Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:03 - ID#35757)
Why should Asia be happy? Now we have more credit to buy more of their cheap stuff?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:08 - ID#153110)
@100 Euro Gold Coin
Is this lighting matches amidst the fumes of Euro ink ?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:09 - ID#433172)
Fed rate
From what I understand from watching CNN a member of the fed came right out and said the cut was made out of consideration for the " Global Economy". Makes sense from that point of view ( cheaper dollar ) but that's extending the concept of the fed a little maybe. Maybe they have to?

I was disapointed, voted no change, don't bite off more than you can chewe I always say, or mabe the bite will chew you.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:18 - ID#225236)
Mozel, Morbius Wood as fuel
Here is your link:

You can back up through this link, but the one I gave you is the most important. The whole business as science ( biomass energy ) still exists but not on a level where somebody would actually consider selling a wood-powered generator. On that page you will find a list of publications ( I ordered all of them ) . They include complete drawings of vehicle engine conversion systems as well as methods to measure and control gas quality, statistics, etc.

Again, if you actually get to converting a generator, DO LET ME KNOW, especially if you hang around So.Cal, Nevada,Utah neck of the woods.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:21 - ID#153110)
@Asian Prices
Are just too high. Television sets should be $20.00 tops.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:25 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Petronius -- Where would one get a mountain of wood chips? Then, where does one put it.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:25 - ID#35757)
Thank you. Nevada here. Look forward to exploring this further.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:35 - ID#290202)
@Goldilocks...........& EJ

Goldilocks: Thank you, that was the forgotten information I was striving

to recall.

...EJ: Jolly good!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:38 - ID#225236)
"Petronius -- Where would one get a mountain of wood chips? Then, where does one put it."

Having a couple of acres of growing wood chips would help ( they seem to store themselves just fine ) . Maybe the words "wood chips" were not the most appropriate. The Swedish conversions required wood pellets of specific size to guarantee performance at different power requirements in converted cars ( going up-hill vs. going down-hill ) . I highly suspect that for a steady state, stationary generator ( full open throttle, steady load if you use it to recharge a battery bank ) you just might get away with the same kind of stuff you put into a fireplace, especially if you use EGO sensor based closed loop control.

Morbius: I will be in touch through E-mail as soon as I have something working or before that.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:38 - ID#290202) gen...
Eldo...What kind of batteries, & hook up?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:42 - ID#190411)
I detect another acid comment directed at me.
When I suggested that you have a look at Zola Times, I inferred that you could elevate their level of commentary, were you to do a guest commentary, on occaision.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:43 - ID#411163)
SIOP-Genatec ( sp ) makes a unit 8,000w that runs on Gasoline-propane or natural gas for US$1,600.00
Zeke-how much for that 12,000w tractor driven unit?
Pete-lots of good advice for/about everything. One thing I would like to add. I live where it gets 20 degrees below zero. No way you can stay
here without being 100% self suficient. There is no way the average person can do this. The alterative is to evacuate the northern half of North America. Something is going to have to give. If you put so much into being 100% what will you stay here or there for? Answer?? maybe you will have to leave the $7,000 answer and move south? I', still thinking about that one.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:50 - ID#35757)
Please make it before that. I may have something to contribute.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:50 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Savage -- Actually, sharefin has many,many site links where one can find a lot of power generating info. But basically, one wants to use a decent bank of deep-cycle type batteries to power the inverter ( s ) . Golf-cart or fork-lift type batteries. Hook up the cells to any voltage configuration required. Charge them from a generator, photo-voltaics, wind, water, or what-have-you. Sharefins URL:

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:52 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Petronius -- Thanks for the info. Interesting...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:53 - ID#190411)
Eastern Markets
algore in Malaise/ia ..... Maylay mkt -1.38%
no algore in Japan........ Nippon mkt +1.39%
Clinton to Japan next week, will Al tag along?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 00:57 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Rack -- You need an underground house if your going to stay up there!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:14 - ID#287358)
Televisions will be $20.00 on any streetcorner in any big city, U.S.A., in January, 2000, with occasional "preview sales" before then. I think there is a good chance that *none* will be *sold* by stores in January, and *none* will be bought at full price.

Eldo, the best deal I've found on deep cycle batteries is at Costco. They sell it as "marine- deep cycle, 750 and 850 amps. Price is about $48.00.
If anyone can tell me why not to buy these, please do so now. I think they'll work just fine for my electric forklift during good times, also.

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:16 - ID#24135)
Gasification ..
genral Mozel ..
comes from eating too much corn
and beans .. dont know about wood
chips .. are they tasty ?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:21 - ID#25490)
Lots of wild animals hereabouts....
I am sure wood chips can't taste worse than buffalo chips. My email ain't working, was gonna email this to you, it being rather pass now...I composed it a few spins ago...

your Nov 15 00:64 on wild animals taking toll of illegal immigrants reminded me of an unsuccessful NZ contender for the Darwin Awards a few years ago.
A spotty youth dressed gothic ( you know, ear/lip/nipple pierced and in all snarly and in black ) was rescued from the lions enclosure at Auckland zoo one evening a couple of years ago. It seems he took a short cut over the 10 bars and through the Lions Den, rather than walk around the outside like other people.

He lost an arm to the lion, which is how he managed to get out. Mr Lion was chewing on the arm and otherwise left the fella alone.
Give Lions right arms, I say...

I wonder if we can get them to dress up like wardens?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:27 - ID#341227)
No interest rate action for two years....AND NOW???? DESPERATION!
The turkey sandwich aka Greenspan sat back and calmly sipped his coffee for two years, watching the equities market move into a de facto state of sheer verticality. He listened in dumb silence while New Paradigm exponents expounded on the New we entered a new chapter in history in which past rationality was actually all nonsense. All the while, he smiled wanly, applauding the fast developing market hysteria which is now culminating in 400-500% up moves in internet stocks per diem.

I say culminating because, the sudden THREE interest rate cuts in a period of one month should do anything but comfort equities/bonds investors. The US economic train is out of control, the tracks now being ripped up by exogenous economic forces that America can simply no longer keep outside its borders.

The desperation behind Greenspan's sudden spate of interest rate cuts is transparent. Yet, it seems like it is too little too late.

The saddest thing is that, if the market crashes, people will always remember that Greenspan sat by and allowed the mess to develop...and only took action once the filthy rich Wall Street piglets who bought and paid for his ass and his years of "inaction" cried, "Daddy, help us...we might actually lose money for the first time in three years! There are big bullies out there shorting our stocks and buying gold and they actually might stand a chance of hurting us this time. Daddy, you always FIXED things for us in the past so don't let us down. You've always come out to the playground and made sure that it is never level, placing us way at the top of the monkey bars while sticking the stock shorts and goldbugs in a big hole. We made so much damn money from loser trades by goldbugs and equities shorts this past decade...we owe it all to you and our big brother, Rubin, sure helped too. Daddy, can you imagine...the goldbugs and stock shorts actually were stupid enough to think you would let the market fall for more than a day or two! Ha, ha, ha. Still, As much money as we've made at those guys' expense, we were never satisfied and we leveraged our butts beyond description so we could keep making more. Daddy, oh, daddy, come save us from the consequences of our greed and stupidity! Thanks especially for intervening on that LTCM thing so we need never face the negative consequences of all our over-leveraged, idiot, money-losing investments. Also, thanks for all the inside info you keep passing to us about your future economic actions. We would hate to face those goldbugs and equities shorts on anything other than the uneven playing field you've created for us. After all, those stock shorts and goldbugs are getting more fearless with each passing day and we think they're going to punch out our lights soon."



(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:31 - ID#411163)
Eldorado-Your right about an underground house up here
That was my point-why put $7,000 into a system you will probably have to abandon? But, then you are talking about half of North America-it will never happen! I would guess the Feds would force power and light generation for us northern folks and let the southerners sweat. Worst case would be the need to store some fuel, say a couple weeks worth, and figure on brownouts. ie no clean computer power. That would be the worst case-no kitco, total lack of information. that would be the worst

(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:38 - ID#411163)
John Disney-gasification. That reminds me of a job I was on
last year.The owner walked into the room-real nice guy. I told him to watch where he stepped. " I just farted" then right behind him is his
#1 girlfriend. Bad thing that. I could feel the heat in the back of my knee's and just a hint of moisture. She got her hair curled and never left the room. Ya, got to watch out for that gasification stuff

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:40 - ID#24135)
The Economist say ..
to all ..
US industrial production .. for September was 2.4%
year-on-year with the latest 3 months at -0.1%
Similar data for August was 3.1% year-on-year and the
latest 3 months annualized at -1.8%.
US economy is declining but maybe leveling out.
Greeney should have and did cut rates ..

Combined Data for 11 Euro countries ..
for july .. annual IP 4.3% year on year and 4.5%
last 3 months annualized ..

for june annual IP 3.2% year on year with last
3 months annualized at 3.2%.

European economy seems to be growing .. expect euro
curremcies to be strong versus US $.
US broad money supply in september rose 10.3 % YOY
while narrow rose 0.7 % .
US broad money supply in AUGUST rose 9.4 % YOY
while narrow fell 0.1%..

US is pumping Money

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 01:53 - ID#24135)
Animals are stand up guys ..
Salty .
That story is similar to one I reported about a year
ago when an armed black guy fleeing police took
short cut through the gorilla enclosure at the joburg
zoo .. it was the home of BIG MAX .. Max made citizen's
arrest .. although he was wounded in the process ..
became local hero .. with serious movement for him
to run for mayor of Joburg ..
... Felon later escaped from police .. Max is waiting..
next time he wont turn him over.

for rack ..
sometimes called a "wet one"

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:17 - ID#25490)
Yar. I remember vigilante Max.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:23 - ID#267298)
Rambling thoughts
I am no economic guru, not even very knowledgeable in these
matters, but, I smell something "ROTTEN" going on here.
Greenspan, the guy who "CAUTIONED" against "Irrational
Exuberance" when the DOW was at what ? 6500 or so, now
lowers rates with the DOW at 9000 and Internet stocks trading
at P/E's that are in never, never land, and a myriad of other stocks
that are plainly trading at Irrationaly Exuberant prices.

Now, this same guy says lets get these stocks higher, lets get
even more Irrationaly Exuberant. Why would a man with AG's
stature take actions that are in a complete 360 degree difference
with words he uttered just two year's ago ? Words uttered when it
was not common knowledge that about one-half of the the world
was close to economic collapse. The man is as Farfel says, DESPERATE. All is not well in the economic world.

Liken his situation to a man in a lifeboat with a hole in it taking in
water faster than one can possibly bail the water out, the boat is
going down, no matter what. Better to try to swim 100 miles to shore
wearing concrete boots than just sit and go down with the boat. I
hope Greenspan has a strong backstrock.

I have no idea what the problem ( s ) is/are but, It/they have to be

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:37 - ID#254288)

Retiring soon; can't have things fail during his watch. Then theres big money interests to serve, both domestic and foreign. Let the next guy repair the damage.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:37 - ID#240288)

Recall another RSA "officer of the law". Remember that crocodile? "I am delaw". ( urp )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:38 - ID#226299)
@the scene
DBog -- We are ALL now one big fat and 'happy' inter-dependent world. ALL of the major, and many minor economies, are now in the same boat. The name of it may be the Titanic. Being that the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, the Feds cannot just look at the economy of the US, as it is SO dependent on the economies of the rest. Falling exports and profits are an example of same. Lowering rates may be damaging here ( in some minds ) , but lowering rates given the very high debt climate is the least they should do to keep their CONfidence game going. All in all though, there is NO way to grow out of the debt cycle. If that could have been the case, we ALL would have seen it happening over the last several years. The best they can do is to buy time. Probably little at this point. They have to continue to pump cheap and cheaper money out as long as they can. Eventually, regardless of the rates, way to many will be tapped out of further credit anyway. This has gone a long way already as seen by a negative savings rate. Think more globally and you will find a better sense of the Feds 'adjustments'.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 02:58 - ID#226299)
@the scene
DBog -- To continue on a stock track, there is now nothing to say that the 'exuberance' of the stock markets will continue, but not saying it won't either. The point being that perceptions will rise that the continuing of lowering rates will be hurting the dollar value, bond values, and give pause, as a sense of a big inflationary expansion of the money supply is in the works ( not that it hasn't been anyway, but... ) . Markets typically look ahead, even if exuberantly. As it moves in one direction, it can also take very very little time for it to turn tail. I'm thinking another 'problem' will arise shortly. Look out for the next crisis. They'll be hard-pressed to find another bailout package. I'm thinking they've used up, or almost used up, all of their ammo.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:00 - ID#284255)
Milne on a rant
Get Out Of Populated Areas NOW!

Belasco Shoves His Head Further Up His Own Ass


Many other good ones.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:04 - ID#284255)
J Stack
In what was a surprise move, but not really a surprise move, the Federal
Reserve FOMC cut both the Discount Rate and the Federal Funds Rate another
1/4% today. As measured by interest rate spreads, this represented the first
TRUE easing by the Fed. Ironically, most market indexes AND the bond market
fell on today's news.

Regardless of the Federal Reserve's reasons, the monetary climate is
outright bullish for stocks. Based not on the size of the move, but on the
message it sends, we should be prepared to see new highs over the
near-term - at least in the blue chip indexes. The danger is that it puts
Wall Street right back into the bubble -and potential crash scenario- that
had Greenspan so worried over the past two years. Obviously, the Fed is
willing to take that risk if it means getting the global economy on a stable
foothold... if even temporarily.

Bottomline, the old adage is "you don't fight the Fed". And the Federal
Reserve is desperately trying to reinflate

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:05 - ID#284255)
Watch out, Welfare

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:06 - ID#284255)
Elephant's member causes trouble at UN
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 17 ( AFP ) - There was panic at the United
Nations on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's unveiling of a bull elephant
statue with a life-size sexual organ.

A senior UN official was worried that the member's large
proportions might upset children visiting the United Nations, UN
sources said.

Various scenarios were being discussed, including radical
surgery on the bronze statue, the sources said.

UN chief Kofi Annan is due to unveil the statue, which is a gift
from the governments of Kenya, Namibia and Nepal, in the UN

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:08 - ID#284255)
The Ticking Clock on The Euro: No Way to Meet the Deadline

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:22 - ID#234406)
I along with millions of traders waited for news yesterday on what action the Fed would take on interest rates. When the news came I determined to move a good chunk of mutual fund money from cash funds to equities at the end of the day ( since you get end of day settlement prices anyway ) .

CONDIDER THIS ... If the Fed was concerned that millions might do this, they could head it off by having the PPT sell heavily into the market at precisely 3:45 PM. Yes, they could have done this and the result could be positive. We get whatever benefits that reduced interest rates deliver without exuberently increasing the equity bubble.

It worked for me. I held up on my orders. Perhaps the market will now proceed in an orderly way instead of zipping to 10,000 by Monday.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:29 - ID#240288)
Starr Wars-- Update

Starr's testimony to the House Judiciary Committee, in about 30 hours, is something to keep an eye on. Could lay out some serious obstruction of justice charges including perjury, witness tampering, and intimidation.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 03:45 - ID#252391)
South African golds....
open unchanged and are starting a drift higher @ 1016. Resumption of uptrend would be signaled with a close at 1035+, about 2% above current levels.

PT is up $2 at $352 putting a good face on its revival. PD goes from neutral to positive on some widly followed tech system at $282.

Nice to see all those little green arrows on the metal prices even though the quote is a little old.

Suspect we are about to depart on a steady rising precious metal market moved along by lower interest rates, abundant dollars world wide, troubles in Russia, troubles for Clinton, and possibly safety flight from sagging stock markets in Europe and American.

Doubt the financial press will pay much attention, and continue to get the facts wrong as the Nightly Business Report did when referring to SWC as a gold mining company.

Watch for gold to take out last week's highs having declined for three days while holding last week's lows. The rise will be slow and steady . . . that's my humble conclusion.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:01 - ID#258195)
Monday's and Tuesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Tuesday 17 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.61---------------4.31-------------3.91-----------------3.57
Gold Lease Rate---0.67---------------1.10-------------1.28-----------------1.52
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( + 0.02 ) ------ ( + 0.02 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.20--------------3.35-------------2.50-----------------2.25
Silver Lease Rate---1.08--------------2.06--------------2.69-----------------2.84
( Change ) -------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( + 0.05 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ---------- ( + 0.05 )
Please note the above data are for the London Close. The US Fed subsequently cut interest rates by 0.25%

For Monday 16 Nov calculated from data published in Tuesday's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.62---------------4.33-------------3.93-----------------3.57
Gold Lease Rate---0.66---------------1.08-------------1.26-----------------1.52
( Change ) ----- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.03 ) ------ ( + 0.03 ) ----------- ( + 0.03 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.20--------------3.40-------------2.50-----------------2.30
Silver Lease Rate---1.08--------------2.01--------------2.69-----------------2.79
( Change ) -------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( + 0.05 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ---------- ( - 0.05 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:04 - ID#386245)
Finnie@I am moving to Antarctica tomorrow!!!
"If you stay, and you are wrong, meaning that the full consequences of Y2K kick in, you and your family die. Is it really worth the gamble? Or would you rather spend some money and ASSURE your children a chance to live?" --
Paul Milne

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:23 - ID#386245)
a ) Paul Milne is crazy
b ) Paul Milne is a lifesaver.
Your call. Cheers, N.
"There is not one electric utility on the face of the earth that is compliant. Is that 'hysteria'? Not one water utility. 'Hysteria'? Not one gas utility. Is that 'hysteria'? Not one major Airline. What about that,is that 'hysteria'? Not one airport. More 'hysteria'? Not one automobile manufacturer. Is that 'hysteria' too? Not one multi-national manufacturer. Come on, is that 'hysteria'? Not one major city in the world. Tell me if that is that 'hysteria'? Banks? Name one. 'Hysteria'?

Yet, Howie the Moron says 'don't prepare'.

The Department of defense is failing miserably. What is Belasco looking at? The most recent 10K filings from the SEC are absolutely DISMAL. Many do not even mention Y2K even though they are SPECIFICALLY required to do so. Belasco ignores this. He ignores all of the information that the remediation is a total global failure. It does not matter if half of the utilites can function. It only takes as little one to fail to throw the whole thing into chaos. Worldwide, banking is in disastrous shape. CSC related that if only ONE foreign exchange bank fails the costs would be up to ten BBBBILLION the first week alone. None of them are ready.

A survey from the State of California shows that less than 30% of the 466 cities that they requested information from have even made a Y2K budget. Only 130 have even allocated funds. Out of 466 surveyed. On top of that only about 325 responded.

Yet Belasco continuously spews the Pollyanna claptrap of one of the most insidiously blind Pollyannas of them all, Harlan 'Synergystic Mitigation' Smith.

Should I go on? OK, I will. Both Canada and England both have extensive plans for calling out the military to stem the consequences of Y2K. Is 'just have some hard copies of records' and 'don't stock up any food' or be called an 'hysteric', sound comensurate with plans to call out the military?

Do you think when the rest of the world's economies collapse, that that will not be harshly felt here? Our economy is INEXTRICABLY wound up with the rest of the world. When they go, we go. Its that simple.

Japan holds over a trillion dollars in US treasuries. When the go over the cliff and try to redeem them, can you guess what happens? Can you say bye-bye?

Russia has NO Y2K budget AT ALL. One hundred and seventy MILLION people in an already collapsed economy. Bangaladesh with Nuclear weapons.

China did not EVEN start remediating their electric utilities until October. That's right, last month. Indonesia, the same.

The Phillipines does not even yet have a Y2k budget.

Not one OPEC country is even close.

Israel is in the top five best prepared countries and one of their Government Ministers says that they are *so* ill prepared that they have only 'divine' intervention to rely upon.

Belasco says you don't need to be 'hysterical' and have enough food for your children.

On average, european countries have only spent 10% of their Y2K budgets according to Andy Kite. 275 working days to go and 90% of their budgets to spend.

Another recent survey says that US companies are further ahead of Eurpoean companies and LESS confident that they will be ready. Why? Because, the survey states, that the US, being so much further along, recognizes how bad it really is and the European countries, being so far behind, are still blindly optimistic in their ignorance of the real scope and magnitude of the problems.

Then we have the implemantation of the Euro in about 40 days. Europe is utterly unprepared for this and it may very easily send them into an economic tailspin.

On top of all of this, we do not have until Jan 1 2000. Canada and japan and NY Stae flip over to fiscal year 2000 on April first 1999. Only about 100 days from now. Then on July 1 1999, 46 US States flip over to Fiscal year 2000. We don't have until 2000 to get it done.

Howie says preparation is the sign of an 'hysteric'.

Belasco is a sick bastard. He is a proven liar and plagiarist, as seen in this newsgroup when he stole form one of the posters. Joy Haftel, and published it as his own work.

So you go right ahead and believe that this unmitigated butthead has assessed the situation properly. Go right ahead and do not prepare for the worst. Stay in the cities, not being able to name ONE that will be ready. Don't stock up on food, not having ANY assurance whatsoever that enough food will be available. Trust the lives of your CHILDREN to Howard Belasco, the liar and plagiarst. Put the very lives of your children into his hands. That is MUCH better than being called an 'hysteric', isn't it? And heaven forbid that you should ak him to provide ANY evidence at all. Just trust his platitudes and rhetoric as he 'soothes' you to sleep as if he was rubbing an alligator's belly.

You will be so much more calm. You will be able to sleep at night. You won't have to upset your life and make any useless preparations. And you can make all your little plans and calculate your net worth and figure if you can afford that new Lexus.

But, you will be just as dead in another year and a half, when you find out how wrong Howie was. Oh, and by the way, Howie will not be there to help you out of the mess." --
Paul Milne

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:28 - ID#284255)
Savage Question for.....any y2k chaos experts (Sharefin, Squirrel, Shek, et al)
Just reading back on past posts and noticed your comments.

As far as I can perceive from reading all the reports out.
I would not go for the generator option except as a backup.
I'd rather follow up on a longer term type of power supply.
ie. Solar or Hydro
Wind is too unreliable.

Be it that the power supply is going to be down for a long time then all generators which run on fuel, have a high initial cost with restrictions on fuel supply.
There is everychance that the power supply could be down for a long time.
Why spend all that money on a system that could run out of fuel after a month or so.

A solar or hydro system will supply you with the energy that you need for many years.

Who thinks that if the power grid is down for a couple of months that it will be rectified easily after the date?
How will they get spare parts if there is no transport?
How will they be able to turn on the computers, to fix the problems, if there is no power?
After the power has been down for a month, reserves for generators will be close to non existant.

It a catch 22 situation.
No power - no ability to fix the problems.
And after resources have been depleted - no generators etc.

It's like the system is broken.
If tomorrow was the rollover - then the system would break.
And the talk coming out is that, the problems will not be able to be fixed with in the next 13 months.

So what chance do they have to fix the problems after the rollover?

The system is broken.
We just have to wait for the fuse to burn down.

13 months and less to prepare.^o-o^

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:54 - ID#26793)
Morning currency news and comment from London

(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:56 - ID#42114)
Try tripping your main power switch for several days and try to adjust to the situation. We are all so spoiled by modern conveniences that the majority who can not cope will panic. This is where an attitude adjustment is mandatory if one is to survive. What did society do 100-200 yrs ago? I gaurantee one and all, a $1000, $5000, $10,000 investment now will be worth $100,000 when the time arrives. It all amounts to the use of common sense, adjustment and prior practice to meet the challange no matter where you abide. Assume that all utilities will fail for an extended period. That fuel, water and other basic neccessities will be in shortage and unavailable. Run a basic family drill for one week under these conditions and you will learn FAST what is needed to survive. The well being of your family will be well served. Most will ignore the above and panic when the time is at hand. Will you be one of them?
Words to live by:

Scout Motto

The Scout motto is BE PREPARED. A Scout prepares for
whatever comes his way by learning all he can. He keeps himself
strong, healthy, and ready to meet the challenges of life.

Good luck to all Kitcohites,


(Wed Nov 18 1998 04:58 - ID#26793)
Details of LTCM hedge fund troubles starting to emerge.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:07 - ID#26793)
CIA moves against professor on China report.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:09 - ID#42114)
I do not expect that the Y2K crisis will last more than 1-2 months. Once the seriousness of the situation finally hits home, all stops will be pulled at any cost to rectify the situation. I.E., utilities can be run manually on a temporary basis with enough manpower, etc. IMHO.

Good luck again Kitcoites ( Not Kitcohites, sorry ) ,


(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:12 - ID#26793)
China says it has the power to prevent a foreign debt service crisis

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:38 - ID#31868)
I really should not be allowed out in public...stark raving mad I question...and
on this day, Gabbrielle, a Birthday...such wonder filled eyes...Today this Big Dog will be wrapped and enveloped in Joy...and monkeys worldwide will raise a toast...step outside and feel the gentle breeze, the rush against your cheek is babies breath...

Cancel false head long and honest into the future...

I wish each and every one of you the kindness YOU deserve...

I kneel before you, candle ignited...

go, go into the world and take nothing save the smile you find on faces, bring that home...carry the full weight of that and we WILL win...

Thus this lesson endeth...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:52 - ID#284255)
And the US thought that Asia's woes wouldn't effect them.
Such is life.

No power for more than a month means that:
Oil will not flow.
Food will not be abundant.
Unemployment will go through the roof.
Many companies will go under.
Governments will fail.
Financial sytems will unravel.
Plus much more that you can't even think of.

Now just say to yourself.
"This couldn't happen to me."

++++ Gold will go much higher.
Production will be halted and demand will soar.^o-o^

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:54 - ID#203137)
What Chance has Gold Got?
Someone told me that if you buy gold jewelry in Indonesia and you want to cash it in, you will only be repaid the price that was originally paid. So anyone who bought gold two years ago at the $US/Rupiah rate
and needs to cash their gold for food will only get the same amount back now in cash. Can anyone confirm if this is the case.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 05:59 - ID#31868)
fin that shares...Namaste' gulps and puffs for you and the clan...
the phone device will ring soon...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:04 - ID#372276)
Are U.S. policy makers savvy enough to survive the Euro as ANOTHER sees it?
I really must depricate the following. Dont take it for anything other than it is, viz. the rank eruptions of an agitated imagination...

An excerpt from:-- Can the U.S. return to a Gold Standard?--by Alan Greenspan, September 1, 1981

"Convertibility can be instituted gradually by, in effect, creating a dual currency with a limited issue of dollars convertible into gold. Initially they could be deferred claims to gold, for example, five-year Treasury Notes with interest and principle payable in grams or ounces of gold."Alan Greenspan

[31 U.S.C. 5115]

" 5115. **** UNITED STATES currency NOTES ****

( a ) The Secretary of the Treasury may issue *United States currency

notes.* The notes -

( 1 ) are payable to bearer; and

( 2 ) shall be in a form and in denominations of at least one

dollar that the Secretary


( b ) The amount of United States currency notes outstanding and in

circulation -

( 1 ) may not be more than $300,000,000; and

( 2 ) may not be held or used for a reserve."

[note: United States notes are not the same as Federal Reserve notes. They are the last vestiges of the old Greenbacks issued to finance the Civil War. United States Notes have a gold reserve apparently.]

[12 USC 290] "The net earnings derived by the United States from Federal reserve banks shall, in the discretion of the Secretary, be used to supplement the GOLD RESERVE held against OUTSTANDING UNITED STATES NOTES, or shall be applied to the reduction of the outstanding bonded indebtedness of the United States under regulations to be prescribed by the Secretary of the Treasury." [Capitals added]

As for the Fed buying gold: no they would not, because it would all be shipped to the BIS of which the Fed has been a member since 1994. But it is not actually out of the question that the Treasury add to their gold reserves ( of which I take it at face value that there is some ) . Every year the Fed transfers net income after operating expenses, capital adequacy, and dividends from the Surplus Fund of the Fed to the General Fund of the Treasury. Probably as part of: The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993, was the following:--

[12 USC 289] "During fiscal years 1997 and 1998, any amount in the surplus fund of any Federal reserve bank in excess of the amount equal to 3 percent of the total paid-in capital and surplus of the member banks of such bank shall be transferred to the Board for transfer to the Secretary of the Treasury for deposit in the general fund of the Treasury."

Who and why decided in 1993 that there should be excess transfer payments in 1997 and 1998 for the already specified purposes of debt reduction or supplementing gold reserves I dont know.

Alan Greenspans Testimony before House Banking Committee 1998, "Im one of the rare people who hold some nostalgic view about the old Gold Standard."

[I must qualify however that I was under the impression that United States Notes were phased out in 1994. Anyway, as Ive said before I expected the statutory transfer of 1997-1998 to be a nominal $800 million. None of which I expect to be applied to backing U.S. notes with gold--unless some other savvy motive. But as I said, these are really just flights of fancy that I thought I would share with you to exercise your minds and entertain you tonight.]

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:11 - ID#31868)
Tamerlane, Namaste' gulp and a puff to soon as you stipulate "standards"
you have already lost our leaders...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:28 - ID#284255)
It has rang already.

Now if I could only get a beeper installed on Kitco ( ;- ) ) )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:38 - ID#284255)
FFIEC contingency plans

FFIEC Y2k homepage

All your friends live there. ;- )

Could this be real and not a fantasy?
Well worth a browse as to what these money meisters are doing.^o-o^

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:47 - ID#284255)
Planning for the future?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 06:54 - ID#288466)

(Wed Nov 18 1998 07:21 - ID#119358)'s another home economics tip from o'studio........
Don't eat buffalo or cow chips, for that matter, because it will give you a rash that you will never forget. It will change your will develop a squint in your left eye that won't ever go away. Yes, HIFI-IQ o'studio ate some one time to make point to some banque paribas dudes....and o'studio has really never been the same. oh that itch...yes, throw those chips....smash those chips.......burn those chips....maybe smoke those chips....but don't eat just one of those chips. g'dayO

(Wed Nov 18 1998 07:29 - ID#26793)
Hawaiian Supreme Court rules in Marcos gold case

(Wed Nov 18 1998 07:50 - ID#31868)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulps and puffs to the clan...I am staring out a window
looking at the most delicious Island that is Long leaves...the last remnants of Spring and Summer...hoisting a glass to greater capture with unclasped hands be the vision I now understand and hold...yet...ownership wishes to make slaves of us all...Truly we can never own the Grace and Goodness of the souls we meet...but we can Carry home in the bundle which is our mind the vigor...

I am a few glasses shy of the longer in my Home...oh for the Love of that blanket...anywho...closer...ever it relates to beepers and such...I prefer the gallop of hooves, and a rider with a message...give the man a bath and drink, make SURE he is well fed and then bring him to me...thus we will find delight in all that I do not now know...

Precious is the slowly arrived message...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 07:50 - ID#29048)
December gold popping up nicely this am..
perhaps it's time for paper and gold to go up together for awhile.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:01 - ID#287279)

THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
I don't know nothin' 'bout no Y2K

OK, I admit it: I've been ducking the "Y2K" question.

It's the most frequent inquiry I get, these days. And last weekend, while
participating in an electronic chat room organized by the Liberty
Roundtable, I had the questions come up several more times: "What do you
see happening in the Y2K crisis? To what part of the country should we move
to be safest?"

For those who have been in a cave, "Y2K" is shorthand for the problem
that develops because -- computer memory having been at a premium -- the
programmers who set up many of our mainframe computers back in the 1970s
and '80s created only a two-digit field for "year."

Now -- starting April 1, 1999, if not sooner -- operators are going to
try to program the computers that monitor our utility grids and phone
systems, the factory machinery that generates "just-on-time delivery" of
goods, even our railroad and airport switching equipment, giving those
machines their instructions for the first quarter of the year "00."

But ( pardon my anthropomorphing ) many of those computers will "assume"
the year 00 happened 99 years ago.

Anecdotes are already circulating about mortgage holders being billed for
99 years of delinquent interest, or supermarket debit machines rejecting as
"expired" brand new debit cards which carry expiration dates ending in "00"
or "01. "

So far, opinion among thoughtful people has been split on the likely
repercussions. Some perfectly wise folks argue that our economy and
technology are the most innovative and resourceful ever devised. Even if
your bank's ATMs go on the fritz for a couple of days, even if the railroad
switching equipment bogs down and produce deliveries to your supermarket
grow spotty for a few weeks, armies of well-paid technicians will hurl
themselves into developing "work-arounds."

To this way of thinking, survivalists who foresee the collapse of large
segments of our urban culture, putting a premium on ownership of a cow and
a well and a garden for the first time in 50 years, are merely engaging in
wishful thinking. Generally a bunch of Bible-thumpers ( as this line of
thought goes ) , they would find it mighty handy for some kind of cosmic rain
of brimstone to wipe away the urban Sodom and Gomorrah they view as the
cause of all their problems, proliferating as that urban culture does the
legions of the socialists, the welfare queens, the abortionists, the enviro
bug-worshippers, the gun-grabbers. How fitting and handy to envision them
all killing each other off, fighting over the last moldy crust of bread.

And, if the Y2K "crisis" were about to occur in perfect isolation, that
argument would hold some water ( even if this revelation of a nation divided
into urban-versus-rural, East-versus-West, gun-lover versus gun-hater,
would be worth some further study, all by itself. )

But remember, Y2K is "shorthand." And as it turns out, it stands for a
lot more than just "Year 2000."

The problem is that -- not exactly simultaneously, but all within the
next couple of years -- a few other problems are likely to crop up. Without
predicting a specific order:

# # #

1 ) The fractional reserve banking system that dates back to the creation
of the Federal Reserve in 1912-13 is in deep crisis. Buoyed by the supposed
guarantee that the International Monetary Fund ( our long-suffering friends,
the U.S. taxpayers ) would bail out any failures, our "private" bankers ( and
those of Japan ) have been recording trumped-up double-digit returns by
loaning billions to such bankrupt chicken farms as Malaysia, Indonesia,
Russia, Brazil, and Mexico.

These loans are no good. And they are pyramided and leveraged atop one
another like something out of Dr. Seuss. In this country, too, the pursuit
of ever-higher returns and the presumption that everyone can live the good
life on credit have encouraged foolish loans and investments based on the
notion that the federal government "insures all deposits," and that we can
always pay off our debts with that raise we hope to get next year.

Once these assumptions start to unravel, the only debate will be whether
to describe the fallout with references to "dominoes," or that old
favorite, the "house of cards."

Remember, as Jimmy Stewart explains to his depositors every year in "It's
a Wonderful Life," the current system is based on the assumption ( are you
noticing that word crop up a lot? ) that only a small percentage of
depositors will ever want to take all their money out at the same time.
Otherwise, the banks would be, well, bankrupt. This kind of fraud is only
legal because the government specifically licenses people to do it, on the
theory that it "creates more credit, to promote economic growth."

2 ) Then comes that old stalwart, the New York Stock Exchange. Prices
there have been many times what can be justified by traditional
price-to-earning ratios for years. That sounds arcane, but what it means is
that few investors are buying stocks these days because they've always
wanted to own a piece of Hammermill or Coca-Cola, and look forward to
reading the annual reports and living off the dividends in their golden

Dividends? Mere pennies! Folks buy these stocks today because the guy
who's selling them made an 18 to 21 percent return in 1997, and the buyer
hopes to realize 18 to 21 percent when he sells them in the year 2000.

When the holder of a mutual fund can no longer even tell you what products
or services are offered by the underlying firms that issued the stocks in
his or her "portfolio," what you have is a "bubble." Think tulip bulbs,
Everglades building lots, Cabbage Patch dolls, baseball cards, beanie

# # #

3 ) Today's dollar is intrinsically worthless. First it was made of gold;
then it said "pay to the bearer in gold;" then silver, now it's a
certificate redeemable for exactly nothing. Dollar-denominated Treasury
bonds are also intrinsically worthless. They are merely a promise to tax
our children or grandchildren to pay us back in still more paper --
Libertarians call them "extortion futures."

Bill Clinton is one of the luckiest men in history ... so far. Most
rational ( non-Keynesian ) economic models would predict that -- at the rate
at which the United States has been printing and passing worthless green
paper for the past 30 years -- we should be in the midst of a
hyperinflation that would make the Weimar Republic look boring. But the
funniest thing happened: All over the world, people love and respect
America as the font of freedom, and figure the dollar must really be worth
something -- certainly more than their worthless domestic ruble or zlotny.
So they hide dollars in their mattresses. Those dollars don't come back to
these shores to bid up the price of American goods. So we're fine ... so

But there's a reason why the guys who get arrested by your local bunko
squad are called "con artists." Their stock in trade is "confidence."

Remember Y2K? Imagine now that the ATM machines stop working. Since the
nation's major railroad switching yards are now entirely computerized --
the old manual switches were torn out years ago -- the grocery store runs
out of fresh produce. Some computer messes up at the sewage treatment
plant, and before they can figure out a manual override some sewage backs
up into the reservoir. Suddenly you're warned to boil your cooking water,
like some barefoot Third World peasant. Without explanation, the phones go

Long lines form as folks start panic-buying remaining supplies of
gasoline, kerosene lanterns, and canned goods -- price no object. There are
a few fistfights over the last rolls of toilet paper. Pressed by jealous
mobs to "do something," blustering politicians declare that anyone who
stores too much stuff is a "hoarder." Neighbors are encouraged to turn in
neighbors -- offered a reward from the seized goods when they're

Every electronic alarm in the city goes off all at once, leaving police
and fireman scurrying around, clueless. Some looting starts -- after all,
it's the "hoarders" who are the real criminals, right? TV pictures of all
this go out overseas, until the broadcasts are limited "to prevent panic."

What has just been lost? "Confidence." Now folks want to draw out their
bank accounts in cash. They want to sell their stocks ... but how can
everyone sell when the prices are falling so quickly that there are no
buyers, and the phone lines to your broker are tied up for days on end?

4 ) There is no "Social Security Trust Fund." The thief you keep sending
back to Congress helped them spend it all. Already, the retirement age is
being raised, and there's serious talk of "means testing" payments -- only
making full payments to the drunks and losers and compulsive gamblers who
accrued no other savings or assets. Kind of like taxing all the industrious
little ants, but only paying off the lazy grasshoppers. Sound like a
"guaranteed annuity" to you?

Assurances of ongoing "Trust Fund" solvency are based on the optimistic
assumption ( there's that word again ) that Social Security payments by
younger workers will continue at current levels. But what if there's a
recession, with big layoffs? What if the computers at the IRS are rumored
to be down as of late 1999? What if lots of people decide to just stop
filing and paying federal taxes in early Year 2000, on the theory, "They're
off line, anyway. If we ALL stop, they can't come find ALL of us"?

( This would never have happened in the 1950s, of course, when American
taxpayers -- generally paying less than 5 percent of gross income so you
could still support a family on one salary -- considered it "our"
government and were proud to do their patriotic duty at tax time. But since
then the liars have brought us Vietnam, Watergate, Chinagate, Filegate,
Ruby Ridge, and Waco ... IRS auditors and drug police routinely referring
to average Americans as "scum" and gleefully seizing our homes, businesses
and bank accounts, tens of thousands of young people jailed for marijuana
despite popular votes to legalize the stuff, defendants railroaded by smug
federal politician-judges without even being allowed to read the Bill of
Rights to their juries.

Still consider it your "patriotic duty" to feed this beast with half of
what you earn? Or did you think your pal the congressman was suddenly,
desperately searching for "an alternative to the IRS" just out of the
goodness of his heart? )

And what happens now to the carefully-drawn charts that show Social
Security is "sound until the year 2012"?

# # #

Irresponsible speculation?

If so, I'm not alone. Appearing in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Nov. 17, U.S.
Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, chairman of a Senate Special Committee on the
Year 2000 Technology Problem, said turn-of-the-century computer glitches
could cause "an economic downturn" in the United States and abroad.

"Potentially, this could tie up huge parts of the economy," Sen. Bennett
told John G. Edwards of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, after a private
meeting with executives at the Comdex computer trade show. "There will be a
problem. There is no question that we can't fix everything that needs to be
fixed ( over the next 14 months ) ."

Sen. Bennett told the newspaper he believes less developed countries in
Asia, Africa and South America will be most affected by Y2K problems,
though they're reportedly "working hard" to resolve the computer glitches.
"My current assumption is that the United States will overcome this without
overwhelming, crippling problems," the senator proclaimed.

Then he said he is also concerned about how the millennium bug will
affect the health care industry.

"I wouldn't want to get sick in some rural hospital," the senator said,

Meantime, the Sacramento Bee reported ( also on Nov. 17 ) results of an
August poll that shows most California cities and counties have a plan to
eradicate the year 2000 bug ... "but less than half have set aside the
money to pay for it."

Feeling reassured?

Into this potential maelstrom, toss three wild cards:

1 ) If Americans, hypothetically told at some future date that stocks and
bonds have fallen to one-third of their previous nominal values, could be
counted on to behave like sophisticated, diversified investors, saying "Oh
well, you win some, you lose some," then the market could indeed fall by
two thirds without causing a meltdown.

But the behavior of large groups of people, once they start moving, is
rarely so rational. Would you want to be the last one on your block to cry

When a market crashes, folks lose their jobs. What happens then to folks
who have no hard savings or supplies but plenty of debt ... who have barely
been keeping their heads above water? What liberties -- yours as well as
theirs -- would they then gladly trade for a steady supply of hot porridge?

2 ) The kind of people who gravitate to government "service" never
voluntarily accept blame, but they ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) always looking
for ways to expand their power. Can you spot any aspects of these "Y2K"
scenarios that might give government agencies an excuse to seize more
power; to further restrict our freedoms under the guise of "offering relief
and restoring order"; and then to blame the whole situation on someone
else. "Greedy capitalists," perhaps, who have been operating with "too
little regulation"?

3 ) We will be increasingly reassured that "the best minds" are hard at
work re-writing computer code to prevent any of this from happening. But
computer nerds and denizens of the Internet are, in my experience, the most
free-thinking, libertarian ... even anarchist residents of our little
global village. They are immensely confident in their self-sufficiency. And
they do not like Big Brother -- especially when he threatens to mess with
their privacy and freedom.

So ... what if a few of them are only ( start ital ) pretending ( end ital ) to
fix the problem? It may take a village to raise a socialist, but it
wouldn't take many Y2K saboteurs to seize this opportunity to "topple the

# # #

A long way around to a relatively short answer: No, I'm not a
professional financial advisor. But yes, I know exactly what is going to
happen. Everything listed above is going to happen. I just don't know
( start ital ) when ( end ital ) each thing is going to happen, or in what
particular order -- which is what you really need to know, if you think
about it.

But since there's no real penalty for being "too prepared" -- other than
perhaps looking a bit foolish -- I will fearlessly give a little
( absolutely amateur ) advice, which should apply in the face of almost
( start ital ) any ( end ital ) unforeseen emergency. ( And if you start preparing
yourself for the smaller emergencies now, at least you'll be part-way
home. )

Pay down your debts. Turn a hobby into a second, part-time business ... a
small but separate income stream. Diversify. Owning a bunch of "funds" with
different names, which are in fact all dollar-denominated electronic blips at some government-regulated bank or brokerage house, is not sufficient. Do you own any bullion-value gold coins ( not coins with grossly-inflated "collector value," but coins priced at no more than twice their meltdown worth ) ? Have you hidden away any bags of "junk silver" ( pre-1965 real silver dimes and quarters, now selling at about four times face value ) ? Do you have a supply of greenbacks somewhere other than "in the ATM?" Enough to live on for a week? A month?

Rich folks can look into Swiss annuities. But even those of moderate
means can think about a beat-up looking American pickup truck ... with
enough dough left over to stockpile an extra water pump, an extra fuel
pump, extra tires and wheels, an extra battery ... and some wrenches, you

Don't panic. Don't sell everything and move somewhere to become an
unemployed stranger ... unless you really have the assets, the manpower,
and the handyman skills to set yourself up right. Do consider whether you
could dig a well ( or drink out of the creek ) and plant a vegetable garden
where you live, should things get tough for a time. If not, do you have
friends or relatives within driving distance, where such things are
possible? Would they take you in if you arrived as an unwashed beggar? For how long?

But what if you were to contact them now, asking permission to store some supplies there, and even to help finance their plans to fix up a room in the loft, to till and fence a bigger garden, or to share the costs and ownership of a four-wheel-drive vehicle? What then?

Do you have water and non-perishable food stored to get you through a
week? A month? ( Freeze-dried gourmet camper's fare is fine for the
well-heeled, as are surplus Army MREs. But bulk rice, oats, and dried peas in plastic tubs are surprisingly cheap, if you shop around. ) More than a week's supply of toilet paper, soap, and other hygiene products? Pet food?

The doctors and insurance companies don't want you to stockpile the
prescription medicines you legitimately need, do they? How hard have you
worked at outsmarting them? As a last resort, think "veterinarian."

Do you have alternative ways to heat and light your home, if the power
were to go down? ( Residents of blizzard country will actually have a head
start, here. ) If not, is that because you look forward to someday living in a "government resettlement camp"?

Could you protect your family and belongings from home invaders, if the
police could not be reached? Would your neighbors help? Would you help
( start ital ) them ( end ital ) ? Do you even know their names?

Do you own any firearms? Are they listed on government pre-confiscation
lists? Why? Do you know why shotguns and handguns are generally better
home-defense weapons than rifles? Do you know with what types of bullets or shells it's best to load such weapons for home defense? Got any? Why not? Afraid that once you start to learn new stuff it might become a habit?

Dying during a crisis is not the worst thing that can happen to you. I
imagine that watching the suffering of those who counted on you to protect them can be much worse.

Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at> The web sites for the Suprynowicz column are at, and The column is syndicated in the United
States and Canada via Mountain Media Syndications, P.O. Box 4422, Las Vegas Nev. 89127.
Vin Suprynowicz,

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:01 - ID#185448)
mon dieu! Have been off the screen for one and somewhat hours, while gold surged 1.20!
Have you noticed that the 1999 Nuggett is already available? Lizzy looks rather old on it, but what the ...., Au is Au.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:03 - ID#35571)
Gold up, yes, but paper may have a bit of a problem...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:07 - ID#284255)
Seems you should have a couple more for great cheer.
Patience and fortitude my friend.

Many thanks.
All should consider this.


Very much echoes my thoughts.
Or do my thoughts just echo???

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:17 - ID#45173)
Today, the day after the Fed cut rates again and all are convinced to "not fight the Fed," they are safe and sound in the stock market under the benevolent hand of Alan Greenspan, the day when a big drop in the market is least expected, with no apparent catylist...

But that's just a guess, of course.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:20 - ID#147201)
Sharefin, Sheller, Obsidian, Squirrel and Aurator
My damn email is out again. I'll be working on it and the ISP SOB. Later

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:24 - ID#428218)
Something is STILL adrift...........LTCM


She spoke with the newspaper after the Post obtained a copy of a document the fund filed with the CFTC earlier this year, saying it had borrowed $25 for every $1 of its equity capital.

Long-Term Capital Management is a hedge fund that was on the brink of collapse in late September. The Federal Reserve Board orchestrated a rescue in which 14 commercial and investment banks poured in $3.6 billion in new capital.

According to the document obtained by the Post, the fund had borrowed $125 billion on capital of just $4.7 billion as of Dec. 31, 1997. The fund used that money to place bets on financial instruments around the globe.


They borrowed US$125 billion.......the "bailout" was US$ 3.6 billion....

This must surely be a "band aid " fix......LTCM "MUST" surely still be in the sh*t ????????????

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:27 - ID#147201)
SDRer re us Code
Can you give me a reference re the '96 amendment that has penalties for the issue of "near" currency that may mimic US currency? Thanx in advance.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:31 - ID#35571)
I was kind of thinking downish or flat for a day or two as the smiling used stock salesmen sell into the hopefull crowd, then despair sets in...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:33 - ID#26793)
Brazilian presses were busy while the IMF was scrounging together a bailout.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:35 - ID#147201)
Sharefin re fin
Sounds very good. You are on the ball. Let me know if I have any info you need. Great. Let you know when email is fixed

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:36 - ID#428218)
record sales in US Gold coins.........

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:37 - ID#35571)
@Greenstone Gold

Like a bad driver, LTCM is still on the road:

Leaving a trail of wrecks behind it:

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:43 - ID#428218)

What was that story concerning "Humpy Dumpy".....and all the Kings men !

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:43 - ID#35571)
Got treasury puts?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:43 - ID#375108)
Glenn...Thank you, muchas gracias, muito obrigado, merci beaucoup....
Vielen dank. You old gold bear. Your short term bullishness yesterday prompted me to pick up a few more gold shares. Looking pretty good this morning, with gold up +/-$1.70. Intend to be out of this batch later today or tomorrow...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:45 - ID#35571)
Gold on way to moon, silver having a problem lifting off...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:45 - ID#284255)
OK Better luck later on.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:45 - ID#26793)
Italy wants a borrowing binge as soon as Euro starts

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:47 - ID#35571)
@Greenstone Gold
I think they tried to put him together again, but just got egg on their face.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:50 - ID#339274)
FWIW The XAU projected to 83,92 on Thursday,with Friday making a high
and closing low.Buy at the opening with an out right stop and net short
below 73 and stop 75.Those are suggestion for the LT guys. have a good
and prosperous trading days.

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Nov 18 1998 08:51 - ID#428218)
Loading for liftoff............

remember to take the "en" out of "golden"

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:01 - ID#35571)
Houston, gold rocket requesting permission for orbit...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:05 - ID#147201)
Obsidian re norfed
Excellent comment re norfed. Since email is out on sending, I will send SDRer's comment when I get it. I'm on ISP like chicken on a june bug. Later

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:14 - ID#348286)
Good call so far. I guess you will be liquidating later today?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:17 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 175.961 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 294.400 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 175.173 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 293.800 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9482 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 17 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9500 US Dollars

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:30 - ID#227290)
Got Gold?
The spike up this morning is in direct correlation to the Tripp/Lewinsky tape where Monica tells Tripp to "buy as much gold as you can. Billy told me so."

No, not really.

Does anyone know the real reason? I'd like to know. Can't be the cut can it?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:30 - ID#369352)
I notice that LTCM is looking much healthier these days...I wonder if it had anything to do with the promise that Alan Greenspan made to the bankers bailing out LTCM of what he planned to do to protect them from loosing money...somehow, I have the feeling that all of this has been pre-scripted for the banks and his friends...and somehow...I feel that we the people are just along for the ride...and just like Monica Lewinski, get screwed by the gov't!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:30 - ID#45173)
Markets open

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:31 - ID#284255)

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:32 - ID#411440)
@ all: May I remind the overly enthusiastic gold bugs on this
forum that one month lease rates are at .67% and under the gravity
of this kind of selling pressure, the gold 'rocket' is going to sit
on the ground, vibrating, spitting rocks, fire, and the occasional
miner, until all fuel is exhausted.

There will be no bull as long as CB's through their leasing, are
willing to sell gold at under $300. They must know by now, that
this gold will never be returned, but as long as they can stand
the losses, gold will not rise. FWIW and IMHO.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:33 - ID#31870)
on to the second had been a looooooooooong time since I
remembered advantage...I just spoke with our competition they are lost...212-929-8800...sheshhhhhhhh...see the movie BRAZIL and you will understand..My Friend...sit back and watch the MAGIC..

PS...don't worry about Camdesuss...HIS ass is owned by my dog...have no fear unto your house...

we ain't pretty...and we wear funny hats...but weeeeeeez is good People....


KINDNESS...yup...uh huh...meaner than bat's acid but always the dew drop on the leaf ...yello...

WE are outside...and we teach quite silence...

Spud Master
(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:40 - ID#11929)
What next, after 125% Home Equity Loans...
I've been wondering what next, after the boomers & yuppers have all got their "125%" home equity loans and tossed the loot into the furnace of the stock market...

... where will the next source of cash come from? What do the boomers/yuppies have of value after their house?

You got it: 125% organ equity loans. Why waste the value on your heart, lungs, kidneys? We'll loan you 125% of their value NOW! So pick up that phone!

( cough - but what about default on an organ equity loan? )


ps - of course, boomers/yuppies also have children...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:41 - ID#333126)
@Gollum re: T-bond puts
yes, Sir, still have some.

looking to see if they are still worth something come expiry.

what do you think?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:47 - ID#369352)
Reason for lower interest rates, as reported on CNBC
last night on CNBC they had mentioned that the Fed lowered interest rates so that we could charge more on our credit cards for Christmas at a lower rate of interest....How nice of the fed to do that, just for us!!! And I thought the White House had a strong line of Bull Sh*t....

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:49 - ID#35571)
I'd say by next Monday we should have a pretty good idea. With the fed having done it's cut, it's going to be a while til the next one. Which leaves little supporting the t-bonds. If the dollar begins to weaken, down goes the bond market.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:49 - ID#258427)
@ Spud....How 'bout
refinancing the BEEEMEEERRR!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:50 - ID#369352)
Spud Master
I think the next move will be the 150% home equity loan at 0% interest...just a gift from the Fed.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:52 - ID#212197)
@rhody: Gold Lease Rates are low. O.K. What does that indicate?
If this gold lease rate is a rate set by the market, what does a low lease rate tell us?
There are two sides which get involved: the CBs and the gold-taker.

For the CBs a low rate tells us that they want desperately lease off their gold and do not find anybody to take it.
For the gold-takers it tells us that they feel that it is much too risky for them to lease and sell at these low prices and to give back the gold at hiogher prices. They feel already burnt, don't they?

So after all, a low lease rate tells us that the former gold takers don't expect the gold price to go down any further. For the gold-takers, this was only attractive as long as they expected for the gold price to go down during the lease period.

Please tell me if the above is logical. Because I do not trust my own mind too much, because I'm a hopeless goldbug, and I didn't have my coffee yet.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:53 - ID#35571)
If they REALLY wanted to be nice for Christmas, they'd make credit card interest deductable.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:53 - ID#333126)
ahh... Monday, you say... but my Dec puts expire this Friday.

well, still got enough powder for a few more rounds of puts. still... the sooner I get a windfall, the happier I will be ( drinks at the kitco bar on me :- )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:54 - ID#411163)
Gold is up $2.40 silver +$0.055/oz.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 09:55 - ID#35571)
What time Friday and what price do you need? I can always go pull some levers.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:04 - ID#333126)
not sure what time friday they expire ( I get the feeling it's 12pm, but not confident about this )

they're still trading now between 126 and 128. getting them to break convincingly below 126 should set up a ... hehe ... margin call dump to below 124 ... maybe to 118 ...

( I've got 124 and 123 puts )

thanks in advance for lever pulling. :- )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:26 - ID#369352)
Amen brother! But to make interest rates deductable, they would have to get congress to go along...but with the fed, they don't have to ask permission...they make their own rules and we kiss their feet with praise and adoration!!! However, if AG could get the dollar to drop another 50% and gold to $400 for Christmas, I'd be happy!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:30 - ID#119358)
@Alberich.O........your 9:52........
now, that reads just about right to me.....some gooood thinkin'....yes, salud!!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:33 - ID#210420)
Majors are getting some positive play on Cnbcat the open...must mean "the"longs are in place...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:39 - ID#411440)
@ Alberich: Yes you are right, the low lease rates may indicate
that no one is willing to lease ( and sell the borrowed gold ) knowing
that the gold must be returned, and hence likely repurchased at a
higher price.

But: I have never seen a gold bull that wasn't preceded by a rise
in lease rates first, then POG follows. I'm not sure why this happens.
It just does. It may be that hedge funds borrow from one CB in order
to pay back another ( kind of like using one credit card to pay off
another ) . If enough funds are rushing around doing this, the lease
rates rise. They are of course hoping that the POG spike is blunted
and they can later cover. Eventually, if the Fed keeps lowering, the
lease rate gold carry is turned off. Then gold explodes. I think
the CBs can keep the lid on until 1999, even if they actually have to
make honest sales on the spot market to do it. But your guess is
as good as mine. Gold is political, not rational, and not market

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:40 - ID#35571)
I'll see what I can do. I don't think the margin call dump will work so good because there's not enough time between now and Friday noon. Might trigger some stops though.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:43 - ID#35571)
I think gold bulls are tied to inflation and inflation expectations. Which in turn drive interest rates up. Which in turn send lease rates up. So one would not expect a gold bull without seeing lease rates go up.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:44 - ID#258427)
The XAU is really running...
way ahead of the POG...Go Golf!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:44 - ID#350194)
Still in the Box
"This time, like all times, is a very good one,
if we but know what to do with it".
---------Ralph Waldo Emerson

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:48 - ID#369352)
XAU Liftoff that airline of your's still must have converted it to rocket air, because the XAU just launched it's missile!...or were you just screwing with those levers again?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:49 - ID#119358)
lottsa' volume on DroOy this early 'morn.....this feels a wee bit better.

Jim Bob
(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:49 - ID#249395)
goldfields SA * rip-off??
I can't be the only one out there that owned shares in Goldfields of South Africa on Oct. 16. Without prior notice a la RANGY, they spun off 85% of their value in the form of non-ADR stocks, to-wit Goldfields, LTD. and Standard Bank ( both of which I would like to own ) . The Bank of New York was supposed to sell off the shares that US stockholders would receive and distribute the proceeds. GLDFY dropped 13 1/16 on the following Monday. AIS said we'd get $ 13 per share less the Bank's cost of transactions. I've received less that $ 7000 out of $ 26000 expected. The Bank of NY ( who flashes a headline that they are #1 in service ) has not responded to my e-mailed inquiries.
Does anybody out there know what is going on?? My money is missing in action. Help! I have to go work; I'll scan back later.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:51 - ID#333126)
@ gollum
oh yeah. that's what i meant. sell stops rather than margin calls.
hard to think on a full stomach and insufficient sleep.

ahh... just had a midnite snack at this italian cafe. Cafe Roma. great pasta, good pizza, great desserts... mmmm ....

golfbug qotd:
It is much easier to be critical than to be correct.
-- Benjamin Disraeli

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:51 - ID#35571)
My bad feeling about silver is getting worse

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:53 - ID#35571)
The ol' gold rocket does have some life to it, but there seems to be something silver weighing it down a bit.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:56 - ID#35571)
Sell stops it is then. Be prepared to move fast because these bond levers are old and rusty and I don't expect them to have a lot of effect untill Friday morning.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:57 - ID#45173)
Not so long ago ( 10 years ago? ) you could deduct 50% of your credit card debt. But the rule was changed, I'm not sure why.

Had dinner with a friend last night who's a partner in a mortgage company. Says that for the last few months they, like most morgage companies, have been dumping high-risk, high-interest mortgage debt like it was on fire. They had $210M in August and still have $120M. Says no one wants the stinky high-risk credit card debt either, even at 21% interest rates. Seems the word is out and no one wants to be left holding the credit default bag when the recession hits that the Fed is stalling. It's starting to look like the 1980s all over again for these guys.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:59 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney: There is definite interest in a Toronto Kitco dinner.
Sam is interested, as am I. Any thoughts concerning time and place?

Go gold and silver.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 10:59 - ID#35571)
Where are we? You think maybe another thirty minutes?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:01 - ID#35571)
Many of those guys are hedged against treasuries. If treasuries start to fall they are left with a lot of high risk debt and falling bond prices....

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:05 - ID#316256)
Money in the street
Once heard some wag say that rich people didn't get rich by throwing money in the street. But here we are in November 1998 and some of the CBs around the world are throwing gold into the street and relatively few know it. By historical standards gold is cheap. They are throwing this gold into the street in order to keep their paper empire afloat. "See gold is losing value, you don't want your money there, put it here in the safe mutual fund, ( a.k.a. Massachusetts Trust ) !!!!" This is great for us. We just walk out into the street and pick up this worthless item: GOLD. But like they say, every dog has its day, and gold is one big dog. Just remember, the paper empire, by all evidence we are aware of is not sustainable. So, get your cheap gold now and then hold on, cause you're going to end up as one sovereign dude.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:10 - ID#373403)
South African Mining
What do the former SA mining cheerleaders have to say? Sure seems like the SA mines do not have much respect for their shareholders.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:11 - ID#411440)
@ Gollum: What is the source of your concern for silver?
I know that over 1 million oz have been added to COMEX stocks this
week but we have seen the opposite happen with no change in the
price. One month lease rates for silver are about .5% higher than
gold, indicating less liquidity for silver, not more.

I hope the price does fall near term, as I am trying to buy bullion.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:17 - ID#390249)
Euro gold coin news
The attached article discusses euro gold coins - gold content will be face value. What is 100 euro worth in US$?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:21 - ID#339274)
FWIW bought at the opening 22 11/16,sold 23 1/8. We got a big gap
to fill

Richard Burke
(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:22 - ID#413269)
Since the first 15 minute bar, HUI has been absolutely flat on top of each subsequent 15 min. bar. Last small one up. Paper seems to be waiting for gold to make up its mind.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:24 - ID#430221)
Everyone: I need advice re small bullion coins
I am planning to buy a few small gold coins ( or perhaps somewhat larger silver ones, or something similar ( or Norfed notes?? ) for Christmas presents. I never did this before - always went for more expensive rarer numismatic stuff or just an occasional 1 oz Maple Leaf etc. Any and all advice welcome. What looks nice and is well known ( and so easy to sell or to determine the value of etc ( so the receiver knows they're not getting some odd piece of junk if they go to a shop etc ) ) and is good value? How about the Norfed notes? I just found out about them and am curious what Kitcoites in the know think about them.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:24 - ID#35571)
Gold is up two and a half bucks and silver has hardly moved. It should be a nickel higher than it is. Someone is dumping silver while they can. If gold takes a breather, which I suspect it will before long, silver will be in jeapordy.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW yesterday's Fed action has insured a strong yearend
grainrally.People still got to eat and with a lower dollar
you got a winner.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:25 - ID#430221)
Everyone: I need advice re small bullion coins
I am planning to buy a few small gold coins ( or perhaps somewhat larger silver ones, or something similar ( or Norfed notes?? ) for Christmas presents. I never did this before - always went for more expensive rarer numismatic stuff or just an occasional 1 oz Maple Leaf etc. Any and all advice welcome. What looks nice and is well known ( and so easy to sell or to determine the value of etc ( so the receiver knows they're not getting some odd piece of junk if they go to a shop etc ) ) and is good value? How about the Norfed notes? I just found out about them and am curious what Kitcoites in the know think about them.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:33 - ID#255378)
wolf, wolf!!
Today's rise in gold was forecast by yesterday's drop in eligible gold stocks in the Comex warehouses. They are now at the lowest level in a wolve's lifetime. Could it just be that this time ...................

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:33 - ID#93127)
Neophyte, yr: 11:17
Nov 17, XEU:USD = 1.1819
USD:XEU = 0.8461

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:39 - ID#339274)
FWIW action very positive ,we won't have to wait for another pop long

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:48 - ID#341231)
Kitco TO dinner (Rhody, Moody, Sam)
I'd like to lurk at the next table too.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:52 - ID#339274)
FWIW back in 23 for 23 1/2

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:56 - ID#343171)
from Colin Seymours page:

Russian Bank Fears

Barclays bank may have to write off another 90 million of loans as the punch-drunk Russian banking system faces a knockout blow.

Analysts believe hundreds of Russia's banks will collapse when a 90-day breathing space granted by creditors expires this weekend, forcing foreign investors to write off

Observers say that the Russian crisis, combined with large losses from other emerging markets, will create a worldwide credit crisis...

...Continental and US banks including BNP, Credit Suisse, UBS, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and Bank America, have all made large loans to the former Soviet Union.
Financial Mail on Sunday, Nov 15

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:57 - ID#343171)
ANOTHER poll on Colin Seymour page

(Wed Nov 18 1998 11:58 - ID#339274)
seat belts
FWIW buckle up

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:02 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 175.961 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 294.400 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 177.152 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 296.500 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9591 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9550 US Dollars

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:06 - ID#153110)
@Rack @ERLE @Disney
"Genatec ( sp ) makes a unit 8,000w that runs on Gasoline-propane or natural gas for US$1,600.00" Could you provide source info on that unit, please ?

ERLE, au contraire, I was in awe and expressing admiration for your posts dejour.

Disney Not everybody has Tutzi on call.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:07 - ID#432395)
POG---Just took a break--Starting to move up again!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:12 - ID#153110)
@To really get this Baby rolling again they need to make not merely interest
on debt tax deductible, but debt itself. I mean in a simpler form than a bankruptcy filing, of course.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:15 - ID#348286)
@HERE is the answer to all the doubters (GOLD is lethal to Paper)
"There was also no question of producing a coin whose gold value was close to its face value because this may prevent planned euro notes with similar values from becoming accepted."

Also, what if Gold soars after issue, the Euro paper would be trashed.

Own Gold......

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:17 - ID#339274)
FWIW within the next ten minutes time will have squared price

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:18 - ID#31870)
Third quart...I am now housesd in a dwelling with a woman named suuculent and I
am scared...a gland should not be the the measure of a man...of salt and Peter...rapture...AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!I am not the man I thought myself to be...willing but not able...AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:20 - ID#350194)
'Tis the Season ( Almost ) . Rhody and All North Central Zone Kitcoites. Let's start planning our next informal Kitcoite get together. ( Was standing on almost the exact spot of the last one, last Sunday, for the grand Santa Parade. ) Farmer and others! No Lurkers allowed! You must actually BE there, living, breathing, eating and just occassionally speaking up with some juicy opinions, ( untenable or otherwise ;- ) ) . I think we haveto see how many are interested before we pick a spot or date. All interested please feel free to e-mail me with comment and/or suggestions. Rhody and Sam you may post my e-mail from time to time concerning this. Let's get a decent turn out at this meet ( date and time TBA ) over this holiday season. 'Got everything I need ...Almost!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:24 - ID#269191)
S.A. mines may enjoy putting it to their U.S. shareholders.
But they do put out really nice looking annual reports.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:26 - ID#258427)
No whinning about silver
holding gold back...actually Silver is up over 1% ( +.05 ) while gold is slightly less than 1% ...or so...

Go Silver ( PAASF ) and Gold ( RANYD, GSR )'s time!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:27 - ID#350179)
This wasn't supposed to happen
until tomorrow! Oh well, timing is everything...

Tolly, Sorry to hear about your, umm problem.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:27 - ID#258427)
Whinning = whining!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:27 - ID#339274)
resistance zones
FWIW XAU 80.7 ,NEM 23 1/2

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:28 - ID#411440)
@ Mooney: message received. I just watched CNBC, and the
market was pretty flat. There is excitement in one aspect of the
market however. The XAU is moving. This was not mentioned of

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:30 - ID#257312)
Goldilocks-- Christmas Presents

How about buying a variety of 1/4 ounce Gold coins such as Maple Leafs, golden eagles ( delete the en ) , Vienna Philharmonics, Pandas, etc. for your friends and family. And don't forget your Kitco family either. Will send my address and shipping information later. May you have a Golden Christmas ( don't delete the en ) .

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:32 - ID#35571)
My experience is that silver generally moves about twice as much as gold, so if gold is up or down 1% one would expect silver to be up or down about 2%.

What we need is for someone good at charts to look at the gold/silver ratio.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:34 - ID#284255)
Generator needs
Power-determining your needs

Send a blank email to this address
No subject, no body.
And you'll be auto mailed straight back.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:35 - ID#258427)
Gold/Silver about 60:1...pretty high historically ..Silver should do some moving catch up with the upmove in gold ( hopefully ) ...

Who Cares?
(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:35 - ID#242214)
Doctor, Doctor

Investor: "Doctor, Doctor, it hurts when I bet against Alan Greenspan"

Doctor: "Stop betting against him"


Debtor: "Preacher, preacher, I have a big problem"

AG: "And what is that, my son?"

Debtor: "I borrowed $10,000 from the bank!"

AG: "I don't see the problem, son"

Debtor: "I borrowed $10,000 and I can't pay it back!"

AG: "I still don't see the problem. Can you explain?"

Debtor: "I borrowed $10K and I can't PAY IT BACK!"

AG: "Well, son, I don't think you have a problem..."

AG: "I think the bank has a problem"

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:39 - ID#288466)
Gollum at GSR
For some reason, the gold/silver ratio ( basis December futures ) is being held above 59.8 ( reversed 6 times on the 5 minute chart ) . This value isn't on a major trend line.

enter GCZ8 /SIZ8 ( remember to put a space before the / ) .

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:48 - ID#375108)
Gold spike$3.90
Short covering??

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:48 - ID#25295)
good call. nothing else is moving, iem sitting out. whats your call?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:54 - ID#288466)
Gold/Silver ratio
Probably ratio traders moving in and out on ratio = 60 ( cash basis ) . The ratio usually has stiff resistance at the even 10's.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:54 - ID#284255)
It's a majorly dumb move. Really, really dumb!

Windows 2000

(Wed Nov 18 1998 12:58 - ID#339274)
FWIW still running positive, keep close eye on the 23 1/2
Objective for today 83 and 24,we'll see

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:02 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold 23 5/16

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:02 - ID#257312)
Follow The Yellow Brick Road

XAU doing well so far.^xau&d=1d

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:08 - ID#31868)
fourth quart and the Mr. BoJangles sleeps...and all I wanted from the day was to WISH
Gabby a Birthday...Henry...with an e or not,,,,and Gorby add the Bush boy

spooky huh...the TRUTH BE KNOWN...MY FATHER was AND IS AN american...


god BLESS GABBY...this day is hers............

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:13 - ID#411163)
Mozel-tri-fuel generator source
1-800-247-0673 I threw that info but they can fax it to you also. I think it was 8000w with gasoline- it derates 10% + 20% if you use propane and natural gas.
Let me know if you need any other info.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:17 - ID#266105)

Moregold-- you got it. A 100 euro gold content, face value,
legal tender coin cannot circulate in tandem with a paper

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:17 - ID#258427)
Silver on the to keep that ratio ...grin..go golf and silvef

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:21 - ID#339274)
FWIW 80.2 XAU could be a buying point for NEM.NEM is relatively
weaker than the XAU

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:23 - ID#411163)
Mozel- the tri-fuel unit is made by Winco, my mistake

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:29 - ID#339274)
FWIW 23 1/16 back in

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:47 - ID#377196)
Gold Coin News
That the gold content cannot exceed the nominal value of the coin
assures that the price of gold will rise into the year 2002 when the
coins are to be introduced. If a 100 Euro coin is to be used then
if the price of gold doubles only 1/2 of the gold has to be used in the
coin. This ineffect devalues the coin without the bank having to do that
nasty stuff of declaring a devaluation. It will let the market decided
what the true value of the gold is in relation to its paper component which will comprise 85 % of its value.

If the coin were to be a gold coin based on todays prices then there
would not be enough gold to back the outstanding currency. So this is the
first indication that the money is changing.

Now lets say that gold goes to $3000 per ounce. That will mean that
the central banks will only have to use 1/10 the amount of gold in the
coin than if they were to issue the coin today. So there will be NO
INCENTIVE AT ALL for the banks to keep the price of gold down. If fact
the opposite is probably true.

The denomination has been put at 100 as a base number, now it will be
up to the market to determine what the price of gold needs to be to
back the paper or nominal proportion.

This to me is the first admission that a fraction gold exchange standard is coming. The US will have to do the same. They have probably
already planned for this. Then the markets will have 3 years to price
gold. Since I read that the derivitives go out this far there is a
relationship with these derivitives and the new monetary system which
is being introduced. These derivitives will make the transtition more
smooth and drawn out that just happening overnight.

Gold stocks will perform extremely well under stable rising gold
prices. I would guess that the Dow and POG will come close together
around the 1200 to 1700 number by 2002. I think that is a good guess.


(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:49 - ID#430221)
Many thanks Auric for your advice re Christmas presents
Do yuo think that some of these coins might be a better choice, or they are all more or less equal? Needless to say, if gold had done it's stuff in the way I hoped it would this year, I might even afford to send such presents to all my favorite Kitco posters - HOWEVER - it's have to wait until my financial situation gets a bit more above water - let's hope soon - anyway we're having fun today - GO GOLD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:57 - ID#266105)

Gold Dancer-- the fonctionnaires' interest in the gold coin
proposal consists of utilizing the contents of CB vaults for
vote buying. In things monetary/financial they know the words
but they don't know their meaning.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 13:58 - ID#333127)
With a spike to 23 I'm out.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:07 - ID#339274)
FWIW We are coming close to the moment of truth 79.8 is a trip

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:09 - ID#377196)
100 Euro coin
I repeat: The denomination has been set=100. Only how much gold goes
into the coin has to be determined. The Central bank has the incentive
to put as little gold into the coin as it can get away with.

Gold will rise when the rest of the world figures this out.

The free market will determine the final price of gold with no
incentive to get in the way of a rising price. Price held down so
Japan could get its stash or at least a start on one. The Yen will back an Asian Currency simular to the Euro in Europe.

So we are finally at the starting gate with this latest announcement.

Hold on for the ride. It is going to be fun and profitable.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:14 - ID#339274)
must have heard my cue: )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:16 - ID#218387)
OPEC meeting next week
With oil at 12 year lows in $US, it will be interesting to see how OPEC will respond at their next meeting. What choices are left for Black Gold?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:20 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold 23 3/16.turning negative

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:24 - ID#24135)
Ill say it again
to adr holders
I believe this is the fourth time
Ive posted this .. Missing link seems
to feel this is RSA mines treating
its shareholders badly .. not really
this is the way the US banks who issue
the ADRs operating under the stone age
US regulations .. If there is an asset
distribution and you hold ADRs you get
screwed ..

The missing link ( well named ) may have
called me a "cheerleader" .. try
reading my posts and get your
paranoia under control .. also I never
mentioned Goldfields .. never owned
them .. started buying calls maybe
3 weeks ago ... here is prior post

" For Rangy sportsfans ..
I will repeat this for all Rangy sportsfans .. IF
Rangy should break up its assets to shareholders I
would be very carefull .. IF you can .. I would
purchase the Rangold shares locally in Joberg
( ML has and office there .. it should be easy ) ..
rather than the ADRs ... Ignore my words at YOUR
PERIL .. If things go bad .. Im keeping this posting
so I can say I did my best.
In the event of a break up .. I believe that assets
the bank
issuing the ADRs.
NOW I dont think RRS which is HALF Rangolds assets
is listed .. Im sure that ALL the rest except for
DD Randfonts and the other STOCKS are UNLISTED..
Im not making this up ... IVE DONE THIS sort of
thing myself.
The assets would be disposed of like this .. my broker
would call and say .. was just advised that Citibank
is auctioning 11.25 million shares of randgold resources
dau after tomaorrow .. do you want to make an offer??
Since we'd be talking 25 million smackers .. Id say
lemme sleep on it ..
However mercury asset management owns 25 % of
( source Mining Journal ) and would have been in
close contact with the bank and be fully prepared ..
same goes for the kebbles .. So these assets would
obtain at best 60 cents on the dollar at that type of
auction ( there might even be a little collusion ..
perish the thought ) .
SO .. In the event of a carve up .. either buy the
local shares or bail out at the first sign of such a
move .. Remember .. I told you .. I keep a copy."

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:25 - ID#339274)
FWIW went short 23 1/4

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:28 - ID#212197)
@Gold Dancer (Gold Coin News) Your 13:47 & 14:09
I like it!
When the market starts smelling this treat, as you explained it, we will have lots of excitement here at kitco.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:42 - ID#288466)
Do you like auctions? There is a lot of variety in gold coins at Ebay:

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:43 - ID#233199)
Is there any particular news that pused teh godl price today?
Is the news about the Euro=100 coin-cidental?

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:43 - ID#377196)
Yet more on the 100 Euro
For those who don't agree ask yourselves this. Why was the nominal
number 100 chosen? Why not 25 or 75?

The answer should be obvious for those who are mathematically inclined
past the 5th grade level: Try the decimal system.

So this is really an incredible situation that the financial power structure has come clean and in full view for all to see that they
are going to let the free market determine the "real" price of gold.

This is the only way to do it, of course, but it is encouraging to
see this forthrightness at his time. We will just have to forget about
all the gold manipulation up till now. They had their reason's right or

On to the future which should be a revaluation of the dollar price
of gold and commodities more in line with the available supply of
dollars. Shrinking profits due to rising costs and a declining stockmarket. Eventually rising interest rates to defend same.


(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:45 - ID#339274)
FWIW covered at 23 1/8

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:50 - ID#339274)
FWIW going long for the last hour rally,23 1/8

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:52 - ID#432395)
@Cyclist--Slowdown son, your digging yourself an early grave!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:56 - ID#373403)
Herr Dizny
Oh, did you think I was talking about you?

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:56 - ID#212323)
Goldilocks (Everyone: I need advice re small bullion coins)
For pure visual appeal, nothing beats the Australian Nugget ( Kangaroo ) coins. They are stamped with a finish that combines satiny areas with areas of high polish. They look like jewelry and sell at bullion prices...all standard sizes available. This is a good site:
I would also hold in high regard the Wienner Philharmoniker bullion coins. The "face value" is impressive, also....2000 Schillings/oz. The tenth ounce size looks very charming.
Certainly, the maple leafs and eagles and pandas are nice, but fall short of these two. But than, you just can't go wrong with gold this year.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 14:57 - ID#30126)
O.K., will someone please pick up oil ( CLZ8 ) off of the floor. Mighty suspicious this rise in gold with oil in the 'hole'......

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:00 - ID#212323)
Everyone MUST read Gold Dancer's 14:43.
Truth, simply put.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:01 - ID#35571)
Hopefully not the last hour gap filling profit taking.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:02 - ID#339274)
FWIW weak config sold 23 1/16

(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:03 - ID#35571)
The spread is widening...

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:03 - ID#377196)
I can't believe RANYD
Kebbble comes here all last week and gives his dog and pony show
across the US and this week it trades less volume than ever. Like
9,000 shares a day. Now today it is up 3/16 on 9,200 shares. Me thinks
that there is no stock available at this price. Of course, this price
is 1/2 of NAV so why should there be any selling here?

When some one decided they have to own this puppy it is going to
rise faster than any other stock I can think of. They should make
$1.00 a share next year or close to it with that climbing to several
dollars in a couple of years. And if gold rises to $600 then look out
this will be a hugh winner by the year 2002.

Of course the reverse split kind of knocked the socks off some of us
and we are a little p*****. But in the end it won't matter.

And Kebble says he won't distribute assets but rather merge with
someone else, maybe, but not for some time. My guess is that mergers
happen at two different times in a companies career: at the bottom of
markets ( which has not happened ) and at the top of markets ( which will
probable happen in 2001 or 2002 ) .


(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:08 - ID#411440)
ECB CB closures: I was just listening to CNBC, and heard that
for December, all member banks of the ECB will discontinue sales and
purchases. Does this mean that Euoropean CBs will discontinue gold
and silver leasing as well?

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 15:23 - ID#212323)
You might find that they already have.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:01 - ID#252391)
Deflationary talk trims gold share gains
The fall in oil and the rise in bonds casts a deflationary view over the market and makes gold stock ownership seem out of sync with fundlementals.

Notice that Palladium - $292.50 - break out!!! SWC over 35, even PT managed to maintain a bullish $352.

Have to check the charts but didn't gold take out last week's high, today.???

Still think we'll see a choppy rise in metals and miners.

Close today protends lower opening tomorrow, but there is plenty of potential news out there ( Russia being #1 ) that could kick this sector higher quickly.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:12 - ID#320202)
what could get the POG higher
just heard on CNBC some new rumors that money from sale of Iraqi-oil went to Saddam for ( may be ) weapons ????? hmmmmmmmmm

EZ Believer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:18 - ID#173262)
Gold Dancer ... RANYD The value is there.
Like me, you and your girlfriend suffered through some exaspirating
times the last several months as RANGY languised in a narrow trading
range with little volume while other companies took-off. Then we
finally built up a small unrealized profit and got the rug jerked out
from under us. Frustrating to say the least, but the value is there!
I feel the only real losers were the holders who sold during and right
after the confusion. The big winners were those smart enough to
buy during the spike down caused by the reverse split. While few
in number, they will be richly rewarded.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:18 - ID#225147)
Would, could, someone explain how the world has totally lost all logic or common sense! A gallon of supermarket water sells for two to three times as much as the wholesale price of a gallon of heating oil or a gallon of unleaded gasoline.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:24 - ID#119358)
@well sir, Ima' feelin' a leetle loooow 'bout that oil price,
but Ima' feelin' a leetle high 'bout that gOld price, yes siree, and all them shares goin' up seven or eight percent! So what's an ol' boy to do??? HuH?
Yup, I know what you're thinkin' I oughta' do....have a leeetle todie...uhHuH! ya'll are always right! thank you very muchly.' not fer long!

salud!!! ( gulp )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:26 - ID#194311)
Gold me I'm stupid.
Why 100 euro?
Keeping things metric, the number of grams of gold it would be 1 gram, 10 grams or 100 grams ( ouch! ) .

At 1 gram of gold = 100 euro, US$ is about 3000 per ounce
at 10 grams gold = 100 euro, US$ is about 300 per ounce
at 100 grams gold = 100 euro, US$ is about 30 per ounce.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:26 - ID#411440)
@ Aragorn III I think the leasing/gold carry is still on, its
just more dangerous now with interest rates falling and setting up
an obvious inflationary scenario. I got an e-mail from Silverbaron
stating that 50 CBs still lease, and that they are owed 4000 tons
of gold. He felt this tonnage was low ( as do I ) , but the lease game
is still possible at these forward rates, albeit with a shrinking
profit margin, and only if the short term treasury market holds up.

The threat of leasing has been keeping the spot POG tight and range
bound over the past week, with a tendency to weaken. IMHO

If the ECBs get out of the leasing game, if only for a month, that
would finally allow market fundamentals to lift the price of gold.

Lady bug: I guess my comment answers your question too. Good luck.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:29 - ID#119358)
@and.....ANOTHER predictshun by o'studio........
You will soon see Rum and Cola flowing in the same direction.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:32 - ID#45173)
Oh, oil vs. bottled water ain't so bad. Add some sugar and carmel coloring and $200M in marketing to that water -- compare Coca Cola to oil.

Welcome to the machine.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:32 - ID#290456)

Actually, the email I sent was a post extracted from vronsky's site.....not my thoughts - see the subject line ( you might want to repost it here )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:34 - ID#252391)
Do we really think the CB will stop leasing...
for a month. What is the source of that belief.....

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:35 - ID#24135)
I give up ..
Herr Link
were you ??

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:36 - ID#350179)
Toledo & Voyeur Prof FWIW in the last year
FGLDX tracks much closer to the HUI.X than the XAU.X.

Anybody have a quick constituent list for the HUI.X?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:38 - ID#343171)
is that like the gin/tonic carry trade
or maybe the hamms:dos equis contango?

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:43 - ID#212323)
You will indeed find leasing continues to this day and beyond from many sources. As you state, "50 CBs still lease". There are only 11 in the European System of Central banks moving into this grand unification, after all. And though they may abruptly halt leasing operations at any time ( past present or future--no matter ) the contracts already written will still stand until the terms are met. There would not suddenly be one day that all must be unwound. And again, there are other sources to be found for the supply-side of a short-sale/gold lease/forward sale. But it is as you say reaching a point of diminishing returns. And there are the obvious factors in the near-term that would support only the long side of the arrangement. Be on that side, gold in hand.

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:46 - ID#212323)
studiO.r ---your 16:29....HAR!
I read it five times! heh heh heh...thanks for the smile!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:50 - ID#411440)
@ Aragorn III: Agreed. A December freezing of ECB transactions
would not include the return of leased gold. I think all gold bugs
are beginning to perceive a plethera of positive factors converging
on POG, and the launch of the EURO. It is beginning.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 16:57 - ID#344286)
Xau & Hui list^XAU+ASA+ABX+BMG+ECO+HL+HM+NEM+PGU+PDG+GLD+TVX+^hui+aem+asa+bmg+cde+eco+fcx+glg+hl+hm+kgc+nem+wmc&detailed=f&options=t

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:00 - ID#119358) it pertains to the flow of gin and tonic.........
and the Hamms/Dos Equis ( tee hee ) ContangO...I must refrain from divulging my THOUGHTS at this time. At the end of this time, THOUGHTS will be offered by FRIEND OF STUDIO. You see I must be drunk, er....GONE for some time. ( gulp )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:02 - ID#45173)
Eskimo Pie gives Yogen Fruz bid the cold shoulder

RICHMOND, Va., Nov. 18 ( Reuters ) - Eskimo Pie Corp. ( Nasdaq:EPIE -
news ) , know for the ice cream bar that bears its name, gave Yogen Fruz
World-Wide Inc. ( Toronto:YFa.TO - news ) the cold shoulder on
Wednesday, saying the Canadian franchiser's $10.25 per share all cash offer for the company was not in the best interest
of shareholders.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:03 - ID#119358)
as always... ( gulpOs! ) .....mi amigO.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:12 - ID#377196)
KIWI--so am I (stupid that is)
Why 100? It is just an easy number for everyone to work with in
finalizing the POG and its apparent 15% fractional backing for the
EURO. It makes for a decimal system that is easy for everyone to calculate.

I mean it is not about a number so much as it is about a decimal
system even if you use grams of gold. Are not grams of gold posted in
decimals? Of course they are. They could use any number but our
numerical system is based on 0's . That came from the Arabs. The concept
of zero. Up till then the Romans had a lot of trouble and their numbering
system got complex.

It is just easy for everyone to deal with: 15% = .15 of gold per coin.

Easy. That is all my pea brain can come up with. They are not trying to
make this difficult which is nice to see.

THe unanswered question is what is 100 Euro worth. Worth in terms of
what? Dollars? the $ price of gold? Old currreny? I don't know.
So to me this is what the markets are being given 2 to 3 years years to
figure out. And all prices will adjust accordingly. We don't know
yet how many barrels of oil it will buy, or how many bushels of wheat.So
the benefit to use a number like 100 is that it is not a number it is a
decimal system. Of which 15% will be gold. The value of the other 85%
must therefore be determined and defined. So all commodity prices in the
ecomony will adjust according to the needs and desires of society
which will then find some relationship with the 15% gold backing of the
100 Euro. 100 here meaning 100=100% or complete with no left overs.

I don't have the brains to figure everything out, it just makes
sense to me why they have chosen the number 100 to use. Its our system
of numbering even in grams. It represents a total unit of anything.

Remember the price of everything else fluxuates around gold. Since
gold has been manipulated for a long time there is a lot of changes in
the price structure of the economy coming over the next couple of years.
Only then will we really know what the 100 Euro means or will buy.
It is just plain to see that there is no longer any reason for
the Central Banks to keep the price of gold dowm. And those who are
short are going to have to either replace the gold or I think bid
for Euros ( which is really bidding for the 85 % that is not gold ) .

In the end the markets will figure all this out. The end rsult is
that the POG is headed higher. As are all commodities.

I hope this helps. It helped me.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:14 - ID#50148)
MM, I don't know if this link will work....,32

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:16 - ID#50148)
Let's see if this one does....

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:19 - ID#50148)
MM, Hope that answers your HUI index question..
It seems that everyone has to prove how clever they can be in designing web sites....

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:26 - ID#50148)
Just in case someone is wondering about the XAU index...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:29 - ID#350179)
Cueball, Panda
Kewl : )
Muchas gracias for the XAU-HUI connex.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:32 - ID#343171)
minera andes
anyone here with an insight to mai-alberta junior?
aware of current activities but want to know if anyone
is a camp follower,TIA

is there a clinton beanie baby yet?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:37 - ID#200235)
This puppy seems to be getting sicker and sicker. Almost to yearly low. Anyone have thoughts, pro or con, ????????????

Personally, I have lost confidence in the manager.


(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:37 - ID#254288)
Another bent

I'm starting to get the feeling that CB gold loans, all of which move through merchant/bullion banks are not gold loans, but really cash loans to those banks, who then become obligated to pay principal and interest in cash.

The bullion never leaves the CB's vault except when the CB actually sells and only that delta not taken up by another CB reaches market.

If the CB vaults were being emptied of gold that probably would never come back, why hasn't the gold price moved higher, especially with the recent financial turmoil?

When this cash is loaned to a mining company; payback to the merchant/bullion bank will be by bullion, part of which maybe placed on the speculative markets for fees and commisions while the rest is sold into the market and goes to pay principal and interest to the CB that supplied the cash loan ( termed a gold loan ) to the merchant/bullion bank.

I feel reasonably sure that merchant/bullion banks had large bullion holdings well before -the termed gold loans- came into existence; this, plus gold placed into their hands by producer loans and from other sellers of gold have made their bullion holdings still greater. With thers large gold holdings earning nothing they had devise a plan to make them earn.

I am not saying that there isn't a lot of paper gold floating about; even hope that the shorts and their ilk pay a price equivalent to the havoc they caused.

While I have no respect for the CB's and the private bankers that control them, I think the CB's are home free and the bullion banks are potentially on the line, but as they become hooked; we must remember birds of a feather flock together. LTCM is a good example.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:39 - ID#266105)

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:43 - ID#290145)
CRB Index news
This one's worth a read for Palladium traders comments alone.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:48 - ID#45173)
Gold is Evil
In the old days, you had to work to make money. The fruit of your labor was money and the goods and services you could buy with it. But that was in ancient times. If you still think that way, you're a dope. Now you can borrow all the money you need to live like a king! If you think maybe you're maxed out and maybe it's time to cut back and do a little prudent saving, trust that the Fed will help you overcome this prehistoric impulse by lowering interest rates to try to get you to borrow more. If you borrow enough, the bank you borrow from will guarantee that the loan is repaid. If you borrow a completely astronomical and absurd amount of money that you can never pay back, that a greedy bank will loan you at sick rates that earn the money sales guy and his boss a nice bonus, then you are assured that a government ( usually the USA ) will take care of you. The government itself doen't have to guarantee that it can repay its loans either. Nope. That's a crazy old dumn-ass way of thinking. If you want to sell your government securities, you can trust that the government can always be able to print the money necessary. Brilliant!

This is much better than the old days when you as an individual or the government as an institution was required to have even a tiny, itty-bitty, amount of financial integrity.

Well, off to run up my credit card buying beenie babies. Now THERE is an INVESTMENT!


(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:50 - ID#194311)
Gold Dancer.... What is 15% backing?
I don't buy this crap.

All currencies are 100% gold backed, it's just the amount of goods your currency will buy that varies, normally going down due to usurious actions of moneyed elite in banks and pulling gov. strings.

So to say a currency is 15% gold backed is a load of bollocks. It just means the currency is 100% gold backed at a 85% diluted value, no?

If the 100 euro has 15 grams of gold in it it will be worth exactly that, 15 grams of gold, no more, no less....let's not confuse the issue.

If the europeans then decide to maintain a legal tender coin ( note only commemorative at this stage ) worth 100 euros with 15 grams of gold in it then they had better keep their financial house ship-shape, or else there will be a run on these coins in short order...this is the essence of arbitrage. This is why the Brits demanded U$3bill in gold from the US in 1971 and destroyed Bretton-Woods. It will be up to the ECB to maintain the coin at face value and any wavering from this would be seen as a failure of the euro as a sound money.

If they have chosen gold as their arbiter then had better show more mettle than the US has done this century.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:54 - ID#119358)
a point well made. this dumbass university......we both know where these graduates are headed...yes. da' dumbass poorhouse. un GulpO y un PuffO to YA!!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:55 - ID#389387)
@kiwi "All currencies are 100% gold backed"
You're trolling aren't you?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 17:58 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Kiwi -- Well put! That tends to hit the nail on the head!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:00 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.39. The 233 day moving average is 29.02

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:01 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .263. The 233 day moving average is .249

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:01 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Kiwi -- Except that they claim their gold is a 'reserve', not 'backing'. Reserve being something they can utilize for 'emergency' fire-fighting purposes when the currency goes for fire-sale prices.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:09 - ID#194311)
Nope...I've said this before,to talk about a percentage gold backing for a currency is outright nonsense, the Swiss probably cooked up the phrase to fool others into thinking they weren't really going off a gold standard.

They say the Swiss franc is 40% gold backed right? Doesn't this merely mean they have devalued their currency by 60% relative to gold. So the outcome is instead of having one franc backed by 100% by 1 gold ounce, you now have 1.6 francs backed 100% by 1 gold ounce.

In the sense that all currencies sooner or later are measured for their worth against gold, they are all 100% gold backed.

See the USdollar is 100% backed too...hahaha, it's just now it's $US300 backed 100% by 1 ounce instead of, US$1 backed 100% by 1 ounce as it was last century.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:10 - ID#343259)
Wood Chip Gassification
Now that the market's closed, I thought I'd chime in with a personal experience with woodchip gassification. I had a friend in Montpelier Vermont with a farm and hydroponic greenhouse. He would grow about 1500 lettuces per week during the dead of winter. He fueled the boilers ( Standard oil burner type hot water delivery to air handlers in the greenhouse, kept it a nice, pleasant temperature year round. There were 2 boilers, each about 750,000 BTU's per hour. He made his own gassifier out of spare parts. He retrofitted the burner nozzles because the wood gas was "hotter" than oil. The flame shot across the bottom of the boiler a good 10 to 12 feet. Neat project. He sent out flyers to other farms and had over 200 others show up to see his project. It worked very very well.

I was most impressed with the degree of combustion. He brought in the wood chips in a farm-storage-unit ( farmers will know what I'm talking about even if I don't ) . It is about 8 feet high, about 12 feet wide, and about 40 feet long, and is on skids that a tractor can tow. Anyway, the total ash from burning one of these skid-storage units was less than a 5 gallon bucket, of extremely fine ash.

How it worked. The wood chips were gotten from woodchippers who chipped for the highway. They were happy to dump them. They could be any size, but I think he paid them a little extra if they would chop them finer than normal. One skid lasted about a week. The gassifier itself was a homebrew contraption, that used an auger to get the wood chips up to a conveyer belt. The conveyer delivered it to a hopper that had a rotating wheel with "flexible" flaps made of steel ( sorta like a garbage truck has one door to keep the garbage from coming back out, while a 2nd pushes the next load in ) . The gassifier was about 20 inches or so, cubed, and sat on top of a wood heater. He would start the wood fire, and the chips would be heated anerobically ( sorta like a charcoaler ) to yield the gas, that was piped to the nozzles ( there must have been some regulation system there but I can remember, it was 28 years ago.

As far as using it to power moving vehicles, generators, why not? But the concept definitely works. -cg [ps only 9,816 hours left]

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:19 - ID#263456)
Since the markets are closed...

Tort...was that you?

A lawyer ( tort ) was flying on an airplane and sitting beside this beautiful blonde...wanted to strike up a said:
Lets play a game...I'll ask you a question, if you cannot answer it you give me 50 bucks. ...then you ask me one for 50 bucks...OK..
She said no...and so being a BLONDE, the lawyer thought he would make a better deal..
OK...If you ask me a question I cannot answer I will give you $50...and if I ask you one that you cannot answer you give me only $5.

Sure she first. The Lawyer asked who whas the commanding general of the Union forces during the civil way. She shrugged and gave him $5 ...then she asked him:
What goes up hill on 3 legs and comes back down inside out, backwards and on 4 legs?
The lawyer consulted his computer, search the internet, email his buddies, but could not come up with the he gave her $50 and asked her the answer.
She shrugged and have him $5..

heh heh heh ( Dumb blonde huh )
go golf and silvef

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:20 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Kiwi -- Currency going for fire sale prices; Generally happens when the currency has lost its 'conning power' and it is found to not be backed by anything worth too much anymore, like full-faith-and-credit. That's the point when all those units of currency are finally equated to golds value.

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:24 - ID#212323)
EUROs and whatnot
Gold Dancer, in response to your questions and comment:
"The unanswered question is what is 100 Euro worth. Worth in terms of
what? Dollars? the $ price of gold? Old currreny? I don't know.
So to me this is what the markets are being given 2 to 3 years years to
figure out. And all prices will adjust accordingly."
I offer what follows from the Maastricht Treaty. You will see in Section 4 how a euro ( or 100 euros ) will be initially valued--or to put another way, what it will be worth in terms of the 11 member currencies. At the end I will highlight an important point.

1. By way of derogation from Article 228, the Council may, acting
unanimously on a recommendation from the ECB or from the Commission, and
after consulting the ECB in an endeavour to reach a consensus consistent
with the objective of price stability, after consulting the European
Parliament, in accordance with the procedure in paragraph 3 for
determining the arrangements, conclude formal agreements on an exchange
rate system for the ECU in relation to non-Community currencies. The
Council may, acting by a qualified majority on a recommendation from the
ECB or from the Commission, and after consulting the ECB in an endeavour
to reach a consensus consistent with the objective of price stability,
adopt, adjust or abandon the central rates of the ECU within the
exchange rate system. The President of the Council shall inform the
European Parliament of the adoption, adjustment or abandonment of the
ECU central rates.
2. In the absence of an exchange rate system in relation to one or more
non- Community currencies as referred to in paragraph 1, the Council,
acting by a qualified majority either on a recommendation from the
Commission and after consulting the ECB or on a recommendation from the
ECB, may formulate general orientations for exchange-rate policy in
relation to these currencies. These general orientations shall be
without prejudice to the primary objective of the ESCB to maintain price

4. At the starting date of the third stage, the Council shall, acting
with the unanimity of the Member States without derogation, on a
proposal from the Commission and after consulting the ECB, adopt the
conversion rates at which their currencies shall be irrevocably fixed
and at which irrevocably fixed rate the ECU shall be substituted for
these currencies, and the ECU will become a currency in its own right.
This measure shall by itself not modify the external value of the ECU.
The Council shall, acting according to the same procedure, also take the
other measures necessary for the rapid introduction of the ECU as the
single currency of those Member States.
Note the second to last sentence: "This measure shall BY ITSELF not modify the external value of the ECU." So, you can review the current exchange rates among the ECU basket of currencies to get a good idea of the initial starting point purchasing power of the euro and approximation for the internal rates soon to be fixed. BUT, with the fair market pricing of gold, the external value of the euro will adjust itself accordingly. Here's a hint: a currency will only be as valuable as the amount of gold it can purchace on a fair and open market.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:26 - ID#377196)
What you say is mostly true but credit does have value and so
does confidence and military power and intellectual capacity etc.

I did not say nor did I mean to, what the paper proportion of the
coin would be worth. This is for the market to decide probably after
seeing what debts can be repaid etc.

If what you say is true that all currencies are 100% backed then
why are commodities so cheap when there are so many US$ outstanding.
There are hundreds of billions of currency notes in foreign countries.

There are trillions of $ worth of derivitives and still the US dollar
is worth a lot in terms of goods. Why is this: confidence.

A 15% backing means that there can still be leverage in the monetary
system. Our economic systems demands it. It needs it. Growth needs it.
So we will have a leveraged gold exchange standard but one that is not
as leveraged as the present system. Hedge funds will never again be
able to take 4 billion and borrow 125 billion.

A contained system can probalbly keep losses from being more than the
15% backing on a total basis. So 15% is a hell of a lot better situation
than we have now.

Yes, eventually the nominal 85 % may not be worth much. But then the
15% will appreciate keeping the value in a range that prevents total
breakdown like in Russia, Indonesia etc.

The fraction gold exchange standard seems to me to be a cross between
what we have now and a complete gold standard which is really impossible
at this time. It may grow into that over a period of 10 to 30 years
I don't know.

This is just how I understand what is happening. IF the whole thing is
a hoax then all bets are off. But if the Euro is for real, and I think
it is, then they have already declared their intentions. It is now
up to the markets to put a value on the "real" portion which is gold
and the nominal portion which is confidence. I think they BOTH have
a real value.

We all depend on one another to live in this world. If the farmers
don't sell their food then I have to become a farmer. I don't want to
be a farmer but I have the confidence that he does and will continue
to want to. I put a value on this. There is a value in faith. Even
a monetary value. These values will be decided over the next few years.

God forbid we ever have a system of a total gold coin system. What
would happen to the debt markets? Pension plans, IRAs.

A fractional system has built the world. It ain't going to change now.
Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:31 - ID#194311)
Yep. The big CONfidence game rolls on.

I think the euro gold backing is a crock because I don't see any new open, trustworthy governance coming out of ECB so far only fork-tonguing and obfuscation. Same banks in europe playing the same games as in US as they have done since late 1800's.

But it may help the dumb-ass populace to wonder ( for a few collective milliseconds ) just what money is and "hey!, perhaps we're getting screwed?!...nah..." back to sleep 'n slavery. In this short period true money will show it's worth as poor imitations shrivel.

Who Cares?
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:39 - ID#242214)
Euro Gold Backing

I think it's a crock, too. I think the European nations will do
the minimum necessary to get the thing going, and the minimum necessary
to draw savings out of $$$.

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:39 - ID#212323)
Gold Dancer
My 18:24 was a long-winded technical way to say that if you currently held an amount of one of the Member State's currencies sufficient to, say, buy a month supply of groceries, after the euro conversion, the amount of euros you now hold will be capable to make that same purchase. This is the price stability that the ECB is targeting. Gold is the one commodity that will rise in value in euro terms while other prices remain stable--facilitating a contented population. Exchange rate stability is yet another beast. Due to the proper role gold is allowed to play, the exchange rate vs. the dollar, for example, will reveal the dollar to be considerably weaker than we might imagine. If it can't be used to purchase gold ( and therefore oil ) , it won't be of much value and low in exchange demand.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:41 - ID#343171)
The IMFs Policy on beanie babies

In 1995 the IMFs Executive Board reviewed the role of beanie babies in the IMF and concluded that its policy on beanie babies should be governed by the following principles:

As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, beanie babies provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF beanie babies should avoid weakening its overall financial position.

beanie babies holdings provide the IMF with operational maneuverability both as regards the use of its resources and through adding credibility to its precautionary balances. In these respects, the benefits of the IMFs beanie babies holdings are passed on to the membership at large, to both creditors and debtors.

The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of beanie babies among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.

The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the beanie babies market.

Profits from any sales of beanie babies should be retained and only the income deriving from the investment of those profits used for any operations that might be agreed.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:41 - ID#43349)
Gotta have gold

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:43 - ID#372276)
Isn't the Swiss franc effectively 200% backed?

Also, could you expand on the Bank of England...1971...$3Bil...please


(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:45 - ID#45173)
As someone who is laughed at regularly by his friends for owning some, I can say that it's not a relaxing play. I've observed that when the prospects for making money in BEARX are at their lowest, the NAV is at it's peak. Everyone was buying in AFTER the market corrected almost 20% in August. They promptly bailed a month later. What did they expect? Another -20% right away? BEARX is the bear mutual fund marketed to clueless Fidelity Yuppies who've lost their faith, but only temporarily, it appears. I stay in BEARX cause there will be no warning bell or report on CNN to tell me that the market will be crashing again. An event will trigger the next "disengagement" and the market will crash faster than a 747 will bad fuel tanks.

Anyone still in this stock market deserves to get their face ripped off. BEARX may or may not be a good play for a crash. We'll see. It's not a good play during a dead cat bounce, unless you believe as I do that I'll get in to late on the short side if I wait. A place of gambling money only, in my opinion. But then again, these days, when the dollar can drop 13% in 48 hours, even cash is a gamble.


Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:49 - ID#212323)
Rhody, in addition to what I indicated to you, I want you to understand THIS!
This event approached in forty days, and is planned out in the Maastricht Treaty. Please note 23.2.

got gold?
Liquidation of the EMI

23.1. In accordance with Article 109l of this Treaty, the EMI shall go
into liquidation on the establishment of the ECB. All assets and
liabilities of the EMI shall then pass automatically to the ECB. The
latter shall liquidate the EMI according to the provisions of this
Article. The liquidation shall be completed by the beginning of the
third stage.

23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US dollars
as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS agreement shall be unwound by
the first day of the third stage in accordance with Article 20 of the
said Agreement.

23.3. All claims and liabilities arising from the very short-term
financing mechanism and the short-term monetary support mechanism, under
the Agreements referred to in Article 6.1, shall be settled by the first
day of the third stage.

23.4. All remaining assets of the EMI shall be disposed of and all
remaining liabilities of the EMI shall be settled.

23.5. The proceeds of the liquidation described in Article 23.4. shall
be distributed to the national central banks in accordance with the key
referred to in Article 16.2

23.6. The Council of the EMI may take the measures necessary for the
application of Articles 23.4. and 23.5.

23.7. Upon the establishment of the ECB, the President of the EMI shall
relinquish his office.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:50 - ID#226299)
@the scene
CoolJing -- HAR!!!

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:51 - ID#377196)
To say that a currency will only have value to only as much gold
as it will purchase is not completely true if you read my last post.
Confidence and faith and trust, as well as military might also
have a value beyond gold or in addition to gold. Tell me if this is
wrong? Are we really going back to a book entry world? Maybe that
was necesssary in the wild west with undeveloped capital markets etc.
but surely gold is not the only real value there is. I guess that
the Europeans are saying gold represents 15% of a whole value.

That is what the 100 Euro is: a whole value. It is not a number per se.

The markets are going to put a value on the whole of which 15% will
be gold.

No one at this time knows what that value will be. Only that it will
represent 100% when it is valued. Right now the exchange mechanism
says they can buy so much oil but if we are going to add gold to the
picture as a fixed percentage and the price of gold has been manipulated
downwards then it seems to me that this value will change.

But as you say the beginning is only the starting point and I agee.
Over the next couple of years this will change and the final amount
of gold to be put into the coin will be determined at that time.

The paper Euro will just have a 15% backing, but with the price of
gold rising no one will complain. THe question is will the POG change
in the price of EUROs or just Dollars?

I would appreciate your letting me know where I am going wrong here.

But wrong or not gold is going to rise in terms of $. YES?

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:55 - ID#411440)
@ Aragorn III: Thank you. That is a heavy document, particularly
when read out of context. In answer to your last question: Yes.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:56 - ID#430221)
Thanks Aragorn III and Silverbaron for the advice and sites
- Most grateful and I'll follow all that up. The site for inexpensive coins and jewelry looks great - very glad to know about that place. I'm a little leary of the auction for anything valuable just because I don't know the field well enough not to feel I could easily get fooled, but for small stuff it could be fun. My husband buys and sells films and film memorabilia at auctions on the net all the time, but then he knows that stuff inside out and probably knows values better than whomever he is dealing with - as you guys probably also do for gold coins. Me, I'm not so sure.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:57 - ID#377196)
ARAGORN 111 Your 18:39

Mine was an even longer winded version of yours. I agree with what
you said in a few words. No problem here. Or that was what I meant to

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 18:59 - ID#226299)
@the scene
GoldDancer -- Commodities are cheap HERE. They are not so 'cheap' in the local currencies in other countries. Cheap being relative to the peoples purchasing power. That's just the currencies sloshing about causing 'cheap' to fall in ones lap while 'expensive' to fall in another lap. Funny how those paper units slosh about. I wonder if gold has about the same purchasing power in all of the countries ( except for slight vagaries of the markets ) .

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:01 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Oh yeah, let us not forget to also calulate those prices whilst leveling those costs associated with taxes and legislations.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:02 - ID#210114)
Beaming In.....

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:03 - ID#255283)
@plaintalker (Insanity):your 16:18
Thanks for telling us this simple truth:
wow! It takes me a long time for this fact to sink into my head.
One gallon of water at Giant is offered between $0.85 and $1.25...and I pay for fuel $1.05 per gallon. wow! I never realized how insane this is!

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:04 - ID#377196)
Beaming out. Going dancing tonight.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:07 - ID#285392)
BUYER BEWARE***Would you call this a rip-off???
I placed an order for a gold exploration company 2 weeks ago @ .05 cents. I was the only one on the high bid side for the last two weeks. My 25,000 order was partially filled and the order was an open one. Yesterday I discovered that orders from three other brokerage houses were filled @ .05 cents and not mine. Today the same thing happened. I was under the impression that if you were first with your bid, the order was open and that you would be filled first. NOT SO! The others bid the same amount after me and they were filled. My broker told me that that is the way the Toronto Stock Exchange does business, they can allocate the shares to whomever they like at the same price as your previous order. To me this seems to generate extra commissions for the trader and leaves persons such as you and I with no fill and no prospect of being filled as long as any new bidder comes in at the same price as mine.

If you don't like their method of doing business go elseware.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:14 - ID#194311)
Gold Dancer...I appreciate what your saying
This very questioned has vexed me for some time, why is the US$ still so strong after all it's neglect? The answer is too horrible to contemplate that it may have happened intentionally, it is a mistake of history shall we say.

What has happened is the biggest pyramid scheme in history, and there's not even any tupperware or shampoo involved, just dollar bills and oil. By agreeing to the denomination of oil in dollars the world has subscribed to a global currency by default, all moderately advanced countries burn oil. As the demand for oil rises so to the demand for dollars. With an ever growing global demand for oil the US has been able to pump trillions of dollars into their system without devalueing their buck that much and a nice side effect is cheap oil in the US with associated wealth.

Who are the losers? The rest of the world's currencies of course, unless they were gold backed, but IMF acting as the gold police made sure nobody else had a look in. This global demand for oil/dollars is what is known as the exporting of inflation by America and if there was court I could take someone to I would, and win. America ( moneyed elite only of course ) you are guilty of bleeding the nations of the world of their money. This is what the faith 'n credit bullsh!t is about, this why there is a huge US military presence near the oil reserves of the Mid-East.

But as we all know sooner or later all pyramid schemes fail when they run out of new participants, a drop in oil demand will do this or indeed another currency with which to buy oil. At this point all the "middle" players in the pyramid who were on easy street on the up elevator are suddenlt left holding a piece of paper saying what level in the pyramid they were at. Hmmm this is sounding more and more like what happens when the market crashes and you have it fixed in your head what your stock was worth, what your house was worth, what your car was worth...before THE CRASH....the US crash will be bigger tahn Japan's by orders of magnitude because they were not holding the oil money of the world for the last 30 years up on faith n' credit.....America you're broke! Even software sales and aircraft carriers aren't gonna get this cash cow milking again.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:15 - ID#226299)
@the scene
snowbird -- Got to expect crap like that from backward third-world exchanges. Only very slightly surprising to hear that about the Toronto exchange. Kinda' like have to bribe 'em no doubt. Would hate to have to bale out really fast in that scenario!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:15 - ID#45173)
Fiat money wins out in the end?
A lie never lives to be old.
- Sophocles, Acrisius. Frag. 59.

Got a date with my dear wife. Seeya later.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:15 - ID#257309)
Neoliberal Capitalism & Globalization

" PHILADELPHIA, Nov 16 ( Reuters ) - The crisis now raging in the world's emerging economies could be linked to other major problems that have erupted in the global financial system in recent years, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said on Monday.

Volcker, once a giant among world economic policymakers who is credited with taming inflation during the 1980s, said financial crises have been, ``coming with increasing frequency and severity'' since the international debt debacle that paralyzed the Third World for a decade beginning in 1982."

The common all the crisis have had, since 1982, is excess indebness. Why?

Because of excess liquidity in the banks and individuals that makes them take more risk looking after increased revenues. The oil sheiks started at first, pouring money in the western banks, that in turn lend relentlessly to the Latin American countries. Why? Excess of liquidy in their hands, why again? because of increased oil price and increased liquidity from the CB of western countries to balance the recesionary forces : Uneven distribution of the richness of the planet. Too few people with too much money. Financial Assets inflation.

Middle class seem disappearing everywhere and specially now with the globalization that is driving resources from the undeveloped countries to the developed ones, specially the USA . This is not a coincidence.

Indebtedness is spreading further. The money has to be put at work. Anybody can borrow. ...until they cannot pay anymore and the lenders losses all. Then, not even the good borrower will get a credit.

As I once mentioned, it is my opinion that this money has been contained into going freely into the economy, because of the interest rates dikes, that were kept high and through that, producing only financial assets inflation. Now interest are coming down, trying to rescue the borrower and through it the lender. No matter, the economic machine has stopped in Asia and already a proportionate part of the world economy is already doom to be broke. This will produce a retrenchment of the lending that will worsen the situation of the borrowers and lenders... and panicking. Deflation is in the picture. Inflation comes after with extra strength as the financia assets deflates.

We are still in the deflation phase. The crumbling of the big debtors of the world will herald the start of the inflationary phase.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:20 - ID#210114)
Euro Gold Coin
I await with much interest further information on the Euro gold coin saga.

Will the finance ministers approve it?

I hope so.

I do think this will be bullish for gold.

It will give confidence to the Euro, it will absorb any surplus gold th CBs want to get rid of without depressing market price, and it may very well absorb some new mine produstion.

I hope they do it.

I will buy sime myself if they are available.

Live Long and Prosper.

Greenstone Gold
(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:26 - ID#428232)
Kiwi.........well said Sir.........

Technically, America may be able to resolve their situation of debt only via GOLD. They have substantial resources and reserves, and a re-evaluation of the GOLD price upwards may resolve the situation.

BUT, what price GOLD ???????!!!!!!!!!!

Something has got to give, and only the "wee man" up above knows what the GOLD price will be.

Tick tok, tick tok.......the debt is still mounting

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:33 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 18

Gold 829,723 + 11,578 troy ounces
Silver 76,022,243 + 321,507 troy ounces
Copper 69,515 + 0 short tons

N/A= Not available.
Silver has been consistantly coming back in this week. Although, we
musn't lose focus of the fact that Silver Warehouse Totals are still
at RECORD lows!

silver plate
(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:36 - ID#234253)
Public debt: new all time high? what is the present limit?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:37 - ID#288186)
BTW, it looks like Platinum and Palladium did well today...
Of course, Gold and Silver did all right, too. I just checked
overnite trading, and Platinum has hit 356.50! Go Platinum!

Go Gold! Go Silver!
See ya,

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:41 - ID#290456)
Gold to mark the Great Pyramid for Y2K

Great Pyramid to acquire gold-encased apex on
Millennium Day

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:41 - ID#226299)
@the scene
5.95 Trillion is the 'current' debt ceiling. Don't worry. They'll raise it when the two numbers conjoin some more.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:47 - ID#290456)
Trying again on the Pyramid link
( it's a webtv glitch )

Great Pyramid to acquire gold-encased apex on Millennium Day

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:50 - ID#253153)
Deflation is accelerating---Crude oil closed at $12.15 bbl.
The multiple PE on the SPX is 29.50, very high indeed. The advance decline on the NYSE is refusing to rise and have bounced back very little since the low's were recorded on Sep 2. We have not had much tax selling so far and I doubt if we will get any at all in 1998. Gold is acting well and rising slowly. The bull market in gold wants to rise with as few participants as possible. The oil industry is being creamed and over all economic activity is declining. I believe in early 1999 equities will begin to decline in earnest . Lower prices will reduce or elliminate profits all together. Hang to your gold and mining shares.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:51 - ID#348257)
Alexis, you say:

"As I once mentioned, it is my opinion that this money has been contained into going freely into the
economy, because of the interest rates dikes, that were kept high and through that, producing only
financial assets inflation. Now interest are coming down, trying to rescue the borrower and through it
the lender. "

I agree with the second part, but as for the first part, wasn't it declining interest rates over 2 decades that fueled the financial asset bull? Not high rates.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:52 - ID#194311)
Silver apt.
Only those at the top of the Great Pyramid scheme got gold ; )

Hey, that's us...
I feel better already,
we be at the top of the gretest pyramid scheme ever.

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:54 - ID#212323)
Gold Dancer--a reply
First, subject to unforseen changes, this is how it stands. The euro currency ( proper ) will not begin circulation until 2002. Until then it will circulate as do most american transactions--that is to say on checks or as electronic transfers. In cash transactions the Member currencies will act as euro proxies on a fixed conversion rate. The 100 euro gold coin is to be a pure bullion coin ( as is the current Wienner Philharmoniker coin ) that may be purchased at fair market value. The coin is principly symbolic, and would not be traded with regard to its face value. ( Much like all other modern bullion coins ) . In fact, you may choose to view this coin as a replacement for the Philharmoniker.

You said, "To say that a currency will only have value to only as much gold as it will purchase is not completely true if you read my last post.
Confidence and faith and trust, as well as military might also
have a value beyond gold or in addition to gold. Tell me if this is

Think of an extreme case of Gresham's law...where one currency is SO BAD that it can't drive out the strong currency because NO ONE WILL ACCEPT IT AS PAYMENT! An American may have "confidence and faith and trust, as well as military might", but that does not ensure the money will be accepted in other parts of the world. US citizens are not allowed to storm into a neighborhood gas station with guns blazing to help themselves to whatever they like. No, they are expected to be civil and pay whatever price is asked, or else shop elsewhere. The same expectation holds true for the Government representing the nation as a whole. If the US is allowed to engage in armed robbery for whatever it wants, then further conversation on this matter is questionable.

"Are we really going back to a book entry world?", you asked.

No, the euro will appear to function to the casual observer as modern currencies do today. The difference is in the process involved for creation of additional currency units. In the U.S., paper begets paper. A bond serves as collateral for a loan ( creation ) of additional Federal Reserve Notes ( dollars ) . With interst owed, this is a losing game as evidenced by the growing and unpayable National Debt. In euro land, the European Central Bank and the European System of Cental Banks are expressly prohibited from purchasing goverment overdrafts or intitutional debt. If a nation cannot balance its books, to obtain the additional currency it needs it may provide collateral of sufficiant size in the form of a non-interest bearing asset ( gold ) . Certainly, the matter does not easily lend itself to explanation. Look how few people can get their mind around the U.S. process of accounting. I think it is ok to characterize the spirit of the euro-process with a simple model that says new ECB issued euros will only be abailable as purchased with gold. Remember, this is just a overly simplified conceptual model.

Don't let the current ECB reserves confuse the issue...presently approx. $50 billion dollars of which 15% is gold ( 700 tonnes ) and 85% is paper, mostly US Dollars. If the paper becomes worthless--suffers an extreme drop in purchasing power and exchange rate with other paper--then you might just as well ignore it from the equation. The euro would be building its foundation on sand ( or in the sky! ) if it allowed itself to be purchased into creation upon the offering of US Dollars. These dollars must first buy gold, which is used to obtain euros. And do not trouble to ask how euros might be able to buy gold, being "backed" by only 15%. To this I would say, look at the US dollar buying gold, being backed by only 0.0% gold! My internet presentation skills do not lend themselves to resolving that to you satisfaction. Face to face we could reach the necessary understanding.

You asked, "The paper Euro will just have a 15% backing, but with the price of gold rising no one will complain. THe question is will the POG change in the price of EUROs or just Dollars?"

You answered your own question earlier when you said "I guess that
the Europeans are saying gold represents 15% of a whole value.
That is what the 100 Euro is: a whole value. It is not a number per se.
The markets are going to put a value on the whole of which 15% will
be gold." Yes, the MARKETS! And when the markets see that the 85% paper portion of the reserves have no purchasing power, what remains is gold to underpin the euro's value. As you will witness the goods-purchasing power of the euro to be maintained by the market, it will be apparent to the discerning eye that the value of gold as money has returned to its true place.

You concluded with this question "But wrong or not gold is going to rise in terms of $. YES?"


(Wed Nov 18 1998 19:54 - ID#290456)

'Greatest Pyramid Scheme'.....wish I'd thought of that. ( ;^ ) )

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:12 - ID#212323)
A final point to add to my previous post to enhance understanding.
The 15% "backing" people refer to is a misnomer. It is best to disregard that notion altogether! The 15% simply refers to the ONE TIME START-UP fraction of the official foreign exhange reserves--itself a value just under $50 Billion for a euro money supply of approx $1.3 Trillion.
That specific gold has no bearing on an individual euro. But all new euros may be purchased into creation from the ECB with gold! The gold reserves with grow, but 15% is a meaningless value. OK? Thus endeth the lesson.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:15 - ID#26793)
Gold share rally tied to WGC press release

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:25 - ID#194311)
Gulp and a puff ( electric puha only ya know; )


(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:27 - ID#226299)
@the scene
kiwi -- Re: Only those at the top of the Great Pyramid scheme got gold ;
Yea, but only for a day...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:31 - ID#26793)
U.S. and Japan flood the globe with cash in an attempt to halt deflation.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:46 - ID#290456)
Big brother is watching

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:46 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Donald -- And it won't help as NONE of it has alleviated the debt situation, and can't without further ruining purchasing power, which further exacerbates the non-payment syndrome. Smoking paper can now be seen by those who remove their 'shades'. Debt funded with debt. What a concept. With governments as we all now, why bother with the bother of having them...

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:49 - ID#282207)
The U.S. government ( the Fed ) is printing money faster than ever. which is going to eventually lead to too many dollars chasing too few goods.
From: KEVIN TISDALL Wednesday, Nov 18 1998 8:47PM ET
Reply # of 373 OF THE DAY: Commodities rose slightly on Wednesday, while precious metals closed higher across the board. Gold gained $3.30, silver added 4.5 cents, platinum rallied $3.50, and palladium soared $11.65. Gold thus moved above its 200-day moving average after fluctuating about that key technical level for several consecutive trading days. Generally such a resolution leads to further gains as chartists go long. The U.S. dollar staged a late rally. Bonds rose; the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surrendered more than half of its early gains by the end of the day. The stock market was generally higher, though breadth was unimpressive. Internet shares moved out of the Milky Way Galaxy into the great beyond, though even the discovery of extraterrestrials would not be able to generate sufficient profits to justify current valuations.

According to the World Gold Council, total worldwide demand for gold in the 3rd quarter of 1998 was 676 tonnes, 1% below the 3rd quarter of 1997, and marking a sharp increase from depressed levels earlier in the year caused by temporarily reduced buying from countries in economic recession. This is especially significant since citizens of those countries, faced with substantially lower buying power especially in U.S. dollar terms, have resumed their pre-recession purchase volumes. The 1998 level therefore represents a much higher percentage of total disposable income being spent on gold than in 1997.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:53 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Anybody ever pile up a nice little mound of fallen leaves and put a lit match within the center of it and got a couple leaves smoldering? Very quickly, a curl of smoke is seen wafting about. The addition of wheel barrows full of leaves will not quench what is about to burst forth. And that is what they are doing with the printing presses; adding more FUEL for the flames. It is just that those flames can be kept hidden/buried for a few more minutes ( maybe ) .

(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:56 - ID#290213)
From the mouths of babes. Too true, too sad.
A Child's Letter:
I'm told the following letter recently appeared in the Arkansas Democrat
Gazette, and was picked up and read by Chuck Colson on his national
radio show, 'Break Point'. Colson called the letter 'brilliant'.

'RE: Character Matters, says 16-year-old To the Editor:

I am 16 years old. Though I am not old enough to vote, I am writing
this on behalf of my generation. The recent speech by the President and the reaction of our nation to it gives me reason to write this letter in hope that those who read it will be challenged to look closely at the condition of our nation. In the President's speech he admitted to having a relationship with Monica Lewinsky that was 'improper' and 'wrong.' Then he said, 'it was time to move on'. Many people have said that the President's private affairs are his own business and people should not pry. Others have said that the President's private affairs do not affect the job he does. The President himself touched lightly upon the supposed injustice of prying into his personal life in his speech.

Hugo Grotius said that a man cannot govern a nation if he cannot govern a city, he cannot govern a city if he cannot govern a family, he cannot govern a family unless he can govern himself, and he cannot govern himself unless his passions are subject to Reason. The President is accountable to the people. We must know whether he can control himself or not. If the President cannot control himself he certainly is not capable of governing a nation. Yet we sit in our
selfishness and refuse to look at the truth because it does not feel good. We look at the nation and see a booming economy. We look around and see prosperity and say, 'Why should we mess this up? 'And yes, Mr. Clinton has helped with all these things. But there are better things than financial security, and there are worse things than poverty. We give the control to a man who can make us feel good but cannot control himself.

I would like to call your attention to a recent international affair where Pakistan and India were developing nuclear weapons. The President offered a deal to Pakistan saying that if they would stop developing nuclear weapons the United States would protect them in the case of an attack. The Pakistani minister of foreign affairs said that he did not believe that the President ( Clinton ) would follow through on his promise. This was because he saw the character of our President
and realized he could not be trusted. This endangered the lives of the
citizens of Pakistan and India, more than 900 million people. Although war has not broken out, we must heed the warning: the character of the President effects the entire world. The American people have chosen to become selfish, and my generation-your children-are growing up seeing the highest authority in America, a man who cannot control himself. Why should I put others first when the President himself will not even put his duty to his wife or his nation before his sexual desires?

I'm asking you, the generation that holds the voting power, to think of your children and the future of the world. If we cannot trust our President to fulfill his marriage vows, can we trust him to do what he has promised us? And if we cannot trust the man our parents elect, can we trust our parents? You owe it to the world, you owe it to God, and you owe it to your children to consider this.

Christopher Vincent

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 18 1998 20:59 - ID#377196)
Thank you for your latest post of 20:12. I think we come to the same
basic understanding from two differnt minds. Sometime working the same
and at other times coming from different directions. This is all to the good.
Your intelligence has certainly stimulated by thinking about what is
going on and I thank you for that.
You have a better understanding in some areas and I enjoy your posts.

Most of all I see some eventful times coming and I hope all of us
and you AragornIII prosper and that hubris does not invade our tent.

Must leave now. Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:05 - ID#280214)
In addition to Gold - consider other barter goods for post Y2K
To induce hunters to bring you food and especially if
you don't or can't hunt you should seriously consider
buying several boxes of common hunting ammunition.
You could trade with deer hunters ammo for meat.
You could trade some shotgun shells for some rabbits.
You could trade several boxes of 22 ammo for a turkey.
Ask your local sporting goods store
what the more common or popular sizes are.
12 gauge shotgun shells in #2, #4, #6 shot.
22 long rifle ammo - hollow points.
30-06 shells - 150 or 180 grains
Consider gun cleaning fluids, patches and gun oil
and anything else the hunters in the field may need
and may trade meat in order to get it.

On second thought - make that several to many boxes
of EACH of the more popular types of ammo.
In the Alaskan gold fields back in the Klondike days
I understand that boxes of rifle cartridges were a
common form of "money" - traded for everything.
Maybe cartridges were more useful LOCALLY than Gold.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:06 - ID#72206)
@ snowbird
Was your order an open order?.. If you are the first to bid on a stock at a higher price then the previous bid then your bid gets priority for the first ten board lots that trade at that price on the day of entry. If it is left in as open or GTC then you share whatever trades starting the next day on a pro rata basis except on the opening trade where it is not pro rata but divided equally between the buy orders. Perhaps some people put in much larger buy orders than you, hence on a pro rata you would not get as much as them.. They do not get to decide who they sell it to or buy it from.. There is one exception to this, if the selling broker is the same as the buying broker the stock will cross, cutting the other bidders out. For OTC none of the above rules apply...


(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:11 - ID#390337)
Gold Backing - Here is your damned paper, now gimme BACK my GOLD!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:14 - ID#72206)
Sorry about the ten board lot priority , It's 5000 shares... On 5 cent stocks, I'm not quite sure what priority is,...It may be more but I don't think so..

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:19 - ID#226299)
@the scene
studio -- That spike down in the crude ought to be leading up to the reverse being true quite soon. I think within the next twenty four hours ( if not already ) after perusing my graphics.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:20 - ID#350194)
arby - was it you with the low water levels about a week ago? and if so where was the approximate location?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:21 - ID#373403)
Actually I was thinking of Vronsky but I guess you were cheerleading South African mining stocks too. YTou must be a little paranoid to think everyone is talking about you.

In my book, this Rangy situation shoots both your credibilities. Easy to sit back now and say that we are stupid for not realizing that ADR shares are a suckers bet but you were not saying that several months ago when the great NA/SA debate was raging.

I for one will put your postings in a new perspective.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:24 - ID#252391)
PT UP 6.6 at 359
PT on its high over night at $359 - If PD follows ( or leads ) we could be seeing $300 PD before $300 gold - hope the CB CABAL isn't out to lease any PD

GO PD,PT got my SWC

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:32 - ID#45173)
Right now in Thailand the annual GDP growth rate is -8% and inflation 9%.

Anyone know how gold has been doing in Thai currency during this time? Are you better off there with dollars or gold?

Imagine the world asking this question and you begin to understand why it is so important to keep the price of gold under control.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:34 - ID#273432)
Here's a good article on gold from James Turk

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:35 - ID#317211)
@ snowball - From the mouth of babes
Tolerant1 & yourself have given this B-Boomer high hopes
that this coming generation has common horse sense. My
generation seems mentally IMP HAIRED.

ALL: Are all orders for physical/numismatic normally taking
4-6 weeks. I think I selected a reputable house, but I'm
starting to wonder. If not, will post said enterprises' name here
hourly till I GET MY GOLD!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:37 - ID#284255)

Sort of fits in with this picture

Japan and Germany face huge millennium problem, says expert

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:38 - ID#249244)
TheMissingLink( from Disney Defence Leaque... )
Dear friend,
You are wrong regarding my brother John.
He did not force you to buy SA shares.
He showed to us what he considers to be
attractive side of SA mines and gold shares.
A decision to follow his advice is an individual
choice of every Kitco brother...I recommend everybody
to drink vodka with pickles but not everybody does...

It is wrong to blame him for troubles with SA shares
and stuff or blame me for kidney problems of vodka
drinkers...You got to use your own brains...

I hope you understand what I'm saying...Best regards.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:46 - ID#72206)
I mentioned it in reference to another post...Muskoka,, about 125 miles North of Toronto..


(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:46 - ID#374235)
(@ Squirell re y2k trade essentials)
Everybody says have gold, guns, dried food & bullets. Nobody mentions beer, vodka, a nice scotch, etc. No matter what, By 1/15/00, lots of folks are gonna need to tie one on in a bad way! And they'll pay.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:50 - ID#257312)
Gold, sharefin

Gold-- Looks brighter now than it has for a while, eh. This mini-rally was foretold by the slowness and unavailability of Kitco last evening. The price thing at the top of Kitco has been stuck for the last 20 hours, another good sign. Bottom line is, this Gold rally is still on. sharefin-- Here's some ideas for a poll. 1. Which will occur first, Gold $310 or Dow 10,000? 2. Low for Gold between now and Dec. 31, 1998. 3. Will we see $285 Gold before $310 Gold?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 21:58 - ID#119358)
said spike has been removed from my chest, I have resumed somewhat difficult breathing on my power. yup, un-nerving to say the least. certainly scared the crapola outta' o'studio......salud!!! to YA!!! ( gulp )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:00 - ID#432395)

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:07 - ID#257312)
Kitco Goldbug?

On further reflection, maybe there is a bug at Kitco. It's uncanny how the quote system breaks down whenever Gold shoots up a few bucks. This bug could have been here from the getgo of Kitco. It's just that it rarely has had a chance to show itself in the last two years: )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:12 - ID#42114)
Who does this definition remind you of?
"Psychopaths use charm, manipulation,
intimidation, and violence to control
others and satisfy their own selfish needs.
Lacking in conscience and in
feelings for others, they cold-bloodedly take

what they want and do as they
please, violating social norms and
expectations without the slightest guilt or
regret. Although their numbers are small -
perhaps 1% of the population -
psychopaths account for a large proportion of

the serious crime, violence, and
social distress in every society.
Psychopathic depredations affect people in
races, cultures, and ethnic groups, and at
all levels of income and social
status. As many as 15% or 20% of prisoners
are psychopaths; the disorder is
common among drug dealers, spouse and child
abusers, swindlers and con
men, high-pressure salesmen and stock
promoters, gang members,
mercenaries, corrupt politicians, unethical
lawyers and doctors, terrorists, cult
leaders, and black marketeers. In societies
undergoing a chaotic breakdown
( today, for example, in Rwanda, the former
Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union ) ,
psychopaths often emerge as "patriots" and
"saviors." Wrapped in the flag, they
enrich themselves by callously exploiting
cultural or racial tensions and

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:13 - ID#432395)
POG will be over $300, by Friday's close.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:13 - ID#226299)
@the scene
studio -- As a trader, I have to say that I love those 'V' bottoms. Hate to see producers have heart attacks over them though. Just don't sell anything over the period. More than make up for the few days of storage on the next move back up of at least a couple bucks. Always got to pay attention to those support and resistance areas on the charts. But spikes down and through them are an opportunity! The sharper and deeper, the better the faster!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:15 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Pete -- I got as far as 'psychopath' and had to post 'Clinton'. A textbook example bar none.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:22 - ID#434108)
Iraqi defector tells BBC of hidden weapons.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:23 - ID#35757)
A good test of kitkoite prognostication.Perhaps Bart could put up one of those little gadgets and do it properly. In this case there would be little point to voting more than once.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:28 - ID#317211)
@ Bart man re: previous page, "Near live market updates"
Much appreciation for this board, the VERY BEST because of the members
& your own ongoing efforts here most appreciated. But...
"Near Live Market Update" reads no change in Asia/Europe now,
while NY reads spot POG at $294.40 as of 3 hrs. ago.

Gettin' a bit annoying. Is Asia/Europe posting as NY?
NO OFFENSE. Can it be fixed soon?

Is it humble little dislexic me?

(Wed Nov 18 1998 22:31 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

Almost bottoming out.
Time for another upleg???

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:02 - ID#105135)
FSAGX & FDPMX Gold Channel
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Well defined Gold Channel

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:14 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
New Angle...A Best Case Scenario ( Long )
Michelle has a reasonable concern. Is this a big hoax?
I have the same concern, even though I know that the major companies in the world would not be paying out $600 Billion for a hoax. Period.

I also know that a whole lot of people are not being forthcoming about Y2K. And some are most certainly lying about it.

But, let's take their promises at face value. I want to believe what they tell me for the purposes of my assessment.
This is a BEST CASE scenario, and I do not personally believe in it. I just hope this is the worst it will get, and we do not lose large numbers of lives.

This is not intended as a prophecy, it is merely a least consequences scenario to help put Y2K into perspective.

If almost nothing happens, how serious is it?

It probably has nothing to do with reality. It is merely my hopeful view. You will note that "nothing happens" is not in my wildest dreams.Enjoy this. I spent a little time thinking and writing about it, and it may help you order your thoughts a little. Chuck
A minor miracle occurs over the next 12 months. Work increases, productivity increases, Y2K remediation efforts are more or less successful. Everything the companies are saying about being ready really happens. ( this is not very likely, but it is possible ) .

However, small business never wakes up and fixes their problems.

And, the Government really doesn't have a chance t begin with, but some of the most critical systems will really work ( like Social Security and Welfare payments ) .

"Writing the checks" is the only major problem in the Federal payments system as the FMS systems in New Orleans don't make the cut. We know the answers, but we can't issue payments by computer.

The grid stays up, but loses 10% - 20% of generation capacity. ( this is my greatest concern, as this could cause the most havoc ) We have outages, and people lose their freezer contents, but not much worse than a tornado or hurricane for a whole bunch of people ) . Power is re-routed to the priority locations. Hospitals, police stations, and governmental buildings. Why? FEMA says so, that's why. They are now in charge, for the duration of the emergency. We do have an emergency, you see. Even if EVERYTHING works, because of mounting fear that it will not work. So, BigBrother steps in to the cheers of most.

This ( along with a Bank Holiday ) prevents bank runs.

The various small companies that supply many major companies around the US realize they have no computer support and back up to the best they can do manually. This they find is quite more difficult than they imagined and backlogged orders and purchases build up.

The nukes ( power plants nor missiles ) don't blow.

We rock along with insufficient juice, but enough power for emergency rooms and other "emergency" support. Some nukes work. Some are shut down. Hospitals continue with missing equipment and missing medications. Why are they missing medicine? The small businesses that provide the transport/brokerage/retail/wholesale are down. See below. The suppliers of the major institutions are broken because they did NOTHING to avoid Y2K. ( fact as of this moment )

The Federal government hires every single welfare recipient et al. to hand write checks for social security and welfare payments. The other Federal systems just don't work. We don't even miss them. Riots don't spread because everyone is busy trying to help with the problem. Government employees for the first time in their lives start fearing the loss of their jobs, unless they are writing checks or collecting revenue. ( this is Pollyana'ish I know, but this is a possible scenario ) .

The planes do not fall from the sky. The planes can fly, but a shortage of critical parts and components from small business suppliers is crippling. People and Insurance companies are scared of the airlines. Why? An air traffic control failure causes two major accidents at two separate airports. Airports are put into "go slow" mode.

All of this slows the movement ( velocity ) of money and the productivity of these little mom-and-pop shops, and the larger companies who depend on their services. This represents a huge portion of the economy of the US.

Just-in-time warehousing turns into "just too late" to keep the lines moving. Major factories close for lack of parts.

Over 25% of small businesses go bankrupt in the first two months. 50% by the end of the year. Some of these people are hired by the government to keep books. Others start marches in the streets demanding Federal assistance, too. All of these outfits have about 20 employees, and they are out of work, too. No riots. FEMA is successful at distributing food to the worst cases.

Fast food joints start closing by the thousands. Nobody can make change without the automated POS cash register. Remedial education programs spring up to teach our children how to make change. ( this is only partially an attempt at humor, they really can't count change ) .

Gas stations pump gas by hand, if they have been rationed on power. Over 90% of the refineries work just fine, and the trucks and pipelines have been fixed to run without the PLCs. We have diesel and gasoline! Yeehaw. Life as we knew it looks viable. We can go to the store. But the store contents are less than 1/10 of what they used to be.

Oh, there are things on the shelves. But not nearly the cornucopia of a month before. And shortages abound. Toilet paper prices rise to exceed the value of the dollar, per sheet. Dollars are quickly used to replace missing toilet paper. Plenty of baking soda but no bread. Plenty of toilet bowl cleaners, but no soap.

The banks remain open, after a short Bank Holiday to sort out who will be allowed to open and who will not. They will invoke the Bank Secrecy Act provisions. You may deposit any amount in checks you want, but you may withdraw only $500 maximum per deposit. ( Already on the books, people. )

Not all the banks will survive, but some will, backed by promises from the FED. People do not start runs on the banks. ( I do not believe this, it is just a "best possible outcome". ) The banks find a more manual means to cash checks and make loans. Some of the banks go under within the first six months. Why? Because the Y2K fixes they made do not work as advertised. Over 5% of the major banks systems are broken almost beyond repair.

No problem, we create a Federal Agency to handle the distribution of funds. The depression deepens. But, even though the FED is pumping money into the economy like made, Inflation does not occur. Paradoxically, as the excess cash is still insufficient to meet the M1 and M2 money demands that cannot be met by computerized credit, the money is absorbed and no inflation results. International cash transfers completely dry up.

But, the ATM machines work! Yeehaw.

The credit card systems at some locations work. Electronic credit lives!! But the damage to the economy is still extremely devastating. Remember: You can't eat silver nor gold. You sure can't eat cash. The huge flywheel of the economy has taken a huge braking. It begins to slow. Why? Because our economy is brittle and cannot absorb slow downs as large as we are about to face without "recessing". If the debt reduction that follows is steep enough, we will depress.

The overall economy slows by a little more than 20% and layoffs begin in earnest, pending a return to "normal" business, which occurs much more slowly than anyone expected. The last Great Depression had an overall positive growth rate of 2.2% over the first 10 years. We will have a negative growth rate of 15% - 20% for two years. Overall for the next 10 years our growth rate will remain negative.

Every family loses at least one income. At least one person in two parent familires loses their jobs. Families begin falling into poverty. The nations debt becomes too great to maintain, and the US government starts talking about default. International trade falls faster.

The nation falls into a major recession, depending on if you keep your job or not. If you lose your job, then it is a depression for you. The unemployment rate rises to 28%.

International trade falls 40% ( maybe as much as 75% ) and more people lose their jobs.

We spiral into a debt-reduction deflationary depression within three years. It will take us seven to twelve years to pull ourselves out of this level of poverty. The world we knew will be gone for many years, but we will survive.

The US defaults on its debts, leaving millions of Americans without pension funds. Social Security collapses under the load.

Remember: This is not a prophecy, this is the BEST CASE scenario. Based on losing small businesses and keeping power for all. Even if nothing ugly like global war or invasion or bank runs or panic or riots in the streets occur. If those happen, this scenario continues but the bloodshed increases.

In Texas, riots might last a week. After that, order will have been restored by the citizens ( with or without police approval. ) This is because there are 4 guns for every man woman and child in this state, and the citizens know how to use them.

Order is paramount here. We will not tolerate disorder. Looters will die and order will be restored. God will sort out the details.

We return to a more agrarian existence. Poverty reigns, a new government is born ( which we will probably like much less than this one ) and life goes on.

This is my best guess and my most hopeful scenario. It could be much worse, though. Much. Prepare yourselves.
Buy shovels. Buy grain to eat. Prepare for much worse than I just related. And it is the best case, as far as I can tell.

Chuck :- )

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:16 - ID#284255)
Issue #33 November 17, 1998

Tonight we will go through the Leonid meteor shower. Scientists tell us that this one will not match the 1966 shower, nor will it match the one a year and a day from now. But we will probably lose a few major satellites. Any company that has insured satellites has just entered a higher-risk period.

Astronomy is a precise science. It can predict events such as this one with remarkable accuracy. The astronomers do not know how intense this shower will be, but they know for certain that tonight will be the highest density night. Some think it will be a bump in the highway, but others think it could be worse for our satellites. This reminds me of y2k forecasts.

I shall go out tonight to see the shooting stars. I was on top of a hill in a desert area in 1966, lying on the trunk of a car, looking up. I did not know about the Leonids. I just happened to be in the right place to see them. The shooting stars came every few minutes. Never in history had there been so many -- and records of the Leonids go back to the tenth century. I'll never forget it. I'll never forget y2k, either.

There are millions of people who know that y2k is coming. They will put this out of their minds until the last minute. They will pay no attention until events force themselves on men's perception. Then they will say, "Why didn't anyone tell me?" There are several answers: ( 1 ) the watchmen did not believe the evidence; ( 2 ) risks to the reputations of watchmen are high and rewards are few; ( 3 ) almost no one would have listened anyway.

Let me give another example. I have mentioned in
"Remnant Review," but not on my Web site, since it is not a y2k issue. But it is surely an ignored deadline issue. Brady II goes into effect in just a few days: December 1. From that day forward, U.S. residents will not be able to buy a shotgun or a rifle without registering and paying a fee. Their names will be placed in an FBI computer, even though this is illegal and the authorities know it's illegal. Where is the ACLU? If this law applied only to Blacks, the ACLU would be fighting it. But since it applies to everyone, we hear nothing.

There is a scene in "The Trigger Effect" where the two male characters go into a gun store a few days after the power has been off. So do a lot of others. They are told that they cannot buy handguns. There is a waiting period. But they can buy rifles and shotguns. They buy a shotgun with what little cash they can scrape together.

As of December 1, this scene will be inaccurate. There will be an extra fee and the loss of privacy.

The next step: a prohibition on private gun sales. To sell your gun to your next door neighbor, you will have to take your gun to a gun dealer, who will register the transaction and impose the 5-day waiting period. The President has said that it is his goal to shut down gun shows. I think he will be successful.

Now, I'm not too worried about being in any computer. They will all be dead on 1/1/2000. But what is obvious is that those who dilly-dally now will find themselves competing with people who have cash in 2000. The collapse of the banks over the next 16 months will transfer wealth to the drug dealers on a massive scale. They will have cash, and they will be dealing in consumer goods that will function as money. Drugs are divisible, recognizable to users, have a very high value-to-volume ratio, and are durable.

There is no doubt in my mind that in those

geographical areas where addiction is high, the drug lords will take over the functions of government. They will be armed. They will have money. They are ruthless. And the police will be absent. The inner cities of the United States will become warlord societies within two years.

Do not live anywhere near one of these areas. The criminals and addicts will fan out to extract wealth from contiguous areas. The police will be hard-pressed to respond. It will take time for martial law to be imposed, and in most places, there will not be any military presence. Neighborhood defense will be based increasingly on what local residents can muster. If the locals are disarmed, then they will be sitting ducks.

Neighborhoods will set up roadblocks with cars. The two-car family will become a one-car family. The number- one defensive measure a neighborhood can take is a roadblock. Criminals will have to get into a neighborhood on foot. They will have to get out the same way.

Easy transportation will disappear in 2000. Urban life will move to a crawl. On that day, you had better have your water, your food, your non-hybrid seeds, and your ammunition.

Nobody else talks like this. The watchmen are in the
"peace, peace" mode. That's easy talk in the days before the shooting starts. The function of the watchman in the Old Testament was military. He warned of an invading army. That's what I'm doing. The army has already invaded the central cities. It is well armed, well organized, and ruthless. It will move outward in 2000.

Rent "The Friendly Persuasion." It's a great movie. Pay close attention to the pacifism of the Quaker men in the weeks before the Confederates invaded and the
militarism on the day before. Talk of peace is cheap before the shooting starts.

What I am saying is obvious, but it is not politically correct. Today's watchmen are afraid of politically liberal media reporters who might say, "These people recommend buying guns! Oh, woe! Oh, horrors!" I pay no attention. When I think of any reporter, I think: "Dead man typing." He will have no job, no career, no pension, and no readers in 15 months. He will be at the mercy of those around him.

The mentality of the typical reporter is that of the wife on "the Trigger Effect." A liberal to the core, she wanted no part of a shotgun. The movie centers around her ideology and the costs that it imposed. It was not a good movie, but it surely did portray her in a bad light, which was well deserved.

The clock is ticking. Brady II is coming. And millions of people will walk into a Wal-Mart SuperCenter next month and through all of next year and wonder: "Why didn't someone tell me I would have to register this transaction?" ( See the three reasons, above. )

The shock of recognition that rifle-buyers will have in the next few months will be paralleled in 1999 on an international scale. "What do you mean, I can't get cash out of this bank?" "What do you mean, you're out of solar panels?" ( ) "What do you mean, I can't buy an inverter?" "What do you mean, I can't get delivery of a diesel generator?" "What do you mean, you don't have any deep cycle golf cart batteries?" "What do you mean I can't get delivery of a wood burning stove?"

In 2000, it will be food, water, and electricity. But there will be no seller to complain to. To complain, you have to be able to speak to someone. You won't be able to.

Let's start with the basics: water. An urban adult uses 75 to 100 gallons of water a day. This doesn't count watering the lawn. In 2000, how many people will be under your roof? Remember, your children may show up on your doorstep, with wives and children. Families will pull together for survival in 2000. Estimate the number of people under your roof in 2000. Now, how much water will you need per day?

What if the municipal water authority shuts down? It's goodbye showers. Goodbye flushing toilets. Hello sponge baths and thunder mugs. I don't think the reality of the power cut-off will hit most families until someone says,
"Mom, the toilet won't flush." Then the realization will dawn at last. A new, unpleasant world has arrived.

Disease will begin to spread by the end of the week.

Every time you take a shower, think of 2000. Every time you flush a toilet, think of 2000. Ask yourself: How will I do this in 2000?

People will not do this. No, not even those who have read my warnings for two years. They will not go through the mental exercise of planning ahead for the basics -- and water is near the top of any list of basics, right below heat in the winter.

There are millions of people who live in high-rise apartments today. There will be fewer in February, 2000.

Let's assume that for the first three months in 2000, you will not get paid. The banks will be down. You will not be able to write a check or use a credit card. What will you do?

What will your neighbors do?

What if it's a year?

If it's a year, it could be a decade.

What will you do? What is your exit strategy?

Have you and your spouse sat down with pencil and paper and written down your family's exit strategy? No? Why not? It's not that I haven't nagged you.

What of your adult children? Which ones will be able to make it through three months of no paychecks? Of those that can't, how many will wind up on your doorstep in late
1999? Or will you wind up on theirs?

Should you head for the hills? Wrong question. What solid evidence do you have that you shouldn't?

Should you stay where you are? What items will you need in your possession in 2000 and 2001 to make your decision to stay put a wise one for you and all of your closest relatives, who will show up on your doorstep if they know that you have prepared? That is to say, have you prepared for every close family member who will be in trouble in 2000? No? Why not?

The clock is ticking.
Let me give a simple example. How will you wash clothes for everyone? Let's assume that you have water. ( Dreamer! ) You can buy a 40-lb. tub of Wind Fresh laundry detergent from Sam's Club for $10. It will do 160 loads. For one person, that's a year of washing. What if you have
10 people under your roof? You will need 10 tubs for just one year. But this product may not be readily available in
2001. You had better buy 20 tubs. I'll bet you don't have
20 tubs, even though you can afford $200. You lack the storage space. More important, 20 tubs of detergent point to all the other things you will need under conditions that would mandate 20 tubs of detergent. So, people refuse to buy enough detergent.

Now, what about your neighbors? They will be dirty. Their clothes will be dirty. You will be clean. You will not have lost 30 pounds. You will be the target of envy on a scale you can barely imagine today. You will be despised. Will you be ready for this psychologically?

Of course, you can warn your neighbors now. They will not prepare, but they will remember.

There will be a stream of beggars at your door from
2000 onward. You may know their names. "Please, please, we're desperate." It won't be a lie.

When a society loses the division of labor, it loses just about everything that the urban "good life" requires. If you keep even a fraction of these things -- clean clothes, for instance -- you will be resented. Envy is a powerful force. "He doesn't deserve it. It's not right that he should have so much. No one should have so much."

Here is a piece of information you may not have. Sam's Club offers a special service. It has a 50-page notebook with all of its products listed, with order numbers. Go to the manager and ask for a copy. Take it home. Make a shopping list. You can order everything at one time. Rent a U-Haul or borrow a pick-up truck and pick up everything.

The average adult consumes 1000 lbs of food for a year. Half should be vegetables. You can grow them. Buy non-hybrid seeds. ( ) Half can be grains. You can buy 200 lbs of white rice at Sam's Club for under $60. The same for pinto beans.

In terms of food, $300 will feed you for a year. You'll hate the taste by mid-2000, but you'll eat. How many of you will spend a whole $300 on food? Not many. Why not? Because if they might need this much food, they'll need water, and they know they can't get enough water in 2000. They would have to move, or put in four
1,500-gallon cisterns and gutters, or buy a swimming pool. They won't do it.

My suggestion: rent "The Trigger Effect." Then make up your mind about where you should live in 2000.

For those who want a public presentation, which can be used to persuade people who have not read much about y2k, my Harrison, Arkansas y2k town meeting tape is effective. You can see representatives of the public utilities and a local bank deal with y2k. The question and answer session is especially useful. It sells for $39.95: call 903-839-8822.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:20 - ID#367411)
@jim Re Pd
Hi Jim!

Pd is roaring here in Japan....limit up....

I put a buy out to see if I can get any.....we'll see......

Good luck with SWC....see you at $300 Pd.


(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:28 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- And gold will be thrown into the streets. Hey, who knows. Maybe, anymore, it IS just heavy dirt! Certainly under that scenario you posted. And it is a given that, in and of itself, it cannot be eaten. Not too many fuel sources and food storage out there that will last years!!!

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:29 - ID#227290)
Here's a new Kitco poll for everyone.
What will cost more by the end of the year. . .

A. One Mc Donald's Big Mac Value Meal ( super sized )
B. One barrel of Oil

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:49 - ID#24135)
.. in a different light ?? ..
Herr link ..
How about total darkness ?? i.e.,
You can put my postings where
the sun dont shine .. The mine
I have recommended buying is
Harmony .. WHAT have YOU
recommended that has performed
better ??? Please reply .. I
dont seem to recall YOU recommending
anything .. am I wrong ??

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:53 - ID#247309)
Przytula - add C. 25 shares of RANGY.
All the real stupid guys holding ADRs will think its RANGY.

John Disney
(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:54 - ID#24135)
.. wait a minute ..
herr link ..

You said

" Easy to sit back now and say that we
are stupid for not realizing that ADR shares are a
suckers bet but you were not saying that several
months ago when the great NA/SA debate was
raging. "

Pretty dumb to say THAT .. since the item
I quoted was from a posting I made SEVERAL
MONTHS AGO .. try reading more comprehensively.

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:55 - ID#284255)
Shame on you.
It will never be plain dirt.

I expect if Y2k is bad for it to go to the moon.

Imagine how much gold will be produced if oil stops flowing?
1 or 2 tons per year.

And with demand going higher?

Now go and do some penance for such blasphemy. ^o-o^

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:57 - ID#284255)

(Wed Nov 18 1998 23:59 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- I've always stated here that gold will be more useful in picking up the 'pieces', as bartering is a royal pain in the ass. I don't know if it will really go far in the interim between now and 13.5 months from now. Then, if it does, should one sell it for paper, or keep it for later. Always questions and more questions.