Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:03 - ID#254288)

This damn world got along without computers since time began and can continue with or without them for a simular amount of time.
From my view point either direction is satisfactory.
Seems like that these widowed welfare mama's with four kids gotcha worried.
Go Mama's go, bless yer evil hearts fer tryen ta exist.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:06 - ID#219363)
Nah, the DOW goes up from here. I'm tired of betting against it. : ) As long as I stand to make money by a falling equities market it'll go up. Wait until all my options expire worthless, then maybe it'll go down.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:11 - ID#284255)
Petronius - it's a crazy world - perhaps I could become a coder???
I just accidentally stumbled upon the State of California's Year 2000 Compliance Survey!
What an eye-opener! It is at:

The report is 75 pages long, but do not be put off, lots of these pages are graphs and forms. They surveyed 402 cities and counties total about Y2K and what there plans are pertaining to Y2K.

Here's a couple of excerpts: Remember Our State Commission and Prepared this survey!

1 ) Over a quarter of those surveyed have NO plans to become Y2K compliant;

2 ) Among those who have no plans- and this INCLUDES some of the largest entities- more than ONE in FIVE have not yet made compliance a PRIORITY.

3 ) Among those WITH PLANS, more than one in ten have NO ONE designated as in charge, and OVER HALF - again, including some of the largest entities - have NO COMPLIANCE BUDGET. ( As of report date 11/13/98 ) ( read: we have plans, we just have no money to do anything about our plans )

4 ) Among those WITH budgets, close to a QUARTER of those responsible, have NO knowledge of the budget size!

5 ) Less than half of the compliance plans address embedded systems

6 ) Only about ONE in TEN entities WITH PLANS are fully compliant:
( read: only ( 10% ) of those that even have plans!

7 ) Only about one in ten entities WITH plans ( remember only 10% of all cities/counties even had plans- so this is 1/20th ) , are fully compliant. ( read: 90% of all cities and counties in California with 11 months to go, are
NOT compliant ) .

8 ) About of a third of those WITH plans, ( 1 in 10 ) , say they will not become compliant until the second half of 1999 or are not sure WHEN they will be compliant;
( what about T E S T I N G ) ?

9 ) I like this the best~ Almost NONE of those WITH compliance plans ( 1 in 10 ) have contingency plans, and less than half of these project development of such plans. ( OK guys, we have a plan, we don't have any money or anything to implement the plan, but, let's not worry about a silly little thing like a contingency plan too ) !

Quote from same survey: While the severity of the POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES of the above scenario would require more in-depth investigation, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT ALL IS NOT WHERE IT SHOULD BE RELATIVE TOO YEAR 2000 compliance at the local level. In addition, it is apparent that the nature of the problem is not uniform.

Another Quote: -snip- Eight out of ten respondents ( 81 percent ) said they have no contingency plans if their compliance efforts fail. In addition, among those without such plans, Figure 5 indicates that two-fifths ( 43 percent ) have no plans to develop them, and more than one in ten ( 14 percent ) are not sure.

If as of October 1998, 81% of our local governments ( cities, towns and counties ) have no contingency plans, and over half have no budgets to become compliant, where do you think that leaves us? All on our own. Keep

Read this for yourself, I read the whole thing and printed out the first 25 pages.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:12 - ID#93135)
Saturday moves once againw/ Gold in euro

1 Gold ounce = 256.938 on Friday [median 256.305/256.938 ask]
1 Gold ounce = 258.032 on Saturday [median 257.485/258.032 ask]
Dollar, on the other hand, 296.250 Friday---296.350 Saturday ho hum
Careful eye on Sunday's data, you betcha {:- )

Dollar charged the Dmark tho1.7045 Friday----1.7130 Saturday

Tyoung@brandishing.feathers You did not like? So colorful! So well adapted the long wooden legs for the wading through deep do. We are eagles [only we are in the very clever disguise]. {:- ) )

Petroniua@Welfare.Mommas It all seems to 'fit' somehow...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:17 - ID#348129)
Australia 1998 gold output seen down at 309 tonnes

SYDNEY, Nov 29 ( Reuters ) - Australian gold production is forecast to decline to around 309 tonnes in 1998 from a record 314 tonnes in 1997, Surbiton Associates Pty Ltd said on Sunday.

Production in the three months ended September 30 totalled 74.9 tonnes, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline in mine output, managing director Sandra Close said in Surbiton's Gold Review for the third quarter.

``Given the slight downward trend over the year to date, production will probably be around five tonnes less than 1997's record 314 tonnes,'' Close said.

Australia is the world's third largest producer of gold behind South Africa and the U.S.

The declining gold yield is the result of several factors, Close said.

``It cannot be explained by the low U.S. dollar price alone,'' she said.

``Exploration has been cut back ... you must explore to find more ore,'' Close said.

A lack of support from investors in Australia has forced mining companies to slash their exploration budgets, she said.

Moreover, uncertainties about the outcome of Aboriginal native title land claims had hastened a move by some miners to explore for gold outside Australia, she said.

``The effects are now being seen, with fewer new discoveries to replace production from mines which are nearing their end,'' Close said.

The only new mine to start producing in 1998 was the Cadia Hill lode in New South Wales owned by Newcrest Mining Ltd , she noted.

She said investors have become ``obsessed with the U.S.-dollar gold price,'' which has languished below US$300 an ounce.

``While the U.S. dollar gold price drives market share sentiment, Australian dollar gold prices and production costs affect gold sector profits,'' she said.

The Kanowna Belle mine in Western Australia, 50-50 owned by North Ltd and Delta Gold NL , was the lowest cost mine, with a reported cash cost of A$103 an ounce, Close said.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:22 - ID#34883)
where's skinny?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:54 - ID#225236)
SDRer - Welfare.Mommas It all seems to 'fit' somehow...
Of course it does. The government does not know how to fix anything -- it knows how to exponentially consume more and more resources PRETENDING to fix things. Y2K "fixing" is not any different than government education, government war on drugs, government war on crime, government war on illegal immigration, government war on poverty, etc, etc.

This is why the Y2K problem is going to be so cool. For many years the government schools were screwing up kids, turning them into perfect surfs. As far as the output of the majority of the government schools is concerned, the real-world skills such as math, physics, logical reasoning; are non-existent. There is no time to teach these things since the socialist brainwashing is so much more important.

By the way, if there is a single ex-welfare recipient who could somewhere, somehow help with fixing the Y2K problem; it would only be a proof positive to my theory that the main purpose of the government schools is to DESTROY any trace of unique, creative thinking, while putting imbeciles into positions of power ( Clinton  need I say more ) .

(Sun Nov 29 1998 00:57 - ID#225236)
Correction - previous message -
government makes people into perfect SERFS, sorry!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:02 - ID#290281)
This Week Barrons (stolen from another thread)
An interview with former Fed Gov. Lawrence Lindsey who sees all the problems those of us on the thread see. He calls the stock market a bubble and thinks his buddy, Alan The Printer, is aware of it. He also believes that the printing of money is very dangerous and that we will see a huge crash in stock prices. All of this is great. However, his solution, more deficit spending through a tax cut, is the usual American Enterprise Institute pap. That, combined with the printing would make the dollar fall like the Carolina Panthers and make it more difficult to fulfill the role of importer of last resort, which is what he wants to achieve.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:12 - ID#257150)
The Austin Lounge Lizards
Petronius SDRer
Whoever decided to educate those welfare mothers to program Y2K bug fixes with a waive of a magic wand can't have heard The Austin Lounge Lizards, as they missed a vital PC connection. They shoulda hired "Teenage Immigrant Welfare Mothers on Drugs" to get even more state subsidies.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:18 - ID#224230)
Time to sober up
All's quiet here in Kitco. You could hear a golden pin drop. Which is often the best time to put your ear to the floor and listen the faint rumblings from afar. I'm got a hunch that the meme of the year 1999 ( Y2K ) will be the theme of the month December 1998. Y2k is too complicated for most people to grasp and will result in people making red or black bets. Disaster or NOT ? And sufficient will bet on disaster to move the POG. Which will be a perfect excuse to finally allow the markets to tank - don't blame it on us - blame the geeks - and allow a whole social class to take what ill gotten gains they are astute enough to turn into real money ( GOLD ) and plan for their golden years....there's a vibe round here this week that says...Next week we're going to get sober, plan for 1999 etc. Unless Christmas/New Year 1998 will be the final bash. ( which won't affect my OCT99 gold calls anyhow ! )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:22 - ID#290281)
James Stack
Our favourite diversion remains the "baby boomer" thesis. With so many baby boomers pouring so much money into mutual funds, how can stock prices do anything but go up? Heaven help the Doubting Thomas who asks how the stock market just lost $2 trillion in 45 days this summer.... or the equivalent of more money than has flowed into equity mutual funds during the entire 1991-98 bull market!

In fact, the cumulative new cash flowing into equity mutual funds ( $1.1 trillion since January 1st 1991 ) compared with the cumulative $8.0 trillion increase in stock market capitalization is a difference of roughly $7 trillion or 86% increase revealing how much of this bull market's runup over the past 8 years has NOT come from mutual fund inflows. It comes from rising expectations and overvaluations.

Mutual fund inflows didn't fuel the majority of this bull market's gains and they won't prevent the unwinding. We could say that a thousand times. We could reprint all the supporting evidence of the 1960's. But that fact won't be understood or believed until after the next bear market.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:22 - ID#254288)

Problems facing gold miners worldwide is worst than many think. Most projects now on line envisioned that $380 to $420 gold would pay the bills, maybe bring a small profit.

The cash flow generated was intended to pay the pipers ( financiers ) who put up the cash or gold loans to place the projects on line.

Experieced miners normally would not cut such close corners unless they envisioned prices well above $420 soon after production startup.
I also wonder if many of these projects were put together by experienced miners, many are presently on the ropes. I expect many closures or takeovers, the takeovers are not guarantees of success, while the closures are doomed by the expertise of the aquirees.

If the miners are serious they would best band together and raise some hell.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:43 - ID#20359)
Namaste' gulp and a puff to all...looking at the commentary here and elsewhere...
one aspect of Y2K I fear greatly is due to the intense polarization created by Clintler...he has built a wall between white and black... women favor him and men detest him ( yes, generalizations ) and I believe America is far more divided than the "polls" indicate...the list is long...

At a time when people around the globe...within their borders MAY need to draw together to overcome adversity I contend that violence will be heightened due almost singlehandedly to Clintler and his the USA...

I have said here many times the best way to achieve a hidden agenda is to perform it right out in the open and Clintler has certainly done that...underneath all the "polls" and BS is a festering animosity...and I feel deeply this will explode...Y2k could very well be the match...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:45 - ID#43349)
People have thought that a stock market crash would move the POG. People have thought that the threat of war would move the POG. People have thought that flight to safety would move the POG. People have thought that flight to quality would move the POG.

Now some hope that Y2K will do it.

The price of gold marches to the beat of the inflationary drum as does long term interest rates.

When the dollar buys more, it buys more of everything.

Y2K could drop the price of gold even further.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:47 - ID#20359)
Clintler is Mr. Polarization.........................

(Sun Nov 29 1998 01:51 - ID#20359)
Whose gold is it?...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 02:52 - ID#20359)

(Sun Nov 29 1998 03:14 - ID#263119)
Lawrence Lindsey also explains the workings of present monetary policy:
It allows stock prices to rise and people to borrow against their margin accounts and spend.

He then quotes Greenspan: "It is not the job of the federal Reserve to prick the presumes that you know more than the market.....

Believe it I have got Barrons right here before me.

The FED is a knowing accessory to the bubble.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 03:19 - ID#34883)
Time Warp...Murray N. Rothbard: Fractional Reserve Banking

(Sun Nov 29 1998 03:23 - ID#263119)
We now have it on authority of Greenspan and close confidants that
1 ) It is the policy of the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy through inflating stock prices
2 ) The FED is unsure if there is a Bubble at all and even if there is one it will not be pricked by the FED.

Is this sensational or what? More details in an upcoming book by Lindsey.

This sort of talk should be good for another runup. I wonder if there will be some contradictory staement issued shortly by some Fed officials.

I have been disappointed with Barrons lately but Iguess I'll have to keep reading.

Good hunting.

Who Cares?
(Sun Nov 29 1998 03:34 - ID#189232)
Greenspan Bubble - Something to Ponder

Remember - it's only a bubble if it pops.

Quite frankly, I believe that Greenspan is adjusting monetary
policy based upon various quantifiable economic outputs. If so,
he will maintain a loose monetary policy regardless of M-1,M-2,
M-3 growth, dollar strength, etc.

I'd bet for the the bubble to last until next summer.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 03:38 - ID#263119)
In the same article Greenspan is also qoted as being confident that a stock market debacle will not spill over into the real economy ( see 1987 ) .

But this time its different: The game has become a whole lot bigger than in 1987 and it is also a question of size not only one of kind. Greenspan WAS worried about a liquidity crunch and credit contraction and a stock market crash would be induce an enormous credit contraction in effect a huge and sudden shrinkage of the money supply ( its hard to differentiate money and credit ) . The sheer size of the contraction combined with preexisting problems in the economy ( profit shrinkage ) should put us into
a deflation/depression scenario.

I am afraid gold will not do well initially but there sure will be a huge buying opportunity.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 04:18 - ID#280214)
Petronius@23:45 re welfare moms becoming debuggers
Maybe of cockroaches. But seriously - are they any USAF vets who remember the poster of an old desicated geezer in flight suit and helmet with the caption of "Sleep Well, Your Air Force is on Alert" or something to that effect? It's been a while since my SAC days so no doubt I've gotten the quote wrong. Does anyone remember it?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 04:21 - ID#284255)
``What's Related?'' Everything But Your Privacy

Netscape Communications Corporation's release of Communicator 4.06 contains a new feature, ``Smart Browsing'', controlled by a new icon labeled What's Related , a front-end to a service that will recommend sites that are related to the document the user is currently viewing. The implementation of this feature raises a number of potentially serious privacy concerns, which we have examined here.

Specifically, URLs that are visited while a user browses the web are reported back to a server at Netscape. The logs of this data, when used in conjunction with cookies, could be used to build extensive dossiers of individual web users, even including their names, addresses, and telephone numbers in some cases.

Computer Trouble Looms for Welfare Payments in 2000

(Sun Nov 29 1998 05:07 - ID#284255)
Gollum - cyber money
If the cyber money was to dissappear and we had to return to cash at a ratio of 1/10. Gold would soar in ratio to money.

Especially so because for the banks to have failed, would probably mean that most gold mines would not be functional.

With no gold production and a saveage distrust of cyber/paper money.
I'd guess gold's notional value would be much higher.

Asia will face big Y2K hit

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by country:
Level 1 ( 15% ) : Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israel, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K., U.S.
Level 2 ( 33% ) Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan.
Level 3 ( 50% ) : Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Yugoslavia
Level 4 ( 66% ) : Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe.

Y2K corporate failure rate predictions by Industry:
Level 1 ( 15% ) : Insurance, Investment services, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Computer Manufacturing
Level 2 ( 33% ) : Heavy Equipment, Aerospace, Medical Equipment, Software, Semiconductors, Telecom, Retail, Discrete Manufacturing, Publishing, Biotechnology, Consulting
Level 3 ( 50% ) : Chemical Processing, Transportation, Power, Natural Gas, Water, Oil, Law Practices, Medical Practices, Construction, Transportation, Pulp & Paper, Ocean Shipping, Hospitality, Broadcast News, Television, Law Enforcement
Level 4 ( 66% ) : Education, Health care, Government Agencies, Farming & Agriculture, Food processing, Construction, City & Town Municipal Services.

Multiply level 1 x level 1 for a soft landing.
Multiply level 4 x 4 for a hard landing.

Level 3 contains all the oil producing countries that will have problems with power, gas and oil, transportation, farming and food.

No oil means gold goes up in price.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 05:11 - ID#224230)
@gollum - Gold Marching to the beat of inflation
The gold-inflation connection...??? Historically perhaps, but let me change the rules. 2 + 2 no longer equals 4. OK ? Now what are you going to do ?

Y2K will be the first external shock EVER, to challenge almost everybody's confidence in the "system". The system being not only the financial mechanism, but almost the whole edifice of western technology/society. From GPS satellites to timely welfare checks delivery.

( you gotta larf - I read here that Teenage Mutant Welfare Mums are now going to fixit ( I'm a computer networking consultant by profession ) !! heeheeheehahahaha ) ONLY IN AMERICA !
...I'm O.K. now, I've got my breath back...

Your comments about POG/inflation remain correct as long as the mechanism by which a nudge on this side of the equation continues to predictably result in a little swing on the other and so forth.

Y2K has nothing to do with that - except to say...obviously....what if all the computers that make this whole intricate tango remain in the air suddenly stop working ? All bets off. And please note...It's the "WHAT IF" that IS the point.

And here's the perverse kicker....nobody will know whether it will end up being a trainwreck or a whimper - until some time after the magic date. Does anybody even beleive compliance reports ? And more cynically, what's the point of compliance if you have to do business with everybody else who isn't compliant. Might as well not waste time/money getting compliant hell with it.

And thus Y2K will focus everybody's attention beautifully. Protect your financial future or take a bet that ..... whatever.

And in 1999, with a host of Johnny come lately know-nothing disaster pundits on TV looking for their 15 minutes o'fame, and an unholy crescendo of endtimes-millenium cultists to appeal to the religious right, JoeSixpack won't know which way to turn. What exactly are they giong to fill 24/7 TV shows with now that BJBill has eluded them. Real News ?? Spare me - news doesn't sell. Fear and Greed sell - and pruriency of course.

And they'll also be a number of advance warning trip-ups to keep the twittering classes on their toes. Some of these most simple BIOS problems for example will manifest in September 1999 anyhow. Which will reinforce the belief that this is a REAL PROBLEM. And we'll have Dave Barry and Larry King, and Oprah...all putting in their twopennyworth.

Out whole technological society depends on confidence in "The System". Have you ever walked right under and around a 747 and asked yourself "How on earth is this thing going to get off the ground ?" Few people ever stop to do so. But nor do they know Bernouilli's principle. They don't care. Until their lives really depend on it. ASnd Y2K threatens to affect the quality of people's lives.

And most probably it will be the change in consumer behaviour based on NOT KNOWING which will be the real Y2K "disaster" - a domino effect starting not perhaps with JoeSixpack - too dense - how about the babyboomers....moving their money....

And as many Y2K Consultancy Company brochures proclaim, "This is one deadline which CAN'T slip".

(Sun Nov 29 1998 05:15 - ID#258142)
sharefin ``What's Related?''
It is not only about privacy with new Communicator 4.5. Here is a copy of e-mail, I sent yesterday to Netscape:
I am very disappointed with new version 4.5 of Netscape Communicator:
1. Program crashes almost every day, mainly on Java screens. Looks like beta version of software... My platform: NT 4.0 with service pack 3, ISDN connection. There was no significant problems when I used Communicator
version 4.2.
2. Today I have checking my mail, saw 4 messages coming in and then it crash ( dr. Watson screen appear ) . Messenger was the only one program running at this time. When I started Messenger again, after crash, I got a message "Can not open Inbox. You might have no permission...". Then it shows some sub-set of all messages I had in Inbox. When closed, it gave a message "Rebuilding Inbox list" or something like this. Now it's accessible again, but what is this?
3. When I click on "Inbox" button on Navigator window, it starts Messenger, but at the same time it try to contact
"" and start new browser window with Netscape adds instead of getting new mail from my Internet provider ( mail program is idle in such case ) .
In some cases, the browser quit the page, I am currently downloading or looking at and goes by itself to Netscape page. I want to decide myself when and if I want to check, what's new has Netscape. Can you tell me how to exclude this unwanted advertising?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 05:40 - ID#224230)
@gollum - the final point I forgot in my haste :)
Essentially, I agree with your point as long as the P.O.G. is connected in people's minds to "The System". In that case, it may not go up.

But any conversation about financial systemic breakdown ( and stockmarket meltdowns, inevitably lead to talking about gold. )

Now for the gamble I'm getting OCT99 360 calls ( I think DEC is too late for systemic reasons ) but for systemic fear reasons have also got physical.

IM ( H ) O - If the gold council focus on nothing else in their anticipated PR blitz in 1999, this is what they need to go for.

Ad campaign copy...."What's an ounce of gold worth ?...let me think now ....thinking.....oh yes, I remember...It's worth an ounce of gold. All over the world."

Just 2 things to ask. Is it pure / and does is weigh an ounce ? even JoeSixpack can "get" that simple proposition.

Who cares how many units of the fiat currencies of the 200 ++countries in the world it is notionally equivalent to ?

My perverse belief ( hope of course ) is that the P.O.Gold takes off like a rocket in 1999 and when this whole Y2K thing is really over - say 2005, and major international financial arrangements have been reimplemented - more fairly, with capital flows under control and hedge fund managers back in their cages, to everybody's benefit, gold finally becomes a mere commodity and sinks to prices dictated by the Laws of Supply and Demand.

The financial system Brahmins in Western Society were right to leave the gold standard in some respects in 1971, but idealistically a little ahead of themselves. But now, there's one more dance left in the old lady yet. And I plan to put on my dancing shoes.

This is what is cryptically implied here in my little esoteric philosophy books ! : )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 05:50 - ID#284255)
Sorry I can't help you there.
I run MS IE3 and I have to reboot my PC every three or four hours of surfing.
My RAM clogs up after using 10 browsers at once.

I also have dramas purging emails out of my system.

Two devils and two choices.

And constantly we have to upgrade to keep up with these new powerful programs.
IE4 has security holes as well.

And now there is talk of NT accessing the RTC.

Hardware upgrades galore and more headaches to come.

Technology is an iceberg we are just beginning to experience.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:01 - ID#284255)
If this happens there will be no banking system - no banks - they are all TOAST.

Resplice the url.

An interesting perspective as to why banks will have problems.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:08 - ID#340262)
IMF & World Bank

There is some great reading about the World Bank & IMf at the BBC Web Site, they go into the subject in great detail - cjk -

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:23 - ID#284255)
Dare to read Infomagic, Part II

What a mind-stretcher, what a depressingly, at first
reading, well-argued pessimistic piece about Y2K. The below
( above URL ) is the header of Cory Hamasaki's latest Washington DC
Weather Report, number 103 ( V. 2, Number 47 ) .

You really should read his guest writer's piece, "Infomagic,
Part II." I have no idea who this person is, Cory does not say
yet. If you are intent on holding an optimistic view towards
Y2K, you better be able to argue with Infomagic's argument. I
suggest you reread or read Capers Jones book and then Ed and
Jennifer Yourdon's book, particularly the Ripple Effect chapter
after reading Infomagic.

At a minimum, it makes me more intent to do far more fallback
planning than I already am, and I've been doing a lot lately.

If any of the readers on this list have read Yourdon's Ripple
Effect, and Capers Jones' book, and Infomagic, Part II, and you
feel you can convincingly argue Infomagic's pessimistic
conclusion, please email me. If you are only going to flame
the person's logic, don't waste my time and your time; I will
just delete your email. It is obvious that Infomagic spent a
lot of time reasoning his position out with decent research.

As for my own assessment? I'm sleeping on this but for the
time being, I can't shake it off of my mind yet. It gives
cause for very heaving thinking.

Come on, Cory, tell us who Infomagic is? Remember the book,
Atlas Shrugged? Who is John Galt?

To see a review of and order Yourdon and Jones books, go here:

--Roleigh Martin

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:23 - ID#412172)
News U Can Use
Cyprus still intends to import those AA missiles from Russia, Turkey won't like that, this will be found on the same site as the following.
First POSITIVE exposure for gold on the US media has been the story with the Salvation Army contributions. This is nice PR for gold and shows that not all goldbugs are E Scrooges ( grin ) . Of course it is about GIVING the gold away...something we on Kitco have been watching for too long!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:38 - ID#340262)
Internet Stocks
Article on internet stock mania - cjk -

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:57 - ID#348257)
I'm away from kitco for a week or so and what's the first thing I encounter when I surf in..?? Your Y2k post. Now I'm depressed.

I must say you are prosecuting this case quite impressively.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 06:59 - ID#411440)
@ sharefin: re Y2K, I want to set your mind at rest. The Metro
Toronto Zoo is compliant. My wife did the testing of the system for
entering memberships etc yesterday. It passed! There was no budget
for Y2K, and nobody fussed. It was just quietly fixed and tested.
We can all sleep more soundly knowing that Toronto citizens will be
getting their zoo newsletters on time.

I think some people have been a little hard on Alan Greenspoon of late.
Perhaps the reason he has been adding liquidity, and inflating the
bubble is to provide the time and funding for Y2K compliancy.
After all, if we crash now, firms with little money and no prospects
are unlikely to fix their systems.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 07:16 - ID#258142)
Thanks. What about "talk of NT accessing the RTC"?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 07:41 - ID#20359)
There is no question Y2K will have a deep effect on people the world over and the
worry effect is squaring everyday...those who think it will amount to nothing will be uncomfortable to say the least...I think it is absurd that any individual looking at the situation and having the lead time that has been in place is simply nuts for not having taken precautions...

But like the folks at Pompeii they will become a concrete part of history...the sad part is they had a deadline and plenty of advance warning to get out of harms way...

Live and learn...don't and die...tsk...tsk...tsk...a tisket a tasket put me in my casket...yup...uh huh...

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:00 - ID#287377)
Don't know what I'm doin' up so early, so it must be joke time
Monica walks into her dry cleaning store and tells the guy, "I've got
another dress for you to clean."

Slightly hard of hearing, the clerk replies, "Come again?"

"No," says Monica. "Mustard."


( attrib. to Memphis Earlene Gray with help from Uncle Plunky )

1. Most blues begin "woke up this morning."

2. "I got a good woman" is a bad way to begin the blues, unless you stick something nasty in the next line.

I got a good woman--
with the meanest dog in town.

3. Blues are simple. After you have the first line right, repeat it. Then find something that rhymes. Sort of.

Got a good woman
with the meanest dog in town.
He got teeth like Margaret Thatcher
and he weighs about 500 pounds.

4. The blues are not about limitless choice.

5. Blues cars are Chevies and Cadillacs. Other acceptable blues
transportation is Greyhound bus or a southbound train. Walkin' plays a major part in the blues lifestyle. So does fixin' to die.

6. Teenagers can't sing the blues. Adults sing the blues. Blues adulthood means old enough to get the electric chair if you shoot a man in Memphis.

7. You can have the blues in New York City, but not in Brooklyn or Queens. Hard times in Vermont or North Dakota are just a depression. Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City are still the best places to have the blues.

8. The following colors do not belong in the blues:
a. violet
b. beige
c. mauve

9. You can't have the blues in an office or a shopping mall, the
lighting is wrong.

10. Good places for the Blues:
a. the highway
b. the jailhouse
c. the empty bed

Bad places:
a. Ashrams
b. Gallery openings
c. weekend in the Hamptons

11. No one will believe it's the blues if you wear a suit, unless you happen to be an old black man.

12. Do you have the right to sing the blues?
Yes, if:
a. your first name is a southern state--like Georgia
b. you're blind
c. you shot a man in Memphis.
d. you can't be satisfied.
No, if:
a. you were once blind but now can see.
b. you're deaf
c. you have a trust fund.

13. Neither Julio Iglesias nor Barbra Streisand can sing the blues.

14. If you ask for water and baby gives you gasoline, it's the blues. Other blues beverages are:
a. wine
b. Irish whiskey
c. muddy water
Blues beverages are NOT:
a. Any mixed drink
b. Any wine kosher for Passover
c. Yoo Hoo ( all flavors )

15. If it occurs in a cheap motel or a shotgun shack, it's blues death. Stabbed in the back by a jealous lover is a blues way to die. So is the electric chair, substance abuse, or being denied treatment in an emergency room. It is not a blues death, if you die during a liposuction treatment.

16. Some Blues names for Women
a. Sadie
b. Big Mama
c. Bessie

17. Some Blues Names for Men
a. Joe
b. Willie
c. Little Willie
d. Lightning

Persons with names like Sierra or Sequoia will not be permitted to sing the blues no matter how many men they shoot in Memphis.

17B. Other Blues Names ( Starter Kit )
a. Name of Physical infirmity ( Blind, Cripple, Asthmatic )
b. First name ( see above ) or name of fruit ( Lemon, Lime, Kiwi )
c. Last Name of President ( Jefferson, Johnson, Fillmore, etc. )

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:04 - ID#287377)
@ To1erantl
I don't think lava hardens into concrete, babe. Igneous rock, maybe.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:09 - ID#20359)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...o'tay... you post sixth grade types are
all the same...heh...heh...heh...How bout whatever my is made outta...that stuff...figures I'd spell Pompeii right and screw up the rock stuff...grrrrrrr......

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:15 - ID#20359)
Hmmmmmmmmmm...from J. Taylor...web site at bottom of this portion of the article...

Unisys, a U.S. Computer firm said that a testing facility in Britain uncovered problems with more than 20 of that country's top 100 listed companies. David Palmester, a Year 2000 program manager for Unisis said that some of the problems they found would have taken their systems down. He also said that the quality of testing undertaken by these companies was very worrying.

But Britain is not the only place where there are problems. Crystal Systems Solutions, an Israeli information technology group, who has examined the compliance issue for more than 20 companies including Ford Motor Company, Pratt & Whitney, and a large German car manufacturer, said that "More and more companies that classified their systems as compliant or converted are asking for verification", said Ben Levy of Crystal Systems. He also said that in several cases Crystal Systems found that date issues were missed, not converted or converted wrongly. The problem is that one mistake in one program can cause a major problem to a business" said Levy.

The fact that some of the biggest companies are now fining that they have not in fact been compliant when they thought they were is really raising concerns about the compliance of many departments in many governments. Last week a company called Cap Gemini, Europe's biggest software and service company warned that it was already too late for governments, organizations and companies in Europe and the US to solve the millennium bomb problem. That company advised talking of the problem in essential services as a mater of urgency.

But really revealing the concern of this problem is the following fact. According to that same Financial Times article, the UK government has begun to make contingency plans to use the armed services, in conjunction with the police force, to combat problems thrown up by the millennium bomb.

I know it may sound like a crazy idea, you might want to purchase a bag of junk silver coins, just in case of a melt down. Come to think of it, with silver selling at under $5 you might want to buy some junk silver in any event.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:28 - ID#284255)
Mike - sorry mate
I'm not supposed to upset your digestion.

Personally I hope I'm wrong - way wrong.
But the tide seems to be turning as awareness spreads.

I wish there was some other way to see the POG up at the moon.
But your L/T vision of gold and silver prices way higher.
Will have to have a very strong lever.

I'm still here waiting to sell my home.
So I can get out of the way and get real physical gold.

Once I've sold you won't hear from me again.
I'm as patient as any goldbug.
But the days are slipping by.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:31 - ID#20359)
and no word in the mass media...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...
Clintonistas busted: Commie connection to White House discovered
Large lead of National Security Documents

by WebToday staff writers, November 25, 1998

The Clintonistas administration has been busted big time: There is a Commie connection to the White House ( as if WebToday readers didn't already know ) , according to newly leaked information that's about to go public.

Reportedly The Clinton administration now faces the most massive leak of classified foreign policy documents since the publication of the Pentagon papers more than two decades ago during the Vietnam war.
Within the leaked papers it is revealed that Clinton clearly slid through ballistic missile technology exports to the Red Chinese in exchange for Democratic campaign contributions. Allegedly one White House official stated, "The impeachment proceedings are going to have seemed like a picnic, before we get though with this."

The papers reportedly total over 20,000 pages, including a description of the failed policy of trying to pay North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons policy.

The papers allegedly also describe in detail the failed Clintonista intelligence and foreign policy failures that resulted in the nuclear weapons detonations by India and Pakistan earlier this year.

But Gore is not left unscathed. There is plenty on him as well. One can't help but wonder who is pushing for the new Speaker of the House to become the next ( unelected ) President of the United States. You know, President What's His Name...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:38 - ID#411440)
@ tolerant1: I am a Canadian, and junk silver prices have not
jumped greatly here. For example, one can buy 50 c pieces at $CAN2.50
which contain .3 troy oz silver. This works out at about 11% over spot
for silver content. My question is, if Y2K is no big deal, and
use of the coins next year as coins in not needed, can the coins
be melted for their silver content should spot POS rise? I understood
there are laws against destroying currency in Canada, and in most

Thanx in advance, Rhody

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:39 - ID#20359)
The UN troops are here...and Americans are fat and happy and watching stock prices...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:45 - ID#20359)
rhody, Namaste' gulp and a puff to the best of my knowledge junk silver has
no numismatic value at is free to be melted here in the US...SilverBaron will know for addition junk silver is a last resort if the system completely addition I believe that the US governthieves will not honor ANY form of money relating to gold and or silver as being mint money...they halted all ties to far as the governthieves think it is all just another commodity...hope this helps...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:52 - ID#284255)

It's still early days on this info.
I asked Harlan and he said
"I think GCN and the specific article are credible."

Who really knows but as time rolls on the RTC aspect becomes dirtier.
And the story on NT 5 or Win2000 is that we'll need a chip to go with the software.

I somehow feel that the PPT will hold this game up till the bitter end.
Asia is sure feeling the pinch trying to remediate now.

One can guess that the powers who be have been informed as to what's coming.
Trouble is no one knows how bad.
Optimism is paramount as we go forward.

As for the Zoo,
Perhaps we should cross this with the Pentagon.
Funny how the least important features of todays society are the easiest fixed.
Perchance Charlotte the spider will survive,
Even though her web is destroyed.

So clearly stated.
Such simple truth in your words.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:52 - ID#433422)
Mornin' Gents , Wonder if you'd answer a silver question for me.

I understand junk silver is sold by the "bag", and a "bag" consists of a certain denominated amount ( seems like it's $1000 ) . Since the weight of any of the "bags" can vary somewhat, and the AG content of the individual coins can be 60 or 90%, does anyone know what a close average price per oz a "bag o' junk" represents?
Sharefin, do you think the junk silver will be a better financial instrument than non-specific 1 oz. bullion coins ( I've got some that actually call themselves "SILVER TRADING UNIT" )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 08:58 - ID#411440)
@ tolerant1: Thanks. That does help. The question remains
will a Canadian pm refiner accept Canadian silver coin for melting?
I know that during the 1982 silver spike, many bags of Canadian
coin went south. Why wasn't it melted here, and are the statutes
against melting Canadian coin still in force in Canada?

So far I have put only a few hundred dollars into old silver coins.
Before I put more in, best to clarify.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:11 - ID#433422)
Nick, I'm workin' on the 3-d math model this coming week, Donnie figured out

the arced text thing, but only has one font available on the PT Modeler program hes workin' with. No sweat 'cause I will have to import the model to a different system anyway when I take it to the toolmaker ( I think it's AutoCad 14 with the Mechanical Desktop ) . The toolmaker has a couple of hundred fonts on his system.
I've got the die blanks finished as well as the ring piece.
I'm inclined to go with the 2000mg ( 2 gram ) weight with a selling price of $25 or so, but nothing's locked in stone yet. Other good possibilities are 1/35th oz and 10 grain.
Havn't heard from any of the guys in over a week ( 'coarse I've been delinquent in writing myself ) .
It's coming, hopefully before X-mas.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:18 - ID#284255)
Who can really tell till we see what's going to happen.

I'm not the best person to ask as I hold no PM's ( as yet )

My preference would run to gold though as it would be better for concealment.
I think normal coinage would be good to hold.

If y2k kills cyber money
Small coins could well appreciate strongly.

My preference for gold runs to long term safety.
A small ammount can represent great wealth.
Whereas silver and normal coinage would be more for day to day use.

If cyber money crashed we could well see prices fall to a 1/10th of current values.
A $500k home selling for $50k
Such a devaluation would destroy the confidence in paper.
And we could well see gold propelled much higher.

$500 in gold carried through these times could well return a multiplier of 10/1 or 20/1.

Who really knows.
How big is that bump really going to be???

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:22 - ID#284255)
Who can really tell till we see what's going to happen.

I'm not the best person to ask as I hold no PM's ( as yet )

My preference would run to gold though as it would be better for concealment.
I think normal coinage would be good to hold.

If y2k kills cyber money
Small coins could well appreciate strongly.

My preference for gold runs to long term safety.
A small ammount can represent great wealth.
Whereas silver and normal coinage would be more for day to day use.

If cyber money crashed we could well see prices fall to a 1/10th of current values.
A $500k home selling for $50k
Such a devaluation would destroy the confidence in paper.
And we could well see gold propelled much higher.

$500 in gold carried through these times could well return a multiplier of 10/1 or 20/1.

Who really knows.
How big is that bump really going to be???

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:23 - ID#20359)
rhody, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...ah yeah...that certainly was an integral part
of your curiosity which I did not that I think of it I would imagine Bart would know better than anyone my friend...yup...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:28 - ID#20359)
fin that shares, Namaste' gulp and a puff...whatever I know or think about is
without question...due in large measure to you my friend as you have tried to untangle Y2K and present the information for those who would listen...yup...uh huh...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:31 - ID#430221)
Request for help/information about taking tax losses
I imagine everyone knows all this stuff except me, but could someone tell me the rules in the USA for selling some of the stocks I own thast lost the most and taking a tax loss on them, while at the same time ( or later or whatever ) buying back the same or similar stocks? Am I right that I need to do the selling tomorrow at the latest? Do I have to wait to buy anything back? - Can I buy the same stocks again, or just similar ones? Do I have to wait? What's the deal with doing it at the end of November at the latest? Any help would be most appreciated. Many thanks in advance.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:56 - ID#20359)
O'tay...tell me something I don't know...sheesh...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 09:59 - ID#245136)
Crystal Ball 8:00 blues post
PERFECT...thank you

(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:17 - ID#286230)
Envy--Netscapre 4.08
I had problems with 4.05 and have scrapped it and have been using 4.08 for about a month with out freezing or other problems. It can be downloaded from here and is on the bottom line of the Netscape 4.05 section and is called the "Official release". Save your address book as it will not automatically pick it up.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:24 - ID#290456)
Junk Silver

As far as I know, there are no restrictions on melting silver coins in the U.S. Huge quantities of these coins met this fate in the 70s & 80s.

As far as buying pure silver vs. junk silver....the only advantage of junk silver coins are that they are recognizable and the silver content is not questioned. For this reason, they usually have a slight price premium to silver rounds or other forms of pure silver. You would be extremely lucky to find anything of numismatic value in bags of junk silver, as most of these have been completely searched before packaging.

Here is a link that gives most of the information on junk silver.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:31 - ID#284255)
Planes may be grounded soon over Y2K fears
Planes and helicopters belonging to Irish aviation companies may be grounded from January unless they comply with strict Year 2000 guidelines set down by the Irish Aviation Authority ( IAA ) .

The IAA has warned that from January 1 it will not renew licences for air carriers unless they can show IAA inspectors that they are well on the way to completing their Year 2000 compliance programmes.

The impact of this new directive is not known. Spokespeople for both Aer Lingus and Ryanair said that they were involved in Y2K programmes and that these were well advanced.

They felt that the IAA directive would not be a concern. However, an industry source suggested that not all airlines would be ready for the January deadline, citing the example of British Airways, which is not expected to complete its Y2K programme until next April.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:51 - ID#219363)
I think your post to me was meant for someone else. : ) Sincerely, the blues man, Blind Envy Johnson. Woke up this morning, woman's watch'n the tv. Didn't fix no breakfast, wouldn't talk to me. Said "What's the mater baby ?", she gave me a stare. She said, "I wanna go shopping, so go fix your hair". I got the blues. I got the Christmas shopping blues.

The Hatt
(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:56 - ID#294232)
Money will start to move into the Quality Juniors.
Not many would disagree that the risk far outweighs the upside potential on the big boards. For this reason alone I feel that some of this money will go looking for leverage in Quality Junior Resource Companies. This bear market has been unusually painful and that is why so many investors cannot recognise the trend reversal that has begun. The VSE looks like the Indonesia market and unless you feel the VSE is doomed,it is about to turn. As with the end of all bears investors that have held losing positions over the last two years tend to be reactionary and dump their positions at the wrong time. The smart money is accumulating these stocks now and quietly taking the bargains offerred by these reactionary investors.
For Americans that believe the USD is in trouble these quality juniors offer not only huge leverage to gold but also to the exchange rate. There is little doubt that a percentage of the American Investors will begin to see the leverage and will take advantage of the historically low prices on Quality Juniors. You note that I say Quality! My definition of quality is fully funded and or in production! There are a number of these that fall into that category and they will be the first to move. Buying at the bottom is so very difficult yet so very rewarding! Once gold breaks the three hundred resistance and makes it a new support level we will immediately begin looking for three hundred fifty and at that point the entire VSE will come alive with the sounds of $400.00. As most believe we are about to enter the bull of all bull gold markets and the Junior Resource Companies will trade at huge multiples of their current levels.
Just one mans opinion.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 29 1998 10:56 - ID#24135)
programmers .. crims .. rugby nuts .. r us
For Sharefin ..
I was interested in the level my level ranking of countries
that placed RSA in the same grouping as Bulgaria and Saudi
... Info Ive seen places RSA in top 6 worldwide .. what is
the source of this ranking .. I suspect RSA was eyeballed
in .. we have lots or crime .. we also have lots of
programmers .. not to mention Rugby players

... Systems here will be y2k compliant ... ( even though
they might get highjacked )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:01 - ID#219363)
Gold Coins Aren't Traded Friday
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Gold coin trading was not held Friday because of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:02 - ID#348257)
Crystal Ball, Tolerant
CB - Blues bit was very funny.

Getting back to old Pompeii
I just learned the other day
That those bodies there
were covered in ash
and burned away inside a flash
leaving gaping empty places
with barely any body traces
which archeologists their craft
to master
went ahead and filled with plaster
then they cracked each ashen mold
and viewed those "bodies"
there of old
As wide-eyed observers grimaced
and moaned
and came to the conclusion
they all died stoned.

John Disney
(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:04 - ID#24135)
now be honest wid yerself ..
to all
after watchin the ole rugby match
tween Ireland and South Africa..
I ask yer .. now who would yer
ratder have fixin the ole compuder.
.. an Irishman or a Soud African ??

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:04 - ID#219363)
Europe Stock Markets Seek To Unite
PARIS ( AP ) -- Hoping to keep up with Wall Street, eight of Europe's most powerful stock exchanges agreed Friday to support moves to build a regional stock market. The agreement comes four months after the Frankfurt and London exchanges announced plans to form a joint market. The French had criticized the Anglo-German plan at the time, but since then Paris has been seeking a way to get in on the proposed alliance. At the meeting in Paris hosted by the parent company of the French stock exchange, exchange officials agreed to form a committee to discuss issues such as a trading schedule for the market, coordinating trading rules and technologies and the ways that stocks would be listed and valued. Of all attendees, only the officials from the Stockholm exchange declined to join the committee. Stockholm had previously expressed skepticism about the proposed exchange.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:11 - ID#219363)
U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs Still Total 686
HOUSTON ( AP ) -- The number of oil and gas rigs operating nationwide remained the same at 686 this week, Baker Hughes Inc. said. There were 1005 rigs operating in the United States during the same week last year. Of the rigs running this week, 507 were exploring for natural gas and 179 for oil. Houston-based Baker Hughes has kept track of the count since 1940. The tally peaked at 4,500 in December of 1981 during the oil boom. It dropped to a record low of 596 in the summer of 1993, exceeding the previous low of 663 in 1986. The rig count represents the number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:12 - ID#219363)
OPEC Fails To Agree on Prices
VIENNA, Austria ( AP ) -- OPEC oil ministers have adjourned their testy year-end meeting after failing to agree on measures to halt a slide in world oil prices. With prices hovering near a 12-year low, analysts predicted before the meeting that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would extend the cuts until the end of next year. Instead, it decided to review the situation in March at the cartel's next scheduled summit, secretary-general Rilwanu Lukman said Thursday at the conclusion of the year-end meeting. "We have already got an agreement," Lukman said in an apparent effort to ease disappointment that OPEC had failed to take action. January Brent futures in London closed at $11, up 10 cents from Wednesday's close.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:15 - ID#20359)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
I'm booking a flight to Pompeii as I type...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:20 - ID#432148)
South's corporate web pages are the best I have seen
internationally. They are attractive, well organized and complete,

with many innovative touches. To Australia, I would award the gold

medal for printed publications. Their corporate reports and magazines

are of outstanding quality, imho.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:27 - ID#348169)
@ Rhody, Tolerant1 and ALL (Toronto area meeting)
Rhody - As you state, I too am almost positive that it is against the law in Canada to deface money or coin of the realm. Who'd want too? Jewllers or artisans would surely rather work starting with pure silver and add their own 'mix' as necessary, and others, who are holding coins as a store of value, well, what's the point in melting something that already has a recognized, standard content?
Tolerant1 - about two weeks ago or so, I saw you mention a donation in honour of Bill in Oregon - Did I miss something? He is OK is he not? And you yourself - fully recovered yet?
ALL - Holiday luncheon/dinner meeting in Toronto is shaping up. Looking at Dec. 11th 12th or 13th as possibilities. Comments or to be on list for updates email me at:

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:28 - ID#219363)
An absolute MUST if you're going to that part of Italy is to take time and go down further to Positano. It's a cliff city and is absolutely amazing, remember it forever kinda stuff. I could have lived there for the rest of my life *grin*. Also, if you've got time for a day trip on the train, Paestum is further down and has some nice Greek architecture. I'd check before going, however, because they were working on the place when I went and I couldn't get close. You just have to spend a night in Positano, however, you won't regret it. It's close to Pompeii, about as far from Pompeii south as Pompeii is south of Naples.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:30 - ID#317193)
The sun is just coming out from behind the clouds....Beautiful day...
sharfin...can you update us with any new links you add to your site? I don't know whether to thank you or curse you...used 55 gallon plastic barrels for $7...bought a few...wife just said she would sell them in a garage sale in 2000 in not in use...she doesn't think I'm crazy but I do...making that battery charger with the small motor and alternator...son is having a ball.

Sheller...when is oil going to go up...spring '99? Gold????

Tol#1...please, no more lawyer stuff...Sunday is a day of rest? Let me rest...TIA

JD...watching to see how Chris does with these markets...very interesting call on the retracement after the run to $325-35. Does not seem to be alone on this especially the e-wave folk.

Omaha still has golf it!


Gusto Oro
(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:34 - ID#377235)
Mad Hatter...
Yes, that mother of all gold bulls!

I've been buying a small exploration company named Zappa Resources ( ZPA ) on the VSE. I started two years ago with 1100 shares at 65 cents US. Recently it's been trading at 11 cents US and I've bought the great majority of my shares within the last couple of months between 11 and 12 cents US. The company has a property in Ecuador with good drilling results to date. It is in partnership with Cambior. Cambior is looking at acquiring further claims surrounding the Zappa site. Zappa has little debt and has swung a deal with Ecuadorian Minerals giving them cash, shares and royalties from a deal that swapped other properties for these considerations.

Drilling results so far on the remaining La Plata gem property show an oz of silver per 10 oz of gold ( 1.5 million oz gold proven ) and I like the heavy silver credits as I believe silver will ride higher and rise faster than gold in coming months. Tax write-off is banging the stock up a bit but Cambior will announce drilling plans for next year soon and that should get things rolling. As always, there may be more grains of salt here than gold.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:41 - ID#334219)
Of course, the Separatists demand may not be reasonable..However the majority of french speaking quebeckers are not asking for that much. They can life with Federal income tax and other stuff...

As for Quebec being carried by Canada for the past 30 years...well I can understand that part of this is true...after all Ontario was built real strong before the "revolution tranquille" with the auto industry. They had more than their share with Quebec getting peanuts in what was THE strategic market sector to be in. Things are now changing with Quebec becoming the leader in some industies. We owe all this to la "SGF" and "La Caisse de Depot". Now that Quebec is on its way to participate equally in this great country, I think it would be stupid to let it go.

Snowbird, Quebec is french. No assimilation is possible..nor is it needed. May be what you say is true and separation is the only way out. I hope not, because I feel at home when I go to Vancouver...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:46 - ID#219363)
Market Rap with Bill Fleckenstein
If the Fed Buy 'Spoos', Should You?

Grant's Fall Conference - November 12, 1998 : I'd like to start today with a quote from a Wall Street Legend. "It's very rare that you can be as unqualifiedly bullish as you can be now." That was Alan Greenspan, not in 1998, but on January 7, 1973, two days after the market peaked on its way to declining 50% over two years as we endured the worst recession since the depression. I'm sure most of you are not aware of this but A.G. actually used to teach a market timing class which is where I met Jim. We both flunked the class - that's why we aren't working on the sell side or at the Fed. When I last spoke to this group in the Fall of 1996, the topic was "Return of the Cycle". At that time, and until the summer of 1997 when the collapse of the Thai Baht brought down Asia, the existence of a business cycle, credit cycle, any outcome - other than permanent prosperity - was held in contempt by an enormous percentage of the investing public. The editors of Wired magazine, who were also in our timing class, produced this issue ( slide ) cheer-leading the case for the new era in July 1997, smack dab at the economic top. P.J. O'Rourke captured this mindset best when he wrote, "Maybe the magic of Wall Street can work for everyone in the world. Perhaps the peasants of China can all "go public" and form a billion corporations with assets of "1 water buffalo, 2 conical hats, wok." Each peasant will then make an initial public offering, sell his stock, get rich, and put a lap pool in the rice paddy."

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:52 - ID#219363)
Money supply grows too fast; local economist raps Greenspan
The last time the stock market experienced a dramatic runup like the one we've seen this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan put the big chill on investors by complaining they were victims of "irrational exuberance." Investors were pouncing on stocks like a golden retriever puppy pounces on house guests. Greenspan was attempting to bring them to heel by implying there was little expectation that the money they poured in was justified by what they could expect to get out. This week's records suggest that "irrational exuberance" may be with us again, but not from whom you would expect, according to Comerica Bank's David Littmann. Detroit's leading economist asserts that it's the previously unassailable Greenspan himself who is irrationally pushing the market up without a proper consideration of the repercussions in the future. The Fed's No. 1 job is to protect the integrity of our nation's currency by managing inflation. It's done an excellent job driving that train with a steady hand in recent years, but Littmann contends it's now falling off the track. One issue is the Fed's monetary policy, which deals with the rate at which the nation's central bank pumps money into the economy. For inflation to remain low, the supply of money should grow only as fast as our output of goods and services. Yet it's now growing four times as fast.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 11:57 - ID#219363)
One single dollar passed from person to person across 10 people generates 4.20$US in taxes for the government. Definitely the deal of a lifetime.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:01 - ID#225236)
Welfare Moms Fixing Y2K - more links
For those who missed it, the original CNN story:

Now more links, the web site of company that created that wonder ( it is a non-profit, "charity" organization ) :

And the FAQs:

A couple of quotes from their FAQs:
"How can you expect to train anybody in 3 months to program computers?

While the Y2K problem is a serious one, many aspects of its remediation are decidedly not high-tech. This provides the opportunity for the TekAid Program. Program graduates will not be qualified to develop new software applications or even provide general software maintenance support, but will be capable of scanning existing COBOL programs for date-related fields and tracing the logic of the program to find calculations involving those fields. Apprentice programmers will also be capable of operating COTS tools which scan software looking for date-related fields and analyzing the code to determine whether a change is needed and what change should be made. At some point, the apprentices will have the experience and additional training to take on additional challenges in the software field."

Are we having fun yet? May I perhaps interest anybody there in a utility called GREP?! Maybe I can sell it to the government for a $1 Million? Just dreaming. GREP is WAY too complex for them since it actually works!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:08 - ID#219363)
Foreign Banks Balk at US Takeovers
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Deutsche Bank's pending takeover of Bankers Trust Corp. puts pressure on other foreign banks to look for takeover targets in the United States, but don't expect an invasion just yet. U.S. bank stocks have recovered from their late-summer swoon, making purchases more expensive. Foreign banks also have plenty of concerns at home, including Europe's conversion to a common currency and a protracted economic slowdown in Asia. Then there are the formidable cultural and regulatory obstacles to consider. "Foreign companies want to make foreign acquisitions," said Ben Phillips, a bank consultant at Cerulli Associates, Inc. in Boston. "Whether they can or not is a different question." As banks' corporate clients and their financing needs become increasingly global, and technological innovations continue, the urge to merge -- both across financial businesses and national borders -- is powerful.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:09 - ID#147201)
Squirrel re Joke poster at SAC
I can't remember all the details either, but I saw something similar at Goodfellow in 52. That was a TAC base. I'll work on it and see if I can come up with some of this humor. Best thing we had was the oxygen - which will cure a nagover in a snap. After a big weekend in Dallas etc, we jumped to the flight line and got cured in a hurrry.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:11 - ID#402236)
Hopefully times have changed?
Remember years ago, being told by an old timer, who played the markets all his life, that the VSE and a Vegas casino had a lot in common!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:16 - ID#35757)
You can call Dec gold in OCT, No?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 12:47 - ID#20359)
Mooney, Envy, TYoung, Namaste' gulps and puffs all around...BillinOR is doin just
fine...I was thanking him for something...Envy, I was joking, but thanks for the travel tips...M. Sheller said those folks died stoned in Pompeii...and got mas...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 13:21 - ID#228136)
My analysis suggests that we are very near critical support for gold. What has transpired over the past few weeks can be viewed as a correction in the shorterm upwards trend. The correction in gold should end in the first two days of this coming week. If not then we will be heading down from the top of its current range. Since gold, the general market and the dollar have been moving together ( not in the same direction but together nonetheless ) it would seem that gold would get a boost from a turn in the general market and the dollar. I get no sell signal for either so it may come to pass that we head down to 277 gold as suggested by APH. On the other hand we are overdue for a correction/resumption of the bear market trend which began in July. This week though should tell the tale for gold.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 13:51 - ID#190411)
More Rothbard,

Murray Rothbard would have been a great addition to this site.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 13:53 - ID#190411)
Another Murrayism

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:11 - ID#190411)
A timeless essay by Leonard Read

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:13 - ID#190411)

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:14 - ID#287279)

Based on his comments on computers, large systems, and programming, Infomagic has substantive, serious expertise. In addition, there are multiple dimensions to his experience set. While this is not a formal proof of correctness for his dark projections, Infomagic has a strong technical basis upon which to build.

"...that collapse is probable even in an unreasonably optimistic best case scenario in which all of the systems are fixed before 2000. In any of the more realistic scenarios this collapse is absolutely certain. I would also like to explain just how devastating that collapse will be and to show that recovery in our lifetimes is an extremely unlikely outcome. We must prepare for a dark period of several generations during which much of our technology and knowledge will be lost and after which there may be a slow recovery by our descendants. Such preparations are the subject matter of this series of articles. However, we must also prepare ourselves for the very real possibility that the outcome of this situation might well be the total extinction of the entire human race. It really could be worse than I am predicting and I really *am* being optimistic."

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:16 - ID#432148)
Gold/silver bottom?...
Silver has completed a 40 cycle to the downside, and that coupled with

the record high Dow/gold and Dow/silver ratios ( 31.5 and 1900 ) seem

to suggest a possible turning point sooner rather than later.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:21 - ID#190411)
Check this one at your leisure:

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:37 - ID#13953)
Goldilocks, Nov 30th!!!! What?????? tell me you were wrong about that
Folks this is serious, what about selling those BEARX shares for a loss and buying back in after the first???? Please, anyone who knows the rules for this act I too need the answers. Thanks.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:42 - ID#348257)
In answer to your query about oil ( and gas, of course ) I am starting to grow more and more bullish. Signs of a few o fhe energy stocks I like are settling back into double bottoms, and I think that it is now time to start nibbling. Yes - I see Spring as when the astrological configuration that has been weighing upon Oil & gas ( Saturn oppose NYSE Neptune - a real no-brainer if ever there was one ) will be finally moving off. This year-long phenomenon is what led me to predict last November or so that 1998 would be a down and flat year for oil. I think we are now looking at a major bottom, and the potential for a secular energy bull that will last for many years. Gold will tag along as well. I get positive readings on a clumping of oil shares for the months ahead, and again around the year 2000. So I think we are preparing for a significant bull. All the negative factors are in place and have been discounted for a bottom at the present time. We could get a final spike down in the coming weeks, but that would be the time to jump in. You might want to look at CRK and KOGC - two low priced shares which at current prices can bring 200-300% in the next couple of years. Start nibbling your favorite little oil stock now. The winter will bring the last chance here.

Mike Sheller
(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:44 - ID#348257)
Pardon my density, but what is a 40 cycle for silver? thanks!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:53 - ID#219363)
Dunno. Here's the 3 month for BEARX and the 2 year. Doesn't look like there could have been a worse time to sell it than right now. Also, the way the graph looks, it appears that people have been gradually selling it off since the downturn and the graph has gone sort of horizonal. I don't know how much cheaper it'll get unless something truly tragic happens, my guess is that it's probably bottomed out. Even on a 2 year it's pretty much bottom feeding, looks like a good time to buy, not sell. Never listen to me though.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 14:57 - ID#227238)
For months now, I have considered the options for a secondary source of power. The use of a generator set has seemed, to me, to be an intolerably inefficient use of fuel.

As stated in the past, I have been pursuing methods of storing energy and replenishing the storage either from renewable sources or a small generator operating at higher levels of fuel efficiency.

For my needs, the most obvious solution has always been a battery pack for storage and replenishment via an alternator and small gas engine. .... or solar or wind or hydro and etc..... Solar is the most obvious but here in western Oregon it's totally out of the question.

Given that, I have been searching for DC to AC inverters that are both of high quality and that offer some flexibility for future expansion, should the need arise. There are not many choices in that regard.

As of this weekend, I am more convinced than ever that the battery/inverter/alternator is still the best solution, though more costly, and will begin pulling the stuff to together to do it.

If anyone here has an interest in pursuing the subject further at any level, please feel free to email me.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:06 - ID#20359)
ERLE, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...thanks for the read...the Lady puts things
quite clearly...I agree with the point...yup...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:13 - ID#20359)
SHEK, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the end of Mankind...I could not get through
to the link you posted...but I will say this...I totally disagree and in addition I think that material like that and statements such as those are what keep millions and millions of people from taking any precautions and think Y2K is a joke...which it is not...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:14 - ID#219363)
Stocks Rally Has Been Spectacular
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The stock market's rally in the fourth quarter of 1998 has been even more spectacular than its third-quarter decline. Less than two months ago Wall Street was reeling from the worst selloff to hit the stock market in eight years. Now the blue-chip averages are back setting record highs, behaving as though the late-summer drop was nothing more than a bad dream. "The reversal of the market's mood has been nothing short of head-spinning," says Jim Griffin at Aeltus Investment Management in Hartford, Conn. Numerous studies have shown that the market really isn't more volatile than it used to be. In fact, several studies show that recent gyrations merely represent a return to the historic range of ups and downs after several years of exceptionally low volatility in the early and mid-'90s. What's different now, it seems, is that everything happens faster than it ever did before.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:18 - ID#219363)
Bargains Rule in Holiday Shopping
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Bargain hunters were out in force the first days of the holiday shopping season, with stores offering deep discounts and low prices faring best over the Thanksgiving weekend. Some of the nation's big retailers reported Sunday that shoppers went straight for sale racks and flocked to stores that offered the best deals. Discount stores, like Wal-Mart and Target, were the big winners of the weekend.
Talked to one of my friends this weekend and she confessed that she actually had a nightmare one night that she couldn't find a gift she wanted to buy for someone, that every store she went into had sold out. America is something else, I love it.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:22 - ID#219363)
Soros Warns of Recession Ahead
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Billionaire financier George Soros believes that despite the recent upswing in world markets, the global economy could slip into a recession in the next couple of years, Newsweek reported. Though U.S. stock markets have regained momentum and are now at all-time highs, "we are still in a bear market, and the previous lows will be retested, let's say, next year," Soros told Newsweek in the issue due out on newsstands Monday. The near-collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP nearly drove the market to a meltdown, said Soros. It was staved off by a rescue package brokered by the Federal Reserve, as well as subsequent interest rate cuts by the Fed that injected liquidity into the markets, he added. Still, that won't be enough, Soros said. The United States is in the midst of a "fairly mature boom" and faces increasing cost pressures. Japan remains in recession, and Brazil likely will follow suit, despite a recent global aid package of $41.5 billion, he added. As investment opportunities decrease, Soros said "the global economy is liable to slip into a recession next year or the year after."
Yeah right. If Soros knew what he was talking about he'd be a billionaire.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:22 - ID#339274)
coming week
As posted,gold under pressure for the coming week.Dec 293 an
important floor with 70/71 XAU to confirm.Next support Dec 291
and 67 XAu.Oils making an important bottom in the second week
of December.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:24 - ID#287279)
You must read the article!!!!!

Try again:

It appears unreasonable until you read it from start to finish.

cory hamasaki's
DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 47

"November 27, 1998 - 423 days to go." WRP103


In the first article of this series I predicted that the failure of even a small number of our computer systems, combined with fundamental problems already existing in the global economy, will lead to the total collapse of civilization as we know it. I would now like to expand on that and show you that collapse is probable even in an unreasonably optimistic best case scenario in which all of the systems are fixed before 2000. In any of the more realistic scenarios this collapse is absolutely certain. I would also like to explain just how devastating that collapse will be and to show that recovery in our lifetimes is an extremely unlikely outcome. We must prepare for a dark period of several generations during which much of our technology and knowledge will be lost and after which there may be a slow recovery by our descendants. Such preparations are the subject matter of this series of articles. However, we must also prepare ourselves for the very real possibility that the outcome of this situation might well be the total extinction of the entire human race. It really could be worse than I am predicting and I really am being optimistic.
First, I would like to assure you that I am not some kind of nut anxiously waiting for the end of the world. I am a professional computer consultant with 30 years of extensive, hard won experience in many different areas of information technology. I have programmed at the lowest machine code level on everything from small embedded systems all the way up to the largest mainframes. I have co-invented computer hardware and developed novel solutions to very complex problems. I have designed and implemented very large scale business computer systems and I have planned and managed the creation and growth of entire mainframe data centers. I have also worked at a senior level in some of the best consulting organizations in the world. In short, I am a super geek, with an extensive real world and management background beyond the art of computing itself.
I have been aware of the Y2K problem for at least 20 years, and actively working on it for about three. Until the beginnning of 1998 I believed that the problem could still be mostly fixed and I have always been skeptical of the wilder claims of potential Y2K failures. For example, as an airline and instructor rated pilot ( my secondary career ) , I don't believe that airplanes will fall out of the sky. However, I am quite certain that many, if not most, large commercial aircraft will indeed be grounded -- by shortages ( and higher prices ) of fuel, by crippled Air Traffic Control systems and by the lack of sufficient general economic activity to justify their continued operation. Unlike the bulls and pollyannas, I am not fixated on the success or failure of individual systems. I have the capacity to see the larger picture and I am far more concerned with the total failure of Charlotte's Web itself -- that system-of-systems which forms the backbone of modern civilization.
I freely admit that many of my colleagues disagree with my conclusions and believe that Y2K will be nothing more than a "bump in the road". The problem is that, speaking as an expert, I have never seen any credible evidence to support their general position. Yes, they can point to individual successes, but this does not materially support their overall hypothesis of "no problem" and we ( the bears or "doombrood" ) can point to far more failures, far more known problems, and the abysmal record of our own industry in meeting deadlines and required functional capability. In addition, I must point out that the disaster scenario requires the failure of only a relatively small percentage of our systems ( let's say 20% ) while the "bump in the road" scenario requires virtually perfect correction of almost all affected systems, all on time and all on budget. For the bulls to be right, we must somehow magically move from a historical on-time project success rate of less than 15% to a success rate for Y2K projects of at least 90 - 95%.
Such a position is clearly irrational. However, for the sake of argument, let us go even further and assume that all affected systems will indeed be fixed before they start to fail. Unfortunately, this would not solve the problem or prevent the disaster. You see, after any major maintenence change to a system ( which Y2K most certainly is ) there is always a residual rate of failure as a result of the changes themselves, even when the changes are properly "tested". The failures manifest themselves when the system is placed back into the real world of "production", as opposed to the artificial world of "testing". They happen because maintenence programmers customarily test only the immediate effects of their changes. There is neither the time nor the money nor often even the ability to test the entire consequences of a particular change to a system. The residual failures typically arise elsewhere in the system, at some point unrelated to the change itself and completely unanticipated by the programmer.
This last is why residual failures are so hard to identify and correct. Often, we can't even tell for certain whether a particular failure really is the result of a recent system change or not. In turn, this is why a good system administrator would never return two or more systems to "production" at the same time. Not only is the risk of failure almost doubled, but there is also a small chance of both systems failing simultaneously. For Y2K, the problem is greatly compounded by the fact that, essentially, we will be placing all of our corrected systems back into "production" at roughly the same time. We can even calculate the magnitude of the residual failures, to a first approximation.
The actual rate of residual failure depends on a number of factors, but mostly on the size of the system and the scope of the changes. Under average conditions, modest changes to a moderately sized system, the rate would be about 7%. The scope of Y2K changes is, of course, much more extensive than this and many of the systems are extremely large, so the residual failure rate is also likely to be higher. Nevertheless, for the sake of argument, let us again assume an overly optimistic residual failure rate of only 5% for Y2K related changes. But this is only for one system. For a business with multiple systems ( which they all have ) the chance of a system failure can be computed as:1- ( 1-f ) **n, where "f" is the failure rate and "n" is the number of systems.
An average small business would have perhaps 5 systems so, assuming a residual rate of 5%, they have about a 23% chance of at least one system failure ( 1- ( 1-.05 ) **5 = 0.226 ) . A medium size business would typically have about 25 systems and, therefore, a 72% chance of a failure ( 1- ( 1-.05 ) **25 = 0.723 ) . A large business with 100 or more systems would have a 99% chance of a failure ( 1- ( 1-.05 ) **100 = 0.994 ) . This is EVEN IF ALL OF THE SYSTEMS ARE FIXED! Of course, many of these failures will be relatively easy to fix, but others will require an effort beyond the capabilities of the business and they will not be fixed before the business itself fails ( this is particularly true for small and medium businesses using packaged software ) . In addition, the great majority of these failures will have at least some domino effect on related customers and vendors. To make it even worse, virtually everybody will be facing these problems at about the same time, leading to a chaos in which actually fixing the problems becomes almost impossible. At the very minimum this will lead to an economic disaster, JUST FROM THE ACT OF FIXING THE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES, without even taking into account the effect of the unfixed systems, of embedded systems or of an already declining global economy.
In reality, of course, the situation is much worse than this, and the residual failure rate will be much, much higher. Just how much worse is anybody's guess since we have, as yet, insufficient historical data of actual Y2K failures. One thing I can state, categorically, is that a "bump in the road" is not even on the scale of possibility. As we have seen above, the best case end of the scale really begins with a global economic disaster and even then assumes that all systems are fixed on time and that there are no outside factors such as a global recession. Clearly this, too, is an untenable position.
So, in a realistic best case, how much worse than an "economic disaster" is it going to get? Let's use the same formula but this time with a guesstimate of the rate of critical failures ( those likely to lead to a failure of the business itself ) . As an expert, I personally think that the overall, critical failure rate will be between 10 and 20% but, again, let's be overly optimistic and say that only 1% will fail critically and terminally for the business. Even this means that 5% of small, 22% of medium and 63% of big businesses will, inevitably, cease to exist as a direct result of Y2K system failures. Interestingly, these numbers accurately reflect our intuitive grasp of the increasing dependance on information technology as businesses grow larger. But the exact numbers don't really matter because this is only the first level of failure.
The second stage of failure is the "domino effect", the interrelationships between vendors and their customers. Roughly speaking, each of the big three auto manufacturers has about 50,000 vendors of whom about 10,000 are "critical" to production. On the basis of the above, at only a 1% critical failure rate, at least 500 of the critical vendors ( 5% ) will go out of business, forcing the production line to a halt. If that happens for any extended period of time then most of the other 49,500 vendors are basically out of business. Not that it matters. On the basis of the above, two of the big three ( 63% ) will themselves go out of business because of their own Y2K failures, taking most of their vendors with them. Not that it really matters. 50% of the big three's customers are employed by small businesses, of which 5% will immediately go out of business. Unfortunately, the other 50% of their customers are employed by medium and large businesses of whom, optimistically, ( 63-22 ) /2+22 or 42% will also go out of business, removing their former employees from the auto market. Those who still have jobs will also be much less likely to buy and, with this immediate and increasing drop in sales, all of the big three will effectively go out of business -- together with most of their vendors. The same thing will happen in every other segment of the economy as well.
Even with unrealistically optimistic numbers, and without taking either embedded systems or the already poor global economy into account, I think this proves beyond any reasonable doubt that Charlotte's Web will indeed completely collapse, just as I predicted in the previous article. Unfortunately, that is still only the second level of failure.
The third level of failure is something I call a devolutionary spiral -- the unwinding of everything we have built over the last 2,000 years of civilization. It is a continuing, self perpetuating, reduction in global population, economic activity and technical capability. It has many of the characteristics of a deflationary spiral in economics; of the entropy of a closed thermodynamic system; and of the sudden jump to a lower energy level which we see in the decay of many nuclear-physical systems. Historically, it is much like the fall of the Roman Empire, which collapsed under it's own weight far more than from outside factors, and from which "recovery" took over 1,000 years. I don't yet know how to measure the spiral, scientifically, but I do know how to describe it.
The key is something called "carrying capacity", a term from the biological sciences. It defines the maximum population of a given species which a particular habitat can support under a specified set of circumstances. If the maximum population is exceeded, or if the capacity itself is reduced, the inevitable result is always a reduction in the population to a level far lower than the simple difference in population numbers would suggest. As an example, consider the plight of the beautiful Mule Deer of the Kaibab Plateau, close to my home in Northern Arizona. Several years ago, the greenie meanies manipulated a ban on the hunting of Mule Deer in this area. Until then, hunting had been used to control the deer population, with the permitted "harvest" designed to reduce the total number of deer, swollen by springtime breeding and summer plenty, to the maximum number which could be supported through harsher winter conditions. As a result, the year round population of deer was normally at it's theoretical maximum for that particular habitat.
Without hunting, the first snows found the herd 25% larger than the winter carrying capacity. At first, the poor deers just lost weight, competing with each other for a food supply far below that needed to support them all through the winter. As the winter progressed, however, the weaker deer ( does, fawns and the old ) quite naturally died -- by their pitiful thousands. But, worse than this, even the stronger, dominant males were weakened to the point that they, too, succumbed in higher numbers than usual. By the next spring, the Kaibab deer herd was reduced to less than 50% of the normal, springtime population and there were fewer new fawns. In the fall, there were less dominant males and less healthy does, to take care of building the new population. It took decades to recover to normal levels ( and then only with the resumption of controlled hunting ) .
I am personally sickened by the images of this event, by the triumph of "emotion" over "reason", but that is not the point I wish to make. The point I must make is that we, ourselves, are really not that different from the Kaibab deer herd. We live in a complex, computer dependent, world with a carrying capacity of about 6 billion souls. Take away some of the computer capacity, as little as 10%, and we lose a significant portion of the carrying capacity. Because of the domino effect, if we lose just 10% of our businesses ( and even the government expects more ) this could easily translate into a loss of one third of the carrying capacity and, thus, 2 billion dead.
But that's just the beginning of the devolutionary spiral. Unlike those Kaibab deer, we human beings are to a large extent responsible for creating our own carrying capacity. Without our complex society there is no way this earth could support or carry 6 billion people. But, conversely, without 6 billion people there is no way we could create such a complex society in the first place. When we lose a significant percentage of the population, which we certainly will, we will also lose an important part of our ability to maintain civilization itself. As a result, we will lose even more of the carrying capacity and even more of the population. Once the spiral starts it feeds on itself and it cannot be stopped by anything we do. It will stop, all by itself, but only when a new equilibrium is reached with a much lower carrying capacity and a much smaller population, with far less economic activity and more limited technology.
It doesn't matter whether you believe me. It doesn't even matter if I am right. Because you are not the only one reading this article. Through the magic of the internet there are thousands, perhaps millions, who are also reading and who do believe. There are millions of others who have found similar opinions elsewhere and who also firmly believe it's really coming, really soon, to a town near them. They believe it is serious enough that they have already decided to withdraw their money from their banks and mutual funds. When that happens en masse, some time next year, our entire economy will collapse. In a sense, the end has already begun and the spiral has already started to unwind.
There is nothing wrong with their decision, even though it will indeed trigger the very collapse they are trying to protect themselves against. The point is that Y2K is real, the global recession is real. Roosevelt was wrong. We really do have something more to fear than fear itself. It makes sense to prepare. It is sheer folly to ignore Y2K and those who do so will be numbered among the dead. The sensible question is not whether to prepare but how to prepare and for what. The remaining articles in this series will cover the how, for the moment I am concerned with the what. I have painted a pretty bleak picture of the total collapse of civilisation itself and the death of billions. Using highly optimistic numbers, I think I have shown that this is not just possible but probable. It makes the most sense to prepare for this worst case scenario. If you prepare for anything less, and I am right, you will not be prepared at all and you, too, will be numbered among the dead.
To drive this point home, I would like you to consider the closest historical precedent I can think of. The Roman Empire also collapsed in upon itself, in much the same way that I am predicting. As it collapsed, the carrying capacity of the empire was reduced and the population did indeed spiral downwards, reaching a low point several hundred years later around 1350. Most of their technology was also lost and their roads, aquaducts, cities and monuments soon fell into disrepair because none of the survivors understood the Roman technology. Even if they had, there weren't enough people nor enough economic activity to justify let alone institute the repairs. Consider this also. After a 1,000 years there were indeed survivors. They just weren't Romans.
Five miles from my boyhood home in England are the ruins of a Roman fort, built in the time of Hadrian to protect the estuary of the largest local river, and the center of trade and commerce in the area. Today it is little more than a few piles of rubble, but legend has it that every year, at midnight on Good Friday evening, the old town comes back to life for just one hour. As a boy I would sneak out and ride my bike to the old fort. More than one dark night I spent there, listening for and almost hearing the ancient sounds, looking for and almost seeing two thousand year old ghosts from a long dead civilization. I wonder what little boy will look for us, if we don't prepare.

Copyright ( C ) 1998,
This article is published as part of Cory Hamasaki's "DC Y2K Weather Report" and may be reproduced under the same terms and conditions. All other rights reserved to the author.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:31 - ID#219363)
Refinancing Boom Gets Another Boost
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The prospect is about as appealing as oral surgery, but now that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time in seven weeks, homeowners are again reviewing whether and how to refinance their mortgages.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:39 - ID#219363)
Take it with a grain of salt, but a rumor from one of my friends says that a potential credit crunch is still out there. Rumor has it that a number of retail shops for home equity loans and mortgages are pounding sand as they take on new customers but have more trouble finding buyers on the other end. The buzz says they might be headed for the tank. From the FWIW dept.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:45 - ID#39857)
gold output in decline for Oz can you feel
the tension? hands face my brother, Gutnick "Great Central Mines"
marches to Israel. peace bro.....

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:47 - ID#246299)
Pin the dollar on the donkeystormy Sunday meanderings.

When I started the 'currency thingy' I just wanted to watch the euro and gold. My first viewing priority was to arrange the currencies so that my view was from a different point on the circle. ( The currencies seem to be presented to us in a universal template; thus, we see at a glance what they would have us see at a glance. ) The best piece of advice I have ever received came from Donald, who told me, "Input the data yourself, no matter how tedious and boring you find it." Prophetic.

When the "power of one price" popped up, I was intrigued but not surprised. When the relationship between gold, platinum, silver and the currencies popped up, I was intrigued, surprised and MOTIVATED. This morning, something new came into view.

I established in the model a "Relationship Index" which tracks the currencies, their relationship one-to-the-other, and their individual relationships to the PMs, which are correlated to the actual PM-to-PM prices day-to-day. This morning, inputting data for the SDR from Jan 97 and Jan 98 something new "popped up". Stay with me here, it is "eyes glaze over" time {:- ) )

In January 1997, the difference between the XPT-XAU price in each currency, translated into dollars e.g., was $4.xx---which was true for the euro, the dollar, the yen and the yuan.
CNY Diff was $4.110
DEM Diff was $4.717
USD Diff was $4.500
Euro Diff was $4.690
Yen Diff was $4.821
SDR Diff was $60.000. WHOA! Now that will jog one awake quite quickly.

Particularly as the data for Jan 1998 was so very much more 'agreeable'.
Jan 98: CNY was $80.414; DEM, $80.395; USD, $80.400; XEU, $80.437; JPY, $80.399; SDR, $80.000
What caused the 'alignment'? The 'strong' dollar paradox.

Yesterday, I posted some JPY currencies-here they are again. Let's walk the circle through the fiat forest.
XEU:JPY-- 143.429
SDR:JPY-- 166.940 [XAU:SDR:JPY-- 148.3547]
USD:JPY-- 121.550
Now, in addition to being of interest as a snapshot four-tier [minimum] currency standard, let's just look at 'them' as units with which we can buy 'stuff'. If we shop with SDR we can get more 'stuff' than we can if we shop with XEU, but we get more 'stuff' with either the SDR or the XEU than we do with the USD. The dollar is NOT a good unit with which to get 'stuff'. The dollar is SUPREMO when it comes to paying bills however. Devise some way to purchase in SDR, JPY, XEU and pay in USD. Now don't you suspect that the Princes of Davos have done exactly that?

The one universal currency that has maintained its ability to cut a swath through the fiat forest is gold, as obscured as that is in the dim light under the trees.

( Incidentally, the XPT-XAU delta has been "devalued" too; running in the middle nineties in August 98, down to the mid-fifties in November 98. )

And yes, the SDR performs the 3P Pavane too. Here is the Platinum Set:
Price of Platinum in SDR = Price of Platinum in XEU
11/24/98 XPT:SDR = 255.890
11/24/98 XPT:XEU = 306.424
SDR 3P Platinum = 306.04444

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:50 - ID#219363)
Question about the battery banks if you have a moment to answer. I've got a potential application that would require very low power and would have to be outdoors. Any battery system tied to solar should do the trick as far as the power requirements go ( probably overkill even ) . My question is: Are there any battery related devices that you can use to keep the battery warm if it's exposed to the elements ( just cold, it'll be in a weatherproof box ) ? I mean, a small box or "electric blankey" that you can wrap it up in. Reason I ask is that one of the web site references said that if the battery gets too cold it can't store as much charge. I don't know, maybe the loss of charge because of cold is better than the loss of charge used to keep it warm. : ) I would worry about the battery though if the temperature dropped too far below freezing, should I ? Or will it be okay ?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 15:54 - ID#317193)
Thank you...thank you...
Sheller...once again your kindness is appreciated. You are as a fine wine...better with age.: )

Tol#1..tanks man...gulp..puff..and all the rest.

sharefin...I really can spell your moniker...sorry.

NO golf...wife says father/son bonding doing X-mas lights...never mind!!!


Greenstone Gold
(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:00 - ID#428218)

Gold's output on the decline


After more than 18 years of strong production growth, the $4.6billion Australian gold sector looks to be in decline.


More irresponsible headlines........

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:09 - ID#219363)
SKorea Posts $2.75B Account Surplus
SEOUL, South Korea ( AP ) -- Sharply falling imports helped South Korea post a $2.75 billion current account surplus in October, the central Bank of Korea said in a preliminary report Sunday. October's gain pushed the nation's combined current account surplus for the first ten months of this year to $34.11 billion, compared with a $12.62 billion deficit in the same period last year. October's surplus was the nation's 12th consecutive monthly gain. It compared with a $488 million deficit during the same month last year. Exports fell 11.4 percent to $10.79 billion in October but imports plunged nearly 40 percent to $7.34 billion. Imports have dropped sharply in recent months as businesses slashed capital investment and consumers spent less amid the country's economic crisis.
Brazil would love to devalue, and why not ?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:12 - ID#317193)
SDRer...and the bottom line is....
Otherwise put...your conclusion from this time consuming work is that ...?

Does it even matter what the "price" of the PM's are? High or low the fiat paper all adjusts until the paper implodes upon defaults and debt destruction.

Your efforts are appreciated. BTW...pic's were still ) I'm green...looks just like me.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:12 - ID#190411)
There are so many good postings that I would like to copy.
There is a way to do it, I am sure, but I am ignorant.
I will be off for a trip to Arizona, and I'd like to peruse some stuff, such as SDR'ers latest.
SDRer, do you have the time to compile your posts such as sharefin did for ANOTHER and mozel?
BTW, where is mozel?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:13 - ID#227238)
Batteries will lose capacity as temp drops. For a low power application I wouldn't worry about. As long as the battery is not totally discharged it won't freeze. At least in any temps I have ever seen. A well insulated enclosure will help a lot. Beyond that, it ain't worth effort, IMO.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:14 - ID#42999)
Envy-- Thank you.
Thanks very much for your wireless ethernet info. Checked out their website, and it does look interesting. I'll discuss this with my ISP tomorrow and will let you know if anything comes of this.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:14 - ID#365216)
Why is it so hard to convince. . .
family, friends, and associates that emergency preparation, Y2K or
not, is the prudent thing to do? I must admit that even I am not
doing all that I should, that is looking for a nice and secluded plot
of land to build and live on, but at least I am doing the easy stuff
like converting electronic assets into metals, guns,ammo, cash, and
HAPPENS and can easily be sold ( most likely at more than what you paid
for them ) , stored indefinitely, traded, or consumed.

Only God knows for sure whats going to happen and we have to be ready
at all times for His second coming on Judgement Day, which may or may
not be an aftermath of Y2K or other disaster prophesies.

That is all.

Happy Holidays

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:31 - ID#219363)
@Gusto, Earl
Best of luck to you Gusto, I hope they go for it. ISP's, especially mom and pop shops are usually pretty open to ideas like that, at least that's been my experience. If it wasn't obvious, I'm going to try one of the remote installations, that's why I was asking Earl about the batteries. I figure it'll probably add about 1K$US to the installation for the box, the battery and the solar cell. I'll have to match the battery, the solar cell and the device's voltage requirements, but that shouldn't be a problem. Look forward to hearing how it goes for you.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:34 - ID#20359)
TYoung, Namaste' gulp and a puff, respectfully welcome...
SHEK, Namaste' gulp and a puff...I have read and re-read the article...I think there are many valid points...the easiest thing to do would be to challenge you as well as the thoughts contained within the article...I seek neither of the know...for the argument of it...I'm right you and the writer are wrong kinda thing...

There is much to what is stated but there are also many factors not included...there is no question that if global economies cannot interact and computers keep clicking off...100s of millions of people will be at risk...

I go back to my earlier post in the day...given the possibilties only an idiot would not prepare...I cannot and will not gauge the degree to which the devastation might progress...I am simply not qualified...

But believe me my friend...I am one who leans much further to the chaos...devastation side of the equation than the vast majority of people...

I prefer to prepare with my neighbors as best I can and what will happen will...happen...God Bless you and yours and I hope everyone is laughing at us when the clock ticks 2000...not much in this life could or would make me happier...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:36 - ID#35757)
fails to consider one thing - Martial Law. The point of a gun renders economic considerations acedemic.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:39 - ID#376309)
I'm not sure how we got on to batteries here, but batteries DO NOT loose there charge due to cold weather. Infact I store my small batteries in the freezer to last longer, because batteries loose more of there charge in hot weather. The chemical process which takes place to generate electricity slows down substancially as the temperature drops and the flow of electricity also slows accordingly. If you need to use a battery to it's fullest capacity during cold weather you may need to warm the battery up to increase the chemical process but a battery with a full charge which is froozen and does not seem to have much of a charge left will be able to give you full power once it is warmed up to room temperature again. If you have a couple 'C' or 'D' batteries froozen and you need them immediately for a flash-light simply place them in the palm of your hand and hold them tight for 1 minute and they will be at full straight.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:41 - ID#20359)
morbius, Namaste' gulp and a puff...martial law would be a meaningless term if the
thoughts of InfoMagic come to be...modern armies would fit the example far better than the Mule Deer in terms of "carrying capacity." In addition who is going to give the orders and how will they 48 hours armies around the globe would crumble...and aside from the robot/people? the soldiers would wish to be with their families rather than kill for the protection of a system which no longer exists...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:43 - ID#246299)
TYoung--"Does it even matter what the "price" of the PM's are..."
Exactly RIGHT! That is all in the fallow field of "Pricing";
we are Vaulers, yes? And green is a great 'n good color; besides which, therein resides the golden eagle. Have fun gettin lit! {:- ) )

Mo in To
(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:48 - ID#347205)
To All,
Is anyone familiar with this one ( Queenstake ) it trades on TSE and has a runup as of late to the 84 cents range. ( ps. I am not plugging this ) I have been thinking of buying some, but thought I'd check with you knowledgeable folks to see if you have any opinions on this company. They are drilling on two properties right now and pals of mine say it will go up Monday? Any opinions?
ps. what's this about wireless ethernet, can anyone give me the website address?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:50 - ID#219363)
Layoffs Accelerating in U.S.
John Lee nurses a draft beer and toys with a crumpled pack of cigarettes as he sits in Mutual Tap, a Peoria, Ill., saloon nestled among small shops and factories that shape iron, manufacture ball bearings and weld pipes. It's shortly after noon, a time when Lee normally does part-time contract work in one of those factories, which supply the bigger names in the Illinois town: Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu Ltd. But that was before economic turmoil struck Southeast Asia and spread into Russia and Latin America. It has rippled over to U.S. manufacturers, including the semiconductor, electronics and oil businesses, and is affecting the small factories that supply those fields. There's less work to be done, less need for full-time workers and even fewer opportunities for part-timers like Lee. Now, he's sitting on a bar stool, nursing a beer.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:53 - ID#411440)
Thanks to the group for providing insight on JUNK SILVER.
Particularly tolerant1, Silverbaron, and Mooney. I shall try to
share what I learned from Bart ( Thanks again ) and a local coin dealer
here in Toronto.

It is still illegal to destroy or deface any coin or currency of
the relm. From what Silverbaron sent me, I suspect strongly that it
is illegal to melt US silver coins in the United States. During
the 1980-82 silver bull, truckloads of US coin passed truckloads of
Canadian coin on the border ( both going in opposite directions )
It is not illegal to melt US coin in Canada and visa versa. I wonder
which country melted more or each other's silver coinage? Mooney
asked the question "why bother melting it?" Good question. Coins
have a recognized silver content, and require no extra costs in assaying
or refining. They are in a form which is most convenient for their
primary purpose: legal tender as pm. If Y2K causes a flat currency
and banking system meltdown, then the coins are just the form of money
that everyone will be seeking to use. Their price should skyrocket.
If the problem is stagflation and the short overhang induced POS spike,
then coins will likely skyrocket against flat currencies that still
have value, and caravans of coin trucks will be crossing the US-Canada
border again in order to melt coin for industrial demand. FWIW.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:57 - ID#246299)
TYoung, re: "Otherwise put...your conclusion from this time consuming work is that ...?
That summary is a-coming. But, it does occur to one that if ONE computer in this awesome link goes down, or suffers ANY kind of 'problem', the financial world implodes. Their 'alignment' strategy has worked well,
but it is VERY technologically dependent and information fragile. And NO ONE is going to discuss this aspect of the financial system because "one doesn't discuss some things"... Imagine waking up one morning and nothing has a PRICE?
Except gold. Which "is"...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 16:58 - ID#227238)
Seems we have a problem with semantics more than anything else. If Envy's storage battery must operate in the cold and he refuses to place it in his armpit to warm it up; it will have less than rated capacity and will, for all the world, look like it has lost some of its charge.

Should he warm it to room temperature, it would be good as new.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:02 - ID#20359)
Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I think it was Donald/JTF...not sure...but he and I
were discussing ( about a year or so ago ) how unemployment would be the tell-all of the economic hardships that would befall the USA...and these numbers are accelerating at a frightening pace ( in addition I contend that that bastard Clintler and the rest in the District of Columbia have been manufacturing the employment figures for some time now ) ...its kind of tough to tell the 30 or so million people that need some form of food assistance in the USA that they should stop loafing and go out and get a job when there are not any to be had...

Yup...the social planners/politicians have truly served the people...up on a platter and for dessert...the family gets to watch the bread winners puke on their dignity...what mess...what a heart goes out to those truly does...

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:04 - ID#209265)
Rhody- concerning Greenspan,
you said:

"I think some people have been a little hard on Alan Greenspoon of late.
Perhaps the reason he has been adding liquidity, and inflating the
bubble is to provide the time and funding for Y2K compliancy.
After all, if we crash now, firms with little money and no prospects
are unlikely to fix their systems."

I think Alan Greenspan knows something the general public doesn't. Remember the first rate drop occurred in response to the developing LTC fiasco. People haven't been able to find a rational explanation for the subsequent drops- and this makes me suspect there are things going on in the background that have the Fed running scared. It's too soon to be trying to inflate for Y2k problems. I suspect there are derivatives disasters developing or banking disasters ( possibly some numbers were coming down the pipe indicating a serious credit crunch developing. )

Us peopns will be the last ones to find out, unless some Kitcoite can give us an inside edge . . .

- Steve

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:08 - ID#219363)
@Earl, Glenn (and post about layoffs)
Batteries: I just checked, it looks like I only need 1200mA at 5VDC. I don't think that's much and I'm going to be checking into the batteries and the solar cells as soon as I find Sharefin's alternative energy link, I seemed to have misplaced it. I'll just overkill it and make sure. The little box I'm going to be powering generates some heat too, so hopefully in a well insulated enclosure it'll keep the battery at least a little bit warm ( device is about as warm as a running laptop computer ) . About the device's power in case anyone wants to comment, I want to make sure it'll just always run, so maybe a battery that'll last a week without the solar panel charging it.


Comment about previous post on layoff increase. This is classic deflation, is it not ? How is a FED easing going to help this situation ? Answer: It isn't. FROM POST: The strong dollar against major foreign currencies has led to a flood of cheap imports -- accounting for nearly four-fifths of the trade imbalance, according to Bank One's Mount. That has led to steel piling up at docks and in warehouses. "The problem is, when you have dumping, the general populations sees it as cheaper products, cheaper materials and, by and large, that's good," said Mike Venie, vice president of sales and marketing at Northwestern Steel and Wire Co. in Sterling, Ill. "While it may result in cheaper materials and products to the U.S. consumer, it does more damage to our economy than it does help with those lower prices."

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:10 - ID#287279)

I posted InfoMagics article not because I agree with everything he says, but BECAUSE he provides strong reasoning as to why most govs and companies cannot possibly be ready on time. From there he and I disagree. His theory is as valid as anybodys because nobody knows what will happen.
He does provide a strong argument as to why it will be impossible for most entities to be ready, and that by itself will cause a very serious depression.

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:18 - ID#209265)
Rhody - silver coins
Each time there's a silver bull, more old silver coins get melted. Supply shrinks with each decade, but demand will be the same. This indicates to me that silver coins, both junk and collector-grade, should shoot up in value more during each silver boom. What think ye?

Some of the guys here were talking about minting some small-value gold coins ( or plastic-laminated wafers ) but it seems to me that there might be more room for a business minting silver coins- and they could be pure silver rather than the alloyed mixtures minted by the gov'ts in days of old. The pre-60's coins were designed for use in general circulation as pocket change, and had to be hardened up if they were to survive being ground together in peoples' pockets, but with a new recognition of the vale of PM coins, people would probably treat pure silver coins with respect, and they could circulate without getting too beat up . . .

Opinions anyone?

- Steve

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:24 - ID#219363)
It is sad isn't it. It's likely to get worse too unless something drastic changes in the Asian markets. Kitco has been calling it right since the beginning. Here's another quote from the article:

"So far this year, we've experienced about $120 billion worth of trade deterioration, which is the bloodiest trade losses in history," said Bank One economist Greg Mount. "There is no doubt that the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to be hurt by what's going on abroad." Nationally, 30 percent of total U.S. exports go to Asia, including 40 percent of farm exports. As those exports slow to a trickle, layoffs have accelerated, companies have cut overtime and extra shifts, and some are tightening travel budgets and looking for other expenses to cut."

We just know that the US can't let Brazil devalue, because if they do that to get rid of their account deficit, it'll destroy the US export market worse than it's already been destroyed. FORTY PERCENT drop in farm exports. I mean, come on, that's HUGE! The FED ease is of no consequence as it only spurs on domestic demand which will eventually tank because of decreased foreign demand. The FED is just buying time, and it's expensive. Nothing to be done about it, even a lower dollar won't help. A lower dollar would help our trade imbalance, but who cares if we cut down on imports and show a surplus in the face of further declining exports ? That's what happened to S. Korea, check it out. S. Korea seems to be proud of this, but I don't see it. Deflation sucks.

"Exports fell 11.4 percent to $10.79 billion in October but imports plunged nearly 40 percent to $7.34 billion. Imports have dropped sharply in recent months as businesses slashed capital investment and consumers spent less amid the country's economic crisis."

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:27 - ID#20359)
Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff...give it time to load...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:29 - ID#20359)
SHEK, Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
I agree with both of ya...yup...uh huh...bbl...

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:33 - ID#29048)
Steve in TO
There is no need to mint silver coins. Bullion Maples and Eagles ( silver ) are pure metal. The Mexican Libertad is .999 and is one of the least expensive silver coins.

CDN reports "the overall trend is very strong for rare date Morgan and Peace Dollars. Dealers continue to tell us that there is a great demand for scarce date Dollars in all Mint State grades."

There are more than 1600 lots for auction at EBAY today. The better coins are going at or above greysheet valuation.

Greenstone Gold
(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:38 - ID#428218)
My, my, my.......what a surprise.............

The Hatt
(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:44 - ID#294232)
Too hard on greenspan give me a break!
This political puppet will go down in history as the cause of the next global depression and his sidekick Rubin is going with him. IMHO both these men would quit tommorow if they could, however the Clintonites will not let that happen. To add insult to injury a full 67% of Americans are giving Clinton the thumbs up for the job he is doing on the economy. Wait till these fast asleep human beings feel the pain attached to the greatest ever transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich! They are even going for the 401k plans this time, wake up America they want it all and will not be happy until they have it! Oh by the way the U.S. have refused to answer the call of SHOW US THE GOLD..... That because there is not any gold left.......

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:48 - ID#237299)
SDRer: a question
I have been following your "convergence" posts with some interest over the last months, and it strikes me that the logic may be circular. You point to this uncanny convergence of prices between Sdr/Yen/Dollar/Gold/Mark/EU, and now platinum.

It seems that these prices will inherently *always* converge- since the SDR is comprised of a weighted basket of the Yen, Mark, Dollar, Pound and Franc. ( 1995 figures ) Furthermore, the dollar exchange rate of the SDR is calculated daily by taking the exchange rates of the respective currencies and multiplied by their dollar/weight equivalents- then the reciprocal is the SDR value for the day.

So.....You have a value of the SDR- *a dollar value*- which is made up *primarily of the dollar*, ( since it is the heaviest weight in the basket ) , and further comprised of remarkably stable currencies *all valued in relationship to the dollar*. Then you take the *dollar* price of gold and "reconvert" it back into relationship between a host currency and it's relationship to the SDR.

As far as I can see- all this does is travel in a circle- and you will find this *convergence* of price practically all the time. As to why platinum came so out of wack during one period?- who knows- data error? It makes no difference, as far as I can tell, if one looks at the value of metal in the foreign currency- since to arrive at it- one must *use the dollar value of gold*- and convert it to the foreign "stable" currency- using dollar/foreign currency exchange rates.

I know you have been *deeply* immersed in the labyrinthine maze of the SDR/Gold thing for quite some time- and so, you probably have a considerably advanced grasp of the whole puzzle- much more than I do- but would you comment where I have misunderstood this?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 17:57 - ID#246299)
Erle--re: yr 16:12 Actually, I don't keep my posts, as such--
if you can tell me in what you are specifically interested, I can bundle together some info? In my Don Quixote guise, I haven't been
exactly focused. {:- )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 18:11 - ID#317193)
Haggis...debt default causing problems....
What a surprise...who will save the world when the next crisis appears...the USA was the last player and uncle Al shot all his bullets. Who saves the world time.... ( ) .

Good mining to you.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 18:18 - ID#228136)
Mo- I've made some money on queenstake. The trick is not to hold it too long as they never seem to find anything. They have great promoters though.

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 29 1998 18:24 - ID#287367)
nifty Christmas gift- gold, frankincense, & myrrh
( coin is only gold-plated, but you can always throw in a REAL gold coin of your choosing )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 18:25 - ID#411440)
@ Steve in TO: Yes, I agree there must indeed be forces at
work behind the scenes of which we mere mortals are unaware.
My guess is the derivatives mess. I suspect that the derivative
exposure is under control, as long as the DOW et al is going up,
and along with it the USD, but in the opposite direction, the
derivative exposure unwinds very quickly. If Greemspan lowers
interest rates yet again this month, in the teeth of the bubble,
eyebrows already raised, will be tickling hairlines. If he
lowers again, I will be buying gold and gold shares with a vengence.

As far as each silver bull causing a reduction in supply of coin, and
each subsequent bull generating an even higher spike in coin prices,
that remains to be seen. If this is true, why did silver in 1997
reach prices equal to the price in 1965? In 1965, silver was $3.50
per oz and a cup of coffee was a dime. So one oz of silver bought
35 cups of coffee. Now silver is about 5 bucks and it buys 5 cups of
coffee. Silver is 7X cheaper now than then, and yet there is less of
it in the world, and we use more of it each year than at any time in
the history of this planet. This reeks of manipulation and the law
of supply and demand must surely be repealed back to mere hypothesis.

I suspect strongly that the topic of my first paragraph is related
to the topic of my second paragraph. The financialization of our
economy has converted so much that was real to paper, that the
entire system is perverted. People equate paper with reality and
then print as much as the market will absorb and then some.
How many gold certificates have been written on a single bullion bar?
How can the same oz of gold be sitting in a CB vault in the form of
a leasing contract, yet be hanging around some ladies neck? If you
can sell the same commodity several times, at the same time, and yet
still have it ( in paper ) supply is magnified, and prices debased.
I think this is what Alan Greenspoon sees. He has already said it
can't be fixed. In public.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 18:29 - ID#201145)
morbius (InfoMagic) Martial Law
morbius wrote:

infomagic fails to consider one thing - Martial Law. The point of a gun renders economic considerations acedemic

From infomagics extreem perspective, there is good reason to dismiss this.

If things are anywhere near as bad as Infomagic thinks, then governments would be unable to institue martial law after y2k. Their comand control and intelligence ifrastructure would be inoperable.

Sure guns would still work, but without current orders, operating on general standing orders, a military unit cut off from supply and communication would swiftly become nothing more than a highly disciplined trained armed mob. In the US, Canada, UK, I suppose there is at least the hope that these units will act to help and protect their countrymen from looters and such. But even here, there is the possiblity that your local infantry battalion may simple become the biggest looters on the block.

No, if martial law then it must be before y2k, before the disruptions.

That US Sen. Bennet? apparently he is on some committe... and it looks like the Dept. of Defense, will be unable to carry out operations at the current rate of remediation, I got the impression they were not talking about fighting two wars, but keeping civil order.

I have found a mailing list dealing with preparing to survive y2k, there are people who discuss all the y2k things I have seen on kitco.


To unsubscribe from Y2KPrep, please send a message with "unsubscribe" in the

body ( not subject ) to For other

mailing list commands, send a message with "help" in it to the same address.

there is alot of good prep info there.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:05 - ID#246299)
Obsidian-One would not argue that you have 'misunderstood' anything at all.

You have accepted, as did I, the logic of the circle, which is compelling and convincing when viewed from the outer rim. It is only when one pierces the circle, views its dynamics from within, that anomalies float into sight and congeal into a contrary island on which one can stand.

( 1 ) "You have a value of the SDR- *a dollar value*- which is made up *primarily of the dollar"-
COMMENT: And which dollar are you going to use in your calculations? the 00.70 dollar? or the 1.00? it makes a difference? and which are they talking about?

For instance, as the currencies values are assigned BY THE ISSUING CENTRAL BANKS, one has to focus on this sort of thing:
"Note: These representative exchange rates, which are reported to the Fund by the issuing central bank, are expressed in terms of currency
units per U.S. dollar, except for those indicated by ( 1 ) which are in terms of U.S. dollars per currency unit [COMMENT-which is a VERY different thing ] and those indicated by ( 2 ) which are expressed in terms of currency units per SDR." Prepared by Financial Relations Division

( 2 ) "remarkably stable currencies *all valued in relationship to the dollar" When they come to the basket they are not valued against the dollar. They are monetary units of sovereign nations. The basket begins to value them one against the other. And although the announced weighting of the dollar in the basket in the heaviest of the five, if you read the fine print you will see they have several avenues of 'adjustment' to utilize every time they pull the SDR off linewhich they do frequently.

( 3 ) Unannounced, but functioning in the basket, is the yuan/renminbi. Why? Because the basket is to be reconfigured in 2000. And China makes baskets. The euro is also NOT a dollar priced, tied to dollar, entrant. That comes from the EMI and now the ECB. So there are benchmarks.

( 4 ) When tied to the linear, one can accept most of the prevailing "dollar price arbiter" argument. However, when one begins to do the calculations using the currency values as issued by the central banks, and using not a gold price but a MEASURE OF GOLD, a MEASURE OF PLATINUM, and a MEASURE OF SILVER one comes to a more organic spot on the yellow brick road.

( 5 ) Perhaps in trying to make a maze more navigable, one has simply added to the flotsam! There must be a way and hopefully I'll find it. Good, thoughtful question though. My thanks. {:- )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:10 - ID#227238)
I would appreciate it if someone would be so kind as to put up Sharefin's web site URL. I'm still recovering from a hard disk failure a week or so ago and my backup file doesn't include it. TIA.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:13 - ID#286234)

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:14 - ID#370218)

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:15 - ID#227238)
A tip 'o the fedora. Thanks.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:24 - ID#201145)
SDRer: your studies
I am starting to think that what you are posting is important. But I can't understand it. I don't have the background. I realize you may be at a point where you can't draw conclusions from your studies other than there is something there, you just don't know what, but I read each of your posts trying to "see" what you are seeing and I can't because of the limits of my knowledge.

I accept that you are serious in your research, and I accept that you are holding your data up to peer review here on kitco. I have yet to see a damning review of what you post, so I can only conclude that what you post is either accurate or poorly understood by everyone.

If you can possibly state a preliminary conclusion as the what you are talking about, I would give it some credence.

If not could someone point me to some url's or texts likely to be in a public library where I can learn to understand what he is posting.

My knowledge is very limited, I know special drawing rights = sdr and this has something to do with a system used to stablize world currencies, and thats about the limit of what I know.

I can learn fast, but I need to know where to start, is this IMF stuff? Bretton Woods agreements?, where should I begin to read?

I sense pearls slipping through my fingers.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:33 - ID#343259)
@Envy re outdoor battery application
One thing you might consider is to place the batteries in a buried 55 gallon drum. Look into Gel Cells as they are 1 ) Cheaper 2 ) Can be drawn down more 3 ) Don't suffer "memory" problems. Use dessicant bags to keep moisture down. Outfit with a "Service" entrance. If some amount of your application needs to be above ground, you can install a metal pipe rising out of the battery barrel. It would serve as conduit for the power, keeping it away from those who travel on the ground. Battery will be warmer, buried, and you can apply effective insulation to the top of the barrel, to barrier upward radiation losses. Some problems with remote outdoor battery installation is theft, vandalism, and safety issues with either AC or DC power, or RF if you have a radio application. FWIW.

--.- .-. --.. ..--..

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:37 - ID#34883)
Par 4, 400 yards, drive & 6 iron ( plays long ) . Yes sir. 1st ever. Go Gold.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:40 - ID#275194)
RIGHT ON MOLE!!!!! Thats Great!
Played today myself I don't mind saying. No eagles, but I did have a good back nine.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:42 - ID#50149)
Envy @ 15:50, Regarding batteries....
If the battery in question is a 'lead-acid' type ( such as a marine deep cycle type ) , the electrolyte ( acid ) in a fully charged battery has a higher specific gravity or acid concentration. This is why, before the advent of 'no maintenance' batteries, you could check the condition of a battery with a device that sucked up some battery acid and told you the S.G. of the acid and thus the battery condition.

As to the battery needing to be warmed... Yes and no. A charged battery will freeze at very low temperatures. A discharged battery will freeze at much higher temperatures. This isn't a chemistry page, so... :- ) )

A useful link is

At lower temperatures, you will get lower amp-hour capacity because most things slow down with decreasing temperatures, including chemical reaction rates.

Here are some interesting links... They ARE worth a read.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:43 - ID#252150)
Greenstone@Banking failures--that was last month. Have'nt you heard? Uncle
Al waved his wand & all the problems disappeared.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:43 - ID#246299)
Aldebaran, My apologies for lack of clarity...
but attempting to clarify brings its own problems too! Here is a good spot to visit, read awhile and soak-up some info.
Admire your determination to learn. ( And eagerly await your post explaining it all to us! ) {:- )

Financial Organization and Operations of the IMF
Appendix 1: Financial Terms

This appendix provides a glossary of basic operational and financial terms as used in the IMF.
Accounting Unit

The Fund's unit of account is the SDR ( see entry below ) .

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:45 - ID#72316)

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:45 - ID#370218)
Comex Dec. contract...FND is 11/ will ...
Dump a dollar or two or rise $10....I say dump. One of these days FND will bring a market NAB instead of ASB.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:46 - ID#237299)
SDRer: thanks for responding- I will think on that
You wrote:

( 4 ) When tied to the linear, one can accept most of the prevailing "dollar price arbiter" argument. However, when one begins to do the calculations using the currency values as issued by the central banks, and using not a gold price but a MEASURE OF GOLD, a MEASURE OF PLATINUM, and a MEASURE OF SILVER one comes to a more organic spot on the yellow brick road.

I'm not sure how you do the above, without first referring to it's dollar value- but, at least in the short term, your earlier hint about tilting at windmills is unfortunately true; none of us will know the *true* value of gold- until a Euro comes into maturity that is not held in thrall of the dollar- for only then, with two currencies, ( perhaps in competition with each other *for* gold ) will it's value be known.

We wait and watch.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:50 - ID#275194)
Peter DeSario's comments on Gold, Silver, bonds and the Stock market.
Remember what I posted last week about this move up from the lows as an a-b-c-x-a-b-c.

Peter DeSario's

Wave ( s ) of the Future ( s )

A daily Elliott Wave based look at the technical condition of the major futures markets

Update for Monday, November 30, 1998.

If you have been foolish in exalting yourself or if you have plotted evil, put your hand on your mouth. Prov. 30:32

( Support and resistance prices are based upon several methodologies. The degree to which they hold or give way is an indication of
a market's strength or weakness on any given day. The "goal" is for these prices, often the second one, to represent the days high
and/or low. As a rule, support once violated becomes resistance and vice versa. )

[December S&P]: ( close 119420, +810 ) ( cash S&P: 1192.29, +5.42 )

Support: 119100, 118600, 118150, 117600, 117250, 116750, 116150, 115850, 115580, 115000, 114750,
114150, 113500, 113100, 112900, 112550.

Resistance: 119190, 119500, 119750, 120030, 120680, 120840, 121200, 121580, 122900.

Outlook: Prices probably will see a bit more choppy trade to the upside before beginning at least a substantial
( and perhaps a total ) retracement of the rally that began at the 92900 low of October 8.

Analysis: The overall technical situation remains bearish, displaying conditions for which there is little precedent
for additional significant price strength, though for which there is considerable precedent for a serious price decline.
Wave-wise, prices have rallied in "corrective" fashion, tracing out a 7-wave double zigzag ( counted a-b-c-x-a-b-c )
from the October 8 low for either a leg of a large diagonal triangle fifth wave or wave b of a flat or contracting
triangle, any of which could be followed by a large decline. Prices traced out a five-wave decline from the Tuesday
afternoon high to Wednesday's low on the intraday charts which appears to have been wave c to complete a 3-3-5
flat corrective movement for the fourth wave of the final wave c. A fifth wave from Wednesdays 118240 low then,
should complete wave c from 113280, an a-b-c from 106550, and a double zigzag from the 92900 low of October 8,
after which nearly anything would be possible on the downside. Given the clearly corrective nature of the alleged
fifth wave advance underway from 118240, it looks like it's going to be a diagonal triangle ( or "rising wedge" )
pattern that has at most completed its first wave at Fridays 119620 high. That would call for a ( second wave )
pullback from there ( or a bit higher early Monday ) that could retrace half or so of the rally from 118240, another
rally to a new high of the move in a third wave, a decline carrying at least below the first wave peak, and then one
more high, suggesting that it could be Tuesday or Wednesday before a final peak is registered. ( Some additional
reference points to keep an eye on are possible upside targets at 9455-9515 in the Dow and 596.40-597.50 in the
OEX. ) Because of the relative shallowness of a fourth wave ending at Wednesdays low, an alternative possibility
to the above scenario is that the decline to Wednesdays 118240 low is just wave a of a larger expanded flat fourth
wave, making the rally from there a possible wave b ( that would likely not much exceed 120000 ) that could be
followed a decline on the order of 21 points or so in a wave c to complete that fourth wave from which one more
rally in a fifth wave ( likely to just a nominal new high of the move ) would then complete the double zigzag from the
October 8 low.

[March Treasury Bonds]: ( close 12812, +11 )

Support: 12805, 12730, 12722, 12707, 12629, 12620, 12600.

Resistance: 12817, 12913, 12926, 13007, 13022, 13030.

Outlook: The 13508 nearby contract peak of October 5 is one that could last for years. However, it looks like
March prices will exceed the 13022 peak of October 16 before they resume their larger decline.

Analysis: On the continuation charts, the entire advance from the all-time low made in 1981 can be counted as a
completed triple zigzag that will be followed by a long term decline in bond prices. On the daily March chart,
following an initial decline from 13426 to the 12600 low of October 13, prices traced out a corrective rally to the
13022 high of October 16 that appears to be just wave a of a larger ( expanded flat ) corrective movement, with the
decline from 13022 to 12421 on November 6 wave b, making the rally from 12421 a wave c that will carry prices
above 13106 to complete a second wave from the 12600 low of October 13 before the next major downleg
materializes. It appears that that wave c from 12421 is taking the form of a diagonal triangle within which the rally
to 12815 is the first wave and the decline from there a second wave to this weeks 12628 low ( from which a third of
the diagonal would likely reach at least 12923 ) .

[February Gold]: ( close 2991 ) ( Closed Friday )

Support: 2989, 2980, 2960, 2918, 2907, 2890, 2879, 2843.

Resistance: 2994, 3003, 3013, 3028, 3041, 3064, 3077.

Outlook: Nearby gold prices are expected to see a substantial rally, probably on the order of 90 dollars or so,
from the 2730 low made in late August. However, while theres still a chance that a resumption of that larger
advance is underway from the 2907 low of November 3, prices will probably see a further decline carrying below
that low before they will be able to sustain a rally.

Analysis: The preferred long term wave count considers a diagonal triangle wave c decline underway from the 5023
high of December 1987, with the decline from the 4167 high of February 1996 to the 2730 low of August 28 the third
wave of the diagonal. A subsequent fourth wave advance should be a corrective type pattern, must reach at least
3258, will most likely be a series of zigzags lasting a year or so, and will probably be something on the order of the
90 dollar advance seen in the second wave of the diagonal. Shorter term, an initial five-wave advance in the
February contract was traced out from the 2775 low of August 28 to 3077 on October 2. While the subsequent
three-wave decline from 3077 to 2907 qualifies as a second wave ( or wave b ) that will be followed by a continuing
advance, prices have not moved higher in impulsive fashion from 2907. While that could mean that a wave c
advance from 2907 is taking the form of a diagonal triangle that is yet to complete its ( double zigzag ) first wave, it
could also mean that the rally from 2907 is a wave x that will be followed by another zigzag carrying below 2907 for
a larger second wave ( or wave b ) from 3077. ( Another rally leg carrying above the 3013 peak of November 18
would likely complete a double zigzag from 2907. )

[March Silver]: ( close 4960 ) ( Closed Friday )

Support: 4935, 4900, 4810, 4720, 4670, 4560, 4525, 4475, 4345, 4300.

Resistance: 4990, 5030, 5135, 5200, 5220, 5290, 5335, 5390, 5480.

Outlook: It appears that prices will need to take out the 4710 low of August 28 at the very least before they will be
in position to begin a rally capable of carrying above the 6933 peak made last February.

Analysis: On both the weekly and daily charts, prices display an overlapping five-wave decline from this years
February peak to the late August low which needs to become a "seven" to complete a corrective pattern. That
decline is probably best counted as a still-in-progress double zigzag ( counted as a-b-c-x-a-b-c ) , with the first zigzag
completed at the 5070 low of May 29, wave x at the 5890 peak of July 23 and wave a of the second zigzag at the
4710 low of August 28. From 4710, wave b could have been completed at 5480 on October 1, making the decline
from there an apparent diagonal triangle wave c that saw its first wave competed at 4810 and its second at 5200
peak of November 12. Or, a wave b from 4710 could be a contracting triangle, in which case ( as long as prices do
not first exceed 5200 ) any quick "crunch" carrying below 4710 could conceivably compete the corrective decline
that began last February.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 19:57 - ID#370218)
SDRer...I can explain all of is as clear...
as mud.: )

Really, they play with the paper to keep the game afoot. "They" must adjust values to meet current needs. Only when the system gets out of wack will your work tell you that "they" are not in control.

Perhaps that is THE will see what others will not when the numbers do not "JIVE".

Could be tomorrow...could be a few years...we watch and wait. Yes.

Must be gone for a time...have a strategy meeting with a beer...w/out permission.: ) Sorry RJ...could not resist.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:00 - ID#234427)
Note On Euro Debt
I have long wondered what the total debt picture of the combined 11 eurpean Member States is and the what the ratio of debt to GDP is.

I found it here:

If I read this correctly the combined debt of the member states is 4.139 Trillion and this is 75% of the combined GDP of the member states.

So the US Debt is about 5.500 Trillion on a GDP of what? around 6.5 Trillion?? Anybody know?


(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:00 - ID#50149)
As an 'investment', perhaps, but I wonder if we could make bullets out of the stuff? The sectional density as compared to jacketed lead would almost be twice as high. With densities that high, who needs depleted uranium ammo? BTW, gold is denser than the radioactive stuff, but it doesn't have the 'chemical' properties at impact time that the 'hot' stuff does.

Geez, imagine the bore fouling problems... A gold plated rifle barrel. :- ) ) I suppose there could be worse things..... :- ) )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:04 - ID#246299)
TYoung--That is why I've gone through gain a nano-second
[or more] of warning [and answer some nagging questions] ...I think it'll work. And yes, they do have themselves in a right mess. A neat and tidy mess, but a mess nonetheless.

All--in 1979 EU said 20%...think that is closer to the truth and the grudging 15% was PR.


Price : AVG 305, HGH 524, LW 217, RNGE 307

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:05 - ID#275194)
Silverbaron; Are you lurking out there?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:05 - ID#263456)
Well....60 minutes did it...had

a 15 min. presentation of the Y2K problem ... and...they did a pretty good job ...had Yardini on, lots of discussion that the infrastructure might not't not ready...pretty square presentation and it was s.c.a.r.y..... Let's now see what the public reaction will be ( if ANY ) ...

any ( AN ) OTHER comments on the program??

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:06 - ID#275194)
BillD: Yeah, I have a comment on it.................Im sorry I missed it.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:06 - ID#370218)
kapex...I just read that and...
My mind just went blank...proves if you write something no one can understand people will think you know what your talking about. Is this guys track record as bad as he writes?

Maybe I really should have a beer or ten!


(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:09 - ID#275194)
TYoung: Could you hear that,......That was the the sound of me laughing my _ ss
off. You are a fuuy guy!!: )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:10 - ID#275194)
Hey Tom, his writing can't be much worse than mine. Yes

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:11 - ID#275194)
Funny guy. Sorry!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:15 - ID#370218)
kapex...or my writing...
but at least I can understand what you write. I could do five paragraphs of similar bull...never saying a thing...and sound as smart. LMAO


(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:21 - ID#275194)
BillD: Iy's just amazing how the shepple in this Great Country of ours
need to be spoon fed information from the democrat, I mean the Idiot box before they make an effort to find out anything about anything.
I'm sure they will be talking about it tomorrow,because they SAW it on TV last night!!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:28 - ID#286230)
Mo in To--Queenstake
I've watched Queenstake for about 15 years but never owned any. As far as I know it has had a history of big moves up and down and has had many good prospects. I don't know if they have ever actually produced anything. I was thinking of buying but not after the recent upswing.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:30 - ID#286230)
What country you in?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:33 - ID#275194)
Selby: The god old USA!
Does anyone know a web site that has charts of Lead and Zinc?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:34 - ID#275194)
Good old USA!! Sorry

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:45 - ID#286230)
You might try here

(Sun Nov 29 1998 20:53 - ID#275194)
Thanks Selby; Can you get charts there?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:12 - ID#261102)
The internet crowd$nve$>$nve$

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:14 - ID#266105)
Will 20:00

US GDP around $8.6T annualized at last report. Debt to
GDP ratio ( 5.6T/8.6T ) around 66%.

This link has got the individual European country debt
to GDP ratios about halfway down--

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:16 - ID#257312)
SDRer @ 20:04-- 20% Gold Euro Backing

The statement says 20% of each ECU member
country's Gold would be held by the European
Central Bank. Let's say Germany, France and
Italy have 15,000 tons of Gold. They give 20% or 3,000 tons to the ECB to back the EMU. Is that how you interpret it?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:21 - ID#93135)
Auric--That's what it seems to say!
This in 1979 please note. But we were not deep in a propoganda war in '79, so one tends to lend it greater credence? Lord, for the transparency of a gold standard. Please. {:- )

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:37 - ID#257312)
SDRer-- Since We Got Ya Here...

Would like your best guess on what happens in January 1999 with the Euro. Is this thing going to fly? I still think this could be another Hindenburg.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:37 - ID#290456)

Just signed on; what's up?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:42 - ID#218252)
Silverbaron; Been wondering what you meant about your response to me re.
Bill Murphys Gold comments?

THE Priest
(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:44 - ID#371242)
something of interest to me
yen vs dollar

(Sun Nov 29 1998 21:51 - ID#290456)

I was just suggesting that somebody ( not necessarily you ) should send evidence that gold is cheap to Bill Murphy.

I would be glad to do it, except I don't have the data at home and it would require a lot of digging. Dow/gold, bonds/gold, constant dollar gold charts are what I had in mind.

I'm sure there must be many ways to represent the value inherent in gold at these prices relative to other things. However, if his "big buyer" friend doesn't already know gold is cheap....I wonder how much he does know. LOL

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:01 - ID#290456)

Maybe we got our wires crossed about Murphy's stuff at vronsky's site ( I just discovered there are two there ) . This is the one I was referencing....see the part at the end:

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:05 - ID#218252)
From Bill Murphy's piece on Gold! Why did AG make that comment?

So what is the US really up to? Too much conspiracy innuendo on our part?

House Banking Committee, July 24, Alan Greenspan: " central banks stand ready to
lease ( i.e. lend ) gold in increasing quantities should the price rise". Our Fed appears
to be true to their word - except, they won't even let the gold price rise at all. The
market acts like a 500 pound gorilla is sitting on it. It is eerie the way the price of
gold suffocates around $300. $300 - not $400, or $500. And it has been kept
down here for over a year. It is important not to forget, however, that there is a
very big natural supply/demand deficit that must be met by gold borrowings or
sales. The addition of added above ground supply has to be relentlessly fed into
the marketplace. Otherwise, the price has to rise to ration the natural mine supply
that is not sufficient for current demand.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:06 - ID#225369)
What percentage of reserves held by foreign governments were U.S. dollars when the U.S. dollar was not considered so "valuable" ? Are these reserves now held by foreign governments convertible per prior agreement or are they as exposed financially as the rest of us are---- to the promise? Could they not, at any time, destroy our derivitives market by demanding delivery of the commodity per contract via payment with reserved U.S. dollar? Stealth contract anyone?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:07 - ID#218252)
Silverbaron; The Nov.25th piece!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:14 - ID#290456)

Thanks; just read it. Sorry for the mixup - my error.

Crystal Ball
(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:18 - ID#340392)
@ Tolerant 1
If you came upon Bill Clinton struggling in a raging river, and you had a choice between rescuing him, or taking a Pulitzer prize-winning
photograph, what shutter speed would you use?

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:20 - ID#225369)
Maybe--------Saddam,if you're reading this------ you could really piss off Clinton if you make a run at Gold.There is more paper than Gold,Saddam.Kill,Saddam,kill the paper gold.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:21 - ID#290456)
Y2K coin

For all you planning a Y2K coin....Southern Coin in Atlanta has one in their current catalog.

It is a one ounce silver coin dated 2000....the obverse is the same as the obverse on the U.S. silver eagle coin, and the reverse is the same as the St.Gaudens obverse on the U.S. golden eagle coin. The reverse is Gold plated. Cost: about $20 as I recall.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:22 - ID#218252)
re: Clintler, a lead life perserver maybe!

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:26 - ID#227238)
Crystal Ball:
It would be important to first throw him a small branch to add some drama. Then be sure to use auto exposure control and a flash for fill-in. ..... probably have to live with the red eye though, I suppose.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:36 - ID#25257)
The Rescue of Bill
But in real life-real time, Al would show up in the knick of time and say, "B-b-bill, just s-s-stay th-th-there while I g-g-go get some help!"

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:39 - ID#280214)
Steve in TO @17:18 re tiny Gold Coins
For common trade either Gold or Silver need to be hardened with Copper.
BUT NOT PLATINUM! Even .9999 is hard enough for circulation.
Does anyone make a teeny wheeny little Platinum coin - less than 1 gram?
Platinum may even have structural characteristics to make a 1/100oz coin.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:44 - ID#334219)
Queenstake has yet to find a deposit. Current drilling on their properties may end up with a discovery. The stock is moving on this speculation. IMO, they better hit...or else.

I would suggest you take a look at SouthWestern Gold for a stock with much more behind its current stock price.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:47 - ID#373403)


Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
May 22, 1998

The Clinton Administration's Policy
on Critical Infrastructure Protection:
Presidential Decision Directive 63
May 22, 1998

Warning and Information Centers

As part of a national warning and information sharing system, the President immediately authorizes the FBI to expand its current organization to a full scale National Infrastructure Protection Center ( NIPC ) . This organization shall serve as a national critical infrastructure threat assessment, warning, vulnerability, and law enforcement investigation and response entity. During the initial period of six to twelve months, the President also directs the National
Coordinator and the Sector Liaison Officials, working together with the Sector Coordinators, the Special Function Coordinators and representatives from the National Economic Council, as appropriate, to consult with owners and operators of the critical infrastructures to encourage the creation of a private sector sharing and analysis center,
as described below.

National Infrastructure Protection Center ( NIPC ) : The NIPC will include
FBI, USSS, and other investigators experienced in computer crimes and
infrastructure protection, as well as representatives detailed from the
Department of Defense, the Intelligence Community and Lead Agencies. It
will be linked electronically to the rest of the Federal Government,
including other warning and operations centers, as well as any private
sector sharing and analysis centers. Its mission will include providing
timely warnings of intentional threats, comprehensive analyses and law
enforcement investigation and response.


The NIPC, in conjunction with the information originating agency, will
sanitize law enforcement and intelligence information for inclusion into
analyses and reports that it will provide, in appropriate form, to
relevant federal, state and local agencies; the relevant owners and
operators of critical infrastructures; and to any private sector
information sharing and analysis entity. Before disseminating national
security or other information that originated from the intelligence
community, the NIPC will coordinate fully with the intelligence
community through existing procedures. Whether as sanitized or
unsanitized reports, the NIPC will issue attack warnings or alerts to
increases in threat condition to any private sector information sharing
and analysis entity and to the owners and operators. These warnings may
also include guidance regarding additional protection measures to be
taken by owners and operators. Except in extreme emergencies, the NIPC
shall coordinate with the National Coordinator before issuing public
warnings of imminent attacks by international terrorists, foreign states
or other malevolent foreign powers.


The National Coordinator shall commission studies on the following

The improved protection, including secure dissemination and
information handling systems, of industry trade secrets and other
confidential business data, law enforcement information and
evidentiary material, classified national security information,
unclassified material disclosing vulnerabilities of privately owned
infrastructures and apparently innocuous information that, in the
aggregate, it is unwise to disclose.

The potential benefit to security standards of mandating, subsidizing, or otherwise assisting in the provision of insurance for selected critical infrastructure providers and requiring insurance tie-ins for foreign critical infrastructure providers hoping to do business with the United States.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:50 - ID#252391)
From Murphy
Yes, Murphy continues his bullish tone. From his Nov. 25th letter he wrote what might be the key to a break in the $300 wall.

"...we hear that several bullion banks are in "trouble".

By trouble we mean they know they are too exposed to an unexpected gold rally. The borrowers of large tonnage of gold may not be so lucky as Long Term Capital was to have a central bank bail them out with an off market settlement if they have to find hundreds of tonnes very quickly to pay back a loan."

Bill wrote that he would soon be revealing evidence of this bullion bank trouble - should be interesting if that news breaks.....

Meanwhile back at the ranch, I notice the tone on Kitco is rather bearish. A bit like the last time there was a poll on the short term direction of gold and the response was overwhellmingly lower and of course the price went up.

Globex is 60 cents lower.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:51 - ID#93135)
Auric, in truth, EVERYTHING looks a little 'Hinderburg-ish' to moi!

But yes, one can reasonably expect 'lift-off'.
And yes, it is a Frankenstein monster of a currency, cobbled together by compromising politicians. Socialist compromising politicians, yet--
as if the labels had real meaning nowadays. {:- ) )

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:54 - ID#287337)
Speed & Rhody - Yikes, I didn't even know . . .
this was a silver Eagle or Maple Leaf. Shows how out of touch I am! I presume they're 1 oz. coins. I'd like to get one. Do you know a good place in Toronto to get 'em. Maybe see a Mexican Libertad as well.

I've found a couple of places that carry modern restrikes of Maria Theresa Thalers, and want to get one of them because of their rich history, but they're not pure Ag. They're around .7 silver, with toughening alloys, I guess because they were a coin that was meant to circulate in the rough-and-tumble of everyday life. I'm holding out to see if one of the local guys can get a more historical one, like one from East Africa.

Thanx for the update,

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:55 - ID#25257)
Yes. This Bunker Mentality usually precedes a sharp rise...especially when the OLD GARDE are conspicuously absent.

Mo in To
(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:57 - ID#347205)
I have one teeny, weeny 1/10 oz. platinum coin, actually I bought it for my son's birthday, it seems to hold together pretty well and it is one of his prizes in his collection!
ps. thanks for the replies on QTR. And you're right, they'd BETTER hit this time. Mind you, look how many times Ashton was able to fool around with run ups on "promising drilling" results, at least four or five times in the past few years.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 22:58 - ID#20359)
Crystal Ball, Namaste' gulp and a puff...I would write the word vote on the camera
and toss it to him and hope the added weight would aid him as he clutched at it...

Mo in To
(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:00 - ID#347205)
Steve in To,
Try the Coin Market on Yonge Street, just below Bloor. If anyone has it they will, they have a good selection and ( I think ) some fair prices.
( are we by chance from the same city? )

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:03 - ID#287337)
Squirrel - That's a great suggestion!
Platinum coins would be especially good for taking cash with you when you go out of the country.

There's only one challenge I would forsee for acceptance of Pt coins. Gold and silver are instantly recognizable, even in their alloyed forms.

Silver tarnishes, and no other non-tarnishing metal has the colour of gold. Platinum doesn't tarnish, and has a beautiful, hard, glossy surface when stamped. Unfortunately, that surface can be imitated in the short run by many other metal alloys, including nickel/cobalt/Fe. The fakes will lose their beauty with time and the deception will become obvious, but that won't help the guy who bought them.

Do you have any suggestions on the issue of authentication of Pt coins?

- Steve

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:08 - ID#287337)
Mo - Thanks for the suggestion.
I've called those folks before, maybe it's time I paid a visit. I'll 'phone 'em up & ask if they have the coin.

I live & work in the one & only TO ( live in the Beaches area, work @ Univ. of Toronto. ) Maybe we can say hello if I am able to make it to the get-together Mooney is organizing.


(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:09 - ID#373403)
Army rules of engagement in Y2K


1. Posse Comitatus Act. The primary restriction on military participation in civilian law enforcement activities is the Posse Comitatus Act ( reference ( v ) ) , which provides:

"Whoever, except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress, willfully uses any part of the Army or the Air Force as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than two years or both."

2. Permissible direct assistance. The following activities are not restricted by reference ( v ) .

a. Actions that are taken for the primary purpose of furthering a military or foreign affairs function of the United States, regardless of incidental benefits to civilian authorities. .This provision must be used with caution, and does not include actions taken for the primary purpose of aiding civilian law enforcement officials or otherwise serving as a subterfuge to avoid the restrictions of reference ( v ) . Actions under this provision may include the following, depending on the nature of the DoD interest and the authority governing the specific action in question:

( 1 ) Investigations and other actions related to enforcement of the Uniform Code of Military Justice ( UCMJ ) ( reference ( d ) ) .

( 2 ) Investigations and other actions that are likely to result in administrative proceedings by the Department of Defense, regardless of whether there is a related civil or criminal proceeding. See DoD Directive 5525.7 ( reference ( w ) ) with respect to matters in which the Departments of Defense and Justice both have an interest.

( 3 ) Investigations and other actions related to the commander's inherent authority to maintain law and order on a military installation or facility.

( 4 ) Protection of classified military information or equipment.

( 5 ) Protection of DoD personnel, DoD equipment, and official guests of the Department of Defense.

( 6 ) Such other actions that are undertaken primarily for a military or foreign affair's purpose.

b. Audits and investigations conducted by, under the direction of, or at the request of IG, DoD, 5 U.S.C., Appendix 3, 8 ( g ) ( reference ( x ) ) , subject to applicable limitations on direct participation in law enforcement activities.

c. Actions that are taken under the inherent right of the U.S. Government, a sovereign national entity under the U.S. Constitution, to ensure the preservation of public order and to carry out governmental operations within its territorial limits, or otherwise in accordance with applicable law, by force, if necessary. This authority is reserved for unusual circumstances, and will be used only under DoD Directive 3025.12 ( reference ( l ) ) , which permits use of this power in two circumstances:

( 1 ) The emergency authority authorizes prompt and vigorous Federal action, including use of military forces, to prevent loss of life or wanton destruction of property and to restore governmental functioning and public order when sudden and unexpected civil disturbances, disaster, or calamities seriously endanger life and property and disrupt normal governmental functions to such an extent that duly constituted local authorities are unable to control the situation.

( 2 ) Protection of Federal property and functions authorizes Federal action, including the use of military forces, to protect Federal property and Federal Government functions when the need for protection exists and duly constituted local authorities are unable or decline to provide adequate protection.

d. Actions taken pursuant to DoD responsibilities under 10 U.S.C. 331-334
( reference ( d ) ) , relating to the use of the military forces with respect to insurgency or domestic violence or conspiracy that hinders the execution of State or Federal law in specified circumstances. Actions under this authority are governed by DoD Directive 3025.12 ( reference ( l ) ) .

e. Actions taken under express statutory authority to assist officials in executing the laws, subject to applicable limitations. The laws that permit direct military participation in civilian law enforcement, include the following:

( 1 ) Protection of national parks and certain other Federal lands. See 16 U.S.C. 23, 78, and 593 ( reference ( y ) ) .

( 2 ) Enforcement of the Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976. See 16 U.S.C. 1861 ( a ) ( reference ( y ) ) .

( 3 ) Assistance in the case of crimes against foreign officials, official guests of the United States, and other internationally protected persons. See 18 U.S.C. 112 and 1116 ( reference ( z ) ) .

( 4 ) Assistance in the case of crimes against members of Congress. See 18 U.S.C. 351 ( reference ( z ) ) .

( 5 ) Assistance in the case of crimes involving nuclear materials. See 18 U.S.C. 831 ( reference ( z ) ) .

( 6 ) Protection of the President, Vice President, and other designated dignitaries. See 18 U.S.C 1751 and the Presidential Protection Assistance Act of 1976 ( reference ( z ) ) .

( 7 ) Actions taken in support of the neutrality laws. See 22 U.S.C. 408 and 461-462 ( reference ( aa ) ) .

( 8 ) Removal of persons unlawfully present on Indian lands. See 25 U.S.C. 180 ( reference ( bb ) ) .

( 9 ) Execution of quarantine and certain health laws. See 42 U.S.C. 97 ( reference ( cc ) ) .

( 10 ) Execution of certain warrants relating to enforcement of specified civil rights laws. See 42 U.S.C. 1989 ( reference ( cc ) ) .

( 11 ) Removal of unlawful inclosures from public lands. See 43 U.S.C. 1065 ( reference ( dd ) ) .

( 12 ) Protection of the rights of a discoverer of a guano island. See 48 U.S.C. 1418 ( reference ( ee ) ) .

( 13 ) Support of territorial governors if a civil disorder occurs. See 48 U.S.C. 1422 and 1591 ( reference ( ee ) ) .

( 14 ) Actions in support of certain customs laws. See 50 U.S.C. 220 reference ( ff ) ) .

3. Restrictions on Direct Assistance. Except as otherwise provided in this enclosure, the prohibition on the use of military personnel "as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws" prohibits the following forms of direct assistance:

a. Interdiction of a vehicle, vessel, aircraft, or other similar activity.

b. A search or seizure.

c. An arrest, apprehension, stop and frisk, or similar activity.

d. Use of military personnel for surveillance or pursuit of individuals, or as undercover agents, informants, investigators, or interrogators.

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:14 - ID#287337)
Squirrel & Mo - another Pt coin thought.
If you wanted to make a small, very valuable coin, you could make it from platinum-iridium alloy. It's incredibly tough, and very valuable! It would be just the thing for newly minted yuppie hard money bugs- much more exotic & high-tech than those boring old gold & silver coins. A great way to jack up your conspicuous consumption quotient : )

- Steve

Steve in TO
(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:17 - ID#287337)
Mo- another question,
where did you get your 1/10 oz. Pt coin? The coin mart?


(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:36 - ID#290281)
Oleman....ohhh he's good tonite.
oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 8:04PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

A serious breakdown from here in the CRB presents a simple trading strategy. Sell EVERYTHING but bonds. Such a breakdown means we are clearly below the ZERO line and into real deflation, which has always been death for equities and for "stuff". Hate to tawk about funnymentals, but I didnt start it. I dont believe the CRB 140 scenario, cause it means Klinton will no longer be in the White House. And I dont think Klinton will ever leave the White House alive.

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 8:29PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

mits: in the next couple years----bery small. It would mean that the boyz who control Klinton, ans all the rest of the govt and financial machinery had lost control. I aint seen nuttin tha t makes me think they are about to lose control. It has to be something external tha t causes it. The procurement of a "device" and the means to deliver it by someone who has been bombed or otherwisew bullied by the Klintonistas could qualify. Or the rise to power in Russia of a regime controlled by people who are actually patriotic Russians.

14u24me . . Sun, Nov 29, 8:32PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

oleman...when mr. bill leaves you think it will matter which party wins the election ( regarding market psychology ) ?

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 8:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

14u: I'll answer your question with a question. What would happen if Slick announced that the Y2K problem was of such importance to the country that we cant afford to take a chance on some Republican who doesnt love us as much as He and Hillary love us, and, ergo, there will be NO election in 2000? Would my congressperson ( Corrine Brown ) vote to impeach him? Would my cousins up in the hills vote Republican? After the CNN polls show the expected 65% support for the Slick One, would the gutless Repugnant Party impeach him? The answer to all 3 questions is NO!!!!

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 8:57PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

14:He wont have to call off the elections for another 2 terms. Hillary will win in a walk in 2000. If they can hold this levitating market up for 2 more years, she'll carry all 50 states.

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:02PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

14u: Funny thing I been observing for several years: Almost all the fokes who've been wrong about the market, looking for a crash every week for years now, alsop have no conception of what the Klintonistas are about. They were on here most of this year saying he would be gone in a few days. I just kept on saying he would only get stronger. But the best thing going for them is so few people understand what's going on. And they wont til its too late.

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:05PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

14u: No: Hillary wins and continues to run that small part of it that Bobby and the Boyz will allow her to run. Bill will continue to talk and chase skirts. Bill has never in his whole life run ANYTHING but his mouth. At that he has no peer. That's why Bobby snatched him up out of Dogpatch in the first place.

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:12PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

hanobi: We'll have a bear someday. But first its gotta start going DOWN. bbnam

hanobi . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:13PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

oleman: that's what counts, it's got to start going down,...

oleman . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:15PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

hanobi: It will go down soon. Just enough to sell the December puts.: ) gone................

mannyd . . Sun, Nov 29, 9:34PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

Oleman has made some very astounding market predictions on this chat in real time recently. However nothing comes close to his prediction of Clinton staying in power. I for one never thought Clinton would survive the damning evidence.

(Sun Nov 29 1998 23:47 - ID#285392)
CC of course you are welcome in Vancouver as I would expect to
be in Quebec. I have nothing against Quebecer's as individuals but I am tired of listening to the leaders like Parizeu and Bouchard and seperatists saying that they intend to milk the rest of Canada and when we can no longer meet their demands they will use this as an excuse to separate.

From your point of view you may well be right that Ontario was at the financial trough before Quebec and that for the last 30 years it was Quebecs turn. Imagine how the rest of us in Canada feel while the two most populace provinces milked the rest of us. Why should the rest of Canada continue to subsidize the vote that will put any party in power. I would be very interested to know when our 30 years of bounty is due?

If we are going to be fair about this give every province their fair chance at being subsidized as the other two provinces.

I am not asking for anything more or less in rights, privileges or finances for all Canadians than are being received by residents of any other province.

How can this be unfair, biased or racist in any way?

Quebecers and Ontarians are wonderful people but in a crunch my family come first as does theirs to them.