has it going to 180 & the other thinks it may actually strengthen from here. The big problem is that they each make convincing arguements to back up their predictions. If the 180 guy is even 1/2 right, then POG is going nowhere.

My attitude from here on is: don't listen to what they say--watch what they do. The ONLY WAY TO PLAY THESE MKTS IS TO BE A TREND FOLLOWER. Anyone who just followed the trends instead of trying to be clever has made out like a bandit in the equity mkts for many years & that goes for the PM mkts as well.

It may feel good for many of us to think that we're so superior to the "sheeple", but who has made all the money in the last 10 years? Of course, many take comfort in the evangelical certainty that eventually they will be proved correct: the mkt will crash the sheeple will be wiped out & they will be vindicated. It should have happened years ago, but they have kept the game going & there is no way of knowing how much longer they can keep it going.

Having said that I'm short some big techs since 8900, but am no longer shorting on the way up. I'm watching my P&F charts very carefully & will let them tell me what to do.

For T Young
St Helena had a very poor 3rd quarter.. I would not buy more
unless 4th quarter results check out better.
In my opinion .. the best RSA plays now are JCI-gold and
CAM .. because of their western areas holdings .. better
than wes-areas itself as they both trade at a big discount to
NAV.

Do JCI and CAM have ADRs - what are their full names??

No more Sgoly - what happen in their third quarter.

and you may be wrong. A pyramid has many layers from top to bottom with those on the descending pyramid unaware or don't care as long as they're getting their cut of what is going on at the top. It never ceases to amaze me how naive people can be. We all agree ( at least I think we do ) that a privately held CB with the power to create a fractional reserve fiat currency that is manipulated beyond reason to rob people and garner power by the elite is not recognized for what it truly is, a scam of gigantic proportions, and not suspect that something is rotten in Denmark, is tragic.

Why are all of the tax exempt foundations of Rockefeller, Ford, etal funding think tanks and other forces to influence people to meet their agendas of divide and conquer? Why are we constantly fed misinformation by medias that are owned and controlled by a few to further influence us?

Are we all so blind to the fact that we are headed for a one world government engineered by these elitists that have no scruples, ethics or morality and will not stop until their animal instincts to win all is satisfied?

Best regards,

Pete

I'm just learning about technical analysis and I was looking at the gold price chart over at decisionpoint.com. It looks to me that the gold price resistance line just became the suport line in late October. Does anybody concur?

mozel -- Had to get one more in here. Been thinking about that 'article/whatever' I had seen/read. Best I can contribute to the so-called discussion is that perhaps we cannot see, with our eyes, 'photons' of light except that they have been refracted/reflected off of an object first. Given that the article ( or whatever ) I had seen referred to the first astronauts in space, could be that there simply was not enough substance between their eyes and the vacumm of space to contribute enough of that refraction/reflection to occur in order to make enough difference to their perception in regards to the sun and stars. That should be enough to cast me into the abyss of ridicule!! HAR!

"One in five Canadian adults is functionally illiterate."
"Ontario was told its welfare rates are inadequate. The committee called its Act to Prevent Unionization a ``clear violation'' of the U.N. covenant on economic, social and cultural rights."

This is worse than the situation in the former Yugoslavia or in Mogidishu for that matter. And cannot be allowed to go on. There must be a good deal more caring and sharing in British North America.

Gen'ral Disney, are your Tutzi certified for UN duty ?

but I did notice that the Feds confiscated a moon rock which was smuggled into the US...Retail on that bad boy - $5,000,000.00 -

mozel -- HAR!!!

I am selling Kiwis for $1 below spot. In other words I will pay you $1 for each one you take. No commission. You pay freight. Make sure you have a couple of sheep in the back yard to give them something to do. Offer strictly limited as only a couple of million are available. First come, first served. This is not a commercial advertisement. G'day RJ{[:- ) ) .
....................................
Aussie gold shares closed +.37%. Very dull. Normandy up 3 cents to $1.50. Rumour of a Homestake takeover doing the rounds. Normandy a nice target as world's 3rd? biggest producer and $650 m. in kitty after covering forwards.
....................................

All: I think we should all be pleased Monex is running this ad. They are advertizing gold -- the more people that buy gold, the better.

Thanks RJ -- for letting us know.

Buy 100 oz from RJ for $29,400 and one Gold December 1999 310 Put option for $1,540. Total cost $30,940 or $309.40 per oz. The Put option will cover you if Gold goes under $310 oz. and your cost is $309.40. THAT'S NO DOWNSIDE RISK!!!!!! This is good, NO this is very good. YES!

Ridicule from some quarters is better than A Seal of Approval.

"Eugene Cernan, the commander of the Apollo 17 mission, said someone named Rosen contacted him about a year ago, saying he had a genuine moon rock for sale.

"I found it very strange because there isn't anybody who's got a piece of the rock including any of us who went to the moon," Cernan told the news conference by telephone from Houston."

Maybe, "going to the moon" like "sex in the Oval Office" has a different meaning inside government circles than among us civilians.

Doji star-a star indicates a reversal & a Doji indicates indecision. Thus this pattern indicates a reversal following an indecisive period. You should wait for a confirmation ( e.g. ) , as in the evening star, before trading a doji star.

In other words a good buying opportunity may be close, but then again, maybe not.

I gave up on the Jap Candlesticks & now strictly use P&F charts because they eliminate most of the noise.

Let's see. Risk of 20 bucks per ounce AND 1540 bucks for the option into Dec 99. This is Good?

oris, "spif" stands for "Special Price Incentive Fsomethingorother"

You do about as well as I and I grew up speaking ze Inglish.

Lurker777,
Great advice.
-EJ

mozel: Do you think we Americans are any better than our neighbors on our northern border?

Talk about being functionally illiterate!

We elected WJC.

QED

The sale of moon rock is not illegal. Customs agents seized it because it wasn't declared when it was brought into the country, and they said they would return it to the Honduran government.

http://cnn.com/US/9812/07/moon.rock/index.html

mozel -- Moon rocks. Hell, I'm still wondering how the hell they managed to fit their fat-ass suits out of the moon lander hatch! Also wondering what happened to the moon lander motor. Also wondering what happened to the moon landing dust. Also wondering ....................

Discussion and investment on the fundlementals has to have a place, but frankly that hasn't worked in the controlled environment of the precious metals - trend following down has.

Only in the last year have I learned of the extent and means of the manipulation by the CABAL. Now, the great seeers of this community are trying to convince one another and me and you how and when the manipulation will end - they don't know, but we are "getting close". Their arguements sound very reasoned and some will have proven to be at some point in time when gold is up 10% from here, perhaps in the year 2023.

I may be one of Mr HATT's weak knees, but I still have knees and do because I have learned that no matter what my " fundlemental logic and evaluation" tells me, fighting the trend is suicidal. The quickest exit is the best exit. I fight being too slow.

And still there is precious little to indicate a bottom is in in the metals or if there is one that it will produce much of a rally. Who's to say that the stock market just won't slow down it's rate of ascent, correcting its overvaluation in the process. Who is to say the stock market won't stay in a state of overvaluation for decades. Sure, 90% will say it can't happen - yes and that same 90% and 105% of gold bugs didn't think we'd see 5,000, 7,000, 9000, or will see 10,000 DOW.

I watch the trend, signs of reversal and try to guage the strenght of the trends to determine where to go with investment funds. I know I would do alot better if I didn't even know what I was buying - just saw the charts, etc. Its the emotional attachement that eventually costs me money and I fight it all the time.

I think Skip's story is a good leason to all of us . . . there but for the grace of God go I... don't hang on to loosers, ( I have far too long, too often ) , determine what will demonstrate I am wrong about the direction of a market, security, or commodity ( I have fail in this regard too often or ignored myself ) and act accordingly promptly..

AND have subtle knees.......

What am I missing here? What $20 on gold?

You gotta' get NASA to "certify" your rock. Otherwise, it's unauthorized, uncertified fraud.

Did you notice the whole thing started with ads placed in the newspaper by the Customs Service ?

Where have you found point and fiqure charts. I find them the best,too. Won't use much else if I had them. Remember decades ago when gold was actuall in an uptrend keeping my own. Might go back to that using a closing basis.

http://196.33.161.105/new_acquisitions/minorco_announcement.asp

.... and now has a presence in both North and South America. Is the prowling not yet done?

Hey, I didn't write the report. Just passing on the shocking news.

Maybe one of the options traders can throw in his or her 0.02$US, but I think you'll get a better deal if you buy an out of the money PUT option against the gold unless you plan to exercise it. What I mean is, if you're holding the gold at 300$US an oz, and it goes down to 290$US, a 300$US PUT is going to increase in value, but a 280$US PUT is going to multiply a few times. In short, hedge against the gold when you buy the gold, but choose the PUT option based on what it's going to do if gold drops, not based on what it's strike is. There are a lot of ways to play the hedge, you could purchase the gold and the PUT option, then if/when gold drops to whatever, 250$US or whatever you think is near the ultimate bottom, sell the PUT option and just hold the gold. The PUT option would cover your loss on the gold in spades if it was originally out of the money. Cheers.

Lurker 777 -- You're right. Your post is logical, in-so-far as 'logic' in the markets go. But I could foresee the way where you could lose the premium of the option AND see a twenty dollar decline in the price of you 100oz purchase. Perhaps not 'quite' at the same moment, but close enough to essentially amount to be near the same. That time-decay business on the options can simply kill you... Let me add that I'm not saying that would happen, and I haven't analyzed it in detail at this point, and I don't expect that I will any further since I don't play the options games.

JTF -- I didn't help elect him!!! So be careful how you use the term 'we'!

good evening or morning where ever you may be...Namaste'

I have a very low tolerance for risk because I am ALL in and am playing with money I cannot afford to loose. I am holding 290 Put options against $302 gold. My average price is $309.30 oz with Put options and I can sell the Phillies for 3.3% over spot. My downside risk is 3.2%. When Gold goes up next year I plan on adding to my Put options at much lower prices and then will be in a position to make money if gold goes up or down. I truly believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity and have invested accordingly.

Sounds like a pretty smart play.

Gotta read this. Fastest selling book at Amazon.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0895263335/qid=913096757/sr=1-1/002-5720010-7338866

A couple of years ago I read in a militia site ( Bo Gritz I think ) that the Chinese had sold an incredible number of bogus bonds primarily through JP Morgan. Dismissed the matter at the time, but this book has uncovered evidence that this is how the Chinese have financed their covert operations in the US.

http://204.232.40.6/index.html

I see that F* finally threw in the towell.

...eh?

Been trolling the stock market chats. The optimism is unbelievable, espcially for the internet stocks. People are saying AOL wil go to 500!! These folks cannot believe the end is sight in for the bull. I predict mini-crashola with SP500 taking out 1148 by triple witch Friday next week. Me, I'm gonna buy SGOLY 'til I choke on it. 2 3/8, whatta deal!!

"The other thing we have to do is to take seriously the role in this
problem of...older men who prey on underage women... There are
consequences to decisions and...one way or the other, people always wind
up being held accountable."
--Bill Clinton, June 13, 1996, in a speech
endorsing a national effort against teen pregnancy.

"I can tell you that the decisions we made, we made because we thought
they were in the interests of the American people,"
--Bill Clinton, on
being asked why he signed waivers, against the Pentagon's protest, to
sell Loral missile guidance systems technology to Communist China,
enabling China for the first time to launch nuclear weapons. ( May 18,
1998 edition of the Washington Times, front page )

see loral's response.....
http://www.loral.com/china-investigation.html

"I'm just trying to suppress my natural impulses and get back to work."
--Bill Clinton
January 21, 1998 interview with Jim Lehrer on
his alleged affair with a White House intern and subsequent alleged
subornation of her perjury

------------------------------------------------------------


"He who is void of virtuous attachments in private life is, or very soon will
be, void of all regard for his country. There is seldom an instance of a
man guilty of betraying his country, who had not before lost the feeling of
moral obligations in his private connections."

Samuel Adams,
letter to James Warren, Nov. 4, 1775



"The weakling and the coward cannot be saved by honesty alone; but without
honesty, the brave and able man is merely a civic wild beast who
should be hunted down by every lover of righteousness."

Theodore Roosevelt

missed that, The unpronounceable one has thrown in the towel?

Thanks for the lead on the gold charts - haven't quite fiqured them out in terms of the signals and legends offerred - did notice, I think, that they shorted gold at the high today which was a perfect hit - right on the downtrend of the P&F and now I'd reverse, if short, should that high get taken out.

More later,,thanks again, I'm susre FARFEL will be back with his bullish talk very soon.

I can't accept this !! Tell me ain't so, Joe !!

going over my charts & ignored all the analyst/liars & bs on CNBC & was'nt on the net. It's all noise. Like Shakespeare's idiot: "Full of sound & fury, signifying nothing."

I'm going back to my old investment style that made me 120% in 96. Much less time trying to figure out what THEY are saying & more time watching what THEY are doing. More golf & much less wasted time & effort trying to sort through the bs/propaganda & obfuscation. As a matter of fact I'm thinking about disconnecting from the internet.

for short term trading. They have exercises on charting that you can practice. You can register for a free trial.

the opportunity to purchase it inexpensively. Not only that he has given us the benefit of his store of knowledge and close to the source information. Lets get our priorities straight.

it. That I believe would be perfectly legitimate. I would be happy to do the good people of Kitco a service by steering them to good purchases from you or others. That is what this site is about. People helping people.

...farfel throwing in the towel. I would like to ring the gold dust out of it.
..........................
@James--I know what you mean, mate. Too much knowledge can be a dangerous thing. The trick is to ignore what everone else says ( except mois, of course ) and stick to your system. If you invested according to people's moods here at Kitco, you would have whiplash by now!!
..............................
Then again--you can move to an island and build yourself a cabin@where the hell is Teddo??

Gen'ral Mozel Suh..
Mah boys would die foist. They are natchrul bohn rebels..
as long as they git paid ..

for jims ..
Funny thing about St Helena .. like we talk about vaccuums
all the time .. well as best as I can figure .. in the second
quarter the st helena boys use Vacuum cleaners all over their
mills and they sucked up a big bunch of gold dust and had
a bonanza quarter .. in the 3rd quarter they let the
mills come back to "gold dust equilibrium" so to speak ..
and laid off on the old electroluxes .. and their grade
dropped like a stone. The fourth quarter will depend on
if the vaccuum cleaners get the dust out of the old nooks
and cranneys again.

My,my such gloom on the price of gold here at Kitco tonight.

Today's action guarantees that gold has bottomed and at worst is going sideways. It ain't going below 290.

silver has bottomed too. The uptrend that began in 1993 will/has resumed

Bears have put in a poor showing the last couple of weeks especially in gold. Is 8 bucks down the best they can do? Haven't even come close to the Summer lows, and they won't. Very bullish daily chart formation when compared to similar charts. May take a few days until bears see the error of their ways. Bulls don't delay. when that silly downtrend line gets broken all those computers are gonna tell their servants to buy and there won't be much standing in their way.

Gen'ral Disney, Suh, do you think your Tutzi would take forage prize and booty seized and forfeited In The Name Of The Crown as pay for UN enforcement work in British North America ?

Nick@Devilsrighthand
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981207.153836.farfeleee.htm
wherein f* farfs thusly:
Unfortunately, I am now becoming convinced that the paradigm is
shattered owing to the American government's destruction of the
American free market. In fact, more and more, I am coming to
realize that the trajectory for PM's next year is nothing less than
dismal...ALL PM'S. Why?


Time to buy.....

I'd appreciate that Roy Jastram Piece - I'm here at paulw@myself.com. Thanks

There is much wisdom in the f* post. I came to much the same conclusion a while ago. I know that I am trading a rigged market. There is still money to be made selling tulips to newby 'investors'. My fear of a market crash that takes EVERYTHING with it has prompted me to increase my put insurance. Also have reduced debt on real estate etc. to lowest levels in many years. I wanna be a Rocky Feller who buys at distress sales!! Distress sales are coming to a market near you---soon!!

IRA's, you say. Glad you asked. Individual
Retirement Accounts are a form of pension in
the US. If you cash in before age 59, you pay full tax on the amount, plus a 10% penalty. Have decided to cash in a chunk of these funds, pay the fees, and buy some Gold. Will do this January 04, 1999. A hedge against a computer meltdown which could make those electronic entries meaningless.

Could get real interesting, mate, when all the retirees find that their IRAs are paper tigers. Has the gubbmint warned 'investors' that in a market crash there will not be enough paper to go around??? The paper that DOES go around won't be worth much!!

Cheers@IRAs-Ain't-Us.

esoterrorist
check the runes. Jastram arriveth.

Genral Mozel Suh ..
The boys wont touch it wif a
ten foot spear .. They say the
weaver is too unREEliable and
too cold for the ole Tutzies.

Looks interesting. Thanks again.

The mutual funds have notified their investors that they might be redeemed with share certificates in extreme conditions. Most investors don't know that though.

auric
what an arrogant Klintin. I reckon the Ozzies will give that one the finger faster 'n a fly on a turd.

SYDNEY, Dec 8 ( AFP ) - Australia should consider an international plan to
become a dumping ground for the world's nuclear waste, a top adviser to
US President Bill Clinton said Tuesday, drawing immediate protests from
environmentalists.

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a366cde8e76a2.htm

I say, sh!t in your own back yard. It ain't jest environmentalists that want no piece of this one....

To all you newby goldbuggers out there, a lesson in Kitcoese would be in order. Whether you are a Francophile or a Francophobe you must spell moi as mois. What's a month between friends!! Next time you give a speach, you must speek proper like. And don't let noone talk you into otherwise. Those of you whom ( sic ) are loosers should loose your gold shares, even if your going to you're funeral!! Cheers@Ingrish-Ain't-Us.

All we need now is that Peutz call for DOW 10000 by December 31, 1998 and we'll have $420 gold by January 31, 1999.

I know of a big hole where the US can stick its uranium. This will have the added benefit of no more White House press conferences!!

For Monday 7th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR-------------5.59--------------5.25-------------5.09-----------------5.00

Mean GoldLR------4.13---------------4.04-------------3.68-----------------3.41
Gold Lease Rate---1.46---------------1.21-------------1.41-----------------1.59
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.06 ) ------- ( + 0.01 ) ----------- ( - 0.02 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.10--------------3.40-------------2.50-----------------2.20
Silver Lease Rate---1.49--------------1.85--------------2.59-----------------2.80
( Change ) --------- ( - 0.10 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.82-------------4.74---------------4.72---------------4.68
Regards.............Dabchick

How many mutual fund certificates will it take to buy a loaf of bread?? Cheers@Weimar-Germany-R-The-US

Quite Right Jack.

I don't think we'll hear from Peutz again until about July '99. Thereabouts he can swoop in and make perdictions about the forthcoming total eclipse of the sun ( where sun, as every gold bug knows is the astrological symbol for gold ) in August...get in? the Golden Winds, that is Au gust 12. like thin, long & hard ( cruel joke Bart ) says, 12. That's August 12 99 :The Eclipse that'll herald pandemonium. The noise of demons everywhere. What does the herald of pandemonium play?

Nick@LuckyCountry/NuclearTrashPile
Ya gotta love the yanks, eh? Makes ya jest glad you're an ally, I bet. Of course, if you're an enemy, like China, the US will give you technology and weapons. but if you're an ally, you've got to pay for out-dated weaponry, and beg for technology. Not cynical, mois, not cynical at all.

Nick
You missed the grocer's apostrophe. As in:
"How many chartist's does it take to make two Elliot Wave count's?"

Here's ANOTHER, you missed; indeedy.

If we declare war on Amerika,will they send us some missile technology??

Cheers@Enemies-R-Us ( and some Marshall Plan aid as well y'all!! )

...we could sink Greenpeace ships in Auckland Harbour!!!

Nick@Franglais
The day the story broke of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, I said to a dozen colleagues "The French did it." I was ridiculed for jumping to conclusions. I had not a skerrik of evidence that the French gobmint was responsible, save for my gut, the knowledge of intuition. I had spent years in the company of a wonderful French woman, I know of French arrogance and one-eyed patriotism. As soon as I read the news, I knew.

It makes me want to spew. State Sponsored terrorism. The FRench government blew up "The Rainbow Warrior" a Greenpeace vessel that had been protesting the French Nuclear Tests at Muroroa {If the flaming things are safe, why not test them in the Cote de sole?} and was berthed in our beautiful harbour. One man, a photographer in his below-decks darkroom was killed.

There is no gold in this post. Just the perfidy of governments, yours and mine.

And if I were the son of the Portuguese man killed on the Rainbow Warrior by state sponsored terrorism, I would probably be in the Pyrenees doing a Che Guevarra routine. One man's terrorist--another's freedom fighter. And what happened to the murderers?? After a holiday in the South Pacific--they are free as the birds. Justice, French style!!

Nick@Generalissimo_HEIL_////

Brilliant! We'll declare war on yankland: They'll give us Weapons & Technology: Military Advisers & Thinktanks: They'll bail out our banks, and deepen our harbours: They'll build N-Shelters & give our women syphilis, just like last time they were here.

Never can really tell the difference between a merkan ally and a merkan enemy.

OK

_______BIG___@______PRIZES_________

Answer this easy question:

"What's the difference between an ally of America, and an enemy of America?"

{All answers must allude to "gold or golf" to be considered in the draw for the prize )

Nick@Kindheart
Thanks for finishing the story of The Rainbow Warrior. I doubt it was ever mentioned in the US.
away to spin around the dancefloor with a sheepinmydreams

NytolTeddo

...I was busy bashing the French!! One enemy at a time. Now what kind of military secrets are the French going to give us?? The secret to their pate-de-fois-gras??? Hope so, I love the stuff. Yanks will probably send us their politicians on an 'inspection tour' of the defeated enemy. Our loss, their gain!!

...authorized wire taps on Martin Luther King. Wonder how many Kitcoites are under wire taps???

Cheers@Justice-Amerikan-Style.

...sent Martin Luther King wire tap tapes of his 'indiscretions' and told him to commit suicide or he would reveal all to the world.

Chaeers@Justice-Amerikan-Style

It's your legal system that sux.

Hey, the MAN is MUCH more interesting than that. Try this for size:

From Time magazine. 6/17/96 p. 104

refers to "Juanita" a recently discovered Inca mummy
"You know, if I were a single man, I might ask that mummy out. That's a good-looking mummy!"---Bill Clinton

http://www.gargaro.com/clintonquotes.html

And remember, this is the MAN who has the authority to single-handedly ( single finger-edly?! ) unleash the nukes. Oh, well, let the fun begin.

Feb. gold down 40 cents. CRB mostly red. G'nite.

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/europe

Us Yanks love you guys too. And since you can dish it out, it's your work ethic and political system that blows chunks. Seems like eveyone down there wants Big Brother to take care of them. Getting you guys off the dole to do some honest hard work is like takin candy from a baby. I like to visit the pub once in awhile but you guys live in them. I hope you guys can wise up and vote out that socialist government of yours. Good luck.

Don't tell me you have one thumb in your month, and the other....where ???

get real.............

Haggis

uh yea... Aussies have a socialist govt? pot, kettle, black?

Stuck for an answer......try another card trick.....

Och aye the nooooooooooo.........

Haggis

What you know about Oz wouldn't fill a thimble. Neither would your brain. WE have a very conservative gov't. Who are the welfare socialists around here??

http://www.adn.com:80/stories/T98120753.html

What is this, The Australian Intellectual Hour? Think of something intelligent to discuss, and I'll consider responding.

Why did gold pop yesterday morning? I've read all the reasons why it was forced back down, but yet to see a reason for the sharp rally out of the blue...
just curious,rb

Aurator; I was hoping for an earlier Peutz conformation; this in conjunction with the surprise ( F* ) turning point, that gave hope of a rapid upward movement in the gold price.

I think that the coming failure of "Rubin's Strong Dollar Policy" will be the reason that pushes gold to its proper level. By the way Rubin denies the resignation rumour last night.

My feeling is that with paper currencies failing on a regular basis; the US dollar will soon be suspect.

In enviroments where a fiat currency is believed to have wreaked havoc and is seen to have excessive control its easy to see a grassroots movement away from the causes.

It seems that the Japanese people will seek safety in gold, with low Japanese interest rates and many holding paper money outside of their banks, some gold will provide a security edge.
The argument that Japan needs US trade may apply to their industrial complex, but does it apply to the man on the street?

Even here we hear about increased bullion purchases and I'm sure that Aussies and Kiwis having already taken currency hits, wish they had owned some gold. In fact there still time.

Sometimes I think that Greenspans three drops didn't really sit well with Rubin.

Rubin says US leadership key to world economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981207/bhd.html

This is from the CRBINDEX and is good an explanation as any....
http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story2333.html

GOLD/SILVER
Feb gold shot up by as much as $5.20 in early morning trading but slipped
back in the afternoon, finding support at around $295. The gold market saw a rush of bank/dealer types this morning, "catching the market flat-footed," one trader said. "The market was quiet so long, and this was a sharp move higher in a short period of time," said another trader. Most sources attributed the uptick to technically-driven trade buying by large trade houses and to Australian producer buybacks.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981207/bhh.html

Thanks, sounds as good as any..
rb

Where's the "Mr clickity clack man" -- you know the steam engine guy that was around yesterday. Looks like he dem fell asleep at the wheel. up the hill, one foot on the gas pedal, the other on the brake.

All: The morning paper has a nice article from Scripps news service. Looks to me that the odds of impeachment in the House are better than 50/50.

Now I know why WJC et al are worried about a sealed indictment Starr submitted to some Judge ( whose name I have forgotten ) . The rationale goes like this: If WJC is impeached, and removed by the Senate, Kenneth Starr can then press criminal charges. No wonder WJC's lawyers are running at full steam! ( Panic? )

Now if a sealed indictment of some kind is really sitting in some Judges office, WJC is in trouble regardless, as the criminal proceedings would then begin after he steps down, anyway ( IMHO ) . Just imagine what kind of pressure that ( named ) judge must be under -- of course, he/she could deny that he has any sealed papers. On the other hand, WJC et al undoubtedly have infiltrated Kenneth Starr's organization.

It is just like a lawyer to fight the impeachment proceedings to prevent exposure of the sealed indictment ( if it exists ) . Why worry about the news coming out eventually -- that is secondary. The primary function of the ( defense ) lawyers is to postpone the process. Concepts of guilt and innocence are only a matter of who can prove what to a defense lawyer. Forget the truth. I think is is extremely distateful that WJC thinks so little of the American people that truth is not an issue. Just legal definition of right and wrong. Reminds me of Spiro T. Agnew.

All: My assessment regarding all of this is that WJC is in deep trouble, regardless. I doubt that the anti-impeachment forces will succeed in getting the House to censure the president.

Is the independent cousel law an abuse of power? I think not. After all, the last time an independent counsel got this far was during the time of Nixon. And WJC has done much more to abuse the system than Nixon ever did. Hence I do not consider the current situation an abuse of power by the Executive/Judicial brannches -- too bad Janet Reno is gumming up the works, even if the FBI director has repeated his concerns about conflict of interest.

Any comments from the legal eagles? Are there any statutes of limitation where sealed indictments expire if not acted upon in a timely fashion?

If I am right, it is time to increase gold holdings.

Just a thought: Perfect time for 'Wag the Dog'. Could be that the Oil producers might secretly support punishing Saddam. Easy way out of the oil production/price dilemma. Different from 1972 though -- that was an inflationary time -- this is not.

'Contrarian': Gollum isn't up yet. Funny -- he hasn't talked about the deadman switch. Don't think the old steam locomotives had them. Y2K compliant, though.

What's the chance of waking him today: Looks as though he's a bit tired

JTF - You're gonna love this. From the Kairos website. Click on 'picture' in each document to pull up a PDF file.

http://www.thewordistruth.org/narr_article.cfm?id=765

Globex down, bonds up, dollar down, gold slightly down, silver looking ominously down, oil up.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981208/eg.html

Still building our base for the run on the $300 barrier...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981208/d4.html

It was an odd looking jump in the chart, it looks like the price was changed from 292 to 295 but the market kept going a bit then settled into the new price. SDRer was posting that something was out of whack with the... well I'm not sure, but he said something was out of whack and he wondered how they would correct it without changing the price of gold. It had something to do with the EC cutting interest rates to 3% I think. Are you reading SDRer's posts? I am and I am trying to rapidly learn about the IMF and the SDR. At this point, I am confident that SDR is either a genius who is on to something or a genius who has been led astray by a fundamental flaw in his theory that know one else is smart enough to spot, or a raving lunatic. I don't know, maybe he is nothing more than a patent office clerk in Geneva, but he has my attention.

03:15 BLOW TO DEUTSCHE BANK, BANKERS TRUST DEAL OVER HOLOCAUST CLAIMS:FT.

Looks like it was just a buy order at the wrong time for some lulled to sleep shorts...like me...g thingy
rb

"My name is RJ and I am the self appointed spokesman for the LARGEST and MOST RESPECTED SELLER OF PMs in the WORLD! Read my own words here: "

RJ ( ..... Lying Sack-O-Gunny ..... ) ID#411259:

Copyright  1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Gunny,

Sounds to me as if you invested some money and lost some money.

Sad to read, that you did not do your homework, most here would, and have.

What happened, did the price move against you?

And it is all somebody else's fault, yes?

Is this the story you are trying to sell on this forum?

"High, my name is Gunny, and I blame others for what I do."

"Oh woe unto me, for the price moved against me."

How does this turn into lies and deceit? You have told five verifiable untruths, that I can prove. The recipients of your shady and untrue campaign have been forwarding you poorly written e-mails for months. But you will shout to all that it is all somebody else's fault.

Can I have a show of hands of all those who care a wit about this little ferret's smear campaign? It has been going on for almost 6 months, although most here don't realize that, because they skip right over the gun toting one's mysterious and oh so sneaky words.

Why are you so afraid, Gunny? Why do you speak in riddles? Why do you sit in the corner for six months, only to crawl out on your belly, make your cowardly and untrue attacks, and then crawl back into your own dried up puddle of urine to moan and cry and wail and lament that everything everywhere is all somebody else's fault?

I am willing to bet that you have similar problems with everyone you meet. Everybody screws up but you, yes? Do you follow advice when given to you? Were you advised to do trades that would limit your losses, nay, even gain you profits? Did you refuse this good advice? I rather think you would rather blame and point fingers at all sorts of folks, and carry on a cowardly sneaky e-mail campaign. It is no wonder that some folks will have nothing to do with you.

You are a sneak

You are a coward.

You are a liar

You act like a child

You are very unpleasant

You smell

Thus do I apprise you, lad.

Let's really get this thing going, now folks. I have had enough of this weasel of a guttersnipe and his yellow bellied attacks. We will set this straight, or we will fall in the attempt, yes?

Yes.

PS

Gunny, I gave you six months. I give you no more. Your attacks will stop. Count on it.

Indeedy and Righty O.. you stupid fool.

OK

To the rest of the High and Mighty

Were are the words of scorn and derision towards Gunny, by the same folks who complain about me whenever I defend myself far better than the attacker attacked? Your words are being held back for some reason. This is an obvious and unwarranted attack by the rabid gun moll. Where are the folks to tell him to take his crap elsewhere? If you keep silent this night, then you are as shallow as I have always suspected. If these same folks wish to take me to task for this post, beware. I am in a jolly mood, and would love to snack on a few skulls, and gnaw on the cartilage this evening. I'm just getting warmed up.

Yep.

Oh yeah, I will be gone for a time. Other's may take up my noble cause.

I am sure they will.

Uh Huh"

.

.

.

.

Well, now, yes ... Wasn't that pleasant? Just who did he mean by "rest of the High and Mighty"? The rest of the goldbugs on this forum? Inquiring minds want to know.

Belittle me with your lies and psycho-ops tactics all you want, RJ. It just keeps proving what kind of a "nice" sales-clerk person you really are... And a wonderful spokesman for the company who employs you.

Yes folks - buy gold from this nice fellow. He works HARD for his money here at Kitco. GO, you sales-clerk, GO!

Indeedy

Oh, and go gold!

Some dealers said bearish sentiment is expected to continue dominating the gold market, while higher lease rates prevent dealers from opening short positions. Gold's 1-month lease rate has risen to around 2%, compared with below 1% in early November, due to a withdrawal by lenders ahead of the end of year, they said.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/2200.1.html

A quick look at this realtime POG site and you'd be mistaken for wondering whether or not Gold might be having an OOB experience.

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm

Grow up you crybaby
Nobody likes you
There is a reason

Yes

Lurker777 - Your 23:55 last night was a well thought out post and should be read by any wishing to insulate themselves from volatile markets in 1999. One amendment might be in order however, and that is ( my suggestion ) change the 290 to a 300 put. This will increase your cost by $260 dollars but increase your protection on a down move by $1,000. dollars! Also, according to the site you posted that gives quotes for option prices, ( Thanks again, BTW as I used to have it in my bookmarks but lost it! ) , there is only a volume of 2 for $290 puts ( might be hard to get an order filled ) , however the $300's had a volume of 200. Here are the details: the 290 ( put ) 670 ( cost ) 670.00 2 ( volume )
30000 ( put ) 930 ( cost ) 930.00 200 ( volume )

"Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past." ---George Orwell

If your right, then today price of gold should drift back down to 292? I think it will hold at the new price of 295.

Time is running out to join in the fun. This Saturday Dec. 12th Toronto area Toronto and area Kitcoites are gathering at Toronto's downtown Sheraton for a festive Brunch and lively discussion of inflation, deflation, and gold maipulation! ( amongst about 25 other topics ) We have out of province guests showing up from as far away as New Hampsire and Alberta! Anyone who still has not registered but would like to attend please e-mail me at: moonstep@idirect.com as I have made the reservations and need to know exact numbers, please inform me ASAP, if you would like to come. 6Pak - I saw you post last night, you wanted to make the summer meeting but couldn't - are you up for this one? I still have your button from aurator! ROR - where 'R you? - Sung to the T.V. tune! ;- )

For the last several years the price of gold has been dominated by central banks,producers, and hedge funds. There has also been some auxilliary impact from sales for coins, jewelery, and goldbugs.

With the gold carry trade in full swing, central banks looking to pick up some spare change from leasing operations, and producers continueing to produce to meet forward sales contracts even when demand had slowed, the trend in prices had been steadily down down down.

Since the depths of September however there has been a shift in the winds.

Central banks have gone into quiet mode for the introduction of the Euro, gold carry trade has died along with hedge fund profits, producers are turning more to writing puts instead of forward sales and as existing contracts run out will be building inventories to write their puts against, and the trend in prices has turned from down into a narrow trading range just below $300.

Coin and jewelery demand has picked up and a rapid increase in demand to hedge against Y2K uncertainties will be building throughout the coming year.

Once we get through the tax loss season there is every reason to suppose we will see a time of actual increasing trend in prices.

What happens after the the end of 1999, though is still in the air.

As the old Historiche Grafiek shows, in your last post with URL & chart kindly supplied, the downtrend line in gold connecting the Feb/Sept/April peaks has been BROKEN. To the UPSIDE! The breakout, gentle though it may be, has softly return moved to old resistance which is now new support. The little return move seemingly complete ( the little return move that "could" ) , price is now gently rising...rising...yes...

Ready on the left...

ready on the right...

Got more treasury puts?

I think i can, i think i can, i think i can....

http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm

Mooney.. Yes, I will attend on December 12th.

Toronto Downtown Sheraton. I expect the front desk will direct us to the festive brunch eh! Or, do you expect to receive an E-Mail to confirm attendance. Do you have a phone number for the Sheraton ?

Thanks Mooney. Take Care.

Some obscure central bank announcing a sale? Report from India of gold sales down? What will the rumor be today?

March long 129 10/32.stop 129.

It so happens that I had printed out that graph earlier, and having joined up the same tops you mention had stuck it on the wall this afternoon.

Incidentally, apart from the New Moon, is there anything else astrologically interesting about 18th December - coinciding as it is with the Fed's Rate meeting and an equities "market-tanking" prediction by a longtime bond market expert ?

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that a speculation in gold based on Y2K growing demand is a good play. Three factors:

1 ) Growing concern about the ability of banks to provide cash as needed increases in the amount of hoarded cash
2 ) Drop in stock market diminishes equities as an investment class with the exception of #4
3 ) Perception of gold as a safe store of wealth increases as cash moves into gold, increasing the price
4 ) Never ones to fight a trend, mutual fund managers jump on the bandwagon an start pushing gold stock mutual funds

-EJ

Union Carbide warns Q4 will be worse than expected

DANBURY, Conn., Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - Chemicals giant Union Carbide
Corp. ( UK - news ) said Tuesday that its fourth quarter operating results
would be even worse than earlier thought as a weak global chemicals market, particularly in Asia, continues to
hamper profits.

Union Carbide said its reported earnings are likely to meet the current Wall Street expectation of 31 cents per share.
The results, however, will be substantially affected by a gain on proceeds from a litigation settlement and by several
projects expected to hurt operating earnings, it said.

Cash in a part of my 401k, take the tax & penalty hit, buy some physical.
I'm 45 now, and if I wait 'till 2013 for 401k payout, what will Tax Rate
be then? probably worse than the penalties now.

??? What is magic about your selected date 1/4/99 ?

I was thinking of waiting 'till later in the year when y2k hysteria
will be peaking. Maybe taxes & penalties might be overlooked? If not,
just pay them. At least I will have "a bird in the hand". Would
appreciate further thoughts. -Regards

Er.

A poll of polls reported here on the Beeb site concludes UK will be in the grip of a recession next year. Time for interest rate cuts. Larger than expected...soon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_230000/230226.stm

6 Pak - You just made my day! I have been posting here and e-mailing others for a couple of weeks now trying to hunt you and other deliquents down! E-mail me today and I will send you some of he posts I have sent the others! moonstep@idirect.com Standing by!

Three mo cd's are running at 6.38% offered today. There is no doubt in the mind of money traders that rates are headed lower on Thursday. 25bps is seen for sure, while others are hoping for 50 bps. I expect a 50 bps easing.

The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index continues to decline. It is now at +360. This MUST turn for any positive trend to begin.

The New Lows on Toronto Mining Issues are sick. We have had more than the benchmark 5 new lows per day each of the last 10 days. Not good. This could be caused by tax loss selling, but must improve for a new bullish phase to start.

The 220 day MA of gold is at 295.19 and is now declining. This must be penetrated to the upside.

The 200 day MA of the Toronto Gold Index ( ^tgl on Yahoo ) is at 6347 and going sideways. This must be broken as well for any bullish action to take place.

The trend line that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low in the Toronto Gold Index is at 5577 this week. We are at 6169 right now.

It won't take much to turn this around, but things are negative until that happens. The market will tell us that the trend is improving. Until then, caution is the word.

What's your take and what are you hearing in the trade.

After forgetting about impeachment for a while, Wall Street frets anew. Some analysts put the chances of impeachment at 50/50.

Dow falls at open on impeachment talk

NEW YORK, Dec 8 ( Reuters ) - U.S. blue chips opened lower on
Tuesday, as impeachment talk sparked some profit-taking in the Dow.

``The impeachment hearings are certainly not a positive for the markets,''
Barry Hyman, market strategist for Ehrenkrantz & King. ``One never
knows what may come out of the hearings. I do think that weighs upon
the market as well.''

Geo. Washington, the 1st pres couldn't tell a lie
WJC the last pres, knows how to better than most.
Stange, like la ronde, we've come full cirlce.

6 Pak - Email me Now for details of Toronto Get Together!
moonstep@idirect.com

Big Fisherman,
Have searched for a followup since your below post. "be back this evening" Is this joke on me?


Date: Mon Dec 07 1998 13:15
BigFisherman ( Unconfirmed Rumor ) ID#258273:
Heard from a hacker that Soros is about to devour his own young. That is, body slam
the PM shorts. Makes sense to me. Seeking confirmation. Several cyber-libertarians
are currently trying to hack relevant email sources. Be back this evening. Gotta go.

WARNING: As in any recon effort take no action without confirmation.

Rangy is back. The ticker symbol was changed this morning from Ranyd.


I have a theory that bear markets in gold are not over until the South Aftricans collapse. They did that in August.

The next rule says that South Africans are not finished their decline until Debeers capitulates. That took place too.

Debeers is retesting the lows of last summer. It should recover and point the way for the long anticipated mega-move in South African mining shares. Keep an eye on it for a clue.

http://www.newswire.ca//releases/December1998/08/c2756.html

Question - Why is it that George Washington's picture acn be on the American one dollar bill but not Bill Clinton's. This is a serious quiz - No Joke.

PricewaterhouseCoopers Management
Consultants Identify Top Ten Trends
Affecting Global Companies in 1999....

( one of which being... )

Taking advantage of the Euro as a driver of strategic change: The Euro may be set to
rival the U.S. dollar as a dominant global currency. This raises significant
opportunities and demand for change among global organizations operating or planning
to operate in Europe.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981208/ny_pricewa_1.html

sadly, because uncle Billy is still kicking.

The emblem on the back left hand side of the one dollar bill shows a pyramid along with the all seeing eye. This is in direct relation to George Washington, both being Masonic. The bill also contains 2 other masonic emblems.

Is WJC A Free-Mason; if so, what level? Can this association be tied
to UN and NWO agendas?

Thanks. That is all.

Mooney; whats the answer?

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnMYYubSbzJaWndm&FQ=c%25%25FINANCIAL%20and%20v%25ap&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20c%25%25FINANCIAL%20and%20v%25ap%0A

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnMYYub8ZtJa4otG5ntG&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

Would someone please post the URL for the Kitco discussion group search engine? TIA.

incredible financial turmoil and death spiral...gold would solve this...why then do the REFUSE to do what is right and WOULD solve the problem...

They are leeches and social planners...dirtbags one and all...nuff said...

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/retrieval.html

http://www.acsys.com/~hong/retrieval.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_smith/19981208_xcsof_motorola_c.shtml

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-12/08/043r-120898-idx.html

You already know the answer, the dirtbags have been at it for so long they even begin to believe the crap they spew out and of course greed.
Long term in politics is a week

go gold & silver

cpo

What's the secret for making the search engine work? I get nada.

the general is correct....... ( I believe ) ....he is still alive....

but unlike the general I would not wish anyone dead before his 'time'.............. ( whatever time that is ) ?

btw....... ( this is stolen from someone....don't know who ) ...."I would like to know where I'm gonna die.....so I know NEVER to go there".

now, get out there and SELL THE RALLIES!! go golF!

away.....to grind ophthalmic lenses to 'give' my 'merkan friends 20/20 vision....... ( working on a 20/20 hindsight lens ) ......... :- )



Never mind..working now.

coffee taste better saying it...recently bankers I know have gotten real quiet around me because of my constant questions and providing them with written materials on Y2K...compliant my Island that is Long ass...

politicians I never get around...not the kind we have...are there not any Statesman left in America...any...ONE...

http://www.newaus.com.au/econ99us.html

G&P to ya......and a hearty namast as well. I heard from a good source that you pass out wint-o-green lifesavers like they was goin' outta style............yummy. hmmmmm......or was that 24k lifesavers?!? ( grin ) ...

away......to fly to the island that is long

ird,noplane,nosupergoldbugbear......;- )

Farfel, gold's most vocal fan, has apparently given up. Indeed, gold
seems to be slipping back toward its previous doldrum of $292.

Farfel's main concern seemed to be the power that the Fed has to
sit on the price of gold. But Greenspan in due to retirement and
Robert Rubin is rumored to be resigning next year. This too me
is an indication that the Fed.'s ability to manipulate the price of
gold downward is diminishing, and the main proponents of POG control
are bailing out before POG goes balistic and the USD sinks.

For those of you who think the USD and the Fed are too strong to allow
gold to rise, consider the following:

1. Why does the mighty USD require interest rates of 4.75% when Europe
has dropped theirs to 3%. If the US does not drop its rates soon,
the spread will deflate the world economy and inflate the bond
market. The rise in the USD will turn off the industrial export
industry in the US. IF THIS SOUNDS FAMILIAR, IT IS BECAUSE THIS
SCENARIO IS WHAT CAUSED THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS WHICH HAS NOW
SPREAD TO SOUTH AMERICA. Ergo the US will drop interest rates on
Dec. 17.

2. Greenspan has admitted that gold leasing is the main mechaism in
the control of POG. If the Fed lowers, and continues to do so at
.25% per month, then leasing will cease to be a factor in POG
control in about 4 months. This drops leases for one month gold
to the 2.2 to 2.4% forward rates at which CBs lose control of POG.
All of this assumes lease rates remain at the present 1.5%. For
.25% increase in lease rates, subtract one month from my estimate
for a upsurge in POG. gotta run.

This will add $2,105 to the average salary in the area, bringing it up to $59,307.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/120898/politicst_3689.html

Before the tremendous outpouring of enthusiam for this morning's 10:10 quiz wanes, the answer shall be revealed to all before someone or other amongst us explodes with curiosity.
"Tue Dec 08 1998 10:10 Mooney* ( @Reify and All ) ID#350194: Question - Why is it that George Washington's picture can be on the American one dollar bill but not Bill Clinton's. This is a serious quiz - No Joke."
Answer - During America's Civil War the government in Washington embarked upon Americas's second experiment with 'greenbacks', ( paper money backed not by specie but merely by good faith alone ) , during which time, " Some of the greenbacks had been decorated with portraits of President Lincoln ( $5 ) and Secretary Chase ( $1 ) . However, when Spencer Clark, chief clerk of the Treasury's National Currency Division, put his own portrait on 5-cent fractional notes, the indignant Rep. Martin R. Thayer put through a law, still in force, making it illegal to put the picture of any living American on any coin or paper money." I guess that means that Reify and Mooney are OK candidates for the new $1,000,000 bills?
BTW - These 'greenbacks very rapidly deteriorated in value ( first issued about Feb. 1862, at war's end in 1865 worth about $.69 in Gold. ( Hey, sounds like the Canadain Loonie! )
The reason for the greenback experiment? At the end of 1861 the Treasury suspended specie payment and "Gresham's Law went into operation and Gold coin virtually disappeared from circulation,..." These quotes BTW are from "The Case For Gold" by Rep. Ron Paul and Lewis Lehrman.
When were the other 'Greenback' experiments?
#1 ) The 'Continental' at the time of the American Revolution. When it rapidly became worthless, the expression sprang up 'Not worth a Continental'
#3 ) The present unbacked greenback ( and longest surving albeit VERY depreciated since 1971 ) which effectively began its experiment on August 15, 1971 when President Nixon announced that no more gold would be given in exchange for American dollars. The immediate effet was the massive inflation that the world has experienced ever since. ( By mid- Dec. - only four months later the Americam Dollar had fallen by 12.5% against th German Mark and 12.3% against the Japanese Yen ) . Remember Gold at this tiime was $35.US per ounze. In the last ten years it has averaged about $350.US Thus your 1970 dollar is now worth about one thin dime. Momentary deflation may be here at present, but will it get us down to $35 again? I think not. If today's standard greenback survives the next few years the massive PRINTING of said FIAT will result in AT LEAST $1,200 by 2003!
Y'all have a nice day!

as finck buys his last 6 million shares before triggering poison pill. hm is in value territory here.

and providing an alternative of gold in full opposition to the dirtbag statists...social planning living abortions...fiat lies and deceit...

The Top16 Signs Your White House Internship Is
Going Well



16. The President lets you ride on "Air Force One", if you know what I mean.

15. Boss not only implements "Casual Fridays" but also "Topless Tuesdays."

14. You've just leapfrogged Al Gore in the line of succession.

13. "Oooh, yeah, baby -- I'll make you a White House Secretary ... Assistant Chief of Staff... ohhh... Ambassador to
Sweden!... Supreme Court Justice!!! Supreme Court Justice!!!"

12. The President has the Secret Service detail your '91 Taurus.

11. Buddy no longer wastes time sniffing both your crotch and the President's.

10. After your first "meeting" with "The Boss," you move up 2 tax brackets.

9. As if national publicity, a $1M movie deal, and $10M in Democratic hush money wasn't enough, the Paula Jones Foundation
for Homely Women has donated $20K to you for a full makeover.

8. You get to sit on Gore's lap during the State of the Union Address.

7. You know the White House like you know the back of the President's head.

6. Your per diem is bigger than Peru's GNP and your only duty is to keep silent.

5. The first lady invites you on a private ski weekend.

4. The Vice President isn't the only "stiffie" you've seen in the White House.

3. Performance review rated you a "10" in the category "Ability to turn-on the president with your hillbilly good looks."

2. Al Gore's pulse jumps up to3 when you pass by.

and the Number1 Sign Your White House Internship Is Going Well...

1. It ain't Keats, but for Bubba, "Shall I compare thee to a Big Mac" is pretty damn romantic.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/politics/120898/politicst_3689.html

Presidential half-brother sued over 'doggie-gate'

Copyright  1998 Nando Media
Copyright  1998 Reuters News Service

LOS ANGELES ( December 7, 1998 8:15 p.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com ) - Roger Clinton, the guitarist half-brother of Bill Clinton, is due in court Thursday to face accusations in a civil lawsuit that his dog, a golden labrador named Bear, attacked a neighbor's rottweiler and then turned his fangs on the dog's owner.

Who is in the right and who is in the wrong will be decided by a jury, which lawyers for both sides say is unusual for a case that would normally have been settled out of court with no loud barking.

David Brown, the attorney representing Rottweiler owner Jeff Klempan, says he does not really have a bone to pick with Clinton or his dog. "We just want to get our compensation and go home," he said.

But Brown complained that Clinton and his lawyer, Kevin James, are turning the case into something much bigger than it really is.

"It's the defense that has turned this into the trial of the century -- doggie-gate," Brown said after the case, which had been set for Monday, had been postponed until Thursday by Municipal Court Judge William Willet.

James said Klempan would never had made the claim if Clinton had not been the nation's "First Brother." "It's just because of who he is," said the lawyer.

In the lawsuit, Klempan claims he was walking his Rottweiler, named Dakota, on a leash when Clinton's dog burst out of the house and attacked. While trying to separate the two canines, Klempan alleges, Clinton's Lab bit him.

Klempan, a tree-trimmer, is seeking unspecified damages for medical bills, lost wages and pain and suffering. Under California law, awards in municipal court cases are limited to $25,000.

Clinton is counter suing Klempan in Los Angeles Superior Court for $300,000. He claims to have suffered mental anguish while watching the dogfight.

http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html

--
Local governments must disclose efforts to solve year-2000 problem
http://www.msnbc.com/news/211432.asp

---
Christian Computing Magazine
http://www.gospelcom.net/ccmag/y2k/
http://www.gospelcom.net/ccmag/y2k/msty1198.html

--
G North
Assigning Blame In Y2k & Beyond
http://www.reformed-theology.org/ice/newslet/reconstruction/cr98.07.htm

With the White House Panel looking into it, could be that it'll settle down somewhat.....either that or Greenspan will convince them it's absolutely necessary to control it for world economic and currency reasons. In any event, starting Jan 1, it could get tougher to control it also.

Major power outage in the San Francisco-Bay area has closed the Pacific Stock Exchange.

I really didn't need for the Pacific exchange to go down.

I thought the board was going to vote to let him slide through the pill, something change ? I know he had made the request and they were considering it.

Do you think 65 will hold today?
( or HUI 70? )
The ( down ) trend looks to be very assertive this morn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000158118408973&pg=/et/98/12/6/nbug06.html

---
UK nuclear navy computers said unchecked for Y2K
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/Technology/19981206_111537_999_9999.asp

The pride of the seven seas - good as gold???

finck owns 14.2% of hm as of august. he is still technically able to buy 6 million more shares which would take him up to the 15% threshold. it is my opinion that he has been buying since the merger news, absorbing the shares being dumped by weak prime holders. the volume over the last couple of days has been relatively high over the last 30 days. since hm will undoubtedly spike when the news is announced that finck has gotten the go ahead to buy up to 25%, it would be wise to sop up any shares prior to that event. It is also interesting to note that he in fact saved a little powder ( the last .8% ) for this weak end of year--tax loss/post merger scenario.

on a technical basis, stochastics are in a buy zone, bollinger bands are a buy, price action is down-sideways for 13 days in a row all showing extreme oversold, plus call volume is dead.

hm is a buy on many indicators.

Well when I finnally got to work in SSF the generators were all fired up and the production plant was still humming along. I hope they get the power up soon though or we'll have to call in the deisel tankers. Sorry about the PSE though Gollum.

The CRB is falling fast as commodities crumble. Deflation is accelerating
and the fed will in my opinion lower rates again when they meet on Dec 17.My prediction of a runaway deflation is becoming a reality.Fasten your seat belts, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Yesterday's high was 297.90 which has been tested at least 7-8 times on daily charts since Nov 20th. 200 day moving average comes around 294.10.

The Brazilian Bovespa Index is down over 3.0%, on fears that important legislation scheduled to come up for a vote on Wednesday will not be passed.

A creeping sense of uncertainty in Brazil has been enhanced by comments by Venezuelan President-Elect Chavez. He said that four plans were under consideration to lessen the countries debt-load. They range from exchanging bonds for equity stakes in government owned companies to a restructing of payments. If the situation in Venezuela in not handled well, there could be negative consequences for Brazil. A Venezuelan triggered sell-off in emerging market debt could make the process of lowering Brazilian interest rate much more difficult.

There is a growing chance that Latin America could be a big burden to the dollar.

Source: ICT

As of a few moments ago, with gold at $293.10 and the S&P 500 Stock Index at 1190.02, the S&P/Gold ratio is currently at a new all-time high of 4.055. The current record for a day's close is July 18, 1998, when the ratio hit 4.038. If this holds, we'll have a new record.

At 4.055, we are 19.2% up over the 1997 year-end ratio ( 3.402 ) , 44.7% over the PEAK day ( 2.802 ) in 1968; and, 162.1% over the PEAK day in 1929.

Having restructured my portfolio believing that this mania could not go on, this truly is painful...

Fergie

Should have read, gold at $293.40, not 293.10...

Troubles with one of my ISPs this morning .Any way went short 18 5/8 NEM
when 68.10 was broken.Right now we looking at 63 XAU as target for today.

Aprreciate help finding URL for report that RR and AG studying POG manipulation.

Thanks

Date: Fri Dec 04 1998 19:53
LazloT ( Reprinted from The Spotlight ) ID#316200:
Copyright  1998 LazloT/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Wall Streets Golden Egg Is Scrambled

Borrowing gold dirt cheap, a leading hedge fund used the gold to finance its investments. Then the house of cards came tumbling down.

Exclusive to the Spotlight -- By Martin Mann

New York City, New York - The White House is quietly assembling a task force of federal investigators to look into reports that a back-room syndicate of Wall Streets largest banks and hedge funds has been engaged in vast and risky speculative maneuvers that involved, among other tactics, rigging the market value and global supply of gold.

This vital precious metal has been bought and sold for more than a year in large quantities at unnaturally low and stagnant price levels in both of the worlds principal gold trading centers, London and New York, sources noted.

When Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan engineered an emergency bailout worth billions last September for a foundering East Coast hedge fund, known as Long Term Capital Management ( LTCM ) , regulators found that this private investment firm had assumed large hidden trading positions in gold.

That was a disturbing discovery, sources say. LTCM was known for wheeling and dealing in the securities and currency markets, but not in commodities.

They made enormous bets on stocks, bonds and even Asian currencies, says veteran financial analyst Ron Welker. When they suddenly went bust in late August, they were in danger of defaulting on speculative forward contracts worth a staggering $200 billion. But gold was never supposed to be part of LTCMs portfolio.

LTCM used gold merely as an instrument to finance its gambles, says Welker. They found that they could borrow gold in any quantity at dirt-cheap interest rates, often amounting to no more that one and one-half percent. They immediately sold their borrowed bullion, and thus acquired funding on which they paid only minimal interest, far below the prevailing loan rates.

There was a catch, of course. Gold prices had to be kept stagnant, otherwise LTCM would have incurred a loss, instead of a profit, when its gold-borrowing contracts expired and it had to buy back the bullion it had sold in order to return it to the lenders, Welker explained.

But LTCM was not alone in making mammoth speculative bets in the financial markets, regulators found.

Wall Streets largest commercial and investment banks are increasingly acting like hedge funds themselves, says Tracy Corrigan, who covers U.S. money markets for The Financial Times, the prestigious business daily based in England.

Behind the scenes were the Rockefeller dynastys flagship, Chase Manhattan conglomerate, Citigroup, the largest U.S. financial services corporation, and Bankers Trust. They were all found to have turned to the sort of high-risk speculation characteristic of hedge funds.

They all reported losses running into the billions after LTCMs collapse, says Welker. Many of these magabanks were apparently also involved in borrowing and manipulating vast amounts of gold to finance their betting streaks.

SPECULATIVE RAIDS?

Was gold used to help fuel the speculative raids that wrecked the economies of half-a-dozen Asian countries last year? A group of regional leaders, led by Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysias long-ruling nationalist strongman, wants to know.

Moreover, as this issue of The Spotlight went to press, it was learned that at the Clinton White House, a recently formed and mysterious authority known as the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets is moving to coordinate its own broad investigation of these speculative excesses that have roiled the worlds financial and commodity markets in recent months.

Just came across your question re Dec 18th. Interesting that Mars opposes NYSE MidHeaven ( 10 Aries ) from Libra on the 16th, and 17th ( and, I suppose, with carryover into the 18th ) . Since Mars moves about a degree and a half a day, those days may indeed show some volatility. Could be up just as well as down. Anyone's guess there. But I don't see this as a major aspect with longterm significance. Unless, of course, it is the little match that lights a bigger fire.

That's what I was afraid of...
Well - I bet too early on a reversal, ( long odds )
Poota says stand aside when HUI drops through 70 ( at this rate around 15:00 )
Rats and double rats ( with my luck it'll be the low point ( daily basis ) of a V bottom : )

P.S.
Has anyone heard of EarthLink related problems during the last week?
( handles routing of Hotmail, some GVT agency emails etc? )

None of my levers work properly unless everything is up and running smoothly. An exchange goes down unexpectedly and suddenly everything goes all out of balance. Look at what happened to gold after the PSE went down, and just when I had a nice little up move all set.

Getting signal we change direction,covered at 18.Next 10 minutes will show

Today's new low: 192.86
52-week Range 194.62 - 238.39
Goodnight ...

http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

Sold my long SPZ from 1155 when the gap was filled near 1195. A couple in's and out's along the way netted nearly 50 SnP points. Now looking to possibly sell the market in the next few days some where over 1200.
If the XAU doesn't hold 65 it could go to 58. No change on the metals.

"Iraqi civilization, for instance, did not collapse despite the terrible bombing campaign it suffered in 1991, combined with embargoes and disastrous losses in Kuwait. "

cough.

New York city. Los Angeles. These ain't civilized areas like Iraq:
they've already had the power go out and things ain't cute.

Memes: Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em.

Spud, watching the MIC implode from the inside

"Engines of Creation", by K Eric Drexler, father of nanotechnology.

A great read - very, very thought stimulating - draws analogy between human body immune system and our mind's mental immune system - how we effectly protect our brain OS against bad ideas aka evil memes.

( sotto voce: for you fans of Orwell, Peter Huber has a book out titled "Orwell's Revenge" which is the sequel to "1984" - I loved it ) .

Spud, sipping Diet Dr Pepper in Lewisville, TX, chuckling over latest LockMart X-33 blather: single stage to Palmdale indeedy.

GO GOLD! ... dammit ...

Looking very weak, could tumble lot more today

BARON ROBERT
ROTHSCHILD
Baron Robert Rothschild, Belgian
Ambassador to Britain, 1973-76, died on
December 3 aged 86. He was born on
December 16, 1911.

Robert Rothschild served his country in a
series of diplomatic posts ranging from China
through America to Africa, before his final
posting as Ambassador in London, where he
settled after his retirement in 1976.
Rothschild was a friend of Britain and was
concerned that she should take her place at
the centre of Europe.

With the Belgian statesman Paul-Henri
Spaak he worked for two years on the Treaty
of Rome in the mid-1950s, and at that early
stage was anxious that Britain should
participate. Later, in 1974 when the Labour
Government of Harold Wilson was in the
process of renegotiating the terms of Britain's
membership of what was then the European
Economic Community, he made a powerful
plea to British MPs and civic leaders not to
consider leaving the EEC. "We strongly hope
that Great Britain will remain one of the
leaders of a unified Europe . . . It is because
we need your moral and political influence."

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/

in Obituaries section....did lots of stuff, POW in war, escaped, diplomat to Asia....quite impressive actually. I wonder how much gold he controlled?

Bought at 17 7/8

When you accept the notion that your mind has a mental immune system to protect itself from informational germs ( evil memes, "bad ideas" ) then the crap we've been bombarded with for the last fifty years on TV makes perfect sense ...

...politicians can not control people who are skeptical, questioning ...

so they attack the mental immune system via attacks on:

1 ) the classic family structure
2 ) individualism
3 ) hard science education

they've used

1 ) Television to project their crappy ideas through the agency of sitcomms, TV series that gently seduced the audience into believing that aberrant behavior was acceptable, i.e. divorce, drug use, broken families, debt, failing school grades...

2 ) Political correctness to intimidate and constain ideas that would otherwise challenge them.

3 ) Emphasized "emotion" over "logic"

Face it: most Americans suffer from this informational infection now - a kind of AIDS of the mind.

And, yea, we are just like the Roman Empire prior to its collapse. We richly deserve our fate.

America: Once were free people.

Spud

It's sad, but WAY too believable. Sure hope they don't invade Kentucky next ( that state's #1 cash crop is the puff stuff ) .

St. Vincent And The Grenadines: Marijuana War

Caribbean troops backed by six U.S. Marine Corps helicopters are beginning a two-week campaign to eradicate an estimated 12,000 acres of marijuana on St. Vincent, BBC News reported. It said the island's marijuana growers' association, warning that the destruction of the crop would drive up the island's 40 percent unemployment rate, has written to President Clinton demanding compensation.

from the December 8, 1998 New York Times

Since marijuana is reputed to be Arkansas Number One cash crop,
I view the St. Vincent action as Clinton just eliminating a business competitor. Right, go ahead and appeal St. Vincent - Bill needs a chuckle between Oval Office partial vacuums.
Spud

Seems to me I remember reading a lot of stuff on Kitco last winter about the big boys loaning out their gold and the eplosive potential of them having to cover their shorts. Kitcoites may not have gotten all the particulars right but you guys seem to have known the basic outines of whats going on--way to go. One reason I need my Kitco fix every day.

I like the looksof these intraday charts. Familiar pattern. Looks somewhat like weekly gold over last three years or more ( ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny? ) . Daily gold since Aug has traced out a pattern like weekly gold 1985 bottoming. looks a lot like coffee Jul-
Dec 88. Or how about Canada dollar wk86, DM & SF
wkly Jan -Sep 87. Shorts have just about used up all their ammo.

Time to pump up the ol' xau a little.

You're 13:45 is right on!

You know, if we have such a 'civilized' society, why are they so worried about the black out by the bay...........

I regret to inform you that the shorts have probably got more ammo now that when they started this farce. ( :?0 ) and a grin.

Anyone know cause for the drop?

Do your best

I'm kinda nervous about doing my best, what with exchanges going down in the middle of the day and all, but I'll run down and give it a little tug. Here it comes...

do they have the gold?

For this they must ultimately DELIVER.

Due to impending impeachment of BC and the 'awareness' of potential Y2K [problems as a result of the Great San Francisco BLACKOUT!!! STOCK EXCHANGE IS CLOSED FOR BUSINESS!!! What would happen if WALL STREET were to close? Heh..heh. What a great day to buy GOLD!!!

DOW off 87, tick -1066 hmmmm.

14:03 VENEZUELA'S CARACAS MARKET SOARS AFTER CHAVEZ VICTORY-AP.

13:41 PACIFIC EXCHANGE TO REOPEN OPTIONS TRADING LATER TUESDAY.
13:40 PACIFIC EXCHANGE EQUITY TRADING NOT TO RESUME TRADING TUESDAY-DJ.

Arabs are not going to cut production.Scare tactic to get other producers in line? Russia has no choice but to sell.Lower oil prices.

seems to me a lot more people are itching to buy than to sell at these prices. lot of longs think they can get a few bucks more by waiting...waiting...nooooooo I missed it...ahhhhhg

Spud Master-- genetics/memetics is an interesting area,
been mining it for a few years. I like this one--

'If one would understand politics, first study evolution.'

Here's a lengthy speech by psychologist William James
to be taken at leisure if interesting, given at the
Harvard Club in 1880 indicating the notable James was
hip to the trick over a hundred years ago. He'd
already gone one better than Darwin.

http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/tmc.htm

A recent example of your 13.14 was all the trash recently falling from space, shutting down the guidance systems , television etc.
She who must be obeyed is still watching the OOOOpra show.

18 and rising : )

nice little pop at the close. good setup for tomorrow...or thursday

Various posters have stated that I have given up on Precious Metals. They are exaggerating somewhat.

Yes, in one sense that is true GIVEN THAT RUBIN, GREENSPAN, & CLINTON CONTINUE TO PULL THE MACRO-ECONOMIC LEVERS OF THIS ECONOMY. Their incessant, gross manipulation and chronic intervention in America's once free markets has created the super-sized stock market bubble...their cronyism on behalf of friends at Chase, Goldman, Bankers, JP Morgan, Merrill, and other large hedge fund investors, has injected moral hazard into the once neutral markets...their relentless efforts to aid and abet ultra-cheap financing for this financial bubble via facilitation of the gold carry trade has effectively destroyed the gold and silver industry.

HOWEVER, with the removal of these forementioned interventionist "perpetrators"...with their replacement by laissez faire free market disciples, then there is significant likelihood that Precious Metals will reassert their proper role as an alternative, pandemic, de facto currency...the ultimate flight to safety. In such a case, PM's would soar through the roof. Two thousand dollars an ounce for gold would be a LOW estimate of gold's price revaluation in such a new, free world.

However, until such time, I believe that any notable PM price appreciation is a pipe dream.

Thanks.

F*

sliced through the 5% interest.

dropping like a rock

looking pretty good

sold 18

oops, William James speech-

http://www.physics.wisc.edu/~shalizi/James/great_men.html

skinny-- yup.

http://www.yahoo.com.sg/headlines/081298/world/913092120-1208054245.newsworld.html

As people watch commodities spiraling down,confidence will evaporate and realization that we are headed for a depression will reassert itself. Fear is about to descend on our land. As unemployment in 1999 skyrocket,public spending on luxury items will cease and people will buy only necessities. Our government will lower interest rates in a hurry attempting to stop the coming depression but as I have said before,the deflationary spiral can't be stopped or altered by any politician or central banker.It will run to exhaustion. Nuff said for today.

If there is an all sell off going on what will happen next year?

Seems a lot of farmers will be ruined and stop breeding.

The CRB index is down to 19250.

This is indeed a strong sign of deflation.

So far, gold is keeping it's price level constant. These days, gold proves at least one thing: it doesn't behave like a commodity. It behaves more like money, but not yet quite.

Guys that say: "it's not the size of the building that counts..." must have small buildings!

http://www.resignation.com/currentcalls/index.html

I agree with your thesis. WJC, RR, and AG have got all of their fingers
in the dike ( not Janet ) and they are holding on for dear life.

RR wants out. AG is soon to retire. WJC will have to find replacements
for these two very soon.

Clinton ran under a banner saying: "It's the economy, stupid". To get
the dream economy that he wanted, he did have to resort to market
manipulation. His polls reflect his success. If his polls were to drop, he would be "out of there". So, these are days of desperation for
the PPT, because if the market plunges his polls will drop.

The shepple would condone ANYTHING to keep this bubble economy that
they love so well. Here, Mr. President, take my daughter, but dont let
the stock market crash...

Cut from TheStreet.com....I could give a toss if any market maker went bust....paper slush game drying up....come to the REAL stuff...gold.

"....Some of you were under the mistaken impression that when I said traditional Nasdaq players are getting hurt, that I meant buy siders are
getting hurt. Not at all. I meant that the market makers are getting killed. Some of you think, So what? That's what peoples' capitalism is
all about. To which I say, You are dead wrong. Capitalism is not a zero-sum game. Believe me, you do not want these people knocked out.
You will kill the golden goose if you eliminate the market makers.

No big institution trades through the Net for size; they all use the market makers. You eliminate them or their ability to make money, and
liquidity will dry up so fast you will never get out. Shame on you who reached the conclusion that I am antidemocratic. You are missing
the point that all of us who trade or invest get hurt when traditional market players -- i.e., Goldman, Merrill, Morgan, First Boston --
get annihilated in OTC land because we need them to be able to make two-way markets. OTC is not a they-win/you-lose situation.
Don't make it into one....."

don't ya think eh...

Kiwi- We know they don't have enough gold to completly cover, they are shorts. They mostly borrow it. OK.

Hugo- Itching and pulling the trigger are very different. There must be fresh powder brought to bear on this situation. A change in sentiment. I am sharpening my aim, January looks good for me to double my PM position. Just can't decide between Pt or Au.

JP- we can see inflation and high unemployment at the same time. The short term nature of the debt will require refi or monetiztion. I think they will be forced to monetize it, due to weakess in cash/liquid positions of the creditors.

Gollum- I hope that last groan wasn't anything serious.

Sombody slap me.

Pray tell, how long can this charade last? Is it not a certainty
that, should the Fed lower rates another .25 % next week, that
it will have the effect of snuffing out the gold carry?

Back in 18 1/8 for the day end rally

What is this "ammo" of which you speak, if it is not gold it will not "carry" after 1/1/1999?

Paper tiger shorts will be achieve spontaneous consumption.

Went to the BMW dealer yesterday and asked him how's business. He said it's way down from six months ago, like by more than half. Also, notice how discount retailers like KMart are doing better than last year but the lux goods retailers are closing stores? Dropping rates may have poured hot money into the equities markets but money is not making its way into the luxury goods market. Folks are starting to buy cheap. Next they buy less. Finally, as in Japan, they buy only what they absolutely need. No one buys with debt. Even at negative interest rates, no one borrows if they're not sure they're going to be employed to pay the loan back.

Below I assign dates of past events, current conditions, and future possibilites to the deflationary depression scenario outlined in "The Great Reckoning" by James Dale Davidson, William, Lord Rees-Mogg, 1994, p. 352.

You were
Here
----- 7. Profitability declines towards more normal levels as investment matures and new output is
2/98 brought onto the market.


You were
Here
----- 8. Commodity prices decline.
4/98

You were
Here
----- 9. The farm economy goes into recession.
7/98

You were
Here
----- 10. Interest rates fall, and as they do, hot money moves into financial assets, further stimulating the
9/98 stock market.

You are
Here
----- 11. As opportunities in the real economy subside, investment is concentrated on financial assets,
12/98 leading to a stock market blow-off.

You will
be Here
----- 12. The boom is self-limiting because debt contracted at high interest rates compounds faster than
2/99? income, eventually requiring that owners of leveraged assets liquify their holdings, thus driving asset
prices down.

You will
be Here
----- 13. Real estate sags.
3/99?

You will
be Here
----- 14. Some trigger such as a credit squeeze, a major bankruptcy, fraud, or simply the slowing the real
4/99? economy reveals the overvaluation of assets.

You will
be Here
----- 15. The stock market crashes, credit contraction intensifies, the money supply implodes, and
5/99? depression ensues, with returns on previous investment falling to subnormal rates.

You will
be Here
----- 16. Real interest rate skyrocket, even as nominal rates fall, further reducing ecoconomic activity.
6/99?

You will
be Here
----- 17. Unemploment skyrockets because real wage rates rise.
8/99?

You will
be Here
----- 18. Wages and prices are cut as the system winds down.
10/99?

You will
be Here
----- 19. You have been in deflation some time.
1/2000

Looks like it might go to new highs. Oh, wait, chart is upside down.

EJ: All I've got to say about all that is, yep.

Kiwi- I know that the gold carry is fast approaching an end. But these shorts have made considerable paper profits on the way down. They may be positioning themselves for a tidal reversal. Possibly not in the metals but in another commodity. Just becase they are done exploiting the gold carry does not immedialty mean that metals will rise. My point is that gold has been disgraced, in the eyes of many investors ( not me though ) . They may in fact veiw this with the pleasure one gets for tiddly winks. A fine game. I did not mean to offend and if I did so please accept my apologies.

FRANKFURT, Germany ( AP ) -- Germany's unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in November even as the number of unemployed people edged up. Nationwide, the Labor Office reported 3.95 million people were jobless, 54,300 more than in October, when Germany reached its lowest unemployment rate -- 10.1 percent -- in two years. The seasonally adjusted rise of 4,000 jobs was above analysts' expectations. But Labor Office chief Bernhard Jagoda said the numbers did not signal a turn for the worse in the German labor market.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1d.htm

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's struggling economy showed isolated signs of improvement in November but the overall outlook remains bleak, the government said Tuesday. Domestic demand for household appliances and mini-vehicles recovered slightly, and growth in Japan's unemployment rate appeared to be easing, the Economic Planning Agency said in its monthly report on the economy. Still, the general state of the economy remained "extremely severe," an assessment that was unchanged from the previous month's report.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1c.htm
--
Woo hoo, break out the champagne glasses.

12 Days of Christmas on the Bayou
Day 1: Dear Boudreaux, Thanks for de bird in de Pear tree. I fix
it las' night with dirty rice. I doan tink de pear tree will grow
in the swamp, so I swap it for a Satsuma.

Day 2: Dear Boudreaux, You letter say you sent two turtle doves,
but all I got was two scrawny pigeons. Anyway, I mixed dem with
andouille an made some gumbo out of dem.

Day 3: Dear Boudreaux, Why doan you sent some crawfish? I'm
tired of eating dem darn birds. I gave two of dose prissy French
chickens to Marie Trahan over at Grans Bayou an fed the tird one
to my dog, Phideaux. Marie needed some sparring partners for her
fighting rooster.

Day 4: Dear Boudreaux, Mon Dieux! I tol you no more birds. Deez
four, what you call dem "calling birds" were so noisy you could
hear dem all de way to Napoleonville. I used dere necks for my
crab traps, an fed de rest of dem to de gators.

Day 5: Dear Boudreaux, You finally sent somethin useful. I like
dem golden rings, me. I hocked dem at da pawn shop in Thibodeaux
and got enuf money to fix da shaft on my shrimp boat an buy a
round for da boys at de Raisin' Cane Lounge. Merci Beaucoup!

Day 6: Dear Boudreaux, Couchon! Back to da birds, you c**nass
turkey! Poor egg suckin' Phideaux is scared to death at dem six
geeeses. He tried to eat dems eggs and dey peck de heck out ah
his snout. Dey good at eating cockroaches, though. I may stuff
one of dem wit erster dressing on Christmas day.

Day 7: Dear Boudreaux, I'm gonna wring your fool neck next time I
see you. Thibeau, da mailman, is ready to kill ya. The merde from
all dem birds is stinkin' up his mailboat. He afraid someone will
slip on dat stuff and sue him good. I let those seven swans loose
to swim on de bayou and some duck hunters from Mississippi
blasted dem out of de water. Talk to you tomorrow.

Day 8: Dear Boudreaux, Poor ole Thibeau, he had to make tree
trips on his mailboat to deliver dem 8 maids a milkin and their
cows. One of dem cows got spooked by da alligators and almost
tipped over da boat. I doan like dem shiftless maids, me no. I
tolt dem to get to work guttin fish and sweeping the shack but
dey say it wasn't in dair contract. Dey probably think they to
good ta skin nutrias I caught las night.

Day 9: Dear Boudreaux, What you trying to do Huh? Thibeau had to
borrow the Lutcher ferry to carry dem jumpin twits you call
Lords-a-Leaping across the bayou. As soon as dey gots here dey
wanted a tea break with crumpets. I doan know what dat means but
I says, *Well La Di Da. You get Chicory coffee or nuttin.* Mon
Dieu, Emile. What I'm gonna feed all dese bozos? Dey too snooty
for fried nutria, and de cows done eat my turnip greens.

Day 10: Dear Boudreaux, You got to be outs you mind! If de
mailman don't kill you, I will for sure. Today he deliver 10 half
nakid floozies from Bourbon Street. Dey said dey be *Ladies
Dancin* but dey doan act like ladies in front of dose Limey
twits. Dey almos left after one of dem got bit by a water
moccasin over by da out-house. I had to butcher 2 cows to feed
toute le monde an get toilet paper. The Sears catalog wasn't good
enuf fer dose hoity toity lord's royal behin.

Day 11: Dear Boudreaux, Where Y'at. Cheerio an pip pip. Your 11
pipers piping arrives today from the House of Blues, second
lining as dey got off de boat. We fixed snuffed goose and beef
jambalaya, finished da whiskey and we having a fais-do-do. Da
new mailman he drink a bottle of Jack Daniel an he having a good
time, yeah dancing with de floozies. Thibeau he jump off de
Sunshine Bridge yesterday screaming your name. If you get a
mysterious, ticking package in de mail, doan open it man.

Day 12: Dear Boudreaux, I sorry to tell ya but I not your true
love anymore, no. After da fais-do-do, I spent de night with
Jacque, de head piper. We decide to open a restaurant and
gentleman's club on de bayou. The floozies, pardon me, Ladies
dancing can make $20 for a table dance, and de lords can be
waiters an valet park de boats. Since de maids have no more cows
ta milk, I trained dem ta set my crab traps, watch my trotlines,
an run my shrimping business. We will probably gross a million
clams nex year.

LOS ANGELES ( AP ) -- Northrop Grumman Corp. will cut an additional 1,100 jobs next year due to Boeing Co.'s plan to slash commercial aircraft production, a spokeswoman for the nation's fourth-largest military contractor said today. Workers at Northrop's Hawthorne, Calif., plant and commercial jet parts facilities in Dallas, Milledgeville and Perry, Ga., and Stuart, Fla., were told of the new ripple-effect layoffs on Monday, Northrop Grumman spokeswoman Georgia Engle said from her Dallas office. "That is a direct result of Boeing's announcement last week," she said.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1a.htm
--
First report of a company cutting people because of another company cutting people, but Kitco called it a long time ago. Farmers have trouble, then the folks who build farm equipment, then the folks who depend on them, and so on and so on. Now what happens to the contractors who were doing work for Northrop, we can't honestly believe that they'd cut their own people before they'd cut contractors, etc, etc.

OMAHA, Neb. ( AP ) -- Pork producers are hardly grateful for this year's depressed market, but for patrons of some state charities, the low prices are translating into a trough of free food. Area hog farmers, faced with record-low pork prices, are donating some of their animals to charities and food banks for the holidays.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0k.htm
--
CRB @ 195 = NOT GOOD

I don't believe it's quite that simple that the long-term shorts who have performed gold-carry over the past 2-3 years will be able to just book profits and be done with it.

The gold carry involves anteing up with some cold hard cash ( paper ) to put down as collateral ( 1-2% if you're LTCM cronies ) , for cheap gold loan from your local gold loan friendly central wanker. As the "whiz" kids have figured out that paying for cheap gold interest while collecting better returns elsewhere is where it's at ( arbitrage...arby! ) ....until the piper arrives.

Problem is that the gold they loaned and then sold ( 14,000 tons at some estimates ) has to be delivered upon ultimately to the willing buyers...me 'n Soros included. While the price of gold keeps dropping everything is honky-dory as it "costs" less to buy back the gold to repay the loan. Now gold stabilises, all the players are sitting around the table waiting for someone to blink because they know that they can't all get out at once. Can you imagine what it will be like when just few of these players come onto the market looking to find their cheap gold.

Yesterday, someone blinked and bought 1000 contracts, that's about 100,000 ounces and we had a 5 dollar move in 20 minutes. It takes little or no imagination to see what will happen when a few of them really make a break for it.....they cannot all get out, the gold market will lock up.

You can't sell what you don't have, and if you are stupid enough to do so, you must BUY at some point....so who will DELIVER, please. I want my gold like it says on this piece of paper?

Q: They tell us the global economic crisis began with the fall of the Thai currency. What does a faraway currency have to do with me anyway?

A: Plenty.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn12.htm

Nem,not much of a rally

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Before making any mutual-fund investment plans for 1999, take a long look at the strange patterns that exist in the financial markets nearing the end of 1998. Wide gaps have opened in charts of domestic stocks vs. foreign stocks, big stocks vs. small stocks, growth stocks vs. value stocks, and top-quality bonds vs. riskier "junk" and emerging markets bonds.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn11.htm
--
Yep, quite interesting.

This was stolen...er I mean taken from the USAgold SITE...fwiw...

USAGOLD ( 12/8/98; 12:28:28MDT - Msg ID:1223 )
In the two paragraphs toward the end of the previous post...
Where the name "Canon" appears substitute "Bryan"....One of these days I'm going to get an editor....

USAGOLD ( 12/8/98; 12:21:37MDT - Msg ID:1222 )
AUSTRALIA'S TOP GOLD MINING COMPANY SQUARES ENORMOUS SHORT
POSITION
I have received a private e-mail of great interest and importance from one of our fellow goldmeisters in
Australia. According to a report authored by A. Canon Bryan for an e-mail newsletter service, the
gigantic Autralian mining consortium ( number one in Australia and number ten globally ) -- Normandy
Mining -- has squared its 4.1 million ounce short position.

Says Bryan, "It all has to do with a chap named De Crespigny ( pronounced duh-crap-nee, I'm not
kiddin' ) - CEO of Normandy - who has been painted as the kingpin of the mining industry Down
Under, but not necessarily in a good way. Like Bill
Gates, De Crespigny has his thumbs dipped in every possible plumb pie on the Pan Australian frontier.
He has a lot of muscle and he likes to flex it often. He has an uncanny reputation for foisting his
uncared-for aggression towards all those around him.

I have always felt that a man such as Robert Champion De Crespigny would be most definitely be in
the know with respect to all things golden, including the direction of its price. Realizing a giant short
position is a clear signal to me that Mr. De Crespigny is a bull on the yellow metal. All this is to say
nothing of actual physical ramifications that this acquisition has on the market place. We're talking
about 127.5 tonnes, folks."

"The timing seemed rather providential for Normandy." says Bryan. "I chalked it up to brilliant foresight
but perhaps there was more at hand. I find that the background of this story, as with most Australian
corporate strategy, leaves more questions than answers; the only unmistakable point being that De
Crespigny has stepped forward and proclaimed his bullish stance. Can the rest of the herd be far
behind?"

USAGOLD NOTE: This interesting report follows on the heels of a meeting in London recently
between Anglogold, Barrick and other producers on gold hedging operations. There was some sort of
gauzy announcement about more transparency but we have been left for the most part wondering what
went on in foggy Londontown that day. Don't forget, as well, the rumor about a single purchase at the
open yesterday of 1000 gold contracts. At one point that had moved the market upward $5 even
though the sale represented only 3 tons of gold! This gives you an idea what might happen if a
scramble among the mining companies were to begin in earnest.

In that same story Canon mentions the Barrick hedge book of roughly 9 million ounces. If the Canon
story is true, the DeCrespigny decision could be an extremely important bullish development in the gold
market.

"I have always contended that it would take a momentous and very visible event on the part of the
mining industry itself to spark a shift in the sensibilities of its following from bearish to bullish," says
Canon.

Perhaps this is it. To be sure the gold mining industry will take note. I wouldn't want to be the last
passenger off the Gold Hedge Titanic.

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 8

-- TOTALS
Gold 831,048 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 78,095,853 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 80,344 + 262 short tons

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Corporate purchasing executives expect the economy to continue growing in 1999, picking up steam as the year progresses, according to survey results released today. Sixty-eight percent of the manufacturing executives polled by the National Association of Purchasing Management said they expect their companies' revenues to increase an average 9 percent next year, while 22 percent expect them to stay the same and 10 percent predict a decline of 8.8 percent. Overall, the executives said they expected a 5.2 percent increase in revenues for the year, lagging slightly behind the 7 percent estimated for 1998. The leather goods, electronic, plastics and chemicals sectors are expected to see the most improvement.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1e.htm
--
This really is good news.

I gues I am a tiddly winks, I'm only good for about tree contracts next year. But every moment that gold does not rise, gives them the upper hand. My point is that many people need to start blinking, in response to the same series of events. These large investor corporations have changed the way gold is viewed. Fresh powder, and a change in sentiment is required for gold to move. The sooner the better. They are unwinding and will pull their profits to a new gambit, unless a sudden unexpected trend takes them by surprise. Those holding the paper contracts for delivery will be met with default and no gold. I may be slow, but I don't buy gold on paper. I buy gold with money I won't need for a very long time, and hold it as a security blanket against my paper investments.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981208/k6.html

to get.....thousands showed up....it was a three day show....we almost sold out on the first day.......forget what spot prices are the sheep are waking up .....you have been warned

http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_231000/231160.stm

A power failure has caused severe disruption in San Francisco, creating traffic chaos, halting international flights into the airport and stopping many trains.

If the funds were unwinding by now the POG would not be under $300.

For short funds to unwind requires them to BUY, large buying makes the price go UP. Large selling makes the price go down. Please explain how think the funds maybe unwinding their short position, without fresh selling and the price remains stable.

Seems to me the folks having the trouble are the longs of gold not the shorts. However, as deflationary as everrything seems to be gold is holding but has that feeling like a $10 drop could be triggered at any moment.

Can't they use their paper profits to buy the same gold mines they have starved out of existence? Or can they trade the paper profits for paper gold, or oil and convert to gold as commodities rise. I know that this cannot work if everyone wants the real metal at an instant, but they may find a way to maneuver in a paper market, finding something that rises faster to pay the piper. Believe me, I don't think they will be sucessful either, but they don't seem to be playing on the same field as we think. I hope they take it in the shorts ( no pun intended ) . If I was Gates, Soros, or Perot, I would make them really flinch; but I'm not. This is going to happen from a smaller investor size that will take time to mount the offensive and give them time to back out. While at the same time releiving those smaller investors of their money. They must have an exit strategy...or they are stupid.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_230000/230221.stm

Do you realize what you are doing?! You are pissing off the "Leader of the Free World," "The Last Remaining Superpower," "The Most Powerful Nation on Earth," "Leader of the New World Order," "The Guarantor of The World Peace," etc, etc.

That's it! The exalted "Bubba the Magnificent" and his hench-woman Reno, "The Butcher ( oops the Victor ) of Waco" will deal with you now.

Yield now!, or face the consequences!!! The streets will flow with the blood of the non-believers.

Two gold Bulls boarded a flight out of N.Y. to Chicago. One sat in the window seat, the other sat in the middle seat. Just before takeoff a gold Bear got on and took the aisle seat next to the Bulls. He kicked off his shoes wiggled his toes and was settling in when the Bull in the window seat said "I think I'll get up and get a coke."

"No problem," said the gold Bear. "I'll get it for you." While he was gone, the long picked up the short's shoe and spit in it. When the Bear returned with the coke the other long said, "That looks good I think I'll have one too." Again the Bear obligingly went to fetch it and while he was gone the other Bull picked up the other shoe and spit in it.

The Bear returned and they all sat back and enjoyed the flight to Chicago. As the plane was landing the Bear slipped his feet into his shoes and knew immediately what had happened.

"How long must this go on?" the Bear asked. "This enmity between us investors? This hatred? This animosity? This spitting in shoes and peeing in cokes?"

Good work

The deflationary vortex

is widening, expanding, devouring

gathering strength

Haiku II

In this economic climate

raise your interest rate

to match the American's

Haiku III

As a measure

to stimulate spending,

raise your interest rate

The Frowning Buddha

He looks down with disdain

upon the Japanese politician

for his myopic thinking

Monex is doing a loss leader to get its hooks into a very rapidly growing, unsophisticated stream of money; Y2Ker's looking for gold as a hedge. The people who respond to the advertisement will be gently lead from bullion purchases to the trading desk and then to margins. When, not if, they lose money - even get margin called - "Oh, well I guess you weren't so lucky there ..", "You will need to send us a check to cover the call..". Around and around we go, where it stops NOONE KNOWS not even Monex.

All's fair in love and war, right RJ? And all perfectly legal as well. I never impute illegality to Monex in any way. But, friends, they ARE in it for themselves not for you, regardless of what they might say. ( When was the last time someone else wanted to make money for you? )

Buyer beware. As always. Been there, been done by that, got this t-shirt. Says right here: "I'm sure we will see a significant move up very shortly." on the front and "I'm sure we will see a significant move down very shortly" on the back.

~~~~~

BTW Gunrunner is quite an OK guy who had a similar experience to mine, only worse.

~~~~~

BTW, the guy I traded through was sure silver was going up, up and up from here back in August/September. Silver is still where it was then. "Oh, well I guess you weren't so lucky this time.."

Trading costs were also increased to such an extent that there was no way I could make any money on small moves. Se la vi! A PURE coincidence I'm sure.

I lost $20,000.

~~~~~

Flame me if you want to, I don't care one whit.

404 me if you care to, I'll go somewhere else where the air is free.

Its just that RJ, last night, justified trolling here because "Monex supports this site with advertising .." and seems to feel that the rules do not apply to Monex ( no soliciting by businesses, read the guidelines ) .

~~~~~

Flame on!

Dude LOL!!!

I pass a stone

and it is gold

All: I think he puts it all together better than anyone else in congress.

http://www.creators.com/opinion/pundits/sno.asp

One of my colleagues was boasting to me about how much the markets had gone up in the last week. I said, 'Looks like WJC will be impeached'. His response was: 'Looks that way, doesn't it. If WJC is impeached the market may crash, and the American people will be very upset -- at Congress, not at the President'. I thought -- perhaps, perhaps not.

I didn't say anything. In retrospect, what I should have said: 'If this is what it takes to bring honor back to the highest office in the land, so be it'.

I think part of the problem is that the 'real dirt' is known to many Washington insders, but few want it to come out in the open. If more scandals do not come out, it may well look like the Republicans are the 'bad guys', not the president.

We did survive the Nixon impeachment. We will survive this, sadder but wiser.

Now, what really worries me is the talk about ending the 'independent counsel' law next year. Yes -- it is painful to go through the impeachment process. But think what it would be like if Janet Reno was handling even more.

I suspect the end of the independent cousel will be the end our our democratic government, as then there then will be no effective way to bring down a runaway president.

where did you get such a horrid feeling like that from?

I get the feeling a sharp $10 up move is imminently poised beneath many sorry derrieurs....hope it's not yours?

a.k.a The Great Consumer and Taxpayer Rip-off of the Late Nineteen Nineties.

I know what it is,
The world has gone
On a hunger strike
To protest the robbery
Of it's Gold....
That would explain
The sixty percent plunge
In the price of hog
Which is not to be confused
With the price of pork
Which in turn shouldn't be confused
With the price of ham
And the valiant farmer
"Outstanding in his field"
Is left holding
The "pig...in a sack"

Reasons for picking that date-- 1.Would do it now, but I would incur tax liability for 1998. 2.Too many orders being issued by the Feds such as "Know Your Customer", etc. I want to take the IRA while it is still legal to do so. 3.Want to buy as much Gold as I can while the price is around $300. If you wait until a Y2K panic is underway, you may have to pay a lot more for the Gold. 4.Make hay while the sun is shining. Envy's hurricane warnings are still highly operational. Good luck and good fortune!

This happened in 1930's when the US Gov. 'revalued gold' ie - devalued the us $ from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. They did this to expand the number of US dollars in order to recapitalize the economy.

The US$ has been expanded tremendously by the expansion of US$ denominated bonds issued by US Governemts and Corporations. This expansion has not yet been accounted for in terms of gold's 'value'. The amount of gold has not changed much but the amount of $ 'things' has exploded. The end result will be a repudiation of the US$ which will launch the price of gold into the stratosphere ( because no one will want to trade gold for US$'s ) .

Two things will do this: the Euro AND Y2K. Specificly the Euro will give choice where there was none ( specificly a currency which has not yet been debased ) and Y2K will destroy confidence in the continuation of today's financial and economy expectations into the future ( effecting a destruction of all bonds as these are sold in an attempt to salvage something of their former value while interest rates soar ) . Since the are currently about US$20 TRILLION in bonds issued verses approximately US$4 TRILLION worth of 'cash credits' in the US$ system, the effect of bonds crashing will be the death blow which will wipe out the dollar's value, and hence escalate the price of gold in US$ terms.

1999 will be one for the books. The only problem will be that no one will care to read the books after 2000 arrives .. they will be to busy just trying to survive.

before "booking" paper profits they must BUY gold to get out...I don't see many folks buying gold...causality can't be denied.

Please explain how 14,000 tons short will be settled without some upmove in the POG.

My neighbor took a 230 # hog to market today and came home with $34.50 so that his wife could go to local pizza joint and bring home a $26.50 pizza! Hog wild world we live in!

All: I think we need to seriously consider that gold bullion may drop fairly soon. I am more and more worried that commodity prices may be in free fall. Then -- the price of gold in US dollars can drop, even with gold rising in strength relative to commodities.

The drop in commodity prices is occuring despite a dropping US dollar.

Which effect is going to dominate? The bullish effect on gold of a dropping dollar, or the bearish effect of plummeting commodity prices?

We must be on our toes, regardless.

And -- to think I bought some more gold equities today, because of pending impeachment proceedings? Am I to regret this?

Drifting......
But this post might have been the reason for the jump
___I don't quite know what just happened , but I think it's in the top drawer
rb

Allen ( USA ) : I would add one thing to your post about the 30's. Gold stocks did not really take off until after the deflationary crash of the stock markets -- and then it was because FDR wanted to reflate the dollar. He devalued the dollar when he confiscated gold, and raised the price of gold in 1932 ( 1933? ) . Until then the gold mines languished. Hard to make a profit when the government fixes the price of gold.

During the deflationary collapse, however, gold started to rise relative to commodity prices, just as it is doing right now.

We must be patient -- and make sure we are always on the right side of the market turmoil.

I have received a private e-mail of great interest and importance from one of our fellow goldmeisters in
Australia. According to a report authored by A. Canon Bryan for an e-mail newsletter service, the
gigantic Autralian mining consortium ( number one in Australia and number ten globally ) -- Normandy
Mining -- has squared its 4.1 million ounce short position.

Energy prices collapsed anew Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as forecasts for mild weather and continued indecision from world oil producers conspired to keep prices near 12-year lows. On other markets, pork and soybean futures also fell sharply, helping push the Bride Commodity Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities down to a 21-year low. Natural gas futures prices gave back their sharp gains from a day earlier -- and more -- after the National Weather Service predicted temperatures in the nation's largest heating regions next week will once again rise above normal. Natural gas prices have been hurt by mild North American weather that has allowed storage levels to rise close to capacity as consumers ignore their thermostats for the time being. Prices have yet to recover from last year's mild winter across the Western Hemisphere that sharply reduced natural gas demand. Crude and its byproducts retreated after a roller-coaster session of price swings, as market participants digested conflicting reports out of a meeting of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, whose membership controls much of the world's oil reserves.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn20.htm
--
Nothing wrong with oil that a good Ice Age wouldn't fix.

CARACAS, Venezuela ( AP ) -- The Venezuelan stock market soared a dazzling 22.2 percent Tuesday as investors expressed relief over President-elect Hugo Chavez's conciliatory remarks after a bitter electoral campaign. ``He knows he won't be able to solve our problems through populism, interventionism or fatalism,'' said economist Pedro Palma, adding that Chavez's statements since winning the presidency Sunday have been ``very balanced.'' The business community has long seen the former coup leader as a villain, and remains concerned that his call for a new constitution could divert attention from Venezuela's most pressing problem: the economic tailspin caused by slumping oil prices.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1f.htm

I confess upfront this is not an analysis de rigueur. Nonetheless, it really does not require a doctoral thesis to compare the relative investment merits of 'Dreams' vs 'Reality' at the current market levels of each. Specifically, I refer to the stock prices of Internet stocks - whose market caps are well beyond the financial ionosphere, whereas blue-chip veteran gold mining stocks are groveling near their lows.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky120798.html ( remove "en" )

Tuesday, December 8, 1998

Venezuelan stock market soars after Chavez victory
CARACAS, Venezuela ( AP ) -- The Caracas stock market skyrocketed this morning as president-elect Hugo Chavez's conciliatory comments eased investor fears that he would roll back free market economic policies.  The market leaped 18.5 percent on the first day it was open since the former coup leader won a landslide election victory Sunday. The market was closed Monday because of a holiday. "Investors have recovered some of their confidence in the country," said Leonardo Quintero, a broker at Caracas-based BanFederal.  Since his election, Chavez has said he would cut Venezuela's bloated government payroll, reduce the fiscal deficit and honor the country's $21 billion foreign debt.  The 44-year-old former paratrooper is a messiah to millions of poor people who believe he will punish the corrupt, wipe out misery and return their oil-rich country to the days when it was dubbed "Saudi Venezuela."  But those expectations may be too high for Chavez's own good. "People think they are going to start eating better and living better on Feb. 3," the day after Chavez is sworn in, said historian Guillermo Moron. "But that's not true."  Hours after his victory, Chavez stood on a terrace overlooking thousands of roaring supporters as floodlights lit the midnight air. "The resurrection of Venezuela has begun, and nothing and no one can stop it," he bellowed over loudspeakers.  Chavez, who has never held public office, is inheriting a country with an economy in shambles and a political establishment that views him as a villain because of his 1992 attempt to overthrow the government. "Depressed oil prices and high un- and under-employment mean that the next government will face some very difficult problems, and it will take political skill, courage and resolution to deal with them successfully," U.S. Ambassador John Maisto said.  The economy went into a tailspin earlier this year when oil prices hit a 12-year low. Venezuela relies on oil for 75 percent of its export revenue and over half the government budget, which has been slashed by $2 billion this year.  Next year isn't expected to be much better. Oil prices are likely to remain low.
 Yet Chavez has already announced that he wants to boost the current minimum monthly wage of $175, which is barely half of what workers need to care for a family of five.  The question is: Where will the money come from?  Many workers are employed by the government. Its 1.3 million-person payroll is one of the most bloated in Latin America.  Chavez says he wants to streamline the bureaucracy, but laid-off workers won't find new jobs if the economy doesn't turn around. More than half of Venezuela's population of 23 million already is mired in poverty.  Venezuela has Latin America's highest annual inflation rate at 30 percent. Looming in the immediate future is intense pressure to devalue of the currency, the bolivar, and the possibility of a new banking crisis. The financial system nearly collapsed in 1994-95 and required a $7 billion bailout.  Venezuela's new head of state could also encounter political troubles. His leftist Patriotic Pole coalition won a plurality in Nov. 8 congressional elections, but opposing parties still control a majority of seats.  Chavez also wants to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution and possibly dissolve Congress. That will revive many of the hostilities that erupted during the campaign, which polarized the country between rich and poor and between the Patriotic Pole and Venezuela's two traditional parties.  Chavez will have to use his famed charisma to persuade Venezuelansto show patience. "The rear-guard stabs at reform haven't gotten anywhere because nobody has been able to capture the trust of the Venezuelan people," said political consultant Eric Ekvall. "If anyone has this quality, it's Hugo Chavez." http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/dec8_caracasmarket.html

The hedge funds are being allowed to unwind their
position and pay off their gold loans by paying
CASH....Paper Money.

They are getting the CASH by selling good stuff like
European Bonds. According to PEI, this flow of
funds is going through the S & P Futures as CALLS
in the name of the HEDGE fund....

If hedge funds know that the S&P futures are going to
go up like a rocket, do you think that they just might be
able to make some money on that process.????

In other words, the hedge funds are being helped out
( bailed out ) by the unwinding process it's self.

According to PEI, this is why the miracle 2 month
recovery in the DOW has occured.

Rigged? Bet your sweet arse.

They can take paper profits on the trades they made with the money obtained from the gold loan. These could be used to buy controlling interests in the mines or whatever before the gold loan was cleared. If the POG does not rise in that time frame then they do indeed have a net profit. If they fail to to an orderly unwinding of the gold loans well then they have a problem, unless they sell these positions to somone else. It amounts to the rate at which they are required to cover, and how they rid themselves of the gold loan positions. If they were smart they would have been rolling these loans over as the POG descended leaving someone else holding the bag.

After a nearly two-month rally that saw the NASDAQ 100 index rally 50% and the semiconductor stocks a stunning 80%, unmistakable and ominous storm clouds are again forming around US financial markets. Importantly, despite a global crisis with Japan and Asian economies falling deeper into depression and noticeable weakening in European economies, the dollar is again under heavy selling pressure. This should be interpreted as a clear warning that the situation here at home is not the bastion of health that is claimed by many. After trading at almost 150 yen and 180 marks in August, the dollar, after a feeble rally from the October lows, trades today at 120 yen and 167 marks. Going into year-end, dollar weakness could be a problem for US markets. [... EDITED FOR SPACE ...] The evidence of real trouble is everywhere. Today the CRB commodity index trades at a near 21-year low. Energy prices are in a virtual collapse with crude oil trading at $11, a twelve-year low, and the price of natural gas has dropped by almost one-third over a period of only several weeks. Copper today traded at a eleven-year low and the price of hot-rolled steel is the lowest in decades as imports flood the market. Also this week, we had the National Purchasing Managers index report the 6th straight month of deterioration in its lowest reading in almost two years. Reports of layoffs also escalate as manufacturers throughout the country are forced to cut production. Over 90,000 layoffs were announced in October, and for the year, job losses are running at the highest rate since 1993.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/tice120598.html ( remove "en" )
--
Note that I edited out a paragraph, recommend you read the entire article.

The perpetrator is going to investigate the crime. Why are Clinton mafia announcing this. There is no political advantage. It sounds bullish for the POG.

Maybe these devious SOB's are trying to suck us poor masochistic gold bulls in one more time before they drive down the price. With the impeachment vote coming up the last thing they need is for the price of gold to be running up.

P.S. Tolerant1 thanks for the posting. Namaste'

There's much talk that the so called "January Effect" ( where stocks drop in price juct before the end of the new year only to rise right after in the new year ) is happening in December.

I say the "January Effect" no longer hold true for the "Dow" stocks.

However, my gut feeling tells me the "January Effect" still holds true for commodities, preciious metals, resource and gold stocks.

Makes sense cause the Spin Doctors aren't saying a thing about it.

In that case...the gold is G.O.N.E....GONE...GONE...in effect already sold....n'est pas?

Clinton needs a SCAPEGOAT. I've said this before on this forum. An investigation only confirms what many of us in Kitco have been saying all along.

"The stock market bubble that is filled with a whole lotts CaCa is about to burst right next to a fan."

Time to sharpen your claws and put on your ballet slippers because we're getting ready to head into the end game. The equity investors know the game is up now, there's been enough bad news, and a good shake up in the equity markets this summer. This last run in the market has made everyone aware that the equities are bloated, and now the Bulls are all playing the same game, who will run to the exits first. The chips have already shifted hands from smart to, well, not as smart, and now it's just a matter of time. The past few years have been tough on bears, any bear reckless enough to get in the Bull's way, but this time it's different, because there really is a problem. This time the Bull market has a reason to end besides that it's just out of control, this time the smart money has gone. C'ya. This time it's only going to get worse as investors watch profits fall, people lose their jobs, markets dry up, etc. The trend is in place, deflation is coming home. As a bear, I'm excited, because the writing is finally on the wall, now it's just a matter of timing. Oh, or the DOW could push 15000. *grin*

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

.....that a year from now............

Bye bye Clinton................

I think I will "break out" a cigar in celebration.........

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.jpg

---
Major Power Outage Strikes SF, Northern California
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19981208/ts/outage_1.html

Power Outage Hits SF Bay Area
http://www.wired.com/news/news/technology/story/16709.html

SF Blackout: Y2K Dress Rehearsal
http://www.wired.com/news/news/technology/story/16710.html

Got this from newsgroup:
There has been a major regional power grid failure in San Francisco
and the peninsula.

This happened when PG&E detected an out-of-frequency power mis-match
from the inter-tie, and that triggered the cascading shutdown of two
power plants and several dozen sub stations.

This affects ALL of the City of San Francisco and parts of San Mateo
county including the airport ( SFO ) . Arriving flights are being
handled by backup generator, there are no departing flights. Jetways,
computers, monitors, metal detectors, x-ray machines are all down.

For all of you pollyannas out there here is the result of this ONE
regional incident:

Power out to ALL of San Francisco's 250K plus residents and
businesses. 92K on the peninsula in San Mateo county.

High Rise buildings have no power, water or sewage disposal.

The financial district is completely shut down.

The mayor's spokesperson called the result "chaos" since it happened
during the morning commute. Mayor's office is telling everyone to go
home and/or not come in to work. Stay out of the city and off of the
streets.

Emergency vehicles are having a very difficult time responding to
calls since the traffic is gridlocked.

The brain surgeon's at the Pacific Stock Exchange have NO power
generator backup. All stock trading is via computer, so the pacific
coast stock exchange is SHUT DOWN until further notice. Radio reports
indicated that some people were attempting to haul portable gas
generators up the stairs to power certain equipment. There is no
generator for the building as a backup. ( Darwin award winner for
contingency planning ) .

All traffic lights out in the city, resulting in multiple accidents.
Every meter-maid in the city is out directing traffic.

Every truck company from San Francisco Fire is out on elevator
rescues.. over 50 at last count... many of them in hi-rise buildings
at floor 40 ( nice walk ) .

Bay area rapid transit is totally disabled. They have lost complete
communications on their system due to a computer controlled trunking
radio system that can't handle the power failure and has ceased to
function. Can't talk to trains, so no trains are running. Also
electrical powered so no BART in San Francisco.

Many backup generators are not working and have failed at start-up.

Street cars are electrical powered and many have stopped blocking
whole intersections, including cable cars.

The subway system is non-operational, and everyone has been evacuated
from underground.

There are not enough buses to handle the flow of people.

CalTrain ( commuter rail line ) is operating a slow speed, due to
failure of the lights and gate crossings on the peninsula.

Two TV stations were off the air, one is back, but the NBC affiliate
is still off.

PG& E estimates time to restore everyone, re-start the power plants
that were taken offline and get the city back up will extend into
early evening ( power went out at 08:17 a.m. in the middle of the
commute ) .

They still have not identified the original cause of the frequency
instability.

So there you have it.. one small incident and it's effect.

Learn from this folks.. it's going to be NASTY out there in 2K

I'm watching live coverage of the chaos on the SF CBS affiliate ( on my
satellite dish ) . Power is still not back on, as of 12:17, and commuters
are stranded. Although they've been told to go home, traffic is
gridlocked, buses are at full capacity ( and gridlocked ) , and the
underground "BART" system is halted. This last point means that tens of
thousands of commuters to the other side of the Bay may be stuck in SF
tonight, unless power is restored.

Some reports are that power will be restored early this afternoon.

( Flash: Energy Secretary Richardson, in the area for a press conference
with Intel on rad-hard chips, is denying any links to Y2K. Really. He's
talking about reports that Y2K had nothing to do with the outage. )

On a positive note, this event will be a timely reminder for many to
install backup generators, emergency lighting, etc. And more people will
put "bug out bags" in their vehicles. This will not help long term
situations, of course.

Thx, but I'll take your advice anyway... I've been wrong so many times now.

But then, I really need to be right once don't I??? In that the POG will move way way way up one day. And then, all my past mistakes in short term forecasting will be totally forgotten ...wiped away.

Gonna catch Moneyline to see the last SPIN news.

Yes. It is gone. It was borrowed and then sold immediately.
Then the funds were used to buy some wildly speculative
stuff like Russian Bonds at 40 %. Now the original
CB'S that loaned the gold are settling for paper ( CASH ) .

You got to ask youself how the hedge funds will get their
money out of the S & P future calls.....That is the question.

RR & WJC have the answer. They will buy S & P futures as
the hedge funds sell. This is then nothing more than a
total bailout of the hedge funds who gambled with the gold
that was loaned to them by the CB'S.

Bubba says: Oh boy! 50 billion in a slush fund that can only
be drawn on by the Secretary of the Treasury & the President!!!
The first yes man that I find will become Secretary of the
Treasury. Thus, the meteorotic rise of RR to Secretary Of
The Treasury. WHAT FLOATS TO THE TOP?

Trouble is, 50 B is not enough. But a gradual unwinding
will give WJC T I M E.... The stock market will continue
on with it's winning ways, and time will pass. The Impeachment
process may well be a thing of the past when all the chickens
come home to roost. So, more trouble for WJC even AFTER
he is excused for his flagrant misconduct. Bubba would love
to leave the mess for the Republicnas to clean up, and then
blame the mess on them.

[...] So what is happening to profits in America's 'miracle economy'? Far from rising exponentially, they have been dropping for the past year and are now declining at an annual rate of 6 per cent. Margins are being squeezed by over-capacity, rising employment costs and a deceleration in productivity growth. As Ian Harwood of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson put it at his firm's seminar last week: 'The Q3 year-on-year profits decline is the first since the early 1990s recession and - if history is any guide - will produce a sharp economic slowdown, especially with the record corporate financing gap. Already capital expenditure plans are being cut, lay-offs are rising and new hiring slowing.' Mr Harwood's colleague, Albert Edwards, expanded on this theme. His view is that, price stability having been attained, global markets will have to get used to an 'Ice Age' in which equity prices will be driven entirely by earnings. [...]

http://reports.guardian.co.uk/articles/1998/12/7/37088.html

I think not. He will annoint himself as KING of America by executive order after his great victory over impeachment and the coming chaos of Y2K. Heil Klinton!{;- ) )

If these oh so clever funds ( LTCM ) have been rolling over the gold loans on the way down...who is stooopid enough to buy them up?

The fact remains there is somewhere between 8-14K tons of gold loans that will have to be repaid into a rising gold market.

The funds are not out of their short gold postions yet, believe me. Movements such as the Yen in Oct. , 20% in a matter of days, will signal funds unwinding gold loans....for now they sit tight waiting for the call from RR or AG when to put on a few more shorts to keep the game going.

The wise ones have snuck out already, every time one leaves the remainder have to take up a little more of the slack e.g. yesterday's poop-up.....until there is only the unfortunate few to have their carcasses swinging.

Boy I bet if you were sitting on a huge gold short you'd be cursing that f#$%ing Aussie miner wouldn't ya, longj?

How laughable, yes?
...so many haiku posers
syllables of fools!

Daniel. 2, 31-45

You Saw, O king, and behold, a great image.
This image, mighty and of exceeding brightness, stood before you., and its appearance was frightening.
The head of this image was of fine gold, its breast and arms of silver, its belly and thighs of bronze, its legs of iron, its feet partly of iron and partly of clay. As you looked, a stone was cut out by no human hand, and it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces; then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors; and the wind carried them away, so that not a trace of them could be found. But the stone that struck the image became a great mountain and filled the whole earth."
"This was the dream; now we will tell the king its interpretation. You O king, the king of kings, to whom the God of heaven has given the kingdom, the power, and the might, and the glory, and into whose hand he has given, wherever they dwell, the sons of men, the beasts of the field, and the birds of the air, making you rule over them all -- you are the head of gold. After you shall arise another kingdom inferior to you, and yet a third kingdom of bronze, which shall rule over all the earth. And there shall be a forth kingdom, strong as iron, because iron breaks to pieces and shatters all things; and like iron which crushes, it shall break and crush all these. And as you saw the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom; but some of the firmness of iron shall be in it, just as you saw iron mixed with the miry clay. And as the toes of the feet were partly iron and partly clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong and partly brittle. As you saw the iron mixed with miry clay, so they will mix with one another in marriage, but they will not hold together, just as iron does not mix with clay. And in the days of those kings the God of heaven will set up a kingdom which shall never be destroyed, nor shall its sovereignty be left to another people. It shall break in pieces all these kingdoms and bring them to an end, and it shall stand for ever; just as you saw that a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand, and that it broke in pieces the iron, the bronze, the clay, the silver, and the gold. A great God has made known to the king what shall be hereafter. The dream is certain, and its interpretation sure."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Perchance;
--a stone was cut from a mountain by no human hand = silicon chip

--it smote the image on its feet of iron and clay, and broke them in pieces = technology crash

--then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver, and the gold, all together were broken in pieces, and became like the chaff of the summer threshing floors = modern society dissipating

--the feet and toes partly of potter's clay and partly of iron, it shall be a divided kingdom = Europe

--mix with one another in marriage , but they will not hold together = ECU failure

Today on CNBC they were talking about how brokers where receiving complaints about the wild activity in internet stocks.

It seems that many have already been badly burned = some have used market orders which were placed when the stocks were only $10 a share only to find out that they paid $90 -$95 a share and a few moments later would be trading at $35 - NASDAK said they would be looking into it and reminded brokers to suggest limit orders to there customers.

CNBC seemed to blame the online brokers and there novice traders for the problem - this might be the signal that the bubble is about to burst.

- cjk -


http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_231000/231006.stm

http://www.cnet.com/Content/Voices/Steinberg/022697/index.html

by Don Steinberg

"The list of legitimate things to fear about the year 2000 is daunting: the choosing of a cabinet for the Quayle administration, nonprescription Prozac, the Beatles' Anthology 14: The Ringo Sessions--plus all the apocalypse-freaks who missed out on Waco will be performing random sacrifices on the streets. But the threat that computers won't be able to handle the year-number rollover to 2000? This is not glowing too hot on my radar screen.

Sure, I've heard the Nostradamus-like forecasts of doom concerning the so-called millennium bug. On January 1, 2000 ( for some reason they'll be delivering U.S. Mail on a national holiday ) , you'll get a bill from your credit card company that says you owe 99-years' worth of interest. Oh my! ( Truth be told, that would represent a bank error in my favor. )

By some estimates there are 180 billion lines of computer code that could explode on that fateful New Year's Day, potentially bringing industry and commerce to a halt and dimming the nation's enthusiasm about having a single bowl game that once and for all determines the national college football champion. But I have a problem with the year 2000
problem: I think it's overrated.

According to the research team of Scully and Mulder, the situation traces back to some COBOL programmers in the early 1960s who, apparently tripping on LSD supplied by a secret order of alien mystics, pretended years had only two digits. They invented the mm/dd/yy format for storing dates and coded it into a lot of software that ran on a primitive type of computing device described in Babylonian cave paintings as a "mainframe."

The first time I saw a two-digit year, I naively said to my third grade
teacher, "Hey, the year isn't 74, it's 1974." And she explained that the 19 part is silent, like the p in pterodactyl. Cool! Actually, she said the 19 is
"understood." After all, it's been 19 for who knows how long; why
bother repeating that obvious part over and over? It would be like
saying "disgraced former president Nixon" every time. You just have to say "Nixon." Being an imaginative third grader, I replied, "But what if in some crazy-world scenario, it isn't 19?" And my teacher, who was really quite old, sighed and said, "Ah, I wouldn't worry too much about it."

I surmise this is how the COBOL programmers felt back then. When someone in the computer room asked, "Hey, what about the year 2000?" they replied with knowing winks as if to say,

"I'm going to be living on a ranch in New Mexico collecting
Social Security by then, pal." We now know how sadly mistaken they were about the future of Social Security

Or maybe they were smarter than we think and brilliantly built into
mainframe systems a sort of alternative pension plan. Imagine: you turn 65 in the year 2000, and suddenly you're the only one on the planet who has a clue how to make Union Carbide's inventory system functional. Then you utter the magic words: "how much is it worth to you?"
Already their plan seems to be working. An entire industry has sprung up to help corporations elude the 2000 problem. However, despite the immense profiteering potential to be realized by whipping up more desperation, I've decided to offer my own expert advice on the subject for free."

Where are the shoppers?
Perhaps the have turned to santaclaus.com - cjk -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_231000/231006.stm

If the gold is gone and CB's were repaid in cash, wouldn't they have to announce gold sales? I've heard that CB gold sale announcments at imminent. Maybe they will be announcing these sales - of course the announcment won't mention this.

Following is an update on gold. Andy Smith mentions that due to gold revaluations, CB's will most likely sell.


http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2557529047-6ba

This will go into effect March 8, 1999 if Congress does not stop it. This is basically an FDIC regulation requiring banks to know the sources of their customers income and report any activity that is suspicious. Your government in action-- http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/3279

cheap for shorting, and in spite of that the price is not going down, that it is setting up an explosion to the upside ( when, of course a multitude on this site are negative ) in prices when it's done?????
Of course we could just sit here and complain about it, or realize what is getting ready to happen!

Are you going to be ready when it does???

As I understand it, banks would have to monitor and report any unusual outflows of money from your account. For example, if you made 3 $5,000 purchases of Gold coins or just decided to convert your assets from paper to "things", you could be investigated.

Interesting. I've always thought it also interesting that the "star falling from heaven" in Revelation that poisons a third of the waters is named "Wormwood" of which the Russian translation for the word is Chernobyl.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/981209/world/world3.html

Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.77. The 233 day moving average is 29.24

http://www.uniontrib.com/news/uniontrib/sun/news/news_1n6year.html

XAU/Spot Ratio = .225. The 233 day moving average is .248

I probably would curse a bit. Fortunately, though I am about as long as you can imagine in the gold market. I almost don't even think of it as a trade-able, more of a gold and hold. I still think that they can trade paper for paper all day. Until the dollar becomes suspect. These folks may be using the FX markets to move profits before the dollar tanks. Then paying back their positions with a just in time exchange for a paper bay back of the cash equivalent of the gold loan. Remember they know gold is money. If gold went to $500 an ounce and they paid the cash equivalent for the amount of ounces I think they would not be required to deliver gold.

Don't get me wrong though, I think that this market manipulation and the paper gold instruments that are responsible for it have really screwed up the whole notion ( no pun intended ) of golds true value.

I guess if they don't unwind their position sucessfully I stand to make some good money on gold but other assets may be devalued in the process. If they do unwind well then the POG will be stable or even rise profits on gold again, but other assets may also increase in an inflationary environment. Yep, I'm glad not to be a short I guess that is why they call me Long.

Bottom line is that they will find a way to get this position marketed to their advantage, barring an unforseen market event.

Got gold and gettin' more.

Now you've got dad interested?
Which chapter/verse?
I'd also like to have a look.

The quote from Daniel has been well talked about around the kitchen table. And it intrigues me that the likeness could be placed to the silicon chip and the formation and failure of the Euro.

It's just an analogy but an intriguing one.^o-o^

In the first place, what an Orwellian phrase. It would be like the police announcing a Know Your Citizens program, where homes are randomly searched for drugs, cash, and guns. Secondly, I'd say you have 12 weeks left to make large purchases of Gold, etc. before the banks are required to report this to the government. Third, will accept nothing at face value put out by the Feds. They are as believable as our President.

water/waters/the sea in Revelation: code for people,
poison is deception

heavy volume today ...630,000 shs traded...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/981208/d.html

After lurking here for months, I finally got my act together
and I now have a password. All I have to say for my first
Kitco post is... it's really great to be here!

Kitco is like a voice of sanity in an insane world.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/981208/d.html

Love your handle.....Welcome to the world of Catch-22.

Let me be the first to welcome you.

You say, "Kitco is like a voice of sanity in an insane world."

I'm glad you said Kitco is "like" a voice of sanity rather than it "is" a voice of sanity. If Kitco were a voice of sanity then we'd not spend many hours debating whether a moon walk that happened so many years ago happened. If Kitco were a voice of sanity we'd have made tons of money speculating in Internet stocks that have been going up for the last few yeas rather than losing tons of money speculating in precious metals that have been going down. But we are a passionate bunch, willing to lose money for our convictions for now, believing that some day we shall be vindicated. We believed that 2 years ago, and ten, and twenty, and -- darn it -- we're gonna believe it whether it's true or not because, we'll, we are not sane. We're like sane people, but in almost every way, but in subtle ways, we're not sane. Nope. We're goldbugs.

Welcome.
-EJ

I was in that SF commute this morning. Fortunately I was able to take the side streets. The thing was a laughable mess. It will be worse if the Y2k stuff persists like this for any length of time. I will work graveyard shift volentarily in that case. We have 12 deisel generators with a total capacity of 18 megawatts. There are three large deisel tankers that run around filling them up. Each generator unit has deisel tankage for 20 hours of operation. We completed the day without incident. I don't think that these were designed to run for any extended length of time though. As I understand it they do have switch over capability for the more critical ones i.e. only two out of three for a given set will supply critical power needs. Oh well, we are expecting to finish all software testing and most remediation in the third quarter.

And Silas; don't get too carried away with this bunch of sudo Lama Kitcoites as more often than not are full of a prodigious sum of horse hockey...granted however there are real gems here indeed!.. you know who you are.

badger

Revelation 8.10

The third angel blew his trumpet, and a great star fell from heaven, blazing like a torch, and it fell on a third of the rivers and on the fountains of water. The name of the star is Wormwoood. A third of the waters became wormwood, and many men died of the water, because it was made bitter.

Welcome to the party. It's BYO Bullion.

"But at night came his revelry: at
night he closed his shutters, and made fast his doors, and drew
forth his gold. Long ago the heap of coins had become too large for
the iron pot to hold them, and he had made for them two thick
leather bags, which wasted no room in their resting-place, but lent
themselves flexibly to every corner. How the guineas shone as they
came pouring out of the dark leather mouths! The silver bore no
large proportion in amount to the gold, because the long pieces of
linen which formed his chief work were always partly paid for in
gold, and out of the silver he supplied his own bodily wants,
choosing always the shillings and sixpences to spend in this way.
He loved the guineas best, but he would not change the silver -- the
crowns and half-crowns that were his own earnings, begotten by his
labour; he loved them all. He spread them out in heaps and bathed
his hands in them; then he counted them and set them up in regular
piles, and felt their rounded outline between his thumb and fingers,
and thought fondly of the guineas that were only half-earned by the
work in his loom, as if they had been unborn children -- thought of
the guineas that were coming slowly through the coming years,
through all his life, which spread far away before him, the end
quite hidden by countless days of weaving."

From Silas Marner by George Eliot ( Mary Anne Evans )

LONDON ( AP ) -- Men who detest holiday shopping may have a new excuse -- a researcher has found that it can be hazardous to their health. Male stress levels skyrocket when faced with noisy, crowded stores, choosing gifts and standing in check-out lines, said psychologist David Lewis, who did the research. "In some cases, when we looked at heart rate and blood pressure, this is something you'd expect to see in a fighter pilot going into combat or policemen going into dangerous situations,"

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0c.htm
--
Not that we didn't already know it was true.

and content akin to that passage is definately rated r ( restricted ) for general kitco audiences. that stuff will generally get the young posters worked up into a lather.

Er, do you mean 'like' as in 'liken unto' or 'mild affection'? Never mind, that was one of the classic Kitco posts at its best. When you rolled out the welcome mat did you perhaps mention that some of us are just silverfish? Of course no one would ever accuse US of being like we were sane. ( 8-^] )

Namaste.....and all that jazz, thanks for redirecting me to Clifton, got back in , great company C.C first told me about it. 10.000 shares are mine !!
greetings from hot and windless St.Petersburg ( that's for C.C )
l_b

Welcome to that ship of fools steering the high seas with no captain but us hardy Committee of Madmen ever seaching for that El Dorado to be found just over the horizon. And here for a bit of maddening news from the insane world of north 'Merkan PGM mining:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981208/k6.html

..bienvenue......decatend......smiling





.....bienvenue ....what was that decatend piece ? ..grinning
l_b

If gold was loaned to a hedge fund on Aug of 1997
and then immediately sold, isn't that really when
the sale occured? To the CB, it is just a loan
on the books waiting for repayment, but the gold is
already in circulation as jewelry.

If the CB now announces that the gold they loaned was
sold, it seems to me that it would appear to some that
this commodity had indeed been sold twice. If such an
announcement is made, the date of sale should be
retroactive, and therefore meaningless.

The original sale of the leased gold impacted the market
in a negative manner. If the CB'S now announce that they
too have sold this very same gold, it should be made clear
that they have opted to take cash for gold that was sold
shortly after the lease was made.

If they were playing the game fair & straight, they would
demand that the borrowed gold be returned. If this were
done, we would see gold moving upwards in a dramatic fashion.

That would be the end of this bubble market. Those in power
dont want this to happen, so they agree to let the hedge funds
dodge the BULLET. Hedge funds are too big to fail. So let
them out of a failed position to the detriment of everyone
else who is playing this market.

No one bails out the small investor. The wallpaper in my
bathroom will attest to this fact.

Thank-yah. No discrimination intended. The silver or gold shoe fits in either case and I personally have one foot in each.
-EJ

Gold is sure to drop

bottom we have yet to see

Take that to the bank. ( ohmy! )

btw -

CRK - making a move? go sheller picks go!

http://chart1.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=avidtrader&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=crk&time=3&uf=0&sid=1354&sec=c&xyz=112198124&s=5387

btw-btw - I put some cashy on a Sheller pick today......xsys at 7/32.......just over 3,000 shares.......from money found in the couch ;- ) ..............let's see how this one pops...........c'mon planet dude!! http://chart1.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=avidtrader&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=xsysc&time=20&uf=0&sid=9200&sec=c&xyz=113229983&s=3610

look at the similarity between these charts.......Mike says that they have VERY similar horoscopes......sure looks that way to me.......and who says this planet thingy ain't got nothin to it...........oh well.

http://chart1.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&site=avidtrader&onbad=cobrandsymb&symb=cnpgf&time=20&uf=0&sid=465&sec=c&xyz=113396936&s=18197 btw ( again ) .......this is a gold mine ( stock ) .....

lookin for a pop here too?? This looks as good a play as any............

( all sheller disclaimers apply ) ..................... ( EB disclaimers too ) ............

away......to w/w



I still don't believe that any Gold sold or leased by CB's actually leaves the vaults.

The tyransaction is a paper transaction, a contracts, ie ... only a promise ( s ) .

If the CB's really did move gold out, how will they get the gold back???

The gold that was supposedly sold by hedge funds is now held by us small guys in the form of bars, coins, jewellery. ARE WE READY TO SELL THE GOLD BACK??? I don't think so.

So Neophyte may have a point in that if gold has not moved out of the vaults, then fiat monet is being repaid with fiat money.

I still don't believe that any Gold sold or leased by CB's actually leaves the vaults.

The tyransaction is a paper transaction, a contracts, ie ... only a promise ( s ) .

If the CB's really did move gold out, how will they get the gold back???

The gold that was supposedly sold by hedge funds is now held by us small guys in the form of bars, coins, jewellery. ARE WE READY TO SELL THE GOLD BACK??? I don't think so.

So Neophyte may have a point in that if gold has not moved out of the vaults, then fiat monet is being repaid with fiat money.

Sheller, I remember that you were posting your good and bad times for the markets but haven't seen any lately *smile*, care to tell us what you see out across the shimmering and glimmering of the future time ? Any special days when the bulls are charging, or the bears are feasting ?

.....could you give us an update on your various picks - I may have missed some. I'm a it leery of XSYSC - but I can't remember the exact date you said was so strongly aspected. From listening to the talk about what's going on with the company it seems a banckruptcy filing would be no surprise. Does that kind of aspect you see for them give any indication as to whether the move is likely to be positive for the price or is it just an indication of action?

As to your other picks... are the moves expected to be of short duration or are the aspects ongoing for a time? I'm trying to decide how stupid it is to chase what may be a dog.. Am I too late again?

...swp

Thanks for your responses. I guess my point is that when ( not if ) CB's make the next gold sale announcements, the spin will be very negative. The sales will have to be announced because when the hedge fund repays in cash, the gold can no longer be recorded as an asset. There will be no mention of the hedge funds being allowed to repay in cash as this would be too bullish. It'll be the same ole, same ole BS. The manipulators are too strong. I don't think gold will turn for some time. It's not fair!

Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) 3/2 stock split.

a privilege...

Ok, fellow gold and silverbug losers. Here's our chance to strike it rich just like all those online trading jocks who are gumming up the works for the market makers. Tonight, the price will be set for xoom.com. No, I have no idea what they make or if they'll have any profits for 10 years or even any revenue. Does that matter? Heck no! Today the company announced it's gonna tender even more shares at a higher price. Bold! The announcement hinted conspirationally, "This usually means that the stock is expected to be in high demand." It doesn't have a ticker symbol yet, but it will tommorrow, first thing. I say, go for it!

Tip: don't buy on a market order. If it opens at $15, your buy order might not get filled until it's at $50 or $90, and your sell order might not get filled until it's back down to $30. Doh!

And if that's not fun enough, on Thursday AboveNet is issuing some more stock to raise fudns to hire some more sales and marketing types, they say. ABOV.O. It's easy money!

But don't forget the old saying: easy come, easy go.

-EJ

"I still don't believe that any Gold sold or leased by CB's actually leaves the vaults. "

If it doesn't leave the vaults, why would somebody pay any interest on it?!

If you figure that one out, I have a great car-lease deal for you. You pay me 1% interest ( way below prime - what a deal ) and I keep the car.

So far I've lost 1/3 of the money I invested in XSYS ( now XSYSC ) back when I acted on Mike's hot Astro stock tip, on 11/4/98, if my Yahoo portfolio is to be believed. My take on it at the time was that the company was either soon gonna ship its new product and start making some money or go nipples up. It appears the latter is the more likely case, if you check the DSOs. Fortunately, I didn't invest a lot of money on it. Unless XSYSC's Sagitarius crosses with its Leo, or whatever, and the company gets out of the flusher, this will be my first and last Astro-based investment.
-EJ

What's the transporation and storage cost for all that gold? Maybe I'll make more money if I leave it in your vault, even at 1%. It's not like I can drive the kids to the movies in it.
-Eric

I recall your story of loss, told on these pages a couple months ago.
I thought your telling was fair and unbiased, unlike your tale of today
I had nothing to say to you then, it was not my business, nor is it now.
I do not know you, and have formed zero opinions regarding you
And it hurts whenever anyone looses money. Big or small, it hurts.

I do not know how the decision to offer gold below spot came about
But we are prepared to deliver it, with a 1,000 ounce limit,
To anyone with the cash to pay for it. Buy it and take it home.
If some want to trade the market for profits, I never hide from the risks.
So there are zero surprises if the market turns against you
It IS the market, after all, which giveth and taketh away
A reader of this site is more informed that the vast majority of investors

It is a shame that you lost money in silver. Did you buy it too high?
Silver dropped two and a half dollars, everybody who bought silver over $5.50
And chased the Buffet story to the moon, probably lost money
As most did not have the good sense to sell, even after it topped out
Plenty of chances to do so at about 6.80, then again at 6.30, but few did this
Rather, they all seemed convinced that it would rise to smite its former highs
But instead plummeted to dismal depths, as did the dollars of some folks with it

But this is someone else's fault? Did you not make your own choice?
As a long time reader of this site, you have your finger on the pulse of this market
Are you sure it was not your own enthusiasm, fueled by the whooping on Kitco
That the Great Bull Run is finally under way? But instead, it just went under.
Remember my cautionary words regarding silver - and particularly gold?
Seems you made your choice on who to listen to, then blamed the results on them.
Do the rest at Kitco share this blame? None were more vocal at cheering silver on

I have not desire to flame anybody, and never do so.
I have responded to personal attacks on myself. Like the Gun One made
For six months without a single word from me. But enough is enough.
How long should one continue to get bashed before one responds?
I think six moths of attacks, started on K2 under a plethora of names
And then carried to this page; prosecuted without end, is more than enough provocation.
And all I can report, is that folks who have spoken to him, or received his correspondence
Are universally appalled and upset at this little worm. The term "nut" is used frequently.

As for the three or four who have complained about my announcement
Over 100 have e-mailed their interest and support for me and my methods
So you guys are getting drowned out by support you cannot see
And the sheer numbers tell me that folks appreciate the information
Appreciate my posts and, not a few, expressed delight at my treatment of those who attack
Seems they feel these folks are obstructionist and negative and a waste of time
So, I am sorry you are displeased with me, but most are not, and you do not run this site
The simple fact is, it is easier to pick up the phone and speak to a buyer calling me
Than to spend time peddling hereabouts. Much less writing required with a phone, yes?.
And people don't call me names for telling them the ways things are.

I am also sorry to hear you lost money, but every soul on this site has lost on gold
And they made all their own decisions, no brokers needed for these savvy folks.
Yet the losses in gold are horrendous. A hideous bear dug a grave for them all.
But I was here telling folks gold would fall mightily, from $360 on down.
When gold was at the lows, I told my clients to buy, and buy they did.
When gold popped over $300 recently, I shorted again, and it went down.
Maybe you were listening to the wrong people. Shoulda listened to me, yes?
The words were here and free and you did read them - you commented on them.
Yet you chose to disbelieve what I had to say. And even argued my bearish stance on gold.
Since it is someone else's fault you lost money, Is it yours that folks lost on gold?
From there, it is not too far a toss to get to the inevitable end of this excruciating long post

It is your fault you did not do the proper research and make up your own mind
Investing by someone else's word is a dicey business indeey, yet there you went
Next time, take other opinions into account and invest responsibly, we are all adults here.
So.. research and move. But don't go blaming other folks because you liked what they said.

We all live with our own decisions.

I do not wish to have an argument with you over this
It is none of my business, it is yours and others
But I make no apologies for letting folks know
Where to buy gold under spot, as nobody else has
And more than a hundred have expressed their thanks to me

This is a gold forum, could anything be more germane?

If so, I don't know

What?

to meet a rising world market...Trilateralists would love it.

EJ, yes I am well aware that some among us deny the moonwalk. I
remember reading some of that stuff here, many weeks ago.

Just to dispell any illusions, I'll let you know right up from
that I seriously question whether or not the moonwalk was authentic.
I've spent some valuable time out of my life to try to research
some of the claims of the 'conspiracy kooks'--specifically NASA's
explanation of how the sublimators on the spacesuits work. But
I digress... I didn't come here to talk about NASA. I want to
discuss the world economy, Y2K, and that curiously unique metal
we call gold.

I've been a computer programmer for about 20 years. I remember
working on a system at my high school--one of the first programs
I ever actually got paid to write. In those days a diskette
held under 200K, and a 64K machine was considered "stacked." And
so, saving bytes here and there was not only the smart thing to
do... it was part of the ART of computer programming. Elegance
was brevity, and the fewer bytes used, the more elegant the
program.

Anyhow, I remember telling the teacher for whom I was writing this
program, "This program will not work on the year 2000, at least for
a month. Does that matter?"

He smiled and said, "well let's hope I'm not still teaching in the
year 2000!" I affirmed, saying "Not only that, this Apple ][+ will
probably be in a computer museum by then!" ( They were already
becoming obsolete. )

The point was, if we wanted the feature of having it Y2K compliant
it might have taken me an additional 30 minutes of work ( stretching
it ) and I would have billed him for it. But instead he CHOOSE to
purchase a program that would not function in the future, and got
a slight discount in the process. I don't have one whit of guilt
for my work in that case, and frankly I doubt they still use an
Apple ][+ there for anything.

Of course, I'm one of the honest ones. Many programmers introduce
Y2K bugs and don't tell the client, because it could only help to
ice the deal. Other programmers might have been so poorly
trained that they actually overlooked the year 2000 condition. I
beleive this case is rare--any programmer worth his or her salt
will analyze how a routine behaves when it receives "zero" as an
input. The biggest problem was and is outright laziness.

While I'm on the soapbox let me dispell a media myth, that the bug
stems from a method of saving memory by using two digit dates. This
is not really true, because you can use two digit dates and still
not fear Y2K. I have written programs that would interpret any
year below "70" as 2000+year; where "70" and up would be 1900+year.
This way, I introduced a "year 2070 bug"--pushing the disaster far
off in the future for my grandchildren to deal with. ( And if
somebody is still using an Apple ][+ at that point... well, they get
anything they have coming! )

All that being said, I am not worried about Y2K causing a great
technology meltdown. Sure, there are going to be bugs. There are
bugs every single day. Sometimes you go to the bank and the "computer
is down." Some programmer set up a box that runs out of stack-space
and needs to be rebooted every now and then! Computers and flakey.
( Just between you and me, I sometimes sacrifice some dead mice to my
Apple just to make it work smoother. )

But companies rely on their systems working to make their money, and I
know where I'll be on December 31st... right here in the office, ready
to reprogramming any work I might have screwed up for a client! And if
one of my vendors is having a problem, I might even volunteer my skills.
But the end of society? No more electricity? Banks non-functional?
I doubt it.

However, there is a far greater threat looming over our heads. Any
student of history knows the history of fiat money. Paper money,
leather money, even copper money--it's all fiat. And whenever it has
been used, the results have been very predictable. Whatever
prosperity it brings is fighting an uphill battle against inflation.
And those two things, prosperity and inflation, make for a deadly
combination. Poverty and inflation is OK--that's only to be expected.
But prosperity and inflation... watch out!!!

It's the signal that our "good times" are really taking
place in our minds more than in reality. In the end, mankind's
current experiment with fiat money will end like all the others--only
far worse, because this time everybody has invested everything in fiat
money. Well, most of us have ; )

~Silas~

PS - fun link about the history of money
http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/ECONOMY/PPRCHSE1.HTM

Tantalus Rex: One of us Kitcoites mentioned some time ago that some of the CB gold is 'loaned' out -- 'scrip' of some kind -- a promise to pay. The bigger CB's with first rate credit rating can do this with the bullion banks or big traders who work their gold trades in the markets. The bullion banks or big traders trust the 'scrip' of the big CB's, like they would trust the Rothschild's 'scrip'.

I would guess that the smaller or more insecure CB's have to physically transfer the gold to the bullion banks or traders. I doubt that the Russian CB would get the opportunity to trade in the gold markets at all, unless they physically loaned gold as collateral.

I remember F Veneroso saying that there were about 8,000 tonnes of gold loans -- and he reasoned that given this high volume, the gold shorts would have to capitulate. Now we are a little wiser, and realize that 'the powers that be' mught very well loan out the rest of their gold to keep the game going -- I think the number available to the CB's is closer to 14,000 tonnes. And -- we know AG has threatened to throw options trades at the gold markets if gold 'rises too fast'. We know he can do this, and probably would until he ran out of gold -- if he thought the world financial system was threatened. Also -- we know that the deflationary trend of the last two years or so has made the work of the CB gold bears much easier.

But -- every crisis nibbles away at the reserves. And, when the gold has to be 'given' back the financial strength of the bullion bank or big trader comes into play -- not just the CB that loaned the gold. The big CB that 'loaned' the gold is in better shape if the bullion bank or trader folds, but the smaller or financially weak CB could be in deep trouble.

My guess is that the dollar/gold carry or similar trade has not yet fully unwound. When it does, the weaker CB's will get caught and we will have a flurry of gold 'fire sales' -- we had some already. And -- as someone mentioned tonight, those gold 'sales' occured months to years before -- and the response of the gold market based more on the response to the rumor of the sale rather than fact.

I guess what we need to do is simply watch the dollar/gold relationship for the dollar/gold carry. The US dollar should drop precipously if this trade is being unwound quickly.

One more item -- we know AG must continue to inflate the US dollar, or face an even worse threat than inflation - depression. In ordinary recessionary times, we would expect the price of gold to rise like clockwork, as it did in 1993-1994. Unfortunately it is not that simple now, because if AG fails to inflate the US dollar quickly enough, the dollar price of gold may continue to drop as we spiral down into a recession, and worse. So -- at the very least, AG must keep the price of gold from dropping below a certain minimum, or he risks financial oblivion of a far more dangerous kind than that generated by inflation. His and our goose is cooked if the new liquidity he creates goes into the markets, rather than pushing up the price of gold. Of course, he can unwind some of the options trades that have pushed down the price of gold all of these years.

I think this is good news -- we must have a bottom in the price of gold ( in US dollars ) or we face financial oblivion. AG is quite aware that all this dollar/gold manipulation has a price -- he and the other CB's ( with he help of the gold producers ) must unwind their gold trades very carefully when they do -- as any mistakes will be very costly.

Tomorrow, buy the dec SnP on any dips under 1170, this market is going still higher, should be over 1200 by next week.

planet where men show predictable patterns of behavior based on greed,
fear, suspicion, and self-preservation.Thank you.Cut the star sheshe.

Answer: Alan Greenspan.The guy with the international cash.Face it guys
he's our demon, our Anti-Christ.Nite all.

"It's not like I can drive the kids to the movies in it. "

Car is for one thing, gold is for another. Hey, if you left the car at the dealer, you would spend much less money on a garage, maintenance, and gasoline too. Gold's function is to protect wealth from governments -- It is NOT an investment.

Are you trying to say that the whole 100% of the COMEX/LBMA game is paper? Sure, some gold never moves from COMEX or registration banks vaults, simply changes owners. SOME of it gets delivered and ALL of it depresses prices artificially.

Yes, they can play the game for a long time until people get spooked enough to take delivery ( it is happening already ) .

For a long, long time I wanted to go on a tour of the Fort Knox or the NY Fed and see all that gold they are supposed to have. ( I have seen people do that in the movies - Goldfinger? ) You cannot do it now. Any reason?

Emperor has no clothes and Bubba is an imbecile.

APH: I think you are right - for the next few weeks. AG must continue to increase the money supply, and much of the new cash will leak over into the markets. Since we are entering a month when the markets tend to rise, I would guess that the only things that would bring them down real fast would be a crisis in the Middle East ( Saddam replay -- with Oil producers blessing ) , or a Crisis with North Korea ( far more risky ) , or impeachment of WJC by the House.

I'm curious about your opinion on what happens after the market hits those lofty levels that you are looking for. Does the bull go on and on or do we crash and burn?

Tantalus Rex - When Central banks loan there Gold out the Gold really does leave the vault. That is that no and's if's or but's!

They repay the loan by buying Gold from a mining company.

"The only thing that Fort Knox guards is the secret that it's empty."

I've heard it said that during the Nixon administration the international
bankers sucked it up at a discounted rate of about $30/ounce. This
was all in conjunction of taking us off the gold standard.

Is this true? I've heard this said but never have been able to
independantly verified. Or is it one of those spooky secrets that the
public is not supposed to know about?

In socialism everything is relative.

In USSR, RIP, they used to lock up all the "extremists" ( yes they did use that term ) in a looney bin. After all, you must be CRAZY to question the government.

Today's Russia and Eastern Europe are very interesting. All the stupid, nasty hags that used to work for the government are on the street trying to sell themselves for a couple of cents. All the morons who believed promises of governmen's "security" now eat garbage ( when they are lucky not to starve to death ) . That's justice.

The parallels between the last years of USSR and today's USA are very hard to ignore. US's government is the very last dinasour, a sick corpse on live support and many are waiting to finish it off as soon as they get a chance.

Welcome. I dont know if its empty,but it has not been audited ( for quite some time ) as prescribed by law.

The gummit don't need to confiscate yer gold, they can confiscate it's value by selling their reserves in various ingenius ways. The only time you need to worry about the gummit taking your gold is when they need it to re-establish the gold standard. Seems far-fetched to me.
-EJ

I swear, the next time I enter the Kitco site and actually see
the POG"UP" in Asia, I'm going to SH*T my pants. I tell ya,
it's getting pretty bad when the wife walks in the door, takes
one look at you and says, "What's the matter, having another
bad Gold day?" Sheeeeesh, I'm getting fed up with this crap.

Geeeez, I gotta settle down, this is no good for the blood
pressure. Yea, that's it, settle down, have a beer. Yup, think
I will, a nice Cold Beer, a "GOLDEN ALE".

Ahhhhhhhhhh, thats better, GO GOLF.....................

What do you make of this? Using National Security as the reason, an unspecified amount of funds is ordered transfered to Russia and the CIS. This bypasses Congressional oversight ( which may be an oxymoron ) . Are the Feds trying to sneak a few billion quietly to Russia? http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a366de5bc1b70.htm

This solution is called Windowing. It makes assumptions about the date ranges in the data that will be processed by the program. This would never work for Social Security or Insurance Companies, for example. In general,I dont think that this is a good solution.

I have never said that I worried about government going door to door to confiscate gold.

What I did say is that in a socialist economy ( or one with sufficient Social Security, Medicare, Welfare, Meals-On-Wheels ) every deflation leads to hyper-inflation. The money the gov. is spending on all these programs will be spent no matter what. Any serious downfall in the real economy results in a need to spend huge ammount of money to fight civil unrest. Since the money cannot come from taxes anymore, it comes from printing presses ( or today gets magically created ) .

When you have a ZOO of 100,000,000 morons who were fed from cradle to the grave by the almighty government, they WILL get pissed when the government stops delivering beer and chips. Regardless what route the government takes ( spending money on more welfare or more money on police state ) that money has to be created out of nothing. I do believe that the whole fiasco can happen in a matter of days:

1. Severe deflation alone or linked to stock crash
2. Ruining of farmers and other producers
3. Unrest and shortages
4. Police State or Weimar Republic ( have a wheelbarrow big enough? )
5. Paper assets of any sort become worthless

I must agree with RJ. While I do not like his style ( somewhat arrogant ) he has been mostly accurate in his calls on gold prices for the past year since I have been lurking. Only Kaplan has been more timely.

I became a gold bull about this time last year. ( Before this I was a technology bull. ) By listening to Kaplan, RJ and a few others with a strong background in trading the precious, I was able to buy on the dips and am up solidly for the year. We shall see if this holds. Another dip wouldn't surprise me, so I have about 1/3 of my powder still dry.

It is easy to get caught up in the frenzy of this site and go for the juniors. I must admit I bought a few of these to watch, but they comprise just a few percent of my holdings. As it has been often discussed on this site, a gold bull will most likely begin with the large caps, move to the juniors, then the exploration companies, then the pennys. I fully expect this to unfold in 99. I have my picks ( thanks to those here ) and can't wait to sell ABX and pick up more juniors, but I am holding my water at present. As the frenzy builds I will sell this paper gold and buy more physical. Even if I have to pay extreme prices, I will net out quite well.

While I vehemently disagree with RJ on a number of topics, he can not be faulted for his short term calls. If he were truely a scam artist he would certainly be less argumentative regarding the end times scenarios and other pet topics discussed here. While I believe that the end times are approaching and will be preceeded by a comprehensive world wide financial collapse, I have profited from RJ's posts, and have resisted the temptation to flame him. I want to continue to hear his opinions regardless of much I disagree with him on the bigger picture.

On the other hand, I am much less ambivalent about Monex and many of the other reps at this institution. I sent my father to Monex. He never received the gifts promised as part of his purchase, and they have been relentless about trying to get him into options despite his rather modest means ( often in direct contrast to RJs calls on this forum ) . They call repeatedly. I called to get information on how I might be able to get my IRA into physical as a part of my long term strategy to move into physical. Again, the calls have been relentless. I was blatently told that mining shares were all junk and that physical would appreciate much more rapidly during a gold bull and that I should purchase contracts to take delivery in the fall at 400-500. This was when gold was 315 earlier in the year. This joker was clearly trying to prey upon greed during a period of euphoria. If I had listened, I would be toast.

How do you sell a dollar for 99 cents and stay in business?
Sell Gold below spot and make money?
A free lunch, and you can eat it too?
There are ulterior motives at work, yes?
Remember, the old saying: If it sounds too good to be true...........

But from all the stories I have heard of losses I have not heard one story of someone losing money from 'investing'........only speculating. There is a BIG difference. Investing is long haul......... ( duh ) . Speculating is gambling......... ( duher ) . Taking a loss is tough.......and one must have mental toughness to even be 'in the game'. If ya ain't got the stones.........get out and stay out ( ! )

EJ - hang in there on xsysc ( ya have to now, eh? ;- ) ) ........one of two things will happen.............. and ya know what camp I'm in.......If they go belly-up?......oh well........move to the next. Don't blame astrology, or your broker, or your next door neighbors dog that keeps you awake at night.......... ( I'm not saying you do but it seems to be apropos tonight ) . I do not see belly up for these guys........but then again......................

swp1 - CRK, TMAR, EEC, OPEN, XSYSC, WPOG, KOGC not in any particular order................if you had bought the whole lot of em you would be in good profits if you had been nimble ( which is what it takes ) . The oily stox should come around next year, no?

Sorry Mike for being your mouthpiece tonight and I apologize if I said anything incorrectly.......go gold.

away...to the couch for a nice read



Excellent two days folks. Perhaps Kitco should shut down on the occasional weekend, ;- ) , so that it brings out the best in us!
And tonights summary; ( by a mammal called Badger ) :
"It's posts like this I lurk for!"
Goodnight All! ( and Goodnight Glenn - wherever you might be... )
ROR - WHeeerrrrree RRRR Youuuuu?

Since you are a coder I have a question. Doesn't MS C++ use a long integer date. If so shouldn't we have a problem about 2038 or so as well?

Oh I agree! The "windowing" method of creating a 2070 bug is not
as good as simply writing an application that works!

But I'm sure you'd find that even with systems like Unix, there
are still bugs that would occur when an absurdly futuristic date is
reached, like 9999 or 32767. So even when you do it the "right"
way, you are still windowing, it's just a much bigger window.

In the year, 2525...

~Silas~

Couldn't resist! Just saw MoReGoLd's post @ "Something stinks here" After two days of debate I just can't believe that some of you people are so caught up with conspiracy theories that you just can't believe in good old fashioned marketing! Duh, DUH and DOUBLE DUUUUHHHH. Everyday since BEFORE every single one of us here was born there has been a VERY simple concept in marketing practised on this here North American Continent. Anyone here, hear of and/or understand about the concept of LOSS LEADER? Duh, Duh, and Double DUUUUUHHHHH! Give up the analysis folks when the answer is as plain as that big old ugly nose on your face! 'Nuff Said! Sleep Tight. ( I'm going to bed laughing. )

Yes, we will crash and burn at some point in time. But when? I don't know. Right now the monthly trend line for the SnP is in the 1250 area and I can make a case for 1500-1600 down the road. There is lotts of cash floating around kind of like salt water, makes it easier for the market to stay afloat. Other then a steep increase in interest rates I don't see anything else to bring the market down, for the time being mild corrections will be the norm on a percentage basis but worth 100's of points for trading purposes.

Anglogold has bought out the gold mining interests of
its sister company Minorco, for $550 million. The purchase
will add 9 million oz of reserves and 13 million of
resources to the Anglogold total ..
The mines are Jerritt canyon and Pikes peak in the US ..
Morro Velho and Mineracao Serra Grande in Brasil .. and Cerro
Vanguardia in Argentina.
Morgan Grenfell estimates Anglogold already had about 425
million oz of gold resources before the purchase. Their production
will now rise to 7.5 mill oz/year from ( 6.6 mill oz ) .
This compares to 2.8 for Goldfields, 3.1 for ABX, 3.9 for
Newmont, and 3.6 for Placer Dome.

Banks are doing it, and I admit that I've done it myself. Traded two golden eagles for a hand scribbled agreement and a signature. I get two golden eagles and four silver. No reason for gold to sit in the banks basement keeping the building from blowing away when it can be useful. I clutch my torn scrap of paper bag close, as the signature on it is as good as gold. Banks, loan and sell your gold. Countries, do the same. Investors, sell those coins and bars. Miners, sell your gold forward. Everyone write derivatives on gold until there are a thousand paper oz's for every golden eagle. Then we buy.

RUNNING WITH THE GOLD BULLS

By A. Canon Bryan

I have always contended that it would take a momentous and very
visible event on the part of the mining industry itself to spark a
shift in the sensibilities of its following from bearish to bullish.
I've never said what that event could be, although inwardly I have
made my guesses.

At any rate, I believe one such event has occurred. But I am sorry to
report it didn't receive the attention it fully deserved; at least,
not in North America. Does this diminish its importance? I'm not
sure.

Here is what happened: Normandy Mining, the largest producer of gold
in Australia and one of the 10 largest producers on the globe, has
cashed in their chips on a 4.1 million ounce hedge book. One of the
guesses that I referred to above involved Peter Munk and Barrick
realizing their hedge book of roughly 9 million ounces, but Normandy
will certainly do, and I'll tell you why. It all has to do with a
chap named De Crespigny ( pronounced duh-crap-nee, I'm not kiddin' ) -
CEO of Normandy - who has been painted as the kingpin of the mining
industry Down Under, but not necessarily in a good way. Like Bill
Gates, De Crespigny has his thumbs dipped in every possible plumb pie
on the Pan Australian frontier. He has a lot of muscle and he likes
to flex it often. He has an uncanny reputation for foisting his
uncared-for aggression towards all those around him.

I have always felt that a man such as Robert Champion De Crespigny
would be most definitely be in the know with respect to all things
golden, including the direction of its price. Realizing a giant short
position is a clear signal to me that Mr. De Crespigny is a bull on
the yellow metal. All this is to say nothing of actual physical
ramifications that this acquisition has on the market place. We're
taking about 127.5 tonnes, folks.

Another footnote that adds spice to the thickening stew is this; if
one would care to remember, the bottom truly began to fall out of gold
in July 1997 when the Reserve Bank of Australiaannounced their sale of
- guess how much gold? Only one month prior to that De Crespigny
announced his short position.

The timing seemed rather providential for Normandy. I chalked it up
to brilliant foresight but perhaps there was more at hand. I find
that the background of this story, as with most Australian corporate
strategy, leaves more questions than answers; the only unmistakable
point being that De Crespigny has stepped forward and proclaimed his
bullish stance. Can the rest of the herd be far behind?

"Since you are a coder I have a question. Doesn't MS C++ use a long integer date. If so shouldn't we have a problem about 2038 or so as
well?"

I never used MS C++ so I can't tell you. There's no standard definition
of how big a "shortint" or a "longint" is, but I've seen shortint before
meaning 2 bytes, which spans from 0-65535. ( Or -32768 through +32767 )
So offhand it doesn't seem to be problem.

Of course MS might have a built in date structure for convenience,
in which case Microsoft could have screwed up royally. If they did, it's
surely well publicized and they would jump at the chance to
sell a high-priced fix!

Keep in mind I'm not a Y2K programmer. There are people who eat and
breathe this stuff, get into all kinds of crazy front-ends and back-ends
to solve the problem. I had a job a few years back where some of the
company's software was missing the up-to-date source code. In other
words, we couldn't compile/change the program at all! So I wrote this
rediculous front-end which would pre-process the input into the
program ( to remove the lines which caused it to err ) and then modify
the output ( to insert the lines which were removed. ) It was the
biggest kluge I've ever created--out of a mad necessity to get a broken
system working. I've heard that Y2K programmers often do exactly that,
because of deadlines and necessity. Frankly you can't pay me enough
money to get into work like that. I can't find any satisfaction in
building a monstrosity.

~Silas~

"On Monday, August 24, 1998, Eppler W. Durand, officer of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 11 of 700 shares at a price of 17.25 per share, bringing his total holdings to 2,215 shares. On Thursday, September 3, 1998, James R. Maronick, vice president of Crown Resources Corp. ( CRRS ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 14 of 2,000 shares at a price of 2.78 per share, bringing his total holdings to 3,467 shares. On Thursday, September 3, 1998, Doug Ramshaw, Vice President of Azco Mining Inc. ( AZC ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 17 of 10,000 shares at a price of 0.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 10,000 shares. On Friday, September 4, 1998, Lawrence T. Kurlander, Vice President of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 5 of 3,000 shares at a price of 18.94 per share, bringing his total holdings to 12,376 shares. On Tuesday, September 8, 1998, Bruce G. Hansen, Vice President of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 27 of 3,000 shares at a price of 14.94 per share, bringing his total holdings to 11,373 shares. On Tuesday, September 8, 1998, Thomas Arthur Holmes, director of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 21 of 10,000 shares at a price of 17.81-17.88 per share, bringing his total holdings to 16,948 shares. On Tuesday, September 8, 1998, George B. Munroe, director of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 25 of 1,000 shares at a price of 16.88 per share, bringing his total holdings to 3,089 shares. On Tuesday, September 8, 1998, Michael K. Reilly, director of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 27 of 5,000 shares at a price of 14.75 per share, bringing his total holdings to 15,000 shares. On Wednesday, September 9, 1998, August Von Fink, beneficial owner of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 3 through August 13 of 3,110,600 shares at a price of 10.39-11.01 per share, bringing his total holdings to 30,000,000 shares. On Thursday, September 10, 1998, Thomas P. Bausch, treasurer of Battle Mountain Gold Co. ( BMG ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 7 of 5,000 shares at a price of 4.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 10,833 shares. On Thursday, September 10, 1998, Bobby L. Lackey, director of Freeport Mc-Moran Copper and Gold Inc. ( FCX.A ) , announced a SALE on August 3 of 1,006 shares at a price of 14.69 per shares, reducing his total holdings to 861 shares. On Thursday, September 10, 1998, Peter J. Neff, director of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 11 of 1,800 shares at a price of 10.63 per share, bringing his total holdings to 1,800 shares. On Friday, September 11, 1998, David A. Baker, officer of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 26 of 1,000 shares at 16.56 per share, bringing his total holdings to 1,922 shares. On Friday, September 11, 1998, John A. S. Dow, vice president of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 2 of 2,000 shares at a price of 14.38 per share, bringing his total holdings to 3,896 shares. On Tuesday, September 15, 1998, Ross F. Burns, vice president of Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( RYO ) , announced a PURCHASE on July 22 through July 29 of 3,000 shares at a price of 1.49-1.53 per share, bringing his total holdings to 258,779 shares. On Tuesday, September 15, 1998, William F. Lindqvist, vice president of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 7 of 500 shares at a price of 10.63 per share, bringing his total holdings to 1,163 shares. On Thursday, September 17, 1998, Conrad J. LaVigne, director of Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( RYO ) , announced a PURCHASE on July 22 through July 23 of 15,000 shares at a price of 1.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 30,000 shares. On Thursday, September 17, 1998, Arthur Brown, Chairman of the Board of Hecla Mining Co. ( HL ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 28 of 5,000 shares at a price of 3.81-3.88 per share, bringing his total holdings to 24,962 shares. On Friday, September 18, 1998, Trevor Schultz, director of Ashanti Goldfields Co. Ltd. ( ASL ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 17 of 5,000 shares at a price of 7.00 per share, bringing his total holdings to 15,851 shares. On Tuesday, October 6, 1998, Robert J. A. Irwin, Chairman of the Board of ASA Ltd. ( ASA ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 24 of 500 shares at a price of 20.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 1,700 shares. On Wednesday, October 7, 1998, Richard A. Tastula, Vice President of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 9 of 3,000 shares at a price of 10.88 per share, bringing his total holdings to 3,000 shares. On Wednesday, October 7, 1998, Roger A. Kauffman, officer of Hecla Mining Co. ( HL ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 1 of 2,000 shares at a price of 3.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 3,382 shares. On Thursday, October 8, 1998, Robert H. Quenon, shareholder of Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 1 of 5,000 shares at a price of 14.25 per share, bringing his total holdings to 5,374 shares. On Thursday, October 8, 1998, James S. Goff, Vice President of Alta Gold Co. ( ALTA ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 4 of 5,000 shares at a price of 1.31 per share, bringing his total holdings to 35,000 shares. On Thursday, October 8, 1998, Peter Clarke, director of Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO ) , announced a SALE on September 28 of 6,500 shares at a price of 3.48-3.51 ( Canadian ) per share, and another SALE on October 1 of 5,000 shares at a price of 3.90 ( Canadian ) per share, reducing his total holdings to 18,500 shares. This is significant because it marks the first insider sale of any gold mining executive since August 3. On Friday, October 16, 1998, William S. Davis, Chief Financial Officer of Sunshine Mining and Refining Co. ( SSC ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 27 of 10,000 shares at a price of 0.75 per share, and another PURCHASE on September 20 of 10,000 shares at a price of 1.25 per share. On Friday, October 16, 1998, George R. Johnson, Vice President of Hecla Mining Co. ( HL ) , announced a PURCHASE on August 31 of 500 shares at a price of 3.75 per share, bringing his total holdings to 500 shares. On Friday, October 16, 1998, John Skadow, affiliated person of Royal Gold Inc. ( RGLD ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 23 of 300 shares at a price of 3.75 per share, bringing his total holdings to 4,060 shares. On Friday, October 16, 1998, James W. Stuckert, director of Royal Gold Inc. ( RGLD ) , announced a PURCHASE on September 1 through September 2 of 9,124 shares at a price of 3.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 59,124 shares. On Tuesday, October 20, 1998, the Malaysia Mining Corporation, shareholder of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a SALE on September 24 of 3,544,720 shares at a price of 11.32 per share, reducing their total holdings to 18,715,671 shares. On Wednesday, November 4, 1998, Christopher E. Herald, director of Crown Resources Corp. ( CRRS ) , announced a PURCHASE on October 16 of 2,000 shares at a price of 2.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 153,963 shares. On Friday, November 13, 1998, Christopher E. Herald, director of Crown Resources Corp. ( CRRS ) , announced a PURCHASE on November 4 through November 5 of 6,000 shares at a price of 2.38 per share, bringing his total holdings to 159,963 shares. On Friday, November 13, 1998, Thomas A. Loucks, vice president of Royal Gold Inc. ( RGLD ) , announced a PURCHASE on October 2 of 1,000 shares at a price of 4.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 350,778 shares. On Friday, November 13, 1998, James W. Stuckert, director of Royal Gold Inc. ( RGLD ) , announced a PURCHASE on October 30 of 5,000 shares at a price of 4.50 per share, bringing his total holdings to 64,124 shares. On Monday, November 16, 1998, Eric Paul McClintock, director of Homestake Mining Co. ( HM ) , announced a SALE on October 8 of 4,000 shares at a price of 14.19 per share, reducing his total holdings to 8,230 shares. On Tuesday, November 17, 1998, Philip M. Spicer, president of Central Fund of Canada ( CEF ) , a closed-end bullion fund, announced a SALE on November 2 of 400 shares at a price of 0.87 per share, reducing his total holdings to 9,588 shares. On Wednesday, December 2, 1998, Debbie W. Mino, vice president of Crown Resources Corp. ( CRRS ) , announced a PURCHASE on November 4 through November 19 of 1,500 shares at a price of between 2.13 and 2.50 per share, bringing her total holdings to 30,229 shares. Sources for all insider transactions: Federal Filings and First Call.

"

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates ( AP ) -- Gulf Arab countries, grappling Tuesday with ways to halt the plunge in oil prices that has gouged their budgets, called on oil-rich nations to stop overproduction. "The whole problem" of low oil prices is caused by countries not sticking to their production quotas, said Jamil al-Hojeilan, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council. "We hope that pledges to abide by agreed-upon quotas are respected," he told the Middle East Broadcasting Corp., an Arab TV network. GCC leaders were in the second day of a summit in Abu Dhabi dominated by the issue of bolstering oil prices that have plummeted because of the recession in Asia and warmer-than-usual winters.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne08.htm
--
Why bother. Like any country that is in serious difficulty right now because of low oil prices is going to agree to cut back on production and actually stick to it for the common good of oil prices. Oil is getting dumped on the market because people need the cash, even the small amount of cash that they'll get from selling it. If it wasn't so, then they'd store it for later, or slow production, and sell when prices were better. Better to let the markets figure it out for themselves as lower and lower prices will stop over-production by forcing some producers out of business. Don't delay the inevitable. Let the pendulum swing.

below 1150 very quickly. The hucksters have pushed the techs about as far as they can push them & a lot of money mgrs are just looking for an excuse to take profits.

Auric: Just this week WJC gave all civilian government workers a 4% or so pay raise, and now money is being sent to Russia under a presidential directive of some kind. And -- then there are all of those other executive orders.

Why does the president even need Congress or the Judicial branches of the government?

My antennae are tingling -- has WJC managed to achieve more autonomy than most presidents since the time of FDR? And -- we are not in a state of emergency as far as I can tell.

Now -- I have no problem with supporting Russia during their time of need -- but the support must be sparing and focused to do the most good. And -- I thought that was the role of the IMF.

Finally, many individuals are trying to dismantle the independent cousel provision, which apparently expires next year. Are these individuals who recommend the end of the independent counsel resolution really thinking of the best interests of the United States, or are they under the employ of the executive branch?

This is frightening -- good thing WJC is not what he could be. Things could be much worse if all of that sexual energy was focused on gathering power instead.

My friend, you got to ask for an urgent meeting with
your management and learn more about this "below spot price"
deal your company is offering...it is very good deal, no
doubt about it...I believe you deserved some trust in your
company - did you mention something about many many years
in the business?
Also, you said this year is the best in 10 years, yes?
So, why is this sudden interest in delivering discounted gold
for cash?...

If you do not want to provide details, that's fine, and you
have right to remain silent.... I'll take your honest word
that you do not know...

Swear to God, I'm just curious...you see, I'm learning
business, and that is a really interesting approach you
( your company ) are using in this case...

Is this:

1. Promotion, in order to get new clients?
2. Fixing of company balance sheet?
3. Company is going out of business, rush sale?
4. Some way to make rank-n-file people in America
very happy by delivering discounted gold, charity?
5. Other unexplainable reason ( you honestly do not know ) ?

Choose from the menu above, if you wish...

Sorry for bothering, and best luck and success to you...