Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:00 - ID#390337)
@The Hatt
If I am in the money on 10000 DEC99 $365 gold call contracts, Do I receive a "My hat comes off to the wealthy who made their money above board and with integrity" or a cold stare " not to the vultures who look for injured prey....."?

What if I go short?

People will be negatively affected by my actions for sure. How do you determine what is above board vs. stalking prey?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:01 - ID#432148)
CRB Index... appears to be attempting a double bottom with August low,
just about everything else outperforming it, including gold. Take a

look at it with a line chart.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:04 - ID#45173)
Why indeed has gold held up so well as other commodities, especially oil, have cratered?

I was discussing this today with a friend who's as negative on gold as a derivatives rocket scientist type can be. His argument, of course, is that gold is a commodity, a common one at that.

I challenged him by agreeing that it is a commodity, and that the only factor that makes it different from any other commodity is its past history as a monetary unit, a history that is both an asset and a liability to its price today.

It's past is an asset because gold is still percieved as a store of wealth, like a nice piece of property, such as a two acre beachfront in Carmel. This as distinguished from a commodity such as copper, which to be used as store of wealth requires an enormous quantity, akin to holding 500 acres of desert in Nevada. Nor does gold have much utility, such as Platinum has in catalytic converters. Likewise, the beachfront in Carmel is not suitable for a nuclear power plant or a parking lot. As with gold, the greatest value of the beachfront property is not industrial. It is valued because it is so attractive and rare.

Gold's history as a monetary unit is also a liability to its price. As a result of this history, governments hold enormous amounts of it. The only reason governments do not sell all of the non-monetary commodity they hold is that they have so much of it and the market is so illiquid that they cannot sell without destroying the value of the commodity they are trying to profit on from selling. Discounting the fact that CBs cannot sell their gold, if you include their holding, from the standpoint of supply and demand, gold is not rare.

So far my friend is with me. And there is another parallel development in history since gold has lost its official status as a monetary unit. An estimated $40,000,000,000,000 in apparent wealth has been produced by the creation of fiat dollars. Perhaps another $30,000,000,000,000 denominated in yen. Add up all of the fiat money created since the gold standard was dropped and you have perhaps $200,000,000,000,000 in the world money supply. At $300/oz, $700,000,000,000 buys all the gold in the world. If the world were suddenly to return to the gold standard without reducing the money supply, the price of gold would need to rise to $85,714/oz.

Of course, the world is not about to go back on the gold standard. However, world financial system started on a flight to quality path that might have led to a rush to liquidity. Only a small fraction of the $200,000,000,000,000 in fiat wealth is available as cash. Another event that runs to its conclusion with a full rush to liquidity will make gold the strong alternative to cash. How common will gold be then?

My friend reluctantly agreed. But he always gets the last word in.

That won't happen.

I hope not. But what is holding up the price of gold in the face of other commodities falling?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:06 - ID#153110)
You can confirm whose core dumped by experiment. I think TEOTWAYKI came tonight.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:09 - ID#45173)
Who Cares?
So what national number do you call for information? When I call for a number in, say, San Francisco, I have to dial 415-555-1212. There are not 50,000 names of towns in the 415 area. Get it?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:11 - ID#390337)
I will not submit to pseudo-science.
NTEOTWAWKI quotable quote

Especially pseudo-science used to "prove" more pseudo-science.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:12 - ID#277224)
Thanks.Difficult to say what the spin might be on a major
like the fifth largest gold mining co. like Placer moving
into South Africa.Since it is at least one of the richest
gold bearing areas in the world, the only thing that is unusual
is that it has not happened long before this.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:12 - ID#249244)
All and RJ, in regard to Mozel, light and vacuum...

Stop dumping tonns of ancient science on the head of Mozel...
RJ, you stop it are supposed to talk metals
and stuff, not this Newton the way, where
in the hell did you manage to learn about this guy, I
thought you are just a superb metals broker w/o this trash
in your head...but you seems to be no better than others...

Anyway, MOZEL IS RIGHT! If you take source of light, for
example - flashlight, turn it on and put it inside the vacuum,
for example Eureka or Dirt Devil, you WILL NOT see the
light inside vacuum!!! Just try this experiment before
posting your ridiculous and funny comments about Mozel, dah!

Mozel, I'm with you...they know nothing...hit'em again
with something like them your class, man!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:14 - ID#267298)
Once again, looking for help
Would anyone care to offer their opinion as to the
significance of a company negotiating a "Private Placement"
of their shares ( units ? ) . I.E. Would this normally be considered
positive?, negative?, neutral? news? Anyone?

TIA and Goooooooooooooo Gold.....

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:17 - ID#390337)
@oris - Metals?
As in AK-47 metals?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:18 - ID#43460)
After reading tonights posts it becomes obvious
that the primary solution to the moon landing hoax is that it is impossible. Why? Because it is impossible to orbit the earth in the first place. The earth is flat and the moon and sun merely holes in a crystal sphere surrounding it. I think one day Ill go back and count the off topic posts and see if I can correlate them with the POG. The more OTP the higher it would go; thats my thesis. In which case it sould reach $310 by the end of the week. IMHO

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:18 - ID#45173)
Hah! I woke my wife up laughing at your last post.

I wonder if the government conspiracies discussion groups contain a lot of postings about PM trading.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:23 - ID#267298)
Placer Dome says it will double it's gold reserves. You
can read-all-about-it in an article published in today's
( Tuesday's ) Business Section of the Vancouver Sun
newspaper. "" Sorry, I've tried
everything I can possibly think of and still can't paste a link.

Hope this helps.......

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:24 - ID#390337)
That's exactly what I am doing.
Introducing negative spin on my POG chaos theory generator.
The more non-Au subject matter, the higher the POG does.
How can the Fed/IMF/CB's possibly squash all the goldbugs if we don't talk about g*ld. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:28 - ID#57290)
HATT: Soros
I too think Soros is a pirate. He is in bed with Rothschild and the LBMA. He is a mouthpiece for them and himself. The self-serving drival he dished out to the US Congress and his books show me how duplicious he really is. He rapes and pillages as the opportunity arises. His philanthropy is a pittance compared to his wealth. He is against Malaysia's closed markets because he can't go in and steal in a regulated market. His cries for an international credit fund are to bail his interests out when he makes a mistake - like the GKO's he recently had to eat. If there had been an agency to bail out the russkies, guess who wouldn't have to take a bath on their bonds??? Big Georgie hisself. I don't see how some of the other posters are taken in by him. It's good to have lots of stupid people in the market. Last fool theorum. Someone has to buy all that paper, right?? The ultimate rule is 7.62mm

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:35 - ID#432148)
RSA...extremely low prices there, due to depressed currency as well as gold ,
( and don't tell anybody, but something actually gets through to the

bottom line, on occasion. )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:37 - ID#43460)
NTEOTWAWKI, be careful
You probably were not here last year when I talked about it but I am a card carrying member of the Thought Police. So my last post was half serious. All BS aside I really think that if there is so much stife over nonissues and gallows humor among the cadre of diehard Bugs it shows a lot of negative ( or at least apathetic ) sentiment on the street. You will notice that Kaplan says "...Tuesday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a light 19,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Monday fell 4,235 to 143,956 contracts, an unusually low total..." which may mean that there is little interest in the street in making any sort of committment. Of course it COULD mean that the yellow metal will fall but I am starting to doubt that. One very brave or very stupid ( and very rich! ) person could trigger a big move in either direction at this point. IMHO

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:41 - ID#219363)
That was a well thought out and well written post, kudos. Just makes you want to go out and start buying up all the gold with your lousy dollars doesn't it *smile*. Even the peasants can have a few ounces, gold that was once reserved for kings. I guess it's time to start filling up the treasure chest with gold and silver.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:41 - ID#249244)
Could you please wake up your wife again and deliver
my sincere appologies for being a reason of her waking
up first time...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:43 - ID#341312)
On the beach talking about waves
ChasAbar- That was not a serious post but thanks for the info. If gold ever does take off I might need that. Tricks to everything, I guess.
Mozel-Electromagnetic waves are a LOT different than other types of waves that require mediums. Sound waves, for instance, are simply pressure waves in whatever medium they're in. An observer "hears" the pressure change with respect to time. Higher, lower, higher, whatever. It's really just the substance ( air, water, etc ) psi changing over time. Waves on a string are different in that the physical location of any point on the string is what's varying, not a pressure of a substance. EM waves like light, x-rays, radio waves are self propagating. Think of a sine wave oscillating from point a to b. In the "vertical" direction you'd have one component, say the magnetic portion, doing this sine wave oscillation. In a plane 90 deg to that, and 90 deg out of phase, is the electric portion also doing its own sine wave. When one is at a maximum, the other is at a minimum. Each recreates the other over and over again. Why this works is this: A moving magnetic field creates an electric field and vice versa. Why THAT works I don't have the slightest idea. It would seem to be energy changing from one form to the other, I don't know. Generators and electric motors work on this same principle. For a generator, a magnet of one polarity is rotated past a magnet of the other polarity and a current is produced and drawn off for use elsewhere. For a motor, an electric current is applied to turn the magnets past each other producing shaft rotation. Disclaimer: This is all from physics I took many years ago in a class room far, far away on a little blue planet in the unfashionable Western Arm of the Milky Way galaxy so I might have bits and pieces a little out of place. Say, how do you like that "Know your customer" program the FDIC is trotting out for public comment ( like what we say would actually matter ) ? That's funny, I thought we WON the Cold War. Apparently not. BBML

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:46 - ID#432148)
Gold ...last time gold open interest was this low was in December 1995, just
prior to the run up to 420.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:48 - ID#219363)
21 Parcel Bombs Found in Australia
CANBERRA, Australia ( AP ) -- Authorities found 21 parcel bombs at an Australian mail processing center after a bomb exploded there early Wednesday, causing minor injuries to two workers.
What are you guys doing down there in Aussie'land ?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:51 - ID#153110)
@Whatever You Do Don't question authority.
Don't experiment. Don't make your own observations of Nature. Work for their green printed paper; Consume; And Die. In between the cradle and the grave, they will soothe you, show and tell you stories at 11 and again in the Morning. On special occasions, they run Specials.

I thought you'd like to know about this property of radiation in a vacuum being invisible that is visible in earth's atmosphere. But, if you don't, it's nothing to me. It's an everyday occurrence to witness that the truth of a matter is no more valued nowadays than Gold.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:53 - ID#254288)

I was contemplating a new silver investment if and when Homestake merged Prime Resources into their empire. It happened late today. Prime was an ideal silver/gold holding with adequate cash, good earnings, low costs and no debt, but that's history.
I don't like Homestake, seems to be past its prime and who cares if the Baron Von Finck is buying. About nine months back I heard rumor that HM and a major South African were talking, now, with the Baron's involvement in HM this could be possible.
I like medium sized NA quality producers with track records, but they are becoming a rare breed because of metal prices and the move toward multinational miners.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 00:56 - ID#45173)
@oris & Envy
She told me not to wake her up a third time to tell her you're sorry you told me to wake her up the second time to tell her you're sorry you made me wake her up the first time. Women.

Glad you liked the post. Those who believe the fiat money system will run forever don't need gold as insurance. Theoretically, it can run forever, barring some unexpected, catastrophic event that gets a heavy-duty panic going. For example, an event related to the technical infrustructure of the global economic financial system. Perhaps an event caused by the failure of computers used for international financial transactions, or the fear of the failure of such computers. Just in case, I own gold :-O


(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:03 - ID#219363)
Good'nite Kitco.

Remember to shake your dad's hand and kiss your mom. Hug your sister and your brother. Pet the kids if you've got'em, and be good to your woman. Tell the truth, speak your mind, stand tall, be confident. Take vacations, smile to people on the street, hold the door open for a lady. Be strong when you need to be, gentle and kind the rest of the time. Pet a cat, play with a dog. Keep a clean heart, and feel the burning fire way down in your soul, feel it in your fingertips. Be the center, and feel the world move around you. Be good to yourself and do what you want, it's no good if you don't have a dream, so don't ever give up. Don't let the time slip away. It's all so very simple.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:08 - ID#249244)
Statement from the Kremlin, from Lights and Candles Department
Our top secret source of light is capable of generating
speed of light equal to 300,000 km/sec. This information
has been never before available to the West...

Because we feel a little bit guilty that nobody is going to
get their money back from Russia, we decided to share this
highly classified information in exchange for our debt....

(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:18 - ID#25233)
Some Stupid Questions...
Hi Folks,

I've been lurking for months now. Enjoyed & learned quite a lot from y'all... Just a bit puzzled by some of the terminology, tho.

M1 & M3 seem to pop up from time to time... I guess one is the total amount of money deposited & residing in various

accounts ( tho invested elsewhere ) & the other is more like actual circulating cash ( physical money, fiat or not ) . How far off

is that assumption? And is there an M2 or M7 & such?

XAU? I was thinking that was price ( X ) of gold ( AU ) , but it looks like I'm mistaken. POG seems to be signify that... So

what is it? and is there a XAG?

I've never seen mention of a FAQ, so I assume we don't have one? Decent 'FAQ-like' links, anyone? Stuff that could be

understood by someone who's taken a few Economics classes & sufficient mastery of most 'sub-calculus' mathematics?

I'm just a small time dabbler in the metals - been interested in the Y2K stuff for well over a year now & some PM's are

definately in line with the Guns & Grub accumulation...

My rudimentary knowledge of economics confuses me as the metal prices just don't take off in the face of the world's

problems. Tho the sub $300/gold & sub $5/silver ( both seem cheap to me ) , just makes it easier for more folks to get on

board before the excrement hits the fan. And most of us have friends/family who haven't heard the 'wake-up' call yet, eh?

This is probably naive: How do the entities with vast amounts of gold benefit from keeping the price low? They will lend or sell vast quantities to keep the price from rising? Knowing if they hold & refuse to sell, the price goes up & they gain scads more $$ when they decide to sell.

One last thing, can anyone determine one's email address from a posting in this forum?

Just call me Mr. Curious...

I need sleep now, but upon awakening I'll relish any responses.

OB Flattery: I've spent more time lurking here, than in any other 10 forums combined. Great folks & great info.



(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:53 - ID#373403)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:55 - ID#373403)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 01:55 - ID#343259)
Welcome to Kitco Joe
It's not like I'm the mayor or anything, but I'm here perusing the daily posts myself. Although I can't answer any of your questions, I can say that here and there, some folks make their email available, others prefer to keep anonymity. So, once again, "welcome"

(Wed Dec 02 1998 02:14 - ID#240155)
Joe (Questions)
* M1 & M3 seem to pop up from time to time... I guess one is the total

Money Stuff, I think I know, but I won't guess someone else knows for sure.

*XAU? I was thinking that was price ( X ) of gold ( AU ) , but it looks

I think XAU is an index of various gold and silver producers stocks.

*I've never seen mention of a FAQ, so I assume we don't have one? Decent

Someone posted some links for beginners when I first de-lurked, but I am at work and the links are bookmarked on my computer at home. At best I think a FAQ could define terms. There is too much difference of opinion otherwise. I mean there are people who are using so very different techniques to predict what gold or gold stocks or other precious metals are going to do.

*My rudimentary knowledge of economics confuses me as the metal prices

Me too, and I even took 3 semesters of calculus! But I think that whats happening is confusing to all the people interested. Some say the price is being artificially controlled, and they make a strong case for that. If thats the case I IMAGINE that that control can't or won't be maintained for long. I think there will be wild price swings. But that's what I want to happen, I have no evidence no charts, stats or anything.

*And most of us have friends/family who haven't heard the'wake-up' call yet, eh?

This is a problem, y2k or not I am certain the stock market is going to crash, yet it keeps on tickin...

My parents are both retired, and although they really should know better, they are using mutual funds instead of savings. I mentioned my concerns a little bit, but in my family, to press the point would be exceedingly inappropriate.

you wrote:

This is probably naive: How do the entities with vast amounts of gold benefit from keeping the price

low? They will lend or sell vast quantities to keep the price from rising? Knowing if they hold &

refuse to sell, the price goes up & they gain scads more $$ when they decide to sell.

Ok, easy answer is they don't care about scads of $$, because it's just paper and ink and printing time to them. They print the stuff or order the Treasury to print it for them.

Hard answer is: there are people who are so wealthy, that money as you and I know it ceases to be of worth to them. If you have money you can get more by putting the money to work. At a certain point, you really can have as much as you want, you pick a number out of the air and append billion or trillion to it. At this point material wealth becomes meaningless to them, they begin to deal in a different currency called power. People like us will never even know these peoples names.

You might want to ask Mozel about things like this offboard, I bet he knows more about it than I, but the Federal Reserve Board is a privately held corporation. Neat how that works. I don't think their listed on the NYSE. But this stuff gets wierd and for the most part it's easier for me to just stick with the easy answer. What is money to the man who prints it?

* One last thing, can anyone determine one's email address from a *posting in this forum?

Yes, No, it depends, Bart has your email address in a file. But if you mean common theives or something like that probably no. I'm not sure.

One thing, I noticed that someone posted the identifier of a federally issued permit. Just for fun I wanted to see how much privacy they had given up in 10 letters or less. Within about 40 seconds I had their real name, real address, lat,lon of where they lived, three previous permit identifiers, and the date of issue and classification of their permit.

Within 2-3 min. I was looking at a satillite picture of where they lived, you could see cars, but not make out the makes. But the picture I was looking at was taken in 1990 and I don't think any buildings had been built there yet, or I was looking at the wrong spot.

Privacy is relative, relatively non-existant. But you are for the most part anonymous as long as you don't say anything personal. For instance, an oberver could at the very least figure out that I am male, married, have 2 children, the chilrens ages, gender. approx guess education level, occupation level, interests and what city I live in. But they would have to want to do that. Anyone that interested could simply ask and probably get all the info they wanted.

John Disney
(Wed Dec 02 1998 02:43 - ID#24135)
could I have an opinion ..
Dr Mozel..
in the interest of science ..
IF Bugal ( for example ) were
placed in a perfect Vacuum ..

would his eyeballs pop out ?? AND

could WE SEE IT ??

(Wed Dec 02 1998 02:48 - ID#35757)
Kitcoites, brothers, goldbugs
This is an immutable truth: Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Our hour is at hand. Banzai!

John Disney
(Wed Dec 02 1998 03:24 - ID#24135)
above ground gold stocks
to all ..
I often see the argument made that gold's poor performance
is due to the huge amount that is held in reserve above
ground .. The implication is that platinum and silver
would perform better since large above ground stocks do not
exist .. lets take a look..

In 1974 .. typical prices for gold,platinum, and silver
were 160,145,and 4 dollars per oz.
Since then .. they have appreciated by roughly 4,3, and one
per cent per year.

The large relative amount of above ground gold has had
no effect on gold's performance versus the other 2 precious
metals over a 25 year period. ( yet I used to hear the very
same argument in 1974 when I first bought some silver ) .

(Wed Dec 02 1998 03:38 - ID#153110)
In California, anything is possible. There is a statute there that says so. And says you have to believe it, too.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:04 - ID#258195)
Tuesday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Tuesday 1st Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.24---------------4.17-------------3.85-----------------3.55
Gold Lease Rate---0.82---------------1.21-------------1.31-----------------1.54
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.52 ) ------- ( + 0.17 ) ------- ( + 0.03 ) ----------- ( - 0.01 )

Silver Lend Rate----3.90--------------3.30-------------2.50-----------------2.30
Silver Lease Rate---1.16--------------2.08--------------2.66-----------------2.79
( Change ) --------- ( + 0.14 ) -------- ( + 0.48 ) --------- ( + 0.40 ) ------------ ( + 0.34 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day
N.B. The sharp jump in 1-month $LIBOR from 5.03% Thursday to 5.56 % Friday caused the 1-month Gold and Silver Lease Rates to rise by a similar amount on Friday. I was sceptical that the $LIBOR figure of 5.56% figure in the FT could have been a misprint. But when the 1-month $LIBOR rose on Monday a little further still I had to assume this was no printing error. However, things now seem to have gone back to normal, with the $LIBOR back down to where it was early last week at 5.06%

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:06 - ID#254288)

This site should help define M1, M2 and M3, under Resources, select [Glossaries] and then [Monetary Policy Terms] from that list and scroll down to Money Stock too
see what the M's consist off. Sorry that I could't
get you there by a more direct route.

M1 is money of categories that could be accessed very quickly.

I believe its now about $1.1 trillion, if one adds other easily accessed ( readily available ) money like brokerage Mutual Fund MM Accounts and plastic money I assume we can increase this to about $1.5 trillion.

Some believe that this readily available money should be gold backed and convertable. If this were the case, the reputed US Gov. gold hoard of 262 million ounces would have to have a price of $5725 per ounce, or some percentage of that, say ( 15%, 25% 40% or higher ) .

Another idea might be for the government to set an arbitrary price. For example, $1200 with 40% gold backing the M1 money supply, this would require that the government buy an extra 238 million ounces of gold. If done over 10 years, it is do-able. This would make the gold miners very happy and allow for higher M1 backing ratios down the pike.

The above idea is just a guide and would find resistance from gold bugs and government fiats.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:13 - ID#340344)
Are you referring to the "Disneyland" section of California? ( I do not have a clue of whether you are serious. )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:28 - ID#153110)
@DisneyLand @Chas
Lordamercy, "When You WIsh Upon A Star" territory is far bigger than just California.
Walt, Not to be confused with John, Disney.
If there is not such a statute on the books in California, would it be possible to get one ? I think so. In the interest of growth. And about that I'm serious.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:29 - ID#257148)
Do not be upset that your senses deceive you, or that you may have been taught another misapprehension. The moon is not larger on the horizon by virtue of the earth's atmosphere, which varies insignificantly in depth when looked through either overhead or off to the horizon. The apparent larger size of the moon is simply an optical illusion.

Great pictures of the moon, if you canna see it out ya windows

Au_PRoducer, who spends much of his leisure time in the land of happy sheep ( did I ever tell you why NZ sheep smile all the time? ) , thinks that much antipodean banter and badinage flies o'er the heads of our merkan brethren and sistren. Or is it under their skirts? 'Strewth. mate!

Au_Producer once more sends you his best regards, we drank steinies and Black Label for many many hours. Neither stories nor laughter were held back. The waitress earned a Silver Peace dollar for her humour, and answering the vital question to the antipodean hanging simile.

The hanging simile is thus "Sweet as." "Rough as." "Kind as." These are uttered as complete sentences in noo zilund. ( Stu wanted to hear some more zilund speaching ) Au_Producer asked the waitress: "what do you mean when you say 'good as'?" She said, "Good as gold."

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:32 - ID#257148)
eye-candy Food for the world/eye/brain interface...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 04:41 - ID#35770)
Gold Chart
On Bill Buckler's page looks potentially constructive on an LT basis. It appears to indicate a massive W bottom forming over a one year period. Just by moving sideways the market is breaking out. With Y2k and a woorldwide recession and financial market bubble things are looking constructive. The quietness in the market and the drop in open interest on down days is very encouraging. The tremendous decline in Monday's open interest on a big down day was excellent.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 05:13 - ID#252391)
Open Interest Decline
I also find the decline in open interest to be "interesting" and a potentially bullish sign for future direction. Noticed in Bill Murphy's column posted ( thank you ) much earlier that Normandy Mines of Australia was closing out its short position in favor of a less obligatiory putt position. This close out might account for the drop in open interest.

Falling open interest at this time, when commodities are very weak and gold would be expected to be mirroring same, but isn't, suggests to me the shorts are more anxious to cover than the bored longs who are liquidating to them. The remaining longs would seem to be well entrenched and the shorts capable of being unnerved if things got rolling. A significant expansion in open interest at this juncture, accompanied by higher prices, would find new buyers in profit - a situation I have seen have bulish implications.

HOWEVER, an earlier poster noted that the last time open interst got this low was back in December of '95 before a rally to $425 from about $385 - what the poster ommitted, of course, was that after the rally that ended about as quickly as it began a new bear leg was lauched that took the price of gold to $280.

How strong is the Central Bank CABAL at $300?? That is the question. Will it retain its strenght into '99 or disappear. Maintianing gold at $300 is clearly an effort to demonstrate a stable courrency climate, in part for the lauch of the EURO - what resolve do the CBs have after the dawn of '99. Will their vested interests change - somehow I think not. However I do remeber reading that in the establishment of the reserves of each country in the set up of the EURO there was to be a marking to the market of dollar debt insturments -clearly Europeans would want the dollar to be strong up to the '99 for such a reason and may have been will to colude with the FED during this time period for that and other reasons.

We will see - I don't feel strongly that gold will rocket to $400 and for that very reason I'm incline to think it will.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 05:22 - ID#226299)
@the scene
It's a good thing that the market 'valuations' are not any longer based upon fundamentals, like P/E. With increasing layoffs and downsizing happening and the little problem of downsized 'earnings' taking place because of downsized business activity due to Asia and elsewheres, it certainly won't be increasing earnings keeping share prices up.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 05:47 - ID#376309)
So far so good!!!
Gold is higher this morning and the S&P is lower.

Jins - There is a real chance of a move higher and then ALL the way back down. I didn't mention it for two reasons 1 ) One step at a time. Let's start teh rally and see how it goes. 2 ) This is Kitco. We RARELY get Gold rallies. Why bum people out already but stating this is just a short term move up. Enjoy the $15 move while you can.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:01 - ID#294232)
@The Hatt RE: Your Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 23:39 The Hatt (Mooney/Soros) ID#294232:
Which refers to the article that EB commpliments me on thusly:
Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 22:04
EB ( well said moon-man ) ID#230216:
worth a re-read for many here ( I said many....that doesn't mean ALL ( ... )
found at:
Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 20:34
Mooney* ( @The Hatt, JTF, Soros, Evil and Reality ) ID#350194:
Copyright  1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

- Sorry Hatt - I was asleep at the time of your post, so I'll speak to a few of your concerns now ( my comments in brackets ) -
"Your compassion for Soros ... ( ? ) ....Have you felt the pain of hyper inflation and or 40% interest rates? Not likely! ( ...may happen to us all in NA in future - NOT really looking forward to it, thanks! ;- ( ) ...My comments have little to do with his wealth and more to do with exactly how he became wealthy. Sit tight as the true value of the USD is about to be uncovered and we will see how fast the western world blames Japan because they chose to blow off U.S. treasuries. ( ...this was one of MY points was it not? - blame a scapegoat - but not the TRUE perpetrator of the crime?... ) My hat comes off to the wealthy who made their money above board and with integrity ( ...can't argue with that one...;- ) ) ....not to the vultures who look for injured prey....."
( Well ... I guess God created vultures and maggots for a purpose too... probably so that nothing useful on a dead carcass would go to a complete waste... )
AND amasingly enough ...On THAT pleasant note I am now wishing ALL a pleasant GOOD MORNING and WONDROUS GOOD DAY.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:06 - ID#252391)
Elderado and Glenn
First, it seems gold is up a massive 20-40 cents, silver PD and PT are down as I suppose copper is - deflation is in the aire. Tese losses are taking place while the dollar is weaker so the declines seem all the more negative to me.

Second on the subject of PEs the high level of which is often the source of much bearishness on standard equities, ever note the PE on the gold shares. I bet the PE on the XAU is probably 100. Sure higher metal prices would reduce that but let's not call the keddle black.....

Should gold ever rally over $305 I suspect the rallies to be very sharp with strong down drafts - the fundlementals will have to be there or as you suggest, Glenn, we'll sink right back to where we began mcu hthe way the last spurt in PD has faltered.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:12 - ID#252391)
South African golds still trending DOWN
Whereas the 65-67 level seems a logical target for the current retreat in gold, 900 seems the same for the JSE All Gold index which is at 955 as of this posting - on its low of the day.^JGAI&d=5d


(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:37 - ID#43349)
Alllll Aboard!
If everyone has their calls ( or puts as the case may be ) in place, I am about to move the throttle levers.

This will be no little wave that laps up on the beach only to pull back again. This will be like the tide, slow ponderous and inexorable.

Like a heavy freight train pulling out, slow at first but massive and gaining speed every minute.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:50 - ID#341189)
Morning PM commentary from Europe-pretty dull

(Wed Dec 02 1998 06:57 - ID#341189)
Japanese public debt growing rapidly-$280 B this year

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:11 - ID#200274)
Campbell Resources
Someone asked about CCH. They have over 40 million in cash, and are still producing. It would seem they would be an excellent call at this price. The warrant is trading for 1/32...Any comments?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:14 - ID#365216)
A whole section of my street lost power...
last night for about 5 hours. I immediately thought of it as a
Y2K rehearsal. No heat, no power, groping in the dark to get around,
eating cereal and snacks out of the box, can't do anything I normally would like work-out, take a shower, read, watch tv. All I could do
was take an uncomfortable nap and then I went to Church to pray and
worship and then hope by the time I got back the power company had
fixed things. Fortunately, they did. It hurt for 5 hours; how much
more will it hurt for 5 days, 5 weeks, or more? I definitely need
more candles and stored goods.

That is all.

PS Looking forward to my first shipment of Plat Eagles soon.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:18 - ID#365216)
Campbell Resources
I bought Campbell at $1.00 and plan on riding it out. I think
Larry Edelson of Safe Money Report still recommends it as a good
long term play; I would buy more but I am concentrating on the physicals
at this point. I also have some International Pursuit which is at all
time lows too but could be a good long term play ( IPJ.TO )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:24 - ID#35571)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:26 - ID#35571)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:27 - ID#35571)
More bank merging?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:30 - ID#35571)
Swiss description of the second eye wall

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:33 - ID#26793)
Europe feels it should have a greater G-7 voice; U.S. not pleased at that

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:35 - ID#35571)
Key reversal

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:37 - ID#350194)
Alrea - Alrighty already ;- ) , I give up. What does the warrant get You? Seriously. Let us know.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:44 - ID#350194)
@Gollum - NO response required! ;-)
Gollum's post @ Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 07:35
Gollum ( Key reversal ) ID#35571:
is a chart worth taking a look at!
Donald @ 7:33 - When is the Empire EVER happy about sharing more power?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 07:57 - ID#35770)
Au contraire, the late trend in the ollar has been up and commodities have tanked. Gold has acted surprisingly well in this sitution. As to stocks with the spreading deflation and recession there will little if any E in the P/E. For all we know we may now be trading at 100 times 2000 earnings. By then the depression should be in full throttle and of course well recognized. Dow 1300 in the Summer of 2000.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:06 - ID#35571)
Read with care

Gold stocks are firm and seem to be willing to move higher. They remain an excellent hedge against stock market risk. Energy stocks are going nowhere, reflecting the weakness of the underlying commodity.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:30 - ID#256365)
heard it on the Radio
It is official, Y2k will be a big deal. I didn't hear it from any programers, govt officials, utility or banking representatives. I heard it from Pam and Tom in the Morning, on my way home from work. I'm not smiling, I'm serious, it matters not if the computers will be fixed or not, it dosn't matter if the lights will stay on. It dosn't matter if the whole thing was a hoax. Civilization is going to crack, perhaps fall asunder. I don't know if its like this in the rest of the world, perhaps this is unique to the US. But within a week, most every radio station in the country will talk at least 5 min about y2k, some for hours. Next week there will be one or two brief "focus" segments on the evening news. By Feb or March, there will be a "very special" Oprah episode on preparation. Martha Stewart will do a number of shows on canning, how to use quilts to keep out the winter chill. By the middle of summer Martha Stewart will show us how to butcher small game. Local news will have local updates as to how the utilities and other critical services are doing. There will likely be brief shortages of things that people think would be usefull. But I think the supply chain will hold for now, not everyone will wake up at percisely the same moment.

We have some time left. Not enough to fix the problems, probably not enough to make effective contingency plans. I think this will be the dark ages, but we have perhaps enough time to prepare ourselves in our attitudes. I am speaking from a very American-centric perspective, but the following applies to all countries. We have never ever as a nation faced such a great crisis. But we have faced bad things in the past and we have always faced them well. We have time, there will be famine and horrible hardships, but we have time as a nation to ensure that even if our nation does not survive, we shall not become barbarians. Though we may be forced to live like animals for a long time, we shall not become as animals.

To keep this post on topic I should say something about precious metals. I don't think fundamental factors matter anymore. I don't think that technical indicators mean anything anymore. By the time Oprah shows us how to make small game snares, and Julie Childs shows us how to dry roast grasshoppers, the price of gold and silver will have gone up significantly.

Well the sun is up, and it is bedtime for me. Good Morning to you all

Chicken man
(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:37 - ID#341297)
alrea @ warrants
Campbell Resources warrants--expire 2.26.99....strike @ 1.50...if CCH goes up 6 times present price in the next 70 days you will have a winner

Just a thought...Chicken man

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:40 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Aldebaran -- My inclination is to 'fade' the media hype. Can't help it. They are always wrong.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:46 - ID#333127)
IMHO don't buy a thing until tax selling is over, unless xau hits 65 or less.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:46 - ID#266105)
survey sez

The second wall will be:

1. CAT5

2. 4

3. 3

4. 2...

Voyeur Professor
(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:48 - ID#231112)

I, too, own Campbell Resources and agree with you they are positioned to survive the gold bear. Take a look at their cash reserves which are high for a small company.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:48 - ID#288186)
For those Elliott wave followers, Peter DeSario had some interesting comments
on where we might be in regards to the Dec S&P. According to Peter,
it looks like prices completed an initial five-wave decline from Friday's
high to Tuesday's 1151.40 low. It then had a "corrective" rally on
Tuesday that could have been completed at the 1178.70 high. If so,
a resumption could be expected of a much larger decline that could
conceivably take prices back down to below the October low.Hmmmmmmm
Worth keeping an eye on, ain't it? BTW, GO GOLD! GO SILVER!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 08:56 - ID#35571)
Silver crash

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:06 - ID#411259)
..... mozel .....

Your 00:51 caught my eye, but seems disingenuous
Our consternation about the proper properties of light
Has zero to do with questioning authority.

Facts is facts, mon!
Your best response
Would have been "Oooops"
Rather than defend
The indefensible

I understand you have sources
For the info you post
But a source, alas
Is like the evacuation portal
Every Bean comes equipped with

Having a source of info
Is not nearly as important
As have a GOOD source of info.

Always consider the source


I enjoy reading your posts
And am impressed by your debating prowess
But some other clever folks around here abound
These are your friends and family
You can trust that we are not trying to steer you wrong
Nor are we duped by the duplicitous fornicators of truth
Over which you rail - and for good cause.

I have rarely agreed with all you say
But I read it all, because your message is valid
Your enthusiasm does tend towards exuberance though

Righty O

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:08 - ID#25233)
Thanks to all who took the time to answer my 1:18 list o' questions.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:14 - ID#350194)
@alrea and Chickenman
Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 08:37
Chicken man ( alrea @ warrants ) ID#341297:
Campbell Resources warrants--expire 2.26.99....strike @ 1.50...if CCH goes up 6
times present price in the next 70 days you will have a winner

Just a thought...Chicken man

alrea - IF Chicken man is correct that the strike for the warrants is $1.50 ( and WHO could doubt...Chick-ennn...MANNNN! ) , then it looks like you'd better take your three cents and throw it on an Australian gold stock ( some of them sell for that ) - at least taht way you'll have staying power. This thing is going to expire worthless! 52 week high for Campbell stock was about $.92 and closed yesterday at 1/4? Gold could hit $350. by Feb . and I doubt CCH would see $1.25. Your only other chance is to hope taht Gold has a pop up to $310-320 by then and somehow warrants hit 1/4 on the bigger fool theory and then GET OUT! Good Luck.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:15 - ID#286230)
Campbell Resources
A cheap way to get a lot of shares and the company seems well run. One point to consider is the large number of shares currently floating around.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:17 - ID#339274)
67 on the horizon

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:20 - ID#354133)
Bosnian Currency = chewing gum and chocolate bars and...
...whatever else is available. But now they have "hard" currency. Didn't say what the Konvertibilna Marka would be valued at in ECUs....

Bosnia Set To Put New Coins Into Circulation

Associated Press

SARAJEVO, BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA -- A shipment of 9 million newly minted coins reached Bosnia on Tuesday to replace chewing gum and chocolate bars
as the country's loose change.

The coins, made by London's Royal Mint, are the first to reach Bosnia since summer, when the country introduced a new currency, the Konvertibilna Marka. The currency, valued at one German mark, or about 63 cents, had been issued only in bank notes until now.

Bosnian shops use chewing gum as ersatz 10 Fening coins and small chocolate bars to replace 20 Fening coins. There are 100 Fenings to the Marka.

"We will waste no time putting the coins into circulation . . . so that people can feel them jingling in their pockets," said Peter Nicholl, the governor of Bosnia's Central Bank.

The 10, 20 and 50 Fening coins are to be put into general circulation this month.

Bosnia's market used up to four different currencies until the Kovertibilna Marka was launched.

The German Mark remains accepted everywhere.

From the Minneapolis Star Tribune, December 2, 1998

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:22 - ID#45173)
Plat and silver
Down and down thye go.

Where they stop, nobody knows.

Except maybe Gollum.

So what's keeping gold up?


THE Priest
(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:24 - ID#357334)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:26 - ID#411259)
..... JD .....

You wrote:

"The large relative amount of above ground gold has had no effect on gold's performance versus the other 2 precious metals over a 25 year period."

I would ask you to look at the last two years
As gold consistently fell
Silver and platinum rose
Many days moving in opposite directions

Perhaps you can further illuminate
( oops, illuminate has too many "light" connotations
And we are done with THAT subject for awhile, yes? )
How is it that the abundant supply of gold
Fueled by cheap gold leases
Has not been responsible
For our fair yellow sister's
Fall from grace?



The silver wedgie up thingy
Is proving that my original wedgie hypothesis
Has some problems in ultimate outcome
I coulda' sworn all wedgies are pulled up

Silver is getting pantsed


(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:29 - ID#35571)
The throttle has been pulled. The gold freight is building momentuum. One can't give it too much throttle at first or the wheels slip.

Hear the diesels throb as they feed power to the turbo generators. The whole thing has only moved inches and taken the slack out of the couplings so far. But moved it has and moving it is even if too little to see yet.

We've got 14,000 tons of gold bullion loaded in those cars.

But no silver.

Silver is for later.

For those who wait too late to catch the freight, the silver rocket is being put together.

Can't go too fast until we pass dead man's curve, then we pour it on.

Hail Mary and pass the diesel fuel!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:29 - ID#367411)
Tanking hard.....
Hats off to APH........the scenario seems to be coming true.......sorry to see plat & silver tank so hard.......

Good luck to all,


(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:30 - ID#348286)
@Square One
I guess we're back to "attack all commodities mode", and buy paper.
Now silver, copper plunging. I don't believe what any analyst says, "WE ARE IN DEFLATION".
Job cuts ( latest: Boeing Mobil ) are ravaging the common working man, while CEO's and the equity industry reap the billions in benefits - they are the only winners in this game.
"How many BILL GATES will it take, where all the money will be in the hands of a wealthy few???"
Who will the interest rate cuts help if you are on welfare?
I believe we are at or near a crissis point........

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:31 - ID#350194)
@Selby and ALL
Did you get your mail? Coming to the party?
ALL - Just a reminder: the Unofficial Kitcoite Holiday Gathering for any and ALL who can make it to the Toronto area is scheduled for Sat. DEC. 12th from 1:00 - 4:00 at a local eatery. For further info or to confirm that you can attend email me ( Stephen Mooney ) @:
So far we have confirmed a couple of ladies ( Hurray! ) , Rhody, Mooney, Steve in TO, possibly Mike Stewart ( Great TSE index updates, Mike! ) , a Mining stock anaylyst, ( in Argentina this week checking out a new gold mine ) , from one of the Bay street firms, other lurkers, and possibly some special guests arriving from far off places ( you know who you are ) ! Also waiting to here from other Toronto area locals such as Selby, 6 Pak, Squirrel ( ? ) , Bulley Beef ( ? ) etc.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:34 - ID#339274)
Covered my short and gone long 20 1/4

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:34 - ID#255226)
If 4.40 in the Dec contract is hit today or anytime this week it would activate the 10K hypothetical silver trading account, stay tuned. If the xau gets hit today it shouldn't go any lower then 65.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:36 - ID#290281)
Watching Silver this morning,,,,,time to go cook a turkey
Turkey Recipe

Step 1: Go buy a turkey.

Step 2: Take a drink of whiskey. ( Scotch )

Step 3: Put turkey in the oven.

Step4: Take another 2 drinks of whiskey.

Step 5: Set the degree at 375 ovens.

Step 6: Take 3 more whiskeys of drink.

Step 7: Turn oven the on.

Step 8: Take 4 whisks of drinky.

Step 9: Turk the bastey.

Step 10:Whiskey another bottle of get.

Step 11: Stick a turkey in the thermometer.

Step 12: Glass yourself a pour of whiskey.

Step 13:Take the whiskey for 4 hours.

Step 14:Take the oven out of the turkey.

Step 15:Floor the turkey up off of the pick.

Step 16: Turk the carvey.

Step 18:Get yourself another scottle of botch.

Step 19: Tey the sable and pour yourself a glass of turkey.

Step 20:Bless the saying, pass and eat out!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:37 - ID#339274)
Behaviour very bullish,something is up

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:39 - ID#288186)
This is Bizarre...Feb Gold is up, currently at 296.50...
Plat and Silver are down. Mar silver @ 4.79. ok. We've been told to
wait till Silver hits 4.40 by APH. I'm having that itchy phone finger,
though. Will it go that low? If gold doesn't tank very much, will silver
really make it all the way to 4.40? Tell me it will. Tell me to be
patient. Thanks. Fox-man

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:40 - ID#348286)
OIL: Mexico derives 40% of it's income from oil. Mexico expected an average of $11.50 per barrel of oil in it's budget.
At current prices, mexico gets $7.50 PB for it's grade of oil.
Camdesses where are you ???????

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:43 - ID#339274)
Get ready,71.8 will be the launching pad

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:44 - ID#286230)
Check your e-mail. I'll try to find a spot that will hold 15 people in a quiet room on a Saturday afternoon.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:47 - ID#350194)
Silver Triangle (wedge, Pennant,?) Break-out.
Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 09:29
THC ( Tanking hard..... ) ID#367411:
Hats off to APH........the scenario seems to be coming true.......sorry to see plat &
silver tank so hard...
Don't take it so hard THC - its not your fault! There has been many notations here for the last month or so that Silver was in a tight pattern and could break either way. Silver seemed to be giving lots of warning the last week or so that it was weakening ( as noted here by quite a few ) . IF it gets down to that $4.00-4.40 range that has been bantied about, who could think of a safer level to get stocked up at? In fact I would seriously consider recommending to any and all that hold a lot of Gold bullion to convert a substantial part of it out of Gold and into Silver below $4.50 - Closest thing to a no-brainer I've seen except some of the posters 'round here. HEY WHOA - Just a joke guys and gals! ( BTW - for those superstitious types around here. $293.25 ( Gold ) divided by $4.40 ( Silver ) = 66.6

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:47 - ID#365216)
If you think it will hit 4.40 but you don't want to miss the boat
either if it doesn't hit, why not start dollar-cost-averaging your
predetermined amount over the course of several weeks or months.
In the long run you will win if silver does goes up eventually.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:53 - ID#350194)
Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 09:34
APH ( Silver ) ID#255226:
If 4.40 in the Dec contract is hit today or anytime this week it would activate the 10K
hypothetical silver trading account, stay tuned. If the xau gets hit today it shouldn't go
any lower then 65.
WHOA _ If Silver dropped $.50 in ONE day I think that there would be a second big down day before the recovery bounce. REET? When you have time explain the 10k account to us - sounds interesting!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:53 - ID#433143)
Watch out fo rthe villians with the dynamite, I heard they were going to blow up the pass. : (

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:56 - ID#280215)
FOX-MAN: Re: Silver Low
Not too experienced in this area. But I understand that many play a spread between gold and silver ( ie.. Buy gold, sell silver or Buy silver, sell gold ) . Maybe some more familiar with this can elaborate on this and the idea behind it. But it does exist. This might be one explanation as to why gold stays up while silver tanks -- and vice versa when gold is tanking and silver is rising. Any feedback in this area is appreciated.

By the way, RJ mentioned this a few weeks ago that the monthly gold chart looked like it was showing the buy of a lifetime. Looking at it and applying all of the momentum and price indicators such as stochastics and MACD, it looks right on. However, if you look at Monthly silver, it looks pretty bad. No bottoming patterns or divergences at all like Monthly gold is showing. For example, Monthly gold stochastics had hooked up months ago and are rising. But if you can, take a look at Monthly silver. Its Stochastics have been pointing down hard for months and have not reached bottom. It looks ugly if you are looking for a major short term upmove.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 09:56 - ID#350194)
Selby - If YOU can make it we are really going to party! Maybe we can get some of the other long-time Kitcoites down also such as FRONT who is up in the North Woods - Close to the Capital - so I hear. ;- )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:06 - ID#339274)
Went short again a loss of 1/8,20 1/8.Hui is breaking down

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:08 - ID#350194)
Toronto Kitcoite Holiday Gathering Gaining Momentum as Silver Loses Ground!
Three More Confirmations Folks! - Including Selby! Mike Stewart! and Special Guest Y2K Survival Consultant from Kitchener area! ( That's you Jerry - ;- ) )
Bart - Are you listening? Any chance you'll make it down from La Belle Province? That's if you can still REMEMBER how to get across the border!
( It's a Canadian joke, people! )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:10 - ID#35571)
I was expecting the second wall to hit about the second or third week of December, but we may be into it today!!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:10 - ID#369352)
I agree with you, and I see it here on Wall Street. Look at the CRB index and watch it drop day after day...and of course Slick Willie is still saying that unemployment is the lowest ever...or since he came to one mentioned that they just forgot to count all the ballets of those filing unemployment insurance...lets see Boing adds 28,000 and Mobil adds 11,000 or so, and CITIGROUP adds 8,000 and, and, and....BUT as long as the CEO keeps getting HIS millions in salary plus stock, whats' the worry...I wonder what would happen if they paid these guys $5.50 an hour ( sounds about what they are worth ) ...don't you?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:10 - ID#365216)
Create your own y2k sales website and get 25% commission:

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:12 - ID#350194)
@Shadowfax @Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 09:36
BTW - Shawdowfax - If you recover by the 12th you are more than welcome to attend! Bring more receipes!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:13 - ID#354133)
Dollar cost averaging for "peace"?
Do you folks think it is worth it?

Cost Of Peace For The U.S.

Beyond US spending for normal military deterrence of war, the US also spends large amounts to encourage peace in world trouble spots.

Here are some big expenditures:

*For Israeli-Egypt peace this year - $5.1 billion ( aid to Israel since 1979 - $74 billion; cumulative aid to Egypt - $51 billion ) .

*Assistance to Rwanda - $450 million since the 1994 genocide.

*Contribution to UN peacekeeping - About $250 million this year.

*Oil given to North Korea to drop its nuclear project - $35 million a year.

*For 1992-95 operation in Somalia - $2.2 billion.

*For former Soviet states, including Russia, to scrap various nuclear, chemical, and other weapons - $2 billion.

*Military peacekeeping costs in Bosnia this fiscal year - $1.86 billion.

From the Christian Science Monitor, December 2, 1998

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:14 - ID#369352)
I think we are sitting in "Breakheart Pass" now...any idea how long the layover is?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:20 - ID#35571)
My feeling is we are only seeing some leading edge buffeting. I am going to guess next week.

John Disney
(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:38 - ID#24135)
I knew you'd say that ..
.. I took a 25 year period to try to discourage that type of
comment .. I knew it wouldn't work.
within the 25 period .. shorter periods can of course
be isolated where silver has out performed gold .. and
vice versa ..

the same goes for platinum ..

IF as you suggest .. above ground gold stocks have been
holding the gold price back .. then what has been holding
silver and even lovely platinum back.. ??

despite all the reports Ive seen about the s/d shortage
of platinum, it continues weak.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:40 - ID#433242)
There is going to be a real big eye opening experience in the next several years for the citizens of this country. Not only the economy, but the threat of biological, chemical and possible nuclear weapons used against us. Would this not be a judgement against the immorality and stupidity the majority of Americans have these days?? I hate to see it but it is obviously going to happen. Anyone one else have any opinions?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:42 - ID#20359)
The quantity of gold above ground has ZERO, ZIP, NADA to do with the price of the
yellow metal...end of story...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:48 - ID#286230)
I don't have much of an opinion but just what could the US ( I assume ) have done to avoid a judgement re: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and their use?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:55 - ID#350288)

Has anyone heard why GRERF was halted yeasterday and resumed trading today 12% higher. There was news to be released but I cant find the news anywhere.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 10:57 - ID#262242)
Sorry I can not make the Toronto Kitco get-to-gether. I will be in Phoenix Arizona December 6th to 10th. Would enjoy having a cup of coffee with any Kitcoits in the area.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:01 - ID#254321)
A little nuclear 'terrorism' from North Korea
All: North Korea is getting ready for another missle launch. Probably over Japan. Could be this one will reach Alaska. One will eventually.

Just a thought -- one does not need James Bond movie type maneuvers if you are a country. All you need to do is show you have the capability to launch a multistaged missle, and have the nuclear warhead stashed somewhere. Works even better if the country you threaten has no anti-missle defense capability.

I don't like the looks of this -- if not for me, for the next generation.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:01 - ID#13953)
propaganda machine (aka ad campaign) is already starting. Banks are
despirate to stave off the inevitable run as people panic from y2k fears. So, they are fear mongering themselves now, telling people that the criminals will have a y2k plan to rob you of the cash you took out of the bank. Safest place for your money is the BANK. That guy on 60 Minutes who said that the bank will lose your deposit must have scared the bankers sh*tless. Be ready for ads to run non stop to convince you not to withdraw your funds.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:02 - ID#350194)
@RJ, Tolerant1, J.D. and ALL - What Price Gold? Who's Winning the War?
RJ - I certainly agree with T1 - he's a big 10-4 on that. ( "Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 10:42 tolerant1 ( The quantity of gold above ground has ZERO, ZIP, NADA to do with the price of the ) ID#20359: yellow metal...end of story..." )
Let's face it - the population of the world has risen far more rapidly this Century than has the above ground supply of gold. Therefore the per capita ratio of gold has gone down. Price has fluctuated widely this century ( as has the price of all commodities and currencies. WHY? The price of Gold presently is being determined by which side is winning the latest skirmish in the war. Who are the combatants in this War? Who are the big winners and who are the great losers? If the world was again on a Gold Standard could economies better plan and grow without such wild booms and busts as we have witnessed this Century? Would citizens have less freedom than they have now from the oppressive yoke of governments, or less? These are the questions that need to be be addressed by all thinking persons at this forum.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:07 - ID#339274)
Covered 19 13/16 and long

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:07 - ID#344326)
@ mapleman
Follow this link to the message board at YAHOO on GRERF. Read the messages. ( It looks good )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:09 - ID#189269)

the reason for the the halt and jump in price on Greenstone is this news release.

Greenstone retains financial advisor

TORONTO, Dec. 1 /CNW/ - In response to unsolicited expressions of

interest by several mining companies, Greenstone Resources Ltd. has


Nesbitt Burns Inc. as advisors to assist the Company in identifying and

evaluating alternatives to enhance shareholder value.

``We believe that Greenstone's share price does not reflect the value of

its assets. Our responsibility as directors and officers is to address this issue directly by pursuing dialogues with several companies which may result in the sale or merger of the Company, or a strategic financing option,'' said President Rudi Fronk. The Board has appointed a special committee of independent directors to manage the process on behalf of the Company.

As part of its mandate, Nesbitt Burns will assist the Company in seeking

amendments to its revolving credit facility to improve the terms of

Greenstone's borrowing arrangements.

Greenstone owns and operates the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, the

Cerro Mojon and Bonanza gold mines in Nicaragua and is currently

commissioning the San Andres gold mine in Honduras. Greenstone's common shares are listed on The Toronto Stock Exchange ( GRE ) and the Nasdaq Stock Market ( GRERF ) .

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:12 - ID#390415)
Pat Buchanan on Economic Nationalism
Excellent text of speech by Pat Buchanan on the so-called "free trade" issue. You might not agree - I am not sure I do - but it is a well-articulated position.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:26 - ID#290281)
Sure wish I could get to Toronto for this one but will make the next one for sure.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:28 - ID#350288)

Does sound encouraging. Grerf has been bothering me lately. Picked up most of mine in the 1.25 -1.31 range thinking it was oversold at that price. Recovering now back to 1.2?. I'll hold em and see what happens. Thanks again.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:34 - ID#254321)
Impeachment proceedings -- Monica only?
All: Anyone wondering why K Starr has focused only on the Monica situation, when there is so much more? That is the only xxxGate case where the president is clearly involved, rather than an underling.

No one seems to want to touch the detective group that works for the president, and gathers information, or terrorizes potential witnesses. The reason may be disturbing. It is probably because the Republicans have enough dirt in their own FBI files that they are afraid to go after the president on such matters. Add a little politics to the mix -- namely that the public is perceived as being uninterested in MonicaGate, and you have a formula for an impeachment proceeding that will not even make it out of the House.

This may also explain why KS will keep the investigation going another two years. Then he ( or others ) can go for criminal charges with much less risk of a smear counterattack from the WhiteHouse. Also, he is much more likely to get somewhere with a court of law than with an intimidated congress.

I hope I am wrong about this. I also hope that Kenneth Starr can release some more info so that we can get this overwith. If congress were really concerned about the well being of our democratic system, they should enlarge the impeachment proceedings, and go after some real meat, or hold off until there is something they can go after. Watering down the impeachment proceedings will only force criminal hearings years later and that will be much more damaging to our system.

Perhaps Matt Drudge et all need to leak something else really bad before congress will have the gumption to get on with it.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:36 - ID#26793)
Ecuador declares national emergency in order to raid its own central bank

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:40 - ID#408236)
@ ALL re LEASE RATES: The 10 c per oz collapse of silver
today was a predictable result of shorting, with one month lease rates
rising .16% as a precursor. I continue to watch lease rates as the
best indicator of shorting. I too have hesitated to buy until that
4.40 near term gap has been filled. Thanks to Dabchick, the collapse
today was anticipated. If gold takes off ( unlikely ) silver may
recover without reaching its chart indicated bottom. FWIW. Rhody

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:45 - ID#26793)
London afternoon gold, silver and general PM news

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:46 - ID#35571)
more buffeting

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:56 - ID#275170)
Over at cbs.marketwatch!
Here are some commentd from Thom Calandra.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 11:58 - ID#45173)
Repeat of yesterday?
Or will the DOW hold the loss?

Dow 9001.47 -132.07 ( -1.45% )

In any case, this much is clear.


It's baaaaaaack!

The first winds from the other wall, as Gollum suggests?

My gut sense is that this will not be a Merry Christmas for investors who got into this suckers' rally late.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:00 - ID#433242)
EJ, the only reason the market is down is because of profit taking! YEAH RIGHT! If you believe the so called experts and their opinions, I have some great coastal land for you out her in West TEXAS!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:01 - ID#433242)
EJ, the only reason the market is down is because of profit taking! YEAH RIGHT! If you believe the so called experts and their opinions, I have some great coastal land for you out her in West TEXAS!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:08 - ID#254321)
Gold and Silver Trends -- up or down?
All: So what is up? Are we seeing the silver longs trying to shake out the weak players, or is another the deflationary wave about to hit us -- South America instead of SEAsia?

Please be careful -- the gold and silver 'buy' that you are seeing may not be what it appears to be, but the first sign of big time trouble. As I remember, when SEAsia went down the tubes, gold took in on the chin. I think it even preceeded the drop in the markets.

No matter what happens, if the markets really drop, gold equities and probably gold will go down. If the markets just churn, gold/gold equities will go up. Just think about Ecuador. The last thing you sell is your gold -- if you are running out of assets to purchase food and shelter. And this appears to be just what Ecudador is doing. Does Mexico have any gold? I'm pretty sure we do not need to worry about Venezuela, or Brazil.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:13 - ID#350194)
@Shawdowfax, BillnOregon, Mapleman, Truenorth, Crazytimes and Rhody
Shawdowfax - The gang would have really enjoyed witnessing your culinary presentation. Bill - next time! Mapleman, Truenorth and Crazytimes - with names like those you just got to try and make it! Rhody - If silver has another one day $.10 dive - I think that that same day or the next day it may cave. Silver ( in the past ) has often taken two or three small hits and then margins get hit and/or chart watchers take over and heavy selling comes in whereupon Silver has a very sharp down day. If this ( big down day ) occurs it tests ones nerves to get in at the 'right' time! With Silver already being so low it is very unlikey that we would have more than 1 1/2 sharp down days before a nice recovery bounce.
APH - will have to give more updates!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:14 - ID#339274)
price & time
Next ten minutes time squares price,we'll see .still long nem
volume down to a trickle.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:14 - ID#45173)
Boeing is providing investors with what we in the marketing biz call a "proof statement"
Investors have suspected that Asia will not improve quickly and that the steady degrading of Asian economies will continue to put a drag on the US economy. Now Boeing, the icon of US success in the Global Economy, supplies irrefutable evidence in the form of production cuts and layoffs that will last for years.

Shall the equities markets now begin in earnest to price in the long-term deflationary implications of worldwide over-capacity and over-indebtedness?

I believe so.
Boeing sees Asia woes lasting 2-5 years

SEATTLE, Dec 2 ( Reuters ) - Boeing Co. President and Chief Operating Officer Harry Stonecipher Wednesday predicted the Asian economic crisis dragging down the airplane manufacturer could last two to five more years.

``It's not a pretty picture,'' he told reporters in a conference call after Boeing announced plans to slash production and jobs over the next two years.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:15 - ID#35571)
Diesels still throbbing
One whole turn of the drive wheels, we've moved the length of a man's body and more.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:21 - ID#339274)
off to the races.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:21 - ID#275170)
Just a reminder from a lone voice just 10 and 6 days ago! It' Over!!
Date: Sun Nov 22 1998 17:54
kapex ( Take the money and RUN!!!! ) ID#218248:
Copyright  1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

We now have hit 5-year highs in bullish sentiment, 57%, versus 31.6% bears. Everyone I talk to, and I mean everyone is in this market. I have never seen sentiment this optimistic! This market is in deep s _ _ t!!
I would even go so far as to say the top of Wave ( 2 ) is complete. The pattern was an a-b-c -x- a-b-c. Put call ratio hit 40 on Friday, which is one tick off the 5 year, lows. This is not the kind of action that you see after a 20% decline! Reality is about to set in. Every index with the exception of the Dow declined in 5 waves. Most people who were calling for devastating new lows have all changed their tune. Why? I had stated near the lows that the wave 2 up would be breathtaking, and suck everyone back in. It has, including the most die-hard bears.
Just remember, this market won't telegraph it's next decline. You just better be the heck out of the way when it begins. SELL NOW!!!!

Date: Thu Nov 26 1998 13:30
kapex ( The E-wave explanation is from GET. Tom Joeseph. ) ID#237260:
Date: Thu Nov 26 1998 13:22
kapex ( Here may be an E-wave explanation to the stock markets behavior ) ID#237260:
Copyright  1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

the last few months. As I've said, ( oh, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE )
before, my predisposition is to watch the sentiment. When this is at extremes like it was, IMHO, ( for the PM's and the stock market ) earlier this year, then I feel confident of expressing an opinion as to a change in the trend.
It is then that I will look for corroborating ( SP ) tools to validate my suspicions as to whether the markets have truly changed direction. Elliot is one of the best tools for telling you where you were! Notice I said WERE. It's predictive ability comes in when you ARE on the right count and can forecast future moves with respect to correct count and the use of fibbonacci levels of retracements.
The market declined in July in 5 waves down with 3 waves up right to .382 levels of the declines. What it didn't tell you is that this bubble had a little further to go.
With that said, lets see where we stand right now by looking at the internals as well as the current sentiment of the stock market, that is obvious to all, as well as other gages that are not looked at nearly as closely.
Back in July, the put call ratio nearly tied its 5-year low by hitting 40 puts for every 100 calls. This level was hit two days in a row
back in August of 97, right at the top. The A-D line Finally failed this July after confirming every new high previously. Mutual fund cash levels were at levels NEVER seen before, I believe and the Investors Intelligence survey of bulls Vs bears were also at highs. In July I don't believe they were 5-year highs. We all know the public's sentiment on the market, as surveys and comments have been posted here many times. Everyone I talk to is not afraid,AT ALL!!!
Now lets take a look at where we are right NOW!
Friday and Monday, the put call ratio tied those two back to back 5-year records of 39-40. Investors intelligence shows the level of bulls at 5 year highs of 57% last Wednesday.The A-D line did not even surpass the last little high it made on the way down.
But heres the thing that has convinced me that this market is truly done. Even the prominent bears that were looking for much lower prices during the decline have all agreed that this market has got more left on the upside.

Where are the bears????? "The Great 401K Bubble of 98"is complete.
The advance from the lows was so breathtaking that it sucked everyone back in. Yet all internal measures of the markets health are screaming, run for the exits!!
Now ask yourself a question. If this were to be the supercycle top, and we are headed into the abyss, how do you think it would end?
Right, with as many as possible looking for higher prices!!
Gold and Silver are the same only in reverse!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:26 - ID#333127)
Right on the cliff edge

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:27 - ID#252150)
Xmas almost here &20,000 more layoffs this week.....HO, HO, HO--not for them.
No doubt though, that the CEOs will still continue to receive their obscene multi-million $ salaries + bonuses.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:28 - ID#350179)
Not confirming XAU resistance

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:28 - ID#339274)
xau turned positive
If short better cover : )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:30 - ID#365216)
Y2K Cash Plan of Action:
1. Figure out how much cash you want on hand on 1 Jan 2000.

2. Start now a systematic withdrawal plan ( say once a week )
to take money out of your accounts and into cash.

3. Store your cash in a safe place ( NOT A SAFETY DEPOSIT BOX )
such as in a home vault, underground storage tube, hidden
storage area in your home, etc. Implement security measures
such as motion detectors, trip-wire-activated tear gas canisters,
commercial security ( ADT, BRinks, etc. ) , etc. Get a loud dog
if practical.

4. Keep your stash of cash a secret ( along with your other stores ) .

5. If Y2K turns out to be a dud, use your cash discretely in small
amounts to avoid being categorized as a "drug dealer" like when
buying groceries, gas, rent/mortgage, car payments, etc.

6. Put your money back into the bank just like you took it out;
systematically and in small amounts.

7. If Y2K is not a dud, start looking around for some real bargains
( and I hope you have your gun with you to protect yourself while
making these transactions ) .

Will it happen? I hope not. COuld it happen? You betcha.

That is all.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:32 - ID#45173)
DOW dipped briefly below 9000 yesterday
Today it's holding further under the 9000 mark. If it stays down there for more than an hour, it'll take brass ones to buy in. It'll fall futher. My guess, if the DOW is still below 9000 at 2pm, it closes down more than 200 today.

Dow 8984.73 -148.81 ( -1.63% )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:32 - ID#254321)
US dollar dropping, Cry0 dropping
All: Looks a bit like a horse race -- one wins and gold goes up -- the other wins and gold goes down. Liquidity crisis, phase II?

Could be gold bullion weathers this one out. I can't wait until all this deflationary stuff winds down, and the course is clear. Right now the chop is getting worse -- in all directions.

Keep your powder dry ( in cash ) -- looks like another precious metals investing opportunity is coming up -- fairly soon.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:34 - ID#35571)
Time to give the ol' DOW lever another boot

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:34 - ID#339274)
Time has squared now ,a resolve is coming .I think it is to the

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:36 - ID#350179)
If 69.75 holds up for 5 more min I'm with you.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:39 - ID#119358)
@for whom the sleigh bells toll.....are ya' listenin?
Bumped into the angel of death at the costume rental place this morn'. Yup, he was pickin' up his santa outfit...said he was headed up New York way, to a street'o'walls. HuH? Added that he's pretty much through with his work around here. That ol' prick's always lookin' for somebody's bubble to burst. surely, good riddance.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:40 - ID#288466)
FWIW - Interim Bulletin from Elliott Wave Theorist
Just received and opened.

"Despite the miniscule new high in the blue chip indexes and the wild speculation in internet stocks, the broad market averages ( Value Line, Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000, etc. ) have averaged only a 2/3 retracement of their April-October declines as of Friday's close. In other words, these indexes reveal a classic Elliott wave picture at the start of a bear market. The October-November rally saw the weakest breadth performance of the year, which has let to the most bearish sentiment background of the year. Today's down opening suggest that the market is respecting this 2/3 retracement level and is probably at the onset of the next declining wave. I suggest reinstating bear-oriented strategies now."

Go huntin' BEAR!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:42 - ID#369352)
DOW Under pressssssssuuuuuuuurrrrreeeeee
Like a boiler that is about ready to blow, so see the dow!! We passed into new low territory as the dow blasted thru 8990...and during lunch hour in NY....not bad...maybe the the dow is busting at the seems with self rightous bull talk...What do ya think...24,000 by year end...I don't know??? Maybe the FED will come in and lower interest rates a point or two...or the PPT and their buy programs at 3PM?

Gollum...can you get that train moving any faster...If this thing blows, we may be in the path....

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:42 - ID#35571)
Let me see, where did I put that BEARX order form?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:42 - ID#45173)
U.S. stocks sink at midday, worried by profit fears
The world's largest aerospace company said the financial crisis in Asia meant it would slash production lines and cut another 20,000 jobs. That brings the number of planned layoffs to 48,000. Boeing also frightened Wall Street with a forecast that Asia's economic crisis could last two to five more years.

``Whatever faint hope people had that there might be a recovery in Asia just went out the window with that,'' said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:45 - ID#35571)
Sorry. We're pulling so much weight that any more throttle just makes the wheels slip on the rails. Maybe if some one got out and poured a little sand under the drive wheels.

It may start slow, but once this juggernaut get's rolling nothing is gonna stop it.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:47 - ID#288186)
I'm still a beginner on EWT, so silverbaron, kapex, or anyone feel free to help
me here. It appear to me that the DOW had completed 5 waves down from
the 1196.20 high to Tuesday's 1151.40 low. Could this be considered
a wave 1 down? It then corrected on Tuesday to 1178.70. This could be
considered wave 2 up? It is now heading down today in a wave 3. Is
this analysis correct? TIA, Fox-man

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:49 - ID#252150)
The Bear is snarling & snorting & badly wounded but he keeps getting back up. The ananlyst & touts
Meanwhile the anal-ysts, money mgrs & touts are running out of ammo & fear & panic is overwhelming them. Their year end bonuses are slipping out of reach.
An example of how ridiculous the analysts are getting occured yesterday when one of them upgraded Sun Micro. His only reason was that if MSFT & Cisco deserve a P/E of 50,, then so does Sun. Most of them have either lost touch with reality or are actively participating in the biggest stock mkt scam in history.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:53 - ID#275170)
FOX-MAN: The S&P has yet to complete it's 1st 5waves down, the DOW
is completing it's 5th wave down as we speak! The fact that they are declining in 5's is very ominus!!! The sentiment IMHO, was as bullish as i have ever seen it! Look out below.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:57 - ID#35571)
The second wall is always the worst one
and this time we don't have Puetz or Golden Prophet to save the day.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 12:59 - ID#275170)
FOX-MAN: Also keep in mind that it could extend which means that what looks like
wave1-2-3-4, could be wave ( 1 ) ( 2 ) , then -1- -2- and we are begining wave 3 of 3 of wave 1. Does that make any sense to you?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:00 - ID#45173)
When Puetz or Golden Prophet show up we'll know the market has bottomed.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:01 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: Time for the PPT
Now just who in their riight miind would buy S&P
futures right now?

RR has probably already signed his name to the
draft and is heading over to the WH to get just one
more signature.

Watch the S & P Futures.....1160.00 right now.
Already moved 2 points while I was typing this post.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:02 - ID#369352)
The Snowball is rolling down the hill faster than the fund managers
Ask a fund manager how to spell BEARX? Is that like the big flushing sound that we heard from NAFTA? Maybe we could "Off Shore" source some of our CEO's they definately work cheaper...and produce the same results! Maybe globalization wasn't such a good idea afterall??? What do ya think?....and, Oh, by the way the DOW is down 170....and I think it is still sinking.....

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:07 - ID#288186)
kapex; Yep. And thanks for your input. I guess the way a person intreprets
the waves can vary and be revised as time goes on. When you go back
to examine a wave count it could easily take on a new "look", several
days later...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:09 - ID#220325)
Gold Library url

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:14 - ID#288260)
CNN Headline news $ and cents
Notice they are no longer live at :15 and :45. Now the regular anchor gives the numbers, and they don't re-cap the numbers at the end of the report.
Now is this so Myron won't ad-lib or is it a Time Warner cost saving?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:17 - ID#317193)
Gollum...any chance of a "V" bottom in gold...
to say $285 or so? Maybe just a little rise to climb in the first part of the trip. Nibbling is OK but I would like to have a full meal before we really leave the station. TIA: )


Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:18 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene
SPX bottomed at 1160.00.
Now on its way up. Presently at 1162.40.

Plop plop...fizz. Oh what a relief..

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:22 - ID#288186)
kapex; If you can, please keep us(me) up-to-date as the wave count unfolds
on the S&P. Thanks, Fox-man

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:22 - ID#270253)
History Lesson
Some work from Joseph Barthel of Fahnestock as printed in Investors Intelligence.

"History has shown that following a second consecutive cut in the discount rate, the stock market on average has gained 11% over 3 months, 16% over 6 months, 21% over 9 months and 30% over 12 months.

The recent second cut in the discount rate could eventually start a 1-2 year rally in the CRB. That is exactly what happened following the consecutive discount rate cuts in 1986 and 1992-93."

"The XAU has received a monthly MACD buy signal. This signal suggests that gold stocks should move higher"

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:29 - ID#35571)
Anything is possible, I guess, but I don't think so. Gold is holding well despite the rise in the bond market and the falling silver market.

You might get a V in silver, but gold is going to be a shallow U I think.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:35 - ID#339274)
volume picking up

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:36 - ID#350179)
Overlay the two & compare since 12:30 on 1 minute...

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:42 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: SPX
Now at 1164.56. A gain of 4.56 points in less than
45 minutes. Probably we wind up with a Dow up today.

Witness the miracle of buying the S & P futures
with a blank check.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:42 - ID#410196)
General's success

Congratulations on restoring power within five hours, General. Now be a good lad, would you, and hustle right back to that same church and see what you can do about the p.o.g? Between you in church and Gollum in the basement, we should be able to at least get above $300.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:50 - ID#372182)
@mooney* @Jim Bob
Sorry about last night's long post. Bill's letter is in the public domain so very little harm done. Actually as Cherokkee says it well. Bill's reputation can only get better.

I agree in that I do not like long posts. That was the longest I've ever submitted. My recommendation to Bart was to limit posts to about 50 lines. Anything over should get approval from him.

But then, how do you stop a HANDLE from post several times...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:51 - ID#339274)
Sold and short NEM 19 5/8,things are getting ugly

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:54 - ID#372182)
@all READ THIS "last time to buy gold cheap" then look for Thom Calandra and click "more" for the whole article.

Pleasant reading. Of course I could copy the whole article here to have more impact. A judgement call on my part.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 02 1998 13:59 - ID#372182)
Goofed again with the CBS LINK
try this... OR


look for Thom Calandra's article.

Hope this works, if not, I'll clips bits and pieces of it...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:02 - ID#350179)
T Rex

Is that it?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:07 - ID#350179)
Now looking for next support level...

Charleston Gold Bug
(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:07 - ID#344389)
XAU next support level 69.23

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:10 - ID#411259)
..... All Please Read .....

Apparently there has been some consternation by readers of this site who click on the Monex banner.

The banner proudly proclaimed, "Silver Below Spot". This was in reference to 1965 - 1970 Kennedy 40% half dollars, which we were selling at one penny below spot based on their silver content. This is no more. Add clad coins to the list of silver coins which have become unavailable. The Royal Canadian Mint has informed us that there will be no more Silver Maple Leafs available until January 1st, 1999. I now am hearing rumblings of a tightness in Silver American Eagles as the US mint is deluged with orders for silver coins.

The Silver Below Spot banner has been pulled, but should be replaced next week with the following:

Silver & Gold Below Spot

Beginning next week, we will offer silver bullion at 1 cent below spot and gold bullion at $1 below spot.

This is NOT an official announcement and is NOT to be construed as an offer to sell; I am but a lowly ( but according to oris, superb ) broker and I do not make these decisions. Only when my company makes the announcement will it be official. Since numerous lurkers have followed our Kitco banner to the Monex site, only to be disappointed when they are told the coins are not available anywhere, I wanted to make it known that we are putting together the best offer I have ever seen in this marketplace.

I can say no more in public until an announcement from my company. If anyone would like further details in private, feel free to e-mail me at and I will answer any questions you may have.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:12 - ID#45173)
Mike Stewart
I see the historical coincidence between rate drops and stock market gains but not the causality.

Did the rate drops spur economic growth and thus earnings increases and thus stock market gains? If so, do you see that happening now?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:14 - ID#187109)
NiCk@nite in Cansofbeero
this to which you refer........."antipodean banter and badinage" that we merkan folks are too 'dull''.......'obtuse' quite rubbish.

You and AUpro can imagine all you want the antipode wit flying razor-like over northmarkas 'eads but is is all your


We get it all.

We ignore most all of it.

That is all.

I still dig you though ;- )

Carry on soldier. seek out wit and wisdom always


Irvine fella - that 'wedgie' you saw looked more like a 'trend' to me ( wink thingy ) .........silver-the-dog........right next to his good buddy gold-the-dog-faced-boy...............walking down a hill........gaining speed....................howling at each other....................running into trees along the way............... ( BONK! ) ............ ( UGH ) ..................uh huh.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:18 - ID#187109)
*ANYONE* .... Bart.......RJ........
Can anyone tell me how many mounties have been melted down. And how many remain to be sold. etc.etc.etc.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:23 - ID#280215)
FOXMAN: Re: Elliott Count
One big rule to NOT do when interpreting the EWaves, is to put your own bias of the market into the waves and make them fit that bias. For example, if you are a bear, you fit the waves to make the bear case. Vice versa for the bull. EWave critics always say that it's useless to look at what the waves did. I want to know where they are going from here!

Actually, looking at the waves in hindsight is pretty valuable. You can see how the waves have developed and see if they did or did not match your bias. Take the Dow for instance. From the July high to the August low, there were many interpretations of the waves. Most were very bearish indicating possible extensions down etc.. What actually happened? We got possibly two 5-wave down sequences from July to August. To me it looked more like abc X abc. However, if you were confused like I was, I decided to look at a longer term weekly or monthly chart. What it showed was that the path down from July to August was an ABC on the weekly chart. Then from August to a few days ago, we had a series of 5 waves or possibly a tripple zig-zag abcXabcXabc up to the new high. Confused like I was? Well, as I always do when I am confused about the daily count, I go to a weekly/monthly chart and you'll see that this rise was another ABC with a top a little higher than the July top.

This is a significant find even in hindsight if you follow or try to follow EWave. The ABC correction as you know is labeled as a 3 because it was only 3 waves. A five wave sequence is a 5. I mention this because EWave tells us that a correction basically can take the form 3-3-5 ( flat or expanded flat ) , 5-3-5 ( zig-zag ) , or 3-3-3-3-3 ( triangle ) . A bear market can never start with a 3. To me, this says that since the July top, we have had an intermediate ABC down ( A ) , then an intermediate ABC up ( B ) . My conclusion is that we will either have a 12345 ( C ) downward or another ABC ( C ) downward that is part of a large triangle with ( D ) and ( E ) to follow.

The important point with this is that if you truly follow EWave and don't distort it, the only conclusion is that ultimately we will get a significant low, but it is not the start of major mult-year bear market, and will not be Armageddon ( sp ) . If it's a flat ( C ) wave to follow that gets us to a little lower that the August low of wave ( A ) or whether it is an expanded flat which takes us much lower than that ( A ) wave low and can still have a 1000 point crash within it, or whether it is part of a huge triangle, the longer intermediate term direction is still up. Once this ( C ) or ( C ) ( D ) and ( E ) is over, the 10000 - 15000+ folks should have their day. Of course this is my opinion of the scenario. But it is based on the waves as they have developed, as well as keeping with the strict EWave rules, and not diverting and bending to market bias.

I have no care on which direction it goes. As always, I am positioned for both ways so any bias can be removed. By the way, if you read the Elliott books, this latest rise from August to the new high was a classic ( B ) wave in that everyone was jumping in as if all problems were gone, but it was a technically weak rally as Kapex has pointed out, and as we are seeing now. Again, just my LONG-ASS opinion, but I hope this gives you another prospective.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:26 - ID#350194)
@Tantalus @ Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 13:50
"Tantalus Rex ( @mooney* @Jim Bob ) ID#372182:
Sorry about last night's long post. Bill's letter is in the public domain so very little harm done. Actually as Cherokkee says it well. Bill's reputation can only get better. I agree in that I do not like long posts...."

"Don't worry about it - You're one of the Good Guys! Just have to keep the troops in line as the General seems to be semi-retired. ;-0 Carry on Soldier" - Mooney

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:32 - ID#275170)
Straddler: Keep one thing in mind! The Dow is the only index that did not
go down in 5 Waves!!!!!! I would not IMHO, use that as the index to exemolfy the market as a whole, but rather the one that is faking everyone out!!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:32 - ID#213265)
@the scene
Yupper! Won't matter how cheap the metals are if there are no coins for sale! All else is just paper or something hard to trade.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:33 - ID#350194)
Of Course You ARE Not Serious! No One Melts recognized .9999 Fine coins! AAR - The answer that may be stated to the sarcastic question ( with TOTALLY straight face ) is that the coins may be turned in ( at certain approved locations - banks ) for $310 US until the expiry date. AFTER that date they will trade as any other pure 1 ounze gold coin does - valued to market price of gold plus market based premium.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:35 - ID#389387)
XAU - in declining wedgie

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:37 - ID#389387)
most commodities showing deflationary tendencies

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:38 - ID#280215)
kapex - Re 5 waves.
The broader S&P500 did NOT go down in 5 waves either. The Sept high of 106611 went past/overlapped the early august low 0f 1057ish. Therefore, that was not wave 4, but part of the start of the ( B ) wave up

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:38 - ID#187109)
I was serious. I may be ignorant on this one but I thought I saw Bart telling us that the coins 'turned' in were melted down. I thought it was crazy too. Can someone in the know make a comment here......not that I don't believe you moondog ;- ) ...

It would surely make all the 'above ground' ( smile ) Mounties much more valuable......EH? await the answer


(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:40 - ID#389387)
Since Elliot wave theory is based on the behavioral aspects of emotion, and since computer program trading has been implemented, does this invalidate the presumptive patterns due to changes in the "algorithm"?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:43 - ID#339274)
covered 19 5/8 and out for today.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:43 - ID#334219)
" As always, I am positioned for both ways so any bias can be removed."

Can you give me an exemple of a current straddle you have on and explain the profit potential on it? Thanks.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:56 - ID#37463)
Just another day
This is just another great day to be a precious metal's maggot. Steady as she goes. Buy now and avoid the rush.

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 02 1998 14:58 - ID#270253)
The specifics of how and why stock prices rise during times of interest rate cuts and the effects on company earnings is too fundamental a question for a simple technician like me. I just know that the evidence supports the theory going back to Jan 2, 1958. Check out Martin Zweig's "Winning on Wall Street" under the Chapter "Don't Fight the Fed". I don't and it has worked for me.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:06 - ID#153102)
@RJ @aurator
You are far too clever for me, but your last post in my direction was pure Evacuation Portal Offal. You have never performed an experiment to determine what wavelengths of radiation are and are not visible in a vacuum. And you cite no source who has claimed to have done such an experiment. Since you previously have posted you were looking at stars through a vacuum from Marina Del Ray, I must suspect that you haven't bothered yourself to find out what the word means, scientifically speaking, but like Oris associate it exclusively with Hoover or Dirt Devil or the like. I'm not debating. Take or leave the evidence as you please.

@aurator Has the sun also the same "subtending angle" ? Has it come to you notice that insignificant variations in the atmosphere create the optical illusion commonly known as a rainbow ?

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:10 - ID#389387)
not going there
% )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:11 - ID#333127)
Very tight range today

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:16 - ID#350194)
Hi Tort! I see that you read my early morning post and that it is still in your subconscious ( vultures and maggots? ) .
Speaking of which:
The lawyer says to his elderly client, "Sir, your will was quite a bit more complex to draw up than an average one and thus I had to increase the fee to $4,500. Slightly hard of hearing the old gentleman thought he had said $500. and so wrote a check and dropped it at the secretaries desk while the lawyer took a quick phone call. He turned and waved and headed out to his car. The lawyer hastily completed his call checked out the cheque and seeing the man's error raced out to the parking lot just in time to see the man pull away in his red, 1955 T-Bird. The lawyer looked down at the check and then back at the departing T-Bird and thought, philosophically,

What the Heck!,
for an
hour's work isn't too bad."

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:18 - ID#258273)
Don't fight the Fed?
Unless of course you lived in the 30's or were Japanese in the 90's.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:23 - ID#350194)
The vacuum RJ was referring to was the state of his mind at the time. Get It? A lot of us get into that state at the end of a long day and I know RJ has many long days. Right RJ?
Also you state "...insignificant variations in the atmosphere..."
Couldn't be ALL THAT insignificant if it produces such a wondrous effect now could it? AND BTW - What the heck do you mean Illusion? You mean that that pot of Gold that my Great-Great Grandfather found over in Ireland was also an illusion? No Way!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:24 - ID#255226)
Nice explantion of the E waves. You've got a good handle on what's really going on here.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:26 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: SPX
Now settiing at 1170.30. Just 2 hours, or so, ago
it was at 1160.00. A gain of 10.30 points in such
a short length of time.

All those who shorted the futures this AM are being
taken care of nicely by the Feds. Just pay em off
with tax payers money, and keep the DOW above 9000.

Chicken man
(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:28 - ID#341297)
Anybody--- got any ideas about the yen?...could this be the dirivative market that Soros and AG are worried about? thinking is there are "naked" calls out there...could be a real squeeze coming...options are starting to be exercised....could get bloody IMHO

Back to cabinet building...later..

Just a thought...Chicken man..

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:29 - ID#350194)
Silver Close
OK Kiddies! That Silver Close reminds me very much of many similar closes in the past, in the majority of such cases Silver takes another big hit the next day. Sometime tommorrow may be an excellent ( PRIMO ) entry point!

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:35 - ID#344225)
@ The scene RE SPX
SPX futures are running fast now.

1174.08 and moviing on.. The Industrials
will be in the GREEN very soon.

Mission accomplished. Once again RR to the

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:39 - ID#254321)
Good point! The FED does not call all the shots. The people do.
Big Fisherman: I like your comment about the FED.

If you are an investor in the markets, you must know what the FED is doing, or you may get run over.

But if the 'people' do not want to invest in the markets, and would rather buy gold or otherwise protect their assets, the FED is virtually powerless. Until the 'people' restore their confidence in the markets, there is nothing they can do. The old 'pushing on a string bit'. Of course, that is why FDR confiscated the American gold, in a desperate attempt to jumpstart the US economy. I wonder what the Japanese would do if ther government tried the same approach, after so much distrust has been built up over the last 9 years. The reaction might be surprising. Might not be like the Korea situation when all that gold was 'voluntarily' surrendered.

India has been forced by their people to set up gold savings accounts.

My guess is the best approach is to encourage people to invest in secure investments of some kind -- in Japan. Somehow their businesses and Government have to rekindle the trust of the Japanese people.

Perhaps we Americans have something to learn from how the Indians handle their savings ( in gold ) , and how the Japanese resolve their problems. Unfortunately, I am not optimistic.

As the Aesop's fable once indicated, it is much better to encourage a man to take off his coat with the warm sun, rather than try to force it off with the wind.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:41 - ID#280215)
CC RE: Straddle
Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, but my real job does not allow me to get in as much as I used to be able to. My strategy when entering a straddle is getting into a situation where the potential for violent up or down swings exists. Approx 1 week or so ago when Dec S&P500 was approx 1150, I bought a Jan 1215 call and a Jan 1100 Put, costing approx. $3800 each. My tech analysis at the time indicated that we had to potential to go to higher highs, as well as the crowd psych said higher, thus the 1215 call.

However, monthly chart analysis of the S&P500 indicated an ugly situation forming with a large drop looming. Therefore as always, as insurance, I bought an almost equi-distant put in case of a reversal. Right now the options are both about $3400, however, nothing much has happened. I did not exit any positions when the index rose recently because it was not very much. But again, this is a volatility play. If a sharp move occurs in either direction, the put or the call will more than cancel out the cost of the losing option. Just still waiting for that move. Tech analysis says short term top is in place ( wave C to start ) . Potential here for lows down to 950ish or the low of the last major downturn. However, should this take a little longer to develop and it goes to 1220 -1250, potential is there also. There will be a time however , where time will start running out and I would be forced to exit at a small loss and start a new straddle farther out. This has not occurred yet, and the 950 scenario may be ready to show itself.

Another straddle that I have on is in March Silver. A few weeks when SIH was 500 or so, I bought some March 525 calls and 475 puts at about 8.0 or about $400 each ( $800 total ) . Currently, my 525 call is about 5.0 or about $250, and my 475 put is at 20.0 or $1000 ( $1250 total ) . Could have exited both positions today for about $400-$500 profit per straddle, but I'm going to wait a little longer for more downside action. IN these scenarios, you can get lucky and get a huge move in one direction for a huge profit, or today for example, I could have exited at a modest gain. I bought 3 straddles so I would have exited with approx $1200 profit.

I hope this helps. Sorry if I can't repsond right away.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:46 - ID#254321)
Resumption of current market rally?
All: Any comments about the US dollar or commodities indices? Think the dollar will recover with the markets? Perhaps not. The failure of the US dollar to recover along with the equities markets might be a clue that all is not well, and another liquidity crisis may be heading our way. The US dollar was down about 0.8% today at one time.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:46 - ID#350179)
In case you missed it: HAL 9000
Date: Tue Dec 01 1998 23:56

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:53 - ID#288186)
APH; Hello! Say...if silver prices decide to plummet in the after-hours market(Globex),
is it possible to get a good trade on the March Silver contract?
I assume the Dec contract is still the active contract and that it
might be hard to get a fill in the March contract on Globex. What
are your thoughts? TIA, Fox-man

(Wed Dec 02 1998 15:56 - ID#45173)
Mike Stewart
My point is that the market dynamic that created the relationship between Fed easing and a rising stock market that has existed since 1958 may have changed. I don't know that it has, but economists are baffled by the current economy, so maybe something fundamental has changed. Or maybe there's no relationship at all between rates and the market. Without knowing the causality, you have to attribute the relationship to chance. You can flip a coin six times in a row and get heads every time. Doesn't that mean the chances of getting a heads again are any better the seventh time.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:01 - ID#254321)
HAL 9000, Light and Vacuum
MM: Thanks, I got it. Missed the reference when I was watching 2010.

By the way, where is HAL 9000?

I miss his deadpan humor. He never did explain adequately why he tried to space Dave ( I mean the Kitco HAL 9000, not the video one ) .

mozel: I think I know what you were reffering to with light and vacuum. You are right that you cannot see a beam of light without particulate matter. That is why the earth sky is blue and the moon 'sky' is black. No Rayleigh ( sp? ) scattering. The scattering cross section drops off with the 4th power of the ratio of the particle size to the wavelength ( IMHO ) . In fact, a beam of light passing through submicron filtered air should be just as invisible as if it were a vacuum.

But the light is still detectable with a pm tube or CCD, vacuum or no.

No -- I don't need to repeat this experiment. The Hubble space telescope, and all of the telecommunications satellites in space repeat this experiment all the time. Right now, I am probably communicating to you through the hard vacuum of space.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:04 - ID#288186)
COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS...(silver down 1.2million)
COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 2

Gold 831,048 + 11,769 troy ounces
Silver 78,024,843 + 1,206,872 troy ounces
Copper 76,722 + 952 short tons
Maybe this Silver drawdown will propel prices down to the 4.40 target
that has been discussed lately...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:05 - ID#288186)
OOPS. Sorry...I meant :silver totals UP 1.2 million.
: (

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:12 - ID#258273)
The Fed
The has great influence, but the forces that drive any cycle are exogenous. That is driven by outside forces. Otherwise the cycles fade away. The fify year ( approximately ) cycle has been with us for thousands of years. It is driven by the length of the human life span.

We are near the crest. We will know we are dropping down the other side from an economic perspective when "relationships in place since 1958" break. When interest rate cuts no longer support the markets we will know we are there. It will be obvious that the Fed is relatively insignificant compared to the cycles of time. The USA will be the last to know.

Japan knows now.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:21 - ID#254321)
Your namesake is appropriate
BigFisherman: It is easy to forget the cycles of time. I think the generational Kondratiev cycle is prolonged somewhat due to longer life expectancies. Three generations from rags to riches back to rags, according to one of the Chinese sayings. Can't remember the author.

But -- about right. Whatever time it takes for the current generation to completely forget the need to 'save for a rainy day'.

Just wondering -- the Japanese economy crashed long before the US market crash in 1929. Do you know what the time sequence was?

Did you know that there was a major ElNino cycle about that time as well?

Interesting how everything repeats itself -- abeit imperfectly. Eddies in time, with a chaotic twist to make things interesting.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:28 - ID#255226)
Use a price order..

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:36 - ID#255226)
Got a phone call, hit enter by mistake. The night market ( access ) is thin but you should not have a problem getting filled. use a price limit order.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:37 - ID#258273)
Nice to talk to someone else who sees the cycles. Don't know much about the Japanese during the last depression. I will ask. My friends in Japan consider this to be their great depression and look back to the US in the thirties for comparison. Seems odd we have never discussed Japan during the thirties...

I am a biometrician by training. Have been trained to look for patterns in nature. Commercially important patterns for the most part. Mostly in fisheries. Now on the internet. ( I am also frequently seen in the NW with a 15 foot fly rod searching for giant trout. ) Thus the handle.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:38 - ID#255226)
Sorry, Fos should be Fox, bad typing day

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:40 - ID#252391)
Weaker dollar weaker metals....
it wasn't suppose to be this way.

Look at those silver stocks building up - when is delivery time.

Notice the transports taking off dispite weaker DOw. Frontier airlines made new high today....SWC tanks to 34 3/8ths.

Deflation, recession - how does that square with dollar weakness??s

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:44 - ID#45173)
13" trout in waaaay upstate Maine this Fall. Wolly bugger.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:48 - ID#258273)
Sure can smell the rain...
I live in north Seattle. The Boeing news has hit hard. Unfortunatley this is not the end of the news from Boeing. Further cut backs will follow should more orders be cancelled. The trend is not good.

Lots of gloom for the Holidays here. Thanksgiving was anxious enough. Lots of talks about the layoffs. People predicting thier own layoff date. Everyone has freinds and family at Boeing in this area. The behaviors often predicted on this site are beginning to manifest. What happens to all these people when they see no paychecks in the face of a looming economic turndown? Fear. Cold hard fear. I can see it in their eyes and feel it in their hearts.

I remember a western song... something like "I may not see the storm, but I sure can smell the rain..."

Gold Dancer
(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:51 - ID#377196)
December is the month of great cross currents. This is especially
true when there is one market that is very overvalued and another
area ( commodities ) that is very undervalued.

Therefore it is impossible to guage anything from the trading in
December. So often the weak get weaker looking like it is the end of
the world only to have that the best investment over the next 12 months.

The gold thingy is going to take time. More time than I thought it
would. But that is just the way it is. I don't run the markets. But
I don't trust them either. The gold thing could happen as fast as
BAMM happened and then be over in a week. No one knows. So I am just
holding on as there is nothing else to do. My guess is that it will
take all next year for gold to get going. This might be a 10 year
bull like the tech stocks so looking at this thing everyday is not
always fun.

I just need a copy of the Journal, June of 99 would do.

Thanks, GD

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:51 - ID#288186)
APH; Thanks. I'm having a bad "brain" day. I typed drawdown earlier when I meant
"increase in Silver stocks". I also typed Globex on post to you when I meant "access". I think I'll go have my Scottle of Botch now...
See ya, Fox-man

Mike Stewart
(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:51 - ID#270253)
I understand that you always run the risk that "it may be different this time". I heard that said in the 1990 S&L crisis when the Fed was supposed to be pushing on a string. They were not. I do agree that it is possible for things to be different now, just highly unlikely. I trade with the odds ( and the Fed ) , not against them. ( my other models gave a buy signal in October as well ) . I am smart enough to know "what" is going on, but could only guess as to why.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:53 - ID#201145)
Selby (Judgement) sorry off topic
you wrote:

I don't have much of an opinion but just what could the US ( I assume ) have done to avoid a judgement re: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and their use?

What could we have done? I don't know about capitalism, or population control or anything like that, but we could have ended famine. We had the capacity to end hunger throughout the world. No starvation, no malnutrition. Never before in the history of humanity was this ever possible, but it was possible with the US. We could have done it. As it is, we did not do this, we did other things, and as a result of those other things nearly every nation hates us. There is the UK, Canada and Austrailia, they probably don't HATE us, but perhaps only because our cultures are so alike.

Suppose we had ended hunger. Who would hate us. Who would attack us. We could have and should have been the brightest, the greatest amoung nations. We could have led to world to freedom, prosperity and harmony. Instead we were mearly the most powerful. The biggest bully. And that is coming to an end, either thorugh world economic collapse, the launch of the Euro/Asian Yen or through the rest of the world just getting sick to death of hearing us bellow.

For the billions we gave to all the nations not to do this or so that they must do that, we looked like nothing more than a busybody. We generated no goodwill, no loyalty, no friendship. We had a chance, and we blew it bad.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:57 - ID#280215)
APH: Silver scenario
Thanks for your compliment. By the way, I don't know if you saw my post today about Monthly silver, but have you looked at Monthly silver lately. The fact that Monthly indicators are pointing down so hard and that the weekly indicators like stochastics and MACD have topped and crossed downward have me really wondering about silver. Though daily indicators are getting oversold, the monthly and weekly are giving really strong bearish signals.

My question to you is do you think 4.40 will be the stop. Unless something special happens, it looks like it could go way lower. What do you think. Thanks in advance!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:57 - ID#258273)
Love those brookies.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 16:59 - ID#254321)
Envy your hobby -- I need to do more fishing too
BigFisherman: Thought you'd like to know that sharefin used to be an oceangoing fisherman. Captain of a large trawler, I think. My seagoing skills are limited to about 10 miles west of San Diego -- 37 foot Yawl with me as 'captain' and spouse as 'crew' -- rented only, though. Spent many years sailing on Barnegat bay NJ during my childhood. 17 foot 'Lightnings'. When you could still catch striped bass in the surf. I remember waiting at the Barnegat inlet for the seas to calm -- to enter or leave the bay for the ocean. I did not dare take the 20' outboard runabout through that inlet in high seas, though others did. Almost sank crossing the bay in a dingy when a squall came up. I was about 14, and learning.

One thing about the sea and fishing -- you learn to appreciate cycles -- whatever happens, happens. You cannot force the cycles to meet your needs -- you must wait for them to shift instead. Just like the markets.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:06 - ID#258273)
Mike Stewart
Despite my opinions on the larger trend making a shift, statistically I must agree with you. The effect of the cuts will likely be the same. Still room to reflate for quite some time. But the probability that this will change is increasing and once it changes it may stay that way for quite some time. It is prudent to be wary of such a secular shift.

And the probability of unpredictable discontinuities is increasing even more.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:14 - ID#43349)
If you flip a coin a hundred times and it comes up heads every time, the odds are it will come up heads the next time.

There is obviously something wrong with the coin.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:19 - ID#258273)
Yes the cycles. You can feel them in nature. And if you fight them you die. Quite literally. Your analogy with finance is very astute.

I much prefer the up swings. Great runs of fish. Thriving communities. Then a shift in something fundamental. The downswings experienced by my friends in the fisheries industry have been truely devastating. Much like what Y2K is predicted to do. When you can't afford power the result is the same.

I enjoyed the up swing in financial assets as well. Turned 50 dollars into 500,000. Seriously. Great runs of dollars. Thriving communities. Now a shift in something fundamental...

So I sit patiently here at Kitco and fish for the next big one...

patience, the lunkers swim closer.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:30 - ID#255226)
Straddler - silver
When it comes to futures I don't use mov. avg.,MACD or Soc.. Yes, I've looked at the monthly silver chart. I think silver is solid at 4.40 +/- .10, unless the XAU falls below 65.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:30 - ID#153110)
@Well I Be Damn @JTF @MoonGolf
Yee Haw. Hubble Bubble, MoonWalk Trouble.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:30 - ID#252150)
Mike Srewart@Fed rate cuts.
There is a major difference between recent fed easings & previous ones. Past rate cuts occured when the economy had weakened considerably & we were already in equity bear mkts. We are hardly in a bear mkt right now. Then again, there is doubtless an incredible amount of liquidity still sloshing around.

Stocks are vastly overvalued by any measures & any further cuts will only inflate the bubble. If AG eases any more with the mkts at these levels he will destroy whatever credibility he has left.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:34 - ID#119358)
@downsizings, layoffs, shut-ins, shut-downs,consolidations, set-asides,stockpilings........
yup, this economy is kickin' some arse!...namely, yours and mine. It remains unexplicably irrational to me that U.S. common stocks remain the investment of choice. How, in a general sense, will ANY industry traverse through this severe storm of worldwide massive overproduction capacity and increasingly shrinking demand without considerable financial injury? the answer: they won't. With Boeing and Mobil now falling to their knees, how could Yahoo! be far behind? the answer: they're not. All we can do now is cut our spending and tighten our grip on our gold....we have no choices left. With the collapse of oil, food and steel, we shall now sink into a depression...all of us.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:51 - ID#432130)
Well said. I agree with you : )

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:56 - ID#254321)
Heads all the time
Gollum, EJ: Or -- someone is cheating! What I like is thinking about the odds of heads after 5 tails in a row. Still 50/50, no matter how many times the tails come up. You wouldn't think that's the way it should be, but it is.

Good thing the markets are not totally random like the heads and tails of a coin. Nothing in life is really chaos -- it just seems that way -- we are always on the edge of chaos.

How appropriate -- life always on the edge. The only way we can avoid this is non-life. Not a viable solution.

So -- we must always live at the edge of chaos -- our natural state. If you think of life that way, any threat seems a lot less threatening, and more easily faced. You can go forward to seeing that next day, doomsday or no. In one sense, tomorrow is always doomsday. Always has been. But somehow usually it isn't, and the doomsayer's deadlines almost always expire.

When catastrophe hits, it usually seems sudden and unexpected. Like Oct 97. Or Oct 87, or Oct 1929. Just like you would expect from chaos theory.

No one really knows what will happen, though the better informed abong us can guess. No one human, that is.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 17:58 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.95 The 233 day moving average is 29.19. Last night the ratio was 31.12

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:00 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .237. the 233 day moving average is .249. Last night the ratio was .243

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:09 - ID#45173)
@Mike Stewart and Gollum
The stock market is a coin with both sides heads. You only feel like you're taking a risk when you buy into the stock market, but in fact the Fed will ensure that there is none. The Fed will drop rates and the market will go up. The stock market is heads every time.

Except when it doesn't.

Some say the only time the stock market falls is when the Fed incorrectly expects inflation when in fact the economy is deflating and either mistakenly raises rates or leaves them alone. Thus the recession of 1990, at least that is the popular wisdom. But have there not always been other factors. For example, in 1991 flight captial from Asia, baby-boomer money, and the shift in retirement investment risk from employers to employees via the 401k trick have all pushed the stock market up. Merger mania, Internet stock mania. The policeman on the corner gives you stock tips. The strongest evidence of a market top is when the folks marketing stocks have filled even the tiniest crack of unfilled risk. Anyone who has a dollar to invest in the markets has been tapped. That is what the negative interest rate number means to me, since stock market investments aren't counted as savings. Odd, since employers have encouraged employees to put their retirement savings into the market.

The stock market represents HUGE unhedged risk. Meanwhile, from off in the distance, the largest indeterminable systemic risk in history, Y2K, approaches.

Maybe easing intererst rates will have the same impact on the stock market in these unusual circumstances. But I can't think of a time where it appears more likely that they will not.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:10 - ID#254321)
Mergers -- a sign that the party may be over
Studio R.: When profit margins drop, but companies are flush with cash, mergers are often considered to reduce costs. I know this has happened before a number of times in the US markets. One time at least ( IMHO ) , the cost cutting associated with this allowed the equity party to continue for a time. The unfortunate part of this is the layoffs.

Hard to tell just exactly when the market mania fades, but it is often abrupt. Like when you walk down the beach, and there is a flock of birds sitting on it. It is never possible to tell just how close you need to get to that flock to set it off. But when those birds fly off, they all fly off. I must admit I always enjoy the sight of all those birds flying in a flock, to and fro. Never possible to tell exactly which way they will go, but whatever it is, they all do it. Just like the markets.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:18 - ID#219363)
Market Vortex
You can almost feel it churning all that cash around and around. Cash is burning in some places, little bit of smoke here, warmth there, lots of it flooding into the gates through 401-k's, turning over from treasuries and short bonds to stocks and back, and into stocks again. Currencies are trading at high volumes, some people betting on one, someone else running away from it. Into Japan, out of Japan, into Brazil, out of Brazil. The machine is definitely in high gear, super-charged and pumped high on FED nitro, giving off warmth from the friction of all that money passing from hand to hand, market floor humming like some huge electric turbine that feeds on wealth. The power of this thing, and the volume, is just amazing. Go bull, go. Just when I think the market can't churn any harder, somebody throws some more money into the boiler and the machine does a little shimmy and makes that wood chipper sound, then fires up to higher RPM's, with more heat, and more hum. Money from around the world is feeding this thing, and the vortex just keeps swirling, sucking in cash from the four corners of the globe through electric spark and laser light conduits connected to banks and the royal derivative houses, brokers, and even desktop PC's jacked into the beast through e-trade and the other discount brokers. Burn baby. Screw profits, forget fundamentals, just feed the vortex, submit to the market, get high on it's minion's madness as they flash across the screen praising the beast's glory, dancing around it's icons. Let's throw some more money into the pit and stoke the fires even higher. This bull will never die. It's a hyped up, spun out, glowing, laser fired badass, let's kick it down a gear and feel the torque of this baby as she throttles up for 10K.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:21 - ID#119358)
@JTF.O........regretfully, and respectfully,
I'm saying the "markets" will lay you they have my company.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:21 - ID#354133)
Yee Haw
Mozel - "One test is worth more than a thousand expert opinions..."

Some wise individual posted on Kitco words to the effect that this is an online newsletter. And as with most all newsletters, some of the writers and their written submissions are intended to persuade folks ( in some way shape or form ) to either buy products or services from them or to deal with their particular company.

NEVER buy from someone soliciting for business on a free chat forum.

Buy from Bart. His company is reputable, honest, and pays for this wonderful electronic newsletter! Consider any additional costs ( if, indeed, there ARE any ) as the subscription fee.

Let the lurkers & buyers beware...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:23 - ID#259400)
Market Comments
They tracked him down in a canyon in Arizona and shot him on the spot. He had eluded capture for weeks but the Bulls won out in the end. The Bear is dead, long live the Bulls. There are no more doubters in America. This Bull will rise to heights never even dreamed of. HOWEVER, having said that I would like to play devils advocate here. The P/E on the SnP 500 is now over 30 again exceeding the previous record of July. That means stocks have never been more expensive relative to earnings than in all of history. And, I might add, by a huge margin. The VIX, which is measure of investor sentiment, has never been higher. It last dropped below 20 just before the August market decline. It is below 20 again after going as high as 60 at the market bottom. The lower the number on the VIX the more optimism in the market. It would be hard to find or imagine more optimism. That leaves me as the one, lone, dissenting voice in america. That being the case here are my fearless prognostications.
THE DOW: I SAY THE TOP IS IN. I say we go down from here. I say we go down now and not later. I say we have an orderly retreat from where we are now to 7000 mid February. No crash, no big headlines. This will go down as the stealth correction. By the time the average american realizes it it will be too late. 25%. Yup, that's right 25%. If there are any stock brokers out there you could become the next Elaine Garzarelli to your clients if you adivise your clients to lighten up now. If you recall I predicted this last "Feel Good" rally. I predicted by Thanksgiving all the stock brokers would be standing around drinking Bombay Blue Sapphire Gin Martinis dazzling each other with their collective brilliance while secreting coveting a new Mercedes Roadster with leather. Listen up guys. The party is over. Time to go home and sober up. Time to get back to oatmeal and 2 mile runs in the park. Time to check out the Dodge Dart line at your friendly local Dodge dealer. The only thing I missed on this last rally was the amount of the rally. I had figured no more than 15-20% up from the bottom. Allowing for missing the turn at the top and bottom I figured one could make about 10-12% but that it might not be worth the effort because it was going to be such a short rally. I was wrong. In retrospect I wished I had loaded up on the SnP 500 index funds and taken the ride. Still the next opportunity lies just ahead.
GOLD: The XAU is just a tad below 75. The chances of a drop to 63-65 are now very very small. We have been moving sideways in a pennant formation for weeks now. The lows are a little higher, the highs are a little lower and the range keeps narrowing. Meanwhile the pressure is building. Ok, guys here goes. The XAU will make Break 90 in the next few months. The potential exists for more. We will have a little sideways movement this week yet and the real action will not start till later in December but the XAU has a nice rally coming. I will buy gold shares on anything below 75 on the XAU. I will be adding to my gold mining shares on any and all signs of weakness in the XAU.
BONDS: Beats the hell out of me. I think bonds are going to be affected much more by derivative action than anything else and that is impossible to predict. It is a lead pipe certainty the fed will NOT raise rates. It is a pretty good bet they may cut rates. In fact I think a December rate cut is already built into the bond market. We are now back down to 5.16 on the long bond so that indicates to me it is built in. This next market decline will not be interest rate driven. It will be earnings fears and the still unwinding derivative thing that breaks the camels back. Also watch for bad news from Brazil.
Well, that's about it for this week guys. Go in peace.
Crazy Bill

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:25 - ID#429363)
I'm still short the S&P and it is still going lower. This is NO small pull-back. We will get below 1150.0 at a minimum. The Max - new lows below 920!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:31 - ID#391172)
Studio r Alderbaran
I agree with your pessimistic post, we are entering a depression. I hope before we atre done we will understand WHY?? On the other hand we ahd a good time during the last depression. My Dad would take us to the lakes, we had a good garden, ice-cream cones were a nickel ( double-dip ) , not so tough. That look that Big Fisherman refers to is maybe a precursor to finding new direction not the look of final desperation.

Alderbaran- Your comments concerning the path of American interaction with the world since WW2 are obvious only very few take a view which encompasses the time frame. American policies certainly haven't proceeded from American ideals or common values, so from where? Right now the damm congress is upset by monica-gate, what about the important affairs of state? Maybe it's just as well, the less they do the better.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:31 - ID#119358)
@Envy and Bill2j (notso crazy)............vortex/bear skins.........
yes, uhHuH. salud to YA's!!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:33 - ID#386245)
G'day Envy
It is fantastic to log on and read your 18:18 first thing. Nominated for Kitko Quality Award. What a site!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:40 - ID#43349)
You are assuming an unbiased coin.

If you know nothing about the coin other than the outcome of each toss, the odds of another heads increases as the length of the string of successive heads grows.

Five heads in a row, and the coin still has a substantial probability of being fair.

A hundred heads in a row, and the odds are heavily in favor of the next toss being heads also. Unless someone can prove to your satisfaction the coin is unbiased and the run of a hundred was just a fluke.

Me, I'd bet on heads.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:44 - ID#37463)
Good lawyer joke. I didn't want to bring vultures into this discussion. Professional courtesy you understand. Go gold. Get off your fat rump.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:50 - ID#219363)
Silver Falls on Inventory Worries
Silver futures fell sharply Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid concern about increasing U.S. inventories even before the holiday jewelry-making period comes to an end.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:54 - ID#233199)
Have you heard any particular nes re: Sasol Ltd. ( SASOL ) of late.

It was one of the few good RSA adr.s today..


(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:54 - ID#277224)
Envy Re. 18:18
Excellent post.Very entertaining,shows much insight.
Very much liked the analogies.However the past couple
of days might suggest that the bearings are beginning to
smoke justa tad.Mr. AG may have to break out a fresh can of WD-40.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 18:58 - ID#233199)
What do you make of Mr Greenspans comment of some months ago about the willingness of Central Banks to keep the price of Gold form moving up?

I know there are many ways to read that - and it was a number of months ago, but I would like to hear what you have to say. HOw does it play into your expectations for the price of Gold in the comming year - if at all?


(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:01 - ID#219363)
World Bank Sees Risk of Recession
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The world economy still faces a substantial risk that it could plunge into recession next year rather than experience sluggish growth, the World Bank said Wednesday. Events that could cause a slump, a new report said, include a worsening recession in Japan, a loss of investor confidence that could halt the flow of international capital to developing countries, especially in Latin America, and a 20- to 30-percent plunge in stock markets in wealthy nations. The lending institution made these observations in its annual economic roundup that focuses on the developing countries and their experiences with the economic crises that began in Asia 17 months ago and then spread to Russia and Latin America. In addition to forecasting growth rates for developing countries, the report also deals with why the crisis had such a damaging effect, even in countries with sound economies, and prevention of future shocks by the international community. With the frequency and cost of global crises rising, remedies need to be devised and applied swiftly, said Joseph Stiglitz, the bank's chief economist.
Carmack, NickC, StudioR - thanks guys! *smile*

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:03 - ID#219363)
Department Stores Losing Shoppers
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- There isn't much holiday cheer at the nation's department stores. While the Christmas season is still young, there are already plenty of signs that consumers aren't shopping at department stores the way they used to -- they're turning instead to the better service, prices and selection at discount and clothing stores.

Sears Sales Down 3.6 Percent

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:03 - ID#119358)
we'll-do-well with-or-without.....nickle double dips....sounds good to me, hmmmmmmmm....I sure like black walnut, yessir. salud to YA!!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:05 - ID#219363)
More layoffs
BFGoodrich To Eliminate 775 Jobs

Kellogg To Cut 765 Jobs

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:09 - ID#219363)
Flirting with fresh lows made on Monday, closed -0.44% at 195.96, 52 week range is 195.18 - 238.39. Not looking too good for "stuff" these days.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:13 - ID#219363)
New Home Sales Rise 0.8 Percent
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Low mortgage rates and unemployment are keeping the American home-building industry going at a record pace even as other industries struggle to cope with fallout from world financial problems.
Off to watch a movie.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:27 - ID#386245)
EB ( NiCk@nite in Cansofbeero ) ID#187109:
this to which you refer........."antipodean banter and badinage" that we merkan folks are too 'dull''.......'obtuse' quite rubbish.
You and AUpro can imagine all you want the antipode wit flying razor-like over northmarkas 'eads but is is all your

Tweren't mois, mate. I am however prepared to shelter fellow Antipodeans against incoming northern hemispheric photon torpedos. Flak-Jackets-R-Us.
A brilliant legal mind combined with kindergarden physics can be a dangerous thing, n'est pas??

(Wed Dec 02 1998 19:54 - ID#284255)
John Disney - top 5 no less
Millennium bug threatens to upset South African progress

The Corruption Perceptions Index

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:04 - ID#284255)
Wisconsin alleges Y2K bug in Windows 98

Gates Testimony Goes Thunk
WASHINGTON -- Bill Gates acknowledged
that Microsoft planned to begin "pissing
on" Java wherever possible to erode
support for the technology in a
videotaped deposition played Wednesday
during the software company's antitrust

A testy Gates at first said he didn't know
what a subordinate "specifically means by
'pissing on'" in a May 1997 email he
received, though Gates later
acknowledged the term probably had its
usual meaning.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:25 - ID#430275)
You better not shout, you better not pout, inflation's on its way.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:26 - ID#174103)
The current wave is an attempt to wring profits in a deflationary environment. The equation is 1+1=1.5. The difference ends up on unemployment.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:26 - ID#222107)
Mr. Gunrunner
Agree with you comment regarding Kitco! You can't beat the price and reliability.

Do you have a favorite source for mail-ordering ammunition and gun supplies? Is there a cheap AND reliable source on the net? Someone told me to buy a copy of Shotgun News and look for good prices.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:33 - ID#237260)
Straddler: In response to our comments earlier. ( was at work )
I stated in the last week or so that my predisposition is to sentiment and psychology of the market, with E-Wave as Corroboration ( sp ) to my anaylsis. With that said, here are a few markets that did complete 5 waves down.
NYSE Composite:: Much broader than the Dow or the S&P.
Russell 2000, again a broader index.
The OEX.
Do not try to apply a hard and fast rule to what has, and is currently unfolding before us, but rather take into account all the variables that might give a clue as to the future direction of the stock prices. The current sentiment that is in place, is as negative for stocks as it probably ever has been since 1929. Also, IMVVHO,..... THIS TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT!!!!................
The fed is trying to prevent global meltdown, not stimulate a weak economy. A savings rate of -.02%, thats right Neagtive! Any money which the fed is pumping into this economy is going to all the wrong places. Internet stocks???? Aren't we already 6 Trillion in debt? Who is going to bail us out? I have been reading numerous posts here over the last months about the fiat currency that is currently backed by what,Alan Greenspan? When our economy turns down, is AG just going to give out free cash to anyone who needs it. Who is going to pay off the public's massive credit card debt and personal debt. Just print more money right! If you stop and think about it for a moment, what type of atmosphere ( euphoria ) do you think would, ( or in 1929, did ) prevail just before things went to crap? One common theme that happens with ALL Bubbles, and this IS a bubble, is that attitude that, " nothing can stop us now".
If we could all go back 30 years and chose just one person to follow in their investment strategy, in hindsight mind you, who would that person be?...............And how much money in cash does he have right now? You all know who I'm talking about, right! wb.
The sentiment indicators are being ignored, and not just the obvious ones but anything that is pointing to Extreme optimism. It's just that we may still be looking at all those things that mattered when a bull market was right in front of us, not after it had reached.................Tulips Anyone!!!!!!
Just remember, the top in 29 wasn't caused by the Fed not easing or Smoot Hawley, it was caused by everyone that could have been in the market WAS in the market. Who was left to buy????
"The great 401 K bubble"

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:33 - ID#294232)
Many laugh at my prediction for a crash before Christmas....
It seems that the economic disasters that are pending are largely being ignored by the U.S. and yet red flags are being raised in every corner of the World. Now the World Bank puts out a report that suggests that the wealthy markets around the world could correct between twenty and thirty percent. Latin America is on the edge and when you look at Mexico floating bonds with a 39.7% yield you have to know trouble is brewing. Then there is Venezuela whose dependence on oil revenues has landed them on their butts trying to decide how to live on $11.00 oil. Brazil have spent the IMF money and what happens when the next eighty billion dollars worth of loans come due on December19/98? Where is the trade deficit really at when you take into account that Boeing have been parking planes in the dessert? Were any of these stored planes reported as delivered? What about the apple growers who have left the apples on the trees as China has decided that they can export apples and concentrate for half the price of U.S. product? Oh yes what about the divergence in the high tech industry where hardware manufacturers are predicting healthy profits while the retailers of the same product are marking down inventory in order to sell it? Could there be an inventory glut at the retail level? Then there is the hedge fund activity swirling around naked calls betwwen the USD and the YEN. Could we have a crash before Christmas?????????????

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:35 - ID#237260)
Straddler: In response to our comments earlier. ( was at work )
I stated in the last week or so that my predisposition is to sentiment and psychology of the market, with E-Wave as Corroboration ( sp ) to my anaylsis. With that said, here are a few markets that did complete 5 waves down.
NYSE Composite:: Much broader than the Dow or the S&P.
Russell 2000, again a broader index.
The OEX.
Do not try to apply a hard and fast rule to what has, and is currently unfolding before us, but rather take into account all the variables that might give a clue as to the future direction of the stock prices. The current sentiment that is in place, is as negative for stocks as it probably ever has been since 1929. Also, IMVVHO,..... THIS TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT!!!!................
The fed is trying to prevent global meltdown, not stimulate a weak economy. A savings rate of -.02%, thats right Neagtive! Any money which the fed is pumping into this economy is going to all the wrong places. Internet stocks???? Aren't we already 6 Trillion in debt? Who is going to bail us out? I have been reading numerous posts here over the last months about the fiat currency that is currently backed by what,Alan Greenspan? When our economy turns down, is AG just going to give out free cash to anyone who needs it. Who is going to pay off the public's massive credit card debt and personal debt. Just print more money right! If you stop and think about it for a moment, what type of atmosphere ( euphoria ) do you think would, ( or in 1929, did ) prevail just before things went to crap? One common theme that happens with ALL Bubbles, and this IS a bubble, is that attitude that, " nothing can stop us now".
If we could all go back 30 years and chose just one person to follow in their investment strategy, in hindsight mind you, who would that person be?...............And how much money in cash does he have right now? You all know who I'm talking about, right! wb.
The sentiment indicators are being ignored, and not just the obvious ones but anything that is pointing to Extreme optimism. It's just that we may still be looking at all those things that mattered when a bull market was right in front of us, not after it had reached.................Tulips Anyone!!!!!! Look at the last times this reached that level!
Just remember, the top in 29 wasn't caused by the Fed not easing or Smoot Hawley, it was caused by everyone that could have been in the market WAS in the market. Who was left to buy????
"The great 401 K bubble"

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:37 - ID#317193)
Brother oris...
Check your e-mail....went gold...


The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:37 - ID#294232)
Japan to send the U.S. a nice big christmas present!
A sleigh full of U.S. treasuries with a return adress to send back the money. Japan will be screaming along with China "Send us the MONEY"

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:38 - ID#187109)
you are right and I apologize......

'Twas that wiley wascal below you..........aurarascaleous............shouldawouldacouldaknown ;- )

'Twas all a jokie harm no foul.........I don't own any tommohawks ( sp ) to fire anyway.

Auratorbrotherdownunder - there ya go again......hmmmm.....I'm beginning to think that we aren't buddies........go golf?

See how easy is it to fool a foolish 'merkan?? Damn yankee....... ( ugh ) .

this......this kitco........many-a-fine-folks-R-youse see 'bout makin more enemies @ fools-R-us

soooooosensitivesometimes :-0

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:39 - ID#411259)
..... Silver Platinum and Gold .....

The selling in silver today was all fresh shorts, with trade buyers coming in at the end, albeit modestly. This does not bode well for silver, as the bears are once again in charge. It remains to be seen whether buyers will support it at 4.60 or just let it go all to hell. The COT on Friday will tell the tale. Congrats to APH on calling the direction of the pennant breakout, although I am not as pessimistic about the downside as he is. That boy is on a roll, yes? Best I could do is offer silly stories about wedgies. Since I grabbed a quick 30 cents on the last run up in silver, and I was going on vacation, and I have been generally ambivalent about silver these last few months, I am currently trading very little silver. I have only three clients who are trading in silver now. They are not happy, but the folks who have no silver are A-OK indeedy.

I would not buy silver here, but would wait for the dust to settle. APH's most dire predictions could be just around the corner. Nor would I short the stuff - not with gold and platinum poised to move higher in the next couple months.

Quite contrary to silver's spec shorts, the drop in gold this week was the result of bored and skittish longs bailing on their positions, and NOT and fresh spec selling that I have been able to see. This still puts gold as the strongest of the metals right now. We will know by Friday if gold can hoist the very petards of silver and platinum, or if the whites will drag gold further down. I am still looking to 285 to start covering my remaining shorts.

Platinum looks like it wants to bump the bottom again, and the charts say it must be so. I am a buyer anywhere under $345 and will do scale down buying if the price drops lower. Platinum has become almost idiot-proof. I posted a chart a couple weeks ago with a line at 340 and another line at 329. Anybody who has bought within this range in the past 13 years, has seen the price rise to $400 and, in many cases, well beyond, within a period of 1 to 6 months.

There is still an enormous amount of shorts hanging over the platinum market. These will have to be covered, or rolled over, by the time deliveries must be accepted on the January contract. This means 328, or the last week of December to the second week in January. The rest of the world has the same charts as me, and I cannot imagine anybody holding onto their shorts into record lows and a looming supply disruption.

News today was that the Russians were selling PGMs, but no word on amounts. My guess is it was modest at best, but the market seems afraid of its own shadow these last few weeks. Remember my posts about market manipulation by Press Release? This has once again been beautifully played by the Russian bastards. ( those other one's, not you, oris ) .

I like it


(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:42 - ID#261322)
The Hatt-Crash before Christmas
I don't laugh at your prediction at all, mind you I figured the party was headed south ages ago. Long Term Credit and the hedge funds should have kicked it in, except the Fed bailed them out, and bought time by lowering rates. The latex on the balloon is getting mighty thin.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 20:56 - ID#411259)
.....Gunny are you still whining? .....

Didn't you read the response to your last smear campaign?
Folks were not happy with your lies and quite contemptuous of your whining.
Seems folks around here take responsibility for their own actions.
I have sent many folks to buy at Kitco, as has been attested to on these very pages.
But not below spot.

Will you kindly take you negativity and tired posts of other people's writings somewhere else? This is a group of responsible and engaged investors, not storytellers hiding in their hovel.

You profess to support Bart, but you harm him with his advertisers.

So. You offer zero original information, tell lies, and harm Bart's site.
Rather than Go Gold, Go Gunny ( as long as it is somewhere else. You are smelling up the place )

Righty O

O Black Powdered One

My post stated specifically that it was not an offer to sell

Have a good life
Careful with those long rounds
They pack a punch


(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:00 - ID#188390)
Comex silver on Globex just hit $4.56 bid. WHO would ever have predicted it would go this low? A gulp & burp to APH.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:01 - ID#237260)
Gee, Here's a bullish chart!..........Not!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:06 - ID#219363)
ITT To Cut Up to 1,200 Jobs
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- ITT Industries Inc. plans a restructuring that could eliminate up to 1,200 jobs, citing a poor overall economic outlook for the coming year.

Gusto Oro
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:08 - ID#430260)
So who's dumping all the silver lately. I'm wondering if Buffet may be out on some of his position and the new hit the market.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:09 - ID#219363)
Union Pacific Resources Cuts Staff
DALLAS ( AP ) -- Union Pacific Resources Group Inc. plans to reduce its headquarters staff by nearly 140 people, because of the worldwide oil glut. Fourteen percent of the staff will be let go from the Fort Worth, Texas-based company. The company will have cut its staff by 20 percent this year, according to spokesman Dan Sullivan.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:10 - ID#294232)
A new bull market always....
does everything possible to leave the station with the fewest amount of passengers aboard... The train is near empty......All Aboard!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:12 - ID#242325)
The Hatt
You do not understand ...THE BOAT IS UNSINKABLE!

PTT is at work pumping down in the belly!!

Those things can`t never happen.

Stay on your chair on the main deck THEY take care!

Why do you worry so much?

I talk with a lot of friends and they all tell me that I am crazy.

Everythings is under....control...

The first pole to go WILL be the STOCK MARKET, then the Batteries....

And the NEXT will be the BANKS...


(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:12 - ID#411259)
..... EB & mozel .....

Last news I had on the Mounties was about six weeks ago.
25,000 minted total. The RCM has melted down over 8,000 of 'em.

Getting scarcer all the time


mozel -

You are starting to sound shrill
Believe what you will
Your reality is all your own
And nobody else is allowed in
We must all wallow in our ignorance
Only to be blessed by your own unsupported "truths"

When you begin to get your information from folks other than those who have never considered Earthshine, all you say that follows is highly suspect.

I truly have no more time to argue your assertions which contradict physical law.

Buy a science book


It is sad that you damage your credibility so. I find a great amount of what you say to be of great value. But methinks you are letting your emotions guide your brain.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:14 - ID#219363)
@Gusto Oro
[...] Analysts say the increase comes as demand from India, the world's largest consuming nation, falls below expectations and as producers increase output. [...]

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:17 - ID#294232)
Oliver/ U.S. banking system is like a dead fish......
Shiney on the outside wrotten on the inside and the smell from the inside is becoming increasingly noticeable.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:17 - ID#252391)
Here's another no so bullish chart

Silver basis March has been down below $4.60 - the S&P Globex is off 600, headed for a take out of yesterday's lows.

How do you spell recession??

Lower metal prices, because industrial production wanes, and LOWER Dollar, because money moves to safer havens.

The FED may have to cut rates again at its next meeting to save Christmas.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:20 - ID#294232)
jims/got bad news for you....
The market has already built in another cut in December! Could be UGLY.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:21 - ID#386245)
jims@How do you spell recession??

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:21 - ID#348129)
Silver still plunging, down another dime, taking Gold hostage..... Looks like the mob will rob the bugs of a happy Xmass.......

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:26 - ID#252391)
To the Hatt
Which market train are you referring to about to leave the station.??

Hardly silver, it's crashing and it goes to $4.40 doesn't mean it'll rally to $8 from there, probably bounce around give off a few false buy signals and go on down again.

I think we are in for a strong whiff of deflationary recession - looks like August 31 all over again going into the end of the year. Nobody wants anything except internet stocks ( and they will be on sale tomorrow ) and bonds which implies the acceptance too of depreciating dollars for foreign holders.

There is no inventory building, no accumulation, just liqudation. IF gold can hold in here and not break much it may indeed be ready for a spring in the new year, assuming Central Bank policy relative to leasing and gold sales changes - which I think is a big if we may all be too quickly assuming.

Lightly long, in case I'm wrong, but it looks down to me in metals.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:28 - ID#252391)
Down 1000 on the Globex S&P

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:31 - ID#252391)
Asian Markets showing read
Two percent drop in HK, Japan and Singapore......

Are the sprring back rallies over........

This is just a pause to refresh..... a 5-10% correction afer such a burst . . . . .nothing to worry about.

The Hatt
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:36 - ID#294232)
jims/each to his own sir....
Watch for your toes as the train leaves the station as it will as usual be well on its way before many will realize its left. I own much junk silver which i will use to buy bread and milk and it will be my gold that will insure that i can continue to support my family.... Since i donot veiw silver as an investment its price in USD terms means nothing as what is the USD really worth? Americans will be in for the shocking truth over the next six months as the USD is dumped by the rest of the world.

small investor
(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:42 - ID#105143)
Pull up your long term charts of the dow and gold.
Go back to 1983. Look at the inverse relationship. Take a look at Newmont minning recently. Note that when the dow retested its lows recently, newmont minning hit short term high. Yes gold may go down for a while, but I see some pretty big block buying in nem and abx while I see alot of little selling by small investors. The dollar is too strong. Look at xon/mobil/boeing. This is similar to 1985. This may be the buy of a lifetime. 180 low-2500 on the upside is still worth holding.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:48 - ID#219363)
Brazil Panel Nixes Austerity Plan
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil ( AP ) -- Brazil's government suffered a major setback in its effort to approve a $24 billion austerity package for 1999 when Congress voted Wednesday against one of its key measures.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:48 - ID#348129)
@They haven't figured out when Gold came into the picture yet ...........

How did the universe really begin? Most astronomers would say that the debate is now over: The universe started with a giant explosion, called the Big Bang. The big-bang theory got its start with the observations by Edwin Hubble that showed the universe to be expanding. If you imagine the history of the universe as a long-running movie, what happens when you show the movie in reverse? All the galaxies would move closer and closer together, until eventually they all get crushed together into one massive yet tiny sphere. It was just this sort of thinking that led to the concept of the Big Bang.

 The Big Bang marks the instant at which the universe began, when space and time came into existence and all the matter in the cosmos started to expand. Amazingly, theorists have deduced the history of the universe dating back to just 10-43 second ( 10 million trillion trillion trillionths of a second ) after the Big Bang. Before this time all four fundamental forces gravity, electromagnetism, and the strong and weak nuclear forces were unified, but physicists have yet to develop a workable theory that can describe these conditions.

 During the first second or so of the universe, protons, neutrons, and electronsthe building blocks of atomsformed when photons collided and converted their energy into mass, and the four forces split into their separate identities. The temperature of the universe also cooled during this time, from about 1032 ( 100 million trillion trillion ) degrees to 10 billion degrees. Approximately three minutes after the Big Bang, when the temperature fell to a cool one billion degrees, protons and neutrons combined to form the nuclei of a few heavier elements, most notably helium.

 The next major step didnt take place until roughly 300,000 years after the Big Bang, when the universe had cooled to a not-quite comfortable 3000 degrees. At this temperature, electrons could combine with atomic nuclei to form neutral atoms. With no free electrons left to scatter photons of light, the universe became transparent to radiation. ( It is this light that we see today as the cosmic background radiation. ) Stars and galaxies began to form about one billion years following the Big Bang, and since then the universe has simply continued to grow larger and cooler, creating conditions conducive to life.

 Three excellent reasons exist for believing in the big-bang theory. First, and most obvious, the universe is expanding. Second, the theory predicts that 25 percent of the total mass of the universe should be the helium that formed during the first few minutes, an amount that agrees with observations. Finally, and most convincing, is the presence of the cosmic background radiation. The big-bang theory predicted this remnant radiation, which now glows at a temperature just 3 degrees above absolute zero, well before radio astronomers chanced upon it.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 21:51 - ID#367411)
Japanese Demand
Tanaka Kikinzoku reported that gold & Pt bar purchases in Japan for November were less than l/3 of the October levels.....

Not a good sign.....hopefully they will return in December??



(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:02 - ID#237260)
S&P down 12.10 , was down 13.80. Did someone sell????

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:04 - ID#284255)
Know Your Customer - nudge, nudge - wink, wink

Bank Administration Institute

These two are eyeopeners:


(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:06 - ID#219363)
DEFLATION decline in the prices of goods and services. Deflation is the reverse of INFLATION; it should not be confused with DISINFLATION, which is a slowing down in the rate of price increases. Generally, the economic effects of deflation are the opposite of those produced by inflation, with two notable exceptions: [1] prices that increase with inflation do not necessarily decrease with deflation- union wage rates, for example; [2] while inflation may or may not stimulate output and employment, marked deflation has always affected both negatively.

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook, Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:08 - ID#270236)
When gold first appeared.
Can I guess? Probably when the first star used up all of its hydrogen
and began producing heavier elements on its way to supernova.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:23 - ID#219363)
DEPRESSION economic condition characterized by falling prices, reduced purchasing power, an excess of supply over demand, rising unemployment, accumulating inventories, deflation, plant contraction, public fear and caution, and a general decrease in economic activity. The Great Depression of the 1930s, centered in the United States and Europe, had worldwide repurcussions.

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook, Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:26 - ID#219363)
GOLDBUG analyst enamored of gold as an investment. Goldbugs usually are worried about possible disasters in the world economy, such as a depression or hyper-inflation, and recommend gold as a HEDGE.

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook, Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:30 - ID#350194)
Straddler - If you are still Lurking tonight - OR if you read this tommorrow - Guess what? Your secret is no longer safe! Stephen 'Sherlock' Mooney has figured out your dark side. You like M+M's don't you? As Ozzie says - I'll see you on the other side!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:37 - ID#153110)
The R sure don't stand for rocketscientist. Read JTF's post on invisible radiation if you haven't. And weep, O incredible one. You've been had, dude. NASAed. UnHuh. Indeedy.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:44 - ID#219363)
PRECIOUS METALS gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. These metals are valued for their intrinsic value, backing world currencies, as well as their industrial applications. Fundamental issues of supply and demand are important factors in their prices, along with political and economic considerations, especially when producing countries are involved. Inflation fears will stimulate gold accumulation and higher prices, as will war and natural disaster, especially in major producing or consuming countries or regions. Precious metals are held by central banks and are considered a storehouse of value. While gold is often singled out, cultural factors assign different levels of significance to the metals. In the Far East, especially Japan, platinum traditionally is held in higher regard than gold, both in terms of physical metal and investment holdings, and for personal accumulation ( e.g., jewelry and coins ) . Gold is favored in the West. In India and the Middle East, silver is highly prized, and the dowries of Indian women are replete with silver jewelry and coins. Investors can buy physical metal in bars, BULLION and NUMISMATIC COINS, and jewelry. There are numerous investment vehicles that do not involve physical delivery: futures and options contracts, mining company stocks, bonds, mutual funds, commodity indices, and commodity funds. The values of these investment vehicles are influenced by metal price volatility, with commodity funds and indices, and futures and options, more sensitive to daily price swings. Many metals analysts and advisors recommend that 5% to 15% of investor portfolios be held in some form of precious metals as a long-term hedge against inflation and political turmoil.

Source: Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook, Fourth Edition ISBN 0-8120-6465-8
And so we end our education for this evening. Thank you Barron's.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:49 - ID#42114)
Envy, a reality.
Guess what's happening in the commodity markets, DEPRESSION! No one wants to admit it, but that is exactly the scenario for a BIG segment of the economy. IMHO, it can't last without a gigantic reprecussion.

Best regards


(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:51 - ID#219363)
Is that true ? Do the asian folks account for a large part of the Platinum sales ? If yes, wonder if that has anything to do with the reports that Platinum coins were selling out. Notice also in the Barron's text that Silver is a big one over in the Middle East and India and note that today's AP wire about Silver prices falling on higher inventories were attributed to decrease demand in India. It's all quite interesting, yes it is.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:52 - ID#376309)
The real fun has begin soon, VERY SOON! SHORT S&P ....LONG GOLD!!!

Go Gold Go! Go Gold Go!!!!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 22:59 - ID#153110)
@This Is Not For Those With High Blood Pressure
THE INCOME TAX What started the present day income tax was
the 1909 Corporation Income tax. Since the Pollack decision in 1894, the
Congress, the criminals, had tried to steal the people's money under
false pretenses. In order to do this they created the Corporation Income
Tax of 1909. Then with the help of the personnel of the Federal Reserve
in 1913 they took the corporation tax act and merged it with a few words
to make it look like all the people had to pay an income tax. How
this was done can be see when reading in its entirety, the 1913 income
tax from the Statutes at Large, March 1913 to March 1915, Vol XXXVIII,
Sixty-Third Congress, Sess. I, Ch. 16, 1913. It starts on page 166 at
section II and ends at page 202. The only reference to what people call
today the "individual income tax," is found in Section II, A. Subdivision
1. This pertains to only the United States and that is Washington D.C.
and its employees. From Subdivision 2 on, it only pertains to
corporations. What they did will be shown in about three paragraphs.
Only the first paragraph is what the criminals ( Congress ) rely upon to
deceive the people of America into thinking they have to pay an income
tax. And so I start. Section II. A. Subdivision 1. That there
shall be levied, assessed, collected and paid annually upon the entire
net income arising or accruing from all sources in the preceding calendar
year to every citizen of the United States, whether residing at home or
abroad, and to every person residing in the United States, though not a
citizen thereof, a tax of 1 percentum, per annum upon such income,
except as hereinafter provided and a like tax shall be assessed, levied,
collected, and paid annually upon the entire net income from all property
owned and of every business, trade, or profession carried on in the
United States by persons residing elsewhere. I discussed the above
in great detail in my book, Which One Are you, published back in 1990.
But for those that have not seen it I will make one comment on the above
phrase "at home." That phrase is found in Webster's 1911 unabridged
dictionary. I use every dictionary for the time period I am
investigating to find out what those words mean for that time period.
You will not find that phrase in modern dictionaries. The phrase "at
home" meant "the seat of government." Now that you have a better
understanding of that phrase it sheds a whole new light on Subdivision 1.
The United States does not mean the whole of the 48 States at that time
but only Washington D.C. and its possessions called "federal States."So
only those people receiving source income from within the United States
( Washington, D.C. and its possessions ) were subject to the tax. Point of
fact is the statement from the IRS that is showing up on more
correspondence that before and this is a quote from an IRS disclosure
officer. "The IRC imposes law upon all citizens and residents of the
United States." From the above subsection are you a citizen or resident
of the seat of government ( "at home" ) ? And if you claim to be then
anywhere you go in the world you are required to pay an income tax based
on this subdivision. This is a blanket statement because there are a
whole other factors to contend with, BUT this is what the IRS and all
government workers and the majority of the people believe. Now
reading Subdivision 2, which starts on page 166, you will see that for
the main, that only those corporations chartered by Congress or private
corporations contracting and working within the "United States" were
subject to the tax. Here is where the 1909 Corporation Tax Act was
incorporated into what everyone believes to be a personal income tax.
Subsection 2. In addition to the income tax provided under this section
( herein referred to as the normal income tax ) there shall be levied,
assessed, and collected upon the net income of every. individual an
additional income tax ( herein referred to as the additional tax ) of 1 per
centum per annum upon the amount by which the total net income exceeds
$20,000 and does not exceed $50,000, and 2 per centum per annum upon the
amount by which the total net income exceeds $50,000 and does not exceed
$75,000, 3 per centum per annum upon the amount by which the total net
income exceeds $75,000 and does not exceed $100,000, 4 per centum per
annum upon the amount by which the total net income exceeds $100,000 and
does not exceed $250,000, 5 per centum per annum upon the amount by which
the total net income exceeds $250,000 and does not exceed $50O,O00, and 6
per centum per annum upon the amount by which the total net income
exceeds $500,000. All the provisions of this section relating to
individuals who are to be chargeable with the normal income tax, so far
as they are applicable and are not inconsistent with this subdivision of
paragraph A, shall apply to the levy, assessment, and collection of the
additional tax imposed under this section. Every person subject to this
additional tax shall, for the purpose of its assessment and collection,
make a personal return of his total net income from all sources,
corporate or otherwise, for the preceding calendar year, trader rules and
regulations to be prescribed by the Commissioner of internal Revenue and
approved by the Secretary of the Treasury. For the purpose of this
additional tax the taxable income of any individual shall embrace the
share to which he would be entitled of the gains and profits, if divided
or distributed, whether divided or distributed or not, of all
corporations, joint-stock companies, or associations however created or
organized, formed or fraudulently availed of for the purpose of
preventing the imposition of such tax through the medium of permitting
such gains and profits to accumulate instead of being divided or
distributed; and the fact that any such corporation, joint-stock com . .
.." Just looking at the dollar figure and remembering that the
average people at that time were making about 5 dollars a week or less.
There is no way they are talking about even the above average man on the
street. Only corporations were making this amount of money. I remember
when my mother, working in 1936, was making 9 dollars a week working for
Westinghouse. Now in G. ( a ) on page 172, it becomes more clear that the
income tax is corporate as shown below. G. ( a ) That the normal tax
hereinbefore imposed upon individuals likewise shall be levied, assessed,
and paid annually upon the entire net income arising or accruing from all
sources during the preceding calendar year to every corporation,
joint-stock company or association, and every insurance company,
organized in the United States, no matter how created or organized, not
including partnerships; but if organized, authorized, or existing under
the laws of any foreign country, then upon the amount of net income
accruing from business transacted and capital invested within the United
States during such year: Provided however, That nothing in this section
shall apply to labor, agricultural, or horticultural organizations, or to
mutual savings banks not having a capital stock represented by shares, or
to fraternal beneficiary societies, orders, or associations operating
under the lodge system or for the exclusive benefit of the members of a
fraternity itself operating under the lodge system, and providing for the
payment of life, sick, accident, and other benefits to the members of
such societies, orders, or associations and dependents of such members,
nor to domestic building and loan associations, nor to cemetery
companies, organized aria operated exclusively for the mutual benefit of
their members, nor to any corporation or association organized and
operated exclusively for religions, charitable, scientific, or
educational purposes, no part of the net income of which inures to the
benefit of any private stockholder or individual, nor to business
leagues, nor to chambers of commerce or boards of trade, not organized
for profit or no part of the net income of which inures to the benefit of
the private stockholder or individual; nor to any civic league or
organization not organized for profit, but operated exclusively for the
promotion of social welfare: Provided further, That there shall not be
taxed under this section any income derived from any public utility or
from the exercise of any essential governmental function accruing to any
State, Territory, or the District of Columbia, or any political
subdivision of a State, Territory, or the District of Columbia, nor any
income accruing to the government of the Philippine Islands or Porto
Rico, or of any political subdivision of the Philippine Islands or Porto
Rico; Provided, That whenever any State, Territory, or the District of
Columbia or any political subdivision of a State or Territory, has, prior
to the passage of this Act, entered in good faith into a contract with
any person or corporation, the object and purpose of which is to acquire,
construct, operate or maintain a public utility, no tax shall be levied
under the provisions of this Act upon the income derived from the
operation of such public utility, so far as the payment thereof will
impose a loss or burden upon such State, Territory, or the District of
Columbia, or a political subdivision of a Stateor Territory; but this
provision is not intended to confer upon such person or corporation any
financial gain or exemption or to relieve such person or corporation from
the payment of a tax as provided for in this section upon the part or
portion of the said income to which such person or corporation shall be
entitled under such contract." Now the meat of the law comes into
being at page 202, the last page. Who has the time to read 37 pages? How
many of you have read all 37 pages of the Income tax statutes at large of
1913? Those of you who started and read thru maybe three pages were
satisfied. Well government depends on people not reading a lot so they
bury the good portions where you least to expect it. The following tells
to whom the tax applies and it become evident when reading it that YOU,
average man on the street, were not targeted for paying a tax on your
contracted pay unless it came from a source within the United States,
were a government employee or claim to be a citizen of the United States
by registering to vote for the corporate officers, residing at a place
called "at home" or in one of its possessions, became involved in one of
its corporations wherein the United States paid your wages. Read this
page 202 very carefully as I will capitalize those words that apply to
the whole income tax act of 1913 and you will see it is nothing more than
a corporation excise tax which the IRS cannot deny." ( S. ) duty, section
thirty-nine, authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to borrow on the
credit of the United States to defray expenditures on account of the
Panama Canal, section forty, authorizing the Secretary of the Treasury to
borrow to meet public expenditures: Provided further, THAT ALL EXCISE
said tax shall be computed upon one-sixth of the entire net income of
said corporations, joint stock companies or associations, and insurance
companies, for said year, said net income to be ascertained in accordance
with the provisions of subsection G of section two of this Act: PROVIDED
TIMES AND IN THE MANNER PROVIDED IN THIS ACT; but the repeal of existing
laws or modifications thereof embraced in this, Act shall not affect any
act done, or any right accruing or accrued, or any suit or proceeding had
or commenced in any civil case before the said repeal or modification;
but all rights and liabilities under said laws shall continue and may be
enforced in the same manner as if said repeal or modifications had not
been made. Any offenses committed and all penalties or forfeitures or
liabilities recurred prior to the passage of this Act under any statute
embraced in or changed, modified, or repealed by this Act may be
prosecuted or punished in the same manner and with the same effect as if
this Act had not been passed. No Acts of limitation now in force, whether
applicable to civil causes and proceedings or to the prosecution of
offenses or for the recovery of penalties or forfeitures embraced in or
modified, changed, or repealed by this Act shall be affected thereby so
far as they affect any suits, proceedings, or prosecutions, whether civil
or criminal, for causes arising or acts done or committed prior to the
passage of this Act, which may be commenced and prosecuted within the
same time and with the same effect as if this Act had not been passed.
T. If any clause, sentence, paragraph, or part of this Act shall
for ) any reason be adjudged by any court of competent jurisdiction to be
invalid, such judgment shall not affect, impair, or invalidate the
remainder of said Act, but shall be confined in its operation to the
clause, sentence, paragraph, or part thereof directly involved in the
controversy in which such judgement shall have been rendered. U.
That unless otherwise herein specially provided, this Act shall take
effect on the day following its passage.Approved, 9.10 p. m., October 3,
1913." Well I hope this will get you to go to the library and pull
the entire Act and see for yourself that you have been had by the most
corrupt bunch of criminals that Mark Twain said existed as Congress. You
will become so outraged that halfway through the Act you will be ready to
do just about anything to those real criminals. To have even further
high blood pressure read the 1909 Corporation Tax Act and lay it side by
side with the 1913 Act. Even better yet read President Taft's speech
where he is telling Congress that we had better incorporate this 1909 tax
into an income tax, that the Supreme court in the Pollack decision
declared unconstitutional, so all people can pay it and they won't know
it. The Informer

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:01 - ID#432148)
Globex S & P getting worse,now down 1260

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:08 - ID#370218)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:17 - ID#43349)
The silver eagle goes down, the golden phoenix is reborn, and the wind rises
In the fall of 1929 came the well known market crash. It was the first wall. Then came a recovery into the spring of '30.

The DOW did not recover to it's old highs, as we did in November, but the peak was much later.

Then came the second wall and the drop into the depression.

We came back higher, faster, and harder and now begin our descent sooner than in '29.

If we are lucky, it means we not descend so low.

If we are lucky.

Of course in '30 they were not facing the Y2K menace...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:24 - ID#267344)
mozel - a return gift of wisdom
I would like to recommend some music which you may or may not be familiar with - but I think you would like it. Basically, it's Roger Waters. I joined the US military out of school so that I could help kill Saddam with the rest of the fascists. I left the military after a good, thoughtful dose of Pink Floyd, and maybe a little THC. I always recommend starting at the beginning and stopping at the end, like this: Meddle ( not the actual beginning, but the best starting point IMHO ) , Dark Side of the Moon, Wish You Were Here, Animals, the Wall, and the Final Cut ( listening to any "post-Waters" Floyd is simply a waste of time ) . I'm sure you have exposure to those - but the really good stuff comes from Waters after he leaves the group: the Pro's and Cons of Hitch-hiking, Radio K.A.O.S, and Amused to Death. Each album is better than the last. I think that you will find that Waters and mozel share very similar perspectives of the world. Then again, I could be wrong. Waters has a very good understanding of wealth, power, justice, and morality. If you can listen to the stuff without killing yourself, it makes you a better man. I have learned a lot from your posts and this recommendation is all that I can presently offer to you in return. Enjoy, if you have not already!

On another note, why do you waste your time stooping down to the level of blind antagonists? Why do you care if ignorant, self absorbed people think that you are wrong? You know you are right, others know you are right - what is the big deal? Can we drop this whole "light issue," please?


(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:24 - ID#255226)
The hypothetical account idea came about a couple weeks ago when asked "what to do if silver hits 4.40?" Load the boat for a core position and add on as the market goes up. I stated that not only was this kind of trading not for the faint of heart.. but you would also have to be willing to throw 10K out the window .but would have a chance to turn a small account into a big account. Well we are nearing 4.40 and its time to open up a hypothetical 10K account and see what it and the silver market can do. I'll call it the KISS account ( Kitco Imaginary Silver Statement ) . I hope Bart doesn't mine. Starting position 5 contracts NY March comex silver when Dec silver hits 4.40. Stop one contract out at 16, 22, 28, 34 and 40 under the entry price. Let's see what happens.

**** This hypothetical account may or may not reflect any or all of my positions in my own account at any given time. The posting of this account is for entertainment purposes only and could cause substantial monetary loss if followed.

Current Positions
Long Dec SnP from 1155
Short dec Silver from 5.13 rolled forward into March

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:25 - ID#219363)

All kinds of commodities are hitting lows that they haven't seen in years or in some cases decades. You name it, oil, steel, silver, anything you can point to is pretty much tanking. Farmers, manufacturing, steel mills, oil producers, all these industry folks are starting to lay off employees in a big way. Wonder what'll happen to tbe businesses that depend on those industries as clients, and what happens to their employees. It's all fun and games until people start losing their jobs. Low oil prices are great for consumers, but nothing tanks consumer confidence like seeing a neighbor out of work. Next thing you know, it's YOU out on the street. It might be too early to say it's an un-stoppable trend, but it does seem to be speeding up for now. Folks said silver wouldn't go below 6 bucks and there it is. Same people said oil wouldn't ever go below 15 bucks a barrel, and there it is. Who can really say, I guess we'll all just have to watch it together.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:26 - ID#255284)
The harmony of the seers
Yup, never trust those who've never considered Earthshine, and never trust those who've never gathered Moonshine.


(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:32 - ID#304282)

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:33 - ID#304282)
Russia getting worse

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:35 - ID#304282)
Previous two post ensure the double top is in- THE BUBBLE HAS POPPED!
S&P down 1275 after hours

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:37 - ID#257312)
glenn 22:52

More details please. Got 20 $US bet against 20 $A that Gold gets to $325 by Dec 31, 98. Only about 15 trading days left to get there. Has to rise $2 a day. Nooo problem ...and never mind how I ended up betting 20 US$ to 20 Aussie dollars!

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:39 - ID#43349)
The second spike
At the end of September/beginning of October we had the first spike in bond prices as we emerged from the storm into the eye.

Now as we head into the second wall, the one that counts, we see we are also moving into the second bond spike.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:41 - ID#219363)
Where are you taking us Gollum.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:44 - ID#31876)
John Crudele -- Just Picked Up From Fiend's SuperBear Page

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:46 - ID#43349)
Through the second wall, the second spike, and into the valley of the Phoenix.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:52 - ID#288264)
Oleman tid bit
oleman . . Wed, Dec 2, 6:29PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

If you think CRB at 140 aint no big deal, you dont know no history atall. I'll cut right to the heart of the matter. If CRB is 140, there'll be blood in the streets, literally. And lots o corpses hanging from lampposts.

oleman . . Wed, Dec 2, 6:41PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

I wont say anything else about it. But, from the dawn of history onward, when there is deflation, the king is dethroned. gone.................

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:54 - ID#45173)
The IMF leader some world leaders have called "that French Socialist"
is gonna have his hands full keeping his promise, "Brazil will not fall."

Brazil won't, as long as the IMF is still willing to give them $41B after they have welched on every economic reform promise they made to earn the "bail in."


(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:58 - ID#43349)
In the regular economic cycle there are good times and there are slow times.

In the good times unemployment goes down.

As the slow times come there is a lag in unemployment, because employers are aware of the cycle and are reluctant to layoff when they "know" good times will soon return.

If the slowdown persists long enough, however, they have to start cutting.

Going into 1998 we had record low unemployment and hardly any inflation.

So far, by the end of October 31 there have been over half a million layoffs announced, with many more to come.

Soon, especially facing an election year, the fires of inflation will be reawakened.

And so it goes...

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:59 - ID#43349)
away for another night
to await the dawn. Good night.

(Wed Dec 02 1998 23:59 - ID#45173)
Volatility first. Then suddenly the terrible storm.

I'm ready.