Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:02 - ID#255284)
Cruising the bars......
Earlier this past spin, you asked about re-assaying Englehardt bars prior to sale. Every large refiner/dealer will recognise the major refinery bars like JM & Englehardt and WILL NOT charge an assaying charge on a bar/slab with the refiner's name, the Weight & Purity on it. No Charge. These bars should be available at slightly less than the 9999 coins ( Maples. Phillies & Kiwis ) because the slabs are ugly mothers in comparison, and they haven't been minted. I have bulk JM 9999 bars for this very reason. I could walk into a JM outlet in Bangkok, Adis Ababa or Austin Tx ( if they have 'em there ) and would get spot price of gold no questions asked and no assaying charges.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:03 - ID#411259)
..... Oris .....



(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:05 - ID#303229)
198 years of S&P Stock Index/Gold Ratio--a repost with working chart
I have learned so much from this forum that I hope this gives something even close to what I have gotten from this site. I am posting a chart below ( I hope it works, I haven't done this here before ) that shows the annual S & P Stock Index/Gold ratio going back 198 years, to 1801.

I have studied it for some time and feel confident that others here can provide analysis of what is portrayed better than I. The pink dots you see above and below the line graph are the peak day high or absolute low for the cycle ( bull and bear markets. )

I have analyzed the long term advances and declines in the ratio, and offer the following. ( Naturally, the most recent advance may extend even further, so the numbers will have to be adjusted if ( when? ) that happens.

Advance from 1857 low ( 0.057 ) to 1881 high ( 0.318 ) = 457.9%, or, 7.4% annually
Advance from 1896 low ( 0.184 ) to 1929 high ( 1.547 ) = 740.8%, or, 6.7% annually
Advance from 1942 low ( 0.221 ) to 1968 high ( 2.802 ) = 1167.9%, or 10.3% annually
Advance from 1980 low ( 0.132 ) to 1998 high ( 4.038 ) = 2959.1%, or 20.9% annually
Average advance = 1342.2%, or, 11.3% annually

Decline from 1802 peak ( 0.167 ) to 1857 valley ( 0.057 ) = -65.9%, or -1.9% annually
Decline from 1881 peak ( 0.318 ) to 1896 valley ( 0.184 ) = -42.1%, or, -3.6% annually
Decline from 1929 peak ( 1.547 ) to 1942 valley ( 0.221 ) = -85.7%, or, -13.9% annually
Decline from 1968 peak ( 2.802 ) to 1980 valley ( 0.130 ) = -95.3%, or, -22.5% annually
Average decline = -72.3%, or, -10.5% annually

Where are we now? Today's S&P500/Gold ratio stands at 3.998, just 1.0% below its all-time high of 4.038, recorded on 7/16/98. The average ratio for the first nine months of this year was 3.638-significantly higher than any other peak day in the ratio going back over two centuries.

I can't stay on this forum long right now, so I'll have to read and learn from your reactions and responses later.

Thanks to everyone-especially Bart-for all the great stuff on this site!


P.S. I've also put together a graph of real, inflation-adjusted returns for gold and the S&P Stock Index, going back to 1801, too, and will post that soon, as well.

P.P.S. Donald, what do you think?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:08 - ID#286230)
close but no cigar. the Mytrack file is very large. Probably take all night to download it. I doubt the ISP will hang around that long.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:08 - ID#303229)
And here's a working chart depicting 198 years of real returns of gold and...
the S&P stock index.

Thanks for your patience.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:12 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Well, asking the same basic question every couple months or so hasn't ever garnered a response. Perhaps every ten or 15 minutes might. Play it again Sam.

Debt: If a sovereign nation can borrow 100 billion units to put into circulation, would it not be better for that sovereign nation to print 100 billion units to do the same thing and save all the costs of usury?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:14 - ID#190411)
What, with the slow trades coming up this morning,
what do you say? Shall we have gold on sale today?
It's so easy to smash the POG today, that I encourage the bottom feeders to be ready for an extraordinary deal, courtesy of our short friends.
There is no need to hurry toward that gold window, there'll be enough for all of us.
Stocks may be discounted tomorrow, also.
Holidays are such good bargain days, aren't they?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:20 - ID#284255)
MAC Y2k checkup.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:31 - ID#226299)
@the scene?
Perhaps nobody is home? Perhaps it might cause someone to extract some actual thought? What's the problem. The question too damn simple or can one not even imagine a government ( the people ) not having to have a national debt?

Debt: If a sovereign nation can borrow 100 billion units to put into circulation, would it not be better for that sovereign nation to print 100 billion units to do the same thing and save all the costs of usury?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:32 - ID#255284)
When you have nothing to wear but sugarbags, you are grateful for them
First we recognise as lurkers, that we owe a debt of gratitude to the posters for our education, next we start to post the results of our researches in an attempt to say thank you for the learnin', pretty soon we find we are learning even more by participating. That's kitco and its best. Good to have you around.

You must send me your address, or that of a good dentist. My teeth are in tatters ( not taters, Spudman-- where he? ) and I have little auracious toothmarks in two gold kiwis from two different mints. One, the Auckland Coin & Bullion Exchange, dated 1986, was this before the process you are talking about. The other from the NZ Mint.
The AC&B collapsed in a rather well-worn fraud in 1988...they issued more gold certificates than they held gold....the punters/sheeps lost it all and only the banks were repaid. My AC&B kiwis are therefore rather rare....and the unbitten ones have just become rarer :- )

sharefin & Dad
We had a small power cut today ( well two actually ) . I went to the Westpac ATM, it flashed this message at me:

"I'm feeling a bit crook.
Please find another ATM"

Just bought "The Sugarbag Years".......Thanks.

I have mentioned previously, The Great Depression in NZ started, most say, by 1926. Your Wall St Crash in '29, didn't make things any better, but it wasn't the cause of NZ's Great Depression. The cause was simply falling Primary Produce Prices.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:35 - ID#254288)
Eldorado, Pete

Eldorado: Best they print gold and silver certificates and use them to buy gold and silver from the producers, who'll pay wages to their employees in this quality money.
Sought of like the Sterling Way. You know the Sterling TV Ad.

"Give people quality faucets and they'll come back and buy your sinks,............"

Give people quality money and when we go into a currency situation, they'll come back and exchange them for the real McCoy.

Pete: you're on a roll tonite.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:39 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Jack -- What's that got to do with a government forking over usury payments forever?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:44 - ID#284255)
Good luck to you for finding the book.
Is it second hand or are they reprinting it.

As for your ATM
At least they have a sense of humour ( :- ) ) )

Same thing up here re the powercuts.
Must be a lot of testing going on.

Safeguarding Stocks From the Y2K Bug,3666,2140300,00.html

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:45 - ID#390275)
Why money is borrowed and not printed.
Eldorado, The Federal Reserve banks are privately owned. Now if the money were printed and not borrowed some very special people would not be able to charge interest on that money.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:48 - ID#190411)
Printing the "money" only feeds those at the top of the fiat chain.
The gommint, and their parasites get the hot money first.
At the nether areas, populated by the manufactureres, and, even lower yet, are the savers, who essentially pay all of the interest that the gommint foregoes by printing fiat.
It is a scheme that has never worked.
The only inflation scheme that has ever made any sense ( in the modern way ) is Dines proposal to inflate the money supply at a fixed rate that is known to all. The central gommint increases the money suppy by ten per-cent per year. They must use this to pay all of their bills, and are allowed no more inflation other than the year start amount.
With this, you can get a rate of currency depreciation that can be compared to economic activity that is somewhat predictable.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:49 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Gene -- No doubt. But it still doesn't answer the question why a sovereign nation 'needs' to borrow.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:51 - ID#255284)
Please have a look at Fergie's charts, especially
As I am sometimes quite dysleksick, I wonder if you can explain the significance of the difference between your presentation of Gold:Dow and Fergie's. TIA.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:51 - ID#190411)
OTOH, there is the gold standard.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:54 - ID#386245)
Love those charts of yours. Thanks for taking the time and effort to post. They demonstrate very well that what goes up must eventually come down, and vice versa. S & P is UP and gold is DOWN. Wonder what comes next??

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:55 - ID#190411)
Gommint borrows because they create nothing. Either they tax at current expenses, or they borrow, because they cannot tax enough in the present.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:56 - ID#226299)
@the scene
ERLE -- How 'bout they collect their taxes in one year and can't spend it until the following year, and no more can they spend without printing ( not borrowing ) . NO more guess work on the revenues! Beyond that, they could be allowed to adjust the monetary supply in proportion to the population growth, either by reducing taxes to keep the money in circulation longer, or by expanding the supply of it, or a combination thereof.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 00:59 - ID#255284)
Both! I fell into one of my favourite rare book shops today ( One reason I pay particular attention to this crient, his office has 3 vv good 2nd hand bookshops within a cooee ) and saw several copies of Sugarbag years. 2 were 1st editions ( I bagged one ) 2 more were later editions, and 1 was a smaller New Edition.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:05 - ID#254288)

I've always said we should dump the FED, even go so far as paying off the internal US debt in a determined, but slow and equitable manner to remove the userurious burden placed on the taxpayer.
I'm sure that there are people who can steer the course to achieve such an end. By the way, where's Viessere ( sp ) , he was very insightful.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:07 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Another 'poser'. Since a nations currency is made for ITS populace, NO governments' currency should be found outside of its national boundaries. ALL foreign transactions take place through a common transnational medium of exchange ( like gold, or even goods-for-goods/barter ) at both borders. Let's see what kind of 'discussion' this generates.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:11 - ID#219363)
It's been done before. Governments throughout history have debased their currencies by pushes their debt into the money supply. That's why they call it the "hidden tax", because it quietly steals value from people by devaluing the currency they use to do business. Better to keep the books straight and borrow against future revenues, even if it does show a big debt on the books, than destroy the currency. Any way you look at it we pay. We can either pay with strong dollars through higher taxes and repay the loans, or we can pay by having the currency we hold lose half it's value. Any way you look at it, we pay, ain't no free lunch.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:14 - ID#226327)
I tried a couple of Canadian quotes ( like MIQ.M ) and couldn't get any results from Mytrack.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:17 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Jack -- Getting rid of the fed is simple. Just have congress enact legislation to purchase it for less than one half billion dollars ( if memory serves ) . The right for congress to do so has always been there. In and of itself, I don't think that will alleviate the debt though. probably quite a chunk of it maybe.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:18 - ID#411259)
..... Righty O .....

Oris -

I do not know who was selling in London today.
I no longer trade palladium after those heady days in the summer of '97.
When the markets moved whenever I bought or sold
The spreads have increased with the lease rates,
And the metal is just too damn volatile
It will make you rich or wipe you out in a day
What is bullish for palladium is OK for platinum
And the course is surer and less fraught with peril
The Almaz thingy is real, more Rooskie shenanigans, dah?
We must remember how well they have learned
To move markets by Press Release alone
Could it be they are recouping losses
By announcing impending massive shipments
Only to drive the price from its recent high
So they can buy it all back?
Look for the next announcement to be one of caution
Shipments may not resume immediately
And contract negotiations have bogged down
This has been the pattern

I have learned much of the mindset of these crafty folks
By following your words of wisdom and experience
If you have info to contradict, please put forth
I consider you an excellent, if anonymous, source of good stuff


Salty -

Sorry to hear about the tooth tarter
A good swift brushing with gold bars should clear that up
And show the world your pearly whites
Poised to chomp on some noble stuff
Don't have a clue on how they make the stuff harder
Unless I am a great fool
And am trying to bite a gold colored tin coin
In which case, I want my money back
I know bars are soft, a fingernail will make the mark
But bars are bulky and only institutional buyers buy 'em
Also even indeedy and so much the same so
Remember those bars are reportable in the US of A
So your dealer in Austin, TX would report the sale
To our own Federal Government - not yours
Have found coins to be cheaper
And vastly more liquid in the long run
But who holds gold for the long run
Buy and sell, yes?


You should just keep the unbitten bars
Please forward bitten bars to me
I may find some use for them


Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:19 - ID#430221)
YES. I believe that is the answer to your question. Whether it is
a bond or currency it is still a debt. Therefore, it is cheaper for the
Fed to buy bonds and print currency thereby relieving the nation of
interest payments.

But what can you do with currency except spend it. So inflation which
was there all along becomes apparent to all concerned and they get
rid of the currency.

Can you imagin 5 trillion dollars floating around in bills? The mind

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:24 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- You talk about destruction. HAR! And usury isn't? Either a nation is sovereign in its right to 'coin money and regulate the value thereof', or it is just a machine of the 'brokers of power'. I take it you would not only enjoy paying back principle, but all the interest placed theron by those 'lenders'. Those lenders that were not necessary in the first place, for if it is all based on promise-to-pay, then pay the government back through taxes to simply remove the excess back out of circulation. With interest/debt-based money, they HAVE TO continually put MORE and MORE into circulation in order to KEEP UP the payments. You ever wonder why you and yours have to run faster and faster to keep pace? Higher and higher debt payments on usury-based debt! THAT'S WHY.....

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:26 - ID#190411)
Eldorado, That's what is so simple and elegant about
the gold standard. The gold is good any place on earth, and it is the property of the owner.
It doesn't allow for the machinations of a government.
If you pee away your country's wealth, you lose your gold. The financial consequences are a deterrent to profligacy.
Morpheus says "Happy trails".

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:30 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Gold Dancer -- What is mind boggling is to pay some bond holders 5.5 trillion dollars. Wonder what they'll do with it. Buy the next batch of usury bearing bonds, with promise-to-pay by you and yours?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:32 - ID#255284)
i echo your sentiments re oris. His, and other one time residents of the former USSR have taught us much of the blind/ double-blind illusions of the country. I shall never think of them again without thinking that most of the USSR armaments of the nuclear age were illusory. SO good that the USA built a SDDI Star Wars project on the USSR-fostered illusion that they actually had a new series of weapons.

Bars are very soft. Is it the minting/stamping process responsible for hardening the metal, like, by compression?
Glad to see there is a repositary for my useless tooth-marked gold coins... He He

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:33 - ID#430221)
More and more debt HAS to be issued or the system will collapse.
So it is the money system which runs the country. The Rothchilds know
this and they and the rest of the bankers think they can get away with
this forever. We will see. So far they have.

The banking system is here to stay until the population demands a
change. So far the American people are enjoying the credit party.
It might mean a hell of a hangover but we gold investors are the ones
with the hangover right now!!!!!

There are better ways to run a money system. This one is destroing
that world except for one thing. When it all goes up in smoke the
buildings, houses and cars will still be here. Then we start over.
But not until everything is turned upside down. It has never happened
anyother way before and it won't this time.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:40 - ID#254288)

What I mean to say is that there would have to be an
equitable plan to pay off the existing T-bills, bonds
etc., this would probably take years; as that money comes out of Government debt it could/would aid industry,but some very sharp statesmen would be needed to see that it goes smoothly.

Foreign held treasuries would be a problem area.

I think that an internally gold exchangeable currency would provide confidence.

Your 1:07 would be the road to sovereinty for all nations. I would love to see hedge fund managers and the financial rocket scientists flipping hamburgers.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:41 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Gold Dancer -- Yes, more and more debt MUST be issued or the system collapses. So much for debt/usury-based systems. They ALL follow that course 'cause there is no way out. Higher and higher piles of debt to pay off debt, to pay off debt, to pay off debt, ad nauseum. Finally there is no more to be had. That's what has caused most civilizations to collapse.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:45 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Haven't seen any response to my 'a nations currency is never to be found outside the nation' posting.

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:47 - ID#430221)
If the government turned the debt into currency it would effectively
end the debt obligation. What would the holders do with the cash?
They could only get the same cash back from the government or buy
services from the government. The rest they would save under the matress
or spend. The spending on goods would raise the price of goods to the
level of the currency. When equilibrium is reached the debt ends.

What happens of course is at some point in time people won't accept
the currency so it becomes worthless and the owners of the real goods
are the winners. They can then accept real money for that which they
own. Sounds simple. But in Germany it wasn't. It was ugly.

I have no idea what is going to happen. All I know is that the govenment
is not going to be "fair" except to itself. Unless things get out of
control and the govenment is overturned they will do what they do best:
screw the worker and middle class and save the rich and powerful.

Go Gold. Soon we all hope. GD

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:51 - ID#219363)
I kinda see where this is going. Do I want a usury based system over a gold backed currency ? Honestly, I don't care. As long as the currency in my pocket keeps it's value, I honestly don't care. A lot of bad things can be said about fiat currencies, they aren't "real", etc, and they can be debased through any number of methods, the most simple being to fire up the presses and hand it out on the street corner. But gold backing has it's problems too. Question really is do I want the government to control the amount of currency in circulation or do I want miners and their mining technology to control the amount of currency in circulation. I don't care. As long as it's stable, I don't care. If I start to sense that the government is putting too much into circulation, I'll buy gold. If I start to sense that miners have discovered a new way to find gold and it's going to flood the market, I'll buy dollars with my gold. If I start to sense that foreign investors are going to dump their dollars back on our shores, I'll buy gold. If I start to sense that CB's are going to dump gold on the markets, I'll buy dollars. If I start to sense that everyone wants Swiss Francs and there aren't going to be enough of them, I'll buy Swiss Francs and sell them later. I just don't want whatever I'm holding to lose value, and prefer that it gain value.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 01:52 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Jack -- After the 'system' collapses from its own debt burden, they won't get paid back anyway. Ask a Russian bond holder how they did lately.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:00 - ID#219363)
My gold money hasn't been doing nearly as well as my dollar money.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:01 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- I ain't even talkin' about a gold-based unit of conversion ( intra-country ) ! I'm talking about debt-based currency vs. a non-debt-based currency. You don't see the distinction? You want a currency that holds its value and does not depreciate. You have NO chance of that occurring with an interest charge attached to your nations currency. NONE! You DO have that possibility under a non-debt-based system. Takes some care from your elected 'folks'. But at least if they need a couple billion dollars more, they DON'T need to print a FEW billion more, and then a 'FEW' billion more after that.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:06 - ID#386245)
A few comments
Crystal@Ball--Your letter to Dad 'made my day'. It has been saved as an all-time Kitco best. How fortunate you are to still have a dad.

Who@Cares--move to N.Z. or Oz for that matter. Making the decision is the easy part. Getting through the immigration barriers would test the most persistent of goldbugs. It can, however, be done.

Aura@H20--those water containers from pubs ( ex whiskey etc. ) are fantastic. They hold 20 liters here and I've got a stack of them. Also 'free' which makes it even nicer!!

R@J--have you ever played chess with a Russian?? I wouln't be the least bit surprised if they weren't buying and selling the same platinum after their press announcements. 1 ) Make an announcement about delivery/glut-- ( buy ) . 2 ) Make an announcement about mine problems/no delivery--wait for price to go up--then ( sell ) the stuff they bought after the first announcement. Bet those Jamaican girls are missing their metal dealer!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:07 - ID#219363)
I'm not sure I follow. Is it the fact that someone has to borrow the money from the FED to create new money, is that what you're getting at ? I'm not sure I see a better way to put it into circulation, I mean, I guess every newly born baby could be given a lifetime allowance, but otherwise I'm not sure.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:09 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Your gold money hasn't been doing as good as your paper money? It won't. Not until the various scenarios come and roost as they have in Asia, Brazil, Russia, etc. Just because WE are the reserve currency AND the buyer of goods of last resort doesn't make our debt system immune. Actually, QUITE the opposite. Don't stand too close to that smoke emmanating from that huge pile of 'leaves'.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:10 - ID#386245)
Make that palladium. Probably goes for platinum as well.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:11 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- If YOU and I, as sovereign entities, could print money, would you borrow an amount from me?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:12 - ID#254288)

Under the assumption that we do not have a collapse, banks might still lend for mortgages or other purchases, but limits could be set on maximum interest charged

"Say any interst charge above x% and the borrower is home free."

Banks can probably adjust to such a situation. Corporations could still issue bonds and preferreds.

Just the government and by proxy, the taxpayer will be free of subsidising the financial elite with payments on the national currency.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:15 - ID#255284)
My biggest concerns about those 20l plastic containers is how many taps to buy. I have 3 currently. The real good thing about these containers is that they are quite transportable.
Have you had a bite out of a nugget? I thought I'd wait for you to "sample" "A Welcome Stranger." ( heh heh )

Am looking to turn my gold kiwis with the bite marks into gold crowns, now that I've got no teef left.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:15 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Let us not even use the term 'print'. 'Coin' has a much more positive connotation.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:16 - ID#413109)
FERGIE Long Term Charts
Many thanks for the charts.
If you have more of the same sort of thing for others
email or post ( )

Believe we are headed to 11-12000 on th Dow and also
think this will happen within the period of now and
spring '99. Don't ask me what happened, that a gold-bug
suddenly, at these ridiculous levels sees things like this
it's wild. JUST WILD.

Also see Gold continuing to base and still very bullish long term
all, of course IMVHO

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:17 - ID#219363)
Depends on what I could buy with it. How much are you planning to print, and who uses it to trade goods and services ? What kind of interest are you charging ? *grin*.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:17 - ID#285392)
Aurator--If you are looking for rare books try antiquarian site they have several million antiquarian books on line. They are affiliated with Barnes and Noble. Excellent sourc.
Good Luck

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:18 - ID#386245)
Globex bubble gum...
...down slightly at this time. Currencies vs US paper--up.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:19 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Jack -- It doesn't matter how little they charge in usury. The outcome WILL be the same. And let us not confuse a nations financing with a contractual agreement of a person/corporation with another entity.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:20 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- I'll wind up charging you most everything you will ever produce. But I'll start easy.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:22 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Now, after saying that, wouldn't you rather coin your own?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:24 - ID#219363)
If I can borrow a hundred Eldobucks from you and use them to pay Sam to help me build my house, and he can use them to pay Anne to bake him a cake, and she can use them to pay Ron to fix her car, and he uses them to pay me for some bird seed, and I turn around and give them to you with a basket of cotton for interest, I'm okay with it. Thanks for printing up some money.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:26 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- What's the matter, don't like your own coinage?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:27 - ID#386245)
Yair, mate. Just try carrying those 20 liter containers and putting them under the house ( while bending over ) !! My back still hurts after an hour of that the other day. I am also going to use them to brew beer--just the right size!! I've only got one tap ( so far ) . The water has only gone off once in the 9 years I've been in this house. Backhoe broke the pipe up the street. If you've got water, you can survive just about anything else for a time. Wouldn't want to be on the 20th floor on Park Avenue in Jan. 2000. BBL.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:31 - ID#219363)
I'm not in the money printing business, you are. : ) You be the bank. I'll warn you now though, get out of hand printing up money and I'm not going to use it anymore. Also, if people start hoarding your money and not spending it, it's going to be deflationary. Also, if they suddenly decide to spend it all at once it isn't going to be worth anything, and I'm not going to use it. Etc, etc. It ain't an easy job, you deserve the lousy cotton for doing it.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:33 - ID#255284)
Many thanks. I am not a 'collector' more a reader. But I used your URL to find a long out of print book for a good friend, a book she has been looking for for many years, and there it was! At that URL She will be most grateful to you. Indeedy.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:35 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Better go back a few posts. I think you've missed the point.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:36 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Go back to 02:11 post. Then simply answer that.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:37 - ID#93135)
Sorry--this is loooong, but thought you'd like to know, they HAVE PROBLEMS
You can see, by checking the $ DIFF ( which is merely the price of gold in each currency subtracted from the price of platinum in each currency and converted into $ at the exchange rate on the particular day in question ) the 16th, 17th and 18th -to provide a three day example-were as tacky as I've seen it [thus far]. And then something interesting happened: the SDR disappeared Friday [unless it is a holiday somewhere?] and when it came back, rested and flushed with success, the problem had abated somewhat. Things seem to be back in line.of course platinum took a cut...and some other strange things are happening...about which more later. Goodnight all. {:- )
( 1 )
CNY XPT-XAU = 440.380
CNY $ DIFF = $53.198
CNY XAU/XPT = 0.847345
CNY XAG/XAU = 0.016864
CNY XAG/XPT = 0.014290
( 2 )
DEM XPT-XAU = 88.775
DEM $ DIFF = $53.203
DEM XAU/XPT = 0.847346
DEM XAG/XAU = 0.016864
DEM XAG/XPT = 0.014290
( 3 )
XEU XPT-XAU = 43.241
XEU $ DIFF = $51.024
XEU XAU/XPT = 0.852765
XEU XAG/XAU = 0.016864
XEU XAG/XPT = 0.014381
( 4 )
USD XPT-XAU = 51.200
USD Delta = $51.200
USD XAU/XPT = 0.852237
USD XAG/XAU = 0.016864
USD XAG/XPT = 0.014372
( 5 )
SDR XPT-XAU = 40.96
SDR $ DIFF = $57.139
SDR XAU/XPT = 0.837666
SDR XAG/XAU = 0.0171603
SDR XAG/XPT = 0.0143746
( 6 )
JPY XPT-XAU = 6466.5
JPY $ DIFF = $53.200
JPY XAU/XPT = 0.847345
JPY XAG/XAU = 0.0168642
JPY XAG/XPT = 0.0142898

Monday, November 16, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 0.8522 Platinum ( oz. )
1 Platinum ( oz. ) ( XPT ) = 1.1734 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 0.8459 / 0.8522 ( bid/ask ) .
Monday, November 16, 1998
1 Silver ( oz. ) = 0.01689 Gold ( oz. )
1 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU ) = 59.2066 Silver ( oz. ) ( XAG )
Median price was 0.01676 / 0.01689 ( bid/ask ) .
Monday, November 16, 1998
1 Silver ( oz. ) = 0.01437 Platinum ( oz. )
1 Platinum ( oz. ) ( XPT ) = 69.5894 Silver ( oz. ) ( XAG )
Median price was 0.01420 / 0.01437 ( bid/ask ) .
( 1 )
CNY XPT-XAU = 455.280
CNY $ DIFF = $54.998
CNY XAU/XPT = 0.842632
CNY XAG/XAU = 0.016876
CNY XAG/XPT = 0.014220
( 2 )
DEM XPT-XAU = 91.663
DEM $ DIFF = $54.998
DEM XAU/XPT = 0.842632
DEM XAG/XAU = 0.016876
DEM XAG/XPT = 0.014220
( 3 )
XEU XPT-XAU = 44.624
XEU $ DIFF = $52.741
XEU XAU/XPT = 0.848234
XEU XAG/XAU = 0.016755
XEU XAG/XPT = 0.014212
( 4 )
USD XPT-XAU = 52.964
USD Delta = $52.964
USD XAU/XPT = 0.847570
USD XAG/XAU = 0.016876
USD XAG/XPT = 0.014304
( 5 )
SDR XPT-XAU = 39.44
SDR $ DIFF = $55.110
SDR XAU/XPT = 0.842050
SDR XAG/XAU = 0.0169172
SDR XAG/XPT = 0.0142451
( 6 )
JPY XPT-XAU = 6635.8
JPY $ DIFF = $54.998
JPY XAU/XPT = 0.842631
JPY XAG/XAU = 0.0168761
JPY XAG/XPT = 0.0142203

( 1 )
CNY XPT-XAU = 468.530
CNY $ DIFF = $56.598
CNY XAU/XPT = 0.840022
CNY XAG/XAU = 0.016824
CNY XAG/XPT = 0.014132
( 2 )
DEM XPT-XAU = 94.408
DEM $ DIFF = $56.598
DEM XAU/XPT = 0.840024
DEM XAG/XAU = 0.016824
DEM XAG/XPT = 0.014132
( 3 )
XEU XPT-XAU = 46.076
XEU $ DIFF = $54.356
XEU XAU/XPT = 0.845507
XEU XAG/XAU = 0.016705
XEU XAG/XPT = 0.014124
( 4 )
USD XPT-XAU = 54.541
USD Delta = $54.541
USD XAU/XPT = 0.844940
USD XAG/XAU = 0.016824
USD XAG/XPT = 0.014215
( 5 )
SDR XPT-XAU = 40.05
SDR $ DIFF = $55.906
SDR XAU/XPT = 0.841361
SDR XAG/XAU = 0.0168636
SDR XAG/XPT = 0.0141884
( 6 )
JPY XPT-XAU = 6869
JPY $ DIFF = $56.601
JPY XAU/XPT = 0.840022
JPY XAG/XAU = 0.0168237
JPY XAG/XPT = 0.0141323

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:40 - ID#255284)
Under optimum conditions, can *survive* without water for a maximum of 5 days. Fewer if factor in exposure, heat, injury, stress. Of course, the quality of life in those 5 days is far below our 1990's fin-de-sicle expectations. At an ordinary maintenance/replacement level we need about ?3? litres/day. I've heard several different minimum quantities.. does anyone know?

Barring injury, water is the main limiting factor of life.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:43 - ID#219363)
I don't know how else to answer it, it just depends. You Eldorado ? No, because I can't spend your money. : ) Nobody is going to take a note that says Eldobucks on it. *grin* You as a nation ? Probably. I'm still not seeing your point, I am trying to.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:53 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Don't know at this time how to make the concept any clearer. Basically, if you don't need to borrow money, why would you.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:54 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Another 'poser'. Since a nations currency is made for ITS populace, NO governments' currency should be found outside of its national boundaries. ALL foreign transactions take place through a common transnational medium of exchange ( like gold, or even goods-for-goods/barter ) at both borders. Let's see what kind of 'discussion' this generates.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 02:59 - ID#219363)
Unfortunately I'm going to have to crash out soon, this is interesting. To answer your question, in the case of the Federal Reserve, I'd rather borrow the money than not. The reason is that someone has to control the amount of cash in circulation, and that takes man-power and resources, printing presses, computer systems, etc. Banking is a business. If they aren't charging a fee for the use of their tokens, then they're going to have to be funded by a different method, probably by the government, which just means I'll end up paying the cost through taxes. I'd rather pay the interest on the money.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:09 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Usury is serfdom, and I guess the major part of the serfs will never see what they are or how they came to that estate. Probably no surprise, as countries heads-of-state don't either.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:16 - ID#226299)
@the scene
I guess, once again, that I get no rational answer to my question tonight. That, once again is:
If a sovereign nation can borrow 100 billion units to put into circulation, would it not be better for that sovereign nation to print 100 billion units to do the same thing and save all the costs of usury?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:36 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Re, your 2:24; As far as you paying me back with interest being paid with a basket of cotton, sorry, but interest has to be paid in Eldobucks. Guess you have to continue to borrow from me to pay the interest, again, and again, and again..............................Ad infinitum. Enjoy.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:42 - ID#372214)
back and forty
we have a back and forth. seems like a trading range. take advantage of it. lets make some money of it.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:49 - ID#153110)
@Debt, Public & National @Eldorado
"4 The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."

The above is from the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, a martial law amendment imposed by force of arms.

@Eldorado Borrowing units and printing units are not the same thing. Borrowing proceeds against security. The security for the public debt of the United States is the land, vehicles, and labor of the territory and population subject to the jurisdiction of the United States.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:54 - ID#226299)
@the scene
Envy -- Guess you could counterfeit some Eldodollars to pay me back with. I wouldn't like it, but you might get yourself out of my debt with it if you wern't caught. Outside of defaulting, whereas I would gain at least some part of your property, unless you have a bigger or more powerful armed force than I do, those would be about the only ways out of your debt to me.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:57 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- So, who wants borrowing, except for a 'few' about here and there. Not I.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 03:58 - ID#153110)
@On Who Is Subject to the jurisdiction of the United States
Anybody they can drag in front of a federal judge and commence process on. Don't believe it ? Ask Manuel Noriega and the Mexicans kidnapped over the border.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Tuesday's Gold & Silver Lease rates
For Tuesday 24 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.22---------------4.19-------------3.83-----------------3.53
Gold Lease Rate---0.81---------------1.06-------------1.29-----------------1.59
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.02 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ----------- ( + 0.01 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.35--------------3.50-------------2.70-----------------2.40
Silver Lease Rate---0.68--------------1.75--------------2.42-----------------2.72
( Change ) ------ ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ----------- ( + 0.03 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:03 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- Guess the banksters got tired of him. Gettin' too big for his Masters given britches perhaps?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:06 - ID#372214)
maybe it is so
this baby is dead. trade the streams.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:08 - ID#252391)
testing this new computer
Silverbaron got a new look at the Eron/Gold chart. The breakout looks more like a squirt to the side.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:10 - ID#153110)
@the buildings, land, and cars will still be here
But, who has the right to title of them ? Not you.
You live in a country in which you have only a possessory right to your money ( if it ain't in your hands or pockets, you don't possess it; think about all them little digital digits in that light if you can ) ; you own only a right to use in your car and land and buildings. Don't believe it ? Don't pay your right to use fee and see what happens. You retain from your labor and dividends only what is not withheld or collected at the source.

Should government worry about debt ? I don't know why.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:19 - ID#372214)
complicated maybe too much
now to the end of year we wait. trading range. play it.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:20 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- Know of any countries/islands that don't 'operate' in that 'rent' mode?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:27 - ID#153110)
@Paying The National Debt
The money of the United States is nothing but credit, which is but somebody's debt. You can't pay debt with debt. Why is that so hard for people to understand ? Demonstrate it to yourself with two credit cards if you can't think it through.

Look at a Federal Reserve Note. On it are the words THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. The United States of America is an entity defined as an agency of the United States, a government. The full faith and credit of the United States are the security for the borrowing of THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. The fiscal agent of the United States is the Federal Reserve System. One agent is lending to another. Smoke and mirrors understates this scheme. It is fraud from top to bottom. But, legal.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:34 - ID#372214)
eurpean banks holidays
european banks on holidays in dec no action on gold bullion. tuff time to get gold momentum.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:38 - ID#153110)
@Eldorado @Fraud
Probably Switzerland. Definitely, the nation south of British North America before 1933.

Fraud vitiates all. Even judgements. This from the Unites States Supreme Court. But "Silence is consent is the rule of commerce." OFFICIAL BUSINESS is what THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is all about. If I pay you with an onion and you don't object, your silence is consent. If I pay you with dishonored notes and you don't object, your silence is consent. If I pay you with IOU's to which you are neither payer nor payee, your silence is consent.

On another topic, if I present your check for deposit or cash at your bank and they demand my fingerprint to cash it, your check is dishonored.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:49 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- Funny how 'positive' court cases don't vitiate the fraud for all. Seems that everyone each has to do it all over for themselves. Why is that?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:57 - ID#333126)
news from outside the bubble
on Internet stock mania

loan and share defaults in Taiwan

(Wed Nov 25 1998 04:58 - ID#153110)
It's because you are a man.

BTW, the noun word "individual" in America means artificial person. There are two types of artificial persons in America. Individuals and corporations. The Individual Income Tax means "Artificial Person" Income Tax.

All the politicians know this. When they say, "I stand for individuals being responsible", they don't mean what you hear.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:00 - ID#372214)
maniacs put 40+billion into stock market last month. do not stand in front of this train. no percentage.30xearnings on S/p.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:10 - ID#226299)
@the scene
mozel -- So, does the corporate United States have some encyclopedeia of new definitions of words? Else, how many years does it take to learn their dafynitions, and how/where.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:14 - ID#290456)

I don't want to start this thread again, but found this last night & thought you might want to see it ( if you haven't already ) :

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:17 - ID#290456)

New puter, eh? A sideways move is sort of what I expected ( at first ) . If gold is where is being controlled and is where they want it, it will stay there for a while I think - perhaps until January.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:29 - ID#372214)
when the money runs out say after tax season maybe march or april then maybe the goldbugs can make abuck,or if eu has a bust out. cant get along want to print more money after asterity.rember they are democratic communist. spend spend spend!!!!!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:31 - ID#257312)
White House in a Panic, Massive Leak of National Security Documents!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:31 - ID#173196)
tomo: My work on the NYSE money flow
shows $97 billion came out of the NYSE to the "sidelines, for the month of October.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:37 - ID#372214)
then the little guy is in deep DOO DOO.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:40 - ID#26793)
The concept of the Fergie chart is the same as mine in that inflation is removed and a valid year to year comparison that shows the true progress of industry without the confusion factor of inflation. His chart is the S&P, mine is the Dow. He is using something to proxy the S&P for the years before 1926, or whenever the exact start of the S&P was. My charts use daily data. Daily is better but a more powerful computer is required to handle 30,000+ records on the chart.

I prefer the Dow over the S&P because it has a longer historical life; back to 1890 for the Dow 12 and to 1896 for the Dow 30. The Dow accounts for 80% of the dollar value of all stocks traded, then and now. Also, ordinary citizens are more familiar with the Dow than with the S&P and can relate to it. I will e.mail you my latest analysis chart if you like. It is in .BMP format so I think you can read it with your Apple.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:44 - ID#173196)
tomo: Maybe not. The $97 billion + is on its way
back this month. Hence the rrrrise!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:50 - ID#252391)
Yes perhaps just a sidways move may all we will see till january in gold. I am beginning to worry however that the same control of the gold price we have seen will continue dispite the thoughts and reasoning that it won't. I think the key now is the bonds. If the traders there are not worried about the value of their dollar then gold won;t go very far soon. Deflation in commodities, particularly oil, and the dollar index now back up to near 96 makes a hard arguement against gold going anywhere.

Best thing that can be said is that it isn't going down, YET, though a spill would be horrible given the weakening technicals that I view on the dollar based charts.

We will see

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:51 - ID#372214)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:51 - ID#386245)
G'day Auric
Why doesn't Drudge download?? Too hot for the gubbmint??

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:53 - ID#252391)
THC (Palladium)
Did you see RJ comments earlier on PD - seems some strang things going on - some players out of position - holding SWC though it is starting to act as one said " like an industrial supply company." Maybe so but I like the fundlementals in that company more than any other. Seems much more potential for PD than gold and for SWC as a result, for which revenues will really spring in the first quarter.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 05:58 - ID#173196)
I can't help think that LTC did, but I'm not sure. My stuff tracks the money, not the owners.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:01 - ID#257312)
Nick @ NSC-- National Security Documents Leak Story

Looky here--

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:05 - ID#333126)
great scoop

( even though matt drudge's site seems to be down - shut down or flat out overwhelmed by viewers? )

this story is BIG hehehe ... :- )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:08 - ID#372214)
so afutures driven us market might make sense with help from the maniacs to propell it to new europe we do not have the same effect.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:09 - ID#333126)
isn't a rise in income inflationary?

inflation/deflation. all so confusing in a background of manipulation.

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:14 - ID#33184)
Similar view put forward by Martin Armstrong ( see latest transcript on PEI site ) . Also, it is a view active in the interbank market.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:14 - ID#26793)
Taiwan stocks down 3% on banking news; finance minister urges depositors to be calm.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:16 - ID#173196)
Yes, the futures + the PPT + the short covering, start the fire. The maniacs ( dippies? ) take it to the moon from there.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:19 - ID#386245)
Amazing, this paper stuff called 'money'. I was in Guangzhou ( Canton ) , tendered a US$$20 to the exchange desk, and they refused to take it!! Tried another couple of places. Refused!! There was a corner missing from the note. Wouldn't take it in China.

Another time, in Indonesia I fronted up with Aussie 'paper money'. Refused!! They wouldn't take it!! Oz had just introduced the new plastic ( polymer ) stuff called 'money'. Didn't want the paper any more!!

Makes you wonder about this paper/plastic that you and I exchange for 'goods'. IT IS TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE RECEIVER'S PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSUMPTION THAT THIS STUFF HAS VALUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When that assumption is brought into question, GOLD will be king!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:19 - ID#372214)
would europe be a buy now!! short term.

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:22 - ID#371242)

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:24 - ID#371242)
about gold
i will have something to say about gold later on today now that have i have a password

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:27 - ID#173196)
Since Europe follows the US ( and vice versa ) , I'd say we're going up for 10/15 trading days. Considering that I closed my shorts yesterday, for sure we're not going down.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:29 - ID#252391)
leak of Foreign Policy info....
....could this be the trigger for the sell off in the stock market?? Looks like it will be very embarrassing if nothing else.

See Auric's 6:01 for url

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:32 - ID#173196)
When I go long, I'll post. You all go short, I GUARANTEE you'll rake it in!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:37 - ID#372214)
since i trade gold regardles of price up and down i recommend not getting to exited until the holliday season is over.GOD BLESS ALL!!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:40 - ID#386245)
Forget the 'S' three letter word!!
Forget the 'D' ten letter word!!

I can smell the 'T' seven letter word coming on!!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:41 - ID#173196)
Nothing ( except Greenspeak ) will make this stock market tank, the Dippies are on the move now. Need to convince the maniacs to climb on GOLD!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:47 - ID#386245)
THE Priest
Bless you, and your password.

Oh, and welcome too.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:53 - ID#26793)
Eight largest Japanese insurers battered by poor stock prices, falling business

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:55 - ID#386245)
Globex S&P now up...

Tulips anyone??

(Wed Nov 25 1998 06:58 - ID#26793)
The top 808 companies in Japan suffer profit drop of 77.9% (not a typo)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:09 - ID#35571)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:10 - ID#35571)
A new kind of flight to safety

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:15 - ID#35571)
Backing the wrong horse
These guys backed the wrong horse, so now they're backing a different horse.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:21 - ID#35571)
Confucious say
Man who can not keep private affairs secret can not keep state secrets.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:26 - ID#35571)
Fed acting to hold up bonds

US BONDS RALLY: Long-term Treasury prices reversed the losses posted Monday
and traders credited the Federal Reserve's big purchase of medium- and
long-term securities, as well as the stock market's inability to extend
Monday's gains.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:40 - ID#270253)
I love those charts that you posted in the early a.m. Thanks.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:51 - ID#29048)
'flation news
November 24, 1998
Dow Jones Newswires
Analyst: Lower Commodity Prices Will Raise Deflation Fears

Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- If commodity prices fall any lower, it will raise concerns of deflation, according to Herzog Heine Geduld Inc.'s vice president and senior technical analyst, Elaine Yager.

"The grain complex has been disappointing, the glut in oil has just ripped that market apart completely and ... the gold market is still sideways," Yager said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday.

If the CRB futures price index December contracts fall below the current 200 level, then it will "again heighten concerns of having moved from a disinflation into a deflation," Yager said.

While Yager said 195 is a number that would raise many eyebrows, she believes "it would not be a deflation until we are under 173."

- Nicole Ridgway; 201-938-5174

(Wed Nov 25 1998 07:52 - ID#350194)
Passwords and Progress and Flatlining
IF there is anyone else around here who has recently acquired a password that has not been used yet - Let him now speak - or forever hold his peace! ;- ) Good Morning World! Gold is not only remaining in its box it is now losing its pulse rapidly and is comatose at the time being. If someone does not rapidly bring on the electrodes, THE priest has arrived just in time to say a few words over the body. Anybody bring the nails? Lenin still got room in his tomb?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:00 - ID#35571)
It's flatline only because esotericist didn't want me to jiggle any levers untill next week.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:04 - ID#317211)
A very happy Thansgiving Eve to all
Tolerant1 - Recommend copious amounts of good food, blue agave and total
relaxation. Having fixed up my own fixer upper for the last 20 years, &
still not done, the true joy of home remodeling is when you're not doing
it,yes? Best wishes for swift recovery.

Fergie - nice work on your charts, most informative. What do they mean?
Hard to say in todays manipulated marketplace. Speakin'a which...

Gollum - Fed's now holding up US bond market, LTCM and the DOW while the gubmint holds up IMF etc. by HOLDING UP us taxpayers. That juggling act
is becoming most burdonsome. Another ball, AG?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:06 - ID#26793)
Likely victor in Venezuelan election is making rich people nervous

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:16 - ID#224230)
@gollum - That's right - blame somebody else
Funds wired to USA today. Calls to be purchased Friday....Polish those levers if you must, re-label them if it helps, but DON'T YANK on them ! YET....On my mark...

Happy thanksgiving to all.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:19 - ID#317211)
@Donald - that was good. If I may paraphrase...
Political analysts say this years' election in Minnesota will be a
watershed...after democratic rule that has seen two traditional,
and now widely discredited, political parties taking turns in power.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:19 - ID#431200)
The love affair between Chelsea Clinton and her first serious boyfriend, Matthew Pierce, is over.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:23 - ID#35571)
I'll keep those lines as flat as a mummy's heartbeat.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:23 - ID#30126)
It should be an interesting morning in the stock market. After the noon hour, many will be slipping away for the holiday. The sector to watch will be the Internet stocks and indexes. After all, eBay was up about three points to close at 196, but.... It got up to ~$230 for a high. Somebody is holding an awfully expensive 'hope and a prayer' stock. Netscape gets bought out, and the volumes on the NYSE are not impressive. Yahoo! has a story on the CRB. A break below 195 'would raise some eyebrows', going below 173 ( ! ) would be 'deflationary'. Interesting times indeed. The economy is great, but business is nervous. Consumers 'feel' good, but capital spending is down to 1990 recession levels. Go figure. Another accident is sure to happen soon, and with it goes.......?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:24 - ID#246299)

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 178.380 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 296.200 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 178.724 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 296.450 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9731 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9175 US Dollars

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:26 - ID#30126)
Happy Thanksgiving to all.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:26 - ID#317211)
@Goldteck - Mat must have regained his eyesight.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:29 - ID#431200)
Professionals seen contining to use gold as hedge
Professionals seen contining to use gold as hedge -Anglo profits fall, metal prices seen weak

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:31 - ID#413175)
Drudge the Dredge

If this Drudge material proves out, the probability of Mr. Clinton leaving office in favour of Mr. Gore increases. Mr. Gore does not seem to be regarded as a heavyweight in /any/ area of competancy. That being the case, would someone in that country please comment on the changes that might happen at very senior levels in the United States' government should the unsteady hand of Mr. Gore take the helm?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:40 - ID#33024)
gold (technical analysis) -

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:42 - ID#376309)
Gold has been in a tight range lately because of the roll-over from Dec to Feb Comex Gold. I can not explain it but the days before roll-over are very slow and tight ranges. But as soon as roll-over ends a move happens. Expect something to happen on this starting next monday. We will break this range next week! I'm long still but I do not like how the XAU dropped yesterday and closed on ther lows.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:42 - ID#339274)
Gold sitting on the narrow edge,will either climb or drop
3.00. resolve will be most likely come the first hour,big day
for gold today

John Disney
(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:48 - ID#24135)
drudge is down ..
... Did the black choppers get him ..'
.. Love ya drudge baby ..
.. Viva Drudge ..

John Disney
(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:50 - ID#24135)
whud he say ??
reterives or whoever ..
what did drudge say ?? I think
he is down ..

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:52 - ID#252391)
don't we know by now...
every time gold sits on a narrow edge it goes down...every move of $ two dollars or more is advertised in advance by the Xau....

Conclusion: GOing down, today and next week will start of weakly...I don't have any plans to revised my holdings because I think the drop won't be more that to 70 on the Xau and 290 on Gold. The deflationary feeling the futures markets have is the only thing that worries it just a breeze or will it turn into a gale ...we'll know that if 290 gives way on volumn.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:53 - ID#288466)
John Disney
Here 'tis....

Date: Wed Nov 25 1998 06:01
Auric ( Nick @ NSC-- National Security Documents Leak Story )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 08:56 - ID#258427)
Here it really 'til

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:00 - ID#242326)

US: Double Bubble

Stephen Roach ( New York )

Though I've often been accused of hyperbole, the stock market has finally outdone me. From
meltdown to meltup -- the past five weeks have given new meaning to this mother of all bull markets.
In many respects, it's been a no-brainer: The Fed has taken the upside out of the interest rate equation;
the global crisis has faded quickly as a threat to economic growth and corporate earnings; and cash-rich,
underperforming investors have every incentive to rush back in. Presto -- there's no looking back.

The Fed is obviously the swing factor. With but one policy instrument at its disposal -- the federal
funds rate -- the central bank has had no choice but to ease aggressively in response to the worst global
financial crisis in 60 years. But actions often have unintended consequences. And the resurgence in the
stock market certainly bears that out. I liken the outcome to the classic water balloon analogy: Press on
a half-filled water balloon and the bubble quickly flows from one end to the other. Alas, one instrument
can't do it all -- fix the crisis and, at the same time, maneuver the economy to hit prescribed growth,
inflation, and unemployment targets. Something had to give, and Dow 9374 says it all. The same
instrument that has contained the crisis has unleashed an extraordinary buying frenzy that has now
taken on a life of its own.

Unlike past dip-buying bonanzas, there's good reason to worry about this immaculate reconception in
the stock market. The reason: An increasingly wealth-dependent American consumer is now hooked on
asset appreciation as never before. This shows up in the form of a personal saving rate that has now
moved into negative territory ( -0.2% in September ) for the first time since the early 1930s. I am not
sympathetic to those who want to discredit this measure in order to dismiss this new and important
tension point in the US economy. No, this is not the perfect gauge of household saving. But it does
reflect an accurate assessment of the balance between the income generated by current production and
the personal spending that drives that same pace of real activity. As seen in this context, a negative
saving rate suggests that spending growth remains well ahead of measured income growth; the related
inference is that US households are now more than willing to let the stock market provide the saving
that would normally be forthcoming from a more cautious alignment between consumption and income.
All this leads to a potentially lethal double-bubble -- an ever-expanding equity bubble that has given rise
to an equally ominous spending bubble.

How this all ends is pure speculation at this point -- no pun intended. Of course, in these days of
renewed bliss, there's no reason to even contemplate such an adjustment. After all, the stock market is
now in the process of turning in its fourth 20%-plus year in a row; since the end of 1994, the S&P 500
has increased by more than 150%, enough to have generated close to $5 trillion of new household
sector wealth. A traditional "5% wealth effect" shows up as a $250 billion spending increment spread
out over three years -- or about 1.5% of real disposable personal income ( and spending ) on a yearly
average basis. But there can be no mistaking an American consumer that has been lured far from the
saving norms of the past. Indeed over the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the production-based personal
saving rate averaged 7.6%. If this rate were to return just half way to its historical norm, then our
estimates suggest that consumer spending growth would have to fall a full 2.0 percentage points below
the pace of personal income generation over that period. That, in turn, would reduce real GDP growth
by at least 1.3 percentage points -- easily the stuff of outright recession.

But why worry? As long as the stock market keeps rising, this windfall of consumer purchasing power
becomes the rule and not the exception. Saving need not ever take place out of the wage income
generated from current production. Never mind the demographic profile of an increasingly older
population moving inexorably toward retirement. Pay little heed to workers falling increasingly under
defined contribution pension schemes. An ever rising stock market can do all the saving you'll ever
need. And it can also support spending habits beyond your wildest dreams. Such are the perils of the
greatest double bubble of them all. The stock market has clearly become too big to fail.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:02 - ID#339274)
IMO it is going up.: ) Small juniors are racking up big gains
in the last week,small account holders are casting their
eyes increasingly to the goldstock market.It won't be for long
when it is there the money is made,like mushrooms

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:02 - ID#288466)
"The love affair between Chelsea Clinton and her first serious boyfriend, Matthew Pierce, is over."

Maybe he got tired of having not-sex with her. ( ;^ )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:11 - ID#288466)
Gold and Silver
Gold stochastics overbought....looks like a drop is in order

Silver stochastics oversold, but more to go before an upturn

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:13 - ID#411259)
.... I read the moon fakery thingy posted here earlier .....

This schmoe is basing his ridiculous theories on shadows
Seems light travels in straight parallel lines form the sun
This is true, and shadows would form as suggested
But the sun is not the only source of light on the moon is it?
On our own planet shadows may be formed in the deepest night
By the light of our neighbor and friend, Luna

Has this guy never heard of earthshine?
The earth is a powerful source of light on the moon
As it reflects off our shiny blue world
If one sees a full earth in the sky, when viewed from the moon
Then the sun must be opposite the earth
With the moon interspersed twixt the two
This would give two powerful sources of light
Coming from different directions

This is a child's argument, that takes to real cleverness to make
Yet some folks will look at some things
And see what they want to see rather than what is
This fellow is truly chasing shadows

He should buy a science book instead


(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:14 - ID#375108)
Glenn, on Gold
Useful to have your outlook as someone actually there in the trenches. Keep it coming, it's appreciated.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:17 - ID#288466)
Gold and Energy T/A

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:24 - ID#33184)
Only in South Africa ... again ...
THE president of the West Indies Cricket Board and his wife were hijacked on Wednesday in Soweto, the sprawling township attached to Johannesburg, a South African cricket official said.
Pat Rousseau, his wife Hester, Jamaican journalist Tony Becca and a local cricket official were held up by three armed men as they were walking back to their car after visiting the Soweto Cricket Oval, United Cricket Board ( UCB ) official Imtiaz Patel said.
The attackers forced the group to lie on the ground, took money and jewellery from Hester Rousseau and then drove off with their car, Patel said.
The West Indians, on their first official tour of South Africa, played their first game against an invitational side at the Soweto Cricket Oval on November 11.
UCB managing director Ali Bacher said that Rousseau had handled the incident "superbly," and added: "Nobody was injured, thank God."
He said Roussouw, who arrived in South Africa on Tuesday, did not want to comment about the incident, but has indicated he may speak to the media about it on Thursday.--AFP

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:35 - ID#339274)
for the ride
21 3/8 all the way

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:36 - ID#33184)
South Africa: The ANC targets mining's untapped riches

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:38 - ID#256365)
gap closed? flatline AG gold standard, Love hurts
Hey, says gold hit 295.8, a while ago someone here was saying something about gold gapping up on the 18th, this closes that gap right? and to the technical / chart watching folks this is a bearish sign for gold right?

I have been reading about the chairman of the US central bank. Prior to his current job didn't Mr. Greenspan endorse a gold standard? Some here claim that the price of gold is being manipulated, could it be that the US is on some sort of unofficial informal gold standard with the dollar pegged to around 294?

Someone posted a bunch of dates concerning Iraq and prices of oil and massive changes in DJIA and the price of gold on all those occasions was about the same. Ha, that would teach all those derivitive speculators... oh wait... hey thats not playing fair!

Also someone posted a bunch of figures concerning various currencies and the price of gold and I think their point was along these lines, however I am not sophisticated enough to understand most of their data.

Could it be that the $294=1oz Gold?

As for Clinton and this latest scandal... I hate to say this but you KNOW he is going to get away with it. I mean the guy is magic... Like Faust? Rules don't apply to this fellow, they should, but they don't.

And as for Chelsie and her boyfriend, well, I'm sure she is a spoiled "individual" whom I would dislike, but I was once that age, and that pain is as real as it gets for someone that age.

Hey, some of the links people post don't work for me, they seem to work for others, because there are followup comments, I'm using IE5, is that my problem, the links lood unfinished to me, for example

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:43 - ID#339274)
on a run,here we come : )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:46 - ID#432395)
Something just kicked gold's ass!!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:48 - ID#252391)
saw that gold jump
also is silver up about 8 cents???

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:50 - ID#252391)
xau last at 77.11
oil stocks up....something is happening

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:53 - ID#33184)
Americans spent more than they earned again in October (-0.2%)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:53 - ID#30126)
The rumor about the Fed raising margin requirments is making the rounds again.......

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:53 - ID#252391)
Just stuff bouncing around
xau back quickly to 76.73 . . . not to get excited...

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:56 - ID#287371)
@ Nick @ C
Dear Nick,

re: yours of Wed Nov 25 1998 02:06, thank you very much, and yes, how fortunate I am to still have a dad. God Bless and Happy Thanksgiving.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:57 - ID#350194)
Up, Down, or all around?
Premiere: Date: Wed Nov 25 1998 08:40 CEAUX-DUTHEIL Stphane - Merci Nous Ami! Secondly - It seems that there is quite a discrepancy in the predictions here this morning as to Golds short term price direction - with good arguments on both sides. Should be interesting! Tolerant 1 - Down, but not out, I trust?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 09:57 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re charts AU/Energy
Damn, you come up with some good stuff. If I Book these, will they be updated? Really good stuff, many thanx, Charlie

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:06 - ID#33184)
Russians not repaying debts
Russia's Vnesheconombank will be unable to pay cash interests totalling
about 360 mln usd, due on Dec 2, under the London Club's Restructuring
Agreement, deputy finance minister Mikhail Kasyanov and Vnesheconombank chairman Andrei Kostin said in a statement.
In the statement, jointly issued with Deutsche Bank AG who chairs the
club's advisory committee, the government requested that the amounts be discharged through issuance at par of additional London Club Interest Notes ( IANs ) effective from Dec 2.
Russia is unable to make the payments "due to the current severe economic
position" in the country, the statement said. Another 216 mln usd interest payment under the existing IANs, also falling due on Dec 2, is to be paid in full.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:11 - ID#339274)
Time has squared price ,gap closed

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:16 - ID#246299)
Notes on the margin

When the IMF/SDR returned from its latest hiatus, there was a significant change. Suddenly, they are reporting in 10 decimal places ( Significant Numbers, not decimal places ) . Getting ready for the push to 31 Dec 1998, one expects.
Example ( data from 11-25 v last week )
XAG Silver Ounces = 3.5492265433 SDR
SDR = 0.2817515275 Silver ounces
XAG Silver Ounces ( New York ) = 3.517 SDR
SDR = 0.2844 Silver ounces

This may 'leave you cold' ( griny thing ) , but we can now survey prices based on measurements in three metals across multiple currencies.
We have been "thoughtty-trained" to "see" the dollar as the "Pricer-in-Chief".
It is not.
New days a-coming.
If the world will hold together.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:18 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 178.380 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 296.200 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 178.724 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 24 Nov 1998 ) : 296.450 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9546 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 25 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9150 US Dollars

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:24 - ID#33184)
Anyone home - Salomon Smith Barney trading floor on business TV
and there are about 3 or 4 people there...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:32 - ID#147201)
SDRer re your 10:16
From the numbers you posted, it appears that the SDR is floating. Am I reading this right?? Charlie

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:35 - ID#365216)
B-G Algae
Along with my storage of PMs, does anyone recommend Blue-Green Algae
tablets as part of a Y2K or emergency food storage plan?
Any brands recommended above others or is generic just as good as
the expensive Cell Tech from Klamath Falls in Oregon?

Got God, gold, guns, grub, ground, and generators?

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:38 - ID#287371)
Those containers with silica gel beads
Anybody familiar with a source for those enclosed metal containers containing silica gel with little holes on the top and the indicator window where you can see if the beads are pink ( need to be put in the oven to be redessicated ) or blue ( ready to use in your safe to keep coins from oxidation damage ) ? Thank you for your help.
Please email any information to

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:40 - ID#284226)
data sources for my charts (posted at the top of today)

I used data from the Standard and Poor's for the annual average stock index. From 1914-on ( or whatever the exact date for the creation of the 500 was ) , it was the S&P 500. From 1885 up until then, S&P publishes data for the "S&P Composite" and I used their numbers for that. For stock market and gold year end prices from 1801-1884, I used information found on the Global Financial Data website. The specific site for stocks is here:

The is a ton of good historical fanancial data here, as well:

I noticed one thing about the S&P Stock Index/Gold ratio: that the trend over time clearly was going higher with each peak, but that the lows have remained much more in the low areas. This has meant that the last two falls from peaks ( 1929 and 1968 ) have been much greater. If this trend continues, we could be in for quite a shock when the current market breaks down.

IMHO, Fergie

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:44 - ID#333126)
@crystal ball - silica gel
buy them in bulk at photographic stores -- cheap.

( photographers use them like nobody's business to keep the fungus off their camera lenses... I should know )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:46 - ID#147201)
EJ, Envy and Fergie re LT Gold chart
I got them up. went to landscape and got the earlier half. Could not get the recent half. What did I do wrong???

(Wed Nov 25 1998 10:52 - ID#284226)
chas--earlier and recent "halves"?
Sorry, not sure what you mean. If you can't get the whole chart at once on my posts at the beginning of today, try Envy's at the end of last night.

I'm afraid I'm a novice at computers...


(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:04 - ID#246299)
Charlie, I'm beginning to see the SDR as the Spider
spinning the web...need a little more time to revise model, revise db, input new data and think of presentation method [charts] which will convey what the heck I'm talking about! {:- ) )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:06 - ID#365216)
myths, misunderstanding, and lies about reporting PM purchases
Myths, Misunderstandings and Outright Lies

Some precious metals firms foster the circulation of many myths,
misunderstandings, and outright lies about the purchase and sale of
precious metals. Generally, these misconceptions and falsehoods promote
the notion that the government may again call in gold as it did in 1933 and
that "reportable" transactions are preludes to confiscation. By cultivating
such fears in investors, unscrupulous firms can sell high-priced--and often
overpriced--coins with greater margins of profit.

Investors who believe these stories invariably pay too much or buy the
wrong coins. After reading this Web page, no investor need be taken
advantage of.

"Reportable purchases"

Often, promoters will assert that the coins they offer are not subject to
"reporting." Such statements imply the government requires gold
transactions be reported. However, no government regulations require the
reporting of the purchases of any precious metals, per se. If payment is
made by cash greater than $10,000, however, it becomes a "cash
reporting transaction." It is not the gold that the government wants
reported but the cash. Such reporting applies to all business transactions
involving more than $10,000 cash.

Regarding cash transactions, Official General Instructions for IRS Form
8300 read: "Who Must File.--Each person engaged in a trade or business
who, during that trade or business, receive more than $ 10,000 in cash in
one transaction or two or more related transactions, must file Form 8300.
Any transactions conducted between a payer or its agent ) and the recline
in a 24-hour period are related transactions. "

This regulation applies to cash--greenbacks, paper money. It does not
apply to personal checks, wire transfers, or money market withdrawals.
When cashier's checks or money orders are involved, cash reporting may
be triggered.

Form 8300's General Instructions define as cash "a cashier's check, bank
draft, traveler's check, or money order having a face amount of not more
than $10,000." Using a cashier's check less than $10,000 would be a
"cash transaction," but it would not be reportable because it is less than
$10,000. However, two cashier's checks, each less than $10,000 but
totaling more than $10,000 for a single purchase, would be considered
cash and subject to reporting.

Further clarification: If an investor makes a $15,000 investment in gold and
pays with a single $15,000 cashier's check, it is not reportable. If,
however, he pays with two or more cashier's checks each less than
$10,000, the dealer would be obligated to report.

Cash reporting requirements were not written specifically for the precious
metals industry but for all businesses. The purchase of a car, boat, or
jewelry, and payment with two cashier's checks, each less than $10,000
but totaling more than $10,000, would be a reportable transaction.

Another example: an investor agrees to buy precious metals totaling more
than $10,000, again say $15,000, and wants to make payments with
money from two accounts. If the investor withdraws $8,000 from the first
account and gets a cashier's check, and then gets another cashier's check
for $7,000 from the second account, the transaction becomes reportable.
A purchase of $30,000 and payment with two $15,000 cashier's check
would not be a reportable transaction. The significant amount is $10,000.

Personal checks or checks drawn on the payer's own account are not
considered cash. Form 8300's General Instructions read: "Cash does not
included a check drawn on the payers own account, such as a personal
check, regardless of the amount. "

Back to Top

Related Transactions

Form 8300's General Instructions say "Transactions are considered
related even if they occur over a period of more than twenty-four hours if
the recipient knows, or has reason to know, that each transaction is one
of a series of connected transactions." For example, if an investor
agrees to buy $20,000 in gold but makes installment payments with cash
in amounts less than $10,000, the purchase would be reportable.

Back to Top

Bank Reporting

It is often erroneously thought that banks report all checks more than
$10,000 to the government. Banks do not. Again, a cash transaction
exceeding $10,000 requires a bank to report. A cash deposit more than
$10,000 to any bank or other financial institution account by an individual
possibly would be reported.

Although the cash reporting threshold is $10,000, many banks ask for
identification for purchases of cashier's checks for as little as $3,000. That
is because bank lawyers want to "play it safe." Even then, banks usually
do not report unless a combination of transactions exceeds $10,000
during a short time span.

If a business reports, the customer will know it. Form 8300 requires name,
address, citizenship, and social security number. It also asks for method of
identification, driver's license, passport, etc. Additionally, Form 8300's
General Instructions call for anyone filing a Form 8300 to "provide a
written statement to each person named in a required Form 8300 on or
before January 31 of the year following the calendar year in which the
cash is received."

Finally, Form 8300 General Instructions has a box to be marked if the
transactions appear "suspicious." The box can be marked for transactions
less than $10,000 if the recipient believes the purchaser is trying to avoid
cash reporting.

No one wants any red flags at the IRS. Unscrupulous dealers know this
and use it to avert clear thinking; they use the threat of "reporting" to raise
investor fear. This enables them to sell overpriced coins. Investors justify
higher prices by thinking they are getting "non-reportable gold." No
investor need be taken advantage of this way.

Back to Top

Reportable sales

Sales ( customer sales to dealers ) of certain precious metals exceeding
specific quantities call for reporting to the IRS on 1099B forms. The 1099B
forms are similar to other 1099 forms taxpayers commonly receive; the "B"
means they have been issued by a business other than a financial entity.

Reportable sales ( again, customer sales to dealers ) apply to 1-oz Gold Maple Leafs,
1-oz Krugerrands, and 1-oz Mexican Ounzas in quantities of twenty-five or more in one
transaction. Reporting requirements do not apply to American golden eagles, no matter the
quantities. Furthermore, reporting requirements do not apply to any fractional ounce gold

Only one common silver product is reportable when sold: pre-1965 U.S.
coins. The quantity that causes the filing of a 1099B, however, is not
clear. The IRS bases its authority to require reporting on CFTC-approved
contracts that call for the delivery of $10,000 face value. Consequently,
many dealers do not report sales of pre-1965 U.S. coins unless the sale
totals $10,000 face value; others report $1,000 sales.

Sales of Engelhard Prospectors, 100-oz bars, and American Silver Eagles
are not reportable, no matter the quantity. Other precious metals products
are reportable, but they are not covered here because the average
investor does not trade them.

Most investors have no first-hand knowledge of these matters;
consequently, when precious metals dealers talk about cash reporting,
8300 forms, or 1099s, investors are unable to know that they may not be
hearing the whole story. Wanting to avoid the government knowing about
their precious metals investments, many investors are delighted to learn
that their purchases will not be reported and end up buying overpriced

As explained, under Reportable Purchases, no precious metals purchases
are reported unless cash reporting thresholds are exceeded. Investors
wanting to avoid reportable sales should buy American Eagles.

Back to Top

Avoiding Confiscation

The most frequently used technique to promote high-priced coins is to
raise the issue of confiscation. Many telemarketers tell investors that old
U.S. gold coins are not "subject to confiscation," leaving the impression
that modern gold bullion coins are. Consequently, many investors buy old
U.S. gold coins at prices significantly higher than the value of their gold
content. The idea of buying "non-confiscateable'' gold sounds like a
powerful argument but wilts under scrutiny.

Many precious metals firms maintain that old U.S. gold coins, proof sets,
and commemorative gold coins are "collectibles" and would not be subject
to another gold recall. Some firms say that premiums of at least 15%
automatically make coins collectibles. Another notion holds that coins one
hundred years or older are antiques and therefore not subject to
confiscation. One large firm that sells rare coins goes as far as to say:

Under current federal law, gold bullion can be
confiscated by the federal government in times of
national crisis. As collectibles, rare coins do not fall
within the provisions permitting confiscation.

No federal law or Treasury department regulation supports these

The myth that specific types of gold coins are "not confiscateable" stems
from the Executive Order that President Roosevelt issued in 1933 calling
in gold. The Executive Order exempted "gold coins having a recognized
special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins," but it did not define
special value or collector, and certainly not collectibles. Nevertheless,
telemarketers promoting old U.S. gold coins perpetuate this myth because
it makes easier the selling of high-priced coins.

Just because Roosevelt exempted "gold coins having a recognized special
value" does not mean that any future call-in would exempt collectibles.
Roosevelt's Executive Order would have no legal binding on another gold
call-in. Besides, on December 31, 1974, with Executive Order 11825,
President Gerald Ford repealed the Executive Order that Roosevelt used
to call in gold in 1933. This was necessary because on the same day,
Congress restored Americans' right to own gold. Furthermore, in 1977
Congress removed the president's authority to regulate transactions
during a period of national emergency other than war.

Even if a law did exempt certain coins from future confiscation, the
government could change that law. Sadly, the government often simply
ignores laws. Dealers who say they sell "non-confiscateable" gold have no
basis for making such claims.

For the sake of further discussion of this matter, assume there were
another gold call-in. Would old U.S. gold coins, which make up the bulk of
the "non-confiscateable" market, be exempted? Probably not because they
are common coins. ( The old U.S. gold coins most often promoted are the
$20 Libertys and the $20 St. Gaudens, also known as Double Eagles. A
$10 coin is called an Eagle, a $5 coin a Half Eagle, and a $2-1/2 coin a
Quarter Eagle. )

Although Roosevelt's Executive Order required Americans to turn in their
gold coins and gold bullion, foreigners continued to redeem paper dollars
for gold until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold
window. From the end of World War II to 1971, our gold reserves were cut
in half.

It is generally believed that all the gold coins surrendered under
Roosevelt's call-in were melted or refined into .999 fine bullion bars. That
was not the case. It was to the government's advantage to give the
foreigners gold coins instead of bullion bars.

With the official price of gold at $35 an ounce, a foreign bank presenting
$35 million paper dollars received 1,000,000 ounces if the Treasury
delivered gold bullion. However, when the Treasury delivered gold coins
with a face value of $35 million, it delivered only 967,500 ounces, saving
32,500 ounces. Each $20 Liberty and St. Gaudens ( Double Eagles )
contains .9675 ounce of gold. The smaller coins contain the same
proportions. Therefore, it was to the Treasury Department's advantage to
give out U.S. gold coins instead of bullion bars. Additionally, before
Roosevelt's call-in, millions of old U.S. gold coins already had made their
way to Europe.

So, in view of the government's policy of delivering "confiscated" gold
coins to foreign governments, how can a promoter of old U.S. gold coins
claim to be selling "non- confiscateable" gold when the coins he delivers
may have been called in in 1933?

Promoters of old U.S. gold coins rarely reveal the sources of their coins.
They foster the idea that the coins they sell somehow survived the 1933
call-in. Probably, the coins being promoted just arrived from Europe a few
weeks earlier. Several large numismatic wholesale firms have offices in
Europe for finding hoards of old U.S. coins. One firm advertises
"Shipments coming in from Europe daily." Another firm boasts offices in
Brussels, Paris, and Zurich.

As noted above, the premise of "non-confiscateable" gold lies in
Roosevelt's Executive Order that exempted "gold coins having recognized
special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins." Are old U.S. gold
coins "rare and unusual" today? Not hardly.

Between 1850 and 1907, U.S. mints turned out over 100 million $20
Libertys. Between 1908 and 1933, they coined some 65 million $20 St.
Gaudens. Today, no one knows how many have survived, but the number
is undoubtedly in the ten of millions, with the bulk of them residing in
European bank vaults.

Because of all the old U.S. gold coins in Europe and because of the huge
premiums they carry, old U.S. coins are dangerous investments at this
time. If gold rallies, European banks may see it as an opportunity to
unload, causing old U.S. gold coins to fall in price while gold goes up. For
a further discussion about why old U.S. gold coins are overpriced, see Old
U.S. Gold Coins.

If gold fails to rally, the banks may fear gold will stay down for a long time,
prompting them to resume selling. This, too, would cause the old U.S. gold
coins to fall in price, shrinking the premiums at which they sell over spot.

Since 1989, PCGS and NGC, the two major grading services, have
"slabbed" over a million coins rated MS-60 or higher. Now, the two
services are grading 200,000 to 300,000 coins a month. ( see PCGS,
NGC, and "Slabbed" Coins on our Web page Old U.S. Gold Coins. )
Millions of lower-grade coins ( VF through BU ) do not even warrant being
submitted. Yet, they are sold as "non-confiscateable" semi-numismatic
coins. Low-grade coins that have no real collector value are called
semi-numismatic. VF/XF common-date Double Eagles are definitely
semi-numismatic coins.

Add in the uncounted smaller denomination old gold coins ( $10 Eagles, $5
Half Eagles, etc. ) and the number of available old U.S. gold coins grows
even bigger. There is no way the old U.S. gold coins being promoted as
"non-confiscateable" have a "recognized special value to collectors of rare
and unusual coins."

The concept of "non-confiscateable" gold is counterfeit. The idea lives
only because dealers continue to push it for their own benefit. Investors
who do not have the facts are unable to know otherwise. Readers of this
Web page, however, need not be victims to the hype and promotion so
prevalent in the gold coin industry.

Investors wanting to buy gold should go with the bullion coins: American
golden eagles, Maple Leafs, or Krugerrands. These coins move dollar for
dollar with the world price of gold and are easy to buy, sell, and trade.
Additionally, tracking the value of these coins is easy. No "expert" has to
look at them.

Visit our Gold Bullion Coins page and afterwards call CMI at
1-602-234-2300 to order, or to get any points clarified. Or, visit our web
page Doing Business with Certified Mint, Inc.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:09 - ID#206196)
General- re: B-G algae
Tried Super B-G algae for about six months a year or so ago and got no noticeable results. Some claim it changed them from an invalid to superman but not me. Be sure you have a store of colloidal silver, though. ( Not just because I'm heavily invested in silver;-} ) Colloidal silver is a GREAT antibiotic effectively handling over 600 different bacteria and other viruses. ( Even effective against anthrax if the holy wars make it to your shores )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:18 - ID#206196)
General- followup
Don't pay any $4 per oz. for your colloidal silver that you'll find in most health stores. There is an outfit in Texas that sells units to make your own ( the unit is expensive ) but also will sell the product itself to you for about $1 per oz. You can find the info on their website by lokking in YAHOO for CS Pro Systems. I actually bought one of his units for about $700 and, after a year, feel like I have probably recouped my initial investment. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving! God Bless!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:18 - ID#235231)
Market Rap
This is an excerpt from William Fleckenstein's Market Rap on . I like his comments.

"Also in the news, a "white paper" published by the Chinese Central Bank is recommending that the bank diversify its reserve holdings away from the dollar and into gold. Obviously that would be a big deal since the Chinese central bank only has about 3 percent of its assets in gold ( 20 years ago, it had about 95 percent of its assets in gold ) . Nobody seems to be focusing on the upcoming introduction of the Euro. In about 40 days the Euro will begin trading, likely taking a bid away from the dollar. The world is going to change pretty dramatically when this happens. It could undermine the dollar and it could be good for gold, we will have to see. In terms of something that is cheap, gold is not that expensive, especially when you compare it to the cost of its production. Silver is even cheaper.

I continue to favor the precious metals as a low-risk idea. There are a lot of things that could be bullish for these metals, but given their depressed price, there isn't much risk involved. Which, of course, is the opposite of what is happening in the rest of the market, where there is tremendous risk."

I sure hope he's right.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:19 - ID#365216)
to Bottom$
I also had no noticable results but thought it might be worthwhile
anyway. I have seen Colloidal silver generators advertised a lot
in the SPOTLIGHT newspaper and am curious as to what they actually
make, what the product is composed of, and any benefits or dangers.
Are you actually digesting silver? Has this been proven safe?

Thank you.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:25 - ID#31868)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' here is a good one...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:30 - ID#31868)
Tantalus, Namaste' thanks for the kind words and Happy Thanksgiving to you and
yours...back to the couch...ugg...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:33 - ID#288466)
Hmmmmmm......yes, a web ferret I be's.

Yup - they're dumped the XAU and XOI indexes for the current baselines, and these are updated daily.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:35 - ID#206196)
to General
Silver is a necessary dietary mineral but is received in too small a quantity in our modern diets. Yes, it has actually been used medically for centuries to cure various ailments ( "Blue bloods"- a term for the bloody rich- got their nickname from ingesting silver in excess and actually turning their joints and certain skin areas a bluish color. ) Anyway, rather than take up space on this valuable gold forum, I would direct you to for more information than you will have the time to read about the benefits of colloidal silver.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:43 - ID#266105)
i taht i taw a puddy tat

from the web--

Being a trader for 11yrs has taught me to respect price action & momentum but I am quite wary of this renewed euphoria. The old adage, "The second mouse gets the cheese" rings ever louder in my head these days.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:47 - ID#344326)
Taken from the Drudge Report.....
Scroll down to "Life after Death of 60 Minutes"

"60 MINUTES [15.4/24, 22.23m] delivered its best performance in households and key adult demographics since March 15, 1998," declared network press pusher Mike Silver on Tuesday -- the house that Hewitt built is now planning to take on Y2K! Set for Sunday night: Experts tell Steve Kroft that Y2K will probably cause some serious problems...

EZ Believer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 11:51 - ID#173262)
General...Good post! Glad to get the facts straight.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:00 - ID#339274)
HUI ( NEM ) stronger than XAU

Cage Rattler
(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:02 - ID#33184)
Camdessus - Don't worry too much ...
WASHINGTON ( AFX ) - The immediate downside risks to the global economy have eased but clearly have not dissipated, said IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus.
In a speech to the International Financial Congress in Madrid, a copy of which was released here, Camdessus said that while a greater sense of calm has returned to the markets, the "earlier ebullience has been replaced by a more cautious attitude among many participants."
Camdessus said that, despite the improvement in sentiment, it is still unlikely that global economic growth this year will exceed 2 pct.
He noted that the international community has now gained some "invaluable breathing space" to press ahead with longer-term reforms to the global financial system.
Camdessus said important progress has been made over the past month. This
includes policy actions by industrialised countries that recognise that the balance of risk has moved away from inflation.
He added that the overall balance of news from emerging markets has become more positive. The recent IMF-led assistance package for Brazil means "the outlook for the whole Latin American region and for emerging markets everywhere has brightened considerably."
"The Latin American domino will not fall," Camdessus said, but stressed
that "we should all work together so that it can be said that in Brazil and Latin America, the crisis in the international financial system was brought under control," Camdessus said.
Turning to Asia, Camdessus noted that in South Korea and Thailand recent
financial indicators have been pointing to the possible start of a recovery in 1999.
Other emerging markets have responded constructively to the turbulence,
Camdessus said. He noted that most countries have chosen not to retreat behind protectionism, or to roll back liberalisation measures already undertaken.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:27 - ID#210282)
Latest from Joe Farah about CampaignGate
All: According to Judicial Watches's Larry Klayman, the Riady family can be linked to some of the largest 1996 Democratic campaign contributions, if not the largest. The Riadys and WJC go way back to Arkansas days -- intimately linked to the Worthen Bank, the Stevens family among other things. Now John Huang has limited immunity -- the fellow that got a top security clearance through Commerce without an FBI check. And strangely enough he was able to take secret documents out of the D.C. Commerce Building to the Steven's office nearby, and fax them to the Riadys.

Then -- there is the small matter of what favors WJC did in return, such as declaring approx $1 trillion worth of coal in Utah off limits. Really amazing since apparently the only other place in the world with such low-pollution coal deposits is in Indonesia. I guess the Green revolution is limited to what is politically expedient --despite all the hype from Al Gore. And -- energy independence is apparently no longer a national priority.

How odd that Janet Reno thinks nothing serious happened with CampaignGate -- despite FBI director Free's comments to the contrary.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:34 - ID#339274)
99 call options
Dec 99 gold up .90,1.1 million option open interest,today
traded 40900.hmmm this market is going to freeze up when
the date does arrive,

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:36 - ID#190411)
COMEX close time
Is today a shortened day?
At any rate, it might be interesting seeing the GC8Z get killed at the close. It doesn't cost all that much to smash it up.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:39 - ID#190411)
NEM almost at parity to ABX
21 NEM,,,,,,,,20.875ABX

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:46 - ID#432148)
JTF - Where is the US Liberal Media on this info???
With our Liberal Media in the US if a conservative was president this info would be top news. Funny thing. It doesn't appear even in the back pages in the papers I read ( LA Times and Orange County Register ) . And forget about seeing it on TV news. I think the Liberal Media is responsible for a lot of what is wrong in the U.S. In our liberal colleges they no longer teach objective reporting, obviously.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:48 - ID#222107)
crazytimes - Y2K problems
In the immortal words of Gomer Pyle: "Suprise! Suprise! Suprise!"

The REAL Y2K problems aren't in cars, buildings, and machinery. They are in FINANCIAL systems. Does anyone know of JUST ONE bank or insurance company that says they're ready for Y2K?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 12:51 - ID#374235)
Drudge is back on-line. And it's good!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:01 - ID#288466)
I don't know of any who are complete with the task, but here's one which is close.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:12 - ID#288466)
Here's another one.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:16 - ID#287407)
@ Tolerant1 and ravenfire
My deepest thanks. You gentlemen are worth your weight in
English: "gold"; French: "or"; German: "Gold"; Italian: "oro";
Spanish: "oro"; and for my brother Oris, Russian: "Zoloto"

chemical symbol on the periodic table: AU
Atomic number: 79
Atomic weight: 196.96655 ( 2 )
Group number: 11
CAS Registry number: 7440-57-5

Standard state solid at 298 K
Colour: gold
It is estimated that all the gold in the world, so far refined, could be placed in a single cube 60 ft. on a side. It is metallic, with a yellow colour when in a mass, but when finely divided it may be black, ruby, or purple. It is the most malleable and ductile metal; 1 ounce ( 28 g ) of gold can be beaten out to 300 square feet. It is a soft metal and is usually alloyed to give it more strength. It is a good conductor of heat and electricity, and is unaffected by air and most reagents.

The most common gold compounds are auric chloride ( AuCl3 ) and chlorauric acid ( HAuCl4 ) . A mixture of one part nitric acid with three of hydrochloric acid is called aqua regia ( because it dissolved gold, the King of Metals ) . It is unaffected by air and most reagents. It is found free in nature and associated with quartz, pyrite and other minerals. Two thirds of the world's supply comes from South Africa, and 2/3 of USA production is from South Dakota and Nevada. Gold is found in sea water, but no effective economic process has been designed ( yet ) to extract it from this source.

Geological specimens are known in which the element has an isotopic composition outside the limits for normal material. The difference between the atomic weight of the element in such specimens and that given in the table may exceed the stated uncertainty. Modified isotopic compositions may be found in commercially available material because it has been subjected to an undisclosed or inadvertent isotopic fractionation. Substantial deviations in atomic weight of the element from that given the table can occur. Range in isotopic composition of normal terrestrial material prevents a more precise atomic weight being given; the tabulated atomic weight value should be applicable to any normal material.

Check out the following URL:

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:16 - ID#365216)
I would like to take a survey of how many Kitcoites are planning on
or have already starting converting their electronic ( bank, mutual
fund, and other account assets ) to hard assets or physical cash
prior to Y2K. I personally am planning on at least 30 %
conversion. My thought process is that if everything does go
haywire, physical PMs will most likely skyrocket ( 1000% or more )
more than making up for what I lost by not converting the remaining
70 %. If the electronic funds are not totally lost but merely
awaiting "reassembly" in cyberspace, I will have enough cash on
hand to tide me over during the wait. Of course, a store of food
and other household goods will help to slow expenditure rates as well.
Some financial advisors such as Don McIlvany recommend 30% physical
PM as a matter of course irregardless of Y2K anyway.

Please indicate amount ( % ) of your portfolio you intend to have in
physical Precious Metal assets and cash for Y2K and if you believe there
is a threat from a banking crisis or not.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:20 - ID#350179)
Pop goes the POG
O.K., it was only $0.80 :- )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:21 - ID#286230)
Anyone figure out how to get Canadian exchanges into mytrack?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:22 - ID#401460)
White House Panic
National Securtiy Leak


(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:25 - ID#219363)
Can anyone recommend a really good, I mean presentation quality software package to do 2- and 3-D graphs of data, etc. Interested in something that has all the stops, something to generate up some pretty nifty looking stuff. Thanks in advance.

Crystal Ball
(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:26 - ID#287407)
Molecules you should know about
the molecule "AUtopsy" is dedicated to Dr. Kevorkian.
the molecule "GOLDilocks" is dedicated to Abby Joseph Cohen

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:29 - ID#219363)
Software - More
Be even better if it'll export the 3-D graphs in some format that I can load into my 3-D software ( something like Adobe Dimensions or Bryce ) and manipulate as a 3-D model. I'm probably pushing my luck on that one *grin*.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:32 - ID#350179)
Keep me posted on what you find - ( 3d presentations ) -
( Looking for new ways to look at the same old stuff )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:33 - ID#30345)
Might want to check out Mathcad.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:37 - ID#226327)
I just sent an e-mail to customer service at MyTrack using the Tell Track feature asking them about Canadian exchanges. You might want to do the same.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:39 - ID#288466)
I just discovered this system today, and am looking at the ( working ) demo model. Pretty powerful stuff, I think; take a look.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:42 - ID#286230)
Ok will do. Funny it says it handles the Canadian exchanges but gives no directions on how to enter them.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:44 - ID#266105)

0%, no.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:46 - ID#30345)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:50 - ID#233199)
Hey! Somebody get nuked or something?
Gold is up $.90 !!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:50 - ID#411259)
..... General .....

Your post of reportability requirements is an excellent piece of research and necessary information for anybody considering taking possession of gold. There are one ore two clarifications I would like to make, but I am late for an appointment. Will try to address the issue later.

I agree with most of your conclusions, particularly the avoidance of high priced coins to avoid confiscation which, to my opinion, is the reddest of herrings.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:52 - ID#288466)
10%, maybe *

* depends ( 1 ) on the power grid response to Y2K, and ( 2 ) Y2K hysteria in the general population. Most banks will have enough mission-critical services converted and validated to get by, IMHO.

Loose Lips
(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:54 - ID#31764)
Envy (Software)
There's a stats package program sold by SPSS, Inc. called Systat that allows you to do some pretty nifty 3D graphics. It also allows you to rotate the graphic to get the best angle. I'm quite sure SPSS, Inc. has an internet site.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:54 - ID#33164)
Another Nail?
Has this been posted yet?
TUE NOV 24 1998 23:52:09 UTC
**World Exclusive*

WASHINGTON -- The Clinton administration is facing the most massive leak of classified foreign policy documents since the publication of the Pentagon papers more than two decades ago during the Vietnam war, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

"The impeachment proceedings are going to have seemed like a picnic, before we get though with this," said one White House official.

The papers, totaling more than 20,000 pages, according to sources who have read them, include a history of the secret negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea, describing the failed policy of trying to buy off North Korea to forego its nuclear weapons policy. They describe in great detail the intelligence and policy failures that led to the detonations of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan this year.

Most embarrassing, the papers appear to corroborate, according to sources who have read them, allegations by a former U.N. arms inspector that the Clinton administration concealed from Congress and the public details regarding Saddam Hussein's ambitious program to develop nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

The papers also reveal new details on the Clinton policy towards China in which the White House allowed ballistic missile technology exports to China at the behest of wealthy Democratic campaign contributors.

News of the massive leak of classified foreign policy documents caught senior White House officials by surprise on the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend... MORE

Two Washington newspaper editors have reviewed the papers, which have been obtained by left-wing reporter Murray Waas.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:59 - ID#219363)
@Loose Lips
It's funny you just posted that, first thing I saw when the forum came back up on the screen. I was just about to post a link to that site because the software looks pretty cool. Of course, anything that has onsite training as an option, well, might not be cheap *grin*. Here's a linke that had a bunch of awesome charts and graphs their customers had created with the package.

@Others: Thanks for the links, checking it out now.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 13:59 - ID#269469)
3d modeling

Mathematica does real-time 3d modeling ( and so much more ) . Expensive tho, the student version is around $150 and I've heard commercial copies are around $1500. Highly recommended to anyone crunching numbers or in school. Also available is an add-on for using OpenGL syntax, a nice way to prototype OpenGL code in realtime ( used it in my graphics course ) .

and no, I'm not on commission. ; )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:00 - ID#288466)
This story has been out since yesterday....I find it most interesting that none of the Washington News services ( AP, Reuters, etc. ) have made mention of it.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:13 - ID#33164)
Silverbaron@catalyst for crash?
What effect will this have on the markets if it's true ,do you think?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:13 - ID#280214)
General's poll on allocation of investment portfolio
2% in Bank checking/savings accounts {limited to day-to-day working cash}
0% in CDs
0% in Mutual funds
0% in Bonds
0% in Stocks
0% in IRAs, etc.
0% in Life Insurance, etc.
0% in Home Equity
0% in misc. other investment paper
95% in inventory, equipment supplies, grub, guns, ammo
2% in physical Gold and Silver
1% in Cash

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:16 - ID#288466)
The Mathematica system looks VERY impressive.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:21 - ID#288466)
For Slick Willie - my bet is zero effect. I think he'll drop over dead from a not-sexually transmitted disease before they'll ever remove him from office.

As far the effect of such news in causing a crash...who the heck knows....Surely there has already been enough to cause that, to no lasting effect.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:21 - ID#280214)
General - banking crisis?
You bet! - I expect 100% meltdown.
Thus I plan to have remaining account balances spent by 01/01/00
and start checking accounts in January with maybe 2 digit balances.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:31 - ID#33164)
Thanks Silverbaron
Seems serious to me , here down-way-under....more so than Monica?

Kitco so very slow at this time of night-must go, so Good-Night..

A Very Happy Thanksgiving to you All!!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:32 - ID#339274)
field of mushrooms
clh qtr run,baby run .: )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:35 - ID#339274)
sold 21 3/8,watching paint dry

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:35 - ID#219363)
What can you do with Mathematica ? I used it to run some simple equations in college but it's been a while and I don't know what it does these days. Gave up on the web site, too friggin slow *grin*.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 14:43 - ID#237299)
Fergie: @your charts- Thank you for posting them.
This is *not* a criticism- but only a comment about your excellent charts. While studying your chart, I found that the variations in your S&P/gold ratio could not be easily converted into any useful meaning, simply because there are too many complex factors influencing the spread. Sometimes it is caused by political factors sometimes by market factors and sometimes by economic factors. Further complicating the picture is the interaction of wars and the rise and fall in the dollar. ( Your gold is priced in dollars- rather than some form of multi-currency weighted value. Perhaps using Dabchick's weighted dollar/gold values would at least remove one muddying element. )

The large change in 1929 is obviously market driven, the change after 1945 is post war expansion, the early 70's narrowing was Nixon's political/economic decisions to stop maintaining gold's price, then there was the Hunt Bros silver/gold mania stage- and currently the double whammy of racing stack market and political suppression of gold's dollar value.

So, as much as I tried to eke some meaning form the charts- I could not. However, it is clear that if you remove the peaks and valleys from the aforementioned political, economic, and market aberrations- there is almost a steady 30 degree slope in diminished purchasing power of the dollar price of gold in terms of the S&P.

This diminished purchasing power is shown so strongly in your second chart as to make me draw my breath. Using your graph of the inflation weighted values of the two price indexes it is stunning that from the civil war forward- gold has suffered steady, nonstop erosion of investment value. And the only time it came close to crossing the line was during the Hunt Brother's artificial mania. Even in the years during the great depression it only came close

As a gold bug, I can only say this has left me soberly dismayed- and feeling chastened..

I thank you for the charts. It has given this gold bug much to reconsider regarding my investment ideas.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:15 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Price of crude oil on October 1st: $15

Price of crude oil today: $11.70 ( lows of the year and multi-year lows )

Date: Thu Oct 01 1998 03:15

cherokee ( @....tonto.nat'l.forest......... ) ID#288232:

just for the record.....crude is a buy....

this not to bolster my current ( increasing ) some have alluded....

i ride alone against the wind, and she is my friend....

dgtrygf...and there is only one dotssm....

war...look at know the future...


(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:17 - ID#23746)
0% cd's bonds etc.
10% precious
85% G's
5% cash

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:18 - ID#430221)
Good read from the doctor.
Making Money the Old Fashioned Way--Printing It

Our currency, the beloved Federal Reserve Note, is printed by the Bureau
of Engraving and Printing on 15th Street in Washington, D.C., and in
Pyongyang. The Pyongyang printing is unauthorized, and small-time---only
about 20 million yearly.

Economies are collapsing, some faster and earlier than others. One of
them is that of North Korea, where government income falls far short of
meeting expenses. Of course, that is true of nearly all governments,
which solve the problem, in many instances, by printing money. The North
Koreans are doing that also, but the money they're printing is ours, and
why not! No one wants North Korean money. It's not that there's nothing
behind it: there's nothing behind ours, either. Neither Treasury nor
Federal Reserve will give you anything for it. But you can buy all
manner of wonderful things with dollars, and not much with the North
Korean stuff.

Besides, the North Koreans aren't insiders in the currency game.
International financiers just don't take their money seriously. It would
be futile, therefore, to print up large quantities of it for
international use. The North Koreans have decided, therefore, to raise
revenue by the sale of dope, and the printing of federal reserve notes.

It is a foregone conclusion that our own government regards this
activity with distaste. In a real sense, however, it is a minor
blessing. A major concern of our government is our economy, and means of
stimulating it. If the North Koreans print up 20 million dollars and buy
American goods with it, that's a nice little economic boost, and nobody
had to borrow the 20 million to accomplish it. If the Koreans had
borrowed twenty "legitimate" million, the final amount repaid might have
been 25 or 30 million. In other words, the total amount of money, after
repayment, would have been reduced by five or ten million: hardly a
stimulus to our economy. By simply printing the 20 million, the economy
was enriched by that amount, with no need for repayment of a single
cent. A blessing!

It is the burden of debt which is crushing productivity in America, and
the world in general. A moment's reflection will show that debt cannot
be paid when all money comes into existence as a loan from a single
source which demands back more than was loaned. Indeed, if only the
principal were to be repaid, without interest, the money supply would
shrink to nothing, since all the money had been borrowed. On the other
hand, tangible money, such as precious metals, decried by the bankers as
a "barbaric relic," does not enter circulation as a loan. It needn't be
returned to the earth, much less with interest. Once in use as money, of
course, it can be loaned at interest, but if the interest burden
eventually becomes oppressive, it can be relieved by producing more of
the money from its source, the earth. Natural gas is obtained from the
earth, and I imagine that utilities lend one another natural gas when it
becomes short in one location or another. They can repay when demand
tapers and they have produced enough natural gas to meet their needs and
permit the debt to be eradicated. Money is unique in being the only
thing ( sic! ) which can be loaned, but never repaid. Actually, this is
only possible because money is no thing.

Counterfeiting, however, permits repayment without further borrowing. It
is as capable of producing high production and employment as borrowed
scrip. While there are laws against it, those laws are obviously
designed to favor the interests of the sanctioned counterfeiter, who
obviously does not relish competition, especially from a source which is
content to merely spend the money into existence, rather than lend it.
The interest on the borrowed stuff approaches a billion dollars per
working day, enough to make its creators protective of their franchise.

Moreover, it would be hard to sustain a charge of counterfeiting, since
any definition of "counterfeit" that would apply to the Korean stuff
would also apply to that produced in Washington. The conviction rate
against counterfeiters ( unauthorized ) is, admittedly, almost 99%, but
those convictions were handed down in courts owned and operated by the
counterfeiters, and sustained by their activities. The jurors, moreover,
had been told that they were to decide only the facts, and accept the
"law" as presented to them by the judge. This is a perversion of the
truth, but a people that accept funny money will accept funny law from
funny judges.

Morally, of course, counterfeiting is unacceptable. It is a form of
stealing by deception. The person who exchanges his homestead for a
gilt-covered brick, thinking it solid gold, has obviously been cheated,
as has the person who exchanges his homestead for a series of "notes"
which are not, by any definition of the term, genuine. The fact that the
government, which has a vested interest in the acceptance of those notes
( they are "obligations" of the United States ) declares it legal to
tender them, is irrelevant from a moral standpoint. Wrong doesn't become
right when the government announces that, for this particular
wrongdoing, there will be no punishment.

The problem with counterfeiting therefore, is not legal, but moral, and
economic as well. If everyone, or even every government, could ease
economic problems by printing a "sound" currency, the explosion of
prices resulting from this inflation would only accentuate the
underlying economic problems. This is why governments limit
counterfeiting to monopolies of like-minded individuals who become, de
facto, if not de jure, the government, though unelected and unknown to
the general populace. A moment's reflection, however, reveals that there
would be no need for unauthorized counterfeiting, nor any bad
consequences resulting from either doing it or not doing it, if the
money was sound in the first place. In other words, the problems which
stimulate the Koreans to counterfeit, as well as those resulting from
excessive counterfeiting, "legal" or not, are inherent in the "money"
itself. Like any narcotic, fiat money produces a delightful intoxication
in the beginning, with no obvious ill-effects. Prolonged use destroys,
however; and does so whether one continues, increasing the dosage daily,
or stops cold turkey and succumbs to withdrawal effects. There is no
middle ground, although survival is possible is cure is undertaken
before the condition becomes critical.

In the meantime, the infusion of a paltry 20 million in counterfeit from
North Korea is a sort of refreshing breeze, giving the addicts a little
boost without the "hard" stuff. If, in addition, it gives rise to some
thought about counterfeiting, its nature, and the circumstances which
make it necessary, it is an unqualified boon.

Dr. Paul Hein
23 November 1998

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:18 - ID#280214)
Obsidian - searching for a long term store of value
Since from your last post Gold doesn't fill the bill. Try freeze-dried or dehydrated food. I have some 27 year old Wilson Meat Bars which are still okay. Every few years I eat one just to see if they are still good. They are! So lay in a few hundred pounds of food with shelf lives of decades.
Ammo is also good for long term. Folks are still shooting WWII vintage ammo! If the Clintonistas succeed in getting destablizing taggants in all new ammo so that it becomes duds in a year or two, then any of the currently manufactured ammo will be worth many times its current value since it will store long enough for grandkids to use in time of need.
Clothes, shoes, boots, etc. also have indefinite lifetimes.
Store of value in the basics: food, shelter {incl. clothes} and means to defend them. {hopefully we will still be able to obtain water and some source of fuel - even if only dried grass as used by old nomads of the steppes}

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:31 - ID#350179)
Is the paint dry yet?
Dump time any minute now ( unless vacation started early ) .

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:34 - ID#147201)
Silverbaron re JMP
When you see the potential, how about a comment re JMP. Many thanx.Charlie

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:38 - ID#119358)
@Educational Reality Check (self imposed).......
Date: Sun Jul 26 1998 07:15
STUDIO.R ( @surfing the faulted plane..................... ) ID#288369:
I, studio, hereby predict a massive and destructive earthquake in southern to central California running from Brawley, through Riverside on up to Gilroy. This tragedy will occur between Aug.15 and Sept. 23.
There is nothing that can be done, other than to worry and wait.
I can make no other comment on this. nostrastudio.

Return to Kitco Homepage
Happiest Thanksgiving to All!!!.....I am very, very thankful for my friends@KitcO have been so kind and tolerant of me...and I pray that the Gods may bring great joy to each of your hearts tomorrow.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:42 - ID#284192)
Obsidian--thanks for your feedback.
Please do not be shy about any thoughts on my charts. I posted the charts because I, too, am seeking how to apply them to today's environment.

As to your first comment about the S&P/Gold chart being valued in dollars...I don't think it is, unless I am missing something ( and that could well be! ) The chart depicts how many ounces of gold is required to "buy" one unit of the S&P Stock Index. I suppose that the medium through which the "purchase" is made is in dollars, but the relationship of gold to stocks is unaffected by the medium ( the dollar ) , yes?

I also found the second chart sobering. Perhaps we should not look to gold to hugely increase in value, relative to other things. It has, however, been an extremely good "store of value."

Don't forget that the "price" of gold has been tampered with ( hampered? ) for virtually all of the history of the USA. The Civil War era and its aftermath ( from 1861 to 1879 ) was one of the few times in our history in which we were not on a gold standard. The only other time was the the current period, beginning in 1971, of course.

I believe that it is blatantly obvious that the price of gold is being manipulated now, and has been for many years. Heck, Greenspan and Wayne Angell have said as much. The bottom line is that for all the work I put into the charts there is little objective, non-manipulated data to go on.

However, the first chart clearly shows the RELATIVE values of gold vs. stocks, and that we are in record territory now. Stocks are clearly richly priced, relative to gold. Gold may just hold its value going forward, but that may look real good against a worldwide, devasting decline in stock prices, and the inevitable furnace that awaits fiat currencies. Even though the U.S.A. was on fiat money for a stretch around the time of Civil War, not all of the world was, as is the case now.

All IMVHO, of course. Please, everyone, keep these comments, criticisms, and analyses coming! I need help in interpreting the value of the information in them.

Thanks, Fergie

Gold Dancer
(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:46 - ID#430221)
A most happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I plan to relax, go dancing
with my girl friend and maybe a little sailing if the weather permits.
Asking for this in Seattle in the winter time is like asking for
rain in California in the Summer. It can be along wait. No internet
till Monday or Tuesday.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:47 - ID#237299)
Squirrel: 27 year old meat bars...
Uhnn, not right now thanks, I just ate. 8- )

I will always keep gold for other reasons, not the least being that it is my business, and my metal of trade. The best reason I keep it is because it is a pleasure to own and hold and also because it invokes a history that goes back much longer in time than our strange eye on the pyrimid paper.

Personally, I don't think we are going back to Davvie Crocket's age- the beast at the machine *still* need us little worker bees- otherwise no one to push the wheel round and round and tote dat bale, pick dat cotton. If I were to choose the item ( s ) of commerce that always come through- it would be articles of vice: ciggarettes, booze, etc. ( in demand by the victors as well as the vanquished )

Fergie's charts just shocked me a bit- if his figures are accurate, and correctly charted- than, at least for the S&P, there has been no time since Lincoln that gold has been a particularly good investment.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:50 - ID#254288)
Need help in understanding, because, its the reason most of us are here

Many of us are here because we expect/hope gold to spike to a level where we can sell gold coins or even non-stoned jewelry at a profit.

Generally speaking the cost of bullion coins offer a direct route without the hassle of becoming an expert, as is pre-requisit for numismatics or art works.

Getting off coins and on to jewelry art without precious stone settings, I'm finding and "hopefully correct' that such costs run from three to four times ( 3X-4X ) the value of their gold content.
Actually my calcs for several such pieces averaged 3.83 times their gold content, so 'if correct'. melt down would require gold prices of about $1130 per ounce,using todays gold price.
This does not consider fees for collection, refining and restamping, interest, ect. plus the profit associated with a melt down operation.

I'm not jewelry buff, but the actual markup on the actual gold content of jewelry seems to lead one to finding a reasonable gold price at which gold jewelry will be melted down.
Bullion coins are a whole nother ballgame, and I am assuming that indivigually held coin and jewelry are about equal in their amounts relative to the above ground gold supply.

Watching GVC on TV and using an example piece they sell.

10 grams of 14k gold selling for $246.00, which is below list price.

10x14/24 = 5.833grams, or 5.833/31.103 = 0.1875 ounces of contained gold

Actual gold content cost = 0.1875x296 = $55.51

Number of times above gold content = 246/55.51 = 4.43x

This is not to imply that this item is overcharged.

Workmanship, Artisan ability etc. play their fair part, but for above piece, gold would have to be atleast $1311 for meltdown to be considered.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 15:51 - ID#219363)
Gold's Value
I'd be interested in seeing a chart that showed a plot of the number of ounces of gold thought to exist starting in the year 1800 through 1998 ( minus loses due to manufacturing, etc, just the gold that could be traded ) vs. the number of humans on the planet during those years. My guess is that although we have a lot more humans, we also have higher technology at work on pulling ore out of the ground and processing it, so my bet would be that there is actually more gold per human now than there was way back when. That ratio would be the ratio I'd use to determine the "real" POG. Kind of mis-leading since the "real" value of an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:05 - ID#219363)
Fergie's Charts
Keep in mind that even though the S&P has made nice gains on gold, it's made nice gains on just about everything else to. The S&P has an almost unbeatable record, especially against the dollar. Gold vs. the dollar might be more appropriate as a measure, as gold and the dollar are not "investments" but stores of value. The true essense of gold would appear in a graph of gold vs. the S&P for the years 920B.C. through 1050A.D., I think you'll find gold did quite well vs. the S&P index during those years.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:15 - ID#237299)
Yes.. well, buying the dollar valued S&P in a dollar valued gold, does tend to obscure what is actually taking place. You *are* using a dollar price of gold regardless whether that dollar is used to buy grams or ounces. Yes?

Gold may be a good store of value- but looking at your charts it is clear that *over decades* the stock market has been a much better store of value. Even in times of crisis- the depression, the world wars, the Korean war, Vietnam, etc- the stock market has done better- *if your figures are accurate* So, I can see no compelling evidence to think that another crisis- y2k will prove different. Will I dis-hoard my gold- no. Will I think about shifting my assets around- maybe so.

You say that your first chart shows that stocks are clearly overpriced relative to gold. Not so fast. While may be conventional wisdom- it is *not* indicated by the charts- they remain mute if gold is underpriced- the stocks are overpriced- or a combination- perhaps the correction will be a gradual decrease in stocks and a gradual increase in gold- bringing your chart back into old territory.

Your second chart is very informative- the first one requires ( for me ) a lot of musing to figure out what it is saying.

Keep posting- good work!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:19 - ID#147201)
fergie re charts
I have the charts bookmarked, but I can only get the first century to print. What did I do wrong ??

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:19 - ID#33024)
Gold (technical analysis+charts)>

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:21 - ID#33024)
gold(technical analysis+charts)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:22 - ID#219363)
JustDiedBecauseEveryoneWentHome *grin*

Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone, off to watch some tube and get ready for some serious food, sitting around, and visiting with friends and family. 'Tis a beautiful thing this life, hope it hangs around on each of us for a long time to come. Wear it well.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:27 - ID#290456)
Kairos...the book
Looks like some pretty good science in here, after you get past the platitudes...


(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:35 - ID#350179)
A thanksgiving offering to newbies

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:45 - ID#343171)
MM good idea on the offering, here is one

great charts

Charles Keeling
(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:45 - ID#344225)

R-TSE For Romarco Minerals on the Toronto Exchange

ARP-V For Argentina Resources on the Vancouver Exchange.

myTrack displays almost anything that is on any exchange in
Canada, even without the -TSE or -V. Trading in these
Canadian Stocks is a different matter. I use E-Trade.
They dont have the Canadian Stocks on line, so I have to
make a phone call to an 800 #.

myTrack is great foor following the indexes like XAU, XOI,
INDUS, OEX, etc. Then you still have pleanty of room for
tracking another dosen or so stocks.

Try the right click on your mouse for some very interesting

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:45 - ID#237299)
Jack: about melting jewelry
As a jeweler, I can tell you that you are ill advised waiting for you jewelry's gold to increase beyond it's melt value as an investment strategy. Buy bullion for that.

This is the comparison I use with my customers: think about buying a car and then a short time later selling it for the scrap iron content. This is silly, no? Why did you buy the car?:- for utility and for pleasure- and sometimes for sex appeal or prestige.

The same with jewelry. You paid the artist for his labor, the shopkeeper for his service in providing the wares, and the industry for the metal making it up. It was bought mainly for sex appeal or prestige, or self reward.

When I see people come in to sell jewelry for content it is usually for 5 reasons:

Because they are in distress financially
Because it is broken or unrepairable
Because it is a dated fashion, and they want exchange or re-make
Because of revenge or remorse ( wanting no memories of that s.o.b. )
Because it is stolen

Obviously, I want no part of the last reason- but the other 4 are valid reasons to "scrap it".

Well, that said- it's time for *this* jeweler to get back to work, or I may be forced to melt my own jewelry to pay the bills. ( *reason number one* ) ;- )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:48 - ID#13953)
Asset distribution poll
70% Land ( ranches and rentals )
10% Money Mkts, CD's, checking
7% Cattle
3% physical Gold
2.5% PM funds
2% Bond funds
2% Bearx
2% Cash
1% Food and supplies
.5% IRA stock funds
Retirement plans and insurance not included.
Some of this could change before the end of next year.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

P.S. Today is our 27th anniversary.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:48 - ID#286230)
Gold Producers Plan

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:55 - ID#286230)
Charles Keeling. Thanks for the direction. I can now get CP NTl etc but the smaller stocks on Alberta and Montreal still seem to be unavailable. So far I'm sticking with Quicken and Canada Stock Watch.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:58 - ID#317193)
Cowgirl...obviously a...
child bride...congrats.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 16:59 - ID#206196)
Fergie's charts?
Can anyone tell me how far back I need to go to find all these charts of Fergie's to which everyone here has been referring recently? TIA

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:03 - ID#219363)
Anybody just see that interview on CNBC about Asia's situation ? I'm always impressed with the questions. One analyst is flat out saying that Asia is still bust, that it hasn't seen a bottom, that things are ugly, that the US markets are riding momentum, that they aren't discounting well, that equities are over-valued, etc, etc, and what question do we get from the talking head, "So you don't think the problem has been cured ?" Somebody wake me up because I gotta be dream'n. I'm a bear, I'm a bear, somebody poke me with a stick.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:04 - ID#254288)

Thanks, Happy to learn that we have not to consider melt down of existing gold jewelry as a factor adding to the ready supply, that may tend, to effect a better gold price.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:06 - ID#219363)
Fergie's Charts (Repost)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:07 - ID#284225)
You're quick!


(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:07 - ID#284225)
Chas--have you tried printing with your paper setting
on "landscape" vs. "portrait"?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:11 - ID#43460)
Asset distribution anectdotes
Cowgirl raises an interesting point, the fact that asset distribution changes. I recall that just a couple of years ago I had the bulk of my assets tied up in timber land. Although I sold for health reasons it was apparantly also just the right time as the fellow I sold to lost money in the face of a falling market.

For those who dont know, the 'Merkan pulpwood industry is going through a slow implosion now on the basis of competition from far eastern producers. US pulpwood costs maybe $350 per ton to produce but foreign can be imported for $100 per. So the US paper industry is in a big shakedown; I figure that by next spring it may look about like what the gold industry did in 1981. I suspect the big producers may even bow to inevitable market pressures and start selling off their lands. Right now I know of at least one company which could be sensitive to a hostile takover designed to sell its assets off to land hungry suburbanites. ( 8-^] )

I will take the liberty of reproducing this NCPA Digest quote, illustrating another difficulty in holding some classes of assets ie land in The Peoples Republic of 'Merka


Vice President Al Gore has put his weight behind a plan to take

productive private property in south Florida, flood it and return

it to swampland. The plan was originally developed by the U.S.

Forest Service and the South Florida Water Management District.

Scientists and economists -- not to mention landowners whose

property rights would be trampled -- have serious misgivings

about such a project.

o Although the government already owns 54 percent of the

land in south Florida below Lake Okeechobee, supporters of

the project want to requisition another 170,000 acres of

productive farmland and pasture.

o In the early part of this century, the federal government

stepped in and drained this part of the Everglades,

constructing a series of dams and levies to create the

farmland -- a process which project advocates now propose

to reverse.

o Engineers are concerned about the plan's reliance on

technologies never used on so vast a scale and on such

porous land as that in south Florida.

o Sugar growers are already preparing to increase prices,

since much of their land would be taken out of production

and supplies will decrease if the plan goes through.

Then there is another catch. Announcing plans now to take

private property decades prior to the actual condemnation

immediately destroys the value of the land and ensures that the

government will get the property for practically nothing, since

no one would want to buy land slated for a government takeover.

Moreover, no money has been budgeted for the land being taken.

Legal experts say the scheme violates the Fifth Amendment's Just

Compensation clause, which forbids the government from taking

land without paying for it.

Source: Nancie Marzulla ( Defenders of Property Rights ) , "Property

Rights Risk in Everglades Plan," Washington Times, November 25,


For more on the Environment go to "

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:13 - ID#286230)
Amazing graphs. I wonder why they are such a surprise to the Kitco group ( including me ) . Certainly the long term store of value idea has taken another hit. I have some 1985 gold bought at $295--seems to holding its value all too well : ) .

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:16 - ID#45173)
Envy: Poke (growl)
Yep. Cognative dissonance rules. If I've learned anything from investing and from my experience in business, it is that the most deadly sin is arrogance. It is arrogance not greater fool theory that's driving the Internet stocks. It is pure arrogance to believe that one has the unique ability to see that a stock in an internet company like with no earnings or sustainable business model of any kind is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

I finally returned your email. Been too busy...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:17 - ID#284225)
Obsidian--I stand corrected...

I agree that the S&P/Gold chart is not necessarily telling us that stocks are rich compared to gold today. The ratio is saying that it is higher than it has been for about 200 years, but about today? You're right, who Knows? The past is not necessarily prologue to the future.

Depends on how much you believe that past readings have relevance to today, I guess.

Thanks, Fergie

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:22 - ID#284225)
Here are some more S&P/Gold charts for the technicians in the crowd...
First, a five year moving average in the ratio, since 1885.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:22 - ID#219363)
Sales of Existing Homes Increase, @EJ
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Sales of existing homes increased 2.1 percent in October, rising to a near-record level after two monthly declines. The increase reported today by the National Association of Realtors, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million from a rate of 4.69 million in September, leaves sales on track to set a record for all of 1998. Sales were the strongest since they hit a rate of 4.91 million in July, the most since the association began tracking them in 1968. The association is projecting 4.75 million sales for the year, up 12.6 percent from 1997.
@EJ: Got it! I'll get back to you after vacation. : ) Have a happy Thanksgiving.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:26 - ID#284225)
Next, a 10-year moving average

I am not a technician. Maybe these charts have NO value, but here they are!

thanks again, Fergie

P.S. Envy, help me out again if I've screwed up posting these, as well. Thx!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:30 - ID#286230)
Ya Envy--what does this on mean?
Fergie ( Next, a 10-year moving average )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:35 - ID#252150)
Screwed again by the greedy TSE floor traders/specialists. Their greed is
boundless. On Mon. I shorted 1k Alcan at 44.55 Cdn. Yesterday around 15 mins before the close the bid was 43 ask 43.30. I decided to keep it overnight, but just in case something weird happened put in a buy stop at 43.55. The 5th last to 3rd last trades were between 43 & 43.30. the 2 nd last ( at 1559 ) was at 43.55, which triggered my buy stop-which was the last trade. It's well known that they run stops & that's exactly what they did to me. This morn AL opened at 43.05 & traded as low as 42.75.
In short-they stole at least $500. from me, probably closer to $700.
I don't trade illiquid stocks because this happens all the time, but now it seems that we can't even be safe withh the big caps.
I have more respect for a mugger, than I do for those slimy bastards.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:35 - ID#284225)
About the real returns for the 198 years graph for gold and S&P..
I used the following web site to adjust the actual figures in my research, for inflation. It is based on the CPI. Perhaps a similar adjustment for the PPI might be different, as the CPI has tended to overstate inflation, I have heard.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:39 - ID#147201)
fergie re charts
Yeah, I tried both- landscape and portrait. What else??

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:40 - ID#286230)
fergie's inflation site
If I understand what is happening--according to fergie's site my 1985 $295 gold had to get to $444 in 1997 for me to break even.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:41 - ID#284225)
Sorry to bombard everyone with all these charts at once
I've been researching all this information for a year, and now I drop them on you in the one day. Now I'll have nothing to contribute for another year! I've shot my wad! {:^ )


(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:44 - ID#284225)
chas--you got me. Anyone help chas print out these charts?
Maybe I can e-mail you my Excel Spreadsheet. ( Wait, we've already tried that haven't we? And it didn't work. ) If you'll email me your address, I'll snail mail a copy off to you.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:45 - ID#252150)
Greenspam the incompetent@Yesterday's post on AG by the fellow who knew
him well reinforces my opinion, which I have posted here several times. He was a total abject failure in the private sector.
There is no doubt that he is almost solely responsible for the coming collapse & debacle which will impoverish 10s of millions of Americans, not to mention billions globally.
He will go down in history as the worst & most despised Fed Chairman ever.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:50 - ID#284225)
Yes, Selby
In inflation adjusted terms, got has gotten slaughtered since 1980; much more so than the nominal dollar decline. $295 in today's decimated dollar is worth about $73 in 1971. And we all know what happened to the price of gold after 1971. ZOOM!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:50 - ID#113316)

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:51 - ID#212323)
I would like to wish everyone visiting Kitco a most pleasant Thanksgiving.
I hope this Holiday finds you and your family to be of good health and good cheer!

got gravy?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:51 - ID#284225)
Typo: got=gold Ugh!
Brain lapse...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:51 - ID#252150)
Starry, starry night....For Mike Sheller
Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson went on a camping trip. After a good meal and a bottle of wine, they lay down for the night and went to sleep. Some hours later, Holmes awoke and nudged his faithful friend. "Watson, look up at the sky and tell me what you see."

Watson replied, "I see millions and millions of stars."

"What does that tell you?"

Watson pondered for a minute. "Astronomically, it tells me that there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets. Astrologically, I observe that Saturn is in Leo. Horologically, I deduce that the time is approximately a quarter past three. Theologically, I can see that God is all powerful and that we are small and insignificant. Meteorologically, I suspect that we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. What does it tell you?"

Holmes was silent for a moment, then spoke.

"Watson, you fool, some thief has made off with our tent!"

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:56 - ID#284225)
Sorry to post and run, folks, but gotta go
Dinner beckons!

Talk to 'ya later.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!


(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:56 - ID#43460)
fergie, charts look like they have been cut off.
Could you post the charts for year 113 through 125 please? ( 8-^] )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:57 - ID#251175)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 17:58 - ID#252150)
Sig@Read yesterday's post.
Then again, if you are a true believer, don't read it. It might introduce a little doubt, even to a fanatic.
Enjoy your turkey while 100s of millions of innocent people globally are going hungry, because of ill-founded, imperialistic policies that AG had a major role in formulating.

Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:00 - ID#212323)
James...I must disagree with your recent Greenspan-slam.
Mr. Greenspan may indeed, as you suggest, go down in history more infamous than famous, but that is only due to a population's zeal to find fault in others when it appropriately lies within themselves. Mr. Greenspan did not solicit each individual, recommending full or leveraged participation in a market bubble. In fact, an objective review would show that, as a gold-bug, he did admirable with the situation and job-parameters that he 'inherited'.

Leave your venom elsewhere.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:05 - ID#219363)
The FED doesn't matter. Greenspan can be good or bad, lower or raise rates, it just wouldn't matter one bit in the big scheme of things. The problem in the US isn't high interest rates, so low interest rates won't fix it. The problem is declining exports. The FED can't fix that, the export markets have to fix themselves. Our exports to Brazil just dropped negative recently from a 20 percent positive, what could the FED have done about that ? Nothing, Brazil's problem is that it can't sell oil and other commodities. REAL SIMPLE: We had a global market, and now we only have a domestic market. We have too much economic activity, too much production for just our domestic market, and it's building up inventories and lowering overseas earnings. The economy HAS to slow down, no way around it. The only thing holding this puppy above water is consumer spending and that can't be financed on negative savings and 125 percent mortgages forever. It's in the cards, man. People on Kitco said 6 months ago that Greenspan was going to get blamed for something he couldn't do a thing about, and he will and is. Wrong place at the wrong time.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:16 - ID#401183)
U.S. Populace: Ignorant Sheep???
Cannot help but to take a jab at all these know-all economists who are complaining, raving, warning in the news about negative savings rates and increased spending by U.S. populace, warning savings are the basis for future investment for the economy, and berating them as ignorant sheep. Maybe the U.S. Populace are smart enough to know and see from what has happened to the rouble that paper is worthless and that acquiring physical elements, materialistic items, commodities, etc., whatever they may be and ridding oneself of worthless paper will avoid the rush to convert worthless paper later like the Russians had to deal with with the colapse of their worthless currency! Not so stupid after all! Just too stupid to acquire the right commodities ( gold and siver ) , although sales of AMERICAN EAGLES and other gold and silver coins are at record levels!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:26 - ID#13953)
gagnrad @ the Florida Swamps
Algore is more than a little confused about environmental policy. Swamp lands produce Methane gas, a so called greenhouse gas that will contribute "significantly" to global warming. This is the same gas that is produced when cows belch. So why is it OK for swamps, but not for cows Algore? Global Warming hype always seems to ignore the effects of volcanos and swamps and the fact that the climate made significant changes long before Man built cars and factories. ( Visit a fossil bed or natural history museum. ) The government does not have to have money for taking the farm land in Florida or anywhere else. All they have to do is flood it and regulate the farmers so they can't use it. The farmers could still be allowed to own and pay taxes on the land as long as they don't try to raise a crop on it. That is not a "taking" according to current government practices. Happens all over the West; the attempt to pass compensation requirements could not pass in the last Congress.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:26 - ID#251175)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:27 - ID#45173)
Best holiday wishes to all
Glad for any occasion for friends and family to get together. Got to tell you that I HATE "Thanksgiving." The USA is not the only country that formed when a bunch of Euro misfits got kicked out and travelled to the new world to slaughter the indigenous people to make room for themselves. It's just that Americans are the only people with the bad taste and insensitivity to commemorate the unseemly event with a national holiday. That's twisted.

So join me tomorrow as I'll raise a glass to the American Indian and say, "Thanks for letting us wipe you out so we have this land for our great nation to live in today!"


Aragorn III
(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:32 - ID#212323)
A fine thought! and a good way to look at things...fully divesting themselves of dollars that are akin to ticking timebombs. But as you say, they are not spending very wisely.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:32 - ID#254288)

Think of it in other ways:
The money could have been invested in something that lost all its value over that time.
If it earned 5% for 14 years, in that case it would be worth about $584.
It could have been used to buy an uneeded item that lost most all its value over time. LGB would place gold in this category, using hindsight.
The bottom line is that no one can predict the future, just plan for the best.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:39 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.38. The 233 day moving average is 29.10

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:41 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .254. The 233 day moving average is .249

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:43 - ID#317193)
@ aussidave...counterparty risk....
Do I smell derivatives starting too be viewed as "risky"...wake up folks...commodities falling...debt defaults...paper assets flying high...liquidity crunch...all is not as the world believes. and enjoy life.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:43 - ID#284191)
gagnrad, re years 113-125
the moving averages charts only go for 113 years ( 1885 through 1998 ) .

the time frame are different than for my first two charts. Sorry for the confusion! :^ )


(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:48 - ID#391172)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:51 - ID#284191)
Selby--And another way to think about your gold holding
Jack's right. Hindsight is perfect.

If you had held the S&P500 at its peak day in 1968 ( and a lot did ) , and held on, you'd have experienced a decline of over 95% of that value, relative to gold!

And where is the S&P500 relative to gold today? 42.7% HIGHER than it was on that peak day in 1968! Yea, stocks could double from here. But I think ( IMHO ) that what the stock/gold ratios ( the Dow or the S&P 500 ) are telling us is the risk of holding stocks now is a LOT higher than it's been, ever. And not by a little bit, either!


(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:55 - ID#258273)
Current Asset Allocation

37.5% Real Estate
15% PM Stocks
10% Physical Metals
15% Personal Possessions ( guns, grub, ammo, camper, gear, trucks, jewelry, etc... )
2.5% Bearx
10% Cash
10% Internet Startups

Will be most of spending Cash, Bearx, and Internet Startups or PM stocks to build house on remote lakefront property next Summer. The property will be valuable in either a boom or meltdown.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:56 - ID#284191)
adjustment to previous post
That is, if one held the S&P 500 from 1968 *until 1980*, the decline in the value of stocks--relative to gold--was over 95%.

Sorry again for the confusion.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 18:59 - ID#252150)
Aragrorn111@AG a Gold Bug??He has proved to be the very antithesis of a GB
& is on record as saying that he is prepared to take whatever measures necessary to control the POG. If you were a true GB, you too would be disgusted with him. Instead, you indulge in wishy washy rationalizations.
Greenspam is nothing but a 2nd rate bureaucrat, who is more interested in maintaining his cushy, high paying job & benefits & getting the max pension, than doing the right thing for his Country.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:02 - ID#34883)
Shelton/new article, currency stability/gold

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:07 - ID#259221)
to Chas- re: printing Fergie's charts
Chas- If you have any legal sheets ( 8.5 X 14 ) the charts will print out completely if you use landscape mode.

Envy- Thanks earlier for reposting Fergie's charts for me.

Fergie- thanks for the charts

We do all have much for which to be thankful, don't we? Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. God bless you all!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:10 - ID#333123)
@The Skeptical Investor
I posted Issue No 15 on the weekend ( 21 November ) , at the usual URL:-

I have had an e-mail to the effect that this URL isn't working - anyone else had any problem with it?


(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:13 - ID#252150)
Envy@AG could have acted 2 years ago, before this bubble became
uncontrollable. He did'nt have the guts or integrity to do what was necessary at that time, as per the Economist. He richly deserves the ignominy & infamy that will be his legacy.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:16 - ID#290456)
fergie charts

I had the same problem printing them this morning. If you have MS photo editor, I think you can re-scale the GIF file to make it fit. Or, perhaps you could try saving it in a different format ( JPG or BMP ) then print the new format. Just guessing.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:25 - ID#233199)
The Kitco 3 day gold chart ...
...looks like snake what got runned over...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:31 - ID#34883)
articles of interest/esp.: 'Finacial Socialism' Socialism

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:31 - ID#333126)
those japanese loans
Nippon Credit another 1 Tril Yen in the hole

Japanese Banks have insufficient capital

5.78 Tril Yen seeked by big Japanese Banks

only 5.78 Trillion? hmm... more to come?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:31 - ID#72316)
@ James' 17.35
James, I am one of those slimy bastards you are referring to, and I happen to know and respect very much the registered trader on Alcan...

Since we went to computer trading a couple of years ago, I am not even sure how one sees the stop orders.. I can guarantee the alcan pro is more computer illiterate than I, and for sure he did not run alcan to trip your order.. This is not to say that some non client did not, perhaps from the very house where your order was entered.. These would be the likely suspects IMHO, if in fact someone did deliberately set it off.
Seems highly unlikely to me for 1000 shares though..


(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:35 - ID#190411)
The charts on tell the tale of the screwing that we get on a daily basis. Four of five days past have given the biggest down move in XAU in the last two minutes of trading. I wish that there was a way for mere mortals to pull the trigger at the last minute of trading where we could buy the golds at the closing price.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:37 - ID#72316)
@ Max
Max, it works fine for me..

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:39 - ID#190411)
@ Max Mosely
If this is the same URL that you sent in your email notification, I had no problem.
Keep it going with your commentary! The best to you.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:40 - ID#190411)
Sorry for the typo on your name, Max.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:47 - ID#219363)
Can't argue with that, two years ago it might have made a difference. The FED does just handle the US money supply though and there is only so much they can do with a single lever to pull. There are a lot of levers out there in the world and they aren't omnipotent. I'm not defending their decisions, just cutting them a little slack.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 19:57 - ID#333126)
more banana news

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:01 - ID#147201)
Bottom$ re charts
Yes, I have these 8.5 x 14. I should have thought about that. Many thanx for this, Charlie-- Maybe too much brandy???

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:04 - ID#391172)
Canadian market open tomorrow anyone?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:06 - ID#72316)
@ Erle
I would not be surprised if you could enter an order that stipulated that you got the closing price...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:07 - ID#72316)
neer do well

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:08 - ID#43349)
gold in the physical market has performed better than any other commodity in the last ten years

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:11 - ID#371242)

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:12 - ID#72316)
gold stuff

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:16 - ID#371242)
how can i post a chart here can someone explain

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:17 - ID#280214)
though I have been chastised before fer fergetting
A splendid store of value is booze.
27 year old Jack Daniels or Yukon Jack depending on your tastes.
And wine - oh yes, the wine. 27 year old something or other.
Gotta have something to go with the 27 year old cheese, crackers & meat bars.
Now if tobacco stores well, vacuum sealed, for 27 years we have it made!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:18 - ID#270227)
Feel free in AM ( as it hasn't been published yet ) to post this to Kitco. I
would appreciate your crediting the information per the following:

SteveH from the Stockman@meghits forum ran some technicals on MIQ.M and
here is what he came up with:

MIQ.M is showing positive indicators and may just now be commencing its
next leg up. Now is the time to put MIQ.M back onto your radar screens.
Here is why:

Closed up $.02 at $.28C. Relative strength index up 10 degree angle at 53.
CCI at -51 with 0 degree angle ( just flat and holding ) , meaning awaiting a
direction just having come of a six day down trend. Posit is 1 meaning it
is poised for a six day up trend, with this being day one. Stochasitic is
level and at the bottom of it channel, meaning it is ready to reverse to
the positive. William %R already breaking out and a leading indicator. On
Balance volume ( OBV ) pegged high and flat, no trend, meaning ready to go
higher ( or lower ) . Force still positive, meaning momentum is still on its

On the weekly chart, the OBV is forming a shallow cup and heading higher
with a 10% up angle. This is very bullish.

The stochastic and William %R is showing a wide-mouth flare on the weekly
chart that indicates a weekly up trend is just starting.

Summary: While awaiting news, MIQ.M is showing signs of a turnaround from
its eight day down trend. Prior to this downtrend the stock went up for 12
days -- 13 is the highest I have ever measured. The ratio of up to down
days is 13/8 or 1.625:1. That it is now starting an up trend again in view
of these indicators shows tenacity and momentum. I believe the stock will
break through its upper bollinger band and possibly reach $.37 to $.39C in
the very short term. In the intermediate time-frame MIQ.M still may attack
and conquor $.44 or higher. I look for increasing volume over the course of
the next five trading days. Conditions are highly favorable for a positive
news release that could carry the technical momentum higher and cause the
stock to track up an increasing upper bollinger band. In all conditions are
favorable for a mid-percentage increase in MIQ.M share price.


(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:19 - ID#252150)
Arby@You should know that stops don't go thru the computer. I guess it was
just a co-incident that the trade that triggered my stop was entered in the last min of trading & my stop was hit with literally seconds to spare.
He may seem like a nice guy. Do you remember the kid that shot all those people from the tower in Texas? They all said he was such a nice guy-helped the old ladies across the street, etc.
Ted Bundy was described as "a nice guy".

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:21 - ID#43349)
@THE Priest
Do as you would to make a comment, but instead of typing in your comment read the instrutions and follow the download link in the red box below the area you would normally type your text into.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:24 - ID#34883)
@Mike Sheller

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:24 - ID#252150)
Envy@In 96 the froth spread to SEAsia & culminated in the collapse of their
economies & currencies. Of course, Sorrows was their attack dog. I don't think it was just an unfortunate co-incident.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:27 - ID#72316)
James,, How would the pro on Alcan know there was a stop order on it???
He is sitting in front of a computer screen, just like me... There is some special terms book that no one ever looks at, with all or nones etc.. Perhaps stop orders, although I have never noticed any on my stocks of resposibility. That is why I said that IF you truly got screwed then it was most likely by someone at your own broker who was aware of your order...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:30 - ID#290202)
Congratulations to you and to your husband ( who seems to have a fine

talent in picking winners! ....hmmm....what's he think of gold's chances

27 years out? ..ok, 27 months? )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:30 - ID#72316)
For the hell of it, and if I remember, ( taking the next 2 days off ) , on monday I will check to see the last few trades and who made them..
What day was this that you got reamed?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:39 - ID#72316)
@ James
, I have known this man for 35 years,,, believe me he is one fine chap , and well liked... He is also not avaricious at all. As a matter of fact he has taken every Monday off for as long as I can remember, and goes home flat most every night.. You have to ask yourself... How many shares did someone have to buy to trigger your stop for 1000? Knowing Alcan, it was probably more then 1000 to get it there, hence this would be a foolish move.. Pros don't last who are fools...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:40 - ID#219363)
Fun w/ 3D software
Happy Thanksgiving Kitco.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:41 - ID#34883)
Worldy Poll Report

Mo in To
(Wed Nov 25 1998 20:57 - ID#347205)
Canuck markets
Neer do well,
Yes, the Canadian markets will be open tomorrow. BTW, a very, very happy Thanksgiving to all of our American friends on Kitco. All the best.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:26 - ID#252150)
Arby@Yesterday right at the close.
It was the 2nd last trade for 1500 shares that triggered my buy stop. I guess I should know better than to put in a stop. Another $500 lesson.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:28 - ID#432395)
Happy Thanksgiving, to all you Merkans.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:30 - ID#290202)
...went to
I asked him, "Well Doc, you gettin' ready for Y2K?"

"Ohh," he replied, "I don't think my little home computor will be bothered."

( ....uh oh, I thought, a non-believer... )

"You know Doc, I talk on thet thar Internet to some fine fellas who think

that the electric grids may be affected...."

"Bunch o' paranoids!" he opined, "If they would get off those drugs, maybe

they wouldn't be so paranoid!"

( ...editor's note: The aforegoing is sad, but a true rendition of our discourse. )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:33 - ID#290202)

Dang machine cut off...went to "the doctor's office" in previous header.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:38 - ID#350194)
@Mo in TO and ALL
Mo - If you are still lurking tonight - be advised that I received your e-mail about attending the Kitco Holiday get together in Toronto the other day and I replied immediately to you. In fact I replied about 4 times and they all came back as undeliverable. Today I contacted your provider to try and find out what the problem was. Have you unknowingly been missing a lot of e-mail lately? I would suspect that this is the case. Try writing me again at:> We will soon have you back on track. Happy Thanksgiving to All Americans who are giving Thanks this weekend!
ALL- Anyone and everyone wishing to attend the informal Kitcoite luncheon/dinner this holiday season in Toronto also please write to me at: ( Your e-mail WILL be kept confidential by moi! )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:38 - ID#147201)
RE Fergie's charts
Use landscape and put 8.5 X 14 in the tray. It works fine

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:42 - ID#254288)
A fine Thanksgiven to all at Kitco, and thanks Bart for providing this fine site

May happiness prevail in y'alls endeavors.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:47 - ID#333123)
@The Skeptical Investor
ERLE and arby: thanks!

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 21:51 - ID#371242)
all hell is about to break loose

(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:06 - ID#350194)
@ The Priest
Well - Some of us had been waiting all day for the word to materialize, as promised, and it did. I, for one, am relieved to see that your promised speech was not concerned with reading the last rites. One thing that would be a great help to many might be if you could explain the chart section by section so that we can clearly follow the whole reasoning process as to 'why' this chart portends a break-out. It does appear to me to be an excellent graph, but please, more point by point on this one for our edification. Thanks.

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:09 - ID#371242)
IF you did not understand the last one try this one

(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:14 - ID#293423)
@THE Priest
Gold to rise to the $365 range soon?

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:18 - ID#295111)


Here are some excerpts....

"This fits into what we have heard over the past several months:

1 ) an off market transaction was arranged to let Long Term Capital out of their 300 tonne plus short position,

2 ) unheard of easy credit terms were being offered to producers to sell forward,

3 ) a known credit squeeze was on by the lending community, except for the gold lending community.

"US is now leasing Gold."

"For 53 years the dollar has been the big enchilada. Gold was its only competition. That will all start to change in the months to come. As time goes by, and the euro is accepted more and more, the dollar will lose its monopoly as a reserve currency. Lessened demand for "king dollar" can only be bullish for gold as gold is priced in dollars."

"we hear that several bullion banks are in "trouble". By trouble we mean they know they are too exposed to an unexpected gold rally. The borrowers of large tonnage of gold may not be so lucky as Long Term Capital was to have a central bank bail them out with an off market settlement if they have to find hundreds of tonnes very quickly to pay back a loan.

"That is why we see gold reaching $400 in 1999 and why we stay the course - and why we are so bullish on the gold and silver shares."

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:21 - ID#295111)
Ooops - Re: my last post, URL

THE Priest
(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:22 - ID#371242)
Oh yes a few words about generators
I believe you can buy them cheap in montreal i'm sure there will be no ice storms there

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:23 - ID#295111)
Goofed again.... take out the 'en' in ...golden-eagle... -> ...golden-eagle...

(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:53 - ID#376309)
I sold my long position in Gold. I just do not like the way the XAU is dropping lately. I still believe at this time that a pull-back would be a good buying opportunity.
I'm currently short a S&P and think that the high made on monday shall last for a while and maybe longer. I do not know how far or fast it will drop but it is going down!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 22:56 - ID#275194)
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:01 - ID#344326)
@ US leasing gold...
So now the US is leasing? Who and where are all these people that lease gold and sell it into the market? Do these people live underground like the Morlocks in "The Time Machine"? Speak up all you who lease gold! You shall not eat me!

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:12 - ID#231337)
US Leasing GOLD
If it's true... WOW! Not a wise move. If they can't collect... WATCH OUT. Fort Knox has a certain aura. People ( even if they do not understand nor believe in Gold ) trust Fort Knox. That trust being violated, plus the EURO ought to do wonders in correcting some scores. Greenspan has betrayed his own credo. He is appearing to be nothing more than a puppet of wall street.

Gold & Silver & Platinum Bug
(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:12 - ID#432214)
Canadian Law + Reporting Procedures Re Money Transactions
As in the United States the Canadian Gov't wants to keep track of drug dealers. "Lets take a bag of 20s to the currency exchange and buy U.S. dollars..." These drug dealers want to clean there drug spoils. The proceeds of crime regulations concerning cash transactions are designed to detect drug dealer scum and are as follows:

1 ) Under $1000.00 transacion No Identification required

2 ) $1000.00 - 9999.99 - Identification is required, however the merchant is not required to write down your name. ( Alot of gold dealers do write down your name and say that it is a legal requirement however they are wrong!!!, They may document your name for their own records or municipal bylaws etc. but it is not a Federal requirement )

3 ) Over $10,000.00 - By law the merchant is required to complete a source of funds form and document your name , address etc. ( This form is not forwarded to the Federal Gov't, however it has to be retained on file )

Simple commom sense precautions to safeguard your gold:

1- Never pay for your gold by cheque if you have your address on your cheque. ( If the gold dealer is broken into the crooks will have your address from the records ) - Tip - Put your business address on your drivers licence or your cheques.

2- On the source of funds form for purchases over $10,000.00, Never, Repeat Never, idnetify the source of funds as " Drug profits, Prostitution spoils, or account payable from a hit"

Go Gold & Pay Cash

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:20 - ID#219363)
IMF Chief: Worst of Crisis Is Over
MADRID, Spain ( AP ) -- Michel Camdessus, director-general of the International Monetary Fund, said Wednesday that the worst of the global financial crisis is over, a Spanish news agency reported. Camdessus said it was possible to avoid a global recession, although the risk hadn't completely disappeared because "the treatment has only just started," the state-owned news agency EFE quoted him as saying. "To those frivolous commentators and prophets of doom who've been chronicling the death foretold of the Brazilian and Latin American financial system, I say today what I said yesterday: The Latin American domino won't fall," the agency quoted Camdessus as saying during a Madrid meeting of Spanish business leaders.
Those whom the gods would destroy, well, they're allowed one press release.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:24 - ID#219363)
Investors Cautioned on Day Trading
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- State securities regulators are warning people to be wary of engaging in day trading, a risk-prone practice that is growing in popularity among ordinary investors who are lured by the prospect of quick riches. "For the typical retail investor, day trading isn't investing, it's gambling," Philip Feigin, executive director of the North American Securities Administrators Association, said Wednesday. "If you want to gamble, go to Las Vegas: the food is better." Day traders seek out stocks solely for their sharp price swings -- often focusing on big technology names like Intel, Microsoft or Dell. They buy and sell those stocks quickly to capitalize on the short-term movement in price, rarely ever holding a position overnight.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:27 - ID#219363)
Oil Prices Plunge on OPEC Fears
Crude oil futures fell sharply Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as jittery investors awaited word on whether members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would extend production caps through next year. On other markets, coffee futures advanced. Crude oil futures steepened their slide, closing in on 12-year lows of $11.42 a barrel reached in June, amid market talk that Venezuela -- one of 11 OPEC members and the largest exporter to the United States -- was balking at curtailing production through 1999 ahead of its Dec. 6 presidential elections. OPEC has been faced with declining prices amid a global economic crisis that reduced demand. This year, OPEC producers agreed to cut a total of 2.6 million barrels daily from world production.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:42 - ID#290202)
What is the classic definition of : long term trend & short term trend????

( as relates to POG.. .naturally! )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:44 - ID#290202)
.........@ Glenn
Do you like to trade with or against the long term trend? ...minor trend?

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:47 - ID#43460)
fergie, no confusion.
Merely a bad joke. I figured if you could produce a chart valid from 1998 through 2010 I could retire. Luckily the Priest came to our rescue. Now, if we can decide whether to follow the red line or the blue one. ( 8-^* )

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:47 - ID#57290)
Ag-oz=3.4155SDR, Nov 25 1998 10:16
The math for the $US/SDR shows it to be a 99.3% match for the $US/SFr ratio. This number and its' trend over time might be interesting to watch

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:58 - ID#219363)
I've become very interested in various electricity generating schemes for home use because of my time here at Kitco. I don't think y2k is going to amount to much, but the information is awesome anyway! *grin*. Might be nice to install a little generator somewhere, one of those just in case things. The power has been known to go down for a few days at a time. Here's a nice thread on hydro for home use.

(Wed Nov 25 1998 23:59 - ID#43460)
Cowgirl re land
You are right. I decided to get out of my timber venture due to health reasons but the time was also lucky for me not just because the timber prices save since fallen but the poor schmuck who bought it got caught in a law change regarding the wetlands portions, making 20% of the property worthless. He was just lucky they didn't find any of those damned woodpeckers, I forget their name, which cause hundreds of surroundeing acres to be impounded by the environmental SS.

I would bet that out West they have decided too that your water is no longer your own among other indiginities? To each his/her own burden to bear. Gold is, if not cheaper, easier to hide from Algore and his Nazis.