Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 00:04 - ID#410196)


(Mon Nov 30 1998 00:28 - ID#45173)
Gold coin ads in NYC targeted at stock market investors
Saw one myself this weekend in a Manhattan bar. At first I thought I'd had to many and I was seeing things but the message was clear: protect your portfolio with the world's most time-honored store of wealth.

If the coin dealers can get their marketing act together, maybe they stand a chance against the equity brokers' gold-is-dead message.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 00:46 - ID#343259)
retearivs AA1IB/7

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:03 - ID#257312)
Star Wars Update

According to The Drudge Report, the reporter with the leaked national security documents is furious that this story was leaked to Drudge. Didn't say how long the reporter, a chap by the name of Waas, has been sitting on these documents.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:16 - ID#20359)
Auric, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I say they ought to throw this guy in jail until he
produces the documents...this is a National Security matter and that means treason and the possible loss of life...sounds to me like business as usual for the media crowd...milk it for every penny they can curiosity so sell through increases...this "leak" has United States military personnel in harms way not to mention the US mainland...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:33 - ID#220325)
Interesting charts on gold and oil
Looks like gold is about to seriously go up or down, opinion?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:34 - ID#373403)
gold and Y2K
People tend to think about big issues only in the home stretch. This new year of 1999 will awaken many people. If more golden eagles have been sold in this year than the last 10 years collectively, then when the mainstream wakes up to the turning of the herd, all hell will break loose. If the Y2K doom and gloomers can increase gold coin purchases so signifigantly and they are ahead of the bell curve then this next year will be very interesting indeed.

Who buys options? Traders and insiders. And traders and insiders have tripled the amount of Dec99 390 call options. Again, these are people ahead of the curve. Paper currency may not be the first choice for converting assets over a few thousand dollars in spending money. Precious metals are being talked about and bought. When the U.S. government falls hopelessly behind in coin production and the public starts demanding bullion, prices cannot help but go up.

At least this is what gets me off to a good nights sleep lately.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:48 - ID#257312)
t1--Holiday Greetings

I would guess a small army of reporters is on the trail of these documents now. Would also bet there are several copies stored in computers. This story is highly in play. Will continue to update.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 01:59 - ID#20359)
Auric, Namaste' gulp and a puff plus Holiday Greetings back at is amazing
to me that not a peep of this has appeared in the general media...not a whimper...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 02:07 - ID#240155)
TheMissingLink (gold and Y2K)

You wrote about the volume of dec99 390 calls, implying that people who "know" are buying them, and that gold is going to go up alot.

I hope you are right, really I do, but...

I am one of the people who purchased dec99 390 calls. You can look back over kitco and determine for yourself if I am a trader, an insider, or a foolish paranoid newbie goldbug who hasn't a clue that the price of gold will be between 294 and 297 forever unless it drops down to 250 just for fun.

I hope your right, I hope that the number of dec99 call options indicates that very smart people think gold will go up, or better that people who know for certain that gold will go up. But I wonder if foolish paranoid newbie goldbugs would be able to buy that many calls? The day before I bought volume was 574, the day I bought it was 1200 or so and the day after it was something like 1750.

It would be nice to think I am running with big dogs, but it's more likely that I am part of a very large herd of stupid puppies.

I have done a search, and I found a web page that mentions this exact option. It's a y2k webpage. I think the y2k crowd has been buying them. Which seems strange, since I started to take y2k seriously I have cared less about my gold options and more about buying physical beans and rice.

Is there anyway to tell how big of lots these options sold in? I mean was it 1-20 contracts at a time or blocks of 7500?

If people are at the position limits for an option is that info available anywhere?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 03:18 - ID#258142)
Aldebaran, Gold options
People, who write new options, expect them to expire worthless - otherwise they would not write them, right? Usually, it is big companies - producers, banks, etc. That does not mean they are necessarily right - nobody knows for sure, what the price will be in a year from now. In case when number of written calls ( open interest ) is high, it is then in interest of these big guys to manipulate the price, to drive it down one way or another, so that at the moment of expiration price is lower then strike. Detailed open interest analysis of calls and puts - per strike and expiration period gives some picture of what "big guys" are thinking about the price - where the price will not be in a given time.
That does not mean, that it is not possible to make good money on deep out-of-the-money options, that with high probability may expire worthless. Any swing up will deliver. If, say within a month, price will go up 10-15$ option price may add 50 or even 100%, simply on expectations that it will continue to grow. Right time to sell IMHO.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 03:21 - ID#252391)
Why the Dec'99 $390 call
Why all the focus on the DEC'99 $390 call. Why has that particular contract picked up all the attention. Why not the #380?? Is it because it is the cheapest or furthest out.???

Dows anybody have a URL to a site that discloses the open interest in the call on the COMEX gold contract??

Good luck to buyers of the calls,,, think I prefer to buy the miners and make some money on the $95 between here and the $390 strike.

Thinking the FEB 300 puts might be interesting the last trading day of December when anxiety about Y2K ought to be at its max.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 03:27 - ID#413109)
Date: Mon Nov 30 1998 01:33
snowbird ( Interesting charts on gold and oil ) ID#220325:
Looks like gold is about to seriously go up or down, opinion?

My take on these kind of charts, especially these days when everyone is a chartist, and most
are experts giving public advice, I would guess a break to the downside is in order, to shake
the tree, so to speak, and then up!
This could take a day or two, or maybe a little longer. A sharp break would be an ideal
time to have some baskets open, at lower prices, to catch some of the real values.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 03:45 - ID#252391)
Reify - think you are right
Markets usually turn when most of the players are looking the other way. Negative technical signals from gold charts breaking down and gold dropping a few bucks would do the trick. Unfortunately, seems the price of gold is pretty stuburn right here at $296.

Fresh bad news from Russia is in the wings on Wednesday when they admitt they are in default.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:22 - ID#252391)
S&P down 550
A little negativity out their in Stock market land overnight. Lower HK and a sluggish Japan leading culprits. Perhaps, too, there were a few people concerned having watched the Y2K segment on the 60 minutes program. Additionally, have to think the Russian default thing which will get more print come Wednesday will have equity markets at least thinking of the bad days of September.

Oh well, the dipsters will be back in before 9000 is revisited. Will the internet stocks not have an up 20% day, Monday.???? Sadly, seems metal miners are also likely to drop. Bonds higher, dollar stronger against most currencies - still a picture of lower commodity prices, deflation, slower growth and declining profitability.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:26 - ID#240155)
jims (Why the Dec'99 $390 call)
In my case, I presumed that the Asian Crisis and the Russian crisis would cause a crash in the US stock market. Well it did in the summer. I also thought it would be a long term crash, and I presumed that in order to fix the destruction of so much wealth the treasury would start printing money as fast as possible. I thought that would make gold go up. I was aware that there were people who thought the world was about to go crazy either the y2k crowd, some of the religious groups, and well, I just figured milleniumism would also drive up the price of gold. In my lifetime gold has been above $800 so I figured $400 was not a bad gamble considering all the things I thought were going on. I have since learned that nearly all my presumptions are likely to be incorrect. However, I have gotten the idea that maybe it wasn't such a bad trade anyhow. I think the premium will go up on these options, but I doubt they will ever be in the money.

To top it all off, I have contracted a very serious case of milleniumism my self.

I suspect that people with a certain mindset might be the ones buying the calls. Think about it, Dec99 until recently was longest out date listed on comex, ( conservative ) or just before the end ( y2k ) call $390: gold is money and it ought to reflect that ( conservative ) or the banks will fail the dollar worthless, only gold maybe silver ( y2k )

after reading kitco for a bit I have heard alot about y2k, and I have started to believe, so I go to a y2k mailing list, guess what they are talking about... they talk about gold as much as kitco talks about y2k.

I suspect this reflects two sides of a single type of mindset.

The dec99 c390 is so "out there" that it's almost definative of what kind of person you are.

Are you a OG 12 99 C 390 kinda guy?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:34 - ID#210114)
Glory!! They've seen the light!!!

IMF starts to query its own ideology

By Michael Dwyer

Stung by the hostility surrounding its role in Asia's
financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has
begun to seriously question its neoclassical economic

In recent months, the IMF has released a series of often
provocative research papers striking at the very heart of
the economic theories that have governed its actions
since it was set up in 1946.

The latest subversive missive to emerge from the IMF's
Washington headquarters attacks the standard
neoclassical model as an explanation for foreign
investment flows across developing countries.

The managing director of the IMF, Mr Michel
Camdessus, has also acknowledged in recent months that
the free flow of capital can potentially be damaging for
emerging economies.

In a speech to the Federation of Latin American Banks in
Panama earlier this month, Mr Camdessus said recent
developments had revealed two basic "flaws" in the
liberalisation and expansion of international capital flows.

He said the regulation, supervision and monitoring of
financial institutions around the world had not kept pace
with the evolution of financial markets. "Second, as far as their development is concerned, too few countries can yet benefit sufficiently -- or at all -- from the enormous potential that globalisation offers," he said.

His comments, as well as the spate of recent IMF papers
on issues like capital controls and current account
convertibility, point to a major reassessment by the fund
of its role in the international financial system.

Its latest working paper on capital flows tries to make
some sense of neoclassical economic models and their
application to foreign direct investment.

If the neoclassical model is taken literally -- with only
capital and labour as inputs and with identical
technologies across economies -- then the poorest
countries should have the highest rates of return to capital and therefore attract the most foreign capital.

The IMF paper quickly concludes that the neoclassical
model cannot explain foreign direct investment flows but,
after examining a series of modified models, also finds
that these do not apply.

"Although the modified versions of the neoclassical model
are somewhat better in explaining the distribution of
foreign direct investment flows across developing
countries than the strictest version, none of the
specifications pass a significance test," the IMF paper

"For understanding the distribution of foreign direct
investment flows across developing countries, the
standard neoclassical model, either with or without
exogenous differences in technologies across countries, is not very helpful," it said.

Private capital flows to emerging economies rose 15-fold
from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, accounting for
about $US200 billion in 1996.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:39 - ID#252391)
I like your style - maybe right for all the wrong reasons? Yes, like you, perhaps this Y2K thing has increasingly begun to worry me, after dismissing it as just another hysteria. Take I have is that on day one things won't go so badly, the world will celebrate with relief, then gradually things will start screwing up and the people in control will start shutting down systems till they can get a fix on the problem. Asia will be the worst. That's were the disruption will come it.

Actually, though I have decided that I am not an expert in the Y2K field, don't want to be and will keep my uninformed opinions to myself. Will be prepared with the essentials and believe that after a period of disruption things will get straightened out. I'm concerned that all the Y2K bugs who have bought gold will be down at the coin shop January 3rd if the world hasn't stopped and the price of gold will really take a tank. This group of people are jumping on gold - frankly I think the silver junk coins will be the best barter tools and I plan on getting some by mid year.

The year Y2K crowd will not be able to power a gold rally unless the CBs get out of the way at $300. Think I'll look up the quotes on the Dec'99 #390 call.

NIce chatting with you... I enjoy your humble perspective.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:53 - ID#240155)
jims read Delphi's 3:18 post..
it seems to be good advice regarding these 390 calls

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:55 - ID#224230)
deep out of the money calls @jims
I'm enjoying your reasoning and conversation on this subject

- My approach will be ( later today...when the market opens ) to buy some Oct99 360's and 340's - the price difference between these and the DEC390's being of no great importance if the price takes off.

It seems to me that if POG does take off it will happen earlier rather than later, and as Steve Kaplan on his site guesses, there might be a nasty bull market correction at around 380 to punish the latecomers.

So, in early and relatively expensive, cash in early, buy some puts when the price looks set to correct and turn the profits into physical before somebody has an excuse to suspend trading..... ( Y2K ) .

This DEC99 calls thang seems to me to be TOO UNIMAGINATIVE, TOO OBVIOUS and cutting it too close..

Comments about this "Strategy" appreciated as I'm somewhat of a newbie options speculator - though more and more convinced that Y2K will be a wonderful excuse to suspend the markets.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 04:57 - ID#252391)
Gold Option Quotes
The gold options quotes that I have don't go out as far as the DEC 99 $390. Did notice that the Oct 360 was at $1 or $100 per call. Opened unchanged. Also noticed that the in the money April calls at $275 only required about a 2% rally from here to break even. Probably not much liquidity in that option but these small premiums for at and in the money calls are rather inviting. Heck, by April ( or March ) we ought to be off to the races in gold for all the reasons amplified heretofore.

oh well, stick with what I know......

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:05 - ID#252391)
Think your reasoning is very good. We were typoing our last posts at the same time thinking the same thing, I guess. Wherever ones goes the volitility in the calls will certainly pick up ( if gold gets over $300 ) and with them some premium. I'll watch those $360 October calls and remeber when we chatted about them at a mere $100 a piece.

For my money though I think I'll take that $100 and buy 20 shares of Harmony ( HGMCY ) which at $380 I suspect will be around $20 a share. Not quite up to your 20::1 gain on the 360 calls.

I like your idea about taking the money and running beofre they have a reason to shut down the exchanges.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:13 - ID#224230)
Y2K @jims
Surely the thing about analysing Y2K and reacting appropriately is that you don't need to be a ) informed or b ) technically skilled

because even the most informed/knowledgeable won't actually know "the answer / extent of the direct effects" until it happens. Apart from preparing a bit yourself, all one needs to do is correctly anticipate the human behaviour in the markets.

It's the indirect effects that will be much more dramatic. And they'll start early 1999999999 ( 99.999 gold ! - somebody get off that 99999 key ) !!! : ) -

Caused by the behaviour of millions of people who ALSO haven't a clue. This fearful thoughtform will build up like a nasty black cloud over the most technologically developed societies ( not me here in Thailand ) and result in all sorts of wild swings in prices. From batteries to generators to gold.

I reckon J.6pac wlil ignore it ( denial ) , some less greedy babyboomers will move their money to higher ground if they can, and big business will continue merging and acquiring ( which will fuel a longer than expected bull market ) .

But the net effect will be a most interesting year. Volatility being the only sure thing. Puts AND calls.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:25 - ID#240155)
April in the money calls $275 only required about a 2% rally from here to break even
These sound very interesting, in my mind ( and thats very uninformed ) I think that we will know by April. If y2k will be bad, the Euro all of it.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:32 - ID#26793)
All of a sudden China is not paying its foreign bills on time.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:37 - ID#26793)
Placer Dome news

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:38 - ID#240155)
esotericist Volatility being the only sure thing. Puts AND Calls
Yes, that is what I was thinking, I paid $1.00 and my commission was $25 per so I need $1.25 to breakeven. I was thinking if the premium goes to maybe $3 I could look into what puts and calls would go for then, and sell one and buy a out of the money put and out of the money call. I don't know enough about stops on thinly traded markets, will the floor brokers bounce prices around to trigger stops? But I would want to use stops for the rest of the calls.

I am probably very foolish, but I have these visions of gold going up, triggerig a stop as it comes back down, I buy puts and calls, and the Central Banks try just a bit too hard and gold drops to below my puts and triggers stops on the way up. Well on and on...

Of course everyone knows that in December of 99 gold will go for $296.70

ah well, it's a fun game even if I don't win.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:39 - ID#252391)
By George ESO . . I think you have it!!!
Craziness will abound, premiums will soar and dive, lots of great trading opportunities. Stock market will crash at some point in '99 when some fiscal year 2000 computer problem manifests itself and the press runs with it as a harbinger of things to come.

How are the banks doing ther in Thailand - any sign the corner has been turned.???

(Mon Nov 30 1998 05:47 - ID#240155)
jims premiums won't dive volitility is a component of price so..
at some point the preimums for all the options within maybe 15 strike prices of spot will be real high. And it will be time to quit playing. Maybe by that time we could go over to the silver table and play that game.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:04 - ID#252391)
Fleckenstien / PAASF
Speaking of silver, picked up the following over on the Silicoan INvestor tread.

"Reports filed by Bill Fleckenstein up to Oct 15/98 indicate he has added 34,600 shares of PAASF at prices of $5.13-$5.30 US to his position. As of that date he held 947,300 shares."

Pretty good buy points, quite a stake ( about 4%, I think ) - wondered who was supporting the stock above the $5 line. A stock to watch and have if silver gets going. Good sponsorship, plenty of attention and promotion, some question marks in regards to the company's Russian adventure and capital costs associated, but the company does seem to have other developmental properties and interests that could turn it profitable with silver over $5.50. Stock was near 12 at one point this year - back in the heady days of $7 silver.

My favorite silver play.....but I have no shares currently.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:11 - ID#252391)
South African golds sterring
The All Gold JSE at 1037 is up 1/2 percent - highs for the prior last three trading days are at 1041. Another 1/2 percent higher and this guage of gold share direction will give off some good technical flashes.

Maybe not enough to add much to the option price of the way out '99 gold options, but comfort that the selling preasure is being overcome.

Of course, that's if we get up and hold another 1/2 percent rally.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:14 - ID#29048)
Auto makers and Y2K (a significant hit to earnings)
November 30, 1998
Auto Makers Battle Y2K Bug In a Vast Supplier Network


Auto makers have been checking under the hood of their operations to debug potential Year 2000 problems, but similar difficulties at their far-flung networks of global suppliers also threaten to cripple vehicle production.

Detroit's Y2K challenge goes way beyond the pitfalls often associated with the so-called millennium bug, which could make mainframe computers and devices embedded with computer chips behave as if the year is 1900 instead of 2000.

Equally alarming for the auto makers is the realization that their tens of thousands of suppliers face similar problems. Under constant pressure to cut costs, auto companies in recent years have squeezed slack out of the supply chain, often holding less than a day's supply of parts in inventory. Because suppliers frequently deliver key pieces several times a day, a breakdown anywhere along the line rapidly brings all production to a halt, as the strikes at two General Motors Corp. parts plants demonstrated this summer. Those job actions forced the shutdown of virtually all of GM's North American production.

Millions of Computer Devices

The sheer scale of the auto industry's Y2K efforts is daunting. GM says its examination of potential Y2K problems has turned up about 1.7 million computer devices that control everything from the robots that weld car bodies together to the heat and lights at its plants. That total dwarfs the roughly 7,600 business-computer systems GM's investigation found.
Ford Motor Co. recently contracted to use special computer software to check the chips that run the machines in some of its plants.

But the potential problems are much more widespread than those examples suggest. Big auto makers have more than 150,000 suppliers world-wide. Dana Corp.,a parts maker based in Toledo, Ohio, has each of its world-wide locations routinely update an internal survey on Y2K compliance and posts it on an intranet site. Altogether, Dana's locations must check on the readiness of 20,000 suppliers.

"The two most important things for us right now are manufacturing and our supplier base," says GM spokesman John Ahearne. Auto companies have set up special teams to spot-check suppliers' readiness and lend a helping hand to those that are lagging behind. GM has identified 40,000 supplier facilities as critical to its ability to produce and must make sure that all will bring them smoothly into 2000. Those that refuse to cooperate face the loss of contracts. Cost Above $1.5 Billion

Big U.S. auto makers and their suppliers are on track to spend well over $1.5 billion attacking Y2K problems in their computer networks and other devices, according to recent Securities and Exchange Commission filings. GM alone says that bringing its systems into the year 2000 will costnearly $1 billion, including $300 million paid to its main computer
contractor, Electronic Data Systems Corp. GM, which has several hundred people working on the problems full-time, and thousands of others doing so on a temporary basis, says it plans to spend the bulk of its Y2K budget in the next few months as it pushes to get repairs in place for testing next year. Auto companies are so worried that some are expected to stockpile key parts or line up alternate sources, in case suppliers' assurances of compliance prove wrong.

"I look at what you can and cannot control," says Roger Buck, Y2K program manager at DaimlerChrysler AG. "On the outside, we are totally dependent on our supplier base." Overseas suppliers are of particular concern, according to industry officials, because awareness of the Y2K problem outside the U.S. isn't as high. And many struggling companies in Asia don't have the resources to mount major repair efforts even if they realize the risk. For some of the tiny suppliers at the bottom of the chain, the burden of dealing with the Y2K problem has been heavy. Donald Mayo, plant manager at Parkview Metal Products of San Mateo, Texas, says that readying his 200-employee company was "a huge drain on resources." But he says Parkview, which makes fuel systems and audio parts, will be officially compliant in early 1999.

Differences of Opinion

In their SEC disclosures, the auto companies and their suppliers said they expect any disruptions to be isolated and temporary, though they warned that financial results could suffer as a result. Pessimists paint darker pictures of plants grinding to a halt across the country in a hain reaction of Y2K problems.

"We're not basing any ratings on that kind of scenario, but one can't ignore that risk altogether," says Scott Sprinzen, who studies the auto industry for the Standard & Poor's credit-rating agency. "It could mean a blip in earnings in early 2000. That's what we're taking as most likely."

Mr. Sprinzen says one U.S. auto maker discovered a plant conveyor system suffered from the Y2K bug. The original manufacturer was long since out of business, the language it had used to write the program was obsolete, and its former programmers were retired. The auto company ripped out the
conveyor and replaced it entirely. "That was a real eye-opener for me," says Mr. Sprinzen.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:19 - ID#29048)
Gold Index opens higher
November 30, 1998

All Gold Index Opens Higher

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- The All Gold Index advanced in early trading Monday, while the All Share and Industrial indexes followed certain Asian equities markets into negative territory.

Shortly after trading began at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the All Gold Index was up 3.80 at 1036. However, the All Share Index dropped 47 points to 5608.70 and the Industrial Index was down 65.50 at 6284.40.

On Monday, Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index tumbled 3.16%, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225-stock average closed down 1.23%. Sanlam was unchanged at 6 rand. It was the most actively traded stock so far in the session, with more that 27 million of its shares changing hands. Monday marks the debut of Sanlam, ending its transformation from a mutual society. Sanlam is one of South Africa's largest insurance and asset-management groups.

Greg Potter, head of international trading at BOE Securities Ltd., attributed the heavy trading in Sanlam to former policyholders cashing in their free Sanlam shares.

Among other issues, Liberty Strategic Investments, or Libsil, soared 65 cents to 12.50 rand. On Monday, Liberty Life announced that substantial interests of Libsil, the investment holding arm of the Liberty Life group, will be distributed to shareholders as part of a broad reorganization of the group.

Meanwhile, investors kept an eye on shares of gold producer Western Areas, which is expected to announce the details of a tie-up with Canadian mining group Placer Dome later in the day.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:23 - ID#29048)
Layoffs accelerating in the U.S.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 06:30 - ID#29048)
anecdotal evidence
Over a Thanksgiving dinner, the topic of Y2K came up. One very successful relative scoffed at the doomsayers, but worried about the "herd" mentality of the public, as the issue is pounded in the press. The upshot of the conversation was that this guy is seriously considering buying 20k worth of gold "just in case".

(Mon Nov 30 1998 07:09 - ID#288466)
Were you the one looking for a piece of the Argentinian Gold?

I just over the weekend noticed in CPM's "News & Views" November letter that ( according to CPM ) the gold will be sold in an upcoming auction by Sotheby's.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 07:54 - ID#288466)
Precious Metals and Energy T/A

Note comment on the energy chart. LOL

(Mon Nov 30 1998 07:58 - ID#288466)
XAU Elliott Wave Analysis by Yvan Auger

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:15 - ID#288466)
Cup & handle technical pattern on Cameco Corp.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:15 - ID#246299)

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 179.166 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 295.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Nov 1998 ) : 178.813 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 27 Nov 1998 ) : 296.150 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9812 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9250 US Dollars

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:19 - ID#228136)
Durban Deep
The Gold Newsletter put out another feature issue promoting DROOY. I received it over the weekend. It usually causes a pop in the share price.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:33 - ID#339274)
T bonds&Dx
Dollar index recovered 50% while March Bonds are relatively
weaker in the recovery,129 16/32 -130 resistance
Bonds before Christmas season are volatile,probably with
no exception this season.
Crude oversold and due for a relief rally,a couple of days
Gold as mentioned before under pressure this week,good time
to be in position.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:39 - ID#20359)
I find it interesting that Silver is THE fashion statement metal...everywhere you turn
Silver is being touted as THE metal...was just switching around the television and heard same again on Good Morning America during a what to get the special Lady in your life for the Holidays...Won't people out there be shocked to find out that their $65.00 earrings are worth virtually nothing in comparison to the purchase price when Silver doubles...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:53 - ID#20359)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...interesting...a little late...but interesting...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 08:56 - ID#317211)
ALL: A note of caution
Gollum conspicuously absent. He may be in the basement...
playing with his levers.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:06 - ID#33184)
Large Jap real estate company gone under

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:11 - ID#317193)
Can we try...Gold Net...sure to work. Laughing with you.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:12 - ID#35571)
No more Mr. Flatline.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:14 - ID#224230)
@tantalus - Gollum A,W,O,L.
Yes, where is he when you need him ?
I'm feeling responsible for getting him to "back off" and make himself busy relabelling them last Friday. But NOW I'm all loaded up with Calls and ready to play. I'm ready for him to yank those levers. And he's AWOL. I ask ya !

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:14 - ID#354133)
They'll find a reason to send Ruskies $$$
Lugar Wants Foreign Aid For Russian Arms Reduction

Russia is in such economic distress that if the United States wants to see that country's chemical, biological and nuclear weapons dismantled, it will have to pay for it, Sen. Richard G. Lugar, R-Ind., said Nov. 24 after returning from the country.

Lugar and several other current and former lawmakers spent nine days visiting sites where nuclear bombers and submarines are being dismantled, nuclear materials are being stored, nuclear scientists are being retrained, and laboratories for biological and other weapons are being turned to peaceful purposes.

Lugar said that the trip proved that the program he and former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., ( 1972-97 ) initiated has been successful, pointing in particular to the deactivation of almost 5,000 strategic weapons.

But he said that without foreign help, Russia would be unable to meet the costs of reducing its stocks of chemical weapons under the Chemical Weapons Convention or of plutonium under the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ( START I ) . Those costs have been estimated as high as $5 billion for the chemical weapons alone,
Lugar said.

Russia's financial burden would only increase, Lugar said if, as he now expects, it approves the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ( START II ) , which requires further cuts in nuclear missiles.

From Congressional Quarterly Weekly
November 28, 1998

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:14 - ID#35571)
Ready for a workout?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:16 - ID#224230)
Hi Gollum
Speak of the devil : )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:17 - ID#35571)
Calls? Oh migod! I thought you were getting puts.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:19 - ID#35571)
Oh well
Anyone getting calls today will get some good prices this morning.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:19 - ID#317211)
Gold spot down $1.15. Gollum!!! You mislabeled your knobs.
Please fix immedeately.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:21 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:21 - ID#35571)
I thought people were wanting to buy this morning. So naturally I wanted to run the prices down. Then, when all are aboard, to the moon!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:22 - ID#35571)
Observe the return of the snake
Mr. Volatility is back!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:22 - ID#317193)
If'n your going to pull those levers at least take gold down to $285...I need to buy. TIA


(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:23 - ID#35571)
Why stop there?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:27 - ID#224230)
Gollum's skating on THIN ICE here today...
Actually I just put in the order about 30 minutes ago and my broker has run off to the market to fill them. I expect him back shortly. So feel free to keep gold "off a little" about here - for about an hour or so 'til he gets back. Then "YANK" them. ( Yank is a pulling motion I believe - in contradistinction to the other technical term "BOOT" which connotes pushing. )

So don't BOOT them today, YANK them. Right ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:28 - ID#317193)
I'll take $270-280...but I'll be in before then so it matters not. Just waiting to see if a few folk get shaken out. It is that or buy at $305.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:34 - ID#317211)
Canadian dollar continuing slow upward trend. Keep it up!
With Tolerant1 back on the political trail &
and Gollum controlling the levers...

off to the SoCal freeways knowing this site in good hands.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:40 - ID#224230)
Has anybody been to this site in error ?

I did so, half-asleep editing a URL posted here ( this "en" fetish is SO annoying ) ...anyhow ...

It's a family run skiiing lodge business. Looks very friendly.

Now do you think they know why they get so many hits ? And might they not get "cute" and substitute working subdirectory pages full of ads for the ones we posted here. Just a thought. Think I'll email them and buy the space....

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:50 - ID#20359)
If this is true...the US government is being run by the biggest Jack's asses in hitstory for sure...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 09:54 - ID#20359)
last post WRONG ARTICLE...this is the RIGHT one concerning Jack's asses...
DANIEL SCHORR: How CNN changed history
Copyright  1998 Nando Media
Copyright  1998 The Christian Science Monitor

( November 30, 1998 09:15 a.m. EST ) -- The "CNN effect," the media analysts call it - the way instant news affects foreign policy decisions. Like President George Bush having to send troops to protect the Kurds in northern Iraq in 1991 once television had shown their suffering. Or Americans pulled out of Somalia once television had shown an American airman's body being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu. Officials will tell you they often learn of important developments on CNN before they hear from embassies or the CIA.

Often officials, aware that citizens are seeing what they are seeing, must improvise instant policies. In 1962, President John F. Kennedy had the luxury of six days to deal with the Cuban missile crisis before the public became aware of it. That is not likely to happen today. Our global village is also a global intercom for communication among leaders.

Never has there been a more dramatic example of the "CNN effect" than what happened on Saturday Nov. 14. Were it not for CNN, the bombs might well have been raining down on Iraq before President Clinton knew that Saddam Hussein was ready to yield on weapons inspection. The attack was set to "go" at 9 a.m. EST. B-52 bombers were already in the air. A few minutes after eight, National Security Adviser Sandy Berger was called at home by a subordinate. CNN correspondent Brent Sadler was on the air from Baghdad with word from an Iraqi official that President Saddam Hussein was responding "positively" to an overnight letter from U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan appealing to him to let the weapons inspectors come back.

Berger rushed to the White House, arriving at 8:15. In the next half-hour, monitoring CNN all the time for further details, Clinton consulted his security team by telephone, including Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, airborne on her way to Asia. At 8:45, with 15 minutes to go, the president called the Pentagon with orders to delay - later to abort - the attack.

Since then Iraq has shown signs of renewed resistance to inspection, but the Clinton administration has evinced no immediate inclination to carry out its threat of attack without warning. Think about how CNN may have changed the course of history. Think about the communications age we live in and the way nail-biting officials must make fateful decisions without time to think. And, if you're like me, you will worry a little bit when powerful people make snap decisions, trying to keep up with the information curve.

DANIEL SCHORR is senior news analyst for National Public Radio.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:03 - ID#45173)
I don't get it. How is the US gonna launch a strike against Iraq without warning? Aren't we going to have to get the inspectors out of the way first and won't the exit of the inspectors signal the Iraqis that an attack is imminent? Am I missing something?


Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:05 - ID#33184)
Japan beginning to unravel ?
The JDC Corp ( midsized Japanese contruction company ) filed for protection against creditors, according to a Jpn wire report. The Tokyo based company is reported to have 400 bln Yen in debts ( which compares to the 511 bln Yen in debts for last years Tokai Kogya filing ) . The report does not mention what banks or institutions JDC had borrowed from.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:09 - ID#288466)
Small gold coins - Mexico 2 and 2 1/2 Peso
A few of you have been looking for small gold coins - these are the smallest bullion coins which I know about.

I've found a source for the 1945 Mexico 2 Peso and 2 1/2 Peso coins at Coast-to-Coast Coins. They still have them in stock and last advertised them in their August catalog, page 8. ( Sorry, I don't have gram weights on these )

2 Peso ( BU ) - $19.95 each, 10 for $$189
2 1/2 Peso ( BU ) - $24.50 each, 10 for $239

call ( 800 ) 638-9969 Plastic accepted; delivery in 3 or 4 days after order by insured mail. I use this dealer for frequent small orders & have had excellent service from them.

PS I have no beneficial interest in this - just passing the info along.

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:15 - ID#242214)
Canadian Interest Rates!!!! Is this right?!!!!
This has to be a mistake -

Does anyone know anything about short-term rates in Canada
shooting up to 15%? Holy cow, if this is real, are we
seeing the equivalent of the peso collapse in '94????

It must be a mistake, I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:16 - ID#24135)
Placer takes half of Areas for $320 mill
to all
Placer Dome's purchase of half of
western areas mining interest is
a done deal .. they paid 235,00 cash
plus a processing royalty of 1.75 %.
I understand the result is equivalent
to an NPV of 320 mill dollars ..
A sweet deal for Placer in my view ..

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:24 - ID#339274)
Rolled up the positions,poised to buy back .70 and .75

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:25 - ID#288466)
Mexico 2 and 2 1/2 Peso gold coins - gold content
2 Peso - 0.0482 Troy Oz
2.5 Peso - 0.0603 Troy Oz

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:35 - ID#348169)
@Who Cares
Drop the 1 from in front of the five and take a bromo. Write Bloomberg a letter and win $50. Do not pass go, do not collect Pay.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:38 - ID#288466)
Mexico 2 and 2 1/2 Peso gold coins
Here's another source from the web, but I don't know anything about the company, and have not done any business with them.

Who Cares?
(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:38 - ID#242214)
Dropping a 1 does not jive with last week's 3-month rate of 7.3%.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:51 - ID#408236)
@ Silverbaron: Here's a plug for Bart: Kitco is a little cheaper
on Krugs and Maples, than your last post. Does anyone know of difficulties in mailing gold
across the US-Canada border?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:53 - ID#317193) problems in mailing across US/Can border...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 10:53 - ID#234182)
John Disney Placer post @10:16
Thanks for the Placer news; why is $320 million a steal? A couple of questions:What value did they place for the indicated resource value in the ground, what cut off value was used and are the reserves open pitable? tia PS $US or$CND? As a holder of PDG I think its a steal as well but I like to check up on those guy making the decisions from time to time ( :+ ) )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:00 - ID#35571)
Just for fun
Let's give the levers a little jiggle the other way...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:02 - ID#288466)
My post was for information only.....several people had been trying to locate these small Mexican gold coins, and I just stumbled across them in an old catalog.

I have NOT shopped around to see if the Mexican ( or any other ) coins can be obtained cheaper at Kitco.....or elsewhere.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:10 - ID#348169)
@Who Cares and Bromo!
I checked the URL before posting that message and the three month showed nothing - like 0% and it was only the six month rate showing the 15% figure. All that I'm saying is that it looks like an obvious typo. BTW - Right after I posted I took my own advice and took a Bromo ;- ) Haven't used the stuff very often but I had the stomach flu this week-end and am doing everything I can to MEND. Always take whatever I say with a grain of salt ( Bromo anyone? ) .

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:12 - ID#219363)
Hmm. Why did you decide to take the equities down today ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:12 - ID#20359)
EJ, Namaste' gulp and a puff...the entire IRAQ situation is an abortion of a farce and
I understand what you are saying but in any military action one has NO choice but to expect/accept and deal with the loss of inventory/gear and "acceptable" human loss...I am sure it eats at the guts of those military commanders who must execute the orders of engagement...I am positive that the word acceptable never passes their lips the same way ever again in their lives...

I pity our military personnel as they have become actors in Clintler's primetime soap opera and pawns in his poll driven and lust for office video is sick...very...very sick...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:19 - ID#284255)
TYoung - Posting new urls?
I'd drive you crazy if I was to do that.
I'd guess that I'd be gathering about 50 plus urls a day.
Different ones that fit into the different pages.
There would be over 4000 urls collated now.
Unfortunately the pages are getting a bit to full
And I need to cut and redo them.
Hopefully not to far away.

John D
I'm not sure how they rank the different countries.
I'd guess it revolves aroung which countries doing well in sports.
Or which bunch of accountants are toting up the sums.

I'd say they like playing darts a lot.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:21 - ID#334219)
I agree with you that Placer made a nice deal...but I don't think it is a steal. Despite the very strong reserves of 59M+ ounces of gold, production capacity will be limited ( relative to the size of the reserves ) due to the fact that the yellow stuff is deep. IMO, a great acquisition at a fair price. This new resource, however, will likely be more valuable several decades down the road then it is now. By that time, most of the low grade on surface Pierena style deposits will have been discovered...and those left with the Western Areas of this world will rule the gold market.. But I'll be dead by then.

This bring us to your question of a few weeks ago...Which one is better cheap and deep $5/ounce gold or more expensive on surface ready to be produced $100+ gold ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:22 - ID#339274)
long 20 1/8,stop 19 7/8

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:23 - ID#408236)
@ Silverbaron: Yes, I understand and thanks for keeping the group
updated on coin availability. You are a proverbial gold mine of
valuable information for this site.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:33 - ID#317193)
Gollum...don't HAVE to do this all in one day just for me...really!: )

sharefin...I understand...keep posting the new three star url's...please.


Cage Rattler
(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:34 - ID#33184)
Perhaps another reason for Gold's weakness today is that Friday was Final Notice Day. Longs had to get out by Friday to avoid risk of receiving a delivery notice. But Comex was closed Friday, so longs that didn't get out on Wednesday may be in a hurry to get out today.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:36 - ID#254321)
Secret Service -- No records of Vince Foster on last day
All: It is odd that on Vince Foster's last day ( at the White House ) , the Secret Service has no records. One can only conclude that they were appropriated, or that the records do not match the official version. In these days of high tech creative editing, it is amazing that no one has modified the official records. But then -- methods used to diagnose modification of images have advanced as well. A VCR head pattern probably has a fairly unique fingerprint, even if it is not like DNA analysis. I haven't read the details on the url to determine if there is a crucial '18 minute gap' in the Fostergate coverup.

This won't go away, will it? Perhaps our leaders will have to tell the truth someday. There is a first for everything. Somehow, I think the truth will only be forced out, and on this matter I would guess that many individuals would not want a Vince Foster coverup scandal to come out.

But -- if WJC's secret supporters finally decide that he is not an asset, but a liability -- there is alot that could be leaked that would embarrass him. Monicagate would look like a picnic.

It is unfortunate that we only have the likes of Matt Drudge and World Net Daily -- not ones closer to the action, like Woodward and Bernstein of WaterGate fame. All the Woodwards and Bernsteins of the 90's have been intimidated by the monlithic newsmedia bosses, who answer to 'the establishment'.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:36 - ID#350194)
Holiday Alert! Bromo Sales to Increase as Kitcoites Plan Holiday Meeting in Toronto Area!
( KP ) ( Kitco Press ) - For immediate release - Bromo sales are expected to increase in Canada and the U.S the weekend of Dec. 11-13th as Kitcoite Gold Bugs ( and Buggettes ) today announced their intention to hold an unofficial gathering in Hollywood North to promote their own health and world-wise use of Gold, Silver, Platinum, Paladium, Iridium and Molson's Golden Ale. Mr. Stephen ( the Howler ) Mooney has just put out the word that the expected deluge of wild-eyed bugs will swamp an as yet undisclosed downtown Toronto location and ravage the local fare in a manner not seen since the locusts of biblical times. So mark it on your calendar folks! On Friday Dec. 11th the hords will begin to arrive, on Saturday Dec. 12th they will feast and hopefully the city will still be standing after the host leaves on Sunday Dec. 13th. Mayor Mel Lastman is rumoured to be nervous. Undisclosed sources have quoted the mayor as saying, "Toronto, still just cleaning up, in the afternath of hundreds of thousands of visitors to the annual Santa Claus Parade will have to do its best to withstand this latest onslaught from this shadowy fringe group 'kitcoites', not much of which is known by city hall at this point. We are working on getting some reports together at the moment and we have pulled our Y2K compliance team temporarily off their assignments to tackle this latest threat to our fair city."

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:41 - ID#324266)
Make sure, if you are a US citizen, that Keetco gets your
SS number correct. They botched mine and I had to play phone
tag with border guards for two days.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:44 - ID#258427)
Whoa....!!! Some stops must have been hit...
Gold off $ $ selling your hoard or sumting?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:45 - ID#421269)
@ Gold Stocks

How long before the walls cave in on the gold shares, drooy can you make 1 3/4. We shall see, oh yea !

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:45 - ID#24135)
for CC/and others ..
I posted the following previously for the benefit of Mr
CC .. bless you .. perhaps you were out to lunch .. you never
said a word .. I post again .. please think about it ..

" There are two ways of investing in gold properties ..
buying cheap areas with higher cost gold ( Harmony )
buy expensive areas with lower cost gold ( Abx ) ...

the question of which strategy is better is
interesting ..

lets take two cases .. buy at 5$/oz gold with an
AVERAGE cost of 250 $/oz
buy 150 $/oz gold with an AVERAGE cost of 150
$/oz .. ( Im being generous ) ..

with gold at 300$/oz the profit is ( 300 - 250 ) /5
or 10$ per dollar invested for cheap gold
... and ( 300- 150 ) /150 or 1$ per dollar invested for
expensive gold ..

with gold at 250 .. the high cost mine shuts down
and the low cost mine makes 100/150 = $0.66/per
dollar invested ..

but point is that gold only has to stay 5$ above
average cost for the investment in the cheap high
cost mine to break even dollar for dollar with
the ABX style "going first class" mine.
ie ( 255-250 ) /5 = one $ per dollar
and ( 255 - 150 ) /150 = almost one $ per dollar.

with gold at 400$ the numbers are amazing ..
the Harmony approach gives ( 400 -250 ) /5 = $30 per $
and the ABX strategy gives ( 400-150 ) /150 = $1.6 per $

Now which one do you prefer ???
... If you think gold is so lousy that it will fall
below 250 then WHY WILL IT STOP THERE ?? WHY NOT
GO TO ZERO?? Why mine it at all ?? why buy a gold
mine .. buy an internet stock instead .. Do you
get my drift .. "
********************************* *******************
The only reason IMHO to spend SO MUCH of the
Shareholders dough on a mine like putrid.. er Pierina
.. is simple .. if gold goes down .. the BOARD OF
DIRECTORS OF BARRICK's pensions and kiss off costs
are protected .. shareholder's will never get a look
in with ABX anyway .. Its simply looking after number
one ..

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:48 - ID#408236)
@ Mooney: re Kitco Toronto Meet: I shall be marking the date
on my calendar. If you can let me know by this Friday, how many are
coming, I shall slab up some silver high grade from Cobalt Ontario as
souveniers for the evening.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:48 - ID#298380)
Gold availability
A large coinshow in Houston this past weekend ( 65 dealers ) ,had no shortage of gold coins for sale. Saints, all kinds of Numismatic
gold and bullion coins were in plentiful supply. Eagles and mapleleafs
averaged $313/once. Krands $310. US and Canadian silver eagles $8.00.
If you have cash and want to buy gold, go to the coinshows.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:50 - ID#183109)

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:54 - ID#183109)
New focus on gold traders

23 November 1998
New focus on gold traders
Producers band together in bid to increase transparency in derivatives and futures markets

David McKay
THE world's leading gold producers, including Anglogold and North American rival Barrick Gold, have banded together in an attempt to increase transparency in the speculative gold trading market which has been blamed for the drastic decline in the metal's price since 1996.

Bobby Godsell, the CE of the world's largest gold producer, Anglogold, said yesterday producers of more than half of the world's gold output, about 36-million ounces a year, were represented at a brainstorming session in London on Saturday. The intention was to "turn the spotlight on" gold trading, particularly in the derivatives and futures markets.

This is the first time major gold producers have assembled to discuss strategies on commonly held market concerns. The meeting comes against the background of a poor gold price, which fell performance which has seen bullion slide from more than $400/oz in early 1996 to about $260 earlier this year. It is now about $295.

A report back on progress made at the meeting is planned for February or March. The proposals will also be taken to the World Gold Council whose responsibilities the producers hope to broaden rather than replace.

"The aim of the meeting was to broaden and deepen the pattern of co-operation between the world's gold producers and initiate dialogue with market makers. We want to find out who the market players are," Godsell said. The producers hoped to introduce smaller and medium-sized companies to continual dialogue.

Harmony MD Bernard Swanepoel, whose company is not a member of the World Gold Council, said he backed the initiative. It would be useful if it could help producers to understand the gold market.

Only 10% of gold trade is conducted on official exchanges such as Comex or Nymex. The remaining 90% is conducted over the counter. There is a body called the Commitment of Traders which attempts to monitor these transactions, but market traders are not bound to report to it and its findings are not regarded as being representative.

BOE Securities Gerard Kemp said traders closely guarded their positions on gold, but the producers believed they could change the sentiment about gold. He believed this might be difficult to do.

One of the major depressants of the gold price recently has been sales by central banks of portions of their gold reserves, contributing to the common perception that the metal is no longer a store of wealth. However, Godsell said "the fear of disruption" caused by central bank sales appeared to have gone away.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:55 - ID#25257)
Gold Bugs
A.G. Edwards representative just on CNBC says Gold Bugs are members of a "Cult". Says there is no longer a large demand for silver...and we all know how pitiful gold is.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 11:59 - ID#341227)
I heard that Switzerland to announce date of referendum today...
...specifically, the date of the referendum to allow its citizens to vote on the gold issue. Is that the rumor scaring today's market???

If this is the truth and the reason for gold's malaise today, then just how long can this Switzerland scare tactic be milked by the market?

Moreover, isn't it amusing that, whenever equities are about to have real problems ( down over 100 points ) , the Establishment always puts forth a gold scare tactic in order to ensure that flight of safety remains good old bonds.

At what point does the Pavlovian conditioning of the gold investor end?



(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:00 - ID#350194)
@Flag Sufferers of the World - Will the Flag yet Unfurl? A. Fierlbeck gives Hope!
Flagsters - The speculation that many here now have a love/hate relationship with still is holding out hope. The reason that I and many others got involved was due to their great land holdings near Canada's premiere mining area of Sudbury Ontario. Also at the time they were about to drill a huge 'gravity' anomaly. This hole did not 'hit' and the Flag share price flopped. However Flag has thousands of acres of promising outcroppings ripe for drilling and management has not 'caved in'.
Here is a bulletin e-mail that I just received from one of our Kitco men close to the scene:
"...Now to flag! today the drill is being moved to a spot ( west of Matagamasi
Lake ) where they found a high grad sulfide ( contains 6metals dominated by
platinum/paladium ) 14 feet wide, with the same occurence 50 feet
distance.Peter Giblin insisted that the drilling be started there right
away.The samples are being assayed right now.Watch for news this or next
week.If we have a hit I may join you at the Kitco get together ..."
Great news for all remaining Flagsters ( like myself ) who have held through thick and thin. Hold all tickets!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:07 - ID#339274)
Hanging around 292 support XAU 70.Give it another try long
NEM 19 5/8

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:07 - ID#421269)
@ Zeke
Upon close observation, I see that " GOLD BUGS" are listed as an endangered species. In fact only 165 are known to exist in the world, and that number is said to be shrinking fast.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:08 - ID#334219)
Yes mon ami...I have agreed with you..Harmony is much better buy than Barrick if gold goes to $400..and I will buy it when gold resume its bull.. I've said that many times. But for now, Barrick is safer..cause if gold move to $200 and stay there for a few years...Harmony will lose 80% of its current price...while Barrick will continue to enjoy cash flows and probably end up buying Harmony :: ) . This beaing said, I am not buying Barrick either.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:08 - ID#290456)

LOL - If I WERE to dump all my pitiful collection of gold ( which I have NO intention of doing ) it wouldn't affect the POG even in the 6th decimal place, much less 5 bucks.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:12 - ID#24135)
Sweet sweet sweet !!
for wert ..
I say sweet for following reasons ..
PDG gets resource plus reserves of 35 mill oz for NPV of 320
mill $ .. Thats $9 dollars an oz .. cut off reserve value is
always 50000 Rd/kg ( $274/oz ) . Very little in RSA is open
pitable. Cash costs for south deep forecast at $220/oz..
for extreme comparison Pierina claims 50$/oz ( 100 life of
mine ) .. and as I recall costs 150 $/oz ..
looking at cash costs only ( not average ) and assuming
300 $ gold .. Pierina creats profits of ( 300-50 ) /150 or
250/150 or $1.67 per $ invested .. Wes Areas creates
profits for PDG of ( 300 -220 ) /9 = 80/9 = $8.9 per $
invested. PDG use of shareholder money 8.9/1.67 or FIVE
times better than ABX .. ( all numbers rough and directional
only ) ..
I think PDG shareholders should be happy .. I think ABX
shareholders are slaves of King Munk and deserve what they

Gusto Oro
(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:13 - ID#430260)
I missed the CNBC clip with the A. G. Edwards rep. Did he say why there is no longer a large demand for silver. We already know that Asia is buying a bit less so that's nothing new. Did he say how large his short position is? --Al

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:13 - ID#284255)
Sure thing.
What areas are you interested in;
Gold - Y2k - or alternative info?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:15 - ID#20359)
Mooney, and all...Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...M email me and all...have new email thanks...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:18 - ID#350194)
Toronto Kitcoite Holiday Luncheon Meeting
Any and all who are interested in attending please e-mail me to confirm that you can make it. Mark off Saturday Dec. 12th 1:00 - 4:00 P.M
E-mail me at: to confirm that you will be there.
As per Rhody's post there will be a special gift for all attending so we need to know numbers. ( Also to confirm reservation #'s at the table ) .

"Date: Mon Nov 30 1998 11:48
rhody ( @ Mooney: re Kitco Toronto Meet: I shall be marking the date ) ID#408236:on my calendar. If you can let me know by this Friday, how many are coming, I shall slab up some silver high grade from Cobalt Ontario as
souveniers for the evening.

Also folks - we are expecting surprise Kitcoite attendees from as far away as Concord, New Hampshire and perhaps BillinOregon might be persuaded?, or Tolerant1 or others from New York City?
Talk Soon - Mooney

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:22 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 179.166 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 295.750 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 178.401 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 294.700 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9812 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9250 US Dollars

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:32 - ID#24135)
.. terms of endearment
For CC ..
Mon petite beautiful cabbage .. People who
buy ABX should wear pointy caps .. wide stripes.. and
leg irons.. they should report for duty on Munk's front
lawn .. turn in all their money .. and commence cutting
grass and picking up Dobermann PooPoo.. In return they
will be given enough abx tokens to buy a small bowl of
gruel at Munk's company store.
As I have explained .. there is NO REASON I can think
of to buy ABX other than for the mad desire to give money
to the ABX Board of directors.
.. If one believes that gold will go down .. my little
fuzzy pussycat .. then there is no point to this entire
discussion .. buy neither cheap gold .. nor expensive gold
nor high cost low cost nor medium sized cost gold ..
My sugarplum .. All my comments and ideas are based on the
assumption that gold will go UP .. If I assumed it would
go dowm .. I would be at some other yet to be discovered site.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:52 - ID#344389)
Will $290 Hold
Given the overall commodity weakness,
especially oil, it seems there is some
justification for the gold price drop.
The stock indexes should be hit hard
as well if gold breaks $290 and the CRB

(Mon Nov 30 1998 12:57 - ID#341227)
@DISNEY...regarding your assessment of ABX...
I loved it! Had me rolling on the floor.



PH in LA
(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:09 - ID#225408)

Please contact me at:

with your e-mail address for an off-line communication.


PH* ( in LA ) *

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:19 - ID#317193)
Primarily alternate info on power generation. No one knows what Jan.2000 will bring so I really have given up on reading pro or con until next summer. When you live in Nebraska you ought to have some of all the g's anyway. I'm doing cheapo things now just to be on the safe side. Most expensive thing so far was a refurbished 1500 watt inverter to use with a few batteries. Think I'll sell the generator I bought last February in Dec. of '99...never been used and is a gas hog.

Thanks again for your posts.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:22 - ID#246224)
Potemkin Village #1 - Gold "is just another commodity"
"And over here we have the very productive and selfless bakery staff ..", said the tour guide.


Gold is a monetary metal with little use as a commondity other than jewelry ( a way of saving in certain cultures ) and electronics. The total mine production is dwarfed by the amount of gold held by Central Banks as monetary reserves, typically increasing above ground stocks of held metal by approximately 2% per year, more or less.

Total mine and reclaimation yeilds approximately 2500 tonnes per year as input to markets. Total yearly turnover of gold at the LBMA clearing house is approximately 225,000 tonnes ( for 'reasons yet unknown' to us all here ;- ) ) .


"and over here we have a new and productive steel mill. This was bought by the workers from their contributions to better the lot of the collective.", he said with a sweeping gesture.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:23 - ID#404312)
gold stocks

Once again I ask the question: Why are you people buying gold stocks and not bullion or coins? Are you waiting for someone else to buy the stuff and make your paper rise in value?

Seems to me that the price will rise when even gold derivatives like mining stocks lose their luster. What would happen if all that money going into gold diggers went into gold? Aren't stock buyers actually admitting that gold is dead as an investment?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:24 - ID#246224)
You have less than 20 working days to secure your preparations for Y2K ..
.. before the herd begins to wake up.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:25 - ID#334219)
No need to be condescending with me...mon ami. I've been studying gold stocks since the 1971-1980 bull. Acting and thinking like if gold could not go to $200 is a risky proposition. As you said, you base your comments on gold moving up now. It is your choice..and you are taking the risks.

As for Barrick, I guess we will continue to disagree.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:29 - ID#288466)
Speaking only for myself, of course......recent history indicates that I'm about as stupid as a box of rocks for buying gold stocks rather than the metal.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance, however.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:31 - ID#288466)
See any connections here to internet stocks?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:33 - ID#246224)
The Media Outlets are part and parcel of ..
.. the government attempt to retain control of, and to direct, the flow of the people's actions in response to a real understanding of Y2K and its necessary impact on us all.

The recent media drum beat is orchestrated by the Executive Branch with full complicity on the part of the heads of those organizations. They are designed to imobilize people, not to motivate them to action. The government recognizes that there is no significant solution to this problem. They recognize that the best they can do is to forestall the chaos which will begin NO LATER THAN the FIRST QUARTER 1999.

They have preparations under way for their own concerns and do not wish to have to compete with and put down the efforts of ordinary folks to prepare until the very last minute. The longer they can keep the masses imobilized the more they can draw out of the systems in preparation.

Just as gold is 'spun' into a commodity of dismal performance just before the world sinks into the abyss of financial chaos, so 'preparation' or any other activities are 'spun' into an 'overreaction' on the part of extremists. "Don't go there; to gold or to prepare. Sit there until we tell you to move."

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:41 - ID#350288)

Some of us are buying bullion. I am 31 and have been buying maples for the last 3 years. I now have well over half my monies in the real deal. I still hold stocks ( gold stocks ) for two reasons though. 1. Their potential to soar, and 2. I could be wrong. After all I have been wrong for the last 3 years in anticipating a gold bull.
Just tuning in today - what caused the $5.00 drop in POG?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:43 - ID#43460)
re generators
If I wanted something that shook and rattled, smoked and stunk up the neighborhood, was loud, noisy and difficult to get started I would invite over my mother in law.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:43 - ID#317193)
Allen(USA)...don't think so...
The herd will wait until it is way to late to prepare...and they may be correct to do nothing.

A few concerned people I know, primarily computer folk, plan to withdraw funds from the bank in December of '99. Like that would do any good! Perhaps the worst thing about Y2k will be the fear about this time next year.

Heck, if I did not have kids, I might not do much. As it is, I'll be ready just in case. Freeze dried will keep until I'm 65 so it will get eaten one way or the other.

Now about that AK-47...never mind ...this is a gold site. ( thanks brother oris )


(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:50 - ID#234182)
John Disney SWEET
Thanks John; news of this purchase is ( was ) hard to track down this am regards

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:50 - ID#246224)
What you will need before the end of this year ..
.. if you wish to avoid the crowds and government interference.

Food consisting of dry beans ( 30% ) , wheat ( 30% ) and corn ( 40% ) . Oil ( olive, soy, canola, sunflower ) , sugar, salt and pepper ( as well as other herbs and spices ) . Powdered milk. Rice and pasta. Vitamins. Canned meats. Some canned fruits and vegitables. Plan on the necessity of a 2500 calorie diet per day for each full grown adult. More powdered milk if you have kids. Begin to gather recipes which can be prepared without alot of modern kitchen ( electric ) technology and over use of heat.

You will need a propane camp stove ( with piezo electric starter ) , a rig to hook up a 20# propane cylinder, yet keeping the cylinder outside. Have 5 to 10 20# cylinders ( outside, under lock and key ) . I suggest inexpensive stainless steel cookware .. it will last a very long time in hard use and remain in good condition. Have dry chlorine ( sodium or clacium hypochlorite ) in small plastic containers to use for purifying water. Plastic containers for carrying water. Green house plastic for general use and garden use.

You will need polypropylene long johns, Polartec middle layer garments and light weight wind breaker outer garments. Hats and gloves. Get used to the idea that you will be dressed warmly ALL of the time ( house will be cold ) . You will want to accumulate some dry soap concentrate.

You will need barter items and cash/coins.

Prepare to look as ragged as your neighbors to avoid attention.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:55 - ID#339274)
I like NEM ,eventhough it is only paper : ) we are having a little rise

(Mon Nov 30 1998 13:55 - ID#257312)
Mexico, Brazil Off Sharply

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:00 - ID#220325)
Reify Thanks for your observations on the charts
Good trading

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:05 - ID#404312)

Well, according to dingbat media analysis, gold dropped 5.00 because of the sharp rise in the dollar..uh..wait, no, it's because of the sharp drop in oil prices which means there will be more money to by other stuff like gold..uh..wait no, it's because the stock market is dropping and people are rushing to a safe haven like g..uh..wait

really now, it's because a bunch of computers and their serfs drew some lines on a chart and when the bottom line representing a trend intersected with a vertical line representing the day's trading range, the serfs dutifully called the exhange and told them gold should be 5.00 lower.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:05 - ID#339274)
sold at the opening and I get it back for .71.Crazy world

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:07 - ID#246224)
Why the herd will wake up in the first quarter 1999.
Jo Anne Effect disrupts systems 1/1/1999.

All significant large banks will slip their 'fixed by 12/31/1999' schedules ( as BankBoston has done already ) .

FY2000 kicks in for significant retailers 2/1/1999.

FY2000 kicks in for Japan, Canada and State of New York 4/1/1999.


Reasons why we know that the US government is managing this and is expecting to move on the populous by Q1'1999:

Bennet has expressed his expectation of 'emergency legislation and 'crew' in Q1.

US government has set obviously unrealistic goal of all fixes on Federal critical systems in place by 3/31/1999. This indicates to us that they know

1 ) There is no way to fix this stuff in that time frame.

2 ) They are disingenuosly throwing this date out into the media to keep people from thinking about things until other systems begin to fail.

Not one percent of the US public is preparing now. If it is 1/10th of a percent I would be incredibly surprised. When 1% turn to buy their preparation for 3 months from local suppliers ( almost all the preparedness companies are completely overwhelmed ) then this will increase demand by 100% and more for items people often do not buy much of ( dry beans, etc ) . Shelves will go bare and restocking will vanish overnight as word spreads.

Remember, we are wired by phone and the 'net. When the grandma's or the world reach for the phone to tell their friends and family that the shelves were bare .. then you will NEVER have another chance to prepare.

All it takes is the grandma's waking up. And they are alot more aware and willing to be aware then people give credit for. They will start the runs, not Yuppies.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:12 - ID#246224)
Gold is lower because the down trendline was about to be breached.
This would have started programatic trading to go long and the bull would have taken stride. Not to be allowed. So it was driven down. Watch for this to be the case. Gold's price will be knocked down whenever it reaches to cross above the 50/200 day moving averages. Like clock work. Greenspan and his ilk know the power of gold as his July 24th testimony so indicates. "Central Banks stand ready to lower the price of gold if it starts to rise." -AG

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:16 - ID#24135)
Ah pepe le pew .. eez
so sad .. meestair CCCC..
zat you arre angree wiz heem..
but we nevair disagree mah leetle
watairmelon ball .. I zought zat
you were not goING to buy zee nastee
ABX so called gold mining company
Anyway .. Zat eez what you said ..
was Ah wrrong again ???

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:16 - ID#219363)
Anybody out there have any good business ideas ? You guys are investors, what sort of companies would you back w/ your money, I mean, what business idea would be big enough to get your blood stirring, to get you excited. Another cell phone company, so what. Another way of packaging up crackers and cheese, so what. What new innovative thingy would really get you guys to sit up and take notice ? What have you always wished for, what capability do you wish you had that isn't out there. Is there a market for putting small ( less than 300lb ) objects into earth orbit ? Is there a market for dwellings at the bottom of the ocean ? I know it sounds like a strange question, but I'm really interested in what sort of products would get your attention in this time of everyday technological magic.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:20 - ID#269469)
y2k market comment

Over the holiday weekend 2 relatives ( both non-technical, one retired ) on separate occasions asked me what I thought about y2k, and BOTH mentioned "getting out of the stock market before everyone else does". A pattern?

The panic will be worse than the reality.

And yes, one even asked about gold.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:25 - ID#288466)
Here are a couple more ideas of things for your list to start buying now or soon ( Of course the Cassandra Project has a good general check list to follow )

Solar cookers ( possibly a great resource, depending on where you live )

Containers for gasoline, kerosine, and water ( I am beginning to buy these now - but not in quantities which might attract interest )

Firewood, wood-burning or kerosene-burning stoves, etc. ( I will buy these next spring when no one is thinking about home heating )

Gas grills and styrofoam coolers ( these should be on sale now or just after Christmas - they have pretty much mothballed them in stores around me )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:29 - ID#391172)
Don't move without permission....strict curfews will be enforced...

Thats the first squeak the gov authority will come up with to establish control.

About that time or before things change alot how-a-bout some of those cheap old live-aboards taking up space at 2nd class marina's here and there? That would be my take on getting away from it all and taking tons with me. Don't forget to use gold for ballast.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:32 - ID#339274)
March Bonds
Hitting resistance 130,gold at 292.Which way,we'll see

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:34 - ID#288466)
Allen (USA)
BTW - if you have a generator set, it is quite easy to fabricate a small cooker oven which is heated by the engine exhaust ... just a thought.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:36 - ID#350288)
Y2K - uh daa

At turkey dinner my sister told me to stop talking to our father about y2k. She said," you know they have been working on that for the last 10 years, I am sure they fixed it by now". I had no rebuttle as I was blown away by her ignorance.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:41 - ID#147201)
Envy re your 14:16
I have something that is retail and internet. I'm waiting for my lawyer to get me some protection. Best to email- I know I have yours, but it is a few thousand back down the line. I'll explain, Charlie

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:50 - ID#288466)
Are you looking for pie-in-the-sky stuff, or what?

ZPE ( zero point energy ) motors
Universal translators
Gold-from-the-sea extractors
Antigravity devices
Weather control systems

and on and on....

lefty kiwi
(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:50 - ID#32176)
to John Disney
Josh is no longer the best loose forward in the world
Booby Skinstat .......what a player.... a modern day Ian Kirkpatrick with the speed of a threequarter and the hands of a flyhalf .
Probably the worlds greatest player .

Gold .... in the box until Euro start methinks ... oh well ...maybe I will buy some more ,

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:50 - ID#316256)
New Business
Envy: The type of business that has me thinking is offshore financial services, preferrably the Caribean. I have been looking for some sort of "turn-key" operation where you give them your money and in return you get:

1. A trust account with a trust agent who I hardly ever talk to.
2. The trust account sets up a on-line brokerage account and gives me access to trade it.
3. A VISA debit card to get the money if I want to spend some of it.
4. All this for very low fees.
5. Internet access to my trust account to check its status.

I think a business that can provide this will do well.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:51 - ID#219363)
I sent ya some email.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:54 - ID#45173)
Confidence is a fleeting emotion, I guess. Not only are Brazil and Mexico down, Europe's looking red and HK took a beating last night. It's been a few months since we've seen this kind of world market negativity. Last time it presaged some bad hedge fund news. Does the market perhaps hear the approach of the other wall of the storm that Gollum's been talking about? Also seems to follow a period of divergence in the US indexes, NASDAQ and S&P up with the DOW down, for example.

Are we in for a repeat of July/August? We shall see.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 14:58 - ID#219363)
That's a good business idea. I've seen a few companies out there that do off-shore incorporation in Belize and that type of thing, and they can set up a trust account and give you off-shore banking and credit cards, but I'm sure someone could do better than they do currently. Off-shore is a big deal and I think there could be a market for it if it was packaged up in the right way. So many of the services I've seen advertised on the net for off-shore make it sound like you're doing something that isn't totally legit, which of course cuts down on your potential customer base a lot. Maybe if it was just marketed as the "multi-national corporation's big secret" or something like that it might do better. Certainly better access to the account across the Internet would be a big selling point as nobody wants to go to the hassle of sending US mail to a trust company to express their desires, it just takes too friggin long. Better packaging of services with up-front pricing probably wouldn't hurt anything either, something like this company here that does incorporation of businesses in the states ( I think they do a little bit of off-shore incorporation too ) . It says right up front, you pay X, you'll get Y.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:05 - ID#219363)
Nah, nothing like that. I mean, the ideas are certainly big enough, but they all require that some new bit of science yield currently unknown information about the Universe, something that you can't exactly count on when you're putting a business plan together. More interested in ideas that just require work, bringing together people, ideas, and resources to deliver a widget or service to the customer that they'll pay for. Now, if you know something about anti-gravity that I haven't read and you're convinced that it can be applied ( technology is, after all, applied science ) , then I'd be real interested in hearing about it. *grin*. Certainly finding people who have figured out a new mystery of the Universe and applying that information to deliver products and services is good business, leading-edge business even. Examples like putting smaller than 300lb objects into earth orbit require capital and a good plan, they don't need any new discovery about the way the world works. You just have to bring together all the stuff that needs to be brought together to make it happen ( money, people, resources ) , and it does.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:11 - ID#288466)
Just kidding about all that stuff, but any of those ( if/when developed ) would be businesses to end all businesses. BTW there's some very interesting anti-grav research going can read about some of it at

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:13 - ID#39857)
dont fasten your seatbelts,they are fastened, tighten them.......

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:23 - ID#45173)
I love the years-before-their-time technologies. As you know, the money is in the mundane. Shave 70% off of purchasing costs for a medium sized company by figuring out how can purchase securely using the 'net ( SupplyWorks ) . Build a cheap video camera/web server with a an ethernet connector on it that you can stick on top of every K-Mart cash register or highway toll booth ( ) .

Got one of these kinds of things in mind? I bet you've learned about some unsolved customer problems over the years.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:30 - ID#389387)
@Envy - I like the gold-from-sea idea.
Step 1: Obtain Rhodococcus bacteria used for desulfurization of petroleum based products.
Step 2: Obtain DNA samples from Warren Buffet and Alan Greenspan.
Step 3: Differentiate the gold-bug from anti-gold-bug isolates from DNA.
Step 4: Recombinate gold-bug isolate into Rhodococcus DNA.
Step 5: Fire up your pocket Polymerase Chain Reaction ( PCR ) and crank out trillions of these suckers an hour.
Step 6: Set up holding/extraction company in off-shore tax-free islands.
Step 7: Sit back and have a Margarita.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:32 - ID#252150)
Analysts@What a bunch of hopeless jerks. The Lehman clown upgraded
Intel this morn AFTER IT'S UP AROUND 65% in 2 months. My tech shorts down nicely this morn, but would probably be down a lot more if it was'nt for clueless, unimaginative, unethical, as*holes like this Lehman turkey.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:34 - ID#262242)
Thank you for the invite to Toronto for the Kitco gathering. I would like to come, and would enjoy meeting others but we just returned ( last night ) from two weeks in Salt Lake City. We will be in Pheonix Ariz. Friday but this is only for one day ( a funeral ) .

We had a good time, met a lot of people, no Kitcoites but nice just the same. The traffic there is about the worst I have ever seen. They are preparing for the winter olympics and they shut down some of the freeways at night and there are a lot of detours.

Ate the best price rib ever at a resturant in Ogden the Timbermine. Will dine there the next time we are in the area.

We will be home for the holidays but will be in New Orleans the 20th to 25th of January. If there are any Kitcoites in the area, we would enjoy having a cup of coffee with you.

We were in Indiana and Ohio last month and the people we spoke to about Y2K would not believe it. The general attitude was "the government will not let it happen". Maybe the spot on 60 minutes last night will make people more aware of the problem.

Reify, I got your E-Mails, but I could not answer them. Tolerant1 I also received yours but again, could not answer. Sorry to hear about your problems, we did pray for you, we hope you are feeling better. I am going to check into AT&T worldnet.

Hello to all my Kitco friends. God bless you all


(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:35 - ID#45173)
Dow 9146.16 -186.92 (-2.00%)
Where's them dipsters?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:39 - ID#219363)
Yep, agreed. So many widgets are made because they're nifty without ever thinking about whether anyone is going to buy it or not *grin*. Better to start with what the customer wants and work forwards to how to solve the problem. But that's just it, what do people want that they haven't already got ? and what are they going to pay for it if you give it to them ? It's an art, not at science, though I'm sure there is more science to it than I'm aware of.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:40 - ID#252150)
I tried to be an optomistic GB & bought PDG Fri hoping for a bounce, but got
stopped out this morn. I've been medium term negative on POG for last 2 yrs & will not even consider buying another AU stock unless we at least test old lows.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:41 - ID#24135)
I am so easily assimilated ..
for lefty kiwi ..
it's some side .. skinstead can really accellerate ..
and from the Cape.. but honiball is outstanding defensively
and very deceptive .. they play much better when honiball is
in .. keep your eye on him .. van der westheisen is not
popular in the Cape.. ( he captains the transvaal side which
beat us in final ) .. and transvalers are regarded in the cape
as barely human .. "be kind to animals .. hug a transvaler".
nevertheless he's good too..

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:42 - ID#24135)
I am so easily assimilated ..
for lefty kiwi ..
it's some side .. skinstead can really accellerate ..
and from the Cape.. but honiball is outstanding defensively
and very deceptive .. they play much better when honiball is
in .. keep your eye on him .. van der westheisen is not
popular in the Cape.. ( he captains the transvaal side which
beat us in final ) .. and transvalers are regarded in the cape
as barely human .. "be kind to animals .. hug a transvaler".
nevertheless he's good too..

(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:43 - ID#350288)

Nice to see one of my dogs beat the street, even if it did nothing for them. Grerf came in wih +.06 vs expected .00. Down another 2% today on top of down 6% last week.

John Disney
(Mon Nov 30 1998 15:45 - ID#24135)
I give up ..
sorry double post ..
mouse sticky .. fingers sticky..
.. kitco sticky ..
.. sticky wicket ..
.. good night ..

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:00 - ID#252150)
Looks like my call on Sat. for a 200 pt down day on Dow was 14 pts optomistic
400 more to go down for the week.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:09 - ID#219363)
Where now ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:18 - ID#389387)
Man what is that psssssssssssssssssst sound I hear?
Could be massive deflation?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:21 - ID#275170)
I coppied this from somewhere over the weekend and sent it to a friend.

Only Yesterday: Is Internet Stock Craze Tulipmania All Over Again?

Today's Market Commentary

November 26, 1998 -- In his 1841 book, Extraordinary Popular
Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,
Charles MacKay describes several investment schemes gone awry,
including Tulipmania, the Dutch
flower frenzy that redefined European garden styles while making
and breaking huge fortunes ( for more
info, go to the Website of Barnes and Noble ) . Historians now refer
to Tulipmania as a "misguided
enthusiasm" of the past since after the great fortunes were made on
rising tulip prices in Holland, the
subsequent collapse of the market threatened Holland's very

In fact, "post bubble-burst" economy is perhaps the single best way
to describe the Japanese economy of
the 1990s. In the decade prior, speculators drove Japanese stock
and real estate prices through the roof
and on toward valuation levels not seen hence. Once again, the
ensuing collapse in the wake of this
modern version of popular delusion and the madness of crowds
threatens the second-largest world
economy and renders its government virtually helpless to restore
the structure of its financial system.

There are many other historic instances of manias, including the
infamous near-vertical stock market
advance of the late 1920s of which author Frederick Lewis Allen
writes in his 1931 account, "Only
Yesterday," the kind of investor psychology that prevailed after
every correction:

"But had the bull market collapsed? On June 13 it
appeared to have regained its
balance...A few thousand traders had been shaken out, a
few big fortunes had been lost, a
great many pretty paper profits had vanished, but the Big
Bull Market was still young....

"...The lesson was plain: the public simply would not be
shaken out of the market by
anything short of major disaster."

Today, we find the U.S. stock market soaring yet again after this
year's sharp decline that lopped 40% to
60% off the top of the average NYSE and NASDAQ stock. At the
cutting edge of investor speculation
during this month's advance are internet stocks, which have soared
to levels that, seemingly, no other
stock has gone before. But is that really true? Again we find
precedent for such feverish speculation in
"Only Yesterday:"

"All the old markers by which the price of a promising
common stock could be measured
had long since been passed; if a stock once valued at 100
went to 300, what on earth was to
prevent it from sailing on to 400? And why not ride with
it for fifty or a hundred points, with
Easy Street at the end of the journey?"

Today's why-not-ride-it-for-fifty-or-a-hundred-point stocks are big
name Internet stocks such as
Netscape,, Ebay, and Yahoo. These stocks have simply
gone crazy, with Ebay, for example,
coming out as an Initial Public Offering only three months ago at
25 1/4 but hitting a new high this month at
an eye-popping 234 1/8. Similar stories can be found in other
internet stocks., Inc. carries a
52-week low of 24 11/16 and a record high established this past
week at a whopping 233 1/8. Yahoo--an
Internet search engine--has performed similar acrobatic feats.

The most frightening part of all of this, along with its historic
1929 parallels that occurred in Frederick
Allen's eyes only yesterday, is that these stocks have either never
produced a profit or have only managed
to eke out a small profit for one quarter. has lost
money every quarter since it emerged, and
in fact its losses have accelerated to $0.90 per share in the
quarter ending September 30, 1998. Yahoo
Inc. has lost money every quarter except the first and third
quarters of this year, where it registered
earnings of $0.05 and $0.015 per share respectively but mingled
with a $0.41 per-share loss in the
second quarter--its largest quarterly loss yet. Netscape has
managed virtual breakeven this year after a
whopping $1.02 per-share loss in the fourth quarter of 1997.

Yet these stocks have been routinely bid up 20% to 40% in a single
day recently. Moreover,the Wall
Street Journal reported Wednesday that insiders at companies that
do business on the Internet have
been selling shares, taking advantage of their "logic-defying
ascent." To underscore this point, the WSJ
also reports that these insiders were willing to hold onto these
stocks throughout this summer's volatile
plunge, but now there is a marked change in their behavior.
Insiders typically sell when they feel their stock
is fully valued or overvalued, and analysts typically do not
attempt to go contrary to insiders since they tend
to be correct.

Although investors are arguably betting on the future--a proxy on
the future success of the many
companies on the Internet that have yet to emerge, in much the same
way one might have been on the
future of electricity or the assembly line in the 1920s by buying
the electric and auto companies then
available--it is difficult to justify the apparent discounting of
the "hereafter," as Alan Greenspan recently
described the U.S. stock market before its 1997 and 1998 plunges,
by sending today's Internet stocks to
above $200 a share.

"From a fundamental analysis standpoint," said Bill Burhnam,
electronic-commerce analyst at Credit
Suisse First Boston Corp. in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, "it's
a baffling trend, and it's indicative a
lot of [investors] don't know what they're doing."

Intensely emotional speculation has marked the impending top of
many an investment bull market, and it
is possible that the Internet craze is the modern-day version of
Holland's Tulipmania nearly four centuries
ago. In most manias, Frederick Allen's observation is ostensibly
proven before the whole thing collapses.
Again describing the 1929 bull market, Allen says:

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:23 - ID#252391)
To James
Good call on your 200 point down Monday. Given the way the S&P futures closed another 400 points down for the week seems quite reasonable. Worry you that somebody agrees with your forecast.??

At 8800 I think I'll be buying through mutual funds. What about you?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:25 - ID#369352)
Looks like a massive Double Top on the DOW! I didn't see any buying coming in here...must have been that the dipsters spent all of their money on Turkeys. Noticed that Yahoo lost about a Billion dollars in Market cap today...Double top for that out belooooooooow. Banks are looking particularly weak in here...even with the runup in the last month and 3 rate cuts, they can't seem to get back to the 920 level on the BKX...closed at 788 today -26 or so. I don't know...if we are going to get to 12,000 like all the big analysts are saying, they are going to have to start putting up some of their own money, not just joe sixpack....or maybe Gollum was sitting on those down levers too hard!!! Gollum, get out of the attic and pull those levers in the basement on Gold will you please!!!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:37 - ID#290456)

Hmmmmm...we need to get your R-DNA idea together with some filter feeders ( like sponges ) and by Jove, I think we have it!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:44 - ID#389387)
As in welfare recipients or lawyers? % )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:45 - ID#219363)
I don't think there are any real bears left, Greenspan must have killed them all. That was a nice drop though, but will it continue ? I don't think anyone is expecting it to, maybe that's all it'll take to make it happen. Certainly if James' 400 more points down happened that would put the fear back into a few people's hearts.

EZ Believer
(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:46 - ID#173262)
Mapleman....GRERF Worse things could happen to us than a + earnings suprise!
GRE has been blanketed by negative stormclouds recently ( punn intended ) . I think it is way oversold and have been accumulating
accordingly. POG held it down today, but like all PM's patience is

(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:50 - ID#389387)
@Silverbaron - Here are the "original" gold bug sites


(Mon Nov 30 1998 16:56 - ID#45173)
Price of Internet tulips
Will drop like a rock when
1 ) A viable competitor to Yahoo! shows up and everyone realizes that the barriers to entry are low
2 ) everyone realizes that even in cases where massive brand building creates loyalty that forms a real barrier to entry, there's a very limited profit opportunity for many of these companies under the current business model -- revenue from advertising -- and no new business model is on the horizon.

When will this happen? When you least expect it.

Too bad. Makes for the short opporunity of a lifetime.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:04 - ID#45173)
There's a lot of fear out there worldwide. Ain't just the US markets that are soft. My sense is that there was general euphoria that AG and the IMF pulled us out of the jaws of death but now many are coming to realize that those jaws are still there, snapping away below. Asia will get worse before it gets better. Latin America will get worse before it gets better. The USA will get worse before it gets better. Duh.

Gold coin ads on TV in Manhattan? The very slightest nudge will send this big fat psychotic market into a massive frenzy of selling. Awfully quiet in Iraq, no? The banks have been keeping their heads down, too. What if the yen drops 25% in the next four weeks?

Anyone still in this market is a nut.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:04 - ID#256365)
saw gcz8 asking 305 bid 292.5 ???

at 16:00:10 a price of 305.0 was asked for gold with a size of 11

at the same time the bid was 292.0 size 1

I don't know what exchange this is on, it has a symbole of g, and before close NY the symbols were w so I presume w = comex? g = Austrailia?

I'm looking at the delayed live quotes at

other days I have noticed that when the market opens in austrailia there are anomolous bids or asks and I have gotten a vauge feeling that they signal some sort of trend.

Am I looking at ghosts or is there something real here?

at 16:15:13 ask was 292.5 size 1

My understanding is fuzzy but developing, would producers who have sold futures contracts when the price of the nearest was up around 297 want to buy back futures contracts that they may have sold at other times for this lower 293 price? Did some very optimistic soul just place a sell limit order?

also, gollum... levers... I thought he was jokeing... I don't think I'm going to trade on days when gollum claims he is messing with the levers.

they seem to work!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:04 - ID#252150)
Jims@If you agree, then I take it all back--just kidding. I won't get overconfident
because of PPT. I knew they would try to talk the mkts down--but just how far is the big question. Did you notice the talk about increasing margin rates.
There are still a lot of desperate MF Mgrs out ther who may try to do something heroic/stupid to save their jobs, but then there also some who will be trying to save their year end bonuses. It will be a real tug of war. If they did'nt manipulate the earnings so blatantly, then I think we could collapse back to at least 7400 by mid Jan.
I still think there is another disaster lurking out there, so there is always the chance that AG could ease again in Dec. But if he did, then even the diehard bulls would have to admit that the CBs are losing control. Of course, they could also try to put on a positive spin.
I'm short & would'nt go long in this mkt even at 8000, but would probably cover some shorts around there.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:06 - ID#219363)
Certainly anyone short the Internet stocks today made out as they seem to have been pounded. Absolutely no value what-so-ever there, except maybe the value of gaining some other investor's money in the pyramid scheme of the decade. Still expect them to rebound back up there at some point before crashing into the cellar - there are folks out there who will see this as a time to buy after some of these tulips were hammered 50 percent today.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:12 - ID#219363)
Interest Rates Fall in T-Bill Sale
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Interest rates on short-term Treasury securities fell in Monday's auction. The Treasury Department sold $8 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 4.435 percent, down from 4.450 percent last week. An additional $8 billion was sold in six-month bills at a rate of 4.410 percent, down from 4.430 percent.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:17 - ID#219363)
Asian Woes Hitting Harder at U.S.
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The U.S. economy is steaming ahead despite the global economic crisis, but that's small comfort to steel workers in Pittsburgh or apple growers in Washington state. The steel industry is pounding on the government's door, warning that thousands of jobs are threatened by a surge of low-cost foreign imports into the country. Apple growers are close behind. And as Asia's crisis crashes harder against American shores, computer chip makers, machine tool companies, textile manufacturers and automakers could all join in filing "dumping" complaints and seeking protective tariffs. "When steel takes a hit, entire towns feel the pain," the companies and their union proclaim in recent full-page newspaper ads. They want the government to slap penalty tariffs of 30 percent to 200 percent on certain types of foreign steel. The growing list of industries fretting about other nations selling their products in America's huge market at unfairly low prices is posing a political problem for the Clinton administration, caught between New Democrat support for free trade and traditional alliances with labor unions.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:18 - ID#428232)
EJ (Envy)......

The "Ghost" of the US$ and its' inherent debt will, most certainly, not disappear overhight.

I am always remembered of the Monty Python more mint...... and*t hits the fan all over the place.

The printing of US$ at 16% increase per year, with "no" inflation..... well it's akin to more mint !!!!!

One more more sounds like a Clinton campaign ad.... one more mint........



(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:18 - ID#339274)
An upday tomorrow.Bought back my Arz that was sold at the opening
.The juniors got truly hammered,being stellar perfomers last week.
I like those days : )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:22 - ID#402236)
You know it's rough out there when Cyclist starts selling his ARZ!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:24 - ID#219363)
Certainly does feel like the spectre of death is breathing on equity investor's necks, but they seem completely unwilling to turn around and confront the beast, I guess what you can't see won't hurt you. Article after article about deflationary forces crashing into the US, steel below, pigs, food, discounts from retailers at stores, cheap gas, etc, etc. It's spread now into the related industries, producers of farm equipment, oil drilling equipment, fiancial services, etc, and it's likely to spread further into other industries as a result. Job layoffs are rising as well. None of this seems to help my short position. *grin*.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:24 - ID#45173)
Greenstone Gold
Just one little mint.

It's whaaaahfah thin.


Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:29 - ID#428232)
John Disney and Lefty Kiwi............STRUTH.....

If you are going to talk about RUGBY, lets talk about a REAL TEAM.....


Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:30 - ID#428232)
You got it !!!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:31 - ID#45173)
The problem is that cheap commodities are helping most of the economy. Cheap oil is like a giant consumer and corporate tax cut. Unlike the 1930s, few Americans work in commodity-related markets. A well diversified economy is supposed to be in recession in one place while it's booming in another. Thus the end of the systemic business cycle. But, the world deflation is more serious. The Global Economy party is officially over when the debt for goods deal is called off by either US because Asia imports are politically untenable or by exporters who need money tied up in US Treasuries to fulfill their own dire, short term political ends.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:32 - ID#219363)
Japan Housing Starts Fall Again
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's housing starts fell 12.9 percent in October from October 1997, the 22nd year-over-year decline in a row, the Construction Ministry said Monday.
It's not dead, it's resting.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:33 - ID#339274)
It pained me dearly I had to sell my two ponies ARZ&QTR in the morning
and to have to buy them back in the afternoon when nobody
wanted them.Well I feel that I supplied liquidity as a good deed.: )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:33 - ID#219363)
Volvo To Cut 5,300 Jobs Worldwide
STOCKHOLM, Sweden ( AP ) -- Swedish automaker AB Volvo plans to reduce its worldwide work force by 5,300, or about 7 percent.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:38 - ID#275170)
Bubble Talk!!! Notice the last paragraph! Tulips anyone!!! From cbs.marketwatch

Electronic commerce and search engine stocks were among those hit hardest, with many suffering double-digit percentage setbacks. The stocks ran up rapidly in recent days amid optimism about a blockbuster holiday sales season. See Market Snapshot. The Goldman Sachs Internet Index slipped 8.8 percent.

Still, some market watchers remained optimistic.

"We're just seeing the Internets start to take a breather," said Arnie Owen, managing director of equities at Cruttenden Roth.

"Everybody keeps talking about their valuations, but you're talking about the future, not the past. Internet commerce is growing and it's probably a heck of a lot bigger now than anybody thought it would be coming into December 1998."

Among e-commerce shares, online auctioneer Onsale ( ONSL ) plunged 36 1/8, or 37 percent, to close at 61 1/2; shares of eBay ( EBAY ) dropped 20 3/8 to close at 197 5/8; Books-a-Million ( BAMM ) was down 9 7/16, or 24.2 percent, closing at 29 1/2; ( EGGS ) slid 6 1/8, or 19 percent, to 25 1/2; Cyberian Outpost ( COOL ) fell 7 5/8 to 25 1/2; ( BYND ) slid 7 5/16, or 25 percent, to close at 21 3/4. Shares of C-NET ( CNWK ) fell 1 3/16 to 53 1/16..

Breaking NewsU.S. stocks hit in Net attackTech stocks hit as Net shares slumpDeutsche Bank to buy Bankers TrustSharper Imagejumps on sales, netMany stocks log phenomenal gains

Among other Internet movers, Yahoo! ( YHOO ) fell 24 15/16to close at 192; Infoseek ( SEEK ) slid 1 15/16 to 34 1/16; America Online ( AOL ) fell 7 1/4 to close at 87 5/8; ( AMZN ) dropped 24 5/8 to 129;Netscape ( NSCP ) fell 2 15/16 to 37; shares of Excite ( XCIT ) were down 4 3/16, closing at 48 15/16.

"My best guess is that they renew their charge soon," said Owen. "I'm not seeing a plethora of selling. I just think some of the buying is drying up.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:40 - ID#254321)
Dow: Double top -- or Head and shoulders?
Trader Vic: Can we tell these apart? I have learned the hard way not to get in front of a Bull market, even when there seems to be no reason for it.

Next year, however -- the sunspot pattern will peak ( markets tend to drop statistically ) , y2k anxieties ( perceived or real ) will stir things up, and deflationary forces may increase some more in the USA. And -- criminal charges against others in the Clinton crowd -- even if impeachment fails. Kenneth Starr will be active another 2 years if WJC fails to step down.

My guess is a massive head and shoulders.

But -- my advice is worth just what you paid for it!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:42 - ID#219363)
That could be. I think there are more things that could take it down than foreign folks taking their toys and going home or the US slamming the door closed on imports. Another thing that could wreck it for Japan is for Brazil and/or the US to drop their currencies as well, or for the US consumer to stop spending, as that would destroy Japan's export market and send us back into the spiral. The only thing Japan has going for it is that it has a market for it's goods right now. The US has essentially jammed cash into the system to increase the domestic economy while exports drop off a cliff, I suppose in the hope that it'll all even out in the end. Will it ? I wouldn't bet the farm. Brazil could still devalue, shutting the door on US exports to that country and making itself more competitive w/ other world exporters. Any way they tinker with it, no matter what variable you fiddle with, it still amounts to a drop in world economic activity.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:49 - ID#433242)
Gold is Dead!
Wake up Morons, Gold is Dead! Get a life!!!!!!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:50 - ID#219363)
Audit Finds Flaws in IRS Security
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The Internal Revenue Service used unarmed bicycle couriers to transport millions of dollars in taxpayer checks and hired employees for sensitive positions before completing their background checks, according to an audit released Monday. IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti said he "generally agreed" with results of the audit by the congressional General Accounting Office but added that the IRS is already taking steps to shore up several security weaknesses.

Got gold ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:52 - ID#290456)

Thanks for the info on gold-from-the-sea - very interesting & something I should probably pay more attention to, as it touches on some of my areas of interest/experience.

I just picked up your earlier comment about the sponges...LOL!

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:53 - ID#428232)
Ex-Prime Minister Keating......

...ends 23 years union with wife.....

He has a "predilection" for young men........dearie me......

"Hello" Sailor.....

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:55 - ID#212323)
Yaaaawn!...and (S-T-R-E-T-C-H----)
" 17:49 GeoGeoff ( Gold is Dead! ) ID#433242:
Wake up Morons, Gold is Dead! Get a life!!!!!!"

Soooo...I've been watering it and changing it's litterbox all for naught? I guess that explains why it never comes when I call.

Thanks for that on-the-spot report, Geoff...

( some people's kids... )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:56 - ID#254321)
Another Bearish thought -- an Internet stock upset?
All: Congress is considering legislating a 'long distance' charge on internet traffic, since one can now call anywhere in the world 'for free' with one of those special software packages -- and video if desired with no long distance charges. The Telephone companies are really upset, as you might imagine!

What would happen to all of those star Internet companies, if a major 'long distance' charge was legislated on all internet traffic? Later, I would guess that the more distant communications might incur a higher charge, as well. When will the 'free' party end?

Anyone know what is happening in Europe or Asia?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 17:57 - ID#210114)
The Cr*p Keeps Flowing
From infoseek

"The yen is regarded as an indicator of gold demand in
Asia and was last quoted at 123 yen to the dollar."

Here we go again. This line gets trotted out everytime gold and the Yen go down. But when the Yen goes up; gold does not follow it.


Live Long and Frustrate

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:00 - ID#343171)
GeoGeoff (Gold is Dead!)
a bit extreme, let us say Dr. Kevorkian has entered the room
and the living will has been reread by the grief stricken kin

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:01 - ID#210114)
Look out below
NTERVIEW-Dresdner Asia head sees
Europe gold risk
10:39 a.m. Nov 30, 1998 Eastern

By Simon Cameron-Moore

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - Today's low gold
price still holds plenty of downside risks, as European
central banks cannot be counted on not to sell off their
bullion reserves, Dresdner Bank Ag ( DRSD.F ) 's
Asia-Pacific Chairman Rolf Willi warned on Monday.

Gold traded around $295 an ounce on Monday and hit
a 19-year low of $270.75 in late August, but even that
would look good if the depreciating precious metal
begins to burn a hole in central bankers' pockets, Willi

``The central bank behaviour is the key to the future of
the gold price,'' Willi told Reuters in an interview on the
sidelines of the India Economic Summit conference
organised by the World Economic Forum.

Dresdner was one of the big German banks at the
forefront of the bull gold market which peaked
dramatically on Cold War fears after the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan at the start of the 1980s.

``When it hit $850 we were all smoking big cigars, just
to see it go phut,'' he recalled from his days as head of
treasury and trading in Frankfurt.

But he said his sentimentality toward the metal was
outweighed by market economics these days, and the
bullish arguments for investing proffered by the World
Gold Council, and producers were unconvincing.

``I cannot see it in the rose-tinted way in which other
people would like to see it,'' he said.

``The commodity that gold is today is no longer a
monetary instrument and this means that we will find
ourselves, unfortunately, $100 lower than what we
have today,'' he said, reckoning on the
supply/consumption equation.

The big unknown was what European central banks
will do with their residual gold reserves after depositing
a statutory 15 percent of their bullion reserves with the
European Central Bank ( ECB ) .

``The only thing I can say now really, is it cannot be
good for the price of gold,'' he told a seminar at the
conference earlier.

He estimated Europe's central banks will be left with
11,000 tonnes after meeting commitments to the ECB.

He noted that the Banque de France had given an
assurance that it and Europe's other big two holders,
the Bundesbank and the Bank of Italy, had no plans to
sell but he suspected the instinct to unload a wasting
asset will prove too strong.

``When it comes to reality, who wants to be the last
one to be seen to lose further hundreds of millions ( of
dollars ) ,'' he said.

Europe's central banks will have to seek
quasi-approval from the ECB before making any sales,
but one had already shown where its self-interest lay
before those rules kicked in, he noted.

Luxembourg sold all but 15 percent of its gold reserves
in order to comply with the ECB deposit requirements,
releasing around eight tonnes onto the market, he said.

This hard-nosed attitude to the world's traditional
symbol of wealth has become increasingly widespread.

Even in Middle East souks gold was regarded as just a
financial investment, as women paid for their jewellery
by weight and refused to pay a mark-up for the
workmanship, and sold when the price rises.

But in India old loves die harder, Willi noted.

The country's unbridled appetite for gold, founded in
social traditions, meant millions of dollars left the
country annually, creating a large hole in the trade

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:04 - ID#249244)
Palladium lovers
Palladium is under pressure from PLENTY of Russian sales:


Last warning to palladium lovers: Russians got a bunch
of this metal, the only reason it is still hanging around
$270 is an unusually smart approach to it's sales...but
they are interested to sell has no upside potential
unless U.S. dollar drops significantly.

Oris's pure amateur opinion.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:06 - ID#45173)
I can't figure out how Brazil can hurt the US exporter any more than they already do. I tried to export some sofware there last month. Import duties? 80% So I email them the bits and they make the packaging themselves, pay me royalties. But what if you aren't selling bits and there's no way around the system?

Time for dinner. And then a mint. Just one. Whaaafah thin.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:06 - ID#254321)
Japan Housing starts keep dropping
Envy: Couldn't resist. The Japanese housing markets can't be dead -- they are still moving. How long does it take the head to find out that the body/legs are missing? We have a nearly 10 year count so far!]

Bad timing with Mainland China failing to keep current with foreign currency transactions.

Why do I still get that nagging sensation that the last ( deflationary ) gold bullion fire sale hasn't happened yet?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:08 - ID#317193)
Thank you, keep up the good work but don't get overly attached to that down lever. Nibling R I.

We watch this new gold market together. ASB...for a little while longer...but not much longer. The shorts could not afford to take a loss in the Dec. on to Feb...time for a run.


Tantalus Rex
(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:16 - ID#295111)
@John Disney - ABX vs Harmony

John Disney, I agree with your very simple analysis when it comes to Gold Stocks.

Let me emphasize and support your statements on ABX.

1. Management has not acted on their extravagent boast that they would repurchase up to 10% of the ABX share outstanding. It has been well documented that when management does not follow through with promises to buyback shares, the price of that stock declines much more. Further, the stock price does not react to favourable news as other stocks in the same industry.

2. Peter Munk sold much of his stake in ABX via Trizec Hahn. If he was a TRUE believer in ABX, he would not have sold out.

3. Many directors of ABX has sold ABX stock, further confirming the belief that their stock is overvalued.

4. ABX has done nothing ABSOLUTLELY NOTHING with its great cash position. It often boasts that it has the best balance sheet in the business but what has it done with the POG at all time lows. NOTHING. All we hear is rhetoric comming out of the Pierinna gold mine.

Placer Dome is now become the more aggressive gold company in Canada as evidenced by its recent investment in South Africa.

5. 5-10% of ABX stock is shorted on the TSE. Big investors know this stock has seen its best days not to return if ever for a long time.

6. The hedging contract means nothing cause I believe gold is going to rise big time. In fact, the hedging contrcat is a liability long term.

The only good thing about ABX right now is that I still hold a small portion of shares. I'll be grilling the directors at the next shareholder's meeting. I traded in most of my posityion in ABX for PDG and NEM and Homestake.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:17 - ID#249244)
Brother Tom,

If Europe's banks value their gold at the market, our
theory is correct. I think a little washout today was
some kind of climax selling - you know what happens next.
We will shoot our AKs and watch this market together, dah?
Also, a lot of beer w/o permission, yes? I would say we
are getting close to the this moment...gut or butt feeling...

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:18 - ID#428232)
Another round of "negative" waves.......

Spock ( Look out below ) ID#210114:
Copyright  1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

NTERVIEW-Dresdner Asia head sees
Europe gold risk
10:39 a.m. Nov 30, 1998 Eastern

By Simon Cameron-Moore

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - Today's low gold
price still holds plenty of downside risks


And, to cap it all, the story rises from India.........

Has the German Bank in question got exposure to GOLD DERIVATIVES.

Fu*king amazing, ALL stops to be pulled to sit on the gold price....

Will GOLD have the last laugh, I think it will ?!


(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:20 - ID#317193)
Spock...Willi...words of a fool...
Germany, France and Italy will hold their gold to protect their currencies from a Euro failure. Failure of the Euro will cause CB's to buy gold out of fear. Further, success of the Euro will cause it to expand ( print more ) which will cause the ECB to call for more gold from the member states.

Willi is a weeennnie...same old talk gold down. Will work until '99. Not after.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:25 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...
I hope our THOUGHTS are not getting in the way of our eyes seeing clearly. I do not think so. Seems all going according to the "plan" seen earlier this year...scary. Yes?

Almost ready to jump instead of nibble.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:26 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...
I hope our THOUGHTS are not getting in the way of our eyes seeing clearly. I do not think so. Seems all going according to the "plan" seen earlier this year...scary. Yes?

Almost ready to jump instead of nibble.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:29 - ID#219363)
JTF: I don't think we've seen the end yet either. Micro-Deflation is happening right now in side of Envy's head: Should I buy gold now, or wait until it gets cheaper ? That's what it's all about, exactly the opposite of the Internet stocks, buy now before it gets more expensive. Who knows, maybe everybody will want gold tomorrow, but it's hard to get off the bottom unless it's really time to get up. I haven't even concluded in my own mind that gold even changes value, maybe it's just sitting there being gold, and one day it'll be good to hold it because the dollar's real value tanks. I dunno, what do you think ?

EJ: I was thinking in terms of the currency - if Brazil devalued the Real, imports would become much more expensive for Brazilians, and exports would get cheaper for foreign folks, thus making them more competitive vs. the US and hurting US exports.

Aragorn III
(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:30 - ID#212323)
Haggis---"Will gold have the last laugh, I think it will"
I think we can hear it laughing even now.
"Throw another chip on the pile!" says I. I can thereby improve the vantage of my view, sitting atop, dangling my legs. Some days are better than others, but the view always improves...aye, Haggis?


got more gold?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:34 - ID#219363)
Steel Industry Presses White House
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The Clinton administration must consider stronger actions, such as quotas on imports, to protect the U.S. steel industry from permanent harm, industry officials said Monday. Company executives and union leaders told a group of senators they could not afford to wait until pending trade dispute cases are resolved next summer. Unless cheap foreign imports are stopped now, jobs will be lost forever, they said. Senators from steel-producing states joined in requesting stronger remedies from the administration, saying the existing dispute-resolution mechanisms at most would offer to impose tariffs on cheap foreign imports.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:37 - ID#295111)
@Farfel - Swiss Referendum NONSENSE - Check out the surveys ...
I read your post regarding why the POG fell much today .... ie base on the Swiss selling their gold. Check out the following survey results at the World Gold Council. THE MAJORITY OF PEOPL IN GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY WANT THEIR COUNTRY TO BUY MORE GOLD AS RERSERVES!!!! not SELL!! SO tel me anyone out there, why would the Swiss people be diferent. The Swiss will overwhelmingly reject the selling of their gold. As you've said in the past Farfel, no way Swiss will sell their gold. - Germany Survey - Italian Survey - French Survey

The same question was asked in each of 3 European countries. Namely Germany, France, and Italy. A sampel question was as follows:

In fact, 50% of the reserve holdings that support the "currecny of nation" are made up of gold. Do you think that "country name" should maintain this level of gold reserves, increase it or decrease it?

As you can verify at the above links at the World Gold Council, an overwhelming response to the above questions was YES!!!!!!

SO THEN, WHY WOULD THE SWISS BE DIFFERENT!!!!!!! If anything, as I say again, the Swiss population will be more devout towards gold than people in Germany, France or Italy.

The Referendum on selling Swiss gold is a poor excuse to explain the POG going down today.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:38 - ID#20359)
Seems like all the goat herders come out when gold goes down a few bucks...yup
got milk?

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:45 - ID#428232)
Aragorn III (Haggis---

Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle.............

Always have time for gold..... infact.....

I have recently developed a Geographical Information System ( GIS ) to source and locate historical turn of the centuary gold mining tenements ( long abandoned ) relative to current ownership.

The theory goes:

1. presently, current ownersof tenements may not know the location of the old tenements, and may not be undertaking active exploration, in the majority of cases, of those current tenements.

2. correspondingly, the current owners do not necessarily know the location of the old tenements, nor of the historical production - all turn of the centuary, when GOLD was a standard.

3. "ALL" you have to do is cross reference the old with the new, classify the old tenements via Kg of gold produced, and BINGO...... some 640 old locations are identified which produced in excess of 100Kg of GOLD

Now, 100 Kg ( minimum ) of GOLD is US$ 1 million..........time to make some money.........

Och aye the nooooooooooo...........


(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:46 - ID#210114)
Swiss Referendum
Does anyone know when the referendum is??

(Mon Nov 30 1998 18:52 - ID#43460)
If you think goldbugs have it bad look at the cattle market!
Here are some collected links related to cattle, hogs andother agricultural commodities. IMHO the blood in the streets this time might be that of the hogs slaughtered rather than sending them to market at a loss. What does this have to do with gold? Well, you can now buy five good sized hogs for an ounce of gold in some places.,business/30da8f6e.b29,.html

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:16 - ID#350194)
@oris and Spock
oris - some times the small guys notice the chink in the armour first, however I read through the entire article of the URL that you posted and saw very little substantiation ( hard facts ) for the comment about huge pending Russian sales. Any other back-up? I'm not doubting the scenario - just looking for the evidence and not spin doctor hot air.
Speaking of hot air - Spock - Do you put 100% faith in the prognostications of Mr. Willi? Seems like he spouts whatever he is fed to me. ( Engages mouth before putting brain in gear. ) Let's look closely at some of his statements, with my some of my little innuendos in brackets:
"Date: Mon Nov 30 1998 18:01
Spock ( Look out below ) ID#210114:
Copyright  1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
NTERVIEW-Dresdner Asia head sees
Europe gold risk
10:39 a.m. Nov 30, 1998 Eastern

By Simon Cameron-Moore

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - Today's low gold
price still holds plenty of downside risks, as European
central banks cannot be counted on not to sell off their
bullion reserves, Dresdner Bank Ag ( DRSD.F ) 's
Asia-Pacific Chairman Rolf Willi warned on Monday.

Gold traded around $295 an ounce on Monday and hit
a 19-year low of $270.75 in late August, but even that
would look good if the depreciating precious metal
begins to burn a hole in central bankers' pockets, Willi
said. ( This statement is true but 50/50- Mooney )

``The central bank behaviour is the key to the future of
the gold price,'' ( Again this statement is true but odds are 50/50 either way - Mooney ) Willi told Reuters in an interview on the
sidelines of the India Economic Summit conference
organised by the World Economic Forum.

Dresdner was one of the big German banks at the
forefront of the bull gold market which peaked
dramatically on Cold War fears after the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan at the start of the 1980s. ( Did they get burned big-time recommending it ALL the way up? - Mooney )

``When it hit $850 we were all smoking big cigars, just
to see it go phut,'' he recalled from his days as head of
treasury and trading in Frankfurt. ( Did they get burned big-time recommending it ALL the way up? - Mooney )

But he said his sentimentality toward the metal was
outweighed by market economics these days, ( Oh - Really? And is there any hint of sour grapes in play in his present opinion? - Mooney ) and the
bullish arguments for investing proffered by the World
Gold Council, and producers were unconvincing. ( Oh - Really? And is there any hint of sour grapes in play in his present opinion? - Mooney )

``I cannot see it in the rose-tinted way in which other
people would like to see it,'' he said. ( once burned, twice shy? - Mooney )

``The commodity that gold is today is no longer a
monetary instrument ( Oh Really - and what accounts for the HUGE daily trading volumes of this non-monetary metal? - Mooney ) and this means that we will find
ourselves, unfortunately, $100 lower ( nice round number, usually a sign that a chid's reasoning is at work - Mooney ) than what we
have today,'' he said, reckoning on the
supply/consumption equation. ( Back-up please on this supply/consumption equation, I'm REALLY interested to see those figures! - Mooney

The big unknown was what European central banks
will do with their residual gold reserves after depositing
a statutory 15 percent of their bullion reserves with the
European Central Bank ( ECB ) . ( True Statement - However, considering the very uncertain times that are now upon us, does it make sense that the largest European Banks will decide, en masse, to dump this 'non-monetary' metal that they have held heretofor as bank reserves for the past few centuries? - Mooney )

``The only thing I can say now really, is it cannot be
good for the price of gold,'' he told a seminar at the
conference earlier. ( Since his premise is 'The big unknown was what European central banks will do' how does he arrive at this conclusion - especially given that 'He noted that the Banque de France had given an assurance that it and Europe's other big two holders,
the Bundesbank and the Bank of Italy, had no plans to
sell?' Could it be that it is one man's attempt at making a name for himself? - Mooney )

He estimated Europe's central banks will be left with
11,000 tonnes after meeting commitments to the ECB.

He noted that the Banque de France had given an
assurance that it and Europe's other big two holders,
the Bundesbank and the Bank of Italy, had no plans to
sell but he suspected the instinct to unload a wasting
asset will prove too strong. ( I suspect he suspects too much - Mooney )

``When it comes to reality, who wants to be the last
one to be seen to lose further hundreds of millions ( of
dollars ) ,'' he said.

Europe's central banks will have to seek
quasi-approval from the ECB before making any sales,
but one had already shown where its self-interest lay
before those rules kicked in, he noted.

Luxembourg sold all but 15 percent of its gold reserves
in order to comply with the ECB deposit requirements,
releasing around eight tonnes onto the market, he said. ( EIGHT TONNES out of the European Hoard of ELEVEN THOUSAND TONNES that may become available! - Less than 1/10 of 1% - Whew!- Mooney )
( Also - Such an interesting example that he uses to back up his theories - Luxembourg - Did they perhaps NEED the money? Did Mr. Willi ask any of his Central Bank contacts in Poland why they are BUYING with the outstanding evidence before them that Luxembourg is SELLING? - Mooney )
These articles appear every day. Read between the lines people, elsewise the wool will work!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:20 - ID#350194)
Was off-line composing and dinner break. Posted - then noticed - good to see intelligence runs in the blood - AYE!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:23 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.15. The 233 day moving average is 29.15

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:23 - ID#210114)
Mooney et al.
Thanx for all that. I posted the article but that doesn't mean I believe it.

Having said that, it is clear that the Central Bank bogey is alive and well. It will continually be brought out to keep the POG down.

As I have said many times before; until the CBs decide once and for all what they are doing with their gold, then there will be no certainty in the gold market, and very little prospects for a bull.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:24 - ID#210114)
Swiss Gold referendum
When will it be?; anybody!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:26 - ID#390415)
You holding all them calls, pardner?

THE "Y2K problem" - the need to reprogram computers to correctly recognize and store dates after the turn of the century - is generating a lot of overtime for the consultants whose predecessors created the problem in the first place.

Now it seems that Y2K is helping to reignite speculative demand for gold.
Sorry, goldbugs, I mean "investment demand."

Some of this has been reflected in sales of gold coins. People out there in the country across the Hudson are buying them at an all time record rate. In the third quarter alone,sales of coins in the United States were up to 772,000 ounces, a 170 percent increase over the third quarter of 1997.

Presumably they get stored next to the assault rifles and canned goods that will see their owners through the financial market turmoil and general social disruption. Who knows? Maybe they'll be laughing at us, just before they pull the triggers.

But the prospect of millenarian mayhem may be causing a bizarre imbalance in the gold pit of the Comex exchange downtown. The gold option contract with the largest open interest on the exchange is the December 1999 call, specifically the 390 call. A call contract gives the owner, in return for a premium, the right, but not the obligation, to take delivery of a commodity, in this case 100 ounces of gold.

The 390 call lets those owners acquire gold at a price of $390 an ounce, whatever the spot price is at that time. This promise is backed up by the AAA rating of the Commodity Exchange, Inc., which the millenarians might not believe will survive the New Year.

The December 1999 call will expire on the second Friday in November of the year. As of Nov. 18, the total amount of gold call options for that 390 contract was over 3,200,000 ounces, which is over 90 tonnes of gold. The total gold calls for the whole month is over 180 tonnes. That's a lot of gold.

To put that position in context, the January 1999 call options total a little over 660,000 ounces, or about 20 tonnes.

Said one gold trader on the Comex floor, "If gold comes in $30 an ounce better ( it closed Friday at $296.05 spot ) it's going to be a T-Rex. Then it would be unhedgeable. The whole thing is weird. The date is all wrong. The size is all wrong. It looks random, erroneous."

By "unhedgeable," our trader means that it would not be practical to lay off the risk on other gold market participants. When market makers on the floor of the exchange sell calls, they don't plan to go into their private vault and take out 100 ounce gold bars and hand them over to you if the price moves in your favor.

They buy some call options or futures on their own from other dealers or exchanges who can get the gold from mines or central banks who have the physical gold to sell.

But the Dec 1999 calls are such a big, odd position that it would be difficult to lay off the risk. Our trader has heard the talk that this position has been built up by individuals who are betting on Y2K problems. But he's skeptical.

"Maybe 10 percent of the volume on this exchange represents retail, on average. This is a professional market, not a retail market. This just doesn't make sense."

Because the Y2K position doesn't "make sense," right now it's created a lot of inefficiencies in the pricing of gold options before and after the Dec 99s.

And those inefficiencies are the source of profit for the floor traders.

By the way, for their own account, many if not most of them are dubious about gold as an investment. "It's been the worst investment in the universe," says our trader. "The cash costs of mining keep dropping, and the supply goes up." So where's the possibility of $390 gold? Do the Y2K paranoids know something? Or is it just a small ring of buyers. There is some talk that this is a very small group doing this.

"This isn't going away," says the trader. "It's going to get bigger and it could become a magnetic issue."

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:26 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .242. The 233 day moving average is .249

THE Priest
(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:28 - ID#371242)
Fruit from the trees of eden
it is so nice to see the fruit ( gold bars ) been shook off the tree of the garden of eden. PEOPLE THE ONE THAT ACQUIRE THESE FRUITS HOLD ONTO THEM TIGHTY AS THEY WILL RIPEN SOME DAY

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:28 - ID#210114)
ANOTHER year goes by......
Gold fell below the $US 300 level for the first time since early 1985 on November 26, 1997 on a spot future basis, closing on that day at $US 296.90. With the spot future Gold price closing at $US 292.50 on Nov. 30 ( its first trading day since Nov. 25 ) , we are now entering the second year of sub $US 300 Gold.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:35 - ID#348257)
the priest
I am holding on tightey.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:38 - ID#348257)
the priest
no... I am holding on TIGHTY!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:44 - ID#257351)
TYoung, Silverbaron & neer-do-well
Good points. Hope we can keep going. Look at North's latest comment about oil refineries .. an eye opener, fer sure.

We are toast. That and Infomagic's latest really lay it down to rest. Burnt Toast 'r' Us. Time to have that 'get away' plan polished up and well oiled.

If fuel processing fails for a month or more then we will have large scale death in the urban areas. In the Northern tier via hypothermia. In the Southern tier via civil unrest and disease.

Buy that rifle and a pile of ammo 'cause we are going back to 'hunting and gathering' in a big way. Every stray dog you kill will be one less competitor ( for wild game ) and threat ( dog packs ) . Gotta learn to think differently.

THE Priest
(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:46 - ID#371242)
it is so nice to see the fruit ( gold bars ) been shook off the tree of the garden of eden. PEOPLE THE ONE THAT ACQUIRE THESE FRUITS HOLD ONTO THEM TIGHTY AS THEY WILL RIPEN SOME DAY

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:47 - ID#257351)
Gold goes down a few bucks and its 'TEOTWAWKI' ?
I don't think so.

Look at gold as an indicator, an eyes view into the bowls of the beast which you are not allowed to behold. Its movements and twitches are revealing to the discerning eye.

Gone for the night.

THE Priest
(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:47 - ID#371242)
it is so nice to see the fruit ( gold bars ) been shook off the tree of the garden of eden. PEOPLE THE ONE THAT ACQUIRE THESE FRUITS HOLD ONTO THEM TIGHTLY AS THEY WILL RIPEN SOME DAY

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:57 - ID#210114)
Beaming up now....
Please note; previous post was a quote from Bill Buckler.

Live Long and Prosper. Still waiting for a reply on the Swiss referendum

(Mon Nov 30 1998 19:58 - ID#249244)
My brother, you forgot PMSP...Also, RJ said gold will
rise soon...also...also...also. Last time you said it
looked like it's coming, I said it looks like there is
not enough critical mass yet, remember? Now we changed
sides...may be it's normal rotation?.. may be not.
At least you liked CZ, dah? Stick with your THOUGHTs,
you are the man...I'm personally in deep PMSP mode.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:05 - ID#249244)
I believe there was a lot of talk here that Russian
stockpile was gone...looks like it's not exactly true.
On the other hand, how can you possibly learn FACTS
about pending ( or FUTURE ) sales? Facts about future???

I'm just trying to help you guys, because you do not
speak Russian....

lefty kiwi
(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:17 - ID#32176)
Greenstone Gold
All I can say about Australian Rugby is that Aussie's are very good at cricket.

like your logic on finding gold moning properties though .

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:18 - ID#219363)
If you're out to make a platform for yourself for the next few years I'm sure you'll be able to find support behind trade barriers. There will be considerable pressure brought to bear on the government by industry, and eventually by people, for isolationist policies designed to cut down on the number of cheap imports flooding the US markets and increase exports, in short, to balance US trade with the rest of the world. Don't jump on the wagon too soon as the average US citizen loves cheap imports until it costs them their job. There will no doubt be considerable pressure to increase military readiness as well, but I'm betting that'll be further down the road, economic uncertainty always breeds unrest around the world, it's already happening in places like Indonesia. Just be ready to blame someone for reducing the effectiveness of the US fighting force. You'll want to find a scape-goat for the debt crunch that could happen as personal income drops and banks still want the money that has been borrowed during the historic growth of the past years, so find people to blame it all on now, the banking system is a good low risk target, especially retail banks giving away 125% equity mortgages, get ready to blast those guys, it's their fault. You'll want to be ready to focus attention on government spending, which hasn't been a big crowd pleaser lately, but will be when people get squeezed for cash and realize that the government is making more than they are. Prepare in advance to let loose of government employees and cut spending when you can, or at least be ready to give a press conference about it. Whatever you do, don't be caught voting for any measures that raise taxes, you can raise taxes, just don't be caught doing it, it'll come back to haunt you. Complain about the national debt whenever you can but don't beat people over the head with it just yet, talk about it in terms of how many dollars of a person's tax money goes to paying interest and focus special attention on what is likely to be an increasingly difficult time for Treasury debt. You're going to need an enemy for all of this. Remember these people: It's the foreign investors who have speculated in our markets, it's the foreign companies who don't pay high enough wages to their employees making for cheap products, it's revolutionary groups causing trouble in foreign countries, and it's the politician you replaced who couldn't control government spending. Your friends are all the poor folks who were driven out of their jobs by money hungry foreign companies and governments, so pay special attention to labor. Don't get caught on the wrong side of all this. Position yourself early because the games are about to begin.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:24 - ID#263456)
Comex drawdowns(ups) today?

Has anyone seen the comex numbers today ??

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:28 - ID#257312)
Star Wars Update--Impeachment Inquiry Expands

The impeachment inquiry just got serious. A White House source implicates Clinton in campaign finance wrongdoing. Reno, Freeh may be subpoenaed. Go Henry Hyde, it's just a teeny step from campaign finance to Chinagate and the real scandals.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:29 - ID#317193)
Brother oris....PMSP
Is still the key...waiting for $285 or even lower to begin any real buying. However, I will buy in Dec. Just don't know at what price.

Speaking of buying...think I will attend to the other matter this week.: )


(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:31 - ID#29048)
Comex totals from Kaplan's site
COMEX silver open interest dropped 2,285 to 74,647 lots. COMEX gold
warehouse stocks were unchanged at 820,504 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks gained 298,640 to 76,817,971 ounces, modestly above their lowest level since 1982

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:33 - ID#219363)
Tokyo Stocks Up in Early Trading
TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar fell against the yen early Tuesday following a decline on Wall Street. Japanese stock prices were mixed. The dollar bought 122.76 yen in early trading, down 1.06 yen from late Monday in Tokyo and also below its level of 123.26 yen in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average gained 1.35 points, or 0.009 percent, to 14,885.05 points in the first 30 minutes of trading.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:44 - ID#249244)
To: Brother Tom "The Machinegunner"
From: Brother Oris "The Mad Russian"
Message: Buy it now, ask any questions later....
We gonna make it work for you.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:47 - ID#290456)
Allen (USA)

Perhaps I should already know this, but who is 'Infomagic'?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 20:57 - ID#29048)
Profit taking and Margin changes
CNBC's FABER REPORT: Fed Margin Fears Rattle Internet Stocks

Dow Jones Newswires

The following report was aired Monday on CNBC-TV by CNBC reporter David Faber:

"It's a rare performance today for many Internet-related names. They are going down. While earlier today the group looked as though it was in for
a major break, many shares have rallied back from bigger losses. At the heart of today's move are fears that the Federal Reserve, which sets margin requirements for the initial purchase of all stocks at 50%, will make a move to stem trading in some of the market's more active names by increasing the level of cash needed to buy. While specific names could not be singled out, the Fed, so the rumor goes, could make a list of stocks whose average daily volume is close to their float and it would require more cash for purchases of those stocks. The Fed has no comment.

Much more likely actions with regard to margins in Internet names are moves by the brokers themselves to increase maintenance requirements. In fact moments ago I got a report that U.S. Clearing - the firm that clears for Quick & Reilly, and is owned by Fleet - has increased its margin requirements for a group of 70 stocks. Among them are many of the names you might expect that have had such volatile moves on any given day and they are Internet-related. Not all of them will be required to have 100% - meaning you can't use any borrowed money at all. On some the margin requirement has been moved up from 50% to 75%. But again it is a list of 70 stocks which does include many of the more high-flying names. Why this is all important is many say the individuals behind much of the buying have been doing so because they are using borrowed money and therefore if that is cut back it may perhaps cut back on the demand for some of these

Today also, Salomon Smith Barney raised its maintenance requirements from 30% to 40% for all the names you might expect: Yahoo, Amazon, EBay, TheGlobe, AOL, Navarre, OnSale, Earthlink, Books-A-Million,, CDNow, EarthWeb, Cybercash, Cybershop, 24/7 Media, K-Tel, BroadVision, and Audio Book Club. We will see what happens from here.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:02 - ID#286230)
Insurance Companies Y2K Fingerbowl
Received today a "Dear Client" letter from an insurance company re: Y2K which reads in part:

..."the Insurance Industry... is so concerned about the impact of Y2K on commerce that the insurance companies are now introducing specific exclusions to be attached to all of their policies. These exclusions are intended to make it absolutely clear that there will not be any coverage for losses that are directly caused by the Y2K problem...


... You should work on the basis that any loss suffered as a direct result of the Y2K problems ( either yours, your suppliers or you customers ) "WILL NOT BE COVERED" by any insurance....

It is one thing when the military gets focused on an issue but when the insurance companies get to acting on it I guess we have a problem.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:08 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...Allen
oris...I shall but will not talk of this to my social "friends"...they think I'm a little far out as it is.

Allen...hope your out in left field...with no game on...and in the wrong ball park...with no lights. However, I'll be ready one way or the other. Hope to have one great garage sale in May of 2000.


(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:17 - ID#317193) nice to the new mystery type personage...
On second THOUGHT ( s ) ask for a name, e-mail address and home a start, anyway.;- )


(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:18 - ID#18355)
cnbc chit-chat...i think i smell a reversal
i watched ron insana and bill o'neill ( merrill lynch ) snicker about commodity prices today. ron said "copper is down, oil is at record lows, the crb is flirting with historic lows and gold is just killed". william replied affirmatively and said "gold wasn't going to do much and should be sold, along with silver, on any of these spike rallies, as he has mentioned in the past". 3:55 pm 11/30/98.

the item to be gleaned from this is from ron ( cnbc ) saying that " gold is just killed" or GOLD IS DEAD in other words. so there it is, for all to hear. invest accordingly...i for one will not give up.

do not despair, for the end game is one of patience. one small slip and you will be lost.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:20 - ID#156161)
Silverbaron @ 20:47
infomagic ( no caps ) is an anonymous poster to, among others,

the usenet group. He claims towering

computer credentials and his arguments of doom are pretty

tight. A deja news search ( ) will

give you more than you want to know about his theories.

He's great fun.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:25 - ID#390249)
precious metal update
Lower australian dollar had something to do with today's gold price according to the attached. Also newswire reports German ECB governor claims they will not sell gold.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 21:41 - ID#257312)
Hong Kong Stocks Falling

Where is their plunge protection team?^HSI&d=1d

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:01 - ID#413109)
OPINIONS that all they are
BUT, gold is now heading for the "BUY" areas and testing the
bottoms, but what I find more interesting is where will the markets
go from here. With all due respect, and I do respect his opinion,
Oleman and others have called for new highs, and they may still get
them. However if my reading of a chart means anything the S&P as
an example has made a hi, came back and tested it, I believe even
surpassed it and now?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:22 - ID#219363)
Certitude: the last deadly sin
Although fear and greed usually drive the stock market, they took a back seat to investors' third deadly sin in mid-October, when brash certitude reared its ugly head among the bears. If you were watching CNBC or reading the nation's business pages, you would have missed it since only a relative handful of sound-bite celebrities got to extemporize on the lamentation they had been rehearsing for 15 years. The real action was on the Internet, where doom-and-gloomsters took to the chat groups like soccer hooligans storming the field at the end of a 4-and-16 season. I was in the thick of it, of course, aggressively siding with those who argued that the Dow, which had plummeted nearly 2,000 points since July, had much further to go. My speculation concerning a collapse to 3,500 or worse fell about midway between the discussion group's bearish extremes.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:29 - ID#219363)
Global markets bullish but near the brink
Summary: The global equities markets have enjoyed and extremely bullish rise from early October to the present, with many market indexes retracing 100% of their previous losses or more. This is surely a positive sign for the still-expanding domestic economy and improving international markets. Or is it? After reading our analysis of the global investing scene you can come to your own conclusion. Commodities are in a much less enviable position, both here and abroad. The growing deflationary trend that was first in evidence at this time last year in most commodity sectors, after abating somewhat during a late summer commodities rally, is back again and with a vengeance. In fact, most commodities are at major crossroads and where they decide to move from here will literally determine the economic destiny of the domestic and international economy for the next few years. The month of December promises to be a decisive one in the way of deciding which way our economy and the economies overseas will head into 1999. So get ready for and exciting ride. ( no "-en" in gold )

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:43 - ID#219363)
Sure is quiet.

Sold half my physical this weekend for a small profit.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:53 - ID#339274)
Still from the opinion that 10000 is the number the DOW will reach
either at or around post Christmas seaon.Stocks will be turning down
around the first week of the new year for the main market and the second
week for goldstocks,downswing will accelerate at the third and fourth week.Bonds will be trying to make new highs.No relief until fourth week
of February.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:55 - ID#432148)
Homestake Third Quarter New s Release arrives in mail -
Has anyone else read this? The write offs go on and on. Shareholders equity drops to $406,595,000 Sep. 30, 1998 from $683,505,000 Dec. 3l, 1997. Why is August Von Finck, German mult-BILLIONAIRE, buying 30 mil shares of this company? ( Wants 20% ) Are they clearing the decks of past poor decisions and are things going to get so much better as a result? Is there some accounting specialist out there that can explain this for us? I asked their Investor Relations for some answers recently and was ignored. I sold half my shares awhile back and am thinking of selling the rest. Report is on their web page:

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:56 - ID#433143)
Why i cannot understand why ppl put the -en after gold in!? Can some one explain? should not it read to facilitate easier access?? I have been deleting these two letters for a year now...

(Mon Nov 30 1998 22:57 - ID#433143)
hrmm does the kitcos scripts add the -en on purpose? hrmm i posted the correct url hrmm and now its changed i see.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:02 - ID#227238)
G Nutz:
It's a Kitco thing. ..... LOL. ... Bart has the system programmed so that anytime the word gold appears in a URL, the letters - en - are added. It arises out of a difference of opinion between Vronsky and Bart.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:06 - ID#257312)
Envy 22:43

You did WHAT??

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:07 - ID#431200)

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:09 - ID#431200)

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:14 - ID#431200)
Gold Use the word gold instead of golden in the URL Use the word gold instead of golden in the URL

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:16 - ID#257312)

Sure hope you didn't sell your American golden eagleS!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:20 - ID#369174)
Hmmmmmm . . . Impeachment Probe Expands
By Laurie Kellman
Associated Press Writer
Monday, November 30, 1998; 9:38 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Republicans on the House impeachment panel moved
Monday to subpoena FBI Director Louis Freeh and a federal prosecutor and
gain access to their secret memos laying out alleged fund-raising
irregularities in President Clinton's 1996 campaign.

``The committee has received information which suggests that the campaign finance abuse memos may contain allegations of criminal wrongdoing by the president,'' said Paul McNulty, a Republican spokesman for the House Judiciary Committee. ``The committee is duty-bound to investigate that information.''
URL: cut/paste

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:22 - ID#257312)

Not only does it add an -en, it decapitalizes the letters! Observe-- GOgolden eagleSGO

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:24 - ID#224230)
As I posted yesterday, is a nice family run skiing lodge. Probably perplexed to see how many hits they get !
I want to rent some space there and make a subdirectory such as \golddigest\ and create the pages that will work. then fill'em with ads !
As long as this childish "en" fetish continues.
Does anybody think it's funny ?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:29 - ID#219363)
Yep, sold half my eagles, the price I was offered was too good to pass up. Now that they're gone, however, I plan to sit and see if gold follows all the other commodities down the tube in the short term. Long term I'm still a buyer.

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:34 - ID#369174)
G'night All!
Thanks, Bart, for another Kitco day!

Best to all posters and lurkers. Remember, things are still ASB, but tomorrow's another day!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:43 - ID#25257)
Come Out, Come Out, Where Ever You Are!
For anyone who ever pondered the ponderocity of the word PAUCITY, please consider this adverb while lurking KITCO tonight. Your see, this state of PAUCITY is pathognomic of the prodromal conditions which usually precede a large increase in the POG. You see, a rather great PAUCITY of self-aggrandizing, self-proclaiming expertise, and the conspicuously conspicuous absence of the Great Guru Mindset almost always marks an upward movement in the Precious. My arent they quiet! Go My Precious!

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:50 - ID#373403)
golden eagle
golden eagle
gold eagle
gold beagle
golden eagle

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:51 - ID#373403)
two spaces in between words
gold eagle
gold -eagle
gold -eagle

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:52 - ID#373403)
one more time
gold- eagle
gold- eagle

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:53 - ID#373403)
gold-e agle

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:56 - ID#25257)
How about a new handle="THE CHORE"?

(Mon Nov 30 1998 23:57 - ID#275194)