Tuesday December 22, 5:10 pm Eastern Time

US fund managers push levels to historic
lows--MCM

NEW YORK, Dec 22 ( Reuters ) - U.S. money managers pushed cash levels and government holdings to the lowest levels in the history of
MCM's Investor Survey, the company reported Tuesday.

In the week ended December 21, cash levels fell to 2.45 percent of assets, from its low of 2.70 percent in the prior survey.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981222/6t.html

HighRise

I sure hope that you are wrong about a deflationary depression.

You are a master of financial and military history. I salute you sir!.

There once was a president, nicknamed slick
Who thought far, far to much of his dick
Hed manipulate, hed obstruct, hed lie
Many, before speaking out did die

Monica, Jennifer, Kathleen and Paula
Ah, thought slick, Im smarter than all-a-ya
But he will be caught, his ass will be nailed
With any luck slick might even be jailed

He is a psychopath and will be caught
Even though he snickers and thinks NOT
He has become arrogant, aggressive and bold
Unaware that soon, stories will be told

Nothing Changes

12/22/98 -- 7:50 PM

Jewish group criticizes Germany on Nazi pensions

BONN, Germany ( AP ) - A Jewish group criticized a German court Tuesday for granting World War II veterans' disability benefits to two former Nazi SS members.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100a.htm

What a wonderful world, kill 6 million people and you still get a pension and other benefits from the new government. Clintons World

HighRise

very slowly

start...

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qf2eea.htm

very quietly

start...

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qf2fce.htm

if you haven't already

slowly...
quietly...

Oldman
.. three million would have been nice ..

for Oldman ..
Agreed that Linclon ranks among the worst of
destructive horrid tyrants .. But Hollywood loves
and has loved him as far back as you can go .. with
the exception of 'Birth of a Nation" and maybe GWTW
he is portrayed as the saviour of the country ..
with kindly soft voiced intelligent ( looking ) actors
playing the role ( Fonda, R Massey ) .
Hollywood loves Clinton too. But then they loved
Stalin in the 1940s... and 50 years later they are
still smarting over the McCarthy investigation.
Hollywood maybe more than CNN, has the agenda for
controlling the mindset of Worldwide Joe sixpack.

We still fightin the Civil War? Goes to prove when blood is shed people don't gorget so quick. When I was a kid in Illinois people talked about the BIg war and they didn't mean WW1. We had a war museum with all sorts of artifacts picked from the battlefields, gruesome. I went there almost every week, kind of got the feel of things, it made a life-long impression.

The war was probably unnecessary, in retro-spect, Lincoln was a mean man, and I've never heard one black person express any gratitude for the scrafice made by all those" bluebellies".

Unfortunate, but the Yankees owe no apology to anybody, the men of the north participated in one of the most self-less acts in human history. Could be that's what was wrong about it, but that's a fault we didn't understand at the time.

The outcome is a USA, that's good but maybe not good enough considering the scrafice on both sides.

A LONG fecking time ago...... ( in my best Foghorn Leghorn imitation ) ...........Ah say BOY!.......git ovah it!...........now wheres ma mint julup...................

away........... ( sheesh ) ...

@onelove......Jah.........Rastafari..... ( smoke signals ) ........aaaaaahhhh....

go gold..... ( klunk ) .....

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2557724037-3b6

Although the S&P hit an all-time high today, there were more new 52 wk lows than highs for both the NYSE and OTC. . . . serious divergence.

IMHO the second confederacy will encompass most of the midwest as well as the South and will be open to all races and creeds as long as they are honest, hard working and self reliant. What we will lose in compeditive advantage by embracing the gold standard and rejecting fractional banking we will gain by having low rates of taxation and no dole.

what's a Scrafice? Must be impotent ( foghorn again ) ........ya said it TWICE;- )

away.......from the kooky kitco



btw, might I suggest to ya'all that ya go to that URL i just posted. There is some rather ominous stuff being said........... ( BIG ugh ) .................

NickO@CanobeerO - I hope you ain't talking of SLOWLY accumulating.............uh...................er.............gold shares................................ ( BIGGER ugh ) ........................ ( grin ) .

buried hatchet?

start accumulating...

on these tidbits.....

-------------------------------

"In regard to the European Central Bank, we do not

anticipate their policies will provide any meaningful

incentives to change the overall outlook for gold,"

--------------------------------

or.......

-------------------------------

But the gold market remains concerned that more European

central bank reserves may be sold after the introduction of the

single European currency from January 1, 1999,

-------------------------------

how 'bout.....

------------------------------

"One problem is that there has been no meaningful supply

response to the extended period of low prices," said Merrill

Lynch's O'Neill.

"A series of technological innovations have allowed the

cost of production to steadily decline in key producing nations

in the western world including South Africa," he said.

"Latest data indicate that the western world cost of

production is now running about $230 per ounce," he said.

"Thus much lower prices would be needed for an extended

period of time, probably about 12 months, to see meaningful

production cutbacks," he said.

------------------------------------

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...........

------------------------------------

What do ya'all think 'bout dat???

away.......to await the myriad of responses

curiouser&curiouser.....

for Allan ..
Looking at the Economist .. it shows that a month
ago Japanese Gommont bonds yielded 0.9 % and about
1.12% on december 12. ( These numbers are a little
out of date now ) ..
This means ( roughly speaking ) that Japanese Gommont
bond holders lost ( 1 - ( 0.9/1.12 ) ) *100 or 20% of
their dough in a month.
The Euro is coming in at 3%. This is about 10 %
under the prevailing short term german/french
eurocurrency rates .. This must impact on US rates
sooner or later or the $ will go through the roof
at its present 90-day level of 5 % interest.
The rise in Japanese rates must signal the end of
the yen carry .. does the forthcoming Fall in US
and European rates foretell the end of the Gold
carry ..
Someone ( Rhody ?? ) has explained the gold carry
in depth repeatedly. The Interest rate piece of
this little number is at the heart of the direct
inverse link between rates and the gold price ..
I think we should spend a little time on this ..
program it .. and build it into our computers or
at least into our brains.

w-a-i-t.......u-h-h-u-h

a-w-a-y

-

start accumulating SiO2.

Kaplan is optimistic. I notice that we have talked about the Indians and the bonds before here but the news about Japan has been hardly touched upon. Could it be that our recent off topic talk is the contrary indicator I have suspected?

Merrill Lynch tentacles reach far and wide. Don't believe everything you read. My golf/wink nerve is tingling and telling me something about gold.

Wink museum now complete. Waiting for imported wink. Anyone else care to donate??

...to reduce the cost of production from $290 to $230 in six months.
By June '99 the cost of production will be $170. Where can I buy Merrill Lynch shares??

For the 2000 Democratic convention may I suggest a song by the Cars. I think the title was "Its All I Can do " and it has a phrase that fits the current state of national politics regarding clinton...

sings Rick Okasic ( sp? ) "when I was crazy, I thought you were great"

what Merrill Lynch says about gold, if I am not mistaken they only turned bullish on the last major runup when it was approaching $800.00oz, of course I think January is going to hammer the stock market and all sorts of really bad things are going to start happening in 99 right from the gitgo...

These raccoons outside my window think I am being good to them by feeding them so much that they are the size of large air-conditioners... little do they know I have the opening of my oven stenciled on the window so I know when they have hit baking size...urban survival don't ya know...

Anyone who has studied the history of the period is aware that Lincoln suffered from the very late stages of syphilis, this may have clouded his judgement on many issues. Smokin' hemp again EH?

Glad to hear you have organized your Y2K emergency rations. I have never tried baked raccoon, though fried kangaroo is very nice. My question is this--what the fork are raccoons doing on the island that is long??? Do they build their logjams on 5th Avenue??

maybe I'm missing something...

when lease rates were low, it was suggested that gold could not rally. Now that rates are rising we are being told that gold is going to drop because lease rates indicate increased demand by short sellers for leased gold.

Something doesn't add up. when lease rates were low I suggested that they were low because of lack of interest by short sellers. That apparently was an astute observation. May I also make the observation that if banks/central banks were trying to manipulate the price, then lease rates woud not rise for sort sellers now. Why discourage with higher rates what you are desperately trying to encourage? No?

beautiful places in the USA...really...there are still enough places for animals to hide and thrive...I will dig up some links...back in a couple...

and good grief...the whole darn place ain't paved ya know...

For EB
Your dire comments on gold prices due sales by CB
etc are appreciated .. but Ive heard them before..
I go back to this .. Platinum and silver prices
are unrelated to possible activities by CB .. and there
are no appreciable above ground stocks ( at least not
in the same way as gold ) .. yet ..
As of august 1997 the ratio of platinum to gold prices
was about 1.36.. as of January 1st 1997 it was 1.27..
and it is now 1.187. Thus the gold price has gained
on the platinum price by 1.36/1.187 or about 14 %
over the last 16 or so months ..
Against silver .. the ag/au ratio was about 51 as
of January this year versus about 58 now.. so gold
has gained against silver by 58/51 or about 14 %
in 1998.
In the first half of 1997 the story was quite
the reverse .. the plat/gold ratio rose to 1.36
for about 1.0 !! ( a low base ) in January 1997.
.. then it started falling back ..
During 1997 the gold silver ratio fell from about
76 ( a high level ) to 51 by year end ( a thumping 50 %
which many took as a bull market in silver ) .. then it
started corrected ..
.. Therefore whatever force that HAS been acting on
gold has been acting upon silver and platinum even
more fiercely over the last 12 to 16 months ..
.. this force acted differently in 1997 ..
... CB sales are not the explanation .. nor are
above ground stocks ..

... so tell me EB old chap .. what is the explanation ??
.. wee sheesh awayyyyy..

http://cyberactive-1.com/html/racoon.html

Raccoons
Raccoons live about 5 years in the wild and weigh about 8 to 20 lbs.
However some male raccoons have weighed in at over 40 lbs.
Nocturnal by nature, they can usually be seen at night, trashing
your trash or just running the streets of Long Island.
Raccoons have been known to travel in pairs and they don't look both
ways. So give them a brake, Slow down!! 30 mph on side roads. Please.

for Hugo ..
I suffer from the same set of
conundrums ..

Just type in a subject, and faster than you can say "Go Gold!", you get a mother lode of pictures. It returned over 400 photos when I typed in "Canberra". Try typing in "Gold", or or "guns", or "caves", and see what you get! http://image.altavista.com/cgi-bin/avncgi/

http://www.geocities.com/RainForest/Vines/4892/

I live 20 minutes from this picture of Lake Burley Griffin and Parliament House. Did you know that Canabeera was designed by a Yank??

http://www.ideal.net.au/~napiorkowe/Pic13.html

Sherlock I ain't..........

Thanks JD, once again, for the excellent info. I shall put this in my pipe and smoke deeply. My answer to your query?

I dunno.

This whole thing kinda gives me the heebie-jeebies....and I can't put my finger on it. I just have this pervasive feeling that gold is headed for doom........but on a good note..........I think it is the last doom for a while..................... ( and I'll be ready ) .........uh huh.

away



Tol#1, Nick - I don't hang my coat on what Merrill and his Lynch boys say..............never have...........never will.

and my eyes 'bout bugged outta my head. AOL 138 in after hours trading ( post November 2:1 split ) . In the measly 12 weeks since the early Sept low of 70 ( pre-split ) this deranged tulip has quadrupled in price !! Sh*t, if gold would go up a lousy 5% in the next month I think I'd die from shock. Of course that useless barbaric junkyard relic ain't worth a crap. I still like it, though. Tol 1, better adjust my straight-jacket.

What if I told you that the bullion banks in europe were closed since dec 1 therfore no real gold trading since then.So your efforts to drive the price of gold was useless.would you believe me.Believe me that is the truth. that is why gold shares cannot appretiate.It's a lay down short.I'm sure a lot of people at kitco knew and made money.TOMO....

What if I told you that the bullion banks in europe were closed since dec 1 therfore no real gold trading since then.So your efforts to drive the price of gold was useless.would you believe me.Believe me that is the truth. that is why gold shares cannot appretiate.It's a lay down short.I'm sure a lot of people at kitco knew and made money.TOMO....

http://search.corbis.com/default.asp?id=JF001662&s=

awaaaaaay.........



Crystal Ball - how are those AOL puts anyway? ouch :- ( You should go to Vegas instead, at least you can drink for free while losing money............ ( just kidding buddy ) .........

heck of alot of photographs that do the Island that is Long justice...no there sure ain't...sure is a bunch of standard stuff...I will have to search more when my eyes are a little more open...bbml...

thud

gold runs in cycles.the next natural cycle is in jan 1999.Be there or be sqaure.The bottom after x-mas is usually a good one be there.Impaired and honest.

I typed in 'Tutankhamen' looking for a picture of the greatest art object in the history of the world. I came up with nothing, nada, bugger all. So I typed in 'King Tut' and got a picture of men carrying a box out of a tomb. Talk about the dumbing down of the internet. Must've spelled it wrong. Goin' to find a new engine.

Anyone got a nice picture of King Tut's death mask??? Made of gold and lapis lazuli you know. The most beautiful thing I have ever seen ( and I've seen a lot ) .

Be ready to buy the majors in early january.Don't vasilate.Just buy.......

is just noise.Funds BUY IN JAN.

http://www.geocities.com/Paris/Metro/6264/tut.html

Tutankhamen's coffin:
http://alaike.lcc.hawaii.edu/sg/101images/cof.html
Tutankhamen's throne:
http://alaike.lcc.hawaii.edu/sg/101images/tut3.html

If they don't then the producers will freak.Remember what i am saying.this is the the truth. How would they get rid of their product otherwise........

tit for tat.Rub my leg and I'll rub yours......

I only have a limited amount of funds, which majors do you suggest? I would prefer North American.

If your canadian obviously its barrick and placer dome.

It's called liquidity for the momemtum players.

barrick and placer dome

It's a canadian thing.

these will run first.

For Tuesday 22nd Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR-------------5.62--------------5.25-------------5.09-----------------5.06

Mean GoldLR------3.90---------------3.89-------------3.68-----------------3.41
Gold Lease Rate---1.72---------------1.36-------------1.41-----------------1.65
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.07 ) ------- ( 0.00 ) ------- ( + 0.02 ) ----------- ( + 0.05 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.00--------------3.25-------------2.35-----------------2.00
Silver Lease Rate---1.62--------------2.00--------------2.74-----------------3.06
( Change ) --------- ( + 0.06 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( + 0.03 ) ------------ ( + 0.06 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.90-------------4.77---------------4.76---------------4.72
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
Regards.............Dabchick

If gold is running 100 shares is not a bad position.

Here's a picture of the Boy King's Golden Mask. Note the picture of the Desert Fox on the same page. http://real-tennis.com/history/african_origins.html

A profit is a profit.The rest is hype.

Try again-- http://www.real-tennis.com/history/african_origins.html

this mean additional selling today?

DON'T BUY SECONDARYS UNLESS GOLD GOES THROUGH $300 EXAMPLE AGNICO-EAGLE.

I disagreed with rhodys thoughts regarding lease rates, however the changes in the price of gold seem to indicate that rhody is correct. Have you read his posts regarding the lease rates and do you agree with them? or is it more complicated yet? he basiclly says the higher the lease rate the lower the price of gold will go due to short sellers borrowing gold.

Sure, go ahead and laugh. EB-skiy. My AOL puts all expired worthless ( No duh! ) . Who knew AOL's P/E could go to infinity? Wanna be there the day the internets go chop-a-sockie. Gots hopes for my Jan PDG 10 calls. As Steve Tyler puts it, I can "dream on." Tol 1's cheerin' me on, and me Dad's recovering well from surgery. What more could anyone ask for?

Remember gold stocks are a trade. take your profit and run.

when you have taken a profit don't be afraid to give them some on the downturn.

wE ARE NOW NEAR OR AT A BOTTOM OF A CYCLE.iT IS TIME TO BUY.

SHORTS ARE COVERING.LET THEM COVER. BUY WITH THEM.

Don't chase the stock. let it come to you.

The end is just like the beginning

suckers always sell at the bottom.So why rush.

In the midst of prophets, we are in loss

Though their tongues be silver, there hearts are black as pitch

Northern Illinois right next to the Wisconsin border but eh your terms don't sound too harsh,eh maybe I could fit in somewhere?

Funny , a gold standard seems pretty necessary for " good government" George Soror was talking to Charlie Rose to-nite and mention the Breton Woods agreement twice. Like it was something we would have to re-consider.

An individual who thinks that investors should keep all or part of their assets in the form of gold. The tendency to recommend gold nearly always stems from the gold bug's expectation of rapid or uncontrolled growth of the money supply accompanied by high rates of inflation. Some gold bugs also predict economic collapse with gold becoming the standard payment.

No one wil ever rember I promise you that.

I AM WONDERING WHY GOLD & SILVER BEARLY MOVED DURING THIS LAST WEAK WITH WAR & CLINTON'S PROBLEMS. WELL I GUESS I WILL JUST KEEP BUYING GOLD & SILVER EVERY WEEK. I WILL STOP WHEN IM BROKE OR GOLD & SILVER STARTS TO JUMP BY LEAPS & BOUNDS. HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYONE

Mideast heats up--
http://www.israelwire.com/index.html

Barry
For feck's sake turn off your caps lock. {We know you can do it.}

WHO IS BARRY

Let's entertain some radical ideas of freedom and controlling one's own destiny in the best traditions of Toqueville's and Jefferson's America. The four counties of Kings, Queens, Nassau & Suffolk add up to 5 million people - twice the population of ALL the colonies when our nation was founded. If your Island seceded from New York State and the USA and a "national" government was formed for the entire Island - OR it was left to fend for itself after Y2K dissolves NY and USA; If the Island then divided itself into THIRTEEN {13} small "sovereign states" within that loose and limited federation - the ideal of 200 years ago rather than today's federal monstrosity; If those states ranged from maybe 100,000 people {similar to some of the rural colonies & territories when they became states} to at most a million {since some urban areas of the Brooklyn or Queens may not lend themselves to smaller divisions - even though it may be better}; If you, in your familiarity with the Island, could draw lines to form those sovereign states - where would you do so? Exact placement is not important because, once proposed, the people in those areas would fine tune the lines down to the block level. What natural or cultural boundaries would aid in drawing those lines?

The above concept is more than just academic interest but rather a hope for a return to smaller governments *closer* to the people than we have now. No doubt residents of Suffolk county feel lost or powerless within the entirety of New York State. In the east let's propose a new state of "Hampton" whose capital would be Riverhead and whose western boundary would be N-S along the longitude 73 {more or less - the particulars known only to those living there}. The goal being 13 new states. Let's further propose that the flag of this nation to be a light green silhouette of the Island set against a field of deep blue.

Just consider the concept of having state legislators within arm's reach at Riverhead rather than up in Albany. With a state assembly of a few dozen legislators each little town of 5,000 people could have its own state representative instead of presently sharing him or her with over 100,000 other folks. The whole state would likely be only 100,000 people. The governor could be a nearby neighbor you could talk to - what a novel idea!

Any further suggestions from other residents of the Island that is Long are welcome at swyers@amigo.net Thanks folks!

you will probably get normal low volume selling through the x-mas period it does not mean anything.It's a seasonal thing. The funds have gone home for the holidays.Stay cool.Forget about it.

BARUCH HA SHEM

Who is Barry?

Barry is a prat.


Barry is a liar.

Barry is a false-faced christian


Barry is you.


Next question......

Thanks for the cheerleading...this batters group needs all it can get. Think the wisest thing to remeber is that the action in the remainder of '98 is pretty meaningless. Everybody has gone home. Oh well, the New Year brings its share of promises - hope more are fullfilled for the Kitcoites though I am reminded to be careful what I wish for.

What are these shares telling us???

I'm sorry if I offended anyone that was not my intention.

MY NAME IS NOT BARRY. YOU ARE MISTAKEN ABOUT WHO I AM. I HOPE YOU EDUCATE YOURSELF IN THIS MATTER

Iknow you are into the deflation thing. You may be right,but the way I think does not take that into concideration.January is a manipulated month for gold.Gold goes up to rid the mines of excess inventory.Thats all,surely that may not happen this time.But we have history on our side.

tomo
as my athletics coach used to say...when ya stopped running the hurdles ya don't need to take ' a fences. Glad to have you here.

Barry
Why don't you tell those who do not know, what the English translation is, of your ever so humble handle. I think you owe an apology to the fine people who believe as you do, but who don't let it colour their postings here. This is a gold site. You are welcome to publish your views on gold. Your belief system is best left to your place of worship. BTW I have many quotes from your Bible about silver and gold I am happy to give to you.....

Just ask...

WISHING ALL KITCO MEMBERS A GOLDEN CHRISTMAS!!! HOPE ALL HAVE DONE THEIR CHRISTMAS SHOPPING! BEMA AT $.75. WOW!

I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO SPRING ALREADY!!!!

Barry
lookee here, I guess you missed it. Original thoughts and crazy thoughts are always welcome at kitco.

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981212.183531.auratoree.htm
Wherein all is revealed

Baruch

It's pretty rich calling someone a liar, old bean. Why don't you
come out of the shadows and fess up to doing that which you
accuse others of? Call yourself a christian? I thought that meant
telling the truth? You speak half truth and half lies and, now, read
your own words........


Date: Sat Dec 12 1998 14:36
BARUCH HA SHEM ( FROM MOUNTAIN TOP PROPHECY SITE )

DEAR MR. LEFTY KIWI : I WOULD LIKE TO GO ON RECORD TO SAY,
YOUR MS LINDA NEWKIRK IS A FALSE PROFIT, & A DANGER TO THOSE
WHO KNOW NOT THE BIBLE. SHE SPEAKS HALF TRUTH & HALF
LIES,WHICH IS WORSE THAN ALL LIES BECAUSE THE HALF TRUTH
FOOLS THOSE WHO ARE NOT WELL GROUNDED IN THE TRUTH. ALONG
WITH YOUR MESSAGE I DID NOT SEE YOUR OPINION IT......


{Let us now cast our minds back to....}


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:20 BARUCH HA SHEM ( LOOKING TO G-D )
ID#258302:
WHERE DO WE LOOK 4 HELP IN ALL THIS MESS? DO YOU KNOW THAT
WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS G-D WILL BE R SALVATION. IF WE STUDY THE
WORD OF G-D WILL GOLD BE HELPFUL IN THE DAYS OF TROUBLE?


{to which I enquired....}


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:32 aurator ( ) ID#25490:
BARUCH HA SHEM
HEY FELLA!!! ARE YOU RELATED TO BERNARD MANASSES BARUCH?
there's really no need to shout. There are many here who can ignore
you just as easily if you use ordinary case typing.


{and Eddie chipped in....}


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 05:45 Ersel ( SHOUTING..... ) ID#230376:
auracious is correct.....it hurts the eyedrums and the
earballs......gottago bbml after a glorious golden sunrise........
eddie@fingers_in-ears_gone


{Whereupon you excused yourself on the grounds.....}


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:08
BARUCH HA SHEM ( NO IM NOT RELATED ) ID#258302:
MY LAPTOP IS MESSED UP THAT IS Y I USE MY CAPS. SORRY PLEASE
IGNORE ME IF IT IS A PROBLEM HAVE A NICE DAY. ONCE AGAIN
SORRY


{then, by the grace of aurator....}


Date: Fri Oct 09 1998 06:20
aurator ( ) ID#25490: Baruch If your puter is messed up, why
apologies are always accepted in these parts.
You might like to ponder on this:
"Happy is the man that findeth wisdom and getteth understanding.
For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver,
and the gain thereof than fine gold." proverbs ( 3:13-14 )


{But, wait, whats this.....? Its a miracle!!!! You can unlock your
caps...Alley oo la la!!!....}


Date: Tue Oct 27 1998 07:35
BARUCH HA SHEM ( nov-25 ) ID#258302:
nov-25 is when last year gold went under 300 for the first time in
a long time. i predicted it 6 monthes earlier on that day. maybe i
got lucky -but i think we will see a big change nov 25 this year. all
i know is it does not matter when it goes up - because it will .
sooner or later because judging from the bible we are heading 4 a
finacial disaster. ......



{So, Barry, imagine my disappointment today [op cit] when you
started pointed the bone, using your caps lock key once more ......I
WOULD LIKE TO GO ON RECORD TO SAY, YOUR MS LINDA NEWKIRK IS
A FALSE PROFIT, & A DANGER TO THOSE WHO KNOW NOT THE BIBLE.
SHE SPEAKS HALF TRUTH & HALF LIES,WHICH IS WORSE THAN ALL
LIES BECAUSE THE HALF TRUTH FOOLS THOSE WHO ARE NOT WELL
GROUNDED IN THE TRUTH.}



I think you should take your truth to another site where it may
be better appreciated...


-------------------------

Truth is the trial of itself
And needs no other touch,
And purer than the purest gold,
Refine it ne'er so much.
Ben Jonson.


And the meaning of Barry is ???????

YOU MOST HAVE PRIDE THAT YOU ARE SOMEBODY. BUT I AM NOT WHO YOU THINK I AM. MY NAME IS NOT BARRY, NOR AM I A CHRISTIAN. SO THERE4 I WILL NOT ARGUE WITHYOU ABOUT THIS MATTER. I HOPE YOU FIND WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING FOR. I HAVE MORE IMPORTANT THINGS TO DO RATHER THAN ARGUE WITH SOMEONE WHO DOES NOT WHICH TO ACCEPT THE TRUTH. A FOOL DISPISES WISDOM. GET ON WITH YOUR LIFE AND HAVE A GOOD DAY!

Gooday from the chilly Midwest....easy mate.....remember that some people run amok and see the world through rose colored blinders... My best to you and yours ,always, but especially during the holidays !

eddie

Baruch'
Shalom.
aurator

any posting I make is purely my own judgement.It has nothing to do with price actions up or down with regards to POG or the price of gold mining stocks.I trade for myself.I am only a small investor who has developed certain preconceived notions on how to succeed for myself.

I do have strong opions at times and I hope I can voice them at times without anyone getting offended.

Eddie
I hope it's not too chil in the Mid West. I just saw on te gnus that merka has just had a bite of winter, on te winter solstice too.

The aphorism"

"As te days grow longer, te nights grow colder probably applies up your way too."

Imagine what te next few weeks might be like next year, if there's no power up there.

I HAVE ( pardon the shout ) experienced this chili-ness for more years than Icare to 'memBERRRRRRRRR. Still trying to find a generator and am on several lists. Seems that there are more people aware of the problem than I thought. Generac and Briggs & Stratton are both backlogged but I was told to expect delivery in 10 days or so. Yes, I am concerned that not enough of the populace will take the necessary precautions to get gold .........grub,etc.

You lucky devils down under are probably planning a beach party this weekend.......Oh,well....I'll just play in the snow........sigh....

The only reason I jumped on the trade sanctions thing was because they aren't going even to talk about it untill next march.

None of us really care who you are, get a life and stope trying to start something you cant finish.

I don't think anyone is angry at you. There is a different disagreement going on, larger than gold.

dittos !!!!

I guess he dosen't want explanations about gold stock trading on kitco.I understand.

Thanks.

Just take Nick@ C 's advice and accumulate ( quietly ) all PMs....bbl

No one care who you are. If you have nothing to say dont say it here.

Thank you, but don't confuse me with RUSH!!!! He's the man!

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1020.htm

Big deal. I guess it's better than gold down in London though.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981222/bba.html

I've been thinking long and hard about this impeachment deal. Now I know the answer. I think he should be censured and then he and Hillary work full time in a soup kitchen for the next two years. They looked to much in character in the photo-op which I saw for Christmas. That would show some true colors.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981222/pegasus_go_1.html

tomo: earlier you said: " any posting I make is purely my own judgement.It has nothing to do with price actions up or
down with regards to POG or the price of gold mining stocks.I trade for myself.I am only a
small investor who has developed certain preconceived notions on how to succeed for
myself."

That is all well and good, but to be allowed to post at Kitco you must be right all the time like everyone else. None of this personal, subjective stuff. Just remember, be wrong once and out you go! ( ;- )

aurator: The Mexican weather report: Chilie today, hot tamale.

Bill & Hillary ALREADY work in a soup kitchen.

I was in Tiajuana once, met a hot tamale with a frijole!

What mistakes.I outlined a trading stadegy that works, show me the faults.

GOLD: Prices slipped on technically inspired selling by commodity funds, analysts said. The February gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.20 to close at $289 a troy ounce. Tony Caen, senior bullion dealer at Credit Lyonnais Rouse in New York, said the commodity funds "are looking for a test of the yearly lows, and
they're betting it's going to go there, with nothing to stop it like Far Eastern off-take." He said the technical downside target for gold is $270 an ounce.

This is a coordinated attack on the POG, with negative news releases, negative analysis from places like PEI, increasing short sales by commodity funds, all timed to coincide with end of year tax loss selling by longs.

When do we get to win? Or should I just give up and buy Amazing.Aol.Ebay.always goes up.com????

YOU ARE WRONG.I DID NOT START ANYTHING. BUT I SURE DO NOT BACKDOWN WHEN IM RIGHT. I HOPE WE CAN GET ALONG. I WILL BE BACK IN ISRAEL SOON SO I WILL NOT BE RETIRED. I HOPE THE WORLD CAN LEARN TO GET ALONG. IT WOULD MAKE THINGS SO MUCH BETTER. TIME 4 ME TO GET SOME SLEEP. YOU ALL HAVE A NICE DAY & HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL. SHALOM

Tolerant- what a great idea! I like your stencil idea . . . I've got a mind to roast up a couple of those racoons myself! They knock over our garbage cans so the lid falls off and they can feast on the delicacies within. I got gabage cans with locking handles, but they learned how to operate those- after they had knocked the can over of course. They still like to have the can on its side. I now have to put a bungee cord over the lid, which they aren't strong enough to get off. They haven't figured out yet that they could chew the bungee cord in half and then get the lid off, but I'm sure they will!

They're the masters of urban survival you know- we could probably learn something from 'em.

Nick- beavers are the beasts here that build logjams to dam up a stream & create a pond. They like to eat bark and other tough vegetable matter.
Racoons live in trees ( and attics and closed up chimney casings, as I can attest ) and come out at night to forage for anything and everything. They like fish, clams, fruit, vegetables . . . the kind of stuff that can be found in people's garbage cans. It's funny, they like to eat garbage, but they wash their food off. They take it to a local stream or fountain or whatever & scrub it with their paws.

- Steve

I am not trying to pick a fight with you just think you should be a little nicer, I will hopefully visit Ireal in May, if the elections go well and BIBI stay in power and keeps telling Yassir to kiss his Tuchas.

Sorry I was typing too fast ISREAL I spell better than I type as many on KITCO can affirm. SHALOM to you.

I know. I am talking full time. There would be more than one dip in the soup can and off to business as usual. Can you get the stars and gold lined up just for a couple of months so that I can get well? Thanks senor.

My dear Mike,I am a born again christian who believes in JESUS as GOD,GOD as GOD,and the HOLY SPIRIT as GOD.Does this present a problem.

Meant to say insiders.

http://www.dailyrocket.com/inside/

Today is the day. Now is the time and now is the hour.

Bounce or drop?

http://www.securitytrader.com/precmetals.htm

Inquiring minds want to know . . . What does Namaste mean?

- Steve

BTW: squirrel, forget about L.I. seceeding, even to form a new state. The FEDS have stated that they will use force against anyone who tries such a thing. This was said in the course of an interview about how the Canadian secessionists comapred to their US counterparts such as the Texans.

As far as the Feds are concerned, only they have the power to carve up states ( as when Lincoln hived off the Pro-Union North-Western part of Virgina to give himself another state. ) Of course, this is the opposite of what your constitution says, but the feds seem to belive in the older political principle of "might makes right."

07:39 BRITAIN'S PETER MANDELSON, TRADE AND INDUSTRY SECRETARY, RESIGNS.

No forex market reaction yet, if any at all to still come.

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnOb40b8ZtJiZnZKWoty&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/press_briefing.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Think about it. Gold is going no where except biased to the downside. So why is it considered a precious metal? Comments?

Regarding IRA accounts:

You can put any type of bullion or bullion coins into your IRA.

The metal is fully paid for and stored with a trustee.

If you need further info feel free to e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net

Fiveliter's post regarding this is good. ACT will act as the trustee
But storage is not with Wilmington Trust. Wilmington is no longer in the storage business. ACT will keep the metal on a segregated basis. You can instruct the trustee to purchase the bars or coins from any dealer. I don't know about the fund TYoung posted, but it seems that the gold is theirs, not yours, you just buy shares. In an IRA, you own the metal outright and can demand delivery at any time. If you take delivery, it will be considered a distribution and you will be taxed on the metal.

OK

Projected low for HUI 50,XAU 35,and gold 270.
Contractions are going to be more severe,cash crunch will
hit American shores when Japanese long bonds will become
competitive.Watch for the March Yen to rise above 90.
Japanese government forced to raise rates,Yen carry trade
about to be finished.

News Flash!! The old wooden trestle at Dead Man's Curve is reprted to have collapsed as Casey Jones' fully loaded gold train was making the bend. More details to follow...

News Flash!! The old wodden trestle at Dead Man's Curve is reprted to have collapsed as Casey Jones' fully loaded gold train was making the bend. More details to follow...

Yesterdays morning post "major rally in xau" expecting 2-4 pt rally in next 3to4 hr.I would say you were wrong.According to Mike Sheller you are gone from this site.You were wrong. Please do not post here any more.SORRY!!!!!What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

I have been waiting for this news...your going to get me to $280-5 whether you wanted to or not!

Tom

you talk in riddles too often, sir.

still, it does make for more interesting reading. :- )

Following time frames is the key,3 to 4 hours would have made
you money,the 2 point rise didn't materialize.
"Trust to time:it is the wisest of all councillors"
Have a good day tomo.: )

Countries such as China also are expected to use the euro to diversify foreign reserves now held in dollars, which could eventually reduce the American currency's dominance in Asia.

``It goes without saying that the bias toward the U.S. dollar in Asia is likely to diminish over time,'' said Mushkat. ``The only question is how long that will take and how far it will go.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/981223/the_euro_a_1.html

CNBC Jim Kramer, there is going to be a shortage of treasuries after yr 2000...illiquidity in the treasury market

Did anyone else hear this? Does this mean demand will exceed availability or is the US going to slow down its borrowing?

HighRise

Hey Mr. tomo, sir. I hope you noticed Mr. Sheller's " ( ;- ) " which indicated he was speaking with tongue in cheek. Just joking around and pulling your leg, nothing serious.

Yes, I could have said "this morning just before the opening of the New York market, the price of gold dropped below support levels triggering sell stops, dropping prices to three month lows, and threatening further declines.", but that seemed kind of dry.

In any case, I think now we must watch silver to lead the precious metals back up as we approach the new year.

We are all wrong at some time. The point
is to be able to justify the reasons
for the position we took and also be
able to produce an explanation as to
why we were wrong. I find Cyclists' work
very useful.

Bear in mind this is a period of time
where the tape is painted. While the cat
is away the mice will play. One needs to
keep an open mind as to the direction
gold will take after the end of December.
I think a meaningful break on the XAU
below 60 will augur a major stock market
plunge. The weakness in the long bond
may be warning of this. Seasons Greetings!

We are all wrong at some time. The point
is to be able to justify the reasons
for the position we took and also be
able to produce an explanation as to
why we were wrong. I find Cyclists' work
very useful.

Bear in mind this is a period of time
where the tape is painted. While the cat
is away the mice will play. One needs to
keep an open mind as to the direction
gold will take after the end of December.
I think a meaningful break on the XAU
below 60 will augur a major stock market
plunge. The weakness in the long bond
may be warning of this. Seasons Greetings!

Tom if you like 280 gold, then you will love the next 12 months.

Hope not but my time frame is a bit longer in any case. Japan funny money policies may surprise us all in the next eight to ten weeks.

We watch this old gold market together.

Tom

There are no spaces following the periods at the end of your sentences.
This makes me highly suspicious of you and what shenanigans you are capable of.

Can't be too careful about these things.
Either you are hoarding all these spaces,
Or they have gathered together in a gaggle
And filled your head with their emptiness.

Oh Well. What's a space or two twixt goldbugs, no? Yes? Indeedy so
And I am deadly serious about this, I do not joke, nor do I banter
As serious as a colon polyp, me, and not to be trifled with.
Put thy spaces back in.. and go and non-space no more..

OK

Back from Bangkok having not even lurked for a few days. Only to find....Arghhh - it's a wipe out...less than 290. Less than I paid for it all !!!

Well perhaps not that bad. For we patient little goldbugs for whom a 1-2% move is a wipeout or a cause for euphoria aren't used to seeing real moves anymore. What a propaganda game these last 2 weeks.

Can't help thinking though we're all trying to analyse external effects when trying to second guess future price movements. Rather than trying to take a more scientific look at the psychological drivers that, in combination, might tilt the balance of gold's perception away from the commodity and back to a reliable store of value/wealth.

BUT - it will only move when the strains entailed holding the fiat currency/Equities'R'Us mentality makes it MORE desireable for the powers that be to return to it. And then ONLY TEMPORARILY - until they invent a new set of international Rules to enable them to return chastened we hope - to their games. It's the will of the power-wielders against the force of nature.

The good news. The POG has nothing to do with commodity demand if in the face of rising sales the price keeps dropping - on propaganda news adn CB mainipulation. THEREFORE...gold must be SEE by those powers as a challange to be tamed. ( Something we round here all know )

But I still believe there will be a pop in gold to hold their toes to the fire - sometime mid 1999. Though in all likelyhood the POG will NOT be over 390 by the time the hopeful ones expect to cash in their DEC99360 Options.

But June - November 99 will be an Indian summer for gold followed by another gold/economic winter into 2000. ( My humble prediction of the week ! ) I plan to ride this wave and sell appropriately. Finger on a hair trigger. COMMENTS ?

is needed for the decline of spot gold at the same time the US Pres has been impeached and is about to undergo a trial--albeit a short one and to no real effect. What happened to the "safe haven during times of trouble" notion?

short 16 9/16

"S&P 500 ///// If not mistaken, now at all time high. A primary driver of USD in the past has been bullish US equities. Now we have major indices at significant highs and we see the USD much, much lower..."

Source: Forex trader quote

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/dec23_royaloakdebt.html

Things are shaping up nicely. Timing was off but the down side objectives are in site.

XAU - 58.50 +/- .25

Feb. Gold - 277 -272

Mar. Silver - 4.40 ( 50/50 chance )

The XAU and metals are out of balance in their trading patterns. Either the XAU is going to come roaring back or the metals are going to drop like a rock.

Covered and long 16 5/16

( spoken in a Telly Savalas lilt ) : "EB-baby, like yous request, eh? Waaaiiit until Christmas ... and sos we have. Who loves you, EB? Spuds and GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD!! ( whereever he/she maybe be this icy North Tejas morning. ) And now, without further ado: Bomb please."

awaaaaaay.........

Spud, letting a little hot air out our brother on the Left Coast

EB- how are those Disney longs anyway? 30 1/4? ouch :- ( You should go to Vegas instead, at least you can drink for free while losing money............ ( just kidding buddy ) ......... love ya EBer's

While we all watch ~ and wait ~ this slide out, all that is except the intrepid cyclist, someone out there must have picked this up and would like to share their insight and analysis with us: http://quicken.excite.com/investments/news/story/?story=/news/stories/bw/19981222/a1323.htm&symbol=PDG

QUOTE
NEW YORK-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Dec. 22, 1998--Leading analysts examine the Gold industry in the
just-published edition of The Wall Street Transcript, a vital review for investors and companies.

1 ) An in-depth roundtable forum featuring five prominent analysts: Gil Atzmon of U.S. Global Investors,
Victor Flores of HSBC Securities, Felix Freeman of Scotia Capital, Peter Palmedo of Sun Valley Gold
Company, and Borden Putnam of Robert Stevens Investment Management. The panel discusses South
African gold companies, acquisitions and alliances, supply and demand factors, access to capital, and
the recent inability of gold to sustain a level above $300. Atzmon states, "We should not forget that all
commodity prices are very weak right now, oil being one of the leaders." Responding to dire predictions
for worldwide production following the drop below $300, Flores asserts, "What's more interesting is the
reaction of the producers to the lower gold price, which has been to react very quickly and cut costs
very credibly. And that's the reason why production has actually stayed where it is or has in fact only
increased slightly with respect to last year, even though we've had a significant drop in the gold price."

On industry consolidation, Freeman declares, "It's definitely got to continue. It's been surprising and
extremely frustrating that it hasn't happened already. The reasons tend to be very much personality
issues and doubts about the quality of projects, especially among the juniors, a syndrome of 'my kid's
prettier than your kid.'"

Other topics addressed by this distinguished panel: M&A trends, "fallen companies," business
models, management concerns, stock performance, increasing marketplace internationalization, the
outlook for Homestake ( NYSE:HM ) , stock valuations, investment criteria, and the future outlook for the
sector.

The panel offers several investment recommendations, including: Barrick Gold ( NYSE:ABX ) , Iamgold
( Toronto:IMG.TO ) , and Francisco Gold ( Vancouver:FGX.V ) , about which Palmedo states, "It's a classic
late-stage development property which has a meaningful amount of potential production,
250,000-300,000 ounces a year, at production costs that are estimated to be close to $100 per ounce.
It has a current market capitalization of less than U.S. $100 million, with $25 million cash and no
debt."

2 ) An "Off-the-Record" survey of analysts and industry experts, who praise and/or criticize 15 Gold
companies and managements, includes several recommendations and a few admonishments. Praise
for Jack Thompson of Homestake ( NYSE:HM ) for "actually doing an excellent job. In fact, he's probably
shown the most improvement amongst any of those seniors, and still has a lot of plans going forward."

An ovation for Bill Nettles at Stillwater Mining ( AMEX:SWC ) because "He's got the company firing on
all cylinders. They're doing very, very well."

But, another Gold CEO disappoints experts who say "They're in the Hall of Shame for going back to
revolving management."

Other companies mentioned in this special 30-page Gold section include: Agnico-Eagle Mines
( NYSE:AEM ) , Anglo-American ( Nasdaq:AAGIY ) , Anglogold ( NYSE:AU ) , Ashanti ( NYSE:ASL ) , Avgold
( OTC:AVGLY ) , Battle Mountain Gold ( NYSE:BMG ) , Dayton ( AMEX:DAY ) , Durban Deeps
( Nasdaq:DROOY ) , Echo Bay ( AMEX:ECO ) , Eldorado ( Toronto:ELD.TO ) , Euro-Nevada
( Toronto:EN.TO ) , Franco-Nevada ( Toronto:FN.TO ) , Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold ( NYSE:FCX ) ,
Getchell Gold ( AMEX:GGO ) , Gitennes ( Toronto:GIT.TO ) , Glamis Gold ( NYSE:GLG ) , Great Central
Mines ( Nasdaq:GTCMY ) , Greenstone Resources ( Nasdaq:GRERF ) , Harmony ( Nasdaq:HGMCY ) ,
Kinross Gold ( NYSE:KGC ) , Lihir Gold ( Nasdaq:LIHRY ) , Meridian ( NYSE:MDG ) , Minorco
( Nasdaq:MNRCY ) , Newcrest Mining ADR ( OTC:NWCMY ) , Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) , Normandy
Mining ( Toronto:NDY.TO ) , Placer Dome ( NYSE:PDG ) , Prime Resources ( AMEX:PRU ) , Rayrock
( Toronto:RAY.TO ) , Royal Oak Mines ( AMEX:RYO ) , Samax ( Toronto:SMX ) , Sutton ( Nasdaq:STTZF ) ,
TVX ( NYSE:TVX ) , William Resources ( Toronto:WIM.TO ) , and Yamana ( Toronto:YRI.TO ) .

For information on how to obtain a copy of this issue, see http://www.twst.com/info.htm or call ( 212 )
952 - 7433. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewee nor does it make
stock recommendations.
END QUOTE

Deflation is the keyword for Alan Greenspam this next year...He and RR will have to keep the PPT busy every single day to keep the Dippy's happy....Let's see....no one is buying commodities means that no one is buying what the commodity is used for...which means that inventories of existing product is probably growing....which means that company sales are going down...which means that profits are under pressure...which means that CEO salaries will be under pressure...which means that the employees will have to suffer so that the CEOs can get their bonuses and options...which means that layoffs should accelerate...which means that 2/3 of the population will stop buying "goods and services"....which means that the company earnings will slip...soooooo...it must be time to buy stocks...right?

20.000 crossed the floor at 16 1/2,interesting

Another big block 25,500 at 16 7/16,big buyers around when
there is light prechristmas trading.

Squirrel: I shall have to look into this with the elders...although I think each town should be responsible for itself...but must ponder this furtheralthough I am sure that a Island that is Long referendum will pass that allows for the opening of the Baldwin boys mouth on a curb and stepping on the back of his neck which is an age old method of expressing ones displeasure with another here on the Islandyupuh huh

Nick@C: I have also secured lists of vegetarians on the Island that is Long as I figure during the big freeze I can keep a bunch stacked outside the door and eat em as I need emless chemicals in their bodies and most smoke pot so it will keep the chill away as wellneed peltsI will have a bunchplus their tails are great for cleaning bongs

Steve In TO: Yeseveryone thinks these little creatures are oh so cutenaythey are vermincapable of out thinking the brightest of those who walk uprightevery transition has its drawbacksI am careful to watch how I feed them as they will eat until they explodeaside from having to clean the window I do not relish competing with the other survivors for their treasured delicacyand a Raccoon could make a home out of anything you got that right and they refuse to pay rentmake a mess and are noisyso I merely subjugate the big ones as an oven payment

Happy Holidays to one and all....and for my Christian Friends....Merry Christmas!!!

Gold bugs aren't always lucky, but we are ever faithful...May the Gold shine in '99!!!!

May God bless you one and all!!

sold and short 16 1/2

I'm not sure if I follow your comment. If gold falls like a rock do you think that the XAU will fall below your price targets? Or, do you see gold falling to your forecast level but the XAU holding at just below 60. My analysis suggests both gold and the XAU have lower and that the XAU will beat gold to its respective bottom. Princeton Economics forecasts a bottom for gold in February. They were right about the Oct. high and may be correct here as well. It looks to me that the bottom could come anytime as soon as year-end or as late as February.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/355/nation/Strikes_didn_t_finish_job_US_set_out_to_do+.shtml

Quote for the Day:

"How does it become a man to behave toward the American government today? I answer, that he cannot without disgrace be associated with it."

Henry David Thoreau

chop-asaki kitco.......

chop-asaki tomo....you nomo gumblio.

bblwawlms.....yar.

Date: Tue Dec 23 1997 16:47
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( JUNE 330 GOLD CALLS ) ID#372262:
Once again the June Comex 330 gold calls @$200/each or better represent a screaming buy! Only $30 to go by May 8! IMHO These calls will pay off BIG once the collapse of Asia starts tanking the US Dollar and the DOW!

Date: Tue Dec 23 1997 05:13
AYORK ( THE BOTTOM IS IN ) ID#20167:
I believe a short term bottom is in for gold. The main reason is that the cbs are terrified of deflation and will cease their manipulations,
After all they only wanted to create a little disinflation.
Has anyone noticed that many low priced junion mining cos have rebounded nicely from their Nov-Dec lows. some are up from 40-80%

Improve:33% Stay the same:27% Worsen:40%

Good morning to you All, look what I found while munching on my tofu scramble _breakfast

Clipped from the Gold Mining Outlook Today


NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY GOLD AND ITS SHARES: Four good reasons follow.
GOLD AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS: The Japanese government announced Tuesday morning
that they would cease purchase of Japanese long-term government bonds. In essence, they have decided to
allow their long-term interest rates to approach those of most European countries. While still below nominal yields on U.S. long-term bonds, the effect of higher Japanese rates will serve as significant competition for U.S. Treasuries, since the yen gene!
rally appreciates against most currencies over any extended period of time. Also, the Japanese themselves, historically substantial buyers of U.S. Treasuries, will be more inclined on the margin to purchase their own country's bonds. The multi-year recess! ion in Japan combined with the euphoric U.S. stock market has dampened the speed of the yen's appreciation, but the uptrend is still clearly intact. Therefore, yields on U.S. bonds will have to increase to keep pace, thus increasing the costs of corporate borrowing. The net effects are as follows:
1 ) higher long-term U.S. rates;
2 ) lower U.S. corporate profits, since all U.S. corporations will have
to borrow money more expensively; 3 ) since short-term rates are not
affected, there will be a greater spread between short-term and
long-term U.S. rates. Because of the continued concern over worldwide
recession, short-term rates will not be able to rise, thus keeping the
spread wide.
4 ) As a result of lower corporate profits, equity prices will eventually
decline. Over the short term, P/E ratios can expand to compensate for decreasing profits, exactly as has been occurring in recent months, but this game can only be played for so long. Inevitably, lower profits must mean lower stock prices.
5 ) With short-term interest rates being lowered around the world, time
deposits serve as less competition for precious metals, since there is
less interest to be lost by being invested in gold, which pays no
interest.
6 ) With long-term interest rates on the rise, both stocks and bonds will
perform poorly, thus increasing the attractiveness of alternative
investments such as gold mining shares.
7 ) As corporate profits fall, U.S. equities will decline, which will
bring down the U.S. dollar. A falling dollar combined with a
historically wide spread between short- and long-term rates is the ideal
scenario for gold.
8 ) Therefore, the Japanese government decision is very bullish for
gold, both over the short and the long run. A similar increase in
long-term Japanese rates caused a sharp gold rally in late 1989. This
time the rally should be much greater in percentage terms, since gold is
starting from a far lower base. Expect the average gold mining share
price to increase by at least 50% over the next six months.

INDIAN INNOVATION: India is the world's number one gold importing country, with the U.S. a distant second. The state-run Unit Trust of India, that country's largest mutual fund, has tentative plans to implement a gold deposit scheme. The aim is to tap India's vast reserves of gold in private hands by accepting gold as deposit and as collateral to lend !
funds, according to Ravi Vasantraj, vice president at Mecklai Financial and Commercial Services Ltd. Such a scheme will encourage Indian consumers to buy the yellow metal as buyers will be able to effectively earn interest on their gold from the Unit Trust !
of India.
PRIDE GOETH BEFORE A FALL: Managers of U.S. bond funds registered their lowest ever level of cash as a percentage of assets, according to MCM MoneyWatch's Investor Survey, the company reported on Tuesday. In the week ended December 21, cash represented only 2.45% of total bond fund assets, an all-time low. Historically, abnormally low cash levels correlate with major tops in the bond market. With stocks at a record high P/E at the same time that b!
onds are at record low cash levels, it is possible that both will decline in tandem, which would spur mutual fund investors to seek out alternative fund choices such as gold mining shares. ( There are other alternative investments besides gold shares, of cou!
rse, but money market funds and GICs cannot provide the potential for double-digit returns that some investors seek, while most other investments that correlate inversely with stocks and bonds are not nearly as liquid as gold mining shares and, more importa!
ntly, are simply not available for most mutual fund investors. )

ONE LAST REASON: Before each of the major gold rallies since 1973, gold made a false move lower,accompanied by steady commercial accumulation, immediately before the rally began. The XAU, an index of gold mining majors, is now at its lowest point since September 9, 1998, while the traders' commitments continue to improve.

cyclist ~ have you noticed the decidedly anti-canadian bias in the major gold equities this morning?
HM & NEM almost even for today and ABX & PDG in the MINUS 7/16-3/8 area; with spot -$1.80 the boys are making butter, non?

A 6 bagger in less than 1 week. The 1 month on-line auction IPO traded at 33 last week and over 180 today. Makes forex speculation look like...

So now the Indins will be "leasing" gold?
Will this be enought to bail out the shorts?
Will the Indians be the at the bottom of the Gold Lease Pnozi Scheme?

The longer the game runs the harder it crashes...

---------

INDIAN INNOVATION: India is the world's number one gold importing country, with the U.S. a distant second. The state-run Unit Trust of India, that country's largest mutual fund, has tentative plans to implement a gold deposit scheme. The aim is to tap India's vast reserves of gold in private hands by accepting gold as deposit and as collateral to lend !
funds, according to Ravi Vasantraj, vice president at Mecklai Financial and Commercial Services Ltd. Such a scheme will encourage Indian consumers to buy the yellow metal as buyers will be able to effectively earn interest on their gold from the Unit Trust !
of India.

?

A while back, you had stated that "within the next 10 days" the
lows made in gold and silver would probably BE the low for those
metals respectively. Well, obviously the markets are dynamic and
circumstances change daily, but I was wondering if you are still
forecasting this with maybe another 5 to 10 day extension? Today
is day 10 from your original statement. TIA, Fox-man

Viceroy VOY/Tse is up on high volume and good news, Southwestern Gold up, and was holding nicely in the recent sell off, yup, ah ha
( as t1 would say )
l_b not called a gold bug for nothing

NEM wil take a little longer,we have a global community,n'est pas?: )

"S&P Still Positive on Gold Stocks"
http://www.personalwealth.com/prn02
S&P equity analyst Leo Larkin maintains his positive outlook on gold
stocks despite weakness in both the group and the metal itself. Larkin
says positive factors for 1999 include less central bank selling, more
volatile financial market returns, and a renewed role for gold as a
financial hedge. He reiterated 4 STARS ( accumulate ) opinions on Battle
Mountain Gold ( NYSE: BMG - news ) , Homestake Mining ( NYSE: HM - news ) , Barrick Gold
( NYSE: ABX - news ) , Newmont Mining ( NYSE: NEM - news ) , and Placer Dome ( NYSE: PDG - news ) .

You can fool all of the people all of the time.
Those that sacrifice essential liberty for security will get that security.
It is possible to be ignorant and free.
The stock market will go up forever.
The full faith and credit of USG is better than gold.

yep,yep, and I second that one....

Date: Wed Dec 23 1998 10:22

trader_vic ( CRB Index Tumbles ) ID#372228:

Copyright  1998 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Deflation is the keyword for Alan Greenspam this next year...He and RR will have to keep the PPT busy every

single day to keep the Dippy's happy....Let's see....no one is buying commodities means that no one is buying what

the commodity is used for...which means that inventories of existing product is probably growing....which means

that company sales are going down...which means that profits are under pressure...which means that CEO salaries

will be under pressure...which means that the employees will have to suffer so that the CEOs can get their bonuses

and options...which means that layoffs should accelerate...which means that 2/3 of the population will stop buying

"goods and services"....which means that the company earnings will slip...soooooo...it must be time to buy

stocks...right?

SpuddO - you'll have to do better than that if'n you want to let some hot air outta this WEST coast windbag. A loss of $322 in my IRA account will not do it. Now, when I "recommended" selling ALL gold rallies did you do it? Thought not...........you should at least be buying gold here, eh?

Perhaps Realistic would be so kind as to toot my horn from several weeks ago until now when I have NOT wavered in my posts regarding gold going into the crapper. ( as cherokee would say ) My eyes were SCREAMING........... ( my mouth just spilled the beans ) ....................I am in line with APH ( I'll say it again ) when he projects gold into the 270's. I will not stop there though....it could even have a final washout below that. I do think that the 270's are a good number for this time though. Just watch out below when gold really gets the shine knocked out of it.......perhaps after this WhyTwoKay thingy blows over..........$250? $200? I dunno..........

Weather last night broke 22F out here in Central Coast Cal. Pipes broke all over the neighborhood.........I left a faucet dripping last night so I was not affected...............One of my Avocado trees was smacked hard from the cold........it was blooming too........DAMN! My other one seems to be doing OK. All my citrus is hanging on by a thread.......this sucks. It ain't supposed to get this cold here, had to sleep with socks on....................and look at the energy markets.......still sucking..........go figure. Sometimes the markets just plain suck. That is all.

away.......to heat the Avo's

ummedout

The XAU has been dropping while the metals have been relatively flat.
IMO the metals will spike down into there obj. while the XAU declines only slightly, relative to the spike down. From the current levels that would mean a $10 drop in gold but only a 200 pt drop in the XAU. If 58 is taken out then we could see a test of the lows and that would drive gold lower. Time wise I think it will happen by year end especially since we are dealing with thin markets. But could it drag out to Feb.? Sure, this market loves torture.

Almost the end of the year and the jockeying in preparation of tax season is in full swing.

There are hardly any sellers of internet stocks. Not by anyone who bought them much earlier in the year. In a few more days, though, I suspect we'll see the short sales go up quite a bit.

Lot's of gold, oil, and other losing sector positions though. Got to get that tax credit in.

So what do you think happens in January when all the 1998 internet gainers decide to cash in, since now they won't have to pay tax on those gains until Y2K?

With bonds dropping, and the rush to get out of the bubble, the losing sector stuff is going to look mighty attractive. Wouldn't you say?

to all
This is a kind of Christmas message .. just to say
how much Ive enjoyed your company for the past year.
Suffering through a bear market together creates a
certain type of comeraderie between people .. similar
perhaps to that which forms amongst a band of Foreign
Legionaires in an old fort in the Sahara surrounded by
screaming Tauregs howling for their blood as they slowly
run out of water and bullets.. fatalism .. black humour
.. hopefully rescue and reward to come ..
.. ever feel like you were a character in a Sam
Peckinpah movie ??
.. you're a fine bunch of guys .. hope we do better
next year ..

Namaste.

'sok, Eric. You'll live. Everyone makes mistakes - Disney was a good try.

( cough ) As to your recommending shorting gold and claiming brilliant insight ... is like saying Saddam will be kind to Bath Party opponents.

give us a break EB - Greenspin & The Federal Reserve must keep gold down at all costs or this insane Tulip flatulence called the Stock Market bursts open like a +24 carbuncle - this isn't brilliance OR insight. It's called "riding someone's coattails" wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

Y2K will tilt over the apple cart for one simple reason: public mania.

Just as mania propels THIS stock market ever higher ( as if "investing" is even considered today ) - the PERCEPTION of being "left out" in getting food, shelter, cash, power, etc. will heave this mass of dumbed-down credulous moo-cow modern day Americans into the hysteria column.

Who cares if Y2K will cause any REAL problems - PUBLIC IRRATIONALITY will do the job very nicely.

Merry Christmas, you icey-toed EB! Got gold?

Spud, ice scateing in patent leather wing-tips today ; )

New money is created ONLY through borrowing from banks and so far demand has been very strong. The fed can't not inflate without borrowing. Banks have been offering lucrative deals to worthy borrowers. It has been estimated that for every dollar borrowed,eight new dollars are created.
As deflation intensifies, banks will cease lending and will be investing primarily in US government securities for safety. According to the latest federal reserve statement, US commercial banks are owed $955B by a variety of borrowers. If 25% of these loans were defaulted, the banks capital base will be wiped out and the US government will have to step in and bail them. Net contraction in bank credit will begin ONLY when they stop lending. Gold will explode when US banks cease lending as safety will be first priority. When will it happen ? I suspect by Q1-2 of 1999.

I've been think about what to get everyone for Christmas, and I've decided on a good old fashioned key reversal.

I'm going down to the lever room now, and Merry Christmas!

realistic ..
if you check the numbers you will find that the
bottom for the jse-gold index was in december of 1997.
It was somewhere around 650 and is now around 850.
Thats in rands .. In $ the same applies except for
a spike down in August this year .. Harmony could be
had for about 2 bucks and is now 4 plus .. Drooy was
around 1 and a half as I recall.. Those messages you
were quoting were as bad as made out to be.

Wednesday December 23 9:41 AM ET

U.S. says jobless benefits program ready for 2000

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time
next month will not be affected by the year 2000 computer problem, the U.S. government
said on Monday.

Unemployment insurance is the first federal program that could be affected by the
so-called Y2K problem because the end date for which a person is eligible for benefits
falls one year after the starting date.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19981223/tc/jobless_1.html

OHMmmmm

For instance, glance at PAASF

One and a half hours later, and POG kicking up to -$1.30, and the XAU hovering just above 60 and a half, the disparate relationship persists... why is this?
NEM & HM about even and ABX & PDG -5/16 to -3/8


NEM, PDG, ABX, HM, BMG
interesting...elf; these five comprise not only the core equities I trade but together comprise my fab five FF equity index. My highly ideosyncratic trading method is to find them in agreement, in either direction, by 10:00 ( BMG usually representing a swing vote ) and then take a position aquiesing to the directional movement. Historic the odds have supported this practice.

lady_bug... beware the ghost of Christmas sugar plums.

right now the FF index ( sum of movement of the FF as total 1/16th
movement: -7

Speaking on 1998 market calls.... it would seem that we only have a week left for Gold's "All out run to infinity by year end"....

You know, the one ANOTHER spoke of in March..after he spoke about the "Large purchase now sends a new message"... or was that a SALE...by Belgium..which they decided not to go through with...oh well...I give up...ANOTHER was always WAY too deep for small minds like my own. Let's just read his deific words of mystery together.

"Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Copyright  1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
REPLY TO:

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18

OLD GOLD ( Paper Gold ) ID#238295:

What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden earthquake?

Mr. Old Gold,

The US$ price of gold is, now held between several extremes. In Nov. of last year, a understanding was reached that the paper gold market was out of control. The private market was using this medium in a way not intended. Gold was to be taken and held in the $320 to $360 range. This was good for all. ......

Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end....

Christmas or not the best gift you could send is a spike down not up. Those that are holding will continue to hold and those of us that need to buy are waiting for the drop.

We watch this new bond market together...GO JAPAN...Seems they figured out they needed to raise long term interest rates. To late but what the heck. Got to try something. Sell those US bonds. Still going down the tubes...just a question of time...

Went Gold...

Tom

But if it stayed in then my 05:21 yields 26 US Senators from Long Island - bad since most may be Democrats except for besieged enclaves of Republican virtue. Maybe other Republican regions could subdivide to offset the imbalance.
Towns should indeed be responsible for themselves. Most present Fed and State functions could revert to local communities. Long Island's national gov't would be responsible only for a judicial system and defense. Your Navy would fly an ensign with the Islands's green silhouette fringed in GOLD to reflect it's simple & honest monetary system! Not much of a role for your feds - but that's the idea.
The 13 sovereign states on the Island may be 3 from Suffolk, 2 from Nassau, 4 from Kings, and 4 from Queens. Could Nassau County differentiate North/South, East West or in some other way? The "Balkanization" of Long Island would surely be more peaceful than the European experience.
What would be the states' roles? With local communities responsible for education, jails, family assistance, etc. that might leave the state governments only with highways and a court system. Again not much of a role for them - but that too is the idea - less for them to meddle with.

Perhaps new nations founded on a Gold standard would be one of the only salvations for our dear POG.

Just a little Christmas cheer for those looking to raise a little more dry powder for next week.

Looks like Saddam has used his astral travel imaginary
psycodelic testosterone bomb on mother Blairs nanny
cabinet .. has he pressed the button that revealed
them as the bunch of pansies they truely are ??
.. two ministers in one day ?? heavy casualties ..

Wednesday December 23, 12:06 pm Eastern Time

Dallas Gold & Silver acquires Beltline

DALLAS, Dec 23 ( Reuters ) - Dallas Gold & Silver Exchange Inc., a
wholesaler of retail jewelry, said Wednesday it had acquired Beltline
Pawn Shop for an undiclosed sum. Dallas Gold & Silver said it would change Beltline's
name immediately to the International Jewelry Exchange Inc.

Dallas Gold & Silver said it would explore additional acquisitions in prime markets
located near its superstore in the Dallas area. The company said its acquisition of Beltline
Pawn Shop should add to its earnings in 1999 and contribute to the growth of its unique
Internet auction and person-to-person trading community.

More Quotes and News:
Dallas Gold and Silver Exchange ( AMEX:DLS - news )

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/local/state/oregon/story.html?s=v/rs/19981223/or/index_1.html#2

Little gritty bum? Been laughing all week. Your respectful adversary, mole.

I am considering trading my gold maples for platinum ones. I think that the ratio of Pt/Au is low at this point. If the price of Pt rises faster than gold early in 99 then it might be better for me to trade at this point, rather than waiting till next year to trade for Pt and writing a paper loss on gold against other paper gains. Does anyone know if I can do a Au for Pt swap with no tax consequences, or must I do a sale and repurchase? RJ probably knows this. Otherwise, I shall just hold the metal and add Pt to it with the paper proceeds and sell the metals in parallel for best tax advantage.

Gold has tracked downward in the last few days, almost exclusively during New York trading hours, with dealers attributing its weakness to fund lead efforts to PUSH PRICES LOWER FOR A BETTER YEAR END, BOOK EVALUATIONS OF THEIR SHORT POSITIONS. No one is willing to trade against them so the market is moving out of their way and slipping lower. Quoted from a London Gold Dealer!

Spuds - Namast......HH to you and yours...I LOVE YOU MAN!

JD - *G&P* to ya......... ( burp ) ..... ( puffy-puffy ) .....................aaaaaahhhh....

Tol#1 and All - later.

away

2ky

There where plenty of explanations, why POG goes down now - shorts, Swiss, etc. I can offer another one. As far as I know, ECB is going to define the book value of its Gold reserve based on a market price of Gold on Dec 31, 1998. Thats it. Do they expected to book it high and suffer discrepancies later? Dont think so. Other way around is much more favorable and probable.
I do not link current equities rally with POG decline. I have spent a lot of time charting POG against major stock indices and I can say - and I am sorry to tell that - last two years Gold behave much more like commodity then like currency. Even more - 85-90% of the time there is no any significant statistical correlation between DOW, S&P, whatever and POG. We all saw it recently, when all markets in the world where far below todays figures. So, do not expect POG to go up significantly, if DOW will decline.
I may also say, that what we are witnessing with equities now, is a very simple thing: mutual funds are shopping. They have to do it in order to present good looking end-of-year reports to their customers. They can not show too much free cash - money are not working then in the eyes of average "investor".
---
APH: can you please comment your own messages for the last week?
---
Oldman: can you please, comment advice, you gave to T1 to short Monday morning as much S&P as margin allows - it was last weekend

Forget what I just said. Unless you are so inclined as to have to respond. I argue with myself and lose all the time.

So, come January, not only will the internet stock winners be trying to cash out with their winnings, but the gold shorts will also be rushing to unwind their winnings simultaneously.

Sounds like traffic on the trading floor could get pretty vicious.

December ain't over 'till it's over........ ( winkwinknudge ) .
away


with the Prez of the US impeached and the trial in the near future is gold going down?

Now here's my question. I bought $10,000. worth of Gold and Silver back in May or June when Gold was around $295. and Silver was over $5... Anyway, could someone tell me in plain English what to do now. I'd like to buy some more and am wondering if you think it's going to go down much more or not and when. Would appreciate your comments. Also, I'm thinking that some time in the next year to two years that this stuff is going ot come in handy, but I don't have a clear view of how it will ( could ) pan out. Is there a day coming when I'll be able to actually go into a store and whip out a couple ounces of Gold and buy something? You obviously can't do that now.

"[a]in't over 'till its over..."

hmmm. ( neuron traffic ) . sip of Diet Coke. glance at lastest issue of TheOnion on screen. scratch multi-coloured mohawk haircut. momentary X-rated musings of Mrs. Peel circa 1970. longer musings of Agent Sculley. much longer. ( cough ) . where was I? Oh yes ...

"well, well, well ... you ARE a Clinton devote' after all, no?
Nawh lookee here pardner, 'round these paarhts, a man owns up, fesses up to his mis-pre-dictions. Ah reckon ( spit ) ya got 'nuther four tradin' days to save yor sorry Cf-252 tanned hide."

So and so. We shall see, Eric we shall see. ( Spud wringing his hands toward Heaven ) : "GOLDEN CHEESEWHIZ! Where are YOU?!" )

Spud The Magnificent

Aside: For those who think there's no use for silver any more - check out http://www.bealaerospace.com - this puppy's rocket engines use silver to decompose hydrogen peroxide - over $1 million bucks worth in the first stage catalyst bed. For an expendable rocket no less. See you down range in my first stage recovery dingy ; )

( sotto voce ) - uh ... what does it mean when some $100 bills do nothing under UV, and some glow brilliant white-blue?

Looks like we are testing $285.

Which ones?

You are so right, could get really ugly!

covered 16 11/16 and standing aside

Right or wrong, the senate trial is a non event. There is no stomach for pursuing the matter further and it will be disposed of as quickly as possible. ...... In short there is no crisis for gold to react to.

FEET: I would ( am ) divide my GOLD money into four buys and average in. Bullion Gold coins are selling under $300 delivered. Buy at spot $286.50, $282, $277 & $274 or if Gold starts back up buy all remaining at $290. The best coin is the Austrian Phillharmonic coin and is 999.9% pure PLUS it has a face value of 2000 Shillings ( $170.00US ) .

There are various interpretations for the lease rate cause and
effect. Steve Kaplan is of the opinion that when one month lease
rates for gold are 1.72% ( up .07% today ) while one year lease
rates are 1.65%, this indicates an inverse yield and is extremely
bullish. The problem is, the pattern of behavior of POG
relative to one month leases does not support this.

Lets say leases are demand driven, that the more the demand for
borrowed gold, the higher goes the lease rate. I watch the one month
leases particularly. If that rate goes up, then the demand for one
month leased gold has increased. So what can a borrower do with a
pile of gold in just one month? The only thing he can do is sell it.
He must replace the gold in one month, but hopes he can do so by buying
it back at an even lower price. If enough speculators do this, this
wish is usually granted, and has been for 10 years. So I have concluded
that one month leases are indicative of a short attack on gold that day
and the next. This is almost predictable in the Xmas season as trading
is light, so that even a moderate volume of sales will have a big impact.
This scenario is called the gold carry. But it breaks down ( and Steve
Kaplan's kicks in when lease rates rise to a point where the spread
between one month treasuries ( 4.55% and lease rates @ 1.72% ) is reduced to below 2.25%. This spread is called the forward rate. Right now
the forward rate is 4.55-1.72 = 2.83%. If we subtract the 2.25%
forward rate threshold which may represent the costs of the
gold carry, we get 2.83-2.25 = .58% This means the gold carry appears
to have a profit margin just based on interest and lease rate spreads
of .58%. Any combination of a drop in short term treasury rates and
a rise in one month lease rates that eliminates this .58% ( as of today )
would snuff the gold carry, and establish Kaplans bullish scenario.
This is all IMHO. I agree with Steve Kaplan, but not until lease rates
rise to about 2.25% or short term lending rates drop to 4%. If both
of these things happen, we may very well have our gold bull.

This is the last thing Alan Greenspan wants of course. I think we
shall see a great hesitation to drop short term rates, and if he must,
we shall see some tampering with one month lease rates to force them
lower. If the gold carry ends, then the main mechanism to control
POG also ends, and that ignites a bull as we really do have a shortfall
of supply. But a gold bull unwinds the short overhang, and hedge funds
are exposed to a good portion of that, and that means, hedge fund failures, and that means bank failures, and that means even more POG rise and so on. This means an upward price spiral for POG and POS, all at
a time of bank failures. Default default default. Steve Kaplan also
says the Fed has only a marginal impact on the gold market. I wonder.
There seems to be a lot at stake for the Fed to sit dreamily by while
the American Banking system implodes, and all just because speculators
sold a few thousand tons of gold short. Yea right.

I hope Steve Kaplan is right, and I am wrong, because if I'm right
then this situation scares the cr*p out of me. So far the pattern of
POG supports my hypothesis. Gotta go.

Congratulations on your wisdom. My advise is don't do anything, except perhaps pick up some mega-beat-up juniors for possible 10 to 1 return speculations. There is an old tale that tells the story of PM ownership.

" Three wise men were riding camels through the desert one pitch black night. Out of the darkness a voice echoed from the sky; "dismount from your camels and fill your pockets with stones". The wise men obeyed.
The next morning they were both happy and sad. The pebbles they picked up were not stones, but diamonds. They were happy they picked up what they had....sad they didn't pick up more."

So it is with gold and silver!

My explanation also. Hopefully the same will hold true for Y2K.

Are your theories on the gold carry trade and lease rates based on experience, intuition, or theory ??

I'm curious because I must admit to being very frustrated with the behaviour of gold and silver over the last 12-18 months. For the most part the price moves are counter-intuitive to what I would expect.

RJ,

My question for you is 'Why do you think we are in the midst of one final downward spiral followed by recovery in 1999. Is it Y2K, Euro, or other factors ?

I am now about to bestow a gift to all beyond comprehension. I will sell all of my shares in PMs, ergo golds bound to go wayyyyyy up after I do so.

Merry Christmas and a happy prosperous New Year,

Pete

the Saharan sand mole ..
Luv ya mole ..
Wear your legionaire uniform proudly .. and go easy
on the water..

To all ..
Claes goes down in Belgium for corruption .. Blair
loses 2 in Londom for funny loans .. ( they thought
loans between pansies didnt count ) .. all caring
guys .. altruistic .. cant do without em .. all
socialists .. taking care of their fellow man ..
but watching out for number one first..

... no rights what-so-ever, that is...

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

read it and gag at the segmented white diopteran larvae that wriggles and gnaws its way round the carcass of the American Republic.

Spud, 1776 II

Precious. Happy Holidays, good Sir!

got eggnog?

You could sell the gold Maple Leafs and buy platinum Leafs, but there is no way to get around the reportability requirement on the sale of the gold Leafs. Since you are looking to take a loss on the gold, the reporting requirement is no biggy, you want to claim the loss, yes? All platinum coins are non-reportable. I would buy the Eagle rather than the Leaf, though.

OK

...of the year. "They" cant allow a low Market "Return %" on record for the year of 1998. The last two years the Market Returns were over 20%. "They" *need* a Market Return in the "teens" at the very least, to keep investors and consumers investing and consuming with extreme "irrational exuberance".

I aint sweating the current gold situation. Next year is payoff time *Everything* going on in the World Economy says so. This is not a "prediction"; and I have a *very* difficult time trying to understand how Wall Street and "Joe Sixpack" dont see it coming.

got gold? got silver?

As far as I can tell this is how it stands, they have control albeit indirectly and for how long?

What is incredible is your piece reads like a dry assessment of the gold loan market until the final conclusion which is mind-blowing. This also is a conclusion I have arrived at, there is really not many other options how they may unwind several thousand tonnes of gold loans. One option mentioned was to convert these gold/dollar loans into gold/euro loans instantaneously creating a euro bond market to rival the US Treasuries. I don't fully understand the implications of this but it sounds more like an extension of the usurous paper games. My hope is that they lose control of the POG completely in all currencies during this transition and sanity will return to financial markets and the world in entirety.

Comments?

Nobody thought than an Impeachment would happen. The Democrats and the White house do not want a trail. They fein innocence, but fear what might come out in a trial. Just because the Senate numbers do not yet support removal, is no reason to preclude a trial!

If, as the White House would like us to believe, there is nothing but a 'right wing' conspiracy at work here, what better way to make fools of the opposition than to go forward and PROVE ( If you really KNOW ) your innocence? No, there is much more than meets the eye here. MUCH MORE...

I've never doubted that there is very much more to be pursued but it's also apparent that much of Arkansas ( drug and contra ) stuff also includes repub's. Not much stomach for pursuing that very far.

Later material re campaign funding, selling commerce dept junkets, tech transfer to China and etc, has been whitewashed with most records shredded. So that becomes a pissing contest of "he said, she said".

For 6 years they have been trying to pin something, anything, on this anthropoid louse. To no good effect. It's time to recognise that whatever forces are at work here, they are firmly on the side of the present system.

That's the way I've thinking about those gold accounts. Hope the Indians hold back. If and when they supply the shorts may it be at a much higher price, say 3 to 5 times todays price.
It's sure to give Marty Armstrong some ammo for his dwindling supply of reasons to keep gold price down.

My number of 60 on the XAU held this morning, actual low ...60.20
We've got a decent rally off of 60 in the last few hours, I'm going to be optimistic and say maybe we have seen the worst of the storm.
CoBra

the gold 'market' apart from the very short term trends indicated
by one month lease rates. I am about 90% accurate in predicting
the day to day direction of swings, particularly in the down
direction. Apart from that, the 'market' is totally perverse.
Perversity is generally caused by politics. So the gold 'market'
is one in name only. Gold is political.

I do not know how they will unwind this mess. I don't think
AG does either. He has said as much!!!!! I do know this:
every time I take a position based on logic, and charts, I have
been wrong within a week. I have got to the point where I warn
this group when ever I buy more gold or equities. I bought two
weeks ago, with stable lease rates at 292. Now look at it.
You can't call it. We are all guessing. But I am not guessing
about the state of the world financial markets, and there is
only one protection for what I see coming down the road. Gold,
not cash. IMHO.

Rhody

S&P related - just follow up - expected this - happened this

I don't see any right wing conspiracy - but I do see a massive, partisan, one-sided Goebbelian Big Lie Machine running full-tilt from our ( cough ) Free ( cough ) Independant ( cough ) Investigative ( cough ) Press.

Since the Press are over-whelmingling left-wing/liberal - does that make what they are doing a Massive Left Wing Conspiracy?

Matt Drudge may take it as the highest compliment that his tiny voice out on the Internet strikes raw, naked terror into the hearts of the on-the-take Press.

We had all better realize that when the Clinton/Rubin/Greespan triumvirate cracks -- all HELL will be breaking loose. They are desperately trying to paradigm shift the entire planet's value system, i.e. gold is worthless. truth is variable. Christians are right-wing white supremists. Again, see Hitler's master of propaganda Joseph Goebbels: Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes truth in the mind of the listener.

Spud's Corollary: What TV puts in your face every day, you accept as normality.

No Ponzi scheme has ever lasted long; it is mathematically impossible for it to - and THAT is what will destroy their elaborate deception - the 'magic' of compound interest, fractional reserve and other slight of hands that keep increasing fiat funds in an exponential manner.

Dow 10,000? You bet. Dow 100,000? Why not? The fiat dollars being spumed out hide in the Dow? It's perfect - it goes in, it never comes out.

Thus the Dow *HAS* to keep rising. But those dollars invested must NEVER, EVER be realized, i.e. turned into cash and spent on stuff.

As long as Mr. & Mrs. Baby Boomer DON'T convert any stock into cash,
the deception can continue. It's OK to BORROW against that virtual stock wealth - and re-invest it of course, but NEVER, EVER SPEND it on tangible things.

Can you spell INSTANT, EARTH-SHATTERING INFLATION?

Repeat after me: There is no soft-landing. There is no soft-landing.

Here's what will happen:

1 ) Your stock market IRA, 401K, Keogs, etc. will be NATIONALIZED by the Federal Government using the excuse it is needed to protect Social Security ... for the children.

2 ) You will be means tested and found "to have more than you need already, you fat miserable bastard boomer."

3 ) Your happy new future will have arrived.

Spud, 1776 II

phenomenon only occurs under one of two conditions. Either I'm too close to high voltage lines, or GOLD IS SETTING UP FOR A HUGE
RALLY!!
p.s. I've been home all day.

GO GOLD!!!!!

One of my crients e-mailed me this...obviously meant for Tort...not me. : )


Choosing the Right Lawyer...

A farmer in a rural town in Arkansas got charged with bestiality and, not knowing much about the law, consulted his uncle who was much more knowledgeable with the lawyers in town regarding who to hire.

"Well there's really two trial lawyers in town that you have to pick from," says the uncle. "One picks a wonderful jury but is terrible in trial" he goes on.

"And what about the other lawyer?" asked the farmer.

"The other is terrible at picking juries but is a great trial attorney -- world class!"

The farmer then consults with both attorneys at great length.

On the day of trial, the uncle, wondering which attorney his nephew chose, decides to attend the proceedings...

The government presented their first witness, Mrs. Brown, the farmer's neighbor.

"That man right there had sex with his poor little goat," says Mrs. Brown. "He was just a-going to town on that poor animal. Such bleating you never did hear!"

The trial lawyer just sat quietly by as his client, the farmer, sunk lower in his chair.

The neighbor woman continued: "And then, when he was all done with his foul deed, that goat of his turned around and licked him clean!"

As she got off the stand, one juror said to the juror sitting next to him: "A good goat'll do that, you know."

Went gold...Tom

Just went back into fid sel am gold

Just went back into fid sel am gold

If you're still lurking about, I would appreciate your thoughts on holding gold versus cash ( cash in hand ) . I know we have beaten the paper horse unmercifully in the past but given the deflation now unfolding, it would seem to me that there is a place for holding some assets in cash in hand. Hmmmmmm???

process. It goes like this: A speculator borrows gold for
a one month to 10 year term ( yes there are multi-year leases
available to gold mines to finance new production cheaply ) .
The gold is sold, and the $ proceeds used to buy a T-bill with
the same term as the gold lease. This T-bill is placed in the
CB vault as collateral for return of the gold, plus gold interest.
Yes that is correct. That one month 1.72% lease rate means that
all the gold must be returned in one month plus 1.72/12 in gold
interest. When the borrower returns the gold, he/she gets the
T-bill which is of course cashed out. The profit on this
'gold carry' is the difference between sell and buy price on the
gold plus the return on the one month treasury.

I have plotted the POG against forward rates back to 1988 when
this process was first introduced. The graphs indicate that
when the forward rate ( short term interest rates - lease rate )
for one month leases is between 2.2 and 2.4%, gold spikes.
I think this is because the gold carry is not without costs in
terms of commissions and transfers and that these costs consume
the 2.2% of the forward rate "profit margin" for the gold carry.
So right now, one month T-bills yield 4.55%
One month lease rates for this am are 1.72%
So the forward rate is:................2.83 less the 2.2% to 2.4%
gold carry costs and we get .63 to .43%. Lets split the
difference and say .5% So if lease rates rise just .5% more or
if short term interest rates drop by only .5%, then it looks
like the gold carry should be uneconomic.

Of course the funds could be so exposed to the short overhang
that they might be willing to carry on even at a loss in the gold
carry. Minor losses to stave off default might be an option for
some. Others will just choose to cover. This will cause a gold
spike, but not I suspect in POG. I think you will see the first
affects in lease rates. I think they will try to cover by
borrowing gold from other institutions. This would be a little
like trying to pay off one credit card with another. There would
be a spike in lease rates. LTCM was forgiven its 300 ton gold
loan by the Italian CB. The CBs might forgive the loans to save
the world financial system ( and lose 25% of their gold reserves ) .
I don't know what will happen. I do know that the size of the
gold lease short overhang is too big to cover. And the same goes
for silver which is in even greater undersupply.

The CBs might induce a depression, gold goes to $200, and the
funds are allowed to cover at a paper profit over the next
five years. Isn't all this guess work fun??????

Company suggesting that drill results might below due to gold lost in the fines by washing of the core during drilling. http://www.viceroyresource.com/news-releases/1998/122298.htm>http://www.viceroyresource.com/news-releases/1998/122298.htm
Or just go to http://www.viceroyresource.com and read news releases.

Thankyou for telling me that again. I remembered our conversation of several weeks ago on that point right after I posted ( therby placing my foot directly into my mouth. ) Resolved, I will not take the loss on the gold against my other paper gains this year. In all likelyhood, I will keep the gold and use the proceeds from the paper sales for Pt next year in the first week of January. Why do you prefer Eagles to Maples? Which do you feel is a more undervalued metal Au or Pt ( subject to the one to three year time frame ) ? Also, I can't seem to get any response from the group on the recent spike for rhodium?

Why is gold going down? What was its behavior before this change? What changed?

Prior to this recent decline gold was pushing up toward 296/7.

It was repeatedly dumped on. Brought down to 293/4 range.

"All of a sudden" gold slips lower and lower.

Why???

Europe is off line due to Euro introduction.

All significant selling has been through New York and its global operations.

Ergo, Europe and those who operate through its facilities have been the upward dynamic whereas New York has been the downward dynamic.

A gentleman's game of tennis ( knowledgable that they both carry 44 Mags ) has been waged. Europe had been more interested in a rising gold price. New York was trying to stop that from happening. Now that the E-landers have a time out, the NewWorlders have been knocking the price down in order to book short term gains.

~~~~~

Question:

So when the E-lander's return with their new currency intact and burning both rockets at a 9er, do you think they will be carrying their rackets or their side arms in their hands?

Answer:

OIL MONEY

"We expect that the Euro will appreciate against the US$ throughout 1999."

NOTE:

Japanese bond rate actions forewarn our New York boyz, but they may be a bit to overweaned in their pride to see it coming.

where you live. I'm a Canadian, so I buy gold for three reasons:

1. The Canadian dollar may tank relative to the USD. In this
case, the value of the gold in CAN$ rises. I have safeguarded
the purchasing power of my paper money.

2. The POG in USD may rise. Arbitrage is easy to understand.

3. Gold is invisible, especially to the Ministry of Finance.
If gold rises either through 1. or 2., I have no intention
of paying capital gains tax. Particularly as in the case of
1. the apparent capital gain would be an illusion.

If we deflate, I expect the value of the CAN$ to fall faster
relative to the US$ than gold falls in US$. That is to say,
gold may go to $200 US a drop of about 30% while I expect the
Canadian dollar to fall to .25 US from its current .64. That's
a drop of over 60%in purchasing power. Yet while all this is
happening, the prices of goods in Canadian dollars will also
be falling. If you convert to gold, you may actually increase
your purchasing power in a deflated economy.

If you live in the US, then the story is potentially less
critical, unless the US dollar is supplanted by the EURO and
loses its world reserve currency status. Then you best have
gold to protect yourself against the massive inflation caused
by the repatriation of all those dollars that the US has been
spending over the last 50 years to live off the avails of
other peoples labour. There has to be some restitution for
a country with 5% of the world's population consuming 20% of
the world's output and just paying with paper dollars.
I suspect an American should also own gold, because greenbacks
could also lose buying power should the NWO implode.

Doesn't it seem that 2.2 to 2.4% per month is an implausibly high figure just for commission and transfer costs? Any other ideas concerning what might go into it?

Winner of the most valuable contribution to my understanding award.

Ever get the feeling the deck is stacked against us. Will be curious is the first of the year brings much change to the state of gold's value.
I'm not willing to bet much it will. Prefering to wait your signal and stay with the earnings growth story of STillwater.

Winner of the most valuable contribution to my understanding award.

Ever get the feeling the deck is stacked against us. Will be curious is the first of the year brings much change to the state of gold's value.
I'm not willing to bet much it will. Prefering to wait your signal and stay with the earnings growth story of STillwater.

Winner of the most valuable contribution to my understanding award.

Ever get the feeling the deck is stacked against us. Will be curious is the first of the year brings much change to the state of gold's value.
I'm not willing to bet much it will. Prefering to wait your signal and stay with the earnings growth story of STillwater.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne0t.htm

Today was, again, no fun for the BEAR TRAP. But on the "lighter" side I can pass on a tip for you y2k whackos. Christmas candles are on sale, half price now and maybe cheaper than that in a couple days. I just bought a couple dozen to supplement the kerosine lamps. Bulk lamp oil is $2/gal compared to $4 in 5/gal cans and $6/gal in pretty little jugs at the Wal-Mart store. If we don't need it for lamps it can be used to cut winter diesel in tractors and pick ups. Even gold won't help you if the store doesn't have it! Expect to use 1/2 to 1 quart a day, you won't want to run those generators all the time.

Cowgirl

If this weren't so painful, it'd be ludicrous. At least now I know what a mania looks like. ( I was only 13 years old in 1968, for the last mania. ) The S&P/Gold ratio hit a new all-time ( over 198 years ) high today: 4.288.

We are now 26.0% over year-end 1997 ( 3.402 ) ;
62.6% over the average for all of 1997 ( 2.637 ) ;
148.0% over the average for all of 1996 ( 1.729 ) ;
53.0% over 1968's peak day ( 2.802 ) ;
177.2% over 1929 peak day ( 1.547 ) ;
and an believable 3,148.6% over the 1980 low of 0.132.

Amazing.

Fergie

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

Tim Congdon argues that America's international payments situation is totally unsustainable. Old news but a good read all the same. http://www.fiendbear.com

Thanks for the comments. I had not considered the issue from a Canadian point of view. CD 0.25? Not a pleasant thought. BTW, I am holding mostly in gold, with a substantial amount in FRNs as well. ..... Maybe it's time to move the ratio a bit more.

Conspiracies? You must be nuts! ( Remember, this phrase can only be used by the 'left' on the 'right', because only the 'right wingers' believe in such nonsense OR actually conspire! The Left never do such Evil and Dasterdly things :- ) ) ,,, ) .

My response is and shall be the same. We have impeached, so let us now try the impeached and see what apples may fall off of the cart! We have begun the Constitutional process of impeachment! Finish it as prescribed in the Constitution. Trial! Failure to try is cowardly behavior. It would also frustrate the public and lead many to conclude that the left was correct in their rhetoric on this being a 'sex' matter or 'pah-tisin' politics.

If Clinton is removed or resigns, gold may move ( !? ) . On the other hand, if Clinton prevails in the Senate trial, be sure to be long the S&P!

Above all else, if you believe in Truth and Honesty, practice your 'Duck and Cover', routine... :- )

Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.12 ( this is a new high ) The 233 day moving average is 29.39.

XAU/Spot Ratio = .221. The 233 day moving average is .248

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981223/ny_s_p_fea_1.html


A little holiday cheer! ( Please excuse if this has already
been posted earlier. )

http://www.noradsanta.org/english/

cheers, peace, good will, ohmmm!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981223/7a.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981222/p.html

The following are popular Holiday songs or their famous first lines.
With the help of Noah Webster, I have paraphrased them. Can you figure
them out? One for each day of December...

1. Sauntering within a marvelous frozen terra.
2. Adams Family's cousin arrived in the middle of a fair skied night.
3. Oh miniscule hamlet north of the Red Sea.
4. Emerald threaded upper limb cover.
5. During the time that custodians of horned rumminant mammals observed
such after dark.
6. I espied my matronly procreator applying oral cavity contact with a
vermillion accoutered gentleman.
7. At some distant point enclosed by a trough.
8. Have a spiny margined, green flat structured, mirthful 12 days up to
Epiphany.
9. Make haste to proclaim such from elongated ridges of substantial
elevation.
10. Deciduous seeds desiccating over an uncontained conflagration.
11. Embellish all entranceways with evergreen wreaths.
12. Jingle jangle mirthfully upstairs.
13. It's starting to appear to an immense degree Noel.
14. Hither we arrive minstreling.
15. Through auditory stimulation we encountered messengers from above
the firmament.
16. Our triad of royalty from the east exist.
17. Will have an azure years end less the 21st letter of the alphabet.
18. Propitious masculine Messiah believers revel.
19. Benignant boss Vaclav.
20. I descried sizeable aquatic navigation in triplicate.
21. Do you perceive through audition what I perceive through audition?
22. Apportion yourself a festive year end in miniature.
23. Impossible to improve locus of origin for planetary rotations of veneration.
24. Hollow metal Nol instruments are producing a percussive sound.
25. Supreme Deity repose gaiety prone noblemen.
26. Proceed, proceed "Omniscient originator who accompanies."
27. Soley desired for Yuletide are a pair of enamal covered masticating protrusions.
28. The obscurity preceding Yuletide.
29. Spiny edged foliage and ascending vine.
30. O sacrosanct tenebrous period.
31. I ponder curiously as I meander aimlessly.

You've been calling for the AU bull to not start until 99. Well, it looks like you're half right. It didn't start in '98. Now what makes you so sure it WILL start in '99?

gwyz 14:42. Actually, the Dow's annual return has been over 20% for the past THREE years - 1995 - 96 - 97. A fourth straight 20% year would require a year end Dow of 9490 or higher.

This century, there had never been more than two consecutive years of 20% or more annual rises on the Dow - until 1995-97. Now, we're only 288 points short of a fourth straight - with five trading days to go.

it helps to think of William F. Buckley Jr. singing the tunes

"Rudolph, the ahh red-nosed reindeer, that is to imply red as
in color not ahhh political affiliation, vis a vis had a very
shiny nose.....

"IT IS POSSIBLE that stock prices can continue to increase while corporate profits continue to decline, as long as P/E ratios expand sufficiently to compensate ( currently 32.25 on the S&P 500 ) . However, one should not wager one's hard-earned money on the continuation of the current unusual financial market behavior. The race is not always to the swift, but that's the way to bet. THE VIX IS BELOW 20, ITS LOWEST READING SINCE JULY 21, 1998. BUY INDEX PUTS! 1999 is going to be a VERY bad year for the stock market, and a VERY good year for gold."

COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 23

-- TOTALS
Gold 811,371 - 100 troy ounces
Silver 76,201,849 - 213,185 troy ounces
Copper 92,771 + 350 short tons

LOL!

I see silver stockpiles on the COMEX are gradually falling after weeks slow gains or static action.

TOTAL REGISTERED
36,962,089 0 597,925 -597,925 0 36,364,164
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
39,452,945 450,928 66,188 384,740 0 39,837,685
COMBINED TOTAL
76,415,034 450,928 664,113 -213,185 0 76,201,849
********************************************************************
Current Registered Total= 36,364,164

Current Eligible Total= 39,837,685

Combined Total= 76,201,849

TOTAL REGISTERED
718,440 0 0 0 5,721 724,161
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
93,031 0 100 -100 -5,721 87,210
COMBINED TOTAL
811,471 0 100 -100 0 811,371
*******************************************************************
Total Registered= 724,161
Total Eligible= 87,210
Combined Total= 811,371
********************************************************************
As you can see, another adjustment was made. There was 5,721 oz's
transferred from Eligible Stock to Registered Stock...
Gotta go, See ya!
Fox-man

he says 1999 is going to be a VERY bad year for the stock market, and a VERY good year for gold"
could not agree with him more, but then again I said the same this time
last year!

Q: What's the quickest way to make $10,000??

A: Invest $20,000 in gold.

Just thought I would pop my head in here and provide the following quote related to internet stock UBid's recent surge....

------------------------------------------
From Reuters...

"The Ubid rise seems to be because of Onsale and their deal with Yahoo," Vanderbilt said. "For lack of better information, investors tend to reward like-stocks."

The craze to invest in companies with an Internet-related business has in recent months resulted in a shift in the way stocks are bought and sold. Individual investors are increasingly making their own judgments about stocks, without the recommendation of financial analysts or other professionals.

--------------------------------

Farfel says....

So, at least, there is one benefit arising from the internet mania....soon, there will NO longer be any need for full service stock brokers or financial analysts or financial planners. For some time now, I have said that the financial industry employs FAR too many people and it is crying to be DOWNSIZED greatly. I am certain that at least several million financial advisors could have their jobs eliminated...and today's small investor would never know the difference. The small investor no longer cares about the fundamentals such as earnings, revenues, etc. nor any real information pertaining to stocks. Ergo, they do NOT need purveyors of financial data nor financial advisors of any kind.

These financial advisors can only serve to throw a damper on the maniacal party now unfolding on the Street.

Get Rid of them all!

The elimination of all these financial advisors/analysts will allow the market to continue its evolution into a market solely based on wishes, hopes, and dreams.

Ultimately, all stocks ( except precious metals stocks, of course ) will have a good shot at reaching a price of infinity...and everybody will be filthy rich...and nobody will ever have to work again.

Makes sense, right?

Thanks.

F*

The method? Out of body, near death experiance and direct communication with heaven. No kidding!

Today, as my wife was out shopping I decided to make a snack. In the refrigerator next to the dish with the day old spaghetti were two little beautiful orange/peach/pink holiday colored peppers, leftover from some pepper sauce she had made for Christmas. I don't know where she lucked out finding them, but these wonderful peppers, called habeneros, are really hard to find around here except already made into sauce. I guess people just don't appreciate their value, or maybe all the investment gurus buy them up like Furbys as soon as they hit the shelves?

As she wasn't there to say no, I figured forgiveness was easier to ask than permission. So I poured a stiff drink of tequilla + Sprite, set a bowl of spaghetti in the microwave and cut one of the little peppers in half, eating the first half then a few minutes later the second half!

Well the next thing I remember was Saint Peter who sat me down, told me ( as sort of a consolation to the fact that I wasn't ready to cross the pearly gates yet ) the price of gold on January 15th. He ( to cool me off ) gave me a swig of what appeared to be Chateau de Pape wine, some divinity candy and ambrosia from the heavenly buffet and sent me back down the tunnel of light to this planet. About an half hour later I woke up enough to be able to gently start sipping the tequilla!

Damn, that sucker was hot!

A couple of hours later my wife came in and, seeing the knife by the sink, rinsed it off. For some reason unknown to me she rubbed her lip with her finger, carrying what she claimed was invisible essence of fire ( a likely story ) and among the screams and threats against my life, told me what Pete said would be the price of silver!

Too bad you uninitiated are not ready for the sublime knowledge. Happy Holidays, and if you are tempted to eat the sweet little peppers, don't give in to the urge.

http://www.sammcgees.com/chili/pid_blair-sc.html

Yes, I think I will keep that little perdiction of Mr. Kaplan's quoted below till the end of next year and waive it around at that time.

I'm affraid I'm coming to the mind that the FED and the CB ( THE CABAL ) can successfully maintain the lid on gold for the foreseeable future. It being in their best interests to do so I think they will. We'll see if Rhody's lease rate theroy eventually kicks in and gold cuts loose and if the Coming of the Euro has any effect on the price of gold which I doubt it will as nothing else has.

Frankly, i would rather see gold maintained under $300 if it means the world is going to go on as it is, if not improve economically, in the next year. I think gold over $300 now implies a loss of control by the CABAL that will have ramifications far greater than my gold hedge can offset.

I shall keep an eye out in any event but I see a continued steady price environment for commodities in the first half of '99, higher equities through the first quarter, building concerns about Y2K beginning in June, weakness in the stock market towards the end of the year.

The narrowness of the stock market rally, the concentration in internet stocks, the falling VIX and now the falling bond prices tempers my enthusisam but I'll still perdict:

DOW 10,000 before Gold $315.......

I just read @rhody's excellent posts today.

Any Kitcoite know the "news" source of the Italian CB forgiving LTCM's 300 ton gold loan???

This is the first time I've heard the gold came from Italy.

I agree with your post. It is better for all if gold stays where it is and the world rebounds. Much of my PM investment is in silver which will gain from a worldwide recovery.

BELIEVE ME IT WILL HAPPEN VERY GENTLY, INTERNET TRADER WILL NOT PARTICIPATE. THANK YOU

We may have really seen the turn today , a low in the AU and a turnabout in The AU stocks. We had a key reversal in the gold stock index, The XAU. I had been looking for the key 60 number to hold and it did, getting as low as 60.20 before powering up out of a deep hole. This action has bullish implications. Immediate bullish implications, This train could leave the station in a hurry. A nice head and shoulder bottom has now formed on the charts. To be valid, the 60 area must hold. We could see a 35% rally in the XAU back to the 85 area in the near future. A lot on KitCo have said they were ready to through in the towel, It is always darkest just before the dawn. I may be totally full of BS but I have watched the AU 35 years and the stocks almost as long. If I am wrong I will come back and eat humble pie but I can see the dawn and I'm on the train.

CoBra

the light above the head, like in a cartoon.

What if there is no conspiracy, or the action in the past year
is nothing more than mormal behavior of PMs after a long down
move that has lasted since the 1980's, and now smart money has
been accumulating the stuff, while the market frenzy has lasted
and a top is forming, which will eventually head down, while
the PMs go up? Is this dreaming, or seeing reality, on a longer
term basis.

If one looks at 30 year charts, despite the move down, the trend,
believe it or not, is "UP". So let's keep the faith, and go and
enjoy the spirit of the moment. Happy Holidays to one and all.

Hmmm. Maybe I can find out the future price of platinum?

I don't believe the CB's will keep forcing the POG lower and lower. Or even to keep the POG in a stable price range. Otherwise, why hold Gold at all???????

I'm convinced there will come a time when the CB's will manipulate upwards just as they have done so downwards. The only other way is for the CB's to lose control and the POG goes up anyway.

If this isn't true, then I see no reason to hold gold at all.

of bread...the only defense...the only defense...tequila and hot peppers
are a lot like the metals...if you can't take the heat...get outta the kitchen...if you can take the heat...learn to bake bread...

this year has been mormal...a fantastic Freudian pun...Brabo...

Am considering buying 25K shares in the near future. TIA.

http://www.investorlinks.com/metals/index.html

I agree with the darkest before the dawn thingie, but it's been dark so long I think I'll wait to see a little light before stirring.

cowgirle..

if-n-when y2k whips bootie....wilst you dine
upon cowpie or crowpie?

!;

thepreacher...--priest--

do you scream in church?
turn the caps off......you scream here..

!;...cmm

Actually there is something which works as well as bread with ordinary peppers, that is buttermilk. ( but not the habenero ) After once tasting the habenero, no chilitos nor jalepenos will ever be a challenge. You can't describe the taste, first sweet and aromatic like a good bell pepper or maybe paprika, then hot like a red chilito, then smoky and like a sweetish vinegar, then really hot, then more so, then you lose track of space and time.

After settling my stomach and pondering the revelations I may buy more silver if it goes to less than $4.60, but will hold off on the gold unless it settles and calms in the netherlands below $380. Burp.

( Never listen to Gagnrad. Even though freshly back from the gates of Heaven he is not an investment nor a gastronomic advisor. Children don't try this at home. You are not as ready to die as you think. )

( 8-^] )

Your previous post about throwing in the towel on PMs evinced a nasty reply from me. For my intemperate remarks, I do apologise.
I think that you are right about the loss of jobs in the "investment" field though. If the market tanks, many of the go-go types will lose any credibility that they have gained during the growth of the bubble.
Free simple advice from Donald's ratio postings will give less sophisticated mopes like me a decent chance to come out ahead on PM stocks ( at least the majors ) .
jims 10000/315 mantra might be on track though. The machinations of the socialists in the EU might drive a heap of capital to the US, rather than the Europeans losing it to the taxman.
SpudMaster was really in good form on taxes and liberty today.
I'll second John Disney's post on the great people on this forum, and I hope that we get some better PM action in the new year.

before that habanero goes too far down through your gut system.
My sister gave me some. You could feel the progress all the way to, and including, egress.
Got a loaf of bread and a buttermilk enema?

Can't say I know what's pc anymore and I don't cotton to startin' one of those famous Kitco food fights, so Happy Holidays and Merry Xmas and Many Returns to all!

Merry Christmas you all seem like a lively bunch.I am long a y2k stock
called Forecross {frxx}.Terrible financials nerd type mgt.but wiz bang
tech.Can do over 60,000,000 line of code per 24 peroid.Looks like after today's news release they are going the Forecross.com rte.Any way have a
look www.forecross.com.

While not considering myself an expert on peppers, I am truly appreciative of them. I've been drawn to any information on their history, uses, etc.

One article I read in a medical publication described an experiment they performed. I believe they were testing a drug to block endorphin action. What I remember as interesting was, the test involved letting someone consume a pepper, and allow its effects to die off naturally. They then injected their drug to block endorphin effect. WOW all the subjects experienced the burning of the peppers once again!

Their conclusion was that people like the 'hot' taste because it creates endorphins and gives them a 'high' much that runners experience.

I don't know but sure do love 'em.

The Root River Rats salute you.

All: I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the behavior of gold in 1999. We will have to be nimble to avoid the big deflationary pitfalls, but between the pitfalls, gold is likely to go up:

1 ) End of 1998 tax loss selling

2 ) Jitters about y2k -- flight to safety ( precious or real paper money )

3 ) EURO launch -- competition for the US dollar, even if the dollar needs to stay fairly strong.

4 ) Clinton trial -- yes! A Clinton trial is not out of the question. Tom Delay has stated today that anyone who reads the evidence as presented by Kenneth Starr will want to try the president. Anyone wonder why the House was so suddenly galvanized to act in such a patriotic way, and why the Democratic defense seemed so hollow? Well the answer is that there is real dirt behind the scenes. No -- I do not expect the Senate will get the votes to boot out the president -- but the fight put up by the president is likely to cause great dissention and turmoil. He will lose much support as more and more of the public start to realize what is up. WJC still does not 'get it' as Dick Morris would say.

5 ) Drop in US dollar due to Japanese ( and ? ) $ selling. I thought not a few days ago due to the desire to keep the EURO launch on track, tradewise. But that was before Japan changed their financial tack. And Japan does not answer to the EURO.

6 ) Trade wars. That banana row between the US and Europe might expand some more. Inflationary for the US, deflationary for the importers.

7 ) Bear market -- I think that JP is right that the US dollar will drop if the US markets do falter -- because we have so much foreign investment. This may mean that gold stocks might actually go up during the deflationary process. But we must be very careful here, IMHO. We could get caught in the suction -- so we should keep much of our powder dry. We will be much safer ( goldstockwise ) if the equity markets just stagnate.

No -- I do not expect a stellar rise in gold in 1999, as the EURO launch will be carefully done. But gold will rise nonetheless. The y2k fireworks might be very colorful -- especially in Europe.

For now, I wish I had bought more call options in Hewlett Packard and Potash! The January effect has begun already -- will probably continue until more WJC dirt comes out.

Just think -- if there is a trail of 100 female 'friends' going back to Arkansas days -- only a few more need to come forward. He will have a hard time in silencing them all now that much of his credibility is gone. And some of them will have some 'real dirt'. Paraphrasing Lincoln: 'You can suppress all of the women from speaking out some of the time, you can suppress some of the women all the time, but you can't suppress all the women all the time'. The unraveling has begun, and it will accelerate.

Will amply supply any hothead for 365 days, and you can throw away
half of 'em.
Anyone else here notice that while POG is headin' south again, the
mining stocks aren't following as much as last time?

The time is alomst here, the Chrismas of '98. The crash at Dead Man's Curve lies smoldering at the bottom of the canyon. Cycles within cycles and phases come and gone. Impeachment, CRB crash, the land of the setting sun, the Russian bear, history turns it's wheels at an ever faster pace.

The Phoenix is near.

http://www.midam.com/ecb/md3dxkg9.htm

MiloTrader: Have you noticed how really hot spices really clear the sinuses? Nice sideffect of eating certain Chinese foods. I learned something else from my Chinese friends years ago. Ever used Tiger Balm? You are supposed to put that on your forehead if you have a headache. Well - it does work! The burning from the Tiger Balm makes you forget your headache! No -- I don't know what is in Tiger Balm besides camphor - could be some really hot spices.

Ever try those little shrunken red peppers in Chinese foods -- the ones you are not supposed to eat? I challenge you to eat more than one of these at a sitting.

By the way, there is another ( very inexpensive ) Chinese medicine that is very effective in eliminating colds -- not just preventing them. Unlike most American medicines, it does much more than alleviate the symptoms. I have taken it, and the cold disappears within a day or so. Sideffects seem to be minimal. Don't have any idea how it works -- and it probably is not effective all the time. But, as far as I know our western medicine pharmacopia is limited a few antiviral agents used against herpes -- Acyclovir and Gancyclovir,and the new HIV antiviral agents. such as AZT, Ribavarin and the other two whose names I have forgotten. Lots of undesireable sideffects. Sure would be nice if someone had the time to look at these age-old chinese medicines and extracted the active ingredients. Some of them really do work.

Just the pharmacologic effects of spices alone would be very interesting.

lower than anything I've read so far. I don't think that there is any chance of our $ going below .50. If it gets into the mid 50s there will be so much panic & fear that the pro U.S. forces will succeed in having it tied to the USD. I feel that we may end up scrapping our $ at .50 & converting to the USD.
As a matter of fact, I'm quite sure that our PM is actually doing everything in his power to ensure that the above happens.

& know them to be a very proud people, also anti U.S. & against foreign ownership of their limited resources. TVX will have a very difficult time operating their mine there, even if they succeed in getting it up & running.
TVX has already had a major setback with their other European property ( Checkoslovakia ) ? beause of environmental concerns.
Just my opinion.

I'll be away visiting relatives over xmas. Thence to Penang ( don't suppose anyone else here has a liking of good Chinese hawker food ) where my parents have promised me ludicrous amounts of "so good and so cheap" food. will be back sunday.

watch those levers carefully, gollum! ;- )

best holiday wishes to all goldbugs on this column. :- )

There is a safe remedy for rhinovirus death. Many years ago I read an article in Science Newsletter about an anecdotal remedy for colds that was noted in the medical publications by a childrens' oncologist.
He noted that some of the children that were given zinc gluconate tablets to combat some of the side effects of cancer treatment were noticably free of colds ( which they monitor, as the poor urchins have enough to bear as it is ) . The children that hated the taste of the tablet sort of pushed them back in their cheek to avoid swallowing the vile substance.
Anyway, the doctor noted that it seemed that the Zn gluconate, when dissolved in the mouth, gave a protection against colds. He suggested that it be looked into.
I bought some of the stuff soon after reading the article as I felt the onset of a cold that had been particularly debilitating to my co-workers.
After enduring the symptoms of the cold for about twelve hours that they were afflicted with, the thing disappeared.
For the next several years, upon feeling cold symptoms I dosed myself with the stuff. You don't need to swallow it, Just keep it bathing your throat, and mouth. I didn't have a cold for four years, until I got married to a teacher of preschool kids. etc. blah.. anyway.
I have gone back to it now, and have been cold free for a year.
I also eat hot peppers, and buy goldstocks.

If you buy right, this has been a good short term trading stock. Their last runup from US 1.125 to over 3.00 was one of the better perfomers from the 31 Aug bottom.
James might be right about the longer term though. The court crap didn't help much. If there is a small investor push toward goldstox, TVX might just go for another ride. Also see Dec97/Jan98 runup to April98.
I did buy some for this type of movement.

I hope you were short recently.

I think I'll head home.
God bless what's left of goldbuggery.

You might look at ALTA before buying your 25,000 TVX. I think they are a pretty solid US gold miner, with a good balance sheet and 18 straight quarters of profitability, with new production starting up now. Next year should be up quite a bit, and they move when gold does. Their price is a little less than TVX, so more bang for the $$$. good luck

Forecross--Apparently it trades on the VSE--FRX.U--Can't find it in the paper, or get a quote off the PC or through "Telaction"--like it doesn't
exist??

The only thing that doesn't change is the fact that there is continual change.

Leverage and continual search for higher returns have become destabilizing factors. The equities market has been driven to unsustainable price levels where the only possible return on investment is highly speculative stock price increases ( when was the last time anyone heard the word dividend on the news ) . Earnings and yields cannot possibly provide for real investment growth in the stock market. A shift to other forms of investment will naturally arise out of this fact, combined with the continual search for opportunity. As the FED lowers rates bonds will not be the choice, if the Fed raises rates this only accelerates the shift out of the markets. The fact is that to keep any sort of economic activity going capital will move to where it provides the best utilization and return. Commodities are out of favor right now, but the healthy growth hoped for relies on their production, and they will be the first things to rise in value during any business cycle expansion.

The 401K crowd, at least for the US markets, is indeed driving distortions at this point, even as the deterioration of the competitive advantage of the American worker proceeds. The diminishing returns on technological advances in the US have reached its apex. Now, witness the INTERNET stock craze, the most significant advancement in American commerce and the economy produces nothing. This advancement only makes the redistribution of goods and information more rapid and efficient. What of substance, no what if anything, can the American economy do to grow ( provide increased returns on investment ) commensurate with current price increases in the stock market, while at the same time servicing a debt to income ratio that any accountable individual could not. Someone earlier today suggested that even if the market does not come back to this solar system, the dollars if taken out would produce inflation. Should we be so lucky as to experience this scenario, then the POG and all other things ( sans Internet stocks ) will tend to rise.

One such possibility for an American economic boom would be the production of limitless quantities of clean and cheap energy for the rest of the world. I believe that this will happen within the next 20 years, controlled fusion holds this promise. I also believe that the technology will be achieved in the US or Japan first. Yes, this is a long shot, but so are the growth expectations for the e-industry on an already bandwidth constrained Ethernet.

I will grant that that gold is a durable subject to depletion and not an exhaustible like oil. Exhaustibles, like oil will tend to experience a rise in production costs, without significant technological advancement, or substitution. Oil will become a highly treasured substance without technological advancement. Gold on the other hand has no substitute, and never will. Its extraction costs have reached the bottom. Gold's price can only rise as the supply of currency increases, albeit at a slower than exhaustibles rate in a stagnant world. Alas, the world is ever changing, not stagnant, and gold will have its' shining moments, and dismal days ( years ) .

Now, there is the possibility of a wealth destroying debt implosion. Well, in this scenario we can look forward to an excruciating level of pain and chaos. Incomes will fall ( some precipitously with layoffs ) others just by pay-cuts, smaller bonuses, and increased employee benefit contributions, higher tax rates.... These are but a few examples. The associated lack of market demand for all but the essentials will drive production levels down in a vicious circle ( until those nasty Keynesians show up again. ) Creditors who become the holders of assets and corporations will se these revalued downward. In this event the dollar will lose credibility not because of market forces, but by the demand of the debtors who physically outnumber the creditors. The creditors will gleefully go along, and retain an even larger share of the wealth, while at the same time having shoved the middle and lower classes back down to the bottom of the escalator ( which is running in the down direction ) .

The only way to stay out of this debt implosion mess for joe 6pac is to sell off assets, remove debt, and go into cash investments on the in-going tide then converting to assets with the out-going tide. Cash and gold are very liquid and convertible, and concealable in this scenario. This is why cash is being criminalized, and gold is being jawboned down ( so that every avenue of wealth extraction is exploited. ) On the outgoing tide cash will be talked down while gold criminalized ( 1934? ) as before. Once the penalties are extracted, with the equities markets in the toilet, bankruptcies and foreclosures completed, wealth generally confiscated, then currencies are devalued and assets are king.

Still another scenario is that of the dollar losing its' backing, yep lose faith and what do you have, nice stiff durable paper. Well these guys with the bonds are twice removed from any thing of value. First they must unload the bond paper for yet another piece of script, and then they can buy something real. Oh boy I can hardly wait for interest rates to rise for lack of demand. Then the value of existing bonds goes into the toilet, thus feeding on the basic lack of faith to generate an even greater lack of faith. With electronic transfers it might take all of one weekend to really put some hurt on the old faith in the dollar. Yepo, ya betcha, I'll be glad to be holding mostly gold at that point.

So we ride the knife blade with RR and AG twixt the 'in and the 'de' of the flation family. And all the while the markets sharpening the edge on their own technology. One slip to the left o' the right and gold is golden with only timing the matter of choice.

Nope, I would not bet that gold will go no-where for long. We have the pedal to the metal, and the folks are sleeping..............off to build christmas presents,and bide the the hours. BBL.

Wonder how many keywords I hit, Echelon? Assassin, world-whore three,wKGB, conspiracy, WACO, presidenti al, goldy, cashy, drugsi, ghuns, uranalium, CIAo, MIsex, supercailfragilistcexpilalidosious umdildily,umdildily, it all sounds quite like no way they can catch you as long as you gotum big eyes on um, no problem, no conspiracy, no choice. GOLD Platinum, and commodities are next or second in line, take your pick, but it is not a matter of decades; it is as likely to be weeks as years. Doink.oye get te bi otay.

( 1 ) The Eurodollar is initially a big hit as currencies worldwide topple like dominos.
( 2 ) Y2K movies hit the theatres
( 3 ) Bank runs, panic, madness
( 4 ) International financial market meltdown
( 5 ) The US Dollar crumbles to dust
( 6 ) US citizens start to refuse US dollars in preference for the Euro
( 7 ) A new organization to act as the Federal Reserve of the world is formed and distributes smartcards as an alternative to paper money.
( 8 ) The Beast appoints himself Fraternus Rex Mundi, passes out the biochips, the oceans turn to blood, and all that jazz.

The real question, though, is what this is going to do to the
value of gold.

~Silas~

http://penang.insights.com.my/penang/html/cui_main.htm eclectic eh...

I think that TVX needs a strong JV partner on the Greek property. Never let predicted feasibility study mining costs sway your opinion.

RYO is a good example, see todays news of troubles at at Kemess. It seems that RYO's predicted cost have not jelled, probably the low copper price created the situation; but nevertheless they have not been achieved.

Most of the TVX mines, those that genreally operated well in the past were operated by a JV partner.

Please do not misunderstand me, I wish both TVX and RYO success. TVX once made nice money, but think to soften their risk, they need an experienced partner

My experience with a once nobel miner who produced oil offshore in Greek waters took me for a spin.
Luckly the price returned to what I payed and got a dividend to booth, I sold, but it wasn't worth the ride.

The company was Denison Mines whose main source of income ( Uranium ) had hit the skids; they went into coal, oil and potash - as potash and coal were being developed, the Greeks were giving them hell with the offshore oil fields. Today Denison Mines is a penny stock.

This is just something you should be aware of. IMHO

Gibbous
Forecross trades US OTC frxx.Website is www.forecross.com

You got to be kidding. It is never as bad going out as going in ( 8-^] ) .
Kind of like a gold bear market. ( FWIW I think we have had most all the weak money flushed out and the gold bear is near to ending, maybe after one more session on the toilet? )

Once you let things settle it pepper is o.k. I think you guys are right about the endorphins or high or whatever. I picked up the habit of eating hot peppers a few years ago after I had throat cancer and had to get on some really powerful medication to keep down the stomach acid which has as side effect a drying effect on the mouth which produces painful ulcers sometimes.

Hot peppers make it noticably better for several hours and I haven't had near the number of mouth sores since starting them. Most of them ( including those little dry red chinese ( Red Chinese? ) peppers are just moderately hot. But then the antacid does something to block out some of the taste buds so this is a prejudiced report. I have been eating habenero sauce ( Specific name is McCutcheon's Screaming Hornets ) but never had a chance to try one of the real peppers until today.

Once one is over the shock of first try it is really good. My wife has one left and is finished making pepper sauce so I will probably get to eat it tomorrow.

Perhaps will numb the pain enough to risk buying more silver, particularly as LGB has followed up on posting more info about silver clad high temperature superconductors whis week. Hadn't been able to find out much about it since the first press releases, what was it about 14 months ago?

a shining yellow light or a dark brown pigment? hehehehe.....I'm for the lighter side tonight...

PMF & RLM & others -

Having gone into great detail in the past on this subject, I will give the short version here. My story has remained remarkably consistent over the months, regarding gold, and it did not disappoint. Folks were calling me crazy to short gold last trip above $300. Although I posted I was looking for a modest move down to $285, some folks seemed to think I was calling for a wholesale crash in the POG.

A high US dollar has made producer forward sales attractive. I am not speaking of speculative short sales, which producers also participate in, but true forward sales. Since gold is traded in dollars, the high exchange rates for the Canadian Dollar, the Australian dollar, and the South African rand, have made these sales way attractive. Witness JD's posts regarding the windfall SA mines saw this year.

Outright sales and cheap leases, primarily by European central banks, have fueled this orgy of sales. When one can borrow some gold at .005% to lock in the high POG ( in terms of local currency ) , one is encouraged to lock as much production in at these levels as possible rather than a more expensive hedging strategy in the futures market. I posted some months ago that lease rates would rise at the end of the year and that the cheap gold rates would gradually go away. They are now in the process of doing that.

Since the newly created European Central Bank needs to approve any outright sales or leases of gold by its member nations; the spigot is being turned off. The introducers of the Euro, which I still think is doomed to failure, don't want to take the shine off this dubious and untested currency with more sales or leasing of gold. Rates will continue to rise, and short sales by producers will dwindle. This is a supply/demand argument, plain and simple.

The vaunted "backing" by a mere 15% of gold for this currency is a transparent attempt to make the Euro somehow more solid in the eyes of the world. Since no valuation has been determined for this gold, the 15% number is largely illusionary. Besides, any currency "backed" by gold, must contain therein an ability to convert this currency to gold. This is not possible with gold, since it is traded in US dollars throughout the world. The whole gold "backed: thingy is a red herring and a shameless ploy to add value to a completely untested currency issued by nations that have had mucho trouble just getting along and not killing each other for the last millenium or so. Ask yourselves why Britain opted out of the EMU. Why would any nation give up absolute sovereignty of their own currency is beyond me. This has never been done before, so any proclamations of the wonderful Euro becoming the new reserve currency for the world, are way premature at best.

An interesting aside: I asked Kirsten Peterson of the Austrian Mint what Europeans were doing in preparation for the introduction of the Euro, are they buying gold, I queried? Nay sir, says she, they are buying US $100 dollar bills. It seems as if the benefactors of the world's "new reserve currency" would rather hold the world's existing reserve currency - rather than their Euros, and rather than more gold.

The other piece of the puzzle is individual investor demand. The sales figure of the US Mint, the RCM and others, have all shown upwards of a 500% increase in sales of gold to individuals. I take calls from folks every day. These calls are mostly about gold, and mostly concerned about the possible ramifications of the whole Y2K thingy. The calls range from folks who think Y2K is the end of the world, to calls from those who have zero worries about Y2K but want to make profits based on other peoples worries about Y2K. Regardless of the reason for the call, these are folks who have never looked at gold, or at least not paid it any notice for the last decade or so. This will grow to a groundswell in the first half of 1999 and propel gold back to its more traditional trading range of $350 to $400. Momentum buying from there could carry the prices much higher, but that remains to be seen.

Made a mistake in platinum this year, but after the bundles of cash the noble white metal made my clients last year, most understand that these trades, while costly to hold for extra months, will eventually turn into money makers. My record on silver is much better, but I did get nailed in some silver shorts a year ago. But gold, the reason we are all here, has done exactly as I have said it would. For the last 18 months, gold has move nearly dollar for dollar as I have told folks it would. Pardon the tooting of my golden horn, but I can't recall ever being wrong about gold on these pages. Now that I have made this boastful claim, the archive diggers will search to find the exception. I challenge them to do so. The yellow metal seems to bend to my very will, and recover just in time for all my trades to work out just peachy.

Sadly, there has been no clear opportunity to play gold from the long side these last two years. But that will change soon. I have been very vocal about folks taking delivery of gold when it was hovering in the 270s. I will do the same again, I hope folks listen. Actually, I think $280 will hold. The shorts want to get the books looking pretty by the end of the year. This will be followed by a great short covering rally which will bring us back above $300 - this time for good. This should be the last trip below $300 for at least the next 13 or 14 months. If the Y2K thing is just a hiccup, prepare to sell your gold and short the hell out of it.

Although I have been one of the most outspoken gold bears on this site for the last two years, I told folks that I would be just as enthusiastic about gold on the long side - when the market told me it would last. I am being told that now. I am beginning to load up again on gold coins for delivery and bullion for long term holders who do not want leverage or delivery. I have yet to place any trades on gold on the long side, but I will report it here when I do. If one is buying for delivery, $285 is a good spot price. This is within 5% of the $272 bottom - which will hold.

This was the short answer. I am glad nobody asked for the long one.

OK

nikkei

12/24 12:45

p.m.

13,705.38

-74.07

yen

12/24 1:00

p.m.

116.02 - 05

-1.05

Jbonds

12/24 12:45

p.m.

1.930 %

+0.030

"And some investors wonder whether Brazil will be able to
tap the second part of a $41.5 billion international aid
package.

'There is a risk that last week's disbursement will be the
last,' said Arturo Porzecanski, ING Baring's managing
director and chief America's economist."

- today's WSJ Credit Markets column

Then Japan's various stimulus packages this year totaled
some $390 billion, or equal to Australia's entire GDP.


An Australia here, an Australia there, pretty soon...

Well put. The recent market has precipitated much the same understanding/feeling here.

We are *or should be* near a pivital point. The momentum has just been stronger that I expected.

I like Alta FWIW. They consistently turn a profit and seem to run a tight well managed co. I owned some RYO and TVX and sold both one for a little profit, one for a little loss. Alta seems to flow well with POG. Not debt heavy and seem to have plenty of upside potential. Consistent profitability would speak well for their remaining in the game till POG makes it's move. They are not the highest nor the lowest producers in the business, but I don't consider that a flaw. I would suggest giving them at least a look.

I'm not into short term trading. I only invested what I can live without. However, I would prefer not to lose it! I am patient I can wait till the turn up and I feel Alta will still be there and give me a nice bang for my buck. As usual, the information I and others give on this site is worth nor more or no less than you paid for it. DO NOT basis decisions on my suggestions.

which...wishes you and yours well...Namaste'

Thanx. I am very long gold, but I need to diversify the metals. Will get Pt ( unless you strongly protest ) at new years party and unload paper. JOPO as always...the presents need wrappin. Why do you like eagles better than maples praytell, if you have a short answer?

S&P - Last week I thought we would have a minor dip to under 1200 before hitting 1250, it turned out to be an intraday dip to about 1205 then went up toward my longterm objective of 1250. 1250 is at the top of a channel on a monthly chart going back several years. In one of my previous posts
I mentioned that I wouldn't consider buying puts until the SnP hit 1250. At todays highs we were .005% away from that number. I'm looking for some type of pull back here. I don't know if this is a major top, minor top or no top at all. I sold my remaining calls at the close and bought puts.

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni19981224DA4J9242.htm

Thanks

I needed that

Oh, on another note, the Brazilian legislature gave themselves
a 59% raise the other day. Like they say, you're in good hands
with all-state.

Out of a bit over 200K ounces in platinum coin sales this year, nearly 160K ounces have been the Platinum American Eagle. The market has spoken, they want the Eagles. Besides, the Eagle is one of the prettiest coins I have ever seen. Also even indeey so, they are changing one face of the coin each year. This is something that the US cannot do with the gold or silver Eagle because the law authorizing their striking does not allow for design changes. The Platinum Eagle has discretionary design built into the authorization to strike. The cost for the Eagle is about $0.80 less than the Leaf.

Also besides, I am getting sick and tired of looking at Queen Elizabeth. The Maple Leaf on the obverse is fine, but the stern visage of the Queen on the reverse is a tiresome view indeedy.

Yep.


PS
Way good post earlier

OK

Bless you, and happy new year. Was that your subtle way of saying QEII looks like a rear end? Last I heard she was the obverse. hehe. I'll be callin when the 1040 cycle is new.

May the Holiday SHINE God bless everyone at Kitco Merry Christmas.

"Tis a gift to be simple, tis a gift to be free..." Judy Collins, Simple Gifts. Whales and Nightingales alblum...long, long time ago...some will remember.

Tom