Exxon looking to gobble up Mobil for 61 billion. Would be the largest merger ever. Go here, then click on the link to the story-- http://www.drudgereport.com/

Happy Thanksgiving to all the Markans that celebrate this day. The festival is a mystery to me, but then again, Waitangi Day wouldn't mean much to anyone but a kiwi.

Nick@CapitalProtection
Did ya see my little speach a few spins ago about the FDIC being a socialist contrivance, but one which none of our capitalist-lovin-merkans seem to have a problem with?

Bugger me through my parka, to quote a bo'sun's boy in an Admiralty case earlier this century when asked by the Judge to state what he said when he saw the bow of a ship steaming out of the fog and towering over the gunwale at which he was standing on a tug about to be sunk, look what I done found at Mises institute, others have had this thought too:

================

Deposit Insurance.

This was a New Deal invention, a Band-Aid to patch up a system fatally
flawed by the existence of central banking and fractional reserves. So rather than bring more
stability, deposit insurance permits banks to act even less responsibly. The banks are
rewarded for performing loans, but are allowed to slough off their losses on non-performing
loans to society at large.

Banking is an entrepreneurial business which, like other speculative activities, is inherently
uninsurable, as Mises explained. That's why there can only be government "insurance," which
is socialism disguised by the language of commerce.


Privatise the profits, socialise the debts..Blame the poor.

For a typical house, how much power would you need to keep everything running, that is, to electrify the place so that you didn't have to change your lifestyle. I'm not even sure how many kilo-watt hours a house uses normally, I guess the electric bill might have something to say. What level does a house normally peak out at ? Is a generator that makes 10kw enough ? 20, 30 ? 100 ? What's the usual "enough" ? Thanks in advance for any information or pointers.

Rhodium
Is there anyone who follows Rhodium price at kitco and can post a yearly price chart? I have been asked about Rhodium, and, apart from some fundamental info, I know nothing.
TIA.

Mr"THE PRIEST"- thanks for the cool gold charts.
would it be possible to creat one, assuming you are
the creator, ( pun ) , from say the '60 until the present
leaving out all of the trend lines, but including the MACD
and or Stochastics.
Would be very greatful for such a chart, and a quicky email
to tell me when you are posting, as I really am short of time
to read all of the lovely posts here.
Reify@sitcom.co.il

Robert Rubin of Goldman Sachs. Doesn't Goldman Sachs name just seem to pop up in the strangest stories about global risk taking, gold plays, and general financial flareups?

Everytime there is a story about a wall street firm doing the Feds dirty work it is always Goldman Sachs. Hellooooooooo............

Nothing in particular, just a nagging thought that we little people are being fed a line about free markets, capitalism, and democracy. Promise the little people great wealth if they work harder and harder, busy little workers. While the elite class loans us money and tweaks the property laws, fattening the little working pigs up for market, closing the gates. Work harder, buy electronics, pay later, be cool, work harder, be popular, smell good, be impressive, buy an appropriate car, work harder, no interest till next year, BANKRUPT! Give it all back. Start over, work harder, remember the good times?

Each according to his abilities, each according to his needs. Work harder, share in the glory, help your fellow brother, work harder, produce for the motherland, wait in this line, out of that, work harder, that car costs five years salary, black market? SIBERIA! Reeducation, start over.

Maybe people are just naturally lazy and would produce little and need little without government contrivances and ideologies. Through propaganda, advertising, force, governments have convinced people to do more than the minimum amount of work. Work harder, keep busy, you can get that carrot if you just run a little faster. I guess the elite masters can skim more the busier we little people stay.

How much power??? That's a bit like asking, how much money can a woman spend??? It depends. ....

The average house is wired for 200 amp service. Or about 40 kw. It's probably not useful to plan on operating a generator of that size. .... Unless, of course all appliances are electric. Especially cooking, water heating and etc. If not the case, 5 kw should give ample capacity.

I have been looking into using batteries and inverters as a storage system. Recharged via a small engine driving an alternator it would make most efficient use of fuels since it would not be running in order to supply small current levels. It would only be run when batteries need recharging. ..... Problem is that it's at least twice as expensive. For those of us who need 240/120 volt supply, it's 3 or 4 times more expensive than a generator alone. My take is that a 4 to 5 kw inverter system for 240/120 VAC would cost on the order of $7,000. .... With good quality components. That would supply about 400 amp/hrs from a 24 VDC battery pack.

Batteries could also be recharged from solar, if available.

The reason I asked like that is because I'm working backwards from what most people do when they want to electrify their house. Usually you start with a house, then look around at the resources you've got, then do whatever you're going to do. I'm in the process of figuring out what kind of place I want, what kind of power I want, then I'll start looking for land to put it on. *grin*. So I'm asking a rather open ended question because something like hydro power is a possibility, at least as a power source during times when the water is running, maybe all the time if I get land that has a constant supply of water. Anyway, I'm trying to figure out a reasonable amount of power usage, so I can figure out what kind of generator I'd need, so I can figure out what kind of stream or river I'd need to run it. It's only one small variable in this massive equation that will someday be my home. : )

it depends. You do not want an electric water heater-thats about all the 5000w would handle. A battery system like Earl said would be best.
The biggest trouble is not the amount of power but the maximum you would need at any one time. A 4000w unit has a surge output on4400w
A 5000w has 6250w-get the picture? An overhead valve gas motor burns half the fuel of the older "type" briggs and stratton motors. You get what you pay for. Do you like where it gets 20 degrees below? Sharefin posted an article on the use of inverters a few days ago that had a lot of good info.

Check out these concrete dome houses. Very
energy efficient and can withstand tornadoes,
earthquakes, and direct nuclear hits.
http://www.monolithicdome.com/ ( just kidding
about the nuclear hits, but they do act as
excellent shields against radiation )

A dozen years back, there was an article about Exxon, in which the reader was asked to compare Exxon ( in size ) to other ( perceived to be ) large companies, example IBM and Xerox. The article stated that no matter what yardstick was used to compare: total assets, total sales, or Net Profit, that Exxon was so large by comparision, that Exxon could have bought both IBM and Xerox, toyed with them for a while, and then decided to sell them, and NEVER HAVE TO REPORT IT IN THE ANNUAL REPORTS because they would be relatively insignificant and would be less than the reporting threshold. The report said it might mention it in passing as "We invested in some technology companies, but sold them off as unimportant to our core business". I suppose it would be interesting to see the statistics now for Exxon, Mobil, IBM and Xerox, to see how the decade has fared.....Oh by the way, only 400 days left to Y2k or 9,624 hours for those of you counting hours...

Whilst searching the net on golden mean spiral calendar etc i found the following site

http://www.danwinter.com/index.html

there is a lot of way out stuff here especially the article about Black Holes in Orion , holy grail , Sitchen , GOLD

having read Stephen Hawking and seen the link to Carolan Spiral Calendar in his explanations ( Hawking ) of time maybe their is a bit of truth in this stuff .

Any Kitcoite with a far better brain than me care to study this one .

Aurator this includes you .

One of the reasons I would invest the extra funds in an inverter supply would be to provide PRIMARY power for a dwelling as a future permanent residence. Hopefully in a sunnier clime.

The inverters I have looked at, are modular and expandable to supply greater loads.

Presently, I live on the bank of a year round river that could easily supply my needs ..... but .... I don't control both banks. Given that situation, I'm certain that the state would intervene should I attempt to build a modest dam and create a dam pool for the pleasure my neighbors upstream. ....... If it's a year round stream with no effects outside of your property, you may get away with hydro ..... otherwise I would consider it hopeless. .... Then again, finding such a setup ain't gonna be easy. And you may rest assured that local and state govt would intervene if discovered. BTW, maintaining a hydro system would be constant challenge as well. ...... IMO, for most situations, madness lies in that direction.

Some may contend that Gold must be incredibly weak not to have moved higher and sustained a more convincing uptrend in spite of:



( i ) substantial technical buying because of the liquidation of a very large short position on the COMEX and of short positions by Hedge Funds and others during deleveraging; and

( II ) high seasonal demand for gold as a commodity; and

( iii ) increased and substantial investor demand for coins and bars as reported recently by the WGC; and

( iv ) cessation of dishoarding that earlier contributed to its decline; and

( v ) covering of hedge positions by Australian producers and other producers; and

( vi ) reported buying by Asian banks and lack of any reported sales by Eurobanks; and

( vii ) the threat of Saddam and the impeachment of Slick; and

( viii ) A lowering of interest rates and acceleration of money supply by the FED, aggressive stimulation polices implemented in Japan and other Asian countries, and a Global CB commitment to fight deflation and not inflation. Among Others

.......................................................... FURTHERMORE



Since gold has not moved higher, then it may be concluded that there are ample willing sellers who have significant reasons to sell even at this historically low price and who have the apparent wherewithal to stop any significant advance in price.

............................. ............................ FURTHERMORE



Should not one speculate as to who these sellers are, why they are selling, and why gold has not been able to maintain a significant advance in spite of the host of reasons why it should have. And is not one possible valid explanation that Gold historically has been a predictor of general price and thus it will not move higher until it expects an increase in general price.

............................................................ FURTHERMORE



Then, if a deflationary cycle is expected to continue into 1999 and beyond as many respected economists now contend; why, particularly if it is presently unable to do so, will gold move sharply higher in 1999 and beyond as many gold analysts are now predicting.

............................................................ FURTHERMORE



In consideration of the above, for those who in depair HOPE to recover one's lost wealth by a quick recovery in gold, unless an unexpected inflationary cycle reappears, I can envision Poe's Raven sitting on the gold and crying out

........................................................... "NEVERMORE"

@Auric: Neat, but a little too different for me. : ) I'm more of your Victorian style house with picture windows and a duck pond kinda guy.

@Earl, Rack: Thanks for the info, that tells me a lot. I'm guessing to run on that minimal amount of power you must not be cooking in an electric stove and are probably using oil heat, that sort of thing, right ? Another question about this kind of power. Say you had a little windmill, and some solar panels, and a little micro-hydro thing, and a fueled generator, and you wanted to tie all that stuff together, what kind of device do you use to bring all that different kind of power together and use it effectively ? Different cycles ( or DC ) , voltages, amps, etc. How does it all tie in if you want to include power from the grid if you need it for peak times ? Thanks for any info, I really appreciate all the great stuff.

What I meant to ask was, how does the system control the power ? There must be some kind of device or something in there, or computer. Seems like you'd want to use the power coming from the free generators all the time ( solar, hydro, etc ) , and make sure the battery bank was all charged up when you had power available. Then maybe start up the generator if they weren't charged, but only if you couldn't get power from the grid. Then maybe use the power from the grid since it's probably cheaper, instead of using the power from the battery bank, except for maybe a day or two every few months so the battery bank doesn't go bad, etc, etc. How does the system know ? Here's a quick image.

Lefty
It's good to see that our gobmint has at last seen sense and will not allow the sale of trout in restaurants after all. I had no idea that the attempt to allow this pernicious trade was a Knadian inspired move. Also good to see that Maori have no customery right to trout ( trout being introduced in the 1880's ) and will have to carry licences like the rest of us. Either move would have destroyed our recreational fisheries.
As to wading through that site you posted, I'll pass. My mind was made up when I saw they referred to such illuminating exegeses as:

"Flight of the Imperiled: Interdimensional Travels Through Earth Grid System"

and

"Impact of Ophanim Angels on History, by Vincent Bridges, San Graal School"

and

"Incunabula, Tantric wormholes and the bardo bridge, the antenna cocoon for human eros to produce shaamanic time tunnels."

Although:

"Prechter's elliott wave theory found that when stock volumetric analyses produced wave fluctuations whose duration and or volume
approached golden mean ( mathematicaly optimized recursion ) , at those moments the stock market movement as a whole became predicatable.. ( literature or web key words for searches: prechter, elliott wave theory.. they use my work.. )

What he did not understand was that the reason the stock market became predictable when it's volume curves were most recursive was that as a resonating system at those moments it was becoming self-aware.

The mathematical definition of self awareness is the onset of recursion in the harmonic content of any biological oscillator. This is the core of my work on the clinical basis of recursion.
" http://www.danwinter.com/stockmkt/stockmkt.html
----
sounds pretty kewl, ummmmm, is this guy saying that markets are becoming self-aware? Ummm, rising off a slab like Frankenstein's monster? What have we created Igor?

========

Life is just too short, and I'm too careful of what I read, but thanks anyway. I've read enough of spoon-benders. I'm going back to "The Sugarbag Years". Highly recommended oral history of life in NZ in the depression from 1926 ( possibly before ) until 1939. This stuff is a reality check. Oh boy...We don't know how lucky we are.

Gold may do this, gold may do that.....

GOLD is beyond the market, it is controlled by a CARTEL...

has anyone has their eye on PAGET MINING NL ??

4 cents to 20 in a week.....more to come !!!!!!

For Wednesday 25 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR-------------5.03--------------5.25-------------5.12-----------------5.12

Mean GoldLR------4.26---------------4.21-------------3.85-----------------3.56
Gold Lease Rate---0.77---------------1.04-------------1.27-----------------1.56
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.04 ) ------- ( - 0.02 ) ------- ( - 0.02 ) ----------- ( - 0.03 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.40--------------3.70-------------2.70-----------------2.45
Silver Lease Rate---0.63--------------1.55--------------2.42-----------------2.67
( Change ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) -------- ( - 0.20 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) ----------- ( - 0.05 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

Thanksgiving is about the Indian, Squanto, who showed how to plant corn with a fish and shared other knowledge of a strange New World so that starving Pilgrims were rescued by its bounty. It is about the red man and the white man sitting down in peace together at a Thanksgiving table in praise and thanks to their respective Great Spirits. That is what was told about it until political correctness and victimology.

Relations between the red man and the white man were on a reasonably civilized footing in North America for several hundred years. Penn had good relations with the red man. The Articles of Confederation were modelled on the Iroquois Confederacy. The great tragedy of re man- whote man relations occurred when the red man sided with the King in the War of Independence. This put the red man and the New Republic in opposition and made war on the red man good political campaign material ever after. Centralization of all political relations with the red man was part of the 1787 Constitution. The new engine of Empire, the federal government, became the conquering force for the red man. A consequence of the conquest of the states by the federal in the period 1860-65 was the loss of sovereign nation status in constitutional law in the 1870's. The red man has felt the implacable, federal heel ever since.

There is true diversity in unity which arises from free association by unfeigned common bonds. There is nothing but strife and division in diversity by grievances.

Thanksgiving Day. Commemorating a Christian lesson from the red man. Preserve the Day. Keep the lesson.

A day off to catch up chores, paperwork, etc. since business will be slow to dead. I might open up anyway for a few hours just in case since I need the cash flow. I know that this weekend is the biggest shopping days of the year but that means fizzle for us since most folks in this town use the opportunity to go out of town to Walmarts or Denver stores. As I've posted months ago - I foresee a stinker of a Christmas retail season - like this last summer and fall were stinkers compared to last year. Either folks are shopping elsewhere or the consumer confidence has struck much more deeply than the feds cooked books are willing to admit.
I need a fair season to unload inventory and convert the cash flow to supplies for Y2K and maybe even a little more Gold.

5000 watts - nearly a gallon of fuel per hour? Maybe 20/gallons per day.
Figure 100 days without new deliveries if we are lucky - maybe even six months or more. That works out to 2000 gallons - or maybe 1000 gallons if the generator runs at half load most of the time OR only for three months. Better invest in a big tank buried underground to keep it inconspicuous and safe from flying projectiles - like 30-06 ammo. Maybe get a gas station size tank of 5,000 gallons or so. Put in a basic pump and tell the IRS ( if they ask ) that you just started another Schedule C business. You will also save by buying fuel by the tanker truck load instead of 15 gallons at a time down at the gas station. You will have to deal with EPA regs, monitoring wells, etc. BUT this tank, especially if it has longer life diesel or stabilized unleaded will be worth over $10/gallon after Y2K. That's over 1000% return in two years!

...in China!! Now eat your peas!!!!" A memory from 45 years ago.

I am doing my best to feed those starving masses. A new 'discount store' opened in town today. My daughter dragged me down for the Grand Opening. It was PACKED!!. Most items in the store selling for $2-$5. 3/4 of the stock from China. My daughter bought Christmas presents for her friends @$2 each. We walked by a few other shops on the way out and saw nearly identical goods for 2-3 times the price.

Those of you who don't believe deflation is about to hit--think again!! It is already here!! Your producers are about to be hit by a wave of cheapo mass produced goods from Asia that will change your economy forever. There is no way your workers can compete. When the Chinese start producing higher quality/top end goods--then look out!! Either you raise the trade barriers or you shift your manufacturing plant to China.

It is now a whole new ball game. Mandarin anyone??

It is now one year since gold fell below $US 300 since 1985. A pretty bad drought.

Live Long and Prosper.

Going to send you a $10000 draft...buy me anything!!!! Been trying to buy a 6500 watt generator for 3 weeks now...none to be had. Seems hurricane Mitch hit Guatamala 'n family jewels. Generac Corp. sent 5000 of them there and others have done likewise.

Have to prepare the turkey, mate; have a good one!!! Gooday from the chilly Midwest.

Just a quick visit.

If you think generators are scarce NOW, try to get one in a year!! At one time I was thinking of buying a dozen or so. Sanity prevailed, but I'm wondering what they will be worth when none are available. When you have some spare time, read about the Klondyke gold rush. Big winners were the shopkeepers, not the panners.

Have a good one, mate, and a happy Thanksgiving to all of you KitcoMerkans. Would not want to be a turkey today ( though I'm sure many of you think that I am ) .

Niiiiick!

First:
Thanx for the roses some days ago. They are now at 0.225 - again big volumes. It is said that they had some luck RABbling Tanzania.

Next one:
Code LEO. Up from 0,06 to now 0,1. Not really confirmed by volumes - but plus 66,6% only in Nov!? - can live with that number of the beast.

Still wait for:
LAF. They come. Not now.

Have a good trip? SPX looks good. I got stopped out of my other E.African shares--worry over war spreading. Am keeping an eye on LAF, as volume is my main buy signal. Most Aussie juniors have had a bad week, with a few bright exceptions. I have pared back to minimal holdings until I can ascertain the direction of gold/shares. Getting more conservative as I see deflation ahead ( followed by sharp inflation ) .

Keep us posted when you again buy Aussie juniors. The Fred/Respect index is at an all-time high!!

What to by shares in my Sugar-Bag trading company?

Dirt cheap at the moment. ^o-o^

Thought you'd love that book.
A real eye opener.
Dad frequently introduces the old days
Into Y2k talk we have around the table.
----
Got some inside whispers on our local eletricity providor today.
From one of the geeks who is working locally.
Not good at all.

---
SEC Y2K Compliance Enforcement
http://www.datamerge.com/financingnews/secy2k.html

----
Opposition to Big Brother Banks
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19981124_xex_opposition_t.shtml

The federal government will soon track all financial transactions at banking institutions and businesses. The use of cash for payments over $100 may soon be illegal, and all paychecks will be made through direct deposit -- like it or not.

The proposed regulation will require FDIC insured nonmember banks to develop and maintain "Know Your Customer" programs. All other federal supervisory agencies will also enact the same regulation to prevent bank customers from moving their funds to avoid the regulation. All banks, savings associations, federally-chartered branches and agencies of foreign banks, as well as credit unions will come under the regulation. Even broker-dealers and other non-bank financial institutions will face the same regulation to investigate and report customer's activities.

"I could see this coming for a long time. It's not pleasant to have to do," said the bank president in a confidential phone interview Monday. "As far as I know, the bank is not planning to oppose the move by the FDIC. I think they actually welcome it. The potential for higher profits is astounding."

---
Just like the gun control issue...........control..........

There is a lot of good links to electricity/energy here;
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alternative.htm

You could set up a water ram pump to push water uphill for free.
One friend has just done this at about a $60 cost.
And then use a mini hydro turn turn this energy into a trickle feed.

My hideaway farm has a water wheel on it that pumps water and could easily be fitted with 3 different types of power generation plants.

Ingenious methods produce aceptable results.

Why does the last blue line go UP?. No, I'm not being unkind...I could draw a line down from those charts.

Tom bbl

MACD lines

http://cnn.com/POLL/results/60691.html

*sigh*

http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9811/25/oldpcs.y2k.idg/

rare Y2k problem. seems to affect 486 and older computies... hmm...

http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19981126/financial/0912078877-0000001191.html


The finer details of Thursday's embryonic agreement were lost on traders who had already sold oil futures to new lows in anticipation of the deal.

North Sea Brent on Thursday traded down another 15 cents to just $10.75, losing 10 percent of its value this week. Oil this year, on average at $13.66 a barrel for Brent, is priced lower than at any time since 1976.

"There is going to be downward pressure on prices," said Jeremy Hudson of
Salomon Smith Barney. "We may see oil flirting with $7-$8 a barrel."


hmmmmmm............ since oil has some connection with gold, perhaps a poll on future price of crude...

Yes RTC's are looking bigger the Godzilla.
And it's not only the older machines.

http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/October19/1.htm
http://www.ntgov.com/gcn/gcn/1998/november23/48.htm

The US Gov't will now only accept new PC's with compliant real time chips.

And look who uses Tandem computers?
With non compliant RTC's...............
--
Over 135 public communications companies worldwide
The majority of U.S. roaming cellular phone services
The 3 largest stock exchanges in the world
Over 40 securities and commodities exchanges worldwide
100 mutual funds
24 of the 25 largest banks in the United States
Over 500 financial institutions
Over 50% of the world's public e-mail service providers
75 of the world's 100 largest electronic funds transfer networks
7 of the 10 largest securities brokers
80% of the world's ATM transactions
Processes that handle 70% of the world's money
30 of the world's largest communications companies
18 of the 25 largest banks in Europe
90% of the world's stock exchange transactions
-
What me worry???

---
FEMA calls on presidents council for more help on 2000 preparations
http://www.gcn.com/gcn/1998/november23/13B.htm

gold in a channel......

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha21.gif

'where to now, saint peter......show me which road you're on...
....which road you're on'.....bernie taupin & elton john

chop-asaki to ALL kitco-ites on this day of thanks.....you know who you are...you too realistic....

cherokee!;..giving.thanks.for.another.thanksgiving....chop-asaki.

Daily looks like a rebound in a downtrend. Monthly looks like the bear in gold is over. Wouldn't that be nice

To all American Kitcoites - Have a great holiday

http://www.energyinfo.co.uk/wldcon.html

And if the globe realises some of these hits. Will there be enough?

Asia will face big Y2K hit
http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9811/13/asiahit.idg/

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by country

Level 1 ( 15% ) : Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S.

Level 2 ( 33% ) Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan.

Level 3 ( 50% ) : Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia

Level 4 ( 66% ) : Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe.

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by Industry:

Level 1 ( 15% ) : Insurance, Investment services, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Computer Manufacturing

Level 2 ( 33% ) : Heavy Equipment, Aerospace, Medical Equipment, Software, Semiconductors, Telecom, Retail, Discrete Manufacturing, Publishing, Biotechnology, Consulting

Level 3 ( 50% ) : Chemical Processing, Transportation, Power, Natural Gas, Water, Oil, Law Practices, Medical Practices, Construction, Transportation, Pulp & Paper, Ocean Shipping, Hospitality, Broadcast News, Television, Law Enforcement

Level 4 ( 66% ) : Education, Health care, Government Agencies, Farming & Agriculture, Food processing, Construction, City & Town Municipal Services.

--------------------
Interesting to think of future implications if one was to:
Multiply level 1 from 'predictions by country' X level 1 of 'predictions by industry'.
Then list this sector as minimal impact.
Do this consecutively all the way down to the level 5's.
This will potentiall produce the worst impact.

Seems like anything residing at level three or lower is not going to beneficial to the world.

Now where does all that cheap oil, food and gold come from???

I can see that...moving averages are just that...past action. I inquired why your line...as opposed to my line, goes UP.

Tom

Happy Thanksgiving down there, y'all...eh?

speaking of realistic.......

crude oil...

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha13.gif

time--for me-- to buy more crude calls.....ALL THE WAY to the bottom....
they are cheap....and sing my name as did the sirens to odysseus...
cheeroookeeee....to me...to me....the rocked shoreline awaits your
bow-sprit.....alas, we've no ship to strew across the rocks....only
my friend the wind as master of this ship...away....to the four corners
of the earth to pursue the sellers of long term options......
---gold, crude, oats, corn, wheat, and the mighty bean.........this imnsfho is nmtmo ok?

!; ) ...

http://www.energyinfo.co.uk/wldcon.html

And if the globe realises some of these hits. Will there be enough?

Asia will face big Y2K hit
http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9811/13/asiahit.idg/

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by country

Level 1 ( 15% ) : Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S.

Level 2 ( 33% ) Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan.

Level 3 ( 50% ) : Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia

Level 4 ( 66% ) : Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe.

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by Industry:

Level 1 ( 15% ) : Insurance, Investment services, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Computer Manufacturing

Level 2 ( 33% ) : Heavy Equipment, Aerospace, Medical Equipment, Software, Semiconductors, Telecom, Retail, Discrete Manufacturing, Publishing, Biotechnology, Consulting

Level 3 ( 50% ) : Chemical Processing, Transportation, Power, Natural Gas, Water, Oil, Law Practices, Medical Practices, Construction, Transportation, Pulp & Paper, Ocean Shipping, Hospitality, Broadcast News, Television, Law Enforcement

Level 4 ( 66% ) : Education, Health care, Government Agencies, Farming & Agriculture, Food processing, Construction, City & Town Municipal Services.

--------------------
Interesting to think of future implications if one was to:
Multiply level 1 from 'predictions by country' X level 1 of 'predictions by industry'.
Then list this sector as minimal impact.
Do this consecutively all the way down to the level 5's.
This will potentiall produce the worst impact.

Seems like anything residing at level three or lower is not going to beneficial to the world.

Now where does all that cheap oil, food and gold come from???

Any London Price?

The likes of CNBC and the talking heads will vanish before the year 2000 as the average working joe realizes that he has been snookered into what will prove the greatest redistribution of wealth in history. This time unlike 1929 they are going for all the marbles, including 401k. Wake up America you are very VULNERABLE!

What is the source of your 06:21 post. Thanks

the first chart is very long term goes back to 19984 and the second chart is very short term daily chart

Oil Calls - my thinking entirely.

Any gut feeling as to where the best value bet lies :- targetprice/expirydate ? These OPECites have notionally renewed the agreement another 6 months - which is probably a smokescreen forthem to get their act together and come up with a way to turn the situation around. Ditto gold.

Swing chart
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

With AutomaticTrendlines
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing1.jpg

Dow Gold ratio
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Dowgold.jpg

Auto trendlines on daily gold
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/goldd.jpg

Auto trendlines on weekly gold
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/goldw.jpg

Auto trendlines on monthly gold
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/goldm.jpg

Auto trendlines on daily platinium
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Plat.jpg

ANOTHER perspective of the crude one.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha65.gif

which famous trader said he bought the markets that
EVERYONE else was selling? who?

gold and crude are markets in dis-favor.....being sold like
mad due to over-production/supply....both are subject to
the ill winds of chaos and flux.....the grand-daddy of volatility...
and options love volatility.....

go to bernie bohl's site and look at weekly gold and crude....
consider where they are......and......

http://bohl.minot.com/index.html

'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction'
sir isaac newton.....

now look at his prices for long term gold and crude calls.....
i spend more than the price of these calls when i gook at
the lake.......WHO cannot afford to swing the bat of life
in the most highly leveraged game in town? OPTIONS create
NO liabilities beyond the original premium and brokers fee...

80+% of options expire worthless....place your bets....
ALLABOARD!

cherokee!;..swinging.without.being.a.swinger....yar...

From an alarmist style Y2k email.

I presume you're interested in the Tandem servers?
Here's some more of it.
--
We're talking about Tandem-brand computer servers. Who is Tandem?
-From their web site: "Tandem, a division of Compaq, provides software,
hardware, solutions, and services to support business-critical
electronic commerce, decision support, and high-volume transaction
processing for businesses in the telecommunications and finance
industries."

Tandem makes high-end servers that are extremely good at handling
high-volume transaction loads - which explains why they're used by the
stock exchanges. And yes, Tandem servers are used by all the companies
and services mentioned in the list above: they're everywhere. Chances
are, you don't go through a single day without something you initiate
being processed over a Tandem server ( such as an e-mail or an ATM
transaction ) .

According to Tandem's web site, their computers suffer from a problem
with the Real Time Clock. The Real Time Clock ( RTC ) is basically a
hardware-implemented timekeeping mechanism that provides date and time
information to the operating system and application software. The RTC
on most PCs, in fact, is not really Year 200 compliant. Although
they're not going to "crash," they were designed with a two-digit year,
meaning that while they perform exactly as programmed, their results
will still be misleading. Unless the software actively interprets the
two-digit year field correctly, it could cause all the Y2K problems
you're probably already familiar with: bad data, abnormal software
behavior, and so on.

Again: the RTC is not going to malfunction, it's going to roll over
to "00" because it's a two-digit date field. This is precisely the
same problem faced by the GPS system where the week field will roll
over to all-zeroes on August 22, 1999.

THIS IS ACTUALLY A HUGE PROBLEM
As simple as it sounds, this is a huge problem. It means the hardware
will not be reporting the correct date, and it's up to the software
( and the operating system ) to handle the interpretation.

Tandem's web site describes the situation as follows:
"The year 2000 is a concern for many computer companies because of
the limitations of their systems' real-time clocks ( RTCs ) . The RTCs in
Tandem systems keep the last two digits of the year ( referred to as
the century clock ) . In the transition between the years 1999 and 2000,
the RTC year will change from 99 to 00. Tests have shown that when the
year 2000 occurs, the RTC year will change from 99 to 00. Software
products are responsible for distinguishing the RTC year ( which will
be 00 in 2000 ) as the year 2000, not as the year 1900."

Link at:
http://www.tandem.com/year2000/y2kcpinf/y2kcpinf.htm

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19981126_xex_california_b.shtml

Typo

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19981124_xex_opposition_t.shtml

Do not be decieved by companies declaring to be running in Post 2000
conditions. This is not possible! Yes, they can run with 2000 dates
on their own system however, the interfaces are not passing 2000 dates
, they can't be as some of the interfacing companies cannot yet be
compliant. Also, they have full capability as far as fuel and coal
distribution. The true test of Year 2000 ready is not only compliance
of YOUR software but interfacing information and critical suppliers.
A Y2k compliant computer and a Y2k non-compliant computer work exactly
the same without electricity! They don't!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/981126/f.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981126/eu.html

eso...

i'm buying dec'99 18 to 22 strikes.
the 18's around $350....the 22's around $175...

when this critter turns....she'll scream to 20bbl
jiffy quick......then on to 50bbl......and soon the moon...

cheap subsidized oil for the west's expansion is fixing to
be a thing of the past...the warriors in the middle east are
fixing to execute their plans......and cheap oil will be
their first victim.......in the blink of an eye.....
saudi arabia in flames..... just as the tet offensive
in nam......so will the jihad warriors show the world their
might..over-night.......the ibn saud regime of arabia was
given power by the west as one of our minions.....they are
hated by their own people, and the radicals around them...
when the house of saud falls, so falls the era of cheap oil..

this to occur before the yellow house is freed of willy....this next
year...1999...just time enough to make a killing..and then be killed.

cherokee!;..riding.mules.with.sister.sarah.....

Squirrel -- IF you have a decent stack of batteries and inverter attached to you house and generator, there should be no need to operate the generator for more than an average couple hours daily, or less, depending on the loading you have applied to your batteries over the past day. The efficient generator is one operating at rated capacity during all of its on life in recharging the batteries and perhaps doing a couple other power intensive chores at that time also. Now, what would the cost of fuel/day be, and how long would a tank last?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Stories.txt

Got gold??? and lots of grub???

Got it - thanks
And a nice options site, too. Better and faster than www.optionsanalysis.com

My only concern is the potential of Y2K nonsense on the late december options. I'm getting OCT360 and 340 gold so as to beat the rush so to speak. Are you confident in not having any Y2K hiccups.

Set for Sunday night: Experts tell Steve Kroft that Y2K will probably
cause some serious problems...
http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

finding bottom at 10 at the 11th of 12

The mafia doesn't have anything on Rubin. You got that smell of Rubin right. And, it doesn't take too many facts to know he is the CEO of the Rogues.

cherokee - i have been watching those dec 99 calls on www.bohl.minot.com carefully these past few days. noticed that, in spite of the crude price falling quite sharply, the option prices haven't come down that much.

volatility up? optionanalysis.com at http://208.230.184.164/inewf.htm seems to suggest so.

do you reckon the volatility will dip down so i can buy some cheap calls?

oh, btw, happy Thanksgiving :- )

Nice charts, but how do you use them? What are you trading...stocks, funds, futures, physicals? What price do you get in at, do you use a stop, what is your objective, what is your time frame, where will the market be next week, next 6 month, what is your definition of all Hell breaking out? Do you consult with anyone we should know about??????

Weatherman is hard on it too. This is BADDD Blivits.

from a Malaysian in Aussieland kitcoite to all US kitco-goers :- )

may your experiences this holiday be as good as gold.

It amazes me that they will probably put this into power.
Just like the gun issue they are after total control.
The sheep will become the sheeple.

Ravenfire
Dec99 $390 gold calls are dirt cheap. $60 ???

It looks like there is no risk out their.
Wait till the masses move.
So long as they honour the paper?

Some are looking for single digit crude oil prices.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981126/bs/opec_7.html

http://www.lpf.com/year2000/toilets.html

T'is the lighter side...

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19981126/bs/opec_7.html

like gold is in wave 2 of a bear trend.

time will tell on you comments if this is wave two of a bear move

eso..

y2k is going to kick butt...in all avenues of our lives...

best have everything covered.....listen to the-fin-who-shares...
his sites and perspective are wake-up calls......the peopleo
will never wake up until they begin asking one another...what
the hell am i doing 6 feet under?

Priest if you're a Ken Roberts fan you'd buy the heck out of gold when it gets over $300 the next move up !!!

puts or calls why not take both ?15 dec99 2.50 for both ,
in deflation you get paid in inflation you get no honor in paper.

1 ) Happy Thanksgiving to all fellow USA Kitco-ites! ( with condolances to the human beans who were here first )

2 ) Did anyone see any follow-up info on Gollum's enticing post from yesterday:

Gollum ( A new kind of flight to safety ) ID#35571:
03:23 MILLENNIUM BOMB FEARS FUEL RISE IN INTEREST RATE FUTURES: FT.

3 ) Exxon: Back to the future? Exxon and Mobil were broken up out of Standard Oil in 1911.

Other indications of excess in the financial system:
1 ) Stock manias -- Internet stocks
2 ) Highly leveraged investments -- so-called "hedge funds"
3 ) $60,000 luxury trucks -- Lexus SUV
4 ) 277 people own as much wealth as the 3 billion people who represent the poorest 1/2 of the world's population

Too many more to name.

-EJ

"The experience that was had in this commone course and condition, tried sundrie years, and that amongst godly and sober
men, may well evince the vanitie of that conceite of Plato's and other ancients, applauded by some of later times; - that the
taking away of propertie, and bringing in communite into a commone wealth, would make them happy and florishing; as if they
were wiser than God."

Plymouth Governor William Bradford's
"History of the Plymouth Plantation, 1620-1647."

People that post under several monikers...one among us does this frequently...practicing his writing skills... mysterious posters....ANOTHER...now THE Priest.

Last I heard...respect was EARNED and seldom given to those a person knows not. Just a thought. No offense....BUT....really!

Tom

http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/pencil.html

get some stimulus to this group and thought i would post some chart's and give us something to ponder our theories here.I'm not here to be better or to say that i'm better then all of you.Only here to give my input to proper analysis of market's and i feel that one must do this with respect to people who have different thoughts and have different opinion. Let's face it that's what makes a market.In the next few days and weeks to come i will give more analysis.

Thank you

The pencil is a classic - thank you.

----
Region prepares Y2K disaster plan
Police on full alert for critical period
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/city/981125/2048847.html

----

To all who believe - HAPPY THANKSGIVING -


As Ancient Pan Did Sing

Come drink the flowing cup that pours
From the rich earth and sky
The full rich wine of life, until
Our moment passes by

And everything about us be
Poured into lifes rich cup
Till every sense and every mood
Of soul be lifted up

Toast with the richest wine the faith
That binds men to the truth
Drink deep to the eyes and ruby lips
The loyalties of youth

And fill a pot with that rich wine
The fruitfulness of earth
And toast with awe the harvest yield
The mystery of birth

Come, drink -- until the senses glow
With peace and genial mirth
And praise with love the Unknown One
Who made the fruitful earth


Namaste and goodnight.

Happy turkey day ! May God bless and protect the innocent.

Hey guys ya'll dont get all serious and stuff its a beautiful day an man its Thanksgiving !!
So loosen up relax get your feelings off your sleeve and share your knowledge !!

turkey turkey turkey turkey turkey for me
turkey turkey turkey turkey turkey for you

gold is stuck in a trading range isn't that true?
lets eat that turkey till we turn blue

cranberry sauce is a food that is strange
I wish the manipulation would end at the Metal Exchange
a big old gorilla is sitting on the price
my wifes made some stuffing and I tell you its nice

I'm gonna take my kids for a hike in the hills
if gold stays flat I'll need some more of those vallium pills

gobble gobble gad, gabble gabble gad
I hope this thead doesn't think I'm mad

turkey turkey turkey turkey turkey for me
turkey turkey turkey turkey turkey for you

On oil prices going back 25 or more years. Gold and oil over the long term would be even better. golden eagle has the Roy Jastram analysis showing a long term relationship of 20 barrels per ounce. Does anyone have a URL to point me to?

doormat,
This is the doom and gloom site. Doom never takes a holiday, but it does occasionally eat and down a few martinis with friends and family :- )

THE Priest,
Your opinion is most welcomed and appreciated here.

-EJ

Forgive me Father, for I cannot fathom your charts.
Like TYoung said, the lines can easily be drawn differently.
Charts are fun, but zero substitute for fundamental analysis
Try looking at the charts without all those lines
They do tend to clutter things up

OK

The question still stands as to WHY you see gold, in the short term way up. If you wish discussion please explain the blue line. It is not made by the chart...but by you...Why?

I "see" one more move down OR a bolt up...my guess is down first...based on the need by governments to keep control of the gold price during this reliquifying push. We wait and watch this old/new gold market. Yes.

I will be gone for a time. Think long and hard on this.

Thank You.

Tom

Donald - Go to the Noesis site at www.oil-gasoline.com and click on the Questions molecule where there is an e-mail form. He may very well have such data. He used to be with the California Energy Commission. Best of luck.

Kuwaiti Minister..."The Market has nothing left but to hope fora realy cold winter".

An esotericist's gut feeling : There's something about the meterological volatility recently...perhaps a really nasty winter's probably on the way..

Black Gold and yellow gold have this in common from an esoteric P.O.V. !
Both are forms of "concretised energy".

Perhaps a nasty cold 1998-99 winter will kickstart a commodity comeback.

- I'm off to check the long range weather forecast !

Gold is trading today?

Thanksgiving is an American holiday
The rest of the world is trading

OK

Picking up yer thread:

Your energy plan is ambitious. Yes? Excessively complicated? Yes. ..... and in the end it will require some sort of energy storage device.

You could use periods of excess to pump water into a tower for use in a turbine during slack periods. Or you could set up a battery pack to do the storage. Cheap efficient means of storing electricity remains the greatest unsolved problem of modern technology, IMO. There are few options.

It would probably be best to concentrate on self sufficiency and forget ideas of cogeneration. A system of electrical conversion designed around whatever is readily at hand is best. Wind, solar, steam or hydrocarbons. Stuff the excess into a storage system and use it to fill in the valleys....... in your demand cycle.

No matter the system used, it will demand oversight and maintenance. That should be factored in as well. Don't know of anything that can be setup and forgotten.

Thank you

quo to help those other reindeer slobs keep their jobs and further a
capitalist system mired in a fiat fog? Only the shadow, and
Donald know. Funny how things turn out.

In two years hopefully we'll be celebrating bountiful harvests and the return of civilization as we knew it. Before winter again sets its teeth into us we'll again have electricity, natural gas, normal fuel & food deliveries, transportation, banks, communications, internet, Kitco and other necessities of life and sanity. It would have been a rough year, especially the frigid first few months, but we survived.

Regarding electrical usage, generator load and how much fuel to store. If you wish to maintain your present lifestyle then look at how many KWH you use per year now and divide by five to get how many gallons of fuel you may need from loss of the grid in late 99 until Thanksgiving of 2000. I'm figuring a generator/batteries/inverter system to have 15 to 20% efficiency depending on how efficiently loaded the generator is and losses within batteries and inverter. A Honda 5000 watt generator consumes 0.18 gallons per kwh but lets round that to 0.2 gal/kwh to make up for other losses.
http://www.honda-generators.com/generators/industrial/index.html

If you wish to replace 12,000 kwh {avg of 1,000/month} then you need 2000 gallons. This depends on how electrified your home is. All electric may be more. Electric supplemented with wood, propane, etc. for heating, cooking, etc. may be less. But you will need to store those fuels too - such as a 1,000 gallon buried propane tank and a dozen cords of wood.

I figuring for a decade of depression, anarchy, pestilence, famine, war and general hell and I'm a few years short on supplies for that. Worst case is a century of the above - in which case we are all sorely unprepared unless we are on a remote, isolated, self-sufficient farm and/or fishing community.

Looks like the price of commodites such as pork,wheat,oil,etc.
have gone to hell in a hand basket.However when one goes with
the same basket to the supermarket one certainly does not see
it reflected in the price of groceries.Also the price of oil
plummets to under twelve dollars a barrel while the price of
gasoline seems permantly fixated at 56.7 cents a litre ( $2.57/gallon )
The upshot is that the farmers in western Canada are looking for
a several billion dollar bailout.The larger picture is of course
the there is a major reduction in world demand but the point is
that it seems as if ultimately the producers and the consumers
get screwed while the major corporate interests get fat and prosper.

markets,and high tech communities worldwide? I hear the Pentagon likes
"asymmetrical warfare" and "information warfare" these days. Would the
Chinese love to bring the financial markets down to a level at which
they might compete more effectively? Saddam beat the US in the last
round ( Newsweek November 30,1998 ) , why can't the Chinese? Gobble..gobble.

Thanks be to God for 2+ centuries of freedom........

with prayers of trepidation for the future of this great nation.

........for mercy....into the millenium...and beyond. ( 'nuff said, we eat

in 15 minutes, y'all come on over.... )

markets,and high tech communities worldwide? I hear the Pentagon likes
"asymmetrical warfare" and "information warfare" these days. Would the
Chinese love to bring the financial markets down to a level at which
they might compete more effectively? Saddam beat the US in the last
round ( Newsweek November 30,1998 ) , why can't the Chinese? Gobble..gobble.

11 am and its already 60 degrees outside - sunny, warm early September day. Almost no snow left which is really odd for 10,000 ft in the Rockies in late November.
Maybe this trend will continue for two more years and thus make survival in 2000 much easier. But that may mean drought for the high plains since a lot of their water comes from these mountains.
You got clobbered on commodities but Y2K preparations and screwball climate have got to boost those prices eventually. Folks can survive without Amazon.com but they have to eat.

the last few months. As I've said, ( oh, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE )
before, my predisposition is to watch the sentiment. When this is at extremes like it was, IMHO, ( for the PM's and the stock market ) earlier this year, then I feel confident of expressing an opinion as to a change in the trend. http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/DJI/DJILongTerm/DJIL/DJIL_0.html
It is then that I will look for corroboratting ( sp ) tools to validate my suspisions as to wether the markets have truly changed direction. Elliot is one of the best tools for telling you where you were! Notice I said WERE. It's predictive ability comes in when you ARE on the right count and can forecast future moves with respect to correct count and the use of fibbonacci levels of retracements.
The market declined in July in 5 waves down with 3 waves up right to .382 levels of the declines. What it didn't tell you is that this bubble had a little further to go.
With that said, lets see where we stand right now by looking at the internals as well as the current sentiment of the stock market, that is obvious to all, as well as other gages that are not looked at nearly as closely.
Back in July, the put call ratio nearly tied its 5 year low by hitting 40 puts for every 100 calls. This level was hit two days in a row
back in August of 97, right at the top. The A-D line Finally failed this July after confirming every new high previously. Mutual fund cash levels were at levels NEVER seen before, I believe and the Investors Intelligence survey of bulls vs bears were also at highs. In July I don't believe they were 5 year highs. We all know the public's sentiment on the market, as surveys and comments have been posted here many times. Everyone I talk to is not afraid,AT ALL!!!
Now lets take a look at where we are right NOW!
Friday and monday, the put call ratio tied those two back to back 5 year records of 39-40. Investors intelligence shows the level of bulls at 5 year highs of 57% last Wednesday.The A-D line did not even surpass the last little high it made on the way down.
But heres the thing that has convinced me that this market is truly done. Even the prominent bears who were looking for much lower prices during the decline have all agreed that this market has got more left on the upside.

Where are the bears????? "The Great 401K Bubble of 98"is complete.
The advance from the lows was so breathtaking that it sucked everyone back in. Yet all internal measures of the markets health are screaming, run for the exits!!
Now ask yourself a question. If this were to be the supercycle top, and we are headed into the abyss, how do you think it would end?
Right, with as many as possible looking for higher prices!!
Gold and Silver are the same only in reverse!

.

ALL: Can't let Thanksgiving get by without wishing everyone at Kitco a great day! If you have a computer and can get access to the internet you already have more than most people in the world. Beyond that, to be able to even consider owning gold puts us Kitcoites in a realm far beyond the vast bulk of the world's population. We all have much to be thankful for!

Thanks for your reply. I do not have a bad case of Americentrism. I thought the spot prices reflected COMEX out of NY, which I thought might be closed today.

LOL. We in metals know well the eating of turkey. --Alan

Eric Rudolph is a fox for the hounds to get them in form.

The blackboots learned it was actually quite easy to shoot a woman through the head, or incinerate a bunker of children- and once the few with misgivings were transferred out, the rest needed more training- primarily in spin control and press management.

I don't believe the charges.

Only a spook could stay hidden from an army of spooks for so long.

Happy Thanksgiving to all mid-north-americans whose ancestors chose to make the trip within the last 500 yrs. ; )

For those traders who are using both Advanced Get and Tradestation, there is an alternative means of protecting your investment. If you lose your hardware lock for Advanced Get it will cost you about $1,500 to replace regardless of the explanation. Although this is cheaper than paying for the cost of new program ( $2,750 ) it is still onerous. I am not advocating making illegal copies for friends, but adding some security and flexibility. I think Tom Joseph makes a great product and respect his copyright. However, I take my laptop to download prices while on trips, and would be upset if both my laptop and my hardware lock were lost or stolen. I would also like a means of using Advanced Get at work without having to worry about transporting the hardware lock. This alternative is not cheap but does offer insurance at a better price.

http://www.goodidea.net/prodlist.htm

Aloha to all from the North Shore of Kauai where it is 70 and partially overcast.

As a former Brit who did not experience Thansgiving until I was 22 years old, I would like to extend greetings to all Americans on this forum and express thanks for the freedom of expression and individual rights that are the legacy of the writers of the US constitution, even if those freedoms are under attack.

Also greetings and thanks to all Kitco participants and lurkers from all countries for the privilege of participating in this extraordinary discussion group.

Personally I love the idea of a world where people freely interact and share wisdom, culture and understanding. I just refuse to be forced into it by some group of elite power maniacs who figure that they know what is best for me and everyone else.

TVX Seeks as Much as US$200 Million for Gold Stakes ( Update1 )
Bloomberg News November 25, 1998, 1:24 p.m. PT
TVX Seeks as Much as US$200 Million for Gold Stakes ( Update1 )
Toronto, Nov. 25 ( Bloomberg ) -- TVX Gold Inc. is seeking
US$150 million to US$200 million from the sale of a 50 percent
stake in its two gold mines in Greece, a company spokesman said.
The Canadian gold miner sought a joint-venture partner this
month after calculating it didn't have enough cash to develop
the sites, estimated to yield an average of at least 265,000
ounces of gold annually for 20 years. It currently produces
500,000 ounces a year.Nine ``senior'' producers are interested in the projects and several have signed confidentiality agreements to study them in more detail. The company expects to reach an agreement in three to six months, said company spokesman Ed Baer. The company is
awaiting a final valuation on the sites.The Toronto-based company also considers itself a possible takeover target, Baer said.``A lot of people in the market think that the current environment is a good time for consolidation,'' Baer said. ``We may be a target for one of those consolidations.''Baer said total construction costs for the mines will be
about US$475 million. European Union grants will cover US$150
million of that sum, and US$250 million would come from bank
financing. The company currently has US$46 million of cash. It expects
to spend a total of US$7 million on exploration and development
this year and next.TVX won a Greek government auction for the rights to the Olympias and Skouries properties in 1995. Baer said Olympias is
expected to start production in the fourth quarter of 2000, and
Skouries in the first quarter of 2001.HSBC Securities analyst Victor Flores said what makes the Greek property especially attractive to a potential partner is that TVX has done most of the groundwork.``TVX has sunk a lot of money into feasibility studies on these mines,'' Flores said. ``If base metal prices come anywhere near where they've been in the recent past, it makes sense for people to look.''Gold touched a 19-year low of $273.85 an ounce in August amid increasing supply from mining companies and after a string of sales of reserves by central banks. Prices have since rallied as much as 10 percent. Gold for December delivery recently traded at US$296.50 an ounce in New York.TVX stock fell 15 percent on Oct. 15 after an Ontario provincial court ruled that Alpha Group was entitled to 12 percent of the Greek mines. TVX is appealing the decision. Stock of TVX fell C$0.04 ( US$0.026 ) to C$3.10 in Toronto
trading.On Oct. 23, TVX President and Chief Operating Officer David
Murray quit and was replaced by Cliff Davis in the COO post. The
decision to seek a partner was made before Murray quit, Baer said.
--Keith Campbell in London ( 44 171 ) 330 7089 through the Toronto
More News:TVX

For what it is worth I am currently short an S&P and think that an important top was made this week also.

Bill El Zebub 13:04 I dont know how I got credit from you for being blood thirsty. Economic conflict is not the same as WWIII and one does not necessarily lead to the other. Pentagon is exploring "information warfare" as it does all forms of warfare. Chinese will not benefit from a worldwide financial catastrophe. One round of tactical conflict does not a strategic move or decisive outcome make. The Chinese position is not remotely similar to the Iraqi situation.

Attached file is kind of wallpaper for Win95/98 with a running counter of time left till 1/1/2000 ( till second ) . When you have it on screen, right click it and set as wallpaper.
Just made a preview, don't know why, on my screen it gives Windows "clouds" image, in preview only counter

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981127/invest/invest1.html

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/Swing.htm

are US markets opening again Friday? or Monday?

Thanks for the info and all the help. The most illuminating thing you said about the alternate power system was that it was ambitious, I hadn't realized that really. I thought you could throw these things together like tinker toys and it was gonna work well *grin*. After reading a lot last night and a little bit today I'm finding out that you can't just put up some solar cells, dam up the creek, hook up the gasoline generator, and run that all through a magic box connected to the grid and expect it to just work and supply power during times when the grid is down. Sounds like a maintenance nightmare, making sure there aren't any leaves on the cells, exercising the gasoline generator when it hasn't been used for a while ( nevermind changing the oil and all that fun stuff ) , coordinating fuel delivery, keeping the intake on the hydro generator clean, etc, etc. Sounds like a big hassle to me, not something I think I'd want when you're already spending so much money on the equipment and installation in the first place. I like buy it and forget it kinda stuff, this all sounds more like buy it and babysit it for the rest of your life. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, I don't have any experience with the equipment. They say that motorcycles are a nightmare too, but I never really had to do that much work on mine for the years I've had it, could be this stuff is the same way. I feel like the technology, especially in the area of control and communications, needs a few more years to mature.

Just back from 17 days on Grand Cayman. No it's not good to be back.

US is open half a day tomorrow

Ballade of Good Counsel/Geoffrey Chaucer
Flee from the crowd and dwell with truthfulness;
Suffice thee with they goods, th' they be small;
To hoard brings hate, to climb brings giddiness;
The crowd has envy, and success blinds all;
Desire no more than to they lot may fall;
Work well thyself to counsel others clear,
And Truth shall make thee free, there is no fear!

Giving thanks for all the good counsel shared on this site,
for Kitco's sharing ways
for the humor,
the insight and the
Majesty of spirit
And for Bart Kitner
Without whom...

Signed, a very grateful SDRer {:- ) )

I'm not familiar with off-grid power generation.

Wouldn't first class air tight insulation with provisions for venting stale air be a prime consideration for heating or cooling?

If the location has adequate daily sunlight what would be the miniumum number of solar panels and battery storage units to run all the low wattage, long life components in the house? I imagine a refrigerator might require more electrical energy than a reasonably priced solar system can provide.
For cooking would propane be best? To be consistant in fuel use, could propane power a refrigerator and a well pump?

For heating, wood or coal burning stoves in each room, although not convenient should do the trick.
Also heavy dark interior floors and walls subjected to solar rays during the day and provisions to cover the large glass surfaces that allowed the sun in during the day might help.

This self sufficiency stuff is much better than food fights, the moon walks.

you wrote:

Date: Thu Nov 26 1998 09:59

esotericist ( @cherokee ) ID#224230

My only concern is the potential of Y2K nonsense on the late december options. I'm getting OCT360 and 340 gold so as to beat the rush so to speak. Are you confident in not having any Y2K hiccups



*****

The options can be exercised early can't they? And the futures contract sold or delivery accepeted. I think I'm right?



The more I read kitco, the more I am starting to think that my dec99call390 options on gold were a stupid newbie trade. ouch.

Still, there is lots of time till, and from the volume reports it looks like in addition to stupid newbie traders, there is some big money there too. of course big money isn't for certain smart money, LTCM was big money.



Something I have been thinking, is that since the price of a commodity seems to settle so that most options expire worthless, maybe options in the strike prices you mentioned might be better than 390 if there is so much volume at call 390.

But then, I AM a stupid newbie, so who knows.

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Just a few months ago, few imagined shoppers would be ready to spend this holiday season. The stock market was plunging, many questioned President Clinton's future and the global economic situation looked grim. But things have started to brighten for the nation's retailers. Consumer sentiment is on the rise and Wall Street is surging once again. That's good news this Thanksgiving weekend, the official start of the Christmas shopping season. "It doesn't get much better than this," said Carl Steidtmann, chief retail economist for PricewaterhouseCoopers. "We have a very robust consumer environment, with good employment growth and income growth. It should be a good Christmas."

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn14.htm

I know nothing about this stuff, and have nearly no experiance with options, but I considered options on oil just prior to the latest "sit com" between Iraq and the US. I did a little reading and found an artical on the net called "The new economics of oil" It was in some magazine, and they had it HTMLized. I found it with a search engine, anyhow this artical was written in 97, but it said that the costs of production of oil, and exploration costs had dropped dramaticlly and technology had made it possible to recover lots of oil from places previoiusly thought tapped out. It mentioned the production costs of various countries, some around $15 a bbl, but most far below $10, and some company in Norway or someplace with a production cost so low they thought they could make money even if oil was $3 a bbl.

Like I said, I don't know much if anything about oil, but it looked from that artical that oil is very overpriced even at $11 a bbl.



Now there is an oil expert who posts to the kitco forum isn't there, I read a post he wrote and he is apparently in the oil business in the US, he mentioned that his crews call in with the maintenance reports and the rigs that are most expensive to fix are shut down instead.

Maybe he could post regarding the profitability of oil options. Or maybe he has and I'm being a really stupid newbie.

At my cottage, we run our fridge , stove and lights off of propane.. My friend at work runs a 12 volt water pump from his solar set up...
rb

Sharefin wrote:

Dec99 $390 gold calls are dirt cheap. $60 ???

It looks like there is no risk out their.

Wait till the masses move.

So long as they honour the paper?



*****

This last bit about honouring paper has me nervous. But I am thinking I shouldn't be? find the hole in my logic..

I have some of these options.

My counter party is the OCC.

The OCC has good credit curently

People who write options have their margin adjusted daily.

If the price of gold starts to rise, the writers will get margin calls.

While margin is a small percent, it is adjusted daily.

They only way there is dangerous counter party risk is if the price of gold soars very high in a single day, for several days in a row.

There are fluctuation limits on the gold futures contracts.

While there are no flucutaions limits on the options, hmm...



OK, I'm scared, but I need something more rational than "paper will burn" I know there is tremendous call volume, but really rationally within the system as it is, how serious are the counter party risks?

The writers of these options have other positions that could and would be liquidated by their clearing broker. right? tell me the truth, you can't see me cry so I can take it. besides, it's only $600 plus commisions and fees.

Thats the other thing, I got in at $1.00 and now we are at $.60, the people writeing these options, why aren't they increasing their premiums?

Turkey is good
Yummy yum
I like it
With gravy
Kitco is good too.
For the brain
But not for the wallet
Unless you pay attention
Someday, gold will be
Worth a whole bunch
Or more than it is now
Yummy yum.
I made a picture
With my super-3D nifty software
And here it is
Happy Thanksgiving Kitco

Notice theres is considerable attention beeing paid dto your return and your charts. I guess the big news on that charts is that gold has broken a very steep downtrend line and the MACD looks positive.

Of course the break of the downtrend line is dependaNT on how you draw it and the uptrend would really begin if we get over $300 - which could kinda tell. Please tell me what else I missed/.

This page talks all about the risks associated with writing covered and un-covered call and put options. It's text, so you'll have to go down to the part that is titled "RISKS OF OPTION WRITERS". It goes through all the risks, in very much detail, for the folks who want to write options. It's dry, a few paragraphs long, but a necessary read. It includes sample situations the writer could end up in ( like having written an un-covered call against a stock that sky-rockets ) , etc, and talks about options that the writer would have when that situation occured.

http://www.cboe.com/education/strategy/index-raw/odd.txt

Date: Thu Nov 26 1998 11:45

Donald ( Looking for a chart ) ID#26793:

showing a long term relationship of 20 barrels per ounce. Does anyone have a URL to point me to?



****

First, my personal bias immedatly tells me you are WRONG, then quietly the rational part of my brain figures out how to prove that you are wrong. Still, others have said that gold could drop to $250 or $200 and I keep hearing that production cost is around $50/oz. Still others say "political metal" and I feel better.



Look, Just because there is a relationship on charts between the price of oil and gold does not mean it is a causal relationship, it very well could be a trick of the chart. It seems to be an artificial realationship. Same as the length of womens skirts and economic times.

There is supply and demand, and if the supply of oil suddenly increases this longterm relationship would be broken, simalerly if an asteroid composed of %90 gold and platinum were to crash into the earth doubling the amount of gold, the relationship would be broken.



The relationship looks real, but it may not be.



BTW: I saw an attractive girl about 20 or so whereing a denim skirt to just above her ankles, something about it made the sight of her ankels very attractive and I asked a co-worker and apparently long skirts for informal dress are becoming somewhat common. BUT there is no link, it is true that in the past there has been an apparent relationship, and that that trend will continue again, there is no real link. The Asian crisis is a far better indicator of the future of our economy than the length of girls skirts. And central bank selling and industrial use and political issues are far more important to the price of gold than the price of oil.



But then there is that fellow who makes a good claim that the US$ is backed by oil, and I don't even pretend to myself that I know what I am talking about.

But your WRONG, if I had puts, you might have been right.

OPEC fails to agree on further cuts. will review in March.

http://www.excite.co.uk/news/news_story/business/bus2.txt

deflation/inflation. what have you...

wild card = y2k bug


arby- thanks for the us market opening info :- )

Kool pic. Looks professional. I vote we adopt it as our official Forum logo.

( provided Envy is willing )

and i did not drawn the trendlines in the computer simulation does that i had no input yes the macd look extremely positve in the monthly chart

As I understand, it the OCC assigns the one who fulfills the option if it is in the money. And this is not necessarily the one who wrote *your* option- they use their own sets of rules for assignment.

If the market in your stock or commodity is sufficiently illiquid or in crisis of one sort or another making it impossible to clear the options- they can, at their discrection- suspend the market in that item- which means *nobody* gets paid- period.

Or if the assigned party declares bancruptcy- you don't get paid.

There are other situations- war, ( Y2K? ) , emergencies, computer foul-ups in which they can suspend trading in any or all options- meaning nobody gets paid- they expire worthless.

You can bet that friends look after friends- so if the big names stood to take it in the rear- who do you think they would look after? Them or you.

Case in point: LTCM

and they all give my the same results

Insulate, insulate, insulate! Pay close attention to the

details of insulation when you go beyond the requirements

of modern building codes. It's not so much the stale air

as the moisture in the air that needs to be vented. Humans

introduce a lot of water into the air by breathing, cooking,

and cleaning. Those details mentioned above protect the

building from moisture damage. Everything else you touched

on would make for a building frugal in its use of energy.

Regards,

Allen M. Leland

any comments

Kool pic. Looks professional. I vote we adopt it as our official Forum logo.

( provided Envy is willing )

a weekly. i find this one very interesting

a weekly. i find this one very interesting

"People" are walking away from the US$....

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/taylor112598.html

********
remember to take the "en" out of "Golden".....

Haggis

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981126/world/world3.html

700 Trillion Yen!!

wowie!

maybe numbers don't matter any more. but that's like bigger than the US national debt ...

All rights to the image /pub/discussion/thanksgiving.gif ( "image" ) are hereby released by Envy at Kitco to Bart Kitner for use as he sees fit without compensation, credit, etc to Envy at Kitco. Price of 0.00$US does not include taxes, tags, or license to operate image. Image may not meet EPA standards for clean air, protected wet-lands, or ozone depletion and image may not be y2k compliant. Envy at Kitco makes no warrantee's expressed or implied and Envy at Kitco cannot be held liable for damages incurred by use of image.

What are your charts predicting for the price of Gold over the next 1, 3, and 6 months?

Yes, the Characteristics and Risks of Standarized....

My broker asked that I read this when I opened my account. I did so.

Other than some weasle words about halting trading, this dosn't answer my concerns.

I don't mean an individual writer of options having problems, I mean some massive institutions writes calls, lots and lots of out of the money calls on an underlying. Underlying starts to rise very fast.

The institution can not cover, all is liquidated and still can't cover.

Ok, poof thier out of the picture and the OCC has to make up the difference. Suppose the OCC Can't? They can suspend or halt trading, and they would HAVE to.

Bottom line is it looks like calls on more gold than exits have been written. If gold does go above $390 by dec99, I see the OCC being bankrupted.

However if gold goes up slow enough that these call writers can close out their positions, then this wouldn't happen. If gold starts to go up the writers would have to buy back some of those calls. Could they do that? Whoever the writers of these options are they must be big. Maybe big enough that the price of gold can not be allowed to go to $390

This is why most of you hate the derivative isn't it. I think I understand. There are so many ways everything could come apart at the seems. Even if the Asian crisis is resolved, there is y2k, even if that is resolved there is a mess with the hedge funds, and others playing with options. lots of ways for civilization to collapse, and none of them seem to be corrected.



I'm a newbie, but I can't see a solution, if the exchanges or CFTC or whoever says margins must be increased, that alone could trigger a disaster. Well, I see one solution, make sure that all those calls expire worthless. If the OCC or other halts trading, that would so damage their credibility as to cause a disaster I think.



Hmm.. I thought it was so simple, I place a bet on the future price of gold if I'm right I get money if I'm wrong I loose my premiums and such.

So I purchased some calls.

But you gold people, your playing for stakes a lot higher than maybe even you realize, this isn't my $779.29 or some banks solvency. This is all the marbles, life as we know it.



Well, if nothing else my involvement will make the drama about to unfold that much more interesting to me. As I told my broker, I am willing to risk my entertainment budget. Looks like I am a little tiny player in the biggest game of liars poker ever. ah... it's better than going to the movies.

That would connect with ANOTHER'S thinking.... Also his thoughts that dollars will have no value, so one would have to own physical...
rb

Hey, I have no authority here, but when you post those charts, could you indicate in the subject what they are for. If you post a chart about the price of gold, I am very interested, however if I have to open up the picture to find that it's a chart of some mining company or something eventually I will just skip your posts with a chart, I don't want to do that for fear of missing something interesting to me.



btw: technical analysis works if most market participents are relying on fundemental analysis so that the price reflects everything known.

Thats right isn't it?

But does it work if most of the participents rely on technical analysis?Would it cause feedback into the price and increase volitility?

Is that what is happening to the stock market, it no longer reflects the fundemental situation but price is now driven by technical analysis?



Hey, I just thought of an ugly way to decrease the money supply and kill inflation in it's tracks. But it's not novel, I think it's what all the kitcoites have been talking about when they say wealth destruction.

I am learning.

These gold producers are acting to slowly, they have to go out there and publicy accuse the prime suspects of this manipulation that is ruining their combined longivity.
Better to go down by being sued out of existence than manipulated out of existence.
Planned hits might also be considered, but not sure if I'm just kidding?

I got the 20 bbl per ounce figure from the golden eagle site. It is referenced to a study by a Roy Jastrum from the 1950-1990 period. I was trying to construct a chart of my own to keep a daily record to see if it has any value. Another reference is to H.C. Wainwright & Co. of Boston who participated in a similar study. Right now we are at 21-22 depending which oil price is used.

http://www.newsweek.com/nw-srv/printed/us/bz/bz0222_1.htm

Did a quick search on my shelves and found some resources that may help you learn the issues concerning alternate energy.

1. ) "Home Power: The Hands-On Journal of Home-Made Power"
- published 6 times a year, crammed full of articles on renewable energy systems
- published by: Home Power Magazine, P.O.B. 520, Ashland, OR, 97520
Phone: 916-475-0830

2. ) " Wind Power for Home and Business: Renewable Energy for the 1990's and Beyond" by Paul Gripe copyright 1993, ISBN 0-930031-64-4
Publishers: Chelsea Green Publishing Company
P.O. Box 130, Route 113
Post Mills, Vermount, 05058-0130

3. ) " The Solar Electric Independent Home Book" by Fowler Solar Electric copyright 1993, Published by: Fowler Solar Electric, Inc.
226 Huntington Road
Worthington, MA 01098

4. ) " Passive Solar Energy: The Homeowner's Guide to Natural Heating and Cooling" by Bruce Anderson & Malcolm Wells copyright 1994
Published by: Brick House Publishing Co. Amherst, New Hampshire

5. ) " More Power to You: A Proven Path to Electric Energy Indepence"
by H. Skip Thomsen, copyright 1993,
Published by : Oregon Wordworks, Post Office Box D, Manzanita, Oregon, 97130
- describes the author's electric system which utilizes a disel generator system to power a normal home


6. ) " The Independent Home: Living Well With Power from the Sun, Wind, and Water" by Michael Potts, copyright 1993
Published by: Chelsea Green Publishing Company
( see address above )

7. ) " Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook: A Practical Guide to Design and Implementation in Developing Countries" by Allen R. Inversin
Published by: NRECA International Foundation
1800 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
Phone 202-857-9696

All of these contain good information. Hope they help.
Back to lurking,
Arkbuilder

Your post on options should be dusted off and reposted periodically. I have a fistfull of Jun 99 and Jun 00 gold calls. I may have paid for them but should bad things happen to "big players", I have no illusions about being paid off. A word to the wise might be to not hold out for top dollar if the market gets hot ....... sell early and avoid a screwing. ..... Birds, hands, bushes and etc.

They are called Juniors. They don't expire unless the company goes bust AND they are giving them away instead of green stamps at a sharemarket near you.

Pinky's Tailing Box, THANKSGIVING EDITION...

Jeeves! Jeeves! Jeeves where in thunder are you? Jeeves what on earth
are you doing filling the bathtub in the middle of the day?

Er...Sir?

Jeeves, what's all that paper floating around in there?

Well Sir, I was watching CNBC and analysts were saying that tons of
money was "sloshing around" the world. Well, I tried putting money in
the tub, 100 pounds sterling to be exact, but it gradually all just sank
to the bottom. Disappointed, I put some Bre-X certificates in the tub
and by Jove look at them slosh!

Well done Jeeves! Of course, if you really wanted to see something going
around sloshed you should have seen us Bre-X shareholders the night
after they announced the Busang was a hoax, eh, eh.

Ha, ha, ha Sir.

Is Thanksgiving dinner about ready Jeeves?

I'll check on things now--it's going to be a fine feast Sir.

Yes, leave it to those Americans to come up with such a fitting
tradition.

Perhaps in the meantime I could find some news on the telly Sir?

Yes, splendid idea Jeeves. I've been a bit lax in following world events
you know. So what is in the news this morning?

Something about the American President Mr. Clinton and mistakes I hear.

Indeed? Is Miss Takes an intern too? Tell me Jeeves, if the American
president were in the same colony that celebrated the first traditional
Thanksgiving meal, how do you think he would have been punished for his
indiscretions?

Well Sir, I would imagine he would have been put in the stocks.

Really? You can't be serious man. Certainly his punishment was weightier
than that and would have been deserving of more than such a brief
smidgin of public humiliation.

Sir, I meant mining stocks.

Egads Jeeves, the man's not Idi Amin or Saddam Hussein!

$$$

From the Tailing Box...

Dear Pinky's Tailing Box:

Gold is cold, AG is crazy, lead is dead, copper is a flopper, zinc's
stinks, platinum is flat'n dumb, palladium's tell all I'm creamed, PM's
get reamed. --Realistically in the Market

Dear Realistic:

S&P's PE's scares mees. --Whirlwind

Dear Pinky's Tailing Box:

You know, you're a real turkey for buying all that Zappa! --Gobble
Gobble!

Dear Gobble Gobble!:

Even though I've dressed and stuffed myself with cheap Zappa shares
here, I still expect to eat and not get eaten. --Whirlwind.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! = )






Agree entirely. Some of these juniors might do you better than a metals contract picked up at the bottom just before the big turn. --Al

By DAVID WESSEL
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON -- Economic forecasters expect that preparing computers for the year 2000
will boost the nation's gross domestic product slightly in 1999 and shave it a bit in 2000,
according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

As part of a quarterly survey of forecasters, the Fed asked the economists how much their
forecasts had been affected by their assessment of what's known as the Y2K problem -- the
need to reprogram computers so they don't confuse the year 2000 with the year 1900.

On average, the 29 forecasters surveyed anticipate that
Y2K spending will add about 0.1% to GDP in 1999 --
roughly $8 billion -- and reduce GDP by 0.3% in 2000.

The survey didn't ask the economists to explain their
forecasts, or to assess the risk of economic calamity posed
by computers that may not function properly. Any added
spending increases GDP, whether or not it is productive;
the cost of rebuilding a highway destroyed by an earthquake, for instance, adds to GDP. If
companies offset the cost of preparing computers for the year 2000 by curtailing other
spending, the effect on GDP would be negligible.

The range of replies was large, but only four economists expect the Y2K spending to have a
negative effect on GDP in 1999 and only two expect it to have a positive effect in 2000,
according to Dean Croushore of the Philadelphia Fed's research department. Some economists
surveyed expect the Y2K problem to reduce GDP by as much as 1% in 1999 and by the same
amount in the year 2000. But others expect it to lift GDP by as much as 0.4% or 0.5%.

The new survey, like others, found widespread expectations that the economy will slow next
year. The forecasters expect inflation-adjusted growth to be at an annual rate of only 1.7% in
the first and second quarters of 1999, but they put the odds of recession next year at only one
in five.

The forecasters expect only a slight upturn in the unemployment rate, now at 4.6%, over the
next couple of years.

Don't get caught in the middle of a screw,
Cash those 390's at 392.

Yes. You know... I spoke to a broker friend the other day and he told me, ( somewhat conspiratorially ) , that he had purchased some put options on the major indexes with a 00 expiration- with the stated objective of capitalizing on the inevitable computer failures. I could only stare at this grown man with wonder.

Now think about the rather insane logic of that plan:

The computers will fail, so I will buy some options, ( expensive ones at that ) , that probably have little chance of being honored, because that computers will fail.

If the computers fail- the options won't be worth diddly.

If the computers don't fail- the options won't be worth diddly.

This guy has thirty years pushing stocks.

Crude DEC $15 call and put strangle cost 2500.
Gold Dec $300 call/put strangle the same 2500
Price of oil increase to $20 or decrease 10 is double your money
Price of gold either has to drop or rise $50 in order to get
the same profit.I go with oil as a volatility measure versus gold.
Price of oil is highly unstable and with this spread some impressive
gains can be racked up during the course of the year,with a price
decrease or increase the total value will rise 250 with every
dollar increase.I'm suggesting this now as there is high interest
in derivatives today.
that is my opinion of course.

Dangerous if your not on the bottom, but i think we are on the bottom. Bought about 30 companies in the last three months. They will move up well with a move in metals, the end of tax lose selling - now, and with a good drill hole, you often have a shot at a big exploration hole - e.g.arequipa .50 to $36 or International Curator .10 to $16 or Coeur originally .02 to $20; and they don't expire. They are way oversold - in my opinion. Stocks worth $5.00 in any normal mkt can be bought for .20. Today was a pretty good day - with metals down. Is tax loss selling coming to an abrupt end?

Cyclist - Just came on board and your post is not 100% clear. Does Crude have to drop $10 or TO $10.? This type of ambiquity drives me nuts! Sorry. One reason for differences in price required to see such and such % profit is obviously the fact that with gold you are starting with a much higher base number. %'ages me man, percentages!

what should we discuss or should we pray for ......

I'm glad you've got a day job.
.....................
Aussie gold market is dullsville. Last I looked was -.13%. POG seems to be sliding toward the lower end of its straight jacket.

I must confess, your charts are interesting. Would appreciate your interpretation. What do they forecast for the price of Gold in the next 1,3, and 6 months?

Kitco Christmas card at least! Very nice.......

Disclaimer:
Profits will determine the final opinion of this artwork ( g ) .

Mate, you just coined a new Kitcoism. As in the following-- Your 390 option expires worthless when Gold closes at 389. You just got a "day job".

Perhaps WE are the ones being a little too simplistic here Obsidian. A Rock Is a ROCK and coming from that frame of mind ( Obsidian ) maybe one such as yourself ( and many others here ) is ( are ) placing too Hard a belief in a 100% if/or situation. SO WHAT IF THE ( financial ) COMPUTERS FAIL for a day, or a week, or two, as long as there is a paper trail which has been previously printed or stored in some manner. As long as the system does not completely melt down into anarchy contracts may be still honoured. If I have a bank statement showing $100,000. on deposit on Dec. 31 1998 and a computer shows ZIP as of Jan.1st 2,000, does this mean that the bank gets to steal my $100 G's? I don't think so! Don't totally discount the system just because that seems to be the 'cool' thing to do. Many years ago ( 60's/70's ) an entire generation rose up against an oppressive Amerikan Regime and declared it to be a travesty. While there was much truth in such ideas, ( impitomized? in the Steppenwolf album: Monster ) , did this major generational angst and threat end the system? No. Don't count on total break-down. The Monster has much power and will fight back with all its strength to maintain its being.

Options are volatility plays.Oil has greater volatility and
price expansion than gold.A move of oil to $10 from the present
$15 DEC contract will give you $ 5000 gain.To have the same
stroke for gold it has to drop $50.
When you look at the prices of the different contracts ,you
can see instability of oil.Supply,weather,transport etc.
I hope that clears it up

i must post these charts so when discussion will occur everyone will be able to form their own opinion

Did you read my post?

I said, "his stated objective was to capitalize on the inevitable computer failures"

He thinks the sky will fall to our feet- hence the error in his logic.

You don't happen to own a slug of 00 puts, do you?

Your initial argument has merit, I believe. That is, that your paper statement of account will be honored ...... after 3 or 4 years of hyper inflation. As in: "We're sorry it has taken so long but this y2k thing has been a terrible burden on the banking system. ...... We hope you understand"

The second part of your view is misleading. In the 60's and 70's I did not have to worry about someone confiscating my cash if I attempted to purchase an airline ticket with disintermediated resources. ..... But then you know the litany.

If the 'Merika you remember from that era was oppressive, it was but a prelude to what exists now and what will inexorably evolve from here.

We are witness to the exercise of unbridled power in the hands of the corrupt. At all levels and in all spheres of influence. To deny its existence is to deny reality.

Cyclist - Of course oil is more volatile than Gold presently. Practically EVERYTHING in the World IS - at present. We used to speak of watching the paint dry around here - that was when Gold held REAL steady for awhile at about the $390. area. Well then it became quite volatile again ( mostly to the downside ) . Lately we don't even have to speak about watching the paint dry. IT DONE GOT SOLID; ( HARD-LIKE! ) .

Earl - I certainly don't deny its existance OR its reality! Obsidian - I may just be shooting from the hip at this time of night without really putting 100% of the gray ( grey? ) matter behind every word. Caveat Empitimus!
Goodnight Glenn - Wherever You might Be. Have you found a safe domicile far enough from ground zero yet?

Got a date and place set for the Toronto bash?

There have been 5 major failures of your topping lines since '91. The present red line will likely fail as well. Simply because there is too much loose money about. Money that must be safely collected and stored before millions of "investors" are taught the meaning of the term "no bid".

Last year someone posted a survey of 1000 "investors" by ML. It showed that 600 did not understand or know what the DOW was. ..... Ignorance that profound must be corrected from substantially higher levels.

It's also interesting to note that MACD was well behaved until the Japanese flooded the world with money in the spring of '95. ..... Sort of gives lie to Milton Friedman's contention that deflation can be corrected by printing money. At least it didn't help the Japanese any. ..... In a sense, the masters are harvesting Yen via the US stock market.

Since then ( 95 ) the MACD has begun to gyrate more wildly. The top may be near in time but not in price. Note that as we approach the old highs the MACD is still in oversold territory. ..... A cynic might conclude that the final drive to the top and consequent shearing of the sheep, will be coincident to the arrival of y2k. Y2k will be large enough to bear the burden of blame for the impoverishment of the 'Merican middle class. ......... On this day of Thanksgiving, let us give thanks to our masters for providing us with such a show. It truly is first rate.

Power in the hands of the timid is a waste of valuable resources.

The New York Stock Exchange and other U.S.
exchanges will also close 3 hours early at 1 p.m. New York time on Friday.

I too am up to the gills in gold Jrs. I don't know if it is the best but certainley the longest term options. Got some DROOY and SSC too.
approx 30,000 shares. Some are real losers. But if gold does turn even my loseres will be good. Got in fairly close to the bottom. A little premature.

May we all again be thankful that financial curses have not yet overtaken us.
Go gold
Nicodemus

Don't want the holiday to get away without an expressed thankfulness to those of you here. Though our ideas may differ, the desire to express and digest them is what we are about. Quite the atmosphere of our
early founders. I'm thankful for you all, and for Bart's efforts to provide the forum. Gulp and Puff to everyone, handshakes and hugs on this holiday. May everyone continue on their chosen path with my wishes that their goals are realized.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Milo

So is power in the hands of the aragant.....
As our present bad examples in the White House....

I too am thankfull for meeting all of you this year...
It was about this time last year that I found this place...
Truly a blessing....

Those overly emotional gents at Wall Street Underground, GAURANTEED DOW 5000 before Dec. 31 1998.....

Because of the prudent advice here I did not fork over $5K to follow this characture..

Amazing how linear thinking gets a serious look from the folks at this site.
Again very grateful for you all.

Understanding synthesis, and synergy in the markets is a serious challenge. Opinion is merely a starting point for the pursuit..

Thanks much...
Nicodemus

Your last post was quite bearish for the Dow. What levels do the charts forecast for the Dow in the next 1, 3, and 6 months? Are you saying it's Extreme Unction city for stocks?