Delphi
Put
This is why I just sold most of my gold equities yesterday -- I bet that Saddam would back down, and gold would drop with the rising dollar. AG doesn't care that much if the price of gold drops. Plenty of new opportunity coming up soon.
On the other hand, any international crisis not affecting the US dollar directly, like the 1993 fiasco in Europe where G Soros et al broke the bank of England, the US dollar went up ( for a time ) . Admittedly this period was complicated by the fact that AG had to inflate the dollar to pull us out of a recession, generally pushing the dollar down. However, if you plot the dollar vs the price of gold, you will see that during the European crisis both gold and dollar went up. I still remember the comments by some guru about how fast the US dollar went back down after the European crisis resolved.
Just think about what would happen if the German people decided they had to exit from the German mark because they were worried that their entry into the Euro would pull their currency down. Or -- Russina turmoil was spreading over their borders.
The consequence would be that other unaffected currencies such as the US dollar would go up. And -- gold up with it.
QED.
You may not believe it, you may fight it and loose in the end, or you may get ready and over the years benefit ( and in investing make profit ) from this trend. It just might be that the market picked up this trend right, though the market is moving faster than benefit being delivered. Over the time, it will get in synch ( and market will be right in predicting this move ) .
Yes, Internet does not "produce" any tangible assets, however it will reshape industries producing tangible assets, as demand for some will decrease ( or increase ) according to changes how live our lives and how we work.
I don't know what impact this will have on gold - I suspect none, as gold will probably retain its role in financial market the same way as it did through other changes in society and technology over the history. And I don't know how fast these changes will take place, however, the "change" cycles are getting shorter and shorter.
One last thought for you to digest. Despite all complains about Internet companies on this forum, without them:
- you would not have this site,
- we would not be able to search and dig in the latest information across the world,
- Mozel would not be able to warn the world about dangers to individual freedom in a modern society,
- technical analysts would not be able to access and analyze the trend down to the last ten minutes.
Sorry for the long rant - Miro
By the way, although I consider our foreign policy severely lacking in the Middle East, I do consider Saddam a very dangerous despot who has no respect for human life. If anyone doubts, please look up the number of his own relatives he has assassinated ( or son Odi assassinated ) when he thought his power was at risk. Keeping a lid on Saddam is a worthwhile task, IMHO -- but this expensive method of our administration losing interest in inspections and then grandstanding with aircraft carriers, etc. is wasteful risky and ineffective. Someday Saddam may throw all caution to the winds, and set off something really deadly -- as a 'martyr' to the Arab cause. I think he fancies himself as an Arab 'hero' -- does not matter what others think -- it does not make him any less dangerous.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19981114/V000790-111498-idx.html
Another thought: Paula Jones settled for $850,000 after only looking at WJC's personals. What about the other 100 or so ladies who were far more deeply involved ( humor intended ) . Lets see -- at $850,000 apiece ( minimum ) in a class-action lawsuit that would come to $850 million.
Where are the women's right organizations? What are they afraid of? WJC has done more to destroy the rights of the woman in the working place than any current leader I know. Who will follow the current civil rights legislation when the president can do whatever he wants?
Just had a thought -- the womans rights movement already got alot of favorable legislation. They will not lose any ground by enforcing the laws already on the books. Have they thought of the fact that going after the President would be a feather in their cap? Failing to do so is a terrible mistake because it gives that message that what the president does is ok -- so forget the law. Failure to go after WJC will destroy the women's rights movement -- eventually.
For someone to "shoot off" an idea, is valuable, and many lurkers and sometime posters contribute in this way. But for me to see the finer details of the man behind the post, is also valuable. It is only in such a context can one begin to appreciate a studio.r, t1, m*, cherokee, squirrel, gollum, or others as *men* out of which and through which the ideas come, and to have a context into which to evaluate the "one-liner" that such a poster may from time to time offer. This has value to me.
The food fights, the ad hominems I can do without, and I can ignore them as well.
I don't have much to add here, except from my limited Y2k vantage point, actually being one who has software to repair. I try to keep it short, and on weekends ( good idea I think ) . [p.s. 9,925 hours left]
To be a poster in the Kitco Kitchen ( I mean discussing gold, money economics, govermnent etc ) is not easy. I mean, to stand up for and be responsible for your thoughts and actions, and manner of speaking with the others assembled here is not for the faint of heart. Really. I have only to learn from those who post here. Thank you all for enriching my life. As to those who do not duck and stand firm, I am reminded of a passage from Emerson Essay "Oversoul"
"Souls such as these treat you as gods would; walk as gods in the earth, accepting without any admiration your wit, your bounty, your virtue even, -- say rather your act of duty, for your virtue they own as their proper blood, royal as themselves, and over-royal, and the father of the gods. But what rebuke their plain fraternal bearing casts on the mutual flattery with which authors solace each other and wound themselves! These flatter not. I do not wonder that these men go to see Cromwell, and Christina, and Charles the Second, and James the First, and the Grand Turk. For they are, in their own elevation, the fellows of kings, and must feel the servile tone of conversation in the world. They must always be a godsend to princes, for they confront them, a king to a king, without ducking or concession, and give a high nature the refreshment and satisfaction of resistance, of plain humanity, of even companionship, and of new ideas. They leave them wiser and superior men. Souls like these make us feel that sincerity is more excellent than flattery. Deal so plainly with man and woman, as to constrain the utmost sincerity, and destroy all hope of trifling with you. It is the highest compliment you can pay. Their "highest praising," said Milton, "is not flattery, and their plainest advice is a kind of praising."
And for M* again from Emerson:
"We know truth when we see it, let skeptic and scoffer say what they choose. Foolish people ask you, when you have spoken what they do not wish to hear, `How do you know it is truth, and not an error of your own?' We know truth when we see it, from opinion, as we know when we are awake that we are awake. It was a grand sentence of Emanuel Swedenborg, which would alone indicate the greatness of that man's perception, -- "It is no proof of a man's understanding to be able to confirm whatever he pleases; but to be able to discern that what is true is true, and that what is false is false, this is the mark and character of intelligence." In the book I read, the good thought returns to me, as every truth will, the image of the whole soul. To the bad thought which I find in it, the same soul becomes a discerning, separating sword, and lops it away. We are wiser than we know. If we will not interfere with our thought, but will act entirely, or see how the thing stands in God, we know the particular thing, and every thing, and every man."
I think we should all sit back and think for a minute about the tide of information we are being swept up in -- the real item of significance is not gold and fiat currency -- that is secondary to what is happening right now.
What is really significant is 'the awakening' of those who are ready -- the information revolution exemplified by the Internet. I have learned more about the forefront of Physics in the last year than in the last 10 years, and more about investing in the same period than in all the years I have worked hard at making money in the markets.
1 ) Zero-point or so-called 'free energy' -- if it is to free us from the shackles of many powerful selfish interest groups -- will do so ( eventually ) because of the internet. And our ticket to the Stars is in here somewhere too.
2 ) Y2K -- We can thank the Internet for making us aware of y2k, an event created by the information revolution -- a major bump in the road for those who are not information literate, and not adaptable.
3 ) Currency competition -- We can thank the Internet ( and the information revolution ) for equalizing all currencies -- it is more and more difficult for nations to keep their people in the dark on what is happening to them -- though much more needs to be done in this area.
4 ) An IBM XT for everyone? -- Just imagine how cheap an IBM XT is now -- and what would happen if virtually everyone had access to one -- and the environment to use it properly.
We are in the midst of one of the greatest revolutions of the human race -- and despite the problems we are having -- we should all be thankful of riding the vanguard into a whole new level of human productivity and awareness. I suspect that the information revolution is in its very early stages -- there is much more to come. Just imagine single molecule memory storage units. And three dimensional optical storage in crystals. And -- fuzzy logic allowing computers to think more like humans. And -- nanomachines to clean out our blood vessels or remove cancers -- from the inside of our bodies.
It is possible that one of us on this site will still be alive for the birth of the first 'self-aware' computer.
My guess it will happen one day -- by accident.
Point well taken -- the human race will not free itself from the shackles of despotism ( or similar name ) until each member thinks for him/herself and refuses to follow a Hitler or Stalin.
War and suppression of others will occur as long as there are souls who blindly follow their leaders without wondering what the consequences are.
One could argue that the despot is not the problem -- but the people who follow him -- because a despot is only one person who can do no harm if no one listens.
True freedom will not come to the human race until we realize that we are capable of doing virtually anything. But -- we need to wake up and learn.
The way I look at the problems of the world right now -- which is far from this ideal -- is that we are still being taught some very important and basic lessons from the Supreme Being. We are not yet capable as a race of rising up and removing our 'shackles' as Christ encouraged us to do. But I believe it will come.
And perhaps then we will have some extraterrestrial visitors.
First, the 'Chaos' concepts that came out of the Santa Fe Institute -- though I am not up on their current activities. Fascinating -- being applied to economics right now.
And Second, the 'fuzzy logic ' with ultraminiturization of memory units. Also, I think with wavelet/wavepacket analysis techniques, one might design computers that 'think' in images.
Admittedly there is a long way to go, but it was not so long ago that we were stepping on the moon. Think the computer on the Apollo had about 8k of memory. And before that, the Model T Ford. My dad still remembers having to drive backwards up the hill because the forward leather belts would slip. At that time, any discussion about computers would have been considered nonsense.
So -- my point is that one of us may be around when artificial intelligence really gets off the ground.
And -- yes -- I do fear the possibility that intelligent computers might consider us 'vermin' to be exterminated. Just imagine explaining to a computer that an illogical flesh and blood human is its father/mother.
We will have major ethical problems, even my oft-stated one -- that intelligent life is the most precious thing in the universe. That will include artificial life, too. The problems with the ethical aspects of clones would be less controversial than the ethics of artificial life. But we will have to address these matters.
Come to think of it -- could one reason that we do not have extraterrestrial visitors be because we do not have well-developed ethical concepts of non-human or non-biological intelligent life?
How would be treat an intelligent robot right now? I have vivid images of the frightened farmer with the shotgun.
Hope you have a nice time with your boat. I am stuck at work. Might get a chance with my little boat tomorrow after work.
Now my point is this -- it has been many years since the gold standard days. If the EURO is to be based more firmly on gold, someone must be working out the formulas for this -- fiat money for short term exchange fluctuations, gold for long term fluctuations. Surely we can get our hands on the outline of a prototype. Even if it is not the final version, we will have some idea of how the machinery of the EURO is set up. If the ECU waits too long, they will be unable to meet their deadlines -- some years in advance.
So my reasoning is that the math has been worked out already for several models, with contingency plans. Somehow we have to get past the smoke and mirrors.
I have a book about switching to the gold standard ( though not titled as such ) , by Krugman and ? sponsored by the major academic economics societies in the US and UK. 1995, I think. If you are interested, when I get home I can post excerpts.
I know Saddam had a boatload of lethal weapons during the Gulf war -- such as the 'cannon launcher' that could send projectiles into Israel or possibly into the US. The design is disturbingly simple, and relatively low-tech. So the threat to world peace was a major consideration -- then. I think now the threat is returning because of the lack of resolve of the relevant leaders to maintain the inspections. Saddam will never back down and stop trying to make weapons of mass destruction -- so our resolve must not waiver either.
And the UN was delivering food for oil -- so humanitarian activity is present. Please clarify your concern -- were the western powers not fast enough to deliver food against the obstacles that Saddam set up?
If your concern is that we Westerners did not do enough in Iraq, do you have any suggestions for dealing with Saddam, or North Korea, for that matter? The North Koreans are notorious for refusing food despite the deaths of millions. And now we find them launching multistage missles over Japan when they should be feeding their children. I don't think any offer of aid has been accepted there.
My philosophy is that avoidable death is unacceptable -- in any country -- but I do not know how to deal with such countries as Korea or Iraq.
Our foreign policy should never be to support totalitarian regimes because of some short term need -- like political expediency. We created Saddam the monster, and in that sense we are responsible for those he has killed. Our CIA is thoroughly compromised, and incapable of helping anti-Saddam groups overthrow him. All we have done so far is inadvertently help Saddam exterminate them. This is probably not a fault of our CIA personnel, but rather the politicians that orchestrate policy.
What worries me is that as we weaken our military, we will continue to try to be the World's policeman, but with less and less conventional, troop type resources. This will only encourage unethical and dangerous approaches toward foreign policy.
We should also be placing more emphasis on diplomacy, and get a more competent Secretary of defense -- more should be done to help the process of peace in the Middle East, rather than whirlwind peace marathons in Washington with little followup -- Jimmy Carter was much better at this -- although his skills as Commander in Chief were severely lacking. That fellow who handles the Serbian/Bosnian negotiotiations is superb. Why not promote him, and kick out the political types? WJC won't do it.
WJC thinks politics when he should be thinking world peace. His popularity at home comes first even in the second term. And -- that is when most presidents mature and become much more presidential. This Oxford graduate is a dud, even without XXXGate.
For example, I think any honest American who knows the facts should be appalled about the WACO situation. I think a great part of the problem there is the BATF is notorious for running amuck. Those people are poorly selected and inadequately trained -- something out of Hitler's or Mussolini's time. As far as I am concerned that organization should be disbanded completely. And -- the FBI should return to the traditional standards and guidelines for honesty that they once honored. I think our current FBI director is an improvement, by the way, and I hope the FBI lab is no longer corrupted. But -- I am not sure. I do know someone who is FBI -- my age -- and he is worth respecting. But -- I do not know the current generation of graduates.
All I can say about WACO and similar situations, is I hope that the cleansing action that is beginning to be focused on the White House also focuses on other parts of the US Government.
I sincerely hope it is not too late for our Democracy, and we have crossed our Rubicon. I will know if Kenneth Starr fails to follow through -- Nixon was impeached on far less.
Our government has gotten too big -- past critical mass and has a tendency to feed itself when ever it can -- with shortsighted policies of short term gain, often with long term loss.
The drug raids performed by various agencies are getting out of hand, because they get money from confiscated property. So -- now they find all sort of inappropriate excuses to make more money. Going after criminals only is not enough it seems.
I think part of the problem is inherent in Democracies -- something Winston Churcill once said. I wish we were better. Being better than totalitarian regimes is not good enough.
There is no one true religion by definition.
In that context, what I find interesting about this site is the news posts and comments about Iraq and Russia, and the insight into Russia, which the Fatima prophesies also claimed would be a serious threat to world peace. For some reason Saddam has ties there -- had them even with Yeltsin. Russia is likely to be a threat to us -- but not yet. But the warnings are there in what Maybury calls 'Chaostan'. Perhaps one should add 'Serbistan' as the possible site of WWIII -- which may be a smouldering war rather than an outright one -- for now anyway.
I think the greatest threat to world peace right now has to do with Saddam who has his eyes on Israel, and the US. The situation in Isael is deteriorating, in part ( I think ) because the Israelis put some of their defense plants in Palestine. Now -- big time trouble -- hard to move out.
I think Saddam does have weapons of mass destruction, and it does not surprise me that even his own foreign minister does not know this.
I think it is wild that Saddam noticed all of our planes in the air -- B52's etc, and decided to offer a peace plan today -- he will keep up this brinksmanship indefinitely until he wears us down, if we are not careful. I doubt that we are playing him -- he is playing us -- WJC is no match for this sly one. Eventually we will screw up during one of these canceled raids, and bomb something neutral/innocent by mistake. All Saddam has to do is keep the tension going -- for someone like him brinksmanship like this is nothing. He has seen death so many times he is not afraid of anything.
We need to play our hand very carefully with Saddam. We need the best military leaders we have, and the best diplomats.
The rich can run, but they cannot hide -- unless they go to another planet. So -- why not try to break this vicious cycle with the information revolution? I know this will not happen quickly unfortunately.
I have no illusions.
We may have several world wars first -- but if we expect to have a culture stable enough to venture into our galaxy, we will have to address our problems here on earth.
Problem is -- you cannot buy and hold, unless you are wealthy already, and just want to park your assets in precious metals. For those of us mere mortals who want the leverage of 'paper gold' we must be nimble, as the ups will be mixed with the downs -- due to the eventual collapse of China, Brazil, Mexico -- and possibly even Europe. The US will eventually succumb to the same deflationary plague that is sweeping over the earth -- but we may again be last -- as we were in 1929.
So gold is a good opportunity -- but you had better be skilled in relatively short term investing. If not -- the best thing is probably to slowly accumulate precious or a currency that is known to stand the test of time. Then after all the deflationary collapses are over, gold/gold equities will give us the bull ride of a lifetime.
But I agree with you that there always be a tiered type of human civilization -- survival of the 'fittest' is always a major factor. One of the cornerstones of a 'true' democracy. The trick is to minimize the tiers.
One thing that puzzles me about the internet is that there is virtually no cost for its use, and with a voice modem one can call anywhere in the world, effectively for the charge of a local call -- if the person at the other end has the same software and voice modem.
Unfortunately it does not take much to realize that fees for internet useage will go up when the 'poineer' novelty wears off -- did you know that the phone companies are petitioning to make internet useage 'long distance only'? Apparently the FCC is listening. We are not supposed to worry, as the fees are not supposed to go up, even if we are to consider all calls long distance. I'm hoping that technology improvements and cost reductions will counterbalance this trend.
EJ, when Gutenberg came up with printing press and printed the bible, there was just very small number of people in the world who could read, yet, this technology changed the world. At the beginning it was just a bible, however, it was the first time when people outside religion hierarchy got access to it and did not need priest interpretation of God. Does it sound a bit like internet and free access to information without somebody "translating it for you"?
But much better parallel to this technology, and its future possibilities, is car. Some eighty years ago we had first few cars on the "streets". Not too many people could buy it or knew how to drive it. It looked like a toy for a few privileged. Yet, there came Henry Ford, and he made car available to masses. Look what happened. What percentage of US industry feeds car industry? And don't think only about car manufacturers, think about the fact that suddenly people were able to move around, highways were built across the nation, this triggered service industry ( gas stations, motels and restaurants, leisure-associated stuff ) . On the other hand, trucking slowly but surely took over significant chunk of "delivery" from railroads. Cars were turned into farm machinery and productivity of US farmers reached the level never dreamed about. People moved from downtown to suburbs mostly because they were able to commute ( using their cars ) . This reshaped the way we live. There would not be any "supermarkets and shopping malls" if we did not have cars to get there and haul the stuff we bought back home ( not that I like it ) . Well I can continue on and on. It all started with some "silly toy", which was too expensive, nobody knew how to use it, and people were scared of it. Yet, it changed our lives, and it changed our industry and business.
It took some 70 years until car totally changed the landscape, today, it would take less than some 20 years and the same thing will happen, however, the change will be much deeper and significant.
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It usually comes down to me using my own gold and purchasing theirs. And yes, there is a little extra profit in that. I wonder if I did use their gold and just supplied my labor if I would really need to charge sales tax. I hate collecting it and paying an additional 2% on top of the sales tax to take credit cards. The tax always seems to come in $100 at a time and goes out $2,000. Ouch, each month.
I can only imagine the horrors which the IRS would inflict on merchants if we went to a consumption tax. Only 20 million businesses compared with 150 million taxpayers.