You probably offended them by not asking about their pet mania, and you know the rest........

What really boggles my mind is the sheer greed of the investors who are sitting on big gains & the stupidity of the people buying at these levels. All we need is a catalyst for a major retracement. Just an excuse to take profits.
I would'nt be surprised if AG tries to let some air out of the bubble.
If we ever did get to 10000 in the near term we would be facing a major disaster.
I've noticed clueless people phoning in to CNBC & asking about ridiculously priced stocks. Even Insana & the Analysts are starting to look incredulous about some of the the callers' naivette.

This subject has given gold a new respect. Although there is close to zero probability that a gold euro will be introduced that is legal tender, even if the gold content is as little as 10% of the nominal value. As Andy Smith reminded us, bad money drives out good. The coin would simply be hoarded and the EC knows that well. ( I even know people who are hoarding pre-1982 pennies because they are pure copper. )

However the very notion of gold as legal tender will make many realize that gold is simply too precious a metal for the EC to risk allowing it to compete with paper or base metal money. This may encourage many europeans ( who never had the thought before now ) to hedge their paper wealth with various other forms of gold coins before the paper euro takes over in 2002. Not a bad idea!

Holy cow! Silverbugs? I'm one of 'em. But these 'net polls are designed to be single topic, one question with a max of five answer choices. I'll get to silver in another poll.
-EJ

On Presidential Tragedy

President Clinton went to an elementary school to address a group of
children about tragedies. Before he started, he asked the children to give him an example of a tragedy. Several students raised their hands and he selected a little girl.

The girl said, "If a boy chased a ball into the street and was killed by a car, that would be a tragedy."

Mr. Clinton replied, "No, that would be an accident."

A second student said, "If a bus full of children drove over a cliff and
all were killed, that would be a tragedy."

The President thought for a moment and said, "No, I believe that would be a great loss."

Clinton asked the class again for an example and no one raised a hand. He
said, "Surely someone can give me an example of a tragedy."

Finally a little boy spoke up and said, "If you and Mrs. Clinton were on
Air Force One and a bomb exploded and you both were killed, that would be a tragedy."

The President was very glad and said, "Yes, that would be a tragedy. Can
you explain why?"

The boy said, "Well, it wouldn't be an accident and it sure wouldn't be a
great loss!"

Spend a few minutes on one of those investor bbs sites and you'll be astonished at the level of understanding of your average stock market whiz. The statistic is that 40% of all stock mutual fund owners do not know what a stock is.
-EJ

You seem to be saying our society is based on Fraud. Parts of it are, I concede. And anything related to commerce has been fraudulent since the licensing of the use of federal reserve notes as money. But, is your family based on fraud ? Are your voluntary associations based on fraud ?

Demoncrazy has not failed. But, it is lawless.

I'm the other less than 10% guy - though last week I would have been greater than 40%

Just can't do the buy & hold thing...

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/6326.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=323477662

hmmm... the US PC boom is still on? Dell stock price shall continue to rise ad infinitum, yes?

Let's see how much gold us goldbugs own.

Thanks for voting.

http://apps2.vantagenet.com/apolls/poll.asp?id=81119223536

G'Nite from the Right Coast of the USA.
-EJ

Date: Thu Nov 19 1998 16:15
arden ( WOLF WOLF WOLF or DING DING DING ) ID#255378:
Comex Eligible Warehouse Stocks plunged today

- TOTAL REGISTERED
742,180 0 0 0 24,411 766,591
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
87,543 0 9,219 -9,219 -24,411 53,913
COMBINED TOTAL
829,723 0 9,219 -9,219 0 820,504

This is EXTREMELY low folks - gold could really fly out of here. Only 53,913 ounces pledged for delivery. Two days like
today and then what?

EJ
When you say Right coast of USA, are you facing North or South?

Got Mercator's Projection? ( The tyranny of the Northern demihemisphere.. )

mercataurator

Earl Brian, CIA, buys United Press International. Pretty overt, wouldn't you say ? UPI is out of business, but the CIA is not. If preventing Americans from buying gold is in somebody's interest, what else are ads for ?

For the next 6 months buy an extra 4 portions of everything you normally buy. That's easy with standard grocery store canned and dry foods. For frozen or fresh - buy 4 portions that are canned, dry or that can be created from canned or dry. Nothing special to this. Instead of buying six cans of tuna that is on sale - buy a case. Same for chili, beef stew, fruit, veggies, spaghetti sauce, spaghetti, canned milk, sugar, soup, oatmeal, rice, potato flakes, crackers, and anything else you normally eat.
Diet changes in times of stress can clobber your ability to endure and use up a lot of toilet paper {stock a few hundred rolls of that too}. Kids won't take to diet changes very well - unless it's junk food - but that is their normal diet anyway.
When you get enough stockpiled to feel secure from immediate panic {a few months worth} then go after specialty houses that sell nitrogen or vacuum packed dried eggs, beans, fruit, veggies, etc.
Again - store what you eat, and eat what you store {to rotate it}. The worst thing for me to store would be hundreds of pounds of dried beans and whole grain wheat - along with a grain grinder. I don't normally eat that stuff. So if Y2K fizzles, in five or ten years I'll STILL have hundreds of pounds of that stuff {but the tuna, spaghetti, cream corn, potato flakes and canned peaches will be long gone and I'll have cut my grocery budget in half for ten years. You wonder how I could cut it in HALF for TEN years. Simple. I have five years of food stocked in. The stacks of cases of tuna, chili, veggies, fruit, soup, oatmeal, rice, pasta, etc. EACH measure a few FEET high. All acquired a few cases at a time during sales. It got to be where the grocery checkers would remark if I only bought a few of an item. What - you only are buying two gallons of Clorox and four quarts of dishwashing fluid and only ONE can of lighter fluid! {Never mind that I buy such things once every month or so}
WHY FIVE YEARS?
When two dozen friends, relatives, and hangers on show up and I can't turn them away - all of a sudden I'll be down to maybe 3 months of rations. It'll be a tight stretching 'em 'til spring.

They are just baiting the rabid conservatives here to see who bites.

If you conceed it is lawless then it has failed. Failed to provide regulator between indiviuals or groups, failed to exsist for the common good.

It has failed locally, not for the innercircle who profit but for the most who pay the bills. Around here we do have good police protection and other services you'd expect from local government but it sure is costly. Sort of the same on the state ( alaska ) and federal level. A total failure would not be tolerated. Fradulent manipulation under the table is common.

Education gets very poor marks, although the students get good ones, inflation all over again. Smart-ass middle -school kids, a real kick ass bunch, both girls and boys.

I'm trying to get by Mozel, if you call deceit fraud, well, count me with whatever brush. It pays to keep your mouth shut sometimes, and not speaking up is deceit of sorts? Many of my relationships contain an element of deceit, some of my children have ripped me off, I don't know I just keep on truckin.

I was going to compare the performance of the HOUSE today with fiat mioney, I just couln't shake the resemblance.

I still have my pumkin?

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

To all ..
Believe gold in SF and DM is more pertinent than in yen..
Key resistance is at 490 swiss and 500 DM . I want to
see gold close ABOVE those levels .. for some time
overhead has been at those points
.. Looks like Drooy may see 4 1/4 .. I dont hold any ..
... Harmony looks like it will see an easy 6 1/2..
... Larger percent gain with drooy .. but with it
come higher risk of loss ..
... I hold no Drooy .. maybe should buy a little ..
... FWIW Anglogold is terrific value .. it's costs
are VERY low and its resources are enormous .. I
prefer it to Goldfields .. later if gold goes up
Goldfields becomes attractive as the other mines
the Kloof group ( Libanon and Leeudoorn ) will become
profitable.

PS .. peaches and apricots in season DEElicious ..
10 rand pe box of 30 .. Mulberries ripening on my tree
..Black loot to come soon ..

perception is everything... what EJ considers the Right coast, you could
call the Left coast, but I always thought I was on the Left coast, so EJ
must be referring to the Wrong coast.

Got gold?

Geeze what a dingbat! That was Palladium I was looking at/ That could never happen to Gold! Right?
got gold?

Thanks Private Investor- I will get the info to you ASAP. The Feds agressive rate cut policy shift unwarrented in respect to our domestic economy is a WAKE UP CALL that a liquidity crisis has been brewing and continues to get worse. Arbitrage players are in trouble - it definitely shows the ongoing problems the hedge funds are experiencing. Could we actually be heading for INFLATION? How about STAGFLATION? Well, money supply certainly says it's possible. Just look at Asia over the past several years. Money supply soared, currencies plummeted, economies collapsed, food & energy prices soared! Hedge funds are in here unwinding their shorts on US markets and Long Euro markets. Yes, Gold has bottomed and after the unwinding will climb back over $380 by summer 99. We're underway now - Early Spring will see the beginnings of a BIG turn around in investor sentiment in the pms. So called smart money have been buying dips since turn around in dollar/yen and bottoming of 30 year Bond interst rates.
The FED have given we Gold Bugs the green light!!!!

Here's the latest from the ultimate hypocrite...

I am condensing the news story in order to make my point.
---------------------------------------------------------


Clinton Delivers Stern Lecture To Japan


By Brian Williams

TOKYO ( Reuters ) - President Clinton shrugged off the distraction of impeachment hearings against him in Washington to deliver a stern message to Japan Friday that it must do more and act faster to pull itself and Asia out of recession......

....The White House has already seen discontent stir in the U.S. steel industry, where manufacturers and unions have filed an anti-dumping suit against Russia, Japan and Brazil over a surge in steel imports.

Clinton referred to a 500 percent surge in U.S. imports of Japanese hot rolled steel during the first eight months of this year, saying this could help undermine American support for keeping U.S. markets open.

"If there is a perception of unfairness, the consensus can disappear," Clinton said.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Farfel says:

Excuse me, if I barf all over my shoes, Mr. Clinton. You are one pathetic creature to imagine you are in any position to lecture to anybody anywhere about anything.

I will not raise the issue of your patent immorality as that has been discussed ad nauseum by the media and public alike. Personally, I think the fact that you like to be sucked off by young babes who are your daughter's age is your business. That it shows abject lack of good judgement is certain...but then nobody can ever accuse you of displaying "good judgement," can they?

However, when you speak of fairness, that is what makes me sick to my stomach. You and your friendly partners in crime, Messrs. Greenspan and Rubin, are the embodiment of unfairness. For those investors like myself stupid ( naive? ) enough to believe in a level playing field in this country...for those investors with keen perception and judgement who witnessed the wretched excess/euphoria in the stock and bond markets and made investment bets that sanity would ultimately prevail....for those investors dumb enough to ever think of shorting a stock or buying an ounce of gold in America...you sure did screw them over real good when you intervened in the Long Term Capital Management melt-down in order to save all your wealthy golf buddies at Merrill Lunch, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Chase Manhattan, J.P. Morgan, etc, etc. I suppose feeding at the pig trough for some seven years is not enough to satisfy these guys, is it? They want even more...and you're giving it to them, aren't you?

Now, of course, you and your partners in crime, Greenspan & Rubin, said you were doing this in order to preserve the stability of the American economy...you said that it was necessary to prevent a financial melt-down. How funny that you never mentioned that this act of salvation would also preclude huge financial losses on the part of your various Wall Street golf buddies -- lenders and investors in LTCM? How odd that you never outlined their specific investments/loans in LTCM to the public BEFORE you intervened in the markets? Hey, Mr. President, if a couple of my goldbug friends and I get on your golf buddy list, then can we be saved from all our past gold market losses too? Or our previous, disastrous equity market short sales? Would you consider reimbursing us for several years of market manipulation all on behalf of your Wall Street golf buddies?

Meanwhile, today, we have anything but a financial meltdown, do we? Instead, we are witnessing hyper-euphoria returning to the market in spades...a complete return to market verticality best typified by regular, daily double digit gains on the part of money-losing internet stocks...Tulip Bulb mania in the extreme!

What is your plan, Mr. Clinton? Do you and your partners in crime plan to sit by idly once again and applaud enthusiastically as 100 million or more Americans become multi-millionaires? When this wondrous event happens and aggregate purchasing power/consumption far exceeds available goods, services, resources, and assets in this country, will you still lie and pretend that we have a virtually non-existent inflation rate? As one American after another drops out of the system to day trade the stock market instead of going to work ( after all, if everybody is becoming super-rich, why do any real work anymore? ) , will you and your partners in crime continue your standing ovation? Hey, maybe you'll even cut interest rates again so that the hyper-euphoria turns to sexually charged ecstasy ( something you are quite familiar with, yes? ) .

You are categorically the worst President to ever sit in that sanctified office. You and your partners in crime are a disgrace to every American ideal and all aspects of universal integrity.

LEAVE, RESIGN, AND GET OUT, please take your partners in crime with you, before you take the whole country and the entire world into the gutter!

BOUGHT, PAID, AND OWNED BY WALL STREET...there's your epitaph, Mr. President. It should be displayed proudly on your tombstone.

Thanks.

F*

( a FORMER Democrat Supporter )

Bought 100 oz of gold yesterday and in order to pay for it am cosing out a TD savings account. Because I need to cover the check of a different bank and need to deposit $32000 to do it a day after the party gets the check I need the deposit to clear as soon as possible. Cash is fastest. The banker lady tells me that's a lot of cash, they work on a slim amount of cash. She implied they don't have it, they just don't inventory much cash, and oh my it has to be reported..dear me

I wonder where the banking establishment is relative to cash?

I think it's time for you to go to Russia and shake
hands with gold loving Russian commies...I can assist
you to meet one of them...Mr. V.Lenin - he is laying
on the Red Square, in nearly perfect shape ( from
outside ) ...He was a real gold lover - he had a dream -
to make gold toilets for the workers...As you know,
it was done...and so there is no more gold in Russia...
whatever is left is kept just for repair of exsisting
toilets...

Did you ever try GOLDEN RING OF RUSSIA - favorite vodka
of Russian communists?

Spot up $1.00. In other news, Asia had a good day for itself, Nikkei up almost 3%.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

The rabid don't need bait to incite them to bite.

Do you think Gold $325 before $250?

Or: Do you think Gold $325 by 1/1/99?

I'm just guessing here, but I guess lately you have more expectation of a modest increse in spot price.

Any mangoes around there?

Finally, someone heeds Bart's call to stay on topic, namely golf.
A commendable rant!
I looked at the rather low volume of Dec gold contracts, earlier today.
I don't think that there are many wannabe goldbugs out there, yet.

If we were holy, we wouldn't need government at all.

I think you are working from a mistaken model of the government authorized. There is a world of difference between a republic and a democracy. Democracy is lawless by definition.

Believe it or not, the provision of services is not a government function in a republic. And the Supreme Court has said as much. Those wearing the label "To Protect and To Serve" are there to protect government and serve government and its creations, the corporations, not you or your neighborhood.

I heard one of those jokers in the HOUSE say thus and such wasn't even "colorable". I wonder how many listening understood ? It's tedious to learn Law, but if government is to be under law like the "civilians", is there a choice ?

All: Was just thinking about something. I am a Canadian,
live in British Columbia and own a recreational property
in Washington State. Spend about every other week-end
in Washington.

About eighteen months ago we could buy butter quite often
at Cost Cutters in Bellingham for .99/pound, sometimes even
.89/pound. Last week-end at IGA in Nooksack butter was
4.69/pound. That's about 7.27/pound Canadian. That's also
about 450% more than I could buy it at a year and a half ago.
hell, there ain't no inflation. Who are they trying to fool ?

Go Gold

That's only about 350% more.
Sorry, but still GO GOLD

I dumped Barrick for Anglogold a while back. I was just in time to have Anglogold stagnate because of the depreciation of the USD versus Rand.
The best thing would have been to transfer the dough to SA, and buy the real shares on JSE.
Same holds for Australian stocks.
.........Another lesson learned.
I do recall getting all bent about RANGY several months ago. You weren't commenting on that one back then, as The MissingLink seems to imply.
I picked the wrong one, when I chose Rangy over Harmony.
Although I did pick up Harmony when it went down to 3.0625. -Seems OK now.
Is Western Deep Levels a major contributor to Anglogold's success?
.
BTW, TML is a decent guy.

Have you heard about FDIC 12 CFR 326 ( Minimum security devices and procedures and bank secrecy act compliance ) Notice of proposed rulemaking.? If this is passed you would be under close scrutiny for your recent purchase and financial dealings. Check out Sharefins Nov.19,0121 post for a peek at what Big Brother is up to.I am planning to write and strongly oppose such invasion of privacy.

USG has been for seventy years attempting to force gold out of existence as money in order to legitimize its fraud and robbery in 1933. The pinnacle of its success was the writing out of gold in the Articles of the IMF. The existence on this forum of Americans who argue that gold is not money is witness to one of the most successful disinformation campaigns in all history. Psy-Op techniques developed for war have been used against the American people and the mind control achieved by this government is simply astounding. They have brought us to the point where people even argue it is ok for government to lie to the people. This has to be one of the most abject moments in history.

The oil-poor, technology-poor governments of the world have very little to offer as payment for the expensive arms which they desire. The only cash crop capable of financing arms purchases is drugs.

The guns for drugs trade reflects simple economic realities. The purpose of the USG War on Drugs is to enable the shadow portions of the government, CIA, NSC, & the like, to get a lock on the world drug trade for profit and influence. Obviously, the military-industrial complex benefits from arms sales. And the higher drugs are priced by prohibition, the more arms they can finance. Arms now include Bio-War weapons.

Conversion of the drug trade from greenbacks to Euros is as important an objective of the Euro as conversion of settlement in oil from greenbacks to Euros.

Gold is settled in greenbacks worldwide. Why is this ? Because a greenback is acceptable at any bank because it is the reserve currency ? Will Euros be a reserve currency in England after 1/1/99 ?

ANOTHER ( 11/19/98; 06:43:15MDT - Msg ID:1031 )
THOUGHTS!
Pete ( 11/17/98; 16:29:31MDT - Msg ID:1012 )

Mr. Pete,

World based currencies that are not tied to gold do come and go. It is a
natural part of the economic social order. This is expected and planned for.
As gold has been money for the extent of civilization, paper money may be
used as world based as long as it uses gold for backing.
When dollar went off official gold standard, it was hoped to return to gold at
later stage. This period of hope lasted some 15 years until 1985! The events
have progressed toward a new currency from that time. The European
Economic Unit ( ECU ) was created in early 80s and became the accepted
format for beginning a new day. Today, we approach this change!
It is the practical understanding that our modern world must use a digital
paper money for commerce. All accept this. However, without a gold
currency priced daily in the free market, and used as real reserves for
backing, any world currency reserve would expand using debt only as the
tool. This result brings the eventual reckoning for all users. The host
country finds all other nations supporting its lifestyle, even as those
countrys private financial infrastructure is destroyed. It is the rising US
equity markets and falling inflation that so indicates the last days of the
dollar! Many say this is a sign of strength for America, yet they know not
what time of life the dollar has attained. The old man has he become even
as persons place their financial horse upon his shoulders. The world debt
structure of this old man is such that the true pricing of gold in a new
currency, will bring such a weight as it will end his life!
The purpose of the evolution in paper gold trade is offered in many
reasons. At first, it was the deception to hide the life age of the dollar.
Much as your Hollywood actors obtain the facelift, yes? This
deception ( low gold price in US$ ) , to surprise of many, was created by the
Euro makers not the dollar makers. To their advantage, world traders and
dollar investors were greatly fooled and, as you say, jumped on band
wagon to help sell paper gold down! This action did prolong life of dollar as
was needed, for the Euro was taking much time to complete.
The intent of large long paper positions was to create future leverage
against dollar gold price. The cost of positions is of little concern, as any
present or historical dollar gold price will be of little meaning! These
positions will not be physically covered in any great way as this will never
be needed. The final conclusion of this action will lock the Euro into a gold
price, always moving less higher than dollar. The world gold swap market
will complete the rest ( LBMA volume ) ! In time, the favor of oil settled in
Euros will force unwinding of dollar/gold ( dollars used to buy gold in open
market ) . Gold will be purchased, delivering metal for Euros to settle old
leased contracts.
It has always been the desire for the hard currency to settle old dollar
debts. Dollar debts made unreasonable by the loss of honest commerce
by dishonest exchange rates. As has been from the past, and will be in the
future, Gold does always settle the score! Thank You

Does anyone remember the dates of the 3 or 4 Swiss announcements to sell their gold that suspiciously coincided with large drops in the Dow? I know one was on Oct. 23/24? 1997... I forgot the others???

Thanks,

For Thursday 19 Nov calculated from data published in Thursday's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR--------------5.28--------------5.41-------------5.19-----------------5.09

Mean GoldLR------4.42---------------4.24-------------3.86-----------------3.54
Gold Lease Rate---0.86---------------1.17-------------1.33-----------------1.55
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.08 ) ------- ( + 0.02 ) ------ ( 0.00 ) ----------- ( - 0.01 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.35--------------3.50-------------2.70-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.93--------------1.91--------------2.49-----------------2.69
( Change ) -------- ( - 0.35 ) -------- ( - 0.20 ) ------- ( - 0.30 ) ---------- ( - 0.30 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

50/50 chance - 0r better -

That's my guess anyway...

Was it more than coincidence that the only Asian country which was required to disgorge gold during the contagion was South Korea, client state of USG ?

Probability 0.05 ( 5% ) for a number of reasons:
The confederation of seething feuding nation states called the eu has not and will not command the respect of the rest of the world.
They have no united military will, outside of American pressure to act, thereby no way of projecting power outside their own borders.
The greenback is a psychological phenomenom and does not owe allegiance to good financial sense - after all people sold houses and bought tulips as they thought it made sense.
So for good or bad, sense or nonsense the greenback is here to stay as long as America is the worlds most influential nation.
Gold is priced in USD for the same reason - it shows its worth.
This manic market will end up the same way all sucker bets go. Most people catching the red eye special back to LA with empty pockets.

Chairman of the committee holding the "impeachment" hearings, is reportedly the Congressman who controls the Black Budget of CIA, NSC, and the rest of the spooky government. So, is the spook government the shadow government or is it the visible government that is a mere shadow ?

I tend to think the latter. I tend to think Presidents have served at the pleasure of the spook government since Kennedy. Nixon was undone by the CIA per Haldeman ( Butterfield was CIA and he divulged the existence of the tapes. ) Carter was undone by the October Iranian hostage surprise which was a spook enterprise. Reagan gave the spook government full rein to trade arms for drugs in Iran and South America. Bush was CIA.

Are Clinton's little troubles more a reflection of division and crisis among the spooks more than anything else ?

The POG is languishing for LACK OF PUBLIC ATTENTION. That's all. People have forgotten about it. BUT.....

I'm inclined to think that were the braindead croupiers over at CNBC to put a GOLD PRICE bug/ticker on screen all day long, under the DOW and other fake wealth indicators, the price would rapidly go up. WHY ?

Because at first people would go Mmmmm this in interesting, wassup?
Then they would see it go up a little bit. Then down a little bit. Then they'd place their bets to see how good they are at guessing the future. To try to force it up by buying it so to speak. Which is what people do at casinos. Fewer of then would know how to force it down again - that's upto Greenspan. ( Who loves the stuff as we all know )

Before you know what, we'd have Maria "The Money Honey" Bartiromo wearing some of it and talking it up and once a week. And once a week Jim Rogers could say something profound about it being REAL MONEY.

But hold on there - don't expect a single perceptive comment from the Bond Market girl - wassername...Kathleen Hayes is it ? IQZERO struggling to keep her seat there I guess.

Anyhow - with a minute by minute POG indicator it would quickly be the new game in town. A new casion/pub in which to to go have "one more for the road". It sure beats sobering up....

I'm kind of serious actually ! Does Anybody agree the POG would go up if they added a gold price indicator ? Just a little one. Could we petition them to add it ? Get it sponsored perhaps!?

From long habit of identifying the two, a contemporary observor may easily forget to distinguish political currency from trade currency. It is not necessary to project power in order to trade. It is only when brigands or pirates gain control of trade routes that power projection is necessary for trade to advance.

The United States is certainly capable of piracy on the high seas under color of law. I could give instances where it has practiced piracy under color of embargo. But, a policy of piracy against the world at large seems out of the question at least for the moment.

Gold travels well over the Old Silk Road and in the Burmese Trangle. The appeal of the Euro is quite simple. Lower transaction costs.

Quoting from usagold site Mcmaster paper...

"First of all, time is up. Gold has been in an 18-year bear market. That is an old bear market. Gold is at the 5.6-year cycle low, "

Anybody know where this 5.6 year thing comes from and can point me in a direction to research it ? Thanks

For Erle ..
.. Western deep is a big contributer to Anglogold..
as is Vaal Reefs .. I like it at current prices as
long as gold holds together .. I havent been that
much of a Rangy player as you know .. I only bought
a small amount a while back at very low prices .. Ive
said that its future rests with syama and mines in
other parts of Africa... TML gets me mixed up with
others but I couldnt care less .. thats his problem..
Im sure he is a great guy .. I just dont read his
posts unless I see my name in there somewhere..

For SWP1..
... You ask nasty questions .. I assume gold is
entering wave 5 of a 5 wave up move.. it could carry
to 325 .. first it must get through 300 and also 500
dm and 410 swiss. In this instance, the JSE golds
would carry at least 30 % or more .. After signs
indicate wave 5 in complete .. I would start
assuming a target of 250 until subsequent events
prove otherwise..
.. then looking deeper into the crystal ball ..
after some low number has been cleared ( 250 or
whatever ) .. I see a major bull market commencing..
This is the ideal play .. sell out on present runup
.. if there is one .. hold cash or short till prior
low broken .. then go long.. Thats my story and Im
sticking to it.
PS .. For info we are sitting up against those
dmark and swiss resistances right now..

I've got two dates now...Oct.23/24 1997 & April 27 1998... there is at leat one more, anybody???

Also wasn't it revealed this year that one Swiss bank had less gold stocks than it was reporting? What was that date??

Tnks

It is certainly true that trading and political currencies need not be the same. In todays world with the U.S. stationing floating pieces of its territory ( Aircraft carriers and support ) next to nations it wishes to influence I hardly see that it is not projecting power in a most direct manner. No other nation is currently pursuing such an aggressive foreign policy on a global scale. Occams razor deems taking the simple path - the USD over an unknown currency crudgingly introduced and unwanted by a mosaic of nationalistic peoples.
Fiat currency is only ever a promise to pay, so go with the local warlord s IOUs or if you trade globally with the global warlord.
Whenever I hand over a pile of worthless paper in exchange for some product that someone has toiled over, the irony of the exchange is always novel.
Handing over a pile of gold would not be nearly so satisfying.

Yes - what happens to the military may be key - i.e., will they be willing to throw their weight around - especailly vis a vis OIL interests.

But if they pull off the Euro it shows that "money" runs the show adn with enough of that at stake the united military will may be forthcoming. Don't forget the y2k business and what Euro wide martial law may add to the mix.

I know Russell always liked 'em!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/19981120/wl/swiss_banks_rough_ride_1.html

If the dollar is *seriously* revalued downwards against the EURO the cost of exercising military will may be effected. It would be my guess that by the time "the dollar" realizes it's hosed it'll be too late in the game to ( politically ) raise the will ( and money ) to make much use of the military.

Sort of like the frog in the water that keeps getting hotter untill it's too late to jump.

Jump Now!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981118/13.html

for swp1 .
yes .. but not in season yet ..
we get the "stringless" type
and another type that is delicious
but fills the spaces between your
teeth with fine hairlike strings ..
.. a real experience.. Hairy teeth ..

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981118/5j.html

Its true that boiling frogs is easy but have you ever tried to boil a rattlesnake? The respect we give animals has a direct relationship to fang size and poison content. Europe is even now suffering from an apathy that borders on suicidal. NATO is a U.S. proxy in effect, Germanys' unemployment rate is 11%, its youth is demoralised and their soldiers wear hair nets. Germany is cutting benefits, raising taxes and watching US tv programs. Dont forget they have entire cities dedicated to US military presence, in effect they are a US protectorate. As the main european player in the EURO, Germany will not allow the dollar to be undermined- continuing its world hegemony. Still Gold will be old faithful - how many indonesians now wish they had their assets in gold before they went over the falls.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/wl/story.html?s=v/nm/19981120/wl/volcano_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981119/bpa.html

http://www.securitytrader.com/precmetals.htm

* BARNES MARKET RISK INDEX ************************

This indicator is a mathematical model of stock market risk based on short and long interest rates, and 1-year trailing corporate earnings and dividends for the S&P 500. The raw indicator is "normalized" on a scale of 0 to 100 ( 0 = lowest risk; 100 = highest risk ) based on an arbitrarily assigned normal range of 1.0 to 3.5 chosen by Decision Point.

Current RISK INDEX ( Normal Range 1.0 to 3.5 ) ...........: 4.69

NORMALIZED Risk Index ( Normal Range 0 to 100 ) ..........: 148

Based on this model current RISK in stocks is EXTREMELY HIGH.

NOTE:
I guess these fiqures from Decision Point that doesn't surprise too many people here.

Here 'tis for gold and silver......

http://www.futuresbusiness.com/futurescharts/gold.htm
http://www.futuresbusiness.com/futurescharts/silver.htm

Yes, and who is this guy writting in Business Week a Nobel Prize winner perdicting $400 gold. And recommending NEM as the best play!!

Here 'tis for gold and silver......

http://www.futuresbusiness.com/futurescharts/gold.htm
http://www.futuresbusiness.com/futurescharts/silver.htm

http://www.comcen.com.au/~qindex/gold.html

Those are good charts you referenced - takes a while to download on my old model t computer.

Regarding our favorite EURO/GOLD decending wedge chart and the service from which it comes and the fancy new language you noted they now have and that's why it doesn't come up on my computer - is that an issue of my brouser??

Yup - I think so.....the web site author told me to upgrade my browser to Internet Explorer 4.0 - I did and can now read the charts. I still have to save the chart as a .PNG or .BMP file and use MS photo editor to change it into the GIF format - a major pain.

evening...TRULY...Toast after Toast was raised for the Kitco folk...yup...and...I have no fear...after speaking with many of you I know all the ingredients exist...why do I say this...?...the REAL gold Mine is within your hearts...and you folks have an endless stream of this goodness...this goldness...

For me...each and everyone of you is a privilege...I have ignited a candle...I kneel before it...today a subtle breeze will reach you...no easy task for a man built low to the ground with hands like suitcases and fingers akin to baseball bats...

Palms up I greet you...

THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT GOING TO STAND BY AND LET Y2K HAPPEN
http://www.y2kchaos.com/s35p566.htm
Interesting read.

---------------------
A63: Big Brother and YOUR Bank Account
We Have A Very Serious And Urgent Problem In Our Country And We Need YOUR Help
http://www.vvm.com/~ctomlin/a63.htm
Minimum Security Devices and Procedures and Bank Secrecy Act Compliance.
---
Here's the post in black and white.
But it does have a grey background.

http://www.businessweek.com/1998/48/b3606119.htm

for Placer fans ..
western Areas shares have risen about 25 % over the last few
weeks .. Reason is rumours of an offer to buy in from
Placer Dome .. I mentioned the likelihood of this ealier
if you recall .. Placer is rumoured to be after half of
wes areas .. which holds south deep .. said to be
the world largest deposit or something like that.
Im excited about this because my biggest holding is
JCI-gold which holds half of wes-areas stock, cash,
and odds and sods and trades at less than half its net
asset value .. also own CAM which holds JCI-gold and
Randgold.. As I recall .. one frequent poster sold
his Harmony and durban-deep stock in a fit of pique to
buy PDG, poor fellow.. and now gee whilikers .. he's
back in RSA again .. rumour is pdg will pay 30% over the
market for stock if deal materializes .. I can live
with that ..

for Congo watchers
Rebels take Bumba .. a port on the Congo River .. they
say it was easy as Kabila's troops dropped their weapons
and ran..stopping only to loot the shops and rob the
citizenry.. they ran to Lisala .. the next port down
the river and the rebel's next objective.

for Zimbabwe watchers ..
As armies of squatters seize control of many white
owned farms .. and Mugabe holds off on compensation ..
he may find a poison pill .. farmowners have maximized
debt and banks will be left with a huge mess if they
default .. also crop failure is a certainty .. corn
will now have to be imported from RSA and the US ..
and the Zim $ is collapsing .. If Mugabe has THIS PLUS
a defeat by the rebels in Zaire .. he will not survive.

The market does not seem to care about the COMEX drawdown ... Maybe it is not important, eh?

Its Friday!!!!!

Looks bad for those puts. Lever apparently doesn't work for bond market. Actually doesn't look too good for gold either. Maybe as the day progresses...

Has anyone noticed that gold usually trades
higher in overseas markets overnight and then sells off
enters when the US futures open?

Weekly spot gold with moving averages. It looks like some kind of bottom is here. That being said, gold can now fall through the 'floor'.

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 178.268 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 296.050 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 177.615 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 296.350 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 3.0018 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 19 Nov 1998 ) : 5.0100 US Dollars

This longer term view of the government paper market shure seems to scream that inflation expectations are low and getting lower. Perhaps, ( wishful thinking, which is ALWAYS a bad thing ) the biggest surprise would be inflation coupled with an earnings squeeze on corporate profits? That would be a definite ouch for stocks.

thanks for last post, any web site for western areas?
TIA
my bones tell me it will be a good day for gold

08:37 TIETMEYER: U.S. DOLLAR AND EURO STABILITY INTERDEPENDENT.
08:37 TIETMEYER: EURO HELPED BY EMU FIN MKT EFFICIENCY.
08:37 TIETMEYER: WEAK CURRENCIES NOT IN INTEREST OF U.S. OR EUROPE.
08:37 GERMANY'S TEITMEYER: FISCAL POLICIES MAY CLASH IN EMU.

crude oil can pick its sorry butt off of the floor, wage pressure is probably the only thing that could squeeze corporate margins for now. The problem with oil seems to be lack of demand from the developing nations ( I know, what a revelation! ) Surely we Mericans can make even bigger motors for our SUVs and take care of that problem. :- ) )

Then again, maybe WJC could accidently launch those cruise thingies in the wrong direction and hit some oil fields... I wonder, does you know who trade oil futures? :- ) )

I always wondered what the latter days in the Roman empire were like, now I think I know........

Sharefin, thank you for your previous replies. Would you please repost your 07:47 as it did not compute.

Thank you,

Pete

So far, with 61 votes counted, more than 1/2 of the Kitco crew has more than 40% of their investment capital in gold. That's more than the 10% that financial advisors used to suggest back in the old days before gold as pronounved dead by the equity pushers in their campaign to convince Joe Sheeple that stocks should make up 100% of everyone's low-risk, high-return savings and investment plan.

If you haven't voted, please do.

http://apps2.vantagenet.com/apolls/poll.asp?id=81119223536

FWIW Bonds a buy and gold a sell

With two cuts in the discount rate, the bear is in hybernation. Any declines between now and mid-Feb 99 will be brief corrections only ( although scary ) . Then I will look at my issue adjusted McClellan Summation index to confirm a new bullish leg ( it is currently at +1900 ) . It may happen, it may not. We will know by Valentines Day. Meanwhile, look for some year-end tax loss candidates into Dec 11th. Check the new lows each day.

was the breakfast I manufactured for me Mumm...but...with a pained reality...my Heart is heavy for those who do not have...MY blood boils about this...even though I have...I NEVER forget those that do not...NEVER...what would any of us be that we not give half our bread to the Children...for they are US...

yes, but not the last 2 nights, woke up to a nice surprise today, POG was - 2.something when I went to bed and is + ( green ) 0,20 this morning
oh what a beautiful moooooooorning,
l_b

I read about a 5.6 year gold price cycle in a "Mcmaster" piece on usagold.com....
Does anybody know about this ? Is it correalated anywhere ? Can't find anything on it yet.

Cooljing
Dunno .. try a search on Western Areas
or JCI-Gold .. NAV is supposed to be about
11 and selling at about 4.5 .. JCI -gold
that is .. JCI-gold much the better entry
than Wes-Areas in my opinion..

http://www.usagold.com/GristTurk.html

thanks, now err ehh I like the shares go down can
I like rag on you dewd?
I've seen some of the spam you got lately and shook my head.

Can't buy either as my snout is ohh soo deep in da trough,
any future buys will be sutton and corner bay.
It should be amazon.com but i r 2 smart

Panic of 1998 &
The Global Liquidation Crisis
Will Euroland be Next?
By Martin A. Armstrong
Princeton Economic Institute
 Copyright November 19th, 1998
http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/EUROLAND.HTM

Regards to all Kitcoites-bbmmmml

that is pretty sobering news about the percentages gold investment. i wonder how many kitcoites are also invested in other forms of wealth? perhaps another poll re silver might be in order?

I think the second wall of the eye will hit about mid December since then is when we start to hear more about banking sector earnings as a result of the great financial storm that gave LTCM such a hard time.

If the market survives, '98 will look much like '86 and '99 will be more like '87. Perhaps Y2K will bring us the same kind of instability we saw in the fall of '87.

Comparing '98 to '86:

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc003.htm

web page for JCI Gold
http://www.jci.co.za/

Also I would like to find out if anyone has an URL to information about long cycles. The one which fascinates me the most is the very long ones. For instance at the beginning of the middle ages the wage for a working man was one penney per year and silver/gold were owned mostly by royalty. Iron was worth its wight in gold according to some of the old records from the earliest civilizations.

Man...is it ever!!

I've had a few requests for a silver poll and I plan to run one either over the weekend or Monday.

So, do folks here own less or more gold that you expected?

More, if you ask me.
-EJ

One of the most valuable of metals was once aluminum. Napolean had a set of aluminum dinnerware which was viewed as the ultimate in extravigance since the cost of aluminum per ounce at the time was far above gold,silver, or platinum.

Then came electrolysis.

FWIW sold 22 1/4

Who is Savimbi who "sits in the bush in Angola brooding and building himself up"? That would seem to me to be uncomfortable. Does he have a nest or does he lay his eggs on the sand like shore birds? ( 8-^] )

I know nothing about Angola except that I had a friend once who went there as a commercial diver on the oil rigs and was never seen or heard from again, gee that must have been 25 years ago! Hard to believe that his kids would be over 30 years old now. I suppose his wife long ago remarried.

http://members.aol.com/gkilli1/home/y2ksigns.html

Significant Dates and Circumstances to Watch
http://y2kchaos.com/s35p109.htm

-------
Internet links on hydro power
http://www.itc.nl/ha2/energy/links/hydro.html
A n interesting looking site.

I think that you are on to something.

amazon.com is up 14% on heavy volume in a continuation of the
speculative frenzy. was going to buy puts on it at $124 2 weeks
ago, its at $175 now! Bought some yummy little junior, corner bay
instead. Us goldbugs sure are smart.

Here's some long-term pricing data for gold and silver:

http://www.globalfindata.com/tbgold.htm
http://www.globalfindata.com/tbsilver.htm

so far it has traded $680 million US, by 10.45am EST.
tulip mania

Gold/Silver ratio

http://www.globalfindata.com/goldsil.htm

FWIW covered 22 3/8 and net long 22 3/8

well, probably too bad about those bond puts. live to fight another day

crude next? dec 99 calls? hehe... long time to expiry ...

hmmm........where's that war cherokee keeps asking for?

that's an interesting stock, actually.

every quarter, they beat their earnings estimate. what doesn't make the headlines is that every successive earnings estimate has been for a greater loss.

we have the curious situation where people are willing to pay ever higher prices for a stock that has, so far, had ever greater losses.

economic slowdown? heck, Amazon needs an economic BOOM to start showing some profits.

good business model, not so good business.

I agree we have no impact on the market. 40% + is a lot more than I'm willing to bet on what has proven to be a very unpredictable speculation.
-EJ

J. Dines will be on business tonite

I own two junior gold stocks with exploration deals set up with majors and cash in the bank. I consider them to be QUALITY speculations.

My point: Both have doubled in price. The juniors are starting to come back. This is encouraging. Life after Bre-X is possible.

J. Dines will be on business news tonite that shudobeen.

Crude might not be such a bad idea. I don't expect it to do much for at least another month since I don't expect any bad winter storms for at least that long. Barring war, or unexpected economic strength somewhere, weather affects it. First winter and then the spring/summer travel season.

amazon has estimates of a 1998 loss of $1.65/share, your right they have yet to earn a dime, market cap of, dig this, $8.5 billion. They have had share turnover of $6 billion in the last 4 days!
Some estimate that the market cap per customer is $2000, thats a hefty premium regardless of potential growth.

I am using amzn as my premier leading indicator of the bubble,
next is beanie babies!!

If indeed banks have some bad news to hide, then two indications I'd look for are 1 ) hints in Q10 filings and 2 ) reticence. Banking stocks have made a comeback lately. If after a fiasco it looks to stockholders as if the banks were before presenting a rosy picture, or even hiding an ugly picture, they are leaving themselves wide open for shareholder lawsuits.
-EJ

So how much banking news have we heard from the big banks lately?

http://www.skynews.co.uk/skynews/finance/story4.htm

but stocks go up...

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=93356

The market of course expects the net to mighty things for Amazon and for it to fullfill the expectations. Like say, Microsoft.

But Amazon is just a bookseller. They don't make inovative technology, either hardware or software, nor do they have a cure for cancer or a better Viagra.

Already Barnes and Noble among others are getting more strongly into the business. Major competition in the bookselling-on-the-net sector will divide the earnings among ALL the participants and not just Amazon.

Thus will die the high apple pie in the sky hopes.

from http://www.pennaluna.com

http://www.pennaluna.com/prospector/story15.html

put another way amazon has a market cap of $34 per American

I think this is a terrific idea, a minute by minute POG indicator on CNBC
we should all e-mail our request to them, it only takes a couple of minutes, let's do it
l_g

SWG on the Toronto stock exchange, oh what a beautiful moooooorning
l_b

CNBC is more likely to run a live quote for cod liver oil futures
than gold

hey , C.C I love your magazine, thank you
l_b

SWG is one of the two juniors. The other is QTR.

11:24 FED SURVEY: MANY BANKS REDUCING LENDING TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
11:23 FED SURVEY SAYS BROAD TIGHTENING OF BUSINESS LENDING PRACTICES -- DOW.

FWIW sold 22 1/2

it is easy to try, never give up, the world would have no Kentucky Fried Chicken if Colonel Sanders would have given up after his 1000 + ( !!!! ) to sell his recipe.
......away to send my request to CNBC
l_b ( getting militant about the POG, now )

gollum - good argument regarding AMZN. the DELL crowd also have yet to realize that all that DELL has is a first step in in successful web marketing. it won't be long before Compaq, Gateway and who-have-you all move to share this lucrative made-to-order market. ( btw, www.egghead.com is now a fully web-only computie dealer )

cooljing - AMZN is $34 per US citizen but what about INKT, YHOO, TGLO, GCTY, EBAY, LCOS, XCIT, KTEL?

-- there's too many search engines for the market ( just think, how many search engines do you check daily... ) ... and the total market cap of these 9 shares exceeds GM ...


if they smell like tulips, they must be tulips.

i agree the market could be depressed for some weeks.

how long does it take for the option writers to factor in a lower volatility? ( i like the idea of cheaper calls )

Deutsche Bank upgraded Glamis Gold Ltd. from neutral to outperform.

Bear Stearns initiates coverage on Freeport-McMoRan with initial recommendation of attractive.

First time I've seen two gold companies with positive recs in one day.

note how this company's stock went skywards today on news that it was gonna use the Internet for business

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=INTO&d=1ym

Bart, what say you? can we all get pre-IPO stock prices? we'll have to act fast to get in on the mania b4 it ends ...

It has been brought to our attention that this site, among many others, has been discussing "marshal [sic]law." The correct spelling of the term used to describe the law administered by military forces is "martial law." Marshal law is the law administered by civilian forces, e.g. Marshal Matt Dillon.

Thank you for your cooperation.

We now return you to your regular programming.

THE GRAMMAR POLICE

tried to find it on there web page, no such luck! Does anyone have there e-mail address ?
Thank you

FWIW Short 22 7/16

Like a rock gold to follow

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1030005004127001&sort=postdate

this guy suggests that the rate is OVERestimated. hmm....

more negative.

tequila. where's my drink?

http://www.cnbc.com

Try the "Feedback" link at the bottom of the
page...

They don't have a category for under 1%.
I've got more invested in canned meat than I do in Gold.
And more invested in dry spaghetti & macaroni than I have in Silver.
But if bad goes to worse at least I can eat for a few years.

This dudes going down.

Try info@cnbc.com

Tyro-- when a felon who couldn't vote or own a firearm
wields cruise missiles...that's martian law....

And we're left in the loving hands of those caring guys in NY.

not much in my book,only kidding,lighten up,nothing personal but common man get a life!how about something with a little substance or humor or?AWALWP ( anything with a little worth please ) again nothing personal anybody who knows me will tell you I'm kind of a jerk!ha

hahahaha...

a must read

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981121/world/world4.html

You suppose the goblin will make visit?

I don't know. I haven't seen him for a long time. Back in the great gold carry days. If he shows up it will be very bad news. He usualyy shows up right after lunchtime in NY, say about one o'clock.

11:54 ISRAEL BOMBS SOUTHERN LEBNON FOR ATTACKS ON ISRAELI OUTPOSTS.
11:40 GREENSPAN: SAYS EURO MUST INHERIT BUNDESBANK'S CREDIBILITY.
11:38 GREENSPAN: EURO SUCCESS WILL REST ON ECB'S CREDIBILITY.
11:37 GREENSPAN: SAYS EMU BOND MARKET WON'T BE COMPARABLE TO U.S.
11:36 GREENSPAN: SAYS DOLLAR, EURO COMPETITION IS POSITIVE FOR BOTH.
11:35 GREENSPAN: MASSIVE FOREX INTERVENTION IS NOT FEASIBLE OR CREDIBLE.
11:34 GREENSPAN: SPEAKING TO EUROPEAN BANKING CONGRESS IN FRANKFURT.
11:34 GREENSPAN: SAYS THOUGHT THAT FOREX TARGET ZONES WORK IS AN ILLUSION.

http://www.tscn.com/wsc//Full_Stories.html?Button=Get+Story&headline=891115&template= http://www.wallstreetcity.com/news/template/TPL_headlines.asp

Sorry about the size of the URL : (

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 178.268 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 296.050 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 178.654 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 295.600 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9826 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9600 US Dollars

FWIW target 75

Yes, Virginia, there IS a Goblin, and he's coming back from lunch a little early today. I guess he's got a big weekend.

instead of a live gold quote on CNBC how about
live gollum and cyclist updates?

Hmmmm. . . sounds more like law-less.

where do you get live au and ag quotes?
tia

Well, Kitco is close to live for spot prices when it's working. There is also:

http://www.quoteline.com/astmete.asp

Which gives prices from overseas somewhere so there is a small adjustment to make.

Try this for Gold & Silver prices:

http://www.coin-universe.com/index.html

Johannesburg, Nov. 20 ( Bloomberg ) Canadian mining company Placer Dome Inc. is interested in making an investment in South Africa, Business Day said, citing company spokesman Hugh Leggatt. Placer Dome is looking to compete in the premier league of North American gold producers, an analyst said. Placer Dome is being connected with Western Areas Ltd. and could end up paying about 1.2 billion rand ( $212.8 million ) for 50 percent of Western Areas at current market prices, the paper said, citing no sources. Western areas said last month that its profit from gold in the three months ended Sept. 30 rose 6 percent to 186 million rand, while production rose 1.7 percent to 3,019 kilograms from 2,969 kilograms in the previous quarter.

Looks ready to break lower...

shame on me for not waiting to buy

for the last 10 years silver has always made these spikes down before moving higher

unless we're going to 4.20 this little move is a great buying opportunity

good chance given the weekly chart and the chart over the last 12 weeks that this move is bogus

look for silver to finish near unchanged or in top half of today's trading range

there is a hugely significant downtrend line drawn at the highs of 4/03, 7/24, 9/29. It stands at about 5.01 today. Any move through it--we've been skirting it since 10/29 and prematurely broke through once--will send us up .50 to 1.00 immediatelt. Strong recommendation to buy on a breakthrogh. If timid wait until breakout exceeds that of two previous breakthroughs-10c.

Russia wants new credits to repay IMF, World Bank

MOSCOW, Nov 20 ( Reuters ) - Russia hopes to borrow new money
from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the World Bank to
refinance debt to these and other international organisations, Deputy
Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said on Friday.

I guess now we either bounce or fall through the floor.

wants to put me on the table, Pine Top Perkins is playing the ivory, and I still have two rooms to paint and finish up with the tile...I can't return email for some unknown reason, at least to me...and it took me ten minutes to figure out when me Mumm said she was in the mood for mail/male she meant go to the Post Box...and fetch her letters...

Chin up, palms out...life is good...handed out more gold this morning...oh yeah and a hunk of platinum...

another Idea for live POG
http://www.bloomberg.com/@@SW3ybAYAAysHkyWs/welcome.html>http://www.bloomberg.com/@@SW3ybAYAAysHkyWs/welcome.html

Only one dictionary spelling.

Gold bounces off $295...higher lows...lower highs...crunch is just about with us...so far the "clever" ones have used each crunch for a $10-$20 drop...but this is the mother of all crunch tackles...something's gonna pop ( up? ) ....stock up lads could easily be the last time at these prices.

tic tic tic tic tic tic tic

Gotta pull this thing up - deflation is rattling our ship - it's up or down we go. XAU holding on to slimest of gains at 77.60.

But we haven't had the weekend selloff yet.

http://www.forex-cmc.co.uk/marketnews/euro.html

Oh no you mean we're going to crash through today's low yet???

Would be rather constructive for gold to hold above 296 but it dont look like it will.

Notice the VIX on the stock market got down to 22 today. Was as low as 16 on July 20th and as high as 60 near the stock market lows. Think I'm selling traditional equities today. Seems we are a bit over bought.

At least we can't say that about gold

Think of it as a great buying opportunity.

And maybe not so much of a crash through today's lows as an ease on down..

Just looked at the charts and their structural integrity starts to get stretched with lower closes. Silver has had it - its going further down -how much further I don't know. Gold's recent rally is starting to roll over. This thrust up to 300 has been weaker than the last and under 295 it looks to be in trouble. THE PGM metals are doing a correction thing today and we'll see if they can regain their composure next week.

The CRB is in the tank - under 200 cash I venture - deflation is thick.

I'm for a cup of coffee - maybe I'll feel better......

I've got it!! I'll go play the game of Greenspan and work the levers so as to achieve a soft landing.

For cooljing
Eggzactly ... Wes areas have one BIG resource ..
70 million oz .. WA has 92 million share and trades
now at about 22Rd .. thats $3.90 .. assume PDG has to
pay 30 % over the market makes $5.10 a share on 46 mill
shares or $235 mill $ for 35 mill oz .. that makes
less than 7 $/oz .. do I tell a lie ???
Compare that with ABX cost for Pierina of about
$150/oz that CC and I finally came close to settling
on. Pierina is very low cost .. maybe 50 $/oz but
Ive also seen 100 $/oz ( life of mine ) .. I would
imagine that South deeps cost will be somewhere
around 200 per oz or less .. But abx starts off 143$
per oz in the hole versus PDG and will be playing
catchup in the POG rises ..

Clipped, interesting euroland doesn't need competive devaluations.

"It should be noted that only 10% of Euroland countries GDP consist of trade outside that currency
zone and therefore however wildly the Euro fluctuates against the Dollar it will only have a
modest effect n the economy.

As the Euro zone will be running a joint current account surplus this means that countries across
the world are having to convert Dollars into Euro's to pay for their trading debts. This will
bolster the Euro to some degree.

Growth expectations of 2.8% for Euro zone are the highest globally which will tend to bolster the
Euro too."

FWIW covered short 22 3/16

If Placer really make that first entry in South Africa, it could be the beginning of a readjustment on SA gold stocks, especially if gold can stay above recent lows.

With these ridiculously low lease rates for Gold ( and silver for that matter ) , why not start a campaign of borrowing the CB's and lender's Gold but instead of selling it short....just hold on to it, enjoy it, wallow in it, worship it etc....
Once the Gold starts dissapearing from the lender's vaults they'll start to panic and will start raising the lease rates. That will in turn panic the the shorts and they will scramble to buy back the Gold they shorted but they will find nobody willing to sell it to them. With a little discipline we can drive the price to the moon in a very short time and cash in our own investments at great profits while holding on to our leased Gold hoard.
This will in effect break the backs of the short-sellers and teach the lenders a hard lesson at the same time, as they will loose a large portion of their Gold due to short defaults. When the slaughter is done, we simply return the Gold we hoarded and enjoyed back to the ruined lenders, give them a taste of their own medicine so to speak.

went long for the same fill

ALMOST one-fifth of SA chartered accountants are living and working overseas and up to 80% of these may have emigrated permanently.

Of a total of 17591 SA chartered accountants ( CAs ) belonging to the SA Institute of Chartered Accountants ( Saica ) , 3297 are absentee members - living and working overseas. The institute could not say whether the accountants overseas had emigrated because "they do not tell us". All SA CAs are members of Saica.

Chrisophilos, if they'd let a clown like me borrow gold at those
rates I'd hace been there and done that.

CC/John Disney, agreed that once you factor in acquisition costs the
reality of some of these 'great deals' diminishes. You also have to
wonder about ABX accounting, capital costs, financing, hedges, cash
costs; the magic they spin behind those numbers probably would put
LTCM to shame ( or is it sham? ) .

What quality are the WA reserves? if you know off hand I'd appreciate
your assesment.

There. How's that for a soft landing?

makes monday in aussie interesting....more buybacks?

Good job - I think I saw Dec Gold close at 296.10

Is there anyone here interested in 1 ounce Platinum Maples or Eagles at $380.00 each? I have 87 available. If so e-mail me at: air@2air-inc.com

Wait to manage the levers, Gollum...

gold from falling below 296 close.

And that puts everything right smack on the lower support lines which will add interest to all the long weekend discussions and chart analyzing.

The CRB is below 200 AGAIN, bonds are ralling above 128 or at 5.2%, the dollar is firming at 95+ in the dollar index,leading stock indexes are within 5% of their all time highs...gold is holding on to its ledge by its fingernails and we are bullish gold negative stocks.???

Tlak about contrarian thinking... I think its just nonconformist.

Gold price: from the charts and price action it looks to me like
we have one more down leg to $290. Now we could have a failure or
could go a dollar lower. NO one knows. But it should not last past
mid December. Like Gollum said, it just ain't got it this time.

SA gold stocks: It will be interesting to see what happens if
PDG goes after Western Areas. Who in their right mind would sell
Western Areas if the figures Disney gives are correct for a 30% premium.
I think Placer Dome is engaging in wishful thinking.

DROOY has stated that it has a total of 142 million oz in proven and
inferred reserves. It sells for $3. If ABX ever made an offer for it
I would expect DROOY to surprize everyone and go to a premium over the
price of ABX by at least 30%. This would be a stock price of about $30.

No way is anyone going to sell reservers in the ground for $1 to $2
an oz. That is why no NA gold has had the nerve to make an offer for
a SA stock. Once people really saw what was going on the SA would
likely end up taking over the NA bidder!!!

I would expect the same for Western Areas. Instant revaluaton by the
market place and then Placer backs off.


Thanks, GD

FWIW closed out at 22 3/16 have a nice weekend

To all ..
There are two ways of investing in gold properties
buying cheap areas with higher cost gold ( Harmony )
buy expensive areas with low cost gold ( Abx ) ...

the question of which strategy is better is
interesting ..

lets take two cases .. buy at 5$/oz gold with an
AVERAGE cost of 250 $/oz
buy 150 $/oz gold with an AVERAGE cost of 150
$/oz .. ( Im being generous ) ..

with gold at 300$/oz the profit is ( 300 - 250 ) /5
or 10$ per dollar invested for cheap gold
... and ( 300- 150 ) /150 or 1$ per dollar invested for
expensive gold ..

with gold at 250 .. the high cost mine shuts down
and the low cost mine makes 100/150 = $0.66/per
dollar invested ..

but point is that gold only has to stay 5$ above
average cost for the investment in the cheap high
cost mine to break even dollar for dollar with
the ABX style "going first class" mine.
ie ( 255-250 ) /5 = one $ per dollar
and ( 255 - 150 ) /150 = almost one $ per dollar.

with gold at 400$ the numbers are amazing ..
the Harmony approach gives ( 400 -250 ) /5 = $30 per $
and the ABX strategy gives ( 400-150 ) /150 = $1.6 per $

Now which one do you prefer ???
... If you think gold is so lousy that it will fall
below 250 then WHY WILL IT STOP THERE ?? WHY NOT
GO TO ZERO?? Why mine it at all ?? why buy a gold
mine .. buy an internet stock instead .. Do you
get my drift ..

could give strength back into POG. Then again, we Gold-bugs still
don't have the upper hand. We still have the fear instilled in us,
not the Gold Shorts.... ( fear....as in, Gold could fall right through
this current level of support and head back down to test the 290 area
again.

Fade in: Flat in Gloucestershire. Low Key/Victorian Decor/dolly shot
Mum are you remembering to feed the dog? I am sure he is HUNGRY. Try feeding him FOUR cups instead of TWO. Said the clerk to her aging mother in Connecticut. The clerk had just come back to Gloucestershire from her visit with her mother across the pond. She was calling awfully soon after the visit.

Cut: Four hours earlier, Traffic desk at Government Communications Headquarters located at Cheltenham
UK . The clerk is holding the fax decrypt of the Rhyolite line-of-sight microwave intercept. I sure glad hes using his FINANCE grade STU III she thought to herself. Then she giggled to herself as she remembered a little ditty from Shakespeare; Whos guarding the guards?

Cut: intercept transcription printout in clerks hands. Visual/noshake/18pt bold font
Phase II unintelligible  POTUS treatments continues  unintelligible 
Phase III complete; Miners productivity lowered to threshold levels using proscribed methods; withhold of wages, no pension payments, devaluation of currency.
Phase IV in progress; ecological subterfuge plan nominal. Kyoto Protocol signed.
Phase V in progress; Oil deflation prices on schedule.
Phase VI in progress; unintelligible  impeachment hearings  unintelligible

Cut back to flat  normal time.
Now mum. Feed the dog right NOW.
Fade.

Fade in: Grounds of Naval Observatory on Massachusetts Ave. Slow pan. Foley note: leaves of November blowing in the cold breeze.

Cut: Close up of arm, shirtsleeve being cuffed and pushed above bicep.

Cut: Close up of vial of EDTA chelation drug. Syringe needle inserted into vial, drawn and air bubble expended.

Doc Ive been thinking about the long term effects of this stuff. Tip says Ive been acting extra frisky lately. Are you sure youre not just juicing HIM with vitamin V?

Sir. Dont worry. He has been receiving his treatment since way before the clinical trials. We knew of the physical effects of Nitrous compounds in the early fifties. He had a psychological profile for going outside of his marriage for "some" and he has been stepping on it ever since 78.

Thanks doc. That stiff wooden feeling is fading now. I can feel my real self returning to normal. It is amazing what you guys can do.

Sir, theres really nothing to it. In the morning we give you a low level dosage of Curare which depresses your central nervous system just enough to make you look stone cold. You know, like a real rock hard dolt. Err, no offense sir. Then this stuff cleans you up for the evening. You should have seen the stuff we used on KennedyAnd if I may say so, you really gave them hell in Malaysia.

Cut: Desk in adjoining office - Close up of open Top Secret folder code-named Catalyst. Visual/noshake/18pt bold font
Estimated number of diesel vehicles/power generation plants in US 600,000
Estimated average number of grams of catalyst needed per converter 14 grams.
Total number of Troy ounces necessary to implement diesel vehicle catalytic converter environmental plan 270,000.

Fade to bedroom:
Al youre a genius. Well be rich you know. When we kick this joint well be stinking rich. But Im worried about HIM being in the way.
Dont worry. Remember when that Zappa fella was in your face during those hearings. Ole doc slipped him some modern chemistry to give him his little prostate problem. With all the money we channeled to AIDS research he didnt stand a chance. Well do the same for our little problem to hedge the impeachment outcome. Either way Ill get to enact my Environmental Executive Orders soon enough.

Cut to little stone cottage in Connecticut  Close-up of Earl Grey in a fine china cup.
I dont care about the Carrying Charge sonny.  muffled unintelligible voice on the return end
I dont care that this is highly irregular Ill eat the CIF! Now I want my product!  hangs up phone.
Little whippersnapper. Ill show him.

Cut to Nymex Exchange Settlement Committee  Fancy wood paneling  Lalique crystal water glasses on Ebony wood table.
She actually wants to take delivery of FOUR thousand ounces of Platinum!
But sir, nobody actually takes deliveryWith deflation and industrial slow down who would want the stuff?
I wonder if she knows somethingnah, probably just Alzheimers.
But sir, what about the OTHER large shipment to Tennessee last week?

Cut back to little stone cottage in Connecticut  Backyard  snow covered December  dog howling in the distance.
Those insufferable dogs getting into the garbage again.
I hate those miserable creatures.
Sure am glad I dont own one

For Cage Rattler ..
losing a fifth of RSA's accountants is a good first
step .. now if we could just lose half of our lawyers.

Buy an internet stock - now that was a good idea.

Venezuela reversing prodction cuts....look out below oil.

Thanks for the analysis on ABX vs HGMCY - now if we could only get your ideas on CNBC.

Yesterday, when buying lunch at a street vendor cart, I tried to trade a beat-up Franklin ( 1958-90%silver ) half dollar for two burritos, cost $2.50. The street vendor ( hispanic,little English spoken ) didn't even recognize the coin. His partner, who spoke English well, offered me face value. He said if it were in nice shape he might give me a dollar for it! So sad. I'll keep it in my pocket. The coin makes a nice ringing sound when flipped or dropped.

GREENSPAN BLEW IT
By JOHN CRUDELE
--------------------------------------------------------
WHEN the Federal Reserve began cutting borrowing costs back in October, the rate on 30-year government bonds was about 4.75 percent. And you could get a 30-year mortgage for around 6.6 percent.

Today - after three attempts by the Fed to CUT rates - that same government bond carries an interest rate of around 5.25 percent. And mortgages are now a quarter point higher than they were back then.

Higher - as in, it's costing you and the government more to borrow money.

Those higher rates will do exactly the opposite of what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had hoped. They will reduce economic activity. And if the trend continues much longer, these higher rates will cause people to borrow less for houses and will cause Washington to pay more to continue its deficit ( yes, deficit ) spending.

I said a few columns back that Greenspan would only reduce interest rates this week if he's lost his mind. He did ( cut rates ) and he apparently has ( lost his mind. )

Even the stock market couldn't rejoice over the Fed's latest action, which was very aggressive compared to the previous rate cut because both the federal funds rate ( the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans ) and the discount rate ( for loans directly from the Fed ) were reduced by a quarter point.

Stock prices, of course, have been rising steadily over the past few weeks, regaining most of the 20 percent loss of weeks past. The rate cuts from the Fed have managed to reinstall the "irrational exuberance" that Greenspan pretended he wanted to go away.

Because of the Fed's stunning move on interest rates and its less-noticed action in sharply ( some might say irresponsibly ) boosting the nation's money supply, Greenspan has made himself responsible for whatever happens next to the stock market.

He will be a hero if the market is saved and the country prospers. And he will be the villain if - as I think will happen - the bubble bursts more violently than it did a few months ago.

Keep a close eye on the bond market and the dollar for signs that a disaster is about to happen. So far neither of those is signaling the end of trouble.

Needless to say, interest rates should decline when the Fed cuts rates. The fact that long-term rates have risen is a clear sign that the financial markets are concerned about something.

Some of the concern is undoubtedly that the Fed has taken its eye off inflation. But more likely, bond prices fell ( and rates rose ) because investors are tapped out and they can either invest in one market or the other - stocks or bonds.

So when Greenspan revived the irrational exuberance in the stock market, he caused U.S. investors to ditch bonds for stocks. And bonds suffered.

But there's a more dangerous thing that could happen.

If the U.S. dollar continues its steep decline of recent months, foreign investors will join Americans in deserting the bond market. There have been signs recently that Japanese investors in large numbers are already exiting U.S. bonds.

The falling dollar plus losses in bond investments might be too much for foreigners to handle. And as this happens, bonds will fall more, rates will rise and the dollar will come under continued pressure.

And then the cycle will repeat - until it is out of control.

All because Alan Greenspan has lost his mind and decided that an irrationally exuberant stock market wasn't so bad after all.

http://nypostonline.com/business/6476.htm

The strategy of holding physical precious metals and cash versus paper certificates of ownership is worth considering.

But how do we get the rest of the world to see the truth of what
you say? Guess we will just have to wait for them to catch up. One
happy thought is that I have been able to buy a lot more over the
past year than I would have had the price gone up.

But we gold bugs have waited long enough. It is time to run the
shorts into bankruptsy and then bury them under 14,000 tons of
elephant droppings. See how they like that!!

Must go see my friend at the Zoo...

Thanks, Gold Dancer

to all ..
despite wide spread doom and gloom .. I think this
is the best close we've had in swiss and Dmarks since
August .. can someone confirm ??

Gold is Dead!

Ive been reading all the different philosophies on what it good for gold. My own conclusion is that very little is. Let me give you a few comparisons between some of the opinions expressed by some forum members, the events, and the actual results:

Opinion 1:Gold does best during periods of economic crisis.
Event: Weve had a world wide economic crisis for over a year.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

Opinion 2:A strong Yen is good for gold.
Event: The Yen improves against the dollar about 20%.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

Opinion 3:The bond market is too strong, when it weakens, gold will rise.
Event: The bond market weakens.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

Opinion 4:Gold moves in tangent with oil. When oil firms, so will gold.
Event: Oil moves up to almost $15 a barrel then drops to $12.15 ( 11/19 )
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range throughout between $290&300.

Opinion 5:Gold moves up during periods of political instability.
Event: Political instability throughout the world, to include the U.S.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

Opinion 6:When the U.S. stock market crashes, gold will skyrocket.
Event: U.S. market drops about 20%, then climbs about same amount.
Results: Gold pretty much in a tight range throughout between $290&300.

Opinion 7: A weaker dollar will result in a higher gold price.
Event: Dollar weakens against most major currencies.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

Opinion 8: Lower interest rates will be good for gold.
Event: Fed lowers interest rates 3 times.
Result: Gold pretty much in a tight range between $290 and $300.

I think the only two things remaining that are supposed to be good for gold are WW III and two-digit inflation. I dont know about you, but having served in two wars, I sure wouldnt want to see another one. Besides, I doubt the world as we know it would continue to exist after WW III. So forget about that option. Therefore, for those of us who have invested in gold for the loooooooong haul, lets hope for golds last remaining allied ( inflation ) to surface. I do believe that is our last option. And this goldbugs will be Opinion 9.

gold dancer ..
we just gotta wait for the poor slobs to
catch up .. what can I say ??

S&P and Dow will work their way higher into year end with only minor set backs.
XAU is holding above the 75 area and should continue on a closing basis.
Silver closed on the bottom of its weekly triangle, should open lower Monday and head down to 4.40 where it should be bought.
Gold ideally should drop to 277, if so buy it.

I'm still short silver from 5.13.

Of course, this can't be done by us poor Gold-bugs alone but don't forget, there are thousands of beaten-up juniors and intermediate producers and explorers out there, as well as major unhedged producers like NEM and Kinross that would greatly benefit from a rise in the POG. What an oportunity this would be for them to collude and drive up the POG just as the major producers like ABX and PDG and the hedge funds colluded and drove down the POG for their own benefit. It wouldn't take much of a spike in the POG to panic the shorts and start the ball rolling, especially if the borrowed Gold is kept out of the market. The shorts will scramble all over themselves to find the Gold to cover their sh*t-filled shorts. If this works as planned and the POG spikes up high enough, then it will also trigger the heavilly hedged producers and hedge funds to monetize......and then we rock&roll.

Yup. But there's always the next ray of hope over the goldbug's
horizon...the euro, the y2k thingie, the great short squeeze...

Still looks like in an upward move, no damage to the charts, very strong support down to 70 area, most of the good volumn has been to the buy side since Sept 1st. The Dec AU has been hanging in there above 294.50.
Any further weakness into late November would probably be contained. Looks to me like XAU continues up into middle of 1999. SPX 500 and DOW 30 are in the final 5th wave of the final top which could last until DEC 4th, The count of all of the waves appears to be finaly complete. The question now is will we see a final price higher than DOW 9338.
CoBra

David Faber see stock market top on 11/25 plus or minus two days. Will short at that time. Expects challenge of all time highs in the dow prior to peak - sidways market after 11/25 at best.

XAU fading - what did you do Gollumn go out for a powder.

"The recent movements of world share markets have contributed greatly to a growing sense of sheer global confusion. What often appears to be a normal correction is suddenly complicated thanks to the unwinding of massive arbitrage players within the hedge fund community and the likes of Long Term Capital Management. The investment houses have sent their hired guns out to talk up the market in a vain attempt to keep the business flowing. Others may have a hidden agenda of self-interest in hopes of bailing out or selling out at the top before somebody starts to sing...."

MORE:
http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/EUROLAND.HTM

That spot AU traded within the 17 squared plus or minus 17 ( 272 to 306 ) range?
Holy Toledo, well, at least it's consistent... ; )

DOW to new high next week? How about Wednesday at 11:45?
Gollum - I think the goblin only did a drive-by & waved.

a privelege...

put me down for a few tonnes!
What you propose is the opposite of what some producers have been
doing: selling forward into any rally, killing the upside, over
time you get stuck in a one-way, downward ratcheting price vortex.

Jims--I think you meant my favorite Jerry--Jerry Favors!!! And yes, JERRY IS GONNA' SELL THIS BLOATED PIG NEXT WEEK!!! Don't mess with Jer! Jerry Springer he ain't!!

Toledo,

I quite agree with you that gold's performance seems stillborn no matter what the conditions. Your catelogue identifies the analysis of many on this forum, including my own. Still, your have not covered all bases. Surely inflation represents one of the remaining hopes for gold, but I would suggest you also consider the coming of the euro. I still hold with David Malpess, a monetary economist, who believes that the euro will prove bullish for gold because European central banks will sell less gold on the open market. Rumors have it that they will sell to the European Central Bank to increase gold reserves which will be necessary when the bank wants to print more euro's, and to provide bullion for the proposed euro coin. Nevertheless, I have stopped awaiting the coming of the great gold bull market that, as some like Stephen Kaplan have claimed slouches near, is supposed to take the price of gold to $2000. I think playing the gold trading range represents the best for gold investors. Now that gold has found a bottom and has consolodated above $285, investors can make reasonably good money watching gold range from its bottom to its upper resistance.

And I agree his work is among the best. Sorry to see him at odds with our own APH who calls for continued stock market strenght into the year end.

Probably make a top around the 25th per Fabors or Favors then bounce around unless some thing fundlemental hits the markets, like an impeachment, Russia, Brazil . . gheez the list is getting shorter...
mayber Dow 10,000 before gold $315???

odds are getting better - right

Thanks for the direction. One thing I have learned while sizing up the Y2k situation is that I don't eat canned food anymore. I did for about 50 years but in the last 5 it has been all fresh or frozen. Time maybe to return to the "days of yesteryear" and do to it "frugally" : )

....Must be Friday.
Last minute of NYSE.....74,200 NEM........171,300 ABX

going up. Oh well, at least they don't have to worry about being audited over there.

No change in Comex gold stocks - WOLF

Comex silver stocks:

- TOTAL REGISTERED
32,330,775 0 76,473 -76,473 2,924,671 35,178,973
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
43,691,468 0 666,319 -666,319 -2,924,671 40,100,478
COMBINED TOTAL
76,022,243 0 742,792 -742,792 0 75,279,451


Fell 742,792 oz net but 2,924,671 ounces from eligible to registered which means someone covered that much short - must think its going up?!!

another IMF bailout. But what the heck! It's been at least 4 or 5 months since they last defaulted & there are still a few properties on the Cote
Azur that they have their eyes on.
If they get another bailout I'm going to join their game & max out all my plastic & lines of credit, dispose of all my assets, buy bullion, hide it & declare bankruptcy.
Who needs this sh!t of struggling with crooked mkts!

I just love torturing Gold-shorts ( and I know this site is heavily infested ) by planting the seeds of doubt and terror for them to ponder over a weekend.

Have a good weekend all.

Barton Biggs is another story. IMO, the smartest anlyst out there. He said today that we are still in a bear mkt & will at least test the old lows, if not go right through them.
He's too smart to get pinned down to a time, though. That's why I think my plan of averaging up with my shorts is the safest & best way to play the coming debacle. If I can only keep my nerve!

Excellent points, much clearer and superior to the erroneous and worn worn out arguments that gold has done nothing for close to 18 years. Or should they 19 years?

I will not put out my usual argument that we have gold manipulation, time may tell, and if not only god knows.

But in relation to the arguments that gold has done nothing for 18 years, one must consider that flutuations in gold prices have allowed for some nice profits for gold bulls who during those 18 years invested in gold equities, or who had good knowledge of paper gold, which I would not recommend for everyone.

Thanks for the straight forward reality check.

Yes, if the Russians get one more american tax payer dollar I'm going to to... to.... ??? I don't know what, but your line of action makes sense.

Keep your nerve averaging in shorts on this rally. I bet it'll go further than we think is even irrational, unfortunately, because I don't have the nerve to hold traditional equities - wall of worry just to steep here.

Notice that the VIX got down to 21.50 today, closed near there as well. It hit 16 at the July peak. Complacency may have a little further to run. Think at least a short term top is eminient.

Earlier in the day someone posted a site which had the gold/silver ratio numbers ( annual ) since 127X to present. Had a chance to plot it out. For 1272 to 1872 ( a good piece of time ) the prices were London, after this New York. Concentrating on the post-1872 numbers looks MUCH more volatile and MUCJ higher ratio numbers.

I see a number of interesting features to the chart.

1 ) There was a period of years from 1873 to about 1895 where silver was weakening gradually and then at the end of that time sharply against gold.From 16 up to about 30 ( probably reflects mining production increase in the Americas ) .

2 ) A new band of numbers with lows at 30 and highs at 42 from 1895 to 1914 ( the beginning of WWI. During WWI silver strengthened against gold from a ratio of 42 to 16 in 1919, a number not seen since 1873.

3 ) During the period from 1919 to 1929 silver returned to its relative range 30 to 42 against gold.

4 ) Silver weakens drasticly and rapidly from 1929 to 1930 moving from 42 to 65 in one year. Peaks at 80 in 1932, revisits 62 in 1935 and climbs again to the weakest we see it at 100 average over the three year period 1939 through 1941.

5 ) During WWII silver drops from 100 to about 44 in 1946. A short weakeing in '47&48 followed by a steep decline ( strengthening in relationship to gold ) to 16 again in 1967. An interesting year which saw the peaking of the American stocks and subsequent decline into the tepid 70's.

6 ) We have a bounce from 16 ( in 1967 ) up to 42 ( in 1974 followed by a return to 16 in 1979. This was the silver market ploy effected by the Hunt Brothers. It didn't last very long, jumping ( weakening ) from 16 in 1979 to the high 40's in 1981.

7 ) Since then we see a steady channel running at about a 70 upward till the weakest in recent memory at 92 for the three year period 1989 through 1991. Since then silver has strengthened against gold, especially in the past two years ( because of gold's sell off and silvers return from the 3.25 area ) .

There appears to be a 48 to 50 year period between the peaks in 1940 and 1990 and the troughs in 1919 and 1967. The upward sweep is about 21 to 23 years the downward sweep 27 to 28 years. We have so far seen the upward sweep twice and the complete downward sweep once. If this hold true we then are in a down trend were silver is strengthening against gold and have been in this portion for 8 or 9 years now. We very well could see a ratio of 16 to 1 again as we have seen in 1919, 1967 and 1979.

This is a very LONG term chart. It does not take into account a currency pricing but rather the ratio of trade one ounce of gold for xx ounces of silver.

FWIW

One might use this broadly in a multi-decade buy and hold strategy, trading gold for silver when silver is weak and reversing when gold is weak. We are in the middle of a downtrend or strengthening of silver and at 59 going down to 16 or so in a 15 or 20 year period, could successfully gain 360% buying back into gold from this point into 2015-20 timeframe. I would see this as useful for building up advantage trading metal for metal to accumulate metal over a period of time with an eye for when turnign points and trend occure in very long timeframes.

Another interesting point is that silver strengthens against gold drasticly during large wars. WWI gaining 260% and WWII gaining 240% in relatively short periods of time ( 3 to 5 years ) .

The return trip seems to happen when prosperous times abound, sil;ver weakens against gold. In this case moving moving 800% from 1919 to 1932, and 575% from 1979 to 1990. This would be accomplished by holding gold while silver weakened and then trading gold for silver at silvers weakest points.

All disclaimers apply, including the fact that you might not be around tomorrow. Nothing to obsess over here, just past performance .. for which you would have to be very patient to exploit.

BBML

Toledo,
Your 8 points plus one constitute one of the most concise explanations of what is wrong with the precious metals. It is close to impossible for all of these positive forces to be negated during an extensive period of time. There is no doubt there is manipulation, the gold/silver markets are so small compared to paper markets they are controllable. The CB's may not have the majority of gold extant ( then again, we'll never know willl we? ) but they constitute a unified market force versus beaten down mining industry and individuals who are powerless because they cannot be unified as a market force when all the money is being made elsewhere.
I remember 3-2-5.
I remember the July 4th 1997 holiday here in US watching POG and my gold stocks taking it on the chin from Australia's sale, simultaneous with the outbreak of Asian Flu, while I sat helpless with other traders over the three day holiday. I remember Oct 15 1998, covering all my stock and index shorts MINUTES before AL shot the shorts with the surprise cuts right after options close ( didn't get me that time AL:- ) ) . The instances of manipulation, or should I say control, are too many to waste bandwidth on.
The thing we should look at is WHY??? The only THING that makes any sense is the EURO being rolled out. I must agree with the Voyeur Professor. There is so much paper and derivatives money tied up in the successful launch of the Euro ( remember EU nation have a GDP = to or greater than the US ) that it will control whatever is a threat. The US and Japan are competitors to the EU but also realize that there is much more profit and prosperity available with a policy of collusion vs collision. The allies of the US will be given a chance to launch their EMU, and then perhaps the games will begin. Gold is in a straitjacket of papered interests, held close by their sheer volume. But when the Euro is kicked out of the nest to fly, gold may be free to soar.
The paradigms of world finance will change at least, hedges will be changed, the NWO will be one step closer, and withal the chances for missteps by the New Master of the Universe will, perhaps, increase to match the gravity of their wagers.
God and Gold are not "dead", both can be ignored for a long time, but not without risk.

http://www.bank.lv/naudas/english/index.html

click on 100 lats when your there. It's worth it!

before the US Government admits Y2K will more than a "bump in the road".
Come to think of it.
When the cities burn and thus they become hell, then January storms freeze them over, THAT will be when the USG finally admits we have a major national problem.
BTW - Just reported in the Rocky Mountain News: The mayor of Denver has ordered no vacations, leaves, etc. for January through April of 2000 for fire, police and all other essential city government personnel.
Other than fire, police, water and sanitation - what constitutes "essential government personnel"

P.S. Przytula,
What does a "super-sized McDonald's Big Mac Value Meal cost?
I have not been to a McDonald's in six or seven years. There are none in this town and I don't go traveling.

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.94. The 233 day moving average is 29.04

XAU/Spot Ratio = .260. The 233 day moving average is .249

http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/goldbug.html

A honest buck is not worth a buck anymore.

I say if those crooked b@#4tards at IMF and Fed can bail out there buddies and lecherous hang-ons then why not? The whole game is rigged in their favour.
Plan of Action:
i ) Open up all available credit lines due to stellar credit record.

ii ) Max out all loaning capability including expensive SUV on 0 down 0.9% interest ( sell for cash ) and buy as much bullion as possible.

iii ) Go to New Zealand and buy a small farm with fishing boat. for cash.

iv ) Get remote comms. link and laptop for kitco fixes.

I can definately relate to your frustration. It's kind of ironic when you look back through history and how civilization as we know it today was formed around the basic human emotion of greed.

Just think of all the men that died; all the people who were killed; all the civilizations that went to war; all the time, effort, and money; all the hopes and dreams that were never realized; all because of gold. From Egypt to Europe to the America's. From Mexico to the Virgin Islands to Florida to California; everywhere from here to there.

All for what? $295 Gold?!! PLEASE!

If all those people could spend one day logged on to Kitco, they would all say the same thing . . .

"We were wrong and misguided in our pursuits. We should have focused all our time, effort, and money on the next big internet stock."

It's kind of ironic.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981120/19.html

Yowser!!!..large Mister...large...woof...

Funny how the good professor tries to twist Bryant's bimetallism argument into a condemnation against money with REAL backing now isn't it?

Here's the two urls again.
They are working fine.
-----
THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT GOING TO STAND BY AND LET Y2K HAPPEN

http://www.y2kchaos.com/s35p566.htm

---------------------
Big Brother and YOUR Bank Account

http://www.vvm.com/~ctomlin/a63.htm

HEY!!!!! Just yesterday a guy I know said he was considering doing something very, very similar to what you suggest. What could steller credit get someone...........50 or 60 K and walk.. Let them come take back the SUV and the Jewelry.
Sounds like last resort stuff to me.

Late 1800's when Gold was $20.67 an ounce, an east coast house & lot were $1,000 and factory wages were $1 a day ( boom town gold miners made $3 per 12-hour shift}. ...from the book "Leadville, A Miner's Epic" by Steve Voynick, 1984

So where does that put Gold's value today?

Explaining why the Fed decided that $500 per family was a reasonable amount, Clyde Farnsworth, the Fed's director of payment systems, said that's an amount that would allow most families to purchase basic necessities over a period of a few days.

By ALEJANDRO BODIPO-MEMBA
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- The year 2000 may bring technological chaos, but the Federal Reserve
Board wants to make sure that whatever happens, Americans will be able to buy groceries in
the new millennium.

The central bank has ordered an additional $50 billion of new currency to pump into circulation
in case consumers make a run on their banks and automated teller machines. The Fed
technically issues all U.S. currency, but it buys the bills from the Treasury's Bureau of
Printing and Engraving

Some experts warn of massive computer failures because programmers of the 1960s and
1970s economized in their code-writing by abbreviating the years in two digits rather than
four. Most older computer systems, therefore, read "98" as 1998. When the clock strikes
midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, systems will interpret the date as 1900 and could shut down in
confusion.

The Y2K glitch, as it is known, can be solved with a
time-consuming amount of reprogramming, and many
companies and banks have only recently begun to do just
that. But the Fed figures that many Americans, worried
that their automatic teller machines may freeze,
nevertheless will load up on cash at the end of next year.

Figure of $500 Per Family

The Fed says $500 per family is a "reasonable estimate" for what might be necessary for
consumers to buy essentials in the event of a computer crisis. With 100 million American
households, that works out to $50 billion. The U.S. economy has about $460 billion of
currency in circulation, and another $150 billion in vaults. The extra $50 billion in currency is
scheduled to be ready by the end of September 1999.

"We have extensive plans for currency," said Federal Reserve Gov. Edward W. Kelley, Jr.
"We are preparing to be able to provide whatever is demanded."

Explaining why the Fed decided that $500 per family was a reasonable amount, Clyde
Farnsworth, the Fed's director of payment systems, said that's an amount that would allow
most families to purchase basic necessities over a period of a few days. "We really don't
expect that many individuals will be interested in cashing out of their interest-earning accounts
to buy cars or anything," he said.

As part of the plan to prevent a consumer panic, the Fed intends to make sure all of its banks
have sufficient cash inventories. Money will be available at all of the district banks, and the
Fed has contracts with armored carriers to move currency around the country on short notice.
Additional inventories are stored at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington,
D.C., and Fort Worth, Texas.

Temporary Cash Infusion

The Fed is familiar with scenarios in which temporary infusions of cash are needed. When
natural disasters hit areas of the U.S., the central bank prepares cash shipments to provide the
extra currency that will be needed by people for basic needs, cleanup and repair. When
Hurricane Georges was threatening the Florida coast in September, extra currency was shipped
to Fed vaults in Miami several days before the storm hit. In Puerto Rico, planes were chartered
to fly in cash to the island.

Some public concern over the potential financial gridlock is being heightened by evangelical
religious groups that consider the end of the millennium as a sign of dire biblical prophecy,
according to some computer experts. For example, Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting
Network has an Internet site that purports to give readers guidance on how to deal with the
potential breakdown of society, as a result of the Y2K issue. However, it isn't clear how many
people are actually heeding the message.

"This is such a massive effort and a lot of the things we are doing is to try and stop this idea of
a doomsday occurrence," says Gov. Kelley. "But in the case of depository institutions, we are
guardedly optimistic that any such disruptions will be able to be overcome."

Six months ago if one suggested to a friend that fears of banking problems caused by Y2K might cause a bank run, the friend usually tilted his head as like a dog hearing a whistle, uncomprehending. Today the front page of the Wall Street Journal runs an article explaining what the Fed plans to do to head off possible Y2K inspired bank runs.

So the idea has quickly gained a lot of currency, if you'll excuse the pun.

The Fed does itself a disservice when making statements that are not credible, such as, "We are preparing to be able to provide whatever is demanded."

That's not possible. $500 per person is possible, but not enough.
-EJ

``Investors are running out of new stories to justify the stock market's high levels,'' said John Geraghty of North
American Equity Services, a consulting firm.

``Some times, the market itself needs a story and now that there's basically been no change in the economic news,
people are starting to depend on cyclical data, charts, technical analysis or anything that they can cling to, to justify
what they're doing in the market,'' he said.

The Dow index has been powering higher since hitting bottom on Aug. 31 at 7,500. It stands just a couple of hundred
points below its July 17 record high of 9,337.97.

The rally has been propelled by a shift by investors from the ultra-safe money and bond funds to take more risk in
stocks.

Market watchers say that barring an unexpected shock, the tremendous recovery in stocks could last for some time.

One reason is that bull markets tend to run longer because they rise gradually and need a continuous infusion of fresh
cash.

Also, bull markets are self-fulfilling prophecies -- the more profits investors make in rising markets, the more cash
they put back in and the higher the markets go.

On the other hand, bear markets are short-lived and intense because they are a function of mistakes as investors rush
to get out at any price.

Will this be the 'Rally to Remember,' or the 'Rally to Forget.'? Stay tuned.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981120/bik.html

The professor also does not mention that the store of value function of gold serves a second purpose that is critical to our system. That is the creation of capital through savings. As only a fool would save a depreciating currency there can be no true capitalism. If you want capital for a business now you must place your order with the local bank and they will have it printed to order. They become your partner even if you did not want a partner. Not much different than the Mafia protection racket. Buy their insurance or they put you out of business, those are the choices.

"Only a fool would save a depreciating currency".

How can you have capitalism without an accountable capital base?

Economics is truly a dismal science, with woolly heads like these as their leading lights.

This will be a 2 parter.
1. Where do you see POG in July 1999?
2. Where do you see DOW in July 1999?
3. Rank Y2K effect in July of 1999 on a scale of 1 -5. 1 being still not a mainstream public concern, 3 being open and honest talk in the media on the problem, and 5 being the beginnings of social breakdown.

I will go first.
POG - 365
DOW - 7200
Y2K - 2.5

http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/EUROLAND.HTM

310, 5700, 1

I'll be kicking back with my toes in golden sand.....my last resort.

Aragon III; is that Lat 100 coin legal tender? it doesn't say anywhere on the site.
Could it be that Poland and Baltic states are gearing up for a golden anchor in their currencies also? To integrate with the euro and all that.
Seems interesting it is Ls 100 and 16.2 grams ( 0.521 troy ounce ) Hmmm I wonder what the chances are of 100 euro gold coin being 16.2 grams fine?naahhh.

POG 370.00
DOW 6400.00
Y2K 3.0

and other MASTERS of THE Vintage....o'studio had the greatest thrill and privilege to speak today with Mr. Barney Kessel...one the four greatest jazz guitarists of all time. Barney was one our country's three annointed Ambassadors of Jazz during this century.... the first being Louis Armstrong, the second being Barney and the third being Dizzie Gillespie. He is recovering from a stroke that has disabled him from playing....but he's feelin' better for sure. Seems there may be some unreleased material, not heard in his forty albums or over 150 collaborative lp's, that just may need hearin'. yes.

Greatest GulpOs y PuffOs to Mr. Barney Kessel!!!! y ustedes!!!

http://www.allmusic.com/cg/x.exe?p=amg&sql=B6889

Each Friday I have been printing the weekly 5-minute chart of the xau from PHLX FastQuote, but today Netscape seems to have changed its setup and I can't find this chart . I would appreciate any help.

Strategy Advisory
November 17, 1998

Fed Cuts Discount Rate and Fed Fund Rate 0.25%

Today the much awaited Federal Reserve Board meeting took place. For the past two weeks trading in the stock market has been light, but on the bullish side. No one wanted to commit themselves too heavily. The Fed could have made another colossal mistake by not lowering rates, ignoring market forces.

As we know now, the Federal Reserve cut both the Discount rate and the Fed Funds rate 0.25% today. I think this is significant, because it also included the Discount rate cut. If the members of the committee had been hesitant about lowering rates, they would have cut the Fed Funds rate but left the Discount rate alone. By cutting the Discount rate, they can cut the Fed Funds rate again very easily in the future.

Investors should not get the impression that the Fed is leading. Theyre still far behind the market. Short-term market rates are below 4%, and the Fed Funds rate is now at 4.75%. Theres still a huge difference. Normally the Fed Funds rate would be below market rates.

Im very optimistic now, as it appears that the Federal Reserve has caught a glimpse of reality. Three interest rate cuts in less than two months is unprecedented.

Liquidity has not yet fully returned to the financial system. There are still many sectors such as REITs finding it difficult to get financing. The Federal Reserves steps today will help greatly in restoring that liquidity. Once the markets return to normal, they will more easily be able to handle future crises, such as Latin America, Russia, and some of the Asian countries, which may emerge again next year. The monetary authorities of the world are working together to plug up the holes. The $42 billion loan package to Brazil, Japans cut in tax rates ( although insufficient ) , and numerous interest rate cuts throughout Europe, all point to a return towards stability, at least for a while.

Since early 1997 when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates Ive made the point that the damage done by excessively high interest rates is not seen immediately. Its a long-term hollowing out process. Companies will borrow at 10% interest rates, because they want to expand. But in an inflation environment of 1%-2%, that rate is much too high. The return on investment of many projects will probably be lower than the rate of interest, thus making the investment a loser. But most small and middle-sized companies dont think in those terms. They want the money to expand, no matter what the cost. The damage is seen down the road when suddenly they see profits turning to losses because the debt service is too high.



So whats ahead?

The old high in the Dow Industrials of 9,311 is the next big obstacle for the market. I believe its almost inevitable that the market will have a pullback from there. That may even include one scary day to the downside.

But instead of being scared out of the market during such an event, it should be used by investors to add to positions. Although I had doubted it one month ago, I now believe that there is a good chance for the Dow Industrials to make a new record high before year-end. That would be amazing. Remember Treasury Secretary Rubin just six weeks ago called it the worst world-wide financial crisis in 40 years.

From now on, negative economic events will actually be bullish for the market, as it will assure a continued loose monetary policy. We need not fear inflation because of the huge supply of cheap products coming from Asia in the near future.

Neither do we need to fear labor cost pressures in the U.S., as U.S. manufacturing is now reducing its payrolls by an average of 50,000 per month. The Asian competition is getting to them. And the slack will not be totally absorbed by the service sector.

In the stock market youll have to be very choosy about the sectors you invest in. Some sectors will do poorly when they become overvalued based on future earnings. Other sectors will do exceedingly well because of bright growth prospects. And others may see a mania because no one knows what the growth will be ( as in internet ) .

I believe we are nicely positioned in our Private Portfolios. Theyve done exceedingly well since the bottom last month, and of course for the entire year. Wasnt it more comfortable to get out before the crash and then reinvest at the bottom? Of course, Wall Street will tell you that timing does not work.

The bulls are in charge again. And the Federal Reserve is at their side.

I wish you a wonderful evening,

Bert Dohmen
http://www.dohmencapital.com/
he has a free weekly update in Real Audio

POG 400+
DOW 6000
Y2K 3.5

Less than 5 billion to go to reach the debt limit?

...So happy days are supposedly here again eh? Sorry, I just don't swallow it... There is too much going on that interest rate cuts by the Fed won't really help. Japan dropped their rates to practically zero and has been shoveling money into the economy via stimulus packages and look where they are now. The massive debt leverage that we 'enjoy' now enables these rate cuts to have a greater effect than otherwise, but what happens when you reach zero percent??? You don't dare raise rates to fight asset, wage, or price inflation for the very same reason. The leverage will kill the economy. Greenspan and company are painting themselves into a nice tiny corner. No, Mr. Dohmen, I don't buy your sunny optimism. Let's see what happens when-perhaps because of Y2K-you, along with all the other Internet stock-loving yuppies, tries to cash in your chips. Profits are only real when they are in your hands.

What's a mere billion or two between friends ?!

Try http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/indext.htx?source=htx/http2_mw for XAU

the illustrious COmpGeek of las vegas...a fine bassist of the highly repute...yes, that has hung up his ol' doghouse ( stand-up ) for one of 'dem der' short scale electrified bass axes. ( puffO ) Salud!!! to YA!!!

Price of Gold - 365
A steady rally in gold will ensue after the new year dawns - standard gold bug theory

Level of DOW 8400
After a peak around - 9950 sometime between mid december and mid January, lower earnings and investment away from the US will find the stock market declining into mid year. The large caps will hold up better than their smaller brothers.

Level of anxiety of Y2K - 2.5
Y2K will be on of the reasons behind the stock market decline. Anxiety will build through the year but in the end prove to be only slightly disruptive. The anxiety in anticipation will be worse than the fact - I hope for certainly I don't know. What worries me is that people more educated in this arena seem to have the greatest fears.

I am kind of curious as to what all of you thought of the Ken Star testimony. I felt like a very decent man was taking abuse from his lessers which he should not have been required to accept. After all Clinton and Clinton's attorney general appointed him to do a job and became shocked when he actually took his job seriously. I find myself in the 30% or so who still would like to see his sorry supercilious butt thrown out of office. As for POG in 1999 my crystal balls see $375 by June. At about that time I see DOW at 5,700. The markets continue to hammer us poor old gold bugs. I hope that we live long enough to say I told you so.

5,950B is debt limit, 1/2tril or so to go.

I see Japan bandying about 30T yen for this, 100T yen
for that. 100T is .1Q. Besides M's, B's, T's expect to see
"Q" creeping into usage for quadrillion or a thousand trillion.
If things like the Brazilian real or Russian ruble weren't
routinely lopping off zeroes by the three Q would already be
used for GDP, etc.

Tortfeasor-- saw most of the testimony, trying to forget.

I watched vitually the entire judicial committee "hearing" and I will say this of Mr. Starr: If Kenneth Starr says he's an 'merkan, then, by God, so am I. He singularly restored hope in my heart for the 'merkan justice dept....and, this is true, I stood up in front of my TV and applauded him and the ideals he holds dear and...at the end of his words I broke down and wept great tears of pride. nuff said. May the gods bless this man'O'men, Kenneth Starr and his loved ones....bbl. ( maybe )

Very demonstrative of you. I would love to have seen than patriotic demonstration in front of your set. Nicely said.

"Im very optimistic now, as it appears that the Federal Reserve has caught a glimpse of reality. Three interest rate cuts in less than two months is unprecedented."

Really? How about 1971: 5 rate cuts in January alone.

DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
DATE CHANGE NEW LEVEL CHANGE NEW LEVEL/RANGE

1971

January 7 -0.25 5 1/4
January 8 -0.25 4 1/2
January 12 -0.25 4 1/4
January 18-22 -0.25 5
late January -0.25 4
early February -0.25 3 3/4
February 12-19 -0.25 4 3/4
February 19 -0.25 3 1/2
March to early July gradual increase 5 to 5 1/2
early July 0 to -1/4 5 to 5 1/4
July 15-16 0.25 5 0 to 1/4 5 to 5 1/2
mid August +1/2 to 1/4 5 1/2 to 5 3/4
September to October gradual decrease 5 to 5 1/8
days prior to November 10 0 to -1/8 5
November10-19 -0.25 4 3/4
November 12 -0.25 4 3/4
late November cut to midpoint of 4 1/4 to 4 7/8
December 10-17 -0.25 4 1/2 cut to slightly below midpoint of 4 1/4 to 4 7/8
December 16 decrease 4 1/8
December 17 -0.125 4
mid December to February 1972 gradual decrease 3 1/2

Several of the Gold Stocks are holding up well. In particular one of my holdings--Taseko ( TKOCF ) --has more than doubled in two weeks. I have been unable to find any news to explain this meteoric rise other than the Canadian connection. Does anyone know anything about this issue?

Thanks for your recount of the STARR testimony. I haven't been able to see any of it, unfortunately. Your comments remeind me of my feeling when watching some of the watergate hearings. Who was the old southern senator that spoke so well.??

Happy to hear that your's has been a reaction shared by many.

Did you have any feeling that STARR may have overstepped his bounds during his investigations and that some people's rights may have been trampled.?

This impeachemnt stuff will be in the press again next week. Perhpas the issue will further disipate, but its going to be hard not to vote for impeachment given the evidence of lying under oath. You can not let the Presidient get away with that and enforce that law or any other in America.

Thanks again for your recap.

Prudential
Securities Consolidated Statements that was sent to us by Caf member, Stephen O. The Prudential
spokesman would not call me back, but when confronted, did confirm these quotes were true.

"The majority of the Company's derivative transactions are short-term in duration, with
approximately $67.1 Billion of notional or contract amounts maturing within one year of which
approximately $64 Billion mature within three months."

".....which may impair the counterparties' ability to satisfy their obligations to the company"

"...may require the Company to pledge client securities as collateral in support of various secured
financing sources such as bank loans, securities loaned and..."

"..these activities may expose the Company to off-balance sheet risk in the event a client is unable to
fulfill its contractual obligations."

Nobody really knows how bad the derivative problem is. But it is bad enough for Fed Chairman
Alan Greenspan to uncharacteristically push down interest rates in an accelerated manner and it is
bad enough for Prudential to put these disclaimers on their official statements.

This is rather shocking news and if this news circulates and more serious derivative problems
surface, Prudential could have a run. Does that sound excessive? Well, you tell me. It now says in
their statements that they can pledge client securities to support a derivative bailout. Is Prudential
your brokerage house? Do you want them pledging your securities? I bet only a small percentage of
investors at Prudential even realize that Prudential can do this. I think this sort of maneuver by
Prudential is outrageous. If this is not a good reason to put a little of your money into gold bullion, I
do not know what would be one.

http://apps2.vantagenet.com/apolls/poll.asp?id=81119223536

Think I'll run this poll on the Fidelity investors group and see if I get similar numbers.

Just kidding.

Will do Silver next week.
-EJ

ONE FOR THE PARANOID

"Jos Heuvelman, a functionary with the Dutch central bank, last
week proposed that the European Central Bank invest its excess'
reserves in a manner more attuned to late 20th century portfolio
theory. No need to husband low-yielding, liquid money-market
instruments, Heuvelman said, when high-yielding, less-liquid assets
are available at attractive pickups in total return ( presumably, the
Bank of Italy's misadventures with Long-Term Capital Management have no bearing on the suitability question ) ."

http://www.grantspub.com/GIRO/index.html

http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/XAU.html

StudioR - saludy to ya....and some G&P's to ya. I is groovin to MACJAGGER's new disc..........legendary......those, those stones... ( grin ) ......... ( haven't said howdy to ya in a stretch ) .............howdy.

Platinum ( for those that thunk I wouldn't have pert'nance ) - to the charts...... looks in a downtrend still. May have to sell this here rally. Until ennage shows better strength and their respective gubmit shows better..... ( how should I say ) ........resolution.......platy will continue to show weakness........ ( imo ) ...................but plat will still show itself as leader when the metals do start their climb....... ( probably ) .

Gold - don't ya'all see some more weakness ahead?? jeeeeeez... seems as this, this kitco is a morgue sometimes......... ( my contrary indicator ) ............We goldbugs should be rejoicing that we are given ANOTHER chance to make some good buckage after this last ( but not least? ) 'dip' in price. MY charts says........... ( ugh ) ..........the bears still maintain some 'evil powers' over the buggage. Gold will fall......the nimble will profit : )

Mike Sheller - special note. EEC has been rather kind........... ( ohmy ) ............good stuff.....that, that star stuff ;-^ )

Hello Donald, miss your stuff. G&P to ya.

RJ - irie mon. jamaican blue mountain? Jah lives.

the kitco barometer - is VERY UN-contraindicating right now............uh huh. Is that a double negative??.....hmmm

Don't the internet stox seem a bit blowoffish right now?? Don't ask Dr. CrystallBalled right now.............his brass ones are hurtin right about now..................... ( big smiles and G&P's to ya CB ) ...................

I got ANOTHER coinage today..........plat...............my local guy is a crook.............but he has to eat and I don't always give a hoot about price..................I'm gettin hooked. Beautiful things they are............... ( real ) ..........uh huh..........I don't resell 'em.........yet ( ? ) .

I am in the accumulating stage........not yet at the TOL#1 dispersing stage..............................palms folded....................when coinage is present............. ( wink ) .

this.........this kitco............... ( sigh ) .......

away......to the fridge....... ( duh ) ....

toastinglife2nite

. . . investment sales surge
Whilst the launch of a gold euro is a faint possibility, news of a more concrete nature was released this week. According to the World Gold Council ( WGC ) , sales of gold coins in the US surged in the third quarter of the year to 23.5 t, almost three times the record level seen in the same period in 1997.

http://www.mining-journal.com/mj/MJ/20nov98.htm

POG - 395
DOW - 7200 ( and falling )
Y2K - 2.5 ( and starting to get real )

anyone want 1 penny paperbacks?

10 books on offer ( some bestsellers and stuff )

check out http://www.amazon.com/pennyoffer/

:- )

I too felt awe like Studio R. When I watched Mr. Starr's lucid restatement of the facts, I came away with new appreciation that it was only tangentially about sexual conduct. And concerned with sex only because that was the incentive and evidence for: perjury, obstruction of justice, a pattern of obstruction, abuse of power, the use of the office of the presidency to deny justice to a plaintiff in a civil lawsuit, tampering with witnesses, withholding evidence in a grand jury proceeding- and on and on. In other words- he convinced me.

By watching his careful enumeration of fact I now believe without doubt that this was *very much not* about sex- and those who claim Judge Starr is obsessed with the topic forget that were it not for the President's satyriases- none of this would be happening.

I read the account of the testimony in my local paper tonight. Astonishing how the newspaper re-arranged the chronology of the presentation and juxtaposed various quotes to give an entirely *different* version than the one I saw; one pleasing to the agenda of the paper.

I shall call that tampering with the evidence in an impeachment proceeding.

POG - 390
DOW - 62500
Y2K - 2

DOW 5500
POG 380
Y2K 3

: )

Deflation first then hyper-inflation as we monetize the debt in 2001/2002. Euro destabilizes FX rates then everyone heads for paper-vapor-land.

mapleman:

pog=245

dow=4500

y2k=3.5

greenstone/2br02b- 336 billion$ buys ALL the gold@300 in ALL the official reserves worldwide. A trifling sum or difference.

silver platter- we'll be there next year@5.9t ( the loaded sping ) .

another euro coin:

http://www.monnaiedeparis.fr/english/euro_currency_2.html

sobering:

http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/SILVER/gcnomal.jpg

http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/PANICS/1998/LEVERAGE.HTM

I was thinking of doubling my metals position but now I think I will put my powder in a desicator ( physical cash ) . Mounties are looking better all the time. You can buy yhoo for $3/shr in 2000. The sounds of a deranged, paranoid, fiscally responsible, dolt of a gold bug in a liquidity crisis not a flight to quality environment.

We may see 280 before year end. Yep I am loaded up full with idiot remarks tonight. Any cold slap is welcome to snap me out of it.

But FWIW, I think the golds may go down one more time.
Not the kind of stuff I post, but I did look at several
charts and indecies, and they do look a little toppy near
term.

If the dow gets that high, I will personally fly to wherever you are and hand you all the stock certificates I own at that time. Which will be none of course, since I will have taken all my profits. Hehehe. NONE.

Palladium moves centre stage

Amongst the platinum group metals ( PGM ) , palladium has stolen much of the limelight over the past year, its price having surged to record levels above US$400/oz in May against a background of soaring demand and supply uncertainty. The free-market price has since settled in the
US$270-300/oz range but any interruption in supplies could quickly translate into sharply higher prices.

In its 'Platinum1998 Interim Review' ( a report which covers all the platinum group metals ) , the world's leading precious metals refiner, Johnson Matthey ( JM ) , is forecasting that world demand for
palladium this year will reach 8.2 Moz and exceed supply by more than 1 Moz.

SWC closed the week at a new all time high 35 1/4.

It was interesting to note that Amazon's stock valuation today jumped $1.5 Billion ( that's with a B ) primarily as a result of the announcement of a 3::1 stock split Monday. THAT $1.5 Biliion dollars is equivalent to TWICE the valuation of Stillwater Mines. I could understand the upward valuation of AMAZON if they had just invented the book, but they only decided to relice the pie.

REIFY, agree with you gold stocks look a little haggard - XAU could really stumble. Silver looks horrible. As for the stocks, though, tax loss selling may be playing a part in the thwarting of rallies. Venezuela decision to give up on production controls should preasure oil and the CRB - Monday and Tuesday look to be down - as usual. Strong dollar falling rates and falling commodities don't make for a bullish climate for metal miners.

That's right! The DOW is GOING TO THE MOON! Woo hoo! 62500 by July 1999 and 100,000 by 2000! And why not? Greenspan will keep dropping rates to keep the stock market bubbling. He'll drop rates so low by the end of next year you'll LOSE money if you buy US Treasuries or put money in the bank! You'll HAVE to put it in the stock market. Use it or lose it, that'll be the Fed's motto. Like this in 1999:

Jan. -1/2 4.5
Feb. -1/2 4
Mar. -1/2 3.5
Apr. -1/2 3
May -1/2 2.5
Jun. -1/2 2
Jul. -1/2 1.5
Aug. -1/2 1
Sep. -1/2 0.5
Oct. -1/2 0
Nov. -1/2 -0.5
Dec. -1/2 -1.0

Of course, cash starts to look pretty good, too, around May when bank interest rates on savings go negative.

Seriously, I did put an extra zero on there. I'm guessing 6250. That's optimistic. It'll need to go to 3400 to match the Nikkei drop from bubble highs.

-EJ

over on say the Dow Jones Industrials message board for the DOW level and gold in July; probably not our bearish 6000-7000 average - and upper $300s concensus for gold.

Gold at $380!!! in seven - I almost don't think the Federal Reserve and the Central Bankers of the World would let that ( a mere 30% increase ) happen.

Start confiscation discussion, now.