Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:01 - ID#188390)
The following is from
--the Swiss Bank, SCS.
Economic and Financial research
NOVEMBER 26, 1998
Many people were expecting the U.S. economy to slow in the wake of the Asian crisis and the increasing drag on economic growth ( -1.4% ) from the widening trade deficit ( $120 Billions ) . Yet, the fact of the matter is that real GDP has continued to grow at an average of 3.4% over the last 4 quarters, which corresponds EXACTLY to its average growth rate over the last 3 years.
Such a prediction error results from the fact that most economists rely on demand-side, output-gap, Keynesian models. In 1997, their demand-side approach led them to over-estimate inflation and in 1998 it had them under-estimate growth.
Demand-siders view the economy has been driven by demand components, namely, ( C ) onsummation, ( I ) nvestments, ( Government-Taxes ) , ( eXportations-iMportations ) , which can be de-stabilised by "shocks", such as Asia, Russia or Latin America. Recent prediction errors have revealed how difficult it is to appraise the impact of recent events on Consumption or Investment for that matter.
Supply-siders model the economy rather differently: as one which strives for an optimal utilisation of the main production inputs, namely, Capital ( K ) and Labor ( L ) . In their model, prices ( deflation, CRB index, market volatility ) not quantity ( unemployment, output ) will respond to "shocks".
By creating a non-inflationary micro-economic environment, the FED has paved the way for low interest rates, increased capital spending ( K ) , high productivity, low labor costs, reduced unemployment ( L ) , strong dollar, contained imported inflation, etc. It is this virtuous supply-side dynamic which has powered the U.S. economy over the last 10 years. By focusing on the dynamics of K and L, and its related impact on productivity, employment and consumption, the Economic & Financial Department of SCS we were able to forecast GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 1998 at 3.3% vs. 3.9% revised, against a demand-side projection of 2%.
U.S. GROWTH FORECASTS ( October 6 -1998 )

This type of model has also led us to foresee at the beginning of the year a Dow Jones near 10000 and a 30-years bond yield below 5%. Bad news now for the Keynesian! Supply Siders are expecting 1999 to be a mimic of 1998 in terms of Dow Jones returns, but this time with less volatility.
Real GDP growth will probably continue to growth at 3.4%.
Long bond yields will decline another 100 basis points to score 4%.
Profit margins will widen.

The price of a share is determined by the level of EPS time its P/E:
P = EPS * P/E
In 1999, P/Es will move even higher for three reasons:
By the decline in long term rates to the extent of 50%
By the widening of profit margins to the extent of 25%
By the growth to the extent of 15%.
Conclusions : for 1999, position your portfolio 50% in bonds ( US/Europe ) , 50% in US and European stock representative of their corresponding indices. This kind of balanced portfolio should yield an excellent return for a conservative growth risk profile. But, most probably good performance would be obtained without continuous recourse to Reuters, Bloomberg and financial newspapers. Ignorance is often a blessing. A relatively passive strategy was the winning formula in 1998 and it could very well be that of 1999.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:05 - ID#219363)
CRB hit a fresh 52-week low today, touched 195.18, closed 195.42. 52-week range is 195.18-238.39, which kinda makes you wonder about some stuff. XAU isn't look'n real pretty either ( below ) , kinda looks like it's ready to take a dirt nap to me. Can gold go up while the other commodities lick the gutter ? It's awesome that gold coins are selling, but how much of overall gold production goes into gold coins ? I dunno, but I'm guessing they can make gold coins all day long. I really just don't have a clue.^XAU&d=5y

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:10 - ID#275194)
Envy; The sentiment is getting downright negative on kitco with respect to
Gold!!! A couple more dollars lower, and I'll be SCREAMING BUY IT, while most others will be trashing it. Go figure. Same thing happened at the lows in Sept.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:15 - ID#188390)
"For the sad but wise "conspiracy theorists," who silently weep
for what the America they had dreamed has become -- an America of
lunatic prison building frenzy, churning halls of lawmakers
vomiting out "laws," and ROBO-POLICE who are "just doing their
job" -- hope is spasmodically clutched upon: maybe Y2K will blow
the whole System to smithereens."
Above quoted from

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:16 - ID#373403)

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:20 - ID#255285)
The enned
Missing Link
Ahhha! ANOTHER soul who realises you can't get enlightenment without the en.


The repercussions are being felt around the world: ( @vie.htm

off to honour some Steinlager futures possessed by Au_Producer turning paper into gold-en beer. He sharpens his axe.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:25 - ID#255285)
Spot the reason for Fred@Vienna's URL post not copying properly. Very interesting! ANOTHER undocumented featurette.

view it
Date: Thu Oct 29 1998 04:37
Fred ( @Vienna )

Gotta go

Getty Golden Ale

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:28 - ID#219363)
I really do want to believe in her, gold is pretty, and it's cheap too. But this little voice in my ear just keeps telling me that gold can't explode out on the upside unless all the other commodities go with it. But the trend seems to be just the opposite, the commodities seem to be nose diving into the dirt, can gold really lead the way ? And then this voice starts telling me that gold is used in chip manufacturing and other industrial applications, and I wonder if demand is going to go up or down for it, and I'm just feeling like it's going to go down even more. Then there's the dollar, I could see gold going up if the dollar dropped against all the other currencies and lost a bunch of value, but is that what's going to happen ? I honestly don't know a thing about how gold dances, but I'm skeptical.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:35 - ID#373403)
Gold is going through the roof
Envy has finally given in and sold some gold. Watch out tomorrow!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:41 - ID#219363)
I did indeed capitulate *grin*. Given the choice between prophet and contrarian indicator, I'd bet on me being an indicator. I did buy a good bottom in gold a few months back though.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:43 - ID#275194)
Envy: Follow the crowd! If they all want it, sell it to them,
and if they ALL don't want it, buy it from them. You don't need to look at ANYTHING ELSE!!!!! At major turning points!!! Right now we have the luxury of witnessing two markets at their extremes. Fear and greed, both at work at the same time with two markets. At major turning points nothing will make sense as to why it should do, what it does, only that it did. If there aren't any buyers left ( or sellers with respect to gold ) then sheer gravity will come into play ( stock market ) and prices will collapse under their own weight. Or will rise ( gold ) because there is no one left to sell. It's blatantly obvious that gold is being manipulated and held down for a lot of reasons that have already been posted here.
The time to be afraid is after it has had a tremendous runup and you should be afraid of loosing your profits, not after it's on it's lows that haven't been seen for, how many years?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 00:56 - ID#219363)
Don't get me wrong, long term I'm there for her. I will continue to buy gold in small amounts well into the future as she can't stay this cheap forever. But short term I don't know. My strategy in June switched from stock bull to bullish on gold and cash. After watching the way things seem to be playing out, however, I'm slowly turning into just a cash bull. As far as buying what nobody wants, well, that's cash. Savings rate being what it is, that's the one thing nobody seems to want. *grin*

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:00 - ID#219363)
Asia, Red

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:01 - ID#391172)
wonder if
I wonder if there is a connection between the inflated stockmarket, the charges levied by middlemen and professionals and the low low prices of commodities like oil, wheat,agricultural products in general.

Gold can hardly be considered a commodity, unless it's valued as a monetary one, it's not $300 an ounce because it's good for jewelry and computer chips.

The stuff we are eating and using is valued very little, the time people are paid for at thier "desks" is high prikced. So the stock market bubble is related the wage bubble?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:03 - ID#218223)
Envy; Cash will be king!! IMHO, gold is the best form of cash there is!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:21 - ID#219363)
Agree with you that gold isn't a commodity, at least not like a pork belly is a commodity. But, it does seem to rise and fall with the commodities when all the commodities trend together ( instead of, say, wheat having a bad year by itself ) . Like I said, I just don't know that much about it. I'm staying in cash, there just doesn't seem to be anywhere else to go. Stocks, bonds, foreign stocks and bonds, precious metals, commodities, reits, annuities, derivatives, etc, just nothing looks that good right now because it's either top'y or it doesn't look like it's on the bottom yet. Considering holding some foreign currency to hedge against the dollar, but probably won't even do that.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:33 - ID#391172)
Yeah, I just invested in gold last week and I'm already down $5.00 an ounce. Thats the downside. The upside is I'm out of dollars which the way I figure just gotta come down. US economy is painting itself into a classical corner with high dollar, that's why AG is trying to devalue by lowering interest rates? He's gotta or the US economy will wither from leaf to stem, or ala Goldfevr the center pole will go too.

I don't feel safe with cash..just look at it..high class monoploy money..then look at GOLD. I know you will watch the situation and not get bit, but watch it every day it could come quickly.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:44 - ID#219363)
Yep, you hit it on the head there, AG bringing down the value of the dollar. It would sure help our export picture and would drive up the price on imports. It's so hard to say, so many variables to this thing. The net effect of the interest rate cuts doesn't seem to have been a reduction in the dollar's value, at least not yet, but the money supply continues to increase, and foreign folks will have to send all those dollars back home to momma someday. Feels like inflation in the face of deflation as others have suggested. *grin*. If inflation: Gold up, dollar down. If deflation: Gold down, dollar up. Ahhh, to have a copy of the Wall Street Journal for January 01 2000.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 01:50 - ID#386245)
thnx Auric
"Kenneth J Stauffer" wrote:

"At this point, it is prudent to minimize exposure to the financial system,
for we are at the precipice of the greatest bank run in history. It is
foolish to wait until the herd starts moving, for then it will be too late
to get your finances in order - the major players will have wired their
redemption demands long before a lowly netizen like you even gets a chance
to stand in line. How long will it take the news of the dollar's impending
demise to travel from the studio where 60 MINUTES is produced to the
boardrooms of Wall Street and sink into the heads of the elite? The window
of opportunity to buy gold and silver coin at incredible bargain prices
can't possibly last much longer, and the growing public consciousness of
disturbing uncertainties respecting the stability of the banking system
makes it imperative to convert one's assets into tangible goods now."
Read some particularly gloomy Y2K stuff yesterday. My reaction?? Went and bought another $500 worth of grub. Gonna open a general store in Jan. 2000. 'Nick's Whatever Happened to Y2K General Store'. Has a certain ring to it. Woolworth's look out!!!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:05 - ID#284255)
Email chatter
=I don't think so. If the cash is just a substitute for normal checking account balances, then the net effect will be the same as leaving the money in the bank ( aside from Y2K issues ) .

That's not quite right. Most of the dollar stock exists in the form of
interest-bearing accounts. The interest-earning feature of these cash
substitutes provides some measure of protection against the continual
depreciation of purchasing power resulting from inflation of the total
dollar stock, thereby bolstering the demand for dollars. Holders of cash,
on the other hand, have no protection against inflation.

The most practical way to maintain liquidity while preserving purchasing
power is to buy a highly-liquid, hard-to-inflate commodity like gold or
silver coin. This of course means that a bank run threatens the value of
the dollar itself, not just the producers of cash substitutes. So far, the
North American demand for gold and silver coin has skyrocketed in
anticipation of Y2K, and strange things are happening in the gold options
market. As far as the dollar stock is concerned, there is no evidence of a
large-scale Y2K run yet, but the publicity of the Fed printing of an extra
$50 billion in cash coupled with the refusal of regulators to allow the
public to verify Y2K compliance by the banks is bound to have an unsettling

At this point, it is prudent to minimize exposure to the financial system,
for we are at the precipice of the greatest bank run in history. It is
foolish to wait until the herd starts moving, for then it will be too late
to get your finances in order - the major players will have wired their
redemption demands long before a lowly netizen like you even gets a chance
to stand in line. How long will it take the news of the dollar's impending
demise to travel from the studio where 60 MINUTES is produced to the
boardrooms of Wall Street and sink into the heads of the elite? The window
of opportunity to buy gold and silver coin at incredible bargain prices
can't possibly last much longer, and the growing public consciousness of
disturbing uncertainties respecting the stability of the banking system
makes it imperative to convert one's assets into tangible goods now.

Nick, just finished listening to todays 3 hr broadcast on Chuck Harder...
All 3 hr on Y2K .lt is rebroadcast all night. He gave the CBS great reviews
and does play back of Yardeni speaking on the TV program. It was very good.
Maybe you want to post it so anyone can listen in during the wee hours.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:18 - ID#257312)
From An Unimpeachable Source--K2

A rather exuberant poster @ K2 who calls himself GET REAL says Gold is headed to $200. Finds it pretty damn funny too! Well, I can't see it going that low. The circumstances that allow $300 to buy an ounce of Gold, have nearly led to an all out global collapse. Further drops in POG imply a worsening and malignant deflation. I think the whole ball of wax would implode well before $200 were reached.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:20 - ID#284255)
I always thought you were quicker than me.^o-o^

Back to my cave....

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:23 - ID#284255)
"I think the whole ball of wax would implode well before $200 were reached."

Couldn't gold go to $200 after the event?
Abeit only temporarily .

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:29 - ID#386245)
I have thought for a long time that you were a doom and gloomer ( like mois ) . The more I read, study, and learn, the more I realize that you are a survivor. Most are not. Many who read a steady diet of Kitco will not be prepared. ( "IT JUST COULDN'T HAPPEN TO ME!!!!"--they say ) Hopefully it won't. But...

Those whom have lived through disasters/hard times will be ready. One out of a hundred. The rest are mollycoddled and pampered. Hard times will be a death sentence for some.
Sure glad we live in Oz. Follow the yellow brick road...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:35 - ID#386245)
Auric@$200 gold
and 500 DOW
and $10,000 house
and 15 cent loaf of bread.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:37 - ID#254288)

The FED has its balls in in the nut cracker, they lowered rates only to save, the global bankers, the investment bankers and bullion banks whose collusion with the Hedge Funds created a near systemic failure.

They would rather seen our markets fall in an orderly manner, the forced lowering of rates has created only one desired effect. That is to give the well connected time to exit before the proverbial hits the fan.

Poor earnings expecially from the multi-nationals, looks to be in the cards, the dollar is high relative to other currencies and more so after the rash of devaluations. When the market awakens, the devastation may be ugly.

Gold at these low levels should create some real interest as the dollar weakens for trade reasons. Greenspan might then tighten to create safe haven competition to gold and the coming Euro. But the falling market and a weak dollar will render his actions useless.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 02:48 - ID#386245)
Commodity prices are hinting at the possibility of deflation. If the CRB keeps heading south--defensive action is necessary.

You have a choice. You can do it now and beat the rush, or you can stand in line with all the rest.

Get out of debt. You don't want to pay off credit cards and mortgages with more expensive 'money'.
After the deflation, if deflation is to be, will come the bargains of the new millenium. Those with hard assets and little debt will buy things of value at fire-sale prices. Be one of them.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:11 - ID#284255)
Allen - North's latest comment about oil refineries
That comment should not have been posted at all.
It only adds fuel to the fire which is already burning.

The comment is badly made and is full of conjecture which has no backup facts.

Once again Gary has tarnished his reputation by reporting scaremongering comments.

It's not that I don't believe that the oil/gas industry is under severe threat.
But when you read that comment you realise it shouldn't have been printed.

At least that's my opinion.
Proper reporting of the facts is paramount.

Scaremongering based upon no facts is irresponsible.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:32 - ID#254288)

Strange happenings, January Crude at $11.22, the CRB at
195.42 and prices at the pump still over $1.20 down here. Refiners might have other reasons to keep their price up.
Milk, cheese and other items up about 15% at Costco.
These may be a plan to later cut from higher levels.
Government edict is pushing tobacco prices over $3.00 a pack, talk is in the wind about health insurance premiums going up about 6-20%.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:34 - ID#284255)
Aldebaran - this might help you.
Future contracts

GC stands for gold.
The third letter stands for the month.
And the last digit stands fro the year.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:36 - ID#257312)
Gold $200 After Global Meltdown?

Hmmm. With a situation that chaotic, certainly can't rule it out. If people decide to hold onto cash and not spend it, then that might do it. I think in the mad dash out of financial assets, though, enough $'s would find their way into the metal to shoot its $ price up considerably. My plan is foolproof. I call it Operation Grand Slam.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:48 - ID#252391)
To Aldebaran & Disney
How those '99 gold calls doing??? Must have been able to get some good prices today.

South African miners down 5% over night - they had rallied into our crash of yesterday so that pretty much catch up for them.

The metals are a midge higher over night with the exception bing PT which is off a buck.

Mr. Disney, notice that Tiger Woods is in your neiborhood holding meetings with Nelson Mandela. Remeber your son had said he though 900 would be seen on the JSE All Gold - seems we are headed in that direction.

With the dollar firm, commodities going lower, bonds firm its hard to get warm on the metals, false rallies just to suck us in, failures to spit us out.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:53 - ID#386245)
Thanks finnie
Am listening to Chuck Harder with the missus while keeping up with the posts. This computer does both at once. I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 03:54 - ID#348169)
@NickC and Jack
About the ONLY thing that really has me worried that deflation will snowball is the renewed attack on commodity prices as seen in the CRB. OIl is a BIG factor in the CRB as higher oil prices eventually trickle down into the bottom line of just about everything else and especially the production and transport of the soft commodities. I guess what I'm saying here is that 'As goes oil, so goes inflation/deflation'. 'Night All! ( 4:00 AM in the Big City )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 04:07 - ID#258195)
Monday's Gold and Silver Leasae Rates
ForMonday 30 Nov calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.28---------------4.21-------------3.88-----------------3.57
Gold Lease Rate---1.34---------------1.04-------------1.28-----------------1.55
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.07 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.14 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.60--------------3.65-------------2.70-----------------2.45
Silver Lease Rate---1.02--------------1.60--------------2.26-----------------2.67
( Change ) --------- ( + 0.11 ) -------- ( + 0.35 ) --------- ( + 0.38 ) ------------ ( + 0.30 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day
N.B. The sharp jump in 1-month $LIBOR from 5.03% Thursday to 5.56 % Friday caused the 1-month Gold and Silver Lease Rates to rise by a similar amount on Friday. I was sceptical that the $LIBOR figure of 5.56% figure in the FT could have been a misprint. But the 1-month $LIBOR rose on Monday a little further still , so we must assume this is no printing error. Does anyone know why $LIBOR should have risen like this? I notice also that US Dollar C.D's rate of interest ( which were unchanged Friday ) followed suit Monday with a rise of 0.42%

(Tue Dec 01 1998 04:22 - ID#252391)
Good work - I keep an eye on the numbers you provide. I suspect one day when I yawn and clear my head to read the data it will jump out at me that something important has changed. Sorry, I don't have any idea why the rates jumped 42 basis points - but if I find out I'll tell you.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 04:26 - ID#316193)
FINANCIAL WORLD NEWS -- "Technical Picture May Be Improving For Gold"
"It's not yet wildly bullish looking--but it's the most
constructive it's been in 2 1/2 years," he concluded.
"I think there is going to be a suprise into gold into
the New Year."

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:04 - ID#284255)
Thanks matey.
Never thought for a moment that you were a D&Ger.
In fact you shocked me when you mentioned it.
I had thought you were to smart for that. ( ;- ) ) )

Still searching for my gold brick road.
All I've found so far are golden xxxx's

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:05 - ID#153110)
The following rule of conduct leads to a forced choice between your liberty of person and your pursuit of happiness. Your pursuit of happiness is now regulated, fraudulently, as interstate commerce ( OFFICIAL BUSINESS ) .

"Just try to keep this one thing in mind. If a signature is required, or a State issued identity document ( obtained under signature ) is required, it is contractual ( stipulated ) in nature. If no signature is required ( for prosecution or action against a party ) , then the common law is being applied, and the law itself provides the means in lieu of signature. It can be no other way, as a man's signature is his own private property which cannot be coerced out of him except to receive a benefit, which, of course, is not coercion but merely an agreement to comply with terms and conditions or to grant [statutory] jurisdiction."

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:11 - ID#240155)
sharefin those charts
they show they only show the high and low prices where transactions occured. What I was talking about was on, you can see not only the trades, but what the bid is and what the ask is. And this afternoon EST, someone was asking 305 for gcz8, they didn't get it, but they were asking that much when the open was 292.5 or so.

I just thought it was odd, and I see stuff like this on occasion and it seems match the trend the next day in New York.

I work at night so I watch I guess the Australians and Asians trade gold, it looks like very little actual trading goes on, just biding and asking back and forth all night with a few trades.

this is the url where I watch.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:16 - ID#240155)
jims dec99 calls
the 390 calls were unchanged at .60 the volume was 156 and apparently people were paying up to .70 but settelment was .60

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:19 - ID#153110)
@POG & systemic risk
I freely admit a bias of antipathy toward the "system". But I also know that unless you have actually tried by control of the logic to make a computer do what you want it to do, you are probably unaware how difficult the task is and how error prone our thinking is. Our JIT financial systems and distribution systems utterly depend on automated electronic systems.

Green printed paper $ are designed to last two years. POG will, I fear, be the least of our worries before the end of 2001.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:35 - ID#284255)
I'd hazard a guess that the trading was thin and a few bids were pulled for a while showing higher up bids.

I suppose the pulling of the bids would/could be an indicator of sentiment for the following day.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:42 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:51 - ID#240155)
volume on dec 98 gold futures on up days and down days
On the 18th or around there when gold went up, there was lots of volume on gcz8 futures contracts.

But yesterday when gold dropped so much there was very little volume.

This is good right??

(Tue Dec 01 1998 05:58 - ID#284255)
TYoung Some info on PTO's

Popular Scientist

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:10 - ID#29048)
Demand for physical metals in coin and jewelry form grows....
Dallas Gold & Silver Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Up 61%

Dow Jones Newswires

DALLAS -- Dallas Gold & Silver Exchange Inc. ( DLS ) said Thanksgiving weekend sales rose 61% from last year. In a press release Monday, the company said it increased its selling space in its Dallas Superstore
facility by more than 30% during the third quarter. Dallas Gold & Silver Exchange sells jewelry, watches, diamonds and precious metals.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:16 - ID#224230)
Silver Jewelery Story
I read here yesterday that Silver is now being advertised and heavily promoted as the Gift du Jour for your babe...

First throught ( naturally ) - what's wrong with gold all of a sudden ?
Second thought - perhaps they know that by the time the advertising campaign really penetrates, gold will be all but unaffordable for such a frivolous thing as bodily decoration....

So not a lot of point in raising demand for it in such a fashion.....
: )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:22 - ID#29048)
Marketing gold???? What a concept!
November 30, 1998
Dow Jones Newswires
Anglogold Wants Gold Producers To Market More Aggressively

-By Vanya Dragomanovich

LONDON ( Dow Jones ) --After feeling the pinch of this year's slumping gold price, producers of the metal should get more aggressive in marketing the precious metal, according to the head of the world's biggest gold producer.

Bobby Godsell, chief executive of South Africa's Anglogold Ltd. ( AU ) , said gold producers should work harder to boost the gold price by getting more creative about marketing and working harder to find new markets.

"These are all areas where we think the gold industry can come together sensibly in pursuit of its own interest," Godsell said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

"The question in all of this is where is gold in the West," he said. "The answer is nowhere. The challenge is to reposition gold onto the high street and for that we need branding and design. I don't think the gold ( retail ) industry in the West has made it into the 20th century yet."

Godsell, who is also president of the South African Chamber of Mines, helped bring 27 gold producers together in London last week to discuss how to boost demand for the physical metal, liberalize markets, particularly China, and boost transparency in central bank and hedge fund transactions.

"People in commodity industries often say they are price takers not price makers. That is interesting, but we have just decided that this is all nonsense."

After languishing below $300 a troy ounce for most of 1998, the gold price fell as low as $271.50 an ounce in August. In Godsell's view, miners have to do more than focus on their own productivity.

"We spent two years demonstrating that we can make money mining gold in South Africa at lousy gold prices and we can produce a 10-11% return at gold prices as low as $250 troy ounce," he said.

Godsell said he has concluded that producers must take more of the marketing effort into their own hands. As part of its own marketing initiative, Anglogold earlier this year switched from producing so-called London good delivery bars - 11.5 kilogram bars of 99.5% purity designed for use by central banks - to smaller, 10-tola 99.9% purity bars designed mainly for the Indian and Dubai jewelry markets.

Producing central bank bars reflected the thinking that gold miners were producing money and therefore didn't need to worry about marketing it, Godsell said.

Angogold also decided to budget $11 million in 1999 for market research and gold promotion. Although critics maintain that the World Gold Council, a producer association that includes Anglogold, should handle marketing, Godsell wants more to be done.

"The magic, mystery and irritation of gold is that it is virtually an indestructible thing," he said. "Every ounce produced over the last 5,000 years is almost certainly around."

"The fact is that 800 million people bought jewelry last year and if we want to get gold prices up we have to make it 900 million," Godsell said. Gold must change from a relatively conservative product aimed at a small wealthy layer of society to a trendy accessible luxury good, he said, complaining that jewelry retailers aren't modern in that they don't extend credit, stick to a conservative and static design, and price jewelry at between 200% and 300% of the gold price.

"Shops are dark and staffed by people who are like cabin crew of British Airways first class," he said. "They sniff class. If you have to ask for the price too early in the conversation, they will determine that you are not a good customer."

Like other industries, gold has to move to mass production, said Godsell. He compared it to Apple Computer Inc. and Nike Inc., the sporting goods company. "What Macintosh have done is a radical conceptual change," he said, referring to the latest Apple computer model. "They understood that people are buying computers for reasons of self image and not only for the megabytes." In Asia, where gold is viewed differently than in the West, the marketing should be different, Godsell said. The world's largest buyer of gold in 1997 was India, where gold is not seen as a luxury good, is sold at low margins and high volumes, is widely accessible and appropriately priced.

"The story of the East is of one continuing market liberalization," he said. "Following recent liberalization in Turkey, then Dubai, then India, one market that is crying out for market liberalization is China."

"If less than a billion Indians can consume 700 ( metric ) tons of gold per year and a more than a billion Chinese consume 200 tons per year, what it suggests to me is the market is seriously underdeveloped," Godsell said.

Anglogold plans to dispatch a market research team to China early next year to sound out the market. "This is our first approach and we will see what we can do," Godsell said. "Maybe we can have a whole chain of Anglogold jewelry shops alongside McDonalds." He said the Chinese market could be guided by the market in Hong Kong, which has reinvented itself in a way not seen in the West.

"Last time I went to Hong Kong I saw a range of punk gold jewelry in transparent plastic, purple and gold modeled by young androgynous people with spiky hair," he said.

Hong Kong gold jewelers use medical scanners to create scans of a customer's head or bust, which they then turn into six-inch or 12-inch gold figures, he added.

-By Vanya Dragomanovich; 44-171-832-9588;

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:25 - ID#367411)
To Aldebaran re Calls

I too have become interested in taking out Y2K insurance in the form of deep out of the money calls. I am looking at silver and oil, although I will focus on silver.

I have a futures account here in Japan, but they don't have options in their "primitive" financial markets, so I need to get a US account.

Could you help with a little info about your broker?
1. What broker do you use?
2. How is the service?
3. Minimum account requirements & commissions per call

Good luck and thanks in advance,


(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:45 - ID#240155)
THC Broker I use
I use Terrapin Futures and Options.

They are small, and not online, but when I went looking for a broker I called about 60 different ones. Only Aleron of Ohio and Terripin were nice to me on the phone. Now perhaps I am not being fair, people on the east cost of the US have a accent that to me in the midwest sounds very abrupt and rude. Still I spoke with a number of brokers in Chicago and they seemed rude too. Their accent is very nearly identical to mine.

Perhaps thats not the best way to pick a broker. Anyhow, there are no costs for the service, or to set up an account. Commission is $25 per contract and that includes the closeing transaction. They did not seem an account minimum, however I opened with $1000. I shouldn't say they are not online, they have a website, but you can not trade on-line. I think their website is

I would suggest you strongly consider what you are thinking, if y2k is bad, and if there is deflation, the prices of these things may go way way down.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:47 - ID#153110)
@Three Interesting Books
Living Energies by Callum Coats
Tesla's Engine copiled by Jeffery A. Hayes
The Problem of Increasing Human Energy by Nikola Tesla

(Tue Dec 01 1998 06:48 - ID#411440)
@ Dabchick: If $LIBOR rises, would that not mean that
interbank borrowing rates are rising, reflecting a tightening of
credit conditions between banks. Does this not reflect a
perception of heightened risk in the banking sector? If this is
true it is curious that this brought down gold yesterday. You would
think that a drop in gold lending rates would be the route that
CBs would go to manipulate gold down.

So I was correct on Sunday when I predicted that gold would be hit
by short selling on Monday. The rise in one month leases in gold
was the tip off, and it was not a typo. It is frustrating to see
the pattern between lease rates and POG, and not know why it is
happening. Lease rates rose a bit more today. Gold will remain
under pressure.

I think we should pay particular attention to the gold lend rates.
If these go up or down, it is more significant than fluctuations
in LIBOR I think.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:08 - ID#252391)
Aldebran and THC
Here's the web site for the broker being discussed

Sure there not a bucket shoppe of some kind????

Seriously, for those of us of the Gold '99 Dec 390 variety maybe a good throw. Actually I'm a bit more conservative only being a Gold April '99 360 fellow..... THC if you were here last night you know what I mean.

PD up $2 overnight I notice , PT down the same..... dollar weak and the S&P down 600-700 - how far will the correction go. Will any body care when the Ruskies finally admit they are in default on Wednesday. Maybe that has something to do with the higher inter bank rates. To far beyond my mind tonight - good night.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:21 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 177.917 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 293.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 178.401 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 294.700 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 2.9812 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 4.9250 US Dollars

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:21 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:25 - ID#246299)
Donald, how everrrry interesting!

UBS--``We are going to be exiting the commercial derivatives business,'' a spokesman told Reuters, adding that this was effective immediately.

``We are going to be strengthening our commitment to the precious metals business by having a deeper cooperation with the forex department,'' the spokesman said. {:- )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:26 - ID#246299)
OOPS--that should be "Verrry"
waiting for coffee {:- ( (

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:37 - ID#258427)
Looks like the beginning of ping "x"
in world financial markets...Germany and France down seriously..3%+

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:46 - ID#237260)
Note the last two times that the put call ratio reached this level!
Also the A-D line is looking sooooo strong.
Guys if your not out yet then,GET THE HELL OUT, QUICK!!!!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:48 - ID#35571)
I don't think gold was hit by short selling yesterday so much as certain NY funds dumping gold and equities in order to load up in bonds.

The money goes where the action is, and yesterday the action was in the bond market.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 07:50 - ID#35571)
The second wall
Crunch time is almost upon us.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:07 - ID#376309)
Time To Buy
For the record I moved money into Fidelity Precious metals Yesterday and went long Feb Gold at $295.00. If this isn't the bottom it is close. This small move down simply stopped out some weak longs and will be a 'V' shaped bottom!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:08 - ID#367411)
To Jim & Aldebrand re Y2K Hedge
Thanks for the broker info. I too am looking around online to see what's out there. My thoughts:

*I hope that Y2K is a total hoax, and that life as we know it continues uninterrupted. I hope that the earth can avoid the suffering that the doomsday people predict.

*However, if Y2K is a BIG problem, I want some kind of a hedge to protect myself, as I assume my work/income will slow down greatly.

*I plan to buy a very small amount of silver/oil options now ( Dec. 99 ) and in 6 months or so ( expire after Y2K ) ......

*If Y2K is a hoax, I will be happy to see my options expire worthless & continue life as I know it.

Good luck to all,


(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:15 - ID#35571)
Rumblings in the currencies

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:17 - ID#246299)
Update-on weekend games with fiats
( 1 ) repost from weekend

"Saturday games once againw/ Gold in euro
1 Gold ounce = 256.938 on Friday [median 256.305/256.938 ask]
1 Gold ounce = 258.032 on Saturday [median 257.485/258.032 ask]"

( 2 )
On Sunday quotes, they moved it back 1.00, to very near the Friday quote. Both moves on "one price/trade". An accommodation to a major player?
That is a fairly substantial move made, in both directions, on one price/trade, and in/for 24 hours!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:31 - ID#45173)
Dipsters expected to lay low today as well...
Dow seen tumbling at open on more profit-taking

By Jennifer Shaw

NEW YORK, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks were expected to tumble at the
open Tuesday, extending Monday's downward slide in a market analysts say is still ripe for profit-taking.

``I suspect we're going to get another 70 to 80 points down on the open.'' said Thom Brown, managing director of Rutherford, Brown and Catherwood. ``This market was way, way overdue for a correction.''

Shortly before 0800 EST/1300 GMT, December S&P 500 futures were down 9 points at 1153.

On Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 216.53 points, or 2.32 percent, to 9116.55 amid profit-taking in Internet and blue chip stocks and a dive in crude oil futures to their lowest levels since 1986.

Attention is expected to center on the energy sector again Tuesday: Exxon Corp. ( NYSE:XON - news ) and Mobil Corp. ( NYSE:MOB - news ) may announce a merger pact worth as much as $85 billion, the largest industrial deal ever.

Although analysts had expected a market correction, most are still bullish on stocks. The Dow last week touched a record high of 9374.27.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:34 - ID#35571)
Must have hit an iceberg

Bond market rising despite sinking dollar. Big players are nervous.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:38 - ID#45173)
Replay of July?
We're looking at a synch drop of world markets like we saw at the start of the 18% correction this summer. Brazil is already down 2.41% and the falling DOW is take it down farther. HK closed down another 4.1%. All European markets are down hard.

In the summer, the simultaneous drop in world markets presaged the flight from capital markets inspired by the "hedge fund" debacle. Perhaps markets are bracing for the other wall of the storm?


(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:46 - ID#228136)
Yesterday's action
I got a sell signal on the general stock market after yesterday's action. If this marks the start of a change in trend, gold should begin a run up soon.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:47 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 177.917 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 293.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 178.401 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 30 Nov 1998 ) : 294.700 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 2.9528 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 4.8750 US Dollars

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 01 1998 08:47 - ID#287371)
How is our poor downtrodden precious friend this morning?

Smiling is infectious,
you catch it like the flu,

When someone smiled at
me today, I started smiling too.

I passed around
the corner, and someone saw my grin -

When he smiled I
realized, I'd passed it on to him.

I thought about
that smile, then I realized its worth,

A single smile, just like
mine, could travel round the earth.

So, if you feel a smile
begin, don't leave it undetected -

Let's start an epidemic
quick and get the world infected!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:02 - ID#288186)
Very nice C.B....
Morning everyone! Smiles are always good to have!
Well, is hurricane "Financia" picking up strenght? As usual, it's
wise to be invested in PM's in today's environment. It's been proven
as the best way to ride out a financial storm! Go Gold! Go Silver!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:03 - ID#35571)
Next quarter earnings warnings will start coming out this week.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:15 - ID#45173)
Earnings may explain the DOW and the DOW explains Asia and Latin Am. But the negative earnings news will not be a surprise to anyone, will it? What about Europe? We'll have to see how hard and fast the selling goes before concluding that a more severe crisis is brewing.

Crystal Ball
(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:22 - ID#287371)
Where is the dog going to go next?
Just had a peek at the charts at Digisys. As someone on this forum most eloquently expressed the other day, it's kinda like seein' yellow snow- you can tell where the dog's been, but... here's my two cents worth:
gold weekly is toppy- look for sub$280
silver weekly is still in downtrend, support at 460-480 shaky, we could easily see 400-440. But would be a buy there.
platinum weekly bottoming, but may not move anywhere soon
S&P weekly double-toppy at 1200, but could diddle around up here a while
bonds weekly - bottoming, could run for 134 again, or even new highs to 140+ ( tiptoe in the tulips ) once S&P's decide to tank
eurodollars daily- nearterm VERY oversold--Good Lord !! Could Greenie have another fed funds cut in his pocket? He must be scared sh!tless !!
dollar weekly- made a bottom. Look for dollar index to kiss 100 soon
crude oil weekly- the absolute worst!! huge 2-year head and shoulders top pattern between mid 1996 and mid 1998, but oversold and needs a near-term bounce. But sub-$10 crude by mid-1999 would not be a surprise

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:24 - ID#35571)
Some will be surprises, some won't.

I will be intersted in hearing what the big banks will have to say.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:33 - ID#354133)
U.S. Defense is serious about Y2K...
... serious about spending real money to "fix" it. The article below does not include the funds that have been spent to date. Article says of the 2,581 "mission critical" systems needed to be compliant, they have "just 1,014" to go. The DoD is having a hard time even defining "mission critical" systems, much less all the non-critical systems that are required for interfacing...

Should be an interesting year.

From the Defense Daily dated December 1, 1998

Pentagon Increases Cost Estimate Of Y2K Fix

By Frank Wolfe

The Pentagon now believes it will spend $2.5 billion to fix its massive Year 2000 ( Y2K ) problem, up from an earlier estimate of $1.9 billion, according to the latest DoD report to the Presidential Office of Management and Budget ( OMB ) .

The Pentagon now estimates that 1,352 of its 2,581 active "mission critical" systems are Y2K compliant. DoD says it must repair just 1,014 of these systems because 102 of the active "mission critical" systems are to be replaced and another 113 are to be retired, according to the Nov. 17 report.

Of the $2.5 billion, the report estimates the Air Force to have the largest share--nearly $1.2 billion--while the Navys Y2K fix is estimated to be $474 million, and the Armys $360 million.

After the military departments, the National Reconnaissance Office ( NRO ) has the highest cost figure for its Y2K fix--$98 million, according to the report, followed by $65 million for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs.

The Pentagon hopes to complete repair work on 95 percent of the "mission critical" systems by the end of this month so it will be in a position to conduct end-to-end operational testing in 1999 to insure that when Jan. 1, 2000, arrives, the military can perform its mission unimpeded.

The Y2K problem results from the inability of older computer systems to process properly the date change, a fact that necessitates the rewriting of computer code for these systems.

"The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the commanders-in-chief ( CINCs ) have developed a comprehensive Y2K operational evaluation program to validate capabilities for operational missions," Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre wrote OMB in a cover letter to the report. "I have directed DoD principal staff assistants to oversee functional end-to-end testing plans for business and support systems. The department is also preparing operational plans to ensure that all critical functions will continue and that the effect of any Y2K-related problems will be minimized."

But Hamre, in an interview with reporters in October, doubted whether the Pentagon could complete repair work by the end of this year on the 95 percent of the systems it established as its goal ( Defense Daily, Oct. 15 ) . Congress recently tried to speed the Pentagons progress by including $1.1 billion in FY 99 emergency appropriations for DoDs Y2K efforts.

Without such money, the Pentagon would have had to continue to delay some computer upgrades to gain additional funding for Y2K from its $10 billion annual information technology budget, Hamre said.

The Pentagon, in the Nov. 17 report, acknowledged that its estimate of the number of "mission critical" systems has often changed.

"The fluctuation in the total number of mission critical systems is due to two efforts--the examination of functions that are mission critical, and then the critical examination of the systems that support these functions to determine those that are critical to the operational capabilities of that function," according to the report.

The report also said that the number of Pentagon "mission critical" systems would likely continue to change "as DoD examines its systems within the context of mission and readiness impactsalthough these changes are expected to be minimal after this point."

Complicating the Y2K fix is the number of computer interfaces. On average, each DoD computer system has links to another 12 systems within DoD and outside it, the report said.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:34 - ID#35571)
Opens up a quarter and rising.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:38 - ID#339274)
I love NEM ,so predictable for your wallet : )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:57 - ID#246299)
A ponder pointre XDR Currency List

The "X" designation is rather special, one feels: XAU ( gold ) ; XAG ( silver ) ; XPT ( platinum ) ; XDR ( Special Drawing Rights ) ; XEU ( the new European currency ) .

Now what, pray tell, is this unit doing in the above august group? XCD-Eastern Caribbean Dollars!
Not that one is suspicious mind you...{:- ) )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 09:57 - ID#45173)
Except the Barclays, the banks have been very quiet. But sooner or later they'll have to say something or risk the wrath of litigous stockholders. A week or so before they speak publically, info will be leaked to the rumor mill. Perhaps this week.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:01 - ID#35571)
Watching the paper fade
16:32 DOLLAR WEAKER: FALLS 0.2% TO 122.96 YEN, DOWN 1.1% TO 1.692 MARK.

Mike Stewart
(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:04 - ID#270253)
Technical Update
The Toronto Mining McClellan Summation Index continues to decline. The downside momentum is significant with the weak breadth. Caution is the name of the game until this indicator turns up for trend followers.

The new lows for Toronto Mining issues have expanded to levels that we have not seen for a couple of months. They hit 13 issues yesterday. We have had over five new low in seven of the last 10 days. This too is weak.

The 220 day MA for gold is still rising at 295.20. We are below this level and must break it to the upside.

The 200 day MA for Toronto Golds ( ^tgl on Yahoo ) is at 6351 and declining. We are on the wrong side for this average too.

The trendline that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is at 5468 this week. This intermediate term trend line is still holding.

The Toronto gold index is below it's daily Bollinger Band. This either indicates a low ( turning point ) should the index recover to trade above the lower band, or a collapse should the index continue to trade below the lower band. The lower band will be at approximately 6300 today. We will have to wait and see. This is for bottom fishing, not trend following.

Summary: The trend is down. Bottom pickers may wish to take risk and buy if the lower Bollinger Band contains the decline and provides a floor. It is swimming against the tide at this point.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:18 - ID#376309)
It's rare that you are bearish and I'm bullish. At least short term bullish. One point that must be made is that with the fed lowering interest rates with a growing money supply and a weak economy ( Did you see the NAPM Report, VERY WEAK! ) and a stock market going down, the fed will want to lower interest rates more. With gold rising it could put them in a awkward position. Expect a rally into Jan99 and then back down!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:29 - ID#45173)
DOW slices through 9000
Dow 8997.60 -118.95 ( -1.30% )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:33 - ID#35571)
How sweet

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:35 - ID#45173)
Euphoria turns to fear?
Indications are that the savior of the world economy, the USA, will be weak in 1999. Bad news especially for Asia and Latin Am. Maybe banking rumors, too, driving investors out of the stock markets.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:36 - ID#33184)
Re: dollar, that is what's so nice about currency trading, you're making ( or losing! ) money all the time, as long as something is going up or down... same can be said about anything i suppose - only with currencies it happens much faster.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:36 - ID#404312)

Coin prices contimue to rise according to the CU3000 at Coin Universe. Bought some Morgan dollars in July. At present their price is 12-15%
higher even though the price of silver has dropped and gold is flat

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:47 - ID#339274)
Taking a big jump ,way to go

Cage Rattler
(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:49 - ID#33184)
Oil is dropping again. Money Center banks could get hit hard again as Mexico and Venezuela come under pressure. Brazil problem will surface again as money leaves Lat Am countries.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 10:52 - ID#339274)
taking profits
Sold 20 3/4 .Resistance in htat area

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:00 - ID#246299)
Gollum--The candy bar...
to be called "Credit Crunch"? {:- ) )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:05 - ID#343259)
Potential Candy Names addition

Mike Stewart
(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:06 - ID#270253)
I am a bull for 1999 as all my long term gold indicators are oversold going into next year. The last time this happened was in 1993. But..the trend/breadth have been weak. Until it improves, I am cautious. This tools are used for trend following, not bottom fishing.

The Dow is fine until mid February based on the dual cut in the discount rate. If the McClellan Summation Index ( mine is issue adjusted to 1600 adv/dec per day ) can hit 3000, then we are off to the races. I doubt it will make it. I expect a traders market until fall 1999, with rotation, volatility and all those great things.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:08 - ID#284255)
Spin spin spin

Some amazing articles well worth the read.
Mobil - Exxon

Banks preparing for anti- bank run campaigns

Now I'm going..............
Bonkers Over Y2K

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:10 - ID#376309)
Being Cautious
Nothing wrong with being cautious when talking about gold. I love your work and agree with you most of the time. Take care

Mike Stewart
(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:11 - ID#270253)
Watch for the CRB forming a "W" bottom at around 195.20. It did a double bottom like this in late 1992 before the last gold bull.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:26 - ID#284255)
An eye opener
43 slides to inform you.
Some are very informative.
All the way up to #43

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:27 - ID#369352)
Gollum - Rukeyser
I was on the same plane with Mr.Rukeyser, ( he in first class, and me in toilet class )'s surprising what makeup does for a person!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:34 - ID#35571)
The disadvantage of first class, of course, is that if the plane nose dives into the ground you die first.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:35 - ID#31876)
George Soros Describes How Close We Came To Collapse
Seven page excerpt by NEWSWEEK from Soros' new book, THE CRISIS

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:37 - ID#369352)
But...the advantage to first class is that if the plane crashes, you exit firt...No?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:47 - ID#35571)
An excellent read, even a must read, for anyone wanting to know more about the international finacial crises and banking system. Thank you.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:47 - ID#339274)
nem 20 3/4

(Tue Dec 01 1998 11:59 - ID#31876)
I kept reading and reading, looking for the word "gold". It
should'a been there. Guess I'll have to buy the book and
see what else Soros has to say.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:06 - ID#285392)
GOLD-- Statistics and Information
This may be interesting.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:07 - ID#35571)
His book is mostly about financial things that don't work. I guess you won't see much about gold in there.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:08 - ID#285392)
OOPS Gold Statistics and Information
Forgot to include the url

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:10 - ID#285392)
Library of information on Gold, govt etc.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:12 - ID#31876)
Now wouldn't that be something, if we just could get Soros to
our Kitco gang.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:16 - ID#225236)
Here we go again. Capitalism is failing, we need some enlightened aristocracy to lead us on global scale.

What Soros conveniently forgets to notice is that what we now have in the USA and in the world is NOT CAPITALISM.

The ideas of Keynesian Socialism and virtually all recomendations of the Marx's Communist Manifesto have been implemented in the US. We are about to see the results. What we are about to experience is a demise of the US's Hippy Communism and of its exalted figurehead, Bubba the Magnificent. RIP, may DC mob eat your BBQed carcas for breakfast.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:17 - ID#35571)
Lunchtime in NY
Won't be much longer and the goblins will return.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:21 - ID#35571)
Well, that kind of depends on what you mean by capitalism. Certainly we don't have pure capitalism, but then we don't have pure socialism either.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:22 - ID#45173)
With that global financial wrecking ball swinging around...
"As stocks hit their morning lows, traders voiced concerns that world markets might once again destabilize."

EZ Believer
(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:23 - ID#173262)
Petronius .... Well said! The masses will find this out the hard way.

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:26 - ID#212323)
the writing is on the WALL for all to see...
LONDON, Dec. 1 ( Reuters )
Union Bank of Switzerland ( UBS ) said earlier on Tuesday it was closing its energy, base metals, and electricity departments and merged precious metals trading with foreign exchange.

"We are going to be exiting the commercial derivatives business," a spokesman told Reuters, adding that this was effective immediately.

"We are going to be strengthening our commitment to the precious metals business by having a deeper cooperation with the forex department," the spokesman said.
------------------------------------------- I wonder why one would lump trading operations for a simple industrial commodity together with foreign exchange operations...

"Gold Standard"--returning to a world near you. ( 30 days )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:30 - ID#246299)
Doing what you do, well...

1/1/97 the quote for platinum in SDR was 253.820 and the quote for gold in euro was 293.222. No relationship, right?

By 11/30/98, the quote for platinum in SDR was 254.653 and the quote for gold in euro was 255.253. Month by month, week by week, day by day an inexorable alignment. The plat/gold shoelace strategy...

Further, GOLD in SDR is 212.632 and PLATINUM in euro is 213.038.

Platinum in euro is 308.213 and platinum in SDR, using -for instance-John Disney's nifty number wand, is 304.396. They still have a little work to do, but by gar, when one looks at the daily figures over a period of
time, one must admire the strategy.

Cage Rattler
(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:31 - ID#33184)
SPZ8: Late yesterday we broke a rising hourly trendline that extends back to 11/12. We are now apporaching that trendline from below. Lets see if the market can pull back above it.....or reverse back down. There is a similar trendline on the DOW but it doesn't come into play until much higher levels.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:32 - ID#246299)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 177.917 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 293.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 177.930 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 293.300 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 2.9528 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 1 Dec 1998 ) : 4.8750 US Dollars


(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:33 - ID#35571)
Banks, NAPM, and the second wall
The global economy is beginning to show some signs of recovering from the chaos wrought by the first wall of the great finacial hurricane.

Unfortunately, we do not yet know the full damage done, and will not know it to any extent untill the end of the fourth quarter disclosure of the banking system results.

LTCM and the hedge funds were more or less the tip of the iceberg.

Recovery depends upon a strong buyer for the goods produced by the recovering economies. That strong buyer of course is the US and some of the European countries.

Now, however, the NAPM figures show that the US economy is slowing faster than anticipated.

Now begins the race against time.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:34 - ID#225236)
"Well, that kind of depends on what you mean by capitalism. "

You are right, of course, after all, we live in the age of relativity: Examples - Bubba o model of virtue, Hilary a model of woman's dignity.

The only way one can have any discussion at all, without getting hung on issues such as "it depends on what the meaning of "is" is " is ( haha ) to return to original meaning of words:

- Capitalism - As described in "Wealth of the Nations" by Adam Smith
- Socialism - As described in "Utopia" by Sir Thomas Moore or "The Republic" by Plato
- Communism - As described in "Communist Manifesto" by Karl Marx

Using the above definitions, the US is about 80% communist, 15% socialist, and 5% capitalist.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:34 - ID#213265)
@the scene
HAR! Stox can't even have a down day or two anymore without major fear enveloping traders that a destabilizing downturn is nye upon us!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:40 - ID#147201)
tolerant1 re talk
How about emailing me your phone #, I lost it. Or give me a call at 828 433 6473. Many thanx, Charlie

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:41 - ID#288186)
Aragorn III; Yes! That sounds bullish to me! 30 days and counting...
: )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:47 - ID#35571)
Quite right. Although I might differ on some of the percentages.

There is another factor too. Many of the companies in private ( capitalistic ) hands are international in scope. So only a part of their operation can be considered to be US.

Many of these operations really don't give a whit about any single country.

Indeed they are bigger than most countries.

How did they get so big?

Well, capitalism works where and when it's allowed to.

Works better than government.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:50 - ID#266105)
feed you head

"Today's low gold price still holds plenty of downside risks, as European central banks cannot be counted on not to sell off their
bullion reserves, Dresdner Bank Ag ( DRSD.F ) 's Asia-Pacific Chairman Rolf Willi warned on Monday "

Isn't this the same bank that took out a full page pessimistic
gold ad in the The Wall Street Journal awhile back. In the
interest of full disclosure...

THE Priest
(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:50 - ID#357334)
Fruits from The Garden Of Eden
looks like the fruit is been consumed from the garden of eden. the appetite is small but will increase as there is only so many apples on the tree.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:56 - ID#219363)
Bizarre Question
Anybody got a good strategy for getting your Congressman to come visit your business ?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 12:59 - ID#201145)
Envy (Bizarre Question)
donation? Is it a bizarre business? Common Politicians respond to bait of booze, whores, and ah er... gold

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:01 - ID#411259)
..... Some Simple Charts .....

In keeping with my theory of simplicity, I made up a few charts on gold, platinum and silver to see if, buried within, some discernable direction may be perceived.

Gold is still holding on to its up-trend, despite the drop yesterday. I still see about $285 on the charts and look for a test of that level. All here know well my feeling for gold in 1999. For those that missed my many pronouncements B4, It will rise - steadily and significantly.

Silver is still stuck in its pennant formation, with good support at 4.80. The stohs show a very oversold market. I have read some folks opinions looking for a drop to 4.40. I see this as an outside possibility, although certainly possible. I think the wedge will rather break to the upside. Remember wedgies in elementary school? When the bullies orchestrated a wedgie, they grasped the back of your Fruit of the Looms and yanked which direction?.. Up, yes? A swift pull down would be properly viewed as a "pantsing" and NOT a wedgie. Wedgies are pulled up, this is axiomatic. Some may find this theory ungrounded in scientific fact. These folks probably never got a wedgie so they do not fully know the inherent power contained therein.

Platinum is still in a strong up-channel from the lows. The chart looks a bit like the gold chart, with former resistance becoming support. Platinum can trade to 344 and still stay in the up channel. A break below that would force another round of serious short covering. I am looking to re-enter in the mid 340s.

Palladium ( for which there is no following chart ) has rock solid support in the 270s and should explode again. I would not be surprised to see palladium flirt with 500 before an industry changeover to platinum saps demand. At least one more ride left in the shyest of metals. Shy indeedy, but a brazen hussy these last few months, no?


(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:03 - ID#225236)
"Many of these operations really don't give a whit about any single country. "

Again this is a result of the unsound ( socialist/communist ) base of politics and money all around the world. The bueaty of Capitalism is that everybody does what is in their best interest and the result is an honest and prosperous system.

When there is no solid/real/true money, when the money can magically be created by the chosen ones out of nothing, the system eventually wrecks itself, and everybody looses. In particular, the US's ability to create money out of nothing hurts anybody who would actually try to produce anything here.

Example: Why should US be able to create money out of nothing but not Malaysia, Russia, Japan, or the European Union? Why should Japan's stock market be in the toilet ( in spite of the fact that they are the largest CREDITOR ) while the US's stock is sky high ( in spite of the fact that the US is the world's largest DEBTOR ) ?

Socialism is always the reason why trade wars, nationalism, isolationism, and real shooting wars begin.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:11 - ID#288186)
RJ; I always take "fruit of the loom" talk seriously...Thanks for your inputs.
Your charts are nice. They clearly show us in an "uptrend" in the
PM's. Gold shall shine, in 99! HOT-DOG!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:14 - ID#35571)
There is a difference between libertarianism and capitalism.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:19 - ID#269409)
@ Hugo....PM Coins rising strongly
Hugo, re your 10:36 on precious metals coin prices rising during a time when the metals are falling....This is happening in other areas of the PM market as well. Those with some Numismatic knowledge and diversification, have been profiting nicely from this trend.

Gold St, Gaudens and Liberty $20 pieces for example, have risen unabated for about ayear now, currently standing about 20% higher than they were a year ago. And this during a time when POG was falling.

Similarly, Platinum Proof AMerican Eagles have risen substantially above their U.S. mint release price, both the 97 and the 98 issues being sellouts ( directly to the public ) . They are now selling for premiums as high as 40% above their purchase price. And this during a time when Platinum price has taken a rather nasty nose dive.

Then in silver, we have not only your Morgan dollar example, but Mercury dimes, and Walking Libertyy halves also rising strongly in a falling silver market. Some of this is no doubt due to Y2K hype, but it's good to remember that less than a year ago, "junk" coin silver bags were being sold at a discount and melted during the Buffet blip in silver price.

Now the Walking Halves and Mercury dimes have disappeared from all "junk" silver bags, as all dealers recognize their Numismatic demand will exceed their bullion value in the years ahead.

We often see posts here at Kitco, questioning why anyone would ever buy a bullion coin that carries a Numismatic premium. Long dissertations about the "hype", etc. that Numismatic websites and sales outlets indulge in to sell overpriced coins. Well...certainly it's true that such sheisters and charlatans are out there, Claiming for example that pre 1933 Gold is not confiscable whereas bullion American Eagles are. Such nonsense is even foisted on us by a cartain "nameless" major banner advertiser here at the Kitco site.

However, if one aquires just a bit of education and knowledge in the Numismatic field....something that is of course required for ANY investment vehicle anyway...... the rewards can be substantial as the current trends in Numismatic coin prices reflects.

Let's remember, in spite of the bullion coin sellers claims that "tens of millions" of semi Numismatic Gold & Silver coins saturate the market and thus anything over bullion coin pricing is too high ( absolutely absurd reasoning if you study the market in depth a bit ) , the fact remains that demand is outstripping supply on these coins. A trend which is likely to continue even discounting the temporary blip demand of Y2K hype.

After all, unlike bullion coins, the Numismatic coins have a finite supply which will only decrease in time. They still remain at bargain prices, with a very modet premium, relative to where they are likely to be in teh next year, let alone next few years.

All this assuming of course, that you do your homework,find the right dealer, and avoid the rip-off hypsters selling overpriced coins that are "safe from confiscation" and such.

I've made some very nice gains in semi collectible Gold, Platinum, & Silver coins over the past year as the metals themselves collpased. That alone refutes the contention that investors holding physical should only consider no premium "bullion" coins, in all cases, in all markets, at all times.

Numsimatics aren't for everyone, but have been doing VERY well for those who do a little study. Particularly compared to the negative performance of bullion coins.

"Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 10:36
hugo ( coins ) ID#404312:

Coin prices contimue to rise according to the CU3000 at Coin Universe. Bought some Morgan dollars in July. At present their price is 12-15%
higher even though the price of silver has dropped and gold is flat"

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:24 - ID#269409)
U.S. Economy gaining strength
Tuesday December 1, 12:56 pm Eastern Time

U.S. leading indicators rise in October

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - A major U.S. economic forecasting gauge rose in October
for the first time since July, suggesting the economy is poised for healthy expansion in 1999, a
business research group said on Tuesday.

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.1 percent in October
after being unchanged in both September and August. It was last positive in July, when it rose
by 0.5 percent.

The October reading was slightly below economists' forecasts for a 0.2 percent rise.

``Following two months of generally flat numbers for the leading indicators, we are seeing some signs of economic growth being
rekindled,'' Michael Boldin, director of business cycle research at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

``With interest rates falling and the stock market rising, the preliminary data for November is also positive and we can expect a
very healthy economy in 1999,'' he added.

Changes in the leading indicators are intended to predict turning points in the business cycle, such as a pickup in growth or a

Six of the 10 leading indicators that make up the index rose in October and four were down.

Among the components, money supply growth, the number of building permits issued for new private housing and the length of the
factory workweek sent the strongest positive signals about the economy.

But initial claims for state unemployment insurance and an index of consumer expectations were among the components that sent
negative signals.

The report also said the index of coincident indicators, a measure of present economic conditions, rose 0.1 percent in October after
increasing 0.2 percent in September.

The index of lagging indicators, which shows past economic performance, fell 0.1 percent in October after gaining 0.2 percent rise
in September.

THE Priest
(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:27 - ID#357334)
(Fruits from The Garden Of Eden) ID#357334:

looks like the fruit is been consumed from the garden of eden. the appetite is small but will increase as there is only so many apples on the tree

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:35 - ID#43460)
Speed re your 622 post
Marketing gold? I am glad that someone finally thunk it. But I remain disappointed that silver marketing is even less enthusiastic. Would you happen to have the URL for your posted article?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:35 - ID#246224)
Japanese version of 'recession'
Japan: second largest economy in the world.


Q1 GDP -3% ( annualized )
Q2 GDP -5% ( annualized )
Q3 GDP -7% ( annualized )


Only a matter of time, folks. The vortex is churning.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:41 - ID#219363)
Don't count your "healthy expansion in 1999"'s before they hatch. *grin*

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:46 - ID#45173)
Ecomonists have such a good track record predicting the direction of the economy, I'm surprised by your cynicism ;- )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:47 - ID#219363)
Gasoline Prices Lowest in 8 Years
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Retail prices for regular unleaded gasoline fell this week to 97.4 cents per gallon, the lowest since the Energy Department began tracking prices in 1990. The price is down 3 cents from a month ago, and has fallen significantly since last year's $1.15-per-gallon average. Department officials expect the decline to continue this week. The department bases its price on a weekly survey of 800 gas stations nationwide. An oversupply of oil, caused by declining crude-oil prices abroad, has been a major factor in sinking gas prices in the United States.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:49 - ID#324266)
Throw a fund raising event for his re-election.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:49 - ID#45173)
Meanwhile, back at the Bill Clinton Impeachment Ranch
U.S. House impeachment panel approves new subpoenas

WASHINGTON, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. House Judiciary
Committee voted on Tuesday to expand its impeachment inquiry of
President Bill Clinton by issuing subpoenas for two Justice Department
memos on the White House campaign fund-raising scandal.

The committee also voted to subpoena the authors of the two memos, FBI
Director Louis Freeh and former head of the campaign finance investigative task force Charles LaBella, to testify in
closed-door depositions.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:51 - ID#219363)
Manufacturing Slows in November
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- The manufacturing sector slowed for the sixth straight month in November as industrial companies felt the crunch of the global financial crisis, but a separate report Tuesday suggested the economy will improve by mid-1999. The National Association of Purchasing Management, which tracks the manufacturing sector through a survey of corporate purchasing executives, said new orders, exports and imports declined at many of the nation's factories last month. The trade group's index of economic activity registered at 46.8 percent, down 1.5 percent from October. Any reading under 50 percent is a sign that the industrial sector is contracting. The index also inched closer to the NAPM's benchmark of 43.6 percent, which it considers the point at which the broader economy is in recession. The economy has grown for 91 straight months, although the rate of growth has slowed, the report said.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:54 - ID#254321)
Where did all that missing debt go? Does the EURO launch help hide it?
All: About 6 months ago, I posed the question where the 1.2 trillion or so of bad debt went after the Oct 97 SEAsia fiasco. Well, here is a partial answer, with regard to the European situation. This is from WallStreetCity, today.


Global Take Dec 1 1998 11:40AM CST

Silent Rollover in Europe?

By Paul Lam

Senior Markets Writer

Aside from coordinated efforts by central banks in Europe to ease

interest rates, another factor which has, thus far, calmed jitters of a

worsening global strife is the art of silent rollover of trading losses

incurred by major banks and financial institutions well into the

following year, according to informed banking reports.

Among the common techniques is converting de facto,

non-performing debt denominated in d-mark, French franc or other

currencies into new euro debt. Such debt obligations would then be

declared repaid while the actual debt issues are rolled over into

sometimes next year, or even beyond, as euro loans.

In addition, banks are also conveying trading losses from countries

with relatively strict regulatory standards, which require frequent

marking and pricing of trading positions on their books to present

market values, to places where they have six months or longer before

true asset values must be declared.


This topic of rollover is expecially relevant, now that we know that Mexican politicians are having fistfights regarding whether the Mexican public should be expected to bankroll the 60 or so billion the Mexicans now owe from the 1994 financial collapse.

Of course, we can never tell when this game of subterfuge will end in any given country, but the final collapse is likely to be sudden in onset, with public uprisings against the leaders/fincancial types who try to keep the game going.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 13:58 - ID#219363)
European Stock Prices Drop Sharply
LONDON ( AP ) -- Share prices dropped sharply on European stock exchanges Tuesday in a swirl of gloom and profit-taking, following big falls on Wall Street and in Asian markets. The London Stock Exchange, Europe's largest, set the pace with a fall of 3.6 percent on the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100-share index. "We have seen quite a rally in the last week or so, but investors are nervous," said Tessa Kohn-Speyer, investment analyst at Barclays Stockbrokers in London. "There has been a lot of speculation that the market will fall back again so they have been trying to cash in on profits today." Key indexes were down 5.0 percent in Germany, 4.0 percent in Paris, 5.2 percent in Moscow, 4.7 percent in Amsterdam and 2.7 percent Stockholm.
I'm sorry, I have to call bullsh*t on this one. 5 percent drop in a market ain't profit taking, that's called selling, that's called 1 in every 20 dollars left the market. One of these days investors are going to "take profits" all day long for a few weeks and we'll be sitting at the bottom looking up wishing they'd put their profits back in.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:08 - ID#219363)
Dollar Falls, Gold Mixed
[...] Gold closed in London at $294.10 bid per troy ounce, up from the closing price of $293.20 bid Monday. In Zurich gold traded at $293.75, down from $294.50. Gold fell 2.30 in Hong Kong to close at $293.45. Silver closed in London at $4.90 bid per troy ounce, up from $4.88 bid Monday.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:17 - ID#433242)
The economy is just peachy
Even if it is a rotten peach! All these news stories sound like they came out of the early 1930's. Then again, FATHER CLINTON tells us that the economy is just booming. Hmm, maybe for lawyers and politicians it is. But then again, would FATHER CLINTON lie to us, his fat, dumb, and lazy servents. NO WAY!

I mean he would not lie about Monica!

GO GOLD!!!!!!

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:20 - ID#212323)
RJ....and Envy...
RJ--Thanks for the thorough explanation of 'wedgies' and 'pantsings'. My day is fuller for having the pleasure to have read your fine words. Always a joy.

Envy--ditto to you with your more recent thoughts on 'profit taking' in Europe.

Enjoy the fine day at hand.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:28 - ID#147201)
Skinny re call
My email is Holler at me when ever you get the chance.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:30 - ID#255226)
The A/D in yesterday's market 1/2 was not negative enough to mark the beginning of a new leg down, to get a continued leg down the A/D has to be more in the area of 3 to 4 negative. Look for the SnP to move back to at least last week's highs to fill an opening gap by mid Dec. I bought the SPZ8 at 1155 this morning. Silver and Gold no change, maxmium down side on the XAU looks to be about 65. Still short Silver from 5.13.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:30 - ID#254321)
Rear Admiral John Scudi -- One affair too many!
All: You should read what kind of trouble John Scudi is into -- his jilted former lover -- now receiving defense contracts -- taped his conversations!

So -- they throw the book at John Scudi, but the Commander in Chief does exactly the same thing, and that's ok.

Perhaps John Scudi should testify at WJC's impeachment proceedings. He might have some choice words about his dillemma. Perhaps John Scudi made the mistake of arranging deals himself instead of getting expendible others to do it for him.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:36 - ID#45173)
Envy - The operative word is

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:42 - ID#266105)
lumpy rugs

JTF/Paul Lam article-- very interesting. Gotta watch'm to
see which shell the pea is under.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:46 - ID#339274)
like a rock
xau 67 nem 18 1/2

(Tue Dec 01 1998 14:49 - ID#254321)
Relativity of truth
Petronius: Great post! I must admit I prefer the truth as seen by a physicist, which tends to be much more consistent from year to year than that of politicians. Hard to distort mathematical equations.

I am very worried about whether the American Democratic system of government can survive much longer when the cleansing action of the impeachment process directed against Nixon succeeded in the 70's, but now similar high crimes and misdemeanors multiplied 100 fold are not sufficient. I think the Nixon crowd had their hands on only one FBI file.

Tom Hanks apparently said what was the truth yesterday about WJC -- that he wished he had not donated that 10,000. Unfortunately today the 'truth police' or whatever they are got to him and convinced him of the error of his ways. Too bad he did not stick to his guns. I wonder who threatened him, and what they said. Seems like the McCarthy days again in Hollywood -- but the topic is not whether you support communism -- it is whether you support WJC. One thing is the same -- you are not supposed to think for yourself.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:32 - ID#269409)
@ Admiral John Scudi
Gives new meaning to the title "Rear Admiral"...

He ought to be getting medals of honor for following the fine lead and example of his Commander in Cheat.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:37 - ID#219363)
Bargains Await Holiday PC Buyers
If a PC is on this year's holiday shopping list, good cheer awaits. Never before have there been so many high-performing, affordable personal computers available -- and easy ways to buy them. The tricky part is just choosing one. For about $400, you can wrap up a reliable system that handles all computing tasks with a blink of an eye. For $3,000, you can tie a bow around a top-of-the-line powerhouse that runs sophisticated games or e-mails personal photographs around the world. There are countless choices in between.


I stand in awe of how quickly the PC became just another bit of consumer electronics. The PC has definitely become one of the best bangs around for the buck, 99% of humans don't even know how to leverage this kind of processing power. It kinda makes you feel bad for the chip shops like Intel who have done such an amazing job of pumping up the speeds to be competitive that they've probably overkilled it. As a consumer, I hope the industry does the same miracle with bandwidth. I think the cap is in on processing power, I mean - 500 mips, 1000 mips, 1000000 mips, who cares, how much power do you need to run Word anyway.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:37 - ID#339274)
Keep short position overnight.Biggest drop in the morning tomorrow

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:40 - ID#350179)
initial bottoming range? I'm looking for a shelf at 67.5 to 68.0...

silver plate
(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:44 - ID#234253)
Good calls on NEM. wish I had the guts to follow them

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:45 - ID#339274)
XAU target 67 /68 NEM is 18 1/2.I think we don't have to wait to long,
first hour tomorrow

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:50 - ID#339274)
Sometimes you get nice trending days to the up and to the
down side.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:52 - ID#219363)
Back up to 196.88 after pushing a new low of 195.18 yesterday.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:55 - ID#219363)
Yeah, I'd expect them to be nervous after this run-up. We all know it'll have to head down at some point, and after a run like that, nobody knows just how far it'll retrace back down. : )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:56 - ID#267344)
Envy - Indeed...
The PC is comperable to television. Computers are old news. There are still some significant advances to be made, but for the most part prices will continue to plummet. The future is in space and in the clone.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:57 - ID#230216)
Mike Sheller - O-P-E-N - yes(!)
ANyone following Sheller Picks knows about this little beauty lately.......good show Mikee!




Gusto Oro
(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:58 - ID#430260)
1 healthy expansion in 1999
2 healthy expansion in 1999
3 healthy expansion in 1999
4 healthy expansion in 1999...

Darn it Envy, quit interrupting me...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 15:58 - ID#350179)
Last minute pump in XAU
Eroding my model ( wait & see time )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:04 - ID#45173)
It's not how many MIPS do you need to run Word that matters, it's what kinds of new technology are possible with higher MIPS. For examle, speech recognition is largely processor speed dependent. Before P166 and MMX, you couldn't even run continuous speech recognition on a PC. Now you can get 95% accuracy if you take the time to train a speaker-dependent system how to understand your voice. Throw enough horsepower at the speech recognition problem and you get 100% accuracy from speaker-indepenent systems, theoretically.

Speech will revolutionize computers. Enough with the clunky keyboard interface! But it's still a four or five years away.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:14 - ID#258427)
Interesting thing happened to me today
Went to the bank to cash a measly lit'l ole $250.00 check...and the bank had ( almost ) no 50' 100's...had to give me 20's and 10's. Teller said they had no big bills...gave them all out yesterday....

Wonder if this is just a thingie for today...or hum....what if I wanted to cash a $5,000 check??...where's the wheelbarrow?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:19 - ID#267344)
EJ - wassup! Have you emptied the bottle yet?
So, what you are saying is buy the speach recognition stock now - or am I the one saying it? This is a good one to watch...


(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:22 - ID#219363)
@EJ, Gusto Oro
EJ: I see what you're saying, but even if my car drives itself and me to work, it's still a car, still just gets me from A to B. I can't imagine speech recognition or a "feed the dog" attachment being any different, it's still a box that runs software. Cars get more fuel efficient, better brakes, more safety, GPS mapping systems, etc, and as a manufacturer you still get declining returns on every new wonder widget you put into the thing. I have no doubt personal computers will get faster and better in other ways, but the fix is in.

Gusto Oro: *grin*

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:26 - ID#201145)
LGB regarding coins
you wrote:

I've made some very nice gains in semi collectible Gold, Platinum, & Silver coins over the past year as the metals themselves collpased. That alone refutes the contention that investors holding physical should only consider no premium "bullion" coins, in all cases, in all markets, at all times


I am interested in this, not so much from a collector point of view, but I have been buying small amounts of gold and silver. I have 3 kruggerands and their pretty enough, but someone posted a descriptions of the Mexican 1oz gold coin and it sound very pretty. I'm not done buying gold, so I think I will get at least one Mexican next. But I hate paying premiums over spot, which is why I got the South African coins last time. I really wanted Pandas. Is there a site that has pictures of all these coins? I'm not interested in the old coins as I don't have the interest to learn all that, I just want "pretty" bullion.

I have 2 10oz silver bars on order from a local shop, and I imagine there going to be just about as ugly as silver can be. Are there any low premium silver coins, not US dimes or anything, but things like the American Silver eagle, I have seen these and they are very pretty, but they want around $7 for them.

If my primary interest is to accumulate bullion, am I foolish for paying a slight premium for the really pretty coins? Does that premium remain reasonably constant? I mean will Pandas and Pesos always sell for a bit more than K-rands? Or am I wasting my money only dabbling in the "collector" side of this? Would I need to go all the way and learn all about these old coins?

I got a bunch of silver oz's that are stamped universal trade something or another, and compared to those mirrored polished coins, mine look ugly. Primary goal is I want silver and gold. Distant secondary goal is if I have it, it could be pretty. I started getting these because of all the talk about the Russian workers not getting paid for 12 months at a time, and now this y2k thing scares me, but I despertly hope that things won't get so bad, in which case I would be happier with pretty coins, not to sell or barter with, but to hold and leave for the next generation.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:27 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 1

Gold 819,279 - 1,225 troy ounces
Silver 76,817,971 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 75,770 + 1,105 short tons

The Gold drawdown was from "Eligible" warehouse stocks...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:28 - ID#219363)
Tuesday's World Gold Prices

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:30 - ID#219363)
Study Says Some Debtors Can Repay
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Rekindling the debate over bankruptcy, a research group released a study finding that only 3 percent of people who petition courts to sweep away their debts could afford to repay them.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:34 - ID#230243)

With capital controls he would not be able to inflict currency mayhem.
The currency speculators, can, as a group, use one fiat to destroy other fiats, then use the surviving fiat to buy real assets in the effected countries.

If gold were the basis of money, at least a real asset would have to be used to buy real assets in a foreign transaction.

In the meantime the Soros and his likes probably accumulate gold in anticipation of their plans going astray.

I can't understand why some gold bugs see Soros as a friend of gold. Perhaps as a friend in need, the need being to save his huge fortune at some point down the line.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:36 - ID#20359)
Aldebaran, Namaste' gulp and a puff...this should help you...go to full text above

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:38 - ID#20359)
Aledebaran, Namaste' gulp and a puff...sorry...this should work...

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:39 - ID#212323)

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:40 - ID#287358)
RJ, APH, Ted Butler,others...
Do you know, or would you hazard a guess as to why the Comex Silver inventories are increasing? Seems to me that if Silver is being consumed
as before, there would never be a situation where inventories rise more often than an occasional blip. It looks to me that " increase" is the trend. And I don't see why inventory would come from London.

I *very much* doubt that Warren Buffett has sold any of his Silver. I do not think it is his style to study a ( Silver ) market for 30 years, and then sell for the gains of a couple of months. And even if I am wrong, I do not think the above inventory increases are from him. A big question that I have is, "Why hasn't Warren Buffet bought MORE Silver?"

I ask for your comments. Thank you.

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:42 - ID#212323)
Imagine...after all these years...we meet again coming to the aid of the same wayward traveler.

I shoulda known...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:45 - ID#263119)
I copied the following from the Yahoo message board for PPOD Inc.:

by: manzp

I bought BAMM on Friday at 36 held it over the
weekend hoping for 50 to 55 on Monday. Market
opens I see 46 and pass hoping that it will go to
50. I come back an hour later it is at 25 and I
almost pass out. For the next hour I wait and
wonder until I see an opportunity at 35 and I bail.
Now I jump to PPOD ( my 2nd choice behind BAMM
and should of been my 1st ) at 10 1/8. I really think
I bought in at a good price even though it closed
lower. It has much better fundamentals than BAMM
and has not run up nearly as much. I am glad I made
the switch and am hoping to see 15 on PPOD this
week or next.

Posted: Nov 30 1998 9:07PM EST as a reply to: Msg 2924 by
Replies:View Replies to this Message

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:46 - ID#201145)
Aragorn III 50 Peso
Beautiful, I shall get one, Panda next. Kangaroo not bad either.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:51 - ID#20359)
Third in the House of ARAGORN...Namaste'...gulp and a puff to ya...
'Tis our way...'Tis our way...

Got goodwill...

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:52 - ID#212323)
This is the site from which I posted the graphic. Click on their 'Web Specials" link and scroll down. You can calculate for yourself the tiny premium to be found in the price.

I have had business operations with this group. They run a good ship.

This coin you mention...It does feel good in the hand. Two feel better!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:53 - ID#269409)
@ Alderberad....Gold coins
The key to your questions lies in your comment "Primary goal is I want silver and gold. Distant secondary goal is if I have it, it could be pretty."

Since coin attractiveness is a "distant" secondary goal, and since the rest of your questions indicate directly and indirectly that you aren't really interested in "Numismatic" ie collectible coin with substantial premiums, my answers are as follows;

1 ) Modern American Eagles are beautiful coins and an excellent way to own attractive bullion coins with minimal premium. Same could be said for Canadian Maples, & Austrian VP's which are beautiful in their own right, being "pure" Gold rather than an alloy, ( The Eagles have some copper alloy and a bit of silver making them more resilient to handling...all have a full Oz. of Gold content. ) The Mexican Libertads you mention are certainly a low premium option.

What all these bullion coins have in common, is that they have no collector value, since they are minted in huge quantities. Their small "premium" is a coinage or mintage value. It's not really an added cost since it's included in the price fluctuation of Gold whether or not you're on the buy or sell side, and tends to be about $20 to $25 pre coin.

It's true you can buy South African Krands for about $5.00 less, being that they continue to be "out of favor" in the global marketplace, but again, this just means you'll likely get $5.00 less for them when you sell, as opposed to the other bullion coins.

My only caution is that you buy from a large, low cost, well respected dealer. Kitco here, RJ's firm Monex, or go to any large bookstore such as Barnes & Knoble, pick up the latest copy of "Coin World" ( a weekly ) , and peruse the ads for best prices on bullion coins. You'll see pictures there of everything represented, ( Highly recommended ) , including all kinds of foreign bullion coins.

For Silver, American Eagles are a good bet as far as coins with beauty. They tend to have a $1.50 per coin premium, but again, this is factored into both the buy and sell prices. Again, there's a Canadian Maple Leaf version on the market ( lower premium ) and a Mexican Libertad version ( lower premium ) Again, readily available from larger dealers at good prices.

Junk silver bags of pre 64 silver U.S. coin were a good way to accumulate a few months ago, especially when they were trading at a discount to bullion, but with Y2K hype upon us, they now carry a substantial premium. ( As if lot's of local grocery store operators and gas station attendants will be accepting 1964 Quarters and giving us $1.00 + good in return in Y2K !! hahahaha!!!! )

Based on the info. and goals you gave me, I'd recommend you avoid the coins I personally favor.....the semi Numismatic class of U.S. $20.00 pieces ( Saint Gaudens / Liberty ) , and Silver pre 1921 U.S. dollars, & pre 1945/47 U.S. dimes and Halves. ( Mercury Dimes, Walking Liberty Halves ) .

Hope this helps.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 16:59 - ID#269409)
@ Aldebaran
Apologies for getting handle wrong, I have serious keyboard dyslexia, as all my posts flagrantly reveal.

Just wanted to add that Panda's and the British Gold coins, etc are all available in "Coin World" ads with photo's etc. also, with many firms for price comparison convenience. In great abundance there also, you'll find ads for small denomination Gold coins as low as 20th Oz. In fact there is a "series" of small Chinese Panda type coins, with varying designs being sold by some dealers.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:00 - ID#201145)
tolerant1 (NO NO NO Do you know what you have done?)
Another hobby! pity on me, now I shall have to sell my kenwood ts-520se so that I might have both the 20 and 50 peso coin. And the swiss 20 franc piece, I think thats the one with the pretty woman? Oh, just a few short hours ago, I lived in such happy ignorance, gold was a metal for storing wealth, now oh now it has become art that I must possess.

I had no avarice for gold until I saw these.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:03 - ID#219363)
Who can say, but my bet for why COMEX silver inventories are increasing is that it's the same reason inventories of everything else are increasing. Steel is sitting on the docks, pigs might be slaughtered instead of going to market, farmer's are having trouble getting a price on their crops, etc, etc. Why would silver be any different ? The producers are still producing, but the customers have just stopped buying. Is oil production up ? Has some big investor in barrels of oil suddenly dumped it back on the market ? No, just the customer's aren't buying it as much as they were and it's creating a glut. Could be wrong, but it sounds pretty good to me. Wonder what the traders are saying about it.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:05 - ID#269409)
@ RJ.... Platinum saves lives
Read an article lately that showed statistics for suicides....a drop in the number overall, partly due to a HUGE drop ( 95% I think ) of sucessful suicides from Carbon Monoxide poisoning a la auto exhaust. It seems the Platinum and Palladium catalysts are just too efficient at cleaning up the toxins in the exhaust to pull off suicide from it.

This got me to thinking the obvious, namely, Platinum ( and Palladium ) must be responsible for saving tens of thousands from lung cancer, other cancers, and various serious respiratory ailments, many of which can prove fatal.

Platinum is environmental. Platinum is our friend. Platinum actually adds something tangible to our helath and quality of life. Go Platinum......

Aragorn III
(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:05 - ID#212323)
Aldebaran--17:00...Indeed! There is happiness to be found in OLD MONEY!
Shop wisely.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:06 - ID#287358)
Your childrens' children will appreciate what we call "junk" Silver coins a lot more than plain old Silver bars. Your coin dealer can fill your investment needs, probably out of current stock. I once had a coin dealer friend who would allow me to pick a few nice coins from his day's purchases, to include in with 100.00 face that I would buy that day. That was in the days of 14.2 and 14.3 X. ( Times face value )

A lot of those junk Silver coins now have a slight numismatic premium. LGB touched on that idea in his very well-organized posting earlier. If you buy junk Silver coins today, you will at least have a chance at gaining a premium in the future, and you'll not get that with bars. Your grand-children will have great fun handling the coins, and looking them up in a priceguide.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:09 - ID#219363)
Court Narrows Home Search Policy
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday in a narrowing of privacy rights that people who visit someone's home for a short time do not have the same protection against a police search as the residents. Three justices said the ruling ignores the home's importance as "the most essential bastion of privacy."

Got Constitution ?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:09 - ID#20359)
Aldebaran, Namaste' gulp and a puff to me when you have a moment...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:10 - ID#269409)
@ RJ...PS
Sorry but I retain full rights to the exclusive "LGB Homeopathic Platinum body catalyst formula" ....a rememdy for removing toxins and heavy metals for our system.

I expect to make tens of millions on this forumla. I know many here at Kitco who would readily embrace such an unproven "treatment" regardless of any objective scientific data refuting it's effectiveness ( hehehehe )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:11 - ID#201145)
LGB thanks for the help
I will try to get only currently minted coins, but some of the old ones on the url tolerant1 posted they are pretty.

I don't like the small coins, someone posted about 1/20 oz pandas, there just so expensive compared to the 1oz coins, but the mexican 20 peso and 50 peso are just utterly astonishing.

but I am now in danger, if I find that I start reading coin magazines, I know that this newest disease will take hold. There are two good coin shops in the area here. For coins one or two at a time, I am reluctant to do mail order. Oh, a new hobby, but perhaps thrift will win out and I shall confine myself to the low premium stuff.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:16 - ID#224363)
Greenstone being courted???
Greenstone halted today pending news...Of course the news was a PR from the company stating that Nesbitt Burns has been hired to help maximize shareholder value.

Reads pretty much like they had a few offers and decided that maybe getting an investment advisor on board wasn't such a bad idea.

Should be fun to watch where it goes from here.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:25 - ID#20359)
and the beat goes on...and on...and on...devastation coming to a community near you...soon...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:27 - ID#45173)
@clone & Envy
Hiya, clone. I'm not so sure Hauspie is gonna make it with IBM and Gates moving into the space. But maybe they can buy some ISVs and get out of IBM's and Gate's way. I dunno.

Envy, look at it this way. Ten years ago PCs didn't have the displays or processor power at a low enough price to run graphical interfaces. The first industry created by cheaper hi-res color displays and bigger processors was desktop publishing. Then, as they got cheaper, lots of folks could afford machines that could run graphical apps like Internet browsers. Thus the WWW was born. The network infrustructure had been around for 20 years before that, waiting for cheap processors and displays to be invented. Now it's the infrustructure that's the limitor. 90% of the 'net is still running over old voice lines.

What does voice-to-text and text-to-voice mean? A whole new set of speech-based apps that can't exist now. Do you actually use the 'net to schedule travel? Most folks don't because the problem requires natural language dialoque. You want to say, "Tell me about all the flights from Houston to Los Angeles on the 23rd of July that cost less than $300" and have the thing give you the answer or ask you for qualifying info. You don't wanna keep filling in some HTML form over and over again. Yuk.

How about, "What are my appointments today?" and "Set up a one hour meeting with Envy at the first available hour in the West conference room."

And on and on.

You're wearing a mike. You're talking to the network. It's doing stuff for you. No computers anywhere to be seen.


(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:30 - ID#18357)
who said that dec 7th would be a turning point for gold?
i recall this being said. could someone elaborate--was it a cycle bottoming out. thanks.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:32 - ID#34883)
George Reisman takes a shot at Soros, not bad, but I still like The Hatt's evaluation: "He Kiteing, he's Kiteing I tell ya".

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:36 - ID#290456)

Boy, are you in dangerous territory....we can bust your budget in a hurry if you like pictures of coins. These aren't intended as advertisements... only pretty pictures. ( the auctions at for additional gold coin pictures - there are hundreds there )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:38 - ID#42114)
ChasAbar,re WB
They made him an offer he could'nt refuse.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:40 - ID#258273)
I am familiar with L&H. Spent a lot of time working with them. Designed a few user interfaces in my day. Made front page of WSJ. Got patents. Anyway, just trying to qualify my opinion....

L&H have the best stuff except for maybe IBM, but IBM has trouble getting it out the door. L&H gets lots of bleeding edge stuff from European Universities. Continuous innovation. Voice recognition is the future without a doubt. Enabled by all this processing power. L&H is a great long term play, but expect volatility and hope they don't get "absorbed" by MS. One of my choices for bottom fishing in the not too distant future.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:41 - ID#20767)

Does anyone know what's up with Campbell Resources ( CCH ) ? The stock has been exceptionally weak lately and traded 2.5 million shares today!

I've been trying to download the latest SEDAR .pdf files but have had no success.

Thanks for any assistance.

Bob in DC

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:49 - ID#219363)
I completely see what you're saying and think it'll all come to pass with AI advancements and all the other nifty new technologies, etc, but that wasn't what I was saying. What I was saying was - how much more money is to be made in PC sales now that they're a consumer item ? As a consumer, I fully expect all that stuff now ! What I meant by "the fix is in" is that the game has already been played, the players have already been positioned, and now we're just going through the motions. Used to be you could reasonably sell a 5000$US computer and make money. Now, even cooler computers are selling for 1000$US ( what the public expects to pay ) . By the time they're listening to my voice commands and, like I said, feeding the dog, I'll no doubt be getting them as the little toy surprise in a box of Cracker Jacks. Declining returns.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:52 - ID#256365)
Silverbaron Busted Budgets
I had been planning on buying 1oz of gold a month, and maybe 10-20oz of silver every couple of months. This dosn't have to change much and still allow me to buy the prettier coins. The local dealer wanted a high premium on Panda last time I was in because he would have had to order them. But I will see what is available at the other coin shop in town. I garden alot and I grow ancient meso-american food plants such as amaranth, quinoa, various chenepodium species and a old variety of corn that has its genetic roots in the Inca empire. If someone like me is going to own gold, it seems sensless not to have at least one each of those Mexican coins. I mean if you were into cars and some mint stamped out a Ford commerative 1oz, you would have to own it right? Or if you were into Ham radio, say there isn't a Marconi or Hertz or Faraday coin is there?

one a month... one a month.. no more than one a month...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:56 - ID#194311)
Resources amassing on the border...expect dollar dump soon.
I hazard a guess as to what they might be buying these who pryed th gold out of their peoples hands less than one year ago.

SKorean usable forex holdings at record 46.47 billion dollars [Nov 30]
SEOUL, Dec 1 ( AFP ) - South Korea's usable foreign exchange
reserves hit a record high of 46.47 billion dollars at the end of
November, a year after state coffers almost ran dry, official data
showed Tuesday.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:56 - ID#45173)
You did work for L&H too, eh? MS has a team of hundreds working on speech recognition. Already their tools ( SDKs ) are much better, although their engines still suck. IBM is way ahead on multiple language support in the continuous recognition area, where it's happening. Yes, IBM is big and stupid and they're making plenty of distribution errors. But they have a good track record of eventually figuring it out. Botton line, speech is an platform feature and MS is the platform company. They'll crush anyone trying to get into the space, except maybe IBM is IBM comes up with a pure speech-based OS that supports speech apps better than Windows ( a graphical OS ) with speech smooshed on top of it. How will MS kill the competition? Through a stranglehold on echnology distribution, the ISV market. Once MS starts to push speech engines and APIs through ADCU ( Application Customer Developer Unit ) , Dragon and L&H are dead ducks, IMHO.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:57 - ID#219363)
Boeing To Cut Up to 48,000 Jobs
SEATTLE ( AP ) -- Boeing Co. will cut as many as 48,000 jobs over the next two years as the company scales back production of several commercial jet lines, company officials said. Boeing blamed the cutbacks on the continuing Asian crisis. "Clearly, the economic slowdown in Asia is driving air traffic down which impacts our customers' plans and operations," said Alan Mulally, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group president. "Our actions today will match production to market demand to support our customers."
The "D" word.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:57 - ID#194311)
Currencies uniting hither and tither...
West Africa to issue common currency traveller's cheques

FREETOWN, Nov 30 ( AFP ) - Some seven million dollars' worth of
traveller's cheques are to be issued in February at commercial banks
in 16 west African countries, according to the West African Monetary
Agency, based here.
The WAMA regulates currency transactions for the Economic
Community of West African States ( ECOWAS ) .
"It is a means towards greater economic integration and the
establishment of a single currency unit in west Africa," George
Osaka, head of research at the agency, told reporters at the
The traveller's cheques, known as the West African Uunit of
Accounts ( WAUA ) , are to be issued through central ECOWAS banks, with
an exchange rate of 1.38 WAUA to the dollar.
"The biggest benefit is that much-needed foreign exchange will
be conserved and businessmen will no longer need to use the dollar
or ( British pound ) sterling in business transactions in the
sub-region," Osaka said.
The cheques, which will show the ECOWAS logo on one side and
flags of member states on the other, will be issued in denominations
of five, 10, 20 and 100.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:57 - ID#290456)

What ever you decide, take a look at getting at least one French 20 Franc Rooster. IMHO it is arguably the most beautiful of the foreign issues, and although small - rivals the St. Gaudens in many ways. Premiums on these aren't bad, usually 10-15% over spot gold.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 17:58 - ID#34883)
high flyers
Looking at the 10 biggest gainers from the NASDAQ today, I see none of the them have recuperated from their July-Sept. price drops, some free fall graphs there also. Small solace for my bump on a log Gold shares, but encouraging nevertheless.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:01 - ID#219363)
Crude Oil Futures Continue To Drop
Crude oil futures continued to drop through 12-year lows on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday as analysts remained pessimistic about world oil producers' ability reach an agreement to cut supplies that are glutting the market.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:10 - ID#219363)
Gov't To Buy More Beef
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Although cattle prices are on the rebound, the government announced Tuesday that it will buy another $20 million in beef to help producers.
Trade barriers mentioned as "income protection" in article.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:13 - ID#45173)
I wasn't listening. Sorry. You're correct. The PC biz has been in the throws of commoditization for a while now. I've worked with a lot of PC makers and they are all struggling to figure out how they're gonna get any profits from selling these things. This always happens in the hardware business. In the mini-computer days hardware companies were buying software companies to get their margins back up again. Now PC makers are acting as software resellers. Check out DellWare, for example. The sofware companies sell at a 40% discount. This business comprises a big chunk of income for PC makers. And it's only going to get bigger as hardware margins fall.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:19 - ID#219363)
Some Vehicle Sales Strong in Nov.
DETROIT ( AP ) -- Unabated growth in demand for sport utility vehicles and pickups, driven by a healthy economy and low gasoline prices, helped boost DaimlerChrysler's U.S. vehicle sales a healthy 7 percent in November and set a record for the month.
This is actually good news! No inventory problems, not deflationary. *grin*

Old Soldier
(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:23 - ID#185274)
Hey Alde, I'll help expand your gold and silver collection
Aldebaran 17:52 My wife is a gourmet cook. I am a pretty fare gardener. E-mail me info on which of those plants you mentioned can be grown in the Atlanta, GA area. I will be happy to pay for some seeds with silver or gold.

Gusto Oro
(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:32 - ID#430260)
Quoting ChasAbar from the last screen:

"Do you know, or would you hazard a guess as to why the Comex Silver
inventories are increasing? Seems to me that if Silver is being consumed
as before, there would never be a situation where inventories rise more
often than an occasional blip. It looks to me that " increase" is the
trend. And I don't see why inventory would come from London.
I *very much* doubt that Warren Buffett has sold any of his Silver. I do
not think it is his style to study a ( Silver ) market for 30 years, and
then sell for the gains of a couple of months. And even if I am wrong, I
do not think the above inventory increases are from him. A big question
that I have is, "Why hasn't Warren Buffet bought MORE Silver?"
I ask for your comments. Thank you."

This is an excellent question. I've wondered myself. First, I think we do have WB at least leasing out his silver. Second, this is not the first time stocks have stalled or risen on the COMEX. I seem to remember this happening in both '96 and '97 and yet look at how much more silver was in the COMEX then. I remember thinking early last year how great it was to be under 200 million and it seemed to take forever to get down below 100 million. I bet by the end of January we flirt with 50 million. When things pick up we seem to lose a couple million or more a week and several weeks like that will do the trick. Does anyone know anything about scrap supplies? Perhaps a temporary glut there has stalled us. Don't think it will last. --Al

Tantalus Rex
(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:42 - ID#295111)
Murphy's Laws
Here's what Bill hass to say as POG went down 4 bucks.....

Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary

11/30/98 - Gold $292.70 down $4.00 - Silver $4.85 down 7.5 cents

Technicals -

The genie is in the bottle. The deflation play bears stormed out of their short term hibernation
over the US holiday period with guns blazing and sent the price of gold down from the high
$290 level for the umpteenth time. $300 resistance, basis Feb, held like the Rock of Gibraltar,
again. Today, may have been different, but last week the open interest on Comex dropped
even further to 148,491 contracts as the trade exited short positions. Gold is now back to the
middle of its trading range for the past year or so.

Silver is testing the bottom of its recent trading range and needs to hold this area or it could
suffer in the period ahead. We think it will hold. The premiums in India at 11% now, remain
firm and indicate ample demand from that sector. With copper and oil making lows today,
silver was under spec attack by deflation players and could have really collapsed. It did not. If
the past recent period is an indicator, the price of silver will turn around sharply just when it
looks its worst.

Fundamentals -

In our last Midas ( Nov. 24, and can be found by going to the library below ) we spoke of the
quiet buzz going around that the gold price is being controlled. For some anecdotal evidence,
we offered up Alan Greenspan's own comment: House Banking Committee, July 24, Alan
Greenspan, " central banks stand ready to lease ( i.e. lend ) gold in increasing quantities should
the price rise".

After the last interest rate cut by our Fed, we had a visceral reaction to Alan Greenspan's
strong public mention of low commodity prices as one of his main reasons for the cut. This
comment really hit home after his previous July 24 comment about gold. It appeared he was
subtly making it clear that a rising gold price would not allow him to do what he wanted to do
for the reasons he wanted to do them; certainly, a rising gold price would make his rate cut
decisions more controversial. Therefore, we feared he might do what he could to keep the gold
price from going up. His comments left an indelible effect.

And Alan Greenspan is accomplishing what he set out to do, so far. Certainly the most
esteemed economist in the US, Ed Hyman, thinks so. member,
George S, alerted me to Hyman's recent analysis according to Bloomberg News, ( Nov. 27 ) :
"ISI's Hyman Says Gold Signals More Bond Gains".

" The bond market's favorite economist is telling investors that the Treasury market rally of
1998 isn't over-- and the price of gold is one reason. Ed Hyman, ranked the No. 1 economist
on Wall Street for the past 19 years in an Institutional Investor poll, says the fact that the
metal's price isn't far from a two-decade low suggests that the Federal Reserve may not be
finished reducing interest rates, after three cuts in the past two months"..

"Since the 1980's, the final rate cut in a series of reductions has been preceded by a spurt in
gold prices, reflecting expectations for growth and the potential for faster inflation. Yet at
today's price of $297 an ounce, the metal hasn't risen much from a 19 year low of $2.77.90
on Aug. 28."

Let us not forget that the rate cuts, by the Fed's own admission, were initially undertaken
because of systemic risk problems and specifically the strain caused by out of control
derivative traders. That systemic risk has not gone away yet. Therefore, the need for low
interest rates and probably more rate cuts. If the price of gold were to take off now, would the
esteemed Ed Hyman feel the same way he did on Nov. 27. Hyman has a big following. How
would other economists react to a popping gold price? Would Alan Greespan cut the interest
rates with such chutzpah? Would the stock market rally like it has?

It is clear why Alan Greenspan wants the gold price to stay down. But what Ed Hyman does
not realize ( as it is not in his realm to focus on this subject like we do ) is that the gold price is
being held down. That is a big difference from sloshing around below $300 on its own natural
accord. The gold genie is being corked in the bottle by Alan Greenspan and other central
bankers. They are buying time, or at least, trying to buy time. In past Midas' we have given
you many anecdotal examples of how that is being done.

If Alan Greenspan be against us, who can be with us? Are we foolishly betting against the
casino by vigorously advocating a very bullish stance here? No we are not! There is a bigger
casino out there and that is the world casino. The natural mine supply/ demand deficit is
probably somewhere in the 800 tonne per year category and will be much larger at these price
levels as pre Asian crises demand returns. That deficit must be met by central bank selling or
bullion bank lending. Pre EMU selling will have subsided by year end, so bullion lending must
pick up that slack. Since some market participants believe, the big league, pre EMU CB selling
has ended by now, it makes sense that all of a sudden there is a "buzz" about U.S. led, lending
initiatives in the past couple of months.

What is important to understand is that as the big pre EMU selling is grinding down, Asian
demand is beginning to come back nicely. We have alerted Midas followers many times to the
fact that the Asian official sector has been buying for months. That is why gold price
breakdowns have seen no follow through. And gold buying by the public in some Asian
countries is also resurgent. According to John Brimelow:

"At virtually 20 tonnes, October's Tokyo gold imports raised 1998 cumulative by 43 %, being
the biggest monthly volume since Nov 1995." As the kilo bar premiums in Tokyo are running
at 80 cents to $1.30, after a serious discount in the second quarter, healthy imports are likely
to continue."

There is more, and the more is what our Treasury Department and Fed do not want us to
think about. While the CRB Index, copper and oil are at, or making, making multi-year lows
lows, the price of gold is about $15 off its lows and trading midway in its range for the past
year. We suggest there is a good reason for that and the reason is that gold's monetary role is
on its way back to visibility and proper respect. The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming:

1. Our sources tell us that an Asian IMF type of institution is in the works. It will be Yen
based with a gold backing.

2. The Europeans, all of a sudden, are floating a euro gold coin concept that will require
substantial gold tonnage for minting purposes.

3. The Russians have cut the VAT tax on bullion and are encouraging gold consumption.

4. With the US printing presses working overtime and M3 exploding, gold gains in relative
value every day.

5. Coin sales around the world are surging. U.S. bullion coin demand is at 11 year highs. Y2K
potential mega problems are having a big impact here.

The bottom line is: the investment demand for gold is flashing a big green light.

Ironically, we will use the research analysis of the highly regarded Kevin Crisp of JP Morgan
for our own purposes of focusing on the Greenspan led, lending cabal, even though we it
appears that we completely disagree on the price outlook for gold and what is really going on
in the gold market. The title of his Nov. 17 piece out of London is:" Lease rates offer clues for
gold prices".

We will focus on his comment, "Combination of factors push lease rates lower"- "The level of
lease rates reflects a combination of factors. The recent fall in rates suggest that despite a
global credit crunch, there has been no noticeable withdrawal from the market by central bank
lenders of gold. To an extent the opposite has been true, with "lending" on a swap or
collateralized basis from emerging market sovereigns tending to increase, reflecting a need for
currency liquidity."

According to Kevin ( JP Morgan is part of the bullion lending cabal and has quite the profit
motive that it continue without controversy ) , the official sector has been increasing its gold
lending while credit constraints are everywhere else. How can this be? We have repeatedly
highlighted the fact to you that our sources tell us the gold loans outstanding are about 7 to
8,000 tonnes and could be as high as 14,000 tonnes. Yearly mine production is about 2550
tonnes. If there ever was a market where prudent credit should be contracting, it is this one.
There is enormous danger here of a gold buying panic at some point in time and force majeurs
all over the place. Bankers, wake up! Alan Greenspan's wink is only good for so long.

Thank goodness, we are not a lonely voice in the wind, or worse, peeing into it ( although it
was a bit misty here in N.H. today ) . In our last Midas we told you that we have heard that
certain bullion banks are in trouble for this very reason and that the word is getting out. That
word is that if the price of gold takes off, these bullion banks have extended too much gold for
lease and are exposed to defaults.

We believe Merrill Lynch understands the danger and that is why they have pulled out of the
gold lending game and ceased commodity derivative operations. And then last Wednesday a
real surprise:

Bloomberg -Nov 26 - Sydney - " Normandy Mining Ltd. said it will realize 85 percent of the
value of its forward gold sales booked over the next 10 years, giving it a profit of A$650
million. The Australian miner, one of the world's 10 largest gold miners, said it bought back
4.1 million ounces of its previously contracted gold sales, and says it replaced the sales with

Reuters- Nov. 25 ( US time ) - Sydney - " The transaction will simultaneously eliminate potential
bank counter party risk," Normandy said in a statement.

In other words, it is our opinion that Normandy Mining understands what we are telling you
and have acted accordingly by shifting a good portion of their short position from futures to
puts ( which limits their exposure in the market place in the event of a price explosion ) . They
know that something could trigger an incredible short covering rally in the price of gold and
they do not want to be involved in some of the market delivery problems that could develop.
Thus a major change in strategy. This is an important event for the gold market. It is
telegraphing us what may be to come or, at least, what concerns are beginning to circulate in
the gold producer community.

What we have just outlined to you is why we are so bullish on the precious metals. For every
action, there is a reaction. When the gold genie gets out of the bottle, by hook or by crook, he
will not be a happy camper. His rage will be taken out on the shorts and the price of gold is
going to go up faster and farther than almost anyone thinks. $335 gold is the first stop near
term, then $400, proceeded by a panic move to $600 the ounce when $425 is taken out. It is
only a matter of time before this price process unfolds.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

The XAU was trounced today and closed at 70.96 down 3.65 but is over 22 points off of its
August lows.

Australian gold output declined for the third quarter in a row. This year's production will be
only slightly less than last year's record output, but exploration cutbacks are sited as a reason
for the cutback in trend output. Australia's producers have not been the only ones to cut
exploration budgets. This will affect world gold mine supply in the years to come.

According to T. Hoare & Co's Rhona O'Connell in a Nov. 30 Reuters interview," Less metal
for hedging, and miner's recent tendency towards buying put options in preference to classic
forward hedges could limit the supply of fresh metal to the market next year, she added."

"It is entirely possible that the impact next year of the mining industry's hedging activity could
actually be a negative number," she said, adding the net effect of hedging over the past ten
years had been to add 240 tonnes per year." If Rhona is correct, this represents a figure that is
almost 10% of world mine production, so it could be a rather important development that has
not been factored into the market yet.

The Hong Kong tael premiums were 30 cents as of today, and are just that, premiums instead
of discounts. Anecdotal evidence of the return of a stronger Asian market.

Treasury Secretary Rubin's old firm, Goldman Sachs, was the big seller of gold on the opening
today. A real surprise with the previous close of the new active trading month, February, at

We have made comment of the old wink program by our officialdom about lending gold, etc.
According to a Reuters report, Asia Dresdner Bank Chairman, Rolf Willi, said in an interview
at the India Economic Summit in New Delhi that " gold is today no longer a monetary
instrument and this means that we will find ourselves, unfortunately, $100 lower than what we
have today."

Dresdner is a gold lender. Any question as to where at least some of the Greenspan
orchestrated lending is coming from. It becomes more intriguing when one realizes fellow
German bank, Deutsche Bank, bailed out tottering Bankers Toast ( Trust ) for some enormous

Do not despair. This report is very good news. Dresdner was one of the big German banks at
the forefront of the bull gold market which peaked at the start of the 1980's. Here is a quote
from the same article. " When it hit $850 we were all smoking big cigars, just to see it go phut,
" he ( Willi ) recalled from his days as head of treasury and trading in Frankfurt. He probably
was smoking a cigar in this interview too.

While Willi was smoking whatever, Bundesbank council member, Jans-Juergen Koebnick said
in a Bridge New interview that selling excess German central bank gold reserves after
Eurpoean Monetary Union next year was "no topic at all.'' Koebnick also did not expect other
eurozone central banks to dump gold on the market. This completely contradicted Willi.

The U.S. savings rate was negative for the second consecutive month in row. Why save- buy
the internets. A few more hiccups like today though and 3% might look a little more appealing.
The Santa Rosa Democrat reported over the weekend health insurance premiums are set to go
up 8 to 20% this coming year. Prepare for a big flap here. This is about mid range of the M3

The Rubicon - $300 gold and $5 silver. When these resistance points are both crossed
decisively and hold, it should then signify the true end of the 19 year precious metals bear
market. This is no Einstein statement but it might help those investors that want to add to their
precious metals holdings or initiate new ones. Prices north of these strong resistance points
ought to bring the gold and silver shares back from oblivion. We remain strongly committed to
them now and continue to accumulate as we believe a major positive turn of events for gold
and silver is likely to come out of nowhere.

Today was no fun, but perhaps it might be helpful to keep everything in perspective by
keeping in mind how quickly AND dramatically the precious metals outlook can change. From
our own Greg Pickup who sent me this today from, "Icicles in the Greenhouse" - " Dr. Imbrie
of Brown University adds chilling details showing that the end of an interglacial period can be
sharp and dramatic, as indicated by mastodons found in Siberian and North American ice
packs, so quickly frozen that wildflowers they were chewing were still fresh between their
teeth." Gold bears take note!

Bill Murphy ( Midas )

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of
the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets
ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a
contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the
1998 Gold Book Annual.


(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:43 - ID#254288)
Opinion please

Is the present price of Pan American Silver reflecting the sluggish silver price or is it discounting the possible danger of losing the Dukat Mine if Russia's problems continue?

Gusto Oro
(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:47 - ID#430260)
Can anyone help me with these?

1. What is the demand for gold?
2. How much does it cost per Oz to mine?
3. What is total world mining capacity?
4. What does it cost to bring more capacity to mine on line?
5. What are the gold reserves that can supply demand?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:49 - ID#290456)

PAASF does have political risk insurance for the Russian venture, so they would only be out the reserves if something were to happen in Russia to make them lose their interest. Anyone who is worried about this is long gone from the stock, IMHO. The market has discounted most of the risk.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:49 - ID#237299)
Envy: AI/voice recog
The AI is already reasonably well developed, all they need now is to get is at a lower overhead. ( cpu overhead )

I don't know about your area- but in mine when I call directory assistance, the operator comes on in a sweet voice, asks me what number I'm looking for, I say some name in some city- and then the operator gives the number. But it's not a human. I've even tried to trick it up by talking fast, or using odd syntax- most of the time it gets it right or narrows it down close enough that it intercepts to a human who then asks me if it was A or B. I've never been able to stump it completely.

This always amazes me.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:52 - ID#386245)
Help wanted
Can any of my CanaMerkan mates point me to a URL about Augusta Resource Corporation ( Canadian Dealing Network ) . Cheers, Nick.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 18:58 - ID#386245)
To my fellow 'apocalyptic nuts'--from a finpost
"The Y2K glitch is not likely to be a blessing, but don't let apocalyptic nuts convince you that it's such a curse that you need to sell your stocks, withdraw your cash, buy guns and stock up on water. Just cool it."

The writer is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:01 - ID#290456)
Y2K Failure rate projections by country & industry

Please excuse if this has been posted here before.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:02 - ID#45173)
Small vocabulary speech recognition already doesn't need much CPU power. The technology is statistical. Trying to guess which word you're saying if you might be saying one of 200,000 words is a lot hard than picking out one name from the names of all the cities in the USA.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:08 - ID#343171)
nick, only found: E-mail:

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:15 - ID#294232)
The Dow will crash before Christmas.....
My take is that the Americans will wake up before Christmas and begin to unload their over-priced paper. How Greenspan and Rubin put the U.S. to sleep is beyond me but if the truth be known both these men would resign tommorow if they thought they could get away with it. The Global Economy is in shambles and there is a massive coordinated effort to keep the facts away from the general public.Lets face it, Japan is ready to implode under debt levels far beyond levels disclosed one month ago. With oil prices collapsing how is Mexico and others going to make up the difference in revenues. The Middle East is beginning to understand the words cash crunch. Oh yeh what about Russia? Then again how about Hong Kong? Not to mention China. Why do they play us for idiots?
All the while the news blackout is enforced the talking heads or in other words the sleezy promoters on CNBC continue to pitch their story of the market can only go up. Clinton sits back and masterminds the entire events using Greenspan and Rubin as puppets. Wake up America you are being lead down the path into what will go down in history as the largest ever redistribution of wealth. Gold is ready to explode as lease rates jumped 150% over the last two days! The paper is warming and that leads to smoke and then to fire. Do your families a favor and cash in those Mutual Funds before you find yourself standing in line hoping to get pennies on the dollars for your hard earned savings. This may sound drastic but the time is very near and the pain will be a repeat of 1929. One last request for Mr. Rubin, SHOW US THE GOLD SIR!

Who Cares?
(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:15 - ID#242214)
EJ - HOW many cities was that?
Dang, EJ, just how many cities do you think the U.S. has?

Heck, just my DOT database alone had almost 50,000, not to
mention the various permutations of Las Angeles, Los Angeles,
Los Angles, Los Angelos, etc. : )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:20 - ID#219363)
The AI part wasn't for the voice recognition, well, not exactly. What I was talking about was the context sensitive stuff. We've got systems out there that can look up "Baby" and "Car" and "Envy" and associate the sounds with words, but it takes AI to understand the context of something. The telephone computer might be made to understand "I'd like to speak to an operator", but probably not "Hey, 'sup, gimme the 411 girl". Recognition you can do with some cute transforms on a signal processor, understanding is something else. Even if the computer recognizes the words "Hey what's up Give me the 411 girl", it'll have a tough time figuring out what the hell that means. Lots of ambiguity in the human languages of the world and we're a long way from Hal.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:21 - ID#254288)
Nick@C & Silverbaron

Silverbaron; thanks for your opinion, I've had been considering PAASF for its Dukat, still a bit gunshy.

Nick@C; has a bit on them, not a whole lot but it might help. When at the site scroll down and put name in field for Canadian Public Cos.

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:30 - ID#294232)
Mr. Soros and his blood money!
Mr. Soros has one purpose in life and that is to accumulate money at any cost! He has caused more worldwide pain than most dictators as he swoops in like a vulture on his wounded prey. Few look at the aftermath of his money making opportunities. I am sickened that the U.S. use him as a financial consultant and not surprised that his love affair with the IMF is just another means of covering his losses. The collapse is near and I look forward to watching this vulture become the wounded prey.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:51 - ID#254321)
The Hatt: Given the powerful group that has sponsored George Soros, I doubt any real harm will come to him, IMHO. What puzzles me is why he is so outspoken, and perceives himself as a messenger of financial advice to the world's leaders.

I think he is merely an agent or vehicle for powerful behind the scenes investment groups, such as the Rothschilds. Just imagine how rapidly your personal wealth would grow if you had the Rothschilds information sources at your fingertips.

However, alot of what he says does make sense -- just about as much as anything else these days. So -- I read what he says, even if I do not respect what he does.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 19:59 - ID#254321)
G'Nite Upover and Downunder -- logging off for chores!

Here's one for you if you did not already know.

HAL of '2001' fame had its name well chosen:

H for I,

A for B,

L for M.


Wonder why it was 2001 ,and not 2000. Well at least that implies we made it through y2k. Well, we did make it through 1000AD, and 1500AD, despite the fears to the contrary.

And -- we are actually making another space station. Perhaps we will make it to the stars in spite of ourselves.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:00 - ID#348129)
@Some +++ news from Kaplan
The short-term lease rate for gold has moved up sharply in recent days, climbing from 0.5% last Friday to 1.2% Tuesday. Meanwhile, the total open interest for COMEX gold futures is at an unusually low historic level, indicating an unwillingness by participants to take either side of the market.
Japanese October 1998 gold imports totaled nearly 20 tons, up 262% from September 1998, and up 145% from October 1997.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:03 - ID#386245)
Muchas grassyass.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:05 - ID#344225)
@ Nick RE: Your mystery Company

I got a hit here. It seems pretty complete.
Out of curiosity.....wots up?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:07 - ID#190411)
Explorer, your 16:34, makes sense.
Let's see some more.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:11 - ID#344225)
@ NICK RE: News Release on your mystery company
Augusta Resource Corp -

Chile property dropped; director resigns

Augusta Resource Corp
Shares issued 8,396,000
1998-11-23 close $0.65
Monday Nov 30 1998
Mr. Donald Clark reports
Further to news in Stockwatch May 13, 1998, the company will not be
proceeding further with the acquisition of the Los Posadas copper property in Chile, resulting from the inability to finance the cash payments and work expenditures due to current market conditions. The company has renegotiated the terms of the transaction with the vendor and an affiliate company, Augusta Corp.,
( Augusta acquired the transaction from Augusta Gold Corp., which had
introduced the transaction to the company ) , whereby the payment of 2,000,000 shares has been eliminated. The company will continue to be liable for out of pocket costs of $221,638 incurred by the vendor, American Mercantile Finance Corp., and $469,055 due to Augusta. The amount due to Augusta is $13 ,055 higher than reported in the May 13, 1998 news release, due to the receipt of subsequent invoices. The company has negotiated the amount due to Augusta to include $48,627 in geological services provided by Augusta personnel on the
company's Blue Moon property, for a total of $517,682. The $221,638 due to American Mercantile and the $517,682 due to Augusta will be changed into convertible debentures payable by Oct. 31, 2000, bear an interest rate of 6 per cent and convertible into shares at 50 cents per share to American Mercantile and 65 cents per share to Augusta. Augusta is an affiliate of the company with certain common directors and management and the issuance of the convertible debenture to Augusta is subject to disinterested shareholder approval.

The company is presently negotiating the acquisition of a property in Mexico and is seeking financing for the acquisition and to complete work expenditures on the Blue Moon property in California.
The company has granted employee incentive stock options to purchase up to 75,000 shares; 25,000 options vest immediately, 25,000 vest in one year and 25,000 vest in two years. The options are exercisable at 65 cents per share for five years ending Nov. 27, 2003. Antonio Melicio De Quadros has resigned as a member of the board of directors. No one is being appointed at this time to replace Mr. De Quadros.
Currently there are 8,396,000 shares issued and outstanding.
( c ) Copyright 1998 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:16 - ID#254321)
One last comment -- no US market crash in 1998 (IMHO)
The Hatt: Do you live in the US? In my neck of the woods, the individual consumer types ( shoppers ) are so busy that all the major shopping centers are jammed. Since approx 50% of the US GNP is from consumer purchases, the downturn in capital equipment items is not likely to have an immediate effect. Right now the US consumer is benefitting from the deflationary events in the rest of the world.

Next year is likely be a different story, as the US consumer will become more aware of what is happening around the world, and purchases will fall off. The dramatic rise in the purchases of gold coins is a sign of rising uncertainty levels. Also -- perhaps it will take an inflationary or credit shock of some kind to generate a wakeup call.

I could be wrong. Perhaps we ( the USA ) will sail into 2010-2015 ( end of baby boom ) without a hitch, but I doubt it. The information revolution is propping up our economy, but it probably is not enough.

We were last to get hit in 1929, IMHO. But -- we were hit very hard. Americans tend to do everything in excess -- booms and busts. It is somehow ingrained in our nature. I still remember vivid accounts of real estate land booms that went bust many years ago, with farmers trying to figure out what to do with all those emptly lots and empty streets. I think they just plowed it all over for crops when it was profitable to grow things once again.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:18 - ID#201146)
Old Soldier plants need email address
I'll be at work tonight so I will only have access to my email. Send me an email there, nearly all the plants I grow should grow for you as I am in zone 6. There is a golden amaranth.

Jim Bob
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:20 - ID#249395)
Tantulus Rex RE: murphy
I was wondering if you have license or a release to copy Murphy's
workproduct in full when the same is sold by subscription to the
LeMetropole Cafe. I thought it strange to see copyright - Your name
and Kitco - following your name heading. Maybe the material can and
should be discussed, but copying word for word seems larcenous to me.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:22 - ID#219363)
That was nifty about HAL, never noticed.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:25 - ID#344225)
No. It just wont happen. The sheep are mesmorized by TV.

Our children, who now have the reins of power watch TV, &
they believe what they see & hear. CNBC drones on and on,
and they believe it all. The spinmeisters spin their web
of BS & the yuppies, who have only known TV from Captain
Kangaroo on, just soak it all in as gospel truth.

Every 70 years, we are doomed to learn from experience!!!

It's time again.

Did you see Micro Soft and Intel soar today? Just look at the
Internet stocks.... What happened to the importance of PE
ratios? When did profit become a dirty word?

Some mining shares are selling at 3.00 per ounce for reserves
that are proven. Yadda da yadda da...

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:29 - ID#294232)
JTF/ please be careful...
While the Middle East was handing out gas masks Greenspan and Rubin have been handing out rose coloured glasses. I wish I was wrong about this emminent crash and if it turns out I am I will be the first to show up at Kitco for my lashes. I know of 48,000 that have just decided to cut back on this years xmas shopping.......

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:29 - ID#298259)
Boardreader...CCH News...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:32 - ID#344326)
@ Jim Bob
The "Kitco Copyright" occurs whenever a post is longer than a certain amount of words. As far as Bill Murphy goes, I had asked him if I could reprint his commentary on Kitco. He has no problem. It gives him more exposure. Articles are reposted here all the time. Tantalex Rex was clear it was Bill Murphy who wrote that, not him. There is no problem.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:33 - ID#18355)
homestake gets prime resources...
the deal is done.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:34 - ID#350194)
@The Hatt, JTF, Soros, Evil and Reality
I have said this before ( about a year ago? ) here, and I will repeat myself. I do not understand the logic behind attacking a man simply because he makes BIG money SHORTING an overpriced currency. If he didn't others would very shortly. If it's overpriced its overpriced. HE does not cause the weakness in the currency any more than the dutchboy with his finger in the dike caused the crack. I doubt very much that he has evil intentions such as the Darth Vader you portray him to be. In fact, as I understand it, he has GIVEN many of his multi-millions to try and bolster eastern European institutions that were in desparate need. When I mentioned this a year ago I was told that he also was a force for left-wing drug liberalisation forces in N.A. In this case I guess my point is that he, as you and I, is living his own philosophy, seems to be trying to make changes to society according to his own precepts of good and evil and whether we agree with everything he does or does not do is no reason to claim that he is evil. Especially the speculative 'leveling the field' of foreign currencies aspect, which seems to draw the venom of many, seems, to me, rather an odd reason to hate a person. A currency is weak and collapses not due to Mr. Soros' manipulation, but due to the gross errors of judgement of the political guardians of the public trust in those countries. THEY are the people that you should blame. When the fiat dollars of the US, Canada, Britain, Italy, Argentina, Brazil etc. collapse, ( as they surely will in our lifetime ) , are you going to burn all the present investors of REAL MONEY, ( duh, uh, oh yeah - GOLD and SILVER ) , at the stake, or are you going to admit that you were so easily hoodwinked by the minions of the present day bankers/government coalition? Soros - believe it or not, is not the cause of evil. He is just a pion in the grand scheme.

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:37 - ID#294232)
Charles Keeling/ Out and out fraud....
About a month ago I questioned my Canadian Bank about their exposure to the derivatives market only to be told that it is not availiable to customers or shareholders. So the ponzi game will continue until the mass fraud is exposed. Buy physical gold and silver and sleep at night. By the way did you not know that starving wolves donot eat plump little sheep.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:37 - ID#344225)
@ The Hatt RE: Your 19:15 is a keeper
Yes indeedy! AG & RR are trapped with no honorable way out.

AG is scheduled to retire...soon. RR tries to resign every
6 months, but Clinton wont let him.

It's those two guys alone who are keeping WJC in office.
Of course...IMHO...NOT...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:38 - ID#288186)
crazytimes; I like reading Bill Murphy's comments. They're sensible and very
encouraging. Of course, I like to read ANYTHING that gives good solid
information as to why we should be BULLISH ON GOLD in the near term!
I know you have posted his comments here in the past, and just wanted to
say.....Thank You! Fox-man

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:45 - ID#294232)
Mooney/ please read my post on Soros again.
I never stated that he set out to cause human hardship and suffering what I did say is his money making schemes have caused much pain and suffering. If he had any concious at all this vulture would measure the importance of his next score against the aftermath as it relates to human beings. His day is coming, you get what you give in life and this sucker has given nothing!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:45 - ID#329186)
Charles Keeling@HATT ID#344225
the sheople are mesmorised by TV.

With all the tricks being employed does anybody have any knowledge or know if anyone tests to see if Subliminal messges are being pushed through the TV systems around the world?

go gold


Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:46 - ID#344225)
@ The Hatt RE: Starving Wolves
If you put that blurb about "STARVING WOLVES not Eating Fat Little Sheep"
on TV, and had Al Gore there talking about this "fact", everyone
watching the BOOB TUBE just might buy it. Spin it, & win it.

Right now they are introducing WOLVES back into the wild. The old
guys out west are popping them off at a rapid clip.

WHO IS the government to tell anyone what to do.??? huh?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:46 - ID#350194)
@Tantalus and ALL Re: LONG Posts
No matter what Tantalus your post at: "Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 18:42
Tantalus Rex ( Murphy's Laws ) ID#295111:" Was just WAY TOO long for unoriginal material. ( If it had been yiour own original stuff or a critique THAT would be a different matter. Just give a precis or a URL. Save all our time and Bart's space. Thanks.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:47 - ID#344326)
@ Mooney and Soros
I am no expert, but have read that Soros has taken certain positions and then "leaked" news that increases the value of his position which he then sells . I believe he did that with gold a few years back. Not fair play by any means. As far as giving millions away, I would say that generosity is measured not by what you give but by what you have left. I am sure that whatever he has given, it has not impacted his lifestle in any way. I also read that he attacked the ringgit, causing much devastation in Malaysia. I don't believe the ringgit was overvalued but I could be wrong.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:48 - ID#350288)

Christmas crash. I doubt it will happen. If markets get shaky again, all AG needs do is chop another .25 basis and the Dow will fly into the new year. These guys are determined to fly this thing till it runs out of gas, at which time it will crash and burn. I still feel they have a few more tricks up their sleeve that could postpone this thing in to mid or late 1999. We'll See

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:50 - ID#344326)
@ Mooney
"Save all our time and Bart's space"

Please speak for yourself and not Kitco. Thank you

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:51 - ID#344286)

E-me, would like to discuss a Canadian Carlin micro-gold off line.


(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:52 - ID#350194)
@The Hatt
Maybe I'm believing the man's own press too much ( from one of his books ) but as I understood it he had donated Mega-Millions.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:54 - ID#219363)
48000 layoff
It's not that many people. Glanced at the census site and it says that in 1996 there were 133 million folks above 16 years old, the "civilian labor force". So if unemployment were at an even 5 percent, that'd be about 6 1/2 million folks not working. What's another 48000, few small towns destroyed, oh well. But then that Exxon-Mobile deal is another 9000, and there's all the contractor's and businesses that rely on those people and those businesses, and their employees, and the reports keep coming in, and, hmm.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:56 - ID#20767)
Frustrated: Thank You!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:57 - ID#188386)
Pentagon now interested in alternative energy lifestyle?
"The Washington Times answered in its "Inside the Beltway" column a question about the "weird" looking thing being built beside of the Pentagon. Not to worry was the reply; it is a state of the art, 25KW solar electric generator.
The above is from: "65 Signs of Y2k Trouble", at

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:58 - ID#344225)
@ CPO RE: Subliminal Messages
Many years ago, when I was a theatre manager, I used
subliminal messages in the "coming soon trailers" to

It works. I been there and done that.

I am dead serious about the TV "sell job" that can be done
on people. My Mom believes everything she reads in the
paper. My kids have a tendency to believe what they see
on TV.

Just go figure: Why do the Politicians spend the $ they do
on TV?????? It works. Tell lies, and the sheep will

WJC says: We now have the first budget surplus in twenty years.
The sheep believe it. Fact is, he just moved ( the day before )
all of the SS funds over to the General Budget.

Severaal days later he says: Now that we have a surplus,
I think we should "SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY FIRST". And all
the dumb F* sheep believed it.

TV wins. I think we all need to change our investment
strategy. We know that we are right, but we simply can not
overcome the POWER of TV. Children who grew up watching
TV are simply brain washed by this insidious plug in baby

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:58 - ID#350194)
Check back over the last few years, my friend, and you will realise that many of us here have discussed this subject many times, including Bart himself, when posters have gone overboard and reprinted excessively long articles that use up Kitco's valuable band-width. AND in asking for co-operation in this matter ANY individual is thus speaking in defense of this site and thus for Kitco and ALL. Peace be with you, my friend, in these CRAZYTIMES!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 20:59 - ID#254321)
Comments appreciated
The Hatt: Not all Americans are blinded by the media hype that supports the markets and WJC -- same PR organization, IMHO. Most of my money is in cash, waiting for the sign to reinvest in gold equities. I made a nice 10% profit in the last 3 months -- with only 1/3 of liquid assets at risk. Should have bought more pre-1933 gold coins, IMHO. Even spouse is noticing.

I share your concern for the world outside the US. Our president is quite effective at reading the tea leaves ( US voter polls ) and giving us what we 'think' we want with relatively little concern about the rest of the world.

With the exception of that fellow who was nominated as the US representative to the UN ( under Madeline Albright's vociferous objections ) , our foreign affairs efforts have been less than stellar. I fear that we will become more internalized, not less if our economy falters, when the world needs a little guidance toward peace.

As someone famous once said,

'The seeds of the next war are sown during peacetime'.

Winston Churchill, I think.

Both before and after WWII he was generally ignored by the British people.

Unfortunately it is human nature not to place much effort on future problem areas during good times -- and then when really hard times return we have better world leaders -- a little late. By that time, the work needed to correct the problems is much greater.

Well -- on the other hand - things are probably better than what they were before WWII. The Balkan area does need some attention given to it -- and at least that is being done -- sort of. And -- Isreal and Palestine do seem to be getting somewhere. I think both sides are very aware of what failure to achieve peace means -- it is fortunate that they do not need very much outside help, as our leaders seem incapable of doing so. But -- the Russian problem does not seem to be getting any better, and a fascist type government there would be disastrous for the rest of the world. Too bad the more admirable members of the Russian church got wiped out during the communist years. Ditto for some of their political leaders.

Some think it will take two generations in Russia to repair the damage done by communism. In the meanwhile, the west is blamed, and there may not be enough time before another undesireable totalitarian government takes over.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:01 - ID#386245)
Charles Keeling@info on Augusta Res Corp(AUGC)O.T.C. in Canada
Thanks mate. The property in Mexico they are buying is the one I am interested in as it is being sold by a little Aussie company ( MGL--Mogul ) .
HUGELY prospective for silver. Excellent drilling results. MGL shareholders will also get a chunk of AUGC stock. This is one of my very favourite 10-baggers to be--so wanted to find out about the Canuck Company I'll end up owning. If you want a little flutter on silver...

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:03 - ID#294232)
Mapleman/ last ditch effort in 1929....
A series of interest rate cuts and massive reflation!The printing presses are running overtime and more rate cuts on the way!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:04 - ID#45173)
Who Cares?
If you call 415-555-1212, there aren't 50,000 name choices. You still can't call a national directory number and ask for any town or city name and get the phone number, but you will within a couple of years. Check out ALTech, recently renamed SpeechWorks.

Also, keep in mind that descrete speech recognition is a much less difficult technology that continuous speech. Picking out "Houston" from "Boston" and a dozen other similar sounding words from a list of a few thousand is not as hard as picking out all the right words in the coninuously spoken phrase, "I wish I knew all the towns in Texas." Think about the difficulty of determining which phonemes occur within a word versus between words and then picking out the right word from hundreds of thousands. Context, language model, domain... lots of linguistic tricks.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:06 - ID#370218)
Thanks for your post earlier today. Little busy to hang out...electicity with low fuel consumption is my main interest. Omaha is not the solar capitol of the US.


(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:06 - ID#201146)
a questionable question?
I have some questions about an on-line auction house. May I post the questions here?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:07 - ID#219363)
@Charles Keeling
Absolutely! My girlfriend got so upset when I explained to her the intricate workings of "They say". She watched first hand as a press release I typed up got delivered at the door step days later in the newspaper without modification. I explained to her that everything she reads in the newspaper about a new restaurant, a new business somewhere, or what have you, it's all just stuff someone typed up and sent in. She was truly irritated by the whole thing. She asked me why people didn't just write up something saying they were the new President or something, and I just smiled.
flashing pictures on my screen shown too quickly to be seen does not register in the conscious mind propoganda of another kind they're f'n with me subliminally their f'in with me subliminally

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:08 - ID#370218)
that is...electricity

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:11 - ID#28994)
Augusta Res. Corp
Financial info
Working capital def. $72.000
Assets $23.000
Sharholders def. $60.000
For $.U.S.A. deduct approx. %40.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:12 - ID#390337)
Credit Crunch?
We don't need your stinking credit crunch. There is NO credit crunch. Even if there WAS one, do you think we'd really tell YOU about it? With all of the 125% home equity loans floating out there on the credit precipice, hear comes good old FNMA to "help you out". In the cold snow that is.

November 25, 1998

Fannie Mae Increases 1999 Mortgage Loan Limit to $240,000

WASHINGTON, DC -- Fannie Mae ( FNM/NYSE ) today announced that it will increase its single-family mortgage loan limit to $240,000 for 1999.
The company noted that in 1999, the increase will permit some 200,000 more families to take advantage of savings provided by having a Fannie Mae mortgage. For example, at the current spread between rates for a Fannie Mae mortgage and a jumbo mortgage, these families will save up to $28,375 over the life of a 30-year mortgage.

Limits for multi-unit loans also will increase for 1999 as follows: two-family loans to $307,100;
three-family loans to $371,200; and four-family loans to $461,350.

The maximum amount for one-to-four-family mortgages in Alaska, Hawaii, and the U.S. Virgin Islands is 50 percent higher than the limits for the rest of the country.

The loan limit for second mortgages will increase to $120,000; in Alaska, Hawaii, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, it will increase to $180,000.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:12 - ID#386245)
Charles Keeling@Augusta/Mogul
This is the Ocampo silver prospect that Augusta is buying from Mogul:
A scoping study has been undertaken by Mining Industry Services Pty
Ltd based on a presumed reserve of 10.5 million tonnes at a mine
diluted grade of 3 g/t eAu, recovery of 90%, and an indicated strip
ratio of 4:1. At a mining rate of 1.5 million tonnes per year
approximately 130,000 oz eAu would be produced for 7 years ( total
910,000 oz eAu ) at a total cash operating cost of US$184 per oz.
Indicative capital cost for the CIP processing plant and
infrastructure is US$23.5 million. For this initial operation, total
cash flow would be US$82 million over seven years with capital
payback in 1.6 years.

A full feasibility study including core drilling for geotechnical and
detailed metallurgical considerations and infrastructure ( including
tailings disposal and environmental ) studies costed at US$500,000
will largely be carried out concurrently with the reserve drilling

The Company is at very advanced stages of negotiations on several
funding alternatives for its exciting Ocampo Project.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:14 - ID#34883)
Mooney*, 20:34, well said.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:18 - ID#350194)
@ Aldebaran @Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 21:06
In these - Crazytimes - someone ( or other, ;-0 ) will probably get mad at me for speaking for Kitco, but since no one else has answered your question - Go AHEAD - the suspense is killing me.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:23 - ID#344326)
@ Mooney
Point taken. In my mind though, Tantalus Rex is not someone who has consistently made long reposts. Perhaps you are a more "elder Kitcoite". I just don't remember seeing you around. My apologies.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:24 - ID#390337)
Permission granted.

Taxi EBAY jumbo unto runway $207.

Proceed to heading $250.

Weather: clear. Proceed with caution through second eye wall though.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:29 - ID#350194)
@ Mole!
Thanks Mole! I see by your appearance that the sun must now be down. Stayed up FAR TOO late last night in front of this screen. Guess I'll leave it early tonight now that the night shift is here!
Those guuys wit walk wit der heads upsydaisy down should soon be here tossing dose shrimps on t'barbie and showing off der big k'nifes and coral reefs, tasmanian sheeps, 'gator boots and small nuggets etc. Don't belief a word's any 'tem says. Dey's all liars dem downoundr's - Howes can's be aenytin els' walkin' on drrr 'eads all di times?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:31 - ID#350194)
I guess my Summer Vacation dragged on a mite too long!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:35 - ID#386245)
How do you think we feel, having to look up your skirts all day long.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:36 - ID#411259)
..... In Further Consideration of the Wedgie .....

I came to realize that, indeey, the initial move is a quick pull UP by the wedger.
But this is generally followed by a cautious and tentative tug back down by the wedgee.
The phrase, "higher highs, and lower lows", takes on very personal meaning here.

I am, of course, speaking of silver.

I am

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:42 - ID#254321)
Can't keep those eyelids up!
Mooney: I agree with you that G Soros may be doing something 'necessary'. I also do not believe one should attack someone because they are wealthy. All I am saying is that I do not respect G Soros -- even if he is doing something someone else would do if it were not for him. He is powerful enough to bring entire countries to their knees. I know he is an active philanthropist -- and I take my hat off to him for that. But there are many individuals who bent the rules excessively for their own gain, and then became philanthropists later.

I consider the successful businessman/investor who commands my respect to be more like Warren Buffett, rather than GS. WB's approach is more constructive. It will be interesting to see what WB does over the next 5 years or so, IMHO.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:49 - ID#344225)
Looking for a sign to jump all the way on to the movement into GOLD?

Merrill Lynch announces, according to a report released by BRIDGE NEWS, that it will be exiting the over-the-counter derivatives market in precious metals,,,,including GOLD.

The Russian Government hopes to counter it's economic problems by "returning to the gold standard".

LTCM needs 400 tons of gold to pay back loans that were made from Central Banks. Recent increases in the price of GOLD during the past 30-60-days has increased the amount owed by LTCM by 286 million dollars.

There have been a number of posts recently about the fact that bulk gold and certainly gold coins are in short supply.Prices are going up on your collectibles---Yes? The US Federal mint is working hard to keep up with demand for Eagles.

Where will the HEDGE FUNDS of this world find the 1300 borrowed tonnes
needed to repay their loans? Hedge funds are now UNWINDING...Money is coming back home form overseas investments. Back to the protective wings of the BIG BAILOUT BIRDS---WJC, RR, & AG. Without the unprecedented intervention of these three unmentionable's this game would already have been over, and you would have missed the train.

Transparency of hedge fund borrowing is being called for by many governments. Exactly how much is owed that can not ever be paid back at these prices?

The GOLD CARRY TRADE is starting to unwind. Just this week loan rates
went up considerably.

Japan is buying GOLD at rates not seen for many years. The Japanese Government is selling US Treasuries and buying Euro's.

JTF....You are going to miss this train.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:51 - ID#290456)
Jack @ PAASF

Don't want to mislead you....although I think that the market has already discounted the risk in PAASF, I too have some reservations. You just never know what could happen. It used to be my largest position of any mining stock - now I only hold less than 1/4 of my previous holdings.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:53 - ID#254321)
25 KW solar electric array now in front of Pentagon?
All: If the Pentagon is doing this for y2k, at least someone is awake.

If these are flat plate panels, it is probably the Midway Labs design, which uses 335 sun solar tracking concentrators.

Problem is-- they could store a years supply of diesel fuel under the Pentagon more effectively. And it would be far more secure. Perhaps they are worried about how long that would take before the ground breaking -- probably 2001. All that red tape.

Interesting. Any solar panels on other buildings? How about the FED?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 21:57 - ID#411259)
..... When one quotes a figure such as..... say .....

.....800 tons of gold deficit to supply..... I begin to wonder... and to calculate.....

If this is the case:

How does the total above ground hoard of gold manage to increase year after year?
More gold exists on top of the earth than at any time in history, where is the shortage?

Perhaps, when one quotes these figures
One could subtract the total amount of gold
Minted into coins and bars for private holding.

These are NOT being consumed.
These are adding to the stockpile.
These are contributing to the hoard.

Also even indeedy so, include scrap reclamation in production figures.

To be the advocate of Beelzebub:

A semi-good argument could be made that there are lots more folks about
And that there is less gold per individual folk than before.

But these folks never tend to get the gold anyway, being the great huddled disenfranchised.

The same few folks always seem to end up with the lions share-o-the-gold, yes?

O Yes

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:03 - ID#254321)
Perhaps, perhaps not
Charles Keeling: I am not worried about missing the train. It must start to move the right direction first. I only need a few minutes to buy. Currently the cyclic movement is down, not up, and cry0 and JOC are heading for new lows. JOC now lower than ever, and it is more reliable than CRY0. I know from hard experience that I must step between the mines to make profits during the volatile upsurges without getting caught in the downsuction. The upsurge in gold lease rates today is encouraging.

Have you been watching South America? Brazil and Mexico are near the brink, IMHO. I think Dec 18 is critical for Mexico. The Mexican people may refuse to bankroll that 60 billion in unpaid debt from the 1994 crash. Fistfights already among their congress people.

If South America goes, that freight train you are referring to will run over you. Gold equities included. But plenty of opportunities afterward.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:03 - ID#153110)
@SilverBaron @Moon Photos @NIAIS
Found another interesting property of a vacuum.
Have you ever noticed how the sun or moon at the horizon at dawn or dusk is larger than it is overhead ? Earth's gaseous atmosphere is a lens in which radiation becomes visible.
Light is not visible in a vacuum. This can be demonstrated on earth. How were photos made on the moon at all ?

Nothing is as it seems.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:03 - ID#376309)
Open Interest
Open Interest is currently at 143,956.
The last time OI was at or below this level for COMEX Gold was on Dec 29,1995!! The day before the BIG MOVE! During the basing phase Gold OI hit a low on Dec 15, 1995 at 138,727.

Can we be in for the same thing???

I'm long Gold and Short the S&P!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:04 - ID#230216)
well said moon-man
worth a re-read for many here ( I said many....that doesn't mean ALL ( ... )


Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 20:34

Mooney* ( @The Hatt, JTF, Soros, Evil and Reality ) ID#350194:

Copyright  1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:11 - ID#390337)
@mozel - You make it too easy ... ouch that hook hurts.
It is a common misconception that the moon appears larger on the horizon than it does at its zenith. The apparent angle does NOT change at all. The perception is enhanced by the juxtaposition of the moon with the complex foreground of the horizon.

What part of taking pictures on the moon has you troubled friend?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:12 - ID#329186)
Charles Keeling Subliminal messages ID#344225
Thanks charles that answers a lot of questions .....except when does the AU subliminal go out



Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:14 - ID#344225)
Yes indeed. I am getting rid of an awful lot of
US paper. Thanks for the info.

I got GOLD, Platinum, Silver, Diamonds. But my powder
ain't dry no more.

Right now I am not very liquid, but I still have a house,
and all the other stuff that you need to get along.

For Y2K: All you need is a motor home with 3-4
batteries hooked up in parallel and a solar charging
system on the roof. Use the Generator sparingly.
Have a good supply of LPG for cooking & the
refrigerator. Got to keep the beer cold.

It really is nice of the OIL Producers to keep the cost
of fuel down just when we need it. Huh?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:18 - ID#254321)
Light not visible in a vacuum?
mozel: I am well aware of the commotion about 100 years ago when Michelson sadly concluded there was no Aether, and Maxwell creatively came up with his equations -- the electrical induction term nearly from thin air ( vacuum? - Pun intended ) . But -- he was right!

I have worked extensively with high vacuum systems over the years, and I have yet to see any indication of electromagnetic radiation fail to propagate through a vacuum. Light shines right through an evacuated chamber.

Any thought about how the sun can illuminate the earth during daytime if light could not propagate through a vacuum?

I'll leave the small bit about zero point energy, and the Casimir effect for another time. Let it suffice to say that vacuum is not really empty anyway, and has a very high energy density of about 1kg/cc. We can't detect it because the energy is not concentrated in discrete elementary particles. Edward Teller recently published an article on how this can be used to make a space drive.

Just think what will happen when we can figure out how to tap this energy! I just hope that when we finally do, we use the energy wisely.

By the way, even if there is nothing wrong with Maxwell's equations, it is still possible that energy can propagate at faster than the speed of light -- but not by classical electromagnetic means.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:29 - ID#254321)
Market trading
EB: I want to make sure that you take no offense by my comments about not respectig George Soros. I respect his trading skills, and I respect others with such skills. I just do not respect the man.

My point is that GS is in a different league when his fund can bring down the Bank of England. That requires a different kind of investment approach -- there is more responsibility there. I wish I could be convinced that G Soros had the ethical knowhow to use his giant hedge fund appropriately.

By the way, I do like one thing he has repeadedly said - namely that international derivatives markets need some sort of regulation. And AG does not seem to want that. How odd.

I'll leave it to everyone else to consider what 'appropriately' is.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:29 - ID#153110)
@JTF @Obtuse
Radiation propagates through a vacuum. I never said otherwise.
Radiation of light frequency on earth is not visible in a vacuum, but is so in a partial vacuum. To perform the experiment properly the radiation source must be inside the container to be evacuated. The earth would be visible from space for the same reason the sun is visible from the surface of the earth.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:33 - ID#254321)
Photomultiplier tube
Mozel: Just replace the camera with a PM tube. It works perfectly fine in a vacuum. As I recall, so do CCD's.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:36 - ID#277224)
Placer Dome and SA gold.
Placer Dome Inc. announced that it will pay $235 million
to aquire a 50 per cent stake in a South African gold
company.However the source does not indicate which one?????
If this has been discussed to death over the last several
days, then mea culpa!!But would like to know which one if
it is common knowledge.Thanks.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:37 - ID#254321)
G'Nite all!
For real this time! My prediction is that gold equities will go down for a time, until the current commodities index downtrend has bottomed.

Isn't it amazing how little gold bullion has dropped, given the disturbing trend in commodity prices?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:37 - ID#153110)
We see what we see. The sun and mooon appear to our eyes to be larger at the horizon at dusk and dawn than they appear to be overhead. It is what we see, not a misconception at all. As the Aurora Borealis is something seen. There is a lens effect from the variation in the amount of atmosphere between us and the sun or moon at dusk and midday in my opinion, not an effect of juxtaposition.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:37 - ID#411259)
..... mozel .....

You aren't really serious are you?
Light not visible in a vacuum?
Look at the stars, mon!
Lots-o-vacuum to travel through there, no?

By definition
Any mass must radiate
As absolute zero has yet to be attained
Even the vacuum you speak of
Is a couple of degrees above
They tell us this is the leftover
From the Big Bang
Although, THAT theory has its problems also

Visible light is but a tiny portion
Of its own grand radiation
Any object interspersed
Twixt a light source
And its ultimate destination
Will absorb energy from that light

Newton taught us that this absorption
Must equal greater energy ( read: mass )
In the object absorbing the light
Which it must then reflect or assimilate

This is actually the basic underpinning
Of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
In which the observation of the object
Alters that object in unpredictable ways
But this is for the very small
The moon is bigger by far, yes?

The craters we see on the moon
Are in such stark relief because
Of the shadows they form
Shadows require light
The same light you deny is possible

Perhaps the shadows were painted there
By the many men who have landed on the moon
And taken pieces of it back home

Same guys who placed that mirror
And positioned and calibrated it so carefully
So that it will, still today, bounce back a beam
When sent from our muddy depths
Damn scientists have been bouncing lasers
Off that little mirror for three decades

A conspiracy should only be considered, if it is possible.

Each person added to the conspiracy adds to its weight
And adds a hundredfold to the chances that one will talk

People like to talk
Just turn on CNBC
To see if they don't


(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:39 - ID#390337)
@mozel - Why do I do this to myself?
What light frequencies are visible beneath the Earth's atmosphere which are NOT visible reflected off of an object in a vacuum?

"Radiation of light frequency on earth is not visible in a vacuum, but is so in a partial vacuum"

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:40 - ID#390337)
@Bart - Sorry bart
Up with Au.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:41 - ID#153110)
I always suspected you sometimes live in a vacuum. Your last post confirms my suspicions.
Because if you don't live in a vacuum, how can you say "Look at the stars, mon. The fact you see them proves they are visible in a vacuum" ?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:41 - ID#411259)
..... Obviously my last was not needed .....

As the Defenders of the Light
Rose to smite this inaccuracy

Never mind

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:43 - ID#411259)
..... Shades of Clinton? .....

That all depends on how you define, "see".


(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:43 - ID#254321)
Let there be light
RJ: I liked your response better.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:43 - ID#153110)
Do an experiment and find out. You just argue when I bring reports. Find out for yourself.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:45 - ID#254321)
mozel: My hat is off to you. You can defend anything. That is something few people can do.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:48 - ID#390337)
@mozel - Easy moon experiment
I see a waxing moon tonight.
1. Weather permitting, hold your arm extended tomorrow evening as the moon is on or near the horizon.
2. Observe your GOLD wedding band. ( sorry )
3. Please make a fist and extend your thumb vertically.
4. Juxtapose your thumb next to the moon on the horizon. Note the apparent size to your thumb.
5. Next about 5 1/2 hours of CNNFN.
6. Unglue your eyelids and go outside.
7. Repeat the arm-thumb extension thing.

Voila. The apparent size of the moon has not changed!

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:49 - ID#153110)
"Light shines right through an evacuated chamber." So, what ? Go with NTEOTWAWKI and do likewise a proper experiment.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 22:59 - ID#390337)
@mozel your ? " How were photos made on the moon at all ?"
Well I found these documents on a table near Vince Foster's body.

Apparently JFK and MM were in a tussle with Bobby Darren's "Fly me to the moon" playing in the background. He gets this wacky idea. Hey NK try to beat this. So we spend billions of dollars and expend some very brave souls and create some technology. Then we shoot the Spam in a Can to the moon. They break out their Hasselblads filled with Ektar. The H-He fusion furnace 93 mil away provide more than a few photons. The rest dear sir is history.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:02 - ID#411259)
..... NTEOTWAWKI .....

Your last reminds me of a story told by Alan Shepherd
Or maybe it was one of the other Right Stuff guys:

He said that he first viewed the Earth
From the small porthole in the craft
He then held up his thumb and eclipsed it all

He then pondered all he ever learned
Everybody who had ever lived
Every thought and idea ever thunk
Was all hidden behind his very small thumb

This kind of perspective
Grows in us an awareness
That we are all in it together
And this dot is our only dot
But a fine dot indeedy it is

In the vast vacuum ( nearly ) of space.

mozel -

I never could argue with, "So what".

You win

I would type a snappy ending to this post
But it has suddenly become very hard to see the keyboard

Hey!! Hwo truned out the lgihts?


(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:05 - ID#45173)
If the stock market holds up until Christmas, we'll make it through the year in one piece
U.S. mall sales flat over Thanksgiving--trade group

NEW YORK, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - Holiday sales at U.S. shopping malls got
off to a modest start over the Thanksgiving weekend as unseasonably
warm weather kept shoppers outdoors and away from stores, the
International Council of Shopping Centers said on Tuesday.

Sales at specialty stores at 48 malls were flat compared with the same
period last year, the Council said.

By category, sales for the Nov. 27-29 period for cards, gifts, and books rose 1.3 percent from last year, jewelry increased 4.6 percent and home furnishings advanced 5.1 percent.

Those gains were offset by sales of footwear which declined 1.9 percent, apparel which fell 2.3 percent, and the toys-health-beauty-miscellany category which was off 1.7 percent from a year ago.

``Although Thanksgiving weekend is considered to be the traditional kickoff of the holiday shopping season, it plays less of an important role than it did years ago,'' said Dr. John Konarski, vice president of research for the council.

``Over the past several years, Thanksgiving weekend has accounted for less than 10 percent of holiday sales. The bulk of sales occur during the week before Christmas and this trend is expected to continue this year,'' he said in a statement.

``We are confident that the overwhelming majority of analysts are correct in predicting that the 1998 holiday season will be a good one for retailers,'' he said.

Retail industry analysts have said they expect 1998 holiday sales to increase 3 to 5 percent over last year.

The Council's holiday report includes revenue from more than 2,500 specialty stores in 48 regional malls across the country. The national sample does not include department stores and other mall ``anchor'' establishments.
Nice spin. If the weather was lousy they'd say cold/wet weather kept people home and away from the malls. Another explanation is that some folks have already done all the negative income consuming they plan to do this year. Or maybe folks have finally tired of the whole Christmas racket -- conforming to the ritual of buying crap they can't afford for people they don't like.

Next we'll see the sirens of civic responsibility calling to the American consumer: C'Mon you credit card junkies. Get out there and buy another electric toothbrush. The fate of the world economy rests on your shoulders! ( Boeing employees excluded )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:09 - ID#341312)
Kitco's annual year end software snafu and a lot of ramblings
Well, I see from the year portion of the popdown menu that we still do not have a "99" much less a "00" to choose from. This looks like a rerun of last year about this time. Bart, you might want to ask your programmer if he's heard about the new 4 digit year concept ;- ) . I hear it's all the rage in major corporations ( US, Canada, Australia, and England, that is ) and nearly 2/3 of the US Govt mission critical systems ( projected, not actual ) . There are even a few ( literally ) utilities that have demonstrated their ability to run post '99. I'd hate to be unable to review postings as we begin the biggest PM bull market in the history of the world. It will be almost as much fun as watching Yahoo! and Onsale battle each other in the race to be delisted first from the Nasdaq. Someone should explain the concept of "barriers to entry" to the yahoos who are shelling out $200 a share for those stocks. Since there really aren't any for internet concept stocks, the upcoming years should prove interesting to say the least.
Re the voice recognition software comments, I think it will be useful for certain applications like home climate and lighting control, some disabled computer users, auto mechanics' digital assistant, executives' personal secretary, and a undoubtedly a few others but I don't see it doing away with the keyboard for two reasons. First of all, talking to a computer would be, at the least, irritating in a group or office environment. Imagine the din of hundreds of cubicle bound office workers yakking at their monitors. Not good. Some sort of manual input device will usually be preferable in a these types of situations. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the act of writing is distinctly different from the act of speaking or even dictation. It is slower, concepts are ( hopefully ) more clearly explained, and it undergoes quite a bit of revision from start to finish. I've found that my reading and writing capabilities have undergone a bit of a renaissance since I took to the net ( I can hear the snickers already! ) and the quality of editorials available on various websites simply blow away all other media. Voice recognition software will certainly have a large impact on computing, but I think the demise of the keyboard is a bit premature.
I'm not sure who asked the question a few nights ago but my asset allocation is 60% unleveraged physical PM's, 25% money market, and 15% speculative technology and mining stocks. This is from 85% stock mutual funds and 15% money market a year and a half ago. Panic early and avoid the rush, I guess. After watching the Y2K remediation programmer on 60 minutes Sunday talking about deposits simply vanishing, I bet quite a few folks are thinking about their checking accounts tonight. Naaah, they've probably forgotten about it already, which is OK by me as I get more time to prepare. Oops. Almost forgot. Where is that golden watch on a chain? Ah, yes. ( swinging watch to and fro ) "Everything will be fine. The government is working on it. Nothing bad will ever happen. Big Brother looooves you. You're feeling drowsy, so drowsy. Go to sleep. Sleeeeeeep. Sleeeeeeeeeep." ;- )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:09 - ID#153110)
You seem to be attributing the apparent difference in size of the sun at the horizon and overhead to depth perception. Is that so ?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:12 - ID#390337)
Those were my heros when I was growing up. Courage, honor and integrity. Even Grissom and his precious metal commemorative thing.

Who are our heros now?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:15 - ID#219363)
Diamonds and other Gems
Just curious, the kind of curious like when you're going to an art gallery, are there any web sites that you guys know of where they sell diamonds and other gemstones ? I'm not talking your regular gems, I'm talking those brilliant big huge ones that they sell at auction sometimes. I know there are dealers out that who only deal in "special" gems, anybody know a good site to look at ?

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:16 - ID#344225)
@ CPO RE: The Subliminal
The message is going out now, as it has been
for the past few years. Problem is, it was prepared
by WJC and his team of the "it's the economy stupid"

The message is ANTI-AU. Why is that? Because the
government controls the right to print money. That
is power to the nth degree. They don't want to
relinquish that power.

Do you ever wonder how WJC & RR feel when they sign
those billion dollar checks to bail out the likes of
S. Korea? Power, man---Power. But also, perhaps
a wink and a nod will get you a pay back. Hell, 10%
will do. 10 % of a billion or two will buy any

Our dumb Congressmen don't have enough sense to check
the drafts drawn on the slush fund during the last
two years. It takes two to sign off on those big US
only bailouts; WJC & RR. Mexico....S. Korea...Riady.

The President of Indonesia had enough money ( 35 billion )
to bail out his own country. He siphoned off all of the
HARD assets of his country to Swiss Banks. The USA
supported this corrupt regime for years because he was
funding a political machine here in the USA.

Subliminal....I see Monicas tonsils flashing in front
of my eyes and I am powerless to resist. Moreover, I
simply can't remember anything!

You know what they say: When the blood drains out of
your brain to the lower part of your anatomy, you simply
cant remember what happened....It all becomes a blank.

Denial...But how can the 65 % of Americans, who want this
pervert to continue as President, justify his actions
just because the economy is running in their favor...
( LGB/JTF ) ???

It is an absolute miracle that we have not crashed months
ago. I believe that all stops have been pulled out to
keep sh!t afloat. A free market economy? Supply &
demand? We chastise other country's who do NOT follow
the principals of a free economy with the holy principals
of supply & demand. Then we do the opposite of what we
preach so the whole world can see.

Now Hong Kong follows our lead. Others will follow soon.

Isn't that what WJC does??? He says one thing & then does
something else. Russia must really be confused by now.
I wonder if they think, perhaps, that they have been had?

We sent all kinds of economists to Russia to tell them how
to run a free economy, and then we do the opposite.
They got screwed and tatooed by WJC & Company. But their
people are hungry, and that is not a joke.

If commodities go much lower things will rachet out of
control. AG knows how to fight inflation, but he is now
trying ( belatedly ) to stop deflation by printing paper
just as fast as possible.

Of course, once you get deflation, inflation arrives
soon after and with a vengence. Just ask Indonesia,
S Korea and Russia.

I saw Microsoft shoot up 7 points today. The Internet
stocks and their PE averages just blow my mind. We
are witnessing a blow off of major proportions.
People with "NO FEAR" are buying like crazy without
any knowledge or regard for market conditions.

The market is being played now by people who grew up
playing video games like Pac Man. They wear "No Fear"
T shirts and set at their P C's with their skate boards
close by. They look for "momentum" and go with it
regardless of fundamentals and with a complete
disregard for TA. ( That's Technical Analysis not
tit's and ass. )

I am a retired computer whiz type nerd. I know
computer stocks, and I have made a lot of money
buying and selling computer stocks. I can't find
any now that I would buy. I do find a lot that
I can short.

Night All...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:17 - ID#190411)
Phenomenal performances!
BEARX Monday........+.03
BEARX Tuesday....... .00
Are they out of everything?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:18 - ID#411259)
..... Who are Our Heroes Now? .....

Don't have any
And THAT is sad


(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:18 - ID#390337)
@mozel - I will relinquish the argument to your better judgement.
The refractive properties of the atmosphere may cause a several phenomenon. The object may indeed measure larger at the horizon than at zenith. The question to you is, how does this phenomenon preclude photographs being taken on the moon?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:24 - ID#240155)
Mooney* question
Sorry, I had gone to bed for a few hours. There is an auction house on line selling gold coins of all differnt kinds. Some without a reserve. I see low bids, I imagine before the close of bidding these are all bidded up to about what they are worth. But I was wondering if this was a scam or if I should avoid it, or if maybe I should try to buy one coin and see if I get stung. I saw 1oz American Eagles with a current bid of $152, several days left to go, but this was going without a reserve, IT SEEMS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE, so all the bells went off. I was just wondering if anyone knew anything about it.

the place was ebay

but I didn't post a url, and I am not promoting it so by the rules set forth in Kitcos "netiquette" guidelines I'm still on thick ice right.

Who Cares?
(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:29 - ID#189232)
EJ and 50,000 cities but no Credit Crunch
EJ, I *made* the database of 50,000 cities from extracts of Federal
reports. And I know that it isn't complete because I was still
getting complaints from officers in the field when I quit. : )

You want a copy? : )

I can't believe that NTEOTWAWKI doesn't believe there's a credit
crunch. The proof is in the interest rate inversions -

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:29 - ID#390337)
@Aldebaran and ebay
EBAY is oftened mentioned here. Your transgressions are noted and logged % )

Ebay like most on-line services makes absolutely no claim to the validity of the merchandise, price, marketability, seller or buyer. 100% caveat emptor dude.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:29 - ID#219363)
Zero Hero
Just a quick comment. I don't know that it's a bad thing that there aren't any heros right now. Heroic folks come out when they're needed, leaders thrive and are celebrated when things are bad and people need a star to follow. When we're fat and lazy, well, nobody cares. Wait until that special sometime when it's all gone to hell, that's when the leaders shine, when the hero returns. If someone stood in the middle of New York and said he was going to lead us all to glory, we'd laugh and go back to shopping, talk about it over dinner that night in front of the television. Put that same guy into the mountains of Hondorus, he'd be the man with the plan. Our heros are out there, waiting until they're needed, it's comforting in a way. That's just what I think.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:30 - ID#367411)
Aldebaran be careful.......
I don't think there are many free lunches in this world......if someone offers to sell you something for half of what you could sell it for anywhere else........something is WRONG.

Good luck,


(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:32 - ID#153110)
Radiation is made visible by passage through stuff like gas or glass. So, a prism makes visible color, Likewise, the gas of the earth's atmosphere makes visible some of the wavelengths of the radiation arriving from the sun. Those same visible wavelengths when generated in a vacuum chamber become invisible when the chamber is evacuated to a sufficient vacuum.

Does the moon have an atmosphere ? We are told it does not. If not, what would make the radiation from the sun visible or light there by which men there could make photos ? Sensors can detect invisible radiation, I know, and transfer images to film. Radar and infra-red phtotography shows that. But, how would a man get about and hit golfballs in such a place ?

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:35 - ID#390337)
@Who Cares - It sure is an asymetrical credit crunch.
Are the banks yanking in the credit limit on all the credit cards this buying frenzy season? I think not.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:37 - ID#341312)
Big Sun on the horizon and Mozel goes fishin'
The sun looks bigger and more hazy when it's near the horizon because it's image is passing through, and being diffracted by, a much longer distance of atmosphere and pollutants than when it's directly overhead.
Mozel: You don't need an atmosphere to take a picture. Images decay and distort with atmosphere, they are not propagated by them. Light, unlike sound, needs no medium. It only gets in the way. But, you already know this. You're just yanking our chains again, aren't you? ( grin thingy ) I can see it already. Mozel's sitting at home, bored, thinking, what to do? ( Robert Stack voice ) What to DO! I know, log on to kitco and start with the moon business again. This time I'll tell them you can't take a picture on it. That should be good for at least a half dozen posts, maybe more. Well, it worked. Again. We goldbugs are nothing if not gullible. Who else would bet against the Fed? Oh well, gotta go. I've got this really great deal on some oceanfront property I saw on a website. But, I have to send money right away to keep my place on the list...

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:38 - ID#432148)
CRB Index... appears to be attempting a double bottom with August low,
just about everything else outperforming it, including gold. Take a

look at it with a line chart.

The Hatt
(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:39 - ID#294232)
Your compassion for Soros reminds me of the bleeding hearts who insist capital punishment is not a deterent. Until it is their twelve year old daughter who is raped and then strangled with her own skipping rope. Have you felt the pain of hyper inflation and or 40% interest rates? Not likely! My comments have little to do with his wealth and more to do with exactly how he became wealthy. Sit tight as the true value of the USD is about to be uncovered and we will see how fast the western world blames Japan because they chose to blow off U.S. treasuries. My hat comes off to the wealthy who made their money above board and with integrity not to the vultures who look for injured prey.....

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:40 - ID#340383)
For a good time call...
Sorry that I don't remember the exact number, but on TV here they are advertising a national information number. Something like 888-555-9000. The "9000" is correct.
Cost is 95 cents. Bet it gets a lot cheaper.

Charles Keeling
(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:46 - ID#344225)
Well heck....It has just got to be our
Commander In Chief---Bill Clinton.

He gets paid for sitting in the Oval
Orifice while getting special attention
from young interns of his choice.

He indulges in fantasy phone sex late
at night, and has all kinds of young honeys
coming to see him during working hours while
being paid by the sucker tax payers.

While talking to Congressmen on the phone
about sending our boys to war, he is being
serviced by a young honey while eating a
pizza. Now that is an image that we can all

Our IMAGE hero has shown us the way. We
certainly owe him a debt of gratitude.

We no longer have to fear about telling a
lie under oath. That is now a right of all
citizens. If a DNA test discovers our
semen on a dress of some female that we have
never had contact with, we can just ignore it
and say: I don't remember. "I never had sex
with that woman".

If we are charged with sexual harrasment we
can just say: "That just never happened".

We owe a lot to WJC our role model and our
hero. He has set a standard that perhaps
we will never live up to.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:47 - ID#390337)
@mozel - Let me put your latest through my Occam-o-matic
"Radiation is made visible by passage through stuff like gas or glass."
- properties of reflection and refraction, good so far

"So, a prism makes visible color,"
- more refraction, I like it.

"Likewise, the gas of the earth's atmosphere makes visible some of the wavelengths of the radiation arriving from the sun."
- more effects of refraction and reflection, very good

"Those same visible wavelengths when generated in a vacuum chamber become invisible when the chamber is evacuated to a sufficient vacuum."
- whoop whoop whoop. Nonlinear thought processes at work here.
-rwrwrw Dec 2,1998 23:54 core.Mozel.dump

"Does the moon have an atmosphere ? We are told it does not. If not, what would make the radiation from the sun visible or light there by which men there could make photos ?"
- Uh, reflection?

"Sensors can detect invisible radiation, I know, and transfer images to film."
- ok

- buzzzzzzzzz. Radar returns have a poor signal to noise ratio on silver halide or charge coupled devices. I don't think radar images are possible.

" and infra-red phtotography shows that."
- been there, done that

"But, how would a man get about and hit golfballs in such a place ?"
- 7 iron

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:50 - ID#340383)
About the ocean-front property... The parcel appears larger and more colorful when viewed from afar, and it looks a lot sexier at dusk on a hazy day. Don't go shopping when you're hungry. %^ )

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:50 - ID#386245)
Is that oceanfront property on the moon? I've got a nice block up there. Sorry I can't send you any pictures as it is impossible to take pictures on the moon.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:52 - ID#267298)
Placer Dome Is paying $235 million for a half share
of the minig assets of Western Areas Ltd. of Johannesburg.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:54 - ID#341312)
Soros to blame?
The problem isn't Soros, it's money created out of thin air that people have to trade their labor for. When your store of wealth is fiat currency subject to the ineptitude of politicians and the vagaries of the world economy, you will eventually get burned with very real pain and suffering as the only possible outcome to the whole shoddy affair. Soros is at most a minor symptom of a much larger and invariably fatal disease. We will relearn this lesson soon enough, I think. Perhaps then people will understand why the States shall make no thing but gold and silver coin legal tender. Or, that's the gist of it anyway.

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:56 - ID#350195)
JTF, Envy RE: Heuristic ALgorithmic
It's in the move 2010 : )
"Is it true Dr. Chandra, that you chose the name Hal to be one step ahead of IBM?"

A good read relating to such discussions:
"HAL'S Legacy" w/ forward by Arthur C. Clarke
MIT Press - 1997 edited by David G. Stork

A collection of essays on 2001's tech background & guesses
- fault tolerances, computer chess, text to speech, speech recognition, computer use of language, programmable common sense ( ? ) , speechreading, computerized perception, emotions and computers, computer ethics, Moore's law, AI shortfalls....

Oh yea, Go GOLD

(Tue Dec 01 1998 23:57 - ID#153110)
Does radiation require a medium to propagate ? Apparently not. At least it propagates in a vacuum chamber on earth and it propagates in the vacuum of deep space. But, propagation and visibility are not the same thing. Neither are propagation and audibility. Elephants and whales hear frequencies we cannot.

If I had known before the property of a vacuum which I recounted tonight I would have said so before. I'm not kidding people. But, it is sweet that this property of a vacuum relates directly to the video evidence upon which the fraud was put afoot.