Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

Paul Gold
(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:09 - ID#21484)
Emperor shareholders
An important message for Emperor shareholders will be found at

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:13 - ID#333126)
question: why is APEC focusing on fish and wood?
And so, convenient though it may be for Japan to change the subject, it's dead right in trying to do so: the remark by the Japanese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Miki Kiyoi, that "if the biggest economy in the world magnifies forestry and fishing, this is truly counterproductive" is one of the understatements of the year. For any country -- let alone the US -- to want to spend more than ten minutes discussing Japanese tariffs on smoked mackerel at a time like this amounts to Nero-style fiddling on a grand scale. "

hehehe....... hmmmmmmmmmmm...........

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:15 - ID#317211)
@Steve in TO - Thanks and regards
Before I die, would like to see one good celestial event. They all seem to fizzle or I'm in the wrong place.
Would book a flight to Ulan Bator, but it would surely cloud up if I did.
Don't want to spoil it for others.

Tantalus, Father of Pelops here.
Stooping for a drink of water, but it's out of reach for these thirsty lips. Reaching for the fruit, yet it recedes from my grasp.

My Gold, surging & falling, surging & falling. Perhaps I shan't desire
again. But then, where's the fun?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:19 - ID#304282)
Check out this pyramid scheme!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:24 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...sorry for the delay...speaking to Kentucky
Rene and Rocky...resin on the bow...when the Moon is Full does not measure their Heart's...tears, comfort, good hearted folks...I say let's roust Sheller and his Flock...Yeah...3 and 1  hours I shall be awake againyupHEYShellerthudOne tequila, two tequila, three tequilaFLOOR..

From this part of the Island that is LongCrystal Ball and LadyNamaste..a privilege

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:32 - ID#31868)
Tantalus, Namaste' final gulp, stagger..and a puff...the fun My friend is within the
outstretched arms attached to palms that offer more than they take...

smiling at ya...from the Island that is Long...Namaste'

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:40 - ID#317211)
T#1 - would that I could offer the sweetest of dreams.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:42 - ID#413156)
Mike Sheller With all these high velocity particles heading towards are loving planet and the apparent rumors these could be little green seeds, please be forewarned to look for pods in your backyard over the next few months .I have noticed Kitco to be less emotional lately but my screen is full of smoke and my wires have a strange alcoholic smell. Damn It! Tolerant1.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:46 - ID#249244)
This Russia-Iraq story...seems too complicated
to be true...What if the U.S. did not stop offensive
in 100 hours? Bye, Bye, Saddam...right? Gorbachev did
not have a lot of choice anyway...he had to cooperate.
The interesting element of this story that the U.S. and
West indeed used this Kuwait occupation to cut Saddam's
wings - he was gaining too much strength in the region.
The U.S. had a good idea what is about to happen, but
they let it go, and used this sad a nice precedent to beat the
favorite up...but not to death...Iran and stuff is ( was )
a matter of concern. Saddam sincerely wanted to get Kuwait,
and was "assured" to go ahead...Call it provocation or
whatever...The reason of not using chemical weapons was
pure military consideration - Israel would absolutely
nuke the bastards to the ground level, and U.S. would
probably react in nasty way also. It's quite possible
that Russians told Saddam not to use chemistry....this
SOB might want to be a hero but his own @ss is ( was ) always
precious to him...I'm not saying the U.S. is guilty of
triggering this's just how it was probably done
to neutralize the potential imbalance of power in the

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:46 - ID#153102)
Go vodka. Go pickles. Go gold. Or what you choose.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:49 - ID#249244)
If you are giving me a choice, I'll go to bed, O.K.?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:50 - ID#153102)
@CompuGeek @Studio
Ditto Studio's post on your post.

@Studio I'm highly impressed with your knowledge of the two USA and two Constitutions and the relationship to fixing the roads. You amaze me.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:56 - ID#153102)
Your choices are not mine to give.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:57 - ID#25490)

snipped from ANOTHER part of the WWW. Thought you might be interested in the discussion, though I suspect it's primitive analysis cf your own.


In the quote, "We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal...", what is the meaning of 'self-evident'?

The phrase "self-evident" appears in English translations of Euclid's Elements_ I've always just assumed that the authors of the Declaration of Independence were consciously quoting Euclid's phrase _and_ that they expected readers to recognize it as a reference to Euclid.

Euclid's _Elements_ ( of geometry ) set the pattern for mathematical proofs. Every proof has to start from a set of things that are already known to be true. Each of these things is either something that was proven earlier, or something that is accepted as true without requiring proof. The things accepted without proof are called axioms.

In Euclid's case, he said that the axioms were "self-evident." Some examples of Euclid's axioms are: things equal to the same thing are equal to each other; the whole is equal to the sum of its parts; the whole is greater than any of its parts; through any two points you can draw one, and only one line; two lines intersect in a single point; and ( a famous one ) through a point you can draw one and only one line parallel to another line. The reason why that one is famous is because it doesn't seem "self-evident" at all, and in a sense it turned out not to be true.

Euclid may have thought that his axioms were "really true" ( and really self-evident ) . Contemporary mathematicians would probably say "the axioms are just the rules of the game. We don't _know_ that the axioms are true, we take them as a starting point. So when we're done, we don't know that the theorems are true either. What we do know is that whenever we run into a situation where the axioms ARE true, then the theorems are automatically true, too."

In the case of the Declaration of Independence, the phrase beginning "We hold these truths to be self-evident," is of course illogical. They're not self-evident at all. It's just a fancy way of saying "We're not going to argue about these. All men are created equal and THAT'S THAT." It is a challenging and somewhat aggressive statement. At the time, most monarchs and nobility would have said that it was "self-evident" that they were created _superior_ to commoners, and they were given their just powers by God, not by "the consent of the governed."

I believe the "unalienable" ( note: NOT "inalienable" ) Rights were in one draft given as "Life, Liberty, and Property" and that it was changed to "Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 00:57 - ID#433172)
Good list of golden rules. Confusius advocated the "iron rule" which I like very much. It works in dreams and serves to restrain what can be unfortunate actions.

" Do NOT do unto others what you would not have done unto yourself"

Go gold--down, I'll soon be in the market.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 01:11 - ID#230243)
Some probables about silver.........

GrandMa's sterling service was likely melted down in the early 1980's.
Or how many who might have bought sterling ware since that time would melt it down at $20 bucks per ounce.
It's also said that digital will replace silver in photography in the next 5 to 10 years; but no one considers a global population of over six billion should exist then.
Of these six billion folk some have no desire to learn about technology or even have the funds to purchase or even understand the technology that might provide for the lasting quality of silver based photos.
Then we have cheap cameras that even the less fortunate can afford.
Last with all the paper floating around the globe and all currencies taking their turn at being hammered [more so presently] a silver backed convertable currency might be in store.
This may sound way out, but a secure medium of exchange in in a unsecure world is the right medicine.
I'm saying this without even considering the shorts or the paper longs and possible pandamonium that Ted Butler discussed.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 01:28 - ID#153102)
Phrases penned by giants standing on the shoulders of giants.

It is a proposition, after all, though I don't think it was so far from the premises of English domestic politics as this piece supposes. But the most enlightened proposition ever drafted, I think.

There are two nations in one America. Divided. A House divided. By law.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 01:32 - ID#24135)
Speaking of parasites ..
to all
the rat came back ..

to CC ..
Bless you .. In 1987 .. Harmony was producing up to
900,000 oz .. this fell off to less than 650,000 in
1992.. In 1992 Harmony's reserves fell to less than
4 million oz .. and they were loss making ..
Since 1992 ABX did brilliantly for a while .. AT that
time, their production was only 1 mill oz .. and by
1995 they were up to 3 mill .. and there they have
stayed .. so in the 3 years from 1992 to 1995 they
added 2 mill oz .. and then in the 3 years from 1995
to 1998 they added zip ..
so .. my dear CC I try to answer your questions ..
but you dont answer MIME .. where's the fun in that??

The cash flow for ABX in the MJ shows 819 mil used in
1996 and 368 mill used in 1997 .. hey there thats
a lot of dough .. they dont seem to have added any
net resources .. but as I recall you say they added
the bit on the top of the Andes which only costs
50$/oz to mine ( seems cheap .. I would have thought
it would cost that much just climbing to work ) ..
and the capital cost is $150/oz .. which ties in
pretty well with the dissapearing cash number assuming
its a a 7 million oz deposit .. You say you "get that
back" .. you mean that you deduct the attendant
depreciation on that amount from future earnings ..
.. but if you look at it that way you get your costs
back too .. so lets strike that comment ..
.. Another question .. when "shining path" climbs the
old mountain steals the gold and takes everybody
hostage .. will they continue to pay dividends??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 01:55 - ID#25490)

"But the most enlightened proposition ever drafted, I think. "

You'll get no argument from me over that. The Bill of RIghts of 1688 that first limited the arbitrary Power of the Kings, following the Jacobean revolution was stark and prohibited certain acts of kings. Your Constitution declared the battlegrounds of the next 200 years.....

(Mon Nov 16 1998 01:57 - ID#35757)
All men are equal in as much as they are capable of exercising their natural rights. God created free beings, not automata. This is not illogical. Questions of being and consciousness are much more complex than questions of geometry. Ultimately axioms are taken on faith. Would it be too strong to suggest that faith must preceed knowledge?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 02:03 - ID#220325)
Gagnrad on Jewellery work
I would suggest that you buy or look up these books in the library

The complete metalsmith by Tim McCreight
Davis Publications, Inc
Worcester, Massachusetts

McCreight has a video out also

Jewlery making for schools, tradesmen, craftsment by Murray Bovin
Bovin Publishng
68-36 108th Street
Forest Hills, N.Y. 11375

By th way use Tripoli before Rouge when polishing and make sure you use different wheels for each polish. Clean your work before changing wheels and polishes

Good luck

(Mon Nov 16 1998 02:14 - ID#35757)
In matters human there is plenty of room for 'self evidency'. Is good superior to evil? Is there such a thing as Justice? Is this physical life all there is? Is there a supreme being? Does truth exist? Why is there being instead of nothing? It is tempting to say that the answers to these question is amatter of will. What do we WANT the answers to be? You place your bet and you take your chances.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 02:36 - ID#24135)
Im getting tired of this ...
CC ..
lets forget about depreciation and see what ABX real
costs are ..the numbers I have for year 1997 state
operating and admin at 601 mil= 200$/oz .. taxation @
43 = 14 $/oz .. exploration@ 64 = 21$/oz .. depl&
deprec @ 188 = 63$/oz thus total with depreciation
= 200 +14 +21+63 = 298 $/oz ( this ignores write downs
of 421 mill .. 140$/oz .. similar write downs were
36 mill in 1996 ) .. so I get 298 with depr. and 235$
w/o depreciation.. I used 3 mil oz pruduction for the
year ..

Now lets see what we can come up with for Harmony ..
using 3 months to june ( production 181,800 oz ) and
current exchange rate of 5.75 r/$

operating and admin@ 249.7 mil rd = 237$/oz
taxation@ 4 mill rd = 4$/oz
Other @ 1.7 mill rd = 2$/oz
other non cash 3.5 mill rd ( est ) = 3$/oz
depre @ 15 mill rd ( est ) = 14.4$/oz

thus .. harmony total cost with depreciation
in is 260 $/oz .. with depr excluded .. its
$244/oz ..

so with all capex stopped .. abx shows a 10$/oz
advantage over Harmony .. but in a pinch .. with
gold at 200 .. harmony cuts staff and closes SHAFTS.
ABX has to close MINES in foreign countries ..
with what appears to be monster write down expenses.

now bless you CC .. and go buy ABX .. maybe you see
now why I am not so worried about 200 $ .. ( er
.. only kidding )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 02:44 - ID#153110)
I think you are quite mistaken about the battlefields bit. The French, having no religious tradition of individual, unmediated God seeking, floated the Rights of Man like a fiat currency, amputated their past, and descended to despotic Napoleon. By 1848 the Communards were the rage in Paris. By 1865, property rights were subordinated to an extended Rights of Man in America, an extension which has not anywhere taken root. By 1865 national demoncrazy was loose in the world and socialism, national and international, defined the battlefields.

American government was intended to be like the Swiss Confederation which was venerated by Patrick Henry. But the Federalists prevailed and set in motion the "energetic government" which has produced the consolidated government we have today under Corporate Federalism. In some sense the blood of patriots in the War of Independence was shed in vain.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 03:29 - ID#386245)
I am leaving Kitco FOREVER
unless ALL of you start saying things that I agree with!!!

So there. Nyah, nyah.

I am leaving now...

forever and ever...and ever...and not coming back...ever...

leaving now...forever


until I can get to the fridge and back...

whichever comes first.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 03:38 - ID#24135)
Give me Liberty ..
or give me Harmony ..
was that Patrick Henry ..
.. or Frank Zappa ??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 03:46 - ID#386245)
A great battle is looming...
...between the US$$ and the EMU. I expect that the US Treasury Department shall make a very sophisticated response to this challenge to its worldwide monetary hegemony:

oo$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$o o$ $$ o$
o $ oo o$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$o $$ $$ $$o$
oo $ $ "$ o$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$o $$$o$$o$
"$$$$$$o$ o$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$o $$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ """$$$
"$$$""""$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ "$$$
$$$ o$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ "$$$o
o$$" $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$o
$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$""$$$$$$ooooo$$$$o
o$$$oooo$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ o$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$"$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$""""""""
"""" $$$$ "$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$" o$$$
"$$$o """$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$"$$" $$$
$$$o "$$""$$$$$$"""" o$$$
$$$$o o$$$"
"$$$$o o$$$$$$o"$$$$o o$$$$
"$$$$$oo ""$$$$o$$$$$o o$$$$""
""$$$$$oooo "$$$o$$$$$$$$$"""
""$$$$$$$oo $$$$$$$$$$


John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 03:55 - ID#24135)
These guys are first class ..
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
November 16, 1998

Iraq Outmaneuvers U.S. -- Revealing Fundamental Lack of
Definition in US Foreign Policy

Last week, we wrote that: "Even with political support and
decisive military options [for the United States], Saddam is in
control of events. He can create crises. He can abort crises.
The very geometry of the relationship is asymmetric. The U.S.
cannot deliver a decisive blow against Saddam, nor can it
disengage. This means that Saddam can control U.S. behavior."
This weekend's events bear classic evidence of this view of the

With air strikes imminent, Saddam did what he does so well. He
changed course. Agreeing to allow the UNSCOM inspectors back in,
he seemingly aborted the crisis. This left the United States in
an impossible position. Its position had been that, unless
Saddam agreed to allow the inspectors back in, the United States
would attack Iraq. Once Saddam agreed to allow inspectors back
in, the United States found its hands tied by Saddam's apparent
capitulation. Of course, since practical considerations meant
that there would be a time-lag between Saddam's capitulation and
the return of the UNSCOM inspectors, the commencement of
inspections, and their final, effective completion, the U.S. now
finds itself in a no-man's land between Iraqi agreement and Iraqi

If the United States attacks Iraq in spite of Saddam's
concession, it will appear that the U.S. demand for inspections
was merely a pretext, and that the United States was intending to
attack Iraq regardless of whether Iraq complied with UN
resolutions or not. Saddam would actually welcome an attack
under these circumstances. He is not particularly afraid of a
U.S. air campaign. He absorbed the worst the U.S. had to offer
in 1991 and survived. Current forces allocated to an air
campaign against Iraq are orders of magnitude inferior to those
available in Desert Storm. In short, Saddam has the measure of
the U.S. air campaign and believes he can survive it.

What he is really concerned about is breaking the anti-Iraq
coalition led by the United States, and thereby ending sanctions.
In order to do this he must induce the U.S. to take actions that,
from the perspective of the UN resolutions, are illegitimate.
So, if the U.S. attacks in spite of Saddam's concession, it will
appear that nothing Saddam could say or do, in practical terms,
would deter a U.S. attack. Of course, the U.S. will argue that
Saddam could simply no longer be trusted regardless of what he
promises. However, that would mean that the UN would have to
shift its strategy from compelling compliance to toppling Saddam.
France, China and Russia would all adamantly oppose this shift,
as would most of the Arab countries. Therefore, Saddam would
love the U.S. to attack him this week. It would be of enormous
help to him in his basic strategy of ending sanctions and
breaking the anti-Iraqi coalition.

If, however, the U.S. follows the strategy enunciated by
President Clinton on Sunday and holds off, waiting to see whether
Iraq complies, it has another problem on its hands. The U.S. has
now deployed a substantial portion of its readily available
strike forces. More forces are available, but they require more
time for deployment and the mobilization of reserve forces to
fill out their complement. Clinton must keep his eyes on Serbia
as well as Iraq, and wild cards like a Korean or Indonesian
crisis requiring a U.S. presence can't be dismissed. And keeping
U.S. forces in the region is not as easy as it may look. The
Clinton administration's budgetary policies have affected the
critical logistical support capabilities of the U.S.
dramatically. The U.S. must stand down much of its force well
before serious inspections even begin, let alone conclude. That
will allow Saddam to choose the time and place for the next

In our view, Saddam wins regardless of what the U.S. does. The
central problem is that U.S. policy is completely inconsistent
with U.S. means. U.S. policy appears to prevent Saddam Hussein
from developing weapons of mass destruction. The means that it
has chosen to achieve this end are United Nations inspectors. In
order to compel the Iraqis to submit to inspection, the United
States threatens military action against Iraq. The problem is
that the military action being threatened is incapable of
threatening Saddam's fundamental interests: his regime's
survival. Nor are air attacks capable of destroying weapons of
mass destruction ( WMD ) without inspectors being able to pinpoint
the location of all weapons and facilities with an extremely high
degree of confidence. Thus, if Saddam stops inspections, the
U.S. can't hit WMD facilities. It is forced to hit subsidiary
targets and that doesn't frighten Saddam.

If Saddam develops and demonstrably deploys weapons of mass
destruction, he has a tremendous deterrent force available.
Striking Saddam might then trigger a massive Iraqi retaliation,
one that can't be risked. The irrational image Saddam has tried
so hard to craft, makes such weapons particularly dangerous in
his hands. Once he has them, it will be hard to mess with him.
Therefore, it is in his interest to endure any military action,
any sanctions, so long as his ability to develop WMD is
unhindered. Looked at in this way, Saddam's strategy is
completely rational. He will not permit effective inspections
because they would make his weapons projects vulnerable to air
attack. He does not mind air attacks on most targets, except
where WMD are being developed. Indeed, he will accept such air
attacks if necessary, and use them to achieve his diplomatic

The U.S. therefore cannot achieve its stated end, which is the
use of UNSCOM inspectors to rid Iraq of weapons of mass
destruction. In reality the sanctions regime since 1991 has
neither toppled Saddam, nor has it changed his strategy. It will
not do either in 1998. Saddam would like sanctions ended,
although they are not doing him or his government nearly the harm
the United States would like to think. Thus, the U.S. ends are
completely incompatible with U.S. means.

It is, of course, possible to get rid of Saddam and his weapons.
The United States can invade Iraq. The invasion and occupation
of Iraq would require a force substantially larger than what was
deployed in Desert Storm. This would require a build-up of
nearly a year, including the complete mobilization of reserves.
It would require cooperation from Saudi Arabia and Turkey and, at
a minimum, the neutrality of Syria and Iran. It would require
that the United States accept that it would be operating without
UN sanction, since a Franco-Russian-Chinese veto of an invasion
is almost certain. It would require that the United States
either surround or lay siege to Baghdad, or enter it and fight an
urban battle in which its technical superiority would be largely
negated by the nature of house to house fighting.

Therefore, an invasion of Iraq is not going to happen. Numerous
attempts to topple Saddam have all failed. Air attacks are not
going to bother him. The United States must now develop a new
strategy toward Iraq. Apart from the political courage it might
take to admit that the U.S. is incapable of solving this problem,
there is a deep intellectual problem at work as well. Neither
the Bush nor the Clinton administrations have managed to
enunciate a coherent foreign policy since the end of the Cold
War. And the U.S. has no intellectual framework for evaluating
its foreign policies.

The United States entered the Middle East at the end of World War
II because of its policy of encircling and containing the Soviet
Union with allies. The southern flank of the containment
required two partners: Turkey and Iran. The U.S. managed to
stabilize this flank by the mid-1950s. The Soviets, unable to
break Turkey and Iran, responded by a policy of counter-
encirclement. It focused on Syria and Iraq as potential allies
to threaten Turkey and Iran from the rear. In order to tie down
Syria and Iraq, the United States became dependent on Israel and
Saudi Arabia. In order to control Israel and Saudi Arabia, the
Soviets focused on Egypt and Yemen. Of course, history was not
as neat as this characterization, but the net result was that the
United States entered the Middle East in order to protect the
Turkish and Iranian frontiers with the Soviet Union, and the
ensuing alliances have persisted beyond the end of the Cold War.

The U.S. interest in the region was reinforced because of oil.
With the oil crisis of the 1970s, control of the world's oil
supply lay in the Persian Gulf. If the Soviets gained control of
the Gulf, they would not only break their encirclement, but they
would have the industrialized world under their control. That
was then. Today, the world oil market is very different. Prices
have plummeted because of a massive oversupply of oil. An oil
embargo that cuts the supply of oil to the industrialized world
is impossible today for economic reasons, let alone political
reasons. Even if a single power controlled all of the region's
oil, their ability to coerce the West is simply no longer there.

The United States is now conducting foreign policy by habit.
This is not unusual, particularly in a major power whose
fundamental interests are not engaged and which can afford the
dissipation of power without degradation of its national
security. While not uncommon historically, it is a condition
that is normally rectified if a great power is to retain its
preeminent position. The great danger for the United States is
that the reengineering of foreign policy is frequently triggered
by foreign policy disasters. Without disaster, the power of
unexamined premises and old habits continues to dominate.

In the case of Iraq, of course, even the excuse of habit doesn't
really work. Well before the Cold War ended, the United States
was working with Iraq against Iran. When Iraq appeared to be
getting the upper hand in its war with Iran, the United States
tilted a bit toward Iran, then back, in a fairly skillful attempt
to maintain the regional balance of power with minimal risk to
itself. The United States has been friendly with Iraq ( if not
really friends ) , has been an enemy of Iraq, and has also been
indifferent to Iraq  all depending on political circumstances.

The British had a saying: "Britain has no permanent friends and
no permanent enemies. It has only permanent interests." This
view is the foundation of a mature foreign policy. Saddam
Hussein is no more important than half a dozen other regional
hegemons, some currently friendly to the United States, and some
currently hostile. Each of them has or can soon build weapons of
mass destruction. Indeed, if the real policy of the U.S. is to
prevent the spread of such weapons, then the obsession with Iraq
is poorly conceived, since it uses up resources on one trouble
spot that should be more rationally distributed.

The problem is that the United States can't possibly stop the
spread of these weapons. That isn't an option. The weapons have
already spread. The United States does not have the means for
achieving its end either in Iraq or elsewhere. What the United
States does have is the means to pursue its interests. The
problem that the United States must address is that it is not now
able to articulate a coherent national interest and therefore
cannot pursue a rational strategy. As a result, any regional
power that attracts American attention can create and defuse
crises at will. The problem in Iraq is not Saddam Hussein. The
problem is an American foreign policy that has not been forced by
events to enunciate a national interest.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:02 - ID#185448)
Nick Cocksnbeera


As you are the only one I know with an advanced take of wannabees, I want to give ya this one:
I noticed recently kinda "action" in some of my aussies, which were sleeping for a couple of months. Lafayette mining NL ( LAF - ever heard of?? ) - rising from the death, Spinifex Gold NL ( SPX ) ditto - I already thought about lighting my cigarrettes with SPX-shares, but I think they didnt even print them on paper. Would be even, if the Aussie-Dolor had not performed so poorly. But: There is life in the Hobbits!!

You mentioned the other day your 7 strikes in a row: Now, before you leave for ever: What happened in fight number 8??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:04 - ID#210114)
Beaming In....

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:05 - ID#210114)
Gold of Marginal Interest.

Gold is of only marginal interest to investors at the
moment says Mr Smith. It is, "On a par in fact with
Raymond Chandler's view of literature: to vast numbers
of reasonably intelligent people it is an unimportant
sideline they could do without far more easily than they
could do without coffee or whisky," says Mr Smith

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:08 - ID#386245)
Key dates on EURO changeover
Sorry about that bunch of US$$$. Unfortunately Kitco justifies left, so you missed a great picture.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:20 - ID#258195)
Dabchick Gold Index
At the Open in London gold's value on this Index has fallen back into the 68.0 to 70.0 trading range and currently is at 69.64.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:43 - ID#386245)
G'day Fred
Yes, mate. I have noticed that some of the Aussie juniors have gone from rigor mortis to showing a pulse. I've got a little oil share that has gone up 35% in a week. Have you noticed how the junior golds seem to go UP on gold DOWN days and vice versa? Many of the juniors are now up 20-50% from the bottom. Mind you--they are down 90-95% from the top. A few smart people are accumulating at ridiculously low prices. How long can shares sell for less than cash in the bank??? As usual, the great unwashed masses will see the light after the horse has bolted.

7 strikes??? My memory deserts me, mate. Must have been posted under the influence. cheers, N.

ps--how is the euro introduction going to affect you??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:44 - ID#185448)
Can anybody tell me, where in this world one can buy silver that is not charged with VAT??

thank you

Hey, Nick - angry??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:48 - ID#386245)
No, mate. My tongue is getting too big for my cheek.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:59 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now...
Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 04:59 - ID#386245)
You can buy silver in Oz with no VAT ( at least until July 1999 ) . Send me a couple of million and I will buy it for you. Pre 1943 coins here are 92.5% silver and make good ballast for your boat.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:31 - ID#185448)
I referred to your heart-warming, legendary cock-fight-betting years ago on the Phillie-pines. Story ya posted last week or so.

re the Euro and I
I lose my beloved Schilling that served me well since the day I received pocket-money for the very first time from Mom&Dad.
As firmly pegged to the DeutschMark, it has been real money, as far as one can say that about coloured paper.
Every transaction in the future will be done in Euros, I have to practise some maths, as one Euro is equ8ivalent some 13,5... Schilling. Bank accounts, equity-deposits will be nominated in both currencies from 1.1.99 on, so given one was a millionaire in terms of the austrian Schilling, he is an Euro-beggar after the day of holy sylvester.

Now we will be blended a.o. with Italian Lira and Spanish peseta, and as far as I know from whiskjey-blending - well: I have my doubts, If I will be happy.

And I am unhappy with the name of the new currency. I mean, for you glish-tongued it must sound as it has something to do with abductive body-parts.

I will be happy, when Duisenberg et al decide to give Gold a boost.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:32 - ID#93241)
Come to the states. No VAT here. We've got sales tax though ( same thing I suppose, although it is not national ) . In Ohio, where I make my bullion purchases, bullion coins are exempt from sales tax. There's probably a couple of other states that also exempt bullion, but I don't know which ones.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:33 - ID#185448)
Sorry for the typo:
Wrote: whiskjey
means: w5shgftzey99

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:34 - ID#335190)
International Corporate WELFARE BUMS @ Jobs,Jobs,Jobs EH!(Social Safety Nets????
November 15, 1998

Salomon Smith Barney delays annual bonuses - NYT

NEW YORK, Nov 15 ( Reuters ) - Citigroup Inc. unit Salomom Smith Barney told employees Friday it is postponing a month annual bonus payments, usually a big chunk of an investment banker's annual pay, the New York Times reported Saturday.

November 15, 1998

Japan economic package seen topping $163 billion

The extra budget will also include programs to create about one million jobs as part of government efforts to deal with the country's worsening employment situation, the outline said.

November 15, 1998

Colombia weighs declaring economic emergency

Meanwhile, high rates have hurt the economy. Industrial output has slowed drastically since May, and urban unemployment hit 15.1 percent at the end of September.

November 15, 1998

With aid secured, Brazil battle moves to Congress

But the proposed reforms are, to say the least, controversial, especially as Brazil's 160 million people fear for a recession next year.

Tens of thousands of blue-collar workers have lost their jobs, taking official unemployment to near double digits. Brazil's auto industry, the world's fifth largest, has been hit especially hard as the sector braces for a prolonged slump.

"Sadly, the people are the first to enter ( the crisis ) and will be the last to leave," he said.

November 15, 1998

Mexico defends budget ahead of Congress debate

"We know that it's going to be a difficult process," Deputy Finance Minister Martin Werner told a news conference. "These are tough measures that we've got to take in an adverse international environment in order to protect growth and jobs."

"We members of the legislative branch are not going to become accomplices to another mugging of the Mexican people."

November 15, 1998

APEC-Pacific Rim leaders toting plans to save Asia

Indonesia's top economics minister, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, told Reuters Television on Sunday that Jakarta was keen for funding in five areas including support for social safety-nets and restructuring corporate debt.

Among Washington's proposals are working with Japan and Europe to spur growth, finding ways to help viable Asian companies restructure their debt and asking the World Bank to double its support for social safety nets in the region.


U.S President Wilson signs Federal Reserve Act December 23 1913. History proved on that day , the Constitution ceased to be the governing covenant of the American people.

The December 24 1913 New York Times carried a front page headline "WILSON SIGNS THE CURRENCY BILL" Below it, also in capital letters, were two further headlines, "PROSPERITY TO BE FREE" and "WILL HELP EVERY CLASS"
Who could object to any law which provided benefits to everyone ?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:38 - ID#335190)
(International Corporate WELFARE BUMS @ Jobs,Jobs,Jobs EH!(Social Safety Nets????
November 15, 1998

APEC-Pacific Rim leaders toting plans to save Asia

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:48 - ID#386245)
I will be buying w5shgftzey99 tomorrow. Thanks for the tip.
John Disney--that Global Intelligence Update is an EXCELLENT article.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 05:56 - ID#185448)
thanx for the info - tried to buy kookaburras last week and had to know that the 1kg piece costs exactly double its silver-value.

Has your handle got something to do with tele, jazz and precision? If yes - good choice.

Mike Stewart
(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:01 - ID#270253)
Today will be interesting
Iraq is over for this month, gold was weak on Friday and everything was set up for a big hit for the yellow stuff this morning. Well, I checked at bedtime last night and it was down a buck. This morning it is down 40 cents. This is a good sign. Now we will have to watch to see how the day goes. The 220 day MA has been broken and will now act as support at around $294.50.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:09 - ID#386245)
I bought a 1 kg kookaburra a couple of weeks ago for spot + 5%.Wish I could find more. People are so 'down' on pms that they are nearly 'giving them away'. I expect that in a few years we'll have another 79/80 situation, where people were lined up around the block to buy pms--at any price!!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:21 - ID#329186)
Nick@C ( Fred) ID#386245
re your 06:09 1 kilo Kookaburra ( SILVER ) AVAILABLE @ david Fletcher
P O Box 64

po bOX 64
Telephone 44+ ( 01203 ) 716160
Fax 44+ ( 01203 ) 677985
Accept Visa master etc.
1994 proof 185 1997 proof 225

Its worth to try for discount its quite a bit over spot
uk current 1 kilo bars 120.00
good luck

go gold 7 silver

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:23 - ID#185448)
Thats eggsackly why me wanted to grab some. They were here. Could smell them. But double price? Not me. Will have to keep on using Au as ballast.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:27 - ID#335190)
Corporate Welfare Bums @ Champions of FREE ENTERPRISE (MYTH ? Business Confidence ?
Seniors' Voice

"Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. Power is ever stealing from the many to the few."

Our circulation is throughout the Province of Saskatchewan with a limited distribution across Canada, the United States and the World. Seniors' Voice is published by a group of Non-profit Seniors Organizations.

Our purpose is to inform seniors about the many and varied issues which impact on the sense of well-being of all segments of our society.

We are dedicated to the preservation of our Canadian Quality of Life, which has made Canada the best country in the world in which to live.

We hope that you find the following pages interesting and informative. We welcome your suggestions, ideas and comments.

Number of hits to this site since November 10, 1997 "310"

Seniors' Voice - August 1995 Newsletter

The Corporate Welfare State

The corporate welfare state is not a new phenomenon , despite the notoriety it has achieved only recently.

Unlike its counterpart, the social welfare state, its gestation period has been largely unobserved by interpreters of social events.

And while social welfare legislation has been subjected to the most critical scrutiny as to its costs, benefits and consequences, the attention of Canadians has been deflected from any examination of the other face of the mixed economy, Canadian-style; the corporate welfare state.

The nature of the corporate welfare state has been obscured by the traditional moralizing of big business about the virtues of free enterprise.

While they publicly denounce increased government expenditures, particularly in the form of social welfare, these champions of free enterprise actively lobby the government for increased grants, research grants and tax concessions, and all manner of assistance at the individual taxpayer's expense.

And because they have drawn a sympathetic response from Liberal and Conservative governments, which subscribe to the myth of "business confidence", their appetite for welfare continues to increase.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:29 - ID#72206)
@ 6pak
jobs jobs jobs

translation to english-----

profits profits profits


(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:34 - ID#258195)
Dabchick Gold Index
At the London am fix gold's value on this index has fallen back further into the 68.0 to 70.0 trading range and is currently at 69.39

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:46 - ID#335190)
06:29 @ arby
Jobs,Jobs,Jobs was the only election platform plank of our present Federal Liberal government. And the present Ontario Conservative government also used the Jobs, Jobs, Jobs as their main focus. Jobs for the worker/citizen/taxpayer is a strong motive to vote Conservative and Liberal, or any other political party EH! A worker without a Job is a nobody, right ?

Profit you say. Please define profit.
Profit for the individual ? Profit measured in fiat wealth ? Life's Profit ? Community Profit ? What of VALUE, as a measure of Profit ?

Jobs and Profit EH!

Be Quiet...Consume..And Die.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:56 - ID#26793)
Dollar news from London

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 06:56 - ID#24135)
I think so too..
For Nick ..
They are a bunch of really bright guys..
and they also write very well .. They make
the Economist look very shabby.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:23 - ID#333126)
nick@ kookaburras
Nick, my man, where did you buy a 1kg Kooka at only 5% above spot? coin dealers that I call within Sydney ( well, I remember calling Jaggard's ) quoted me something stupid like A$450 or something like that for the coin.

/me wants a fancy paperweight too :- )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:24 - ID#284255)
What a drama.
Beware when you take your PC over the rollover date.
I wish I hadn't.
Not for what I've lost.
But for the headache I've gained.

I've managed to delete all the stuffed files and format the five partitioned drives.
Off a boot disk, all looks well and scandisk says no problem.

But Win 95/98 recognises a problem and won't load.

Fdisk will not recognise beyond the first partition.
On my #1 PC I have the same config ( 5 drives )
And Fdisk recognises this.

So here lies my problem.

How can I remove/erase this partitioning?

The hard drive works fine.
But somewhere in there lies some code stopping me.

Any suggestions?
Apart from a shotgun or a new hard drive?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:32 - ID#72206)
@ 6pak
Seems to me that Jobs thingy was the free trade mantra----


(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:33 - ID#288466)
Turning point coming up for the XAU this week
From the Fibonacci time charts, 18-20 November could be a significant turning point - the last one on the weekly chart until April.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:34 - ID#335190)
arby @ 7:32
Right On. The Free Trade deal.

Also, thanks for the previous post. Take Care.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:37 - ID#37463)
Joke for the form
Financial news is all the interpretation, just as in the following story:

Sometime after Sidney died, his widow, Tillie, was finally able
to speak about what a thoughtful and wonderful man her late
husband had been.

"Sidney thought of everything," she told them. "Just before
he died, Sidney called me to his bedside. He handed me three
envelopes. `Tillie,' he told me, 'I have put all my last wishes
in these three envelopes. After I am dead, please open them
and do exactly as I have instructed. Then I can rest in peace'."

"What was in the envelopes?" her friends asked.

"The first envelope contained $5,000 with a note, 'Please use this
money to buy a nice casket.' So I bought a beautiful mahogany casket
with such a comfortable lining that I know Sidney is resting very

"The second envelope contained $10,000 with a note, 'Please use
this for a nice funeral.' I arranged Sidney a very dignified funeral
and bought all his favorite foods for everyone attending."

"And the third envelope?" asked her friends.

"The third envelope contained $25,000 with a note, 'Please use
this to buy a nice stone.'

Holding her hand in the air, Tillie said, "So, do you like my stone?"
showing off her ten carat diamond ring.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:38 - ID#288466)
XAU T/A and cycle projections

Market cycles - Comex gold

Cycle projection oscillators & Elliottt wave analysis

User: hixson
Password: thmetal

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:49 - ID#335190)
Food @ China & Devaluation
November 16, 1998

APEC-Japan, China hold key on food shortages-PECC

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - Japan and China hold the key to easing food shortages in the Asia-Pacific region which have been exacerbated by economic crisis, an economic think-tank said.

The Singapore-based organisation said the region had been the world's largest growth market for agricultural and food products until the financial crisis hit in mid-1997.

It said the economic downturn had led to high costs and a shortage of basic foods which had "compromised" social stability in Asia. Investment cutbacks had led to a lack of basic infrastructure which had limited food system capacities while currency devaluations had reduced the ability to import.

The group said any devaluation of the Chinese yuan could ignite another round of devaluations in East and Southeast Asia and cause more unemployment, reduce incomes and raise prices.

China has repeatedly said it has no plans to devalue.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:51 - ID#428218)
One more throw of the dice...............

(Mon Nov 16 1998 07:56 - ID#119358)
@Dear God, I do love Ronnie Reagan, yes.......
and the Duke and Roy Orbison, yes. Now I have come upon the enlightenment of whom Bill Clitton offers the moral equivalent, albeit in political drag......Larry Flynt. yes. penthouse=whitehouse.

Red light on in studioR ( @home studio ) today.......Benny Garcia, one of two ( must include Herb Ellis ) living, greatest, still-got-it guitarists of the big band era. A master of no other...I am very proud to say he allows me to fetch him water to quirst his fire. so lucky.

GO GOLDBUGS!!!! as I must now..........

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:03 - ID#258427)
US$ and Bonds down
US$ down big time in Japan and Europeland. Should be good for gold, n'est pas?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:08 - ID#258427)
In a perfect world
With the US$ down about should be up 1% or ~$3.
Alas...not perfect world...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:09 - ID#335190)
Russia @ Food
13 NOVEMBER 1998

Deputy Prime Minister Gennadii Kulik said on 12 November that he is sending a letter to the EU saying that Moscow is prepared to accept the EU's offer of food aid, Interfax reported.

Under a preliminary agreement, the EU will supply approximately $500 million in food of various kinds. PG

Naina Yeltsin told journalists on 12 November that her husband "feels well" after his vacation in Sochi but is finding it difficult to adjust to the climate change, Interfax reported.

However, one Japanese diplomat who saw Yeltsin up close during the Russian president's meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Obuchi told Western journalists that the Russian leader now looks like "a robot on drugs." PG

Russian government issues written economic plan

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- The Russian government promised Sunday to cut taxes, attract foreign investment, pay its workers on time and hold down inflation -- all measures it said would help lift the country out of economic ruin.

The ruble would continue to float, and the government said it was crucial that it hold inflation down to 30 per cent in 1999.

The government also promised, as it has many times in the past, to begin paying its workers on time.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:42 - ID#335190)
November 16, 1998

APEC-U.S., Japan join to help crisis nations-Gore

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Vice President Al Gore said on Monday the United States would join Japan in an initiative to help crisis-stricken Asia to revive ailing banks, and help debt ridden companies restructure.

"This much is clear, just as the global financial crisis started here in Asia the global economic recovery can and must start in Asia as well,"
Gore said in a speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) meetings in Kuala Lumpur.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:51 - ID#284255)
More Leonids info
Satellites Brace for Space Storm

.c The Associated Press


WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The most intense meteor shower in 33 years is threatening
to sandblast America's multi-billion dollar satellite fleet, including
military spacecraft that provide vital support for the U.S. military
deployment in the Persian Gulf.

On Tuesday, the Earth will pass through the Leonid meteor storm, a cloud
originating from the dusty passage earlier this year of comet Tempel-Tuttle.

A blizzard of meteor particles, some the size of sand, but mostly smaller,
will rain down on the planet for about 10 hours. The most intense part of the
storm peaking at about 2:45 p.m. EST.

There's no threat to people because the space particles burn up in the
atmosphere before reaching the ground. In fact, in Asia and the western
Pacific, where it will be nighttime, the storm will create a spectacular
celestial show of light streaks and ``shooting stars.''

But in the vacuum of space, where the nation's satellite fleet orbits the
earth, particles from the Leonid meteor storm will flash past vulnerable
spacecraft at more than 155,000 miles an hour. At that speed, a small grain
can have the destructive force of a .22-caliber bullet.

The most likely damage could be electrical. The high speed impact of a tiny
meteor creates a sudden electrical discharge that can cause the satellite to
short out. If the electrical charge is big enough, it could permanently
disable the craft.

Actual collisions are expected to be rare, but operators of some 300 U.S.
military, commercial and scientific satellites are crossing their fingers.

``We rate the possibility of anything catastrophic as being minimal, but we
can't rule it out,'' said Air Force Maj. Perry L. Nouis of the U.S. Space
Command at Peterson Air Force Base, Colo., the mission control center for the
nation's 150 or so military satellites.

He said military experts estimated that one or two of the world's 600-plus
satellites will be destroyed by a meteor during the Leonid storm.

Nouis said that all the U.S. military satellites will continue to operate
through the meteor storm. The satellites facilitate communication, navigation,
surveillance and missile warning worldwide.

With American forces in the Persian Gulf poised to attack Iraq, there is a
heavy demand for the satellite services, but Nouis said ``we are prepared to
carry out our mission'' through the Leonid storm. Even if a single craft is
lost, he said, there are back-up spacecraft for each system.

Among the satellites most at risk are communications satellites, typically
stationed at 22,300 miles above the Earth, and the Global Positioning
Satellites which are 11,000 miles out.

``Those satellites pretty much have to fend for themselves,'' said Nouis.
``The defensive measures have to have been built into the systems.''

Most U.S. military satellites have been ``hardened,'' shielded against the
effects of nuclear radiation. They are expected to withstand all but the most
unlucky hits by the speeding meteors.

The 22 satellites controlled by NASA, however, are more vulnerable.

``We are taking some precautions with all of them,'' said Phil Liebrecht,
chief of the satellite control office at the Goddard Spaceflight Center.

Six $500 million Tracking and Data Relay System satellites will alter their
position so they present the smallest possible target to the speeding meteor

Liebrecht said other satellites will rotate solar power panels so that they
face the storm edge-on.

And other spacecraft will be powered down for at least part of the 10-hour
passage through the Leonids.

Liebrecht said NASA is most concerned about two satellites that are stationed
one million miles from the Earth toward the sun. Both craft are designed to
study the sun and were placed where they get the best view. Now they will be
in the most intense part of the Leonid meteor storm, he said.

``It looks like there is about a one percent chance that they will get hit
and have something go wrong,'' said Liebrecht.

All high voltage instruments on the two craft will be shutdown to minimize
the risk of an electrical short. Solar arrays will be rotated to a protective

For NASA craft in lower orbits, such as the Hubble Space Telescope, the odds
of damage from a meteor impact are calculated at about one in 10,000,
Liebrecht said.

Even so, the Hubble, filled with delicate optics, will be turned so that its
back is toward the Leonids.

Meteor showers from the dusty wake of comets are fairly common. In fact, the
Earth annually crosses the path of Comet Tempel-Tuttle and encounters the

What makes this year exceptional is that Tempel-Tuttle sped passed the
Earth's orbit last February, leaving behind a fresh wake of dust and gas. This
only happens every 33 years.

Liebrecht said that the last time Tempel-Tuttle went by, in 1966, it left an
even denser path of debris, setting off a spectacular show of shooting stars.

At the time, though, the space age was in its infancy and only a handful of
satellites orbited the Earth.

AP-NY-11-14-98 1310EST

Copyright 1998 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP
news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise
distributed without prior written authority of The Associated Press.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:51 - ID#288466)
Gold Newsletter article on Durban Deep November 1998 Special Edition
I now have scans made of this article....if anybody else wants a copy via email, let me know & I'll send it out to you.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:53 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 176.645 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 295.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 13 Nov 1998 ) : 178.546 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 13 Nov 1998 ) : 297.100 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 13 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0731 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 13 Nov 1998 ) : 5.1275 US Dollars

(Mon Nov 16 1998 08:54 - ID#284255)
J Stack
Technically, it was all downhill this week.
First, every single day saw declining stocks outnumber advancing stocks on
both the NY and NASDAQ exchanges. This rally has "bear market trap" written
all over it.

How this unwinds depends heavily on investor confidence... which is resting
squarely on the Federal Reserve. Overwhelming consensus on Wall Street is
still for another rate cut at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. But short-term rates
are NOT forecasting a rate cut, and bond yields have been rising while the
Dollar's been falling ever since the Fed starting easing. Personally, we'd
lay odds of a rate cut at only 1-in-3. And if rates ARE cut, it will show
just how truly scared the Federal Reserve is.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:04 - ID#31868)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...check your email
that would mean right about now eh...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:05 - ID#288186)
Good morning....Dec gold traded down to 295.30 support in overnite hours.
If it can maintain this level, and if the dollar stays down, we may
be setting up for a significant rally in the PM's. IMHO

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:10 - ID#35571)
Placer Dome risk insurance

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:11 - ID#288186)
The U.S. dollar is down 2.2 to the yen. C'mon Gold! This is your signal! Get
your yellow butt in gear...

The Hatt
(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:13 - ID#381261)
The Last Time!
The threat of military action was diffused gold fell $3.00 the next day so watch out for an immenent breakout. It appears that the EU decision was indeed the contributing factor to golds latest move!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:13 - ID#35571)
Gold in narrow range

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:15 - ID#31868)
stu...stu...STUDIO_R, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya...and ya fergot to mention
Charlie Dunn, boot maker and all around Great me your phone number...o'tay...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:15 - ID#339274)
FWIW The XAU tripline is 77 Weak opening,we can see this
number the first half hour.Same for NEM at 22.
I would err that we hold the uptrend line,as plat is turning
positive.We'll see

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:16 - ID#320202)
should be interesting monday
FWIW : all european exchanges nicely up, nikkei up 160.06 US $ down, Gold down, I have the feeling gold will not stay down for long !

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:22 - ID#35571)
Gold moving up to hype XAU for the opening

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW This little puppy has given a nice buy signal.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:37 - ID#344255)
Gollum, have you been trained on rocket flying? We need an astronaut to
drive the DOW to the MOON today. Algore promises Zillions to everyone, Japan announces a cure-all with tax cuts, Saddam really backs down THIS TIME for sure!, and by golly Alan will drop interest rates tomorrow ( he better or we'll see Black Tuesday tomorrow ) . Tighten your seat belts, this just has to be interesting. Not a clue what gold will think about all of it. Chances are it will drop as the DOW skyrocket, and drop again with the crash.......

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:41 - ID#339274)
FWIW bought NEM 22 1/8 stop 21 3/4

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:42 - ID#35571)
Actually I was thinking of just kind of playing on my see-saw today.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:42 - ID#288186)
Cowgirl; Actually, I think gold will go UP the next time the dow heads really
south...Gold is starting to WAKE UP! This time around, the flocking
to a "Safe Haven" will be more to the PM's!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:45 - ID#430221)
@ Silverbaron's mention of newletter on Durban Deep.
Not to say Durban Deep isn't a great buy - but just be aware that that newsletter was sent out specially - not a regular one - that it talks exclusively about Durban Deep and that it has the little fine print at the bottom saying the writers hold positions in the stock they are talking about. So it's publicity for that company only - specially made up and probably paid for. As I said though, it makes good points about the stock which is probably just as good buy as they say.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 09:53 - ID#288466)
I agree. It has been used as a mass-mailing, twice. Caveat Emptor, as usual.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:03 - ID#33184)

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:08 - ID#339274)
FWIW buy signal

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:12 - ID#335190)
U.S. Industries operating @ 80 % Capacity
November 16, 1998

U.S. economic output fell in October

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - U.S. industrial production fell for a second straight month in October, the Federal Reserve said Monday, as businesses ran at their slowest operating rate in more than six years.

A day before U.S. central bank policymakers meet to consider trimming interest rates, the Fed said total industrial output declined 0.1 percent last month after a revised 0.5 percent September drop.
Industries' operating rate dropped to 80.6 percent of capacity, the lowest since 80.2 percent in September 1992, in a further indicator that inflation pressures were muted.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:12 - ID#339274)
FWIW with increased volume

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:16 - ID#288186)
Dec Gold hit high of 296.50//currently at 296.40//The dollar is down 2.76
against the yen and down .016 against the D-mark.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:23 - ID#335190)
Democracy & Corporate Bailouts @ We The People EH! Overseas Private Investment Corp, U.S. Agency??
November 16, 1998

Japan, U.S. announce plans to fight financial crisis

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP ) -- The United States and Japan announced proposals today to pump an additional $10 billion US into troubled Asian economies to help lift the region out of its worst economic crisis in decades.

The package of new proposals would include $5 billion in new support offered by the United States, and the creation of a $5-billion joint initiative supported by the United States, Japan, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

The remaining $2 billion will provide loan guarantees through the Overseas Private Investment Corp., a U.S. agency, to support private business deals.

Gore said there were growing calls for democracy in many countries. "We hear them today, -- right here, right now -- among the brave people of Asia," he said.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:25 - ID#335190)
Japan, U.S. announce plans to fight financial crisis

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:26 - ID#288466)
Advanced GET wave analysis of DM

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:31 - ID#31868)
EnviroWhore Gore is a wit...a very...very...very dim one...
yup...uh huh...sheesh...Jack's asses like him are running things...HA!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:34 - ID#288186)
Silverbaron; Thanks for the info. I have been going to the DeSario site each
day to see his take on Elliott Wave analysis. He thinks that since we broke above 296.10 last week, we should be heading up soon in the gold market...hope I spelled his name right. Goin' from memory...Go to
go! BBL. See ya!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:34 - ID#268233)
No History
On my screen, the check boxes allowing selection of past discussion time periods do not appear. Are the rest of you experiencing this as well or is it just me?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:35 - ID#31868)
DJ, Namaste'' Gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...I am not having that
problem...try refresh on your browser...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:35 - ID#268233)
Cancel that. They're back.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:39 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold NEM 22 1/4

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:45 - ID#290202)
At current rates, how many US$ to make one SDR?? At current rate, how
many Euros to the SDR??? .....Projected rates??....ergo, @ 35 SDR/oz
POG is.....?? What is the reasoning behind the disparity??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:46 - ID#258195)
Dabchick Gold Index
At the London pm fix gold's value on this index has fallen back further into the 68.0 to 70.0 trading range and is currently at 69.15

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:46 - ID#45173)
New Poll on Rates
Will Greenspan lower rates tomorrow? Please vote with the link below.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:50 - ID#339274)
FWIW short NEM 22 1/8 stop 22 3/8

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:52 - ID#320202)
I had the honor to vote first, I believe it would be absolute folly on AG behalves to lower the interest rates

(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:55 - ID#335190)
Japan..No One In Charge @ Recession could become a DEPRESSION ?? (Taiwan & China

China, Japan Cloud Taiwan's Horizons

TAIPEI ( Reuters )  If any economy stands out among Asia's financial turmoil, it is Taiwan's.

The hard-driving democracy is chugging toward 1998 economic growth that, while well below target at between five and six percent, simply blows away wheezing rivals like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and even Singapore.

To stay competitive, the Taiwan dollar has slid in sync with the yen -- losing about 20 percent against the U.S. dollar since the crisis erupted in mid-1997, compared to falls of 35, 50 or even 80 percent for rival Asian export currencies.

But currency risks pale beside worries of seeing simply no one in charge in Tokyo just as China's clout is swelling.

"Taiwan's Japan problem isn't the yen," said Peter Kurz, who runs Merrill Lynch's Taipei office. "Taiwan's real Japan problem is that Japan has no government and has no clear solution for dealing with massive banking system debts..."

More years of Japanese stagnation would be bad enough, but the remote prospect of bold new leadership also worries Taiwan, which fears that over-strong medicine for Japan's economy could push its recession into full-blown depression.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 10:57 - ID#33184)
FOMC rate cut
The stock market is hovering around 9000 on hopes of a rate cut, yet the bond market is down. The bond market is very sensitive to interest rates, and is usually the most accurate in its prediction of them. The currency market is following the stock market's suggestion of a rate cut as the Dollar continues to be under pressure across the board.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:01 - ID#339274)
FWIW Xau heading to 75

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:12 - ID#147201)
Sharefin and the crew
My damn email is messed up. I'm after ISP, but can't send or receive?? I am calling the goldsmith. Just keep trying and probably later it will be okay.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:14 - ID#45173)
I agree with you. However, he's painted himself into a corner. As Tice says, the financial markets now drive the real economy, not the other way around. I don't blame Greenspan for this. If he had raised rates before, then the slowdown at hand might be a recession by now. Now, with confidence returned, dropping rates will fuel the bubble with excess liquidity. On the other hand, Greenspan has witnessed how quickly market players "disengage" ( read: panic ) when confidence in financial markets falls significantly. What's the Czar of the World Economy to do?

Greenspan thought he'd signed up as a Central Banker and winds up in the role of Central Planner. Given his Ayn Rand roots, this has got to be bugging the hell out him.

The stock market is not rising with conviction today. The Fed has done a good job over the past few weeks at keeping their signals on rates ambiguous, thus the market has moved more or less sideways. Had the Fed been less than ambiguous, I'm sure we'd have seen the DOW close to 9400 by now, then it'd drop like a rock even if the Fed did drop rates less than hoped.

My guess is that Greenspan has hoped for a DOW to not rise too high so that it would not have so far to fall when he does not lower rates.


(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:14 - ID#219363)
Regarding a joke I made this weekend that didn't go over very well ( similar to a joke Rich told that got Kitco upset for a few weeks ) , I'm not leaving forever. I've just banished myself from Kitco in a self-imposed Internet exile, I'm thinking until next weekend should be enough, then I'm allowing myself back *grin*. It was all in an effort to stop an argument before it even started as one of my comments offended at least one person and probably more, it seems to have worked as I haven't heard any other discussion about it. See you guys this weekend. Thanks to everyone, Kitco rules.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:16 - ID#33184)
United States - Increased Scrutiny
Heading for the US soon? Don't be surprised if you are subjected to
increased levels of scrutiny when you arrive. The Immigration &
Naturalization Service ( INS ) is conducting a second inspection of up
to five inbound international travelers - per flight! The subjects of
this closer observation will be selected at random at ten major airports.

The INS say that the exercise is to establish how effectively INS
agents are detecting illegal aliens. However, it is highly likely
that most of those picked out will be bona fide, innocent visitors.
Each second inspection will include a "detailed review" of your
documentation and personal effects.

If you choose to travel to the following airports, there is a chance
that you will fall prey to this INS random observation - New York,
Miami, LA, Dallas, Washington Dulles, Detroit, San Juan, Seattle,
Phoenix and St. Louis.

Source: OPC newsletter

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:29 - ID#224250)
someone please post the quote.con quick charts URL

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:32 - ID#290172)
Savage--I'm waiting for data, but here is the latest on hand
11/12/98:SDR:XEU=1.1868 and XEU:SDR=0.84259
11/12/98: SDR:USD=1.3837 and USD:SDR=0.72271
Gold in SDR ( 11-12-98 ) 212.80

One builds 'projected rate" boxes by comparing SDR-Raw with SDR RAH [the gold sdr, 0.888671]

The gold sdr is not tied to ANY currency but is a specified measure of gold. [The old BW 'dollar']

I'll post some 'boxers' when the latest data arrives, OK?
Reason behind disparity-Potemkin Prosperity. One can do a number of wonderful things with say, foreign earnings, when they are processed through the currency maze.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:34 - ID#212323)
Assistance please...
Request that someone post text or link to Roosevelt's 1933 Executive Order calling in gold coins.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:35 - ID#288466)

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:37 - ID#288466)
Aragorn III
I may have this document at home ( where I will be shortly ) . If you have a fax #, send it to me & I will fax you what I have.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:38 - ID#339274)
temp bottom
FWIW covered NEM 21 5/8

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:46 - ID#339274)
FWIW time and price will square the next half hour for the XAU

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:46 - ID#212197)
@John Disney (These guys are first class ..) from 3:xx a.m.
Thanks for the excellent analysis posted by:
John Disney ( These guys are first class .. ) ID#24135:
Copyright  1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
November 16, 1998

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:47 - ID#212323)
Silverbaron...much obliged.
But, digital would be more convenient. Hopefully someone will soon produce it "on-line", so I'll remain patient. Allow me to rely upon your offer as a last resort. Thanks for the prompt response. Let me know if I can return the favor at any time. --AIII

(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:53 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 176.645 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 295.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 175.820 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 294.850 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0085 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 16 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0350 US Dollars


(Mon Nov 16 1998 11:57 - ID#147201)
SDRer re ECU gold content
When you post, please make it clear what the gold content for the Euro is. I have 3 different numbers. Are they clear where this stands??? Thanx, Charlie

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:14 - ID#339274)
FWIW bought at 21 11/16 stop 21 3/8

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:18 - ID#119246)
Aragorn III......GOT IT!
Buried in the text of this one:Swiss America: The Right to Own Gold

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:19 - ID#24135)
overkill ??
For CC ..
if you take my numbers for harmony and use 6Rd/$
instead of 5.75 as I did, you will find that Harmony's
costs are slightly less than ABX with depreciation
excluded for BOTH companies .. ie about 233$ for
Harmony and 235 for ABX.. Bless you and God be with

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:25 - ID#194311)
Will US want weapon inspections in Israel?
This development is an affront to the entire non-Jewish population of the world, conceivably they could create a disease to ensure that they are indeed the "chosen ones", by their own decree.....I feel ill. I'm not anti-seminitic or racist but this is seriously worrying work needs an airing.

Israel wants 'ethno-bomb'

LONDON, Nov. 15 ( UPI ) -- There are various publications supporting the
claim in a British newspaper that Israel is working on a biological
weapon that will target its victims by their ethnic origin.
The Sunday Times published its report today based on what it
described as Israeli and western intelligence sources.
But the so-called ``ethno-bomb'' claims have earned further credence
in Foreign Report, a publication by the Jane's organization which
monitors and reports on security and defense matters.
Foreign Report in October cited unnamed South African sources saying
Israeli scientists used South African research in a bid to develop an
``ethnic bullet'' against Arabs.
Foreign Report says Israelis discovered specific aspects of the Arab
genetic make-up that could be used to produce such a biological weapon
by researching ``Jews of Arab origin, especially Iraqis.''
The British Medical Association has become so concerned about the
lethal potential of genetically based biological weapons that it has
opened an investigation, which is due to report in January.
The report in today's Sunday Times says Israeli scientists are
seeking to identify genes to produce an ``ethno-bomb,'' that would kill
through a genetically modified bacterium or virus.
According to the British news report, the intention is to use the
ability of viruses and certain bacteria to alter the DNA inside their
host's living cells.
The Sunday Times report says ``The scientists are trying to engineer
deadly micro-organisms that attack only those bearing the distinctive
A spokesman at Porton Down, Britain's biological defense
establishment, acknowledged last week that such weapons were
theoretically possible.
The spokesman said, ``We have reached a point now where there is an
obvious need for an international convention to control biological

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:27 - ID#224250)

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:37 - ID#212323)
Thank you, Silverbaron.
I shall endeavor to return the favor some day, my friend.
On March 6, 1933, using provisions found in Section 5 ( b ) of the Trading
with the Enemy Act of 1917 [The Trading With The Enemy Act was passed In
1917. This legislation is still in place.] Roosevelt began his assault
on a citizen's right to own gold. Its article 5 ( b ) states that:

"The President may investigate, regulate or prohibit, under such rules
and regulations as he may prescribe, by means of licenses or otherwise,
any transactions in foreign exchange for the export, hoarding, melting,
or earmarking of gold or silver coins or bullion or currency."

Americans awoke to find that their bank accounts and assets had been
frozen by government decree. In this, his first "official" act in
office, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had declared a banking
"holiday" and issued the order to confiscate gold: Gold owners were
bullied and compelled to turn in their gold for freshly printed paper
dollars. Within months, the gold backed U.S. dollar, the strongest
currency in the world since 1792, was no more. The following is a
reprint of Roosevelt's Executive Order ( dated April 5, 1933 ) :

Executive Order: "By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section
5 ( B ) of the Act of Oct. 6, 1917, as amended by section 2 of the Act of
March 9,1933, in which Congress declared that a serious emergency
exists, I as President, do declare that the national emergency still
exists; that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by
subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to the peace, equal
justice, and well-being of the United States; and that appropriate
measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our

"Therefore, pursuant to the above authority, I hereby proclaim that such
gold and silver holdings are prohibited, and that all such coin, bullion
or other possessions of gold and silver be tendered within fourteen days
to agents of the Government of the United States for compensation at the
official price, in the legal tender of the Government. All safe deposit
boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed, pending
action in the due course of the law. All sales or purchases or movements
of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its
territories, and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such
metals across the border are hereby prohibited."

"Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintenance of a
safe-deposit box to store them is known to the government from bank and
insurance records. Therefore, be advised that your vault box must remain
sealed, and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the
Internal Revenue Service."

By lawful Order given this day, "The President of the United States."

On March 9, 1933, Congress rubber-stamped retroactive legislation titled
"The Emergency Banking Act" which, in fact, had little to do with
banking and much to do with the private ownership of gold. Ownership of
gold was now considered illegal. Criminal penalties for "hoarding" were
imposed calling for a maximum $10,000 fine and 10 years in prison, or
This has more holes than Swiss Cheese. What are the meanings of words, exactly? You have heard Bill Clinton give testimony, no?

John Disney
(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:45 - ID#24135)
Germs R Us
to kiwi ..
I predict that the next guy who complains about
the Israli ethno-blaster will be called anti-semetic
racist and an all round nasty guy .. just shut up
and eat your bacteria ..

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:48 - ID#194311)
SDRer....London PM fix $294
Right on the money!

You should start a weekend advisory for all us sailors on the high seas.

Has this been a pattern after weekend "adjustments" for long?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:49 - ID#45173)
Wrong again, chief
Last chance for Iraq, says U.S. defense chief

WASHINGTON, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - Defense Secretary William Cohen
said on Monday that the U.S. military will strike Iraq without warning if
President Saddam Hussein breaks his promise to cooperate fully with
U.N. arms inspections.
Stike without warning? Duh. When inspectors begin to leave again, that will be the warning Iraq needs. Iraq will hold them hostage. Just how stupid are these guys, anyway?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:54 - ID#333127)
71-72 is my buy range,getting close.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 12:59 - ID#339274)
FWIW We should have a nice run up

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:06 - ID#30345)
Iguess it is time for all good men to buy a large safe and cover it with concrete.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:09 - ID#413156)
Who can beat the paste boys ?
Today the winner is John Disney 1957 words and 214 lines with sharefin far behind with 869 words and only 120 lines. Life is such a boring existence without crayons.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:11 - ID#194311)
JTF...Not gold
Hmmm, you really are digging around in there aren't you. Quartenion calculus was Hamilton's baby and never really took off, too much non-commutativity. There have been some fairly recent works along the same lines, indeed you can write the four Maxwell equations as one equation using the so-called Geometric Algebra, a generalisation of quaternions.

Here's a good starting point, back at that womb of good physics the Cavendish laboratory in Cambridge, jolly cold England.

A good read is the paper "Imaginary Numbers are not Real", just when you thought you knew how to multiply vectors...think again, here it is shown how to formulate Maxwell's equations as one equation and also that the Pauli and Dirac formulation for particle physics are merely sub-algebras of a more general algebra.

Also a more detailed book is "Space-Time Algebra" by David Hestenes.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:19 - ID#194311) shot at Euro-POG revaluation
If one "was in the know", wouldn't one keep this information fairly close?

Now it comes back to the game of the less people who know the bigger the profits for the few, given that the revaluation is a done deal. Quite the opposite of bull run-ups in stocks where the louder the shout the better the chance of success...talking heads, CNBC, etc. Here the trick is to keep it quiet and ACCUMULATE slowly at the lowest price possible, the revaluation will happen by decree, a much more subtle and savoury way to make gains. Von Flinck is a loudmouthed pawn, Buffet was "outed".

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:21 - ID#237299)
Aragorn III: Gold confiscation
Within the findings of this text, are a rich collection of the proclaimations involved and some of the congressional intrigue as well.
I saved it long ago but have yet to wade through all of it.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:23 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold NEM 21 5/8

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:31 - ID#194311)
All...smoke and mirrors in the casino
Anybody seen the "Got Milk?" ad with the guy in a hall of mirrors with a mouthful of cookie crumbs or something equally dry.
He runs about smashing into mirrors grasping at illusory milk offerings.

The analogy is near perfect, the investor in the global casino rushing about grasping after illusory "money", smoke and mirrors confounding the pathetic, ever thirsting for something real.

"Got Gold?"

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:33 - ID#30345)
@100 Euro cion
If the 100 EURo coin is made its will probable be .15 oz of .5 fine gold. This would contain approximately 15 euros of gold. At the same time if the US was forced to back the dollar wit hgold reserves. The y might do so with a subsantailly lower ratio say 7.5% this could easily drive the POG to the $3500-5500 area. Off to St. Louis...

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:38 - ID#33182)
Regulus - I came last with one word which was 9000 !

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:44 - ID#35571)

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:46 - ID#339274)
Buy signal
FWIW bought 21 9/16

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:47 - ID#339274)
turned positive

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:52 - ID#258269)
A special thanks - is was appreciated very mich

(Mon Nov 16 1998 13:59 - ID#212197)
EURO Acceptance is growing in Europe
A friend of mine came back from a three week visit in Germany. He said he found a lot of restaurants, even small ones, which already printed their food prices in DM and EUROs. In general he said, people take the Euro as a given.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:01 - ID#298259)
GSR...check out that volume...
18 times avg volume at 2.876 million shares traded and my order at 1 1/4 still hasn't gone through. Any one know what's up?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:11 - ID#266105)
on the record

Interview NICK GOODWIN - 16 November, 1998

AH: Well, we now cross to our Gold Guru, Nick Goodwin. Nick, you called it right. I actually put your record to the test a little while ago, had a look at exactly all the calls that you'd made this year, wrote an article for the column I have every two weeks in Business Day, and it came out there. You called it right this time as well, down from 10.50 - the index down to 9.50. Now the index has perked up a little. Time to buy again?

NICK GOODWIN: I think last Thursday, at the close, I got a phase three buy-signal. We've had two so far. The first one was in March, when the index was at 680, and then we got a sell at 10.50. It was a full 54%
improvement. The second phase was in August, when it hit 8.20. I think I was here as well. And I got sell at 1300. That was a 60% improvement - so those two were 114% - and then we were waiting for it to come down. I first spoke about 10.50 and later on at 9.50, and it actually got down to below 9.50 last week and I thought that maybe 900 were achievable, but it suddenly turned around. So on Friday morning I had this third buy-signal and the index on Thursday was 967; so we're into phase three now. I think this run could take us to the 1400/1500 area. I can't time it, as I've explained to you in the past, but basically, it's a very good area to buy
into and we must just stay with it until we get another short term sell.

AH: So we can go out tomorrow and buy some more gold shares?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I would say so.

AH: Which ones in particular?

NICK GOODWIN: I just want to say something about the gold price. The gold price was on a downtrend since 1996, from $400 to a 278 level, but recently, the trend has turned around. I've got a system, which works out
the trend in the gold price, and the trend has turned around. This trend generally lasts for about two years, so I think we can see a rise in trend. I can't say what rate it will be, but it is certainly upwards, so that's also very positive for the gold market. I think we've got a rising trend, and don't ask me why the gold price is going up, because I'll tell you after the event. Just as far as a portfolio goes, I think this is important for investors - the current portfolio that I would go for would be the following - Anglo Gold 20%, Gold Fields 40%.

AH: Now that's interesting - you in the past have called both Anglo and Gold Fields 30% each. Why the change?

NICK GOODWIN: I think Anglo Gold doesn't have as much to benefit from in the future run as Gold Fields. Gold Fields Mines are still much more marginal, and there's also a lot more improvements that can come in
Gold Fields Mines. Anglo Gold has basically had a lot of improvements already, so I don't see much greater improvements to come through there, so I think that Anglo Gold shares could lag Gold Fields a bit. Those are
still the majority holdings there, which are 60% of the total, and then 10% to each of the following: Randfontein, JCI Gold, Durban Deep and Harmony. And then I think for the speculative people, people always ask me, why don't I talk about CalGold. Well, it's a very good share. They can buy CalGold. The Gold Fields Calls I think, ought to buy now again, they're 120 cents, and Randfontein Options.

AH: The Gold Fields Calls Warrants?

NICK GOODWIN: Yes that's right, the Gold Fields Calls Warrants. Those are a buy, and Randfontein Options, so I think for the speculatively orientated people or the ones that want lower priced shares, CalGold,
Randfontein Options and Gold Fields Calls. And then basically you just need to ride with this portfolio until it perhaps becomes overpriced. It might be towards the end of this year, or early next year that we'll get that situation.

AH: Well that's our Gold Guru, Nick Goodwin. He's given you as specific advice as you could ask for. Just to go through them again, and Nick, please correct me if I've made any mistakes here - Anglo Gold 20% - so for every R10 000 you're going to put in, you put in R2 000 into Anglo Gold - R4 000 into Gold Fields, R1 000 each into Randfontein, JCI, Durban Deep, and Harmony. That's it from Nick Goodwin.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:15 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold 21 9/16

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:15 - ID#33184)
Nick Goodwin - Time To Buy

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:21 - ID#45173)
Repost: New Poll on Rates
Will Greenspan lower rates tomorrow? Please vote with the link below. Thx!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:22 - ID#225369)
Harmony vs ABX
Gentlemen,I'm biased: I own Harmony;I sold ABX.This is my take on it,this is why I value one over the other.ABX sounds like a bicycle,Harmony sounds,well,like a golden lyre.Most other valuations pale by comparison.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:25 - ID#393147)
Anglo/Minorco press release
Has anyone read the 10/15/98 press release jointly released by AAC and Minorco? It is not available to U.S. residents....

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:26 - ID#212323)
Volcanic glass...thank you, also.
I have marked the site you indicated and shall use it to full advantage. I do not fear for the "ownership" of gold. In my fleeting life of physical form I don't so much "own" immortal gold as I "make use of" it. This is not a privilidge that must be granted by a government of men. It is not a "right" that must be earned. It simply IS. "Mankind without gold is form without substance, effort without purpose." You can quote me on that.

"The product of the regime is a fraud." You can quote me on that, also.

Putting your gold under security of vault and concrete is a fine thing if you worry of predation by a neighbor or passing rogue. But of the government, specifically AMERICAN government, it would not trouble me to display the gold upon my brow, or rest it upon my shoulder, immune to privation. Such is the force of life as all should know, yet few do. Fear not.

got gold?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:30 - ID#393147)
I found it.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:36 - ID#339274)
FWIW back in again 21 11/16 ,maybe plat makes up its mind

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:43 - ID#334219)
For Barrick 3rdQ98, I have total cash costs at $217

Operating: $154M
Admin: $8M

Total: $174M

Ounces produced: 800,000
Cash cost/ounce: $174M/800K: $217.50

Next year 1stQ should get down at $165 with new Pierena Gold mine producing 190,000 ounces in Q1 at $50/ounce costs.

Mon ami, don't try to sell me Harmony...I am already sold to it.. But I will buy it only when the bull market is confirmed...or in 6-12 months from now if gold remains in its $290-$300 trading range till then.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:46 - ID#404410)
Cylist@ What does FWIW mean?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:50 - ID#45173)
Gore steps on his weenie at the Asia summit
Guess foreign policy is not gonna be the focus of his election in 2000.

APEC-FOCUS-Furious row mars Pacific Rim summit

( snip )

Mahathir was overheard saying: ``I've never seen anybody so rude.''

( snip )

Asked about the $5 billion offered by Washington, Rafidah said: ``I don't care. To me it's not worth five cents.''

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:52 - ID#252150)
John D.@Your 12:45 was one of your best . I took your advice & ate my yougurt.
I don't know why Kiwi gets so upset. We all know that the Arabs are no good. Geez, it's on TV every day. Now, if they start working on some bugs that will kill everyone except themselves...well that would be a little worrisome.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:53 - ID#339274)
FWIW we got ignition
HIGHHOPES FWIW /for what its worth its a disclaimer ,so you
can take it as bs : )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:55 - ID#254288)
Scares, interst rates and the shopping season

Now that the war scare has receeded, the flight to dollar safety should do likewise. If Greenspan lowers rates in November and he might well do so to help holiday sales and earnings, a further fall in the dollar is imminent; not to mention hopefully better ( but never happening ) balance of trade figures down the line.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:56 - ID#252150)
EJ@I think that the low industrial production # will give Greenspoon the green
light to ease. I actually hope that he does because I want to short more SPY, INTC & AMAT at higher prices.

The higher they go--the harder they fall.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 14:58 - ID#335379)
Poll game for the sheeple by the sheeple.
Q. What is the safest place to have your $ in the event of a recession?
Mutual funds.
Money Market funds.

Got Gold? Got cash? Or, Got "common" sense?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:01 - ID#288186)
Well Silver prices went down the tube. Gold went down as well.
But PGM's both closed higher! Jan Plat closed @ 352.00// Any stories out there relating to PGM's?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:07 - ID#266105)

Here's the earlier bickering at APEC--

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:08 - ID#188244)
Frustrated re:GSR- Any news?
Anyone else know anything ( about GSR ) ?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:10 - ID#335379)
Hello James:
Of couse not all Arabs are no good, I assume you mean that the USA TV is constantly telling us so. Just as not all humans are no good.
But on your other note while they may not make a weapon to kill all others but themselves the upside is that many of them prefer the suicide bomb aproach and no doubt go to hell instead of heaven, ridding us of more of that ilk.. It is VERY unfortunate that they succeed in killing more innoccents in the procsess. It would also apear as though our own Con-artist en chief has the same sick mindedness, that if he goes down he will take as many as he can down with him.

Got ticket to The Golden Ave.?


Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:16 - ID#430221)
I am a little confused after seeing the DROOY web site and their posting of their reserves. AM I really seeing this correctly?

14.4 Proven
46 Resource in several areas
82 Resource in Southern area
142.4 Million oz. total Proven and Resource estimation?

Or should I read this as 82 milllion total?

Check out their web site and let me know how you look at it.

This would give them over 2.5 oz of gold per share in the ground.
Of course they would have to prove up these resources which would
cost money. But.....

Thanks, GD

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:18 - ID#254288)
You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time.......

Spotted Al, Clinton's stiff triped over "his" while offering alms in Maylasia.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:19 - ID#262242)
Salt Lake City
I will be in the Salt Lake City and Ogden area the 20th to 25th of this month. Would enjoy having a cup of coffee with any Kitcoites in the area.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:20 - ID#339274)
FWIW Sold 21 13/16.Have a good day

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:31 - ID#430221)
Web site is

Look under "open letter to......."

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:31 - ID#430221)
Web site is

Look under "open letter to......."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:37 - ID#266105)

I think if Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain were to, say,
sack his finance minister and primary political opponent, throw him in jail, decree arbitrary exchange rates and capital controls essentially
confiscating foreign would be seen and called for what
it is-- petty acts of textbook autocratic despotism. Matahir is the
Prime Minister, the finance minister, the legislature, everything.
Total power.

Albright, on behalf of the administration, in talking to
Anwar's wife to get that side of the story, has it right.

Gore, on behalf of the administration and as guest at the
APEC summit, has it right in sticking it in the eye of the present
Malaysian regime.

The Canadian trade delegation has it right in speaking with Anwar's
wife, sending whatever message that sends to whoever receives it.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:39 - ID#350288)

Have you all read the Hoagland Wbsite where a so called insider says that all the hype of the shower is to cover a Y2K test on the Galaxy 5 satalite tomorrow. They say there is a 90% chance of complete failure that will shut down a ton of comunications. What will they blame it on, not Y2K but the meteor shower. Cant wait to see how this one turns out. Would have sold some positions today but this one could jack the price tomorrow. Go Gold

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:48 - ID#194311)
James...consider this.
With the correctly designed ethno-bomb you could cull whole races out of the American population, in fact you could single all those out without, say, a Jewish gene, for these after all are the people developing the weapon. What does America as a multi-culturally diverse nation have to gain from such ethinically divisive weapons, I can only hope that the US government has not had a hand to play in any such development but their track record isn't that great.

Do we really want to start down this road? It makes my skin crawl to imagine these sick people creating ( or even contemplating ) such contrivances to achieve greatness, these are assuredly weak human beings.

Albert Einstein, as a shining example for the people of Israel, would be turning in his grave observing such science going to enlarge the misery and suffering of humanity.

May the forces of sanity, wisdom and goodness prevail in all nations.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:50 - ID#45173)
@James & 2B
You may be right. Further rate cuts are veeeery bearish.

Can't we all just... get along?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 15:53 - ID#288466)
Gold Dancer
It gets even stranger if you look at the published Annual Report to figure it out.

( By the way, this puppy must have cost a FORTUNE to print )

Page 52 - Combined Operation

Ore reserve and Identified Mineral Resource Statement ( summaries extracted )

Pre-resource Mineralisation: Total 7206.1 Tonnes gold

Identified Mineral Resource: Measured 490.2 Tonnes gold
Indicated 509.5 Tonnes gold
Inferred 1438.2 Tonnes gold
Total 2437.9 Tonnes gold

Ore Reserves: Proved 261.1 Tonnes gold
Probable 135.2 Tonnes gold
Total 396.4 Tonnes gold

1 Tonne = 32150.76 Troy Oz


(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:01 - ID#403234)
DOW 9000+
Will there be another party??? Please don't tell me this is a great time to stock up on the physical ( again!! )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:03 - ID#28882)
To top it all off

Si warehouse stocks up 500k. Mr. Butler should keep his mouth shut ( g ) .

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:04 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 16

Gold 828,185 - 7,219 troy ounces
Silver 75,100,364 + 533,392 troy ounces
Copper 69,515 + 0 short tons

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:05 - ID#254288)

It's none of our damn business how another country runs its affairs, if we paid more mind what goes on within the US we'd be a lot better for it.
I honestly don't believe half the crap spewn upon us by the Administration, The Congress and the obediant US media when it concerns other countries.
That Mahathir refuses toaccept foreign interference or allow outside control of the Maylasian economy says a lot for the man. He treads not on us, but we on him.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:05 - ID#119358)
@sell some of your gold...and buy a big ham........
and gather your loved ones around you. Tonight I, studio.r, will watch the heavens perform a gloriously sparkey retaliation for the careless pollution earthings have performed in the once-holy realm of their sky. Celestial justice and the end of life as we wanted it. yes.

gather, eat ham and then duck.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:05 - ID#255226)
So far things are going according to plan ( 11/12, 7:21 ) . The dow is headed over 9000 and the S&P over 1150. This being option ex. week a positive tone should last thru out the week and the few days before Thanksgiving are some of the most positive trading days of the year. I would expect this mkt to hold up until at least Thanksgiving. XAU - is near its 1 st objective of wave c, 75.00, if 75 is broken look for 65. Gold and silver are still in small c waves down. Gold has a slighty higher objective of 277 and silver still at 4.40.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:06 - ID#413156)
More Garbage from The Middle East
Kiwi-The Arabs are testing a new dormant virus that could be mixed with certain cooking additives to create a 15-hour diarrhea attack. The code for this offense is called Operation Kosher Sh*tstream  and should make most Israels spend 80% of the day sitting on toilet seats .If another war should evolve this would put Israel up sh*ts creek .The next billion dollar loan to Israel should include a discount for toilet hardware and supplies .The middle East may eventually evolve into one humiliating Sh*t Pile.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:08 - ID#252391)
FWIW would you care to summerize your results today and in the future. Hypothetical $1000 up or down??

FWIW best trade on NEM was sell the opening buy the close.

Man if we don't see a rate cut tomorrow the air will really go out of the XAU balloon. I guess that's not original but the technical strength that has been experienced is getting long in the tooth. We need closes above 80. XAU right at its 200 and 50 day moving averae. A break on volumn here would have to be taken as very bearish.

Go PLat and PD at least something has a plus sign on it.

How about Dec crude at $12.80 - talk about deflation.

Rate Cut tomorrow = XAU at 78 not rate cut = XAU at 71

Good buy at 71 perhaps - if you like knifes.

We shall see tomorrow.

Cyclist - keep us informed in the short term

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:09 - ID#288186)
FWIW; The Gold drawdown was in eligibles... There's now only 85,909 oz's
in Eligible Gold Totals....You can now own what's left of eligible
stock by paying a measley $25,394,700.40
Chump change...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:15 - ID#252391)
Help on Butler
Would any body happen to have the url on Butler's article. Would appreciate its being posted. Always fun to read a bull.

Silver inventories coming out of the woodwork. Armstrong's Swiss airport stash must be open.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:17 - ID#28882)

Yeah, but if they run short in the COMEX, they'll just trundle more down from the NY Fed - ya got 6000 tons there, all of it apparently "eligible."


Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:21 - ID#430221)
Instead of Resource I should have used the word inferred. But I quess
that they do have a total of 142 million oz. in the proven and inferred
categories. Most interesting for a stock selling for under $3.
That makes ABX even more over priced. Which brings up a problem to me.
Are the gold prices being held down so that ABX can make enough money
to buy the SAs at a cheap price? No wonder the SAs are so inbred, with
each company owning some of the other= protection.

I would not put it past the US to try and do this. After reading
Dr. Hein's article on 'Money as War" I see this as a possibility.
THe world's gold producers need to get together and run the shorts
befor it is too late. I don't want ABX buying DROOY for $6. They won't
get my shares for under $30 and that is today. Tomorrow it will be more.

With gold at $500 that price will double or more.

Thanks, GD

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:23 - ID#288186)
sam; Oh, yeah........That's right. Gee, nothing to be worried about.
: )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:24 - ID#254288)

Put in the following without the ( en ) ( en )
What has Armstrong been saying about the European silver hoards?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:25 - ID#254288)

Put in the following without the ( en )
What has Armstrong been saying about the European silver

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:29 - ID#288186)
jims; Here ya go... May have to do the "en" thingie....

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:31 - ID#28882)
'Cause Golden Eagle takes so long too load

here is Butler's whole article ( we need some good Si news here... )


A practical definition of the word shortage as it pertains to a tangible commodity would evolve around supply being insufficient to meet demand. A more precise definition would refine the meaning of that insufficiency to apply to the inability of current production to meet current demand. Since all commodities have some sort of inventory, any imbalance of current demand exceeding current production will automatically necessitate a draw down of inventories, almost always by increasing prices. This is the essence of the supply/demand equation. Inferred in this basic definition of a commodity shortage situation is the inherent temporary nature of such a shortage. After all, a tangible commodity can not operate in a persistent deficit condition, once inventory is depleted, new production must at least equal current consumption, and more likely exceed it, in order to replenish inventory. With no inventory, it is impossible for demand to exceed supply, period. Shortages are, by definition, always temporary.

So is the title of this piece an oxymoron - how can there be a permanent shortage? Not to get too abstract, it depends on your definition of the word permanent. For me, meanings like continuous, durable and enduring come to mind, or simply, something that lasts a long time. Since most commodities have a seasonal production/consumption cycle, shortages are typically corrected in a growing season or two. Minerals are not bound by the seasons, so it may take longer to erase a deficit, but a few years has always been sufficient. Surpluses could continue for prolonged periods, but deficits can go no further than practical inventory depletion. Then the inevitable cycle of inventory replenishment must begin. But if it took an extraordinary period of time to balance a tangible commodity deficit, say instead of a year or so, something like fifty years, then I would apply the term - permanent shortage. And I see, clear as day, a permanent shortage of silver straight ahead.

Fifty years is an incredibly long period of time when talking about commodity cycles. How could I reasonably substantiate my statement that silver will be locked in a deficit supply/demand position for 50 years? A permanent shortage. Please hear me out.

The model for determining the length of the continuing silver deficit, as it would be for any other commodity, is to determine the price level it would take to encourage sufficient new production and choke off demand, once inventories are depleted in a practical sense at the then current price level. While the model may be simple, because there are varied and numerous producers, consumers and inventory owners, and potential new owners, all of whom have a specific price which will alter their behavior and ownership, figuring the net effect on the market at any time/price is more challenging. This is, in fact, what commodity analysis is all about. But where do I get off calling for a shortage situation in silver to last for the rest of our time on this earth?

It is said that to see the future, we must study the past. Fortunately, the historical record of silver is rich and well documented. Taking that rich historical record and applying it to the model for normal commodity analysis, a shocking future vision emerges for silver.

To look ahead 50 years, it would be appropriate to look back fifty years to gain a sense of perspective. Half a century ago, at the end of World War II, total known stocks of silver amounted to ten billion ounces ( with the US government holding 4 billion ounces of that total amount ) . At that time, we were just entering an era of unprecedented global economic expansion that has lasted to the present. In this era, silver was consumed in a variety of vital modern applications at a phenomenal rate. Today, known stocks of silver have shrunk over 95%, to maybe a half a billion ounces. The nine and a half billion ounce draw down in total silver inventory, was the result of the persistent shortfall between supply and demand, which continues to this day. Not coincidentally, the current 200 million-ounce annual deficit in silver mirrors the long-term trend line average. This continuing deficit is remarkable in that there has been decent growth in world production of silver over the past 50 years, but obviously not enough to satisfy the surge in industrial demand.

Herein lies the crux of my permanent shortage argument. If the world has consumed 95% of total known inventory of silver over the past 50 years, what will the future hold when the last practical inventory of silver is depleted at current prices, and supply from current production must satisfy current demand? If you think I'm alluding only to sharply higher prices, you are not getting my drift. I am talking about massive market dislocations that will dominate the silver landscape for the rest of our collective lives. Here's why - there is no practical price that I can imagine that would allow silver inventories to grow by virtue of current production exceeding current demand. I'm not talking about producing an extra 10 billion ounces, like we had 50 years ago; that will never happen. After all, that massive inventory buildup took the world thousands of years to accumulate because there was no industrial demand to that point. I'm stating we couldn't even produce 1% of that ( a real 100 million ounce surplus ) under the most extreme conditions. We are in a box.

Because so much silver has flowed from inventories over the past 50 years ( a lot of it uneconomic, as in US government releases at the bequest of the Silver Users Association, and the leasing scam ) , there has developed a structural imbalance between the free market forces of supply and demand. This structural imbalance is so great and so well formed that it is impossible to think in terms of a rational equilibrium price that would balance the supply/demand equation in a normal sense. I know that higher prices will have a probable effect on total supply in terms of changes in ownership of existing inventory, but I am hard pressed to come up with what the equilibrium price would have to be to balance the deficit once inventories are truly depleted. This depletion of inventories is certain because we are in an obvious deficit, but the timing is uncertain. You can't judge the moment of truth of inventory depletion in normal economic analysis terms because the main supply at the margin comes from an uneconomic source - the fraudulent central bank leasing of silver. Tell me when the leasing ends ( as it most certainly will ) , and you will probably see a double or triple on silver that day.

But a double, or triple, on silver in a day would only go a small way to altering the structural imbalance between ongoing production and ongoing industrial demand. Maybe such a quick price move may induce some holders to sell, but you can't be sure of potential buyer behavior. Depending on any number of unknowable factors, conditions at the time may induce new buyers to overpower old sellers. So the real question is, what effect would a quick double or triple have on the behavior of the real producers and consumers?

We often hear how the supply and demand for silver is inelastic, that is, changes in the price of silver do little to alter the amounts used and produced. But there's a different way of stating that fact. Imagine you are a mine producer or industrial consumer of silver and you see the price double or triple. One thought will flash through your mind - what price will I stop using ( or start mining ) silver? Say you are Eastman Kodak and the price goes to $15 quickly. Since there are no substitutes, is there any price at which you will deliberately shut down your company instead of passing on costs, albeit reluctantly? If you are Asarco or Barrick, at what price do you commit years and hundreds of millions of dollars to open a copper or gold mine to get at the by-product silver?

This is not to say that there will not be any response taken by real producers and consumers. There most certainly will be changes in producers and consumers behavior that will have an impact at the margin temporarily. But running down inventory or modifying the refinery mix are short-term reactions. In a just- in-time world, how much can you run down inventories by delaying purchase? Besides, this only strengthens my thesis that a double or triple would result in little if any change to the structural deficit, and in fact, would prolong it. You see, it will be only changes in the short term aspects of the market such as uncovering previously unavailable inventory, delays of purchase and the refining for silver instead of gold or copper in response to quick gains in price. The structural deficit will be largely unaffected for a very long time. The bottom line is the silver market will remain tight for many years to come, regardless of changes in inventory ownership and violent price action.

In summary, we have an indispensable ingredient of modern life in a structural supply deficit that has been fifty years in the making, with no chance of real balance except at prices many times current price levels, which in turn are at an inflation adjusted 50 year low. That alone would represent a scenario that was bullish beyond extreme. In order to distill my message I have intentionally avoided reference to the things people normally discuss in the debate on silver, such as, inflation, currencies, war, the stock market, hedge funds, Y2K, world economic crises, etc. I've tried to stick to bedrock fundamentals, industrial production, consumption and inventories. Silver to me is like the shrinking water hole on the African plains. When the elephants and lions ( Kodak, Dupont and Fuji ) come to drink, all others will be deprived.

Even in trying to stick to one point, the industrial fundamental situation in silver, any objective analysis would be woefully incomplete if it did not mention the short position and the leasing scam. As I have attempted to point out in prior articles, silver has the largest listed and OTC short position the world has ever seen, well over a billion ounces. This position is well in excess of either annual world production or known inventories. It is absolutely amazing that The CFTC or any banking authority has not questioned the economic incentive of the shorts. In addition, another, and separate, billion ounce short position exists via the leasing scam, which will never, ever be paid back. To this day, ongoing leasing by the central banks of silver continues to frustrate the laws of supply and demand, and deepens the structural imbalance, guaranteeing the permanent shortage.

Aside from the obvious danger to the shorts, I think it is the paper longs that are in real jeopardy from the huge short position. How so? With the real silver long-term situation so tight as to leave you in awe; the last thing this market needs is the largest paper short position in history. Given the historical precedence, when the crunch comes, paper longs will not be able to convert to physical, as their contracts proclaim. It is just not possible. There is too much paper and too little real metal. In the crunch, at the watering hole, paper won't hold up. Not COMEX paper, not any paper. Then we will learn the difference between paper silver and silver. I can't say when this will happen; only that it will happen. In fact, I can guarantee it will be the biggest force majeur in history. Now that I think of it, holding physical silver offshore would be the most prudent step a prudent investor could take to further prevent emergency confiscation of physical stocks. Have you ever wondered why Warren Buffett went to the trouble of buying physicals held in London? In the long run, your only defense against the shrinking watering hole, the permanent shortage, is real silver in a real safe place.

For the record, allow me to state a couple ( not all ) of the reasons why I post these articles on the Internet. One is somewhat selfish, the other is not. First, I am looking to establish an unquestioned record of what will happen in silver, based on the true fundamental situation, well in advance of the market violence I see ahead. There will be plenty of commentary after the fact, most of which will continue to miss the real story. Instead, the focus will be on lawsuits, forced liquidations, market emergencies, accusations of manipulation by the longs, and defaults on previously sacrosanct contracts. Everything but the real story. Maybe by stating the true situation up front, the intentional confusion will be less successful. Second, if my writings convince anyone to convert even a small amount of money into real physical silver at current levels, I know I will have done them a favor. If things get ugly, it may be what keeps them alive economically. If things stay rosy, the permanent shortage will bestow a windfall. In any event, the long-term risk reward is spectacular. A thousand ounce cash position can only lose a negligible amount in the worst, worst case. In a best case it could buy you a car, or even a house.

Ted Butler

14 November 1998

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:33 - ID#252150)
2BRO2B@As a Canadian I will not give our delegation or PM any credit
whatsoever for speaking out in Malaysia. Once again they have displayed their true colours. Knowing full well that Gore was going to be critical gave them the green light to speak out. Why don't they speak about the 500,000 children already dead from genocidal policies in Iraq?


(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:33 - ID#339274)
FYI I had a total of a 5/8 point gain today.You figure out what multiple
you want to deal with.Today was difficult,I didn't detect the volume
that normally comes with a breakdown. Xau hasn't broken down but NEM has.
To complicate matters ,Platinum made a close above 350 and that is super
bullish for gold down in the week.Overall I would approach it this week
in abearish tone ,next week the cycles are more upbeat.Repeat: Platinum
is putting a top in from now until the end of January '99.
Seasonally and cyclically we have an opportunity in a window of two months ( December and January ) for junior producers.
Silver to top out around Christmas.
Over and out

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:34 - ID#410194)
Education Reality check!
Price of crude oil on October 1st: $16.10
Price of crude oil today: $12.80

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:15
cherokee ( @....tonto.nat'l.forest......... ) ID#288232:

just for the record.....crude is a buy....
this not to bolster my current ( increasing ) some have alluded....

i ride alone against the wind, and she is my friend....
dgtrygf...and there is only one dotssm....

war...look at know the future...


(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:36 - ID#28882)
@Fox-Man - Of course, no worries :)

but there is the valid point to be made that they can plug the gold price more than they can plug the Silver price -- there really is a lot more gold lying around than silver. Just a thought...


(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:39 - ID#252150)
kiwi@Who cares?
As long as they don't develop a bug that will wipe out people wearing Levi Jeans.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:44 - ID#290456)
Gold Dancer - Here's what I think....

IF gold gets thru $400, methinks 2 days to $500. IF gold goes thru $500, market locks.

The first hurdle is the big one. I have no idea what happens to gold stocks if the markets shut down.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:48 - ID#253153)
Deflation is accelerating one mile faster than before
With crude oil closing at $12.80 bbl and copper aroung 0.70 cents per pound ( new low's ) the CRB is about to resume it's decline. As I have said many times before, deflation can't be altered or stopped by any politician or central bankers. It will run to completion and this is a long term process. It's unfortunate that many people either don't understand it or refuse to believe that we are in a runaway deflationary phase. Deflation will hurt all of us in our investments, businesses, personal life, etc. I hope folks on this forum will heed this warning.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:53 - ID#185409)
Gold dump tomorrow
At the end of another futures driven rally, notable for lack of individual buying and for the presence of WJC on the TV screen. Note that stocks were falling whenever more than a couple of minutes passed with the futures premium below the sell triger - where arbitrageurs buy stocks and short futures. Futures were over fair value all day.

There was a dump of gold shares ( see below ) . The usual situation is that there is a fed operation or economic data that should spark inflation fears and these are preempted by a dump of gold at the morning of the announcement - the commercial agent for the dump knows of this and prepares for a profitable trade by shorting gold stocks. This time it may be either
a sign of the agent knowing there is no cut or the definite knowledge that a cut is in the works that will be preempted by a gold dump.


Time Price Volume Exchange Info
16:02:08 21.375 29600 NYSE at Bid
16:01:58 21.375 1000 NYSE at Bid
16:01:54 21.375 1000 NYSE at Bid
16:01:21 21.375 18900 NYSE
16:00:01 21.437 900 NYSE at Bid
15:59:56 21.500 200 Boston at Ask
15:59:56 21.500 100 Cincin at Ask
15:59:54 21.437 1400 NYSE at Bid
15:59:52 21.437 1000 NYSE at Bid
15:59:29 21.500 300 NYSE at Ask


Time Price Volume Exchange Info
16:26:54 11.812 500 Pacific at Bid
16:26:54 11.812 500 Pacific at Bid
16:00:57 11.875 21300 NYSE
16:00:54 11.875 3100 NYSE
15:58:17 11.875 1000 NYSE
15:57:19 11.812 200 Chicago at Bid
15:56:51 11.875 12500 NYSE at Bid
15:56:44 11.937 3800 NYSE at Bid
15:55:59 11.937 600 Chicago at Bid
15:55:35 11.937 500 NYSE at Ask


Time Price Volume Exchange Info
16:14:28 15.750 100 Pacific
16:01:50 15.750 12700 NYSE
16:01:38 15.750 19000 NYSE
16:00:49 15.750 16500 NYSE
16:00:13 15.687 500 NYSE
15:59:27 15.750 300 NYSE at Ask
15:59:02 15.687 100 NYSE
15:58:07 15.687 1000 NYSE
15:58:01 15.687 1500 NYSE
15:57:49 15.625 19300 NYSE at Bid

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:57 - ID#288186)
JP; Could you give us some more back ground about yourself. You, obviously
are very confident in your statements. I look forward to hearing
from you. Thanks, Fox-man

(Mon Nov 16 1998 16:59 - ID#411440)
@ sam re silver: Do you have any figures on the CB stocks of
silver? Are there other sources of leased silver?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:01 - ID#28882)
Notes on Butler Article (repost - would like some feedback)

1. Butler contends there is a 1 bil oz short spec position and another 1 bil oz "lease-based" short position. These numbers seem very aggressive.

2. Butler contends there remain only 0.5 bil oz of "inventories" on surface. Perhaps in bullion form this may be true; but in fabricated form, this number is much higher. If the price were to rise significantly, you would see a lot of this melted down and come to market.

3. There is the implication that industrial usage accounts for the deficit; this is not entirely true -- India accounts for some 100 mil oz per year and this is mostly investment demand. More moderate observers would suggest that the deficit is only 100 mil oz per year. As the Indians are very price sensitive, a rise in the price would eliminate the deficit altogether.

4. Butler suggests that Buffet bought spot because he didn't want "paper silver" due to the risk of counter party default. This is not true. Buffet has lent out most of his silver and thus his positions are now, effectively, paper longs. He bought spot in London because he didn't want regulators getting in his way.

Apart form this nitpicking, though, I think that Mr. Butler is once again on the money -- thank-you Sir.


(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:02 - ID#269469)

"If the Department of Commerce extends its
blessing, ICANN will oversee Internet address
allocation, influence technical standards, and
set rules for domain-name registration and new
top-level domains. The board's bylaws prohibit
the public from attending meetings, permit
secret votes, and provide no way for the public
to appeal ICANN's decisions."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:06 - ID#253153)
Fox Man-- all I can tell you is that:
I have been investing in stocks for over 35 years. I'm a business man and owns a very successfull business. I have spent many years researching the topics of inflation and deflation and have invested accordingly by being a super bull on bonds and stocks from Aug 1982 to Feb 1998. That is all I can tell you.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:15 - ID#212323)
JP--you said...
" It's unfortunate that many people either don't understand it or refuse to believe that we are in a runaway deflationary phase. Deflation will hurt all of us in our investments, businesses, personal life, etc. I hope folks on this forum will heed this warning. "
I'm not arguing the point. Last summer when the Fed was riding the inflation/deflation fence, I posted that when the Fed would move rates, they would indeed move them down, and gave the reasons.
Deflation. That's right. On a global scale the inflation damage has been done...its just that its extreme extent has been masked from those on U.S. shores--dollar being the reserve currency that it is. Deflation is sweeping the world even as the coming euro launch will displace these dollars to demonstrate the dollar inflation ( at last! ) for all in the U.S. to see. This that I state is information, no more, no less.

But you, you seem to make a call to action, again: " It's unfortunate that many people either don't understand it or refuse to believe that we are in a runaway deflationary phase. Deflation will hurt all of us in our investments, businesses, personal life, etc. I hope folks on this forum will heed this warning."

Just what is it you would have people do??

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:19 - ID#28882)
Hey Rhody! (Silver CB Stocks)

From what I know, Western CB's are all tapped out. The US may still hold a straegic reserve of some 40 mil ozs. Eastern CB's and smaller countries still have some left, but this is going quick. Bullion reserve estimates, from what I have heard, range from 300 mil ozs to 800 mil ozs. A lot of this is held by private institutions and individuals.

When's the next Kitco T.O. dinner?


(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:22 - ID#253153)
Aragorn III --I have recommended the following:
1. For capital appreciation and safety---gold and gold mining stocks.
2. For income--Long term treasury securities .
3. For immediate needs---cash on hand.
4. Pay off all debts.
5. Be out of common stocks.
I hope it helps.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:26 - ID#212323)
;- )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:28 - ID#411440)
@ sam: Thank you for the silver stockpile data. It looks like
we could still be waiting 8 to 10 years for total world stocks to
reach zero, at a deficit rate of 100 million oz per year. That's
a little beyond my normal investment horizon. I'm afraid we will be
in a massive deflation before then.

Moony is setting up a Kitco meet in Toronto, and I said I'd bring
the silver. We should be hearing from him shortly. I should call
him this weekend if I don't pick him up on this forum.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:30 - ID#320136)
Gold Fields
Anyone have the ticker for Gold Fields, as refered to
in the Nick Goodwin article?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:35 - ID#45173)
Repost: New Poll on Rates
Will Greenspan lower rates tomorrow? Please vote with the link below.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:37 - ID#28882)
@Rhody re Silver stocks

yeah - but it don't have to go to zero before this things is gonna blow. I would say that total bullion reserves equal the total short position; that's a "safe" estimate. If this is correct, it would imply that all the silver "that is" has already been sold. This is a remarkable condition. Imagine if 100% of the shares of a company had been sold short? Can you spell p-o-w-d-e-r-k-e-g?



ted butler
(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:38 - ID#317184)
sam - silver

Per your request -

1. with over 600 million on COMEX alone at today's close in futures and calls and the OTC market said to run 2-3 times that amount, I thought I was being conservative. As far as leasing, did you see 2BR02B's 11/13 12:52 re Phiippine CB press release ( thanks 2B ) - it looks to me like they've loaned out a minimum of 100 million ounces of silver, and maybe more than 200 million. Wud be interested in your take.

2. and 3. - I agree. I was trying to say unknown inventory can come out, but that only prolongs the structural deficit imbalance.

4. If true, it is wildly bullish. It means that much less physical inventory that could be sold and that much more of short position to be covered. Although I don't see much of an economic incentive for Buffett, he seems to do ok. Hope you're right.

Thanks for the kind words. Back tommorrow

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:50 - ID#43460)
JP what if we just think we are in a deflation due to cheap oriental currencies?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:51 - ID#290456)

Don't you think that at some point the 'trigger' will be met and the drawdown of visible stockpiles will accelerate?

My view is that stockpile drawdowns accelerate into near-vertical curves as they approach zero, ( like commodity market tops as they approach peak pricing - except in the opposite direction ) . At some point..... when it is obvious to everyone that there is not enough silver to go around ....then everyone and his brother will begin to buy and hoard it. Think gasoline in the early 70's.

I don't think 8 to 10 years drawdown for this reason - more like 4 to 5 years, tops. And that isn't taking into account a cutoff of silver from base metal production if we go into general deflation, or hoarding effects due to Y2K.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:54 - ID#347457)
OK Oracles of the Market
I need to get out of my gold stocks holding until this market settles and establishes some more predictable trend. I don't have time to watch the market on hourly basis ( even daily ) and that in turn results in more loses than I like. This Middle East "decisive" policy cost me money as well as I bought some oil stuff but did not have chance to jump out today when the war did not happen ( again )

So, the question is, is there any chance for some upswing tomorrow ( I personally doubt that ) or should I get out the first thing in the morning??

Eagerly expecting any suggestion ( except "go ahead - buy some more" )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:56 - ID#23992)
Gold Reserves and Resources
Pre Resource Mineralisation

Area with little or no samples ( drillholes, trenches, etc ) in it, the geologist best guess at what might be there ( very rubbery number ) .

Measured, Indicated & Inferred Resource

Depending on the sampling coverage the resource will classified as Measured ( good sample coverage ) , Indicated ( sample coverage not as good as Measured ) , Inferred ( limited sample coverage.

A resource does not have to be economically viable, you could quote a resource of 1,000,000oz consisting of 100,000,000t @ 0.31g/t.

Proven & Probable Reserves

Proven Reserve is the proportion of the measured resource that is economical ( contained within an open pit or planned underground ) . Probable Reserve is the proportion of the indicated resource that is ecomomical. Inferred resource cannot be converted to reserve as the sampling coverage is not great enough.

Cheers Wombat

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:57 - ID#290456)

I follow most of your deflation arguments and mostly agree with them....but am having some trouble reconciling the inflationary effects ( to dollar-based economies ) from the Euro currency, should it in fact become a competitor as a world reserve currency. If you have given this some thought, I would be eager to hear your views.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 17:59 - ID#43460)
Snowbird, thanks
Will look up the Tim McCreight book in the library. I already have a copy of Bovin, a very good little book.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:02 - ID#43460)
Nick@C come back!
We promise we won't ever disagree with you again! Oops never mind, I just read your next post. Anybody who does ascii drawings of potatoes has no right to call themselves sensitive. ( 8-^] )


(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:04 - ID#253153)
gagnrad---The seeds of deflation were germinating long before the oriental
currencies were devalued. Devalued currencies are the results of collapsing prices and economic activity. Runaway deflation usually occurs every 55-70 years. For example , the Japanese yen continued to rise against the dollar even after the Nikkei started it's bear market in 1989. Other Asian foreign currencies went down the toilet. We have moved from an era of shortages to an era of over production and surpluses on just about every commodity ( that includes real eatate ) . Countries today's will over produce just to survive by receiving foreign currencies and over production of goods and services will drive prices down much further. This is only the beginning of the runaway deflationary phase.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:04 - ID#32078)
Someone asked about GSR earlier. Today's volume was 19 times average and it lost 1/8 to 1 1/4, down 9%. At this rate, it will hit a new low on Thursday.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:07 - ID#290456)

FWIW the Fibonacci time chart for the XAU index is looking more and more like we'll see a bottom this week - for a nice ride up. The daily chart says a market turn due the 18th, the weekly chart says a turn due the 20th. I would hate to see you bail out near the low.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:08 - ID#430221)
Silverbarron--Your 16:44
I sense you are right on the gold and silver markets. Once past a
certain point the Feds will shut down the markets. They have set it up
this way. But will it work?

No one knows because the world has never been in a situation like
this before. This is what scares me about Clinton/Gore. They will anything to survive. But so would any Republican.

But will it work? No, if the answere is that the gold loans must
be paid back in gold. But we know now that this is not the case. Gold
loans are being paid back in currency. I have always said that this
would happen and it is. The question is how much and which currency will
the Central banks accept? We do not know this for sure but I bet most
of it will be EUROs. Just a guess.

GOld will rise but what will happen to the mines if they close the
markets? They will go down for a while till the markets open up again.
No one knows how long this will take. I am quessing that gold will
have to get over $500 like you say to shut the markets down. By then
the gold stocks should have made a mighty good run on their firs leg up.

At that point I plan to sell some keep some.

The Govt. is not going to make it easy and they will actually make it
worse for everyone. But they will be able to do this because the govt
will make the gold bugs the evil force and pit them against everyone's
IRA and 401 K's. And the people will vote for themselves which means
against gold as money.

So the biggest war is about to begin. It is about what is wealth and
what is paper. It is going to get interesting....I wish I was smarter
or among the insiders. Then I would not have to be smart, just know what
they were going to do. And that is what is wrong with the present system.
Gold is freedom and fiat money is slavery. What will the people choose?
My guess slavery first and freedom second. Meaning after they have suffered deceit and failed and have nothing to lose. They they will choose gold over fiat. But till the fat lady sings they will choose fiat
and slavery. It's "easy" to let someone else control your life.

Thanks, GD

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:12 - ID#212323)
Consider that those "cheap oriental currencies" are as such because their countries had been on the receiving end of US Dollar denominated loans for development and other investment purposes...payback with interest also owed in US Dollars which they have no ability to create on their own. In addition to running trade surpluses to obtain these payback dollars, imagine that they also "cheated" ( US-style! ) by printing more national currency than was prudent--to offer on the FOREX for dollars with which to repay these loans--these dollars becoming ever harding to come by because the inflation has peaked with the peak of the borrowing, and deflation sets in as the payback commences in excess of borrowing new dollars into existence. [ok, THAT was a long sentence...take a breath]
Inflation and deflation are unavoidable cycles of fractional reserve lending practices, and the wind has changed. While the non-US world may be gripped by deflation, the US will be spared deflation for one reason. The euro launch will flush out billions of dollars from various national foreign exchange reserve coffers. They have nowhere to go but home. The years of US dollar ( money supply ) inflation that has been spread thin over the globe will get thinner over the globe as much of it moves with concentration onto US shores. Inflation for US, deflation for them. It's all a matter of money supply, location, and scale. If it were not for the euro, the US would likely see deflation also. ( Borrowing not as rampant as it once was ) .

But then, I got all this off the back of a cereal box...

got milk?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:13 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.55. The 233 day moving average is 29.00

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:14 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .255. The 233 day moving average is .248

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:16 - ID#242214)
Ah, I remember the days
when I was as confident as JP and Puetz that deflation had taken
hold, Citicorp was going down, and bonds would wilt. : ) Man,
did I get my butt burned on bonds.

In the five years since, I have learned to not underestimate Uncle
Sam's desperation to keep the status quo intact. : )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:18 - ID#45173)
Agree with all you say. For the past few years have been following the very perscription you advise. I bought PMs as a hedge against inflation during the period of increased interest rates that will attend a desperate cash raising and euro diversifying treasury selloff.

Is that the reason you recommend buying PMs?


Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:20 - ID#212323)
Can offer no assistance as you are gambling--and therefore at the mercy of the dice!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:20 - ID#254288)

Your second point makes good sense, but I think we need a jeweler to provide us the mark-ups on various silver fabricated items without stones.
Other second party costs such as refining and disposition costs of this silver will effect a sellers realized price or profit desire, that was the motive for selling in the first instance. A second instance could be to sell into dire necessity.
The above mentioned factors ( and for sure many others ) can be multiplied by the average price of silver for the last 20 years to get a feeling when fabricated silver will be turned in for cash.
The above thoughts do not consider family herlooms fabricated in silver or that cash may in some societies be worthless.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:21 - ID#290456)
Gold Dancer

My thinking is based on the knowledge of enormous short positions ( the quantity...8000 to 14000 tonnes depend on who you believe ) accumulated below $400 per ounce. Above $400 there would be a mass forced-short coverage into a rising market; above $500 the shorts will have lost control of the ability to bring the price back down.

I don't know whether governments would be directly involved in closing the markets, but it is obvious if you look at the quantities of available metal, there is no way the markets could continue to operate for very long against a mass exodus of short positions.

I'm with you about selling part of my positions if we ever get this wonderful opportunity....sell on the 2nd gap up above $400....the third one may never come.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:29 - ID#288186)
Aragorn III; Wow! Your 18:12 post was great! Just like the 1812 Overture...
PLAY IT AGAIN! Let's hear some more...I've been trying to figure out
how there's a deflationary scenerio as well as inflationary scenerio
playing out at the same time, and your "1812 Overture" really sums
it up for me! I guess that's why I've had a hard time fully understanding
all the inflation/deflation arguments. I've felt that the U.S. has had
more inflationary fears to worry about, but could never pinpoint why
or how it would play out! You've helped me understand it more. Thanks!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:35 - ID#253153)
EJ--I'm recommending gold during this runaway deflationary phase for the following reasons
1. As an hedge against the coming corp bankruptcies.
2. As a safe haven during times of uncertainty.
3. In my heart of hearts I know that the US government will back our dollar with gold at much higher prices, sometimes within the next 2-3 years. I would rather be early than late in buying gold.
4. Universal demand for gold is starting to manifest itself. .
5. The Euro introduction in Jan 99 may force central banks to divest them of large dollar holding.
6. Gold is heavily shorted and manipulated . All that represent tremendous future buying potential.
7.Defaults by major countries will drive people away from paper money.
8.In deflation, only gold ( silver ) increases in value. Every other commodity will decline in price.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:37 - ID#212323)
Fox-Man...glad to help. $ No Charge.
Must try to escape the computer. Papers beckon...

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:45 - ID#212323)
JP--18:35...excellent summary...the reasons are compelling and speak for themselves
In sum total, what we have is an emerging financial crisis ( rather than a standard economic phenomenon ) . Gold, alone among the financial commodities, has the fortitude to weather the storm. Fiat currencies will scatter as leaves in the wind...if they manage to avoid the flames!

Gold Dancer
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:45 - ID#430221)
JP-Your #8 point
I think gold and commodities have already reflected deflation so
Gold will go up against financial assets not commodities.

That is my thinking.


Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:58 - ID#212323)
A final tip, inspired by Gold Dancer
The malaise suffered by gold for the past 2 years ( 20 years, in fact! ) had nothing to do with deflation in any way, shape, or form.

Someone ( OPEC and Co. ) took the long side of two decades of forward sales for a reason. This was the only way for two parties to meet their two goals at the same to preserve The System ( banking and fiat currency ) , and the other to flee that same system ( with more money than could be accomodated anywhere on earth ) into gold . Under such circumstances, there is no shame paying $300 to $600 for future gold production in a falling market when experience has shown that it cannot be obtained easily on the spot in a rising market, even at $800, which, further, jeopardizes The System.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 18:58 - ID#290456)
Gold Dancer

Commodities may be reflecting deflation to some extent, but for many there is quite a ways to go. Here are some numbers I have seen tossed around for production costs on a couple of commodities:

Copper...production costs ( conventional process ) $.60 to .65 per lb; ( SX-EW modern process ) $.40 to .45... copper is now at $.70-.75

Saudi light crude oil...production costs $3.00/barrel....oil is now $12 to $13

Any updates on these figures ( or any others ) would be appreciated.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:01 - ID#290456)
Gold Dancer

I neglected to mention that in a serious deflation, commodities tend to drop to, or slightly below their production costs.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:10 - ID#410128)
Gold Dancer
"Gold is freedom and fiat money is slavery. What will the people choose? "
I say, they have already chosen, over and over again. The avg. Joe ( Jane ) dosen't care,
as long as things go his ( her ) way. Hardly any one thinks for themselves.
If "things" aren't de-coded to their ( lowest ) denominator ( payments ) , in this case
dollars$/mo. the concept of price in terms of fiat currency has no meaning.
You may apply the ( lowest ) common denominator mentality to politics , religion
and freedom. What does it cost me per month..week! If I can make the payments
When they can't make it....things change.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:10 - ID#288186)
Aragorn III; You have obviously done much studying and reading on these
"Currency Plays" and "Gold Plays". It is great to have someone who
can assemble bits and pieces of data ( from various sources ) , and then
explain them in a "bird's eye view" sort of way! I take it, one of
your sources of data gathering comes from ANOTHER. I've been following
his posts at USAGOLD and can see where you're comin' from. No doubt,
you have many other sources as well, not to mention your own insight!
Keep it up...Good reading! Fox-man

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:13 - ID#253153)
Silverbaron--You raised a good point regarding commodities production costs
In the US and Canada, very few oil drillers, oil service companies and some integrated oil companies can survive $12-13 bbl. I think breakeven point in North America is around $14 bbl. In the base metal mining business, Asarco recently announed that they need at least 0.65 cents per pound to remain profitable. We are very close to production costs on Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Copper, etc. When the CRB breaks below 185, many of these companies may not survive. I remember seeing somewhere that the the energy industry in the US owes $250 B to US banks.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:15 - ID#343171)
true also in the saps payments to the IRS, many say "hey I got a
refund on my taxes" like its the %$#&& lottery

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:17 - ID#394218)
More on reserve definitions.....
1 ) When looking at reserve statements one needs to read the fine print to find the metal price used in the reserve calculations. Most reserve statements could be charaterized as "forward looking" as they use a metal price which is higher than the current market price. In the last year I have never seen a reserve statement utilizing less than $300/ounce with many using $325 to $350 per ounce.

2 ) Reserves are defined as the amount of metal that can be recovered at a profit after deducting mining, processing and smelting/recovery costs. Capital investment, either in terms of plant and equipment cost or exploration and development investment, does not enter into the calculation.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:20 - ID#288186)
JP; You once mentioned how LOW you thought the CRB index would go....
Would you mind repeating your estimate and maybe give examples of
how low some of the commodities may go, especially "softs", "metals",
and "energies". TIA. Fox-man

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:21 - ID#259260)
ODDS...Gold & Meteors
* Odds that any single satellite will be impacted by a Leonid particle in the next 48 hours, About 1:1000

* Odds that substantial crippling non recoverable damage will be done to two or lmore more satellites in the next 48 hours. About 1:100

* Odds that Gold will see $320 by weeks end. About 1: 1,000,000,000

* Odds that a Puetzkian deflationary collapse will occur by year end. About 1: 10 X 38th

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:23 - ID#259260)
Leonids meteors, a history
Excellent link if you're interested in the history of previous Leonid shoers and how they affected the populace.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:26 - ID#259260)
Gold Numismatics remain strong
Comments from this weeks CDN

"Mint State Gold Type has been found among the leaders of the sight-unseen market for several weeks. The strong demand for Gold has encouraged dealers to be more aggressive with their Bids. Although we continue to monitor strong supporting offers for Gold, the activity and vitality of this sector of the market appear to be decreasing. The pressure from Gold bullion failing to increase above the $300 per ounce level may be influencing the market. Still, dealers tell us that they have many customers looking to buy Gold for their collections or add them to their portfolios. Probably the strongest demand is seen for $20 Liberty and Saint-Gaudens. These coins contain approximately 1-ounce of Gold. This makes them very versatile to buyers. It satisfies their need for bullion as well as benefiting from owning a numismatic coin."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:28 - ID#25257)
Bill and Ari
Did anyone see the catchy new poster of Bill wearing His Houndstooth Dishrag with Arifat playing the clarinet? Actually, the original shoot had Ari playing "My Dog Has Fleas" on his AK-47. Anybody for a Condo on the West Bank?

Spud Master
(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:29 - ID#11929)
Pity you weren't working with Rocketdyne, buggy -- maybe their damn XRS-2200 would be on schedule. Here's a big swig o'H202 to ya!


(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:29 - ID#259260)
golden eagle Sales.... STRONG..and record for 98 to date!!
golden eagles sales reach record high for 1998
920,000 ounces of gold sold in October, Mint reports

Uncirculated gold American Eagle bullion coins remain hot among collectors and investors, with 288,500 ounces sold by the United States Mint during October.

Octobers sales carried calendar year 1998s total gold sales to 1,463,500 ounces, and program totals since October 1986 to 8,832,000.

Sales of 1-ounce silver Eagles during October reached 920,000 ounces, the highest sales month for 1998. Annual sales reached 3,385,000 silver coins and program totals reached 72,851,500 coins.

Platinum sales in October reached 25,150 ounces, bringing the years total to 123,100 ounces and program totals since September 1997 to 196,450.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:30 - ID#253153)
FOX-MAN--- It's not my intent to scare anyone---just to let you know what I think
As I see it, at the bottom of this deflationary cycle the CRB will be trading between 30---50 sometimes between the years 2000----2001.
Crude oil-----around $5 bbl .
Copper-- around 20 or less cents per pound. In the last depression it went down to 5 cents per pound.
Lead-- around 10-15 or less. cents per pound.
Zinc--around 10-15 or less cents per pound.
Aluminum--around 10--15 or less cents per pound.

Thirty years from now, I expect crude oil to be selling for $200+ bbl.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:32 - ID#259260)
Kaplan comments for the day
COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities fell sharply on Monday, while precious metals closed mixed. Gold dipped 90 cents, silver plunged 9.8 cents, platinum rallied $3.40, and palladium gained $1.00. The yellow metal remains very slightly above its 200-day moving average after retesting it several times during the past few trading days; this pattern should be expected to continue in the near future. The U.S. dollar fell moderately against most currencies, and significantly versus the Japanese yen. Bonds retreated modestly, while stocks closed generally higher. After five straight losing sessions, the Russell 2000 finally closed with a gain of 0.27%, while the Dow closed above 9000 for the first time since July 30. With large caps continuing to outperform small caps and very few new annual highs, the market is setting itself up for a significant drop between now and the week before Christmas.

Demand for U.S. gold, silver, and platinum bullion coins are running at their highest levels since the U.S. mint began its coin-selling program in 1986/1987. A total of 1,463,500 ounces of U.S. Eagle gold bullion coins were sold in the first 10 months of 1998, up 172.2% from the same period in 1997. Year-to-date sales of U.S. silver Eagles was 3,435,000 ounces, up 35.7% from the first 10 months of 1997. U.S. Eagle platinum bullion coins saw total sales of 123,100 ounces, with 25,150 ounces sold in October alone.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:36 - ID#259260)
@ Spud...
A gulp and a sip ( and another gulp ) to ya! Rocketdyne...yeah...but we're behind on Globalstar also...thanks to using that damn Russkie Zenit vehicle! ( Guess we'll have to give "Nuclear rocket secrets" to the Russkies now eh? hehehehe )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:40 - ID#259260)
ODDS...forgot the FED
Odds of a FED interest rate cut tomorrow.... 1:10... isn't going to happen.

Greenie needs to keep a bullet or two in his gun, just in case Global crises hasn't seen bottom andreversed. ( But it has..... )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:43 - ID#93241)
No way commodities will drop that low. Producers won't be working at those prices. We're near bottom now for commodities. And as many dollars as the Fed is printing now, inflation will catch up to us sooner than we think. It hasn't yet because supply is growing as fast as demand. All it will take is an interruption in the distribution system, ala Y2K or war ( a big one ) , and all of a sudden, too many dollars are chasing too few goods...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:44 - ID#259260)
@ Bart.... anti U.S. Gold coin bias?
Hey Bart, Hate to be U.S.centric and all, but is there any way we can talk about one of the most popular mediums for Gold sales...namely the U.S. minted coin known as the "Gold" um "Eagle" without it becoming a little golden eagle all the time? I mean Vronsky hasn't been pestering us with thousands of redundant link posts a day anymore.

Only a suggestion and as always, thanks for the excellent site.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:47 - ID#290456)
JP.....KOWABUNGA!!!!! certainly believe the deflationary scenario. I guess it goes without mentioning that the world will starve to death under those kind of conditions, and the social unrest it would cause.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:49 - ID#212323)
It is my pleasure to bring some degree of order/sense/calm to these unique times to the extent that I may be in a position to do so. ANOTHER has indeed been of valuable assistence...'reminding' me of things once known and of things "just over the horizon", so to speak. The history of the Seventies and of OPEC, if you have an interest to do the research, reveals very much that is applicable today insofar as it laid the foundation for what has transpired to this point. To understand money is to see what pieces the big picture is yet lacking, and enables one to direct scrutiny. The euro is the dark sail viewed upon the horizon, that as it nears you will find the ship of gold has come in. The other matters ( US currency, inflation, deflation, asian contagion, etc ) are just trifling background elements that give flavor to the soup.
You might protest, "How can you call the US Dollar a 'trifling matter'?!"
Consider this. It is a fiat currency. In the Seventies, OPEC taught a lesson that went unheeded by many to this day...petroleum makes the world go 'round. The entire history of mankind taught a lesson that gold is the only money par excellence. Combine the irresistible force with the immovable object and a paper contrivance can but bear witness.
Advice to my FRIENDS is is not so easy to get your arms around oil. Better still is to get your fingers around gold. This advice would not be given in the mid 80's through mid 90's. As the hull of the euro ship rises now above the waterline horizon, the course to follow is clear and sure. All else is, well, jetsam...or flotsam. Advice to KITCO, however, is this...Kitco has no need to trouble itself with my advice. It is simply good to visit a place where the battles are not so often fought uphill.

ok, I really MUST attend to those papers...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:49 - ID#288186)
JP; Thanks for the input. I just wanted to get an idea of how badly the deflationary
cycle would play out. I realize you're not trying to scare anyone.
I look forward to your posts because I'm interested in seeing all
perspectives. I sometimes think you're condescending to us kitcoites, though, because we don't see it exactly as you see it. I have no idea
how things will truly evolve in the next few years. Whether it's inflation, deflation, stagflation, or whatever. All I know is that the
turmoil is going to happen. I think we both agree ( in fact most kitcoites
agree ) that several things are sure to happen. 1 ) The U.S. stock market
crashes 2 ) Gold and Silver rise due to fear, uncertainty, and safety.
3 ) The world goes into a period of "woe's" with riots, violence, further
moral decay, high un-employment, etc.
This all shall occur via "earth shattering" financial armagedden due to
the collapse of the "fiat currency" system, as we know it. IT'S COMIN'
HOME TO ROOST! I pray for all of us....The days ahead won't be pretty.


(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:56 - ID#288186)
Aragorn III; Thanks. Go hit them papers. I'll talk at ya later!
: )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:56 - ID#253153)
Strat---If the bond market senses money printing by fed getting into circulation
Interest rates will soar and the economic collapse will be magnified. People forget that we have a $6 trillion treasury market as well as a $20 trillion corp market and a $5 triilion municipal bond market. . The Euro bond market dominated in American dollars has been estimated to be as high as $8 trillion. With astronomical debts such as these , the bond markets will reacts violently if they sense money printing. Don't ever under estimate the bond markets. They are much larger in total capitalization than all the stocks markets in the world combined.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:56 - ID#25257)
Love The Warmth
I just love the warmth of the Kitco Negative Cocoon. No matter what happens, the world is just one big Poop Ball. If Oil could dive to say $5 a barrel and gold to some how jump to $739.59, life would be all Love and Beauty. Or...if Bill and Arie could somehow find themselves down in the bunker both reaching for the big red button to nuke the Israelies...well, what a life; what a world!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 19:57 - ID#316193)
Bill Fleckenstein -- "I have never seen speculation this hot in my entire career
and I think that is going to raise the stakes for the Fed to
show some responsibility."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:04 - ID#25257)
under estimate=under-estimate, and adjective!

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:06 - ID#242214)
The Euro represents an oligopoly, not competition to the US $
In other words, the "massive currency movement" to the Euro will be
much less than anticipated.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:09 - ID#253153)
Silverbaron---By nature I'm an optimist and have always been that way
The world will not starve. People will learn how to live with less and will become more spiritual and conservative. I do believe that the US government will realize sooner than we think that a return to gold backed currency is a must ( not an option ) in order to avoid a catastrophe and the effects of floating currencies. I believe we will return to fixed currencies based on gold and after a period of adjustment ( few years ) economic activity will return to normal growth levels. If we don't back our money with gold, GOD help us all.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:20 - ID#347457)
@Silvebaron and Aragon III
Silvebaron, thanks, I think I'll sit through the end of week to see if it turns.

Aragon III, well, you can call it gambling. Yes, I was gambling on Oil stocks and what I gained last week I lost today. As far as gold stock go, I don't consider that gambling. If I were in throughout this year, I would be breaking even - not very profitable investment. You know that we have these short cycles over and over. It goes up in a few days and drops even more next week. If I was suppose to be in "for the long run" in the last few years I would be loosing money badly. You see, most of my money comes from 403K plans and the only way to participate is to go through gold funds. That is the reason I am saying that I have to wait for more established trend.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:20 - ID#25257)
And GOD helped!
GOD helped the Philistines: Exit Stage Left.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:36 - ID#284255)
Swing charts updated
US Swing

Australian swing

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:39 - ID#194311)
Socialist Lafontaine suddenly not so warm 'n fuzzy.
German minister Lafontaine says no question of setting fixed exchange

BONN, Nov 16 ( AFP ) - German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine
said here on Monday that there was no question of setting fixed
exchange rates now.
"There is no question of setting in the short term zones for
fluctuations between currencies but to cooperate within the G7
( group of industrialised nations ) for stable exchane rates," he said
after meeting French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
Lafontaine had mentioned several weeks ago setting such fixed
zones in order to dampen currency speculation that has contributed
to a financial crisis in Asia and other regions.
"No one questions the goal of reaching more stable exchange
rates," Lafontaine said.
The key was how to achieve this, Lafontaine said, adding that
the creation in January of a single currency for 11 European states
would "change factors on the world currency markets".
He said that he and Strauss-Kahn agreed that an effort should be
made to align economic levels between countries.

COMMENT: Boy, the turnaround in this guy is spectacularly transparent, now why would you not want to hook the spanking new euro to the soiled old dollar? Perhaps the old girl is actually a floundering debt ridden tub on it's way to the bottom of the curren seas? And the light comes on in the dim mind of the idealistic politcian.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 20:41 - ID#288186)
strat; Here's an Elliott Wave view of the CRB by Peter DeSario..
According to him, the CRB is just correcting in wave 2, soon to proceed

[CRB INDEX]: It appears that prices at the 195.18 low of August 28 registered a major low,
six years from a major low that was also 6 years from a major low. With a bottom of some
lasting significance in place, prices may have completed an initial advance at 204.90 on
October 1, with the action from there potentially tracing out an expanded flat second wave that
requires a wave c decline carrying below 201.34 for completion before prices will be in
position for a very strong rally in a third wave.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:06 - ID#284255)
Email snippet
The major European markets will switch on 4th January 1999 to be
redenominated in euro. As a result, data feeds will show a discontinuity
as of that date. Will there be turbulence because of unprepared automatic
trading systems? Or is this an easy data change that anybody that matters
is ready for?

As Julian Walmsley says, "US investors holding any of these securities will
have to be ready. This is not "just a new currency". Quotation and accrual
conventions are changing, equity par values may change ( important as
regards preference shares ) and there are a host of detailed issues such as
new securities numbering of French government bonds."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:17 - ID#31868)
hMMMMMMMMM...$3,000.00 on the line and I laugh...silly humans...3 quarts of Cuervo
and if I am standing...suggest a charity...this boy's money is done...what a twit...I'm thinkin them folks in Central America...yup...

Oh yeah, it won't go through some quasi-non-profit sewer pipe of an agency...them folks will get it...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:20 - ID#432130)
Bubble Dow...
...I thought I was wrong about the Dow being doomed to the Bear by this time. I can now clearly see that the Market performance this past month is a classic "Bubble", floating upward on Hydrogen instead of Helium. "Emerging Markets" are the "Bic Lighters"!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:39 - ID#423380)
Start buying up those gold mining shares boys and girls, as IMHO we will all be rewarded
generously, for our patience, within the next 3-4 months.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:42 - ID#423380)
But GIBBOUS, what brings you to this conclusion?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:44 - ID#348129)
Major plunge in oil, and it looks like it's taking Gold part way with it
( who said ANOTHER was wrong about the Oil/Gold connection? ) .
Gold down another 1.30 !
The arabs will has to cut oil production or they may as well be giving it away. Idiot are cutting their own throats ( and their bank accounts ) .
OH YES.... FED will NOT cut tomorrow --- could be very rough on the DOW.
Anyone wanna buy some internet shares tonight ???

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:48 - ID#333126)
Gore's not popular in Malaysia tonight

well, at the very least, not amongst the ruling party...hehe

(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:52 - ID#404410)
JP@Agree that we need more spirituality in this country.
And I'm not talking about New Age stuff. As it is said, "Give me that old time religion."


(Mon Nov 16 1998 21:57 - ID#333126)
Saddam raises the stakes

hehe.... great international poker game

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:00 - ID#333126)
Moody's cuts Japan's credit ratings

only Aa1 now? awww...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:02 - ID#350288)
I want one of those dogs. Could you possibly breed yours and sell me a pup?
Honestly though, I have been thinking like your dog for years.
I dont care though as I am determned to ride this gold bear as long as it takes because some day, some day paper will burn.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:14 - ID#432395)
@mapleman--3-4 months your going to be much happier!--Dog won't breed--Gay Mutt!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:22 - ID#45173)
The Economist says AG shouldn't lower rates
The worlds forgotten danger

IM FOREVER blowing
bubbles, pretty bubbles in the air.
They fly so high, nearly reach the
sky, then like my dreams they
fade and die . . .  American
investors and consumers would
be wise to heed the old song: the
stockmarket bubble that has lifted
the prosperity of many Americans
beyond their wildest dreams is,
sooner or later, going to end. In
the past four years, soaring share
prices and easy credit have sent
consumers and businesses on a
spending binge. Their excesses
now leave Americas economy vulnerable to a sharp
slowdownand maybe even to a recession.

Regular readers will recall that this is not the first time The
Economist has fretted about Americas bubble economy. In
April we suggested that there were worrying signs of an
asset-price bubble in the United States: soaring share prices, a
frothy property market and excessive monetary growth. Some
air was let out of Wall Street when share prices tumbled
during the summer. Yet the market has since bounced back by
almost a fifth, taking it to within 5% of its peak in July. This
is proof, say some analysts, that the market was not
overvalued after all. Well, maybe. More likely, it makes the
American stockmarket a very risky place indeed.

Barely a month ago the world, it was claimed, faced its worst
financial crisis for more than 50 years, with emerging
economies collapsing like dominoes and a credit crunch
looming in America. Was it all just a nasty dream? It is true
that global prospects now look a bit brighter. Asias
financialif not its economiccrisis seems to be over, for
now; the IMFs coffers have been topped up, paving the way
for a rescue package for Brazil; Americas credit markets are
functioning fairly freely again. Perhaps best of all, Alan
Greenspan has cut interest rates twice and is expected to cut
again next week. Mr Greenspan, having delivered more than
seven years of inflation-free growth, is again revered by
financial markets. Once again, he seems to have worked a

The trouble with bubbles

The weaknesses of emerging economies do indeed look less
of a threat than they did. Yet the biggest worry lies not in Asia
or Latin America, but in the United States. It is often believed
that Americas expansion can continue without recession
because inflation is not a worry. Previous expansions have
come to an end because the Fed was forced to raise interest
rates to check inflation. In contrast, it is argued, there is now
plenty of room to cut interest rates if necessary. So if the Fed
plays its cards right, the American expansion can continue,
albeit with a period of more moderate growth.

This is wishful thinking, based on excessive faith in the
powers of central banks in general, and of Mr Greenspan in
particular ( see article ) . Even in a low-inflation world,
private-sector behaviour can produce boom-and-bust cycles
that central bankers are unable to control, as Japan discovered
in the late 1980s and emerging Asia did in the first half of the
1990s. And even though Americas inflation rate is low, the
economy shows clear signs of cyclical excess.

Share-price gains and easy credit have allowed too many
consumers to dream too easily of a Ferrarior at least of a
new Ford Taurusin their garage. Consumer spending has
risen almost twice as fast as income over the past four years,
as capital gains have encouraged consumers to run down past
savings and to expand their borrowings. Consumer credit is at
a record level as a percentage of disposable income.

The most striking evidence of why this cannot last is that total
household saving turned negative in September for the first
time in 60 years. Companies have also been borrowing
heavily to finance capital investment. As a result, the
combined private saving rate ( the gap between total private
income and spending ) has fallen to levels well below anything
ever seen before in America ( see article ) .

Clearly, spending cannot exceed income for ever. The
share-price gains which have been driving growth must,
eventually, come to an end. And, at some point, people will
decide that it might after all be better if they were to spend a bit
less than their income rather than a bit more. The only
questions are when and how. Corporate investment is already
sagging in response to weaker profits, and consumer spending
has slowed slightly, though it is still rising faster than income.
The endie, the readjustment of this imbalanceneed not
come soon. But it would be better, for America at least, if it
did. The lower the saving rate falls the harder it will be for the
Fed to stave off, or moderate, a recession.

The turnaround does not necessarily have to happen with a
crash. Consumer spending might merely slow, allowing a
normal saving rate to be restored gradually over a period of
years. That would mean several years of slower growth than
Americans have grown accustomed to, but no recession, or at
least not a severe or prolonged one. Even so, it is as well to be
aware of the risks: history suggests that blow-outs more often
end with a bang than a whimper.

No time to cut

Optimists insist that growth can still be sustained, so long as
the Fed continues to cut interest rates. In a typical downturn,
consumer spending and investment are squeezed by a rise in
interest rates in response to rising inflation; and, when rates
are then cut, spending rebounds. This time, however, the
initial brake on the economy is coming from a deteriorating
balance of trade. Meanwhile, the sectors that are most
sensitive to interest-rate cutshousing, consumer durables
and capital spendingare already over-extended. Lower
interest rates, intended to offset the effect of slowing exports,
may therefore do little to encourage consumers to spend and
borrow more.

A more pertinent question is whether a rate cut is now
appropriate at all. The risk is that it could simply inflate the
bubble even more, leading to an even louder bang later.
Instead, the Fed should probably try to nudge a turnaround
into happening sooner rather than later. The only means at its
disposal is a decision to confound markets expectations and
leave rates where they are.

The big lesson of the past few months is that central bankers
are not, after all, infallible. Even Mr Greenspans ability to
control the economy is more limited than widely believed. It is
conceivable that he may yet keep America growing. But the
risks are now high that the economy will tip into some sort of
a recessionand that fickle investors and consumers will
suddenly see Mr Greenspan in a rather less favourable light.
That will be a shame: dealing with bubbles is far from easy.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:33 - ID#288155)
Sharefin, re: "equity par values may change"
yes! the only country 'ready' is...guess....Germany--passed legislation all par values nil...nil converted to nil is nil. Have you noticed we seem to be living in the Age of Gertrude Stein? {:- ) )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:33 - ID#31868)
gulp and a pufff, namaste'
Today I had the pleasure of speaking with the fin that shares...the voice of kindness...good sort there...yup...uh huh...a privilege...and prior to blood reaching his brain it would flow through His heart...and provide a splash which would overrun logic allowing corners to see round for the first time...

There is Hope...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:44 - ID#320202)
JP--Thirty years from now, I expect crude oil to be selling for $200+ bbl.
and you believe the world will need it than?
I don't think so, and I hope it does not for the sake of my children !

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:44 - ID#43460)
Golden thread?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:51 - ID#348129)
@Just for the hell of it.........
I typed in and sure enough.... Check it out !!!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:51 - ID#43460)
Manufacturing boom in northern Mexico?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:52 - ID#432395)
@lady_bug--If were not still using oil thirty years from now, you and I will be
sitting on a log somewhere in the woods, spear in hand, wondering where
our next meal is coming from!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:54 - ID#45173)
Repost: New Poll on Rates
Will Greenspan lower rates tomorrow? If you haven't already, please vote using the link below. Thx!

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:58 - ID#210282)
More on Leonid shower, complements of Temple-Tuttle
All: The satellite companies consider this a serious matter. My guess is that the odds of communication disruption is unlikely, unless a key satellite is hit. Probably only a few at riaks at any one time. However, there may be more disruption from the fact that many will be off-line -- I am not a satellite specialist, but I would guess that it takes more than an hour to inactivate ( protect ) or activate a satellite.

As some have said with Y2k, the perception of a ( potential ) problem may be as serious as the problem. But then - the satellite companies are entitled to protect their expensive devices.


Please click on the second url -- for some reason the 'echo' url works, but not the primary url. Some character transmtted by ABC to avoid what I just did, I think. We may have a nice view of the shower after midnight tonight to dawn Tuesday or Wednesday in the Western Hemisphere. Austrailians ( and aurator ) -- please calulate the time --- I'm afraid to screw it up for you! NorthWestern Australia should be ideal, I hear.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:58 - ID#432395)
Leave unchanged---75%.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:59 - ID#25490)
I guess that's one of those real safe predictions, POI in 30 yrs. Who'll recall it, know or care? But I am most comforted we have a seer here.
For my take? I'll put my neck and reputation on the line, I'll guess: 12 New Creds per bbl. in 2028.

I'll even dress it in verse:

When lions return to skies at night,
A lamb will sing a dreadful carol.
Noone will credit aurator's foresight:
"Oil at twelve new seas a barrel."


(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:59 - ID#25257)
Thanks Ravenfire
I see the error of my ways. Instead of Arafat playing his AK-47, it's Sergeyev playing "My Dog Has Fleas" on his AK while Bill and Arafat Hum arm-in-arm in the Background--each wearing his Houndstooth Dishrag of course. What a Team! Ned-and-Yahoo where are You?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 22:59 - ID#333126)
Russian ruble hasn't stopped sliding yet

i think i hear the train coming ...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:09 - ID#210282)
EURO - Planned Obsolescence?
sharefin: What do you have on the switch to the EURO and Y2K? Could part of the game be that the financial system in Europe will be forced to switch over to the EURO because the old systems will fail, and the new Y2K EURO will not?

The EURO will fail due to differential inflation rates if the member countries hang on to their currencies too long. We know that the idea can work in principle as the US has all 50 states with one currency, and one inflation rate.

Perhaps the choice of Jan 1999 was not coincidental. But it does sound like the process might be a bit traumatic.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:10 - ID#25257)
Continued Hockadoo
I used to think that chasing SoDamnInsane in my F-15 along the Sands of the Bekah Valley whilst shooting Nuclear tracers would be fun, but now that Billy C. can Do-It-All and Lie-All-The-Time--with Everybody Believing Him All-The-Time-According-To-The-Insane-Media, These are mere Parlor Games. What could be more fun than to Sit By The Tube All Day Waiting For Somebody With A Brain To Drill This CHURL With A Big Silver Slug?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:15 - ID#25490)
well that "discussion" is narry worth a golden minute of a life. What a hateful waste of time.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:17 - ID#45173)
If we're as good at predicting AG's next move on rates tomorrow
as we were at guessing how gold spot prices ended last week, there's gonna be a lot of unhappy 401K investors by the end of his week.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:18 - ID#333126)
those Japanese haven't stopped buying bonds...

as what goes up must come down ( as olde Newton would say ) , do buyers have to become sellers someday?

God forbid... hehehe...

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:25 - ID#210282)
Japanese buying US or EURO bonds?
ravenfire: Why did the US dollar go down today? Any idea? I don't have a clue. Markets up -- prediction is ST rates to stay the same. What do the currency traders know?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:32 - ID#25257)
Red Heifer
Could be time?

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:35 - ID#244418)
Derivative Exposure of Banks
"The following table demonstrates the breakdown by category of risk exposure for the 8 banks with the highest derivative positions held. The columns have the following meanings: Assets is the total assets of each bank, Derivs is the total derivative exposure ( all expirations ) , One Year is the total derivative exposure that expires in less than one year, Equity is the banks exposure to the stock markets, and 30% Corr is the amount of derivative loss if the stock markets suffer a 30% correction within one year.

[table of banks derivatve exposure shown here on the website--see below for URL]

"One you can see, if Chase were to suffer a 10% loss in the derivative exposure which expires in less than one year, their entire asset base would be wiped out. For JPMorgan it would only take an 11% loss to wipe out their asset base.

"For the banks exposure to only the stock markets, JPMorgan leads the pack. If stocks suffer a market correction of 30%, JPMorgan could stand to lose $16.2 Billion. And, that's only their equity derivative exposure with an expiration of less than one year. If the stock markets entered into a long-term bear market lasting 5 years or more, JPMorgan's exposure would be $76 Billion and a 30% correction over that time could result in a loss of $22.8 Billion."

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:37 - ID#333126)
JTF @ US dollars
pop quiz - why does the US$ keep its value so well when all that makes a piece of US$ paper different from a piece of Japanese or Russian or Brazilian or Indonesian paper is the type of ink used and the patterns inscribed into it?

it's all a matter of confidence. belief. faith.

ahhh.... but what does it take to make Joe Sixpack question his beliefs?


I have no idea why the US$ went down yesterday ( today, whatever ) , but I believe EJ in that the kitco community is likely ( the 73% majority that voted for no change ) to be correct in predicting A. Greenspan's actions tomorrow.

We should have a gold price poll on kitco every week... hehe :- )

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:53 - ID#45173)
I guess I never thought about it
Tonight received yet another call from a non-profit telemarketing company trying to sell me a magazine subscription to support a charity. I asked the very pleasant and friendly girl from Tennesee what my options are. She rattled off a bunch of magazines I'd never read: TV Guide, People, Time, etc. I asked if she had The Economist or the Atlantic Monthly. She explained that they were only able to offer magazines that are popular among folks who most often donate money. So I ask her why she thinks none of the magazines I mentioned are popular among those who donate. She paused for a moment and then said, "Well, I've been doing charity collection for various organizations for about ten years. And I don't know how to say this so it sounds nice but the magazines you mention, well those are magazines are read by well-off and better educated people and they don't donate. It's the working class folks who do all the donations."

I bet that's true, statistically speaking.

(Mon Nov 16 1998 23:58 - ID#333126)
Emile Zola's newsletter cracks me up
especially the Politically Incorrect Comix

this week's issue is pretty good. go read it.