Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:02 - ID#30345)
When did they get bought by BP, I thought they were owned by RioTinto, or is RTP owned by BP? The mine is like a moon scape, devoid of vegitation. I had to be there for startup, and it was one of the reasons I left Bechtel. It has a pretty good waterhole at the bottom. Actually the mines in south America are much larger. RioTinto Looks like a first class ADR; even better than Anglogold. They also have significant coal holdings. We put in a cogen plant for power to at the smelter. I'm gonna have to toss a coin for RioTinto ( RTP ) or Anglo ( AU ) ADRs. There is anyone with a good reason I'll lokk forit. TIA.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:05 - ID#197293)
Hey did I hear anyone say Trilobits and Rockhounds? ( grin ) . Native copper is cool we have a mine here in NJ the oldest one in America called the skyler. I have been digging a rat hole to get into it so that I can pull out some rare persudo Melchite. I have already found nice small ones that are very dark deep green. Now all I have to do is find a mother laod in gold this way I wont have to dig for stinking copper ( grin )

Kind Regards

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:06 - ID#35757)
@EJ Re: info tech
If the current tack of our society is not changed, we will be stripped of our privacy and our freedom. As we find new and exciting ways to conduct business, the government will find new and exciting ways to "serve" us. Every action will be scrutinized and reported, and the net will hum with supplications for permission. Those that think that the net is freedom electrifed my some day find out "There IS no underground Winston". God help us.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:16 - ID#330280)
Feb Gold currently at 297.10 in overnite-trading. Keep goin' my yellow rock, keep
goin'. March Silver is at 4.835 in overnite-trading, as well. Go Silver go! ******Go Gold go!**********Good nite all. Fox-man

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:16 - ID#287337)
Tolerant - Is it true that you're . . .
coming to the Toronto get-together?

If so, you've got to promise to come to the microbrew bar with the gang in the evening and bring one of your best cigars along.

We'll order you a tequila, and then we can all watch the famous "gulp and puff" in the flesh! 'Twill be a genuine privilege : )

- Steve

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:17 - ID#287358)
ArmGold, gagnrad, others
If you have a digital camera and can post photos of the larger specimens, I would love to see some. I have a collection of about 12 specimens now, and would like to add different minerals. In 25 to 200-pound sizes.
Am still looking for the 200-pound Gold specimen, too. %^ ) ... The largest Gold nugget I have is about one ounce. I go to Tucson, AZ every year, looking for new items. Anybody else here going to Tucson?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:23 - ID#45173)
@Selby, gagrad, t1
The occasions were rare that various brokers I've had over the years gave advice that was consistent with the truth AND allowed them to earn a spif on the trade. It seems that this is one of those happy instances for you and your broker. However, a lot of Internet stocks do not solve a real business problem. They do something novel ( cool ) but don't fix a roblem or take away anyone's pain. They will fail. Those that do solve a problem, have a strong management team, and are well funded have a better than 50% chance of success. Remember, the team is more important than the idea. Ideas are cheap. A great team with a weak idea is far more likely to succeed than a weak team with a great idea. This if nothing else I have learned from the experience of six start-up high tech companies in the past 15 years.

I love gold. Love to toss a fat coin in my hand. Feels like money. It feels real. Technology feels real to me too. True, some tech stocks trading at absurd multiples of their earnings, or with no earnings. These will eventually implode. And yes they will drag good stocks down with them. But the good stocks will rebound. Keep a list. Wait for your moment and buy them. Want recreation? Buy an Astro stock like XSYSC, down 47% since 11-4-98.

Imagine yourself transported back to 1904, trying to show and explain to a man what the PalmPilot is and what it does. Assuming you were somehow able to explain to him a technology that to him might as well have come from another planet, try explaining that in your time it could be purchased with a $20 Gold Liberty. Do you think he'd conclude that gold was wildly overpriced in your time? However, if you told him it costs $400 in your time, he might think you were getting in the ballpark.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:28 - ID#20359)
Steve In TO, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I won't be able to be at the gathering
due to hernia fun...I really would like to have visited with all of you and know that you all shall have a tremendous time...I hope to make the next one...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:29 - ID#372214)
we know that.. the short is why do we not organise the long side of kitco, that would be a force to recon with.think about it guys.we could probably blow them out of the water.unity is a force for success.i am nuts but its a start.

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:37 - ID#287337)
Big Fisherman - It sounds like your software . . .
could be very interesting to the spook community. Just make sure you don't end up like Bill Hamilton of Inslaw Corp., who had his software pirated by the Justice Dept., with a backdoor being added by the NSA, and who was harrassed and hounded when he tried to get justice in the courts. Several people have been killed over the years, in incidents related to this case as well. The spook community plays hardball when people start to get too close to exposing domestic corruption.

More info can be found at:

If the CIA or the NSA or the FBI approach you about your software, run the other way!

- Steve

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:39 - ID#372214)
this organization could put a scare in insane shorting for their gain. this could work.clinton would listen it would be the equivelent of a loby group.......

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:45 - ID#287337)
Tolerant - Sorry to hear about . . .
your "thorn in the flesh." Hope you get well soon!

When you come to the spring/summer get-together next year, promise to bring one of your best stogies. Or actually- no need to. You can get top-notch ones here in TO. A lot of Americans come up here to get their Cuban cigars, hand-rolled on the thigh of a genuine master craftswoman. Is it true that Cuban cigars are actually allowed to be sold in the US now?

- Steve

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:48 - ID#20359)
EJ, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...irrespective as to what holds value in any given
time any country...the fact remains that regardless of the object or service which has a percieved value in the mind of the individual a rock solid system of payment must be in place so that an exchange can take place...

I would present to you that it would be far more difficult to explain that the dollar is backed by faith than to explain what a palmtop is...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:51 - ID#226299)
@the scene
tomo -- Nobody need do anything. The shorts will kill themselves. All it takes is basically the first one to 'leave the table'. Nobody will wish to be the last! When they find there is no more money to be made on the short side, then we'll quickly be seeing who will be the 'bag' man.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:52 - ID#20359)
Steve In TO, Namaste' and a special gulp and puff to ya for the kind words...I am not
sure if Cuban cigars are allowed to be sold in the US...on that rare occasion that I get the urge for a cigar I opt for the Arturo Fuente...# 7 is a fine smokin mochine...oh yeah...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:54 - ID#257148)
A new {?} Sovereign Standard?? Help sought......
Good Evening

I have been collecting datum points on the "value" of gold at different recent times in the manner of Charles Forte. I am relating all "values" back to an English sovereign. The sovereign was first minted in about 1603, but the standard English sovereign, invariably containing 0.2354 oz of gold, has been minted in 1817. The sovereign has a 1 face value. This "value' continued, as far as I can see until the sterling went off the gold standard. My point is, if one reads in a book of history, that in 1837 an item cost 5s, one knows that cost 1/4 sovereign. If a stockbroker's clerk earned 1 per week in 1912, he took home the equivalent of one gold sovereign. As a gold sov is 0.2354oz, that's $69.00 at a gold price of $295.

I am just beginning my collecting and I shall be MOST APPRECIATIVE of anyone who can post short historical datum points to include year, item, "cost in " and source.

So, from "The Sugar Bag Years" I learn that by 1928 the unemployed benefit in NZ was about 18/- per week 18/20s of a sovereign, about $US265 today.

I have just learned that the current single Superannuation payment is NZ$165 per week, close to US$80 per week, and incidentally, the price I have been paying for sovereigns today is $NZ175 ( I was paying $165, but, ya know... ) about the same level as the unemployment benefit of a single man 60 years ago.

I would very much appreciate any datum points from fiction or non-fiction that contain the price of an item of the cost of services on a certain date. TIA

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:56 - ID#372214)
supply and demand.................

(Fri Dec 11 1998 00:59 - ID#20359)
Steve In TO, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...apparently this is the answer running currently...

Forget about all the rumors you've heard. The following has been taken directly from a letter sent to the members of the Retail Tobacco Dealers of America, Inc. from the Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Department of the Treasury.

While very definitive, keep in mind that this letter was dated June 1, 1995.

"Only persons returning directly from Cuba after a licensed visit there are permitted to bring Cuban cigars into the United States, provided the domestic value of such cigars does not exceed 100 U.S. dollars and the cigars are for the person's personal use and not for resale. Inasmuch as all other importations of Cuban cigars are illegal, you must assume that all offers to buy or sell such cigars in the United States involve cigars that are imported illegally. Contrary to what many people believe, it is illegal for travelers to bring into the United States Cuban cigars acquired in third countries ( such as Canada, England, or Mexico ) .

"It is illegal for U.S. persons to buy, sell, trade, give away, or otherwise engage in ( or offer to engage in ) transactions involving illegally - imported Cuban cigars. The penalties for doing so include, in addition to confiscation of the cigars, civil fines of up to $50,000 per violation and, in appropriate cases, criminal prosecution which may result in imprisonment.

"We recognize that the prohibitions that apply to Cuban cigars may deprive many consumers of a sought-after product. However, these prohibitions apply to all goods of Cuban origin and are an important element of the comprehensive program of economic sanctions against the Cuban government which have been in place since 1963. These sanctions have had the full support of the past seven Administrations and were further tightened by President Clinton in August 1994."

So, that tells us that if we were on a licensed visit to Cuba we could bring back a few real Cuban cigars for personal consumption. Of course, V-cigars are totally legal and taste very good! Wouldn't you really rather have a Virtual Cuban Cigar?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:04 - ID#45173)
As usual, you get to the heart of it. The man in 1904 seeing the PalmPilot and hearing of the confidence based debt-money dollar would react with gleeful astonishment to the former and wide-eyed alarm to the latter. He may have trouble assigning a fair price to the alien technology but likely he'd right away discount the fiat money to it's eventual value: zero.

Hope you recover quickly. A shot of vodka to your health.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:04 - ID#20359)
Great site here...yup...uh huh...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:05 - ID#20359)
aurator, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...these folks may be able to help in your quest...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:20 - ID#20359)
aurator, Namaste' gulp and a this useful?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:21 - ID#233199)
Please keep posting lyou "data points" as discovered.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:21 - ID#197293)
I'll scan you some images when I get back together with my friend. One quick bit of advice join a mineral club. I used to just go out and hunt on my own. I thought I knew all the good locatiions, well I knew nothing ( grin ) I have learned so much and know of so many other places to go it's wonderful. I almost pulled some very nice Emeralds right here in the good ole US of A. I still have to tumble some of them to see if there are any clear spots. Started to form a very nice small collection everything that I have hand picked nothing store bought that would not be the Rockhounds way of doing it.

Mineral clubs are great for getting you acess to sights that are not normaly open to the public. It's like being here at kitco with all the wonderful knowlage and goldbugry :- ) . I have yet to find any gold in the ground. God knows if I did find any I would not have time to post on Kitco because I would be digging the stuff ( grin )

Kind Regards

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:22 - ID#20359)
aurator, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...this looks like the jackpot...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:23 - ID#233199)
@ Aurator
I messed up the typing but I wuold like to see more of those "data points".


(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:29 - ID#45173)
US markets smell trouble
1 ) US economic slowdown trouble ( lower corp. earnings and layoffs )
2 ) World recession trouble
3 ) Deflation trouble in commodities prices
4 ) Stability trouble in N. Korea, ME, and US ( impeachment )

And those are just the obvious looming problems. Also, bank hedge fund losses short term and Y2K long term.

Down some more tomorrow, I'd guess. Maybe we get a grinding bear market from here on out.

G'Nite, all.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:38 - ID#20359)
EJ, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya for the kind and all a good evening
or day to ya...night envelopes me...thud...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:42 - ID#257148)
Many thanks. Roy Davies and his family have already provided this salty fellow with a lifetime of education, looks like it ain't over yet, by a long chalk. I'll look into that URL.

Now, if anyone's reading Trollope or Dickens or other 19th Century novels or non-fiction, I'd appreciate hearing about the datum points. When I was reading those fellas, I never paid close attention to the data I now seek. TIA

(Fri Dec 11 1998 01:45 - ID#287358)
Bottom for Copper?
A long time ago, Douglas Casey proposed that, in the long term, prices for the metal commodities ( and maybe others. I'm not sure. ) will approach zero. Reason being that more efficient ways of extracting metals will reduce costs on an on-going basis, and more efficient prospecting methods will produce new, and some bonanza-size deposits. That is the gist of it, even if not his precise thoughts. I don't know why some of you think Copper prices have bottomed. I doubt you can conclude that from studying the fundamentals.

There are far too many Copper mines producing far too much Copper these days, and some of the big, new mines are, or at least, were in a mode of increasing production significantly. Unless the North American Copper mines can miraculously lower their costs even more than they have done already, they will probably close down. The cost structure of South American mines ( and I guess we could add Indonesian mines, and others ) is far below that of N.A. mines, and costs in S.A. are still going down on their own merits and down even more in the devaluing local currencies, vis a vis the USD. Rather unscientifically, I suggest that in five years time, pure Copper mines will be producing at a cost low enough and at a rate large enough so that Copper could trade at 55 US cents per pound, and still be on a downward trend. Five years later still, the price would be down to 45 US cents per pound.

And if you are shaking your head, thinking no way is this guy accurate, I would like to suggest that you get a good grip on your head, so that it doesn't shake completely off at this next concept. This is written as a response to questions raised by Ted Butler's terrific essays on Silver, the latest of which is entitled "A Permanent Shortage of Silver," and is to be found on the G Eagle site. Ted Butler, himself, is a Treasure.

I suggest the idea that in the near future, Silver will be mined for Silver's
sake. Not only in the few pure-Silver mines, or almost-pure Silver mines that have been reborn recently or are in the slow process of coming onstream. I am suggesting that 1 ) Silver will be revalued, as Ted Butler initially suggests, to several times it's current price. Perhaps as much as 5 or 6 times current price. This will get production really kicked into gear and provide incentive ( long-awaited ) to reopen more dormant ( primarily Central and South American ) mines. and 2 ) the Silver credits in the giant Copper mines will take on significant meaning. I propose that the Copper mines that also produce Silver will be among the few survivors. And if that pricing level does not result in an essentially balanced supply-demand situation, the increasing Silver price will result in those giant Copper-Silver producers finding it worthwhile to *increase production* so as to produce more Silver, and figure the Copper produced as " Copper credits." The price of Copper will decline to 25 cents, then 10 cents, and then 5 cents, approaching Zero. A Copper mine which does not essentially become a Silver mine, or at least a Copper & Silver mine, will cease to be competitive, and thus will cease to exist. There will not be "A Permanent Shortage of Silver." There will be a shift in prices, and to whatever extent is reasonable, every step of the way, a shift toward substitutes. There will not exist a question without an answer.

And Warren Buffett does not invest for the short term. I think he is looking for a 400%--500% return, or thereabouts, which would put Silver pricing back somewhat into historical norms. Buffett will get the return he expects on Silver, even if he has to keep it until he turns 120.

*Take the time to read Ted Butler's essay.*

(Fri Dec 11 1998 03:04 - ID#257312)
Asian Market Recap

Nikkei down 402 ( 2.7% ) to 14,405. Hang Seng
down 371 ( 3.6% ) to 9943. Germany, France off
to rocky start. bed.

John Disney
(Fri Dec 11 1998 03:12 - ID#24135)
cartels ..
for Brother Oris ..
Mbeki was recently in Russia for discussion with
PM ..
Some say they discussed diamond production and the
deal with deBeers .. it has been floated that they
may have discussed a platimum group metal cartel ..
Its not the first time Ive heard this mentioned..
even though the RSA producers are very close to their
offtakers in the West ..
RSA Government is very p!ssed off with Europe over
Europe's insistance that RSA sherry and Port not be
marketed under those names ( even though the industry
is over 300 years old ) .. They are also p!ssed at US
over US trying to block them out of arms sales of
their G5 and G6 groundpounders as well as their
attack helicopter..

(Fri Dec 11 1998 03:25 - ID#386245)
Invasion force...
...approaching the California coast.

Target:Wink Museum.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 03:39 - ID#105139)
Equity Market Sell signal & Gold moving UP!!
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Select Gold has completed a 42.6% retracement of previous Gain
and in once again moving UP!!!

The Summation Index ( based on NYSE data ) has today given
a SELL signal for the Equity market )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 03:51 - ID#257312)
PPT Theory Put to Test

If there is an active Plunge Protection Team, we may see it in reverse in todays US market. The Judiciary Committee will vote for impeachment and send it to the full House. What better way to send a message than to crash this market upon approval. Wouldn't take much to send it into a tailspin. Prediction--500+ point drop in the DJIA today. Off to bed for real this time.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:00 - ID#258195)
Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates
For Thursday 10th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.16---------------4.04-------------3.73-----------------3.49
Gold Lease Rate---1.43---------------1.21-------------1.36-----------------1.51
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ----------- ( - 0.01 )

Silver Lend Rate----3.90--------------3.10-------------2.30-----------------2.00
Silver Lease Rate---1.69--------------2.15--------------2.79-----------------3.00
( Change ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( + 0.05 ) ------------ ( - 0.10 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.82-------------4.74---------------4.72---------------4.68

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:01 - ID#240155)
Cool maybe now I can get those 20 & 50 peso coins
Gold coming down. I think I switched sides sorry.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:07 - ID#26793)
Dollar and deflation worries cause flight to Swiss franc

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:26 - ID#210114)
Beaming In...........

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:29 - ID#210114)
At first, nothing happened. Then all of a sudden, nothing continued to happen.
Dow down, US$ down, Clinton possibly to be impeached, Iraq causing problems.......

And price of gold is set in stone.


Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:37 - ID#240155)
Spock, then gold is getting cheaper
for the rest of the world to buy right? Will demand go up at these newer prices? It's amazing, there is some sort of automatic price following thing going on here. The dollar drops and gold drops exactly with it.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:42 - ID#210114)
Yes, I presume people are buying; but only 'little people', not the big institutional investors.

Physical like coins etc is not going to drive the price up big time. It hasn't so far.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:55 - ID#210114)
Hello Hello.......
Is there anybody in there?

Just knock if you can hear me............

(Fri Dec 11 1998 04:59 - ID#210114)

For nearly two decades now, the governments of the OECD have, to a greater and lesser degree, facilitated the move toward a globalised economy under the neo-liberal agenda. The fundamental concepts behind this agenda are the supremacy of the market, the perceived failure of government, footloose international capital, flexibility of labour markets, downsizing, privatisation and de-regulation. Francis Castles argued that it was this emergence of globalisation under the neo-liberal free-market agenda which makes this period of globalisation different from previous periods such as the gold standard regime of 1879 - 1914. This agenda has been presented by its proponents as a natural phenomenon to which nation-states and individuals should adapt themselves. Criticism of this agenda is growing. There is now a substantial body of opinion which has argued that this agenda is undermining the societal security of the nation-state.
Since the collapse of communism, there has been an assumption of triumph for Anglo-Saxon capitalism which has brought a steel chain of ideas to economic policy thinking. It has created an overwhelming bias against government intervention in domestic economic and social affairs. There are a number of problems with the neo-liberal philosophy. Firstly, despite the enthusiasm of economists and policy makers the free market ideology has yet to prove itself. Blanca Heredia observed that two countries, Mexico and Thailand, had embraced the free-market agenda and yet had not enjoyed stable or equitable economic growth. Indeed both nations suffered a currency collapse and retarded economic growth. Stephen Bell has argued that the neo-liberal reforms conducted by the Australian Labor Government in the 1980s had failed the greater interests of the Australian community. Secondly, Tonelson argued that the globalisation debate has not been presented in a balanced mature way.
Free trade versus protectionism is how the debate is typically framed - as if anyone were advocating either removing all controls over international commerce or permitting no such commerce whatsoever. The situation is analogous to the debate over American foreign policy, with most commentators endlessly and fruitlessly debating engagement versus isolationism, and neglecting what form engagement should take.

Paul Ormerod attacked the neo-liberal agenda. His assault is all the more compelling as he is an Oxbridge trained economist and businessman. Ormerod challenges the fundamental arguments and assumptions of the neo-liberal school of economists. Firstly, he observed that Adam Smith, the doyen of neo-liberal economists, was a moral philosopher who argued that the free-market needed a moral and ethical framework in which to work. Modern disciples of Smith focus on his economic analysis and totally ignore his guiding moral principles.
Secondly, Ormerod argued that modern economists have disregarded the practical approach of the classical economists like Smith and David Ricardo. Smith and Ricardo did empirical studies of the way the world worked and built their economic models accordingly. Modern economists do the opposite. They create a model and try to alter the world into fitting the shape of that model.
Thirdly, economics is not an exact science but an imprecise art. The track record of economic modelling has been poor and yet economics and economists are regarded as some higher force whose prescriptions and dictates are not only unsolicited but are also flawed. Indeed, economists are often wrong but never in doubt. The economy itself is not a linear system where predictions can be made easily, rather it is a chaotic system whose outcomes are in many cases unpredictable.
On a practical level, Ormerod demonstrated the failures of free market principles when put into practice. Examining the currency markets, the practice of floating exchanges and currency speculation has resulted in the weakening of state controls over economic outcomes, and those controls that do remain have adverse social consequences when put into place. Using France as an example he argued that
the abolition of controls on the movement of capital on the foreign exchanges has removed a powerful weapon used by the authorities in defence of their currencies from the occasional speculative attack. Instead, they have been forced to rely on high interest rates to carry out this function. In France, the absolute priority of economic policy during the past decade has been the preservation of the value of the Franc abroad, the policy of le franc fort. To achieve this aim, interest rates have been very high. And unemployment has risen almost continuously throughout the 1980s to the current level of around 3 million.

Finally, the neo-liberal agenda encouraged short term high risk speculative investment with little employment orientated outcomes, rather than long term productive investment which provided employment and material well being for the mass of the population. The irony of this is that the worlds largest and most successful economy, the US, which was built on a long term profit perspective, has now adopted the short term profit motive which has undermined the infrastructural and educational basis for its future economic growth.
Thus, Ormerods message is clear. The neo-liberal economic model is flawed. It fails to account for the greater non-economic needs in a society. The economic reductionism which regards everything in terms of market value and profit/loss has become the key concept driving economic policy. Ormerod maintains that this would have been an anathema to Adam Smith.
Critics on the political Left have argued strongly about the perils of an unbridled free-market economy. Their greatest concerns were the effects of deflationary policy on unemployment, the danger of an unstable financial system prone to systemic uncertainty and collapse, the re-distribution of wealth from the lower and middle classes to the wealthy, and the effect that all these developments would have on the societal security of a nation.
Aarons examined the question of wealth distribution in Australia. Using data from sources as diverse as Business Review Weekly and the Department of Social Security, Aarons demonstrated an increase in the gap between the richest and poorest members of Australia society in the 1982 - 83 to 1993 - 94 period. Aarons concluded that inequality has grown rapidly over the last 30 years and advocated a new direction for economic policy which involved state intervention to reform the taxation system into something more equitable and the resumption of public infrastructure projects.
In Germany too there has also been an increase in wealth disparity. German workers are being told that their wages are too high and their conditions are too luxurious. Indeed
Germany is supposed to learn for [the neo-liberal] America, where a larger proportion of people work but only at a price of lower wages, minimal social benefits, longer working hours and worse working conditions. One of the spokesman for higher returns of capital in Germany puts the case crisply enough: A 20% reduction in gross wages is necessary to have full employment again.

The burden of taxation has moved away from business and the self employed. Taxes are being reduced for the wealthy while social services, which have benefited the less well off, have been reduced. The state thus becomes an agency for bottom-to-top redistribution.
The practical result of these policies can be observed in the US where free-market principles have always been their strongest. While the economic recovery of the 1990s has been touted by neo-liberal economist as proof of the virtues of free-market economics, the recovery has had a more sinister undertone. Shurmann and Peter-Martin described the situation
The wealthiest and most productive country in the world in the world has changed into the largest low-wage economy... In 1995 four-fifths of all male employees and workers in the United States earned 11% less an hour in real terms than they did in 1973. In other words, for the great majority, living standards have been falling for the last two decades, In the old days of the golden 1960s, John F. Kennedy summed up the expectation of rising prosperity in a simple formula: when the river rises, every boat on the water rises with it... But... the Reagan era produced a type of economy to which this metaphor no longer applies.

In contrast, Thurow observed that:
in the 1980s, all of the earnings growth in the US fell to the highest paid 20% of the workforce, with an amazing 64% of the growth going to the wealthiest 1%. The pay of the average Fortune 500 CEO [Chief Executive Officer] rose from 35 to 157 times that of the average production worker. One could argue that the capitalists had declared class warfare on labour - and were winning.

The social implications of this change are staggering. There is a growing tendency of wealthier Americans to literally wall themselves off from the problems of their fellow countrymen. The US is beginning to resemble chronically divided, class-ridden third world societies. The danger is that relatively wealthy western societies, which were once considered to be the model of development for third world countries, will become divided and impoverished. The third world may become the model for the west. Former Soviet leader Gorbachev warned of such an outcome.
Will the whole world turn into one big Brazil, into countries with complete inequality and ghettos for the rich elite? With this question you take the bull by the horns. Of course even Russia is becoming Brazil.

Despite these warnings, there are contradictory responses from global organisations of governance. UNCTAD, the United Nations trade and development agency reported in 1997 that globalisation under the neo-liberal agenda has resulted in poor growth and a redistribution of wealth from the poor to the wealthy. UNCTADs report concluded that:
The rich have gained everywhere and not just in comparison to the poorest sections of society. The hollowing out of the middle class had become a permanent feature of many developing and developed countries.

Financial liberalisation has given rise to rapid expansion of private and public debt. A new rentier class has emerged world-wide with the substantial expansion of capital flows and the rise in real interest rates. In some developing countries, debt interest payments have reached 15% of GDP.

The share of income accruing to capital has gained over labour. In four out of five developing countries, the share of wages in manufacturing value-added today is well below that in the early 1980s.

Increased job and income insecurity is spreading. As rising interest charges have eaten into business revenue, corporate restructuring, labour shedding and wage repression have become the order of the day.

Agricultural liberalisation has not always removed the urban bias or boosted incomes of farmers. Traders have reaped the main benefit.

Despite these observations, the UN remains adverse to implementing any proposals to ameliorate these excesses. Healy reported on the 1995 UN Social Summit held in Copenhagen in 1995. She observed that full employment was rejected by the Summit as being inflationary despite the fact that the full employment goal is in the UN Charter. Furthermore, financial speculation was ignored as an issue and the proposal for the Tobin tax was rejected. Healy argued that multi-national organisations and financial institutions had lobbied ( successfully ) for these changes to be abandoned.
Schurmann and Peter-Martin observed that in Germany [social] unity is crumbling even though geographically it has only just been achieved. They report that Germany has experienced a rising crime rate in recent years, and that the general German populace is beginning to imitate the US model of social dislocation and Brazilianisation. In Australias case, there is a growing unease about the course of social developments and Australias future. Hugh Mackay, in his many studies of Australian society noted a rise in tension and anxiety.
Others like Fred Argy argued that the laissez-faire agenda has overshot the limits of sensible policy Argy has advised Australian governments from since the 1960s on economic planning. He argued for a more interventionist role for government . He too made the link between economic policy and social outcomes.
I think the fetish we have about cutting this public debt, about low taxes, and about the laissez faire government approach to the economy, that its going too far...We don't have to go the hard free market route, that we can still preserve our ideals, our sense of fairness and decency - and still have an efficient economy. It's how we do these things that's important. It's how much adjustment assistance we provide for the people who are hurt. If we make the wrong choices we might have a more efficient economy but we'll have a rotten society and I don't think that's what Australians want.

Resentment about current circumstances and fear of unemployment and economic dislocation are leading to an unsettled society, and a society which is searching for scapegoats. The relentless process of downsizing by both government and business in accordance with the free-market neo-liberal agenda is fuelling this fear in western society and this fear is a threat to the society itself.
While criticism of the free market agenda from the political Left is to be expected, the great irony of the neo-liberal agenda is that social dislocation has become so acute that even previously free-market advocates are questioning the continued implementation of this agenda. George Soros, multi-billionaire and archetypal capitalist responded to the Asian currency collapse by warning that the international financial markets were fundamentally unstable and had the potential to destroy society. He concluded:
Markets can move in unexpected ways and become chaotic. Im afraid that the prevailing view, which is one of extending the market mechanism to all domains, has the potential of destroying society. Unless we review our concept of markets, our understanding of markets, they will collapse, because we are creating global markets, global financial markets, without understanding their true nature. We have this false theory that markets left to their own devices, tend towards equilibrium.

Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan added his thoughts to the debate. In response to the Asian crisis he argued that
we dont really know how this new high-tech global financial system works; we do know there has been a huge misallocation of resources; and we do know these vicious cycles will happen again, probably quite soon.
At one point the economic system appears stable; the next it behaves as though a dam has reached a breaking point, and water [ie, confidence] evacuates its reservoir.

He argued that

the architecture of the international financial system will need to be thoroughly reviewed and altered as necessary to fit the needs of the new global environment.

Others on the pro-business conservative side of politics have added their voices. US Republican Senator Connie Mack recognised in 1996 that hard-working Americans are rightly full of scepticism; they feel that something is rotten. Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, New Yorks fourth largest investment bank, proclaimed:
I must confess that I am having second thoughts as to wether we have reached the promised land. The new US economy was based on something like slash and burn restructuring strategies, which destroy for short-term gain the soil on which people depend for a living... If Americas corporate leader did not soon change course and build up manpower instead of de-skilling it, the country would lack the resources to keep up on the world market.

Political leaders have also begun to recognise the unstable and potentially dangerous nature of the current financial system. Conservative British Prime Minister John Major complained that money market transactions were at a speed and on a scale which risks running beyond the control of governments and international institutions. Italian Prime Minister Lamberto Dini, once head of the Italian Central Bank, argued that the markets should not be allowed to disrupt the economic policies of an entire country, while Gaullist French President Jacques Chirac described the financial sector as the AIDS of the world economy. In Australia too, political leaders are beginning to question the continued dominance of the international markets and the neo-liberal agenda. John Sharp, Federal Transport Minister in the Howard Government argued that there had been a blind faith in free-market forces in the implementation of policy. Former conservative Premier of Queensland, Rob Borbidge observed that such policy positions were undermining the social fabric of Australia.
Perhaps the greatest irony in this conservative criticism of globalisation under the neo-liberal free-market agenda has been the resurrection of Karl Marxs analysis on the flaws of capitalism. Cassidy observed that:
He might have been wrong about the virtues of communism, but Karl Marxs views about capitalism are being echoed by business types who would rather be flogged than labelled as lefties.

A Wall Street investment banker interviewed by Cassidy declared:

The longer I spend on Wall Street, the more convinced I am that Marx was right... I am absolutely convinced that Marxs approach is the best way to look at capitalism.

What Cassidy is referring to, is Marxs observations on the socially destructive nature of an unbridled capitalist system. Cassidys Wall Street banker is not alone. Edward Luttack is an economist from the Centre of Strategic and International Studies; a recognised right wing think-tank. He declared that
Turbo-capitalism [is] a bad joke. What Marxists argued a hundred years ago and was then absolutely wrong, is today a reality. The capitalists are becoming richer and richer, while the working class is being impoverished. Global competition is putting people through the mill and destroying the cohesiveness of society.

The neo-liberal agenda has contributed to the growing tension and unease in western society. Part of this tension and unease has been vented in the form of xenophobia and the re-emergence of far-Right wing political candidates and parties not only in Australia and the FRG but also through-out most of the western world.
This unease and xenophobia is undermining the social fabric of the nation-state and with it its national security in two ways. History has shown that communities divided along racial lines can explode in times of economic or social upheaval. The continued conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and the ethnic slaughter in Rwanda in 1994 - 95 stand as testimony to this phenomenon. The emergence of the Right wing parties in Germany wishing to exclude Balkan and Turkish refugees and migrants and the emergence of One Nation in Australia scapegoating Asian migrants it also demonstrates the extent to which societal security has been undermined by economic dislocation.
The more direct threat to national security is the dissolution of the nation-state itself. The economic and political collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by its dissolution into its constituent states. As economic and social conditions become more acute, different communities within a nation-state become convinced that their salvation will be provided if they break away from the remainder of their society. Schurmann and Peter-Martin identified the separatist movements within not only within Canada and Italy, but also in Belgium and the Carribean.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:01 - ID#224230)
I get the impression from your post that you think that gold's apparent inability to go either up or down is perhaps ..... illogical ?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:01 - ID#210114)

The nation-state and the societal aspects of national security has found itself to be under threat from the growth of racial intolerance through economic dislocation. I have argued that this is primarily a result of the western worlds implementation of the neo-liberal agenda. Is then the neo-liberal agenda a threat to democracy itself? This potential threat could manifest itself in one of two ways.
As was discussed in Chapter 4, one of the reasons for the implementation of the Marshall Plan in Europe and particularly in Western Germany was an attempt to provide a prosperous foundation for the re-establishment of democracy in the FRG. The US policy planners of the time remembered the impact of the Great Depression and how this had undermined the establishment of democracy under the Weimar Republic. Beck warned that this was still highly relevant.
Only people with a home and a secure job, and therefore an assured material future, are citizens who will adopt democracy and make it a living reality. The simple truth is that without material security there is no political freedom, no democracy, and therefore a threat to everyone from new and old totalitarian regimes and ideologies.

It is interesting to note, that voter participation has been steadily deteriorating in the past two decades. Meanwhile those who do vote are turning increasingly to authoritarian Right wing parties such as Le Pens National Front in France, the Republikaner Party in Australia and One Nation in Australia. It is my view that there is no coincidence in the fact that the western world has returned to the same sound finance neo-liberal global economic polices and that we are now experiencing the same political results.
The second threat to democracy is the danger of a global economic fascism developing. Governments of the nation-state are increasingly being called to account by the worlds financial markets. There is a clash between the democratic process based as it is on the nation-state and the global capitalist economy. The Economist noted:
The supreme difficulty of our generation... is that our achievements on the economic plane of life have outstripped our progress on the political plane to such an extent that our economics and politics are perpetually falling out of gear with each other. On the economic plane, the world has been organised into a single all embracing unit of activity. On the political plane, it has remained... partitioned. The tension between these two antithetical tendencies has been producing a series of jolts and jars and smashes in the social life of humanity.

What is disturbing about this analysis its timing. This was written in 1930 at the start of the Great Depression which killed democracy in Germany, brought Hitler to power, and helped unleash the Second World War. UNCTAD also warned that:
The 1920s and 1930s provide a stark and disturbing reminder of just how quickly faith in the markets and openness can be overwhelmed by political events. Nor should there be any doubt that the burden of such international economic disintegration would once again be borne by those who could least afford it.

On a more direct level, Strange argued that a democratic deficit has appeared in the global economy. Indeed:
The long struggle for liberty and accountability gradually made at least some states accountability to the people, but globalisation, by shifting power from states to firms, has allowed international bureaucracies to undermine that accountability. None of the new non-state authorities are accountable; few are even transparent. There is a democratic deficit, not only in Europe, but in America, Japan - the entire globalised economy.

Former secretary of the UN Boutros Boutros-Ghali expressed similar reservations.
That is the real danger. Will globalisation be steered by an authoritarian or a democratic system? We urgently need an agenda, a world plan for democratisation... What use is it to us, if democracy is defended in a few countries, while the global system is directed by an authoritarian system, therefore by technocrats?

Sasson asked do we want the global capital markets to exercise this discipline over governments? And to do so at all costs - jobs, wages, safety health - and without public debate? Sasson observed that the decisions of the capital markets are driven by individuals who owned capital. Those less wealthy, indeed the majority of our respective societies, were not represented in the judgements of the markets. This is fundamentally undemocratic. The markets make judgements and exercise power for the wealthy over government who are supposed to be accountable to all of their citizens, wealthy or not.
Nico Colchester reviewed the issue of what he called the new stateless elite. He noted that the newly monied beneficiaries of the global economy had absolved themselves of their civic responsibilities. In comparison to the nouvou riche, the old aristocracy at least had a sense of noblesse oblige; a paternalist duty to its underlings. The new elites feel no such compulsion and yet wield substantial power through the actions of financial markets and institutions.
This is the key issue; power and responsibility. If governments of the nation-state are to be held responsible by their citizens for the fundamental questions of unemployment, prosperity and the standard of living, then they must retain the power to act in these areas. If they are to lose this power to the markets, then there must be some mechanism to ensure that the markets are accountable to all the people, not just the wealthy elites. Otherwise the political process will become the spectacle of impotence.
The last period of globalisation ended in the financial collapse of the Great Depression and the outbreak of war. The contradiction between capitalism and democracy facilitated its own destruction. Then too democracy was perceived to be threatened by the globalised market place.
On April 29 1938 President Roosevelt told Congress the statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity. American business might be forced to turn to some form of disguised Fascistic dictatorship announced H. W. Prentiss, former president of the National Association of Manufacturers. President Roosevelt took note of it by declaring that the liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism... Clearly, the nation-state must retain the power to act over the global economy, or a global democratic structure needs to be put in place to ensure democratic outcomes. The primacy of politics must be restored.
Lester Thurow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist also provided a critique of the current neo-liberal agenda. His criticisms were broad and tended to extrapolate current trends. Nonetheless, he raised many of the same points as Schurman & Peter-Martin, Ormerod and Latham. Thurow took a much broader historical canvas than his colleges and made a link which the other authors did not. While Schurman and Peter-Martin drew comparisons to the 1930s, Thurow looked back to the days of the Roman Empire and the Dark Ages. Thurow argued that the fall of previous civilisations was precipitated when the elites of those civilisations practiced gross elf indulgence and abandoned their commitment to the public good. He made a comparison with todays society.
In our societies just as in the Dark Ages, the private is gradually squeezing out the public. In 1970 twice as much money was spent on public policemen as on private policemen. By 1990 the revers was true... In the Dark Ages unwalled cities and free citizens were replaced by walled manor houses and serfs... Today walled, gated, and guarded communities are once again on the rise. As the Roman Empire slid into the depths of the Dark Ages, the private gradually squeezed out the public until the effectively the private sector swallowed everything and the public sector disappeared. The intense devotion of the Romans to the res publica was lost.

Economically speaking, the comparison is equally disturbing:

People quit building and maintaining. With the exception of the cathedrals no stone buildings were built for ten centuries. Investment became alien and wealth was lavishly squandered rather than used to promote a better future. Roman water and sewer systems were abandoned and had to be re-invented more than a thousand years later. In our society public infrastructure spending has been cut in half in two decades.

While Thurows arguments may be considered somewhat alarmist, there is logic to his position.
With such a sustained attack on the neo-liberal globalised model, it important to establish or perhaps to re-iterate that it is not globalisation per se that is the problem. It is globalisation under its current neo-liberal agenda. Shurmann and Peter-Martin concluded:
worldwide economic integration also contains immense opportunities. The fantastic growth of productivity could just as well be used to free more and more people from poverty... But then the main task would be to steer the world-market race away from its suicidal course into social paths congenial to democracy, and to replace the globalisation of injustice with development in the direction of greater social equality.

The final word I will give to Susan Strange.
If, as I have argued, the states power to provide economic and financial stability, to protect the vulnerable in society, and to preserve the environment has been weakened, society is at the mercy of business. That is not a prospect I suspect most Europeans and many Americans really want for their children and their grandchildren in the years to come.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:02 - ID#210114)
A central part of this thesis has been the examination of Germanys social market economy and its attempt to provide a balance between efficient economic outcomes and social justice. While such a model is not flawless, there is a strong argument to be made that it is in many ways inherently superior to the neo-liberal model. Michel Albert, President of AGF, Frances largest insurance company, published in 1993 Capitalism vs. Capitalism; a critique of the neo-liberal agenda. He too identified the many problems; its short -termism, its disruption of the social fabric, its potential to promote racial tensions within societies, its fickle financial markets, and its growing disparity between poor and wealthy. Despite its problems, he still advocated Modell Deutschland as the alternative. He noted that the social market economy produced the physical and social infrastructure needed to sustain capitalism in the long term. He noted the co-operative labour/management relations which supported economic prosperity and social cohesion. He also observed the lower poverty levels in the FRG compared to the United States. To Albert, there was no question as to which economic model was superior. Like Adam Smith, Albert argued that capitalism needed a moral framework.
In Alberts view, one of the key factors in the success of the social market economy has been the greater acceptance of social responsibility by Europeans compared to the emphasis on the individual in the Anglo-Saxon economies. Furthermore, Albert recognised the practical upshot of this social responsibility; the acceptance of higher taxes to pay for publicly funded social support. His public mea culpa: I should stop here, and make a full and frank admission... i.e. a top rate of 55% income tax might just be preferable to a top rate of 33%.
Like Zogbaum, Albert noted that the neo-liberal agenda is undermining the social market economy. With the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, left of centre political thought is in a certain degree of dis-repute. Reaganomics is highly regarded in Eastern Europe and the social market economy has been hamstrung in its challenge to the neo-liberal agenda. Albert expanded on this in a colourful way.
It is clear that Rhine capitalism, quietly competent and judiciously even handed, has failed to make much of an impression on world opinion. It is in fact so utterly devoid of glamour and panache that, in media terms, it is a turn-off and its economic success a non-story... And so the Rhine tortoise wins the race, but nobody notices - the press corps is far too busy interviewing the American hare. The neo-liberal American model has style, if not substance; it possesses star quality... As in the circus, the threat of real harm makes the audience applaud all the more at the end.

Despite this, Albert contended that it was up to the new Europe, united in the form of the EU, to challenge the dominance of the Anglo-Saxon neo-liberal agenda. Indeed  we will have all the means at our disposal to choose the best possible socioeconomic system. The theme of choice is a key point of Alberts conclusion. The United States of Europe can do better than the United States of America, if we put our minds to it. It is entirely up to us, each of us; after all, tomorrow will be decided today.
Shurmann and Peter-Martin also saw Europe as the key actor in the challenge against the neo-liberal agenda. They advocated a ten point plan based on the actions of the European Union which included constraints on currency trading and the strengthening of social protection if deregulation was to be continued. Their argument was clear:
The aim... should be to counter destructive Anglo-American neo-liberalism with a potent and viable European alternative...A united Europe, resting on a market of some 400 million consumers, would have the capacity to develop a new economic policy first internally and later externally too, one that was closer to the principles of John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig Erhard than those of Milton Friedman and von Hayek. In the unfettered global capitalism, only a United Europe could push through new rules providing for a greater social balance and ecological restructuring.

Thus, there are alternatives to the neo-liberal model. The choice needs to be made by the nation-states of the world as to which economic and social model is most appropriate for the twenty-first century.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:05 - ID#210114)
Highly illogical Captain. When gold goes down, a reason is always given; weak Yen for example. But when the Yen strengthens, gold does not strenghten with it.

Perhaps we should energise gold within the di-lithium crystal chamber.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:05 - ID#26793)
"Dow down, dollar down, but the price of gold is set in stone."
That is the point I have been making these past years, The purchasing power of gold is increasing, forget about the price, just enjoy it. If we get real lucky we will buy twice as many "things" and have a tax loss to boot.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:06 - ID#403335)
Bill Fleckstein On Gold
Market Rap with Bill Fleckenstein

"More on gold... I've received some e-mail recently about gold, asking what it's going to do and whether inflation or deflation is better. I'll reiterate what I've said many times in the past: Gold is an asset that people buy when they lose confidence in their leaders or their

currency, they fear for their future or things like that. It's a low-confidence-in-the-authorities type of asset.

It's difficult to believe that gold will rise when the stock market is going ballistic. I hadn't been bullish on gold until the stock market broke last August. I think that gold will do well only after people begin to see the stock market as risky - that is it not a risk-free place to make money. I don't think it makes a heck of a lot of difference whether it's deflation or inflation, because if we have deflation in this country it will be fought by printing money.

The bottom line is, our currency is going to be very weak, and at some point as the world decides it doesn't want to own dollars, it may decide to buy gold. The case for gold is this: It's an alternative form of money, it is cheap relative to the cost of production, and it is universally hated and "under owned." So it's an attractive risk-reward type idea. Will it work? I don't know. But it's a hell of a lot better risk-reward trade than the stock market. Now, is it going to be a good idea for the next 15 minutes? No. It's an idea that might work over the next couple of years. But it ain't going to work until stocks stop going up for the reasons I already described.

It is interesting that precious metals ( silver, gold, palladium and platinum ) have held up much better than the industrial-land agricultural commodities. They are starting to differentiate themselves as stores of value as opposed to just industrial commodities. How they do going forward remains to be seen, but I think there is a differentiating process starting."

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:06 - ID#203137)
We are a bunch of mugs! You better believe it!. Looks like nothing will get Gold up. So I guess it's going to tank soon. hate to say it , cause I'm long at 299.5 with big position and so are the rest of us all waiting for a few bucks up to bail out. Well I don't think it's happening F--- the Gold -- it's a mugs game! With all that's going on and I've followed Gold for 25 years, not exactly Golbug, but always believed that it is a wise move to park some of % in Gold at times like these, but it's a different ball game now. etter put your money in drugs if you want it to grow --- sorry fellas but if anything psses you off it's a situation like Gold at present-- everythings sh-t right now, Cash, Stocks ,property, shares, and Gold. Just face it we can't beat it.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:08 - ID#240155)
I'm watching the dollar fall against various currencies
and I am switching between charts for dmz8 jyz8 sfz8 and such.

Is there a symbol to show the dollar in relation to all the other currencies in one chart, that is rather than watch marks or yens rise can i look at one chart and see the dollar fall? What symbol might that be?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:08 - ID#403335)
That Should be Fleckenstein

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:09 - ID#210114)
Please re-submit URL for Fleckstein.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:11 - ID#210114)

The globalisation thesis argues that the world is converging through the globalisation process and that his process is irreversible. Driven by the conservative neo-liberal economic agenda, globalisation has threatened or indeed destroyed the left-of-centre social democratic agenda.
Susan Strange has attacked those in the IR discipline whom she dubbed the naysayers. They argued that nothing has really changed, the international scene remains the same despite the globaloney myth. The state still exists, and multi-national corporations ( MNCs ) still have a national origin. Strange attacked the Realist position of these IR naysayers.
Always, the state was the primary focus of attention and was often habitually treated as a unitary actor. Because discussion of globalisation introduces other actors - markets and firms and other forces of change, like technology, the media, and communications - such discussion implies the growing obsolescence of the study of international relations.


The globaloney school is not only wrong, but by trying to persuade people that nothing has changed, is also encouraging an ostrich-like response to recent changes in the world economy.

Bramble examined the implications of globalisation for a labourist/social democratic position. He identified three perspectives. Firstly, the pro-convergence neo-liberal position; the nation-state is dead: the social democratic project is dead: long live globalism. Secondly, the social democratic position; the nation-state can play a role in international governance. Finally the Marxist position; the role of the nation-state is still crucial but the social democratic project is in steady decline.
Bramble observed that the social democratic project is inherently nationalist. It requires the state to be not only responsible for a prosperous economy but to also take a pro-active role through regulation to support the working class and the unemployed. That is, the capitalist system needs a structure by which to ensure that access to prosperity exists for everyone within a society; in this case the nation-state. Thus, if the power and sovereignty of the nation-state is undermined through globalisation, then the social democratic project is also undermined.
The implication is that any notion that social democracy can capture the state and exercise significant leverage over key economic flows is bankrupt... In practice, this interpretation suggests that governments are now required to develop inviting domestic environments of low taxes, effective infrastructure, and well educated but docile labour in the name of competitive advantage, to enable maximum opportunities for profit making in order to attract footloose MNCs. These trends are strongly encouraged by the key agencies of internationalised capitalism, the IMF [International Monetary Fund] and the World Bank, which urge the dismantling of all remnants of previous nationalist policies of import substitution and state planning to permit unfettered access by Western banks and international credit flows.

This perspective is frequently put forward by those who support the neo-liberal globalised agenda. Their strategy is to argue TINA ( There Is No Alternative ) .
Kenichi Ohmae supports this position. I will briefly review one of Ohmaes pieces in order to establish this schools thinking. According to Ohmae, Government is a hindrance to the global economy. They simply just get in the way. The nation-state and its governments are obsolete. Indeed:
we are witnessing... the cumulative effect of fundamental changes in the currents of economic activity around the globe... Put simply, in terms of real flows of economic activity, nation-states have already lost their role as meaningful units of participation in the global economy of todays borderless world.

Ohmaes free-market rhetoric continued with his observations about the heavy hand of government and that government has... become an enemy of the people at large.  Ohmae advocates the invisible hand of the market and the convergence of the world economically and culturally into a model of California -ization. Ohmae argued that nation-states are less and less able to dictate individual choices and that they should make the hard and necessary choices for inclusion the global economy.
The second position identified by Bramble was that globalisation is overblown: the social democratic proposal can be renovated at an international level. Those who support this position argue that globalisation is exaggerated and that the nation-state still exercises considerable power. Bramble cited Hirst and Thompson who challenged the assumption of globalisations all pervasivesness. They argued that globalisation is not new; it existed albeit in a different form during the days of the British Empire and through the existence of the gold standard regime ( 1879 - 1914 ) . Furthermore they illustrate that globalisation is not global. Indeed it centres primarily on the United States, Europe, Japan and the financial centres of Hong Kong and Singapore. Almost all of the MNCs are based in the same regions and few are truly transnational. They remain firmly rooted within their respective nation-state. Thus, they contend that globalisation is not a new feature on the world scene, and nor is it something that cannot be reversed. It has not reached the stage of ungovernability.
Hirst and Thompson argued that the social democratic project can be renovated at an international level through one of two alternatives. Firstly, they argued that governments should expand the use and importance of international summits to co-ordinate economic co-operation. They suggest the following for a potential structure.
- An agreement between the major advanced states, and particularly the U.S., Germany and Japan.

- States creating international regulatory agencies for some specific dimension of economic activity, like the World Trade Organisation.

- Control of large economic areas by trade blocs such as the European Union ( EU ) or the North American Free Trade Area partnerships ( NAFTA ) .

- National level policies that balance co-operation and competition between firms and the major social interests;

- and regional level policies of providing collective services to industrial districts.

The second alternative is to include social provisions within the charters of new international economic agreements. Thus, reprehensible practices such as child labour and the military repression of unionism could be outlawed. This would circumvent any race to the bottom in terms of working peoples wages and conditions.
Finally, Bramble provides a summary of the Marxist position. Bramble argued that although Marxist analysis agreed with many aspects of the social democratic analysis of globalisation, they reject the social democrats solution arguing for a more pro-active involvement by western labour movements. Marxists argued that although unions and the labour movement were critical in the establishment and success of social democratic models such as Sweden, they suffered tremendously in the East Asian economic miracle where the active suppression of the union movement was widespread. Furthermore they critique the international governance model by arguing that it is the Maastricht Treaty which is driving the austerity agenda in Europe at this present time. Harman concluded that the world is caught in a
messy half world in which there is free trade and protectionism, reliance on the state and cutting loose form the state, peaceful competition between multi-national firms and military conflicts between states to which some of them are connected.


we have therefore moved beyond straight forward national state capitalism but are not yet in an era of either regional state capitalism nor fully fledged internationalism.

The Marxist prognosis is bleak.

Political stability can only re-emerge in conditions of sustained economic upswing or if one state becomes strong enough to impose its will on all others ( as in the Cold War ) . The former does not appear likely and the latter may only emerge in the aftermath of a third world war.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:12 - ID#210114)

The key theme is that of choice. While the neo-liberal pro-market school argue TINA, others argue that there are alternatives. The decision to implement the neo-liberal agenda has in itself been a choice. It was the Thatcher/Reagan revolution which heralded the greater integration of the world economy through their policies of deregulation. It was both the Australian and New Zealand Labor/Labour Governments which embarked upon a neo-liberal reform agenda. Holton argued that while in some cases the nation-state has been seen as resistant to globalisation in many cases the nation-state has facilitated it. Indeed nation-states have been largely responsible for the setting up of the UN, the World Health Organisation, the World Bank and so forth. While Holton argued that the global economy was less anarchic than commonly believed he did concede than some states were too poor regulate capital. He cited the example of the Allende Government. It was toppled with the support of multi-national companies who had been threatened by the Governments economic agenda. Those who critique globalisation also concede that the nation-state has facilitated the change. Summy observed:
The state stands as the meat in the sandwich between these two opposing forces. [Particularism and globalisation]. It is losing its capacity to impose its sovereign will as many of its functions are being appropriated by other actors. It is even assisting in its own demise by opening itself to the internationalisation of business, trade and finance through deregulation and privatisation.

Thus, supporters and detractors of globalisation concur that the nation-state itself has facilitated the change. A choice was made. The state continues to have a role. Some would argue that this role is diminished, others would argue that the states role is still strong though in a different way than in the past.
Linda Weiss has examined these debates in The Myth of the Powerless State. Weiss argued that the state retains the power to act in the global economy. She challenged the notion that the global financial markets have achieved the dominant status to which they have attributed. Weiss argued that the world is in a period of state denial where the state is being weakened, hollowed out, carved up, toppled or buried. Furthermore, those who advocate the triumph of globalism and the diminution of the state are, in Weiss view, quite blind to the variety of state responses to international pressures, and to the sources and consequences of that variety for national prosperity. Importantly, Weiss identifies the neo-liberal economic agenda which is now dominating the world is a manifestation of the Anglo-American economic culture.
The phenomenon of state denial has, of course, long roots in the tendency in social science to ignore or conceptually de-emphasise the states importance in structuring social relations.. Although at times influential in culturally divers settings, state denial has none the less remained a fundamentally Anglo-American institution.

Weiss identified a strong element of zeitgeist in the neo-liberal agenda by observing the element of fashion in economic policy. Equally important has been the willingness of government to undermine its own position in order to push through neo-liberal policy.
Political leaders... have themselves played a large part in contributing to this view of government helplessness in the face of global trends. In canvassing support for policies lacking popular appeal, many OECD governments have sought to sell their policies of retrenchment to the electorate as somehow being forced on them by global economic trends over which they have no control, a point with which even the free markets champion, The Economist, concurs.

Weiss emphasises the theme of choice in her work. She goes on to examine the position of Japan, Germany and other successful alternative models of capitalism to emphasise her claim. Her arguments are mirrored by others. Ray Broomhill also believes that the death of the state has been greatly exaggerated. He argued that the state does remain capable of maintaining a degree of political autonomy and there are certainly definite limits to the ability of transnational capital to prescribe or determine the political outcomes within state structures.
Heredia examined the question of state intervention. While she too argued that Government policy options were reduced in the current economic and political climate, she maintained that choice was still available, and gave the example of Chile which had achieved a good degree of economic success and had instituted controls on capital movements. Interestingly, she observed that the although the anti-state ideology which Linda Weiss identified remains entrenched, it has become more tempered and balanced in recent years. Heredia concluded that it was not the size of Government intervention that mattered, but its quality.
Thus there is a large divergence in the arguments about globalisation. From all pervasive to over exaggerated, globalisation has nonetheless become a key theme in the current political, economic, sociological and IR debates. Ultimately, there is still choice available to the nation-state . To conclude, I will provide an expurgated version of Weiss conclusions.
Globalisation is a big idea resting on slim foundations. Its main basis would seem to be the financial deregulation of the post-Bretton Woods era. But big ideas excite. This may partly explain why enthusiasm has transcended the evidence... The nation-state retains its importance as a political and economic actor. So rather than a uniformity of national responses producing convergence on a single neo-liberal model, we can expect to find a firming up of the different varieties of capitalism with their correspondingly varied state capacities for domestic adjustment... It seems likely that as we move into the twenty-first century, the ability of nation-states to adapt to internationalisation ( so-called globalisation ) will continue to heighten rather than diminish national differences in state capacity and the associated advantages of national economic co-ordination.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:17 - ID#240155)
Or are they just decorative. Also, could you possible say some more bad things about precious metals in general? The POG jumped .50 when you posted your last.

Sorry, it's very late for me, and in an hour and a half I can go home and sleep.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:24 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now.............
Live Long and Prosper.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:31 - ID#24066)
Use the dollar index i.e. DXZ8.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:35 - ID#403335)
Spock - Fleckenstein URL

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:43 - ID#240155)
Thank you!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:51 - ID#288264)
Dec 22/98
Heard this on Chuck Harder radio. All gas stations must be Y2K compliant by DEC 22/98 or drain all tanks and close down forever. All the big oil companies with their own stations will be compliant. I heard something as to an $11000 fine if they do not close down but did not hear the time frame for the fine... a day, a month ??? Independents will get it socked to em. Little guy gets it again right in the choppers.

They then gave the percentage of closures possible for each state.

New York was in the high seventies, Wyoming was the most compliant only 5% closings. Most were in the 30% to the 50%.

It was also stated that this was in USA today yesterday. I did not see it. Did anyone else see or hear this to enlighten further?

Actually you can tune in to and get the yesterdays playback to hear this.

John Disney
(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:58 - ID#24135)
commodities ..
to all ..
The recent proposition put forward that the price
of copper would go to zero doesnt work for me..
.. If that were the case .. then the same forces
acting on the copper price .. ie technology in the
form of cheaper refining and easier discovery of
large deposits .. would also act on the silver
price .. and silver would also go to zero .. along
with all other commodities .. beef would be cloned
cheaply .. wheat would be genetically altered ..
.. problem is .. if faced with this forecast.. who
in the world would INVEST in a copper mine .. or
a cattle ranch ..

On the other hand .. Selby's argument that the price
of a commodity approaches its cost of production seems
correct .. for example the gold price last high was
in the beginning of 1996.. at that time the rand was
stable and at 3.8 .. the rand slide then commenced ..
the slide in the gold price was coincident..
.. A trend line through both the rand and the gold
price shows almost exactly the same slope .. about
1.15 t0 1.2 per year since 1996. A similar slide in
the Aussie dollar occurred more or less at the same
Thus you can argue that gold wont start to rise
until the rand and the aussie $ start to firm.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 05:58 - ID#185448)
Think Ill issue a warrant: If Gold leaves the corridor between 290 and 295 you double your money, if it stays within, it expires worthless.

Like your overoptimism.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:14 - ID#185448)
Was uptown the other day . Dealer #1 in town is out of eagles and brittanias. Krands only in very bad condition. Look, as if John Disney had thrown them into the garbage.

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:21 - ID#371242)
God bless you all today
I think a prayer should be said today maybe later, for all the bad out there

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:21 - ID#371242)
Gob bless you all today
I think a prayer should be said today maybe later, for all the bad out there

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:22 - ID#371242)
God bless you all today
I think a prayer should be said today maybe later, for all the bad out there

(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:28 - ID#185448)
The Priest
I agree that there is a lot of bad out there. But it looks as if you have a nervous "Submit"-finger. Or do you live in the Vienna-aerea and shiver with that f****** cold?

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:30 - ID#371242)
Instead of technical analysis
one should chart the chaos indictor that is probably the best indictor to the market and can give gold a real shot in the arm


(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:50 - ID#341189)
The ruble is back up over 21 against the dollar this morning and falling.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:57 - ID#147201)
longj re Bingham Canyon
Last I heard ( 2 years ago ) Rio Tinto ( RTZ ) owned what was Kennecot copper properties. Evidently you know something about mineralogy. I have similar info re Cu and Au. email is cdevoto@abts,net

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 06:58 - ID#371242)
Instead of technical analysis
one should chart the chaos indicator that is probably the best indictor to the market and can give gold a real shot in the arm


(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:03 - ID#147201)
ChasAbar re au specimen
Sorry to take up band width, but have lost some emails. If you are serious about 200#+/- gold specimen, let me know. I can locate some up to 317 oz and above. email-

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:06 - ID#147201)
BigFisherman re your 12/10 at 19:57
Platinum nuggets will bring $1000 and up per oz. You have to know where the buyers are, but don't take a wooden nickel. If you want to discuss-

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:28 - ID#412172)
WJC I am a Palestinian Photo
What a strange week its turning out to be:

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:29 - ID#20359)
Indians smuggling Chinese nationals into the USA through Canada...who woulda thunk it...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:33 - ID#20359)
Murdering America's children without the killing...READ THIS...amazing...your tax dollars at work...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:36 - ID#333127)
gold digest
Anybody else unable to bring up J.Dines comments listed on gold digest site. Past mkt. letters also unavailable????

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:41 - ID#253418)
A little disjointed tonight
Lacking direction seems to be the best way to sum up the metals tonight. Gold basis Februrary was turned back at 297 which was the consolidation area that followed that surprise shot, when was it - Monday.??? South African golds which are having a horrible time of late are down dispite the US gold shares rally yesterday. European equity markets are in the dumps following down drafts in Asia. The S&P Globex is just a little lower. A break of 1150 on the S&P 500 ( about 150 ) points away would spell trouble for that index and give reason to believe we are in for an extended correction.

One might conclude that gold shares would rally on a continued fall in general equities, but I don't think it will be that easy - not yet, at least. Seems gold is more closely tied to the yen than anything else and that is drifting lower.

I'll be surprised if gold trades out of a 297/295 range today and doubt the XAU will breach 70.

Lots of bullish talk between THC and Bill Murphy over on the Silicon Investor Board under the "Dutch" thread, it'll be a real surprise to me if silver goes anywhere better than sideways. The deflationary climate and contracting industrial activity picture along with rising inventories arques against it to me. Maybe Buffett's broker is playing games - but I am suspicious of that idea.

Directionaless, uninspired random noise is the best way to describe the metal's picture- IMHO. Deflationary trends, contracting industrial activity, tax loss selling and a weaker yen are the overriding constraining influences.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:44 - ID#350194)
Flying Kites
( Instead of consistantly posting inanities )
one should fly a kite that is probably the best relaxation for a feeble brain, it won't affect the market and can won't affect gold but it is better for you thangiving yourself a real shot in the arm.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:48 - ID#20359)
Another who woulda thunk is an excellent article...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:51 - ID#259221)
Words for today from yesterday
I will let these words of wisdom penned by Professor Alexander Tytler over 200 years ago while we ( USA ) were still a British colony speak for themselves:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependence back again into bondage."

THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:55 - ID#357334)
is your post directed to me

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:59 - ID#20359)
"An equal application of law to every condition of man is fundamental." --Thomas Jefferson

(Fri Dec 11 1998 07:59 - ID#249244)
John Disney, those Russian damn quotas...
Brother John,

Are there any quotas set by RSA government on export of SA PMs?
I think the answer is no, but would like your confirmation...

Some thought on Friday morninig:

Quota which limits transfer of something to somebody is
by itself a direct proof that this something is considered
to be "special", yes? AND SO, I can ask myself a logical
question - how in the hell can I play with such "something"
using rules of free market when this something is not
really free - IT IS SOMETHING SPECIAL for the government of
the country which is a main supplier of this "something"...

That is not good for fundamentals....

Would you agree with such logic in regard to palladium?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:00 - ID#26793)
Morning currency news; note Switzerland and Norway

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:05 - ID#26793)
Canadian gold stock news and comment

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:30 - ID#350194)
@Tolerant1 and the new 'Golden Trade from China'
"I am proud to announce the crippling of another large, complex organization trafficking in human beings, this one using Northern American Indian territory to attempt to evade the law," she said.
( Reread the above sentence. Whew - Talk about getting your own point of view over in a concise yet leading ( slanted ) manner! )

The officials said the ring brought the Chinese nationals into
Toronto or Vancouver using fraudulent documents.
The immigrants ( ? ) were taken to the Canadian border city of
Cornwall, Ontario, transported across the St. Lawrence River by
boat to the Indian reservation in upstate New York and then
driven to New York City, the officials said.

( Are you complaining T1 - I hope not! This will prevent wage inflation from breaking out and also there will be less waiting for service in your local Chinese restaurants. )
HOWEVER, since this was a highly organized plot originating in Communist China, could it be that many of these 'immigrants' are part of a soon to be unified 'fifth column' of subversives? China, as we know, has been pulling off some pretty sneaky operations against the USA lately. Almost TOTALLY unimpeded I might add. Has the largest remaining anti-American Communist Government suddenly forgotten its roots in the last ten years, I ask you, just because America and the world are in a feel good post cold war euphoria?

"They said the ring collected about $47,000 per person, or a total of about $170 million. They conceded the vast Indian reservation land along the river was lightly patrolled and vulnerable to smugglers."

These same Indians were smuggling TONS of cigarrettes into highly taxed Canada a few years ago and the Canadain police and army were confronting them to the point that the whole resrve was an armed camp. To prevent bloodshed the Canadian Government caved in and LOWERED the cigarrette taxes substantially to the point that the smuggling was not worth it anymore. The Mohawks have merely found a new, highly lucrative 'commodity' with which they can utilize their skills to maximum gain.

By the way - Did the most important part of the story is always left out. This self-praising official and law enforcement agency neglect to mention how many of the 3,600 they have rounded up and deported and just how many of these potential germ spreading terriorists remain at large in New York City. ( Better boycott the soup - or you too may be experiencing the latest case of 'The Asian Flu' at a restaurant or take-out close to you! )
Food For Thought Folks! ;-0

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:33 - ID#256365)
questions from the newbie
1 ) $TYX is the yield on thirty year treasury bonds right?

2 ) as this goes lower it indicates higher demand for Treasury bonds?

3 ) the higher demand tends to indicate flight to quality?

4 ) we hope, we think, that would cause price of gold to go up?

thanks for any help and thanks very much to those who gave me recommendations on how to keep my silver in good condition

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:39 - ID#253418)
Gold opening almost $2 lower??
Anybody else see that quote - spells trouble if it isn't reversed. Early week buyers heading for the exit??

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:41 - ID#350194)
@ T.W.Giles
From the 'Daily Yap' by T.W.Giles - ( Latest URL posted by T1 )
"The root of this
problem lies not with the media itself, but with the propensities of many Americans
to accept what they read only from a single perspective, and to crystallize and
polarize their thoughts before they complete a thorough reading of the work. The
Post preys upon this evolved tendency of modern man, attempting to polarize for
profit, but succeeds more eerily at pitting man against man in hate rather than in
reasoned discussion."
Don't Worry Be Happy! The World Is Evolving As It Should. Believe It Or Not! ;-= )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:43 - ID#35571)
Dead man's curve!!!

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:44 - ID#344389)
Kitco Quotes
Are Kitco Quotes working?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:47 - ID#317193)
Gollum...are you going to shake out some weak longs??


(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:51 - ID#20359)
Mooney, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I found the article comical and sad at the
same time...first off...where did these clowns get $47,000@?...anyone with that kind of money could easily seek asylum and proceed through the proper channels once they had gotten out of where ever it was they started from...

I see it as another reason to get rid of Clintler and get TOUGH with China...VERY tough with China...brutally TOUGH with China...

For what Clintler has done...America will pay a terrible and horrible price...the Chinese government is no friend to America and as has been proven over and over again the Chinese government is a crushing... murdering hammer of totalitarian dictators...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:51 - ID#35571)
The stochastics of Dead Man's Curve:

Casey Jones plunges into the gorge, and from the ashes rises....The Phoenix!!!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:54 - ID#317193)
Gollum.....this is why I only have a "position" and not a fill blow investment....
What an opportunity.....go golf...even in Nebraska!


(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:55 - ID#317193)
that is blown not blow....or is it blow?

Doctor Gold
(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:55 - ID#272136)
Gold down $120 an oz.
Let's get the Kitco quotes fired up.....

(Fri Dec 11 1998 08:58 - ID#367411)
To Jim re silver inventories
Hi Jim!

I'm glad to see you're still able to remain critical ( ="rational" ) about the market in PMs....many including myself get emotional on this subject.......

Now, however I am somewhat surprised to see your worries about the silver inventories....Please take a look at the historical inventory graph at the following site:

1993: 275M ounces
1996: 150M
1997: 100M added ( Wilmington trust ) takes us to 200M
1998: 75M or so?

What is the long term trend?

Martin A would say that someone is hoarding and that the supply is still there......but what about the supply deficit then??

Any other thoughts on this issue??


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:00 - ID#35571)
Who pulls the Phoenix from the wreck?

The Silver Falcon:

How do we know the time is near?

The Second Spike:

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:00 - ID#317193)
Pray tell...Why does the Swiss franc do so well when deflation in commodities abounds?
Because it is viewed as a gold backed currency...the only one...for ANOTHER few weeks.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:03 - ID#350194)
The End Is Near!
This comment from an investor/advisor ON a HUGE down-day!:
"Cisco has a CY98 P/E in the 60+ range, while most of the "Internet" stocks
have yet to show any earnings at all. Even so, Cisco's historical P/E, for the
past nine years, is 26 ( according to ) . Even the most ardent
Cisco bulls don't expect earnings to grow more than 35% in 1999. Should we
expect Cisco to hold its lofty P/E, or should we be thinking about selling.
I've more than doubled my money, so selling wouldn't be unthinkable. On the
other hand, is there anything better to buy?"

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:03 - ID#317193)
Gollum....glenn said the same....I agree...
We watch is new bond market together? Yes.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:03 - ID#35571)
Can't make a key reversal without the key

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:05 - ID#35571)
Frown, that 9:00 post should have been @TYoung

The Hatt
(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:07 - ID#381261)
market manipulation more and more obvious...
Just like clockwork the U.S. jumped on gold right at the open trying to add strength to the stock market. They can play all the games they wish but sooner or later they lose control and all hell will break loose. They keep winding the spring tighter and tighter..... Rubin and Greenspan are living in hell now as they hang on by their finger nails.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:08 - ID#224230)
Down 1.90 but bouncing up again. Now down only 1.30.
Ever the optimist - Pshhhhh toot toot

Time I got out of the freight car and started shovelling coal up there...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:09 - ID#317193)
Gollum...bad hands day too....
To crash you need $ not know if we'll get there...hoping...wishing...watching...praying...

Now off to work.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:11 - ID#348286)
Nice, they always like to have the upper hand to start Fridays off.
Reversal from the norm TODAY ?

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:11 - ID#344389)
Overseas Gold & US Futures Gold
Cash Gold was trading at 295.30 in
overnight tradings ( UP $1.30 ) . It is
almost always up overseas. As soon as the
futures open in the US ,it usually
tanks. Strange ?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:12 - ID#35571)
Be ever optimistic, but it's a deep deep gorge at dead man's curve. Only the falcon survives ( barely ) to pull the Phoenix from the ashes.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:13 - ID#35571)
We'll get it.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:15 - ID#35571)
The Phoenix rises for Christmas
The Great Legend....

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:15 - ID#317193)
ANOTHER dollar or two and...
we will hit some big stops..........


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:16 - ID#45173)
Hiya. Looked at your second spike chart...

Do you have an idea why volatility drops off with each spike?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:17 - ID#431200)
Barrick bid could rub off on juniors
Friday, December 11, 1998 Barrick bid could rub off on juniors
New Frontier: Takeover seen to boost market caps of miners in Argentina By JOHN SCHREINER The Financial Post  Barrick Gold Corp.'s takeover bid for Argentina Gold Corp. could revive investor interest in other junior mining companies exploring in Argentina, all of which are suffering from depressed share values. "This takeover offer is a tremendous boost for the junior exploration market," Canaccord Capital Corp. analyst Andrew Muir wrote in his commentary to clients yesterday. "It confirms the blue-sky potential of mineral discoveries to provide a home run for speculative investors. This takeover will boost the market caps of exploration companies in Argentina." All of the juniors working there could use a lift to market value. "It may pull the market back again," says Victor Bradley, president of Spokane, Wash.-based Yamana Resources Inc., whose shares ( YRI/TSE ) was down 7c yesterday at 88c. "It will draw great attention to Argentina as a whole," says Linda Thorstad, a vice-president at Vancouver's Viceroy Resource Corp., whose shares ( VOY/TSE ) closed yesterday at $2.32, up 7c. Its comparatively robust valuation reflects the production from its two operating gold mines. Chile, Peru, and Argentina have become "the frontier" to which Canadian juniors are retreating after disappointing investors with forays into Indonesia and Africa, says John Kaiser, San Francisco-based author of the Kaiser Bottom-Fishing Report newsletter. Barrick's bid for Argentina Gold is important, but the effect on other juniors will be significant only if the deal closes. "What the system is starved for is liquidity," he says about the market for juniors. "We need cash and this is one way of injecting it into the system." Eric Zaunscherb, ScotiaMcLeod Inc. mining analyst, says the impact may have begun. "Profits made on Argentina Gold [stock] immediately go to find a new home. One of the beneficiaries has been Winspear [Resources Ltd.]," he said about a hot junior exploring for diamonds in the Northwest Territories. Its shares ( wsp/vse ) closed at $3.14, down 8c.
Winspear and Argentina Gold ( ARP/VSE ) are among a handful of stocks that have been trading strongly on the Vancouver Stock Exchange this fall. Argentina Gold has been powered by promising results from its Veladero gold mine exploration in northwestern Argentina. The stock closed yesterday at $5.35, up 35c and near its 52-week high of $3.66. Among the juniors attracted to the country by Argentina Gold's results is Vancouver's Curion Ventures Corp. It found itself sitting on $1-million and 500,000 shares of Glamis Gold Inc. after a property sale in Honduras.
John Young, Curion's investor relations officer, says when the company could not buy good claims near Argentina Gold's discovery, it bought 2,000 acres near a gold property in northwestern Argentina where Viceroy has promising early stage results. Curion shares ( CUV/VSE ) closed yesterday at 28c, up 1c. Analysts say there is not much chance of an "area play" developing near the Veladero project because most of the claims are held by Argentina Gold and Barrick. But two Vancouver juniors now in the area are Orko Gold Corp. and TNR Resources Ltd. Orko, looking for an Argentina project after Argentina Gold's exploration sparked interest, negotiated an option to earn an interest in three TNR-controlled properties.
Orko ( OK/VSE ) closed yesterday at $1.15, down 10c. TNR ( TRR/VSE ) closed at 38c, off 3c. Yamana is among a few juniors that have raised significant financing on the strength of Argentina properties. It has put the rest of its exploration portfolio on the back burner. In two separate transactions since July, the company raised about $10-million ( US ) . Yamana, which has been in the country for seven years, has two silver and three gold discoveries in the south.It is focusing on its silver properties and is looking for partners for the gold properties. Viceroy is exploring in the Yukon and Argentina, where a $1-million ( US ) drilling program is just being completed. It also has eight properties in Mexico and is looking for partners to take those on. Other Canadian-listed juniors active in Argentina are:  Minera Andes Inc. of Spokane, which is in the same part of Argentina as Yamana, has a silver-gold discovery and a portfolio of 25 properties covering 530,000 acres. "Although Minera Andes believes many of its properties have promising potential, [they] are in the early stages of exploration," the company says. The shares ( MAI/ASE ) , which gained 3c yesterday to close at 70c, are still near the lower end of their 52-week range of $2.57-40c.  Mansfield Minerals Inc. of Vancouver, another veteran of Argentina, in November sold $1-million of its shares to Teck Corp. in a private placement, giving Teck the right to earn a major interest in two of its properties. The shares ( MDR/VSE ) have a 52-week range of $2.39-40c. They rose 5c yesterday to close at 78c.
 Southern Rio Resources Ltd. has Aur Resources Inc. working on its gold prospect in southern Argentina. The shares ( SNZ/VSE ) have a 52-week range of 32c-6c and closed yesterday down 2c to 18c. Southern Rio shares management with Winspear.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:17 - ID#35571)
We should ask Sheller about the astrology of all this.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:18 - ID#20359) is a TOTALLY novel concept in automobile security...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:18 - ID#253418)
Gollum, The Hatt and THC
Gollumn - you sound a little bearish these days....

Mr. Hatt - could it be that the Wholesale Price Index showing deflation happened to coincidentally come out the same time as gold opened.

THC - lower inventories haven't done anything to the price of silver. In fact I'd say there is a negative correlation. The lower they go the lower goes silver. A pouint I have heard is the situation won't have an effect of prices until over hand ( currently 76 million ozs ) is reduced to a bout a three month working supply level which is closer to 60 million oz. and that may not even trigger anxiety among the bears unless the dollar is weakening, industrial usage is increasing and generally inflation or the prospect of rising prices is a threat. Who wants to buy early what is going down in price.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:20 - ID#339274)
sharp V bottom
look for a retracement to 66.5 XAU,support for NEm is 18 1/4-1/2
Volatility plus for today.another great day : )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:20 - ID#35571)
It's like pulling back on the stick too fast. You jump up, lose too much energy ( volatility ) and stall out.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:22 - ID#224230)
News clipping service...
New York-Dec. 11-FWN--

MOST OF THE PRECIOUS METALS ARE weaker than expected in early trade.

February gold, which was expected to be slightly
firmer, has softened, with one trader citing trade and
commission house selling in both this metal and silver. A
couple of contacts also suggested today's soft U.S. November
Producer Price Index--down 0.2%--may have had someinfluence.

J. Aron, Sabin and Goldman Sachs were said to be
sellers in gold, while Milleneum and Chase Manhattan were reported to be buyers.

One floor source reported that trade buying emerged around the lows.
Platinum was expected to be higher, but has spent early
trade softer to little changed. This metal was dragged down by
gold amid generally soft commodity prices, said a floortrader.

Meanwhile, said this contact, there has been some
profit taking in palladium, which had firmed sharply in the
last couple of sessions.

The next support in February gold is seen at $290.20,
with resistance anticipated at $296.30 and $296.90.

Support in March silver is anticipated at $4.7750 and
$4.75, with resistance likely at $4.82 and $4.85.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:22 - ID#348286)
@Charleston GB
The shorts operate out of COMEX. Unfortunately thats where the world cash price of AU is set.
The reason the price can be manipulated so easily is the low margin requirements for AU contract, and the fact that actual GOLD is really NEVER exchanged either way. It's all fictitous GOLD that doesn't exist.
If 8000 AU contract holders would take delivery, they would wipe out all the comex AU stocks.
What would the other 300,000 + AU contracts and contract options be worth ?
The whole thing is shill, but no-one realizes it, yet........

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:23 - ID#376309)
To ChasAbar ( 01:45 ) I agree that copper may head lower next year but nothing goes straight up or straight down. According to Market Vane Weekly Bullish Concensus copper has been at or below 5% bulls for three weeks in a row now. A level for copper typically associated with some type of short term rally. This weeks level is only 4% bullish. Every is already short copper but then again it is down again today.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:23 - ID#35571)
Certainly not bearish. This is the turning point. Panic sell off for no good reason followed by the rebirth of the Phoenix ( the return of gold above $350 ) .

Nope, not bearish at all.

In every great legend one suffers the tribulation before the resurrection.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:24 - ID#344389)
Feb Gold down $3.40 Bloomberg 09:27
Feb Gold

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:26 - ID#35571)
Let us presume...
that you are a big money guy on the "inside". You know that the metals are due to turn. You also know this is is your last chance to post losses for tax write offs.

First the sell out, then the buy in.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:26 - ID#224230)
Shovelling away at the info stream here
Linnco Futures Group Inc. 1 Aig Clearing Corporation 3
Prudential Securities, Inc. 3 Goldman Sachs & Co. 12
Refco, Inc. 7 Prudential Securities, Inc. 9
Merrill Lynch Futuers, Inc. 20 Carr Futures Inc. 1
Saul Stone And Company 6 Age Commodity Clearing Corp. 1
Republic N.Y. Securities 15 Refco, Inc. 1
Salomon Smith Barney, Inc. 19 Merrill Lynch Futures, Inc. 27
TOTAL 71 Saul Stone And Company 1
-- Salomon Smith Barney, Inc. 16
-- TOTAL 71

Refco, Inc. 10 Aig Clearing Corporation 143
The Bank of Nova Scotia 160 Prudential Securities Inc. 20
Repbulic N.Y. Securities 165 Deutsche Bank Futures Inc. 39
TOTAL 335 Cargill Investor Services 82
-- Carr Futures Inc. 3
-- Lind-Waldock & Company 6
-- The Bank of Nova Scotia 27
-- Painwebber Incorporated 1
-- Salomon Smith Barney, Inc. 14
-- TOTAL 335
-- -- -- -- TOTAL DELIVERY NOTICES -- -- --

ISSUED TODAY 776 71 335
SO FAR FOR DECEMBER 7,517 4,814 5,015

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:29 - ID#253418)
Chalk up one error...
My thought that today would be directionalist in a small range, expressed a couple of hours ago was dead wrong. So far we've got direction in a down draft.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:31 - ID#367411)
To Jim re Silver
I thought that was coming.....I believe that Ray is also very good at waiting until the time is I right?

OK, you win.....until silver moves!

Let's watch it together.......have a beer!


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:34 - ID#224230)
Down 3.70 according to my dutch site. 290.something. Yeachhh

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:38 - ID#256365)
Gollum POG
Ok, so this is a good thing? Is it going to last longer than just today? Do I have time to run to the bank and put some money in checking and make a phone call?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:40 - ID#301318)
Escape Artists

tolerant1 ( Mooney, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I found the article comical and sad at the ) ID#20359:
Copyright  1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserve

"...where did these clowns get $47,000?..."

The same place you would get it when you have to leave your country.
Chinese people are thrifty and save every penny they can. Were did your parents come from? Why did they come her? Hmm, maybe you are a subversive, 3rd generation.

?Clowns? The clowns are all around you in every other post I read.

"...the Chinese government is no friend to America and as has been proven over and over again the Chinese government is a crushing... murdering hammer of totalitarian dictators..."

You answered you own question. These people want to escape at any cost. Do dead students in Tianaman square mean anything to you?
How much longer must you wear your blinds?

A quote from Bart: Don't post any derogatory remarks regarding any groups race, religion, or ethnic background.

You never know who may be listening!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:43 - ID#350194)
@Gollum @9:00
Gollum - Why do you keep posting that same Silver chart each day and yet it is not updated.? What is so significant about that one chart? Thanks.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:43 - ID#35571)
Plenty of time. Get your dry powder together, wait for the other side of the spike and the second wall. Either get into silver or just watch for the surge of the falcon. Then jump in!!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:47 - ID#35571)
The stochastics. Compare to the gold chart.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:49 - ID#339274)
Long 18 1/4

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:51 - ID#253418)
Gollum why do you post that same mid am silver chart???
And the XAU is at 66 . . . do we buy this knife at 65 Cyclist./

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:54 - ID#348286)
Hope you get a buck on it today...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:54 - ID#14431)
Stocks go down...Gold gets driven down--typical
I wondered whether this would happen. It is almost predictable. The "powers that be" simply cannot have gold do well when stocks are going down or are even threatened to go down. Solution: drive gold down again ( and again, and again...etc. )

When, if ever, will the PPT lose control?


(Fri Dec 11 1998 09:55 - ID#350194)
Flash - Here's a Flash for You! FLASH ( KNN ) - Extra EXTRA - Read ALL about it! Researcher discovers that there is NO connection between racism and condemning a people's corrupt government!

BTW - Flash - My comments about the latest 'wave' of Immigration to American shores was somewhat 'tongue in cheek', as I know that MOST of those new settlers are merely trying to change abodes. However, I also have no doubt that many of those who have now avoided proper American immigration procedure have criminal backgrounds, and it is also not beyond reason to believe that some will be active Chinese government 'plants.'

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:01 - ID#350194)
Yes. I took note and commented the other day. I agreed with you that the Stochastics for Silver show a promising chart pattern but that sometimes this 'drifting along the bottom' can continue for quite some time. That is why it would be very interesting to see any day by day change in those bottom lines.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:08 - ID#212197)
About the Right to Defend Privacy
The Paula Jones case , provided the accusations against Clinton are true which have come up in this case, is a criminal case. It would prove the missuse of the power tied to a publicly held office to sexually harass a woman, using state troopers. This would be criminal behaviour.

The fact that Paula Jones lawyers have used a case of consensual sex between adults, to prove anything in the Paula Jones case, was IMHO a completely wrong move. Because, let's assume, Monica and Bill would have admitted their consensual sexual relationship, this would have established prove that Clinton only acts in consensus with his sex partners. The case would have provided evidence in the defense of Clinton. ( Even if Clinton would have refused to answer questions which represent an intrusion into his private sex life, he would have avoided all the following trouble. )

Now the question is: has a public prosecutor the right to intrude into the sexual behaviour of two adults who act in consensus?

If we say YES to this question, we come very close to the witch hunt of midevil times.

The second question is: do two adults have the right to deny a sexual relationship when asked by a public prosecutor?

Here the question is: does a public prosecutor have the right to ask such intuding questions?

I say no, and if he does, the value to defend privacy is more important than to lie or not to lie. I think a public prosecutor has no right to ask such a question and when he/she does, the asked person has the basic human right to lie in the defense of pricacy.

Clinton and Monica Lewinsky, which I both find disgusting, even though I think I have no right to know their "private" part of the reasons for my disgust, had the right to lie. The fact that their answers were identical shows that they were in consensus. After that no prosecutor had the right anymore to ask any further questions.

From this I conclude that Starr's investigation was illegal, in my own view of legality. I don't want to impose this view on anybody. But I want to make the statement.

Besides that, ( remember Clinton consequently lied about this affair until the DNA prove ) I think he was trapped and Monica, volutarily and in consensus, acted as an agent and betrayed Clinton in a dirty way.

In addition I think that there is a powerful political faction which doesn't reveal it's motives to the public, which is behind the campaign against Clinton. This faction is as rotten as Clinton himself, it's rats against rats, and the public morality is the big loser in this dirty game.

I can only make rather vague conclusions who belongs to the anti-Clinton faction. These conclusions are based on the media which made the most vicious attacks on Clinton: for sure the Yew York Times and the Washington Post and their owners belong into this team. Associated with these public organs are usually Herny Kissinger and with him the Rockefeller clan with their ties to big money in the U.K.

How lomg will the American public tolerate this totalitarian despisement of the ruling hirarchies towards the "pleb" pretending that a dirty sex story is good enough to inform the idiots about what's going on in politics?

Don't you Americans not feel humiliated to the point of no more being able to stand it?

Where is the "roaring of the peasants with their pitchforks over the hills, ready to storm the castle?" ( quoted freely after Pat Buchanan ) .

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:09 - ID#45173)
I sense real downward momentum in the DOW
Dow 8769.75 -71.83 ( -0.81% )

Is the second wall approaching?


(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:11 - ID#350194)
Gollum's Stochastics
AAR, Gollum, the gold chart stochastics certainly pointed the way lower a few days back when the lines crossed near the top. Make sure you give a timely alert when the silver lines cross near the bottom. As General says:
"That is all"

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:12 - ID#253418)
Gollum - about time to start pulling back on the stick!!
XAU 65 not to far away....NEM at just above 18....

DOW pretty close to its lows of the day .... now am I supposied to belief that the United States government would orcehestrate the selling of gold on a day when the dow looked to be going down so that money wouldn't be detoured into that shinning medium of exchange and value or could it be just a wholesale run for the exits and not many real gold longs out there anyway.???

A little skeptical of all this conspiracy therory, guys...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:15 - ID#20359)
Flash, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...let me make this perfectly clear to you as you
twisted what I said...The Chinese government SUKS...and I do not care if they are listening...key word GOVERNMENT...that is an institution not a race, religion, and as you redundantly put it...or ethnic background...

$47,000.00 is a large sum of money and there would be absolutely no reason to enter Canada and the US illegally...NONE...

My Father's family immigrated to these United States legally...he met my Mother in the second world war...they came back to the US...didn't use a rubber and here I be...

Me a subversive...only to your misguided...ignorant...politically mis-informed and incorrect thinking...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:15 - ID#35571)
@Mooney*, jims
Sorry about that. Here's a slightly more up to date chart:

I agree they can bump along on the bottom for days, but you have to agree the position is MUCH better than for the gold chart.

It's a little late now, but as of yesterday it would have been a great play to short gold and go long silver.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:16 - ID#286230)
I believe the broker was talking about Hi Tech communications ie Bell Canada, Northern Telecom, Newbridge Network and similar manufacturers and service providers as opposed to search engines and internet mail order houses.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:19 - ID#35757)
The appropriate, courageous, and honorable thing to do would be to refuse to answer. In doing so he would have advanced the privacy of everything. Instead our hero chose to lie, stonewall and obstruct. This is his MO. If it hadn't been for the cum stained dress he would have gotten away with it like he did on all the other things he was being investigated for ( IMHO ) . Don't forget it was was Mr. Women's Rights that brought us all these sexual harassment laws. It was Mr. Constitutional Law who presided over a 'Justice' department that daily employed all the cute little tricks that Mr. Starr employed.

Hangmen also die.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:22 - ID#35571)
Stick back, leveling out. What a rush!!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:28 - ID#45173)
A place to vent
I've created a forum on Delphi to give us Kitco-ites a place to go duke it out when we get pissed off. You can find it at:

A moderately annoying but brief registration is required.

The forum is called, "Dickhead!" and the charter is the exact opposite of Kicto's:

"While most discussion unmoderated forums deteriorate into vicious insults and name-calling, this one starts off that way, you pea-brained knee biter."

Figure it's worth a shot.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:30 - ID#253418)
Gollum - I think you've turned the wrong market around...I
Dow only down 10 points.... XAU just above skidding along the tree tops at 66. NEM a 1/8 to the good for the Cyclist - time to sell!!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:31 - ID#45173)
Oh, I forgot. It's a private forum so you need a code to get in
The code is "eatme"

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:32 - ID#33184)
Is it a fix ?
The uncanny, simultaneously, strong moves across a few markets, minutes ago, makes one wonder if there isn't a large element of orchestration behind them.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:32 - ID#409404)
Sometimes I think being a goldbug is a curse. This is one of those times. Trying to invest in PM producers for the long haul is driving me crazy. I've passed up large ( by my standards ) profits in Hecla twice in the last two years because I was looking for the long term rally us goldbugs have been awaiting for what seems like forever. ( I think the second coming of Christ might occur before we see a real gold rally! )

So, Cyclist, you are my hero. At least you are making a buck 1/16th at a time on your NEM trades. All I do is watch my Hecla drift ever lower after two years of waiting.

Okay, I'm done whining.

Back to the still,


(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:33 - ID#344326)
Gold lease rates...
I'll be curious to see if gold lease rates go up more. If the ECB does want the POG to rise in 99, they must fight the almost daily downward pressure at COMEX on the POG, especially at the open. Let the gold wars begin? Let's hope so.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:34 - ID#339274)
Bigwaves looking good,we are making a classic reverse head an shoulder
formation on the hourly chart.I'm looking for another buck : )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:39 - ID#253418)
Preparing parachute.....
in case I have to jump....

Wierd stock market today...NASDAQ up 13 points, Dow down 13 points and the S&P down 8 points or what would be equal to 70 points on the DOW....I know, the PPT has come in and bought the the XMI and turned the DOW around....actually, I was watching the market just about this closely back in '87 when they ( or somebody ) did just that....amazing.

A little less dramatic today but if we leave our precious metal ship in Gollumn's good hands may be we'll get back up above the openings of
18 11/16 on NEM for example, and 37 1/4 on SWC - now that'd be great, but frankly when I check in with you next - at the close - I suppose Cyclist will be in and out a couple of times and it'll be shaping up to be another one of those weekends coming up, when the bear will be prowling on KITCO, having had the taste of yet ANOTHER false and failed rally.

Glimmer of hope - I've been wrong so far today.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:51 - ID#339274)
are getting stronger.NEM jumped to 18 1/2

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:53 - ID#339274)
18 9/16

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:55 - ID#408236)
@crazytimes: Lease Rates as posted by Dabchick showed slight
easing of rates, including the one month lease rate, which usually
indicates the pending action of shorts. This hit on gold is
right out of the blue. COMEX strikes again, and the tail continues
to wag the horse.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 10:55 - ID#254321)
Dollar down, Gold dropping today
All: Any thoughts? Any gold 'fire sales' a la October 97? Brazil, Mexico, China, Japan, behaving? The drop in the US dollar hints that gold will not go down -- for long. It can't, just as it couldn't in 1993.

AG must eventually let gold go up, or risk financial oblivion. The only question is whether he can push it up fast enough to counter the rather substantial deflationary forces.

I am about to add some more to my gold equity holdings, and I don't want to get burned like I did back on Oct 97. If this is another 'knife edge' downturn, any idea when the bottom will hit?

It is interesting how well the Swiss Franc is doing. Usually the German Mark behaves comparably. Bet this time it has not, and will not perform anywhere as well. Now the German Mark has been diluted by the 'basket' of currencies called the Euro.

Anyone do any statistical analysis to determine how much of the gold price comes from the US dollar, and how much from commodity prices? So far -- in the last week or so, gold has not followed commodity prices down. As far as I can tell, the drop in the US dollar has essentially countered the ( gold ) bearish effect of commodity prices -- so far anyway.

Eventually AG will step in to support the dollar and markets short term -- the temptation will be to push down gold temporarily.

Excellent buying opportunity for gold/gold equities coming up -- either very soon if there is no gold 'fire sale', of a few months from now if there is a major financial crisis somewhere in the world.

Currently I am 15% gold equities, 10% defense stocks, rest cash. Funny money invested in Mexico, SP500 puts.

Waiting for the gold knife edge down. Wondering if I should sell my defense stocks.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:00 - ID#286230)
Christmas Presents
I just finished looking at digital cameras. No hope for silver with these things beginning to get to afordable prices.

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:01 - ID#33184)
One reason for gold to come down is CRB. Its new low for the year is 188.69.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:06 - ID#35571)
@Cage Rattler
Not a fix exactly, it's just thst they took the curbs off.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:09 - ID#389387)
chug-a chug-a whoo whoo
Good job Gollum. Pulling this beast on the mainline takes awhile to accomplish.
I am in the Club Car this morning. My back pressed against the worn red leather seats, enjoying some heady French roast in a fine china cup, the slow curls of steam rising slowly. As I stare out the window I see the eastbound train heading in the other direction away from san franCISCO. Between the flashes of sunlight and shadow flickering like AMZNly large fireflies across my eyes, I can barely discern the strange names on the boxcars XOOMing past. Names like E-BAY and CIEN breezed by. That deadheading derelict had all of its car doors opened and I could plainly see nothing of substance was really inside.
I reach into my double-breasted to pull out a tip for the waiter. The silver Eagle gleaming beneath a satin finish. No plastic sleeve or museum shrine for this beauty, it has all the markings of a true World-Class traveler. Its initial luster now long a memory, this coin has seen real history. It has traveled in the pockets of gamblers to liven the ante, used to pay for food for families, paid the rent for hard-working steel laborers, made a few trips through the collection plate and even landed on the bed at the flop house.
All this discussion of maintaining the pristine quality for mere bullion made me think how beautiful the well worn truly is. Ah the smell of precious in circulation. What a wonderful day.
All aboard!

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:11 - ID#33184)
Was aware of the lift of curbs - focus was more on the 'uncanny' part!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:14 - ID#20359)
Selby, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...that horse has been beaten far past its death...
digital technology will not reflect in the silver price for years to that time silver will become scarce and will rise in price substantially...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:14 - ID#333127)
Amazed at how well it is doing, thought it would quickly hit 60

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:14 - ID#187109)
entertainment stox and gold
EJ - regarding your


Date: Fri Dec 11 1998 00:23

EJ ( @Selby, gagrad, t1 ) ID#45173: Want recreation? Buy an Astro stock like XSYSC, down 47% since 11-4-98.


Perhaps your first pick shoulda-coulda-woulda been 'OPEN' ( ANOTHER 'astro' stock ) ......... up over 400% since Sheller reco'd it.

oh well.......... shoulda-coulda-woulda ;- ) Hang in there dude. xsysc is just gamble money anyway right?? Trying to make a quick buck, eh? It goes ta show ya........ 'dis ain't easy, eh? w/w


how bout those Stoch's Moondog? fer gold I mean...............kerplunk! Sell the rallies..... ( ? ) Gold, for several days now has TRIED to run-up but failed. It's ALL in the charts..........ALL OF IT.

go golf!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:15 - ID#317193)
Gollum...moving from "position" to "investment" ...
Can you get me to $285 spot? Please......


(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:16 - ID#339274)
step aside
sold nem 18 3/8

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:18 - ID#187109)
yet ANOTHER.....
"Dark-Friday" for gold.......remember when ( last year ) gold got slammed on Friday's rather consistently.............damn Fridays are baaaaaaaaad days for the bugs.......... ( uh huh ) .... wait for Mondays?


cyclist - you are one helluva scalper........ ( hats off ) ..... : )

Theme Investor
(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:19 - ID#372400) photography

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:21 - ID#34459)
The XAU in 1999
Cyclist:::::Am back in the loop, modem problems.ISP problems,Hardware problems,Ya da Ya da, Any way this baby will fly now, I"m on top of the XAU, never lost the big picture, What is your feel for the near to mid term.CoBra

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:21 - ID#28994)
Where can I find what the Canadian Government classes as Canadian Culture. I keep reading about them trying to protect it's culture and would like to know what it is.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:23 - ID#286230)
That was my view until I saw the things first hand and the drop in price. I have no idea at what rate people will discard current cameras and buy the digitals but the rumour of the horse's death may be premature.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:26 - ID#339274)
nem 18 7/16,stop 18 9/16

Cage Rattler
(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:29 - ID#33184)
Swiss Franc
The Swiss National Bank is facing a dilemma as safe haven flows from Europe bring the Mark/Swiss cross to two month lows. 50% of Switzerland's GDP is export related ( mostly Europe ) and that forces the Swiss National Bank to focus on the Swiss Franc as its primary indicator for monetary policy. The SNB is afraid that an overly strong Swiss Franc will crimp exports, at a time what the economy is growing at a very sluggish pace, and exports are already under pressure from the Asian crisis. Back in February when the Mark/Swiss was at this level the SNB intervened in the market for a straight month by flooding the money markets with liquidity by lowering its overnight rates below its 1% discount rate. The SNB has indicated that it is willing to do so, but it will probably be sidelined for a while as it awaits the Euro.

Source: ICT

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:30 - ID#350194)
Chart @ 10:15 is OK but waiting to see the version with crossing lines at bottom!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:38 - ID#339274)
COBRA,xau scraping bottom ,might dip to 65.5 ,Nem 18.
cycles give it a strong close for today,last two hours

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:38 - ID#45173)
My point exactly. The probability of any stock going up or down is correlated equally to astros and chance. I was not lucky with XSYSC. However, you can't make money over the long term investing on luck. Actually, it's worse than that. It was a stupid purchase on my part. There was every indication that the stock had not been fully discounted for the dire condition of the company. Almost all of the stock was held by insiders who were waiting for a chance to dump it. The only question is do I dump it now too. You know the old rule, the first loss is the best loss.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:48 - ID#35571)
Ok. I'll have it for you next Tuesday.

Spud Master
(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:50 - ID#273112)
@Clinton now supports "investing" SS in the Stock Market...
... this is the guy with the problem defining words, right?!

For "invest", Clinton means confiscating the baby-boomer's/yupper's IRAs, Roth IRAs, 401 Keogs, all pension funds etc. and rolling them into a renamed Social Security. For which YOU will be means-tested and found inelgible. chuckle.

All the current SS "contributions" ( HA HA HA HA HA!!! ) are already spent, gone, zilch: nothing but a bunch of "special" US Treasury Bonds that are not worth the electronic memory they're stored in. You think the FedGov is going to DECREASE their unlimited lust for spending money by DECREASING the current SS take and putting it in the Stock Market?
HA!!! HA!! HA!! HA!!!!

There's only one, fat, rich, easily available source: your fat sow IRAs, Keogs and pensions!


PS - All Hail EB! His flawless recommendation of DIS now at ... uh .. oh my ... 31 5/16 ... sigh ... you did say wait 'till Christmas, Eric?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 11:59 - ID#339274)
Covered and went long 18 5/16

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:03 - ID#256365)
Mooney* Silver chart from MidAm
I don't know if this link will still work, but if it dosn't I got the chart from midam using their custom charts function. The stochastic %k and %d lines are differnt than their general Silver chart. I hope the link works. But the lines already crossed in early December. I don't know much about these charts so if this isn't what you are looking for I'm sorry.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:23 - ID#301318)
I apoligize. Actually I agree with your post for the most part. But I just have to take exception to your conclusion that they are all subversives.
Yes, most Chinese from Fujian are criminals in the strict sense of the word.. BUT, you don't understand the local situation in that area. It is a Mafia atmosphere there. If you are not "in" you will be living on the street or dead. Plain and simple. If you are smart you play the Chinese mafia game, collect your chips, and get the hell out of there.
Untill you guys have lived through a life threatening situation, or get kicked off of your comfy internet couch, you will never see the big picture. Let alone understand it. Sure there are submisives. I am not naive. But submisives don't need American Indians to get them across a river pal! I am not for illegal immigration by no means. But, the INS and the Dept of State are complete idiots, clowns.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:35 - ID#339274)
sold and short
18 5/16,stocks are going down

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:38 - ID#20359)
Sewlby, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...below are some links which address some of the issues
concerning silver in photography...I have also included a couple of links that I think you will find extremely informative as you have now jumped into the digital realm...there are so many factors in the use of silver in the use of photography that even these links only skim the surface...

I think you will find the first link to be very useful in your new found enjoyment...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:50 - ID#20359)
Flash, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...a conversation far better suited to the pub
and a few beers eh...and if I might add...not to provoke but rather to invoke...I love the Chinese culture and people...I would like to send the government forced upon them at the end of a barrel on a the trash heap of history as one more piece of garbage which represents crimes against human rights and freedom...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:55 - ID#286230)
I haven't bought any digital equipment yet. Just impressed by the technology and the declining price. Thanks for the links.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 12:58 - ID#339274)
buy signal
covered and long for the 2nd time,18 5/16

(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:00 - ID#339274)
buy signal
covered and long for the 2nd time,18 5/16

(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:04 - ID#411259)
..... OK ..... OK ..... OK .....

The Drop in gold is being primarily attributed to lack of worries over inflation. PPI dropped .2% in November. Retail sales up .6%. Not much to pin a long gold buy on, no? J. Aron was reported to be an aggressive seller today.

Stop loss selling in gold triggered a sell off in silver, which still looks like it has a solid bottom in place around $4.60. Silver will go where gold will for now, and gold has some work to do on the down side before it looks pretty enough to buy. A drop to $280 gold would still stay within a confirmed break out of the downtrend, but would add a consolidated base that would add much comfort to those looking to enter gold on the long side.

Palladium fell on profit taking, but with no fresh selling by the Russian's, there is little interest in trying to step on palladium with new shorts. Although palladium is still way top heavy, the charts are actually pointing to higher prices still. I will not trade palladium, spreads too high; likewise volatility. The dismal outlook for palladium production this year and next, will force user's to move to platinum.

Which, by the way, looks like it wants to do the same as gold. Drop a bit first before buyers feel comfortable. I am a buyer anywhere under $345. Although John Disney - whose reports of South African mining has been of enormous benefit to this forum - has some worries about lower demand, this is not borne out by the numbers.

Gold importation in Japan is off 48%. Silver imports have dropped 45%. Palladium is down 34% ( thanks to a dearth of Russian shipments ) . Platinum imports are only off 12%. This represents a drop in jewelry sales, more than offset by increased demand in China. JD is right to ask his questions but, out of a 5.3 million-ounce annual usage, JM say's demand is down only 40,000 ounces in 1998 from 1997. This is 3/4 of 1% drop in demand. Demand for platinum has risen at 4% - 7% per year in recent years.

The spec short position on platinum is still enormous, although is has tipped to the commercials more towards the short side, but this would reverse with another drop below $340. A round of short covering should bring us back to $380 or so, with momentum buying picking up from there. A big move in palladium cannot help but do platinum good.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:08 - ID#348169)
@Flash, Gollum and Aldebaran
Flash - You are right to question blanket statements, but as I said in my original post 'Food for Thought' and I never meant that they were ALL subversives and criminals, but out of 3,600 I would say that the New York underworld has just increased substantially. How many have been found and rounded up BTW. That never seems to make the news! ( Not cost efficient and yet it only took one truck bomb to nearly topple the World Trade Center. )
Aldebaran - Thanks for that chart!
Gollum - Lines have croseed on Aldebarans already - do we really need to wait til next Thursday? Has yours crossed yet? Are they the same indicators? Whichever way you look at it Silver is getting very interesting here.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:08 - ID#411259)
..... OK ..... OK ..... OK .....

The Drop in gold is being primarily attributed to lack of worries over inflation. PPI dropped .2% in November. Retail sales up .6%. Not much to pin a long gold buy on, no? J. Aron was reported to be an aggressive seller today.

Stop loss selling in gold triggered a sell off in silver, which still looks like it has a solid bottom in place around $4.60. Silver will go where gold will for now, and gold has some work to do on the down side before it looks pretty enough to buy. A drop to $280 gold would still stay within a confirmed break out of the downtrend, but would add a consolidated base that would add much comfort to those looking to enter gold on the long side.

Palladium fell on profit taking, but with no fresh selling by the Russian's, there is little interest in trying to step on palladium with new shorts. Although palladium is still way top heavy, the charts are actually pointing to higher prices still. I will not trade palladium, spreads too high; likewise volatility. The dismal outlook for palladium production this year and next, will force user's to move to platinum.

Which, by the way, looks like it wants to do the same as gold. Drop a bit first before buyers feel comfortable. I am a buyer anywhere under $345. Although John Disney - whose reports of South African mining has been of enormous benefit to this forum - has some worries about lower demand, this is not borne out by the numbers.

Gold importation in Japan is off 48%. Silver imports have dropped 45%. Palladium is down 34% ( thanks to a dearth of Russian shipments ) . Platinum imports are only off 12%. This represents a drop in jewelry sales, more than offset by increased demand in China. JD is right to ask his questions but, out of a 5.3 million-ounce annual usage, JM say's demand is down only 40,000 ounces in 1998 from 1997. This is 3/4 of 1% drop in demand. Demand for platinum has risen at 4% - 7% per year in recent years.

The spec short position on platinum is still enormous, although is has tipped to the commercials more towards the short side, but this would reverse with another drop below $340. A round of short covering should bring us back to $380 or so, with momentum buying picking up from there. A big move in palladium cannot help but do platinum good.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:11 - ID#339274)
getting wiped

(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:16 - ID#30345)
@any BS
Just as you say gollum. This morning was tax loss sale day. May see more next week. But the tide will turn. Symmetric tax gain selling in the equity market in EARLY January. Then tide change to commodities in increased long action then accompanied by euro spawned dollar slide. I look for the oil equities fist, then metals, buy silver then gold shares. Physical will be Pt then gold in 99. Let's kick a$$.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:25 - ID#301318)
Tolerant1 a gulp to ya!
Stuck between a communist and a hit man.
Are these the subversives you are thinking about?
Why is it that day after day I have to listen to the Clinton crap or the West Bank BS on the news. But when people are fighting and dieing for democracy the American media is deaf, blind and dunb!

Hong Kong Voice of Democracy
Five More CDP Members Arrested on December 8

Five more China Democratic Party members, namely, Zhang Bao-qin
( Fujian ) , Liu Xian-bin ( Sichuan ) ,Ou-yang Yi ( Sichuan ) , Yu Wan-bao
( Sichuan ) , Wen Qiang ( Sichuan ) , were arrested on December 8, 1998, the
Hong Kong-based Information Centre of Human Rights and Democratic
Movement in China reported.

According to the statistics of the Information Centre, there have been
at least 26 China Democratic Party members being interrogated by the
police since Jiang Ze-min's return from his Japan visit and 10 party
members still under arrest as of December 8. Three core members of the
party, namely, Xu Wen-li, Qin Yong-min, and Wang You-cai, will be tried
for subversion charges.

Zhang Bao-qin, a China Democratic Party at Chang-le city of Fujian, was
arrested by 20 policement at his home. The police broke into his house
without revealing their identity and searched it for an hour. Zhang's
correspondence addresses, books, and papers related to the China
Democratic Pary were confiscated by the police. There is no information
about Zhang's whereabouts now. Zhang, aged 41 and worker of Fujian
Mineral Bureau, is a founding member of Fujian Preparatory Committee of
the China Democratic Party.

Both Liu Xian-bin and Ou-yang Yi were also arrested by police at their
homes. Their papers, fax machines, correspondence addresses were
confiscated by police. After the arrest of Qin Yong-min, the Sichuan
branch of China Human Rights Observer becomes the provisional
headquarters of the human rights group. Liu replaces Qin as director of
the provisional headquarters and Ou-yang Yi is a member of the group.
They issued statements condemning the Chinese government's violations of
human rights in the name of China Human Rights Observer after Qin's

A few hours before his arrest, Liu issued a statement calling for:

1 ) All democratic activists of China go to Hangzhou to attend Wong
You-cai's trial on December 17 and those who cannot go hold a 24-hour
hunger-strike at their homes on that day. Do the same thing for Qin and
Xu if they are tried;
2 ) Every activist writes a letter of protest to the govenment;
3 ) Give material and spiritual support to the families of Xu, Qin, and

The Rescue Co-ordination Group of China Democratic Party welcomes
foreign media to go to Hangzhou on December 17 to report on Wang's
trial. The Hangzhou Middle Court says that the trial will be open to the

Hu Jiang-xia, wife of Wang You-cai, released an open statement to UN
Secretay Annam and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Mrs Robinson
through the Information Centre. The statement asks Mr Annam and Mrs
Robinson, who are both in Paris now, to pay attention to the fact that
Wang's attempt to form the China Democratic Party is a rational and
peaceful act but even this is regarded as "subversive activity" by the
Chinese government. This makes people doubt the Chinese government's
sincerity in protecting human rights. In fact, the Chinese government
has not done any promotion of the contents of the two international
human rights covenants among the people after it signed them in October.
Wang actually printed 2,000 copies of the covenants and Human Rights
Declaration with his own money and planned to distribute them to the
public on the 50th anniversary of the Human Rights Declaration. He is
now arrested and the copies confiscated.

Francis T.L. Lau
Mobile: ( 852 ) 9424 1068
Fax: ( 852 ) 2493 3953
Hong Kong Voice Of Democracy

(Fri Dec 11 1998 13:44 - ID#317193)
Central Fund Canada...CEF
To exercise or not exercise the rights offering is the question. Even with todays sell off NAV is US$ 3.80-4 depending on use of spot and nearest future contract. At US$ 4 for a share plus a warrant to buy ANOTHER share @ US$4 in May that makes the warrant ( option ) only .16-.20.

Five months for an option on gold and buy at existing prices...cheaper than any call option I have found.

Anyone have any THOUGHTS?


(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:01 - ID#266105)
gold & oil

Charleston Gold Bug
(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:10 - ID#344389)
Gold Shares
Even with the $4.00 plus decline in
the gold price, there seems to be
persistent buying in the gold shares.
Perhaps those with a longer time

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:12 - ID#391172)
There are two major ways to increase. One by dividing and then increment, the other by simple increment. Nature chose the former, economic man the latter. The media are big business, getting bigger like China gets bigger, or any of the mergers we see everyday. Capitalism degenerates as big gets bigger and then merges with government. Everything has to have a stopper or it resembles cancer including human populations or government.

Mozel is right..put a stopper on corporations..or learn Chinese.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:12 - ID#45173)
DOW down 239 in two days, bonds way down
It's deja vu all over again.

U.S. 30-year T-bond fall sharply on block sales

NEW YORK, Dec 11 ( Reuters ) - The U.S. benchmark 30-year Treasury
bond expanded its losses to more than a full point early Friday afternoon
after two big blocks of bonds were sold, traders said.

``Dealers got hit with two big blocks of bonds,'' a trader said. ``The
market's gone down 15 ticks in the last 10 minutes. There are customers
bigger than dealers coming to sell and a lot of people just don't want to
take the risk. There's not a lot of people willing to provide liquidity.''

Traders said thin trading contributed to the sudden, sharp move, which briefly sent the bond's yield back up to
around 5.04 percent.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:13 - ID#30345)
Ok, Maybe gold will lead other commodities. But I still think PT may lead gold. I just think the equity boys will move to gold equities prior to commoditiy take off, and that jaw boning may delay golds response.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:13 - ID#339274)
sold& short for the 3rd time
gold is being pushed down on light volume,stocks are
going to be next.18 5/16

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:24 - ID#242265)
@ 2BR02B - >> gold & oil
Good article - Makes a lot of sense.
Thanks for posting it!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:33 - ID#339274)
cyclical low
as posted previously we shoulget one this hour,covered and went
long 18 1/4,hmm same price I started this morning .
profits are slim pickens: )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:34 - ID#230216)
Yeah Spuds......
Kinda makes me feel like a gold bug....oh well...

Disney is SOLID and I will continue to add it to my 'portfoilo'. My timing on this is for thirty years anyway. ANd I did say June '99 as well : )

If you look at this history Disney SPLITS every 6 yrs.

I will ( maybe, maybe not ) have FIVE TIMES ( plus more 'contributions ) the amount of a STRONG companies' shares...........I equate that to something sizable.......................I could be dead-ass wrong but..... ( tick-tock, tick-tock ) me in thirty years, or write this to your HARDRIVE and pull it up in 2028...................and then pop off..................oh cyber friend Spudsters.................. ( wink ), if'n you woulda-coulda-shoulda gone with my, NOW, infamous DELL reco

and bought after it's 2nd to last SPLIT youda done well :- ) .....well......? I DID..... ( grins ) ............ ( cheshire type ) ........................ohmy!.....

Good ole frend.............the other day I was asking what people thought of TVX. If it was a decent stock to buy. I didn't get many replies. Could you give me any info on this one. Should I be 'invested' in gold stocks at all? Or should I just 'speculate' with them. I need to know these things......would it be a long term play? would it have definite growth potential? Would I get a good/decent LONG TERM return for every dollar I 'spend' on them? ( assuming, of course, we are still using the yankee toilet paper[not my words] ) ....These are just some of the things I need to know or would at least like to have an idea about......that is all Spuddymeister. My friend at this, this Kitco. Happy Holidays to the Spud household......especially all the little taters ;- ) .

go golF! never claim perfection, only to stand on the shoulders of giants to tug on capes and things and to look far back to see far forward and sling arrows of justice at democrats and liberals alike.......and commie pinkos...... ;-^ )


(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:34 - ID#35571)
The first vu and the deja vu.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:46 - ID#34459)
Trouble Getting Access
Y2K, Bad Modem, Overloaded ISP, I don't know...Can't seem to get in & out of Kitco today...Any one else having access problems? Cyclist, RE the XAU, strong fibbonnacci support at 63.23.. This is .618 of the advance and decline since the low of 8/31 @ 48.89. I feel 99% this will hold any further decline, the other 1% I'll save to play another day.CoBra

(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:47 - ID#34459)
Trouble Getting Access
Y2K, Bad Modem, Overloaded ISP, I don't know...Can't seem to get in & out of Kitco today...Any one else having access problems? Cyclist, RE the XAU, strong fibbonnacci support at 63.23.. This is .618 of the advance and decline since the low of 8/31 @ 48.89. I feel 99% this will hold any further decline, the other 1% I'll save to play another day.CoBra

lefty kiwi
(Fri Dec 11 1998 14:57 - ID#32176)
re Golf
" Proof that USA is in decline ".... see Presidents Cup Golf Results

Go Nobilo and Turner

Also a lot of speculation on Kitco re Kairos web site some months ago ,
go to
Seems some silicon valley billionaire has met aliens ,
very good for gold if you have read Zacharia Sitchen

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:00 - ID#242264)
@ Cobra -->> Access Trouble
same here - been going on for about 2 hours I think.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:01 - ID#413175)
Canadian culture

"Canadian culture" is a minute piece of diaphanous tissue woven by six mandarins in Ottawa. It is translucent and is without texture or pattern. The weavers are easily identified since they have their eyebrows up by their hair lines. If you want to examine it this tenuous cloth, you must find Ted Rogers. Having found himself becoming financially naked a few years ago, he snatched it away from the C.R.T.C. and wrapped it about himself.

It is said to have become be very tattered. Nobody really knows, of course, because only those with refined taste are able to see it. Here in Canada, there are therefore but six candidates able to examine it.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:03 - ID#35571)
Yeah, it is kinda hard getting in and out. Reminds me of the old days of the first wall.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:08 - ID#246224)
Gold is not a commodity, per Alan Greenspan. It is a threat to the International Banking System.
Reconsider, for a moment, the testimony of Alan Greenspan on 24th July 1998, in which he said "Several Central Banks stand ready to halt a rise in the price of gold if that were to occure..".

First, why would any Central Banks *_CARE_* about a commodity? Is it possible that they would do the same things to copper or iron or hog jowls? Consider the substitution, "Several Central Banks stand ready to halt a rise in the price of SPARE RIB QUARTERS if that were to occure..". A patently ludicrous reading.

Second, this plainly *PUBLIC* statement is uncharacteristic of a Central Banker such as Mr. Greenspan. Why did he go out of his way to express the intention of Central Banks to throttle the price of Gold??? Gold is part and parcel of the monetary system. It must be 'controlled'. Why? If gold were simply a 'relic of the past', a commodity, then WHY make such a public, contradictory message in a statement before the Congress?

Gold is an entirely different world of money than fiat paper. It is NOT a commodity. You can talk all you want to about gold options this and that, blah, blah, blah. The fact is that gold was rising over the past few days, had gotten past $297 in overnight trading, and was set to continue past the upper channel of its recent trading range when *_AMERICAN BANKS_*, known to operate on behalf of the US Government and the Federal Reserve, cut the legs out from under it by $6 or so dollars.

There are two reasons one would wish for a commodity to keep from rising. One: You are very short and would incure great losses as you tried to cover ( adding fuel to your own pyre ) . Two: You were long other trades which would be hurt by a rise in the price of that commodity. Or both of these reasons.

Fact is gold is not a commodity, it is a monetary system. So far it has been manipulated. Part of that manipulation is the current ascendency of paper money systems trying to supercede it. But it *_WILL_* break out of its confines as the AMERICAN forces and their ALLIES lose this war of economic aggression. Make no mistakes about this; AMERICA has lead a war of economic aggression against the world at large. It has subjugated entire nations and regions to be its virtual slaves in a kind of economic empire building. It stands at the very apex of its adventures and its patrons will literally fight to the death to maintain its position of influence and power. They will destroy the 'commodity gold market' if necessary to their purposes, to forstall capitulation.

Meanwhile other nations have been quietly building a new system based on gold, and independent from the American concept of 'debt' centered money. This new money system will be a 'savings' centered money system which is anchored in a gold standard. In this system money will be factioned as the economies grow, so that early money will become more valuable. Instead of 100's, 1000's & 10,000's in denominations growing skyward in reckless printing press inflation ( or the multiplication of bonds of indebtedness multiplying like a plague ) this money system will invent smaller and smaller denominations to be used as practical currency and will chain the growth in money supply to the availability of gold for a standard of growth.

Gold is the 'new' money. The financial/monetary allies of the United States will abandone it to the fate which has conquered all other failed empires .. and will smoothly transition to the new system without much trouble or care.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:18 - ID#258142)
Your privacy on Internet
This is not a joke. I have compiled this messages from press and my own research on the Net. It is about so-called Backdoor Trojan Horses - new Internet-specific computer viruses.
Trojan horse type computer viruses know for a long time. In August 1998 their new Backdoor kind started to spread widely over computers with Internet access. First you get it - one way or another - then it plant itself to one of existing software pieces in your PC - like harmless screen saver or something else. It turns your computer into a small Internet server. Each time, you get online, it transmit the owner "I am online". The one, who owns client software has a list of all computers, that are online now on his screen and can access and modify any information on your hard disks.
In most cases a hacker need to know your IP address ( unique address, that is assigned to you by your ISP ) to get in. The most easy way to discover your IP is to crack it when you have IRC or ICQ chat session. There are other ways too, for example, using special software that ask active IP address using wildcharacters, like * in a string that started with characters, common to all users of your ISP.
First of all, all what is written in your hard disk became accessible - your files, e-mails, passwords, Windows registry, etc. It is possible to read them, delete, upload new or modified files, or simply format your hard disk. If you have picrophone and speakers, hacker can even talk to you, or play CD you currently have in PC. It is also possible to send text messages right to your PC desktop. But this is not the intention. There are much more dangerous things. After your computer is infected, it is possible to plant plug-ins to your private "web server". Among them - e-mailing to the hacker about content of your hard disks, read and e-mail all combinations of keys you have touched while being online - just suppose you have typed in the password to access your bank account. It does not matter, if you have changed ISP or ISP dynamically change your IP address - when your system is infected, it will always transmit actual IP address. There is more.
Back Orifice - set of programs, that started invasion in August 1998, originates from USA. Shortage Bo. Developed by group of hackers under the name "Cult of Dead Cow". All description above apply.
Netbus originates from Sweden and can infect Windows NT systems. Unlike Bo, who makes your computer open to everyone who has appropriate software, it require a password before hacker can get in.
Masters Paradise is from Germany and is the youngest in the family. It work not only with stand alone PCs but also with local area and wide area networks.
Sockets de Troie - Franch product, con do about the same tasks as Bo. Has own finger- and telnet clients.
Here are some links with news and protection sotware ( Dutch, but with screen images what to do )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:19 - ID#218423)
Seasons Greetings
A gift for Canadian bugs...See if you or your relatives have some unclaimed bank accounts still lying around. No charge, no hassle. Money for the claiming.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:34 - ID#219363)
Random Noise
Just a little random noise: Talked to an investor today who had a significant amount of money in the equity markets, broke down and sold it all this week. The drop this summer gave him a fright and when the market turned down this week he said "not again" and left. Wasn't a stupid investor either, had his act together and was able to talk about everything from the amount of surplus oil and negative interest rates to the yields on Jap bonds. He mentioned that cash and gold was where he was going. The writing is on the wall, and the smart money has left or is leaving.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:55 - ID#339274)
18 5/16,trying day.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 15:57 - ID#28994)
The conflict of interest laws are very strict in Canada,you must not be refering to the Supreme Court.
Who are appointed to rule for and in favour of the
Canadian Government.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:13 - ID#242264)
Not much of an end of day rally for gold, was it?

I am totally disgusted with gold's performance today. On Bloomberg they had this blurb to the effect that as the economy continues to show growth gold weakened. I don't get it - is everybody just looking in the rear view mirrow? Don't they see the writing on the wall? Today everybody went ballistic because some companies said that their earnings will be lower in the coming quarters. Well, duh - doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure this out.
So why don't people start looking at gold? Don't get it.
Sorry, had to get this off my chest.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:20 - ID#246224)
Why Newt Gingrich resigned. How the impeachment of Clinton will usher in the great 'crash' of 1999.
A deal was worked out that the only way that the Republi-cracts would 'allow' an impeachment would be if there would be no way possible that Newt could become President. If Gore was also impeached, then Newt would have been heir to the throne. Now there is no way for this to happen as Newt is soon to relenquish his seat. Such is political stagecraft in the USA in close to the end.

Expect to see lot of 'serious deliberations'. Know that the conclusion has already been written. There will be much activity and meanderings.

Stagecraft considerations are also being taken into account as this regards the actions of those who can forestall or hasten the inevitable destruction of this magnificient 'bubble'. They will play it close by the impeachment and will then commentate that this is the "REASON" for the sudden turn of events and fortunes ( thus hidding their relationship to the obvious ) . Note that the recent anouncement has been made that "the US has changed its strong dollar monetary policy.." with no subsequent rebuttal from Washinton. Also Rubin's recent resignation rumors. Stox are poised to follow the 'negative' outcome of the impeachment proceedings.


Excuse me. I feel like I have to go puke. This is the worse 'banana republic' level of corruption and maniupulation. May God judge those who are involved in this.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:27 - ID#45173)
Invite to Weekend Warriors
Need to let off some steam? While most discussion forums deteriorate slowly into vicious insults and name-calling, this one starts off that way, you pea-brained knee biter. This is a moderated site. Anyone caught treating the opinion of another member with civility and respect will be thrown off immediately! An annoying but brief registration with Delphi is required. This is a private forum. The registration code word is "eatme".

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:32 - ID#339274)
key juncture
Nem breaks below 18 ,next step down will be 15.50.
Cyclically we should have a nice run for the next two weeks.
Silver should top out around Christmas with the general market
Most bullish scenario gold next 4 weeks 308.
XAU has heavy resistance around 80,if it cannot break through
we have made a descending triple top and who knows where we end up.
35 end of February ?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:36 - ID#344326)
@ Allen(USA)
Where did you get the info for that last post? TIA

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:44 - ID#45173)
Allen(USA) re your 15:08
Alan Greenspan on 24th July 1998 said "Several Central Banks stand ready to halt a rise in the price of gold if that were to occur..."


It's all about managing panic.

In a panic out of paper assets, gold will tend to quickly consume shrinking liquidity. By pumping dollars in, the Fed can ( and has ) short-ciruited a liquidity panic. The last thing the Fed wants is to be pumping dollars in one end of the machine only to see it go out the other end as higher gold prices, leaving the credit markets choked off. That defeats the whole purpose. Thus the price of gold has to be carefully managed.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:47 - ID#344326)
Dow Transports
were down big today, 2.7% Dow Ind. should follow soon.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:53 - ID#317193)
CEF share price down to US $3.50 and NAV about US $3.84. So to exercise the rights at US $4.00 to get the warrants assumes that you determine the warrants will be worth between .16 and .50 cents.

One warrant allows you to buy 1 share at US $4.00 in May and if so then you get another warrant for each share bought to buy at US $4.00 in November.

Warrants will not trade until the rights expire. I'm going to exercise the bad can you get hurt...for me having the warrants ( options ) for at least six months is worth the maximum cost of the warrant which is .50 cents. Using the NAV it's .16 cents. Not much for the time value of the warrant.

Considering that I still observe a currency crisis at hand...the Euro coming out in a few weeks...derivatives out of wack...Clinton...well you folk know all that...What did Sir John Templeton a low?

Tops go to bottoms and bottoms go to tops...We watch this old gold market together. Y2k...what?


(Fri Dec 11 1998 16:57 - ID#286230)
Looks like gold didn't Care about Bill
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- The roll call by which the House Judiciary
Committee approved on a vote of 21-16 Friday an article of impeachment
charging President Clinton with perjury:

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:19 - ID#219363)
Still not sure what I think of this recent move down. Figure it'll probably go up or side-ways for a while as I can't see the current market in the history books the way it is, "The great double top and Christmas crash of 98", nope, just doesn't ring well in the ears. I'd say maybe we were ready for stage two ignition, but I've got the feeling that someone forgot to put fuel in stage two, and even better, that with the history of this bull in equities, we're on about stage two hundred and thirty four or something close. Who can say, who can say. The future she shifts around constantly with pretty colors and forms, never seems to decide until the last micro-second before the present rushes up on her, or maybe she's always known what she was going to be. I will cast one prediction out into the vortex, the CRB hasn't seen a bottom. She hit 188.29 as the low today, new 52 week low, made new lows almost every day this week. C'ya ! My guess is that she has a ways to go yet.


(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:24 - ID#344326)
No trades today. Anyone know anything?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:27 - ID#249232)
New low's recorded on the CRB
The price of copper ia approaching production costs around 60-65 cents per pound. The price of oil is already below production costs of $14 bbl in the US and Canada. The layoff and bankruptcies are yet to come in many industries. Some times in Jan and Feb 99 when corporate earning are announced, investors will be shocked to find out that their favorite company did not earned as much as the analysts predicted. Deflation creates all kind of surprises when least expected. Gold action today was very constructive as bullions declined but the XAU refused to move below last night closing.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:35 - ID#410196)
Check ride, no simulator available.

The board is quiet and we are all feeling a bit injured. The Tort. is not here to help us. Here is a little Christmas levity. Some among us will be pilots, evidently others enjoy guns. The connection with gold is that Santa's "enormous payload" occured because of all the specie he is carrying this year.

Santa Claus, like all pilots, gets regular visits from the Federal
Aviation Administration, and it was shortly before Christmas when the
FAA examiner

In preparation, Santa had the elves wash the sled and bathe all the
reindeer. Santa got his logbook out and made sure all his paperwork was
in order.

The examiner walked slowly around the sled. He checked the reindeer
harnesses, the landing gear, and Rudolf's nose. He painstakingly
Santa's weight and balance calculations for the sled's enormous payload.

Finally, they were ready for the checkride. Santa got in,fastened his
seatbelt and shoulder harness, and checked the compass. Then the
hopped in carrying, to Santa's surprise, a shotgun.

"What's that for?" asked Santa incredulously.

The examiner winked and said, "I'm not supposed to tell you this, but
you're gonna lose an engine on takeoff."

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:35 - ID#29048)
Ever the optimist....

Gold was technically-motivated today, said sources, noting that no fundamental news affected the market. "Nothing affected gold today except
the charts," a trader said. "When you look at other financial markets and
the fact that the dollar is weaker [against the yen], gold should have been firmer."

Sources said that stops were triggered under $290, although Feb subsequently managed to recoup some of its losses and end above this level. "Gold hit a technical point, and the funds sold it," a source said.

One source said he expects gold prices to spike again next week as the House considers impeachment proceeding against US president Bill Clinton. Late this afternoon, House Judiciary committe recommended the entire House impeach Clinton for perjury stemming from his Aug 17 testimony about his relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

"In that event, I would expect there would be a pretty interesting
decline for the dollar," said the source. "There's a perception out there
that a trial would tie up the administration for a few months, which would not be good for world economic conditions."

Some players also attributed gold's decline to deflationary concerns on a 0.2% slip in the November US Producer Price Index. "The deflation issue is really making the markets nervous," according to a trader. "That seems to be the focus more than anything else."

Sources said the gold fundamentals are sound, but that the concern over deflation is keeping pressure on a lot of commodities. "Low oil prices means less money for many parts of the world," a trader said. The trader said he doesn't expect any rebound in gold "until people are convinced that the reflationary action the government takes to lower interest rates will stimulate the economy."

The Commodity Research Bureau Index fell again today ending at 188.90 after slumping to a fresh 21-year low of 188.29. However, gold seems to be supported by physical buying from certain Asian regions, namely India and China, sources said.

Silver, meanwhile, traded in gold's shadow, with Mar ending down 1c at $4.80 per ounce. "Silver doesn't have a mind of its own today," a trader said. "It's doing whatever gold's doing."

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:41 - ID#219363)
Hong Kong Rich Tighten Their Belts
HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Under lavish crystal chandeliers, Hong Kong's socialites glitter with jade and diamonds as they nibble at caviar. Their smiles and outfits grace the society pages and details of their lives -- love affairs, health and bank accounts -- are the talk of the town. But behind the veil of glamour, Hong Kong's super-rich as well as its merely rich are learning to mind their dollars and cents as the territory's economy slides deeper into recession, thanks to the Asian financial crisis. "People are watching what they spend -- even the rich and famous," said Allan Zeman, chairman of Lan Kwai Fong Holdings, which controls properties in Hong Kong's trendy Lan Kwai Fong neighborhood. "Times are tougher in Asia right now and I think people are conscious about it."

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:43 - ID#20359)
Flash, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you...a tid-bit for ya...My Father grew up in
Tientsin...My detestation for the Red Chinese murderous dictatorial government is ever at its is of my own making...and has been slowly formed by reading and personal relationships that have evolved during my lifetime...

let this rest eh...I am...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 17:52 - ID#219363)
Hog Futures Plummet
Lean hog futures plunged nearly 7 percent Friday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, extending a sharp retreat, as a supply glut shows no signs of abating. On other markets, gold and cotton futures also fell sharply. Pork futures appear to be caught in a downward spiral caused in part by overproduction that began two years ago, when prices were sharply higher. Producers, many of them large hog mills, expanded their herds amid expectations of increase global demand. Instead, the global economic crisis rocked Asia, causing demand to fall sharply.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:05 - ID#28994)
A few years ago many farmers jumped on the high pork wagon as a way to realize an better margin for there cheap corn,sell the corn by running it through the pig first.
The pig always looks greener on the other side of the fence.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:12 - ID#391172)
Allen USA
I 've been thinking of your post regarding AG and the CB's " ready to keep the price of gold down".

OK, so they sell gold to keep the price down. What do they get for it? Thier own fiat money. The last thing they want. That's the argument FDR had for his 1933 action, our gold was being sucked out of the counry, so, the CB's are getting thier gold sucked. They can't like that?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:38 - ID#18355)
coleman generators
is coleman a good name in generators. what should i look for when buying used or slightly used? thanks

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:41 - ID#28994)
Neer Do Well
Myself I could never figure out why many Goldbugs wanted the price of gold to rise. For what purpose.....To sell for what they call worthless fiat money.
They should hope for $10 gold....look how much more they could purchase,then when Y2k comes they will be cazzilionaires.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:41 - ID#252150)
It could'nt happen to a better (worse) guy.
Because of a stain
The President lost his claim
To honour and fame

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:44 - ID#20359)

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:52 - ID#20359)
let me try that again...>

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:54 - ID#252150)
Allen @ Your 15:08. If you are counting on Euroland to ride to the rescue of
AU, then I'm afraid that you will probably be in for a disappointment.
As we are all well aware, AU is the mortal enemy of the paper pushers. Euroland is run by a bunch of socialists who need to continually flog incredible amounts of paper in order to run their fiefdoms. It is no more in their interest to let AU reassert itself than it is in the Fed's interest. With their intractable hi unemployment & commitment to social programs they wil never voluntarily allow AU to become a safe haven for the average plebe.

Now that I've thought about how hopeless the situation is-at least near term-the BGR Prec Mtl that I thought I got so cheaply yesterday, doesn'nt seem so cheap anymore.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:55 - ID#20359)
I give up if this won't work...>

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:55 - ID#219363)
Retail Sales Up 0.6 Percent
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- American consumers have money and are spending it this holiday shopping season, taking home billions of dollars in new cars, furniture and clothing. Department stores and other general merchandisers reported their best sales in nine months in November, the start of the important season when stores ring up one-fifth of their annual sales. Auto dealers recorded brisk sales for a third consecutive month. "It's hard to keep consumers from spending as long as they have the money, and they seem to have the money," said economist Rosalind Wells of the National Retail Federation.
Bless the US consumer's spending heart, they drive this economy.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 18:56 - ID#219363)
Wheat, Soybean Futures Retreat
CHICAGO ( AP ) -- Soybean and wheat futures retreated Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, while corn futures advanced. Soybeans fell amid concern that rain falling in southern Brazil would provide enough moisture to relieve dryness and cause stressed crops there to bounce back. Brazil is the world's second-largest producer behind the United States, and prospects that it might harvest a plentiful crop on top of record production here worries investors. Large world supplies would come at a time of relatively weak world demand. Wheat futures also retreated amid indications U.S. exporters continue to lose business to competitors. Wheat inventories remain near eight-year highs as the global economic crisis cuts into demand prospects.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:08 - ID#253418)
Good point From Fleckenstien
"Investors fleeing dollar?... During all of this ( the stcok market action ) an important development
was ignored: In one of the more dramatic days that I've seen in many
years, the dollar was under pressure again today and the bonds closed
down a full point. What's remarkable about that is the fact that
commodities have been very weak and you wouldn't expect to see the
bond market and commodities getting drubbed on the same day.

I believe this is happening because we are seeing a real exodus out of the
dollar. As that occurs Treasury papers are sold because quite often that is
where foreigners have their dollars parked. I think we're beginning to see
an early flight away from the dollar. That is unequivocally bearish for the
financial markets, and today is one of the unique days where you can get a
tip-off on something like that.

Crazy day indeed - deflation kncoking gold and gold shares, horrible technical picture developing in the XAU - what is one to do???

Suspect that next week will see gold reestablish itself if the dollar continues to fall. The stock market is getting long in the tooth.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:15 - ID#219363)
AGREED! Not a good sign, especially when combined with the earlier report that the bond sales were large block sales and not institutional folks who were evening out the porfolios. That, to me, screams that something is up, that some type of organization ( really big ) decided that bonds weren't the place to be. Hmmm, wonder who that could be. Who could be in a position where they need to dump a large number of bonds and was large enough to make those kinds of trades. Who would see a lot of benefit in getting out of US bonds right now or in the very near future.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:15 - ID#30345)
Hey T1 this one is good too.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:20 - ID#219363)
Bonds Fall on Impeachment Worries
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Bond prices fell Friday as impeachment of the president seemed more likely and news of strong retail sales and a slumping dollar cooled demand for fixed income securities.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:23 - ID#30345)
Could people be pulling out of the dollar and into the currencies that will become the Euro? The bond market is softening and the deflation fears remain. The metals will pick up steam as the dollar's slide accelerates. Watch the equites not really be the place for the dollars to flee to and just sit there until the new tax year. We shall see the equities sag, and commodities rally but not significantly until the first quarter when the dollar, equities, and bonds sag ( relative to the commodities in dollar terms ) .

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:25 - ID#20359)
longj, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I missed was probably right in front of
me as I was looking for it...I tried to post the various email comments that have been received at CNN regarding Clintler...

I am disgusted with the media in general as they are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at keeping Clintler in office...pretty soon I expect to see global warming...the spread of being part of what is happening due to Clintler being removed from office...

sad...sad...commentary...the upside is I think 10s of millions of Americans are getting really hacked off as I feel the majority want him removed...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:27 - ID#219363)
Don't look now
But three or four more days of "profit taking" like we had last night on the Nikkei will push it into new lows. She lost 400 and some odd points and ended up at about 14400 or so, 13000 being the latest in a long line of lows. C'ya !

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:31 - ID#254321)
Col Hackworth's opinion of our Security leaks at the White House
All: You will enjoy this! Col Hackworth has a colorful way of summarizing what we already know about the 'open door' security policy at the White House.

I think WJC will be impeached. But -- it will not be because of Monica. It will be because of criminal charges yet to be made. Undounbtedly many in congress already know what's coming. WJC's laywers do -- they said so. Just the security breaches alone are staggering news. During wartime, people would be executed for such treasonous acts. Now -- I do not blame the Communist Chinese in this -- you cannot blame them for accepting top secret documents given to them.

My guess is that the criminal charges will be made after WJC steps down, given the fact that they are so sensational. And -- I haven't even mentioned Ron Brown, Webster Hubbell, and Vince Foster or the other XXXGates. It's all starting to unravel -- in slow motion.

It will be interesting to see if Hillary and Al Gore can pass through the storm to come out unscathed.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:34 - ID#219363)
I don't know, but I think today was revealing. If the dollar sold, bonds sold, commodities sold, precious metals sold, and equities sold, well, where the hell did the money go ? Might be crazy, but I get the feeling all that money left the United States and went somewhere else.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:40 - ID#30345)
Nah. I firmly believe that the American people have not seen the light. They think of the presidency as a soap opera. Just entertainment; they want to continue the unpaid for handouts and the speculative growth of equiteis. They are deluded into the belief that America is a healthy businees environment. Their idea of a good investment has notheing to do with dividends, or real earnings. The stock market is a place for IPO's for companies to get the entrepeneur's rich not as a place to start a solid company nd repurchase shares after financing capital has produced a useful company.

This is pure debauchery at this point, but eventually competition and a lack of return on specultion will precipitate a new sobriety. Unfortunately for the merican peopleo, this will come to late for a painless ( maybe catastrophic ) solution. You may see people lighting cigars with worthless fifty dollar bills ( I intend to save one for this purpose ) but you shall also see widespread loan defaults and unemployment.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:42 - ID#30345)
Exactly my point. This was not american held investment in america, it was the beginning of a repatriation effort. Look out those dollars are a comin' home, but they are being vaporized into the stock market and FX markets. Please help me out on this one if my perception is erroneous.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:44 - ID#30345)
Exactly my point. This was not american held investment in america, it was the beginning of a repatriation effort. Look out those dollars are a comin' home, but they are being vaporized into the stock market and FX markets. Please help me out on this one if my perception is erroneous.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:49 - ID#20359)
The Year of the fitting eh...

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:54 - ID#209265)
Tolerant - Thanks for the info on . . .
the Cuban cigar ban. I can't claim to be a cigar expert, but some US folks will drive 2 hours from Buffalo and 5 hours from Detroit just to get there real Havanas.

The only reason I know about the famous thigh-rolling technique for making them is that Sherritt ( the folks who are doing the gold mining in Cuba ) put on a demonstration to promote awareness of Cuban culture here in TO.

You might even convince me to try a puff from one- but don't be surprised if I double over coughing : )

- Steve

(Fri Dec 11 1998 19:59 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.32. The 233 day moving average is 29.27

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:01 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .226. The 233 day moving average is .248

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:03 - ID#30345)
I just drew myself a picture. The american FX guts are now holding a larger portion of their currency as dollars. This makes sense if there was a concerted effort to prop up the dollar. They sold foriegn currency and bought dollars ( net ) . Maybe at the behest of AG and RR? Also remenber that alot of the valuation in the stock market is just ride up money and is destroyed. Also with fears of inflation bonds might be tougher to unload in volume. If the yields did not rise perhaps there was intervention there too.

Steve in TO
(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:03 - ID#209265)
Silver - anyone know how much . . .
demand is generated by the photography industry? I thought it would be 5 years before digital photography would take off- but an article in the lates Canadian Computer Wholesaler magazine claims that cheap affordable 2000 X 2000 pixel cameras will be affordable for consumers 2 years from now.

That also indicates that the high-end equipment that professionals use will come down dramatically in price too. The pros use *huge* amounts of film. 40 to 100 rolls a day is common. What if half the film business dries up as digital cameras take over?

- Steve

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:06 - ID#285430)
"Myself I could never figure out why many Goldbugs wanted the price of gold to rise. For what purpose.....To sell for what they call worthless
fiat money?" --skinny

Nonsense! We own gold because it is real money, and it's not worthless.
I worked hard today and I don't have any particular place to spend my
money, and so I immortalize my day's toil in a certain amount of gold
which will never be destroyed. Perhaps one day I will trade today's
toil for something, perhaps not.

But to see my hard work merely NOTED, and not actually
compensated--that's downright insanity. That's why they are Federal Reserve NOTES... because your work has been 'noted' and nothing else!
( It's not a 'note' in any formal definition of what a 'note' is... )

"They should hope for $10 gold....look how much more they could
purchase,then when Y2k comes they will be cazzilionaires." --skinny

I guess I do hope for $10 gold... man I'd go get big fat bricks of
it then even on my eager income! But don't believe it, buddy. The
day they are giving away gold on the streets, the day Joe Average
owns a solid gold telephone, that's the day I will sprout wings and fly


(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:11 - ID#30345)
Could be that the fund guys did not reinvest and are in a ( net ) higher cash position as well. This would be consistent with thier ( generalized ) view of possible deflation.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:23 - ID#34883)
Scrooge Revisal?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:24 - ID#20359)
Steve In TO, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya, but don't inhale that Cuban...silver stuff for ya...
The fabrication of silver for use by the world's photographic sector rose by 3.5 percent to 232.3 million ounces in 1997, representing 27 percent of total silver fabrication demand. ( this info in first link )

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:27 - ID#30345)
@envy errata babble
On my 20:11 add- They also are beginning to be jittery of the market bcause of impeachment and overvaluations.

On my 20:03 substitute the words "dollar slide" for the last "inflation".

Also people doing the stuff have to be consistent with sitting on gold, they were not buying this stuff today; ( net ) tax loss selling.

I guess the uncertainty was pushing people into cash and out of the dollar ( net ) .

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:29 - ID#34883)
Who's Soros now?

Gusto Oro
(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:34 - ID#430260)
silver & film
Steve, on silver use for photography--it is true the digital market will grow quickly. However, the third world, which is the bigger piece of pie, will also grow quickly into cheap cameras and silver use for photography is not expectedto stop growing till the year 2007 I believe. --Al

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:34 - ID#20359)
Mole, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya I HOPE EVERYONE reads the post on Soros
it is excellent...Soros is Camdesuss turned inside out...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:43 - ID#30345)
@t1, Mole re:soros
Well, at least he regognized the excesses of floating currency. Maybe he is chipping away at the bank of the good ol' US of A. Yep they will sure try to defend that dollar. Maybe with a little help from the Euro, he can set off a panic. Yippie yigh yay. A finacial gunslinger comes to the rescue of the gold standard and causes chaos ( at least for some ) .

Good stuff.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:45 - ID#262242)
Home again
It is good to be home. Hello to all my friends. The markets are in their usual mode, gyrating up and down.

Fred, received all your letters.

Tolerant1, good to see you are still alive and kicking.

And oh yes-------GO GOLD

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:47 - ID#43460)
Here is the CEF info site re the upcoming sale
FWIW I am not going to buy any. For those who are following my opinion as a contrary indicator I wish you luck!

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:49 - ID#34883)
Namaste'. Heres another link with a more indepth inquiry ( sorry for the repost for those who read the post the 1st time ( about a year ago ) & the 2nd time ( about a week ) . I find Reisman's critique fascinating and rare; he's not critiquing Soros for the usual print that gets bandied about in the media...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:49 - ID#20359)
BillInOregon, Namaste' a hearty gulp and a puff to ya from the Island that is Long...
alive...yes...kicking...not for a while...ouch...glad you and yours got home safely...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 20:59 - ID#20359)
Mole, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...'tis printing...I shall read it later...looks good...
longj,Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Soros has not JUST discovered the flaws of the fiat system and he has profited enormously by taking advantage of each and every one of those imperfections...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:03 - ID#286230)
Another lining of silver
Friday, December 11, 1998

Millennium bug will boost economy

Capital spending soars

The Financial Post
It may yet wreak havoc in 2000, but the millennium bug is expected to be a boon for
the economy next year, according to a study released yesterday by Canadian Imperial
Bank of Commerce.

Behind that forecast is a veritable spending frenzy, fuelled by the technological
challenge of converting computer systems to accommodate the date switchover.

Canadian firms' capital spending budgets to fix the Y2K problem have soared to
hundreds of millions of dollars.

Regulatory filings in the U.S. show the toll has topped $1.1-billion for a single firm,
AT &T Corp.

The spending explosion -- plus some inevitable stockpiling of goods -- will boost
gross domestic product by nearly a third of a percent in 1999, concludes John
Clinkard, CIBC's senior economist and author of yesterday's report.

"The near-term effects of the Year 2000 phenomenon will take the form of increased
spending on computer hardware, software and consulting services," he predicts.

Increased spending is already in evidence, with many firms having been at work for
up to four years.

In Canada, the largest Y2K budget appears to belong to Bank of Montreal, which
plans to spend $345-million. CIBC and Royal Bank of Canada expect to spend about
$200-million each.

In the U.S., many major banks are expecting to spend well over $500-million ( US ) ,
with Citigroup Inc. topping the list at $650-million ( US ) .

The Y2K bug has proved to be a drag on other capital spending initiatives, as it
sucks up the lion's share of the information technology budget, said Ray Thornton,
vice-president of Royal Bank's year 2000 team.

Most major Canadian banks expect to be finished converting their systems within
months, but trials set for next year promise to be a continuing drain on expenses.

High-technology firms are also on the hook in a big way. Northern Telecom Ltd. is
budgeting about $235-million on Y2k.

Others less exposed to software will also have to cough up. Seagram Co. is spending

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:05 - ID#330280)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 11

Gold 825,838 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 77,906,415 - 633,541 troy ounces
Copper 83,450 + 1,727 short tons

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:05 - ID#43460)
tolerant1 thanks for the URLs, Steve I think not
tolerant1, thanks! We silverfish need to think of a secret password that we won't tell the gold bugs. ( 8-^] )

Steve in TO, Being the proud but puzzled owner of a digital camera ( all of 2 days old ) I don't know that it is worth the effort. While it bodes to be an easier way of getting 10,000 pictures of my dog onto the internet to further clog up bandwidth it is terribly S-L-O-W to upload, crop and print. Plus the 4 megapixel camera you mention will get all of 2 pics on an 8 meg flash memory, maybe 3 with digital compression. I'm sorry but I just can't see digital matching the convenience of Polaroid any time in the next few years. ( But don't pay particular attention. I thought the same thing of Captain Kirk's cell phone thirty years ago. )

Bill Buckler
(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:08 - ID#256381)
Selby: Silver Linings - or Broken Windows
Y2K will boost the economy eh. Marvellous, isn't it. Did you ever read a little book called "Economics in one Lesson" by Henry Hazlitt? He starts off with what he correctly identifies as the most pervasive fallacy in modern economics - The "broken window" fallacy.

This is a wonderful example of it.

Latest charts and commentary up at The Privateer website

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:11 - ID#30345)
I know that he didn't just REALIZE it. But the opportunistic guy that he is, is also smart enough to recognize when to strike for best effect.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:14 - ID#30345)
gone, enjoy
go gold.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:19 - ID#35757)
@Bill Buckler
If it's not too complicated, would you care to elaborate on 'the broken window'?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:19 - ID#230216)
EJ - pssst.....xsysc
Looks like there were plenty of buyers today. 136,000 is BIG volume.

And the price came back up to my break-even ( minus Commish ) ;- ) .......ohmy! The Sheller says that right about now is MAX pull on the planets......... ( easy does it lgb ) ................tick-tock.

I wish I could help you make your decision for staying in or getting out. I do have some suggestions regarding the matter.

1. Have both an ENTRY target as well as an EXIT target.....always

2. Stick to the targets and get out if it reaches high or low target

3. If you lost 47% so far perhaps you'll wait till.....say............52% total loss ( sounds good anyway ) .

4. If this target is reached than bail and don't look back

5. If you bail and it comes back then have a point ( target ) for re-entry.

6. Good success

It has been the demise of many ( traders ) that they do not plan their work and work their plan............... ( they have NO plan ) . Many a dollar will escape your grasp this way.......many.

on another somewhat related note....... I like the old addage, " a fool and his mone"........wait, that's not it. "Do not chase a loss". It is kinda like when that fine gentleman ( the other day ) said he lost ALL his money and then some on gold stocks. He bought at $20.00 then $10.00 tthen $5.00 then 20.......until..........SNAP! Contrary to what som e may say this is NOT dollar-cost averaging.......uh uh........this is that 'fool and his money' thingy..........uh huh.

I am sure these are things that you already know......thanks for reading anyway : )

go golf. the homestead for a tinnie......yummy


(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:25 - ID#190411)
big Mole,
I see that you are a hardcore laisses faire type, Austrian economics, Paleolibertarian.
Thanks for the URL's.
I was a Randian a long time ago. Heck, I still have Greasepan's original essay about the gold standard from the Objectivist days, and lots of George Reisman stuff. He was one of her anointed ones.
I tend more to Rothbard and Rockwell now. Rand was a cultist, and wanted to control every aspect of her followers thoughts and lives. I just want freedom. Gold is freedom.
-Sure do miss Murray Rothbard.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:26 - ID#230216)
Could you post the UPDATED ( through Fri ) Bollinger band chart for gold? Complete witht hose circles and arrows?

Charles Keeling
(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:39 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: Blood Money
Tolerant 1: Just in case some actually does claim that
that rising HIV rates ared ue to Clitons impeachment.

GO GOLD.....Just as soon as WJC is out of there.

Tainted Blood Scandal

Arkansas Merchants of Death

by Paul Craig Roberts

If news stories trickling out of Canada are true, impeachment is too good for Bill Clinton. Drawing and quartering would be more appropriate.

According to these reports, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are
conducting a criminal investigation of an illegal blood collection scheme
with links to then Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. During the 1980s,
"hot blood" contaminated with hepatitis C and HIV was taken from Arkansas
prisoners and sold to Canada, where the plasma ended up in blood products
for hemophiliacs.

According to Mark Kennedy, an investigative reporter for the Ottawa
Citizen, the prisoners' plasma was sold to Canada for about $50 a unit,
and the revenues were split between Health Management Associates, the
private firm that ran the blood program for Cummins State Prison in Grady, Arkansas, and the Arkansas Department of Corrections.

Allegations of Governor Clinton's involvement surfaced on the Canadian
TV program "Bynon" on October 15. According to Dr. Michael Galster, a
doctor in private practice who treated Cummins' prisoners for the state, the FDA shut down Health Management Associates three times during the
1980s for its improper practices.

The blood program, however, was too profitable to stay shut. Each time,
HMA was able to regroup and continue the blood program. According to
Dr. Galster, a 1986 public inquiry into HMA's operations produced a
deposition that HMA was kept in business by Governor Clinton's intervention in its behalf.

According to Dr. Galster, one deposition alleges that Clinton told HMA
officials, who boasted of their contacts to him, that if they would pay
$100,000 to a designated judge, "he would see to it that their contract
would be renewed for the next two years."

Dr. Galster says that news reports show that Clinton defended HMA on
dozens of occasions from media attacks on its practices.

The suffering caused in Canada by contaminated U.S. blood has been a
major political issue in that country for the past five years or more. A
commission headed by Justice Horace Krever was established to determine
how prison plasma ended up in Canadian veins. The failure of Canada's
regulatory authority is a hotly debated issue, as is compensation by the
government of the victims.

Dr. Galster says that during the 1980s he often noticed prisoners with
Band-Aids over the vein in their arm. Unable to find reports of blood
work in their files, he questioned the prisoners, who responded to his
inquiries by explaining that they had just donated blood.

Dr. Galster knew the prisoners were too ill to be blood donors. But it did not occur to him that the state prison would be involved in profiteering on dirty blood, and he assumed that HMA had a method of filtering or cleansing the plasma.

It was only years later when he read a Canadian report tracing the
contaminated blood to Arkansas that he put two and two together.

The result was a fictional novel, "Blood Trail," written under the pen-name of Michael Sullivan. Dr. Galster thought that his thinly disguised novel would prompt U.S. journalists to investigate.

But he found that he over-estimated the investigative inclinations of the U.S. media, at least where Mr. Clinton is concerned. Galster began investigating himself, and found the truth to be a more amazing story than his fiction.

Dr. Galster has turned the documents he has uncovered over to the Mounties, who might or might not be permitted by the Canadian government to bring charges where they belong.

No doubt Galster is interested in promoting his book, but he seems genuinely outraged that public officials were part of a business that did not mind infecting and killing people if a dollar could be made.

At any rate, Galster's evidence has reinvigorated a debate and an investigation that the Canadian government had hoped was over. Ottawa reporter Mark Kennedy shows no signs of letting go of the story. Recently, he interviewed two of the Arkansas officials who ran the prison plasma business. He was stunned when they defended the business as a way of providing prisoners with "pocket money."

Dr. Galster says prisoners have told him, and are willing to testify, that they were paid in narcotics for their blood. Some prisoners were so drained of plasma that they were left on the point of death, a condition that Dr. Galster says is cited in the FDA reports.

Canadian reporters are amazed that their U.S. counterparts have ignored this story.

Distributed by Creator's Syndicate, Dec. 31, 1998

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:42 - ID#257351)
EJ, ne'er-do-well, James re: gold
EJ - good point about managing panic. As regards to rising gold price sucking up pumped out dollars, I'm not so sure the relatively thin gold market could absorb that many dollars, really. Compared to dollars gold is quite scarce.

ne'er-do-well - I do not believe CB's directly involve themselves. They use banks or one kind or another. These banks are capitalized with
"accounts" which they "manage" on behalf of the CB. Activities are probably all on paper and I expect that in the end an 'default' will occure which will wipe out the market and completely obliterate any claims except that those who physically possess the gold will be the owners. In this case the CB's will still be the owners since they never let the gold out of their vaults in the first place.

James - Europeans are, generally, pragmatists. If they want to attract players to their game they will develop the game in such a way as to appeal to those selfsame players. BTW Germany, France and Italy know the power of gold and will never let themselves be fooled by 'believing' in any paper system. I feel that their new currrency system is not so much based on gold as a backing but instead as a throttle to monetary growth. In this way they can keep themselves from ecessive monetary growth .. which has been the bane of all paper money systems ever since someone thought of them ( see History of Money by Dave Barry ) .

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:48 - ID#257351)
crazytimes re Gingrich

Just an epiphany on my part, oinsider info. Just was reading one of the impeachment reports in the local news and realized that Newt's resignation after his successful reelection sure was no sudden inspiration. Starting to see the pieces falling together. If I can see this it must be pretty bad ( obvious ) ;- )

Why else would Newt resign just as the impeachment process was starting in earnest? Things are planned. These people do not like or tolerate surprises. They 'manage' events and are not managed by them. Newt was sacrificed for the greatergood of whoever has the real power.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:49 - ID#34883)
ERLE: I don't really agree with anything that you just said,laugh, except what you attributed to yourself :/? ... I surmise from you posts your familiar with much of the literature & you got a sense of humor too, it helps, but don't pigeon hole me, the field is vast and in many respects uncharted. Whatever motives the individual authors ( cited ) held is lessor than the knowledge they managed to expound.

My gold shares got pummeled today. Makes no sense. Now yesterday made sense.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:52 - ID#257351)
Sleepy time here.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:55 - ID#373403)
How are Year 2000 Preparations Affecting the Economy?
Remarks by Governor Edward W. Kelley, Jr.
At the Annual Economic Symposium at Houston Baptist University
October 29, 1998

Countdown to Y2K: An Economic Assessment

( This is only a quote from the text, not the complete speech )

Corporate efforts to deal with the Y2K problem are affecting economic activity in a variety of ways. On the positive side, an important element in some Y2K programs is the accelerated replacement of aging computer systems with modern, state-of-the-art hardware and software. Such capital expenditures should raise the level of productivity in those enterprises, and, in general, the need to address the Y2K problem has increased the awareness on the part of senior executives of the complexity and importance of managing corporate information technology resources. The increased replacement demand also has contributed to the spectacular recent growth in this country's computer hardware and software industries. But, ultimately, we are largely shifting the timing of these investment expenditures: Today's added growth is likely "borrowed" from spending at some time in the future. And, while accelerating some systems investments, many institutions will "freeze" their systems in the middle of 1999--effectively forgoing the installation of major new hardware and software systems as we approach the millennium. This certainly will also influence spending on technology--shifting some of it out of 1999 and into 2000.

While a shift in the timing of investment spending may help to solve the Year 2000 problem for some firms, it certainly will not be sufficient. Most organizations do not have the option of simply scrapping their existing computer systems and replacing them with shiny new "turn-key" hardware and software. To one degree or another, we all rely on elaborate proprietary software systems that have been developed over many years, and these programs must be debugged by a skilled programmer. This obviously is a very labor-intensive and time-consuming process, and organizations have had to boost their IT staffs to carry out this work. The good news is that many got an early start on this problem and are now well along on their repair and testing programs. The bad news is that there is no corresponding increase in the firm's marketable output, and this lowers the overall level of productivity in the enterprise, boosts its costs, and reduces its profitability.

One area in which uncertainty about Y2K readiness is likely to have noticeable effects on economic activity in 1999 is in the management of inventories. As the millennium approaches, I expect businesses will want to hold larger inventories of goods as insurance against Y2K-related supply disruptions. Such a shift from "just-in-time" inventory management to a "just-in-case" posture is likely to prompt an increase in orders and production during 1999. These stocks subsequently would be run off in the first half of 2000. We at the Fed, for example, will do precisely that in our management of the production of new currency.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 21:59 - ID#20359)
Charles Keeling, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I have followed that story to some
degree as there has NOT been a great deal of coverage as stated in your post...that is...if act ( s ) which fits the definition of the word heinous...

I wonder when Clintler looks in the mirror if there is a reflection...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:04 - ID#219363)
I think it's probably as simple as just the dollar. If you're in the US and you buy something off the Nikkei, then the Yen tanks, you've lost money, even if your stock just sits there at the same value. Reason is just that the stock is denominated in Yen and if you weren't holding a Yen hedge against the currency movement, well, you're toast. What do you do when the Yen looks weak ? Sell all the stuff you hold denominated in Yen, because it's all going to be discounted, the equities, the bonds, real estate, everything. I think that's probably what's been happening to the US markets as the dollar showed a little weakness, foreign folks just don't want to see their investments in bonds, etc, just fade away into weak dollar-ville. All the US stuff ( well, except "stuff" ) is toppy, so people scare easy, especially foreign folks who are watching our President get raked over the coals in real time.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:10 - ID#210114)
Central Banks and Gold Greenspan 24 July 1998

Potential Application of the CEA to OTC Derivatives. The vast majority of privately negotiated OTC contracts are settled in cash rather than through delivery. Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. ( Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years. ) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:18 - ID#201145)
yellowcab (generators)
One way or another generators are going to be real cheap in Feb or March of 2000. Best thing to look for in buying a generator is a very very large storage tank for fuel.

My family can afford a generator. But we can't afford the amount of fuel I think it would need. So if y2k is real, we won't have electricity here. But then that generator money may have gone to something else usefull. If when you think of fuel storage you think of an underground farm tank of several thousand gallons, you may be set, but if fuel storage calls a 5gal gas can into your mind, consider a generator very carefully.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:25 - ID#219363)
World Markets
Maybe someday the world markets will be fluid enough to allow investors to buy and sell in different denominations, sure would cut down on the number of weird hedge positions you have to invent to trade these days. Imagine being able to place a bid for Random-Japanese-Bank in silver, then turning around and selling it for a few hundred shares of Random-Swiss-Utility before accepting a bid in dollars. Lot of money gets burned in transactions through currencies and with hedge instruments in positions designed to limit loss on currency movements. Besides, it'd be kind of fun watching the bids move across the screen and choosing what you're willing to accept as payment, kinda puts the choice back into the whole thing. Barter, I like it, I like it a lot.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:27 - ID#227238)
Bill Buckler:
Given the present stasis of POG, it would seem that the controllers must deal with a different set of factors.

I agree that they have drawn a USD 300 line in the sand but maintaining it there will require effort of a different sort. While laggard markets tend to decay, further erosion of POG will result in increasing attention by the retail trade and an increase in volume resulting in greater offtake of physical. Retail demand for bullion coins in 1998 would tend to bear that out.

The Fed will probably need to lower rates further if the frightful condition of the CRB is to be taken seriously. In the process, those who have been counted on in the past, by the Fed, to lease and sell short will likely find the process less inviting due to the lower interest rate spread.

As time progresses the Fed will find itself in a position of having to choose its field of battle. For lowering interest rates destroys and/or removes its allies in the battle against a rising POG. To maintain both positions, it would probably need to dump bullion directly without the cover of "leasing".

Failing that, the only thing available is to dissuade the many from holding gold and seek to provide them with some justification to dump their bullion holdings en masse.

They, the banks, don't seem to have many choices available to them.

I enjoyed very much your comment on the need to maintain "resources inside the fiat system". I agree, the banks cannot allow them to escape and become converted to resouces outside the range of fiat control.

As always, the "Privateer" is a useful and interesting read.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:31 - ID#340383)

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:32 - ID#219363)
World Markets: Nevermind
Just realized that what I said in my last post could be accomplished even easier with a single world currency, and I know I don't want that, so nevermind the whole affair *shiver*. I like things the way the are.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:34 - ID#20359)
yellowcab, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...this may be of help in your quest...

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:41 - ID#340383)
Yellowcab... My homely daughter, but you auto-meter...
We recently bought a 5000-watt generator from Costco for $400., and then, upon advice from friends, traded it in on a $700. Coleman generator with a very quiet, fuel-sipping Honda engine which is rated at 3000 watts.

We'll be able to easily take the 3000-watter camping with us, after the Y2K thingy is over. Other campers will not be easily offended at the noise level.

So, the quietness is an important factor. And the small consumption of fuel is very important. No matter what you think of the Y2K situation, the Coleman generator will be a welcome part of my family's vacations for years to come.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:50 - ID#227238)
Speaking of generators:
Just placed an order today for some inverters. Surprise, surprise. They are not available off the shelf. It will require a week or two for the next shipment. ..... It seems that the mfr is having trouble keeping up with demand. ...... The good news was that the supplier is not trying to fatten margins.

Large deep cycle batteries are still available locally at good prices.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 22:54 - ID#285430)
Don't wait till the bank runs... liquidate NOW!!!!
Hi folks, just trying to start a panic. Letting you know that it's
big big folly to assume the bank runs will happen in December of 1999.
Nobody's THAT stupid. Liquidate NOW. And when I mean liquidate,
I mean turn it into the shiney yellow stuff!


THE Priest
(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:03 - ID#371242)
My Chaos Indicator
My Chaos Indicator is starting to rise

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:03 - ID#286230)
Bill Buckler (Selby: Silver Linings - or Broken Windows)
No I haven't seen the book but I think I'm living the theme.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:04 - ID#218222)
Any questions??? Bout sums it up for me!!!
From Dan Ascani:

Two Tumbles And A Jump: Is November Fed Ease Enough To Save Stock Market?

An Excerpt From Our December Market Letter Released December 11, 1998

December 12, 1998 00:50 GMT -- Sometimes raw notes can present the best picture of what is
occurring in the global marketplace, without all the hoopla of dramatic wording like Supernova of the
global monetary system ( even if such words appear in my notes! ) . You might have guessed that the
analyst making the notes that follow is yours truly. They present a partial and relevant picture of current
economic events as they relate to the financial markets and recommended investment strategies.

*Part of the result of the Supernova of the global monetary system will be the first challenge to the world
reserve currency, presently the U.S. dollar, since the dollar challenged pound sterling during the last
Supernova of the global monetary system earlier this century.

*Another result will be the emergence of a viable rival currency, which will pull capital flows away from the
country that presently maintains the world reserve currency. In this case, it will be the euro that rivals the
U.S. dollar, and many countries will re-denominate their reserves in euros as well as dollars. This will
create a capital inflow into Europe once the euro is perceived as being a stable currency. The euro, then,
is like an Initial Public Offering ( IPO ) .

*Just ahead of the 1930s Depression, the United States was moving along just swimmingly, but the global
economy was collapsing. The United Kingdom was beginning to experience the worst deflation in its
history, and markets were collapsing. Many people had thought that the United States would have been
just fine if it weren't for the collapse of the global economy. Sound familiar?

*In 1930, the U.S. Wholesale Price Index was showing an annual rate of deflation of only about 1% or so. It
was not apparent to most that the deflationary cycle had begun and that it would become very severe
before it was all over. 1930 was the year following the global crashes of 1929. In 1998, the U.S. was
moving along ostensibly swimmingly, and then the globe collapsed. In 1998, the U.S. Wholesale Price
Index has also been declining at an annual rate of about 1% ( 1997 saw an annual rate of deflation of 1.1%
in the U.S. ) . Is the condition of the global monetary system in 1998 like 1930?

*In November of 1929, the Federal Reserve Board eased interest rates after a period of tight monetary
policy. The markets responded with a rally that lasted until April 1930.

*In November 1998, the Federal Reserve Board eased interest rates and the market responded with a

*In 18 of the 19 times the Federal Reserve Board has eased interest rates twice, the market has
responded with sharp rallies to record highs--as much as 30% or more in stock appreciation. The only
time in 19 occurrences that the market didn't respond was after the November 1929 easing of rates, after
which the market responded with a rally but, instead, registered a net decline of 23% in the 12 months
following the November 1929 rate decline. The deflationary global collapse was to blame for this
ostensibly anomalous event.

*Not so anomalous is the economic long wave of debt creation and repudiation commonly called the
Kondratieff Cycle. It takes 50-60 years of economic expansion to accumulate enough excesses in debt
creation to get to the point at which borrowers can no longer service that debt and it is defaulted upon. In
1930, the only time in 19 occurrences the Fed ease did not power the U.S. stock market substantially
higher, the debt repudiation part of the Kondratieff cycle was getting underway. The resulting deflation
overpowered any easy money policy. In 1998, once again we stand at that part of the Kondratieff Cycle
that is characterized by debt repudiation, and once again it is occurring abroad. Once again, likely in
1999 through 2002/2003 when the Kondratieff Cycle bottoms, the resulting global deflation and debt
default should overpower any easy money policy.

I have many more notes that I could present across many additional pages. Suffice it to say that, for the
first time this decade, the fundamentals are not supporting the case for higher stock prices. Only available
cash and overly ebullient sentiment on the part of investors can power the market even higher than it is

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:09 - ID#219363)
Science Question
If the solar system was created by swirling stuff around gravity centers, that is, stuff just spinning around as the sun was born, falling in on itself until the planets were created, then why aren't they all the same ? Take Europa, the moon of Jupiter with all the water on it, why does it have a bunch of water on it and not the other moons ? Why do some of the planets have more iron in them than other ones if they were all created out of the same swirling stuff ? Why aren't all the moons of Jupiter made out of the same kinda things instead of being so different from one another ? How could the stuff have seperated itself out to make planets that are so different from one another in composition if they were all created in the same area of space from the same initial stuff ? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:15 - ID#240248)
Kapex, Question?
The Euro is born with about 4.2 trillion in debt. This represents about 75% of the combined GDP's of the member states.

A little top heavy for an IPO, don't you think???


(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:16 - ID#285430)
Envy (Science Question)
The first stars in the universe did not create a large number of
heavy atoms like gold, they turned hydrogen and helium into the
lighter atoms like carbon and oxygen. The production of these
elements were created in well understood proportions. However, the
second generation stars have fused some of those larger atoms together
to create still heavier atoms... like GOLD!

So the point is, not every star puts out elements in the same
proportion, partially due to their different sized but also due to
what materials they got to start with. So different planets are
made up of different stuff.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:21 - ID#227238)
Apparently stuff is not uniformly distributed in the universe. Even as it is not here on earth. And probably on other spheres, as well. ......
Take my social planetoid for example, it would benefit greatly should wealth be more evenly distributed. But alas, it is not. .... A problem ROR is working on, no doubt.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:33 - ID#219363)
Science Question
I see what you guys are saying about stuff not being evenly distributed, and I can kinda understand that some star might have died off in a way that left a bunch more iron in one part of space than, say, oxygen or something else. That's kinda what I'm asking then, why does earth have a bunch of one thing in it while mars has a bunch of other stuff ? Why does Jupiter's moon Europa have a bunch of water ( H and O ) while one of the other moon's doesn't have the same stuff. I thought I learned in school that all the planets were created right here next to the sun, kinda close to where they are now, and they didn't come from somewhere else far away from where they are right now. But if that's true, it seems like it would all be a lot more uniform than it is to me. Maybe some big water meteor came crashing into Europa or something and missed all the other moons *grin*. Could it be that the planets didn't form in the same area of space, that they came from somewhere really far away and just happened to end up here in these orbits on their trip through the darkness ?

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:47 - ID#34883)
Kapex 23:04
"*Not so anomalous is the economic long wave of debt creation and repudiation commonly called the
"Kondratieff Cycle. It takes 50-60 years of economic expansion to accumulate enough excesses in debt
creation to get to the point at which borrowers can no longer service that debt and it is defaulted upon."

the author makes a good analogy, although the above quote is bs...How do you make objective time parameters studying unpredictable human beings that possess potential discovery, and expotential wealth creation capabilities?, among other things that make these type of empirical postulates bunkum. IMO.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:49 - ID#350194)
Close To Midnight.
THE Mooney ( My Anticipation Indicator )
My Anticipation Indicator is starting to rise. And I feel as if I should go fly a kite to calm my feeble brain.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:49 - ID#285430)
Envy (Science Question)
The planets around our sun were formed from other suns which went
nova. Pieces of dead star drift through space until they take
orbit around a sun. Even if all the planets came from the same
star, it still would not be surprising to see some elements group
together, so that one planet is gas ( where the gasses collected )
and other planets are solid ( where the solids collected ) . But
I think it's more likely our 9 planets come from a number of
different stars and therefore this effect of difference might even
be more exaggerated.

This is one of the things that Stepehen Hawking mentioned in his
bestseller, "Brief History of Time." He thought that the universe
was extremely smooth, the stuff in it was very regularly distributed.
This is something that he thought was an amazing coincidence, an
"anthropic coincidence," in other words while it is unlikely, we
should expect to see it that way because only in a smooth universe
could life exist as we know it.

(Fri Dec 11 1998 23:52 - ID#285430)
Envy (Science)
To try to keep this conversation in the ballpark let me add that
gold is inherently rare. It's more unstable within a star than say
lead or iron, and therefore we should expect to see it's rarity
throughout the universe. The chances of a solid gold asteroid
hitting earth are pretty slim... : )