Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:00 - ID#153110)
What pseudo science stuff ? What you watch in the movies ? Read this.
"Date: Wed Dec 02 1998 16:01
JTF ( HAL 9000, Light and Vacuum ) ID#254321:
mozel: I think I know what you were reffering to with light and vacuum. You are right that you cannot see a beam of light without particulate matter. That is why the earth sky is blue and the moon 'sky' is black. No Rayleigh ( sp? ) scattering. The scattering cross section drops off with the 4th power of the ratio of the particle size to the wavelength ( IMHO ) . In fact, a beam of light passing through submicron filtered air should be just as invisible as if it were a vacuum."

Don't believe me and JTF ? Read about earth's atmosphere. And think. Or just do an experiment.

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:01 - ID#428218)
Stating the obvious.......LTCM & GOLD

The FACT tat the FED organised a bailout of LTCM, due to their "shortfall" of a mere 12 000 000 ounces of GOLD, does suggest that the FED has/is leasing much, anybodies guess.

Are there official figures concerning FED and Fort Knox gold inventories ?

I am not convinced that LTCM are out of the woods !


(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:01 - ID#372214)
do not pollute this site with preconceived thoughts.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Tolerant -- Too bad that the idea and ideal of honest money isn't born with a person. Or maybe it is and it is subsequently suppressed/debased! A shame and a sham. The concept is easy. How is it so easily made into debt? Why do people not see a government as sovereign and, BEING sovereign, having the ability to create their own sovereign money? How can any people be so blind? How can anybody, having ANY ability to think, not see the simple concept involved? Do most people think of themselves as slaves to some 'society'? If so, WHY?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:05 - ID#267344)
mozel - the charlatans...
seek to burn you at the stake. History repeats itself once again. It seems that the dogs pounce the moment you turn your back. Perhaps not such good counsel after all, yes. Point well taken.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:10 - ID#20359)
Eldorado, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...afraid you may
be would think with all the great minds ( maybe that is the problem, we should let some dummies put a plan together, couldn't be worse ) around the globe we could could develop better alternatives...and more of them...or perhaps realize that an alternative that exists could resolve this whole ugly mess...

The more things change the more they remain the same...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:11 - ID#227238)
Damn! Tough crowd this evening. .... Not even Sheller can keep 'em in their seats. ..... Eldo, its good to see you more frequently. You haven't had a good rant in a long time. It's doin' you a world o good. I can tell. ... "Grin".

Charles Keeling: Good liberals ( oxymoron ) are generally completely neutered. Their women won't allow them into the liberal circle except as that precondition. ...... Speaking of which; I wonder what the broads, cripples and queers have done with our house DemSoc, ROR. He must be engaged in high litigation in the public interest ....... and at great public expense.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:17 - ID#372214)

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:19 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- somewhere in the past, I read an article ( good or bad ) about the first astronauts not being able to even see a single star out the view ports and not being able to astro-navigate because of it. Subsequently, they needed to find an answer to it. Apparently they did ( ? ) . I can say that I do not understand the problem, or if there really was a problem, or if the article wasn't totally bogus. I do not know. I always thought that the incident radiation would make itself known as 'light' on the eyeball when the frequency of it was within the correct eye-ball range. Nothing more nor less. There is some other extenuating circumstance that must be 'arranged' ( ? ) perhaps given the article I read and what you have surmised ( ? ) ? I'm all ears when it comes to new or revised concepts. Let me have it to dwell over!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:19 - ID#373403)
It's not known whether U.S. government officials believe Hughes's communications with Chinese authorities in 1995 about space technology harmed U.S. security in any way. But Air Force intelligence officials have concluded that Loral's transfer of data in 1996 may have hurt U.S. national security by helping the Chinese to improve their ballistic missiles.

In both cases, the companies' disclosure of technical data followed failed launches of China's balky Long March rockets carrying the firms' satellites into space.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:21 - ID#267344)
light in a vaccuum
The only light one sees in a vaccuum is the light pointed directly at your eyes - but your eyes do not define part of a vaccuum, now, do they. You see, it's like this, "goldbugs." One important attribute of light is direction. Light is just one of those things that follows a straight line path, given no outside interference ( just like every other thing except the brains of some writing on this forum ) . In, through, or by a medium, light is absorbed, refracted, or reflected - you pick ( but a medium is not part of a vaccuum either, now, is it ) . You can see stars in space, thank you, because they emit light directly into your eye. You cannot see the light from those stars which is not directed and absorbed into your eye. Otherwise things would be very different. Period. End of story.
But, by all means, don't confuse yourself with the facts. Believe whatever you will. Done. Next?
Why do I waste my time... sheesh!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:23 - ID#219363)
Unemployment Falls to 4.4 Percent
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Unemployment dropped to 4.4 percent in November, nearly matching last spring's 28-year low, with strong hiring by department stores and restaurants helping to offset layoffs at factories. Other service industries and construction also showed unexpectedly strong job growth. Economists said that should keep consumers cheery as they shop for the holidays.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:25 - ID#219363)
Germany Defends Rate Cut, Economy
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine sought to reassure the Clinton administration on Friday that the new German government will pursue sound economic policies, including respecting the independence of the new European Central Bank. Both U.S. and German officials underscored areas of agreement between the world's largest economy and the largest economy in Europe during a round of get-acquainted discussions Lafontaine held Friday. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin praised the "very constructive way" Europe has provided support for dealing with the global crisis and predicted this cooperation would continue.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:26 - ID#20359)
Eldorado, Namaste' gulp and a ya...Hmmmmmm. your 00:04...Hmmmmm...
this is a huge topic you speak to and I know not, how to address it in a responsible manner in such little space...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:28 - ID#280214)
Black Cloud hanging over ASARCO mine
ASARCO announced a $6million 4th qtr charge to cover the write down of the book value of the Leadville mine to "provide for the costs of an eventual suspension of operations and future remediation costs." The mine currently has 125 full-time employees producing lead, silver, gold, and zinc and is the only operating mine in the once-booming Leadville area which historically produced prodigious quantities of Gold, Silver, Lead, Zinc and other metals. The closure of this mine is the final nail in the coffin for mining in this area and for any hope of an economy again based on mining. The region now depends on tourism for nearly all of its non-government income and this dependance is being sorely tried this winter with a lack of snow and cold causing delayed opening of the ski resorts.
Many old and young miners still voice thge hope that mining will come back, that there is still a lot of Gold, Silver and other metals in these hills - but it seems this hope is in vain.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:28 - ID#219363)
Rubin Praises European Rate Cut
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, meeting for the first time with new German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine, praised the "very constructive way" Europe has provided support for dealing with the global economic crisis. Lafontaine's discussions with Rubin came a day after a surprise coordinated interest rate cut by 11 European countries, something that Lafontaine had aggressively pushed for since he was named to the top finance post by the new German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder. Lafontaine called the coordinated rate cuts "the right path. And I think now that we have a chance to avoid a too-sharp drop in growth."

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:30 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Earl -- I'm PISSED and I AIN'T gonna take it ANY more!!! In fact, there is NO reason for me, a Constitutionalist, TO take it any more! Let the turkeys take their 'f___king' BS to the supreme court! Let them submit it for a Constitutional Convention! They don't like the Constitution? TOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LET 'EM RELOCATE! F__K 'EM! There seem to be plenty of other places that are more to their socialist liking!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:32 - ID#20359)
clone, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...when you have a chance send me your email
as my whole email everything went to hell in a hand basket and I lost all of it and then my backup died...oh what fun...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:35 - ID#20359)
anybody...a friend emailed this question to me and I have no, zero, nada, none...
Find out what the prices of semi-numismatic coins ( MS61, 62, 63 ) were during the last period where bullion hit its peak ( I think it was in the 1980s and bullion was going for upwards of $650 per ounce ) .

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:36 - ID#280214)
MoReGoLd@20:52 re Kaplan. Been there x 1 year and POG still dead
"Nearly all of the classic textbook elements are in place for a rise in precious metals prices and a sharp decline in the stock market:..."

The Classic textbook needs to be thrown out. It doesn't work in this market.

Not even the Four Horsemen could put The Golden Egg back together again.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:41 - ID#263244)
In space

If you were in a low earth orbit you would not need to see the stars to get home. Your position would be known based on time. You could set the vehicle's attitude based on the earth's horizon that hopefully you can see out the window. At the appointed time you would initiate a retro burn, all the while making sure that the vehicle's attitude stayed correct during the burn. I believe that there were some astronauts who did this manually.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:43 - ID#258273)
Where is Leadville?

Asarco is opening a huge silver operation on Rock Creek in Sanders County, Montana. ( If the eco Nazis don't get 'em. )

I have filed several placer claims in Sanders County. Should be one of the first to get suction dredge permits for Montana. ( Five agencies down, one to go. ) Assays show good gold and platinum placers and wire.

Now if I could just trace the platinum placers upstream to the lode source. Appears to be on a big area of abandoned ASARCO claims. Abandoned in favor of Rock Creek. This is not too far from SWC so a large platinum reef is not out of the question.

Seems to me, filing and sitting on abandoned claims might be a strategy for the long haul. Wondering if I sell some placers from next Summer and accumulate more claims. What do you think?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:46 - ID#153110)
Except for a certain mental bias which makes us tend to think the universe was made for us, why exactly should we suppose radiation should be visible to our eye in a vacuum ? Were we made for the vacuum environment ? No. We are made to see things through earth's atmosphere in which electromagnetic radiation is refracted, etc. and ionizes gas molecules and interacts with earth's magnetic field. None of which exists in space or on earth's moon.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:50 - ID#373403)
I guess I am stupid
because I have no idea what is being argued here with light and vacuums.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:51 - ID#219363)
I wish I could argue that people had landed on the moon and walked around. In the end, I can't. Reason is that I wasn't there, it was before my day, and I've never taken the time to investigate it for myself. If I were to argue the point based on what I've heard, read, and the information I've seen on the television, I'd be no different than the folks who are piling into the Internet stocks right now, a sheeple. For myself, I do choose to believe that we've put men on the moon, but I have to admit that in my case it's similar to religious faith as I have not verified it for myself. I suspect that it would be fairly easy to verify, however.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:51 - ID#45173)
Yup, great economic numbers. Means another few tens of thousands of Americans who used to make $20/hr building stuff now get to make $5/hr selling stuff retail and flipping burgers for Christmas shoppers. Economists are encouraged that jobs in the burger-flipping profession are a being created faster than the making stuff jobs are being destroyed. Surely this is a sign of a strong, well-diversified economy. The corporate Scrooge fires and Santa hires.

Of course, $5 doesn't buy today what $20 used to buy yesterday and Santa does go back to the North Pole after Christmas. Where does that leave the economy come January?


(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:53 - ID#267298)
Squirrel: My thoughts exactly
Kaplan's first siix points have been in play for at least the
past year, if not longer, and haven't done diddidley squat
for gold. His last four points are up for grabs at best, and,
based on what the POG has been doing lately are probably
off base by a country mile. POG "MAY" rise in the unknown
when future, but, if and when it does it will most likely be for
some reason nooene has even contemplated.................

Go Golf.................

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:54 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- Even the early capsules had oxygen in them. And they were not so far from Earth to not be enveloped by its magnetic field. If there is something to this, it is more fundamental and oblique than this stuff. That, or a conceptual thing that I am so far blind to.

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:56 - ID#24135)
hey hey .. its saturday
for TYoung ..
Help is on the way ... Anggold ADR is 2 for 1. Do same
calculation then multiply by TWO.. You will have it.

to All
This site suddenly infested with moles .. same problem
with my lawn .. little buggers BREED too.

To Dr Mozel ..
Speaking of pests .. You seem to have problem with
hyenas jackels and coyotes snapping at your heels. dont
worry about it .. you can always get another pair
of sneakers..
Saw old footage last night of Von Braun press conference
where he announced that his proposal for space colony on
moon and followed by one on mars had been turned down by
congress. He could hardly keep from bursting out laughng.
What a sense of humour .... Ha ha ha

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:56 - ID#280214)
BigFisherman - Leadville is in central Colorado
10,000 ft up in the Rockies. The ASARCO mine is just under treeline - at over 11,000 ft.
"Abandoned" mines may be major liability problems - re Superfund - as many owners have been sorry to find out.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:56 - ID#57290)
Whitehouse mole:
Special forces units of the Marine Corps and the Army have recently been tasked with combining into a single unit to train for and be deployed to stop domestic insurrection in the US. They are still working out the logistics and interservice rivalry issues. They are training for the war on the American People which will come as soon as Clinton gives the go-ahead. Y2K, market melt-down or WMD incident, take your pick. The posters that argue Dem/Rep are way too late to get it. The game is over and the new feudalism is coming.

George Orwell---"Do you want to know what the future looks like? Imagine a boot on your face- forever!"

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:57 - ID#219363)
Yep, it don't look good *grin*. I wonder how long it's going to take all this to move through the economy, though. I'm starting to think it could be a very long time before it shows up as a mark against the equities. Lots of bad news has already come our way, and the equities aren't affected in the least, I've been surprised by it. I would have thought that most of this would have moved through the economy quicker than it has. I guess even I'm starting to believe that Greenspan can hold all this together in the long term. : )

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:57 - ID#373403)
As long as I have you here, let me know what you think of the City of Chicago having a ban on having firearms. I understand that you are not allowed to have a gun in your possession but it does not forbid ownership. How could this law hold up to the Second Amendment?

Is it that it has not been fought to the Supreme Court? I would think the NRA and ACLU would jump at the opportunity to defend someones unabridged right to bear arms including possessing them in your home in Chicago.

I just went and bought my first gun last night, a really beautiful Beretta .380 Cheetah.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:58 - ID#335379)
Hello and good evening Squirrel... In my travels I visited a town that lost it's mining employment.
It was in Wyoming I think. The place was Deadsville, Things were so bad after fifteen years that the owner of the camp ground, read that old mobile home park with almost no permanent residents or mobiles, let us stay for free. He was only charging five bucks if we used power. When I told him I was just hooking to water and sewer he would not let us pay. We saw old deralict homes and neighborhoods and heard him tell us stories of how all the home owners lost thier shirts and had to sell way below 20% of market. OUCH. I hope the miners are right and gold shines for them again... Condolences....
PS is someone trying to now change the constitution?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 00:59 - ID#258273)
MS-62,63 prices
in general, the increase in the 62s and 63s is not nearly as good as the 64s and 65s. I have some numbers on Indian Eagles from Jefferson Coins October Flyer.

The 10 dollar pieces:

MS-62s are 575 now were 850 in June 89.
MS-63s are 875 now were 2,900 in June 89.
MS-64s are 1,625 now were 7,350 in June 89.
MS-65s are 4,420 now were 18,900 in June 89.

Don't have double eagle prices at my finger tips, but the trend is the same: Significantly higher percentage gains with the higher mint states.

Jefferson would be glad to send detailed info to you. 1-800-593-2584
Gerry Shoen is a good egg.

I have no relation with Jefferson.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:01 - ID#267344)
I lost all self control and let myself get sucked in. You would be stupid only if you let yourself get involved, as I have ( as one who was a complete outsider ) , in such a trivial debate as this one.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:02 - ID#20359)
Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I have been to the moon and the flag is there
along with all the trash they left...not only that but it is made out of cheese which can drive one mad being locked in a suit with no way to get to it and the crackers...ask Sheller, him and Baron Von Munchausen were there...its true...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:05 - ID#20359)
BigFisherman, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...
thanks bunches...yup...uh huh...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:08 - ID#45173)
Lost in space at Kitco? It's like this.

Many moons ago, the Government was so desperate to think of ways to spend tax dollars that they invented an extraordinarily complex scheme to convince gullible Americans that millions and millions of their tax dollars had been spent on a trip to the moon when in fact only a movie of a moon landing was produced. The rest of the money was spent on hookers who filled JFK's swimming pool at the whitehouse, thus setting a precident for White House sex scandal for other presidents to aspire to for generations.

I know. It's hard to believe that the same government that had recently learned that it could print as many trillions of fiat dollars as it might ever need by the simple expedient of abolishing the gold stardard would undertake a risky and devious project requiring actual intelligence and logistical know-how just to bilk Americans of a few hundred million.

But nonetheless, this was done. The proof is that when you turn on a flashlight, shove it into the belly of an Electrolux and look up the hose, you can't see a damn bit of light.

Hope this has been helpful.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:09 - ID#391172)
Mike Shellar
Charming view of the establishment, grass roots biology, reduced to our lowest terms we fit the patterns. Anybody who goes to a grocery store for food certainly belongs to the establishment, and many who don't. The temple of worship around here. heh heh

Ever notice those who want to dominate are waving a printed word in your face? It's not them you understand, it's the LAW. heh heh Stay out of jail..that's the law..the only law..the whole of the law..unless you belive in sin..but that's another bag..bag of...? Clinton is only a run of the mill fool who has enough talent to become Pres. I sure don't have the talent, but I've played the fool..righty O to borrow a phrase. Starr is not just a fool, he's a malignant fool, to borrow a phrase. What's worse he don't know when to quit, but it's over anyway. Fact is few people give a damm.

I'm a closet constitutionalist...that's where I keep it, just over the gold.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:10 - ID#153110)
Earth orbit is not space. Earth's atmosphere is complex, layered by gravity. Do you imagine a little oxygen in a capsule is a substitute for the atmosphere of earth ? Only for breathing.

We are exploring space by machine, but man has not been out of earth orbit. To suppose otherwise requires that either experiments with a vacuum on earth give different results in the vacuum of space or that there is no vacuum in space.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:11 - ID#335379)
Hello THEMISSINGLINK... You are not stupid. I bowed out of this discussion long ago.
This discusion of science in the aether about the aether is so confused now by misinformation that clear minds are drifting away from protaganism. As is the wisest choice when pearls have been cast in the wrong direction.
By the by I visited your site and bookmarked it. Very nice. I work with High power
and only wear a wedding band, and that on the right hand. But your designs are beutiful.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:12 - ID#219363)
I can say this about the moon, it sure is pretty tonight. It was large and full, down close to the horizon, and a beautiful shade of silvery white covered ever so slightly with a tethered cloud that wisped across the bottom like a river of cotton. With the car window down in the autumn chill, my heart was racing and the breeze pushed cold tears back across my temples when I hung my head out into the night to get a better look, glancing at the road before me from time to time to keep myself from wandering into the grass. Yes, it was beautiful, and for me, that's truth enough.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:14 - ID#373403)
Um, o.k., thanks.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:14 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Nicodemus -- EVERYTHING gets to have its day in the 'sun'. Just because something is being held down politically at this time is no reason to believe that it to will not see its day. Stupefaction can only reign for a short season before its fruit is revealed.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:19 - ID#45173)
Think AG can keep it going? You and 10 million other investors. Thus the rallying stock market.

But don't forget the attached picture from just a few months ago when things didn't look so good for the old boy.

By the middle of next year, you'll be wondering why the heck you ever considered the idea that any central banking system, let alone one guy, could control economic events.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:20 - ID#335379)
Hello Eldorado, That which is spoken in secret shal one day be shouted from the rooftops. Reality
always wins it just gives us a little time to wake up before it sinks in.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:20 - ID#153110)
I can see there would be greater satisfaction in taking these people's reservation money for space travel than in disclosing evidence from experimental science to them. Elecrolux, my ass.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:22 - ID#258273)
Yea, we stay away from anything that has been worked for the liability issues you mention.

It just seems that the cost per ounce of in-ground reserves in insanely low. Makes the SA shares look over priced.

Our issue is can we hold the claims long enough for Asarco ( or some other ) to return and buy them.

The only other thing left to do in the high Rockies is target practice with MOM.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:24 - ID#335379)
Oh yeah and while the Real is waiting for some to wake up,
those that would stay liars to the end think that the lies have worked and that they have bent the truth. But calamity will come upon them suddenly.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:28 - ID#254288)

I hope that my last post was not misinterpreted.

Those who prefer to dominate are most likey the ones to create wars. They may at first prefer to take control by other tactics ( speculative attacks, the offering of deals etc. ) , their quest to control always ends with pain. These purveyors of pain deserve an even harsher faith.

Such people have only one allegiance, -THE CONTROL-
that brings them dominance.
When threatened, they will opt to lay the plan for its continuance, even if it means subjecting their own
countrymen or non-conforming nations to the state of war.

It is such powers with influence over governments and those in government who cater to them that should be left to rot in the streets.

Its better a country be neutral and strive to attain
internal sufficiency; that its internal problems be the
first order of business and that trading relations be
bilateral ( with reasonable fairness toward other nations ) . That is a nation should mind its own business.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:30 - ID#20359)
Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to on the Island that is Long...once in a while
we get a full moon that is just looks huge and the harbor glows...I mean it gets soooooooo big when you first see it, the first inclination is to kidding...

and the best part, it makes ya feel like a little kid, only most folks don't realize we ARE little kids in the grand scheme of things...and I say the moon is made outta cheese and thats my story and I'm stickin to it...yup...uh huh...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:30 - ID#373403)
Thanks for the compliment. What do you mean you work with High power?

Many of you may not know but the jewelry industry is about to undergo a revolution and I plan on being one of the shock troops. What I am talking about is rapid prototyping. One can now design 3D solid models on the computer using various CAD software.

The file is then exported in .stl format which consists of surfaces approximated by small facets in the shape of triangles. There are various technologies to convert this file into a wax or metal object by slicing the model thousands of times and then building one layer at a time. This is called stereolithography.

The Sanders company has a machine which is based on inkjet technology but uses heated beads of plasticized wax instead of ink to build up the model drop by drop one layer at a time.

I am taking an architecture course based on 3D solid modeling to learn to use the CAD software. By this time next year I intend to control the entire jewelry business, DeBeers included.

I am so excited.


The other method of Rapid Prototyping is laser sintering whereby a layer of powdered gold is welded by laser in the form of each slice of the .stl file. In between layers a fresh tranche of gold powder is spread over the previous welded layer. This way the model is built directly in metal. The DoD is pushing this technology in order to manufacture spare parts in the field with just a laser sintering station, a parts library, and a bag of steel powder. I figure the gold powder will be precisely graded and will cost well over spot so I am going for the Sanders machine at $30,000 to $60,000 depending on new or used.

p.s. FutureShock is telling my kids in ten years that daddy used to carve waxes by hand.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:30 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- So far, all is supposition. I have no way to prove anything either way. Even thought experiments so far fail to provide any ready answer. This includes how radiation affects 'seeing' given a more or less rarified atmosphere, magnetic field, gravity, or anything else. I guess that if one isn't in those conditions, it will be extremely hard to find out if they have an effect. Given the closed-mouthed and lying nature of government agencies, like NASA, etc. it will be equally obvious that disinformation is obvious. Thus......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:32 - ID#219363)
I'm there with ya, that's why I'm in cash now. As a bear, though, I'm gun shy when it comes to betting against the old man *grin*. I can see the writing on the wall, but I guess I just need some glasses or something, because I can't make out how far away the wall is, or how fast we're moving towards it. It seemed really close this summer, but now it seems like it might be further away than it was. It's so difficult to say as I have no previous experience with deflation, or even really a recession, I'm just a babe in the woods.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:37 - ID#20359)
Namaste' gulp and a puff to all...
Good day or evening as the case may be...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:38 - ID#391172)
Is light a particle or a wave? Do photons move thru space? If photons can penetrate water, and air, why not space? Isn't the Hubble picking up photons?

First time I heard light ionized air. X-rays-gamma rays etc yes but light?
Light reacts to magnetic fields? really??

The way I learned it, a long time ago, light bent ( refracted ) when passing from one medium to another depending on the density of the medium. Other than that gravity affected light ( Einstein ) but what else?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:39 - ID#45173)
You tolerate my teasing admirably.

I wish to see you harness your keen powers of debate and focus them on an issue more worthy of your abilities.

I say we all fan out and start to infest various stock market investment discussion groups with our contrarian views. Over time, we could really have an impact.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:42 - ID#258273)
The Missing Link
This fabrication technology is indeed amazing. In ten years we will have little boxes to fabricate most anything. Microscopic plastic particles can be manipulated with electrostatic charges. Saw a demo. Watch a pair of sunglasses materialize before my very eyes. Cheap than conventional approaches. Can be mass produced for the cost of a good laser printer. Talk about internet commerce...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:45 - ID#373403)
I tried that a few months ago and it was fun but they always end up ganging up on you and shouting you down. Maybe it would be better if we went in teams and held scripted mock debates with gold ending up winning.

Its probably illegal.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:45 - ID#45173)

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:49 - ID#219363)
Your image reminds me of that movie Joe and the Volcano where the character Joe is out in the middle of the ocean, the Pacific I think, floating on his huge luggage trunks. They show the moon coming up over the horizon and Joe just stands there in awe before it. I love that about the moon and the stars, when you're out beneath them and there's very little city light, the Universe gets to be a big place with a lot of mysteries. You just want to stretch out your arms and scream into the sky from the depths of your soul. I can remember as a child laying the in a grassy field looking up at the stars with a small breeze blowing over me. I could look straight up, losing the horizon from my view, and in that imagine that I was falling into the sky, so much so that I began to believe it and would have to hold the grass tight in my fists so I wouldn't fall away into the night. It was so wonderful being a child. Only children can imagine a wolf chasing them through the woods as they run, and end up crying by the time they get home, scared to death of something that was never really there.

... Come away, O human child
To the waters and the wild
With a faerie hand in hand
For the world's more full of weeping
Than you can understand.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:50 - ID#256365)
If you want to post about common law, admiralty law, the uniform commercial code, I will listen and try to learn. If you want to talk about the fringe on the flag and what it means, I will listen and try to learn. If you want to post a scan of a document where some congress person confirms the multiple definitions of the word state, I will listen and try to learn, and if you point out that by these definitions the Federal laws of the United States of America are binding only on it's employees, and the inhabitents of variouse territories, I will listen and try to learn. If you post about gold, silver, world finance, the motives and operations of central banks, I will listen and try to learn. Because I accept that you know more than I about these things.

But when you post about physics, I don't know what it is you are trying to assert or call into question. I think that you have no confidence in the contemporary scientist. And in a large way this is justified. Despite the lofty notions of peer review, scientitst are often narrow minded and have on occasion falsified their data to make their conclusions support the motives of those that fund them. They have too quickly rejected the claims of other scientists who suggest that the current view is flawed. This is part of the problem. They dismiss far to much when they should investigate and either utterly debunk or confirm fringe ideas. But the impression you give is that you believe that they are involved in a great conspiracy to squelch certain ideas. I don't know. Look, you suspected conspiracy and corruption when you first began to look at the world of finance and law. You found the corruption and the conspiracy. You suspect the same of science, and you may be correct, but it seems to me that you have not done as much to verify your suspicions of science as you did with government and banking.

When you present your ideas regarding law and finance, it is impossible to argue against you for you have the evidence, you have the data. But it seems much less so when you talk about science. I have forgotten the question, but I would ask that you consider which is more likely to be more sincere: Linda Thompson or Art Bell?

When your standards of evidence for your criticisms of science are as strong as they are for your criticisms of our current "system", I will listen and try to learn. I am sure I have made you angry, and for that I am sad, but your other message is true and valid and one that I care about. I don't want to see you damage the credibility of that message for the sake of arguing physics.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:50 - ID#335379)
Hello Themissinglink.
High power as in RF and Laser power supplies. I also Hot patch ocassionally, ( hooking directly to AC power at Breake panels )
Yes Stereo Lithography is HOT. Not only can you do complex designs and easy builds, you can also do production runs of different designs simultaniously.
Go for it. I read that a compny that makes cintered filters for smoke stacks is already using SL for production. And making money....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:51 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Envy -- those items are easy to perceive. The larger problem in perception comes in when the gov can manipulate numbers in conjunction with the media. They can now make you see green when it should be red you are seeing. Screw the amber in the middle! HAR! And it is the stock market that they need to keep you attention on. If you look away, you may see that little man behind the curtain. Ain't OZ Just wonnerful? Now he's gonna send you all out to hunt down the wicked witch of Saddam, or somebody/anybody. Doesn't matter. Power is what power can begat. 'Course, people should also realize that power that can NOT 'begat/BEGOT' from the people is no power at all! And isn't all power 'given' in the first place? And what is given may just as easily be taken back by just saying 'NO'?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:54 - ID#258273)
AG's college roomie
A respected mentor of mine was AG's room mate in college. He is convinced that AG is a closet gold bug, and that AG prefers debt default to reflation to eliminate excess credit. He is also convinced that AG believes that if necessary he can reflate just right so that we get a "soft landing" in financial assets and not overshoot to the downside.

We shall see.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:55 - ID#153110)
@neer do well
You misquoted me. Go buy an Electrolux and do some experiments. If they had called it Nuclear Explosion Trek In a Vacuum instead of Star Trek, this discussion would not be taking place.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:56 - ID#373403)
This technology will really have the effect of knocking down the economies of scale enjoyed by large centralized manufacturers. Now I can make perfect models too. The old scale went like this:I could hand carve a near perfect model out of hard carving wax in six hours and then finish in metal for an additional two hours for a total of eight hours. This is for a one time original.

A large manufacturer would spend 50 hours making their original model perfect so that the finishing time was only a half hour. Since they were producing thousands, the 50 hours would be amortized to near nothing and the important thing was to minimize the finishing time.

So you see that it was never economical for the small manufacturer to strive for the same level of perfection so he became an artist niche in the business. Now with this technology my models will have the same perfection and I have the design talent to create infinite originals. Mass customization is now achievable. The small talented crafstman in many trades can now compete effectively with mass producers.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 01:57 - ID#219363)
To sleep with my already sleeping sweet heart.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:01 - ID#220325)
Martin Armstrong on the fate of the U.S. share markets

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:01 - ID#153110)
Well, thanks. But, it's not science that is in question, but NASA's Moon Walk Show contrary to science.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:03 - ID#373403)
nite all
I will read your followups tomorrow.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:05 - ID#256365)
By the middle of next year, you'll be wondering why the heck you ever considered the idea that any central banking system, let alone one guy, could control economic events.

this has a certain ring to it, I'm not sure, but you may have written the most profound thing I have seen on kitco for a little while.

By the middle of next year, you'll be wondering why the heck you ever considered the idea that any central banking system, let alone one guy, could control economic events.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:21 - ID#173274)
@the scene
And for any of you who may be caught up in so may death scenarios, let me present a few that should mellow you out:
A few billion years from now, the sun and world would be at least be an ice ball and we would not be here to further worry about it.
This of course is not to say that if you had not been born, you would not be hear to worry about it. You may blame your Mother and your Father on the fact that you ARE here to worry about it! ( See how far that gets you as they are in the same 'boat', and are now peeved that you are blaming them for the state of the damn 'boat' that THEY, themselves, inherited! ) HAR! And Another HAR!
Mankind will find its true worth in itself when it extinguishes itself in either a final blaze of 'glory' or a final haze of 'gory'. Nobody will be left to distinquish the difference. That will make an interesting story for the histological type of 'plorgy' or something, sometime, to ponder over about some otherwise backwater part of the universe. ( Boy, will THIS one EVER go over BIG in The stupormantics creosoted times! )
Perhaps more of these perusal 'times' shall be submitted in the future. Then again, perhaps not....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:32 - ID#153110)
"mozel -- somewhere in the past, I read an article about the first astronauts not being able to even see a single star out the view ports"

If you recall the when and where of publication, I'd appreciate your posting it.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:34 - ID#258273)
The Missing Link
The effects of technology are profoundly de-massifying all across the board. I spent today leading a discussion among Seattle entepreneurs about personalized product manufacturing based upon profile data. That is, personalized manufacturing.

You are dead on. You can mass produce your concepts, and never leave your PC. Just count your royalties.

I was in a similar discussion a couple of years ago regarding the oil industry. Seems turbines are being worked on that will burn crude at the well head and feed electricity into the grid. Yes, technology will take down even the big oils. Eventually.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:35 - ID#372214)
where is GOLD goiong next week

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:36 - ID#372214)
GOLD is going down.......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:36 - ID#258273)
Nite all
Off to watch CNN. Hear that the guest predicted dow 5000 next year. Then to bed.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:40 - ID#372214)
central european banks are on holliday therfore gold is going souty.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:44 - ID#372214)
no volume no upside on golg stocks.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:48 - ID#43460)
themissinglink re CAD/CAM
You know you maybe could get a CAD milling machine for less than $30,000 if you don't mind cutting down those primitive wax blocks. I don't know how much because Rio Grande has it listed in their catalog as "Call for Price". ( 8-^] )

I wonder what the Abyssinians will do now in the great jewelry arms race. Can you imagine one of these ancient artists squatting in front of his charcoal fire, blowpipe and clay crucible in hand carefully sintering layers of gold? It strikes me as odd that an artisan would want to mimic mass production process, but then a lot strikes me as odd in the world of gold and silver. I guess one has to eat and wish you well but your art is so beautiful I wish there was a way you could keep doing it the right way and hire someone to mass produce it. ( 8..^ ( )

I used to wonder why Western sculpture progressed from primitive to neoclassical through the early 1800s then has regressed in stages to the point where now it is bits of rusted barbed wire, dead flowers and used condoms nailed to old barn board. I thought that there was at least some integrety left in the smaller cities then I found out that middle and lower grade modern bronzes are nothing but bronze powder appled in a gelcoat to a female mold, followed by layers of fiberglass.

I guess CAD is analagous to the printing press for the 21st century. Which maybe explains why there are only a handful of Reubins but enough Leroy Nieman prints to provide t.p. for every outhouse in Russia.

Makes me want to go into ice sculpture.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:54 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- As odd as it was, i can not right now even fathom what medium it was in. I'm not apt to get much of anything too much more notable than a few issues of on-and-off odd-ball press in here from time-to-time. Now, what the H___ was it? Right now, I only know that I read it, I pondered on it for a while, I went on to other things, and I finally read the same type of things here by you here. Should I rediscover it amongst my somewhere stored stuff, I WILL attempt to bring it to your attention.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:55 - ID#372214)
dec is month when xau goes south............

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 02:57 - ID#428218)
The US can't remain an oasis of prosperity.....

The Developing Credit Crunch!

Hedge Funds - REVISITED

Our September observations on over-leveraged hedge funds developed into a much greater issue in recent weeks, bringing it to the forefront. So much so that Alan Greenspan, Robert Ruben, the New York Fed, and many
large financial institutions became involved in a private bailout of the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) . Its failure would have jeopardized the entire world financial system according to the Fed, and it still may have longer term implications to deal with as we see the recent action as another band-aid solution that will only slow the bleeding for a while, until even more money is needed to hide the reality of almost limitless losses.

The bailout was facilitated by the New York Fed, between LTCM's John Meriwether and officials from fifteen of the world's largest financial institutions. Baron's called Meriwhether, the ex-manager of Salomon Brother's bond trading operation "a supertrader", as they reported he had lost about $2 billion in August alone ( a bit ironic in our opinion ) . The Fed feared a failure of the magnitude of LTCM would disrupt the already flailing international capital markets, adding to the reluctance of creditors who recently tightened their lending standards that contributed to the world's illiquidity and developing credit crunch. A consortium of 17 of the world's largest financial firms agreed to a $3.5 billion bailout in return for control. LTCM's board included some of the best minds on Wall Street ( supposedly ) , including former Ex-Assistant Treasury Secretary, David Mullins, and Nobel Prize laureates Merton Miller and Myron Scholes, who have been credited as two of the inventors of modern option pricing.

The Carry Trade: The $4 billion dollar LTCM hedge fund had invested over $90 billion by borrowing heavily in Japanese yen, paying interest as low as 1/2%, converting the loans to rubles and dollars ( or any higher yielding currency ) to invest in the US, Russian and other markets around the world. Their first problem was that they could not hedge their currency risk. This was okay for several years as the yen seemed to have no bottom, adding to their returns beyond what the markets were bearing.

As the Asian contagion forced the Japanese government to more seriously address their economy, bad bank, and burgeoning real estate debts, the yen began to firm, rising a record 19 yen per dollar in just two days as short sellers panicked to buy back their shorts. On the other end of LTCM's trades, they were heavily invested in the Russian and US debt markets, including derivatives ( more leverage ) , betting that US rates would rise and Russian rates would fall.

They were also heavily short the gold market, using this as an additional source of cheap capital. By shorting gold, they received the proceeds of these sales of the gold they borrowed from many central
banks, using same to even more heavily leverage their other, already leveraged investments in illiquid foreign markets

Eventually, these too would have to be repaid. When equity and currency markets began to collapse, their losses began to implode exponentially on them. Instead of unwinding their positions, they did nothing, allowing their trouble to get worse and worse by the hour. US rates continued to DROP against their Treasury short sales, and Russian rates SURGED to over 100% on their bankruptcy news, against LTCM's heavy long Russian bond positions. Petrified investors moved even more money into US Treasuries and gold in a dramatic flightto safety, pushing prices further against them. LTCM alone was said to be short as much as 400 metric tonnes of gold, all borrowed from the world's central banks They, along with as many as 100+ other hedge funds were essentially bust over night. At the peak, their value reached a high of $134 billion ( again on only $4 billion of their own capital ) . According to Investor's
Daily, LTCM's value dropped to about $80 billion by late September, leaving them with a large net deficit. It is anyone's guess how many other big problems will emerge, or how much more will be lost before all
the damage is done.

This was about the time the Fed stepped in to orchestrate the "private" bailout. LTCM was supposedly the all-star of hedge funds. Others have been disclosing their own huge losses, many of which tried to emulate the past successes of LTCM by copying their trades. These too were heavily funded by major brokerage firms, banks, insurance companies and very large net worth individuals to speculate in essentially the same way, as they all let their greed cloud their judgment.

The losses and continued exposure is just beginning to trickle out. A partial list of funds and banks that have reported losses include, George Soros's Quantum Fund ( lost $2 billion ) , Bank of America, Citicorp,
Chase Manhattan, Bankers Trust, Travelers, Ellington Fund Mgt. ( forced to sell off $1 billion in losing mortgage securities ) , Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund Mgt. ( lost $2 billion + ) , Convergence Asset Mgt. ( up to 1500% leveraged ) , Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, DLJ, UBS Securities ( $950 million loss ) . One of the latest, Bank of America, after taking an immediate $372 million write down, assuming the $20 billion portfolio of the DE Shaw fund, and increasing their loan loss reserve by an additional $500 million, still carries a $1 billion loan on their books along with other undisclosed losses. Reuters reported another hedge fund, Eagle Capital Management began liquidating their $327 million offshore and domestic Eagle Global Value Funds ( mainly in equities, bonds and futures ) in order to shut down operations by the end of the year. Nomura Securities plunged as their head derivatives trader resigned after disclosing losses
totaling $560 million. These risks seem open ended and limitless because they aren't completely closed out and many more losses are likely to lie ahead for dozens of companies.

The Fed: In perhaps the most dramatic about face in its history, the Fed reversed from a tight bias to an easy one, quickly preceding their decisions to cut rates twice in just two weeks. The first Fed Funds 1/4% cut to 5 1/4% was decided at their September 29 FOMC meeting, "to cushion the effects of increasingly weak foreign economies and less accommodative financial conditions domestically." The markets were not satisfied with this. Before the next action was taken, Chairman Greenspan testified before the Senate banking committee stating, "The US can't remain an oasis of prosperity, unaffected by global turmoil looking forward. The restraining effects of recent developments on the US economy will likely intensify We can already see signs of the erosion of production
around the edges." Coming as a complete surprise, they announced a 2nd rate cut on Thursday, October 15 ( well timed into Friday's option expiration ) . This time, they cut both the Fed Funds and the Federal Discount Rate each by 1/4%, commenting, "Growing caution by lenders and unsettled conditions in the financial markets are likely to restrain aggregate demand in the future." This risks more forced liquidation and further repatriation of foreign assets. They again cut both, the Fed Funds and the discount rate for the third time in less than eight weeks, after their November 17 FOMC policy meeting. As our favorite CNBC regular Jim Rogers stated, "Greenspan panicked.There was no reason to pump more money into the ( already too liquid ) system to bail out a bunch of ( poorly
managed and over leveraged ) hedge funds We now have the fastest money supply growth in 15 to 20 years

We wonder what the Fed knows that the public has yet to learn that motivates them to take such unusual and additional actions so soon after their first and second cuts. It looks like there is a sense of urgency because the credit contraction is slipping quickly out of their control. It is doubtful that a 1/4% or a 1/2% rate cut would have done much to motivate creditors to further extend credit to already distressed customers. It is even more doubtful that lower rates will stimulate consumer demand when they have already borrowed well beyond their means in an already low interest rate environment. They cannot buy more homes, cars, or boats, remodel, or refinance again just because rates are even lower. We must assume that the Fed sees at least the potential for BIG TROUBLE ahead.

The dominos that began falling in recent months will most probably continue to fall. The Fed will fight to soften the burden of deflation, credit contraction, and debt repudiation but the problems appear to be much more massive than the Fed's very limited tools can handle. While they may win a few battles with carefully timed interest rate cuts, this tool is comparable to trying to put out "the Chicago fire" with a rake and a garden hose during a strong wind. The leverage used by hedge funds was so immense that the unwinding of these positions carries with them
almost incalculable liability, so large that it is doubtful that the public has grasped an understanding of the consequences.

There are many other things now working against the market compared to what is working for it. Corporate earnings have diminished as competition remains intense for less demand. After a 20% market decline and recovery, its P/E multiple remained above that of all other bull market peaks in history and has recently reached another record level at 31.29. This will likely be even higher in reality as earnings continue to fall. These are but a few signs of the aftermath of a mania of such epic proportions. I haven't even mentioned the hostile political environment, eventual likelihood of more competitive currency devaluations that still loom, or the latest manic bubble now inflating in Internet stocks. Long term investors have yet to learn first hand what "professional" hedge
fund managers are now grappling with, that their bravery was and is illusory once the real trouble begins. Of course, the popular averages have come back, but many classic bearish divergences are occurring as most stocks have NOT recovered as much as one would think from watching the evening news. We still see future bouts of forced liquidation because mutual funds still have little cash available to honor redemptions. Banks will become even less willing to lend if their losses increase, and the economy's future will no longer justify the public's high level of confidence required to remain so heavily invested. This will force more liquidation of assets at lower prices. So much for the long-term.

So far, the biggest losers have been the Hedge Funds. Typically, they are much more heavily leveraged - and their positions are much more concentrated than that of mutual funds. They usually borrow at least 95 cents on the dollar trading the futures markets ( and often more ) , and can invest well over 100% of their assets in as few as one or two positions at any given time. When account values drop enough in these leveraged accounts, mandatory margin calls are triggered forcing the hedge funds to either ante up new money to bring their account values back up to a minimum level of good standing, or to liquidate the positions to satisfy their margin loan commitments. Either way, they've lost billions - and are forced to pay back loans on losing investments. Moreover, recent losses have forced them to cover other, more liquid positions. This has helped to reverse the trends in the yen, Deutsche Mark and gold. People often ask what happens to all the money in a bear market? They can't
understand that it simply disappears - and was only really there on paper unless profits were taken.

It seems like US banks go out of their way to find at least one avenue each decade for their greed, poor judgment and aggressive lending practices to explode in their face. This decade the term, hedge fund, will join the ranks of the infamous "the S&L's", "bad Latin American debt", "junk bond collapse" and "over leveraged real estate". Every
time the banks have a chance to shoot themselves in the foot, they blow off a leg! Neither the media nor the public have grasped the enormous magnitude of this problem. It may be bigger than the total sum of the others because the leverage used dwarfs their combination.

I've written about different types of over-indebtedness and debt repudiation on many past occasions. Eventually, this cycle will run its course, fully reversing the historical overvaluation that was reached, and has been reached again, as the seemingly out of control mania comes to an end. Until this purging of the excesses of the '90s is complete, expect the possibility of more bouts of forced liquidation and much volatility as many investors will continue to wait too long again and again before they are forced to sell at lower ( or any ) prices. This is a lesson that investors "could" learn from the LTCM crises if they weren't so conditioned to ride out ALL market declines.

These many uncertainties will haunt long-term investors until they become short-term sellers. This may be for certain.

Hedge funds will likely continue to burn at both ends of the risk spectrum, convinced they had built a better mouse trap. Maybe it appeared true for a while, but in the end, the candle ended up vaporizing the funds that much faster ( and it is still burning out of control ) . This is but one part of the cycle of debt repudiation and credit contraction that
has emerged and it will surely create many other problems. Make no mistake, there will be more huge losses. The world may be coming to terms with the initial shock ( s ) , but like a strong, partially rotten onion, many layers will have to be peeled away before the markets get back to a sound core of responsible debt issuance, risk management, and respect for the use of leverage when investing.

Mitch Harris
Editor - Reality Check Newsletter

I think you will agree, a very interesting article.

One point, initially the LTCM hedge on gold was thouht to be 270 tonnes, now 400 tonnes is quoted.....any more bidders ??????

100 funds going BUST and ALL AT THE SAME TIME !

And the music is STILL playing !!!!!!!!

Och aye the noooooooooooooo...........

3 December 1998

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:01 - ID#372214)
greenstone golg
like all other gold stocks . it will tank........

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:13 - ID#240266)
Commitments of Traders
The COT has been apparently bullish for gold for at least
a year; it appears to have no relationship with price action.
I'm a goldbug but I ain't holding my breath.If Y2K has
half the affect it promises then you want to be holding physical

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:18 - ID#372214)
windy lake
4 one year????????

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:19 - ID#428218)
Now, what an interesting scenario.........

"So far, the biggest losers have been the Hedge Funds. Typically, they are much more heavily leveraged - and their positions are much more concentrated than that of mutual funds. They usually borrow at least 95 cents on the dollar trading the futures markets ( and often more ) , and can invest well over 100% of their assets in as few as one or two positions at any given time. When account values drop enough in these leveraged accounts, mandatory margin calls are triggered forcing the hedge funds to either ante up new money to bring their account values back up to a minimum level of good standing, or to liquidate the positions to satisfy their margin loan commitments. Either way, they've lost billions - and are forced to pay back loans on losing investments. Moreover, recent losses have forced them to cover other, more liquid positions. This has helped to reverse the trends in the yen, Deutsche Mark and gold. People often ask what happens to all the money in a bear market? They can't
understand that it simply disappears - and was only really there on paper unless profits were taken."


Now, if a Hedge Fund can "borrow" 95 cents out of every US$ that they "invest" in.............and if they have based any proportion of the "loan" on GOLD shorting ( be it 5%, 50% or 95% ) .........STRUTH !!!!!

It is a "surprise" that the FED bailed in to bail LTCM out ?

And the GOLD loans are STILL outstanding , WHOW.................


Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:19 - ID#428218)
Now, what an interesting scenario.........

"So far, the biggest losers have been the Hedge Funds. Typically, they are much more heavily leveraged - and their positions are much more concentrated than that of mutual funds. They usually borrow at least 95 cents on the dollar trading the futures markets ( and often more ) , and can invest well over 100% of their assets in as few as one or two positions at any given time. When account values drop enough in these leveraged accounts, mandatory margin calls are triggered forcing the hedge funds to either ante up new money to bring their account values back up to a minimum level of good standing, or to liquidate the positions to satisfy their margin loan commitments. Either way, they've lost billions - and are forced to pay back loans on losing investments. Moreover, recent losses have forced them to cover other, more liquid positions. This has helped to reverse the trends in the yen, Deutsche Mark and gold. People often ask what happens to all the money in a bear market? They can't
understand that it simply disappears - and was only really there on paper unless profits were taken."


Now, if a Hedge Fund can "borrow" 95 cents out of every US$ that they "invest" in.............and if they have based an proportion of the "loan" on GOLD shorting ( be it 5%, 50% or 95% ) .........STRUTH !!!!!

It is a "surprise" that the FED bailed in to bail LTCM out ?

And the GOLD loans are STILL outstanding , WHOW.................


(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:28 - ID#372214)
the hype on the vse is all funds have been selling for the last five qtr so now it time for the little guy to buy. i am not sure.

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:29 - ID#428218)

For those who may be interested, the new "Clinton Bar" has opened up in Kalgoorlie........selling of all things the BIGGEST CIGARS in Western Australia.......guess what the "artwork" depicts ??????



(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:32 - ID#372214)
the best thing to do is keep selling.there are no bargains.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:38 - ID#372214)
cigars went out a long time ago.......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:40 - ID#240266)
Tomo "for one year"
I'm not entirely sure of your question but yes to the best
of my knowledge the COT has been mostly bullish for at least that
long.There have been brief periods when Commercial Traders have
been net short but as a gage of price action this measure has been
unreliable.Please don't hesitate to contradict this if you chose.I'm
only interested in the truth!

Happy Treading!GGG!~

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:41 - ID#25174)
tomo, vse
When the guys working in my companies warehouse are becoming sharemarket punters, the end is nigh . I am closing positions and going physical as fast as possible. If you are stout of heart though, there is profit working the swings - but when do you fold ? The market will always take as many souls as possible to perdition. ALL ABOARRRRRRD.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:42 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Given all the discussions that might have been continued tonight by so many out there, but was not, I will simply be gracious at this time and say good night. Hope you have had a few things cross your brain, digress you view point, trespass your 'reasonableness', and osmose some more righteous and interesting stuff into some of that gray matter. There is a lot of that out there and I know that since it is here, it is at least quite fairly intelligent. You all need to put some of it forth, for how else might civilizations be built and kept!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:46 - ID#240266)
It's like the story of the shoe shine boy...if he's got
'em sell 'em!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 03:52 - ID#372214)
windy lake australian
i love aussie's you think you have alock on insanity.well think again. i have family in australia and the speak croaitian beleive it or not. so indirectly we are family.GOD BLESS.....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:00 - ID#240266)
Fortunately I have many I call my friends who are croations and most are long gold and very deliberate so do you have it GGG!Regards.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:04 - ID#372214)
DEC is not a good month for GOLD be carefull......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:05 - ID#254288)
The whole things a united CB coverup to save some (international) arshe

German rate cut seemed to stabilize what was developing into a solid dollar fall.
The good news is that DM rate cuts normally bodes well for gold.
At least it should keep Germans investing in their own stock market rather than our bloated DOW.

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:08 - ID#428218)
For all Hedge Fund Managers........

Every day take some time to sit at your desk, breathe deeply and ask yourself.........

"Am I still short GOLD"............

Then, practice harsh, shallow breathing......

Och aye the nooooooooo.......


Greenstone Gold
(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:08 - ID#428218)
For all Hedge Fund Managers........

Every day take some time to sit at your desk, breathe deeply and ask yourself.........

"Am I still short GOLD"............

The, practice harsh, shallow breathing......

Och aye the nooooooooo.......


(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:09 - ID#372214)
germans don't invest in mutual funds.....i am sure you know that.......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:10 - ID#25174)
tomo, windylake
tomo, Had a friend recently return from croatia - said it was too expensive to live. He is the second to have done exactly the same thing. Both loved the country though. Au is the ideal place for a goldbug as being dense all the gold dropped to the bottom of the globe - just where we are.
windylake, you are too right! many will take the shoeshine lesson literally.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:17 - ID#240266)
Tomo "DEC Gold "
I agree with you that December is very unfriendly to
Gold and I would expect some more Tax loss selling to occur in the
gold shares.As regards being long gold ( physical ) my view is defensive in
nature as I'm not sure that the true value of Gold changes much at
all.Y2k or whatever watch out.Thanks for your warning.The big SPOOK
is on your side!
Happy Treading!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:19 - ID#372214)
100 ca buys food for amonth thats all.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:24 - ID#240266)
I skied with many au*stralians in my time as a skier and
interestingly enough one of the group was Croation and very
tough, very wise and owned gold.
Watch what shoe polish you buy!Regards.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:24 - ID#372214)
windy lake
the big spook is on the winners side beleive me.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:29 - ID#240266)
AS rergards the Vse: Is not the blood running in the streets?
It only has another 390 or so points to go then it's free!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:30 - ID#372214)
wind lake
first week in jan is a good time to be fully invested in gold...beleive...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:36 - ID#240266)
Tomo "January"
I think you're right about January being a good month to be
invested in Gold and gold shares.What with Euro starting up
and all it does seem like possibly good timing...yes?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:42 - ID#372214)

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:49 - ID#372214)
nothing to do with is a cyclical thing.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:51 - ID#240266)
Tomo "VSE"
Well I guess your question is put lose or nothing
to lose!Last time I checked the measure of the VSE indicated
390 points to ZERO.It's doubtfull as to how many weak sisters
may be left to shake out though I'm equally sure there's some
value left there even as I speak.VENGL as a possible.Fsr as another.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 04:56 - ID#372214)
vse is run by drug is on it's one will now invest in this stock xchange because it is all PR no out.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:06 - ID#240266)
Tomo "No Fundsomethings"
Regarding funnymentals the Vse doesn't care and neither
do people.A time will come when when the tide will rise and raise
all boats.Sorry for the histrionics/but this will happen ;many reegards!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:08 - ID#372214)
windy lake
VSE sucks.big time........

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:11 - ID#372214)
windy lake
try the pink sheets.they suck as well.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:15 - ID#240266)
Tomo "Vse Sucks"
Does the Vse suck ;no doubt.Will it stage a brilliant
comeback ;no doubt.There is exceedingly little value there!
Perhaps you should take a look at some of the senior
gold stocks if value is what you want to buy?Best of the season
to you and yours!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:18 - ID#372214)
windy lake
vse has gone the way of the dinosour. beleive me. ripoff deluxe.......

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:23 - ID#372214)
windy lake
the vse is like a strip bar.the talent got old.....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:25 - ID#240266)
Now ya got ta remember whether it was the cart or the
horse that came first.People love the VSE at the TOP and hate
it at the BOTTOM.
Pardon me for saying so but keep the Spook on your side
and get the cart in front of that horse...IMHO...Regards!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:28 - ID#286224)
I think that is supposed to be..
Which comes first - the CHART or the horse?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:30 - ID#240266)
The Chart always preceeds the horse...of course!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:31 - ID#372214)
windy lake
ipo's set to go on air.distribution all the way up. then old.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:37 - ID#372214)
they had the promoters falling over themselves trying to sell ipo's.....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:38 - ID#240266)
IPO'S get air and get old ...prices rise and they fall
if they'er not doing the opposite!Optimism and pesimism are
forever in a dialectic...I'm sure that means I don't know what
I'm doing!Regards!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:40 - ID#372214)
or was it reverse takeovers.iam not sure.................

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:47 - ID#288115)
Formosa Plastics
While at work yesterday I heard that Formosa Platics had an explosion at their facility which I think is located in Point Comfort, Tx. They were supposedly doing some Y2K testing. So far I haven't seen or heard any news on this so I can't confirm this statement.

This is something that hits real close to home for me, myself being employed by a fairly large oil refiner here on the Texas gulfcoast.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:47 - ID#240266)
Reverse takeovers will do in order to separate you
from your money.Consider supply and demand ...when noone wants
it's cheap; when all want it gets expensive.
Whatever the form the market will confound the majority
most of the time...who are you?Regards!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 05:59 - ID#372214)
i personaly am no one except someone who got burnd on one of those scams.iwas even told to call florida confirming the value of one of these wonderful stocks. andthe i bought more.more more untill the bottom fell out. you should be shut do not add to society you rape are the scum of the earth.....i know....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 06:00 - ID#432148)
Greenstone Gold
You make too much sense. I have to think the derivitives bubble is what is going to blow the financial scene sky high one of these days. The fed and banks saved it with Long Term but the whole thing is much bigger than they are. Can't even get anywhere near an accurate estimate of the extent of the bubble. I just hope my insurance ( read AU ) keeps my head above water, and my fellow goldbugs. I suspect the gobments ( CBs ) will do their best to see that that does NOT happen, so we will have to be a step ahead of em. My question, where will we go with the stock proceeds, real estate? Land out at the end of Main Street? Cash and T-bills may not even be around. Ah yes, decisions, decisions.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 06:07 - ID#240266)
I'm sorry that you lost buying Vse stocks.
It's a harsh lesson but when you buy you accept responsibility
;that is -you hope to gain and you accept the risk.There is
no nicer way of stating this equation.Do not expect social
justice or any other kind when investing/trading.I do wish
the best of all things!Regards!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 06:10 - ID#317193)
John Disney...thanks
I'll try to do that...let's see I only have 10 fingers and 10 toes so if it. Simple, again.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 06:15 - ID#372214)
my loss is my loss.ihope that no one has to deal with the same scam guys never is the same ol same ol again.if i can make a difference i will.thats why i tell it like it is.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 07:09 - ID#254112)
Wall Street Taking over Bank of Canada ?
Wither Canadian Sovereignty: Toward a Federal Reserve Bank of Toronto?

By Michel Chossudovsky

A Case of a 1998 "Northern Flu" Follows the 1997 "Asian Flu"

PHOENIX - Thought you'd be interested in the enclosed article contributed
to TiM by Dr. Michel Chossudovsky. He is a professor of economics at the
University of Ottawa, and author of "The Globalisation of Poverty, Impacts
of IMF and World Bank Reforms", Third World Network, Penang and Zed Books,
London, 1997.

Prof. Chossudovsky's piece illustrates the breadth and depth of economic
perversion which the globalism has brought upon the world. Here we have,
ostensibly "Canadian" banks colluding with their Wall Street colleagues to
the detriment of the Canadian dollar and the Canadians in general.

A couple of clarifications are in order, however, before we let you take in
Prof. Chossudovsky's latest contribution to TiM. First, a "loonie" is a
Canadian expression for that country's one-dollar coin, which has a picture
of a loon engraved on it. Second, "forex" is a Wall Street financial
institutions' slang for "foreign exchange." Third, "Bay Street" is a
street in downtown Toronto where its stock exchange is located; kind of
like Wall Street in New York. Fourth, there are "bailouts" and there are
"bailouts." And it's important to distinguish between the different kinds
so as to keep things in proper perspective.

Prof. Chossudovsky says that, "Bailouts by global creditors do not solely
apply to Mexico, Korea or Indonesia. Heavily indebted as a result of its
failed attempts to prop up the loonie, the Bank of Canada was obliged to
renegotiate a US$6 billion 'bailout' ( Cdn$9.2 billion ) with a syndicate of
Wall Street banks."

The preceding statement could be confusing to some TiM readers. Because
it's comparing apples and oranges. The "Mexico, Korea or Indonesia"
bailouts were engineered by the International Monetary Fund. Meaning they
were bailouts of Wall Street private bankers by the U.S. and other, mostly
western, taxpayers' public funds. In the case of Bank of Canada, however,
we don't have a "bailout;" we have a "conquest" by Wall Street ( i.e., Wall
Street's private bankers taking over another country ) . Just as we had it
in Southeast Asia ( see my March 1998 CHRONICLES magazine column, "Wall
Street's Financial Terrorism" ( available at our Web site - ) .

And so, with this short preamble, we'll let you enjoy Prof. Chossudovsky's

OTTAWA, Canada - The tumble of the Canadian dollar has been casually
ascribed by politicians and financial analysts alike to the "Asian flu" and
"the associated downward pressure on the prices of the primary commodities
that Canada exports". Yet Canada's primary exports account for less than
one percent of total forex transactions, i.e. a drop in the ocean, a meager
Cdn$337 million out of a total daily turnover of Cdn$55 billion dollars of
which more than 90 percent is speculative in nature.

The public has been blatantly misled. The official justification for the
dollar's decline does not stand up; it fails to address the workings of
foreign exchange markets. The speculative wave which has swept the World's
currency markets is not limited to the former "Asian tigers". It has also
struck several western countries including Canada.

Bay Street has joined the speculative bandwagon. Canadian financial
institutions including the chartered banks are routinely involved in
speculating against the Canadian dollar. The amounts of money transacted by
these institutions ( using the gamut of speculative instruments ) are
staggering: more than Cdn$55.4 billion ( US$36 billion ) are transacted daily
through Canada's foreign exchange market, i.e. 32 times the amounts paid to
Canadians in the form of wages and salaries.

Of this multibillion dollar turnover, a meager Can$2.5 billion ( US$1.6
billion ) constitute bona fide merchandise trade. And 97 percent of forex
turnover is conducted in relation to the US dollar indicating the extent to
which Canadian banks are part of the US financial landscape.

Some 36 Canadian financial institutions including the chartered banks,
trust companies, brokerage houses and foreign exchange dealers, are the
main actors in the speculative assaults on the Canadian dollar. Only a
fraction of this business is undertaken on behalf of the clients of
Canadian financial institutions.

The loonie has been transformed into "the northern peso": the same deadly
instruments used to destabilize national currencies in Asia and Latin
America, have been routinely used by Canadian and American financial
institutions in their assault against the Canadian dollar.

The implications are far-reaching. The speculative attacks against the
Canadian dollar have led to the demise of monetary policy. Politicians have
failed to acknowledge the existence of currency speculation and its deadly
impact. The devaluation is seen as a blessing in disguise: a weaker dollar
is said to contribute to job creation. Countervailing measures to avert the
slide were not taken, let alone the imposition of a "code of conduct" on
Canadian financial institutions. Political inertia provided an unequivocal
"green light" to speculators.

The surge of speculative activity against the Canadian dollar has resulted
in a dramatic drain of Canada's foreign exchange reserves. In recent
months, the Bank of Canada has entered into multibillion dollar contracts
in the forex market in a failed attempt to prop up the nation's currency:
the vaults of the Bank of Canada have been assaulted by Canadian and
American speculators; billions of dollars of Canada's central bank reserves
have been transferred into private financial hands.

Wall Street Creditors to the Rescue of the Bank of Canada

"Bailouts" by global creditors do not solely apply to Mexico, Korea or
Indonesia. Heavily indebted as a result of its failed attempts to prop up
the loonie, the Bank of Canada was obliged to renegotiate a US $6 billion
"bailout" ( $9.2 billion Canadian dollars ) with a syndicate of Wall Street
banks ( including Chase Manhattan, Citibank, Morgan Guarantee Trust, Credit
Suisse First Boston ) . Politely labeled in the banking jargon as "a standby
credit facility", the bailout is intended to restock the Bank of Canada's
foreign currency reserves. The Central Bank ( defined in our banking system
as the "Lender of Last Resort" ) is obliged to replenish its reserves on
borrowed money, an absurd situation.

In the present context, the "lenders of last resort" are the Wall Street
creditors of the Bank of Canada. Since 1991, reserve requirements have been
lifted, the commercial banking sector ( rather than the Bank of Canada )
fully controls money creation. In other words, privately held money
reserves in the hands of Canadian and US financial institutions far exceed
the limited capabilities of the Bank of Canada. Together with Canada's
largest chartered banks, Wall Street ultimately "calls the shots". The
banks --through speculative trade-- have triggered the tumble of the
Canadian dollar and the demise of monetary policy.

Ironically, the same institutions which contributed to weakening the
Canadian dollar have been called in --under the standby arrangementto help
the Bank of Canada prop up the loonie on "borrowed forex reserves". The
latter constitute a large share of Canada's central bank reserves.

Speculation against the Canadian dollar marks the demise of central banking
and the inability of the federal government through the Bank of Canada to
control money creation on behalf of society. This signifies that monetary
policy is in the hands of the Bank of Canada's Wall street creditors.

The modest budget surplus of Cdn$3.5 billion dollars ( fiscal year 1997-98 ) ,
announced by the Minister of Finance in October, will barely suffice to
service the Bank of Canada's outstanding debt with Wall Street which has
resulted from the short-term speculative assault on the Canadian dollar. No
doubt, the government is also anxious to use part of the surpluses of the
employment insurance scheme to reimburse the Bank of Canada's Wall Street

Toward a "Federal Reserve Bank of Toronto?"

What is the future of central banking? With its hard currency reserves
depleted, the Bank of Canada may become ( in the not too distant future ) a
mere "currency board" in which the Canadian dollar would be pegged ( e.g. In
a two to one split ) to the US dollar. Alternatively, the loonie would be
withdrawn altogether; Canadian prices and wages would be converted into US
currency. The loonie would be replaced by the greenback and the Bank of
Canada would become a mere appendage of the US monetary system: the 13th
regional Reserve Bank of the Federal Reserve system of which Canada's
chartered banks would become the stockholders.

Dr. Michel Chossudovsky
Department of Economics
University of Ottawa

Bob Djurdjevic
Phoenix, Arizona

Visit the in Media Web site for more
articles on geopolitical affairs.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 08:25 - ID#284255)

Seems it is not the only one.

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 08:58 - ID#24135)
Jse - gold call ..
Fella on following site ..

called 915 or so on the jse-gold index .. that's where
it is now ..

for more of the same plus a free offer to all kitconians
try the site ..

(Sat Dec 05 1998 09:22 - ID#35770)
John Disney
Didnt Prechter using Elliott Wave predict a top in the Dow at 2700 in 1987 and has stayed the course. The Elliott Wave is the best predictor of past price movement I have ever seen. As to Gann, I remember a Phylis Kahn on the old FNN who utilised it to make market predictions. Needless to say she was big time off the mark. I agree with Buckler, those in control are trying to plug holes but they are popping up even more. The dam should bust soon. This rally in stocks is full of diveregences. Further, the fundamentals worldwide are so bad that this rally isnt following the old news follows price dictum as the news hasnt really followed price. Again Prediction: Dow 1300 in the Summer of 2000.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 10:10 - ID#45173)
I've enjoyed your posts about new fabrication technologies. Has profound implications for the dominance of big capital in many manufacturing segments.

I agree that a strategy of teaming up will work on the "other side's" site. Got any targets?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 10:13 - ID#258195)
Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
30 Nov | 69.27 | 70.23 | 69.19 |
01 Dec | 69.37 | 69.48 | 69.08 |
02 Dec | 68.97 | 69.18 | 68.89 |
03 Dec | 68.41 | 68.70 | 68.31 |
04 Dec | 68.12 | 68.25 | 68.09 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )

NB The Index has dropped back into the 68 - 70 trading range this week and is sitting on its bottom level. A break downwards would obviously be bearish but even if the 68 level holds there is as yet no indication of a forthcoming bull run apart from the similarity of the last few weeks action with the base of Aug-Sep 1992.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 10:15 - ID#258195)
Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates and Weekly Summary
For Friday 4th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.10---------------3.98-------------3.67-----------------3.39
Gold Lease Rate---1.49---------------1.27-------------1.42-----------------1.61
( Change ) ----- ( + 0.02 ) ------- ( + 0.04 ) ------ ( + 0.04 ) ----------- ( + 0.04 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.00--------------3.40-------------2.50-----------------2.20
Silver Lease Rate---1.59--------------1.85--------------2.59-----------------2.80
( Change ) -------- ( - 0.30 ) -------- ( - 0.10 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ---------- ( 0.00 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild.
Lease Rate equals $LIBOR minus Lending Rate
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day.

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.82-------------4.74---------------4.72---------------4.68

Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 30th Nov to Friday 4th Dec
Period ---- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
12-Month-| 1.55,,,,,,,1.54,,,,,,,,1.55,,,,,,,,,,1.57,,,,,,,,1.61
6-Month - | 1.28,,,,,,,1.31,,,,,,,,1.31,,,,,,,,,,1.38,,,,,,,,1.42
3-Month - | 1.04,,,,,,,1.21,,,,,,,,1.20,,,,,,,,,,1.23,,,,,,,,1.27
1-Month-- | 1.34,,,,,,,0.82,,,,,,,,1.45,,,,,,,,,,1.47,,,,,,,,1.49
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
12-Month| 2.67,,,,,,,2.79,,,,,,,,2.76,,,,,,,,,,2.80,,,,,,,,2.80
6-Month- | 2.26,,,,,,,2.66,,,,,,,,2.57,,,,,,,,,,2.59,,,,,,,,2.59
3-Month- | 1.60,,,,,,,2.08,,,,,,,,1.93,,,,,,,,,,1.95,,,,,,,,1.85
1-Month- | 1.02,,,,,,,1.16,,,,,,,,1.62,,,,,,,,,,1.89,,,,,,,,1.59

(Sat Dec 05 1998 10:26 - ID#343259)
Alberich on Mozel
Well written commentary on your relationship to Mozel and his ideas. You can speak your mind clearly, and with your words enlighten and sharpen subtle shades and distinctions that, although they resonate in my own mind, are not so clearly seen, what to speak of set forth in words!

But why indict him for his foray into "fake-moon-walk" or "vacuum/light" inquiries? His style of exposition is complex, and human. His spirit is inquiring. His methods include clearly stating his position, and the willingness to defend it, and the willingness to look at other information, and consider. Better than this I could not ask for in a friend.

I'll allow him to stand for his ideas, to argue them, to explore them with others, to be wrong even, to learn, and to teach. Mozel's value to me exceeds greatly his ability to share his wealth of knowledge in the matters in which his is generally recognized as expert. He appears willing to have the truth alone sit in judgement, and cares not for the opinion of men, or dogma, but is content with truth.

I'm no physics whiz, but the mere word seems to me to be somewhat contradictory today. At every turn, we are finding that that which we thought physical is really not physical at all. We are forced at every turn to abandon volumes of work and to redefine what physical means. If "conventional wisdom" could be indicted by Einstein in early 1900's, and again by Bohr, then refined further as we sit today with relatively unexplained Blue Jets and Red Sprites... the phenomena overwhelm!

So, Mozel does not have to be an expert to have an opinion. If he "smells a rat", and his initial research ( which he has obviously done ) , leads him to believe a "consipiracy of government and science", then I think the idea is valid and worthy of discussion. Those who have knowledge of physics and vacuums, and light certainly can counter ( as they have and do ) and the resulting discussion can benefit all.

But to suggest that because Mozel's ideas on moonwalk make you think less of him, and ( perhaps ) call into question his other theories, denys him the right to inquire about what he does not know.

I will agree that his style is confrontational to a degree, but, I'll definately allow him to be how he is. Yes, I'd prefer a Socratic inquiry, more self effacing, but hey, those are the differences that make the world as it is.

The discussion is germane to gold too, I think. Conspiracy to keep the price of gold at a certain level seems to be an idea which is echoed in many posts here, and may or may not be true. I think we are all looking out for the truth on this one, and whenever and wherever it shows up, someone is posting about it. This gives immense value to this site.

As you may know, Emerson is a favorite of mine. To conclude, then for Mozel, from "Self Reliance"... "Whoso would be a man must be a nonconformist. He who would gather immortal palms must not be hindered by the name of goodness, but must explore if it be goodness. Nothing is at last sacred but the integrity of your own mind."

(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:08 - ID#26793)
Rumor that Warren Buffett is selling his silver

(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:18 - ID#26793)
Russian gold news; more confusion and production falling.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:19 - ID#373403)
I wonder what the Abyssinians will do now in the great jewelry arms race. Can you imagine one of these ancient artists squatting in front of his charcoal fire, blowpipe and clay crucible in hand carefully sintering layers of gold? It strikes me as odd that an artisan would want to mimic mass production process, but then a lot strikes me as odd in the world of gold and silver. I guess one has to eat and wish you well but your art is so beautiful I wish there was a way you could keep doing it the right way and hire someone to mass produce it. ( 8..^ ( )

You know, I started out wanting to be a goldsmith in the idealistic hope of being handsomely rewarded for creativity but this competitive marketplace and the ugliness of overhead forced reality on me. I still get to be creative but must employ all manner of modern tools to increase my volume. This 3D solid modeling and stereolithography is but the next tool.

I always stand in awe when I go to the museum and see chain mail armor and jewelry made over 100 years ago without bottled gas, flexible shaft motors, and electricity in general. I know that the craftsman must have spent half a year on a single project whereas I can afford to spend 8 to ten hours on a typical project that the consumer is willing to pay a little extra for over a mass produced "equivalent". There are not many patrons left willing or able to support a craftsman in a six month project.

I really dont have any intentions of mass producing things but these tools will give me the edge up against the mass producers pricing power and I will be making unique designs as I always have. I will be able to take a successful design and customize it to the individuals need without spending an additional 6 hours hand carving a new wax. I can produce magnitudes more volume of my unique designs at the same level of model uniformity as the mass producer with the aid of CAD/CAM.

So I look at it as efficiency and volume enhancing more than a watering down of my craftsmanship and design. Further, this will allow me to produce more of what I want instead of spending so much time doing contract jobs for customers. Now, almost 90% of my time is spent doing custom work for customers and the other 10% is spent designing for stock, doing office work, and posting on Kitco. The custom orders tend to not be very creative as most customers base the design on something in the store. In other words, most are not willing to give me much creative freedom.

Now I can whip out their custom orders in 50% of my time and be able to devote more to the designs which pop into my head all the time.

The mass producers are going to be in for a rude awakening as they realize that they cannot thrive on cost cutting, just in time, and strong managament of resources. Now they must go back into the marketplace and pay dearly for design talent to compete with the likes of the small talented individual with tools such as CAD/CAM.

Consumers will notice that designs will get less boring and redundant.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:39 - ID#20359)
CompGeek, Namaste' gulp and a puff to me when you have a chance... thanks...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:44 - ID#20359)
Donald, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...ah yeah...WB is selling his silver...NOT! what
a joke...these news guys have nothing better than to report fabrication and the absurd...WB selling silver would contradict all prior history of the man, his company and every action so far in his life...

If anything I would imagine that WB is accumulating even more...

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:48 - ID#24135)
wish I could be more helpful but ..
for ROR ..
I Dont like prector's forcasts .. dont like yours either ..
DOW at 1300 in 2000 .. maybe .. but too far out to be of
any relevance or use to anyone ..

Im not smart enough for Gann .. I use ewave assumtions for
trading short/intermediate time frames .. I find it usefull.

forecasting dow at 1300 or 130,000 in year 2000 is mainly
good for cheap dramatic effect .. Im unimpressed. I dont
enjoy playing expert on something that cant be proven one
way or the other.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:49 - ID#348257)
Prechter also predicted something like 4300 on the Dow as the absolute tippy top somewhere in the mid-90's - maybe '93. '94 as I recall. This was the basis for his book "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" or some such. We know the rest.
As far as Elliott Wave theory is concerned, if we can hold new highs on the Dow, we may just be in a 5th Wave of a Fifth, which would be the LAST DANCE, and take us to at least 11 or 12000 Dow before the top. IMVHO.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 11:57 - ID#348257)
technicals, waves, and flowers in the park
One more comment on "technical analysis" ( and you know that it is dear to my heart ) - One must bear in mind that with the information revolution and immediate charts and quotes, etc, "everyone" is a "technical analyst" these days. This is not lost on the dealers and specialists, of course, who regularly take stocks down below their sacred "support" lines, and blowoff shares over "resistance." These "hooks" are meant to get cheap stock for inventory or short already overpriced juicy morsels at outrageously high prices. The chartist and techhie of today must be ready to see wave counts and chart lines regularly aberrated by this behavior. That is why I find corporate horoscope analysis so charming. It can alert me to windows of opportunity at ANY TIME in the future - 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, a hundred years! ( if the company should live so long ) , time windows even the INSIDERS don't have a clue about. But, then, this is an esoteric art and as difficult as Gann analysis if done co0rectly, and a good deal more subjective. So there is little danger of the "crowd" aberrating that too, at least for the forseeable future.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:02 - ID#376309)
John hang in there I loved your site, especially the worst case for Gold. That's the one. As far as the DOW is concerned we've eitehr seen the highs already so some time to come or are in a 5th of a Fifth of a 5th of a 5th right now. Dow 11,000 if it happens we happen without me. It be as carzy as $275 Gold aand $10 Barrel Oil.

But of all the extremes happening right now in the financial market place this 30 year government bond at 5.0% is the CRAZYEST!!

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:04 - ID#348257)
Eldo - if you surf in and scroll across this, please be assured that I share your views on the Constitution and Individual Freedom. These are sacrosanct to me. Your reply to my coral reef worm analogy was both pithy and worthy. You have jolted me back to my radical Libertarian/Objectivist roots, and I thank you. I needed that. Anyone who has read any of my posts or essays knows where my heart is. I guess I was just reacting to the soapbox atmosphere that often prevails at Kitco when gold is dormant and there's nothing much to do except rail against the world and argue whether men ever walkede on the Moon. I get a little testy when people run around blaming cabals, establishments, socialists, nazis, fascists, and Clinton ( much as I abhor the "man" ) for all the ills of the world. Sure these things are dangers to progress. It is the HUMAN CONDITION we must all struggle with, and perhaps, as another poster suggested, it IS a matter of "sin" and best left for another form of discussion. But I am right beside you in your feelings and observations of government - both my own and all the others.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:06 - ID#348257)
would you like to share a fifth with me?

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:17 - ID#348257)
glenn, john, all
The bond is the key. Interest rates are the key. No worthwhile bull in gold has even taken place without rising interest rates setting the stage. Gold will languish, by and large, until bonds peak and interest rates bottom. Then, after a reversal is clearly underway, gold will awaken. As great and powerful as the two decade disinflation and decline in rates has been, that is how impressive the reciprocal rise in gold will be when rates back up. We have gone through a cycle large enough to bring on the second wave of 5 of the bull market in gold that began in 1934, and really took off in 1972 when the last currency string tied to gold was cut.
NOW, there is nowhere to go but into an asset inversion ( and the Third Wave of the 150 year gold bull ) , OR a total collapse depression. Many say the deflation is here and will get worse. They may be right, but just the fact so many are saying it and are worried gives me pause. Others say there will be a re-inflation and gold will skyrocket. They may be right as well. Me, I bet we will see a classic asset inversion as we skirt depression, and lots of that new money seeps into real things. I see a new future for gold, RE, oil, and resources coming. This winter will prove to have been the time to buy oil and gas shares with abandon. It is as clear a bottom in resources as I have ever seen. The pessimism is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Just like the stock market a couple of months ago...and you know what happened after that.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:37 - ID#20359)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...while the cabals, etc. are not the reasons
for all the worlds ills...clearly they are not attempting to make the human condition a more healthy one...the financial world is based upon a foundation of lies and deceit...the political realm is a sedulous diagram of the few forcing their beliefs upon the many at gunpoint

(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:53 - ID#187109)
have a question for ya. You said QTR and ARZ are ready to move. On what exchange can I find them? I assume you are Canadian, EH? ( I could tell by your accent;- ) )

TIA..... chores


btw ....some excellent discussions last night about more-moon-stuff.........not. But I did like one quote......had me roflol..........."electrolux my ass".........that was the most intelligent of the night..............EVERYONE knows its the Kirby.

go golf ( ing ) .....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 12:58 - ID#20359)
EB, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the dreaded Kirby...oh the stories from my
youth of eyeballs and the dreaded Kirby...shiver...brrrrrrrrrrrrr...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:01 - ID#43460)
themissinglink, of course you are right.
I was merely bemoaning the loss of yet another layer of our underlying cultural knowledge base. The thought that in ten years you would be telling your children that you used to carve wax by hand struck a wistful chord. I guess it was the regret that I was able to learn horse drawn plowing, steel forging, and basic metal casting skills the traditional way and my own grandchildren will only learn those skills if they are preserved and handed down.

You are right about the time factor, particularly for the unique designs. One needs time to woolgather and meditate on the form and execution. My question back is to wonder if doing the carving itself might be a meditation exercise? I know that for me the act of pounding sheet metal or looking into the bowels of Hell during a pour are somehow mind expanding, but on the other hand could see that it would become unfulfilling if done every waking hour of the day every day.

So I guess we must in the end agree that "work is the curse of the drinking class". Anything to reduce the workload! ( 8-^] )

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:23 - ID#411259)
..... mozel, mon .....

You wrote "or there is no vacuum in space"

Now you are catching on

I am appalled that you continue the whole light thingy argument. Your complete mistrust of certain scientifically accepted facts, seems supported buy a set of conclusions drawn up by another set of folks, yes? That you choose to absolutely believe these few and confused, rather than 300 years of scientific evidence is amusing indeedy.

The scientific method is cruel and absolutely impartial. One formulates a theory ( itself nothing at all but a postulate, the term theory has come to be defined as a factual noun in our lexicon, rather than the complete and total emptiness it is. It is only one guess that seems to fit the facts. ) and sets out to test it. A million confirmations of theory cannot outweigh one proven inconsistency. This one tiny flaw can drag mountains of theories down. The litmus test is simple. Does this agree with what we observe, and can this make accurate predictions? Without those two elements, you do not have a theory, you have a useless jumble of ideas, of no practical use to anyone. Observation and prediction, any theory has gotta have 'em. Oh, and the final crucial ingredient: The results must be able to be duplicated by others. If others, using the same experimental methods, cannot duplicate the results claimed, the theory is bunk. Remember cold fusion?

You rail against those who would lie and deceive. You offer as support, the opinions of a tiny group, who tend to support your own conclusions. I guess we must just believe these folks themselves are not lying and deceiving just to further their own goals. Your faith in these few is admirable, but is at direct odds with the philosophical bend of the rest of your writings. The arguments you use to defend your indefensible position, are built on much shakier ground than those of your detractors. Your position requires that much more is accepted on pure faith alone, than the position adopted by those who use hundreds of years of scientific experiment to back up their conclusions.

I told you I refuse to further discuss the facts of the matter with you. "So what" can beat any argument I offer, so it is pointless. I am getting a kick in the size of the hole you are digging. There very methods you use to defend you phantasy physics, are those you most despise.

"Oops. I made a mistake", is not a sin.

Not seeing this, is a grand sin indeedy.

Much of how the universe acts and reacts, in counterintuitive to everything we have learned and we have directly observed. But it IS, after all, how the universe works.

I offered that last sentence just so you can twist it and use it in some sort of pretzeled argument against me. I must admit that this is a trap, so beware. When I have, on occasion, offered traps to folks, and told them it was such, they still waded right on in. I expect no less from you.

O Damn K


Your argument has undergone a subtle change from your original assertions. Are you modifying your views, or are you trying to distance yourself from indefensible positions? Please do not argue physics to me. I will not discuss them with you. Physics is phun, but you suck the fun right out of it. It is method which interests me most here.

Let's all pull out our Occam's and compare, OK?


Nocte Volens
(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:34 - ID#390249)
QTR - Toronto
AZS - Vancouver

Nocte Volens
(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:37 - ID#390249)
EB .....Oops sorry
ARZ - Toronto

: )

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:38 - ID#222231)
Syndicate of Wall Streets largest banks and hedge funds under investigation by White House & Feds
re: GOLD. ( From USAGOLD SITE & Spotlight Magazine ) .

David Linkley ( 12/5/98; 10:33:55MDT - Msg ID:1158 )
Wall Streets Gold Scandal Wall Streets Golden Egg Is Scrambled
LINKLEY NOTE: Saw this at another site. Thought there might be some interest

By Martin Mann

New York City, New York - The White House is quietly assembling a task force
of federal investigators to look
into reports that a back-room syndicate of Wall Streets largest banks and
hedge funds has been engaged in vast and risky speculative maneuvers that
involved, among other tactics, rigging the market value and global supply of

This vital precious metal has been bought and sold for more than a year in
large quantities at unnaturally low and
stagnant price levels in both of the worlds principal gold trading centers,
London and New York, sources noted.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan engineered an emergency
bailout worth billions last September for a foundering East Coast hedge fund,
known as Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) , regulators found that this
private investment firm had assumed large hidden trading positions in gold.

That was a disturbing discovery, sources say. LTCM was known for wheeling
and dealing in the securities and currency markets, but not in commodities.

They made enormous bets on stocks, bonds and even Asian currencies, says
veteran financial analyst Ron Welker. When they suddenly went bust in late
August, they were in danger of defaulting on speculative forward contracts
worth a staggering $200 billion. But gold was never supposed to be part of
LTCMs portfolio.

LTCM used gold merely as an instrument to finance its gambles, says Welker.
They found that they could borrow gold in any quantity at dirt-cheap interest
rates, often amounting to no more that one and one-half percent. They
immediately sold their borrowed bullion, and thus acquired funding on which
they paid only minimal interest, far below the prevailing loan rates.

There was a catch, of course. Gold prices had to be kept stagnant, otherwise
LTCM would have incurred a loss, instead of a profit, when its gold-borrowing
contracts expired and it had to buy back the bullion it had sold in order to
return it to the lenders, Welker explained.

But LTCM was not alone in making mammoth speculative bets in the financial
markets, regulators found.

Wall Streets largest commercial and investment banks are increasingly acting
like hedge funds themselves, says Tracy Corrigan, who covers U.S. money
markets for The Financial Times, the prestigious business daily based in

Behind the scenes were the Rockefeller dynastys flagship, Chase Manhattan
conglomerate, Citigroup, the largest U.S. financial services corporation, and
Bankers Trust. They were all found to have turned to the sort of high-risk
speculation characteristic of hedge funds.

They all reported losses running into the billions after LTCMs collapse, says
Welker. Many of these megabanks were apparently also involved in borrowing
and manipulating vast amounts of gold to finance their betting streaks.


Was gold used to help fuel the speculative raids that wrecked the economies of
half-a-dozen Asian countries last
year? A group of regional leaders, led by Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad,
Malaysias long-ruling nationalist strongman, wants to know.

Moreover, as this issue of The Spotlight went to press, it was learned that at
the Clinton White House, a recently
formed and mysterious authority known as the Presidents Working Group on
Financial Markets is moving to coordinate its own broad investigation of these
speculative excesses that have roiled the worlds financial and commodity
markets in recent months.

Exclusive to the Spotlight

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:39 - ID#219363)
Gagnrad, TheMissingLink, EJ, others
I checked into the manufacturing side of things not to long ago and was simply blown away by the processes that are in place these days. Someone here mentioned that you could purchase a milling machine for 30K$US, which is interesting. But after checking around, I think you'd be wasting your money. The process can be as simple as calling up the web page for some of the rapid prototyping shops, submitting your CAD/CAM design OVER THE WEB to them, and letting them do all the work from there. They'll use a prototyping machine to build up the wax and create a prototype in metal if you like. They will work directly with the manufacturer to mass produce, and you can have the manufacturer deliver product directly to packaging and on to the stores. As, I believe TheMissingLink said, you don't even have to leave your PC to have your designs show up in the stores, you just have to know the process and the people involved. If you take the time and find the right people, you really can do everything from design through delivery to your customers without ever leaving home.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:48 - ID#376309)
I AGREE 100%
Sat Dec 05 1998 12:17 -- Mike Sheller

interest rates need to go up for the bull in Gold to go!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:55 - ID#411259)
..... Indeedy .....

Excellent posts on LTMC this fine and sunny morning.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 13:57 - ID#411259)
..... Oops, I made a mistake .....

LTCM is the non-dyslexic version of what I meant to type.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:01 - ID#376309)
Mike Sheller if you want to join me with a Fifth, then Go Here:

After you read the introduction click on 'Daily Advance-Decline'.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:06 - ID#206235)
Few comments on Collectible Gold coins, latest CDN
Optimism Runs High In Sight-Unseen Market

"C" And "D" Gold Strong At Auction

There appears to be plenty of optimism flowing in the rare coin market. These sentiments are being expressed by dealers and collector/investors. This exuberance has been taking place during November shows and public auctions. We also here the excitement from dealers that talk to us about the current state of the market. The November 13-15 Suburban Washington/Baltimore Convention reinforces the strength of the market. However, many dealers traveled to Baltimore hoping to buy coins for their customers. Want lists have been growing because collectors/investors feel good about the economy and their financial position. They are more willing to treat themselves to rare coins. They are getting in touch with the hobby they enjoyed many years ago. Now, they are able and happy to buy some of the key and semi-key dates they had always wanted.

Dealers are benefiting from the growing demand and increasing customer base. They are also benefiting from the country's general good prosperity. These benefits are being explained by the strong supporting and increasing Bids. Some dealers continually increase the amount they are willing to pay for specific dates and denominations. They are hoping to buy some of these coins. We see that they are willing to increase their offers each week in an effort to be successful. Many of these Bids are being offered sight-unseen. Dealers need material and are willing to do whatever it takes to satisfy their customer's demand.

The demand in the sight-unseen market is very strong. Actually, this demand is a spill-over from the sight-seen market. Dealers do have specific needs. Selectivity is important. Collectors of the 1990s are more knowledgeable today. They have a greater understanding about rare coins and they tend to specialize in areas that they like.

Certified Coins performed well in the Bowers and Merena auction held November 12-14 in Baltimore. The sale totaled more than $6.322 million

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:11 - ID#24135)
now lets get serious ..
To all Physicists..
No one has ever responded to my two part scientific
question which incorporated both physics and biological
components .. not to mention just a touch of Magritte
and a smidgeon of Zen Koan ..
If by chance .. we could somehow place Bugal ( for example )
IN A PERFECT VACUUM .. would his eyeballs pop out ??
AND if the aforementioned eyeballs DID pop out
could we SEE IT Happen ??
To expand .. if also RJ were to somehow fall into this
vacuum testing trap .. and called out "INDEEDY" ...
could we hear it ???
Inquiring minds must know..

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:15 - ID#206235)
Latest Kaplan Gold comments
by Steven Jon KaplanBack Issue ListUpdated @ 5:00 p.m. EDT, Friday, December 4, 1998.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities fell slightly on Friday, with the CRB index falling to its lowest level since October 31, 1977 ( more than 21 years! ) in morning trading. Precious metals were little changed: gold edged up 60 cents, silver dipped 0.8 cents, platinum added 80 cents, and palladium gained 70 cents. The U.S. dollar rose modestly against most major currencies. Bonds retreated modestly, as U.S. employment data showed strong employment growth. Average hourly wages rose from $12.90 to $12.93; this number is 3.7% above the levels of one year ago.

According to a report released Thursday by the Gold Institute, the gold industry over the past decade has increasingly moved away from traditional hedging methods such as gold loans and forward sales to the use of options.

Friday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a very light 14,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Thursday rose 2,377 to 147,963 contracts, continuing to rebound from a historically very low total at the close of trading on Tuesday, December 1, 1998. The December to February rollover is nearly complete, with December open interest down to 1,945. COMEX silver open interest climbed 1,091 to 81,412 lots. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 831,048 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks fell 161,660 to 78,399,758 ounces, modestly above their lowest level since 1982. The Johannesburg gold index closed Friday morning at 911.3, down 7.6 rand, with the U.S. dollar at 5.8855 rand, its highest level in two months. On Friday, August 28, 1998, the dollar touched a new all-time high of 6.8600 rand.

The current outlook for gold mining shares is SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH due to the following factors, in order of importance: 1 ) the volatility in the U.S. financial markets, including several in what will surely be a long series of hedge fund failures, which will spur a small but critical and inevitably growing mass of investors to seek out alternative places to put their money; 2 ) the successful retesting and recapture of the long-term triple bottom in the XAU, demonstrating that skeptical or non-committed investors finally decided to bail out at the bottom in late August 1998; 3 ) an accelerating worldwide trend toward cutting short-term interest rates to prevent a severe recession, thus lowering the carrying cost of gold as a competitive investment and stimulating the economy without regard to its potentially inflationary implications; 4 ) bullish traders' commitments for gold; 5 ) generally bearish forecasts for precious metals and their shares by major brokerages, as is typical of the early stages of any major bull market following a long-term bear market; 6 ) traders' commitments in other commodities and financial instruments that correlate positively with gold and which are showing powerful commercial accumulation, including especially cotton, the Swiss franc, the British pound sterling, cocoa, unleaded gas, rough rice, copper, crude oil, lean hogs, pork bellies, and short-selling T-bonds; and 7 ) significant insider buying by corporate executives of gold mining companies.


Friday, December 4, 1998: The overall current outlook for gold has risen from MODERATELY BULLISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH, as the traders' commitments have moderately improved, and a recent price decline has created a buying opportunity especially in the shares, which have recently fallen proportionately more than is justified by the modest decline in the price of the yellow metal itself.

Friday, December 4, 1998: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has climbed from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to MODERATELY BULLISH, reflecting the commercials' change from a modest net short to a small net long position, accompanied by speculators going net short.

Friday, December 4, 1998: The other precious metals indicator has dropped from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, reflecting a deterioration in the traders' commitments for palladium and especially for platinum.

Friday, December 4, 1998: The gauges of future inflation indicator has climbed from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, reflecting the recent rebound in the ECRI-FIG and CIBCR indices.


One of the most important factors affecting the market is the traders' commitments as reported every second Friday by the COMEX. These commitments tell you what the commercials, or industry insiders, are doing vs. the non-commercial outsiders, also known as speculators. If the insiders, such as producers, jewelers, fabricators, and industrial users, are buying, while the speculators are selling short, this is BULLISH. If insiders are selling as fast as they can, while speculators are buying left and right, this is BEARISH. In any business, especially in commodities, people in the thick of things obviously know much more about the supply/demand situation than people who have no connection to the industry and are just trying to get rich quickly. Readers interested in the official traders' commitments for all commodities and financial instruments should go to for many years of data.

As of December 1, 1998, released at 3:30 p.m. on December 4, 1998, the commitments for COMEX gold futures show commercial insiders long 82,066, short 80,961; speculators long 12,857, short 16,775. Small traders included in the numbers above were long 27,860, short 25,047. The average historic ratio for commercials is 2:3 long to short; for speculators, 2:1 long to short. Commercials have switched from being modestly net short to slightly net long in two weeks, marking a moderate improvement. Therefore, this indicator has been raised to MODERATELY BULLISH.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:15 - ID#294232)
Watch for gold defaults soon!
If Clinton and the boys are serious about launching an investigation and it indeed becomes public I would expect to see major defaults near term. What a spin Clinton makes himself look like a hero by uncovering the greatest financial scandal ever. The timing tells me this is a reactionary move to take the question as to whether the U.S. government were involved out of the equation. Perhaps Greenspan and Rubin have alerted Clinton that a bomb is about to go off and that it will have nasty consequences. This does not come as a surprise to goldbugs as we have known for a long time that the gold market has indeed been rigged. Again if this story is true watch for a sharp rise in lease rates followed by a history making short squeeze! The game is drawing near an end and the contrarians will be well rewarded for their refusal to put on rose colored glasses supplied by the government.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:23 - ID#206235)
@ John Disney....Gone Fishin, I'm not biting
While I have been generally ignoring your unprovoked snipes, brought on no doubt by your compulsive / Obsessive disorder toward me, and exacerbated by your need to shift the subject away from your hero Mozel's incredibly foolish attempt to convince us that all known laws of science are inferior to his fantasy's.......

While I've been trying patiently to follow the old maxim, "Ignore the IgnorANT" ( And you ARE an ant.... ) it apears that the lack of interets by Kitco in your Ohh so clever shofting of the science debate away from your gross ignorance in order to cast unprovoked insults my way, demands a little telling of a fishing story.


The serenity of the beautiful mountain scene was broken,
as the fat ugly two legged creature broke crudely through the brush.

In moments, a dry fly alighted on a shimmering surface ripple
But the fly was poorly tied, and quickly unraveled in the stream.
Bits of detritus floated from it, as the inferior offering came apart,
in the current of the pristene waters.

The Golden trout, shook it's head in disgust, and did not bite.

Not much later, an annoying splash from the far side of the pool.
A corroded bit of metal, wobbled across the pebbled floor,
of the jewel like stream. But the lure's flash was gone...
What once was a shiny, gold and silver minnow imitation,
was now simply a rusted piece, of ugly scrap.

The Golden trout, shook it's head in disgust, and did not bite.

Finally, a nearby plop, and a new offering. Was it live food this time?
No....a small....limp....dead.....worm. Lifeless, ripe with the odor
of decay. Offensively pathetic, was the worm, and it's stench.

The Golden trout, shook it's head in disgust, and did not bite.

The Golden trout wondered at this final sad offering.
Did the two legged creature have nothing more to present,
than a limp, lifeless, dead, and decaying worm?
And what was that other olfactory offense permeating
the purity of these waters?
The scent of the anglers hands on all three inferior offerings?

Could it be that the angler had the two legged creatrures version of fin rot? On it's nether regions? Parasites? Perhaps it had eaten some bad insects, or had done some bottom feeding.

No matter. It was a mystery,
that passed quickly from the Golden trout's interest.

The Golden trout, shook it's head in disgust, and did not bite.

Instead.... with a sweep of it's tail, the Golden trout,
escaped the pollution of the angler's detritus,
by moving upstream, and resolving...
to stay far upstream, until the offensive odor of the pathetic angler,
dissipated away to the sea.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:26 - ID#411259)
..... Lurkey .....

Way cool post

JD -


Nope, guess not

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:28 - ID#286230)
The Hatt
I've lost the topic-- what are you anticipating from Clinton?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:28 - ID#206235)
@ Mozel....
In space no one can hear you scream...

And no one can see you scream either, the reflection of light off you is invisible!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:35 - ID#276230)
Seriously/Avid chatter

kkd... Sat, Dec 5, 0:12AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

Brent The following is only a breif explanation Austrian economics is my prefferred "frame work" in assessing global macro situation. Specifically, in japan , whats refferred to as the "pool of funding" has been depleted in japan over the last 30 or so years. The "pool of funding" basically encmpasses the net wealth of a nation. This net wealth is eroded by the artificial manipulation of economics areas of interest, primarily interest rates. In japan specifically, what people referr to as the "bubble economy of the 80's" was the climax of this manipulation of the pool of funding..Once manipulation occurrs, the short term ( prehaps many years ) benefits of reduced unemployment, high eco growth rates etc are not sustainable & the economy must collapse & return to the mean. All gov't policies are manipulation. It is basically the misallocation of resources. The lowering ( or increase ) of interest rates by reserve banks is a wealth consuming activity to a nation which, because it dosnt correspond to consumers decision to save more, implies that there isn't an increase in the allocation of the means of sustence ( ie productve resources ) in the economy. So capital ( hence eventually other economic resources like labour etc.. hence lower unemployment rates in short term ) is diverted to less deserving ventures in the economy which otherwise would not have taken place ( were it not for the artificial lowering of interest rates by the reserve bank ) ...... this in essence is "fat" in the economy. Eventualy to support this "fat" ( ie economic booms in stockmarkets ) the reserve needs to keep lowering interest rates etc, otherwise it will all collapse. This is what happened in japan, & recently asia. The greater the manipulation the harder the fall & economic problems, & hence the longer it takes to restorethe economies natural resource allocations levels In japan Money supply grew to such an extent by the artificial lowering of interest rates that in order to keep supporting the economy ( stockmarket ) the govt had to keep printing money, but this is only possible for so long, so then what happens is you have asset deflation ( leading to recession ) , ( eventually you get consummer deflation as incomes dwindle ) & due to the excessive money supply, coupled with the massive exsodus of capital from the country due to the asset deflation you get exchange rate depreciation., this ofcourse raises riskpremiums in the country & interest rates to attract the badly need capital for economic activity........ ie credit crunch. TELL ME .....DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR......JAPAN, ASIA ( yen, ringitt, comsumer inflation world wide ) ....& eventually the USA will succumb to this outcome.. From this we can see that unless the govts of these countries allow asset depreciation to take place & allow there ER to move freely, they are only going to draw out the pain for there countries & exacerbate the situation. Manipulation of economies ocurred mostly in malaysia & indonesia & therefore thats where most ecomonic damage has occurred. australia, singapore etc havnt been hurt at all ( comparatively ) Brent, fundamentals allow you to understand whats going on & why ( & importantly what comes next ) , its not for trading specifically on day to day basis but you can pick whats going to happen to te yen for example over..all. It allows you understand what MUST occurr & that it will EVENTUALLY occurr. Fundamental analysis is all a "framework" of assesing situations . Hope this helped Peter

kkd... Sat, Dec 5, 0:12AM CST ( -0600 GMT )

Bruce You are VERY INCORRECT in your assertions of Austrian Economics. With all rspect what you have basically described in your views of Austrian Economics is "mainstream economic" thinking, which is flawed to a very large extent. I will address the many issues & comments you have made. Firstly if you have assumed from my post that my view of the US economy is that it will head for a depression , along the lines of what Prechter has proprted for many years, you are totally mistaken. I am an Elliott technician, & a very successful one at that. However Precheter is not an Elliottician, he's a salesman. His metodology for Elliott analysis is flawed, incoherent & is what I reffer to as "loose form " elliott theory, which 95% + of the general investing community practices. He has been wrong for many years & will continue to be so for as far as I can see. He is not an Elliottician. My market outlook is very bullish on a longer time scale, but what I have purported wrt to the US economys depletion of its pool of funding remains true. As such the implications of this degeneration will evenyually manifest its self in reality by way of depression, but that will not be for many decades to come. You must understand the implications of Austrian economics wrt time. Just because an economy is in a process of degeneration ( via a depletion of its pool of funding as is the case with the US ) does not imply that economic activity & hence its financial markets will collapse during this phase. In fact it implys just the opposite, as the process of degeneration & decay is actually instigated by the manipulation of the money supply & interest rates, hence leading to an economic boom lasting many years & decades even, low unemployment etc. Only once this manipulation ceases , does the economy collapse & the implications wrt asset depriciation, capital outflows etc materialise, but until then the economy will boom. This is exactly what happened to Japan. It had a major boom with the nikkie to 40,000 etc, the manipulation ended, & look whats happened since. You state that the Japanese economy had stagnant money supply right when the economy turned south & that they should have expanded money supply. Your missed the point. The economy collapse precisely because the money suppy stagnated.... as thats when the BOJ 's manipulation had ened... thats why it collapsed. You seemed to have confused cause & effect, which is what mainstrean economists do.. Ever since then the BOJ has been lowering interest rates ( which is what you say will save the economy & is the correct thing to do ) , but in actual fact they should allow interest rates to rise, not decrease. The japanese are caught in a liquidity trap. By lowering interest rates to "save" the economy ( as I state below in the next paragraph is the "normal" thing they do ) , they actually further deplete the pool of funding & exacerbate & prolong the economic misery. They can only be saved by actually allowing increasing interest rates. This course of action will make the economy collapse quicker but it will bring about the end of the economic mailaise in the country very very much sooner. This is the optimal course of action Therefore, the superficial traits of a ( positively ) manipulated economy is that there is an economic boom in which the reserve bank has shown its head from time to time. The boom you witness is actually a wealth depleting, unsustainable economic activity. This artificial lowering of interest rates eventually causes the meltdown once the reserve/govt policy stops the manipulation, BUT what happens then is the the reserve actually keeps on lowering interset rates &/or expand themoney supply once the economy falls into recession in order to "save" it. They should actually be increasing the level of interest rates to return to availablity & alllocation of capital in the market place back to its natural level. Boom-bust cycles occurr because of reserve bank manipulation. Activities in the economy are "funded" by loose moinetary policy that do not accord with the preferences of consumers. Business responds to interest rates because they view them as the instructions of consumers to proceed with ventures, but once the reserve bank artificially lowers them & business proceeds with "unauthorised" ventures they are in fact disregarding consumer wishes. Real wealth creation can only be created , hence sustained by real savings, not by money supply manipulation. As the policy of artificially lowering of rates intensifies, it attracts more & more activities that are not approved by consumers, hence the greater the degeneration, & harder the "economic bust" once liquidation occurrs. This is what happened in 1987. You state/imply that when the fed "flooded" the economy with money it "saved" the economy. No, incorrect. What that was, was the Fed being manipulative further deplateing the pool of funding in the US, because it not only supported the "unauthorised" business ventures at the time but actally has promoted more such ventures because of the increase in money supply. Sure the economic boom continues, but thats all it is, just a boom, it aint sustainable & will force a massive econimic contraction eventually An increase in money supply manifests its self in a booming financial market, increasing GDP, increasinging incomes & consumer expenditure etc as it has done, & gives the impression that all is hunky-dory. The FEDS 1987 ACTION WAS JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE MANIPULATION.. Interset rates should have been allowed to rise inorder to "kill off" the economic fat & return the economies capital allocation to its proper levels. The short term pain of such action would greatly outweigh the disastourous effects of the latter collapse as it would be bigger & herder eventually. Look at japan. You seeem to support reserve bank intervention in a qulaified way, such as in 1987, but this is flawed main stream economic thinking again. Reserve banks cannot navigate economies, they can only disrupt the normal allocation & flow of consumer preferences & dictates, thats why THE ULITIMATE RESERVE BANK IS ONE WHICH IS NON-EXISTENT. Reserve banks create boom-bust cycles economies by controlling money supply. They can control GDP etc but this is meaningless. GDP is just a statistically flawed calculation of final goods in the economy, it has nothing to do with wealth creation. . If there was not gov't interventoion at all , there will be no boom-bust cycles, just consistent, sustainable, indefinate wealth creation. This is whats happening in the US. The boom in the economy is borne out of the artificial lowering of interest rate & money suppy manipulation. The boom can/will last for many more decades primarily because the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency. As you mention US dollars are expatriated overseas , & hence normal inflationary pressures which would have normally caused the reserve bank to raise interest rates ( ie end the manipulaion & bring about the onset of the collapse ) will not materialise for a very extended period of time. ( what would happen if demand overseas dried up a little for US dollars, such may well be the case when the EURO POTENTIALLY becomes prominent. In any case US dollar satuartion is eventually likely in some time frame ) This allows the manipulation to continue for a very long time, but it does not mean that the US economy is healthy, infact it implies that it is excessively degenerate & decayed because of it. It is where the Japan economy was in the mid 1980's.. Your comments about what should have happened in Japan is short-term thinking , in that proper wealth creation is irrelevant to you. There is no use in economic expansion if wealth creation is not present & more importantly non sustainable over a long period of time. Likewise for you 1929 comments. Further your remarks justifying Greenspans actions due to your naive "baby boomers" statement is false. Earnings, incomes etc are representative of wealth creation, they are readily the by-product of money supply manipulation. eg, losse monetary policy in displayed by rising corporate profits, earnings, & supposedly "healthy consumer indicators. That 's not wealth creation, thats just paper money. It may come as a shock to you seeing as you support manipulative reserve bank practices in "saving' economies, but the absolute financial system is one which is based upon a PURE Gold standard. Thr prior gold staandard that as present this century was not Pure. In this way absolute market efficiency can prevail & inflation in economies will be non-existent, hence allowing for solid sustainable long term wealth creation. This discussion has deviated substantially from trading, & i thinkit best to leave it there Regards Peter Karaguleski [KKD] Krueger Klage Derivatives

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:37 - ID#348257)
space ....the last, er, ummm, hmmm
Allow me to attempt to put this "space" thingie to rest for all you amateur ( and professional ) physicists out there in Kitco land. Let us look at "space" from a metaphysical point of view, and define it in all its abstract glory. "Space" - TRUE Space, is that from which all things manifest. And that, seemingly, in which all things reside. Things must have a "place" ( abstractly speaking, of course ) in which to manifest, and we like to call that "space." However, it is being discovered each day, each decade, that what we have heretofore called "space" is not quite the emptyness we imagined in our empirical conceit. What appeared to be emptyness has been revealed as a sea of matter of merely a finer state ( or substate if you wish ) . As light interpenetrates air, as air interpenetrates water, as water interpenetrates earth.

So what "space" are we talking about? The pure, true, theoretical space we seem to be seeking is actually NO THING. For if all things manifest from NO THING ( as they inevitably must ) then that in which this process takes place - "space" - is actuall NO THING. It is not matter, it is not force, it is not "anywhere," it is not "everywhere." It is NO THING.

Therefore, true space does not exist, yet it is the foundational SUBSTANCE of all that is manifest. For everything comes from it.
It is the Ayin, the void, of the old testament and the Hebrew Kabalists. It is the NO THING from which we have all come, and the NO THING to which all matter will return.

But not consciousness...

but that is another story.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:39 - ID#20359)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a a word...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:40 - ID#153110)
@Computer Done Manufacturing
The development of the computer as an extension of not merely man's memory but of his making hand, as well, is profoundly destablising. It parallels a previous development of machines replacing the hand in agricultural work. This development would pose no problem to a world of substance for substance finance, but it portends disaster for a financial world built on credit. In a world of substance for substance finance lower manuafcturing costs simply increase the purchasing power of everyone's substantial store of value, unit of account, and medium of exchange. In a world of credit finance, it means defaults. It means destruction of stored value because the promises of payment upon which the value depends will be impossible to keep. The fact the making-capable computers will be acquired with borrowed funds ( i.e. credit ) instead of with saved funds ( i.e. capital ) will accelerate their proliferation and the destruction of finance which they will cause. If Y2K does not prevent it, it will make the wave from the Asian contagion look like a ripple by comparison.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:41 - ID#411259)
..... Mike .....

Once again, you have cut through the BS
And offered us a picture that WORKS

All is exactly as you describe
As much as the indescribable could be

Ain't "NO THING" but a thang


(Sat Dec 05 1998 14:51 - ID#153110)
@I am You and You are Me and We are all together in the "estalishement". Yeah, right.
Truth in Media Web site:
Truth in Media's GLOBAL WATCH Bulletin 98/12-2 3-Dec-98

By Barry Chamish

JERUSALEM - The forces who wish to create a New World Order ( NWO ) based on
a One World government, long ago realized that to destroy a nation's
sovereignty, it was not enough to merely corrupt its diplomacy; they must
also enjoy the overwhelming leverage that comes with controlling its
economy. So, through the World Bank and International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , they have planted compliant administrators throughout the governments of the world: in Israel their current agent is the Chairman of the Bank Of Israel, Yaacov Frenkel.

Typically, the World Bank loans many billions of dollars at high interest
rates to a Third World dictator to fund some hare-brained engineering
scheme. Within a few years much of the money is in the tyrant's offshore
bank accounts and the megalomaniacal engineering scheme is draining his
country of all its resources. Unable to return the World Bank loan, the
dictator's government turns to the IMF for a covering loan. The IMF agrees to indebt the country even more and keep it temporarily fed by demanding a series of "reforms" guaranteed to sink the people into pathetic misery.
These "reforms" come in the form of making the economy more "efficient" by such measures as turning a working variable peasant-based agricultural
economy into a one-crop producer, thus throwing most of the peasants out of work, enslaving the remainder on corporate plantations, and thoroughly
wrecking the country when natural disaster or a drop in the commodities
market strikes.

By controlling the nation's economy, the NWO inherits control of its
independent diplomacy. In Israel, in the early 1980s, the NWO retaliated
against the honorable and independent Prime Minister, Menachem Begin by
shooting the inflation rate up to 450%. The men who arranged this from
within the government were Bank of Israel Chairman Michael Bruno and
Finance Minister Yoram Aridor. Bruno justified a series of measures by
Aridor guaranteed to cause instant inflation, including the sudden and
unexpected lifting of most duties on imported goods. Both men were rewarded well for their treachery: Aridor, against all natural reason, was made Israel's United Nations ambassador and Bruno retired to the good life at the IMF.

In 1991, the Shamir government was forced to appoint as Chairman of the
Bank of Israel, Yaacov Frenkel, a World Bank executive based in Washington, who had not lived in the country since 1967. Once in his post, Frenkel wasted no time indebting Israel enormously by raising interest rates and encouraging the government to request $10 billion dollars in loans from American banks guaranteed by the Federal Reserve, nominally to be used to absorb a wave of Russian immigrants flooding the country. Economists later figured out that the loans were disastrous and would cost triple the principle before they were paid back.

In 1996, Frenkel's first term ended and then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres
was not inclined to offer him a second chance to run the nation's finances. He changed his mind quickly when a power-delegation from the World Economic Forum arrived from Switzerland and had a few convincing words with him.

If Frenkel's NWO ties were ever in doubt, take a look at the biography of
Frenkel which appeared in Haaretz Magazine of Nov. 27, 1998:

 "During his third year at university, Frenkel went to work for the

Israel's communist national Labor Union and the primary economic blackmail tool employed by the Labor Party.

 "Tel Aviv University offered him a chance to earn a doctorate at the
University of Chicago and then return to Israel to set up a School of

My, wasn't that a big step forward, offering a whole school of economics to a Histadrut worker without even a PhD, let alone professorship?

 "After Frenkel got his doctorate in 1970, Chicago offered him a spot as
professor. In 1973, when David Rockefeller retired from Chase Manhattan,
the bank decided to commemorate his life's work by endowing a professorship in international economics. A search committee set up by the bank chose the University of Chicago and Frenkel to set up the chair."

How wonderful for Frenkel! Not three years at the U of C and David
Rockefeller, chairman of the Council On Foreign Relations and possibly the top man in the NWO, chooses to employ Frenkel to run his new chair.

 "`It was the Mecca of the global economy,' says Frenkel. `It was a huge
factory for doctoral students, catering to hundreds of students from all
over the world, who now fill the most senior positions in their countries.' And so Frenkel cast his net. All over the world are former students who consider Frenkel their guru."

Thank you, Dr. Frenkel for that marvelous summation of the tactics and
location of world globalism. Clearly, Frenkel is either a naive tool of the NWO, placing moles in the governments of the world, or he is already an insider willingly doing its worst work.

The following story, told by Frenkel, illustrates just what kind of circle he moves in. It took place in 1991 in Davos, Switzerland. Davos,
Switzerland is headquarters of the World Economic Forum, where the NWO
plots its next international economic fiascoes. Frenkel then relates how
three of his fans who he met there soon took over the senior government
economic posts of Czechoslovakia and ran the country based on his
principles. He failed to mention that within a year Czechoslovakia had
divided into two.

 "In late 1986, Frenkel was asked by the International Monetary Fund to
set up a framework for coordinating international economic policy. That
same year the G-5 ( later G-7 ) decided to set up a new global policy forum
and added two new members. Frenkel took on the task and moved his family to an upscale suburb of Washington."

 "Frenkel's stategies helped to integrate the global economy and the
international coordination apparatus that he conceived became a prestigious body wielding a great deal of influence. Frenkel moved on to the post of director of research at the IMF, which then had 150 member states ( there are now close to 200 ) and was responsible for generating forecasts and assessments of the world's economy. `In the framework of the G-7 , I became the close confidante of top policy-makers in the seven states, at the level of finance ministers, central bank governors and heads of state. In order to get my advice, they had to put complete trust in me and open all their books for me.'"

Yaacov Frenkel is no ordinary bureaucrat in wire-framed glasses. He is at
the top ranks of NWO administrators and his first loyalty is to globalism, then, if at all, to Israel's economic welfare. If Prime Minister Netanyahu steps too far out of line for his NWO controllers, Frenkel can make the days of Begin's 450% inflation seem like the good old days. The Chairman of The Bank Of Israel, is possibly the most dangerous individual in the country.
Barry Chamish is an Israeli journalist. He is also author of the book
about the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, "Traitors and Carpetbaggers in
the Promised Land," Hearthstone Publishing, Oklahoma City, OK.

Bob Djurdjevic

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:03 - ID#348257)
Brother Mozel - if, as you say, concerning debt and the computer: " the promises of payment upon which the value depends will be impossible to keep," does that imply that either we will have to get rid of computers ( not too likely, I think you'll agree ) or will there arise a new ( or old ) means by which debt may be structured. I can hardly imagine a world WITHOUT some kind of borrowing and lending, so what do you see as the form that will evolve ( after the total collapse of civilization as we know it, of course ) ? And what role do you see gold playing? In a relatively brief answer, if you please. My mind is not as sharp as many here with whom you are used to either jousting or enlightening. Gracias amigo.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:03 - ID#373403)
Gagnrad-I agree that having gotten my hands dirty with hand carving wax gives me the perspective or as you say meditation which will help me immensely in designing on the computer. Hand carving trains the mind to see the three dimensions as it happens and to adapt in mid progress. It is immediate feedback whereas in 3D solid modeling I think you must have the complete image in mind and work towards it. Those who have not carved by hand in the future may find that 3D modeling is mechanical and devoid of the creative process.

I plan to teach my kids the hard way so that they appreciate the easy way. That is how I learned at Paris Junior College in Texas. I remember one of my fellow students asking the teacher why we had to make a particular setting by hand when it could be ordered from a supply house. He eventually failed out.

We spent an entire semester learning bright cutting with hand engravers and I have not used these methods in eight years since but I have used the skills derived from it.

Envy-The service bureaus charge $200 to make waxes for you. I want the machine myself.

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:04 - ID#24135)
that was no trout ...
..more like a pop eyed dogfish ..

But I'd call it a BITE ..

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:15 - ID#348257)
John Disney
let it take the float under deep before you set the hook.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:16 - ID#348257)
John Disney
really appreciated your "touch of Magritte." Made my day. Where's my bowler and umbrella?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:23 - ID#187109)
Saturday Morning cartoons
Kitco is better than Bugs-Bunny on Saturdays.........indeedy. Now I must go hang lights and make merry........ ( a western thing ya know ) .............och aye!!

th-th-th-that's all folks!! ( porky-pig ) eheheheheheheheheh!!! ( bugs ) wascally wabbits abound.........Bugs eats 24 carrot gold.................hmmmmmmmmm...........

Tol#1 - shukriya! G&P to ya..........always........



nick@C - I printed that classic antipode talk and I am sending it to TeddO for went right over my head ( swoooosh ) told me........I think............. ( ohmy ) ............ ( ugh ) .............

aurator - I will share my paddock with one and all......fenceless..................... ( with home-brew in hand ) ....................... ( slaking thirsts ) ...................

go gold!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:30 - ID#339274)
QTR has good volume to be read on the hourly chart of ,the MACD-Hist will give you the picture.Good luck.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:34 - ID#187109)
Bart.....and all........
I'm still waiting for those official #'s regarding the Mountie........ya know, melt down and remaining supply and stuff.

All - Gold down? or gold up? or new lows? hmmmmmm?

The Hatt - I already have your vote.........the same as last week.....and the week before...........etc. ;- ) prepare for parade-of-lights..........our Co. has a 'float'............ ( well, it's a Van with neon lights and blaster speakers and small children with great big smiles ) ............. ( and blender of course ) ...... ( for the bigger 'kids' ) ......... ( grin ) .........I love this time of on x-mas day in bermuda shorts.................smoking BIG cigars............'gambling-all-the-way' ( sung to jingle-bells ) is good...........right Spudders???????????!?


(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:35 - ID#153110)
I can imagine a world without borrowing and lending. It would be a world of saving and investment, investment being joint venture for dividends. It was not that long ago that "Neither a borrower nor a lender be" was the loving, sound advice of a father to a son.

Debt which has become unpayable because earnings expectations were based on false assumptions about future sales price can be either written off or paid by a new loan due further in the future. It's just basic bankruptcy procedure. The same thing that is going on with Russian, Brazilian, and Asian debt even now. I don't know how long the credit as money system can extend itself. I just know usury always destroys its worshippers in the end. It's in the numbers.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:41 - ID#255284)
It pisces me off that I'm not fishing right now.
Mike SHeller
Ohhh, I thought RandLord Disney was talking about Maigret. Very confusing, this gold site.

And how easy to distract kitcovites from goldfishing with red herrings in a vaccuum sauce and a golden trout that noone can see, save those who know Richard Brautigan's opus. ( here kitty kitty )

Au_producer can tell some great fishin' yarns from the Taupo and Bay of Plenty fisheries of nz. There ain't no 'fences to be seen thereabouts, , and the trout are fat and tasty. The salmon are about to run in the S Island rivers and I need crients down there, by gum.


Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:56 - ID#348257)
when I said I can't imagine a world without borrowing and lending, I meant that while I can conjure anything in my head ( thinking is mostly free ) , I did not expect to have the world follow suit. I have my own ideal concepts regarding what humanity should be thinking and doing, but they are best left off this forum. I have enough trouble approaching those ideals myself. While I have a certain sympathy for the ideal you and Bill Shakespeare posit regarding debt, given the imperfections of the world, I must stand aside and allow consenting adults to make their own contractual agreements. And they will. Perhaps the devil WILL take the hindmost. Or maybe just extend the loan. So I guess we just continue using computers and muddle along? And here I thought there was something apocalyptic about the scenario you saw looming. Back to my horoscopes to look for earthquakes and volcanoes then. Nature rarely lets us down the way humans do.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 15:56 - ID#206235)
@ Sheller
Now yet talkin man! But you almost got us beyond physics and into metaphysics, yes? However, I must say your post was far more "Illuminating" on this "matter" of light travel through partial voids than some.

( PS I thought the Hebrew word for nothingness, uh formless and void thingie was Tohu and Bohu?? )

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:02 - ID#348257)
Bug-al (actually, it sounds
kinda Hebrew when I type it like that - Bug-al, son of Bug-al. Bug-al Ben Bug-al. I will try to check out them Hebrew words.

Anyhow, that WAS metaphysics man! You know me, I skip over the physics and go for the meta-physics! I'm spending the day painting a piece of ceiling. Trying to match the damn color is enough to send the mind into other realms. Woulda taken less time doing the whole thing. You sure Michelangelo started this way? Next I'm gonna paint the dog.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:05 - ID#255284)
While there is no tax on thinking. Thinking is taxing, indeedy. It kinda stuffs you, in a taxidermicological way.
Even Lurky is getting into the gastronomy now, talking about tofu.

Hmm, talking about tofu.....

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:10 - ID#373403)
If I were to take a loan to buy this machine then my good loan would replace the old guards bad loan. What you are implying with your thesis that this technology is destableizing to the markets is true but all change towards efficiency makes worthless the old technology and the loans supporting it.

Would you have it any other way?

Besides, I dont like to support the bankers so I am planning to pay cash when gold goes up. Maybe by then the recession will have begun and I can pick up a used one from a bankruptcy sale.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:13 - ID#43349)
from no thing comes all things
That which is without form or void, of which no word can be spoken, comes the many.

For convenience we utter Tao, but the utterance is meaningless for the Tao is beyond all meaning.

Without Yang there is no Yin, without the positive there is no negative.

Sum all that originated and the grand total is no thing.

If all the world were white, we would have no word for white, nor even the concept of it.

Behind the foreground stands the background.

Even an eternity is less than an instatnt.

John Disney
(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:16 - ID#24135)
The persistence of Mammeries
gone fishin in a Dali landscape for a golden Bugalfish ..
.. this fish will rise to anything .. what sport..

( this is not a posting )

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:25 - ID#290226)
Happy Holidays
Merry Christmas to all!

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:32 - ID#280214)
Of Markers and Gold and Beef Jerky
Monetary units of exchange which do not have much intrinsic value, like chits, are only calls on another person's products or services. Thus they are "debt" as in the monetary note. Such notes can be used to "demand" services or products that somebody somewhere owes the bearer of that note. Thus the note itself has no other intrinsic worth other than as a "marker" which can be called in.
A "store of value" - if the value is only a future call on someone's services or products and has little intrinsic value otherwise is not much different from fiat paper.
Gold, for the most part, meets both of the above definitions since it has little intrinsic value except for its jewelry or minor industrial or dental utility. When proponents of Gold say its value derives from its utility as "store of value" or a unit of exchange to be "cashed in" someday for goods and services then Gold is, fundamentally, "debt" - and thus only better than fiat paper to the degree that it can be used for jewelry or dental fillings.
A store of value like beef jerky is not entirely "debt" to be cashed in for someone else's labor because beef jerky has substantial intrinsic value to the owner thereof - it can be eaten to provide sustenance ( unlike Gold ) .
Of course the above argument is blasphemy to the ears of Goldbugs.
Question - Do Goldbugs derive their sustenance from Gold or Beef Jerky?
Are Gold Dental fillings just leftover stands stuck between the teeth like pieces of errant beef?

P.S. One advantage of Gold over paper fiat money - it can not be created out of thin air or base metals - yet.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:42 - ID#348257)
Don't quote me, as I am not an expert here, and my Hebrew is quite rusty ( to say the very least ) but I have just looked at Rabbi Samson Raphael Hirsch's translation of the Old Testament and in Genesis, the very 2nd verse, "Tohu" and "Bohu" appear to mean "confused and tangled." That is to say - After the first verse, "From the beginning, God created the heaven and the earth," the bible goes on to say that the initial creation was a turmoil over which darkness hung. It goes on to say "the Breath of God hovered over the waters." Now in occult lore, "waters" is often a generally descriptive word for "matter." The metaphysics of all cultures recognizes this in some form or other. So, for instance, Buddha teaches that all is "Maya" or "illusion" because matter is the dead form of a living essence which is spirit and truth. "Mary", or the Virgin Mary, and "Mare" ( Mah-ray, the latin root word for "sea" ) are also descriptive of the "water" of matter, or sea of matter, from which the earth and universe, out here, and within, and the beings thereon, are all sculpted.

The "Virgin" Mare ( Mary ) ( ( In Buddhism it is "the Virgin Maya" ) ) ( ( Matter ) ) is impregnated with the spirit of God, and the perfection of the original earth appears ( Gan Eden - the Garden of Eden, etc ) . The perfect Man, Adam Kadmon, lives upon the perfect earth, until, as we are all aware, he is split into Male and Female ( Yod and Cheva, Adam and Eve ) giving us YodCheva, or Jehovah - the God of Nature. This means that the lower worlds and eventually the human earth are dreamed into being for the sustenance of the fallen Adam and Eve, just as the perfect Archetypal world has been dreamed into existence by the thoughts of God. We humans are just the cosmic dropouts, is all. But there IS a way back. Not for today's lesson though.

So Tohu, Bohu describe the initial confusion of the "clay" of matter, the jumbled cosmic "leggo" set that God first brings into being OUT OF NOTHING, in a tangled mess. Then God crafts His universe ( s ) from it with the Breath of intelligence and spirit force.

That's about what I get from Tohu Bohu. Yes, LGB, very metaphysical indeed.

In the beginning...there was metaphysics! It will be there in the end too.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:44 - ID#348257)
now yer talkin' I love beef jerky.

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:45 - ID#348257)
you sure have away with words

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:48 - ID#286224)
Just waiting for Disney's Law to kick in

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:48 - ID#266105)
speaking of Magritte

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:53 - ID#43349)
Not all is maya
What is is.

The rest is maya.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:58 - ID#43349)
Essence and counter essence
Electron and positron.

Electric and magnetic.

Photon and companion of the pair.

Yin and yang.

Without the one can not be the other.

two hands to clap.

From what are the pairs made?

What is the sound of ONE hand clapping?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 16:58 - ID#431200)
Gold Shares URL
########1 ) ########2 ) ########3 ) ########4 ) ########5 ) ########6 ) ########7 ) ########8 ) ########9 ) ########10 )> ########11 ) ########12 ) ########13 ) ########14 ) ########15 ) ########16 ) ########17 ) ########18 ) ########19 ) ########20 ) ########21 ) ########22 ) ########23 )

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:09 - ID#255284)
Beautiful Dreamer.
"A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his
punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world."
- Oscar Wilde

On a moon-bathed lily a frog farts.

Thin Long & Hard On This
(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:14 - ID#359307)
12, 12

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:14 - ID#43460)
TheMissingLink Faith is restored!
I hope they learn well! I think all it takes is the proper motivation. ( As we write my youngest is out at the garage casting a pewter figurine to sit atop his model of the Lighthouse of Alexandria for a school project. )

Did you know that European artists developed a mechanical method of sculpting hundreds of years ago? They would make up a frame into which they would place the artist's model. They would then take measurements from fixed points on the frame then multipy them by scale factors and transfer them to a larger frame. They would drill to the specified measurements then have an apprentice chip out the marble until he reached the ends of the drill holes. Vouila! instant art!

But I've thought of one more minor argument. As a for instance I am working on a pig out of soft wax, which when finished will contain about 4 ounces of silver. ( Actually, to be technical it is a razorback hog, which, for those from other lands, is a religious icon in parts of the midwestern US. Other areas worship an ugly hound dog, an even uglier bulldog or even a fat old elephant but that is another story. ) But I find that as it is being built up that I have a chance to modify it from the original design. How will you hold the wax in hand and build it up once it is CAD/CAMmed?

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:18 - ID#206235)
Bill C and Santa....overheard at the mall
Took my little one to the mall to make her request to Santa...

Quite shockingly, there was Bill Clinton sitting on Santa's lap. Overheard....

Santa.... "Well Bill, have you been good or bad?"

Bill.... "That all depends on how you define the word GOOD"

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:23 - ID#206235)
@ John D...Still not interested
Still notvery interested in that pathetic, shriveled up, little gangrenous worm you present as "bait"...but keep trying. After all , baiting is one of the VERY few things you're good fact I reckon you're a

MASTER baiter.

The Hatt
(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:31 - ID#294232)
The Carlin Trend/ Junior Companies/ Area Play/ VSE
There has been much discussion on Nevada being the next major area play for Junior Gold Companies so I decided to do my homework on Coral Gold, Claimstaker Resources and White Knight Resources. If you would like to read my research on these Companies please email and I will send you the reports. I would post them however they are quite long and I donot want to take up the space for a subject that may have limited interest. My email address is I understand that MIQ and Kinross have a joint venture as well, if anyone has more detailed information on their Nevada project I would appreciate getting it. Thanks in advance.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:37 - ID#43460)

Mike Sheller
(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:42 - ID#348257)
Thin long and hard on this
I suppose you meant to say "THINK long and hard on this" but "thin long and hard" seems a little raw for a forum on which people of all sexes and ages attend. Please repent immediately.

However, the number 12 is very much an occult subject and you are to be praised for your deft summation of all that Kitcoites of various "scientific" persuasions have been attempting ( vainly ) to unravel. The number 12 holds the KEY to so many things, that only an esoteric astrologer can comprehend the GOLDMINE of information contained therein. Keep up the good work.
Let's hear more from you.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 17:48 - ID#201145)
analysis results using Kitco discussion thread theory
The tread currently with subject headings "Clinton" or derivatives of same:

Will continue in a sideways formation trading back and forth between Clinton is bad but Star is worse and Clinton is the devil. This will continue in a defaltionary spiral until only two participents are left discussing the thread, both of which will agree totally with one another yet be unable to notice this.

The thread regarding physics, Nasa, the number 42 and reality as we know it: This thread has evolved rapidly into a fragmentary pattern. Critical resistance was encountered when RJ refused to argue the subject matter. However due to the fragmentation, the thread has broken thorugh this critical resistanc. A turning point in the trend has been reached with the recent post clarifying the definition of vaccum, nothingness and Space. This has resulted in a fundemental shift in the comittment of discussors. The new trend will include various cultural understandings of "nothingness" and "creation from nothingness" Anticipate new inputs from the fields of theology to include Judaistic, Hindu, and Buddist traditions as well as a decent showing of early Christianity both universal and gnostic. There will be significant convergence of the fragments in an ultimate post which will contain the text "The great mysteries of the Creator are manifested in all sincere traditions" or the text "then all is not" At this point the tread will terminate in Nirvana.

The thread on gold: will continue as new inputs enter the stream of kitco discussion. Significant developments may include: debt default, central bank buying/selling, currency warfare, and production information. This thread will continue, as gold is forever.

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:03 - ID#295111)
Hedge Funds Under Investigation - @Pete, @The Priest
The Domino Effect is still with us... One hedge fund falling causes all other to fall. That's whay AG had to stop it. But it now appears, they can't and Clinton is looking for a Scapegoat.

I'm not good with poems so I though I'd distort a bible passage to make a point ....


The POG will rise from the dead. No one knows, however, when that day and hour will come - neither the angels in heaven, nor the sons of man; the master of the universe alone knows.

The rise in the POG from the dead will come and be like in the days of Noah. In the days before the flood, people ate and drank, up to the very day when Noah went into the boat; yet they did not realize what was happening intil the flood came and swept them away. Unlike these fornicators, TRUE gold bugs are prepared and have entered the ark like Noah, but like an ark made of GOLD!

That is how it will be when the POG rises from the dead. At that time, two men will be working in the field, one will be left broke, the other with GOLD.

WATCH OUT THEN!! Because you do not really know when the POG will rise from the DEAD. So then, you must always be ready, because the rise in the POG may come at an hour when you are not expecting.


(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:03 - ID#18355)
goldfinger on tonight ...tbs superstation
all kitco folk should turnoff the terminals and just sit down and watch mr. goldfinger and oddjob have their way with mr. bond for awhile.

remember, you have to be able to out-fox a fox in this game. "oh, thats too bad, that means i win the game and the match, tough luck goldfinger"

(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:04 - ID#18355)
url is

15 days of 007, starting tonight...goldfinger

Tantalus Rex
(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:10 - ID#295111)
When I had to pick my handle for this site, I wanted to be called GOLDFINGER... ended up choosing Tantalus Rex.

Even though GOLDFINGER is one of the bad guys in that 007 movie, it was his love to prop up the POG that must be admired. MAYBE his method/plan was deplorable, but who is without sin?

The Man With The Golden Gun was another goldbug of sorts.

I love Bond movies...

(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:11 - ID#201145)
Mike Sheller can you email me?
You seem to have an understanding of mystical things and I think astrology. Now, I have no faith in astrology, but in checking into the things that mozel was posting, I came across a site that claims that NASA's space shots are coincidental with various astrological signs involving the constellation Orion.

I downloaded a freeware star charting program and attempted to verify using the dates time and coordinates mentioned on a Richard Hoaglands website. I was unable to verify Mr. Hoaglands data. However this could be because I am terribly unfamiler with astronomy, astrology and mystical thought in general. Or it could be due to my improper use of the software I was using. Or it could be that Hoaglands claims are unfounded. Anyhow, since you have some understanding of these things, I would like to discuss his claims with you and see if there is a way I can at least in my own mind confirm or deny what he is saying about NASA.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:20 - ID#255284)
A pig as a religious icon? Is this anything like the snake churches I've heard about in the Bible belt? Only the evil are bitten and die?
What a great idea: a silver pig. I hope you post a picture when the pig finished.

(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:28 - ID#220325)
Envy-- Do you have the names & or Url's for the prototype
shops you were mentioning??


(Sat Dec 05 1998 18:33 - ID#220325)
Missinglink, Gagnrad, Envy regarding your artistic abilities
If at any time you wish to diversify from jewelery making you may want to consider either wood or stone carving. I have done both and should you need helpful suggestions I would be glad to attempt to assist you. The Talents you have would be admirably suited to these mediums.