I did miss my fix of Kitco. What happened? Anyone know?

This has been a Kitcoholic withdrawl test. If you tried more than 10 times to get into Kitco today, you're a serious case.

Like me.
-EJ

Welcome back. Aparantly it was a wiring thing. I wish they'd come up with something original, or at least invent an explanation that would make one think that they're light years ahead of other ISPs in technology.

Bart Kitner: Thanks! I much prefer the more controlled dialogue of this site. I had forgotten what it was once like before you applied a few rules. Same thing applies to all of human behavior, doesn't it?

A few basic rules are needed. The problem is knowing what the minimum rules are to function.

Our ( US ) government imposes too many rules and regulations -- growing day by day -- and stifling generally small free interprise.

Our international derivatives markets are essentially a 'free for all', and likely to bring the world's financial system to its knees before any serious international regulation is set up.

The last I remember, Aldebaran was asking me about Hoagland's contentions that NASA used certain "astrological" dates/coordinates/fixes for certain activities. This idea was, I believe, possibly instigated by a comment from Mozel ( it figures ) . My take on the Kitco downer is that the powers that be ( the ones who run the world, have driven down the price of gold, and are creating a one-world picnic for themselves at the enslavement of me and you ) were getting very ansty that I might just crack their little astrological code for the dominance of the entire universe. They have given up on space since they can't define it. Thus, these powers conspired to shut down Kitco and get to me before I could tell Aldebaran what I knew. Truth is that I am simply a lowly horoscope analyst who can only do magic with a date, time, and place of incorporation, and not the kind of stuff Hoagland is dealing with, or Mozel is alluding to, or the powers that run the world employ to enslave us all. Whatever you do, don't give them your TIME of birth.

PS, just for safety sake, I am holed up in a secret hideaway at our placer gold mine in Alaska. They don't call it Coldfoot for nothing. Where's my Martini glass...

.... Then again, if we're truly free; we're free to go to hell in a manner of our own choosing. Yes?

I do repent, but as it happens, my registered handle was, once, Think
Long & Hard... which you will see if you go back far enough in the
archives... either Kitco has suffered bit rot and lost the 'k', or a
programmer is having a laugh at my expense. I hope someone at Kitco
with the necessary tools can fix it some day.

Your interpretation - given little to go on - of 12, 12 was most
impressive. Actually 12, 12 refers to the common practice of testing
microphones by saying "one, two" - nevertheless 12 is, mathematically
speaking, an interesting number as it includes the
factors 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6. It would be a very good basis for
counting- but for our 10 fingers it would be better than 10 which only
has the factors 1, 2 and 5.

There are of course 12 troy ounces ( 0.031,103,476,8 kg ) in a troy pound,
the unit of mass by which the precious is measured.

Incidentally, Number 12, as you may know, in Tarot refers to the Hanged
Man. This symbolises stasis, immobility, plans stymied...
in fact how appropriate to gold, stuck in a narrow trading range
a bit less than $300/oz. Hmmm... I wonder if the cards can tell us
where gold is going to go- put aside TA, Elliott waves, fundamentals
and Kondratieff theory for the moment...

So, here is a Tarot reading for gold ( by the Celtic Cross, Mr Sheller! )

Progress in the POG has been conspicuously lacking of late... one
suspects subterfuge and guile is keeping it down. This is signalled
by the Empress card for the current position. Gold bulls are
constantly harassed, by artifices such as CB gold sale announcements,
low lease rates and hedge fund short positions.

The current situation is influenced- perhaps in a "behind the scenes"
kind of way- by calimities and unexpected events- hedge fund troubles
come to mind- and it may be necessary for the investment community
before long to come to terms with a breaking away from old ways. This,
we see from the Tower, card 16, 'crossing' the present.

Gold's ultimate goal is marked by the Devil card- number 15,
signifying perhaps a violent upheaval- the whole financial status
quo is at risk. Massive debt default, loss of confidence in paper,
a rush to the ultimate save haven that overturns all existing
fiat currency systems- only by ultimate risk to the prevailing
order will gold benefit as it is the only currency that is
nobody's debt.

In the past, for countless thousands of years, gold has been the
bedrock and foundation of stable financial systems. The Tarot
card "Temperance" signals moderation and frugality, a monetary
system backed by gold is protected from the worst excesses of
money creation by fiat.

Recent events as illustrated by Death, card no. 13, are marked by
change of events, failure, loss and destruction, and what better
description of the sudden failure of prosperity in South Asia in
1997 and then, Russia, and Latin America?

What of the future? Influence from "The Emperor", card 4, suggests
that gold will regain power and authority as a stable store of
wealth. Gold's stability, financial authority, indomitable spirit
throughout countless years will be recognised by those who seek
to preserve their wealth through extremes of financial destruction.

Those who seek knowledge of gold's fortune through astrology or
Tarot, like the High Priestess, seek wisdom and understanding
yet lack patience with orthodox methods. Gold, in an
environment of guile, trickery and misleading deception ( The Magician )
flounders at historic lows. Deep inside, goldbugs fear
that their emotional attachment to gold ( The Fool ) is folly for their
loss in prematurely foregoing the common stock boom. The Fool, however,
is not attached dogmatically to commonly held beliefs such as
"the stock markets always go up and falls are short lived". The Fool
is making a new start, and will be first to benefit when the "greater
fool" in stocks sees the bubble burst.

Finally, the Wheel of Fortune ( no. 10 ) tells us that all things are
governed by cycles, and while it is true that gold has been in a
prolonged decline and stocks have been marching upward for some time
there will come a time when the wheel of fortune comes full circle,
and paper gains in the stock markets and elsewhere will enter a
prolonged bear market... gold, oil, commodities in general, that
is to say tangible 'stuff', will turn to a bull market as a new
cycle begins. I do not need Tarot cards to tell me this,
all the signs are there for those who look behind the news
to see the bigger picture and are not hypnotised by the belief that
stocks will continue to go up at rates typified by the recent
bull market.

As Envy might say, never listen to Think Long & Hard on This for
investment advice.

RE:

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981206.170001.mike_shel.htm



I'm sorry, I didn't mean the bring the wrath of the thought police down upon you and all the other kitcoites. I shall withdraw the question concerning NASA.

Hoagland strikes me as a serious nut. He thinks the US govt has hyper-dimensional space craft of some sort. I was just checking into his most plausible theory and I just couldn't verify even that.

( see we are good conformists, we won't rock the boat, gold is bad dollars are good! )

Anyhow tomorrow ought to be interesting on his website. He has been saying that some sort of probe or ship will make contact on Dec 7, 1998.

a date which has a certain significance in the US.

one of my email addresses is aldebaran_rising@yahoo.com



I sortof suspect something will happen with the price of gold Monday, but I don't know much of anything anyway.

I guess I should put a url in the first line?

I recall your previous handle so that I did not notice the transformation. After I read your post and tool a more careful look at tit, my wife came into my orfice to see what was making me laugh so hard and long.
-EJ

Now this is more of the Kitco I remember when I first found it. Got to love it. LGB, are you taking your homeopathic platinum? : )

Could please post the URL of that star charting program or
send me an e-mail
user787748@aol.com

...thanks

Interesting article in today's New York Times. You may have to register to get this but it's free.

http://search.nytimes.com/search/daily/bin/fastweb?getdoc+site+iib-site+26+2+wAAA+brazil

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9812/06/human.rights.50/index.html

Suffered withdrawl. Glad we're back.

I'm buying some Feb $300 Calls this week. You know just a few like 60 or so. Get set for some fun! Glad Kitco is back up.

There weren't any, Kitco was down.

of the day. Anybody know whats up?
TIA

Pinky's Tailing Box: St. Nicholas Day Edition...

Fox IMF Sundays presents:

The Green Bay Packers Vs. The Wall St. Giants.

Pat Summerall: The Packers, wearing the gold uniforms, have won
the coin toss and have elected to receive.

Mad N: Nowadays they flip an official IMF coin to start the games.
It used to be they'd use a Susan B. Anthony dollar, but they had
to stop because the guys on the field thought they were only
playing one quarter.

Sumerall: The opening boot is high and end over end. Peter Munk, number
49,
fields the POGskin at the gold line and follows his
hedge of blockers forward selling out to the 30.0 yard line.
The crowd is on its feet already.

Mad N: Packer fans have always been irrationally exhuberant.
But given past experience, they shouldn't have expected too
much gain this year after losing the Super Gold in January.

Summerall: Yes, 13 of the last 14 times the National Conference
has lost the Super Gold, the market has lost as well...

...Sumerall: Quarterback Warren Buffett is on the field with his
first POSsesion. Reaching back in his pocket, Buffett
throws long...incomplete. Second and ten. Here's the snap...back
to pass, under pressure...caught behind the line of scrimmage for
a loss of $1.50.

Mad N: Boom! On his back. Boy he'll feel that one in the morning.

Summerall: Armstrong and Lynch in on the tackle...

$

...MadN: This is the third punt this quarter for the Packers.
The Green and Gold can't seem to break the 30.0 yard line.

Summerall: Coming in to punt is Adrian Day.

Mad N: Day's Punt average is respectable but he usually keeps a
foot in other hard currencies as well.

Sumerall: Giants come to the line of scrimmage. Brinker barks
the count. Stepping back in the pocket he throws...interflection!
Jeff Goldenbach steals the ball and the momentum shifts once again.

Mad N: Brinker's been throwing all his eggs in one basket
all afternoon. Reggie White Metal tipped the POGskin at the line
of scrimmage to set up the turnover. The POGskin is inside
the Giants' 40 yard line now.

$

Pat Summerall: Buffett pitches out--it's a half-back option play...
he slips and falls... What a loss!

Mad N: Now you know why they call it a half-back option--Gold'll
be lucky to get half back what they lost on that option play
before they have to punt.

Pat Summerall: The Giants punt from their own 40 yard line.
A booming kick sails all the way into the endzone.

Mad N: FLAG is down on the field...waiting for the call but it
looks like the Gold is in trouble once again

Pat Summerall: Apparently it's defensive holding on the Packers.

Mad N: By senselessly holding Gold defensively, investors lost
the ball here once again.

$

Pat Summerall: The Packers snap the ball--it's a hand-off into
the line for at most a yard.

Mad N: They're so conservative they're afraid of doing anything
so they end up doing nothing. I've seen more yards gained on
a rooftop by the runners on Santa's sleigh.

Pat Summerall: Ball is snapped...they're blitzing...the defense
is all over the quarterback who stumbles as he backs into the pocket.

Mad N: He scrambled like a grandma...and got run over by a
reindeer like one too.

Summerall: Reindeer?

Mad N: Yeah--Blitzen.

$$$

On the twelfth day of scandal, Bill Clinton gave to me,
twelve spinsters spinning,
eleven zippers zipping,
ten ladies panting,
nine monks a veeping,
eight aides a bilking,
seven cons a brimming,
sex sleaze displaying,
THE FIFTH AMENDMENT!
Four stalling words,
three wench 10's,
two firm denials,
and a subpoena for Charlie Trie.

$

Oh capital flight, gold bars are brightly shining, as all Dow stocks
slide into a rat hole.

Longs, so we're told, are best to be unwinding, before the time
portfolios melt in worth.

The Dow gets ploughed, the weary bear rejoices for yonder breaks a gold
and silver bull.

Fall S&P's, oh hear the PM's ringing despite late declines and forward
hedging by all the mines.
Oh might James Dines show he was right as the metals leave the earth.

$

Here comes market crash, here comes market crash--longs are in for some
pain.
Vexed, blitzed, and blasted the market strains here,
Giving up its gains.
Sells are springing, longs are wringing,
Capital is in flight.
Hang your stock broker today,
'Cause market crashes stocks at their height.

Here comes market crash here comes market crash--holding cash isn't
lame.
Indexes lag and bears filled with joy
As troy ounces see gains.

Hear those stray sells linger longer,
Oh what a ludicrous sight.
So dump instead--you1re covered with red
'Cause market crash bleeds you white!

Here comes market crash, hear comes market crash,
YK2 gets the blame
The bear doesn't care if you're rich or poor
It claws you just the same

Bear claws knows we're all bewildered
That makes for capital flight.
So fill your charts with downtrend lines
'Cause market crash plumbs low to the right.

Here comes market crash, here comes market crash,
Valuations insane.
Gold'll come around when the chimes ring out
It's a PM bull again.
Stock price worth will come to all
It we survive thru the plight

So let's run banks till recovery booms
That market crash is out of site.

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...had nothing to do with Kitco being down.

They are only active when the POG is UP.

gave a 100 head of sheep!

Care to share the source, or reason for your unbridled ebbulience?

Regarding the previous discussion about sending a CAD drawing off to a shop on-line and having metal parts delivered in return, I found the site. The place is called Parts Now and has an exclusive license of MIT's 3D technology until 2006. Basically, my understanding is, you send your CAD drawing off to them and in a few days they'll turn it back to you as a prototype part. They seem to create a die for the part and I believe they can make as many of them as you want. Anyway, here's the site, just go to the DSPC section and there's a FAQ that answers questions about the process. Looks nifty.

http://www.partsnow.com/

LOL. It's good to see the efforts of a fella who uses his offtime productively.

Under capitalism man exploits man: under socialism the reverse is true.

Priceless...yup...uh huh...Priceless...

"Bill, you can't win against us.", Janet leaning over Bill Gates in an awkward fashion as if she was ready to fall on top of him. Bill thought to himself "If these guys were a business, they would be like Atari." No product and broke. Just like Atari they say they are 'Doing it all for the children' .
"I guess I'll throw them a bone. A very small fragile bone." In an effort to stave off an attack by the Justice Department, Bill Gates has reluctantly disclosed secret backdoor access routines to his Internet Information Server 4.0 to Justice Department officials.

The Justice Department promptly turned over this 'vital' information to Robert Rubin's Plunge Protection Team. They had been working for weeks on their new imperative. With the impending gold boom looming on the horizon, the continuation of free forums of gold advice has been seen to be an anathema. They knew that logical discussion of the free-markets would result in the realization that the markets were rigged. The Furbey could not be denied this Christmas. Gold must not be seen as the Ghost of Christmas past; luring investors away from their precious fiat, and into a realm of tangible assets.

The Cisco routers at the Toronto based ISP had been acting a little flaky recently ever since an altered Class C lookup table had been infected months ago. No logging was performed when the "killer packet" arrived from Ft. Meade. The domain map sent the missive directly to the Microsoft NT 4.0 Server and proceeded to unlock the IIS 4.0 web services. Frantically, the webmasters tried to bring the service back up, but to no avail.

After days of confusion and withdrawal the desired affect had been achieved. Thousands of gold stocks had been dumped on Globex. Thousands of precious coins with pictures of virtuous women, large beasts, tree's leaves and opera houses were flooding pawn and coin shops with the plaintiff "Sell, sell, sell!"

Kitco was the first gold based web forum to be hit with many more to follow.

A sinister laugh was heard in Seattle though. "Suckers. I forgot to tell them about the new 'maintenance' release of IIS 4.0.1" "I better call that dealer in Toronto and give him the good news." "After all, where can I get reliable coverage on my vast holdings of my precious."

BEIJING ( AP ) -- In a surprise move aimed at halting price deflation and reviving global economic growth, China's central bank Sunday cut interest rates on both deposits and loans by 0.5 percentage point, Chinese state media reported. The interest rate cuts, which take effect Monday, are the third time the People's Bank of China has eased credit since October last year, the Xinhua News Agency reported. An unidentified PBoC spokesman said the bank wants to help reverse price deflation, ease debt burdens of state companies and ward off global recessionary pressures. "Based on these factors, there was a need to gradually reduce interest rates," Xinhua quoted the official as saying.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn08.htm

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Approaching the end of a wild year of ups and downs in the stock market, Wall Street's bulls still have their sights set on a target of Dow 10,000. That bull-market milestone is only a few hundred points beyond the record highs of 9,300-plus set by Dow Jones's average of 30 blue chip industrials in July and November. Even with its recent step back below the 9,000 level, the average would need a gain of only 12 percent to 13 percent in 1999 to take it into five-digit territory. The Dow has done that well or better in each of the past four years. Indeed, analysts such as Thomas Galvin at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities and Yale Hirsch, publisher of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac, talk up 11,000 as a possibility by the end of next year. This kind of optimism is by no means unanimous, however. Many professional investors, including people who run some of the big stock mutual funds, say it's very dangerous to project the future as a straight line running out of the recent past.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1y.htm
--
I wouldn't bet the baby's milk money.

I am on a 30 min delay, so I won't see anything for another 15 min, but I am watching to see if there are anomolous trades in the first 15 min. I still think I see some wierd stuff happen like trades 5 or more dollars away from where it opens. And I think there may be some relationship to the trading when gold opens in New York. I think it was Sharefin who explained that this was probably not significant but may reflect market sentiment. But it's weird and neat.

Anybody want to watch with me should go to

http://www.quote.com/cgi-bin/jchart-form?genApplet=yes

and type gcg9 in the symbol box and on the chart button check all sessions.

YAKIMA, Wash. ( AP ) -- In Asia, people can't afford his apples. In the United States, companies aren't willing to pay him enough to make it worth his while to pick them. So, apple grower Dick Clements will let 1,000 tons of apples -- about 10 percent of his crop -- rot this year. But the apple industry, like others being squeezed by the ongoing Asian financial crisis, is not just going to sit around and take a beating. Apple growers are going to ask Uncle Sam for help in stopping what they say is a flood of unfairly priced foreign apple juice concentrate to U.S. juice makers.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1z.htm
--
And from the "I need protection because deflation is kicking my butt" dept ...

something to consider ( not what I expected... )
http://www.newworldorder.com/

CAMARILLO, Calif. ( AP ) -- U.S. gasoline prices may have hit bottom and could stay there a while, barring a worldwide financial crisis, an industry analyst said Sunday. The average retail price, including all grades and taxes, was $1.0467 per gallon on Friday, down 2.64 cents from two weeks earlier, according to the Lundberg Survey of 10,000 stations nationwide. Regular gasoline at self-serve stations, which comprise the majority of sales, dropped below $1. Price wars in some areas brought it even lower.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn06.htm

Found on the AMZN message board:

"To start with, my current holdings in AMZN are neutral-an even number of shares-both long and short. My intention is to trade both directions and make money both ways."

Message 35804

http://www.russiatoday.com:80/rtoday/business/news/98120406.html

TACOMA, Wash. ( AP ) -- Steve and Christy Barrie had plenty of home heating oil pumped into their basement. Trouble was: they long ago converted to natural gas. Instead of pumping 250 gallons of fuel oil into a neighbor's storage tank, a delivery man poured it into the Barries' basement. "When I saw the oil delivery guy at my house, I was shocked," said Christy Barrie. "When I went into my house, the whole basement was covered with red oil." The oil ended up 8 inches deep in the Barries' basement, ruining children's toys, a computer, photographs and other belongings.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne0l.htm
--
Oil co's will do anything to reduce inventories ...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981206/l.html

HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Faced with worsening work conditions amid a deep recession, about 400 foreign workers in Hong Kong Sunday protested a proposal to cut the minimum wage for foreigners by 20 percent.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn04.htm

That trader my soon find out how much brokers like dealing with 'boxed' positions. Imagine how easy it would be to screw up a 'buy to close' ( short position ) or 'buy to open' ( long position ) in the heat of the moment... :- ) )

Not to mention the converse.........

Envy, I paid 89.9 cents a gallon here in Central Wisconsin yesterday. Lowest I've seen in state in over ten years. --AG

I just saw gas at 81.9 cents a gallon today at a BJ's wholesale store. It's a members only type of club. All that you have to do is buy a years memebership for a minimal fee. Just down the street from the BJ's was a Getty station selling regular gas at 89.9 cents a gallon.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/ascani120398.html

Our September observations on over-leveraged hedge funds developed into a much greater issue in recent weeks, bringing it to the forefront. So much so that Alan Greenspan, Robert Ruben, the New York Fed, and many large financial institutions became involved in a private bailout of the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) . Its failure would have jeopardized the entire world financial system according to the Fed, and it still may have longer term implications to deal with as we see the recent action as another band-aid solution that will only slow the bleeding for a while, until even more money is needed to hide the reality of almost limitless losses.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/harris120398.html ( remove "en" )
--
Gusto Oro: It's still running about a buck here in VA. Your price is realy cheap, I can't remember it being about 0.75$US/gal, but that's been a very long time ago. I don't think the end is near.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981206/8.html

IT'S the economy, stupid. Remember that saying? It was the motto that Bill Clinton used in 1992 to remind himself and supporters what was important to voters. Focusing on the economy got him into the White House and ended the residency of George Bush. In case you've forgotten, Bush was wildly popular just 12 months before his '92 election defeat. Coming off a stunning military victory against Iraq, Bush was considered a shoo-in for re-election until he lost sight of the economy.

http://nypostonline.com/business/8080.htm

I hate to be a skeptic but "a mysterious White House investigation", Hedge funds under investigation, Why has Matt Drudge missed this one?? How do I get confirmation of this story???

Where is a phone number for The Spotlight ?
Where is the internet address?
Where do they publish ?
How do I get a hard copy ?



Wall Streets Golden Egg Is Scrambled

Borrowing gold dirt cheap, a leading hedge fund used the gold to finance its investments. Then the house of
cards came tumbling down.

Exclusive to the Spotlight -- By Martin Mann

New York City, New York - The White House is quietly assembling a task force of federal investigators to look
into reports that a back-room syndicate of Wall Streets largest banks and hedge funds has been engaged in vast
and risky speculative maneuvers that involved, among other tactics, rigging the market value and global supply of
gold.

This vital precious metal has been bought and sold for more than a year in large quantities at unnaturally low and
stagnant price levels in both of the worlds principal gold trading centers, London and New York, sources
noted.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan engineered an emergency bailout worth billions last
September for a foundering East Coast hedge fund, known as Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) ,
regulators found that this private investment firm had assumed large hidden trading positions in gold.

That was a disturbing discovery, sources say. LTCM was known for wheeling and dealing in the securities and
currency markets, but not in commodities.

They made enormous bets on stocks, bonds and even Asian currencies, says veteran financial analyst Ron
Welker. When they suddenly went bust in late August, they were in danger of defaulting on speculative forward
contracts worth a staggering $200 billion. But gold was never supposed to be part of LTCMs portfolio.

LTCM used gold merely as an instrument to finance its gambles, says Welker. They found that they could
borrow gold in any quantity at dirt-cheap interest rates, often amounting to no more that one and one-half
percent. They immediately sold their borrowed bullion, and thus acquired funding on which they paid only
minimal interest, far below the prevailing loan rates. ....

Just got back from a total station 69.9 cents. Same at 7-11. That's in OKC, Ok. Never thought I would see that again. Not sure I'm glad.

Is this SPOTLIGHT a LGB joke, paid for by the commerzbank or Loral???

to Ptwoskool's household: My 12 yr. old son received a notice in the mail from our health insurance company, that as part of the omnibus appropiations bill-a bill passed concerning cancer and patient rights-that he would indeed be entitled to benefits for not only the reconstruction of the breast on which the mastectomy had been performed,but for the other breast as well,to produce a symmetrical appearance.Should this fail to produce an acceptable result,he is entitled to reimbursement for a prostheses.

Should I make up a dummy invoice?

It was a tumultuous week for global financial markets. In Asia, economic data confirming the region's perilous near-depressionary state contributed to regional stock weakness, including a 7% decline for Hong Kong and 3% in Japan. Reports also support the growing consensus that Europe is entering recession and despite a surprising concerted interest rate reduction by eleven European central banks, stocks were hit hard. Losses of between 5% and 6% suffered in England, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Amsterdam, and Sweden. In Russia, an historic financial and economic meltdown gains momentum with the rouble now in virtual freefall having dropped 18% since November 1st and 67% since August. Importantly, however, the most ominous signs of an escalating global crisis are much closer to home. Not surprisingly, Brazilian politicians are reluctant to subscribe to the austerity measures recommended by the IMF. Many are simply unwilling to raise taxes and impose hardship on the country's vulnerable economy for the sake of supporting what is certainly an overvalued currency. With interest rates high, commodity prices in collapse and economies slowing rapidly, the entire Latin American region is now in serious trouble. Increasingly, the situation with the IMF bailout for Brazil looks to have potential to deteriorate to something similar to Russia earlier this year where bailout funds simply financed capital flight providing no help to the real economy whatsoever. And with the additional dilemma to many of the region's economies due to the collapse in the price of oil, nervous investors are fleeing all of Latin America. For the week, stocks in Brazil dropped 16%, Argentina 13%, Mexico 6%, Chile 8% and Venezuela 5%. For all of 1998, losses mount with Brazil down 25%, Argentina 34%, Mexico 28%, Chile 26% and Venezuela 55%.

http://www.prudentopinion.com/mkcomm.htm
--
Definite "must read" article.

The major market averages roared to new highs during November. A rally like this one can only be classified as "mind boggling". No matter which side of the debate you are on, it clearly demonstrates the occasional absurdity of market movements. Almost nothing has changed since the recent correction except for a few interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Surely a .75% change in interest rates isn't the difference between financial Armageddon and the start of another "New Era". But these days any semblance of reasonable and thoughtful behavior is totally absent on both Wall Street and Main Street. Just look at the Internet stocks. The English language simply doesn't contain the words to describe the action that's going on in that area. The broader rally itself was probably the result of a combination of short covering, rapid money growth, Wall St. spin, lower interest rates, renewed confidence, and the unwinding of short positions by LTCM. In my view, the low point of the recent correction ( around DOW 7500 and S&P500 950 ) didn't represent bargain basement prices. The air is very thin at current market levels.

http://members.aol.com/WCrimi/dec98.html
--
Yeah, and still my short position gets hammered.

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/981203/mining_con_1.html

With the US financial system at the brink following the collapse of Long Term Capital Management and the severe impairment of the reckless leveraged speculator community - largely hedge funds and Wall Street firms - the Greenspan Federal Reserve now embarks on yet another round of financial crisis management. And reminiscent of the bank and S&L bailout in the early 1990's, and the Mexican bailout in 1995, the singular remedy is but ever-greater credit excess. And, of course, each crisis sets the stage for the next even larger debacle necessitating another bailout only more arduous and precarious than the one before. In the final analysis, today's bailout of Wall Street is little more than another round of financial system monetization. Today, truly massive credit creation encompassing the banking system and the government sponsored entities, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank system, rescues the leverage speculators and, hence, the US financial system. We have, however, a difficult time celebrating this largess, recognizing all to well it only defers the inevitable devastating day of reckoning for the unsuspecting American investor and taxpayer.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/noland113098.html ( remove "en" )

After spending most of October and November in a relentless runup, the Dow Jones Industrials may finally be losing steam. Certainly, a correction is long overdue and our technical indicators point to at least the 8400-8650 area as the most likely area for a near-term retracement. The "ascending wedge" pattern we've followed in the Dow's chart for the past several weeks has finally been broken to the downside. For the past week, the Dow has been down as much as 400 points from its all-time record of 9377 achieved last week. From a chart perspective, it looks like a double top may have already formed in the DJI.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/droke120398.html ( remove "en" )
--
Yeah, like I said, none of this has helped my short position.

greetings,

HARTFORD, Conn.-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Dec. 4, 1998--The
law firm of Schatz & Nobel, P.C. has recently filed class
actions on behalf of all investors who acquired the
following securities during the periods listed:
( ...including... )
BANKAMERICA CORP.
8/4/98 - 10/13/98. Misrepresentations concerning loans and
investments in a hedge fund.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/981204/schatz_nob_1.html

let the games begin!
AUWolf

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/19981205/wl/brazil_trade_2.html

I think I'd take "The Spotlight" with more than one grain of salt...

http://www.serve.com/crew/html/reserve.html

Keywords that show up are "conspiracy", "Zionist" but hey! it's a free newsletter.....

Perhaps I needed to insert the jargon keywords "systemic risk" to communicate.



Worshippers at the Temple of Baal were enslaved by the rule of 11 for 10 within a few generations. 3% compunded per annum is an unsustainable real rate of return as someone demonstrated with calculations from a penny a few days past. But, these facts seems contradicted by the experience of our lifetimes in which the credit for money usury system has overcome every prediction of impending doom. Why is that ?



It is my opinion that the increase in production from application of science and technology combined with systematic devaluation of the unit of account have together sustained the credit as money usury system. The gains in this century in crop yields, in mining yields, and in manufacturing yields have far exceeded anything in the sum of all previous human history. Borrowed units have been repaid with less valuable units. These two factors have delayed the arrival of the credit as money usury system to its destined, inevitable, disastrous end. They have deceived us into thinking the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God have been repealed. But, TEOTWAWKI is a recurring event in human history. Space migration is not.



The bankruptcy of a concern does not decrease the debt of the Sovereign in a credit as money usury system. It just reduces current credit. The debt of the Sovereign and the interest burden ever increases.



One either perceives that the laws delivered by scripture are given by a loving, benevolent diety for the good of mankind or not. Consenting adults has not much to do with it. Consent is not asked by the murderer or the thief. Dens of thieves are far from rare in history. But, neither are they memorialized as happy places of long habitation.



Producer prices in agriculture, mining, and manufacture worldwide are beneath the level required to service and pay the debt outstanding. Is there enough credit still remaining in the future to borrow from it once again to refinance the present ? I don't think so. The world is not going to lend it.



What follows and what role has gold in it ? Well, what would Bill Clinton do ? And will it last ? Gold does.



Brain Food



WHAT HAVE THEY DONE TO US?

( curious ) Nov 08, 14:35





I could never understand how this system just keeps going. All numbers can be verified at URL below. And the numbers below REALLY make me wonder how it keeps going. Only way I can see to destroy this system is if too many cease borrowing ( or lending ) .



http://www.the-moneychanger.com/



In dollars all money issued and not retired: $457.469 Billion.

US Banks have: $ 44.058 Billion.

That is 10 pct. of all existing money.

The FED estimates that 2/3 circulates overseas. That would suggest that 1/3 ought to be here in US. This would be equivalent to $152.49 Billion. $100+ Billion seems to be missing.



In US: Demand deposits: $407.40 Billion

Other M-1 checkable deposits: $245.60

Billion

Other checkable deposits ( CD's ) of banks

and thrifts from M1, M2 and M3: $2,936.7

Total: $3,589.70



On 4-10-98 total required reserves for all banks was $47.403 billion. If you divide that into the total above it equals 1.3205%.



If you divide $100/1.3205 you get the leverage. This means that the leverage is 75.73:1. But that is not all. There is no reserve requirement for savings or CD's, so they can be levered, theoretically, to infinity.



I am a simple man, but not yet senile. Do the letters LTCM register? I read various numbers about their leverage and we will never know, probably. But I would place the banks in the same league 75:1 is pretty good. As a matter of fact, what is the difference between a CB and LTCM? It is quite clear, now, how close we came to disaster. If you are not petrified, you do not yet understand. I'll bet AG had more in his pants than his hand.



It is quite plain to see that when I put $100 in the bank, only $1.32 is available if everyone wanted their money at the same time. I don't like that. Does Y2K ring a bell?

On the other hand, when I deposit $100 the banks can turn it into $7500. I ask my learned friends, does this make sense?



Just a few minutes ago the US National Debt was $5,562,276,965,047.12. There was a smidgen over 6 billion people living in this world. By my calculation that means the US owes every person in world about $927. But they say, the debt is meaningless. Explain that to me. Don't worry, the checks in the mail. But can someone explain to me how you can pay a 5.5 Trillion debt with 457 billion dollars? The good news is here ( if my decimals are right ) , we are only leveraged 12:1. Are you petrified yet?



If every CB in the world can or has leveraged at a 75:1 ratio, the accumulated numbers must be staggering. Is it worth anyones time to investigate their CB? Is there a case to be made for inflation here? I think so. But that is another time.



What would you rather have? Three $100 bills or an "It feels so nice and is so pretty" ounce of gold, the measure of "good as".

Thanks for the effort you put into your Christmas production this year.
Glad to see taht FLAG was mentioned. Although it has been flat on the field for most of the last season, there may be reason to think that it will soon FLY again! ;- )

Chart--SpiderSpinning

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/981206/china_rate_1.html

Rubin tells Clinton he wants to resign-Japan paper

TOKYO, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin recently told President Bill Clinton that he wanted to resign shortly after the Christmas holiday, a Japanese newspaper reported on Monday.

Quoting unnamed U.S. government sources, the Sankei Shimbun reported out of Washington that Rubin had sounded out Clinton about resigning his post, but that Clinton had asked him to stay.

Clinton conveyed his ``strong desire'' to Rubin that he stay in the post at least until a replacement was found, the sources were quoted as telling Sankei.

ALL - There has been quite a bit of co-operation between a few different parties here in Toronto, setting up this bash. It is shaping up VERY nicely, with many Toronto area regulars and lurkers confirmed to attend. We also have at least four and maybe more out-of-towners confirmed to attend, the latest being Ali ( flying in from Calgary, Alberta! ) . Another long time Kitcoite who has posted from time to time in last two years ( similar story to ALI ) is Quixotic1, coming from Concord, New Hampshire. Mike Stewart ( posts great technicals on TSE ) from Cambridge, Ont. and another gentleman from near Kitchener, Ontario is expected. Regulars from Toronto area who have confirmed are SteveinTO, MoinTO, BMACD, Rhody, Mooney and SELBY ( confirmed Yesterday ) . Also a long-time Kitco lurker who works as a mining stock analyst for a Toronto Stock Exchange firm and is in Argentina this past week investigating a new Gold discovery is expected to attend. Plus about three/four more lurker/friends. If anybody has new e-mails for Front, 6Pak, or any others that you think may want to attend, please e-mail them as they may have missed the Kitco posts.
Tolerant1 ( New York City ) has expressed desire, but is still in rough shape ( medically speaking ) at the moment. Get Totally Well Tol! ;- )
Polarbear ( Japan ) has sent regrets - Baby, ( born Dec. 2 ) , and wife, are doing just fine - Way to go Mr. Hill! Congratulations from Kitcoites everywhere I'm sure!
BillnOregon has sent regrets - promises next time as he will be flying to Phoenix just prior.
Glenn ( New York City ) also expressed strong desire to attend but could only make it for AFTER Christmas - says try for next time.
Bart ( who the heck's he? ) says same as Glenn, so we will hold them to that for our next bash in late Spring '99.
All our Downunder friends are beginning to enjoy Summer and are waiting for the Kitco big bash in Hawaii in 2001 to attend - after we're all rich ;- ) - but send their regards.
Reify and his lovely wife who came all the way from Israel to become one of our Original summer '98 group wrote:
"Wish I could be there to say hi to y'all, and wish y'all a Merry Christmas
and a healthy prosperous Happy New Year.
Best,
Fred and Yvette"
Still waiting to hear from any others within commutable distance who may wish to attend.
I have confirmed our reservation at the Downtown Toronto Sheraton Hotel for the Luncheon Buffet - seating from 12:30 onwards - Reservation under code name MOONEY ;- ) - we can linger til about 4:30. Diehards may then find themselves following the group to another cosy downtown hole-in-the-wall to continue the chat.
Anyone who has not yet written me and wishes to attend, drop me a line at: moonstep@idirect.com
Thanks, and Season's Greetings To ALL!

?Thanks for your very expert analysis of the CEF rights issue. I understand the reason for this
exercise is to allow larger holdings by funds. Is this your understanding? If true I think it will be
a positive for the long term. Larger volume of shares traded could push the price further above
NAV during times when ( and if ) gold is in favor again.

I am in the same situation you are in, the most I could lose is $500 if everything goes against.

Bernie

Sounds like an awesome crowd! Wish I could make it, but you know how it is, so hard to pull away for the good things. I hope you guys have a great time. Warm regards from the beautiful state of Virginia.

Like usual, thanks for interesting info.

But I believe that Mr. Silver is dead wrong,
he is just out of logic - he belives that Russia
and Japan "will recover". First, those two countries
must never be compared or even put on one line, there is
nothing common between them. Second, Japan will probably do
recover, but Russia - no way this will happen in the nearest
3-4 years.. Mr. Silver is a dreamer w/o understanding of
simple basics...and can not be trusted on his silver/gold
views...

Great work Mooney. I really hope all enjoy the meeting. Can't make it, but
I plan to attend one in 99 sometime, when we are somewhere around the 400's.
Once again good luck and very happy holidays...... MG

Spider Spinning [it's not that great a chart...hardly worth all this angst {:- ( (

Really comes down to how much gold and silver you want to hold. I'm begining to happily play with extremes...physical and internet stocks...think about it. One or both will rocket.

Tom

Going somewhere? The monitored currencies circa 1997

and again, currencies circa 1997

Tom

Greetings,

Just saw a story on CNN Headline news@45min after the hour,
covering the gold coin rush.
They say it's due to Y2k, and that the
''bottom'' price is due to high availability.

sure, ok, uh huh...

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981207/world/world3.html

hmmm.............

Anyone know a source for 1oz US Silver Eagles in quantites greater than 100 for less than 6.54$US each ? Interested in picking some up. Whatever the market is going to do, a pirate has to fill his or her treasure chest while the metals are cheap. Away to watch Houdini special on the tee-vee.

Oh yeah, can't mention pirates w/o saying HAR!

TOKYO, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin recently told President Bill Clinton that he wanted to resign shortly after the Christmas holiday, a Japanese newspaper reported on Monday.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981207/market/markets5.html

Mooney,, What is the date of this bash?
TIA, rb

Monitored currencies, a year later. Convergence euro, yuan and AU-audit becomes even more apparent...

about two dozen 1 X 2 inch sections of high grade silver ore
from Cobalt, Ontario for the Kitco Toronto Bash. Each slab
should be sufficient for a bola tie or belt buckle scale cut stone.
Consult a lapidary or rock shop near you to do the work. You
should be able to get a 25mm X 30mm stone from each slab.

Rhody

Thanks for your efforts and the wonderful Christmas gift for all attendees. Reserved table for fifteen, That number stilllooks good. E-mail me Thursday/Friday for a final update.
BTW - ALL attending are invited to bring at least one special precious metal item for round robin discussion.

Sorry arby, and ALL still thinking of attending. Date is Sat. Dec. 12th!

A new fascist president has been
elected in Venezuela today. The
mainstream news on tv did not even
cover it. This is potentially significant
as Venezuela is a major oil producer,
in noncompliance with OPEC, and a neighbornext to
to shakytown Brazil where all the big US
MNC banks and brokers are up to to their
eyeballs in exposure and trying to shove an auterity
program down the throat of the Brazilian
poor so Wall Street gets bailed out.
Karl Marx once said capitalism would
hang itself with its' own
rope.

Part I --Counting
We are taught from an early age, how we must view 'things'; yet, when we consider great creative thinkers [Einstein, Mandelbrot for example] we see that their work arrives based on nothing from the past. When one first mentioned the calculation which you are about to meet to a colleague, one was told, "You can't do that! You'll be comparing apples and oranges." To which one replied, "How do the Westminster judges arrive at a best of show?"

1. Consider the fiats. Where is the commonality? "The possession, along with another or others, of a certain attribute or set of attributes".
**The fiat commonality: they are all pieces of paper that have been assigned various and sundry arbitrary 'prices' [one refuses to use the term 'values'] by issuing arbiters ( governments/central banks ) . ** If one is of a wondering nature, one might wonder, "What happens if they are treated as countable pieces of paper?".

2. Let us count the pieces of paper, without fear or favor, using a known and respected world standard of measurement from the cbs own kit: 31.103, the number of grams in a troy ounce, to be applied to each currency in precisely the same manner. Can't say fairer than that! One suggests that this ' Standard Tool', the AU Audit Control number [the result of the above calculation] would surely be agreeable to all involved cbs. 31.103 is both ice pick and rope for our climb up the monetary Matterhorn.
Please see Chart "Spider Spinning

This is a broad overview of the collective fiat action, utilizing the AU-Audit control number as a kind of baseline.

Part II: working with the fiat Au-Auditor control number
1. Six currencies were selected for monitoring. The selection was predicated on a number of factors, including the reconfiguration of the SDR basket in 2000, an assessment of power players going forward and personal interest and investment lines. The six are: the Chinese yuan/renminbi [CNY]; the German mark [DEM]; the European euro [XEU}; the Japanese yen [JPY]; the SDR [XDR]; the United States dollar [USD]. The British pound was not included because it is a mirror image of the euro.

2. Collect the monthly average for each of the monitored currencies.
3. Calculate the average monthly number for all.
4. Divide by the AuAuditControl number [31.103].
Please view charts "Going Somewhere?"[97] & "Arrival?" [98]

To utilize the Au-Audit control for another view-one which gives [or so I believe] a picture of the devaluation and/o revaluation of the currencies, divide 31.103 into the daily quote of the price of gold in the monitored currencies. This gives one the grams per POG per currency.

One notes that in January of 1997 the average grams per fiat were 322. In December of 1998, the average grams per fiat are 240. The dollar has moved from a high of 11 in 1997 to a stable 8 in most of 1998. Euro is, and has been at 7. Yen stable at 10 [yen is at 1:1, and one can not but wonder about THAT!, and the yuan/renminbi is at an incredibly stable 7. Seven for the yuan and seven for the euro.

D. Using the PMs as calibrators. Small markets are eminently controllable. So they are.

1. For example, on 11/2, XPT: SDR and XAU: XEU came into alignment. Why is that important? Because the reciprocal of a number is the same whether the number is representing something called an 'SDR' or something called an "XEU' linked to something called gold or something called platinum. The reciprocal for SDR 254 platinum and XEU 254 gold is 0.003937007874016.

Reciprocals are Financial Egalitarians, affirming and promoting equal political, economic, social, and civil rights for all fiats. The central banks couldn't get along without 'em.

Please see chart "fancy meeting you here!"

One is not deluded into believing the cbs have used the KISS methodology as outlined above. One is fully confident that a veritable army of mathematicians has produced awesome ranks of equation-soldiers, which are to "take hill-'D' debt at all costs".

As all money is belief, one wonders if they are ahead on points.

A new fascist president has been
elected in Venezuela today. The
mainstream news on tv did not even
cover it. This is potentially significant
as Venezuela is a major oil producer,
in noncompliance with OPEC quotas, and a
neighbor next door to to shakytown
Brazil where the big US MNC banks- Goldmans Sachs
Citigroup-and brokers are up to to their eyeballs
in exposure and trying to shove an austerity
program down the throat of the Brazilian
poor so Wall Street gets bailed out.
Karl Marx once said capitalism would
hang itself with its' own rope.

I would like to proposs that we set a meeting for two weeks after Gold has a weekly closing over $400.00 and that who ever wants to attend needs to reserve NOW! This way all of the Real Dihard Kitco Gold fans can celebrate! Mooney can hold the guest list. What do you say??

little biased.

bull, then nothing will. It will probably still take a golden stake through it's heart to finally finish it off.

Re: A new fascist president has been elected in Venezuela today. The mainstream news on tv did not even cover it."

The NYTimes had a front-page story.

The buried story of the day is Taiwan. The Chinese threw the mayorial election to get the 51% to 46% victory of the KMT against the New Democrats who aim for separation from China. The separatist mayor was certain for president in the Y2000 elections if he'd won the mayorial race in Taipei.

-EJ

Oil prices may be on verge of big spike with
new government in Venezuela and cold weather
coming to US. Good for CRB!
( Reuters-12-4-98 ) Venezuela, the United
States' most important oil-trading partner, is likely
on Sunday to elect as president an
attempted-coup leader who has been denied a
U.S. visa and wants to redirect his country's oil
policy toward the Arab-dominated OPEC cartel.
However, industry experts say
paratrooper-turned-politician Hugo Chavez's
bark may be worse than his bite and that he will
not follow through on his campaign promises to
revamp state-owned oil company Petroleos de
Venezuela ( PDVSA ) after he takes office in
February. Even so, his dominant position in the
polls and hostility to liberalization has raised
eyebrows in Washington.
Not only is Venezuela the second-biggest oil
supplier to the United States, but U.S. oil
companies have committed to invest $19 billion in
Venezuela's liberalization of its oil sector. And
PDVSA has assets worth $7 billion in the United
States.
Chavez, whose fiery nationalist rhetoric
appeals to the poor but upsets investors, has
vowed to fire U.S.-friendly Luis Giusti as
president of PDVSA and is considering selling
billions of dollars of oil assets in the United States.
Giusti has presided over a dramatic recovery
in Venezuelan oil output after a slump during the
1980s. But Chavez blames him for precipitating
the recent crash in oil prices, which has seen
prices hit their lowest level in more than 12 years,
creating a big hole in government finances.
Venezuela's oil basket accounts for around 75
percent of the country's export earnings. Its value,
however, has fallen 33 percent from last year to
average around $10.90 a barrel in 1998, costing
the country roughly $6 billion in export revenues.
"The Venezuelan oil model of the century that
is now ending has been ... oil and more oil on the
one hand, and hunger and desolation on the
other," Chavez told a conference recently.

Giving the nod to OPEC

Chavez has said he supports oil production
cuts with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries ( OPEC ) , in direct opposition to the
country's existing plan to increase output with the
help of billions of overseas dollars.
"He can promise whatever he wants to OPEC,
but once he has to deal with the economy, he
might change his opinion," said Roger Diwan, an
analyst at Petroleum Finance Corp. in the United
States.
"And his main point would not be to go into
the OPEC fold, but make Venezuelans better off,
which involves producing more," Diwan added.
A deepening recession, an overvalued
currency and one of the highest inflation rates in
Latin America are among the economic issues the
new government will have to tackle.
Venezuela has traveled too far down the path
of opening its oil production to the private sector
to stem rapid growth in the next few years, argues
Bernard Mommer, a Venezuelan research fellow
at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
And in any case, Diwan says Venezuela would
not find its fellow OPEC members, such as Saudi
Arabia and Iran, willing to make more cuts in
production as existing reductions have only lost
them market share for no improvement in price.
"I don't think Venezuela alone can get prices
up, and I'm not sure their partners are willing to
do it. Chavez is a nationalist and will look out for
his own interest," Diwan said.
"It will be interesting to see how long it takes
them to get into the realistic policy. Otherwise,
Venezuela will be much worse off in six months
than it is now," he added.
Diwan does not expect Chavez to follow
through on his suggestion to sell U.S. assets,
because in the midst of a price war, the country
would face problems selling its oil, which is of
significantly lower quality than that of its
competitors.
"I would expect Chavez to follow a program,
which means getting closer to OPEC and
probably sticking to the quotas that this
government has not implemented, but nothing
radical," said Mommer.

Paying heed to what's come before

Chavez has promised to respect existing
agreements with international oil companies and
analysts do not expect him to try to rewrite them,
despite the fact that many of his senior advisers
have called them illegal.
"There is a time bomb in the issue of the
contracts, and it is difficult to diffuse it. The best
thing Chavez can do right now would be to
contain the issue," he added.




home | markets | contents | search | sto

Chart--grams of truth?

implications for U.S. Banks finally sinks into the neanderthal skulls of Battipaglia & his compadres the end will begin.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981202/to.html

Chart--Fancy meeting you here!

A month ago I priced an order of sheet iron. Four weeks later I bought the same iron for 25% less than we could have got it for earlier. These prices are in the same price range I bought it for approx 1976. Thats deflation.

http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

When? Before AG leaves? April...pure speculation...if a plan then the plan will not destroy any but save all.....think about it.

Tom

US gold and silver stocks collapsed on the back of lower silver and gold. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ( XAU ) broke down through 70 support and lost 10 per cent of its value last week.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981207/market/markets11.html

Does it say I should convert Euro to yen and then buy gold with my yen for the best deal?

irrelevant to gold being accepted as the international trade unit of account! They have fought a long and hard battle against it; the east has a very different view and the CLOUT to be heard...whilst speaking quite softly {:- ) ) In short, it is here, but quite spectacularly unacknowledged.

any of the fiats!
Let's just buy gold and bury it! {:- ) )

http://washingtonpost.com:80/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/06/066l-120698-idx.html

Yep. Steel, grains, pork, cattle, you name it, it's looking ugly. Probably a good time to get glasses and cans and buckets and go down to the docks to fill them up with anything that'll hold oil, I hear they're giving the stuff away *grin*. At least they don't have to kill little baby oils instead of raising them, and they don't have to let oils rot on the tree instead of harvesting them and sending them on to market. They do appear to be running out of storage space, however, so I guess maybe inventories will either peak and they'll cut back on production, or production will stay where it is and it's a good time to get into the storage business. I'd bet on the storage business as it appears from recent meetings that OPEC can't make itself cut production. Maybe if they take all that foreign steel that has been piling up on the docks and make storage facilities out of it for oil, hmm, yeah, that's the ticket. Deflation is a very bad thing. All those foreign and domestic producers dumping everything they can to make sales and keep the cash, our cash, flowing into the coffers. How much can they discount it, how far will they go before cutting production and closing down the factories, mines and wells ? Job cuts coming to a neighborhood near you.

Got deflation ?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981206/c2.html

For those who've forgotten, and those too young to rememeber it's
meaning, to those that lived through it!!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au:80/finance/4077940.htm

I read over the weekend a remark by Jerry Favors, If the dow is still making new highs after Xmas the next possible top wouldn't come in until March or April. On my monthly chart that would put the S&P between 1275 and 1300.

globe have destroyed economies and while the US has been a safe haven it is clear that the foundation is cracking...when the foreign money moves it will do so quickly IMHO and all hell will break loose...

If the public were to enter into a period of greatly increased precious metals acquisition ( which appears to be the case ) it would follow that higher spot prices and lease rates should occur.... I have followed this forum for many moons and respect the gathering of wit. Assuming HUGE volume from primarily the US, it would seem we are in for much higher prices. Yes?

Who will be next ? Apple growers just asked the government for trade barriers, steel did it last week and the week before. Cattle producers ? Silver miners ? Grain farmers ? Who else is going to get in line and ask the government to cut off foreign producers from the US marketplace ? Government has already helped out some of the farmer folk when they started buying up inventories for school lunch programs. I even heard mention on the tee-vee, CSPAN I think, where some of the politicians were talking about sending inventories across the waters to help Russia through the winter. Don't let my tone get in the way, I'm all for the American worker, the US farmers, cattle producers, miners, etc. But it's not a solution, it's just a bandage. What happens to all the foreign producers when they don't even have a US market to dump stuff on ? C'ya! I've said for months, the only thing keeping Japan from entering full-scale panic mode is that they still have a US market. The last nail in the coffin. No amount of tinkering with these variables is going to fix the real problem - the world markets aren't buying as much as they were, and production remains too high to support the demand. Demand just keeps dropping off the more we watch it. This story was written years ago, we're just now getting around to reading it.

Also-wanted to mention that the daily fiat gram average for all monitored currencies has fallen neatly into sync with the SDR POG.

Butsomething untoward happened when Europe lowered its rates. Oanda, for instance, quoted EXACTLY the same prices for EVERYTHING two days running, and was completely off-line on the third day.

So there is trouble in de system folks. We watch and wait, yes? {after we git r shovels 'n bury our gold )

THose Sons-O-Bitches ( hedge funds ) ............

Closed 195.10 -0.30 ( -0.15% )

Day's Range 195.01 - 195.87, 52-week Range 195.01 - 238.39. She made a new 52-week low on Friday of 195.01. Will she go lower ? You bet.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

Your insight on matters monetary is leagues ahead of mine; I am forced to beg your indulgence: What was or is Oanda? And what were they quoting that shortened their existence?

I have printed your PM opus and read it twice. Understand your approach to finding parity among fiats but I don't understand the ultimate values that CBs are striving for. Is there a desired convergence for all fiats in terms of grams Au?

Just read an item in Money re North Dakota,Montana and Minn. farmers blockading Canadian shipments of grain.

PEMBINA, N.D. ( AP ) -- Farmers protesting Canadian trade policies blocked highways and halted Canadian trucks Sunday along the U.S.-Canada border. About a dozen Canadian trucks were stopped at three North Dakota sites, said Col. Jim Hughes, commander of the state Highway Patrol. Farmers also protested at the border at Sweetgrass, Mont. Farmers are demanding a moratorium on Canadian grain imports until domestic grain prices rise above the cost of production.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0a.htm
--
Don't look now, but ...

From "The Great Reckoning" p. 352:

7. Profitability declines towards more normal levels as investment matures and new output is brought onto the market.

8. Commodity prices decline.

9. The farm economy goes into recession.

10. Interest rates fall,and as they do, hot money moves into financial assets,further stimulating the stock market.

11. As opportunities in the real economy subside, investment is concentrated on financial assets, leading to a stock market blow-off. [We are here]

12. The boom is self-limiting because debt contracted at high interest rates compounds faster than income, eventually requiring that owners of leveraged assets liquify their holdings, thus driving asset prices down.

13. Real estate sags.

14. Some trigger such as a credit squeeze, a major bankruptcy, fraud, or simply the slowing the real economy reveals the overvaluation of assets.

15. The stock market crashes, credit contraction intensifies, the money supply implodes, and depression ensues, with returns on previous investment falling to subnormal rates.

16. Real interest rate skyrocket, even as nominal rates fall, further reducing ecoconomic activity.

17. Unemploment skyrockets because real wage rates rise.

18. Wages and prices are cut as the system winds down.

19. Bingo. You have been in deflation some time.

These guys have the scenario just about right, even if the timing was off!

Thanks for the info.

I look at......and from EVERY angle I look at it says that gold is going lower, lower, lower.......and Glenn is buynig 60 gold calls tomorrow. Hmmmmmmmmmm........oh well........tick-tock, tick-tock........the gold mouse fell outta the clock.............. ( BONK ) ..... ( ! ) .

Pick up your weekly charts and take a look-see. The trend is still smokeythebear's friend. With a decent chance of new lows being made.

Aurator - what does your wave friend say? 270.......250?..........pray tell.....

sell the rallies? I say..............WITH GUSTO!

away........to watch gold fall offa da cliff
ear........ ( duh ) ...



off to make gingerbread houses and sip buttered rum drinks.........ohmy!

forgot to show the chart with the overbought stochs.............
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif
away.......I hear people screaming at me........
evvytime

Major cycle low concurrent with gold around the first two week
of March.Not expecting the CRB to go lower than 192.
Grains to go lower until March and Energy rising to offset.

The recent German and European rate cuts were wait and see reactions to Greenspan's triple rate drop that temporarily saved the day.
As soon as the dollar started to renew its fall the Euro squad threw in their full support.

The plan -is to continue the dollar strenght by making it the currency sink of last resort.

Even with Greenspan at Quarter Back and Lll'Bob slicing thru the line or snaring Big Al's bullets with forward protection by the Euro Squad and immoral support from a captive media hidding the dirty deals; this is not the team we want to go with into the future.

Gold is going to -$100. They will pay you to go to the CB vaults and cart it away ( whats left of it that is...... ) !

I don't know, if it were any other year I might agree. But leaving any kind of deflation argument out the picture for now, can't we expect a good year from the southern half of the pretty blue planet this winter ( their summer ) ? I hear the weather is going to be nice this year making for great possibilities in the commodities storage business. *grin*. That doesn't seem like a very good picture, especially if you bring it all back together and you're looking at the possibility of lower demand.

Bloomberg is quoting the Rubin resignation rumour.

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topww2.html

Well the Feds admit it. They will take and redistribute resources as they see fit to handle Y2K. See below.

So will the federal government, predicted John Koskinen, the chair of
the president's Y2K council. "People are generally concerned about the
infrastructure: Will the lights stay on, will you get a dial tone? Thus
far, judging by the first assessments being done on the power area,
companies have been candid."

Koskinen said the government would be moving from contingency planning
to a crisis-management phase. Responding to a question about
electrical-power failures, Koskinen said, "In a crisis and emergency
situation, the free market may not be the best way to distribute
resources.... If there's a point in time where we have to take resources
and make a judgement on an emergency basis, we will be prepared to do
that."

Earl-My appreciation of the whole [sorely, wickedly tempted to say 'hole'] is that the POG in SDR is more the reality than the POG in USD.

USD is a Potemkin price, a 'feel good' price if you will. At the moment, one almost suspects the BIS 208 might be it. Have more work to do on thisbecause what does 208 SDR do to my other lil fiats. I'm almost there, but not quite yet In short, at this point one has suspicions, but not hard conclusions! {:- ) )

Oanda is a Swiss confection, rich with information.
http://www.oanda.com/index.shtml

If one is tracking currencies, they give -to my mind-the most complete info ( hi/low/median etc. )

European Central Banks declassify gold as reserve assest. Threats of future sales. Can anyone assign credibility to such???????????

Some remember it always. Everytime I look at my father. I am both proud and thankful. He is a Pearl Harbor survivor. I also think of those whose fathers did not return and can only imagine the loss they have felt throughout their lives. It's a true reminder of the lunacy we call war. The sadness of it is what has been done with the peace and freedom so many sacrificed for????

Brother Tom, check your e-mail...

DON'T PANIC! Friday, 12/4/98 POG SDR 208, Fiat grams at 206,
POG USD at 292.8 ( I think that was it ) ...so we are in the ballpark...
unless something really nasty has happened, and they can't find
sufficent cover...
Off to dinner!

SAN DIEGO ( AP ) -- Eleven pipe bombs believed to have been made by the same person and randomly placed around San Diego County were found over a 12-hour period, authorities said. No one injuries were reported, but authorities say the devices were real and could have seriously injured someone.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne0a.htm
--
Of general interest, some looney causing problems on the coast.

the sentiment in your post...the entire post...

That URL goes to a quote by Princeton, the renegade Armstrong outfit. Armstrong has obviously committed himself to shorting silver and I wonder why he wants everyone to believe his "huge stockpile" tale? I might take stock in some honest analysis from a disinterested source in the know, but let's face it, even the people who don't have a ripping clue on Mars what's going on have a vested interest in what they spout as gospel here. --Al

Just asking, but is anyone out there with a
positive thought on gold tonight!!!Sounds like
the consensus is down the sewer................

"E" day, they put aside law, COMMUNITY LAW, that it took five years to get signed off? I don't thinnnnnnk so.... {:- ) )

I guess from a purely technical standpoint I would have to disagree wrt to gold going down. If you look at just about any other financial time-series of prices over the past two years, the fractal noise characteristics resemble a random walk, with a slight tendency towards a persistent trend ( the DJIA being a case in point, the persistent trend is up ) . Slightly more buyers than sellers over a long period of time.

Price of gold bullion is absolutely correlated ( non-random ) over the same time period. The time-series are anti-persistent. Any trend ( up or down ) is very rapidly reversed. This behavior suggests that lower prices are strongly associated with buying, and higher prices are strongly associated with selling. The coupling between buying and selling based on the price is very robust. There is a lot of tension there.

With apologies to Mandelbrot and Van Ness, the continuous form of the equation describing the behavior of the price time series is:


P ( t ) = 1/gamma ( H+0.5 ) {-infinity[integral]t} ( t-t' ) ^ ( H-0.5 ) dP ( t' ) for 0 less or = t'less or = t

For gold, H is around 0.25, for the DJIA, H is around 0.55. FWIW.

Unless H for gold changes, I don't think the price is going to go much higher or lower in the near future. Since this statement is a tautology, don't expect me to defend it............ %- )

I'll take a shot at it.

pdeep quoted a piece from The Great Reckoning. How do you believe the price of gold might behave in such a scenario as appears to be unfolding now?

I'd say:

1 ) Money flows out of the real economy into financial assets ( stocks and bonds )
2 ) Panic
3 ) Money flows out of financial assets into hard assets ( gold )

Money stays in hard assets until it's safe to come out and play.

-EJ

Are you suggesting that 'they're' buying the dips and selling the rallys?

U provide strength to a doubting Tommasso.

What happened to the looming launch of the
Euro currency,Y2K disasters,and the spectre
of the crashing stock markets and subsequent
flight to safety in gold???? Oh no forget
that and whatever she in going to hell......

THANKS!

I'll take a shot too *grin*. Instead of falling into a serious deflation the powers that be decide to print us out of it and dump tons of cash into the economy, but suddenly Asia and the rest of the world start getting better and dump all their US dollars back into the economy causing the dollar value to drop off against everything, and gold soars in the presence of inflation.

items taking place on the worlds stage...all that effects gold certainly is not financial...nope...not at all...

Machinegunner: )

TOLERANT-Could you posssibly do a clarification
of your reference to Venezuela.TIA

Heh! Being a freshman in matters of gold trading here at Kitco University, I could not hazard a guess at who "they" are. Maybe there are many "theys." All I can say is that the gold price time series is behaving very abnormally relative to other financial time series I have analyzed. The noise characteristics leave little up to "random interactions." You might expect that downward trends or upward trends would be re-enforced a lot more than they are. But the exact opposite is true.

With 78 percent of the vote counted, Chavez had 56 percent compared to 40 percent for Yale-educated businessman Henrique Salas Romer, according to official results from the National Electoral Council.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/top/120698/topstory_26771.html

Another point about the CRB turning around come spring. Hasn't it been the case in the past than when there is a recession in commodities that it tends to play itself out over a number of years before getting better ? The CRB hasn't been on the down-trend for that long ( it seems like forever ) . I'm just thinking of all the over-production that still has to work it's way through the system. Oil producers haven't cut back one little bit, and for the CRB to go skyward you'd have to have a rash of mergers, plant closings, and unfortunately, farms getting repo'd by the banks, before excess production was worked out to a level that higher demand started pulling people back into the game. Nah, I don't think it's over, not in spring, not this century. The machine is still in high gear pounding out "stuff" faster than people can buy it. Who knows, maybe demand will pick up, but these things usually take a while. One thing is for sure, when something starts getting beaten up and heads into the tank, people will call the bottom all the way down. It's not until nobody even thinks about it that the bottom gets put in place, it happens when nobody is looking. That's why I smile whenever I see people moving back into the Nikkei because it won't put in a bottom until nobody even cares about it anymore. Example: When is the last time anyone suggested that people invest in cash, that is, saving money. Seems to me that savings in cash might be due for a little bull market *grin*.

http://www.metro.net/cam/

Haggis

I wonder what Martin Armstrong has against silver, other than his shorts.
AFR's article is just another good example of the media's support for the anti precious metals crowd.

pdeep: I will spend some time analyzing your 22:52. Is gamma the gamma function? I don't really know what H is. I assume P is a probability -- normallized price?

I am more familiar with wavelet analysis for extracting the fractal nature of the time series. Daubuchet's analysis -- usually. The fibonacci series hops out -- qualitatively, anyway. How does your formula relate to wavelet analysis?

Know anything about Wavepacket analysis? I am still looking for a good paper on it.

Thanks. Did you know Kiwi is mathematically inclined as well?

Printing money ( generating debt ) and getting it into the real economy are two different things. The money only becomes "real" when the debt is repaid. When foreign countries sell their dollar reserve assets, they are not selling dollars, they are selling debt. Those aren't "dollars" coming back home to the US. Nobody is going to be able to use those dollars to buy any goods or services. Those goods and services were already bought from the coutries holding the "dollar reserve assets." When those debts come home, they will manifest as much higher interest rates. Credit will evaporate. A deflationary crunch will ensue, since there will be less liquidity available.

A puff and a gulp back at ya! And one to those who DO know and understand. And a double to those who DID know and understand!

Of course you are correct. The assumption that I made was that the government, to some extent at least, would be forced to push some of that debt into the money supply. Not a valid assumption as they could always reduce costs, let rates take off, or maybe raise taxes.

EB,Pdeep: From following daily patterns, I am inclined to agree with PDeep that gold is at least in a channel. RJ has pretty good insight on this, and he is pretty emphatic about which way we are going. But -- doesn't look like oil prices will rise anytime soon due to production cutbacks -- without war or other external disruption. So we are not likely to have a permanent boost from commodity prices. The EURO will proebably be a boost to gold bullion -- success or not.

However, there is one item that technical analysis may not tell us, as I suspect it did not in Oct 97, though the trend in the CRB was suggestive at the time. And that is -- another gold 'fire sale'. It is quite clear to me that South America is on the brink, or nearly over it. The IMF's history at preventing financial crashes is dismal so far -- delaying the inevitable, at best. No permantent financial fixes by the IMF. So -- we must be on our toes -- unless we can convince each other that no one will panic and sell gold bullion.

Even then, I doubt gold will go much below 280/oz. But it could do another number on gold equities.

A few more of these gold fire sales, a healthy ( ? ) downturn in the US markets, and gold equities will be a much better long term bet.

They have silver investors believing that with shortfalls of 150 to 200 million ounces that those who can make up the difference are going to sell at these prices or lower prices.
Looks like someones been doing a little hanky/panky over the past few years.
Seems that the LBMA and the Bullion Banks have their sticky fingers in this one.

http://www.aps.org/BAPSAPR97/abs/S1600.html

TOKYO ( AP ) -- The U.S. dollar gained against the yen Monday morning as traders scrambled to cover short, or oversold, positions. Japanese stock prices rose moderately. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 83.52 points, or 0.57 percent, to 14,723.49 points to close the morning session. On Friday, the average closed down 57.11 points, or 0.39 percent. The dollar bought 118.86 yen at midday, up 0.54 yen from late Friday in Tokyo but below its late New York level of 118.95 yen on Friday. The U.S. currency had dipped early in the morning on reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin had expressed a desire to resign. But the dollar later recovered as traders covered short positions. Concerns about a new bout of financial troubles in Brazil were capping the dollar's rise, however, analysts said.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0f.htm

This is off the topic but my son is considering
a two month trip to Venezula playing semi pro
sports.Sounds a bit unstable what????????????
Trying to collect as much information as possible
to help with the decision.

in Venezuela...I will say this...athletes are for the most part left alone...it seems that even the USA and IRAN take off the political gloves when it comes to sports...wrestling just in the last year or so...

Just a hunch but if it is baseball or soccer all should be well...