Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:00 - ID#284255)
Bullion may return to its glory days - it's old but it's good
Intrinsic Value the Key: $2,000 ( US ) An Ounce Seen as a Feasible Price

(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:16 - ID#254288)

Japanese Yen strong at 115.30 to the dollar. Last couple
of days New Zealand's market been making solid gains;
tonight its up about 1.98%.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:21 - ID#431200)
Nuestra Senora de Atocha. The Spanish galleon sank in September 1622
Off the Marquesas, small islands west of Key West. The find contained an estimated $400 million worth of gold and silver bars, coins and emeralds. Mel Fisher, Fabled Treasure Hunter, Dies At 7601:23 p.m Dec 20, 1998 Eastern By Ben Iannotta KEY WEST, Fla. ( Reuters ) - Treasure hunter Mel Fisher, a one-time chicken farmer whose discovery of sunken Spanish galleons made him a millionaire, died Saturday, a spokesman said Sunday. He was 76. The spokesman, Pat Clyne, said Fisher died of bladder cancer at his home in Key West at the southern tip of Florida. Pat Clyne said Fisher's ashes would be scattered over the waters near Key West where he made his greatest treasure find. Admirers gathered Sunday at his Mel Fisher Maritime Heritage Society Museum, a business he built into a leading tourist attraction. ``What Mel lived on was that American dream and being able to actually fulfill it. He let nothing stand in his way,'' Clyne said at Fisher's treasure shop at the museum in old town Key West. Fisher was a former California chicken farmer and dive shop owner who came to the Florida Keys in the early 1960s in search of Spanish treasures. Fisher's greatest triumph came in 1985 when his son, Kane, discovered the wreck of Nuestra Senora de Atocha. The Spanish galleon sank in September 1622 off the Marquesas, small islands west of Key West. ``Throw away the charts,'' Kane reportedly said over the marine radio, indicating that the mother lode had been found. The find contained an estimated $400 million worth of gold and silver bars, coins and emeralds. Fisher instantly became a legend in Key West and around the world.
Riches from the Atocha and other Fisher discoveries are now sold from Key West to Asia. Yet Fisher's treasure hunting did not come without a high price. In 1975, his son, Dirk, drowned inside a treasure hunting ship just days after discovering the first signs of the Atocha wreck. It would take the Fisher clan another decade to find the ``mother lode'' of gold and silver in the Atocha cargo. The elder Fisher also spent a substantial amount of time in court, fending off efforts by the state and federal governments to ``take his treasure,'' as he often put it. In 1997, the federal government sued Fisher for damaging sea grasses in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and won a $600,000 judgement that was being appealed at the time of the death. Last month, Fisher's company pleaded no contest to charges it sold fraudulent Spanish coins at its Key West shop. The company agreed to pay nearly $70,000 to 12 victims and maintain a $50,000 restitution account for three years. However, Fisher's company said in court papers that it was deceived by the supplier of the coins. Even in his later years, Fisher was a fixture in Key West. He could often be found in the evening talking with friends at a favorite dockside bar wearing a trademark gold doubloon around his neck. His supporters and admirers were undaunted by the controversies. ``Mel was my hero,'' said treasure seller Sherry Culpepper, who met Fisher 27 years ago while on spring break in Key West. ``He gave kids the belief that it was okay to have a dream,'' said long-time associate Geoff Chapman. Fisher was born in Hobart, Indiana, in 1922. He is survived by his wife of nearly 50 years, Dolores, known as Deo; his sons Kane, Kim and Terry; and his daughter, Taffi.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:24 - ID#287186)
JD@23:56 - re lefties & education & cooking the Golden Goose
Next time a lefty pronounces that people have a "right" to education or health care or food or etc. - we should get them to commit to fulfilling those "rights" by teaching, doctoring, farming, etc. for "free" or for whatever the recipients can afford to give. Ah-Aah they say! The rest of the affluent can pitch in. No they can't, because by the time all the "rights" are enumerated and all those who want their "rights" fulfilled come forward, there might just barely be enough teachers, farmers, doctors, etc. to minister to the needy. The pay for such ministering will be a collection tin passed around to the needy - for there will be only two types of folks - the affluent "needy" and the poverty-stricken "ministers" working their tails off to provide for them.
Our Golden Goose will have been cooked!

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:33 - ID#24135)
the bums and scoundrels party .. vote for me !!
for RJ ..
Top Posting on the Politicians.. Good idea .. a voter's
strike .
Ive never understood what we need a Government for
anyway .. GOP are BUMS .. Dems are BUMS .. GOP make
slightly better arguments .. and are somewhat less
transparently self serving .. maybe that makes them
more dangerous ..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 00:44 - ID#287186)
Ladybug@22:21 & Isure - re how long to stockpile for & where
YEARS! Regular groceries may return in 5 to 10 years - IF we are lucky!
Figuring two cans of tuna per week and chili and beans in between and supplemented by wild game - big game if any are left {and rabbits and squirrels ;-} if not} then with enough carbohydrate calories squirreled away I just might be able to make it. Vitamins will have to come from stockpiles of tablets, then later whatever veggies I can grow or find plus eating *everything* from those carcasses except the really crappy stuff. YUK - but it's survival. I figure to be cut off from everything - which might be fortunate since the rest of the world may be hell on Earth - at least until the population drops to ten percent {10%} of present and we get our wits and priorities back in order. {Actually 1% may be better, especially if it is the brighter rather than the beastier}

Isure - in Lake County, south of the ski resorts of Breckenridge, Vail, etc. which tonight finally are getting a little powder {a few inches at best but at least it is cold enough for them to make snow}. This community used to rely heavily on mining - now we cater to the service needs of the affluent who spit on us every chance they get. Don't get me wrong - some visitors are neat folks which I wish would move here since we could use their talents and outlook. But some are arrogant PIAs - like the companies that cater to them and employ my friends. In the end we will get their gold for they have to have food, water, fuel and protection. Our prices may be quite stiff.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:01 - ID#365190)
varying poll numbers

scroll down the page on the first link to "Should Clinton resign now?". no kidding. who's smoking the crack in CNN?

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:10 - ID#189232)
Spock says "empires just fall for no reason"
If you truly believe this, I can only assume that you do not
believe in the theory of "cause and effect", in which case
your time is wasted in reading Kitco, is it not?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:12 - ID#210114)
John Disney
"What the chap in question must mean is that we must provide health and education for those unable to pay for it. ( but for some reason
he doesnt want to say it like that ) "

I'm quite happy o say it like that. Yes, we should all pay for the things which everyone has a right to.

You talk of responsibility, all I am saying is that we all have a social respionsibility to each other.

I'm happy to pay my taxes. I've taken something out of the system by going to University so I'm happy to put something back in. I'm not a hypocrit; I practice what I preach.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:15 - ID#210114)
Who Cares??
I never said that empires fal for no reason. They fall because they become to big and costly to manage.

Nothing to do with the gold standard.

The British Empire fell, and they were on the gold standard for over 100 years. Didn't save their arse.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:17 - ID#45173)
Complaints Dept.
While we're bickering away here, I figured I'd throw in my own pet peave: the argument that gold is a commodity and not a monetary asset. This is nonsense. It is correct to say that gold is a commodity, as is any organic material that comes from the earth. This does not negate the reality that gold is and shall always be an monetary asset because of its particular physical properties.

To act as a monetary asset a commodity must:

1 ) Remain in relatively limited and steady supply to serve as a unit of account for long-term contracts. The 120,000 metric ton world supply of gold can, even with modern extraction techniques, increase by no more than 2500 tons or 2% per year. This narrows the field of commodities potential monetary asset candidates and leaves out all commodities but a few precious metals.

2 ) Be portable so that it can be used in exchange across geographic boundaries. Likewise, this leaves out all commodities but a few precious metals.

3 ) Be fungible; each unit must be identical to every other unit. Gold can be refined a specific purity and thus have a universally accepted value by weight. Likewise, this leaves out all commodities but a few precious metals.

4 ) Be easily divisible into sub-units of value. This leaves out some very hard precious metals.

5 ) Be recognisable as a store of value, having been used as a monetary asset by individuals throughout history who thus expect it to behave for the next 5000 years as it has for the past 5000 years. If a new commodity that had never been seen before were discovered on a distant planet and brought back to earth, it might meet all of the above criteria but no one would accept it as a monetary asset because without a history of relatively value no one can predict its future value. This requirement leaves out all commodities except gold.

No other material that meets these critria. That is why gold is a monetary asset. Not because the Treasury Dept. or Fidelity Investmetns says it is.

What detractors mean when they say gold is no longer a monetary asset is that governments and the financial services industry no longer USE gold as a monetary asset. Does this mean that it is NOT a monetary asset? If that were true, then heroin might be declared not a narcotic were the government and pharmaceutical industries to no longer classifying it as such. But heroin maintains its properties as a narcotic no matter how it is classified.

Gold is what it is, and all this fussing about how it's classified by governments and equity pushers is in the long run irrelevant.

How gold behaves as a monetary asset as currencies rise and fall in the ebb and tide of national economies is an interesting topic of debate. Generally speaking, as long as a nation's currency is strong, gold will not change in value relative to that currency. But currencies can suffer extreme and rapid changes. The reason the Chinese, for example, appreciate gold is that 7,000 continuous years of their history have formed a coherent cultural history that informs individuals that governments and currencies come and go, but gold remains gold throughout: in steady supply, portable, fungible, divisible, and recognisable.

Forget this at your peril.

That is all.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:21 - ID#43460)
Who Cares and Spock re empires
Try reading Thucydides' "History of the Pellopponesian War". Basically Athens fell because the gay politicians got offended when their key general told them they were unfit to lead. They had him brought back from the war a prisoner and once he was executed things kind of fell apart. No kidding.

Same for the third Punic War, except they weren't gay but rather believed in post-term abortions, ie infanticide, so they didn't have enough young men when they needed reserves. Carthage had a bad habit of offing its generals for trivial reasons as well.

Then Rome fell. You know the story of Caligula.


Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:24 - ID#189232)
Spock - Empires & Gold
I'll accept that simple lack of gold may not sink an empire.

But can an exmpire exist without a stable currency?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:29 - ID#210114)
Who Cares?
The crux of Buckler's arguement ( which began this whole debate ) was that America is declining because it is no longer on a gold standard.

So thank you for agreeing with me.

I agree with you; you can't run an empire without a stable currency. But that doesn't mean that you need gold to do it.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:29 - ID#391172)
Mr Spock
The problem with your solution tyo health care is a matter of record. Health insurance has provided a supply of money for services in advance of the service. Prepayment, it matters not at all if it's public or private, the effect is inflated prices, obviously. The drug companies have jumped on the wagon too. Cash is what it's all about.

Illegalize all forms of insurance public and private and the price of these services will plummet. Let everybody buy whatever drugs they want, wipe out protectionist professional laws.

The least government the hell with all the entitelments..the public has bought a bill of goods ( paternalizm ) and will wind up with oppression.

It's only logical

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:30 - ID#26498)
Some Financial Figures Mislead
Sunday December 20, 1:58 pm Eastern Time

Some Financial Figures Mislead

AP Business Writer

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- It may be true that numbers never lie, but every now and then you
might catch them exaggerating.

Just take a look back at the 1998 stock market and all the commotion it has caused.
Seven of the 10 biggest daily point declines in the history of the Dow Jones industrial
average, dating back more than a century, occurred in 1998.
( but.... )

( to spin, or not to spin... )
( that! is the question..... )

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:31 - ID#210114)
Alexander the Great was Gay.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:33 - ID#220325)
Ravenfire would you please type & repost your 19:50 on
The access was forbidden in the posted form.

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:34 - ID#189232)
Spock - You don't need gold to have a stable currency...
I don't need gas to make my car move either.

But it's a hell of a lot easier.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:34 - ID#210114)
EJ: Yep, let's get back to talking about gold
Yes, gold is and can be used as a monetary assett. But the fact remains that it is viewed less so now than at any other time in history.

Still worth holding, but not what it used to be.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:41 - ID#45173)
Some things that were shall never be again. Others shall be that never were. Still others were and shall be again. Finally, some things have always been and shall always be.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:45 - ID#391172)
Proves Gagnards point, Alexander was a a88hole as well.

I better go to bed, or I might fall off the stool, heh heh, sitting here drinking au-laits laced with whiskey heh heh Yippee.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:46 - ID#280443)
Gold... lost it's luster?
Has gold really lost it's luster? I hear it again and again.
"Gold *used* to be a monetary metal. But not anymore." Let me
tell you something: Fiat money has appeared many times before,
and the results have always been the same. Disaster and misery
for everybody--rich and poor alike--who invested their life in a
fiat monetary system!

Has gold lost it's luster? Nay. There are many reasons why gold
is highly valuable, but here's the key: it makes the ladies hot.
Most women prefer a gold bracelet over a platinum bracelet, even
if it's cheaper. Anyhow to make a long story short, it's
( 1 ) scarce, ( 2 ) pretty, and ( 3 ) satisfies the vanity-gene that
most women ( and a lot of men ) possess. So forget about all those
weird industrial uses, gold has a permanent place in mankind's
base animal mentality.

Woof woof!!!


(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:47 - ID#391172)
neer-do-well (Mr Spock) ID#391172:
"The problem with your solution tyo health care is a matter of record."

The US pays something like 10% of its GDP in health costs. It has no universal government run health system. ( Though Clinton tried )

Australia has a universal government run health system which costs 6% of GDP.

There is nothing inherently wrong with government. There is nothing inherently right with the private sector and vice versa.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:48 - ID#219363)
Nice post.

I did read however that silver is more prized in the middle east than gold is, also in I believe India, and that platinum is more prized in the far east than gold. Cultural differences. I kind of think it's all relative. People will always need something with the qualities you called out to be money, but I don't think gold is the only thing. I still remember the Indian tribe that used shells. The only way to create new money was to dive really deep into this certain body of water, something not many folks could do, and there were a limited number of these shells, they had a specific value. Jade and Turquois were also used as money if memory serves ( I could be mistaken about turquois ) . Obviously we couldn't go back to using shells as a monetary unit with the technology we have, it would be too easy to breed the little things and harvest their shells, but who knows, the same may hold true for gold sometime down the line. Even if it happens, there will always be a need for a unit of exchange. Gold might not be a commodity exactly, but it does act like cash with a commodity component. If it didn't, then the amount of gold being used in jewelry, or the number of mines and the statistics on the amount of gold they turn out wouldn't be a factor in gold's price. The miners unconsciously take on the role of the FED. There are also other features of money, or cash, ones that spring right to mind are that it should be anonymous, hard or impossible to counterfeit, etc. Even gold isn't the perfect cash, it has it's problems.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:49 - ID#45173)
Gold, a monetary commodity that depreciates in stable non-inflationary times, has lost the popularity contest with fiat currency denominated finincial instruments that appreciate or pay interest. But in times past and future, the current favorites will fall out of favor. At the moment in the future that gold is "it" and equities are at their lowest and deemed "dead" you will find me buying them in large quantities and selling some, albeit never all, of my gold.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 01:56 - ID#45173)
Yes, miners are a problem. But not as much of a problem as governments. All the mines in the world can only increase the gold money supply and thus debase gold as currency by 2% per year. Governments can increase the money supply infinitely. Since 1971 the system of fiat money management is in control. It has been thus before and not.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:07 - ID#153110)
"Louisiana ( which comprise one of the three foriegn entities incorporated into the U.S. Republic: California and District of Columbia being the other two ) "

Please provide references to statute or otherwise substantiate your statement above.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:09 - ID#219363)
I agree completely, governments can't screw up a currency pretty bad. I know they mean well when they increase the amount of money in circulation, increase or decrease it's velocity, etc, all that jazz, but I'd feel safer if the currency was just left alone, if they just let the markets do their thing. Maybe make 200 billion tokens and never make more except to replace broken ones, or ones that had been lost. All this jiggering with the currency to fight against the natural flow of things makes me nervous because it's so easy to screw it up and ruin the currency. If there were a certain number of tokens running around it would make prices fluctuate, something the FED tries to counter, but I'd rather the price of what I'm buying fluctuate than have the value of the currency fluctuate right along with the value of what I'm buying.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:11 - ID#367411)
Pd vs Pt
I keep looking at Pt/Pd, and something seems to be very wrong with my "fundamental understanding" vs. the actual market movement.


*Pd catalytic converters use twice as much PGM as Pt converters, so with Pd price = Pt price, the Pd converters should no longer be economically viable.

*There is a major Pd supply deficit, and it looks like if the manufacturers stick with Pd, someone is NOT GOING TO GET THEIR METAL this year.

*Pt converters should in theory be an option for users to reduce dependence on Pd & Russia.

Market Action:

*The Pd price is approaching and may well exceed that of Pt. Now just a $30 gap.

*Major catalyst manufacturer Engelhard has almost only long positions for Pd, and is heavily short Pt on the TOCOM.

*The US commercial COT are long Pd and short Pt.

Now, if the above fundamental understanding were correct, would users not be doing some buying of Pt & selling of Pd? What is wrong here?

I am currently long Pt & have not Pd position, but something tells me that things are not as they appear to be. What do you guys think??



Bill Buckler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:14 - ID#256381)
Spock - the crux of my argument is not that America is declining because it is not on a gold standard. America is declining because it has over extended itself geo-strategically and has substituted entitlements for property rights.

It is true that the abandonment of a Gold standard, leading to the completely untramelled and undisciplined creation of money, has made this possible. But it was not inevitable that America would take this course after abandoning Gold in 1971. They simply did.

Nor is it inevitable that America would persist on this path after the demise of the Soviet Union. But they have.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:15 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now.....
As always its been fun gentlemen.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:17 - ID#219363)
@Bill Buckler
You said "substituted entitlements for property rights", could you elaborate ?

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:19 - ID#24135)
Amazing how we agree ...
FOR Spock .. You said
"I'm happy to pay my taxes. I've taken something
out of the system by going to University so I'm
happy to put something back in. I'm not a hypocrit;
I practice what I preach."
I assume you mean that you went to University and
and didnt PAY for it .. Other people had to pay
by confiscation of their income via taxation ...
Well now I went to University and I DID have to pay
for it ..

..So We agree again .. I guess you SHOULD pay taxes if
you are one of those who milk the other taxpayers ..
.. since I paid for University and have never
benefitted from the system nor have I wished to do so
benefit at the expense of others .. should not have
to pay taxes .. thats fair enough dont you think ???

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:29 - ID#189232)
"substituted entitlements for property rights"
How do you get the middle class to buy into the Empire and support it?

By making them property owners.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:30 - ID#219363)
Farmer Goes Whole Hog With Giveaway
NEPONSET, Ill. ( AP ) -- Bringing home the bacon isn't worth it at today's prices, so hog farmer Don Brady is giving it away. Brady donated about 60 live hogs Sunday to families that needed extra money and food for the holidays. It was his grand exit from the pork business after 30 years. "Anybody that's hungry and wants to feed their kids for Christmas ( could ) come pick one up," Brady said. "It's a better gesture to give them to someone to feed their family than to give them away for sale." Hog prices are at their lowest in four decades because of oversupply, forcing many farmers to sell their hogs for less than the cost of raising them.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:30 - ID#210114)
John Disney: What's your point???
I'll say it again. I'm happy to pay my taxes so that we all benefit. Not just the wealthy few.

I don't see your point.

I'm not complaining. You are. Confiscation eh??

How were the roads payed for?

How were the hospitals paid for?

Were does it all come from?

You've NEVER ever benfitted from ANY public money??

Yeah right.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:41 - ID#225125)
@Bill Buckler
America is declining because it has over extended itself geo-strategically and has substituted entitlements for property rights. ... Nor is it inevitable that America would persist on this path after the demise of the Soviet Union. But they have. 

I have not expected a soul anywhere to understand this. How arrogant of me!

The truth to the matter is that, historically, any nation that believed that it had a right, obligation, or ability to play God with other nations affairs ( or economic competition of its own people ) would quickly go the way of the Dodo. This is the final, fatal disease that kills all great civilizations.

So here we are. US is not the The Last Remaining Superpower or The Greatest Nation on Earth but rather the last remaining dinosaur, a cancer stricken corpse.

So sad. The final chapter in the US history shall be some ugly war ( makes no difference if it is a civil war or a war against an external enemy real or imagined ) . Probably about half of the population will perish.

The FDR generation ( and their followers ) can be proud. The world goes to hell and their children will perish, but who cares as long as they die happy with a full set of false teeth ( and an RV ) paid for with someone elses money.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 02:50 - ID#24135)
Constant agreement .. how grand !
Spock ( John Disney: What's your point??? )
I'll say it again. I'm happy to pay my taxes so that
we all benefit. Not just the wealthy few.
I dont benefit from your taxes .. not even if
you say it again ..
I don't see your point.
I dont think you want to .
I'm not complaining. You are. Confiscation eh??
Why should you complain ??.. sounds like you've
been milking other people via confiscation
of their income via taxes
How were the roads payed for?
Sales tax on gasoline .. I agree with sales
taxes to fund public works
How were the hospitals paid for?
Private investment ..
Were does it all come from?
Dont understand that question
You've NEVER ever benfitted from ANY public
Ive driven on roads I paid for via sales taxes
Yeah right.
Yeah right ..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:00 - ID#257148)
The Meek Don't Want it.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:01 - ID#365190)
@snowbird re: my 19:50 yesterday
-- begin quote ---

Date: Sun Dec 20 1998 19:50
ravenfire ( i have seen the beginning of the end of ) ID#365190:

and its countenance was the form of websites that compare prices live online

hmmmm...... $15 billion dollar market cap.... hahahaha....

--- end ---

truly, however, web retailers riding on the new Internet investment mania are due for a horrendous downturn ... the only thing is: nobody knows exactly when that's gonna happen ...

try those websites out - compare the price of a book you recently bought.

there will be a small fortune ( not a big fortune ) for the developer ( s ) of software agents for individuals which allow live price comparisons. indeed. especially as competition in the market heats up.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:10 - ID#365190)
Russia/India/China strategic triangle?


(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:10 - ID#284255)
Namaste my friend
Yes it is one of the beautiful aspects of life at Kitco.
Such a confluence of opposing minds.
Many articulate thoughts flowing on the cyberwaves.

I hope you are right....

'Tis funny how we appreciate utilizing that which we don't have to pay for
And grumble at paying for what we don't.

Society and governments have created much for the common peolpe at the expense of the common people.

The infrastructure of society has been built from the coffers of society.
This is just and so we pay our taxes
Evading as much as we can in our narrow minded ways.

So has it been and so will it be in the future.
This is how society progresses.

Much to the chargrin of those who pay but don't feel that they consume their fair share...

Seems the world is full of misers who want the best that they can get.
Such is the greed of those that can afford togive a little.
While the truely poor give with generosity.

Ahhh!!!! the joys of Xmas.

Just to look into a childs eyes as they sparkle with pleasure.
Payment for my taxes indeed.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:14 - ID#284255)
Global Intelligence Update - a long post
Russia Ends its Flirtation with the West

In the midst of last week's chaos, a single, crucial, clear and
historically significant event took place. Russia's geopolitical
flirtation with the West finally came to an end. There will
undoubtedly be periods of reconciliation, cooperation and even
good will in the future. But a sudden and powerful consensus
emerged in Russia that held that Russia had been betrayed by the
United States over Iraq, and that the only way out of this
situation was for Russia to once again reassert itself as a great
power. What is most important in this view is that it is the
only issue on which all factions appear to agree. Apart from a
few, isolated pro-western liberals, the view from the office of
Boris Yeltsin to the most extreme nationalists and communists was
that the decision by the United States to bomb Iraq was
intolerable. It has the potential to be the foundation of a new
Russian political consensus, with critical consequences for the
international system.

The problem was not only that the United States bombed Iraq, but
that it did not even consult Russia. Indeed, that is one of the
most peculiar aspects of this attack and the one that led us not
to expect this attack. One of the operational principles of the
Clinton administration has been that it was unwilling to take
unilateral military action. Repeatedly, even at the cost of
substantial delays in initiating military operations, the Clinton
administration worked slowly and deliberately both to maintain a
broad coalition of international support and to remain within the
framework of international organizations, such as the UN and
NATO. The administration completely departed from this pattern
this time. The Russians, who normally are carefully informed and
consulted, found out about the attack from their own intelligence
services, according the Yeltsin's press spokesman. In fact, he
complained, while French President Chirac had told Yeltsin that
an attack was coming, he himself had given the wrong time,
indicating that the French weren't informed either.

The administration's position was that, after the last crisis,
the United States had warned Iraq that it would proceed without
further consultations if Baghdad violated its agreements. But
this warning had been given before in the aftermath of other
crises. Unless the United States had some intelligence warning
that the Iraqis were about to take some imminent action that had
to be prevented, there was no urgency in the timing. No one in
Washington has asserted an immediate threat from Saddam,
certainly nothing that would not have permitted 48 hours of
diplomatic consultation. Nevertheless, the United States needed
urgently to launch its strikes on Wednesday night, and therefore
violated its own avowed diplomatic norms.

The reason for the hurry-up strike is obvious. The effectiveness
of the attacks is minimal. Neither Saddam nor his weapons of
mass destruction have disappeared. The attacks achieved little
accept a 24 hour delay in the impeachment vote. But the failure
of the United States to consult with the Russians has, we think,
had a permanent effect. A process that has been underway for
several years has crystallized. Russia has been retreating from
both its liberal economic reforms and its pro-Western foreign
policy slowly for several years. The trend has accelerated since
Primakov, the former head of foreign intelligence for the KGB,
become Prime Minister. Now, the increasing anti-Americanism in
Russian foreign policy has been galvanized. It was something
that was waiting to happen. Nevertheless, it has happened now,
and we need to consider its meaning and consequence.

What must be understood is that a firestorm swept Moscow last
week. It was not only the government that was shocked by the air
strikes on Iraq. The rhetoric from across the Russian political
spectrum was startling. The lower-house of the Duma passed a
resolution that resolutely condemned "the barbaric bombing of the
Republic of Iraq," and said that it was an act of international
terrorism that posed a direct threat to international peace and
security. The resolution passed 394-2. Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor
of Moscow who is leading polls to succeed Yeltsin as President,
said, "In these conditions, we have to develop our defense
industry," and that, "Russia must be a great military and sea
power." According to Itar-Tass, he also said that "We need a
modern army, a reliable nuclear deterrence system. The
international community needs a strong Russia as a great power
that respects itself and other powers." Gen. Leonid Ivashov, the
head of the Defense Ministry's international military cooperation
department, said that Moscow "will be forced to change its
military-political course and may become the leader of a part of
the world community that disagrees with the ( U.S. ) dictate."
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov summed it up: "We condemn the
United States, and nobody should doubt our negative attitude."

Of particular interest here is the universality of the
condemnation and the nature of the rhetoric. Russia has been
deeply fragmented, a polity in search of a center. For the first
time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has found a
center around which virtually every major faction has been able
to rally: opposition to American hegemony. There is also a
growing consensus that Russia must somehow recover the
international greatness it lost. Izvestia ran an article
asserting that the past days simply prove that Russia is no
longer a superpower. The liberal newspaper Sevodnya asserted
that, "Russia has the same influence on world affairs as any
third-world country." The business daily Kommersant, lamented
that Russia had poor real-time intelligence from the region
because it has only one electronic intelligence satellite that
provides coverage only once every 24 hours. In addition, it
complained that the missile tracking station in Azerbaijan does
not track cruise missiles of the type used by the United States.
Now, Kommersant is normally much more interested in an IMF
tranche or in trade issues than in doing careful analysis of
Russian operational military capabilities. Everyone is upset.

There is a general sense that the international strategic decline
of Russia has gone too far and must be reversed. This
sensibility has become so strong now that it will, we think,
become not only a rallying point in Russia, but more important,
something from which no Russian aspirant for political power will
be willing to stray. Except for a minor handful of Russian
politicians, a dual commitment is emerging. First, there is a
commitment to reverse the decline in Russian power. Second,
there is a commitment to improve Russia's military posture.
Anyone not committed to this is not going to be a political

This evolution has, as we have long argued, been inevitable. On
December 29, 1996, in our 1997 Forecast, we wrote that: "The
Russians have given away their empire in return for very
little... Yeltsin, unfortunately, has delivered little order and
less greatness -- and Russia is sick of it." Liberalism in
Russia has been a disaster without any silver lining. The
average Russian is poorer today than he was under the Soviets,
and much less secure. Perhaps worst of all, Russia does indeed
have the influence of a third world country. The United States
would never have ignored the Soviet Union in deciding to attack
Iraq, as it has ignored Russia. It is absolutely essential for
non-Russians to understand just how intolerable this indifference
is to the Russian psyche.

There is a real parallel here between Russia today and Weimar
Germany. The collapse of Imperial Germany ushered in a period of
economic decline, desperate poverty, massive inequality and a
sense of the impotence of the liberal regime not only in economic
life but also in international affairs. The combination of
poverty and the sense of being treated with contempt by the
international community created uncontrollable social forces
committed not only to the abandonment of political and economic
liberalism, but also to a massive readjustment in the
international system. National Socialism was the outcome.

Russia is in precisely the same position today. Liberalization
had created economic disarray: poverty, inequality, and
hopelessness. But what is going to galvanize the Russians
psychologically is their loss of international standing. Bill
Clinton rubbed their faces in the fact that it really doesn't
much matter what Russia thinks. Focused on his own problems, he
failed to calculate the impact of his actions on Russia. It is
not that this evolution wouldn't have taken place anyway.
Clinton's action produced a galvanic revelation. It drove home
American contempt for Russia's views and brought together the
entire Russian polity around a single issue: the return of
Russian greatness.

The reconstruction of Russia's military is inevitable. Economic
dislocation does not block this. Remember that Germany
revitalized its economy with a rearmament program. In only five
years Germany went from essentially disarmed to being able to
overawe its enemies. Russia's armed forces are in far better
shape today than Germany's were in 1933. Although in disarray,
its research and development has continued and it has substantial
technologies in the pipeline as well as a massive standing force.
Revitalizing those forces and increasing defense production could
be precisely what is needed to kick-start the Russian economy.
It worked for Germany. At various points, it worked for the
United States and other countries as well. Since nothing else is
working for Russia, they may as well give it a try. We think
they will.

Even today's Russian armed forces, if merely paid and fed, pose a
real challenge to its neighbors. We believe that one of the
things that will flow out of this consensus is an increased
determination to recreate the old Soviet Union, in the sense of
reintegrating the fragments into a whole. There is already a
great deal of economic integration and dependency. It is
inevitable that the new Russian nationalists will want to create
an integrated political framework over that. It will use
economic power to achieve its ends. It will also use existing
military forces to force coordination and reintegration. There
is not much talk of reintegration yet. There will be.

The Iraq issue is a good place to start. Primakov, who knows the
Arab world from his KGB days, can use his pro-Iraqi stance to
increase Russian influence among Islamic factions in the
breakaway fragments of the former Soviet Union. By aligning
Russia with Iraq, Moscow becomes a friend of Moslems rather than
an enemy. This not only increases Russian influence with
opposition groups in countries like Kazakhstan, it increases the
probability that Moslem countries will use their influence to
move these groups into a pro-Moscow stance.

But the real test will come in the West. The situation in the
Baltic countries is intolerable to Russia. Kaliningrad, part of
Russia, is cut off because of Baltic independence. Aligned with
the West, these countries jeopardize Russian presence in the
Baltic. More important, with Poland entering NATO, these
countries become the only buffers between St. Petersburg and
NATO. Russia cannot allow this to happen. The Baltics, like the
Ukraine, are part of the Russian sphere of influence. However,
since 1989, the Baltics have had the luxury of neglecting power
politics. This should not be mistaken for a permanent condition.
While western investment flowed, Russia was motivated to forego
its national security interests. Now that investment has
stopped, Russia will resume its natural search for national
security, especially as this will also make for good domestic

This will have serious repercussions for Europe in general and
Germany in particular. German officials were, to put it
tolerantly, babbling incoherently in the face of the Washington-
Moscow crisis. As if trying to convince himself, Defense
Minister Rudolf Scharping said, "Everyone, even the United States
and Great Britain, felt that what was happening in Iraq had
nothing to do with NATO." When asked whether Germany would
participate in attacks on Iraq, he said that, "We haven't been
asked, but we gave clear political support, and that's where
things will stay." Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said that he
"expressed solidarity with the United Nations," as well as with
the United States and Britain. Taken together, the German
position seems to be that Germany supports everyone and is
confident that nothing means anything and that they sincerely
hope that all this will go away.

Germany's anxiety is completely justified. Not only is Germany
massively exposed on Russian loans that are not going to get paid
any time soon, if at all, but the reemergence of the Red Army
along the Baltic countries' frontiers or worse, along the Polish
border, is a dreadful German problem. Russian nationalism is
Germany's worst nightmare. The only thing worse would be a
Franco-Russian alliance, which certainly seems to be taking
shape. According to United Press International, a French
diplomat in Amman stated that France "is in constant consultation
with Russian leaders." He also went on to say that France could
never support any demands to change the Iraqi regime by force and
from outside in harmony with its constitution and international
laws, saying "this was why Paris did not take part in the latest
military operations against Iraq."

Now obviously, a Franco-Russian arrangement in 1999 is very
different from one in 1938 or 1914. Many things have changed.
Nevertheless, France's growing anti-Americanism and links to an
anti-American Russia will pose a serious challenge not only for
Germany, but also for the European Union. It will pose questions
for the SDP-Green coalition that it would be best not to have to
answer. It will force open the question of the relationship
between a unified economic apparatus and Europe's foreign policy,
a question that the EU is not at all ready to confront. Finally,
the inclusion of China in this alignment affects both the global
balance of power and the structure of Asian regional politics. On
a question of fundamental importance to the United States, Iraq,
a coalition consisting of France, China and Russia has emerged
very publicly, with Russia playing the leading, active role.
This is a matter of great significance. It is far more important
than the future of Iraq.

In this sense, the U.S. attack on Iraq has had a thoroughly
unintended consequence. It has triggered a response inside of
Russia that will have lasting effect. This response will change
Russian defense policy and, in turn, will provide Russia with
opportunities to assert itself along its current frontiers,
increasing tensions in Europe and Central Asia dramatically. But
the global effect will be the most significant. Since 1989, the
world has lived in an unnatural condition of imbalance, with only
one major power. This could not long endure. As in 1972, when
the U.S. and China aligned themselves to contain the Soviet
Union, a new alignment designed to contain the United States is
emerging. Including France and China, its center of gravity is a
re-energized Russia. This has been developing for a long time.
What is most interesting is that it was an act of carelessness on
the part of the United States that provided the trigger for a sea
change in Russian politics, a sea change that will reshape the
international system.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:18 - ID#258302)

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:24 - ID#257148)
Hey, there, Barry. Still got problems with your caps lock?

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:26 - ID#24135)
Global Intelligence ..
for Sharefin ..
a fine article .. Looks like they feel
impeachment was what the strike was
about .. those tomahawks were bought
with people's taxes .. somehow I dont
think they represent the progress of
society .. society was progressing
nicely enough until the introduction of
the income tax ..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 03:39 - ID#257148)
THe more I learn, the more I agree with you, the world was a better place before Income Tax.

What a cunning stunt that was...the fruit of The Great War..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:03 - ID#257148)
Thanx for the Robt E Keen link, you'll not be suprised that I have his early albums on vinyl.
And the party never ends...

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:06 - ID#24135)
exploitation of the meek ..
Salty ..
Glad to hear that .. I was afraid you were becoming
spokesman for the meek ... I wanted that job .. It
pays VERY WELL ..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:14 - ID#153110)
Income Tax in America: 1913. It was a tax proposed to reign in corporations, a tax to make corporations more sharing and caring. A soak the rich tax. Guess who got soaked.

It's a joke on all these socialist sods who happily think they are people supporting services and benefits for society when actually they are just shareholder "individuals" in Australia ( or whatever ) , Incorporated, being taxed on income in return for their "individual" ( i.e. artificial person or corporate ) privileges ( entitlements ) .

It's also a joke on commnetators like Buckler who don't know enough of the law to see the moralities and legalities are the driving force behind it all. The most dishonest man is the easiest mark for a con.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:26 - ID#24135)
Buckler was clearly correct ..
Salty ..
yes .. the main problem with income tax is not so
much its distributive quality from rich to poor .. or
productive to non-productive ( depending your viewpoint ) .
but how it fuelled the growth of Government .. then
came the end of the link to gold and the last
remaining restraint to central government power.
we now have a US government that self rightously
blasts hell out of Iraq to "protect the world from
Saddam" .. ha ha while really just trying to avoid
the impeachment of a degenerate President and curtail
his ( and his wife's ) quest for power .. This
crum bum may have killed a few thousand people for
no good reason other than to protect his sad @ss.
all in the guise of protecting the region .. amd that
little nanny Blair tags along ( I cannot take that
smiling little twit ) .
we have a citizenry that is concerned with their
rights to things ( that others pay for ) .. health
education .. why stop there ?? how about a right to
a sportscar?? .. or a right to a million bucks?? ..
.. we have a sorry state of affairs here ..

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:27 - ID#257148)
The meek
No spokesman, me, for the meek. Just unattributed grafitti.

Reminiscent of:

The meek shall inherit the earth but not the mineral rights.
Jean Paul Getty ( attributed )


those words that are mine shall never be attributed....

Better a has bean, then a never fecking wuzzer.

Plagiarists_R_ US

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:31 - ID#24135)
Perfect Con Job
for mozel ..
right on .. these guys actually think
they are getting something for nothing..
as they slowly craft their own chains ..

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:35 - ID#24135)
I love that ..
salty .

The meek shall inherit the earth but not the mineral
Jean Paul Getty ( attributed )

thats fecking brulyent

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:41 - ID#257148)
eggsackly! THe meeek don wan it. But, the real worry is not the meek, but the Welfare Dependent. I mean the word "beneficiary" is interesting. We have "beneficiaries" in Noo silund. They think that they are the RIGHTFUL recipients of gobmints generosity, and never think that its tax-paying schmucks like me whose actually doing the generosity thing via my taxes. And not when some "beneficiary" is stealing my car, or robbing my house, as happened when we lived on the farm.

I happily give to those I like and those I dont. I's a generous soul ( come on, Billy Gates, give yer evil billions away to make the dollars pure ) and I give here and there. It jest p!sses me orf when the fecking gobmint organisations just grow and grow and grow, an I pay for gobmint retirement incomes with today's tax payments.


was this foul income tax thingee before the Great War? Or after, like the ahhhem, "freedom" document ....the passport. A passport, I am told, was unnecessary before WWI.

Gettin back to basics

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:47 - ID#257148)
Urr Duhh
And, of course, I missed the whole point of my last post. the origin of Beneficiary.

As is "bene" which means "good" or "well". And "facere" as in "to do." Whence "manu"=hand: facture=to do; ergo manufacture= to make with the hands, and "beneficiary" = to make better.

And I's damned if they appreciate it.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:54 - ID#185448)
Im on air again, dunno, how long, as the connection between me and the world is just fixed with seladhesive tape and an old MW-radio, or something like that.
Received email, Bill&Monica will be glued to a tomahawk cruise-missile and launched TODAY.
Gidday, as some friend of mine would say.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:55 - ID#257148)
And I thought I had nothing to say tonight.......
I just gotta post this chant from my childhood

Good. Better. Best
Never let it rest.
Until the good is better,
And the better, best.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 04:55 - ID#24135)
Income Tax ..
Salty ..
see Genrul Mozel post ..
commenced in 1913 .. subsequently
gobmont made companies collect the
taxes for them via the "withholding"
process .. This came later and I
dont know when eggsackly .. late
20s I would guess.
Some guys ( see spock ) love this
as they enjoy the illusion that they
are getting something for nothing and
are also being wonderful giving and
caring people .. I believe that there
are lower costs ways of achieving all
this condition while at the same time
not providing big brother the
wherewithall to enslave you forever.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:04 - ID#173274)
@the scene
Well, I think everyone who works for a living simply ought to get up and leave. Either get on that welfare ride and drag the damn system to its knees or all find a nice new place to live amongst each other of like work habits and form a new government to their own liking. Either method will cause the last nails to be driven into that socialist coffin.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:09 - ID#33182)
LTCM rescue firms make 11% return
LONDON ( AFX ) - The consortium of financial institutions that rescued
Long-Term Capital Management from bankruptcy has so far made a return of 11 pct on the 3.625 bln usd it put forward to bail out the hedge fund in September, the Financial Times reported, citing people close to the situation.

The financial institutions could see some of their capital returned to them in 1999 as a result of this positive performance, it said.

However, this will depend on the continuation of the gradual unwinding of
the fund's positions and its total leverage as well as the improved performance of its portfolio.

The 11 pct return on the consortium's investment, from the end of September to the end of November, is net of the fees it has paid to LTCM partners and staff for helping to manage the fund's investments, the paper said.

In November, LTCM gained approximately 21 pct as credit market spreads
contracted. Most of LTCM's positions were in trades on spreads in the fixed income markets.

The fund is also said to have paid down all of a 500 mln usd credit
facility led by Chase Manhattan Bank.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:11 - ID#24135)
I'll drink to that ..
Eldorado ..
In fact .. I did that ..

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:11 - ID#33182)
LTCM - 11% over 2 months

(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:12 - ID#257148)
They tell me it's Winter. But I'm wearing a T-shirt. I don't know.............
Drill a hole through the ice@Danube. I have e-mailed the important bits of your exile.

Felicitations to you and your family. count

lamb's tails and mountain oysters.

{Hands up who don't know mountain oysters}


(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:17 - ID#153110)
@Eldorado @Rewards For Caring About Other People Sharing
IRS Handbook of Delegation orders, page 1229-91 ( 1-17-83 ) , paragraph

"Recommend an additional minetary award of $10,000 ( total $35,000 ) to
the President through Treasury and OPM."

What this is referring to is a payment to the President of the United
States for every "indictment" for tax evasion "within" the United
States. Since there are hundreds of such indicments each year, this represents a rather hefty payment ( tax free ) . Just in case you worry about the "legal defense" bills of poor Clinton. ( N.B. R.O.R.'s of America )

And please note the date, you "republicans", of this delagation order:
1983. So Reagan got his share, and Bush, and Nixon, etc.
The President is not the only one to get this slice of the Pie, District
Directors and Regional Heads are also in on the deal

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:33 - ID#33182)
South Korea - flexing its muscles ?
South Korean warship fires warning shots at Japanese fishing

TOKYO ( AP ) - A South Korean warship fired several warning shots near a Japanese tuna boat today in waters between Japan and Korea, Japan's coast guard said.
The incident took place about six miles east of where South Korean naval ships chased and sank a North Korean speedboat in a gunbattle on Friday, said Shinji Sezaki, a coast guard spokesman.

Several shots landed about 330 feet from the boat of 41-year-old Eiji Yamamoto, but the Japanese fisherman was unhurt, Sezaki said.

When contacted by Japan's Maritime Safety Agency, the South Korean navy confirmed that it had fired warning shots near Yamamoto's 4.9-ton vessel, he said.

South Korean authorities say a warship first ordered the Japanese boat to stop signaling with its light and whistle.

But the tuna-fishing boat did not obey, said Koichi Nagano, spokesman for the Maritime Safety Agency. Yamamoto, who was alone on the boat, told the Japanese coast guard that he didn't notice the order, Nagano said.

Yamamoto told officials that the the South Korean vessel chased him away from a spot 55 miles southwest of Izuhara in Japan's Nagasaki Prefecture before firing the shots.

In Friday's incident, South Korean naval ships and aircraft sank a North Korean speedboat of a type used to drop off or pick up spies.

South Korean ships are now searching for a suspected mother ship that they believe launched the speedboat toward the South Korean shore.

Japan's coast guard warned Japanese fishing boats to be careful in the Korean Strait between Japan's southern main island of Kyushu and South Korea.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:41 - ID#173274)
@the scene
JD -- You may have moved, but you didn't do 'that'. I think a few million of us like minded types would have to move into a state or country and become its preponderance of 'voters'.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 05:46 - ID#173274)
@the scene
mozel -- You could generate a recording of that to be constantly repeated in the ears of the likes of the RORs of the world, and they STILL wouldn't get it! HAR! Or perhaps they are getting a cut of it too???

(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:27 - ID#153102)
Of course, they are though not as directly. Look for my post on News of De Jure Government and follow the link to teamlaw to find people and knowledge.

Then, someday, you will understand more fully what it means when you read "Citizenship is a term of municipal law".

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:42 - ID#24135)
okay already ..
genrul Mozel ..
Not quite .. but I did the best I could .
Give me a spot on the map where this
beauteous eldorado exists and Im off in a

(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:52 - ID#39857)
Reuters. US FED announces 50% of gold holdings will be sold and they see $225 as bottom dollar. Swiss before yanks which leaves the POMS in the cold.END.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:54 - ID#252391)
The week ahead
Seems Europe is off to a very positive start. Asia was firm with Korea, if you haven't noticed, almost to the highs of the year. At some point we'll hear that word "recovery." S&Ps almost unchanged which is pretty good considering the support expiration usually gives stocks to be unwound the following Monday.

Gold is off 50 cents ( surprised? ) silver about unchanged, and PD off $5. Gold stocks in South Africa breaking down further , now below the 900 lovel on the JSE All Gold. Dollar is flat and the bonds are off 1/8th on, I suppose the reverse of flight to quality.

Oil is the weakest thing out there - naturally. Cold weather is supposedly on the way to the Northeast, tax loss selling ends on the 24th of December. I'd say if these over sold underowned assets groups ( the oil service companies and golds ) are going to find a bottom this year it'll be by the end of this week. That's all the further my crystal ball is looking out on this deflationary world.

If I didn't know what time of year it was or what the company's represented whose charts make up the gold and oil indexes I'd say any bounce should be sold. That being heritic, I won't say that.

Looking for a small slightly lower range in the metal and oil stocks for Monday within the context of a continuing downtrend.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:55 - ID#29048)
Do you have a link for the Fed sales?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 06:59 - ID#252391)
Hedgehog - what is the purpose of your false newsflash.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:14 - ID#252391)
To Speed
Apparently, Hedgehog doesn't have a link or a reason for his flase report.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:17 - ID#333127)
tax selling
Last day in US is the 31st not 24th. Render unto US what is his.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:19 - ID#252391)
Rube - do I have it wrong??
The 24th is the last day for tax loss selling. Gains can be posted this the last day??

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:20 - ID#411440)
Fed gold sales: Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Fed needs
Congressional approval for sales of Federal Reserve Board gold
stockpiles. Having used the lease sales of gold to drive the
POG under the 290 support level, the Fed is nowing using rumor
to drive POG down to the 280 level and below. If they succeed,
the US Federal Reserve will have defended the dollar by driving
the world into depression.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:25 - ID#252391)
Rhody - agree 100%
That's why I don't believe even a rumor exists about FED gold sales. By this time even the brains at the FED have to realize that the problem now is deflation and economic contraction not inflation - unless, of course they know something we don't know.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:27 - ID#333127)
tax gains
Dates are same for both gains and losses.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:27 - ID#411440)
@ all: Can anyone verify that Fed sale of US gold report?
If the Fed drives gold to $225, every pm mine on this planet
will shut down, and the BIS will be just barely in surplus
territory. They need $208 gold to balance their books.
It will be interesting to see if the BIS lets the Fed drive
gold that low. But in the trying, they are going to ruin a
lot of people, including me.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:34 - ID#434108)
random quotes, thoughts, misgivings, & magic
H.D. Thoreau:
The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation,
( until the internet, than it is - even more so ) .

A. Lincoln:
You can not help the wage-earner
by tearing down the wage-payer
( until the statist's 'solution' of -
big-brother, & the 20th century's grovel at the trough ) .

L. von-Mises:
Government, is the only agency
that can take a useful commodity -
like paper,
and slap ink on it;
and thus make it -
totally worthless .

T. Jefferson:
If the American people
ever allow
national banking system & government
money - .......
first by inflation,
and then by deflation; then -
one day,
they will wake - up


upon the continent
their fathers conquered.

Ever loyal, forgiving, and risking sharing ... again ....
in our uniquely individual, as well as
mutual and community effort,
to find the truth of gold's behavior & movement -

in this particular time....

and our universal space.....

I warmly wish you....
and our - collective:

every good, and held
hope ....

that we might risk
'dying to the old'
birthing to the new,
with unconditional and open
hearts and minds.

I salute, acknowledge, and honor, in the tradition and triumph of gold-money, for all peoples, everywhere;
in this season of
celebration, for these peoples, and for far more,
than I could ever define, or know - in this life-time,
I embrace each, every, & all of you,
just as we are, and just as we are not.

I recognize, in the understanding & use of gold-money,
and in the unity of of honoring the humble Spirit -
of eternal,
and ever unfolding diversity
that lives, and breathes, and has it's being
in each and every one of us
of all huiman-kind.

May all of us,
granted to be among, within, and all around & over...
this community of earth.....

risk & stretch
and reach out, and in, once more:

to encourage and help our 'neighbors',
to heal our earth, as ourselves; and

to purify our rivers, oceans and seas,
as we cleans ourselves.

May all peoples,
of all nations, races, tribes, and tribulations,
find a common bond of understanding, tolerance, and
peace of resolution,
through the

unfettered and boundless freedom of the individual....
..... fulfilled - in his and/or her dreams....

as gold-based, gold-backed, and gold-convertible money
under-girds, and lays the foundation of...... -
of such a world, birthing now.

We are
at the turning-point
and dawn,
of this new, and boundless

May we,
all - each & every one,
learn to honor one another,

as we learn to embrace & use,
the only universal,
and democratic......
and freedom-insuring money
of this world..... -


May the Spirit of
mutual respect,
and creative fulfillment...

be yours....
uniting you -
with you,
and with all people,

now, and always.

David Blair Macrory

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:36 - ID#39857)
jims & Speed..........its real.
Glow Worm is proactive in the haze that is the GOLD MARKET and being an operative for ASIO he feels OZ is the scape-goat when all the time the US have been selling off gold to maintain their position as GLOBAL TERRORIST

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:44 - ID#29048)
You posted the Reuters name on your announcement. Was this because you have found a news wire item, or was it to lend credibility to your own opinion?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:50 - ID#26793)
@Skinny, All: Taiwan says it will buy stocks to boost the market.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 07:54 - ID#339274)
A / C dollar
Both want to go down.Australian to .60 or lower and the Canadian
to test .63.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:00 - ID#411440)
@ ALL re Fed gold sales: I just did a search and found
no report by Reuters or anyone else re proposed Fed. Reserve board
sales of half of US gold reserves.

If this is a legit report, then the world financial crisis just
got incredibly ugly.

Half of the US Fed gold reserves is one quarter to one half of
the short overhang, but the threat of sales might drive the
POG down to where the funds could cover at a profit. Maybe this
has been the plan all along.

Hedgehog: Where did you pick up that report from Reuter's?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:01 - ID#39857) said it all beautifully like a butterfly
winging it for the first time.........salute........
heaven will create discord for those who need it.......yehhhh.....

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:07 - ID#29048)
The market says...
Gold is up a dollar.

Sans Fed sales, the outlook for pms is not good. Impeachment, the bombing of Iraq, and the dollar falling should have pushed the POG up. I fear that the expected bump up due to the Euro will also fail. If gold does not rally in January, who will stay in gold?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:08 - ID#399147)
I just scanned Reuters, found nothing. Enuf said?

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:11 - ID#24135)
medic !!
HEDGEHOG has flipped out !!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:18 - ID#20359)
Clintler as security risk...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:21 - ID#320136)
I believe I can rightly assert that when the acrophobic
state of the markets finally meets up with reality --
quarter after quarter of falling earnings and profits,
increasing layoffs and reduced profit margins due to
ever increasing overproduction of goods, U.S savings rate--
how much below zero can it really go?? -- continued imbalance
of trade for the US... when this bubble finally bursts
therein the fuse will be lit for the POG. Plain and

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:23 - ID#20359)
I strongly suggest that the Senators that are screaming for censure are without
doubt being preassured intensely with FBI that loving, bring people together, healing group in the White House...uh huh...

Goldilocks and the three BEARS
(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:25 - ID#431247)
US Fed Gold Sales
I thought the big conspiracy was that Fort Know was empty. If this is true then what are they going to sell ?? More Paper Gold ??

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:26 - ID#20359)
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...common sense...what a concept...individual responsibility...
"That's not fear," explained Bennett, "that's intelligent planning based on sound information. Everyone of us has to take the responsibility for gathering his or her own information and then making personal decisions.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:32 - ID#347457)
@Gold Sale
Believe me, it's not true! Hedgehog made it up or confused the news with the news about the first round approval for Swiss sale ( which was in the news last week ) .

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:40 - ID#26793)
London morning gold news

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:40 - ID#20359)
PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO USDA sees threat to food supply Suggests preparing for Y2K crisis

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:49 - ID#249244)
sharefin, 3:14
Very accurate discription of current Russian situation.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 08:50 - ID#411440)
Federal Gold Reserves: Although over 50 CBs lease gold,
I would lay long odds that the Fed. has been the most active of
the CBs in this regard. There is also the tiny matter of the
discrepancy between the lease rate quotes as calculated by
Dabchick from the Financial Times data, and the figures quoted
weekly by the World Gold Council. The WGC lease rates are
always lower. This suggests that at least one CB is offering
gold below the market for leased gold. Want to bet that its
the FRB? If the Fed has been leasing gold cheaper than other
CBs ( some CBs refuse to lease at under 1% rates ) then it also
follows that the Fed is exposed to a great deal of that 8000 to
14000 ton short overhang ( should defaults occur ) .

It may indeed be true that there is not much gold left in
Fort Knox. It may be filled instead by IOU lease agreements and
T-Bills being held as collateral for gold loans.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:01 - ID#316193)
Allan Sloan, NEWSWEEK, Thinks The Impeachment is a Non-Event With Investments

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:02 - ID#119358)
@rooters wire service........
a fool and his words, he doth too soon impart.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:04 - ID#317193)
Comex.....a false image...
Delivery notices for gold and silver contracts for December are each around 5,000 contracts...if warehouse stocks meant anything there would be a massive squeeze...obviously they do not.

The conclusion...tis a game of smoke and mirrors. Such games usually end in disaster...the question is...for who?

I'll hold my gold and silver but prices could still go lower to shake out more longs.


Doctor Gold
(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:07 - ID#272136)
Goldbugs to Kitco....Come in are open.....
Near Live Quotes are Near Dead....Get on the Program!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:15 - ID#411259)
..... The Holidays are upon us .....

And it is now that the big boys, in no small measure, tend to run off these last couple-o-weeks of the year to count their ill or otherwise gotten gains.

It is in these quiet periods that a small buyer - or seller - can step into this market and make it move with a single moderately sized order.

Just because it is quiet does not mean these metals will not move.

They will


The US has never, nor will never, sell any of its gold.

Rumors to the contrary are cut from whatever imaginary cloth these stories are always cut from: Fond wishes or trembling fears of maniacal machinations do not a market make.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:19 - ID#119358)
@T.YOung........our dear, loved ones.........
I, too, will hold my gold as if she were my third daughter. She is very confident and lovely, no?

Salud! and now I must take leave to my office where I shall produce one barrel of oil at a cost of two barrels of oil. Thanks to the wisemen@kitcO .........for pointing this out to this simple okie.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:26 - ID#233199)
If gold moves in a vacuum will any one hear it?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:27 - ID#424140)
With the Iraq "war" over, and the House impeachment over the shorts have decided that gold will go down and this is the time to jump on the short wagon. I suspect we'll see a lot of false rumors and "news" stories from that camp.

Of course there is also year end tax sale considerations, but I suspect the fact that bonds are dropping and money supply growing along with a weakening dollar will soon enough have it's effect.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:28 - ID#421269)
The Fed and Gold

Gentlemen you have to go no further than the commissioned report on CB gold sales to find the answer to your Question. We at Kitco have chosen to ignore this report while we should know full well that such reports are done only when the government has already taken action.

I choose to believe that investor demand would be able to contain the Feds. intentions to destroy gold and the mining industry. It has cost me dearly. The Fed will not let gold rise, it cannot because to do so would bring about the destruction of the Federal Reserve and every debt ridden
currency in the world.

If the stock market were to fall, the resulting loss of revenues would explode the deficit and the result would be total economic collapse. This may happen but it will be after every avenue is exausted , because when it does the result will be the destruction of the Fed and most of the governments of the world.

The game is huge , and my physical gold will not be sold, but I am afraid that my PM equities are slowly fading into oblivion.

Donot let variations in figures decieve you , the result will be the same, 330or 230 it makes no difference.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:28 - ID#350194)
@Cyclist and Rhody
Cyclist - You are such a bearer of good tidings for all Canadians and Australians this Christmas week! So I guess we should go and spend every last penny before ir drops even lower, eh? ;- )
Rhody - How are you to be ruined? As long as you pay cash for your stash, and then if Gold and Silver track lower due to a general deflation, your stash will ( should ) still buy the same amount of goods as today. At least YOU will have a stash to spend, not like many others who are maxed out on their credit TODAY. Go in TO very SLOW this MO, just thought Yo and MOinTO ought to Know!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:33 - ID#421269)
Fed Link
Use this one instead.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:46 - ID#421269)
Loan it Then Sell it

Is this not happening everyday?

Another involves lending all remaining government gold in every period and selling government gold gradually after some future time. Government uses might require gold ownership but not gold storage. If so, any loss in welfare from government uses would be much smaller under the policy involving lending and selling gradually.

Read between the lines, read with your head and not your heart.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:50 - ID#33182)
More Bad News from Japan
Japan's November trade surplus shrank by 15% as exports and imports both contracted. exports to Asia were especially hard hit falling 27%. This is very bad for the Japanese economy since exports are the only healthy sector left. Japanese banks are also scrambling to improve their financial positions, and much of this entails closing down overseas branches and repatriating assets. Many industrial corporations are sure to follow as Japanese bank affiliates overseas are their overseas division's primary source of credit. This will mean huge flows of capital into Japan in order to fix the ailing economy. Even the government may be forced to use some of its Dollar stash as its fund raising capabilities diminish.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 09:56 - ID#339274)
long 17 1/2

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:04 - ID#350194)
1998 Wrap-up - Long Term Gold Chart Still Looking Negative
Here's some Gold stat's:
close 96 369.60
high 97 367.00
low 97 283.00
close 97 290.20
high 98 313.40
low 98 273.60
Now take a look at a graph starting in Jan. 1997 'til now. At present it is not a pretty picture. There is a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows for these entire two years. To get positive again we need to first of all convincingly breech $300-303 for at least a couple of days. To get REALLY positive the market must take out 1998's high of $313.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:09 - ID#317193)
Dow 9000....
At least I kept my hat and horn...ANOTHER Dow 9000 party...I love this game!

Hold on to your....


(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:13 - ID#432148)
DJ to Gold ratio... at previous ceilings 8961/289.4 = 30.96
plus gold and platinum have made exact 62% retracements of last runups.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:13 - ID#254112)
@Isure: Right now the FED can control the price of Gold
kind of lefthanded. But the FED will not be able to control the economic cycles. O.K., the PPT is active like hell since many months. But all they can do is to create a mentality which helps to keep the dipsters on their reality removed nirvana trip.
Gold will not be the cause for the coming crash of the financial markets, but it will be the most important solution for the coming financial mess.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:16 - ID#317193)
You are now witnessing history...just when everyone knows they are right the market will prove them wrong. We live in "interesting times".

Back to work...


(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:22 - ID#255226)
Trading - SnP
If the March hits 1250 today or tomorrow buy puts for a short term swing down. Its to soon for a major top.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:23 - ID#20359)
Its not a job, its unconstitutional...but its an adventure...Yowzer!...and with YOUR money...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:26 - ID#20359)
the Law is the Law...even for Jack's biggest ass...

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:28 - ID#33182)
Big gains for dollar after quiet day so far

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:35 - ID#20359)
International outrage will fuel domestic outrage...the world will not stand for Clintler's Kingdom-
There was also "no question" that the air attacks were unlawful. Lord Healey said: "It is illegal to attack with bombs targets in a sovereign country without direct authorisation from the Security Council."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:37 - ID#401460)
Future for US Credit Card Debt?
onday, 21 December 1998 4:51 ( GMT )

( UPI Spotlight )
Man cuts off feet to collect insurance money
SEOUL, South Korea, Dec. 21 ( UPI ) - A 51-year old man cut off his own feet in a desperate attempt to repay huge debts by collecting insurance money. The man had asked an accomplice to sever his two feet after taking out 24 insurance policies amounting to $1.6 million.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:45 - ID#377211)
Clinton's approval rating has now jumped 10 points to 73 percent
Thanks to the Republican party hypocrisy and meanness.

Amazing. Public loves Clinton and realizes its assessment is that Republicans are mean hypocrites. Some of whom ( Hyde, Livingston ) have also lied and cheated, under their Religious Oath, to their God and wives at the time they got married. Livingston is a coward and could not face the same public derision that has been inflicted to Clinton and, in my view, misrepresented his departure ( nothing is like it seems in politics! ) . He had several affairs ( we are told ) , probably some still untold to his family ( Clinton too by the way! )  that is probably the reason he quit!

Amazing that this Republican party has now succeeded in self-destructing just all by itself ( !Good job! How smart are those guys! ) while Clinton stays on with a markedly improved public approval rating. How myopic are these Republicans. They are focused on Clinton and themselves, despite being elected by the People or our country and claim the Constitution as their religion ( a Constitution written up by some who still believed in slavery and still did not recognized American Indians as human beings ) . They have abandonned the job they were elected for.

Republican party is now in disarray, fissured between moderates and extremists. One of my good republican friend cant take it any longer and will, today, change his registration to Independent after being fed up with Republican hypocrisy, meanness and lack of effectiveness in Congress. Sad story, but that is what happens to stiff exclusive extremists such as extreme rightists and leftists for that matter. The Bushes and Bill Weld are the answer for the Republican party. Look how Weld has done in super democratic Massachusetts. That is why this country is such a great nation. Democracy rules ultimately. Just some observations, from an Independent myself.

But I agree, Clinton should probably resign now, and that could be a good move for our country and for himself... and may be for gold? Who knows!

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:47 - ID#33182)
Dollar up almost 0.75% vs dmark in last 50 minutes

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:52 - ID#344389)
XAU 64.08
If 64 is taken out, 60 is next

(Mon Dec 21 1998 10:53 - ID#339274)
Sold 17 7/16,oils and drillers weak.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:00 - ID#372228)
Gaston2 - Clinton
Hitler also had a 98% approval rating...but that didn't make him a good person or one who had the people's best interest at heart!!! If Clinton is let off without loss of office, then there will be two justice for the common man to get screwed...and one for Bill Clinton to do as he chooses...and if he gets away with this, does that mean that the bribes he took from the Chinese are OK as well...and if the Chinese use the military weapontry which he sold them to bomb our cities and kill our people OK as well????

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:18 - ID#401460)

You may be right; but I am glad someone has the guts to stand up and hold the BASTARD accountable. I am just sorry they can't use Whitewater, TravelGate, FBI Files, murders, ChinaGate, Sexual Harassment, Illegal Attack on another Nation, ETC. to put the Clinton Team in Jail for Treason and other High Crimes.

Hillary will run for President, we are looking at 10 more years of this Bull Shit. What will remain of the US in 10 years. The American people, like the Germans in 29, are so friggen dumb, that they will believe anything.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:18 - ID#339274)
Back in 17 5/16

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:19 - ID#377211)
trader_vic Do I like Clinton? No!
I don't like Clinton, and I am not part of the 73% approving his job!. I never liked him. I am criticizing the Republican Party's fumble. How can you be so stupid as to loose ground when the truth is on your side...
The answer: inept egotistic politicians. Most of them lawyers who are not looking good rightnow. All types are in the governement: from the stiff, the religious, and the liar. Not good!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:26 - ID#401460)

Part of the problem is that the Reagan/Bush Arms for Contras went through Arkansas, with drugs coming back through the Ark National Guard Base. Oliver North ETC. They are all dirty except for the few Republican Congressmen.

Remember Clinton is Blackmailing them all. He has FBI files on all of them, Democrats as well as Republicans His attorney also represents "The Emquirer" ETC.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:26 - ID#45173)
US Growth to fall by 50% in 1999 versus 1998, so the DOW jumps 145 point
Imf Forecasts U.S. Economic Growth +3.6 Pct In 1998, +1.8 Pct In 1999

Now that's what I call "value investing"!

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:27 - ID#344389)
XAU 63.50
Final support above spike bootm is 63.48, then 60.64,
and 58.91

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:30 - ID#421269)
Dow + 160
Look for Dow 10000 shortly. man what a great country, and what great leadership. If we nuke Russia this sucker should hit 15000 mid year.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:31 - ID#339274)
exited 17 5/16,staying aside until tomorrow morning

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:34 - ID#269409)
Swiss Gold dumping, can't be good for POG
News the Swiss people would vote next April on laws linked to eventual gold sales was enough to spook a thin pre-Christmas market, knocking spot prices below $290.00 support.

..........Dealers ignored Swiss National Bank ( SNB ) reassurances it would not sell metal before 2000 even if voters approved constitutional changes severing the Swiss franc's gold link.

.........."The market's so thin, I don't think it takes much to move it," said one analyst.

..........The Swiss government plans to re-value the 2,590 tonnes of gold reserves on the SNB's books and gradually sell off the half not needed for monetary policy. This would raise money for a humanitarian fund and general budget purposes.

.........But sales, if approved, would be measured once they started, the bank has said in the past, bringing perhaps 100 tonnes to market each year.

........."The Swiss selling will be the equivalent of a new gold producer the size of Russia in the market," said the analyst.

........."Our view is that things are going to be very weak next year anyway and here we are with another supply side story."

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:38 - ID#33182)
Swiss bonds futures jumped 200 basis points higher

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:41 - ID#222107)
Those Republicans!
Those nasty Republicans! I'm certain they sent Paula Jones to meet with Clinton alone just so he could expose his penis to her! How can anyone say that this type of person should be president?

Clinton has lied to a grand jury, intentionally obstructed an investigation, and has proven that he's sexually perverted. I'll forgive Clinton AFTER hes thrown out of office.
A man that would make the type of sexual advances that Clinton did to Paula Jones and Kathleen Wiley ( and who knows else ) has major moral and psychological problems. He should not remain as president. If he were in ANY other position in government or business, he would have been fired long ago.

Whats up with the POG today? Down another three bucks? Any news?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:48 - ID#258302)

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:52 - ID#404312)
Gaston-Highrise etc

One reason the Republicans can lose with truth
theirside is that the Democrats in the major news outlets are running Clinton's propaganda machine and stiffling any news that might reveal the true Clinton--the violence against Kathleen Willey, for instance.

Highrise, I agree with your 1929 Germany comparison. Throw in the 1917 Russian experience too. Inept and/or cowardly leadership--nice guys--who allow devils to wrest control of the state for their evil purpose.

What I think is going on, ultimately, is that God is working to take this country down. 2 Thess describes a judgement by God where He sends a strong delusion so that people believe a lie. Other biblical example show where when the people reject calls for repentance from evil ways, God removes from them the ability to think straight ( Rom 1 ) . This progressive stupidity makes for electoral insanity and eventual self-destruction and/or directed catastrophe

(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:55 - ID#288186)
Hello Cage Rattler! I just saw your last post about Swiss bonds jumping.
What deductions can we make, if any, from this? I haven't a clue.
TIA, Fox-man

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 11:58 - ID#33184)
U.S. slaps trade sanctions on Europe in food fight
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - Escalating a nasty trade fight with the European Union over bananas, the United States today announced it will slap hundreds of millions of dollars of punitive tariffs on products ranging from sheep's milk cheese to cashmere sweaters.

U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky announced today that the United States was exercising its rights under the World Trade Organization to impose penalties on the 15-nation Europe Union for, in the U.S. view, unfairly blocking U.S. companies from selling bananas from Latin America to Europe.

The penalties - 100 percent tariffs - will effectively double the price to American consumers of targeted items. They could go into effect as soon as Feb. 2, or as late as March 3, depending on whether the European Union elects to arbitrate the content of the list.

Barshefsky said the sanctions list was announced after six years of failed attempts to get Europe to comply with rulings by the World Trade Organization and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The tariffs, she said, are intended to offset ``the damage caused by the EU''s discriminatory banana regime.''

She said ``our door remains open to a negotiated solution'' but as recently as Friday a meeting between Sir Leon Brittan, the European Union's trade minister, and President Clinton and other administration officials failed to produce an agreement.

``Over the course of six years, the European Union has ignored its obligations,'' said Peter Scher, special trade ambassador. ``The action we are announcing today ... is intended to send a clear and unambiguous message that the United States will expect countries to meet their obligations, just as we meet ours.''

He said the products of Denmark and the Netherlands will be exempted from penalties because they were the only nations who voted against the European Union's banana rules, which the U.S. contends favor bananas from the Caribbean and Africa, marketed by European countries.

``We had U.S. companies ... which over the course of 100 years developed this business of exporting Latin American bananas to Europe,'' Scher said. ``The EU decided essentially they wanted to take that business away and give it to European companies ... and they were willing to violate WTO rules to do it.''

Among the items targeted for 100 percent tariffs are: Pecorino cheese made from sheep's milk, sweet biscuits, bath salts, candles, handbags, felt paper, folding cartons, greeting cards, lithographs, cashmere sweaters, cotton bed linen, batteries for electric vehicles, coffee and tea makers and chandeliers.

Scher said the list was compiled with an eye toward ``minimizing any negative impact on U.S. jobs ... while at the same time inflicting cost on the EU for failing to meet their obligations.''

Scher declined to estimate the total dollar amount of the imports affected or to say which countries in Europe would be most affected.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:05 - ID#269409)
@ Spock.... Socialism vs. Anarchy
Earlier you said;

"Date: Mon Dec 21 1998 01:12
Spock ( John Disney ) ID#210114:
Copyright  1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"What the chap in question must mean is that we must provide health and education for those unable to pay for it. ( but for some reason
he doesnt want to say it like that ) "

I'm quite happy o say it like that. Yes, we should all pay for the things which everyone has a right to. You talk of responsibility, all I am saying is that we all have a social respionsibility to each other.
I'm happy to pay my taxes."

Just a couple point;

There is a position between your own and JD's. There is no "Absolute" right to things like million dollar health procedures, University educations. etc.... for those who do little or nothing to earn these benefits.

On the other hand, JD's ideal anachistic world of "No Govt." would certainly be an unmitigated disastor. It's within that type of environment that man's true, self centered, and evil nature emerges in a more "pure" form. Some govt., rule of law, and assistive programs benefit all in society, even those who do not directly gain moree monetarily from them, than what they "contribute".

One needs look only as far as JD's place of residence, the RSA, to see what it's like to live in a place where ineffectual govt. exists. Bands of assasins running wild and killing farmers to steal their farms and goods...with absolutely no repurcussions whatsoever. The fastest growing AIDS epidemic anywhere in the world with the exception of their neighboring countries... with little or no response from the countries health care system.

I don't think that's the kind of society most of us want to live in.

And if we want to make this a Gold related discussion, I'd be loathe at this point, to invest heavily "long" in Gold mining shares from a place like RSA... considering the risks to the infrasturcture of that country and it's citiznry.

It's only a matter of time before we see clearly the results of a neutered / ineffective govt. in that area. As we have in so many other places heretofore.

Socialism has been discredited and does not work. Because without self interest, motivation to achieve is lost. In the same way, anarchy doesn't work..because self interest without rule of law, degenerates quickly into evil, which is unfortunately the nature of man in general, and is especially viscous in a few.

There is a middle ground.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:07 - ID#348286)
So, the Dow is going into a year-end rally, and the traders are killing commodities ( and Gold ) . Merry Christmas ......

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:15 - ID#33184)
@Fox-man: Swiss bonds
Japanese government bonds ( JGBs ) plunged in London trade, after the government announced yesterday it will stop buying JGBs next year.
Probably in sympathy with JGB's with both JGB's and SNB's being the major "low yielders".

The move in part also represents good will towards the baby Euro but, also shows how emotional the market becomes during the silly season. Note that volumes are also extremely thin.

All in all, I'm not sure how much can be read into it regarding gold !

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:18 - ID#348286)
@Some good news form USAGOLD - but hey, Who ever Reads Good News?
In other news, the Bank of Portugal announced that it saw "no reason to change the bank's policy of maintaining a substantial part of its reserves in gold after the country enters single currency," according to the Reuters London report. Portugal could be signaling a widespread policy in Europe upon which we have commented here on numerous occasions. It is unlikely that any central bank in the European Union will sell gold after the January 1 euro launch because the yellow metal plays such a central and crucial role in monetary policy.

Bridge News reports this morning that "The French government has authorized the minting of gold and silver euro coins for collectors, the government's official journal said today. The Finance and Economy Ministries will decide on the exact details of the coins, which could have a face value of 1, 10 or 100 euros and will be minted as commemorative coins." There were no details.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:20 - ID#401460)

Yes, the Word was true then and it is true now.

Steel Imports
Food fight with Europe.
New Euro $
Europe ignored durring recent bombing.
World Deflation
Earnings to fall in 99
Yet, Dow 10000

Interesting, I think the stage has been set.

But as long as everyone thinks things are Great, things will remain OK until a major negative is incountered. IMHO this will not happen until unbelievable market highs are reached. Because, the present adminsitration shows that misleading the public and lying about earnings will pay off and have no repercussions ( sp ) . Kind of like Japan.

With all of the announced layoffs, unemployment still falling, go figure, more funny numbers from the Clintons.

They will create a Holy War if necessary to remain in power. They will have to inflate the economy somehow if they are going to prevent a depression.

I would guess they will let Gold rise if it serves their purpose - right now it doesn't.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:22 - ID#34459)
TimeTo Buy AU!
Contrary opinion alone dictates a buy signal at this time. Even the Kitco crew these last few weeks have turned negative on the AU. We now have a head and shoulders bottom formation in place with todays action as well as the XAU is sitting exactly at the Fibbonnacci .618 retracement level at the 63 area of the advance earlier this fall. We should see no lower than 60.45 before a reversal takes place. If you can buy them here and watch them go up, then we are truly going to see a much lower price in 1999 for Au and gold stocks. I have been a gold bug since 1963, a chartist of the gold stocks since 1965, we are at or near a major turning point. If these price levels fail to hold and the AU and the AU stocks move very much lower, CASH and CASH only will be KING in the future.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:22 - ID#257148)
Jumping Beans
I'm damn sure your name ain't BARUCH HA SHEM either. So how's your caps lock?
It's rude to shout, old bean. Take heart.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:22 - ID#273112)
@Gaston2 ... the true hypocrites: The Democrats
This isn't about sex, despite the Democrat's use of Hitler/Goebbels "Big Lie" technique. Despite the White House use of stolen FBI files to attempt to blackmail members of Congress; for his shame and sins, at least Livingston has enough sense of love for America to resign.

Not Clinton. Clinton who threw our sons and daughters lives into risk in Iraq soley for the sake of trying to save his loathesome political career. Such a "man" would not stoop at other, even more desperate things...

To exclaim: "Oh! Republicans have had affairs ... filthy hypocrites!" is to swallow the intellectual diversion prepared for your weak mind, designed to lead you from consideration of the FACTS, and into a swamp of EMOTION, from which, once mired therein, you are the willing pawn of those who would use you for their own ends.

This is and remains about perjury, obstruction of justice and Clinton's fundamental violation of his Oath of Office.

Clinton's crime is a crime against every American man, woman and child: for a man who claims to care about women and children, he has shown utter disain and contempt: Got 21-year old interns? Who are then the true hypocrites, Gaston-2?

The Democrats, who, in their bestial lust for raw, naked Power, would defend even Hitler if he claimed to be a Democrat, CLAIMED "to care about the children", CLAIMED to support women's rights, CLAIMED to be for "the common man".

What, Gaston-2, WOULD be sufficient evidence for you to say "why, yes, remove Clinton from office"? I assert there is NOTHING, in your sick double-think system of beliefs. Nothing. Not rape, not child abuse, not anything for which you, and the "free" press, and the Democratic National Party would not find a reason to excuse. Nothing.

so, Gaston-2, liberal Democrat in name only, I salute you: hypocrite

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:35 - ID#389387)
Shields Up, Ms. Barshevsky! Bring helm to 1930 mark depression!

For over 60 years, the Congress and the President have recognized that the negotiations and implementation of trade agreements require special cooperation. In the aftermath of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 and the Depression, both the Congress and the President recognized that only by working closely together could trade barriers be torn down and markets opened to U.S. goods. This new attitude was first reflected in the Reciprocal Trade Agreements of 1934, and has remained part of U.S. trade law ever since.
In recent years, as tariffs became less of an obstacle to trade, and as many of our trading partners sought to protect their domestic markets by erecting non-tariff barriers, the scope of trade negotiations broadened. The Ford Administration and Congress created fast track to accommodate this broader trade agenda. It was first engaged in the Trade Act of 1974 to deal with the Tokyo Round negotiations called for in the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs ( GATT ) . Fast track procedures for approving trade agreements have been renewed by Congress in 1979, 1984, 1988, 1991 and most recently in 1993. As a result, presidents have had fast track negotiating authority continuously from January 1975 until April 1994, with a brief hiatus for eight months in 1988. 

Nah Forget what I just said. Now this is what I want to do

The United States earlier announced plans to impose punitive duties on ``hundreds of millions of dollars'' worth of imports from the 15-nation EU in a dispute over access to the EU market for U.S. banana firms and Latin American producers.
The 100 percent duties, which would go into effect on February 1 at the earliest, target a variety of consumer goods from the EU, ranging from sweet biscuits to chandeliers.
``I very much regret that the U.S. has gone ahead and published this list of sanctions today and hope that even now wiser cousels will prevail and the U.S. will find a way of responding to our desire to resolve this issue lawfully and amicably,'' Brittan said.
Brittan said the EU would accelerate its moves in the Geneva-based WTO to legally challenge Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act which was invoked by Washington to pledge sanctions. ``It is time to take action against the pernicious and unlawful effect of this wholly unilateral legislation,'' he said.

Something smacks horribly wrong here.
Something Smacks-Horribly wrong here.
Something Smooks-Hawibly wrang here.
Something Smoots-Hawley again here.

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:37 - ID#344389)
XAU & Stocks
Cobra-do your anticipate a general equity
rout if the XAU fails to hold the 60 area?
The long bond is not looking too

Charleston Gold Bug
(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:38 - ID#344389)
XAU & Stocks
Cobra-do your anticipate a general equity
rout if the XAU fails to hold the 60 area?
The long bond is not looking too

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:42 - ID#269409)
@ Isure
Re your comment that poor economic news on corporate profits, is met with a soaring DOW, why not?

After all, they tell us that Clinton's approval ratings soared over the weekend as he was being impeached by the house, and as he also proceeded throughout the week to be the first president in history to shamelessly misuse the U.S. military to commit wholesale killing for no other purpose than to save his own ass.

I'm quite sure that if it comes to light Clinton has been molesting children, stealing funds from charities, raping old women, and ordering "hits" using cronies from Arkansas.... than he will FINALLY achieve a 100% approval rating. At least that's what the Democrat controlled media will tell us.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:47 - ID#25257)
The Spirit of Lies has again taken hold of this phoney market. The fact that this market can sustain itself during a war + presidential impeachment should be enough to show that we are dealing with a super-natural foe. My prayer to The Lord of Hosts is that He will raise up a Standard by using any of the 100 Senators who exhibits Godly wisdom to: "Get these Lying Carnies out of our White House".

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:49 - ID#221124)
Value Investing
Ants and flies are more intelligent then men!!!

Where I live ( Western Australia ) flies are a veritable pest and ants an ever recurring nuisance. And they learn! Flies are most persistent when you got both hand full, they sit on your face, crawl into your eyes etc. and shaking your head or waving them away is pointless, they are back immediately. Ants are even more intelligent. You put ant poison down where they are coming from only to watch them reappear from the tiniest crack. They no longer bother to come in from the outside, but manage to come in from between the cavity in the walls, underneath the floor, window frames etc.

And what do we fools do???

Well, if you still with me, read ahead.

With stunned disbelief I watched the recovering of the US markets, especially the internet stocks. Here in Aussiland you can get shares which have a PE of less than 10 and a dividend yield of between 4 and 7%, even gold stocks!!!, but those stocks are going nowhere, while YHOO has reached an alltime high, stopping me out of my puts. All we should have done was to buy YHOO, INTL, MSFT and IBM about 6 to 12 month ago and we all would have been able to have the biggest party ever. But because we are so old fashioned value investors most of us missed out on the biggest bull market in history ( well, I at least had the bulk of my shares whilst not in the above mentioned stocks but at least not in gold, ... bloody INTL, I sold at around 90odd after they had recovered only to watch them to go to, now let me see, about 122odd. ) One thing I have learned is the Tao, if you are pushed, pull, if you are pulled, push, in trading terms, go with the trend. What is really frustrating is that I loaded up with all sort of puts before the last correction, sort of 10 fold my money, sold then enough to get my money back plus some profit and waited for the final crash. Well..., at least I got my money back! Anyway, I believe that the party is about to end and that quite a few who are dreaming of an early retirement are in for a rude awakening, so, be on the alert. At least we all should have acquired the ability to make money even in the worst bear market. I was right when I suspected that the last correction was not going to wait til October when everyone was expecting it. I can't get rid of the suspicion that the real crash won't be happening next October either, will re-load with puts at the latest when the DOW hits 10.000 ( and YHOO 300 ) or MetaStock/Omnitrader issue a weekly sell signal, or the Pitbull's Inverstor's Stock Market Crash Index his -10, see This site seems to be pretty good, warned both of the correction as well as the recovery. Should change my handle to The Frustrated Trader.

John Disney, something for you ( and all South Africa Lovers ) ..., also pretty useful when a cop comes up to your window to ticket you for speeding...

Don't get me wrong, I love SA too.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:50 - ID#194311)
Hiliary Clinton = US's Eva Peron
Be careful what you wish for America.

A entirely new and dangerous twist has begun in US history. The President is impeached and the Whitehouse/media declare victory over self-righteousness. The rot is well entrenched. Expect the US to go the way of S.America, in 5 years time it will be just another BANANA republic, goes around comes around.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:50 - ID#33184)
Interesting analysis linking gold to M2

(Mon Dec 21 1998 12:59 - ID#404312)

I really, really like the looks of the daily silver chart. It is nearly identical to several chart patterns for silver in the past at the time major lows. Check out the late 92 early 93 chart. An even better match is the weekly silver from 1931-33. The move to a new low by just a few cents is followed by a sharp rise back above the old support level. A few days/weeks of testing lows before another bigger move up to or past nearterm resistance. If the pattern holds we should finish the low testing today ( maybe the holidays will delay the move up ) and mve up quickly to the 10/1 high of 5.48 ( mar ) .

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:03 - ID#269409)
Risks to global economy, IMF
Even anti- IMF GoldBugs will appreciate the final item in this IMF produced list of risks.

Monday December 21, 12:38 pm Eastern Time

IMF cites five key risks to global economy in 1999

WASHINGTON, Dec 21 ( Reuters ) - Fears of global economic meltdown have eased
but risks remain weighted on the downside entering 1999, the International Monetary
Fund said in its latest world economic outlook issued on Monday.

The IMF cited five key risks to world prospects:

-- Some emerging market countries will have difficulties making debt payments if capital inflows do not rise from low
levels seen since August. That could force stressed economies to try to seek trade improvements by weakening domestic
demand to curb imports and by depreciating their currencies to boost exports, or both;

-- Japan's economic outlook remains particularly uncertain, and questions remain about the adequacy and implementation
of recent initiatives to turn the economy around.

The IMF said there was a clear risk that confidence and consumer demand would remain depressed if the restructuring
and recapitalization of Japan's banking sector were delayed or pushed through in a way that failed to persuade financial
markets that Japanese officials were serious about solving the banking crisis;

-- Big swings in exchange rates among currencies of large industrial countries could be destabilizing. While some
further appreciation of the yen and the euro against the U.S. dollar were needed in the medium term to get current
account balances into balance, further appreciation of the yen in the short term would be ``particularly unhelpful'' for
fostering stability;

-- Protectionist trade pressures could be fanned as countries hurt by the Asian crisis seek to protect their trade positions,
hurting world growth prospects;

-- A strong recovery in stock markets from recent turmoil, especially in the United States, has pushed equity prices to
levels that may not be sustainable if corporate earnings disappoint investors or if inflation and interest rates rise.

Such a development could curb vital consumer spending, much of which has been fueled by the booming stock market,
and so curb the stimulus for two-thirds of national activity in the world's largest economy.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:03 - ID#288186)
Hello Cobra! I always look forward to reading your posts. Did you mean to
say "lower prices in '99" or should it read "higher prices in '99"?
TIA, Fox-man

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:05 - ID#350145)
Gold should rise substantially next year - my prediction: Euro & Trade Deficit
The Euro ( an equal currency ) and trade deficit ( too many dollars out there ) should cause a long sustained fall in the dollar ( against most currencies ) which will cause a corresponding rise in gold and silver. Gold is on the bottom in dollar terms and the dollar is on the top. As the dollar falls gold becomes even cheaper in other currencies ( elementary my dear Watson ) .

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:18 - ID#33184)
@mole - alternative strategy re euro/dollar from another forex trader
FWIW, "From January,1-st I'm selling the buck against the euro untill I see 6-7% USD depreciation against the new currency. Than I'm expecting a range trading within a wide range for at least a year ( the level 100 on usd/jpy should be reached in this process too ) . Then it would be better to go long and leave the position open as a contribution to the grandchildren's future even for those who doesn't have a child yet."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:18 - ID#287148)
Occasional thoughts
Forgive me please for lurking here for a time, seems so impolite, but I just got a password. I think that you are most of you very clever. I am not so witty, but occasionally have a thought worth voicing and hope to join you here at those moments. For many days, weeks, however, I am stunned to ( almost ) silence. Words instead from Yossarian, Catch-22:

"When I look up, I see people cashing in. I don't see heaven or saints or angels. I see people cashing in on every decent impulse and every human tragedy. . . it doesn't really upset me. What does upset me though, is that they think I'm a sucker. They think that they're smart, and that the rest of us are dumb. And, you know, the thought occurs to me right now, for the first time, that maybe they're right."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:21 - ID#350145)
Clintons approval @ 73% - up 10% highest ever and higher than Regan-ever
This is no longer about Clinton! It is about dangerous Republicans like Bob ( White Supremist ) Barr and Tom ( the hammer ) Delay, Dick Army and the many Republicans who looked mean and myopic during impeachment hearings. Long live American Democracy. The people have spoken and they have told the Republicans - TAKE A HIKE. You are dangerous to our freedom and we do not trust you to run our country.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:23 - ID#34459)
AU and The AU Stocks!
Am having a tuff time getting in and out of here again today, seems on Sundays it works fine, during the week nothing but delays getting access.
We are at support in the XAU at 63.35, this is .618 pullback. If AU makes new contract lows and XAU falls much under 60 then Deflation in EVERYTHING is ahead, especially the general stock equities which are where all the inflation has happened in the last few years, CASH will be the order of the day as save your ass at any cost will be the order of the day.XAU chart looks like the best buy pattern setup in a long time. It's sold out, AU chart also looks good here. London P.M. daily close charts has held up well. This is what I watch, Londom PM gold. This is real CASH money changing hands and REAL physical GOLD changing hands. The chart is constructive. We all know the regular equities are extremly over valued, When the turn comes these markets should move in oposite directions bigtime.. Time wise.... I have to believe it's close upon us.Hope I can get in and out of here this week ,it's been tough.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:27 - ID#288186)
Welcome aboard Sadie! There's always room for "occasional thoughts" to
be posted. I'm the same way. I participate mostly for the knowledge.
As you can see, there's lot's of knowledge here at kitco! We are mostly
drawn to this site because we know things aren't right in our financial
system, and PM's are soon to become ""VERY NOTICED" I hope!
Have a good day.....Fox-man

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:32 - ID#20359)
Sadie, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you and yours...Yossarian is one of my favorite
characters of all time...Happy Holidays...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:34 - ID#339274)
third time in at 17 1/4,and last time for today : )

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:34 - ID#227238)
Your assertion is correct but the timing is off. It will likely take more than 5 years to see the real effects of US devolution.

Events of the past couple of weeks have effectively marginalized the US both domestically and internationally.

After 3 military strikes, Iraq has proven that US military might will be wielded in a timid, politically correct fashion .... and is not to be feared.

Domestically it's even more dreadful. ..... interesting times.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:37 - ID#254130)
Is Clinton a threat to national security?
Former chairman of Joint Chiefs
raises issue in letter to
congressional leaders
By Ed Oliver
 1998
Admiral Thomas H. Moorer, a former
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote
to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay two
days before the House began debate on
impeachment questioning whether President
Clinton represents a threat to national
security, WorldNetDaily has learned.

The letter sent to DeLay added comments to
Moorer's December 1st testimony to the
House Judiciary Committee on the
"corrosive effects on the military's code of
honor and the rule of law of having a
commander-in-chief who has admitted
misleading the nation."
"My additional concern is one which bothers
many who care about our nation's security,"
he wrote. "It is a concern for the effect
which the pattern of deception by the
president has had upon our military
capability, and the effect it may have in the
future if not checked. There is mounting
evidence that this misleading of the nation is
not confined to this one matter of sexual
transgression and the ensuing cover-up. If
the lack of veracity is allowed to stand
unpunished, will not the president be
emboldened to assume that he has
successfully hamstrung the constitutional
check and balance upon his power which
would prevent betrayal of the country's
Moorer referred specifically to the questions
surrounding the Clinton's relationship with
China, and the evidence that sensitive
technology has been permitted to flow to
Beijing during an administration brought to
power, in part, by massive, still-unexplained,
and uninvestigated campaign contributions
from Chinese sources.
"It is clear from the present proceedings that
the president parcels out bits of information
and misdirects the press so as to prevent full
comprehension by the general public,"
Moorer wrote. "This same technique, it now
appears, has been used in matters which
threaten national security. I speak particularly
of the question of breaching our defenses by
granting the Chinese Communist regime ( one
of brutal oppression based upon the
coercion of human labor and the deprivation
of freedom ) , access to our technology, the
secrets of our strategy, and a controlling
presence in our most vital choke point -- the
Isthmus of Panama. That strategic position
alone enables this brutal regime, which seeks
dominance over us, to neutralize our entire
forward-deployed military capability. See my
testimony before the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, copy enclosed, on this
latter point. The White House is not
forthcoming on these matters."
( much more... )

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:39 - ID#33184)
How long can this last ?
In Omaha, cash hogs are 10 cents a lb while farmers in local markets are getting 7 cents. But in the "Information Age" economy, pork chops are $3.30 a lb.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:46 - ID#227238)
Welcome. .... An appropriate quote for our times. Next refer to the post from "mole" directly above your's. Those who feel as he does, are now in the catbird seat and will get exactly what they wish for. But, I don't think it will be as pleasant as they expect.

Folks, it's time to begin a strategic withdrawl. Any hope for a renewal of personal liberty in the western world, is an exercise in foolishness.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:48 - ID#25257)
@AUwolf, kiwi, Earl
Gee...You don't think El Presidente who "THE POLLS" say is favored by over 70% of the Merkin people would stoop so low as to have our troops sent into battle just to unhook his sorry carcass? My! No wonder the Merkin peoples told the Republicans to "TAKE A HIKE" for being so Myopic and Meanspirited to this beautiful man.
Thanks for the CASE IN POINT. QED

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:53 - ID#288186)
Current price update....Feb Gold @ 289.90 // Mar Silver @ 4.90
I'm long on Mar Silver at 4.91, with a stop in at 4.86

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:56 - ID#24135)
I tought I taw a wocketMAN
Little Gritty Bum .. Id almost forgotten all about
you .. and there you are .. as misguided as ever ..
.. what would I do without you little fella ..
thank you so much for your wonderful thoughts .. Ill
sleep with them under my pillow .. nighty nite ..
actually Id prefer spocks socialism to your half
@ss "middle way" .. Couple of slices of bread and I
got me a baloney sausage sandwich off your last
post. and tell me more about RSA .. I love that
kinda cr@p.

John Disney
(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:56 - ID#24135)
I tought I taw a wocketMAN
Little Gritty Bum .. Id almost forgotten all about
you .. and there you are .. as misguided as ever ..
.. what would I do without you little fella ..
thank you so much for your wonderful thoughts .. Ill
sleep with them under my pillow .. nighty nite ..
actually Id prefer spocks socialism to your half
@ss "middle way" .. Couple of slices of bread and I
got me a baloney sausage sandwich off your last
post. and tell me more about RSA .. I love that
kinda cr@p.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 13:59 - ID#389387)
@mole - What does the approval rating of a former Treas Sec mean anyway?
Dear Mr. mole,
-You seem to embrace the legitimacy of the 73% approval rating. I do not.
-Can you please define dangerous in the context of acts committed by Bob Barr and Tom Delay, Dick Army . I do not know of any.
-Can you please refrain from using ad hominem in describing those views that you so vigorously oppose. I will not either.
-Please refrain from superficial judgements based on physical appearances ( looked mean and myopic ) . I find this trait the mark of one who hates based on appearances.
-The United States of America is a Constitutional Republic and not a democracy. I promise not to forget this.
-I agree that some Republicans have gained a little too much weight and need to take a hike, or even a stroll. Maybe Ted Kennedy would like to join them.
-On the subject your last invective, I would like for you to refresh my memory as to any legislation which has been submitted by Democrats which have not been dangerous to our Freedom or that have increased our trust in the Democrats ability to run this country.
-Other than that, I disagree with everything that you have said % )

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:06 - ID#288186)
Per the EWT short term update(by Steve Hochberg), Silver has declined
in only three waves ( from the recent 5.08 level ) , and is basing around
a previous fourth wave. The 4.875 level remains crucial to silver's
near term trend. If Silver stays above this level, then we could see
a rally toward the next resistance of 5.190. If 4.875 is breached,
then the scenerio is bearish with silver heading back below 4.680 level.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:09 - ID#219363)
Just wanted to extend a big ole Envy Amen to all that stuff you said. I've done the same, seen the same, and roughly expect all the same things as you seem to be expecting. Amen to the Tao/Force investors everywhere. I had Yahoo stock when it first went public and held it for a long time, but when it got stupid, I sold it. Even though it's triple what it was, for some reason I'm glad I sold it as I wouldn't have been able to sleep with that spirit under my bed haunting my dreams. I'm still there for value, I'd rather be at the bottom looking up than at the top looking higher.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:10 - ID#227238)
John Galt:
Where are you???

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:12 - ID#273112)
@mole: One of two things will you become:
1 ) one of the Clinton Love Police, cleansing the New American Order of political wrong-thinkers, herding them into re-education concentration camps...

2 ) or one of the emaciated, filthy, lice-covered incredulous inmates in the concentration camps your beloved Clinton Democrats herd wrong-thinkers into to die, muttering in a daze "...but I supported Bill ... I'm loyal ... i'm loyal .... i'm ..."

I'll share my crust of bread with you if you still have the strength to eat.

The difference between Pol Pot's Cambodia and Bill Clinton's America gets less and less each day. How little it takes to turn a brain-washed fool such as yourself from green-grocer, to cremation oven superintendant.

Spud, 1776 II unavoidable now... choose your side

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:12 - ID#231337)
Managed Gold Trade
Can anyone shed some light on the following possibility: What's the possibility for one central bank, i.e. the US sell its gold to another central bank in exchange for buying exactly an equal amount of gold from that other bank, i.e. UK, at predetermined and equal amount and price? Gold price is set ( managed ) , trading happens at predetermined levels, and no net new gold required!! Now that Tony Blair is fronting President Clinton, and both currencies are highly valued, is such a simple yet devastating arrangement possible? Perhaps in my naivet, I ask this question remember that Gold is a political instrument.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:13 - ID#20359)
I listened yesterday to a program hosted by a black man and he was interviewing
two black men and a black black man was offended at being called an African American...he said whoa...hold the phone...I am an AMERICAN and it says so on my birth certificate. ( mozel, put a sock in it, let me stick to one thing in one conversation, thanks ) This was a man who said growing up he had to deal with white bigotry and black bigotry, he described both lots as having lots of problems.

I salute this man who says I am an AMERICAN not a hyphenated American...

I just love it when people who are Americans tell it like it is instead of the common, lowest denominator mouth pieces the media usually drags out to try and prove their veiled agenda...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:18 - ID#410165)
mole.....try engaging the mind before you open the mouth....your facts are wrong but then again you
are repeating ABC NBC CBS and CNN clap trap.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:18 - ID#401460)

Since when is doing your constitutional duty considered "right wing extreemist"? Are you saying all Republicans and anyone who stands up to Clinton is an extreemist? Be careful, Clinton controls the poles as he does the media, and it sounds like you are buying into all of Clinton's crap.

Let's take our own pole here at Kitco.
Has any one here ever been poled?

It is my understanding that they are "Hit Skip Poles" stop people on the street in NY then skip over the country to LA.

I would have to think, that what ever one's persuasion, right or left, as long as one is American, one should be very concerned right now with this administration.

Clinton will now file suit to contest the constitutionality of the impeachment action by the US Congress. We are approaching a Constitutional Crises.

Meanwhile, Clinton is still sending troops to the MidEast. Who is really dangerous to the US and the rest of the World? Some people should get their heads out of the sand before it is to late. Just MHO.

EBAY is up + 43 are you buying this too?


lefty kiwi
(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:22 - ID#32176)
Graph of Oz of Gold compared to unit of Dow.........
I am looking for the URL for the above graph which covers most of this century . I think I originally saw it on golden eagle can anyone remind me where it is please .

Thankyou Brian .

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:29 - ID#269409)
@ In like Flynt.... Clinton's party
How appropriate....that the world's foremost purveyor of the lowest smut and sleaze, Larry Flynt, is now the champion of the Democratic party's smear squad. ( Using their stolen FBI files no doubt )

Clinton, his Democrat supporters, and Larry Flynt make excellent and appropriate bedfellows.

Hey PH.... Clinton is not a dirtbag...that's WAY too kind a description.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:30 - ID#287148)
Who moved the portal?
Thank you for the welcome. Do you remember a TV show a couple of years ago called "Sliders" about a group of four who found a portal to parallel universes, but could not control the particular earth on which they would arrive. They began in San Francisco and always landed in S.F., and it sometimes looked very different, e.g. ice age, or great flood, or ( horrors ) governed by women. Mostly, though, it looked the same and they would think for awhile that they were home, until they noticed something out of focus, a bit off, and it was not their world after all and then something really strange and generally oppressive or ridiculous would happen and they would barely escape with their lives through the portal to the next look-alike earth. Wonder if they ever went home.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:35 - ID#20359)
Whooooa Nellie!!!, when this baby blows it is going to sucker punch the vast majority of
market participants...the scythe of reality is arcing backwards and will exenterate the financially punch drunkit will be swiftthose that do not own things or shares of stock in things shall be decimated.

The pipe dreams are us crowd will awaken to actual reality and the ugliest thing they will see is their reflection in a mirror...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:36 - ID#93241)
I'm no fan of Clinton, but you certainly make a good point about the prosecutorial nature of American politics. Who here would stand for an investigation into his life such as Ken Starr has conducted against Clinton? Anybody here ever been popped by the Feds? It's no fun... IMHO, Bill Clinton represents half of what's wrong with America. Ken Starr represents the other half of what's wrong with us. One wants whatever he can get his hands on, the other sees something wrong in everything. Maybe they're a lot alike. Can't say I care for either. In the end, they'll get what they deserve, just like the rest of us.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:36 - ID#219363)
@Pookie, Market Timing
That's one big myth I've finally overcome, that some Joe of the street ( me ) can't time the market. During our little drop this summer we literally had WEEKS to get out of the markets, and it was so obvious then that the markets were going to drop significantly. I was lead to believe that investors never saw it coming, so I watched sort of close, too close, so close that I nearly out-smarted myself. If anything, I think it becomes so obvious what's going to happen when there is going to be a large drop that patience becomes the big virtue as the thing unfolds slowly over time, it's almost like watching grass grow. I now think when "they" say that you can't time the market, they're talking about someone who has money in a 401-k and waits for their statements to come in the mail, but any ole guy off the street can time the market if [s]he just pays a little bit of attention. I don't mean to make it sound like a regular Joe can milk every last dime out of the thing, but you can certainly avoid a 10 percent loss without having to stand on the trading floor.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:40 - ID#285392)
APH: Thanks for your regular updates
Do you have any projections as to the depth of the next s&p dip once it starts??

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:42 - ID#389387)
FED sees bubble. Alan pulls out a pin.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:49 - ID#34459)
An Impulsive Wave of ....
small degree appears to be developing in the XAU. must be buying em up, The index stopped going down today absolutly at the .618 number. Its uncanny how old Fibbonacci can work that kind of magic. Today may well be an important low in the gold stocks, a reversal up today would be Bullish!
CoBra, stuck in the slow lane.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:49 - ID#273112)
@HighRise ... the polls ... yes, there is the place for a Congressional investigation...
Let's have the major pollsters come before Congress and PROVE that their polls are in fact:

a ) Random
b ) Unbiased
c ) Accurate

I observe that AOL, MSNBC and CNN Internet polls are very, VERY different from those presented by the "scientific", "accurate" pros ... makes you think real heard.

The stench of the "professional" polls being presented by ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN exceeds that of week-old dead catfish on a muddy creek bank in summer Texas sun. We all know the polls are rotten, but in this blighted atmosphere of individuals frightened of speaking frankly for fear of political correctness ... for fear of being labeled "rascist" by virtue of disagreeing with the Democrats ... we remain silent, and watch dumbly as Clinton's paid squads of slanderers, lie-mongers, deceivers, truth-shaders spread out over the media airways like a fervid oil-slick of hatred of all who oppose them and their sick lust for Power. The informational-evil exuded by James Carville is palpable, sickening. ANd you and I pay for this...

For the record: I've never been called for a political poll. But I suspect it's like jury duty: the second you give the attourney the faintest hint that you have an independant, skeptical mind you are outta . Likewise, pollsters want malleable, credulous fools for their ... "polls"...


(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:52 - ID#34459)
An Impulsive Wave of ....
small degree appears to be developing in the XAU. must be buying em up, The index stopped going down today absolutly at the .618 number. Its uncanny how old Fibbonacci can work that kind of magic. Today may well be an important low in the gold stocks, a reversal up today would be Bullish!
CoBra, stuck in the slow lane.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:53 - ID#285392)
Martin Armstrong Quote as of Nov. 98 COMMODITIES GOING UP IN MID 2000
"Around the middle of the year 2000, all these trends should begin to reverse. From 2000 forward we see a return to inflation. This inflationary trend is going to be quite significant. We expect to see the next real boom in the commodity sector. From a low in the year 2000, commodities may begin to peak on the next business cycle in 20007. So we are anticipating approximatley a seven year bull market."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:57 - ID#225369)
@Cage Rattler
According to a recent poll taken of the consumers outside grocery stores nationwide,83% of Americans believe hog producers are getting full value for their pork.Factoring in for the cost of marketing,web-site maintenance,and labor, 7 cents a pound is fair.

Cattle producers believe the recent belly-aching of the pork producers is is groundless.The threat of producer boycott of the market raised the eyebrows of the secretary of agriculture.We all know what it means when this administration raises it's brows.What we need is e-pork,today-maybe e-gold.E-bay up 48 dollars and change today!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 14:57 - ID#28994)
Many Posters
are always refering to The World Net Daily as the news and commentary gospel,they appear to me to be a division of the National Enquirer.
What is the scoop on these dudes?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:03 - ID#339274)
Last Friday's call;cyclical hourly low,first hour Tuesday morning.
Xau support is 63.Gold 288,NEM 17.
Expecting a spike today and hasn't materialized yet.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:03 - ID#288186)
NTEOTWAWKI; Good article you found there....Aren't they a little late in
worrying about a "bubble" market? I'd say so! I think most everyone here
would say so, too!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:05 - ID#389387) 5 minute chart for today on DOW looks like pennant formation.
Growing up in Cleveland, OH, my fondest memories of winter were the dreams of spring. We'ed pack up the Buick and head for Cedar Point amusement park. As the brisk spring wind would blow across lake Erie, we would be bare knuckled with purple skin, holding onto the safety bar of the Blue Streak. This fine old wooden roller coaster left alot to the imagination. You knew it was going to go down. You just didn't know exactly when. Only when the clickety-clickety-clickety stopped did you know the world was going to change forever. Go ahead XOOM, AMZN & EBAY. Either my hearing is failing prematurely or what is that deafening silence I hear. No more clickety-clickety-clickety. Wheeeeee!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:07 - ID#20359)
HighRise, Namaste'gulp and a puff to ya...never been asked to participate in a poll
and it is too simple to make polls say whatever you want...they are garbage...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:21 - ID#254130)
IMF Says U.S. Economic Slowdown In 1999 Is Inevitable

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. economy, set to slow sharply in 1999 to about half this
year's rate of growth, faces additional risk from a potential drop in stock prices, the
International Monetary Fund said Monday.... Monetary Fund said Monday.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:22 - ID#255285)
e-pork! Brabo!.
Perhaps I should be on an e-diet.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:22 - ID#254130)
IMF Says U.S. Economic Slowdown In 1999 Is Inevitable

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The U.S. economy, set to slow sharply in 1999 to about half this
year's rate of growth, faces additional risk from a potential drop in stock prices, the
International Monetary Fund said Monday....

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:39 - ID#389387)
Hey boys. Now that your done with Iraq...
I've got a few more "stops" for you to make on the way home.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:49 - ID#269409)
Paul Erdman's take
Reality Check

By Paul E. Erdman, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:41 PM ET Dec 21, 1998
Also: StockWatch

When you consider the events of past days, one must wonder about whether
we now live in a "virtual world" where reality is but an illusion.

Consider impeachment. We all know that a deal will
be struck in the Senate.

Consider the 72 hours phoney "war" against Iraq.
We all know it will not have any effect whatsoever
on the power of Saddam Hussein to defy the United
States and the United Nations. Yet it cost us billions
of dollars.

Consider the withdrawal of Representative
Livingston from consideration for the position of
Speaker of the House - a position only third removed
from the Presidency. Because of this man's failing to
achieve Biblical standards of morality he felt it
necessary to resign - although many characters in the
Bible who fell equally short did not.

Consider President Clinton, who, despite his lying
through his teeth all over the place, an hour after
being impeached ascribed his problems to a climate
of personal vendettas.

Who can blame those who respond by saying: "A pox on all their houses."

That is what Wall Street is saying. It is a statement of fundamental
importance. For it reflects the belief, shared by the citizenry of this country,
by the majority of investors and investment managers alike, that it is not the
President of the United States, not the Speaker of the House, not the Majority
Leader of the Senate who decide the destiny of the United States. Rather it is
the CEO's of Intel ( INTC ) , of Disney ( DIS ) , of GM ( GM ) , of Chase
Manhattan ( CMB ) , and, yes, maybe even of ( AMZN ) ( although
I doubt that ) , who will determine our future well-being.

I concluded my last column with the words: "Frankly, I think that Wall Street
has been right all along to simply ignore what has been going on in
Washington. But the test of whether they will continue to be right will come
this Friday." Well, that test came today and Wall Street passed it with flying

(Mon Dec 21 1998 15:58 - ID#286230)
tolerant1 --Polls
As I understand it the numbers for Bill were high in the polls before the last elections and the Dems increased their numbers. How is that to be explained in light of the reported gains in the polls? Ever find out anything about the Star Chamber?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:05 - ID#389387)
I guess now that Alan has cleaned up that nasty derivative mess, he can now worry about deflation again. If his massive computing power cannot see the correlation between his lowering rates and the hot money equity bubble which has accelerated its growth. What if he lowers rates again ( lever A ) and simultaneously sells his PPT S&P calls ( lever B ) . Hmmmmm.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:07 - ID#35757)
@Spud Master - Polls
Please. It takes a certain degree of intelligence and education to use the net. You have to be able to read for example. Are you really surprised that a poll scientificly designed to reflect the opinions of idiots, imbeciles and morons ( in their proper proportions of course ) would vary from a poll taken on the net?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:08 - ID#317193)
Gold...somedays I just HATE investing in gold...
Then, again, if gold ever really gets to $250 the whole world will be in such a mess owning gold will be your only hope of preserving capital.

Seven business days until January 1,1999...$285 anyone?

I care not what the IMF, FOMC or any other person/entity is saying...the world is in La la land. If you have time to be a can get in and out. As of now, I'm just buying the dips that is. Sooner or later the stock market feeding frenzy will cause its own death. Real money will then mean gold and silver?

I'm so jaded I don't even get frustrated anymore...we watch this old gold market, my gold and silver and RSA shares.

BTW...lot of insider buying in Crown Resources...CRRS...anybody have any info....

How many more Comex delivery notices will we see before the 29th? Interesting!

FOMC...maybe they will raise rates...fat chance.

I'm done rambling...feel better...Happy Thanks


Spud Master
(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:18 - ID#273112)
@morbius, brain of
"[I]t takes a certain degree of intelligence and education to use the net"

oh please, come off your highhorse. To ascribe any great intellect & Etc. to the average Internet user is to confuse the ability to use a telephone with intelligence.

last time I checked it was - point - click - stare at pretty pictures - wipe drool off lip. Just as many Internet morons as there are in any other Venn intersection of life.

thus, I believe internet polls to be just as reflective of America at large as any "scientific" poll would ascribe. Really, do you think the ABC/CNN "scientific" pollsters say: " we need to randomly call 323 morons, idiots and non-readers ... where's our list of NPR subscribers..."


uh ... go ... gold?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:26 - ID#287148)
It is snowing on the beach in Oregon
one of the gentler manifestations of a topsy-turvy world. I agree, TYoung, the world is in la-la-land, and nothing anyone says makes any sense anymore except for the words of some fine people here ( you know who you are ) and I thank you for being here and sharing your thoughts and humor. I am off to build a snowman with my son at the edge of the sea.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:37 - ID#20359)
Selby, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya......polls mean nothing...
watch the bloodshed world wide because of is coming and no poll will stop and see actual will not need a poll...but rather an accurate count of the mass graves and body bags...

got plasma?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:38 - ID#43352)
What the $@&^! ??
Just thought I'd drop in and check things out.

Every time I get busy with other things, somebody gets everything all messed up. The DOW's too high; gold, silver and oil are too low; and bonds look all wierd.

I'm going to have to spend some time getting things set rught tonight.

I think I'll get one of those little video cam things and set it up in the lever room to see who keeps doing that when I'm away.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:38 - ID#35757)
@Spud Master
Considering how accurate the poll takers are at calling elections ( When was the last time Dewey defeated Truman? ) , I have to conclude they are pretty good at what they do. Also, there seems to be little discrepancy in the results of the various poll takers. If Clinton supporters are cooking the polls, why can't his detractors do the same. Then we would see Pool A showing 70% approval and Poll B showing 70% disapproval. We don't see this in polls of the general public. I agree that polls of the internet community do show a great discrepancy. The most simple explanation for this is that internet users do not reflect the public at large.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:49 - ID#386245)
Well, we can all relax now boys and girls...
...because the price of gold is not going anywhere in 1999.

How do I know this?? That nice fellow from Merrill Lynch just told me so.
To paraphrase: It will be like the Chinese water torture. Death of a thousand drips, or words to that effect. We have had a mini-war, massive upheaval in Asia etc. and what has the POG done?? Nada. Nothing. It would take a 'major' event to get the POG up ( he intimated that nothing short of the end of the world would do the job ) .

Now you know that Merrill rocket scientists have never been wrong in their predictions. It is time to sell all of your gold folks, including physical, and put ALL of the proceeds into Amazon. 300% gain per annum to infinity. Anyone for a game of .999 tiddlywinks???

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:49 - ID#35757)
@Spud Master
As far as your question about a pollster saying 'lets call a moron' - that's exactly what someone trying to conduct a scientific poll would do. Any poll that excluded morons would be biased and unreliable. I doubt that morons are a demographic category used by pollsters ( my suggestion to that effect was an attempt at humor ) , but polling is a true science, and the methods used are very sophisticated.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 16:54 - ID#249232)
Deflation--Let's examine the evidence
The CRB recorded new low's today closing at 188.29. Commodities producers such as farmers, oil drillers, base metal miners,steel makers,etc, are losing their businesses and will shut their doors soon. The pain inflicted by deflation is spreading in manufacturing. Deflation is like a knife penetrating your chest each and every day a bit deeper until it kills you. There is no way out. All of us will suffer, some more, some less. The biggest pain will be inflicted on the hi tech industry once the prices received for their products in the market place declines below cost of production. Once confidence is lost, it will be like in jungle, the survivor of the fetus. I don't like to talk about these issues , but it's reality and we have to live with it. Your life jackets during this period should include gold ,gold mining stocks and cash. In my opinion gold will do well in 1999. The market place is the ultimate decision maker and right now the market is screaming-deflation is accelerating.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:00 - ID#20359)
WJC has made a mockery of himself, by his own actions, he has made a mockery
of the USA internationally, there is no turning back, what is done, is not the end, merely the beginning...history has taken a terrible detour...

America has been Rhode hard and put up wet by this criminal pissant...

The ignorant have sealed the fate of 10s of millions the world over...

I pity the men and women of the US military who have to live by different rules than this elected cancer on the American stasis...

Clintler will remain a dirtbag...

And the fallen ones will remain...dead...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:06 - ID#389387)
recursion, recursion, recursion
Let's see. 10Q's are to include statements regarding the impact of Y2K date problems on an organization. But wait, there's a problem with the dates in Edgar. Hope it's all fixed y'all.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:11 - ID#267298)
All: The Twilight Zone: Just imagine)

1 ) You are driving along a very scenic route, alongside a riverbank, mile
after mile, suddenly, your wife/husband says, look dear, look at that
beautiful waterfall. Sure enough you see the beautiful waterfall, but,
something is not right, the water is running uphill, from the riverbank
up towards the mountains peak. You must reach your destination at a certain time so you drive on thinking this is not rational, it cannot be, this shall surely come to pass.

2 ) On a quiet, warm and sunny summer afternoon you are mowing your
lawn. Suddenly, the sky is overcast, then, lightning, thunder, a downpour of rain such as you have never seen before. Then, just as
quickly as it began, it ends. You resume mowing your lawn, and then
you see it, the most incredible rainbow ever. But wait, something is odd, the rainbow appears to be upside down, the two opposite ends
reaching skyward as far as the eye can see. Just then, across the street, you see a child run into the traffic, chasing his runaway puppy,
As you turn to shout a warning you think of the rainbow, this is not
rational, it cannot be, this shall surely come to pass.

3 ) Your child comes to you with a half inflated balloon asking you to
fully inflate it. Deciding to have some fun you find a pin and prick
the balloon, but, to your surprise, it inflates one quarter more. you
prick the balloon a second time, but again, to your amazement, it inflates even more. The telephone rings, an anticipated business
call, you head toward the telephone thinking this is not rational,
it cannot be, this shall surely come to pass.

Welcome to the Twilight Zone. On this 21st day of December 1998
I look about this world of ours and see:

- Country after country around the globe reduced to
economic basket case status.
- Military tensions, the USA having just bombed Iraq and
possibly having to do so again in the near future.
- Commodities dropping to multi year lows, the world perhaps
about to enter a prolonged deflationary cycle.
- Equities trading at unbelievable price to earnings ratios.
- Large North American corporations laying off hundreds and
in some cases, thousands of employees and issuing future
earnings warnings.
- Y2K, problems very likely to begin in 99.
- Introduction of the EURO about two weeks from now.
- The PRESIDENT of the USA "Impeached".
- The NASDAQ setting yet another record high today.

And, I see, we are truly living in the "TWILIGHT ZONE",
and cannot help but think, this is not rational, it cannot be,
this shall surely come to pass.

But WHEN, pray tell WHEN ??????????????

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:21 - ID#273112)
Read the latest CNN web poll:

51% Clinton approval via web poll vs.
73% Clinton approval via ABC "scientific" poll

with variations like that, I don't even bother paying attention to the polls.

as to your comment re. polling "morons" - wrong buddy - a true poll should be totally blind concerning who is polled - randomly spin out one thousand names - call - question - talley.

Anything else is ... how would Bill Clinton put it? ... what "The American People want"?

These "scientific" polls don't reveal public opinion; they create it.

People are credulous, the pollsters know this, and follow the lead of whomever shows them the cash. Kind of like a tame witness at a trail: you get what you pay for, yes? Or do you really think any pollster that delivered facts counter to what the client paid for would be in business any length of time?

Am I impeaching the impartiality of the pollsters. Of course.

Does Congress need to investigate the pollsters - who are now used in place of the Vote to determine National Policy?

Damn right.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:24 - ID#219363)
My investment choice for 1999 is, well, it isn't actually. It's cash, good ole green and white paper with Presidential faces on it, funny cartoon monopoly money like faces on the new bills. Cash has been doing well, and I think it'll do even better in 1999, I suspect by the end of 1999 cash will have out performed equities, bonds, gold, you name it. What's the one thing most people don't have in their portfolio ? They have stocks, bonds, annuities, life insurance, hard assets, real estate, zeros, coupons, notes, precious metals, cars, toys, money markets, mutual funds, they have everything except good ole green with Envy cash. Cash is out performing commodities all over the place right now and I'm thinking cash might out perform all that other stuff in 1999 as well. As an investor, I think there's only one choice to be made, and that is, which countries cash ? So many choices, but I'll stick with the American buck. Consumer confidence is looking a little bit toppy, and the savings rate looks like it's searching for a bottom, let me be the first to panic, let me be the first to stop consuming, and the first to start a scrooging. Go Cash. Go USD. And maybe Go Yen and Franc as a hedge.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:29 - ID#244446)
Message to Squirrel in Colorado
Squirrel, I read your post last night. Am now looking into buying a placer claim in the A--- area from a neighbor of mine. Could you email me so I can ask a few general questions about placer mining in that area? I want to know how tough the forest service is on placer mining and a few other points.
I am on Hwy 24 about one hour away and would appreciate your advice.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:33 - ID#43352)
It IS a lot like twilight zone, isn't it? On the other hand we have seen this before.

During and just after the first world war there was an inflation ( even a hyper inflation ) in Europe and to some extent in the US.

Farm prices went up, and suddenly the farmers were making money.

Back then the US was primarily an agricultural economy and the increase in prices begat something of a boom.

The farmers went to the bank, borrowed more money, bought farm equipment, more land, and paint and materials to fix the old place up.

After a very few years, prices went back down.

Farmers, now in hock to the bank. started going broke.

Businesses had just made some good profits selling farm gooods but now, during the "roaring twenties" the economy was slowing down and they started looking around for some other place to "invest" their cash.

They bought stocks. and as the markets went up, they felt like they were making even more money, even though the underlying darming and manufacturing sectors were going south.

Eventually came 1929, and the end of an era.

During the final year, it was a "twilight zone" just as now. Commodity and farm prices were down. Factories were starting to lay off. but equities zoomed.

Flying on empty is like that.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:34 - ID#317193)
Sadie...building a snowman by the sea with your child....
Gives new meaning to the word "precious". And I thought gold was important...not that much.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:35 - ID#43352)
It IS a lot like twilight zone, isn't it? On the other hand we have seen this before.

During and just after the first world war there was an inflation ( even a hyper inflation ) in Europe and to some extent in the US.

Farm prices went up, and suddenly the farmers were making money.

Back then the US was primarily an agricultural economy and the increase in prices begat something of a boom.

The farmers went to the bank, borrowed more money, bought farm equipment, more land, and paint and materials to fix the old place up.

After a very few years, prices went back down.

Farmers, now in hock to the bank. started going broke.

Businesses had just made some good profits selling farm goods but now, during the "roaring twenties" the economy was slowing down and they started looking around for some other place to "invest" their cash.

They bought stocks. and as the markets went up, they felt like they were making even more money, even though the underlying farming and manufacturing sectors were going south.

Eventually came 1929, and the end of an era.

During the final year, it was a "twilight zone" just as now. Commodity and farm prices were down. Factories were starting to lay off. but equities zoomed.

Flying on empty is like that.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:37 - ID#286230)
I worked with poll data for a few years and as long as they are done the way they are supposed to be done--I won't go against them. But I think the important factor is that the Senate may dismiss the poll results just as the House did. Personally I don't see much difference between Clinton and Gore except Gore is much less of a an actor. I think he will bomb Iraq if it suites him as long as there are cruise missiles coming to the end of their shelf life.

In addition to CBS NBC CNN NBC CBC and BBC TV news I listen to a CBC radio program--off and on-- from about 1 am to 5am that rebroadcasts news and commentaring from Sweden Denmark Germany England France and Australia. My impression is that most of the western world thinks Clinton is going to finish out his second 4 years; that Saddam just won again; that the US economy will continue to boom and that Y2K may be a problem.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:51 - ID#29048)
Market Comments
"It was definitely not a banner day for precious metals," a trader said.
"Despite the historic weekend, the economy is going along fine. People are not panicked about anything. There's very little interest going into the end of the year."

So the stock market goes up and the CRB hits a 21 year low and people are not panicked about anything. ok

(Mon Dec 21 1998 17:52 - ID#35757)
@Spud Master
You are right. Ideally it should be random, but a sample size of 1000 is not adequate to reflect the views of 100 million people with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. There are mathematical formulas that relate the disired degree of accuracy to the sample size. In order to avoid the expense of polling the large sample, the statisticians use demographics to insure that the smaller sample is representative.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:00 - ID#389387)
oink oink, I mean pork pork
Pork for pork. Sorry, no deflation here.

Farm Bureau urges loan program for pork producers

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:01 - ID#43349)
As Steven Jon Kaplan says
"Remember that buying gold mining stocks at current levels is like buying common stocks during the Great Depression: everyone will say that you are crazy, there will be a lot of short-term volatility, and anything that you know to be logically true will seem to be the inverse of actual market behavior."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:03 - ID#386245)
"Sadie the Cleaning Lady"
Welcome to Kitco. The above is a complimentary insult. It is the title of a song by Johnny Farnham that every Aussie would know by heart. As Aurator has pointed out, you are not accepted in Antipodea until 'the group' starts insulting you. Sort of a downunder thing. Many upovers don't know how to take our constant barage of insults--witness BARUCH's reaction to Aurator calling him Barry earlier today. He was paid a compliment and took it 180 degrees the opposite. Words do not transmit cultural differences well. It takes body language to do that.

I am waiting for the worm-hole to open so that I can get out of this DOW 10,000 parallel universe.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:07 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.10. The 233 day moving average is 29.35

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:10 - ID#267298)
Can't argue with you, there are similarities for sure.

The Farmers you speak of remind me of many "Investors"
today. You know, going to the bank, borrowing money and
all. Even the buying of farm equipment. I assume many of
the Internet stock certificates will qualify as "shovels" that
can be used to scoop up the manure when it hits the fan.

Seriously though I think another similarity is that many
investments in 29 were I believe highly leveraged, got derivitives ?
I really would hate to see a 29 type crash today. I think the
resulting damage would be a lot worse.

P.S. Get that camera hooked up and find the culprit that
messed with the levers.

Go Gold................

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:11 - ID#20359)
Selby, Namaste' gulp and a puff...I cannot find any real evidence of polling truth...
I KNOW WJC was elected by a minority of people in the United States... that is a fact...among those who voted he did not win anything near a "resounding" victory...another fact...of the registered voters WJC was elected by two of the smallest voter turnouts in history...another fact...

The numbers are on the books and tabulated...

Polls do not represent anything near a science...but they ARE treated as if they are the words of a God...

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:11 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .219. The 233 day moving average is .248

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:17 - ID#219363)
Japan Proposes More Spending
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan's Finance Ministry proposed a 5.4 percent spending increase next fiscal year in an effort to jump-start the nation's flagging economy, despite fears of widening the budget deficit. The $710.6 billion budget proposal unveiled Monday represents a turnaround from last year's austere budget of former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto. The increase in spending comes even though tax revenue is expected to plunge 19.5 percent next year to $409 billion, reflecting massive tax cuts planned for 1999 and the weak economy.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:19 - ID#194311)
War dogs on the prowl
Popular Israeli general to stand for prime minister
JERUSALEM, Dec 21 ( AFP ) - Former Israeli army commander General
Amnon Lipkin-Shahak has decided to run for prime minister, a post
which opinion polls say he will win if elections are called as
expected Monday, aides said.
They said Lipkin-Shahak, 54, chief of the general staff until
the beginning of this year, informed opposition Labour leader Ehud
Barak of his intentions late Thursday, and turned down an offer to
join Labour's ranks.

Comment: Russia has been polarised into a new Nationalistic Communist
era by US actions in the gulf. Expect a military ruler here to come to power also. Propaganda machines running on overtime in many nations.

THINK. THINK. THINK. THINK. THINK...the next war will wipe out humanity.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:21 - ID#35757)
I can't remember an instance when the polls were wrong. Recently ( recalling the races I was interested in ) :

Schumer over D'Amato ( what a choice, you have my sympathy ) - polls right
Fienstein vs whoever - polls right
Here in Nevada :
Guinn over Jones ( Governor ) - polls right
Reid over Ensign ( US Senator ) polls said too close to call - final result Reid by 400 votes. Overall pretty impressive.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:27 - ID#219363)
US Slaps Trade Sanctions on Europe
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- If you were wavering about buying that expensive cashmere sweater or fancy French handbag for Christmas, consider this: A nasty trade fight between the United States and Europe could make those and other European imports scarce on store shelves next year. The Clinton administration announced Monday that it plans to slap punitive tariffs of 100 percent early next year on hundreds of millions of dollars in European imports, effectively doubling their price. It's the latest action in a six-year battle over Europe's banana import rules. The dispute could still be resolved short of the tariffs going into effect. But both sides appear to be digging in their heels for a bitter trade war between the world's two biggest trading partners. If no settlement is reached, the sanctions likely will take effect March 3.
Yep, this has a good history of success. not. Time to go short on anything that relies on Europe as it's largest customer, cause these things snowball real quick. Europe is probably all ready now with a counter-tariff. As the world burns. Seems like I remember seeing this in the 1920 playbook too, 'cept it was called something else.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:28 - ID#401460)
Kitco Poll Results

Here are the results of the recent Kitco Poll, where all were ask whether they have ever been Polled. It is my conclusion after scientifically and generically reviewing the data, that, while some have worked on a poll, 100% of those responding have never been polled in their entire life. Now remember this has been a random poll with participants being legal residents of the Earth. We can only assume, therefore, that none of the respondents live in NYC or LA.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:29 - ID#210114)
LGB: Who mentioned socialism??
"Socialism has been discredited and does not work. Because without self interest, motivation
to achieve is lost. In the same way, anarchy doesn't work..because self interest without rule
of law, degenerates quickly into evil, which is unfortunately the nature of man in general, and
is especially viscous in a few.

There is a middle ground."

You bet. That's all I'm arguing for. Didn't mention socialism once, whatever your definition of that may be.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:29 - ID#275194)
To all: Has anyone heard about the latest woman to come forward
with a story about being raped by WJC 20 years ago?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:31 - ID#317193)


(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:34 - ID#219363)
Hong Kong Posts Deflation Figures
HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Hong Kong has registered deflation for the first time in 23 years, the government reported Monday, raising fears that the territory's recession-mired economy will not rebound for quite some time. A government statement blamed "the slack overall economic conditions" for November's slump in prices. The composite consumer price index fell by 0.7 percent in November compared with the same month in 1997, the Census and Statistics Department said. The index had edged up by only 0.1 percent in October from the year before. It cited a freeze in government fees and charges, lower costs for clothing, housing and food and low inflation rates in other economies as factors pushing down the inflation rate in Hong Kong.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:35 - ID#35757)
What is that little blue rod at the top of Kitco's home page?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:36 - ID#269409)
@ Kiwi..... Cry havoc and let loose... the Dogs of War
Unfortunately I agree with you. We've been lulled into complacency.

Ironically the Clinton / U.S. brokered "Wye accords" will be the "Straw that broke the camel's back" in destroying the Middle East Peace process. Netanyahu did his utmost to be reasonable and negotiate. Events since then have led the Israeli coalition to distrust Arafat and have led to a "no confidence" in the "Land for Peace" deal.

The vacuum of power in Russia will be filled by an anti-semite nationalist dictator.

The Middle East peace process will break down.

The EU will ultimately side against Israel and her ally's.

These things are all foretold in biblical prophecy.

We are in a very dangerous time, moreso than anytime since the early 60's....but folks have no idea.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:36 - ID#30345)
The only time POLLS are wrong is when the people are WRONG. Opinion and fact are often very different things especially when those who are asked are UNINFORMED. The people polled may in fact adore Clinton, whether misguided or not. As far as Clinton is concerned the FACTS will bear out whether the admiration is deserved only to the extent that the FACTS are observable and observed. Polls have little to do with reality until realizations are made. I believe Americans are largely uninformed and often misled so that exploitation is easy.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:38 - ID#219363)
Unemployed Protest in France
PARIS ( AP ) -- Thousands of jobless demonstrated across France on Monday to press the Socialist-led government for a bigger increase in unemployment benefits and a Christmas bonus. Protests were staged in some 60 cities throughout the country against a 3 percent rise in unemployment benefits announced by Prime Minister Lionel Jospin last week, which jobless associations say is too small. In Paris, about 400 people occupied the headquarters of insurance firm AXA to protest against poverty in general, unfurling a banner calling for "War on Poverty."
Hey ROR, all your unemployed socialist buddies want a Christmas bonus. *snicker*

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:43 - ID#219363)
Big Spenders Spend Less This Year
Fearing that their wallets won't be as thick in 1999, the nation's biggest spenders aren't loading up on $1,000 gifts this year as they have in Christmas' past. That's not to say the most affluent Americans have stopped spending, but they aren't indulging with the almost insatiable enthusiasm of the last few years. "Six months ago, I didn't think about what I was buying. Now, I'm watching it a little more," Steve Lee said after doing some shopping along New York's exclusive Madison Avenue. "I can't count on next year being as good as the past few years." Upscale retailers who cater to the rich had enjoyed a few years of unbelievable popularity. Not since the ostentatious 1980s had high-end merchandise been in such demand.
I guess Consumer Confidence doesn't count these guys.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:47 - ID#43460)
Spock and LGB
Spock said, "Alexander the Great was Gay".
Gagnrad replied, "So? His empire didn't last very long did it? For that matter the 200 Spartans who held Xerxes II at Thermopoli were too but that was yet another war.

"If you reread my assertion you will note that I reported that Thucidydes attributed Athenian losses to the fact that the gay leaders could not tolerate the military's criticism of their lifestyle. The fact that they were pissy enough to call back their most important general and have him killed at a crucial time was a major reason they lost the war."

LGB, you made the assertion that socialism never works. Never say never. There is one situation where it does work. In a society where everyone is related and closely kin, there is little incentive for strong government and there is little outside influence it works well. If you study the socialist experiance in homogeneous populations such as Sweden you will find that it initially worked to a limited extent, dependant upon the fact that these societies everyone everyone is of the same 'tribe'. The problem exists however that the system begins to break down if there is a single dissenter or one who stands out as an outsider or if there is rapid change for any reason. You see the inevitable breakdown but you don't see that the reason isn't socialism per se, but rather socialism which has overgrown its family roots.

Socialist traditions in such places are based upon a socially stratified society with strong traditions of passivity, cooperation and shared ethos of extended family. Much of the cultural homogeneity of such places was related to traditional religious mores and monarchist central government which are naturally the first targets for both Jacobin and Marxist reformers. Both the humanism of the 1700s and the Marxism of the 1800s sowed the seeds for internal destruction creating schism within the societies upon which they developed.

I could go on and on, citing the example of the devolution of socialism in the early Christian church, tying in the natural instability of democracy, etcetera, but I believe you get the point so I will get down off my soap box. And I will ponder the question of whether or not the problem of timing the inevitable world paper economic collapse may be predictable based upon sociological principles rather than economics.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:47 - ID#219363)
Lending Downturn Expected in 1999
Fearing fallout from overseas economic problems, banking and finance executives expect to lend less to businesses next year, and they expect loan defaults and bankruptcies to increase, according to a new survey. "Clearly, we are seeing widespread concern among lenders about the state of the U.S. economy," said E. Talbot Briddell, president of Phoenix Management Services, a Philadelphia-based management consulting firm that specializes in reviving troubled companies. "This economy has caught a bad cold. Lenders expect symptoms to worsen and believe some sort of intervention is necessary to stave off pneumonia," he said. A survey of 89 lenders released last week by Phoenix Management reported 40 percent said they believe commercial lending will decline next year. Only 14 percent predicted an increase. Nearly three-quarters of the lenders surveyed said they expect loan losses will rise, and 69 percent said bankruptcies will increase. In further evidence that they believe the domestic economy is in trouble, nearly half of the lenders predicted that unemployment will rise, and 59 percent said the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by one-quarter percentage point to one-half a percentage point in the next six months in a bid to keep the economy moving.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:52 - ID#35757)
They were not gay, the were bisexual. It was 300 spartans and a somewhat greater number of Arcadians, although only the Spartans chose to stand and die.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:55 - ID#43349)
Unfortuneatley the crash is already in progress and too late to stop. Look, for instance, at a chart of the CRB index and compare it to any typical ( '29 or '87 for instance ) crash chart.

The CRB HAS crashed and various sectors will go down one by one. Equities remain "the great white hope" for the moment and are drawing funds that can't find any other good place to go.

Look at the chaos that was generated when such a miniscule section of the global economy as Russia defaulted, and imagine the effect of something like Japan going down.

It won't be pretty.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:58 - ID#30345)
I guess what I am saying is that your 18:21 compares the results of one poll to another. Not a difficult task. The tricky part of polls is that the perception and reality are often different things, and when perceptions are used to make decisions on issues other than those other than just observations of sentiment ( for example the worth or moral character of a person ) well they can be inaccurate, subject to reformation, and not reflective of reason. JOPO. Just one persons opinion. ( The results from a polling of one person. ) *grin*.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:59 - ID#194311)
LGB...I agree complacency is everywhere.
I just don't understand it. The signs are innumerable, the world is heading into an incredibly dangerous phase with global peace threatened more so than any time during my short life, I think.

Why why why doesn't the "media" see this?
Why are they not informing the public of impending danger?
Why do they concentrate on local trivia?

The world's people have a right to know if forces are aligning to massacre tens of millions in support of what's "right".

I can't believe many conspiracy theories but if you wanted to plot to wipe out humanity, this would be how it would go.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:59 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now.....
Once again gentlemen, it has been interesting.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 18:59 - ID#43349)
The year of darkness
Begins with a full moon. Perhaps it will be better know as the year of lunacy.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:02 - ID#242325)
Where are the oldtimers Kitcoists?
Do you know why almost of us KITCOISTS..have been washed out...?
I for one had lost a lifetime fortune!
I am not proud with my performance in the market!
Here is my last position:

12 stocks related to gold platinium and silver :wiped out!almost.....
A FORTUNE!!!!!!!!!

3 Silver stocks mines kaputtt.
17 Calls Barrick Gold $40.00 Jan.2000 out of the money and close to hell!
60 Royal Mounties out of the money...Several USA Coins realy at a big LOST!
See BART for me CRYING!
I know it is for longgggggggggggggggggg termmmmmmmmmmmmm.
But I can fell the mood here since the begining of KITCO!
Down the DRAIN!!!!
We have been mmmmmanipulated!!!I should say Monicawated!!!!!!and I am close to think that NEVER Gold will prevail in my lifetime!
So .........I am investing in Toilette Paper Rolls for my wife and daughter`s future.......!!!!!!!!!
Y2K or not I am set for a bumpy ride fighting the mafia systemm.

We all have been crushed here at Kitco...Please someone else admit it!

I will never stop TRYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!And you?

Kitcoits from the First hour where are you and how badly do you suffer with the unlawfull manipulation from the Fed and the CBs in those past 3 years of agony?.

I know ......we officialy lost a lot of those first hour for writing.But I am
sure YOU are lurking once in a while.......

TIRED........!!!!!!!!!!!with FED************And Mafia Banking!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:03 - ID#287186)
Clinton's boys are heating things up!
"An arson fire damaged U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg's campaign headquarters Sunday, and police are investigating whether it was revenge for his votes on impeachment....
Knollenberg, a Republican, voted for all four articles of impeachment Saturday."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:10 - ID#25257)
@DBog, LGB
Very good LGB. Go to the head of the class. It is obvious that you have taken off the blinders, since you see the chess-like moves on a global and even at a supernatural level. All this, and just a few posts ago you were being dinegrated by one of your which you chose not to reply. Congratulations.
While the global-power moves are taking place in the visible realm, great strides are being made also in the "heavenlies" or spiritual realm.
As you rightly observed, Israel is at center stage.

Remember the command: "Pray for the Peace of Jerusalem"? You should then know that what happens to Israel affects the happenings in the world at large. Mr. Bill better keep his ( our ) hands off Gods prize. Ezekial 38 is just the summary of the story. Second Thesselonians is the inside view.

Echoing my earlier posts: The Spirit of Lies that consumes Bill Clinton has found an easy victim, since he has lied all of his life. The fruit of such lying is REPROBATION: the inability to tell the truth from fiction. Mr. Bill doesn't even care. Unfortunately, this same Spirit has consumed many people. They truly do not see the fallicies in their pro position on Bill short they are just like him.

On a positive note, we live in The Most Exciting Time in the history of the world. Remember the old TV show, "And You Were There"? Well, as you seem to be aware, LGB, WE ARE THERE! We are a blessed generation--blessed to witnesss the culmination of all history: Many of us will witness with our eyes ( as Job stated clearly ) the return of the creator and Savior of Mankind: The Lord Jesus Christ--MESSIAH!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:10 - ID#35757)
I never meant to suggest anything else.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:12 - ID#269409)
@ Spock
Re your last post, I'm with you in that there is an appropriate middle ground. Govt. is us, not some alien entity. We get the democracy we deserve. I don't want to see excessive taxation or social programs...but there are some things govt. can do efficiently if we ride herd on our elected reps.

We pay mechanics to repair our cars, doctors to provide medical care, carpenters to build our homes, Microsoft to provide an operating system.

We pay the govt. to build roads, provide police, provide some rule of law over individuals and corporations who would love to rape the citiznry and the environment given half a chance.... we pay them to maintain a military ( and hope it won't be misused for anyone's personal gain the way it has been recently ) ...we pay for some social programs that elevate all of society to a relatively even "Starting point" via educational opportunities, and at least enough food to survive, even if born to irresponsibble and/or immoral parents.

It's a decent return on our investment as long as it isn't taken too far.
And that's where the endless debate remains, yes? Where to draw that line.

Certainly I agree with you that a University education provided by a priveleged "Mummy and Daddy" is not ethically or morally superior to an education provided by the state, and for which returns on the student loans must be made. Both avenues achieve a greater good for our society.

I do love freedom, and the Bill of Rights. And I'd like to see less Govt. interference not more. Less spending, not more. Less new legislation, not more.

But the hell we'd descend into in an anarchist society, is one I certainly would not look forward to.

We have plenty of hundreds of historical examples of "the evil men do" when left accountable to no one but themselves. Such is no different than "The evil men do" when they set up fascist, totalitarian, unrepresentative governments.

No thanks to either.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:17 - ID#20359)
morbius, Namaste' gulp and a puff...if 73 % of the American people think WJC is doing
a good job that would mean that 143,453,030 Americans believe this to be is estimated that there are 196,511,000 voting age people...

Numbers are fun to play with huh...

47,402,357 voted for WJC in the 96 election

39,198,755 voted BD in the 96 election

96,456,345 - voter turnout

146,211,960 - registered voters

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:17 - ID#43349)
Puetz was here for the foothills
Where is he now that we are almost upon the great divide?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:19 - ID#317193)
Easy fiat money...lax lending...overbuilt production plant...glut of goods...lower prices...default...even lower prices...excessive defaults...well, you know the rest.

Look at the Buckler says...malinvestment...BK's coming our way.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:21 - ID#30345)
My uniformed opinion is that the rod at the top of the KITCO page is in reference to the platinum "meter" bar used as a world metric of the dimension of length. I don't really know though, it just seems kind of appropriate. Just another example of the reference value of PM in a rational world of observation. JOPO. Later Daze, I am gone.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:22 - ID#244446)
( Squirrel--please note my 17:29 message to you. )

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:23 - ID#219363)
Government Buys Pork To Help Farms
WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- In its latest step to help struggling hog farmers, the government announced Monday the purchase of $15 million worth of pork to supply food banks during the holiday season. "Traditionally, many of America's food banks face food shortages during this time of year," said Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman. Prices for hogs are at their lowest prices in more than 40 years because of an oversupply. Last week, Glickman formed a pork crisis task force that would make recommendations to help the industry. On Monday, he held meetings with meatpackers, retailers and farmers. Glickman last month announced the purchase of $50 million in pork for food assistance programs. Steven Cohen, a National Pork Producers Council spokesman, said the latest purchase was welcome, but doesn't go far enough.
The government subsidy, another deflationary tactic with a great track record. not. It just ain't gonna work, I'm trying not to slip into a RANT here. We could devalue the dollar, put trade barriers up, subsidize industry, etc, etc, and it would all put a nice positive spike on the graph, but the trend would still be down. This reminds me of putting a patient on life support to drag out a miserable death. I'm also reminded of business advice I got the first time I went out on my own, it went something like this: If the business you're starting is going to work, it'll work whether you start with a million dollars or the change in your pocket. Dumping cash on hog producers ain't gonna make the world start buying more hogs. Dropping the value of the dollar will help our exports, but doesn't help the big picture one little bit. Putting up trade barriers is great, hog producers won't have to compete in a free market anymore, but those barriers turn into counter-barriers that hurt one of our other exports. I wish they'd stop tinkering with it and just let the thing work itself out. If there are too many hog producers, then we need fewer hog producers, and that's all there is to it.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:25 - ID#43349)
The Pork Protection Team

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:26 - ID#43460)
Hey, Dewd, you make up your history and I'll make up mine! ( 8-^] ) It was enough to keep Spock speechless for an entire minute! But whether there were 200 or 300, hetero, homo, bi or in between they still lost the battle and it had as little to do with anything as Spock's Alexander example.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:33 - ID#20359)
Gollum, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya The Pork Protection Team...oh my.............................

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:47 - ID#269409)
@ Zeke...Gagnrad
We agree on much.

Ganrad... I don't oppose ALL socilaistic concepts in principle. Just the way they've been historically implemented in practice! Unfortunately, mankind is a selfish and fallen creature. He must be allowed substantial selfish personal reward for his labors....above and beyond lending benefit to his fellow man....., or he will cease his laboring altogether.

Zeke..... It will indeed eventually all revolve around Jerusalem. I don't often wax spiritual ( here on Kitco ) I can't tell you or explain adequately, the awestruck feelings felt when standing before the Dome of the Rock in that city....and contemplating it's history and future.

I spent some time working in Tel Aviv, a few visits there, and visited Jerusalem. It was an experience I'll not forget ever. An epihanal event.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:48 - ID#413109)
Regretfully LGB
Your post-LGB ( @ Kiwi..... Cry havoc and let loose... the Dogs of War ) ID#269409:
of yesterday, is also the way I see it.

It could have been prevented, but those powers that be did
not see it as it was.

Gold, hopefully will test its bottom and turn up, otherwise
it's an indication of where those manipulators can take us all,
and it isn't a pretty place.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:48 - ID#254321)
From World Net Daily: Is Clinton a threat to national security?
All: This communication is from Admiral Thomas H. Moorer, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff -- to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, days before the impeachment debate in the House.

Please review this carefully -- Moorer was not just referring to WJC's sexual habits, or his lying, but to the lax security in the current administration that lead to the release of sensitive technology to the Chinese, due in part to uninvestigated campaign contributions. He mentioned something else which I find astounding -- apparently the Communist Chinese have the means to gain complete contol of the Panama canal. I don't know if this is really possible, but it is intriquing nonetheless. He also said something else quite significant. He said that if WJC's actions go unchecked, he was likely to conclude that the constitutional checks and balances that limit the power of the President do not apply to him. Without impeachment, Moorer was worried that WJC would betray the country's trust. Reading between the lines this is as close as anyone has said in any official capacity that the president is a threat to the security of the United States. Interesting.

Another intriguing point about this communication is the dismal track record we have in compelling the Communist Chinese to improve the humand rights situation in China. Now -- I am in favor of trade with China -- as long as we do not release sensitive technologies -- and at the very least we should have applied some of our political leverage to improve human rights relations in China. With the exception of one speech by Hillary about womens rights, the current administration -- in particular the President of the United States -- has virtually given the Communist Chinese carte blanche.

I worry about what our children will face if Communist China continues to get the impression that the United States does not think human rights are important. Of course, what else could they think, given what WJC has singlehandedly done for women's rights.

Regretfully I must conclude that WJC must be tried in Congress -- I hope the Senate has as much backbone as the House -- but I doubt it. No one seems to be willing the risk of being smeared -- Dems and Republicans alike -- if any of the 'real' dirt on WJC come out. Did you all notice that Larry Flynt actually said that his friends in the WhiteHouse helped him with the investigations of the Republican's seamy sex lives? So far, strangely enough, none of the Democrats have any. Are they all neuter? Perhaps WJC does not have any FBI files on the Dems. I wonder why.

Well -- I can only hope, can't I? Time for some e-mails to our Senators.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:48 - ID#413109)
Regretfully LGB
Your post-LGB ( @ Kiwi..... Cry havoc and let loose... the Dogs of War ) ID#269409:
of yesterday, is also the way I see it.

It could have been prevented, but those powers that be did
not see it as it was.

Gold, hopefully will test its bottom and turn up, otherwise
it's an indication of where those manipulators can take us all,
and it isn't a pretty place.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:50 - ID#347457)
@Slick WJC and Polls
I have been quiet for some time, and intended to do so for some time while PG is in a dive. However, this "polls" discussion has changed my mind ( sorry Bart, ban me from the site if you have to, however, I would claim my "executive privilege" and ask you to ban everybody else violating Kitco's rules )
Wherever I turn, I can see a painful reality of the "slickWilly" character dividing the country as I never seen in my 20 years living in the USA. If I knew that the country would be run by the "popularity polls" instead of the law, I would never choose the USA to be my new homeland.

It is interesting to see how every "polled person" turns into "constitutional scholar", claiming that "offense is not impeachable  lets forgive him ".

Following the principles of the constitution made this country what it is today. Following the mood of the uninformed public ( which could be so easily manipulated ) would result in violent up-and-down swings according to changing public mood. Don't forget that the public opinion supported slavery before the Civil War, citizen of Salem supported the results of witch trial, and public opinion supported a persecution of US citizen e of Japanese origin after the Pearl Harbor. Go ahead, let the public popularity polls overrule the constitution, and you will see the nation that was great to fade away. If the "will of the people" is to keep WJC in the office, than please change the constitution but don't try to say it does not matter because we think it's OK!

I am disgusted with this "right wing partisanship" claims in order to protect "our man" when in the process the other side use all "partisanship rhetoric" they can dig out. The man should have never been elected to the office that is suppose to unite and lead the nation.

Yes, I may be biased - I never liked the man, never voted for him. However, that is not what matters. The question is, can you forget the law just because the public polls say "it's OK"?!

Folks, I have just came back from Europe. Yes, they are laughing at us, but not because we discuss "president sex", but because we can not make our mind what's right and let every spinster manipulate us into indecisiveness.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 19:59 - ID#411259)
..... Did some figuring on the whole gold below spot thingy .....

And came up with the following numbers.

Spot gold: 289, buy gold @ 288 with zero buy commission. Current bid price is 284.70. This makes the total spread 3.30. Commission on the sell back to us is 1%, or 3 to 4 dollars per ounce, depending on the POG at the time.

This is less than $7 per ounce in total turn-around costs.

Without using leverage, one could have the fully paid metal stored at Republic Bank. Storage costs for gold are 28 cents per ounce per month. Since the metal is paid for and title has passed to the owner, delivery can be made immediately upon demand, as long as one pays the applicable shipping costs. Or one could sell the metal at a profit and avoid the costs of shipping the metal all over the country.

Six month's storage and insurance is 1.65 per ounce total.
One year's storage and insurance is 3.30 per ounce total.

So total turnaround costs are: $3.30 spread + $3.30 for one year's storage and insurance + $4 sell back commission ( assuming $400 gold ) equals: $10.60 total turnaround costs for an entire year.

200 oz bought at $288, for a total of $57,600, would enjoy the full benefit of every dollar above $300 as pure profit.

$288 + 10.60 = $298.60 break even after one full year. If gold makes a modest move to $350 by the end of the year, this is a NET return of 17%. If gold reaches $400 by the end of next year, net return is nearly 35%. This is using no leverage, but owning the metal outright.

I cannot see a cheaper way to trade the physical metal anywhere. There is substantially less risk than taking delivery because of the extra costs involved with shipping the metal. Since there is no leverage involved, the risk is exactly the same as it would be if one held the metal. If the price goes down, don't sell it. Hold onto it for another six months, for a total of a buck sixty-five per ounce.

One could hold gold for a year in this manner, being fully paid for, and suffering no more than $10.60 per ounce in costs, this is good, no? The numbers seem to make sense to me. Although some expressed suspicion at the gold below spot thingy, This is the cheapest way I have ever seen to buy or sell physical gold.

This explanation is no offer to buy or sell, so don't yell at me. Some posters here called the offer into question, and this post is in direct response to those who did. After several posts filled with speculation and suspicion regarding the below spot offer, I think I am entitled to explain the numbers. For those that think I am not, save your words, I will not rise to the bait.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:05 - ID#277224)
Went through 1 1/2 hours of posts and virtually no mention
of the shiny one that does not tarnish.Someone must have some
uplifting theories or rationalizations.Hmmmmmm gave up the
ghost have we? We could always have a puddle huddle.Mais oui,
maybe everyone is out doing their last minute shop lifting.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:09 - ID#257312)
US About To Commit Act of War Against New Zealand?

Just read on AP newswire that defeated Illinois Senator Carol Mosely-Braun, friend of Nigerian dictators, race baiter extraordinaire, and all around idiot, has been offered ambassadorship to New Zealand.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:13 - ID#219363)
Scientific poll of gay pork producers in socialist countries says gold's going down.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:24 - ID#254130)
LA has 3rd anthrax hoax

LOS ANGELES, Dec. 21 ( UPI ) About
1,500 people were evacuated from a
Los Angeles courthouse in what the
FBI says was the third anthrax hoax
perpetrated in the area in the last

Authorities say a man phoned the
Van Nuys Courthouse about 8:30
a.m. today and indicated anthrax
had been released into the
two-building complex...

More than 100 people were
quarantined briefly at a high-rise
Los Angeles office building and a
federal Bankruptcy Court last week
in anthrax virus scares that also
turned out to be hoaxes.
Authorities say making such
terrorist threats could be
punishable by life in prison.

Naaa, never happen...

go AU!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:49 - ID#254274)
I know and I share the experiences of which you speak. I do not know if I qualify as one of the "old kitcoites", but I do know that this was NEVER about some short term investment or trading strategy. Sure, it would have been glorious if gold had recovered and shot into the financial sky, but, as we all know, the forces of a much stronger force are guiding people and markets. Either that, or the history of thousands of years of human experience have been cancelled, and we have arrived at financial nirvana. Tell that to the various people around the world who have lost much more than you, sir, to these forces. They, too, are part of the human experience, so you must negate them as well. How such a few have and do control the multitudes is unknown. But the unwinding will come; of that there is no doubt. For my part, I will carry on and continue to believe in ultimate value and truth; it gives a base and foundation that few seem to have. Yes, it is faith and belief; but when you strip away all the superfluous melange, that is all that is left anyway.
I cannot criticize your disappointment and frustration, but please remember the reason you ventured this way to begin with.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 20:53 - ID#277224)
You might also!!!!!!!!1

Doctor Gold
(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:01 - ID#272136)
KITCO....dictionary definition "unbelievably slow...often not moving at all...
outdated...unreliable" Come on guys get on the program....get a new server or put a fork in the current's almost dead!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:14 - ID#45173)
Japanese flogging their economy with higher deficit spending. At .5% I guess lowering interest rates is out of the question. Default and get it over with, I say. The sooner the better. Start over.

But then I don't have to live with the dreadful consequences, or do I?

How odd that the Fed launched today into tsk-tksing about the stock market bubble it created. Everyone seems to think it's a bubble, except the folks who keep bidding up the prices. Greed before fear.

Check out my site and tell me what you think.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:16 - ID#18355)
short interest update on selected gold stocks
i follow short interest on a month to month basis from the WSJ. short interest has been minimal in most of the golds all year, but has spiked up in the oct/nov time period coinciding with the xau high around 10/08/98 ( dow low ) . the short interest has gone down in the recent period mid november to mid december for the golds, which means that the shorts are covering in the year end time frame. shorts are supposedly smart money so this is bullish for the golds. also the short interest ratio even with the spike as of late has not been very large 5-7%. another sign imho that only strong shorts are bold enough to take aim at the golds in here. here are some figures for a few stocks:

Stock Short Interest 12/15/98 11/13/98 % Change

Barrick 6,511,599 8,473,545 ( - ) 23.2%
Battle Mountain 2,469,481 2,549,886 ( - ) 3.2%
Homestake 8,376,158 9,465,800 ( - ) 11.5%
Hecla 786,547 844,445 ( - ) 6.9%
Newmont 3,781,554 4,299,731 ( - ) 12.1%

the facts say that shorts are covering, could be why the volumes have been up during the last 3 weeks when the stocks have been going sideways and down. take care all.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:23 - ID#187109)
*gold dude*
So, let us assume this here gold falls ANOTHER couple-o-notches ( bucks ) , we would be talking of redoing these here #'s and the opp for profit would be even greater than your original calculations, yeah? OK. Now, let us assume there was a time table on this here *under spot thingy*.......say, for ANOTHER month......or 'till the end of the year or something like that. OK. other words, how long is an offer like this to be extended? Cause, this here gold thingy is goin' lower.........and the window of opp. may be a factor here..............ohmy! Let us know. Thanks Irvine. check on the Carne Asada..........been slow cooking it all day..........with fresh chiles.............and some choice onions...........garlic.......................couple of bay's golden..................... ( gone ) .

chefenrique...... is this gold stuff comments. It talks of less demand and over supply and deflation, etc.............hmmmmmmmm........

I like the #'s that cyclist has......277-272ish...............hell, once it breaks support of 277ish what's to stop it? I know, I know..........institutions and stuff............increased demand from small fries like myself.........Joe Sixpack, after he lost all his money in the crash........... ( he ain't gonna have any money to buy gold ) ........ANOTHER trying to corner the market......... ( yeah right ) ;- ) ...........I dunno, this thing is crazy man....And I'm very hungry.............c ya.

This DOW thingy is going into territory before end-o-year.................... ( just callin' it likes I sees it ) .......... ( uh huh ) . go to daily DOW march.................print it out and use you ruler ( straight edge ) ............... ( zoooom ) ( ! ) ! ( ! ) ! ( ! ) !!!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:30 - ID#374179)
Just an observation!
Looks like gold is near or at bottom.This dissention among gold bugs seems to confirm.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:34 - ID#390337)
@EJ - Great Site
I noticed on that ITLP was showing a consolidating pattern to the upside. Any insider trading we should be aware of? Also your 10-Q EDGAR filing was most informative. "We at iTulip have developed a hyperdimensional computing system which obviates the need for Y2K remediation. We just flip into a new dimension and proceed to worry about the Y3K problem."

Thanks again for a sane company in an insane world.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:40 - ID#255284)
Senator Carol Mosely-Braun
Yeah, I just heard that the new US ambassador to New Zealand, Senator Carol Mosely-Braun, was America's first Black Women Senator {blowed if I know how being black or a woman adds anything to being a senator} So, we have a different spin on the news.
You say she is a "friend of Nigerian dictators, race baiter extraordinaire, and all around idiot." I'd like to know more, but I suspect it shows the degree of regard our Allies, the United States of America, has towards this little bastion of freedom in the S Pacific. We shall watch this fiasco together, yes?

It's curious that we ( NZ ) don't get aid to buy weapons, we gotta buy your old and out-dated ones, that you'd otherwise use for target practice. I guess the US enemies get aid because new weapons are so expensive.

Ain't the free market just great!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:43 - ID#225369)
I noticed
that when the president or the first lady or one of the voice boxes of the administration talks about the important business of the country that needs to be gotten to , pigs,hogs,and pork are never mentioned.Social security is.Education is mentioned.The economy is mentioned.These are all general concerns and admirable.I just wish that once in a while someone there would say,"Damn! Have you seen the price of pork?" Thanksgiving,I mentioned the price of gold to a relative and he thought it was $400.He couldn't believe it was below $300.

Like gold,pork is everywhere you point.At 7 cents a pound,how long do you think this is gonna' last?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:46 - ID#43460)
Carmack re 20:05
Like in everything else, I have a theory. I believe that gold is so beaten, battered and bruised that even the 'bugs think it is dead.

As Kaplan says: "The P/E ratio on the S&P 500 closed at 31.58 on Monday, December 21, 1998, a new all-time record. By many measures, the last time any equity market was so overvalued was in London in 1720."

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:51 - ID#190411)
farfel's loss of confidence
doesn't bother me in the least. If he is on this forum to confess the blues, well, then he had better retract all of his Yale boy prophecies and bullshit of the past year.
I do like his incantations to the gods of Higher Education. Bretheren, farfel has lost his faith. He conjures the dark forces of Psychology, and assorted humbuggery, yet cannot offer his disciples the milk of the true economic.
farfel, throw up your hands into frantic resignation. Give it up, turn it loose.
Maybe you are better off with PHinLA, in your paper box.
Be gone, I think that I will buy more.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:52 - ID#220325)
CRB Index Would someone please give me a url with
charts for it. Thanks

(Mon Dec 21 1998 21:57 - ID#190411)
You SWC just marches along. Mine too.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:03 - ID#411251)
And I suppose some of you are quite happy with the fact that our beloved President is

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:05 - ID#411251)
Probably not going to have a HOLLY JOLLY Christmas.....this year.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:05 - ID#43349)
Speaking of tulips...

Compare these two charts:

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:15 - ID#25257)
Rumpled--Our Beloved President
Of course you are aware of the command to "Pray for those in authority over You." As such, we are required by our Lord to pray for Mr. Clinton and his Caudre. What you don't know is that many of the Brethren have begun to pray for his REMOVAL. We, as Christians pray for a return of Godly Wisom to the people who lead this Nation in the Whitehouse and in all other Leadership roles. If you believe that these prayers are in vain, you are deceived.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:15 - ID#225369)
The answer to the question is:
Gold will last until the pork begins to disappear off the shelves.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:16 - ID#174103)
Deflation and the Consumer
Read a fairly optimistic piece on Bloomberg about how consumer spending, being at an all time high, would keep the economy on the same upward path ( as measured by equity prices ) in 1999. The reasoning was that lower commodity prices translated into cheaper production costs, and profit pressure caused by lower prices would be offset by cheaper production and therefore everything would be hunky dory. Apparently, as long as the majority of consumers are disconnected from negative pricing pressures due to commodity prices falling ( farmers, oil producers and refiners, etc. ) the rest of the consumer horde will keep their jobs and continue to buy goods and services, thereby assuring jobs for the consumer hordes.

Now you could poke more than just a few holes in this theory, but what really struck me was the complete absence of the concept that economies are non-linear, very dynamic, and contain many levels of connections. So I wonder if this time, as in the past, early stages of deflation elude the static-ticians, as they mistake it for a new era of low inflation and happiness. Sure, price levels are stable or falling, so your average consumer, still employed, enjoys greater purchasing power. As prices drop, consumer spending increases. Volume increases as profit levels fall, while export-import imbalances increase as the consumer favors cheaper foreign goods. Interest rates are low, so debt is easier to carry. Debt levels increase, but the cost of carrying the debt stays the same or falls. Everything appears to be hunky dory.

Alternate take:

But the first layoffs occur in industries at the first stages of production ( extraction, refining, farming ) which is occurring now. Still not a big hit to the overall consumer market. Then consumers reach high enough debt levels that the rate of debt increase slows down. Unless easy money is available at this stage ( AG is listening ) consumer spending slows. This is when layoffs occur for those employed at later stages of production ( manufacturing, wholesale, retail, distribution ) . Finally, the last sector to get hit are the service industry employees, which in this economy includes software developers as well as hamburger flippers. ( apologies to sd out there! ) All the while, general price levels are dropping as companies are trying to unload their stocks of goods and services, which is cutting into profits, which means layoffs, etc. And there it is, a deflationary depression. Add the international component to this, and you have a worldwide depression.

My ignorant guess is that at the first slowdown in consumer spending AG cuts rates once more. 'Cause if consumers stop partying, the game is up. The idea that you can stop economic laws from operating by fiddling with interest rates seems pretty darn arrogant.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:17 - ID#390337)
@Rumpled - Actually not at all.
However I am concerned that you will not. Good luck to you.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:20 - ID#105139)
Suspect Equity Rally
NASDAQ and S&P500 at all time new high but McClellan Oscillator
for BOTH NASDAQ & NYSE are NEGATIVE! This is a possible
technical signal for a TOP in equity markets and could be
bullish for GOLD.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:25 - ID#401237)
OK here is help for PORK!

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- In its latest step to help
struggling hog farmers, the government
announced Monday the purchase of $15
million worth of pork to supply food banks during the holiday season.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:32 - ID#303230)
Another new high in the S&P 500/Gold ratio
No surprise here. Another new all-time high of 4.168 reached today, in the ratio. It truly is shocking how manifest this mania is. The ratio is now 22.5% over year-end 1997; 48.7% over 1968's peak day; 169.4% over 1929's peak day; and, 3,057.5% ( not a misprint ) over the 1980 bottom of 0.132.

I'm beginning to doubt my sanity, which sometimes has been a good indicator of a buying opportunity. ( 'Course my ever-lovin' would be quick to assert that such a condition is omnipresent. ) Seriously, though, actually going counter to that feeling of insanity, when I have despaired of being entirely wrong, has turned out to be a good time for me to invest.

A section of Peter Lynch's book, "One Up On Wall Street" may be appropriate here:

"A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. To me, a price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains from among your performers and your laggards that show promise. "If you can't convince yourself 'When I'm down 25 percent, I'm a buyer' and banish forever the fatal thought 'When Im down 25 percent, I'm a seller,' then you'll never makde a decent profit in stocks."

Another quote, this time from Bernard Baruch, responding to a query on how he made all his money in investments: "I never bought at the exact bottom, and never sold at the exact top."

Listen, folks. We are being afforded an incredible opportunity here. We all know that gold and gold equities are exceedingly cheap. Conversely, we all know that we are in the blow-off stages of an amazing mania. Could the market go higher? Sure. Could gold go lower? Sure. But don't lose sight of where we are in the bigger picture. Gold is amazing cheap RIGHT NOW, and the stock market indexes are amazingly expensive RIGHT NOW. It will not always be thus. Just about the time when you think it may remain this way forever, it'll change.

Hang in there. Buy gold and gold stocks and HOLD THEM. Forget the daily gyrations of a manic and manipulated market. Our time is coming.

One last quote. Sparky Anderson, the voluble and former baseball manager kept a sign on his desk: "Every twenty-four hours, the world turns over onto someone who thought they were on top of it." The converse is also true.

IMHO, Fergie

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:34 - ID#218222)
Here's a scary picture!!! Did anyone hear anything about the latest on clintler?

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:39 - ID#303230)
Whoops! Key word typo omission...
Part of my quote from Peter Lynch left out a key word: "To me, a price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains from among your *WORST* performers and your laggards that show promise."

A key omission considering how gold has performed!


(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:41 - ID#401237)

Thanks, for the pep talk.

This week may be the time to load up.
I will be buying some more BEARX soon.


(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:42 - ID#386245)
The Gold/Pitch Connection
I saw an interesting story on the tele last night.

In a physics lab somewhere ( missed the where ) they have an experiment that has been running for 70 years. They put some pitch ( tar ) in a funnel and let it run through the funnel and DRIP. Now this pitch is pretty viscous stuff. The last drip was ten years ago and they are expecting another one at any moment...soon...maybe. It even looks like a big black drip, just sitting there waiting

The professor in charge has been there for forty years. He said that he hasn't seen a drip yet. He missed seeing the last drip by less than 24 hours, as it happened on a Sunday late at night.

What has all this got to do with the POG ( price of gold ) ?? Heaps!!
Any of you whom have been watching the POG for many years,as I have, will know what I am talking about.

POG to go up at any moment...soon...maybe.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:43 - ID#412172)
Oliver 19:02
My own posting upon this stage of gold is just shy of two years. Tonight when I logged on to Kitco, while waiting for it to load in its slow and familiar way, my thoughts were identical to yours. No doubt many lost a bundle listening to the siren song of the bulls only to be further emaciated when the shorts were squeezed and the bears butchered for short times. My own losses are substantial but survivable. I assume the lack of old timers has to do with their survival rate ( alas ) . I myself evaded disaster with Pegasus, BCMD, BGO, and ECHO, the last two surviving but at much reduced levels. Speculation has little place in a bear market. Buying larger companies than can stand the storm like Nem and ABX I have always done well if I waited for an inflection point and bought well. In fact I have never lost money on these two and have made back over the autumn a good portion of my losses back. No more juniors for me. No more daytrading, no more penny stocks.
At one point over a year ago I made money trading techs margining my metals stocks to do so. It worked and I escaped the October fall by a week. No more margin.......
Now I keep cash waiting till I see the whites of their bear eyes, waiting for the ultimate bottom and then waiting some more. Because I know the house is playing with loaded dice. Because I know the Euro is coming, then the house is divided and there will be two sets of dice. Both loaded perhaps, but they will not roll the same.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:45 - ID#45173)
@NTEOTWAWKI, Gollum, HighRise, All
I cannot disclose the personal investment decisions of various officers of but rumor has it that they are BUYING! And you know what THAT means. Woo hoo!

Thanks for your comments on the site. Any suggestions of things you'd like to see? I registered on HotBot, Excite, InfoSeek, Lycos, Netscape, LookSmart, WebCrawler, and AOL Netfind over the past few days but you won't be able to search and find it for another week or two.

The charts show a certain running out of steam, no?

As I said many months ago, once the deflationary cycle starts, some very perverse events await us. Everyone wonders now why the crazy gummit bought all them cattle in the 1930s and detroyed them while people starved. In the logic of the time, it made sense. Soon the sky will be green and the grass blue, the cats will bark and the dogs will mew.

Speaking of Dr. Seuss.

"President Clinton's Testimony" by Dr. Seuss

I did not do it in a car
I did not do it in a bar
I did not do it in the dark
I did not do it in the park
I did not do it on a date
I did not ever fornicate
I did not do it at a dance
I did not do it in her pants
I did not get beyond first base
I did not do it in her face
I never did it in a bed
If you think that, you've been misled
I did not do it with a groan
I did not do it on the phone
I did not cause her dress to stain
I never boinked Saddam Hussein
I did not do it with a whip
I never fondled Linda Tripp
I never acted really silly
With volunteers like Kathleen Willey
There was one time, with Margaret Thatcher
I chased her 'round, but could not catch her
No kinky stuff, not on your life
I wouldn't, even with my wife
And Gennifer Flowers' tale of woes
Was paid for by my right-wing foes
And Paula Jones, and those State Troopers
Are just a bunch of party poopers
I did not ask my friends to lie
I did not hang them out to dry
I did not do it last November
But if I did, I don't remember
I did not do it in the hall
I could have, but I don't recall
I never did it in my study
I never did it with my dog, Buddy
I never did it to Sox, the cat
I might have -- once -- with Arafat
I never did it in a hurry
I never groped Ms. Betty Currie
There was no sex at Arlington
There was no sex on Air Force One
I might have copped a little feel
And then endeavored to conceal
But never did these things so lewd
At least, not ever in the nude
These things to which I have confessed
They do not count, if we stayed dressed
It never happened with cigar
I never dated Mrs. Starr
I did not know this little sin
Would be retold on CNN
I broke some rules my Mama taught me
I tried to hide, but now you've caught me
But I implore, I do beseech
Do not condemn, do not impeach
I might have got a little tail
But never, never did inhale.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 22:49 - ID#43460)
ERLE, all re SWC
It is scarey isn't it. I keep looking at that S&P ratio and wondering when the bottom will fall out. But at least when I finally sell I can buy more gold stocks!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:10 - ID#225369)
Thanks for the Seuss stuff.

Bartender!---------A double for my bawdy friend!!!!!!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:11 - ID#267298)
What's your thoughts when still holding a stock that's
down 90% ? I guess one way of looking at it is the total
downside risk on the original investment is only 10%.

Go Gold...................

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:16 - ID#346277)
Dow X-Mas Party in full Swing and....all Gold-Bugs are invited! to the...
Gold Blowout Sale
Last Chance
Great Reductions
Final Sale of the Year
If you have missed our November sale, please come to our last sale of the
Free drinks and comestibles provided, thats right folks, step right up
and BEND over to pick up these precious bargains, take as much as you can
Body, Soul, Cash or Personal Cheques only Please!
And for each and everyone fully invested a personal Door Prize!
The Golden Ass by APULEIUS

2-4-2 Oh, Horatio please tell my story!!!!

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:21 - ID#254130)
Partial Transcript of Nov 26 Father Charles Moore,Art Bell Radio.

AB: Alright. So there is probably alot of things about Catholicism that I don't know.
Alot of misconceptions about Catholicism, So, you embrace the thought that, long
ago, this 12th planet, Nibiru ( ? ) did come by, that, in fact, there is a race called the
Annunaki, or whatever you want to call them ... I suppose it really doesn't matter ...
extra-terrestrials who intervened with a creature here at that time ... produced, I
suppose, you certainly believe. by God with a big "G" and intervened genetically to
produce what we are today ... and they did this in order to mine gold.

CM: That's right!

AB: Wow!!!

got God?
;' )

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:26 - ID#286230)
No wonder Buffalo prices seem the same as those at home

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:28 - ID#411198)
Nick@C , EJ
Thanks guys, damned funny.... here's one for you.

Serenity Prayer: Updated

Grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change,
the courage to change the
things I cannot accept,
and the wisdom to hide
the bodies of those people
I had to kill today
because they pissed me off
and also,
help me to be careful of
the toes I step on today,
as they may be connected
to the ass that I may
have to kiss tomorrow.

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:39 - ID#411251)
@all---when buying stock.--U S E S T O P S ! ! !

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:41 - ID#267298)
All: Place your bets
Very little red in Asia tonight, I predict another
big UP day in NA tomorrow.

Anyone else's opinion ?

Go Gold....................

(Mon Dec 21 1998 23:43 - ID#411251)
STOP LOSS--Return another day.