Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

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(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:01 - ID#219363)
Good company indeed. As for the marketing seeing bad things in the next 60 days, the transports seem to agree with you, as do I. The transports are in a bear now and have not come close to reaching previous highs. Check it out: graph of DJIA vs. transports, and it ain't good.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:05 - ID#33184)
Today, in 1911, the South Pole was reached for the first time

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:05 - ID#344326)
I agree with you. It does feel like this is the start of the next leg down. The world financial system was at the edge of a cliff only a few months ago and now people think everything is OK?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:07 - ID#20359)
crossbow, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...just saw your post as I was leaving...I
see too many items...any of which could spark fear in the financial markets...while Americans may feel that the market will not drop due to impeachment proceedings...people in other countries are that this thing is going to be voted on this coming week it will set into the American mindset...Media hype about threats on US installations in the ME and even a warning of terrorist actions which may take place on American soil coupled with the never ending Iraq saga and rumblings from N. Korea combine to create uneasy feelings in the market place...

The stock market in the US is sick...very sick but everyone is acting as if it is healthy and taking a breather...the EURO is starting to make noise and comes online next month...

The Giants beat the Broncos...there is a tear in the fabric of reality...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:11 - ID#262242)
Asian markets
yahoo does not have the Asian markets up tonight, they are stuck on Friday. Anybody know of another url????

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:12 - ID#342397)
Tolerant1, I agree with your assessment. G'nite and
a G & P to ya.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:17 - ID#413109)
Hey Bill from Oregon

This is a little limited and not the asian markets you would
like, but it's the first thing that came to mind to help you out.

Have a good one and give love.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:18 - ID#219363)
Equity Markets
I wish they'd let me on CNBC one day when everone was watching, just so I could hold up this one chart. Just once I'd like to point to this chart and speak my mind about it, the equity markets would surely crash that very day *grin*. It's so OBVIOUS that we're living on a bubble, ANYONE who has seen this chart ( and I have showed a few people ) are amazed and start asking why they've never seen it before. I don't know why they haven't seen it, it's just a chart of the last decade or so on the stock market, it's available to anyone. Some day sentiment is going to change on the equity markets, and that'll be the end of the party. One day, the majority of people are going to be trading and they're going to say "Nope, I don't want to pay 130 for Microsoft, I'll bid 40, take it or leave it", and that'll be the end. Everyone who is holding paper equities that day will either sell them for 1/2 off or hold the paper and be happy with it. That's all it takes for the price of equities to drop, buyers just have to be unwilling to buy them. The only reason the stock market goes up is that there are buyers willing to pay the asking price, and the only reason they're willing to do that right now is that they believe someone will bid more tomorrow than they paid today.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:19 - ID#344326)
Bill in Oregon...
I noticed YAHOO also. Try this link....By the way, what part of Oregon are you in? I've got a good friend in John Day. ( Originally a gold mining town )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:20 - ID#257312)
Just Back From A Christmas Party

Gave away some Gold and had a few gulps and puffs. My coworkers were impressed with the substantiality of the Gold Mountie.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:26 - ID#343259)

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:30 - ID#219363)
Clinton Statement Dismays GOPers
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Undecided Republicans expressed dismay Sunday over President Clinton's insistence that he did not commit perjury. "I think the president hurt himself very clearly," Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio said as focus shifted to this week's full House vote on impeachment. That vote, on four articles of impeachment approved by the House Judiciary Committee, could come on Thursday. White House Chief of Staff John Podesta said at the moment "things are a little bit up for grabs." Rep. Henry Hyde of Illinois, the Judiciary Committee chairman who will lead the GOP effort to impeach Clinton on the floor this week, said Clinton "could really be heroic ... would be the savior of his party" if he resigned.
Posted because it could affect the metals.

Steve in TO
(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:35 - ID#287337)
Nick - concerning Ronald Reagan in his . . .
governor days- what is a PTB?

- Steve

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:36 - ID#257312)

While you're here, would like to ask a question. On a 1 to 10 scale, how bad will y2k be, with 1 being zero effect and 10 being TEOTWAWKI ( The End Of The World As We Know It ) ? My guess is 9.8.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:43 - ID#262242)
Asian markets
Thanks guys for the response, preciateit. I know you were lurking Reify, can always count on you, thanks.
Thanks Crazy times, I live in southern Oregon not far from the Calif. border. I have been to John Day, nice country but to cold for me.
Boy, the net is slow tonight. ( or maybe its my server )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:51 - ID#255284)
Remember your 9.8 score in 12 months. I wonder how you'll score TEOTWAWKI then.

For me, I say 3.1

I shall be most upset if kitco ain't around then, but, I suspect problems will be localised. Hard to imagine any effect in village India, or a hundred cultures that are relatively untouched by W technology.

I just would not want to be in one of the localities where the infrastructure is frail and the people take up arms in anger or hunger.

Of course, AUckland has already shown the world how fragile is a modern city. 100 city blocks without power for weeks. Fortunately, few live in our city centres..


But, then again, most of us have read extrapops, human nature hasn't changed for a long, long time.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:53 - ID#343259)
Well, I haven't changed my outlook much. I'm not sure if a 1 to 10 scale is appropriate, given the multi-dimensionality of the problem. Here's how I see it.

1 ) Folks haven't seen this kind of everywhere-at-once disaster, and really don't know what to expect.

2 ) Computer people are not necessarily great at predicting social events. Their expertise is in understanding how machines with limited vocabularies, and unambiguous language structures logically operate. Forced to comment on society, it seems they usually do worse than the average person.

3 ) Personally, I have not viscerally felt "oooohhhhh its gonna be REEEEEEllly bad", so, emotionally, I guess, I'm not feeling it as TEOTWAWKI, for whatever reason.

4 ) Intellectually, however, is a different story. Having spent hours debugging a "stupid comma in the wrong place", and having a program just not work no matter how loud I screamed at it, for lack of a single comma, I can well extrapolate the situation, say, in the North Sea Oil Platforms, where, I've heard ( please check this out for your self ) that there are hundreds, if not thousands of chips 800 feet or more in the water which will not be tested, and if all it takes is one failure to cause a problem that can't be fixed, then I can see Europe in a deep freeze in 2000 when the 30 - 60 day inventory runs out.

So, personally, I am preparing for 3 months of food and water, and 1 year of "other stuff" toiletries, etc.; Just because of supply problems.

I figure that the cost of preparing is not much more than the cost that WILL be expended anyway over that time period, and, being an ex boy-scout, have always been more comfortable in "being Prepared".

I've learned one thing about my intellect and my emotion though, is that I can trust neither one to give me the sense of what will happen. Right now, I am split, I don't see the intellect becoming less concerned, I would predict it becomes more concerned. As to the emotion, well, we'll just have to wait and see. Probably the first real "panic" scenario will have an effect, but, I try not to predict my emotions with my intellect, I'm usually wrong!

I'm not sure this helps but it is nonetheless how I think, and how I feel.


(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:53 - ID#257312)
Asian Markets

What the heck are they doing tonight? Yahoo is stuck on December 11.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:56 - ID#386245)
Steve in TO
PTB= Powers That Be.
You'll have to use your imagination from there. cheers, N.

Steve in TO
(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:57 - ID#287337)
Envy - There's been some discussion tonight . . .
about the Clinton impeachment causing a market decline, or even a crash. This is one theme the Democrats are using to pressure weak-kneed Republicans into voting against impeachment.

In fact, it's the other way 'round. People in the US have a naive belief that the president is responsible for the state of the economy. When the economy is up, they support him 100% and are even willing to overlook criminal behavior such as perjury & obstruction of justice- they figure "don't rock the boat." After all, since the president is responsible for the prospertity, getting rid of him might bring the party to an end.

When the economy tanks, though, look out. The public vents its fury on the pres., because, after all, he's responsible for the state of the economy, and look how he messed it up.

Clinton is well aware of this. After all- his campaign theme in '92 was "It's the economy, stupid."

He also surely knows that Nixon was drummed out of office after the great recession of the '70s began. Exactly like Clinton, Nixon was popular during his first term, and he won his second election with a landslide, even though his wrongdoing had been publicized by the media prior to the election. He seemed to be untouchable during his second term. The tide turned against Nixon only after the economy began to tank, and the US entered a severe recession.

Anericans vote their wallets, and Clinton knows what happened to Nixon. He will do everything in his power to keep the economy vibrant- including PPT activities and making creative use of executive slush funds like the Currency Stabiliation Fund.

You should see some very strange goings-on, at least until Clinton either is impeached, or he ends up beating the rap . . .

- Steve

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:58 - ID#189232)
Interesting. That's pretty close to what I'm doing - 3 months
of food currently, bicycling distance from work, enough cash
on hand to last at *least* 3 months, too.

I plan to bolster this, perhaps 50% or so, after the 1st
quarter of next year, depending on what happens during the
Jan of 99.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 00:59 - ID#33184)
The US almost gets another state ...
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico ( AFX ) - Puerto Rican voters yesterday rejected a
referendum option to become the 51st U.S. state, according to official returns.
With 97.7 pct of the vote counted, 50.6 pct of Puerto Ricans chose "none of the above" on the ballots, an option advocated by the opposition Popular Democratic Party, which favors maintaining the status quo of a commonwealth.
The campaign to turn the island into a state, fronted by Governor Pedro
Rossello, trailed in a close second with 46.5 pct.

Steve in TO
(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:00 - ID#287337)
Nick - thanks for the acronym update.
FBI director Hoover used to refer to his office as the SOG ( Seat Of Government ) in the old days. It has been contended by numerous people that there exists a "Shadow Government" in the US

- Steve

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:01 - ID#386245)
I fluctuate between 4 and 9.5. On my 9.5 days I buy an extra carton of tuna and a couple of 10 kg bags of rice. If I ever get to 9.8 I'll be investing in other heavy metals. Can't imagine that scenario down here.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:04 - ID#386245)
Steve in To
Hoover DID run the US for quite some time. That is when he wasn't playing dress-up. BBL.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:06 - ID#33184)
Elsewhere on the net - Clinton, impeachment and the economy
President Clinton's actions were reckless and stupid but not worthy of impeachment. Here is why.

Impeachment overturns the sacred will of the people as expressed in elections. This process should be reserved only for the most extreme circumstances in order to avoid enduring damage to the balance of power between our legislative and executive branches. After having none of our first 35 presidents leave office in this way, Clinton would be the second of our last six to depart in disgrace. The poor judgment that Clinton showed in carrying on an affair with a White House intern suggests that he has an addiction in this area, but there is no parallel evidence of poor judgment repeated in his conduct as president.

He has shown leadership, courage, and plenty of hard work on such diverse issues as budget reduction, gun control, and NAFTA. His appointments by and large served our country well. Along with James Baker, Robert Rubin is arguably the best postwar Treasury secretary. I am convinced that the economy has done better under President Clinton and a Republican-controlled Congress than it would have under any other mix of government.
This good performance is already threatened by unstable economies abroad and would be further jeopardized by a drawn-out impeachment drama. It is no coincidence that the deepest and second-longest bear market on Wall Street since the 1930's occurred in 1973-74. Morality can be measured in degrees. Not to condone the president's behavior, but the acceptance of slavery upon which this nation was founded and of segregated schooling into the 1950's constitute a much higher level of immorality than a consensual adulterous affair. Washington, Jefferson, Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Kennedy all had other women.

What makes Clinton's situation unique is that he lied to keep his affair secret. The others never had to do this. There is an element of entrapment in the process that brought Clinton to this juncture. The laws governing the use of special prosecutors appear out of control. Ken Starr has conducted an expensive and open-ended four-year investigation, essentially waiting for that one break to nail the president. His opening came in the form of taped conversations between Tripp and Lewinsky recorded illegally under Maryland law. Starr's report comes up empty in all the areas that he investigated previously, and the contrast between the rush-to-judgment confirmation of Clarence Thomas's supreme court appointment and the take-all-the-time-you-want approach with Starr's investigation gives one the impression that politics have indeed played a big role in the current mess.

The president's adversaries have given him one final opportunity to avoid impeachment, but a public admission to lying is tantamount to a request to forego his fifth amendment rights against self-incrimination. The choice of either that or submitting to a process that does not fit the crime is no choice at all. It is not difficult to understand why Clinton initially denied his liaison with Lewinsky even in sworn testimony. In carrying out the duties of the highest office "to the best of my abilities", a president is continually faced with dilemmas. Wartime presidents often conceal information - for example, Roosevelt's knowledge about the Holocaust - for what they perceive as the greater national interest. Clinton's affair with Lewinsky was not a crime, but revealing an affair already terminated represented a huge risk to the credibility of his presidency and could have destroyed the first family. As members of the House of Representatives and United States Senate, you now face a difficult choice, too. Although intrinsically a political process, impeachment shouldn't become an avenue for the majority party of Congress to kick out a sitting president of the other party. To do this in the face of voter feedback that is heavily opposed to such a course of action would invite a full-blown constitutional crisis.

In my view, a careful weighing of all the circumstances and allegations against the President does not justify taking this thing to a full impeachment trial. The crimes are not high enough and did not victimize the nation. And the risks of undermining the economy and foreign policy now, plus the future strength of the Presidency, are great.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:08 - ID#34883)
Is the ASX ( All Mining Index ) where you're generally going to find the gold & silver shares there in Aussie land? And if so, have you followed any correlation with the ASX to the XAU as a leading indicator?

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:08 - ID#33184)
Nikkei 225 closes 294.02 points lower at 14111.62

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:14 - ID#319242)
1. Impeachment doesn't remove anyone from anything.
2. The Senate will not remove Slick with 67 votes required in a trial.
3. It will be done so fast, the economy won't even notice.
4. The dollar will be weakened more and gold may rally.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:42 - ID#285430)
Cage Rattler
"The judgment that Clinton showed in carrying on an affair with a White
House intern suggests that he has an addiction in this area, but there is
no parallel evidence of poor judgment repeated in his conduct as

Quite untrue.

Consider the case of a high ranking general who "accidentally" leaves
top secret documents at a restaurant. Or consider a general who
has a secret affair with a communist spy and grants her a security
clearance to facilitate their trysts.

In both of those cases, the high ranking general would surely be
stripped of his honors, and possibly tried for treason. These guys
don't get to be 3 star, 4 star, etc. generals for going around granting
security passes to any girl who yanks their johnson.

So here is Clinton, granting a security pass to Lewinsky which very
few people have the priviledge of owning. Frankly, I'm still not
convinced that Lewisnky isn't a Mossad agent.

Now keep in mind, everybody who is in a position which would be valuable
to military intelligence will inevitably receive an offer one day to
become a spy. That's how they recruit spies! They don't train some
girl to pursue a life that would bring her into the White House--that's
preposterous. They find somebody already there, and then butter her

Then there is the issue of the phone calls. The sex-calls, issued
on the White House telephone. Clinton is well aware that despite
our best efforts, enemies of the United States have consistantly
attempted to tap into White House lines and during periods they
were even successful. Therefore, he leaves himself wide open to
blackmail by giving the enemy ammunition.

In short, Clinton might very well be guilty of treason for placing
national security at risk.

God save this Republic.


(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:44 - ID#371380)
Cage Rattler
Clintons poor judgement. I heard a republican congressman state it perfect when he said the most troubling thing was Clintons willingness to sacrifice his subbordinates including Betty Currie and his cabinet members for his own personal cover up. Is this the moral authority one would expect from the commander in chief who, with the stroke of a pen, can send our sons and daughters into harms way?

Then there is the whole Loral mess whereby he transferred technology oversight from the State department to the commerce department over the objections of the DoD.

Oh, lets not forget the 900 FBI files which somehow ended up in the whitehouse. Amazingly, they were all republican files.

Did he inhale? Did he get a draft notice? Did he take illegal campaign contributions from the Chinese military? Did he obstruct the campaign finance investigations through illegal delaying tactics?

Yeah, his lack of moral conviction ends with his private life and has no bearing on his presidential abilities. Right!

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:49 - ID#189232)
Clinton - Create A Criminal Government
Clinton has done irreparable damage to our country. Check out
the latest. Why isn't Congress stopping it?

End Run Around the Constitution
April 9, 1998
December 13, 1998 John Fund
Not for commercial use. Solely to be fairly used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.

End Run Around the Constitution
by John H. Fund
April 9, 1998 Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd ( WV ) , a former majority leader, and GOP Sen. Fred Thompson ( TN ) do not often agree. But they both argue that the Clinton administration is doing an unconstitutional end run around the Senate's duty to "advise and consent" on appointments.
An astonishing 59 of the 320 executive-branch posts that require Senate confirmation are being filled in violation of the Vacancies Act. In the Commerce Department, nearly a third of top jobholders are in violation.
Vacancy vacuum

Senators Thompson
and Byrd
The two senators are sponsors of a bill that would enforce the law's 120-day limit on how long an acting official can perform duties without a permanent appointment being made. Without a clear crackdown by Congress, Thompson says we could have "an entire government filled with temporary appointments, which could last for an entire administration." A president could then, in theory, appoint extremist policy-makers who could never be confirmed to their jobs and simply allow them to exercise power on an acting basis.
A Congressional Research Service memo last year concluded that the Clinton White House's claim, for example, that the Justice Department was exempt from the Vacancies Act was untenable. CRS found that the acting heads of both the criminal division and the Office of Legal Counsel were holding their jobs in violation of the law. Since then, an appointment has been at OCS but the top job in the criminal division now has been vacant since Aug. 31, 1995 -- a mind-boggling 942 days with no end in sight.
This vacuum has had serious effects on the ongoing probe of 1996 campaign-finance violations. John Keeney, the acting head of the criminal division, has had to recuse himself because his son is a lawyer for Democratic fund-raiser John Huang. That means Lee Radek, head of the public integrity section and a staunch opponent of the independent counsel law, directly briefs Attorney General Janet Reno on whether or not the law should be triggered. Radek is said to be a major reason Reno has refused to call for an outside investigation despite staggering evidence of Justice's conflict of interest in pursuing its own probe.
Constitution under siege
Clinton aides privately dismiss the Vacancies Act as burdensome, an obscure law passed in 1868. That is reminiscent of the argument they made that Vice President Al Gore was not really covered by the 1882 Pendleton Act barring fund raising in federal buildings because the law was old and unwieldy. In fact, it was because presidents such as Richard Nixon failed to observe the original Vacancies Act that Congress updated and strengthened it as recently as 1988.
The Constitution makes clear that all top federal officials must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. An exception was made for a time when travel was much more inconvenient. A president can make a "recess" appointment if Congress has left town and the appointment lasts until the end of the next session. The Clinton White House has abused both recess appointments and the Vacancies Act.
Byrd's patience with this cavalier behavior snapped last December when the Senate Judiciary Committee failed to confirm Bill Lann Lee as assistant attorney general for civil rights. Clinton promptly named Lee as acting head for civil rights and since then has shown no signs of naming a permanent appointee subject to confirmation. Byrd says Lee's continued service after his first 120 days in office are up next month will be in "defiance of the plain language of the Vacancies Act." He argues that if Congress allows a virtual government of temporary appointees to grow, the Constitution itself will be "under siege."
Tightening the rules for 'temporary' appointees
Byrd has filed legislation to put teeth into the Vacancies Act. It would clearly state, for the first time, that it supersedes all other provisions of law. Any temporary appointee serving in violation of the statute would have their pay and benefits halted. The principle here is that any officials placed in a position of power outside legal channels should have no more authority to make policy than citizens on the street. Their actions could be challenged in court and ruled invalid.
Byrd and Thompson say it is such applications of the rule of law that separate this republic from banana republics where executives often feel free to make up the rules as they go. It is time to tell the Clinton administration to end "home alone" government and stay within the parameters of the law.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 01:56 - ID#257312)
aurator. CompGeek, Nick@C

G's & P's all around the table gentlemen.
CompGeek 00:53-- Thanks for reply. Yes, the folks working on y2k remediation have no better insight on its fallout than the average citizen. It's just that the geeks have thought about the problem. Especially liked #3 and #4 of the 00:53 post. aurator-- I think you are thinking all this y2k stuff is a bit nutty, I think. I think it's the real McCoy. What do you think? Nick@C-- Hey, if I gave you my phone number and reversed the charges to my number, would you like to chat for about 5 minutes?

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:01 - ID#33184)
Dollar down another yen ...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:04 - ID#240155)

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:06 - ID#386245)
Auric--send telephone number by email. Not to worry about reversing. I'll call.

Mole--The XGO is the gold share index. It closed down 4.1% today. Even worse than the all mining. Not sure if some shares are in both, but will check.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:08 - ID#219363)
Apple Crop Almost Record This Year
YAKIMA, Wash. ( AP ) -- U.S. apple growers produced the second-largest crop on record in 1998, yet it hardly turned out to be a banner year, the director of the industry's national trade organization says. "Never before have we been confronted with so many challenges at one time," Kraig Naasz, president of the U.S. Apple Association, said last week. The trade and production issues that made 1998 difficult could continue to be problems in coming years, Naasz said after a meeting of the Washington Apple Commission here. "I look at this year as an opportunity -- an opportunity for our industry to get ahead of schedule for the new millennium" by addressing troublesome issues now, he said. "One of the most critical challenges will be to invite our consumers here and around the world to eat more apples."
It's just a bad year to be growing, mining or making stuff.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:17 - ID#257312)
Getting Ready To Talk To A Kitcoite From Down Under
Sure hope I can understand that accent.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:19 - ID#386245)
Here is the XGO--Aussie gold index chart c/o Bill Buckler. You can compare it with the all Ords ( also on his chart list ) or with the XAU. Cheers, Nick.

PS- today down 4.1% so looks dismal. Sure glad I sold when gold couldn't get over 300. Now VERY tempted by the likes of Lihir etc. but probably more downside first.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:20 - ID#255284)
The most vulnerable and important of the 2oth Century computer-dependent resources is electricity. Provided you can hook up the grid, you'll be OK. I have no idea of the complexity of the US 'tricity reticulation. Down here, it'll be summer, barbQ, summer holidays, our grid was put together as one unit, although it is being sold off now because of a mistaken view of laissez-faire capitalism. What was the question?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:21 - ID#255284)
Thanks for reminding me. It's time I spoke to Teddo again....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:21 - ID#219363)
World Markets
Looks like we've accelerated a little and seem to be back in decline mode, will it turn around again ? Will it turn around before the Nikkei drops back below support at around 13000 ? Who can say. I talked to a gentleman this evening is getting along in age and wants to retire, but he wanted a certain amount of money first so he can convince his wife to take it easy. Where is his money ? You betcha, right there in the equity markets, all of it. Talked to a gentleman just the other day who had lost 100K$US of his retirement money during the summer and hasn't gotten even half of it back. Talked to another guy who said that a woman he knows decided not to make the purchases she was going to make this Christmas because of the money she lost, why ? She's lost a lot of her retirement money and needs to cut back on spending. The pieces are on the board and the game has been played but nobody realizes they've already lost.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:23 - ID#40477)
rhody..the left will never face problems head-on
When economy is slow, left says spend, spend, spend to "kickstart" the economy. When things are good, spend even more ( what they fail to say is the money spent is all BORROWED ) . Ontario can't kickstart it's own economy if world economies are slow, especially USA. Pushing on a string. Bob Rae almost DOUBLED Ontario debt from 45 bil to 90 bil in ONE TERM. Even he saw the troubling situation we are in and tried the "social contract" thing with the public sector unions. They tore it up on national television. IMHO never mind Quebec separation. If Ontario falls, Canada falls. Harris is trying to put an end to the MUGGING going on. I'm private sector and I'm tired of so many people with their hands in my pockets. What will the left do when the last multi-national pulls out? Raise taxes ( more muggings ) or borrow more ( mug my kids ) . Harris wants to put an end to the spending deficits and make it law. I say good thing. Namaste! We can agree to disagree.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:38 - ID#219363)
Japanese Stocks Close Lower
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japanese stocks fell Monday on concern about the health of the banking system after the nationalization of a major lender and a central bank report that business sentiment has deteriorated. The dollar fell against the yen. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average shed 294.02 points, or 2.04 percent, to close at 14,111.62 for a third straight day of losses. On Friday, the average fell 402.16 points, or 2.72 percent. The dollar bought 116.12 yen in mid-afternoon trading, down 1.16 yen from late Friday in Tokyo but above its late New York level of 116.42 yen Friday. Led down by bank shares, Japanese stocks slid amid rekindled fears of instability in the bad debt-ridden banking system after the government took over ailing lender Nippon Credit Bank Ltd. on Sunday, traders said.
Btw, I'd have to give y2k about a 1.1 on the 1-10 scale.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:42 - ID#255284)
Through the wonders of telecommunications, I've just spoken with Auric, who was on ANOTHER line talking to Nick@C.

Now we're gonna try a three way ANZUS link.......

Mike K
(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:43 - ID#153290)
Cage Rattler --- True to your name,
you certainly rattled my cage. Impeachment does not overturn the sacred will of the people. Bill Clinton received less than 43% of the votes cast in both of his presidential wins. Since something less than 55% of the eligible voters did vote, he received votes from something less than 25% of the electorate. Additionally, he was elected to some degree because the voters felt that Algore would be an acceptable replacement if Clinton were unable to continue. It looks like he might have a shot, just as the sacred will of the people would intend.
You mention extreme circumstances, don't you think it extreme that the chief law enforcment official of the nation has chosen to break laws inorder to extricate himself from a difficult situation? Notice I said difficult, not criminal. He broke the law just to save himself grief. He broke the law repeatedly to save his image, not to save the country, not to save lives --- to save his own butt.
He and his sycophants advocate 2 rules of law, one for the ruling class ( Friends of Bill ) and one for the rest of us. Do you remember when there were different laws for black and white Americans in the south? Would you like to be treated today as the blacks were treated then? That's what 2 rules of law will get you. I am certain that blacks will not be in favor of what you are accepting. ( Nor will anyone except the FOB's. )
He took a solemn oath before God and the people of this country, to preserve, uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. He broke that oath to satisfy his own pleasures. He kept international leaders waiting while a young employee serviced his sexual needs. He was on the phone discussing sending American soldiers into life threatening situations while this young girl was giving him sexual pleasure that might distract a lesser man. No, our president can get head while promising our sons the chance to have theirs shot off! What a leader.
You mention "no parallel evidence of poor judgement" ... are you kidding me? What about, Whitewater, Filegate, Vince Foster, Chinagate, tainted blood from Arkansas to Canada, bombing a pharmaceutical plant in a Wag the Dog incident ( even Janet Reno said the evidence was too weak to bomb them - and she's the one who incinerated innocent American women and children in Waco ) Dolly Kyle Browning, Paula Jones, Jennifer Flowers and others? Where have you been?
Give me an example of leadership that he has shown? He runs his policy by voter polls, that's why he changes direction so many times. Ask the other democrats in Congress and the Senate if the man can be trusted. There has never benn as much ambivelence between members of the same party. Look at his issues, gays in the military - as soon as that proved a testy subject he cut the gays and ran - ask them. How about his healthcare plan? It was his wife's, with meetings convened illegally and a socialist policy that would put physicians in jail for non-conformance. How hard did he support that? He left his wife to twist in the wind on that one.
Budget reduction? Are you kidding me? Check the real numbers, the deficit is growing! It's a shell game using Social Security funds and funds tagged for airport systems improvement to make the numbers. Gun control??? Do you know which states have the steepest declines in violent crime? Texas, Florida, Arizona and New Mexico. Do you know what these states have in common? They are all concealed carry or non concealed carry states. That means the good guys have guns too! Evidently, the bad guys don't like this because crime has gone down! And NAFTA? Oh please, look at our trade deficit with Mexico - it has exploded. American jobs went south.
You say "Starr's report comes up empty in all the areas that he investigated previously" - listen carefully to the testimony, the investigations are still active. No the president hasn't been indicted, but until the IC closes shop, I wouldn't assume anything. Bear in mind that Mr. Starr has 11 convictions from our 43 million $'s so far. Do you know how many Mr. Walsh got investigating the Reagan administration? NONE! Not that they were clean, because I think Ollie North was a crook, but Walsh spent far more than Starr and got nothing.
You say "To do this in the face of voter feedback that is heavily opposed to such a course of action would invite a full-blown constitutional crisis" - where do get this? A constitutional crisis? Exactly how? You know there are mechanisms built into the impeachment process to provide for an orderly transition. Or are you suggesting that 2/3 of our states will conduct a vote for a constitutional referendum ( I believe that's the requirement ) , and open one of the greatest governing documents of all time to revision?
You also say, "The crimes are not high enough and did not victimize the nation". Would you prefer that he rob a 7-11 or maybe murder someone? The crimes of this president will be realized by history to be grave and heinous. He is the worst president in the history of this country.

I was taught ( and have taught my children ) that you lead by example. Is this the man you want to follow? Is this the man you will teach your children to emulate? If not, then stop accepting lawlessness from our leaders, this country and those who serve ( d ) it deserve better.

PS. Please excuse my tone if I was edgy, it's not personal. I've read your posts before and enjoyed them. I feel strongly that this man is destroying the moral fabric of this country ( he's not the only one ) and we don't have enough brains or guts to care.
Go gold! Please.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:52 - ID#255284)
Mike/ Cage Rattler/ Envy and All merkans

You may be suprised how little importance is placed on the news of your President's pecadillos here. Having read far more than I'd care to on the subject, I do share with you a general lamentation that we may be witnessing the final scenes of the great American Republic.
If the FEMA take control; May Ludd have mercy on you all.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 02:55 - ID#33184)
Mike K - Clinton post was copied off the net - not necessarily my views

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:00 - ID#33184)
South Africans, myself included, hardly ever see Clinton in the news. The only reason why I keep track of him, etc. is because of his potential effect on the forex markets ( where I spend some time ) which are certainly affected by his actions.

Mike K
(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:08 - ID#153290)
Cage Rattler --- Oh good!
Do I have to retract my rant now?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:08 - ID#219363)
I wouldn't worry too aweful much about FEMA and 'merkins. You hear a lot of stories about the drug war and this and that, about how 'merkins are losing their privacy, etc, etc. There was a law passed recently that takes away protection for "guests" in your home when the police folk think that there are drugs involved, or that your guest has done something wrong, I think it was to cut down on folks just running in off the street to get away from police folk. Anyway, 'merkans have a long tradition of being free folk, and we can take care of ourselves in the long run. I heard a story that went something like: Police break into a democrat's house looking for drugs and the democrat starts whining about how she voted for the drug war because it helps children and eventually calls her lawyer. Then the police guy breaks into a republican's house and start looking for drugs and the republican starts whining about how he pays taxes and helped build new prisons then calls his lawyer. Then the police guy ends up laying on the front porch of a civil libertarian's house in his own blood and he starts explaining to the libertarian that it's his right to search the house, and the libertarian suggests that the police guy call his lawyer. 'Merikan's aren't to be fooled with when the chips are down, entirely too much civil libertarian teaching in their heads, and too many violent tendencies to back it up. 'Merikan's have a proud tradition of ignoring their government until it starts to bother them, then firing everyone and starting back up with a new lot. Your typical 'merkin will let the gov'ment do whatever it wants until what it wants starts to get on people's nerves.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:23 - ID#255284)
talking live with aurator!

Yeee Haaaaa

(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:28 - ID#386245)
Have just spent 45 minutes...
...on the phone with Auric. What a fantastic guy. Hey, you Yanks may be lousy golfers, but are otherwise OK. We talked a lot about GOLD and Y2K. I am an optomist compared to my Merkan mate. What are you guys worried about?? I mean, on Jan 1st, 2000, the lights will go out for 5 minutes and then everything will be as usual. And pigs can fly!!

G'day Auric. Good chatting with yer mate!!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 03:46 - ID#386245)
Watching on tv
a story about the Canadian ice storm. Total power failure in the dead of winter. Does history repeat?? Glad it will be mid-summer here in Jan. 2000!!!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:04 - ID#255284)
........~~~~~~~Hands across the water......~~~~~~~~...........
Okee just finished talking to Auric on the other side of the woild. {Hey, lefty, Merka really exists}
He said you're gonna phone?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:14 - ID#185448)
morn, ya lucky antipodeans! Youve got that bl**** monday already behind you.

On topic:
Ever took a close look to your Pandas? No matter, if Au or Ag, look out for those teenyweeny little excentric cracks in the surface.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:23 - ID#257312)

Just had two fantastic conversations with a couple of Kitco posters. It was like talking to old friends. Could understand Nick@C pretty well. Had to have aurator repeat a few things at first until I got used to his accent. Would recommend you all talk to each other by phone on occasion.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:32 - ID#255284)
It's a sweet gold world.
Yee ha
speaking to nick@C now

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:32 - ID#386245)
talking to auracious as i type.trying to typen as i speak. here goes.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:37 - ID#185448)
Red ears R us
My best regards to aurator.
My best regards to Nick.

Still gnawling on "Put a shrimp on the Barbie"

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:45 - ID#257312)
Fred@Austria--G'day Mate!

Hoping you find lots of Gold on your walkabouts in the outback!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:47 - ID#26793)
London morning currency news and comment

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:52 - ID#26793)
Getchell Gold and Placer Dome to merge

John Disney
(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:56 - ID#24135)
tell it like it is ...
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
December 14, 1998

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Is Here: It Won't Get Better than This

Bill Clinton arrived in Israel on Saturday. His avowed mission:
keeping the Middle East peace process on track. As always, this
is going to be hard to do. Both the Israelis and Palestinians
are deeply split, and neither side has the ability to implement
fully the agreements they have made. It is not only that the two
sides lack a common vision of the peace arrangements they are
working toward. The real problem is that no one, on either side,
has a clear vision of what they would want to see happen. The
Israeli vision of peace is one in which the Palestinians accept
permanent domination by Israel. The Palestinian vision is one in
which Israel disappears. Each side is using the peace process
as a means for implementing their core vision.

There are of course those on both sides who genuinely want a real
Palestinian-Israeli accommodation. Their problem is three-fold.
First, the peace advocates fail consistently to put forth a
coherent institutional framework for peace. Beyond expressing a
desire from genuine peace, they find it difficult to specify what
they mean by peace. Second, when there are some specific
proposals put forward, they are rarely shared by counterparts on
the other side. When Israeli peace advocates meet Palestinian
peace advocates, and concrete proposals are on the table, there
is precious little overlap between the proposals. Finally, when
there is overlap, neither side is able to deliver anything
resembling a stable majority for a final agreement.

This is what went wrong with the Oslo Accords. Neither the
Israeli nor Palestinian teams had a clear vision of what peace
would look like. They couldn't really define their areas of
agreement with any precision. The Israeli and Palestinian
negotiators were more concerned with their hard-line compatriots'
reactions than with each other's. They therefore avoided
defining the real issues, let alone solving them. The result was
an agreement that could not withstand the political process on
either side.

One central problem is the demand by the Palestinians for the
creation of a Palestinian state in which Palestinians govern
Palestinians. The Israelis will not concede this point. There
is the very real fear that a truly autonomous Palestinian state
would become a base not only for terrorism against Israel, but
also, over time, a spring board for conventional military
operations against Israel's narrow territorial waist. For the
Israelis, direct control of the West Bank is the only guarantee
of the security of the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem corridor and the
heartland of Israel proper. They are not going to jeopardize the
physical security of these lands, including Tel Aviv, by placing
them within the artillery range of a Palestinian military
commanded by Yasir Arafat and his unknown successors. Moreover,
the Israelis know perfectly well that, regardless of what pledges
are made, any Palestinian leader who was to abandon the demand
for statehood would immediately lose all moral authority. Even
if Arafat were to abandon the demand for statehood in writing,
the Israelis would not believe him, nor believe that the
Palestinians would stand by the agreement.

The other central problem is the demand by the Israelis that the
Palestinians renounce their commitment for the destruction of
Israel, made in the Palestinian National Charter. The
Palestinian National Council are scheduled to vote on a decision
to renounce this commitment, yet even if it is struck from the
charter, the Israelis will question whether or not the
Palestinians mean what they say. The parallel Israeli demand is
that, having abandoned the desire to destroy Israel, the
Palestine National Authority cooperate with Israeli security
forces in shutting down anti-Israeli terror operations by groups
like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Palestinians cannot really
concede these points. First, it would create asymmetrical
negotiations in which the existence of an Israeli state is given,
while the existence of a Palestinian state is negotiable.
Second, it would force the Palestinians to abandon the only lever
they have against Israel, which is the ability to create
intolerable insecurity among the Israeli civilian population.
Without that, the Palestinians have nothing to negotiate away.
Finally, the Israelis are asking the Palestinian National
Authority not only to collaborate with the Israelis against
fellow Palestinians, but also to commit to doing so publicly.

The Israelis will not give the Palestinians what they want, a
state. The Palestinians will not give the Israelis what they
want, freedom from terrorism, unless they get a state. The
entire peace process is an attempt to avoid the obvious realities
by creating diplomatic fictions that no one, not even the
negotiators, believe in. The idea of autonomy divorced from
sovereignty, with administration detached from governance, is one
such example of diplomacy torturing reality in the hopes of a
solution. There are many such examples that point to a key fact:
the obsession with the peace "process" rather than a peace treaty
is the result of the fact that no one, including the
participants, have any idea of what a negotiated peace would look
like. So we are in a process that leads nowhere, with the
Americans orchestrating the chaos.

Let us make an observation that is both radical and, to us,
obvious. We have already achieved peace between the Israelis and
Palestinians. It doesn't get much better than this. In fact, if
you look around the region, this is pretty much what peace looks
like in the Eastern Mediterranean. Ongoing attempts to improve
it will only undermine it. The peace is not permanent, but then
peace in this region is never permanent. Indeed, it is never
permanent anywhere, but in the Middle East it is less permanent
than elsewhere. There is no reconciliation among the people,
never any love lost. There is occasional bloodshed and suspicion
is high. But so long as there is no high intensity combat, the
casualties are in the dozens rather than thousands and lives go
on. That is what peace looks like from Bosnia to Afghanistan,
from the Caucuses to Eritrea.

The model of peace the Americans are looking at is the post-war
reconciliation between France and Germany or the U.S. and Japan.
These are useful models. But it should be remembered that they
arose out of unconditional surrender, complete occupation, and
the utter submission of Germans and Japanese to their conquerors.
The Israelis occupy the Palestinians but they have not
overwhelmed the Arabs. The German/Japanese model of
reconciliation is inappropriate here, because neither side has
given up the right to dictate terms.

A better model for understanding the Arab-Israeli conflict is the
Franco-German model after the Franco-Prussian war of 1871 or
between the two World Wars. There was peace, but it was a bitter
peace in which the vanquished plotted their revenge. There was
no permanent peace, but there were temporary "peaces" between
1871 and 1914 and between 1918 and 1939. In other words, there
was more peace than war. In this world, such a deal is about the
best that you can get. There has not been a major war involving
Israel and its neighbors since 1982 and Israel's invasion of
Lebanon. Indeed, the last truly high intensity conflict occurred
in 1973. Even since the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty at Camp
David, the area has been relatively peaceful. So long as Egypt
remains neutral toward Israel, we believe that relative peace
will be maintained. If Egypt drops out of the Camp David accords
then all bets are off.

That is the point we are trying to make. The Israeli-Palestinian
relationship will not improve. There will be attempts to define
the indefinable, reconcile the irreconcilable. There will be
terrorism and counter-terrorism. But on the whole, so long as
the Egyptians refuse to get involved in the Sinai, the
Palestinian position is fairly hopeless. Therefore, Arafat will
cooperate with the Israelis to the extent that his own, domestic
opposition permits. The Israelis, more concerned about
maintaining their own coalitions, will make concessions to the
extent that their politics permits. No one can do anything
permanent and lasting, because nothing in the region is permanent
and lasting.

Instability is endemic to this region because Israel, Palestine,
Lebanon, and Syria are all fragments of a larger entity. Some
are more self-sustaining than others. As in the former
Yugoslavia, all want the others to disappear, while none have the
power to make them disappear. Each nation is forced, on a daily
basis, to confront the existence of other nations that they fear
and despise. Sometimes they ignore each other. Sometimes they
cooperate with each other. Sometimes they try to annihilate each
other. The best that can be done is to move away from
annihilation to some limited form of cooperation. This can only
be done temporarily. The foundation for such cooperation differs
from place to place and time from time. For the Israeli-
Palestinian equation, the key is in Cairo. Cairo is still
neutral, so the Palestinian position is weak and vulnerable.
That is a basis for a kind of peace, at least the best sort of
peace that is available in the region.

When it comes to diplomacy, Americans are engineers. They like
to build structures that are sturdy and last. In order to do
this there must be precision. However, the one thing that is
abundantly present in this region is ambiguity. More precisely,
precision requires people to confront realities that have led
them to slaughter each other for generations. Peace processes
inevitably raise agendas that eventually lead to confrontation
with reality. What Americans cannot admit is that the reality
here is best evaded. Arafat and Netanyahu, like others in the
region, are masters at evading reality. They should be left to
their own devices. Teams of American engineers should stop
flying into the region seeking to clarify things. Sometimes
muddied waters are the best that can be achieved.

Things will not get better between Israelis and Palestinians; and
eventually even this situation will deteriorate. Holding this
temporary peace together as long as possible is the best that we
can hope for. An endless, grinding peace process is not really
all that helpful toward this end. Of course, Netanyahu and
Arafat are men of the Middle East. To the extent they wish, they
will hold the current peace together by amiably ignoring their
helpful American friends. Clinton will be told whatever he wants
to hear. He will then go home and worry about Monica Lewinsky.
The eternal circle of Middle Eastern politics will continue

(Mon Dec 14 1998 04:59 - ID#432148)
Envy - ur 03:08 re Civil Liberties in U. S.
Beg to disagree. You might want to check out closely what the members of the teachers unions are putting into our children's heads. Academia has been taken over by the libs. And most of the media. The Do Gooders you know, doing their good. We are losing our civil liberties at a very rapid rate. When California elected two super libs to the senate I knew all was lost. Buy gold and guns - which will be registered of course so "they" will some day come to get you. Am I a bit paranoid? Time will tell.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:04 - ID#410196)

"...should be...finansosphere"

Nahh, "finansosfear" on /this/ board!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:05 - ID#26793)
Bye, bye, Microsoft. New computer doesn't need an operating system.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:06 - ID#31876)
Talk About Deep Government Spending Cuts!
In Japan there is a proposal for 'halving' the govt work force.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:15 - ID#26793)
Gold mining banned from three Oregon rivers

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:26 - ID#386245)
Going to buy shares... the phone company tomorrow. Have just spent nearly an hour talking to Auracious in noo zeeland and I want to share in the profits. All Aussies--buy Telstra tomorrow on the opening.

G'nite Auratorius. All the best to BJ. Cheers, Nick.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:30 - ID#31876)
Your 05:05 about bye, bye, Microsoft, reminded me of something
that always gives me a chuckle. The name for the first version
of DOS stood for 'Dirty Operating System'.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:32 - ID#386245)
Sorry to be so long getting back to you mate, but jeeez these Kiwis can talk!!! Hoosiers too!!! Nice fellers and the salt of the earth. This Kitco sure makes the world a smaller place.

Would anyone like to make a donation for my phone bill??

Wouldn't have missed it for the world!!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:35 - ID#255284)
Prawn= edible crustacean {sorry crusty}...Barbie = Barbecue, a strange, carcinogenic way of cooking.
Speaking with auric & Nick@c was so extraordinary, and so natural, if you ask Bart@kitco to forward your email to me, I shall do the same {in a few hours ) Perhaps we, too, can talk?
I'd be honoured to speak to someone who waltzes on the Danube on New Year's Eve.

Away to greet an incoming mate & wife from Laos.


Go gloff.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:38 - ID#255284)
Next time, it's on my tab..
I'm a gassy bstard, that's why they call me


(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:43 - ID#253431)
This looks horrible....
No bounce in gold ( off 25 cents in London at this writting. ) , oil is higher, silver up a cent but gold shares will be lower at the opening and probably be taking out 65 on the XAU within the first hour of the opening, all this while the dollar is weaker. What to do what to think??

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:50 - ID#185448)
Be invited to email me at

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:56 - ID#31876)
Trivia - What was it like to visit a dentist 80 years ago?
"Fillings of that time were made of gold, silver or some less
expensive metal." More--

(Mon Dec 14 1998 05:58 - ID#185448)



Needs a _ between fred and vienna:


and then the

(Mon Dec 14 1998 06:19 - ID#240155)
anyone know anything about this?
It seems that the US detonated a nuclear device Dec 12 or 11 1998?

Silverbaron posted the following url

has anyone heard anything about this, I was able to find two earthquakes in that area. both on Dec 12 1998 one at 1:41:32 UTC at 37.46N 116.29W and one at 06:25:09 at 39.76N 118.18W

So whats the deal, I thought we are not allowed to test them anymore.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 06:21 - ID#240155)
anyone know anything about this?
It seems that the US detonated a nuclear device Dec 12 or 11 1998?

So whats the deal, I thought we are not allowed to test them anymore.

Silverbaron posted the following url

has anyone heard anything about this, I was able to find two earthquakes in that area. both on Dec 12 1998 one at 1:41:32 UTC at 37.46N 116.29W and one at 06:25:09 at 39.76N 118.18W

(Mon Dec 14 1998 06:51 - ID#411440)
@ Aldebaran: the seismic magnitude indicates a yield
of between 3 and 30 kilotons. At Mag. 4.5, the best guesstimate
would be about 10 kilotons, or 10 times the size of the
yield that destroyed Hiroshima in WW2. This strikes me as
rather large for mere testing purposes. Could it not be that
this event is actually just an earthquake? This area is
a natural seismic zone.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 06:56 - ID#240155)
rhody .. maybe..
It is an earthquake zone, but there is also a nuclear test range in that area I think. although if it were a test, there are plenty of nations that would have noticed and mentioned it I think.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 14 1998 07:08 - ID#428218)
US National debt................

$432 million increase per day since November 14, 1997!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 07:24 - ID#26793)
$292 seen as a resistance level for gold

(Mon Dec 14 1998 07:24 - ID#288466)
Looks like the event was in fact early on the 12th. You can see seismograph details by following the 'more'link, then the 'Wilber' link below:

(Mon Dec 14 1998 07:50 - ID#411440)
@ Aldebaran: yes the Nevada test site has been used
since 1944 for nuclear test, and it is in the upper end of
the East Pacific spreading zone, where it has been subducted
under the western side of North America. So the area experiences
up to hundreds of seismic events each day. The question is,
is there a difference in the P and S wave pattern from an
atomic test vs a natural seismic event? This would allow
seismologist to distinguish between the two. I would think
there is, hence, maybe the USA deserves some trade sanctions
applied a la India and Pakistan.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:00 - ID#256365)
silverbaron spyder only shows 1 of 2 earthquakes
there was a 4.5 quake at around 1am and there was a 3.5 quake at around 6 I think the times are gmt, but at anyrate there were two quakes accoriding to Iris yet wilber only shows the one in Southern Nevada, not the other one. A Canadian site also only shows 1 of them but IRIS shows both.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:13 - ID#256365)
rhody earthquake/nuke test stuff
Ok, it sounds like you know earthquakes better than I do. I'll trust your judgement as I don't want to learn about earthquakes. The special drawing rights have be booked for a while. Regarding sanctions, I think that would help us with the deflation in commodity prices. But it would never happen. I don't know why for sure, but I am just so sure it wouldn't. On a less pragmatic note, although I am aware that we just drip hypocrisy, our rulers have to be smart enough to know that if we did do a test, that all the other governments would know about it and I don't see what anyone would gain. Several years ago the DoD purchased some monster IBM custom built to model nuclear tests. I have a hard time believing that we detonated a nuke, I just do see why we would. Unless maybe to scare N. Korea, but even that seems very far fetched. I don't know. wait and see I guess. I just got home from work and while at work I mentioned this, and I was reminded that that's about the area where the ET was supposed to land Dec 7. nah can't be....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:23 - ID#26793)
CRB news including commodity based country currency news

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:25 - ID#256365)
sharefin's earthquake link
There is a link on sharefins site under special interest Recent Earthquakes. Following that there is a site that shows both the Dec 12 Nevada Earthquakes. Following the 06:25 earthquake link takes you to a map of the area. that link is

sharefin's site is fantastic, and for any newbies the link is

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:26 - ID#288466)
JPG files
PDF files


(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:38 - ID#35571)
Alright, you guys..
I'm going to be busy today and won't get much chance to fiddle with the levers so I'm depending on you guys to keep everything under control.

That shouldn't be too hard. The markets are starting off on a move to safety mode here early in the week as the Clinton thing moves along and the precious metals should pick up a bit of that action. Already bonds are moving up this morning and gold is rebounding from last Friday's drop.

Also, it's a Monday and Mondays are usually pretty quiet.

So keep it cool, see ya.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:40 - ID#256365)
Silverbaron MJ-12
ah... are you serious? I don't want to offend, but I'm not sure I even believe that the price of gold is fixed much less that the US has contact with little guys from outer space. I'm wrong about lots of stuff though. Besides even the people who do belive in ufos think the majestic 12 docs are a hoax. I think.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:55 - ID#350194)
@Donald @ Date: Mon Dec 14 1998 04:52(Getchell Gold and Placer Dome to merge)
It was about a year ago that we were saying here that the low gold price would encourage the swallowing of the juniours by the mega-mining companies and we have seen this trend develop more and more. I just hope that gold rises soon, before Barrick, Homestake and Placer Dome take over the world!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 08:57 - ID#288466)
I am agnostic on the subject of MJ-12, and its implications. Could be true, could be false. However, this is a great deal of NEW material that has not surfaced before, and apparently much more is coming soon. The Kairos site spends a lot of effort describing the authentication, FWIW.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:03 - ID#256365)
This is just the COOLEST train set I have ever seen. Ok, I can figure this out. But these controls are all hooked up to each other kinda crazy. And I don't see anything labeled gold or silver. Oh, ok here is Yen and I see oil over there, but the gears are combined by a little pulley so I can't change one without changing the other. Hmmm.. Ok, I want to slowly bring sweet light crude to 11 and if that works right I'll crank it up to 11.50 But I can't tell which way that will make the yen go. But I think 100 yen for the dollar is easier rate for people to figure in their heads than 115 per $. Oh WOW, the engines on these trains have little streams of smoke and lights. And the cars are so detailed. There's a little roundhouse and a tunnel marked bis. I can't see where the tunnel goes. HEY, one of the engines on the trains on one track is GOLD colored, and another train has a silver engine. I bet that means something. But both of the trains have to meny cars and so they can't go fast. Maybe I should unhook some of the cars....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:14 - ID#339274)
cyclical lows of gold,
As posted last Friday, were made at the closing hours.
We should accelerate upwards from the opening.
Overhead resistance 82 XAU if not broken,look for 35 Feb/March.
CRB will rebound the next two weeks,after to find its multiyear
low in February.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:19 - ID#212173)
hello cruel world
"push... push...

...wwaaaargh, waaaargh"

plop. Please excuse handle, like a first investment it seemed great for a few minutes, then it didn't and I was stuck with it. Munificent Bart ( blessed be his RAM ) doesn't seem to let you change a suggested handle after finding it already used, choosing instead to suffix "_B". I've also got bored waiting for a password for "counterparty" - my preferred moniker. So, for beanzngold_B please read counterparty.

Enough indulgence. The great wise-ones of the banks and markets are gonna be good at chauffering us over those y2k bumps in the road. They're used to looking ahead, dabbing on the brakes, fondling the throttle, whatever's appropriate, while we Joe Champagnies empty the minibar. Their systems are largely sorted, especially those dealing in futures, because its their F* job. Ordering the future.

So why, when checking my options prices, do I get a little chill down my spine to see Comex/Nymex ( of all people! ) list their 2000 expirers as 00 and - here's the fun bit - order the 00s *before* the 98s and the 99s? Sorting irrelevance or terrifying indication?

got counterparty?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:19 - ID#225236)
@Aldebaran, Nuke tests, etc
One CNN news item I will never forget was US official explaining that it does not really matter that UN could not find any nuclear materials in Iraq or anything like that. It didn't matter because the Iraqi scientists COULD ( not DID are DO ) use NOTEBOOK COMPUTERS to continue their nuclear weapons programs by using simulation.

So, be very, very carefull when you buy your next computer. I mean, what do you REALLY need that 450MHz Pentium for?! US government paranoia, soon comming to the computer near you. Enjoy!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:21 - ID#290172)
Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 14 Dec 1998 ) : 172.879 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 14 Dec 1998 ) : 291.250 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 11 Dec 1998 ) : 172.889 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 11 Dec 1998 ) : 290.800 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 14 Dec 1998 ) : 2.8448 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 14 Dec 1998 ) : 4.7850 US Dollars

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:22 - ID#256365)
Gollum's train set
Why are some of the silver cars labeled WB. There is a B&O for boston ohio, and I think maybe a WP for western pacific? But I'm not famillier with any railways named WB, so I took most of those cars off the silver train so it could go faster. Also I found a dial marked nasdq? I don't know what that stands for but I turned it down by 350, but it didn't seem to do anything, it looks like it's hooked up in someway to the power supply, but really these controls are kinda strang. Well, I gotta get ready for a dental appointment. I'm gonna get some fillings prior to y2k.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:42 - ID#339274)
bought at the opening 18 1/4,pdg is getting blasted

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:52 - ID#25257)
PDG is getting blasted because of the Getchell ( GGO ) purchase. Getchell has left earth and already orbiting. I think it jumped from about 16 to 25 this A.M. I mentioned Getchell a month ago as a great buy.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 09:57 - ID#339274)
lousy deal for pdg,istitution are not happy with this one.
placer might have to reconsider.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:02 - ID#344389)
What a Christmas present for the
shareholders of PDG, the takeover of
GGO is! PDG- last 12 5/16 - 1 3/4.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:09 - ID#339274)
18 3/4

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:12 - ID#33184)
Time to close up shop ...
FUND MANAGERS and institutional investors are so concerned about settling trades before the advent of the euro in the new year and the expected chaos that they intend to cease trading by the end of this week.

Source: The Times

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:13 - ID#25257)
Truly. Getchell now above 28, looking for 34. With 10,000 shares profit will be about 180,000.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:15 - ID#339274)
bought back 18 9/16,stock is volatile,gold firming

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:20 - ID#339274)
is getting dumped by institutions, buying NEM and ABX.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:27 - ID#255378)
Zeke - the real question with Getchell is will NEM make an offer? It is my understanding that GGO was in the cross-hairs of NEM. If I were you I would just smile and sit tight!

Voyeur Professor
(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:40 - ID#231112)
Gold and the Yen

Does anyone here care to comment on a most perplexing non event. Much commentary on this site over the past year addressed the, supposedly, direct relationship between a depressed yen ( trading at $140+ only months ago ) and the declining price of gold. It was argued that when the Yen recovered, the dollar would weaken, causing a spike in the price of gold that had been expensive because of the strong dollar. Nothing of the sort has happened, despite the Yen's considerable strengthening. Why hasn't gold prospered if it has become cheaper to buy now in most foreign currencies. Is it because Asia's recession, one now possibly moving into depression, has created a massive deflationary global cycle? If so, I fear that gold will go the way of equities in 1999, though its extremely depressed price may not have as much downside to it as equities. Any comments?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:44 - ID#9337)
Silver has recovered back to 4.84, yet SSC has dropped to 1/2. They announced last week a further share dilution of 25 million shares and someone dumped 1 million on the market this morning. Looks like mgmt is taking the total number of shares to 300 million and then considering a 1 for 10 reverse split. ( not so wild speculation ) Anyone have any info?

Congrats to you Gretchell holders.....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:46 - ID#368244)
Gold should be up $ 20 an ounce and this little pig just sits and onks, gold is going lower, much lower.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:50 - ID#298259)
Fidelity's Gold Funds...
Select Gold up 7% to $13.30 and Pr. Metals up 6.16% to $9.48 as of the 10am price. Both funds hold GGO as their top holding...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 10:51 - ID#348129)
@Charleston Gold Bug
Sounds like bad market timing by PDG, even though it's probably a good move. The market is very illiquide at the moment....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:01 - ID#212197)
@Voyeur Professor: Yen & Gold
The dollar lost value relative to the Yen and to the Euroland currencies.
But the US$-price of gold remained almost constant. I agree it should have gone up. There is another aspect to this, the deflation which hoit the commodities in general.

In spite of the declining dollar ( relative to other currencies ) , commodity prices declined rapidly in recent months. The CRB index is on a decade low and still declining. But gold kind of didn't move down with the other commodities, establishing prove that it is in it's character not "just another commodity". But it also didn't raise with the European currencies and with the Yen.

When we say: " didn't do this or that" we never should forget that "it", gold's socalled market bahaviour, doesn't just behave being driven by market forces. Or else we would admit that the Greenspan's et al are nothing but market forces.

I never believed that gold was tied to the Yen, even thogh it behaved for a while like that. I think gold's fate will be decided when the Euro and other currencies will look for rescue from the dollar as the only reserve currency. How should these currencies establish credibility without gold?

In a global financial scenario which is driven by the antagonistic moves created by deflation ( i.e., overproduction ) on the one hand, and irrational exuberance in the creation of paper money ( to counteract deflation ) , my feeling is, if gold doesn't get into the center of financial security, the world economy might go to hell.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:04 - ID#20359)
My thoughts on Silver Standard are pretty basic...but I guess my thoughts on everything
on this side and the other side of the Sun are pretty basic...SSRIF/SSO had a trememndous amount of publicity due to the Gold was touted ( 2-3 years worth of touting ) as one of THE two silver stocks ( the other PAASF ) to own for the coming silver boom due to dwindling supplies...the stock was inflated on this assumption and with the loss of the property in Russia it appears that it is a nice little company with some more no less...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:13 - ID#190411)
Here's some Getchell and TVX news.

Kitco has been super slow.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:19 - ID#246224)
V.Prof.@theSushiBar (pass the sauce, please)
Sir, how terribly ungracious of you to bring up past, deceased theories ( ;- )

Consider the recent and rather "unexplained" increases in futures contract prices for Dec'99 gold, soybeans and now interest rates ( spreads just trebled on friday ) . I believe we will see this 'spread' increase and move toward us back here in this 'time zone'. This is our worry indictor. It is the wave of worry.

Gold prices are controlled as an expedient to sooth the furrowed brows. But when the brows can not be soothed?

Buy a lean hog today at $0.09/#. It'll take yer eyes off yer sorrows.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:35 - ID#20359)
Hey...YO!...Mr. President...who is to blame for this...YOU ARE...
North ready for all-out war with US - JASPER BECKER in Beijing

North Korea is in a state of war readiness and is holding mass rallies to whip up anti-American hatred, according to a People's Daily newspaper reporter stationed in Pyongyang.

Commanders of combat troops had been sent to the demilitarised zone separating the two Koreas, while the general staff was drawing up a comprehensive plan to repel an expected invasion by American-led forces, said a front-page story in the Global Times newspaper.

The North Koreans were anticipating air strikes against an underground facility the US suspects is nuclear-related, with an all-out war to follow, the report said.

North Koreans believe the Americans have drawn up an invasion plan, codenamed 5027, and that an attack is imminent.

Reporter Zhao Jiaming said the press was full of warnings by top generals and threats that the Americans would be "exterminated".

A December 4 editorial in the Rodong Sinmun, mouthpiece of the ruling Worker's Party, said the Korean peninsula was on the verge of war and called on the people to become warriors and human bombs.

For the first time since Kim Il-sung's death three years ago, the regime has been holding anti-American rallies.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:41 - ID#20359)
It just never ends...Clintler = zero Consitutional rule...think long and hard on that...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:41 - ID#286230)
Iron Lady wants Missile defense

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:55 - ID#339274)
HAL getting ready for 40,my kind of stock

(Mon Dec 14 1998 11:56 - ID#258273)
Walked over to watch the ticker this morning with my cup of tea and saw the move in Getchell. Thought for sure the great gold bull had broken loose... but alas the quote for Placer Dome slide by. Figure Placer must be buying Getchell for way too much money. Sure enuf..

Congrates to Getchell holders. Unfortunatly Placer Dome is one of my secondary holdings.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:02 - ID#187109)
Happy Hanukkah!
To all whom this message applies...........

go golf spin the dradle ( sp? )


(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:05 - ID#258273)
North Korea
Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to if Klintler is secretly fanning the flames in North Korea to start a War to save his presidency. Nice big dog to wag in a contained area. China comes to the rescue to vindicate him on Chinagate before treason charges surface....

Makes too much sense. Would hate to see gold take off on this note.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:06 - ID#339274)
sold 18 1/4,took a shave of 5/16.stand aside

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:08 - ID#13953)
Voyeur Professor
I think you are wrong about the price of gold tanking. I am not an expert, or a chart reader, and my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's. I only know why I bought gold, and why others like me will buy gold. We bought coins mid summer so I could take advantage of getting out of the stock market at high prices before the big y2k crash. Was I nervous when my coins dropped from $292 to $274, well yes, but only a little. I continue to focus on why I bought them, that is for y2k diversity and capitol preservation if the doom and gloomers are even half right. We are now seeing y2k programs almost daily on TV, more and more people will jump on this wagon. Just wait for the y2k disaster movie to show! The stampede will come, and supply/demand will increase the price. People who pull their money out of the banks will want something to invest in, and I don't think the stock market will be looking that attractive, not for ALL of one's savings. Take a deep seat, and a faraway look, these minor ups and downs don't matter a damn.


Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:12 - ID#33184)
Dollar going south again ...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:18 - ID#224230)
@Big Fisherman - North Korea.
You wrote...regarding starting a little war in N. Korea...
"I would hate to see gold take off on this note"

I wouldn't - ( hate to see it take off on this note ) - It's about time somebody ( yes, even for all the wrong reasons etc... ) took this totally weird paranoid "country" out. It's just a matter of time before they do something really stupid with their rockets and nukes... they can't help themselves. Have you any idea how twisted their version of "reality" must actually be...?

Anyhow, the Japs would pay for the ammo. And the whole region would thank the US. which brownie points could be exchaged for some political quid pro quo surely ?

And it it made gold take off like a ballistic missile it would get my vote in a New York minute. That's why I'm here on Kitco ! Why are you here !? : )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:32 - ID#339274)
back in 18 5/16

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:33 - ID#20359) people talking about taking out N. Korea and in a contained
area...lean a little closer...WRONG!!!...a conflict in N. Korea would make the Middle East look like a garden party...aside from the tremendous loss of life on all would play directly into the hands of...Hmmmmmmmm...let's see...CHINA...yeah...yeah...that's the ticket...

And we have Clintler in the White House who is bought and paid for by the Communist/Red/Military Machine of the Chinese government...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:40 - ID#201145)
Voyeur Professor and Isure Price of Gold
What if perhaps for one reason or another, the price of gold is being regulated such that it remains within a range of 292 - 297 US Dollars. Then if the dollar falls, so will gold. It would remain there no matter what other commodities or currencies do. Some on Kitco think that the US Federal reserve is controlling the price. Maybe, but maybe a far more inocent mechanism is doing this. I know little about it, but I wonder if this isn't being accidently manipulated by the expectations of gold producers and how they handle forward sales. I don't know, but it seems apparent that there is some sort of control at work, and gold will not trade outside that range until that control fails or is altered. The producers could one day wake up and think, gee, we could get $298 for the stuff. Or the Fed could lose control over something. Then the price of gold would move outside that range.

Isure, it could go low, very very low briefly. If the Fed is pushing down, and if demand is pushing up, if demand supsides suddenly only briefly the downward pressure could push the price way down, but that would immediatly increase demand terribly. If the Fed is controling the POG, I think this is the only way the could lose control in the near term. The POG will not stay low, there are to meny "dipsters" in India, China, and maybe even the US.

But then I don't know anything, if fact I am one of those foolish people who purchase dec99 390 calls. There are over 34,000 of those contracts out there I think, at least according to weird stuff!

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:44 - ID#33184)
Why the jump in CRB? Short covering ??

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 12:52 - ID#33184)
How high can a pound rise ...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:01 - ID#288466)
CAFR - Is this why the markets are rigged?
"VERY IMPORTANT Read the Notes in your Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. They should break down the allocations for investments. You may also find investments that are not disclosed and kept separate from the balance sheet on the same report. Make sure to have several other citizens learn with you, making the discovery along with you.

Guess what... Most States are funding their own bond issuances tagging the taxpayer for repayment of the bonds that are funded with their own states investment funds.... This being done under irrevocable trusts with the funds being taken off the balance sheets until maturity of the bonds. Look for the bond dividend yield which is mandatory for dislosure within the notes of the CAFR... "


Has anybody ever heard of this?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:03 - ID#20359)
Ya gotta love it...ya just gotta love it...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:04 - ID#333127)
Management at PDG must feel positive about gold's future to have made such a nice offer for GGO. Offer seems high enough so a bidding war will not start. PDG is on my watch list, hopefully management is right.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:08 - ID#20359)

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:09 - ID#403195)
Placer weds Getchell

Maybe Willson is a fool but I, for one, would not bet against him. Placer has done pretty well considering the p.o.g. He also kept Placer's tail out of the Bre-X wringer.

We have all /said/, time and again, that we deserve higher gold and mine prices. Maybe Willson agrees. Let's all wait and see what happens, let's be sure to take a broad, considered view.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:10 - ID#350145)
gold price control? - Wanyne Angel said fed put floor.
Wayne Angel, former conservative fed, said a couple of months ago that the feds actually put a floor under gold! All commodities are at historical lows, so it would make sense to have low gold prices right now.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:12 - ID#348129)
@CLITTONS is Giving YOUR Money away - To try and save his SORRY A$$
Monday December 14, 12:44 pm Eastern Time

Clinton offers Palestinian big aid boost

GAZA, Dec 14 ( Reuters ) - U.S. President Bill Clinton, seeking to bolster the Middle East peace process, told Palestinians on Monday that he would seek a major aid package for them from Congress in 1999.

``Next year I will ask the Congress for another several hundred million dollars to support the development of the Palestinian people,'' Clinton told a gathering of leading Palestinians on a landmark visit to self-rule Gaza.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:16 - ID#20359)
This is doubt about it...absolutely priceless...
When Zogby, for instance, asked 1,165 adults who they would vote for as President of the United States if the election were held today, 28 percent said Oprah Winfrey.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:16 - ID#350145)
gold range bound
I think the reason gold is range bound is simply that it is on the bottom, but can't rise because of the massive technical damage on the up side i.e. it can't go down ad it can't go up. Also gold is expensive in many other currencies. If dollar continues to fall gold should rise.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:17 - ID#201145)
tolerant1 N. Korea
I get this really scary sense of dread when I think about what could happen with N. Korea. I don't see how the US could fight a war against the N. Koreans the way things are right now in the US. People would ask very hard questions about why? why? and the domino theory wouldn't wash this time. I don't think it would work. I mean N. Korea isn't a country that we could take out in a couple of weeks, it would take years. Those people have been preparing for this for a long time. They have technology that is probably only 10 years behind ours. And most importantly they have defense in depth. And I think the days of hugh multinational coalitions fighting this or that tyrant are over. Just think N. Korea dosn't have to resort to petty acts of terroism, they have a real military. The dread deepens when I think about the deals that might have been cut in that part of the world. Consider the possibility of N. Korea attacking S. Korea at the same time China takes Tiawan. ( I reall wish I could spell ) And at the same time that some nasty russo-japanese thing happens. Maybe Pakistan, though not part of the deal says ah the hell with it lets incinerate India. Or the other way around. These people don't like each other, and if all this happened all at once, really who could stop them. The US would only have two choices, to let S. Korea and Taiwan fall or a choice that is almost unthinkable. But the unthinkable choice isn't really unthinkable, we have done it twice before. It would be a world where US power was terribly emasculated. And it would be a US in serious trouble at home and maybe something to prove in the world. And if Pakistan or India did it first... I don't know, but for about 10 years I have not worried about this, it seemed that I would never have to worry about it again, but I am wondering where I can order EMRAD Potassium Iodide. but hey I'm the guy that thinks the sky is falling so don't worry, I'm crazy

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:29 - ID#28994)
I was reading where 14% of American adults believe in Santa Claus. It is becoming quite clear from whence the Socialists derive there strength. With 14% added to the former 14%, for a total of Oprah's 28%, it is now quite clear how the left gains their strength in Washington.
A triple gulp.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:30 - ID#201145)
silver gold prices up 30min ago
what happened? I'm on 30 min delay but silver and gold are climbing!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:35 - ID#266105)

Traders said dollar outflows from Brazil's currency markets, which picked up speed in December again due to maturing eurobonds, were also worrying. A net $652 million fled forex markets on Friday, up from
a daily outflow average of about $100 million.

As noted in The Wall Street Journal, if capital outflows
continue as the financial bailout package is added to Brazilian
reserves, then in *effect* foreign creditors are being bailed out.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:35 - ID#25257)
OHHHH!!!! NOOOO!!! Mr. Bill!
Geee, what a sweet man Mr. Clinton. Giving the man in the Houndstooth Dishrag all that money! Wow, maybe he would give all our daughters a job in the Whitehouse, huh?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:35 - ID#20359)
Aldebaran, Skinny. gulps and puffs to ya...N. Korea scares a great many people
many of whom are in our military...regarding elections...I think Skinny pretty well covered it...boy do I dread hearing..."you will be judged by a jury of your peers." AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:53 - ID#33184)
Deflation? Inflation?
The fact that capital producing plants are being destroyed worldwide is not deflationary in sense of current income. There is huge supply of "money" moving into the world economy. Inflation is more of a problem around the world than deflation - ask somebody from Indonesia who's trying to buy rice!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 13:57 - ID#373403)
What is up with this stock? Yahoo shows no volume the last few trading days.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:09 - ID#254321)
Criminal Charges expected when president leaves office
Just in case you didn't see this -- more talk about sealed criminal charges against WJC.

Now WJC is a fighter -- he will do everything he can to avoid leaving office. Until Jan 20, anyway, when Al Gore can pick up the reins and have 2 terms. It is possible that these purported criminal charges are an incentive for him to stay in office. But -- I doubt the Democrats want to hear about the lurid details -- witness tampering, intimidation, etc., just in PaulaJonesGate and MonicaGate.

It is interesting that Kenneth Starr ( or replacement ) has until 2003 to finish the investigation. Looks like the Mounty ( KS ) will get his man after all. And -- that sensational dirt about massive document leaks may not even out -- after all.

If WJC is waiting till Jan 20 1999 to step down, then Al Gore will have the opportunity to go through two presidential elections. I wonder -- have the Dems thought about how much damage a criminal trial would generate for the Democratic party? Impeachment/resignation would be batter. But -- Al Gore is expected to pardon WJC anyway -- will he pardon Webster Hubbell and Hillary too?

I seriously doubt that Al Gore would win a presidential election. He was well chosen as WJC's running mate -- not presidential material. The y2000 presidential election is going to be an interesting one.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:12 - ID#348169)
@the skinny Scrooge!
skinny - Are you actually implying that Joly Saint Nick does not exist? And this close to Christmas too! What is a good elf to do, with the likes of you? You need to take in that great old movie 'Miracle on 34th Street', or even its modern remake. Shame on you.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:13 - ID#249244)
Clinton is giving money to Arafat?
Sorry, brothers, I'm puking long and hard on this...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:20 - ID#20359)
JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I disagree with your calling Clintler a "fighter."
I think it is better said that he is a "parasitical extortionist." His record of exaction seems clearly in place...the fact that more criminal charges have not stuck to him is three fold...his hand picked attorney general...his being President...our legal system giving up on cases due to their opinion as to whether the case will bring about conviction irrespective of the facts of criminal activities...

lefty kiwi
(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:28 - ID#32176)
Don't worry ..... buy gold
It is not real money being given away only fiat
Give them more ....

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:41 - ID#255284)
~~~Patron Saint of Dentistry~~~Free Furbies~~~~Scams~~~Where else but Kitco??
All this talk of Dentistry....Hmmm.... a copy of extrapops {I've still got a few left} to the first poster who can name the Patron Saint of Dentistry..

There are several chapels around the world dedicated to this saint, the one in Guernsey was built in 1392. ( This to give a proportional sense of history to some folk who think that history began in 1776 )


You can win A Free Furby!! The following scambusters email arrived recently. I apologise for the length, however, as Furbies and other manias have often been mentioned at kitco, I hope it is not an inappropriate use of bandwidth.

Scams and Myths about Furbies

( Most of the principles below apply to any very popular,
out of stock gifts. )

Furbies are the hottest toy of the season, and it's almost
impossible to buy them in the stores. Police have been called in
to calm things down when shoppers from coast to coast try to
outmaneuver each other for a very limited supply of Furbies. The
list price of a Furby is about $30, but finding them at this
price is almost hopeless. Furbies are listed in newspaper
classifieds and on the Internet at prices up to $800, and with
bids and offers at the auction sites ranging from $65 to over

Our interest in Furby scams started when Audri got taken buying
a Furby on November 28, 1998, at an online eBay auction. Since
we were launching a new site called, we needed
some Furbies to give away for our daily "Free Furby" contest.

So, when Audri saw a post for a "rare First Edition Tuxedo
Furby," this sounded like the perfect Grand Prize for the
contest. She bid $191 and won. Afterwards, we learned that this
Furby is neither rare nor a "First Edition," and she had paid a
lot more than it was worth. This led us to do research about
Furby scams and myths, and we were frankly amazed to discover
the magnitude of the problem.

Conservatively, we estimate that consumers have lost over
$5,000,000 so far, and the real number is probably two to four
times that amount. Whatever this number is, it will double
by Christmas.

The two biggest Furby scams are related to price and rarity.
Furby "For Sale" headlines read: "Rare First Edition Furby -
$350," "Rare Tuxedo Furby - $195," "Family of Four Furbies -
$500," and "Bride and Groom Furbies - $195."

We called Lana Simon, a spokesperson for Tiger Electronics ( the
makers of Furbies ) and asked her to comment on the value of
these "rare" Furbies. "The fact is," she stated, "there are NO
RARE FURBIES and NO COLLECTIBLE FURBIES. We are creating roughly
an equal number of Furbies of each fur color, eye color and
voice pitch." She told us that Hasbro and Tiger Electronics have
no intention of creating rare Furbies, first editions, or even
retiring certain colors and combinations of Furbies. She said
there will have been 2,000,000 Furbies sold by Christmas.

Other Furby Internet scams include:

- Not delivering Furbies that have been paid for. To reduce the
chance of this happening to you, go to one of the reputable
auction sites, ignore the claims that any Furby is rare, and
check out the feedback of the seller from other users who have
bought items from this seller. That way, you'll be able to check
out if the user has received prior complaints or praises.

- Selling non-existent Furbies, such as rare Blue Furbies ( which
are white Furbies dyed blue, if they exist at all ) , Elvis
Furbies, and so on. None of these exist.

- Collectible Furby boxes with a typo on the box. We asked Ms.
Simon about a typo on the original boxes, where the word "Sing"
was misspelled as "SNG." She commented that there were hundreds
of thousands of Furby boxes that were produced before the typo
was corrected, so she felt that these would have no additional
value as a collectible. "The important thing is the quality of
the product, not the box," said Ms. Simon.

In summary, unethical promoters, scam artists, and hucksters
have rushed into this hot market and "invented claims" of rare
Furbies in order to take advantage of unwary consumers. We
advise you don't fall into the trap.

First, decide if you want to pay more than $30 for a Furby. We
recommend most people choose not to. However, if you want to get
a Furby for Christmas, don't spend more than $70 to $105 ( right
now ) or you're overpaying. You can get up-to-the-minute prices
of what people are buying Furbies for at by searching
on "Furby" and then clicking on the "Search Completed Items"
link. This will give you a sense of the current going price for

Nonetheless, we believe it might be better to wait and not spend
$100 now on a Furby. Instead, give your child a card with a
picture of a Furby that tells your child that their Furby
couldn't make it in time for Christmas. You can find a sample
letter at> Wait and
buy one after Christmas for about $30, and use the $50 to $70
( or more ) you saved to buy your child something extra for the

We've been doing a lot of interviews lately on Furby scams and
have been amazed at the amount of misinformation out there. On a
humorous note, one radio interviewer commented: "It's gotten so
bad that people are almost taking dead rats and blow-drying them
to fluff them up so they can sell them as Furbies." ( No, this
hasn't really happened, at least as far as we know. ) ;- )

Finally, we're interested in learning more about Furby scams we
may have missed. Please email us at with
your comments.

As an alternative to the hype, scams and extortion-level prices
for Furbies, we created the site, a site dedicated
to *free* stuff about Furbies. We are giving away free Furbies -
one ( or more ) a day - until Christmas.

It is easy to register and there are lots of chances to win.
Visitors are asked a number of research questions when they
register for the Free Furby contest. This is part of a new
Internet ScamBusters study being conducted on exploding the
myths of how we all really use the Internet.

Visit to register for the Free Furby


I am thinking of manufacturing a Furbicide. Any ideas for a brand name?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:53 - ID#194311)
Worldwide Banking problems..hmmm perhaps...UBS world #2
Moody's downgrades UBS long-term debt ratings
GENEVA, Dec 11 ( AFP ) - US rating agency Moody's Friday said it
has lowered ratings of Switzerland's biggest bank UBS affecting
around 138 billion dollars of debt.
The bank's long-term deposit and debt ratings were notched down
to Aa1 from Aaa and its financial strength to B+ from A.
Announcing the ratings downgrade, Moody's said in a statement
that the rating action concludes the review begun in September 1998,
following UBS's announcement of a third quarter loss.
While weaker 1998 results should not hurt the bank's healthy
fundamentals, the group's business and revenue mix and risk profile
is "no longer compatible with its highest ratings," Moody's said.
Net profits for the first nine months of the year fell to 2.6
billion Swiss francs.

Japan's Nippon Credit Bank in capital deficit: premier
TOKYO, Dec 13 ( AFP ) - Japan's troubled Nippon Credit Bank Ltd.
was in capital deficit as of March this year and has been taken over
by the government, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said Sunday.
"After conducting a financial inspection of Nippon Credit Bank
Ltd. the Financial Supervisory Agency determined that the estimated
net value of the bank's assets was negative as of 31st March 1998,"
Obuchi said.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:55 - ID#33184)
Apollonia - courtesy of my souped-up search engine
Many saints to be found at the following URL :

As I have already won of this wonderful book before, may I donate it back to you as a prize for another quiz in the future.


Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 14 1998 14:55 - ID#242214)
Arafat Cashes IN!
Who says violence never solved anything? : )
Works for Arafat AND our president. :0

lefty kiwi
(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:00 - ID#32176)
Estericist your 12.18
Some might think that USA is a " Totally weird paranoid country "

Your military hawks are just as big a threat to world peace as Saddam ,
North Korea , Pakistan , etc etc

Worldwide disarmament and disbanding of all armed forces is necessary .
Turn the military into domestic policemen
Share wealth and education
Ban derivative trading so countries and whole populations cannot be financially raped to benefit a few who would control the world .
Peace and goodwill to all ....its nearly Christmas

( My leftykiwi moniker is to do with my cricketing bowling arm , but maybe a little bit philosophical also )

None of the above will happen
so Buy gold and prepare for the worst

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:02 - ID#391172)
I purchased a pound of potossium iodide at a chemical supply store for about $ 50.00 in 1987. Chemically pure grade. E nough top pack the thyroid of maybe 2000 people. Seemed to be the right thing to do at the time.

MoReGold-- So what's so wrong about hepling out the palestians to the tune of a few hundred dollars of my money. We had more than a little to do with the occupation of Palestine by the Israelis lo these many years. And now they occupy south lebanon as well. Israel gets about 6-8 billion, 6000-8000 million of my money every year on a regular basis, like food stamps. Israel wants the land, it's perfectly obvious, settlements and all. Israel was created by the UN and it's borders as well.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:03 - ID#20359)
Aurator, Namaste' gulp and a puff to about a gag adult doll named
Clintnochio...use your imagination about which end grows when you pull the string hoop attached to his neck to make the doll talk...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:11 - ID#335190)
December 14, 1998

Toronto stocks drop on gold and bank merger 2

A $1.1 billion acquisition by Placer Dome Inc. saw its shares drop C$3.15, or 14.4 percent, to C$18.65 in heavy volume.

Placer Dome said its planned merger with Getchell Gold Corp values the Denver-based gold miner at $34.45 a share and makes it North America's second largest gold miner in production terms.

Placer was the most actively traded stock on the TSE in early morning action. "We think they overpaid for it," said David Jarvis, liability trader with Levesque Beaubien Geoffrion.

"The takeover should pressure Placer as arbitragers get their hands on their shares," another trader said.

Triple-witching options expiry this week could unsettle markets and increase volatility.

All 14 of the TSE's subgroups were down with financial services leading the way down 1.79 percent and gold down 1.01 percent.

* Barrick Gold Corp. was the fourth net gainer, up C$0.75, or 4.05 percent, to C$19.25 on firm bullion values.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:16 - ID#273112)
Dow down 107, NASDAQ down 57...
yawn ... just another day at the end of the American Republic ... waiting for Clintler to impose Martial Law to "protect the children and women of America from the vast Right-Wing Conspiracy coup..."

anyone wanna bet that the PPT won't show up as usual in the next 30 minutes?

Spud, destroyer of Solanums...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:17 - ID#255284)
cage rattler
Which Search engine do you use? That was very impressive!. My source calls her St Apollinia, St Apollyne and St Apolline. Okay, the extrapops goes back into the pool for future distribution.
ROFL "Clintochio." How about a Monika doll - guess what's in her wardrobe?
There's no need to ban the currency markets. In fact, with a Tobin Tax, the currency markets could provide vast sums to goverments thus allowing income tax reductions. It'll never happen. Buy gold!

lefty kiwi
(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:28 - ID#32176)
Hard to get a bite out of the Merkans this morning

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:29 - ID#230216)
If we kill the ferbie for food will we be eating Furburgers ;- ) ????

I will use ferbifungal 2000 to exterminate. I am working with some venture capitalists to make an infomercial to sell my new product. I am also in contact with a meat manufacturing plant to make and distribute furburgers..............I think there is a market here.......... ( big grins ) ..............looks like a 'goldmine' !!!!!!!! Any takers? You can get in ground floor................ search fro life before 1776........... ( don't think there was any myself ) ...............not the goooood life anyway :-^ )


thanks ERLE for the info......

I'm off for a dingo's breakfast.......

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:41 - ID#316256)
Patron Saints
What no patron saint for engineers? Guess we don't need any help: ) Also not mentioned was the patron saint for the "wee people":...St. Ozzie mon Dias. Guess where that came from?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:45 - ID#350358)
@Spud ....................PPT
You woke them.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:46 - ID#256365)
did the PPT just fail?
Is there any evidence to this plunge protection team or are is it just made up?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:56 - ID#343171)
The IMFs Policy on furbies

In 1995 the IMFs Executive Board reviewed the role of furbies in the IMF and
concluded that its policy on furbies should be governed by the following

As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, furbies provides fundamental
strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF furbies should
avoid weakening its overall financial position.

furbies holdings provide the IMF with operational maneuverability both
as regards the use of its resources and through adding credibility to its
precautionary balances. In these respects, the benefits of the IMFs
furbies holdings are passed on to the membership at large, to both
creditors and debtors.

The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of furbies
among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet
unforeseen contingencies.

The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to
the functioning of the furbies market.

Profits from any sales of furbies should be retained and only the income
deriving from the investment of those profits used for any operations
that might be agreed.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:56 - ID#230216)
'Tis true regarding the PPT. According to Spuddos I am a member of that Cabal. I cannot, however, give you the secret handshake...........I signed a bloodoath with RR and AG............ ( my buddies for life ) .

We are secretly hoarding gold............lots of it. The CB's are just giving it............


igtimePPTer ;- )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:57 - ID#334280)
The scenario is playing out. The full House will vote to
impeach along party lines. While the stock market and
economy fall apart during a lengthy and bitterly partisan
Senate trial, investors will lay the blame at the feet of the
Republican party. Wealthy Republicans and Democrats will watch
their wealth evaporate. The smart ones are shorting the market now.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:57 - ID#334280)
The scenario is playing out. The full House will vote to
impeach along party lines. While the stock market and
economy fall apart during a lengthy and bitterly partisan
Senate trial, investors will lay the blame at the feet of the
Republican party. Wealthy Republicans and Democrats will watch
their wealth evaporate. The smart ones are shorting the market now.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 15:59 - ID#252150)
Aph@It seems that a few investors may have been concerned about
impeachment proceedings today. Then again, a good excuse for profit taking.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:00 - ID#35757)
@Aldebaran (did the PPT just fail?)

The message is: Stop the impeachment process or suffer the consequences.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:03 - ID#246224)
Furbie-burgers (not fur-burgers)
EB - you will, no doubt, need to work on your marketing skills.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:04 - ID#256365)
So what do they do, just come in and buy the dow index at 8695.60? Not very subtle are they? This is incredible!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:08 - ID#334219)
Looks like the corrective ABC move from 10/8 on the XAU is about to end..and gold/silver may not reach much lower prices. If this happens, do you still maintain targets of $350 gold and $7-8 silver for next quarter?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:11 - ID#255284)
Good one, mate! The Furbies as currency of last resort.

Cogito ergo spud : I think therefore I yam?

Has the wink museum made a bequest to Canabeera's hoard? Do I need to send a wink inspection team to California to sort this out?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:23 - ID#256365)
I can't believe what I think I just saw. No foolin now, do you people really believe that a PPT exists? Don't kid around, because I am prepared to believe after watching what I just saw. I know that volume is often very heavy at the end of the day, but this volume was insane and it was willing to pay the same price.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:27 - ID#273112)
@EB ...
naaaa, EB, yous ain't swinging yous legs with tha likes of AG & RR, yous jus a small fish, merely looking outs fo his own good...

... try to stop thinking of Disney, and say "I wuz wrong, Real America!!" and maybe, jus maybe dat Golden head of Cheese will grace us with his radically far-out words once more.

Spud, sad today because his favourite Lebanese restaurant closed ... bloody savage North Texans, eat your damn enchiladas ...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:35 - ID#246224)
LSteve - Why there is no patron saint for (male) engineers.
One day God called all of the saints together in heaven to ask for a volunteer to support a new group of people called 'engineers'. But one after another of the saints demured and slowly the great hall of heaven was empty. God looked around and saw Gabriel.

God - Gabriel. Any suggestions? It seems there isn't alot of grass roots support fo these 'engineer' types.

Gabriel - Well, Lord, I think the main problem is one of hubris .. pride. It seems that these 'engineers' have no clue that they are merely mortal and frail. Its quite a problem.

God - So, what can you come up with? Any ideas?

Gabriel thought 'long and hard' on that one before answering. But toward the end a little light went on and he began to beam very brightly.

God - Well?

Gabriel - I *think* I've got it, Lord.

God - And..?

Gabriel - Well, its wives, Sir.

God - Wives???

Gabriel - Yes, Lord. Wives. And I think it will work very well on a number of accounts. Let me explain.

First, wives always ask their husbands to fix things. And we all no that although engineers are designers, they are terrible at actually making anything work. This will certainly lower the pride quotient over all, which is one of our main goals.

God - Well enough. What else?

Garbiel - Secondly, wives will always speak with their engineer husbands in completely non-technical, heart to heart conversation which, though it will drive the poor fellows absolutely crazy for quite a number of years, will eventually bring them to a place where they finally see that people are always more important than things.

God - Oh, that WOULD be worth the effort, wouldn't it! And, any thing else?

Gabriel - Well, there is a little trouble with our procedures here because we need to have a _saint_ interceeding for these fellows. But I did a little research and found the answer there.

God - Ah, yes. I was just going to mention that.

Gabriel - Well, Lord, we found that in every specific instance so far the wife of an engineer was a saint in her own right. We would like to suggest a blanket ruling in favor of recognition.

God - You are absolutely correct Gabriel. Request granted. But I have only one question for you?

Gabriel - Yes, Sir?

God - Who will we get to be the patron saint for the wives of engineer's?

( ta dump, dump .. )

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:53 - ID#273112)
@Our enlightened, kinder, gentler neighbors to the North ... facists - they can barely wait...
According to the paper Canadian troops have already been advised to prepare for what would be the greatest peacetime deployment of soldiers in case of unrest or other troubles due to the computer bug.

The deployment operation, known as "Abacus," foresees the imposition of martial law and soldiers assisting the police, the paper said.

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:54 - ID#242214)
ALDEBARAN - "No foolin now, do you people really believe that a PPT exists? "

The Big-time Crash should have begun in 1987, which it did,
and the Depression should have started a year later. Uncle
Sam contained the '87 crash, and softened the depression into
the '91-94 "recession".

The next crash should have begun last year, with resulting
depression beginning this year. So far, Sam has purchased
another year.

We're watching the equivalent of the John Law / South Seas
bubble, with colusion between government and large corporate
entities to keep the paper game going at all costs. When
it finally blows, it will blow big, just like it did in the
1720s. *Really* big, like no or no credit for decades.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:57 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 14

Gold 825,735 - 103 troy ounces
Silver 78,170,519 + 264,104 troy ounces
Copper 86,831 + 3,381 short tons

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:58 - ID#288186)

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 14

Gold 825,735 - 103 troy ounces
Silver 78,170,519 + 264,104 troy ounces
Copper 86,831 + 3,381 short tons

(Mon Dec 14 1998 16:58 - ID#35757)
I'm afraid what we are witnessing is THE END OF THE REPUBLIC.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:05 - ID#354133)
U.S. NORAD Alert!
To all you Kid-koites: NORAD sees & tracks all vehicles flying within U.S. airspace.

Peace and Merry Chrismas.

High-tech NORAD web site offers inside scoop on Santa

by Capt. Brad A. Swezey
Air Force Space Command Public Affairs

PETERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Colo. ( AFPN ) -- It's the night before Christmas
and all through the house, not a creature is stirring -- except for your
children, who can't seem to sleep.

Just as you're at your wit's end, you remember a phone number you used
to call to find out where Santa was. "The kids will get a kick out of
that," you think.

Wait a second, mom and dad -- this is the 90s. When your kids want to
know something, rarely do they turn anywhere else except "the web."
Will you be able to help them?

Yes. By going to the NORAD ( North American Aerospace Defense Command )
Tracks Santa web site at, your children will
not only be able to track where Santa is every hour Christmas Eve, but
can also learn more about the jolly ol' fella from now until then. The
site is up and running through Christmas day and is designed to be easy
to navigate. Use the arrows on screen to scroll up and down the menu
and main page.

The current site will be upgraded to include an animation teaser showing
what you might see when you track Santa Christmas Eve. And, every hour
on Christmas Eve there will be a new audio report from Cheyenne
Mountain, Colo., a still satellite image of Santa's sleigh and two
versions of an animated sequence of Santa and his reindeer seen over
various parts of the world. The site will remain "live" for 24 hours.

This site is heavy-duty, and can handle mega hits -- it has a capacity
to handle 240,000 hits per minute.

If your children only speak French, Spanish, Italian, or Japanese,
you're in luck -- this year's site can be viewed in each of those
languages ( and English, of course ) .

( From AFSPC News Service )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:07 - ID#350282)
ALDEBARAN - PPT (We didn't make this up, I swear...)
Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you
can't win. ~ R. E. Heinlein ( The Notebooks of Lazarus Long )

Plunge Protection Team - WashPost

John Crudele's commentary 10/29/1997

See under "Plunge Protection Team" ( scroll a little )

Another discussion tapestry

Thank you very much GGO.
Baby got a new pair of shoes...

Gold Dancer
(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:08 - ID#430221)
Who Cares?
Good simple analysis. The end was going to come in 87. But the
derivitive was invented. This bought time. Maybe because there was
no other world reserve currency that was far enough along and to risk
a melt down at that time was not allowed.

But the bigger the rise the deeper the drop. It will probably
surprise us all, either how low it goes or how long the bear market
lasts. Could last for decades. Just a slow grid down then up then down
then........with no one except day traders making any money. But I really
expect a crash of some kind. No idea when. So I don't buy puts.

Thanks, GD

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:13 - ID#254321)
It's obviously the Republicans fault!
Cavender: I think you are right on the money on that one -- Impeach Bill Clinton and you crash the markets!

How would the Republicans retaliate?

Perhaps that sealed criminal indictment against WJC etal gets leaked, or some scandal unfolds about ChinaMissleSatGate where John Huang gets a secret security clearance and a personal CIA agent to give him secret documents, which he carries out of the Commerce Building to the Steven's office, and faxes them to the Riady's who give them to the Communist Chinese.

Or perhaps something leaks out regarding the Communist Chinese bankrolling the 1996 presidential elections.

Or -- more leaks out from Linda Tripp regarding death threats.

The Republicans can escalate too -- only problem is -- I think both Republicans and Democrats would love to limit impeachment proceeding to MonicaGate. The other stuff is much more sensational, and would tend to embarrass both parties.


Any idea why gold isn't moving up? I thought it would by now -- but I tend to expect changes in the markets long before they know they should change.

Liquid assets now 50% gold equities, sold defense equities. Hope I am not too early on this. With my luck, something will happen in the Middle East, or in Korea.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:17 - ID#249232)
Deflation is accelerating and the Dow is again below its 200 day moving averages
Gold held well today. A big move in gold is about to start in 2-4 weeks. Load up on the senior gold stocks, they are still bargains. The best seniors are: ABX, HM, PDG, NEM, ECO, CBJ, MDG, ASL, BMG, KGC, AEM,AU,ASA, TVX,HL, CDE and PAASF. Among the juniors the best issues are: GRERF,BGO,MAENF,CRRS,ALTA and RGLD. Be patient,only 2 more weeks for tax loss selling.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:19 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.87. The 233 day moving average is 29.28

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:27 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .226. The 233 day moving average is .248

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:32 - ID#194311)
Bear for or crash?
Euro fears spark early
end to trade

FUND MANAGERS and institutional
investors are so concerned about settling
trades before the advent of the euro in the
new year and the expected chaos that they
intend to cease trading by the end of this

Most do not intend to buy or sell UK or
European bonds or equities after Friday
unless profit warnings or a mega-merger
make it essential.

In addition, private client stockbrokers are
advising small investors to keep clear of the
market until the new year to avoid rogue

They predict that Sets, the Stock Exchange's
new electronic trading system, will react to
the thin trading by magnifying spreads, and
private investors who are buying funds for
personal equity funds could be caught out by
erratic closing prices.

Soros hints at sterling attack

GEORGE SOROS, the financier who made
600 million from speculating against
sterling in 1992, yesterday said he is ready to
try again if Britain remains outside European
economic and monetary union.

Mr Soros forecast that sterling is likely to
fluctuate wildly against the dollar once the
currencies of the 11 countries in EMU are
fixed in three weeks' time. If there is a lot of
movement within the dollar and the euro, he
said, the fluctuations could be magnified in
sterling. "It will be exposed to the likes of me
taking perhaps speculative swings at it," he

Comment: We have some very formative times upon us. Likes of Soros on the loose and the Euro coming on line, all hell could break loose. The US market is looking very vulnerable after double top on increasing volatility, next thing below here is 7000 bottom from Oct., in quick order also, I think. As nobody is regularly calling for a crash anymore, the time is ripe.....I'm expecting the turkey regurge to taste just a little more bitter this year for the stock turkeys.

Gold will shine for Christmas.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:41 - ID#252391)
Gold Rally - I bet
We will see

(Mon Dec 14 1998 17:50 - ID#252391)
So you think we'll see Gold 315 before DOW 10,000
I appreciate all the cheerleading and wild guesses that gold will suddenly emerge from its duldrums and on the back of the Euro and a stock market crash rise to the occasion. Frankly, after more of a year of hearing these perdictions for one rally or another and seeing gold not respond to anything - I have might dobuts that the launch of the Euro, the Impeachment of the President, stumbling economics in Japan or the end of the world for that matter will have much impact on Gold.

Gold is a traders market and a short sellers' trading market at that. The Dow and S&P have broken down - I look for 1050-1100 as the support for the S&P.

The dollar will have to crack 90 on the dollar index to get even the least bit of attention in the gold pits - heck it has fallen 10% and the price of gold has done what??? Nothing. The lower dollar is good for multinationals and our exports, hence good for earnings.... a weaker dollar might help the farm sector of our economy which is what less than 2% of GNP. What makes every body so sure the EUROLAND countries will want the dollar to be weak - perhaps they will support it the same way they have in the past by selling gold/

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:02 - ID#344326)
Oleman or Oldman
Is he posting on Avid Chatter? If he is, can someone post his thoughts here?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:04 - ID#254321)
Tax loss selling
JP: Could you explain what that is? I've never been able to figure out what that was exactly, and that mysterious thing the Mutual Fund companies do every quarter so that their returns/losses are optimized.

By the way, I think the WJC stuff plus the uncertainty of the Euro -- with a little y2k mixed in -- will make gold/gold equities a very nice investment for the next year. The WJC situation will keep the US dollar going down, IMHO.

And -- AG must keep inflating the dollar to prevent the coming recession ( or worse ) . Any idea whether commodities are bottoming?

Did you see the news regarding a Swiss plebescite vote on whether they will sell some of their gold? Even if the Swiss do, this is nonsense, as the Swiss would not sell now when gold is at an all-time low. They will wait.

Only a financial disaster of some kind in Switzerland could lead to official gold sales -- and the plebescite vote would probably fail anyway.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:05 - ID#194311) would be safe to assume then
that you are heavily short gold?

What's the size of you trading positions then, now that we know your angle?...It will help disclose the worth of your information.

Gold will rise sometime in the future right, why not now? Past behaivour does not always dictate future direction, in fact hardly ever.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:08 - ID#344326)
Another VERY bad day for Dow Transports...
Does not bode well for the DOW Industrials. Down over 2% ( again ) Check this URL for the last five days of DOW's a one way ticket DOWN.^DJT&d=5d

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:09 - ID#266105)

Patently Preposterous Twaddle.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:14 - ID#317193)
Gold Rally.....???
Last I looked, gold is at the bottom of its trading range. Call for a gold rally after $305. Now is an accumulation phase. Do so only with PMSM...patience, my son, patience.

When the dollar AND long bond fall together gold will fly. Buy physical gold during this time if you wish to hold it and not trade it.

Harmony, sweet Harmony....JD....yes.

Good fortune to all us "fools" who invest in the and gold shares.

Brother promised not forget me.


(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:26 - ID#43460)
crazytimes, do you look at CBS marketwatch charts too?
I like Yahoo, but sometime use the CBS charts in the afternoon when Yahoo gets slow. For a cheap thrill try inputting $UTIL for Dow Utilities or $TRAN for Dow Transportations. I'm not a TA but I notice the obvious when it is laid out in black and red and white!

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:34 - ID#242214)
2BR02B doesn't believe in the PPT....

To paraphase Mother Abigail in _The Stand_ --

"That's okay, 2BR02b... They believe in you". : )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:44 - ID#45173)
First bear market rally is officially over
Back to 6800 by end of January, then retrace to 8400 into the Spring, then back to 6100 by mid-year, then the long ride down into 2000, the year that is. Of course, the DOW might be there at 2000, too. Like a tide going out, each successive wave doesn't make it to the peak of the previous wave and falls further back than the last.

Gold? The Fed is keenly aware of the dangers of rapidly falling asset values and runaway deflation in this debt-ridden financial system. A rush to liquidity/panic out of debt paper will be simultaneously countered with fresh liquidity and selling of CB gold reserves to create a barrier to a flight to gold.

We watch this FIASCO together?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:47 - ID#213135)
Gold at 350 and Silver at 7.50-8.00 would probably happen in the 2nd or 3rd quarter reguardless of the bottom price. The position carries more uncertainty at these levels. Over 5.00 and 305 I'd be a buyer and take my chances.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 18:58 - ID#247428)
potossium iodide
Ok we have some K and some I I understand the basic stuff but what does Potossium Iodide do to one's liver that is deemed so importent by my fell Kitcoits? would someone please clear this up for me!

Kind Regards

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:01 - ID#213135)
A few days ago I posted there was a short term correction coming up. The depth of it I thought we would have seen last thurs or fri. The reason for it I didn't know and I still don't. But the out look hasn't changed. This market is moving up in a series of 5's amd 3's and I still expect new highs, but 10,000 + maybe pushed back to Feb. This correction should end in the next day or two maybe as low as 1130 in March SnP.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:04 - ID#30345)
Armgold--I think it is to protect the thyroid from radiation concentration.

EJ--Excuse my boundless ignorance, but what is the URL for k2?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:11 - ID#247428)
LongJ thaks for the feedback but I have one more question (S)
what about the rest of you? fine you can protect your gland ( grin ) but doesn't Radation mess up everything else as well? I mean cells would not grow the same way and things change to other forms.

Kind Regards

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:14 - ID#391172)
I haven't looked up what someone might have posted about liver involovement but I did research Potassium iodide a few years back. It's given to anyone who has no history of iodizim to pack the thyroid so it won't absorb radio-active iodine in the event of a nuclear explosion or melt-down. A little less than one gram per adult dose as I recall, it's not critical since it's not toxic at these amounts.

I used some to treat my dog for a skin disease. It didn't work, didn't hurt him either. It should be given at least 12 hours or so before the CLOUD arrives to pack the gland good. Any more questions and I'll take the trouble to look it up in my Harrison's Internal Medicine..

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:29 - ID#390415)
There's got to be a reason
Fidelity Precious Metals up 6.49% today.

I can retire now!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:30 - ID#29048)
Some meaning is lost by posting only one participants comments from a fast moving conversation. I recommend reading Avid Chatter ( Saturday ) , to get the full flavor of Oleman's comments. Here are the ones I found helpful:> ( registration required, but it's free )

oleman... Sat, Dec 12, 2:05PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

I have posted here several times since 1996 that ALL the wealth of the Boomer ( dippie ) generation would be destroyed in the coming bear mkt. I have maintained close touch with several relatives who know NOTHING about markets, except that the U.S. stock market always goes up. They were scared in 7/96, 3/97, and 10/97, but did not seriously consider liquidating. In Aug and SEpt this year they were petrified. All of them were on the verge of liquidating when the bottom came. When we recovered all that lost ground in 6 short weeks, their fate was sealed. They will NEVER sell. Period. If we break this range to the upside, we should surpass 1400 on the SPX in a few months. Either all these folks, who, in earlier times ( pre-1990 ) would have looked forward to Social Security and a modest pension from their employers, are all gonna be rich. As I've said before, I have read the book, and it dont end with 40 or 50 million middle class fokes gettin rich. It just dont work that way. btw, I do think this range will eventually break to the upside. I think the SPX will be north of 1300 and climbing when the Senate votes nest spring on the fate of our Great Leader.: )

oleman... Sat, Dec 12, 2:18PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

dgoto: When you were circumnavigating the globe protecting the Klinton's right to be treasonous, I was a serious student of Economic History. You are WRONG. The greatest inter-generational transfer of wealth in the history of the world is taking place RIGHT now, and it is 180 degrees opposite to the flow posited by yourself. Young workers are seeing over 15% of their earnings flow into the pockets of retired fokes, who, on average already have a much greater share of the wealth than the young boomer/gen-X types, from whom the politicians are stealing. Some of the youngsters are catching on. All will eventually. Soylent Green, anyone?: )

oleman... Sat, Dec 12, 2:37PM CST ( -0600 GMT )

g9: And further, stocks are the most overvalued they have been in my lifetime, but the break from this range will still be UP, imo.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:30 - ID#434108)
The U.S. A. continues to get sold to overseas control; as fiat dollars continue to flood the world
part of the legacy of fiat-money...
- a paper-dollar and
artificial, fractional-reserve credit system
leading us down the primrose path to disaster....
with persistent, relentless, hemorrhaging trade imbalances....
plus red-ink flooding the world everywhere.....

as "once-Titanic-nations"...young & old...


one by one
region by region
continent after continent

( but- not to worry--
the 'skipper' reasures us:
The Titanic & the economy.....
are "basically sound".....
and "unsinkable"......

National Grid to buy U.S. utility

LONDON - National Grid of Great Britain will buy New England
Electric System for $3.2 billion in cash and assumed debt, the second
purchase of a U.S. utility by a British-based power company in a week.
The purchase follows ScottishPower's announcement last week that it
will buy Portland, Oregon-based PacifiCorp for $11.8 billion, as
overseas companies seek to enter a U.S. market made more accessible
through deregulation. Both deals likely will face tough scrutiny from
regulators as they lay the groundwork for foreign companies wanting to
gain access to the U.S. electricity market.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:32 - ID#26793)
Brazil market is "walking on eggs" down 8.5% today.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:32 - ID#391172)
The threat from radiation, as a cloud which comes from afar, around the world maybe many times around the world is mainly in the form of radioactive iodine, an isotope created in the meltdown process manily but any nuclear expolsion can produce a lot of it. If your thyroid has absorbed as much as it can hold of regular iodine it's "packed" and therefore protected from taking on the hot stuff.

The hot stuff just stays in the thyroid and peppers the cells with radiation over a lpong period of time...then comes cancer, then death. So long ater the CLOUD has passed people, all vertebrate animals, die for months, even years.

The radiation at the scene of the disaster is short term and if you survive you might make to a ripe old age.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:32 - ID#228136)
JTF - Tax loss selling
Basically it works as follows. Suppose you had some capital gains from stocks that you had sold during the course of the year. To reduce your tax burden you may offset these gains by selling some of the turkeys in your portfolio that have lost money. Thirty days later you can buy the turkeys back should you so wish and still reap the tax benefits.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:38 - ID#434108)
A. Lincoln
' cannot raise-up
the wage-earner......
by tearing down
the wage-payer....'

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:41 - ID#43349)
Here's that chart you were looking for:

And the one to compare it too:

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:45 - ID#242325)
OLEMAN is very good but his arrogant certainty that the next big move will be up bespeaks the pride that often comes before the fall. People like him who know the market is grossly overvalued, but are cocksure they will be able to ride the wave up and get out just before the big collapse will be tought a lesson in humility.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:49 - ID#213135)
I can only say that Placers bid for GGO only underscores my belief
that Stillwater Mining is by far the most under priced security
in the precious metal sector. Beyond that I see a compression
on the shorts to unwind a position that will cost them dearly.
Believe it!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 19:52 - ID#43349)
Gold equity merger mania?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:03 - ID#20359)
Some Potassium Iodide stuff...

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:08 - ID#213135)
This site is too lethargic. Wake up! Your moment is at hand.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:12 - ID#255284)
"One may buy gold too dear" Old Proverb
Now, heres something to set a true gold bugs heart a-beating. Discount gold. RJ, now, I was pretty impressed with your buck below spot offer last week, but, take a look at these apples, these guys know how to discount, indeedy:

December 14, 1998

Notice to all subscribers of the Promotion Report:

Through our affiliation with the Wealthy Investor Network,
subscribers of the Promotion Report ( trial as well as paid ) may
purchase a limited amount of gold at only $125.00 per ounce.

For more details, see:>

Or, read on:

Recently the Wealthy Investor Network was approached by an
established gold mining company that want to raise capital by
pre-selling some of their gold ( before it has been brought out of the ground ) .

The company is in late stage exploration ( pre-feasibility ) and are
within a few months of actually producing gold. They have
proven reserves and significant hard assets.

Here is what has been discussed so far:

You may purchase a limited amount of gold at $285 per ounce for
delivery next June/July. The company will issue a notarized letter
stating that they are fully capable of fulfilling that obligation.

For each ounce you take delivery of, you also receive an option to
purchase two additional ounces at a discounted rate ( see below ) .

The discounted price per ounce will start at $US 200.00 and
go as low as $125.00, depending on how many ounces you purchase at $285.
For example;

Ounces @ $285 Discounted price/OZ
10-25 ( 10 min ) $200
26-50 $175
50-250 $150
251+ $125

More details are available at



Okay, buy one ounce at $5 below spot today, for delivery next year and get an option on 2 ounces with deep discounts...

Can it be that hard to get gold financing at the moment?
Is this bearish for gold? I mean, if gold goes to $124 per oz the deal sucks, right?
What about the notarised letter? A waste of ink? A good security?
What about those 99 390 Gold calls overhanging the market?

Is there something Im missing here? I sure would like to hear what you all have to say.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:17 - ID#29048)
Old Gold
You are making my point about following a conversation out of context. Oleman is a very successful, experienced trader. He posts his thinking with support at or about the time of his trades, usually in advance. I have made money following his thinking and so have a number of Avid posters. Oleman is in agreement with APH on the next move. Is APH arrogant? You are coming across as pompous. Post your predictions with support and let everyone benefit from your analysis.

Doctor Gold
(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:20 - ID#272136)
Kitco it dead? is the operator asleep? or has it already
checked out for Christmas? Perhaps it is just an early victim of Y2K!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:22 - ID#434108)
a 'Proverb' :
"a word fitly spoken ( -written ) ....
is like apples of gold,
in pictures
of silver...."

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:31 - ID#261322)
Hi Selby- I too had an amazing time at the Kitco get together on Saturday. The credit however goes totally to Mooney for organizing it. Outside of a suggestion or two on locations, he did all the work ( to my knowledge anyways ) . And to all there ( and anyone else interested ) - let's do it again!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:32 - ID#434108)
the lemmings....the cliffs....the red seas.....everywhere.....
lemmings - rushing to the cliff
and over
into the sea
of red-ink.....

Retail sales gain surprising 0.6%
Cash registers ringing in November

By Rex Nutting, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:59 AM ET Dec 11, 1998


WASHINGTON ( CBS.MW ) -- Retailers are having a jolly
season, with spending up 0.6 percent to $229.4 billion
in November, the
Commerce Department said Friday.

The report is yet more evidence that American consumers
are putting
everything they have into keeping the economy growing.
Wall Street
economists were expecting nearly flat retail sales in

Sales in October were also stronger than previously
believed. The
government revised its estimate to a 1.2 percent gain
from a 1 percent
increase previously reported.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the
Producer Price Index
fell 0.2 percent in November, while the core rate,
which excludes food
and energy costs, rose 0.1 percent. Economists were
expecting a 0.1
percent drop in the PPI and a flat reading for the

Despite the low inflation, the strength in consumer
spending will likely force the Federal Reserve to
hold off on any further interest rate cuts at its Dec.
22 meeting, economists say.

Retail spending, which represents about one-third
of U.S. economic activity, is up 6.3 percent from a
year earlier.

In November, sales by auto dealers and
department stores led the way. Sales excluding
autos rose 0.4 percent. Most kinds of retail stores
had higher sales, except gas stations and
restaurants and bars.

Auto sales rose 1.3 percent to $56.7 billion after
rising 2.6 percent in September. Other durable
goods were also selling briskly. Sales at hardware
stores rose 0.9 percent to $14.1 billion and
furniture sales increased 0.8 percent to $13.5
billion. Sales of durable goods are up 8.4 percent
over a year earlier, a sure sign that low interest
rates and growing incomes
are making consumers confident enough for big-ticket

Nondurables also sold in November. Sales at general
merchandise stores
rose 1.4 percent to $30.2 billion, the biggest gain
since February. Sales at
apparel stores gained 0.8 percent to $10.4 billion.
Drug store sales rose
0.8 percent to $9.1 billion.

Other retail sectors were somewhat weaker. Sales at
food stores gained
0.6 percent to $37.6 billion. Gas station sales were
flat at $12.4 billion as
prices fell. Sales at restaurants and bars plunged 0.9
percent to $21

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief for CBS

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:35 - ID#213135)
The Message
If only, and I emphatically state "only" a small percentage of the
amount of money went into precious metals do you have any conception
of that potential. Amazon, ebay, aol, onsl, seek, and on and on are
wortless. Its only paper like in Northern Tissue. The internet for
the interim has proved to be a disaster for the holidays. If 70% is
done now what is their to look forward to. As always, the market is
hyped by those who are getting out!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:35 - ID#377211)
FSAGX and FDPMX have done great today... Thank you George Domolky for loading up these two funds with GGO! ( holding 8% of portfolio in end-August of this year )
While BEARX does not do great at the moment because this fund has gold stocks and is shorting stocks like AMZN, YHOO, DELL, MSPG, GTW, AOL... explaining the double bottom it is making at this time!.
If we have a market crash, you will see that BEARX will make a repeat of its extraordinary performance... It could be a powder keg... Just IMHO.
Good luck to all

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:41 - ID#25257)
Guru Stats
GURU/XAU ratio = 9.5 on a 10-scale. Not a good sign for the XAU, but hopefully just a flukey data point. Anyway, "the GURUS are upon you Samson!"...they've come out of the caves and cracks in the rocks and are prophesying profusely.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 20:49 - ID#255284)
You're right, I should've given the entire citation:

"One may buy gold too dear."
Heywood 1546 Proverbs

and yours:

"A word fitly spoken, is like apples of gold, in pictures of silver."
Solomon in Proverbs 25:11

i am, aurator

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:00 - ID#286230)
Old Gold
Your message of caution to APH could have been usefully directed to a "former" poster Geo S. Cole who constantly forecast gold to rise starting at $395 in 1996 and perhaps is still expecting a rise today. Caution is as caution does.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:00 - ID#350194)
@Gollum and Charts (Sam_A and 6Pak - Please take note) and TO Party comment.
Gollum - Thanks for remembering!
Did you answer my question the other day? I really wanted to know if the other gentleman's Silver stochastic chart had the same parameters as yours. It appears from the one you posted today that it did. His chart showed us they had crossed last week and thus gave a very good leading indicator of the move that took place today. This is now doubly confirmed by your chart of today showing the break-out of Silver above the 18 day moving average. Silver is in a 'buy mode' for sure. Actually I was hoping for the 'spike' down that APH thought might occur, because $4.40 would have been very much a safe low risk entry point to play the futures market but that seems unlikely now. It really does look good on the Silver Chart and the Gold stochastic also seems to be crossing ( although that is not as clear ) .
If you did comment previously I think that the I might have missed it because of the great Toronto Kitcoite bash on Saturday, which, BTW, I would have to say was an unqualified success with 12 Goldbugs in attendance at the luncheon and the 13th and 14th ( Steve in TO and Bmacd's spouse ) showing up at the subsequent pub crawl. More on that whole experience later. For now, suffice it to say that 6Pak, Mooney, MOinTO, Bmacd and spouse, and Farmer and spouse and Steve in TO, ended the festivities near closing time in a very comfortable, Toronto microbrewery, 'Cheers' type of establishment.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:03 - ID#255284)
Would anyone who was lucky enough to attend the Toronto meeting please post some stories about who was there, what happened, reminiscences..

Enquiring minds thirst for details....

Speaking of which, it's time I revisited the Waterhole

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:05 - ID#350194)
@Gollum and Charts (Sam_A and 6Pak - Please take note) and TO Party comment.
Gollum - Thanks for remembering!
Did you answer my question the other day? I really wanted to know if the other gentleman's Silver stochastic chart had the same parameters as yours. It appears from the one you posted today that it did. His chart showed us they had crossed last week and thus gave a very good leading indicator of the move that took place today. This is now doubly confirmed by your chart of today showing the break-out of Silver above the 18 day moving average. Silver is in a 'buy mode' for sure. Actually I was hoping for the 'spike' down that APH thought might occur, because $4.40 would have been very much a safe low risk entry point to play the futures market but that seems unlikely now. It really does look good on the Silver Chart and the Gold stochastic also seems to be crossing ( although that is not as clear ) .
If you did comment previously I think that the I might have missed it because of the great Toronto Kitcoite bash on Saturday, which, BTW, I would have to say was an unqualified success with 12 Goldbugs in attendance at the luncheon and the 13th and 14th ( Steve in TO and Bmacd's spouse ) showing up at the subsequent pub crawl. More on that whole experience later. For now, suffice it to say that 6Pak, Mooney, MOinTO, Bmacd and spouse, and Farmer and spouse and Steve in TO, ended the festivities near closing time in a very comfortable, Toronto microbrewery, 'Cheers' type of establishment. Also in attendance at the luncheon were Rhody, Not Sam ( Sam_A ) , Mike Stewart, Selby, and ALI ( who flew in from Alberta ) and mystery guest - goldbug ART! Fun and educational time was had by ALL!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:09 - ID#255284)
in cyberspace NOONE can hear you scream
You answer before I ask the question.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:11 - ID#105139)
Fidelity Select Gold Chart
Fidelity Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Select Gold UP %7.0 today!!!!
Precious Metals UP %6.49
Energy Service UP %2.83

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:11 - ID#213135)
Northern Tissue
I guess I am not making the point. Most of the stock certificates
are similar to toliet paper. When a company needs money they print toliet paper. It basically gives the buyers the ability to either
use it as wallpaper or put it on the spindle to use as necessary.
The only hard asset is the one that hits the bottom of the bowl.
No dividend, no promise of return of capital. It is mind bogoling
to believe that so many millions of people buy this B.S.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:21 - ID#28994)
My deepest and humblest appologies for appearing to behave in such a manner as to be labled the Christmas Grinch. At one time, I was very benevolent and distributed many dollars to the more unfortunate of society. However, as the years passed, the government kept taxing and taxing me, and every year at a greater rate. Then I began to wonder who was in need of the money. The government had taken over providing for what they thought was the needy. I now go out on the street and place a hundred dollars on the sidewalk and the first government supported, welfare basket-case that comes along to pick it up, I tromp on his fingers with great glee and delight!
GGGGGGGGGrrrrrrrrrrrrr yep uh huh.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:25 - ID#207428)
To find out more about preparing for fallout and the need for potassium idodate, go to this site, which has a six part real audio series from survival expert Ted Wright.
He speaks on all aspects of disaster readiness. With regard to potassium iodate, ( used to block destruction of the thyroid from fallout ) he says: FEMA has tried to ban potassium iodate and says it would be too expensive to provide to the population. Their plan is simple: perform thyroidectomies on the exposed population. ( That is, surgical removal of the thyroid. ) It's for your own good, you understand.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:26 - ID#227305)
This is the craziest
world I have ever lived in.A reasonable person has a need for sensability.Instead resonable investments lag.Goofy investments,wildly overvalued investments appreciate.This is frustrating.I'm pissed.

I'm pissed because easy credit is eroding the viability of responsible business. Easy credit encourages risk,and too much risk begets recklessness.I'm missing something here.Whatever happened to those I borrowed from years ago that were concerned about not only my ability to repay,but the perusal of a decision to do so, by a superior. The dollar is being diluted, borrow all you can.Lie and borrow more.Boost those numbers.Go get-em.Yeh!

I don't believe this can go on forever,even though it seems that way.We are approaching beyond forever. More than once I have had quiet conversations with myself.A lifetime of learning,patience,and responsibility is confounded by seemliness. I have seen the times when debt was not easy,and profit was difficult to make.I have seen easy money and easy debt destroy people and institutions.I believe I will see it again soon.Is this reasonable?

I catch a glimmer of indignation in the eyes of those who will not be shouted down .Hear,hear to those brave republicans who would not be tured away from conviction and truth.One day soon,when this fool we have for a president ,and the perfidious minions like him who have been sown into the cloth of government,are washed away,maybe,just maybe,we'll hear questions such as " What are we going to do about the debt?" " Don't you think we ought to do something about the debt?" My God----- we can't possibly fund anymore of that until we do something about the debt."

Responsibility,please.Something reasonable ,here.A little truth would do me some good.I am tired of muttering to myself and using words like perfidious minions.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:30 - ID#25257)
I replenished my Bandelero with 7mm Silver Rounds yesterday only to discover a rise in the price of Silver Boolets Maing! What-the! Is Silver on the Crescendo? Is there a Werewolf in the Whitehouse? What is happening with Silver, AnyOone?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:36 - ID#374235)
Crash Index
Anyone keeping track of the Crash Index? -8.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:37 - ID#350194)
@aurator, SteveinTO, Selby, Rhody, Farmer, MoinTo etc.(anyone who attended)
Could someone else please give a low-down! I'm still bushed! One thing aurator - 6Pak did get his button! ;- )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:42 - ID#218248)
ptwskool: Your not alone!!!
Just be prepared because, as these words have been spoken before,"Those who do not learn from their mistakes are Doomed to repeat them" No doubt about it, this is going to be a 30's repeat all over again!! Get in cash NOW!!!!!!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:46 - ID#350194)
I heard taht you were going down to the pub and I wanted to make sure that a partial answer would be there on your return, but you tricked me and posted before you left, or changed your mind or some such. BTW- Not EVERYONE has read extrapops! Thanks Again for full version BTW! ( Love those witch hunts. )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 21:52 - ID#434108)
final lows for precious metals, are most likely, confirming .... at this time: 12/14/98
DIVERGENCES, between price-highs &/or price-LOWS...
in the weekly 'trends' of gold & silver prices...
often identify -
..... "turning-points".....
These divergences,
are almost always - 'useful indicators'...of critical....
..... turning-points...
-- valuable..... if identified.

These 'divergences' are often -
important opportunities,
of trading lows/bottoms.....&/or

Another useful tool of timing, is VOLUME;
and 'VEX' - or volume explosion ( -excess ) ,
can often 'hint' of a final bottom, or top, in that investment:
SSC is indicating a volume-excess or volume-explosion,
for this Silver mining company, in recent daily trading.

ther are growing indications & indicators, including facors:
that add credence to the likelihood of an important, historic
in gold & silver prices,
and related investments.

Sincerely yours,
David Blair Macrory>>

A useful 'tool-kit' of timing investment & trading decisions,
is a 'model', based on
my personal investment & trading experience to-date.....
beginning, in 1967 -- - "CPROOFS.

C - commitment of traders patterns related to price patterns

P - Price patterns, trends, 'flags', H&S formations, gaps, etc.

R - rate-of-change ( -various ) values compared/contrasted to price patterns

O - On-Balance-Volume patterns, and variations

O - Oscillators - such as MACD, RSI, STOCHASTICS, etc.

F - Family-grp. divergences:
such as when Dow & S&P do not reach new highs, or lows, simultaneiously; or the metals, or T-Bills & T-Bonds, etc.

S - Social-Setting:
When gold is strong/bullish; stocks, are often bearish - etc.

Best Wishes.....
.... - for your short-term trading,
.... your long-term-investing,
and your dollar-cost averaging....


David Blair Macrory

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:02 - ID#348286)
Nice to see your indicators are bullish, Euro-Effect also comming.
Good luck to all the Gold Bulls.......

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:16 - ID#219363)
@Test, Everyone: Equity Markets
I've been watching the Crash Index. *smile*. It was 0 last week, went to -4 Sunday night and is now at -8. It bodes well, not. The Crash Index has been accurate and has been the only thing that I've seen that has been worth the bits it's transmitted in regarding this market. If it hits -10, time to get out, period. If not, I wouldn't freak, well, I shouldn't say that since I never got back into the market this time. The market didn't look strong today at all and the transports have NEVER made it back since July, not even close. The well known stocks seem to be the ones driving the market indexes up. Oleman has been wrong before though it's always a bad idea to bet against him, but even he doesn't seem that sure this time. All bets are against a big Christmas decline, and yet it seems to be happening regardless. Most people haven't sold out of the market, as should be obvious. Once, shame on you, twice, shame on me, as the saying goes. This was everyone's second chance to get out, and I'm sure there will be investors out there kicking themselves if we move much lower than this, and they'll all be screaming "I wish I had ..."

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:21 - ID#255284)
Noooo. When I said I was going to the Waterhole, I meant it cyber-literally {c-literally?}
I'm checking to see whether the lion is laying down with the lamb, or whether any other Blakean myths are coming true. It's me doing the Nostradamus perdiction thingie, not going to the pub, not tonight.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:22 - ID#45173)
aurator re gold promo
As a guy who's had to run similar promos to make the quarter, it looks like your basic volume discount deal where revenue is paramount over margin. Let's say they get in $1,000,000 in revenue from this promo at loss. If their fiscal year ends in, say, Sept., they have at least lived to get the stuff out of the ground to sell $10,000,000 during the following three quarters at a profit on average. This might just be exactly what it appears to be: a great deal. If we can find out who the mine is and when their fiscal year ends, we'll know for sure.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:32 - ID#344326)
Speed and gagnrad...
Speed, Thank you for posting Oleman's comments. He called the Bear in July and called the bottom in October. Both Oleman and APH are bullish on US Equities. It's hard to argue against them. The only thing I can say is that there are two NEW factors on the horizon ( EURO launch, Y2K ) Those factors are huge and give a large unpredictability to the markets.

gagnrag, Thanks for the link to that CBS market site. I'm not well versed in TA. ( all I've learned has been from lurking around traders on the internet, mostly here and on Silicon Investor.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:37 - ID#45173)
Thanks for your answer the other night. I'll get me one of them bogus bill detection pens. Of course, there are those that say they're all bogus, just some more than others.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:46 - ID#25257)
Christmas Decline
The December 15th Selloff is in place and will occur per schedule. After more than 20 years of following this particular date-phenomenon, I'm confident of this date of all dates. The question is: Will the Christmas selloff be followed by the January "Effect" or rise. This January is different in that it is the January of the Euro, but I sense a real Bull resurgence despite the Euro. Gold will remain level for now.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:46 - ID#219363)
The image,

isn't available and is making the site slow.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:47 - ID#45173)
The belief that the US equities markets will continue to do well is predicated on the false notion that we are still in the growth phase of a world equity market. In the final stages of the growth phase, the decline of Asia equities markets sent capital into the US equities markets. However, the current decline in Asian markets you'll notice has been simultaneous with declines in the US markets. That's because the end of the equities boom has begun. It will wind down until the end of 1999. In early 2000 will begin the commodites boom, attended with devaluations of the dollar, and high inflation and increased taxation, that will last as long as the previous equity boom. Thus a new cycle begins.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 22:52 - ID#219363)
Equity Markets
Anyone care to put a bottom on this particular down-draft ? It's nice to see the CRB rally a little bit, even if it is only 1 percent ( it's been destroyed for days now ) . Anybody know if Sharefin has updated his swing ?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:06 - ID#254288)

Just as Judiciary was piling 4 strikes against Clinton; the Japanese nationalize Nippon Credit Bank, who is said ( by Japans top honcho ) to have been operating with negative balances since last March.
Without this sudden realization, todays dollar would have been much weaker than 116+ and gold a bit higher. That is, if this YEN/GOLD relationship is deeper than media bull. Or is it like everything else in the relm of fiat Manipulations, just a decoy?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:07 - ID#344326)
Thanks for the post. I see your point. In my book, you are in the "Best of Kitco". A question to you or anyone....Many have said that to keep capital coming into the US Markets, the dollar needs to weaken so as to make US Equities "more affordable" to the rest of the world. I don't understand that. If capital comes in to US Equities, and US Equities are US Dollar based, then it seems to me that if the dollar were to go into a long decline as many think will happen when the EURO launches, then the value of US Equities goes down too when the capital wants to go "home". Am I wrong with this assumption?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:07 - ID#258273)
What, me worry?
OK OK, now that I have been convinced that I should go to my doc and have him set me up with some iodine tabs, I might as well go for the antibiotics as well. Now what do I get for Anthrax?

Of course my doc will suggest perhaps some Prozac instead.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:12 - ID#258273)
Impeachment momentum
Saw the lates poll today. 38% favor impeachment. Up 6% in one week. How long can the dems keep harping that the "vast majority" favor censure?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:13 - ID#431200)
World's gold miners embrace mergers, acquisitions
Monday, December 14, 1998
World's gold miners embrace mergers, acquisitions
MERGER MANIA TORONTO, Dec 14 ( Reuters ) - Consolidation has become the name of the game in the troubled gold sector as the world's largest producers scour the earth in an aggressive hunt for takeover targets and merger partners. Canada's Placer Dome Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. , two of North America's three gold titans, signaled the industry's new spirit of togetherness during the past week with a series of proposed acquisitions and deals worth an estimated $1.5 billion Continued..........................
Placer Dome buys Getchell
Gold miner spends $1B ( US ) to pick up neglected asset
The Financial Post
 Gold miner Placer Dome Inc. of Vancouver said yesterday it will buy Getchell Gold Corp. for $1.08-billion ( US ) , a price that values Getchell shares at more than double their Friday close. Continued.....................

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:14 - ID#25257)
Curie's Disease
This Potassium Tab, is it good for Radiation Sickness? P'haps we need this in the Bunker? These Silver Rounds are getting crowdy down here!

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:18 - ID#219363)
Goldman Sachs 4Q Profits Plunge
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Goldman Sachs, the New York investment bank renown for its bullish outlook on Wall Street, said Monday that its profits plunged 81 percent in the fourth fiscal quarter as the firm continued to be pummeled by overseas financial troubles. Goldman Sachs' dismal performance was widely seen as a prelude to the industry's year-end report cards. Just two months ago, several of the largest investment banks disappointed investors with sagging third-quarter results and grim predictions of more to come. "Our fourth quarter results reflect the extraordinarily difficult business environment in which Goldman Sachs operated this fall," John A. Thain, Goldman's chief financial officer, said in a statement. Goldman Sachs is Wall Street's last major private partnership. It reports pre-tax profits because the taxes on the firm's earnings are paid by the individual partners. Goldman, which abandoned plans to go public in September, said it earned $107 million in the quarter ended Nov. 27, compared with $567 million in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $915 million from $1.59 billion. The industry has been struggling to cope with Russia's loan default in August, crippled Japanese banks and instability among speculative investment companies known as hedge funds. Several of the largest investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, have fired thousands of employees, cut back on executive travel and other expenses.
Merry Christmas Abby.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:18 - ID#242325)
Millenium Bug and food Supply
Food Supply Update: December 1998
Mon, 14 Dec 1998 20:28:09 -0500

Food Supply Update: December, 1998

Y2K Food Supply Prospects Paint Frightening Picture

copyright  1998, by Geri Guidetti
This and all Updates may be reprinted and distributed in any media if done so in their entirety, including byline, Web address and signature file
information. They must be distributed free of charge unless included as part of a magazine or journal.

It's crunch time. Here comes 1999, and it promises to be a dilly. Not since the days when guns replaced sharpened hunting sticks, and grain mills
replaced crude, hand-hewn mortars and pestles, has a year's rollover meant more to the question of whether or not there will be enough food for the
future. Simply put, what we doas nations, states, businesses, families and individualsin the next twelve months, may well determine what, when,
and if we will eat in the year 2000 and beyond.

Over the past three years, I have been sounding an alarm that our food supply is much less safe and secure than any of us can imagine, largely due to
vulnerabilities wrought by the same technology that has brought us so much food. We've created a monster, and the monster's about to get sick. If you
come to the same conclusion, it will raise your anxiety level. Most of us don't need anymore anxiety in our lives, yet the flip side of that is that it is
better to know, when you might be able to do something about it, than not to know and be helpless to change the outcome. It is with some apprehension
that I offer some thoughts about the bigger food supply picture for 1999 and prospects for Y2K.

We will redefine food in the year 2000. It may take a little while, but that
must-have-super-size-fried-double-whopper-with-bacon-and-cheese-with-cherries-garcia-and-big-gulp-chasers will be metamorphosed into a
grateful-to-have-bowl-of-vegetable-soup-with-homemade-bread-with-water-chaser. And remember, if you are not part of the solution, you are part of
the problem.

Despite the calm reassurances and optimistic projections of elected leaders, appointed agency heads and corporate CEOs, the ugly truth about our
collective, global impotence to purge our infrastructure of the so-called Millennium Bug is leaking, seeping, oozing out. The Millennium Bug is the
Ebola of our technology based existence. There is no cure for Ebola, and it will infect the computer-dependent food supply monster in the year 2000.
Unless we hear and see proof, in the next few months, that the complex production, processing, distribution and sales limbs of the beast are fixedor
that effective contingency plans are in placeincreasing public awareness and the resulting panic will make it sick well before the close of 1999.

Let's look at some prospects for disease prevention. The U.S. Department of Agriculture ( USDA ) now has a web site offering called, "Facts About the
Y2K Problem and the Food Supply Sector." You can find it at It is here that you will find Secretary of
Agriculture, Dan Glickman's, public statement on the problem. He observes that it takes the work of
"tens of thousands of people" to produce a meal for an American family. He then says:

"I must confess, however, that until recently I hadn't thought very much about the connection between food on our tables and computers. But, as a new
millennium approaches, that link is becoming all too clear....We are facing the potential of serious disruption because of this problem...."

Interesting. In July of 1997 I published an Update citing data in one of the USDA's own reports on the extent of computers in all aspects of agriculture
and posed the questions, at that time, concerning potential impacts on our food supply. Had Mr. Glickman even seen that USDA report? Had he thought
about its implications for our nation's food in Y2K? In his current statement, he goes on to say,

"That's why USDA, along with the rest of the Administration, is hard at work to make sure our internal systems are Y2K compliant. We are also
working with our partners in state and local governments who help deliver federal programs to make sure our computers continue to talk to each other
and perform the work they are programmed to do. Now, through the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, the federal government has
undertaken a massive outreach effort to heighten awareness of the Y2K problem.

"The Council has asked USDA, working with the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, State, and the Commodities Futures Trading
Commission, to lead the government's awareness campaign to the food supply sector."

Let's get this straight. First, Dan Glickman, the head of the federal agency that oversees food production for the U.S. and much of the rest of the world,
just recently became aware of the connection between computers and food? Next, the newly formed President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion has
asked the USDA to work with The Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, and State to lead the government's awareness campaign on
Y2K to the food industry ?

The Department of Defense? On November 23rd, the Department of Defense was given a D-minus on the House of Representative's quarterly report
card on its Y2K progress on mission critical systems. Mission CRITICAL systems only. On November 27th, the Defense Department's own Inspector
General accused the Pentagon of falsifying Y2K compliance reports released by its Special Weapons Agency, the agencyare you sitting down?--that
manages our nuclear weapons stockpile. ( Falsifying reports. Isn't that the same thing as lying? ) The Special Weapons Agency admits that it did, indeed,
certify computer systems as Y2K compliant without completing testing on them, and the Pentagon admits to having no explanation for its agency's
misrepresentation. In fact, only 25 percent of systems reported by the Defense Department as being compliant actually were, according to a report
released by the Inspector General in July. THIS is the department that has been asked to lead, with USDA, food supply industry awareness.

USDA's second, assigned leader in this "massive outreach effort to heighten awareness..." is the Department of Health and Human Services,
November 23rd recipient of an F grade on their Y2K report card. It seems this department which is responsible for administering the nations Medicare
program has only fixed 7 of their 100 mission critical systems. Given the potentially catastrophic consequences of a failed Medicare system in 2000,
how much of their staff and budget do you think they will assign to a food supply awareness campaign?

The Department of State, the third assigned leader, is yet another rated F agency. ( If you still have some question about whether we are in good hands,
overall, with our federal agencies, the U.S. Agency for International Development ( USAID ) received an F as well. It seems their recently purchased
computer system is not Y2K compliant. Rep. Stephen Horn said, "They receive the dunce of the year award." )

Back to Secretary Glickman's official Y2K statement:

"The best way we can do that ( lead the government's awareness campaign to the food supply sector ) is by forming a partnership with industry groups
whose members are involved in food production and distribution. Our goal: to make sure everyone involved in food supply production, processing,
distribution, and sales is aware of their potential Y2K problems, understands the importance of acting now to check their systems, and knows where
they can go for help."

I do pray that even a quarter of "everyone involved" in food supply has not waited until now for this leadership in awareness, understanding, and
"checking their systems." If so, the party's over because there will be no food served.

According to several of the nation's top, most respected senior programmersthe men and women working in the belly of this sick Y2K beastit is
already too late for awareness, understanding and checking. It is too late to write a plan of action. It is too late to expect to find and keep programmers to
repair all of your systems. It is too late. If you are to remain in business after 1999, if you are to become part of the solution, if you are to be there for
the rebuilding of our infrastructure in the next century, it is time for contingency planning. It's not too late for that.

If Americans and, for that matter, the rest of the technology-dependent world, are not to panic about year 2000 food supplies in 1999, please answer
honestlyand PUBLISH WIDELYresponses to the following: How are you working now to ensure us that you can deliver the goods if your
mission critical computers collapse? If your suppliers' and vendors' computers collapse? Farmers--if your tractors don't work? If the Global Positioning
Satellite system some of you use to farm doesn't get fixed? If you can't get fuel for your farm equipment? If your combines can't harvest? What seed
will you plant in Y2K if your spring seed shipments don't arrive in February and March 2000? How will you produce food and seed for 2001 if you
miss the year 2000 planting? If the multinational hybrid seed producers can't produce seed for you? How will you plant if there's no gas or diesel at
your local supplier for your equipment in 2000? If you can't get fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides? Are you stocking up now? CAN you stock up given
your current financial condition?

Supermarket chains: How are you planning now to stock your stores so folks can have food on hand to see them through at least a few months of 2000,
if necessary? Are you increasing your stocks now to ensure us that there will be enough? We read that whole cities only have 72 hours of food in their
pipelines. That the U.S. only has 3 months worth within its borders. Have you communicated that to emergency services and civil defense
organizations in your city? What are your alternatives to just-in-time inventory management? Can you find/build space for longer term food product
storage? How are you planning to sell food when your check-out scanners fail--if the power goes out in Y2K? How will you total cash
ordershand-held solar calculators? Have you bought them?

Food Processors: How are you working to assure us that those canned beans will be processed long enough to kill botulism bacteria? Are there manual
overrides for your conveyor belts and heat/pressure canning operations? Have you talked to your suppliers about alternative methods of getting the
beans to put into those cans? How will you get the huge amounts of water you need to process food if the municipal water systems go down? If the
water is insufficiently processed and contaminated? Conversely, if it contains dangerously high levels of chlorine? Have you thought this through?

Food distribution centers: How will you know which store needs what if the scanners and computer calculations go haywire in Y2K? How will you get
product to ship if railway shipments are delayed or non-existent. If some/many/most of your truckers are not able to deliver product for you? Is there a
basic list of products that you will ship to each and every store if there is no computer communication between you? Can you do it by telephone? What if
there are no telephones?

Food industry leaders: Have you done the "big picture thinking" about your industry if a worst case scenario is realized in Y2K? Are you aware of what
a worst case scenario would be like? Have you done the "dominoes thinking?" What proportion of the industry is now devoted to production of
highly-processed, energy and computer dependent foods? Have you talked among yourselves about rethinking food product needs in a national
emergency? With rolling blackouts and intermittent refrigeration? Can a portion of your factories be retooled to produce foods with high, concentrated
nutrition and a long shelf-lifeno refrigeration needed. Now ?

Enough questions. I encourage readers to share them and your own food supply questions with anyone involved in food production or supply in your
area; your supermarket manager; your mom and pop grocer; with emergency preparedness groups; with clergy; your city council president; your mayor;
your state representatives; your boss; your mother-in-law; whomever. Remember: if we're not part of the solution, we're part of the problem. The first
part of doing contingency planning will be to raise the volume on the questions we have and to persistently insist on answers. When we have answers
we think we can trust, we can then make the personal and community decisions necessary for survival. REAL leadership is obviously not going to come
from the top on this. It's going to come from the bottomgrass roots. From youall of you.

If the senior programmers are rightif it's too late to fix even the mission critical systemsthen food and water will prove to be our most critical
national concern in mid- to late 1999. Electrical failures and fuel supply interruptions will make them obsessions in 2000.

Our entire human food supply is based on plants and plant seeds. Seed for farmers may be in short supply in 2000. New, hybrid and non-hybrid seeds
produced in 1999 for the year 2000 crop may not reach all who need it due to transportation and distribution breakdowns. Those commercial farmers
who didn't stock two years worth of fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides in 1999 may be out of luck in 2000. Most of these inputs are petrochemical
based, and the refineries and chemical companies may be plagued by their embedded chip problems. ( A horrifying post by a refinery worker recently
claimed that refineries will NOT be functional when the clock strikes twelve on January 1, 2000. He claims they can't even find all of the embedded
chips to test unless they break down and rebuild all of the refineries. There's no time for that. Guess we won't know if refineries and fuels will make it
until January 1st. )

If international and national oil, gas and electricity are not in good shape, several of the multinational seed and chemical giants will run into serious Y2K
difficulties. This scenario WOULD affect the food supply for the year 2000 and 2001. Distribution of diesel fuel and gasoline supplies to run farm
machinery may be undependable. Seasonal planting deadlines would be missed. Seeds or no seeds, many crops would not get planted, and that would
prove deadly for 2001. That year would be worse than 2000. Those with a cache of non-hybrid seeds and some land to grow it on should at least be
able to eat come summer and fall. Those who learn how to multiply and save that seed for 2001 and beyond would no longer be part of the problem, but
part of the solution. They'd be less likely to go hungry.

Unless we get some fast, honest ,complete answers, AND encouraging ones as well, 1999 will be a year of food panic. Like your withdrawals from
your bank account, what you take out of the store will be limited. Rice: $7.29 for a 10 pound bag, reads the ad. Limit, one. Coming to a store near you.

You have to be part of the solution. We have a year to reach more people, to push for serious contingency planning, to help one another. Think village.
Think community. Grow a non-hybrid seed garden THIS summer. Multiply the seed. Give some away. Learn to can and dry food. Teach others to do
the same. Teach your family members, too, in case anything happens to you. Be part of the solution.

Ebola kills its host by infecting host cells with its "bad code", corrupting and commandeering host DNA, forcing it to spew out bad, instead of normal
data, replicating the virus, over and over again, until the whole host body is one seething bag of bad virus. Though there have been a couple of reports
of successful treatment with antibodies against this monster, aggressive support of progressively failing host systems is the only treatment available to
date. There is, at this time, no hope of going into every cell in every host and excising or fixing the bad code. There is no magic bullet.

By a combination of arrogance, ignorance, greed and denial, we have infected the global "host" with a technological Ebola. It is now systemic. If the
senior programmers are right, in 1999, we will begin to bleed. In 2000, we will hemorrhage. Our focus must now shift from expecting to cure it to
contingency planning for critical, life systems support. Electricity. Food. Water. Telecommunications. Fuel. Medicine. From these, with newly found
humility, we will rebuild.....Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
The Ark Institute, PO Box 142, Oxford, OH 45056. Non-hybrid seeds, educational materials, and support for sustainable food self-sufficiency and
You CAN do this!
Email: The Institute's web site also includes archived back issues of the Grain and Food Supply Updates.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:22 - ID#25257)
Amazing these polls. Most of the folks I know don't favor Impeachment 'cause they demand ERRADICATION:CLINTON AND HIS CRONIES OUT OF OUR WHITE HOUSE AND BACK WITH THE CARNIE THEY CAME FROM!!!! Anybody who wants Clinton and Cronies to remain are simply TRAITORS.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:24 - ID#219363)
Venezuela Oil Co.'s Profits Plunge
CARACAS, Venezuela ( AP ) -- Plummeting oil prices have cut profits at Venezuela's state oil monopoly by 71 percent this year, Petroleos de Venezuela president Luis Giusti said Monday. The company's profits dropped from $4.8 billion last year to an estimated $1.4 billion this year, Giusti told reporters. Prices for Venezuelan oil hit a 12-year low last week, dropping to $7.66 a barrel -- barely half the average price in 1997. The plummeting prices forced the government to slash about $2 billion from this year's national budget. Revenue from Petroleos de Venezuela accounts for one-fourth of the budget. Venezuela's fiscal deficit is estimated at about $5 billion and is expected to balloon to at least $6 billion next year. The crisis also forced Petroleos de Venezuela, which is one of the world's largest oil companies, to reduce spending on investment by 29 percent, to $4 billion, Giusti said. He added that he did not expect prices to rebound in the next few months.
How long will Venezuela run on that deficit ? Hmm.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:29 - ID#25257)
Sorry for the Loud Commentary, but the droning Soliloquy of Well-Known Weiner-Lover Barney Frank on CNBC just doesn't seem to disuade my people from the True View.

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:30 - ID#254288)

Getchell Gold is said to have a resource of 20 million ounces.
The company has never operated well, so the generally high price it commanded during the past years had to be a reflection of those implied reserves.
That PDG will pay 2.45x fridays closing price indicates that those reserves are real. IMO
PDG is probably the best operating gold miner on the continent.

Steve in TO
(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:30 - ID#287337)
crazytimes - you're right, the idea that . . .
a falling dollar will help US investments is misguided.

If an economy has very little foreign investment, then a drop in exchange rates can help industries post better profits, and the markets can go up.

When there is a lot of foreign investment though, falling exchange rates hurt the markets. This is because foreign investors lose money in currency exchange losses that offset their profits from the investment. This is why a falling dollar always causes US investments to drop.

- Steve

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:39 - ID#25257)
Thanks for touting Getchell, one of my favorites; however, what about TVX? What effect do you see on this issue?

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:46 - ID#219363)
Not a bad day
Only 18900 people lost their jobs on Monday,

Royal Dutch-Shell To Cut More Jobs ( 4000 )
Seagram 2Q Earnings Seen Flat ( 3000 )
RJR Nabisco To Cut Another 3,900 ( 3900 )
Report: Citigroup Cutting Back ( 8000 )

(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:47 - ID#93135)
What pm is going up? What pm is going down?

For fun and profit
Track these fraternal twin pairs

XAU:JPY paired with XPT:USD

XAU:XEU paired with XPT:SDR


XAU:USD matched with XPT:XEU

Gold shoelaces
Plat shoelaces
Trs chic
[i'm quite serious]

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 14 1998 23:58 - ID#33184)
Goldman Sachs ///// 4Q Earnings fall 81%. This may serve as a significant catalyst for US financial issues today... OUCH!