Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 00:14 - ID#219363)
Glancing around at Bart's product pages and happened on one for gold sheet, question is, what is that used for ? Is that the same thing as gold leaf ? Appreciate any information, was just curious. Oh, btw, if that isn't gold leaf, where can you get gold leaf ?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 00:30 - ID#257148)
back from post-prandial zzzzzzz
Thank you for the correction on 9kt refining. If you're still about, please can you tell me what is alloyed with gold to obtain Rose gold and White gold. TIA

THe 2 Rand coins were minted from 1961-1983. I have no photos, nor have ever seen one. However, the World Gold Coin Catalogue {many thanks Nick@catalogue} pictures them as identical, but for value and weight, as all the Krands: Springbok on reverse, some old geezer on the obverse. Remarkably unimaginative, these S Africans. Really? You'd send one? Yes Please! But you'll have to give me your address for Bank draft.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 00:52 - ID#412172)
gold per human
I have seen it hear posted over that last two years to apparent accuracy, that there is approximately .75-1.25 oz of above ground gold per person in the world today.
Considering the price relative to average income in US, it is probably less than the new price of the tires on most peoples cars in US ( per capita ) . While it is obvious that this can quickly change in the future
if demand changes, it will take a paradigm change in the internut market to effect a substantial change here in the US.
With Y2k and the Euro, I guesstimate our odds at better than 50/50 int he goldbug favor.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 00:55 - ID#412172)
My oh My
Wow, ol George D. is hard on the spelinkg, n'est ce pas?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 01:02 - ID#257148)
Knock, knock.
WHo is George D? Is he the old Geezer on the obverse of your {S Africa's} Krand? TIA

(Mon Dec 28 1998 01:08 - ID#288231)


really cool charts....and links....
gold is in a channel.....silver tambien....
break-out to the up-side is imminent............imm...


(Mon Dec 28 1998 01:14 - ID#340344)
Thank you for your 23:32. I ordered and received a check-creating program along with "free" 750 blanks. It did not occur to me that making my own checks would have legal ramifications. Certainly something to take into consideration.

Cherokee, some groups of letters seen on Kitco posts are written not quite as Webster's would display them. Bugs me a lot. "Lose/ loose" and "loser/ looser" are so frequently misspelled that I scream. But the brilliance that often accompanies the imperfections softens my reaction.
My spelling ability usually doesn't buy me a cup of coffee, much less give me the heightened brilliance to make a great trade. And on the subject of "groups of letters," no poster's contributions are more interesting than yours, and if you would be so kind as to translate a few of your abbreviations I would be appreciative. More difficult than a crossword puzzle, they are, as I have found no clues in over a year of studying this site. ( Also: their, there, they're ) Thanksamillion.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 01:15 - ID#386245)
Steve Waugh@golden tonne
Bet the northerners can't figure that one out!? ( Poms excluded )
POG is inching ( centimetering ) up in Asia. Danged English language can't keep up with the decimal system. Don't know if this qualifies for a proper right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom in gold. I always use a fudge factor with these things but a purist would probably be looking for the 280 area. Right higher than left. This is a good sign, n'est pas?? I am tired of this bottom and have got my eyes on higher ground. No comments please.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 02:13 - ID#252150)
Highly unlikely that the USD will ever face competition from a single Asian
currency. I have serious doubts that the EURO will really pose much of a threat for the forseeable future either.

From The Sunday Times:

Asian currency ruled out

EUROPE's employment of the single currency is not a suitable model for Asia because the region would have to adopt common fiscal policies to achieve the goal, says a leading European economist. Alfred Steinherr, chief economist and director-general of the European Investment Bank, said Asia would need tremendous institutional efforts to introduce a single currency, and it would take too much time. It would also mean reinforcing co-operation among central banks and finance ministers, as well as allowing free movement of labour and bringing customs and government purchasing policies into line, he said.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 02:14 - ID#386245)
Just re-read a year ago today
at this time period. Kitco was vibrant, optimistic and a cornucopia of informative posts. Many are now gone. The survivors have ( mostly ) had the stuffing knocked out of them. Copied just a couple of a very interesting conversation:

Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 01:21
Producer ( Sorry Myrmidion ) ID#226355:
Been 'rasslin with farfel over new pairadimes. Gold Actually looks quite cheap to me at sub 300. Now if we could just get gold and nicotine mixed...
Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 00:09
aurator ( Living in silver houses throwing greens? ) ID#257148:
JTF I've been out in the greenhouses. My apologies for my acerbity last night. Regrettably, some names ( Lobang Rampa, Castenada, Heyerdahl and yes Ananda Marga, throw me into paroxysms of salty swearing. Just don't like to see their lies bandied about in sensible discussion.
I shall promise not to change

and half as smart
Well, the last statement was certainly astute!!!
Ra in my world:
WHEN gold begins a bull market the fine posters of old will appear out of the woodwork. Until then, just newbies and punching bags left at Kitco.

Greenstone Gold
(Mon Dec 28 1998 03:33 - ID#428218)
Nick@C........indeed a year has gone..........

...and the reality of the situation is US@285 per ounce.

I work in the gold exploration and mining industry, and I would therfore consider myself optimistic concerning the future gold price. However, with all the wishing in the world we, that is the Kitco Club, can only sit on the sidelines and watch the old price go by.

I consider that gold is controlled by a powerful Cartel, and the the gold price is beyond the markets. If, when and how the gold price "goes", even up to a modist US$ would ease a lot of pain within the industry.

With the exception of the larger gold producers in Western Australia, such as Homestake and Normandy, thye exploration dollar is now at a critical stage. Over the next six months, given the current gold price, the exploration will largely die....there are now in excesss of 1300 geologists unemployed in Western Australia.

The Mabo and Wik issues do not help.

Myself, I think it is going to be a case of overseas here I come, for a year or two.

Compliments of the season.



(Mon Dec 28 1998 04:04 - ID#257148)
How many employed Geologists are there in Stralia?
Some kinda indicator lies buried here.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 04:09 - ID#33182)
Bank of China to offer Euro business services
China gave financial institutions, enterprises, and individuals the green light to accept and use the Euro in economic, trade, and financial exchanges with the EMU from January 1. The Bank of China plans to offer Euro business services after the introduction of the new currency next year. The bank will provide Euro exchange rate information and help clients open Euro accounts. The sanctioning of the the Euro by China as well as the governments purchasing of the Euro as a reserve currency will lend more credibility the fledgling European endeavor.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 04:33 - ID#258302)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 04:43 - ID#399147)
Baruch Ha Shem
Contact me at I brought 50 Sovs and some other stuff over and found out some interesteing things along the way AFTER I had sold far too many of my Maple leafs and AEs.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 05:00 - ID#169332)
James: re - "...unlikely USD will ever face competion...Asian currency."
James: re "...unlikely USD will ever face competition from single Asian currency."

Although the USD may strengthen in terms of the Yen for awhile, I am not convinced this will last. Japan sells 31 billion ( $ value ) 10 year bonds in January. Two sales of 15.5 each are scheduled. Steinherr ( the European economist you quote ) would not be a buyer. I think if I had to choose between 10 year Treasuries and the Japanese ones, today, I would favor the latter. I would avoid Japanese stocks, however. This is just a personal view. I also wonder if the US will eventually be forced to repudiate its bonds. If we had to carry the cost of fighting two wars, for example, this might prove necessary.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 05:08 - ID#329186)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 05:12 - ID#386245)
'Been Down So Long
It Looks Like Up To Me.' I read this book in the late 60's. The most piquant part of the book was when the main character, in front of a crowd of squillions, raised his central digit. He held it high as the 'only' sign that would describe the times.

I now raise my central digit to the market manipulators. You all know of whom I speak. For their short term gains, they have guaranteed the apocalypse to come. They have sent their subjects into an ephemeral paroxysm of joy. This shall be followed by a generation of sorrow.

Those of you whom have followed this discussion know of what I speak. You will be better prepared than most. You will be physically and psychologically ready for what is to come. We may be out of touch, but I will be thinking of you. Namaste and take care.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 05:15 - ID#329186)
All Kitcoites after all the "festivities" how about a good read power of the international bankers
the 1st url is the cast
then for the story gives another insite into the ability to manipulate.

hope they have enough rope

go gold & silver
happy 1999 & 2000 to all

(Mon Dec 28 1998 05:33 - ID#258302)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 06:31 - ID#399147)
Baruch Ha Shem
Your e-mail didn't make it try again. Shalom

(Mon Dec 28 1998 06:34 - ID#253418)
Pretty quiet on Kitco may time for a change...
Chatting with you all here the last nine months has been entertaining and enlightening - if not money making. As the new year rolls out I suggest we look for other ways to make money than being long the metal miners. Curious earlier post from down under noted that 1300 geologists are out of work - do we need or do they need that many geologist in Australia. OIl drillers are shutting down or scaleing way back. High cost production is out, deflation is in, until it ends gold will be on its back.

The only thing that will trigger me further into gold and the miners is a simulutaneous decline in the dollar, bonds and the stock market.

Best bet for '99: the stock market will fade from April to December - the winning stock group will be Y2K related - check out TAVA and and silver will stay about the same with no more than a 10% variance up or down from current levels.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 06:35 - ID#365216)
Platinum coins?
Why is it that the Platinum Eagles are so much smaller than the
golden eagles for the same amount of precious metal?


Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:02 - ID#33182)
"Stability between Dollar, Euro, and Yen key issue for 1999"
Japan's Sakakibara says believes Euro will probably be strong against the Dollar; stability between Dollar, Euro, and Yen key issue for 1999; wants to discuss with Europe ways to stabilize Euro-Yen parity.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:08 - ID#288466)
General - Pt vs. Au
Platinum is more dense than gold ( density of Pt is 21.45 grams/cubic cm, Au is 19.3 ) so the same mass of Platinum occupies about 10% less volume than gold.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:22 - ID#411440)
@ silverbaron: Do you have any information on the
composition of white gold? I have a white gold ring marked 18K.
How can something that is 75% gold be white?????? TIA. Rhody

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:34 - ID#288466)
My Lange's "Handbook of Chemistry" lists the following compositions for white gold:

90% Au, 10% Pd or
60% Au, 40% Pt

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:35 - ID#288466)
Something for just about everyone

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:41 - ID#430236)
in the meantime...
... FSESX is tempting... to me, anyway.
Tradable bump is most likely coming up...IMHO
and in the meantime the US MINT is oiling its coin presses and getting ready to produce THE LAST ( !!!!! ) American Eagles of this MILLENIUM ( !!!! ) ...I guess nobody on this thread will be interested by those! eheheh!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:44 - ID#288466)
Hmmmmmm....the last time the date was X999....

(Mon Dec 28 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
London morning currency news

(Mon Dec 28 1998 08:04 - ID#411440)
@ Silverbaron: So white gold is a platinum/gold alloy!
That is a surprise. I was told that platinum group metals are
very difficult to alloy. I knew it had to be something like this,
because natural alloys of native gold ( gold/silver ) must have
the gold content diluted by the silver to the 50% level before
gold loses its distinctive yellow hue. A natural ( native gold )
alloy is called 'electrum' at this stage.

Seasons greetings, Rhody

(Mon Dec 28 1998 08:21 - ID#430236)
ze color of gold.... an educative link...
The following tables tell you just how much of what goes into which color of gold.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 08:49 - ID#317211)
CPO@AU - your 5:15 regarding International Bankers/manipulation
reads very similar to History according to the John Birch Society.

I myself am not pro nor con the Birchers, and find some of their/
there/they're ideas interesting, if not downright plausible.

Conspiracy theorists? or has kitco been invaded?

Mike Sheller
(Mon Dec 28 1998 08:49 - ID#348257)
Inasmuch as we have just celebrated the coming into the world of the Savior of the Piscean Age, Jesus the Christ, it may be fitting to preach a short ( hopefully ) sermonette to the goldbugs.

The Lord was a contrarian, that no one can deny. "Blessed are the poor in spirit," he taught, "for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven." "Blessed are they which hunger and thirst after righteousness, for they shall be filled." And, obviously with current day goldbugs in mind, one cannot help but take solace in "Blessed are they that mourn; for they shall be comforted."

The point, brothers and sisters at the Church of the Holy Bullion Bar at Kitco ( Reformed ) is that bull markets always arise from the point of deepest depression, most timorous trepidation, and thoroughly dashed confidence. If you are feeling that you have just wasted a year and a half of your emotional life, and ten years worth of hard-earned capital on the fortunes of gold, then you are clearly in a state of mourning. You shall be comforted.

If you hunger after profits in a world that seems to routinely withold them from you, while casting riches at the feet of unworthy knaves just out of junior college trading internet stocks, then take heart - you shall be filled.

If it is all too clear to you that the governments and banks and technocrats of the world have zeroed in on you, your allies, and everything you hold sacred to strip you of your freedom, your money, and your gold, then be reassured - "Blessed are they who are persecuted for righteousness' sake: for theirs is the Kingdom of Heaven."

When you find friends and co-workers laughing uproariously every time you predict that gold will surely blast to $500 in the coming week, while the Dow spins merrily upward and people you know who can't tell a dividend from a stipend are doubling their money in shares with a .com at the end of their names every year ( nay, MONTH ) , "rejoice and be exceedingly glad; for great is your reward in heaven; for so persecuted they the prophets which were before you ( Jim Dines, Howard Ruff, Ayn Rand, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, the young Alan Greenspan ) ."

You stand in the darkness now, encompassed round about by thine enemies. Yet there is an invisible presence supporting and protecting you. It is Justice, and Truth. The new cycle will emerge, slowly, embryonically, from the old. It is only now, whilst hope is nearly gone, that the Lord may emerge and lead the way.

Enjoy the labors of the Day, brothers and sisters, for the Night cometh all too soon.

So ends our sermonette for today. Go in Peace.

El Borak
(Mon Dec 28 1998 08:53 - ID#230155)
SilverBaron re: X999
It never happened. Although a few 16th century scholars postulated widespread fear and panic in 999, the vast majority of medieval scholars believe 999/1000 was a year like any other. There is no documentary evidence of any widespread panic, fear, or even conscious awareness that Y1K was "special".

Evidence or not, ii seems that panic in 999 was a story too good *not* to be true, eh?

Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of Republican Congress brand inaction figures and Drac-B-Gone vampire repellent. Available everywhere.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:09 - ID#119358)
@M. O'Sheller........a hearty AMEN to YA!!!
Brother O'Sheller, yes, for I have sinned and fallen short of the Glory of Gold.

Now, if our brothers and sisters, would continue singing the third verse of "just as I am"....Brother, I know there's someone out there today who needs to come forward and rededicate his or her life to the service of gold. Yes, Brother Greenspan, you have come forward....and now, evn now, your sins are washed away. amen.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:12 - ID#317211)
Snipped from Silverbaron's 7:35
"We are a Republican Government. Real liberty is never found
in despotism or in the extremes of Democracy." - Alexander Hamilton.

"I like it a lot." - Tantalus

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:13 - ID#26793)
Fed expected to pump in $21 billion by Wednesday

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:17 - ID#26793)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:22 - ID#317193)
So, what do dat mean?


(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:28 - ID#20359)
Y2K...FEMA...National War Games Exercises...what a relief...Clinlter will be in charge...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:33 - ID#26793)
I think it means that bonds are in trouble, Japanese seem to be selling and the Fed is buying with printed dollars. Long rates are going up with the 30 year T-bond falling from 4.75% in October to 5.20% now. The bond market is much, much, bigger than the stock market and more important to the Fed. A lot of this bond problem is likely hedge fund related.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:37 - ID#33184)
U.S. confirms it returned fire after Iraq fired surface to air missles in the northern "No-Fly Zone". Saddam appears to be pushing his limits after the failed U.S./U.K. air campaign of a week ago

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 28 1998 09:59 - ID#242214)
Bonds In Trouble
So. We should have an M-1 growth rate to match M-3 now? : )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:02 - ID#339274)
8hour rally
over and testing 60,stay short from Thursday

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:03 - ID#33184)
Sun moving into alignment with Galactic Center
The exact time of this year's Winter Solstice marks the moment when the Sun will begin moving into exact alignment with our Galactic Center. In more precise terms, this means that the center of the Sun will come into ALIGNMENT with the galactic equator, that is, the center line of our Milky Way galaxy. The process began 11 years ago, 3 months after the Harmonic Convergence of 1987. The period of exact alignment between Sun and Galactic Center will last 3 years until December 2001. The Sun will then pass completely to the other side of the galactic equator during the next 11 years.

To the Mayan Keepers of Time, Monday marked the beginning of a new Great Year cycle of 25,920 years.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:10 - ID#20359)
Cage Rattler, Namaste' gulp and a puff...the US Government has embarked on a
deadly path with this latest series of stunts in IRAQ...a very deadly path...a path started long ago and now...without question too far along...the horrors born of this asanine policy have yet to come home to American soil and roost...and I say worry...because they will...and once again innocents will be murdered and the blood will be on the hands of those who swear an oath to protect...

The entire thing is sickening...modern...advanced...such words utilized to describe the world are pathetic...pathetic...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:19 - ID#365216)
Y2K...FEMA...National War Games Exercises...what a relief...Clinlter will be in charge...
Famous last words: "We're from the government and we're here to
help you."

Patriot's last words: "I am a US Citizen and entitled to rights under
its COnstitution. You are violating these rights. This is unacceptable
and will not be tolerated. If you persist, you may have my guns:
bullets first."

Got God, gold, guns, grub, generators, and guts?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:31 - ID#288466)
Speaking of pumping.......local gasoline prices now $0.66/gallon including all Fed and State taxes. Distilled water is more expensive than gasoline ( by a lot ) .

Shoulda held on to that gas-guzzling '66 GTO.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:33 - ID#333127)
gold stks
Bought back in on 23rd,should have waited.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:37 - ID#369352)
SilverBaron - Gas
What state are you buying gas for $.66/gal....When my wife and I went home to North Carolina, we were paying $.89/gal...that's the lowest I've seen it...May be worth my time to drive there to get those kind of prices....Happy Holidays to ya....

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:49 - ID#348169)
@Cage Rattler
Are you putting us on? Is this info accurate? Seems quite a coincidence that this alignment would take place at the precise time of our winter solstice. And as for Mayan calendar being accurate with a 25,920 year cycle and that cycle also matching up to our Galatic alignment/winter solstice/millenium dawn etc., well, it's giving me the heebie-jeebies just talking about it. Sounds like Machuu Pichuu is the place to spend midnight Dec. 31 1999 in order to greet our new masters who will return to earth to reclaim Pizzaro's stolen Gold along with all the other hoards that mankind has toiled to accumulate in the last few thousand years.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:56 - ID#273112)
A little post-Christmas cheer for platinum group metals - notice Johnson-Mathey involvement

Plug Power firm in New York demos residential fuel-cell system using natural gas

Spud, "So Bill, how's Hill's left swing?"

(Mon Dec 28 1998 10:57 - ID#288466)
trader vic
The price is on the border of NC and SC, just south of Charlotte, but from gas stations on either side of the state line.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:01 - ID#317193)
We watch this new bond market together. Yes!

Bonds will tell the tale for the PM outlook...some real serious money to be made and lost with government bonds...Japan and US.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:02 - ID#26793)
A worthwhile repost

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:08 - ID#273112)
Y2K? No, problem. We've got it fixed at Social Security

now, let me get this straight, the chap appointed by William Jefferson Clinter, says Social Security is now Y2K compliant.

"I did not have sex with that woman ( pause ) Miss Lewinsky"

yea, I believe ya, like boss, like subordinate.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:10 - ID#26793)
Banks lost $300 billion in Asia (so far); hedge funds lost only $30 billion (so far)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:11 - ID#20359)
for some of my favorite Kitcoites looking for out of print yuz goesz...yup

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:19 - ID#26793)
Second derivative trading firm suspended from London exchange for default.

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:22 - ID#242214)
SS Y2K Fixed?
Gee, how odd. A few weeks ago, in the Y2K newsgroup, SS had
just begun to evaluate Y2K requirements. : )

go, Clinton, take these suckers for all they are worth. :0

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:25 - ID#348169)
Black Gold Price Conversion for Canadians
trader vic's and Silverbarons gasoline qoutes are probably about the low end of the scale. If we take it that Americans, on average, are paying about $1.00 a gallon, the conversion works out something like this:
$1.00 * 1.25 * 1.54 = $1.92Cnd/Imperial Gallon. The American gallon is only 80% as large, thus the multiplication by 1.25 to compare apples to apples. We need to give the bank about $1.54 to buy a US dollar right now ( pity all the snowbirds this year ) and so the average American price for gasoline would be about $1.92 Canadian for an Imperial ( Canadian ) gallon. I have found in the past that the price in Toronto is a benchmark for the Canadian average price. ( Costs more in Quebec, Maritimes and isolated areas, ( such as N. Ontario, Interior B.C. etc. ) , and less in Alberta and Saskatchewan. ) Right now we are at about $2.25 per Gallon of regular in Toronto. This means that Canadians are paying about 15% more in extra taxes to governments and profits to oil companies to drive on our roads.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:38 - ID#57290)
T1---the ugly legacy we will inherit from WJC and "dessert phox"
Our harmonics are convergent on that issue. I believe that in the enormous community of foreigners in the US, there are devout people who will exact retribution against us for our corrupt national policies and wars of foolish aggression. I blame our nation in part, and our treasonous and evil officials in toto, for the coming conflagration. It almost seems that WJC wants something like this to happen. He keeps rubbing the worlds nose in our dirty business, how can any sane person not think that the rest of the world will just roll over and submit to this crap?? When the backlash comes in amerika, he is then justified in declaring Martial Law ( to protect the children, of course ) and the impeachment issue is forever gone!! What a clever lad he is. What fools we are!! We will sink into the dustbin of history--move over Babylon.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:39 - ID#348169)
1998 Gold Price Summary
FLAT! After all our wonderful debate, fretting and analysis gold has been, when all is said and done, a non issue to the rest of the world.
The final close of 1997: $US 289.90. The final close of 1997? Darn close to that of one year ago. In other words: FLAT! Last person to leave the room please turn off the monitor. Thanks.

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:41 - ID#33184)
@Mooney - Calendar convergences
My source on these sort of matters is usually reasonably reliable. Apparently the really critical timeshift point occurs on 2012/12/21.
Some other interesting links I have found are below:

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:43 - ID#434108)
Economic Winter vs. "The Goldilocks Economy"
Notwithstanding the current ebullience of the U.S stock-markets,
and the euphoria of "internet issues".....

the underlying, critical, matter at hand ....
and 64-dollar question is....:

Will world-wide "Economic Winter" ...
undermine, and overtake ...
"The Goldilocks Economy" ?

Here is my reply, for now:

"Goldilocks Is Alive & Well" vs. "Economic Winter"
Mon, 28 Dec 1998 08:42:44 -0800
David Blair Macrory
RE: Your 12/23/98 editorial, at,
regarding the U.S. Economy.

Dear Sir:

May I suggest another editorial subject, and title:

"The Year of Uncertainty -- 1999" .

( Maybe what the web needs, is an 'open' internet site,
dedicated to the healthy principle of:
"reasoned and courteous debate"....and discussion.....
with various 'discussion-boards', or 'chat-rooms'...on any variety of
subjects/topics, or areas-of-interest. )

Considering the subject of -- "The Economy" ....
( -- and your - "the goldilocks economy" )

In respectful "rebuttal" to your editorial, published at
on 12/23/98, ( - by Dr. Irwin Kellner --, "Goldilocks Is Alive and Well" )

My response, and questioning, and 'challenge',
to/for you, Dr. Kellner, would be something like this:

Dear Dr. Kellner,

Are the U.S. economy, and markets, really "happily skipping" their way
into 1999?
Are you really so sure -! ........ - as this new year of growing
begins to unfold?

Seems to me, the U.S. economy, if it is skipping at all -- it is
skipping further and further out on a precarious ledge...

As I see it, this vulnerable, precarious "economic ledge",
has three major factors, or components:

#1. The over-extended U.S. consumers, are about to experience
as they wake-up, temporarily sated, from one more lemming-like buying ( -
and borrowing ) spree, over the recent holiday season. And with a
national, individual saving's rate, that is one of the lowest in the
world.....--why, if this isn't skipping out on-to
an economic and financial "ledge" .....then I guess you may be
we're simply "skipping happily into 1999"....!

#2. U.S. corporate layoffs will continue to mount, as growing
gathers momentum. The 'competitve-devaluation' impact, of sinking
currencies, internationally, is the U.S. economy's "achille's heel".
This is pushing the U.S.
relentlessly, toward a non-competitve status, in international trade.
As U.S. ports, & market-places, continue to flood with "cheap" foreign
the monthly U.S trade-deficit accelerates. And U.S. companies, for
their very survival, will have no choice, but to continue to re-trench,
cut-back; and lay-off growing thousand of employees, nation-wide.

#3. The world-wide currency turmoil, and credit-deflation, that began
in Asia in 1997,
and has since then, continued to spread -- first to Russia & eastern
Europe, and more
recently to Brazil & South America -- this "deflation contagion", will
impact and undermine the U.S. economy and markets, with growing
momentum, in 1999.

The global economy's growing, deflationary impact
on the U.S., and Europe, cannot be avoided.

The U.S. economy's inter-connectedness to world market changes, as well
as it's inherent 'weak-links', and growing vulnerability....-- all of
these factors, and more.....require in-depth analysis, editorial review,
and a balance
of varying conclusions, and observations, offered.

Surely, what is really going on, in the U.S. & world economies,
warrant a closer look, and more thorough review and discussion,
than your editorial suggests is "Goldilocks Is Alive &

We'd all be wiser, and better-off, to at least acknowledge,
that we ( --including the U.S. economy & markets-- ) are not immune to the
growing uncertainties of 1999......and,
that these uncertainties, need to be studied & reviewed in depth,
and discussed, with a welcomed diversity of points-of-view considered.

In the "final analysis", I trust that we......
we are all committed to.....:

to the search for truth....and,
to finding solutions ...
for the challenges that present us...

in our uncertain economic world..... of the dawn of the

Personally, I believe:
"Economic Winter", and "the deflation contagion", is spreading...
and will eventually
the entire economic world..... including "the Goldilocks Economy of the

In my judgement a genuine, internationally-agreed to solution to this
world-wide, economic drama of global recession, and perhaps
....must be, and ultimately -- sooner or later -- will be found .

And it will evolve, out of the world-wide need for a common money --
a unit of internationally acceptable & trusted money -- a universal
medium of exchange and store-of-value....that is immune to both
and deflation.....and that is impervious to any one nation, or group of
nation's manipulation, attempted control, or domination.

This will be found in gold-defined, -backed, and -convertible....
currencies and credit instruments,
at free-market values, that are internationally agreed to,
and freely, openly exchanged.

This will, in my judgement, restore --
order, confidence, integrity, and renewed vitality...
to the world economy....
bringing an end to the "Economic Winter".....which is now
unfolding, across the world.... ( including the "goldilocks economy". )

David B. Macrory

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:46 - ID#20359)
jinx44, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...if Clintler says one more thing about "the" children
I will gag...America has been Rhode hard by this pissant and put up wet...yup...uh huh...and all these Executive Orders...gutting of the military...foul military orders and operations from a coward who in his own words loathes that same military...Clintler is one of Jack's Asses greatest dirtbags...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:54 - ID#411251)

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:54 - ID#33184)
E-Bay is up 1488% since it went public and has a market cap of $11 billion
Did anyone make 1488% on their gold? I didn't!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:56 - ID#339274)
Sell signal generated

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 28 1998 11:58 - ID#242214)
E-Bay at 1500% increase
According to an news article I read last week, E-Bay also
has 150 on-line auction competitors now. : )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:02 - ID#258273)
China to sell dollars and US bonds?

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:08 - ID#273112)
@Cage Rattler and Who Cares?
yesss ... everyone got their fingers on the 'SHORT' button?

AOL at least has n-suckers to fleece each month for cash, and Amazon does sell things in a timely manner, but Ebay? Take that %1,500 going the other way.

When this Internet mania crashes, it's going to go fast.

Spud, headed to La Madelines for lunch

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:16 - ID#33184)
Weapons of Mass Deception

Cage Rattler
(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:22 - ID#33184)
S & P 500 correlated to 1986 : 80% over last 237 days

Aragorn III
(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:33 - ID#212323)
aurator---twelve hours ago you made this statement
" ...Krands: Springbok on reverse, some old geezer on the obverse.
Remarkably unimaginative, these S Africans..."

You have a wealth of knowledge, so I am inclined to believe you were just playing around on this one. But in the event that you don't know 'the geezer', or for the benefit of anyone curious about 'the geezer', 'the geezer' on the Krugerrand is none other than Paul ( Stephanus Johannes Paulus ) Kruger, 1825-1904, statesman, and president of the South African republic from 1883-1902. Remembering that 'the geezer' is Mr. Kruger is a great assistance to anyone plagued with uncertainty in the proper spelling of K-rand in full...not too many G's and just enough R's.

got springboks?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:37 - ID#190411)
El Borak, nice to see you back
You are always good for a laugh. We goldbugs need one.
Here's a good piece on Saddam:

(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:46 - ID#190411)
Does it seem that the Kitco Backup site graphic slows everything down?
It is behaving as it did in the past, prior to Bart's fix.
You do remember when he had the repeated tests that ran fast even when he had everyone pile on the site in concert.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 12:47 - ID#190411)
Does it seem that the Kitco Backup site graphic slows everything down?
It is behaving as it did in the past, prior to Bart's fix.
You do remember when he had the repeated tests that ran fast even when he had everyone pile on the site in concert.
The end of transmission stoplight thing on the browser does not go off when the site is slow.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:02 - ID#26793)
Inflation rates by country, reserves (excluding gold), and more.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:16 - ID#31876)
"Mutual Funds are Buying Into Net Stocks"
From DETROIT NEWS, Yahoo, Amazon, Books-A-Million, and eBay are
showing up in fund portfolios. I suppose this is the last
step just before the crash. Sheesh!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:16 - ID#288466)
tolerant1 @ out-of-print books
Here's another valuable service for old books:

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:17 - ID#278287)
Internet speculation
1] 12/7/98 Active aparel Goup symbol aagp debutes on otc small cap at
one and change.
2]12/8/98 Active Aparel Group symbol aagp says that it will soon debute
3]Today it makes it'sgrand debute @14 up 13pts!
Believe me when I tell you the market will do to these internet stks what the railroad did to the buffalo.When is anybodies guess.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:18 - ID#190411)
Donald, that chart says a good deal.
US has less reserve than Singapore, the highest trade deficit, and the lowest savings.
Rather bleak.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:29 - ID#410194)
A year ago today (educational reality check!)
Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 19:15
It's just like FridaY!!!! As I speak the Nikkei is already hammered down 105 points ( -0.71% ) ! Can any rational and reasonably intelligent analyst not believe that a good percent of the vast Japanese savings will SOON find their way into the gold refuge?!

Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 15:28
Puetz ( ) ID#222167:
The "shot that's heard around to world" ( the one that kills the stock-market bull ) is likely to come on the first trading day ( Jan. 2 ) or the second trading day ( Jan. 5 ) of the new year.

Date: Sun Dec 28 1997 14:45
cherokee__A ( @---buying-platinum-out-of-money-calls-monday-------- ) ID#344308:
logging-on to kitco with no problems makes me smile.
if bonds have truly topped, then you will be responsible ( partly )
for making me buy puts right as a market topped!
you are most surely an asset..........THE DON-------

(Mon Dec 28 1998 13:36 - ID#20359)
SilverBaron, Namaste', gulp and a puff to ya...thanks...hope you and yours are
enjoying splendid Holiday festivities...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:07 - ID#30345)
How about posting one one your present predictions, each time you post those of others who missed the mark?

EZ Believer
(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:13 - ID#226287)
Donald .... Keep your eye on the derivative ball ....
In over 15 years of PM investing I have never seen such pessimism. Even die hard goldbugs are responding with comments like: "will the last
one turn out the lights", "gold is totally controlled and will never rise in price in order to protect fiat systems", "were going to $200", "get a life"
and on and on. Raising capital for exploration and production facilities is next to impossible. The ones that are must "give away the farm" for a little shot in the arm. I believe it is safe to say morale is at a near record
low. The stranglehold on gold appears unstoppable. Not a ray of light can penetrate the dark cloud over gold in the public eye.

It is obvious you are tracking something I'm following with undivided attention. ( By the way, thanks for the informative posts ) Many Kitcoites are under the impression that the puppeteers of the world financial markets are infalible. That the tentacles of these unseen dictators reach
unopposed into every economy of the world, and that for their own selfich purposes gold will not be allowed to compete with their system.


The central banks and their corresponding ownership interests are soon in for a rude awakening. You see, old world financial institutions are run by people. Any astute observer of family built business empires quickly recognizes a significant weakening effect of almost every successive generation. Unless a capable outside interest steps in, most heirs run even the most successful enterprise into the ground in a short time. Don't think for a minute that the global financial powerbrokers are exempt from this proven cycle of history.

With the new regime comes a mentality that gold really is a relic, and the vast stockpiles accumulated by past generations represent a weight that must be laboriously carried in spite of the real opportunities in the paper blizzard. This is the sole purpose behind gold loans. A method of bringing the dead wood from the vaults and making it produce something. These would be controllers of the future are in for one of the oldest lessons in banking. "A loan is only an asset as long as the debtor has the ability to pay". The term "counterparty credit risk" is about to take on a whole new meaning. Not just gold loans either. Many of the worlds largest financial institutions engage in speculative practices thinking that they are "hedged" by another party.

This giant house of cards will come down as fast as a lightning bolt and with very little warning. The current tremors are being ignored or swept under the rug. When the real earthquake starts hard assets will revert back to their traditional place in the bedrock of history. Investments sown in tears will be reaped with joy. Be there.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:19 - ID#246224)
Donald - The crazies have it all over the place. No place to hide, I'm afraid. I suppose this is what it is like to live in a super speculative bubble ( or the end of the age ) . Wry, grinnie thingie.

FED Pumping Tanker seems to be trying to recapitalize the entire world financial system. My guess is they are just buying time for their friends. When the big boyz are in the best positions they can be in then things will be "let go", oh so much surprise as things fail ( NOT! ) .

Japanese and Big Banks trying to find currency to settle commitments. Can we spell L-T-C-M? Of course we can! Bonds are held as reserves, but currency is used to 'pay' others. They are facing a major domo vortex of cash sucking failed trades. Considering the built in 'leveraging' most banks do, when they sell their reserves they instantly become Japanese style bank ( "illiquid" ) .

Can you imagine what the bond market would look like if these things were being sold OTC. The FED is printing money but it will only buuy a little time. Leverage in the banks has created this monster. "infinite creation and destruction .." -AG.

1999, the year of judgement. Count on that. What is real and true VS all that pretends to be so. We are finding that wisdom is FAR more precious than gold today for its scarcity, its immutable character and untarnishable qualities.

1999, the first year of great tribulation. The reaping of all that has been sown. So much misery that I hang my head with sad tears. The harvest is ripe. The grapes of wrath fully fruited. A voice from heaven says 'reap' and it is done. The sweep of the scythe, the reaping hook.

Social In-Security? A god renamed for its fitting end. "We have tested and are compliant." R-E-S-I-D-U-A-L E-R-R-O-R-S a rot from within. They will never know until they throw the switch.

Just remember that 10% of the Federal systems ( 85,000+ ) were deemed "mission critical" whatever THAT is supposed to mean. That means that...


Dig it, folks. Same is true for businesses. They are all focusing on their perceived "mission critical" systems. All the other 'systems' are in the dumpster. They will fail drasticly. Turn out the lights, Alice. What happens when EVERY 'NON-MISSION CRITIAL SYSTEM' fails on them??? Got contigency plans? Answer: no one is willing to see this as their biggest unmet challenge of this walking dream-nightmare. NO.

50% of small and medium sized business have publicly stated that they WILL NOT TEST SOFTWARE FIXES before slamming the code into production. RIP. B-A-N-C-R-U-P-C-I-E-S. Every one.

By "small businesses" we mean greater than $100 Million but less than $500 million revenues - not yer mom and pop store folks.

Half will simply cease to exist. And their customers will also cease to exist. And their suppliers will cease to exist. Mega-tonnage implosion. A real true fact in the making right now.

Wasn't it Bank of England who recently has been telling its customers that Japan was in 'economic collapse'. That is 'DEATH SPIRAL'. That is what we were saying here a year ago. You read it here first. Kitco the meeting of great minds and greater prescience. The world is going to hell in a hand basket.


El Borak
(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:28 - ID#230155)
Erle - Good to be back.
Been spending too much time in C.S.Y2K, but I thought I'd drop back in to see if the golds have moved. How come it's a year later and we're still here? Gollum, get this thing off the ground!

We goldbugs are always good for a laugh, unfortunately we've been good for a laugh to the owners of AOL et al. ( sigh )

Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of Wile E. Peyote Root Beer, a favourite of old Southwest medicine men for generations.

Crystal Ball
(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:28 - ID#306416)
"Diggin' for gold." Cold as Ice - Foreigner
Gold is down 10 cents? XAU/Gold ratio approaches zero as mining stocks get murdered, and internet stocks with hot air for profits and assets head for the stratosphere. What the bloody hell is going on?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:34 - ID#339274)
Covered and long 16 5/8

Gusto Oro
(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:43 - ID#377235)
Millenium panics...
El Borak,

If memory serves me right, from my early Middle Ages university class either the year 700 or 800 AD was the one that was full of panic and end of the world doom with plagues and invasions etc. I'd have to look it up.

1000 AD probably had its panic, but when the world didn't quite end, the historians who then recorded it probably didn't think it was noteworthy.

On another note, none of my Canadian stocks seem to be trading--is it a Monday holiday there, anyone? --Al

(Mon Dec 28 1998 14:48 - ID#219363)
Our Hero
When we last left our hero companies were getting ready for Christmas, slashing bonuses and dumping employees like they were infested with plague, our hero was in the drink, CRB was desperate for new lows, and equities were soaring. Japan was sitting above 14000 but on it's way down, trying to reach the local low of 12750 or there'bouts. Our hero was also standing in the middle of an erupting trade war between Europe and the US/Nafta's, and between the Nafta's and Japan. Welp, it still ain't looking too good for our hero, still in the tank, falling, but not so much like a rock anymore. The CRB is still weak, the first shots of the trade war are still being fired, Japan is still reaching down for 13000, and equities are still soaring high. The Financial gods came through for retailers and delivered up a pretty good Christmas, but did wait long enough to give retailers a good fright before the final hours. Buyers were buying, but mostly from the bargain stores, they came out in force after Christmas to pick up stuff on the cheap for next year. Rich folks have slowed their purchases of expensive toys in many countries, and the east is still dug in deep for a continued recession that could last for years. Have you ever noticed how trends seem to always have a cycle to them, especially down trends ? First something is flying high, doing well, and everyone says it'll go on forever. Second, something happens and the trend changes, and everyone says it'll reverse. Third, the trend keeps on going and gains some converts, it destroys the super bulls of the old trend. Fourth, it keeps going and even the bears start to say it's going to reverse itself at some point. Fifth, it keeps going until the very last bull is gone, until nobody is paying attention to the trend anymore, until nobody talks about the instrument as a real financial possibility, until everyone "knows" it's dead. It takes years, then it finally reverses itself. Equities are still riding high on the bull, but that will someday change and they'll enter into a down trend, it may already be upon us. Gold and the precious are somewhere in the middle to the end of the cycle along side the CRB. Asian equities aren't even close to being finished with the cycle, we'll know they're close when Asia is no longer a thought in anyone's mind as an investment option. Having savings in cash and low debt hasn't been an investment option for years, it's going to turn around. The high dollar will likely continue riding the bull for sometime to come, and consumer confidence is due for a severe and swift trend change one of these days along side the savings rate. What will the future hold for our hero ? I think more of the same, and the CRB and oil will follow it down the toilet. Our hero will emerge to save the day when it's ancient nemesis inflation shows up on the scene. But for now, cash is here to battle inflation's evil twin, deflation. Their war will rage for some time as the Asian tsunami continues to crash across Europe and the states.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:00 - ID#252391)
Envy, I think you've got it
Pretty quiet on Kitco....may be we are getting closer to the end of the various trends you noted...closer is right but not there yet.??? Appears at this juncture that nobody wants to hold gold or oil service sector stocks.

SWC on increase in PD is rising = hit new alltime high at 38

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:00 - ID#190411)
On a brighter note,
I know how Aragorn III feels when he gets his little packets in the mail. I got a few Austrian 100 Corona coins, and the dealer substituted a couple of Hungarian 100 Corona for the Austrian. ( .9802 oz, .90 Fine ) I suppose that it doesn't matter, as they are a product of the Austro-Hungarian empire.
The premium over spot was 1.125%, so they are as low as it gets for old coins.
The condition of the 1908 Hungarian Coin is phenomenal. I fell badly that I touched the face. I'd guess that it has never seen the inside of a bag, as it is nearly flawless.
It has Emperor Franz-Joseph ( Ferencz Jozef ) on the obverse, and a nice coat of arms w/angels on the reverse. I have no use for caeser, kaiser, emperor, or president, but I recommend this coin to anyone that would like a bit of history at a tiny premium over spot.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:01 - ID#245136)
Gusto Oro
Good Day Gus: The Canadian markets are closed today because of Boxing day falling on a Sat'day this year.

Who Cares?
(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:01 - ID#242214)
The World Will Last Six More Months
Perhaps Nine.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:06 - ID#333127)
Who Cares
They say June 30th.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:09 - ID#266105)

The giant tortoise bearing the earth will sneeze at the
milliniem, throwing all into chaos particularly the evil
incarnate central bankers which shall be slew by the precious.


FCX instruments bearing 18% annually until due, do the math.
Provided Freeport maintains control over the caldera esophagus
they're mining in Indonesia.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:12 - ID#391172)
I 've been into this for about one full year and finnally have it all figured out.

To be brief; the change will come 1/4/99 for obvious reasons. Gold will stay about where it is till then, then take a bounce in January. Crystal ball gets cloudy after that.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:13 - ID#365216)
Y2K Drill for many in my home state of Virginia

Wouldn't it be interesting to survey those people without power
and transportation for days now if they have changed their opinion on the
potential threat of Y2K? This storm could be the best thing that ever
happened to them if they do change their minds.

That is all.

El Borak
(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:18 - ID#230155)
There have been a lot of EOTW panics throughout the ages, from the Second Letter of Paul to the Thessalonians to the Comet people in California last year. A good site which documents some of them from the the turn of the last millenium is http:\\

My point was that the images of all of the churches in Europe filled with quaking peasants in 999 is a figment of someone's imagination, and the argument that it really happened but we have no evidence seldom passes muster with historians. There really is very little documentation of apocalyptic expectations from the period, so any detailed accounts of pigrimages or mass repentances are most probably fairy stories.

These stories are some of the finest of urban legands, because they've gone hundreds of years, growing better and better with the telling.

Anybody have thoughts on Cusac? ( CUSIF ) . I've got some, but at the current price, I'm liable to back the truck up for more.

Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of KlepToad amphibian home security systems. Hop to it, get KlepToad!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:32 - ID#421269)

The trek to 250 continues.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:41 - ID#153110)
Part VII Supreme Court Rule 45; Nothing Is As It Seems in the Courts
As the Supreme Court stated in the Den Case in 1855, the judicial power of the United States can be exercised under the Executive, Legislative, or Judicial Departments of the government.

The United States Code is for the civilians of America the same thing as the Military Code of Justice is for The Armed Forces. The USC is the
Code that governs the Civilians. Examine now Rule 45.
Supreme Court Rules
Rule 45. Process; Mandates
1. All process of this Court issues in the name of the President of the
United States.
2. In a case on review from a state court, the mandate issues 25 days after entry of the judgment, unless the Court or a Justice shortens or extends the time, or unless the parties stipulate that it issue sooner. The filing of a petition for rehearing stays the mandate until disposition of the petition, unless the Court orders otherwise. If the petition is denied, the mandate issues forthwith.
3. In a case on review from any court of the United States, as defined by
28 U. S. C. 451, a formal mandate does not issue unless specially directed; instead, the Clerk of this Court will send the clerk of the lower court a copy of the opinion or order of this Court and a certified copy of the judgment. The certified copy of the judgment, prepared and signed by this Court's Clerk, will provide for costs if any are awarded. In all other respects, the provisions of paragraph 2 of this Rule apply.

This references "court of the United States" as defined at 28 U.S.C. 451. But 28 U.S.C. 451. references these courts as constituted by chapter 5 of this title. This Title being Title 28 USC. Congress converted here the Constitutional Courts [courts of the United States] created by the US Constitution exercising the full judicial power in the judicial department to courts exercising a Military power [US district courts] exercising judicial power in the Executive depeartment. If the USC is a code established under the Military powers of the United States then 28 USC sections 81-131 establishes Military Venues at 28 USC sections 81-131. Usually when this happens Congress changes the name of these Constitutional Courts to keep things clear.
For example the original Circuit Court of the United States was abolished by Congress and a court titled The United States Circuit Court of Appeals was created. Congress then established how through title 28 and 18 jurisdiction could be granted to this court/tribunal. The
Territorial court system under the US Constitution is also granted jurisdiction through the United States Codes. Notice how
every thing is being brought under the USC ( a.k.a. Code of Laws of the United States of America, an agency of the United States ) .

Now for the big one!
28 USC sec. 132 [[Creation]] and composition of district courts
( a ) There shall be in each judicial district a district court which shall
be a court of record known as the [[United States District Court]] for the district. [[Emphasis Mine]]

Here is exactly where Congress either changed the name of the original, civil, judicial department District Court of the United States or created a new court called the United States District Court, and by doing so abolished the District Courts of the United States. The term judicial districts in 28 USC sec. 132 ( a ) does not mean Judicial Districts of the United States it means United States Judicial Districts. In an emergency or war power statute Congress they can use any term that serves its purpose. Deception is cardinal in the art of war.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:45 - ID#365216)
Larry Edelson of SAFE MONEY REPORT predicts $180 gold in 1999
Gold & Oil Shares Review
December 1998

by Larry Edelson

In this month's Special Supplement, I gave you perfectly clear parameters of what I expect from precious metals: A possible
short-term rally, followed by a whopping deflationary crunch that will send gold and silver prices into a tailspin!

The deflation spreading across the globe is all consuming.
Prices of commodities, real estate, automobiles, and all sorts of
tangible assets are under extraordinary pressure. Gold and silver will be no exception. Industrial demand for these metals is already
beginning to sink. Investment demand is also slackening.
Besides deflation, it's likely that European central banks will resume gold sales next year. They recently declassified gold as a
reserve asset -- putting them one step closer to easily liquidating
the yellow metal to raise cash. And silver won't be able to shrug off the pressure from any gold sales.

In 1999, I expect gold to plummet as low as $180 ... and silver
to under $4. It won't be a pretty picture,. But it's time to recognize that, near term, much lower prices are in store.

This demands an entirely new strategy. It means setting targets
to protect recent gains and exiting your positions on the next gold rally ... while, at the same time, placing protective sell stops in
case gold fails prematurely. This way, you can take full advantage of any short-term rally, while still protecting yourself if gold suddenly falls out of bed.

To do this, simply follow the directions below:
Arizona Star ( AZS-VSE ) : Sell Stop-C$1.10; Rally Target-C$1.70
Bema Gold ( BGO-AMEX ) : Sell Stop-$3/4; Rally Target-$1 1/4
Cameco Corp ( CCJ-NYSE ) : Sell Stop-$16; Rally Target-$20,
Campbell Resources ( CCH-NYSE ) : Sell Stop-N/A; Rally Target-$3/4
Homestake Mining ( HM-NYSE ) : Sell Stop-$9 1/2; Rally Target-$12 1/2
North American Palladium ( PDLCF-Nasdaq ) : Sell Stop-$1/2; Rally Target-$1 1/4

Pacific Amber ( PCR-VSE ) : Sell Stop-C$0.10; Rally Target-C$0.35
Stillwater Mining ( SWC-AMEX ) : Sell Stop-$27; Rally Target-$39
Taseko Mining ( TKOCF-Nasdaq ) : Sell Stop-$1; Rally Target-$2 1/4
X-Cal Resources ( XCL-TSE ) : Sell Stop-C$0.20; Rally Target-C$0.50
How to enter protective stops and target orders simultaneously:
Let's assume you own 100 shares of Arizona Star, and that you have not yet entered any sell orders. You would call your broker and say: "I
want to sell 100 shares of Arizona Star at C$1.10 on a stop. And I
want to sell 100 shares of Arizona Star at C$1.70 or better. One order cancels the other."
* Note: Most brokers on the NASDAQ and OTC exchanges do not take stops. If your broker doesn't, then you will have to monitor these
shares. If they trade at my recommended stop price, sell your shares immediately.

As you exit these stocks, place the proceeds into Treasury bills or a T-bill only money fund. That way, you'll be in a liquid cash
position, perfectly safe from the deflation that's sweeping the globe.
Remember, cash is king in deflationary times. As precious metals
fall and mining shares get hit hard, your cash rises in value. You'll be able to scoop up incredible bargains in the months ahead!

Also, realize that once this washout is over, gold and silver
will do phenomenally well. I still expect gold to trade over $1,000 per ounce in two to three years. Right now, however, patience and
tight money management is required. With the strategy I've outlined
above, you'll be perfectly positioned to build your ammo and scoop up incredible deals down the road.

Data date: December 8, 1998

(Mon Dec 28 1998 15:46 - ID#339274)
Sold 16 3/4.look for a retest of 60 tomorrow

lefty kiwi
(Mon Dec 28 1998 16:12 - ID#32176)
New Utopia
Stop the world I want to get off ......
Just came across the following web site

I have e mailed them applying for the position of Minister of Finance I am recommending a currency fully backed by gold and silver .

Go Gold in 1999

(Mon Dec 28 1998 16:24 - ID#288186)
COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Dec. 28

Gold 811,339 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 75,900,187 - 301,662 troy ounces
Copper 92,858 + 0 short tons
I forget what the low was, earlier this year, in Comex Silver Totals...
Anyone remember? I'm thinking it was around 71 million? Just curious.
We've been seeing some drawdowns lately, albeit small ones. Maybe they'll
continue and we'll hit new lows in early '99!
See ya, Fox-man

(Mon Dec 28 1998 16:46 - ID#190411)
If you are out there, please e-mail me

(Mon Dec 28 1998 16:49 - ID#354133)
The games continue
Air Force Print News

WASHINGTON -- Allied aircrews struck a surface-to-air missile site in
northern Iraq Dec. 28 after Iraqi ground forces launched missiles
against the aircraft.

Iraqi SAMs attacked coalition aircraft conducting routine enforcement of
the northern no-fly zone at 1:30 p.m. Iraq time from a site north of the
town of Mosul.

A Department of Defense statement said, "The aircrews acted in
self-defense and responded with HARM missiles and precision-guided
munitions. There was no damage to coalition aircraft, and all aircrews
returned safely to base."

The AGM-88 HARM ( high-speed anti-radiation missile ) is an air-to-surface
tactical missile designed to seek and destroy enemy radar-equipped air
defense systems. They are carried by F-16C aircraft.

President Clinton said the missile launches were a direct attack against
allied policy for holding Iraq in check.

"The no-fly zones have been and will remain an important part of our
containment policy," Clinton said. "Because we effectively control the
skies over much of Iraq, Saddam [Hussein] has been unable to use air
power to repress his own people or to lash out again at his neighbors.

"Our pilots have the authority to protect themselves if they're
threatened or attacked. They took appropriate action today in
responding to Iraq's actions."

The president added that the fast U.S. response reinforced his gratitude
for soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines serving near Iraq.

"I am very proud of the work they do, the risks they take, the skill and
the professionalism with which they do it," he said. "They attacked
because they were attacked. And they did the appropriate thing. We
will continue to enforce the no-fly zones."

Despite early Iraqi claims of casualties, "damage to Iraqi forces is
currently under assessment," according to the DOD statement. "As
always, our pilots will act in self-defense if they are threatened."

The United States has about 20 aircraft, including F-15Cs, F-15E's and
F-16CJs; about 18 support aircraft, including EA-6B's, E-3 Sentry
airborne warning and control systems, tankers, helicopters and logistic
aircraft; and about 1,400 people in support of Northern Watch.

Turkey, England and the United States participate in this combined joint
task force.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 16:52 - ID#246224)
Gold to go to $5/oz.
True! Or maybe $50/oz. Well, maybe $500/oz? Down, down, down she goes. Where it stops, no body knows. There is SO MUCH gold to be freely thrown out of Central Banks that they have just come up with a new strategy .. free gold. You come in with a truck and they will load you up. Small charge for handling. Paper and electrons are MUCH MORE VALUABLE than gold is. Don't you see it, friend. It's very, very true. Gold is just a metal. Honest. No, really, believe me on this one. In fact CB's are lining up at the counter to sell their gold into the market before it becomes WORTHLESS. I've heard of scuffles breaking out between these bankers at the 'sell' window, one trying to get into line just a bit ahead of the others.

Gold is useless except for decorative purposes. That's it. The CB's are just trying to get something out of it while they can. They don't want anyone to know that it is worthless, at least for now, so that they can get a few more VERY SCARSE AND VALUABLE US DOLLARS for it as they secretly dump their thousands of tonnes on the market. They have even hired drug kingpins and international arms trafficers to act as their agents in order to obscure their true intentions.


The only thing I can say is, if you believe that crap then you really are their kind of munchkin.


He held up a pepper shaker before his pupil and said, "This is a cabbage. Nothing more than a cabbage." His charge listened and repeated, 'A cabbage.'. Lesson learned. What was the lesson? That the one who defines the conversation defines the perception of reality that the other sees.

Unless you are very gullible why would you trust the words of those vested interests in regards to ANYTHING pertaining to gold. Gold sellers, gold buyers, gold producers, gold controllers, gold minters, gold holders. Particularly, why would you trust the word of those who have the most to gain or lose by their own words?

If a CB or Treasury or trading firm or bank representative says that gold is 'obsolete', then what should you do to discern the intentions of said interest? Watch their actions. But you can't, can you? Its all done in secret, isn't it? So how can you find out what the real scoup is?

I believe it is fairly simple. Their intentions are opposite of their words. Truth is what is real and to the facts. The more they coordinate their lies the stronger I feel that the lie is systemic. When they publicly ( AG 24 July 1998 ) declare that they are controlling the price of gold .. it is because they are about to lose control of it all together.

No one talks about impertinences. Things that do not matter are retired to the realm of photo albums and dusty shelves. So what was AG's message on 24th July 1998 about ???

"This is a cabbage. Nothing but a cabbage."

"gold is being controlled, but it really is nothing at all .. of no value at all, no really believe me on this one.."

Why control what does not matter?

Why make a point of it in testimony which has nothing to do with it?


"A cabbage." That's why.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:11 - ID#413307)
@ All re the Larry Edelson report predicting $180 gold.
I think you will find the BIS would be poorly disposed to
accept $180 gold. Gold is carried on their books at $208, and
they have 18000 tons of the stuff, plus a pile of paper called
US treasuries. If gold is manipulated down below 280 again,
they will sell treasuries and use the money to support the POG.
The USD is hit two ways, the POG goes back up and the bond market
is sold down. I wonder when the BIS will tire of the manipulations
of its member banks, particularly the Fed.

When you sell out your gold shares at the top of that
so-called last rally, it will be Mr. Edelson et al who will be
buying them! I get so tired of spin.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:12 - ID#43460)
General, not to worry
Deflation was a problem when we were capitalists. The West, including US, Canada, UK, et cetera are all socialist countries. All that will need to be done is to cut the marginal tax rate by a few percentage points, increase the tariffs, reduce the net interest rates and increase the government handouts a few percentage points. That should trim up the economy nicely and prevent it from stalling dont you think?

But then to illustrate a point on the other hand, I recall an instance when I was flying a trainer plane and kept it flying on the verge of a stall, cutting back on the airspeed until it was pointed straight down. Scared my passenger near to death but I had full control. ( Where have you heard that before? )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:14 - ID#30345)
Two old prefixes to be heard shortly...quadrillion and quintillion
Not from a fairy tale just from history....M3 ............zoom....

And the printing presses continued to turn out paper marks. On November 16, 1923, 93
quadrillion paper marks were in circulation; by the end of the year the total had risen to
496 quadrillions and by July 1924 to more than 1.2 quintillions. At the same time the
amount of Rentenmarks outstanding - one Rentenmark equalled one trillion paper marks -
rose from 500 million to 1.8 billion. As one German expert put it: the creation of the
Rentenmark was accompanied not by a drastic deflation but "by the most colossal inflation
ever recorded in the history of the world."

Aragorn III
(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:19 - ID#212323)
Never had I figured you as agent provocateur...we expect a full report when you crack the case wide open.

Allen--don't walk in those shoes...even for half a post it is a tough act to maintain! But theraputic, perhaps? The extreme view reveals the lunatic fringe...always good for perspective.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:22 - ID#220325)
Toleran1, Silverbaron- The largest online out of print book source is

Called the Advanced Book Exchange. The site is excellent.

Spud Master
(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:23 - ID#273112)
A curious question re. AMZN, EBAY, AOL, etc...
These Internet stocks, now valued at enormous figures, represent an incredible amount of money ...

... where did it come from?

1 ) Did people sell other stocks?
2 ) Did people use cash savings?
3 ) Did people sell bonds?
4 ) Is this margin on top of margin virtual cash?

If #4, no wonder this stock market mania fraud *HAS* to be continued
forever - the stock market must be creating 10x, 100x, 1000x more "cash" from margins than the Fed ever directly created!

Spud, pondering from North Texas

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:32 - ID#421269)
Forget C B's
Forget about Central Banks and forget about the BIS, inflation in commodities will be the straw that finally breaks the camels back.

Cars, boats, houses, tools, air conditioners, are already in an inflationary mode, not to mention salaries. Commodity prices are the only thing suppressing inflation now. When they take off, gold will have left the "pad" a week before. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening soon.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:33 - ID#421269)
Forget C B's
Forget about Central Banks and forget about the BIS, inflation in commodities will be the straw that finally breaks the camels back.

Cars, boats, houses, tools, air conditioners, are already in an inflationary mode, not to mention salaries. Commodity prices are the only thing suppressing inflation now. When they take off, gold will have left the "pad" a week before. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening soon.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:49 - ID#43460)
Inflation or deflation?
I have no relationship with the NCPA and have no way of ascertaining this essays veracity.



While the U.S. Treasury is borrowing less, a number of
governmental entities are borrowing more, according to the Bond
Market Association.

Debt issuance by agencies totaled $4.7 trillion in the first nine
months of this year -- up 11.2 percent from a year earlier. By
contrast, Treasury borrowing fell 12.1 percent to $1.4 trillion
-- from $1.6 trillion in the year-earlier nine months.

The agencies borrow funds which they loan out for home mortgages
and to assist farmers.

o The Federal Home Loan Bank System -- the biggest debt
issuer in the nine months -- borrowed 15.7 percent more
during that period this year, or $1.8 trillion.

o Freddie Mac increased its debt issuance 34 percent -- to
$1.7 trillion.

o Fannie Mae issued $644.5 billion, up marginally from a
year earlier.

o Farm Credit Systems' debt issuance increased 19.8 percent
to $222.7 billion.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires, "Borrowing By U.S. Entities
Increases 11.2 Percent," Wall Street Journal, December 28, 1998.

For more on National Debt

(Mon Dec 28 1998 17:57 - ID#43460)
One more bookseller

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:01 - ID#30345)
Japanese (at least one) firms not ready to sell US bonds

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:07 - ID#30345)
Currecy report stuff.......
The only thing resembling news of interest to the forex market is a statement

yesterday by Sakakibara, who said the launch of the euro will eventually end

the dollar's role as the only main international currency. He said Japan holds

the key to a possible change in the balance of power among currencies after

the euro's launch. This may be a threat that Japan will diversify reserves out of

the dollar and into the euro. Right now it is estimated that 90% of Japan's

$213 billion in reserves is dollar-denominated. Japan's diversification has

been a bogeyman for many years. Maybe it's for real this time. Sakakibara

also said the framework is in place for an upturn in the domestic economy

during the second quarter, March-September.


Outlook: The dollar seems to have more life left in it at year-end than most

observers thought. The ruling idea seems to be that it had been oversold

ahead of the euro launch. Against the yen, the dollar's weakness is

inexplicable given all the dreadful news out of Japan. The next benchmark

bond auction is January 7 and everybody is wondering what promised "steps"

the government will take if others join the Trust Fund Bureau in staying away. It

has a number of other public funds it can send into the fray, and no doubt it

has invited the Chinese and Malaysians to the party, too. Ex-Fed Gov Volcker

said in November he sees the foreign exchange market more volatile after the

euro launch rather than more stable, and oddly the yen's bid for reserve status

concurrent with the euro's may prove him right. After the Denver G7 in May

1996, the Japanese prime minister threatened to sell US Treasuries and

caused quite a flap the finance minister had to delay his trip from the US to

China and have his plane set down in the Pacific to explain that the PM didn't

mean it. Afterwards the prime minister apologized for the intemperate remark,

which was a big deal at the time. It would be a big deal this time, too.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:08 - ID#30345)
Not that it matters, as I am Once again blathering to my self.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:12 - ID#413307)
@ longj: I'm listening.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:15 - ID#401460)
Monday December 28

Brazil currency weakens amid dollar outflows

U.S. Treasuries fade from highs but remain strong

*US Treasuries slip from highs but still posting solid gains. *Bond had
been up a pt. Rebound from last week's losses cited. *Thin volume also
said to be exaggerating price movement. *No real news, economic data to
compel players into action. *Positive tone seen continuing through rest of
shortened week.^tyx&d=b

Utilities -2.53^UTY&d=5d^UTY&d=1ys

Interest Rates Rise to 3-Month High

More Jobs Lost.
Auto Parts Maker To Cut 1,000 Jobs


(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:16 - ID#433143)
Wh00p - POGas Per Gal.
In Se. Texas - .71/gal

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:23 - ID#9337)
"Like watching grass grow"
Meanwhile, the end of the year lull has plagued the rest of the precious metals complex, which saw very little movement today. "It's a waste of time to be here this week," said a trader. "Watching the markets today is absolutely like watching grass grow."

Feb gold settled up 30c at $287.80 per ounce and is expected to continue to trade in its $285-288 range this week, traders said. "There are no fundamentals here," said a trader. The Aussie dollar is weaker but the yen is stronger against the US dollar, "so everything's nullified."

Most said that they expect the markets to continue to be extremely thin
this week and that the few traders still present are doing long-term planning.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:39 - ID#50148)
Now what does this mean? (:-)

Yes, this is a real headline from CBS MarketWatch.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:40 - ID#30345)
FX news...
Dollar weakens slightly in europe.....
Chinese welcome EURO....

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:44 - ID#316193)
L. A. TIMES -- "..the Internet's so-called gold rush days are probably over."

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:46 - ID#190411)
Kitco backup site thingy goes away,
site gets faster.
I found a place that will sell Sovereign equivalent coin for 0.75% over spot.
So far, 5 Peso Colombian @ 68.00 today only, tomorrow less, I am sure.
Looking into Peru 1 Libre, RSA 2 rand, and sov's will be at least 3.75% more.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 18:54 - ID#266105)
in the beginning there was drive-in churches


(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:02 - ID#249232)
Gold and Silver are about to become the best investment for those wishing to increase their capital
Yes, I'll repeat. We are about to enter a severe recession in Q1-2 of 1999 and gold will take off rising slowly and accelerating as we progress in time. No one in this forum believes it's possible for gold to rise in deflation. I say, it will explode upward as the coming recession deepens. Folks, we are not looking at a recession. We are looking at a massive DEPRESSION. If this was a recession, I would have never recommended gold investment.Instead I would have recommended blue chip stocks as interest rates dipped. Circumstances today are very different than those in the past 50 years. There is no more liquidity in the far East, Russia,Africa, South America and perhaps Canada. We are in an accelerating deflationary trend which can't be worked off by any means. Yes , I konw, the internet stocks and technology stocks are rising. These are all short term events. Strong counter cyclical forces are exerting their influence and accelerating the deflation. Business is using historical cost accounting which inflate profits during inflationary times. In deflation the reverse is true.In 1999, profit margins will be squeezed and because government overhead is so high, it will be unable to cut costs equal to the fall in income. We therefore will repeat the First two years of the Great Depression. After that, some major US banks will fail, thus prolonging the depression. Interest rates will come down along with all other prices.Just as in 1932, much depends on the ability and character of the president elected in the year 2000. But you might argue, in a depression the government deficit will mushroom ( increase ) raising interest rates. Roosevelt tried that, but found that the higher the deficit became, the faster the much larger private debt declined, until in the thirties bankers were paying 1/4 to buy 90 day treasuries in order to have some place to hold money. Nobody's credit was very good. Everyone wanted safe capital.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:10 - ID#350288)

I live in beaumont and can get it for 70.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:11 - ID#218249)
Oh come on JP, don't sugarcoat it, tell it like it is!!
Can't we just print MORE money?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:11 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.17. The 233 day moving average is 29.45

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:15 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .217. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:19 - ID#30345)
More FX news

I like the last paragraph... as the foreign investors scramble out of US equities the dollar will be hurt.... there may be some market profit taking and dollar selling in the first quarter of 99....reinvesting in Euro denominated bonds IF the fed is forced into cut rates to stimulate the US finance markets....

"There's no reason for further U.S. rate cuts at the
moment'' and that's helping the dollar, said Didier Pruvost, who
oversees about $2.2 billion at Oddo et Cie. in Paris.

Unchanged rates keep yields on dollar deposits and bonds
higher than those in Germany, boosting the appeal of the U.S.
currency. The Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee, which
next meets in February, left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75
percent when it convened Dec. 22.

The dollar gave up gains against the mark and lost ground
versus the yen as stocks ended the day mixed. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 8.76 to 9226.75, though that was down
from a gain of as much as 44 points in earlier trading.

The dollar benefits when U.S. stocks rise because
international investors need the U.S. currency to pay for equity
purchases. When those investors sell U.S. stocks, they often
convert the dollar proceeds to other currencies, which hurts the

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:24 - ID#413307)
@ JP: Silver tanked during the Great Depression. It
acts as an industrial metal. Unless CBs can re-inflate us out of
this mess, gold and silver will both slide, IMHO. If we slip
into a depression, gold will be $200 per oz in 1 to two years,
and silver will be 3c.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:26 - ID#249232)
Kapex---We can't print more money because we have a credit system and a huge bond market in the US
If the huge bond market were to sense any money printing, interest rates will soar and the following collapse will be that much bigger. The bond market runs the equity market with total capitalization 25 larger than all the stock markets world wide combined. Hyper inflation is possible in other countries but not in the US or Japan because of the huge long term bond markets. Obviously, countries where people are getting paid in cash and no long term bond market exist are prime candidates for hyper inflation. Primary example are Russia, Indonesia and Brazil.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:27 - ID#386245)
Grand Opening -- wink museum
It is with the greatest of pleasure that I announce the Grand Opening of the first Australian wink museum. It will be named the 'EB Go Golf Wink Museum' in honour of its largest ( and only ) benefactor. The incomparable EB, of Kitco fame, has cemented Antipodean/Merkan relations with the donation of a splendid wink and the unexpected donation of an Silver American Eagle. Both shall take pride of place in the fastest growing museum in the southern hemisphere.

Ladies and gentlemen, raise your glasses: To EB. Gulp.

Other donations gladly accepted.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:34 - ID#249232)
Rhody--It's possible for silver to collapse during a severe deflationary bout but I think the down
side risk is small. Why ? Silver has been sold down from $50/az in 1982 to today's price of $4.85. That represent a 90% decline and any additional decline will bring out new buyers. Don't forget that new applications are found each years for silver in electronics, madicine, pollution improvement, etc. I think that gold will take off first and silver will follow within a short period of time.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:39 - ID#18355)
post time 15:45 larry edelson's trading advice
i am leary of larry's advice. this guy thinks he can call a bottom. now is the time to buy and hold, not trade in and out. get a seat and wait for the plane to takeoff, don't get off and run to the concession stand in order to cram one more hot dog down.

flight 1999 is leaving the gate area, and you've just run down the concourse in time to see it taxi away...burp!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:39 - ID#348169)
@Cage Rattler @11:41 and @ Mike Sheller
Hey Cage! ;- ) I must have a lot of time on my hands today. I actually read, word for word, your first two references. Mike Sheller better check out the second one:
and report back to us! Seems like something extremely earth shattering ( astrologically speaking ) is bearing down on us. Only 13 more years to prepare!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:53 - ID#219363)
AT&T Says Job Cut Plan Comes Early
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- AT&T Corp. expects to reach its goal of trimming 18,000 jobs a full year ahead of schedule. When it announced the cutbacks in January of this year, AT&T said it expected to take two years to eliminate the 18,000 jobs. But due to the unexpectedly high number of managers accepting AT&T's early retirement package, the company now foresees meeting the goal by the end of this year.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:55 - ID#219363)
Auto Parts Maker To Cut 1,000 Jobs
More ants getting kicked out of the ant hill.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:55 - ID#413307)
@ JP: That 3cent per oz for silver is application of
the present 60:1 ratio for gold to silver and a potential decline
of gold to $200 in a severe deflation. This is a true depression
scenario. It is not one I endorse, just fear. The present world
financial crisis is the product of American mismanagement of the
world reserve currency. Too much has been issued and its value
is based on the word of politicians. It's value is maintained
by real interest rates that have been held artificially high for
too long by the Federal Reserve Board. The affect of these
high real interest rates has been to suck liquidity out of
foreign economies ( a so-called 'flight to quality' ) causing
currency collapse and deflation. This is the irony. The
high real interest rates are designed to prop up an overvalued
USD, but the price is a world deflation. Doing this was exactly
what Lord Keynes feared most at Bretton Woods, and which the United
States violated when it went off the gold standard, and allowed
the USD to float against other currencies. We are now at a
crisis. Either the USD declines, or it will drag the world down
into a depression. The question is will the United States give
up the status of the USD in the world to save the world.
I have my doubts.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 19:58 - ID#218249)
JP; Isn't the fed ptinting it by buying us market instruments in the open
market? BTW, I was only kidding about them printing more money. The Debt saturation level is upon us. The fed is trying desperately to keep pumpimg money into the system to keep it going as long as they can. What really needed to happen is for some of the massive debt to be reduced on all levels, Govt, personal, corporate. When a slowdown begins the ability of people to borrow and spend dissapears because they are losing their jobs. This causes the next company to lay off and so on and so on. The DIFFERENCE this time is the fact that everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs. Yes! Just look at household liquidity, the cash on hand minus liabilities. It's negative. The govt debt is about 6 TRILLION $$$$. Look at the growth of margin debt. And where is the money that is out there but going into the stock market. Sound familliar! ( sp )
Remember the saying, It's always darkest before the dawn, well it works the other way too!!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:09 - ID#249232)
Rhody---I think the US dollar will decline as deflation intensifies
I agree that the US dollar should not have been allowed to become a reserve currency. Only a strong dollar backed by gold will increase the US influence world wide. I also think that as the dollar declines against gold backed currencies, it's purchasing domestically ( in US ) will increase substantially. I think that silver should constitute no more than 6% of investors portfolio's. It's very possible that if the US dollar is backed again by gold, silver coins may be place in circulation like it used to be up to 1964.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:11 - ID#30345)
JP - Don't think that the size of the market can stop them, from needing to refinance or monetize debt. The only thing that stops them is that of position. When the holders of existing bonds want to be rid of them, they will sell. If the bond holders want out bad enough, they will take a loss. If the Japanese need the capital they will raise it, especially if they think that they will get less for the bonds later ( 200 billion in UST will ease a good deal of their pain ) .

On top of that,the last thing these FED fellas want is a bunch of non-performing loans and falling asset prices to boot, unless they plan on aquiring assets only to start the inflation wagon after they get loaded up on cheap assets. If the FED has a shortage of buyers yields will rise, and the FED may even monetize some of the bond stuff by printing more money. There will be currency skirmishes next year. With the Chinese, Japanese, and the EUROese hinting at thier aims to weaken the dollar. The Euro may not be that strong of a currency but it might well be stronger than the dollar as currency reserves are diversified. Hell, I don't even think they have to print it, they can do it with a keyboard these days......

When those dollars come home there will be enormous pressure on the feds not to raise rates and refinance, bcause this will put pressure on the equity markets and cause further damage to the dollar. If they cannot popularly raise rates, then they must DO something to meet the maturing debt. All that is needed here is a lack of demand for TBills and... can you spell quadrillion?

Rhody - I can hardly wait for that price in silver. If it goes to even to $2 I'll buy so much of it...I'll make a bath tub out of it just to take that bath in that silver. Let's see $25k for a bath tub, hee-hee.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:15 - ID#249232)
Rhody--I meant to write
placed in circulation.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:16 - ID#18355)
on the "gold bottom"
i do not rule out a spike downdraft to shake out all the weak longs after this tiring december. i expect maximum pain. the larry edelson's will appear correct and will think smug thoughts. i for one will not give up my seat because i am what you may call "strong hands".

remember, its always darkest before its pitch black. and the bottom is usually 10% below your worst case scenario. are we there? wait and see.

patience is a virtue.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:32 - ID#350194)
@EZ Believer @ Date: Mon Dec 28 1998 14:13 and @ Spud Master @17:23 and @El Borak @ 15:18
EZ - EZ! Sorry that in an earlier post I gave the 'giving up the faith impression'. Not so. Just reporting that 1998 drew a big blank ( tell us something we don't already know, moonman ) . Still bullish! ( Eternal Optimist I. )
Spud. The money is not all there! Huh? Just because a few FOOLS paid the top end does not mean that all the shares are worth that much. HUH? Well, let's sit down and ponder for a few secs. Does anyone seriously believe that everyone of those shares could be sold within the next week, month, or year, for their closing price of today or last Friday? HUH? Think about it. When the selling starts, soon to follow will be the MILLIONS of stories of: " I COULD have sold that stock for $400/share..., "I might have been a multi-millionaire..., "...if only I had not waited that extra week..., etc., Etc., ETC.
El Borak - I don't quite get it. You know that modern manias and panics have happened because of the amazing gullibilty of many individuals, so are you seriously doubting that hysterias did not happen in the distant past just because those less advanced civilizations did not leave volumes of printed material lying about? ( Might have had something to do with the lack of printing presses in those bygone days. ) ;- )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:39 - ID#350194)
Rhody - I sure would like to have some of that stuff you must be drinking tonight as because at least twice you have said $.03 Silver when you meant to say $3.00 Silver. Pass the wine!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:40 - ID#45173)
I have never doubted that gold will rise in value in the next depression. It will certainly appreciate in dollar value. As a debtor and holder of the world's reserve currency, the US is in a similar position as England in the 1930s. The difference is that as a Brit you could buy dollars to store your wealth, and that worked well as dollar cash was king. But what currency can you say that about today? There is no precident for a simultaneous debt and currency collapse in a world of fiat currency.

An optimist believes in the infinate ability of central banks to pump liquidity into the economy, neglecting the fact that debt is the vehicle for the transmission of liquidity. This is ineffective in an environment of general insolvency. On the other hand, one marvels at the feat the Japanese have achieved, keeping a collapsed economy going for over ten years by ignoring insolvency, resheduling debt and issuing new debt at lower rates. But now they're out of rate cuts. A friend who's CEO for a US sports clothing company who spends 50% of his life in Asia sat across from me at dinner the other night, fresh back from a trip to Japan, an unusually bright optimistic man, wide-eyed, telling me, "They're doomed!"

A similar but more drastic fate awaits the US. No personal savings. Much in the stock market. Real savings in dollars, due to decline sharply. I suppose that if my income was shrinking faster than the interest on my debt was shrinking, with no end but default in site, I'd be inclined to find some way to make my debt go away. If I were a government and had the luxury, inflation seems like a logical method.

What happens when every government in the world tries the same monetary trick at the same time?


(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:45 - ID#30345)
@rhody you better check your math that should be 3$ silver....
budda-bing. and cha-ching. Oh yeah my bath tub is now gonna be a $48k one because I don't want to melt those pretty bricks..Lets see 240 bricks at $200 a brick....gonna have a JM's pick and hammer pattern all over my butt...HEEya....or is that yeeya? yeeHa...Down the deflationary drain....with a giant sucking sound... waiting for the sound of printing presses.......

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:51 - ID#348293)
Tax war...
European Tax War

Could Spark a Major Depression...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:52 - ID#350194)
And I thought I was slow at posting! ;- )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 20:59 - ID#255226)
Remember what I said about Buffetology on the SI. They are a stupid
herd being led into financial ruin buy a stubborn belief that
stocks will lead them to financial sucess. The real point made
by Kitco people who believe that value is real x cost = actual

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:08 - ID#30345)
$3 silver got me all messed up thinking about that bath tub ( ;* ) ) all right I'll go get something serious to contribute....

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:10 - ID#254130)
China gone euro...
China made trading in the euro official. Officials authorized the
European common currency's use in trade and financial dealings
starting Jan. 1. The announcement from the central People's Bank
of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also
authorized the opening of euro accounts. The move came as a top
state bank sharply cut interest rates for deposits of British
pounds and Hong Kong dollars and unified rates for four European
currencies linked to the new euro.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:12 - ID#20359)
snowbird, gagnrad, Namaste' gulps and a puffs all around...
thanks for the book links...

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:17 - ID#320202)
I would take anything that Mr. Martin Armstrong writes about with a big grain of salt, " europe should look to the states and the uk for advise "???? what a pile of s#%&


(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:17 - ID#350194)
I wouldn't mind a bathub made of Silver either. All right Go. Butt don't be takin' no 'long' baths before returnin' hear?!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:24 - ID#401460)
HK & Japan ?

Are they closed tonight?

Bought some more BEARX today.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:32 - ID#50148)
Now I know that we must be, 'near the end'.... :- ) )

Imagine that! An Internet 'IPO' for virtual religion... Who wudda thunk it?

Internet stocks seemed to hiccup near the close today. Hmmmm.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:39 - ID#219363)
World Economy
I think we get too wrapped up in the lingo. The planet is filled with all these little people running around on it, economic activity is the act of all those people doing service and creating products for one another for the benefit of all. When economic activity slows down, that activity is slowing down, fewer people are buying services and products, and fewer people end up making them. Right now we're slowing down, I think that's a given, a fact, very obvious in Asia. At the same time that the buyers are slowing down their buying, the sellers haven't yet cut back on production. It's not a choice a company can make on it's own, it's industry wide. You can't just convince a grape grower to slow his production of grapes to help the grape market, it doesn't work that way, some grape growers are going to have to go out of business leaving the more efficient grape growers in the remaining market. But before that happens, prices will fall as people fight over the market that's there. Right now we've just got too many grapes for the number of humans who want them. Production may be high, but demand is definitely falling off. Demand for all commodities are off as part of the world slows down, as their demand slows to a trickle. The market for goods is simply going away. It's like winter has suddenly come to the bat cave, and the bats just aren't eating as much as they were, and some day down the road they aren't going to be flying around as much either. Now for America, we're still in high gear, pumping out "stuff" faster than we know what to do with it, activity is still high, but overseas markets are drying up at a quick pace. Production in the states is simply too high to support itself, the market just isn't there, and some industries are starting to feel the pain. Industry is starting to complain about "cheap imports", people are complaining about strong dollars, industries fight for their fair share of an ever decreasing world market for goods and services, it's just happening. Who cares why it's happening, why did investors flee Asia ? Why does water fall from the sky ? Who cares, it just IS. The forces of chaos and flux are beating back the forces of vision and cohesion, it just happens sometimes. People are going to do everything they can to tinker with the levers they have at their finger tips, but that's all it is, tinkering. In the end, the activity that the world enjoyed will have to come back, all the little ants are going to have to work together for their mutual benefit, but that could come after a period of fighting, consolidation, and general mayhem. Will the wave spread ? I watch it daily, and it seems to be increasing, but who can say when the trend might reverse itself. When people feel optimism and expanding possibilities they take risks for gain, they put it all out on the line, but when they feel pessimism and decreasing possibilities they pull back, save, and won't take risks, they cover their ass. I think the reason we have trends is that humans really do act as a herd, the more connected they are with communication and information, the more herd like they become. I'm sensing increasing pessimism in the herd, and I think it's going to lead to decreased activity. That's all it takes for the world to slow down is for people to focus on the bad news and ignore the good news. That's what the bear is all about, and I think he's coming out of hibernation after a long period of human activity, investment, and change. He's here to kill the weak and make furtile soil for the strong to grow during the next expansion. I don't know why it happens, but the system seems to purge itself of inefficiencies in activity, resource allocation, lending, etc. I guess sometimes the world just has to cleanse itself with fire before it can move on. Sometimes the ant hill just gets too big for it's own good. The high level of faith we've seen on the part of investors is due for a little reality check. The long summer has been nice, but I'm starting to feel a cool breeze from the east, time to save up for the coming winter. Who can say what will happen. The trend is definitely there, however, you only have to listen to the news. Economists aren't talking about all the possibilities and bright sunshines out there, they're worried, and they're talking about defensive strategies, reactions to events, this is not bullish. I'm probably wrong.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:41 - ID#50148)
Internet stocks....
Upon checking, the Internet stocks seemed to have closed somewhat better... Just think, what a concept! Buy an internet stock in the morning, sell before the close with a several hundred percent profit, repeat this process for two weeks and you'll be on your way to fortune... :- ) )

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:43 - ID#413109)
Has anyone noticed a change in their policy?
Used to be able to get future prices, now they seem
to be trying to sell their products..... Looks like
they've lost me.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:47 - ID#50148)
And the virus spreads... Schwab is now considered an 'Internet' stock.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:50 - ID#50148)
It's amazing to see the reporting on these stocks. 'As if', it were a normal thing.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:52 - ID#50148)
Try this Java site.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 21:58 - ID#411259)
..... OK ..... OK ..... OK .....

He be EB and we be mates.

'Twas not a fib told by the effervescent EB last week when he claimed to have beat me to the bottom in the POG. We spoke on the phone towards the end of August and he insisted the gold would make new lows. I think there was much talk about $250 gold hereabouts in those dark days, but EB was not calling for such a slide - at least not yet. I told him that the 278 bottom would hold steady enough and that we would watch this new gold market together, yes?

EB was right. So was I. Don't you just love these win/win scenarios?

After Russia defaulted on a myriad of Western loans, and CNN was broadcasting the run on Russian banks 24 hours a day, the POG slipped to 272 spot - fully $6 bellow my cement floor of 278. Gold closed the next day at $277 and has been above there ever since. So EB was correct in his call of a new low in gold. I can also claim the same, as the dip was only a day long, and then brought about by a short term panic that fizzled out imediately. I told folks that producers would buy back their forward sales for a modest but short lived rally. When one looks at a chart-o-gold, one can safely discount the $272 intra-day low hit August 28. When I speak of holding the lows these days, I am still eyeing 278, although 274 could be hit before shorts start to cover in earnest.

I think our sharkish gold has shed its outer rows of rotting and dull teeth and rows of freshly serrated razors are ready to take their place. The stomping of gold has gone on for long enough and all involved could stand to see some higher prices.

If the Euro = good, than the dollar should fall and gold should rise. If the Euro = bad, impotent, untrustworthy, virginal, and entirely too tender, innocent, and untested, than it is certain that a flight to quality thingy should finally happen. Although Europeans have expressed a decided preference for US currency and notes, gold will certainly play a role.

Gold will hold its lows and rise steadily in the first quarter of 1999. Increasing volatility will be the watchword in Q2 of 1999. By the third quarter we should know whether the world is taking the whole Y2K thing seriously enough to insure that momentum buying continues. I am bettin" this will be so. It makes sense and it puts gold in it most familiar and traditional muse.

Silver gonna' go up also, although I do not think it will lead the way. Following gold's lead seems a better role for silver this year. Forget the fundamentals in silver. If the COMEX numbers have done nothing to support prices so far, there is much more silver in the world - aboveground and refined - than we are being told. No. silver will rise because of fear and greed, just like gold.

PGMs to the moon. Palladium to new highs very soon. A strong short covering rally should begin this week in platinum, good for 30 or 40 bucks over the nest month or so. Platinum could be stuck bellow 450 this year if impressions of a slowdown include worries of massive drops in car sales.

The numbers on platinum jewelry are in. Those that follow platinum will recall a discussion last summer of the true nature of the drop-off in platinum demand by Japan. Figures were bandied about but nobody had any hard numbers. JM reported the increased demand for China and the US have more than offset a drop in sales of Japanese platinum jewelry. While Japanese demand DID fall, worldwide demand for platinum jewelry rose by 30,000 ounces to about 2  million ounces per year. As long as they are building cars, and as long as the world does not go broke, platinum will rise far indeedy.


PS to farfel -

Regarding your questions of me this last week: I do not agree with your initial premise, so the rest that follows in a bit of a non sequitur, no? You tend to view the market of gold in relation to the rest of the world. I view the gold market in relation to the.. well the gold market.

I do find it interesting that, as I have changed my spots from an "ideological gold short" to a cautious bull, you and I are still on opposite sides of market sentiment. I told folks at the beginning of this year that I would turn bullish in early 1999. Actually, the words you found "compelling" last week were nothing more than a succinct version of what I have been saying about gold this whole year. Nothing new there at all. I may not be flashy, but I am consistent, yes?

As for the rest, I don't understand your premise. Greenspan and Rubin do not a world make, and the US does NOT control the gold market. Now that gold appears to be moving back to a more traditional role, I find it sad that you have left her yellow shores for other battlefields unknown. Come back to gold, mon! She has proven to be a duplicitous whore these last few years, but I think the orneriness is almost exorcised. When next we look, a born again virgin she, pure and wholesome, with a quick and refined sense of humor, tender loving hands, and corn silk hair. Behold, she is bold at the gate, but not too quick to affect stamina. Look for a lasting rise and a nice cigarette after.

OK yep

(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:01 - ID#251181)
You can't believe all you read
El Borak is stating what I have said here before: There was no millennium panic at the turning of the last millennium. Charles Mackay got it wrong.
I have read other books since Extrapops that confirm no panic and that also trace Mackay's faulty references to expose his lack of authenticity on this point. Several reasons: most citizens of Europe and Central Asia counted the years, if they did at all, by reference to the reigning Monarch. Hence "Ethelred 7" or "The third year of Stephen the Pious." There was no universal date measurement.
The Great week of the Bible was not interpreted to imply an armageddon in the year 1000. There was no panic, most of the citizens were not aware of the turn of millennium. {Like, I'm sure very few of the Billions of Chinese and Indian peasants are aware of our modern hand-wringing at the thought of the turn of the millennium}

There was a millenium crisis in London in 1558 when the Spanish Armada was said to be in the English Channel set to invade. This had been predicted by seers and prophets who managed to twist the concept of The Great Week to fit into the date 1558, the date of armageddon. Looks like the got it wrong, eh? WOnder if the latest EOTWAWKI crowd really are gonna get it right this time. {I bet a wink they're wrong}

But millennium at 1000? Uh. Uh.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:13 - ID#413109)
My guess was that PMs would go down a day or so but end the week
on the upside. Now I've checked several charts and believe, IMHO,
that we may just break out TODAY!

Ain't predicting fun....?

BTW many of the cats and dogs also look ready for a move.
This is usually the beginning of the end of a bull market.

Tantalus Rex
(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:23 - ID#295111)
January Effect
I'm hoping December 30 will be a great day for Gold Stocks and it shoudl be. Much of the tax loss lessing will have ended by then. Purchasing Stock on Dec/30/98 means the sale closes Jan/1/99.

That is, funds will not show AU stocks on the "books" in 98 but will will bne on the books for 99 when they repurchase them for the bonanza year in 99.



(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:27 - ID#413109)
Panda, thanks
But am familiar with Quote com and use it daily.
What I was getting on DBC Futures was all of the
listed commodity prices, similar to MRCI and including
the CRB index. The DBC people seem to have cut this.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:29 - ID#411259)
..... Salty .....

Sorry to disagree, but 1000 AD was a mess.

Seems that they used a three digit date code on the shank of those vicious looking swords all those ancients carry about in all those old cave pictures and rudimentary sculptures that now populate museums far from the lands in which these wonders were found. Had no room for the fourth digit on the shank once the first millenium was hit. No more swords were made. Piece and love reigned the earth. Until some schmoe decided to switch to a TWO digit code on the swords; representing the last two years only.

Folks then started to hack each other up into tiny bits again

And the world was as before

The rest is. How you say?




(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:32 - ID#45173)
Check out my Internet mania site if ya get a chance
I've been tweaking it. Don't miss the translated for Redneck dialect version.


(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:39 - ID#34883)
uh oh!

(Mon Dec 28 1998 22:44 - ID#153110)
Global Social Darwinism
In 1894 in the Elmira Bank case, the USSC opined that federally chartered banks were instrumentalities of the government. In 1934 this was enacted into Public Law. Wall Street is an instumentality of USG.

USG will not save the world from anything unless it benefits. The strong dollar policy is survival of the fittest in the fight for liquidity. Asia died that USD might live at the top.

Hello, I'm from USG and I'm here to help you by making you an offer you can't refuse. Governor X, isn't now the time to invest your state's funds in a US Bond ?

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:04 - ID#258273)
Mama told me not to c*#?m

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:10 - ID#34883)

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:16 - ID#251181)
History can be so misleading
ROTFL. But, if I may be permitted to add a footnote to your excellent history: Scribes labouring in Monasteries used three digit dates in tapestries never allowed for the fourth digit of the millennium because of one monk's mistake. {thinks: perhaps the fourth digit of the millennium is akin to the sixth sheep of the apocalypse} The fourth digit caused all sorts of confusion for hundreds of years until the invention of the Spinning Jenny. The Spinning Jenny gave rise to Luddites that opposed her whirling ways, whereupon charles Babbage forgot one cog in his adding machine that led us to the sorry state of the world today.

The chaos over the Y2K can be safely traced back to one monk mis-transcribing a brittle parchment in the 635th year of the Common Era. He had tippled too much meade and fallen off his donkey, spraining an ankle. This injury prevented the monk from swinking in the fields with his monken brethren on fine days, instead he was cloistered in the library on calendar transcribing duty. His attention wasn't on the job at hand, and he made a mistake on one calendar. He dropped one digit. Now look at the mess. Yup, it's all that monk's fault.

History is monk.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:22 - ID#34883)
something is not right

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:27 - ID#284188)
Silver already at $2.90/oz., in REAL 1982 terms

For those comparing today's price of silver ( around $5.00 ) to 1982's $50.00, you must discount today's price back to 1982 dollars, to get an accurate picture of the decline. Today's price of $5.00/oz. for silver is actually $2.90, a 94.2% decline in real terms.

Either way, silver has come a long way down. The question is, does it have a long way up ahead? I think, yes, but no one knows how far.

IMHO, Fergie

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:31 - ID#219363)
Off Topic
Completely off topic question, I just thought you guys might know an answer since there are so many non-US folks on the forum. If you've got a company in, say, South Africa or something, and you want to send your employees to the United States to do a construction job, what visa hoops do you have to jump through so they can do work for a few months in the states ? Does the US customer have to do anything special ? Any information appreciated.

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:34 - ID#344326)
@ BigFisherman and Mike Sheller
Anything more on that unconfirmed rumour about Soros getting ready to eat his young ( the gold shorts ) ? Also, a belated Happy Holidays to all Kitco posters and lurkers. My mood has been bleak as I was looking to '99 as a good year for gold but the deflationary pressures seem to be building. Even the near launch of the Euro, so far, is not moving it up. I fear the "People of the Fiat Currency" have won. A thanks to Mike Sheller's Sermon delivered earlier today. As one depressed Goldbug, I needed that.

El Borak
(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:34 - ID#227363)
Mooney Y1K
Mooney wrote the following --El Borak - I don't quite get it. You know that modern manias and panics have happened because of the amazing gullibilty of many individuals, so are you seriously doubting that hysterias did not happen in the distant past just because those less advanced civilizations did not leave volumes of printed material lying about? ( Might have had something to do with the lack of printing presses in those bygone days. ) --

Nope, not at all. What I am saying is that there is no evidence for widespread panic in Y1K, not that it never happened. There is a difference. Panics have happened all throughout history, even into our own so-called "enlightened" era.

The argument I keep seeing around is that Y2K is all hype because it's a big round number, just like Y1K. This is usually accompanied by detailed stories of Popes trying to quell the masses en masse at mass, or of thousands of peasants flogging themselves on the mountain tops. For these stories there is no evidence. It is this lack of documentation which causes me to doubt that there was *widespread* panic at the beginning of this millenium. There have always been individuals and small groups who have preached the end of the world.

We actually have quite a bit of evidence about what happened just 66 years later when William of Normandy conquered Britain, so lack of written material is really not an issue. I think the documentation for *this* panic does not exist because if it did occur, it was so small and isolated that the chroniclers didn't bother to record it.

It does make for good storytelling, nonetheless.

Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of Here-Kitty-Kitty brand sandwich slices. Cat: The Other White Meat

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:46 - ID#284188)
ANOTHER adjustment for inflation for gold...

If you adjust 1980's $850.00 high for gold, to 1997 dollars, you get a price of $1,831.79. This is an 84.3% decline in today's price, in dollar terms, over those years.

No wonder our pain is so great!

FWIW, Fergie

(Mon Dec 28 1998 23:48 - ID#210114)
More of the same: European CBs to sell gold.

Euro move could discount gold:

By Ian Davis

The start of the single European currency on January 1
could have a negative impact on gold prices, according to
a study by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

However the report, The Impact of the Euro, which
was released yesterday by the acting Prime Minister and
Minister for Trade, Mr Tim Fischer, forecasts a positive
effect overall for Australian trade and investment in
Europe over the longer term.

But it says that the offloading of gold supplies by
European national central banks following the creation of
the European Central Bank could have a negative impact
on the gold price.

Australian companies which had planned to use Britain as
a staging post for their European operations may also be
disadvantaged by Britain's decision to not join the single
currency initially.

Over the longer term, the study on the implications of the
EMU for Australia following the introduction of the euro
on January 1, 1999, says Australia could benefit from
potentially higher levels of EU growth and lower
long-term interest rates.

Mr Fischer said "the overall balance could be favourable
for those Australian companies which adjust early to the
euro and embrace Europe-wide strategies".

The report says Australian manufacturing exports to
Europe are likely to benefit from the simplification in
business dealings with the region as a result of a single set
of currency transactions for the entire market. This will be
partially offset by adjustment costs for invoicing and

Financial services will be most affected, with financial
service providers needing to give their customers the
option until July 2002 of continuing to use the 11 national
currencies or switching to the euro. They will need to
maintain two parallel accounting systems, the report says.

Most commodity exports which are denominated in $US
and wool which is quoted in $A will be unaffected,
however some commodities of which the EU is a major
exporter are likely to be priced in euros. The report says
BHP expects a euro-market in natural gas to develop
within 10 years.

It forecasts that more invest ment funds may be
channelled into non-European securities ( including
potentially the Australian market ) with the termination of
existing restrictions requiring pension funds to invest a
minimum percentage of assets in locally denominated

In the short term, "the European business environment
will become more competitive and exporters will need to
respond accordingly", the report says.

The gold price could be negatively affected because
individual national central banks will be holding larger
gold supplies than they are required to transfer to the
European Central Bank.

While firms which have invested in Britain as a staging
post for European markets may be at a "competitive
disadvantage" as a result of Britain's non-participation in
the single currency, Britain is "unlikely to remain out of
EMU for long [and] most Australian firms will probably
not see the need to shift their operations to continental

The report warns Australian exporters and banks will
need to adjust their invoicing and accounting systems to
accommodate the euro and that the pressure will be on
firms to use the euro in transactions from day one, even
though there is a three-year transitional period.

Costs of adjustment for the euro are likely to be offset by
reductions in the costs of currency transactions and
hedging, it says.