Thanks. I'll look into it in the morning.

You can get the put/call ratio at http://www.cboe.com

I read elsewhere that it is now .32

Anyone care to join me on the railroad track?? There is a passenger train headed straight for me. It is full of people having the wildest party you have ever seen!! Drunk as skunks, the lot of them!! And I'm too dumb to get out of the way. You see, I think the train is a mirage.

Hope this cartoon turns out like the roadrunner. You know, where Wiley Coyote gets up after every disaster. Beep Beep!! Or should I say OOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! TO ALL YOU WILEY COYOTES OUT THERE.

for Nick ..
Regarding genetic replicate .. He wins more often then
he loses.. stops himself out vigorously .. is very
patient .. and by the way does NOT take after his
mother.

...on The Street. I've been standing aside for some time now.

Remember, this is Thanksgiving week...it is very important that, when all the Wall Street Bull analysts, the Fed Chair, and Treasury Secretary finally sit down with their respective families around the turkey, that everybody's various DOW and NASDAQ investments be "above water!"

It would have been a very gloomy Thanksgiving indeed with lots of "I told you so's" thrown at all the Dow cheerleaders....if the DOW and NASDAQ had not made their triumphant upmove this week. The whole thing smacked of "concerted action," with the corporations targeting all these various merger possibilities for announcement yesterday.

It is yet further evidence of the government and corporate America pulling out all the stops necessary to try and sustain this euphoric Bull ad infinitum. This ultra-corrupt Clinton government is in full cahoots with the major corporations...and now it seems, certainly, even the hedge funds. It would be the height of naivete ( and I ain't naive any longer! ) to imagine that LTCM and other notable money-losing hedge funds were NOT provided insider information about the exact timing of Greenspan's rate cuts and future corporate merger announcements so as to position their new investments accordingly. The government will do everything in its power to clean up the red ink spilled by the hedge funds...that was certainly proven by Greenspan's egregious,morally hazardous intervention to bail out LTCM and save it from the deserved repercussions of its collapsing investments.

I have alluded to this in the past and it smacks of true fascism ( not in the colloquial sense commonly utilized by my slightly confused San Jose State"Surfing"-major buddy, LGBUGALISTICIBERTY...but rather the real definition of "fascism," to wit government by corporations ) .

Still, the salient question remains...how long can fund inflows be maintained at such high levels to keep the DOW in its drunken bubbled state? The foreign inflows must surely dwindle if the Dollar weakens notably...and the domestic inflows must surely fall if employment drops and rates rise.

There is bound to be a left field event coming that will finally put an end to this madness...I have a fairly good idea what future event might occur that NOT even Greenie or Rubin can remedy...yet until it arrives, just stand out of the way of the maddened crowd!

Thanks.

F*

because it has now almost completed a 40 day down cycle, has finished a

62% retracement, and today went to a new two month low on lower volume,

with no follow through; resulting in a bullish Harami candle pattern with

counter attack line. Two important trendlines come down about 5 5/8 and 5 7/8, and if exceeded could provide extra impetus. This is a sick dog that might bark.

Naturally, I wish the American Kitcoites the best holiday...yes, even my oddball nemeses like RJ ( "hope you didn't come down with crabs or clap in Jamaica, old buddy" ) and LGBUGALISTICIBERTY ( "hope you and all your San Jose surfing dudes enjoy a nice fat turkey together" )

Enjoy, enjoy.

Love & Peace.

Farfel

...........what event?

"Madding Crowd"...What a Concept!

Amazing! I've been wanting to buy CDE. Since I own HL and GSLM, CDE has a higher Beta, and thus appeals to my more Beta interests. What do you suggest as a potential buy point ( price ) ?

I like genetic replicate's site. I don't particularly follow the voodoo chart analysis ( I prefer 5 waves on the beach ) , but if it works for him and he actually USES stops, then he is way ahead of most punters. Has obviously got his head screwed on straight. Chip off the old block!!

00:34
Peas@last
Nick
I agree, the bank puts are less likely to suffer settlement/Herstadt risk than those Gold 390 Dec 99 Calls that have been posted several times here. Just wonder if de chickens are gonna be coming home to roost by then.

Axually, I think I can see the chickens on yon horizon, yep the cocks are heading this way, and the leading cocks have got no heads..SNAFU

Saw some micro-hydro power generators on the net but don't know a thing about them. One of these gadgets claims 10kw's, but it says it needs 36 liters/second of water flow. Question is, how much is 36 liters/second of water flow ? Can somebody tell me ? Put it in layman's terms, you know, dripping facet, little creek, river 3 foot wide and one foot deep running down the side of a mountain, big huge river, niagra falls, etc.

LugubriousMaximus!

Yesterday in Tokyo three separate train and subway lines were delayed when three unrelated business men jumped in front of their trains. And the pity is, the family must pay for the cost ( unless the jumper has taken suicide insurance - yes, there is such a thing ) .

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- What in the universe is going on in the stock market, which all over again resembles a smiling cartoon-character balloon that escapes from a Thanksgiving Day parade? A few weeks ago, all the world's worries had descended on investor spirits, suffocating them under a wet blanket of fears and uncertainties that ran all the way from Asian turmoil to their own household debts. Suddenly, the depressive issues that were said in late summer to be fundamentally based, are of little concern at all. Never mind that they are still there; in the market's manic state they seem not to count.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1f.htm

More bearish. http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/copt1.htm

That's almost 10 galons per second. Sounds like quite a gusher. The other significant thing is the pressure. Obviously there is a whole lot more energy in a flow of 10 gal/sec at 100 psi than 10 gal/sec at 1 psi. One is a super firehose, the other a lazy creek.

goes down and closes under 5 3/8. Remember it's a Pitt Bull only friendly to owners.

I like the bank puts, mate. Volatility is the name of the game. The Asian debt crisis is not YET over. Our banks are exposed.

But the main reason ( "NICHOLAS--NEVER start a sentence with the word 'but'!!!"--Year 7 English teacher ) ---where was I?? But the main reason I am buying Bank puts is because the FEAR over Y2K is going to be worse than the actual event ( IMHO ) !! I reckon that by about mid 1999 we shall have a MAJOR disaster of some sort. The possibilities:
1 ) Y2K fear induced havoc--eg-bank runs etc.
2 ) Wall Street crash--albeit in slow motion due to the power of the PPT.
3 ) War in Korea or Middle East or Upper Slobovia.
4 ) Major deflation well under way ( related to #2 ) .

You can buy puts with 9 to 10 months to expiry with strikes 5-20% below today's prices. Series lows as I speak. Good odds for funny money.

So if you have 10gal/sec, how can you get more pressure ? I'm guessing you have to dam the water up so that you have a large column of water above whatever generator you're using. Right ? If that's the case, it sounds perfect for water flowing down the side of a steep mountain, even if there isn't a huge amount of water.

Nick@cannie_investor
No arguments from this side of the ditch.

That is correct. Given rate = 10 gal/sec I am sure that the height of the water column necessary to generate 12KW could be calculated.

Your bank/y2k panic idea is interesting. Got a few hundred $ am willing to gamble on it. Care to give specific puts you find promising? Will take full responsibility for any losses, and promise that I probably won't sue.

Envy 36 liters/second = 9.51 gallons/second.

jpb--reminds me of the executions in China. They make the family pay for the bullet!!

Arn't puts a little more expensive, and represent unlimited risk if you don't actually own the goods?

nick
check yr email

Have you an account in Horsetrailyer, mate?? I'm buying puts over here. If I were in the US, I would have shorted Amazon and Yahoo just before the close last night. If there is a repeat of yesterday I would lose the lot in a day!!! My prediction--profit taking in the US tomorrow ( today ) . If you wish to invest in Oz--send me an email and I'll point you at an honest broker. Just remember why they're called 'brokers'!!

My e-mail sheesanowork, mate. Am trying to figure out why--just keep getting error messages. Haven't received anything for 24 hours.

Nick,

hopping on the put train, buddy? i've been on it for a bit now.

funny money's got some paper losses, but i've been slowly adding more to it. bought some index puts today ( volatility on these dropped way down compared to a few weeks ago... woohoo ) .

might add some more tickets on my big bank puts to catch ya, mate.


cheers.

Thanks guys, I think I got it now. There wasn't anything in the documentation about pressure, at least until I read up on hydro a little bit and saw the term "head" or "head room", that's the column of water height apparently. Makes sense now.

Morbius: Writing PUTs is a bad idea. If you're just trading, however, buying/selling them is a cash only transaction with no risk ( except the loss of the money you paid when they expire worthless, like mine look like they might here in a few months if the DOW doesn't tank ) .

Morbius
Nick is talking of Share puts that would expire worthless if out of the money, so only money at "risk" is the money you pay up front for the joyride. AKA warrants.

Butt, if you use and keep stop loss points, your risked capital is less than your stake.

And, as there is a decent level of liquidity, you don't gotta worry about liquidity risk.

BTW Nick
Can Banks in aus buy their own shares? ( It was illegal in NZ until 92 ) What about their options? I have seen share-option writers manipulate headshare price in Godzone too.

Nick
your 1:31 covered my incoming, pretty much. mum's the word, eh.

Nick@Postalconfusion
Received yours and replied

Only liable for the size of your bet with put options. It's amazing the things you can bet on, like the xau, a y2k stock index, the oils etc., in addition to individual stocks. Can get about as much leverage as you want, too. It's a casino that puts Las Vegas to shame.

Looks like some other folks on the train! I thought I was sitting all by myself back in coach. Well somebody poke the conductor and let's get this show on the road! Kick this pig into gear already, I'm tired of paper loses.

If your generator needs

36.000 Liters per second to produce the correct power, and you divide by 3.785 liters per gallon yields

9.511 US Gal / Sec. Since there are approximately

7.500 Gallons in a cubic foot, then this would work out to

1.268 Cubic Feet Per Second

If you looked at a stream

3 feet wide and

1 feet deep, it would present a

432 Square inch leading "front"

If the water were moving

5 inches per second

This would represent

2,160 cubic Inches per second. Dividing by

1,728 cubic Inches in a cubic foot we get

1.250 Cubic Feet Per Second, or just about what you need

The first question is, 1 ) Is this flow available year round

There are many 2nd questions, but this is a good start.

Thanks for that, I saved it away on disk. It's hard for me to say the anything exact as I haven't yet bought the land, getting ready to. At least now I know what to look for if I want hydro power. : )

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19981123_xex_big_brother_.shtml

Comment from Roleigh;
I find the below proposal by the FDIC to be outrageous. Under
this scheme, anyone who fears Y2K and decides to have even a
reasonable amount of cash, say 1-4 weeks of cash, could be
"fingered" by such a profiling arrangement and to invite an
unwanted visit by the authorities. We've all read in our daily
newspapers how the government can confiscate cash under the
guise of the "U.S. versus [an item of property such as cash]"
where the victim has to spend enormous amounts of legal money
to prove innocence. It seems that property is considered
guilty until proven innocent.

We should not let Y2K give the government the right to become
Big Brother.

Write the recommended address and your congressmen. A grass
roots effort is needed to put a stop to this nonsense.

-------------------------------
Resplice the url
http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=414697111&search=thread&threaded=1&CONTEXT=911890189.540082238&
HIT_CONTEXT=911890043.538968124&HIT_NUM=20&hitnum=4

On Sun, 22 Nov 1998 09:12:58, "Tom Benjamin" wrote:

Oh, yes indeed. The possible conversion of Egan very nearly overshadows the
importance of his work. Imagine this: Right now is there anyone who knows
more about the Y2K status and remediation efforts of the Fortune 500 than
Robert Egan et al? Probably not.

His report will be real Y2K news. And credible. Only Nixon could go to
China, right? Also probably a depressing report, except for the desk
thumping and hurling of papers into the air.

Tom
------------
The trick is to read the entrails and Robert has stepped up to do this
nasty job. Between his summaries and the occasional piece in the
business news, it's evident that the work has not been done and won't
be. But we knew that.

This isn't about being on the right side or wrong side of a
debate, this is not a standard usenet newgroup. We are watching the
collapse of a technological civilization. The falsehoods, hopes,
dreams, cluelessness, promises, marketing hype, none of it matters.

Does the code work? Will the code work? Can the broken code be fixed
in time?

It doesn't; it won't; and there isn't enough time left to fix the
essential systems.

Some of us believe in a few hours or couple days outage. It won't be
like that. Large systems will break and it will take years to repair or
rebuild them. Major corporations will fail.

Stating otherwise is hoping against hope.

What flows from that? Chaos or a realignment where the few functional
entities capture the marketplace?

Stay tuned, this ride will be like nothing you or I have ever imagined.
People will die, fortunes will be made, this is an adventure and in
hundred years, they will still be studing this event.

cory hamasaki 403 Days, 9,694 Hours.

Got me a Scwabb options account, so can only bet on US stock options. Most appreciative of the offer, though. Yahoo, you say. Buying puts on that really fits the Wile E. Coyote scenario: )

less interest shown by public. Gold ratio at peak above 31 and silver

very close to level where Buffett began to buy many months ago. 'nuf

said, goodnight all, and happy trading to all you metals traders.

Just remember to be quick with the in 'n out. Pretend that you're the Prezzie in the hallway with the door slightly open.

Also keep in mind the study I quoted a few weeks ago. This study was done in Oz. The BEST performers in most years are the three companies ( of the top 30 ) that GAINED the most in the previous year. If the same holds for Merka, Yahoo and Amazon should be over 400 by this time next year ( when the DOW hits 15,000 ) .

Use stop losses, mate. Even on puts. Live to put another day.

Nick@Topperformers

Nick, I don't remember the research on the top 3 out of 30 doing the best, but Peter Bernstein's "Against The Gods" quotes the reverse, when it comes to mutal funds.
One is wisest to invest in last year's WORST funds to get the BEST returns this year. Last year's best funds will return less than last year's worst this year.
In other words, history of a fund is the best contrary guideline.

Put call ratios and specialist short sales are indicating the equitiy market is in overbought territory or very close to it. The VIX - mesure of investor complacency is at 20 having ranged from 16 to 65 between the July highs and the October lows. Market could be susceptable to a good break but I have to believe the buyers will come in hot and heavy on any good 5% drop from here. That would put us down around 8850 on the DOW.

We should see the new high follow through Tuesday morning followed by the sell off - it will be interesting to see if they can close it up again, again.

Auric keep us posted with these indicators please - we may see the rare once in a life time even when they are all planstered on the ceiling, yelling sell.................and that's where I think we are headed before the equity market truely is .

This '3 best performers' was on 'individual' shares rather than funds. Maybe the worst performing fund managers--in fear for their jobs--buy what the best performers bought the previous year!!

If I ever win a Nobel prize, I'm gonna start up a fund!! It takes talent to lose hundreds of millions, but it takes absolute brilliance to lose billions!!

THE SPARK TO IGNITE REVOLUTION ---EXCLUSIVE REPORT---
by Jon Christian Ryter November 11, 1998
Author: The Baffled Christian's Handbook and soon to be released
book: Whatever Happened to America. Mr. Ryter also writes for
the Washinton Times. ( Message from Several Newsgroups )

[PLEASE NOTE: This story was written BEFORE the shots were
fired at the Federal Task force compound around 23:00 p.m. on
November 11 and put out on the morning news November 12.
The writer evidently did NOT have this information....Dot Bibee]

On October 10, 1998 the following email was sent from Andrews, NC:
"Report: We have now confirmed reports of multiple armored tanks being
brought into the Andrews area and off loaded and taken up federal
forestry
roads into the mountains. Two trucks carrying tanks were seen arriving
at approximately 11:30 pm ( 2330 hours ) Wednesday. They were said to
have pulled into the Federal Compound/Complex here in Andrews, NC.
They were gone by morning. Over the last weekend, over 21 C-130s
were seen flying over our area. We now have a report of a second federal
complex being built a short distance to the South...Photos of everything
except the tanks themselves have been taken. Their tracks, however,
have been...Roving patrols around the perimeter fence, road guards with
machine guns, and roving patrols in new Chevy Suburbans without any
license plates...It is also widely believed that the spraying of
chemicals
into the air by aircraft is occurring..."
Since that report, hundreds of similar calls and emails have poured
from Andrews in a tidal wave of concern over a virtual shockwave of
military personnel and what appears to be over a 100 federal officers
that have converged on the western North Carolina community. It was
initially believed that the military troops and the FBI had converged,
with crates of sophisticated technical equipment that would not normally
be associated with a simple "manhunt" for a man accused not only of
bombing an abortion clinic, but a virtual plethora of crimes against the
"good people" who selflessly promote abortion as a means of population
control.
Within two days, the citizens of Andrews were reporting the presence
of UN troops outside their town. Two military "bases" were indeed being
hastily constructed. Both were cordoned off; both were manned by heavily
armed guards. Within them was some of the most sophisticated sur-
veillance equipment available.
Not at all surprising was the fact that the mainstream media had not
touched the story. It did not make the 11 o'clock news. It did not make
it
onto Good Morning America or the Today Show. Geraldo did not mention
it on his late night tabloid show on CNBC; nor did John Gibson mention
it on MSNBC's popular interactive news program, Internight. Chris
Matthews did not touch it on Hardball, and neither Jay Leno nor David
Letterman opened their monologues with snippets about black helicopters
buzzing the town folks on the back roads around Andrews, or offer quips
about the true meaning of the phrase "a sleepy little southern town"
after
military helicopters spent night after night circling the town and
flooding
the homes of those trying to sleep with brilliant searchlights.
Rumors and more rumors have abounded over the past month. Everyone
is guessing, but not even the citizens of Andrews really know what is
going
on. Here, for the first time, is the story.
A well-placed Justice Department source confided to this writer
today what is happening in Andrews, and why it is happening. It is a
shocking story.
It's a story about black helicopters and conspiracy. A conspiracy
on the part of the Reno Justice Department to provoke violence in
North Carolina.
On the surface, it is a story about the efforts of the Justice Dept
to
track down and apprehend Eric Rudolph. As such, and if indeed that
was the whole story, it is newsworthy of a vast amount of media
attention. Yet, none exists. It does not exist because this is not the
part of the story that the Clinton Administration wants reported since
this is the part of the story that contains the elements of belligerent
military and federal officials bullying a town into submission. That is
not good press. It's a good news story...but, it is not the press that a
President under investigation for abuse of power would want told.
The story the media is waiting for is the first shot fired by the
North Carolina extremists at the federal government who came
to Andrews, according to the Justice Department's spinmeisters,
to find and apprehend one of the most wanted men, if not the
most wanted man, in America.
The news story will begin when open warfare between the govern-
ment and the various North Carolina militia groups begins. It will be a
conflict provoked by the Clinton Justice Department, but the first
shot will be fired by those who are currently being harassed by their
government.
Over the past few months, the media has orchestrated a well-
conceived plan to demonize Eric Rudolph. He stands accused of an
abortion clinic bombing. He may or may not be guilty of that crime.
He now stands accused of several other acts of murder and mayhem.
He may or may not be guilty of those crimes as well.
It is unlikely, however, that America will never really know since
Eric
Rudolph will never stand trial. If Eric Rudolph surrendered to those
"standing guard" over Andrews today, it is very likely that he would be
killed while resisting arrest. With all of the troops brought into the
Andrews area to apprehend him, Rudolph will not be allowed to surrender.
It is quite apparent to everyone who is watching that the United
States
Justice Dept fully intends to administer his last rites. He has been
adjudged guilty by the media; and that makes him guilty in the eyes of
the world. He is a dead man walking.
So for that matter, in the eyes of the Justice Department, has
Andrews
also been adjudged guilty. When Rudolph surfaced around Murphy, North
Carolina and borrowed a pickup truck, federal agents converged on Murphy
and nearby Andrews. However, the citizens of Murphy, like the citizens
of Andrews, were largely uncooperative with the Yankee investigators
from the North. My source admitted that "...if Eric Rudolph walked down
the main street of Andrews in the middle of the afternoon, not one person

would likely pick up the telephone and turn him in."
Is that because they agree with Rudolph's position on abortion?
Not at all. According to the Justice Dept source, most of the people
in Andrews admitted they abhorred violence of any type. Most felt if
Rudolph committed the crime, he should be arrested, tried, and in found
guilty, imprisoned---or worse. But, to a person, they distrusted the
federal government even more. To them, the federal government was the
interloper ---and more.
The investigation conducted by the FBI in both Murphy and Andrews
began with threats, bullying, and other forms of intimidation. That did
not
bode well with the good folks of Andrews. It has now evolved into the
open harassment of American citizens. The well dried up before the feds
could flush out one usable piece of information about Rudolph.
What they did flush out, however, was more militiamen than they
cared to meet on a warm, sunny fall afternoon in the Smokey Mountains.
The feds were outnumbered and outgunned. From that point on---if it ever
really was ---it was no longer about Eric Rudolph. It was about
confiscating
the weapons from what the Clinton Administration views as the most
dangerous threat to the security of the United States---a well armed
American citizen. Justice Dept data indicates that within a hundred mile
radius of Andrews, there exists more well-armed and ready to fight
militia groups than anywhere else in the United States.
Also in the Andrews area are two very large and very active Christian

groups that they feel is fanning the fire of discontent in the United
States.
As such, Andrews has been, for quite some time---and long before the
government had any interest in Rudolph---a planned target for what is
currently happening there. Andrews is, a the moment, ground zero
for the civilian uprising that the Clinton Administration hopes to
use as the catalyst to declare martial law.
Other areas in the South and the far west are undergoing troop build
ups for the same reason. The troops, however, are not exclusively
American. In Andrews, there is now a contingency of UN troops. In the
event that the efforts of the federal troops and "special agents" cannot
successfully provoke a firefight with the right wing militia groups,
attention will likely be focused in one of the other areas where UN
troops are now billeted.
If the Clinton Administration cannot provoke the militia groups
before next June, according to this Justice Department source,
they have something else in mind that will bring the Constitution
down.
In addition to some 30,000 UN troops that are now "stationed"
around the United States, it was reported that my source recently learned

that Reno's office assigned an "HRT" to Andrews. Not familiar with the
term, I inquired what an HRT was. He replied that it was a Hostage Rescue

Team. I replied that I thought it was strange that a hostage rescue unit
would be assigned to Andrews since nobody was taking hostages.
"The purpose of a hostage rescue team," he confided, "is not to
rescue
anyone. The HRT is an assassination team. Their job is to kill. It was a
HRT that did the killing at Ruby Ridge; and it was an HRT that went to
Waco. Wherever they go, people die. I don't want to see more women and
children die." ---This is an ongoing report---- --- ---more to follow---
========================
[COMMENT: I was referred to this report which is being widely circulated
on the internet newsgroups - ( most of them ) . I will be looking forward
to
hearing the "rest of the story" which includes shots being fired into the
"Federal Task Force Compound" grazing the head ( parting his hair ) of
a federal agent - and barely missing two others. I suppose that all the
media which have been "camped" in that beautiful little town for many
months now - will finally have something to write about. Channel 8
( CBS ) from Knoxville sent a reporter over there yesterday. Just keep
your eyes and ears open for the rest of the story. And Jon C. Ryter -

Dispite a stronger dollar and raging Asian markets where 2% up is a poor performance, gold is off just a dime, silver less than a cent and platinum is off only 40 cents. Bonds are down a little.

Do you suppose perhaps there is the thought creeping into the markets that maybe all this easy money may be slightly inflationary. Of course it has been in terms of paper assets - not commodities - maybe there is about to be a sharing of the wealth - watch the bonds.

"planstering" in my previous post should have read "plastered" - when the contrary opinion indexes are all plastered on their respective chart cielings, may be then it'll be time to sell the S&P - we have a little ways to go yet - in my very humble opinion, and i think we are going to get there.

Guess we can look forward to another rate cut from the Fed. : )

Man, it looks like the UK is going to get the holy crap kicked out
of it judging by their rate inversion. : )

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1123/web-horn-11-23-98.html

Another "D" report.
Interesting that only one sector slipped.
DOD or will it be DOA

Mo's 02;33
Kinda make you pine for the Land of the Free, eh? Best darned country on earth. No mistake.
Everywhere else are just socialists..

Nick@Nobelaureator
Would you belong to any fund that would have you as a member? Between these two views, Bernstein's & the 3 in 30, we see the makings of a market, yes?

Buyers need sellers, and wine needs cellars.

-------

Another day over. Objectives fulfilled. Deadlines met. Pigs fed and ready for take off.

zzzzzzzzzzzoooooooooommmmmmmm

jims-- thanks, that's a fine website, eh. Here is the URL for those who wish to book mark-- http://www.marketgauge.com/charttoc.htm Nick-- Sending bill for keyboard after Prezzie remark!

Everywhere are socialists. National Socialists. Corporatism Socialists. Maxist-Leninist Socialists. Christian Socialists. Democratic Socialists. Third Way Socialists. Fabian Socialists. Ad Infinitum.

Yair, mate. If you lived in 'The Land of the Free' you could have their jackbooted gubbmint officials. I was once vising Parliament House in Canabeera, and while I stood on the steps the Prime Minister and a foreign leader walked by within a few feet of me. No guards!! The PM put the dignitary into a fancy car and then walked back up the steps, saying hello to everyone he passed.

Mind you, this was in the seventies and the world is now a very different place. Still, I think fondly of that moment and pine for the world that was.

I, too, pine for that kinder, gentler time. BTW, could one of you mates jog on over to Alice Springs and report back what horrible deeds are transpiring in the big undeground there ?

I will be in Alice Springs mid next year. Underground?? I know that your benevolent gubbmint has got several above ground facilities spread around Oz ( ostensibly satellite tracking etc. but in reality submarine spotters and eavesdroppers on Asia etc. ) . Are they storing goodies 'underdround' here as well??

The head of the Executive Office for Asset
Forfeiture is under investigation. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncssun03.htm

Here it is.

Wednesday, November 11, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 0.8690 Platinum ( oz. )

On Wednesday, November 11, 1998
1 Silver ( oz. ) =0.01715 Gold ( oz. )

On Wednesday, November 11, 1998
1 Silver ( oz. ) = 0.01488 Platinum ( oz. )

Wednesday 11/11/98
( 1 )
CNY XPT-XAU=383.260
CNY $ DIFF= $46.298
CNY XAU/XPT = 0.863863
CNY XAG/XAU = 0.017120
CNY XAG/XPT = 0.014790

( 2 )
DEM XPT-XAU=77.900
DEM $ DIFF= $46.304
DEM XAU/XPT = 0.863863
DEM XAG/XAU = 0.017121
DEM XAG/XPT = 0.014790

( 3 )
XEU XPT-XAU = 39.610
XEU $ DIFF = $46.340
XEU XAU/XPT = 0.863863
XEU XAG/XAU = 0.17121
XEU XAG/XPT = 0.014790

( 4 )
USD XPT-XAU = 46.300
USD = $46.300
USD XAU/XPT = 0.863864
USD XAG/XAU = 0.017120
USD XAG/XPT = 0.014790

( 5 )
JPY XPT-XAU = 5637.1
JPY $ DIFF = $46.303
JPY XAU/XPT = 0.863862
JPY XAG/XAU = 0.0171205
JPY XAG/XPT = 0.0147898

It requires complete suspension of disbelief to accept that a veritable host of proprietary algorithms would bring competing finWhizzes to the same neat resolution. And do it day after day, week after week, month after month.

Re-Platinum: 6. There are no large above ground inventories of platinum. Above ground gold stocks total approximately two billion ounces in bullion and coinage form, including more than 800 million ounces held by private investors and more than 1.1 billion ounces held by central banks and other government authorities. http://www.cpmgroup.com/whyplatinum.html

Nick
Is mozel, ahhme, pining for Pine Gap? The ears of merka? I believe it is American sovereign territory and no aussie is welcome.

Reportedly private. How can USG have sovereign territory on Aussie territory ? Or are you blokes the AntiPodean Version of British North America ?

Oh dearie me, ahhme = ahhemm

If memory serves me correctly we have taken it back. At least on the surface. Aussie commander who can't walk into every room in his own facility. Not sure though. Will require non-gold research.

I am quite content to have Yanks on Aussie soil. We sure as hell ain't gonna beat off a determined attack on our lonesome!! How big is the Noo Sealand army and how many commandos would I need to take the whole shebang?? Couple dozen??

What ya'll neeed to be Independent is some good old WMD.

Certain 'facilities' on Aussie soil were 'considered' Merkan territory for security reasons. In other words--the stuff there was so top secret--there was no way us colonials were gonna get access to it. The conservative Aussie gubbmints of the past kissed-ass big-time with the Yanks as they figured it was a cheap way of defending the country. Just like Japan. Let Merka pay for their defense. We ain't stupid!! You Merkans are welcome to spend your defense $$ over here!! Just don't mess with our women!!

mozel
Every embassy of a foreign nation is exempt from the jurisdiction of its locale. By subterfuge, fear and lies, the US gobmint made Pine Gap and ( you know, I can't remember the NZ installation!!~~Winston Smith is my name~~OTOH it is late here ) its NZ sister site US territory. Yup. Like Yap. Yup. US territory. And the US has occupational forces in Hawaii, and Texas come to thing of it.
Then there's S Korea, Germany, Japan, Kuwait, hmmmm The US has armies of occupation, eh? And, trouble at home? Uh oh...Now, what was the last army of occupation that used an Eagle as its conquering symbol? An' it weren't Mexico, and it weren't Rome...

When the Eagle flies
with the dove...

Yep. The Sun Never Sets on our green printed paper.

Seriously, if my grandchildren are free at the age of discretion, it will be by Providence.

Nick
The best defended place in NZ is the least hospitable. Conquest would not be impossible, just untenable. The spirit of the people is indomitable, mate. Specialists in collective mayhem, the kiwi, ha ha ha ha..

Happy Trails ands Trades. BBML.

For Monday 23 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR--------------5.03--------------5.25-------------5.12-----------------5.09

Mean GoldLR------4.19---------------4.17-------------3.82-----------------3.51
Gold Lease Rate---0.84---------------1.08-------------1.30-----------------1.58
( Change ) ----- ( - 0.31 ) ------- ( - 0.12 ) ------ ( - 0.11 ) ----------- ( - 0.05 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.35--------------3.50-------------2.70-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.68--------------1.75--------------2.42-----------------2.69
( Change ) -------- ( - 0.25 ) -------- ( - 0.16 ) ------- ( - 0.07 ) ---------- ( 0.00 )
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am

Romans??

SDR - would you care to tell those of us paying less than total attention what all those numbers are about in yuour recent post. ?

There may be no above ground supplies of PT and PD but there seems to be much paper to sell in PD, tonght. From $310 back to $270 or less in three days.. Last week we looked to be set on a major up move - now look out below - $250. Man!!! Boy somebody really unloaded into that rally in both PD and PT. JUst what we continue to see: rallies can not be maintained - there is too much deflationary bearish preasure.

THC my source ( spoken about 24 hours ago ) was reluctant to share his projections for PD. I'm not a paying customer of his, just one who once befriended him and hence I get tidbits from time to time. Once he had the position on in PD he is planning for his closed ring of clients, he'd let me know, he said. Not in yet. He suggested buying SWC on any two day decline into the 32-33 3/4 range, however.

later

Pine Gap is where Australia's version of Eschalon is installed.
Aussie aren't welcome.
Nor is anyone else without the necessary credentials.

-------------
Auric
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Market_Gauge_Charts.htm
Loads all the Market Gauge charts if you wait a minute or two.
It's linked on my main page.

Nick@fourohsixGOOSE_STEPPING
guess again

away to count frying pigs

nytolTeddo

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncssun03.htm

mozel
We must ensure that providence sees our grandchildren be free at the age of discretion.
Action is required. We act, so providence provides.

Aye.

Yeah, them Nazis used an eagle, didn't they??

Nick@takesthecake

Yeah, it was the Nazis, as your prize, allow me to present a little plagiarised essay I call, "All the Presidents GIrls" I've been looking for an opportunity to post it, can't think if it relates to a certain President of an Eagle Imperial Nation or not right now, but here goes:


---------------------

Hitler started his romantic career with a neurotic fear of syphilis which resulted in chronic impotency during his youthful years....He had no lovers at all during his boyhood...In 1921, aged 32, he acquired his first girlfriend, Suzi Liptauer... ( she was the first of many identikit ladies --all blond, all athletic, and all half his age ) ... after a single night of physical interaction she hanged herself and Hitler withdrew from the sexual battleground for seven years.

In 1928 ( aged 39 ) Hitler began a 2 year love affair with Maria Reiter ( aged 16 ) . He dumped her and she hanged herself from a clotheslind attached to a door-handle in the family home.

His libido picks up:
In 1929 ( aged 40 ) his niece, Geli Rambal ( aged 19 ) was encouraged to live with him in his flat in Vienna. Being locked up all day by her uncle, being forced to have sex at will, and having her every move guarded by the Gestapo was not Gelis idea of teenage romance. She tried to leave the flat, and, she accidentally died in the process.

Hitler, though lovelorn, immediately found a new girl friend, Martha Dodd ( Daughter of William Dodd the US Ambassador to Berlin ) ..Hitler was keen on her for a while.....he threw her out when he found out that William Dodd used to teach history at the University of Chicago ( which had a reputation as a hotbed of communism ) . She slit her wrists, not fatal. She was relieved of her US passport and disappeared behind the iron curtain.

Goebbels decided to chose Hitlers next girlfriend, he chose Renate Muller, a German beauty and film star. She wasnt very keen on the plan, but with the assitance of diamonds and furs, Renate got the idea. Before anything really happened Renate legged it out of Germany with a Jewish businessman she had fallen in love with. They were caught at the border and send back to Berlin. Renate was forced to whip her boyfriend to death before falling, quite by accident, out of a third-floor window to her own death.

Then Unity Mitford ( daft daughter of Churchills friend, Lord Redesdale ) fell in love with Hitler. When she returned to England she greeted her friends with the endearing Heil Hitler and did the Nazi salute, she wore a Swastika constantly. She returned to Germany in 1939. On 3 September war was declared, she realised she had been duped and made a laughing stock. She went into a governement building and demanded to see her boyfriend she was told to leave the country immediately, went outside the building and shot herself. She survived, giving herself crippling brain damage. She was shipped back to England and confined to prison as a seditious war criminal, where she died.

1943 Hitler picks up Inge Ley for refreshment purposes, but immediately post-coital she took the rather drastic, but by this stage, predictable step of jumping out the bedroom window to her death.

Eva Braun was besoted by Hitler for 17 years she constantly wrote in her diary Dear God, Please make it possible to let me see him today, . It wasnt always possible of course, since he was often engaged in alternative sexual acts or, occasionally, genocide. She attempted suicide twice and was finally successful swallowing a cyanide capsule in the bunker beside the man who never acknowledged that she lived.

Two hours later, Magda Goebbels, the wife of Joe, poisoned herself and her six children. She could never be happy without Hitler.

bearbonz . .
Seriously this market is very scary. Sometimes I wish I was dumb enough to
buy this insanity and get rich but I know the music is going to stop someday
and I want to have a seat. All the bears who say "I hope I'm wrong..."
better start hoping they are right, because the higher this thing goes, the
worse the ending is going to be. Maybe that gary north is right, even if it
is the first time, because this is going to end in disaster, and the y2k
scenario he envisions just might be explained as the "reason" for the
carnage. "Everything was fine until that darn millenium bug hit us."

--------------------
BTW, I was at local brokerage offices again and met an investor who has
taken out home equity line of credit to buy stocks ( home values increased
over 30% in Silicon Valley this year ) . He used up over 6 figure of credit
during last 3 months to purchase various chip maker stocks and was very
happy with the result so far. I believe this qualifies as an act of wanton
speculation and is another market top indicator. Aside from him, others were
all pleased with today's market action; one investor, presumably TA type,
told me today's all time high breaks the "head and shoulder" pattern and is
a beginning of another bull run; I didn't ask what the "head and shoulder
pattern" is but he definitely should have used the shampoo. I still did not
see complete euphoria there since many of them are planning to sell all they
have when DOW hits 10000. I did ask why is the number 10000 so special but
all I got back was sort of a blank stare.

If the Dec S&P hits 1240 anytime in the next 3 trading days sell it for at least a short term trade.

to all ..
1. the gold price in dmarks and swiss has broken through the
overhead at 500 and 410 respectively ..

2. heard on telly last night that the ECB and the various
new euro left wing leaders were set to clash over
monetary policy .. the politicians want job creation
via money growth .. the CB want a strong Euro .. As
bad as US politicians are .. and they are awful .. they
are better than European Politicians .. Europeans never
tasted freedom however briefly .. they went straight
from the age of Kings to age of socialist Royalty.

3. Racist event in Scotland .. Scotish rugby board apologizes
to RSA for recent unfortunate event in pub when the
RSA squad was asked to leave because two "kaffirs" were
with them .. Didnt realize that "kaffir" was a Scots
word. Found this even more surprising since Winnie Mandela
was so popular during sanctions days that a Scots street
was renamed after her .. Perhaps I should consider
mounting a sanctions campaign against the Scots ..
... picture this .. Afrikaans speaking Honiball springing
to aid of Black buddies to fend off attacks from racist
Scots.. things change ..

and Mozel's 02:33 is to say the least alarming. Is this a factual statement or just fiction? Is my government trying to start a war with it's very own citizens?

Mozel sir, is this true? Anyone?

for RJ ..
Early monday morning you posted the following after what
appears to have been a tough night ..
Date: Mon Nov 23 1998 03:22

"...............
The white metals are fine.
Gold will fall

Yes "

Friday night gold had closed about 295.25, Plats 357.5,
and Palladium at 298 ..

... but gold has held up okay at 295 plus .. platinum is
off 7 bucks and Palladium had tumbled 25 $... I guess
it depends on what you mean by "fine"
... get some rest ..

gee you aussies make us yanks laugh..........you guys been dreamin
about lassiters reef for too long...........we god damn stuck our
weapons facility right over the top of it.............yehhhhhh and we
also bury our radioactive waste there....we got the game stitched
I respect my ancestors.

Yee, you Yanks make me laugh, you certainly have the game stiched...

It's called the US National Debt....

blackmail is not a very positive practice, so lets let the
3rd world off the debt hook and get the US to repay the world
for all the control freak damage that is going on.
Gold....a...a...hmmmmmmm...ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
looks scary, is Normandy forming the right shoulder on an inverted
head and shoulders ....it shows more potential than lihir at the
moment...I feel 325 is out there and not worth contemplating

Hi Jim!

Thank you very much for sharing your info regarding Pd. Pls provide updates when possible!

I agree.....somebody hit Pd hard....."Who Shot P.D.?"

Rumors that the Russians will ship, etc..... ( any details out there? )

I stopped out.....ouch......

Pt looks much more firm.....still holding Pt.

I looked up the changes in backwardation in Tokyo Pd. The figures are based on this month's contract minus the furthest future contract ( yen/gram ) .

96
Feb -4 yen
May -2
Aug +2
Nov -1

97
Feb +2
May +31
Aug +160
Nov +95

98
Feb +65
May +500 ( !!!! )
Jun +350
Jul +220
Aug +85
Sep +110
Oct +100
Nov +100


The backwardation bottomed at about 60 yen/gram in early November 98.

Any comments???

RJ??

JD??

TIA

THC

If your country's fiat monetary system collapses or becomes unstable and the POG soars while you're heavily invested in physical Au, what do yo do with your gold in the short run, a time when the average merchant would not be familiar with gold as a basis for barter?

Do you sell your gold for truckloads of the worthless currency? You can't take the Maple Leafs you have stuffed up your chimney to the grocery store and buy crackers and tampons with them. At most, the store manager would probably offer you credit in the amount of the face value of the gold coins which would be absurd.

They are always about to ship - let'em ship. If supply demand is out of balance with their being more demand than supply, shipments at lower prices will only encourage consumption while the Russian stockpiles and the Mafia controled hordes are sold off. This PD market all seems to be about buying the bad news.

Important note that John Disney made that the price of gold in DMs has gotten over 500. Important point and fiqure resistance. While my model t computer can't get the EURO/GOld chart anymore I suppose that the downtrend line of the wedge has been broken.

Gold down 40 cents - if it could get up again today I'd be impressed.

"No, no, Monika, down girl. This is a different kind of head."

Volume of water is important but one has to have head. In fact, one has to have "total dynamic head". That is to say, the head at the output of the penstock under full flow conditions. A creek of such and such a flow rate will not do the job unless the inlet to the penstock is high enough above the outlet to provide the total dynamic head required to give the flow desired.

If memory serves, static head for fresh water is .433 pounds per square inch per foot of head. That should be looked up, of course, before designing. From this figure must be deducted all losses from flow at the output. The advantage conferred by a large diameter penstock is obvious.

Great care must be taken in controlling the water column in the penstock. Its mass is easy to calculate and will amount to some tons of water for a largish diameter. Water is not compressible and an attempt to stop this water column abruptly leads to immediate disaster. Read about bypasses to the tailrace and slow and careful valve manipulation.

It is important to understand, of course, that the installation is just being put in for the fellows on motorcycles who arrive at 2 a.m. to find out why you are doing well and to take what ever that is away from you.

People will be marked who have the bumper sticker: "I read Kitco; the three precious metals are gold, silver and lead."

you wrote:

Do you sell your gold for truckloads of the worthless currency? You can't take the Maple Leafs you

have stuffed up your chimney to the grocery store and buy crackers and tampons with them. At

most, the store manager would probably offer you credit in the amount of the face value of the gold

coins which would be absurd.

Well you would still have some cash wouldn't you? If the store manager dosn't think it's worthless, give it to him!

For years I have been amazed that people will give me stuff for US Dollars. I hope they never wise up, it would be very bad...

Anyhow, I don't think of gold as being used for exchange. I have a very small amount by kitco standards, but I expect that my sons shall be heirs to all the gold I ever accumulate.

as for merchants,

...they can have my gold when they pry it from my cold dead... well, they can have it when I need something to continue living, and I have NO other way to pay.

I got my Zanotti assemble-it-yourself gunsafe ( 600 lbs empty )
for my gun and coin storage about a week ago. Had some trouble putting
it together but a few heavy hammer strokes got it together.
I feel like i am more Y2K compliant now but I am still a city
dweller with total dependence on outside water and electricity
( except for my stores of course ) .

Got God, guns, gold, grub, generators?

That is call.

http://www.hotcoco.com/news/eastbay/east/stories/cng40066.htm

"We absolutely don't want anything to disrupt the banks," he stressed.

"If we can't do wire transfers, if we can't process checks, if we can't open our vault doors, if we can't issue loans  it would basically stop business as a whole," said Becky Manning, vice president and director of marketing/business development for East County Bank.

------
U.S. bankers seek to calm Year 2000 consumer fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981120/80.html
WASHINGTON, Nov 20 ( Reuters ) - Should you withdraw all your money from the bank late next year because of the Year 2000 computer problem?

Banking industry representatives told reporters Friday that massive withdrawals would be ``foolish,'' citing the risk of theft, fire and the interest earnings foregone.

``No one is suggesting there won't be sporadic problems, but they will be isolated,''

``The safest place for your money is in the bank,'' said ABA spokesman John Hall.

``It would be inordinately foolish for anybody to come into the institution and withdraw every penny and walk down the street and take the risk of getting mugged,'' added Brian Smith, of the America's Community Bankers trade association.

``Criminals have their own Y2K contingency plans and senior citizens are particularly vulnerable,''

http://www.epa.gov/year2000/ow.htm
EPA Info

http://www.utne.com/y2k/act.html

Nothing beats gold?

http://oposite.stsci.edu/pubinfo/pr/1998/41/content/9841aw.gif

off .31% from yesterday. One year leased gold is 1.58% Cheap.

But look at silver. It's one month lease rate is under gold's @ .68%.
One year leases on silver are 2.69%.

The spread between one month and one year gold is only .74% while
the spread between one month and one year silver is 2.01%.

There are two possible interpretations:

Demand for one month silver leases has dropped because we are in
a deflationary event and the bottom is about to fall out of silver

or

demand for one month silver has dropped because no speculator in his
right mind would short silver at these spot prices. If lease rates
can be manipulated, then the powers that be are dropping leases to
try to keep the lid on POS.

I personally lean toward the latter interpretation, and will speculate
that something dramatic is about to happen to POS. IMHO

The spread between one month and one year silver leases is anomalous!

Thanks again.........I agree......from a FA standpoint the "Russians are shipping" does nothing to increase total world inventory levels...it just moves a portion of it to the customers.......where it will be CONSUMED AND REMOVED FOREVER FROM THE WORLD INVENTORY.

But I really would like to know how much they have left and how much they product each year.......

Has Pd found a bottom? The $270 resistance area has held for a while....perhaps it will hold this time unless something really has changed........perhaps RJ can enlighten us?

Good night,

THC

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qd3352.htm

Does anyone have any experience in taking physical delivery of Ag on the Comex? The questions which I have, and which my broker has little knowledge or inclination about ( I live in Asia and choices are limited ) are:

- What are typical storage costs if I leave it in a depository?

- What are typical assay costs if I take physical delivery in the US and later wish to sell?

- What are the dimensions of 10k ozs of ag?

My broker phoned today to say that I had to make a decision on delivery this week for the December contract, ending with the comment "of course, you'd never want to do that".

I think that it is high time we DID THAT and took the metal paper shorts to the furnace, melted their skulls, and converted them into cheap paperweights ( I claim first dabs on those of Bill and Ted ) .

Not to be vengeful or anything.

arnold, not butler!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981124/gx.html

The paper bull cannot last long once commodity prices pick up strongly, bonds tank, and the dollar heads south in a big way. No sign of this yet, but next spring could be very different. Market is grossly overbought and is due for a sharp correction soon. But the bullish underpinnings will remain intact until fears of deflation are replaced by fears of inflation.

Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach reports that China's "best and brightest" are very concerned about the US equity bubble:


In my discussions with SAFE, we spent considerable time probing the perils in the broader global
landscape. Not surprisingly, Brazil and Japan were at the top of their worry list. But next in line was
the United States and the reemergence of a worrisome equity bubble. Like me, the Chinese are
particularly concerned about the linkage between America's seemingly reckless personal saving
behavior and a surging stock market. For a nation with a 40% saving rate, China views the now
negative saving rate in the US with shock and dismay. In their view, this is a clear and urgent sign of a
new vulnerability. They fear that it is now only a matter of time before an equity shock ushers in a long
overdue retrenchment of the increasingly wealth-dependent American consumer.

Jim - I saw your comment earlier about the Euro/gold chart. Didn't you get the chart I sent you the other day, which shows the breakout?

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnLO9ub8Ztdi0mty4mJm&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_220000/220606.stm

Well, I was busy yesterday and couldn't keep an eye on things and I see you guys have let the DOW get completely out of hand.

I'll have to fix that.

Globex slightly down, bonds slightly down, dollar up, Precious metals mixed, oil mixed.

Looks calm, doesn't it?

A great day for pulling levers.

any comments on the comparative merits of credit suisse vs. golden eagles, krugerrands, Maple leafs etc. please. My gold is presently in a Paper Gold account in Hongkong Bank and I'll feel safer with physical.

You will never know exactly how much palladium Russians
have and how much they can produce, this info, as Americans
say, is "classified" to the extreme...On the other hand,
it may be interesting for you to find out the cost of
producing palladium in Russia. This is also "classified",
but in comparison with the price of gold or platinum mining
it is dirt cheap...At whatever price they sell it, it's
going be profitable for them...People who play with palladium
are going to get burned real bad some day, same as happened
with Russian stocks/bonds "specialists"...

http://www.zolatimes.com/v2.39/eye.html

great bear article


btw, gollum -- pull all the levers you want. may i suggest the ones on overvalued internet tulip stocks first ( though if you do, i'd wish you'd give me time to buy puts on those first...:- )

I think I'll start by running gold up to about 298 or so...

I was thinking of hitting those the day after Thansgiving, that would make for a lot of "bloated turkey" puns and jokes.

Please hold off those levers for about 3 days. I'm opening an options account to buy a bucket load of Calls and haven't placed my bets yet.

And now it's DOW UP,GOLD UP....The China Story, Russia story. etc. And the European markets are getting cold feet today. ( profit taking... )

I'm actually getting "worried" it's about to EXPLODE - just as I'm handing my money over to the croupier....

So leave the "Lever Pulling" til after thanksgiving if you please !

In the FWIW column, Jim Dines made a mistake on the NBR program when he recommended an Internet stock, INTAF for INTF, or vice versa. The point being that these are two very sleepy stocks. One had an average daily volume ( 3 month ) of 9000+ shares a day. Both stocks did over 1,000,000 shares yesterday! Internet Mania anyone? I have some Tulips for sale....

Regarding the 'New Records' set by the Dow and S&P, it looks like a blow-off move to me. The reason? Look at the volume and price action. The prices have been sky rocketing as volume remains the same or contracts on the way up. This is not the stuff of healthy markets. When the 'correction' comes it will be sharp and swift. I do not claim to have any knowledge as to when this will happen, but as a rule of thumb, markets decline about twice as fast as they rise. Does this mean the Bull is dead? Don't know. Want some free advice? Play it minute by minute...

Just about everyone is aware the tulip bulb stocks are way overvalued, but they also see the prices going up. Every gunslinger who thinks he's fastest on the draw is going for the show down.

Each steely eye looking for one of the others to blink first...

I be here, mon
I and I be good belly
No screw face here, mon
Evryting irie under de sun

Translation:
Feeling pretty good after a week in Jamaica

Yeah, mon

PS to EB bredda -

Jamaican Blue Coffee
Brought back two pounds
One is yours, yes?

Yes

OK, I'll hold the really heavy duty lever pulling in abeyance for next week.

Maybe just a few little test tugs here and there to make sure everything is still working.

When bubbles burst is Europe or USA historically the lead indicator. Ditto gold bull markets. WHere do they start on the sentiment change day ? Anybody got the data ?

The recent run up in palladium was entirely the result of short covering by the Russians. This comes from a good source in the pits.

This begs the question:

Why would the Russians cover at losses rather than deliver palladium against the contracts?

Could it be they do not have the metal to deliver?

Could be

Yeah, mon

I have been told that bars even from credite suisse have to be assayed before sold, this would add to your cost of disposal, I preffer Maple Leafs or American Eagles for that reason, no problem selling off.Hope this helps.

spot 4.96 -vs- futures at 4.90...??? Last time this happened silver ZOOMED!!

Yes sir, swift and hard.

It takes a while to get into the eye of the storm, with increased buffeting and chaos until suddenly one breaks into the clear.

The eye is beautiful. Fresh storm stirred air, bright sunshine, blue sky. The bigger the storm, the bigger the eye.

This one looks to be about three or four months wide.

When one leaves the eye, one hits "the wall" hard and quick. One moment it seems like good times are back forever, and the next the sky is as black as midnight and the wind and rain come in horizontally like a speeding bullet train.

There will be little warning.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981123/mi_interfa_1.html

INTAF average daily volume, 109,454. INTF average daily volume, 9,500.

Yesterdays trading;

INTAF 1,903,300 shares with 1332 trades, price up 19/32 or 20.4%

INTF 1,383,100 shares with 1668 trades, price up 15/16 or 30.6%

Yes, manias are us...........:- ) )

No. Not even a little tug IF YOU PLEASE.
Not today.
Not now.
Not if you're familiar with Chaos theory -
Butterflies and Hurricanes. That's a thought - maybe you've been tugging those levers TOO HARD. And what's needed is just a little tug. Perhaps just a little lever tickle perhaps. Then Boom !

Next week. OK ! : )

I'm Sooooooo close to getting this account up and running - sitting here in Thailand it's been a hassle getting things squared away. I beg you.

Thanks for the info.

the weird turn pro ..

Hunter S Thompson

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/clueless.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

HST, yes?

I knew there was a reason I liked you
HST, I believe, Is the clearest
And most honest writer of our generation

Selah

I turn again to purity ..

Genghis Khan

1221

For once, the 'Clueless Investor' column is aptly named. The comments made are mostly about the 'net stocks, but there is also concern for the overall market. Comparisons are made to todays market and the previous 'top' made during the summer. Internet stocks going up $20 -$40 a day? The Internet index up 100% from the recent lows? I thought only gold stocks did this. :- ) )

I sure hope that those who are trading these things have a real good 'connection' to the trading floor..... I think they're going to need it at some point, and soon.

RJ
When we need him

With Amazon up 18% yesterday, they've done the year in a day. Smart money will be getting out with as much intact as they can.

Today is the day to do it as the sheeple come running in.

Morning!

RJ, thanks for the info.....what is your take on Pd prices over the next year or two? If the Russians don't have the metal...then no one will get it......and then the price will go.....???

Oris, thanks for the feedback.....interesting food for thought......if Pd mining in Russia is very cheap and if one could safely invest huge sums of money based on a long-term business plan, then perhaps that would serve to bring the price down by bringing enough Pd to market....

But short term:
*Do catalyst manufacturers have enough Pd in stock to tide them over until someone decides to invest millions in Russia to take advantage of the cheap mining costs?
*Is there anyone right now who is ready to invest huge sums of money in Russian mining?

If the answer to the above 2 questions is NO, then wouldn't Pd prices ( for the short-term at least ) primarily be determined by the amount of available above ground Pd and the demand from industry?

Thanks,

THC

it ain't so esoteric. Listen to Retired Soldier and just buy bullion coins - 24K .999's. In my opinion, Maple Leafs are nice, so are China Pandas. However, the coin with the highest "face" value is the Austrian Philharmonic. It is also 24K and kind of nice, but if you ask me, the Maple Leaf is just a nice piece of gold. I don't like the color of any coin mixed with an alloy. If you're buying gold, get gold.
So Eagles and Krands are out, unless you just want to have a couple to see what they look like. If you want to see a really beautiful coin design, buy a few Mexican 20 pesos. They are 1/2 0z and 22K, but they have the Mayan Sun Calendar on the back in incredible detail, and the Mexican eagle with a serpent ij its talons on the front. Muy Escorpio!

In the end tho, it's all academic. It matters little what you own when that net 1 oz of goldin your coin, alloyed or not, is worth $2400. What's a few bucks either way? That's what you have to keep in mind.

long time no see. Glad you enjoyed Jamaica! You look very tanned and rested. ( ;- )

Now it's off to the office. Great Day all, enjoy the raging bull! It's time to ditch those blue chips and buy trash!

The full teachings ! Thanks.

Don't wait for some "thing" to look like a previous market, or you could be caught in the downdraft. This is more than any bear could expect to see with respect to sentiment extremes. The fact that no one is SCREAMING, ...... "SEEEELLLLLLLLLLLL", except ME, makes me feel very confident that I'm not wrong. We all spent a lot of time talking about bubbles during the decline from the July high. What has changed?
I'll tell you what, the market has done it's best to confound us all. It had to do whatever it could to convince the majority that, "don't fear the market getting clipped, Always buy the Dip"
Does anyone want to buy some stock im my new company? It's going to be in the internet business. Hmmmmmmmmm!

Herds of sheeple, cash in hand, pressing up against the gate. A few more minutes and the leaders will come running down the chute...

Careful there! Amazon.com is one of them there 'Blue Chip' Internet stocks. :- ) )

Just like AOL, NSCP.... Oh! That's right. AOL just bought NSCP in a stock swap. Something like a $4.2 BILLION dollar valuation put on NSCP. What a concept! Don't use cash, use stock as money to buy Internet companies... I'll have to think about that... :- ) ) Tulips, yah, that's the ticket....

What if a stock drops 50% after a run-up of 100%. the return is still better than my gold over the last few years. ( devil's advocate view! )

er...oh...nevermind...

Depends upon whether you were one of the sheeple who came running in after the 100% run up or not.

Just in case it's a slow morning for gold, here are some interesting stories.

Does anyone see anything wrong with this picture? No? I thought so. It must be me.

U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Reach Record High

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981124/bs/bankruptcy_2.html

Deere Reports Lower Fourth Quarter Net, Trouble Ahead

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981124/bs/deere_1.html

U.S. Economy Grew Faster Than Thought In Q3

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981124/bs/gdp_2.html

Tobacco Companies Impose Biggest-Ever Price Hike

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981124/bs/tobaccoprice_3.html

'breadth was tremendous' ?

Profit-Taking Expected On Wall Street

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981124/bs/stocks_884.html

Carl - I would bet there are some very interesting Star Wars going on in that very 'busy' quadrant! BTW - What are you doing posting that NASA disinformation propaganda here? There are no such things as galaxies anyway - its all a hoax! ;- ) ( Except of course those great cars my father used to drive in the '60's. )

The issue that no one ever seems to address, is the liquidity issue. Many of those Internet plays are going up precisely because there are so few shares available and so many buyers. Now, what happens when the train gets put in to reverse? As Homer Simpson would say, "DOOOOOOOOOH!" :- (

Lots of sellers and no buyers = a very bad day..... It's happened to me in gold shares.....

move 77.4 to 77.5

That's why I prefer to dabble in the spot currencies - liquidity is thinner than usual but still more reasonable than stocks.

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/an/bussit/chart3.gif

By now, perhaps at least some of those billions of sentient beings out there have learned how to live the good life without inflicting misery on others.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation index is now declining at a moderate pace. This tells us that all is not well with breadth. It must turn up before any good move in the gold shares will occur. Not yet.

The new lows on Toronto Mining Issues have been increasing. New lows exceeded the benchmark 5 issues or less on 4 of the last 10 days. This may be a result of year-end tax loss selling as the issues hitting new lows are the lowest of the low ( woof-woof ) . Nevertheless, this is negative.

The 220 day MA for gold is 294.92 and rising as of yesterday. This is good. The 200 day MA for Toronto golds ( ^tgl on Yahoo ) is at 6356 and is rising too. More good news.

The major trendline for Toronto golds that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is now at 5360 for this week. The index closed at 6881 yesterday.

I want to see gold and the Toronto gold index hold above their 220/200 day moving averages. Otherwise, I will sell some of my shares. Meanwhile the indicators are still mixed.

I am sorry for the tone of my last email. but you hit a raw nerve. I admit I made a mistake sending you a copy of that article by John Dizard. I was foolishly trying to make myself look wiser and more sophisticated than I have been. I know you love me and you mean well. Yes, I HAVE gambled in the past, but collecting coins is NOT gambling. I am not leveraged in gold and I am not trading in and out; THAT would be gambling or speculation.You are absolutely correct- in the last 18 years gold has been a poor investment. In my lifetime and yours, 18 years may seem like a long time, but in the history of human beings, it is the merest blip on the radar screen. Gold was one of the first metals known to humans and has been a symbol of wealth for thousands of years. All you have to do is look in the Torah, Koran, or Christian Bible for references to the preciousness of gold. Gold is so pure that it won't rust or tarnish. Its worth is recognized throughout the civilized world. All the gold that has ever been so far discovered on Earth could fit in a small warehouse the size of a high school gym. Many words and phrases in the English language come from the word *gold* and gold's value; i.e.- "the gold standard," "sitting on a gold mine," "go for the gold," "All that glitters is not gold," "golden rule," "worth it's weight in gold," and "the Golden Age." I am only 48 years old and I intend to hold onto my gold for the next 20-30 years. Do you remember Linus from "Peanuts"? Gold is my "blankie." Please have some respect for my way of saving for the future; it is an ancient and time-honored way to save, although currently in disrepute in America. These are not normal times; we are in another age of the South Sea Bubble and tulipmania. The masses of United States citizens are mesmerized by the seemingly endless rise in stocks. There is no respect for gold because it just sits at under $300/ounce and does not skyrocket in value as internet stocks have. Mssrs. Rubin and Greenspan know that the US currency, federal reserve notes ( FRNs ) are little pieces of paper with numbers printed on them that are not backed by anything, and can only be redeemed for real and tangible goods and services as long as there is confidence in the system. They know the economy is almost solely driven now because people are only willing to spend because they think they have value and equity in their stocks and mutual funds. The actual savings rate in the U.S. is *negative*; people are spending more than they earn; they think they are rich because the stock market is going up. The government has encouraged this behavior with irresponsible monetary policy, because they fear the inevitable crash of the economy when people realize the truth, that the FRNs are just little pieces of paper, that they have no savings, and that they are spending money they really cannot afford to spend. These people are sheep; many of the stocks they buy have no real earnings, do not pay dividends, and in some cases have never earned a cent. THESE are the gamblers, looking for a greater fool to bail them out of a worthless investment at a higher price. This cannot go on forever. The business cycle has NOT been repealed. If the Year 2000 problem does not burst this bubble, then something else will. When the smoke clears, I will still have my gold and silver, and it will be worth something to somebody. Love, Richard

Ran across these while researching TVX vs. RANDGOLD.

RESERVES:
that part of a mineral deposit which could be economically and legally extracted or produced at the time of the reserve determination. Reserves are customarily stated in terms of ore when dealing with metalliferous minerals. There are three categories of reserves:
Proven ore  material for which tonnage and grade are computed from dimensions revealed in outcrops, trenches, underground workings or drill holes; grade is computed from the results of adequate sampling; and the sites for inspection, sampling and measurement are so spaced and the geological character so well-defined that size, shape and mineral content are established.

Probable ore  material for which tonnage and grade are computed partly from specific measurements, samples or production data and partly from projection for a reasonable distance on geological evidence; and for which the sites available for inspection, measurement and sampling are too widely or otherwise inappropriately spaced to outline the material completely or to establish its grade throughout.

Possible ore  material for which quantitative estimates are based largely on broad knowledge of the geological characteristics of the deposit and for which there are few samples or measurements.

Resource mineralization based on geological evidence and assumed continuity. May or may not be supported by samples but is supported by geological, geochemical, geophysical or other data

http://www.tvxgold.com/MiningTerminology.htm

NEM going somewhere?

Cyberian outpost ( COOL ) up 20% this A.M. ( so far ) . This is an amazing piece of history to be watching. Of course, I wonder at just what prices do the 'common folk' orders get filled at? When this comes down, I doubt that 'stuff' will be up. We need something more, like real trouble in oil or the dollar ( or both ) . Sadly, my telescope will not let me look at that event horizon. It seems that all light disappears there. Hmmmm. The absence of ...

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981125/world/world3.html

10:02 OCT. NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS SINK 7.2%.

10:02 OCT. DURUBLE GOODS EXCLUDING DEFENSE DIPS 1.4%.

10:01 OCT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EXCLUDING TRANSPORTATION DROPS 1.7%.

10:01 [SSSS] STEWART & STEVENSON Q3 LOSS 96 CENTS VS NET 7 CENTS BOTH AFT DISC OPS.

10:01 [SSSS] STEWART & STEVENSON Q3 LOSS CONT OPS 25 CENTS VS 11 CENTS.

10:01 OCTOBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL 1.7 PERCENT.

09:56 [COOL] CYBERIAN STOCK KEEPS CLIMBING, UP 5 9/16 TO 30 9/16 ON AD CMPGN.

09:56 [COOL] CYBERIAN STOCK KEEPS CLIMBING, UP 5 9/16 TO 30 9/16 ON AD CMPGN.

The Holiday Gathering of Kitcoites in the Toronto area is now shaping up quite well. Anyone wishing to attend is reminded to e-mail myself ( Stephen Mooney ) at the above e-mail to become involved. MofromTO - Please e-mail me again as I have tried to reply to you and the e-mails come back as undeliverable. 6Pak - Are you alive out there? Tolerant1 - Gracias me amigo.

taking profit and short ,with a stop 79.5

sold and shorted NEM 22 3/8 with a 22 5/8 stop.it is weak

It is that the PMs are used as a pricing grid for the fiats. It is NOT the dollar that makes for commonality, because the ratios are purely measures of one PM against the other, used to calibrate. Unbeknownst to the world, the world is on a kind of PM standard. At least, that is how
I see it. And as it has been very effective for me, I'll stick with it!

Quite simple. Very effective. And soon to be complete ( if the world doesn't fall apart ) .


Wednesday, November 11, 1998

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 0.8690 Platinum ( oz. )
1 Platinum ( oz. ) ( XPT ) = 1.1507 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )

Median price was 0.8624 / 0.8690 ( bid/ask ) .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, November 11, 1998

1 Silver ( oz. ) = 0.01715 Gold ( oz. )
1 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU ) = 58.3090 Silver ( oz. ) ( XAG )

Median price was 0.01702 / 0.01715 ( bid/ask ) .
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, November 11, 1998

1 Silver ( oz. ) = 0.01488 Platinum ( oz. )
1 Platinum ( oz. ) ( XPT ) = 67.2043 Silver ( oz. ) ( XAG )

Median price was 0.01470 / 0.01488 ( bid/ask ) .


Now, check these measurements against the ratios in the list posted. When the pm gets out of its box, it is adjusted. For example, naughty plat was
'adjusted' --on Sunday, on ONE 'trade/price'-- from 360 to 357, and then disciplined in the market to complete the job.

My its crowded up there, Smoke? do you smell smoke? Fire? Did you say Fire? Where is the Door at?

At dow 8800-8900 I sait this was a great short opportunity ( bad call ) . I still believe that but it is no recommendation.

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 178.746 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 295.950 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 178.885 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 23 Nov 1998 ) : 295.500 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9731 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9175 US Dollars

hey. i thought you promised esoteric that you wouldn't start pulling those levers until later.

hmm ... or maybe you mislabeled them and pulling on them in the past has had the opposite of the intended effect. ( and therefore, not pulling them now... )

:- )

Tuesday November 24, 10:10 am Eastern Time

Note: this article has a followup with more information.

Golden Books says president resigns

NEW YORK, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Golden Books Family Entertainment Inc. said Tuesday Eric Ellenbogen has resigned as president, and stepped down as a director.



Golden Books, a New York-based publisher of children's books, said it would not replace Ellenbogen, who was promoted to president in June. He had been president of the company's entertainment division.



( Note: this article is ``in progress''; there will likely be an update soon. )







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More Quotes and News: Golden Books Family Entertainment Inc ( Nasdaq:GBFE - news )

Related News Categories: US Market News



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

lowered stops and will go net long when broken

I agreed to no MAJOR pulls. He wanted me to do no pulls at all. I can't agree to that because I need to do some calibration and lever labeling.

Welcome back Mon.... Now I'm wondering, do your sources indicate from whence the ever increasing Comex silver inventory has been originating as of late?

Could some of that "European" silver be finding it's way back to the Comex after becoming more "refined" ( as we all know, Europeans are far more "refined" than us brutish US types )

Dad - This is to you and is also a proxy to all the other Dads who are with you, from all the other Kitcoites who may wish to write a similar letter to their Fathers.
Dad - While you were with us you always had a Heart of Gold. I know that you knew that all of us around you loved and appreciated you very much Dad. Perhaps in our culture the spoken word is not used enough to convey this message. WE LOVE YOU VERY MUCH DAD. MISS YOU.

Amen.

BTW- Richard, Re Your Date: "Tue Nov 24 1998 10:01
Crystal Ball ( A letter to my Dad ) " - It was so good that I am sending via Fax to a couple of friends. Thanks.

nem didn't get hit,still short with 22 1/2 stop

Sheeple headed to market, used stock salesmen headed to bonds...

long 22 1/2

Is it too soon to start planning the party?

sold 22 3/8 and on sideline

Just heard a live interview with Bob Brinker of "Moneytalk". He stated that the stock market is headed much higher, with DOW 10,000 in 99 a very high probability.

Brinker makes guy's like Kaplan look like ignorant Puetzkian fools.

Before we deride Mr. Brinker, let's remember that he has an absolutely uncanny record of market calls. He's called the last 4 major cycles, both the up AND down sides, in advance, with almost unbelievable prescience.

The guy called this last three low cycle turns right AT the absolute bottom. On the most recent one, when we were DOW 7400, he stated we'd see a new record high before Christmas ( when most everyone else was ultra Gloom and Doomy ) . He's also called the last four market TOPS with precision that I've not seen in any other analyst.

Those looking for a "crash" right now due to Net stock mania and such, will be disproved as Puetzkian myopics once again. Sure there's irrational bidding on some stock sectors....but an all out crash is nowhere in sight.

It's the fundamentals of the U.S. economy.... overall the best sustained economy we've ever experienced in the U.S.....that tell the story. Bubble or no bubble notwithstanding.

What's all this about "Doing some calibration". You just can't resist fiddling can you ! Back off !

Hey, when the time comes to give the BIG yank on the lever, you wouldn't want me to hit the wrong one, would you?

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 178.746 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 295.950 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 178.724 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 296.450 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9731 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9175 US Dollars

irie mon! None too soon......just ran out of my latest supply..........good till the last drop. Some say overated...........I say, oh well.

Will we be getting a synopsis?

Got relaxed?

away.....to watch this, this DOW..........doh!

ullishstill

greenstone - try a little love.................och aye......the YES! Why so bitter......ALWAYS?? Did some yank take a big piss in your cheerios........all 260+ MILLION of us??

AYE...

Tuesday November 24, 11:28 am Eastern Time

Fed's Ferguson says market strains have lessened

MIAMI, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Roger Ferguson said on Tuesday
that market strains had diminished from earlier this year.

Speaking at a news conference, Ferguson also said he saw no risk of recession from expected
computer problems at the turn of the millennium.

``Some strains still exist, but they are less than they were before,'' Ferguson said of financial markets. He said liquidity premiums
and other factors were still a cause for worry, but there were signs of improvement such as the growing pace of initial public
offerings.

Asked if the Dec. 22 Federal Open Market Committee would be more concerned with tight labor markets or problems in the
financial markets, Ferguson said the committee would look at all its responsibilities. ``We will continue to focus on the range of
issues,'' he said.

Ferguson held the news conference on the sidelines of a hemispheric meeting of financial regulators on the so-called millennium
bug.

``I don't agree with any prediction that the Y2K problem will push the economy into recession,'' he said. The potential problems
would cause a slight drag on the productivity of workers and a possible buildup in inventories, he said.

I suppose not.
Are you sure you know what you're doing there ? We all HOPE so.
Because I'm beginning to think this lever labelling/recalibration issue might have something to do with recent erratic POG behaviour.

It's not enough to pull the levers is it ? You simultaneously have to pull them the right amount in the right direction IN THE CORRECTLY DESIGNATED ORDER. And that depends on many factors including astrological, meterological and numerological conditions ?
Am I right ?

Interesting 'blip' on Silver's radar screen this morn at New York opening. If this is accurate there just MUST have been an interesting story behind it. Hmmmmm? http://www.kitco.com/silver.graph.html

Brother RJ,

There are no unified "Russians" - I mean there are different
groups of business people...Some group represents state
interests, some group - private bank...etc. Would you
assume that Russians that were covering there shorts were
not "state" Russians, but some other Russians...may be those
were Ukrainians ( ? ) , Kazakhs ( ? ) - you guys call them
Russians anyway...do you follow me?

One local Silicon Valley stock I watch closely...because it tends to be a very reliable LEADING indicator Silicon Valley stock...is Applied Materials. Applied doesn't move for the reasons that Internet stocks do, or even for the same reasons that most "High Tech" stocks do. The investors in Applied tend to be a lot more savvy about what's "really" happening with economic growth and earnings.

Applied is the biggest manufacturer in the world, not of semiconductor "chips" but of the machinery that manufactures the chips. Applied is the "Blue Chip" of Semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks. As such, Applied only moves up when the market anticipates strong economic growth, not only domestically but worldwide. A major portion of their sales is overseas.

Yesterday Applied hit a 52 week high. VERY economically bullish looking down the road.

I have been reading alot of people talk of tulip mania and shorting this titanic ( pun ) ........

Well...............do so if you will............but do it only with money that you can piss AWAY. This thing ain't done until the last tulip is sold.........and the wharehouse is still chock full of tulips..........

Just be careful what you buy or sell ;- ) Hmmmmmmmmm......great advice right......... ( yuk yuk ) .....

10,000 is easy now............gold, well...............I'm still waiting for the drop........and like JD's gene-pool I have patience.......uh huh.

away...to work

uyingNOTselling............... ( not gold ) .

btw.......I do know about the laws of gravity......................this ( super ) ball still has more bounce before it drops..........so please don't call me stoooopid with haste...

It isn't quite that complicated, but yes, one has to be judicious.

K.S.K. had good things to say about you. I had no doubt, and clearly the sentiment was justified...thanks for sharing your post a while ago.

A strong U.S. economy sure make sense when you have low interest rates, low commodity prices ( e.g. oil - cheap raw materials ) , high tech miracles hourly, plenty of investment capital, new sophisticated financial systems, international trade and coordination and mergers, low budget deficits, retirement money flooding into companies, giving them working capital. A highly educated populace, sophisticated laws, investment transparancy, etc. I would expect some sort of correction in the short term, but long term all the doom and gloomers have are theories. I say where is the "beef" other than some conspiracy theory about the tri-lateral commission?

Amen Bro

If you have
10,000 troy oz of 24K gold, and per Bart's chart at Kitco there are
10.18 troy oz per cu inch, then you would have
982.32 Cubic inches of gold. Seeing that there are
1728 cubic inches per cubic foot, then you would have
0.56847 cubic feet of gold. But watch yourself picking it up.

Where's the chart?

22 1/4 sell

And where will you hide all that gold?

Hiding Your Tangible Assets
http://www.y2knet.com/y2k/situation/articles/9806/hiding.html

http://www.kitco.ca/chart.wtmelt.html

All I wanted to say is a word of strong caution - expect
unexpected in every deal where Russia is a major player...

From this point of view playing palladium looks very risky
to me...I do not have any ideas about short-term swings, but
in a long run palladium is not something I would want
to bet on...

Another thing - NO INVESTING!

Another thing to remember: There are "paper" Russians
and "physical" Russians, and they are not obligated to
match their plans for the pleasure of each other and
other players in the market. It means you got uncertainity.
What you do when you do not know what to do? - you do nothing...

Just my amateur opinion...

Mole--I hope you're right. Otherwise, I'll be supporting my parents when their 401ks hit the floor. Here's my concerns...

In the past, low interest rates have been indicative of the need to spur on an economy that is falter ( and it didn't work for awhile during the early 90s ) .

Low commodity prices seriously hurt the farming heartland ( PMs aren't the only commodities ) .

High tech helps--no argument. But we already have saturation of the business market. Productivity gains are not going to increase simply because we put Bunnymen inside our aging PCs.

The investment capital is getting more conservative at the high end. I'm working with an investment bank right now that is having difficulty raising funds ( funds that were readily offered three months ago ) . Investment capital from retirement funds will probably continue to flow into the market for awhile, helping prop up the current valuations.

The sophisticated financial systems led to the October 87 crash and have required the implementation of regulatory control to keep them from flattening the market. These sophisticated financial systems also led to the bankruptcy of Orange County by enabling the development and trading of sophisticated financial instruments, ie. deritivatives ( derivitives, you know-LTMC )

Now international trade is an interesting one. Anyone remember the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act? Deepened the Great Depression better than anything old Herbert could have done. The protectionist cry is getting louder in the US. And this international trade is destroying our manufacturing base.

Which ties back into the low commodities prices...Low commodities are most helpful to manufacturers, but we're now a service-based economy.

Research shows that mergers generally do not increase value and often cause a loss of productivity as the merging cultures clash. Mergers almost always lead to divestitures down the road. It's a horribly unproductive use of capital.

Low budget deficits? Someone's been inhaling Clinton/Gingrich's pipe. We're borrowing from the social security trust fund much faster than we'll be able to pay it back in real dollars.

I think you're right about retirement money--for awhile anyway.

Our the education levels of our populace lag behind most of the developed world. Japan crushes us educationally and their education hasn't seemed to helped them much over the past 8 years.

Our laws are not that sophisticated and they certainly don't keep up with technology. This is very evident when it comes to copyright law and communications regulation. Our politicians our generally technological dinosaurs. Though a nod to Gingrich for keeping up with the Tofflers.

US investment transparency is the best in the world. So is its smoke and mirrors. Where do I find derivitives on the books? What about realistics assessments of Y2K remediation efforts? Or "non-recurring" charges that inexplicably recur year-to-year?

I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I am a business fundamentalist. And the fundamentals are appearing to get shaky. The US has demonstrated in the past that it has the incredible ability to overcome great obstacles. I hope this is true this time around. But that won't happen until we have realistic assessments of the fundamentals.

I do appreciate your posts which are contrarian to this board. It spurs critical thinking.

Bet against this economy...as Puetz and others so often told us we should....at your peril. ( Puetz....how those S&P Puts doing that you recommended when the market was 20% lower than it is now by the way? )

Tuesday November 24, 12:27 pm Eastern Time

FOCUS-U.S. economy grew faster than thought in Q3

( Adds analysis, market reaction )

By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Brisk consumer spending and a less bleak trade picture
than previously thought pushed U.S. economic growth forward at a more vigorous pace during
the third quarter than was estimated earlier, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

The nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of total economic activity, surged at a 3.9 percent annual rate in the
three months from July through September instead of the 3.3 percent reported a month ago, more than twice the 1.8 percent rate in
the second quarter.

The revised estimate was roughly in line with Wall Street economists' forecasts of 4 percent. Commerce said the revision reflected
stronger exports than it previously calculated and weaker imports as well as stronger spending by consumers on costly goods like
trucks and used cars.

Inflation remained virtually dormant.

The GDP price index measure of changes in prices of goods produced within U.S. borders edged up only 0.8 percent -- the lowest
rate of price rises in 35 years -- after a 0.9 percent second-quarter gain.

Christopher Low, chief economist at First Tennessee Capital Markets in New York said muted inflation meant the Federal Reserve
had room to further trim U.S. interest rates, if it felt that was necessary, without fear of fanning inflation.

But he added the pressure to ease rates was off with credit markets calming down and the stock market posting gains that might
appear uncomfortably high for the U.S. central bank.

``The Fed is on hold for now. I do expect the Fed to come in again early in the next year,'' Low said. The Fed has cut short-term
interest rates three times in the past two months, helping revive optimism that pushed U.S. stock prices back into record territory
on Monday.

The revised GDP estimate showed unexpected strength in inventories and trade, Low noted. ``So that means it was really domestic
demand that was really a little stronger than ... what we were looking for going into the number,'' he told Reuters Television.

For all the domestic economy's surprising vigor, corporations were unable to make money because the pressure of competition
from struggling countries in Asia and elsewhere made it difficult to raise prices amid abundant cheap imports.

Profits after taxes shrank 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $473.2 billion following a 0.6 percent second-quarter
advance and a 1.6 percent drop in the first quarter this year.

Financial markets showed little reaction to the revised GDP figure, which was close to expectations.

Bond prices were up modestly while the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, eased down to 5.24 percent from Monday's
close of 5.26 percent. The dollar's value lost a little ground against other currencies.

The department said consumer spending, the most potent tonic for overall growth, grew at a revised 4.1 percent annual rate in the
third quarter instead of the 3.9 percent previously estimated.

That followed back-to-back increases of 6.1 percent in each of the first and second quarters this year as robust job growth and low
interest rates encouraged consumers to spend.

The third quarter GDP estimate will be revised one more time. Going forward, economic growth is expected to lose some steam
because of weaker markets abroad for U.S.-made goods, which has begun to be reflected already in slower manufacturing activity.

The first revision continued to reflect a pickup in inventory investment, particularly for the auto industry after settlement of a
two-month summer strike at industry leader General Motors Corp. in late July.

Businesses added to their stocks of goods for sale at a revised $56.6 billion rate, slightly lower than the $57.2 billion estimate made
a month ago but up strongly from $38.2 billion in the second quarter.

Inventories are a volatile component of the national economy, adding to growth when they are being restocked but a potential drag
if companies have difficulty selling them down.

The overall picture of the economy's resilient third-quarter performance was little changed by the revision upward in GDP
growth. Commerce said the key influence in the pickup in growth from the second quarter to the third was strong investment by
companies in inventory-building.

Don't you realise you're the anti-thesis of Peutz?

As you went long on his outrageous calls.
Wouldn't he be going short on your outrageous calls?

Fading the fader........???

For all the domestic economy's surprising vigor, corporations were unable to make money because the pressure of competition from struggling countries in Asia and elsewhere made it difficult to raise prices amid abundant cheap imports.

Profits after taxes shrank 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $473.2 billion following a 0.6 percent second-quarter advance and a 1.6 percent drop in the first quarter this year.

The third quarter GDP estimate will be revised one more time. Going forward, economic growth is expected to lose some steam because of weaker markets abroad for U.S.-made goods, which has begun to be reflected already in slower manufacturing activity.

The first revision continued to reflect a pickup in inventory investment, particularly for the auto industry after settlement of a two-month summer strike at industry leader General Motors Corp. in late July.

Businesses added to their stocks of goods for sale at a revised $56.6 billion rate, slightly lower than the $57.2 billion estimate made
a month ago but up strongly from $38.2 billion in the second quarter.

Inventories are a volatile component of the national economy, adding to growth when they are being restocked but a potential drag
if companies have difficulty selling them down.

The overall picture of the economy's resilient third-quarter performance was little changed by the revision upward in GDP growth. Commerce said the key influence in the pickup in growth from the second quarter to the third was strong investment by companies in inventory-building.
=========
I hope those inventories sell.

Thank you for your kind words. By the way, Aragorn III, who is K.S.K.?

Here is what Dad replied--

"You needn't be sorry, My Beloved Son. I love you more than you could ever know. I am not working-- I am retired and bored to a degree and I do a lot of thnking and worrying about the ones I love and you are on the top of my list. I hope and pray that you and your thinking are right and you will come out a winner. The party is almost over for me, and where I am going, if anywhere, gold melts and turns into subatomic particles. So let's not worry. Let's try to be happy whilst we can. I am so happy that you have Myra. She is a wonderful lady. Love, Dad"

doesn't look good for silver or gold

silver just waiting for the next shoe to drop--probably within 1/2 an hour

gold has a little more support but not much

if they hold here at 4.855 and 396.1 for another hour at least, there is hope. may just get out and short bonds.

btw aren't high bond prices a sign of actual inflation--a lot of money buying em. they will drop when perception catches up with the reality that inflation is 5 times what is commonly believed

This issue is not "betting against the economy".

The issue is "betting against the Federal Reserve".

Please don't confuse these two, they're not the same. : )

HUI sell with resistance 84.80 and XAU a buy with a 78 support.
interesting who is giving the right reading

285 here we come!

Your posts define part of each side of the argument for the direction of the market. Statements outlining the pros and cons are appreciated by all. Thanks

http://forecasts.org/gold.htm

without saying too much, KSK is Tolerant1 as his own Mumm knows him.

http://www.abcnews.com/onair/nightline/transcripts/ntl_981120_trans.html

We can come up with all good reasons why the DOW bubble should burst, however, theory and reality are mostly not in sync. Bubble will burst but only when the money dries up. Until that happens, stock market will suck money from all other investment vehicles ( including PM ) due to the investor view "I put my money where I can make some more". There is no real "shocking news" coming up. Overvaluation if the old news, however, that does not burst the bubble.

In my view, DOW bull still has some steam left. I don't dare to predict how much ( don't have enough data to make the guesstimate ) , but don't look for a significant drop in the near future. Sorry, but that's way I see it. No, this stock market growth is not healthy. However, realism left this market long time ago and don't expect that it will return just because we think it should.

Reuters reported today that "more than 120 computer and linguistics experts are working on a computer language to enable people to communicate over the Internet in their mother tongues with people who speak other languages" using the "Universal Networking Language" ( UNL ) which is "being perfected at the Institute of Advanced Studies of the Tokyo-based United Nations University." Professor Tarcisio Della Senta of Brazil was quoted as saying, "It is not for translating Shakespeare or poetry or even a philosophical text." The article said, however, it would be "useful for a logical text, such as that used in science or commerce." The report went on to say: "When a person wrote something in his mother tongue, its UNL version would first be played back to him in his own language, enabling him to make changes to ensure it reflected his precise meaning. One intended benefit of UNL is that people who speak relatively little-used languages could understand texts originally written in other languages. They would also be able to give wider dissemination to texts written in their own languages...The first stage of the UNL project, launched in April 1996, is to create conversion modules for 16 languages. Those include the six official U.N. languages -- Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish -- as well as German, Hindi, Indonesian, Italian, Japanese, Latvian, Mongolian, Portuguese, Swahili and Thai...The aim is for the languages used by all U.N. members -- now 185 countries -- to be supported by UNL by the year 2005."

Dow Jones on October 12th: 8000

Began a powerful upswing the week of October 12th...

Record high yesterday and the upswing now 7 weeks old.



Date: Mon Oct 12 1998 19:42

JP ( We are still in a Dow Theory Confirmed bear market ) ID#253153:

I would like to remind you folks that we are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed since Aug 4 when the bear market was confirmed. The advance decline line looks terrible despite all temporary rallies. The bond market is correcting it's long advance and rates will resume their decline soon. We are in a deflationary phase that can't be reversed or altered by any politician or central bankers. Attempts will be made to reverse the deflationary trend but they are doom to fail. We had our runaway inflationary phase between 1966-1982 when inflation peaked at 14.4 % annual rates.

Date: Wed Sep 02 1998 14:48
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( IF THE DOW BULLS CAN'T ENTICE THIS AGING RELIC ) ID#372262:

above 8,000 ON HEAVY VOLUME, the reverse head and shoulders top will be convincingly in place and the next target for the DOW will be 5,000 or lower!! Once again for the faint of hearing, GOLD HAS BOTTOMED. DOW HAS TOPPED! Nikkei headed for 11,600 short term and 6,100 long term! Hang Seng headed for 6,300 short term and 4,300 long term! The next shoe is about to drop! Look out below!!!

I agree. It's obviously a bubble, obviously unsustainable, and
obviously Greenspan and Uncle Sam still have considerable leeway in
cutting interest rates and raising deficit spending. Didn't France
do all kinds of hokey-pokey, work-around, desperation measures during
the John Law bubble?

I seem to remember that France's crushing debt reached a ridiculous
interest rate, something like 1%?

JP and Puetz still haven't reached the realization that governments
do have power. : ) Heed the warning, Bug. James Grant has the real
picture, and he warns you - load up on Loral at your peril. : )

General
I moved into the city from a farm at the beginning of this year. Like you, I was concerned about my new dependence upon Town Supply Water. Then I found a local liquor store that sells bulk liquor out of 50 litre plastic containers with a plug at the bottom for a tap. The store throws them out, so capital cost ain't a problem, the Indian shopkeepers were happy to let me have a dozen. A little Sodium Metabisulphite to sterilise the container, a silver coin to keep the water fresh, and voilah..almost 170 gallons of water stored under the house for eathquakes, tsunamis, whatever. Not a lot, but it is a comfort.


PS

You know you're reading too much kitco when you have a dream peopled by the posters, none of whom you've ever met. Tol1, I had no idea you were so young! :- ) Nor that Sheller was so tall, nor Mooney had so much hair.

for $377 each or about $25 over spot. I guess this is a good
deal but I won't haggle over a few bucks. Time to start coverting
electronic assets to hard assets while the Dow is high, the PMs
are low, and the stampede toward safety ( gold, plat, and silver )
hasn't started yet. If you know a fire will go off in the theatre
why not position yourself at the door ahead of time while watching
the movie?

Got God, gold, guns, grub, and generators, and toss in a couple of
good ( ci ) gars while your at it?

That is All.

"the Indian shopkeepers were happy to let me have a dozen"

Aurator - you neglected to mention of these dozen containers were
empty... or full. : )

Both want to go lower .XAU trying for a spot 75 again

Who cares
You've got a special invite to my apocalypso party. Gotta empty the containers of liquor so we can fill 'em with H20, and we won't have much time. Ever seen the Aussie movie-gem about such a party? Called "Smoke 'Em If You Got 'Em" a truly brilliantly wacky movie, perhaps you can find it on video.

will the blame_e fear prevent The Feds from warning about risk. The SEC from warning about earning forcasts,

thanks for the link, Ted Koppels little head must have been hurting doing that show

My wife and I came to the conclusion that the U.S. is doomed last night.

We've been kicking around the idea since Clinton was elected, but lately
there's so much legal confiscation of stuff, etc, that I humbly
request that y'all tell me everything you can about...

New Zealand. : ) Or maybe some other place to go that's quiet, safe
and prosperous. : )

I think I remember that in France the "crushing debt" which
at one point sold off to about 15% interest rates ended up rallying
back to par even as debts increased. Of course, over the next couple
of years the whole thing went up in flames.

This is what is happening to America right now. It is just taking a
longer period of time. I don't know how much lower they can push
interest rates but one thing is clear. Grenspan and Rubin with Clinton
not objecting are responsible along with the banking cartel.
This was the same in France. No difference here.

The whole thing smells and there will be a price to be paid. I suspect
Greenspan and Rubin will try and be safely out of the way of what they
have created. It is possible, however, that in the aftermath of the
bubble bursting that new leadership will come into power and Greenspan
may live out his later years in jail along with Rubin and Clinton.

It is so hard to see this happening I don't even think about it. But
everyonce in awhile I remember what happened in France. How quickly things changed and how quickly peoples psychology changed. That is as
old as the hills and today is no different. If anything, the computer
and instant communications will make things worse.

Time will reveal all.

Thanks, GD

: )

Nightline is a popular show. It's interesting sometimes to
see what is being popularly presented and how it is presented.

I remember the Home Shopping mania early in 1987. HSN ( Home Shopping Network ) went public and the stock exploded. Employees were strutting around dreaming of spending their instant wealth. HSN in Florida and Toronto were adding large scale mainframes as quickly as Burroughs could get them installed ( I was the Burroughs rep in Toronto ) . Thousands of terminals were in place at desktops. The whole world was about to abandon the shopping malls. If you couldn't see it, you were a fool.

I was one of those fools. ( but I didn't short it )

Within about six months, HSN had long since peaked and the overall market was very extended. Then came October 1987.

Home shopping and even HSN are still with us, just in a much smaller form than anyone imagined. These internet retailers will be the same.

Enjoying all your reality checks, but I particularly enjoyed your 13:45 re "DOW theory" Bear market with "no chance" that a reversal in corrective trend is in the cards.

It really points up the empty promises of Bearish "Theories" and "technical analysis" we read here so often...which have once again proven to be meritlous and W/O credibility. Stick with fundamentals and discard all the lofty theories and you won't go far wrong.

To those who feel that the Fed's puny 1/4 point rate cuts X 3 have somehow miraculously changed all economic rules and life as we know it...I say...that makes as much sense as giving Clinton credit for the current economic prosperity we enjoy. The Fed's rate cuts were appropriate..but their effect was limited to a psychological one. It's the underlying economy that is the engine for the current DOW Bull.

Yes we have a load of debt that's increasing, but what the Doomsayers failt to point out is that the increasing debt is proportionate within the target values the Fed set long ago for correspondingly increasing GDP and GNP.

Don't bet against the U.S. economy unless you want to get CRUSHED In it's maw! This is a lesson many here seem not to have learned since the turnaround of the Reagan era. We're not in a 1979 "Carter" economy anymore folks..... 1929 ain't a comin this year...when and if it does we'll see plenty of real signs in the fundamental economic numbers, long before the main event of a meltdown occurs.

I think you said you owned some GSR, why is this stock falling so fast and do you think it will go much lower from here. Do you know if there is a problem , and what will it take to get it going. Thanks for any help !

I could have gone to work to Amazon last month. Would have got options for 10,000 share at $75. Instant jackpot??? Only if the price holds for three years.

Been lots of ten baggers in internet stocks. Managed to pick a few over the years. Problem is they all come back down. The internet retailers will fizzle as well. But some other internet theme stock will drive the next surge. Pick it and get rich. Even in the face of a deflationary depression.

I'm not sure that I have a big enough picture to comment on the TA one way or the other.

But what fundamentals are you refering to regarding the economy?

Thanks in advance for your reply.

Who Cares
Here's a good start
http://www.nzencounters.co.nz/index.html
http://www.aaguides.co.nz/

I think you are right about many or all of this years crop of internet retailers. However, failing a catastrophic meltdown that cripples the ecomomic infrastructure, internet commerce it here to stay, and grow. ( IMHO ) .

I say this ( not of todays highfliers ) because of the convenience and efficiencies inherent in the system. It's ( the internet ) just altogether too convenient to ignore; e-mail, product research, comparison shopping, easy access to third party opinions - all of these have added impetus to my internet usage ( and much more that's not overtly comercial ) and I don't believe I'm that out of the ordinary.

So, I say - internet commerce will grow as individual internet retailers fail.

Can anyboy out there remember how much xerox grew in it's hey day?

Golden Star is a sick stock. They are down to $7 million in cash. They do have some decent drilling projects going and the 30% position in Omai with Cambior. When gold gets hot, this stock is always pushed by the newsletter writers and flies. I made a good chunk of money last time. When the stock goes up, the company always sells a bunch of shares to refill the cash position. This time they may run out of time. My position is small and highly speculative. We need a good run in gold to fix this one.

LGB
by "meritlous" do you mean, "meretricious"?

QUESTION

"Date: Tue Nov 24 1998 12:43
sharefin ( BUGal ) ID#284255:
Don't you realise you're the anti-thesis of Peutz?"

ANSWER...No. My calls are based on economic Reality, and have resulted in my own investment portfolio enjoying rather impressive gains consistently for 18 years.

Puetz's calls are based on faulty TA, biased analysis which considers only bearish components to his equations, and a few "innovative" techniques such as "Eclispe" and "Full Moon" effects.

The motive of my analysis is to attempt to profit from the most probable market direction based on ALL factors. The motive of Puetz's analysis is to sell Newsletters to the gullible.

QUESTION

"As you went long on his outrageous calls.
Wouldn't he be going short on your outrageous calls?"

My outrageous calls? Which ones? Puetz has been the best contrary indicator I've ever seen! I've made a few bad calls, but their effect on my overall portfolio progress haas been miniscule. All major market moves I've made have paid off quite well. Remember 6 weeks ago when I said I was moving 100% of my 401K into Loral stock? The major portion of my net worth? You and others gave me warnings about it. It was during a time of MAXIMUM bearish sentiment, But I believe in the strength of the U.S. economy, and I very well understand the fundamentals of the company I work for.

What happened since then? A 90% gain in 6 weeks. Quite a "Buy" opportunity and one I don't expect to ever see again for quite some time.

Conversely, those following Puetz's S&P "Put" recommendations are broke by now.

I agree that internet commerce is here to stay. The current crop is full of junk. Just for fun check out ebay.com. This is a $200 stock than runs an auction board.

Don't ya just love it..

"by "meritlous" do you mean, "meretricious"? "

Come now Aurator, you know my vocabulary isn't inclusive of such an impressive word as "meretricious" !!!

Actually I meant to say "Meritless" ( which may or may not be an actual word!!! )

I lurk every day. Occaisionally I comment. I find that many posters here speak in absolutes. Usually to support their own egos. If you look past the food fights you can see an interesting pattern of errors.

The "doom and gloomers" tend to use the long term data trends to predict short term events. When they do they are nearly always wrong, especially when they become obsessive.

The "blues skies" tend to use short term data to predict long term trends. When they do they are equally wrong.

This indicates to me that we are in a two to three year topping pattern in the long cycle ( inflation/deflation ) . Lots of "data" to support either position.

A rattlesnake market. ( Who coined this? ) The rattlesnake will bite both the bears and the bulls. In the meantime it is distressfull watching you snap at each other.

The boastful among us with absolute opinions show only your ignorance. The wise among us pay you no little heed.

?

Thank you. I might have figured it out for myself. Regards, CB

Mike Stewart
Good observations re Home SHopping. I hope you saw my post a few days ago about Railway and canal manias of the last century, all just different manifestations of a similar cause: the belief that More trade = More wealth. Human nature, being what it is, lends itself to manias... Amongst the greed, hunger, animality there is also charity and peace.

bbll

Maybe you missed my question--

When you are referring to fundamentals, either of a specific business, ie. Loral, or the US economy which one are you using as your base-line indicators?

This isn't meant to trap you. I'm simply interested in learning.

Careful there SWP1, a handle like SWP.com could make people think that you're an Internet stock. And you know what happens to those stocks! :- ) )

"Or maybe some other place to go that's quiet, safe
and prosperous. : ) "

You might want to look into FIJI.....I just read in the last couple days an article that described it as a Paradise where ( because of the local currency collapse ) you can live like a king on Merkan dollars. English is widely spoken ( and they have gold mines ) . ( ;^ ) )

thanks for setting everybody straight. you're one lunker of a lurker.

All: Looks like we are about to have another downswing in gold/gold equities -- as we should expect given the rising dollar and drooping commodities.

Now -- what we must watch for is another gold 'fire sale'. I still have some of my assets in equities, and gold makes a good early warning indicator.

Anyone know of anything looming which might pop a market bubble somewhere in the world? Its about time for the US market rally to fall back a bit.

Anyone know how quickly we went from boom to bust in 1929? As I recall the auto industry had massively overproduced some time before the market crash. I would guess that a bust in the US will at least wait till next year when y2k can add to the pending bearish earnings news. Of course, businesses with high raw materials costs and a strong market may do very well. International companies with predominately foreign sales may be in worse shape.

An alternative explanation is that gold/gold equities are going through a normal downtrend cycle -- new opportunities to buy coming up!

Hard to be a gold bug Tsunami surfer when you don't know how many breaking waves there are.

I guess you are part of the wise gang?

Reno refuses to appoint independent counsel to investigate that corrupt clueless imbecile Al Gore. Now there's a suprise.

No, he meant mariolatrous.

I am currently writting a business plan for an internet software company. I agree that internet commerce is here to stay. But internet commerce does not lend itself to giant retailers like amazon. It is increasingly the domain of smaller and smaller retailers catering to more and more fragmented life style groups. Just like the catalog industry is growing and fragmenting at the expense of the big department stores and malls ( 10,000 new lifestyle catalogs this year alone ) , internet commerce will continue to grow and fragment the market. However, it will happen faster because of the low barriers to entry and economies of scale.

So what is the next internet strategy??? In a gold rush don't dig gold. Sell gold pans... Not big equipment... pans and the like... lots of them...

Support 76.5

Can someone recommend a reliable on-line discount broker. Currently I'm leaning towards Fidelity because of their reputation. All suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks

People are always fighting the last war. Everyone seems to believe the chant that deflation is the problem and that inflation is dead. Too late they will realize that we have turned the corner and inflation is around the corner. I've been in the investment business for 20 years ( some call me an old timer ) and I've found the most reliable indicator of coming inflation is the money supply. I suscribe to the Fed Data Booklet published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and according to the latest numbers Money Zero Maturity, over the last 45 days, has expanded at an annual rate of 24%. M2 over the same period has grown at an annual rate of 15%. In the late 70's and early 80's the highest rate of money growth was of about 15% on an annual rate. Hold on when this money growth works its way into the economy inflation is going to explode.

Agreed. Money to be made in developing software and network systems that support Internet enterprise, things like clearing credit cards, electronic cash mechanisms, loan processing, etc, etc, anything that helps the small shop get it's act in gear, things that help them make sales, manage projects, get advice, etc. I don't feel there is much money to be made as an online retailer ( despite Amazon ) , more money to be made in supporting a 1000000 online retailers. Other money to be made out there, but I think that's about it for retail. That's the beauty of the net. People want competition, well, how's it go, "Be careful what you wish for ?", or "You're going to get what you want, question is, are you going to want what you get ?"

http://www.woza.co.za/news/nov98/randgoldo.htm

I'm trying to be a wise guy. : )

Really, just trying to figure out who to listen to. Just when someone makes a few good calls, they screw up. I like the guys who look at long term and short term data and try to reconcile the contradictions. Keeps me hedged in all directions.

I would like to hear the "blue skies" quote long term global data to support their short term conclusions. I would like to hear the "Gloom and doomers" quote short term data to support their long term conclusions. Where such common ground exists, there is much opportunity. This may inject some wisdom into the process so that we can all benefit. from.

There are, of course, numerous on-line brokers; my own experience with Fidelity has been quite good. They allow reduced trading for frequent traders, offer ample research, and do not charge for mutual fund trading in over 1500 funds. I have also used Quick & Reilly with complete satisfaction; they are now a brokerage division of Fleet Bank. But Fidelity has enormous resources and financial information that can be helpful. Good luck.

You asked "But what fundamentals are you refering to regarding the economy? "

* Longest sustained period of high growth, low inflation economic expansion in U.S. history.

* Longest sustained period of corporate profit growth in history ( currently slowing due to Asian crises )

* U.S. highest productivity worker globally.

* Real inflation adjusted income increased substantially across all demographic sectors this past year for the first time in decades.

* Low relative inflation, low interest rates

* Historically, very low unemployment currently and strong job growth even during 3rd quarter during global recession.

* U.S, budget surplus ( and many state budget surpluses ) in 1998 for the first time in decades ( yes yes I know, it comes from stealing the social security funds but that's a different issue than the "relative" budget numbers...and the deficit gap is certainly shrinking by ANY measure )

* Increasingly broad economic diversification ...ie economic health is no longer heavily dependant on narrow sectors such as Auto sales.

* Very strong U.S. dollar, ( which surged to a 10 week intraday high against the Mark yesterday for example )

* Steady and impressive demise of "poverty", ie number of folks on welfare rolls being pared to half, and number living below poverty level dropping at better rates than they have in 2 decades.

* Explosive growth in Small Business sector continuing

* U.S. leading the world in High Tech. advancements, both in Engineering and manufacturing.

* Very healthy corporate debt to asset ratios relative to historical norms.

* Record Auto sales in October, and very healthy housing starts continuing, even during Global crises and this historically slow time of year for the sectors.


I could go on.....Of course there are downside indicators too. Increasing bankruptcy rate, decreasing personal savings rate, increasing U.S. national debt ( as always ) , looming corporate profit hits from Y2K conversion and compliance, balance of trade moving negative ( but seems to be turning around now ) ....etc.

I try and read every scrap of NEGATIVE economic news. I want to know what's really going to happen...not what some theorist wants to impress me with.

Overall, on balance, this economy is nowhere near a meltdown ( IMHO ) . If and when the time comes that it IS, I'll be taking appropriate financial steps in advance.

Things could be a lot worse than in the U.S. economy...which is currently the strongest, healthiest economy in the world. We could be living in Russia, SE Asia, Japan, or even Republic of South Africa ( where they are sinking into the worst economic performance in 4 years, their economy shrinking in Recession at a 2.3% annualized rate...similar to Japan ) .

I say, it's Thanksgiving. Why not look at the WHOLE picture and be thankful for what we have?

CyClist.........XAU hit the .618 retracement exactly at 77.05, Lets see if it can hold it there. FWIW, I'm still bullish.
CoBra

covered and expect an upday tomorrow.Selling exhaustion,low volume all
adds up to a recovery.

we should find out how much mew cash come into the indexes today

Re looming inflation somehwre down the roaddue to money supply increases...we agree on this but I would also note, that the huge gains in the stock markets are partly where these money supply increases have been absorbed.

Looking at commodity index charts right now, might make you want to think twice about money supply expansion necessitating a broad based inflation.

To Business travel and back in time for Turkey. Enjoying the counterpoints. Happy investing and happy Thanksgiving to all ( who celebrate it... )

...Go Gold.....

...Go Silver.... ( bought 3000 SSRIF @ 1 1/16 today...great buy opp. with silver so low. Will this be a bad call Sharefin? hehehe )

76.5 is the 30mins uptrend line,HUI is acting stronger
higher gold prices,Plat taking leadership to the upside bouncing
of the 350 pricelevel.Today was a good day as tomorrow will be : )

Few realize how "subversive" the internet is. It is a force for de-centralization. This is where the big money will be made. Tools for de-centralized institutions. Or tools for centralized institutions to fight against the trend. Long run I see a highly distributed and efficient system for distribution of personalized products.

The real experts bought the DOW on the last dip and weighted
heavily in internet stocks. Producing a product or commodity and
making a profit are benchmarks for the history books. Tangible
assets are insignificant; what matters is providing a popular service
with the potential to make money someday. We are the crowd with
the deflated baloon.


#*&%# Woa!

All these minuses make me punchy. My screen looks like a good
candidate for a second grade group subtraction project.

Hard fought doubles going up in smoke. Good buys looking bad.


I'M TIRED OF BOTTOM FISHING !!!!!!


There that feels better.


EZ

, South Africa is rated by some consultants among the world's top five countries for Y2K preparedness  along with the United States and Britain, and ahead of Germany and Japan. Continued......................................................
http://wire.ap.org/APnews/center_story.html?FRONTID=TECHNOLOGY&STORYID=APIS6PDHNRG0

What do you look for in tomorrows support zones?
I'm eyeballing around both 75.8 & 75.2? Although I wouldn't be surprised to see them as resistance around 10:30am with the closing action we just saw : ( .

"For God's sakes, if you're not in this market you better get in NOW or you'll probably miss the whole thing!"--Frank Crappiello

Romarco gets 480,000 and 620,000 free trading shares of Franco-Nevada and Euro-Nevada respectively.
This is a first class ( at this stage of its development ) exploration company that should be closely watched by serious investors. http://www.romarco,com

Very few bought the dip precisely and weighted with internet stocks. Sometimes it seems that everyone made the choices we did not. Much of the current rally is from hedge fund buying. How much would be nice to know. It certainly wasn't me.

Romarco gets 480,000 and 620,000 free trading shares of
Franco-Nevada and Euro-Nevada respectively.
This is a first class ( at this stage of its development )
exploration company that should be closely watched by
serious investors. http://www.romarco.com

My dictionary defines inflation as creating money, it doesn't address what the money is used to purchase. Eventually it works its way into the overall economy. In the early 80's it was used to purchase real estate, oil, gold, ect. Today it is being used to buy stocks. Do you doubt that the eventual outcome will be the same, a bad end with too much money chasing too few goods ( stocks ) .

I'm thinking along similar lines, but I won't discount the possibility of the Internet becoming a centralized resource in itself with "meat" peripherals ( someone here used that phrase ) . For the past decade the Internet has been great, everyone pushing their new solutions to communications and networking problems, etc, and we've got lots of competition out there between various vendors for everything from chat group software, online auction systems, and web servers. But will the trend continue ? I don't know. I could just as easily see the trend reversing itself when companies with enough money throw enough resources at particular problems, there may indeed be a "best way" or a "maximal efficiency" to this thing. You can already see it in telecom. In theory, the Internet is a distributed network of networks, in practice, merger mania is sucking up the mom and pop shops who can't operate as efficiently as the folks with buried fiber from here to Mars. This thing could just become one big computer, much as the telephone system is just one big thing ( regardless of de-regulation ) . Note that as soon as deregulation opened up the phone lines, the strongest new players started eating up the weaker older players and we ended up right where we started, with few choices. The choices we do have are mostly re-packaged old choices going through third party retailers. We just have to remember that in the early days of telephone every community had a telephone cooperative, same for power. Cable television is headed that way, and direct TV started out essentially a monopoly. This thing could end up being one large network with a billion end-users, much as the telephone system is with telephones and multiple callers. Choice could end at the curb. Powerful forces are at work.

I'm looking at a gap up at the 67.80 area some time back. XAU.. that is, it may want to back down there and fill that gap, I don't think it will... DEC AU holding above $294.50 is the key.......
CoBra

Time is squaring price in the first half hour tomorrow.Cycles are
positive this week and next.If 75 is broken ,63 becomes a possibility
regardless.Play it short and long,making money is the game.The stock doesn't know you own it.Have a good day : )

Thanks.

Thanks for all your efforts with the URLs....much appreciated!

Thanks ( to you too )

I work a more conservative day to day ( close ) MF plan ; )

Have been waiting for this wedge to break for a week...

I'm still looking for a upward moving close between 65 & 67. Tomorrow? - don't know. I just adjust my entry parameters, wait and watch. ( I'm usually a day or two late on intermediate moves & get stopped out half the time anyway )

Good luck & good trading.

I just wanted to add to my last post that I have seen the forces for centralized control work to consolidate the Internet in the past, whether that be a conscious effort on the part of power-mongers or the natural evolution of the thing. There have been two very critical coups that have happened in just the past few years, I was witness to them, as were a lot of the folks here. The first one was when the trend appeared that forced you to compete with the big boys for address space. These days, you can forget registering a Class-B, and you can almost ( trend has run it's course ) forget using a Class-C netmask that hasn't been given to you by one of the big boys. Try getting traffic to route to your Class-C from years back, you might find that you can't reach half the Internet for technical reasons. Again, it could just be the evolution of the thing, certainly the case made by the big boys for Class-B allocation is that it is optimal for routing purposes. BUT, the end result is that now I have to pay for a Class-C network mask through some providers, something I didn't have to do in the early days. Maybe IPv6 will step in to save the day, maybe it won't. The second coup that I remember was the first time I got a bill for a domain name, something that had been free for all the years before Network Solutions. Powerful forces are at work.

Kinda reset's the graph...

Wow...someone who appreciated a post I put up! In that case, before I go, let me add.....

* 198,000 new jobs created in Aug-Oct quarter

* Capital expenditures running at 9%

* Consumer spending continuing at near record levels ( Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of U.S. GNP )

* 11 year high in October nationally, for new housing starts...Wow..in the face of all the global Gloom and Doom even

* Consumer confidence high throught 98, but especially soaring in past month after 4 month decline due to Global economic concerns

* Unexpected high corporate profits in many key high tech. firms, Intel for example, which showed excpetional profit in 3rd quarter at a time when Global econmic meltdown theorists had predicted a big drop.

OK, one more quick nugget on meteors and I'll be gone for real.

Good Nasa link with images and analysis. For your shooting star following pleasure. One video clip has a "Near pass" by a sattelite!

http://www.leonids.arc.nasa.gov.

Gone for a time.......

I lurked and followed your running dialog with Silverbaron, regarding your EWAVE reading at the time when the Dow began falling from its July high to the late August low. You had surmised that we were begining the first wave down in the bear market. A few days ago, you stated that this latest rise since the October low was wave 2 and that it was taking an abc x abc form.. Yesterday, we went past the July high. Therefore, I'm a little confused because this rise since the August low cannot be a wave 2 since it went PAST the July high. Just curious about what you think the wave count is now. Thanks in advance.

Soon my dear, soon.
Here this will help.
She wrapped the red wool coat
With pride.
A fine tailored garment fitting of One That
Protects.
Chivalrous gentleman was he.
Not to project the haughty vanity
Strutted about by lost generations.
But rather to shield herself from the
Winds of November.
Her tears pushed back
Into her now unkempt hair by the
Stiff gale presented before her.
Gone was the lustre of summer light
In her tresses.
Replaced with the dullness
And flatness of paper.
That which burns when least expected.
When shall we return to those days?
Back to the age of majestic shadows
Of noble winged creatures
Tracing oer waving acres of wheat.
The grain itself transformed from its
Healthy nourishment into a mere faade,
Its once copper glow,
Reduced to subway token shine.
Arcing eagles no longer occlude
Our hosts radiance.
Now menacing orbs blot out the warmth of the sun.
Devilish hot aired creatures,
Marked with four letter names
Surely created in Hades.
Woe are the fathers, mothers and
Childrens futures which
Gather beneath, she wept.
Wishing on bubbles to seek the heavens
Will be crushed in spirit and purpose.
Chariots of hope and greed
Were never meant to fly so high.
Prophesy did not collect the crowd there.
Nor the celestial dance of that
Which waxes and wanes above.
It is free will.
And forgotten lessons of the past
Inscribed in gifts from the almighty,
Which they have chosen
For their place in this field.
This place of past hopes and future despair.
Flung off her brace.
Back to her beau it went.
Soon, soon my precious one.
Whispered him before
Returning to his faithful steed.
Goodnight Liberty.
We shall surely dance again.

TOTAL REGISTERED
36,718,511 0 0 0 846,230 37,564,741
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
39,446,683 727,000 727,000 0 -846,230 38,600,453
COMBINED TOTAL
76,165,194 727,000 727,000 0 0 76,165,194
*************************************************************************There was 846,230 oz's transfered from ELIGIBLE to REGISTERED. Hmmmmmm.

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100k.htm

All: Kenneth Starr was interviewed by Dianne Sawyer. He praised WJC's skills at impressing people, while tactfully maintaining that ( indiscriminate ) extramarital sex was morally wrong. He also said that if no one took perjury seriously that there was no need any more for the judicial system. ( Just read behind the lines on that one! -- Diogenes, where are you? ) .

This does not sound like someone who is just about to go for the jugular on the impeachment of WJC.

I wonder, was the sudden rally in the markets orchestrated to get WJC off? As Oldman says, WJC's fortunes and the market's fortunes go hand in hand together. Those FED maneuvers, and the Republican 'upset' in the elections showed uncanny timing.

On the other hand, if Hillary is to be indicted, that could happen even if impeachment proceedings have ended. Probably not.

What will happen next year, if the US markets go south? If they don't, it will because the FED has dropped interest rates some more. And if the US markerts don't crash, the dropping rates will be good for gold -- even without the EURO and y2k.

Anybody here writing un-covered calls ? Say, Dec 99 at 10% of their value ? Premiums look awesome, of course, good way to end up in the poor house too, but that's the beauty of the whole thing.

In the normal cycle of market events, the market turns down as it senses a decline in the economy coming. The economy prceeds to slow as the market declines. Eventually as the economy slows the Fed lowers rates or rates lower themselves due to slow demand. The market begins to sense the bottom and takes off shortly before the economy begins to recover.

In the situation we have, the market began to decline in response to GLOBAL crises even whilr the US economy remained strong. The Fed lowered rates in response to the liquidity crunch and threatened hedge fund crises even while the economy continued to churn ahead.

Now we have the market responding to the rate cuts in anticipation of the economy taking off again because of the gasoline having been thrown on the fire.

But the declines in corporate profits due to the original downturn have not yet really begun to occur to any great extent yet.

Either the market is wrong and the bubble burst, or the market is right and we are in for some inflatiionary overheated economy.

Or...a third scenario wherin the overstimulated economy produces overproduction without increased demand which will lead us farther down the deflationary spiral.

Take your pick.

If the global economy does not begin to recover soon, scenario three ( overproduction without matching demand ) will be the most likely, and that direction is the most deadly.

It's the stuff depressions are made of. Money supply can be increased, but withoud demand it's like pushing on a string.

With US savings at an all time low, putting more money into the hands of producers by making it cheaper to borrow, does little to help the producers if their customers don't have the wherwithall to buy the products.

to the local pub. I'll be back later.

Everything in financial markets these last few days should be weighting on GOLD : higher $ , higher stocks , low lease rates in GOLD and modest economic growth data.
However the POG has been resilient and even shown some strength building a nice base above long term average.
Is it the announcement by the european CBs that collector GOLD coins will be minted and therefore taking some pressure off the GOLD market in the distant future or is it the RUSSIAN scrapping V.A.T. on GOLD ? Difficult to say.
I suspect the natural market factors are in play : high seasonal demand and a lack of short seller are the key. Y2K fears translate in good investors demand and hedge fund got their credit lines all but cancelled due to the latest financial scare.
Look to 340 target in the first semester before central banks call writing resume.

This baby is getting ready for the 20th century, in which demand for uranium will rise and they being one of the few economical sources. Remember Potash Corp?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/981124/cameco_1.html

Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.43. The 233 day moving average is 29.08

XAU/Spot Ratio = .257. The 233 day moving average is .249

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981124/mi_amway_c_1.html

Options are neat. There are real estate folks out there who specialize in buying up property and selling it for a profit, and at the other end of the spectrum are firms that enter into contract with the property owner and act as agents for advertising and sale of the property, thus making a profit on the premium they charge for their services. I wonder, however, if there are real estate firms that seek out property and purchase options against the property, locking in the sale price, and insuring that they are the only firm that can buy the property for a specified amount of time, who then turn around and find a buyer who is willing to pay more, at which point they exercise the option to buy. Seems like a good way to run a real estate shop if you have a good marketing/sales channel, and you can turn property over fairly quickly, certainly more profit potential than selling your agent's sales skills. Just thinking.

Go Gold.

This morning you said palladium was up on short covering
by Russians...I did not dispute that "good source from
the pit" thing..don't really know, but what about heavy
sales in London today again...? Strange, yes? "Source from
the pit" tells you Russians are short and covering, and they
are heavily selling in London.. Or is it different Russians
in London and over here...What do you think?

I'm wondering what this source from the pit will tell you
in the middle of December....when "Russians in London" start
dumping for real?





Pit

I'm amazed at the rate corporate profits are falling in their overseas markets. If the CPI changes by 0.1 percent, or the GDP moves that much, it's a huge deal of course. 0.25 basis for the FED is something that's sure to make the news. But some of these export numbers are just AMAZING, not off 0.25 percent, or 2 percent, or even 10 percent, Novell just reported 38 PERCENT! That is, 38 percent of their overseas market just went up in smoke! These are not good numbers and not the sort of thing that I think will turn around on a dime. They do not bode well for the bubble.

Lots of REIT's on the plus side today. They've been depressed for quite a while. Nice dividends and earnings. Just thought you might be interested.
Highhopes

It was reported late yesterday thru the usual links. Stock up over 1/2 buck today, this play seems to be shaping up nicely.

Some junior gold miners taking jumps of 10% a day on the VSE
Time to switch gears,its going to be a hell of a Christmas bonus : )

Maybe the ads mean there's a growing market for tangible assets since the intagibles have out-of-reach inflated prices.

I sure like the way the Morgans are getting heavily marketed by the TV junk-hawkers, in-flight rags, and now Amway. It's driving the price of my coins through the roof.

I recall how when the stock market was scraping the low 7000's in August and everyone was bumming out, the bulls said, Hey! This is the buying opportunity! When you see 'The Crash of '98' on the cover of Newsweek, it's time to buy.

And they were right.

They also said that when the market is flying and everyone is saying how great and bullish and perfect things are, watch out!

They were right about that, too.

But they seem to have forgotten that part.
-EJ

All: The WJC market rally euphoria is about to enter stormy seas, if Burton has powerful supporters. Both Kenneth Starr and Burton ( sorry -- forgot first name ) are lamenting about how politics seems to override the rule of law. The tide may yet shift again, and the American system of justice may yet recover from what seems to me a 'near death experience'.

Perhaps our Democratic system has not yet crossed the Rubicon.

http://www.drudgereport.com/411.txt

Hmmmmmm....about the Elliott Wave count.

Frankly, a conventional wave count ( that is, an expected a-b-c pattern for wave 2 ) would not have lead the market to a new high from the October low. So it seems that Elliott's system may have failed on this one.

I've voiced some comments here in the past, that I don't think Elliott Wave counting is necessarily appropriate ( or useful ) in non-free markets ( read rigged markets ) .

Having said all that, I think that Peter DeSario gives a good shot at the current situation. He says the market is REALLY risky and set for a big pullback. I agree.

Peter is at the Wave ( s ) of the Future ( s ) section in this link:

http://www.marketprojections.com

User: hixson
Password: thmetal

( I think they've forgotten this is supposed to be just a trial )

http://www.nikkei.co.jp:80/enews/TNW/page/dspage0039.html

I have a cold...will be down for a couple days...moving REAL slow...cannot sit up long...Happy Thanksgiving to one and all...thud...

When we see Tupperware parties for plastic coin holders then we will really be on to something!

About 20 years ago I moved my business to a new state and didn't want the added insecurity of getting dislocated from my rental for at least a year. ( while the business got going )

The woman had intentions of selling the property- so this was a real possibility. But I also wanted the option to move if a better deal came up. ( moving to a new area it takes a while to find out "the ideal place to live" in terms of drive time, crime, location etc.

So I rented the home on a month to month and paid the woman $1000 for an exclusive option to buy ( first right of refusal at a specified price )
The option expired in one year. Worked out good for me, in the year I found out that her property wasn't ideal- and eventually bought somewhere else. I still think it was well spent money- cheap price for a bit of security.

All: interesting site:-

http://www.parida.com/ag.html

Max

Kinda looks like the Fed rate dropping program backfired. Some of that nice new cheap money is lightening the credit crunch in the USA, but it looks like most of it's winding up in the stock market. And the money that is going into the real economy is increasing overcapacity. Woops.
-EJ

Thanks for posting that, I had been looking around the net for experiences people have had with options. It seems like the perfect thing for real estate firms to me, just think, with minimal money you could "control" a vast amount of expensive real estate and focus on selling it, you wouldn't have to drop down a huge amount of cash on the asset, you could just pay the premium for the option and focus on cash flow. Owner walks with the premium with no downside risk, I like. I hope to purchase an option when I get some land in the near future. I want to buy a part of a large acreage with the option to purchase the rest, it's just good for me as far as financial planning is concerned.

Donald: I think that is the best post of the day. Nice succinct summary of what separates the World Economy ( now ) from Worldwide Economic Oblivion. Not much.

Threats to the World Economy:

1 ) Declining US market values

2 ) Decline of other equities world wide, as well as a potential repeat liquidity crunch

3 ) Financial system instability -- CB's, derivatives markets problems.

4 ) Japanese downward spiral

5 ) Chinese Yuan devaluation -- still possible, but less likely if US dollar drops. Catch 22 for US.

6 ) Expanded US trade deficits and future demand for trade barriers.

The last item would probably be the coup de gras. Worldwide trade barriers -- just exactly what happened in the 30's.

I would add one more item -- a South American implosion. And -- we have no evidence that the problems of Mexico or Brazil have been resolved. Temporary fixes by the IMF et al only. You can bet all of your gold coins that the BIS is desperately doing whatever it can to prod Japan out of their doldrums. If Japan fails to come around, that could pull everything down. And an Asian gold-backed currency might be delayed for years.

We should pay more attention to the view of the world as seen from Japan. They are over their market mania and now are more inclined to have the proper perspective. After our market mania is over we will see it the same way.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- A lawyer for domestic steel producers believes Japan and Russia will curtail cheap imports to the U.S. market now that the countries might face additional duties. Although the United States has yet to impose any tariffs in the U.S. steel industry's trade complaint, lawyer Roger B. Schagrin said the threat is enough to deter imports immediately. The Commerce Department found Monday that imports doubled over five months while domestic producers were preparing their case to fight the shipments.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0m.htm
--
Protecting your market works for a while.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- American hog farmers -- struggling to recover from their lowest prices in 27 years -- found a glimmer of hope in a decision by the government to purchase up to $50 million worth of pork. But they cautioned that with hogs worth less than half of what they were a year ago, it's going to take a significant rebound to help very much.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1i.htm
--
So does the government subsidy.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The government reported the worst drop in corporate profits in nearly nine years on Tuesday, even as stock prices hovered near record highs. Economists predict earnings could fall again next year and say they fear the market is vulnerable to another downturn, perhaps worse than the Dow's 19 percent plummet between July 17 and Aug. 31. So why did the Dow Jones industrial average begin the week by shooting to a record high?

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1t.htm
--
But there are limits to government money and isolationist policies.

Not your typical politician type.

Thanks for the response....your words of caution are understood and well appreciated.....thanks........

I recently had a "babtism of fire" of sorts............Pd moves like a drunken mule........

Will be observing carefully before getting on board again.

Later,

THC

From the view of the federal government, they'll have to go with protecting our markets with trade restrictions over subsidy of industry that is being hurt by cheap imports. Why ? Because they've burned all their powder. They can't finance it with deficit spending, been there and done that, and they can't increase revenues with tax increases because that's already been leveraged, and they'd risk crushing the US consumer ( bad thing ) . What's a little ole federal government to do ? Kill imports with trade restrictions, kill the dollar to increase exports, pump cash into the system to increase domestic trade, stop our largest competitors from killing their own currencies, and pray.

Out today but not on the net yet. It shows a drop in the index from 142 in April to 79.6 now. Simply does not agree with the upbeat federal government statistics.

The largest period of growth of the US economy coincided with a tariff policy that would be considered onerous by today's standards.
The difference is that there was no income tax, constitutional money, and the gommint was about one-tenth the size that it is now.
I don't subscribe to the global competition mantra of the modern republicrat one-party state.
I could tolerate a reasonable tariff policy, if myself and my countrymen did not have to turn over more than half of our production to the parasite class.

markets. He has been nailing this one for some time now.
http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/DJI/DJILongTerm/DJIL/DJIL_0.html

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100k.htm

I have lost any confidence in any economic statistics that the central gommint publishes.
I can tell that I have an empty order book for new molds. This tells me that industrial production will shrink drastically in the next few months. New machine tool purchases should be a leading indicator. I talk to dealers, and, when they are not being falsely effusive they will decry their lack of orders. The metal cutting industry is in a depression.

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Federal bank and securities regulators issued a warning Tuesday to financial institutions not to inflate their reserves set aside for possible bad loans. The joint statement came in the wake of criticism by the Securities and Exchange Commission of SunTrust Banks Inc. for the way it managed its reserves. While not accusing Atlanta-based SunTrust of anything improper, the SEC suggested it had set aside larger reserves than needed in order to use the money later during a possible downturn in earnings. As a result, SunTrust agreed to restate its earnings for the three years ended Dec. 31, 1996. In addition, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt recently has pushed all publicly traded companies to improve their financial reporting and avoid manipulating their earnings to meet Wall Street analysts' projections. The market watchdog agency plans to issue new accounting rules soon that would force companies to disclose more information on certain items.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1r.htm
--
Smoke and mirrors

Are they saying that this bank has allotted too much of its capital for loan loss provisions, or, too little.
If it is the former, then they might be understating their earnings, which would give the leviathan less tax. ( but be prudent for the depositors )
If it is the latter, then why can't they put a "dot-com" on the end of their name?

.

My reading on it is that the bank has stored up cash in it's reserves to give the impression that it is building up those reserves to cover possible bad loans, when the fact ( in the SEC's eyes ) is that it's building up a buffer so it can make it's number in the future ( analyst's projections ) in the event that it's profits fall off. Gotta make that number, Wall Street doesn't like it when you don't make your number.

I have been using Quote.com realtime quotes for about a year but have become very disillusioned with the time it takes to get on to their site.

I tried a new service today, mytrack.com , and it looks good. You have to download software but you get delayed quotes and charting for up to 20 stocks, commodities or options. Indices ( DJIA, XAU, etc. ) seem to be in real time. You also get business news headlines in realtime. All this is for free. For less than $20 plus exchange fees, you can get realtime quotes on up to 20 stocks, options & commodities. And of course if you pay more you get more. It will only run on Win 98, 95 and NT.

Of course I have no financial interest in this company, blah, blah etc. etc.

Kapex, Do you know what MOB means on those get charts, and how does one find out what they forecast now?
TIA,rb

RUMPLED: Would you be good enough to remind us what +10 in the Pitbull Crash index means. Many thanks.

This is unfair since you're not here, but here's my response to your posts ( minus the Leonids : ) )

Longest sustained period of high growth... Past isn't necessarily prologue. Getting to the top of Mt. Everest leaves the longest drop on the other side.

Longest sustained profit growth...today's figures tell us this is over.

US highest productivity/worker...hope this stays true, the Japanese were killing us in the late 70s and early 80s before we found Deming.

Inflation adjusted income up across the board. Excellent point. And hallelujah!

Low relative inflation...could argue about the value of this, but won't. Generally a good sign.

Low interest rates...already touched on this in earlier post. The Japanese have low interest rates.

Low unemployment...keeps the consuming American spending his/her cash. Generally good. But Japan's unemployment rate is comparable.

Federal budget surplus...Joke right?!
State budget surpluses...good sign, but about to be squandered in new spending programs and tax cuts rather than reducing state debt.
Shrinking budget deficits...this was all smoke and mirrors. Look at the Balanced Budget deal worked out between Bubba Clinton and Bubba Gingrich, most of the unspecified budget cuts occur in the out years. If the Omnibus Highway bill is any indication, these cuts won't happen. This shrinking budget deficit is about to blow away in the brisk wind of political reality.

Increasingly broad diversification...I kind of agree. Diversification of the economy is good, though I see more a shift to service from manufacturing than a broader diversification. But THAT is only MY opinion.

Very strong US dollar...kills our exports...kills foreign investment in our country...kills the current account.

Demise of poverty...EXCUSE ME!!?!?!? The shrinking of the welfare roles is a legislated reduction and is NOT an indicator of increasing prosperity. Though there has been for the first time, as you indicated, across the board increases in personal income. BTW-it's not hard to have the "number living below poverty level dropping at better rates than they have in 2 decades" when these numbers have been increasing since the advent of trickle-down economics and the Laffer curve.

Growth in the small business sector...good news indeed. Hope it's sustainable.

US leading the world in hi-tek...Can't argue this.

Good corporate debt ratios...also good news.

Housing starts up...good, but highly volatile.

Auto sales up...adjusted for the GM strike? ( I don't know )

198,000 new jobs created...job creation is slowing down

Capital expenditures of 9%...we already have over capacity, and we're building additional capacity.

Consumer spending is at record levels--2/3 of US economy...not much room to keep this up, especially with a negative savings rate. Contraction in this area will be devastating. Retail has just started to recover in the last year from the 1990 recession.

Consumer confidence...latest was up according to the gov't figures. But may not be indicative of the trend. ( Or it may be )

Stronger than expected profits stood out because they were exceptions to the general downturn. Double-digit earnings growth projections have been revised to neutral or declines. Not a good sign. The S&P and DJIA P/E ratios are getting truely wacky ( not a technical term ) . Earnings are lagging stock prices at historical levels.

LGB--I think you are right on many counts. The economy is definitely putting out at an incredible rate. But all the justifications that were being used this summer for such astronomical stock valuations, have been invalidated during the past couple months. The world is not as rosy as it was reported to be in July. And yet, we have new market records.

No, the US economy may not implode. I certainly hope not. But the stock market just might.

Thanks for the posts. Some of your arguments tempered my pessimism.

http://wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

Does mytrack handle the Canadian exchanges?

Sorry for the late reply, but, I was rooting around for other acorns.
The way I see it, a bank that can shield some assets for a bad period is a better bank. I haven't any idea whether the go-go bankers do this nowadays. What, me worry? We have the FDIC to save us from imprudent banking, now.
My, isn't there a bearish sentiment out there tonight. I can't find too many traders that are gloating about the huge runup that they have had.
It is as though a bunch of them are comparing notes as to what they got away with on the playground.
They are terrified of what "Teacher" has in store for them when they have to come in for class.

I posted this on USAGOLD site several days ago. I believe that out of chaos a new form or system of currency will be foisted on the world. IMHO, this will occur anytime between now and the spring of next year, especially when the new Euro currency begins in earnest. A planned event such as world markets collapsing, Y2K, war or some other horrendous occurrence will precipitate masses clamouring for our illustrious leaders to save us. Many will say that this would be a good thing save the fact that much centralized power will be in the hands of a few. The basic beginning of Fascism. Isaiah, " For lack of knowledge, my people want".


"No matter whether a government or the politicians thereof want the
responsibility for maintaining the monetary discipline imposed by gold, I believe that we are on the road to this discipline by the major CBs.
These CBs realize that some sort of monetary reform is required if stabilization of any currency in terms of purchasing power and foreign exchange is to be achieved.

As Aragorn III implies, cooperation between the ECB, FRB, BOJ, BIS and others is a must if world trade is to be successful. Note the sales of gold by CBs and wonder whether this is simply an allocation of assets between various banking systems until the time arrives for the planned reform ( conspiracy ) of the monetary system. Also note the forward selling of gold many years in advance by producers guarantying a continuous supply for many years hence to these CBs to bolster their reserves and allow for growth.

The currency crisis is at a point that the above is almost mandatory if stability of trade and foriegn exchange is desired ( conspired ) by the world governments. A temporary ( notice I said temporary because politicians will debase again and again and again in due time ) . A new period of stability would begin again and in all probability be welcomed by the public and financial community of the world.

What would this mean to the POG? IMHO, a revaluation of gold would have to occur if the limited amount of gold were to be used for reserves, say 15% of massive amounts of monies and debts currently existing. Did'nt the POG revaluate previously when we went off the gold standard?

I believe that once the Euro currency begins in Jan 1999, that gold will be allowed to float freely until a balance between gold and various currencies reaches a fair market value.

After fleecing us as much as they could, the powers that be can begin anew and continue the shell game ad infinitum till the next breaking point.

Anyone have an idea of the revaluation of gold would be if the above is not just a pipe dream?"


We all should know that physical gold will be cornered by major CBs by the time the above happens and those that were astute enough to purchase physical gold will be {:- ) ) . All IMHO. That is if they don't confiscate!

Best regards,

Nostradamus, er, excuse me, Pete {;- ) )

One counter-intuitive thing I'd like to ask a question about is the government debt. Is there any real indication out there that carrying a huge government debt is a bad thing ? What I mean is, despite all the warnings that have been issued by everyone ( including the Treasury ) about high debt and deficits, things keep on rolling along, well in fact. How will a large debt finally manifest itself in bad ways ? Why not a 10 trillion dollar debt ? Or 20, or 30 ? Will the debt ever come home and gum up the works ?

Wasn't too long ago there wasn't enough liquidity:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981123/bmb.html

This is pretty close to the way I have it figured. The medium is the message. We have created a system in which we are totally depenent, and to which we are totally accountable. That begs for cyber-tyranny. No other outcome ( other than Christ returning on a cloud ) is possible.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_company_file/newsid_221000/221088.stm

If the world's economy collapses, it's far better to be heavily in debt becuase of all the real goods you have bought than it is to be the world's greatest creditor because of all the goods you have sold in return for paper.

Valuations are too high. And there should be a good correction. But over the long run the U.S. looks really good for these fundamental reasons: resources, technology, education, english ( the worlds language ) , money - equity and investment ( billions of $ a week go into stocks, bonds and money mkts ) , climate, laws, democracy, probable long term low interest rates, new sophistication in economic understanding, new world and technological paradigms. What country has more than us and when in history have things been better? There are always problems. The budget problem is relatively better than it has been. Our system and is flawed, except for all other systems at all other times which are and have been more flawed.

Where do you see the POG next year before the year 2000 and the POG after the year 2000??

I use Mytrack, and it does handle the Canadian Exchanges.
Slick product. I reccomend it to all.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981124/ge.html

The Keynesians claim there is nothing wrong with a deficit, though Keynes only advocated a deficit during times of economic distress.

Two immediate problems I see with a carrying a national debt.

First, it makes the US govt a monstrous competitor for debt, thereby raising interest rates and costing business billions in interest costs.

Second, financing the debt requires ever increasing interest payments. These are eating up a larger share of the federal budget and decreasing monies available for defense and other critical services.

These are just two quickies. The arguments against long-term federal debt get pretty deep.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981124/wk.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981124/bar.html

Answer: the last time oil prices were this low.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981124/4w.html

http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc005.htm

If the world goes on a reserve gold monetary system next year or year after, I see it not in 100s but in 1000s. IMHO.

Best regards,

Pete

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke112098.html

Assuming we dodge any major natural or other unforseen disasters, I think you're right. Over the long term, the US is much better positioned than ANY other country. Both for the reasons you have mentioned, and for the basic fact that Americans respond to challenge much better than they do to prosperity. It makes us soft and dumb.

Nobody seems to be focusing on the upcoming introduction of the Euro. In about 40 days the Euro will begin trading, likely taking a bid away from the dollar. The world is going to change pretty dramatically when this happens. It could undermine the dollar and it could be good for gold, we will have to see. In terms of something that is cheap, gold is not that expensive, especially when you compare it to the cost of its production.

Silver is even cheaper.

I continue to favor the precious metals as a low-risk idea. There are a lot of things that could be bullish for these metals, but given their depressed price, there isn't much risk involved. Which, of course, is the opposite of what is happening in the rest of the market, where there is tremendous risk.

I have gold pegged at $3,000-$5,000/oz by the year 2005.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=327601432

hmmmmmmmmm

Thanks, another question then. If the economy were to slack off a bit and revenues dropped for the federal government, what would they do about the budget and a possible deficit ? Would they push debt into the money supply ? Would they cut spending ? Would they try to increase revenues ( taxes ) ? Or would they just let the debt mushroom ?

Last Sunday the server for my computer went on the blink.Sorry I couldn't get back to you about why your metals dealer preferred the silver over the gold.Other than obvious supply-demand arguments----- I don't have a clue.

As to your perplexity over the U.S. debt------- I have nothing to offer you but a glass of water and my encouragement that you should continue to be bothered by that debt and keep asking what we are going to do about it.Maybe it is one of those English word problems: fly ( the insect ) / fly like a bird.I don't think the government is as worried about debt as you or I.Maybe we just don't understand "debt".

Interest rates are historically low. Should the long bond ever rise to 9% instead of the current 6.8% average then interest payments would rise from 23% of the $1.5trillion federal budget to 31%. Would programs be cut, taxes raised, or would the extra interest heaped on top of the debt?

Of course our weak politicians would heap it atop the debt. This is a classic debt trap whereby the interest alone becomes unbearable, forgetting actually repaying the principle. Bankruptcy is innevitable as compounding of interest at a rate over the growth rate of the economy means we fall further and further behind. In other words, the debt is almost as big as the economy so if it grows at the rate of interest and that rate of interest is bigger than the growth rate of the economy, how can we ever repay short of monetization or default?

Then there is the issue that we may need to deficit spend sometime in the future due to economic crisis or war but we have already tapped our credit almost 100% of GDP. I restate that Reagan and Bush will be shown by history to be the worst presidents ever by borrowing from the next generation to pay for things which would not last as long as the debt itself.
--------------------------DEBT INTEREST PRIOR YEARS DEBT
FISCAL YEAR 1988 $214,145,028,847.73 $2,350,276,890,953.00
FISCAL YEAR 1989 $240,863,231,535.71 $2,602,337,712,041.16
FISCAL YEAR 1990 $264,852,544,615.90 $2,857,430,960,187.32
FISCAL YEAR 1991 $286,021,921,181.04 $3,233,313,451,777.25
FISCAL YEAR 1992 $292,361,073,070.74 $3,665,303,351,697.03
FISCAL YEAR 1993 $292,502,219,484.25 $4,064,620,655,521.66
FISCAL YEAR 1994 $296,277,764,246.26 $4,411,488,883,139.38
FISCAL YEAR 1995 $332,413,555,030.62 $4,692,749,910,013.32
FISCAL YEAR 1996 $343,955,076,695.15 $4,973,982,900,709.39
FISCAL YEAR 1997 $355,795,834,214.66 $5,224,810,939,135.73

Just a follow-up note on my last post: I do love US companies when it comes to falling revenues. Rarely do you see a press release about falling profits without it also saying at the bottom exactly what the company plans to do in response, usually cutting jobs. Wouldn't you just love to see a press release from the federal government that said that revenues were falling, so they were going to lay off 10000 employees. Wall Street would laugh at a company that, when faced with falling profits, decided to borrow more to fund it's continued operations.

This is also a hotly contested issue in both Washington and New York.

Legislation has been drafted to create a special investigative office at the SEC that would force more stringent disclosure on foreign bond issues. The Chinese communists are the target of the legislation. Seems some on Capitol Hill are a bit concerned about what the PRC may intend to fund with monies received from debt issued in the U.S.

Not expected out of committee until February at the earliest.

Though it is readily apparent that the Chicoms could just fib their way around what they intend, it would nevertheless serve a purpose were they ever accused of applying proceeds of a bond issued in New York to, say,...better target New York?

Superb point with all of those places to the left of the decimal point.
.
Condemning Reagan, along with Bush is a trifle off.
Bush raised spending far more than Raygun did. With the reduction of tax rates under Raygun, the congress was to blame more than Reagan. They had the wherewithal to rein it in.
With Bush, he is it.
I agree that the situation is hopeless. I wish that the Securities and Exchange Commission would give the same scrutiny to the US central gommint budget figures as they intend to hold the private companies to.
Caca to the heveans.

Ravenfire--nice post--this Chinese credit crunch comes at a bad time. Turns out that the country isn't anywhere near meeting its 8% growth goal. Fortunately the dollar collapsed against the yen over the past few months from 146 to 121 ( how come no headlines touting the 17% crash in the dollar! ) keeping the Chinese from devaluing the yuan or it would have gotten really ugly.

Envy--You're right. Revenues will like decrease. The politicians ( I spend two hours/day commuting on the DC beltway listening to their simpering pandering ) will claim that the unforseen and definitely unpreventable Asian/Russian/Brazilian crisis has caused this dip and that they won't be able to make the budget and tax cuts they wanted. ( Or they simply won't say or do anything, there was amazing complicity between the Republicans and Clinton about not mentioning the impact of the world recession on the budget this past election ) . The Treasury will float more bonds. The deficit will increase, and interest rates will rise. And if the bond disaster from a few weeks ago repeats itself in an economic downturn, rates might rise rapidly.

If the gov't follows the advice it has been forcing on the Japanese--cut taxes, boost spending--then expect the budget and federal deficity to explode, Reaganesque-like.

PS. My father is a Deltek systems integrator, but still he generally thinks that Y2K is overblown. Until today. We had a conversation about the IRS possibly not being Y2K compliant. Thinking about the impact, he got very quiet and very serious. If the IRS cannot track its revenues accurately at the same time the Treasury is trying to maintain its payments--social security, paying contractors, federal salaries, bond payments, etc.--we will see either massive inflation as it makes new money fast or default on US debt.

What do others think will happen with the IRS?

White Knight Resources prove up gold in the system although have yet to find economic grades. Still searching for the lower plate structure,which is significant along this trend. Claimstaker announce results on first three shallow holes today and have also proven that they have gold in the system. They also reported what could be lower plate carbonates which if proves to be true they have a good shot at finding ore grade material. Both WKR and CLN have plans to go back drilling for the winter so keep an eye on them. Coral Gold will also be drilling shortly. Still maintain this area known for elephant sized deposits that are cheap to mine will be the next major area play. In fact a major discovery would probably turn the VSE around.

Well, if the only option is eventually to push it into the money supply, the "hidden tax", I wonder what that would do to the dollar. Screw it all up I'm sure. Gold would do well. Hope it never comes to that, but there doesn't seem to be a mechanism in place to check a rising debt, I mean, who on the planet has enough mox to tell the US government no ? Even US tax-payers seem to be at a loss. Seems like a problem w/o a solution, too big to take on by any politician, so it just keeps on going and nobody can stop it. That's what it feels like anyway. Investors are obviously unconcerned, Treasuries are the safest thing in town! At least, to bond investors.

Does anyone know what costs are associated with delivery?
Do you pay for the contract, and get to take delivery?
Are there nominal shipping charges, or, it it like taking delivery on a CD, where the delivery is ten-percent?
bbl

IRS will implement client-server computer technology.
They are the CLIENT and you SERVER them all your money.

I hope that they cannot pay their electric bills.

Well, since I'm a federal employee, I think the joke's on them ( and maybe you ) . Please, keep SERVERing that money.

BTW-Don't hold my federal status against me. I'm DoD ( I think that's constitutionally justifiable ) .

Hasta la Rasta, caballeros. Este chato tiene sueno. Y estoy un poco caliente. ; )

DoD will pull your clearances when they find out you post here % )

http://wire.ap.org/APnews/main.html?PACKAGEID=FEAeuro

Thank goodness, I'm straight! And fortunately, the most right wing association I have is my work as a Boy Scout leader.

Bart, let me know if you get a phone call ; ( ) ) ) )

DoD will pull your clearances when they find out you post here % )

Gift Contributions to Reduce the Public Debt Outstanding

The Bureau of the Public Debt ( Public Debt ) may accept gifts donated to the United States Government to reduce the public debt. Acting for the Secretary of the Treasury, Public Debt may accept a gift of:

1 ) money made only on the condition that it be used to reduce the public debt;

2 ) an outstanding Government obligation made only on the condition that the obligation be retired and the redemption proceeds used to reduce the public debt; and

3 ) real and personal property made only on the condition that the property be sold and the proceeds used to reduce the public debt.

Gifts to reduce the public debt may be inter vivos gifts or testamentary bequests.

The fiscal year amounts represent the total gifts received for a given fiscal year. This includes the months of October through September.

If you would like to make a gift to reduce the public debt outstanding, click here for instructions.

Gift Contributions
Fiscal Year to Date Totals
1998 $1,535,541.02
1997 955,897.15
1996 1,985,175.10
1995 7,344,457.57
1994 20,712,324.20

Last post I'll make about it. I'm sorry I even brought it up because now I kinda feel bad. That we're carrying so much debt annoys me for some reason, I'm not sure why. Kinda makes me feel like my government can't control itself, like it's a child that isn't being responsible. I know it's weird, but I really am bothered by it for some reason.

Everything is relative. By 2005 it will be the Rothschild Shield or the Rockefeller Gallon, either of which will = 100 units/oz of gold. Of course it will take $300 to convert to one unit of either new currency depending on who wins the battle. In the end they will battle for ultimate control, such is the way of shumcks.

Best regards,

Pete

Generally, the Treasury Department believes that individuals fulfill their financial obligation to this country by complying with the tax laws. Any extra measure a citizen wishes to contribute is purely voluntary. The Secretary of the Treasury already has statutory authority to receive gifts for the reduction of the public debt. There is a Treasury account called "Gifts for Reduction of the Public Debt." Established by Public Law 87-58 in 1961, it provides a way for individuals to make voluntary donations for debt reduction. Persons who wish to contribute may send a letter to that effect enclosing their donation to the Bureau of the Public Debt, Department G, Washington, D.C. 20239-0601. Taxpayers may also make contributions by sending a separate check along with Federal income tax payments. In either case, individuals must make the check payable to the Bureau of the Public Debt. Any donations are deductible from taxable income for the year of the donation, subject to any limitations on charitable contributions.

http://www.treas.gov/opc/opc0037.html#quest6

Am I the only one to step on one of those blasted Legos and forget all about the POG!?!?!

Sheeesh, that smarts!

I'am a contrarian first. E-Waves are a way of tracking the what the market may do. The extreme sentiment is what has me bearish as all get out. as far as E-Waves, this may be the 5th wave we are seeing now.

You can see how the debt explodes when Raygun comes on the scene.

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Debt.gif
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Debt2.gif

Erle, you may have a better handle on whether it was congress vs. the president but I don't remember him using his bully pulpit to stop it.

"This indicator has never failed to get us out in time for a major market crash, usually providing at least two weeks advance notice."

Guess there's always a first time.

What did the index do before and after the July/Aug drop? I didn't see any info on that. Do you know?

-EJ

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese stock prices fell in morning trading Wednesday following a drop on Wall Street. The dollar was lower against the yen. The Nikkei Stock Average slid 169.02 points, or 1.11 percent, to 14,995.62 at the end of the morning session. On Tuesday, the index rose 384.70 points, or 2.60 percent, closing above the psychologically important 15,000-point level for the first time since Aug. 25. Share prices retreated Wednesday after the Dow Jones industrial average lost 73.12 points to finish Tuesday's session at 9,301.15. On Monday, the Dow rose 214.72 points, closing at a record high of 9,374.27. Its previous record was 9,337.97 points, set in July. Traders said the Nikkei was taking a breather after gaining about 800 points in the past two trading days.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn03.htm

It worked, it actually gave about two weeks notice before the big drop. It also went back above their "buy" number before the market really took off like a rocket. The market had already fallen a little ways before it gave a sell signal, and it had risen a bit before it gave a buy. One interesting note is that when it gave a sell signal saying that a big drop was on the way, the folks who post the index had a note on there saying that the index might not have known what it was doing, they didn't believe their own index in other words.

I have learned so much from this forum that I hope this gives something even close to what I have gotten from this site. I am posting a chart below ( I hope it works, I haven't done this here before ) that shows the annual S & P Stock Index/Gold ratio going back 198 years, to 1801.

I have studied it for some time and feel confident that others here can provide analysis of what is portrayed better than I. The pink dots you see above and below the line graph are the peak day high or absolute low for the cycle ( bull and bear markets. )

I have analyzed the long term advances and declines in the ratio, and offer the following. ( Naturally, the most recent advance may extend even further, so the numbers will have to be adjusted if ( when? ) that happens.

Advance from 1857 low ( 0.057 ) to 1881 high ( 0.318 ) = 457.9%, or, 7.4% annually
Advance from 1896 low ( 0.184 ) to 1929 high ( 1.547 ) = 740.8%, or, 6.7% annually
Advance from 1942 low ( 0.221 ) to 1968 high ( 2.802 ) = 1167.9%, or 10.3% annually
Advance from 1980 low ( 0.132 ) to 1998 high ( 4.038 ) = 2959.1%, or 20.9% annually
Average advance = 1342.2%, or, 11.3% annually

Decline from 1802 peak ( 0.167 ) to 1857 valley ( 0.057 ) = -65.9%, or -1.9% annually
Decline from 1881 peak ( 0.318 ) to 1896 valley ( 0.184 ) = -42.1%, or, -3.6% annually
Decline from 1929 peak ( 1.547 ) to 1942 valley ( 0.221 ) = -85.7%, or, -13.9% annually
Decline from 1968 peak ( 2.802 ) to 1980 valley ( 0.130 ) = -95.3%, or, -22.5% annually
Average decline = -72.3%, or, -10.5% annually
Where are we now? Today's S&P500/Gold ratio stands at 3.998, just 1.0% below its all-time high of 4.038, recorded on 7/16/98. The average ratio for the first nine months of this year was 3.638-significantly higher than any other peak day in the ratio going back over two centuries.

I can't stay on this forum long right now, so I'll have to read and learn from your reactions and responses later.

Thanks to everyone-especially Bart-for all the great stuff on this site!

Fergie

P.S. I've also put together a graph of real, inflation-adjusted returns for gold and the S&P Stock Index, going back to 1801, too, and will post that soon, as well.

Tovarish Oris -

I am sorry I neglected to mention that it was Almaz covering their palladium shorts

This does put a significant official spin on this info, yes?

I posted some weeks back the JM PGM report would show an increase in platinum demand in 1998. Since 1997 was a record year for consumption, I was calling for new highs in demand.

I was wrong.

JM reported that 1998 platinum use is 40,000 ozers lower than in 1997.

Out of 5,300,000 ounces used this year, I missed the mark by 40K.

This is a measure of accuracy of  of 1%.

Sad that I was not that accurate this summer, but some of my clients already had a nice quickie trade from 337 to 362, and we are now looking to re-enter in the low 340s - if we get there.

JM also predicted a 1 million ounce shortfall in palladium production, this is dire.

Total annual auto catalyst usage is about 4 million ozers.. A 25% shortfall?

Those who worry that the collected and sundry Russians would dump palladium, have not borne close witness to the actions of late. No sales anywhere near the historic highs this spring, although they had ample opportunity to do so. Almaz buying back their shorts at losses ( in crucially needed US dollars ) is further evidence of a meltdown in production capacity.

I don't know who wrote this morning about a cash infusion to rebuild Russian infrastructure, particularly in mining and oil production, but there will be no willing corporate cash entering the Motherland anytime soon. I am sure you will agree that no western company with a shred of common sense would pour billions.nay trillions into a country that is putting communists back in power - this time by popular vote. What company would risk the re-nationalization of entire industries? Thanks for all the help comrades, but the state owns it now..

Did anyone catch Jacques Lubin, President of the Platinum Guild International, on CNBC this morning? They interviewed him about PGMs for about five minutes. I was surprised to see any financial station talking about platinum; it is not a common topic of discussion.

For those that did catch the interview, I have to say the Jacques is not normally that tan. He lives in New York City and travels the world, but the types of meetings he attends are usually held indoors. The healthy and vibrant tan is the same I see in my own face when look in the mirror I do. This is no surprise, since the source was the same. Last time I saw Jacques was on Sunday at the main bar of Grand Lido in Negril, Jamaica. He was hoisting what was called a "Hummingbird" - a particularly innocuous tasting but potent drink of rum and some other stuff blended into an icy froth. This drink had become THE signature drink for the week, and all were rumored to have drunk copious amounts. All but I, preferring a simple mix of  Appleton dark rum to  pineapple juice. This was the tropics after all, so I felt the pineapple juice was a necessary concession; that Appleton stuff is way sweet just poured over ice.

Dave Madge from The Royal Canadian Mint made it down to Negril for the week as well, toting a stunning blonde beauty at his side. Dave, being one of the Canadian types, did not brown nearly as well as the rest of us under the smoldering Caribbean sun. Pink is the color suited to most Canadians I have met. They never do seem to get that golden brown look down, just various shades of pink. This is not to disparage, but those pink northerners do tend to blend right in with the sunsets, and one tends to wonder if their friends have disappeared right before their eyes.

Back to the resort: Grand Lido is an all inclusive resort located on the westernmost tip of Jamaica in the town of Negril - so named by the Spanish for the black eels that swarmed those waters in the 1600s. The eels are gone and what remains is a tranquil paradise that belies the moniker given the glassy bay on which Grand Lido is perched. They called this "Bloody Bay" from the days when whaling boats used the shelter of the harbor to skin their capture, turning the waters bright red in the process.

Grand Lido, in addition to being rated the top resort in all the Atlantic and Caribbean, also has the distinction of being right next door to Hedonism II, the most aptly named place on earth. If one wants to have as much fun as possible, with as few clothes as possible ( read: none ) then one goes to Hedonism. I kayaked around the point and approached it warily from the ocean side. It looked fairly safe and whatever was going on was going on in English, so I counted it a distinct advantage that I was fluent in the native tongue Speaking of which The native tongues are quite spectacular in themselves. I will go into no details of the debauchery I witnessed, nor would I admit to any alleged debauchery in which I may or may not have been engaged This is a family page, after all. Suffice to say that day leads to night which leads to day and nothing there ever stops.

I made a quick stop in a small island a mile or so off the Hedonism II main beach. I had no sooner landed than a Ratsa sort of fella' named Keith ( pronounced, Keet ) sullied up and promptly offered me Ganja and women. I turned down both as both were plentiful on the beach a mile away and who could beat that kind of convenience? Keith told me the island is named Booby Cay but, "We call it Paarty Island, mon". I later found out that the Booby is a particularly slow and dull witted seabird who spends its entire life at sea, only to return to land to lay eggs. It was just a matter of coincidence that the Island was so aptly named, as evidenced by the assorted exposed bosoms of natives and visitors alike. I cannot offer an accurate estimate of the count, but a quick overview told me it would add up to an even number in any counting, and that suited me just fine.

More stuff happened, Cliff diving at Rick's Caf near the lighthouse, snorkeling with a stunning entertainment director, one of twelve, from Hedonism II. I am letting these experiences sink in a bit deeper before committing any of them to written words. The memories are to fresh, some seasoning would give perspective. Kind of like the crocodiles to be found in those climes. They bite their food, they kill their food, but they don't eat it not yet. They take it down under the water and shove it beneath some log or rock and let it soften up for a few days first. MmmmmmmmmMMM! Now THAT'S good eatin'.

Let it instead be known that the Jamaican people I came in contact with were among the most genuinely friendly I have ever met. I quick grew to understand the nature of a Jamaican minute, which bears no resemblance to any sixty second period we have ever experienced; those of us from the West. A Jamaican minute is related to the concept of time in only the most casual manner. One minute flows into two, then ten, then sixty. Has an hour passed? Who cares? We are in Jamaica, mon. I assimilated so well into this mode of timing that I have yet to reach even auxiliary speed since my return. I know I will be at warp speed again soon and I am mourning the inevitable gradual erosion of one of my only true glimpses into leisure, and what that word really means.

Leisure is not taking it easy, or taking it slow. Leisure is thinking easy, and letting it be a slow process. Leisure is pausing to watch the sunset every night because that is the most important thing to do, and any other pursuits can be safely put aside for the half hour or so before the sun touches the water, to the half hour or so after it sinks into the abyss of the far horizon. Leisure is then staying right there, even though the sun has done its sizzle thingy in the ocean, because now is when the stars appear. And that's OK. Leisure is realizing that you are at leisure to do what you please, or to do nothing at all. Leisure is God's gift to the speedy of heart to help them realize that the entire trip, from birth to death, is but a blink and there is a reason indeedy that the air smells so sweet and the colors are so pure and the water is so clear. It is so, just so that we may on occasion, stop the whirlwind and wind down the springs a bit; to realize that our little pale blue dot in this vast ocean of the universe is all we have. But we do not count ourselves poor; pale blue and tiny as our dot is, it is after all, enough.

Indeedy, mon.


PS
Some mention was made this AM regarding the biting of 24k coins to get a tooth mark in it. I had this conversation with Kirsten Peterson of the Austrian Mint last year in Napa. She claimed some new tempering process has made these pure gold coins harder than before. I can't recall the technical details, but we proceeded to test this theory by biting a Phillie - the coin not the horse. I do not recommend this course of action unless one is properly insured against dental disaster. Nary a dent was made in the coin despite numerous gnawings. I have a Phillie on my monitor stand this very moment and, to be properly scientific, as well as well insured dentaly, I will bite this coin and report the results.

Alright.. Nibble.. Gnaw. Incise.. Masticate..

Nope. No dents in this coin. I invite others to try this test on their own pure gold coins. I would be interested to hear if one may bite a gold Maple Leaf with discernable results. I await the outcome of further experiments.

I think I'll take a couple Jamaican minutes to myself to reflect on all this stuff.

I may be awhile

OK

And here is a chart of real, inflation-adjusted returns for gold and the S&P stock index, beginning in 1801.

Hope folks find this helpful.

fergie

Charles Keeling: Thanks I'll look into it.

Are they coming up for others here?

Nice charts! Here, I fixed it for you.

http://ftp.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/SP_indx.gif
http://ftp.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/RL_indx.gif

It just doesn't like spaces in the filenames when you post them.

click on "Add Comment" at the top of this page, and then click on "Click here" in the red box to find them ( I think? ) At least, they came up for me this way.

Thanks, Fergie

How'd you do that?

So if the index at +6 means buy then an index at +10 means, what, buy like hell? Wonder if they believe their index now. Corporate profits falling fast and the market at an all-time high? Hmmmm. Index or no index, I wouldn't wanna be in the market when the US starts bombing Iraq.
-EJ

Fergie: I just uploaded your charts under different names. When you do the upload thing just make the name one word w/o spaces and it'll work okay for ya. Really nice charts.

EJ: My understanding of it is that it's just an "on/off" kinda thing, not a linear measure. Just when it passes that magic number, sell, and when it passes the other number afterwards, it's okay to buy. While it's in the range in between you're just supposed to stay out I think *grin*. I dunno how they come up with it, but I think it's using the A/D line for at least part of what it's doing.

Comrade RJ, always pleasure to talk to you.

Thanks for info on Almaz - this is something that
is really hard for me to believe, particularly
considering recent sales in London...but as your
respectful follower I will gladly shut up on this
subject...you are the pro, not me. We'll watch this
palladium market together, dah?

Thanks. Now I know! What's that saying? Oh, yes, "None of us is as smart as all of us."

Fergie

That's what bill told Monica.

Debt: If a sovereign nation can borrow 100 billion units to put into circulation, would it not be better for that sovereign nation to print 100 billion units to do the same thing and save all the costs of usury?

http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/48.htm
Year 2000 project teams have gotten conflicting advice about real-time clocks from two powerful partners in the PC industry: Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp.

The topic is more than academic for managers who worry that even brand-new PCs might not be fully year 2000-ready [GCN, Oct. 19, Page 1]. At issue is how far they must go in testing their PC hardware to guarantee it will work properly after Jan. 1, 2000. Some operating systems, including Microsoft Windows NT, consult the real-time clock rather than the PC BIOS for time and date information.

Microsoft has warned users that its NT operating systems will not function properly after Jan. 1, 2000, if not installed on hardware with a year 2000-ready real-time clock.

Windows NT is not the only operating system that accesses the real-time clock memory directly rather than indirectly through the BIOS. Novell NetWare, IBM OS/2 and other operating systems also do so, as do many applications.
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FAA pulls tracking app from two radar centers
http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/3.htm

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Nuclear systems could crash in 2000, study says
http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/6.htm

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Agencies face decision on year 2000: Fix or cut bait
http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/1a.htm


Got gold, grub and generators???