Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:09 - ID#370236)
Just heard a short news blip to the effect that
North Korea is ready to sell nukes to middle-east in order to
avoid bankruptcy. Hmmmmmmmmm

John Disney
(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:12 - ID#24135)
Gold-Silver ratio
to all
Analysis of the-gold silver ratio
AND the aussie dollar given at

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:14 - ID#411163)
FWIW-I saw a generator offered for US$2,100.00
That is tractor driven. 25,000 watts-thats enough to power 3-4 total
homes. Anyone else seen something on this order? A small tractor will run a long time on a small amount of fuel. Your own neighborhood power company.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:14 - ID#286230)
What country do you live in?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:19 - ID#45173)
ravenfire - Japan vote to dissolve...
The Japanese appear to think they'll be better off without a government.

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 Nov 20 14779.94 +425.48 +2.96%

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:38 - ID#219363)
The US of A. Apologies for the delay, I was running currency charts to see long term trends and such, good stuff except for the dollar vs. gold and silver. *grin*. That one was ugly.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:39 - ID#34883)
Lot of excellent reading in the archives of the Mises institute, re: your previous link to the James Grant interview. Just finished, and I suggest, Morgan O. Reynolds: The Impossibility of Socialist Economy,

lotta good stuff in there, yup.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:42 - ID#93135)
Tyoung-re: Silver-You're very prescient!
I did indeed find that, with an innovative lil twist to make it intereting. {:- )

Re: CEF-You are very gracious. You deserve-at the very least-a bottle of Rozs 1977 Vintage Port. And perhaps a good wedge of aged Stilton. My thanks.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:49 - ID#219363)
Survey Predicts Robust Job Market
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Hiring in the nation's robust job market will remain steady through the start of the year, with the construction sector particularly strong, according to a survey being released Monday. Manpower Inc., the nation's largest temporary staffing business, says 23 percent of more than 15,000 U.S. companies surveyed plan to increase hiring in the first three months of 1999. Only 10 percent expect staff reductions, and 63 percent plan no changes.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:49 - ID#286230)
Sorry can't help you with the "trade" question. I don't look at the dollar- PM charts any more. They are all too clear.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 00:58 - ID#267298)
Just a Feeling
I have this feeling that early 1999 is going to be most
interesting. With AG's latest rate cut "REFUELING"
the engines of "Irrational Exuberance", "Euphoria",
and "Mania", I honestly believe that the DOW will close
1998 slightly over 10,000. Makes for one hell of a New
Year's Eve Party, but, What Then ?

Debut 1999, the very "PSYCHOLOGICALLY" important
10,000 barrier has been breached. Can we really go higher
from here ? The EURO is launched. The realization that Y2K
is now less than 12 month's away sinks in.

Could be interesting indeed.

Go Golf...............

Dave in CO
(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:06 - ID#229141)
@Lurker 777 - thanks
I, too, am sorry that jims is not willing to put his money where his mouth has lingered. Seems all of his proclamations were merely wasted bandwidth. Or was it propaganda?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:08 - ID#386245)
John Disney
Son of Disney very smart kid. Must have brilliant mom!!

What is his track record??

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:18 - ID#242328)
Squirrel Goes Nuts
Ah, I see.

It is now "religious fanaticism" to ask someone if they actually have
some knowledge of what they speak. : )

Maybe you should "invest" some nuts in a presidential campaign
donation. That's been a darn good investment for China. : )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:22 - ID#267298)
Dec Gold + .50

Go Gold...............

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:29 - ID#253228)
Another government manipulation
There have been a few short news reports referencing the long ago shooting death of John F Kennedy.

This brings to mind the best book I ever read on the subject which was titled "Mortal Error" by Bonar Menninger, but really based on the thoughts of Howard Donahue, a self taught ballistics expert.

For those of you who saw what a .223 round could do in Viet Nam no explanation is necessary. Unjacketed lead bullets like those used in the US War Between the States would cause terrible damage because the lead was soft and at high enough velocity would spread out and break up on impact. This lead to the International agreement to the use of a hard metal casing around a lead core, which was the ammo used up to Korea. The development of the .223 round was a way to circumvent this agreement between waring parties. The .223 rould had a very thin jacket which did not keep the lead core from balooning and breaking up on impact.

Donahue recognized that the initial hit on Kennedy/Connally ( neck hit ) did damage like would be expected from a jacketed round, but that the second hit ( head shot ) did damage like a .223 round, so he is certain that two different rifles were involved, one firing the 6.5 mm round, and one firing the .223 round.

He thinks the evidence is that the first Oswald 6.5 mm round struck the curb and splattered hot fragments that hit kennedy in the back of the head. The second 6.5 mm round came from Oswald also and was the neck hit that also went through Connally. The third shot that caused Kennedy's head to explode came from an AR-15 and was a .223 round. There is no way that a jacketed 6.5 mm round would have caused his head to explode as it did. If Owsald fired a third shot it was simultaneous with the head shot and was a miss. The trajectroy of the head shot was from behind and points to the Secret Service car behind Kennedy's limo. It just so happens that agent George Hickey who grabbed the loaded AR-15 off the seat when the shooting started fell as he grabbed the gun and it accidentally discharged hitting old JFK in the rear of his head.

The cover up was in fact the coverup of an accidental killing of a politician by his bodyguard. The damage to Kennedy from the first hit may have been fatal anyway but that is not certain.

This is the only book among many on the subject that left me with little doubt about what really happened. Such an explanation appealed to me anyway since my view is that there is no orgainzation ever invented that is more incompetent that government.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:36 - ID#386245)
Aussie juniors
Get 'em while they're hot.

Majors have stalled ( gold index down 1% today ) but selected juniors hottin' up!! I've got a couple that are rising 5-10% a day for the last 3/4 days, on increasing volume. Same reports from Canuck friends. Smart money shifting to badly oversold juniors with heap-big-gold/silver-in-ground and no paper above ground.

When a share drops 80-95%, makes a rounded ( bowl shaped ) bottom and starts rising on increasing volume, and YOU DON'T BUY SOME, then turn your computer off, go make love to your wife/husband/girlfriend/boyfriend/sheep and don't attempt to invest in gold shares ever again. The bell is ringing, the fat lady is putting on her sequined gown and most of you are sitting there on your ass ( ets ) .

Now I know I said that gold could go to 195 in a deflation. Well, it could!! Don't let that stop you from buying something that is badly oversold and now going UP on VOLUME!!

Did anyone but mois pay any attention at all to Fred@Vienna's posts of the past few weeks?? One of the shares he mentioned is UP BIG TIME on HUGE volume. PAY ATTENTION!! Some people on this site know of what they speaketh.

Many years ago in the US a position was advertised for a morse code operator. It was depression times and two hundred odd people showed up!!They were all having a great time chewing the fat. General uproar in the waiting room. If you listened very carefully you would have heard ( in morse code at an extremely fast speed ) the words "The first person to walk through the bosses' door will get the job." A meek looking fellow casually strolled over, walked through the door and got the job.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:38 - ID#257312)
New Year's Day Hangover, 1999

That is about 40 days from today. Alan Greenspan has already used 3 arrows from his quiver. If he has to fire another one between now and Jan. 1, that would spook these markets big time. One more derivatives eruption like Long Term Capital Mismanagement, then it's Katy bar the door. The Euro will have its debut on the world stage, and no one knows what is going to happen. There is certainly no consensus at Kitco about the Euro. But we are going to find out in about 6 weeks. Question-- On 01/01/99, will the Gold, $, and stock markets be pretty much "as before", or radically different?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 01:40 - ID#45173)
My friend says that he invests only in derivatives that hedge against inflation
or any calamity that might befall fiat money, as all can be modelled and tamed by the mighty statistical power of the computers and derivatives.

He will have nothing to do with gold.

But I wonder if derivatives that behave as gold will truly operate as well as he hopes. Gold conveys a visceral value, immutabile. In times of distress, possession of gold cannot fail to calm the fear of destitution in any man, woman, or child. This character of gold lives men's hearts as in his language from ancient times. And derivatives?

Let's see how well derivatives hold up in the language. First the original versions of several pieces of verse:

She is mine own,
And I as rich in having such a jewel
As twenty seas, if all their sand were pearl,
The water nectar, and the rocks pure gold.

- William Shakespeare, The Two Gentlemen of Verona

Whilst that for which all virtue now is sold,
And almost every vice,--almighty gold. 6

- Geoffrey Chaucer, The Chanones Yemannes Tale

Once again updated for the latest New Era:

She is mine own,
And I as rich in having such a jewel
As twenty seas, if all their sand were pearl,
The water nectar, and the rocks pure derivatives.

- Billy Shakespeare, The Two Guys of Verona

Whilst that for which all virtue now is where he lives,
And almost every vice,--almighty derivatives. 6

- Jeffy Chaucer, The Suburban Malls Tale

A couple more that apply to Kitco:

The company of just and righteous men is better than wealth and a rich estate.
-Euripides, geus. Frag. 7.

Silver and gold are not the only coin; virtue too passes current all over the world.
-Euripides, Oedipus. Frag. 546.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:01 - ID#153110)
@Nothing Is As It Seems @Money @Gold Coin @Past As Pattern
The more that is unearthed of the untaught history of that part of the North American continent south of British North America, the more evident it becomes that American government has been restructured behind the scenes without the consent or knowledge of the governed. Some of this is remote history of the 1870's. Much more of it is of the period 1935-37. And again in 1976.

Anybody, like the aurator, who accuses somebody like me of tilting at phantoms of socialism needs to read FDR's speeches of 1934 in which "partisans" are openly warned about opposing the coming replacement of the Constitutional Republic by socialism and democracy. It was all done by deception, lies, and fraud and it is ongoing. But, the trail of betrayal of public trust is all there on paper for those who are hunting. Some would call what has been done treason to the Constitutions, state and federal. If you are outraged at current events and taxation, you have reason to be. You did not elect anybody to dismantle the protections secured to you in the federal Constitution and in the original Constitution of your state, did you ?

There is a lot of discussion on this site about whether or not gold is money. Just be advised that if you live in a country in which the people do not know that gold is money and ought to be coined as such, then you live in a country in which the memory of money has been erased by decades of socialist government and socialist government education and indoctrination. The federal Constitution says so. The common law upon which all law of English speaking people depends says so. If you say otherwise, you are either a dupe of socialists or delight in ignorance.

If the past is pattern, there will be no gold in the vaults when the regime comes to crisis. During the 1920's the insiders knew enough to get gold out of the country before the apocalypse of 1933. Why should it be any different this time around ?

Be advised if credit is what you live by and want to live by, the day is soon coming when you will be made to crawl on your knees and beg and surrender all your dignity and liberties to get it.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:11 - ID#22584)
Rees-Mogg in Monday's London Times

The markets may have bounced back, but the public
senses a darker economic picture

We haven't seen the worst of it

The London stock market is behaving in a very odd way. Last Thursday and Friday were two of the most contradictory days I can remember. Normally, bad news makes prices fall. Last week was a bad news week, yet in the last two days markets rose strongly; on Thursday by 132 points on the FTSE 100 index and by 111 points on Friday. There was a similar movement on Wall Street, though there the news was more encouraging.

The bad news included a number of cautionary statements and profit warnings from business. There were at least 15 of them, perhaps even more; they included substantial companies such as British Steel and Northern Foods. Retail sales fell in October, bringing them down to less
than 1 per cent above the previous October. The OECD forecasts for growth, both in Britain and in the whole OECD, were reduced. The Federal Reserve made a further cut in US interest rates, suggesting it is still very worried about the world banking system.

The retail sales figures are always central to the economy. As David Smith pointed out in yesterday's Sunday Times, consumer spending amounts to more than 500 billion a year, or 63 per cent of our gross domestic product. This is the popular base of the whole economy; when the public loses confidence to increase spending, the economy turns down. Consumer spending has fallen in this way three times during the 1990s. Retail sales volume in 1991 fell by 3 per cent, producing a nasty recession. In 1995 it fell to the point of zero growth; that produced a mild slowdown. This year it has fallen from the 1997 rise of 6 per cent to a rise of less than 1 per cent. If this trend continues, there will be at least a mild recession next year. Why, then, is the market rising so strongly? It is not because the rest of the world is much more optimistic than we are. Sentiment is better in America, which explains the continued popularity of President Clinton, but German business expectations have been falling sharply, and Japan and the Asian countries are still in deep trouble. The
explanation seems to be that the people who make the investment decisions are not the same as those who make the consumer decisions. This is more obvious here than in any other country.

The power of consumption is democratic; retail purchases are made by virtually every adult and by older children. We largely buy in the same shops, typically in the supermarkets and in Marks and Spencer. Even a
generation ago, there may have been some survival of the difference between the carriage trade and the rest. Now Harrods is no more than a tourist shop and a local Knightsbridge retailer; it is not what modern retailing is about. When retail trade turns down, that means we are
all feeling more cautious. The UK stock market is not a popular one in this sense; it is dominated by institutional investors. They do, indeed,
ultimately obtain their funds from the rest of us through life assurances, pension funds and so on. These savings are largely, but not wholly, contractual; some institutional investment is based on non-contractual unit trusts. In the United States - and this is a major difference between London and Wall Street - a much higher proportion of
institutional investment comes through the mutual funds, subject to the surges and declines of public support.

Last July, when the world stockmarkets peaked, the institutional investors did indeed become very worried. They already felt that share prices were very high. On July 22 Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, gave warning that interest rates might have to be raised, to
prevent wage inflation; on August 17 Russia defaulted on domestic debt; in late August the US Treasury stock fell and the yen rose in an unprecedented week's trading; on September 23 Long Term Capital Management had to be bailed out. The Fed has cut interest rates three times since then, appearing to know some bad news which we have not yet been told.

Institutional and private investors at first reacted in the same way; London and Wall Street had a synchronised fall. In America there were withdrawals from the mutual funds, though confidence has recovered. In Britain, the institutional investors did not sell; they stopped buying,
which meant that the market was bound to fall because a trickle of small sales pushed prices down. Even a private investor could affect the share price of many of the smaller companies on the London market by selling only a few thousand shares. Although the institutions largely stopped
buying in August and September, the cash did not stop flowing in. People do not cancel their pension arrangements because they feel worried about the stock market. By the end of September the institutions had a growing pile of cash on their hands, which was going to have to be invested at some time. On October 15 the second rate cut by the Fed convinced both the UK institutions and the US mutual fund investors that there was more danger in being left out of the rally than in going back into the market.

Members of the public are not now behaving like the institutions. They are following the economic news. Despite what the Governor of the Bank of England says, hard news matters much more than the pessimism or optimism of the commentators. People are feeling cautious, about future business profits, about Asia, about world trade, about a possible credit crunch, about their own jobs. This public attitude is shown in the housing
market, which turned down in August, but has not rallied with the stock market in late October and November. People buy houses; fund managers buy shares.

The institutional investors still have their flow of funds to invest. They, rather than the public, are moving the market because their favoured shares in big companies have recovered disproportionately to smaller company shares, which private investors often prefer. The 100-share FTSE index has recovered to within 7 per cent of its July record high; the small capital index is still 28 per cent below its
record high of last May. Just as there are private and institutional investors, there are now two stock markets, one of which has failed to rally anything like as much as the other.

Some commentators have assumed that the threat of recession has been removed, just because the stock market has rallied. This is not a safe assumption. The economy depends on the broad public confidence which
supports retail trade. The evidence is that this public confidence has fallen since last July and has not yet recovered. Retail sales themselves, the CBI survey of business confidence, the housing market, the small capital share prices, all point in the same direction. There may be a recession next year; there will almost certainly be a slowdown. There is no reason not to cut interest rates further, and, indeed, it looks to be necessary. The British economy is not ruled by institutional investors, but by the British public.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:13 - ID#153110)
Why was Jackie Kennedy trying to get out of the car ? The woman was fleeing. But what ? Logically, she was fleeing away from danger. Read The Last Circle for the only explanation of her actions to make sense that I ever read. I always thought the notion she was retrieving pieces of Jack was absurd. You can access the last circle at Grabbe's site.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:21 - ID#252391)
BDog - Dec gold down 20 cents . . .
.... while the Asain markets are zoooooming. Two to four percentage points gains across the board. Prosperity is breaking out all over. The top of the wall of worry is being scaled. Buyers are everywhere. Bear market??? What bear market??? Wait for Europe .. . oh my gosh . .

Fortunately for the gold share investors, oil is up a dime; the torrent of deflation price declines has a day of respit. Gold shares will be down only fractions on light volumn.

Advancing and recovering economies are postive for industrial and discretionary spending utilizations of metals - hence the mere 20 cent decline, as world economic order is maintained through the masterful capabilities of our great leaders and their agents at the Central Banks.

Dow 10,000 before gold $299.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:26 - ID#254288)
Steven Jon Kaplan url


(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:28 - ID#153110)
@Government Incompetence
Governments that do not secure rights take them by abridgement, infringement, denial, and disparagement of them. Rights of property which includes liberty. If you think they are incompetent at doing so, I don't think you are paying attention.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:31 - ID#257312)
United Kingdom

The yield curve is highly inverted--

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:35 - ID#341227)
December GOLD up FIFTY CENTS...
...while Plat and Palladium getting massacred this morning.

Gold seems to want to go its own path now. Its relative strength to the white metals augurs well for improved future performance.



(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:37 - ID#257312)
US Yield Curve Graphs

(Mon Nov 23 1998 02:59 - ID#153110)
@Gone From Grabbe

(Mon Nov 23 1998 03:07 - ID#252391)
to farfel
Where did you get the Palladium and Plat quotes - I have them down 20 cents and up a dime, respectively.

Gold up a dime.

South African golds down 1%

(Mon Nov 23 1998 03:15 - ID#252391)
DAX threatens to break through 5000
Stock markets opening higher in Europe by 1-2% following strong 2-4 percent increases in Asia.^gdax&d=b

S&P up 500

(Mon Nov 23 1998 03:22 - ID#411259)
..... Just got back .....

From a week in sunny Negril, Jamaica; more about that later.

Also more about some interesting news concerning Russians and palladium shorts.

Too tired to speak of anything but ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZs


The white metals are fine.
Gold will fall


(Mon Nov 23 1998 03:45 - ID#333126)
more on the negative savings rate

pay careful note to what they mention about the savings rate

the credit card economy is what is upon us.

got gold?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 04:06 - ID#399147)
I have started work again and will be posting from time to time from beautiful downtown Garmisch-Partenkirchen, it has been a long 6 weeks without my daily Kitco fix and I hated sitting on my tuchas to start work. But all is well. Go Gold!!!!!!!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 04:43 - ID#367411)
@RJ & Farfel Re Pt/Pd
Good morning!

To Farfel:

I noticed your view that gold is exhibiting relative strength vs. the white metals. Pls refer to the following chart for Pd:

When compared to the gold chart, I have trouble seeing gold's relative strength..........I am missing something?

To RJ:

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the short & long term outlook for Pd, especially short term.......I'm trying to figure out which direction it might head.......the supply demand situation looks excellent......

I tried to look into what the major Pd users are doing. Since automotive catalyst applications consume over half of the worldfs Pd, I thought it would be good to look into that application.

1. Commercial User Activity

Leading catalyst manufacturer Engelhard has the following positions in Tokyo:


Short 312 contracts ( 1.5 kg each )

Long 4,873 contracts

Net long 4,561 contracts

( )

It would appear that even at present prices they need to buy Pd. Does anyone know if this is an increase or decrease from previous positions?

In October, Englehard took delivery of 490 delivery units ( 3 kg each ) .

2. Commercial User Applications

The Engelhard page has the following product information. The gall palladium designh product is getting top billing, and the fact that annualy automotive applications consume more Pd than Pt would indicate that for the time being the trend is towards using Pd. Any ideas regarding the Pd price level where the Pt/Rh catalysts start to look attractive?

gMeeting the requirements of new emission control legislation is a challenge to automobile manufacturers worldwide. As the leader in automotive catalysts, Engelhard is helping meet these challenges with a new breed of catalyst solutions:

PdPLUS catalysts

Combines advanced catalyst manufacturing technology with all palladium design to bring customers a high performance three-way catalysts.

Performance in reducing NOx, CO and HC equal to Pt/Rh catalysts

Exceptional hydrocarbon conversion

Low hydrogen sulfide emissions

Low CO breakthrough

Patented segregated washcoat catalyst technology

Precise placement of the palladium

Layered design -- two catalyst in one

Precise control of oxygen storage component

All-palladium design

Lower cost than Pt/Rh

Stable at higher temperatures

Hi-Temp close coupled catalysts

Precious metals and thermal stabilizers optimize activity and reduce deactivation for mounting close to the engine or manifold while withstanding high temperatures

Ultra high temperature stability to 1050 C

High tolerance to sulfur poisoning

Patented segregated washcoat catalyst technology

System design flexibility - use Hi-Temp:

As entire catalyst volume

In a cascade system with other catalyst technologies

TriMax catalysts: Exclusive platinum/rhodium/palladium construction outperforms conventional platinum/rhodium three-way catalysts in HC and CO oxidation and NOx reduction.

Minimizes H2S without using nickel

Stable oxygen storage function for OBDII requirements

Low light-off temperature

Offers high temperature stability for close engine mounting

Outstanding resistance to lead and sulfur poisoningh

3. Supply

The interesting thing about Pd seems to be that once it is consumed by itfs commercial applications, itfs GONE. Only a small percentage is recovered from catalysts. You canft pull it out of peoplefs teeth ( dental applications ) , and itfs not sitting around in the form of jewelry, silverware, or bars in some investorfs safe. Itfs GONE. If itfs GONE, it canft be drawn into the market by higher prices, right?

That would appear to indicate that things are very critical in terms of supply/inventory. Does anyone know what the world inventory levels are? In 1995 the US govft stockpile was only 39 tons, a fraction of the annual demand.

Stillwater could ramp up production significantly, but that will take timecc.

Looking forward to othersf thoughts on these issues.

Best regards,


(Mon Nov 23 1998 05:11 - ID#252391)
THC - good to see you hot on the PD trail
Thanks for all the fundlemental data. I just picked up a tip from one of the best gurus on the markets who recommends SWC at 32. Suspect this implies a little pull back in PD before the next push higher.

My orders will be just a little higher.

Out for a while back a little later.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 05:23 - ID#367411)
@jim Re: Pd
Hi Jim!

What was the guru's take on the short & long-term outlook for Pd?



(Mon Nov 23 1998 05:24 - ID#185448)
Retired Soldier
Good to know that Kitcos Central-european department got upgraded with your presence. I guess youve got lots of snow over at Garmisch - I think it will be a looong and cold winter. Enjoy it.

Go heating oil, Go gold

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 05:29 - ID#33184)
Brazil confirms communication minister resigns, more resignations to follow.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 05:32 - ID#367411)
Pd: Holy ....!!!
Who just kamikazied the Pd price?

Was that you Jim??


(Mon Nov 23 1998 06:32 - ID#280214)
Who Cares? Folks here don't often question
prognostications about the POG increasing. They assume it will - someday.
But the questions sometimes dumped on those who say it will go down!
We should consider the idea that the POG could drop further
and question the rhetoric about it going to 325 just has harshly as we question comments about it going to 250.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 06:39 - ID#43349)
Are you suggesting some kind of objectivity?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:14 - ID#288466)
Precious Metals and Oil T/A, XAU Elliott Wave, Market cycles
They have changed format from the XAU and XOI:

Yvan Auger's Elliott Wave XAU update:

Market cycles:

User: hixson password: thmetal

VOR market cycle: COMEX gold

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:24 - ID#261118)
squirrel: heritic.........most of what I read here these days borders on
an X-files/ twilight zone combo and you want us to consider gold going down?... ( risky )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:35 - ID#288466)
Good commodities charts....PMs, T Bonds etc.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:47 - ID#252391)
The market guru whose comments I passed along in regards to SWC prefers to remain anonymous to this board as he is under partnership contract to only provide trade timing and price objective advice for a selcet determined group - you can understand.

However, I will ask his permission to pass along his ideas in rough anonymous form, here. Frankly, I don't always see things the way he does, but then he turns out to be more often right than I . He called the bottom of the Asian stock markets issuing buys on Japan Equity Fund, the closed end fund, in particular, about a week or two off its low under six dollars per share - now at $9 and just bursting higher. Same type of thing on EWH the WEB on Hong Kong. I, regretfully, was too caught up in the bearishness of the moment to pull the trigger.

Anyway I'll inquire what I can pass along - needless to say he wasn't buying at $300+, and given his SWC advice ( which i probably shouldn't have mentioned with out his consent ) he is projecting some weakness in PD.

I'll ask if I can have an exact target price for you. May be a day or two - he at times is a little incommunicative.

Will report back at about this time or a little earlier.

Good luck

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:47 - ID#350194)
"It's more fun to arrive at a conclusion than to justify it."
---Malcolm S. Forbes

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:53 - ID#255226)
S&P and Dow
A short term high ( for traders only ) should come in sometime this week or early next. This will be another buy opportunity. A few hundred point drop would be welcome. Based on monthly charts a projected high between now and early January of 1245 - 1265 SnP, 9750 - 9800 Dow is possible. This would not necessarily be a final top. If the summer highs turn out to be only a wave 3 high this market could eventually be at 15 - 16,000.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:56 - ID#333127)
J.Dines was on bus. news fri. nite Regards SWC he took credit for buying it but did not say ATPIT to buy or sell. He likes gold because he predicts currency crisis in mid 99.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:58 - ID#288466)
These copper charts are beginning to look VERY interesting. Note diagonal triangles or wedges on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. This is usually a terminal pattern. My favorite copper stock: OKP

(Mon Nov 23 1998 07:59 - ID#203137)
Have not seen any of your recent postings on Gold and would be very interseted in your comments about the future short term price movements on Gold. Your postings of past have been uncannily correct.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:05 - ID#288466)
Copper - OKP
It is a steal.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:07 - ID#252391)
More triangles - sounds like a geometry class, here. Actually, I had noticed something in a quick look at the copper charts - didn't investigate very far but now that you have passed along this great site's url I'll look more closely.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:11 - ID#399147)
Fred in Vienna
Contact me at Thanks for the kind words.
Farfel welcome back, no more food fights ok? Mozel Ditto.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:14 - ID#350194)
Kitco Informal Holiday Gathering
Goldbugs ( and Silverbugs ) Unite! A few posters here have written me as to when the upcoming Kitcoite informal luncheon/dinner will be held in the Toronto area this holiday season. We are STILL open to suggestions from ALL. ALL who are able attend are invited - including lurkers! ( As long as they introduce themselves and sit WITH us and not skulk in the shadows somewhere nearby. ;-0 ) ) Anyone and everyone who may be interested is encouraged to e-mail me ( Stephen Mooney ) at: to discuss and be updated as soon as plans are definite.
6Pak - aurator says you BETTER make it this time and pick up your button!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:14 - ID#433242)
Stock Market/POG and POS
It amazes me to come in here and see everyone trying to guess when the markets are going to top or bottom. It is just like those people in the stock market who think this is going to go on forever. What will happen is the same thing that happened in 1929. When people ( not everyone, but the majority of people ) think there is no end in site as to the height of this market, it is then that it will topple and fall. The PE ratios and debts are more now than an 1929. Interest rates are down and everyone is out buying a new house, updating to a larger one, or refinancing. Just like they did in the 1920's. Again, that market will also crater. When it does a lot of cheap real estate will be on the market. How long will it take??? Who knows and who cares. Just prepare yourself for it, that is all you can do.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:18 - ID#233199)
The last time the CRB index was at this level it seems everybody here was on edge.

How now?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 08:31 - ID#333126)
could be a bad christmas for retailers
but we kitcoites already expected that, no?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:02 - ID#432148)
GeoGeoff - couln't agree with you more
None know the future but we all have opinions as to what it might hold, and some like to go out on a limb by posting their thots. They know we will normally promptly forget when they are wrong and it gives them the chance to show how smart they are when they are right ;- ) From my study of the 20's and the depression and investing, like you, I have to think history will repeat, when we know not, and not in exactly the same way, but close enough to profit if you prepare. Thats why most of us are here, gold is part of that preparation.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:03 - ID#288466)
SWP1 @ CRB Index
A triple bottom? I can't find a longer-term chart.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:08 - ID#31868)
RETIRED SOLDIER,Namaste' gulps and puffs and some fabulous apples...My
FRIEND I am HAPPY to see YOUR words...MY door is open arrive at your leisure...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:14 - ID#432148)
Silverbaron - CRB chart
or a double top? All in the eyes of the beholder eh what? Who knows?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:30 - ID#399147)
Tol 1
Thank you for the welcome and kind words, if you ever get to Europe/Garmisch the same applies. My e-mail is

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:33 - ID#288466)
Hmmmmmmmm....I didn't think of that. Bummer.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:47 - ID#34459)
Currency Converter URL
Good Morning, Here is a great URL to use to convert any currency to yours. I have used this several times and find it handy, you may want to bookmark it for future reference.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:48 - ID#34459)
The URL was left out
Here it is

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:49 - ID#255226)
Thanks, Gold and Silver are in wedges more so silver which has been noted by several posters. Once the upside of these wedges is taken out we should see substantial moves in both metals. When that will happen I don't know, could be today could be a month from now. For trading purposes the ideal out come is a move down to 4.40 silver, 277 gold. The strategy is to buy at 4.40 and 277 or the breakout of the wedges which carries more risk. The over all bottoming process should have the xau staying about where it is now, silver bottoming and then gold bottoming several days later. If we get the move to 4.40 and 277 it should be very quick with silver dropping 30 -40 cents in a day then back up again. If we get down to 4.40 silver I may post a hypothetical $10K trading accout and see how it does over the next several months. My starting position would be 5 contracts of March silver when dec gets down to 4.40-4.45. This type of trading is not for the faint of heart.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 09:54 - ID#317193) caveat...
IF CEF does not hedge or lock in the price it will pay for gold and silver in 1999 AND the price rises it is effectively dilluting the value of all shares when it buys gold and silver at higher watch yourself. Guess what a lower price does if they do not lock in.......


(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:00 - ID#316193)
Japan's Crisis Immense ---
TOKYO -- "In the past few weeks, company after company has
announced first half profit warnings or deeply disappointing
results. Some of the country's best-known and biggest
groups -- NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi -- have sunk into loss for
the first time in 50 years."

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:07 - ID#31868)
LOVE and Palms UP...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:08 - ID#246299)

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 179.325 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 295.600 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 178.654 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 20 Nov 1998 ) : 295.600 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9761 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9150 US Dollars

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:21 - ID#34459)
SilverBaron 9:03 Triple Bottom CRB
Your chart of the CRB could be a mirror reverse of the Dow 30 which at this height looks just like it is making a huge triple TOP.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:35 - ID#339274)
Time to cover and time to buy : )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:35 - ID#288466)
Either the deflationists are right....and the CRB goes down the tube, or we are very close to a major inversion of assets in favor of real stuff over paper. A sharp trend break in this area ( either way ) should tell us pretty soon.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:41 - ID#34459)
SilverBaron' you are right
A major turning point is staring us all in the face, a huge trend change of major proportions lies just ahead, maybe only days away.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 10:59 - ID#34459)
SilverBaron & Dec AU Chart
SilverBaron, there is a strong ray of hope for the AU, the Dec AU contract gapped up from 295.0 on Nov 18th at the open, as long as this gap in the chart remains open or unfilled back to the downside, the possibility is that the Dec AU will not fill it and climb on up and over #300.00.. Just looking at the recent action, it looks bullish.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:00 - ID#339274)
80 ,nice number for today

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:04 - ID#432130)
The Dow...
This "Bubble Dow" is gonna burst BIG TIME!!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:09 - ID#35757)
Those whom the gods would destroy.....

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:10 - ID#269409)
DOW bubble burst
Gee...that's an original thought...and we've only heard it voiced here on Kitco, maybe 50,000 times over the past 2 years...all to no avail eh?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:13 - ID#34459)
CyClist..........XAU trend change
Short trem trend change at 11:09, maybe the downmove is over..

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:14 - ID#153110)
@Euro @Magic Words of Ritual
The European motive in the Euro is stability. What Grant calls the welfare state of credit craves economic stability as the highest value. It is the source of the feeling of secular security for the non-believing.

But, the stability of other socialist regimes has never been a concern of any. The Euro regime is no exception. Am I mistaken or have we forgotten it was China that destabilized East Asia with devaluation contagion ? Intentional or accidental ?

On that score, Armstrong's information that LTCM was ultra-long on Euroland is interesting, if true. One might suppose the LTCM debacle was intended by someone to derail Eurotrain. The bailout of LTCM, then, was actually a bailout of the Euro. Greenspan's statements of confidence about Eurolaunch and the good the Euro will do on the world currency stage indicate at least part of Washington has no fear of revaluation contagion and knows nothing of the political power of gold.

A measure of things political, domestically, for Americans is that the Euro appears more a product of capitalist mores than the greenback. Here is a new currency with gold in its official reserves and Americans have not demanded the same of their own government. Odd behavior from the citadel of capitalism, I think. But, not odd, if it's not a capitalist citadel at all.

Washington is counting on the ignorance of the American people. It has never let them down in the past. On this site are a lot of smart, well-educated people. Certainly, smarter than I. And there are others here who are well-informed from business activities. More well informed than I, certainly. But, in matters of Law they are as ignorant of the meaning of the words and procedures of ritual magic used by the Priesthood of Attorneys in courtrooms to dispossess people of property and liberty as a midieval peasant was of the liturgy and Bible of the Priests of the Catholic Church. Like the well off then, the well off today think they can buy intercession by hiring a Priest and making contributions.

When this credit fraud crashes and people are hungry for real answers from real people, there are gonna be a lot of Little Martin Luther's nailing stuff to courthouse doors for popular consumption and enlightenment. It's already started, actually.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:16 - ID#219363)
What's another 80 pts between friends. She goes up and up, way up, and where she stops nobody has a clue. Envy the broken record says, nobody is buying value here. 600$US will get you two ounces of gold, an acre of land in the mountains ( up to three acres in some places around the US ) , 80+ one ounce silver coins, a really beat up car, 72000 yen, or THREE LOUSY SHARES of yahoo paying a remarkable NEGATIVE 13 cents a share and a "not applicable" P/E. Three shares of yahoo in one hand, 80+ silver coins in the other, hmm, decisions decisions. Sanity will return to the markets eventually, and when it does, it'll be abrupt and the memory of it will transcend time.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:16 - ID#342397)
Rack @your 00:14 today
Would you mind posting the source of the add for tractor powered generators. Have been looking for something similar. TIA

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:17 - ID#288466)
I agree with you....but the curved pattern in GCZ8 since the first of November looks like the first half of a 'clamshell' pattern to me - which suggests that the gap will be filled before moving up.

I think it was Hans Hannula who coined the term.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:17 - ID#347457)
@gwyz (The Dow...)
Gwyz, sure your "This "Bubble Dow" is gonna burst BIG TIME!!" will eventually happen. The question is when.
Kitoco is predicting this to happen "imminently" for the last few years. In between, everybody who is waiting for this to happen, sitting on sidelines is not doing good thing for his/her financial wellbeing. Being in a place where you can make money at the specific moment ( be it DOW or PM ) is the basic of sound investing.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:19 - ID#284255)
Open Letter to President Clinton

Fortune 500 Report

Y2k Weatherman Comments

Heavy Metal

by Randy Flink, President
Championship Financial Advisors

Last week, a reporter from a major publication was referred to me by
David Tice, Investment Advisor to the Prudent Bear Fund ( BEARX ) . The
reporter was intrigued by the fact that physical stocks of precious
metals bullion have been moving at a brisk pace, and that one
underlying explanation might be that a growing number of individual
investors are starting to prepare for Y2k-related turmoil in the
financial markets. I wasted no time in giving this reporter a litany
of reasons why precious metals bullion ( i.e. tangible assets ) might be
a popular choice among "Y2k-savvy" investors. However, the reporter
implied that an article couldn't be written based on my testimony
alone. Other precious metals bullion investors acting in response to
Y2k would have to step forward. Did I know where to find these people?

With the help of the "Y2k Weatherman" and the subscribers of this
email list, I was able to submit to this reporter within 72 hours a
list of over 100 people ( with cities of residence and daytime phone
numbers ) who are investing in precious metals as part of a conscious
Y2k preparation strategy. I truly hope that this effort will result
in a mainstream media article which highlights in a positive way the
well-conceived contingency planning being done by many individual
investors in anticipation of Y2k.

At this juncture, it is important to review the various rationales for
utilizing precious metals bullion ( i.e., tangible assets ) as a means
to insure against major Y2k-related fallout in the financial markets.
These rationales can be best summarized as "Store of Wealth" and
"Medium of Exchange" and are discussed below.

-Store of Wealth-

It is virtually impossible to know in advance whether or not Y2k will
usher in electric power, telecommunications and banking infrastructure
failures which would severely inhibit securities trading and money
flows, subsequently igniting a slew of major bankruptcies and/or loan
defaults. It is equally impossible to determine in advance the
severity of Y2k's economic side effects, e.g., mild or serious
recession, mild or serious deflation, mild or serious inflation, mild
or serious collapses in the stock and bond markets, commodity
rationing, price controls, etc.

The actual macroeconomic and microeconomic effects of Y2k will be
heavily influenced by the actions of the White House and Federal
Reserve, not to mention other major governments and central banks.
Will these policymakers be inclined to print massive amounts of money
to stimulate Y2k-stalled economies? Create artificial incentives to
prop up ailing stock and bond markets? Provide relief measures to
unemployed or otherwise financially-strapped consumers in the form of
mortgage payment holidays and tax payment deferrals? Introduce
rationing and price controls if developing shortages of goods and
services begin to undermine consumer confidence and threaten civil
disorder? All of the above? Some of the above? None of the above?

It should be remembered that THE most basic reasons for holding
precious metals bullion ( i.e. tangible assets ) are to ( 1 ) insure
against the possibility that intangible assets could lose their
liquidity and redemption features if major infrastructure failures
and/or major bankruptcies/loan defaults materialize in times of
crisis, and; ( 2 ) preserve purchasing power in times of rapid inflation.

Because Y2k risks are without precedent and could be far more
disastrous than what the mainstream is willing to admit, both of these
scenarios are quite possible in the time leading up to and following
the January 1, 2000 date rollover.

Implementation of a precious metals bullion strategy is relatively
straightforward. In today's modern world, people most often will
choose gold, silver and platinum bars ( common sizes range from 10 oz
to 100 oz ) as well as gold and platinum coins. In many emerging
nations, gold and silver jewelry often will be substituted for bars
and coins.

Another related option for storing wealth is rare coins, which consist
of numismatic pieces ( i.e. low population coins in mint condition ) and
semi-numismatic pieces ( i.e. higher population coins in less-than-mint
condition ) . Two drawbacks to holding rare coins vs. precious metals
bullion are

( 1 ) the buy-sell spread on rare coins usually hovers in the 20-30%
range, which means that you must hold this type of asset for a
relatively lengthy period of time in order to recoup the spread. By
comparison, the spreads on 1 oz bullion pieces and 10-100 oz bars
generally are in the 3-6% range;

( 2 ) you are completely reliant upon the integrity of rare coin dealers
and independent coin graders. With rare coins, you are paying for
both scarcity and quality, and there will always be differing opinions
on a coin's grade, ownership appeal and ultimate value.

-Medium of Exchange-

Y2k represents a potential chain of events which could undermine the
ability of the U.S banking system ( not to mention every other nation's
banking system ) to process check payments, process electronic funds
transfers, process credit card transactions, extend loans and dispense
currency. We already know for a fact that in 1999, the Federal
Reserve plans to print an additional $50 billion in currency reserves
to add to its existing $150 billion stockpile, just in case the
general population decides to withdraw huge quantities of cash prior
to the date rollover. This action by the Federal Reserve implies that
there will be "perceived" problems relating to Y2k, but it is still
too early to predict whether or not we will have "real" problems
stemming from Y2k.

Of course, any "real" problems which materialize from Y2k will be
related to major infrastructure failures which could very well trigger
a major loss of confidence in the traditional payments system.
Checks, electronic funds transfers and credit cards may not be
reliable or even feasible for an indeterminate length of time, leaving
physical currency as the lone survivor among payment alternatives. If
the physical supply of cash is insufficient to handle the volume and
scope of payment transactions, "near cash substitutes" will be
required in order to facilitate commerce.

The logical choice for these "near cash substitutes" will be precious
metals bullion, which for thousands of years has been accepted as an
official and unofficial medium of exchange in practically all
countries and empires, large and small. The particular bullion to be
used as a modern-day medium of exchange most likely will be "highly
familiar" gold and silver coins. For North Americans, these will be
coins minted in the U.S. and Canada. A typical inventory of gold
bullion coins for trade purposes might include 1 oz and fractional
denominations ( i.e. 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/10 oz ) of American Eagles and
Canadian Maple Leafs. A typical inventory of silver bullion coins for
trade purposes might include 1 oz American Eagles and Canadian Maple
Leafs as well as bags of "junk silver" coins, since fractional
denominations of silver coins are not minted at the present time.

It is important to recognize that bags of "junk silver" coins are
bulky to store and are extremely cumbersome to transport because of
their weight. In addition, they are highly "inefficient" from a trade
standpoint. For a transaction to take place, a clerk ( e.g. a
supermarket cashier ) would need to physically examine each coin's date
and reference a conversion table in order to determine the overall
silver content of the coins before a final value could be established.
The physical spot-check would involve the following considerations:

( 1 ) pre-1965 dimes, quarters and halves have a 90% silver content;
( 2 ) post-1964 dimes and quarters have zero silver content;
( 3 ) 1965-70 halves have a 40% silver content, and;
( 4 ) all dimes, quarters and halves post-1970 have zero silver content.

Perhaps this type of logjam eventually would be broken via the use of
specialized scales or scanners. By comparison, however, both the
American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf 1 oz silver coins are much
easier to store and transport than bags of "junk silver" coins, and
the 1 oz coins clearly state their precious metals content on the face
of each coin, eliminating the guesswork.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:23 - ID#368244)

Hardware is my business, to pull a pto generator 10kw will take a power source of 80 to 100 horsepower. This is not a small tractor!

Dave in CO
(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:25 - ID#229141)
DOW bubble WONT burst
Gee...that's an original thought...and we've only heard it voiced here on Kitco, maybe 50,000 times over the past 2 the same grating voice.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:26 - ID#266105)

Crystal Ball- roger roger, I copy that vector, victor.
Geez, a reference in the Dell horoscope issue, we're
gettin' out there, er, up there.

Mole- copy.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:27 - ID#203137)
Would'nt get too excited about Goldilocks fellas -- as soon as ( if it does ) , go up a couple a bucks, rest assured that Big Black 50,000 ton Bear is gonna place it's big fat arse on little ol Goldilocks.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:35 - ID#34459)
Envy.....Your posting of 11:16
is truly brilliant. I printed it and I am going to put in my scrapbook and save it for my grandkids to read about. One day your words will long be remembered as words of divine wisdom at the time. How is it only we at the KitCo site are the only damn ones in the world who can see the trainwreck just ahead.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:36 - ID#266105)

morbius-- Those whom the gods would destroy.....


......they first send down forty years of success. Bonzai..

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:37 - ID#339274)
cover the gap
Quick trip to 76

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:41 - ID#147201)
mozel your 2:01
This is the greatest exposition of the subversion of America I have ever read and it is in a clearly condensed form. I just wish I had copies of all the research I have done in over 50 years. There is no honest and objective observer who can dispute this. I can still rely on my memeory and I have some documents, but all of this is too disjointed, however the facts that one learns give a perspective to analyse whats coming. If you ever smelled a dead rat, you don't need court document to tell you what you are smelling. Great work, please keep it up, Charlie

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:43 - ID#33184)
COT report 17/11: Commercials still *short* gold

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:45 - ID#373403)
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
September 29, 1998

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 29, 1998, at 9:00 a.m.

Indeed, the available data suggested that consumer expenditures and business investment retained considerable strength. At the same time, however, investors' perceptions of risks and their aversion to taking on more risk had increased markedly in financial markets around the world. That change in sentiment was exacerbating financial and economic problems in a number of important trading partners of the United States. In addition, it was generating lower equity prices and tightening credit availability in U.S. financial markets. As a consequence, the downside risks to the domestic expansion appeared to have risen substantially in recent weeks.

-cut- So the Fed IS going to protect the NYSE bubble

In addition, many banks had tightened their credit standards and terms. Prices in U.S. equity markets, which had weakened appreciably before the crisis in Russia, had declined substantially further. These market developments strongly suggested, and anecdotal reports tended to confirm, the emergence of widespread perceptions of greater risks in a broad range of financial investment activities and of considerably greater reluctance to put capital at risk. The members did not believe that the tightness in credit markets and strong demand for safety and liquidity were likely to lead to a "credit crunch," though some members expressed the view that such an outcome could not be ruled out. At a time when business balance sheets already indicated a significant softening of cash flows owing to weaker profits, many business firms were experiencing increased difficulty and costs in their efforts to raise funds in debt or equity markets or to borrow from lending institutions; if these conditions were to persist, the sustainability of the current strength in business capital expenditures would come into question. The decline in stock market prices also appeared likely to damp the growth of consumer spending over time, with added implications for business capital expenditures.

-cut- And they will also subsidize legitimate market risk spreads

Members commented that the more recent weakness in the stock market and the related decline in household net worth had removed an important support for the growth of consumer spending, but they noted that recent surveys indicated only a slight deterioration in consumer sentiment and that the stimulus from earlier stock market gains probably would dissipate only gradually. Looking further ahead, consumer spending could be expected to expand at a pace that was more in line with the growth of household incomes than it had been in recent years.

-cut-Fedspeak: irrational spending will abate and go back to it's lackluster real rate, based on non-asset inflated ( and non-existent ) wage growth.

Even so, the members anticipated that the pronounced increase in investor and lender perceptions of risk would result in considerable moderation in the growth of overall business investment, especially in light of concurrent expectations of reduced gains in sales and profits and evidence of some diminution in both internal and external sources of financing. Reports from nearly every Federal Reserve District suggested that executives had become considerably more concerned about business prospects. In a number of cases they already had seen a substantial downturn in their exports or a surge in competing imports at prices they found difficult to match. In other cases they were anticipating such developments or were reacting to the general sense of unease and uncertainty evident in financial markets. Forthcoming data on capital spending including new orders and contracts were likely to point to a weaker uptrend in business fixed investment. How much weaker was a major uncertainty in the economic outlook and a key to determining the extent to which financial market turmoil was likely to affect the real economy.

-cut-The CEO's know

Of potentially greater importance for the domestic economic outlook, however, was the spread of international financial unsettlement to U.S. financial markets and the attendant deterioration in business and investor confidence. It was clear that the contagious effects of international economic and financial turmoil had markedly increased the downside threat to the domestic expansion.

-cut-We have come a long way from a glitch

The members were divided over whether to retain the current symmetrical directive or to adopt an asymmetrical directive that would be tilted toward ease. A small majority favored moving to asymmetry on the grounds that it seemed more consistent with the increased downside risks to the economy that they believed would exist even after the contemplated policy action and that it would underscore the Committee's readiness to respond promptly to conditions that might threaten the sustainability of the expansion. Other members expressed a preference for a symmetric directive but indicated that they could accept a directive that was tilted toward ease. In their opinion, the uncertainties relating to the direction of the next policy move were sufficiently great on both sides to justify a neutral directive. Some commented that unanticipated developments were likely in any event to provide the principal basis for future policy actions. They suggested that the Committee would undoubtedly confer by telephone should such developments materialize during the intermeeting period, and the symmetry or asymmetry of the directive would have little bearing on whatever policy decision might be reached.

-cut-We really have no idea when the next shoe will drop and will play things by ear.

The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over the months ahead.

-cut-Boilerplate! They say this at every meeting and M3 still goes up at a 10% annualized rate when their target is 4%. Also, M3 IS watched and does matter.

The Committee discussed the limited role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in facilitating a private-sector resolution of the severe financial problems encountered in the portfolio managed by Long-Term Capital Management L.P. The size and nature of the positions of this fund were such that their sudden liquidation in already unsettled financial markets could well have induced further financial dislocations around the world that could have impaired the economies of many nations, including that of the United States.

-cut-Nobel prize winners and former Fed Governors and bailouts oh my!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:47 - ID#317193)
mozel...tis not the attorney that made someone borrow in a bubble....
but you are correct...the property of the masses will be taken and the LAW will be enforced. The gold ( en ) rule prevails...He who has the gold makes the rules. With or without a lawyer.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:47 - ID#219363)
Grains, Soybeans Retreat
CHICAGO ( AP ) -- Grain and soybean futures prices retreated early today on the Chicago Board of Trade amid expectations of weak export demand this week. Market participants expect the shortened trading week likely will result in fewer export tenders. The markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Further, higher world prices for some commodities were keeping Asian buyers on the sidelines, analysts said.
@Cobra: Thank you! : ) I smell short positions in the future, after holidays.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:48 - ID#284255)
North Korea
Thanks to Daniel Teeters for having us look at the Korea News
( North Korea ) web site. The web site is sponsored by
the KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY OF DPRK ( Democratic People's Republic
of Korea )
Their web site address is

North Korea has been in the news a lot lately due to the United
States and Japan's concerns over North Korea's supposed A-bomb

Below is an excerpt from a Friday New York Times article, "Clinton
Concerned About N. Korea."

A senior U.S. official had said earlier in Washington that North
Korea asked the United States to pay $300 million for the right to
inspect an underground site suspected of being used to construct
nuclear weapons.

North Korean officials made the request during 12 hours of talks
with U.S. officials about the project, located northeast of
Pyongyang. The proposal was rejected by the U.S. envoys. The $300
million figure was first reported by a South Korean news agency. It
was confirmed by the senior official in Washington, who asked not
to be quoted by name.

The administration has said that a North Korean effort to develop
nuclear weapons would be a violation of a 1994 U.S.-North Korean

``We're not going to pay compensation to confirm that they are
living up to their obligations under this important nuclear
agreement,'' State Department James Rubin said.


Below is North Korea's perspective from Korea News. These aren't
real reassuring words.


Pyongyang, November 22 ( KCNA ) -- Some time ago, the U.S. navy
staged a future-oriented war test, code named delta, in the waters
around the Korean peninsula. Rodong Sinmun today describes this
test war as a patent proof of the U.S. criminal design to stifle
the DPRK by means of war. The news analyst says: The U.S.
conservative hard-liners, considering that they cannot undermine
Korean socialism through "liberalisation," are placing their hope
on the means of strength. The U.S. is paying lip-services to
"stability" and "dtente" in regard to the situation of the Korean
peninsula. It is now negotiating with the DPRK. All this, however,
is a trick to camouflage its war policy and lead us to relax our
vigilance against the U.S. The U.S. bellicose elements are staging
U.S.-South Korea, U.S.-Japan joint military maneuvers one after
another in and around South Korea, claiming that the "most unstable
area of Asia is North Korea" and that the U.S. should "make full
military preparations." This is a revelation of their attempt to
make a preemptive attack on us. They are slandering the DPRK,
describing its launch of artificial satellite as "ballistic missile
launching test." The slander is designed to provide a justification
for their reckless war game and find a pretext for the provocation
of war. The recent maneuvers in the waters around the Korean
peninsula attest that the U.S. is carrying its Korean war scenario
into practice. Now that the U.S. war mongers want to break the
DPRK-U.S. framework agreement and unleash a war against us, we
cannot but take a tough countermeasure, warns the commentary.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:49 - ID#219363)
Asian Stock Markets Close Higher
HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Most Asian stock markets closed sharply higher
Monday, with the key index in Jakarta surging more than 5 percent despite ethnic violence in Indonesia. Japan's stock exchange and other financial markets were closed Monday for the Labor Thanksgiving Day national holiday. Indonesian shares closed at a 15-week high as foreign funds continued to flood the market, dealers said. The Jakarta Stock Exchange's Composite Index rose 21.335 points, or 5.3 percent, closing at 424.987. Dealers said that for investors willing to invest in Indonesia, social and political unrest were expected, and therefore didn't curb the buying sentiment.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:49 - ID#342397)
Isure @11:23
Where can I get info on 25KW tractor-driven generators. What size tractor am I going to need?? Appreciate any help here.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:52 - ID#33184)
@sharefin - that Ed Dames character monitors the NKorea
website on a regular basis - he expects next nuclear event to come from them.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:54 - ID#13953)
Poetry to enjoy while while the DOW goes to the Moon.
"My Mom's a Y2K Wacko" by Wayne, my son

Big buckets of flour
Standing up in a tower
In the pantry next to the broom.
Big bags of beans,
Canned spam, and sardines
packed so tight that they fill up the room.

Canned chili, clam chowder,
And white baking powder
Stacked tightly in a row.
Grapenuts and raisin bran
and milk from a can
Strain the shelves until they bow.

Propane tank is filled
To the point where it's chilled
And the frost clings to it day and night.
Fuel tanks weighing heavy
To fill up the Chevy
As the millennium comes into sight.

Candles and lamps
And matches and maps
And rifles and ammo and gear
A generator for power
When darkness for hours
Shall spread when the New Year appears.

Now my Mother's a saint,
But I have one complaint
As she prepares for the situation at hand.
I'm not much for beans,
Or rice, or sardines,
And I don't like that corn that is canned.

Canned milk makes me sick.
I'd rather swallow a stick
Than pour it on my raisin bran.
So please, Mommy dear,
Stock up on the beer!
I'll starve if I'm forced to eat Spam.

The End!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 11:55 - ID#35757)
Fourty years of success has led to a collosal hubris. We have become absoulely heedless of danger signs. We hurlte towards the abyss, confident that the bridge will be completed in time. NO FEAR.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:03 - ID#368244)
@ Crossbow

A good source should be Grainger. They have catologs that you can order
here is the Shrevport branch call them and they can provide you with the branch close to you. 318-635-9120

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:08 - ID#13953)
phase one of the recession John Deere lays off 2500. Stay tuned for the
domino effects.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:08 - ID#33184)
There are uncomfirmed rumors, circulating in the Chicago bond pits, that Yeltsin has died. Although this possible, it also possible some one is trying to make unloading a big treasury position easier.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:09 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 179.325 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 295.600 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 178.885 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 295.500 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9761 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9150 US Dollars

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:11 - ID#33184)
December Gold(CMX) - down?
The GCZ8 ( Mkt ) ended Lower ( Cond ) for October ( Month ) . Compared to September's 299.00 ( Prev Close ) , the market ended October at ( Month Close ) , that being 12% ( Pct Range ) off of 292.00 ( Month Low ) to 305.60 ( Month High ) .

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 23 years ( Total Years ) , Scenario found that the December Gold ( CMX ) also closed lower in October than September in 13 ( Cond Years ) of those years. Of those 13, GCZ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years ( Action Years ) or 92% ( Pct ) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCZ should penetrate 292.00 ( Scenario Objective ) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project ( based on normalizing those previous 12 years ) a potential move toward 276.91 ( Average Objective ) .

Source: MRCI

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:13 - ID#342397)
Many thanks for the info

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:15 - ID#35757)
Thanks. Going out to load up on JD Stock.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:30 - ID#212323) mentioned the DOW going to the Moon.
Who gave the orders for it to *return* to our Solar System for THAT mission??

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:32 - ID#284255)
Cage Rattler
I guess it's a card up the sleeve for BC?
Ed Dames is one strange dude.
Not sure what to make of him.

There's a competition on Y2k humour at:

You should submit your song there.

Known Y2k failures
Check with your computer moles working in the PPG corp.'s computer dept. Seems
they recently had all their Y2K patches ordered removed because "garbage out"
was the operative description of the results.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:36 - ID#350145)
Steve Kaplan's bear mkt predictions
Someone needs to tell Kaplan not to bother marketing those video tapes of the bull mkt. Its a loser. They won't sell. People can see it live, here and now, on their local tv station. No need for vicarious thrills. Bottom line: Those who bought the last correction made a bundle.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:40 - ID#212197)
@mozel: I loved to read your 11:14
I agree with most of your observations and conclusions. Especially, what you say about the lack of knowledge about the power of gold in the American governmental and financial institutions.
But I never capture your law based philosophical thinking and background.
How could I?
I always valued the average criminal to be a much more honest person than a back-door advocat. That's how I formed my basic attitude towards "the law". That's why I have little possibilities to capture the social importance of "the law". "The law" as an instrument of suppression, that's what I'm used to look at.
For instance: do you know that a lot of German and French historians are jailed because they came in their research to not politically correct views on contemporary history?
From a pragmatic viewpoint I'm happy to be able to sometimes analyze power structures ( emphasis: power, not law ) . And I consider "the law" a secondary tool to impose power structures upon people.

I don't write this to criticize you. Just to tell you how miraculous your philosophical law-based background remains to me. Even though I agree with your conclusions and values to a far extent.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:47 - ID#269469)
y2k? Nations Bank Visa

I got a statement from Nations Bank about my Visa account late last week, it showed my outstanding balance of $0 as well as my current limit of $0... I canceled that particular card over a year ago. I called the 800 number to see what was up and the operator told me that 65,000 of these notices went out, all to closed accounts. Didn't think to ask why at the time but one wonders.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:53 - ID#277224)
Ying and Yang
YAHOO UP 7 7/8 @$198 7/8 with an earnings per share
of -0.18.
XAU UP 0.1

(Mon Nov 23 1998 12:58 - ID#433242)
Gold Stocks
Anyone know of any good gold/silver stocks to invest in? Trying to find some that are stable that do not hedge!


(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:07 - ID#284255)
Funny no comments???
Fortune 500 Report

This is the second report I've seen in the last few days saying the same thing.

And a must read.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:09 - ID#26367)
Y2K and just being prepared in general
You probably heard the one about....God calls Yeltsin, Clinton and Gates to heaven and announces the world will end Dec 31 1999 due to how disappointing its all been and/or we've had our chance. Clinton thinks it is a ) good news that God really exists, bad news that the fun is really over, no hope...Yeltsin has to announce that the bad news is on 2 accounts, a ) there is a God, the atheists were all wet, and b ) the world is about to end....c ) Gates is elated: a ) Someone finally recognized he is one of the three most important men in existence, b ) Microsoft has got the inside solution to the Y2K problem--all have to do is get the Windows 99 version, and you'd better have the right links.
Or something like that....I went shopping last weekend, and books that were published at $19.95 and up are selling at $3.00 at Walden's. Some sectors are deflating instantly...while I suppose the price of trucks is way up. I wonder where we are in the business cycle? If it is deflation then we just passed a top in commodities isn't it? They are the end of the cycle feeding into bond rallies followed by small cap stock price increase.
If there is global meltdown I would think that gold is useful as barter and trade. Everything melts then I don't see any scanning devices looking at silver coins in the market. If anyone has lived through a natural disaster ( or so called event ) in their own neighborhood--you've probably seen what a melt down does--no supplies, theft, charity and increasing mental exasperation when stop lights no longer work, no TV's, etc., and kids get tired of playing the same games over and over again. I noticed that my neighbors immediately bonded into a unit--even the old drug heads and alkies around the block--basically we are all friends at heart and know eachother pretty well, even if we don't circulate in the same social groups. When we got thrown in together it went OK. But help eventually came from somewhere--if there's no help coming, then you got have some adventuring leaders to spearhead exploration. Just buying a lot of food wont make the difference! I like knowing a few people will stop by my door and/or we'll find our way to eachother if the worst happens. I like knowing the SBI and the fire marshall and some buddies that have contacts. I have one friend who bought a fire engine at an auction ( he sells used cars ) ! Why not? A real civil society is the best defense and offense too in a way. I like gold I can put on and walk with as an insurance policy, a good safe, locks that are the best you can buy, alterate phone systems--cel, pagers, etc. It's when you can't communicate that the world gets real spooky fast--no TV being broadcast, no radio freak me out quick. Regards, Lakshmi

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:15 - ID#269409)
@ Dave in CO... DOw bubble
Yes Dave...of course there is a difference between the two. The BIG difference between the two voices is that one was right and the others were wrong. One continues to make a bundle as the others lose their ASS in bad metals and S&P Put investments.

As long as nonsense keeps getting posted, then reality posts that end up proving correct time after time ( after time X 10 23rd power ) shouldn't be derided quite so much, wouldn't you agree?

"Date: Mon Nov 23 1998 11:25
Dave in CO ( DOW bubble WONT burst ) ID#229141:
Gee...that's an original thought...and we've only heard it voiced here on Kitco, maybe 50,000 times over the past 2 the same grating voice."

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:24 - ID#368244)

Sold my LOR, I had to take a profit, could not help myself.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:28 - ID#341227)
@LGB....still as ridiculous as ever!
LGB said:

Date: Mon Nov 23 1998 13:15
LGB ( @ Dave in CO... DOw bubble ) ID#269409:
Copyright  1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yes Dave...of course there is a difference between the two. The BIG difference between the two voices is that one was right and the others were wrong.

But what LGB really meant to say is this:

Yes, Dave of course there is a difference between the two. The BIG difference between the two voices is that one was aided and abetted by
constant corrupt government intervention to support the DOW bubble ( thereby appearing to be correct ) and the others were actually correct but thwarted by regular market intervention via my buddy, Clinton ( who I pretend to dislike ) , and his partners in crime, Fed Chair Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Rubin.



EZ Believer
(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:29 - ID#226287)
Cowgirl...Major problem with Wayne and his poem....
Wayne has never been HUNGRY! A mere three or four days without
food and he will eat the spam with joy unspeakable; a couple more
and he will kill for the canned milk and sardines.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:30 - ID#35757)
The party

in the western or black chamber the effect of the fire-light that
streamed upon the dark hangings through the blood-tinted panes, was
ghastly in the extreme, and produced so wild a look upon the
countenances of those who entered, that there were few of the
company bold enough to set foot within its precincts at all.
 It was in this apartment, also, that there stood against the
western wall, a gigantic clock of ebony. Its pendulum swung to and fro
with a dull, heavy, monotonous clang; and when the minute-hand made
the circuit of the face, and the hour was to be stricken, there came
from the brazen lungs of the clock a sound which was clear and loud
and deep and exceedingly musical, but of so peculiar a note and
emphasis that, at each lapse of an hour, the musicians of the
orchestra were constrained to pause, momentarily, in their
performance, to hearken to the sound; and thus the waltzers perforce
ceased their evolutions; and there was a brief disconcert of the whole
gay company; and, while the chimes of the clock yet rang, it was
observed that the giddiest grew pale, and the more aged and sedate
passed their hands over their brows as if in confused reverie or
meditation. But when the echoes had fully ceased, a light laughter
at once pervaded the assembly; the musicians looked at each other
and smiled as if at their own nervousness and folly, and made
whispering vows, each to the other, that the next chiming of the clock
should produce in them no similar emotion; and then, after the lapse
of sixty minutes, ( which embrace three thousand and six hundred
seconds of the Time that flies, ) there came yet another chiming of the
clock, and then were the same disconcert and tremulousness and
meditation as before.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:34 - ID#368244)

You forgot to work Robby the robot in there.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:36 - ID#269409)
@ Isure...LOR
Can't blame you for selling your Loral in a way, considering that it's up almost 100% in 7 weeks. I moved my entire 401K into it at 10.50 and I've never made as big a gain in as short a time frame. Sold a little myself, but still 80% invested.

It's going a LOT higher in the next 24 months ( IMHO ) perhaps 300% or so gains from here minimum. Reason? Skybridge, Globalstar, Cyberstar, et al...a whole lot of huge fat revenue producing programs will all start at basically the same time, driving us from no earnings, to perhaps $5.00 / share earnings in early Y2K. At P/E 20:1, share price would be 500% gain from where it is today. I'll be staying at least 75% invested with my entire 401K balance ( except for several short term timing plays ) . Anticipated LOR gains aren't based on fluff like the Internet stock phenoms are.

Hope you don't regret bailing! But a locked in profit is an "Isure" thing eh???

Happy investing.....

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:37 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Special report to Harlan:

I'm back in NY doing a y2k consulting gig at a Wall Street brokerage. I
was here briefly in July and August. What a difference 4 months make.

In every office now, every hallway, every elevator, coffee shop,
restaurant, and street corner in the financial district, all you hear is
y2k this, y2k that, y2k blah blah blah, and it's all problems, troubles,
and surprises.

The brokerage I'm in now is slipping schedules, and I'm being advised to
not put my project on the company intranet until I can post some results.
Otherwise, I'll just generate heat and waste time explaining problems
rather than solving them.

My former y2k colleagues across the street, at a very large bank currently
involved in takeover rumors, tell me that all of the schedules are slipping
there as well, and that testing is not getting done on time, or at all. A
very nasty testing problem that I discovered in August, involving aging the
data on a whole bunch of client-server databases, has been ignored, because
nobody knows what to do about it.

I talked to a fellow college alum at a party this weekend, who is now a
corporate attorney involved in writing SEC y2k disclosures. She told me
that she's being pressured to ignore the international operations of
multinational operations, and focus on domestic operations, where the news
is better. ( But not good...thanks for all the SEC updates, Harlan! ) I
suggested that she plan a long trip back home ( to a large, rural, western
state ) in Dec 99. She thinks that this is a good idea.

The most obvious question to me is this: when are all of the securities
analysts who work in this neighborhood going to start tuning in to the same
conversations that I'm hearing, which after all, are right in the buildings
where they work? Some savvy money manager will be the first to suggest to
clients that they take profits on the insanely high stock market now, and
get back in after the inevitable decline.

And, the bond rating agencies ( Moody's, S&P ) have to start downgrading
corporate bonds soon, based on these SEC filings and all of the obvious but
unstated counterparty and trading partner risks.

Stand by for mass realization, fear, loathing, and chaos. Like every other
group-think movement on Wall Street, this massive school of fish will turn
on a dime, and then turn on each other. The water won't be safe until all
the blood is gone, and I gotta tell you, some of these fish are fat.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:38 - ID#35757)

 But, in spite of these things, it was a gay and magnificent revel.
The tastes of the duke were peculiar. He had a fine eye for colors and
effects. He disregarded the decora of mere fashion. His plans were
bold and fiery, and his conceptions glowed with barbaric lustre. There
are some who would have thought him mad. His followers felt that he
was not. It was necessary to hear and see and touch him to be sure
that he was not.
 .......... There was much
of the beautiful, much of the wanton, much of the bizarre, something
of the terrible, and not a little of that which might have excited
disgust. To and fro in the seven chambers there stalked, in fact, a
multitude of dreams. And these --the dreams --writhed in and about,
taking hue from the rooms, and causing the wild music of the orchestra
to seem as the echo of their steps. And, anon, there strikes the ebony
clock which stands in the hall of the velvet. And then, for a
moment, all is still, and all is silent save the voice of the clock.
The dreams are stiff-frozen as they stand. But the echoes of the chime
die away --they have endured but an instant --and a light,
half-subdued laughter floats after them as they depart. And now
again the music swells, and the dreams live, and writhe to and fro
more merrily than ever, taking hue from the many-tinted windows
through which stream the rays from the tripods. But to the chamber
which lies most westwardly of the seven, there are now none of the
maskers who venture; for the night is waning away; and there flows a
ruddier light through the blood-colored panes; and the blackness of
the sable drapery appals; and to him whose foot falls upon the sable
carpet, there comes from the near clock of ebony a muffled peal more
solemnly emphatic than any which reaches their ears who indulge in the
more remote gaieties of the other apartments.
 But these other apartments were densely crowded, and in them
beat feverishly the heart of life. And the revel went whirlingly on,
until at length there commenced the sounding of midnight upon the
clock. And then the music ceased, as I have told; and the evolutions
of the waltzers were quieted; and there was an uneasy cessation of all
things as before. But now there were twelve strokes to be sounded by
the bell of the clock; and thus it happened, perhaps, that more of
thought crept, with more of time, into the meditations of the
thoughtful among those who revelled. And thus, too, it happened,
perhaps, that before the last echoes of the last chime had utterly
sunk into silence, there were many individuals in the crowd who had
found leisure to become aware of the presence of a masked figure which
had arrested the attention of no single individual before. And the
rumor of this new presence having spread itself whisperingly around,
there arose at length from the whole company a buzz, or murmur,
expressive of disapprobation and surprise --then, finally, of
terror, of horror, and of disgust.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:38 - ID#334219)
'The over all bottoming process should have the xau staying about where it is now, silver bottoming and then gold bottoming several days later'

If gold bottoms at $277, it is next to impossible for the XAU ( Barrick, Placer and Newmont ) to stay near current level of 75.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:39 - ID#317193)
Do not look now but paper is "good" and commodities are "bad"....except
for cocoa and lumber with gold forging up a few cents. Amazing what "easy" money policies will accomplish. Play the game at hand but have a well planned exit strategy...and some gold and silver in hand at these prices. AG giveth and prepared.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:39 - ID#269409)
@ Farfel
*F..I'm always happy to respond to an intelligent, factual, honest, thoughtful, and rational dissenting opinion. Therefore my response to you is...........

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:42 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
Economists argue both sides of the debt coin. At this point I wonder if
"they" really want the consumber debt brought down. Simply, the original
vendor in a transaction get paid immediately, yet the consumer pays and
pays. Think about that money, the part _we call interest, where does it
go? The card companies have a cash cow in the consumer, and in addition a
cash cow which thru investments continue to bring in handsome profits.
Just think of the point spread between card interest rate and FedPrime
whenever the card company wish to move their profits into the larger
financial arena - that is power. I would bet that there are even
derivative futures that play the split points between Fed and Card rates,
between present cash in and future cash in, etc. And there is the reason
why I think that until great pressure is brought to bear upon CardCo's, if
it is even possible at this late point, that they will not respond with
humane interest rates for their services and conviences. I believe that
the Fed's recent one quarter point drop is a real indicator of the distress
the economy faces at large. First LTCM, then BofA, and now, who will this
last one prove to be? It has to be a very big player or group of players
just because it is a small percentage drop, it takes Big money to be able
to respond in a positive direction at small percentages. Take a look at
the stock market, up it goes! Where did the buy money suddenly come from?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:44 - ID#234427)
Pointer Please
There was a great pointer to a page that listed the daily quotes of comex options.

My computer hiccuped and killed my bookmark directory.

Could anyone repoint me to this page? The option quotes were text only and a typical day would be several pages of line after line of quotes.

Thanks in Advance


(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:47 - ID#341227)
@LGB...what did you study at school again?
Oh, yes...surfing at San Jose State, right?



(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:49 - ID#36977)
A Kitco FIRST for me . . . I was right!
Date: Thu Nov 19 1998 17:54

Tyro ( @jims ) ID#36977:

My experience has been that SWC goes down on big PGM up days, and goes UP when PGM prices correct the

following day or two. comments?

Today: Platinum 348.95 -6.95 13:45

Palladium 281.00 -17.00 09:27

SWC 1:19PM 36 1/16 +13/16 +2.30% Check out the 5-day chart:

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:52 - ID#34459)
Cyclist: The XAU
has made a very nice {5} wave count up since I nailed the bottom tick this morning at 11:09 @ 75.65. The Dec AU contract has made a little ( 5 ) wave count up too.. Things are definitely looking up.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:53 - ID#339274)
sell & short
76.8 the party is over

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:53 - ID#45173)
I agree with you with one coveat: they made a bundle if they sell now. You don't make any money until you sell.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 13:55 - ID#219363)
I dunno about that anymore. When I first moved out on my own with a roomie of mine from college we were sleeping on the floors with blankets, using jackets as pillows. Real short on cash, ended up "investing" everything we had in a loaf of bread, a "thing" of baloney ( sp ) and some stuff called "Ched'o bit" cheese, some artificial cheese something-or-other. After two weeks of that stuff, I went hungry for days *grin*. To this day I can't eat any of the stuff we had then. Spam gets real old real quick and I bet sewer rats and crows start looking pretty tasty after a while. Variety is the spice of life.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:08 - ID#266105)
Randgold's Kebble-- "sinister forces"

mirror, mirror...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:15 - ID#255226)
Sure it can hold, I give it alot of room down to the low 70's high 60's.
That is the divergence we need to see to plant the bottom. If gold is heading toward 277 and the XAU is falling under 65 the chances of 277 and 4.40 holding are not nearly as good.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:21 - ID#269409)
@ *Fspot..... Ivy League Schools / LTCM
Nice article in the WSJ on the 2 Doctorates and 20 MBA's who managed Long Term Capital Management, all grads from Ivy League schools. Their brilliant credentialed results on market calls mirror your own.

Re-inforces my beliefs on the value of grads from "Ivy Leauge" schools who's Mommy's and Daddy's sent the little pampered wastes of humanity, vs. folks who worked their way through "real" technical programs at "real" schools like SJS.

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:25 - ID#242214)
Squirrel "cracks" me up
I didn't jump on Weiser for claiming that gold will fall.

I jumped on him for declaring that currencies would never to gold-backing. I mean, gad, if the guy is gonna make statements
like that, he should at least have *some* knowledge of the history
of how the gold standard has been abandoned and re-adopted through

Don't you think?

Besides, I fully expect gold to fall. I just expect it to fall less
quickly than most other leveraged things like real estate, stocks
and bonds. : )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:26 - ID#257312)
Odd Goings On-- Dec. 99 Gold 390 Call Option

Don't know if this issue was raised here already, but here is a story from the NY Post on the Dec. 390 Gold call. Seems there are 3.2 million ounces represented by this contract, compared with 660,00 ounces for all of the Jan. 99 call options.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:29 - ID#34459)
CyClist & XAU
FWIW.... The 30 minute & 60 minute charts are almost on a buy signal.
This...the XAU chart.

Mike Stewart
(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:30 - ID#270253)
General Market
I am long stocks in general, but have taken some profits here for year end tax loss time. It is important to note that breadth is not all that good. We haven't has a 60%/40% advance/decline in almost three weeks. Meanwhile, the Dow is up 500 points.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:30 - ID#266105)

lgb- "Ivy Leauge" schools who's Mommy's and
Daddy's sent the little pampered wastes of humanity


Correlation to socioeconomic status of the top schools
was evident earlier in this century. The present student
population in said institutions correlates to three
standard deviations above the norm, or about the 99 percentile
of cognitive ability.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:32 - ID#33184)
DJIA intraday high so far was 9333, now at 9305. Tick is -550. If a failure here, then there is almost a perfect inverted head and shoulders formation on weekly chart since June. First target 9000, then shoulder at 8600.

EZ Believer
(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:33 - ID#226287)
Envy .... It's one thing living like a Spartan to get ahead.
But sounds like Wayne boy has spent too long clinging to his

mommy's skirt. Let that puppy go a few days without eating

and he will get down and scarf spam like a dog.

By the way, great post this morning. The concept of real value

has been lost to the masses. Proves there is "nothing new under

the sun". Whether tulips, Tokoyo real estate, the DOW, junk

bonds, or counterparty credit risk in derivatives; the crowd in the

balloon never sees the pin coming. True value investors are

considered lepers at this time and have taken a pretty good beating. Healing commeth!


(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:38 - ID#339274)
XAU poised to hit 78.5,we'll see.76.8 is to vacate

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:38 - ID#284255)


(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:39 - ID#255378)
gold up again
At the risk of sounding like a gold bug ( who me? ) , I'm telling you folks, something is up. Gold is going up on days like today when it 'should' go down. Dow up strong, CRB down strong, Dollar up - all normally bad for gold and Dec gold closes on it's high. Yup, something is up.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:40 - ID#34459)
CyClist.....DEC -AU
Its sneaking up as the day gets longer.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:44 - ID#34459)
XAU on the 30 min & 60 min look to make a run to the upside.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:45 - ID#288186)
arden; Thanks for your comments. We need encouraging words on "our" Metal!
Dec Gold closed @ 297.10 // Dec Silver closed @ 4.890 // Jan Platinum
closed @ 352.40

(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:50 - ID#45173)
Just spoke to a good friend with a good perspective on the stock market
He was at UUNET when it went public, made around $12M. Now lounges around a very large house with his family in FL investing in various Internet companies. Lucky? Not exactly. UUNET was his 8th start-up company experience. He used to work 80 hours a week for years on end.

In June, he got out of the stock market and put most of his money in 30 year treasuries. That's still a fair income at next to zero risk. Thinks the current market is nuts.

The first thing he said when he called me this a.m. was: "What the f*ck can you think of that might make Yahoo! go up 10 points at the open?"

He describes the Internet as seven blind investors buying an elephant. So far they have bought three parts of the elephant: ISPs ( how he got rich ) , infrustructure ( Cisco, et al ) , and now portals.

Portals are at the tulip mania stage, ready to do a Netscape when investors finally figured out maybe Microsoft might be able to make a good browser, too.

But the seven blind investors still have four parts to go. So what's next?

Wanna make some money? Ride the next Internet mania. Later on, I'll give you some of my WAGS on the next Big Thing on the 'net.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 14:56 - ID#13953)
EZBeliever, lighten up on Wayne, you do know it was all in jest.....
Poetic license aside, my son knows there are no cans of Spam or Sardines in the pantry yet.....canned milk is another matter. Wayne makes light of all this and I am glad we have a family that can joke around. His plan A for y2k is to COME HOME. After all, his GOLD coins are HERE!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:06 - ID#339274)

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:08 - ID#219363)
I'd like to talk to you off-line if you get the chance, email ?

@Cowgrrl: I liked the poem.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:08 - ID#45173)
By the way, my friend
he never went to college.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:18 - ID#45173)
Can you post your email addr?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:28 - ID#242325)
Mike Stewart: VIX flat today despite huge surge in averages. This is a man bites dog thing. Under normal conditions the VIX should have plunged today as the market surged ahead. Something is cooking!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:28 - ID#231337)
Gold.. are you short, or are you long?
Over this last weekend, I had the opportunity to get caught up on some of the KITCO submissions that I had not had an opportunity to read over the last few days, and it struck me that I was trying at one point to determine who are the shorts players that use KITCO as but one more place to seed the doubts as to Gold, from those who sit on the impatient side waiting for gold to surge, perhaps to unrealistic heights. It would be interesting to see who would declair themselves on this forum to be either short or long on gold.

The reality is that gold is caught in the grip of desperate political forces, and those forces are using the banking system, and the markets, through either coercion or manipulation to support their own ends. Neither the shorts, nor those wringing their hand with impatience will be able to affect the eventual role Gold will play in the international monetary system. Time will play that out aided and abetted by the real wishes of millions if not billions of people. Neither short sellers, hand wringing optimists, nor self serving political forces will, in the end greatly influence Gold's role... even Mr. Greenspan, the Bank of England, or the likes of LTCM.

To coin an old phrase... "it is what it is, but it will be what it will be". The wisest will be those that can figure out the outcome of this long term game ahead of time, and those will be the ones that use a combination of history, analytical prowess, timing and understand the wishes of millions or rather billions of people.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:30 - ID#290202)
Just got the quarterly report in the mail, looks good. Wish I had a million

dollars to invest in this puppy...IMO US$15. within 2and1/2 years

( your own dd!...and, never take my investment "rantings" seriously. )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:34 - ID#286224)
@arede 14:39 Re: Dow and Gold both up!
I've been keeping my eyes open for this since Mr ANOTHER said to watch for something to this effect. I'm not ready to say this is it, but...

...always ready ( hopeful? )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:44 - ID#288466)
ORCA (Gold.. are you short, or are you long?)
Since you asked....

Long Gold ( physical metals and mining stocks )
Long Silver ( physical metals and mining stocks )
Long Pt/Pd ( mining stocks )
Soon to be long copper mining stocks...but not yet ( not much dry powder left for metals investments )
I don't do futures.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:44 - ID#242214)
Dr.Kevorkian Body.$
Gold is dead?


Is there a PULSE?


Is it suicidal?

Don`t know...


Suicidal too...

Well?.........we are the bottom...???

Don`t know!!!!!!!!!

My mother turn BULLISH!!!on Canddddlllll!!!!!


(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:45 - ID#339274)
sell and short 77.4

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:48 - ID#219363)
Gimme a bit, I don't want my addy on this forum either. : )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:48 - ID#34459)
CyClist & OEX
Man, what a blowoff, A few puts on the OEX, market on close are in order here.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:49 - ID#365216)
how do i short the world?
Bill, Sadam, LaFemme NIkita, the metals, the DOw, everyday
disasters, torture, no faith or morals.

Who can blame us doom and gloomers?

That is all.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:56 - ID#285392)
APH Thanks for your excellent contributions to Kitco
I will look forward to your hypotetical silver trading account or any other that you have time to post. Best regards

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:58 - ID#34459)
CyClist & XAU
Looks like they nailed you up right at the close.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 15:59 - ID#30345)

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:02 - ID#290202)
...easy GENERAL
Take a deep breath sir. That's it. As you were. Smok 'em if you got'em.
( if you don't, ask Sgt. Tol1 in Supply )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:04 - ID#93241)
Orca, silver, platinum. F**k stocks. Don't do futures either. I'm not a sophisticated investor, but I am bullish, very bullish, on pm's. And I can wait.....

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:06 - ID#30345)



$250 to $500



$500 to $1,000



$1,000 to $2,000



$2,000 to $5,000



$5,000 to $10,000



Greater than




(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:07 - ID#212197)
@sharefin: I liked your Y2K impressions from NY
We are also aging dates; actually, it should be calle "juvenating" dates, because you make the dates younger, don't you?
I'm working in a client/server environment, graphical user interface, ORACLE data base. Testing is indeed not fun.
We concentrated first on date logic and date arithmetic, until we dicovered that the way, how GuptaWindows treats the low date is not compatible with how ORACLE stores the low date. This damned low date problem cost us more in code remediation than the whole effort which went into the remediation of date logic sensitive apps.
The ORACLE db has still the advantage that it stores dates Y2K compliant.
( The ORACLE standard software applications for Finance and Procurement are already a different story. )

In general: when service oriented companies enter their orders retroactively, the entry date must be available in order to decide automatically whether there is a retroactive charge or a retroactive credit effective for billing. These cases are complicated to test. Because the entry date is identical with the system date. Ergo, the cases react sensitive to the system date set forward to, let's say Jan. 2000, and the order entry, lets say is 15-DEC-99. Such scenarios can only be tested under "lab" conditions, not in parallell to production. When a company hasn't built this lab environment yet, it's probably too late at this point.
Slowly I get the impression that those companies which didn't start yet, will not make it anymore.
Those which started already, have still a chance to make it, provided the electrical power supply works. Too many ifs either way! I'm becoming slightly pessimistic.
I'm curious from when on this feeling of insecurity will turn into panic: panic buying, panic money withdrawals, panic rush from big cities,
panic stock sales, panic gold and silver coins purchases.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:08 - ID#246299)
Sharefin, re: your 13:42
"who will this last one prove to be? It has to be a very big player or group of players..."

My candidate is the Awful Mae family. Fannie was 'doing Russia' before
the Great Difficulties, and one suspects she managed to get herself into
some lil difficulties...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:11 - ID#256365)
Auric Gold Dec99 390 Calls ...
regarding your post and story at

What does this mean? Who are these people. I have 6 of these contracts as sort of a hedge against bad things happening in the world. I had some extra money and half went to physical and half went to these dec99 390 calls. I am new at this, but is it time I look up "counter party risk"?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:19 - ID#219363)
Bart has my email addy for you.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:21 - ID#252391)
Interesting XAU close
While we in the precious metals muse about 20 cent moves and a point or two in the XAU - 2% in stocks is a slow day.

Any way the XAU put in a good pop at the close with Gold up on what was a very negative day in the CRB. As earlier suggested - something may be up. Dips in gold a swept up and higher closes seem to get made. Constructive action, not the thing that gives a break to 277 much likelihood.

TO APH - Five comex silver contracts on 10,000 margin - 9% cover/91%gearing - yes that's not for the faint of heart.

Think you'll have to raise you estimate of gold next low.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:26 - ID#173196)
Help! Do Eagles have the same gold content as Maple Leafs?
Hearsay,that Maples have 8% more gold than Eagles.
Is this true?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:26 - ID#210282)
Big Brother is now the FDIC, not just the Federal Government
All: Remember those phone calls from your credit card company whne the get suspicious of any changes in your buying pattern? Now your bank may alert the authorities when you deposit cash from that home or auto sale.

Could be that you will have to prove your innocence. What happened to those old principles of American justice where you were innocent until proven guilty?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:27 - ID#45173)
I'll hang onto my gold until the end of the world. I otherwise carry on assuming the end of EJ is very likely to come first. Make hay while the sun shines.

Off to pick some tulips.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:30 - ID#45173)
Have emailed Bart for your email. I'll be tied up for the next few hours. Catcha later.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:33 - ID#219363)
@EJ, Observer
EJ: Good deal, c'ya then.

Observer: I think they both have 1 oz of gold in them, but the Can'dians weight 1 oz making them pure, where-as the eagles weight more than an oz. Dunno though, that's what I've heard.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:35 - ID#93138)
Gold as a Leading Indicator of General Price

As I am sure you know, historically, gold, in its capacity as an "asset", at times has led general price with about a 12 month lead. Thus it would be expected that gold should now be outperforming commodities, as it has been been, if it anticipates that the CRB will be higher within 12 months because of an increase in money supply and a global increase in liquidity due to reduction in interest rates, bottoming of the Japan economy, or other similar reasons - as well as if it anticipates, in its capacity as a "commodity" it will perform better on a supply/demand standpoint in view of a cessation of Euro CB sales with the advent of the ECB, higher investment demand as currently in force, reduction of Asian dishoarding, etc. But for whatever reason, gold indeed has taken on a decidedly better tone which the XAU itself so clearly recognizes.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:36 - ID#45173)
1oz. Maples are 24 karat and 1 oz. Eagles are 22 karat. But contain 1 oz. of gold. Maples for purists, Eagles for folks who want to chuck their gold around with less chance of scratches. Hope that helps.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:38 - ID#344326)
Maple Leafs are .9999 gold, golden eagles are not. They both have one ounce of gold in them but golden eagles have a bit of copper and silver in them which makes them more durable but not as pure. Remember Underdog? He bit on a coin to see if it was PURE gold. If you bite on a Maple Leaf or Vienna Philharmonic ( which are pure gold ) , a toothmark would be made. Not so of a golden eagle which is harder due to a touch of silver and copper.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:40 - ID#288186)
Comex Metal Warehouse Totals....

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Nov. 23

Gold 820,504 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 76,165,194 + 885,743 troy ounces
Copper 71,217 + 1,000 short tons

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:40 - ID#304282)
This seems justified.
Amzn +37 at 218 yhoo +30 at 221 ebay + 46 at 193 Amazing.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:41 - ID#210282)
XXX MAE Family, BIS tightening the noose on Japanese banks
SDRer: Just how much debt do all of the MAE's hold? Is this another LTCM - grade fiasco? Another liquidity crisis in the works? Or just 'small potatoes'?

Comments about last nights discussion about why the BIS tightened Japanese banking reporting requirements? My guess ( in addition to the obvious ) is that the BIS knows that the most likely move of a major currency to the gold standard will come from Aisa, or SEAsia -- not Europe or the USA.

The BIS is in a no-win situation regarding increased Japanese banking regulation, which should have been done years ago ( by Japan ) . The Japanese have had nearly 10 years to face their problems and do something about them. Now -- it makes the BIS look like they might be precipitating a world-wide financial crisis if they trigger a Japanese implosion.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:42 - ID#255378)
look at the eligible silver stocks
Down 1.5 million ounces. More shorts covering

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:43 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Price of bonds on March 3rd: 118

Went as high as 135 ( ! ) a couple of months ago

Price of bonds today: 127

Date: Tue Mar 03 1998 22:03



I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..

Price of silver on April 24th: "660"

Started a multi-month decline on April 23rd 1998

Silver price today: "489" ( went as low as "460" in September )

Date: Wed Apr 22 1998 18:12

farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD & SILVER MARKET... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I am maintaining my EXTREMELY BULLISH position on gold and am now formally declaring AN EXTREMLY BULLISH position on silver. On a micro level, I am most excited by the recently announced dramatic turnaround at the silver bellwether, Sunshine ( SSC ) , its tremendous future prospects, and the apparent million share volume consolidation that has occurred in it these past few days. On a macro-level, silver seems to have established its bottom, the COMEX silver inventories are holding nice steady levels, and gold's imminent hefty spike should pull up silver right along with it.



Price of gold on April 24th: 312

Price of gold the week after.........302

Price of gold today.....................296 ( went as low as 272 in August )

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 11:11

farfel ( F*'s UPGRADE of the gold market... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Many of you may have noticed that I omitted a final verdict on Gold in my late report I posted last night. I did so, not because of any particular senility on my part, but rather awaiting a conversation that took place early this morning.

I am now UPGRADING my evaluation of gold's movements next week from EXTREMELY BULLISH to another WATCH OUT ABOVE!

Date: Fri Apr 24 1998 14:32

farfel ( @ALL...This is NOT euphemistic.... ) ID#340302:




Date: Wed Apr 22 1998 22:26

farfel ( @TYOUNG AND KITCOITES...thanks for the compliments... ) ID#340302:

Copyright  1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Ultimately, I like to believe I have a fairly good grasp of market psychology today

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:45 - ID#255378)
@ Skylark
My central message the past few days has been that gold has now rotated to the front. It is going up inspite of everything that normally depresses it. The price action of gold this month is telling us something and that is not to be short! Our time has come ( as a goldbug ) .

(Mon Nov 23 1998 16:49 - ID#288186)
Per arden's post, we had another "leeetle" adjustment in silver warehouse
stocks. Roughly 1.5 million oz's were transfered from Eligible to
Registered. The 800k added to totals were added into Eligibles, but
it's like arden said. "Shorts are pullin' back their Eligibles."

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:00 - ID#25257)
Innocence Reigns
Let's see...McDougal's innocent, Clinton's innocent, Justice is Blind; or is it Deaf-Dumb-and-Blind

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:07 - ID#36977)
The New Yorker
A Frenchman, an Englishman, and a New Yorker were captured by a
fierce tribe. The chief comes to them and says, "The bad news is
that now that we've caught you, we're going to kill you, and then
use your skins to build a canoe. The good news is that you get to
choose how you die."

The Frenchman says, "I take ze poison." The chief gives him some
poison, the Frenchman says, "Vive la France!" and drinks it down.

The Englishman says, "A pistol for me, please." The chief gives him a
pistol, he points it at his head, says, "God save the queen!" and
blows his brains out. The New Yorker says, "Gimme a fork." The
chief is puzzled, but he shrugs and gives him a fork.

The New Yorker takes the fork and starts jabbing himself all over --the stomach, the sides, the chest, everywhere. There's blood gushing out all over, it's horrible.

The chief is appalled, and screams, "What are you doing???"
The New Yorker looks at the chief and says, "So much for your canoe, a$$h07e!"

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:12 - ID#210282)
Is gold ignoring commodity price indices?
Arden: Would be interesting if cry0 drops and the US dollar continues to rise -- but gold bullion hangs in there. Just imagine what would happen if the dollar drops again.

Gold is pretty good at anticipating future inflation -- and can move before interest rates and commodity prices. Certainly the strength of gold is rising streadily relative to CRY0 since Jan 1998. The relative strength of gold vs the US dollar is less obvious, but it does seem to be rising over the last few months.

Another possibility is that gold is up because of the current market rally -- fueled by uncertainty regarding the future. A little sneaking to the exits?

We just have to beware another 'gold fire sale' if we have another major financial meltdown somewhere. Gold is not strong enough to weather a repeat of the SEAsia events.

Wonder how money countries at risk still have gold to sell ---------

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:25 - ID#246299)
JTF--Mae debt
Since Jan 1998 through Aug 1998, PUBLISHED tombstones...went to market with 34 billion in paper ( mostly Fannie, but Freddie was there too )
And then the paper is leveraged and then...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:30 - ID#286230)
Wonder what this guy thinks of gold's future.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:33 - ID#24066)
crazytimes....Thanks for the info on Eagle/Leafs gold content.
Much appreciated!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:40 - ID#257312)
Aldebaran_A 16:11

Saw a couple references to the Dec 99 390 Gold call on the net. I don't know what this means, if anything, for the Gold market. Seemed odd, though. Hoping some Kitco persons will offer opinions. Maybe it's the good Baron, Herr August Von Finck.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:41 - ID#255378)
390 gold call
We all know who bought all of those calls - Cherokee!!!!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:41 - ID#255226)
The XAU just got dragged up with the overall market, rallied into resistance and stopped. Fidelity gold finished down on the day. And gold couldn't even get back to resistance. Unless something changes I'll stick with 277 and 4.40.

If you think you can turn a small account into a big account you're going to have to step up to the plate. In this case if 4.40 turns out to be the bottom you'll want your account fully margined, this will be the core position rolled forward until the market tops. If you had an average price of 4.42 with 5 contracts there wouldn't be a margin problem until the market hit 4.26. In any case for this to work one has to be using 10 K they can afford to throw out the window and have no fear of margin calls, the plan is not to meet them anyway. I wouldn't even consider trading this way at prices higher then 4.45.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:43 - ID#430260)
I'm wondering how these hurting countries can think they're getting ahead by dumping their gold and silver. Picked this up on AOL:

Usually a strong U.S. dollar and strong equities market discourage investors from safe-haven buying of hard assets like gold, traders said.

``The fact that gold and silver could end higher in the face of the strong dollar and strong stock market suggests the fear of some year-end profit-taking, and mutual fund redemptions may undermine the recovery in the Dow Jones index,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a COMEX floor trader with Hudson River Futures in New York.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, COMEX December gold ended up 70 cents at $297.10 an ounce, after seeing the highest levels in a month last week.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:44 - ID#219363)
Yeltsin Hospitalized With Pneumonia
MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Boris Yeltsin will work out of a hospital room for several days at least, aides said Monday, after the president fell ill with pneumonia -- the third time he's been sidelined by sickness in recent weeks. The latest ailment revived worries about Yeltsin's ability to run a country mired in economic troubles. But his condition wasn't serious enough to stop him from meeting with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in the Central Clinical Hospital. Russian TV networks showed the two leaders sharing a joke in a reception room and Yeltsin, dressed in a sweater, did not look particularly ill.
Someone rumored earlier that he was dead. I guess he isn't, he's just in Russia.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:46 - ID#219363)
Hogs Sink to 18-year Lows
Pork futures sank Monday to their lowest level in more than 18 years on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid fears slaughterhouses will be overwhelmed with supplies after shutting down for the Thanksgiving holiday. On other markets, crude and its products fell sharply, as did grain and soybeans. Pork futures continued to be dogged by record U.S. production this year that came as large cooperatives boosted capacity in the mistaken belief that Asian and Russian demand would rise sharply. Instead, demand sharply amid a global economic crisis.
If it looks like deflation ...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:48 - ID#219363)
OPEC Gathers Amid Host of Issues
VIENNA, Austria, ( AP ) -- As OPEC oil ministers gathered for their year-end meeting, they face an assortment of vexing problems: a global glut of crude, mild North American weather, weakened economies in Asia and prices that have fallen to 11-year-lows. Ministers from the cartel's member nations arriving Monday for the meeting that begins Wednesday were reticent about what steps they might take to bring prices higher.
And it sounds like deflation ...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 17:51 - ID#219363)
Grains, Soybeans Sharply Lower
CHICAGO ( AP ) -- Grain and soybean futures fell sharply Monday on the Chicago Board of Trade amid continued gloomy prospects for American exports. Wheat and soybean futures suffered the brunt of the setback as market participants expressed concern about abundant U.S. inventories and scant demand.
Then it's probably deflation.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:00 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.56. ( not a new high ) The 233 day moving average is 29.06

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:02 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .264. The 233 day moving average is .249

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:04 - ID#210282)
Thanks --
SDRer: The MAE risk doesn't sound that bad compared to LTCM. But depends upon how much of it is leveraged, doesn't it?

GustoOro: I think the mentality that gold is the last asset you sell during hard financial times is a hard one to shake. I certainly would sell my gold if the alternative was to starve.

Now -- if the gold is someone else's -- even easier. I think the key point is that we are not 'out of the woods' until all of the world's major countries that are at risk of deflation/credit collapse have sold all their gold. After that -- it will be much smoother sailing for many years, IMHO.

Any idea who is left? Any South American countries? European countries at risk? I think Canada's gold is now only in the ground where it is a bit harder to hand over to someone else. Likewise Australia. Does the US have any debt where it must use gold as collateral?

EZ Believer
(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:10 - ID#226287)
Cowgirl...OK, just making a point that most people are totally dependent
on vulnerable systems for every need. Several generations have had
it so good for so long they can't even fathom real adversity. If grocery
store shelves were empty, gasoline became scarse and power was
interupted for even a short period of time; millions of people would
trade their personal and collective freedom for the mere promise of
tyrants. Far from a "doom and gloomer" I wish individuals would become
more self-reliant on the basic nessecities, then give it all they have
got in the collective system for prosperity. We would ALL be better
off in the long run.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:13 - ID#210282)
Looks like it is quacking
Envy: Enjoyed your 'Burma Shave' style posts about deflation.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck -----

Perhaps gold will take it on the chin in a few days if the market fails to continue its rally. General market buying enthusiasm tends to push up gold for various reasons.

Did you notice CRY0 is below 200 again? I think we should look at the JOC spot commodity index on the Kaplan site.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:15 - ID#26793)
I have always said deflation and, ( perhaps not loudly enough ) followed by inflation. We are well into commodity deflation; we have yet to experience asset deflation. The monetary inflation that follows won't show up in prices for some time. They are trying to reinflate right now, M-2 is off the wall, but it is only showing up in the internet stocks. Years from now it will be a problem. I suspect that bonds are starting to get nervous now.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:15 - ID#267298)
Was wondering if just maybe
the apparent "Firming" in POG during the past few weeks
isnt due, at least to some degree, to what now looks to be
for a certainty the upcoming launch of the EURO. Seems to
me that as recently as the past three months Ive seen posts
still questioning whether the EURO would yet be delayed.
Perhaps more investors are beginning to think that the
EURO just may get off to a good start, the US dollar may
head south and POG north.

Any Comments ????

Go Gold.......

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:18 - ID#194129)
Tulips to the Sky
Both Yahoo and Amazon are the ultimate tulips growing to the sky. Today we saw what the market is actually willing to pay for a major internet stock. AOl's offer of $4 billion for Netscape represents a price of ONLY 10 times book value for a company that owns one of the two primary internet browsers. Based on today's price of approx $220 for both Amazon and Yahoo, book value is now about 70 times for AMZN ( $11.6 BILLION market capitalization ) and 50 times for YHOO ( $21.7 BILLION ) . A possible buyout? Very doubtful. It doesn't take much analysis to see what 10 times book value would do to the prices of these two tulips. . . . AMZN would be around 30 and YHOO would drop to the mid-40's. Will they grow any higher? Possibly, but eventually the fundamental roots won't be able to support such tenuous stalks.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:25 - ID#430203)
Donald, why must you persist with this stupid index?
It proves nothing, only that for the last 18 years,
you should have been invested in the Dow instead of
in gold. Stop it. For the love of God, stop posting
this ridiculous index.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:25 - ID#210282)
Self Reliance
EZ Believer: I couldn't second your comments more. In the 30's there were many individuals who were subsistence farmers, keeping body and soul together with what they grew for themselves. Most of these self reliant individuals have been enticed to leave the farms for 'better things' which in many cases resulted in welfare support.

I wonder how many of these people on welfare even know where eggs come from, or how to plant crops. I learned a little from tilling my Dad's 1/2 acre of crops -- and I have books on subsistence farming.

Sadly to say, come y2k there will be many people who will have a rude awakening when they realize that 'Big Daddy' government will no longer give them all of what they want for votes. Unfortunately, these individuals will not just take it out of Government officials -- all of us will suffer. I will be more than willing to teach others how to farm -- provided that I can do it without risking life and limb.

The Hatt
(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:38 - ID#294232)
To Greenspan and Rubin.
Show us the gold guys!!!!! Prove Tony Brown wrong and show us the gold..
Tony says the gold was removed long ago. Show us the gold......

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:38 - ID#245136)
gogold is only representative of one opinion..its always hard to keep it up.. ( :+ ) )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:38 - ID#368244)
@ GoGold
Take a valium son and relax, it will be better tomorrow.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:39 - ID#219363)
Yep, I think gold's got a problem still. If all the other "stuff" is tanking, then I can't see much upside in gold, not until the other stuff starts to appreciate in value too. No matter what we think of the beauty, it's still stuff. An ounce of gold hasn't been buying a whole lot of yen lately ( see below ) , though it will get you a bunch of rubles. Of course, a kind word and a dollar will get you rubles.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:43 - ID#368244)
@ The Hatt
If you go to FT. Knox and talk to the people, it is common knowledge that the only gold there is in the guards teeth.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:45 - ID#219363)
Weird thing is, gold won't even get you that much silver.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:52 - ID#277224)
Just for anyone who was afraid to look ( like me ) Yahoo
closed Up $30 7/8 at 221 7/8.Help me Rhonda!!!!!!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:52 - ID#26793)
If you e.mail me your e.mail address I have a chart that may make you a convert.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:53 - ID#57290)
Envy, your 1116 posting
Great comparison. I would like to add one more thing that is high on Mazlos' hierarchy......$600 can buy a years worth of basic bulk food staples that one person can survive on. Yahoo or food........??????

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:56 - ID#280214)
Who Cares? - okay, I stand corrected. I jumped to a conclusion.
Next thing on my shopping list before more Gold.
000 Buckshot, 3" 12 gauge, about a case of 'em.
Ten 70-grain pellets at 1225 fps - like ten 22LRs.
The world's gone to hell when wildlife shoots back!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:56 - ID#368244)

Everyone should write CNBC and call their congressmen and demand an audit of our national gold reserves. Can you say borrow from every CB in the world. Terror would be the order of the day, and the true goal of the FEDERAL RESERVE would be exposed.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:58 - ID#280214)
Isure - and if the audit shows we have no Gold...
The sheople will say so what. Our President has no balls either.
Big deal! Now back to the Monica show - except when Beavis and Butthead are on.

The Hatt
(Mon Nov 23 1998 18:58 - ID#294232)
Isure/ Am not kidding!
As a Canadian i know our Goverment has no gold the wise men sold it. If Brown is right and your wise men stole or sold the gold the U.S. are in deeper trouble than we the contrarians think. The "GREAT RECKONING" is just around the corner....

Gusto Oro
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:03 - ID#430260)
The story awhile back that Koreans were donating their gold to the government to help out really blew me away. Unless it was being used to back and stabilize their hurting currency it was thrown away IMO. --Al

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:04 - ID#341226)
@DONALD...of course, you're thoughts and posts are appreciated
However, I continue to contend that pure deflation or pure inflation are highly unlikely. Stagflation seems headed this way owing to major anomalies in the global economy.

The main anomaly with respect to the global economy remains the same:

America, the great debtor nation, continues to thrive, prosper, and call the economic shots while major creditor nations such as Japan deteriorate and stagnate. It is completely illogical...and yet, if one considers this decade, it will certainly go down as the most absurd, illogical decade in global market history. No doubt history books written in the future will refer to the decade as one of utter, total "Pre-Millenial Madness," best exemplified on a macro level by both America's ability to dominate the world economy despite its debtor status and on a micro level, the internet stock performance in American Markets.

The only equivalent and recent mania that I can think of is the absurd real estate bubble in Japan during the Eighties which, upon that market's collapse, ultimately precipitated the entire current economic depression there. Most Japanese had a piece of the real estate pie in the sky and that market's ruin wiped out many Japanese, from real estate tycoons to little shopowners.

Now, with so many funds, institutions, and average Americans investing in the internet bubble, one need merely wait patiently ( and apprehensively ) for the pin to arrive that will prick it. I would imagine an internet stock collapse will provoke an entire market collapse. Nobody to blame but Messrs. Greenspan and Rubin when that imminent day arrives. They effectively encouraged the bubble for three straight years and, whenever natural market forces sought to bring the equilibrium back to a sane point ( Oct. '97 and August '98 ) , they intervened to force the equilibrium to the unstable, unnatural high point we now find ourselves.

A crash now seems unavoidable and the only variable appears to be whether or not it will happen during Clinton's reign or the next President's.


Because to sustain a market OUT of natural equilibrium requires constant vigilance and intervention. There is bound to come a time where Greenspan and Rubin are asleep at the wheel and "something" arrives to very quickly take the market back to its natural equilibrium. The resultant panic will be in complete inverse relationship to the current euphoria.

Although historical crashes have been complete deflationary, this time should be different owing to inevitable shortages of vital goods and services ( which will be bid up in price no matter what happens to the price of other basics ) .

Again, the Nineties in America has been some mind-boggling decade...from OJ Simpson's exoneration to the canonization of Joey Buttafucco, etc. etc....just one example after another of common sense abandoned.

The average American is getting dumber and dumber, abandoning his/her brain to a mass propaganda machine of nonsense and illogic.

Finally, it is certainly the decade of the exemplified by a youth culture that has abandoned any attempt at real originality for Microsoft in every home, a Jeep in every driveway, and and a goatee and earring adorning every other male's face.



(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:07 - ID#287358)
Envy's 17:51...
I don't understand how it can be that pork prices drop to an 18-year low, yet slaughterhouses *fear* being overwhelmed with demand after closing for a few days. If they do have strong demand, they should be very happy. I assume weaker than average demand has helped the slaughterhouses and the industry get where they are, with low prices and the s.h. closing for a few days. Also, seems as though the strongest demand would be just before ( American ) Thanksgiving, not after it.

Also, there was a sentence about better than expected crop in S. America that appeared to me to have an illogical effect on demand.

Maybe it's the editing of the article that leaves something to be desired?

I could be wrong about all the above, but I am practicing to question everything I read. A lot of what's written is written for effect, not for education. I guess we know that.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:12 - ID#219363)
" exemplified by a youth culture that has abandoned any attempt at real originality for Microsoft in every home, a Jeep in every driveway, and and a goatee and earring adorning every other male's face." *grrrr*

The Hatt
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:12 - ID#294232)
ABX Rumour Re Covering hedge Position...
Two months ago I reported that ABX was considering a proposal developed by a private consultant that recommended they close out their hedge and by doing so would realize a profit of one billion dollars. Many on this forum laughed at me, accused me of starting a rumour and being a fraud. Well the Hatt is about to be proven right, just cruise over to USA gold and check out todays commentary. My veiws may not always be the most popular but I can assure you that I donot start false rumours. If ABX is indeed in the process of closing out their hedge position or about to start, believe me, they are getting ready to go on a MASSIVE SHOPPING TRIP!

EZ Believer
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:13 - ID#226287)
JTF...The sad part is if it happened these people would burn the cities!
Then you will see what "Big Daddy" government is all about.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:16 - ID#341189)
Please continue to post the price of the Dow in real money.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:16 - ID#428232)
Farfel.......not so "far fetched"........
Your comment.....

"Because to sustain a market OUT of natural equilibrium requires constant vigilance and intervention. There is bound to come a time where Greenspan and Rubin are asleep at the wheel and "something" arrives to very quickly take the market back to its natural equilibrium. The resultant panic will be in complete inverse relationship to the current euphoria. "

THE "GOLDEN" EURO ?????????

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:25 - ID#230243)
Where's Puetz???

I really believe that Puetz gives LGB nigthmares
when considering Liberty's Loral holdings. Face it little grumpy ballbuster wants the best of both worlds______probable best reason why he here.
The US Government has no logical reason to hold gold. They can always confiscate Amazon and Yahoo, but please Al leave yer grimy hands off Loral.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:26 - ID#386245)
I LIKE your indices and wouldn't mind a copy by e-mail, s'il vous plait.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:28 - ID#341226)
@LGB...San Jose State? I hear the "Surfing" Major is pretty tough?
Date: Mon Nov 23 1998 14:21
LGB ( @ *Fspot..... Ivy League Schools / LTCM ) ID#269409:
Nice article in the WSJ on the 2 Doctorates and 20 MBA's who managed Long Term Capital Management, all grads from Ivy League schools. Their brilliant credentialed results on market calls mirror your own.

Re-inforces my beliefs on the value of grads from "Ivy Leauge" schools who's Mommy's and Daddy's sent the little pampered wastes of humanity, vs. folks who worked their way through "real" technical programs at "real" schools like SJS.


F* says:

LGibberish...Well, I don't know why you're so down on the LTCM Ivy League Grads who run the fund. After all, they are doing pretty nicely now, thanks to market intervention from your buddies Greenspan and Rubin. Hey, LTCM was in the black this past month, didn't you know?

In fact, thanks to such repeated intervention, you're sitting with a profit yourself instead of the inevitable loss a free market would bring an arrogant, airhead, "Surfing" major like yourself.



The Hatt
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:30 - ID#294232)
Internet stocks will be....
The technology version of Bre-x Gold.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:30 - ID#219363)
I don't know about the demand after Thanksgiving part, I guess Christmas maybe ? In any case, seems like a good season in S. America wouldn't push prices to 18 year lows unless something else was going on. As for editing, I always post the first paragraph or two for the sake of space, their words, not mine. I always put the link on as a reference. I'd love to hear other ways of seeing low grain, pork, gold, silver, oil, etc, that are different than the stuff we've been talking about here. Sounds to me like people are still making it, but fewer folks are buying it.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:31 - ID#26793)
Even if Rubin and Greenspan never fall asleep at the levers we have a major non-monetary problem of productive overcapacity. Automobiles probably make the best example. By year 2000 there will be productive capacity on-line to build 80,000,000 autos per year worldwide. They all expect to export these cars to the U.S. No one can afford them where they are being built.

These cars will never be sold at prices needed to pay for the factories. The factories are all highly leveraged. The same problem exists in textiles, steel, electronics, etc. Those countries must and will cut prices in the scramble for a dwindling number of creditworthy buyers.

The resultant decline in prices will spill over into financial derivatives that can not be unwound. The result will be a devastating deflation.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:34 - ID#287358)
Dialectic narratives..
I was thinking about the link re: the above, which Sharefin and others here mentioned recently. It is a great link. So now I think I know where some of the stuff comes from that is posted on this site. If you check the link and attempt to wade through the essay, you may be reminded of some posts. Press reload, and bingo, there's the next post.
Based on what I have read recently, for the time being at least, I've decided to buy physical only. A bit at a time, sometimes two-bits, while I await ( the likelihood of ) APH's silver call of 4.40 to be realized. Then to buy futures of a wide variety of silver contracts.

Nocte Volens
(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:42 - ID#39285)
a lot of us appreciate your efforts.

: )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:44 - ID#341226)
@DONALD...I agree complete about overcapacity... the auto sector resulting in deflation there.

However, it is always possible to have sectoral inflations in the midst of a general deflation. Ergo, the consequence is stagflation, namely rising interest rates with falling growth.

So, essentially, we are in agreement...yet slightly in disagreement.



P.S. Please keep posting your ratios. They are of notable interest...contrary to what a certain detractor of yours states. GG is simply one of several Bulls posting here who wishes to see evidence of capitulation on the part of goldbugs like yourself. Without such complete capitulation, then there will always be people like yourself ready to declare "The Emperor Wears No Clothes" with respect to this mass hysterical market. It is impossible to maintain such mass hysteria indefinitely so long as people like yourself are around to question the phenomenon.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:46 - ID#287358)

Thanks. To clarify, and I apologize, I was referring to the editing of the
original linked article, and not any editing of yours. I actually went quickly
to the link, and I *do* appreciate you and others who post links as the sources.

Yes, export demand is down, so many commodities are in oversupply. I just don't think that slaughterhouses need *fear* a rush of business. Unless they believe that the even-lower prices will result in newly kindled export business. That could be it. I was thinking of business only from American consumers. Thank you for helping me get clarity on this. I will work on attaining more of a global perspective.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:47 - ID#26793)
Dangerous overcapacity promises shakeout of glut ahead

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:47 - ID#219363)
Low Oil Prices Plague Producers
DENVER ( AP ) -- As world leaders cross swords over a glut oil supplies that has sent prices down to the lowest level in 11 years and consumers gleefully buy cheap gas, independent producers in the Rocky Mountains are struggling. Companies are laying off workers, selling property and eliminating unnecessary expenses. Many believe the situation mirrors a 1980s oil bust that battered the region. "The impact has been devastating," said Kevin Kauffman, who owns KP Kauffman Co., which has been in the business in Denver for 15 years. "I would say the oil and gas industry is nearing a depression level." Craig Creel, who owns Rio Chama Petroleum in Santa Fe, N.M., has put off some maintenance programs and delayed replacing an employee to save money. "It's a belt-tightening year," he said.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:49 - ID#368244)
Market Crash

Consider what a market crash would have done for the so called budget surplus. This is no holds barred politics, that will see its end at turn of the century. A culmination of events so powerful that it may shake civilisation to its core, this will be good. Right Sguirrel ? If I store nuts, I want to make sure i have a use for them, otherwise those sheeple might think me a fool.....and the beat goes on.....

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:50 - ID#287358)
Keep posting. Ignore detractors.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:56 - ID#242325)
If the market in general and the internet stocks in particular keep soaring like they did today, we could have a crash ( or at least a major correction ) before Santa comes to town. I have never seen the big cap stock market more overbought or overvalued than it is today. Bill Fleckenstein said this evening that today was the wildest speculative orgy he has seen in five years. And that is really saying something.

The deflationists on this site will be proved wrong as you said. As Martin Armstrong has pointed out the 1930s deflation reflected the fact that the world was then on a gold standard. And the supply of gold cannot be multiplied overnight. But today the world is on a dollar standard. And there is no limit to the potential supply. Milton Friedman was correct when he said that fighting deflation is the easist thing in the world if the will exists to do what is necessary -- inflate the supply of dollars and cut taxes.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:58 - ID#219363)
US Steel Makes Gain Against Imports
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The U.S. steel industry won another battle against cheap foreign imports Monday as the Clinton administration ruled that Japan and Russia might face additional duties. The Commerce Department found that imports doubled over five months as domestic producers were preparing their case to fight the shipments, making importers potentially liable for an additional 90 days of retroactive payments for any future finding of dumping. Although the United States has yet to impose any duties in the pending case, a lawyer for domestic steel producers said the latest preliminary ruling would help deter imports immediately. "We think that importers will not want to take the financial risk of having to post dumping duties," said Roger B. Schagrin. "We would expect the imports to essentially cease from those two countries."
@ChasAbar: Gotcha, I thought you were saying that my editing job was slanting the facts to support my view that deflation is happening in the US. I would resent that, since I don't edit articles to support my views, I just choose whole articles that support my views *grin*.
This particular article struck me because a few months ago when the deflation talk first started appearing on the forum it was mentioned that governments hadn't even started pulling out the big guns like trade restrictions and currency controls ( except in Indonesia or another devastated market ) . This article is the first I've really seen that says that the US will be putting trade barriers up to stop cheap imports, in essense, to defend local producers. This is counter to the "free world market" trend of NAFTA, et al. that the US has preached for the past while.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 19:58 - ID#290202)
........Whatever happened to............................................................
Nailz, and Milhouse, and Jin, and Niner, and John W, and senator blutarsky,

and Ron, and Robert McKinnon, and Fundametalist, and IV, and CMax,

and Steve ( Perth ) , and D.A., and Ted, and Markus, and geff, and Steve ( Harvester ) ,

and Achter, and Joe Smith, and K Smith, and LSteve, and RKM, and Ray,

and Puetz, and Allen, and oldman, and Kolorado, and vhale, and bartholomew, et al???

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:14 - ID#347457)
@GoGold and Donald

I am surprised that from all posting on this site, which mostly represents our wishful thinking about gold, you pick up on Donald who posts the real numbers reflecting reality of this market. Do you really prefer somebody's wild guess about the Gold soaring to $400 before the end of this year and DOW crashing tomorrow? If that were what you are looking for I would suggest the Disney World.

If Donald's indexes are too depressing for you, you should not be in PM market.

Donald, please, keep doing what you're doing.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:17 - ID#253260)

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:19 - ID#253260)
By all means, keep your posts coming.

Your posts are the only l00%accurate posts on kitco. Keeps us grounded in reality. TIA

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:19 - ID#290202)
.........if any of...
the aforementioned are lurking.......sound off!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:19 - ID#37463)
Dow & Nasdaq
None of you guys should be smoking near this market or the pent up gas could blow up exterminating half of the United States citizens. My thoughts regarding todays thrust in the paper market can best be summed up from Ezra 9:3 "And when I heard this thing, I rent my garment and my mantle, and plucked off the hair of my head and of my beard, and sat down astonied."

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:19 - ID#413273)
Miro\Donald ....ditto :-)


(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:24 - ID#190411)
If you would be so kind to email me your aforementioned chart, I would like to see it.


Grabbe has a good one at Laissez Faire City Times.

A must for the action of today.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:26 - ID#190411)
Savage, What about Bernatz du Ventadorn?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:30 - ID#254288)
As reported at USAGOLD, the producers are planing an attack
It's about time

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:30 - ID#238468)
Where are...?
Savage : in your 19:58, you forgot the most important, I named :

THE BIG BAD WOLF . . . remember, anybody ?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:31 - ID#210282)
Deflationists wrong? I think not -- but not totally right either.
Old Gold: Have you noticed that we have been in a deflationary mode for gold for the last 5 years? Just multiply the US dollar price of gold times the US dollar index, and plot it out. In fact, we have been in a deflationary mode since 1980. But -- gold has been rising in strength relative to the commodity price index ( cry0 ) since Jan 1998.

I am neutral on whether we will have more inflation or deflation. I am prepared for both. I think Martin Armstrong is wrong that inflating out of deflation is ( always ) easy --if he said that. Just look at all the countries that have failed to inflate their currency out of trouble. The recent debris from their deflationary collapses ( with subsequent inflation from currency devaluation ) can be seen dating back to 1980 in Japan.

I think a more accurate statement of what you are proposing ( and possibly that of Martin Armstrong ) is that a competent FED chairman such as AG can keep the delicately balanced fiat currency system going for years. He and his predecessors have already. The only problem with such finely tuned system is that one cannot guarantee that a credit/deflationary collapse will never occur. Eventually it will happen, as the inflationary machinery of the FED will become less effective as debt mounts over the decades, and corruption slowly creeps in. And there is the not so minor problem of pushing when one should pull -- the pushing on a string that always happens when the FED tries to start a moribund recessionary economy.

I think one major lesson we are getting from Japan is that once the deflationary/depression mentality sets in, it takes years before the public is willing to borrow and invest again. The Japanese Government has had 10 years of attempted inflation without success. And -- the Japanese are much more diligent savers than we are.

So -- my vote is for periods of inflation and deflation in the US -- the precise sequence/recipe is known only to those more clairvoyant than I. I will just keep on my toes. I will be more than glad to jump on the gold bandwagon when the opportunity arises, and sit on the sidelines when deflation dominates.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:33 - ID#290202)
Yes! Him too! ( although I think he was really John Disney in disguise )
I just mentioned a lot of folks that I haven't seen post for awhile; I'm
sure there are a lot I missed. I hope they all return when GOLD ramps up
in 99! ( ......yes!..... )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:35 - ID#404410)
Over capacity?
If there is over capacity, how come the semiconducter industry is going to raise prices ( 5 or 10 %, I forget which ) in the next 10 days? Announced on TV today. At least, this industry is shaping up.


(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:38 - ID#219363)
Missing in Action
What about Golden Cheese Head and Blooper ?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:41 - ID#290202)
I didn't realize that he ever left ( judging by the price 'o gold ) !.....Seriously,
I'm sure we all miss many of our "cyber family", and maybe someday....
at the great Kitco Reunion ( POG $400.+ ) ...........

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:48 - ID#344326)
@ Savage
don't forget Ziva. Isn't gogold also Bernatz/Hepcat?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:49 - ID#290456)

And The Preacher.....I REALLY miss his technical wizardry.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:49 - ID#210282)
Ft Knox security

Just a thought -- when do you really need more security at Fort Knox?

When you have gold and want to keep it,


When you have no gold and don't want anyone to find out?

It would be interesting to find out what level of security the key US Army personnel must have to work there. Wonder what kind of clearance AG is rated for. Could be higher even than for the US president.

Just imagine what it would be like if Commerce handled the security arrangements at Fort Knox. The whole world would know.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:50 - ID#347457)
@Savage and goldbugs missing in action
the last I've heard is that they ran out of money ( like the rest of us ) and had to sell their computers in order to maintain their positions in PM. You may be right that they will return in 99. Gold should be up and they might be able to pay Pawn Shop and get back their "posting tools" ;- )

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:52 - ID#242328)
Donald & Inevitable Deflation
While I won't argue Donald's basic premise ( although I disagree with
the order in which inflation/deflation will finally appear ) , I will
point out that Uncle Sam now has substantial leeway in fiscal
stimulus spending.

They could probably boost spending by $300B or so.

silver plate
(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:55 - ID#234253)
I hate it when LGB and Farfel go at it. A bunch of stupid drivel that takes up space and adds nothing to this site. How about banning both of them?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:56 - ID#219363)
Major Cigarette Price Hike Looms
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Philip Morris USA, the nation's biggest tobacco company, raised wholesale prices of Marlboros and its other cigarette brands by a record 45 cents a pack on the day the industry sealed a mammoth legal settlement with the states. No. 2 R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. joined the move Monday and others were expected to follow suit on what one analyst called the biggest U.S. cigarette price hike ever. It could push the average retail price of cigarettes to $2.45 a pack, and the price of premium brands like Marlboro even higher.
Time to start rolling my own.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:56 - ID#344326)
I also wonder if Golden Prophet is GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD. I think Blooper did one too many and got 404'd.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:57 - ID#386245)
Have just bought some puts. This kind of insanity cannot go on indefinitely. Late '99 on banks. When the lines start forming...

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:57 - ID#252150)
Tilting at windmills@Added to my AMAT & SPY shorts. Also shorted Alcan.
Bring on 10,000. I've got an oxygen mask.

Gusto Oro
(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:58 - ID#430260)

Ezra said that when the Vickings kicked the Packers Sunday. --AG

(Mon Nov 23 1998 20:59 - ID#225236)
Deflation, Inflation, Money
Before the infaltion/deflation issue can be answered, let me ask some stupid question:

What is money?!!!

When gold was money/money was gold the inflation/deflation questions could be answered simply. Today, is a different world. Hilary is featured on the cover of Vogue magazine as a model of "women dignity" for letting Bill run around with cheap sluts. What is dignity and what is money?

After dollar was de-coupled from gold, everything became relative. To allow government to spend money, without infalting ( ? ) the main money supply ( or M1 ) , other cathegories of money were created: M1, M2, M3, M4, government bonds ( are all these nmoney?! ) What if one of the cathegories increases drastically ( inflation ) and other decreases drastically ( deflation ) - what is it then?! Is government debt money?

To preserve retirement money, people started buying stocks. To preserve excess money generated in an up-business cycle, companies started buying stocks ( are stocks money? )

To feed the appetites for stocks, a lot of companies went public that never made any money ( here is that word again ) and never had a plan to make money ( internet stocks ) . Are internet stocks money?

If M1 dramatically decreases and total capitalization of internet stocks dramatically increases, what is it, inflation or deflation?

Current US financial system is a ton of garbage built upon a ton of garbage, built upon a ton of garbage, etc. The government has effectively declared that the old rules of economy ( producers, consumers, supply, demand, balanced books, debt amortization, competition, trade balance ) no longer apply. Well, the rules of nature ( real economy is based on rules of nature ) have a tendency to re-assert themselves in a drastic fashion. The longer the garbage is fixed with dirty tricks the larger it grows and the harder it is going to crash.

The prediction of the centenial correction made by prominent E-wave theorists that was to start in 1996 did not come true. Was this wishful thinking? Are we perhaps destined to ride the millenium wave?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:00 - ID#286224)
Re: Gold at Fort Knox?
A question from the ignorant:

Is the supposed gold at Ft. Know supposed to belong to the US GOvt. or the Fed Reserve Bank?

What Major gold stash is held in NY City Gold and who does if bolong to?

Thanks.. ( just trying to get things straight )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:01 - ID#210282)
Need for transparency in gold trading
Jack: I think there is one corollary to your interesting post. If there is a move afoot to make gold trading more transparent, it can mean only one thing -- the Central Banks are now less interested in trading themselves -- so there is less need for secrecy.

Perhaps the gold traders are feeling the pinch -- and want to liven things up a bit by stimulating a gold bull. Perhaps the CB's now want gold to rise a bit. Would make sense. What better way to push the US dollar down, and push up those currencies extensively backed by gold.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:02 - ID#225236)
Inflation, Deflation, Money
Before the infaltion/deflation issue can be answered, let me ask some stupid question:

What is money?!!!

When gold was money/money was gold the inflation/deflation questions could be answered simply. Today, is a different world. Hilary is featured on the cover of Vogue magazine as a model of "women dignity" for letting Bill run around with cheap sluts. What is dignity and what is money?

After dollar was de-coupled from gold, everything became relative. To allow government to spend money, without infalting ( ? ) the main money supply ( or M1 ) , other cathegories of money were created: M1, M2, M3, M4, government bonds ( are all these nmoney?! ) What if one of the cathegories increases drastically ( inflation ) and other decreases drastically ( deflation ) - what is it then?! Is government debt money?

To preserve retirement money, people started buying stocks. To preserve excess money generated in an up-business cycle, companies started buying stocks ( are stocks money? )

To feed the appetites for stocks, a lot of companies went public that never made any money ( here is that word again ) and never had a plan to make money ( internet stocks ) . Are internet stocks money?

If M1 dramatically decreases and total capitalization of internet stocks dramatically increases, what is it, inflation or deflation?

Current US financial system is a ton of garbage built upon a ton of garbage, built upon a ton of garbage, etc. The government has effectively declared that the old rules of economy ( producers, consumers, supply, demand, balanced books, debt amortization, competition, trade balance ) no longer apply. Well, the rules of nature ( real economy is based on rules of nature ) have a tendency to re-assert themselves in a drastic fashion. The longer the garbage is fixed with dirty tricks the larger it grows and the harder it is going to crash.

The prediction of the centenial correction made by prominent E-wave theorists that was to start in 1996 did not come true. Was this wishful thinking? Are we perhaps destined to ride the millenium wave?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:02 - ID#219363)
USDA To Buy $50 Million of Pork
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Just days after the nation's hog farmers said falling prices were devastating their business, the government agreed Monday to buy $50 million worth of pork. "Pork producers are experiencing more than a 50 percent decrease in hog prices from last year," Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said in a statement. "This purchase is the latest in a series of steps the Clinton administration has taken to assist pork producers in these difficult economic times." The pork included in Monday's announcement will be distributed to recipients of the federal food assistance program. Glickman said the purchase, along with a recent announcement to buy 50,000 metric tons of pork to send to Russia, should help bolster prices -- now at their lowest in 27 years.
Ooooooh yeah. The ole government subsidy strategy, that's gotta good track record.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:02 - ID#290202)
.......Envy, Crazytimes, Silverbaron and Miro........

You guys have good memories. The list if MIAs keeps growing. Any of you
guys lurking? ..........Miro ( your 20:50 ) "ran out of money"......I can relate LOL!!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:04 - ID#344326)
@ SWP1
Good Question! Sometimes for all the incredible knowledge on this site there are some very basic things that I don't know. My hunch is that the Fort Knox Gold is the US Government and the Federal Reserve is in NY. But I could be wrong. Also another question...What is the actual physical location of COMEX?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:05 - ID#147201)
Sharefin @ 13:42 & SDRer @ 16:08
My radar is not tuned well yet, but the reference you both made to the Awful Mae etc and including FDIC as well as credit card latitutes leads me to suspicion that the credit yoke on the population makes the LTCM look like a back alley crap shoot. I wish I could specify this better, but my concept involves the mortgage market, the FDIC loop holes and the credit card deals are suck ins like Las Vegas compared to the local poker house which is compared to LTCM types. Can you help me aim my radar??

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:06 - ID#423313)
Bananas and steel
So much for free trade. Notice that we ( the US ) only embraces free trade when it means we can export more. Not even the Republicans like free trade if it hurts big business. By the way, historically Republicans have been the protectionist forces; for some reason they reversed positions after the depression ( hmmmmmm ) until Pat Buchanan started blowing the protectionist horn again. With the steel issue, the unions and Bethlehem Steel actually joined each other in their fight against imports.

Can we ban imported gold in the US? Jus kiddin.

On another point. The reason the fed lowered interest rates again was to relieve the credit crunch which was real and hit real hard. I know several Fortune 500 companies put a lot of projects on hold as their sources of financing dried up. The Fed was trying to reassure the banks ( not the borrowers ) that things would be ok.

The best leading indicator that the market is about to crash? When we stop getting credit card applications in the mail. And your credit card interest rates rise. And your credit lines shrink. This is a consumer debt financed expansion. The 'soft landing' in 1995 was directly linked to a temporary slow down in consumer borrowing. As soon as people slow down that credit card action, the balloon goes 'pop!'

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:07 - ID#286230)
Somebody -- about 2-3 weeks ago -- made the argument that the onset of the 29 depression included a long run up and quick short drop followed by a second run up and after that the now famous decline in '29. Can that be reposted or someone who knows reiterate the events in some detail?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:09 - ID#190411)
Prometheus, MIA
I went back a few minutes ago, to the depths of despair, ( late August ) . looking for some of the posters that have moved on.
I came across Pete's August 31, 23:53 piece. If that one isn't spot on, what would be.
I don't know how to paste that one to tonight's dialog, but maybe someone else could.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:12 - ID#344326)
For ERLE....the post....and where is Prometheus?
Date: Mon Aug 31 1998 23:53
Pete ( ALL-Dead cat bounce? ) ID#222231:
Copyright  1998 Pete/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Even as bad as the drop has been the past week I think we have one more leg up, possibly to 10,000 before the final implosion. I will try to enumerate as follows:

( 1 ) Many have profits that would be subject to capital gains taxes of 20% or more. The herd will not sell until their losses are substantially greater than 20%.

( 2 ) The herd mentality will be to reenter the market at 7000+ as a buying opportunity one last time because they have the mistaken belief that the equity market is still viable.

( 3 ) The FRB will lower rates very soon because if they don't, they will fear the consequences.this will give one more final breath of life to the market.

( 4 ) Finally the pundits and media will be convincing the herd not to panic, a fact that is apparent from surveys of the ignorent investors. This will give the imputus to # ( 2 ) .

All of the above should occur within the next two months. Do not despair for I believe this will be the last hurrah before the final meltdown. The precious metals will shine as never before shortly thereafter. IMHO.

I for one have no empathy for greedy investors that expect 20%-30% gains yearly forever. They will finally get what they rightfully deserve.

Gone fishing, not for good buys? but the real thing. BBML.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:13 - ID#290456)
JTF @ Ft. Knox

There's another possibility:

What if you DID have the gold, and wanted to make it as safe as possible. You might build a secure ( but dummy ) fortress and advertise that it contains all your gold....meanwhile you were long ago busy hiding it somewhere else - maybe deep in a hideaway somewhere like...Thunder Mountain? Bikini Atoll? Tolerant1's house?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:14 - ID#344326)
and what about Ray as in "Tally Ho!"

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:18 - ID#390249)
gold update
Interesting ECB stuff in today's gold update

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:19 - ID#190411)
Good chuckle about T1. The problem with him, is he is giving it all away: to kids, no less.
crazytimes, thanks for the repost. How do you do that?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:23 - ID#219363)
How about all the miners get together and go complain to the President that the slump in gold is forcing layoffs in remote rural areas where the mines are located. Then maybe he'll get the FED to purchase more gold. Well, if there is a sudden press release that the government is buying up gold, we know what happened.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:25 - ID#190411)
I got my Pt eagles that I ordered on advice of Kaplan. He was right on that one too. Platinum has advanced enough to make back the coin premium, and a bit more.
Some other guys. I'd like to read more of SpudMaster, and where is AJ from Arkansas?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:25 - ID#252150)
Petronius@ $850,000--Cheap sluts??
Of course, he can still rationalize that he did'nt pay for it.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:29 - ID#290202)
......'baron.........(your 21:13)
Sounds like a movie script. Ever done any screenwriting?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:32 - ID#411163)
Crossbow-re:Generators 25kw
Someone else posted this place also 1-800-556-7885 or they have a site
@ item# 16471-b204 $2120.00
They didn't give the tractor size to run it but I imagine it would not be a large one-just my very uneducated guess.
Insure also said to give WW Grainger a call. They are everywhere. I never thought of them. If you find out what HP you need ( tractor size )
please post it.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:34 - ID#386245)
ERLE@cut 'n paste
1 ) hold down left mouse button and move it over the post
to 'highlight' what you want to cut.
2 ) go up to edit on your task bar and press 'copy'.
3 ) come back to Kitco post mode.
4 ) go up to edit and 'paste' it wherever you have your blinking cursor.

Cheers, Nick.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:38 - ID#254288)

We all have absorbed the many reason's for golds dismal performance, just perhaps those guys might uncover something concrete; that is, if they are not at the root themselves. How this all plays out can be revealing, eye opening, even knock our blocks off.
From reading the article, it seems that the WGC's existence was really on the line as intimated here some months ago.
We all learn, I hope.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:39 - ID#290456)

Not 'til now....know where I can get a gig? ( LOL )

I think NTEOWAWKI has the only talent around here for that kind of stuff.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:40 - ID#370218)
oxymoron....long and commodities...Yes!
Think about it!


(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:41 - ID#190411)
Thanks Nick@C,
I'll learn.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:46 - ID#404312)

there is a very good match between thedaily gold
chart and the weekly t bill chart of 1989-1990

I look for this three week bull move to persist.
Today's action was encouraging given that over the
last couple of weeks on down days we've only been
about a dollar or so away from a serious breakdown
of the entire 3 month old formation. We can't
afford to go sideways and we need to take out the
recent high of 299.1 this week. If we break
today's low, forget it for a couple weeks

The ball is in the silver bear's court. If they
can't break this market down tomorrow, I think we
could see some serious buying. That BIG downtrend
line off the 4/3 and 7/24 highs is at around 497.5 tomorrow and dropping about a penny a day. Bears can't afford a sideways market.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 21:51 - ID#290202)
......Yes, NTEOTWAWKI has talent. But, methinks he is not alone on the
field........RJ perhaps?..........where is RJ anyway?... btw where did you get
your handle? Did you ever see the great Coalbaron JW Thompson's
mansion in Uniontown, Md.?? Now, THAT was a house! ( circa 1900 )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:00 - ID#290456)

This handle was picked up from some of my co-workers back maybe 4-5 years ago....I was buying a lot of junk silver and silver dollars at the time, and trying my best to talk everyone else into it.

Of course, no one did ( silver was the LAST thing they would ever invest in ) , and the handle kind of stuck as an un-kind label. They thought I was nuts then....and I think that they still do. ( ( LOL ) )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:04 - ID#290456)

I agree with you about RJ....he definitely has a lot of potential as a gut feeling is that he would be better as a novelist than a screenwriter....but what the heck do I know.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:07 - ID#25257)
Don't forget Jonesy and Veronsky...Not to mention Mike Whatsit?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:12 - ID#25257)
I think they give the engine size to be 50hp, which is bigger than the average Farm tractor. My Deere 1050 is 40 horse. You should look at their smaller unit which requires only about 40 horsepower and outputs 12000 Watts.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:13 - ID#411140)
It is not your father's market anymore and the NEW PARADIGM is indeed upon us.
All manner of insanity is possible when you KNOW you do not have to balance the books. If you find yourself scratching your head to make sense of it all, remember Y2K is going to give all neocheating, currency debasing, parasitical politicians the oppurtunity to wipe all the debit books clean so they can commence another mellenium of stealing the value away from the honest working classes.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:14 - ID#290456)
By The Way

Everyone knows the gold isn't in Ft. Knox anymore, it's in Area 51.

Why do you think they have all those armed guards authorized to use deadly protect captured space aliens?

I'm outahere.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:14 - ID#45173)
Since the stock market's been a'rocketin' a few Kitco regulars are rare
Where's Gollum-san? Where's RJ?


(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:16 - ID#290202)
.....evidently, quite a lot. Don't sell yourself ( or your silver ) short.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:16 - ID#219363)
Japan Stocks Soar in AM Session
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Share prices in Tokyo soared Tuesday morning following a new record high on Wall Street. The dollar was higher against the yen. The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 211.85 points, or 1.43 percent, to 14,991.79 to close the morning session. Earlier, the index had climbed briefly above 15,000 points for the first time since Sept. 9. Markets were closed for a national holiday on Monday. On Friday, the Nikkei gained 425.48 points, or 2.96 percent. The dollar bought 121.42 yen, up 1.26 yen from late Friday in Tokyo and also above its New York level of 120.99 yen late Monday. In New York on Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 214.72, closing at a new record high of 9,374.27 points, boosted by news of possible takeovers of Bankers Trust Corp. by Germany's Deutsche Bank AG and of Netscape Communications Corp. by America Online Inc. The Dow's previous record was 9337.97, set in July. The rally continued in Tokyo.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:26 - ID#25257)
Happy Days
Since it is impossible for the Lord of All Creation to bless a Proud and Boastful Heart, the Self-Proclaimed experts and Gurus must all retreat to the shadows and lick their wounds just before the big wave comes. As They fall away and dump their troves, the tsunami will begin.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:32 - ID#227238)
Was tulips money? How 'bout shares in the Mississippi Company? How 'bout Bernie Cornfeld's great venture of the '60s? ..... Bob and Al's most excellent adventure of the '90s is next. ...... Everyone here got gold??? EJ's survey is not reassuring. Some are not doing their part. .. :- ) )

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:35 - ID#266105)

The randian Chris last seen headed out to sea. Ginzburg.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:40 - ID#421269)

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:40 - ID#227238)
Got any weather down there? ..... Seems to be blowing out the candles here in PDX.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:45 - ID#421269)


Hope this helps.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:47 - ID#45173)
Got your email. Will resond tomorrow.

Looks like one big 'ol worldwide equity party, eh?

Nikkei back to 40,000, DOW to 15000. Woo hoo! All aboard!

What's that smell?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:48 - ID#266105)

Earl- yup, off and on today. More mia's-- the long-winded
iconoclast Bill somebody who's schtick was the replacement
of structures economic in form and function by those political
in content. Searle/Byron-at-the-library waft SI.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:48 - ID#350358)
Imrahil Credit card applications?
You know, come to think of it, those have taperd off a bit. Now let me see, when did I get the last one. ( Oh yeah, and let me check if I've paid my bill .... )

Yep I paid my bill, ... and you know, the last few I got were offering 'even more' services and insurances for if I had problems paying my bill .... For a damn hefty fee of course ....

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:48 - ID#233243)
Photographs of Fort Knox (as it were)
Sorry, but I couldn't seem to make the link active so you'll have to cut and paste.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:49 - ID#233243)
Hey! It worked!
Seems empty doesn't it?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 22:57 - ID#219363)
Yep, beyond belief. I mean that, it truly is something to see, amazing. Be it a blow off rally, the big "end of the world" party or just another day in the life of a horned cow, it's impressive and I'm having fun watching it. As insane as I think the gains in the tulips have been these past weeks, it's still something you just have to chuckle at while it's going on, some folks really are making some money if they can control their greed when the time comes. Gotta sell high. Btw, cool about email, just any old time, I'm not one for answering email for days usually.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:01 - ID#227238)
Think I missed something ..... what's your source for those generator sets? That's a lot of power at reasonable prices. It would be nice to find a smaller size that operates at 1800 RPM.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:04 - ID#228128)
Can anyone explain the impact of these options on the POG? See below
This from the New York Post:


THE "Y2K problem" - the need to reprogram computers to correctly recognize and store dates after the turn of the century - is generating a lot of overtime for the consultants whose predecessors created the problem in the first place.

Now it seems that Y2K is helping to reignite speculative demand for gold.

Sorry, goldbugs, I mean "investment demand."

Some of this has been reflected in sales of gold coins. People out there in the country across the Hudson are buying them at an all time record rate. In the third quarter alone, sales of coins in the United States were up to 772,000 ounces, a 170 percent increase over the third quarter of 1997.

Presumably they get stored next to the assault rifles and canned goods that will see their owners through the financial market turmoil and general social disruption. Who knows? Maybe they'll be laughing at us, just before they pull the triggers.

But the prospect of millenarian mayhem may be causing a bizarre imbalance in the gold pit of the Comex exchange downtown.

The gold option contract with the largest open interest on the exchange is the December 1999 call, specifically the 390 call. A call contract gives the owner, in return for a premium, the right, but not the obligation, to take delivery of a commodity, in this case 100 ounces of gold.

The 390 call lets those owners acquire gold at a price of $390 an ounce, whatever the spot price is at that time. This promise is backed up by the AAA rating of the Commodity Exchange, Inc., which the millenarians might not believe will survive the New Year.

The December 1999 call will expire on the second Friday in November of the year. As of Nov. 18, the total amount of gold call options for that 390 contract was over 3,200,000 ounces, which is over 90 tonnes of gold. The total gold calls for the whole month is over 180 tonnes. That's a lot of gold.

To put that position in context, the January 1999 call options total a little over 660,000 ounces, or about 20 tonnes.

Said one gold trader on the Comex floor, "If gold comes in $30 an ounce better ( it closed Friday at $296.05 spot ) it's going to be a T-Rex. Then it would be unhedgeable. The whole thing is weird. The date is all wrong. The size is all wrong. It looks random, erroneous."

By "unhedgeable," our trader means that it would not be practical to lay off the risk on other gold market participants. When market makers on the floor of the exchange sell calls, they don't plan to go into their private vault and take out 100 ounce gold bars and hand them over to you if the price moves in your favor.

They buy some call options or futures on their own from other dealers or exchanges who can get the gold from mines or central banks who have the physical gold to sell.

But the Dec 1999 calls are such a big, odd position that it would be difficult to lay off the risk. Our trader has heard the talk that this position has been built up by individuals who are betting on Y2K problems. But he's skeptical.

"Maybe 10 percent of the volume on this exchange represents retail, on average. This is a professional market, not a retail market. This just doesn't make sense."

Because the Y2K position doesn't "make sense," right now it's created a lot of inefficiencies in the pricing of gold options before and after the Dec 99s.

And those inefficiencies are the source of profit for the floor traders.

By the way, for their own account, many if not most of them are dubious about gold as an investment. "It's been the worst investment in the universe," says our trader. "The cash costs of mining keep dropping, and the supply goes up."

So where's the possibility of $390 gold? Do the Y2K paranoids know something? Or is it just a small ring of buyers. There is some talk that this is a very small group doing this.

"This isn't going away," says the trader. "It's going to get bigger and it could become a magnetic issue."

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:05 - ID#218248)
Heres what I think of this market. Repost from last night.

Date: Sun Nov 22 1998 17:54
kapex ( Take the money and RUN!!!! ) ID#218248:
Copyright  1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We now have hit 5 year highs in bullish sentiment, 57%, versus 31.6% bears. Everyone I talk to, and I mean everyone is
in this market. I have never seen sentiment this optimistic! This market is in deep s _ _ t!!
I would even go so far as to say the top of Wave ( 2 ) is complete. The pattern was a a-b-c -x- a-b-c. Put call ratio hit
40 on friday which is one tick off the 5 year lows. This is not the kind of action that you see after a 20% decline! Reality
is about to set in. Every index with the exception of the Dow declined in 5 waves. Most people who were calling for
devasting new lows have all changed their tune. Why? I had stated near the lows that the wave 2 up would be
breathtaking, and suck everyone back in. It has, including the most die hard bears.
Just remember, this market won't telegraph it's next decline. You just better be the heck out of the way when it begins.

After todays rally I can't wait to see the put - call numbers in the paper tomorrow. Tulips anyone?

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:08 - ID#25257)
Good Call
Excellent Kapex.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:09 - ID#421269)

Earl, I own and operate a home center in Louisiana, I have many sources and probable could find better prices. The prices I posted are from W.W. Grainger which have locations through out the U.S.

I don't try and sell here but if I can help with any info. I will be more than happy to for my Kitco brothers and sisters

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:16 - ID#227238)
Old Gold:
Couldn't respond to your earlier post but, if it be your desire to pee on the DOW/SP parade; the VIX closed today at 20.59. At the July top, it was at 17. Puts should be priced similarly. .... Even if the crash is not imminent, some puts might do well for even for a normal counter trend pullback.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:18 - ID#227238)
Thanks. I have an account with WWG. They tend to be higher priced for so many things that I overlooked them on this issue.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:20 - ID#341234)
To: Shelby
There was only 1 peak in the Dow in '29. Check for yourself at:

I found this at Colin's Financial Pages at:

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:20 - ID#219363)
Sunshine, Blue Skies
I'm still holding PUT options against some of this junk. *grin*. I'm glad I bought after the first two rate cuts or I would have been burned on the premiums, but more than that I'm glad it was only play money. Still, some of stocks I'm against are not looking unstoppable, they just can't seem to push past their old highs, close, but no cigar. I'm going to let these bets run to expiration, if something bad happens to this market, I want to be holding a ticket. If we push past my expiration dates I'll pick up more on the other side when the time is right. And in the spirit of fessing up on your bad bets as well as your good -

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:24 - ID#218248)
Something to think about!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Right now, anyone who WAS bearish about this market feels that they are wrong. EVERYONE!!!! When has sentiment ever been this one sided? Hmmmmmmmmm!

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:28 - ID#254288)
Just my simple opinion

At todays price gold is good insurance; I mean how much further can it drop? What can one lose, especially when compared to the recent currency bloodbaths. We don't get rebates on our auto or home owner policies, but we can sell our gold.

The marginal miners are a majority; many are highgrading to extend their longivity, or to pay the banker, if the price turns favorable, the existing lower grade ores might not turn the neccessary profit to continue paying the piper.

They will still be in the predicament - pay the banker, or shut down.

I'm in the camp that believes annual world gold production has not yet experienced the ballyhooed decline.

If the gold price reaches US $500 or higher, the above reasoning will be wrong.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:36 - ID#25257)
New England just scored with 29 seconds on the clock to move ahead of Miami by three.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:38 - ID#254288)
Just my simple opinion, with slight change in the last sentence

At todays price gold is good insurance; I mean how much
further can it drop? What can one lose, especially when
compared to the recent currency bloodbaths. We don't get
rebates on our auto or home owner policies, but we can
sell our gold.

The marginal miners are a majority; many are highgrading
to extend their longivity, or to pay the banker, if the
price turns favorable, the existing lower grade ores
might not turn the neccessary profit to continue paying
the piper.

They will still be in the predicament - pay the banker,
or shut down.

I'm in the camp that believes annual world gold
production has not yet experienced the ballyhooed

If the gold price reaches US $500 or higher, the above
reasoning -relative to the mining companies- will be wrong.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:41 - ID#219363)
Levi Strauss To Shut Down 2 Plants
TORONTO ( AP ) -- Levi Strauss & Co. is temporarily closing two Ontario factories and laying off 200 workers at a third, company officials said Monday. A jeans plant in Cornwall will close for three months starting Dec. 1, affecting 421 workers, and a plant in Stoney Creek employing 450 days will close for 23 days starting Dec. 21, officials said. The temporary shutdowns are a way to limit inventory of Levi's jeans, the company said.
"D" word.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:46 - ID#257253)
Isure, et al
Generators: you have finally got it right with 1800 RPM ( or less ) , and you also seem to realize that generators have gone through a large deflation like many other Japanese-competed industrial equipment. Dont buy a new one, unless you have to, and stick to names you REALLY recognize. For instance, Onan is good but you must purchase parts from them alone. There will be THOUSANDS of generators for sale after Y2K sorts itself out, so you can be sure that the factories at Honda, and such consumer goods producers are running full tilt, feeding the baby boomer paranoia. Better to buy good used, because those being sold now are expressly being produced to satisfy this bubble of demand. FWIW, just get some gold and you will be able to buy whatever you want when the time comes.
MIA's. I have not posted lately because I cannot figure out the market or even what to say about it. Sense has escaped even the commons. And we know not where it takes us.
But look at the bright side: even if all we goldbugs are wrong, then there is surely nirvana awaiting, and the world be so prosperous that there will be microsoft and aol paper currency, tied to the value of their stock, fungible for all debts, public and private. There is really nothing to fear for gold's failure as a haven. We can't lose!

In My Humble Search for Truth.

PS: I have not given up on Gold, Silver, or honesty, or any other things of REAL worth on this planet.



(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:49 - ID#288264)
James Stack
What we find most distressing about recent action ( particularly today's mad frenzy fueled by Internet speculation and takeovers ) , is NOT that market indexes are hitting new highs. That, we've said for many weeks, is possible if not probable with the "bubble" psychology still intact on Wall Street. What WE are concerned about is the greatly increased likelihood that this will now end in a crash.

On the technical front, we are not surprised but amazed at the divergences. The Nasdaq had more DOWNSIDE breadth on a 3pt LOSS eight days ago than it had in UPSIDE breadth on today's 49pt GAIN

The Call/Put Ratio and Pressure Factor have BOTH soared to their most bearish readings for ALL of 1998. This is a truly amazing blow-off... when it ends, it'll be spectacular. But in the meantime, we can't say where it will end.

We can't rule out a run to DJIA 10,000 in this mania. And second, if it is a blow-off rally, there'll be no time for bulls to get out, or for bears to re-establish short positions after the top.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:52 - ID#411163)
Earl-Zeke-Crossbow-Insure, Generators
I took a better look at the 25kw ad. I also have another pnone number
1-800-317-1260. The ad states it requires 540 rpm from a 50 power takeoff horse power of better is needed to for full rated output. The unit looks to have a gearbox and that it tuns at 3600 rpm. I am assuming that the tractor speed is low and so is gas consumption. What I do not know but assume is that the RPM has to be right on to get "good" power voltage. If I am wrong then the rpm could be slowed down to match power usage ( very unlikely ) 25kw would be enough for 5 homes at once I would guess.

(Mon Nov 23 1998 23:58 - ID#25257)
@Rack--Re: Horsepower
You'll find these horsepower curves to be very steep in that deviation from suggested operating speeds will cost a great deal in fuel consumption. It's always better to drop down in horsepower and maintain a design speed than to vary speed to control horsepower output.