Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:01 - ID#373403)
When a customer comes in and wants to use their own gold for recasting, I refuse to mix it with my gold. Alot of people have a hard time looking at their pile of gold wondering why it is not enough to cast the piece they want. You need that 50% to 75% sprue and button to ensure a good casting, so that the thicker unused amount cools well after the thinner jewelry. The molten sprue feeds the casting.

It usually comes down to me using my own gold and purchasing theirs. And yes, there is a little extra profit in that. I wonder if I did use their gold and just supplied my labor if I would really need to charge sales tax. I hate collecting it and paying an additional 2% on top of the sales tax to take credit cards. The tax always seems to come in $100 at a time and goes out $2,000. Ouch, each month.

I can only imagine the horrors which the IRS would inflict on merchants if we went to a consumption tax. Only 20 million businesses compared with 150 million taxpayers.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:07 - ID#257312)

Thanks for the thoughts a few nights ago. What the heck is all this CME scandal business about? Is there anything to it, or am I missing the joke? Such a scenario is really not that far fetched. Comments anyone?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:13 - ID#153102)
@OJ Market May Get High @auric
A Florida Biochemist designs a citrus tree with THC.

A *very* interesting twist to the noses of the drug warriors. The
long-term effects could be interesting--in short, though the Justice
Dept. has "convinced" him to halt distribution of the seeds:

Several hundred packets containing 40 to 50 seeds each have
already been sent to those who've requested them, and Nanofsky
is not obliged to produce his mailing records. Under current
law, no crime has been committed and it is unlikely that charges
will be brought against the fruit's inventor.

Now it is federal authorities who must confront the nation's
unwieldy body of inconsistent drug laws. According to a source
at the Drug Enforcement Agency, it may be months if not years
before all the issues involved are sorted out, leaving a gaping
hole in U.S. drug policy in the meantime. At the heart of the
confusion is the fact that THC now naturally occurs in a new
species of citrus fruit.

The full article is at

@auric Skolnick has been broadcasting in Chicago for a long time without being shutdown by lawsuits.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:15 - ID#237299)
Agreed, I'll do my utmost to prevail upon them to use new, virgin metal since it produces such a sweet grained product- but if it is so sentimental that they insist- and they cannot produce the extra 15 grams for the button- then I'll mix with clean, new, solder-free scrap; the balance is going to the refinery anyway.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:17 - ID#316193)
More on the Possible Merger, Glamis Gold With Rayrock Resources

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:21 - ID#190411)
Consumption tax, @Missinglink
Is that a tax on the tuberculine aliens that are flooding into 'merka for the "free" health care, courtesy of the taxcows?
I always ask for a discount for cash, but am barred by "law" from getting it.
I am eternally grateful to the politicians that have "given" the same price for credit card purchasers as the solvent ones, who will give a merchant full value.

I cannot imagine what tedium you have to endure with the "I brought my own" crowd.
Tell them to take it to their car repair place; "I have some pipe left over from the construction of our house. Can you use it for my exhaust replacement on my car?"

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:23 - ID#237299)
So I suppose the DEA would consider concentrate "distributing"

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:26 - ID#24135)
Im not OFF .. Gold Dancer ..
for Gold Dancer and CC

Let me refer you to the May 1998 quarterly of the
Mining Journal .. Gold Service ( If you want to know
more about them do a search and go to their website )

I quote .. "through these mergers and acquisitions,
Harmony has increased its ore reserves from only
20 million oz two years ago to almost 70 million oz,
13.1 of which are in the proven and probable category."

Since that was published Harmony has acquired Evander
for the issuance of 7.25 million shares.
The Mining Journal journal says of Evander ...

Proved ... 7.4 mill oz
probable ..3.8 mill oz
Resources 31.1 mill oz**
** .. excludes 19.1 mill oz in project areas ..

cut off value for Evander is 1610 rand/oz cost.

You are right .. Im off .. I had not included the
Evander figures .. Harmony has more than 100 mill
oz of RESOURCES. . and about 24 mill P&P.

Harmony reports 68.4 mill shares out after Evander
purchase .. at say 5$ a share thats 5*68.4/100 =
$ 3.50 an oz for resources .. and about 14$/share
for proved and probable reserves.

On a similar basis ..
ABX is reported to have 50.3 million oz of P&P
Reserves and an addition 25 mill of resources
( no cut off value provided ) .. Barrick have
376 mill shares at say 22 $/share or 376*22/50
= 165$/OZ for reserves and 376*22/75 = $110/oz
for total resources ..

Someone thinks those reserves are LOW COST ..
an excellent supposition .. BUT then how come
.. perhaps you could provide a few NUMBERS to
help me understand.

And now .. lets see what the MJ says about
Deeps ..
Reserves .. 15.6 million tons at a cutoff of
1677 rands/oz ..
I cannot really come up with a good number
for resources .. maybe another 40 mill for
the Argonaut project under Joburg .. but
this will take BIG finance.

DD now has 56 million shares out end sept PLUS
another 3.7 million for the Argonaut study ( ?? ) ..
that makes almost 60 million shares. ..
so if we look at reserves only ... thats 60*3/15.6
= 11.5 $/oz .. which is cheap .. versus $14 for
Harmony and a LAUGHABLE $165 for ABX ..

However .. they are LIMITED in reources .. ie dont
hold ground with readily exploitable resources..
Plus they barely make any money with what they've
got .. eps = about 0.03$/share..

Gold Dancer/CC/Tolerant .. Ive provided my basis
for my actions and Ive told you what I do and why
I do it .. However this takes time .. Everyone now
knows WHY I prefer Harmony to Deeps or Barrick for
that matter .. Im going to stop spending so much
time doing this .. and from now on if somebody says
( ie golddancer ) .. "disney .. you are wrong" ...
Im just gonna say .. "go with God" ... I dont sell
Harmony .. and I couldnt give a rat's @ss what
anybody else DOES .. However .. I react sometimes
if I think other people may be misled ..

CC .. there are 3 things here .. proved reserves..
probable reserves .. and resources .. note deeps
also uses a 52000 rand cutoff versus 50000 for
Harmony .. the SA and Australian Code was used
for definition.. No cut off value was provided for ABX
resource figure and no reference was given for
Code ( this is consistant with US cowboy practice ) .

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:28 - ID#153102)
The root of the alliance in the article you posted regarding Russia and Serbia is the Pan-Slav Movement of the 19th Century, the century in which nation building got underway in central and Eastern Europe. Lenin and Stalin interrupted that with their International Socialist or Soviet Empire, but the proposal for a Pan-Slav Federation is another re-nationization indicator to me. The Pan Slav Movement has an excellent pedigree for nation building.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:30 - ID#153102)
@Obsidian @Dunno
Can I have the pulp ?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:31 - ID#31868)
Obsidian, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...actually if you have an amount of 100, 50
and 20 dollar bills you are trafficking in cocaine as trace amounts have been found on bills throughout the country...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:34 - ID#373403)
I did not know there was a law against giving cash discounts, as long as you deposit the cash and claim it as sales. The credit card companies make you sign their contract which bars you from putting a premium on credit card transactions.

Speaking of blood suckers, I just had a new credit card company offer me 1.65% ( now at 2% ) but I had to sign a contract that states that I give up all my rights to a jury trial in any dispute and all decisions on the part of Fifth Third are final and binding. The salesman said that if I conducted business in an honorable way that what diference would it make.

I kicked his butt out the door!

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:36 - ID#24135)
Steely Dan ..
for Studio.. R
If Sam can talk about visual C then
I can talk about Steely Dan ..
How can we get Fagen on Kitco ??

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:39 - ID#24135)
Genral Mo

.. I knew dat ..

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:39 - ID#190411)
I saw SDR'er'rs reference to John Disney's post last night. When I looked it up, I saw your immediate pickup on the import of that thought.
I cannot find a hole in his supposition.
With the stated position of France, Germany, and Italy on the further sales of gold, it truly makes sense.

mozel, There is a site that pays for the freely given commentary that you offer here. http://www.zolatimes
We all need more sharp-tongued essayists.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:42 - ID#237299)
Yes. I hear that it's a convenient feature for law enforcement who wish to search someone but lack any grounds to do so. They simply get the guy's wallet, let the dogs go crazy, and then they have probable cause to shake him upside down- looking for whatever it was they were after in the first place.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:46 - ID#340262)
Are Things Heating Up?

Is the pot beginning to percolate again? Problems in China, no faith in Japan's bail out , Russian Banks ready to fold, riots in Jakarta, American Stock Bubble, its making the 40 billion Brazil bail out look like pocket money Just watch what happens in our high volatility markets if the precious metals should suddenly be perceived as the last and only hope for investors to preserve there hard earned capital, the Internet stock frenzy might look like childs play when the gold rush begins, Is this why Treasury and Fed officials are talking optimistically while there facial expressions appear so grim - cjk -

(Sat Nov 14 1998 00:49 - ID#153102)
@ERLE @Disney
I envision the Euro at this point as a currency snake with a gold spinalcord.

Most telling is the ASEAN parallel posted earlier. Noticed the Aussies and Kiwis are in that sphere. Think they had better begin the study of Japanese.

I will check out zola. Thanks for the vote.

@Disney I figured dat.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 01:05 - ID#190411)
Are you from Arizona?
If so, you'd better watch your ass while traveling east.
My father died, and I had my sister-in-law bring two of his vehicles to Wisconsin.
The State Police of Kansas stopped them on their passage because of the Arizona plates.
The last incident took three and one-half hours at 12:45 pm local time.
The dog had no interest, other than the traces of horseshit on the vehicle, but, Mr. Highway Patrol had called in any local camera equipped newsies to film him in his great bust.
Due to lack of anything newsworthy, they left after the first half-hour.
I am certain that they were trying for any pretense to sieze the vehicle.
Clitton and many in congress, adore the forfeiture statutes. F* the constitution.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 01:21 - ID#153110)
Same thing happened to someone I know returning from Elk hunting in Colorado. The same usurpation which occured when John Marshall claimed a federal power to create a corporation, an attribute of the English Crown or Sovereign, led to the approval by the Supreme Court of these forfeiture statutes in our time.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 01:49 - ID#252150)
JTF@One of us has it basackwards.
You said:

If the EURO flops, the US dollar and gold go up ( in dollars ) -- just like 1993 when
the UK bailed out of the ECU.

me--I'm under the impression that if the USD strengthens, then the POG goes down.

Gold goes the opposite of the currency in power--Eliot Janeway.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 01:52 - ID#190411)
This is a gold site. I can go on /ad infinitum/ with this talk about usurpation of leviathan.
As you have pointed out in the past, I knew that there must be an objective standard in money.
I have done my part for the stockjobbers in goldshares, as I am over the prudent limit as defined by the more rabid buggers here.
I'm bored, I can't do anything about it, so, I'll sit back and see how this latest political move will turn out.
Morpheus beckons.
The best to you mozel, and, if I can ever be of help to you, just mention it.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 02:11 - ID#43460)
Obsidian re sprues
You and themissinglink are far more experianced than I about the sprues, so I'll not quibble. For statuettes in brass and bronze I usually work with ( and the sterling I sometimes cast ) in an 8 pound melt I try to limit to 3 to 4 pounds of cutoff. With a propane furnace one starts to get oxide, bubbles and flux inclusions if more than about half used metal is recycled. Plus silica, minus zinc, plus carbon, minus copper in pickling... I bet its easier with those nice induction furnaces jewelers use. ( 8-^] )

Goodnight all! These goldbug's hours are getting me down!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 02:30 - ID#411259)
..... Forget Jamaica .....

I'm going to Brazil
Gonna' get me
Some of that $42 BIL


John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 02:48 - ID#24135)
.. and another thing ..
One last comment ..
Another small difference between Harmony and DDeeps..
Harmony and Swanopoel are well liked locally .. Brett
Kebble less do .. When Harmony took Evander from
Goldfields .. they paid in new stock .. about 8.9 mill
shares plus 25 mill rands ( i think ) for 11.2 mill oz
of P&P plus 31.1 mill oz of resources .. ( 50,000 rand/kg
cutoff ) .. thats ( 8.9*5+ 4.3 ) /43 = $1.1 an oz for
resources ( plus what they paid to evander shareholders )
.. moreover Evander had producing capacity of 500,000
oz /year .. It was a good deal ..
Goldfields has worked off the harmony into the market.
Evander shareholders were issued stock on the basis
of 58 harmony shares per each 100 evander .. the total
effect of this plus purchases from anglos for free state
shafts has been to rapidly expand the number of harmony
shares to 68.3 million .. but their capacity and
resources have moved up sharply in tandem..
DDeeps cannot do this .. Im afraid .. the local
market is more circumspect when Brett comes looking
for dough .. Probably because buffels/and Blyvoor
shareholder were hurt on the deeps takeover and
his reputation suffered as a result of his curious
relationship with Mzi Khumalo during the JCI operation
and subsequent breakup..
I suspect that is the reason behind their US activity.
They will need dough for Argonaut for example ..
Blanchard seems to be their US promoter .. I believe
a whole lot of very fast talking salesmanship will
be coming your way .. caveat emptor .. and after
you shake hands .. count your fingers ..

(Sat Nov 14 1998 03:54 - ID#280214)
To TheMissingLink's 21:58 - Horsefeathers Wilbur!
"Really amazing that we just inflated our money supply 10% in the past 12 months and "prices" haven't gone up."
Yes some prices have not increased, but others have gone up 10% or more. I'd estimate that most of my merchandise has increased 10% or more in the last year. The feds books are cooked. ( but so what else is new )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 03:55 - ID#316193)
Beth Piskora, Her Best Ever in The NEW YORK POST

(Sat Nov 14 1998 03:59 - ID#280214)
There (Iraq), but for the Grace of God (and our Bill of Rights), go I (may go America
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. "

Allen ( USA ) blames the Iraqi people for aiding & abetting Saddam.
Others here feel they are powerless victims and pawns of Saddam.

This reminds me of how the people of East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and other nations were crushed by their government through the assistance of Russia. These people were defenseless in the face of armored military force.

To help the Iraqi people overthrow Saddam, many speak of arming the Iraqi people so they can do so. This was done in Afghanistan to help the Afghani people repulse an invasion and occupation. It has been done in many countries where the U.S. deemed the people were a force to gain or re-gain their democracy. But WITHIN the U.S. the government is seeking to strip the people of what minor weapons they have - let alone permit them to own, even as local militias, the weapons our government supplies to "freedom fighters" in oppressed nations.

"A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed."

In order to prevent a tyrant from subjugating his people and, against their will, using them as pawns, shields or cannon fodder to wage war on other peoples "Arms" in the above "right" must be interpreted to mean not only knives and handguns but also shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, and community "militias" with APCs, tanks, helicopter gunships, and anti-missile batteries.

This is not to say that any hot-headed bunch of "freemen" are permitted to use such weapons to terrorize and oppress their neighbors. The "well-regulated" must include restraint of renegade behavior. Individual renegade groups could be crushed - perhaps even with the help of neighboring "militia" forces. But these forces, under legitimate LOCAL control by "grassroots" populace would be a mighty deterrent to any governor or president who attempts to use military force against the people. For when such a tyrant or a foreign invader would attempt to crush many, many local guards that are so armed - their attempt would be ground to a halt. Any petty, budding tyrant would have to be wary of alienating the populace. Government "of the people, by the people, and for the people" must, by definition, also include effective defense "of the people, by the people, and for the people".

When a people are armed only with hunting rifles against modern military forces they are, unlike in our Revolutionary War, at a severe disadvantage. Without patrons supplying them with weapons to effectively fight modern miliary forces they may be doomed to subjugation, oppression and a fate similar to the Iraqi people. But with a people armed as I state above - a tyrant like Saddam or Stalin or Hitler would not likely come to power or retain it for long.

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 04:11 - ID#24135)
Japanese rundown ..
This is fax I received from lady who was full time
secretary and part time girl friend when I worked in
Tokyo .. Should have married her .. after I left Japan
her father died and left her couple million clams ..
plus she was very sexy .. fax provides insight into
Japanese situation ..

" Thank you for your last two faxes. Glad to know you
are Genki. Ive been so busy travelling, golf, tennis,
so on. Economy in Japan is disastrous. Nobody play
golf, buy things, travel, but many are fat.
Climate is very unusual and leaves dont tint
beautifully this autumn. We are rather quiet. Ive
been too quiet to write to you.
Im relieved that our company got the second best profit
in its history this year. Did I work a lot ? No, but
I made a lot of nasty speech. How can I do that?
because Im confident that I'm not stupid and that Im
cleverer than Mr Oda who graduated from Tokyo Univ,
which you told me when you and I were in ...... Sekiyu.
Do you remember ? True or not I appreciate you for
your precious comment.
Our company is lucky enough to get good sales man
who lost job because of the depression. Glad Aya
( her daughter ) got a job at C. Itoh. Job hunting is
very hard for young people too. She wishes if you
could write her senior report about McDonald business.
Aya and I are leaving for Italy soon. Ill write from
With love

So there you have it .. things are bad .. but people
are reacting and accomnodating. Jobs are there but you
must HUNT. Profits are good. Whats the problem ??
I wonder if I can schedule a trip to Italy .. I
need some time off.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 04:14 - ID#280214)
As to what ends - Liberty to make Gold & Silver Coin tender for payment
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed."

"1. No state shall enter into any treaty, alliance, or confederation; grant letters of marque and reprisal; coin money; emit bills of credit; make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts; pass any bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law impairing the obligation of contracts, or grant any title of nobility."

Since, in light of the following amendment,

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

states are not prohibited from making gold and silver coin, they are, in fact permitted to do so. Jesse Ventura - are you listening?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 04:41 - ID#284255)
Tantalus Rex
That's called the "Jo Anne effect"
And could be a real clanger.
I like to think of it as an early warning indicator.

I don't like millenniums...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 04:58 - ID#284255)
Cyber post from Aurator who has been saved from being 404

Just found it. Mooney, it was the last track on some editions only of
Arkansas Traveller by Michelle Shocked. I traced the words through a
Michelle Shocked fan page. Apparently, and many others will be
interested in this, the CD is actually a recording of Woody Guthrie
telling the story, it must be in the Library of Congress somewhere.
Crusty probably remember the name of the man who recorded Woody Guthrie
talking about his life and singing songs in the 1930's?

Woody's Rag

Written by Woody Guthrie

Well, of course, this actually happened. In the reconstruction days of the
South it got to be pretty serious when the carpet-baggers came down and
started running the whole show down here. And things were especially
rough up in the state of Arkansas when it was very seriously proposed to
change the name of the state. And this is taken down on the Legislative
rolls which can now be found, I think, under the date of July the
twenty-third, 1867. And this is what the hometown boy had to say. I
think first he, he pulled out his horse-pistol and laid it across his desk
so he wouldn't be interrupted.

Mr Speaker, god-damn your soul, for more than thirty
minutes I've been trying to get your attention but every time
I caught your eye you squirmed like a damn dog with a flea
in his as*s.

I guess you know who I am Sir. My name is Cassius M.
Johnson from Jackson County, Arkansas where a man can't
stick his as*s out the window and s*it without it getting
riddled with bullets. Why Sir, I was fourteen years old
before I had my first pair of pants and they was of buckskin.
But at the age of seventeen Mr Speaker, I had a jock on me
the size of a ????????? and it was the pride of Jackson
County. And you propose to change the name of Arkansas.
Never, by God Sir, never!

I'm out of order? How can I be out of order when I can p*ss
clear across the Mississippi River?

Where was Andrew Jackson when the battle of New Orleans
was fought? He was right thar Sir, up to his as*s in blood.
And you change the name of Arkansas? Never, when I can
defend her.

You may s*it on the grave of George Washington. P*ss on the
monument of Thomas Jefferson. You may desecrate the
sacred remains of the immortal General Robert E. Lee. You
may rape the Goddess of Liberty and wipe your as*s on the
Stars and Stripes. And your crime, your crime Sir will no
more compare to this hellish design than the glow of a
lighting bugs as*s to the glare of the noon days sun. And you
propose to change the name of Arkansas. Never, by God Sir,

You may compare the lily of the valley to the glorious
sunflower. Or the sun-kissed peaks of the highest mountains
to the smokin' tu*d of a dunghill. Or the classic strains of
Mozart to the fa*t of a Mexican burrow. You may compare the
puny p*nis of a Peruvian prince to the ponderous buttocks of
the Roman gladiator. But change the name of Arkansas?
Never, by God Sir, never!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 06:13 - ID#411440)
@ John Disney re Harmony: Thank you for your analysis of hgmcy.
It is a favorite of mine too. The annual report neglected to mention
some 75 million oz of reserves in the resource category. At $232 per
oz production costs it is a little over the cost criteria that I
usually apply to gold equity purchases, but this is falling, and
the gold in ground is SOOOOOOO cheap. At $5, the P/E is under 7X,
probably reflecting the distribution by Gold Fields. 75 million oz
available for working into the P&P category, I'll buy that.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 07:07 - ID#300202)
I'm technically challenged when it comes to generators. Tks for ur 22.38 of last night. I'm gobbling all the advice I can get. There is a silent panic in the purchase of generators in Eastern Canada-some precipitated by a three day power outage last Feb, minimal Y2K & methinks mostly that u have to buy what u cannot get. Clerks blame the shortage on U.S. storms. Less than 5% of Cdns believe that Y2K will cause any disruptions despite daily doses by mainstream media. We will see, but generators are going fast. I bought two Colemans ( one for a friend ) @ 800.00 Cdn per 5000 watt. Am equipped with a propane heater & two large rented tanks along with a fireplace complete with insert. Gone to ponder a food dehydrator. ( Peering outdoors with my army helmet on )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 07:08 - ID#370218)
SDRer....remember that Euromint URL...
Where they had the gold and silver coins priced in DM's. Well it no longer works. Have any idea if they are still on line?

Like the way gold has turned up in certain currencies and a particular currency unit. Yes?

How the heck does gold rise in SDR's...thought that was set as a certain amount of gold...never mind. I just answered my own question.

If you find the euromint url please post. TIA


(Sat Nov 14 1998 07:19 - ID#153102)
@ERLE @Gold Site
If not the Usurpations and Deceptions, what is there remaining of substance to discuss at a gold site ? Castings ? Jewelry ? Day trading ? They have their place, but are they substantial topics ? Gold is money or it is not worth digging for. The whole question of our time is shall the Leviathan devour all other sovereign lesser powers and banish gold and Law and honesty with them ? Gold is to be coined or it is derelict.

I know but one thing to do and that is to learn enough Law to be able to speak it to government in a court instead of asking government bureaucrats what it is as we are trained to do from infancy. For, if government is to be under Law, it cannot be government which tells what the Law is. If the people do not speak Law to government, who will ? And gold coin money and Law for Americans are inseparable. Government on this continent was not established to rob us. Now that it is plain government has conspired with the banks to do just that are we to acquiesce in it ? Can we not at least attempt redress of grievance ? The House will not repair itself. Our form of government requires that each man be a lawyer. When enough understand that, government will be reformed.

Thank you for your kind offer.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 07:32 - ID#300202)
Tks for ur 21.48. Will pass it on to "those in need".

(Sat Nov 14 1998 08:25 - ID#248234)
Disney@04:11 on Japanese Rundown
Mr Disney, be careful with rose tinted glasses of fond memories. The trip to Italy may be a wonderful idea, though.

Job offers to graduating college seniors are off some some 6-10%, to hs grads some 10-15%, to drop-outs 15%+. Unemployment is at record levels, as are bankruptcies. More layoffs loom. In my neighborhood, NTT is closing their Aoyama-dori branch office. ( Aoyama dori is among the status addresses, just up the street from C Itoh, in fact ) . NHK ( public tv ) has series running on restructuring. Also a fiction series, 'The Unnecessary Man.' There is a long way to go here before the turn can be called.

Hokkaido Takushoku bank ( Takkugin ) officially closed yesterday. The Yomiuri ( newspaper ) poll on the new voucher scheme suggests business finds it confused. The latest massive stimulus will be detailed next week. If it does not go well - expect another round of Nikkei slippage. Yes, society is rich here in central Tokyo. Rather as Rome must have been as the provinces fell to barbarians. Business gets done, but it is more of a struggle than I've ever seen it.

Outside of Tokyo the economy is proportionally more difficult.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 08:26 - ID#30126)
Regarding your Microsoft @Fri Nov 13 1998 23:20,

I bought and returned an H-P scanner that claimed to work with Windows NT 4.0 on the parallel port. It was printed all over the box and on all of the sales literature in the store. I was quite suspicious of the claim, as I know this 'system' cannot work for WinNT. I bought the scanner, installed it as per instructions, and the install program hung ( crashed ) on its opening screen! As it turns out, ( snicker, snicker ) , you need to use the SCSI version of the scanner with a SCSI card interface. Duh!

So as I returned the product to the store for a refund, ( they didn't carry the SCSI version of the scanner ) , the customer return person said to me, "Don't you have to download something off of the Web to make this work?" I explained why it wouldn't work and got my refund. Then the customer return person said to me, "You know, we've been getting a lot of this stuff back lately....", to which I said, "Maybe if they could find somebody to write the CORRECT drivers and package the correct hardware..." Another day in the world of high tech and computers, when it works it works great. When it doesn't, it's awful.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 08:42 - ID#350194)
Late wake-up and immediately find some fine words of wisdom here. mozel your last post was brilliant, precise and edifying. Not arguing with a word you said. However, in the world in which we now live, how many generations would need pass before "... each man be a lawyer."? Perhaps in the meanwhile like-minded citizens in each sovereign state should band together with the stated purpose of using their funds and efforts to challenge the wrongs of their governments in the courts, in order to set things right. In other words, instead of always being on the defense and being taken advantage of, citizens could take the initiative to set things right.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 08:47 - ID#28882)
@ panda re MS Grief

It's good to be in fine company here. Thought of an analogy re install woes -- It's like I bought a house and, when ringing the doorbell to get in, having the house blow up. I am going to go raise poop today.



(Sat Nov 14 1998 08:55 - ID#28882)
@Disney, Bart re off topic posts

FOA, sorry 'bout the MS posts - extreme frustration, had to vent. SOA, how's this for a new rule -- off topic posts allowed only on the wk-ends? During the week, it's PM related posts ONLY; but on the wk-ends, when the markets are closed and things slow down here anyway, we open it up a little, loosen our ties and talk about Saddam, guns, libertarian politics, Clinton, cigars and Steely Dan. Hmm?

cheers all,


(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:11 - ID#350194)
@Squirrel, Sharefin, aurator and Disney and ALL
Squirrel - You are doing an excellent job ( along with mozel ) of teaching us all about American law. ( Actually though - those posts show just how distorted the present situation is from that intended by their founding fathers. ) , Sharefin, aurator - That speech given in the Arkansa Legislature is priceless and the actual recording of Woody doing it is so full of fire and venom that you feel like you are right there back in time 130 years ago. Disney - Go for it! All - notice taht Disney's Japanese belle even makes a comment about the strange weather. Will 1999 be the year to make the grains soar along with our precious?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:15 - ID#119358)
my, your 7:19 is a nice, warm fire to scoot my mind up to. yayess.

oh hell, you're better than dick better handle the keynote. uhHuh.

May ALL GOds bless ALL KitcOites!!!!!!!! where'd I put fagen's #? let's

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:27 - ID#365216)
First gun manufacturers, then gun owners, then gold owners. . .
Chicago Sues Gun Makers, Dealers
12:09 a.m. Nov 13, 1998 Eastern

By Andrew Stern

CHICAGO ( Reuters ) - In the second lawsuit brought against the gun industry by
a major U.S. city, Chicago said Thursday it is suing firearms manufacturers and
sellers to recoup the cost of urban gun violence.

Chicago's $433 million suit, announced by Mayor Richard Daley and filed in
Cook County Circuit Court, alleges gun makers and dealers violated public
nuisance laws by knowingly designing, marketing and distributing firearms so they
fall into the hands of the city's criminals.

``The Second Amendment doesn't allow these types of weapons in our
communities,'' Daley said, referring to the constitutional clause that ensures the
right to bear arms.

Thousands of guns are confiscated in Chicago every year, yet gun sales are
prohibited within city limits and new gun licenses have not been offered since the
early 1980s, he said.

Chicago officials claimed gun manufacturers, distributors and retailers saturate
stores just outside the city with easily concealable guns designed for street
warfare and not sport, fully aware the weapons are illegally resold inside the city.

The city's suit, which it called a ``national test case,'' named 22 manufacturers,
four distributors and 12 stores as defendants.

The industry dismissed Chicago's suit and another filed earlier this month by New
Orleans as groundless.

``We are a player in a federally controlled distribution program'' where retailers
must record every sale and make sure buyers pass background checks, said
Robert Delfay, president of the Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturers
Institute in Newtown, Connecticut.

``Whose responsibility is that when someone purchases a firearm illegally in the
city? That can't go back to the manufacturer,'' Delfay said.

Daley said undercover Chicago police officers recently bought dozens of legal
guns at suburban stores even though they posed as gang members who talked
openly about settling scores in the city.

The New Orleans suit filed on Nov. 2 applied product liability law to the gun
industry, contending gun makers failed to apply available technology to make
guns safer, such as a fingerprint sensor that would prevent anyone but the
registered owner from firing the weapon.

Delfay argued that such technology does not exist yet, but that the industry would
back it if it was perfected.

As with lawsuits against the tobacco industry seeking compensation for illnesses
suffered by smokers, the New Orleans suit contends guns are defective products
and unreasonably dangerous to the public health.

Critics said the suit will misfire, contending that smoking a cigarette is always
unhealthy, while using a gun is not inherently dangerous and can even deter crime.

The Chicago suit seeks to recoup a broad array of costs including the estimated
expense of medical treatment for gunshot victims and outlays for investigating,
apprehending and prosecuting criminals with guns.

``Chicago's suit makes perfect sense,'' said Locke Bowman, legal director of the
MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Chicago.

``If you create a condition that endangers the health and safety of people in the
community... you infringe on people's use of public property,'' Bowman said.
``That has deep roots in American law.''

The MacArthur Justice Center has filed suit on behalf of the families of two young
Chicago gunshot victims against the manufacturers of the firearms used in the

Earlier this year, the nation's mayors asked Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell to
head a task force that is expected to result in a suit against the gun industry with
dozens of cities as plaintiffs.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication and
redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written
consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the
content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:30 - ID#31868)
mozel, Mooney, Namaste' gulps and puffs all around from the Island that is
lawyers are the problem not the the answer...not the infinite quagmire perpetrated upon We the all the codes INVENTED by the dirtbags, THEIR laws have become an abomination

The stretched, carefully and criminally defined laws ( by their definitions ) which supposedly stem from the Constitution and other works of our Founding Fathers have become a disease and nothing like the cure represented in the original documents.

Janet Reno ( and all governmental participants up to and including the President ) should have been dismissed immediately during Waco and tried for murder in the first degree to match the temperature of the flames, which burned people alive there.

Clintler wants every American to carry an ID card with medical information among other privacy invading files, he will not release HIS medical information. He is a hypocrite, a liar and a traitor who has abrogated every letter, intent and meaning of the oath he swore to which placed him in the office he now holds.

Lawyers are clearly not the answer as their intent is not for the common good but obviously to line their pockets with monies stolen from We the People

This is clearly seenlook at any branch of government, how many are lawyersyupuh huhnuff said

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:39 - ID#31868) problem, BOYCOTT Chicago, New Orleans and Philadelphia...yup...
choke them on their own stupidity...not one penny from me goes there...any flights I take, I will make sure they do not go through any of these cities...the best way to legally inflict pain...cut off the money...companies that are based there, I refuse to purchase their products...I would rather do without than support those bastards...if the innocents suffer I recommend they move to a city which is in AMERICA...

yup...uh huh...nuff said...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:39 - ID#119358)
@...and may the GOds bless......
Woody helluva' poooor okie. yup, lit phosphorous poured into an empty belly. kaboom. seen any fellers' like him lately?

without anger, there ain't no fight. and without a fight, there's too much no good. studio.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:43 - ID#412286)
The rich and powerful and corporations naturally hate lawyers as they create and enforce laws which prevent the predatory practices towards others that they would like to take. The threat of a big lawsuit strikes terror into the hearts of the money / greed worshippers. Thus, the behave more appropriately. It is law and lawyers which has made this country the envy of the earth. Go ask any Russian what its like to have no law or legal rights. An example of protecting the public from big money overreaching are consumer laws. Nuff said!!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:43 - ID#365216)
Infiltrate the System
In order to change the laws and the system of legislation and execution, we the people need to get enough like-minded and action oriented people
into the legal profession, government, COngress, etc. so that we can
legally change things from within. Let US SUE the cities for violating
our second amendment rights!

Let us press for the truth regarding Clinton. Forget Monica! How about
the deliberate and unprovoked attack on two foreign powers with loss of
life and more hatred toward America generated. THis was designed to make
us do just that ( forget Monica ) . Well we didn't, although we have seemed
to forget about the treason in Sudan, Afganistan, CHina, etc. Even my own Dad, whom I love, makes statements like: "He is immoral alright but
at least the economy is doing well." We need to wake up or soon we will find ourselves walking like lemmings right into a concentration camp run by the neo-Nazi New World Order with WJC goose-stepping with the best of them. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

That is all.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:44 - ID#245136)
Off topic stuff
Morning : If I can wade into the thinly threaded conversation regarding singers and great ol'drinking bud Walker had some great lines, his favorite toast was "heres to the duck who swam the lake and never lost a feather; so maybe this time next year well all be back together". Later he became somewhat more famous by putting to music such catchy lyrics as " up against the wall you redneckmother, mothers who have taught your sons so well etc,etc".......... ah Oklahoma, draft beer and a Gibsons.......... or what I can remember of it!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:51 - ID#412286)
making corporations responsible for the costs they inflict on society makes sense. They dont share their profits do they? THis is democracy in avtion ie the public secctor exercising control over private capital to protect the public. BRAVO!!!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:53 - ID#31868)
ROR, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...your thinking is wrong...if LAWYERS wanted
to change things for the common good they would vote unanimously for the following national referendum: IF YOU SUE AND LOSE YOU PAY...nuff said...

Your philisophical LUST for YOUR chosen method of governing, simply, put...clouds your eyes...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:56 - ID#147201)
John Disney re former friend
I have been there. You old reprobate, Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 09:58 - ID#31868)
ROR, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...are you specifically saying that your support
the lawsuits brought against the gun manufacturers...stick to this specific...this is THIS...not THAT...this is a yes or no question...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:03 - ID#119358)
yup, are we talkin' Gibsons stores? the smell of cotton candy in your dry goods store? or we talkin' dem Gibson geeters'?

yup, ol' ray wylie's still down there in Austin, I guess....just tearin' it up. lots of my friends here have played with him over the years..good boy, yes. I know that over his musical career he's asked the greatest musical question millions'o'times, yes...."WHERE THE HELLS MY FIFTY BUCKS, YOU SUMABITCH!" YEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:08 - ID#258195)
Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
09 Nov | 68.97 | 69.08 | 68.31 |
10 Nov | 69.30 | 69.34 | 69.07 |
11 Nov | 69.22 | 69.54 | 69.17 |
12 Nov | 70.56 | 70.60 | 69.81 |
13 Nov | 70.33 | 70.56 | 70.23 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
Last Saturday at 10:18 I said.........
'On Friday ( 6th Nov ) the Index regained the safety of the 68 - 70 trading range, and it did so in a way that gives me grounds for optimism. On Tuesday ( 3rd Nov ) the Dabchick Gold Index gapped down, and on Wednesday it gapped back up again, leaving behind it a clearcut one - day island.
Furthermore, after consolidating on Thursday ( 5th Nov ) , the Index gapped up once again into the 68 - 70 safety zone. This second gap up mirrors another gap down made on Monday, thus creating a Monday to Thursday 4-day island which contains within it the 1-day Tuesday island.
This pattern is beginning to look very similar to the previous major low of Aug-Sept 1992. On that occasion there was also a 1-day island at the bottom ( touching 66.7 and closing at 66.9 on 2nd Sept 1992 ) . That 1-day island in 1992 was contained within an 11-day island with the gaps at 68.2 . Those two islands were, in turn, contained within a 1-month island with the gaps at 69.5.
For the action of the last 4 weeks to become completely similar to 1992's bottom we now need to see this week's two islands contained within a 4 - to - 5 week island which would be made by a gap up at 70.4 Let's hope it happens next week.'

I'm glad to say that this weeks action has produced an uncannily accurate repeat of the Aug-Sep 1992 bottom. Thursday's gap up produced a 5-week island containing the 4-day island, which in turn contains last week's 1-day Tuesday island. Support at the 70.0 level was confirmed yesterday, and we should now see a steady rise to the 74.0 level ........where we can expect some lengthy consolidation.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:10 - ID#258195)
Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates and Weekly Summary
For Friday 13 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.61---------------4.30-------------3.90-----------------3.54
Gold Lease Rate---0.67---------------1.11-------------1.29-----------------1.55
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ------ ( - 0.04 ) ----------- ( - 0.05 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.20--------------3.45-------------2.50-----------------2.25
Silver Lease Rate---1.08--------------1.96--------------2.69-----------------2.84
( Change ) -------- ( - 0.10 ) -------- ( - 0.10 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ---------- ( + 0.05 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 02nd Nov to Friday 06th Nov
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.66,,,,,,,0.63,,,,,,,,0.62,,,,,,,,,,0.64,,,,,,,,0.67
3-Month - | 1.12,,,,,,,1.15,,,,,,,,1.14,,,,,,,,,,1.12,,,,,,,,1.11
6-Month - | 1.25,,,,,,,1.33,,,,,,,,1.32,,,,,,,,,,1.33,,,,,,,,1.29
12-Month-| 1.55,,,,,,,1.64,,,,,,,,1.57,,,,,,,,,,1.60,,,,,,,,1.55
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.18,,,,,,,1.18,,,,,,,,1.18,,,,,,,,,,1.18,,,,,,,,1.08
3-Month- | 2.06,,,,,,,2.16,,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,1.96
6-Month- | 2.71,,,,,,,2.74,,,,,,,,2.74,,,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.69
12-Month| 2.76,,,,,,,2.84,,,,,,,,2.89,,,,,,,,,,2.79,,,,,,,,2.84
No Comment

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:11 - ID#45173)
Buy yer gold now before it gets too expensive
Y2K problem throws a scare into Wall Street's biggest bull

John Ellis, Globe Columnist, 11/14/98 or a moment you are Ed Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities ( North America ) . You are paid vast sums of money to make your wealthy clients richer, and you are very good at your job. Indeed, you may be the best economic forecaster of this decade, so prescient is your analysis.

You have impeccable credentials. You completed your PhD dissertation under professor ( and Nobel laureate ) James Tobin at Yale University, taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business, served as an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington. In private life, you served as chief economist for C.J. Lawrence, Prudential Securities, and E.F. Hutton.

In the late 1980s, when everyone else was moaning and groaning about the coming recession and the size of the deficit, you looked around and saw a world transformed by the end of the Cold War, the technology revolution, and scientific discovery and announced that a ''new economy'' was being born. Fasten your seat belts, you told your colleagues and clients, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to take off like a rocket.

You even put a number on it - 5,000 Dow. Your colleagues said that might be a tad optimistic, which in their view was just two steps removed from out of your mind. But you had the courage of your convictions. You saw the big picture, and the big picture was almost limitless investment opportunity.

And you were right. The Dow did take off like a rocket. Soon enough ( 1993 ) it punched through the 5,000 figure with fuel to burn. What next? Ten thousand by 2000, you said, figuring, why not? Ten thousand Dow seemed mighty optimistic, maybe only one step removed from lunacy, but you were unfazed. The productivity revolution, the technology revolution, the genomics revolution, the political landscape, demographic trends, 401 ( k ) plans, and mutual fund mania all pointed due north.

Sure enough, the Dow ramped just as you said it would. By that time, the press was eating out of your hand. ABC News called you the best economic forecaster in the country, Barron's sang your praises at every turn. And all the while, the Dow just kept moving up.

There was only one problem. You were not only smart, you were intellectually curious. Smart was fine; eggheads were in on Wall Street. But intellectual curiosity was, let's be honest about it, problematic. It took you to unexpected places.

But you're Ed Yardeni, and you don't care, so you begin to consider the implications of the Year 2000 ( Y2K ) computer problem. The problem is simple. In much of the embedded memory of the global economy are computer chips and computer programs that think the year 2000 is really the year 1900. A weird glitch, to say the least, but an interesting glitch, given that the new economy runs on computers.

You begin to really study this problem, and the more you look into it, the more freaked out you become. Before long, you transform your website ( ) into a Y2K Red Alert bulletin board. There, you post articles and provide links on how the Y2K computer problem will affect every aspect of economic, military, and social life in the developed and underdeveloped world. You realize that air travel, electric utilities, telephone service, Medicare, just-in-time production capabilities, and ''mission critical'' national security operations might be rendered dysfunctional by the glitch. And that's just for starters. It makes your head spin because you know that nothing much is really being done about it.

But you're Ed Yardeni and so you become, as New York Magazine's Jim Suroweicki called you, a Y2K Jeremiah. This summer, you go before some big shot group and announce that the chances of a Y2K-induced global recession ( on the order of the post-OPEC 1973-74 global recession ) is 70 percent. In your heart of hearts you probably think it's more like 99 percent. Because the more you learn about this Y2K computer problem, the more immense it becomes.

And then, this week, you walk into your office and scan the morning papers. There on the front page of Tuesday's Financial Times is the following headline: ''Too late to defuse millennium bomb, software group warns.'' The story is based on a comprehensive report by a leading European software consulting firm on the Y2K problem, and its conclusions are grim.

You're Ed Yardeni, Wall Street's greatest bull through much of the 1990s and, because of the Y2K computer glitch, you have become the King of the Bears. With each passing day, you grow more concerned and wonder why more is not being done. You're Ed Yardeni. You know you're right and you hope you're wrong.

John Ellis is a Globe columnist.

This story ran on page A19 of the Boston Globe on 11/14/98.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:13 - ID#258195)
Weekly Summary....sorry wrong dates
The weekly summary of lease rates is for 09 - 13 November. Sorry.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:18 - ID#389171)
John Dysney ABX and P&P Reserves
Thank you for your cooperation.
There is no coincidence between Total Production Cost ( TPC ) and Market Valuation of Gold P&P Reserves ( MVGR ) .
Take for example ABX:
First quarter 98 TPC = 253/oz
MVGR=165/oz ( from your perfect computation,say recent price=22 ) .
With even hedging program at 400$ for around 3 years of production,MVGR at 165/oz doesn t help a lot for 98Net profit ( ReservesOre has not yet been extracted ) ..
Please note that cash flow per share ( or per ounce ) is as important as net profit:if you take out Depreciation&Amortization and Reclamation ( =70 for first quarter 98 ) from TPC you get the Cash Cost ( 253-70=183$/oz ) closer to your 165$/oz.

If we pay ABX at 22,reserves at 165$/oz and TPC=253$/oz;thats show a favourable premium ( =253-165 ) .The contrary would have been dangerous.

Finally to make a summary of the situation may be we humbly just have to remember that :
gold easy to find has already been found and gold easy to extract has already been extracted
Guess what remains?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:20 - ID#119358)
@T#1.........gotta'go, but before I do...............
your 9:30, saaaweeeeeeet! like an acre of homegrOwn...sweet 'taters. yes. bye.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:22 - ID#190411)
I asked, yesterday, if anyone knows if gold purchases in Japan are taxed. Do you know? If so, at what rate?
In the US, there is no tax on the purchase, if one orders it from a no-tax state.
Of course, I am talking about point-of-sale tax; My real POG is in excess of 750.00/OZ, when you deduct all of the rest of the taxes on your gross income.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:28 - ID#147201)
mozel yout 7:19
You have iy right naturally. The basic problem is that new found gold is new found wealth. The gov't knows this and in their attempt to contraol all wealth they have to throw a net around prospectors. I just hope that they are not yet completely effective in their throw.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:35 - ID#119358)
and salud!!!! to jerry jeff tooooooooo. uhHuH. yeeeehaaaaaaaaaaa!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:36 - ID#190411)
Savings rate
Does the USGommint consider accumulation of gold, in their bs statistics, to be included in their savings rate?
After all, it is Constitutionally defined as money.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:37 - ID#290172)
Tyoung-The mint is still online, but not the coins
But the gold & silver coins are gonnnnnnne. Sell out.
Gold SDR [0.888671], 35 of which equal one ounce XAUPerhaps "not done" but for my model I simply use it as one would any other currency; that is translate other currencies into it, etc. Verrrry interesting results. Off for coffee.

Erle, re: Japan and is gold taxed at p.o.s.--if memory serves, yes, I believe it is. bbl

(Sat Nov 14 1998 10:50 - ID#119358)
@wert.O.....i really gotta'go now.........
but, thought you'd get a kick outta' this.........

the best of the best?.......auratOr?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:05 - ID#147201)
SDRer re your 10:37
I emailed them with specific questions. If I get a straight answer, I will post, Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:10 - ID#266105)
Iraq just kiddding

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:24 - ID#210282)
Gold vs dollar and Janeway
James: You are right that if all other things are unaltered, gold tends to go up then the dollar goes down, and vice versa - assuming that no one is manipulating the price of gold. This is what Janeway is talking about, I suspect. Never read anything about Janeway.

This is why I just sold most of my gold equities yesterday -- I bet that Saddam would back down, and gold would drop with the rising dollar. AG doesn't care that much if the price of gold drops. Plenty of new opportunity coming up soon.

On the other hand, any international crisis not affecting the US dollar directly, like the 1993 fiasco in Europe where G Soros et al broke the bank of England, the US dollar went up ( for a time ) . Admittedly this period was complicated by the fact that AG had to inflate the dollar to pull us out of a recession, generally pushing the dollar down. However, if you plot the dollar vs the price of gold, you will see that during the European crisis both gold and dollar went up. I still remember the comments by some guru about how fast the US dollar went back down after the European crisis resolved.

Just think about what would happen if the German people decided they had to exit from the German mark because they were worried that their entry into the Euro would pull their currency down. Or -- Russina turmoil was spreading over their borders.

The consequence would be that other unaffected currencies such as the US dollar would go up. And -- gold up with it.


John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:25 - ID#24135)
.. the unanswered question ..
for Goldie88
I humbly enjoyed and failed to understand your
recent brilliant analysis due to my poor sloppy brain.
I am certain that whatever it was you were saying
was completely correct and incisive .. It was the
work of a god like creature .. I have flown too close
to such brilliance I fear and I may have damaged
myself ( I hope not ) . nonetheless it has been to my
everlasting joy and breadth of spirit to have come
into contact with this magical work and these
tantalizing half revelations ..
... regarding your final QUESTION "guess what's left"..
I would humbly like to know if I guess the answer
correctly .. do I receive some kind of reward ??

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:26 - ID#45173)
2BR02B? Yuk, yuk
That Saddam is such a card. There goes the US spending another $1B to mobilize again for no reason. So who looks weaker? Saddam for caving in or the US for falling for Saddam's game again?

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:31 - ID#24135)
That Saddam .. what a guy ..
.. sailing and flying back and forth
to the Middle East must be great for
the Oil demand ..
.. heeheeheeheehee .. how can you be
mad at a guy with a sense of humour
like that ... it was all a practical
joke ..

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:36 - ID#266105)

EJ- dunno who looks weaker. Dead is kinda wan lookin'.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:39 - ID#347457)
Internet stocks hype? Yes! However 
Just catching up on posts from the last night and there was a bunch of posting about "irrational exuberance" about Internet related issues. No doubt about it, however  folks, make no mistake about it - Internet is the future, it will shape our lives the way we did not see in a long time. In my professional circles I am known to hold a "grudge" with use and misuse of technology, however, I have to admit that Internet is a different beast. Due to my profession, I get involved in technology forecasts, sociological and economic impact. There is a consensus building that current trend may represent 500 years cycle, the last even being Gutenberg invention of printing press. You can not look at things like this just from narrow point of view. Events like this start chain reactions and reshaping of way we do business, how we live our lives, how we access and process the information, and how we interact as society of people across the world.

You may not believe it, you may fight it and loose in the end, or you may get ready and over the years benefit ( and in investing make profit ) from this trend. It just might be that the market picked up this trend right, though the market is moving faster than benefit being delivered. Over the time, it will get in synch ( and market will be right in predicting this move ) .

Yes, Internet does not "produce" any tangible assets, however it will reshape industries producing tangible assets, as demand for some will decrease ( or increase ) according to changes how live our lives and how we work.

I don't know what impact this will have on gold - I suspect none, as gold will probably retain its role in financial market the same way as it did through other changes in society and technology over the history. And I don't know how fast these changes will take place, however, the "change" cycles are getting shorter and shorter.

One last thought for you to digest. Despite all complains about Internet companies on this forum, without them:

- you would not have this site,

- we would not be able to search and dig in the latest information across the world,

- Mozel would not be able to warn the world about dangers to individual freedom in a modern society,

- technical analysts would not be able to access and analyze the trend down to the last ten minutes.

Sorry for the long rant - Miro

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:42 - ID#210282)
Saddam is too clever to stand up against us when we are ready.
2BRO2B: Hope I got your name right. Saddam will not strike on cue -- as some might like. He will continue to play cat and mouse with us -- and wear us down. What worries me is that he is up to something -- and I don't have any idea what. Wonder how much money he made in the markets this time.

By the way, although I consider our foreign policy severely lacking in the Middle East, I do consider Saddam a very dangerous despot who has no respect for human life. If anyone doubts, please look up the number of his own relatives he has assassinated ( or son Odi assassinated ) when he thought his power was at risk. Keeping a lid on Saddam is a worthwhile task, IMHO -- but this expensive method of our administration losing interest in inspections and then grandstanding with aircraft carriers, etc. is wasteful risky and ineffective. Someday Saddam may throw all caution to the winds, and set off something really deadly -- as a 'martyr' to the Arab cause. I think he fancies himself as an Arab 'hero' -- does not matter what others think -- it does not make him any less dangerous.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:42 - ID#147201)
My best guess is- Dow down, gold up and the Euro is a blivit

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:43 - ID#147201)
Have you been able to locate a good source for this measure? Thanx, Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:45 - ID#266105)
TV nation, TV world

Miro - the web thingy, definitely a biggie. The tv as
electronic hearth didn't move to the center of american life
without great consequence. What the web consequences, who knows.
I sometimes wonder about the short length of posts that seem
appropriate somehow and the average 7-9 second camera angle
and attention span.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:47 - ID#210282)
Gold as savings?
ERLE: Perhaps that is why the US governmment like to know how much gold you buy. Catch 22.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:47 - ID#266105)

chas -- TED thing, no. Barron's publishes it weekly. Found
it on the web once but didn't bookmark it. I figure should
something happen to make it take off like a scalded cat you
wouldn't need to refer to the TED spread to know about it.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 11:57 - ID#219363)
Just wanted to say that I don't think anyone doubts the things you're saying, that the Internet is important, or that it'll be here for the next gillion years, etc, etc. The problem with the Internet stocks is that they aren't! The Internet is here, has been here, and Yahoo, Amazon, Ebay didn't have a thing to do with it. Yahoo would be the closest, but in the end, it's just a search engine, in the middle of many search engines. People bidding these companies up don't understand the Internet, the paradigm, and they're going to get burned. The only thing amazing about is that it's first, but unlike business of the past, that doesn't matter. It's not like being first at building a cellular phone network, that matters, because it makes it difficult for other people to get into the market, and you retain market share. But on the Internet, anybody can throw up a new web site, and being first doesn't matter one little bit. Places like Ebay are taking advantage of a curve, a very small curve, between the introduction of an idea to the Internet ( pick your product, books, auctions, search engines ) with quick deployment by a staff of engineers and programmers and the huge wall that they're going to hit when deployment to the masses of the same technology crushes their little packet businesses. In other words, save the nifty marketing plan and quick IPO of Amazon, they don't do ANYTHING that any old Joe on the Internet can't do with a some programmers and a OC-20 line, and in a few short years when the electronic commerce software and servers catch up to the ideas, they won't be doing anything that a housewife with an OC-20 line can't do. You'd almost think that you could decide on a type of product, say, cars and trucks, build up a site that people will use, do an IPO for the exchange, and be rich! But it's not going to last, it can't last. Amazon already has competition, and I'm not talking about those goofy companies you hear about on CNBC that put "Internet" into their literature to push their market prices up, I'm talking about REAL companies on the Internet who are going to blow them away, they are just one of many. Yahoo is even worse, they weren't even first to what they do, there were already search engines out there before Yahoo, and there are search engines out there now that are better than Yahoo. It's just a matter of time. If you want to invest in the Internet, buy QWEST shares, or one of the companies out there building next generation wireless technology.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:01 - ID#347457)
@2BR02B? on TV nation, TV world - it's much more!
2BR02B?, it's much more than TV. TV is "passive and filtered" medium.

Internet related technologies are "active". For the first time technologies wrapped around the internet make "telecommuting" feasible in some professions, and I suspect it will spread and reshape other industries the same way. Think about it, two income family - two cars, if at least one of them "telecommute" or have a home based business, one car may be enough. Think about chain reaction and impact on all industries involved in manufacturing and operating the car. I don't want to start another trend not gold related ;- )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:06 - ID#147201)
Thanx a lot. I got the picture. I guess we will all know. Cheers

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:07 - ID#347457)
Agreed, I just don't want people to get into thinking that it's just a noise and any internet related company is just a star which will fade in a short time. Some of them will be able to adapt and stay.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:10 - ID#263254)
Galaxy 5 comment found
on the following site:

A person from the company that owns the Galaxy 5 ( PanAmSat ) posted an email to in response to this thread, and she said:
"I work in Corporate Communications here at PanAmSat, the owner of the Galaxy V satellite as well as 17 others, and I have to say that this message gave me a good laugh. Thanks to the few others in this thread who responded with some semblance of sanity.

To launch a communications satellite, a company must invest between $200 and $250 million--we wouldn't run a test on anything we have up there with the sure knowledge, as suggested in the message above, of losing the satellite. You're welcome to visit the company web site at for information regarding what we really ARE doing to prepare for Y2K as well as the Leonids."

To answer question #3, there is certainly a chance of the shower taking out a satellite or two.


(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:11 - ID#210282)
Latest from Kenneth Starr -- Hillary at greatest risk
All: The Webster Hubbel indictments suggest strongly that K Starr may be closing in on Hillary. No wonder she supports WJC despite his rather staggering indiscriminate nature with the opposite sex. She would divorce him in a minute if she thought that he could no longer help her fortunes.

Another thought: Paula Jones settled for $850,000 after only looking at WJC's personals. What about the other 100 or so ladies who were far more deeply involved ( humor intended ) . Lets see -- at $850,000 apiece ( minimum ) in a class-action lawsuit that would come to $850 million.

Where are the women's right organizations? What are they afraid of? WJC has done more to destroy the rights of the woman in the working place than any current leader I know. Who will follow the current civil rights legislation when the president can do whatever he wants?

Just had a thought -- the womans rights movement already got alot of favorable legislation. They will not lose any ground by enforcing the laws already on the books. Have they thought of the fact that going after the President would be a feather in their cap? Failing to do so is a terrible mistake because it gives that message that what the president does is ok -- so forget the law. Failure to go after WJC will destroy the women's rights movement -- eventually.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:15 - ID#266105)

Miro- ever read this--

It was just short time ago, seemingly the age of the dinosaurs,
get an interesting idea from a Barron's or something, trot down
to the library for a peek at the Valueline, maybe get some addresses
or a phone number for the latest quarterly or annual, maybe sort
through the periodical racks for some recent articles after looking
them up in the periodical index-- a process stretching from hours
to days to weeks. Now, click-click...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:18 - ID#347457)
@JTF on WJC and $850,000 settlement
It makes you thinking how "shrewd businessmen" WJC is. How many first class call girls he could have for that money? No lawsuits  no impeachment ... and much better "service" ;- ) Hmm .. is that a guy who should be making decision about world #1 economy?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:24 - ID#334219)
I like your case on Harmony if gold stays above current prices or move higher as the truth is that, based on reserves and price/cash flow per share, Harmony is very much undervalued vs Barrick.

However gold is not yet in a bull in and could well get to new lows and stay there for a few years. We don't know. Let say we get to $200 and stay there for two years.. Harmony will be in big trouble...while Barrick will continue to have huge cash flows.

The truth is:

Annual Cash flows:

Barrick: $520 millions ( 1999: $700M++ )
Harmony: $ 65 millions

Net Cash on hand:

Barrick: $400 millions
Harmony: $ 17 millions

From these numbers, it is obvious that Barrick deserves a much higher market cap than matter what inferred reserves Harmony has in its back yard.

In favor of Barrick, I should add that starting next month, their Pierina gold mine will be operating. This will add 750,000 ounces a year AT A TOTAL CASH COSTS of US$50/ounce and will, alone, generate in excess of 3 TIMES HARMONY's CASH FLOW on annual basis...yes more than $190M. This new mine, alone is worth more than Harmony.

Barrick market caps is 24 times higher than Harmony...this is obviously too much. It should be probably between 5 and 10 times higher.

Until the bull market is confirmed and prices move and stay above $300. Harmony will remain undervalued. Its price will remain well below where it should be. The reason is simple...they are not in top financial shape and are still at risk despite strong improvments in the past 3 years.

I'll be a buyer of Harmony..big timme..but only when the new bull is confirmed.


(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:30 - ID#347457)
@2BR02B? - be bold go a bit farther ;-)
Yeah, that's what I am talking about, however, go a bit farther. So you want to start your small business? Takes a lot of time to find suppliers, delivery chains, find the best sources, etc. You better have a support staff, etc. doing this for you. Well, it's much easier with Internet, isn't it? You can do it with minimum support. Now how the industries will change with trend toward home based businesses? How will it change service sector? etc...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:46 - ID#343259)
Off Topic Police
I agree with Mozel. I would vote that the processes that drive gold, are fair game here. Also the well formed, well reasoned opinions of those that advance those ideas are welcome. I don't personally have any problem with utilizing this domain to understand the rationale and ground-of-being of any of the regular posters.

For someone to "shoot off" an idea, is valuable, and many lurkers and sometime posters contribute in this way. But for me to see the finer details of the man behind the post, is also valuable. It is only in such a context can one begin to appreciate a studio.r, t1, m*, cherokee, squirrel, gollum, or others as *men* out of which and through which the ideas come, and to have a context into which to evaluate the "one-liner" that such a poster may from time to time offer. This has value to me.

The food fights, the ad hominems I can do without, and I can ignore them as well.

I don't have much to add here, except from my limited Y2k vantage point, actually being one who has software to repair. I try to keep it short, and on weekends ( good idea I think ) . [p.s. 9,925 hours left]

To be a poster in the Kitco Kitchen ( I mean discussing gold, money economics, govermnent etc ) is not easy. I mean, to stand up for and be responsible for your thoughts and actions, and manner of speaking with the others assembled here is not for the faint of heart. Really. I have only to learn from those who post here. Thank you all for enriching my life. As to those who do not duck and stand firm, I am reminded of a passage from Emerson Essay "Oversoul"

"Souls such as these treat you as gods would; walk as gods in the earth, accepting without any admiration your wit, your bounty, your virtue even, -- say rather your act of duty, for your virtue they own as their proper blood, royal as themselves, and over-royal, and the father of the gods. But what rebuke their plain fraternal bearing casts on the mutual flattery with which authors solace each other and wound themselves! These flatter not. I do not wonder that these men go to see Cromwell, and Christina, and Charles the Second, and James the First, and the Grand Turk. For they are, in their own elevation, the fellows of kings, and must feel the servile tone of conversation in the world. They must always be a godsend to princes, for they confront them, a king to a king, without ducking or concession, and give a high nature the refreshment and satisfaction of resistance, of plain humanity, of even companionship, and of new ideas. They leave them wiser and superior men. Souls like these make us feel that sincerity is more excellent than flattery. Deal so plainly with man and woman, as to constrain the utmost sincerity, and destroy all hope of trifling with you. It is the highest compliment you can pay. Their "highest praising," said Milton, "is not flattery, and their plainest advice is a kind of praising."

And for M* again from Emerson:

"We know truth when we see it, let skeptic and scoffer say what they choose. Foolish people ask you, when you have spoken what they do not wish to hear, `How do you know it is truth, and not an error of your own?' We know truth when we see it, from opinion, as we know when we are awake that we are awake. It was a grand sentence of Emanuel Swedenborg, which would alone indicate the greatness of that man's perception, -- "It is no proof of a man's understanding to be able to confirm whatever he pleases; but to be able to discern that what is true is true, and that what is false is false, this is the mark and character of intelligence." In the book I read, the good thought returns to me, as every truth will, the image of the whole soul. To the bad thought which I find in it, the same soul becomes a discerning, separating sword, and lops it away. We are wiser than we know. If we will not interfere with our thought, but will act entirely, or see how the thing stands in God, we know the particular thing, and every thing, and every man."

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:55 - ID#219363)
But to take that even farther, past all the speculation put forth by the electronic philosopher-gods of the 90's, it is just a computer network, and it's only going to change things so much. Imagine the changes that came about when the voice network was set up, you could suddenly talk to anyone in the world! You could build over-seas markets from your chair at home! Sell cars to anyone in the world! Heck, we may never have to go to work again, we can hold meetings over the telephone! I can set up dealers and supply chains without ever having to get on the train and I won't have to travel across the country! Well, it didn't work out quite that well, I still have to get on a jet and fly to get anything done, and I still don't have complete global market penetration, despite the fact that I can pick up the phone and talk to someone in China. In the end, it is just a computer network, a voice network with data, pictures and sound, and it'll have it's limits just like everything else. There was a speculative boom when suddenly you could go across the country by train, and the first people to ship goods by train made a killing, but eventually, everyone figured out they could ship goods by train, and it became a non-issue, it became something you had to do, not something that gave you a competitive edge. And so it is with selling books over the Internet ( ala Amazon ) , they're the first to do it, but in the end, when it's all said and done, you'll have to do it to stay in the book selling business. I've got a phone at home and a fax machine, a car that can get me to the airport, which has a jet that can get me anywhere, and still I have to go to the office. A computer network that lets me do video conferencing, send word files, etc, etc, still isn't going to change that, I still have to go to the office, and trust me, I've been on the Internet since there was an Internet, and I need it to do what I have to do, but it has limits. The Internet isn't going to help a truck driver deliver goods, he's still gotta get in the truck, and a construction worker still has to drive the tractor, and the UPS guy still has to come up the stairs to deliver my packages. The only difference between now and then is that I have to have a web site to remain competitive ( in addition to all my other propoganda distribution networks ) , and I have to check email in addition to my voice mail, why ? Because I'm in the high-tech field and everyone else has the same resources I do.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 12:55 - ID#210282)
Information Revolution -- right now, just like Industrial Revolution
2BRO2B: Thanks for reposting the Vannevar Bush article. He was quite a fellow - describing a desktop computer in July 1945. I would have liked to meet him -- and not just because of MJ-12.

I think we should all sit back and think for a minute about the tide of information we are being swept up in -- the real item of significance is not gold and fiat currency -- that is secondary to what is happening right now.

What is really significant is 'the awakening' of those who are ready -- the information revolution exemplified by the Internet. I have learned more about the forefront of Physics in the last year than in the last 10 years, and more about investing in the same period than in all the years I have worked hard at making money in the markets.

1 ) Zero-point or so-called 'free energy' -- if it is to free us from the shackles of many powerful selfish interest groups -- will do so ( eventually ) because of the internet. And our ticket to the Stars is in here somewhere too.

2 ) Y2K -- We can thank the Internet for making us aware of y2k, an event created by the information revolution -- a major bump in the road for those who are not information literate, and not adaptable.

3 ) Currency competition -- We can thank the Internet ( and the information revolution ) for equalizing all currencies -- it is more and more difficult for nations to keep their people in the dark on what is happening to them -- though much more needs to be done in this area.

4 ) An IBM XT for everyone? -- Just imagine how cheap an IBM XT is now -- and what would happen if virtually everyone had access to one -- and the environment to use it properly.

We are in the midst of one of the greatest revolutions of the human race -- and despite the problems we are having -- we should all be thankful of riding the vanguard into a whole new level of human productivity and awareness. I suspect that the information revolution is in its very early stages -- there is much more to come. Just imagine single molecule memory storage units. And three dimensional optical storage in crystals. And -- fuzzy logic allowing computers to think more like humans. And -- nanomachines to clean out our blood vessels or remove cancers -- from the inside of our bodies.

It is possible that one of us on this site will still be alive for the birth of the first 'self-aware' computer.

My guess it will happen one day -- by accident.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:06 - ID#413156)
Oasis in the sun
Saddam Hussein is insane for not making peace with U.S. . Lets look at the possible benefits of an American Iraq understanding .The export of the finest heroin and hallucinogenic drugs by the American military .The export of a million lawyers to protect Iraq citizens. The building of mob controlled casinos with the best hookers from New York to L.A.Creating a two party political system and calling it a democracy. Yes this can be the next oasis in the sun the new Babylon for the free world. The Israelis can trade their gas masks for casino chips and the Arabs can gamble all their profits from BIG OIL as the fascist American states still ponder the assassinations of the brothers Kennedy between football games and bud beer.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:14 - ID#210282)
Logging off -- work beckons -- even on Saturday!
CompGeek: Thanks for quoting Emerson.

Point well taken -- the human race will not free itself from the shackles of despotism ( or similar name ) until each member thinks for him/herself and refuses to follow a Hitler or Stalin.

War and suppression of others will occur as long as there are souls who blindly follow their leaders without wondering what the consequences are.

One could argue that the despot is not the problem -- but the people who follow him -- because a despot is only one person who can do no harm if no one listens.

True freedom will not come to the human race until we realize that we are capable of doing virtually anything. But -- we need to wake up and learn.

The way I look at the problems of the world right now -- which is far from this ideal -- is that we are still being taught some very important and basic lessons from the Supreme Being. We are not yet capable as a race of rising up and removing our 'shackles' as Christ encouraged us to do. But I believe it will come.

And perhaps then we will have some extraterrestrial visitors.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:15 - ID#373403)
I don't know about all of you but I feel my purchasing power slipping away and am having to mark my prices upwards. I just received a bill from my accountant for an hours worth of work ( I was there while he reviewed my papers and wrote the letter on my behalf ) for $300. His bill to do my corporate yearly accounting has risen from $1,400 four years ago to $1,800 this year.

The official inflation figures have been so manipulated and cleansed that they no longer measure what they appear to communicate. As inflation expectations are so important to actual inflation, the Feds mandate to keep prices stable probably allows them to lie to us outright.

People need to start thinking for themselves and stop relying on the government to do it for them.

Year M3 ( $bil ) M3 ( $bil 12 month increase )
1971.12 776.0
1972.12 886.0 $110.0
1973.12 985.0 $ 99.0
1974.12 1070.0 $ 85.0
1975.12 1172.0 $102.0
1976.12 1312.0 $140.0
1977.12 1472.5 $160.5
1978.12 1646.8 $174.3
1979.12 1806.6 $159.8
1980.12 1992.2 $185.6
1981.12 2240.9 $248.7
1982.12 2442.3 $201.4
1983.12 2684.9 $242.6
1984.12 2979.8 $294.9
1985.12 3198.4 $218.6
1986.12 3486.4 $288.0
1987.12 3672.7 $186.3
1988.12 3913.1 $240.4
1989.12 4066.3 $153.2
1990.12 4126.8 $ 60.5
1991.12 4182.1 $ 55.3
1992.12 4193.5 $ 11.4
1993.12 4258.9 $ 65.4
1994.12 4333.6 $ 74.7
1995.12 4595.6 $ 262.0
1996.12 4935.5 $ 339.9
1997.12 5383.7 $ 448.2

Year M3 ( $bil ) M3 ( $bil )
( 12month moving average )
1998.01 5432.1 $471.0
1998.02 5472.2 $474.4
1998.03 5536.3 $504.3
1998.04 5583.3 $508.0
1998.05 5608.2 $521.7
1998.06 5627.1 $517.9
1998.07 5644.7 $498.2
1998.08 5709.2 $508.8
1998.09 5761.1 $536.3
1998.10 5833.1 $565.3

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:17 - ID#258142)

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:21 - ID#290172)
Excerpt from a thoroughly remarkable speech by Andrew Sheng, HKMA

19. Let me now move to the second part of my lecture, the role of money in a global world. As an amateur economic historian, I have often been fascinated by the parallels between the current debate over the role of global money and the nineteenth century debate between the Bullionist versus credit schools on the role of domestic bank money. 8 It took nearly four centuries of bank failures, before the first central bank emerged in Holland to act as the lender of last resort. It took another series of panics and failures, until Thornton ( 1802 ) and others made the conceptual breakthrough to put 'money' and 'deposits' on essentially the same footing. It was as late as 1873, before the role of the central bank in resolving bank runs was elegantly expounded by Walter Bagehot in Lombard Street , a principle that remains valid today
Andrew Sheng, Executive Director HKMA
April 1998

Bagehot said:
"Now, the only source from which large sums of cash can be withdrawn in countries where banking is at all developed, is a `bank reserve.' In England especially, except a few sums of no very considerable amount held by bullion dealers in the course of their business, there are no sums worth mentioning in cash out of the banks; an ordinary person could hardly pay a serious sum without going to some bank, even if he spent a month in trying. All persons who wish to pay a large sum in cash trench of necessity on the banking reserve. But then what is `cash?' Within a country the action of a Government can settle the quantity, and therefore the value, of its currency; but outside its own country, no Government can do so. Bullion is the cash' of international trade; paper currencies are of no use there, and coins pass only as they contain more or less bullion.

When then the legal tender of a country is purely metallic, all that is necessary is that banks should keep a sufficient store of that `legal tender.' But when the `legal tender' is partly metal and partly paper, it is necessary that the paper `legal tender'the bank noteshould be convertible into bullion."
Walter Bagehot, "Lombard Street"

Happy HAPPY {:- ) )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:42 - ID#341234)
Cheap Gold
With all the talk about price manipulation, we sometimes forget something. It is getting cheaper and cheaper to mine gold. All the short squezes in the world will not help if gold is being mined for $50 per ounce. THAT'S $50!!!


INTERVIEW-Peru Pierina mine at full tilt in month
By Robert S. Elliott
Tuesday November 10, 7:58 pm Eastern Time

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 10 ( Reuters ) - Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp's ( Toronto:ABX.TO - news ) $260 million Pierina gold project in central Peru is on-line and should be at full output in a month, a top mining official said late Monday.

"The mine has started operations and should be at full production in a month," Juan Carlos Barcellos Milla, Peru's deputy minister of mines, told Reuters at the Americas Mining Ministries Conference in Buenos Aires.

The open pit, which sits 13,000 feet ( 4,000 meters ) above sea level in the Andes mountains north of capital city Lima, is tagged to produce 750,000 ounces of gold per year at an operating cost of $50 per ounce. Reserves are pegged at 7.2 million ounces of gold, with geological resources of 900,000 ounces.

( snip )

"Miners are accustomed to price fluctuations--we hike production to reduce fixed costs, and we delay jobs we can delay, like exploration and a little stripping," Milla added.

( snip )

"But exploration can't be stopped for years, only for cycles," Milla added. "I think there's a lot of gold left to discover in Peru."

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:42 - ID#290172)
Andrew Sheng's lecture is well worth reading, several times. It is remarkably lucid and forthright. Paralleled with Duisenberg's Dublin speech ( November 10 ) one suspects we may SAFELY conclude, "It's GOLD!"

21. The textbook definition of money is money is:
a unit of account,
a medium of exchange, and
a store of value.
To which one would add:-
a property right with externalities
a derivative [of the real economy]

Money as a store of value
22. The roles of money as a unit of account and medium of exchange are well understood, but I would like to comment on the role of money as a store of value.

One was also struck by Dr. Sheng's elephant parable:

45. In Asia, we have a saying: "when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled". One wit added: "the grass gets trampled even when elephants make love". I would add that when grass shrivels, even elephants starve. Clearly, we live in an interdependent world.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:48 - ID#347457)
@Envy & JTF
Envy, no doubt, there are some industries which will require "to be there", yes construction, manufacturing, transportation, farming, etc. However, even these will be impacted by realignment of how work is done. E.g., USPS and UPS will experience a decrease of "information traffic", written word, "junk mail", etc., construction may go away from building "downtown offices", and extended shopping malls, to reshaping local communities and trend may go back to smaller communities where you live and work ( unlike "suburbs" today where you go to sleep and spend the weekend ) . Yes, at this time you still go to your office, but maybe you won't 5 years from now, or you may go just once a week. I see an increasing trend to work flex hours, work at home, less travel to remote location ( if exchange of info can be done electronically ) , etc.

It'll come, not 100%, but a significant shift, and along with that the industry structure will change according to changing demands.

JTF, while AI did not yet deliver on promises, we have a long way to go, however, the day will come when machines will have "mind of their own". Well, what if they start "thinking" differently from us and turn from obedient servant to something that demands its freedom? :-o

Got to go, my boat in a marina is lonely ;- )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:52 - ID#153110)
@Corporations @Mooney @Taking The Initiative
ROR is a false prophet. Corporations must be abolished. They cannot be governed. They, indeed, govern us. A Municipality is a corporation itself. Justice, in the words of Plato, is the interest of the stronger. There can be nothing approaching justice in this country when the counterparty you face in a courtroom is an artificial person favored by the legislators whose campaign bills they pay, an anrtificial person with a bankroll of billions, and represented by a cabal, the lawyers for hire, on the bench and before the bench.

@Mooney There are, as I write, freemen and women doing the research to untangle the web of deceit woven into the legal system and atop the Law today. They are doing it for liberty's sake. For themselves and their posterity. I know a man in his sixties named Hyde who is without a college education and who has taught himself enough law to fend the parasites off himself and his neighbors. Because he wanted to.

@Taking The Initiative All one must do to take the initiative with this overweening government is mutter the word "NO" to the least of them and they will be down on you like wolves on a fold. That's personal knowledge speaking. That is what happens if you are lucky. If you are unlucky, they spring on you unawares on the road, at the front door, or in the mails for you know not what. As we boy scouts say, Be Prepared. Fraud vitiates contracts, even judgements - The Amisted

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:57 - ID#228128)
Silver Coin Value
We are having a Sheriff's office auction in my locality and they list 10 Carson City Uncirculated Silver Dollars as an item up for auction. Can anyone here give me an ideal of the value of these coins? I'll check back later.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:58 - ID#365216)
cheap gold?
Freddy, what are you smoking, my good man?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:58 - ID#147201)
SDRer re sheng
Are you really serious??

(Sat Nov 14 1998 13:59 - ID#43460)
Squirrel, pardon ROR, nuts
Excuse me but you do not understand the word "regulated" as per 18th century context. In the 1700's regulation was understood to be the process by which instruments were modulated so that they would give accurate timing and movement. A well regulated mechanism, whether it was a ship's chronograph, a town clock, a grist mill or a printing press was one which was tuned so it moved in a "regular" ie temprally well predictable and coordinated manner. ( But the term construction denotes physical organization as opposed to temporal organization denoted by regulation. )

A "well regulated" militia was one which was well organized to the point where its msmbers could stay together at correct interval and in step, march properly to the musical instruments, stand, load, step forwrd, kneel, fire all a clock. Regulation was for purpose of contol of the temporal coordination by which the militia could send block fire. ( As there are no screws, escapements, counterweights, dampers, rpm meters, et cetera on a militia its regulation was traditionally done by means of the Sunday afternoon "drill" whereby the citizens practiced military maneuvers after church and before a big public dinner with everyone invited. )

The modern concept of "regulation" ( as well as the 98% of the US code not related to specific duties of the government to its people ) would have been dismissed by the 18th century thinker as Tory at the very least and a direct violation of civil rights in all probabilility. They would have said "well constructed" militia if they'd had any druthers about its physical membership makup and they would have said well "controlled" if they had meant for it to be run by the government.

ROR, nuts! The former Soviet Union has lots of laws, with a civil structure still based on Marxist dielectic. Why don't you go there and try to "regulate" ( 18th or 20th century denotation, your choice ) them? Your talent is wasted on us savages here. ( %-^] )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:07 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re inflation
If what you say is true, then perhaps a wise choice might be for a person to stop saving and concentrate on running his debts up to their limit at an artificially low interest rate?

On the face of it theres something not right. IMHO this is what it is, there is a deflation of all the goods which can be imported from third world countries ( the first thing which comes to mind is Pakistani silver goods ) but an inflation of price of personal services and goods which must be made in the developed world.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:15 - ID#237299)
To Charles from N.C. (anyone know e-mail error codes?)
Received your e-mail, tried to respond and the reply from server was "can't send message to ***, ;server gives this reason error 553: ***@***.net....Unbalanced"

I started laughing as it sounds like the server is making a personal character judgement. ;- )

Anybody know what this error message is all about?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:26 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Anybody who thinks that just being out of 'debt' will save their butt is nutts! It MIGHT slow them down for a 'micro-second' or two. Shoot, given the Executive Orders that can be implemented on a moments notice, NOTHING is safe from their grasping claws!!!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:29 - ID#286249)
Chas--I don't uinderstand the question. Serious about what exactly?
That Sheng's speech is remarkably lucid? Seems wonderfully straightforward to moi; that in no way is unequivocal agreement with everything Dr. Sheng says, but rather an appreciation that he states positions clearly.

Serious re: he is talking about a universal global currency of gold bullion? One concludes the probabilities are heavily weighted "yes".

Has this answered your question?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:31 - ID#286249)
" uinderstand " ...perhaps--but can't type
{:- ) ) sorry...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:34 - ID#341234)
To: General
I am just wondering if the long term prospects for gold are indeed grim. If it can be mined so cheaply in record quantities, why should it ever increase in price? I used to think that lower prices meant lower production. Man, was I wrong. I especially like the quote, "Miners are accustomed to price fluctuations--we hike production to reduce fixed costs...". So, they INCREASE production when prices are low. This is the reward I get for making an "A" in Economics.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:36 - ID#234182)
STUDIO.R jjwalker
Stu; Just got in from feeding some cows... .now that my kids have gone to school, good helps hard to find..thanks for the jerryjeff url..who ever would have guessed that Walker would have is own homepage. You must have single handedly revised his sorryassed 15 minutes of fame as I have tried repeatedly to call up the the url and the message I get is that its busy.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:50 - ID#31876)
@IDT, Re. Your 13:57 About Carson City Silver Dollars
Because of their rarity, you definitely need a professional
appraisal. The range of value can exceed $2,000 each, depending
on date and condition.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:50 - ID#173274)
@the scene
fred -- IF gold were so plentifully in abundance, why is the 'leasing' business so 'good'? Only when demand outstrips new supplies coming to market can leasing survive, as leasing is more expensive than buying. And if gold is going back to $20 dollars/oz, tell it to simply go ahead and do it! Given todays demand, you ain't seen nothing yet should the price fall even further!!! They'd have to turn half the buildings in DC into mints to keep up with the demand.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 14:52 - ID#28882)
@SDRer - Thanks v. much for Sheng speech. sam_a (Topic Cop)

(Sat Nov 14 1998 15:02 - ID#344326)
Commentary from Bill Murphy of "Le Metropole Cafe"
Midas du Metropole
"The Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary"
November 12, 1998
Technicals -

Hold that tiger! Gold took out all the key moving averages today and closed above them all ( 20, 50, 100, and 200 ) . The open interest is a low 168,547 contracts and went down almost 4,000 contracts yesterday alone. There is a lot of spec buying power that is short, or not in the game at all. We are now headed towards the top end of the range and this time we should blow through $300. The extra time it has taken to move higher only solidifies the base. A close above $305 will complete the base and send the price of gold towards our near term target of $335. The bullish consensus is a low 34 and we still marvel at how few big picture bulls that there are. Most of the industry has $320 as its bullish goal for 1999. And those are the bulls. We see $400 within the year. Time will tell.

The scoreboard is lit! In our last Midas we suggested that new recovery highs would soon light up the scoreboard. The lights are bright and flashing uptown numbers. Silver has now completed its base and is set to move up to much higher levels. The bullish consensus is only 37%. Heard many of your neighbors talk about silver lately? The technicals are very strong. Good base, no gaps around $5, and it appears the bulls have won the battle for the control of the $5 area. What will Martin Armstrong, the silver bear, whine about this time?

Fundamentals -

The Caf has attracted some of the most informed people in the precious metals industry. The past week, or so, we have been getting a buzz that something was up and to look for a sharp move up in the price of gold and silver. A friend of one of our members bought over 1500 gold contracts, loaded up in silver, while also accumulating Placer and Newmont.

We were told yesterday that a big trade house was accumulating a big call position in gold and we heard that the Asian buying we have been telling about for some time was still there. Something IS up and we have been trying to figure out what it is ( see below ) . What we do know is that this feedback, combined with the recent quiet, narrow trading range, is giving us confidence that the big bull move, that we have been talking about for some time, may be underway.

Adding to the recent support to the market, has been reports ( Reuters ) of Australian producer buybacks. " Macquarie Bank bullion dealer Charles Perrignon put the extent of the buy-back at between half a million and one million ounces over the past three weeks in scattered buying." Much of the buying has been due to the strengthening Aussie dollar.

OK, so with all this buying, who is selling? We have been trying so source it out, and found out today it is an official sector sale. And that brings us to the " topic du jour". For some time we have been talking about official sector selling as a major determinant of why the price of gold has been so weak for so long. We also know that the price weakness has also been due to producer forward selling and to liberal gold lending by various bullion dealers. We are more bullish than most and are looking for $400 gold within the next year. Our thesis is that the bearish forces that have kept the price of gold at bay will be receding substantially over the next year and may all come together around the same time. In addition we see tremendous investment world wide demand for both gold and silver down the road. We have already reported to you of the surge in coin sales in the U. S. and for bar demand in Japan. To understand what could really set off a buying panic, we suggest you read Neville Bennett's last piece at the Man Ray Table.

If these bearish forces are going to recede, they had to be there for a reason in the first place. For some time we have been talking about an undisclosed central bank sale. If it, among others, has taken place and in greater numbers than most market participants think, then we can understand more clearly why the price of gold has been so weak for so long. If we then can believe that it will not be there in the future, at least not nearly in such size, in the coming months, or even years, then it strengthens our case for a much bigger move than most gold analysts believe is coming.

From yesterday's Bloomberg - " The European central banks should consider managing its extra reserves in more adventurous ways, said Jos Heuvelman of the Dutch central bank's financial markets department. Heuvelman said the ECB could learn from the Dutch central bank which had put more emphasis on increasing the financial return from its reserves. He said excess reserves.the ones which would not be needed at short noticedid not have to be invested in highly liquid instruments, such as U. S. treasury bills. Instead, the bank could " move into less liquid assets, possibly derivatives , possibly stocks, corporate bonds."

This statement has significant meaning to us. First, because, if you read between the lines, it confirms our suspicions that they ( the Dutch ) have been dumping gold, as we have heard, to do their derivative investing, etc. Therefore, we should expect a central bank sale announcement from the Dutch in the months to come with no more of this particular supply to hit the market from here on in ( Platts- Nov. 11 - " Netherland CB Won't Sell Any More Gold: Heuvelman ) . Therefore, with demand picking up substantially and the gold supply to the market place on the wane ( in addition to reduced gold lending due to credit contractions ) , we expect a dramatic gold move to the upside.

And two, and maybe of much greater importance down the road, is the realization how far reaching the financial mania has gone. This Dutch statement above comes after the Bank of Italy disclosed its investment in Long Term Capital and which Bank of Italy chief, Antonio Fazio, first denied any knowledge of. What if our Fed had not calmed down the Long Term situation? They intervened " because of systemic risk". What if more unthinkables happen? Some central banks may be too busy trying to extricate themselves from more embarrassing derivative and stock disasters to do any good for anybody else. I thought central banks were the conservative of conservative bastions of financial entities, not semi go go funds. If there ever was a time to be accumulating gold for the future, this is it. Charles Peabody's piece, Outrageous-Dealers are Looking for Another Bailout, in the library at the Hemingway Table, sheds further light on this subject.

More reassuring news: Bloomberg ( Nov 11 ) - The European Central Bank plans to increase its gold and foreign currency reserves by between 130 billion and 180 billion euros next year. In addition Reuters reports ( Nov 11 ) Bundesbank Council member Ernst Welteke said that a reduction in gold reserves was not a current topic for the eleven national central banks taking part in European Monetary Union.

While the market yawned yesterday at this news, we suggest to you what is, and might be, going on and why the precious metals are moving up at this time:

1. The official sector of Asia is buying bullion big time- many, many hundreds of tonnes. We told you that our government asked them not to push up the price while the Long Term Capital mess was being worked on. That grace period is over and they are buying in a big way.

2. They ( Asia ) are p'eed off at the U.S. for our arrogant ways and are forming an IMF type of banking institution utilizing the Yen as the reserve currency. There will be a substantial gold backing for this currency.

3. There is friction is Euroland at the central bank level. Reuters ( Nov. 10 ) "Fazio highlites potential for ECB schism." "Italian central banks chief Antonio Fazio touched a nerve on Tuesday when he suggested aloud what many had been thinking privately--Europeans central bankers may well clash on interest rate policy in the euro zone." There may also be friction ( we know there is ) on the role of gold as their own reserve. It is our feeling that they have become seriously aware of the Asian intentions and wanting to get the euro off the ground on solid footing, and not wanting to look less conservative than the Asians, may decide to up the amount of gold that is held by the ECB.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

The yoyo XAU is on the warpath again and surged 4.92 up to 81.38. The long term down trend line should be taken out in the near future and the XAU should jet propel its way upward.

If you are new to Midas or are already a full member, you many want to review our past commentary. You can do so by going to the library. Our past commentary is archived there and can be clicked to at the bottom of the James Joyce Table.

Bonds, stocks ( Dow ) , gold, silver, and the dollar all up today. Interesting. Our take on that. The markets are anticipating a rate cut. Whether it comes or not, gold and silver keep on going, and the dollar, stocks, and bonds go south.

The CRB closed at 206.05 and is making recovery highs.

Platinum closed up $11 today to close at $348. John Brimelow's recent very bullish platinum alert looks like a very good call.

I called Rudi Fronk, CEO of Greenstone Resources, one of our favorites. I wanted to know if there was anything we should all know about their mines in Nicaragua and Honduras after the killer hurricane swept through those countries. The bottom line is that the supply lines were cut for a few days, but everything has been restored and there was no damage to the gold mines, despite all the rain. Fortunately, the mines in those countries are not located where the storm did the serious damage.

Greenstone is a low cost producer with quality management. Recently, the stock was battered because certain production goals were not met. This was a result of reconfiguring the most productive way to mine the gold that they have found. This mine "commissioning" has been completed. Greenstone is a compelling value as " the shares are trading at 4 times cash flow, even at $275 gold," according to Rudi. We agree with him. Greenstone ( GRERF ) closed today on the Nasdaq at 1 3/8.

Many weeks ago we made mention that we understood Banker's Trust was "toast"- or would not survive without a takeover. Not toast yet, but their PE ratio is a modest 202. Most banks go for about 15 today.

All of you that are cleaning up on the internet stock plays, we are happy for you. Knock em dead. We know of one company that is trading at 50 times sales. One old timer we know of would only buy a stock if it was trading at 1 1/2 times sales. Times change. We do say that the wild internet play is another sign of the mania that we have been talking about. Make it while you can.

To wrap this up, we do no think the Iraqi situation has anything to do with today's precious metals move.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 15:20 - ID#147201)
SDRer re your 14:29
I will go over Sheng's work thorougly again. I did not get a rea clear picture of a universal or international standard for all currencies, including the infamous Euro. There is an historical unit - one ounce or any portion thereof, that can be a universal standard. What relation will all currencies have to this standard? A unit of weight is the standard in gold. A unit of account is the standard for currencies. If I have screwed up here, I will try to rectify later after reviewing Sheng's work. Many thanx, Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 15:28 - ID#249244)
Squirrel. your 3:59
Brother, I agree with you that people must be armed.
It is wonderful that Second Amendment exists and still
works...But honestly, I think it would be technically
dangerous to allow free circulation of anti-tank, anti-
air-craft and etc. means of should agree with
me that there are a lot of just plain idiots living in
the U.S., with extreme and stupid looks at different
matters. As a person who lived 33 years in the U.S.S.R.
and visited quite a few contries, mostly in Europe, I
would say that the U.S. government and political system
is not generaly hostile to the people living in the U.S.A.
IN COMPARISON with the other governments. Of course, we
must watch government and have ability to correct some
of its actions, but it would be "overkill" to start
creating gorilla army....

P.S. I would really love to have something fully-automatic,
for fun, of course....and legally, of course. But I do not
want to mess with hand grenades or RPGs...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 15:36 - ID#290172)
Chas--for me, the statement
"...role of the central bank in resolving bank runs was elegantly expounded by Walter Bagehot in Lombard Street , a PRINCIPLE that remains VALID TODAY..."

read with my post of Walter Bagehot's "Lombard Street" comments ( see earlier post ) says, "Gold Bullion" = "Universal GLOBAL Currency".

John Disney
(Sat Nov 14 1998 15:49 - ID#24135)
NOT cash flow.... Puleze
For CC ..
Bless you CC..
But let me point out that I do not give a rats @ss
for ABX great big cash flow .. it was simply related
to capital expenditures that kept it in the SAME
In May 1996 ABX had production of 3.1 mill oz
In May 1998 abx had production of 3.104 mill oz
There has been no change in stated resources or
reserves since may 1995 .. they have been static ..
in 1995 they claimed 43.3 mill oz reserves.. in 2
years they have added no new production and only
8 mill oz of reserves

in may 1996 Harmony had production of 0.624 mil oz
in may 1998 harmony had production of 0.780 mil oz
in jan 1999 Harmony will have production of 1.5 mill

in may 1996 Harmony had resources of 20 mill oz
Now Harmony has resources over 100 oz

Your cash flow argument is spurious TOTALLY !!
all of the costs for ABX whether you classify them
as "cash" .."depreciation" .. "exploration" ..
"bribes to 3rd world Government" OR THAT BIG TIME
US FAVORITE "One Off" ... ( see Homestake .. they
have a never ending string of "one off" ) ... have
been incurred simply to maintain ABX WHERE IS it ..
.. While staying in the same place and despite
a hedge program which looks suspiciously like
Gomment subsidy .. they make very little PROFIT ..
So tell ne all about it Mr CC .. WHERE does the
cash flow GO .. do you get it ?? It goes on capital
expenditure to keep the poor fools in the same
place .. so it is really an expense..

Conversely Harmony has doubled production in
15 months .. and resources went through the roof
gee and with such POOR cash flow .. and they have
made a profit too ..

MY dear CC.. I think that the RSA mines would
really welcome 3 years of gold at 200 bucks ..
they would have to delve into retained profits
and incur some debt .. but their NA opposition
would dissapear .. ( harmony has a debt of 15 mill
$ ... ABX has a debt of $350 mill .. ) ..
If ABX had no hedging .. they would struggle ..

but lets continue .. referring to world gold
analyst for august 1998 .. we see a "cash flow"
analysis ''

ABX cash flow ( mill ) for year ending 1997 is showm as
Year ....................1997 1996
earnings ................... ( 123 ) 218
depletion amortization...... 188 183
other non cash.............. 394 57
other....................... 11 5
total provided by operating..470 463
net cash used in investing.. ( 368 ) ( 819 )

net cash from borrowing ..... ( 55 ) 346

total cash flow per share
from operations ...........1.25 1.23
total cash flow REQUIRED
for investing per share ....$0.97 $2.76
Harmony cash flow 1997
earnings................... 10.6
depl.etc................... 10.5
other ................... 6.6
total from operating ........... 27.7
per share ....... $0.40

net cash used in investing ..... 29.3
per share .................. $0.42

Cash flow in isolation means stuff all ..
since in NA very high cash flows are required to
maintain your operations ... In RSA Harmony has
expanded their resource base 5 times in two
years and doubled capacity for roughly 1/3 of
the investment requirement per share that ABX
experiences just to stay in the same place ..
Bless you .. this in the end .. buy ABX and
enjoy the big cash flow .. as it dissapears into
a hole in the ground.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:00 - ID#290172)
and further, why it WON'T be a commodity basket ?
Sheng's oblique reference to Bagehot's essay about "commodity baskets" as value benchmarks--

"...And in consequence, the paying medium is in a state of incessant fluctuation, as compared with the standard. Sir R. Peel's question. 'What is a pound?' is answered by saying: 'The pound is a list of such and
such articles; ' but then none of these articles are in use; the only things in use are coins and banknotes payable in coin -- so that
the relation of the coinage to the 'standard' is in a state of incessant variation. And this is a fundamental fault, because the relation
of the actual money to the abstract standard ought always to be the same, for concrete money is the only means of bringing an
abstract standard into action. A good 'standard of value' is of no use without the supplement of a good paying machinery, and no
such machinery can be good which shifts in its relation to the standard. This is the essential fault of an inconvertible currency, say,
of 'greenbacks' for as no one can demand metal dollars for them, they are sometimes at one value and sometimes at another.
And so would the paying media under the proposed tabular system; their relation to the standard would be varied periodically, at
the discretion of Commissioners, and consequently, they would be unfit for the purpose of commerce. We cannot think, therefore, that this plan will be of any use in practice. We must be 'Conservative', so far as an adherence to a gold and silver coinage goes; but it is instructive to trace the effects of such schemes, and they could not be discussed unless they were proposed."

COMMENT--"Commodity basket" has been a concern of mine. It is very big with western cbs. The EMEAP bankers appear stalwart. Gold. {:- )

Sam_A--your very welcome. Enjoy!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:25 - ID#147201)
Obsidian re unbalanced!!
I may well agree about unbalanced today, but if you still have trouble emailing, please call collect 828 433 6473. I guess we are seeing the early stage of Leonid or some such. Thanx for such a jovial comment . Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:29 - ID#210282)
AI: Not delivered yet
Miro: Agreed. I think the most interesting stuff is on two fronts --

First, the 'Chaos' concepts that came out of the Santa Fe Institute -- though I am not up on their current activities. Fascinating -- being applied to economics right now.

And Second, the 'fuzzy logic ' with ultraminiturization of memory units. Also, I think with wavelet/wavepacket analysis techniques, one might design computers that 'think' in images.

Admittedly there is a long way to go, but it was not so long ago that we were stepping on the moon. Think the computer on the Apollo had about 8k of memory. And before that, the Model T Ford. My dad still remembers having to drive backwards up the hill because the forward leather belts would slip. At that time, any discussion about computers would have been considered nonsense.

So -- my point is that one of us may be around when artificial intelligence really gets off the ground.

And -- yes -- I do fear the possibility that intelligent computers might consider us 'vermin' to be exterminated. Just imagine explaining to a computer that an illogical flesh and blood human is its father/mother.

We will have major ethical problems, even my oft-stated one -- that intelligent life is the most precious thing in the universe. That will include artificial life, too. The problems with the ethical aspects of clones would be less controversial than the ethics of artificial life. But we will have to address these matters.

Come to think of it -- could one reason that we do not have extraterrestrial visitors be because we do not have well-developed ethical concepts of non-human or non-biological intelligent life?

How would be treat an intelligent robot right now? I have vivid images of the frightened farmer with the shotgun.

Hope you have a nice time with your boat. I am stuck at work. Might get a chance with my little boat tomorrow after work.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:33 - ID#410196)
MINE 101

Yes, as the price of gold goes down, the cost of extracting it goes down.

Fred, in addition to an "A" in ECON 422 a gold mine investor one needs at least a "C" in MINE 101. With apologies to the savants on this board who know very much more of the subtitles than I, here is the simple analysis. It will be facile to the old sweats here but as well as Fred, there will be some lurkers who will gain an insight that is very important.

A gold mine is a /business/. Gold mines are in business to be in business. On that premise, it is bad practice to "high grade" a property and make a lot of money when prices are good and so end up with what is then a low grade, expensive to mine, property. Such a property must be shut down and then restarted when prices are very much higher. That cycle is horrendously expensive for reasons that would require a lengthy post but you can guess at some of them.

Sound practice, then, dictates getting the most out of one's investment in plant, equipment and personnel recruiting and training and that means continuos production over many years. Fifteen or 20 years is probably the shortest practical life in North America but some mines go on and on; Mr. Disney can comment on the latter type of operation. There is also the self interest of the individuals involved in the mining company, at /all/ levels. Frankly, they want the status quo to last, that keeps them in a job after all. What passes for a well managed mine today mines to make money at $300 per oz. That will mean extracting and processing ore which makes money at $300 oz. and tightening the belt on exploration and j.v. costs. If the price of gold goes to $400 per oz, be very sure you will begin to see the expressions "increased costs", "lower grade mill feed" and "exploration costs" and similar to appear in mines' annual reports.

If you doubt any of this, cast your mind back to the time when the p.o.g. was descending below $340. "Great minds" were commenting that gold mines would be closing all over the world if gold went down to $300 because of the costs then prevailing for mining gold. A classical example of costs adjusting themselves to the p.o.g. is Placer Dome, one of my holdings. Your ECON 422 mind would find it humorous to track the changes in the costs incurred by Placer Dome and the profits made over, say, the last two years.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:36 - ID#237299)
Chas: I dun figghured it owut...yup yup
Said mail should have arrived already. The "reply to" was missing one of the carats. I would give example but Bart's server thinks I am trying to submit HTML and spits it back.

I became Unbalanced just trying to figure it out.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:38 - ID#26793)
No one expects bullion prices to rise anytime soon

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:38 - ID#413156)
An article by Harper's magazine editor Lewis Lapham He wrote an essay called "Lights, Camera, Democracy!"
where he noted that the oligarchy, the behind-the-scenes actual power in this country,
was feeling a bit nervous. In his detached, cynical tone, he compared the Presidential
campaign to a Zuni corn festival, where ancestral symbols of power are trotted out on a
quadrennial basis to make a show of Democracy for the general population. He called the
elected politicians the "provisional government," and the oligarchy ( the Fortune 500
crowd, the media and entertainment moguls, the giant law firms, etc. ) he termed the
"permanent government."

The permanent government hires the country's politicians and sets the framework
under which the citizenry can exercise its rights. The permanent government is obedient
to the rule of men, not laws, and "oversees the production of wealth, builds cities,
manufactures goods, raises capital, fixes prices, shapes the landscape, and reserves the
right to assume debt, poison the rivers, cheat the customers, receive the gifts of federal
subsidy, and speak to the American people in the language of low motive and base

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:41 - ID#210282)
Back to work!
SDRer: I'd like to add my two cents -- no pun intended. Since 1972 most currencies in the world have been floating relative to gold. And yet -- gold is the only reserve asset with fixed value. I think most central banks have most reserves in fiat currency, with the exception of the BIS.

Now my point is this -- it has been many years since the gold standard days. If the EURO is to be based more firmly on gold, someone must be working out the formulas for this -- fiat money for short term exchange fluctuations, gold for long term fluctuations. Surely we can get our hands on the outline of a prototype. Even if it is not the final version, we will have some idea of how the machinery of the EURO is set up. If the ECU waits too long, they will be unable to meet their deadlines -- some years in advance.

So my reasoning is that the math has been worked out already for several models, with contingency plans. Somehow we have to get past the smoke and mirrors.

I have a book about switching to the gold standard ( though not titled as such ) , by Krugman and ? sponsored by the major academic economics societies in the US and UK. 1995, I think. If you are interested, when I get home I can post excerpts.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:43 - ID#37463)
Gasoline prices
Deflation appears to be happening. Its hard to believe that with the tax which is on gasoline at the pump that gasoline is selling at 89 cents a gallon in Albuquerque. It was selling for that more than 22 years ago when I passed the bar exam. What, in deed, is going on. Maybe Another knows something after all.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:43 - ID#26793)
Investors stage gold rush as Gulf tensions rise

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:49 - ID#341234)
To: Retearivs
Great point about the mines that were supposed to close all over the world if the price went below $300.

A few questions. Assuming demand stays about the same, can this "cheap gold" last forever, or will it run out due to less exploration. If it will run out, how long will it take? Will mining companies ever start going out of business if gold stays at this price?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:52 - ID#26793)
Russia changing the rules on gold sales again, and again, and again

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:53 - ID#153110)
@"Technically Dangerous"
What do it mean ? A bull is dangerous. A man may be dangerous. Metal is not dangerous, technically or otherwise.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 16:56 - ID#26793)
Russia wants to sell gold backed bonds to foreign banks

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:00 - ID#147201)
Obsidian re unbalanced!!
I may well agree about unbalanced today, but if you still have trouble emailing, please call collect 828 433 6473. I guess we are seeing the early stage of Leonid or some such. Thanx for such a jovial comment . Charlie

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:06 - ID#26793)
China faces dark side of financial troubles

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:20 - ID#26793)
Banker certain that G-7 countries will act to prevent deflation.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:21 - ID#237299)
Chas: Check your mail, it should be there now.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:22 - ID#290202)
Retearivs & Fred ...very interesting discussion...
What about Silver? Is it getting any cheaper to mine? Is there a GPS
consideration? .....On the other hand, since gold is the "political metal"
does cost of production really matter at all??? May "they" not fix it at any
"price" that is convenient to "themselves", and their purposes???

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:25 - ID#147201)
Whoever re Jevon
Jevon's basket of commodities as an alternative to gold is a basket of Blivits. This is old time BS re all anti gold proponents- usually centered at the the London School of Economics. Just dump it

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:26 - ID#237299)
Who can help me with non-english character codes?
I have seen EB and Aurator and others make posts with non-standard characters and wish to do this.

I just opened my mail and someone sent me a Russian Orthadox cross covered with Cyrillic writing. Lacking a scanner I thought I'd post the text in Cyrillic and ask Orris to translate.

Any help is much appreciated.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:28 - ID#290172)
Charlie, they did!
( circa 19th century England ) BUT they keep bringing it back!
Perhaps Dr. Sheng has ground it under his heel?
With high hopes...{:- ) )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:28 - ID#26793)
China has made a risky decision to deflate rather than devalue

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:31 - ID#290172)
Donald, GITIC bond issue due next week
interesting to see how it goes...small $85m...

Gusto Oro
(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:33 - ID#430260)
Deflation Huh? And I suppose your lawyers fees are the same as they were 22 years ago? --AG

Gusto Oro
(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:34 - ID#430260)
Deflation Huh? And I suppose your lawyer's fees are the same as they were 22 years ago? --AG

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:37 - ID#249244)
Technically dangerous means that it is dangerous technology
to use w/o training. Where in the hell you gonna practice
with anti-tank or anti-aircraft missile launcher? At the
local Conservation Club's shooting range? You must practice
with these things in order to use them correctly, baby...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:39 - ID#119358)
@John O. that three part HarmOny........
large, economical reserves, a virtually debt-free balance sheet and innovative, agressive management....o' sweet muzac to my ears.

FTR ( for da' record ) an appeal to fagen has been dutifully lodged. studio.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:41 - ID#29048)
Using windows 95 or NT, go to accessories and thence to character map. You can select symbols and letters and even download more sets from the web. Alternately, you can use the ALT + keys. Hold down the ALTkey and type 225 on the numeric keypad to get  in my current character set.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:43 - ID#147201)
JTF re Krugman
Please post what you can re gold standard and the reference to Krugman. Thanx, Charlie

Gusto Oro
(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:45 - ID#430260)
You are probably right about deflation. --AG

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:49 - ID#153110)
@Regulus @Lapham
On his pages you read the despair of a fool for demoncrazy. He is some steps beyond ROR in understanding, being unimpeded by the barrier of direct self-interest. He no longer believes as ROR still does that his ideal of demoncrazy can be realized. He does not yet know that the demoncrazy which FDR promised would control the corporations was in fact a huge deception spawned in a conspiracy of the government and the bank corporations to defraud. Corporate Federalism, the insiders word for demoncrazy, is official fraud.

The shadow, permanent government at its core is the corporation, because perpetuity is a privilege which the person of the corporation has been granted by government.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:49 - ID#72206)
@ JTF 11.42
My eyes blurred over at the no respect for human life

What do you call the starvation of half a million children???

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:52 - ID#26793)
China suffers oversupply and overcapacity in all industry sectors; prices falling

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:53 - ID#43349)
The rolling ball
Did I ever mention that rattlesnake whipsaws sometimes move out of the markets and into the political and international affairs arena?

A juggernaut can be hard to stop once you get it rolling.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:55 - ID#290456)
IDT @ CC Morgans

Here are some current RETAIL prices for GEM BU
quality. Note that CC Dollars in GSA plastic
holders and box would sell for a premium over
these prices, as would 3rd party professional
graded coins in slabs, especially if grade is over MS-63. Of course, lesser quality than GEM BU would sell for lower prices.

Carson City Morgan Dollars

1878 $109
1879 $1750
1880 $219
1881 $209
1882 $88
1883 $85
1884 $85
1885 $229
1890 $249
1891 $189
1892 $550
1893 $1750

(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:58 - ID#29048)
Obsidian @ Cyrillic characters
I just found this site and it appears to be of some help....

Gusto Oro
(Sat Nov 14 1998 17:58 - ID#430260)
"What do you call the starvation of half a million children???"

I usually call it murder. But from a president who won't even sign a partial birth abortion ban, what do you expect. Saddam and Clinton are both DEMONCRAZY when it comes to kids. --AG

Gold Dancer
(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:03 - ID#377196)
Disney: my comments on Harmony and your being off on their having 100 million oz. was not that you were lying or "wrong" but that when gold
is under $300 those reserves are meaningless. That is why the company
doesn't even mention this in their reports anymore. No one wants to
hear it.

I don't own any NA gold stocks like ABX etc. because I think the SAs
are much more undervalued. Whether it is HGMCY, DROOY, RANYD, or any
other, they are the best buys in the world right now. Someday those
reserves of Harmony's will count, but not now. Same with DROOY.

I invest for the future and it is coming.

I agree with your anaysis on ABX and HGMCY. Harmony just does
not have the financial clout of ABX and promises are only promises.
Some day the price of gold will be much higher and HGMCY will close
the gap on ABX and may even surpass ABX but not unless they find some
cheap ounces. Even with 1.5 million oz of production HGMCY will
never get anyplace unless the POG rises signicantly and their production
rises to 2 to 3 million oz. The history of gold is that it just does
not stay up for that long. So if you are not producing much you can
never make much. Does not matter what you have in the ground unless you
can sell it at a high price. Hey, how about a fixed price of $650.
That would give HGMCY a profit of $400 an oz. times 1.5 million ozs.=
$600 million profit divided by 68 million shares or $6.60 per share.
Pay out a dividend of $4.50 per share and HGMCY just might sell for
$100 paying a $4 1/2 % yield. Just right for a depression. What about
ABX? They would probably be making about $450 on each ounce times 3.5
million ounces =1.575 billon divided by 350 million shares = $4.50
a share in earnings which would mean about a $3.60 dividend and if the
per cent dividend is the same the stock would sell for about $80.
So from 22 to 80 is a move of 360%. Not bad. But look at HGMCY : A
move of $5 to $100 is a move of 2000 % or 5.55 times more than Barrick.

So $10,000 in ABX ends up being $36,000
A $10,000 in HGMCY ends up being $200,000

OR 5.5555555555555 times more money.

So both DISNEY and CC are correct. The winner for the most bang
for the buck lies in SA gold stocks.

Go GOlD. Thanks, GD

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:05 - ID#249244)
I'll help you to translate as soon as you can post
this writting...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:08 - ID#147201)
mozel re your 17:49
It will take quite some intrusion into the minds of most to realize what you have said here. QUESTION: how do we intrude effectively??

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:14 - ID#334219)
Gold Dancer
Agreed..if gold goes to $600... but what if gold stop for a few years at the $200 level before going higher ? What about SA golds...?

Gold Dancer
(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:14 - ID#377196)
Over supply of goods
Why is the world so surprised by the fact that the world is swimming
in goods? Of course it is!! That is the result of supply side economics!!
Supply side economics means more money for the boss and less for the
worker. It means going to foreign countries and paying substandard
wages, shipping the goods home, charging the same high prices and pocketing
the difference.


Demand side economics is where the people who do the work are paid
a "living wage" so that they can afford to purchase the goods that they


Thanks, GD

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:22 - ID#412286)
Absolutely correct. Now the labor credit side is terminal hence the welocomed demise of the Supply side economics of Arthur Laffable who Reagan adopted. With a blow up in Capital labor will gain the upper hand and a new Progressive era will begin. The Lawyers and Labor are the only ones fighting the GOOD FIGHT while still in the death throes of the Wall St Reagan neo liberalistic era. The future BELONGS TO US ( PROGRESSIVES ) .

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:40 - ID#341234)
To: Savage
On the question of cost of production, my guess is that it does matter in that it determines how much physical gold is dumped on the spot market. Even though there are 120,000 tonnes of gold in existence, the 4,000 tonnes of physical gold that trade hands every year determine the price. If there was not enough physical supply to satisfy the demand, the price would have to increase to increase the supply or reduce the demand. Unfortunately, most of the physical gold is used in jewelry, and there is less demand due to the world recession.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:42 - ID#72206)
@ Gusto
I'm not sure it's murder, as much as it's terror.... The US seems not to be able to understand that perhaps terror only works so long... Backing a bully down in school amounts to the same thing.. The bully becomes confused when the pip squeak says FU,, .. I have a very dear friend of Iranian descent... I can honestly say that I have never seen a person who can haggle/negotiate as well as him.. I put this down to thousands of carpet deals in his genes... He will make you smile when you drop the price of your carpet below whatever you previously determined you would go...
Saddam is doing the same thing... this is a major test for the pompous US punk kid.. IMHO

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:46 - ID#210282)
Your comment about my 11:42 and no respect for human life.
Arby: I'm not sure why your eyes blurred over. Because Saddam let 500,000 children die? I'm not sure how to deal with leaders like Saddam who rule with an iron fist, and consider the continuity of his weapons of mass destruction program over and above the rights of 500,000 children. Like North Korea. The Western powers decided against overthrowing him when they could have, as then they would really be holding the bag -- somewhat like the problem Israel has right now. Winning a war and occupying a country can create real dangerous problems.

I know Saddam had a boatload of lethal weapons during the Gulf war -- such as the 'cannon launcher' that could send projectiles into Israel or possibly into the US. The design is disturbingly simple, and relatively low-tech. So the threat to world peace was a major consideration -- then. I think now the threat is returning because of the lack of resolve of the relevant leaders to maintain the inspections. Saddam will never back down and stop trying to make weapons of mass destruction -- so our resolve must not waiver either.

And the UN was delivering food for oil -- so humanitarian activity is present. Please clarify your concern -- were the western powers not fast enough to deliver food against the obstacles that Saddam set up?

If your concern is that we Westerners did not do enough in Iraq, do you have any suggestions for dealing with Saddam, or North Korea, for that matter? The North Koreans are notorious for refusing food despite the deaths of millions. And now we find them launching multistage missles over Japan when they should be feeding their children. I don't think any offer of aid has been accepted there.

My philosophy is that avoidable death is unacceptable -- in any country -- but I do not know how to deal with such countries as Korea or Iraq.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:51 - ID#72206)
How was he to stop letting 500,000 children die... Agree to licking US boots???

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:54 - ID#72206)
Saddam was fine in the US's books when we manufactured hate of IRAN... The fact that he has no respect for human life went down just fine with us...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 18:59 - ID#219363)
Just one comment about junk mail, the Internet certainly hasn't cut down on the junk mail coming through the US mail. If anything, it's worse with information technology. Used to be it was expensive to send junk mail, you had to print it up which was expensive enough, then put a bulk stamp on it. Then along came the fax machine and people started fax blasting crap all over the telephone lines to anyone who had a carrier. Now, the ultimate sin, the Internet junk email message has taken root ( I remember a nicer Internet day when nobody would think of doing such a thing ) , and you can send a billion email messages to anyone with an email address for the cost of bandwidth! Thank goodness we don't have some sort of telepathy network, I'd hate for this stuff to get blasted straight into my cortex, television and radio are bad enough. I think I would have liked the days of door-to-door salesmen better, at least those guys were polite.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:00 - ID#252150)
JTF@It may sound callous, but who cares if Saddam killed some of his
family members, including his son. They have an alien culture that may repulse you. IMO, his transgressions pale in comparison to what your President & Attorney General did to their own citizens, including many children in Waco. That senseless horrible crime in Waco ranks right up there with the worst atrocities in history, IMO.

You may be right about the possibility of the USD & POG moving higher together, but I won't be betting on it.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:02 - ID#72206)
Unconditional is what Blair said... I think that is how Hitler in an erlier time moved us ( the unelite ) to insanity... I refuse to be brainwashed, and I am not a team player... I feel guilty/ depressed about it , but the facts speak for themselves....


(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:13 - ID#343449)!

is this what is actually happening?
saddam backing down...partially..
then bombed by the west....again....

seemingly a victim....maybe......

floding like hell here in s texas...flood of the century
for the second time in 5 going to kick ass
all over this year.......grain calls are in me..immb


(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:13 - ID#210282)
Now I understand -- the Ugly American bit -- point well taken
Arby: You are absolutely right about that kind of double standard. Our foreign policy is pitiful in the sense that we thought it was to our advantage to pump up Saddam and Iraq to weaken Iran. Big mistake.

Our foreign policy should never be to support totalitarian regimes because of some short term need -- like political expediency. We created Saddam the monster, and in that sense we are responsible for those he has killed. Our CIA is thoroughly compromised, and incapable of helping anti-Saddam groups overthrow him. All we have done so far is inadvertently help Saddam exterminate them. This is probably not a fault of our CIA personnel, but rather the politicians that orchestrate policy.

What worries me is that as we weaken our military, we will continue to try to be the World's policeman, but with less and less conventional, troop type resources. This will only encourage unethical and dangerous approaches toward foreign policy.

We should also be placing more emphasis on diplomacy, and get a more competent Secretary of defense -- more should be done to help the process of peace in the Middle East, rather than whirlwind peace marathons in Washington with little followup -- Jimmy Carter was much better at this -- although his skills as Commander in Chief were severely lacking. That fellow who handles the Serbian/Bosnian negotiotiations is superb. Why not promote him, and kick out the political types? WJC won't do it.

WJC thinks politics when he should be thinking world peace. His popularity at home comes first even in the second term. And -- that is when most presidents mature and become much more presidential. This Oxford graduate is a dud, even without XXXGate.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:14 - ID#72206)
@ James
The US has never had a problem with Nasty, better yet , vicious dictators who have no respect for human life...They are supported and encouraged... I'm out of line here , It is not the US, but the oligarchy blowing in the politician's ears, and the spin doctors they get to sell it to the people... There is so much evidence to this fact that I find it, undeniable....
PS; HUH,, What about Pinochet??? They twist every convoluted law to get him off the hook---- He's one of da boyz--- Yeah ,, he's a team player...
He dropped the gloves for da team YAH....

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:15 - ID#280214)
Literate and intelligent minds here exemplify the best of internet and Liberty
CompGeek's 12:46 embodies why this forum's level of thought and discourse is as far above typical internet chat as the best of Star Trek Voyageur is above the original "Lost In Space" {I'm an unapologetic and inveterate fan of serious sci fi}

Gagnrad's 13:59 post on 18th century "regulation" explains the 2nd amendment context and thus its meaning BUT, the courts and wannabe tyrants continue to liken it to today's bureaucratic poison.

XT's are indeed wondrous power for many who have none. JTF's 12:55 may explain why I collect Mac 128's, SE's and similar 1980's classic computers. They are still excellent for what they were designed to do. I could write a book with one. And they have sentimental value for us MacHeads. {They are also proof that an operating system, word processor AND graphics program ALL CAN FIT on one side of a 3.5" floppy in 400K}

Envy@12:55 add's much to this incisive chain of posts on how internet and computing has helped us do our work and research and remain vigilant of our liberties and transgressions against them - whether we live in democracies or under oppressive regimes. Soon, as prices come down and availability goes up, when a person has access to the internet via copper line in NYC or Iridium phone in Tibet they have a weapon against tyranny that strikes fear in despot's black "hearts". That is why they seek to prevent or regulate access thereto just as Clinton & Reno seek the same regarding small arms.

Pardon if I missed some other posts - I have yet to catch up on reading.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:20 - ID#45173)
Limits of the Internet
From the experience of writing and reviewing tons of biz plans for Internet companies and from using the Internet since 1985, I can drop off two I hope useful tidbits I've learned:
1 ) You can't make anyone do anything over the Internet, you still have to get in their face
2 ) The value of information is proportionate to the effort you're willing to make to get it

But there is lots of speculating still to do in the Internet. You can make real money doing it, money you can use to buy gold, for example.

Charles Keeling
(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:22 - ID#344225)
@ Gold Dancer RE: Your 18:03
Nice post. I also hold some RSA stocks, RANYD & DROOY.

After reading the figures you posted I may also add add
some additional HGMCY. ( I thiink RANYD hold some HGMCY )

My only concern is: The RSA government does not impress
me at all. Mandela seems to me to be a Communist. I can't
keep from wondering when he might make a move on the Gold
Mining Companies.

How long with the Blacks is RSA allow things to be as there

The USA furnishes a signifigant portion of the capital for
Corporations. I really believe that this "concern" about
the stability of RSA government is acting as a brake to
US investors. I am sure that a real good gold bull run will
correct the imbalance, because I do seem to remember that
the RSA gold stocks were the first to soar back some years
ago during the gold bull market.

Could there be a difference this time?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:25 - ID#72206)
" Our policy should have never been to support totalitarian regimes"

I agree,, but you do , over and over..... Why is this? Why Is this?
Enquiring dummies want to know....

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:29 - ID#210282)
Got to run!
James: I think we must not be thinking just in terms of black and white, but see shades of grey. I think we should examine the Iraq situation, and the WACO situation separately.

For example, I think any honest American who knows the facts should be appalled about the WACO situation. I think a great part of the problem there is the BATF is notorious for running amuck. Those people are poorly selected and inadequately trained -- something out of Hitler's or Mussolini's time. As far as I am concerned that organization should be disbanded completely. And -- the FBI should return to the traditional standards and guidelines for honesty that they once honored. I think our current FBI director is an improvement, by the way, and I hope the FBI lab is no longer corrupted. But -- I am not sure. I do know someone who is FBI -- my age -- and he is worth respecting. But -- I do not know the current generation of graduates.

All I can say about WACO and similar situations, is I hope that the cleansing action that is beginning to be focused on the White House also focuses on other parts of the US Government.

I sincerely hope it is not too late for our Democracy, and we have crossed our Rubicon. I will know if Kenneth Starr fails to follow through -- Nixon was impeached on far less.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:31 - ID#403195)
A cursory view

There are many well informed observers on this board, Fred, and perhaps they would like to offer a more heavyweight comment than mine, below. The Kitco board is quiet today so a longish post will be indulged in.

To answer that question about how long it will be practical to mine at today's price for gold, for me it is necessary to look beyond the holes in the ground. I have the sense that stupendous volumes of gold are being moved across the rings to swamp legitimate trading and so to allow the establishment a politically convenient price and a "stable" price. A great show is being made of moving gold from one place to another. It is, in reality, simply being shuffled from one pocket to another in the same pair of trousers.

This conclusion is not arrived at by moving /forward/ from first principles since great care is being taken not to allow us to see what is going on. In the same way a sleight of hand performer must not allow his audience to see what he is actually doing lest he lose their interest, the central banks must not allow us to see them trading around staggering volumes of gold, either bullion or paper, lest we twig. Just as certain as we are that we are being "had" when we look at a performing magician, we can be sure that we are being "had" by all this "selling" of bullion by central banks. It matters not that we don't see how it is done. That gold is going around in a circle, however, has to be for, were that not the case, the volumes would imply a price shift as it accumulated somewhere. That the volume is astronomical and yet the price isn't changing demonstrates that the physical is not "going" anywhere. This observation applies, though to a lesser degree, even in the "gold for oil" case.

Now with those premises we can address your question. You can see that under these conditions the price of gold from the supply side has two controlling factors. The first is the volume that can be moved about by the central banks to bury physical trading and offtake and the second is the input from mines at various prices. The input from mines is in two forms, physical delivery and forward sales. The matter of mine supply becomes a bit complex at this point and won't be pursued further. Others may wish to detail the matter. The point is that by huge bogus transactions, the central banks can force miners to sell their gold "through" to their legitimate buyers at the price that they, the central banks, choose. There is a presumption in this that the bankers are able to select a price that will, over a long period, match the volume that the reduced price implies in physical offtake.

Now we get down to the neat stuff. As has been pointed out on this board before, a very unstable situation can build under these conditions. Should demand increase or mine input, physical or forward, decrease or a combination of these, the central banks simply won't be able to strong arm the price without impoverishing themselves by actual bullion sales. With regard to continuing at these prices levels, miners have to decide if they wish to sell at these prices and that is something that the central bankers must measure very carefully. The banks have to be sure not to upset what has become a very delicate balance.

Will the mines continue at these prices? They will at some volume, they wish to stay in business. They seem not to be so wedded to the idea now of selling forward and that may mean that they are now pretty well adjusted to $300. As has been pointed out on this board, they may well also have seen something in the future that we are unable to detect. I'd say, world wide, that they have the /ability/ to produce at these prices and volumes for a long time, Fred. They might well be gently setting up the banks for a squeeze, however. If they do get together and restrict supply to actual output, the bankers are going to have very difficult decisions to make. Those decisions may be in process at this moment.

If the central bankers are faced with an increased physical offtake, as the world's investors begin to realize how inane the fiat paper situation has become, they will reach a point where they cannot or will not completely bury legitimate trading. At that point, the central bankers will then have to reap the whirl wind that they sowed when they began squeezing the miners' price downward. The price of gold will then be rising, that will attract more buyers and the price will take off unless the central banks wish to impoverish themselves just exactly when they most need the confidence of their citizenry.

Under these conditions, the miners will be in no hurry to increase production to sell into the rising market nor will they be eager to sell forward. They can see the situation as well as we can. The miners are making money right now and they will make very much more without raising a finger as gold goes back through $400 and beyond. Indeed, they will be content to see the central banks sweat in the sauna that they built for themselves at the expense of the miners.

The miners will, of course, increase production as time goes along but that will not damp the price leap that we are talking about. After that quantum leap, /the mines/ will then be in a position to set the new price of gold. The banks will have to accede to that price when reestablishing the model. That price will not be any $300 per oz.

Now all this skips out a lot of subtitles, especially the vast "paper" gold trade, political risk for miners, the unexplained confidence of short sellers and deliberate whipsawing of the price by central banks to obscure the situation after break out, but one has to set limits. This will give a general idea.

( Silver in another post, Savage, this was long winded enough! )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:34 - ID#72206)
GOLD sUCKS....Tell me it doesn't

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:34 - ID#43352)
Presto digito! Funding!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:39 - ID#210282)
Because we are acting stupid -- it is shortsighted
arby: I am not sure about this, but I think it is because our American leaders do not think long term -- everything is short term -- an election cycle -- and there is tremendous pressure from Lobbying interest groups.

Our government has gotten too big -- past critical mass and has a tendency to feed itself when ever it can -- with shortsighted policies of short term gain, often with long term loss.

The drug raids performed by various agencies are getting out of hand, because they get money from confiscated property. So -- now they find all sort of inappropriate excuses to make more money. Going after criminals only is not enough it seems.

I think part of the problem is inherent in Democracies -- something Winston Churcill once said. I wish we were better. Being better than totalitarian regimes is not good enough.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:39 - ID#433172)
gold doesn't s

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:41 - ID#290456)
Dec 12, 1998 1:45 a.m. OFF TOPIC

While websurfing the other day I stumbled across a site which predicted the start of WW III at the
above date and time, and linked the prediction to
current events such as the stock market bottoming
in October and an attack on Iraq.

Being a curious person, I sent an inquiry to the
site author as to the source of and motivation for such a specific prediction, I received ( only ) the
following reply:

Go to:

I offer this at its face value without comment.
You be the judge - it is an intense site, as a
friend noted after examining it for a couple

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:44 - ID#237299)
Speed and Orris: Thanks for the help!
Speed, the link you posted got cut off half way through. Could you re-post? Thanks!

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:44 - ID#225236)
arby - some extra examples of US's benevolence
1. Kurdistan
The Turkish troops ( with the help of US Air Force -- "no-fly" zones ) have so far exterminated 35,000+ Kurds. How does that compare to the 800 Albanians and the fuss US makes about it in Kosovo?! Well, that 37,000 really isn't such a bad deal. After all, Turkey is US's and Isral's friend.

2. Southern Mexico.
For quite some time the Mexican government has been brutally supressing the uprising in the Chiapas province ( tens of thousands DEAD ) . All what US has done was to seal the border with the Mexican "Federales" so the "armas" do not get through. Naive gringos are simply told that this was done to stop the illegal immigration. After all, the corrupted Mexican government has been a good friend of the US. The same family has pretty much ruled Mexico from the turn of the century with help of the gringo dolares. After all, keeping Mexican peasants poor has been a good deal for both Mexican and US govenments. The poor Mexican peasants, migrating north to escape poverty and opression have been a perfect excuse for the US govenment to turn the US into a police state ( national ID cards etc ) . Never mind that all these problems ( illegal immigration ) could be quickly solved if US stopped financing sick and corrupted government of Mexico.

3. Angola.
To help its Marxist-Socialist friends in Angola, the US has declared embargo and wide-reaching sanctions on UNITA ( the non-socialist opposition ) so that the socialists could finally get rid of them.

4. Haiti
How dare they try to have a non-Communist run their government ( and without asking US's permission FIRST ) ! US Armada to the rescue! The US's beloved Marxist butcher ( Aresteed ) is back in power.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:47 - ID#404410)
Saddam Hussein starving?
Is Saddam starving? Look at his gut and make your own decision. Of course, his country's children is another story.


(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:49 - ID#423313)
Of pluralism and lines in the sand
I agree that there exist cultural differences as to the meaning and importance of human rights. I have lived in the Middle East and in Central America, where human rights were a foreign concept. I also agree that the US should not be imposing its McValues on the world. We obviously have a hard enough time getting it right at home. What countries have school-aged children executing their peers. Only the most destructive and tyrannical of regimes. And yet it happens here.

And obviously the Gulf War was about oil in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and had NOTHING to do with democracy.

But there are circumstances that call for complete and overwhelming intervention. A megalomaniacal sadist with the will to develop AND use weapons of mass destruction is one of those circumstances. Saddam Hussein does NOT reflect the culture of his people. He is sick. Like Dahmer sick. Like Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin sick. What is called for is not some "clean" and politically popular solution like "surgical airstrikes". Desperate circumstances require unpopular but appropriate actions, like troops on the ground ( I've worn green and I don't suggest this lightly ) .

US foreign policy is the cause of a significant number of today's crises. And it is simply a continuation of the nihilistic hegemony of yesteryear's European imperialists. But that does not negate the need to appropriately respond to unbalanced individuals with inordinate destructive power, any more than previous instances of child abuse negating the need to remove the car keys from a drunk teenager.

Just my two cents.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:51 - ID#239256)

Hi all.
Where is another these days.?
I miss his comments ,true or false

(Sat Nov 14 1998 19:52 - ID#404410)
Saddam an aggressor? Ask Kuwait.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:00 - ID#280214)
Oris@15:28 and ramifications of Gold, Guns and Liberties
Each community or city neighborhood could do its part in defending its liberties when has it's own militia depot where hand grenades, M60s, APCs, tanks, helicopters, etc are stored and maintained. The key is LOCAL control of that depot - the mayor or sheriff has the keys. And, just as with today's concealed carry permits, responsible individuals may be permitted to securely store heavier weapons at home.
I would love to learn more of the Swiss approach, both past and present, to citizen involvement with the defense of their nation.
If Waco had not gone the way of Masada, but rather if the defenders could have put up a serious fight then Reno may have backed off rather than risk escalating to cruise missiles. These folks were, to the best of my knowledge, generally minding their own affairs {regardless of those outside who objected to those affairs}.
As to Gold and its use as money - eventually Americans may be forced to resort to Gold or a less detectable means of exchange ( since Gold is metal} because free enterprise and personal liberties can not long survive where every transaction is recorded for prying eyes or government & corporate bureaucrats to examine. I do not wish to buy 22 ammo, Jim Beam, Playboy or condoms with a retail chain discount card. I'll pay cash now and, in the future may be forced to buy these items at a local "Liberty Store" where privacy would be ruthlessly protected.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:08 - ID#37463)
Gusto Oro
Thankfully, I am not living on what I started out on 22 years ago although we lawyers don't live as well as some would think. We eak out our meager bread and water much like the next guy. How dare you intimate that I would increase my charge per hour over the last 22 years. Let me see, I am now charging $23.98 per hour. If WJC can lie, so can I.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:16 - ID#29048)
Here is the link again

One of the pages describes how to install support for foreign characters. The support is free with Windows 95, but requires you have the CD or diskettes containing the operating system.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:23 - ID#105135)
Fidelity Select Gold Charts
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Six Year
120 market days
30 market days
10 days Hourly
Overhead Resistance

Election rally almost over, expect no interest rate cut and Equity market to Fall.
Precious Metals & Gold are Second & Third on 90 day regression sector chart.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:35 - ID#25490)
Just ANOTHER lost gonzo.......
I doubt all these characters can be read by the browser fonts, but, the easiest way to get these characters is to buy a Mac. :- ) )

Thanks for posting the Arkansas speach, sorry you had to Bowdlerise it, I hadn't realised some words were still censored at kitco.

Ray Willie is amongst the best, thanks for the linx. Loco Gringo's Lament is primo.. Jerry Jeff's epynomous album got me into this trouble in the first place.

One of the discussions from this morning, about the break-even price for goldmines, reminded me of something Au_Producer told me the other night. He has not mined this past summer, as the POG was too low to allow him to break even.
But, more spectacularly, I remember his phrase:

"I turn gold into iron."

Always buying more machinery to move more overburden to find more gold to buy more iron...

Almost cricket season....

Crusty, you wanna sing along?....
"Jonty Rhodes, take me home
to the veldts of Transvaal.
Orange Free State,
Good Old Joburg,
Take me home, Jonty Rhodes."

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:38 - ID#219363)
Internet Possibilities
Most of the money to be made on the Internet, I mean the real money, not a couple of bucks with your storefront, is to be made on the technology side, pushing the envelope of bandwidth, security, automation, remote data collection, etc. There was a huge call for content last year and the year before, but I think people are quickly finding out that content is abundant, and not nearly as important as popular wisdom would have thought. In the end, the Internet will be like everything else, like phones, like cars, like televisions, and the people who have always made money will continue to make money, and the aggressive companies building their "impossible dreams" into reality will be the next IBM's and GM's. The old saying is true - if it's easy to do, and everyone can do it, then you aren't going to make money at it in the long run. It's easy to set up an ISP, and there are thousands of them, and it's a horrible business to get into. It's easy to set up a consulting firm to design and implement web pages, and anybody can do it, so it's not a good business to get into. It's hard to build a satellite based internetwork in the sky, and so that's the kind of think you have to do to make it. Now, as always, regardless of the Internet, you have to do the thing that is hard, the thing that nobody believes can be done, you have to shoot for the big brass ring and go for it. You have to get creative, take the chance on the long shot, go for the dream that makes people's lives easier, and not just do things because they are easy. Putting together networks with "tinker toy black boxes" isn't going to make money. It's easy, anyone can do it. If you want to make money on the Internet, you have to take it to a place it hadn't thought of going, using resources, talents and energy that the common shop couldn't muster. You have to dig down deep and imagine a world that you would like to live in, and build those things that help the common lot of humanity. The Internet will soon be business as usual, just like the voice networks are today. If you want to make money, you have to step past what's there and build the "next thing", it's the same as it ever was.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:42 - ID#219363)
Internet Possibilities: More
Wanted to add something to my post because it might have not been clear. When I say "real money" I don't mean a couple of million. Anybody can make a couple of million on the Internet if they've got a mind to do it, but to be in it for the long term, the REAL real money, you've got to stretch it, and do the thing that is hard.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:46 - ID#72206)
@ George
Good one.... ggggg

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:46 - ID#35757)
You forgot Timor.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:47 - ID#348129)
@He's Baaaaa---ack
Saturday 14 November 1998

The end is nigh, and no fun


Dr Doom is back. Gloomier than ever. Dr Al Wojnilower, the analyst who forecast the Wall Street crash in 1987, is making the same forecast now - except this time, he expects Wall Street to take the world economy down with it.

In Australia to address CS First Boston's annual economics conference yesterday, Dr Wojnilower said the Wall Street boom of the '90s had been a financial bubble. We were now past the crest of it, he warned, and the impact of the slide ahead would put the brakes on US and world growth for the next two years.

``Every period of prolonged easy money produces financial bubbles such as the present one,'' Dr Wojnilower said. ``They always last longer than you think is possible, but the end is not so much fun.''

Corporate profits in the US had peaked in the third quarter of 1997, he said, and had been falling since, despite growth of 3.5per cent.

``If growth falls to more like 1.5per cent, which I think it will - although the risk is on the down side rather than up - profits will fall more than that,'' he said. ``We have empty buildings in Bangkok and idle factories in Korea. We have both in Japan. We are starting to have empty factories in the US. US personal savings were negative in September. Five years ago, it was 5.5 per cent, but the deficit of the Government has been transferred to the household sector.''

The US merchandise trade deficit was now running at $A35 billion a month, he said. ``It will have an effect on the profitability of US companies. It will have a damaging effect on the rest of the world.''

The worst of the crisis would probably be felt in 2000, but the best hope was that Wall Street might hold out until Japan and Asia had begun to recover.

Dr Wojnilower, senior economic adviser to the private investment firm Monitor-Clipper Partners and vice-chairman of Craig Drill Capital, is used to being a lone voice.

``I have solid credentials as an alarmist on these matters,'' he said. ``I think all human beings have a narcotic attraction to gambling, and those who have that attraction and want to be reasonably respectable do it on financial markets.

``I may sound facetious, but I don't think you can understand financial markets unless you understand that that is their structure. They are casinos.''

Dr Wojnilower blamed the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Dr Alan Greenspan, for not bursting the bubble by raising rates in 1996 and 1997, before it was too late. He said the Fed had been sidetracked by a single-minded focus on inflation in the real economy, failing to recognise the dangers of asset price inflation. Even now, he said, ``US monetary policy is trying to perpetuate the bubble''.

By contrast, he praised Australia's performance in the crisis. ``Through a combination of luck and good management, you really have dealt with it exceptionally well. You have a Reserve Bank management, which is second to none in the world, in my opinion.''

But Dr Doom, as Wall Street christened him for his gloomy predictions, said Japanese monetary policy had contributed to the problem by cutting rates as low as 0.5per cent, which then allowed the hedge funds and mainstream financial institutions to snap up cheap money to invest in the US.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 20:52 - ID#72206)
@ Highhopes
This is war-----Are you trying to tell me that you want to send your kids to defend the right of a bunch of filthy rich Kuwaitis to the oil under their ( Ordained by the British ) sand.. Who all flee their country at the moment of unrest?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:01 - ID#72206)
@ Petronious
P, I just read in our local rag ( right wing, I might add ) , that in Colombia a RIGHT military group is using as the weapon of choice, a chain saw on the peasants... Fear and terror seem to be the weapons of choice...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:07 - ID#25490)
Cargo Cults and the 1998 US Sharemarket Bubble....
I beg to differ. The easiest ( ? ) way to make money on the internet, is simply to sell shares in an internet company, do a quick stag on an IPO.

When I think about it, the current US money bubble from internet stocks has many parallels in history: the Canal company bubbles of the 1790's; the Railway bubbles in England of the 1840's; and later in the US, even in the most famous bubble of all, the South Seas bubble of 1720. We could probably also include the 1929 bubble, but RCA and other radio stocks were typical of that bubble.
All these bubbles are predicated upon an improvement to communications that is believed will also increase trade.

Hmmm, interesting how in the mania phase, the imagined increase of trade also seems to imply an increasingly prosperous society, while the inevitable depressionary phase that follows trade barriers are erected to block trade this is seen as the way to protect prosperity, no?

Better communications: More trade.
Someone remind me: What is a cargo cult?

We have :
( a ) Dreams of prosperity
( b ) Enough education to believe the ( newest ) technology will make everyone happy and rich.
( c ) Examples of the dream, phenomena that are explained in terms of the belief. ( Yahoo/Amazon/MS millionaires )
( d ) Charismatic individual ( s ) who speak convincingly and blaze the trail, and
( e ) Good folk who want to believe that tomorrow will be brighter than today, because of ( a ) - ( d )

Cargo Cults are endemic to human beans...

Incredible Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:07 - ID#266105)

Thanks for the routine posting of the Fidelity gold funds.
Got a position in one, the other or both along with another
sector fund usually. Your site is a handy comparative check
for performance.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:11 - ID#348129)
@Clitton wants to launch the Tomahawk in his pants..........
Saturday November 14, 7:38 pm Eastern Time

U.S. launched, aborted air raid on Iraq - official

( Adds details of canceled raid, military buildup )

By Charles Aldinger

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 ( Reuters ) - U.S. B-52 bombers headed for Iraq with cruise missiles on Saturday but the raid was aborted after Baghdad offered to cooperate with U.N. arms inspections, a U.S. official said.

``It was close,'' the official said, confirming that the eight-engine bombers had taken off but were called back so Washington could consider Iraq's letter to the United Nations. The White House later rejected Baghdad's offer as inadequate.

The U.S. official, who asked not to be identified, declined to say where the bombers had been launched from. But the Air Force is currently in the process of sending 12 of the big Vietnam-vintage jets with air-launched cruise missiles to the Gulf region in a major military buildup.

CNN reported that the B-52s were only an hour from striking when the raid was aborted. The accurate missiles carried by the planes, air-launched versions of ship-borne Tomahawk cruise missiles, have a range of more than 1,000 miles ( 1,600 km ) .

Defense officials, who also asked not to be identified, refused to comment on whether the bombers had been launched but said the United States had been within hours of a major strike on Iraqi targets by several hundred air and sea-launched missiles in action authorized by President Bill Clinton before Baghdad sent its letter to the United Nations.

The U.S. Navy has a submarine and seven other warships in the Gulf area capable of launching Tomahawks.

U.S. national security adviser Sandy Berger later on Saturday called the Iraqi letter offering to resume cooperation with U.N. arms inspectors ``unacceptable'' and said the United States remained poised for military action.

B-52 bombers previously ordered to the area near Iraq are from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. They are to be based at a British facility on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

The United States on Saturday continued its military buildup in the Gulf and was expected to have a force of more than 22 warships and 300 aircraft in the area within two weeks.

More than 50 F-15 and F-16 fighter jets left their stateside bases on Saturday, and 12 radar-avoiding F-117A stealth fighters were to depart Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico for Kuwait later on Saturday night.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:14 - ID#183109)

I just got word from my buddy who interviewed RANDGOLD C.E.O. Roger Kebble Friday. The latest word is that they will wait another 11  days, and then do another split. Initially they will undo this recent 3 for 1 reverse split, doing a 1 of 3 split. They will keep this for the NASDAQ required 3 days, and then do the long awaited 10 for 7 reverse split, with following minor changes.
Due to currency fluctuations in the YEN, they will modify the split slightly to 7.46 shares for every 11 5/8 old shares. The new symbol will be MANGLE on the NASDAQ, but will also be listed on the Vancouver exchange with the symbol HUH.v. Roger said if this symbol is unavailable they will use backup plan number 144 A and go with the symbol DUH.v.

The latest drill results ( phase 4 ) are just starting to come out on MORILA in Mali. The size of the deposit has now been recalculated from 2.2 Million ounces grading 4.89 grams/ton, to a new figure of 14.2 Million ounces grading 16.0 grams per ton. Analysts were disappointed with these figures and thus put out sell recommendations. Their justification was that although Morila will be producing gold at $118 per ounce cash cost within the next two years or so, they anticipate gold dropping to $14 an ounce, thus eliminating all of these dreaded mining companies once and for all.

The Toronto Mint is also reportedly coming out with a new coin called the RANDGOLD MANGLELEAF. Its features will be similar to the Krugerrand, but will proudly display the slogan P.R. Specialistskeeping everyone informed on the backside of each coin.

Mr. Kebble also had excellent news on SYAMA II. Cash costs were down to $246 by September, and were on schedule for producing 270,000 ounces at an impressively low $210 by the beginning of 1999. Again, analysts were less than impressed with one of the lowest cost figures around, and reiterated that SYAMA could be expected to continue to loose money due to the price of gold falling to under $20 an ounce.

On the exploration front, Mr. Kebble reported some stunning finds at the TONGON prospect in the NIELLE permit in the Ivory Coast. He reported on two mineralised zones. The southern zone hosts multiple gold-bearing units within a 100 metre-wide shear, grading 1 to 8 g/t over an 1800 m strike length. The northern zone contains a single gold-bearing unit grading 1,44 g/t over an average width of 22 metres for a strike length of 2200 metres. RANDOLD has established a hurdle rate of 2201 meters ( strike length ) as the go ahead point for production on these impressive finds. Again analysts were unimpressed by these figures, as they felt this massive gold deposit was just too huge for a small company like Randgold to handle. Mr Kebble said he may be forced to sell our interests in these finds for DOLLARS on the PENNY.

He also wanted this to be kept quite for a bit, but said if you promise to keep this from the folks on the internet, Ill fill ya in on a secret. Bill Gates and I have been conducting merger talks for the past several months, and although no firm decision has been reached, there is a strong possibility of a ONE for ONE merger with Microsoft. Intel is also interested in Randgold, and although Intel knows that all gold companies will soon be worthless, they figure they could help out Rangy shareholders a bit by using some of the useless yellow metal in their new upcoming chip, the PENTIUM XIII.

There are also rumors afloat that DURBAN and RANGY will soon merge. The latest Ive gathered from my top-secret sources in the CIA are that it is nearly a done deal. The company will be merged effective Dec 98, with the new symbol DURBY. The head of RANDGOLDs P.R department, Ms. Kathy du Plessis would most likely be appointed CEO. Her plans were to liquidate all the gold assets and venture out into a more exciting sector: HORSE RACING. With a trading symbol of DURBY, how could we go wrong? she stated.

Regarding the S.A. Mineral Rights Package owned by Randgold, Roger provided the following thoughts. The area of these mineral rights consisted of 79% of all of South Africa, and contained an estimated 270 Billion ounces of gold. The problem was that no one was interested in gold, and thus the board of directors recently elected to carry these mineral rights on the RANDGOLD books at face value of $1.

Ill continue to do my best to keep you all abreast of ongoing developments!


(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:43 - ID#433172)
Clinton policies put US between Iraq and a hard place. That's why all the talk.
Clinton needs to shoot to preserve credibilty, but most of the world will give it a bad press. The weaker move is to shoot, good chance he will take that option. Then his troubles really begin. Better he should knock over a 7-11, with a turnip in his pocket.
I understand Saddam is harboring bacterial weapon of mass destruction between his toes.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:53 - ID#300202)
Sasha Trudeau missing & presumed dead
Avalanche-British Columbia. Son of P.E.T.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 21:58 - ID#300202)
News now says Michel Trudeau
Avalanched into lake.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:01 - ID#286230)
Where are you hearing the news?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:02 - ID#300202)

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:05 - ID#31868)

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:07 - ID#210282)
Prophesy site, and a look into the 'future'
SilverBaron: Interesting site. Sometimes one can glean useful bits from such sites, but it is hard to learn from the fire and brimstone parts. I have a firm belief that God ( surpreme being ) is 'color blind' and neutral to the great religions, all of which have been modified in some way or other by their human followers. What is important to know IMHO, is common to all of the great religions -- if it is not common, it may be suspect.

There is no one true religion by definition.

In that context, what I find interesting about this site is the news posts and comments about Iraq and Russia, and the insight into Russia, which the Fatima prophesies also claimed would be a serious threat to world peace. For some reason Saddam has ties there -- had them even with Yeltsin. Russia is likely to be a threat to us -- but not yet. But the warnings are there in what Maybury calls 'Chaostan'. Perhaps one should add 'Serbistan' as the possible site of WWIII -- which may be a smouldering war rather than an outright one -- for now anyway.

I think the greatest threat to world peace right now has to do with Saddam who has his eyes on Israel, and the US. The situation in Isael is deteriorating, in part ( I think ) because the Israelis put some of their defense plants in Palestine. Now -- big time trouble -- hard to move out.

I think Saddam does have weapons of mass destruction, and it does not surprise me that even his own foreign minister does not know this.

I think it is wild that Saddam noticed all of our planes in the air -- B52's etc, and decided to offer a peace plan today -- he will keep up this brinksmanship indefinitely until he wears us down, if we are not careful. I doubt that we are playing him -- he is playing us -- WJC is no match for this sly one. Eventually we will screw up during one of these canceled raids, and bomb something neutral/innocent by mistake. All Saddam has to do is keep the tension going -- for someone like him brinksmanship like this is nothing. He has seen death so many times he is not afraid of anything.

We need to play our hand very carefully with Saddam. We need the best military leaders we have, and the best diplomats.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:12 - ID#300202)
Was just on after watching King Quad/Elvis Stoyko do his triple quad octagonal whatever. Just suckin back on a Wintergarten with Fran & lol
on hearing a Chretien quote advising the Malaysian Pres to relax & have a cup of tea ( after Chretien stirred the pot somehow ) Give us back Joe Who?
Selby - you know who. He's got no chin-but somehow I like da guy. Wine is makin me a leetle bit mealy mouthed. But-he does not have a chin. Jus' funnin. My hair is startin to go also. Still got a chin tho. Nite all.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:16 - ID#45173)
All with a PC XT, but first things first...
Over 1/3 the world's population has never used a telephone. Many tens of millions of Americans can't read. What are these folks gonna do with a PC XT?

The Internet connects the top 5% of the world's population and brings them together. Ambrose Bierce defined distance as the one thing the rich universally and gladly give to the poor to keep and call their own.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:18 - ID#300202)
Tol 1
On behalf of Ted-into ur corner fer not being direct & to da point. What does he err why does he suk?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:27 - ID#210282)
PCXT -- point well taken
EJ: My point is that cost of technology is no longer an issue. Now the hard part is to create the environment where a critical mass of Humans can rise up from their ignorance. What the rich of the world still do not seem to realize is that the Hitlers and others prey on the ignorant and gullible. Then the rich are in trouble. Until there are fewer ingnorant and gullible people around, we will have another antichrist, and another -- until we humans learn.

The rich can run, but they cannot hide -- unless they go to another planet. So -- why not try to break this vicious cycle with the information revolution? I know this will not happen quickly unfortunately.

I have no illusions.

We may have several world wars first -- but if we expect to have a culture stable enough to venture into our galaxy, we will have to address our problems here on earth.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:30 - ID#243100)
Good evening all.
Any comments on gold for a physical buy. Or is it a lost dream, as far as making money.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:33 - ID#31868)
Caper, Namaste' gulps...puffs...quart and a third to ya...Mr. BoJangles...worn out shoes
...baggy pants...o dance...the sky above is my umbrella...peace...comfort and everything that are my Best Dreams to you and yours...yup...I am gleefully the Clown who awakens to sweep the shadow into the Sunlight on your behalf...

yup...uh huh...

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:35 - ID#300202)
Invitation to Chretien as Official Kitco Kop.
Relax & have a Kup of Tea. I gather it had somethin' to do with Lloyd Axworthy visitng a dissident during APEC. Malaysian Pres advised that it cud effect the summit. Subsequent reply by Kretchien....relax-have a.............. Two Cdn Destroyers en route to Malaysia ( loaded with tea )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:41 - ID#286230)
Joe has a chin-- it is just burried. You have to give him credit for not getting caught up in the healthy life style fashion of the '90's.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:44 - ID#210282)
Gold prospects
weiser: Over the next two years or so, there are many factors that are likely to make gold a good buy -- the launch of the Euro will make gold go up -- y2k will make it go up. A WJC impeachment surprise ( if it happens ) will make gold go up.

Problem is -- you cannot buy and hold, unless you are wealthy already, and just want to park your assets in precious metals. For those of us mere mortals who want the leverage of 'paper gold' we must be nimble, as the ups will be mixed with the downs -- due to the eventual collapse of China, Brazil, Mexico -- and possibly even Europe. The US will eventually succumb to the same deflationary plague that is sweeping over the earth -- but we may again be last -- as we were in 1929.

So gold is a good opportunity -- but you had better be skilled in relatively short term investing. If not -- the best thing is probably to slowly accumulate precious or a currency that is known to stand the test of time. Then after all the deflationary collapses are over, gold/gold equities will give us the bull ride of a lifetime.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:46 - ID#45173)
As the price/performance of computer technology continues its inexorable march, the Internet will open to more and more people. However, there is a decreasing proportion of the population with the basic skills required to capitalize on the Internet as a means of increasing one's income and well-being. The culmination of the trend is a three-tier society that Toffler sees developing today: a wealthy information age class, a poor industrial age class, and an agrarian age class living in poverty. When one class goes to war with the other, the Gulf War is the result. The information age society has overwhelming military superiority.

What will burst the Internet bubble? The realization that business doen via the Internet is not incremental. The Internet is a channel of information and transactions. The Internet lowers cost of sale for sales of low-priced tangible goods and some high-priced intagible goods. But are these sales incremental or mearly more profitable? Are L.L.Bean's sales via Internet sales that might have gone to another clothing company that did not have a site or is the audience of potential buyers actually larger because of the Internet? If the New York Times were to be available only online tomorrow, and everyone who might ever want to read the NYT had Internet access, would the NYT's revenues and profits increase?

There is only so much time to be spent reading the news and so much money to spend on shoes.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:48 - ID#31868)
Those who have nothing to offer fear dis-intermediation...
yup...what good is a pencil without a sharpener?

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:48 - ID#341234)
To: Retearivs
Thank you for your analysis. I really do hope the mines are able to put the squeeze on the CB's some day. Hopefully some day soon.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:53 - ID#300202)
Heard enuff. Kaput. Gone ta bed.
CTV just completed last news story re Oxygen Bar in L.A. Puncturvine ( phonetic ) increases testosterone BUT CAUTION-it is pungent. Nytol ( Sorry Ted )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 22:59 - ID#243100)

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:03 - ID#210282)
EJ: I'm curious -- What reason does Toefler give to explain why the US is doing so well in the information revolution, compared to other countries that have a much better record of high level education? I'm not so sure classical education as it stands has all it needs to offer. Things may not be quite as bad as they look.

But I agree with you that there always be a tiered type of human civilization -- survival of the 'fittest' is always a major factor. One of the cornerstones of a 'true' democracy. The trick is to minimize the tiers.

One thing that puzzles me about the internet is that there is virtually no cost for its use, and with a voice modem one can call anywhere in the world, effectively for the charge of a local call -- if the person at the other end has the same software and voice modem.

Unfortunately it does not take much to realize that fees for internet useage will go up when the 'poineer' novelty wears off -- did you know that the phone companies are petitioning to make internet useage 'long distance only'? Apparently the FCC is listening. We are not supposed to worry, as the fees are not supposed to go up, even if we are to consider all calls long distance. I'm hoping that technology improvements and cost reductions will counterbalance this trend.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:08 - ID#228128)
Thanks guys for the heads up on the Carson City silver dollars
I may check out that auction, and who knows, I might get them for a song.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:10 - ID#30126)
For those who like to dwell on the Y2K issue,
How about the week 1024 issue for GPS? ( Coming next summer to a GPS receiver near you )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:10 - ID#210282)
Nite all upover and downunder!
The 'real boss' is pulling me away by the ear! Must keep the peace in the house -- must work tomorrow too! Rats! Perhaps I will get to take spouse on ride in our little boat after work tomorrow. Weather permitting.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:11 - ID#30126)
Let's try that again...
How about the week 1024 issue for GPS? ( Coming next summer to a GPS receiver near you )

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:15 - ID#243100)
tolerantL--- you are the man
I haven't been here for a bit and it's sure warms my heart to read your posts. If you had been there, Clark wouldn't have needed Lewis. Have a great night

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:21 - ID#243100)
Sorry tolerantl
Should be l. I don't write enought

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:50 - ID#243100)
Kitco site rules
I've noticed there is a gap since I posted earlier. I hope I didn't write something that was not acceptable. Hope I didn't offend anyone.

(Sat Nov 14 1998 23:53 - ID#347457)
You can not judge new technologies using current state-of-the-art and rules
Folks, big mistake we are making that we try to judge new technologies using yesterday's criteria. You need to put on visionary hat and think about possibilities, instead of looking at today's limits. Envy is heading right direction. It's not today's internet, internet is just one facet of this new technological trend, it's technology, where it's heading, and our permanent "pushing envelope" farther and farther. Don't judge it by its today's deficiencies, and realize that the Internet is just one small subset of it.

EJ, when Gutenberg came up with printing press and printed the bible, there was just very small number of people in the world who could read, yet, this technology changed the world. At the beginning it was just a bible, however, it was the first time when people outside religion hierarchy got access to it and did not need priest interpretation of God. Does it sound a bit like internet and free access to information without somebody "translating it for you"?

But much better parallel to this technology, and its future possibilities, is car. Some eighty years ago we had first few cars on the "streets". Not too many people could buy it or knew how to drive it. It looked like a toy for a few privileged. Yet, there came Henry Ford, and he made car available to masses. Look what happened. What percentage of US industry feeds car industry? And don't think only about car manufacturers, think about the fact that suddenly people were able to move around, highways were built across the nation, this triggered service industry ( gas stations, motels and restaurants, leisure-associated stuff ) . On the other hand, trucking slowly but surely took over significant chunk of "delivery" from railroads. Cars were turned into farm machinery and productivity of US farmers reached the level never dreamed about. People moved from downtown to suburbs mostly because they were able to commute ( using their cars ) . This reshaped the way we live. There would not be any "supermarkets and shopping malls" if we did not have cars to get there and haul the stuff we bought back home ( not that I like it ) . Well I can continue on and on. It all started with some "silly toy", which was too expensive, nobody knew how to use it, and people were scared of it. Yet, it changed our lives, and it changed our industry and business.

It took some 70 years until car totally changed the landscape, today, it would take less than some 20 years and the same thing will happen, however, the change will be much deeper and significant.