Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:02 - ID#22584)
Interesting, looks like Europe is moving away from the US
in other areas as well as monetarily

French alliance is first step to EU super-army

BRITAIN and France will sign a new defence pact today
that could lead to the creation of a European military
superpower capable of launching offensive operations
without relying on America.


"What we want is for Europe to be able to intimidate
someone like Milosevic without having the Americans
along," the sources said. "European nations have a total of
about 700,000 troops but we all use different weapon
systems and we don't train together in the right way."

They said that the British and French Governments were in
agreement that it was time for the European states to take
on more responsibility and to acquire the military assets,
such as strategic lift aircraft, that the Americans had
always provided.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:03 - ID#227238)
Superb commentary.

Had lunch y/d with a business manager for a large group of surgeons. He pretty much regurgitated the common yuppie platitudes. ......Wish I'd had your piece to place in his hand for later purusal. Then again, I like the guy so I think I'll cut it out for him anyway.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:11 - ID#153110)
@Off Topic

John Disney
(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:13 - ID#24135)
to all ..
a long time ago I lived in Istanbul .. when I arrived there
the turkish Lira was 13 to the dollar.
It is now 302,650 to the $ ( November 25th ) .. This took
24 years to eventuate.
I figure thats a compound annual rate of 52 %.
The Turkish rate of inflation is about 75 %. Its short
term interest rate is 80 %.
.. This demonstrates that a good method of forecasting
changes in relative exchange rate is by the ratios of the
various countries' inflation rates. ie ..
( 1 + turkish rate of inflation ) / ( 1 + us rate ) =
( 1.75/1.02 ) = 1.72 .. so lira should be ( 302650 * 1.72 ) =
520,000 next year ... weeeeee.

Nocte Volens
(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:17 - ID#390135)
Great post.

: )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:19 - ID#257312)
SWP1--How Many Mounties Minted?

There were 30,000 Mounties minted. About 8,000 minted Mounties were melted. Leaving 22,000 minted Mounties mostly unmelted.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:30 - ID#411259)
..... The Put is Moot .....

Auric -

The RCM told me:

25,000 Mounties were minted
We bought 22,500 of them
The 8,000 meltdown figure is correct though
But I heard that figure a couple months ago
Could be more melted by now

I see next to zero possibility that they will ever attain any numismatic value

Just never caught on to people's fancy

And the put is moot in a year


(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:34 - ID#20359)
this is priceless...this is news...ah.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.ha.hang em...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:35 - ID#8763)
I have followed this forum for sometime and appreciate the conglomeration of thought. Not once in my career as a metals broker have I seen such a shortage of physical product. On a daily basis now I have to tell prospects and clients NO to certain physical metals products. It's not that the product is unobtainable, just not in quantity for wholesale pricing. When will this true physical shortage equate to a price run. I expect soon.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:38 - ID#259260)
@ RJ.... (psssst, I got a guidance gyro here for 100 AE's, interested???)
Dammit RJ, just when I get myself all worked up into a righteous frenzy about my employer, you make my sides split ROFLOL.

Now I'm anxiously awaiting your promised elaborations on London connection to Comex's expanding silver investory. eat covertly gained Kung Pao Chicken.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:41 - ID#227238)
An interesting comment. What metals do you ordinarily deal with?

Nocte Volens
(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:44 - ID#390135)
Bondsman, MoreGold re Galbraith
I believe the book in question is "The Great Crash 1929"

: )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:44 - ID#411259)
..... D Squared and a B 3 .....

Thanks for the input

This has been discussed at great length by many folks around here for the last several months, but thanks for the nostalgia. Since my supply is the same as yours, perhaps your shortages are the same too, yes? That was a compelling post, though.

I feel compelled


(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:47 - ID#411259)
..... Earl .....

I think he is down the hall
Ask him some questions about the markets
This will be fun

This fellow has posted on this site under other handles before

And now he is back

Ho Hum

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:53 - ID#20359)
If you have the time a good read...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:54 - ID#411259)
..... Bug Man .....

No AEs, no way Demster

Got a line on some 80 year old platinum bars
With pictures of the Czar stamped in them

We deal, no?

Evryting be irie, mon


(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:55 - ID#263119)
Eldorado 22:46
All quite true. But it will get MUCH worse once the stock market tanks.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:55 - ID#227238)
Guess I haven't been paying attention. ..... But, I got the impression that it was a mix of metals including industrial types.

As for markets; what markets? In commodities it seems to be: "No bid, No mas".

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:56 - ID#20359)
Pete, Namaste' gulp and a is one back at ya...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:57 - ID#20359)
if ya have the time...another good read...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 00:57 - ID#411259)
..... D Squared B Cubed .....

Give me a call if you can't find the product

I think I can help you find it

Worth a try, no?

Yeah, mon

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:04 - ID#153110)
Your counsel causes the field to be abandoned to charlatans. Maybe that's not so good after all.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:06 - ID#20359)
A good read if you have PLENTY of time...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:08 - ID#411259)
..... Earl .....

Twas a cleverly worded post - what with the wholesale implication and all.

Clever is good, clever is fun..

I do believe, however, that dealers are having more luck getting scarce product than individual investors; the dealers are far closer to the source.

I wonder if this feller deals with dealers?
I wonder if he sells wholesale?

Now. ask him something about the markets

Yeah, mon

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:09 - ID#81124)
Envy: Re: your equity commentary
What about bonds. ( ones issued by various governmets ) What is their fate? What happens to all of the money that governments have promised bond investors when the governments can't collect taxes because all of the people's wealth vaporized with the equities or they are out of work, etc.? Please write a similar commentary about bonds.

I have a friend who pats himself on the back for exiting the stock market last winter only to put all of his money into various foreign ( to Canada ) bonds. Are they, too, not just a "promise" to pay?


(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:11 - ID#227238)
FWIW. Silver appears to have put in an attractive wide range 'hammer' candlestick for the day. A classic signal for a bounce.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:11 - ID#8763)
Strictly bullion, no numismatics ( American Eagles, Philharmonics, Mounties, Nuggets, Kilo and 10 ounce Gold bars, 1000 and 100 ounce Silver bars, 10 ounce platinum bars, 90% and 40% silver coin bags )

Within the last 3 months we have seen shortages primarily in the Silver Maple Leafs, 1000 ounce Silver bars, Platinum Eagles, Platinum Maple Leafs, Clad Coin Bags. Not long ago the 90% and 40% Silver bags were below spot, as the supply dwindled the premium has sky rocketed to over $1.05 over spot. Now we are temporarily out of the 40% bags and Silver Maple Leafs.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:12 - ID#257312)
The Euro As Leonids

Well, we got about 15 trading days until the Euro enters the scene. Markets are supposed to anticipate events or react to uncertainties. As far as I can tell, there has been no reaction at all. Heard all kinds of thoughts here about the Euro, and most seem to think that it will have a major effect on the US$, Gold, and interest rates. I'm starting to think the markets will be "as before", at least with respect to the Euro.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:17 - ID#373403)
I detest Clinton, but the knee jerk reporting on this one, is grossly the congressional hearings being held on the matter will prove ( and for the most part already HAVE proven )

Funny how those being shown harshly in the light of media scrutiny always claim foul, bias, and misrepresentation. Do you get paid overtime for shilling for your employer here on Kitco?

From :

Loral attorneys also claimed to Chairman
Rohrabacher of the House Space Sub-Committee that
the million dollars Loral CEO Schwartz gave to the
DNC bought no special favors, and that Loral passed
no military technology to China.

The Loral claims are ridiculous. Loral's own letters
of complaint to Ron Brown clearly show both claims
to be false. The claim that no military technology
was exported is disputed by Loral's own 1994
briefing memo given to Ron Brown that states that
satellites such as Globalstar were "commercial
applications of DoD technology."

Another example is when Loral DEFENSE President
Jerald Lindfelt wrote Brown a letter in 1996 where he
expressed his desire to sell advanced Synthetic
Aperture Radar ( SAR ) technology to China. Lindfelt
wrote "We've worked hard trying to resolve these
problems with the Department of State, the
Department of Commerce and the Defense
Technology Security Administration ( DTSA ) , but
someone in these organizations always manages to
block our participation. ... Could you help us by
identifying someone in the Commerce Department
high enough in the organization to help us resolve
these issues and open this marketplace to our

Thus, Loral "Defense" President Lindfelt asked
Brown to over-ride the State Department, the
Defense Department and the Commerce Department
to ship a radar system that experts in all three
agencies had objected to. Only Clinton could do
that, and he took big dollars from Bernard Schwartz.

The claim that Mr. Schwartz received no special
favors is almost laughable. In 1996 Loral requested
that President Clinton hold up his signature on the
Globalstar export waiver so Loral could include an
encrypted satellite telemetry control station for

In 1994 President Clinton arranged for Schwartz to
meet Shen Rong-Jun, Vice Minister of the Chinese
Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for
National Defense ( COSTIND ) . Of course, Shen
Rong-Jun usually goes by his better known title of
Lt. General Shen Rong-Jun of the People's Liberation
Army. COSTIND, according to the GAO, is "an
agency of the Chinese military ( which ) oversees
development of China's weapon systems and is
responsible for identifying and acquiring
telecommunications technology applicable for
military use."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:20 - ID#411259)
..... Shortages Fellow .....

Thank you for a repeat of the information I posted here over the last couple months.

Have you been reading my posts again?

You rascal

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:25 - ID#411259)
..... TheMissingLink .....

Ye now the sins of the employer
Are verily visited on his employees

Is this the new doctrine?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:28 - ID#373403)
More on Loral

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:32 - ID#373403)
Hark RJ, veerily no
I think this Loral/China/Clinton deal is the most foul thing to come from our chief executive. You can forget all the other scandals and this one alone should have him tried for treason. But then along comes LGB who feels the need to defend the indefensible and my blood boils.

I guess I can respect his loyalty to his employer by I have no respect for his treason to the truth.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:36 - ID#20359)
this should get some interesting responses...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 01:46 - ID#411259)
..... TheMissingLink .....

Fair answer

(Fri Dec 04 1998 02:13 - ID#350145)
Clinton is a Jerk - Starr is dangerous
I can't believe how blind many are to the real threat to our freedom - Starr. So many on this site seem to profess a great yearning for freedom and then overlook a Gestapo look alike, like Starr because you like his politics - scary. At least the majority of American people seem to see this charlatan for what he is. Wait until the likes of Starr decide to go after you-or members of your family. Thats what happened in Germany not too long ago. It was Hitler who said "what we need is law and order". You know the rest.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 02:37 - ID#33184)
The Euro
On 1st January 1999, eleven member states of the European Union ( EU ) ie, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain will convert their currencies into a new single currency known as Euro.

The remaining member states of the European Union namely Denmark, Sweden and the UK have indicated that they do not wish to convert their currencies at this stage and Greece has yet to meet the required economic conditions for conversion. This process of conversion will effect any off exchange traded contract and any exchange traded Futures or Options contract which is now denominated in one of the currencies of the eleven participating countries ( Legacy Currencies ) .

During the first phase of conversion, the euro will co-exist with the currencies of the member countries. Legacy Currencies are expected to be phased out by a target date of 1st Janaury 2002. This poster offers some Euro conversion details and assistance.

From close of business December 31st 1998 through January 3rd 1999 ( Conversion Weekend ) , after legacy-to-euro conversion rates are fixed, your Bank/Dealer will evaluate positions and unsettled trades in legecy currencies. Certain positions and trades will be converted from legacy into euro currencies. Your Dealer will effect conversion by its existing internal trade processing systems and in reconciliation with the conversion programmes and systems of their custodian banks. Not with standing the conversion, the Continuity of Contracts provision, further detailed below, shall be deemed to apply to all affected outstanding transactions.

Following conversion details, which reflect my dealer's position ( it should be similar with other Banks/Dealers ) regarding the re-denomination of currencies as of 1st January 1999: Foreign Exchange Transactions: Forward currency transactions involving two legacy currencies ( eg. DEM against FRF ) with value dates beyond 1 January, 1999 will remain in legacy, and, if currently settled net, will continue to be net down per currency. My dealer intends to convert forwards to euro during the first quarter of 1999 based upon bilateral agreement and will be requesting customers to inform them in writing of the date of such desired close-out. They will treat any new currency transaction involving two legacy currencies by pegging both sides to euro ( eg. DEM to euro:euro to FRF ) . OTC currency options will remain in currency per agreement on Trade Date, unless otherwise agreed. Good Until Cancelled/Open Orders: Will lapse on the 1st January 1999 and must be reinstructed in euro. OTC Swaps and Derivative Transactions: Per market conversion, parties shall agree how to treat open transactions. European Currency Unit: The European Currency Unit will cease to exist after 31st December 1998 and will be replaced altogether by the euro. Settlements: All payments and settlements will occur as instructed upon Trade Date, unless otherwise agreed. Special attention will be required by all participants to minimise mismatches post conversion. Continuity of Contracts: The relevant market associations, the European Council and the financial community in general have recommended that the introduction of the euro, or the occurrence or non-occurrence of any other event associated with economic and monetary union in the European Community, shall not have any effect of altering of any term of any agreement. The conversion to euro should not allow the discharging, or excusing of performance under any agreement or any transaction thereunder, nor the giving to any part the unilateral right to alter or terminate any agreement or transaction.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 02:38 - ID#225236)
Loral technology goes to China 1996
GM technology went to Hitler's Germany 1935

Since the beginning of this century, the US was behind every sick madman in the world. US is constantly shopping for the biggest creeps on the block to give them the newest weapons. It isn't much different than releasing violent criminals so the old ladies vote for more police state and so they pay more taxes.

Thanks to Hitler ( made in the USA ) , later Stalin ( alse made in the USA ) and the cold war, the US was able to justify such great things as the income tax, federal gestapos that can murder people at will, etc.

We all have been had.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 02:51 - ID#33184)
The euro - forex trading
"Our understanding is that both the EURO and $/dm, etc will still be quoted. In fact, European currencies in the EURO will exist for 3 more years. I just checked with the IMM and there has been practically no rollover of December DM positions into March EURO. Our guess is that $/dm will trade along the EURO until the latter takes over in volume. So, banks should still quote $/dm. One problem in going cold turkey is that there is no history on the currency, only synthetic closing rates. This may drag out the process awhile until some decent technical analysis can be applied to the EURO."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 03:09 - ID#240155)
mole (Clinton is a Jerk - Starr is dangerous ) and a Poser!
I tell ya what, when Star rolls up to the White House with tanks, burns it down and shoots the people trying to escape the flames. I will consider that perhaps he has gone to far.

Once in my life I woke up to news on the radio that the Congress had been dissolved, and the White House was in flames after being shelled by the military.

And it was true. Can anyone tell me how that could be?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 03:29 - ID#386245)
Which one of you guys/gals...
...bought 250x June '99 Gold $410 options???

(Fri Dec 04 1998 03:48 - ID#386245)
3 weeks ago...
...APH posted a chart. If you had followed the yellow arrow on this chart, you would not be surprised at gold's recent action. Charts DO tell the future ( sometimes ) because they reflect the past in a graphical way. The past does not always repeat in the same way but people's actions do. It is people's actions that make charts.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:01 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Thursday 3rd Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.12---------------4.02-------------3.71-----------------3.43
Gold Lease Rate---1.47---------------1.23-------------1.38-----------------1.57
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.02 ) ------- ( + 0.03 ) ------- ( + 0.07 ) ----------- ( + 0.02 )

Silver Lend Rate----3.70--------------3.30-------------2.55-----------------2.20
Silver Lease Rate---1.89--------------1.95--------------2.59-----------------2.76
( Change ) --------- ( + 0.27 ) -------- ( + 0.02 ) --------- ( + 0.02 ) ------------ ( + 0.04 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.82-------------4.74---------------4.72---------------4.68

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:04 - ID#386245)
BTW(that's 'by the way' newbies)... probably don't want to know where the XAU next touches the bottom line. I'm gonna tell you anyway. @40.

This kind of chart persuaded me to sell 80% of my gold shares--all the majors, a few weeks ago ( just short of 300 ) . Stop bragging Nick!! Ok. To still benefit, in case I was wrong ( perish the thought ) , I bought juniors that would move up the most with a higher POG. Gold call options that don't expire. Unless the company expires. A definite possibility!! Juniors are getting restless. What do they know that we don't??
BTW-- if you had listened to Fred@Vienna, you would have doubled your money in a month. Those Viennese sure as hell know how to waltz!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:19 - ID#386245)
Ugly stochastics


(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:33 - ID#386245)
Why am I so pessimistic??
Danged if I know. Go back and spend half an hour staring at that last chart I posted.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:44 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:46 - ID#432148)
Aldebaran - Ignore Mole
He is just baiting us. He couldn't possibly be so far left he thinks Starr is the problem and Clinton is a saint. Anyway, liked your comment.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:47 - ID#386245)
Candlesticks(be patient)
XAU, oil and $$ all tanking.
Deflation anyone??

(Fri Dec 04 1998 04:53 - ID#386245)
If you want a morning summary...
...with your coffee, there is no better than the one I just posted. No talk--just charts. Be influenced by your eyes and brain and not the comments of others.

Do it every morning. It will be worth heap-big squid to you.
( Then send 10% of profits to Nick@C )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 05:26 - ID#386245)
On th other hand--Kaplan is optomistic
"All EMU members cut their lending rates in preparation for EMU, which is very bullish for gold since interest-bearing accounts offer less competition for the yellow metal, which of course pays no interest. The XAU has recently declined proportionately more than is typical given the modest decline in the gold price itself, establishing an excellent buying opportunity in the shares. Recent trading activity in crude oil is typical of an exhaustion bottom; if oil prices can rally, the entire commodity complex could be set for a sustained upward move that could last for a decade or more. Tomorrow's traders commitments will be useful in gauging intermediate-term direction."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 05:29 - ID#185448)
Good to see ya, mate!
So it was YOU, who let LAF rise the last days! Watched the volumes, man?? I dont have any idea why - but what the ****. I mean that paper usually has a volume of 0. Today more than 800k were traded. Grandfather in law of the directors stepmother obviously sold the farm. That thing looks still alive, despite the retrace this morning.

Just a glimpse of what can happen. Imagine just a small jump up in POG ( which I cant see at the moment ) and then buy a truck to carry your money home.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:07 - ID#43349)
Clickety clack clickety clack
Rolling through the switch yards...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:07 - ID#29048)
Palladium stuff from Wall Street
December 4, 1998

Business and Finance - Europe

Russian Palladium Exports Leap, Forcing Prices Down to '98 Lows


LONDON -- A Russian palladium drought has become a flood. Exports, virtually zero in the summer, now are soaring, say dealers in London, Japan and the U.S. "Russian sales are placing pressure on palladium prices, which are at 1998 lows," explains a dealer at a Japanese trading house. If car makers and other consumers of the metal weren't stocking up ahead of the new year, prices would be even lower, a London dealer says.

"The price is also underpinned by a temporary decline in flows of recycled palladium and platinum," says Ashok Kumar, a director at A-1 specialized Services & Supplies Inc. in Croydon, Pennsylvania. The collapse in steel prices has discouraged merchants from scrapping cars. So there are fewer scrap auto catalytic converters for conversion into metal, he says.

Spot palladium closed in London at $273 an ounce, unchanged on Thursday, but 35% lower than the May peak of $417, say dealers.

Supplies Are Expected to Grow

"The Russians are boosting sales in December because new export quotas come into force in the New Year," says Kamal Naqvi, a precious-metals analyst at Macquarie Bank, an Australian bank. He and several dealers expect that consumer stock-building will end in the next two weeks. The Russians are behind in fulfilling their annual 1998 export quotas, so supplies are likely to exceed demand in the remaining days of this year, dealers say.

Russia, the biggest palladium producer in the world and the second-largest miner of platinum after South Africa, has caused havoc in the markets during the past two years, dealers say. In the first half of both 1997 and 1998, bureaucratic delays caused a delay in both palladium and platinum exports, driving prices higher. When the quotas were agreed in late summer, the country began to supply metal again, but in recent

days, Russia has been selling more than 30,000 ounces of palladium a day, an unusually large amount of metal for the market, dealers say.

Palladium, platinum and rhodium are essential raw materials for auto catalytic converters, which convert noxious fumes from exhaust pipes into clean air. Palladium is also a vital metal in the electronics industry, analysts say. Wary that the Russians will again delay exports in 1999, U.S. and European motor companies and other consumers have been actively

purchasing metal, dealers say.

Consumers Are 'Well-Stocked'

Traders estimate that industrial users hold sufficient stocks to meet production requirements for at least a year. "Once demand tails off, quotes could slip by a further 10% by the end of the year," a London dealer predicts.

"Moreover, since consumers are now well-stocked, the market shouldn't blandly assume that any renewal of Russian export delays will cause a price surge in the first few months of the year," a Japanese dealer says.

A sizable proportion of the estimated 4.6 million ounces of annual Russian palladium supplies comes from a stockpile, according to refiner Johnson Matthey PLC. So in the long term, a consistent shortfall could occur in Russian supplies. But any mine shortfall of both platinum and palladium will eventually be met by a marked increase in production of recycled metal, says Mr. Kumar of A-1. As U.S. and European cars age, the amount of recycled metal, currently about 7% of total supplies, will double and triple in the next two decades, he says.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:09 - ID#386245)
G'day Fred
Thanks again for the tips, mate. Saw the weather a couple of days ago--Vienna 2 degrees,and thought of you. Hope this Euro business warms up the POG. It looks like it's headed for the deep freeze at the moment. When everyone gives up, it'll turn!! Just imagine what these juniors would do in a gold bull !! We'll have the Kitco convention on the Cote d'azur!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:18 - ID#43349)

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:23 - ID#43349)
Saudis looking for a bail out

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:25 - ID#43349)
Derivatives down

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:27 - ID#43349)
wheeling and dealing in the gold sector

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:29 - ID#185448)
2 degrees?? That was the forecast for summer 99. Right at the moment: light snowfalls.
That spxlaf-thing was pure luck. Like betting at the races. When the track is deep, put your money on the horse with the biggest a**. But when it is dry and hard, look out for long legs.
There is in fact a new paradigm at work. Forget about fundamentals, forget about research, charts, whatever. I chose LAF simply because of the fact, as there is a dog named Lafayette in Walt Disneys "Aristocats".

Hope you made some bucks, all you need is LAF...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:50 - ID#411440)
@ Nick @ C: Thanks for the gold charts. Ugly stochastics indeed.
I think I shall hold off on that coin purchase I've been contemplating.

I am surprised at the lack of response in the POG to the proximity of
the EURO launch in just 4 weeks. Add to this the drop in interest
rates in Europe ( soon to be repeated in the US ) and the forward
rates for leased gold are now approaching a critical 2.5% At present
one month lease rates for gold, if the US also drops interest rates,
then that snuffs the gold carry.

If gold still sits there under the above conditions, then I think we
are staring at a deflationary abyss. If as your charts suggest gold
is about to decline, then we are heading into that abyss.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:54 - ID#26793)
Morning dollar news from London

(Fri Dec 04 1998 06:58 - ID#26793)
Slowdown in U.S. manufacturing could spill over into rest of the economy

(Fri Dec 04 1998 07:03 - ID#341189)
Russia starting its last slide?
Ruble at 20.58 this morning.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 07:26 - ID#50148)
You know it's a bad day when....
You're Saudi Arbia and you have to borrow ~$5 Billion to 'make ends meet'.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 07:43 - ID#29048)
Nick Chase - Y2K countdown - a reasonable assessment

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:17 - ID#284255)
Our Children Imitate a President Who Lies

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:20 - ID#317211)
Testing - the time warp
Were there really only 3 posts here from 07:26 till 08:17 ?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:28 - ID#35571)
Clickety clack clickity clack
Moving toward the mainline....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:31 - ID#317211)
@ sharefin - Children imitating the pres. Just a thought
Children, including myself, have always woven many strange yarns

( ie...the dog ate it ) when caught red handed without completed homework.

What is sad is that the US president is behaving like a child

Sadder yet that US citizens would actually believe and forgive him.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:37 - ID#35571)
Silver looking good...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 08:43 - ID#35571)
Economy perking along

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:07 - ID#317193)
Not to fast now...are you sure the switches have been thrown so your going on the right track...perhaps a short detour to $280-5...just for old time sake. TIA


(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:13 - ID#258427)
Whatta start!!
Bonds up..Dollar up...Gold up ( futures anyway ) ..Silver Up...everything's up...'cept oil...PGM's

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:15 - ID#258427)
Snp up too!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:17 - ID#45173)

Retailers ramping up for the Christmas rush.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:22 - ID#369352)
Tantalus - Clinton
What's even worse is that there are two strikes against the Justice for O.J. Simpson and one for Bill Clinton...If he is not FIRED FROM OFFICE, then it says to all US Citizens that lying under oath is not a punishable crime and that you no longer have to tell the truth when in a courtroom...just make up something that sounds like the truth, but fits your needs, and when caught, just say well that wasn't my understanding of the question at the time it was asked or I didn't understand that sex meant "getting my R*cks off"....Thank you Bill Clinton, you are now the role model for all US Citizens!!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:24 - ID#45173)
Six months ago this news would make the stock market drop
RPT-INSTANT VIEW-US stocks seen lifted by payrolls

NEW YORK, Dec 4 ( Reuters ) - Wall Street stocks were expected to open
higher after U.S. November non-farm payrolls rose by 267,000 and the
unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent. Economists polled by Reuters had
expected the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.6 percent and payrolls
to rise by 158,000.
We have gone from 100% fear of inflation to 100% fear of deflation.

The US economy looks the model of perfection. Except for that current account thing. But who cares about a bunch of manufacturing workers and the service industry they support. DOW 10,000 ho!

Seriously, the DOW will likely close back over 9000 today, unless we get some new lower earnings and layoff surprises.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:26 - ID#344389)
Of statistical interest, the XAU has been down
6 of the last 7 days.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:37 - ID#212197)
@mole (Clinton is a Jerk - Starr is dangerous )
I agree with what you are saying. But the comparison to Hitler is historically not adequate.

What amazes me the most about the Clinton-Lewisky affair is the dress with the sperms which allowed for a DNA test.

Why did Monica preserve this evidence? The only explanation I can see is that she acted as an agent. And when she acted as an agent, "poor" Clinton was trapped in a pre-planned set-up. This also indicates that those who pre-planned this trap knew to use "innocent" Monica and knew exactly about Clinton's sexual weaknesses and sexual behaviour.

Usually, such evidence is only used in rape-murder cases. I have never heard of any case where a woman had the hobby to collect sperm infected dresses in her wardrobe. Did you?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 09:48 - ID#411259)
..... Nick & Speed .....

Nick @ C -

Yes the stohs are dire on your gold chart, but an argument could be made for an inverse head and shoulders with a bit more consolidation hereabouts, yes?

Speed -

Excellent WSJ article. Palladium is flowing in the streets. It is amusing that the article cites a 35% drop from historic highs. These highs are more than 60% higher than the metal has ever traded before. Now that the price in "down 35%", I have a very hard time calling it weak, when it is still thrice its historic average price. I posted in some depth months ago the Japanese would be stocking up on palladium.

What I find interesting, is JM prediction of a 1 million ounce palladium shortfall this year. This is 25% of total annual palladium usage in the auto catalyst industry. Platinum is the only metal that will replace the missing palladium.

Remember my posts regarding manipulation by Press Release?

Some of this seems to be surfacing again, yes?


(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:05 - ID#369352)
Stock Market
I love the way that Wall Street shrugs off the Latin America news of yesterday, as if there is no problem at all down there in Latin now we know that there are now only two forces which drive this market...GREED and FEAR...Gollum, please reserve a seat on the train leaving town for me and my wife...preferably first class lined if possible.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:07 - ID#9337)
Always appreciate having someone point out the spin.

The Hatt
(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:19 - ID#381261)
800 pound gorilla!
Has his butt right on top of the gold market.....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:25 - ID#367411)
To RJ: Pd & Pt
I always enjoy your comments....thanks!

Noticed your mention of Pd replacement by you see a move to cover some of the Pd deficit with Pt? Even if Pt is used to cover the Pd deficit, with stricter environmental regulations being implemented around the world ( slowly though? ) , it would seem that we still have a long-term tight supply situation.....yes?

TIA for sharing your thoughts.


Dow Jones Newswires reports that Barry Davison, managing director of Amplats, believes
demand for palladium in the autocatalyst sector will bring the car industry up against price
and supply problems. These problems are likely to revive the auto sector's reliance on
platinum. Any price advantage that existed is already gone, said Mr. Davison in an
interview with Dow Jones Newswires. "If demand ( for palladium ) continues to grow in an
unfettered way ..., in three to four years demand will substantially outstrip new mine
supply," said Mr. Davison. "The situation is untenable in the long term because Russian
stocks are finite." Mr. Davison said that Amplats is calculating 2% annual demand growth
across all sectors in the near-term, although Mr. Davison declined to break the forecast
down into the main sectors. "Platinum use in autocatalysis, net, has been pretty flat in recent
years and in the short term is likely to remain flat because of platinum substitution by
palladium." However, Mr. Davison believes that in the absence of platinum demand
weakness due to a sharp global economic slowdown, "we've always said that after
depletion of the platinum stocks and therefore lower levels of sales from Russia, platinum
prices would consolidate above $400."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:37 - ID#25295)
Hey Cyclist ???

(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:42 - ID#339274)
Cyclist ( Cycles and seasons ) ID#339274:
Gold will be under pressure until DEC 7.stockmarket going to
alltime highs and crude sagging,wonderful world for the USD.

I'm short NEM 18 1/4 this morning,it broke 67 yesterday on
to 63xau ,we have blown all supports.cyclical up tick next 2 week
will be a chance to bail out.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 10:54 - ID#431200)
Rangold Exploration
What is the symbol on the JSE for Rangold Exploration.Thanks

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:05 - ID#389387)
Way to go.
NEM 17 3/8
When ya gonna cover?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:05 - ID#20359)
The intellectuals...what a bunch these social planners...YOUR tax dollars and government a work..

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:08 - ID#20359)
Who watches the watchers?...I wonder...don't you?...well...don't you?...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:12 - ID#339274)
Mental stop 18 with 66.8XAU.projecting 17 to cover or 65.2 xau

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:17 - ID#389387)
Oh and NSA hasn't been doing that for over a half a century?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:18 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist NEM
Do you "watch the tick" real-time or delayed?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:21 - ID#33184)
Trade of the day
Triple hedge stack of dollar vs mark for last eight hours for a profit ( loss? ) of $0.00 !!! 36 degrees heat here in Cape Town.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:22 - ID#20359)
NTEOTWAWKI, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I guess you MISSED my posts on
the NSA and the NZ connection and my distain for their activities as well...I absolutely do not condone ANY secret organization that uses my money to do with as they please...they can all kiss my American ass...they are not above the law...LIKE I SAID..."who watches the watchers."

nuff said...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:29 - ID#389387)
As opposed to blatently p*ssing your money away right before your eyes.
$5000.00 MIL-SPEC hammers, raiding of Social Security fund to cover accounting short fall, etc.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:32 - ID#339274)
Real time

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:35 - ID#389387)
Dow making acsending wedge under 9000
Looks to "break on out to the 'other' side"

Theme Investor
(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:39 - ID#372400)
RJ.......Comes Silver Stocks
Still waiting on your take on the silver stock build and what you're hearing in the trade. Also, do you have any contacts with any insight on this.$p52$>$p52$

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:41 - ID#389387)
I got to hand it to ya. I don't see how you can fly that thing in a universe where the "aerodynamics of gold" are so well hidden. The volatility being present in other trading areas right now. Do you stick with gold stocks for it's "guilt by association"?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:45 - ID#266105)
gold hedging

(Fri Dec 04 1998 11:49 - ID#339274)
Goldstocks have been my friends since 1970,I feel comfortable
with their beat.Internet has given you a level playing field
with the ones in the pit.: )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:02 - ID#35571)
Except the pit doesn't hang up or not let you sign on at a critical moment, but yes, a much leveler playing field.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:04 - ID#339274)
Have two ISPs,cost of business

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:05 - ID#35571)
And of course that is why there has been such a dramatic incresae in the number of day traders. I hardly think anyone is aware of how fast day trading has grown in just the last few months.


(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:07 - ID#339274)
turning point
9:30 we'll see

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:09 - ID#339274)
has been the have to arm yourself with the
appropriate attire to succeed.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:10 - ID#20359)
NTEOTWAWKI, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you wear a pencial sharpener
as a hat or do you have another point?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:10 - ID#35571)
Sometimes it's the broker, not the ISP that causes the problem.

If one is a real gamesman, one can sometimes get a free ride when the brokerage loses track of which orders have been submitted, canceled and filled. Just don't be on the losing end.

silver plate
(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:14 - ID#289468)
I know the "old friend feeling". You must have been there with th old favorites such as Venterspost- Pres Brand - Freestate. Stocks that paid back 100% in dividends per year. Venterspost 2 to 20 what a ride. Hope the old days return.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:26 - ID#33184)
SA rand depreciates by 2.6% today against the dollar
Good news for my Krugerrands!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:27 - ID#254321)
Looks like 'Superman' has fixed the markets yet again
All: My perusal of the gold equities cycles is also that we are stiil on a down turn -- for a time. I am not confident enough to say that we will bottom around Dec 7 -- Cyclist is more experienced than I. But this does seem right to within a week or so. I sold most of my gold stocks about 10 days ago, and am regretting the 10% holding I didn't sell. Gold equities sure do have a nasty tendency to drop faster than virtually any other equity on the US markets.

Anyone know why the Brazil situation has reversed so quickly? Has the IMF capitulated already? Has the IMF promised to bail out Mexico one more time? Is Ecuador no longer in a state of financial emergency?

It does look like the US rally is not over yet. Someday the glowing employment reports will not match the public announcements of layoffs. Probably this report is rigged already. Just wait until the 'premium' - or whatever you want to call it -- of the official vs real employment rate gets really out of kilter, and everyone knows they have been lied to.

I find it hilarious that Corporations are not allowed to publically testify about their earnings reports, even after they have told Wall Street. That sounds like insider trading on a wholesale scale. I guess anything is ok, as long as the markets stay up.

The current market behavior reminds me of the cartoon character who runs off the top of a thirty story building. All is fine until he looks down and sees nothing below him. Then he falls.

Just wait till the American public finally realizes that they are being lied to about the markets ( and other things ) . That will precipitate a very highly nonlinear event. Too bad 'the powers that be' do not realize this. Or perhaps they do, and they are trying to get 'one last bank' before they retire.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:33 - ID#389387)
@tolerant1 - Cost of doing business
Spying costs money. Lots of money. I don't think that your lament of these types of organizations spending your money secretly is particularly valid. If they disclosed the whos & whats & wheres, then they can't do their jobs. If their cover is blown then they aren't doing the job that they should. This circumlocution is relevant if you agree that they should be spying in the first place % )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:38 - ID#339274)
turning point
looks like we want to go down the next hour.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:38 - ID#317193)
Anglogold ADS...AU....under $20...nibble...thanks Gollum.


Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:39 - ID#33184)
"Nation of Shopkeepers"
What if the U.S. is starting to face the same picture as the U.K.-- a slumping manufacturing sector that eventually pulls the service sector down as well?

Personal income growth is sluggish and consumer credit has been growing at less than 5% annually for the last six months. When the consumer stops spending the layoffs will be a lot faster than if a steel mill has to be mothballed or a production line shift cancelled.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:43 - ID#404312)

Quote machine is down

Can't get anything reliable--

Monex spot gold +.50
MRCI futures +.2
Kitco spot -.70

somebody tell me the truth

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:44 - ID#35571)
No problem. One has to go thru the switchyards pretty slow anyway.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:46 - ID#432130)
I would like to make an official announcement...
For the past 2 months I been been telling everyone to avoid Prudent Bear ( BEARX ) because at 6-7 dollars a share, it was a bad risk. Prudent is back to its lows, but there is good news. The market is turning again in favor of the Bear. I dont think BEARX will see that 9 dollar high it saw in the Fall, but I feel that a profit could be made now with a modest investment in the fund.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:46 - ID#412350)
Hillary For President - Oldman
Looks like Oldman's ruminations about Hillary for President have been given some impetus. See Drudge report.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:46 - ID#286230)
silver plate
You didn't mention my favourite --Bracken.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:49 - ID#404312)

Coin Universe gold +.10
Quotewatch +.20
Kitco -.60

Kitco you lose

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:51 - ID#317223)
Bloomberg shows gold up 0.30 at $ 294.00

silver plate
(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:51 - ID#289468)
Didn't mean to neglect your favorite. There were a number of "goodies' then. And when gold goes from 35 to 800, there were hardly any "badies"

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:51 - ID#339274)
Holding up and strengtening.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:52 - ID#317193)
Investing (gambling).....
Who will buy the debt securities of the US next year...Europe, Japan, China....NO.

The US will buy its own debt. Use your Yankee dollars wisely while they hold so much buying power. Cycles...tops go to bottoms and bottoms go to tops.


(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:53 - ID#317223)
.....and abx is up 0.20, always a good barometer,

(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:54 - ID#286230)
silver plate
Its too bad we can't see the next gneration of "goodies". Do you know if Cons Modder is still alive?

silver plate
(Fri Dec 04 1998 12:59 - ID#289468)
Don't know. Have stayed away from most Africans because of the unstable political climate.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:00 - ID#339274)
down we go ,mental stop 66.4 xau

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:02 - ID#404312)
lady bug


don't know why Kitco keeps showing spot a dollar lower than the rest

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:02 - ID#343171)
is there a site that has charts for put/call options for stocks?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:02 - ID#333127)
very tite range again 2day,xpect close about 63

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:03 - ID#350145)
@ALBERICH re impeachment hearings - thesis is undermining a free election
The activity by Starr is dangerous because it is an inquisition. The activity by the republicans is dangerous because it is one of the few attempts in our history to undermine free elections with the might of congress, just because they can. This is a blood sport for the republicans. This activity is very dangerous to our freedom and our democracy. I believe and hope the American public will severely punish the republicans in the next election, just as they did a month ago. They are fooling around with the foundations of our freedom.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:04 - ID#33184)
1in 1000 Americans infected with HIV ?
Reuters reported today that new research shows that "one out of every 1,000 Americans could be walking around infected with HIV without even knowing it, having passed blood tests." A new study in "low-risk" people revealed the shocking news. A new urine test has detected the AIDS virus in people who showed no signs of infection in their blood. The scientists who did the research said that it could explain why people mysteriously die of AIDS without having signs of HIV infection. They also said it could possibly help determine why some people resist infection.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:11 - ID#271215)
Leave off the political messages, it is hogwash. You don't even understand the political process, and many of us disagree with you.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:11 - ID#317223)
rube - xau^xau&d=1d
xau close today 63 you say? I don,t think so !

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:13 - ID#343171)
I started to respond to you but there is nothing to say, you are just
so wrong.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:14 - ID#35571)
Show of hands
How many expect an afternoon gold dump?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:14 - ID#350194)
@APH,EB and ALL those coming to Holiday Luncheon in Toronto
APH - Thanks for explanation of 10k Silver plan - I also am working out details of a similar plan - will send you copt when finalized.
EB - Who would have ever thought they would re-melt a perfectly good coin instead of re-selling it? Bureaucratic imbeciles!
Any and ALL intending to come to the holiday luncheon, It is definitely ON for this coming Sat. Dec. 12th but I need to know firm #'s to reserve seats at restaurant, so if you have expressed interest, but not yet e-mailed me to confirm, please do so ASAP.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:15 - ID#30345)
Wrong. Partisan politics on both sides is the politics of money, influence and this undermines individual freedoms. Vote for the issues not the party.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:15 - ID#33184)
Probable new solar system members
There is an increasing probability that one or more never before reported significant celestial bodies have joined our Solar System in the last one to two years...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:17 - ID#404312)

if there ain't nuthin there then there ain't nuthin to worry about-just like for Bush and Reagan

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:18 - ID#333127)
to lady-bug
Ido think so.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:19 - ID#275170)
Mole: You have watching too much T.V.!
Since when does Bill Clinton commiting perjury in a court of law, ( it doesn't matter WHAT the subject is about, have to do with ANYTHING
Ken Starr is doing. Our President of this great country commited a CRIME!!! Period!!!!!! It doesn't have a damn thing to do with anyone or any thing else!!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:21 - ID#266105)
just say no

This is your brain and this is your brain politicized.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:22 - ID#339274)
Staying short,formation of head and shoulders 5min chart

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:23 - ID#36977)
Catching up.
All: If you haven't real last night's posts, they're worth reading!

JTF, NTEOTWAWKI: Are you aware of Steamtown USA? It's a National Park or something in Scranton, PA. Also there's a RR Museum in Golden, CO and real operating passenger steam trains: Georgetown Loop RR in Georgetown, CO ( originally built to haul Gold/Silver Ore ) and the Durango/Silvertown RR, also in Colorado.

Mole: Your 02:13 -- see

Thanks for your posts @ 04:xx!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:24 - ID#404312)

since it won't cost me anything here goes--gold will soar on the close and all next week when North Korea invades SK

and while I'm at it--Hillary will divorce Bill by March and marry Boris Yeltsin whose wife will have been abducted by aliens. Yeltsin will die leaving Hillary in charge and she will invade Alaska.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:25 - ID#43460)
Kapex, want to see something REALLY scarey?
I realize that Halloween is over, but here is something to curl your hair. It makes $250 gold look pretty good by comparison.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:25 - ID#194311)
Humpty Dumpty
time for some rumpy pumpy.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:26 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist - NEM
Shoulder between 10:45 EST & 13:20 EST ?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:27 - ID#339274)
covered 17 11/16

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:27 - ID#45173)
I'm not so sure no one's gonna buy US Treasuries next year. Y2K will get most folks out of the stock market and into Treasuries. The USA is in better Y2K shape than Asia or Europe. The dollar may be the relatively safe place to be, once again.

Investors might buy some gold, too. But first they have to discover that it exists. Keeping the price around 300/oz via manipulation is the CBs way of making sure no one notices gold. Can't have gold competing with debt and equity for productive uses of capital in the economy.

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:28 - ID#357334)
i have to say
it must be friday and the sillies are out because the posted today are less the the earnings of the internet stocks

come people let's put our great minds together and try to solve some of the world problems

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:29 - ID#30345)
What would you classify as a gold dump symptom? If it is a price reaction, I'd go with a move of less than 50 cents ( down ) is expected. I guess that is a no on my Ignorant part.

On another topic I did like this paper though. It is interesting in light of the euro launch. It may be predictive, even though it is ten years old.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:30 - ID#343171)
hillary for president? gag me with a lenin statue!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:30 - ID#389387)
I would like to take the steam excursion ride out of Steamtown. Maybe it'll be the only thing running in 2000 % )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:33 - ID#339274)
66.8 is a buy signal .it will be building a reverse head and
shoulder formation.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:34 - ID#341226)
@ALL, RJ...What? Manipulation by the Wall Street Journal?????
RJ, it's good to hear that you're becoming increasingly skeptical of the mainstream American media in your old age. Next thing you know, you'll be questioning media announcements of future gold sales or gold inventory reports supplied by the Central Banks?? Then, we'll know you are becoming a true realistic pragmatist aka "a goldbug."

Anyway, keep up the good work...and I promise never to accuse you of "anti-Americanism" ( as others have accused me ) in your attacks against mainstream American media.

Hope Jamaica was fun.


RJ said:

Speed -

Excellent WSJ article. Palladium is flowing in the streets. It is amusing that the article cites a 35% drop from historic highs. These highs are more than 60% higher than the metal has ever traded before. Now that the price in "down 35%", I have a very hard time calling it weak, when it is still thrice its historic average price. I posted in some depth months ago the Japanese would be stocking up on palladium.

What I find interesting, is JM prediction of a 1 million ounce palladium shortfall this year. This is 25% of total annual palladium usage in the auto catalyst industry. Platinum is the only metal that will replace the missing palladium.

Remember my posts regarding manipulation by Press Release?

Some of this seems to be surfacing again, yes?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:34 - ID#404312)

...and Bill will marry Monica and Kathleen and his ratings will soar. Alaska will repel the invasion, declare independence and set up a free republic allowing only gold and silver as money. All the Kitcoites will move there and live happily ever after whe their gold goes to 4 miilion dollars an ounce...

hey it's all just as probable as my other recent gold price predictions

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:35 - ID#280214)
World in chaos yet Gold goes down! Can nothing help? It's been said here before that production is irrelevant to the POG because of the hoards in vaults. Perhaps same for demand. Maybe Gold will be dissed enough that it'll drop to where I can afford it - maybe a quarter a grain or a week's wages for a sole proprietor.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:36 - ID#35571)
Just that gold's been pretty constant in price all day and we so often see a decline starting along about a half hour before close.

I kind of think that THIS time it's going to go UP.

John Disney
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:37 - ID#24135)
by the way ..
to all
In my garage .. I have a really
nasty MOLE TRAP .. just thought
I'd mention it...

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:40 - ID#33184)
The art of talking in code
Is something going to happen on 7 December 1998?

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:43 - ID#33184)
Art of talking in code - link follows (bug in Bart's posting script)

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:45 - ID#339274)
Flying up 1/2,14 3/8

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:46 - ID#317193)
I doubt there is that much money to buy US debt. Try getting out of the stock market with no buyers...if such occurs because of Y2k...

My thought was as Europe, Japan and China sell US debt instuments...which thsy must to hold the new Euro...then what country is left to buy? Seems to me AG and RR have a problem...or is that just us Merkins?

Even if the Euro fails...US debt paper will be sold in the multi-billions. If, and I repeat if, this is accurate, wither goes the almighty US$?

Not pretty.


Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:47 - ID#209265)
Warren Buffett selling silver?!!
Go to Orlin Grabbe's page to read the article. Also, as you scroll down you'll see important articles about the Euro, and the deepening recession in Japan.

- Steve

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:48 - ID#350179)
I'ts getting interesting
All buy parameters but one have been filled.
XAU's in the right spot & direction. I'll be watching very closely -
Looking for an up move in last half hour as well... hoping for a close between 67.25 & 67.75 ( but not holding my breath ) ...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:49 - ID#339274)
Turning point

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:49 - ID#253288)
When gold WAS at $360, NO INFLATION AHEAD!
A year ago, when it fell below $300, DEFLATION AHEAD!
Had stayed low for a whole year now, DFLATION OVER HEAD!

In order to cure DEFLATION, government will raise gold price soon!

This thing had happened 70 years ago: First they confisticate gold, then raised it from $20 to $35.

Gold price will not move up because NO STRONG HAND WILL HOLD IT JUST FOR CONFISTICATION.
For small investers: BUY SOME GOLD and HIDE IT, before TOO LATE!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:50 - ID#30345)
that last fractional reserve article
BTW you will need to bear in mind that we are not progressing from a gold standard to a fractional reserve in the case of the euro. We are progressing from a floating currency to a fractional reserve in that case. That is a deflationary scenario for the euro, that will stimulate an inflationary response from the dollar denominated floating price of gold.

Another thought is: if the Euro should strengthen relative to the dollar and the ratio of their gold reserves to currency reserves is elevated above 15% can the ECB buy more currency to add to reserves and issue more euros while maintaining the 15% criteria. The other possibility is that the euro will progrees to a gold standard by virtue of the decay in value of the reserve currency value. Presto a gold standard, with an orderly transistion.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:52 - ID#391172)
Your take on Clinton is right,he's a jerk, probably dangerous.
The House is attacking the presidency, and that's dangerous too. They are thru I think, H. Hyde dosen't look competent. Good, we've had enough.

Kapex, If I remember correctly Clinton has not been convicted of anything including perjury. According to lawyers I read he didn't commit perjury.

EJ- if the US is better equipped to handle y2k it will make as much difference IMHO as being on the last piece of the boat to sink. We are all in the same boat.

Guy showed up at the local bookstore and gave a talk on y2k. A programmer, looking for a safe place. Says he's going to bring in some more people maybe. Yes, we stand a much better chance in a group. Thinking about the future altho I'm well set up myself, leads me to belive the more people cooperating to survive the better off we are.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:54 - ID#404312)

Seriously now, ( and this seems to work )

since gold rose in the 1:20-1:30 window, it will rise at the close

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:54 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist Turning Point
Deep V NEM @ 10:45. Sideways trading following doesn't look good.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:57 - ID#30345)
@gollum, johan
How are bonds doing? And when is the next auction? When there is a lack of demand for bonds then gold will move significantly in that direction.

Johan- so the governebt is selling all thos AEs just to confiscate them. Well now that is certainly deflationary. hehehehehehe.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:57 - ID#391172)
Gold UP.. Silver UP ..Pt..UP

(Fri Dec 04 1998 13:58 - ID#339274)
NEM 17 3/4

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:01 - ID#339274)
NEM the weak component,but don't be surprised when NEM starting to run.
Still expecting 65 and 63 in that order.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:05 - ID#431200)
Johan (Gold Confiscation)
70 years ago there was much less gold available for investors.A lot of new gold has been produced since 70 years. I will be surprised if gold was again confiscated,just an opinion.Regards.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:06 - ID#263163)
Central Fund of Canada
Just wondering what other stockholders of this fund are doing with their offering? Thanks.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:12 - ID#339274)
Wednesday the 2nd between 12 and 14:00 hours we had a similar
chart as we have now and we know what happened than.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:14 - ID#212197)
@mole: The problem which many Americans might have with your
opinion about the Republicans is, that they feel the the jerk Clinton deserves no mercy.

But your point in an earlier post was your criticism of Starr. I share with you this general scepticism towards the legal impact of the whole affair and the way Starr treated it.

Clinton has denied anything until the DNA test result was made public.
That shows that the people who trapped him in his lies planned the whole thing very carefully. Tripp was an agent of Starr. She met Monica with hidden micrphones and Starr's people listened. It's completely impossible that Monica is as naive and innocent ( in playing an agent's role in the whole affair ) or else she wouldn't have preserved the major evidence: the sperm infected dress... for the DNA test. To me all of that shows that Clinton fell into a well planned trapp. Is it leagal for Starr to be part of such a set-up?

I think it's a missuse of power and I also think it is less disgusting to lie about an affair with consensual sex than to construct a trap like this with obviously illegal means. It's an incredible terrorist intrusion into privacy under missuse of public power tools.

I'm completely disgusted with Clinton's character. But to trap him like this in a "private" sex affair is indeed more dangerous and disgusting at the same time.

I'm just a European observer of this whole affair. I might be wrong. But based on my observations I can very well understand your disgust with the Republicans. ( That doesn't mean that I like the Democrats any better! )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:15 - ID#22584)
AU down to 19 9/16
Anybody know why AU is tanking?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:21 - ID#219363)
Pushed the frontier into fresh new lows today at 195.01

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:29 - ID#252150)
Saudis looking for bailout@Maybe they could sell some of those impressive
armaments that the USG suckered them into buying. Saddam would probably take a dozen or so F-16s off their hands for 10 cents on the dollar.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:29 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist NEM daily pattern
This is the third day with similar trading pattern; midday sideways all ending with sharp sell off near closing. I will wait to see if today will repeat.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:30 - ID#404312)

because I said it would rise

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:50 - ID#389387)
graphics test
!"#$%&' ( ) *+,-./0123456789:; = ?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:54 - ID#153110)
grow up. there ain't no foundations of freedom in the government. there's just some left in the people. try to get government to protect your exercise of your rights and you'll find out the score.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 14:57 - ID#350179)
Kewl post on sprites & jets : ) Thx.

EZ Believer
(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:04 - ID#173262)
When it comes to Y2K I have been a skeptic...But I'm coming around.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:21 - ID#339274)
Covered and went long on Nem

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:26 - ID#230216)
NTEOTWAWKI .......hmmm
He said, "#!&?#%".....and then she said, "#!&$%??#%" and "$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!". And he said, " ( gulp ) "...........

go golf ( ing ) ........ ( ! ) ....

What are your thoughts on "?$!#$%?"?



(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:29 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist NEM
Man you got brass ones. I read today same as Wednesday. Slight increase towards 15:30 then down for the rest of the day.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:32 - ID#389387)
No I haven't been intercepting Linda Tripp's phone conversation. Just searching for replacement graphic characters for left sign and right sign. Bart's apps barfs at these. How about 

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:46 - ID#339274)
sold 18 1/16,trouble going over 18 1/8

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:52 - ID#389387)
@Cyclist - I give up
Day trading seems next to impossible without a real-time data feed. Quo-track? Reuters?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 15:57 - ID#350179)
I may regret this....
Went long at 15:42 ( that little spikey area... ) setting 5% loss limit trigger based on today's close... Hoping I don't have to exit Monday ( crossed fingers etc. )

Good luck.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:01 - ID#277224)
Am impressed with your prolific trading.However
I have no idea how you manage to make it factor
into a narrow trading range.Brokerage
fees, for me, would be counter productive.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:09 - ID#343171)
here is a good live trade freebie:

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:11 - ID#343171)
check fire, I think its live feed

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:17 - ID#29048)
Time to Buy Gold?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:20 - ID#432395)

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:21 - ID#350179)
CoolJing: note at bottom of
"NYSE and AMEX quotes are delayed by at least 20 minutes.
All other quotes are delayed by at least 15 minutes."

Maybe they have subscriber live feeds though?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:48 - ID#287279)
Read and weep
"John Koskinen, President Clinton's Y2K czar said the government would be moving from contingency planning to a crisis-management phase. Responding to a question about electrical-power failures, Koskinen said, ``In a crisis and emergency situation, the free market may not be the best way to distribute resources.... If there's a point in time where we have to take resources and make a judgement on an emergency basis, we will be prepared to do that.''

1. 1 year ago - "The government will be ready."
2. 6 months ago - "The government is contingency planning."
3. Today - "The government will manage the crisis."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:50 - ID#389387)
@CoolJing - No joy, no free lunch
Cyclist was calling for 18 1/8 on NEM. It took nearly 22 minutes for to display that transaction. For previous days trading patterns, is tops in my book.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:53 - ID#287279)

Its about perjury and obstruction of justice, not about sex.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:54 - ID#29048)
Kaplan's update is ready....
BY THE BOOK: Nearly all of the classic textbook elements are in place for a rise in precious metals prices and a sharp decline in the stock market:

(Fri Dec 04 1998 16:58 - ID#339274)
Buy Signal
My favourites QTR and Arz both are giving at the close a strong
buy signal,I think especially Qtr will double in the next

(Fri Dec 04 1998 17:22 - ID#20359)
NTEOTWAWKI, Namaste'...gulp and a puff to you...your previous tautology notwithstanding...
I disagree...intelligence need not cost trillions...given that certain aspects of intelligence must remain invisible it does not give these individuals the right to look into and under every aspect of all citizens day to day activities...privacy...encryption...ha!

You do not need an intelligence officer or representative to see that Clintler giving Long Beach to the Chinese and effectively giving the Chinese control of the Panama Canal is a serious threat to National Security...50 cents and I found it in the newspaper...

My disdain for filling the government coffers goes far deeper than the funding for intelligence operations ( which I support in the sick world we created and live in ) ...hundreds of billions of dollars go to the "government" with zero accountability...spying on every citizen is not part of is the beginning of the absolute totalitarian state...and I for one am disgusted that one penny of my money is paying to institute this even though it clearly goes against the Constitution...two hundred some odd years later the fundamentals have not changed...contray to popular belief...

1000 FBI files ending up in the White House is a serious matter...somebody somewhere is not doing their job...

And last but not least...a country that acts properly and does the right things does not create enemies which need to be spyed upon...blowing up medical plants...slaughtering its own citizens...these things need to be investigated...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 17:25 - ID#317193)
Perhaps you can answer a question...I admit stupidity and ignorance...Anglogold in rand is at 237.00...Rand around 5.8855 to the US$...ADR is under $20. What the hell am I missing?

St. Helena and Harmony compute but not Anglogold. TIA


(Fri Dec 04 1998 17:29 - ID#20359)
and I watch billions flow to other countries while nobody watches the farm right here in the USA... And as we speak of intelligence why is not more of it applied right here at home...that is my beef with tax dollars...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 17:33 - ID#153102)
@Not For Those With High Blood Pressure

Gusto Oro
(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:19 - ID#377235)
Seems to me it was the Democrats' Clinton who made the statement about having to give up some of our freedoms. If Clinton were a conservative we'd have canned him ourselves for doing the same clownery. Those who support the continued mockery of the White House with his presence prefer political expediency over principle.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:21 - ID#317193)
Bernie....on CEF....exercise if you want more physical
Whether to exercise your rights on CEF is an interesting question. You can buy it now for 3 5/8...$3.63 a share while it has a NAV of around $3.82. This fund does nothing but hold physical gold and silver.

If one exercises the rights and buys the additional shares, effectively 25% of your holding, you get a warrant with each share entitling you to buy one additional share for each warrant at $4 a share in May 99 which gives one additional warrant to buy in Dec. 99 at $4 a share.

The rights trade for $.03 so someone must think the have value...although not much. The question seems to be what the warrant is worth. Don't know. I would guess around .15 to .25 cents. On that basis you really are not getting hurt by exercising the rights.

The much more interesting question is whether the fund will lock in future prices on gold and silver for May and Dec. 99. I contacted the fund and was advised this was on the agenda for the Dec. 16 meeting and I would be e-mailed with the vote. I'll post it when received.

Think about this, however, the fund does not hedge and will buy gold and silver at market prices next May and Dec. At $4 a share if the NAV is $4.50 a share the ounces of gold and silver the fund can buy will be less than the ounces attributable to the existing shares. This spells dilution for the existing shares. Hence, if the fund does not hedge and prices rise warrants will have greater value and the shares bought at $4 dilute the value of the existing shares. The other side of the coin is if prices drop...then existing shares get the benefit of more ounces of gold and silver being bought for the $4 a share with NAV lower than that.

It is probably best to just view the question on the basis of how many ounces of gold and silver are you buying for the money paid. Right now each share represents .007204 ounces of gold and .3602 ounces of silver. You can effectively just buy the shares now at under market prices by paying 3 5/8. So, it boils down to whether you want the warrants and what you think they might be worth. Considering the few cents involved, maybe the real question is whether you want more gold and silver.

For IRA purposes I find CEF a great way to hold physical. I'll probably exercise the rights since I believe the fund will hedge and the warrants will have value next year. I'm only talking about buying several thousand shares and how bad can you get hurt with NAV at$3.82. I've made a lot of mistakes that cost me more than $100-300 in my time so financially it is a non-issue. If you want more gold and silver...exercise. Who knows, maybe they won't hedge, prices will rise and you can sell the shares and exercise the warrants.


(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:21 - ID#215235)
Kapan's Friday Comments
Based on a shift of Traders' Commitments from being net short to net long, Steve Kaplan has raised his current overall outlook for gold mining shares from MODERATELY to SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH! Not to disimilarly, Yvan Auger is calling for the XAU to head above 90 and perhaps near 110 by mid-January, 1999. Could it be that we are on the cusp on a new gold bull? How long can AG and the boys continue to sit on its horns without developing new orifices?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:25 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.86. The 233 day moving average is 29.21

(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:26 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .230. The 233 day moving average is .248

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:56 - ID#428218)
AMERICANS........your heads must be buttoned up the back......

Hillary for President.....STRUTH.....



Greenstone Gold
(Fri Dec 04 1998 18:59 - ID#428218)
In GOLD we trust.....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:05 - ID#280214)
Welcome to the Dark Ages!
"...The ruling system has collapsed and taken with it stable gevernment, schools, libraries, a uniform currency, and a common language. Barter now replaces money as the major purchasing system...."

Sound familiar? Check out

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:07 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Dutchman -- I think you should take a bow. You have my thunderous applause for the exacting and marvelous imagery you have presented. "How long can AG and the boys continue to sit on its horns without developing new orifices? ". HAR!!!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:20 - ID#18355)
mountie question
whats the buy back amount and end date on those mountie coins? is the it cad $ or us dollar based. thanks

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:21 - ID#30345)
irredeemable currency curse.

This is another good essay. I like the part about derivatives.......

"The truth is that the old rules no longer apply. Once the sheet anchor of gold has been

removed, the character of the game has changed beyond recognition. Previously gold acted as

the policeman keeping speculators in line. Because of the presence of gold in the system, the

speculators could gang up in order to bid up commodity prices, or to drive down foreign

exchange rates and bond values, only at their own peril. Their bidding would immediately be

confronted with relentless arbitrage, exacting a heavy penalty for reckless bidding.

Arbitrageurs could count on gold, the policeman of the system, in resisting recklessness in


But with the policeman fired and no replacement commissioned, speculators can gang up with

impunity, induce and ride price trends unilaterally, until they are ready to make a killing.

Speculation has become malignant. Speculators ran up the price of sugar to 75 cents a pound

and that of crude oil to $42 a barrel-and made money all the way up. They drove down the

price of a $1,000 Treasury bond to$500 and the yen-price of the U.S. dollar to 78 and made

money all the way down. And they made a killing when they sold sugar at 75cents, crude oil at

$42; and when they bought Treasury bonds at $500, the U.S. dollars at 78 yens.

During these episodes arbitrageurs have been conspicuous only by their absence. They are

intimidated in the absence of the police, and are gradually withdrawing their services. When

the last arbitrageur abandons the market, the speculators will have a field day. They will

bid commodity prices up to the sky, and drive currencies and bonds to the ground. Without the

guarantees of the gold standard, no arbitrageur will be able to oppose the speculators when

the bull-run in commodities and the bear-run in securities start in earnest. "

I like the last part of the article to long to is about interest rates and credit


"Under the regime of irredeemable currency interest is merely bribe-money, trying to persuade reluctant holders of irredeemable promises to hang on awhile longer. The maturity structure of the U.S. public debt is contracting. Clearly this process cannot continue indefinitely. The size of the bribe expected increases with the amount of the fast-maturing debt....."

an enjoyable and truthful read.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:29 - ID#8763)
Buy back is US $310.00 , expiration is 01/01/2000 after that you get the same as a maple leaf barring any numismatic considerations.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:30 - ID#194311)
1oz gold and a good man's suit.
As true as it ever was.....remember though where the adjective lies.

The good pertains to the man not to the suit.

The man who pays $3000 for an Armani is probably not a good man.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:31 - ID#348257)
Greenstone Gold
Brother Haggis, please do not tar all Americans with a tiny brush. Certainly the rumors of Hillary as our next Queen are premature and ill conceived. What is MORE disturbing is the movement to enlist Elizabeth Dole on the part of some Republicans. A nice lady, but hardly Presidential timbre. Where is Jeanne Kirkpatrick now that we need her?

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:32 - ID#348257)
your komment suits me fine. I am NOT an Armani man myself.

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:34 - ID#371242)
Squirrel i'm disappointed in you
i'm disappointed in you for your the one that has eaten all my sunflower for my birds during the summer and early fall, you never save any for any one else you have taken all for yourself and now the birds have none

that is how you must approach the gold market

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:35 - ID#34883)
@'m'ole/& other ramblings
mole, why'd you have to step on my handle. You take a good, solid, classical liberal
name....and you gummy it up...shucks. Thanks to all who recognize the "Capital" M in my
moniker as differentiated from the small m of "mole"'s. phooey.

What's this, Bill & Hillary dusting off their old socialized medical plan, presented anew
as" The Patient's Bill of Rights" ?...pathetic. I recommend APPENDIX: MAN'S RIGHTS,
( Capitalism, The Unknown Ideal, Ayn Rand )

Maybe Goldbugs got it wrong, maybe they should play the about 'Goldbug
Rights' a Right to a "fair" and "equal" return on our investments...cite Internet stocks as
descrimination or somethingorother.

A quote from Hayek's , 'The Fatal Conceit':
"When words lose their meaning, people will lose their liberty", 'Confucius'

I remember when Rubin gave his introductory speech to Congress, his first words
were " I am a pragmatist", he got a standing ovation...I gotta laugh.

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:37 - ID#428218)
US National Debt........

All Merikans can relax..... it only takes 140 seconds to accumulate an additional US$ 1 000 000 debt !!!!!!!

When are the Americans going to pay their way in the World ???????

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:39 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mike Sheller -- Isn't Jeanne Kirkpatricks' middle name 'Hillary'? If not, should be... Really don't understand you all delving into the establishment names to overcome the establishment values and crap. What a concept.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:45 - ID#34883)
Excellent excerpt! Begins to explain this land of Oz we live in.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Greenstone Gold -- Won't happen 'till all those supporting the lifestyle here call it quits, and stop buying our paper. They can do so pretty much at their leisure. Delaying isn't going to bail them out or keep their factories running. So I really have a hard time understanding why they don't understand.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 19:53 - ID#316200)
Reprinted from The Spotlight
Wall Streets Golden Egg Is Scrambled

Borrowing gold dirt cheap, a leading hedge fund used the gold to finance its investments. Then the house of cards came tumbling down.

Exclusive to the Spotlight -- By Martin Mann

New York City, New York - The White House is quietly assembling a task force of federal investigators to look into reports that a back-room syndicate of Wall Streets largest banks and hedge funds has been engaged in vast and risky speculative maneuvers that involved, among other tactics, rigging the market value and global supply of gold.

This vital precious metal has been bought and sold for more than a year in large quantities at unnaturally low and stagnant price levels in both of the worlds principal gold trading centers, London and New York, sources noted.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan engineered an emergency bailout worth billions last September for a foundering East Coast hedge fund, known as Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) , regulators found that this private investment firm had assumed large hidden trading positions in gold.

That was a disturbing discovery, sources say. LTCM was known for wheeling and dealing in the securities and currency markets, but not in commodities.

They made enormous bets on stocks, bonds and even Asian currencies, says veteran financial analyst Ron Welker. When they suddenly went bust in late August, they were in danger of defaulting on speculative forward contracts worth a staggering $200 billion. But gold was never supposed to be part of LTCMs portfolio.

LTCM used gold merely as an instrument to finance its gambles, says Welker. They found that they could borrow gold in any quantity at dirt-cheap interest rates, often amounting to no more that one and one-half percent. They immediately sold their borrowed bullion, and thus acquired funding on which they paid only minimal interest, far below the prevailing loan rates.

There was a catch, of course. Gold prices had to be kept stagnant, otherwise LTCM would have incurred a loss, instead of a profit, when its gold-borrowing contracts expired and it had to buy back the bullion it had sold in order to return it to the lenders, Welker explained.

But LTCM was not alone in making mammoth speculative bets in the financial markets, regulators found.

Wall Streets largest commercial and investment banks are increasingly acting like hedge funds themselves, says Tracy Corrigan, who covers U.S. money markets for The Financial Times, the prestigious business daily based in England.

Behind the scenes were the Rockefeller dynastys flagship, Chase Manhattan conglomerate, Citigroup, the largest U.S. financial services corporation, and Bankers Trust. They were all found to have turned to the sort of high-risk speculation characteristic of hedge funds.

They all reported losses running into the billions after LTCMs collapse, says Welker. Many of these magabanks were apparently also involved in borrowing and manipulating vast amounts of gold to finance their betting streaks.


Was gold used to help fuel the speculative raids that wrecked the economies of half-a-dozen Asian countries last year? A group of regional leaders, led by Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysias long-ruling nationalist strongman, wants to know.

Moreover, as this issue of The Spotlight went to press, it was learned that at the Clinton White House, a recently formed and mysterious authority known as the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets is moving to coordinate its own broad investigation of these speculative excesses that have roiled the worlds financial and commodity markets in recent months.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:00 - ID#30345)
No Lies.
I'm gonna say this again. I want you people to listen to me. I did not have.....cut, back to reality....Watch the strength of sales for the next short term treasury auction. If we see a shift in the salability of treasuries from long term to short term, or the yield curve is steeper then we have a definite answer. Don't listen to the voices, listen to the flow of capital and you will hear the truth. The dollar is fully one third financed in short term treasuries. This market will make the rumblings of an earthquake first. If I lie then slap me.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:09 - ID#350145)
mole @ Mole - I guess it had to come to this!
I did not "step on your handle". You were no where around when I took my handle. What really scares me is that folks like you, who seem very decent, cannot see this guy Starr for what he is. He is a religious Zealot and a True Believer who does NOT believe in live and let live. His kind are mean and little in their thinking, and have caused grief to people throughtout history. The main question I have asked myself for almost 60 years is why smart fellows like you find it so hard to see these guys like Starr for who they are. At least the American public has it figured out.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:09 - ID#30345)
Who has an estimate for the additional gold that became "producable" as the result of heap leaching technology? Even beter wold be a histogram of this vs estimated production cost. I would be willing to massage this data if only I had a hint of where to look for it.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:10 - ID#45173)
That has to be the best read ever posted here. Excellent!

I believe Greenspan would agree with every word. He mentions the gold standard at nearly every congressional hearing, at the risk of getting written off as a nostalgic old coot. He does this so he does not go down in history as the guy who cultivated the debt monetary system until it's ultimate collapse without having voiced an alternative, impracticable in the current economic, political, and academic climate.

He can say, "I tried."


(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:17 - ID#173274)
@the scene
longj -- I THINK that any data you derived from those kind of numbers would be meaningless for trading or investing purposes. Pretty much like Comex stocks. What WILL be meaningful is when a whole lot of unwinding has to happen as soon as 'yesterday'. Then, we'll be lucky to see more than two days where one can trade before the 'store' closes. The game is wound around derivatives. Not warehouse supplies, or otherwise.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:19 - ID#411259)
..... D Squared B Cubed .....

We already know that, too.


(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:27 - ID#30345)
I am just curious to know how much gold has become viable as the result of improved technology, and how effective that technology is. I don't think that these additional gold supplies should be regarded any differently than when thinking about the possibility of an M1 or M3 increase. This will contribute to the pricing of gold for the person thinking longer term.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:34 - ID#350145)
@ Gusto Oro: If clinton were a republican
Starr would have dropped this investigation long ago. Thats the truth and we all know it in our hearts. There are two moles. The one with the cap M is a nice conservative man. I am the mad dog liberal.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:36 - ID#284255)
It's just a repeat worth noting
Senator warns of Y2K ``panic'' factor

The ``urge to stockpile just to be safe is going to hit everyone, `` he said, citing the fact that people keep asking him what his own Y2K plans are. ``If I dig up my backyard and put in a propane tank, that won't look very good. I have a nephew who is doing that, by the way.''

``What's going to happen when whole countries drop off the radar screen with no infrastructure remaining?'' Bennett said, noting that global calamity has economic and military implications for the United States.

I couldn't resist repeating Bennett's last words:

``What's going to happen when whole countries drop off the radar screen with no infrastructure remaining?"

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:39 - ID#230216)
cheerios pissed in again............
( note to self ) ...................don't take the bait..............ya might get more wrath from the shaggers..........och aye...the hook line sinker thingy............ ( more notes to self ) ............try the scroll button....................

got over it? chant and breath................oooooooooooooooooooohhhhhmmmmmm.............


(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:40 - ID#194311) this for real?
The ultimate irony, the morally defect President rides white-knight like to the rescue of the "biggest financial crisis of the decade" only to uncover massive manipulation and fraud in the gold market.

Worse still it is found this manipulation is used to fuel rampant specaulation in currencies, stocks and bonds....god what a mess.

Pot's about ready to boil over, I believe.

Remember Soros says, everybody knows less than you think they know.

Got gold? hand?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:47 - ID#350145)
@Mozel - you think we don't have freedom
go to Russia or most of Africa or most of the middle east and then you will see just how much freedom we do have. I don't think I have to do the growing up!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:49 - ID#30345)
@EJ, Eldorado
I think that whole site is required reading. I'm about 60% through it and continuing. Another one....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:52 - ID#348129)
@Please, Let's have it....... (from Kaplan)
BY THE BOOK: Nearly all of the classic textbook elements are in place for a rise in precious metals prices and a sharp decline in the stock market: 1 ) historically extreme price-earnings ratios, indicating extraordinary public clamor for shares without regard to fundamentals; 2 ) a deteriorating worldwide economic picture; 3 ) fear of missing out on a market rally exceeding fear of a market decline; 4 ) extreme bearish sentiment for precious metals and their shares as an investment class; 5 ) a recent increase in volatility in most financial assets, which almost always precedes a major change in trend; 6 ) the recent hypercharged internet sector, signaling the most overextended specific manifestation of the general mania; 7 ) politicians and others in charge of financial decision-making around the world being far more concerned with preventing recession than in fighting inflation; 8 ) fewer and fewer equities increasing in value during each successive rally attempt, indicating a sharp narrowing of the viable base of high-performing stocks ( as happened dramatically in the late 1920s, and again for the "Nifty Fifty" in the early 1970s ) ; 9 ) a classic head-and-shoulder bottom in the implied volatilities of index options, as epitomized by the chart behavior of VIX; and 10 ) stocks are able to rally only at the expense of bonds, and vice versa, indicating that there is little cash available which has not already been committed.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 20:52 - ID#284255)
A Circle Of Dominoes

A critical look at the coming Year 2000 crisis using the mathematics of interrelated probabilities

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:00 - ID#372214)
argentina elects COMMUNIST gov this weekend.and what does that meen.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:00 - ID#34883)
mole, I used your post as a vehicle for clarifying our handle specificity. How do you
dig through that perma-frost up there?

As for Starr...he's not running for office. He is upholding the rule of law, in this case,
directed at one of whom should be held under the closest scrutiny.

I don't follow the daily ongoings of the political scene in detail and especially I
refrain from the common nomenclature of the US political scene, i.e., left & right,
Republican & Democrat, etc.. I see Politic as who defends private property. Under
that title ultimately resides your person. A politician who explicitly disregards
private property, implicitly disregards human life.

Strong words maybe, but... pure theory, methinks, thats what it comes down
Oh yea, now Gold, private property in the media of exchange...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:02 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mole -- YOU go to those places. Then YOU'LL know exactly what we are facing here for a future; Mr Jack-boot, coming to visit YOUR 'door'!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:07 - ID#411440)
@ Dutchman: How long will it take Greenspan to drop rates
a quarter point? Forward rates are at 2.52% with US interest rates
at 4% and lease rates at 1.48% That means the profit margin on the
gold carry has shrunk to 2.52% Over the past 10 years, gold bulls
have been initiated by a drop in the forward rate to 2.2 to 2.4%.
If Greenspan drops by .25%, we are there. The bull is preceded
by a rise of one month lease over 1% rapidly. OOPS that's already
happened! If lease rates stay up there, Greenspan has quite a
dilemma. If he drops interest rates, he may ignite a gold bull, and
that will tank the USD, and unwind the derivative mess. If he doesn't
drop to counter the recent drop in ECB rates, then the USD will
appreciate, and turn off what is left of the US export economy, and
we slide into deflation. No way would I be in Mr Greenspan's shoes
right now. The next regular interest rate fixing is due on Tues.
Dec 17. Well, you asked when the next gold bull would begin. That's
my guess. FWIW

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:10 - ID#372214)
nationalising assets all of them including does affect global deflation.

Gusto Oro
(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:11 - ID#377235)
mole...from last screen
All right you little varmint, I keep forgetting you and Mole are separate entities. Gusto and myself are also not the same person--it just so happens we started posting with those handles about the same time.

I still say conservatives would never have returned a man of Clinton's lack of morality to power if he were a conservative president with the same problem. Wouldn't matter what Starr did or didn't do. --Al

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:13 - ID#30345)

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:15 - ID#372214)
how does that affect BRAZIL... REcurrency.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:17 - ID#20359)
more secrets,more dirtbags,there is white trash in the White House...time to take out the garbage
"a recently formed and mysterious authority known as the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets is moving to coordinate its own broad investigation"

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:18 - ID#30345)
And with the Euro an eight day week away. Omygosh. Go gold. Go euro.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:19 - ID#20359)
tomo, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...nationalizing would not solve deflation and
would only put more goods/product/services under the control of the dirtbags in government who started the whole mess in the first place...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:21 - ID#372214)
so how does the word reflate.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:22 - ID#30345)
In fact it would be quite deflationary. Owners would rush to liquidate before being nationalized. We all know what kind of deal you can expect from goverments. This would be utter chaos, and is beyond remote, it is not even sensical.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:25 - ID#284255)
Is this a rigged game?

Try this game with 1% - then 5% - then 10% - then 20% entry's.

A 1% entry would be a pollyannas view.

A 5% entry would/could be reasonable for a country that is far ahead in remediating.

A 20% entry could pertain to a country which is far behind.

Has Bennett been playing this game???

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:26 - ID#20359)
tomo, Namaste' gulp and a puff to two words...IT DOESN'T...plain and simple...
but that is not what everyone wants to cannot fix this situation other than to let it run its course and let the slates be wiped CANNOT inflate your way out of deflation...the cure is worse than the disease...the operation was a success but the patient died...

The chips will fall where they will...the finances of the world have been dirty and underhanded for so long and it is time for the disinfectant known as debt collapse and depression...the world needs to re-learn, remember, money does not grow on trees and it certainly is not produced on a printing press or on a computer screen...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:29 - ID#372214)
how does this sinario affect the price of GOLD?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:31 - ID#20359)
longj, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I do not know which way things would swing I
just know that governments produce nothing and never have...give the government something and watch it die...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:32 - ID#348129)
Agree, the EURO and it's ripple effects should be the major infuence in the Gold price for the near term.......

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:32 - ID#261102)
Senator Bennet calms the fears of the public:
But Bennett said he was sweating the most over other countries, which generally are not as
Y2K-savvy as the United States. According to Strategic Information Ltd., Russia, China, and
much of Africa and South America need major emergency support to survive.

``What's going to happen when whole countries drop off the radar screen with no
infrastructure remaining?'' Bennett said, noting that global calamity has economic and
military implications for the United States.

Yeah man, what do you think is going to happen to the global economy if entire countries dissappear off the radar screen with no infrastructure

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:33 - ID#30345)
Any bozo ( read politician or central banker ) can create inflation in a world not tied to gold or hard money. Just borrow more to increase liquidity. From there they can either cut taxes, or monetize it ( read print more ) .

Greenspan will opt for the inflation side, it seems to make the people who are around longer, and those in the masses who have nothing anyway happier. Besides those who are among the wealthist can exploint the happy masses agian easily. The losers are the middle class. This is the way the upper class exploints and harnesses the lower class to neutralize the middle class.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:34 - ID#20359)
tomo, Namaste' gulp and a that point I am not sure that gold would have a
price as it were...paper money would become/be seen as worthless, which it has many uses, the dollar does not...if anything the amount of dollars it would take to trade for gold would be far higher than it is today...if someone were willing to accept dollars or any paper money for gold...

If I am not mistaken it has been discussed here that gold has not changed in value in hundreds of only appears that way as the confidence in paper has gone up or become eroded...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:39 - ID#30345)
Yep, in two weeks the exchange markets can move 21 trillion around. Oh goody,they ( AG and RR ) will be wishing that thier fiat had the weight of gold to slow the flow of capital down to the real velocity of real money. No such luck here. DAMN I wanted to get taxed next year. Well better to be taxed than BROKE. Dump equities, dump dollars, get GOLD. No get PLATINUM, this is a thin market. JOPO.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:39 - ID#411440)
@ longj and Dutchman: I am not advocating that anyone go out
and sink their lifesavings into gold for the following reasons:

1. Desparate men do desparate things, like selling Fed Reserve
stockpiles of gold ( with permission of Congress ) to depress
the POG with massive physical sales.

2. The stochastics are quite bearish right now: See Nick@C's posts
this morning.

3. The Fed may be leasing gold itself and as such can manipulate
the lease rate down by upwards of 1.25% and that would give
the Americans a potential 5 months of lowerings at a quarter
point per month to stave off the bull.

4. If there is one thing I have learned in watching this market, it's
never predictable, and there will be an attempt to shake out
weak longs just to let insiders in a little cheaper. I expect a
quick V spike down to the 280's before the Fed loses control.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:40 - ID#261102)
Y2K to cost more
and moreover:
``Now, companies are testing repairs and finding that some don't work properly,'' the article
said. ``And with less than 400 days to go, some are saying they can't make all their fixes on
time and will have to find ways to do business, regardless,'' the article said.

Do the business regardless, folks.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:41 - ID#20359)
bondsman, Namaste' gulp and a puff to is a deadly game the government is
playing in the USA...our troops are strewn across the four corners of the globe and clearly do not have the inventory to sustain them should battles break out...the Clintonistas/government are not taking the steps to alert the population of the possible scenarios which could/might addition the USA stock-piles are nothing compared to what they were from what I have read...WHY...WHY has this been allowed to happen...

Y2K could/might be a deadly not surprised if Clintler brings upon the USA a most dark portion of our history...most dark...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:42 - ID#30345)
Try somthing they don't have, and that they can't mess with as well. See previous post or your namesake,Rh. Got Ruthenium? JOPO.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:42 - ID#372214)
i do not understand. when will money supply increase cause commodity inflation...or will it ever...if countries keep defaulting on soverign debt.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:51 - ID#188383)
This URL has a logic engine which enables you to calculate the odds of a systemic collapse by entering your probabilities for various sectors.
It shows the *systemic* aspect of the coming breakdowns.

Greenstone Gold
(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:52 - ID#428218)
This is worth repeating...

LTCM used gold merely as an instrument to finance its gambles, says Welker. They found that they could borrow gold in any quantity at dirt-cheap interest rates, often amounting to no more that one and one-half percent. They immediately sold their borrowed bullion, and thus acquired funding on which they paid only minimal interest, far below the prevailing loan rates.

There was a catch, of course. Gold prices had to be kept stagnant, otherwise LTCM would have incurred a loss, instead of a profit, when its
gold-borrowing contracts expired and it had to buy back the bullion it had sold in order to return it to the lenders, Welker explained.

But LTCM was not alone in making mammoth speculative bets in the financial markets, regulators found.

Wall Streets largest commercial and investment banks are increasingly acting like hedge funds themselves, says Tracy Corrigan, who covers U.S.
money markets for The Financial Times, the prestigious business daily based in England.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:58 - ID#372214)
is deflation good for GOLD or not.

The Hatt
(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:58 - ID#294232)
The base is being built.......
Rarely will argue with technical traders but in this case I believe there is little or no chance that gold will pull back to the $280.00 range. The deflation flag is being waved and a hard pull back in the price of gold would bring on hurricane winds. Last time we ventured towards the $280.00 range statements were made such as, "The war on gold has been taken too far we must move it back to the $350.00 range in order to avoid deflation." Most major players in the world economic arena understand the damage being caused from commodity deflation which in itself could lead to the destruction of the fiat currency. So this contrarian will pay attention to the fundamentals and continue to load up on gold and silver at these levels.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:59 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Winston -- 100% odds that a systemic collapse MUST take place. That number was written the day the usury-based system came into existence. Nothing has changed. Nothing about IT can change. Only the date might be manipulated to some relatively small extent.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 21:59 - ID#30345)
I used very optimistic numbers and got a 17.5% chance of systemic failure. Even used a few well placed o% chances. Don't know if this thing represents reality tho..but it is fun to play with.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:00 - ID#30345)
Deflation is not good for gold. However, in veiw of the FACT that gold has been artifically deflated of late it may just not go down like the other stuff.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:01 - ID#348257)
Your comments re the "establishment" may be echoes of another time, a past illusion. The "establishment" is all of us. It is like a great coral reef whose tiny pinholes are filled with new worms as the old ones die. The structure just becomes bigger, denser, and more pervasive. The worms are us all. We all have our place in the structure. The fresh new worms arrive with plans and conceits of change and revolution. Occasionally they manage to rock a boat or two, but soon snuggle into their pinholes as well. Happy to be a part of the "establishment," and eager to crush the new worms coming up from below...the new worms with dreams that the "establishment" worms once had themselves.
Who will change the establishment? Where are the "new" voices? I hear none. So I would rather have an old voice that I respect in the chief pinhole.

The day will come when the new worms will rock the reef once more. After the old worms have done enough damage. Until then, be like the sharks and eels who skim along and slip through the branches of the reef, catching the prey that nestles there, thinking there is safe harbor with the "establishment. " When their enthusiasms or panic runs amok, buy what they sell and sell what they buy. And wait for the moment when the new worms rock the reef, and you must choose whether to continue to prey on them all by speculation, or give all up for the pearl of great price...a new world. And for how long?

Before you build a tower or mount a war, count the cost. Then be prepared to pay it, or let the "establishment" be. The choice is always there. The right moment awaits.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:01 - ID#372214)
heard on the street
gov of world will inflate GOLD to stop deflation.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:04 - ID#30345)
Yep, each and every fiat system EVER has met with the same end. Poof and burn. Devalue, and put up another rag for circulation.

Mike Sheller
(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:06 - ID#348257)
The Hatt
The charts say to me that bullion has room to come back to 280 without it being a major crisis. Gold has already made a breakout from its downtrend since the '96 peak, and has come back in a gentle return move that COULD dribble further down to 280 without signalling a new collapse. This would put in a rare triple bottom in bullion, and set up for a joyous spring. As it is, any close above 297.50 basis spot will take bullion to 370 before the resistance line in the downchannel since '87 is reached. Then we shall hold our breath.


(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:13 - ID#153110)
. @ Worms R US ?
The "establishment" is all of us ? Yeah, right

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:13 - ID#372214)
the point is lift GOLD to hold off a serious bought of deflation.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:16 - ID#372214)
do it in small incraments so as not scare anyone re retire's....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:20 - ID#34883)
In my previous post the sentence "under that title ultimately resides your person." should have read: "Under the concept private property, ultimately resides one's person."

And then of course, Eldorado@the scene 21:02, continues with the misnomer, :? )

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:30 - ID#215235)
Your 21:05 missive has me convinced. Now where is the deed to my ranch? I have held my mining stocks for nearly a year, awaiting this moment. As we grow closer to the new year, gold should begin to shine. The pressure for gold to ascend has been capped so far, but how long can Greenspam and his colleagues manipulate the market? Me thinks the introduction of the Euro will unmask the disguise and then its up, up, and away in my beautiful gold balloon.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:33 - ID#372214)
seems like it stopped everyone and maid them think.GOD HELP US ALL.maybe this site LEANS.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:44 - ID#254288)

Think of it as paper, the more popular buying out the
real wealth and assets of nations orthose holding that of the less popular script.

Those holding the less popular -perhaps
belatedly- will concur that transfer of real assets for popular fiat is not equitable; then doors close, walls rise and wars start.

This all because a few greedy bastards want control.

Destroying these greedy scum bags will create a moment
of hope, but soon new assholes may likely rise to
continue on the path of the predecessor."

But seeing the greedy scum -rotting in the streets and
fouling the air will discourage the new potentates in
their quest for domination.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:49 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Winston -- Decent odds that Y2K will help the systemic collapse along, if it hasn't happened already through the year that is left.

Mike Sheller -- I guess we all have our own God ( s ) , beliefs, and other so-called 'heros'. I guess mine just do not encompass nazis, socialists, communists, or any others whos own tongue tend to convict themselves of a totalitarian bent. Perhaps you might enlighten me on ANY thing that she ever said or wrote that wasn't meant to further the One World ( bowel ) movement. Anybody having ANY elected or delegated seat within this government is bound to uphold the context, values, and laws of this Constitution. Anything less is BS! Anyone Within this context who does not is treasonous. There are NO clauses within the Constitution that authorize anybody giving ANY power to ANY so-called world body. And do not try to tell me that treaties may do so, and undermine all the rest. BS! Perhaps we should ALL embrace a Constitutional Convention to 'clear-the-air; To make it so; To legally embrace the socialistic system that so many pant over. What think ye? In fact, why haven't they done this yet?
You ask: "Who will change the establishment? Where are the "new" voices? I hear none. So I would rather have an old voice that I respect in the chief pinhole". I would say that perhaps you are deaf; that the voice should be heard from within you that speaks of those ideals, ideas, and the body of goodly laws that make freedom real. Freedom does not just emanate from the mouth of other people ( should that even be the case! ) . It must also emanate from you!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:53 - ID#256365)
sharefin (Is this a rigged game?)
yea, it's rigged and biased, but it might be right anyway. who knows?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:54 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Re: worms R US -- Well, not yet. I'll probably require some lead poisoning to put me in that condition.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:55 - ID#30345)
heard enough from the talking heads...abridged
letting your days go by
letting your days go by
let the water hold me down
into the blue again
after the money's gone
once in a life time
same as it ever was
this is not my beautiful house...
my god what have I done.....
same as it ever was....
same as it ever was....
same as it ever was....

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:57 - ID#372214)
what you say is already happening.all i am saying is do not bring anymore suckers to the chop block untill it is time to reap the benefits...who knows when that time will have it's time....but not now...this does not seem to be the month.............

(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:59 - ID#25257)
Patience my Leonard Buddy. You lay in the rice paddy, AK clutched to your chest...leaches and snakes crawling over your face. Your day will come! No need to keep your powder dry, the 'ol AK will rise from the muck with you. You'll Stand and Deliver. AU DAY WILL COME!

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 04 1998 22:59 - ID#287337)
Longj, Tomo et al. . . . deflation is not . . .
always easy to stop and reflation is never easy. It was Keynes who first pointed out that countries can be caught in a self-reinforcing "deflationary death spiral" which no amount of fiddling with interest rates can stop.

In the US in the 1930's the Fed lowered interest rates to -0.25! Yep- that's negative point two five percent . . . Deflation continued unabated.

The Bank of Japan has likewise been unable to halt the deflation that started in 1990. Just a few weeks ago they got their real interest rates down to -0.25%. Is this starting to sound familiar?

Under these circumstances deflation continues until excess debt is completely liquidated or a national emergency such as a war results in a change in the psychology of the people. Often fascist or dictatorial governments come into power.

In the 1930's all of South America, much of Southeast Asia, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany and Croatia all adopted fascist governments.

Not a pretty picture . . .

_ Steve

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:04 - ID#30345)
@steve in TO
This act will require more drastic measures than interest rates. Interests rates are tinkering, these boys will play hardball. Currency wars, printing presses, and physical war are the next three quantum leaps. They will stop deflation, even if it means losing a standard of living.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:05 - ID#256365)
tolerant1 inflating out of deflation cure worse than disease?
Deflation is way worse than inflation. Countries can survive hyper-inflation, but not serious deflation. Name one, and if you say the US, I would suggest that the US did not survive the 1930's The US now is not the same government as the US before. Ask Mozel, he could probably prove it. Mozel is cool, but I wish he wouldn't argue for pseudo-science stuff.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:09 - ID#25257)
Don't forget the SPIN...the GreenSpam body English. He doesn't have to DO anything. An inuendo is sufficient in this climate.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:12 - ID#30345)

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:13 - ID#287337)
Longj, Tomo et al. . . . concerning deflation and gold . . .
there is some good news and some bad news.

First the bad news: gold is the ultimate indicator commodity that acts as a proxy for all other commodities. When inflation is underway the price of gold goes up ( value of the dollar goes down. ) When general deflation is underway, gold goes down in price ( value of the dollar goes up. )

Now the good news: gold is also the ultimate store of real value, and as such acts as a buffer against political instability. Deflation almost always causes political instability, and so the value of gold doesn't go down proportionate;y to other commodities. In other words, you'll lose less money holding gold than you would holding other commodities such as oil, wheat, pork bellies, or whatever.

If things get really bad, gold is the ultimate security. Gold literally saved the lives of many people in such places as Germany, Spain and Italy during the 30's and 40's.

- Steve

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:15 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Steve-in-TO -- DeJaVu. The system can only fool those who haven't been paying attention to those same scenes and conditions that happened to their own parents and grandparents, and to those who just can not seem to understand the simplicity of the destructiveness of compound debt! The saying, 'the buck stops here', really does have meaning when you realize it means that the ability to pay that debt stops HERE, and on the ass of all those who slave to 'own' those 'almighty bucks'. HAR! Gidyup-go BUCK!!!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:18 - ID#30345)
@Steve in TO
OK with your position.
see my 22:00

We still have some deflation to go, but inflation will show its' cards sooner than you think. Better to be five years early than five weeks late.

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:21 - ID#287337)
Aldebaran - James Davidson has pointed out . . .
that in every hyperinflation in recorded history the government that presided over it has been thrown out of office, usually in a coup d'etat. Israel may be an exception, but it is the only one I'm aware of.

Reify- do you have a comment on the question of what happened in Israel during their hyperinflation a couple of decades ago?

The military governments that come to power after hyperinflations are not fun to deal with. Think of Brazil in the 1970's, or Argentina in the 1980's.

Gold is your only means of survival during a serious hyperinflation.

- Steve

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:21 - ID#20359)
Aldebaran, Namaste' gulp and a puff to cannot inflate your way out of deflation
and I adhere to what is said in The Great Reckoning...The government will tell you, you have cancer, ( deflation ) and that they have the cure, ( running the printing press ) what they do not tell you is they take you out and shoot you, ( hyper-inflation ) you are dead, but the cancer is no longer a problem...

The cure of inflating out of deflation is monetary/fiat death...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:25 - ID#372214)
so you guys say tye only way out of this predicamont is to have a war. I agree . but that will be the end of our society our culture.god help us all.

Charles Keeling
(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:25 - ID#344225)
After reading your posts this evening, I have concluded
that you are malignant.

I advise you to see your favorite surgeon and get your
LEFT testicle removed.

How could any human have such twisted thinking?
You defend WJC openly and without shame. I am sorry for you.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:27 - ID#210114)
Quote of the day
"I'm not a "gold bug" per say. I don't own a bomb shelter or worship the ground Bob Prechter walks on. My savings and retirement funds are primarily in equities like everyone else. I own stocks. I own funds. But I also own gold. I am currently long gold futures basis well into 1999. I have been long on and off for over six months."

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:27 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Well Said!

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:32 - ID#372214)
my dear spock
surfing all webb sites makes you knowledable.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:36 - ID#45173)
War is not th eonly way out, but historically has been the way evolves. There is another way. But it gores the ox of those holding the most paper.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:38 - ID#30345)
No war. They have options before that, currency wars and sending the dollars home. See 13:50, 19:21, and 21:33. and rhody at 21:39. now I am going to shut up.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:44 - ID#20359)
Eldorado, Namaste' gulp and a puff at ya...tomo, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya and I do
not think that all here think/feel/surmise that war is the only alternative...actually there are many here that would stipulate that the world is at war now...currency war, and this war has been raging for quite a while...

During the course of the past 6 years we have heard talk of GLOBAL this, that and the other...nothing could be further from the truth...if the various, supposed, governments of the world were truly interested in creating fair, global parity, a system which could have been easily created, based on gold and silver would have been instituted so that people around the globe could at the very least, in an un-sure world, have a concrete international system of payments from which they could build a business, which could service its customers anywhere on the globe...

instead we have massive fluctuations in currencies worldwide which have thrown the entire financial sphere into an uncontrollable orbit from which a soft landing is impossible, no, rather the only way to land from this orbit is to crash and pick up the pieces...

if people world-wide DEMANDED fair, honest money there would be far less mayhem and a man and woman in any country could at the very least retain their diginity while not having to suffer watching their children go hungry...

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:51 - ID#219363)
graphics text
Anybody know how to make the Yen symbol on a Sun workstation ?

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:53 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Two types of war possibilities:
1 ) A nation ( s ) that will not abide with a sovereign takeover.
2 ) Nations that abide with sovereign takeovers.
The first may be induced into such with currency crisis, or other.
The second may be induced when the first is not not particularly successful.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:53 - ID#373403)
Aldebaran: "Mozel is cool, but I wish he wouldn't argue for pseudo-science stuff."

I second that thought. We really did go to the moon. It weakens your well thought out legal postings.

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:54 - ID#372214)
this site exites me...makes me feel alive...war is what it is... nothing more or less...all i am saying is do not pollute it with preconceived thoughts...let it flowwww........

(Fri Dec 04 1998 23:56 - ID#34883)
Interesting slant to this article, projects discovery process, welcome relief in the doom and gloom of historicism.