Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:01 - ID#20359)
Carmack, this got trapped in yesterday so I reposted it...wish I could help more...
Date: Sun Dec 06 1998 23:59
tolerant1 ( Carmack, Namaste' gulp and a puff...I am not aware of the present hands on situation ) ID#20359:
in Venezuela...I will say this...athletes are for the most part left seems that even the USA and IRAN take off the political gloves when it comes to sports...wrestling just in the last year or so...

Just a hunch but if it is baseball or soccer all should be well...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:09 - ID#174103)
It takes me longer to get this stuff than true mathematicians I know. Ah well. In answer to your questions, gamma is indeed the gamma function. P is simply the price at time t. The function is from Mandelbrot.

There is a good paper in Science on wavelet analysis done after a Hilbert transform. I'll post the full reference Monday evening. The problem of non-stionarity of the input time series remains when you use wavelets.

The method I developed for getting the fractal dimension of the trace of time series is under patent protection. It has the advantage of working with non-stationary time series, and works well for relatively small numbers of data points. ( Anything over 100 ) . A financial services company of Canadian origin is doing research using the method with some interesting results. Time will tell if is a worthwhile pursuit.

H is simply the Hurst exponent, and relates to the fractal dimension D as H = 2-D. 0 less or = to D less or = 2.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:09 - ID#386245)
That Rubin is one smart rat...
...heading for the lifeboat.
What's that white thing in the distance??
Aussie gold shares very dull. Closed -3.7 ( -.33% )
CRB index at 21 year lows.
Look out belooooooooooooooooooow!!!
Do your seat belts up nice and tight ladies and gents.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:11 - ID#431200)
Chavez Elected Venezuelan President
DECEMBER 06, 22:18 ESTChavez Elected Venezuelan President By STEVEN GUTKINAssociated Press Writer CARACAS, Venezuela ( AP )  Former Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez, who staged a bloody coup attempt six years ago, was elected president of Venezuela on Sunday  a stunning blow to the political and economic establishment that has ruled the country during 40 years of democracy. People poured into the streets, dancing, setting off fireworks and honking horns in celebration of what many viewed a victory of the poor over a political elite that has failed to ease poverty and control rampant corruption. ``Venezuela is being born again,'' Chavez declared as results were revealed. ``Once again, the people of Simon Bolivar have shown themselves to be a grand people,'' he told the Venevision television network. Chavez often invokes South American liberation hero Bolivar in his speeches. With 78 percent of the vote counted, Chavez had 56 percent compared to 40 percent for Yale-educated businessman Henrique Salas Romer, according to official results from the National Electoral Council. ``I want to say to all Venezuelans that not only do I accept my adversary's victory, I also wish him much luck because his luck is Venezuela's luck,'' Salas said at his campaign headquarters in Caracas. Chavez, who will assume the presidency Feb. 2, immediately appealed for national ``reconciliation'' and sought to assure investors that he would pursue prudent economic policies. He said he would not impose exchange controls or other radical economic measures as his opponents have claimed. ``We are going to instill confidence, and that's my first message to investors,'' Chavez said. ``You the investor, if you have capital abroad, bring it here.'' For the first time, neither of Venezuela's two traditional parties fielded candidates. In an effort to head off a Chavez victory, the center-left Democratic Action Party and the center-right COPEI Party dumped their respective candidates during the past week and threw their support to Salas, who had been running second to Chavez in the polls. Until this week, Salas, a former state governor, had taken great pains to distance himself from Democratic Action and COPEI  aware that most Venezuelans blame them for squandering the world's largest oil reserves outside the Middle East. ``Nothing like these elections has happened in Venezuela's political history,'' U.S. Ambassador John Maisto said. In 1992, Chavez led 15,000 rebel soldiers who tried and failed to overthrow Venezuela's democratically elected government. Dozens of people were believed have died in the attempt, though the actual number was never clear. His critics asserted he would impose a leftist dictatorship and roll back free-market economic reforms. Because of this, his candidacy was seen as a warning by much of Latin America. Chavez's leftist Patriotic Pole coalition, which calls for fewer privatizations and a slowing of free-market economic reforms, already won a plurality of Congress in Nov. 8 regional elections, breaking the two traditional parties' 40-year political stranglehold. Chavez's call for a new constitution and the dissolving of Congress has scared investors and exacerbated an economic crisis. Foreign oil companies, including Exxon, Mobil, Shell and British Petroleum, have put some of their investment plans on hold.
Venezuela is the number one exporter of oil to the United States.
An economic crisis caused by a 12-year low in oil prices has made making ends meet all but impossible for most Venezuelans, whose standard of living has been steadily declining for more than 15 years.
The campaign took on overtones of class warfare. Chavez's militaristic rhetoric terrified middle and upper class Venezuelans, many of whom have already fled to Miami. ``He's a crazy man on the loose, a communist,'' said Elena Alamos, an elderly woman casting her vote in Caracas's upper class Altamira district. Chavez voted Sunday amid some 1,000 supporters roaring, ``Chavez! Chavez!'' and ``Viva Venezuela!'' As he drove away, throngs of teenagers chased after his white van. Street celebrations broke out throughout the country Sunday evening; people donned Chavez's trademark red parachutist's beret and hung Venezuelan flags from balconies. ``Down with the oligarchy!'' shouted one woman standing outside Chavez's Caracas headquarters. The voting Sunday was orderly, and turnout was high for Venezuela at 65 percent. Among the trailing candidates was former Miss Universe Irene Saez, who had led the polls until earlier this year. On Sunday, she won 3 percent of the vote, according to the partial results. DECEMBER 06, 17:35 EST

Venezuelans Ecstatic Over Chavez By BART JONES
Associated Press Writer CARACAS, Venezuela ( AP )  They held flowers, chanted and walked in a solemn procession.It wasn't a saint they were paying homage to, but Hugo Chavez, the leader of a bloody 1992 coup attempt who was the favorite to win Sunday's presidential election. The faithful began lining up hours before El Comandante arrived to vote at a church-run preschool in eastern Caracas. They hoped to get a glimpse of the man they think will punish the corrupt and reward the oppressed. ``Chavez is the salvation of the country,'' said Jose Vincente Acosta, a retired musician. For millions of poor people fed up with decades of corruption, the 44-year-old cashiered lieutenant colonel is a savior. ``Corruption has become a career in this country,'' said university student Humberto Oropeza. The crowd broke into delirious cheers when Chavez's jeep appeared. National guardsmen carrying machine guns were barely able to open a path for the vehicle. Chavez finally emerged, wearing a suit and tie but not his trademark red parachutist's beret, and muscled his way to the school's door. Crushed by the roaring throng, his wife, Maria Isabel, made it, too, but she clutched her neck in pain and cried. Inside, the candidate cast his vote and spoke to reporters. At one point, about 50 people burst through a side door from the adjacent church to try to see him. Outside, people climbed up trees and light poles and stood atop telephone booths and trucks to get a view. Chavez finally came out, fought his way through the swarm again and escaped into the vehicle. The crowd screamed and the candidate sped off, heading to an undisclosed location to await the election results.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:11 - ID#277224)
Thanks.As you can imagine,it is an area of much
concern and a big decision to make.Would be good
to uncover a few stats or information on crime
and violence.Embasy in Venezula could possibly
provide some direction,

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:21 - ID#254321)
I don't understand much of what you posted either.
tolerant1: Part of the reason you don't understand what you posted is that the authors have their own lingo. Perhaps this will help, and it is relevant. It is a summary of how Quantum mechanics relates to our reality.

We have learned from Quantum mechanics that matter can be described by wave functions ( probabities that a photon or other particle will be somewhere or elsewhere ) . We also know from Bell's theorem and Bell's inequality that particles moving in one end of the universe are intimately ( and instantaneously? ) linked to other particles. Mind-boggling!

Bell's theorem and inequality seem to tell us that everything in the Universe is determined somehow in a manner that should preclude causality. But, we do know there is such a thing as free will, because living beings do tend to move about independently-partially, at least. Nothing in life repeats itself -- exactly.

So -- what is so significant about this is that part of our reality must be pre-determined. Little ( fractal-wavelet-wavepacket ) elements of our existence -- including the space-time we live in are probably predetermined in some manner. But we are made of a patchwork of many of these wavepackets. The crysals of a magnet are a perfect example of this -- these domains can be altered at will, some getting larger, some smaller. But the basic fractal elements are still there -- it is just that their size and weight can be changed.

Even the stock market is predetermined in some way -- it too has fractal wavelet elements that make it up. But -- it is very hard for us humans to see the fractal nature in real time -- but it is there. Best seem after the fact. 20-20 hindsight, I guess. What gives the markets its random nature is that the 'wavepackets' that make up the market can grow and shrink just like those magnetic domains.

So -- the bottom line is that if we understand the Quantum mechanics of markets and human behavior -- the quantum nature of life -- we understand how to use the fibonacci series and fractal analysis to trade the markets. What fascinates me is that study of the fractal ( quantum ) nature of the markets also offers another ( greater ) good -- understanding the fractal nature of nature/life/the universe itself. If I was independently wealthy, I would not trade the markets at all, and would focus only on those more fundamental questions.

Hope you enjoy this.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:24 - ID#20359)
Carmack, Namaste' gulp and puff...these links may be what you are looking for...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:26 - ID#254321)
pdeep: I appreciate your response. I am vaguely familiar with the Hurst terminology, though I am a neophyte at this kind of analysis. All I got in my Physics training that relates even remotely to this area was Shannon's analysis of the entropy of communication, a work that is still quoted.

I have some reading to do before I can go further.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:29 - ID#20359)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff...and thanks for the brief...I have printed it out and will
delve into it further...I remember a book that I found incredibly interesting and yet much of it escaped me was entitled Godel, Escher and is a link...You would probably understand much that lost me while trying to scale the walls of thought within its pages...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:31 - ID#277224)
By taking a quick look around it is pretty obvious
that this sucker is with us.Maybe it is all this
discussion tonight but this does not look promising.
I guess that the big question is whether it is any
more looming than, say only a short time ago and if
the Fed might pull another unexpected drop in interest
There are multifarious factors that can exert upward
pressure on gold but can they prevail against the lack
of inflation is the question???One must be impressed
with the way gold was fairly stable last week.So there is
always room for optimism...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:38 - ID#290281)
Those were pretty gold coins
Seen on CNN tonight. They showed newly minted golden eagles, krugerrands, and maple leafs and said gold coin sales were up 100%. They said that because of the volatility in the stock market and Y2K problem, people were starting to buy quality and security. Yes, they said it loud a clear " A flight to quality" were the words of the night.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:39 - ID#339274)
Envy & CRB
Manufactured goods are going to be cheap and cheaper,but food and energy are going up.The final washout in the oil sector is happening now,
the banks will start to repossess very quickly the marginal players,
this will be the time to buy the Chevrons and their brethern.
Liquidity is the name of the game,loss of it will put any indebted
company into bankruptcy.The seven sisters ,or six now,will buy producing
oilfields 10 cent on the dollar.What a deal.They did it before in 1972,
1986 and I don't doubt a repeat performance is coming up aside of having
a cyclical low next March for the CRB.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:40 - ID#24135)
Loral gets a mention ..
Red Alert
December 7, 1998

Weekend Revelation of CIA Leaks to Hughes Electronics Baffling and Explosive

On Saturday morning, December 5, both the New York Times and the
Washington Post ran stories claiming that officials of Hughes
Electronics had been warned by agents of the U.S. Central
Intelligence Agency that they would be called to testify before
Congress on the sale of satellite technology to China. This
report is explosive because, if true, these agents would be
guilty of a massive security breach. Since the story appeared
simultaneously in both the Times and the Post, this was a
deliberate decision on somebody's part to plant explosives
beneath someone in the CIA. Now, although we only know what we
read in the newspapers, it is more than enough to make us wonder
what in the world is going on.

The unofficial official explanation from the Agency was bizarre.
It acknowledged that CIA officials had informed Hughes people
that they were going to be summoned by the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence ( SSCI ) to testify on technology
transfers to China. Moreover, it was acknowledged that the leak
had been approved by the Agency. They did not claim that this
was some unauthorized accident by a junior employee. The
official counter-leaks went on to assert that, whoever approved
it, it was not CIA Director George Tenet. The Associated Press
cited an anonymous CIA official as asserting, "This was not the
kind of thing that reached Tenet's desk." So the party line is
that CIA employees did warn Hughes officials, that they were
authorized to do so by someone with enough clout to authorize
such a thing, but that the authorization didn't come from the top
because DCI had no knowledge of the SSCI proceeding.

That's a little hard to believe. The DCI, we would think,
normally likes to stay on top of anything having to do with the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Given that this is an
already highly sensitive matter that has directly affected the
President himself, it is more than a little hard to believe that
Tenet doesn't keep himself informed of every detail. But let's
assume that he did not authorize the leak. Let's also accept
that the people who did the leaking were authorized to do so.
Who did the authorizing?

Hughes is a major contractor for the intelligence community.
Hundreds or even thousands of intelligence employees for all
sorts of agencies have daily contact with Hughes employees. But
few of these are senior enough to authorize a leak of this sort.
And, more important, none of these GS-12s have access to
sensitive SSCI papers. We would expect that anything involving
the SSCI, the President, campaign contributions, and possible
criminality is handled at stratospheric levels in the Agency. If
not Tenet, then who in the CIA has access to SSCI-sensitized
information? Who has the ability to authorize lower level
officials with daily contact with Hughes to pass on information?
Who can access Agency's command and control mechanism to pass on
such an authorization? Who has that much clout AND a reason to
issue such a risky authorization?

We give up too.

So let's try to approach this from a different direction. What
would be the reason for the leak? The obvious answer is to warn
Hughes that it is coming. Well, when you think about it, that's
a pretty feeble reason. Hughes officials were not about to be
kidnapped off the street to testify. A nice letter would be sent
on Senate stationary and a date, several days or weeks away would
be arranged. The Hughes people would have plenty of time to
prepare their testimony. Why risk all of this just to give the
Hughes people some extra time to prepare? Besides, the Hughes
folks had to know that all sorts of investigations were going on.
They read the papers.

According to the Post story, there is an innocent explanation
being leaked by the CIA. This explanation revolves around a CIA
analyst called Ronald Pandolfi, who testified to the SSCI in the
Fall of 1998 that Hughes had been "too aggressive" in marketing
technology to China. Pandolfi's testimony originated in a study
he did in 1995. Back then, Hughes executives had complained to
CIA officials about Pandolfi's research. The office that deals
with Hughes reprimanded Pandolfi. After Pandolfi's testimony
this year, this office informed Hughes of Pandolfi's views. It
also offered Hughes that it would give the SSCI a list of Hughes
officials that could refute Pandolfi's views. So, it was only in
this sense that Hughes was told that they would be called to
testify. Only in this sense??!!

What this unofficial explanation implies is that it was not the
fact that they were going to be called before the SSCI that was
being conveyed to Hughes, but rather that the issue before the
SSCI was Pandolfi's report from 1995. What they were being told
by the CIA was that the Pandolfi report was in the SSCI's hands.
Moreover, since Pandolfi had interviewed Hughes officials in
writing that report, they had a pretty good idea of what
questions he had asked and what answers he had gotten. They knew
the internal thinking at SSCI. Passing this on to Hughes was a
major security breach. It told Hughes a great deal about what
the SSCI knew and when they knew it. The CIA official who
authorized the leak to Hughes had no authority to do so, because
the CIA didn't own the information. It belonged to SSCI and the
U.S. Senate.

Why go to all the trouble? What is the issue here? Forget all
of the comings and goings and conspiracies for a moment and let's
concentrate on why someone at the CIA in an extremely senior
position would want to take this kind of risk at all. What could
Hughes have been doing that would be so sensitive to the CIA or
to someone at the CIA to take such a risk? So far as we can see,
there are four possible tracks for explaining this:

Track 1 -- The Old Boys Network Explanation: Hughes and the CIA
have been working together for generations. Complex systems of
personal and institutional connections have developed until the
lines distinguishing the two organizations have begun to blur. A
contract worker from Hughes who has been working at an
intelligence facility for twenty years may be getting a check
from Hughes, but his identity is with his facility. Moreover,
the CIA is supposed to control its contractors. When Pandolfi
reported that Hughes had gone over the line in China, this was a
direct attack on the CIA people responsible for monitoring
Hughes. The CIA people went to bat for Hughes, Hughes went to
bat for the CIA. This whole thing is nothing more than the
standard conflation of contractors with Federal agencies that has
been going on since the founding. Clean it up and move on.

Track 2 -- The Criminal Conspiracy Explanation: The Hughes
transfer of technology to China was a deliberate security breach
by Hughes ( and perhaps other companies like Loral ) for the simple
purpose of making money. Certain officials of the CIA were aware
that the technology transfer was taking place but either failed
to report it or were personally part of the conspiracy.
Pandolfi's discovery threatened to expose corruption at the CIA,
so every attempt was made to discredit him and keep his report
from the SSCI. When it got to the SSCI, Hughes was told so that
they could start the shredders running and transfer vulnerable
employees to Chad. Staff at SSCI got wind of it and went to the
newspapers. This would explain the claim that Tenet didn't know
about any of this but that it was an authorized leak. Under this
theory ( for which we haven't a shred of evidence ) , whoever did
the authorizing may have some interesting Swiss bank accounts as

Track 3 -- The Political Conspiracy Explanation: The President
has been charged, among other things, with permitting the
transfer of sensitive technologies to China in exchange for
political contributions for the 1996 elections. Pandolfi's work
was done in 1995, when the fundraising was roaring along. The
SSCI is studying the technology transfer issue at the same time
that the House Impeachment committee is doing something ( though
we can't quite figure out what ) . Henry Hyde just announced that
the impeachment committee will not be considering campaign
finance issues. Someone at SSCI, aware that there may be some
smoking guns in the SSCI's extremely classified archives, is
taking advantage of this breach to frantically wave his arms in
an attempt to get Henry Hyde's shell-shocked attention. So, this
assumes that there was a criminal conspiracy by the President to
take campaign money in exchange for permitting technology
transfers to China. It also assumes that there is now a
political conspiracy by the President's enemies on the SSCI to
make this public before the impeachment committee signs off on
their recommendation.

Track 4 -- There was in fact a major technology transfer program
to China, but it was a Trojan horse. In other words, while major
technology was transferred to China, the technology was either
carefully flawed or embedded with some sort of monitoring system
that would permit U.S. intelligence to monitor its use and
neutralize its capabilities. Hughes and other companies were
participating in a complex, covert operation that had to appear
to be a security failure on the part of the United States in
order to achieve its ends. The CIA, having recruited Hughes for
a covert operation, must help Hughes cover its tracks. This
conspiracy is so sensitive that the CIA never mentioned it to the
SSCI and it is now leaning on Hughes to keep the secret. In this
scenario, Hughes and the CIA are patriotic heroes and the SSCI is
blundering around, lousing everything up. ( By the way, we have
no evidence whatever for this track. In addition we are not
revealing anything to the Chinese with this speculation because
the Chinese are a lot smarter than STRATFOR and much more
paranoid. We have nothing to teach them about being suspicious ) .

Let's throw another one in. Remember right after the Wye
Agreement, the Israelis announced that Jonathan Pollard, the
Israeli spy, would be released as part of the agreement?
Remember that he wasn't released? Remember that it leaked a few
days later that George Tenet had threatened to resign if Pollard
was released? Well, the only one who would have wanted to leak
that story was Tenet, because it made him look really good at the
agency. It also made Clinton look like a wimp. Clinton couldn't
fire him at the time, because he couldn't afford to look like he
was caving in to the Israelis. Clinton must have been extremely
annoyed with Tenet for the threat and the leak. If this affair
proves as damaging as it appears to be, Tenet's career is over,
regardless of what he knew. Maybe this is just the White House
taking care of a bit of unfinished business.

So, we have cronyism, criminal conspiracy, political conspiracy,
covert conspiracy and inside-the-beltway conspiracy to choose
from. We genuinely don't know which is the real story. But we
don't think it is trivial. This affair could be a wedge into a
very important and complex part of American history. Someone is
issuing an extremely public invitation to investigate a critical
issue with grave implications. It is almost as if someone is
painting a map. The revelation of this single, relatively minor
security breach could wind up explaining a great deal about the
recent past. There may be simple and innocent explanations.
There may be complex and dark explanations. But, for what little
they are worth, our instincts tell us that this is the place
where explanations begin.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:40 - ID#254321)
The 'have-nots' -- the people -- now have their say in Venezuela
Goldteck: Very interesting events in Venezuela witht the Chavez election. This must make the 'establishment' in South America very nervous. Just like the first democracy made all those kings and royalty nervous.

I wish I could put myself in Chavez' shoes and see how he will handle the economic situation. He presumably has no ties to the 'establishment', and hopefully has 'the peoples' interests at heart.

My guess is that he will lean in favor of the debtor rather than the financier. The same thing is happening in Brazil and Mexico. The people have had it -- they are saying 'enough'.

With regard to oil, my guess is that he will try to cut out alot of the middlemen, reducing the cost of producing oil. If he is a practical sort, he will want to maintain oil production.

Interesting times we live in -- the people are rising up. If we are lucky, South America will move more toward Democracy. So far the change has been peaceful.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:45 - ID#277224)
You must be a magician to come up with this info
so bloody fast...Impressed and thanks.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:49 - ID#222231)
Either Chavez plays ball with the powers that be or something will happen to him? IMHO. Time will tell. Pete

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:56 - ID#411163)
Carmack-I see deflation everywhere. Debt is being destroyed faster
than governments and banks can create it. The US is being pushed against the wall as the world tries to export its goods to us. AG is pissing into the wind, he can only delay what is coming. I assume he thinks he has some chance to stop this or minimize the results, at least to some certain parties. "We are surrounded and can attack in any direction" Thats a quote from a old war movie-seems to fit.
Its going to be an interesting year. They can always blame this mess on Y2K-thay may yet. I can hear them "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you"

(Mon Dec 07 1998 00:58 - ID#219363)
Interesting Text 1
[...] While the boom is in progress, there prevails a general tendency to buy as much as one can buy because a further rise in prices is anticipated. In the depression, on the other hand, people abstain from buying because they expect that prices will continue to drop. The recovery and the return to "normalcy" can only begin when prices and wage rates are so low that a sufficient number of people assume that they will not drop still more. Therefore the only means to shorten the period of bad business is to avoid any attempts to delay or to check the fall in prices and wage rates. [...]

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:00 - ID#254321)
Loral is up to their eyeballs -- with many others
John Disney: Fascinating post. I think the problem is that there is a 'civil war' going on somewhere in our government between two hidden factions. For example, is the CIA implicated in this scandal if they were ordered to deliver secret documents to certain individuals? For example, as I recall, John Huang had a CIA agent assigned to him -- something the President of the United States can do. If that agent was not willing to give John Huang secret information, another could have been assigned instead. And then -- John Huang apparently went accross the street to the Stevens building and faxed certain documents to the Riady's, who then relayed it to the Communist Chinese. Presumably the assigned CIA agent knew about this.

So -- alot of heads will roll if this stuff gets out -- but the forces that want all in the open are gaining strength, IMHO. Talk of treason is coming more evident.

What I really got a kick out of was the secret memo by someone -- either CIA or FBI, that stated that WJC was a security risk. These massive security leaks are going to come out eventually -- and many government leaders will have egg on their face. Some who are innocent are going to suffer, and some of the guilty ones may sneak by without getting collared. WJC is real good at not documenting anything he does -- he just assigns the dirty work to others. And -- they fall in his stead. Perhaps this time, a few will refuse to play dead for his benefit.

I still find it amazing that Webster Hubble is portrayed as a lazy lawyer who does nothing constructive. He sure did nothing for a long time in Arkansas. Wasn't he also a law partner with Hillary and Vince? I'll bet that was constructed as a cover to disguise his tracks in the business with Ron Brown and Vince Foster who are both conveniently dead.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:01 - ID#219363)
Interesting Text 2
The "interconnectedness" of the world's markets is primarily because of the dominance of this dollar as the closest thing the world has to a numeraire, the kind of hard accounting unit which gold once provided. The disturbance in Hong Kong and SEAsia is the result of errors made by the Fed, not by the poor bastards who are trying to stabilize their economies by linking their currencies to the dollar -- only to inherit the blunders our central bank is making. Alan Greenspan told Senate Banking in 1994 that if we were on a gold standard, the Mexico peso debacle would not have occurred. If we had a gold peg now, at $350, there would be a worldwide boom in stocks and bonds, not the kind of meltdown we've seen of late. You mention in your editorial that Greenspan should promise not to allow gold to fall below $300. That's something. But gold has to find its way back to $350, or the world will have to adjust to a long period of unnecessary price declines, economic weakness, and poverty that flows from this kind of dollar deflation.
Note that these things are being said over a year ago.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:05 - ID#219363)
Interesting Text 3
When a war ends and prices of goods in surplus fall, there will be those battered by excess inventories or by debts acquired by borrowing against future production at wartime prices. As Von Mises notes, they will clamour for "easy money," by which they mean the intervention of the central bank to buy government bonds with "new" money, which only the Fed can create. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Fed a checkbook with an unlimited number of blank checks, with which it can buy government bonds -- "monetizing debt." If the Fed attempts to stop a contraction by monetizing debt, it only will succeed in causing an inflation. On the other hand, if the Fed is faced with a deflation caused by a surplus in the demand for "new" money, it can of course arrest that deflation by supplying the new money, with no increase in inflation.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:08 - ID#254321)
Logging off!
Envy: That polyconomics post is just exactly what I was saying -- that our fiat currency inflation approach to eliminating recesions is very bad. Yes -- we did succeed in smoothing out the slumps in the business cycle -- fewer commodity price collapses.

But -- one day we are going to have a grandaddy of a hangover when the party ends -- and the euphoria will be swept away -- to be replaced by a very intense distrust of investment in the markets. Namely -- a depression of many years duration. Just like Japan.

If we had not tried to suppress the business cycle, we would have done much better in the long run.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:16 - ID#219363)
Interesting Text 4 (Final)
If Alan Greenspan today were to announce that he intended to raise the gold price from its clearly deflationary $286, he could do it by lowering the federal funds rate, which would require the monetization of debt, or he could simply monetarize debt and allow the funds rate to go wherever the market took it. When the price of gold rose from $350 to $385 following the Clinton tax increases ( the two events connected by a decrease in demand for dollar liquidity ) , Greenspan tried to get the gold price down by raising interest rates and nothing happened, because the higher rates were increasing the demand for liquidity as borrowers believed the rates would go higher, and the Fed was supplying more liquidity to prevent the fed funds rate from rising above its nominal target. The process only ended when the market observed the high rates had weakened the economy sufficiently to end the chance the Fed would raise rates higher.
JTF: If what you say is true then here is the instrument of destruction *grin*

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:17 - ID#277224)
Liked the quote.I do not know if it is easier to
contemplate what next year might precipitate or
what Monday may conjure up.Could be scary...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:43 - ID#220325)
Envy--Thank you for the CAD/Casting information
I will look it up

Paul Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:44 - ID#21484)
Market Report
The ABSA Mocatta Goldwatch weekly is now available at This issue is the last for 1998, but publication will resume early in January.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 01:57 - ID#153110)
@Pondering the Horizon
All post-war deflationary economic battlefield are littered with the corpses of customers who will never again qualify to borrow.

Banks never lend to people who need money.

When FEMA takes over utilities, what will the bond market do ? FEMA don't have to pay a dividend.

Look for the appearance of the socially sensitive corporation, that being one that is glorified and funded by Washington though it never makes a profit or pays a dividend.

We shall have more Economic Development By Government than any of us ever thought possible in the USA.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 02:26 - ID#153110)
@British North America
"On the back side of a Birth Certificate in Canada it states "Revenue Receipt"? Is this true ?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:00 - ID#240155)
Dear Michel Camdessus, a letter from S. Korea
Is it normal for the IMF to publish the letters from finance ministers and central bankers?

The following item is a Letter of Intent of the government of

Korea, which describes the policies that Korea intends to

implement in the context of its request for financial support from

the IMF. The document, which is the property of Korea, is being

made available on the IMF website by agreement with the

member as a service to users of the IMF website.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:03 - ID#240155)
oops if I had read a bit further I would have seen
that it is normal for the IMF to publish these. Lots of countries listed there.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:06 - ID#257148)
Calling all Chartists....
Dear Cognescenti
We have been reading of general commodity deflation, the CRB at levels unseen in the memory of most the fundie managers on the Street of Walls.
But Gold? What of gold? Has my precious deflated as much as the basket of other commodities?

I know that everyone here has seen my one original posting of Roy Jastram's The GOlden Constant so often there's no need to jam bandwidth.

I lack the ability ( being quite a dullard at things cartographical and scatological ) to draw charts of the relative purchasing power of the basket of commodities cf gold, BUT is Roy Jastram correct ( you still in the stratosphere, Mr Skylark? ) Is gold not deflating as much as the rest of the commodities? Can anyone graph us a graph?

I sure would like to look at that yellow snow.

Ask your broker: "Is gold a good hedge against inflation?" If he says, "Of course," look for ANOTHER broker. ( I need more crients )

"to determine whence we came and where we presently are - in order to hopefully foresee where we are going."

to hopefully foresee where none have hopefully foreseen before

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:39 - ID#81124)
Re: mozel's link to moneychanger
I looked in at the site below on mozel's suggestion. There is a horror story about the site's owner. It's comforting to know that there are government agencies protecting us from dangerous men like him.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:40 - ID#252391)
back after a break
Been away, just catching up, notice Kitco had a crash of its own....Seems talk is thick of deflation .....hardly the environment for gold. Maybe a fed funds rate cut would do the trick of getting commodities back on the road. It seems to me this has got to become a concern at some point to the FED. I fear however they are so set on fighting the last war that falling commodity prices are the least of their concerns. Suppose they ought to read up on the the history of the late 20's.

Stock markets are rallying over night. Lower interest rates for a while will stimulate demand in the equity sector but how long can PEs in the 30s be sustained while earnings fall.

The job report should be revised to offer an indication of which jobs are being lost and which gained. Manufacturing is down, service is up.

Lookslike another weak week for the metals.... we all wait for the Euro and possible reduction in Central Bank gold sales - what happens if there is not postive effect on GOld, then,,,,,,

(Mon Dec 07 1998 03:48 - ID#257148)
Is this a rhetorical question?
Dear Sherlock
Whence the $235m PDG "used" to buy into Kemps' gold mines? What is from profits? ( little chuckle ) Which Bankers have been obliging to throw money after a liar beside a hole in the ground?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:03 - ID#224230)
@aurator - Gold Constant
I missed your Roy Jastram Gold Constant Post - could you let me know when it was so I can go back and dig it up, I'd like to read that. Thanks.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:18 - ID#185448)
Good morning.
Gold boring.
Get me some coffee.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:28 - ID#210114)
Happy Pearl Harbor Day!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:39 - ID#240155)
SDRer or anyone
Am I correct in understanding that the IMF has SDR 55 trillion in outstanding loans?

Am I correct in understanding no member country is allowed to base the value of it's currency on gold?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:44 - ID#240155)
re: IMF assets
I only count less than SDR 70 billion in assets contributed by quota of members. Where do the rest of the SDR's come from, are they just imagined into existance? Is this what the allocations are?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:47 - ID#411440)
@ jims: I have never seen gold so rigidly and narrowly
range-bound as it has been over the past 3 days. This tightness
usually heralds a sudden change. It may be near term down.
But correct me if I'm wrong, we are fast approaching the Fed's
monthly opportunity to change interest rates ( Dec 17 ) .
They are presently at 4.0%. And one month lease rates are
at 1.48% ( Friday's ) So the forward rate is 4.0% - 1.48% or
2.52%. I strongly suspect that the gold carry is uneconomic
at these forward rates. When forward rates drop to between 2.2 and
and 2.4% there has always been a gold spike as gold is released
from the gold carry selling. If Greespan drops interest rates
in a week and a half by a quarter point, then we will be at 2.27%
forward rates for one month gold. At these levels, the profit
margin for the gold carry may disappear. Then the question
becomes, will the funds continue to operate the gold carry at
a loss?????? They may. The cost of a gold bull to hedge funds
is ruination. Watch for Dabchicks lease figures this morning.
If leases rise some more, the forward rate picture is much
less attractive to the funds.

if Greenspan drops interest rates by a quarter point per month
over the next 10 months, then forward rates become zero. There
can't be a gold carry at zero forward rates. This also
assumes lease rates remain at about 1.5%. If lease rates go
up, then the gold carry terminates even sooner. Let's say lease
rates go down also to zero. That gives us another 6 months
( at .25% per month ) before forward rates are zero. So that's
the lease rate picture for initiation of a gold bull. Sometime
between Dec 17 1998 and July 2000, forward rates will be zero,
and the gold market will be in fundamental undersupply.
Unless Greenspan raises interest rates. Now is he likely
to do that in a deflationary sell off in all markets??????????
Now we hear that Rubin is resigning after Xmas. The expression
about rats and sinking ships comes to mind.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:48 - ID#399147)
There is nothing happy about Pearl HArbor Day, I have not and never will forgive either the Japanese for the attack or our Lustrous Mr Roosevelt for knowing in advance and doing nothing!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:53 - ID#26793)
Taiwan CB cuts interest rates (just learned they also have a "Stock Stabilization Fund"

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:56 - ID#210114)
That's allright, you got 'em back at Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, and Tokyo..........

(Mon Dec 07 1998 04:59 - ID#210114)
Greenspan won't cut rates. He's worried that the Dow is in bubble mode again, and that the strong jobs growth figures indicate that the US is still powering along.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:02 - ID#26793)
U.K. under deflationary threat; Bank of England under pressure to cut rates

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:04 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up now.....
Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:04 - ID#252391)
Rhody - good analysis
Yes, gold has been in a tight range but that may just be because there is no interest or balanced interests. I doubt that the Fed will lowerr interest rates again in December - they may in January - low interest rates have not meant recovery in japan. Using the lower interest rate tool too much too soon may remove it completely as a tool when it is needed later on.

As you point out, at some point during this deflationary falling interest rate period, it may no longer be economical to lease gold. At that point I suspect the European countries will be selling gold to balance their budgets. How many years was gold artifically maintained at $35 per oz., through how many wars, through how many economic storms, through how may currency evolutions. On this board we have seen every reason coming why gold should rally. In January we have the big one THE EURO followed by the even bigger one Y2K.......if gold is no higher than $315 one year from now I will not be the least bit surprised.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:13 - ID#252391)
Hong Kong Stocks
HK stock index back up to 10,000.... I was in HK when it first went through 10,000 - euphoria abounded - there was another 50% left to the upside before a 50% decline. Thinking today about buying some HK stocks then remembered the government owns what 20% of the capitalization and more of the big stocks. At what point to they start selling. One might think they'd be dishing some out about now.

My question: has there ever been a point in time when the governements of the world were so involved in the markets, particularly the equity markets.???? I suppose it is just part of the natural evolution of things. As the markets have grown, the government, intrusive in all other aspects of our lifes and business, would have to get involved as saviors.

Guess for now I'll defer jumping into HK. - watch it jump 20%. Nice long trending market has HK been.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:14 - ID#411440)
@ Spock: European interest rates are now at 3%. If
the Fed. doesn't lower, he runs the risk of recreating the
conditions that deflated Asia and is now deflating Latin America.
The "flight to quality" is partly fear driven and partly interest
rate driven, but its effect is the same. As the bubble sucks
money out of the rest of the world, the world deflates, and
commodities sink.

Greenspan is in a box. If he lowers, he ignites a gold bull,
and if he doesn't lower, he causes a world depression. We
shall see how the markets behave over the next 9 sessions. If
the DOW sells off, he may feel easier about lowering. I personally
don't think he has much choice.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:31 - ID#263119)
Japan reflating?

The reflation is expected to induce the frightened consumers to start consuming. Is this logical?
They just might pile into inflation hedges.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:48 - ID#252391)
Good point again Rhody
The dollar is stronger overnight here and the bonds have come back from a sight decline to be a tick or two higher - flight to higher yields. If money does flow here it will reduce interest rates without the FED having to do anything. Haven't the market rates been ahead of the FED on the downside. Hasn't the FED just been playing catch up.

I would think a little inflation would be a good thing about now. Sentiment is getting very deflationary. Talking heads that didn't understand the concept 3 months ago are now experts.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 05:59 - ID#252391)
A quote from "Japan Reflating"
"So it is clear that any effective action the Bank of
Japan can take to refloat the Japanese economy
will inevitably lead to a weaker yen. How far
down can the yen go? I don't think a long-term
target of 160 to 180 to the dollar is
unreasonable. And it could happen very fast."

Now, if I remeber correctly strong dollar weak yen was bearish for gold - maybe the Japanese could join together and put some of their savings into gold - if their new post Deregualtion Phase II American Money managers would let them - their purchases might act as a countn erbalancing measure. I have some problem believing the evolution of an Asian currency board being built around a weakening currency.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:07 - ID#240155)
Euro, IMF gold backing not permitted?
Just for fun I have been reading the website for the IMF. Often I have read here that the Euro is expected to be backed by gold. I presume that the Euro or European central bank will be members of the IMF?

According to:

Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund


Section 2. General exchange arrangements

b ) Under an international monetary system of the kind prevailing on January 1, 1976, exchange

arrangements may include ( i ) the maintenance by a member of a value for its currency in terms of the special drawing right or another denominator, other than gold, selected by the member, or ( ii ) cooperative

arrangements by which members maintain the value of their currencies in relation to the value of the currency or currencies of other members, or ( iii ) other exchange arrangements of a member's choice.

see that OTHER THAN GOLD, aparently a nation can not join the IMF if it uses bases the value of it's currency on gold.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:24 - ID#341189)
Rubin leaving?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:29 - ID#9332)
Gold Sale rumor, here we go again.....
December 6, 1998
Dow Jones Newswires

Germany Mulls Approval Of Partial IMF Gold Reserve Sales

Dow Jones Newswires

BONN -- Germany is investigating whether it will agree to a partial sale of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves to finance debt rescheduling for developing countries, a finance ministry spokesman confirmed Sunday.

"We are examining the situation, and understand the IMF's desire to help these countries," finance ministry spokesman Torsten Albig said Sunday.
"Any decision on this must occur in close consultation with the Deutsche Bundesbank," Germany's central bank, he added.

"Those consultations are in progress and no decision is expected before next year," Albig said. In an advance copy of an article to be published Monday in Germany's weekly magazine Der Spiegel, Germany is considering giving up its former resistance to plans by the IMF to sell part of its gold reserves which amount to $30 billion in total.

The article also states that former Finance Minister Theo Waigel, together with his Italian and Swiss counterparts had prevented such sales of IMF gold reserves in the past.

-By Monica Houston-Waesch;49-228-215-717

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:32 - ID#348257)
Your brain food re debt, interest, and "usury" was tasty and easy on my digestion. For a taste of my core beliefs about purchase power of the monetary unit and gold, please read my essay "The Fiat K-Wave" at Gold ( the inimitable ) Eagle website. It is the most "recent" piece under the Astrological Investor logo at the Gold Digest section.

As well, my understanding of the scriptures ( most all of 'em, not just the bible ) has lead me to radical beliefs that many would find hard sayings and a threat to life as we know it. No problem. I have learned over time and through certain difficulties what my limits are and how to accept and work through the destiny, or "karma" if you will, that this present life has brought, and which past lives have made a necessity. The thoughts you have expressed about debt are foundational and essentially pure, yet had I avoided debt in any significant form, some of the best and most important "investments" and joys of this present life for myself ande my family would have been forfeited. The same goes for many of my contemporaries. Positing another, "what if" world of purer essence would have been of as much value as being a "libertarian" all these years. At least I got to own some property I could not have acquired any other way in this stretch of civilization. Like all things, there is a time and a place.

Some things are to be avoided, many perhaps at all costs. The 10 commandments seem to take care of them nicely. After that, I think the Law of God and the Word of scripture is open to a great deal of discussion. Warm, intelligent, and noble discussion. Talmudic, you might say.

In the end, of course, The Law is written in the heart. But I am sure you know this.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:37 - ID#348257)
Think Long and Hard
I hope you find this post. If not, I will try to catch up with you. Your Tarot reading for gold was BRILLIANT. You can read my cards any time!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:41 - ID#411440)
@ Aldebaron: Re gold and the IMF, wouldn't gold as a
reserve be under the "other arrangements of a member's choice"

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:43 - ID#9332)
Demand for dried food skyrocketing as we approach Y2K

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:45 - ID#252391)
That's the topper
IMF to sell gold . . . that'll keep the lid on gold for the better part of next year I suspect. Every rally now will be hit with that story. So much for the Euro, so much for Y2K, so much for the Asian buying - the sale of IMF gold until complete will keep a lid on gold as tight as ???? as tight as ???? well as tight as the $300 lid on gold.

Call me in 10 years when every Junior gold mine is bankrupt and the seniors now are the juniors of tomorrow and the IMF and the Central Banks have sold their gold - then perhaps we'll get above $315.

Currently, for me there isn't a gold investment worth consideration. The only precious metal stock to own, in my opinion, in Stillwater and that will likely have a rocky ride up to about $50 from $35 by year end '99. That assumes we don't deflate ourselfs into a full scale recession/depression.

Think I'll buy a bank like Citicorp.....

(Mon Dec 07 1998 06:53 - ID#263119)
Found even on the AMZN board:

"It seems that the overall market is betting on the fact that Brazil will be able to clean up its economy and not put Lat-Am into a recession + avoid devaluation.

With interest rates 30%+ ( Europe lowered them to 3% ) , IMF demanding higher taxes and less public spending to improve the budgetary situation wouldn't You say this is THE best way to put the country into one of its deepest recession ever? Given the higher taxes and lower public spending, I think the only way out for Brazil is to devalue its currency substantially. This would allow them to cut those interest rates to normal levels while the increased taxes would reduce part of the inflationary pressure which would come with the devaluation. One thing is for sure: an economy can not live with 30%+ interest rates for long without a deep and long recession esp. if budgetary policy demands higher
taxes and lower public spending.

Do You agree that the market is betting a the most favourable outcome in Brazil although it seems to be the less likely one?"

I guess we agree with him. Build your short position.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:00 - ID#411440)
@ jims: If the lease rate scam was terminating, you
suggested that actual physical sales of gold would be initiated
by CBs. I posted on Sunday that the Fed. might sell gold if
it could get Congress to agree. We both forgot the IMF.
I read a post here that stated that sales by ECB members were
forbidden this month because of the launch of the EURO.
So the Fed can't sell gold ( without an act of Congress ) and
the ECB can't sell gold, and leasing is winding down, so they
have turned to the IMF. This does point to the demise of the
gold carry this year, rather than next. If the IMF turns down
gold sales, the gold bull may be in business.

Can the Fed. bully the IMF into selling its gold?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:04 - ID#329186)
jims (thats the topper) ID#252391
IMF Rumour mmmmmmmmm
that would leave the field open for the BIS, to stock up and also China India, and the islamic dinar......and still at bargain basement prices.

Give a man enough rope and he will hang himself ( man= IMF )
are things being timed so that the scramble for gold happens in the last quarter of 99 ( if we get that far ) when most folks & politicians will have the greatest difficulty in thinking let alone thinking straight.

guess the dissinformation is rising

go gold
think if it takes us by surprise and you have none!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:07 - ID#26793)
London morning dollar news and comment

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:18 - ID#26793)
BIS scolds the worlds bankers; speaks out on Russia, Brazil and the mess in general.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:21 - ID#37463)
All you guys are soundings real pessimistic about our friend, Goldilocks. It seems to be, not being an expert in analysis granted, that all this pessimism is usually the precursor for a big move up. When everything seems bleakest that is the time to watch for a move up. My feeling is that the prolonged and impressive commodity drop will at some point end. My feeling is that the end to this slump is near. At some point with comodities not at a price to support life for the producers of it the government is going to step in and print money or give big rebates or incentives to keep these peopel in business. After all what are we goign to do if all the farmers quit growing wheat, rye, rice, barley and the like. If that happens we're all going to be kissing our rears goodbye. If there isn't there ought to be a great fear in governmental circles about the commodity fiasco. Its nice to have unleaded for 80 cents a gallon but it is not healthy for the economy. The time is ripe for commodity prices to head up and the paper market to realize that what they are hawking is snake oil; low priced snake oil.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:21 - ID#252391)
S^P takes a dump
US stocks looked like a higher opening much earlier when the S and P globex was up 500 points as Europe opened. Those markets lost some of their earlier glitter and down came the S&P to a minus 70. Bonds doing nicely, however, having reversed smaller earlier losses and now posting little gains. Dollar seems pretty firm to me - gold - despite possible resumption of IMF gold sales or ceasation of gold leasing, is dead in the water asleep flat ass boring.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:34 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:35 - ID#252391)
The problem is, in my opinion, the FED does not have the mind set to raise commodity prices - has it ever done so, purposely, in the history of the US of A. It only knows how to fight inflation. It may know how to start inflation but not without knocking the bond market for a loop and that's real money.

Commodity prices can go down much longer and much further. The farms of American will just consolidate under bigger ownership. Gold has been in this bear for 18-19 years - nothing is written that says the end has to be next year or next decade.

Currently there is too much capacity in the world producing too many goods for which there is a contracting market and demand - hence deflation. The Central Bankers of the world will have to devise a way of stimulating prices through money creation without burning the bond, money markets and the dollar - hence the continued talk of gold sales, leaseing, etc. - they will continue - the gold LID will be maintained.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:41 - ID#252391)
Be watching for:
"news such as details from the European Central Bank about its reserve management rules."

Watch for those rules to be more permissive of gold leasing and sales than has been expected and for tne market to sell off to $285 as a result.

Isn't December 23rd the date for the release of the "rules" that one way or another won't be fully released but will be bearish in the short term for gold.?????

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:44 - ID#20359)
Get Camdesuss and get him to the FED and the almighty dollar...any number
of events could crush their best laid plans and they know it...the West has lost the key advantage of manufacturing and is now nothing more than a purveyor of service industries...this has been in the making for the past 30-40 years...the USA is a hollow shell of its former post war self...

The USA is a false leader of industry and certainly a shabby member of the global financial community with the horrendous yoke of debt round its neck...

The shell game is up...the Europeans will not tolerate gold sales as this would weaken their new currency out of the gate...

The currency war begins in earnest...and the Asians have yet to play their cards...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:55 - ID#20359)
this is a priceless read...take the time...uh huh...yup...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 07:59 - ID#256365)
rhody jims speed IMF Euro gold backing and sales
rhody, you suggested that the IMF would allow gold backing under part iii "other arangements" however I don't think this is the case. Other arangements seems to refer to "dirty floats". I will look further.

If you go to and read the introduction where it talks about how a nation becomes a member of the IMF it states that they must not base the value of their currency on gold.

Speed, I read your post regarding the rumor of IMF selling gold. I will look, but I think they have no authority to do this, as any gold or other reserves they hold as "subscriptions" of member nations. They would not need to sell gold to raise money for bailouts, they simply arrange member loans to vulnerable members, and if really needed, they could I think simply have another allocation of SDR's or special drawing rights, this would be their normal method of increasing liquidity, I think. I think for the IMF to sell gold would perhaps require a change in their charter or bylaws which requires a vote of something like 70% of the members. Speed, I think the rumor of the IMF selling gold is propaganda. I think it is a lie to drive the price down so that central banks can buy easily or it is a lie so that perhaps the Bundesbank can maybe unwind possible short positions.

But be careful, I must say that a week ago I hardly knew what the IMF was, and I am still at an early stage of learning.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:05 - ID#20359)
WAKEUP CALL...hello...America...anybody home...nah...but the lights are on...geez Louise...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:06 - ID#256365)
bondsman (Brazil) 30% interest
I have a cousine who lives in Brazil. He went down with the Peace Corp and got married and started a business there. He speaks with a Portugease accent now. But thats not important. I thought that for Brazil 30% interest was very low, I have heard that they keep the prices in the grocery stores on chalkboards and have someone full time to go around increasing them. My impression was that they have lived with inflation above 100% for decades.

I got to get his email address, he would know. If Brazil ever gets it's act together, they could easily dominate the world. But as it is ...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:07 - ID#411440)
RUMORS OF IMF GOLD SALES: Last time I looked, the IMF
had about 15.8 million oz or approx. $4.6 billion in gold.
If they dumped all of this gold on the spot market, it would
not make up the 800 tons or so of supply demand deficit in
the world gold market.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. They can use the IMF gold to
extend the artificial over supply once leasing ends. I shall
leave someone else to do the calculations as I must run to work.

Seems to me, the world gold market will run through that IMF
hoard in about a month and a half, if it's fed in at a rate
to just balance supply and demand. Is this right?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:08 - ID#348257)
gold, gold, golden, gold, and more gold
OK, here's the drill. And I'll make it simple 'cause not all of us here can afford to sit around and post at Kitco all day ( or whatever else you look at on the net ) .

A simple man's simple price chart observation...

In '81/82 gold came down hard from a peak of 850 to a bottom of just under 300. A crash of over 500 dollars! The gold price discounted the crunch caused by fed tightening to strangle inflation. A stiff recession unfurled in 81/82. Gold was on the way up by mid '82.

In '83 gold peaked at 500, then went down 215 dollars to 285 where it based. The fear of inflation was still alive, but it was clear that inflation was being "fought" by the Fed.

Gold recovered from its low in '85 to a peak of 500 once more in '87, after a big bull run in stocks. Gold did not make most of its gains until interest rates were clearly rising, and the dollar was on the path of devaluation once more ( as in the '70's ) - this time primarily in relation to the Yen. The Fed tightened in '89, '90 to head off inflation once more, and gold sank, discounting the crunch and the recession to come in '91 and '92. During that recession, gold based at 320 or so, then rallied to 416 in '93, and again in '96.

From its high in '96, gold came back to its 16 year base of roughly 285 ( give or take 10 bucks )
in '98. This time amidst talk of deflation, depression, central bank disfavor, and modern investor disdain. Gold is dead, Worthless, meant to be sold, is the talk. Gold? Gold who?

Yet gold is basing once again at 285. Basing while the world worries about staving off collapse, depression, and all kinds of Puetzian scenarios. Interest rates are falling. Stocks are rising. Bonds are high. Your daddy's rich, and your mama's good lookin'. So hush little baby, do-o-n't you cry.

My point? If the market is a discounting mechanism, then stocks sure ain't discountin' no depression. And if gold is a discounter of future trends, then the "de-pression done come and gone. Hope you didn't blink.

Expecting a big correction in stox? Well, what do you think we just had. The general list down 30-50% from its highs, the big caps less because this is an international interest rate driven market.

Gold is basing. It has ONLY come down a MERE 131 bucks from its last high. And amid talk of central bank disfavor, investor disdain, and approaching deflation. Yet here it sits, At 285.
The "news" gets worse. Does gold go down? Has it already discounted whatever it is investors fear?

The disinflation drive is spent. Over. Kaput. Inflation she is dead. Long live inflation.
Now get ready for "The Bride of Frankenstein." She's gonna be a real b*tch!
The next major cycle will be inflationary. Slowly, at first, 'cause there's slack to absorb it. And lots of institutions to mend. But it will end, years from now, in the same parabolic rise for gold once it roars out of political control.

We are approaching the turn.
The market is always right. Get with the program.

Get Real...Get Gold

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:11 - ID#252391)
and the Asians have yet to play their cards...
The Asians ability to coordinate a money policy is vastly over rated. The suspicions and hatreds among those people run deep.... if they play their cards it will be for their own purposes but not as a collective group. The Japanese have shown themeselves incapable of doing anything that has a positive end economic result. The Chinese have many constraints.... foremost of which is an closed economic order which is debilitating them.....the Koreans and a jumble of special private interests and too small to count... the southeast asians don't have the money....there are no cards to play.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:12 - ID#256365)
has the IMF sold gold before?
I just said I didn't think they could, but if they have sold gold in the past, then maybe I don't have a clue.
in response to your

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:15 - ID#20359)
Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a puff to know where to get gold...
where does one get this "real" stuff...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:17 - ID#255284)
Earleye in the morning...
My sketchy recollection of the IMF rules that I spent some long time examining a year or more ago suggests that the IMF cannot sell gold without elaborate procedures. I recall that the IMF appeared to be a "well" for gold. To join the IMF, 'lending' nations had to deposit gold in the IMF coffers. They passed resolutions forbidding the sale of gold unless under strict conditions.
No doubt SDRer has the references still. Mine all evaporated in the great hard drive melt down. Interesting that many of us seem to have experienced hard drive failure recently.
If my memory is serving me right, this "sale of gold by the IMF" story is ALL SPIN. IT HAS NO SUBSTANCE. ( sorry to shout ) The IMF can't sell its gold easily. Uh uh. THE IMF HOARDS GOLD LIKE SILAS MARNER.

I have read and re-read your magnum opus. I believe you have put your finger on the key to understanding this house of cards we call our currencies. Without Jude Wannniski's Gold Polaris, the CB's have had to keep their hands on the levers of a large number of currency influencers. We are seeing the ship of currencies being guided into the dock by what may be a drunken sailor, the IMF. I wonder if she can be stopped before she crashes into the jetty?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:18 - ID#288466)
deja vu
With all the talk of IMF gold sales, gold is going nowhere, etc......have we all heard this before?

Then....remember what happened afterwards.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:18 - ID#93241)
I agree with your analysis of the mindset of the Fed, but I question how much farther commodities can and will drop. The current glut of commodities is due in part, certainly, to technology and the ability to do things we couldn't do 20 years ago. To extract oil from once "dead" oilfields and to move foodstuffs overnight from South America to North America are "marvels" of our age. But the whole distribution system, with its just-in-time-deliveries, is vulnerable to disruption. How will imported foodstuffs move into America when the FAA has to cut air traffic next year. And what will be the effect on prices? How long will commodity producers continue in business while they lose money? IMHO, if commodity prices continue this free fall, it won't be for ten years, or five years. Maybe, at its worst, commodities will continue to fall until the end of 1999.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:33 - ID#256365)
tolerant1 where does one get this "real" stuff...
theres an internet company try:
they got all kinds of stuff
sorry I had to

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:33 - ID#224230)
@aurator - seeing you're back - Gold Constant
You mentioned earlier that you had posted a piece in the Jastram Gold Constant. Could you let me know the date and time of your post so I can study it. Thanks.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:34 - ID#263119)
Mike Sheller
If the market is always right in discounting future developments, then how come there are major reversals, booms-busts, etc. ( 1929 and aftermath, or, closer to home, the inflation scare of 1994, long bond at 8.2%, it seems so long ago! )

The market has no brain at all. It discounts nothing. But it has much influence on the real economy and thereby the power occasionally to shape subsequent events so as to fit previous expectations. I think of it as a historical process, random step by random step it tumbles along, only very superficial rationality. Feeedback between expectations and reality each influencing the other. This is excellently described in Soros latest book ( "crisis of capitalism" ) and also, with hilarious examples, in "Alchemy of Finance".

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:35 - ID#288466)
World Gold Council Ads

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:37 - ID#288466)
IMF and Gold (download)

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:38 - ID#255284)
To hopefully split infinitives, that noone has hopefully split before
A repost of an earlier post, posted in this morning's post.

I lack the ability ( being quite a dullard at things cartographical and scatological
) to draw charts of the relative purchasing power of the basket of commodities
cf gold, BUT is Roy Jastram correct ( you still in the stratosphere, Mr Skylark? )
Is gold not deflating as much as the rest of the commodities? Can anyone graph
us a graph?

I sure would like to look at that yellow snow.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:40 - ID#35571)
Anglo gold
Maybe we can start a merger mania.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:44 - ID#217211)
Bottom is close
The developing inverted Head and Shoulders on the weekly chart, but more importantly the Fibonacci pivot period and Elliott count ( see link ) has us at a very critical moment if we are to breach the unbroken upper trendline on the XAU from June 1996. Bottom very close I think.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:51 - ID#255284)
Actually I'm not so much back as insomniac. In the good old days, when I still had a memory, I could flick up a post of yore. Ever since the hard disk melt down thingy ( which has a certain convenience sometimes, like a great fire in the records dept of your local Council offices ) I have to rely on less, well, less reliable means.
The only record I have of posting this is from April 30 1997 @ 23:34.
Unless others would like to see it, I'll email it to you after my sleep. It's gonna take a little digging up.

Have you kept these too?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:52 - ID#288466)
Roy Jastram

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 08:57 - ID#348257)
you prove my point. Those "major reversals" are the discounting at work. The US stockmarket peaked and then began its decline two years before the Depression set in fully in 1931. Gold began its bull market for real in '72 discounting what would be near-runaway inflation down the road. Markets must needs reverse and gyrate - THAT is precisely how they discount the future. We may propose, but the future will dispose. If we are extraordinary people, we can get our clues to future valuations of different assets by thinking, certain kinds of analysis, and use of other prognosticative processes. Perhaps we can thus anticipate the market. If we are ordinary people, our clues come from the markets themselves. That, however, sometimes puts us a little behind the curve, but it is safer for many to "go with the trend." Until it reverses.

The Hatt
(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:07 - ID#381261)
Rubin/Greenspan/IMF gold sales....
So the rumour is true Rubin sees the writing on the wall and so does Greenspan, they are cooked. Note that the fed refused to comment not like in the past where they printed denials. As far as the IMF is concerned it is simply another rumour as Greenspan and Rubin are running out of steam on the gold carry trade. Am convinced that the investigation into Wall Street Firms rigging the gold market is Clintons way of distancing himself from the hurricane. Greenspan has informed Clinton that when the facts hit the table gold will explode and the true state of health within the U.S. Banking system will be exposed. It is interesting to note that gold is up this morning in new York and stable in Europe over night. Oh we are getting so close!!!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:09 - ID#288466)
ANOTHER XAU Elliott Wave Forecast
By Yvan Auger

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:14 - ID#288466)
Gold Daily Projection

User: hixson Password: thmetal


(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:14 - ID#252391)
Mr. Hatt - I think you have it....
"Am convinced that the investigation into Wall Street Firms rigging the gold market is Clintons way of distancing himself from the hurricane...."

Very plausible.
Must remember I heard it here first...... on a morning when gold was dead ass asleep, the dollar was firm, deflation was spawning all over the globe, yet there was this little murmuring of a faint hope that the LID might be loosened and the $300 wall breached . . . . gosh they should make this a novel.....but they'll have to speed up the plot .......

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:16 - ID#343259)
I have copied your post below where you copy in the Art IV Sec 2 ( b ) of the IMF Agreement.

I know nothing about this agreement, but, in reading the English, find nothing that would prevent the country from having a currency "based on gold". It seems to me merely from reading this one section ) that what is being discussed is the base for the *exchange* arrangement ( to track it ) rather than for the currency per se. In that context, my read would say that you can use SDR's as a base ( denominator ) for the exchange, or some other currency ( but not gold ) , although a gold-backed-currency is not excluded, it seems to me ) .

Another, more obtuse read would infer that gold is not permitted as a base inasmuch the SDR is based on gold, and therefore is "good as", and therefore redundant. Although the last sentence is meant as a joke, my fear is that it just might be accurate.

[Begin Aldebaran post]

Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund


Section 2. General exchange arrangements

b ) Under an international monetary system of the kind prevailing on January 1, 1976, exchange arrangements may include ( i ) the maintenance by a member of a value for its currency in terms of the special drawing right or another denominator, other than gold, selected by the member, or ( ii ) cooperative arrangements by which members maintain the value of their currencies in relation to the value of the currency or currencies of other members, or ( iii ) other exchange arrangements of a member's choice.

see that OTHER THAN GOLD, aparently a nation can not join the IMF if it uses bases the value of it's currency on gold.

[End Aldebaran]

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:17 - ID#20359)
Aldebaran, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...without health and a never ending sense
of humor the rest of life is meaningless...thanks for the chuckle...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:17 - ID#217211)
Another Elliott count
Silverbaron. Hi. just visited your site, and have a question about the weekly count. You have wave 1 in early 1996 lasting about six weeks, and then wave 3 lasting more than a year. What method do you use to make sure you are not mixing "degrees" the most common error in Elliott counting. Thanks.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:20 - ID#35571)
Clickety clickity clickity clack
moving out onto the mainline

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:22 - ID#20359)
Clintler's BS does not fly everywhere and this will snowball around the globe...yup...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:24 - ID#317193)
Gollum...I'm finished with my position...
Thank you so much for waiting...even a $5-10 drop in gold will not be met with anything but a smile...doubt we will see this.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:24 - ID#26793)
AngloGold to buy Minorco

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:26 - ID#288466)
Sorry....I'm not the author of that web site ( it's Yvan Auger ) . Here's his address, if you wish to contact him directly with your questions:

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:28 - ID#20359)
ah,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha...O Canada...this is priceless...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:29 - ID#35571)
In that case, hit the whistle and throttle up!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:30 - ID#317193) dead just moved a little...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:31 - ID#317211)
@Gollum: I've got my gold now. Keep pulling that lever UP UP UP. Ya, that's the one!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:31 - ID#35571)
Last car clearing the switchyards
Now for dead man's curve

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:33 - ID#26793)
Fed in a panic? Added reserves to the system every day since Nov. 3rd election

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:36 - ID#210163)
What is this about gold manipulation and the fed

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:36 - ID#35571)
NEM opens at 19
Gap up 1 1/4

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:36 - ID#20359)
ya gotta love it...

The Hatt
(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:38 - ID#381261)
IMF Sales
We have a non believer in the gold pits!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:41 - ID#20359)
The American West, gold and of course...the environment...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:42 - ID#242264)
What's going on?
The dollar strengthens and gold goes up.
What am I missing?
What's behind this sudden boost in gold?
Can anybody enlighten me - please?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:47 - ID#224230)
@gollum - By George I think he's got it.
Whichever levers you've just pushed, pulled, yanked or booted... make a note or the correct order and for heavens sake DO IT AGAIN !

On the AEX realtime goldprice site it's gone almost vertical-ballistic...!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:50 - ID#256365)
Watch the throttle Gollum
if you run off the tracks at this speed you wreck the whole town

(Mon Dec 07 1998 09:59 - ID#275170)
Sure was a lot of negative comments on gold lately!!!
I love it!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:01 - ID#35571)
Got to ease up on the throttle til we get the whole thing around dead man's curve, then it's high ball time!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:08 - ID#339274)
Bought 18 9/16

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:10 - ID#317193)
Markets...something is
Somekind of news out there.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:11 - ID#252391)
BOT Nem 19 5/8
What's the last o n gold??

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:13 - ID#203137)
Heard Iraqi's refusing to allow inspections. Can anyone confirm this?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:13 - ID#252391)
Make that 18 5/8

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:14 - ID#252391)
XAU taking the hit....e
Currently 86.65 on the low.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:15 - ID#203137)
Broker tells me due to strong fund buying

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:16 - ID#252391)
Not an Iraqi rally/....
we'll be down on the day before we are through - we need a bullion bank to go under or something ---- Iraq can't put the price of gold up...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:18 - ID#339274)
Turning point

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:21 - ID#339274)
Trades in NEM
Average trade size is 50% higher than Friday

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:34 - ID#252391)
Did we go down

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:37 - ID#252391)
xau 68.39 and falling
Seems a familiar pattern - jump up at the opening and sell off all day. Gold 10 minuntes ago was holding on to a $3 gain.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:39 - ID#348129)
@GOLD hits 299.80
F*** the shorts. You know who you are. Let it go boys, your game will be up shortly. EURO effect will sqaush you like bugs. Get out of the way and let it take it's natural course........

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:41 - ID#320202)
Gold, whatelse........
ohhhhhh what a beauuuuuuuutiful moooooooooornin,
Mikey boy Sheller, loved your 08:08 post
Gollum, you are my idea of a tactical ,fast attack vehicule, driver, all gears ahead, yepppeeee.......oh my, I think I am overdoing it, well , pardon me........

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:44 - ID#348129)
The shorts are selling every rally. Sooner or later the familiar game will be
up and they should be preparred to pay dearly. Betting it will be much sooner.....

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:47 - ID#20359)
some interesting reading here from J. Taylor...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:52 - ID#20359)
sometime in gold approached $700.00 an ounce jims assured everyone of
the yellow metals demise as a currency unit and said it would not be long before it became a relic in financial history...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:52 - ID#246299)
Quick note on the margin-

On Friday, 12/4, gold XEU was 250 and platinum SDR was at 250. Nice marker number?
Gold USD was at 292.80.

However, the AU-Audit was at 205.662, gold SDR was at 208.980. So, some adjustment necessary there.

Candidate for adjustment? ( 1 ) Gold getting cheaper to the Chinese ( although the yuan/dollar exchange has been FROZEN for over a yeardare one suggest GOLD is the "Pricer" not the "Priced"? And currency being positioned.
( 2 ) Yen being positioned [XEU:JPY 138.9; USD:JPY 118.6; SDR:JPY 164.6; GoldSDR:JPY 146.3]

One thinks these last adjustments will tell us quite a bit. One would promise to keep one's 'eyes peeled', except that sounds sooooo painful.
{:- ) ) bbml

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:53 - ID#339274)
Cyclical lows always give turbulence.Shorts were covered
this morning.and now we wait if gold has the stamina to stay
where it is at.Good support NEM 18 7/16 PDG 14 1/2,I don't think
it will get that low .We 'll see

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:57 - ID#246299)
unless they've 'lost' it...then gold four figures? five? six?
Suddenly, we would be dealing not with price...but with storage of value/wealth...different ballgame altogether. [I'm still concerned about last week's bumps, ruts and hidden snares.]

(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:57 - ID#249232)
Just a test

Mike Stewart
(Mon Dec 07 1998 10:59 - ID#270253)
Warrants on gold shares
Is anyone aware of actively traded warrants on any mid to large sized gold companies? I know of the Euro-Nevada warrants that trade OTC in Toronto. A few years ago I had some Cambior warrants that did well. Are there any around??

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:02 - ID#432130)
I am a long time gold bug...
...but I dont claim to know "Jack" about all the things that "influence" the POG. However, over the past couple of years, and particularly this year, I have come to some conclusions:

1 ) The POG is controlled by "They" ( I am *NOT* paranoid! )

2 ) "They" have, and will succeed in keeping the POG in the 295-300 range.

3 ) This has, and will continue to drive down Mining Stock and PM Fund values. As we continue to "hold our positions", the mining companies are in the process of going out of business. I feel alot of mining investments will be utterly lost.

4 ) "They" have been manipulating the entire global economy ( successfully ) for a very long time. But "They" have run out of time. Greed and corruption has done its dirty work on this Fiat system just as it has in every other Fiat system which have failed throughout history. Time is very short for this monetary system.

5 ) The failure of the world economic system is going to take time; ( I prepared myself for failure this Fall season *knowing* the market would make a comeback until at least next Spring ) . This slow "collapse" of this Fiat system will have severe deflationary effects on *everything* ( INCLUDING THE PRICE OF GOLD ) .

My point being this: Yes, there will be a gold "Bull Run" *YEARS FROM NOW!!!* In the mean time Mining Shares and PM Mutaul Funds will be shrinking smaller and smaller due to POG manipulation and Deflation. And yes also, there will be some mining companies that will do well *only* due to the demise of their competitors; then their values will dry up through deflation. *LOTS* of deflation has to happen before the *Big Inflations* hit. It is not until then that the POG will go "Bull"; long after the loss of influence by "They".

My bottom line is that any investment in gold *OTHER THAN ACTUAL PHYSICAL OWNERSHIP OF THE METAL*, is a guaranteed loss unless your going "Long Term", and your definition of "Long Term" is 10 years plus+.

All of the above is either the conclusions of accurate observation, or the conclusions of a "Jabonie Gold Bug". Thanks for reading it : )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:06 - ID#252391)
My with a $3 rally we do get cocky....
The Transportation index is up more on a percentage basis than the XAU which is about 68.55, currently. Want to make money - cool off and buy Alaska Airlines..... Oil is under $11.

ALK just crossed up 2 at 40 1/4, XAU 68.49

Will the golds finish with one of those naste solid down candlesticks???

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:09 - ID#339274)
Short covering rumors
Banks covering physical for hedge funds,hmm it will be an interesting
year end

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:13 - ID#200235)
If everyone on this forum would take your advice and buy the physical, then we would have a gold bull. This would give us long suffering gold stock holders a chance to break even ( hopefully ) .

as a long time gold stock holder, I agree with your conclusion that the near term future of gold is bleak indeed and the only way to invest in gold should be in the physical and in the collectible coins.

My next purchases of gold will be in the physical.

thanks for your analysis

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:19 - ID#33184)
I know it early, but we may be on our way to an outside day reversal in Jan Crude...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:25 - ID#339274)
nem 18 3/4

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:26 - ID#432130)
Thank you for your reply : )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:28 - ID#344326)
Walker Market Letter commentary...
In our last issue on 11/16 we said:

We could still see more consolidation ( i.e. pullback ) , but
the way things are shaping up right now it really looks
like this market is headed higher, and soon. Which leaves
us very comfortable with the position of our model.

The market did head higher, with the SP500 rocketing up 5% in the
next two weeks and setting new all time highs on 11/24 and 11/27.
However, the current outlook is not as clear as it was when we
published that 11/16 update.

This past week was a volatile one for the stock market, with the
SP500 and DJIA both pulling back 4% before rallying sharply on
Friday. Now we are wondering whether the drop last week just a
normal 4% pullback in a strong bull market, or whether it is going
to develop into something larger.

There are several things about the current market that we find
unsettling. First off, the market internals do not look very
healthy. Long time readers know that we closely watch the market
internals ( up and down volume, advancing and declining issues, new
highs and lows ) . In the last few weeks as the SP500 and DJIA

advanced to new highs, our internals indicators ( such as the
advance-decline line ) have actually been dropping. This shows that
more stocks have been going down than up, which means that the
strength in the DJIA and SP500 have been masking weakness in the
broad market. Another sign of just how "thin" the current rally has
been is the performance of the Russell 2000, which has been going
sideways since 11/6 and is still 18.8% from its all time high.

Another trouble spot for the market is the extremely bullish
sentiment among investors and market advisors. Sentiment is a
contrary indicator. Simply put, when everyone is already bullish,
there is no one left to buy. Last Sunday our Investor
Sentiment Report showed bullish sentiment at 62%, a very high level
( we also pointed out that bullish readings that high had always
been followed by an immediate pullback - like we had last week.
Subscriptions to the sentiment report are free. Subscribe at ) .

Yet another area for concern is the current charts. Since the
bottom on 10/8, the SP500, DJIA, and NASDAQ have rallied
impressively up to their old highs. The SP500 and DJIA even set
marginal new highs. But then the market fell back. This sets up a
potential "double top" chart formation, which can have very bearish
implications if we don't rally up to further highs soon.

However, not everything is doom and gloom for the market. First
off, the market has built a lot of momentum since the 10/8 lows.
This type of momentum takes a while to turn around. In addition,
the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 performed relatively well last week,
essentially going sideways even as the DJIA and SP500 were selling
off. And even with the very bullish investor sentiment, there are
many worried investors out there. Those worriers might provide the
"wall of worry" that the stock market likes to climb.

The bottom line is that there are many cross currents in the market
right now. We could go on and on pointing out bullish and bearish
factors, they are just about evenly lined up. It is these times
when it is nice to have our allocation model to fall back on. Right
now the model's signal strength is at 18 out of 20, and all four of
our strategies are 100% invested in the stock market. While we can
find plenty of reasons to be uncomfortable with the current market,
we remain confident that our model strategies will react quickly if
the market starts to falter.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:36 - ID#339274)
wants to cover the gap 67.5

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:38 - ID#339274)
18 7/16 has my number

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:47 - ID#339274)
Bought back 18 7/16

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:53 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 176.338 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 292.350 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 178.904 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 295.550 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 2.8735 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 7 Dec 1998 ) : 4.7600 US Dollars

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:56 - ID#404312)
gold rush

Heard some mockery today on WMAQ newsradio, Chicago about y2k and televangelists stirring up panic and people buying up freeze dried foods aaaaaaand turning their cash into gold.

Was at a local antique auction Saturday in the boonies where beanie babies were going for 20$ and BU ( optimistic grading ) silver dollars for 20$. These nitwits always bid up s. dollars to twice or three times their coin show/coin store value. Only bargain I ever got was where there were so many coins that the dimwits ran out of money. The coins came down from 10-15 dollar range to the 5.50-6.00. range. I know, I should take my poorest coins, consign them for auction around here and double my money, but it would be hard for me to take advantage of them like that. Even though some of them think they are prettty clever for paying only 10$ for a coin worth 6$.

The point of this all is that the madness of the crowd may be beginning to turn its attention to gold. A few more of the mob leaders may start to run towards it and the whole lot will soon start thinking that gold is cheap at 500$. If a stupid toy costing 10 cents to make will bring 20$, why not a rare metal 1000$ an ounce. Apparently value is in the eye of the beholder who may value it not because it actualy does anything but because the other guys in the crowd want it too. And the other guys want it because he wants it because some financial or religious or political guru says other guys want it because stocks are going out of fashion because other guys are now putting the smart money into gold blahblahblahblah...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 11:59 - ID#26793)
Gold surge tied to U.S. fund short covering

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:04 - ID#280246)
Double Top
How long without a new high do we have to wait before realizing that we have a double top?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:14 - ID#390415)
Note to investors
Increasing gold bullion prices = higher prices paid to gold producers = higher earnings for gold mining companies.

What part of this don't you understand?

So get busy and bid up those gold stocks, willya?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:28 - ID#45173)
Venezuelan investors unenthusiastic about their new champ of the poor leader
Venezuela IBC ^IBC Dec 4 3919.28 -169.39 -4.14%

Im surprised the Brazilian elite isn't taking it harder. The events in Venezuela might embolden the left in Brazil, making them even more subborn on recessionary ( read: bad for everyone but especially the poor ) reform legislation.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:35 - ID#404312)

except for all those gold producers hedging down here at the bottom

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:35 - ID#339274)
Get set for a nice rally in gold stocks in the next half hour.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:39 - ID#147201)
Snowbird/Envy re CAD/casting
Can either send me the reference on this work? Many thanx, Charlie

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:39 - ID#20359)
sometime in gold dove upwards from $700 to $850...jims troops were last
seen chasing him over the horizon...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:40 - ID#333127)
the lunch crowd didn't sell the xau off

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:43 - ID#153102)
When the pyramid of usury was leveraged at 30 to 1, the man was proved wrong who said it canna' go to 60 to 1. When it was 60 to 1, he was proved wrong again. Now that it is at 75 to 1, can it go to 150 to 1 ?
The only thing certain is that it must try. Desperation neither hears, thinks, sees, nor heeds probabilities.

I think the prohibition of usury is probably compassed by the commandment on coveting.

The fallacy of believing everything that goes down must go back up is shown by the examples of the Titanic, Grants, and The Roman Empire, a sampling from the short list.

"My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge: because thou has rejected knowledge, I will also reject thee, that thou shalt be no priest to me: seeing thou has forgotten the law of thy God, I will also forget thy children." ( Hosea 4: 6 )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:43 - ID#249232)
Deflation is accelerating--I'm back and posting again
When I was in Japan last week I bought a brand new computer. Talking about deflation in computer prices, I bought a Toshiba 8000+, dual Pentium, 600MH lap top with 256MB of memory, 10GB hard drive, DVD, floppy drive, 56 KB internal modem with 14" color monitor and a jet ink printer for $2100. It came with Win 98, MS suite of products and 50 games and they were begging me to buy it. Japan is entering a real depression. Interest rates are close to zero and unemployment is mounting. Prices are falling on a daily prices and the government is paralyzed and unable to do anything.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:47 - ID#81124)
Nightwriter (note to physical holders)
Sell-offs of gold mining companies = less money for exploration and expansion = more companies go broke = less gold produced = more money for the holders of physical.

What part of this don't you understand?

So get busy and SELL OFF all of your gold stocks, willya?
:- )

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:47 - ID#348257)
"They" will be very surprised with gold nudging 370 in the Spring, won't they then?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:48 - ID#348257)
It is man's nature to push everything to itrs furthest limits. Especially iniquity.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:50 - ID#153102)
@JP @You paid too much for the new laptop.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:53 - ID#45173)
DOW and S&P 500 idling...
...waiting for...

1 ) More layoff announcements
2 ) More merger announcements
3 ) Other Brazil shoe
4 ) Other hedge fund shoe ( banks )
5 ) Other Iraq shoe


Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:55 - ID#348257)
Dost thou keep each and every commandment of God's Law as it is written, Brother Mozel? For if you have broken only one, you are guilty of having broken the entire Law.

The letter killeth...the Spirit giveth life.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:57 - ID#249232)
mozel-You are correct.
I did pay too much for my new laptop.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 12:58 - ID#45173)
My experience is that goods made in Japan and Taiwan in particular are less expensive to buy in the U.S. than where they're produced, usually by at least 10%. Is this no longer the case?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:00 - ID#20359)
How many good people can Clintler destroy before America realizes he IS the problem...sheesh...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:04 - ID#20359)
ahem...ahem...this laptop with the capabilities it has...ahem...I defy anybody on Kitco
to show me anywhere in the USA where this price could be touched...I'm waiting...yup...uh huh...tap...tap...tap...tap...tap...tap...tap...tap...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:05 - ID#249232)
EJ--You are correct.They are cheaper in the US.
I bought it in Japan because I could not get it in the US. In the US I would have been able to buy the Toshiba 8000 which is Pentium 300MH but not the Toshiba 8000+ which is dual Pentium 600 MH. I needed main frame power on my desk and the Toshiba 8000+ is as close as I can find.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:08 - ID#348257)
yin and yang
There are two sides to being enamored of the markets. One side is the innate desire to maximize, to profit, to master and control. This leads us to buy and sell, thinking "if I am so fabulously smart, why aren't I fabulously rich? Of course the initial premise may be flawed...but be that as it may, we quickly learn the OTHER side to being enamored of the markets - the Love of Knowledge. To profit, we discover rudely, we must learn. To learn, we must listen. We must listen to others, to our own higher mind, and to the market itself. Through this process, we often discover profound Truths about human action and the Human Condition. We learn that True Prinsiples underlie all things, though they may at times appear to be ignored or forsaken. We learn, personally, to forsake them at our peril.

Fondly held ideals, philosophical conceits, and foundational truths all have their place and may in the end ( in a world without end? ) be proved correct. But intra-day, intra-month, intra-year, intra-decade, and intra-generation the fluctuations may batter us senseless if we pay only attention to our venerated mental structures ( wise as they may be ) and not what is going on around us.

In this wise, Brother LGB was right that gold was a lousy investment from 1980 on, while stocks were the place to be ( putting aside whether or not this enlightenment came to him then, or just recently ) . Does this impugn the noble veracity of gold as God's money for man? Perish Forbid!
However, as a "buy and hold" "investment" the king of metals would have best been avoided, only managed by an adroit and worldly trader. For those who choose to spend life in an ivory tower, it is hoped the vantage point will be fulfilling for things of the soul.
But man does not live by Faith alone. Sometimes a little Bread helps too.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:15 - ID#258273)
Unconfirmed Rumor
Heard from a hacker that Soros is about to devour his own young. That is, body slam the PM shorts. Makes sense to me. Seeking confirmation. Several cyber-libertarians are currently trying to hack relevant email sources. Be back this evening. Gotta go.

WARNING: As in any recon effort take no action without confirmation.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:19 - ID#35757)
World leaders for $1000, Alex
Felatio got him in trouble, but coonilingus pulled his fat out of the fire.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:20 - ID#227238)
Brother Sheller:
Sound advice. Wish I'd met you sooner in life.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:26 - ID#365216)
The reason you cannot convince people that Clinton is seeking the ruin
of the country he has sworn an oath to protect and serve for the sake
of his own power struggles is the same that you can't convince them
to prepare for Y2K or other emergencies: the masses have been dumbed
down so much ( my new term for them is "Sheeple" ) that they just take
in what they are fed by the establishment as long as their personal
lifestyle is good and in no apparent danger of disruption.

Let us pray for the deposing of the dictator Clinton via impeachment.
By God's grace, his tyranny will end soon through legal means.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:28 - ID#194311)
Gold carry unwinds a coming...
a little sampler this morn in the big rotten apple.

What's happened to Dabchick's lease rates?, slowly closing the gap, USdollar will get it's scrawny neck broken when the gold carry unwind whipsaws for REAL gold.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:36 - ID#153110)
The olde covenant was with a people chosen; the new with a people choosing. I hope it may never be said truly of me that I have "forgotten the law of thy God" for then whence cometh either knowledge unto repentance or forgiveness for my willy nilly trespasses ?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:44 - ID#20359)
General. Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:49 - ID#225236)
Had an interesting conversation with some "sheeple" a couple of days ago. ( Broke my own rules -- was not supposed to waste time like that ) .

According to them stocks CANNOT fall because evverybody has their retirement money there through 401Ks and it would RUIN them.

It would be sooo bad that it cannot happen. Try to reason with that one.

I sometimes think that Americans DESERVE a breakdown of society a la Bolshevik revolution in Russia. Stupidity has been rewarded for so long.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:52 - ID#411259)
..... Gold Below Spot .....

As I wrote of last week, my company is now offering gold and silver below spot price.
Gold will sell at $1 below spot, with zero commission charges.
Silver will sell at 1 cent below spot, same commission structure.
Buy back is at standard bid prices, about $4 below spot on gold, 8.5 cents on silver.

This is an offer to first time clients only, and is a one shot deal.

The metal may be traded or delivered. Deliveries will incur standard delivery costs.
This is a test program, and no guarantees were made that it would continue.

This is the first time I have ever seen gold below spot.

If anyone would like details, feel free to e-mail me at


(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:55 - ID#20359)
Clintler, I simply don't know how you could pile that much dirt in one bag...amazing...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 13:55 - ID#339274)
Rally in major oilstocks,HAL 31,nice.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:00 - ID#391172)
Is your new computer y2k compliant?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:04 - ID#404312)

A fella I work with said that stocks cannot crash because they passed a law to keep that from happening. I don't know if my sheeple tops yours but he's close.

Probably belongs to the sheeple party whose main platform is that if the goverment was really for the little guy they could pass a law to make everybody rich... maybe by raising the minimum wage to 100$/hour.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:05 - ID#81124)
Derivitive humor (yes, really)
Maybe what we need is a site of collected Gold humor?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:06 - ID#153110)
Usually, investment advice, however self-confident of being well-informed, does not omit to say, "Past results are no guarantee of future performance.". It's always a good cartoon that features the bearded prophet on Wall Street with the sign saying "The end is nigh".

The fundamentals are now widely regarded as funny mentals. Indeed, according to the experience of practically all those now living, why should they not be ? I certainly have no trading system to offer nor any measurement system of the distance to nigh. Nigher, yes. But, going to hell in a handbasket is a trip that always takes longer than scheduled.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:06 - ID#249232)
Neer-do-well--Yes, It's y2k compliant.
I received a certificate from Toshiba stating that my Toshiba 8000+ is y2k compliant.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:11 - ID#371229)
@tolerant1, I agree wholeheartedly /w J. Farrah's remarks; however whar do you want to bet
that if impeachment threatens to yank this yahoo Clitler out of office, we will see 1 ) A dramatic turndown in the Dow, 2 ) Rising foreign terroist threats, 3 ) crisies in Brazilian, Latin American economies, and in short all manner of fax paus fiat ad infinitum, to create the necessity of a congress
and KING to SAVE U.S.?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:12 - ID#365216)
Y2K Compliant ammo....
Saw an ad in SHotgun News from a company stating that their ammo
was Y2K Compliant....

Got God, gold, guns, grub, grassroots, and generators?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:15 - ID#257148)
The Golden Constant
I've misplaced your email address. Please email me if you'd like me to forward that post about Roy Jastram.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:16 - ID#45173)
What have you heard on the derivatives front?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:16 - ID#339274)
Gold rally on russian credit crunch
Russian Ruble going for a crash,Banks will be in trouble again.
Replay of last summer

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:17 - ID#45173)
How low can it go?
FOCUS-Oil drops below $10, European stocks mixed

LONDON, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Brent crude oil prices fell below $10 a barrel for the first time since 1986 on Monday amid pessimism over the prospects for an end to one of the steepest price crashes on record.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:19 - ID#277224)
Mirandr Explorations
A geologist friend, over the weekend,was suggesting
that MIQ ( Montreal ) was about to make an announcement.
( positive or whatever ) Could anyone confirm or add to
the information?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:19 - ID#20359)
RAN, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I dunno...I just dunno...I think Clintler has finally
screwed the pooch as it is said...the BS around him is finally getting so deep he will need wings to get above it...ahhhhh, but time will tell eh...I hope is it a veeeeeeeeeeeery short story...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:21 - ID#225236)
I think yours is better. We definitevely need the list of the "top reasons" why the stocks cannot fall. We have to entries already. Anybody has more brilliant quotes?
( Each quote has to begin with THE STOCKS CANNOT FALL BECAUSE..."

The stocks cannot fall because...
1. They passed a law against them stocks falling.
2. We would loose all Social Security money the government has printed for us.

Speaking of Social Security money. I sued some dirtbag some time ago who totaled my car and had no insurance. Laughed at me saying -- go ahead sue me, I have no money anyway. After he lost in court I emptied his amazingly sound bank account. He protested in court saying that it was illegal for me to do that because it was GOVERNMENT MONEY... ( The government sent it to him! ) .

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:24 - ID#371229)
tolerant1, How about Clitler for a double ente'ndre? Instead of Clintler?

if the foe __its?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:27 - ID#339274)

NEW YORK, Dec. 7 ( UPI ) _ Selected gold, silver and platinum coin
prices based on a Gold base price of $295.00 silver base of $4.82 and
platinum base price of $349.00.

Monday Friday
U.S. Eagle 1 troy oz. 307.00 304.50
U.S. Eagle .50 troy oz. 160.00 156.00
U.S. Eagle .25 troy oz. 92.00 82.00
U.S. Eagle 1-10 troy oz. 35.00 35.00
Canada Maple Leaf 1 troy oz. 307.00 304.50
Canada Maple Leaf .50 troy oz. 160.00 156.90
Canada Maple Leaf .25 troy oz. 92.00 82.00
Canada Maple Leaf 1-10 troy oz. 35.00 35.00
Canada Maple Leaf 1-20 oz. 20.00 20.00
China Panda 1 troy oz. 312.00 310.00
China Panda .50 troy oz. 162.00 160.00
China Panda .25 troy oz. 84.00 84.00
China Panda 1-10 troy oz. 35.00 35.00
China Panda 1-20 troy oz. 21.00 21.00
Yorkie Dog 1 troy oz. 308.00 305.00
Yorkie Dog .50 troy oz. 158.00 156.00
Yorkie Dog 1-5 troy oz. 68.00 67.00

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:27 - ID#254321)
Russian Financial crisis?
Cyclist: Why would a Russian currency crash adversely affect the markets? The rest of the world trades very little with Russia anymore. But -- if the Russians are selling their precious, or are rattling their sabres -- that could cause some commotion. A little sabre rattling might be quite effective in pushing gold up.

I wonder what they could threaten. How about a warning about a few nuclear weapons going off by themselves come y2k if they don't get a little cash from us? North Korea is already trying the sabre rattling gambit.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:31 - ID#371229)
Petronius, The market cannot fall until it has the chaos of Y2K to blame it
on, and obscure all computer records of who owes what to who.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:32 - ID#339274)
A crisis in Russia will be a crisis for the banks,especially
the European ones.This will effect the gold-price more than
a little sabre rattling,IMO.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:32 - ID#254321)
Do the Russians have some foreign debt?
Cyclist: Is that it? Any idea how much and to whom?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:33 - ID#81124)
Derivitive humor (reposted)
Sorry EJ and others for the cryptic post. I forgot to post the LINK in my last message. I wasn't being vague and mysterious, just careless. Sorry for the confusion.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:34 - ID#371229)
The market cannot fall until POG is driven down to $200 so the resulting flight to
quality will only bring it back to $295.10.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:34 - ID#339274)
Sold 18 3/4,waiting for a new entry point.: )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:35 - ID#329186)
Petronius@hugo id#225236 THE STOCKS CANNOT FALL BECAUSE
1.The Klintler Family, Greenspun & co would loose their jobs ( how sad )
2.The Americans would have to wake up to whats been going on in "their "
3.The Greedy B******S running the show still need more and also hope to
stay at the top in The Guiness Book of BUBBLES.

hurry up No 1
go gold

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:36 - ID#246224)
You folks are the funniest people on earth.
Thanks for posting. LOL. HaHaHa! There is truly a delusion blanketing this global. And when the going gets tough for those of us who gag on such decrepitude .. then the Kitco crowd is a wonderful respite from the all to common grey sludge being pumped.

I recently read a poll the 99.87% of those polled have never heard of Tolerant1, but the remaining 0.13% were lying because they did not want to admit that they didn't know someone who they thought they should know.

To all the guns&ammo freaks. Just go me some fire power and am loading up on that there 'Y2K compliant' ammo.

Preparations going well on this quadril of the geodetic map.

When Rubin jumps you know the train will be slamming very shortly. Watch him real close. He could have health trouble soon.


You have 17 days left to prepare without starting to bump into the crowds and eventual gub'mint restrictions. Make Y2K a part of your Christmas play. Nothing like a tin of pig with a bow on it under the tree ( substitute tin of ( K ) parva, cured beef on appropriate jewish feast day for those for whom it applies ) .

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:37 - ID#254321)
Russian debt
Cyclist: Thanks. I would guess that gold might go down initially, not up, if there is alot of unpaid Russian debt. Could this be why Germany is now thinking of selling the IMF gold? I don't like the looks of this.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:41 - ID#246224)
Oh, JP
And what's the 'bad' news in Japan these days? ( Now that you've gotten the good news out of yer system ;- )

And on top of this their unremediated Y2K problem will simply eviscerate them as a nation. Not a very pretty picture of the future. Hope I'm wrong for their sakes.

You must see Infomagic's recent posting on residual failure rates as they will destroy systems which are 'fixed and tested', etc. A real eye opener. Can't really be argued with, IMHO.

Glad your back.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:44 - ID#350358)
Cyclist ---- Data points
I get my quotes from schwab, looks like they get them through Looking at the daily chart on NEM today, a couple of hours ago there was a spike down, that was clearly out of the trend line. I find a lot of spikes in the service that are obviously eroneous. But the spike I mentioned here looks plausible. In your opinion was this a real trade? Churning for stops? Any other thoughts?

Thanks, and I enjoy your comments and such.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:44 - ID#339274)
Russian has around 144 billion shortterm debt largely with
German and other European banks.IMF officers flew to Moscow

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:44 - ID#254321)
Robert Rubin really ready to jump ship
Mike Sheller: Any astrological observations relating to RR's future? I know he does not think much of WJC.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:44 - ID#343171)
Carmack MIQ
they will have an announcement concerning results of exploration
conducted on the Railroad property Nv by Kinross, timing next 3-4 weeks
but depends upon when Kinross releases to MIQ

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:49 - ID#249232)
We have only a few more weeks to suffer on our gold investments
Tax loss selling will end on Dec 31,98. Right now, some of the gold mining shares represent a bargain of a life time. Many of the juniors are selling for cash and those that are debt free with good properties and cash represent a major buying opportunity. All the senior gold stocks are a buy. Since Feb 1998 I have been advocating the idea of a deflationary run away phase and now you are beginning to see what is meant by a deflationary trend. Commodity prices are falling on a daily basis, cash crunch is developing in many industries and interest rates are declining.
Earnings are also declining or vanishing in many industries and unemployment in the US manfacturing sector is rising.The synthetic prosperity in the US is about to disappear and relpaced by reality.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:49 - ID#316256)
Finian's Rainbow, Lets hear it for the Finian McLonerfan Economic Theory.
Watched a great movie the weekend on AMC called, "Finian's Rainbow" ( 1968 )

Cast: Fred Astaire ( Finian McLonergan ) , Petula Clark ( Sharon McLonergan ) , Tommy Steele ( og ) , Don Franks ( Woody
Mahoney ) , Keenan Wynn ( Senator Rawkins ) , Al Freeman, Jr. ( Howard ) , Barbara Hancock ( Susan the Silent ) .

Synopsis: A mysterious Irishman, Finian, and his beautiful daughter Susan arrive one day in a small Southern town of
sharecroppers. The town has its own dreamer who thinks that he might be able to put the town on the map by crossing mint
with tobacco so that it'll come mentholated. Finian's journeyed to the town because he's captured a leprechaun's crock of gold
and plans to plant it in the ground so it'll grow faster ( or else why would the American have rushed to dig the gold out of
California only to plant it back in the ground at Fort Knox? ) . But Og the leprechaun arrives, bent on retrieving his gold.
Meanwhile, the bigoted Judge Hawkins is upset with the tobacco growers because they're not segregated, and plans on taking
their land away. And when Susan yells, "I wish to God you were black so you could know how it feels..." while standing right
over the pot of gold, all hell breaks loose as wishes come true.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 14:54 - ID#277224)
Thanks for the information Re. MIQ.I am hearing some
positive things but to this point nothing concrete.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:00 - ID#339274)
Only a few trades were made of 18 1/4 and the sizes were small.
The spike you refer on quotecom didn't occur it went as low as 18 7/16.
Be aware that stops have to be handled on manual now and on the throttle.
Watch the volume and the bid /ask positions.
If you don't have a realtime quote service,watch the XAU/HUI

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:08 - ID#257148)
We could do with some of those Welfare mothers who've done a 10 day computer course
You're all gonna love this one:

The Govt Services' Y2K preparations have taken a further setback. Consultants cannot buy liability insurance in case their solutions do not work. So the consultants are turning turtle and refusing to try remedial actions. Minister of Technology now on radio revealing "This is bigger than we thought."

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:13 - ID#219363)

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:13 - ID#316256)
White House refutes that Rubin is leaving

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:32 - ID#339274)
Bought back 18 11/16 looks like we going to see a run at the close

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:38 - ID#341226)
Precious Metals to Languish in '99, Thanks to Gov't Manipulation.
Not so long ago, I posited the notion of a "New Gold Paradigm." Unfortunately, I am now becoming convinced that the paradigm is shattered owing to the American government's destruction of the American free market. In fact, more and more, I am coming to realize that the trajectory for PM's next year is nothing less than dismal...ALL PM'S. Why?

I have come around to believing that OLDMAN has it on the nose when he states that, so long as Rubin, Greenspan, and Clinton are in power, there will NEVER be a notable PM rally of any significance or duration. I am convinced that Rubin spends more time in front of a computer screen "supervising" Wall Street's performance than he does taking care of Treasury affairs. The constant regular intervention by the Clintonite financial masters to ensure that PM's stagnate while non-PM stocks and bonds soar is nothing short of astounding. I say "astounding" because the manipulation is so blatant ( the LTCM rescue best illustrates this fact ) that one must wonder why the major gold companies and investors have never run to the courts in order to sue the government in a huge class action. It seems the big gold companies and major funds are the ultimate masochists, simply sitting on their hands while Rubin and friends slam them over and over again.

The constant stream of negative anti-PM propaganda is overwhelming. Today illustrated yet another classic case as rumors of German approval of IMF gold sales were released into the market in order to counter gold's attempt to break the 300 barrier. Although I have no idea why the same old "rumors" always unnerve the gold market, nevertheless, the status quo prevails. Gold longs and, at this point, all PM longs are easily unnerved at the slightest hint of proposed PM sales.

Of course, white metal exponents would argue that Plat and silver can divorce themselves from the stagnation of gold. According to these white metal chauvinists, plat, palladium, and silver all have much better demand to supply stats than gold. However, I do not believe that a significant Plat or silver rally can occur WITHOUT taking gold with it. Since the Establishment does NOT want a gold rally no matter what, then I think the white metals are consigned to the toilet along with gold. Sure, the white metals have outperformed gold the past year...but only for a short duration. When gold was beaten back, ultimately the white metals were beaten back right along with it.

SO, there you have it....bonds remain the targeted flight to safety...NOT gold nor plat nor palladium nor silver. The Clinton government and its assorted allies will never sit idly by and allow any major sustained rally in any precious metals...not now NOR in'99!

Maybe by some time after the next election, we can see some appreciation in the gold metal above the 300 mark. Yet until then, don't hold your breath. After all, the internet stock bubble must be maintained at any cost.




(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:48 - ID#339274)
If the Friday trading pattern is any guide,tuesday's opening
could be a move to 75 XAU

(Mon Dec 07 1998 15:54 - ID#45173)
A Y2K first
Cincinnati Fin'l sues over Y2K cover

NEW YORK, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Cincinnati Insurance Co. has filed a complaint in federal court in what may be the first action concerning an insurance company's Year 2000 obligations, according to a litigation newsletter.

Cincinnati Insurance, a unit of Cincinnati Financial Corp, filed the complaint on Friday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa against its insured and the plaintiff in an underlying Year 2000 case, according to Mealey Publications Reports.

The insured, Source Data Systems, is a defendant in a suit filed in August by Pineville Community Hospital of Pineville, Ky., Mealey Publications said.

The hospital maintains that Source Data Systems pledged that a $570,000 computer system installed in 1995 and 1996 would be Year 2000 compliant.

But, Pineville said promised repairs were never completed. Pineville said it now must install a new system estimated to cost $750,000 to $1.25 million, according to Mealey Publications.

Cincinnati Insurance wants a declaration that it has no duty to defend or indemnify Source Data Systems and can recover defense costs already incurred, Mealey Publications said.

Cincinnati Financial declined immediate comment. Additional details about the case were not immediately available.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:00 - ID#20359)
ah,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha...and this guy is in charge...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:04 - ID#20359)
and so...either this is true or it is not...willing to bet your life on it...Hmmmmmmm...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:08 - ID#20359)
Y2K Czar and one of his areas of "expertise."...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
Koskinen also served as a Special Assistant to the Deputy Executive Director of the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders, represented New York City in its Washington, D.C. office, and served as Administrative Assistant to Senator Abraham A. Ribicoff of Connecticut.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:08 - ID#365253)
What has the oil sector in such a freenzy today, considering oil approaching $10/bl? Besides HAL, who else do you like in the industry?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:14 - ID#189269)
Gold Manipulation

I respectively disagree with your assessment although I understand your conclusion. Today we have an environment ( for gold ) that has more positve developments than I can remember in recent times. First, Merril Lynch and UBS the mega-shorts led by Ted Arnold and Andy Smith are out of the gold derivatives game. This is an extremely important development. In fact Mr. Smith now works for a Japanese firm ( Mitsui ) I believe and he is now a gold bull. He recently commented that the proposal by EMU to mint a gold coin could take 1,000 - 21,000 tonnes off the market. Second, the recent article about gold manipilation indicates an inability to contain the forces at work, namely large annual gold deficit and hedge fund borrowing and selling CB surplus gold. The fact that this information is coming to light indicates a possible change in direction. The introduction of the Euro could cut off that supply and the LTCM fiasco could make it very difficult for hedge funds to continue this game. The recent movement in the lease rates as Rhody noted could soon make the gold carry trade uneconomic.

Finally the most important development IMHO, is the recent discussions major gold firms had in London and South Africa led by AngloGold, Barrick etc.. regarding the future of gold mining. They have finally understood that transparency, a better understanding of what the CB intentions were and sharing data wrt who the players are in the gold industry are crucial to their future.

These are just some thoughts trom the top of my head, I think that the next six months will be more exciting for a gold bug than at any time in recent memory.

The internet bubble will burst like all bubbles because there is tremendous overcapacity in many areas. The unwillingness of major analysts to admit this results in a record S&P P/e ratio ~30. Profits will fall not rise next quarter, so the p/e must rise but many insiders and specialists will continue to sell as they are doing now. That leaves the average joe's who have borrowed or obtained a second mortgage about to be devastated.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:15 - ID#25171)
As European banks won't be able to sell or lease anymore GOLD from 01/01/99 on for 1 to 2 years and it would take an act of congress to sell US gold , who will sell in front of the possible tidal wave likely to happen in 99 4th Q?
Mining companies are overhedged , Asian central banks are quietly hoarding , investor's demand is skyrockecting and supply/ demand in GOLD is running 800 t short .
Even without GERMANY , FRANCE ITALY AND SWITZERLAND still have a veto power all together at IMF ( 15 % )
Don't bet on a languishing price next year.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:21 - ID#219363)
New low today, how low can she go ? 194.62

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:26 - ID#252391)
Volumn on gold shares....
lighter than average. Big up move was not accompanied by greater than average volumn..after intial spurt gold finished mid range for the day....oil up as much as it was down at the opening on blow out of stops....CRB makes new low....dollar stronger... BUT Bonds were weaker...

Mixed tale of the tape.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:28 - ID#343171)
Demand for dried food soars as concern

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:29 - ID#339274)
Less volatile is SLB ( Schlumberger ) .Matter of fact gave a buysignal

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:30 - ID#391172)
Chick-a-dee's, little sparrow like ground birds with a wide distribution REMEMBER where the put each little seed they stow in each little place. Thier hippo-campus enlarges during the stowing season.

Nature is far more complex and exact than we realize.

Thank-god the Kennedy's were in office for the Cuban Missle thing, we wouldn't be concerned over the PM's if it were anyone since. The power of decision.

The power brokers are distancing from Clinton, a couple of weeks and he'll be making another speech.

y2k talk is accelerating around here ( Alaska ) . Week or so ago I lost all my bookmarks, my Kitco thingy, but nothing else. Does seem strange.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:37 - ID#339274)
In addition Cycles have bottomed second week of December and
I watch the average trade size today big funds are going in to
SLB and HAL second.Average trade size is 2500 shares for SLB.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:39 - ID#350179)
Not much of a turn-out

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:49 - ID#365253)
Thanks for your suggestions. SLB does appear to be a good value, nothing like getting in on the bottom.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:52 - ID#290456)
Tour of an underground FEMA facility
FWIW - This was copied from one of the Usenet
groups. I am NOT the author.

Dear Citizens:
Here is a post from a Patriot who was allowed to
tour a FEMA control- command center.
Date: Sat, 11 Jul 1998 12:22:29 -0700 ( PDT )
From: A Friend
Subject: FEMA
To: eagleflt@

I was recently invited to tour a command center
owned and maintained by FEMA. What I saw both
amazed and shocked me at the same time. The center
was located under ground. From the outside you
would never guess it was there.

After descending by elevator about one hundred
feet we stepped out into a long hall that was
secured by two heavily armed guards. They checked
my guides credentials and gave me a good top to
bottom search. My guide had to sign me in.

The hall had doors on both sides, some led to
sleeping quarters, kitchen, showers, ordnance,
ammo, and other such rooms. I learned that they
can handle over two hundred staff twenty four
hours a day for six months with out ever coming
out. This amazed me. You sure couldn't tell it
from the outside.

I was then shown the command center. This area
shocked me. I could not believe what I was seeing.
This room was about 75 feet by 120 feet. It to was
secured by armed guards both outside the door and
inside. To my left was a bank of computer
terminals, each one staffed by personnel by a man
or woman in blue uniforms. They were busy. To the
right and running the length of the wall was at
least 25 cubicles that contained a computer
terminal and a red phone. There were no staff at
these terminals. I asked why and was told that
they were for emergency use only. As I walked down
the length of the wall I read some listings as to
what the computers and phone lines were connected
to. They had direct access to sheriff's
departments, police departments, and all law
enforcement agencies in a three state area. I
asked more questions but my guide informed me that
he could not reveal }certain information to me
because it was classified. He did tell me that in
the event that "The order was given" that all law
enforcement agencies from local to state and
federal would be controlled from this room.

The center was totally self contained. They had
their own power supply and enough weapons to fight
a big war. I was not allowed inside the weapons
room but was told by my guide that I would not
believe what they had in there. I would believe it

A few days later I went back to the area to
observe from the out side. I found their
ventilation shack and a few other vital areas. I
also observed hidden video cameras and what I took
to be listening devices.

Back to the inside of the command center. One of
the computer centers was receiving live video from
cameras from several different areas. They could
zoom in on an area several miles away and identify
small objects.

More information later.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 16:53 - ID#246224)
Can surely sympathize with your recent bout of pessimism regarding our glittering friends. The 'Federal Gang' is neither omnipotent nor omnipresent, nor any other "omni-" one might think of for that matter. They have their season, for now only. These things never last very long. And if that is STILL true, then holding the precious for a year or so will be more than very well reimbursed.

Turn your passion to patience and "let us watch this new gold market together, yes?" YES!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:01 - ID#413307)
@ Farfel: cheer up my friend. Rubin is rumored to be
resigning early next year, and Greenspan in due for retirement,
and the IMF gold sale ( sic ) did NOT damp the gold spike today.
I think the low is in, and your pessimism, above all is a
major indicator of that fact. The gold carry should terminate
with the next drop of a quarter percent in the Fed rate.
Greenspan has admitted that this is the major mechanism in the
control of the POG. I think we saw the first fund head for the
exits by covering its short position in bullion today. More will
follow. I wouldn't be surprised if a final attempt is made to
hammer gold down, but without the leasing scam, the Fed will
have to resort to rumor mongering like this IMF farce today.
I make my final gold purchase this week, so I don't care what
anybody says, I'm buying more.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:06 - ID#194311)
raconteur....getting in at the bottom.
Perhaps you should widen your time horizon a little before you're sure of the "bottom". Also measuring in a truly stable currency like gold will help.

SLB/AU will tell the true story. the fact that many but a few will see high stock prices as the "bottom" is clear the mania is complete, all collective memory of low prices has been eliminated.

It is now for the true individuals to go forth and make their fortunes.

Gold Dancer
(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:07 - ID#430221)
Gold and manipulation
Sometimes I go along with those that think the price of gold is
manipulated and at other times it seems that it can't be. Not really.
If the American people were smart they would never have bid stock prices so high. They would have been willing to see that increasing
debts were dangerous and that the US was the biggest debtor Nation in
the world so how could the $ be strong?

But most Americans are not smart economically speaking and here is
where the savy can manipulate markets thru false reports. They talk
down gold and the people buy stock instead. So it seems like manipulation
but if THE PEOPLE opened their eyes to the lies and false reports
and bought gold the price would rise. And no amount of Central Bank leasing could keep it down.

It is the people's fault in the end: stock tulips and give away gold. The people created these price differentials.

Now that prices are so low for gold and gold stocks the news must
change because that is were the money can be made. It can't be made in
the general stockmarket without a great deal of risk. Smart money
does not like to take risks.

We will just have to wait for things to change. Actually they are
changing. Certainly the news is changing for the better concerning
gold. Price advance will happen later. December is a tough month
for an asset that is at 20 year lows. But this is where the bargains
are and this is where I plan to say for many years.

I don't spend as much time looking at the markets in Dec. and I feel
happier to just let things go for this month. My time is coming.
I just need patience.

Thanks, GD

(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:23 - ID#29048)
Notes on Gold surge...

Most sources attributed the uptick to technically-driven trade buying by large trade houses and to Australian producer buybacks.

And Oil

News New York--Dec 7--NYMEX energy futures rose amid concern that key OPEC members may be considering ways to firm sagging oil prices. Jan crude ended up 28c at $11.45. Jan heating oil ended up 80 points at 33.00c, while Jan gasoline settled up 60 points at 34.79c.
* * *
Speculation has centered around the annual Gulf Cooperation Council meeting today. Four of the 6 GCC members--Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar--are OPEC members and they were expected to discuss a Algeria's call for an OPEC summit.
Also, Saudi Arabia entered the meeting expecting to call for a more
united stance on the world oil market. A report after the market closed
quoted Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah as calling the current oil market in
crisis stage.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:27 - ID#354133)
Welcome to Kitco classified
Gold a dollar below spot. You buy ten ounces and you "save" ten bucks. And commission.

Big whoopee.

Like I said before, buy from Kitco and think of the difference in price as an investment in this forum, a most entertaining and informative newsletter! ( in between sales pitches )

And, as an added bonus, no constantly ringing phones from arrogant, high pressure, bait-and-switch sales clerks!

Let the buyers and lurkers beware...

Go golf!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 17:45 - ID#268260)
Amidst all of the doom and gloom and pessimism and nay-saying, your logical analyses run parallel to my own. I, too, believe the bottom is in with regard to our precious. A little more sideways action can be expected over the next week or so due to rollovers and tax-selling. Once AG lowers the interest rates another .25% the gold carry becomes uneconomical. Sometime before Christmas, there will be a spike up for the gold shares and we will watch the birth of ANOTHER gold bull together - yes? Tell it like it is, brother!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:10 - ID#254321)
Gold carry trade to end? Only if US, other major currencies weaken
Dutchman: Good point. I don't know if another 0.25% drop in rates will be enough, but the worldwide competitive devaluations are on their way ( via dropping interest rates ) . It may not be smooth sailing however, since deflation rather than inflation may be the rule for a time. Deflationary events through credit collapses are likely to be dramatic discrete events, with AG and his equivalents all over the world desperately trying to inflate their fiat currencies. Until an internationally recognized gold-backed currency puts a stop to this folly.

Any idea what happens to the gold carry trade during deflationary times? It could be that the US dollar does not get weaker relative to gold even with dropping US interest rates. Could the lease rate for gold drop as well? The value of gold ( corrected for the value of the US dollar ) has been dropping steadily for decades. Ever since 1980. But -- the tide is slowly but surely turning -- we just don't know exactly when.

Could be we might have to wait for a time before the true ( non-dollar ) price of gold begins to rise again. Comments?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:12 - ID#20359)
the more I see...the more I believe that Yossarian was right...yup...uh huh...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:14 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.77. The 233 day moving average is 29.23

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:14 - ID#432298)
I and every other kitcoite would love to see gold and gold mining shares
finally break out of the narrow trading range it has been in for the past couple of months. The only thing is I believe that every attempt in
the past for a price break out has failed due to some negative news
effecting the precious metals markets, and I don't see that changing. Some news or event will depress a potential gold run. There is a conspirecy to keep the price of gold down or it is one hell of a coinsedence that it hasn't moved up by now.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:17 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .232. The 233 day moving average is .248

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:20 - ID#285392)
Chas (Charlie)
This is the information Envy was good enough to supply me with.

Good luck

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:20 - ID#343171)
dig this latest, market 'similarity with late 1920s'
Monday December 7, 3:58 pm Eastern Time

Greenspan sees mkt similarity with late 1920s-book

NEW YORK, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saw parallels between U.S. financial market conditions
in 1998 and in the late 1920s but said even a U.S. market stock crash would not necessarily lead to a depression, former Fed
governor Lawrence Lindsey said in his latest book.

``There are all sorts of parallels to the late 1920s,'' Lindsey quoted Greenspan as telling him in a private meeting in mid-April 1998.

``But you have a to be a little careful about the 1929-1932 analogies,'' Greenspan was further quoted as saying, in reference to the
U.S. stock market crash of October 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression.

Lindsey, who served as Fed Board Governor from November 1991 to February 1997, interviewed Greenspan for his just published book on U.S. and foreign central
banking, ``Economic Puppetmasters, Lessons from the Halls of Power.''

Lindsey currently holds the chair of economics at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, a private think-tank. He also is managing director of the private
advisory service Economic Strategies.

While Greenspan agreed U.S. capital markets looked bubbly, he told Lindsey there were enough differences with the 1920s, including in monetary policy, to avoid an
economic meltdown.

``The problem is that if ( tight monetary policy ) actions in 1930 and 1931 were taken differently, we might have had a fairly significant recession, but we would not have
had the deep fall that we know as the Great Depression,'' Greenspan also told Lindsey.

Greenspan acted on an easing bias to lower the federal funds rate in a rare inter-meeting move on October 15. That rate cut was one of three rapid Fed easing since
late September to help U.S. capital markets regain their composure.

The Fed chairman also expressed concern to Lindsey that pricey financial assets could eventually result in sectorial inflationary pressures.

``Stock prices do seem to be headed skyward,'' said Greenspan who added he ``does not know anything more than I knew back then,'' when he commented on
``irrational exuberance'' in December 1996 when the Dow Jones industrial average was trading at around 6500.

``You see some unquestionable acceleration in the prices of some properties and in certain areas of speculative activity reminiscent of the 1980s, but overall, we fall well
short of that,'' Greenspan added.

Lindsey described Greenspan as ``optimistic that history will not repeat itself,'' and remarking on the limited economic impact of the October 1987 crash.

``There's no guarantee that even if you get to a 1929, you'll end up with a 1932,'' Greenspan further told his former fellow policymaker.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:21 - ID#43460)
All: some assorted mining press releases, Aurator, more about pig worship
Yahoo had a particularly interesting group of press releases today. Here is alittle bit of this and a little bit of that, nothing recommended but it is good to keep in touch with the news:

Aurator, snake handlers are just a minor 'Merkan sect. Pig worshippers are numerous and can be found in the oddeset places. But it is important to never assume that all 'Merkans are in the pig clan lest one run afoul of a Corn Husker, a Sooner hound, or a Tiger.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:21 - ID#20359)
Kaplan is priceless...simply priceless...yup..uh huh...
WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN: The P/E ratio on the S&P 500 closed at 31.17 on Monday, December 7, 1998, thus demonstrating conclusively that there is no intelligent life on earth. On Friday, November 27, 1998, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 closed at 31.29, a new all-time record.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:25 - ID#249232)
I expect a full scale depression to begin unfolding in Q1-2, 1999
Sounds extreme ? I don't think so. We are in a run away deflation which will culminate in a full scale depression. The CRB just recorded new low's and unemployment in the manufacturing sector is rising. This deflationary trend can't be stopped or altered by any politician or central banker. It will run to exhaustion. Once the American public understand that we are facing a depression, it will begin selling equities on a massive scale .There is no way out. Look around the globe, as each month passes by, economic conditions in the far east are deteriorating further, Europe is about to enter a serious recession and all governments are very worried. What will be done about it ? Nothing. Trade war is for certain and currencies are becoming worthless as many are being devalued on a monthly basis. Farfel, our day is coming soon as gold will explode upward.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:25 - ID#317193)
John Disney...St. Helena...????
Dear John: )

I have not been able to find any reports that provide the basis for my darlings loss of value...any info from RSA that you could provide would be appreciated...before I buy more.

Having read the posts fron this afternoon I am sure your contrary indicator just went through the roof. Mine did. Now all gold needs is a few more crients.

White House investigation....????? Something smells...ain't just my feet.



(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:26 - ID#350194)
@Farfel and All manipulation converts.
This from last night was very interesting:
Date: Sun Dec 06 1998 23:21
pdeep ( Earl ) ID#174103:
Heh! Being a freshman in matters of gold trading here at Kitco University, I could not
hazard a guess at who "they" are. Maybe there are many "theys." All I can say is that
the gold price time series is behaving very abnormally relative to other financial time
series I have analyzed. The noise characteristics leave little up to "random interactions."
You might expect that downward trends or upward trends would be re-enforced a lot
more than they are. But the exact opposite is true.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:32 - ID#20768)
@all: James P. Hoffa tonite ....

.... is interviewed on the PBS News Hour. His main theme is simple: FAIR trade - not FREE trade!

Bob in DC

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:35 - ID#26793)
It does not sound extreme to me, in fact, I think you are understating the case. I expect something worse than the 30's.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:35 - ID#20359)
I am convinced the world is nuts...I just finished reading some materials that were given
to me by a neighbor...pamphlets they received with various publications and mailingstopics coveredthe governmentthe new world orderthe militiasthe republicansthe democratspro-clintonanti clintonetc

I have decided to become a Yossarian followerall I need now is a raft and a couple of plastic oars and then a good push off the shoreyup

The world is nutsplain and simple

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:37 - ID#215235)
The unilateral interest rate cuts around the world signal potential chaos in the cash and derivative markets. Russia is about to go belly up. Brazil is a basket case. The Europeans, and now the Asians and Arabs are talking about swapping Yankee dollars for gold and each other's fiat currency. Everybody and their mother is buying gold coins, so much so that the mints are back ordered. Ever shake a bottle of soda and then release it? Get ready for gold fizz. We will see the POG at $350 by the 2nd quarter of 1999. After that, one can only speculate. Buy low, sell high. We are at the lows. Load up now when everybody is pessimistic and you will reap the rewards in the near future. Thus spake the Dutchman.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:37 - ID#254321)
A Clue reagarding why Galaxy 4 failed
All: Looks like the earth's radiation belts are far less benign than originally thought. Fluctuations in the earth's ( or sun's? ) magnetic field can have dramatic effects, documented by space borne detectors. No wonder NASA is monitoring 'space weather' on a continous basis.

I wonder -- what do the space station occupants do if there is a sudden solar flare -- 24 hours will not be enough time for evacuation.

Just wait till our current solar cycle peaks -- we are likely to lose a few more satellites, if these radiation surges zapped Galaxy 4.

PS -- You need to scroll down to 3pm on Fox news today. LGB - you should read this article.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:38 - ID#231337)
Gagnard... one more interesting Jr. to add to the list you supplied.
It is warming up in this sector.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:45 - ID#410194)
Educational reality check!
Dow Jones today: 9070 ( confirmed )

Reached new all-time highs 2 weeks ago. ( confirmed )

Dows Jones on October 12th: 7950 ( confirmed )

Date: Mon Oct 12 1998 19:42

JP ( We are still in a Dow Theory Confirmed bear market ) ID#253153:

I would like to remind you folks that we are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed since Aug 4 when the bear market was confirmed. The advance decline line looks terrible despite all temporary rallies. The bond market is correcting it's long advance and rates will resume their decline soon. We are in a deflationary phase that can't be reversed or altered by any politician or central bankers. Attempts will be made to reverse the deflationary trend but they are doom to fail. We had our runaway inflationary phase between 1966-1982 when inflation peaked at 14.4 % annual rates

THE Priest
(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:45 - ID#369333)
i find today's move
very appealing will comment later

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:46 - ID#254321)
Depression ahead?
Donald, JP: I agree 100% on the event, but not on the timing.

JP: Don't assume gold will go up in US dollars during an explosive deflationary process outside the US. This is exactly what happened on Oct 97, and gold went South. Gold will rise if the US dollar is devalued, or if the worldwide deflationary collapses end. We are not there yet -- still have South America, and Europe. US probably will go with Europe, with a major Oct 97-like twitch when South America goes.

Wish I didn't say these things, but the likelihood is high. Gold will be a reliable long-term investment only after all the deflationary turmoil ends.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:47 - ID#317193)
Tol#1...Changing my name...AG....
Prior to my retirement I will assist in the establishment of an automatic capital flow system for the world economy since human nature can not adjust with sufficient speed to avoid misallocation of investment funds. Central banks stand ready to control the price of gold. Many countries are not capable of overseeing malinvestment in bank lending. The current spreads in the bond markets suggest adversion to risk with regard to the liquidity of the instrument causing spreads to widen. some gold.

Tom ak ( 47 ) a...AG

speculation but read what he has said...again

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:48 - ID#343171)
"We will see the POG at $350 by the 2nd quarter of 1999. After that, one can only speculate."
sounds like you're spec'latin now! what if the saudis or some other
CB clowns sell gold?
Us goldbugs are too smart for our own good, how many of us 'invested'
in crumby fundamentals but its making traders rich,
just like Bre-x did 2 years ago, my best investment ever was a scam

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:49 - ID#284255)
Swing chart

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:50 - ID#249232)
Realistic--Yes, We are still in a Dow Theory confirmed bear market
Yes, the Dow reached new high's 2 weeks ago but the Transport index and the NY advance/decline line DID NOT confirm.The Transport index is far away from reaching new high's. According to the Dow Theory,both the Dow and Transport index MUST record new high's. Until then, we are in a confirmed bear market.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:50 - ID#26793)
A single troubled borrower could cause all the banks in Guatemala to fail

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:55 - ID#219363)
Liz Claiborne To Cut 400 Jobs
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Faced with sagging sales and profits, Liz Claiborne Inc. will eliminate about 400 jobs, close 30 retail stores and try to improve its ailing business at department stores.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:56 - ID#219363)
Lear Corp. To Cut 2,800 Jobs
SOUTHFIELD, Mich. ( AP ) -- Automotive supplier Lear Corp. said Monday it will cut 2,800 jobs, or about 4 percent of its work force, and close 18 plants as part of a previously announced plan to cut costs. Spokeswoman Karen Stewart would not say which plants are affected. She said those details would be given directly to employees. About 1,100 of the jobs will be cut in North America, the rest in Europe. Two of the plants to be closed are in North America, 15 in Europe and one in South America.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:57 - ID#343171)
a gentleman never mentions "Liz Claiborne" and "sagging"
in the same sentence

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:58 - ID#317193)
THOUGHTS...of AG..................


(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:58 - ID#219363)
: )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 18:59 - ID#249232)
JTF__As deflation deepens the US dollar will decline
against foreign currencies but domestically it's purchasing power will rise substantially. As the US dollar decline internationally, gold will rise and equities will decline.The US dollar will be devalued internationally against gold backed currencies. Also, gold will rise because AG will attempt to raise it's price to create liquidity.However, I do believe that within 2-3 years the dollar will be backed by gold.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:02 - ID#317193) I have to buy coffe futures???
We'll see.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:03 - ID#215235)
I have put my money where my mouth is. The next few months will tell me if my mouth is lined with gold or up my arse. Until then, I will continue to speculate that I am right. The thick pessimism on this forum further validates my theory. The stars are aligned perfectly and my chicken bobes are sreaming out: Buy, you dumby! Nobody wants the stuff. And that is precisely the time to buy. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it!

Off to the hospital to see a friend's new baby. Will put in my vote to call her Goldy.

Strad Master
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:04 - ID#250297)
Galaxy 4?
JTF: I missed the news that Galaxy 4 failed. ( Not surprising - given what little time I have to devote to following current events. ) Did it? When? Am I mistaken, or was there a posting here a few months ago stating that Galaxy 4 was going to be tested for Y2K compliance in mid/late November in time to coincide with the Leonid meteor shower. The thrust of that post was that if Galaxy 4 shut down due to non-compliance, it could be easily blamed on an errant meteor rather than stir up Y2K panic. A satellite failure could be attributed to any number of cosmic events, so if they weren't ready to test it by the projected date in November, a solar flare would be a convenient an excuse for December. I printed the post out and saved it, but tossed it when I didn't hear any further news. Now, your post about Galaxy 4 failing due to solar flares jogged my memory. Does anyone else remember this? Am I correct in the details?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:07 - ID#20359)
Did the aliens land today? I thought today was ET Day somewhere out west...
anybody have any reports...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:07 - ID#343171)
unfortunatly I too have put my money where my mouth was, in gold!
But I made it all in gold so if I am down 75% in 2 years so be it,
but it does help being up over 1000% in 4 years, helps ease the pain.

Just bought puts friday, more for spite than profit

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:11 - ID#20359) where is that little yellow raft and them plastic oars...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:12 - ID#343171)
does Pearl Harbor day count?

Strad Master
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:19 - ID#250297)
Don't worry
TOLERANT1: It's ALWAYS ET landing day out West. They're always flying around dimwitted people like Art Bell who live in the "out west" desert. It's when they land in the East that you have to start to be concerned.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:19 - ID#43460)
ORCA for some reason my isp wont let me get to your url
Would you mind giving a brief synopsis and a couple of keywords? Tnx

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:22 - ID#343171)
'Clinton to wear pants half down to honor Pearl
Harbor survivors'

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:22 - ID#284255)
Strad Master
It was Galaxy 5 that had the Leonids rumour.

I think Galaxy 4 was the one that went down months ago when all the pagers in the US went dead.

Strad Master
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:25 - ID#250297)
Galaxy Shmalexy
SHAREFIN: Thanks for the info. A subtle but important distinction. I guess the Leonid rumor turned out to nothing more than that.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:41 - ID#348257)
I guess I "pass" the poll. Not only do I know who Tolerant 1 is, I have aciually had dinner with him on several occasions ( Long Isl and's north shore is quite an enlightened community ) . You would do well to know him and be in his company. He hands out gold coins like they were peppermint lifesavers.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:42 - ID#348257)
Paprikash Forever! How the hell are you my man?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:43 - ID#284255)
Cyclone Thelma - going for gold

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:46 - ID#252391)
Overhead resistance
Not much follow through in the overnight session to golds mini spurt. See signifigant overhead resistance in the XAU at 73 and on NEM at 21 7/8.

Rather doubt we'll see either soon, but maybe in a day and one half...good place to sell this weak sector.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:46 - ID#428232)
sharefin (Swing chart)....

After the "roller coaster" things always run FLAT...........



Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:47 - ID#428232)
sharefin .........

Cyclone Billy stopped play in the eastern Goldfields, Thelma yet to arrive...

What ever happened to Louise ?

Strad Master
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:49 - ID#250297)
Alive and well.
MIKE SHELLER: Too busy!! Never get time to post much anymore. Only reason I had time today was that I had my 10 1/2 month old in my lap while my wife was taking a nap. Had to do all the typing with one hand while she squirmed im my left. More often than not, I sometimes lurk late at night and I've found that it isn't worth posting since very few seem to read the stuff that accumulates overnight and then the response rate to questions is terrible. All is well here and I'll e-mail you to bring you up to date on details. Hope all is well at your end.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:49 - ID#428232)
CoolJing ('Clinton to wear pants half down to honor Pearl).....

Well, it's better than "normal"......

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:55 - ID#343171)
It said a survey was taken this afternoon in a
shopping mall in Hayward, California. 30 people over the
age of 40 were asked if they the know the historical
significance of today's date, December 7th?


Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:57 - ID#348257)
and what is even more disturbing is that none of them knew who Tolerant 1 was ( is ) .

Arrigato! Happy 7th.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:57 - ID#343171)
my last one from Vronsky site.
Greenstone: do you have any insights into Greenstone Gold value and
possible breakup worth/timing of buyout?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:57 - ID#343171)
that last one from Vronsky
Greenstone: do you have any insights into Greenstone Gold value and
possible breakup worth/timing of buyout?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 19:59 - ID#222231)
I have often wondered why the POG has been decreasing and in the doldrums for the past 18 yrs.. The obvious is to discourage holding the precious yellow by the majority and the accumulation of the physical slowly and without undue notice by the powers that be. An ongoing scenario.

The elite want the introduction of a one world currency and central bank that would run the planet by a few. The plan must be to concentrate power into regional centers such as the ECB and then drive the final nail home by fusing them together, such as the WB, IMF, etc. into a one world dictatorship. We have not seen this completly accomplished as yet, but they are well on the way.

What better way is there to do the above than to control the majority of the worlds gold and future production of same. The bloodbath is not over and probably won't be for several years until they flush out whatever gold is left by either acquisitions of mineral rights of the world through bankruptcy and forced liquidation of the masses by neccessity.

This will entail a financial and currency chaos throughout the world that will make the masses cry for a solution. The NWO will have the solution and the power to satisfy the masses of course, and their final coup d'etat will be to give us all the shaft. By controlling everything from banks, currencies, governments, corporate conglomerates, gold, the power of world taxation through the UN, world commodities from food to oil to you name it, we all, but the privilaged few, will be slaves to the world company store.

To those that believe the above is not happening I say, "YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN YET". There is nothing that is going to stop them save GOD. We have no one to blame but ourselves. Start praying brother and sister sinners!

All of the above is just a figment of my imagination?


PS: What makes anyone think that after the world turmoil we have seen in nations, currencies and finances for several years, that would normally move gold at the least by $100/oz higher, think that it is about to move now. Gold will only move higher when they have absolute, total control. Think long and hard on this; got your weapon of choice?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:00 - ID#343171)
I have joined the vaunted triple post club.
did nothing but click 'submit' once, nothing else!?
Maybe Bart figures I deserve the bandwidth

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:04 - ID#288264)
International Forcaster....Bob Chapman

If Canada had raised interest rates just 1/2-1% six months ago, the dollar would still be over 70 cents to the U.S. dollar. A 1/4% increase a few months ago was a wasted effort. They raised rates 1%, but the damage was done. The dollar plunged as we predicted to 63 cents. The next step is 50-53 cents. A drop in the dollar is causing a psychological crisis of confidence and will push Canada into recession. There is no question the funk in commodity markets is adversely affecting the country. Overall debt is overwhelming. This is why the dollar finally went into the tank. As a delaying action taxes should be cut $9-$18 billion or 1-2%. It is now only a matter of time before Canada's economy worsens. Canada is already in recession.

Canadian Security Intelligence Service ( CSIS ) says Canada has more international terrorist groups than any country in the world. this is caused by open immigration and refugee policies. More and more terrorist headquarters for Hizbollah, Hamas, the provisional IRA and Tamal Tigers are being moved from England to Canada.

Canadian armed forces leave may be canceled from dec 1/99 to sometime in March 2000, similar to a declaration by RCMP, due to possible Y2K disruptions.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:07 - ID#343171)
CNN headline: 'Reno says no to Clinton PROBE'
If only Monica had done the same.
my favotie headline so far: WSJ 'Clinton move may lengthen Lewinsky probe'

KITCO posters bummer-mood index indicates high probability of higher au prices soon

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:10 - ID#252391)
@ Mike Sheller
Who is Tolerant 1???

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:10 - ID#348257)
so I goes
to "Just for Feet" to get a new pair of running shoes for my 5:45 a.m. roadwork, and the first pair I try on is really peachy - $139 air Nikes that make my sore left heel feel like its being coddled and bounced with loving caresses. Made in China. No sweat - my grandchild will likely bear the same appellation some day. But I don't like the blue design. So I ask for the black n' white version, and I get it. I look inside the tongue when I get home, and it says "Made in Vietnam." Hot Damn.
I kinda chant the "Jody was there when you left...sound off" stuff while I run at dawn anyhow. Just like the old days a Dix, and Aberdeen, and Fort Lewis. Never got to run much in Nam, except from the heavy sh*t.
What goes around comes around. Maybe I'll jog with the old field jacket one morning. Just for old times sake.

or is that Sake.


Happy December 7th everyone.

PS - Used to do some promotion for accounts of the 2nd largest Ad agency in Japan a few years back ( when the Nikkei was up around 30 thou ) and on December 7th the Japanese Execs were very scarce indeed.
Hey. No hard feelings. It wasn't MY war.

Come to think of it, if I ran into a Viet Cong Charlie tommorrow, I'd take him out for a beer or a Martini. Got more in common with him than that bas*ard McNamara. That's for sure.

Forgive n' forget, I say.

Unless you got yer leg blown off.

Then I can only speak for myself.



(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:11 - ID#20359)
CoolJing, StradMaster, Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulps and puffs all around and a
special wish of long life and Golden prosperity to the little one...yup...uh huh...

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:11 - ID#348257)
I wonder that meself.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:28 - ID#252391)
Weakness in South Africans....
... most likely attributed to the strenght in the dollar which got up to 5.90 Rand to the dollar. this depresses the dollar price for these shares. The JSE All Gold was up 2.7% today and looks to have turned a little corner.

Sgoly down to 2 5/8 - yield must be close to 18% per year - if it can be counted on. You'd think the Japanese Insurance companies who buy dividend securities prior to their going exdividend for the income stream might pick up a little Sgoly...... now that would make sense....

THE Priest
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:28 - ID#369333)
A New Era:
i see this gold market like a big supper tanker in the bay. It intrigues me to watch as the captain continues to make three point turns so he will be able to move this massive ship through the bay.Well the price of gold seems to maneuver the same way eventually as it crosses through into open seas. Be carefully day trader's don't get left behind

more to come

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:30 - ID#252391)
Better information on SGOLY

Sorry last was 2 3/8 and the yield is 25%

Must be going broke - nothing is that good.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:33 - ID#224230)
UK Navy asleep on the bridge...Y2K incompliant. Nukes, too ! Incoming !!
That it should come to this. Once a mere 20 million of us Brits RULED THE WHOLE WORLD...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:41 - ID#376309)
This rally is Great! I can't believe I'm making money on the long side. I can't remeber the last time I was long AND making money!
Gold closed above the 200 day moving average and should base for awhile. We may run up past today's highs this week but don't get to excited.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:43 - ID#174103)
JTF,this one's for you
Ivanov PC, Rosenblum MG et al. "Scaling behaviour of heartbeat intervals obtained by wavelet-based time-series analysis. Nature 383:323-327. Enjoy.

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:46 - ID#348257)
THE Priest
call me whatever you like, but don't call me late for supper ( tanker ) .

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:48 - ID#348257)
as I said a while ago - if gold can close above 297.50, we're going to 370 in the Spring. Period.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:52 - ID#411259)
..... Gunny the Sad .....

Thinks that gold below spot is a bad deal
Although he can name no other offer like it
All he offers this forum is zero
Unless I post something of interest
Then he crawls out from under the floorboards
To try to convince all that I am evil incarnate
With horns and razor sharp talons

But all he shows us is his own shallow wit
And his own true short measure of a man

And now, he once again is harming Bart
Buy his silly and selfish campaign
Against PAID advertisers on this site

Can the rest of Kitcoville tell this worm to go away?

Thanks GunnyBoy, you just won a bet for me
Why don't you e-mail me at
And I can take you to dinner with my winnings?

Champaign all around and slabs of prime rib
Lobster juice and butter running down our chins
There will still be enough of my winnings left
To pay you cab fair home, rather than put you back on the bus
You didn't think you were going to spend the night, did you?

Never on the first date.

Oh Yes

THE Priest
(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:53 - ID#369333)
Mike Sheller (
maybe we should talk your 370 please elaborate

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:58 - ID#242325)
If you increase your cash position in anticipation of Y2K, be sure you don't violate the law along the way.The banking laws of the United States impose many restrictions on banking ( particularly cash ) transactions that could be used to make your life very unpleasant. ( Other nations have similar laws as well. ) Congress justified these laws as necessary to combat money laundering by organized crime and illegal drug operations. In their broad scope, however, they apply equally to law-abiding citizens conducting perfectly legitimate activities. The following guidelines are
provided to keep you from inadvertently violating these laws. Cash Transaction Reporting ( CTR ) . All cash transactions of ten thousand dollars or more must be reported to the Treasury Department.
The obligation for meeting this requirement falls on the merchant or bank. You are not required to do anything yourself. If you make a purchase or withdrawal from a financial institution ( bank, credit union or thrift ) THEY are required to report it to the government. If the bank or merchant fails to file the form, they are in violation - not you. Please note that this law applies to CASH transactions only. If you write a check for ten thousand dollars, no report is required.

What happens to these reports? In all likelihood, they go inside some anonymous room in Washington and some faceless bureaucrat puts the information into a computerized database. Most of the data will probably never be used but that's not the point. The fact is the information is there, it involves you and your private financial affairs and could conceivably be used against you ( on purpose or in error ) by some overzealous or unscrupulous government official.
( Note: There is also an information gathering requirement involving the
purchase of cash equivalent instruments such as cashier's checks,
money orders etc. For every such transaction [cash or otherwise] of
three thousand dollars or greater, banking institutions must keep a
record of the purchaser's identity including name, address, social
security number, etc. )

Structuring. Now, I'm sure your fertile little mind cooked up a clever way
to avoid this CTR requirement. Surely all you need to do is make
several small withdrawals instead of one big one. For example, you
might withdraw five thousand dollars this week and another five
thousand next week.

OOPS! You have just violated the law - not the bank but you.

What you have done is to "Structure" these two related transactions so
as to avoid the Cash Transaction Reporting laws and to do so is illegal.
Does it matter that you didn't intend to break the law or that you didn't
even know such a law existed? No. Most federal courts have
interpreted the banking laws as "strict liability statutes" meaning that
neither intent nor knowledge is necessary to break the law. Speeding
laws fit into this same category. You speed, you pay.

The chilling part of the structuring laws is that it is the bank that makes
the decision on whether or not to report you to the federal authorities
and it is purely a judgment call on their part. One bank might report you
for making ten thousand dollars of cash withdrawals over a six-week
period. Another might turn you in for doing the same over a six-month

Suspicious Activity Report ( SAR ) . Banks are obligated by the law to
report any cash related transactions that even appear suspicious in
nature. In any amount. If you take a thousand dollars out of the bank and
someone there doesn't like your hairdo or your earring, they can report
the transaction to the Treasury Department. This does not mean you
have violated the law, it just means a report has gone to the government
about your cash transaction.

So what should you do? If you plan to build up significant cash in any
amount, I suggest a personal visit to a bank official. Take along a letter
from your lawyer plus a copy of the August 20, 1998 USA Today article
that says the Federal Reserve is increasing the nation's cash reserve to
accommodate those who are concerned about Y2K. The letter should
explain that you are concerned about Y2K and that you wish to take
advantage of the increased supply of cash. Indicate that you understand
there are some forms that need to be filled out and that you wish to be
fully compliant with the banking laws. Then fill out the forms. Ask for the
letter and the article and copies of the forms to be placed in your file.
Then forget about it. You have satisfied the law and justified your large
cash withdrawal by pre-solving any administrative problems.

The above are three areas of existing banking regulations. Another,
even more far- reaching and ( some would say ) intrusive regulation is on
the way. According to the FDIC, as found on their web site, a regulation
is scheduled to take effect early next year that would operate as
indicated below.

"As proposed, the regulation would require each nonmember bank to
develop a program designed to determine the identity of its customers;
determine its customers' source of funds; determine the normal and
expected transactions of its customers; monitor account activity for
transactions that are inconsistent with those normal and expected
transactions; and report any transactions of its customers that are
determined to be suspicious, in accordance with the FDIC's existing
suspicious activity reporting regulation. By requiring insured
nonmember banks to determine the identity of their customers, as well
as to obtain knowledge regarding the legitimate activities of their
customers, the proposed regulation will reduce the likelihood that
insured nonmember banks will become unwitting participants in illicit
activities conducted or attempted by their customers."

This regulation could cause grief for individuals pulling funds out of the
banking system in preparation for Y2K. Suppose, for example that the
bank builds a profile of a customer indicating a regular amount of
deposits and withdrawals per month. If that customer suddenly changes
that profile, ( by withdrawing cash in whatever amount, for example ) the
bank may report that customer to the FBI for investigation. The size of
the withdrawal is immaterial; it is the irregularity that sets off the alarm.

According to the FDIC, the proposed regulation is authorized by current
law stemming from the statutory authority granted the FDIC under
section 8 ( s ) ( 1 ) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act ( 12 U.S.C.
18189s ) ( 1 ) , as amended by section 259 ( a ) ( 2 ) of the Crime Control Act
of 1990 ( Pub. L.101-647 ) .

This regulation is not yet in effect; indeed a period of public comment is
currently in process. If you are so inclined, comments from the public
may be sent to Robert E. Feldman, Executive Secretary, Attn:
Comments/OES, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 550 17th
Street NW, Washington, DC 20429 or faxed to ( 202 ) 898-3838. The
deadline for comments is December 27.

This week's tip is, if you intend to increase your cash position in
preparation for Y2K, be sure you understand and avoid running afoul of
the current and proposed banking regulations. If you are unhappy with
the proposed regulation outlined above, inform the FDIC. I would also
suggest letting your Congressman know how you feel about the matter
as well.

Good Luck!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 20:58 - ID#287129)
Is it safe to re-enter the gold market?
It's been several months since I've posted on this newsgroup. After over 18 months of gold-bashing, my losses literally drove me into bankruptcy. My absence from this newsgroup was because my losses got too heavy for me to bear, and with my back against the wall I had no choice but to lose almost everything. Even reading this site for the last couple of months was almost too depressing for me to tolerate after gambling my future security and losing to the shorts.

Unfortunately, if people lose 50% to 90% on their stock market holdings in the coming year, that will not equal the ratio of my own personal losses to what was invested. For example, Caledonia Mining ( peaking at over $8.00 a share, I bought at $5.00 per share and again at 75 cents per share ) is now a measley 10 cents per share. I got into Pegasus Gold at $2.00 per share, then again at 60 cents per share. It is now less than 4 cents per share. I got into another stock at 50 cents per share, and it is now less than 2 cents per share...and the story goes on and on. The result was financial armageddon. The shorts won and I lost everything, and almost lost my marriage as well.

Now some of my friends are suggesting that I start buying gold stocks at current firesale prices with what little money I have ( hundreds rather than thousands ) so that I can get in before the Y2K scare. After losing everything and realizing one of my worst three fears, I can't help but wonder whether it is safe to re-enter the gold market again.

If the DOW crashes, I'll have empathy for the common people...but I'll have little if any empathy for those who caused us gold bugs to get wiped out.

Now I'm working two jobs just to try to get back on my feet. Had I remained in the DOW, my net worth would be in the 6-digit figures. Instead, I made what I felt were the right decisions, but I made them too soon. Am I alone, or are there many others like me around the world?


The Hatt
(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:01 - ID#294232)
Weak Knees On Kitco!
The IMF rumour had many posters puking this am and now that gold has moved up a couple of dollars the same pseudo goldbugs come out of the woodwork. Real gold bugs donot panic and or throw in the towel that easy so if you want to know who is real and who is not simply scroll through this mornings posts before market open. Enjoy reading posts that are thought out and make some reasonable sense. Knee jerk posts are a waste of time....

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:04 - ID#376309)
To Skip
I hear you. Don't want to recite it here but every trader has been on hard times at one point, usually early in there career.

Stay away from Gold and Gold shares!! This run up is a trading affair and NOTHING MORE!! Save your money pay your bills off and take care of your family. In a year from now come back and we'll talk. And it will take that long before the real thing.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:05 - ID#26793)
Psssst; hey meester, wanna buy a moon rock?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:09 - ID#348257)
THE Priest
damn... am I the only one who can't stand those long posts. Who has the time???

Anyhow - you wanted me to elaborate on the 370. Ok -
Gold since 1987 has been travelling in a cylindrical channel, just about perfectly parrallel. The price is now at the bottom ( support ) of this channel ( actually, rising OFF the bottom ) . The price since the late August low has made what I call a "Rhino" pattern. A peak in late Sept/early October, a decline, and then a second, lower peak ( the horn of the Rhino ) in mid November. I find if you connect the higher peak with the lower ( the horn ) you get an overhanging resistance line that, when penetrated on the upside, leas to a rally. This is a simple downtrend, or triangle, actually, but I find the "Rhino" a more definitive and descriptive way to view it.

Downtrend breakout for gold ( to the upside ) is between 297.50 ( for short term Rhino ) and 300 ( for major pattern of last several months. If gold gets through these barriers, then the way is clear to rally back to resistance in the downchannelsince '87 which would come in around 370 at a normal angle of acceleration into Spring.

Hope I've made some sense. A longterm chart is needed to follow this.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:10 - ID#26793)
Output from Irish mine first in 200 years; to be marketed as "Irish Gold"

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:13 - ID#344286)
Area Play-Carlin Trend type deposits

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:13 - ID#348257)
when Irish gold is smilin'...

hey, did you smell the coals from my barbecuing steaks across the sound tonite?

Try to keep cool, Bro.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:15 - ID#411259)
..... Does Anybody Remember The Archies? .....

Sung to the tune of, "Sugar, Sugar'

Gunnydo do do do doo do
Hey Gunny, Gunnydo do do do doo do
You are a Gunny girl
Alone in your Gunny world

Dada da dum

Oh, Gunnydo do do do doo do
Awe Gunny, Gunnydo do do do doo do
Put all those guns away
And you'll live to another day

Dum dum de dum, hey!

Once there was a time when people just ignored you
But now they think you're pretty sad
So you just sit alone and in the deepest dark
Hugging your guns and looking so maaaad. Oho

Gunnydo do do do doo do
Yeah Gunny, Gunnydo do do do doo do
Why don't you give it a rest?
Or do you want the real big test?

Gunnydo do do do doo do
Yeah Gunny, Gunnydo do do do doo do
You aren't to dumb to try
But you just sit alone and cry


A special remake of, "Back in the Saddle"


(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:18 - ID#26793)
@Mike Sheller
Was that from yours? Can't remember a better day for a December BBQ.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:20 - ID#284255)
I'd guess that the spin on the Galaxy 5 satellite was a net rumour.
It seems that they are rife at the moment.

Loiuse is out the back working out on her body beautiful.
Yet to flex her muscles.

Thelma looks like a humdinger yet to impact.
Rumours around that she packs more punch than Tracy did.

Water temps off the Great Barrier Reef are currently hotter than ever.
And the cyclone season hasn't even started.

Normally the first cyclone comes around Xmas, and here we've had two in the first week of Dec.

Expectations are for 2 to 3 times the normal number of cyclones and they're expected to be of a far more powerfull size than normal.

Will WA go under water like last time?

I'd guess that Qld is going to see a couple of beauties this time round.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:23 - ID#252391)
Gold up to its downtrend line
The jump in NY Gold at the opening took it up to a short term downtrend line which turned it back. A further 50 cent erosion is under way in Asia. I suspect we'll find that today's action was on short covering. A close above today's high will ignite my buying after burners. Barring that kind of move, the $285-$290 area looks to be the area into which to accumulate during the middle of December.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:26 - ID#20359)
sharefin, Namaste' gulp and a puff...good gravy man...when you boys down under
have a storm its a dooooooooozy...that thing is HUGE...good luck and God Bless...yikes!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:27 - ID#284255)
Here's a chart supplied by RJ


(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:29 - ID#317211)
@Skip - must agree with glenn
If you have hundreds,
rather than thousands,
then goldshares aren't
the place to be.

But maybe a shotgun,
when times get rough,
will get you some gold
from me.

sigh ( : ( ( Hang tough. Family always comes first.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:40 - ID#335190)
Rubin @ Shift away from worry about INFLATION & Concern about weakening GROWTH = DEPRESSION ???
December 7, 1998

FOCUS-Treasury's Rubin denies he plans to resign

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin Monday firmly denied reports he planned to resign.

Responding to reporters' questions before he addressed the National Foreign Trade Council in New York, Rubin called the reports "totally, absolutely, 100 percent erroneous."

In his speech to the trade council, Rubin warned Americans not to turn their backs on the world economy precisely when their involvement in global economic affairs was needed most.

He reiterated previous warnings that it would take much time and effort to restore stability and growth in the battered world economy. But he also noted there had been "a number of significant positive developments over the last few months."

Rubin mentioned efforts to clean up Japan's debt-ridden banks, recent U.S. Congressional approval to beef up the resources of the International Monetary Fund, and a shift in policy among developed nations away from worrying about inflation toward concern over weakening growth as steps in the right direction.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:42 - ID#252391)
Strong buy recommendation on FLC

Oil service sector may have - rather has bottomed ( again ) according to this chartist....

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:45 - ID#252391)
Who knows the significance of a "doji candlestick"

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:51 - ID#335190)
"The Crisis of Global Capitalism." @ Soros
December 7, 1998

Clinton names Hawke, Geithner to top Treasury posts

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - President Bill Clinton named three officials to key positions at the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday in recess appointments that temporarily escape the need for confirmation by the Senate, the White House said.

Clinton named John Hawke as comptroller of the currency and Timothy Geithner and Edwin Truman respectively as under secretary and assistant secretary for international affairs at the Treasury Department.

The White House said Clinton would resubmit the nominations when the 106th Congress convenes.

December 7, 1998

Soros says he doesn't need any more money

"I currently actually spend more on philanthropy than I'm earning because I've accumulated a certain amount of capital and I've no intention of taking it with me."

Soros was in London to promote his new book, "The Crisis of Global Capitalism."

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:53 - ID#43460)
Skip, I don't give investment advice.
But for me I only "invest" money I don't need and could fully live without. Sure, I have some gold stocks, but each one was bought with money I would have never missed had I gone out in the backyard and burned it. Sure, I have more than the recommended 10% max now in them, maybe 5% more, and have lost money all year in it but it is all money I could burn and not miss. No grocery money and no money for the kids education, no penny stocks and no leverage. And sure I have some physical silver, but I can melt it and cast it into something whimsical and use it for a paperweight.

Any more than this and I think that a guy should take his soul out and hold it up to the light and look at it. Here is an URL you can do with what you want. BTW, if there is any advice to be found in this note I think you should listen to your wife and not this bunch of ( myself included ) dreamers.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:54 - ID#317211)
@ 6pak: Rubin says "Don't turn our backs" on IMF, Japan"?
As in let's give them some of our tax $.
Won't turn my back to Rubin, ever!

I'd get backshot.

Yup, in a heartbeat.

Lurker 777
(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:54 - ID#317247)
Once in a lifetime!
RJ: WOW Gold under spot!!!!!! Is there a limit$$? Are they .999 bars?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:55 - ID#317193)
RJ....w/out permission....
Your post was not adds elsewhere...Yes.

We watch this old gold market together.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:58 - ID#431200)
TKinross Gold writes off $216 million
TORONTO ( CP ) -- Kinross Gold Corp. is taking a charge of $216.1 million US against fourth-quarter results. The writedown follows "a careful review of the carrying values of certain assets in the continuing low gold price environment," the company said in a news release late Monday. "The writedown consists of $104.6 million of excess costs resulting from the merger with Amax Gold Inc., $46.9 million on the historical carrying value of the Refugio mine, $40.5 million on the historical carrying value of the Fort Knox mine and the balance on other non-core assets." Kinross said its accountants are working on the assumption of a gold price of $325 US an ounce -- more than $30 above the spot-price close Monday in New York.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 21:58 - ID#411259)
..... I have spoken to people who have spoken to Gunny .....

Or have received correspondence from him
And the universal word that always seems to surface regarding him

Is, "Nut"

As in, "this guy is a."

The moral of the story is therefore and thusly so:

You can lead a mule to water
But you can't make the poor, sterile, impotent, dull witted beast
To do anything but stare at its own insipidly bland brow
And wonder just what the hell was he supposed to do
And who is that ugly mule looking up at me from in the pond?

Mules and Clues

Got one, you still need a few of the other, yes?


Call me Muleskinner

Remember, "Little Big Man"?

Remember what he told Custer, General George A.?
When asked if he should go into the Little Big Horn
He asked the Muleskinner's opinion
And the Muleskinner had the truth
And chose to tell the Great General that truth
With a swooping wave of the hand,
And a serious squint in the eye, he declared,
"You go down, General."

"Are you telling me there are no Indians down there, Muleskinner?"

"No General They's thousands of Indians down there. And not just womin and childrin like at the Washita  Them's Cheyenne Brave and Sioux and they will cut you to bits. No you go down there General. You go down there, if you've got the guts"

"Still trying to trick me, eh, Muleskinner? You want me to think you don't want me to go down there, when, in reality You really DON'T want me to go down there. Ah Ha! I can read you like a book Muleskinner, you are a perfect reverse barometer. Ooooooh, I'll go down there and today will be a great victory!"

Nervous mummers from the collected Calvary troops as their horses fidget.

They then went down there
What happened next, Gunster?
Blam powey boom cut rip & tear
It was not pretty as golden grass turned red
And, that day, every white man died
Because of the arrogant General Gunster
All for want of taking good advice

Oooops, I made a mistake.. Custer

You go down there, yes?

O Yes

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:01 - ID#317193)
You need to talk to some "other" folk...enough!


(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:02 - ID#317193)
bbl...just in case I get a self-serving response...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:02 - ID#317211)
@RJ: Great Americana music. "Well I'm an ol' muleskinner..."

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:07 - ID#254321)
Hot from Matt Drudge!
All: Matt Drudge makes comment that the White House lawyers are under the assumption that a sealed criminal indictment has been delivered! If this is so -- why are they acting so combatively? Interesting rumor nonetheless, and many of Matt Drudge's rumors turn out to be fact.

I wonder -- if I were aware of a criminal indictment against me, I would be trying to make a secret agreement with the opposition, not fighting tooth and nail, as WJC's lawyers seem to be doing.

Janet Reno again refused appointing independent counsel to investigate WJC's campaigning activities, and the CIA ( ? ) , FBI again expressed their desire for independent counsel investigation. The smoke seems to be getting thicker. Perhaps WJC's teflon coat is wearing thin. Since the majority of the American public no longer think much of WJC, but do not want to impeach him because the economy is doing well, all that is necessary is for the markets to head south for a time, and the public will be after him.

I guess we ( collectively ) get what we deserve.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:08 - ID#238275)
hey may be right, but
watch the movie "the treasure of the Sierra Madre" with humprey bogart. a conspiracy as grand as you say will undoubtedly have leaks or folks who jump the gun due to greed. you can only hush a baby so long before it begins to cry at the top of its lungs. gold is being hushed by the momma central banks and by the hedge fund daycare centers. that kid is gonna start wailing any minute.

the world is a smaller place, its hard to hide.

***for the gentleman who lost his fortune, buy some physical here and there and hunker down. look forward and have faith in yourself, you have lost but you are not defeated. a few coins may be enough to put you head and shoulders above the crowd.***

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:10 - ID#20359)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I have said it before and I will say it again...
I do NOT trust the polls...I think the vast majority of Americans loathe Clintler...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:12 - ID#223299)
doji candlestick

( jims ) you'll find the definition at Sorry I
could not hot link it for you.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:14 - ID#231337)
Gagnard .... re that Jr

November 26, 1998



Madison Enterprises Corp. ( "Madison" ) Madison Enterprises Corp. ( "Madison" ) is pleased

to announce an initial resource estimate for the Mt. Kare gold deposit in Papua New Guinea in

which Madison holds a 65% interest.

Madison contracted the engineering firm of Watts, Griffis & McOuat ( WGM ) to carry-out an

independent resource estimate for the project which incorporates all data available as of

September 10, 1998. Included in WGM's resource estimate were the 32 drill holes completed

by CRA and holes 1 thru 108 and 110 completed by Madison. Assays for holes drilled

subsequently, holes 135 and 136 are in progress, are expected to be released in the near future.

WGM completed a mineral resources estimate using 3-D block modeling. In addition, WGM

completed a project audit. Based on WGM's estimate of the resources in the area drilled to date,

the Mt. Kare property has the following contained ounces of gold equivalent:

Calculation of Contained Gold Equivalent

Total of Indicated and Inferred Resources

Resource without Grade


Resources with Au Grade

Cut to 30 g/t

1.0 g/t Au Cut-off

4.0 Million ounces

1.87 Million ounces

( 124.4 Million grams )

( 58.3 Million grams )

1.5 g/t Au Cut-off

3.80 Million ounces

1.64 Million ounces

( 118.1 Million grams )

( 51.1 Million grams )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:15 - ID#20359)
and the beat goes on and on...what the heck...lets sacrifice the whole country for Clintler's sake..

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:16 - ID#147201)
Snowbird re casting
Many thanx for this reference. I'll check it out. Let you know, Charlie

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:18 - ID#188420)
Nature's Time site has a constructive view/chart/count of the XAU.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:21 - ID#411259)
..... TYoung .....

Much bandwidth is spent hereabouts by shoppers of gold. Scores of posts discuss the best prices and the best people to buy from. In all these discussions, never. not one time.. did anyone claim they could buy it under spot. Several points above spot maybe ( apart from Gunny's dimwitted math.. "save ten dollars on ten ounces. I wonder where he buys his gold at spot? ) but never at or below.

I work for the oldest and most respected bullion dealer in the country. My company believes that everyone should own physical gold and, for thirty one years, has put more of it in the hands of the common man - not the bankers and fat cats - than anyone else. This should be considered a noble deed in the eyes of all goldbugs, yes?

Now I am told I can sell gold and silver below spot.
I am a longtime active member of this forum
Should I hold my tongue and keep my secret
As I scroll past scores of posts asking where and how much?

I do not peddle here, nor solicit a thing.

If that were the case, my time is ill spent
Our phone rings a few hundred times a day
All I have to do is pick it up, and a buyer awaits
More so these days than in many many years
A lot less work than these thousands and thousands and thousands of words, no?

So what is the solution?
Keep quiet?
Let people know on some obscure page?

Or tastefully announce the deal
And invite those who wish
To discuss the rest off this site
By e-mailing me at

Which is the proper course?
Have I not earned a voice here?
Can I not use it on rare occasion?
To give the folks on this site
Exactly what they want most
And spend many thousands of words discussing?

What would you do?

( I know you have never been fond of me, but be fair )


(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:23 - ID#341231)
mooney's 18:26 and other references to POG manipulation
Could it be that at present the POG is fairly steady ( in US$ ) because gold, being the true money, does not suffer the same statistical variances that other commodities and "assets" do, such as stocks. Since over the last 27 years the US$ has become the "other" world money - it would seem reasonable that for this brief time period, 1998 as the US$ is peaking, the two moneys' move in stable lock step. All "flight to safety" activity to the US$ should have occured by now, and the next flight away from the US$ is not yet started. Admittedly there are reasons to believe that POG is being controlled before the arrival of the Euro, or to maintain the status of the US$, but it could also be that Asian and middle east purchasers are providing a floor price, and producers such as the Australians are providing a cap. Hence POG is stable, since there is no reason for the US$ to rise further, but since there is also no reason for the US$ to drop, gold does not yet rise relative to the US$.
I don't think I've expessed this the way I see it. Will try to refine and express this better.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:28 - ID#249244)
RJ, I'm very curious...
Why do you have gold for sale $1 below spot price?...and
no commission..? End of the year? Still, why is this charity?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:31 - ID#224230)
@RJ - your post
Your post concerns GOLD, and makes other visitors to this forum aware of a specific buying opportunity for GOLD. Unless I'm missing the point of coming here, it couldn't be MORE on topic. Thanks.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:33 - ID#258269)
Symbol for RANYD has been changed back to RANGY. Now if we
could get the price back!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:35 - ID#317193) offense...
but promo is promo and if you can not discern the difference all hope for you is lost. Rationalize if you must. Selling is selling.

Shall Tort and I post rates for wills and trusts if one is $2 below the other? A service to the folk? Enough of promo.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:37 - ID#254321)
Opinions about the gold markets
RJ, All: I think we can agree that the long term gold bear is over, barring any new 'gold fire sales'.

RJ: What do you think about the Russian, South American situation as it relates to gold? Are the floor traders buying gold yet with both hands? Or -- are they waiting for a repeat of Oct 97 before they jump in?

I am not going to give up on gold -- ever. But I do want to be on the right side of a financial collapse -- if it comes. Buying on dips and selling on rallies seems to me a better way to go until all the deflationary financial collapses are behind us. Inflation is just a glimmer in the tunnel right now.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:38 - ID#257150)

I am at work, did you email me? I'll be checking in about 1 hour, then shall email you the Roy Jastram analysis of gold in deflation, as requested.

RJ's offer of a buck under spot...someone remind me what happens in deflation again...ALL commodities fall in price....

Fire Sale on gold?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:44 - ID#249244)
RJ, I'm getting suspicious and....
Sorry, man, it looks real strange now....sell gold
at discount and "gold will rise in 1999" forecast...
ANOTHER opportunity? What am I missing here...?

Please explain.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:44 - ID#43460)
ORC A thanks
Methinks there will be a lot of gold yet to come out of that part of the world. I wonder what is the absolute lowest production cost they can tolerate?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:45 - ID#227238)
Recognise the position of our host. Common courtesy would indicate a need to avoid even the hint of commercial boosterism at his expense. IMO.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:48 - ID#254321)
Gold: One dollar under spot
Aurator: Monex will still lose money on the deal, even if gold goes down later. This seems to be a promotional thing to me -- it would be interesting to ask how much Monex has advertised this.

If Monex can stimulate more buyers of gold bullion, we all benefit in the long term -- not just Monex. Right, RJ?

I think the key to our gold up/down debate is whether we are about to have another 'gold fire sale'. I think so, even if the technical indicators suggest otherwise. I don't think technical analysis is much good in this situation, until very close to the time of the fire sale. Then a massive sale of gold knocks the stuffing out of the gold market.

Personally, I don't think gold can go down much more, but gold equities could develop another 'v-formation' Perfect time to enter the market again if it happens. Right now I am only 10% in gold equities, 10% defense stocks, rest cash.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:48 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Mike Sheller -- I like your 21:09. I think the biggest thing that bothers me about it at this time is gold being sold for a buck under spot I here. Sounds like a clearance sale! I know there can be numerous reasons for such, but it still is 'bothersome', when one is looking for a bottom. Still, being a trader for the most part, it doesn't affect me except for asking 'why'? I've had the feeling for awhile that a lot of vendors have been liquidating the stuff. I will NOT claim that this is a fact! Just a feeling; Just a buzzing on the brain. Nothing I need base trading upon. But IF I were to be a much longer term investor, I might like some damn answers! Baring all that, I kinda' like your 21:09...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:49 - ID#411259)
..... TYoung .....

The company I work for
Is a paying sponsor of this site
This is not inappropriate
You did not tell me what you would do.
Speak or be silent? Which is best?

We will watch this gold market together, yes?

Righty O

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:50 - ID#45173)
Two possible explanations for the below spot offer. Either your company is willing to lose money to get new customers, not likely in the current market from coins, or your company bought well below the current spot, say, when gold was under $290.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:51 - ID#219363)
Thanks for posting that, I think it's good for everybody to see that the faces behind the names are actual people risking actual money. Sad to hear you've lost so much, and I feel for you. I suspect there are a lot of goldbugs about who are feeling the pain too, I hope not too many or to such an extent. Gold has been a bitch, no other way to say it. Just when you think it can't get any worse, it crashes again. I won't give investment advice to you as I'm sure you've learned a lot already, how's that quote go, "That which does not kill us makes us stronger" ? We've all been there, at least anyone who has any real character, maybe not investing, but we've all been there. I'm not much on that "untested virtue" that you see posting sometimes, and when it finally gets so bad that you crash, hit rock bottom, well, that's when we can let it go and see the sun shine again. It never looks so bad on the other side and you end up with this nifty wisdom that kinda makes you sparkle a little bit, puts a little bounce in your step. My father wasn't so smart because he made all the right moves, that's for damn sure. I doubt any of this helps. I think the worst thing about "investing", that is, buying stocks and bonds and such, is that they are passive instruments. What I mean is, no matter how much we want something, we can't change the course of a passive investment, it's just going to do what it wants to do, rise when it wants to rise, fall when it wants to fall. There isn't anything you can do to affect it, and it's that very feeling of being powerless that crushes people when the market moves against them. At least if a business person starts having trouble, he can alter the course of his investment, little more effort here or there, spend a little money on this or that, and he can turn it around. A goldbug is powerless to turn a gold stock around. The eastern folks say that suffering comes from "want", and I believe it. If you just wander around the earth not wanting anything but a new day and a meal, hell, you're the happiest sap the world has ever seen. But as soon as you want something, your mind bends in that direction, and there is loss when you don't get what you want. Investors in passive instruments are doomed to feel horrible if they "want" their investments to gain value, because it's completely out of their hands. Don't listen to me though, I'm young and still learning the ropes, fair amount of untested virtue there ( though I've certainly had more than my fair share of bad times ) . The bull helps us get what we want, the Bear helps us want what we get. Just let it go, man, center yourself, and feel the flame. Rise like the Phoenix from the ashes my friend, rise like the Phoenix, and that goes for all the other folks who might be feeling the pain.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:51 - ID#254321)
Aurator: My assumption is that Monex has no significant gold bullion stores in their warehouse. If they are not buying on the spot market, my last post is incorrect.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:55 - ID#317193) for your add...don't do a
golden eagle...

Gold for $1 under spot for only new customers...come now, if that ain't promo then I'll eat my hat. Bash gunrunner if you must but guess what...he was correct. Your selling here with your post; not being informative.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:56 - ID#249244)
Brother RJ, I figured it all not need explaining.
Disregard my previous posts.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 22:58 - ID#249244)
EJ, the third reason - guys need cash...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:03 - ID#173274)
@the scene
My appologies if my thoughts seem to step on whatever 'actuality' prevails. It's just that usually, when something seems too good to be true, it generally has a reason to be so. Just slap me up the side of the head for being so distrustful. Only that being so has saved me a hell of a lot more money than being otherwise... I am no further along in being able to answer what the Monex offer means for the POG. Only that at this time, it saves you a buck per ounce.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:04 - ID#20359)

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:07 - ID#45173)
Yours is a heartbreaking story. I'm sorry you lost your money on your speculative bets. In spite of our rhetoric here, gold is a commodity -- with some unique characteristics due to its history as a monetary asset -- and speculating in commodities is risky. While I have stayed out of the gold market but got in recently because the risk premium on gold looks to be the inverse of stocks right now. But maybe I'm wrong and the stock market goes to 20,000 and gold to $200. In any case, I don't keep all my eggs in the gold basket, or any one basket.

The next time around, once you get some money together, I suggest you invest it conservatively and shoot for staying ahead of inflation. If you read no other investment book, read Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Best to you.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:09 - ID#45173)
Can you say, "spif"?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:12 - ID#20359)
Human Rights...No rights...executed for what their government does
on a full time basis...interesting to say the least...great tourist spot...NOT...

China executed more people last year than the rest of the world combined, according to human rights group Amnesty International. Most executions are carried out with a single bullet to the back of the head.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:12 - ID#210114)
IMF Gold rhody
Sorry rhody. IMF has about 3000 tonnes of gold.

rhody ( RUMORS OF IMF GOLD SALES: Last time I looked, the IMF ) ID#411440:
Copyright  1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
had about 15.8 million oz or approx. $4.6 billion in gold.
If they dumped all of this gold on the spot market, it would
not make up the 800 tons or so of supply demand deficit in
the world gold market.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. They can use the IMF gold to
extend the artificial over supply once leasing ends. I shall
leave someone else to do the calculations as I must run to work.

Seems to me, the world gold market will run through that IMF
hoard in about a month and a half, if it's fed in at a rate
to just balance supply and demand. Is this right?

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:15 - ID#374179)
times are achangin
canadian fed govt posts $800 million defecit for oct.......

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:15 - ID#173274)
@the scene
tolerant -- Probably about the easiest way to go outside of going in your sleep. Except that I'd rather be shooting back!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:16 - ID#432130)
@Envy 22:51...
...Buddha sat under a tree for 3 years trying to figure out what you understand : )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:18 - ID#249244)
I can certainly say that, but I do not know what it
means, seriously...English is my second language...

Selling gold at discount for promotion is like selling
gasoline for promotion...possible but stupid... Probably,
folks at Monex, who are not stupid, just need some cash
ASAP to cover our brother RJ admitted,
from time to time some bets were not very profitable...
just my speculation.

THE Priest
(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:20 - ID#369333)
Really Now
is this the right discussion group here the analysis and investors
the posting tonight are very irritating

i think censure be imposed on some of you

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:24 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Oh yea -- I almost forgot. I expect that this particular move in gold will be worth a few few dollars more.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:27 - ID#210114)
rhody: Greenspan and Interest rates

Monday December 7 7:07 PM ET

Ex-Fed Gov. Says Greenspan Wary Of Financial

By Isabelle Clary

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is troubled by his current
dilemma of trying to keep the U.S. economy growing without contributing to a ``bubble'' in which
U.S. stocks and other financial assets may be dangerously inflated, former Fed Gov. Lawrence
Lindsey said Monday.

``I don't think Alan is happy,'' Lindsey told an audience of economists and bankers at the Harvard
Club where he presented his latest book, ``Economic Puppetmasters, Lessons from the Halls of

Lindsey said Greenspan sees some eerie similarities between the current economic climate and the
situation that existed in the years before the stock market crash of 1929 that triggered the Great

But Greenspan remains optimistic a Depression is not in the cards today because policy makers are
better informed than Fed officials were in the 1930s when they underestimated the magnitude of the
problems America was facing.

``If actions in 1930 and 1931 were taken differently, we might have had a fairly significant
recession, but we would not have had the deep fall that we know as the Great Depression,''
Greenspan told Lindsey.

Lindsey, a former Fed governor who served on the Fed Board between November 1991 and
February 1997, said the Fed's more relaxed monetary policy during recent years has ``created a
financial asset bubble.''

Such bubbles can form when interest rates are low and financial institutions eager to lend. Investors
can then end up with plenty of funds to buy financial assets, such as stocks. This can drive prices of
the assets higher than would normally be justified by the likely returns on those investments.

This situation, Lindsey said, could hurt the U.S. economy if the bubble bursts or consumer price
inflation begins to accelerate as a result.

``Greenspan sits on the horn of a dilemma. The dilemma is not to let the bubble get out of hands
and, at the same time, let the world go ahead,'' said Lindsey while explaining the difficulty of
conducting U.S. monetary policy while other nations are suffering from economic crises.

``If Greenspan does both, he deserves the beatification he is getting,'' added Lindsey who served as
Fed Board Governor under Greenspan from November 1991 to February 1997.

Lindsey's book details the complexity of a central banker's task of creating the best possible
conditions for an economy to expand as fast as it can without risking a speedup in consumer price

``What scares me the most is that the only thing we're counting on for the world to get out of this
( crisis ) is for the American consumer to keep on buying and, for this, to have the value of their
( financial ) portfolios get bigger and the bubble go on,'' Lindsey cautioned.

The Fed cut interest rates three times between late September and mid-November to protect U.S.
financial markets from the contagion effect of overseas turmoil which could, in turn, dampen the

Greenspan shared the same concern about a possible bubble in U.S. stock prices, and told Lindsey
in a private meeting in mid-April he saw ``all sorts of parallels to the late 1920s,'' but did not think
``that even if you get to a 1929'' U.S. stock market crash, ``you'll end up with a 1932'' Great

``There is a fundamental problem with market intervention to prick a bubble,'' Greenspan told
Lindsey. ``It presumes that you know more than the market. There is also a problem of timing.''

Lindsey, who now is an economist at a private think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute, and at
his own advisory firm, Economic Strategies, agreed we may ``not have the 1930s again. But to say
we are not going to have problems in our financial markets, that's irrational exuberance.''

Greenspan used the term ``irrational exuberance'' in his notorious stock market remark of
December 1996 when he warned that equity prices may be inflated. At the time, the Dow Jones
industrial average stood at 6500, much lower than its current level. The index recently climbed to a
high of 9380.

Japan remains a sore spot on the world economic horizon, according to Lindsey who described the
country as ``a very depressed place ... that really needs some Prozac.'' He did not expect the
Japanese economy to really turn around for another 18 months.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:29 - ID#411259)
..... OK..... OK..... OK ......

Everyone here knows my views about gold.
I think there is too damn much of it in the world.
Everyone has seen me berate the golden lass for the last two years.
By and large, she has done exactly as I have said she would.
I told folks six months ago that the lows would hold
And gold would be sideways to down for the rest of the year
In that same time period, I began my public pronouncements
That I think all is in place and the bear will die in early 1999
What with this whole y2k thingy and the eurodollar and all
Folks might be wise to start taking delivery of gold
And buy themselves some protection from sudden storms

Now my company tells me I can sell it below spot.
Don't ask me why, I don't know why. This is new to me too.
These decisions are made at meetings I am not invited to
I am a lowly broker, humble and pure, a simple gateway to gold.

I am, as always, simply reporting what is.
I don't make these things so.
I don't make gold go down
I don't make it go up
I just grab the ride

And hold on, methinks it will be a fun ride.

OK OK. OK. ( Think Joe Pesci in "Lethal Weapon" )

What will gold do? Huh? Just what will it do? Lay there? Fall into a coma? Spring to life? Explode like one of those fire hoses when Bluto steps on it just to screw Popeye over and impress Olive Oil, and before Popeye gets himself some spinach?

Look at it this way.
Buy some gold and get it in you hands for $300 or less, total delivered cost.
Gold moves to a pretty bland and comfortable $350 to $380 by next June.
You own the gold, you posses it, there are no costs to hold it yourself.
You now have a 16% to 26% net profit in six months.

OK OK. OK.

Gold goes to $400 33%. $440.. 46% $480 60%

This is not using leverage
This is buying and holding
This is not turning the world on fire
But these are damn good returns
For the safest ( currently, I believe ) investment on earth. No?
While the rest of the world watches and worries manifest into bummers
And stocks slide the big slide, y2k meanderings, and religious fever
It really really would be good to hold some gold, I'm thinkin'

Gold has been a horrible investment for the last 20 years.

It may well be the best investment for the next 2 years.

I'll let you know in 2000 whether I think it will keep going
Or go splat in a yellow puddle of insignificance.

I'm betting that people's worries alone will cause gold to rise to a modest $350 -$380 . by June.. True trouble would propel it ever so much higher, but $380 is OK with me.

This is not a new opinion for me.
Back when gold was crawling on its belly in the 270s, I was quite vocal that all should grab it while they could. The $250 crowd had folks worried and a lot of them waited. I delivered many thousands of osers-o-golden coins into folks hands for less than $300.

I can't do that now with coins, they are about $14 over spot, mucho demand and all

But I may be able to do it with JM or Engelhard 10 ounce bars.

Them bars is reeeeeel perty.


(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:29 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Anybody out there ever read James P. Hogans's 'Vogage From Yesteryear'? Now there's a concept or two!!!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:32 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Anybody out there understand the potential ( no pun intended ) of Faradays Ice pail experiment? Perhaps you might re-review it! Then, review it again!

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:32 - ID#374179)
but the upside they say......we are stil running a large surplus year to year.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:35 - ID#411259)
..... Tovarish Oris .....

Unfair indeedy.

The company is having the best year in a decade.
This is a one shot deal, I expect folks who are happy
Would go to the same place to reorder, yes?
The price would not be as low, but lower than anywhere else
So still way fair and trustworthy and now we are all friends

Why do folks read machinations into things?

The offer is as it stands.

I did not make it, but I will use it


(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:39 - ID#374179)
could it pssibly BE that canadian paper is on the verge of experiencing higher interest rates SOON......

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:41 - ID#233199)
How many ounces in a TONNE...
...of Gold ( not feathers )

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:42 - ID#317193)
The End...good nite...
Brother oris thanks market...yes


(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:44 - ID#249244)
RJ, if you do not know, who knows?
Thank you very much for your reply...but I'm very upset
with Monex management, those guys who did not invite
you to their meeting...I understand...I wish you and Monex
best of luck and success, will drink a shot of Napoleon for
it right now...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Spock -- Disinformation. That's all that article was...

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:48 - ID#428232)

32 154 oz in a tonne

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:48 - ID#249244)
RJ, I do not mean to be unfair, you know...
It is just looks so strange...but I know it is all honest
game, just kind of not really profitable, yes?...

O'key, everything is cool...

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:50 - ID#20359) sleep better at night in a world gone mad...ya gotta love it...Clintler...what a guy..

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:51 - ID#428232)
RJ (..... OK..... OK..... OK ......)

Not enough in the world..........tut, tut......

Yes, there is NOT enough GOLD in the world..........

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:51 - ID#249244)
Good night, brother Tom...
do not forget to engage safety...dah.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:51 - ID#411259)
..... Goodnight .....

The company I work for made a decision
The type of decision that folks on this page are interested in
I posted the results and asked folks to talk about it off this page
My company does pay to advertise with Kitco
As many here know who have clicked on our banner
I believed this would be of interest to many

That's all

I will be gone for a time in penance, yes?

Read Investors Business Daily
The Below spot ads are running now


(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:52 - ID#173274)
@the scene
You all have a profitable day tomorrrow. Goodnight..., unless I should show up again.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:52 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now......
Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:53 - ID#20359)
now they are UN-Canadian...what is the world coming to...???

Lurker 777
(Mon Dec 07 1998 23:55 - ID#317247)
I am not trying to be mean spirited and am sorry for any goldbugs losses BUT no more excuses! I have been posting this system since last December and no one should be loosing more than 5% of you hard earned money investing in Gold. I have covered my ASSests and best of all I take POSSESSION of the Gold. I am sure there are countless numbers of Lurkers ( like myself ) out there wanting to get involved in buying gold but are concerned about the horrific bear market we have witnessed over the last 3 years. The most pressing question is wheres the bottom? Because no one can guarantee me how low can we go SO I like to cover my bets. Because of the absence of detailed investment opinions with limited risk on the purchase of Bullion coins I offer you following information at your own risk.
IMVHO - If you have at least $35,000. to invest in gold bullion. Buy 100 Austrain Philharmonic 999.9% pure 1 oz. gold coins and a COMEX Put option ( 100 oz. ) to cover your ASSets. One Put option will pay you $100. for every $1. gold goes below the strike price plus any built in premium.
1 ) You will need to open a account with a discount futures broker for around $2,500. This can be done over your fax and the money can be wired from your bank in one day. Then you will need to send them the original forms overnight ( They Pay ) .
2 ) You will need to purchase coins from a reputable dealer because they will hold your funds for up to three weeks before sending your coins to you.
Example at today's spot prices ( $295.00 ) :
A. Buy 100 Philharmonic coins ( 4.7%over spot ) for $30,886.50 or $308.87 per oz.
B. Buy one December 1999 290 put ( 100 oz. contract ) for $670. . Quotes at:
( )

Total cost per coin with Put option is $315.57 each. If Gold drops below $290 per oz. you can sell your coins for 3.3% over spot to dealers and your downside risk is around 5%. Gold has to be higher than $315.57 to make money but you have until the second week of November 1999 until the Put option expires!

The best Bullion Coin: The Austrian Philharmoiker one oz. 999.9% pure Gold coins have the highest monetary face value of any Gold bullion coin ( 2000 Shilling or $170.00+-U.S. ) and are Guaranteed by the Austrian government. AND as a added bonus, if the Gold price were to collapse the coins could be redeemed for their face value. Here is an e-mail I received from the mint:
The Vienna Philharmonic coin is a coin of Austria and as such is legal tender in Austria. Its face value is guaranteed by the Central Bank of Austria. In the unlikely event that gold fell below the equivalent of 2000 schillings per ounce, its face value would be greater than its gold bullion value. Under such circumstances gold bullion coin dealers would base their purchase price on the face value rather than the bullion value. In this manner the face value would serve as a "floor" for the value of the coin.

Kirsten Petersen

Hmmmmmm, BUT now that RJ at has informed us of the SPECIAL deal at Monex your DOWNSIDE RISK IS ONLY 3.6%. It doesn't get any better than this! RJ I want to thank you for your participation at Kitco and hope some here will take advantage of your offer!
I have never heard of anyone selling gold BELOW spot. If I did not know you and Monex I would be suspicious of this offer. But if you said it is so, so be it.