors: 1. Wall Street had reached levels of over-valuation never before seen in the history of the NYSE. 2. This implied a "Mania" - a situation where participants purchased items without regard for their intrinsic value. 3. A mania will continue for as long as the inflow of funds into the market exceeds the outflow of funds. 4. I identified two major sources of funds to the market which appeared to be drying up. These were ( i ) the flow of money into equity mutual funds and ( ii ) the flow of money from Japan to take advantage of the huge difference between the level of interest rates in Japan and the rest of the world. 5. Once the outflow exceeds the inflow the mania will collapse because the valuation realities will become obvious to all. The flow of funds to equity mutual funds is starting to abate. August saw an OUTFLOW of about $6 billion. ( vs an INFLOW of about $27b in Sept last year ) . The September 1998 estimate is for an INFLOW of about $7 billion. ( vs an INFLOW of $25b is September last year. ) The estimate for October is for another inflow of maybe $12b ( vs $25b last year ) . It may not have turned into an outflow yet, but the trend suggests that the inflow is contracting. The question of borrowing Yen has been spot-lighted recently by the collapse of the US dollar against this currency. It has dropped from 145 Yen to the dollar to 115. This includes one day when it dropped a whopping 10% in 24 hours, something unheard of in a major currrency. What this does is highlight the risks of borrowing Yen to invest abroad, something which one would surely feel would slow down the flow of funds out of Japan. Indeed, it may encourage a large scale repatriation of Yen. Again, the inflow may not have stopped yet, but the trend suggests that it may not be far away. There are a number of other issues that I won't deal with now. What is obvious is that enough has happened to convince me that Wall Street needs another ( new ) source of funds to come into the market to sustain the mania and make up for the decline in the inflows from the sources that I mentioned. THERE IS NO SOURCE OF SUCH A NEW INFLOW OF FUNDS INTO THE MARKET THAT I CAN SEE. In which event, the days of the mania are numbered. In letter number 2 I described a BEAR MARKET RALLY and suggested that such rallies normally regained between 33% and 66% of the preceding decline in the market. This formula targeted a range of 8,100 to 8,700 on the Dow as the likely peak of the rally. I failed to mention, however, that there is one exception to this rule and that relates to the first major rally in a bear market which can sometimes regain the entire loss suffered in the first downleg. The reason is that the euphoria of the bull market is still largely present, causing that first major rally to exceed 66%. That is what has happened on this occasion with the Dow reaching 8,850 today before backing off. I have seen nothing to dissuade me that we are witnessing anything other than a bear market rally. In fact, there are numerous signs of weakness in the market which suggest that the rally is nearing its end. If it didn't end today, then it will surely do so within a day or two. I await devlopments with great interest.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:22 - ID#339274)
Rangy or whatever
FWIW The asset value hasn't changed what has changed is the
buying pattern.Bigger blocks of stock is being bought.
I have been buying at 1 3/4 with that is still 19/32 of the old
Rangy with the benefit that they are making headway in Mali.
Marketmakers are setting the price.And a few people seeing a good deal : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 16:25 - ID#266105)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:00 - ID#219363)
Deflation (2nd verse, same as the 1st)
There is no doubt what-so-ever that this is a time of deflation. It may not be across the board in the states, but it is definitely beginning and will continue. It started in Asia and they're at the point now where their markets are starting to dry up, see the post on recession just yesterday or the day before. Electronics purchases are drying up, the market for goods is drying up, they are being forced to send people to the unemployment line, credit markets are drying up, etc. There isn't any doubt, it is what it is. Then take Russia, everyone said that Russia didn't have a single problem that a higher price on oil wouldn't fix. Why is oil down ? It's deflation baby, that's what they call it when commodity prices fall in unison. But no you say, it's because there is an oversupply of oil on the markets - no, that may be true, but that doesn't explain the falling price of gold, steel, and pretty much every other commodity on the market. It's lack of demand, the markets are drying up on a global scale. So then we get to Brazil, what's Brazil's problem ? Deflation has spread, and now Brazil's exports aren't matching up with her imports, and so there is pressure to devalue the currency to get rid of the account deficit. So what happens if Brazil does devalue ? Welp, that spreads the problem even further, the IMF is just trying to firewall this thing off before it rushes across Europe and the states. But it hasn't hit the states yet, or has it ? Recent job losses in various financial institutions who had offices overseas, that's one way it's hit the shores of the states. Farmers are having it tough, true, there is an oversupply and efficiency has a lot to do with it, but that only matters now because the market for product is no longer growing, and is in fact shrinking. Steel workers are starting to have it tough again, why ? They aren't making any more than they have for the past decade, it's deflation baby, the markets are drying up, and steel workers are going to be on the streets before it's all said and done. Fishermen on the west coast are complaining because they don't have a market for their goods anymore, is it because the dollar was too high ? Well, the dollar has fallen, but the market isn't back. It's not that the goods are too expensive, it's that nobody is buying them! One of their biggest markets was Japan, but that's all over now. The credit markets in the states have went through some trauma, and we even started hearing "credit crunch" thrown around for a while, the market is drying up, or in Wall Street lingo, liquidity is drying up. If you doubt that the people here at Kitco know what they're talking about, look at the predictions from six months ago, Kitco has been calling for deflationary forces to start crashing into US shores since before it ever started happening. People say it isn't happening here, they're WRONG, I'm seeing it all over the place. I just finished seeing it in a bond issue that went bad by a municipality, nobody paid what they were expecting, what they would have gotten last year, the market is drying up. It isn't high dollars, low yen, worthless rubles, low savings rates, high equities, foreign wars, political scandals, interest rates, etc, it isn't nothing like that, it's the market drying up, people are more reluctant to buy overseas, and it's spreading, just like Kitco said it was going to. Consumers can't borrow much more than they already have, corporations can't either, we're leveraged as much as we can be, and so there is nowhere to go but down, destination, slower economy. Greenspan can't do a thing about it. We might wish to believe he can lower rates and thus spur on more domestic demand, but that's only a short term fix, and hasn't a thing to do with a shrinking market overseas. The economy is in gear for a global market, it no longer has a global market, and so it'll have to gear down. Check out those rising inventory numbers. All we need do is get out a map, draw a red line from each country in the world to it's major export market, then draw a green line to the country which supplies it with most of it's imports. Go the the source, Thailand, and follow the lines out. What will you see ? A string of currency devaluations that leads back to the 1st world. We can tinker with Brazil's currency reserves, but it's just delaying execution of an action that was set into motion a long time ago. Lowering the dollar is not going to bring back the US overseas market, it is drying up. If that worked, then Indonesian electronic sales wouldn't be in the tank, they would be booming, as they are cheaper now than they've probably ever been. But sure, I like cheap gasoline.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:01 - ID#194311)
Bankers = Lowlife Spineless Scum
British banker cross-dresses to dodge press at fraud trial

LONDON, Nov 10 ( AFP ) - A banker from the City of London on
Tuesday donned a patterned floral frock, a pink handbag and lashings
of pink blusher and lipstick on Tuesday in a bid to evade
photographers outside his fraud trial.
Peter Young, under investigation for alleged fraudulent deals
that cost the giant Deutsche Bank 615 million dollars and a
two-million pound fine from financial regulators here, arrived at
the courthouse dressed as a woman, an AFP photographer recorded.
But the feminine attire, crowned by a tawny brown wig, could not
disguise Young's masculine form.
The former fund manager, accused with three conspirators of
masterminding a complex fraud plot, again failed to evade detection.
He was ordered to return to court on March 15.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:02 - ID#286230)
Randgold News Release
ADR ANNOUNCEMENT For immediate release


Johannesburg, 10 November - Randgold & Exploration Company announced
today that in compliance with the Nasdaq stock market's maintenance
standards of a minimum bid price of $1, it had consolidated its
Nasdaq-listed American Depositary Receipts ( ADRs ) on a three-for-one
basis. The value of shareholders' holdings is expected to remain
unchanged except for the elimination of fractional interests. As part
of the consolidation process, Randgold's Nasdaq trading symbol has
changed from RANGY to RANYD.

Please be advised that effective open business November 9, 1998,
Randgold & Exploration Company Ltd's ratio changed from one ( 1 ) ADR
representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share to one ( 1 ) ADR representing three
( 3 ) ordinary shares. The ordinary shares will remain the same. The
reason for the reverse split was that the share price was too low to
remain listed on NASDAQ.

The current symbol RANGY will temporarily change to RANYD for 30 days,
after which it will return to RANGY.

Holders of Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 20 8 ) are requested to
exchange these for "new" Randgold ADRs ( CUSIP#: 753009 30 7 ) . Holders
will receive one "new" ADR for every three "old" ADRs that are
presented for exchange.

Please note that Randgold's 144A program ( CUSIP 753009 10 9 ) WILL NOT
be affected by this ratio change and will maintain a ratio of one ( 1 )
ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share.

Effective Date: November 9, 1998

Country of Incorporation: South Africa

Local Custodian: Credit Agricole Indosuez-South Africa,
Societe Generale South Africa Ltd., Nedcor Bank Limited, Standard
Bank of South Africa

Par Value: Rand 0.01

Ratio: 1:3

CUSIP Number: 753009307

Exchange: NASDAQ

Symbol: RANYD for 30 days

If you require any additional information please feel free to contact:

New York
Julio J. Lugo
Vice President
Tel: ( 212 ) 815-2175
Kind regards
Kathy du Plessis

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:04 - ID#43349)
@EJ (LGB - Do you think we're in a bear market for stocks?)
Super good post! Kudos.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:05 - ID#253153)
Commodities are still dropping in price
Have you looked at oil and copper lately ? Copper which is widely used in housing, manufacturing and electronics is hovering around 71 cents per pound. Oil is selling for $13.5 bbl. Despite Opec cut back, countries like Mexico, Russia, Nigeria, Algier, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq and Egypt are producing and selling as much as they can to earn foreign exchange. We are in an era of over production and over supply and countries need the money just to survive. Look at base metals such as Lead, Zinc, etc, they are all sinking in price. Deflation is accelerating and we will begin to see retail price decline only when the banking system in the US begins to experience net contraction. I expect to see net contraction in the banking sector by Q1-2 of 1999. How will we know when the consumer price index declines below 0 ? When the banks are no longer making commercial loans and seeking safe capital , consumer prices ( house wife definition ) will decline in the order of 4-8 % annually.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:11 - ID#269469)
Re: EJ (LGB - Do you think we're in a bear market for stocks?)

Good read, thank you

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:24 - ID#290172)
EJ--yr 16:21

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:27 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 10

Gold 836,648 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 73,999,894 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 69,515 + 0 short tons

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:39 - ID#340262)
Sold 10 shares short of Yahoo at 184 1/2 and a while latter it it fell 177 Maybe I will have to cover in AM at 200, or maybe wait till it goes to 215 and average 20 short at 200.

Tried selling 10 EBAY when it rose 35 points but order was rejected "Wih a terse statement "none avaiable for loan" might be a good buy in A. M.

I wonder if this activity meets Peter Lynch's idea of investing

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:48 - ID#290271)
COMEX Historical Data
FOXMAN: what's a good URL to see historical ( hysterical? ) charts for COMEX inventory over the past months and years? Thanks!

Crystal Ball
(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:55 - ID#287404)
Internet stocks blowoff, rest of the market takes a powder
Ktel doubles from 11 to 22 with intraday high 32!!! EBAY up 28 to 131!!!
Yahoo up a piddling 12 to 176 after being as high as 185 1/2. Lycos only up 2. AOL- shame shame, pretty much unch'ed after being up 5. Methinks the jig is up. $PREM of SPZ8/SP500 only 74. This stock market is in for a hard ride!!!! YeeeeeeeeeHaaaaaawwwwwwwwww!!!! ( just picture Slim Pickens ridin' that A-bomb down )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 17:57 - ID#411259)
..... Took a look at some simple charts today .....

Sans all those lines and squiggles that clutter things up so. The first is a simple monthly gold chart showing that this is a buy opportunity we have not seen for 19 years. The second gold chart shows that recent resistance is setting up for support. This still shows a downside potential of $285, but if it can hold above the line, this could point to and end of the bear.

The weekly silver chart is showing a massive pennant forming. These can break either way, but they always break. Silver still smells strong to me. Downside 4.80 or so.

The last is a weekly platinum. The top line is today's close. The bottom line is the 13 year low of $329. Twixt the two has always proven to be a good time to buy.

I like it.



We go to war this weekend....... yes?

Crystal Ball
(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:00 - ID#306416)
cjk @ Tulipville
I bought a little pile of AOL Nov 140 puts today meself around 11:30am. Hope the crap goes to 100 by next Friday!! Wish us both luck!!

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:00 - ID#242214)
Deflation & Interest Rates

Envy - no, no, no. Lowering interest rates *can* prevent a deflationary collapse. Not delay, but PREVENT it. The key here
is that total debt payments must eventually equal total economic
growth. If Uncle Sam is able to get the AVERAGE interest rate down
to the point where total debt payments out are equal to total
economic growth, we'll be at a point of equilibrium where the
economy does not NECESSARILY have to fail.

Look, if my total interest rate on my house, car and credit cards
is 3%, and I'm getting a 3% raise per year, how long can I last?

I'm sure that this is Greenspan's game plan. To reach a point of

The final failure point will be when "investors" are not willing to
accept a 1.5-2% return on their money, i.e. the REAL rate of return
on the NYSE for now.

What would I do? How would I keep it going? Let's see. Well, okay,
I'm Greenspan with emergency powers - I force a recall on bond
payments paying in excess of 4% interest, print the cash at a rate
under apparent inflation, use the money in deficit spending. In other
words, I take from the haves, give to the have-nots in order to
maintain consumer spending.

The Powers That Be still have many options open. The question is,
will they continue to corrupt the ethical structure of society in
order to maintain the status quo? Will they continue to tilt the
playing ground against savers, thus driving savings rates ever
more negative, in order to keep the game going?

Bully Beef
(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:02 - ID#259282)
I boycotted South African wine for at least 15 years. I t made me happy to know that
in my own way I did one small thing against apartheid. I must have convinced at least 20 people to read the labels and put back on the shelf. S.A. wine is much sweeter now. It is by far a better product.I'm still wondering if it is proper to buy gold shares there. Politically correct even sucks in my books but we all have different tolerances for things. Storm clouds brewin' at the Cape. You know LGB... I think Disney has been baiting you. FOOD FIGHT! FOOD FIGHT!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:06 - ID#411259)
..... Scotty .....

I have 1987 through January 1998 silver warehouse stocks plotted on a bar chart. I do not have my screen capture program loaded up at home so, if you would like, e-mail me at and I can forward the excel spreadsheet to you.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:16 - ID#254288)
Having two high capacity mills on a prolific gold trend will certainly help matters

McWatters Mining: East Amphi Scheduled for First Phase Production.
Mining of exissting open pit ore body will increase MCW's gold production to 200,000 ounces for 1999 and allow for a decision to go underground to mine the indicated 400,000 oz. in the future. Ore grades of the underground ore are about 0.205oz/tonne.



MAKE SURE THAT YOUR BROKER HAS SENT YOU THE "Management Information Circular", minority shareholders need 2/3 vote against to save this first class company from oblivion.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:21 - ID#119358)
@humble pie a la mode.......
all this talk of I became first "load" of 27,000 shares was @ $1.50. Hmmmmmmmmm. Now you can get roughly three for that price! Veeeery deflationary and non-fattening, toO!!! Is da' pie ready momma?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:25 - ID#288230)

rj....chop-asaki metals man.....

war....mmmm see-um smoke signals
of this for some time-um....think-um
oil to the moon soon...mmmm-um...

think-um out loud....oil to moon
soon.....take-um gold with-um.......

this week-end you say....ok....

stunning events will follow.....options
guarantee a ride on the train of pain....
war....maker and breaker of kings...........

war....soon, at a theatre near you....whether
you like it or not....


Tantalus Rex
(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:28 - ID#295111)
Barons want more of HOMESTAKE ... all because of the EURO
German Baron August Von Finck and brother Wilhelm Von Finck are seeking to increase their stake in Homestake from current ownership of 14.2% to 25% BECAUSE OF THE INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO. Check the story out below:

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:29 - ID#288186)
RJ and scotty; Thanks RJ for your assistance. I don't have the historical
data for either. I can see where it would be nice! I may try to search
the web some to see if this data can be found....

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:37 - ID#344286)
AREA PLAY-Carlin/Battle Mountain trends in No. Nevada

Continuing the discovery of the Carlin Trend

AREA PLAY- The Carlin Trend-50 miles long, 5 miles wide including 20 major deposits with a geological resourse of 69 million ounces.

The E&D companies that are presently working/drilling this area of Northern Nevada in my opinion offer high return- low risk potential rewards in spite of Golds beating. The movement is afoot to

now finally say its ok to have some, and a portion of that some should be considered in and around the safe, secure, and potentially humongus reward a basket of these might return. I offer no real insight into the companies I have found and I only have a small position at this time in two of the companies.

I enlist the support of those of you that might see the potential rewards if we all do our due diligence. Perhaps we can add to this list with respect to more plays and more research! contibute.>>>>>>>>>

Meridian Metals Corp.


Inmet mining ( US ) inc.

North Mining Inc.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:41 - ID#288229)


humble pie?

one of the greatest rock bands EVER!

remember '30 days in the hole?'? oh yeah....

black nacramese, its got you weak in the knees....

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:43 - ID#290202)
(former) RANGY, "the hosed"...

John Disney warned us about this Kebble guy. But, we didn't listen.
I bet I will next time.------"fuming in Indiana".

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:48 - ID#290202)
The NEW Apartheid???
No More Kebble stock.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:49 - ID#340262)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 18:55 - ID#30126)
API oil report.
Does anyone know if the API has released the oil report yet???? The last that I heard, they were having 'computer problems'..........

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:03 - ID#254321)
Gold -- Agreed! A little update on Relativity for you.
RJ: It sure looks like gold is moving out of its two year down channel -- finally! Lets hope that WJC does not set off some fireworks in Iraq for Veteran's day -- but if he does it certainly would give gold a good boost!

On silver I don't have a clue -- lost a lot of money on PAASF, but I am determined not to sell my stock. Will buy some more when I can.

Any hints from the floor traders -- rumors about gold fire sales or CB gold purchases? Or the traders buying with both hands yet?

By the way, I learned something new about Space, the Universe, and Everything over the weekend. Turns out that Einstein's General Relativity has beat out all the other front runners such as the Brans-Dicke theory of General Relativity. There is no evidence for the 'Aether wind' from a number of highly significant experiments, such as the Venus doppler radar experiments ( done in the 50's, analyzed more recently ) and lunar laser ranging experiments. I am somewhat disappointed about the lack of evidence for an Aether ( for reasons of understanding 'Zeropoint energy' ) , but excited that Einstein got it right to many decimal places in a number of modern spacefaring experiments. Amazing that he guessed right with so little information -- he thought that setting a scalar constant zero in his theory was one of the biggest blunders of his life. Wish I made blunders like Einstein did.

Did you know that the relative gravitational attraction of the Moon and earth verifies the equivalence principle to many orders of magnitude ( better than one part in 10 to the power of 10, IMHO ) ? The gravitational constant seems to be a universal constant after all, and any mass ( regardless of its composition or shape ) does indeed seem to have the expected gravitational acceleration, to amazingly great precision. It boggles the mind that inertia and Gravity are equivalent across the known universe. That is telling us something -- if we only knew for sure what.

The gravitational constant G has now been measured with such accuracy that the only remaining question is whether it changes with the expansion of the universe ( which it probably does ) .

And -- did you know that the speed of light really is not 'constant' in general relativity? Don't need the Aether wind to explain the funny things with gravitational lensing, doppler radar anomalies, etc. I finally realized this when I read an article about Black holes and the bending of light around massive objects. Technically, the speed of light is constant, but when light goes by a massive object, it is deflected and takes longer to get to where it is going ( because of the new path due to the deflection ) . How does this relate to the speed of light not being 'constant'? Well, a similar process happens in refractive media such as a diamond, except that the delay is not due to gravity, it is due to resonant electromagnetic interactions of the light with the carbon atoms. To an outside observer, the speed of light in diamond is ( I think ) approximately 1/2 that of empty space. But -- if you were tracing the actual path of light through the various interactions in the diamond, you would think the speed of light was unchanged.

So the speed of light is not really constant in this sense, even in General Relativity -- as in the diamond -- it just depends on where the observer is! Perhaps this is why Einstein's theory of Relativity has withstood the test of time ( pun intended ) . So those who guestion Einsteins theory of General Relativity have alot less to question these days -- even the question of the constancy of the speed of light.

What really puzzles me is that the success of General Relativity makes it even tougher for me to understand the Quantum Universe -- even more subtle in certain ways no than I thought it would be! Quantum mechanics would probably still drive Einstein nuts.

I love that quote from him, that 'God does not play dice'.

Have a nice Veteran's day, everyone!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:03 - ID#242214)
@Gentleman Mooney
Here is a Thrue Gentleman!

Date: Tue Nov 10 1998 08:28
Mooney* ( @Oliver and Aurator ) ID#350194:
Oliver - In case you show up today I want to apologize for sounding a little harsh in my Y2K comment last night.


P.S. In fact: I had been misunderstood yesterday when I was making a Kitco relation to a Site witch had been shot down by mysterious authoridad!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:05 - ID#29048)
due diligence
I am confused. How am I, a RANYD/RANGY shareholder "hosed"? Since I did not sell, but instead held my ground and added to it near the new low prices, did I not do a good thing? As soon as the news was released about the ticker change and stock split, controversy was apparent ( at least to me ) . There were conflicting reports from various brokers, including mine ( Fidelity ) . The right move was to go get clarification from Rangold, which several of us received today. Gold is going up. RANYD is going to head right back up. I believe that irritation is better directed to the brokerage houses which read the wrong announcement and failed to find the correct one. But even that is not unusual considering the small following of this little ADR. This KITCO is priceless for the exchange of information in exactly this kind of situation. THANKS!!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:06 - ID#210114)
Beaming In....

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:07 - ID#210114)

November 11 Armistace Day, a bushranger was slaughtered and Gough was betrayed,

November 11 he wouldn't survive the Governor-General in '75

November 11, a big day for all of us,

I said November 11, Ned Kelly died, Shame Fraser Shame how we all cried for you Gough.......

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:08 - ID#210114)
Paraphrasing Eisenhower

"We must guard against the aquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the international financial markets.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes."

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:08 - ID#237299)
RJ: screen captures in windo$z
For future reference, if you want to do a quick screen capture: Open the spreadsheet and get the image centered in the screen. Hit the print screen key. ( This copies the virtual image to the clipboard ) Go to start/programs/accessories/wordpad and open it up. Hit edit/paste. Bingo-your screen capture. Save the file with sensible name- and upload to the center of the known universe: Kitco.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:08 - ID#242214)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:15 - ID#254321)
Negative savings rates!
All: Could not resist this! If Japan can have negative interest rates, why can't we have negative savings rates? Amazing what sleight of hand you can do with a computer -- especially if it has Windows 95 on it! Negative savings rates could be a new gimmick to drive the 'Computerized' Equity markets into the stratosphere! Isn't it amazing when we now consider Fiat ( real paper ) currency something to stock up on along with gold?

I have long ago given up on trying to figure out exactly how Windows 95 works -- and I hear Windows 2000 is coming out in February, nonetheless!

Perhaps it will be delayed due to Windows 2k bugs! Fitting!

Can't be a free upgrade, either. And if it doesn't work, you will not have a clue how to fix it -- unless you by another program to 'diagnose' it for you. Doesn't seem to get cheaper, does it?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:29 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now....
Live Long and Prosper.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:37 - ID#45173)
How's this for a concise rationalization about negative savings rates?
"Let's start with the American consumer. On the surface, a negative personal
saving rate seems like a classic smoking gun, warning of a severely over-
extended household sector. Indeed, the last time this happened was back in
the early 1930s, hardly a comforting precedent. The personal saving rate as
it is now measured depicts the balance between household expenditures and
the income that is generated by current production in the real economy. Last
July, the income figures were modified to exclude capital gains on financial
assets ( i.e., mutual funds ) ; while this is consistent with the long-standing
underpinnings of the national income accounts -- largely a production-based
construct -- it had the important effect of lowering previous estimates of the
personal saving rate by as much as two full percentage points. Such a
revision doesn't mean personal saving vanished into thin air. It just implies
that consumers have been spending a much larger portion of their
production- based income than we had previously thought.

"All this is another way of stating the obvious -- that consumers have turned
to means other than cash-based income in order to achieve life-cycle saving
goals. The culprit is undoubtedly a surging stock market, which by
generating $4.5 trillion of appreciation since late 1994, alone, has spawned
a new strain of wealth-dependent households that have become perfectly
comfortable with vaporizing their cash-based saving balances. There is,
however, nothing sacrosanct about the "0" threshold in the reported saving
rate. As long as the stock market holds up reasonably well and income
generation remains intact, there is good reason to believe that the saving rate
may dip further into negative territory. The corollary of this call underscores
two potential developments which might trigger a reversion of the saving
rate back toward its historical mean -- another 20% correction in the stock
market ( to Dow 7000 ) or an unexpected hiring/income shortfall. While I
believe that these are both low-probability outcomes, they certainly do have
the potential to spark a burst of precautionary saving. If, for example, the
cash-based personal saving rate was to return in two years time to just half
the 7.6% average that prevailed over the 1960-89 period, then our estimates
suggest that consumer spending growth would have to fall a full 2.0
percentage points below the pace of income generation over that period.
That, in turn, would depress real GDP growth by at least 1.3 percentage
points -- easily the stuff of outright recession. "

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:38 - ID#290202)
...a paper loss is a very real loss...
"I did not sell, therefore I did not lose.", not reality. It is Ostrich.
( pardon my bluntness ) ------still "fuming in Indiana".

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:44 - ID#413273)
Bully Beef.......Many of us have done dumb things when we were young,how dumb we were depends on our
source of info at the time ... your post.... I assume..... you only got one side of the story.....the following URL is what you get to-day in South Africa the truth behind the lie......aparthied was far more humane

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:46 - ID#290202)
...oh yeah,
No More Kebble stock.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:48 - ID#290202)
"shareholder abuse"...

Should be outlawed.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:49 - ID#348286)
What is your view on the theory of everything? Einstein was probably on the right track and may have figured out how to unite the his theory of relativity and quantum physics, had he lived a bit longer.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:51 - ID#43460)
a story of the Fed
There was a fellow once who graduated with a Master's Degree in economics from Cambridge. He searched all over but the job market was very tight and he had no luck even gaining an interview until he applied for a position with the Fed.

On his interview the chairman of the search committee asked him, "well, having this degree is fine but what is your area of specialty?"

He replied, "Counting, sir, I'm an expert in counting."

He proceeded to put on a fine display of counting, worthy of AG himself, counting quickly on his fingers up to ten then back down again to zero.

The committee murmered among themselves, as it had been many years since they'd seen such a dexterous display of finger counting. Their heads went together and after several minutes of consultation they nodded their approval and asked the young man what was his first name again?

The young man quickly and silently counted on his fingers, then running out pulled off a shoe and counted a couple of toes. After a pause he replied, "Buford, sir."

Again there was a murmer and all the heads of the committeemen went together. Finally the spokesman asked, "Well, we see why you'd need your fingers to count but why to answer your name?"

He smiled proudly and answered, ticking off fingers, "Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy..."

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:56 - ID#29048)
Fume if you must. IMO, The volatility of the past two days is temporary and caused in large part by many people reacting instead of responding to fuzzy news. I not only didn't sell, I bought more. There were some strong hands in the thick of things today, picking up 10 and 20 thousand shares in large blocks. It remains to be seen whether that is a correct decision, but that's why I like tradin' stocks over parking in cds.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:57 - ID#263456)
Rangy/ last words on this subject

OK...I got hosed too...big time ( not as bad as Studio.R ) ...but big time for me. I bought more this morning at the low price ... cause I thought the price would go back up to $2.50 or so...which it should have....but....
I SUSPECT that the "market makers"... brokerage firms ..made the market .. and kept the confusion over the price ..or used the confusion to keep the price low while they loaded up...and watch it now go back to $2.50. If so, I'm going back up with it...

IAE, ( In any event ) ...Rangy is primed to soar if the POG will get off it's hiney and move back into the $300's ...

That is all... ( from me ) ...Go Gold..Go Rangy

Got opinions?

"If you are going to do your dance on the edge of a sword ...stay light!!"


(Tue Nov 10 1998 19:59 - ID#35757)
More humane perhaps, but not PC.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:02 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.25. The 233 day moving average is 28.96

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:04 - ID#147211)
Cueball re Carlin
If you can get the maps and reports, I'll do my best to interpret. I went thru most of your reference, but nothing available but order references. The place could be good, Charlie. If you prefer-

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:07 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .267. The 233 day moving average is .248

Mike Stewart
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:08 - ID#270253)
Repadre Resources
Before I say anything here, remember to always do your own homework and you can live with your own decisions. I appreciate ideas, but I call the shots for my money. You should do the same.

I bought some Repadre today for $2.50 CDN as a value play and a gold play. They are a junior "Franco Nevada" type royalty company. They have about $2.75 a share in cash ( mainly ) , gold and marketable junior securities. Book value is around $5.00 per share when the existing royalties are included. Debt is very low at .32 per share. They have a 1% royalty starting in 2001 on the huge diamond mine known as Diavik ( Aber ) . This alone will provide 25 cents a share. They earn about 16 to 20 cents right now. The distressed financing in junior gold companies is allowing Repadre to cut great new royalty deals. The parent company is Dundee Bancorp ( Ned Goldman ) , a well known entity.

I am always patient with value investments as they usually take some time to be appreciated, both in sentiment and price. I don't think that this is covered much outside of Canada.Ticker RPD in Toronto

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:09 - ID#219363)
Deflation & Rates
Sorry for the delay, I was at a meeting. : )

Who Cares ?: NO!! to infinite. *grin*

If cutting rates was going to work for the US, wouldn't you think it would have worked for Japan ? Cutting rates didn't do a thing for Japan except hurt them and prolong the misery. The problem in Japan isn't that they're carrying too much bad real estate debt, though that is bad. If that were the problem, then their only threat would have been a loss of confidence in mortgage backed securities. It's just an excuse for investors to pull out of the country. Japan's REAL problem is that their markets are going to hell, that is, their export markets. Why are Japan's corporate profits falling off ? It ain't gotta thing to do with a lack of easy money to fund expansion and cover corporate debt payments, it's got everything to do with a loss of market, a slow-down in the economy. High interest rates were never the problem. Now Japan is basically GIVING money away and they can't get their people to shop with it, that's deflation. Individuals all the way up to big ole corporations won't borrow money if their real gross incomes are declining, why ? The same reason that they'll bet the whole farm on debt financing when their real gross incomes are rising, the same reason that American citizens have a negative savings rate, because it's always going to get better. But in a deflation, it's always going to get worse. It isn't about covering your 3% mortgage with your 3% income increase, it's about you being scared, not borrowing anymore, not buying that new car. Joe 6 will run himself up against a debt wall if his wages are rising fast enough, but as it slows, so too does his borrowing. The FED can't push the string. All the easy credit in the world isn't going to help a farmer's crops sell for a higher price. Sure, he can purchase a new tractor for lower APR than ever before, but he's not going to do it if his real gross income isn't rising fast, is even, or at worst, falling. I never said deflation had to end in collapse.

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:12 - ID#242214)
Negative Savings Rate

Wow. Today has been fruitful. One comment on "ridiculous conspiracy
theories" and now it turns out that the negative savings rate isn't
really that bad because it simply shows that everyone was really
just spending faster than previous measurements implied.

They can keep this game going, pals. The interest rate inversion,
particularly for the U.S., wasn't strong or long enough. I feel
sorry for the U.K and Italy, but I think our pals in Washington
will escape financial justice for yet another quarter. : )

To paraphrase somebody at Kitco -

"What good is cheap platinum if you can't find any to buy?"

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:12 - ID#431200)
Rangy had 41,388,000 shares issued.So Ranyd should have 13,796,000 shares issued .At a price of $1 7/8 per share, this gives a market capitalization of $25,867,500 .I think that their investor relations need improvement.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:12 - ID#350194)
Welcome Bud! - Who loves ya babe! ( said the fat bald man with the sucker hanging out his mouth ) .

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:16 - ID#350194)
@Oliver - Reprise
BTW - Thrue is probably just as correct and shows that your subconcious is still vitally connected to your ancestors!

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:17 - ID#242214)
Deflation & Interest Rates

Maybe you ain't been keeping up with current events, Envy, but
Japan HAS prevented a deflationary collapse for EIGHT YEARS now.

I call that a significant event, significant enough to include in
the investment decision-making process. : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:18 - ID#29048)
Rangold had 41 million shares extant. A small percentage of those shares trade in the U.S. as ADRs. Only the ADRs split.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:19 - ID#18355)
can someone explain the poison pill?
check post 13:06 today, on hm and finck what is this rule regarding ownership over 15% equalling the need of a poison pill? can someone of knowledge explain. thanks

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:22 - ID#413273)
morblus....I have never been PC ....screws up the facts...I got over name calling a long time ago..
if telling the truth does not sit well with some ....tough

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:23 - ID#242214)
Fear and Loathing in Los Oros, Envy. :)

Come on. Nobody is scared. *Everybody* knows that Uncle Sam is going
to prop the market back up. He *has* to now. It's a sure thing! : )

And I imagine that he will, too. Remember, judge Greenspan by goals,
not reality.

The Goal - reach equilibrium. Get total outflow due to borrowing to
equal total economic growth. That's the goal. A reduction in AVERAGE
interest rates and a continued LOWER REAL RETURN on stocks will
accomplish this goal. Ergo - mortgage rates are *still* under 7%,
Uncle Sam is still borrowing for significantly less than three
months ago, the real return on stocks is SHRINKING as the market
goes back up.

And now we have the country confirming that they want continued
lies and ignorance by keeping our lying scumbag president in office.

THAT is a bad sign. That suggests to me that the majority of the
population are more than ready to continue down the path of
delusion. And they've got our Arkansas buddy to help them out.

Betting against this at your peril. : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:24 - ID#119358)
@cherOkee......I'll have coconut cream pie or..........

un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:25 - ID#413273)
morblus....I have never been PC ....screws up the facts...I got over name calling a long time ago..
if telling the truth does not sit well with some ....tough

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:27 - ID#350194)
Humbley Submitting!
cherokee - Saw your post in short version about the Pie and IMMEDIATELY my mind was to make a post about 30 Days In The Hole. Checked you out in full version and those were your first extra words. Uncanny. And you blast fence posts for fun!? 'Course what else is there to do down there in that god forsaken gila monster rattlesnake and scorpion infested territory some call HOME? Boy had a sweet baby face for the woman too and also some sweet love songs to make the ladies happy while he crooned. Bass player kept it all together. Made mucho ORO.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:31 - ID#219363)
@Yellowcab, @Who Cares ?
@Who Cares ?

*grin*, one of us will be right. : ) I hope it's you.


POISON PILL: Strategic move by a takeover-target company to make its stock less attractive to an acquirer. For instance, a firm may issue a new series of preferred stock that gives shareholders the right to redeem it at a premium price after a takeover. Two variations: a flip-in poison pill allows all existing holders of target company shares except the acquirer to buy additional shares at a bargain price; a flip-over poison pill allows holders of common stock to buy ( or holders of preferred stock to convert into ) the acquirer's shares at a bargain price in the event of an unwelcome merger. Such measures raise the cost of an acquisition, and cause dilution, hopefully deterring a takeover bid. A third type of poison pill, known as a people pill, is the treat that in the event of a successful takeover, the entire management team will resign at once, leaving the company without experienced leadership. See also pension parachute, poison put, suicide pill

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

God bless my grandfather and veterans everywhere.

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:37 - ID#242214)
I full expect the Powers That Be to keep the system going for another
six months. I just can't see betting against it anymore. Whenever
I think about betting against the Federal Reserve, I keep picturing
Steve Puetz pounding his head against the floor, moaning in agony,
bitten not once, but TWICE by Greenspan now. : )

Just can't do it.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:39 - ID#431200)
Randgold's 144A program?
What is the 144A Randgold's program ? I will appreciate if somebody could explain the meaning of these words.Thanks. " Please note that Randgold's 144A program ( CUSIP 753009 10 9 ) WILL NOT be affected by this ratio change and will maintain a ratio of one ( 1 "ADR representing one ( 1 ) ordinary share".

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:41 - ID#386245)
Was out attending a wake last night so missed supporting you in the bun-fight.

The 'narcissistic northerner' that you demolished with reason could very well be posting in german right now, along with the rest of us, had his views prevailed 60 years ago. There are times when tyrants must be faced. If Hitler had been allowed to harness his scientists and develop 'the bomb' before the US, my above statement could well be reality in a VERY different world.

I am all for personal freedom and against the 'tyranny' of government. I recognize, however, that this tyranny is relative. The 'narcissistic northerner' should spend some time in China or Indonesia ( as we have ) . He would then return to the US, kiss the ground, and praise his government and the system under which it operates. While far from perfect, it is way ahead of whatever is in 2nd place ( relatively speaking ) .

Narcissists, as a rule though, cannot see past their own delusional concerns. Sprechenze Deutsche, Mozel?? Damned lucky you don't!!!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:42 - ID#408228)
Poison pills explained
A poison pill is an anti-takeover device used by corporations to forestall a hostile takeover. If triggered ( and they never are, because the cost is too high ) ,they roughly allow a regular holder of stock, other than the hostile bidder, to buy double the value of the stock for half the price. Pills are triggered when a stock buyer that's unfriendly to management buys shares in excess of a percentage ( usually 10-15% ) stipulated by the pill. If a friendly holder wishes to exceeds the limit, the pill can be redeemed for a nominal amount, or the company's Board of Directors can pass a resolution that allows the holder to buy.

Bully Beef
(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:45 - ID#259282)
Robnoel ...I don't deny that some innocent rural and urban Africans have died
in horrible crimes.It is sad. But so was government sanctioned murder under apartheid. Quite frankly I don't know the statistics but I would prefer you quote a more reliable source for your information. Anyhow I wasn't baiting you....Look ...I'm dropping this .I know everyone is sick of this crap and after all this is a golf site. I just happen to hate some of the clothed references and alterior motives for things said here. Just because something is written doesn't mean it is true. Consider the source. For every action an equal and opposite reaction.
I still like gold as an investment.I think it will go up because the world's finances are fundamentally screwed up. However I don't blame the problems on the poor or various racial groups. I blame it on unregulated greed. You and I don't make the rules. The guys who have billions do. We don't get bailed out when we lose at the race track. They do.Long Term.
The golden rule ..."Them that owns the gold makes the rules."
I may be in your opinion a socialist snake but my venom isn't near as bad as some of what is said around here. I think there are a lot of young minds hanging out on this site...Freedom... This is a good site and there are diverse views. That's a good thing. I just can't sit here and ignore some comment I think is distasteful or when a number of things are said and a few of you pat each other on the back.At any rate I can choose to leave if it gets really bad . No great loss since I have little of value to add in terms of gold and ethics or morality. In the meantime I'm hanging out. Gidday!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:49 - ID#190411)
A must read for lovers of Liberty
I ran across this article at Zola Times.

T1, cherokee, Earl, mozel, and even aurator; a must read!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:51 - ID#219363)
AMERICAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPT ( ADR ) : receipt for the shares of a foreign-based corporation held in the value of a U.S. bank and entitling the shareholder to all dividends and capital gains. Instead of buying shares of foreign-based companies in overseas markets, Americans can buy shares in the U.S. in the form of an ADR. ADRs are available for hundreds of stocks from numerous countries.

Source: Barron's Fiance & Investment Handbook Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

Sounds like they're just saying that each ADR will continue to be worth 1 share of the stock. I've seen before were people will consolidate them, that is, make a change like 1 "new" ADR equals 10 of the "old" ADRs.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:52 - ID#386245)
To my relatives(and yours) who died fighting Hitler...
...and to all the loved ones we have never met:


(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:52 - ID#348286)
@Hmmmmmmm - What Goldbugs already know...........

COM'ON. Tell the world that you're rigging the market.

The Federal Reserve is just dying to admit that it has been doing brilliant - but alas, questionable - things to keep the stock market bubble inflated. A Wall Street Journal article on Monday is the closest the Fed has ever come to making this admission, although the newspaper apparently didn't know what it was on to.

The Journal story was about the bailout of the hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, and how the Fed stepped in to save the day.

The story gets interesting in the seventh paragraph, when it starts talking about Peter Fisher, the 42-year-old, No. 2 man at the New York Fed, whose official job is running the Fed's trading operation.

In that capacity, Mr. Fisher is the Fed's eyes and ears on the inner workings of stock, bond and currency markets and is given a wide degree of latitude about deciding when certain events pose broader risks, the article says.

He begins most workdays at 5 a.m. by checking the status of overseas markets...and ends them 11 p.m. the same way. In between Mr. Fisher SWAPS intelligence and rumors with traders and dealers from his office in the Fed's 10th-floor executive suite that overlooks the trading floor he runs, the piece continues.

As I pointed out in a previous column, the market has done some strange things in the wee hours of the morning, especially between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m., which ultimately affect how equities do in the New York market.

Now I'm not necessarily against rigging the stock market. In fact, back when stock prices were collapsing a few months ago and everyone was whining, I wrote in this column that someone at the Fed or the Treasury ought to figure out how to rig the market and start doing it.

I even pointed them to a piece in the Journal back in October 1989 when former Fed governor Robert Heller, suggested that it was the government's responsibility to rig the market in times of emergency.

But I also believe that if the markets are being supported by the government that Washington should be responsible enough to alert the investing public. If people still want to put money in the market, fine. Maybe they'll even want to put more in.

Remember Tokyo rigged its stock market for many, many years until its stock market collapsed and destroyed the economy.

Now back to Fisher.

What exactly does he give to these traders and dealers he talks to at 5 a.m. in the morning? Swaps, which is the word the Journal reporter came away with, implies a give-and-take. What is Fisher, the second highest person in the New York Fed's hierarchy giving to traders?

Just gossip? Or is Fisher giving away what Wall Street calls inside information.

And why are Fisher and the Fed concerned about the stock market? The Fed has jurisdiction over the dollar and, as an extension, bonds. It would be a big expansion of the Fed's powers to suddenly have authority over stocks.

But since this nation's economy has become so dependent on the stock market's success, the Fed's current interest in equities would not be surprising.

I asked to talk with Fisher. I said I wanted to know about his interest in the stock market and the swapping of information.

The Fed wouldn't allow it. I'm sorry but we've not going to make Peter available, said a spokesman in New York. He's kinda busy. I think the spotlight on him right now is a little too bright.

You're damned right it is too bright - it almost caught him doing his trick with the market.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:53 - ID#219363)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:54 - ID#413273)
Bully Beef....I enjoy banter with yourself and of my oldest friends is Jewish,Socialist

and yes a lawyer......he was a commie in South Africa where we grew up together...he is a commie today in LA.....we disagree on everything however we still friends.....besides he is a good lawyer..:- )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:58 - ID#411198)
Interesting week next week!!
But.... it to shall pass.

The next FOMC ( Fed ) meeting on the 17th of this month.. 11/17/98
11/17/98.....11+17+98=126...1+2+6= ( 9 ) .. End of a cycle.
Leonid Meteor Shower .. 11/17/98
Testing G5 Satellite... 11/17/98

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:58 - ID#206235)
@ EJ....Are we in a bear market?
To answer you.... I lean toward ... the very center of the debate!! We were certainly in a bear market a month ago. We're very likely to see some downward moves on the overbought DOW. But a primary Bear? We'll see......

The problem with the well reasoned Bear theories from Prudent Bear, is that I've seen variations on these themes ( albeit with differing global factors etc. ) for 2 decades now.

Were we in a Bear market for stocks in 1980? Many "Prudent Bear" types like Granville sure thought so...when DOW was at 777 for a bottom. The folks who followed their advice and bought into their have they done since with their investments? They lost about 95% of their investment moneys if they bought metals instead of stocks. That's how they've done.

I don't like P/E ratios of 28 in a market that is sure to see some corporate earnings disappointments over the next few quarters as we begin a global recovery. Yet I also believe the U.S. and European economies are very strong.....too strong to bring down right now....and that the FED will pump liquidity into this market and this will the G7 countries, as they have been demonstrating with several rounds of rate cuts.

As far as I'm concerned, we are just as likely to see DOW 10,000 in the next year, as DOW 6700 ( which I believe IMHO is an ultimate support level. )

Consequently, risk/reward being what it ISN'T..I remain fully OUT the broad market....but IN the market on a day to day basis anywhere from 40% to 100% in selected stocks ( primarily the company I work for..because the business and earnings future will be such that I feel huge gains may be made even in a down market ) .

I have substantial metals related investments as a partial hedge, and partially because they've been beaten too low to remain at these levels on a sustained basis. Silver and Platinum should see shortage siutations so fundamentals will drive them. CB's have shifted away from massive Gold sales. I like the metals and mining shares... as a 20% or so portion of my investment portfolio.

When and if the global economic situation begins improving...and earnings start rising again...then I'll be willing to say that in the LONG run...stocks will outperform most other investments.

Listen EJ...clever stock bear arguments about debt ratios, and inflation, and taxation rates, and shifting demographics, and Asian miracle economies burying the West, and complex TA formula's showing the imminent collapse of the stock market ( not to mention lunar eclispe theories... ) etc. etc etc. have been going on for a long time. TOO long for those who bought into them 5, 10, 15, or 20 years ago.

The fact is...stocks have outperformed in the modern economy we live with today. This long term trend will continue as economic activity continues to grow, which it will...over the long run.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:58 - ID#288286)
the truth
Why is it when ssomeone talks about the black on white crime some people want to excuse it because of the white on black crime is or was worse? The truth is blacks account for a huge percentage of all crime compared to whites. Black murder and rape of whites is 5 to 1 larger than white to black. I wish it would all stop but truth is truth.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:58 - ID#288229)

fact or fiction....or both?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 20:59 - ID#31868)
ERLE, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...thanks for the post...will read later, its being
printed as we speak...I still say the next pole they bring to Clintler should be stuck where the Sun don't shine...that will get his attention...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:01 - ID#386245)
Forgive me...
...for lumping WW II relatives in with those who fought in WW I. Today is the 11th day of the 11th month of the 80th year after WW I. Remembrance Day. I post freely to you today due to their sacrifice.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:03 - ID#206235)
Big Platinum, Silver, and Gold dumping sales....Look out!
Look out market players. I'm going to run some Ebay "test" auctions on Platinum Eagles, Gold Saint Gaudens, next week and some Silver coin roll also. Just want to see what the true open market sentiment is out there, and what kind of bids they go for. Can the market sustain a few ounces dumping without a crash?

I promise to report results. Havn't sold on Ebay for about 6 months now...I think I'll see bids a lot higher than before. We'll see... Going to repeat this every few months..... but only with a small percentage of holdings.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:06 - ID#411259)
..... Thanks for the capture tip .....

Here is a bar chart showing COMEX silver inventories from January 1987 to January 1998. The rest is , how you say, history.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:09 - ID#206235)
@ Nick @ C.... Also, Birthday of Marine Corp.
Appropriate day for the discussion as it's also the bithday of the U.S. Marine Corps.... and I must say, many of us greatly appreciate the tremendous sacrifices those men have made to preserve freedom for the rest of us. There is simply no way to repay them, not to fully compensate them for what they did, particularly in WW2.

Gratitude to all the men at arms, from all the countries who fought tyrrany and totalatrian regimes

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:09 - ID#410165)
The following story has been around for a will make grown men cry

He was in the first third grade class I taught at Saint Mary's School in

Morris, Minn. All 34 of my students were dear to me, but Mark Eklund was

one in a million. Very neat in appearance, but had that happy-to-be-alive

attitude that made even his occasional mischievousness delightful.

Mark talked incessantly. I had to remind him again and again that talking

without permission was not acceptable. What impressed me so much, though,

was his sincere response every time I had to correct him for misbehaving.

"Thank you for correcting me, Sister!" I didn't know what to make of it at

first, but before long I became accustomed to hearing it many times a day.

One morning my patience was growing thin when Mark talked once too often,

and then I made a novice-teacher's mistake. I looked at Mark and said, "If

you say one more word, I am going to tape your mouth shut!" It wasn't ten

seconds later when Chuck blurted out; "Mark is talking again." I hadn't

asked any of the students to help me watch Mark, but since I had stated the

punishment in front of the class, I had to act on it.

I remember the scene as if it had occurred this morning. I walked to my

desk, very deliberately opened by drawer and took out a roll of masking

tape. Without saying a word, I proceeded to Mark's desk, tore off two

pieces of tape and made a big X with them over his mouth. I then returned

to the front of the room. As I glanced at Mark to see how he was doing,

he winked at me. That did it!! I started laughing. The class cheered as I

walked back to Mark's desk, removed the tape, and shrugged my shoulders.

His first words were, "Thank you for correcting me, Sister."

At the end of the year, I was asked to teach junior-high math. The years

flew by, and before I knew it Mark was in my classroom again. He was more

handsome than ever and just as polite. Since he had to listen carefully

to my instruction in the "new math," he did not talk as much in ninth

grade as he had in third. One Friday, things just didn't feel right. We

had worked hard on a new concept all week and I sensed that the students

were frowning, frustrated with themselves - and edgy with one another. I


to stop this crankiness before it got out of hand. So I asked them to list

the names of the other students in the room on two sheets of paper,

leaving a space between each name. Then I told them to think of the nicest

thing they could say about each of their classmates and write it down. It

took the

remainder of the class period to finish their assignment, and as the

students left the room, each one handed me the papers. Charlie smiled.


said, "Thank you for teaching me, Sister. Have a good weekend."

That Saturday, I wrote down the name of each student on a separate sheet

of paper, and I listed what everyone else had said about that individual.

On Monday I gave each student his or her list. Before long, the entire

class was smiling. "Really?" I heard whispered. "I never knew that meant


to anyone!" "I didn't know others liked me so much." No one ever mentioned

those papers in class again. I never knew if they discussed them after

class or with their parents, but it didn't matter. The exercise had

accomplished its purpose. The students were happy with themselves and one

another again.

That group of students moved on. Several years later, after I returned

vacation, my parents met me at the airport. As we were driving home,

Mother asked me the usual questions about the trip - the weather, my

experiences in general. There was a lull in the conversation. Mother gave

Dad a side-ways glance and simply says, "Dad?" My father cleared his

throat as he usually did before something important. "The Eklunds called

last night," he began. "Really?" I said. "I haven't heard from them in


I wonder how Mark is." Dad responded quietly. "Mark was killed in

Vietnam," he said. "The funeral is tomorrow, and his parents would like it

if you could attend."

To this day I can still point to the exact spot on I-494 where Dad told

me about Mark.

I had never seen a serviceman in a military coffin before. Mark looked so

handsome, so mature. All I could think at that moment was, 'Mark, I would

give all the masking tape in the world if only you would talk to me.'

The church was packed with Mark's friends. Chuck's sister sang "The Battle

Hymn of the Republic." Why did it have to rain on the day of the funeral?

It was difficult enough at the graveside. The pastor said the usual

prayers, and the bugler played taps. One by one those who loved Mark took

a last walk by the coffin and sprinkled it with holy water. I was the

last one to bless the coffin. As I stood there, one of the soldiers who

acted as pallbearer came up to me. "Were you Mark's math teacher?" he

asked. I nodded as I continued to stare at the coffin. "Mark talked about

you a lot," he said.

After the funeral, most of Mark's former classmates headed to Chuck's

farmhouse for lunch. Mark's mother and father were there, obviously waiting

for me. "We want to show you something," his father said, taking a wallet

out of his pocket. "They found this on Mark when he was killed. We

thought you might recognize it." Opening the billfold, he carefully

removed two worn pieces of notebook paper that had obviously been taped,

folded and refolded many times. I knew without looking that the papers

were the ones on which I had listed all the good things each of Mark's

classmates had said about him. "Thank you so much for doing that," Mark's

mother said. "As you can see, Mark treasured it."

Mark's classmates started to gather around us. Charlie smiled rather

sheepishly and said, "I still have my list. It's in the top drawer of my

desk at home."

Chuck's wife said, "Chuck asked me to put his in our wedding album."

"I have mine too," Marilyn said. "It's in my diary."

Then Vicki, another classmate, reached into her pocketbook, took out her

wallet and showed her worn and frazzled list to the group. "I carry this

with me at all times," Vicki said without batting an eyelash. "I think we

all saved our lists."

That's when I finally sat down and cried. I cried for Mark and for all his

friends who would never see him again.


Written by: Sister Helen P. Mrosla

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:10 - ID#386245)
Have you ever lived in China??
Count your blessings, mate.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:11 - ID#431200)
Envy and Speed Thanks Very Much for your help (Goldteck)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:11 - ID#431200)
Envy and Speed Thanks Very Much for your help (Goldteck)

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:15 - ID#254321)
Was Einstein of the right track?
MoReGolD: Almost certainly. He came up with General Relativity with almost no experimental evidence, and his incredible ability to think simply -- almost like a child -- back to the foundations of Physics. Not the 'laws' derived by others, but to the raw information on which the laws are based. His thought experiments -- no data needed -- are legendary.

Most theoretical Physicists I know ( mostly knew as I am not the theoretical type ) are/were mathematicians first and Physicists second -- plenty of math knowledge, but little Physics intuition. I hope that we have someone in the background with his brilliance -- but no one comes to mind. Part of the reason for this is that Einstein's real brilliance has only become evident since we have been in space, looking at Quasars/binary stars and looking for Black holes. Also post radiotelescopy.

Unfortunately Quantum Mechanics does not lend itself as well to what is called Physics intuition, as this field is alien to our normal everyday experience. But -- if Einstein had been at his peak say another 50 years -- his might have come up with a Grand unified theory of everything.

Well that was not to be -- what we need now is a real breakthrough in 'MacroQuantum Mechanics' what quantum mechanics means to us in our reality, not the reality of elementary particles. As one famous physicist recently said -- Can't recall who -- modern physics may only really advance when we include not just classical physics, but some sort of 'metaphysics' -- some novel way to understand the continuity of time and space as one -- easy to talk about loosely but nearly impossible to understand.

Here's a clue for you -- Wavelet analysis is really hot these days for graphical analysis: efficient compression algorithms, rapid image analysis, efficient moving image generation, etc. Q: What is wavelet analysis? A: A sort of 'quantum' fourier transform. Our computer screens have quantized information ideally suited for wavelet analysis. And space itself is probably grainy at fine enough resolution -- also quantized. The new quantum physics is almost certainly based on quantization of reality itself. Chaos theory is based on quantization. The Fibonacci series is part of this, somehow.

Questions, always more questions. Every answer leaves more questions to answer. Makes you believe in a Supreme being who is constantly juggling all those pieces of reality in a way that makes the world just the way it is. When you think about it, if the movie of reality got jumbled up, causality would be gone, and we would be helpless -- or more likely would never exist in the first place.

Apologies to all for the digression yet again. Even if there are markets open in the Pacific.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:17 - ID#386245)
G'day LGB
We get a bit snippity sometimes down under when we hear all the Americans complaining about their lack of freedoms. They have obviously never left their own back yard. I spent many years in the US. I have also lived many years in 'other' countries. Most Yanks have absolutely no idea how good they've got it!! Sure--I decry what is wrong with American society along with everyone else on this forum. I sure as hell know where I'd live if you gave me a choice of America/China/Indonesia/N.Korea/Yugoslavia etc. Spoiled brats often don't know they are spoiled.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:23 - ID#404410)
Louis Rukeyser (WSW) and gold comment.
Last Friday, on WSW Rukeyser said, "gold continued to suffer from the oldest known case of sleeping sickness."
As much as one would dislike the comment, it's true, so far. Can't fault a man for being right.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:23 - ID#18355)
thanks to (envy and rlubman) on poison pill
so in regards to finck, he is friendly to management so no perceived takeover threat so they may not stipulate a poison pill, in order to please him so he buys up more shares and helps the dilution problem of the prime takeover. w/out a pill, then the shareholders are potentially exposed to a hostile takeover if finck becomes unfriendly in the future.

is this acceptable thinking?

Bully Beef
(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:32 - ID#259282) are on an international forum.You say..."The truth is blacks account for a
huge percentage ( of crimes ) compared to whites." Perhaps in your social studies you could find out the crimes done to a third of the worlds population in China? or maybe Germans to Russian? ..but are they really white? How about Spanish to Native Americans? Blacks to Mulattos? I did say I was going to drop this didn't I? Did I say I thought there were young minds here? Did I explain my radical views on why there is so much crime in America? What is the truth? If you love your Mother and she asks you if you think she is fat and she is... do you say "Yes Mom"? That is the truth. Is that good truth or bad truth? Does truth equal "GOOD"? Or or a rapist holds you at gunpoint and asks where is your wife so he can rape her... do you say..."Shes in the closet."? That's the truth.
The truth is ...sit down and think about what you said and decide if it was good truth or bad truth. Think about the socio economic problems you might be encountering and then multiply it by a factor of 5.Why would anyone want to have a good six figure job and be treated with respect and dignity, when you can rob murder and sell drugs and your sister? Boy when white folk figure that one out blacks will be completely out of work. Now I'm using stereotypes. Go golf!

The Hatt
(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:35 - ID#294232)
Nevada, Nevada, Nevada!!!!
The next area play of significance will be Nevada! These Juniors are smart enough to explore on North American ground along a known gold belt!
White Knight Resources, Claimstaker Resources and Coral Gold..... Should one of these Companies hit economic grades look out the game will be on! For further info take a look at Murphys thoughts! I have my favorite and would suggest for those interested, do your DD, it may surprise you!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:38 - ID#317211)
@Erle and the L. Neil Smith "Police State"
Excellent post. I'm exhausted/pissed off again. Where's my lithium?!

Begs the question: Is FREEDOM possible in the Present/New World Order?
Seems to me the answer is NO.

Sincerely hope, like Mr. Smith, that family bunkers, Gold & guns are
not the only solution.

Tolerant1: Maybe a Mr. Smith/Joshua Nelson ( ? ) ticket. Or Jesse Ventura?
I would like it a lot.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:39 - ID#254321)
Apologies for barging in with Physics on remembrance of Memorial day

I will offer something to the many posts to those who have died to keep us free -- in so many countries over the world -- and at so many times in history.

Intelligent life is the most precious thing in the Universe -- life the pinnacle of inanimate matter -- and intelligent life the pinnacle of life. Our God-given role is to perpetuate and nurture intelligent life, in any way we can.

Those who have died to keep us free have made the ultimate sacrifice. It is up to us to make sure that intelligent life ( we humans in particular ) flourishes and evolves -- building on those who have come before us. We cannot evolve as a people unless we are free -- we cannot afford to let a few mold the future of the human race -- it should be for us all. And -- I think -- if we enourage the growth and development of as many people as possible -- as we do I think on this virtual site -- and many others on the net -- we will achieve the greatness of the human race that we are capable of.

Let freedom ring -- in as many countries in the world as possible -- the right for all to determine their futures with as little control as possible. Freedom has its shortcomings, as you must learn to benefit from it -- but it also is a precious thing -- like life -- and intelligent life as well.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:41 - ID#254321)
Sorry -- I meant Veterans day!
Sometimes I am as absent minded as Einstein. Wish I had his brilliance to go with that!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:42 - ID#317211)
I hear that "Hulk Hogan" wants to run for president. What the Hell?
Can we do worse than the poison now inhabiting OUR White House?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:46 - ID#219363)
It's saying that there already is a poison pill, in place since a decade ago, and that the board will have to waive it for Finck to be able to purchase the shares, which he's willing to do before the dilution ( motivation for them to agree to it ) . Goes on to cast him as an eccentric, probably to make it appear as if the company doesn't have a worry when they let him buy up the companies shares. Could be, might not be, if the guy has the kind of money it takes to buy up all those shares, and his family was in Merck, then he ain't stupid, eccentric maybe, but not stupid. One would assume that if the board lets him get past the pill there will be stipulations and "unfriendly in the future" won't matter a whole lot. Friendly means you've signed a contract to be friendly *grin*.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 21:49 - ID#45173)
You're preaching to the choir, Bug. Do I think that corporations will cease to be the engine of growth for the US? No. Do I think that investing in those corporations is the best way to make money? Yes. Do I think the business cycle has been eliminated and that economic booms go on forever? No. Do I want to own stocks while the economy contracts to reset for the next boom? Nooooooo.

Assuming you don't believe that booms last forever, the only thing we disagree on is whether the contraction has started yet or not. Stock market bears most of the time are leading indicators of recessions, they do not cause them or follow them.


(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:01 - ID#254321)
Hulk Hogan -- logging off! G'Nite all!
Tantalus: If we must only choose between the leaders our politicians offer to us, Hulk Hogan looks great!

On the other hand -- he might have to grow into his leadership role regarding foreign affairs.

But he could not do any worse than our current rudderless leader, who is much too likely to use excessive force to make up for inadequate leadership in foreign affairs. And Oxford educated too. What really irks me is the talent our current leader has -- almost all of it waisted.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:05 - ID#240288)
Baron August von Finck, Buyer of HM, Owner of Lowenbrau, Gold Bug, and All Around Good Guy

He is getting some press here today. Glad to see it. Did some reading about him on the Homestake message board at Yahoo!. Seems he is descended from a long family line who were bankers to the Hanseatic League. This family would be the Fuggers. These Fuggers were successful in their time, although the League eventually passed out of existence. The point is that down deep, von Finck is a smart Fugger.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:09 - ID#43460)
Bully Beef, are all the ad hominum insults a leading indicator?
Perhaps showing that gold bugs are so frustrated and pessemistic so the POG will go up? I haven't found an URL yet to back up this assertion, having gotten it from a textbook at the office, but the truth is that in both absolute and relative numbers US blacks have a higher crime rate than mainland Chinese. Just like north central Europeans have a higher suicide rate. No reason for you to assume that just because ssc nut is 'Merkan he/she is ideologically impure. ( 8-^ ) )
Here are some related links 4u:

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:12 - ID#317211)
@JTF agreed. Foreign policy tutors would be in order for Hulk,
but we have a surplus of them for hire.

Re WJC: Also agree that he has unbelievable talents, but they have been somehow perverted by the real powers that be? or sheer greed? lust?
for power.

He could have been a GREAT ONE, if his mind had not been turned.
In a prior life?

Tooooooo existential. No longer matters. He deserves execution.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:14 - ID#35757)
Isn't that what I said?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:15 - ID#31868)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I am still baffled...exactly what is Clintler's talent?
I keep hearing this over and over again...International policy, nope, economic development, nope, financial policy, nope, healthcare, nope, Commander in Chief, nope, Domestic policy, nope, honesty, nope, integrity, nope, USA Ambassador to the world, nope...plays saxophone, poorly, smoked pot, didnt inhale, and on and on and on

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:18 - ID#300202)
@Bully-Rockin' n Rollin'
& what about the British & Mik a Maq massacre to extinction- of that peaceful Beothuk tribe in Newfoundland. Met a guy back in 69 on Sparks St Mall who said Go Golf. Was dat u. well maybe it was Lotta Hitchmanova. Recently spoke to a Mik a Maq local historian who stated that they were not Beothuks but other Mik a Maqs. So.....that makes it o.k. Other than being screwed up Bully-u make a lotta sense. Back to dreamin' bout the Ottawa House while sippin on Wintergarten

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:22 - ID#45173)
Auric - Har!
Good one.

Still, one wonders whether the 69 year old billionaire made one really good forward-thinking bet pharms only to blow the family fortune decades later on a nostalgic whim, gold.

I don't know if she's still alive, but maybe he should consult his venerable Mother Fugger.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:34 - ID#45173)
Update: November Interest Rates Change Poll
If you haven't voted already, please vote on how you think Greenspan will effect rates in November.

73 votes
29% lower rates
68% unchanged
3% raise rates

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:37 - ID#31868)
Big Brother know...the one verybody says is talented...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:40 - ID#31868)
Pretty much says it all........yup...uh huh...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:45 - ID#373403)
Hulk Hogan for President
Don't laugh. With many of the younger generation feeling disenchanted from the two party system, elections these days are won or lost through the vote of 40% of the electorate. Charismatic third party candidates bring out voters that would not otherwise vote. Minnesota had the nations highest voting rate this past election at about 60%.

If Hulk Hogan can stir the passions of the sheeple, couch potatoes, disenfranchised, and misrepresented silent masses, there is every reason to believe that he could win. Don't think that Ventura doesn't cause alot of panic within the RepubliCrat back rooms. They have had a near monopoly for a long time by driving the citizens to feeling like their votes don't matter.

Voter apathy never hurt them before. A viable third party will kick their butts to really try to figure out what the voters want and not just the special interests.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:45 - ID#254321)
RJ and Cherokee were right -- attack on Iraq is imminent
All: I should be relaxing -- but thought you might like to see this.

What is interesting is that official spokesmen are saying that Iraq's ability to launch chemical and biological weapons production is 'limited'. And, according to the same article, after 71/2 years of cat and mouse with Saddam we don't know where to bomb the secret locations. Yet -- we are almost certain to attack anyway. For some reason France and Russia are now falling silent. Apparently due to deployment of surface-to-air missles.

Let us hope that saner heads come up with a better plan -- brinksmanship with a master -- Saddam himself.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:46 - ID#411259)
..... From the Platinum Guild today .....

"A major announcement out of Russia had only a glimmer of an effect on the platinum markets. According to Reuters, the Russian Finance Ministry said that it expected 1999 PGM exports out of that country to be around 20 tons for platinum ( 643,000 ounces ) and 100 tons ( 3.2 million ounces ) for palladium. Johnson Matthey estimated that in 1997, Russia may have exported 900,000 ounces of platinum."

OK -

We will see market manipulation by press release as the year winds down.

Where have we seen this before?


(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:51 - ID#286249)
Did you know
that there are four ( 4 ) currencies worth more in SDR terms than the Mighty USD. Can you name them? ( NO peeking )

A. 1 SDR = 1.00
1. 1.1897
2. 1.4307
3. 1.0565
4. 1.0118

U.S. Dollar--9.71735

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:52 - ID#35757)
Peace Dividend
is what prevented what is soon to happen from happening sooner. Ironically it has been spent on the same thing as the war dividend - hegemony.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:53 - ID#31868)
SDR_er, Namaste' a gulp and a puff...I'm good at sticking my foot in my mouth...
How's about, Swiss, German, Japan, British...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:53 - ID#286249)
US Dollar 0.71735
I do have trouble with the keyboard {:- ( (

Bully Beef
(Tue Nov 10 1998 22:59 - ID#259282)
Please Caper tell me I'm not doing a Farfel! Please! Puleese!
I'm not a Rummy am I . I'm not a Rummy. I'm not doing a Hepcat am I ? Please not. Oh no! Duddly Do-right has a warrant for my arrest. He's out there . I know it.Gosh he looks silly in that red outfit! Stay off the sea this week Caper. The wind she blowin laaad. Buy some gold and use er fer d' anchor thar in Lake Bras d'Or.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:04 - ID#190411)
I am not the complainer that you make me out to be.
I do have utmost respect for the founders of my country, and the men and women, throughout history, that made it possible. I want to hand something of value to the following generations.
If the politicians that swore to uphold the Constitution actually did, I wouldn't have ever come to this forum.
But then, I would have never run across the great company here.

My tardiness in reply is due to the ISP going down for a while.
We are having an airy evening. 72 MPH ( 115 KPH ) gusts on the shores of Lake Michigan. Golf is out of the question.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:08 - ID#284255)
New millennium bomb fears

Does anyone have an url to the Cap Gemini report?

Has this report been put on the web as yet?

Nocte Volens
(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:10 - ID#39285)
Clintler's Talent?
He lies better than anyone I've ever seen.

: )

Jim Bob
(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:13 - ID#249395)
I also am pretty unhappy with my "Kebble" stock. I calc. down 23% from Friday's close. Could someone post a recent quote on Randgold Resources and the market cap? RANYD may be a cheap way in on Durban Deep and RR, but I think I won't be throwing more money in that direction for a while.

And the first distribution of cash proceeds from the GLDFY spin-offs was pretty meager as I was credited with $ 4489 out of an expected $ 26000. Does anyone have the scoop on the timing involved here? I'm a little frustrated with South Africa at the moment. Not to mention the lack of responses from my E-Trade inquiries...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:13 - ID#45173)
More good stuff off of Prudent Bear
This is today's AOL message board post by LSkin4, a retired broker... His
insights and experiences are fascinating to me... enjoy... "Iceberg"


Every bull market throughout history has generated some form of open-ended
fantasy. The current Internet mania is the most recent example of such a fantasy.
As with ALL these historic bubbles, there is a fundamental story of "exciting
growth" that is founded in reality. However, that grain of reality rapidly evaporates
once the basic business models evolve into, simply,STOCKS. At some point,
the INVESTMENT concept deteriorates into a greater fool game of "musical

The Internet "play" is somewhat more pronounced than earlier fantasies. This time
around, the underlying support for the concept lies in the hands of record numbers
of untested public investors and young, inexperienced institutional investors,
charged with the responsibility of "performing" over the short term, with OPM
( Other Peoples Money ) . That "performance-driven" philosophy, typified by
"momentum" strategies ( the codification of the "Greater Fool" theory of investing ) ,
tends to exaggerate the movement in the stocks. Never before in history, have so
few shares been "chased" by so many bids.

The Radio mania of the 1920s is well documented. The "nifty-fifty" excess of the
early 1970s is equally well documented. However, there are a few additional
examples that are more typical of the current Internet mania. For example, in 1951,
oil was discovered in the Williston Basin in North Dakota. This set off a massive
scramble to identify ANY companies with potential acreage anywhere near the
area. The western railroads were immediately recognized and their stocks spiked
up. When Socony Vacuum Oil ( formerly Standard Oil of NY, later Mobile Oil ) hit
a small well in Saskatchewan in western Canada, not far from the Williston strike,
the "drill hole fever" was ignited. A small entity named Woodley Petroleum was
immediately singled out and the stock jumped from 25 to 80 within weeks, then
continued on to 125. A few years later, Woodley disappeared through mergers
with Pure Oil, then on into Union Oil. THE UNION OIL PREFERRED STOCK,

In 1968, when Atlantic Richfield and Exxon struck oil in Alaska, that strike set off
a phenomenal "drill hole fever" among Canadian oil and gas stocks. Companies
like Dome Petroleum, Bow Valley Industries, Apache, Consolidated Oil & Gas,
etc. all ramped up like skyrockets, based on dreams of productive acreage lying
underneath their headquarters buildings. The most absurd of all these "drill hole
plays" was a number called King Resources, which supposedly owned vast
mineral rights under the Canadian Arctic ice pack. Wall Street's "best and
brightest" ( best paid and most visible ) "analysts" hyped the stock from 18 to 306
with a few months. Every big institution simply HAD to have a "position" in order
to prove to their clients how smart they were. There was never any sort of real
operating picture for this "thing", only unexplored wilderness claims of unknown
but wildly fantasized dimensions. Analysts tooted about "acres per share" and
other such nonsense, in order to justify the ever increasing stock price. THE
simply too much fun. In 1971, King Resources filed for bankruptcy and
disappeared from the face of the earth.

In the 1967-68 bull market, dominated by young "gunslinger" money managers in
the early stages of "performance-driven" investment philosophies, the "players"
dived into a bold new investment concept - Mobile Homes. The leading companies
were Fleetwood, Skyline, Champion, Redman Industries, Guerdon, and
Winnebago. Within a few months, ( adjusted for numerous stock splts in all these
companies ) Fleetwood went from 2 to 37, Skyline from 1 to 42, Champion from 2
to 38, Redman from 2 to 57, Guerdon from 5 to 51, and Winnebago from 2 to 42.
At their peaks, the stocks sold for three digit multiples. The money crunch of
1969-70 returned all these stocks back to their starting points. They revived again
in 1972, then evaporated yet again in 1973-74. The "mania" was spectacular while
it lasted. The underlying concept was valid, but the business models evolved into
"Stocks" and at that point, they released their tethers to reality.

Finally, an excellent example of "Tech Fever" occurred in 1967 with a couple of
cuties named Recognition Equipment and Optical Scanning Corp. These two
companies were on the leading edge of the vast future of computer scanning. They
were open-ended concepts, based on a reality that was about twenty years ahead of
its time. These companies barely had revenues, much less any earnings. REC
actually split its stock 4 for 1 IN ORDER TO REDUCE ITS LOSS PER SHARE!
( This was really stated in the annual report ) . Without anything more than a great
concept, and the promise of "fringe of knowledge" technology, these companies
rapidly became "stocks", uncoupled from any sort of reality or business
fundamentals. They were the final act "darlings" of the 1968 market top. REC rose
from 8 to 98, then dropped to 2 by 1971. OSCN ran from 17 to 146, then dropped
to 5 by 1971. The concept was valid. But as they say in the funny papers, "'Tis
many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip"

The main point here is simple. The "Internuts" are not the first open-ended
fantasies to hit Wall Street. They won't be the last, either. However, in bull market
manias, the only things that matter are: What's the float? What's the sponsorship?
What's the "target"? and finally, How much can I buy before the bell rings? This
process serves as a substitute for rational analysis. Many serious investors are
baffled by the idea that some "analyst" puts a "target price" on a stock, then it goes
right there in fifteen minutes making everyone look like a genius. This is simple
crap shooting, elevated to a measure of "respectability" by the process. Back in the
1920's BEFORE the SEC theoretically "cleaned up" the entrenched corruption on
Wall Street, organized "pools" would take a stock or group of stocks "in hand" and
deliberately manipulate the price by "painting the tape" encouraging everyone to
come along for the ride. Tipsters would literally stand on street corners and pass
out "investment guidance" to passersby, suggesting which stocks would be "taken
in hand" by which pools at which time and hinting at price targets by specific
deadlines. This insanity marked the high water mark of the 1920's bubble.

Today, the "game" is identical. Only this time the tip sheets are orchestrated
through TV talking heads and "name" analysts working for wire houses. The
tipsters flourish on the Internet. The "pools" are performance-driven mutual funds,
hedge funds, and floor traders who swap stories over drinks each night. The "fish"
remain the same also. These are the trend chasers, the "momentum players", the
option traders, and the newly initiated on-line retail traders who are easily baited by
the "action". The main difference "this time" is the vast scope of the speculative
mania. With global communications tying together the far corners of the earth, the
potential pool of "players" has been rapidly expanded to include habitual Chinese
gamblers, Russian mafia hoods, Colombian cocaine barons, Japanese hedge
funds, and all sorts of exotic participants in the largest equity bubble the world has
ever seen. Also included are members of "The Great Unwashed" who bet on
dozens of official state-run lotteries, spend their weekly paychecks in assorted
casinos all over the country, and max out their credit cards to "place a bet" on a
couple of Yahoo call options. Therefore, the MAGNITUDE of the bubble makes
sense when viewed from such a perspective. Meanwhile, the US Central bank
appears to enjoy and support this insanity. I sure as hell hope they are as smart as
they think they are. Unfortunately, the lessons of history don't encourage much
hope that "they" will succeed in maintaining the bubble. They never have before.
And I know with total certainty that this will all end very badly.

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:17 - ID#189232)
JTF - "Thought you might like to see this"

See what? What was that a link to?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:18 - ID#190411)
Envy 21:46
Is Homestake saying that one is daft for wanting to invest in their company?
Disney thinks so, but where does that place the rest of the looney goldbugs who buy other goldshares?

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:21 - ID#300202)
Of all the non sensical posts, ur posts make da most sense ( hate "grin thing" but "grin thing". Live om Loch Bras D'or bye'. Hard to pass counterfeit $50 bills in Nfld when they've never seen a real one. Common Newfoundland expression "You can't arrest me-you didn't say "In the name of her majesty the queen" or u didn't have ur hat on.

Rusty the Rooster voting for da Friendly the Giant for Order of Canada.
Tommy Lee sprung by a horse & hung like a horse.
Gone to bed dreamin' of Gof.
Merkans-don't try to make sense of this post. Go Beothuks.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:24 - ID#257312)
SDRer 22:51

Found 3-- Hong Kong Dollar, British Pound, Irish Punt. Argentina's currency is close, but no cigar.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:30 - ID#254321)
Iraq attack imminent -- signing off for real this time - up since 3AM my time.
WhoCares: That was a post to ABC news -- and a story about our attacking Iraq. I just tried the link -- and it worked for me. Anyone else have trouble reaching the site? Here it is again!

Who Cares?
(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:36 - ID#189232)
JTF - Thanks

The link I got totally freaked me out. It goes to my company. It
must have pulled something out of an install I did. : )

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:39 - ID#219363)
John Disney is certainly more qualified to answer than I, as I have never owned a gold share, and I'm out of the equity markets completely right now. The "poison pill" doesn't have anything to do with the company being a good or bad investment, it's just to keep the company safe from takeover attempts.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:40 - ID#254321)
WJC's talent
tolerant1: Actually what I was thinking is that he has an excellent memory, is very facile, and picks up complex issues rapidly. I remember him talking about a fairly complex commodities issue of some kind, and doing a good job of it. What a waste of intellect.

Imagine Ronald Reagan doing that. He wouldn't even attempt such a discussion.

However -- someone else came up with the best answer for his real talent -- he lies better than anyone I know. Sorry -- I'm too pooped to complement the Kitcoite that said that.

The master of lies. Good thing he doesn't have more drive, or we would really be in trouble.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:42 - ID#300202)
CTV Y2K Specials all week-Tomorrow morn'-couple runnin' into the woods
Today's msg from an expert-"We don't know what will happen" " It could be a hurricane" Minimum-Buy a generator- ( he displayed a Honda ) Says soon u won't get em' ( go long Honda generators ) . Food for three weeks. Used the phrase"Cash is King" He looked Kitcoish. Half Kitco/Half Jew. More tomorr.
Giant- Walkin on Shoulders errrr' Shoulders walkin on Friendly Giants.

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:44 - ID#254321)
Clinton's talent
NocteVolens: I had to complement you in summing up his qualities better than I did -- the short answer -- and to the point. Somehow Tolerant1 missed that one -- he usually doesn't!

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:44 - ID#31868)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:51 - ID#31868)
Nocte Volens, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
JTF is exactly right...completely missed your post and observation...I am certain what you say is true, although I add he is the MOST dangerous liar I have seen in a long...long time...

(Tue Nov 10 1998 23:52 - ID#254321)
Logging off!
WhoCares: I think you just demonstrated how poorly humans do when cause and effect get scrambled. All I can say is that there must be a Supreme being out their keeping our reality working -- pixel by pixel. Most of the time, anyway!

I still remember Kitco near midnight when all of the posts would disappear into a white void -- because we advanced abruptly into the next day -- out of sync with most of us! That threw me for a loop until I realized what was happening. Really unnerving to see reality vanish, to be replace by nothingness. Good thing the computer terminal was still there.