I guess I Know when to sell my stocks NOW. In MAY we can have the credit card gold carry trade. I'm not changing from 20% physical gold though, hell I've had those things so long; Think I bought them when gold was 320 back in 85. Pretty stupid. Then my gold bug Xwife cleaned up most of them in 88. I was a buyer again in 92 @ 340. Hopefully, though I'll double this position again with stock options profits.

If the japanese have to sell bonds. BOY that might change the whole climate real quick. Sorry about the length but some one said this site looked like a scene from blade runner last time. Read near the bottom. THEY MAY START the Currency war EARLY. In which case inflation is our friend. Well kinda.

November 16, 1998

Volume 36, Number 1,851 Issued: Saturday, 14 November 1998

Banks Feeling Squeeze As Funds

Dry Up

BY MAKOTO SATO

Staff writer

Japanese banks are facing

serious difficulties raising

money because of their low

credit ratings and the extreme

sensitivity to credit risk that has

pervaded foreign banks ahead

of year-end book closings.

Foreign banks reduced their credit lines to Japanese

banks to their lowest level in years after the near

collapse in September of Long-Term Capital

Management, a huge U.S.-based hedge fund. Many

analysts and investors say Japanese banks are walking a

tightrope in the Eurodollar money market.

Akira Kishi, president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

and chairman of the Federation of Bankers

Associations of Japan, downplays the credit crunch.

He said that while banks were having trouble raising

funds, "all banks will have raised enough funds by the

year-end, since they have been raising funds in

advance."

Still, major banks have been having a hard time raising

yen at home because the main sources - regional banks,

investment funds and foreign banks - are reducing their

lending and putting their money into government

treasury bills. They have been doing so at such a pace

that the yield on treasury bills earlier this month turned

negative for the first time ever.

The government and the Bank of Japan are treating the

credit squeeze as an emergency, although some market

participants were expecting even stronger action from

the central bank last week.

The Bank of Japan's Policy Board decided on Nov. 13

to increase liquidity in the financial system by extending

emergency loans to banks at 0.5% annual interest,

easing the rules under which the Bank of Japan will buy

commercial paper, and conducting new open-market

operations.

The central bank fears corporate borrowers will have a

hard time securing credit toward the year-end and the

fiscal year-end in March because banks are burdened

by bad loans and lower credit ratings. It expects the

emergency measures to increase liquidity by 3.5 trillion

to 5 trillion yen ( $28.7 billion to $40.9 billion ) .

Under the emergency loan program, banks during the

October-December quarter would be eligible to borrow

from the central bank up to 50% of any increase since

the end of September in their outstanding loan

balances.

The lending program could be launched as early as

mid-December and should total as high as 3 trillion yen,

according to Iwao Kuroda, an executive director of the

central bank.

The new guidelines on buying commercial paper, which

will begin on Nov. 16, will extend the maturity limit

from three months to one year, a change expected to

expand the central bank's infusions of liquidity by

roughly 2 trillion yen.

The central bank also pledged to quickly work out

details of a new market-operation plan under which it

would buy bills issued by financial institutions against

collateral composed of corporate bonds and loans on

deeds. The plan is not expected to be finalized before

year-end. Kuroda said that these actions should

indirectly help banks searching for dollar funds

overseas because they will ease the squeeze on yen

funds at home.

Many market participants were expecting more direct

action by the Bank of Japan to ease the pressure on

banks in need of dollars. Speculation had included the

possibility of the central bank offering dollars to banks

in swaps for yen.

The Finance Ministry is using some of the nation's

foreign reserves to make dollars available to banks, the

first time the ministry has ever acknowledged doing so.

Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa confirmed that the

funds had been lent but refused to disclose the amount

or identify the recipients.

Feeling the squeeze

Major Japanese banks need to raise an average of

$20-30 billion by the end of December, according to

some bank analysts and economists. The money is

needed for settlements before corporate book closings

at the year-end and the fiscal year-end.

Some Japanese companies with operations overseas

are expected to feel the credit squeeze, too, because

they often rely on foreign-currency loans from Japanese

banks.

Some banks are even asking companies with high credit

ratings, such as Tokyo Electric Power Co., to raise

dollars and provide them to their customers.

"Foreign banks have been reluctant to provide credit to

Japanese banks because of their low ratings," said

Taisuke Tanaka, director and strategist of the global

foreign-exchange division at Credit Suisse First

Boston's Tokyo branch.

He added that the situation got much worse this year

because many foreign banks were hurt by losses of

Long-Term Capital Management, the speculative

U.S.-based hedge fund rescued from bankruptcy in

September, as well as by the financial crises in Russia

and Brazil.

Many foreign banks end their financial year in

December.

Distorted yields

"Naturally, foreign banks will avoid any credit risk that

may mar their balance sheets," Tanaka said.

The difficulty Japanese banks face in raising dollars is

causing distorted yields in short-term money markets.

"Only a few major Japanese banks are able to raise

U.S. dollars in the Eurodollar market," said Kazuto

Uchida, chief strategist of the investment strategy

division at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities Co. Other

Japanese banks are raising dollars by swapping

Euroyen funds with foreign banks.

Japanese banks are losing money on the transactions, in

effect a "minus yield," Uchida said.

The yield on Japanese government three-month treasury

bills fell to minus 0.005% on Nov. 5, and trading

reached 5 yen00 million ( $4.1 million ) . The bill hasn't

been traded since.

Yen funds

The yield on the six-month treasury bill fell to minus

0.005% earlier in the month, and trading reached 1

billion yen. The yield settled for a while at 0% and since

has crept up to 0.03%.

The low yields indirectly show how desperate Japanese

banks are to raise dollars, Uchida said.

"Foreign banks don't necessarily need to raise yen

funds," he said. "They are seeking safe short-term yen

securities, and treasury bills are the only thing available.

They rushed to buy the bills, helping to send down the

rates."

"If such distortions in the market continue, Japanese

banks that cannot raise U.S. dollars will be forced to

retreat from foreign markets," Uchida warned.

Another factor driving down the yield on treasury bills

is the near collapse of the Long-Term Capital

Management hedge fund. Last year, hedge funds sold

yen in the forward market for foreign banks, but this

year they are shying away from the high-risk vehicles.

The so-called Japan premium, the spread between

interbank rates abroad offered to Japanese banks and

banks of other money centers, has been rising. The

spread between the London interbank offered rate, or

LIBOR, and the average rate offered major Japanese

banks jumped to 0.935% last week, up 0.173 point

from a week earlier.

The spread is approaching the level it hit a year ago,

when the Japanese financial system was rocked by the

collapse of Sanyo Securities Co., Yamaichi Securities

Co. and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank in one month. In

early December, the Japan premium rose to 1.0-1.1

percentage point.

Japanese banks are also facing a bottleneck in domestic

short-term money markets. On Oct. 30, the overnight

noncollateralized call-money rate rose despite eased

monetary policy. The central bank provided 2 yen00

billion more than required to the market, but the average

rate went up by 0.12 point to 0.33%. The central bank's

target is 0.25%.

In the Euroyen offshore market, the situation is more

serious. The Tokyo interbank offered rate, or TIBOR,

on three-month maturities has risen to 0.729%, almost

equivalent to the 0.76% rate before the central bank

decided to guide rates downward last month.

To counter this trend, the Economic Strategy Council,

an advisory body to the prime minister, has told the

government that it should provide dollars to Japanese

banks through foreign reserves and swaps between

banks and the central bank.

"Fund-raising by Japanese banks through dollar-yen

swaps is now decreasing," said Ryohei Muramatsu,

manager of the treasury and foreign-exchange division

at Commerzbank's Tokyo branch. "One take on the

situation is that Japanese banks have met their goals."

Extending loans

The government has also decided to expand dollar

loans through the Export-Import Bank of Japan to

overseas subsidiaries of Japanese companies. The

loans are expected to total more than $3 billion by the

end of March.

Interest rates on the loans would be 0.5 percentage

point above LIBOR, which is lower than dollar loans

from Japanese banks. The government is also said to

be considering dollar loans to Japanese banks.

Market analysts are skeptical about the effect the

government measures will have. "Using the

foreign-currency reserves has been regarded as a taboo

by the Finance Ministry," said Tanaka of Credit Suisse

First Boston. "If the banks require more than $1 trillion,

the ministry would be forced to sell U.S. bonds."

"These distortions in the short-term money market are

basically caused by the low credibility of Japanese

banks," said Uchida of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities.

"From March 2001, the accounting system of Japanese

financial institutions is scheduled to change from the

current cost method to the market-value method, and

Japanese banks will be forced to disclose their latent

losses. Japanese banks have to reform themselves by

then. Time is running out."

[ HOME ] [ WHATS NEW ] [ NEWS ] [ NIKKEI WEEKLY ]

jus talkin' to myself again.

beep

They would say dow 11000, pog 225, y2k 2

please.

I'm going for the record. Comon it won't be that bad.

YEp.

splash ( cold water )

gold 380
dow 3800
y2k still 3.5

Did you know that 1/3 of the DEBT is financed in short term treasuries. If the japanese start sellin' a trillion or even 500 billion in these notes we are headed for a dollar at the south pole.

there was a time a couple of years ago when this site would be blazing at this time of the day and week. Looks like things are calmer now.

Conspiracy theories, and the threats of gold confiscation have scared off all but the most seriously deranged of gold bugs.

Close to a year ago I asked if there was any evidence that the US gov ever confiscated any gold. The answer seems to be no. They asked and passed laws but no confiscation occurred. This disappointed many conspirators here.

Naw, the Fed won't let the dollar drop too much. The Fed will raise interest rates. Oops, I guess that's not so good for the stock market.

Bedtime. G'Nite.
-EJ

Are you serious? You mean recently? The US Gov't confiscated gold in the 1930s. Doesn't make much sense to do it now that the dollar is off the gold standard.
-EJ

EJ. As far as I can tell the laws passed in the 30's re: confiscation never resulted in any confiscation--no G-men smashing down doors etc.

Do you think we are headed for inflation or deflation in the next year or so? I'm deflationary for six months or a year and then on the inflation train.

I don't know about your timing but the price of all commodities seems down--nickle steel oil etc.

Well my timing will change rapidly with the strength of short term treasury sales. What would be your clue, and timing?

On November 19, 1998 Auric wrote "Look for the Dow to take a sharp and unexpected hit. Down 300 points tomorrow." Well, it COULD have happened, eh. Markets are mostly quiet and unchanged this evening. I look for that to continue for a couple more days. On the question of the evening-- Gold 500+, Dow 4000, and Y2K worries @ 4 by July 1999.

I got out of most of gold in 1996. I think there is doubt that it has reached its bottom yet. When the commentators start to talk about gold it will be time to have bought and when the man in the street is buying it an oz at a time it is time to have sold. I have no faith in the ability of most or all of the usual methods to tell us what is about to happen.

Sounds like what I said yesterday. Buy gold when it is selling at incredibly low prices; at or near most production costs, mines shutting down. And sell when we have rumors flying, and lots of hype. But no time frame thoughts other than POG and media coverage for you?

Right. Not a popular view. But I have been tuning in here for about 2 and half years and I'm convinced that nobody knows where gold is going. Many know a tremendous amount about other things but a corect prediction seems to be a surprise to them as well as to the rest of us.

There is an aspect to derivative risk that I never seem to see discussed, and one which has bothered me a lot. In using derivatives like futures and options, there is some risk in a hedging strategy ( ie they are not a perfect hedge for physical for example ) , the risks are fairly straightforward and easily grasped and factored into the equation, and we are typically dealing with timing risk, and to some much lesser degree counterparty default on complex transactions in a market gone crazy. So, these derivatives are *not* my topic of concern. What I am puzzled by is the lack of interest in the unhinging of an asset from its attendent liability through a swap. One of the tenets of good financial management is to have the security ( asset ) match the debt as nearly as possible. You don't get 30 year financing on a car for example. But with a swap, viola! The unhinging is done, and done, and done, so that there is no relationship ( it seems to me ) between asset and debt instrument. Therefore, when something untoward happens to the asset covering the debt, a debt that was put on the books that at one time had good cover, is now just as good as unsecured. This is the real risk it seems to me. So when I read about 28T of derivative exposure, I focus on the swap segment as the danger area.

But I never see this aspect discussed. Perhaps it is all too elementary. Anyone?

@t1 @studio.r: Wonderful to make your acquaintainces. Our best to both you and yours.

Safe deposit boxes were sealed and gold confiscated. Happened to my Dad's parents. The gold you had in your home was useless because you could only sell it on the black market. People did resort to melting bullion into spoons and so forth, since the law was a little vague on the melting and jewelry qualification rules.

I agree, there's no way to predict what's going to happen. Mostly cash and some gold and silver is a safe way to play it, I figure. Save, get out of debt. Stuff a person ought to do anyway.

Really am going to bed now.

-EJ

What about volatility? I think this will be a panic, not a long drawn out slugging match. Some one will make a big a risky mistake. Then a good three to five month route one way or another with good reversal action. What about you?

I know the boxes were sealed but that is as far as it was supposed to go--before my time and nothing like that happened here anyway

I expect it will be slower than the spike to 850 and that's why I'm not too concerned about missing the first bit. I intend to buy the junior producers and almost producers which --tradition has it-- won't take off until after gold is underway.

You will be looking for them with no debt and little forward sales position. And a low production cost around $170/oz. I have been looking at this Richmont Mines in Canada, but I am too cowardly to become the bacon. Their P/E is 13. And E/S is .20... They only do about 30000-70000 oz a year and have probable reserves out maybe eight to ten years. Oh well, I hope I have time to train on evaluating mining stocks. The one good thing is that they hardly fliched even when POG went to 273. They are pretty thin though. Only 3000 shares per day.

Richmont is on my list to watch. I don't think the actual situation of the mine will count as long as it is cheap at the time. If there is a long period of 300 -280 having your money in a good comapny is always a good idea I think.

Everybody seems to talk about the SA stocks DrooY, Rangy eh RANgold resources...what about AU--AngloGold? They seem steady as a rock lately. Good yield, E/S, P/E and lots of reserves. I don't know about these ADRs though. Thanks for the information. See you later. I'll be out in five minutes.

me too

There is a good thread at Silicon Investors
about derivatives. Not sure if your question
is addressed there or not, but worth a look. http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject_22689

Selby
Your;
I'm convinced that nobody knows where gold is going. Many know a
tremendous amount about other things but a corect prediction seems to be a
surprise to them as well as to the rest of us."

Obligatory reading. Noone knows what's going to happen on Monday. Ask 1000 people to toss a coin. Heads for up; tails for down. Those who toss correctly stay in, the rest leave. Expect 500 to be in the game on Tuesday. Maybe 250 by Wednesday. 125 by Thursday. Now, the interesting question is, as you get throw the dice, are those left behind "gifted" or "lucky"?

And, to answer your question from several spins ago, by which time i'd off-logged, I live in NZ.

heads up any other 'tipodeans around just now.

Not the most encouraging thing to post here but if anyone knows where gold is going they have kept it a secret from me. Off to bed.

Link doesn't work. Try http://www.techstocks.com/ Type in derivatives in subject search line.

Richmont ( ric ) is a first class profitable operator-good pickens. River Gold another, but they are in litagation with VenCan over the Edwards Mine, but their consistency may out weigh their so-so balance sheet which should improve if they keep up their excellent operating record.
Also Viceroy ( voy ) with forward sales at $400 per ounce mayhave an in with the bullion banks. They have good cash reserves and might deserve a look see. Recent exploration in Argentina made some holders unhappy, but gold averaged about 0.03 oz over total lenght of all holes drilled and this is just the beginning of the program.
Their top man had a lot of input on Primes Eskay Creek and other Canadian discoveries.
Also if Prime ( pru ) is not eaten up by Homestake on Dec 1st they certainly deserve a look see.

I feel compelled to pass along to you an "okie" phrase which was presented to me this night by a fine friend'O'mine, Eddie Wells. We were discussing an acquaintance's shortcoming as it pertains to a financial transaction, when Eddie "brought home" the tragic circumstance by referencing the predicament in this manner......"Hell, ronnie, Jimmy doesn't know duck sh@t from a good grade of putty!"

this has no bearing on this evening's discourse; however, I thought you could use Eddie's line sometime in the future. no charge. ( gulp ) I expect to be repaid with a comparable aussie utterance.

Studs
'strewth, I'll leave the Stryne to the aussies: I'm a kiwi, mate, you know, over the Sydney Harbour Bridge....land of the wrong white crowd.....where spring, summer and winter all kinda look the same, where the scenary takes your breath away by turns. At a local Park party today, this is the land of t-shirt and tattoo, of pierced body bits, of ganja, sun GOLDen sand and surf...Dullsville :-^]
In meantime, thanks for the duck sh!t saying. Bound to come in useful sometime. I'll give you a fair suck of the sav in a bit.
Cornell Dupree and Herbie Mann on the platter tonight..
Gold on a merry circus. But, the subject is being raised more and more into awareness..

Your heads/tails analogy reminded me of something I read. There was this fellow who mailed out predictions on the results of an upcoming football ( NFL ) game. He mailed several hundred letters, half predicting team A to win, and the other half calling for team B's victory. He would do this weekly, only sending letters to those that had gotten correct predictions in the previous week. After a few weeks, those still on the list had an impressive string of correct calls and he requested that people send him $100 for next weeks predictions. Of course, many people fell for this, thinking this guy was on to something. This process continued through the season, and he made quite a chunk of change. Someone who lost money got wise to the scam and called the law on him. Pity. It was Darwinism in action.

pardon. I was doing muzac research this a.m. when I came upon this site......incomparable.... http://www.allmusic.com/cg/x.exe slip sliding awaaaay.......

that was supposed to be herbie's profile......no such luck...... http://www.allmusic.com/ salud!!!

Auric
Now That's good thinking! Practical mathematics. And, to think LGB still doesn't believe me about Newton's Casino.
No matter

EJ -- As long as EVERYBODY prints money at the same percentage basis, dollar won't drop. Quantities of paper are 'relative' to each other! But, it is the relative perceived ability to pay debt to watch for.

...on Saturday afternoon??

I was going to vote:
POG by July '99 = 340
DOW by July '99 = 7200
Y2K = 3.5

Then I read sharefins 07:47 from yesterday...

...and will change my vote:

POG = 195
DOW = 2350
Y2K = 5
..........................
Mike Stewart@juniors up. I've noticed the same thing down here. I have had funerals for some of my juniors, but now they are sticking their heads out of their coffins!!
.......................
van Gogh painting just sold for 65 million US $$$!!!!!!!

Back soon, as I am dripping blood all over the keyboard. Now where is my paint set??? Cheers@Nick-one-ear.

I detailed their production capacity back a while ago in a post on this forum in order to substantiate the above number. I reposted it a few months ago.
As the $1 coin comes into circulation they can decrease printing of one dollar bills and put $100 plates on those presses and really churn out the paper - especially if they went to 3 shifts/day 7 days/week {which the above figure is predicated upon}.
At the above rate they only need 6 months to print enough for M1.
But what that does to inflation - we can guess.
Maybe they have plates prepared for US$500 and US$1000 notes.
Got wheelbarrows?

Nick -- Given the scenario, you figure that people will be more interested in pure survival? Food, water, heat, electricity? I can sympathize with that view point. In a scenario of true and real scarcity, a bottle of water and a can of beans 'might' be had for a nice $20 liberty. 'Course, without the gold piece, nothing might be had. I guess we would all find out the true value of 'things' given the circumstance.

POG - 200
DOW - 12,000
Y2K - 1.5

"Nick??"

"Yes, dear."

"I have to go out for a while. Will you stir the apples I am cooking to make apple pies tonight??"

"Yes, dear."

"About every ten minutes."

"Yes, dear."

"Don't let them burn!!"

"Yes, dear."
..........................
Better read the day's Kitco posts.What's finnie got to say?? Geeez, long article, but good!! ( 07:47 ) . The Kitco gang are down in the dumps over the POG. So what else is knew!! RJ must be on his cruise. LGB out buying satellite insurance. Where is F*?? So quiet around here.

What's that smell???? OH, $#!t!!!!!!

Jeeeez, mate. I am in big strife!!! Have you got an extra room???

...gnu.

Notice that in my deflationary scenario I deflated the DOW by 74% and the POG by 34%. I know which one I would want to own in a crash. EVERYTHING will go down in realation to REAL money.

If there is a scarcity of food or other provisions, you will take your gold coins ( one at a time ) to your local Chinese or Indian trader. HE/SHE will give you good value ( in goods ) for your MONEY!!!

Email Chatter
----
Dear Client,

When I sent you an announcement of my new book RUBLES TO DOLLARS, I
promised to-email an update on Russia after my return from Moscow.

Russia is in the midst of a financial crisis. The ruble has collapsed from
6 to a dollar to 16 to a dollar. The banking system has essentially seized
up and locally issued credit cards do not work. The stock market whose
volume averaged over $100 million a day in 1997 now rarely trades more than
$4 million a day.

Last year, the Russian economy has stabilized and its stock market was the
best-performing market worldwide. This year, it is the world's
worst-performing stock market. How did Russia get into this pickle and
what is likely to happen next?

Russia suffers from the inept economic leadership of its current President.
The man who was a heroic figure in the early 90's - destroying the
communist system, turning the country towards democracy and capitalism,
climbing on a tank in defiance of communist rebels - has become a sick, out
of touch recluse. His inattention has allowed several powerful figures
( Russians call them oligarchs ) to grab great stakes in the Russian economy.
Today, when you see the names of Russians on the Forbes' list of the
richest people in the world, you've got to ask yourself how they made that
money. They sure haven't inherited it, nor have they added any useful
value to the country. They won the insider game and grabbed hold of former
state assets. Today, their banks are accused of having stolen much of the
foreign aid that has poured into Russia. Another major cause of the crisis
is the sharp decline in world oil prices. Russia is one of the largest oil
producers in the world, and the amount of current deficit is pretty much
equal to the shortfall in government oil revenue since last year ( when sold
for 50% more than today ) .

The collapse of the ruble has tripled the cost of imported goods. If you
buy potatoes from a local babushka who grows them on her private lot, her
prices haven't changed much, but if you buy things imported from the West,
those prices have tripled. Many importers have failed, creating temporary
shortages. Several of my friends in Moscow had babies recently and depend
on disposable diapers and baby formula. They are scrounging and paying any
price to get these goods. One of them said to his wife at the depth of
crisis - if formula disappears from all stores, we'll have to call Alex in
New York and ask him to fly to Moscow with two suitcases of baby formula.
The quality of friendship and mutual loyalty between family and friends is
still much higher in Russia than in the West.

A severe unemployment is hitting the financial sector. Most of my friends
in Moscow have seen their incomes reduced, salaries cut, jobs lost. A
business associate used to rent two floors of an office building - now he
is down to two rooms and can't afford a cellular phone. A famous
investment bank went from 400 employees down to 20 employees and lost its
headquarters, just a few month after spending $40 million to remodel the
building and install a $1.5 million handmade Italian tile ceiling on the
executive floor.

Two friends who own an advertising company had contracted in summer for a
major job that took them several month. By the time they got paid in
August, the ruble was devalued - the same amount of rubles provided only
about 1/3 of what they expected to be paid in dollars. In a panicky fear
of further decline, they rushed to exchange their rubles into dollars, and
did it at a terrible rate of 24 rubles to a dollar, just before the ruble
firmed up to its current rate of 16 to 1. So they got hit on both sides.

I spent a day touring a suburban psychiatric center, both an outpatient
clinic and a hospital. The government funding is poor, and there is a
pathetic shortage of drugs. The average salary of a full-time psychiatrist
is $50 a month. Their chief psychiatrist asked me how much psychiatrists
in the US were making! The doctors are trying to make a few extra rubles
by making house calls, giving injections ( often paid in potatoes or other
farm goods ) , and performing mental status exams that the government
requires from anyone who wants to get a gun permit, a drivers' license, a
foreign passport, or to sell their apartment - such exams cost 2 or 3
dollars.

What will happen this winter - Russia is already having a cold spell, and
its food stocks are at historically low levels, following the worst crop in
50 years. Russians will not starve. They do have some reserves and, even
though their ability to buy food in the West was impaired by the fall in
the value of the ruble, they will receive some humanitarian foreign aid,
much of it from the US. They will feel the full brunt of the economic
decline by the Spring of 1999, when food reserves will be drawn down prior
to the summer and autumn harvest.

Surprisingly - or not surprisingly perhaps - some good is starting to come
out of the current crisis, and more good is likely down the road. I will
list several benefits here in no particular order:

* The oligarchs, with their grip on the banking system, have been severely
wounded and weakened. Some of them are technically bankrupt. Their demise
will allow more progressive economic forces to emerge. For example,
foreign banks may be allowed to operate in Russia, bringing in much needed
Western reliability and expertise.

* The stability of the democratic system in Russia has been proven. In the
immediate aftermath of the crisis, the communist party had called for a
general strike with mass nationwide demonstrations. Democrats worried, but
the turnout at those demonstrations was a joke, and they were peaceful.
Incidentally, communists continue their bottom-fishing, with brutal attacks
on media and dirty anti-Semitic slogans. From what I saw in Moscow,
communists are losing ground in their desperate gambit.

* The crisis in the financial sector is becoming be a boon for the "real"
economy. The financial sector has educated a generation of western-style
professionals, from managing directors to executive secretaries. Many of
these people, unable to find work in the financial industry, are taking
comparable jobs in cement plants, car factories, meat-packing plants and
government agencies and utilities, bringing with them a western-inspired
business culture.

* People and institutions that survived the crisis have learned useful
lessons that will serve them for decades to come. The executive mentioned
above has just moved his company into new, bigger headquarters. During the
boom years, when other investment banks speculated in stocks and put their
free cash into hugely profitable GKOs, his company stuck strictly to
brokerage and kept its free money on deposit in foreign banks. Now it is
expanding while its swashbuckling competitors are collapsing.

* The decline of the ruble has created a huge advantage for Russian
exporters. A bottle of top-notch Russian vodka cost $3 in Moscow ( are any
importers reading this? ) . The Saratov Oblast ( region ) has just passed a
law allowing private ownership of agricultural land - at the recent auction
in Moscow, the 100-hectare ( approximately 200 acre ) lots were going for
$1,800 per lot. Last week in Moscow, the going price for a new Niva jeep
was $3,800. This is a smallish jeep, a bit bigger than Suzuki Samurai,
with a 1,700 cc GM engine and Italian-designed body, very popular in
Australia and Northern Europe. You can put 2 Nivas in a shipping container
and bring it to the US for $1,000. If I find how to upgrade Niva exhaust
system to the US standards, you may see me driving a Russian jeep.

Real Cost Of U.S. Gasoline Is $15.14 Per Gallon?
By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - So you think you're getting a good deal on a tank of
gasoline these days? Not so, if all the oil industry tax subsidies received
from the federal and state governments and other costs that went into
producing that gallon of gasoline were included in the pump price.

Such external costs push the price of gasoline as high as $15.14 a gallon,
according to a new report released Tuesday by the International Center for
Technology Assessment.

``In reality, the external costs of using our cars are much more higher than
we may realize,'' the Washington-based research group said in its report.

The report examined more than 40 separate cost factors the group said it
associated with gasoline production but aren't reflected by the price of
gasoline at the pump.

These external costs total up to $1.69 trillion per year, according to the
report.

The group points out that the federal government provides the oil industry
with tax breaks to help U.S. companies compete with international producers,
so gasoline remains cheap for American consumers.

The Department of Energy is forecasting that the national price for regular
unleaded gasoline will average $1.02 during the current quarter, the lowest
price on record for any three-month period when adjusted for inflation.

Tax subsidies don't end at the federal level, as the group said most state
income taxes are based on oil firms' lower federal tax bills, which result in
companies paying $123 million to $323 million less in state taxes.

In addition to tax breaks, the federal government provides up to $114.6
billion in subsidies annually that support the extraction, production and use
of petroleum, such as research and development and export financing.

The federal government also spends up to $1.6 billion yearly on regulatory
oversight, pollution cleanup and liability costs connected to the oil
industry, the group said.

In addition, Defense Department spending allocated to safeguard the world's
petroleum resources totals $55 billion to $96 billion a year, according to the
group.
================

Think about this. When Y2K strikes and these subsidies are no longer
available, because the federal government no longer functions, just try to
get a gallon of gas for a dollar. All you rubes who think that you will see
the economy continue much the same as it is are in for a rude shock.

There won't be mere lines at the pumps.

People who PREPARED won't have to worry about going anywhere because they
already have everything that they need. So we will be watching you rubes
running around like chickens with your heads cut off trying to drive an hour
to find food when gas is $20 a gallon.

LOL LOL LOL

You still have no clue how bad it is going to get. You hear the acronym
TEOTWAWKI and you just gloss over what it means. It does not mean Armageddon.
It means that the world "AS YOU KNOW IT" is over. But, all you 'smart' guys
are going to find out for yourselves soon enough, like the dismally ignorant
and self-deceived imbeciles that you are.

"Nothing bad will happen. Nothing bad will happen. Nothing bad will happen."

ROTFLMAO

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/sc/story.html?s=v/nm/19981118/sc/gasoline_3
.html
--
Paul Milne
"The road to TEOTWAWKI is paved with good expectations"

Now, do I believe it'll get that bad at Y2K? No. First, it would ruinously spoil the NWO plans. TOO soon for that, even though things are in an accelerated phase. But, I do think they'll use it and a certain amount of scarcity to further/complete their cause. Jack-boot commeth, even much more than we've seen to date! Expect to present your 'papers' to just go to work, etc. Hitler and Stalin would be pleased to be alive at this time, to name just a couple. Yup, it'll be just such a 'swell' time to be alive. The beast is currently alive and well. Y2K will shoot it but it will 'miraculously' survive and thrive. Perhaps it would be better if the Y2Kchaos would happen in the extreme. That's my two-cents-worth on the scenario.

http://x3.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=413789632&CONTEXT=911640356.1476853763&hitnum=5

http://x3.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=412966915&CONTEXT=911640356.1476853763&hitnum=3

http://x11.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=412998361&CONTEXT=911640691.36700194&hitnum=6

And here's what they're ranting about:
http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1116/fcw-newsfedwire-11-16-98.html

---
http://users.sgi.net/~elcore/elc_y2k.htm

http://cnn.com/POLL/results/59011.html

btw, Nick, you forgot to mention that GNU=Gnu's not Unix! :- ) ( for those not already in the know )

sharefin - hey, dude, when are you gonna update those swinging charts?

http://www.jrnl.com/news/98/Nov/jrn240201198.html

----
Email Chatter
---
I guess I'm a permabear, but I make no apology for it:
a top has to be in soon. I'm in no desperate rush to start swimming in puts at
this minute, particularly since rounded tops are characterstic of this market,
and those take a while to form. But if the following list is not bearish, then
I don't know what is:

-sentiment overly bullish, just look at those AII numbers. could approach 60%
bulls which would historically signify a pullback of at least 5%
-calls out number puts by 5 to 1 in terms of $ purchased value ( oex )
-advance decline line rapidly needs oxygen
-internet stocks finally showing rapid reversal from stratosphere
-overbought 5 day TRIN
-dow transports down and set to keep falling
-important tops tend to form after expiration
-daily rsi overbought and negatively diverging with price
-daily stochastic overbought, %d cross %k from above, negatively diverging
with price
-macd negatively diverging and bearish crossover
-vix is so cheap and is forming a double bottom

I'm not saying the top is in. Maddness dies hard, and with all time highs
within reach ( on an intra day basis ) it would be sacriledge to deprive the
bulls a final hurrah. Anyway, we wouldn't want to rob "ma and pa america" of a
frothy stock market to spice up the Nov 26th hols.

I hear rumblings of a spike in gold for the 2nd week of december. With a full
moon on 3rd December, the 4th and 7th December represent the first and third
trading days after a full moon ( bearish ) . There are no more interest rate cuts
in the pipeline for when the fed meets 22 Dec.

I'm keenly eyeing Monday 7th December as a particularly bearish day, the
question is "how big will any fall be?"........the mutal fund kids and the buy
the dips gang have had the belief that stocks always bounce back so firmly
ingrained into their minds, that this recent fall to 7500 and the subsequent
rebound will have done their confidence no end of good. The lesson in fear so
recently learnt is already forgotten.

As for my bullish writings in past, the price element still stands: this
market has to clear 9332 print for that to stand. But as for the time element,
I simply can't bring myself to be bullish despite now being in the post 20/11
period.

I write this Thursday, with full anticpation that Friday will be unbelievably
bullish ( 9250? ) . But an Elliotician I know expects the rally to be ( using a
favourite Elliot word ) truncated. A sort of moment of silence plateau when the
bulls finally get to the top of the mountain, admire the breath taking view
and, upon hearing a faint sell whipser in the background, turn into a blind
panic and rush for the exits.

The one thing which makes me very wary of this turning into a major crash is
the absolutely staggering open interest on way out of the money december puts
( cboe ) . That leads me to belive that, if my bearish analysis is correct, that
we either have a big pullback ( but not a crash ) , or the crash gets postponed
to January ( or beyond ) .

To summarise then: I've bought myself a cave and had my bear suit dry cleaned.
I'm itching to short this thing but don't have the guts to do it, despite the
lengthy list above. I'm likely to do it when the odds are overwhelmingly in my
favour: i.e. if gold spikes at a time when the swing index tops a second
time.....or if it continues in steep decline in conjuction with some other
indicators* which I follow ( which are currently bullish )
Cheers

http://www.nrc.gov/NRC/Y2K/Audit/Y2K50443.html#table6

Spooky report - glad they're looking now.

2 ) staggering open interest on dow 80.00 puts ( like 25 thousand, something i
have never seen since i started this thing ) . can't for the life of me see that
being taken out before december expiration. and they can't have a crash for
christmas can they?
oleman sez its a bull and swtrans selling his put cemetary to reer was an
enourmous mistake. november was a record for the cemetary but december will be
even bigger. the irrational exuberane is just beginning!!!!!!!!!! ( until he
SARs ofcourse ;o )

5 ) the gold spike will, for me, be the sign that the big one is coming. my
mate ( anthony ) says so. he is ALWAYS wrong in the very near term and so an
excellent short term fade, but he is smart ( bit like sammy ) . when we were down
at 8000ish late september he told me in no uncertain terms that we were going
for new highs. i told him he was mad and that the swing was rolling over. i
was right when the dow promptly fell to 7500 and boy did i feel smug at the
time. but he too was right big time!!!!!! he has been invested in gold
( physical ) since july actually.

Here you go.
Been busy the last few days and sorting through the email.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

--
Y2K SOS on 911
http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/16290.html

Scanning through your poll results of last night I thought I should reexamine my own response of $310 and Dow 5700. If that were to happen it would produce a Dow/Gold Ratio of 18.39. That is very close to the 1929 top of 18.43. Not much of a fall at all. Then I went back to find when we last had a Dow in the 5700's. It was September 12, 1996, that the Dow last closed in that range when it reached 5771.94. On that day the POG was $382.30 producing a Dow/Gold Ratio of 15.1. All this was only 2 short years ago.

In 1966 we had a Dow/Gold Ratio of 29.00 with the Dow at 1000 and gold at $35. By 1980 the Dow/Gold Ratio was 1.39 with gold at $800 and the Dow at about 900. We are on the way to the 1+ range again but I don't think it is going to take 14 years this time. We went from D/G 18.43 in 1929 to 1+ in 1932. That was only 3 years. I think that we can expect the 1929 schedule because, as in 1929, we are in a worldwide currency crisis. The 1966 event was mostly a U.S. only problem caused by the Vietnam guns and butter decision of Lyndon Johnson. So put me down for a prediction of Dow/Gold Ratio 1+ by July, 2004.

http://www.hotcoco.com/news/business/businessstories/jfm07378.htm


Gartner Group Assholes
http://x3.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=413645920&CONTEXT=911649428.1628045387&hitnum=3

compliancy of financial institutions. I am presently withdawing
$500 cash twice a month ( converting some of it to silver coin ) in
order to slowly accumulate a cash pool of 5 to 6 thousand at least
6 months ahead of Y2K. I may increase that to the limit of my
bank branch cash pool limit for withdrawls next year.
At the moment, I have no intention of cashing out of stocks. It is
my understanding that brokerage firms do keep a backup paper file
of client assets, and of course there is a file with actual share
certificates somewhere. Your records of stock ownership are held
in two places, at your broker, and at the company head office of the
firm in which you have an equity position.

I shall be requesting a statement or keeping my most recent accounts
statement in a very safe place just prior to Y2K. This goes for both
my bank and my broker.

THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
I don't know nothin' 'bout no Y2K

OK, I admit it: I've been ducking the "Y2K" question.

It's the most frequent inquiry I get, these days. And last weekend, while participating in an electronic chat room organized by the Liberty Roundtable, I had the questions come up several more times: "What do you see happening in the Y2K crisis? To what part of the country should we move to be safest?"

For those who have been in a cave, "Y2K" is shorthand for the problem that develops because -- computer memory having been at a premium -- the programmers who set up many of our mainframe computers back in the 1970s and '80s created only a two-digit field for "year."

Now -- starting April 1, 1999, if not sooner -- operators are going to try to program the computers that monitor our utility grids and phone systems, the factory machinery that generates "just-on-time delivery" of goods, even our railroad and airport switching equipment, giving those machines their instructions for the first quarter of the year "00."

But ( pardon my anthropomorphing ) many of those computers will "assume" the year 00 happened 99 years ago.

Anecdotes are already circulating about mortgage holders being billed for 99 years of delinquent interest, or supermarket debit machines rejecting as "expired" brand new debit cards which carry expiration dates ending in "00" or "01. "

So far, opinion among thoughtful people has been split on the likely repercussions. Some perfectly wise folks argue that our economy and technology are the most innovative and resourceful ever devised. Even if
your bank's ATMs go on the fritz for a couple of days, even if the railroad switching equipment bogs down and produce deliveries to your supermarket grow spotty for a few weeks, armies of well-paid technicians will hurl themselves into developing "work-arounds."

To this way of thinking, survivalists who foresee the collapse of large segments of our urban culture, putting a premium on ownership of a cow and a well and a garden for the first time in 50 years, are merely engaging in wishful thinking. Generally a bunch of Bible-thumpers ( as this line of thought goes ) , they would find it mighty handy for some kind of cosmic rain of brimstone to wipe away the urban Sodom and Gomorrah they view as the cause of all their problems, proliferating as that urban culture does the
legions of the socialists, the welfare queens, the abortionists, the enviro bug-worshippers, the gun-grabbers. How fitting and handy to envision them all killing each other off, fighting over the last moldy crust of bread.

And, if the Y2K "crisis" were about to occur in perfect isolation, that argument would hold some water ( even if this revelation of a nation divided into urban-versus-rural, East-versus-West, gun-lover versus gun-hater, would be worth some further study, all by itself. )

But remember, Y2K is "shorthand." And as it turns out, it stands for a lot more than just "Year 2000."

The problem is that -- not exactly simultaneously, but all within the next couple of years -- a few other problems are likely to crop up. Without predicting a specific order:

# # #

1 ) The fractional reserve banking system that dates back to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1912-13 is in deep crisis. Buoyed by the supposed guarantee that the International Monetary Fund ( our long-suffering friends, the U.S. taxpayers ) would bail out any failures, our "private" bankers ( and those of Japan ) have been recording trumped-up double-digit returns by loaning billions to such bankrupt chicken farms as Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico.

These loans are no good. And they are pyramided and leveraged atop one another like something out of Dr. Seuss. In this country, too, the pursuit of ever-higher returns and the presumption that everyone can live the good life on credit have encouraged foolish loans and investments based on the notion that the federal government "insures all deposits," and that we can always pay off our debts with that raise we hope to get next year.

Once these assumptions start to unravel, the only debate will be whether to describe the fallout with references to "dominoes," or that old favorite, the "house of cards."

Remember, as Jimmy Stewart explains to his depositors every year in "It's a Wonderful Life," the current system is based on the assumption ( are you noticing that word crop up a lot? ) that only a small percentage of depositors will ever want to take all their money out at the same time. Otherwise, the banks would be, well, bankrupt. This kind of fraud is only legal because the government specifically licenses people to do it, on the theory that it "creates more credit, to promote economic growth."

2 ) Then comes that old stalwart, the New York Stock Exchange. Prices there have been many times what can be justified by traditional price-to-earning ratios for years. That sounds arcane, but what it means is
that few investors are buying stocks these days because they've always wanted to own a piece of Hammermill or Coca-Cola, and look forward to reading the annual reports and living off the dividends in their golden years.

Dividends? Mere pennies! Folks buy these stocks today because the guy who's selling them made an 18 to 21 percent return in 1997, and the buyer hopes to realize 18 to 21 percent when he sells them in the year 2000.

When the holder of a mutual fund can no longer even tell you what products or services are offered by the underlying firms that issued the stocks in his or her "portfolio," what you have is a "bubble." Think tulip bulbs, Everglades building lots, Cabbage Patch dolls, baseball cards, beanie babies.


# # #

3 ) Today's dollar is intrinsically worthless. First it was made of gold; then it said "pay to the bearer in gold;" then silver, now it's a certificate redeemable for exactly nothing. Dollar-denominated Treasury bonds are also intrinsically worthless. They are merely a promise to tax our children or grandchildren to pay us back in still more paper -- Libertarians call them "extortion futures."

Bill Clinton is one of the luckiest men in history ... so far. Most rational ( non-Keynesian ) economic models would predict that -- at the rate at which the United States has been printing and passing worthless green
paper for the past 30 years -- we should be in the midst of a hyperinflation that would make the Weimar Republic look boring. But the funniest thing happened: All over the world, people love and respect
America as the font of freedom, and figure the dollar must really be worth something -- certainly more than their worthless domestic ruble or zlotny. So they hide dollars in their mattresses. Those dollars don't come back to these shores to bid up the price of American goods. So we're fine ... so far.

But there's a reason why the guys who get arrested by your local bunko squad are called "con artists." Their stock in trade is "confidence."

Remember Y2K? Imagine now that the ATM machines stop working. Since the nation's major railroad switching yards are now entirely computerized -- the old manual switches were torn out years ago -- the grocery store runs out of fresh produce. Some computer messes up at the sewage treatment plant, and before they can figure out a manual override some sewage backs up into the reservoir. Suddenly you're warned to boil your cooking water, like some barefoot Third World peasant. Without explanation, the phones go dead.

Long lines form as folks start panic-buying remaining supplies of gasoline, kerosene lanterns, and canned goods -- price no object. There are a few fistfights over the last rolls of toilet paper. Pressed by jealous
mobs to "do something," blustering politicians declare that anyone who stores too much stuff is a "hoarder." Neighbors are encouraged to turn in neighbors -- offered a reward from the seized goods when they're
"redistributed."

Every electronic alarm in the city goes off all at once, leaving police and fireman scurrying around, clueless. Some looting starts -- after all, it's the "hoarders" who are the real criminals, right? TV pictures of all this go out overseas, until the broadcasts are limited "to prevent panic."

What has just been lost? "Confidence." Now folks want to draw out their bank accounts in cash. They want to sell their stocks ... but how can everyone sell when the prices are falling so quickly that there are no
buyers, and the phone lines to your broker are tied up for days on end?

4 ) There is no "Social Security Trust Fund." The thief you keep sending back to Congress helped them spend it all. Already, the retirement age is being raised, and there's serious talk of "means testing" payments -- only making full payments to the drunks and losers and compulsive gamblers who accrued no other savings or assets. Kind of like taxing all the industrious little ants, but only paying off the lazy grasshoppers. Sound like a "guaranteed annuity" to you?

Assurances of ongoing "Trust Fund" solvency are based on the optimistic assumption ( there's that word again ) that Social Security payments by younger workers will continue at current levels. But what if there's a recession, with big layoffs? What if the computers at the IRS are rumored to be down as of late 1999? What if lots of people decide to just stop filing and paying federal taxes in early Year 2000, on the theory, "They're off line, anyway. If we ALL stop, they can't come find ALL of us"?

( This would never have happened in the 1950s, of course, when American taxpayers -- generally paying less than 5 percent of gross income so you could still support a family on one salary -- considered it "our"
government and were proud to do their patriotic duty at tax time. But since then the liars have brought us Vietnam, Watergate, Chinagate, Filegate, Ruby Ridge, and Waco ... IRS auditors and drug police routinely referring to average Americans as "scum" and gleefully seizing our homes, businesses and bank accounts, tens of thousands of young people jailed for marijuana despite popular votes to legalize the stuff, defendants railroaded by smug federal politician-judges without even being allowed to read the Bill of
Rights to their juries.

Still consider it your "patriotic duty" to feed this beast with half of what you earn? Or did you think your pal the congressman was suddenly, desperately searching for "an alternative to the IRS" just out of the
goodness of his heart? )

And what happens now to the carefully-drawn charts that show Social Security is "sound until the year 2012"?

# # #

Irresponsible speculation?

If so, I'm not alone. Appearing in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Nov. 17, U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, chairman of a Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, said turn-of-the-century computer glitches could cause "an economic downturn" in the United States and abroad.

"Potentially, this could tie up huge parts of the economy," Sen. Bennett told John G. Edwards of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, after a private meeting with executives at the Comdex computer trade show. "There will be a problem. There is no question that we can't fix everything that needs to be fixed ( over the next 14 months ) ."

Sen. Bennett told the newspaper he believes less developed countries in Asia, Africa and South America will be most affected by Y2K problems, though they're reportedly "working hard" to resolve the computer glitches. "My current assumption is that the United States will overcome this without overwhelming, crippling problems," the senator proclaimed.

Then he said he is also concerned about how the millennium bug will affect the health care industry.

"I wouldn't want to get sick in some rural hospital," the senator said, cheerily.

Meantime, the Sacramento Bee reported ( also on Nov. 17 ) results of an August poll that shows most California cities and counties have a plan to eradicate the year 2000 bug ... "but less than half have set aside the money to pay for it."

Feeling reassured?

Into this potential maelstrom, toss three wild cards:

1 ) If Americans, hypothetically told at some future date that stocks and bonds have fallen to one-third of their previous nominal values, could be counted on to behave like sophisticated, diversified investors, saying "Oh well, you win some, you lose some," then the market could indeed fall by two thirds without causing a meltdown.

But the behavior of large groups of people, once they start moving, is rarely so rational. Would you want to be the last one on your block to cry "Sell"?

When a market crashes, folks lose their jobs. What happens then to folks who have no hard savings or supplies but plenty of debt ... who have barely been keeping their heads above water? What liberties -- yours as well as theirs -- would they then gladly trade for a steady supply of hot porridge?

2 ) The kind of people who gravitate to government "service" never voluntarily accept blame, but they ( start ital ) are ( end ital ) always looking for ways to expand their power. Can you spot any aspects of these "Y2K"
scenarios that might give government agencies an excuse to seize more power; to further restrict our freedoms under the guise of "offering relief and restoring order"; and then to blame the whole situation on someone else. "Greedy capitalists," perhaps, who have been operating with "too little regulation"?

3 ) We will be increasingly reassured that "the best minds" are hard at work re-writing computer code to prevent any of this from happening. But computer nerds and denizens of the Internet are, in my experience, the most free-thinking, libertarian ... even anarchist residents of our little global village. They are immensely confident in their self-sufficiency. And they do not like Big Brother -- especially when he threatens to mess with their privacy and freedom.

So ... what if a few of them are only "pretending" to fix the problem? It may take a village to raise a socialist, but it wouldn't take many Y2K saboteurs to seize this opportunity to "topple the state."

# # #

A long way around to a relatively short answer: No, I'm not a professional financial advisor. But yes, I know exactly what is going to happen. Everything listed above is going to happen. I just don't know
"when" each thing is going to happen, or in what particular order -- which is what you really need to know, if you think about it.

But since there's no real penalty for being "too prepared" -- other than perhaps looking a bit foolish -- I will fearlessly give a little ( absolutely amateur ) advice, which should apply in the face of almost "any" unforeseen emergency. ( And if you start preparing yourself for the smaller emergencies now, at least you'll be part-way home. )

Pay down your debts. Turn a hobby into a second, part-time business ... a small but separate income stream. Diversify. Owning a bunch of "funds" with different names, which are in fact all dollar-denominated electronic blips at some government-regulated bank or brokerage house, is not sufficient. Do you own any bullion-value gold coins ( not coins with grossly-inflated "collector value," but coins priced at no more than twice their meltdown worth ) ? Have you hidden away any bags of "junk silver" ( pre-1965 real silver dimes and quarters, now selling at about four times face value ) ? Do you have a supply of greenbacks somewhere other than "in the ATM?" Enough to live on for a week? A month?

Rich folks can look into Swiss annuities. But even those of moderate means can think about a beat-up looking American pickup truck ... with enough dough left over to stockpile an extra water pump, an extra fuel pump, extra tires and wheels, an extra battery ... and some wrenches, you yo-yo.

Don't panic. Don't sell everything and move somewhere to become an unemployed stranger ... unless you really have the assets, the manpower, and the handyman skills to set yourself up right. Do consider whether you could dig a well ( or drink out of the creek ) and plant a vegetable garden where you live, should things get tough for a time. If not, do you have friends or relatives within driving distance, where such things are possible? Would they take you in if you arrived as an unwashed beggar? For how long?

But what if you were to contact them now, asking permission to store some supplies there, and even to help finance their plans to fix up a room in the loft, to till and fence a bigger garden, or to share the costs and ownership of a four-wheel-drive vehicle? What then?

Do you have water and non-perishable food stored to get you through a week? A month? ( Freeze-dried gourmet camper's fare is fine for the well-heeled, as are surplus Army MREs. But bulk rice, oats, and dried peas in plastic tubs are surprisingly cheap, if you shop around. ) More than a week's supply of toilet paper, soap, and other hygiene products? Pet food?

The doctors and insurance companies don't want you to stockpile the prescription medicines you legitimately need, do they? How hard have you worked at outsmarting them? As a last resort, think "veterinarian."

Do you have alternative ways to heat and light your home, if the power were to go down? ( Residents of blizzard country will actually have a head start, here. ) If not, is that because you look forward to someday living in a "government resettlement camp"?

Could you protect your family and belongings from home invaders, if the police could not be reached? Would your neighbors help? Would you help ( start ital ) them ( end ital ) ? Do you even know their names?

Do you own any firearms? Are they listed on government pre-confiscation lists? Why? Do you know why shotguns and handguns are generally better home-defense weapons than rifles? Do you know with what types of bullets or shells it's best to load such weapons for home defense? Got any? Why not?
Afraid that once you start to learn new stuff it might become a habit?

Dying during a crisis is not the worst thing that can happen to you. I imagine that watching the suffering of those who counted on you to protect them can be much worse.

I'd guess there'll be a few nervous people mid next year.

Sorry about the length of that last post.
There was no url for the article.

I have recently become friends with some of my neighbors. I live in a
downstate ( that's like upper NY, near Vermont and Canada ) NY, in a little
village of about 3,000.

Anyway, one of these new friends works for Niagra Mohawk the supplier of
electric here in NY. He commutes about an hour to work from his 90+ acre
farm nearby. He's in the management of the company, does interesting
things there... and notably has been taking a lot of vacation time. What
is he doing?? Well, they just were delivered their generator, they are
installing fuel tanks, and arranging shipment for their new woodcookstove
( lucky them ) , and working on some of the property... getting it ready.

Ready for what you ask?? Ask this guy, he'll tell you that they'll be off
the grid in 3 months. I wonder why?? Why does the executive of a power
company take all his vacation time to get his farm buffed out, and make all
these capital purchases now??

He must have some inside info.

http://www.cnn.com/US/9811/20/fbi.crisis.center.01/

WASHINGTON ( CNN ) -- As it entered its 91st year with new duties that extend around the world, the FBI on Friday opened a high-tech, $20 million operations center nearly the size of a football field and capable of handling up to five crises at once.

The new Strategic Information and Operations Center -- called "sigh-ock" after its initials -- covers 40,000 square feet on the fifth floor of FBI headquarters on Pennsylvania Avenue. It is 10 times bigger than its two-decade-old predecessor that could, with difficulty, handle two crises simultaneously.

http://nt.excite.com/news/r/981121/06/business-bankers

Pd Supply Deficit Size:

Just checked the supply surplus/deficits for the past few years:

1990 3.8t
1991 3.7t
1992 -0.3t
1993 2.0t
1994 18.5t
1995 13.4t
1996 60.0t
1997 -3.3t
1998 -24t

This looks explosive to me. The deficit has never been near this big EVER. Any reason why Pd will not be a moonshot??

TIA

THC

http://www.smh.com.au:80/news/9811/20/text/business2.html

****RESULTS****
July 1999 POG - 330.35
July 1999 DOW - 6678.57
July 1999 Y2K - 2.92

CHICAGO ( AP ) -- Grain and soybean futures retreated Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade as export concerns continued to weigh on the market. Wheat futures fell sharply amid reports that three African countries that recently received wheat donated by the Clinton administration were reselling much of it to Egypt, one of the largest U.S. buyers. That news helped reinforce concern about export demand even in the wake of continued market talk that the government will purchase more wheat for donation. Wheat exports to date are 11 below year-ago levels, at a time when U.S. inventories are at eight-year highs.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1w.htm

Wheat futures tumbled Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade on expectations recent export demand will make little headway in reducing inventory levels currently hovering at their highest in eight years. On other markets, natural gas futures retreated, while copper advanced. [...] Copper futures rose to their highest level in two weeks on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid market talk that producers plan further cutbacks in the wake of sluggish world demand for the industrial metal.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn03.htm

As it was an escalating global financial and economic crisis and powerful deflationary forces that led the US Federal Reserve and global central bankers to flood the global financial system with liquidity, all signs are that this liquidity is doing little but add to already inflated equity prices, especially in the US. Importantly, there is no sign of any let-up in the problematic commodity deflation.

http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm.htm

Polski Bank Narodowy ( Bank of Poland ) has been quietly purchasing gold.
It is estimated that the Bank is buying as much as twice the amount announced publicly a month ago.

source: Polska Agencja Prasowa ( Polish Press Agency )

This had to have been written by a Goldbug.
---
Whether you own stocks, bonds, property, a business, or art, the situation doesnt change. Whatever you call an asset is valued in money, a paper currency that has a perceivev value based upon a belief that a central bank ( the issuer ) has enough reserves to back it up. These reserves are either other currencies or gold. In most cases its more paper. Very few central banks hold significant gold reserves. Stability only comes from holding assets that are not subject to drastic change. Wealth comes from holding assets that retain a value. An unquestionable value. One that is not too dependent upon the ups and downs of the market place, or loses value because of over supply or lack of demand. Untouchable by the whims of central bankers actions and safe from the antics of errant local bankers. And recognizable from country to country as an asset.

http://www.fiendbear.com/guestpg1.htm

A slight change from yesterdays post concerning the possible action of silver on monday. It looks like a flat opening and a rally to 5.00 Mon. or Tues. then down.

Hey STU; get out of bed ... thanks for the allmusic.com site. I can get lost there for a couple of days. Major concern for blackgold's selling price.... a wti$12+ doesn't do much for the bottom line. Could get nasty. Institutal investors of our industrys risk cap.pools are not happy these days. Any thoughts on when we bottom? My view is we may have a way to go yet +-$1.50 I hope I'm incorrect. This was an interesting week; first time in a long time that gold has gone north and oil south. This aberation held for both volume expansion and price contraction of each commodity. What's with the Okies recycling all of OU's broken down QB'sfrom the 70's into the political arena? Mildren,J.C.Watts..it will probably be Steve Owens mug on TV next!
DONALD: thanks for the dow/golds ratios that show an historical perspective of the '29era. I wonder what the oil/dow ratios looked like a that time? As a ludite to internet research, could you point me in an appropriate direction? Thanks from the freshly snow covered foothills of the Cnd rockies. Grey Cup: Calgary 21 the otherguys 11.

I must down a wee nip'O'nog here in reverence to the pit rum-dog that mauled me last night......when did auratOr move from CranOberries? someone should've let me in on that. i'm miffed. and quite frankly, disappointed. Gulp y drool.

For Friday 20 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR--------------5.28--------------5.41-------------5.19-----------------5.09

Mean GoldLR------4.13---------------4.11-------------3.78-----------------3.46
Gold Lease Rate---1.15---------------1.30-------------1.41-----------------1.63
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.29 ) ------- ( + 0.13 ) ------ ( + 0.08 ) ----------- ( + 0.08 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.35--------------3.50-------------2.70-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.93--------------1.91--------------2.49-----------------2.69
( Change ) -------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ---------- ( 0.00 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate

Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 16th Nov to Friday 20th Nov
GOLD
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month-- | 0.66,,,,,,,0.67,,,,,,,,0.78,,,,,,,,,,0.86,,,,,,,,1.15
3-Month - | 1.08,,,,,,,1.10,,,,,,,,1.15,,,,,,,,,,1.17,,,,,,,,1.30
6-Month - | 1.26,,,,,,,1.28,,,,,,,,1.33,,,,,,,,,,1.33,,,,,,,,1.41
12-Month-| 1.52,,,,,,,1.52,,,,,,,,1.56,,,,,,,,,,1.55,,,,,,,,1.63
SILVER
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month- | 1.08,,,,,,,1.08,,,,,,,,1.28,,,,,,,,,,0.93,,,,,,,,0.93
3-Month- | 2.01,,,,,,,2.06,,,,,,,,2.11,,,,,,,,,,1.91,,,,,,,,1.91
6-Month- | 2.69,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.79,,,,,,,,,,2.49,,,,,,,,2.49
12-Month| 2.79,,,,,,,2.84,,,,,,,,2.99,,,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,2.19
Regards..............Dabchick

Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
16 Nov | 69.21 | 69.41 | 69.15 |
17 Nov | 69.27 | 69.38 | 69.07 |
18 Nov | 69.94 | 70.00 | 69.25 |
19 Nov | 69.41 | 69.94 | 69.23 |
20 Nov | 69.80 | 69.89 | 69.84 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
After the preceding week's sharply upward action when the Index cleared the 68 - 70 trading range, gold decided to take a breather this week and it has done so just below the 70.00 top surface of the range. This left a small two-day island above the 70 support level, but next week if we see a 0.5 gap back upwards from where it closed Friday,the uncanny similarity with the Sep 92 bottoming action would be confirmed again.
Regards............Dabchick

I can tell you from personal experience they are good folks...yup...decent regular no bs folks...Server being taken care of tomorrow evening...go gold, be nice to children and later...bye...

206,000,000,000$US settled. 1/4 of the people in the US smoked in 1994 ( most recent stat ) according to the National Center of Health Statistics. There are about 6 billion people in the states according to the Census Bureau population clock. So that's about 1.5 billion smokers who will no doubt pick up the tab on the tabacco settlement for an estimated 140$US each. Where do I send the check ? Someone told me the other day that I shouldn't smoke because they're passing laws against me, I say they shouldn't pass laws against me, because I smoke, and it's supposed to be a free country.

( cause my brain left me behind for dead ) .........


yes, oil will be higher next year, and around 20. by June 6...I predict this outta' necessity.

Now that politics is officially a popularity contest, all our quarterbacks are in like - flynn.......Butterball Blake's fate is decided tomorrow at a special regents' get-together....will bee veeeery in-ter-es-ding....

dayO.

Ok, goldbugs. Now that we know how much gold Kitco-ites own as a percentage of investment capital, let's find out just how much gold that represents. Please vote at the link below.

http://apps2.vantagenet.com/apolls/poll.asp?id=8112191310

when the market crashes, this guy will be quoted to death:

"This is a very healthy economy,"
Canelo said. And while the consensus is
for 3.5 percent growth in 1999, he thinks
the number could be twice as high.

7% growth?? does he think the US is some Asian tiger economy or something? hmmm.... and has he heard about what's happened in Asia recently?


http://cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/investing/9811/20/q_lookahead/

hmm... the guy was talking about the Japanese not the US economy. still... 7%??

oh, btw, EJ, I'm the dope that voted first on your new poll. poor me has less than 10 oz Au ( in physical that is )

AuratOr move from CranOberriers? From your response I guess he didn't just saw his mug on TV extolling his virtues as a politico. Didn't really catch the drift of the interview ..listening not hearing. Don't get miffed get level and tape an extra strength acetaminophene to it!

Regardin' your excellent remarks'O'Starr yesternight.....I take the privilege of repeating an excellent thought'o'yours....if that's ok?...

Our country's media should be tried and convicted of tampering with the evidence. ( paraphrased )

some powerful thinkin' 'der boss....yes. G&P to YA!!!

Owning some gold is better than none at all, my friend.
-EJ

MOSCOW ( AP ) -- The Russian government today failed to approve any of three proposed versions of a draft budget for next year and called for more revisions, including tax reform and foreign debt payments. The government hopes to complete drafting its 1999 budget by Dec. 1, but it will require more details on the planned tax reform, Economics Minister Andrei Shapovalyants said after a four-hour meeting of key government ministers. ``We have to finalize volumes of ( expected ) tax collections and set new tax brackets,'' he said. Russia has been trying to persuade foreign creditors to restructure at least a portion of about $17 billion payments due in 1999.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpin0e.htm

PINE TOP PERKINS...jammin...Elephants would commit Ivorycide to have this boy spank their keys...YOWZER!!!...expect a call soon...glad ya gots to yak at Vegas...good...good people there eh...

most likely I may never get to Heaven...but now I know the music they are listening to...

are up over 1%! A steady climb throughout the week. Where's Rhody? A Kitco Brabo to Dabchick for supplying us with the numbers. Didn't I read that the ECB may stop selling gold in December? Is this it? Are we here finally? How many times have we thought the gold bull was here before? Too many. Goldbugs, I'm afraid, suffer from a bit of learned helplessness. Maybe this time......

howday! to YA!!! BTW, have you reviewed this Proposed oath of marriage, mi amigo? might want a lawyer to look into it...yes...you may want to change some of da' wording a leeetle bit....heee teeee. all's swell widya? hopesO.

stones tickies ( no security tour ) ..$130. whoooooaaa!! this is more than a plumber makes here in two weeks'O'work on the northside.....G&P.

Pinetop's version of "Chicken Shack" on our album is, as far as I know, the only recording having lyric. historical...yes None'O'da'guys have heard these words before..and Chicken Shack, amongst jazzers and bluesmen, is a huge standard. Howzabout dat' comment we left on the track where he refers to Clapton.....classic!!!! ohmy......

anyhoooooooo. g'mornin' to YA!!! yup. mighty cool 'round 'bout vegas....G&P. muchas garcias ( cabo spelling )

day' call me da' grinder-man...yeeeeehaaaaaaaa!

Envy - There you go with those bad numbers again! "Date: Sat Nov 21 1998 10:23 Envy ( Tobacco Deal ) ID#219363: 206,000,000,000$US settled. 1/4 of the people in the US smoked in 1994 ( most recent stat ) according to the National Center of Health Statistics. There are about 6 billion people in the states according to the Census Bureau population clock"
SIX BILLION people in the states? I think not. ( Elsewise I'm definitely getting on next plane to New Zealand ;-0 ) )

of a new law, at least in Texas, that forbids smoking in your car while driving? I've had two people tell me about it. Sposed to take effect Jan. 1.
gb

my emotional state after Starr's universal lesson in the correct value of truth .......hell, my wife thought I had just got a call from the draft board or somethin'....yup, I was pretty shook up. a blabberin' studio..... G&P to YA!!!

Rhody - I don't understand your the statements in your post @:
"Date: Sat Nov 21 1998 07:45
rhody ( @ sharefin: I must admit that I have mixed feelings about the ) ID#411440:
Copyright  1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
compliancy of financial institutions. I am presently withdawing
$500 cash twice a month ( converting some of it to silver coin ) in
order to slowly accumulate a cash pool of 5 to 6 thousand at least
6 months ahead of Y2K. I may increase that to the limit of my
bank branch cash pool limit for withdrawls next year."
Do you mean to say that you are restricted on the amount of CASH you are ALLOWED to take out of your bank account? In CANADA? I'm missing something. You just HAVE to be speaking of something like progressively cashing in a GIC ( CD ) so as not to lose interest or incur penalty. Right?

from below next week. Probability for that to happen is very high. The price has to stay above $296 for a few more days. This "cut from below" happened last time in 1993.
I learned all the above from the USAGOLD site.
Does anyone know what happened in 1993 to the gold price after this cut from beloe was accomplished?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/players2.htm


A mighty Gulp to the Late and Great United States Senator Sam Ervin!!!

jims.O.....I concur with your analysis of the impeachment...I consider lying under oath in a courtroom as impeachable.. period. case closed, gavel breaks.......... ( bang ) period.

g'dayO! y G&P to YA!!!

Alberich - in 1993 the POG went from 325 to over 400 in a few months. In my not so humble opinion we are going to do it again, for while the world thinks gold is dead I percieve a 'twitch' in that slumbering metal. A 'twitch' manifested in many ways. Gold is rising or holding value against all currencies instead of being in a rotation as it has for so long. That 'twitch' is seen in the rapidity of covering moves on Comex such as yesterday's $1.00 move in a few minutes before the close. Indeed, the shorts are very nervous. They should be.

Yes, we have all thought this before. But this time is different! Right?

Actually it may well be. Sometimes the movement in gold prices is like watching a giant ship in the ocean. It hardly seems to be moving, let alone turning, but when such things happen the momentum behind them is powerful.

This time is different. Euro is coming. Dollar is going down. Gold demand is soaring. Comex is out of eligible gold ( whoops did I say that! ) . Gold properties in the US are below dirt cheap prices. Gold exploration in US virtually nonexistant.

Thanks for that long post. I've been looking for "pithy" items to help convince family and neighbors.

Greenspan says euro's success depends on central bank's credibility

FRANKFURT, Germany ( AP ) -- Siding with his European counterparts, the top U.S. central banker said Friday that the success of Europe's single currency, the euro, depends on the credibility of the new central bank that will watch over it.

Pointing to the German mark, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said its strength was based on the reputation of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank.

"If the European Central Bank fails to inherit the reputation" of the Bundesbank, then the euro could be "undercut," Greenspan said via a video link from Washington to a banking conference in Frankfurt.

But he also said "I have considerable confidence that the advent of the euro will be a successful one."

Turning to foreign-exchange rates, Greenspan called it an "illusion" to think target zones for the world's major currencies could succeed.

"One might argue it's a desirable goal, but not credible or feasible," Greenspan said.

The idea is favored by Oskar Lafontaine, the finance minister in Germany's new center-left government, who views it as a way to avoid harmful swings in financial markets.

Greenspan said the money that central banks would need to defend the foreign-exchange target, coupled with other technical problems, make such a program "extraordinarily difficult to manage."

He also said interest rates would be a difficult way to manage target zones. If Europe were in a recession, for example, and its currency was at the lower end of the band, it wouldn't want to raise interest rates to defend the currency. Higher interest rates tend to boost demand for a country's currency.

The Bundesbank, which maintains it must remain free of political interference, has ignored recent calls by Lafontaine for lower interest rates among the countries participating in the euro to promote economic growth.

On Thursday, the Bundesbank left its key interest rates unchanged, just two days after the Federal Reserve trimmed its rates for a third time in recent weeks,

Interest rates across much of Europe are already easing as central banks bring their rates in line with the low levels in Germany and France, Bundesbank president Hans Tietmeyer told the conference.

Tietmeyer added that a convergence of interest rates in coming weeks is essential as the euro will start as a banking-only currency on Jan. 1.

Tried to look for my question on derivatives info, but no such luck. Thanks for the site though. I appreciate it.

What troubles me about the derivative situation is:
1 ) People don't seem to understand it - its too complicated
2 ) They understand the simple utility of some of the instruments, but don't see the effective "snarling" of transactions that get compounded by "divisional reporting", "Inter-company Reporting", "Global Pooling", and other fractional/combinitorial devices.
3 ) There is a blurring of time focus and risk focus differences between "trading" management, and "financial" management.
In other words, sometimes it's just easier to cut the hair off the dog, then try to unsnarl it.
As an example. Consider a hypothetical multinational oil trading company, The trader in London might be long 6 Gulf crude cargos. He has price risk, usually little currency risk since all trading in USD, and some counter-party performance supply risk if the supplier doesn't/can't perform. If the cargoes are on the water, unsold, there are other risks, usually insurable. The trader in Los Angeles might be short 6 cargoes of fuel oil to Japan. Let's make an assumption that the total dollar amount of both positions is essentially equal, and that the total number of barrels is essentially equal. ( of course it won't be, but it will be close enough to make my point ) .
Depending on the Management style of the company, the company could decide to hedge the position in London by selling crude futures, and hedge the position in Los Angeles by buying Fuel Oil Futures. ... or
They could say that "Overall, are positions as to dollars and barrels is effectively hedged".
The point all the above is alluding to is that there are differences between what short term TRADING management sees as effective risk protection, and what FINANCIAL management sees as effective risk management.
Unless you know the management risk/hedging strategies, you don't know the risks involved. Since MANY ( and in some industries most ) of the swaps/exchanges/ and other "grey" derivatives are OFF MARKET, we have no way of knowing what fiscal policies have been adhered or not adhered to. Put this into a general stewpot of management style that lets each division manage its own profit, stir well with a dose of over-zealous computer programmers, close the lid on the pot because "It's just too damn complicated to understand these derivative "wizards", and turn up the heat. THIS is the dinner that I'm afraid will be tough to eat. When the pot is opened, it just may be empty.

Early this morning Selby and Auric and perhaps others ( aurator? ) were discussing price predictions of Gold. Conclusion: - One guess is as good as another. Most of the time this is a fact. Even a reasoned estimate is still a guess due to the fact that NO ONE is privy to ALL the necessary inputs to the equation of a future price whether it be two days from now or two months from now. Beyond two months, is, let's face it, just an out and out quess. There is at the present moment, however, one impressive and obvious trend in price. Whether this is out and out manipulation or just the counterbalancing of the many positives and negatives daily affecting the price I will not speculate in this post. The obvious trend that I refer to at present is a stable price. Look at the weekly closing prices, ( quoted from Captain Bill's Privateer Gold Commentary of Nov. 13,1998 found at http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html ) , since Sept. 11 1998.
Sept. 11 - $US 294.40
Sept. 18 - $US 291.40
Sept. 25 - $US 293.70
Oct. 02 - $US 300.50
Oct. 09 - $US 296.30
Oct. 16 - $US 300.00
Oct. 23 - $US 292.70
Oct. 30 - $US 293.70
Nov. 06 - $US 294.00
Nov. 13 - $US 296.50
Nov. 20 - $US 295.60 ( from Kitco )
The final close of 1997: $US 289.90

Based on the above it would seem a fairly safe bet that, unless something catastrophic happens, Gold will close 1998 safely in its box somewhere between $US 290 - $US 300.

Having made my reasoned 'guess' as to 1998's closing POG, believe it or not, I still agree with Arden and many others here that sometime 'soon' we will explode out of the box.

What would I do if you weren't there to keep me straight. No, there aren't 6 billion people in the US, there are 6 billion people in the world. : ) I looked at the wrong number, it's 271 MILLION people in the US. So lemme see, if that 206 billion in tobacco money gets passed through to the US smokers, it's not 100 and some bucks per smoker, it's, hmm, lemme see, *punches calculator*, about 3000$US per smoker. I liked the first number better, maybe we can convince the rest of the world population to pay the settlement cost.

11/2/1998
POG in yen = 33790.5
AND
Price of Platinum in yen = 39000.1
And that is a difference of 5209.6 yen. So what?

11/2/1998
POG in dem = 483.349
AND
Price of Platinum in dem = 557.869
And that is a difference of 74.520 d-marks. So what?

Well, we one converts 5209.6 yen into USD at the going rate on 11/2/98, one has $45.152.
And
When one converts 74.520 d-marks into USD at the going rate on 11/2/98, one has $45.152.

Back in a bit with more STRANGE happenings in the ORDERLY world of "free floating" [LOL] currencies.

And NO, the 11/2/98 is NOT a 'one-off'; it goes on and on and on, day after day, week after week...

Mooney***** - I really don't know how to explain it. I look at gold this past month and get this real funny feeling that something is on ( as they say elsewhere ) . I look at my short term charts which include my own short term oscillator and realize that gold isn't giving a trader a chance to get in cheap. It just keeps moving away, like it did Friday. Not much, but just enough to keep it away.

I read the Kitco Kontrian Komments and say, why is gold sneaking up? We Kitcoites have analysed this thing to death. We can come up with every reason why it should go up and every excuse why it didn't! Until now. Now that dead yellow monster in the corner that AG has clubbed to death is twitching, and AG doesn't have any more clubs.

If the price of gold is cheaper or more expensive in one currency
than another, the arbritrage opportunities align it.

What was that term? Barbaric Relic? I am afraid that this may be true. While gold may continue to be an instrument used by countries to keep each other honest with their fiat currencies, its use by individuals is probably impractical. The production, distribution and consumption of goods and services have become so geographically remote from each other, that only electrons can span the distances in a practical period of time. The implications of this system on freedom and privacy are monstrous. The days of any kind of cash are numbered. Gold and silver will be seen as instruments of drug dealers, terrorists, tax cheats and right wing Christian lunatics ( who will see the cashless society as the mark of the beast ) . In short private gold = criminality. Under this scenario, confiscation is a foregone conclusion. Our only hope is Y2K, although I fear that the attendant discomfort will only cause the sheep to surrender their few remaining liberties for the protection of the wolf.

I'm sure there will always be a need for gold and for cash that can't be saved as a transaction record on some computer somewhere. The more the pendulum swings one way, the more inertia it'll have when it swings back. I've heard it said that there will always be a need for anonymous cash as long as there are politicians.

I didn't say that there would be no need, I merely said that its use would be criminal. Gold = freedom = crime. If two things are equal to the same thing, they are equal to each other. I liked the reference to politicians.

I want to give silver dollars for gifts this year but I am concerned people will not understand the value and think that I am jipping them by giving them something that is worth about $1.00 per coin.Have any of you ever given silver, and if so what was the response. My intention is to hopefully sway some of them out of the equities market. I would do gold but I am not Warren Buffet and feel that a 1/4 eagle wouldn't do what I am trying to do.

types I live at 291 West Shore Drive, Huntington, NY 11743 phone 516-425-7185...I am not worried about you at all...I am an AMERICAN and DAMNED PROUD of it...and I will cling to the frozen ground and find warmth after I give you my blanket...

Knock at the door, knock at the door. Here they come to take one more, one more. In many a time, in many a land, with many a gun in many a hand....

Old song from the '60s. Don't remember the rest, or who wrote it.

This might be of interest : )
Date: Sat Apr 25 1998 14:22
Cyclist ( Turning points ) ID#339274:
FWIW.Old Gold you can take note the dates that might be of import
The week of August 23 a top ,Nov21 a sharp bear rally
in goldstocks lasting 2 weeks at the most.
The bottom of goldstocks probably the end of February 99.
The physical gold should rise in value vis a vis other
asstes.

Mapleman
I have given some Morgan dollars dated from last Century as gifts. Noone here knows what a Morgan dollar is, but, when they take a look at a date like 1879 their eyes pop! Although I've never been rude ( in our culture it would be ) to ask what they think it is worth, I've heard from others that the recipients believe the gift is much more valuable than the few dollars it cost, because of the date.
LGB and other purists should skip the next couple of lines. Because there are millions of common date circulated Morgans, I have taken a few to my jeweller friend ( who's making a Pt Bezel for a 1/10 oz Pt Koala for another gift ) and have got him to polish them using ultrasound. I am not sure that I don't prefer the patina of the ages to a shiny surface, but they sure shine brilliantly.

Umm
I have not caught up on the Cranberries thread yet, have I moved?

I might be wrong, but, was it you that gave a running narration of getting a gold contract filled ,through COMEX?
If so, can you tell us what to expect?
If not, will you sell me some of your placer gold?
.
gales@execpc.com

Morbius
Keynes is usually credited with coining the phrase "the barbarous relic" when describing gold. I've never found his original reference, and would be obliged if someone could help me.
I have found ANOTHER reference that might pre-date Keynes'

David Tice
November 21, 1998

"these technical accounting issues are ultimately resolved"

"Chainsaw" Al Dunlap, October 20, 1998, regarding the restatement of Sunbeam earnings from the fourth quarter of 1996 through the first quarter of 1998.

Those darn "technical" accounting issues. Without them, Sunbeam could claim it earned $1.45 last year instead of losing 8 cents. And without such adjustments, Sunbeam 's stock might still be selling near its high of $53 instead of somewhere south of $7 a share.

Unfortunately for its stockholders, the accounting adjustments were necessary to inject a dose of reality into Sunbeam's financial statements. It seems that in order to beef up 1997 results, Sunbeam "roped in" revenue that rightly should not have been recorded until 1998. This included counting as "sales", cooking grills that never left the companys own warehouses.

Sunbeam also shifted a chunk of the prior year's revenue forward. So after borrowing from the years on either side, 1997 turned out to be a very good year for Al Dunlap's company. At least before the technical adjustments.

In addition to moving around revenue, Sunbeam's original accounting for its 1996 restructuring shoved 1997 costs back into 1996. This included writing down to zero, $90 million worth of inventory. As a result, costs were understated, allowing profit margins to appear healthy and net income to beat Wall Streets expectations.

At least that was the case until Sunbeam's auditors found what it missed the first time around. Upon further review, the auditors restated earnings from the fourth quarter of 1996 through the first quarter of 1998.

The Sunbeam story is important, not because it is so outlandish, but because outlandish accounting has become all too common. In fact, it is now standard for companies to use acquisitions as a chance to inflate future earnings, much as Sunbeam did. This aggressive accounting means reported numbers are less reliable, meaning that the value of companies beating Wall Streets estimates by one and two pennies has become practically meaningless.

But why all the "book cooking", and why now?

I believe that the proliferation of stock options has given managements extra incentive to keep Wall Street happy. Stock options represent at least 45% of executive compensation ( according to a 1996 study ) , and there's nothing like meeting Wall Street expectations to drive a stock ( and its options ) higher and higher.

Another powerful incentive is Wall Street's interest in "making a killing" in the investment banking business. Deals get done when companies generate good earnings and stock prices are high. The last thing an investment banker needs before a merger deal is a negative earnings surprise. In addition, the so-called independent auditors are under so much pressure to agree or leave that they seem to be adding less value than they once did.

Finally, few Wall Street analysts are interested in a panning a stock for creative accounting or any other reason. According to Business Week, only 1.4% of Wall Street recommendations are negative today, down from 30% in 1982. And today's analysts give a "thumbs up" almost 75% of the time, even with today's sky high stock market valuations and uncertain economic prospects.

So how do companies do it?

One of the most common ways a company can turn mediocrity into excellence is by writing off "in-process research and development." This is where the acquiring company claims the research performed by the acquired entity is worthless and won't lead to any new products. The write-offs are taken even as management reports to shareholders the benefits of the merger.

This kind of accounting treatment is not just cocktail chatter for CPAs. As an acquirer, 3Com got a 20%+ boost to earnings by immediately writing off 88% of the entire acquisition cost of four companies, rather than writing down this R&D expense over four years ( a practice that was once the norm ) . When Novell used the same aggressive tactic in fiscal 1996, it boosted its income six-fold.

This trick is increasingly common, according to Baruch Lev, a New York University professor and expert on accounting machinations. According to his 1997 study, 389 companies have taken such write-offs in the 1990s, compared to three in the 1980s. Incredibly, the average size of the R&D write-off amounted to 72% of the acquisition price. More incredible still, the accounting gimmicks boosted the earnings of the acquiring company by an average of 22% four quarters down the road.

Accounting footnotes, however, matter little in this kind of bull market. So-called "restructuring charges" have been ignored by Wall Street for years, regardless of their composition. It certainly ignored Sunbeam's acquisition-related write-offs. The stock fell only after the gimmicks ran out and the company reported a surprise loss in the first quarter.

Instead, Wall Street is infatuated with reported earnings, failing to consider that write-offs reflect a real decline in shareholders equity. When management decides its net equity is worth less today than a year ago, either market conditions have changed or they have mismanaged the company. Ultimately lower asset and equity values mean less earning power.

The market has also overlooks restructuring costs that are suspiciously ordinary. Take Kellogg, a company with more special charges than raisins in Raisin Bran. The company has taken nine "non-recurring" charges to "streamline" operations over 11 quarters. In a recent quarter, these "unusual" items amounted to 31 cents a share.

Over a five-year period, General Motors wrote down more assets through restructuring than it earned from operations. Lucent took a $2.8 billion charge in 1996, more than enough to smooth out otherwise bumpy earnings going forward.

The appropriate response to "So What?" is two-fold. First, low quality earnings are less valuable. And because accounting shenanigans are common, the financials of more and more companies are suspect. Certainly any company involved in a merger has had the opportunity to load up on charges  items Wall Street does not care about  to inflate their earnings for quarters down the road. As a result, even today's extraordinary valuations of many, many companies are actually understated. Because companies are inflating results, P/E ratios are actually higher than they appear.

Second, and perhaps more important in the short term, the SEC is tiring of this accounting gimmickry. In an October speech, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt went so far as to call today's financial reporting, "a game of nods and winks" among managers, auditors and analysts. Levitt warned that kind of game "runs counter to the very principles behind our market's strength and success."

Levitt went on to outline an 8-point "Action Plan" to make financial statements more meaningful. The plan will specifically address "in-process R&D" abuses and restructuring charges. The plan also provides incentives for more independent auditors and corporate audit committees.

Already, the SEC has acted on what it perceives as excesses. It was the SEC who told McDonalds its $190 million charge for kitchen refurbishment was bogus. Updating a kitchen, regulators argued, seems like the normal cost of doing business for a restaurant. Consequently, McDonalds has to account for these expenses are they are incurred. A Merrill Lynch analyst figures the more conservative accounting will slice $25 million a quarter from McDonalds bottom line.

The SEC was also responsible for talking down AOL's acquisition-related charges. The company wanted to write off 66% of the purchase price of two companies. The SEC disagreed, and AOL cut back the write-offs to 25% of the total acquisition price.

The bottom line is that tougher accounting rules will mean more negative earning surprises. And companies that have depended on inflated earnings will be least able to keep the game going. For example, when Disney talked down analysts expectations for its March quarter, it blamed lackluster movie releases. An analysis by Barron's revealed the more likely cause was the end of accounting benefits created by the merger with Capital Cities/ABC. Under Disney's complicated scheme, the company created a $2.5 billion reserve to soak up costs that would otherwise flow through to the income statement. With this benefit behind them, Disney must rely on actual operations to drive earnings higher.

Given the number of mergers in recent years, more companies could soon see the end of merger-related benefits. Couple the exhaustion of gimmicky reserves with an SEC crackdown on acquisition-related hocus pocus, and the negative earnings surprise may be the biggest investment story of 1999.

The bear market rally of late October provides investors with a great chance to become even more prudent with their investments. Earnings comparisons going forward will look increasingly bleak, even with aggressive accounting. As a result, the SEC's zeal for cleaner financials could not come at a more inopportune time for managements seeking to keep Wall Street happy.

David Tice can be reached at 888-778-2327 or tice@prudentbear.com

aurator is on the money. I have done the same as he. You should consider the recipient, though. If they have no sense of history, and are moneygrubbers, then, I would say that they would be happier with a Chinese-made trinket.
I have given my children's teachers Morgan dollars, and one-ouncers, for an addition to the gifts that my children choose for them.
They have yet to revile my gifts. Morgans are a good choice for teachers, as, it piques their interest in the origin, and will start them on a path of sound money fundlementals.
There is a great history associated with silver/gold at the issuance date of the common Morgans.
Tolerant1 started me on this.
...............................I wonder how many converts he has made?

2BRO2B said, "If the price of gold is cheaper or more expensive in one currency than another, the arbritrage opportunities align it."

What we are looking at is the alignment between SDR, XEU, USD, JPY, CNY and DEM: the DIFFERENCE, in EACH currency's price of two commodities--in our example platinum and gold, WHEN translated into a common currency, is equal to the difference in the other currencies on that day. Sorta like an international Fiat Drill Team. {:- )

And when it gets a couple of significant numbers difference ( which is what the things we take as decimal places are ) the Powers-that-be RELEASE a PRESSURE-RELIEF valve and we get a lil pop-up in plat or gold. This is certainly a kind of arbritrage, if you will, but arbritrage on a VERY
grand scale.

Thanks guys,I like the idea of Morgans. Gotta go I burnt myself on the fireplace.

Recent article by Martin Arstrong again argues that deflation probably will continue through the year 2000 and gold could fall to $200. Expects a lot more selling from Europe and the IMF.

Looking further out Armstrong asserts that inflation will start to pick up strongly by late 2000. He projects that oil prices may reach $80 per barrel by the year 2007 and that the yellow will soar along with black gold.

With so many red-blooded, flag-waving, America -love it or leave it, independent libertarian merkans on the board who tilt at socialism wherever that ghoul appears on the horizon, pray tell, why do you put up with the FDIC?

I would have thought that the FDIC guaranteeing bank deposits up to $100K per account would be one of the greatest socialist evils in merka today. No?

Funny how easy it is to support a safety net that protects capital, while destroying safety nets that protect the weakest human beans.

I'm not suprised from an earlier link, reading that the FDIC can actually only cover $1.2K of the $100K. But, think about that number. How many bank accounts in merka? Is 100 million in the right ball park? From a pop of 260 million, 100 million seems about right. Okee, so, unless my math is off ( possible ) this means that the FDIC has access to assets/cash of $120,000,000,000. Oh sure.

Someone should expose the FDIC for the paper tiger it is.

outh, we owned it ..........anyway...Zareh Sourian and ME had this very conversation...I was 5...no matter...long before the crush...I am he that put the powder on Butterflies WINGS...within that gentle thought I send to you and yours My wish of comfortNamaste...

Our company mission is to turn paper into gold! Not gold into paper. We are not selling any placer gold at this time.

I believe the individual who gave us the blow by blow account with Comex was from the fine State of Texas if I recall. It was not I.

http://www.infinitytrading.com/may5.htm

life is good...stop on...welcome...

Donald
Thank you for your reply. I've long wanted the citation for Keyne's "barbarous relic" quote. I've found this from 1901, Bill Hayward talking of the Randlords:

The barbarous gold barons--they did not find the gold, they did not mine the gold, they did not mill the gold, but by some weird alchemy all the gold belonged to them!
Big Bill Hayward

It seems possible that Keyne's read this comment about Barney Barnato and Cecil Rhodes' escapades on the Rand High Veldt, which were truly barbarous, and intentionally blackguarded my precious with the Randlords' sinfulnes

yours are the spoken life-feelings of a decent man...when your lips strike each other truth is born...I search within me to find what you represent...CHEERS!!! BRABO!!!

Speaking of gold and oil. Alan Abelson has a very compressed chart of oil in Barron's today. I was struck by how much it resembles a gold chart.

Elephants committing ivorycide to have this boy spank their keys. Brabo!
Pine Top Perkins and Fun Lovin Criminals added to shopping list today.

Does it strike you odd that when the price of gold is $300 USD
or plat $350 USD that the price in other currencies is the same?

http://www.capis.com/features/4f970926.html

Work is strongly indicating that Gold:Platinum:Silver provide
a 'precious' grid on which the stability of the monitored currencies
depends.

It is quite astonishing [at least to me] and certainly NOT what one
expected to discover. But it is there, it is real and one may make
a lil money from the knowing? {:- ) )

I think you're looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

The spot price isn't the 'same', what is the 'same' is the 3p price--which is true for gold, plat and silver. The exact daily
"SAME" is the amount of difference between the POGold and POPlatinum, when converted from whatever currency, using the appropiate daily excange rate, into --for example--USD.

R your eyes glazed over? {:- ) )

explain please

In a word, arbitrage. Right there, in broad daylight, all
day every day for anyone to see.

I now know that I shall perish before I tuck all the Children into Beds that will allow them comfort...relentless is my pursuit...energy unbridled...MY Best is PURE within intention...these soft footsteps making marks in the Hallway are trying...trying to arrive before Richard got Prior... not to awaken you and YOURS...

From the Island that is Long...puppy pads and good feelings...take Care my FRIEND...palms up and trying to support the Dreams of those you Love...

http://www.albertinaplatz.com/

For a number of compeling reasons, not the least of which is
the drum major of our little Fiat Drill Team, the SDR, and further, the Gold/Platinum formula --in ALL the monitored currencies-- looped to the original gold Bretton Woods SDR ( 0.888671 )  This game is controlled
at the highest levels, folks who do not NEED arbitrage...they DEFINE
the money...

Last year Martin Armstrong predicted the gold bull would begin in June 1998. More recently before its strong decline he predicted a dollar Bull. This guy is as good as my 6 year old. Sorry but his credibility is no better than anyone else. I think he works with the Banks and mouths what they want. After all they are his clients.

to you AND yours...the year now is 1634 and I am in the midst of a battle with me Mumm...I fear for the triumph of my conversation as I know she is right...into the lurch...oh yeah...Me Mumm sends her Regards....78 and meaner than battery acid...AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Now to the battle...she is tough...she has bad toast and grits on her side...this is not a function of fashion...

SDRer-- that would be quite a scoop for an enterprising
investigative journalist.

Deflation has only increased gold demand. When the effect hits the financial market ( now bigger bubble ) gold will soar. Marty was dead wrong on his other predictions so shall he here. I am surprised you read his opines given his record and knowing HIS BIAS.

This is one of the most insightful articles I've seen on accounting gimmicry. I've started ignoring "extraordinary" charges over the past couple years, simply because they recur too often to be out of the ordinary. Like most tricks, this one is losing its punch. When a company report extraordinary charges, quarter after quarter, year over year, they are no longer "extraordinary." Unfortunately, the investing public has gotten so used to current P/E ratios they don't realize their solid companies are really houses of cards. Joe six-pack ( no reference to you tol1 ) has been numbed just like my tasty kittery lobster in the ever hotter pot of water.

But it looks like the SEC might have just turned up the heat faster than corporate America expected.

Thanks for an excellent repost Crazy...

and maybe someday there will be a paper that will publish it!

ALL--is anyone else experiencing cyber-strange-things? One of my ISPs is simply 'gone' and the other ( which happens to be AT&T ) connects
at either 115 bps --nice-- or 96 --not so nice--

That is NOT a commemorative coin...and its face value of 100 Lats, when run through the currency exchange rates come to ballpark US $170...damn near the current spot value for gold when you consider the coin is a shade over half-ounce. This coin was introduced as a CIRCULATION coin. The Baltic banking system is a progressive and visionary group...like they stepped out of a page from Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg's "Sovereign Individual".

got gold standard?

TwoBro
Agreed, SDRer's conclusions would be a scoop for a journalist, and probably will be, if past "scoops" are to be relied upon. Coming to the popular press near you soon.

For me, give your Mumm a hug--and let her know it originated at my keyboard, surviving miles of copper wires and maybe a space trip or two. Using the internet...bringing joy because I can. Thanks, T-1!

http://www.mises.org/journals/aen/Aen_wi96.asp

SDRer- I'll be looking for it.

The pyramid scheme has taken new levels of deceit to keep it going. Manipulation of the markets as well as manipulation of accounting numbers to keep this thing going. Smoke and mirrors to cover up the smoke and mirrors.....

Way Overdrawn The world's poorest countries owe international lending institutions and private lenders more than $230 billion. Many of these nations are unable to pay the interest due, let alone the principal. The World Bank has designated 40 countries -- most of them in sub-Saharan Africa -- as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, which should qualify them for payment delays or debt forgiveness. Seven countries have met economic and social criteria worked out by the World Bank to become eligible for a two-year-old relief program. The others continue to struggle under the debt burden, while their populations sink deeper and deeper into poverty.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-11/21/032l-112198-idx.html

SDRer
My ISP ( that's the one with the cuddly name ) recently suffered a hack attack. It lost 4,500 Home Pages from a poota in California, appears some 15 yr old Aucklander has been caught with his fingers on the keyboard, interesting questions of International Law arise, as the NZ Crimes Act is still silent on Computer vandalism and the "crime" took 'place' in Ca. There were no back-ups! I had no ISP for 1/2 a day as they were trying to fix the leaks.

As any grizzled veteran will testify, smoke cover gets cleared by a stiff breeze at the worst possible moments. Kinda like gettin caught taking a dump in the woods.

http://encarta.msn.com/index/conciseindex/30/030b3000.htm

Mr. Grant has finally managed to rise above James Davidson in
my opinion. He has re-arranged his belief system to match the
FACTS of the government-contained depression.

Very interesting, thanks for posting it. I haven't finished it yet,
but it is *right* on so far. A working model for how the economy
is functioning now.

BUSINES SUNDAY program on TV? very interesting segment on the reprocessing of gold, & how it is affecting Aust balance of trade deficit
huge amounts gold coming into OZ from indonesia & Korea...infact the biggest import from Korea is not the car but gold....guess where it is all going....Switzerland & England....looked at www.ninemsn.com.au for transcripts of the program, but they obviously didnt think it was of sufficient import to post them....

Who Cares-- knowledgeable gent, he. Gotta run.

friend...and I put the k and b in kit and kaboodle...my head hangs as you enter because I believe in the sanctity that is you...when I breathe...the same air as you...MY lungs are flushed with all that is GOOD in this life...

Happy Trails...Namaste'...and dig it! for a friend in Jersey...

Object lesson for moi. I am now busy appreciating what DOES work!

Article by Eric Margolis Nov19, 1998

America's Current war-fever over Iraq recalls the brainless
Jingoism of the Spanish-American War: in 1898 " Remeber the Maine!" "let's get Saddam"

Saddam for all his nastiness, today threatens no one, save his own miserable people. He does, however, provide an excellent excuse for keeping a permanent
US military garrison in the Mideast.

Hawks eager to re-bomb Iraq back to the Chaldean era should read the latest South Korean Defense White Paper. it may shock them back to reality.

North Korea, with only 25 million people, fields the world's second largest army: 1,160,666 men, with 3800 tanks and 12,000 guns, and reserves of 7.4 million.
In spite of widespread food shortages and even famine, North Korea continues to expand its conventional forces and weapons of mass destruction.

South Korea, where 37,000 US troops are based, fields an army of 560,000, 2,200
tanks, 4,850 guns, and 3 million reserves. The North has an air force 50% larger ,
but most of its planes are obsolescent.

North Korea, says the paper, has the capabilty to produce 1-2 nuclear weapons ( US intelligence says the North already has 3 devices ) , thousnads of tons of chemical weapons, biologocal weapons and missle delivery systems that cover
all of South Korea, Japan and Okinawa.

The study asserts North Korea is fast enhancing its capabilty to launch a massive suprise attack on the South, backed by widescale ues of chemical waepons and assaults by its 100,000-man commando force.

Most interesting, the White Paper revealed for the first time 640,000 American troops are slated to rienforce South Korea in the event of a war, supported by two full fleets and much of the US tactical Air Force. In spite of this huge commitment, US "two war" strategy still unrealistically calls for being able to fight a second, simultaneous conflict in the Mideast.

It took the US 6 months in 1991 to assemble a force this size for Dessert Storm, a time when the American military was a third more numerous and better supplied than today's hollowed out millitary.

The combined US Army and Marine Corp have only 650,000 man ( half North Korea's army ) . War would mean mobilizing most of the National Gaurd's 364,000 men and 461,000 Army Reserve. Four months minimum would be required to make the National Gaurd's 8 divisions and 18 brigades combat ready.

Thanks to severe cuts in defense spending, UIS warstocks of unglamorous, but vital, munitions and spare parts are criticaly low. Stocks of some precision-guided and iron bombs are said to be below pre-Gulf War levels. Aircraft and ship crews are worked to the limit of endurance; repairs and maintenance short-changed. The overtaxed, undersupplied, underpaid US military is fraying. The Navy, for example is being asked to perform a third more missions with a third less funding.

North KOrea's strategy is to wage a short, supprise war, overrunning the South in 30 days or less - before the US rienforcements can arrive. The key to success or failure is North Korea's ability to neutralize South Korea's eight main airbases and principal ports -particularly Pusan- with chemical/bio warheads delivered by missles, air and suicide commando attack. North Korea also plans commando assaults on vital US support bases in Japan and Okanawa.

In 1997-98, supposedly "starving" North Korea added 13,000 soldiers, 800 field guns, 170 small ships, spy subs, and 900,000 more reservists to its order of battle, while accelerating ballistic missle and chemical weapon production. Its new Taepodong missle can now reach all Japan - and soon , Hawaii and Alaska.

The US military was forced to waste $8 billion in desperately needed operating funds since 1991 on the sterile, often farcial confrontation with Iraq. This money should have gone for repairs, logistics, and restocking mutitions. Meanwhile, US military capabilities in the Pacific are slipping dangerously, a fact North Koreans fully understand.

If the US gets further bogged down and more exhausted in the
Mideast, North Korea may be tempted to strike.

copyright eric margolis 1998

As per usual the fed and white house has it's hands in the rong soup.

Go gold, get rid of Klinton, love one-another, while there is time.....
Nicodemus

For what it's worth I bought Gold again on friday and went home long. Look for a nice rise on Monday. Don't get carried away, the Bull hasn't started yet thou!

Maybe it's just me today, but I surely fail to grasp the significance of
the delta between platinum and gold being the same in yen, dmarks
or dollars.

This is exactly what should happen in a true free-market with
instant information.

I'm not getting it here, pals. If you had posting some different, then
I would be suspicious of trade barriers, government action, etc.

FYI: The USGovt has already determined since about 1990 that the multiple withdrawels of Senior Rhody are prima facia evidence of illegal drug and money laundering activity. The predicate acts of making several withdrawels that aggregate $10,000 or more is termed "structuring". It is considered money laundering activity to circumvent the USTreasury reporting requirements for cash transactions. It is a federal felony punishable by 10yrs, $250,000, forfeiture of all cash and account credits. The act by Senior Mooney of discussing this issue is criminal conspiracy and subject to similar punishments. If the bank is aware of the regular and periodic withdrawels, they are obligated to secretly report Rhody to Treasury CID. Their failure to do so can result in their being held criminally liable under the Bank Secrecy Act and suffering forfeiture and incarceration. This posting is not BS and is actively being enforced. Most of these laws were enacted by Presidents Reagan, Bush and Cinton. Welcome to Amerika Comrades.

This may stimulate competition among countries to mint a Gold standard "currency". Russia, now Latvia.
http://www.bank.lv/naudas/english/index.html

Eventually some country will get the message that they can
1 ) Make their currency the strongest in the world
2 ) Make their currency an exchange and reserve standard
3 ) Make a mint from the seignorage*

* "The Economist" notes "America derives several benefits from the dollar's dominant international role. There is, first of all, the profits to the state from its monopoly issue of notes and coins. Seignorage from dollars held abroad may be worth some 0.1% of American GDP....$5billion-$10billion," {11/14/98, pg89}

Admittedly US$7 to 8 billion is "peanuts" to the US with a GDP over US$7 trillion. But that potential would be half of Latvia's GDP of about US$15 billion!

The US has over 2 billion US$100 notes held outside its borders.
In the spirit of competition - especially where a monopoly is making lots of profits - there exists a market for 2 billion Gold coins with a face value equivalent to one hundred 1998 dollars

If a country minted 1 billion Gold 1/10 oz coins with a face value equivalent to US$100 {just in case Gold tripled in real value} and a seignorage of US$65 per coin {$5/coin for minting}. and nearly all of these were bought by foreigners they would, as "The Economist" notes for the US, make a lot of profit from seignorage - about US$65 billion or $13 billion per year for five years.

US$13 billion/year is not peanuts to a country like Latvia whose entire GDP is barely more than that. Just getting 10% of the market for "stores of value" worth US$100/coin would result in enough seignorage to float their entire national budget! I would not be surprised and I would be elated if robust competition developed among countries to mint and issue a circulating Gold Standard coin.

P.S. 1 billion 1/10oz coins would soak up 3,000 metric tonnes of Gold.

P.S. Aurator, By minting a NZ$200 1/10oz coin the above US$13 billion/year would carry over half of New Zealand's national budget. {Canada and Australia probably wouldn't be interested since it would only cover a tenth or so of their budgets.}

ur post is informative, however methinks rhody is from Hogtown, Canada.
Perhaps he was referring to limited ATM daily withdrawels.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/98/1116/6211064a.htm

NO MONOPOLY MONEY
"One of the world's great monopolies is about to be broken up, and Bill Gates isn't the prospective loser. In six short weeks, the dollar will begin to meet significant competition from another currency for the first time in more than half a century. The coming of the euro is a defining monetary event. It is also a defining interest-rate, exchange-rate and geopolitical event."
http://www.grantspub.com/GIRO/index.html

Nearly all my sales of Silver Eagles this summer went to American and foreign tourists who bought them for gifts for friends, kids, relatives, etc. For those who couldn't figure out what to give - a Silver Dollar was a good, safe choice. I wish I had a bunch from each year because some customers bought one of each year that I had.

Look at this . In the space of ten minutes, we see two articles posted
about the U.S. dollar. In Grant's, the claim is that the monopoly of
the U.S. dollar is about to be broken up, while in Winston's article,
the claim is that "175 currencies" are being displaced by the dollar.

Well, which is it? Are we dealing in a monopolistic currency headed
towards free market choices, or in a free market of currencies headed
towards a monopolistic dollar?

Someone just doesn't ring right with the "175 currencies" article,
but I can't pin it down. But I don't believe that "competition" with
the Euro will affect the dollar drastically. Oligopolies typically divide
the market up between themselves and then plunder for as much
as they can, knowing that their customers have little choice.

Once the big boy is attacked by another big boy a lot of little wannabes jump into the fray to get a piece of the action. They didn't stand much of a chance alone but with a feeding frenzy they get at least a few morsels and to little countries like Latvia, even a tiny piece of the reserve market would be a windfall to them.

Winston- it's all a plot to keep you confused.

I think I will do it. Hopefully someone will catch the bug. A bug that many of us wish we had'nt had the last few years. Now that I think about it, this may not be such a good idea. What if they all catch it and we are all wrong. I could ruin everyone I love. Scarrry

'It's a Mad,Mad,Mad,Mad World' on the tele.

Reminds me of Kitco.

Swirl
Umm, unless Gollum's got a shipping line too, it could be quite expensive to ship 3,000 tonnes of gold p.a. to and from NZ, oui?

Sector inflation methinks would have to take into account currently the 401k's & IRA's, etc., coupled with the specious corporate accounting practices brought to light here tonight.

http://cnn.com/POLL/results/59061.html

interesting what you can or cannot do without an official declaration of WAR, yes?

Mole-- and thanks for your links. It's like getting
a wheel alignment...

Anyone buying this stuff for future value should buy beanie babies instead.

Ofcourse, those buying on the death should disregard anything here.

I don't say the PM is dead because I relish the grave, only because anyone with an IQ of more then a banana can see this stuff is being held hostage--- and proably for the good of the world. Who knows.

I hurt as much ( proably more ) as any who has bought this junk, and I see no relief. Only more pain. So, for anyone out there, DON'T BUY.. It's a dead horse that will never run.

Jerry

Thanks. Sometimes methinks I post these links for maybe...5 people, 2 of which are probably my neighbors, all blissful adamant political socialists.

anyone new be very careful. This is not a 'free site',. You can be hurt if you don't do your homework. Don't believe anything on this site until you check it out for yourself!!! This is my own opinion, so take it for what it's worth

Just got back from the Randol gold show and spent three days talking with Junior Gold Companies and a number of Gold News Letter Writers and Analysts. The concensus is that we are near the turning point for the Junior Golds and when it occurs we will see quick and furious moves in the share prices of "QUALITY JUNIORS". Had a delightful conversation with an 82 year old gentleman who owned his own brokerage firm for thirty some odd years. He felt that we have three to four weeks of bottom fishing opportunities left and after that things would begin to move. He would not comment on the next leg up in terms of points but he did expect to see the VSE at 2000 points before the year 2000. Needless to say he is very bullish on gold.
Met the owner of Coral Gold at the show and gleaned much information on Nevada, which I feel will be the next major area play for Juniors. If you think this one through what better place in the world for a junior to explore than on a proven Gold Belt known for huge finds, mineable at extremely low costs, in North America, on a trend of land that is Mining Friendly. I understand that PDG have been very active in picking up as much land as possible. I find this interesting in that there was a rumour that they had another hot hole along the trend and nothing was leaked. Often times these Seniors will keep a hole tight until they have a chance to pickup more claims and add to their land position.
I only know of three companies presently drilling now and they are WKR,CLN and CLH. WKR announced there first five holes and although they didnot prove up economic grades they have six more to come. Also of interest is they put together a 3,500,000 unit private placement between holes which tells me someone feels good about the rocks they are looking at. Cln is expected to have assays out this week! Keep your eyes open as should one of these Companies hit ore grade material with some width this play will rival even the Eskay Creek Area Play! If anyone knows of any other Juniors active in the area please post them. Thanks.

I will humbly except the corpus of your "dead" relics for a proper burial in my backyard.

Not except, but accept. Sorry IQ of raisin not banana.

For myself, the coincidence of the yuan and the SDR managing to align so neatly with the robust yen, dollar and dmark, all because of instant data and brilliant forex algorithms wellbut that's what makes markets, yes?

PS--NO conspiracy. Neat and tidy bureaucrats, level playing fields,
etc., etc., etc. {:- )

Isn't that enough evidence to convict gold as the true global monetary standard? Guilty I say.

Still the same--- and in my opinion,anyone buying hard PM is throwing their money away.

...that Australia "...imported $800 million of 'non-monetary gold' in the past 3 months." Mainly from S. Korea and Indonesia.

Hear that?? The world's 3rd largest gold PRODUCER is IMPORTING hundreds of million worth of gold. Sent our BOP to the moon this quarter as well.

Anyone out there understand the shenanigans going on here???

I don't have direct evidence, but I would be quite surprised if the
major brokerages around the world did not have computer programs
running 24-hours day whose specific mission was to search for
differences in commodity prices / currencies, and then trade on
those diferences.

For instance, if I knew I could buy dmarks, then use those dmarks
to buy platinum, and then resell the platinum in U.S. dollars at a
profit of even $.10 a share, I could a rich guy. : )

In fact, I think it was you that posted a listing of platinum prices
in two currencies, probably about three or four months ago, and
I noticed a slight difference between currencies and THOUGHT

'Aha, somebody missed a chance for free money here".

I have backing for its death. The newspapers and governments--- and markets. Do you need more?

Try testing your theory in different commodities. I'd be willing to bet
that you'll find a similar pattern in any widely-used commodity that is
produced in many areas - i.e copper, nickel, wheat, pork, etc.

You'd probably be able to see some major differences in area-specific
commodities, like coffee or bananas. These should be harder to
arbitrage due to the smaller number of producers.

Don't forget the Olympic committee. Their changing the gold, silver and bronze medals to fiat, bonds and IOUs.

They mean nothing. This stuff is dead and no one can give me HARD EVIDENCE to say otherwise. Of course, there will be a bunch of those who will use 'FLUFF' to make their point--- but the fact is, Gold is DEAAD!!!!

That could even mean that this site dies. But this site could already be dead--- just that nobody knows it yet. ? Who knows.

The only true value is a pork belly. All fiat currencies be shown to shift in value relative to the pork belly. The humble pig has always been the primary mechanism of exchange between people through-out the ages, back until the dawn of human-kind. Humans traded the pig before gold, and a pork belly has retained it's value well through the ages, one pig still having about the same purchasing power now as 1000 years ago in most parts of the world. In some places, 20 pigs will still get you a bride. Let loose your gold and silver tokens, and buy piglets. Throw down your fiat dollars for the humble pork belly. Pork, the other white meat, the perfect solution to your currency needs through y2k.

You wan't the truth? You can't take the truth! You WAN'T my value to remain stable. You NEED my value stable. I am out there on that wall defending YOU! Can your dollar do that? NO! There's a code we live by; Fungilibility, divisibility and scarcity. Your precious dollar has none of those. ( In my best Jack Nicolson snarl )

Mole-- refreshing to spend an extended moment in the
clarity of thought of an Hayek or Von Mises. Contrasted
with, say:

http://www.cs.monash.edu.au/cgi-bin/postmodern

It's randomly computer generated postmodernist twaddle
I suspect completely suitable for turning in for a grade.

I wonder...

I wonder why...

I wonder why Weiser is willing to accept paper currency in lieu
of HARD currency, but demands HARD FACTS about gold?

Jeez, isn't a fiat argument good enough for you? : )

Gosh. That about says it all---Humbly
Jerry

The "importing" and reprocessing of gold into Australia has been going on for some time, particularly from Asia.

GOLD the currency of last resort....

Democrat dictionary

http://www.msnbc.com/news/188618.asp

Partisan: A Republican with beliefs.
Extremist: An effective Republican with beliefs.
Bipartisan: A Republican who forsakes his beliefs.
Nonpartisan: A Democrat.
Moderate: ( see Bipartisan )
Investigation: Process whereby facts are obtained and charges made against an accuser by the accused.
Impeachment: 1. ( Contemporary ) An odious, medieval form of political torture to be contemplated only in the case of open presidential espionage and mass murder. 2. ( Ancient, circa 1974 ) Perfectly legitimate means for the prosecution and removal of a Republican president.
Censure: A minor technical rebuke  carrying absolutely no legal or moral weight  reluctantly delivered to a well-intentioned Democrat, for the purpose of covering the political posteriors of his defenders, both Democrat and Moderate.
Perjury: 1. A theoretically possible but practically non-existent offense in which a Democrat witness under oath, like, okay, doesnt tell the whole truth about something that is strictly personal and nobodys business  especially that right-wing zealot Ken Starr. 2. Any sworn testimony of a Republican.
Unfair: Perfectly legal and proper, but disadvantageous to my case.
Fair: Ignoring or bending the rules, advantageous to my case.
Abuse of Power: Republican efforts to apply the laws of the United States of America to a Democratic President.
Obstruction of Justice: Ken Starr.
Public Opinion: The will of the American people, as imagined by Democrats.
The Constitution: A totally flexible, entirely optional document to be invoked ( our heritage ) or disdained ( an embarrassing antique written by dead white European male slave-owners ) depending on situational ethics and political convenience.
Office of Independent Counsel: Unconstitutional violation of our heritage. A hideous mistake and gruesome outrage signed into law by Bill Clinton in anticipation of its being used to do to Republicans what it is, instead, being used to do to a Democrat.
Overzealous: Takes oath of office seriously.
High crimes and misdemeanors: Who the hell knows what old guys in breeches meant? Too ancient and vague to define. In any case, certainly cannot apply here.
Sex: An act that defies definition, but everybody does it.
Adultery: But everybody does it.
Lying to the American Public: Politics
Crime: 1. Prosecution of a Democrat. 2. Ken Starrs investigation.
Justice: 1. Total exoneration of a Democrat. 2. Prosecution of Ken Starr.
Boycott: A destructive, infantile but sometimes politically beneficial tantrum invoked when democratic rules are followed.
Republican Opponent of Impeachment: Sucker.
Morality: No listing found.
Duty: No listing found.
Honor: No listing found.
Patriotism: No listing found.
Right & Wrong: No listing found.

my eyes are swollen of tears...you and M are always ingrained...and as the Sea rushes to steal I know you provide more...you Sir are what thugs like Me realize we can Never witness...if this sounds harsh...perhaps it is...there is not enough cotton, nor thread to placate these hernia's...

things that are me die on beaches so People can dine with the likes of YOU...Lady M and YOU are treasures...for those that would never rob...in a word..PRISTINE...

And I can tell you one thing, gold will never become HARD currency again. This is not the 1900s and you and I are not those who get things done. And I DO NOT encourage FAKE money.

TolerantI 22:14. This says it all.

Youse have twose chersus, take the fart pip or buyz 99.999 tunz a pyritez! Nona differenca!

To establish your credibility, Mr. Weiser.

Can you name the dates that the United States has abandoned
and then re-adopted the Gold Standard, and the list th reason
why gold was abandoned and re-adopted?

...sounds almost Biblical...
2BR0RB/LOL @ postmodernism site, sent the URL to my university attending niece to use as reference... ( it changes everytime! )

Ditto

when showing the graph on the importation of gold into australia,what blew me away,and raised the eyebrows of the anchor...was the huge monthly increase...wish I'd written it down....something like$4mill jan..$800mill
oct....the only person having stats on it was the gov statistician...& then only the quantity..nothing else....

Give me a break

an Apple skin awaits...the bread breathes...and this slice of Cheddar is served JUST for YOU...

I just wanted to make sure that you really have no idea of what you're
talking about.

Thanks for playing.

Mole-- I get a chuckle out of it every time I hit reload.
The generator uses a Dada engine:

http://www.cs.monash.edu.au/links/postmodern.html


I think the same one utilized by much of the mainstream press..

2BR02B - do you think it is possible that this "postmodernism" program
might be generating postings on the Kitco website under the
pseudonym of "weiser"?

I wish I had the words that you do--- more yet--- I wish that I could convey the thoughts that you do

Who Cares...oh, ya mean Bud?

2BR02B: Now hears a link worth more than 4 year degree in political science from an American University, No?

http://www.jim.com/jamesd/bastiat.htm

go gold

If you really want to get them hornets a buzzing tell them Y2k will turn out to be a bunch of overblown crap.

Hungry dingoes near the central Queensland [Australia] coast are stalking neigborhoods in their hunt for food.
Rockhampton Deputy Mayor Jom Rundel said the wild dogs from the Mount Archer National Park on the city's eastern boundary were causing alarm in nearby suburbs. The packs of dingoes are wandering through neighborhoods in search of food, but the people living there are powerless to do anything.
"You can't bait within two kilometers of a residence ... you can't shoot in a residential area," Rundel told the country's ABC radio.
"Plus with the gun laws, no one has a gun anyway."

...enjoyed your play. You write well. You might consider giving your reader

a few more clues via cohesivity before pulling the draw string.........

( Readers like to think of themselves as "a tad quicker than the crowd"......

somewhat like we do here at Kitco. ) ......go gold ....salud!

Peace to you and your family. Do not dispair.I am one who has thrown away their money but, I feel the wealthier for it. I did it for my peace of mind and the protection of my family should paper not hold. I am the one who sets the value of this investment.

Glad the stores still take paper. God knows I have plenty of the other stuff. Still waiting for the price to go up.

In the mean time, I'm haveing a ball buying stuff with worthless paper.

On a more serious note, I could get rich when rich isn't popular. My motto is--- either way, I lose.

I thought I would respond to that poor depressed fellow

who made a posting a little earlier. You sir are mistaken, yes thats right

mistaken. We investors in gold or silver do not have the IQ of a Banana or a Raisin.

We are Super Geniuses! Thats right we are all very smart men and some women.

You see Gold and silver are the only true measure and essence of wealth in the world.

All other forms of wealth are inferior at best and at worst an out right fraud.



Some people would ask well aren't stocks and bonds worth something? And what about real estate?

Well boys and girls apart from the practical value of ownership if and, they are priced in currencies

which are backed by nothing and hence are worthless. I have invested almost $50,000 Cdn dollars in

Canadian businesses and lost it all because those businesses were either worthless or a fraud.

The money that bought the stocks was earned in a stair making enterprise and I gave up a lot of personal

pleasures to save it! So I have a real beef and a legitamate gripe. My second life savings was invested

in silver and some gold which unlike stocks and bonds has some value. As strange as it may seem

I have not lost anything in nominal terms in fact I am a little bit a head of the game.



This fall I read a posting that indicated that rules can and will be changed to prevent

outsiders from profiting from silver or gold. This rude fellow thought that as a trader

he had a devine right to arrange things in order to cheat honest owners of silver and gold.

Well this time its different boys and girls. He who owns the silver and the gold makes the rules.

You see we owners don't have to sell in fact we can take delivery of our stored bullion and withhold it

from the market.



If these politically correct self appointed supergods have any common sense at all they will refrain from

any action which is dishonest and provocative. We owners have rights which must be respected.

If you have any doubts remember Rumania 1990.



Getting back to the original issue one should not be ashamed to own gold or silver for any reason

it is after all worth something where as a lot of other things are at best of transitory value.

As for Governments and financial institutions clean up your act! We expect you to be honourable

after all we are paying your salaries by our taxes and service charges.





Best regards King Steven

If you are paying taxes with worthless paper money, dont get excited.

And for your family, I wish the same. It is our familes that make us hunters, defenders and providers. Let our decisions be inspired by our God.

Ditto

Mole-- that was a long one, paleo-Nock maybe.

I take it you ARE a Yank ?

The US$ is "suffering" from middle aged spread...... the US National debt!

Get the picture, or do you wish to be "free carried" all the way ?

Read a psychiatric dictionary and, just for fun, try and see how many of your character traits match up with conditions in the book !

"GOLD will "never" be a hard currancy"......try chewing a GOLD coin !!

Haggis

Good does not always win--- and some times, 'BAD' wins. What we ( meaning all us good guys ) think, doesn't matter.

Except to ourselves and each other. And I do believe that gold will win.

Your comments would be appreciated. Platinum looks like it is breaking out, gold holding steady and silver breaking down.
http://www.digisys.net/futures/charts.htm

I have planted the seed for future wealth and my IQ feels fine.

Go to a store and buy a soda pop with a gold coin.

Yes I am a 'YANK' God bless

Anyone know how the word 'yank' came about

1947: Joe Dimaggio had yet to sell his first Mr Coffee/ and the Scooter was yet to peddle for the Money Store, Yogi steps up to the plate and 'yank's on his pud, then hits a boop single to take the last game of the series from the St louis Browns, who had Dizzy Dean pitching, who was still shook up from the new 'scientists' telling him that his curve ball did not curve but dropped, to which he replied, " that may be true, but if you go stand behind a tree 60ft,6in. away, I'll hit you with baseballs all day." The same metaphor I suppose can be made to gold and the currency system, though it seems for the past 18 years the curve ball has just been dropping, or is it the other way around?