Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:04 - ID#286230)
While I still have some eyesight left is there- amongst all the 1000's of links on and leading from your page-- 1 comprehensive checklist of possible preparations to take. I recall Squirrel posted a list of food and similar items some months ago but it seems to be lost in the archives.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:06 - ID#284255)
Many U.S. banks raise estimates for Year-2000 adjustment costs

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:22 - ID#284255)
Perhaps it was this one.

A good way to search all the links is to use your browser find function.
If you were to do a search on "contingency" on either of these pages you'd come up with lots of links.


That last link I posted on bank Y2k costs shows costs rising by 10% - 40+% in the last three months.

So they are finding much more to deal with.
And need more resources over an ever decreasing time frame.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:23 - ID#220325)
Arby: Thanks for the explanation
This explains what has happened. I wish that my broker was as lucid as you are. I still think that the system stinks in that the trader reaps multi commissions by ditributing the orders among numerous bidders and I as the first person ordering does not get filled. I will check to see the amounts they are bidding tomorrow.

I appreciate your help as I was about to contact the Securtities and Exchange Commission in Vancouver BC.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:33 - ID#286230)
Thanks. Your page is one monumental piece of work.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:35 - ID#333126)
@sharefin - re: swing charts
you mention that your swing charts seem to have bottomed but your webapge ( ) seems to have only the update from a couple of days ago. have you an updated chart?

one more thing - if your chart takes this long to download from Sydney, ... hmm ... how long do the US kitcoites take to download your charts? hehehe...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:38 - ID#252391)
Thanks for the info on PD - limit up?? What does that equate to in good old American dollars - is it $6??? I want to see PD above gold and then above Plat, then little 25 million share capitalization Stillwater will start flying around like an internet stock. Talk about rational exhuberance.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:45 - ID#284255)
For a long term perspective on where gold is going I tend to view Mike Sheller's comments with favour.
Perhaps gold may spike up in 2000.
But I feel that the real growth of value in gold will take many years to accrue.
If property values decline over a 7 year period, and gold slowly rises.
Then I would expect the value of gold will not peak untill then.

How much it moves will depend upon societal changes.
Will Y2k be minor or downright nasty?
Population densities and movements.
There are so many unforeseeable changes coming.

But overall I'd expect Mike's time frame to be the one to consider.
There might be some quick money to be made.
But the long haul should be the best one.

And I don't consider mining companies to be the vechile to invest in.
Many could fail come Y2k.

There is nothing like physical gold.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:45 - ID#25490)
ANOTHER, in an occasional series of blasphemy & goldbuggery......
your Date: Wed Nov 18 1998 17:50
kiwi ( Gold Dancer.... What is 15% backing? ) ID#194311:
Copyright  1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't buy this crap.

All currencies are 100% gold backed, it's just the amount of goods your currency
will buy that varies, normally going down due to usurious actions of moneyed
elite in banks and pulling gov. strings.
Is sooo cool. This is absolutely correct. As long as paper can buy gold, then, all currencies are gold backed. All that changes ( ? ) is the labour to earn one, the number of its zeros, and the faces of its heroes.

This is the main reason, so goes an argument, like that proposed by Jacques Riboud, that there will never be a return to a gold standard nor a gold-exchange standard.

As long as paper buys gold, we have a floating gold-exchange standard and therefore do not need an inflexible gold standard.

Interesting argument...

Spanner in the works

incoming bloatfish

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:47 - ID#203137)
298.10 in Europe. Looks like 302 today and maybe 306 tommorow.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:49 - ID#227290)
I was under the impression that Palladium did not have a daily limit. Last May and July each had moves of $50.00 -- in one day.

( wow )

I believe that Platinum has a daily limit of $20.00.

Got to be impressed with the big move in Palladium though. Maybe it's a glimpse of things to come for the other metals.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:50 - ID#333126)
poll of Asian executives on Y2k issues

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:53 - ID#333126)
japan -- next move up or down?

show us the money :- )

With a large volume of yen rolling around the system, banks--especially foreign ones--are anxious to park it somewhere to avoid the cost of maintaining the notes in their vaults or of having them processed for deposit with the central bank. The safest bet is government securities--even if they pay nothing. Hence the demand for short-term, liquid sovereign paper. While this tells us that no one wants to hold yen, the reason may be divined from another set of numbers.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:56 - ID#227290)
Hmm, where are you getting your spot gold prices? I'm seeing only a .40 gain right now.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 00:59 - ID#203137)
If you go to the site listed below it's almost online quotes from Germany

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:01 - ID#203137)
Well was 298.10 now 297.8

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:04 - ID#227290)
Says access is forbidden. = (

Do know why the European spot price does not correlate to the current CRB price?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:07 - ID#226299)
@the scene
ravenfire -- Soon, the governments will have to be the buyer of last resort of goods and services to keep the businesses open and employing people, paying taxes and debt service.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:10 - ID#284255)
It does help if I download the graphic.
It's up there now thanks.
As for the download times - well even I can't get into my pages sometimes.
Perhaps I need a mirror site in the USA.
My alternative energy page is just about to clock 20,000 hits and it's not that old.

Received and enjoyed immensly.
Perhaps you should upgrade. ( ;- ) ) )

It's a pleasure.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:10 - ID#203137)

Have no idea about the correlation of pricing, but usually find these quotes quite accurate. Also can't understand why you cannot connect.
The site is called Quoteline GMBH it's a free service updating every minute. Try again, I had no problem when accessing from the Kitco site I posted.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:17 - ID#267298)
Save this Y2K Post
I am an ex-mainframe computer programmer. I do have some
understanding of the potential for Y2K problems. During the late 60s,
the 70s and 80s I wrote and modified many computer programs that
utilise a two digit year date. Up until just a few months ago, I, like many
others, thought Y2K was going to be a major problem. I no longer think
so, my thoughts on this subject have changed dramatically. Without getting into all the technical crap as to why I have come to this conclusion I will just say this.

As 1999 progresses I may again change my opinion on this subject, but, I believe 99 will tell the tale. In other words, if Y2K is anywhere near as problematic as many think, then the problems will begin to appear in 1999, we wont have to wait until year 2000 to make an accurate assessment.

All IMHO, Off to bed

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:18 - ID#227290)
Nope, still not letting me in. Oh well, I believe you. I always assumed that the CRB price reflected overnight prices.

Does your sight have a price for Platinum? CRB has it up $5.60.

Thanks in advance.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:18 - ID#290202)
............Re your 20:27.....In that "Day", what will you do with your gold,
sell for: electronic credits, dollars, buy land & goods, or...hold???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:19 - ID#290202)
............Re your 20:27.....In that "Day", what will you do with your gold,
sell for: electronic credits, dollars, buy land & goods, or...hold???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:21 - ID#284255)
Big brother and YOUR bank account - email chatter

Dear Friends:

I have just finished analyzing a 29 page document obtained from a
U. S. Congressman who, for the moment and at his request must remain

The document is a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC )
document and is entitled "Minimum Security Devices and Procedures and
Bank Secrecy Act Compliance."

To set the tone for the following discussion let me remind you that
since January 1992, the Federal Government has set its sights on
establishing federal controls over EVERY ASPECT of every individual
Americans personal life and liberties. For example;

1. The federal government has established "PROFILES" for various
so-called criminally inclined personalities. Now as one travels
about the country, especially in air ports, the government spies
look you over and if you happen to resemble one of those criminally
inclined personality profiles, in appearance, conduct or mannerisms,
YOU are taken into police custody and then you are required to prove
that you are indeed not a criminal or even a potential criminal.

2. Even our school children are now being "profiled" so that the
federal government can identify those children who, in the opinion of
certain government agents, require psychological evaluation and
subsequent psychological treatment ( reprogramming ) in order to
instill in that child "government standards of behavior" to prevent
that child from committing criminal acts later in life ( so they
think ) .

3. NOW --- NOW the Federal Government, working through the FDIC,

The following is direct quote from the first page of FDIC document
( 6174-01 ) ( 12 CFR Part 326 ) Notice of proposed rulemaking.

"SUMMARY: The FDIC is proposing to issue a regulation requiring
insured nonmember banks to adopt and maintain "Know Your Customer"
programs. As proposed, the regulation would require each nonmember
bank to develop a program designed to determine the identity of its
customers; determine its customers' sources of funds; determine the
normal and expected transactions of its customers; monitor account
activity for transactions that are inconsistent with those normal and
expected transactions; and report any transactions of its customers
that are determined to be suspicious, in accordance with the FDIC's
existing suspicious activity reporting regulation. ---"

The things to be very concerned about in this case are the PROFILE
PARAMETERS that in turn define the various limits that when exceed,
qualify as an exception to the norm and thus must be reported to
another federal agency, as a suspicious transaction. There is
virtually no limit to the number or type of profile parameters that
can be established. For example, is the customer an 8 foot tall white
male weighing in excess of 400 pounds or is the customer a four foot
tall black female weighing less than 90 pounds. The question or
questions ( and there are many questions ) then becomes, who will be
responsible for establishing, defining and controlling the limitless
number of possible profile parameters? Who will be responsible for
adding, changing and delating established profile parameters? Who
will be responsible for insuring that this awesome and massive
capability will not be misused and abused by the various departments
of the Federal Government. In other words, is the 8 foot tall white
male an exception to the norm or is the 4 foot tall black female the
exception or, are both the upper limit and the lower limit considered
as an exception to the norm. How about all those in between?

As noted in the quoted SUMMARY of the document identified above, the
"key operative statements" are as follows;

1. Identify its customers.
2. Determine its customers' source of funds.
3. Determine the normal and expected transactions of its customers.
4. Monitor account activity for transactions that are inconsistent
with those normal and expected transactions.
5. Report any transactions of its customers that are determined to
be suspicious ---.

Before we briefly examine the five individual requirements noted
above, and so that you will understand where"I" am coming from,
please be aware of the fact that, in addition to being a Baptist
Preacher, I have been a Data Processing Systems Analyst for some 48+
years. At least half of that time was spent working for the Federal
Government, designing and installing total Data Processing
Facilities, from the Presidents Battle Staff, to the Congress, to the
Department of defense, to the local Church name and address data
base. I have written and taught several college courses; ( a )
Management of Data Processing Facilities and ( b ) Systems Analysis.
One of the first things that I always tell the new students in my
Systems Analysis class is "In the field of electronic data
processing, your only limitation is you own imagination. If you can
rationalize it in your mind, 'electronic' data processing can do it."

Now, given that background and qualifications let me tell you, in no
uncertain terms, -- I know exactly what the Federal Government is up
to. I know exactly what information they are looking for; I know
exactly how to get that information and I know exactly how they plan
to eventually use that information.

Requirement # 1: Identify its customers. I have no problem with this
requirement so long as that identifying information is limited to
name, mailing address and an account number generated by the "local"
financial institution and assigned to a particular account to provide
unique identification, but absolutely nothing more.

Requirement # 2: Determine its customers' source of funds. This I
have a BIG problem with. Even though the government would like for
you to believe that this requirement is related to identifying
"possible" illegal money laundering by drug traffickers, that is not
the only reason they want to know the source of your finances.
Remember now, the ultimate objective of the vast majority of
government regulations and programs are directed at controlling the
"individual." This item required that you advise the bank of all the
sources that you will be receiving money from that you will be
depositing in this particular account. We will expand this item in
more detail below.

Requirement # 3. Determine the normal and expected transactions of
its customers. For purposed of this discussion we will consider only
four primary parameters related to deposits and withdrawals against
this particular account.

First: When you established a new checking account you will be
required to identify the number of deposits you expect to make each
month and the average amount of each deposit. For example
( a ) military retirement pay = $2,000.00, ( b ) Social Security Income =
$400.00, ( c ) Rent from income property = $750.00, ( d ) Interest from
stocks & bonds = $ 300.00, and so on.

Second: You will be required to identify the number of withdrawals
you expect to make each month from this account and the estimated
amount of each withdrawal. For example; ( a ) Mortgage payment = $
800.00, ( b ) Car Payment = $250.00, ( c ) College tuition = $ 1,000.00 ) .

Once the average number of deposits and the average amount of each
deposit has been determined and the average number of withdrawals and
the average amount of each withdrawal has been established, it will
be very easy to identify all transactions, in and out, that exceed
the established norms for this particular account. For example
should you find a paper bag on the side of the highway containing
10,000 well used one dollar bills, or Aunt Sue passed away and left
you 10,000 well used one dollar bills and you deposited that windfall
in your checking or savings account, that would immediately be
detected as exceeding the established norms for your account.

Requirement # 4. Monitor account activity for transactions that are
inconsistent with those normal and expected transactions. This
requirement establishees the requirement that each financial
institution establish a procedure to monitor your financial accounts
on a regular basis for any transactions that exceed the established
norms as illustrated above.

Requirement # 5. Report any transactions of its customers that are
determined to be suspicious ---. This requirement requires that all
financial institutions immediately report any and all suspicious
transactions detected as a result of deposits or withdrawals that
exceed the establshed norms for your account.

As I was reviewing the aforementioned FDIC document, as quoted above,
I called a long time friend of mine who is vice president of a local
bank that I do business with. I ask my vice president friend to
identify the government agency ( s ) to which he would report such a
suspicious transaction. His response was, the IRS and the FBI, at
the national level.

My friends, as a long time ADP/EDP Systems Analyst I want you to pay
particular attention to the following.

Whenever a good and successful Information ( Data ) Processing Systems
Analyst designs a large scale information processing system, such as
what we have been talking about above, he will ALWAYS allow for
future expansion of "existing" applications and processing
capabilities and his design work will also allow for "additional"
applications and processing capabilities to be added with a minimum
of additional effort and cost.

Based on my 48+ plus years in the business, let me tell you what you
can expect in the very near future if the proposed "rulemaking"
provisions as defined in the FDIC document identified above
are allowed to be implemented. Please, read the following very
carefully because it lays out the route our government is taking
toward a cashless society as required by the design of a one world
government under the United Nations.

1. PRESENTLY ALL recipients of military retirement pay MUST have a
bank account into which their monthly retirement pay is
electronically transferred. The government will no longer pay
individual retirees directly, or send their retirement pay to a home
address. This is part of an over all plan to extended more absolute
control over the individual. It has absolutely nothing to do with
economy as the government would have you to believe.

2. In the very near future look for legislation that will "require"
ALL government employees, federal, state and local, to have a bank
account into which their salary will also be electronically
transferred, just like the retired military. In as much as most
government employees already have the direct deposit option
available, it requires only vary simple legislation to complete this
phase of the plan.

3. Next you will see legislation that will outlaw the direct payment
of all wages or salaries to any individual, by an employer. All
employees who work for a wage or salary, will also be required to
have a bank account into which the employer will be required to
direct deposit their salary. And once again the legislation
necessary to accomplish phase of the plan is very simple and easy to
implement, simply because most business would welcome the reduced
payroll cost.

The governments objective here is to eventually make the local
financial institution the only source of legal tender for the
individual. At this point and for the purpose of this paper, legal
tender is defined as dollars, debit cards or other credit cards.
When objectives 2 & 3 above have been fully accomplished, it will
then be a very simple matter to implement the rest of the plan.
Let me explain it this way. The total plan equates to $1.00 ( One
dollar ) When steps 2 & 3 have been fully implemented, as step 1 has
already been accomplished, that will equate to $ .95 cents of that
$1.00. The rest of the plan equates to only 5 cents out of that one

And just what is the rest of the plan? It's very simple.

After steps 1, 2 and 3 as noted above have been fully implemented,
the only thing left to do then would be to outlaw all cash
transactions and require all transactions now involving cash, be
accomplished through the use of checks or smart cards followed by the
eventual elimination of the checks.

At that point the federal government can then trace, track AND
CONTROL ALL TRANSACTIONS, simply because all transactions will then
be processed by massive computer systems controlled by the federal
government. Given the above accomplishments and current
electronic capabilities, the ability to exercise absolute control
over "individuals" provided by the additional five cents noted above
are absolutely mind boggling.

There are many, many more reasons that all Americans should and must
oppose implementation of the five ( 5 ) requirements identified above.

There are TWO things that every American should do, immediately.

First: All Americans should send a letter to the FDIC expressing
their STRONG objection and opposition to the plan to PROFILE
individual bank accounts for what ever purpose. The FDIC will be
accepting public comments until December 27. Send your comments to:

Robert E. Feldman, Executive Secretary
Attention: Comments/OES, FDIC
550 17th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20429

Be sure to include the following information at the top of your
FDIC 12 CFR 326
Minimum Security Devices and Procedures and Bank Secrecy Act
Notice of proposed rulemaking

Second: All Americans should immediately destroy ALL debit cards and
credit cards and revert to using cash ( dollars ) in all business
transactions instead of checks, debit cards and credit cards.

Please forward this alert to the maximum extent possible.

Rev. "Curt" Tomlin
Major USA Ret
President TCAN Inc.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:23 - ID#203137)

Strange you can't connect??? Yes all PM's are quoted. Yes PT up 5.6

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:31 - ID#284255)
Interesting Asian poll.
Seems they all think that other companies aren't aware in the first graph.
But then in the last graph they all think their own companies are aware.

A bit contradictory.

Those words you quoted, are very similiar to what Greenspan has posted???

Did you go to school together. ( :- ) ) )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:41 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Savage -- I can guaran-damn-ty that it won't be electronic divits, nor paper. Beyond that, have to wait and see.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:45 - ID#226299)
@the scene
sharefin -- Kinda' like the polls on politicians in general. People simply hate other congressmen for the most part but love their own. What a concept. Given that, I'd say that most or none of the companies will be ready. Masses are always wrong.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:46 - ID#267298)
Jeezus Sharefin,

"Those words you quoted" I'm isulted, I didn't quote, I wrote,

I gave my honest opinon be it right or wrong and as far as
going to school with Greenie, shit, I got a grade 12 edukation
at a skool in British CLombia Canader. Not in the same leeg
as Greenie...

All the best DBOG

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:46 - ID#350195)
volatility analysis
Could any of you wise souls point me to a site which might:
a. provide formulae for probablilty on price moves based on
-- defined past moves ( bell curve constraints/STDev etc. )
-- optimized period length for a ( semi ) liquid market: AU ; )

basically I'm hoping to formulate a future price probablilty profile for a given commodity - e.g. a histogram of % probability within a set timeframe for range of priced options. and then bracket my bets so as to minimize loss exposure. ( I'll still buy the occasional lotto ticket for the really long shots )


(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:50 - ID#284255)
Please excuse my errant use of the english language.
I erred unforgivably.

I wasn't questioning your opinion.
And I respect you for stating it.

I was just curious as to the words likeness to AG's comments.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:53 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Later all.....

(Thu Nov 19 1998 01:55 - ID#42114)
Sharefin, I'm cofused.
I had a lengthy conversation with an electrical engineer from Ohio Edison today. He told me that the fuss about y2k is all hype and abnormal for utilities. He said that there might be temporary delays of no consequence because the computor systems can be overridden manually if need be and told me to go home and get some rest because the world is not coming to an end. What say? ( like the chicken asking the fox, who's in charge ) ?

Best regards,


Steve in TO
(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:03 - ID#287337)
Sharefin - What was it St. John the apostle wrote . . . ?
"And he provides that no man shall be able to buy or sell unless he has the mark of the Beast . . . "

The world could become a very strange and terrifying place in years to come. All us goldbugs on Kitco could get our sorry butts hauled off to jail for the crime of "gold hoarding" just like in the 1930's and the Kitco site might be banned since it promotes "thought crime!"

- Steve

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:04 - ID#267298)
No offence taken,

I enjoy your post's always and this darned KITCO is addicting.
As I said, I was going to bed but I'm still up enjoying this site as
always. Probably going to sneak one more brew before the wife
gets up and scolds me severely. Anyway, getting sentimental,
feeling like we are brother's of a sort. Yeah, KITCO BROTHERHOOD.
Would enjoy discussing Y2K at greater length another time.

God Bless You and Good Night - DBOG


(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:07 - ID#31868)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulp and a puff skipper...priceless...thank you...
and don't worry about Big Brother...nope...DNA unlocked...I was bred for this and they do not stand a chance...we die not for money, medals or Gods...political beliefs and or philosophies...

We walk hundreds of miles to give the gift of water...even though we be parched...the only make things right...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:16 - ID#25490)
The last millenium was 1558...
Look at past panics. No rhyme, no reason. Just: fear. Fear produces panic.
Sometimes, as I see the fires of confusion, mistrust and panic being fanned over the Y2K event, I wonder whether it really matters whether merka loses all electrical power, or none at all.
In other words the message is the Panic. The event that is awaited/expected is irrelevant to THE MESSAGE OF ARMAGEDDON in the psyche of a boom and bust culture.

This Y2K thing is so deeply embedded in Western Judeo-christian cultures around the globe that, just like the millenium of 1558 when the Spanish Armada was sailing from Cadiz to invade London, and the Londoners, in response to "prophecies" were selling their houses and fleeing to the country, this Y2K is a classic Panic. Those who sell up to flee to the country, who are buying generators, who are scoffing at polyannas, may perhaps wonder how similar is the Y2K panic of today to the UFO panics of the 50's.

I have previously ranted about cargo cults, especially the cult of John Frum. Well, just as a cargo cult is expecting manna from heaven in the great new tomorrow, so too an apocalyptic cult is expecting evil nastiness tomorrow.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds


(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:16 - ID#31868)
Steve In TO, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the Beast is done...there were more than
five elements...long before time started to unwind in the minds of men...the battle will occur at night and dark will run...and try and hide in the blackness...but it will be found and destroyed...the Golden Age will begin...

Not every thing that can be said...should be told...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:31 - ID#31868)
just spoke with Reify...all is well...Israel is still there and doing just fine...
GOOD to hear your voice...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:36 - ID#31868)
chas, and PUBLIC all your emails but cannot send...
will be in touch...Namaste'...gulps and puffs all around...yup...uh huh

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:38 - ID#386245)
BIG surge in the Aussie $$$$$$$$$$
If you Canamerkans had bought Aussie gold shares in the past couple of months, you would have gained on the gold shares and you ( especially Merkans ) also would have gained about 10% or so on the currency. Double dipping, so to speak. Horsetrailyer hasn't YET reduced interest rates, so currency is booming as hot Merkan money shifts to Oz. Be quick or be dead.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:47 - ID#25490)
A horse is a horse, of course, of course....

Your "cannamerkans"----Brabo!

Of course, a horsestralia does have GST on the taxation horizon...Nothing like a GST to put the brakes on consumer spending. IMHO, it is a triumph of ideology over good sense. No nation has managed its way out of recession, especially a deflationary recession, by increasing taxation. Look at Japan, gobmnit issuing "coupons" redeemable in local shops in the hope that when they spend the coupons they might also spend the yen. For Crsus sake, the Japanese are trying the only tested way of beating a deflationary increase spending....and the whorestralian gobmint is gonna tax consumer spending.

Got Olympics?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:48 - ID#386245)
I lay out on the driveway last night from 3:30 to 4:30 AM with the missus watching sparkly things in the sky. About 10 every half hour. Was also hoping that Moroni would descend with more golden tablets. Maybe I'll have to renounce coffee and booze before I am blessed. Hope springs eternal and pigs might fly.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 02:57 - ID#386245)
Yair, mate. I heer that the Nipponese consoomers are stashing their coopons, as the saving habit is so ingrained--they just can't hep themselves. Kinda like dyed in the wool goldbugs who buy useless yeller stuff on a regoolar basis cause they don't like plastic/paper 'money???'. Aussie consoomers are going to spend themselves into oblivion!! I shall be there, waiting, to pick up the scraps ( real estate at 10 cents on the $$$ ) with REAL money!!! Cheers, Nickafeller.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:12 - ID#25490)
Yup, saving Nipponese coupons. Unlike Telecom Cards ( there was a bubble in Telecom plastic cards downunder, and in Germany ( ?Fred? ) a few years ago, now busted, and ANOTHER bubble in what the canamerkans call vanity plates, well, we called them "Investment" plates. Logic? There is only one Number "1" plate. Only one "888" plate. Only one "A1" plate. Ya get the idea. These plates of tin were selling for NZ$700,000+ at the peak. Don't think there's a market anymore.

I remember seeing a couple of coupon books from WW11 London, mind you, the Brits were using coupons for years after the end of that one, eh?

A generation was born and grew up not knowing what a "banana" was.

We don't know how lucky we are.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:17 - ID#386245)
You're speling and grammer leeves sumpthing to be desired!! We must uphold certin standards heer on Kitco, and I can no longer acquiess in the dee-struction of the Queen's English!! Now as a British Culumbian ( and member of the Commonwealth ) , I expect that you'se will uphold higher standards than those you exhibit. You will loose all respekt at this forum if'n you don't improove your English.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:25 - ID#252391)
Let me cut into the chit chat
with the information that the JSE ( South African ) Gold Index is UP yes that is UP 4% - taking out last Friday's highs, surging above its 50 day moving average. All trend indicators on GOOOOOOO.

This move runs counter to the sell off we saw in NY at the close and, if it holds, argues for a higher metal miner share opening.

Gold is around 298.50 in London - not much room left before the CABAL starts full fledge defensive action. You among us will be first over the wall.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:27 - ID#367411)
@jim Re Pd
Hi Jim!

I had a bid out for Pd/yen futures, but no I said, limit up ( 40 yen ) ....

The move was roughly 4%.....judging from the fact that no one wanted to sell to me at that price ( 1045 yen/g for Oct. 99 Pd ) , it is likely that Pd will be up again tomorrow unless the dollar tanks......

Looks like you've got a good chance of seeing Pd surpassing gold....

I'll just have to be happy that the Pt I bought yesterday got pulled up by Pd......

Good luck,


John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:31 - ID#24135)
Snide Remarks ???
For Herr "missing" Link
You remarks in the direction of brother Vronsky are
not warrented .. I believe he recommended 3 stocks ..
Rangy, drooy, and harmony .. towards the end of last
year .. I first started buying Harmony in December
last at and average of $2.25 .. its now $5 plus ..
Drooy was about $1.5 and it now over $3. Rangy was
about $1.25 and has fallen to about $0.80 ..
Over the same period, ABX has risen from about 17
to 22 .. Not bad but nowhere near as good...

Two out of three aint bad .. Where are YOUR
recommendations ??? I dont recall any .. You seem
mainly to want to complain that the suggestions of
others arent making you rich fast enough ..
.. well Im really sorry to here that..

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:32 - ID#386245)
My mother once showed me her ration book from when she was Winnie's secretary in the Admiralty during 'the big one'. She was 'allowed' so much food a week. Eggs were a rarity. It was mostly nondescript flour, sugar, tea etc.

My grandparents nearly starved in the early thirties. My father and aunt were put into an orphanage, so they ate regular anyway. My grandparents stood in line at the soup kitchens. My father talked about the deprivation, only late at night, after a bottle of bourbon.

Our spoiled generation does not know what it means to go without. There are some very rude shocks in store, coming soon, I fear. Can you imagine a big city, anywhere, where commerce comes to a halt???

I sincerely hope nothing comes of these predictions. I prepare for the worst, in the hope that I shall laugh at my paranoia in a year or so. Cheers, Paranoidnick.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:35 - ID#257312)
Starr Wars Update and Market Commentary and Gold Prediction

Word is that Starr will be dealing mostly with Lewinsky case and the attendant charges. No filegate, chinagate, witness intimidation and tampering etc. President probably skates if this is so. Face it folks, they won't touch Clinton as long as the American public is mostly feeling good about the economy. However, it is my humble opinion that, like the Fed rate cut, the market will react little, if at all to this news. It is also my opinion that we are overdue for another big storm, if not hurricane, in the paper markets. Japan was down over 240 points today, the day of Clinton's visit. Prediction--Gold $325 by Dec 31, 1998.

Cage Rattler
(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:35 - ID#33184)
Large US Hedge fund rumored to having to sell 10 bio dem/yen

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:44 - ID#386245)
John Disney
I want a refund on my subscription!! I was 'thinking' about buying some SA shares. It is your fault that I didn't, and am therefore not a squillionaire,yet. Next time you share information with us, you must guarantee its veracity and accuracy, so that we can blame you when we don't make money. I am not responsible for my investment decisions. You are!!! You can send my refund to 'The Blind and Stoopid Believe Everything You Read on Kitco Fund'. If I do not hear from you within 7 ( seven ) days, I shall take legal action. Best Regards. Nick.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:54 - ID#284255)
Avid chatter
oleman... Wed, Nov 18, 8:05AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
pizaman: re your 6:20. Impeachment is moot. A non-starter at this time. Its
history as far as the mkt is concerned. The only thing left to be determined
about the whole matter is the answer to the question I posed here about 6
months ago: Will K. Starr be allowed to escape with only his career and
reputation ruined, or will he go to prison? We should have a good idea by
the time he finishes his testimony today. Perjury trap laid by Hillary's
minions on the committee is well concealed. ............

oleman... Wed, Nov 18, 8:08AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Timely announcement by "Butch" Reno that Starr was under investigation by
the 'Justice' Dept just a few days before his appearance before Barney
Frank's committee. Very timely..........

alice... Wed, Nov 18, 8:14AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
ole, if what you say is true, the putrefaction of our society is complete -

oleman... Wed, Nov 18, 12:23AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hum: best concentrate on the cookin and leave the shorting to the losers.
You think that "Greenie" bar on 10/15 was a doozie, well, just wait till you
see that 100 handle 5 minute bar when they announce that Butch Reno has
indicted Ken Starr,

the_kid... Wed, Nov 18, 12:25AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
whoa, oleman, did that happen or do you think it's gonna happen ( the
indictment that is )

oleman... Wed, Nov 18, 12:28AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
kid: I predicthed it 6 mos ago right here.

oleman... Wed, Nov 18, 12:36AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Repubs now ready to take it to the Dummocrats. New leadership team
represents net reduction of 120 IQ points cf. old team.: )

oleman . . Wed, Nov 18, 10:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
barb: 4 days in a 10 day period that feature INcreased volume AND lower
closes is distribution enough to get a wise man flat.

oleman . . Thu, Nov 19, 0:12AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
dgoto: Concerned about what? That we might have a pullback? As mits says,
"pullbacks are part of life". But this thing's going to new highs, fer sure.
Dont know when or how, but we'll be there before spring. We can go all the
way down to the 1080 area for a visit and do no harm, so long as we go there
before we close above yesterday's high. Gotta pause/pullback sometime. We're
up about 230 handles.

oleman . . Thu, Nov 19, 0:16AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
mud: as Jesse L. said, " you gotta be long in a bull market." Now, if you
think this aint a bull, you should do something else. Course if you have
doubted the bull all along, you've been handed your head on a platter. This
has been a short-killer if I ever saw one. Gotta go. Sleepy. Remember, you
CAN know which direction the 'line of least resistance' is most of the time.
But you gotta look for yourself and not let some big-mouth on the internet
tell you what to think. That includes this big-mouth, too.: ) g'nite.

alice... Wed, Nov 18, 6:50AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
main problem currently being faced by the FED and the banks is what to do
next. If interest rates are lowered again, it may cause rate-sensitive
derivatives to generate extreme losses for the banks. Chase has $2.2
Trillion in derivative exposure that expires in less than one year, JPMorgan
has $1.6 Trillion exposure. In addition, adjusting interest rates will also
affect currency exchange rates. Chase and Citibank each hold $1.4 Trillion
of foreign currency derivatives, and JPMorgan holds $829 Billion, all
expiring in less than one year. If you have ever wanted to witness an
ultra-high stakes situation where the players were literally "between a rock
and a hard place", this has got to be the very best example that you will
ever see. Unfortunately, none of the information will be made public ( if at
all ) until well after the major events have taken place.

samurai... Wed, Nov 18, 7:39AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
bears today are best describe as "bulls who haven;t got what it takes to
ride the circus train up"

pivot... Wed, Nov 18, 7:59AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
One more important fact - 11/25 next Bradley date.

linc... Wed, Nov 18, 8:59AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
J Kramer, on cnbc." You have to buy when the Fed cuts three times. thats
what the book says, i dont mess with the books. i dont want to overthink

rebotco... Wed, Nov 18, 12:16AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
NO ONE cannot call this a blow-off of monumental proportions. The internets
have now given the final signal!! Buyer beware.
dgoto... Wed, Nov 18, 12:17AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
soup... Wed, Nov 18, 12:18AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
rebotco: no question this is the bubble of all bubbles; but as so many have
shown here, very difficult to know when the klinostras will fail.

dgoto... Wed, Nov 18, 12:19AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
The Internet stocks are excess but mean little to the overall market. The
market has always had excess in some sector like gambling stocks, airlines,
gold etc..., the difference is Internet trading, T.V. and hype.

rebotco... Wed, Nov 18, 12:21AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
The internets are the leading edge of the bubble,Dgoto!!

dgoto... Wed, Nov 18, 12:22AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I disagreee, they are a separate bubble.

dgoto... Wed, Nov 18, 3:09PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Considering all of the positive news with Fed rates and expiration this week
volume should be huge and it really is the lightest since the recent bottom.

dgoto . . Wed, Nov 18, 11:35PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I expect the next market shake-up will be maybe in Jan, when Rubin
departs..which I think will happen..

(Thu Nov 19 1998 03:54 - ID#386245)
Twenty bucks to your favourite charity says your timing is off ( 325 on 31/12/98 ) . It is time that people paid for their Kitco predictions!!! Some of our erstwhile members would now be bankrupt!!

Are you on???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:02 - ID#258195)
Wednesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Wednesday 18 Nov calculated from data published in Thursday's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.50---------------4.26-------------3.86-----------------3.53
Gold Lease Rate---0.78---------------1.15-------------1.33-----------------1.56
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.11 ) ------- ( + 0.05 ) ------ ( + 0.05 ) ----------- ( + 0.04 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.00--------------3.30-------------2.40-----------------2.10
Silver Lease Rate---1.28--------------2.11--------------2.79-----------------2.99
( Change ) -------- ( + 0.20 ) -------- ( + 0.05 ) ------- ( + 0.10 ) ---------- ( + 0.15 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:10 - ID#25490)
I got ANOTHER crient.........
Now, my crient, Nick at 3:44 and I are gonna sue you for posting your opinions@kitco, cos we're too stooopid to do our own research and, we never take responsibility for our lives, anyway, it's easier than real work.

lawyers at 20 paces...

The reason there are so many lawyers in the US is because, that's what you deserve. Let's face it. If you didn't need lawyers, there wouldn't be any.

Need Wool Carders? Stop the Industrial Revoluton....
In case that is too obtuse...

Go Ned Ludd..

Cage Rattler
(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:11 - ID#33184)
USDYEN update //// bye bye dollar

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:12 - ID#386245)
Hang on just a minute. What are your fees???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:18 - ID#386245)
About time someone mentioned gold!!!
Dec. gold UP 40 centavos to 298.50.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:18 - ID#25490)
Trust me! I know what I'm doing. Check your email, and email me your cheque.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:20 - ID#257312)
Nick @ Las Vegas

We're on! Rationale for $325 Gold-- The markets will be facing up to the Euro shortly. The jury is still out on this currency which premiers on Jan 01. I believe it represents a big uncertainty that has not been taken into account yet. Gold will benefit this time. If the Euro flies, then US$ falls and Gold REALLY benefits. On the other hand, if a big flight to the US$ takes place, then maybe we could borrow some money from our rich friend, Glenn!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:23 - ID#386245)
I'll bet that that S.A.'an scallywag won't pay up and we'll have to hire ANOTHER lawyer!!! What do they charge down there??? Do they have courts in S.A.???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:30 - ID#25490)
Already sorted out. Have brethren in SA who shall take all necessary steps to ensure we'll never have to think for ourselves again. Like a Social Welfare system without the burden of paying taxes.
What I mean is:
Watch me: follow me: we'll sue 'm and then we'll both be on the gravy-train for life.

Just send me your cheque first. {:-^ )

Got Pyramids?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:32 - ID#386245)
Auric@such a deal!!!
OK--the bet is ON!!!

Gold 325 by the end of trading ( at Fiji ) on 31st Dec., 1998 or YOU pay $$$20 Amerikan smackeroonies to you favourite charity!! I, of course, shall pay Aussie $$$$20 to my favourite charity ( The Fred Hollows Organization--to help with blindness centres in Vietnam and Eritrea ) if I loose ( sorry Kitcoites ) lose--there is a difference!!!.

I ain't just a pretty face!!!

One x $A=.6440 $US. Harr, harr!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:34 - ID#26793)
Situation in Brazil worsens, outlook gloomier

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:36 - ID#386245)
John Disney
I am sending you ( by certified Nigerian cheque ) the sum of one million US dollars. Please double your investments immediately. I shall be in Cape Town soon for champagne celebration. Cheers, Nick.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:37 - ID#25490)
Fred Hollows, ANOTHER fine NZer. His work developing an inexpensive process for removal of cataracts in "the third world" will, one day, be universally recognised as the truly charitable act of a great man.

A worthy cause indeed.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:38 - ID#257312)
Christmas @ Kitco?

It's beginning to look a lot like it. We are discussing Gold and Murr. And Saint Nick is, quite frankly, insensed!

Cage Rattler
(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:50 - ID#33184)
Even more rumors of distressed hedge fund selling doing the rounds

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:53 - ID#386245)
When Fred Hollows died of cancer a coupla years ago, I felt as if one of my own family had passed away. Why does nature strike down a 'living saint' and let villains go on???

Not many on this site will know who Fred Hollows was ( and is ) . Your lives are much the poorer for it.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 04:58 - ID#386245)
Fred Hollows was PURE GOLD.
If YOU don't know whom he was, then shame on you!!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 05:04 - ID#284255)
Spend an hour browsing through this site and wonder about what you were told.

Some companies are faring better than others but generally the latest 10Q reports are not to good.

These couple of comments say a lot.
It's sobering. Not only do we now know that the utilities are in serious trouble but CNN 's report on the Banks 10Q's were just as bad. It seems the PR campaigns of late Oct. & early Nov.were to try and divert attention away from what many of these companies knew would be lousy SEC filings. Were being lied to day and nite it seems. What can the Gov't do fine them? LOL! While it's at it why not fine itself. All we can do now is prepare and try to get our local community leaders to wake up before it's too late. The denial is pathological at this pt.
If you think the utilities and banks recent SEC filings are bad, you should see a lot of the Fortune 500 corporate filings. I've been plowing my way through the ranked list from 1 to 500. The first 30 were enough to make me want to cry, and it didn't get any better from there.

The idea of any major government agency, utility, or corporation getting "complaint" is out the window. Triage is in effect everywhere - critical systems are what the race is centered on. How bad the effects are going to be depends to some extent on whether these entities can exist without much of the bureaucratic structure they are used to; whether only operating with the 10-15% down and dirty, nuts and bolts core systems will be enough. From some of the SEC filings, I doubt even critical systems will be finished in time for some, but they will be for a portion of agencies and corporations.

In my opinion, it's going to be a rough ride, folks. I agree with Glenn, in that personal preparation and pressure on local community leaders to make contingency plans for the safety of their citizens has the best chance of success in the time remaining. State and Federal officials were slow to wake up, but they are aware now. Their choice in the time left is between taking actions which they perceive would panic citizens, and maintaining a calm pressure while crossing their fingers. To their credit, a few Governors are going in the direction of action. Unfortunately ( in my opinion ) and unlike some other countries, our national leaders have already set a precedent in the direction of a "non panic" stance. While I understand their concerns, I just think they underestimate the capacity of citizens to respond to leadership in the direction of preparedness. Then again, elected officials are not superhuman, they are just people like the rest of us, and just as capable of wishful thinking, denial, and "cognitive dissonance" as anybody else.

A leader in good times is nothing special. A leader wise enough to be forward-looking and strong enough to tackle a bad-news scenario is rare. There just aren't many out there at the moment, so the responsibility falls on the individual. I hope in the months to come more leaders will surface to urge preparation. I see some slight movement in that direction. In the meantime, though, it's full steam ahead getting my family ready as much as possible, while doing whatever small things I can to promote awareness of the problem.
Bonnie Camp
Bonnie is spending a lot of time studying the problems.
Her words are worth taking note of.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 05:06 - ID#252391)
1074 yen per gram - what does that translate into oz. How many gramn in an oz. Can't remeber.

European trading has PD at 291.50 off a dollar - if the quote I have can be trusted. Probably see a little lower opening than some continuation of the up move. PT at 356 - as long as it holds there I'll be happy.

South Africans now only up 3.5%. Probably fiqured they were a little far out ahead of the parade.

Notice on the stock market that the summation index of the Mcellan ossilator is about to go negative - I have a sneaky suspicion somthing is going to happen to upset the party either in Russian or Brazil or both. The IMF will not have anymore $$. They will be a rush to safety and the price of gold will benefit.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 05:32 - ID#367411)
@jim re Pd
For futures quotes I like:

It seems to be updated often.......I think the $/oz price of Pd here will reflect the yen price in grams......

Looking good,


(Thu Nov 19 1998 05:47 - ID#252391)
To THC on PD
I think Japan was a case of catch up to the American action. The $292 that comes up on your suggested quote server is, I think, the clsoe in NY. Gold and silver are updated through the overnight action underway now.

I came accross this quote service today here on Kitco which seems to be current

it indicates a little profit taking off the prior NY close.

Dollar is weaker against the yen tonight - have to believe the STARR destimony will cast a cloud over the US Stock market. One more good up day on a weak advance decline and I'm out of the small trading position I have in stocks.

Good luck tomorrow there in Japan.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 05:59 - ID#272282)
Just sending my regards from a strange public terminal in a strange city in this strange country of OZ3R.
Watch Spinifex!
Namaste, master of words. Also watch Spinifex!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 06:01 - ID#248180)
PGM's -
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 18 1998 Financial Times London
Commodities 

METALS: Palladium demand outstrips supply
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent

The automotive and electronics industries are still using much more palladium than can be produced by the main supplier, Russia, according to Johnson Matthey, the world's biggest palladium and platinum marketing group.

Demand from carmakers, who use palladium in anti-pollution catalysts, will in 1998 increase by more than 30 per cent for the seventh consecutive year, it says.

The electronics industry, however, has made further progress towards reducing its reliance on palladium in components for products such as mobile telephones and laptop computers.

Concerned about potential supply shortages and at the more than doubling in price since the beginning of last year, the of industry has been working hard to use nickel instead.

JM says in its interim review that technical obstacles to using nickel in high specification electronic components have now been overcome.

"However, production lines can not readily be adapted to make nickel [components] and, in the present economic climate, manufacturers appear reluctant to spend large sums on constructing new plants."

The review says total demand for palladium, at a record 8.2m troy ounces, will outpace supply, at 7.19m ounces, by more than 1m ounces this year. Since 1994, Russia has sold about 10m ounces from its stocks to keep pace with demand.

Russia does not reveal the level of its palladium stocks. Mike Steel, JM's market research director, says: "It depends on who you believe among the Russians. There could be stocks for another three or four years or there might be enough for only one more year."

JM says demand for palladium from the electronics industry will fall by 190,000 ounces to 2.36m ounces this year as the use of nickel spreads. However, new car emission limits will boost sales to carmakers this year by 1m ounces, to 4.2m ounces.

Meanwhile, Russian palladium supplies are expected to fall slightly, from 4.8m to 4.6m ounces, leaving total supplies down from 7.25m to 7.19m ounces.

Alison Cowley, author of the JM review, says: "Long-term availability of palladium is becoming a concern for the auto industry, and some companies have sought to secure their supplies by entering into contracts with producers. We also believe that carmakers are accumulating stocks of palladium and our forecast for 1998 allows for modest additions to inventories."

The palladium price soared to a record US$417 an ounce in May because bureaucratic bungling prevented any metal being exported for the first six months of the year.

"Russian sales will remain the key influence on the market over the next six months," says Ms Cowley. "We believe Russia's strategy will be to sell palladium at a rate which supports the price between $250 and $300 an ounce. However, another interruption of supplies in the new year cannot be ruled out."

Russia is not so important for platinum, palladium's sister metal. Most platinum is produced in South Africa. JM suggests South Africa will increase its platinum output this year from 3.7m to 3.75m ounces and that total supply will increase from 4.97m to 5.04m ounces.

As palladium is being substituted for platinum in many auto catalysts, total demand for platinum is forecast to fall by 40,000 ounces to 5.13m, leaving a modest supply deficit of 90,000 ounces, down from 200,000 in 1997.

Disruption to Russian supplies sent the platinum price to a peak of $429 an ounce in April but in October it fell to a five-year low of $335 as fears of a worldwide recession hit sentiment.

JM expects platinum to trade between $325 and $375 over the next six months.

Platinum 1998 Interim Review, from Johnson Matthey, 40 Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8EE, England. Free.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 06:05 - ID#343259)
Dabchick Posting Ding-Ding-Ding
No one commenting on Dabchick's 4:02? Holy cow. I thought this was the canary in the mine! Dabchick. Commentary? Isn't the across-the-board hike in lend/lease rates FOR A SINGLE DAY majorly significant? Or am I missing something.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 06:50 - ID#26793)
Dollar down sharply in European morning trading

(Thu Nov 19 1998 06:57 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: @ CompGeek et al: one month lease rates firmed
moderately. Gold is still under 1%, so liquidity is still high.
Silver firmed more. This is slightly more interesting considering
the negative sentiment around here re silver.

We should see a little shorting activity today, but not a lot.
It is becoming very dangerous to operate the gold/silver carry as we
drop interest rates and inflation is pumped. IMHO

(Thu Nov 19 1998 06:58 - ID#31868)
CompGeek, Namaste' gulp and a puff to a word...excellent...
snailmail on the way to ya as I cannot reach you via email...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:09 - ID#254386)
ole man
Does anyone have ole man's latest thoughts on the markets?
What with an AWSJ article about booming gold coin sales, dollar vulnerability, Vronsky's hemline indicator, a strong Aussie and a topping Dow, it's starting to look quite positive for a leap and keep over $300.
Nice move by Pl despite the bearish interpetations of the recent Johnson Matthey Report...
Good trading.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:14 - ID#348169)
Silver (and Gold) still range bound.
Comp Geek and Rhody - Wasn't it a few weeks ago ( last time ) that lease rates went up all of a sudden in Silver and the price was knocked DOWN?
AAR - I really haven't noticed taht sentiment is entirely negative to Silver around here, just cautious. As I ( and others ) have been saying for a few weeks now, Silver is in a very interesting chart pattern. I have been erronously describing it as a tight wedge when someone corrected this yesterday and pointed out that it is properly called a pennant. In fact they said that it had broken out of this pennant to the upside. I do not yet see that on the weekly charts. Perhaps someone can post this example. AAR - the sides of its narrowing upper limits and lower limits are so tight right now that a break-out either way could carry it very quickly up or down $.50. Thus caution - But also Opportunity! Gold still in its box.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:14 - ID#288466)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:17 - ID#367411)
@jim re Pd
Thanks Jim! That's a good were right about the other site.

Re Pd, I wouldn't worry....I think there will be plenty of buying here in Japan tomorrow...althought that's just a GUESS.

Have a nice day,


(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:42 - ID#432223)
Dabchick's 4:02?
First let me say that I have enjoyed reading the commentary at this site over the past several weeks. Thank you Bart and contributors.
However, I have observed that some members of this forum are especially naive as to the methods and motives of central banks and others entities with an interest in selling their gold bullion. In light of the obvious that the price of gold is manipulated by the guardians of currencies and nations' debts, and that CBs are sereptitious about when they're buying and selling, how can anyone assume that lease rates are not manipulated as well?
It is foolish to think that they are not. Lease rates are manipulated for all sorts of reasons. Over the past several years, lease rates were generally high because of several reasons: European CBs were selling gold for EMU requirements, major producers such as Barrick knew this / were hedging, hedge funds were selling, etc. It's pretty simple: It's Feb 1996, you're chairman at Euro CB XYZ, you need to sell x00 tons gold to pay down national debt, you want to hide this, you lease x00 tons gold thus driving up gold lease rate, you dump onto market, you then gradually return gold to lender a year or two later. Or gold producer XYZ wants to hedge, leases gold ( rates go up ) dumps for cash, same with hedge funds, etc. Sometimes CBs can lease gold at 0% if they want too, to bail out hedge funds who have leased gold to short currencies, etc.
In other words, lease rates are much more complicated than some of the posters on this forum realize. If you're waiting for lease rates to rise before going long gold bullion and stocks, you're playing a fools game. I will not go into the many reasons why gold should be accumulated as most assuredly the've been discussed. But I will mention that aside from many of the important baromiters to be watching is the relationship between 30 year T-Bond rates and gold. Gold tracks the percent increase in these rates everytime. Look at comparing the price of gold to the percent increase in 30 yr T-Bond rates and you will discover a NOT so amazing relationship. As of late August of this year, 30 year rates AND Gold have broken out to the upside. The bottom is in for gold, the dollar has peaked, 30 year interest rates have bottomed.
Now is the time to accumulate on dips and ride the gold bull onward and upward.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:44 - ID#341189)
Australian producer buy-backs

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:47 - ID#367411)
@RJ Re Pd & Pt
Hi RJ!

I'm sure you're smiling today.....Pd & Pt are on the move.....

Penny for your thoughts regarding which is the better horse: Pd vs. Pt......the Pd supply/demand situation appears tight........

Thanks in advance,


(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:48 - ID#284255)
Here's the 10Q reports for:

From here
A great SEQ search engine.

They are all about 30% to 50% of they way through spending their budget.
They don't really say too much.
Except that they are confident of becoming compliant next year.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:51 - ID#350194)
Good Morning Repost
This is a classic that should be posted once a week!
Date: Thu Nov 19 1998 03:44
Nick@C ( John Disney ) ID#386245:
I want a refund on my subscription!! I was 'thinking' about buying some SA shares. It is
your fault that I didn't, and am therefore not a squillionaire,yet. Next time you share
information with us, you must guarantee its veracity and accuracy, so that we can blame
you when we don't make money. I am not responsible for my investment decisions.
You are!!! You can send my refund to 'The Blind and Stoopid Believe Everything You
Read on Kitco Fund'. If I do not hear from you within 7 ( seven ) days, I shall take
legal action. Best Regards. Nick.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:54 - ID#35571)
Globex slightly up, bonds mixed, dollar down, Precious metals up - - with silver looking much better, oil up.

Looks like a great day for gold and silver stocks.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 07:56 - ID#350194)
1984 - Coming 20 years Late to a Syate Near YOU!
This 1:21 of Sharefin's is much more serious and deserves a read by all Americans concerned about their individual Freedom. Cannot ever be 'Nuff Said' along these lines. Listen to that bell toll!
Date: Thu Nov 19 1998 01:21
sharefin ( Big brother and YOUR bank account - email chatter ) ID#284255:
just fini ...2591 more words.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:04 - ID#35571)
I agree with your sentiments. Pennants are usually on the top or bottom of a flag pole, so I would still have to think of this as a wedge. I also see no upside breakout. It does look, though as though we have bounced up off of the upward trending wedge support line. Extrapolating the upper and lower lines looks like the apex is somewhere around mid December. It won't be much longer.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:18 - ID#263184)
With spot gold quietly approaching 300 again after holding up well

after the last try at 300, and with the dollar weak today across the board, could this be the day that gold crosses the 300 barrier ( triple top ) and breaks out of its consolidation under 300? With the apparent short position out there, if prices start to move up, it is likely that the move will be swift and not that many will be able to climb aboard.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:20 - ID#35571)
Silver breakout
It looks to me that in order to have a really convincing silver breakout the gold/silver ratio needs to fall to about 58.5 or so. Right now the the GSR is around 59.5

Cage Rattler
(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:21 - ID#33184)
Another hedgehog bidding for 2 billion sterling !

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:30 - ID#333126)
Yahoo! tulipmania

good comments from the Fiendbear today.


anyone noticed how the Yen is up 2% today? wonder if any large funds managers are fainting this time round?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:32 - ID#288466)
Looks like to me like a symmetrical triangle, than either a wedge or a pennant. Nevertheless, it was entered in a bullish direction and should continue in the same direction.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:49 - ID#183109)
For those of you too worried about this ADR topic to make some serious cash, you should carefully read all that Kebble is saying. Congrats to all who loaded up in the recent panic. Already looking rather nice.

IMO, there is no threat of a delisting for at least the next 2 years, and within the next year if not sooner all of RANGY's assets will be listed on U.S. exchanges, thus eliminating the need to "worry". Of course by the time all the assets are listed, you'll be paying $5 or $10 a share for Randgold. A small risk for a huge profit, but if you're really inclined to worry, buy some RNG on the JSE or some Randgold Resources on the London.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 08:54 - ID#367411)
Yeeee haa!!!!!
PGM rockin' hard today!!!

Take it away, Jim!


(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:23 - ID#212197)
The Yen-Dollar-Carry as well as the Gold-Lease-Dollar-Carry..
are done.
What made these carry transactions attractive?
- the difference in interest rate
- the expectance of a raising dollar value, relative to the Yen and relative to gold.

Nothing has been more frustrated than the expectance of a raising dollar, relative to the Yen. Also the expectance of a further falling gold price can not be uphold anymore. The hedge funds and institutions which made this bet have benn tauhgt a hard lesson by the market most recently.

The difference in the interest rates has become less attractive. But what has stpped these carry trades is the immense risk of a further falling dollar.

Therefore, two of the most powerfull finacial tools to keep the gold price depressed are out of the way. This is an extremely bullish condition for gold.

In addition: the EURO connection to gold as discussed here yesterday by Disney and others, plus the expectation of a slow recovery in Japan, which will strengthen the Yen..

shouldn't these fundamentals not finally make a difference for the metals?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:24 - ID#35571)
Silver by the month
Double bottom? Note the large volume increase on the right buttock:

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:25 - ID#35571)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:27 - ID#35571)
Gold coming down for the equity market opening
Big money doesn't want the XAU to get out of hand too quickly.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:29 - ID#350194)
Silver @Gollum and Silverbaron
Thanks. The main thing is that there is definitely a strong containing pattern on the chart and a breakout either way will provide a very profitable move!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:29 - ID#372228)
The volume on the Silver chart is very misleading from only show recent volume and not all displayed prices volume...however...I agree with the double bottom in silver and this rocket called Gollum Rocketways is ready for liftoff!!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:30 - ID#284255)
Catch The Euro Wave

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:39 - ID#413156)
The Pipers of Dawn
Glenn  Great one day call  I never invest in stocks that are out of range Not in my backyard .If I cant walk the property and see the drills forget it. As always buyer beware.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:44 - ID#233379)
Ha-Shalom(current book burning)
Current bill in the Israeli Knesset:

(Thu Nov 19 1998 09:45 - ID#286230)
N Korea vs Iraq

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:09 - ID#25295)
did everyone jump?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:12 - ID#35571)
NEM 22
Gap closed.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:15 - ID#367411)
Pd hits $300!!!!

Cage Rattler
(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:18 - ID#33184)
Nikkei analysis
"For those that are interested, I just finished doing a cursory analysis of the Nikkei for a broker frd of mine and thought some here might want to see it.

Monthly: The 14100-300 area has been tested 3 times since 1992. The lowest was in October 1998 with a low of 12787. The current monthly bar is on its way to closing back above the previous low. A look at the 14 period RSI will show a downward trendline that has formed. A break of this trendline will most likely be the precursor to a long term change of trend.

Weekly: The low at 14488 ( Jan 2, 1998 ) has recently been tested ( low of 12787-- Oct 9, 1998 ) and currently price is rising back towards that level. The 14 period RSI did NOT make a new low with price on Oct 9 and this formation is consistent with a bottoming market. A similar formation occurred in early 1995.

Daily: A shorter term trendline drawn from 16732 ( high of July 17, 1998 ) was broken recently and the 14614 level has been tested on the topside 3 times since then. Price has made 2 consecutive higher lows while testing this resistance level and this implies a break of that level is forthcoming.

Keep an eye on it this one folks. I think this is where the real money will be made over the next 5 years. The returns will quite possible dwarf that of the US market in recent years. This "alternative" will also probably be the last nail in the coffin of the US market as funds and investment houses look for an alternative to the overpriced US market. I wouldn't recommend jumping in with both feet just yet but I would begin to take positions once we see a weekly close above 14300 and then add as consecutive trendlines of different time frames are broken. So stay liquid and stay awake, for some this is where early retirement will be made possible. Good luck all."

Source: XXXXX Forum

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:19 - ID#258427)
CRB at 200.92...(again)
Just about to break 200 JP....

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:26 - ID#258427)
USD down 3 yen...somebody
is sitting on the POG...must be that 1000 pound gorilla again...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:27 - ID#286249)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 178.492 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 297.850 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 177.152 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Nov 1998 ) : 296.500 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0018 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0100 US Dollars

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:30 - ID#339274)
FWIW bought 21 13/16

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:32 - ID#277224)
Received your e-mail of the Gold Newsletter and the
information on Durban.Sounds like it has exciting
potential.But of course nothing is without risk.The Deeps
had excellent volume yesterday, at almost one million shares
traded and it is up 2% today.Thanks again for the multiple
e-mail pages and the advice.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:33 - ID#284255)
Water Utilities Survey Reports Extremely Bad News and Very Good News. How's That Again?

Bios/RTC Compliancy Testing

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:34 - ID#377196)
Re Sharefin's disturbing post of 1:21 last night
Can anyone, including Sharefin, check ( or has anyone checked ) to make sure this is on the up and up. Having been caught a couple of times alerting everyone I knew to something ( such as the freedom of speech thing of a week or so ago and the dead friends of Clinton a month or two ago ) only to find out later it was just a hoax, I'm a bit afraid to send this aorund without being really sure it's legit. Also said friends are now used to getting some scare message from me, only to be followed a day or so later with an egg on face message from me to disregard it - so the crying wolf factor looms on this, and may raise the credibility factor of anything like this I might send them. If it is legit, then for sure we
all should jump on the bandwagon and work to get it stopped.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:36 - ID#270253)
FWIW Long NEM since June 24th. Total profit $0. How can you trade this thing so much??? Perhaps you could share your basic strategy? We all attack this thing from different perspectives.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:44 - ID#333126)
i have seen the end of Yahoo
and it is called NewHoo ( aka. the Open Directory Project )

might be a bit ahead of the curve though. still, the writing is beginning to appear on the wall...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:51 - ID#339274)
Mike Stewart
FWIW volume and volatility is the key,my trading methods
are parallel to futures.Newmont mines has become the best
trading verhicle on the 5min graph.One thousand shares at $14
for a round trade makes it even better than trading futures.
The benefit of this approach will keep you attuned to the market
at all times to safe guard your other investments.
It takes mental preparation and the market is an expensive place to
find out.If you have a loss keep it small and don't be afraid to take profits.: ) Any way back to the market

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:55 - ID#377196)
For anyolne who missed them:
Dabchick's 4:02 and Gambler's 7:42 are both very interesting re lease rates

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:57 - ID#408236)
@ Mooney re. LEASE RATES on silver: I usually focus on one month
lease rates as they are the best indication of pending short attack.
The classical interpretation of a rise in lease rates in silver that
exceeds that of gold, is that silver is more vulnerable to shorting
by speculators. If you combine that with the more than 1 million
oz addition to COMEX stocks this week, I would conclude that silver
is indeed vulnerable to a decline from present levels. It may not
happen, as in the silver river, sticks often drift upstream.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 10:58 - ID#354172)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:00 - ID#245136)
Gambler 7:42 post
Morning: thanks for your interesting observations regardings lease rates/bonds. I enjoy working with Dabchick's data and quite often factor in other variables such as bonds , currency spreads,etc. Resource/commoditiy models can quickly become so complex they become almost meaningless. However it certainly does appear AU's bottom has been experienced during the last 100 trading days. The fundamentals speak for themselves; so what would motivate the movers and shakers to move the pog higher?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:00 - ID#354172)

WHY is gold selling off when the dollar is selling off vs. the yen? I'm starting to give up on gold. Is there any hope?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:01 - ID#35571)
I think it's time for me to go downstairs and hit the bond lever. Let's get this dude rolling.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:01 - ID#354172)

WHY is gold selling off when the dollar is selling off vs. the yen? I'm starting to give up on gold. Is there any hope?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:03 - ID#333126)
you reckon the 2.5% drop ( was 2.8% earlier ) in the Yen is sufficient to set the Japanese to sell off their bonds?

hmm? well, i hope your levers work anyway. :- )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:04 - ID#356379)
Fantasy Land
Is it just me, or have we all been caught up in some kind of time warp disconnected from reality. Go back and look at all the posts since midnight. Most of them reflect great optimism based on several things including the US dollar's big drop against the yen.

So what do we get in the "real" world of the marketplace? Lower bullion prices for both gold and silver, and the PM stocks open lower.

What are we doing wrong? How can we be so far off after literally years of experience and analysis? Is this really a crap shoot? Does it make any difference whether we look at raw data and analyze chart patterns?

Is Kitco a huge disinformation ploy? No offense, Bart. I'm not accusing you of anything. I'm doubting my own judgement and the judgement of many others here whom I respect a lot. Are we pissing in the wind?

Back to the still,


(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:09 - ID#339274)
29700 shares traded at 21 13/16 in one block,good sign

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:09 - ID#288466)
Gold vs. bonds
I have a nice chart on this, that indicates a long term bottom; I would post it here but can't because of copyright restrictions. Anyone interested in a copy - email me at

EZ Believer
(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:10 - ID#173262)
Sharefin's post is not the first I have heard about FDIC snooping
Right now, bank employees can recieve substantial cash rewards
for reporting suspisious transactions. If you are convicted, the bank
employee that smiles and chats with you every day stands to cash
in big. It's just the beginning of the attempt of total control and monitorization of our lives. A wise person will learn and impliment
strategies for privacy in their lives.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:10 - ID#35571)
The yen drop just put some more fire in the hole. We'll hear from that next week.

I think I'll hit the gold lever too while I'm down there.

I'll be back in just a bit.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:17 - ID#153110)
@Mind Control
Exchange is based on perceived value. Defraud the Buyer to get a higher price. Defraud the Seller for a lower. Deception. Mind control. Who wants to affect the perceived value of the thing ? And why ? USG has exchanged green printed paper for real goods and services for decades. What a victory for the Mind Control Specialists, wouldn't you agree ?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:28 - ID#81288)
Goldie [WHY?]
The USD is only weaker against the JPY, it is stronger vs. the DEM, BP, SF, etc. Overall, the Dollar Index ( DX98Z on ) is up.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:30 - ID#343171)
ridgerunner: ditto

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:38 - ID#298259)
Need help...URL for technical charts...
My browser crashed and I lost most of my bookmarks for the past year. My backup disk was also corrupted and I'm not able to restore recent bookmarks. Could anyone provide a URL for free technical charts on major market indicies that loads quickly...I need some historical data.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:44 - ID#35571)
Much "analysis" is based on false premise. There is the idea that gold goes up when stocks go down. Not so. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. There is the idea that gold goes up in times of financial turmoil. Same thing.

Gold DOES respond to inflation/deflation expectations as does bond interest rates.

Many here have a vested interest and high hopes for gold. They tend to accentuate the positive and deemphasize the negative, so one can not expect an overall unbiased assesment. Indeed anyone giving such an unbiased assesment is generally driven out of town covered in tar and feathers.

Still, by taking bias into account, one does gain some pretty good insights here.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:46 - ID#433172)
With enemies like that who needs friends?

silver plate
(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:47 - ID#289466)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:47 - ID#350179)
Frustrated, probably not what you were looking for, but...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:53 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold 22

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:54 - ID#343259)
Lease Rate Info Thanks Rhody, Mooney Gambler
Gambler, I believe the wish to deceive is paramount in these trading exercises ( war exercises, taking positions, defending positions, shoring up positions ) . I think what I as a non-trader is looking for is the early-warning system. Boy it sure isn't the POG or POS. I've given up looking. It all seems derived from other forces. Over the months here, I've looked at JPY vs USD to get a clue, and recently to Lend Lease rates from Dabchick. If not much delta in those rates, I figure, well, not much happening today. So, I'd like to look at the 30 yr T-bond vs gold as you suggest. How would I see that, say on

Another point, not all can move in/out of the market as fast as some here can. 1 ) They need to hear information 2 ) They need to react 3 ) They need to convince spouse of wisdom of such a move ( can be a big slowdown ) 4 ) They need to get liquid 5 ) They need to reach the broker ( Can also be slow ) . So even though the "Smart money" is in, or out, if it is a breakout, the wave, even if convinced won't necessarily show up all at once, or so I believe. Personally, I am already fully long PM's up to my limit. Since I don't know when the rocket will take off, it's better for me to be early than late. If it never takes off, well, an oz could have bought me a suit when I bought it, and it will probably buy me a suit when I sell it. No profit, maybe slight loss, but not severe loss of capital, which I don't think has really crossed the minds of many of those buying at 9000 plus DOW.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:58 - ID#153110)
@CIA and the Media @Understanding Reported Events

Players enter the game. When they are accidented or suicided, new players are recruited.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 11:58 - ID#298259)
Thanks MM and silver plate...
Just what I needed.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:08 - ID#35571)
I went down and gave the levers a little tug, but I see not much happened. I guess I'll have to go back down and tug a little harder.

silver plate
(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:08 - ID#289466)
Don't mean to be nosy but how many shares do you trade on average to make a 3/16th profitable?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:12 - ID#333126)
maybe you tugged the wrong lever in that dark basement of yours?

what has changed is the US$/Yen has come back a little ( now only 1.9% down for the day...hehe )

please try again :- )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:12 - ID#35571)
@silver plate
At $14 a round trip, a hundred shares at $22 a share is breakeven on just a sixteenth of a point. Thats why there are getting to be so many day traders. Brokerage fees are nil and the action is fast.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:13 - ID#339274)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:23 - ID#35571)
@silver plate
Ooops. I miscalculated. A $14 round trip requires only two or three hundred shares ( 224 to be exact ) at any price to break even on a sixteenth point move. The price of a round trip does not vary with the number of shares for most net brokers.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:23 - ID#372228)
If you really want to feel bad....listen to this
Yahoo is now above $197/shr and has a market cap of some $19 billion...and has posted earnings of ( $.18 ) I guess we just have to wait until NEM starts posting bigger losses per share! Right????

silver plate
(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:32 - ID#289466)
Gollum - Cyclist
Tnx for info. 1000 is my cup of tea, but have a longer horizon of several days. Still trade the old fashion way with discount broker but toying with the idea of net broker with lower commish.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:32 - ID#316256)
Round Trip
I have a dumb question, what does round trip mean? Thanks in advance.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:40 - ID#339274)
Bought 21 3/4

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:42 - ID#373403)
John Disney:Stock recomendations
You make it seem like there is some shame in a person not posting their stock recomendations yet making commentary on others who do. This is not a forum, first off, for talking about individual stocks. I contribute plenty towards the global macroeconomic trends affecting the direction of gold.

You people who do feel the need to be stock mavens by recomending individual stocks and then praising your own analysis later down the road should not be so thin skinned when someone points out that your recomendations were bad.

I have never invested based solely on anyones advise on this forum and I blame no one when my investments underperform as you seem to be suggesting. I just wanted to point out that the weighting I give your postings has dropped considerably.

That you consider yourself as a self appointed expert in these matters and I do not agree does not mean that my opinion is sour grapes for following your advise. I did not buy Rangy solely on your advise, I also read through all the information I could find on the internet. I am also not planning to sell now as I see great potential down the road for this stock. What I did not realize however was the shifty way business is conducted with ADR's and I will think twice before buying in again.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:46 - ID#35571)
The total cost of brokerage fees to buy and then sell a position.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:55 - ID#284255)
Sorry but I can't authenticate the report.
It was emailed to me.
But it's the second one I've come across in the last few weeks on the same theme.
I'm sure more will come out soon if it's based on facts.


You'll find many charting packages on these two pages.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 12:57 - ID#284255)
A 2% perspective
What I like about Candace's list is that we don't all think exactly the same. And no, I'm not some melting pot theorist who thinks we should pour all of our ideas into the pot and come out with mush.

Candace believes, virtually 100%, that society as we know it will fall apart and stay that way for a decade. Others are 20% sure that will happen. Others 60%. I have friends who range from 2% to 100%.

And where am I? 2%. I think we're going to have some problems, overcome them, and things will be back to normal within a few months. I believe many business will go bankrupt, others will flourish, and a year after the clock turns over, we'll look back and just have a few funny stories to tell. I believe that power will be affected, but only short, regional failures.

But, the important question, I believe, is this. Whether you believe the odds of MAJOR problems occuring are 2%, 60% or 100%, how does this affect your preparations? I don't believe it does, or at least, it shouldn't. For example, if a frantic neighbor came to your door and said that a gang of convicts with guns were headed your way, and they had stated that they were going to kill 2%, or 60% or 100% of the people in your neighborhood, would your response be any different? I don't think so. You'd grab your family and get out of there. Or, you'd dig in, hide, and prepare to defend your family.

It's the same thing with Y2K. Whether you believe the odds are 2, 60 or 100%, the CONSEQUENCES of the worst case scenario occuring are all the same - death to those who did not adequately prepare. Responsible people do not ignore even a 2% probability of death. And similarly, a 2% probability of
death does not imply that you should prepare yourself 2%. Once the probability rises into the realm of the understandable, you prepare 100%.

I see only one difference between the 2%'ers and the 100%ers. Being a 2%'er, I am storing food, water, survival gear, multiple ways to heat, multiple ways to obtain or purify water, and multiple fuels. I am stocking up food, paper supplies, batteries, barterable items, ammunition, survival gear, etc. I probably have a ton of canned goods, a ton of dried/dehydrated foods, 8 tons of oak firewood, extra fuel oil, propane, gasoline and kerosene. I have many ways to make fire - vacuume-sealed matches, bic lighters, a flint lighter, a gas grill igniter and a magnesium shavings fire starter. I also have a butane torch for making minor repairs. Two generators, 12 replacement spark plugs, 12 oil changes, first aid kit, vitamins, a couple hundred rolls of toilet paper, a year's supply of femining hygiene products, spices, salt, alcohol, camp stove, several portable heat sources, etc., etc., etc.

The only difference between Candace, a 100%er, and me, a 2%er, is that if I were 100% sure that society was going to collapse, I would quit my job and move to the most desolate location I could find. I would liquidate 100% of my assets and buy gold, silver, cash and barter items, rather than liquidating only 10%. I would learn a trade, rather than continuing in my current line of work ( a y2K manager in information systems! ) .

So, we can argue all we want about what the odds are, but does it really matter? Kevin, Candace, everybody else......we're all in this together. We're all trying to solve the same problem. This is why it is so important to have meaningful dialogue on this site. Thanks for setting up the discussion group, Candace.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:06 - ID#288466)
See my 11:09. I think the information you seek is in what I can send you.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:25 - ID#35571)
NEM is starting to move a little
Must be anticipating the clearing of shorts before the close.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:26 - ID#377196)
I just posted this on another site to explain 15% gold backing
Gold Dancer ( 11/19/98; 11:25:57MDT - Msg ID:1038 )
100 EURO
Friend of Another: your have said in only a different way what I posted
here yesterday. The free market is going to
determine the price of gold and thereby reprice all other
commodities and therefore stocks, bonds, currencies etc.
The 100 EURO is merely the measure, or will be the measure
for all things. It represents 100% of a whole. The amount
of gold to be in the coin has not been decided and won't be
until gold is repriced. But what the 100 Euro can buy has
been set= a 100 paper Euro=a basket of goods. So the end result is that
gold regains all it has lost over the past 30 years which
includes interest payments on paper money.
On another chat site people kept saying that they did not
understand a 15% gold backing for a currency. I ask what is
go hard about understanding the following: Right now US
goverment debts are "I owe you nothings". This means that if
you have a $10,000 Bond and the government goes bankrupt
they will pay you off in $10,000 worth of currency. THis
curency will be worth nothing, hence the term " I owe you nothing". A
15% gold backing means the following: In the
event of default the government will pay you back 15% of
the face value of the bond in gold AT THE THEN CURRENT PRICE
OF GOLD. We can assume that the price of gold in the advent
of default would be at least $6000 per oz. Therefore the
govenment would be obligated to pay you $1500 in gold or
1/4 oz per $10,000 bond. That is what 15% gold backing means
to me. And you can see why the govenment does so well under
this plan. I mean they only paid $20 an ounce for the stuff!
The most important aspect to this whole discussion is what
I mentioned yesterday also. The free market is going to set the price of
gold and the governments are not going to stand
in the way of a rising gold price because they no longer have any
incentive to do so. Also, letting the price of
gold rise to whatever level it has to will prevent a worst
case senario of deflation and TOTAL debt default. We will have an across
the board reevaluation of the debt which will
be "fair to everyone". Of course, those of us who have gold
will be winners, taxed winners but winners just the same.
This is all my opinion but it is the simple way I understand what some
are trying to make very complicated.
Of course we don't know what the price of gold will be!!
The market has yet to price anything in accordance to its
true value. We have 3 years to get this done. This is the
best of all worlds because we now have a deadline for the
reevaluation to take place: Jan 2002. May I suggest to
those interested that to have your money exposed to overprice stocks
during this time frame is the height of
denial as to what is going on in the world of finance. The
only stocks to have are those that are involved in REAL assets which are
at depressed prices: Oil, gold, silver,Nickle, coper, zinc, uranium etc.
IMHO only, Gold Dancer

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:33 - ID#288466)
Gold Dancer
My understanding is that the EURO is not gold backed. The 15% gold represents 15% of currency reserves held as gold.

John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:39 - ID#24135)
Herr Link ..
.. please dont attach ANY weighting
to my postings .. that is almost
exactly the weighting I attach to
yours .. and I see no point in
discussing any of this crap with
you any longer .. good bye ..

John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:40 - ID#24135)
Herr Link ..
.. please dont attach ANY weighting
to my postings .. that is almost
exactly the weighting I attach to
yours .. and I see no point in
discussing any of this crap with
you any longer .. good bye ..

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:44 - ID#339274)
pop NEM
FWIW big blocks are crossing the floor 20000& 10000

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:46 - ID#288466)
EURO gold....from the World Gold Council

8 July 1998
ECB to hold 15% of its initial reserves as gold

"Following its earlier announcement on June 9, the ECB decided at the second meeting of its Governing Council on July 7 that it would call 39.46bn Euro ( approximately $43.5bn ) of gold and foreign exchange reserves from national central banks of participating countries. 15% of this will be in gold. Announcing these decisions the ECB president, Wim Duisenberg, said that the percentage of gold to be transferred had "no implications for the consolidated gold holdings of the European System of Central Banks". He also confirmed that the ECB Governing Council would, before the end of this year, "adopt an ECB guideline... which will subject all operations in foreign exchange assets remaining with the national central banks, including gold to approval by the European Central Bank".

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:46 - ID#244242)
RE: The Sharefin Post of Early This Morning....
RE:Date: Thu Nov 19 1998 01:21
sharefin ( Big brother and YOUR bank account - email chatter ) ID#284255:

I talked with two people, one an attorney who was very courteous and helpful ( Jamey Basham ) at the FDIC. He did confirm the existence of the "Know Your Customer" Document as did a lower-level employee I talked to before him. I will be calling back on Monday and will get further confirmation from the attorney directly handling the matter. Yup, I would say this is for real kids. By the way, Mr. Basham said that the IRS and FBI reporting requirements were already in place as part of the currency transaction reporting rules-and these rules don't just apply to banks folks! Nossir!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:46 - ID#316256)
I'm doing something wrong. Last time I bought or sold 1000 shares of NEM Fidelity hit me for a $100. Now I hear that your cost is $7.50. I gotta move some money to your broker. Will they take pre-tax money?

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:47 - ID#242214)

There's a bigger difference between a 2%er and a 100%er.

I'm only stocking up on food and cash to last for 3-4 months. : )

I'm sure not buying a generator, storing gasoline ( but I did buy
two bicycles : ) ) , or rewiring my house to run on 12v. :0

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:50 - ID#35571)
The moment of truth approaches...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:51 - ID#293423)
@Sharefin Correct Numbers?
Read your post. Seems like I remember seeing something else about this on the net also. I noticed the numbers at top of article were ( 6174-01 ) and at the bottom they were ( 6374-01 ) Are both of these correct or am I missing something? If you could clear this up I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:52 - ID#339274)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 13:57 - ID#298259)
Check out Fidelity's new web trading rates...$14.95 to $25.00 per 1000 shares...depending on qulifications...$25 max rate per 1000 shares.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:02 - ID#244242)
The first set of numbers ( 6174-01: This is the number I gave them, NOT the one from the bottom. ) didn't seem to be as much help for those I talked to as the second set ( 12 CFR Part 326 ) and also giving them the title. I the discrepency is due to a typo on the preacher's part. I hope this helps.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:02 - ID#339274)
Like a shooting star,gold to follow : )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:04 - ID#339274)
on green

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:04 - ID#230216)
Nick @ fin that shares.........
those two links say it all.........AGULP to ya.....and of course.......APUFF too..........go golf ( ! ) ... watch CrystalBalled aol puts take a right beating.......ouch : (


(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:05 - ID#31868)
Good grief, spoke to the fin that shares, chas, Reify, but I missed Sheller, but he has
stealth...who knew...get ready folks...a coin born at Kitco will be available soon...yup...barking with some of the Big Dogs...ya wants coins...this we can do...

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:07 - ID#242214)
Sharefin & Big Brother

Dang, where have you guys been? Two years ago, Uncle Sam passed the
"expatriate" act as a rider to another bill.

Anyone with over $500K in assets can no longer get it out of the
U.S. without paying a 50% penalty.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:08 - ID#244242)
Sorry for MY typo. The second-to-last sentence should have read: "I think the discrepency is due to a typo on the preacher's part."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:08 - ID#31868)
EB, Namaste' gulp and a puff to mochine ate your email address...
email me at go gold and and all that stuff...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:12 - ID#93127)
Salome Dancing
Why ( 1 ) Platinum hasn't acted the way it 'ought' ( 2 ) the world isn't as it seems...and ( 3 ) we're lifting veils...

3p Plat Euro
Date by Month October 1998
Date,,,,Day,,,XPT:XEU|XEU:USD|XPT:USD|3P Euro Plat
10/26/98 Mon,,284.935|1.192,,|339.500|339.785
10/27/98 Tue,,290.491|1.185,,|344.000|344.290
10/28/98 Wed,,285.426|1.192,,|340.000|340.228
10/29/98 Thu,,283.613|1.194,,|338.350|338.606
10/30/98 Fri,,282.784|1.190,,|336.400|336.654
10/31/98 Sat,,283.496|1.186,,|336.000|336.198

Date by Month November 1998
Date,,,,Day,,XPT:XEU|XEU:USD|XPT:USD|3P Euro Plat
11/1/98 Sun,,282.222|1.192,,|336.000|336.437
11/2/98 Mon,,284.034|1.191..|338.000|338.284
11/3/98 Tue,,288.738|1.182,,|341.000|341.259
11/4/98 Wed,,293.968|1.178,,|346.000|346.324
11/5/98 Thu,,294.334|1.182,,|347.550|347.844
11/6/98 Fri,,290.211|1.183,,|343.000|343.262
11/7/98 Sat,,291.312|1.175,,|342.000|342.146
11/8/98 Sun,,291.312|1.175,,|342.000|342.146
11/9/98 Mon,,289.397|1.172,,|339.000|339.289
Thursday, November 19, 1998 Page 4 of 4

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:17 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold NEM 22 3/16,onthe sideline

Richard Burke
(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:18 - ID#413269)
Dec Gold
Dec gold has bounced up off its 200 day MA earlier and did so again a few minutes ago. Good sign, I hope.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:21 - ID#93127)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 178.492 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 297.850 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 177.615 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 296.350 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0018 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0100 US Dollars

Richard Burke
(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:22 - ID#413269)
Cyclist - where did you get a sell signal on the 5 min NEM chart - mine says keep going?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:23 - ID#430221)
@ Jed - Many thanks for undertaking to research Sharefin's post.
Very much appreciated. I'll look forward to hearing what your friend tells you Monday or whenver you find stuff out.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:23 - ID#339274)
Time decay
I use time decay factor

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:26 - ID#45173)
Does anyone know where I can find a history of Fed rate changes since 1913? I'd like to plot these against the DOW. Thx, y'all.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:33 - ID#350179)
EJ - maybe here?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:34 - ID#194311)
Hmmm...I wonder
who's so desperate that they're throwing away gold at this price?

They must have picked it cheap a long time ago.....obviously didn't work all that hard for it.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:34 - ID#293423)
Thanks. I thought that it might be a typo. Sounds like it is a done deal according to Who Cares? Not to worry as I don't have 500k in assets to get out of the country.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:34 - ID#287186)
Response to Sharefins question at 04:28
Most electric generation systems are not good for the long haul if the rest of the infrastructure collapses and replacement parts, repair skills, and batteries are unavailable and fuel is rationed to essential services. Im assuming a year or more of no energy utilities - perhaps several years in some areas. Most alternative electrical supply systems depend on batteries that die in a few years, tens of thousand gallons of fuel, lots of moving parts such as generators and other assumptions that may not be valid in a long term global depression/anarchy.

Evaluate every use of electricity you have and how you can convert it to non-electric or do without it. What are left are life-giving essentials that need electricity. There are not many of them.

Most lighting can be done with Solar - as in windows that let in light - veeerrryyy high tech!
Most other lighting can be done with oil lamps which provide heat on long, cold, dark, winter nights. The other three seasons have adequate hours of daylight. A hundred gallons of kerosene will last a year in such use. Dietz RR lanterns or a handcrank flashlight will do for portable light.

Electric heating of homes, water, food, etc. can easily be done with wood which forever grows in the neighborhood. If you have no wood or other local renewable energy source - consider moving.

Refrigeration - there is the tried and true ice blocks and sawdust. For sunnier, hotter climes there are solar systems as well as propane - if you have a big enough tank.

Electric fans can be replaced with natural convection, open windows and ventilation holes in ceiling to let warm air from a wood heated first floor go upstairs - as in grandmas house ( again very high tech! )

Electric pumps - as in deep submersibles in 400 foot wells. Time to find a spring or set up a solar system that fills a tank when the sun shines ( no reliance on batteries ) . Another tried and true solution is a windmill that pumps when the wind blows. Wowser - novel idea!

Most power tools have hand driven equivalents. Better for the heart and general fitness. But there are some where a flywheel coupled to pedals would provide smoother power.

Now to my favorite, har har, partners in the paper chase - copiers, printers, & faxes. Again they can be supply driven - save jobs to print when you have power. The old dot-matrix will be the most reliable - just keep re-inking the ribbon. Some inkjets may be okay if we have enough ink stockpiled, especially if we can mix our own ( anybody figure that out? ) .

Television - nuff said. Hand cranked radio instead. Same for all other electronic entertainment. Books will suffice. Maybe folks will learn to talk to each other. Instead of a phone call maybe a personal visit over tea and homemade cookies. Envision the revolution in the family where mom & dad and the kids sit around talking to each other. This will be a scary prospect for some!

Computers and electronic assisted calculating machines. Again put off use until the sun shines or the wind blows. Better during the latter when smart critters hole up or sit by the fire. When the sun shines we should be out gardening or foraging, or hunting, or fishing or just sitting on a rock contemplating where we are going from here and how - without the noise of electronic pests.

Yes we still need electricity, but with a philosophy along the lines of the above lifestyle changes we will need much less. Anybody have suggestions for a 500 watt generator - just a little put put - not a 5000 watt behemoth which gobbles fuel even when idling along under a 10% load. Even the little put put will sometimes idle under a load of 100 watts - enough for a computer.

The best electric generation arrangement would be several systems: wind for stormy days, solar for sunny days, hydro for quiet nights, and for backup or heavy loads a multifuel engine/generator that can be tuned to run on most anything from biogas to propane to gasoline and maybe even diesel, jet fuel or whatever you can get your hands on. Beggars cant be choosy.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:35 - ID#45173)
These debt trader dudes sure talk some obtuse lingo
I can understand these two points, tho:




Wednesday, November 18, 1998

"Both the Sixty and the Hondo cathected timely upcrosses in the nick of time, thus avoiding the more dour outcome alluded to yestreen. Although bonds will now enjoy a certain buoyancy as these two Stos join the Daily upcycle, an objective of 129^00-129^16 will be imposed, cumbered by the negatively positioned Weekly and Monthly. 3 bearish gaps remain open. ( See Hondo chart with full download of StoMaster . ) The Daily executed an upcross on 11/10 in completion of its "picture perfect" bullish divergence at "A-B". Note that at long last, the Daily appears to have finally ignited its upcycle and workout of bullish divergence at "A-B", without the pain of succumbing to a daunting 2nd bullish divergence as limned on 11/18. 3 bearish gaps remain open. To repeat StoMaster's hortative, REMEMBER: THE MARKET HAS NOT EVOLVED SO FAR AS TO REPEAL CORRECTIONS. ( see StoMaster  for download of all charts and narrative - see additional instructions below. ) The Weekly dominoed behind the Daily to a downcross on 10/08, punctuating the coup de grace of its upcycle endgame. That downcross was memorialized on 10/09 and now is official. This is the 6th week in a 12-16 week average Weekly downcycle; therefore, REREAD "STRATEGY NOTES ON THE WEEKLY" ) . The Monthly has downcrossed three times and upcrossed twice ( the 1st downcross occurred on 10/09/98 ) . These multiple, intra-period recrosses are not unusual for topping formations and will ultimately result in interring the secular bull market begun 06/97. StoMasters objective for the bond was a minimum 125^00 by July-Sept 98, a level exceeded on 08/21 with a high of 126^09. The high for the cycle was marked at 135^08. A memorializing downcross is a shoe-in for 11/30. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCKING THE MOST ATTRACTIVE RATE HAS REOPENED ON A QUIRK OF INTERNATIONAL INSTABILITY ( this written in 09/97 ) AND CONTINUES TODAY. CARPE DIEM! See The BottomLine for full narrative."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:41 - ID#237299)
EJ: Historical Fed Rates
Go to:

Other Resources:

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:43 - ID#237299)
EJ: second link failed, try again

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:56 - ID#339274)
FWIW Plat is screaming to buy,Back in as I left it 22 3/16

(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:57 - ID#350179)
I shoulda invested in
Palladium ( at least it's over $300/oz ; )

Aragorn III
(Thu Nov 19 1998 14:58 - ID#212323)
OK folks, you heard the man...(2nd to last paragraph)...FEMA's advice to you.
Statement For The Record by Lacy Suiter, Executive Associate Director Response And Recovery Directorate Federal Emergency Management Agency
before the Special Committee On The Y2K Technology Problem United States Senate.

( an excerpt... )

A Y2K technology problem will create two sets of needs. The first
includes technological support to the owner/operator of the disrupted
system, such as advice on technical work-around options, and repair or
replacement of disrupted hardware, software, or networks. The Federal
Response Plan is not designed to meet this need. This is the job of
information technology professionals in each owner/operator
organization, public and private, to address through internal business
continuity plans, with the assistance of the President's Council on Y2K
Conversion. The second set of needs includes emergency assistance to
State and local governments, to enable them to continue to perform
essential community services, such as issuing emergency warnings,
disseminating public health and safety information, carrying out health
and safety measures, reducing immediate threats to public health and
safety, providing temporary housing assistance, and distributing
medicine, food, and other goods to meet basic human needs.

Our primary operational objective will be, in accordance with the Robert
T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance ( Stafford ) Act, to
respond to physical consequences on lives, property, and public health
and safety. It is difficult to imagine a Y2K scenario that would trigger
widespread physical consequences that threaten lives and property.
However, a Y2K scenario could cause scattered disruptions in critical
systems such as traffic control, communications, or power, which would
complicate local, State and Federal efforts to provide disaster
response. I am particularly concerned about rural areas in northern and
western states in December and January, which is severe winter storm
season. Our operations concept will be to activate monitoring operations
through the critical conversion period here in Washington and in our
regional operations centers, and to request information technology
liaisons with access to FEMA internal and interagency sources of
technology support. We may not be able to respond to requests for
technology support, but we can use the Federal response system to
provide a backup network to ensure that such requests from State and
local governments are referred to the appropriate public/private
coordination channels that have been established through the efforts of
the President's Council on Y2K Conversion.

The Y2K technology problem involves several dimensions and touches upon
nearly every aspect of day-to-day business in the world. The efforts of
emergency management and fire service organizations cannot be viewed as
a substitute for personal responsibility and personal preparedness.

Every organization and every individual, in public and private life, has
an obligation to learn more about this problem and their vulnerability,
so that they may take appropriate action to prevent a problem before it

As elected leaders, you also play an important role in
increasing public awareness and promoting personal initiative through a
range of activities, such as this hearing. We in FEMA respect your
concern and your commitment to this issue. At the same time, FEMA is
working with the emergency management and fire services communities to
raise awareness, to increase preparedness, and to stand ready to provide
Federal response assistance to State and local governments, if required.
We will keep you informed on our progress as the countdown to the new
millenium continues.

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:02 - ID#242214)
Expatriate Act / Transaction Tracking is GOOD for GOLD!

For anyone in the U.S. with over $500K in assets, who might be thinking
about leaving this country before the financial Iron Curtain comes
down... it's too late by two years. I strongly recommend doing a
net search on "Expatriate Act" or contact your Congressmen. It was
passed very quietly as a rider to, I think, that Health Care bill in

Besides, y'all haven't thought this out. If Uncle Sam does suceed
in creating a mondo electronic currency system that tracks all
inputs and outputs, and then does away with cash... that should
GOOD for GOLD! At least, for physical gold. : )

It could become the currency of choice for drug dealers, Mafia
moguls, our President's payoffs to battered women, all kinds of

And one benefit of a electroFed system - Uncle Sam can just slice
off whatever amount he happens to need as the money passed through
the system. BEFORE it gets to YOU!

No more income tax! No more Deficit! No more tax lawyers!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:03 - ID#288466)
Jed - were you looking for 12 CFR 326?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:05 - ID#266105)

18 central bank rate reductions in October, 13 so far in
November. Seems they had a look into the abyss of deflation,
terror incognito, and elected for the prettier, more familiar
face ie the Helium Reserve. Tiny bubbles...

Friedman and Krugman represent a wide range of economush
viewpoints, some would say the poles, disagreeing on most
everything. But they do agree on one thing, that given a
floating rate fiat currency system deflation is not likely
an issue because there is no theoretical limit to the printing
of money.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:07 - ID#288466)
Who Cares?
And ANOTHER more fractional reserve banking for 'bout ZERO reserve banking ! No more bank runs...create as much money as you more FDIC.

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:07 - ID#242214)

In a theoretical perfect, free market, there would be no major
fluctations because all information about everything would be
available to all people, and no one person can alter the price of
that market, regardless of their decision to buy or sell.

Unfortunately, we don't have perfect information OR free markets.

We have oligopic markets controlled by corporate and government
entities, but so many people seem to believe otherwise. It's quite
sad to watch goldbugs taking it on the chin.

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:10 - ID#242214)
FEMA & Y2K - Condensed Version
[FEMA] "cannot be viewed as a substitute for personal responsibility
and personal preparedness".

Translation - you're on your own, pals.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:14 - ID#244242)
The currency transaction part is a done deal, yes, but not the "Know Your Customer" part-not yet anyway...

THAT is taking regulation of your financial life to whole new and stifling level. Remember, public comment on this one ends on 12/27. It has yet to be implemented.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:17 - ID#288466)
Know Your Customer

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:19 - ID#31867)
Baron of Silver, send me your phone is not going through...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:21 - ID#31867)
Third in the House of ARAGORN...check your answering machine...
yup...gulps and puffs to ya...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:22 - ID#31867)
I think We the People should put out a....
Know your Banker document...blood type, sexual habits, clothing traits...the works...yup...uh huh...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:23 - ID#350358)
Ken Starr
Don't know if anyone else is listening ( or needs to care ) but Starr has come off really well today, and the democrats questions have been great entertainment, if is all werent' soooo sad. IMHO

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:27 - ID#288466)
Platinum and palladium futures
Anyone - what's the symbol for the nearby contract? TIA

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:29 - ID#81288)
PL9F = Plat Jan 99; PA9F = Pall Jan 99

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:30 - ID#288466)
Thanks a tonne!

Aragorn III
(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:35 - ID#212323)
you've got a great laugh, T#1!
e-mail headed at ya like a kid to a Disney movie...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:37 - ID#339274)
FWIW sold 22 3/16,out for today

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:41 - ID#252391)
Cyclist and PD
Very good move in PD, yes its nice to see something able to get over $300. Unfortunately, the move didn't bring in buyers to the main PD and PT vehicle ( SWC ) today. Stock is down 1/4 on light volumn.

Xau looking kinda tired - retest of the lower 70's. Gold close at 296 was hopefully on light volumn.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:43 - ID#373403)
Deflation is caused by overproduction which is in turn caused by easy money looking for a profitable return. Eventually the saturation point is reached where more money cannot be invested at even a breakeven return and therefore is not invested in productive ventures. It just sits there.

I believe this is where Japan is right now. Too much money was created and a bubble occurred as money built more and more factories. Then, as more money was created, investments went all over Asia. As the returns became slimmer due to overproduction and then falling prices, loans went bad. Now the Japanese government prints more and more money and nobody wants any part of it. There is nowhere to invest it.

The Japanese interest rate just went negative which means people are willing to pay the government a fee to keep their money safe.

Reflation will just end up causing price inflation on a dollar for dollar basis. Rising prices in this environment certainly does not translate to higher profits for the corporation because wages will have to be adjusted accordingly or demand will decline. Do not confuse revenues with profits because reflation will cause gains in revenues with little impact on profits and profits are what makes people invest.

This is all a natural economic cycle and nothing the Federal Reserve can do will solve the problem of overproduction brought on by too easy a fiscal and monetary policy since 1980. Production must be brought back into balance with the needs and ability of the masses to consume.
Globalization has certainly contributed to the problem as jobs were exported. Chinese workers making $.23/hr are not as good of consumers as the workers in the United States who used to make $7/hr who are now making minimum wage of $5/hr. The wage savings was split between corporate America and the American consumer. So we get lower costs and lower wages, a deflationary wash. But some things like real estate did not decline along with wages, hence the death of the American dream for Generation X.

Now we may get reflation with inflation with severe pricing and wage pressures due to hyper competition caused by overproduction. Reflation will break the backs of those on fixed incomes and those at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid who have no power to increase their wages. They will do battle with corporate America who will be trapped between low pricing power due to overproduction, money supply growth, and workers demanding raises. The social implications of this are enormous as reflation will pit the wealthy against the poor in ways we have not seen since the days of the Haymarket Riots in the 1880's.

Back in 1880, the United States Army was given land at Fort Sheridan outside Chicago by wealthy industrialists for the express ( and openly stated ) purpose of surpressing the riots, protecting the wealthy, and keeping supply routes into the city open. This was a time when the wealthy had slipped a noose around the necks of the working poor by supplying food and housing to their workers, cutting wages, and raising rents and prices.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:44 - ID#252391)
So Cyclist what was your net today???
net that is of commissions

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:44 - ID#252391)
So Cyclist what was your net today???
net that is of commissions

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:45 - ID#242214)
Same things as in Gold manipulation!
Wood Stove and Oil Lamp, are we realy going there?

I know that our ancestors went thrue this and had a lot of children but...

I found on..


I just learned that my survival food supplier has added another month to estimated delivery times ( times are based on their experience i.e. orders shipped today took 4 months from date ordered ) . They blame it on ( amongst other things ) , institutional ordering. It also seems somewhat strange because the additional month was tacked on, only after 1 month of additional order/shipping experience on their part. I would bet that the little guy ( looking in mirror ) , is getting the ol' priority shuffle from some of these suppliers.

Seems to me like the.... Gold Price Story MANIPULATION!

Well.. Ok I think, lets kick some contingency planning into gear.

"Oh yes sir. We are so sorry. VISA is down".

On Track: What These Words Mean?.............


Well I am better to cut some wood extra just in case!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:46 - ID#320136)
Woulda, coulda, shoulda...
Sometime last year I bought some YHOO at 35, and
sold it at about 31 ( for a loss... what else is
new? ) Now that it's pushing 200, and I'm exclusively
in ( read DI- ) vested in gold stocks, and have been for
the last few years, I'm getting really depressed!! {: (

What do all the charts tell us... that gold looks
like it is going to launch an impressive rally
SOON... ad nauseum.

From one year to the next, I'm getting worn down,
impoverished and feelings of hopelessness are
settling in without any respite. In the bleakest hour,
I wonder what and how much longer it's going to be before
I can reclaim my peace of mind. Yeah I know that when
things seem their worst, that's when they turn around...
only it's been seemingly forever that the pm's are in the
dumpster. How much longer???

Still Got Gold.... uh huh

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:52 - ID#288466)
You're in good company...I found Netscape when it was an OTC bulletin board stock ( not by that name, but was the same company ) for six bucks a share, and proceeded to let my broker talk me out of it. Passed up at least 100 to 1.

Feel better now?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:54 - ID#320136)
@ Silverbaron
"They shoot brokers, don't they?"


(Thu Nov 19 1998 15:58 - ID#242214)
Everythings we manage to do in our lives should be in a direct mesurement of our love for our very Owns Very Close Loved Ones!

Very Owns Very Close Loved Ones!
Very Owns Very Close Loved Ones!
Very Owns Very Close Loved Ones!

Soldiers died for this all over the past.

Are you prepare to fight and forget about your calls on ABX..and all mining stockssssz etc as I am? Manipulated as the market is NOW!!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:04 - ID#288186)
COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS...(gold drawdown, reverses yesterday rise)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 19

Gold 820,504 - 9,219 troy ounces
Silver 76,022,243 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 69,515 + 0 short tons
The PGM metals were strong today, but Gold and Silver were not. bummer.
Let's see how Friday goes...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:04 - ID#239340)
Thanksgiving Boost?
Can someone confirm or deny this factually, please?

I've been investing and watching gold and gold stocks for about 14 years now. It may just be coincidence or convenient memory loss, but it seems like precious metals generally do well during the week of Thanksgiving. It also seems like there is a general positive inclination in December. True? Or wishful thinking? Thanks, Kitcoites!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:06 - ID#252391)
Silverbaron and Yahoo stories
Hello, Silverbaron how is our wedge of the euro vs. gold server is so slow or this computer so old that I can't get the chart to come up anymore. I suspect we've had a break out to the upside but without much momentum.

XAU finished relatively firm - tommorow we see if gold resumes its uptrend or is stuck under $298.

Regarding past spilt milk - I almost pulled the trigger to buy Yahoo at 25 twelve months ago. I wonder if I had bought it whether I would have ridden it to 100 - I doubt it. I also had Biogen which I notice has tripled to new highs since I sold it. Actually, my mistake was moving into golds early last year and not sticking to the mainline stocks that
I had been following. BIG ERROR!!!! If everything wasn't so riddiculously over priced now I'd go back to those real winners. The big signal to stay long stocks was the rally after Chinese New Year in '98. By then I was reading too much bearish press and was comfortable in a non conformist role. ERROR.

Check out Stillwater ( SWC ) compelling story - do the math on future earnings - over the next couple of years owning this one could make an old metals bull feel much better. SWC at 32 1/2 would be a great buy, may only get back to 34 1/4, however. Expect pull back in PD and PT at the opening tomorrow and a decline of a point in SWC from 35 1/8 close.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:12 - ID#288186)
BTW and FWIW; The drawdown in Gold Warehouse Stocks were from the
ELIGIBLE stocks....AND....There was a very significant adjustment
today, as well!! In addition to the 9,000+ oz drawdown in eligible
totals, there were 24,411 oz's transfered from eligible totals to
registered totals! That leaves only 53,913 oz's available in ELIGIBLE TOTALS! This seems note-worthy to me! Fox-man

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:15 - ID#255378)
Comex Eligible Warehouse Stocks plunged today

742,180 0 0 0 24,411 766,591
87,543 0 9,219 -9,219 -24,411 53,913
829,723 0 9,219 -9,219 0 820,504

This is EXTREMELY low folks - gold could really fly out of here. Only 53,913 ounces pledged for delivery. Two days like today and then what?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:16 - ID#255378)
almost worried
Fox-man - I was almost worried that you missed it!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:16 - ID#247309)
Rangy Worry Warts - NOT!
Whenever a stock is reversed 1 for 3, one of two things happen. Either the price triples, or the shareholders get screwed. In the case of Rangy shareholders, it was the latter. Hey - this BS of $5-10 per share at some time in the future sure sounds good, just like it did 6 months ago. All that's happened in the meantime is that the price has dropped by 50% and then because of the reverse another 66%. This investment is a total fiasco. "What, me worry?" AEN. This stock is a joke.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:17 - ID#288186)
Here's the breakdown on Gold Eligibles VS. Registered...
Total Comex Gold Registered: 766,591
Total Comex Gold Eligible: 53,913
Combined Total: 820,504

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:17 - ID#31867)
Third in the House of ARAGORN, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:20 - ID#288186)
Hello arden! Maybe you can help me here. I may not fully understand what
"Eligible" stocks mean...You said they are "pledged for delivery".
Could you expand on that? Thanks, Fox-man

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:21 - ID#252391)
Thanks for the data on the gold stocks at Comex - Yes, I think your revelation is important. Supplies there seem to be pretty tight, but one has to think that plenty of gold could be shipped in to meet delivery requirements from London where the physical market is huge in comparison to Comex stocks. So that leaves me scratching my head as to what if anything to do with the information. I bet the delivery season in December will be very interesting.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:21 - ID#253153)
Universal demand for gold is developing
As currencies crumble, more people will be drawn to the safety of precious metals. Right now we are getting some tax loss selling in the mining shares but they are holding well and so is gold. As we get closer to 1999, the move in gold will accelerate upward. Hang to your gold and mining shares. Commodities are declining with crude oil closing at $12.05 bbl and the CRB around 200. I'm off on a business trip to Honkong and Japan and will not be posting for awhile.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:24 - ID#252391)
JP Have a good trip
I think your view of the situation is on target and I'll try and follow your advice and bid up some of these shares while you are gone.

Mike Stewart
(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:24 - ID#270253)
BGR is on sale again!
Long term gold bulls may like BGR Precious Metals in Toronto at $10.00 today ( BPT.A ) . I mention this stock because once again it is trading at a 30%+ discount to Net Asset Value ( $14.50 ) . Usually this is as cheap as it gets from a discount perspective ( I just bought another 1000 shares at $10.20 ) . It is a good proxy for small to intermediate gold issues. At market tops, the discount has disappeared in the past. This stock did extremely well from late 1992 into the last gold bull.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:25 - ID#288186)
Here's comments from FWN. I thought that Johnson Matthey report was bullish! Seems it was!
Futures World News - November 19, 1998 14:57

January platinum closed $9.90 higher at $362.30 and traded up to $363, its strongest level since Sept.
25. December palladium added $14.10 to $306.60 and traded as high as $310, its loftiest level since
July 20.

"Apparently, both have been tied to short covering that got under way in Japan," said Tim Evans,
senior commodity analyst with Pegasus Econometrics.

"The Japanese were buying like crazy overnight," one trader said, echoing that this seemed to be short
covering. "New York is following through with it."

Both contacts said the fundamental nugget that seemed to trigger gains over the last couple of days was
the Tuesday release of the Johnson Matthey Platinum 1998 Interim Review, forecasting a supply
deficit for both metals this year.

The biggest deficit was projected in palladium, with Johnson Matthey saying that estimated demand is
8.2 million ounces this year and supply is around 7.19 million ounces. The platinum demand was
estimated at 5.13 million ounces, while supplies were estimated at 5.04 million ounces.

"That helped to expose the vulnerability of the shorts in these markets," Evans said.

Still, the analyst cautioned that the recent gains might present a long-term selling opportunity, in case
the report should turn out to be too bullish. Also, he pointed out, Russian officials may see current
prices as a selling opportunity.

"As strapped for cash as they are, this is a windfall for them," he said.

For January platinum, initial support can be expected at previously failed resistance around
Wednesday's $355.50 high and the Nov. 13 high of $355.70. The market would have to pull back
below $346, the Nov. 16 low, before it will receive confirmation that a top is in place, Evans added.

Resistance is seen at $365, then heavier resistance from $373 to $376.

For December palladium, initial support lies at a price from today's low at $296 to Wednesday's high of
$292.50. Initial resistance is around $319 to $320.

"I would note we have done an awful lot of sideways consolidation from around a $280 equilibrium,
dating back to August," Evans said. "Three and one-half months of consolidation forms a pretty strong
base of support that we seem to have broken out from here."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:34 - ID#255378)
one more time
Fox-man - as I have explained on this site several times over the past few years, the difference between eligible and registered is like having two cars parked in a garage. In one case, you give the title to the car to another person ( 'eligible' for delivery ) in the other case, the car is just parked there incurring parking fees ( 'registered' and available to be 'eligible' is you give someone the title - i.e. write a comex contract against it. ) In one case, you have the title and can claim the car, in the other case, you can just look at it. Just because the car is in the garage doesn't mean anyone can just drive it away ( well maybe in New York...... )

I have always viewed the movement in eligible comex stocks as the very 'smart' money - those who have some inside knowledge about what is about to happen in very short term. They have the gold deposited in the warehouse and write a contract against it, thus making it eligible. When they decide to cover their contract it means only one of two things to me. Either they want to remove the gold or they think the price is going up!

For many years I have felt like the boy who called Wolf! so often that no one believed him! But today I am shouting WOLF!! WOLF!!!!

By my calculations well over 99 percent of the contracts written for Comex gold can not be covered by the eligible stocks.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:36 - ID#293390)
Thanks Jed for info
provided on 12 CFR 326.I will send in my comments post haste.Thanks to Silverbaron also for providing link where I may better consider what my comments will be on the matter at hand.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:38 - ID#410194)
Souvenirs (reality check)
Date: Sun Sep 20 1998 11:39


The stock market crash is developing slightly slower than I

anticipated. Nonetheless, it is progressing. And a massive

collapse to DJIA 3000 isn't too far away.

DJIA 3000 is coming. Buy S&P put options to profit from

this coming development.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06


Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this

month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit

breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,

it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The

week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall

2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the "Panic-Phase" of the crash.

Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,

and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Date: Wed Sep 09 1998 21:38


Nonetheless, the wave 5 down ( panic phase ) of the stock market

crash has now started. DJIA 3000 will be seen before the end of


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09

Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH ) ID#226307:

If the market is down sharply tomorrow or Monday, we may get a

bounce for a few days. By the end of September, however, it's

DJIA 3000 -- still another 5000 points lower yet.


Steve Puetz

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:38 - ID#246224)
Not your turn to dance .. yet
You are part of the context, albeit on the other side of the psychosis. Perspective. Consider the reality that has been left behind to be replaced by .. insanity. So infecting the hearts and minds that the whole world looks unusually normal if one shares the psychosis, but if not then it is terribly perverse.

If you stand on solid ground, then stand your ground. The adventure is in watching the mile high castles which are being built on mud and sand; A comedy of truly epic proportions. The end is really, truly near; a set up like neither you or I have ever seen before, and that by the hand of God Almighty. Piling up the proud in a heap, only to be swept away forever.

Do not despair. Do not chase illusions of success. Do not become part of the bondfire pile that is now being assembled. Once the match is lit there is no escape, ever. "Ashes, ashes .. we all fall down", so goes the rhyhm. Extended down to us from that other cataclysmic time .. the Black Death. Will they be singing of this 750 years from now as well?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:41 - ID#242214)
Where are the BRAINS?
All the money can buy....But...Where are the BRAINS?
Where will they find those precious brainpower?

NEW YORK  General Motors Corp. expects its year 2000 expenses to total $560 million, with peak spending taking place late in 1998 and
early in 1999.
I am down tonight!

I am Lower and lower and lower with what is on TV...."

Lower in the pants...

All over the place MoniKa ShmoniKa and spermatozo!ed clouding my vision!!!!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:43 - ID#410194)
Sorry for the double-spacing below...

Trying out Explorer 5 beta.

Available here:

Be careful, it's only a beta version.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:47 - ID#258427)
THE Silver warehouse totals?? Silver up on Globex 1/2 penny...Gold not reacting yet ( ? ) ...tia

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:50 - ID#246224)
Eligibles@53,900 ounces, Fox&Arden..all
A really impressive lack of interest in offering gold to the market. This coupled with the USAGold piece about the Treasury's need to go to open market for more than 25% of the gold it used to mint Eagles recently .. well it certainly gets more entertaining every day. A tight little market out there .. but of course there is SO MUCH gold "FLOODING" the markets as to make it like water and SO unvaluable.. hahaha!

Every day brings new surprises, don't it? It do!

Let us know when the last ounce evaporates.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:52 - ID#288186)
BILLD; No change in Silver Warehouse Totals...
Arden; Thanks. Sorry that you had to repeat the explanation. I was
on the right track with my thinking, then. WOLF WOLF is Right!
Go Gold! Go Silver!

Aragorn III
(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:52 - ID#212323)
Allen(USA)--ever the ray of sunshine and breath of fresh air.
Your rosey outlook always puts a spring in my step. I hope you and your family are well these day, my friend.

Kitco should start something of a gold pool--each poster predicting the Dec. 31 POG prior to Thanksgiving. Perhaps somebody would care to assemble the names with their predictions next week?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 16:55 - ID#30345)
Aragorn III
I believe these people are talking about a circulating coin for a 100E denomination... with an initial reserve level now targeted for 15% in gold form. I believe that the Euro coin will contain not more that the amount obtainable on the spot market for 15 Euros at the time of introduction. This circulating coin will be more influential in returning gold to a more prominent role in financial transactions, than just another bullion coin. First it will be an "in your face political statement" to the purveyors of US fiat. Second it is a demonstrable and evaluatable commitment to the stable valuation of the Euro, for those people who choose to hold them as a reserve asset to replace thir dollar holdings. Yep gold politics is going to put pressure on the dollar.

As the valuation of dollars held as reserve assets is diminished for the ECB, I believe that they will rely more heavily on other currencies, and gold. The percentage of gold held in reserves my increase as this revaluation progresses. There is quite a bit of flexibility to accomodate the diminishing valuation of the dollar in this case. I look for the percentage of gold reserves and non-dollar denominated reserve to increase for the ECB, until the slide of the dollar is defended in more credible terms than a rate adjustment within a ponzi pile of growing debt.
European Parliament Revives Gold Euro
Coin Idea
Reuters - October 28, 1998

A European Parliament committee revived on Wednesday a
call for European Union nations taking part in a single
currency to mint 100-euro coins from gold. "A gold coin
would symbolize the strength of the euro and add an
emotional aspect to the new currency. Additionally, the
measure could stabilize the price of gold," the Parliaments
economic and monetary affairs committee said in a report
which will go to the full assembly for adoption. The report
proposed that the dimensions of the coin would have to be
such that "the value of the metal and the production cost
must not exceed the nominal value." The European
Parliament last year made a similar proposal, which was then
shot down by European Union finance ministers and the
European Commission.

100EURO will be a real coin that circulates. They will earn seniorage with this scheme, it will strengthen the EURO politically, and they will detract from the dollars image by doing so. The Fed will have to match this politically, or a currency war will erupt.

PS: Just got back from St. Louis where I spoke at a conference. Several other speakers talked of Y2k, and the Euro introduction for the Industrial sector. I also toured the federal reserve there; they had a lot of money on display, but only one piece of gold.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:04 - ID#411440)
LEASE RATES: Today we had a good illustration of the value of
watching one month lease rates. Lease rates for both gold and
silver firmed overnight, and come the opening of COMEX, gold was shorted
down $1.80. Silver followed along for the same reason. Lease rates
at under 1% indicate excess liquidity. When forward rates are below
2.5%, then we can have our gold bull.

Interest rates must drop another 1.5% to eliminate the gold carry.
Interest rates are declining at .25% per month so far. The lease
rate scam ends in April-May 1999. This is my estimate of the
absolute maximum life expectancy of the gold carry practice. On
the other hand, the ECB could end it next month by freezing gold
transactions as they have announced. Freezing gold purchases and
sales may or may not include leases. If the ECBs drop out of
leasing, then total liquidity should fall, and we could get to that
2.5% forward rate a lot faster than April. IMHO.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:05 - ID#31868)
the new coin will come from AMERICA...
the last time I got this wound up we invented water...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:14 - ID#255378)
worth repeating
Fox-man - I don't mind repeating it at all. I am one of the old f*rts on Kitco having been around since day one. I don't post as much as I did, there is so much other good stuff to read., but once in awhile.......Wolf!

Aragorn III
(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:18 - ID#212323)
I have not doubt that a coin will soon 'hit the streets' that will contain gold and have a euro symbol stamped thereon. But...

I have seen no less than a dozen press releases or articles on this with varying and often conflicting details. Unclear is whether it is to be a bullion coin released prior to the 2002 release of tender as a symbolic public relations effort for the new monetary unit; or whether it is a gold alloyed coin meant for transactional circulation to be released with the rest in 2002. If it is not a typical bullion coin as some reports would suggest, but is as suggested by this line in your article..."the coin would have to be
such that 'the value of the metal and the production cost
must not exceed the nominal value'", then what we've got is a de facto fixed gold standard where the gold value of the coin will come to represent the nominal value of that currency unit.

Given the wide range of unclear information at this point, I think it is best to simply tolerate the "smoke and mirrors" until a clearer picture forms. One outcome would suggest a floating value of the currency based upon the free-market value of gold, whereas the other outcome would suggest a currency value pegged to gold. At what point it would be pegged I do not know. Perhaps after the free-market gets to have its way for a period of time? Or will it be fixed to a high value based on careful calculations? Time must tell.

This that you said is certain: "As the valuation of dollars held as reserve assets is diminished for the
ECB, I believe that they will rely more heavily on other currencies, and
gold. The percentage of gold held in reserves my increase as this
revaluation progresses. There is quite a bit of flexibility to
accomodate the diminishing valuation of the dollar in this case. I look
for the percentage of gold reserves and non-dollar denominated reserve
to increase for the ECB, until the slide of the dollar is defended in
more credible terms than a rate adjustment within a ponzi pile of
growing debt."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:19 - ID#31868)
arden,Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
your words are treasured...leave them for us when you have a mind to...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:25 - ID#45173)
@Obsidian and MM
Thanks for the links. Going over the Fed rate data, 1971 to present. More later.

Gold Dancer
(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:30 - ID#377196)
Interesting that you should mention that lease rates could give
the life of the gold carry till next April/May. That is just when
Grenspans term is up. How convenient for him.
This is what Fleckenstein is accusing Greenspan of doing. Creating
a hugh mess and then leaving it for the next guy to clean up. Good
going Al. Your just as much a snake in the grass as your buddy Bill.

Thanks, GD

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:32 - ID#290456)

The charting site changed their format from GIF to PNG ( for which you need IE 4.0 ) or PDF - that's why you can't get the charts to come up now.

We are, as you said...out of the wedge but no up-momentum yet - probably base-building as expected. If you would like me to email you some charts in GIF format ( which you can read ) , I'll be more than glad to - just specify which ones you want to look at.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:38 - ID#31868)
euro...harumfffffffffffffffff...that is what I have to say...
The COIN comes from AMERICA...what was not finished will be...what a bunch of whiney butts...48 years and you are still whining...sheesh...

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:38 - ID#242214)
Euro Coin Conspiracy
It's now clear that the proposed "Euro coin" is merely an attempt by
Europe to subvert the approaching "Federalectric Currency System".

The "Euro coin" is intended to provide hard currency to drug dealers,
politicians and other criminals that seek to subvert the monetary-
monitoring mechanisms proposed by the Federal Reserve, thus serving
to foster crime in the U.S. while enriching France and Italy.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:41 - ID#30345)
@aragorn III
If the devaluation of non-euro currencies gets to be radical enough then the valuation of the gold intrinsic to the EURO may in fact approach the paper valuation of 100 Euros. At this point they would rely solely on commodities for the valuation. This is consistent, and is essentially what has happened to all currencies expressed as coinage. The money inflates to the intrinsic material valuation, then they change the specifications for the coinage. I guess my point is that the psycological impact of a circulating coin is far higher than that of a tradeable bullion coin. A REAL confidence booster for the EURO.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:43 - ID#252150)
A Mutual Fund Manager's nightmare
Joe Schmoe, the young Mutual Fund Mgr, was writhing & moaning in a cold sweat, suffering yet another recurring nightmare:

He was in the investment Arena, as usual, where he competed against 1000s of other money managers & had been under intense pressure lately. Most of the usual suspects were there, including CNBC shills, Analysts, etc. On the huge IMAX screen the benign visage of Allan Greenspan reassuringly mouthed the usual platitudes.

Joe had missed most of the big move up from 7400, but for the last week or so had been buying the hi-flyers like INTC, AMAT & AMZN. He had a few qualms when he bought INTC at 100, but it was on a roll & at the rate these stocks were climbing he could still match the S&P.

The Arena was dimly lit, but over the last few days he had noticed some of his colleagues surreptitiously slipping thru the exit. "What a bunch of wimps" he thought to himself, "they're going to miss all the fun on the way to Dow 10,000".

On this particular day, when he looked around he found that almost all the investment crowd had somehow slipped out of the Arena. There were just a few dozen left & they were hurrying towards the exit.

A sense of foreboding overcame Joe & he headed towards the exit. He noticed that the Arena was darkening & was bathed in an eerie, acrid mist. Ahead of him confusion reigned, & a horrible cacaphony of screams & cries of anguish struck terror into his heart. Joe was in full panic mode now, as he rushed towards the exit.

"Oh God no", Joe moaned, "it can't be". He could now make out the form of a fearsome apparition. It was a monster bear, at least 14 ft tall. In the acrid mist he could make out it's yellow eyes, terrible incisors & 6 inch claws as it slashed at the unfortunates who did'nt make it thru the exit.
Terrifying guttural snorts & growls & the horrible stench of it's breath buckled Joe's legs as he tried to keep his balance in the blood & gore, as the towering monster advanced towards him.

"Joe, Joe", his wife yelled as she shook his shoulders, "you're having another one of those nightmares".

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:48 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick, namaste' gulps and puffs..send your phone number I can't respond to your

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:51 - ID#244418)
Martin Armstrong's Latest
"The strength in the US market is being caused NOT by rate cuts nor by swarms of unsophisticated investors pouring even more money into the market. What we are looking out is yet another unwinding of the Euroland trades. LTCM and others have been buying every aspect of Euroland. They have turned to every possible instrument into a spread on Europe. The sharp rise in the S&P 500 futures has taken place due to the unwinding of major short positions on the US that were spread against long positions in the DAX and other continental share indices. If we compare the daily charts of the DAX and the S&P500 futures, you will quickly see what happened during September. As the DAX began to cave in you will notice that the S&P500 began to hold and rally. There was no rally in the DAX because this was the start of unwinding the Euroland trades. Long positions in the DAX continued to be sold while short position on the S&P500 needed to be bought back. Thus, the percentage decline for the European markets quickly surpassed that of the US market."
The entire article is at
under the title "Liquidation Crisis."

Got the REAL 'Long Term Capital'?

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:51 - ID#428232)
The EURO "revolution"........

For those who wish to follow the unfolding events....

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:52 - ID#31868)
Mr. Mick...Namaste' gulps and puffs...AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...
No transport provider was available for delivery to this recipient.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:54 - ID#36977)
My experience has been that SWC goes down on big PGM up days, and goes UP when PGM prices correct the following day or two. comments?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:55 - ID#320202)
Arden, re: there is so much other good stuff to read.,
please,please, where????????

Greenstone Gold
(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:55 - ID#428232)
Who Cares? (Euro Coin Conspiracy)....

With respect, you sound as though you are wrapped up in cotton wool....

As "things" unfold, you will discover that the "world" does not owe the US of A a living !

(Thu Nov 19 1998 17:59 - ID#30345)
You are indeed correst "THE COIN" does in fact come from america. All things are relative and fluid however. The dollar's days will be numbered by its timely defence, and by the resourcefulness and education of people. Education, innovation, and efficiency may come to the dollars defence.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:09 - ID#45173)
Who Cares?
I enjoy your posts. They're funny.

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:12 - ID#242214)
Euro Coin Conspiracy, Part II
Clearly, since the Euro "coin" comes from America, it is in fact
being minted by our own government, in order to foster disrespect
for the approaching "Federalectric Currency Law", and provide those
same Federal Reserve Masters with real currency for their own
criminal activities, and to help the Evil with which they are in
league - the minions of the Rothchilds and Queen of England!

And just as clearly, Greenstone Gold has been overtaken by the
miasma of.... SWISS GOLD.

"Got chocolate?"

However, the posting about the Expatriate Act was serious. It's real.

Who Cares?
(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:15 - ID#242214)
EJ has a sense of humor
I'm in a good mood today. I'm sicker than hell from "Valley fever",
but my job is great. I'm quite pleased with what I've accomplished
today, besides razzing the Euro coin. NAILED a complicated "class
method" problem with pinpoint precision and *one* line of code. : )

"Got passports?"

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:17 - ID#194311)
what's in a symbol?
Note that the euro is gold on a blue background.

More significantly it has TWO dashes through it,

i.e. a gold backed dollar has TWO slashes non-backed dollar does not.

A gold backed, fixed, pegged, f@#$ed euro ( call it what you like ) will blow the dollar out of the water from the get go....maximum impact, suprise. Euros have been badmouthing and selling down gold for so long and then WHAM!

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:19 - ID#31868)
Europe, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
We are Americans...we ain't that piece of garbage Clintler...that is not an AMERICAN...nope...If you love your young do not send not send them...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:30 - ID#31868)
kiwi, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
low and close to the ground...with a you a beer anytime my friend....yup...uh huh...God Bless you and YOURS...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:35 - ID#252391)
Tyro Re SWC and PD
I haven't discerned a particular pattern regarding SWC and the movement in PD. The stock certainly does not always rally with action in the metals. Its more like a NASDAQ momentum stock at times.

I think very informed investors play this stock and that its ownership is dominated by institutions/mutual funds. These players are in and probably don't chase the stock. Also while a $10 increase in the sales price of PD does translate into 20 cents of earnings and probably $5 in stock price that price for PD has to be sustained for 12 months to have that effect.

I think you are right, after a few days of consolidation in PD and probably a pull back to 296, SWC will bottom around 32-34 and be ready for another rise.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:37 - ID#259323)
Hey EJ, would you be willing to share with me what your thoughts are as to what you think gold and the US stock markets are going to do for the rest of this year?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:52 - ID#257312)
Euro Questions

1. When do you think it starts to impact the world markets? 2. Will the impact happen suddenly on Jan 4th, 1999 or will it be more of a slow, cumulative effect? 3. How disruptive, if at all, will it be for the currency markets? 4. Will computer software be up to handling the Euro conversion? 5. What does it do for Gold in US$ terms?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:55 - ID#72206)
@ Oliver: 1558
Fight Who/m..?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 18:58 - ID#242214)
Fight= in a broad sense.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:03 - ID#411440)
@ Gold Dancer: My estimate of the maximum life expectancy for
the gold carry given a minimal 2.5% forward rate to represent the
profit margin for the operation, assumes that the gold carry would
operate for the purpose of profit. If the CBs drop lease rates to
zero, and those operating the gold carry would continue to carry
for no profit, then this could go on for over a year!

You might wonder why anyone would operate this leasing scam
for nothing. The CBs might be willing to lease gold free to
protect flat currency valuations, and hedge funds might be willing
to continue to lease and sell gold even at a loss in order to keep POG down if they were vulnerable to the short overhang.

I'm speculating of course, the cheap way, in my head.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:12 - ID#290456)
rhody & jims

Email comin' your way shortly.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:16 - ID#343171)
Asia gold up $1.10, 'bout time

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:16 - ID#190411)
@Who Cares?
Good laugh at your 17:38.
Gee, Haggis, lighten up.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:21 - ID#343171)
answer: rhesus monkey on speed
question: how patient are you waiting for gold to get off its ass?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:22 - ID#421269)
Whos got one of these

Luxemburg, Michel Lentz

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:24 - ID#421269)
OOPs try that again

The Euro's - Luxemburg, Michel Lentz

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:24 - ID#194311)
tolerant1....beers on me, i insist
low 'n hard like a good rugby tackle only way to bring 'em down.

Nothing on earth like a cold brown ale after a cold, wet bruising game of rugby.....cept maybe chattin' up the sheila's later ; )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:26 - ID#43460)

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:27 - ID#421269)
One more time

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:28 - ID#43460)
Let me try that one more time! Of interest to all investors.
Goodnight all, this is my only real post tonight.
HARARE, Zimbabwe -- Zimbabwe's government reiterated orders to seize
hundreds of white-owned farms, a farmers' group said. The mostly white
owners of 841 farms have begun receiving orders to hand over their land,
said Nick Swanepoel, head of the Commercial Farmers' Union. One year
ago, President Robert Mugabe's government released a list of 1,471
white-owned farms it wanted to nationalize. The move brought harsh
international criticism and caused a severe economic downturn.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:29 - ID#252150)
Realistic@Stop ridiculing Peutz. I am short several tech stocks & now a big
supporter of his, in need of some encouragement. Although, I'll settle for Dow 8000.
Peutze-if your out there- would you post one of your apocalyptic scenarios. Or are you waiting for 10,000 first?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:43 - ID#255378)
trying to buy?
To all - I have been looking at my short term chart for gold and it is beginning to look like those who want to 'buy on the dips' won't have a chance to get aboard. This month there has only been one 'good' day to buy and that was on the 2nd. At any other time, you would have been waiting for a little bit more pullback and would have missed the boat. For example, my short term buy zone for today on Dec gold was at 294.60 and for tomorrow it is at 294.90. I have a funny feeling that we are just going to keep pulling away. We are up 90 cents tonight on Comex.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:44 - ID#252150)
I see in the Post that the Malaysian PM silenced our Cdn pm on the Human
Rights issue. He said to Cretin "If you're so concerned about human rights, why did'nt you bring some of your "Red Indians" with you as advisors"? A crafty old guy.
Cretin & Gore were banished to the far end of the table but successfully refused to wear the dunce hats.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:45 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.59. The 233 day moving average is 29.03

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:47 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .262. The 233 day moving average is .249

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:53 - ID#72206)
Pray to who/m? ggg

This is the most paranoid thread in the universe... We've got sqirrel into lamp oil futures,, wood chip gassifiers, ( which incidentally caught my paranoid eyes, just in case ) ,,, but fighting is not what I like...

My Iranian pal said this, and I'm inclined to agree with him... ( my own interpretation ) , When all this greed and stock market frenzy hits the fan, THEY ( touts/analysts/promoters/appealers to greed ) , will blame it on Y2k... Makes sense to me....

(Thu Nov 19 1998 19:54 - ID#252150)
I can't really believe that a lot of intelligent GBs actually believe that the Euro
socialists will enact policies that will be good for POG & therefore bad for paper. Especially with the new German President. Those socialists, by definition, are diametrically opposed to AU.
I see them as a bigger threat to AU than the USG.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:01 - ID#26793)
"A devaluation of the Venezuelan currency is almost inevitable"

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:03 - ID#228128)
Analysts recommend NEM
Heard it on CNBC this evening. The recommendation is to appear in an article in Newsweek I think ( I pretty sure they said Newsweek but not 100%. The kids decided to whoop and holler at the moment Maria B. announced the publication ) .

A week or so I mentioned a bounce was due. That was at 290 gold. My model indicators show a series of higher highs and lower lows indicating a n upwards trajectory still. But, we are up against the big wall of 300. Do we bust out or do we drop back into the trading range? If we can hang on a few more days and the general stock market pukes with at least a correction, I'd say we have a shot at clearing 300. Weakness in the dollar would also help.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:05 - ID#412284)
When gold's time comes it will be socialist or no socialist. However, since I think the Euros,Chinese and Japanese prefer their socialism to our corporate anti worker socialism..they will love gold as it is anti US dollar. The Communists in Russia are the biggest pro GOLD faction.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:08 - ID#26793)
Economic fate of already weakened Paraguay is tied to fate of Brazil

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:11 - ID#30345)
They are not in it for the benefit of Au. They are just tired of being ripped off by the USD, and would like to do a little bit of ripping themselves. A low dollar price of gold while they position, will cover their a$$e$ when they are ready to end the dollars reign over commerce. The artifical demand created by the debt bubble is being exploited to produce the flow between gold and dollar capital at favorable prices to those who do not want or need dollars.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:11 - ID#30345)
They are not in it for the benefit of Au. They are just tired of being ripped off by the USD, and would like to do a little bit of ripping themselves. A low dollar price of gold while they position, will cover their a$$e$ when they are ready to end the dollars reign over commerce. The artifical demand created by the debt bubble is being exploited to produce the flow between gold and dollar capital at favorable prices to those who do not want or need dollars.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:18 - ID#347457)
@ROR and his nonsense
ROR, I was refusing to get involved in this ideological discussion, but I've had enough of your nonsense. You have no idea what you are talking about except for some Marxist theoretical reading and intellectual discussions in God knows what groups. You are confusing communists with socialists thinking that all of them are against capitalists and US dollar. Get life! Or even better - get on a plane and see what's really happening outside the US. I feel really sorry for you - adult person with his own brain ( I hope that's what you are ) letting himself to get so hopelessly brainwashed by leftist propaganda.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:24 - ID#194311)
Aussie producers..buying back their shorts?
Yesterday...again tis morning.
Nov. 19 Reuters Report excerpt.
"In gold, Australian producer buying, seen in significant amounts on
Wednesday and overnight, dried up this morning, leaving little else to
support the metal and leaving resistance at $298.9 in place, said dealers.
Gold was also undermined by a firmer US dollar today.
"The market is very thin at the moment, with the funds very much on the
sidelines and undecided which way to jump," said one trader. "There seems
to be a consensus growing that they're supposed to jump in on the long
side, but the funds haven't reached that conclusion themselves."
The trader added that gold has seen little in the way of volatility,
which may be pointing to a market not expecting much price movement in
coming months. He added that there is good consumer buying underneath the

Comment: I'll say the funds haven't figured it out...they're gonna get their snotty noses wiped.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:26 - ID#72206)
@ Winston
Winston, can't find that sight but what it says makes a lot of sense..
Talking to my compadres today,," my stocks have never traded this way ", never... The weirdest trading I have ever seen, with brokers who never trade these stocks coming in to sell or buy size, and switching on a dime. I was standing outside today thinking to myself, either my carrer is over or I will get to the bottom of this... Your post of what Armstrong said comes the closest to making some kind of sense to this...
Wonky big hedge funds trying to unwind woozy wonky positions...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:31 - ID#72206)
Yankee Socialism---

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:32 - ID#72206)
How's the noggin?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:42 - ID#34883)
"The 20th century is replete with the blood
of the innocent victims of socialist experiments. Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot,
and a host of lesser tyrants have committed heinous crimes against humanity
in the name of one or another variant of socialism. Totalitarianism is not an
historical accident that emerges solely because of a poor choice of leaders
under a socialist regime. Totalitarianism, Hayek shows, is the logical
outcome of the institutional order of socialist planning."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:43 - ID#347457)
@ROR - in heat of passion I did not finish my post
Yes, you can see a drive from Western Europe to suppress US dollar as a dominating world currency, however, this has nothing to do with "socialism" it has much more to do with good old capitalism and free market. As far as Russia communist being good for gold. Have you ever been in any communist country? Just go ahead, take a walk in "Communist back ally" and try to trade gold or US dollar for a local currency. You will see that US dollar wins every time in that market.

Please, go ahead and get some real experience before you make your profound statements ( not backed up by any facts ) on this forum.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:43 - ID#252150)
ROR@Miro said it better than I could have.
When was the last time the Russian Communists/Mafia did what they said they were going to do? Have you bought any Russian bonds lately?
If you really consider the Chinese & Russian govts to be socialist then you are either naive or deluded.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 20:51 - ID#252150)
lonj@I think you give the Eurocrats far too much credit for being clever.
Besides, the name of the game now is devalue. The Euros, who export far more per capita than the U.S. can ill afford a strong currency.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:07 - ID#45173)
Stock market and gold for the rest of the year?

Stock market: DOW will decline in a more or less orderly way as the reasons for the rate cuts begin to get priced in. My guess is DOW 8000 by end of year. This assumes no shocking bad news -- impeachment, another hedge fund collapse, etc.

Gold: nothing significant this year.


(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:13 - ID#72206)
@ James
Russian Mafia , HUH,,, What do you call internut stocks selling at 1000 or more times earnings, short sqeezes,, shoddy accounting , or Livent in knada, where the perpetrators have already opened up a new shop????Resolution Trust ( nice name , HUH ) ,, rape of taxpayers... Mafia my ass,, .... How dare you look down your nose... Every day I read in the paper about another sleazy scam going down here... Ohh, what do they say when they are out of their stock,,, Questionabble accounting methods, or one time charges... DO ANY of these companys ever make any money??? or do they know how to get so far up the ass that they get the slaves to bail them out???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:18 - ID#45173)
So there ya have it. The Fed cur rates to support the stock market.
Has to. The financial markets drive the so-called real economy ( i.e., an economy nearly completely dependent on broke morons running up their credit cards to buy crap they don't need ) .

( snip )

``You can mince your words about what it's about but if we lose growth here we're going to have all kinds of problems,'' he added.*

The Sept. 29 FOMC minutes showed Fed members felt weaker stock prices would dampen consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and that there was little risk of inflation accelerating despite tight labor markets.

With that in mind, policymakers felt a rate cut would provide ``insurance against the risk of a further worsening in financial conditions and a related curtailment in the availability of credit to many borrowers.''

* The main problem is defaults.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:33 - ID#233199)
What juniors have your interest these days?


Could you - or anyone - post a URL for Asian spot gold please?

( I lost track of my bookmarks - oops! )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:36 - ID#350358)
A month ago there were some posts on collectible coins. I've owned some through the years ( just makes me feel good and I like looking at 'em ) and was happy with the spike. Have noticed the spike declining over the last couple of weeks. I've never looked into the leading/lagging part of numismatics to gold prices, if they exist.

Any thoughts?


(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:38 - ID#252150)
Arby@What the heck are you so indignant about?
I never said I was enamored with the refined robber barron system we have in N.A.
As a matter of fact I have more respect for the Russian mafia, because they are doubtless smarter & have more guts than the bunch of lying hypocrites that run our Corp/Govts.
The main difference between the U.S. elites & the Russian elites is that the U.S. elites only control about 95% of the wealth. In Russia they control over 99%.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:55 - ID#30345)
That strength, if it is ever, will be transient. They cannot afford the social programs either, but that does not stop them ( or the US ) from wanting them. They may only succeed in destabilizing forex rates to the point that no currency is respected. In that case people will revert to commodities for wealth storage. They will demand the commoditiy that behaves more like a currency than any other. Gold responds best to uncertainty. Accumulate at the bottom. Buy gold on the fact that it absurdly cheap and at or below most production costs. Sell gold when the shorts cannot cover, and the rumors of financial and social crisis are rampant.

The market may not be a good indicator of financial crash either as it is termed in relation to a floating dollar. The financial systems are on a razor edge right now. The coming months will be of volitility.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 21:56 - ID#251175)
SWP1 the cheapest junior in the market would probably have to be Dome Resources, listed in Aust, 80,000oz production, cash costs A$250/oz, no debt ( but cash ) no more capex to spend, market cap A$22m generating good cashflow ( around A$10mpa after tax ) and buying back its own shares, already bought 9% and at the AGM next week seeking approval to buy another 10%. Gold mine in PNG, 700,000oz of resources 22g/t plus good exploration potential.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:01 - ID#252150)
Fighting the Feds@I started shorting around 8800 & was going to add to my
shorts every 3% on the way up. But now that I'm beginning to realize that we're back into a full blown mania I'm beginning to think that 10000 is possible this year. I will now wait for a major pull-back.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:10 - ID#45173)
I dunno. At 9056 the DOW is looking ripe as a top for this first bear market rally. We need a new source of cash and evidence of steady earnings growth to get the DOW headed beyond its previous peak, in other words, bull fuel. Then again, we don't have bear fuel either, except a steady stream of lower 1999 earning projections and an indication from the Fed that we're in sufficiently tough shape that a new rate cut was needed.

I don't believe it'll take too much to push this market over. It's touchy. But there's no way to predict it. Not to belabor the obvious, but the trouble with shorting is it takes timing, whereas betting on a bull market just takes time. The bulls think they have time on their side. We shall see.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:17 - ID#31868)
sharefin, drink to of your family and clan are part of the foundation of my home...
the boys and Ladies in KY, WV, SC, NC, TN...your home...damn glad to meet ya...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:36 - ID#257312)
Starr Wars Update

Starr shines. Just got a freakin' standing ovation after his marathon testimony. Wiped the floor with Clinton's attorney, David Kendall, a native of Indiana. Thinking now that Clinton could be in some serious trouble. Wild prediction here-- Dow takes a sharp and unexpected hit tomorrow. Down 300 points.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:38 - ID#30126)
SOOooo, Microsquish wants to charge users for using their O/S???
Talk about revenue streams.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:39 - ID#30126)
Microsoft anti-trust story on the 'idea' for charging an annual fee for the O/S.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:42 - ID#350358)
@Auric and Starr Wars
Glad someone else was listening. I'd hire Starr for my own legal work, and it is a reflection of our country/economy as to the questions he was asked. I don't like where we seem to be heading???

But it was refreshing to see someone doing their job and explaining how and why they did it. With PRIDE.

Don't know about the 300 point drop tomorrow. If so, there are many other reasons.



(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:43 - ID#333126)
japanese bond glut?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:45 - ID#30126)
I heard Starr on the radio in the morning and saw more of the testimony in the afternoon. :- )

The Demorats looked like the dolts they are. NO ONE questioned the FACTS on Obstruction of Justice, Perjury, or witness tampering. It was just, 'unfair' for the 'sexual' police to do this! Anyone would lie to cover up an illicit sexual affair..... :- ) )

Except that ANYONE would be brought up on charges and given jail time...
The old rule applies here; Be careful for what you ask, you just might get it. The Demorats wanted Starr on the stand.... and they got it.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:51 - ID#350358)
Starr's reportcard.
Looks good so far...

It's a sign of where we are. Why is it so refreshing to hear a reasonable voice in our political arena???

Either I'm way-old fashioned and looking for simpler times, or I'm way-old fashioned and about to see simpler times.

When the dow hits 10,100 I'm either moving into a cave, or leaving on a boat.

( ;' ) )

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:51 - ID#317408)
Anti-Gold Ads, pitched by Commerzbank in Forbes.
Hey this is going back to a discussion quite some time ago, but the anti-gold ads that someone was harping on Fidelity about seems to have rebounded with another "financial services provider". It seems that Commerzbank of der Vaterland ( Germany ) thinks that it needs to warn the Americans of impending doom, concerning Gold prices due to European Bank sales. The ad ran in the 10/19/98 issue of Forbes. Any thoughts, the reason is obvious, but why a German bank in a US magazine, unless it is amazingly big in Europe.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:52 - ID#257351)
Aragorn III

I do it just for you. Gotta make my contribution to the prevailing bliss.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:53 - ID#257351)
Youse guys are a great group!

Fear mongers and all a ya. See you all tomorrow.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:55 - ID#206298)
Thanks EJ
I am hoping that5 the expectations of the Euro being born along with the absurdly low interest rates and new demand for gold will get gold up by the end of the year. I just don't know about the stock market. As crazy as it is,with as much money around as there is ,it could go to new highs although I would have more confidence in the market if it does drop to 8000 by year end.
Thanks again.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:55 - ID#30126)
O.K. Let's start the pool..
What will clinton do next?

Depending on the severity of the 'problem', will he;

1 ) Cruise missile another aspirin factory.

2 ) Come to Mass. for a 'vacation'.

3 ) Kick some butt in in Iraq.

4 ) Ask Monica out.

5 ) Hire Ken Starr as his defense attorney.

6 ) None of the above, because nothing will happen to him?

Now, once upon a time, this would be cause for a stock market decline and a rise in gold. But, those were the days my friend when we'd fight and never lose......

(Thu Nov 19 1998 22:57 - ID#72206)
I got the impression from one of your previous posts that you were thumbing your nose at russian maffia... Sorry if I misread you.. Our market seems to have become more crooked then ever... I have never seen so much acceptance of deceipt.. The US is openly admitting that it is supporting anti government groups in Iraq... Cendant is openly admitting lies in it's accounting, KTEL, releases news about deals with MSFT, but forgets to tell you that there is a good chance of their delisting, and that their CEO resigned two weeks previous...
Several Cuba Libres in me, but even the rakes I bought last week can't have possibly been tested. The handles fell off at the first pull...


(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:00 - ID#206298)
@ Panda
The answer is # 6 IMHO.
Man , I lie , cheat and steal to this day as hard as I try not to. Well, I definately don't try toooo hard to be an angel. Although I will definately prefer heaven to hell if given a choice!!

John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:00 - ID#24135)
.. anyone tried this ?? ..
To check good info on "advanced get" try

there is also an offer for all kitconians
for a free analysis of any stock they wish
( provided data is available ) ...

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:09 - ID#34883)
Excellent introduction to Austrian economics

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:09 - ID#30126)
Sadly, I think you're right.

The lyrics to, "Those were the days..."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:09 - ID#30126)
Sadly, I think you're right.

The lyrics to, "Those were the days..."

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:10 - ID#30126)
Cut and paste is getting tougher these days....

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:12 - ID#412284)
This will be known AS THE LIE in 90's
As opposed to the roaring twenties. The deceipt from the highest levels of society and its acceptance is truly astounding. This has to end in a socio economic crescendo like the world has never seen. Fitting that BC is Prez. I am saying this even though I am an economic Lefty. I think the economic left will rise as Wall St ie the economic right will be seen as the cause of misery IMHO. Many on the left have sold out to Wall St and many have not but with the mania it has been appealing...right..Tony Blairists.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:16 - ID#34883)
Private Property

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:19 - ID#45173)
Are you saying that the failures of the capitalist opportunists may leave the door open for the socialist opportunists?

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:19 - ID#431200)
Gold euro issue plan adds weight to market
By Stephen Wyatt The gold market rallied back up towards the US$300/oz back of proposals by a European Parliamentary committee that a gold 100 euro coin be issued, lower US interest rates and a recovery in world gold demand in the September quarter to near record levels. This firmer gold market contributed to, but was not a major factor behind, the strong Australian dollar. Nevertheless, with gold being Australia's second largest commodity export after coal, any price strength in this commodity generally supports the currency. But bullion dealers are not looking for a sudden gold rally. "The gold market is still trading a US$292/oz to US$298/oz trading range. Until it breaks US$298 it's still business as usual," said Mr Mark Freemantle, bullion dealer with Rothschild Australia. Macquarie Bank's Mr John Israel added that there was reasonable demand for bullion, especially from banks in Asia reaching out for gold at the moment. He said it "feels like the market has bottomed. Its recent US$291/oz lows have held". While the report yesterday by the World Gold Council encouraged some buying back of short ( sold ) positions, most dealers suggest that the most significant fundamental change in the gold market would be the adoption by the European Parliament for the issue of a 100 euro gold coin. The World Gold Council reported that world gold demand of 676 tonnes in the quarter ended September 1998 was just 1 per cent below the record level of demand in the third quarter of 1997. Even so, the gold market in that third quarter fell to US$273/oz, its lowest level in 18 years. However, the pick up in demand was perhaps a factor that helped stabilise the market, said Mr Freemantle. Since August, gold has traded mainly in a US$290/US$300/oz range. Right now though, gold dealers and analysts are more interested in the proposal by the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs and Industrial Policy Committee to issue a gold 100 euro coin. "A gold coin would symbolise the strength of the euro. Additionally the measure could stabilise the price of gold," said a member of the European parliamentary committee. Nothing has been decided, although on Tuesday European monetary affairs commissioner Mr Yves-Thibault de Silguy said that a gold coin would not be part of the 2002 issue and any such gold money would only have commemorative status. The issue is not dead yet though. The fact that the commission would not take up the idea did not prevent EU countries from doing so. These coins could have legal tender status in the country of issuance even if they did not have this status throughout the euro zone. If a gold euro was minted as a work-a-day coin and not as a collectible, this could boost gold's fortunes dramatically. After European central banks contribute 700 tonnes of gold to the new European Central Bank, there will remain 11,750 tonnes of gold in the vaults of the national central banks. This scheme could absorb "more gold than any coin in history and soak up most of the pool of surplus European gold", said Andy Smith of Mitsui Metals in London.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:21 - ID#30126)
Tomorrow is options expiration
If nothing happens to Clinton as a result of Starr's testimony, then the rot has truely reached deep in to our social/politcal structure. The most optimistic thing that I can think of, is that two to four years down the road, a high political price will be paid by the democrats. It's clear that laws were broken, and now, it is also clear that some are above the law. God help us all, for now it seems the rule of arbitraryness prevails. Just remember to wear the right color tie the next time that you pleade your case before the government....

Funny, gold seems to be up tonight. Options related perhaps?

John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:25 - ID#24135)
Savimbi LIVES ...
For Gagnrad ..
Mugabe is having trouble in Zimbabwe .. He has
commited much of his army to helping Kabila in Zaire.
.. He used White farms as an "election" ploy for
years .. saying "nationalize" them then reversing
himself later on .. now things are out of control ..
.. With squatters taking the farms over .. food
production will come to a screaming halt next season.
Whites had already anticipated and had probably
reduced plantings significantly anyway ..
..Kabila's congolese army shows signs of breaking
up with announcements of defecters being shot..
soon picture may become Kabila leading mercenary
army of Angolans, Zims, and Namibians.. against
the Congolese, Ruandans, and Ugandan forces.
Mugabe .. Dos Santos .. and Najoma represent IMHO
the major remaining deeply committed Socialist force
in Africa .. They are guilty of every imaginal form
of Human rights violation .. and workers in those
contries have few if any rights ( ROR would love these
guys .. after all they were active in the anti -
Apartheid struggle ) .
They will find that beating the rebels will not
be easy .. Also Savimbi sits in the bush in Angola
brooding and building himself up .. Ive read that
in a push he can raise an army of 100,000... and
he's to the rear of the Angola government army and
Mugabe's forces .. this could get interesting ..
As for RSA .. they are OUT and only want to act
as peacemaking "broker" .. they even seem to be
losing interest in THAT .. since Kabila ( fat ape
that he is ) refuses to talk to the rebels..

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:26 - ID#431200)
Have Internet Stocks Earned This Adulation?So, are investors completely crazy?
By James K. GlassmanThursday, November 19, 1998; Page C01
As investors were largely shrugging off the Federal Reserve's rate cut this week, they were going bonkers over Inc., the Internet retailer.Why? Well, Amazon, which already sells books and music, announced it would now sell videotapes, too, and open a holiday gift center with items ranging from toys to software.The mere intention to sell these things boosted Amazon's stock by $22.25 on Tuesday and $15.50 yesterday -- a total increase of 25 percent. In the past 12 months, Amazon has soared from $24.25 a share to $164.Amazon ( symbol: AMZN ) isn't the only Internet stock that's shot into the stratosphere. Three weeks ago, eBay Inc. ( EBAY ) , a service that finds buyers and sellers for memorabilia, stamps, coins and the like, went public at $18; yesterday, it closed at $147.50. Yahoo Inc. ( YHOO ) , a search engine that has become a major Internet destination, rose $13.37 1/2 yesterday to $190.12 1/2 a share -- up from $24 a year ago. Yahoo's market capitalization ( price times shares, or roughly what the company is worth ) is now $18.8 billion -- more than Gannett Co. ( GCI ) , which publishes 87 daily newspapers ( including USA Today ) and owns 20 TV stations.

So, are investors completely crazy? Continued....................................

John Disney
(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:30 - ID#24135)
Come On Man ..
For EJ ..
You know as well as I do that ROR
isnt really saying ANYTHING .. are
you having me on AGAIN ??
only kidding ROR .. you do a FINE
job .. I love you .. keep it up ..
What is it they say about Christmas
turkeys ???

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:40 - ID#45173)
Time to pester Kitco crew with a new poll
Let's see how much gold us goldbugs own.

Thanks for voting.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:43 - ID#30345)
83% of people on think inet stocks are overvalued. Me too.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:44 - ID#30345)
I'm the 20-30% guy.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:47 - ID#45173)
That's bold, longj. I'm the 10% - 20% vote.

(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:49 - ID#433172)
The star presentation lacked pith or meaning, all anti-climax. The house of rep has lost credibility, a bunch of grinning pychopomps blithering legal jargon, no wonder they don't come to grips with real problems.

Who hasn't done so,mething illegal-imoral-and then lied about it? Our whole social system is based on looking out for number 1 and everybody knows it. That's why wjc does well in the polls, the common people are reflecting a higher ethical standard than our star.

I would dearly love to see wjc quit but it wouldn't help, we'd just get another fool. It's a failure of democracy, you think it can't fail? watch.

John B
(Thu Nov 19 1998 23:50 - ID#77133)
I suspect the eventual upshot of the Clinton/Lewinsky saga will be a realization that our adolescent children have been titilated to seek to emulate or experiment with similar adolescent type sexual behaviour. Will the price paid for increased sexual activity by our youngsters be worth it to those who found it necessary to invade the private lives of consenting adults?

Its my simple opinion that Clinton's shame is only exceeded by those who made it public.

Otherwise Panda I have always appreciate the significant contributions you make ( charts and such ) that concern the noble metal we are all so fond of.