Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:01 - ID#258273)
I've been watching Soros as well and reading between the lines. While he argues for a one world financial order, he has occaisonally referred to the precious metals. He once espressed dread that the world financial system might collapse and only silver would be available in sufficient quantities as a medium of exchange. That, together with his brother's and Rothchild's play in Apex makes one wonder... perhaps his face will be on a silver coin someday. I have been accumulating Apex based upon these observations, and intend to hold it for a few more years.

John Disney
(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:02 - ID#24135)
nothing to lose but your chains ..
for rj ..
If your strike will make PM prices rise ..
please down tools ..
.. otherwise stick around ..

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:11 - ID#350194)
I found this comment by Retired Soldier Amusing: " ( today ) 04:35 RETIRED SOLDIER ( Cage Rattler ) ID#399147:
I do not think renouncing your American citizinship would help, you cannot disguise the fact that you are American born and that is what they object to. You could say you were Canadian but if they ask questions about Canada that you couldn't answer you would be up the creek anyway."
COME ON! After All, R.T. - How many Americans can name the last five presidents in order? How many know where the Gulf of Mexico is; or the Bering Strait? To pretend you are Canadian would not really be all that hard as the person asking the questions would have to be Canadian to know if your answers were correct. Someone here ( and this is a pretty smart crowd ) had to be told the other day what a beaver is! ( Not a part of female anatomy BTW. ) Can you imagine an Iraqi trying to judge who is Canadian and who is American? Even if the person had a Kentucky ( or Bronx, or Texan etc. ) accent they still wouldn't have a clue, as long as you don't speak about Frank Sinatra/John Denver/Gomer Pyle/John Wayne/Pearl Harbour/Monroe Doctrine/George Washington/ or apple pie. ( Oh yeah- Repukeagains and Dummercrats might also be dead giveaways. ) Just remember that the national flag has a red maple leaf in the center and that Queen Elizabeth is on all the coins. And - oh yeah - the Americans are our nasty neighbours to the south. ( Reindeer, Santa, Polarbears and eskimoos live in the frozen northern Artic wasteland and the mounties always get their man! )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:12 - ID#341312)
Hey RJ! Also a comment about Y2K stockpiling at the supermarket
RJ, if ACTC IRA bullion accounts are not stored at Wilmington Trust in Delaware, where exactly are they stored? Also, what's your 1999 forecast for platinum? You've probably already posted it, but I guess I missed it and am looking to establish a platinum ( bullion coins only, no leverage ) position in the next few months. Any likely periods of weakness in platinum spot? TIA.
For all you Y2K'ers out there ( you know who you are, you greedy selfish bas****s buying up all the canned goods and TP causing shortages and throwing old ladies on Social Security out in the street to starve right alongside the gay minority Vietnam Vets with Aids and the crack whores who really have hearts of gold...oh wait that's not happening yet, it'll be in that Hollywood movie due out in September, please disregard ) here's a tip: Go to Aldi. It's the "Stock-Up Store". Canned veggies: $0.30 Beans: $0.60 Big cans of fruit: $0.90 Canned potatoes: $0.30 etc. Fill up your cart for under $60 with tax. Plus, this sort of behavior is not only tolerated at Aldi, it's expected! Finally, a supermarket just for *us*. *Snif*. Wait, I'm kinda choked up right about now. Ok. The only drawback is lack of expiration dates on the house brands but I'm working on that info. Even without it, canned goods are "best by" for at least a year and edible far beyond that. Still waiting for those Aladdin lamps and Kero-Sun heaters. Tick, tock, tick, tock...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:13 - ID#20359)
There is a one world financial system and is called gold...plain and simple
all that is going on is a sick...dictatorial lust for CENTRAL CONTROL of every human being on the planet...government has out lived every government and their fiat tax whoring shackles because it puts the POWER in the hands of the PEOPLE...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:14 - ID#257312)
"You Know What" Going Mainstream

Check out this article from ABC news on y2k. Good international summary of problem. This would be a good article to print and show to your skeptical family and friends.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:23 - ID#249244)
Brother Tom,

Thanks accepted, but for what?

Anyway, thanks for your thanks.

PMSP, brother...By the way, are your friends still
with you or you spooked them all?...Hope you got
a case for $99 from AIM, good stuff. I got a couple
of cases yesterday...

Damn, I was wrong on 320 until the end of this year...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:27 - ID#257312)

I had occasion to meet two Canadians who were in Indianapolis on a construction project. Heh heh, you should have seen their eyes widen as I discussed the TSE history, Canadian-British relations in WW1, and the local politics of Nova Scotia. I'll bet many American Kitcoites could "pass"... Eh!: )

Steve in TO
(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:27 - ID#287337)
Mooney - give our friends to the South a break . . .
they're not nasty, just different. Most of 'em have hearts of gold, so to speak.

- Steve

BTW- the poster who didn't know what racoons & beavers were was our stalwart Aussie friend Nick. It's understandable, since Oz has a completely different set of fauna. They have some weird beasts, but none so strange as those 20-pound rodents who dam streams so they can have a pond to build their nest in, all the while enjoying delicious bark dinners from the trees they cut down to build their dam.

Speaking of bark- there's a source of food that's been entirely ignored. Probably provides so much dietary fibre that colon cancer would be unheard of among those eating it. May become quite popular during the Y2k chaos?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:35 - ID#341312)
Yep, that's about the way I see it, too. Not enough gold for common circulating coinage. Half or quarter oz gold pieces might make it for really big purchases but for everday stuff it'll be silver all the way. Maybe that's why Soros and Buffet have already made their moves. I think the worldwide experiment in unbacked fiat currency will last forever, or until the global electronic financial infrastructure undergoes a total existence failure, whichever comes first. Guess which happens in 1 year or less, depending on public panics? The game show for the new millenium is called "Y2K: You Bet Your Life!" ( and your spouse's, and your kids... ) ;- )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:39 - ID#330280)
T#1; You got it, partner!...It ain't over till "The Fat Lady Sings",,, and she'll have a
Golden Microphone! BTW, how's the recovery goin'? Hope you're back to being 100% well!

: )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:41 - ID#219363)
America Bashing
I love this place. We rock. Bash all you want *grin*.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:46 - ID#20359)
FOX-MAN, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I was on the way to recovery when I slipped
on the ice holding someone else least they are brain no pain...Happy Holidays to you and yours...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:52 - ID#219363)
Historical Fight For Honest Money in the US

(Wed Dec 30 1998 00:52 - ID#20359)
There is more than enough gold and silver to go around...if the paper printed represented
gold and silver all the gold and silver would not have to be in circulation at once...or gold and silver would represent x and x would represent the complete re-pricing of everything and above the planet...I am sure if we as a species can invent jello we can figure this out...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:00 - ID#187109)
limited and silver that is.......hmmmm....

JD is correct, volume in the gold and silver market were baaaaaad......plat on the other hand was better......I am still suspect though........perhaps it is time to pick up a leeetle beeet...... ( I'm gonna wait a while ) ........ dive in head first into some internet ain't seen the top yet....................this darn bull can run......


go gold.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:06 - ID#330280)
Honest money=Honest government=Gold returning to its fundamental reason for
existing. That's why God created it. He knows ( and has known ) that mankind
will stray from the checks and balances in "life". Just as an engine has
to be tweaked periodically, to run smoothly, so does the nature of man and the economics surrounding his life...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:07 - ID#341226)
@SPOCK...well, you are relentless...
I always get a kick out of your Vulcan ways.

I especially love your constant posts quoting the "Financial Review."

Tell me, Spock, I have followed the FR for well over a year. I have yet to read a single positive word about gold in that particular paper. It is undeniably a biased organ for anti-gold ideology and I would not be surprised to discover it is in the pay of a gold shorting hedge fund or Wall Street institution. Just the fact it refers to the "demonetization" of gold raises questions. Yes, I know, you'll say Australia sold its gold, Canada sold most of its gold, Belgium sold its gold...but countries desperately searching to raise monies for financing deficits, etc., does NOT necessarily spell the demonetization of gold. When the IMF sells all it gold, then I will begin to accept the concept of "demonetization" of gold. Until then...don't think so.

Again, in reference to your post the other day, you contend that so long as there are surplus gold reserves at the European Central Banks...and until they declare what their intentions will be with said surplus...then rumors about possible sales will weigh down the POG. Spock, just who are spreading those rumors? Aside from yourself, of course, it seems to be the same old gang of gold shorts and their captive media minions, no less. So ultimately, who really cares? By now, with most knowledgeable goldbugs highly aware of the enormous, uncoverable gold short position, then the same old, same old scare tactic by Wall Street is simply not frightening...rather, at this point, it is just a bore.

Ultimately, a rumor is just a rumor. One must always ask, "What is the credible basis of the rumor? Does it ring true with compelling logic?"

Anyway, I happened to hear a fairly credible rumor today myself, from the Kitco poster, "AFRICANMINER." Apparently, AFRICANMINER states that Allan Greenspan is about to announce partial gold backing of the American Dollar in order to guarantee its competitiveness with the new EURO. Hmmmmmmm????

Now if there's any truth to that rumor ( and it sure made a lot of sense to me ) , then I would imagine a 50-75 dollar upspike in gold could happen in the first hour of trading...don't you think?



(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:15 - ID#187109)
Jake and the madness of crowds.........
That Jake is alright.......

buy golf now...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:19 - ID#257312)
Clinton Wannabe Tony Blair in Trouble

Scandals are rocking the British government. Story from the London Times ( via a post on another forum )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:39 - ID#258302)

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:42 - ID#399147)
Your point is well taken, but it is impossible for an American to hide his origins as I said. No sense in giving up your citizenship think it would make you any safer. Shalom

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:45 - ID#344326)
Well worth a read......
Is Alan Greenspan Manipulating the Gold Market?

Almost to the day, the second great manipulation of the gold market began 132 years after the first.
On September 24, 1869, a pair of rascals named Jim Fisk and Jay Gould cornered the New York gold market, forcing short sellers to cover at any price. Around the same week of 1998, a man named Alan Greenspan began controlling the price of gold by lending the metal to investment bankers who sold it short each day to keep the market price from rising above $300 a share.

Fisk and Gould were out to make millions squeezing the short sellers. Greenspan's objective is to protect our economy. When the Fed head organized the bailout of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, a part of the problem was the fund's surprisingly big short position in gold.

Then it turned out that other hedge funds and institutional speculators were--and many still are--short of 8,000 to as much as 14,000 metric tons of gold, many times annual production. If even a few of these shorts were forced to cover their frantic buying, it would send gold skyrocketing by hundreds of dollars an ounce.

Can we prove this? No. But Fed Chairman Greenspan said that he would control the gold market if he had to. He spelled it out on July 24 in little-noticed testimony before the House Banking Committee. The chairman was trying to downplay the risk that some derivative contracts might produce a squeeze on short sellers.

He explained that there was no danger that the supply of oil to fulfill derivative contracts could be restricted. Then, he added, 'Nor can private counterparts restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.'

You can hardly get clearer than that. We should never have wondered why gold couldn't seem to break through the 300 level. The answer was right there in the Banking Committee hearings. It was buried in pages of boring testimony, but we have missed it. In other words, Greenspan told us two months in advance what the Federal Reserve would do to keep gold from going to the moon.

The market performance of the yellow metal shows clearly that it was controlled in a narrow band from 300 to about 305 from the last week of September--the 132nd anniversary of the 1869 gold corner--to the third week of October. Since then, control has kept gold bouncing from 292 to 300 and back again. And in the last three weeks the selling pressure has created a slight downtrend.

The possibility of manipulation of the gold market first hit us in the spring. We'd been predicting that gold would eventually recover from its long bear market, but every time it rallied the rally was aborted by sales of central bank gold.

It wasn't just the sales themselves that kept gold down, it was the way the central banks sold. Instead of carefully metering out their sales to get the best price and not disturb the market, they carelessly dumped their bullion and usually denied they were doing it.

At first we thought this was deliberate. Eventually we realized it simply reflected the attitude of the present generation of central bank bureaucrats. They hate markets, don't know how to deal with them and don't want to know.

As gold waterfalled down, producers continued to hedge the price of their future output and put further pressure on the market. Gloom reigned. It seemed to some of us that with inflation dead the naysayers might be right and gold was just another commodity. And then, in a move that rarely happens in any market all of the negative factors keeping the yellow metal down seemed to evaporate so abruptly that gold gained an amazing $20-an-ounce in only a couple of trading sessions, a $35 jump from the lows.

It rocketed straight up in a way not seen since the great gold bubble of the early 1980s. Gold rose as far as $315 and then settled back around $308. To traders and portfolio managers the question was: is the move for real or only another fake out?

The spring rally wound up going nowhere. It spent the summer trending down, down, down--until September, when it came back to life again with a sudden runup from its 18-year low of 277.90 to 300 in 10 days of heavy trading.

The buying was enthusiastic enough to shrug off the Czech central bank sale of 31 metric tons of gold thrown at the market right in the face of its upward surge. At the same time, the central bank of Luxembourg said it had sold most of its reserve, perhaps 10 metric tons.

The market ignored both sales. The problem for gold bears was that world currencies and its stock markets were all tanking, banks were reporting huge trading losses and Russia was coming apart.

Why was the barbarous relic moving up? Because people all over the world were beginning to worry whether the money in their pockets and purses was really as sound as all the central bankers claimed.

Without admitting any danger, the European Parliament backed calls for the creation of a 100-Euro gold coin as legal tender once the European Union's single currency becomes widely circulated. Sales of gold coins around the world were surging. U.S. bullion coin demand reached an 11-year high.

There were rumors that an Asian-type International Monetary Fund might be launched based on a gold-backed Japanese Yen. Indian gold demand was 19% higher for the first three quarters of the year over the same period of 1997. Demand for gold was up in Southeast Asia and in South Korea.

None of these factors was crucial; but they indicated that gold was sneaking its way back into fashion. And this was bad news for Greenspan & Company. So, it's reported that Washington got on the horn and asked Asian governments not to be aggressive buyers of the yellow metal while the Fed was trying to engineer a soft landing for the short sellers.

The Swiss government cooperated by asking its Parliament to approve sale of 1,300 metric tons of gold. The lawmakers cooperated but the people will get to vote on it in 2000.

It's reported that the countryside Swiss are not in favor of lessening the strength of the world's hardest currency. Even worse for the Fed, it's rumored that the gold backing of the Euro may be raised from the currently planned 15% to 30-35%. France has strongly pushed for this to make sure that the Euro will be strong enough to rival the dollar.

It's intriguing that half a dozen of the biggest investment banks have issued reports on gold in the past couple of weeks. Bear Stearns weighed in with a handsomely printed 86-pager announcing that precious metals are 'back on the radar screen,' and gold is a 'disappointing metal showing signs of life.'

Chief among the reasons given for this is that there has been less exploration and development, which has reduced supply, mining company costs have been cut, and gold is underowned and underrepresented in investment portfolios. The report also suggests that it may no longer be easy for speculators to lease gold and sell it.

Prudential Securities' study says 'we are warming up to gold' because there is more upside than downside in the next year. It forecasts an average price of $320 an ounce for 1999 compared with $297 this year. The Pru will not be surprised to see short covering rallies as hedge funds unwind their positions. It also notes the possibility that the European Central Bank will increase the percentage of gold in its foreign reserves.

Salomon Smith Barney says it's positive toward the gold sector and expects the metal will breech the $300 an ounce resistance level and average $350 next year as fears of central bank sales subside and short pressure eases.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's gold analyst, Douglas M. Cohen, comes down on the bear side of the fence. No crisis seems able to trigger a rise in gold and continued central bank lending are his principal negatives. Indeed, he says that Venezuela, Germany, Portugal, Austria, and Switzerland are new entrants into the gold lending market.

Old friend Bill Murphy, a veteran gold trader, who writes on the metal under the name 'Midas' [] says there's a cabal of investment banks who are leasing and shorting in cooperation with the Fed and others to cap gold at $300 an ounce. e believes that Goldman Sachs is a leader of the group which includes J.P. Morgan. Perhaps that's the reason, says Bill, that Morgan issued a report predicting that the price of gold will fall in early 1999 before steadying up later in the year.

If being negative on gold is an indication of membership in the short selling gang, then Lehman Brothers must be a suspect. A week ago, Lehman issued a flash meeting report titled 'Reiterating our Bearish View of Gold Equities.' In somewhat snotty tones, the report says, 'gold equities continue to discount a significant and sustainable rise in gold prices as if it were inevitable. It isn't.' Lehman maintains its long-term average gold price forecast of $290 an ounce, ending the note by pointing out proudly that this price forecast is 'the lowest on the Street.'

Though there's a ceiling on the price of gold created by Fed-facilitated borrowing and short selling, there appears to be a floor under the metal that keeps its price from collapsing below the $295 area. Each time gold hits the floor, it bounces just a little and then hits the ceiling. We assume that the floor consists of official buying by central banks. Poland and Russia have bought openly; China and Japan are believed to be buying and it's likely there are others. In addition there's growing private demand for gold in Asia as a shield against currency devaluation.

With gold unable to climb, it may seem strange that the gold-oriented mutual funds have recently performed so well. According to CDA/Wiesenberger Editor Stephanie Kendall, the month of September was truly golden for these funds with eight of the top 10 jumping over 50% in total return for the month. The reason: bullion did relatively well during the month and gold equities historically move three times as much as the price of gold. The move can be up or down. For September, Fidelity Select Gold posted a hefty return of 54.93%. But its year-to-date return is a minus 9.1%.

No one knows when gold will trade in a free market. The amount of the metal sold short by speculators is huge and the Fed and its associates may work at the unwinding for some time. And even when all shorts have been covered, the Fed may find itself riding a tiger wondering how to get off without being eaten.

The gold corner in 1869 only lasted days. Fisk and Gould had bribed the brother-in-law of President Grant to use his influence to keep the Treasury from releasing any of its reserves. But, the game was lost when Washington changed its mind and overwhelmed the corner with Federal gold.

We don't see a quick and easy end to the present control.

John Tompkins, a frequent contributor to Reader's Digest and former regional business correspondent for Time

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:45 - ID#187109)
hey CAPS LOCK......
knock it off.......

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:53 - ID#399147)
Your point is well taken, but it is impossible for an American to hide his origins as I said. No sense in giving up your citizenship think it would make you any safer. Shalom Also a Beaver is a good part of female anatomy ( HAR HAR )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:53 - ID#187109)
for the guy who has everything.........



(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:55 - ID#403195)
Y2K chickens

The first business days of January, 1999, are close upon us. It is in the first weeks of the new year when we shall see the first of the heretofore unattended y2k chickens coming home to roost. A local planning department in a regional district here encountered a problem last November. An attempt had been made to create a trial budget for the next fiscal year. It didn't work. They had no fix. The newspaper reporting the matter did not play it up but the first drop is in the local y2k awareness bucket.

Auric: how fine to encounter an American who has troubled to read a book. We are not paranoid here in Canada. We Canadians do encounter some odd "knowledge" on the part of people from your country, people that one would otherwise expect to be well read and otherwise educated. Since you have a wider view than some of your countrymen, you must have seen the same odd "blindness" to current affiars and history external to the United States and to languages other than English.

A happy new year, everybody, and may we see a more rational gold market in 1999.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 01:56 - ID#399147)
Baruch Ha Shem
I never got your e-mail, but have replied to your latest. Shalom.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 02:01 - ID#254288)

India: Approximate Population 925 million.
Gold Purchases in 1997 & 1998; about 700 tonne annually.
Average is about 0.024 ounces or $7.30 per head at $300 gold.
If the the CB's want to sell; let the games begin.
Even a primative headhunter can afford $7.30.
When the proverbial hits the fan, it'll take A New York Minute.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 02:19 - ID#257312)

Learnt most of what I know right here at Kitco: )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 02:38 - ID#285430)
$100 gold euro?
I heard something about the Euro having a 100-euro gold coin
after it stabalizes.

Interesting. Is it a nominal amount of gold, or what? Perhaps
it will 1/10th of an ounce?

Of course, you all realize, that the big plan is to use the Euro here.
That won't happen until the dollar crumbles. It's all a big Freemasonic
plot to take over the world. I gotta go the aliens are calling.


(Wed Dec 30 1998 02:44 - ID#284255)
Swing chart updated

Up we go again?

Cage Rattler
(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:02 - ID#33184)
Crude oil seems to formed a double bottom on a closing basis

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:03 - ID#284255)
Big Bang Weekend

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:07 - ID#257313)
Anyone know the author and media source below?

NEW YORK - U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD ON OPEN MARKETS. Alan Greenspan said Tuesday in
response to The EURO There will have to be a new currency--a new dollar--with something behind it to
restore confidence. The one commodity, which has been a reliable, universally accepted basis for monetary
confidence for thousands of years is Gold. And so, gold will have to be used in setting up a new system of
stable international currencies, including the dollar. However, the Federal Reserve System was relieved of
any responsibility in 1971 by President Nixon, whom closed the international gold window, discontinuing
settlement of international debts in gold, as the U.S. Treasury Department was made physical custodian of all
U.S. gold stocks. With the EURO Dollar having a gold backing of 15% the U.S. is going to have to respond. It
hasnt been since 1968 when President Johnson signed into law an act removing the final 25% gold backing
requirement from the dollar. The need for a strong world currency couldnt be more evident. Talk in
Washington D. C. is of a growing need to return to a partial gold backing for the Dollar.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:17 - ID#257313)
Gold is being manipulated b/c the Treasury has been looted.
There were rumors that an Asian-type International Monetary Fund might be launched based on a gold-backed Japanese Yen. Indian gold demand was 19% higher for the first three quarters of the year over the same period of 1997. Demand for gold was up in Southeast Asia and in South Korea.

None of these factors were crucial; but they indicated that gold was sneaking its way back into fashion. And this was bad news for Greenspan & Company. So, it's reported that Washington got on the horn and asked Asian governments not to be aggressive buyers of the yellow metal while the Fed was trying to engineer a soft landing for the short sellers.
It's intriguing that half a dozen of the biggest investment banks have issued reports on gold in the past couple of weeks.

Bear Stearns weighed in with a handsomely printed 86-pager announcing that precious metals are 'back on the radar screen,' and gold is a 'disappointing metal showing signs of life.'

Though there's a ceiling on the price of gold created by Fed-facilitated borrowing and short selling, there appears to be a floor under the metal that keeps its price from collapsing below the $295 area. Each time gold hits the floor, it bounces just a little and then hits the ceiling. We assume that the floor consists of official buying by central banks. Poland and Russia have bought openly; China and Japan are believed to be buying and it's likely there are others. In addition there's growing private demand for gold in Asia as a shield against currency devaluation.

No one knows when gold will trade in a free market. The amount of the metal sold short by speculators is huge and the Fed and its associates may work at the unwinding for some time. And even when all shorts have been covered, the Fed may find itself riding a tiger wondering how to get off without being eaten.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:32 - ID#284255)
America - you're standing in it.....

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:34 - ID#413175)
Bart Kitner U.

Ave, discipuli!

"We, the Chancellor and Governors of Bart Kitner University in convocation assembled, do confer upon thee, Auric, the degree of Bachelor of Canadian Studies."

( Note the gold seal at the bottom, not the effigy of some "old geezer" from S.A. but of Bart. )

Cage Rattler
(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:42 - ID#33184)
Source: As per Dec 30 03:07, Dec 29, 13:51

(Wed Dec 30 1998 03:57 - ID#257312)
Doctor of Thinkology
"The sum of the square roots of any two sides of an isosceles triangle is equal to the square root of the remaining side."

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:12 - ID#230243)
Exciting, but is it feasible?

One year of silver production will produce about 16,200 miles of superconductor cable sheathing.......a pittance relative to the lenghts required for even the simplest grid.

Silver is money and should be used as such. It should be used for the backing of a nations currency, this should be its primary use.

Put the correct value on this metal and the global currencies using it will be among the strongest.
The fixing of gold and silver at minimum values of $1200 and $75 respectively, plus the removal of floating exchange rates would be among the best contributions to the new millenium.

At the prices mentioned, the production of both metals is likely to be enough for the removal of fiat currencies and should instill public confidence in government.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:14 - ID#230243)
Exciting, but is it feasible?

One year of silver production will produce about
16,200 miles of superconductor cable
sheathing.......a pittance relative to the lenghts required for even the simplest grid.

Silver is money and should be used as such. It
should be used for the backing of a nations
currency, this should be its primary use.

Put the correct value on this metal and the global currencies using it will be among the strongest.
The fixing of gold and silver at minimum values of $1200 and $75 respectively, plus the removal of
floating exchange rates would be among the best
contributions to the new millenium.

At the prices mentioned, the production of both
metals is likely to be enough for the removal of
fiat currencies and should instill public
confidence in government.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:24 - ID#386245)
Merkan Critters--as gold is rather boring right now.
Thanx for the edification on raccoons and beavers.
Actually I full well know the difference. I lived many years in the US, though never saw them in the wild ( or the tame--for that matter ) .

Raccoons are the things that frontiersmen wear on their heads. I saw Fess Parker wearing one at the Alamo and I know that all little Merkins wore them in the fifties. In fact, I had one myself.

Beavers are more difficult to spot. I was attending a college in California in the 60's and one day went into the college bar ( another critter ) .

"Hi guys. What's happening," I said.

"We're looking for beaver," was the reply. Now I thought this rather strange that these university types were sitting in a college bar looking for wild animals, instead of sitting by a stream in the wilderness. I left rather perplexed, but hoped that they found their beavers.

A few months later I was sitting in my car with my girlfriend outside her dormitory at one in the morning. It was a poignant moment, as we had both realized that the relationship was over. We had argued and said a few things that couldn't be retracted. We were sitting there in silence. Over her shoulder something caught my eye. It was the biggest skunk in the history of the world. I started to smirk. She looked at me, most offended, and cried. I said "Look!!" She looked, but it was gone. Well, no amount of explaining helped. "You liar!!!" she said as she slammed the door. It was a mixed blessing. The relationship stunk, but jeeez she was pretty.

I have already told the story at Kitco about the Vietnamese student and the critter, but will tell it again.

Tran walked into the dormitory stinking to high heaven. "Tran, what happened to you???" "I don't know. I saw this nice pussy cat and went up to pat it." Well we put him in the shower for a couple of hours, to no avail. The whole dorm stunk for weeks!!! You have never lived until you have been sprayed by a skunk. Reminds me of my gold shares. Cheers, Nick.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:25 - ID#257313)
Cage Rattler: The feds dont have any gold to sale, gave it away along time ago.
Old friend Bill Murphy, a veteran gold trader, who writes on the metal under the name 'Midas' [] says there's a cabal of investment banks who are leasing and shorting in cooperation with the Fed and others to cap gold at $300 an ounce. Bill believes that Goldman Sachs is a leader of the group which includes J.P. Morgan. Perhaps that's the reason, says Bill, that Morgan issued a report predicting that the price of gold will fall in early 1999.

If being negative on gold is an indication of membership in the short selling gang, then Lehman Brothers must be a suspect. A week ago, Lehman issued a flash meeting report titled 'Reiterating our Bearish View of Gold Equities.' In somewhat snotty tones, the report says, 'gold equities continue to discount a significant and sustainable rise in gold prices as if it were inevitable. It isn't.' Lehman maintains its long-term average gold price forecast of $290 an ounce, ending the note by pointing out proudly that this price forecast is 'the lowest on the Street.

In 1869 Fisk and Gould were out to make millions squeezing the short sellers. Greenspan's objective is to protect our economy. When the Fed head organized the bailout of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, a part of the problem was the fund's surprisingly big short position in gold.

Then it turned out that other hedge funds and institutional speculators were--and many still are--short of 8,000 to as much as 14,000 metric tons of gold, many times annual production. If even a few of these shorts were forced to cover their frantic buying, it would send gold skyrocketing by hundreds of dollars an ounce.

Can we prove this? No. But Fed Chairman Greenspan said that he would control the gold market if he had to. He spelled it out on July 24 in little-noticed testimony before the House Banking Committee. The chairman was trying to downplay the risk that some derivative contracts might produce a squeeze on short sellers.

When and not if the Feds want the price to rise it will rise like nothing ever seen before. The Euro is backing there money in gold and the U.S. is going to do the same. It's being talked about even now ( privately )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:32 - ID#257312)
Nick-- Leave It To Beaver

That explains what June meant when she said, "Ward, weren't you a little rough on the Beaver last night?"

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:41 - ID#257148)
Here! Kitty, kitty.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 04:55 - ID#258195)
Gold and Silver Lease rates over the Christmas Holidays
For Thursday 24th Dec
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---1.29---------------1.10-------------1.19-----------------1.53
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.07 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.13 ) ----------- ( - 0.04 )
Silver Lease Rate--- ( NA ) --------------1.75--------------2.59-----------------3.06
( Change ) --------- ( NA ) -------- ( - 0.15 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( + 0.20 )

Friday 25th and Monday 28th Dec
London markets closed.

For Tuesday 29th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month

Mean GoldLR------4.32---------------4.11-------------3.80-----------------3.53
Gold Lease Rate---1.30---------------1.14-------------1.29-----------------1.53
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.04 ) ------- ( + 0.10 ) ----------- ( 0.00 )

Silver Lend Rate----4.10--------------3.35-------------2.50-----------------2.20
Silver Lease Rate---1.52--------------1.90--------------2.59-----------------2.86
( Change ) --------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.90-------------4.77---------------4.76---------------4.72
( Change ) ----- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
With apologies for the delay in posting this morning. Joseph ( my paper-boy ) must have had a lie-in!.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 05:21 - ID#284255)
Eureka Gold - down the mine shaft if you're bored

(Wed Dec 30 1998 06:24 - ID#365216)
GAO says federal government unprepared for Y2K
Pentagon is the worst.

Platinum up $9 yesterday; yehaw :+ )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 06:38 - ID#37463)
Well folks, I have a hard enough time keeping up on estate planning without becoming a gold and precious metals expert but feel to predict that 199 will be a year like none of us have know. I predict the equities markets are going to suffer great turmoil. I predict that the metals markets are going to be the benefactors of that undercurrent. I may be wrong but I am going to stake my chances this year on gold and on it going up. Given the world turmoil, other than spiritual preparedness and food and necessities storage preparedness, this woudl appear to me to be the best storehouse of value in a turbulent world which is not looking to me to be settling down. The world economy is being held together with financial bailing wire and fiscal string. Get your yellow stuff people.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 06:40 - ID#37463)
That would be 1999 rather than 199--kind of a Freudian Y2K thing.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:21 - ID#348257)
Oil Bottom

Price patterns in Crude Oil indicate the exhaustion of the current decline is either here or imminent.

Wave counts indicate a 5 wave decline Macro has been put in, with an abbreviated 5th wave. The Micro pattern of the abbreviated 5th Wave confirms this inasmuch as IT's 5th Wave is ALSO abbreviated. Either there is another dollar or so of price weakness to come, or they are confirming each other in a bottom, with prices about to rebound.

Put/Call ratio in options for Natural Gas are looking bullish. Crude oil must now confirm on a daily basis, but this is not absolutely neccessary for a bottom to be forming.


There is now talk of $5 Oil. There has been ongoing talk of deflation and everyone has taken notice of commodity weakness. Asian & Latin American financial troubles & recession have been duly discounted. The psychological atmosphere is extremely pessimistic, prices are low, industry consolidation and layoffs continue apace. REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO WHEN EVERYONE THOUGHT STOCKS WERE GOING TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET AND MOST SHARES WERE DOWN OVER 40-50%!!! Well, the oil patch has seen FAR MORE devastation.


The Saturn opposition to NYSE Neptune which called out the oil weakness throughout all of '98 ( as I predicted here in 1997 while oil prices were much higher ) is now returned to maximum pressure within ONE DEGREE of opposition. Coming out of retrograde YESTERDAY at 26 Aries, it will oppose NYSE Neptune at 27 Libra for only ONE MORE MONTH. Shares may anticipate the relenting of Saturn's opression sooner than crude oil prices, but by February/March the energy market will be visibly repairing itself.


I smell a bottom!

Buy your favorite Oil Shares now!

My favorite - CRK.


Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:22 - ID#348257)
the year 199? Is this like some kinda yk2k3 problem you got?

as I recall, 199 was one helluva year.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:22 - ID#26793)
London morning currency news (note Russia and Brazil back in the news)

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:27 - ID#348257)
PS - Oil bottom revisited
one more factor...


Oil is the commodity product and source of wealth and revenue for too many unstable nations for there not to be some kind of behind the scenes concerted effort to shore up this market price. Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc, etc. It would be easier to try to boost the oil price than print money or loan capital to all these sinking barges. If they go down, world political and economic instability will be a major problem.
I am NOT a believer that governments can properly allocate, control, or regulate resources or markets for long, if at all. But nevertheless, an energy wildcard may be the ATTEMPT to do so, which may be viewed short term, in many interesting ways by market participants.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:28 - ID#37463)
The year 199
Mike Sheller, I remember that year with great fondness. Seems like eons ago. It goes hand in hand with the mental breakdown I'm having trying to get our year end offices finances in order.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:30 - ID#26793)
London morning precious metals news

(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:38 - ID#26793)
Gorbachev says he lost life savings in Russian bank failure

(Wed Dec 30 1998 07:46 - ID#26793)
Texas worries about an oil shortage

Crystal Ball
(Wed Dec 30 1998 08:14 - ID#287404)
@ Mike Sheller
Thanks for the astrological update; agree the downdraft in light crude has been overdone. I see precious has been up $1.00 in Europe, but gold's early morning flights of fancy have been ephemeral of late, yielding to late pressure from "the boys" in New York. Will today be different? I'm suspecting one more short term downswing in the XAU with PDG retesting 10 11/16 before the Gorgonzola hits the fan, and still believe we can approach 80 in the XAU within a few weeks as stated yesterday. Namaste'.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 08:47 - ID#242325)
Crazytimes Your 1:45 Post is the one to READ !
Thank you,

NOW...! I know what I had been missing,and see my guts feelings where right on :

Here is the heart of the matter on the GOLD Price Manipulation in this not so free market!....Quote:

( ( ( ( Fed Chairman Greenspan said that he would control the gold market if he had to. He
spelled it out on July 24 in little-noticed testimony before the House Banking Committee. The chairman was trying
to downplay the risk that some derivative contracts might produce a squeeze on short sellers.

He explained that there was no danger that the supply of oil to fulfill derivative contracts could be restricted. Then,
he added, 'Nor can private counterparts restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often
traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price
rise.' ) ) ) )

Thanks Crazytimes.....I want to sue the Chairman for my big losts...@!#
before TSHTF!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 08:52 - ID#434108)
Franco-Nevada has a great looking chart.
Altho, it's up-to-date chart-pattern,
coincides with recent 'news' releases,
it is, evenso, a rather bullish looking chart.
Happy New Year,
You can find FN.TO ( -Toronto ) at:

(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:23 - ID#317211)
goldfevr: Agreed that FN charts look mui bueno.
And stock value seems to be holding nicely despite this recent dip in POG.
But watch out for that Canadian Peso. Regards

(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:30 - ID#45173)
Deflation politics
U.S. wire rod makers seek action against imports

The goodness of easy credit and open trade depends on who's ox is getting gored.


(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:38 - ID#317193)
Bonds and Gold...
Japanese government ten year bonds...yield over big deal right?...wrong!

We watch this new bond market together. Yes! If the bond markets takes a severe hit gold will take off. IMO


(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:40 - ID#434108)
(not my original--) H. R. Clinton's New Year's Resolution
That all whitehouse interns accept:
'the President's pants'
are a 'no-fly' zone.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:48 - ID#411259)
..... farfel, you wrote: .....

"I am willing to bet that if you are right, then it will be largely for reasons OTHER than Y2K. Furthermore, if you are right ( and no doubt your track record has been very good ) , then I suspect you are erring on the side of underestimation of gold's ultimate price target for '99. That is because I believe that the ONLY way gold will rise notably this year is if the US government dominated global financial status quo falls apart. In such an event, then gold to 340-370 by year's end seems to be a significant underestimate."


While I still have disagreements with you regarding the role of the US in the global gold market, the rest of the above is a statement I can heartily endorse. I also believe that the whole Y2K thingy will be a major factor in supporting any sustained gold rally. It is the private investor that has been missing from the gold market these last few years, and it is the same that needs to reappear to support any rallies and make the shorts think twice about the risk/reward ratio while fundamental interest in the metal is rising.

I rarely call for a metal to explode, and I am not calling for gold to do so. My estimate is that gold will trade above $350 by June and, most probably, we will see spikes above $400 by the end of the year. These are conservative estimates, I admit - the potential is much higher - but I don't need much higher to make my trades work. I will concede to you that my targets are on the low side, but this makes any rise beyond my target a pleasant and profitable surprise, rather than a slight disappointment of "only" a $70 or $80 rise in the POG.

I usually see the glass as half full


(Wed Dec 30 1998 09:57 - ID#288186)
Tom; I'd say that was a good bet. If bond prices plummmmeetttt, then gold
would rise, IMHO. the operative word, though, is IF.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:10 - ID#317193) got that right! how that word describes the gold market for the last year and one-half. Change? We wait and watch.


(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:10 - ID#33188)
Mike Sheller: CRK
Mike, is your preference among the oil service shares for CRK technical, astrological, or fundamental? You were right about it in the fall on astrological clues, when it surged past 5 before falling back to the current 2 7/8. I also think its price looks attractive now, but am curious about your reasons.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:14 - ID#348129)
@RJ - sure hope your "conservative" estimates come in
"a slight disappointment of "only" a $70 or $80 rise in the POG."
If we do indeed get such a rally, especially by 99/June, then many of the severely beaten down mid-tier Gold stocks will easily Double to Triple from these prices, with even higher spikes up.
Not a bad deal all in all.
My own favourites include TVX, GRE, GSC and K. BGO is a ???
BPT.A is a severely underpriced closed-end Gold stock fund that would also soar.
QTR may be the star junior, ready to explode if the recent drilling grades
are favourable.

Good luck to all "AU" people for the new year.......

Spud Master
(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:29 - ID#273112)
EB, here's ***YOUR*** chance to spume Greek Fire!
Spud declares the Internet Frenzy to have burst!

( camera zooms into to creosote wood pole, Spud refusing the blindfold, cigarettes. "Bad for your health" he calmly intones. Camera pans back, taking in bullet hole-pocketed red brick wall. EB, his mouth full of avocado, gallon jug of cheap rot-gut in left hand, dressed fine in sissy gold-frill Napoleonic Field Marshall uniform, attempts to give firing orders... )

all the best, Eric ; ) We ( me and the departed Spirit of Queso Grande Auro ) love ya, big guy = )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:45 - ID#288186)
Tom; As long as Bonds don't rally, impulsively, in 5 waves, and stay below
129ish ( per March contract ) , then we could see prices go below 124'21
at a minimum! Next support below that, according to the EWT short term
update, is near 122'30! This amounts to roughly 5.6% in cash yield.
I agree with ya mon! Is change a-commin'? Very much a "maybe"!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:46 - ID#224363)
RJ...You make a strong case for an increase in the POG but I can't help feeling that the central banks will continue to play a game of manipulation with gold.

I'm not usually a follower of conspiracy theories but the whole gold thing over the last couple of years seems to reek of manipulation ( intentional or otherwise ) .

I do not believe that the central banks feel that it is in their best interests to see the price of gold rise - especially during 1999 as Y2K, Euro, Asia and other issues bubble up. It would take massive gold purchase to overwhelm the central bank's ability to dump the stuff on the market.

I guess all of this begs a few questions: Do the CBs have the balls to keep manipulating the metal ? Can they do it through leases or will they have to actually sell the stuff ?

Having said all of this, I'll keep my stocks and metal cause between now and when I die, the price has got to go up.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:47 - ID#43349)
Another term for the Silver Falcon?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:47 - ID#240248)
Bonds and Oil
Wait until the US Government can't print/distribute/sell treasuries later in 1999. Then we will see the spike in the POG we all think should occur. AG and the CB's may be powerful but they are not omnipotent.

I hate to put up general info without a reference but with all the questions about oil prices here there is some logic to the low prices. I flew from NC to Colorado and had a chance to read a US News, a Time, a Businessweek etc. One of em had a great article on oil. The basis of the article was that as late as 87 and 91 major experts were calling for the world to run out of oil by 95. The oil companies have since come up with new and innovative ways of extracting oil and the supply is basically now unlimited. Much like diamonds, the lack of regulation around the supply can easily depress the price. With such honest, ethical and upright countries as mentioned in recent posts here is there any wonder that the supply amounts to a glut? Combine that with a bit of downturn in demand from Asia and a few others and you have what appear to be unusually low prices. In reality they are probably just the beginning of new low prices for oil that we will see for a long time.


(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:53 - ID#286230)
Royal Oak may have a Bad Day Monday

(Wed Dec 30 1998 10:57 - ID#432298)
I could not have said it better myself. You are absolutely correct. Gold is manipulated. And like you, I too am holding onto my investment because 1 ) I invested with money that I don't need at present and 2 ) I feel the same way you do, that the price will ultimately go up between now and the time I die. The patient investor will be well rewarded.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:04 - ID#187109)
more like.........
( camera pans out into the sunset ) ............... ( showing *the real* EB dressed in black with mask ) ....................... ( atop his favorite black stallion ) ................................... ( sending smoke signals of course ) ...........feeling good about just saving his friend the Spudders from a sure death firing squad....... ( for calling an end to ( what has been commonly referred to as ) "Net Frenzy '99"................hi ho wrong guy......................replacing sword back to sheath from making his mark on the world................."!ohmy"............ ( not ZorrO that would be stealing;- ) ) ............. ( hmmmm where is this going......oh yeah ) .........................Spudders yelling back to the brave caballero ( dressed sissily in black onthe fine stead ) , "squuuze me Mr EB!..........could you spare a couple-o-shares of some good net stox"?!?!??!!? "All I have are these gold coins and not even the poor peasants want to steal them from me"! "I tried giving some AWAY and that is how I got strung up to this pole....'bout ready to have the life taken outta me". "El Presidente AL Greenspan has declared that owning gold coinage is morally wrong and demanded that ALL CITIZENS turn in the gold *now* so that a great statue of himself can be erecTED to show ALL citizens who the real bossman is"!!!! "I refused to give up my coins and declared that they will hafta ( and I've heard this many times at kitco ) *PRY THEM FROM MY STIFF, COLD HANDS* before I'd give up my precious"................."geeeeez"......"I didn't think they'd take me seriously"!!................ ( camera fades back to the BRAVE SOUL on the steed ) ..............the masked man is heard saying as he turns to ride off into the sunset..........."shoulda-coulda-woulda".................. ( camera fades to black ) ......................

OHMY! find a good sunset.......

maskedanddangerousbutfriendlytotheseoritas: )

on a less/more serious note..........this net craze has not seen it's last gasp yet, no? There are far more net stox to pump&dump ( I believe that is a favorite expression of the net traders ) ................anyway, 'corrections' being made they are here to stay.............for a while;- ) ) ) )

*buy golF - NOW*

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:04 - ID#432298)
I am willing to bet that come Monday that Royal Oaks demise will be felt by all the other junior gold mining companies even though they ( the others ) have their act together. Remember the Brezak ( not sure of the spelling ) incident?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:10 - ID#288466)
Will @ gas/oil
Not only is there good reason to believe that the USG may have some trouble pushing its paper in late 99, but also.....

There is much evidence that the "oil crisis" ( better referred to as a gasoline crisis ) in the U.S. in the 70's was no more than a huge increase in the rolling stocks of gasoline, as the fleet of domestic autos went from Half-full ( on balance ) to nearly 100% full on the threat of supply cutoffs. No major inventory changes in crude stocks were experienced - it was a DEMAND bottleneck. I believe that as 1999 winds down YOU WILL SEE THIS AGAIN, as the threat of supply disruptions looms ahead - because of the Y2K effect on electric power distribution, transportation, retail execution because of computer problems, etc.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:11 - ID#288466)
Oh, and BTW, AG will be long gone before 1999 is over.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:13 - ID#347167)
tidbits (old stuff)
Halliburton Sees Lowered Q4 Earnings, Job Cuts>

SPX To Cut 1,000 Jobs, Take $250 Million Charge

AT&T job cuts ahead of schedule,25,30324,00.html?pfv

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:14 - ID#286230)
I think you mean Bre-X the stock that could have made any of us millionaires and then wrecked the Canadian junior mining market up to today. There is a town in Saskatchewan that has several/many millionaires who bought into it as a community entertainment.

Same thing has happened in a small town in Alberta where many have bought into the platinum/palladium potential of Flag Resources--often mentioned here in the past 2-3 years. Too bad we usually hear about these things after they have or haven't happened.

I think the Royal Oak story is well known and getting close to the end and will not make as big an impact as Bre-x. We may see next week

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:19 - ID#35757)
Y2K news
The Today show is reporting a champagne shortage. Seems that people are buying it up for the millenium celebration.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:22 - ID#288186)
Let's say, for intent purposes, that the CB's want to keep the price of gold
down. Let's also say, for example, that we are in a massive deflationary
spiral, that drives the mass of people ( and banks for that matter )
to act accordingly and even amplify this deflationary spiral.

Well, gold has always been a barometer of inflation hasn't it? If
the CB's and the Fed were seriously concerned about deflation and
the disasters that would occur from it, wouldn't they want the price
of gold to edge up higher? As the sheeple are such followers, wouldn't
they perceive that deflation is no longer a threat? Wouldn't they
perceive that we're in a balanced ( non-inflationary/non-deflationary )

So, since gold has remained subdued below the 300 level for some time
now, isn't that possibly a signal by the Fed that they're still not
concerned about deflation getting out of control? If they were, they'd
be trying to raise the price of gold ( in a controlled fashion, of course ) ,
so as to make the economy appear more inflationary than deflationary!

But now, there are new twists in today's economy. The Fed has lowered rates ( potentially inflationary ) and the dollar has been coming down.
Other forces are at work, yet, that have kept us in a low inflationary
setting. But for how long? Will this "talked about" deflationary spiral
continue until exhaustion? If it's still in our future path, wouldn't
the Fed want to "let the air out slowly", so to speak, and let gold rise?

It seems to me that gold will rise in '99 for one reason or another.
If deflation continues to take hold, the Fed would allow gold to rise, in order to stem the deflationary spiral. If inflation is soon to start heating up, then the Fed will be fighting to keep gold from rising too
quickly. Either scenerio bodes well for gold, IMHO! Of course, I'm just
thinking out loud here as I type. I don't even know if, what I said, makes any sense! I hope it does, and I welcome any comments and/or corrections. Thanks! Fox-man

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:22 - ID#333127)
Royal Oak is a thorn in my side,but I think all the downside is factored in the price. HOPEFULLY

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:23 - ID#344225)
@ MoReGoLd RE: Exploding Juniors
Strange that you would mention QTR on the day after I doubled
my stake in that little company.

Word that I got was that the holes drilled by the JV partner
in Peru were good enough to continue the drill program right
after the start of the year. Newcrest is heading back to
continue drilling. Results are supposed to come out the 6th
of January...Now if ABX & AAS has good luck, we will see a
major run.

Some GOLD BUGS are making some bucks in juniors right now.
Those who caught a ride on ARP are happy campers right now.
Also, Gold Bugs who like diamonds are miightly happy
with their profits that are coming from WSP.

CoolJing turned me on the GGO, and after doing my DD I got in
only weeks before PDG made the takeover offer.

I think the next hot one may come from QTR-T, but dont listen
to me and my hunches. Do your due dilligence.

My point in this post is that things are not all gloom & doom
in the Gold Bug camp. Not every GB has holes in his shoes
and wears threadbare suits.

I had two picks yesterday. One was QTR, and the other was
Trac Data. TracData went from 3 1/2 to 10 on 4 million shares.
All of that beforew 10:00 CT. It does pay to look at those
Internet Stocks.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:29 - ID#20359)
Let me get down to the core of it...this gold price thing...I light a candle every morning
so that all who are manipulating the price of gold die a slow...painful death and just near the end they are eaten by a snake large enough to swallow them but not too big that it does not take plenty of time so they feel the flesh melting off their feet as the digestive juices start to work...

No snake for Camdesuss hound has dibbs on him...yup...uh huh

Oh the joy of it...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:31 - ID#343259)
Charles Keeling
glad to see someone making jing in gold via GGO! I too have
QTR; ARP news today with another Amable hole loaded with
good intercepts.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:38 - ID#263254)
General...never fear
the mirror gubbmint at Mt. Weather will take over...without a hitch...
and nary a worry about y2k. And, the GAO has been told to go count
popsicle sticks elsewhere.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:47 - ID#389171)
Today:"Le Monde"french newspaper:Duisenberg doesn t want anymore to let his ECB governor seat to jc Trichet ( governor of french CB ) in 4 years.Wants to make the complete legal 8 years.
Who is Duisenberg working for?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:50 - ID#389171)
AFRICANMINER your 3h07post
What is the source of your post concerning Treasury to buy gold?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 11:52 - ID#431200)
Investor group aims to keep Bresea alive

Wednesday, December 30, 1998

Investor group aims to keep Bresea alive
With $25-million in bank, group says Bresea not insolvent

Carol Howes
Financial Post

(Wed Dec 30 1998 12:17 - ID#290456)
DRUDGE To Have Biggest Story Ever !!

Copied from a web newsgroup:

"Matt Drudge, best known for his daily Drudge
Report on the Internet, said yesterday on his WABC radio show in NYC that in two weeks he will be
revealing on his Drudge Report a story that is so
earthshaking it will be the world's biggest story
ever! He added that it has nothing to do with
politics and it will shake up the world.
You'll recall that he was the first to reveal the
Monica Lewinski story and many other stories, and
he is almost never wrong about his news flashes.
What could this story be......."


Spud Master
(Wed Dec 30 1998 12:18 - ID#273112)
@EB, the man in back ... a trifle unsettling, a trifle unsettling ...
( cough ) I have not yet begun to fright ; )

EBAY down $34 -13%
AOL down $15 -9.8%
YHOO down $22 -8%
AMZN down $21 1/2 -6%

just a correction, eh, old bean? got Shorts?

God bless stock brokers, every one!

Spud-Roland, Gunslinger...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 12:24 - ID#413307)
@ FOX-MAN: Here we are at the edge of a deflationary abyss
and the Fed continues to manipulate gold down via cheap lease
rates. One would think this strategy is counter productive,
as the Fed certainly does not want to plunge the world into
depression. So what is missing from this picture? There
is no denying the Feds campaign to depress gold. Why?

The answer is hedge funds. These financial monstrosities have
borrowed the better part of 8000 tons of gold, and they cannot
cover if gold is allowed to rise. If gold rises the funds will
default, and the linked derivative exposure will implode up
through thousands of these funds and collapse the banking system
as well. And take the USD and stock market with it.
I think the Fed will risk a depression to keep the lid on gold
and maintain the paper money system that has so enriched the
United States at the expense of the rest of the world.

The real question here is will the Europeans go along??????
All the ECB has to do is stop leasing gold. This would place
the entire burden of the gold carry on the shoulders of the
only country that stands to benefit. Notice that the short
overhang is 8000 tons plus while the United States official
gold reserves are also about 8000 tons. Could it be that the
Europeans will try to force the US to sell its gold in order
to bail out the hedge funds? ECB members would have their gold
loans covered while the United States would empty Fort Knox to
bail out the paper currency system. And the EURO would be
stronger still!!! This is exactly how gold reserves are
supposed to be used. The EURO would have no meaningful competition
as the new world reserve currency.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 12:28 - ID#348129)
@Charles Keeling
Good move on GGO ( I could never figure out what powered that stock before the merger, now I know.... )

Yes QTR is shaping up to be the classic play, I hear that the big boys from the JV's are meeting in Denver Now. Let's face it, Newcrest wouldn't be planning a major continuation of drilling in this crappy market if they didn't see something they liked. For me it will be hard to part with this one even at higher levels......

The internet share "Casino" is now playing in all the major exchanges. I would stay GLUED to my monitor if I were trading in any of these.
NOTE: For as little as $25.K, you can set up a "storefront" on the internet if you have products to sell. Competition will be fierce in this sector.....

I hope to see quality Gold shares at least partially mimic the Internet craze, during 99.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:11 - ID#410196)
Matt shakes the earth.

Oh, ho; Matt, Matt! Make the earth move!

It is in need of a good shaking just about now. How about: "The Green Backed Emperor has had no clothes since the '60's; Johnson /really did/ sell off all U.S. holdings of gold."

Let's dream, fellows.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:24 - ID#348257)
I am bullish on CRK for essentially the same reasons I am bullish on the whole energy sector - small and medium producers and service companies. This industry is now a "portfolio play." Throw a dart or two. Technically, fundamentally, and astrologically, CRK is well positioned at anywhere near or below $3. Yes, I was right on the short term bounce a while back. Now it is time to, as the brokerage houses say, "accumulate" for the long term. I look for a significant long term bull of at least 2 years and probably 5 for all resource shares. We are looking at the bottom area in many such industries - oil, copper, and, of course, our beloved gold. Central banks? We don't need no stinkin' Central Banks!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:25 - ID#286230)
Quick--More Tuna

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:27 - ID#288186)
This paragraph was pulled from the "" site.
At 7:30 a.m. EST Thursday the 11 "legacy" currencies of the
European Monetary Union will be fixed to the new currency, the euro,
which will float against the dollar and begin trading at midnight
December 31. Legacy currencies will still be traded but the most
efficient trading will be dollar/euro. On January first, 2002, the new
euro coins and bills will begin circulating, and six months later the
legacy currencies will no longer be legal tender.
Can we expect any movement in the U.S. dollar tomorrow?
How about gold? GOT GOLD?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:30 - ID#43460)
reducing government and taxes; the Irish experiance
I have no relationship with NCPA nor the nation of Ireland. No advice intended, merely repeating news. G.


Following two decades of economic stagnation and spiraling public
sector deficits, Ireland's government in 1987 charted a course of
economic liberalization said to be even more far reaching than
Margaret Thatcher's. This about-face has resulted in undreamed
prosperity and left continental European countries gasping in the

o Government spending as a percentage of gross domestic
product was cut from as high as 54 percent to 33 percent
-- compared to an average of about 50 percent for European
Monetary Union countries and 36.8 percent for the United

o Economic growth has averaged 8 percent of GDP since 1993.

o Unemployment has dropped to 7.8 percent from 16 percent --
and is expected to fall below 5 percent over the next few
years -- compared to over 10 percent in Germany and

o Ireland's top corporate tax rate has been reduced from 40
percent to 32 percent and will fall to 28 percent in April
-- while revenues from corporate taxes doubled to 3.5
percent of GDP since 1990.

Starting in 2003, the top corporate tax rate for all companies
will be 12.5 percent -- a move which reportedly sent a number of
European Union leaders into a rage. Ireland's low taxes, its
more flexible labor markets and business-friendly environment
frustrate EU governments burdened by welfare systems they can no
longer afford -- and uncompetitive economies that are left
exposed by the single currency.

Observers report that Ireland still has a lot of liberalization
left to do -- particularly in the realm of privatization. But in
a little over a decade, its policy choices have paid off
handsomely for its citizens.

Source: Therese Raphael, "Irish Economy Creates a Pot of Gold,"
Wall Street Journal, December 30, 1998.

For more on Ireland

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:56 - ID#288186)
Current prices.... Feb Gold @ 288.40 // Mar Silver @ 5.030

(Wed Dec 30 1998 13:57 - ID#347457)
Good article on the US bubble in WP
Go ahead, read it, nothing new for Kitco group, however, it's nice to see it in the major newspaper

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:03 - ID#371380)
LGB, now the congress is lying!
WASHINGTON ( AP ) - United States technology deals with China, including some with military significance, harmed national security, a House committee concluded unanimously today.

``These transfers are not limited to missile satellite technology, but cover militarily significant technology,'' said Rep. Christopher Cox, chairman of a special House committee investigating military and commercial deals with China.

``Based on unclassified information, we have found that national security harm did occur,'' he said.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:16 - ID#371380)
Gold Leasing by CB's
8000 tonnes X 32,000 ounces per tonne = 256,000 ounces

At $300/oz this equals $768 billion dollars. That would be the cost of default. If a short cover rally happens which drives the price up to $900/oz and the average price bought is ( $300 + $900 ) /2 = $600 then the CB's get back their gold and the hedge funds are out $768 billion. Of course this $768 billion in leased gold was sold and the proceeds probably put down as collateral for another $2 trillion in loans to buy up emerging market equities.

So the Central Bankers found that gold is actually money which could be created off book. With the multiplier effect, the $768 billion probably became $6 trillion in new money creation. Well good for them. Good for us now too. What will trigger the covering?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:25 - ID#30345)
256000000*300=76,800,000,000 is 76.8 billion

35000*32000*300=336,000,000,000 is 336 billion buys all the gold in all the central banks on the planet...that is if they don't get stubborn on ya.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:31 - ID#339274)
Nice ride
down the hill,small upturn coming up.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:34 - ID#30345)
nikkei stuff--
Japanese banks to prefer Euro deposits

quite a stack of yen fiat

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:41 - ID#252391)
Nothing to get excited about here
Gold price spurts, gold price fades, silver can't rally two days in a row only PD and PL manage to gain, and that I am concerned is time limited to strike activity.

Oil opens lower comes back...oil service companies like RIG steady to shares lower....

Will this be the tenor for the new year??

Notice the hit the SF and BP took today...Bonds up at the gap at 128.

One more day left and then we'll see if the end of tax loss selling and the EURO will make on iota of difference to this depressed and depressing sector. Currently the race between the oil drillers and gold miners is being won by the oil drillers butthis is a race of turtles - interesting year ahead??? or more of the same deflationary, strong dollar high tech stock rally stuff - guess we'll see..... Don't have big bets that gold will see $315 any time soon....

Re the Drudge report: He'll have to find that all the gold in Fort Knox has been leased to move this stuff and then the spin will be "how smart."

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:41 - ID#287247)
Ounces and Pounds

Aren't there only 12 Troy ounces in a pound?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:45 - ID#288466)
On a slow day - views from SOHO - Is there something strange going on?
SOHO satellite = Solar and Heliocentric Observatory

M. Drudge - Is this your earthshaking story?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:53 - ID#30345)
@summicron (Ounces and Pounds)
1lb = 453.6 grams = 14.5836 troy ozs

1000Kg= 1 metric ton = 2204.6 lbs = 32150.8 troy oz

I guess.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 14:54 - ID#339274)
covered and long 17 9/16.wouldn't go much further.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:00 - ID#249232)
Only one more day to sweat our losses
I believe a slow moving gold market will start next week. With tax loss selling ending tomorrow and the Euro becoming a reality, people will begin to invest in gold and mining shares.I look for gold mining shares to regain the full respect of investors in 1999 and to skyrocket in 2000-2002. Our time has come and you will be rewarded greatly for your patience and perseverence. Markets anticipates 6--12 months in advance and the gold market is no exception. I think the potential exist for gold mining shares to appreciate as much as 30-40 current prices. The seniors mining shares will lead,then the rest will catch up. The new Internet stocks ( gold mining shares ) will reassert their traditional role as the choice of last resort when we sink into a depression in 1999.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:06 - ID#371380)
Thanks. This is the problem with inflation. My Hewlett Packard 12C financial calculator only does to 10 digits. Billions used to be from another planet, now Bill Gates has 50 of them.

Trillions were the next out of site number to come into everyday usage. What is next? Quadrillions? I think some diamond cutter has a trademark on that.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:08 - ID#176235)
I believe the latest # is 11 Billions $.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:09 - ID#30345)
@summicron (Ounces and Pounds)
There are 12 oz in a troy pound, the other pound is avoirdupois. Of course the troy is also the same as the apothecary. What a mess.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:09 - ID#339274)
picking up speed,could become interesting.Expect one more
down draft in gold stocks today until tomorrow morning for
a triple bottom.Looking good

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:10 - ID#266105)
neither borrower nor lender be

Global credit market factoids-

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:11 - ID#30345)
What are we gonna do when they get to quadrillions? Did you checkout that yen pile posted in the nikkei?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:14 - ID#30345)
Are we are gonna have a M3Q crisis too, when the M3 reaches a quadrillion? heeheeheeheeheeee.......

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:23 - ID#246224)
You've got mail.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:37 - ID#339274)
17 3/4 sold and short

Mo in To
(Wed Dec 30 1998 15:39 - ID#347205)
The dangers of funny money
To All,
Did anyone ( here in TO ) read the National Post's Peter Foster commentary on "the dangers of funny money". He made some good points. I am trying to get an online copy to post to the group. It mentions gold, natch!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 16:06 - ID#413307)
@ Mo in TO: Season's greetings. @ all: If we make
the assumption that the present stance of the Fed in keeping
POG down is to allow hedge funds the time necessary to unwind
their short exposure of 8000 tons, perhaps we should ask of
the group the following two questions:

1. Is it possible to cover this amount of short overhang without
disturbing the markets?

2. If the answer to the above question is yes, then at the
present per diem volume of gold sales on all markets, but
particularly on the London Bullion Exchange, how
long would it take to purchase 8000 tons minimum?

I have heard that every three days the gold volume on the
LMBE equals the entire world mine production of gold. So
let's say that's about 850 tons. Let's also assume that
a 10% increase in demand to cover the short overhang can
be compensated by Fed manipulation and Swiss Gold Sales
announcements etc, then that's 85 tons per day. and that
suggests that about 100 days should unwind the short overhang.
I'm assuming that COMEX as a low volume exchange would be
used to short back down any price escalation ( a classic case of
the tail wagging the dog ) . So we have about 4 months work
to bring the gold market back into balance dated back to the
time the Fed bailed out LTCM and discovered the extent of
hedge fund exposure to the gold carry.

Comments anyone? I'm just thinking on my feet here.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 16:15 - ID#344326)
@ Silverbaron and the Earthshaking Drudge story....
The biggest story ever? My guess is he will have a story about aliens. Either that or the Second Coming of Christ. Hard to get bigger than those. Somehow it just seems better that the second coming of Christ would be foretold by the sightings of a few poor children in Italy than by the Drudge Report.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 16:18 - ID#30345)
@rhody - yep
Snipped from the World gold council weekly report shows between 1100 tonnes per day to 885 tonnes per day of the yellow. This would take all the gold for ten days or one hundred at your 10% of traffic. Yes rhody, that sounds like an interesting and intense three month effort to net long 8000 tonnes. Where does everone come by this 8000 number? And wouldn't they be doing some rollovers so that their short positions remain fairly close to market values? Also, wouldn't some ormany of these contracts be settled in currency? This unwinding will be interesting in any case....

The recent low levels of activity in the
market were reflected in the latest
clearing turnover statistics published
by the London Bullion Market
Association; during November the
average net daily clearing turnover fell
to 27.5 million ounces ( 855 tonnes ) ,
down 23% from the October average
of 35.8 million ounces ( 1,113 tonnes )
and 33% below the 40.8 million
ounces ( 1,270 tonnes ) recorded in
November 1997. The London Gold
and Silver Markets announced that as
from January 4th, 1999, Euro prices
for the twice daily gold fixings and daily
silver fixing will be published in
addition to the existing US dollar and
sterling prices. Elsewhere in Europe
Antonio de Souza, governor of the
Bank of Portugal, said that he saw no
reason to change the Banks policy of
maintaining a "substantial" part of its
reserves in gold after entering the
single currency.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 16:23 - ID#227238)
Aliens arriving in the nick of time ...... to aid in the remediation of y2k problems, no doubt.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:28 - ID#411440)
@longj: The funds are probably doing some rollovers,
but this does not get them out of the short overhang, and when
you lease gold from a CB, they want gold plus gold interest back
at the end of lease, not just currency. If the gold carry
does unwind, expect an explosive increase in one month lease
rates as funds attempt to rollover there leases, and expect
some of the rollovers to be for longer lease periods of
3 and 5 and one year. All the lease rates will spike across
the board.

How do I know this? It's what happen when W. Buffett upset the
silver carry cart when he bought his 129 million oz back in '97.
A spike in one month leases means AG and the boys are going to
short gold, but a spike right across the board means they are
losing control of POG, ( and the world financial system ) .

Have a nice day. Rhody

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:30 - ID#425381)
Drudge Report--Second Coming
Be assured when HE comes back everyone will know it simultaneously.According to NT, ancient Tradition, plus writings of Church Fathers--one may be absolutely certain Christ hasn't come back if someone tells you they saw Him!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:32 - ID#280246)
Thanks for the specific corrections. 14.5836 Troy oz/lb. Handy number to remember.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:32 - ID#190411)
I do believe that this as slow a day,
as I have ever seen on K1.
I posted on a source of sovereign equivalent coins. They are tapped out, but do have nice sov's at 8% over spot on 100 pc.
Earl, if the aliens are coming, then, they will obviously team up with the CB's to show the masses of dullards, such as we, the new and nifty money system that they have developed, based on synthetic cellulose.
I wish someone would post something that's really insensitive, so we can , at least start hurling them epithets.
Aurator, send me your receiving address so that I can send you a Colombian 5 peso for your collection; assuming that you don't have one already.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:35 - ID#391172)
$ 10.00
Wife going thru "stuff" found a Federal Reserve $10.00 bill which says payable on demand in gold at US treasury. They wirth anything?

We are due for a new era, humans are fractionalized, frictionalized, and all so certain. Ne pas toujour le meme chose.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:38 - ID#249232)
Mining shares ownership by mutual funds,pension funds and banks is very low
With public rampant pessimism on ownership of gold and mining shares, most of the shares are owned by people who will not sell unless they receive very high price for their shares. Mutual funds have been reducing their gold share holdings. In examining the gold chart I find that stochastic are around 20 or so. The shares are extremely oversold and ready for a substantial bounce. This is very bullish for mining shares.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:49 - ID#347167)
slow is as slow does
Bulls -- 10, actually -- to stampede on Wall Street

( I can hardly wait ; )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:50 - ID#30345)
Actually, I think that the 10% factor is really too optimistic. Most of the volume in London probably amounts to a shuffle with only a small net one way or another. 10% actual movement would likely be very disruptive. With that said, someone would have to intervene to prevent the disruption....hmmm where have I heard that phrase before. Standing at the ready. Well thats what the fiat guys get for messing around with someone elses real money....A Happy new year indeeded to you rhody.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:50 - ID#190411)
Here's a wierd one for you.
I am selling a property, and would like to guarantee a currency stability into the next three years. I am unwilling to take payment in fiat, yet it is diffucult to structure anything else. If paper collapses, I'd like some insurance.
I suppose that it could be denominated in a harder currency than the USD, but, what? Oil? gold? SFR? SDR?
What currency is predictable for a short, three years? It is no wonder that the derivative trade has exploded with the ascendancy of the paper currencies.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 17:57 - ID#43460)
ERLE re property sales
One might suggest a lawyer for this one. Not meaning to belittle myself and the other Kitcoites, but our advice is worth the paper it is printed on. As for me ( and not advice for you at all, please remember ) when I sold my farm some years ago I got a cashiers check from the buyers bank, which I converted to stocks, bonds, gold stocks, a hefty check to the IRS and a car for my wife within about 4 weeks. I just happened to choose a good 4 weeks when the world didn't end! Well maybe not that good as if the world had ended the IRS would not have had the pleasure of spending my payment on Cuban cigars and Big Macs for El Presidente.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 18:06 - ID#251181)
We don't need no steekin' Intergallactic Drive

It will soon be revealed that Greenspan is from Rigel, Soros is from Bellatrix, Rockefeller from Aldebaran and Camdessus from Betelguese. The Sun Dancer spaceship, whose imminent arrival Drudge is preparing to report, is a transporter, not a warship. The Sun Dancer will arrive soon to pick up the entire global supply of gold held by the CB's.

History will show that the Rosswell incident did happen. But, in a dreadful gallactic faux pas, those butchers did an illegal operation on a live alien from Sirius, not a dead alien from Disneyland. To make matter worse, the alien was an ambassador to earth on a secret trade mission to assay how much gold earthmen might be willing to exchange for an intergallactic drive. Gold is used both to prolong life and as a rocket fuel for the intergallactic drive out there.

The aliens were real pissed both because their ambassador was cut up live, and because the camera work of the autopsy was so poor. This poor camera work meant that noone on earth in their right mind believes theres such a thing as an alien. Its one thing to be Santa Clause, but if noone believes you exist, life become real embarrasing sometimes, and you lose your bargaining position. I mean, whos gonna argue with Santa Clause? So the aliens decided to come down to this part of the Spiral Arm and bomb the earth into space dust, just to show us ungrateful pesky pink squashy human beans who is de boss. Klinton didnt invent this kind of gunboat diplomacy; others can do it far better.

However before his autopsy, the ambassador had already relayed back to GCHQ the fact there were several stock piles of gold collected on earth, the most notable at Fort Knox. Bombing the earth is expensive, and, as everyone knows, gold smooths the rough paths of diplomacy. Give us your gold and we wont blow you to smithereens, said the aliens. Between them, the United States of Aliens and the USA pretender gobmint, hit upon a cunning plan to collect all the gold in one place, and hand it to the aliens by way of Tribute. In this way the earth could be saved. So several aliens came to live among us, those mentioned in the first paragraph, but a few. They schemed for 40 years to gather all the gold in one place awaiting the Sun Dancer and its Tractor Beam. Thats what all this manipulation of the POG is about. From Bretton Woods to the end of the Gold Standard. From the closure of the gold window to the imminent Euro. Its all a method of concentrating gold into one or two discrete places.

And thats what Drudge is gonna announce. We gotta give up all our gold to save the world, a modern Danegeld.

Buy your commemorative coins today for the last day of a discount ( now how the heck to I get a cheque to merka today? ) :- )
Commemorative Alien Coins
Commemorative coins cast in pure silver and copper to mark the 50th
anniversary of the famous "Roswell Incident" 1947 UFO Crash. Perfect for the serious collector or memorabilia enthusiast!

Kewl! Okay, do we have an intermediary we can do this through? Perhaps Bart could pass on my email and physical address, what say you?
{Is this contentious enough?} ;-}

(Wed Dec 30 1998 18:06 - ID#29048)
You have found an old gold certificate. It has some collector value. Check out the auctions at One 1928 gold certificate has been bid up to 43 bucks.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 18:08 - ID#252150)
JP@POG made it's low in sept. about the same time as the equity mkts.
If the equity mkts tank again, and I think they will within 60 days when Brazil devalues, don't you expect POG to once again tank?

I can't share your confidence in POG. In a deflationary world POG will go nowhere but down except for brief counter rallies, IMO. If it approaches 300 producers & CBs will sell. If the Dow gets well below 7400, I would expect POG to make a new low, possibly as low as 260. Although the USD will probably come under pressure because of Jap repat, etc., it will still be considered the srongest & safest currency by far. I just can't see investors panicking out of the USD into AU, at least not in the forseeable future.

We will see what transpires as we collectively hurtle through the cosmos into a new millenia.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 18:11 - ID#337404)
Platinum Steps to the Plate

The metals are looking for a leader.....platinum is trying. From 348 to 363.9 this week!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:17 - ID#411440)
@ longj: Best wishes for a safe new year.
Perhaps you are correct. A 10% increase in demand might cause
too much of a positive move in POG. Fifty tons during an
average day of say 1200 tons might be OK, especially if they can
short into a thin market in New York ( which is what has been
happening since mid Dec. ) to drive the spot price back down.
But what you are saying is this would not work, and the short
overhang is impossible to cover. I agree. To work off the
overhang, you would have to get hundreds of hedge funds to
cooperate to slowly buy back the gold, never exceeding 50 to 80
tons per day, and then use some of that to short back the COMEX
market. Given human nature, someone would get greedy and
buy out their position, and that would set off the short covering
frenzy that AG fears. Some would try to roll over their positions
by re-leasing at the 3 month, or 6 and 9 month rates, but this
would spike those lease rates, and just postpone the inevitable
for 3 to 9 months. I think the CBs would catch on that these
guys were just rolling over their positions because they couldn't
cover, and refuse to lend. End of story.

If AG couldn't see a way out of this box, how can we mere
mortals? Unless AG intends to drive the world into depression.
Then gold sinks to $200 and the funds cover at their leisure
over the next 3 years.

I just got your Xmas card Bart. Thank you.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:24 - ID#344326)
Great post. Was that off the cuff or have you been thinking about this for a while? Where's Ziva?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:33 - ID#286230)
Mo in To; & All
Hi Mo. Bit nippy here in TO.

I'd like to hear the recommendations for penny or almost penny PM stocks that will likely last for 12-24 months at current prices.

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:34 - ID#348257)
somesing ees steekin' in Denmark

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:35 - ID#348257)
an joo weel fine

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:36 - ID#348257)
steek aroun'

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:37 - ID#50148)
Traditional New Years weather.... Can you hit a wind chill of -100F ?

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:37 - ID#348257)
steek an eggs

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:37 - ID#190411)
You stinking New Zealot types have been courting the aliens for centuries. As evidence, I site the kiwi.
It is obviously a failed attempt of the aliens to cross their genes with your huggable sheep.
We'll work out something, give me a line

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:38 - ID#348257)
speek sofly an carry a beeg steek

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:44 - ID#153110)
@When, I wonder, was soon ?
ROBERT HEMPHILL ( Credit Manager of Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta, Ga. ) :
"This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the
commercial Banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in
circulation, cash or credit. If the Banks create ample synthetic money
we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a
permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture,
the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but
there it is. It is the most important subject intelligent persons can
investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present
civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the
defects remedied very soon".

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:45 - ID#190411)
New Hampshire motto:
Live Free or Die. Free/Freeze and die?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:46 - ID#190411)
mozel, That's a powerful comment.
When was it made?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:49 - ID#43460)
Bearish key reversal?
Slow night. Even Kaplan sounds exhausted. I think Im going to bed early. Do you ever wonder if bears have to get up to go to the bathroom while theyre hybernating?

Mike Sheller
(Wed Dec 30 1998 19:55 - ID#348257)
how fascinating that this is the subject, in effect and in essence, that Kitcoites chew on every single day.

We must be intelligent.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:13 - ID#219363)
@Mike Sheller
Interesting call on oil, I wasn't around for last year's prediction on the dark syrup. Sticky, I wouldn't want to take a chance on catching that one on the way down, though there have been a lot of rigs have been taken off-line ( near decade lows or something ) . I wish you did regular horoscopes *grin*, I could use one.

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:13 - ID#344225)
@ rhody RE: The AG dilema
It is really rather simple. AG is simply stalling
until his retirement. Then this insurmountable problem
belongs to someone else. Why do you think RR wants to be
the first one out? It is a race to the finish line, and
who ever is left gets to hold the bag.

Hopefully RR & AG both opt out and hand this smelly bag to
the rightful owner: Bill Clinton. All---coming soon to a
market that has asked for it in mid 1999.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:23 - ID#190411)
I think that I will kill myself out of boredom.
I was dumping old bookmarks, and ran across a good call. ( see at bottom of article. ) There are some per-cent comparisons for the eurocon-sortium.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:24 - ID#219363)
U.S. Banks Immune to Russia Default
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Russia's default on $26 billion in Soviet-era debt to commercial banks worldwide this week won't sting top U.S. banks further since most wrote off their Russian debts months ago, economists said Wednesday. But the move gives banks an even stronger case for denying crucial new loans to help rouse the country from its crisis, analysts and economists in London and New York said. "Any U.S. bank is going to be extremely cautious about getting involved with Russia in the near future," said James J. McDermott, chairman of banking analysts Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York. "Russia is persona non grata as a borrower." Russia failed Tuesday to make a $363 million cash interest payment on $26 billion worth of Soviet-era loans that must be repaid to more than 600 commercial creditors worldwide.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:28 - ID#219363)
U.S. Economy Leaves Mysteries
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Not that it will put a damper on parties over the next day or so, but it should be noted that the U.S. economy closes out the year leaving behind two great mysteries. The first concerns the amazingly spendthrift proclivities of Americans throughout the year. The second mystery relates to the equally amazing eagerness of corporations to acquire or merge with each other.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:31 - ID#190411)
More news from my barking dogs.
This time PDG.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:31 - ID#219363)
Shamans Make Predictions on Clinton
LIMA, Peru ( AP ) -- President Clinton will survive the sex scandal hounding him and serve out his full term, Andean soothsayers predicted Wednesday. The shamans, descendants of the mighty Inca empire that once ruled Peru, said they based their predictions on visions brought on by drinking a brew made from a jungle vine, a hallucinogen they say has curative, religious and extrasensory powers.
Apologies, it just had to be posted.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:44 - ID#26793)
Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.26. The 233 day moving average is 29.50

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:45 - ID#190411)
Envy, and the cheery news of 20:24
What you should have said:
US banks said in a co-ordinated statement, said "We don't give a sh!t about the Russian and Soviet loan losses."
"Noted international financier, Mr. Rubinrubin Rubitinyourface told reporters that the bank losses have been covered by 'fatass taxpayers', so there is no systemic risk to the banking system."

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:45 - ID#26793)
XAU/Spot Ratio = .221. The 233 day moving average is .247

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:46 - ID#153110)
@ERLE @Sheller
ERLE, I don't know the date of utterance. Must have been some time ago in the era before statements by people in high position became public relations flak.

Sheeler Intelligent enough not to feel invulnerable as a member of a galloping herd, at least.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:46 - ID#258142)
Envy, 20:24 Mysterious Russian soul
All nations pretend to be smart. Other way around with Russia. Sometimes helps a lot

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:53 - ID#252391)
What amazes me...
Is that with all this gold leasing stuff spread around here on KITCO, most of it assumed or believed from the likes of Murphy and his buddy Varresco ( sp ) , it is never discussed anywhere else other than gold pages who picked it up here. If there was such an incredable problem one would think we'd hear about it from some discrunteled CB employee with a tape recorder.

Maybe the fund short position is not so large, maybe the CB's haven't lent so much gold??? I think the arguement that there is this huge overhang short position is based on some pretty flimsy evidence.

It may also be that the funds have been covering and that their activity has supported an otherwise very weak market.

Has anybody ever talked to or heard of a person who has leased gold and sold it into the market. ????

Is our bullish arguement a hoax????? The evidence is all indirect, inference and stories told by people with long positions like Veneressco ( excuse my spelling ) . I've seen a stock certificate, I've seen a loan agreement, does anybody know has anybody seen tangible evidence of a gold loan/lease.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:57 - ID#290456)
mozel @ McNab Law

You are obviously closer to the U.S. legal system than anyone else I know.....Have you ever heard of a law ( known as the McNab Law ) which relates to the extra-Constitutional control of individual citizens ( and groups of citizens ) under certain circumstances? I have a Federal Government reference to this law dating from the 1950's.

Mo in To
(Wed Dec 30 1998 20:58 - ID#347205)
The National Post Article or
To All,
I just flew ( typed ) in from Toronto and boy! are my fingers tired!!!

The Dangers of Funny Money From National Post -December 30, 1998
By Peter Foster

There was a headline the other day that read: "Russia ready to print $1.2 billion in rubles." It should have said "Russia to print ten-or a hundred, or whatever-billion rubles with zero value."

People have always confused money and wealth. One of the most prevalent pieces of economic ignorance is that you can create wealth by simply boosting the money supply. Russia's action, of course, amounts to a systematic robbing of all those with existing rubles of part of those rubles' value. But the country's suicidal actions also confirm an age-old lesson: that since King Croesus' face was first stamped on a piece of gold, government involvement with money has been at best a mixed blessing, at worst, a disaster.

It didn't take long in the ancient world for coin-manufacturing rulers-who were always hard up for case to wage a war or build a Coliseum-to start making lighter and lighter coins, or else mixing in base metals, so that they could pocket "spare" precious metals for themselves. Under Gresham's law, this drove "good" money out of circulation and inevitably damaged trade. Indeed, the Emperor Nero's most negligent action was to fiddle with the currency and thus precipitate the decline of the Roman Empire. Sound money and economic development then disappeared into the Dark Ages.

Increased efficiencies in agriculture and the growth of towns as trade centres in mediaeval times led to a resurgence in the use of money to grease the wheels of commerce. It also led to a reappearance of debasement under free-spending monarchs such as Henry VIII.

The invention of paper money-which originated as a "promise to pay" a certain amount of real money, that is, precious metal coins-opened up vast new vistas of abuse, particularly after the invention of the printing press.

Benjamin Franklin inspired the other leaders of the American Revolution to pay for the War of Independence with paper money called "Continentals". America won the war, but lost the currency when it couldn't stop the presses. This led to the phrase: "Not worth a Continental." Similarly, the leaders of the French Revolution printed assignats by the billion until they were worthless ( although the British may have forged them in order to hasten their old enemy's decline ) .

In the 19th Century, Britain became the model of monetary stability by anchoring the pound sterling to a fixed amount of gold, a scarce natural resource. The gold standard was adopted by other nations and heralded a period of unprecedented stability and prosperity. A new monetary form-bank deposits-also took over in importance from coins and paper.

The 20th Century brought an abandonment of the gold standard and bouts of inflation as government ran printing presses, then boosted bank credit, to finance wars and buy votes. A new word was added to the monetary dictionary: hyperinflation.

A de facto dollar/gold standard-which emerged after the Second World War-was abandoned in 1971 by Richard Nixon. The world moved to floating exchange rates, and to periodic currency crises as countries sought to "defend" their currencies against alleged "attack" by currency dealers. In fact, in most cases they were trying to defend the indefensible. Currencies became weak because of inflationary domestic policies. To seek to defend the currency rather than to reform the policies was to treat symptoms rather than causes.

One key aspect of the market-based revolutions that took place in the West in the 1980's was the re-emphasis on sound money, and the widespread acceptance of Milton Friedman's dictum that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

Independent central banks have been one form in which governments have acknowledged that they couldn't trust themselves with money. Yet another has been to tie their currencies to stronger ones, primarily the dollar and the deutschmark.

The euro-due to come into existence at the end of this week as a currency shared by 11 European nations- is a variant of this form, an effective deutschmark-writ-large. The danger, however, is that the new European Central Bank may come under pressure from left wing governments in France and Germany who want to play the funny money game. However, any such tendency will be ameliorated by a powerful new stimulus to monetary honesty; the electronic revolution.

The ability to transmit large of money digitally is frequently being bemoaned by statists as a destabilizing force. In fact, it is the reverse. As Walter Wriston, former chairman of Citibank/Citicorp has said, "What annoys governments about stateless money is that it functions as a plebisicite on your policyif your currency becomes worthless, the world knows about it very quickly. If your economic policies are lousy, the market will punish you instantly."

That's what happened in Russia in August. Despite all the wailing about currency speculators, digital and stateless money represents-as Wriston noted-a form of economic democracy of which we should all be in favour.

Well, that's the article, any comments?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:01 - ID#20359)
jims, Namaste' gulp and a puff to you...Veneroso has a web site...I suggest you write
to him directly and ask him to provide proof of such and end the mystery for all of loans and they exist?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:03 - ID#249232)
Oil price
I had lunch today with a friend who is a senior VP at Chevron corp. he confirmed that Chevron needs $15 per bbl to break even on oil production worldwide. They are losing their shirt on oil but making it up on natural gas, gasoline sales and chemicals. Over all,unless oil price rises, their profitability will decline rapidly. In 1999,he predicted massive consolidation in the oil industry and massive layoff's.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:03 - ID#295111)
BUBBLE according to Bill Fleckenstein......

Bubble gets bigger...

However, that has absolutely nothing to do with the gigantic speculative party going on in the stock market these days. I think it's interesting to note since the Fed's inter-meeting ease, the S&Ps are up about 25 percent and the bond market's mostly unchanged. So all the Fed managed to do was re-inflate the bubble.

I find it most remarkable that a year ago a few of us were calling this a
bubble, and now even the Fed knows it has a bubble. But it would
rather risk enlarging the bubble than dealing with the ramifications.
Obviously in the Fed's mind the business cycle and the stock market
decline can be held off forever. Obviously it can be held off for some
time, and for a longer time than most sane people would imagine. But it
can't be pushed back forever, and when the chickens do come home
to roost it obviously will be that much worse.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:07 - ID#227238)
All 'dis jive tok 'bout gold 'n markets 'n leasing 'n money don' mean sheeet man. Dem two Sun Cruisers be on dere way here right now 'n dey be meanin' to be kickin' some butt. 'N da damm gubmint done turned off the look see thing so we can't tell when dey be a landin'. ..... It be way past time ta manipalate sompin besides our own cranks 'n begin grabbin' some folks by da scruff a da neck. Fer shur.

Git yerself some galactic gold, galactic grub, ...... 'n a course some galactic guns.

Mo in To
(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:10 - ID#347205)
And a Happy New Year to All
Selby et al,
And to all on this site, a healthy and happy New Year from up here in the nippy north! Aurator, I love your posts, you are so witty! Your UFO theorum is as good as any I have heard. As for the rest of you, I have learned more on this website than on any other ( and I do cruise around a bit ) All the best.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:18 - ID#251181)
We don't need no stinkin' quotes..
That post was actually automatic writing: a sub-ther cosmic mind-meld between some green/grey alien and mois. Sorry for the delay in replying, just been for lunch on the harbour, we ate the biggest sea food platter I've ever seen, didn't finish it actually, so had to take a long walk around the hot Auckland waterfront {Auckland is, after all, known as The City of Sails} to try to get in shape for tonight's festivities. An old friend is returning from Stralia to play Auckland's Casino tonite {New Year's Eve}, and it looks like an opportunity for a reunion of old cronies.

message on way soon.

Mike SHeller
I guess you know which film has "We don't need no stinkin' badge" in it. And I still haven't found it here. {ANOTHER clue: it is crusty's favourite {?} fillum}

For us, 1999 ends in 8.5 hours.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:19 - ID#252150)
It's pretty obvious that Fleck
used obviously multi times in his latest. A lack of imagination?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:24 - ID#242325)
For the Records Sueing the Fed CHAIRMAM!


This is becoming serious!

I WANT TO BE THE FIRTS ON THE LIST for this unlawfull behaviour!!!!!!!!!

Oliver ( Crazytimes Your 1:45 Post is the one to READ ! )
Copyright  1998 Oliver/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Thank you,

NOW...! I know what I had been missing,and see my guts feelings where right on :

Here is the heart of the matter on the GOLD Price Manipulation in this not so free market!....Quote:

( ( ( ( Fed Chairman Greenspan said that he would control the gold market if he had to. He
spelled it out on July 24 in little-noticed testimony before the House Banking Committee. The chairman was trying
to downplay the risk that some derivative contracts might produce a squeeze on short sellers.

He explained that there was no danger that the supply of oil to fulfill derivative contracts could be restricted. Then,

he added, 'Nor can private counterparts restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often
traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price
rise.' ) ) ) )

Thanks Crazytimes.....I want to sue the Chairman for my big losts...@!#
before TSHTF!

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:25 - ID#295111)
I still question if physical gold changes hands with all this leasing. If physical doesn't move around, then I guess it's quite easy to fix the POG. Maybe you can ask Murphy this as well ... I'm too shy.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:25 - ID#257312)
Tantalus Rex 21:03

That seems to be the theme of this evening's
seminar at the Kitco Bar & Grill. Yep, the
bubble is certainly larger and more dangerous than it was a year ago. It was even larger a
year ago than it was at the time that Alan
Greenspan made his infamous "irrational
exuberance" remark. I think Charles Keeling's post @ 20:13 explains the reasons for this clearly and accurately.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:26 - ID#242325)
Chairmam= FED chairman

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:30 - ID#251181)
dees legs 'ere
Mike Sheller
I can be very dim sometimes. Steek around . Steek and you will find. ROFL. How about:

I steek therefore I barbecue
Feminine mis-steek
We don't need no steekin' steeks.

Get Real: Get Gold.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:32 - ID#401460)
Kitco still a mess from this side.

"NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Russia's default on $26 billion in Soviet-era debt to commercial banks worldwide this week won't sting top U.S. banks further since most wrote off their Russian debts
months ago, economists said Wednesday."

Just write it off, what the heck!


12/30/98 -- 1:16 PM

Police catch robbery suspect red-handed

WILMINGTON, Del. ( AP ) - A bank robbery suspect was literally caught red-handed
after giving a friendly wave to a police officer.

A man robbed a bank Tuesday and fled on a bicycle, abandoning it after a dye inserted with the money exploded, police said.

Minutes later, police arrested Cawayne Brown after he stepped from an apartment
building vestibule and waved to a police officer he knew.

``The officer noticed his hands were fluorescent orange and just put two and two
together,'' Lt. Sean Finerty said.

``If he would have gone about his business, the cop car would have gone right past him. This guy was having just the worst day.''

The suspect, with the proceeds from the robbery, had just bought gold earlier that morning, and it was already down a buck and a half by the time of his arrest.


Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:34 - ID#295111)
I re-read Charles Keeling's post and totally agree with Chuck. I've said it before here at Kitco and will say it again.

Bill Clinton has sacrficed short term prosperity for LONG TERM DISASTER.

All because BC is a real selfish guy. A real selfish guy who will lie at all costs to satisfy his Bubble-Headed-Ego.

It's sad that most Americans don't see it ( and if those merkans do know then maybe most of them are selfish as well )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:39 - ID#242325)
Tortfeeser where are you?
I need a very good attorney for this unlawfull behaviour in this FREE MARKET ....!!
Or tell me it is no more a free market....OUTRIGHT!!!

And the the game is OVER...!!!!!!!!!

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:45 - ID#20359)
America has exactly what she deserves...and it is going to get worse..much worse...
MARTIN SCHRAM: The president has lost it

Copyright  1998 Nando Media
Copyright  1998 Scripps Howard News Service

( December 30, 1998 4:00 a.m. EST ) - We hold these media truths to be self-evident: The most insightful interviews are often the briefest. The most revealing ( see also: damaging ) questions, often the most obvious.

And that's the way it was in the State Dining Room of the White House on Sunday Dec. 20, when President Clinton threw a holiday party for some friends - and wound up face-to-face with a journalist. Los Angeles Times correspondent Elizabeth Shogren, whom the president knows as a working journalist, had been invited as the guest of one of the president's pals.

But she had the good sense to remember her career calling. So she asked the obvious:

How does it feel to be impeached? "Not bad," replied President William Jefferson Clinton, the first elected president ever to be impeached by the House. ( Also impeached was the never-elected Andrew Johnson, who had been Abe Lincoln's unpopular vice president at the time of the assassination. )

Not bad? Not bad! This is not something minor or trivial; it is major, perhaps even serious. It is not just evidence of yet another president who is out of touch; it is evidence of a president who is in dangerous denial.

President Clinton, who came to office saying he could feel our pain, apparently can no longer feel his own.

Through the instant-news wonders of the Internet, Shogren's story began ricocheting through the power corridors of Washington even before it hit the streets in Los Angeles. And every time the story was repeated, the response was the same: It began with surprise and disgust, then quickly evolved into fury or despair.

And that was just from the president's fellow Democrats. Remember: House Democrats had just argued in vain that censure was condemnation so serious and painful that it was punishment aplenty for the lies the president told under oath about his private sex life. Now Senate Democrats were arguing that the House impeachment vote was punishment aplenty, and the Senate should vote to censure but not convict and evict.

And here was the president saying that this first-ever condemnation by impeachment was, well, really not bad at all. Just what does he think Democrats working to save his ebullience-stained presidency are going to be able to do with that?

He also went on to say, according to Shogren's article, that he believes that in 10 or 20 years his presidency will be positively judged. He does not think historians will give undue weight to his impeachment when they assess his presidency. Also, bursting with joviality as he partied with his friends in this dark hour of his presidency, Clinton was reported by Shogren to have laughed about the fact that porn magazine publisher Larry Flynt had become a big influence in this tawdry business of politics and impeachment; it was Flynt's cash-for-trash investigation that forced Rep. Bob Livingston, R-La., to renounce the speakership and say he will resign from Congress.

"Clinton regaled his listeners with a description of a letter that Flynt wrote to Independent Counsel Kenneth W. Starr ... congratulating Starr for aiding the cause of pornography," Shogren reported.

Deck the halls: Only from Bill Clinton, ever the jovial holiday host, can we discover the merry side of the impeachment of a president. Unlit by TV lights, he confides to friends that being impeached is not bad. But if he is told by his advisers or elves that he has not appeared contrite enough, well, then turn on the TV lights and he'll do contrition. Or, he'll perform an apologia for having given in to his shame. Even if it turns out he has none to give into.

In Washington I have met people who used to serve as President Clinton's top level advisers who now say privately that if they were in Congress, they'd probably vote to impeach their ex-boss. And convict him. And remove him from the exalted office in which he is now entitled to sit.

There is perhaps just one remaining good case for not reaching for the hook - right now! It is made by Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Democratic elder statesman from New York: We need to preserve the presidency from future peril of easy, politically motivated impeachment.

Unfortunately, that leaves us with no good way out of today's dilemma: We need to save the presidency from a stricken president who may now be truly incapacitated. We cannot ignore the evidence. President Clinton has been stricken politically tone deaf and mainly, irreversibly dumb.

Martin Schram writes a weekly column that focuses on the intersection of the news media, policy and politics.

Tantalus Rex
(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:47 - ID#295111)
Ciao, see you next year.
I wish you all a Happy New Year.

A special thanks to Bart for all the keeping this site the best chat line on the web.

My prediction for POG next year is $200 ( I'll try reverse psychology, failing that, I'll have to ask Mike Sheller for the latest star charts )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:53 - ID#300202)
says I'm havin' more sex than anyone in Canada-ain't no C.B. gonna manipulate dat. Happy New Year all. It's been a slice. Gone to bed to prove Atlantic Canada manhood.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:54 - ID#237260)
Question to ponder for the evening! As we know the Euro begins in a couple days
and it has ( smartly ) backed at least a portion of its worth to Gold. Don't you think it behooved thsm to keep Gold's price low so that the Euro would fare better when the price began to rise after it's start?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:54 - ID#252150)
Greenspam has cost a lot of us. I'm quite sure that he cost me many 1000s
when he eased between meetings & my tech shorts blew up on me. He basically gave the green light to the longs by implying that he'll always be there to bail them out.
I still maintain that he'll go down in history as the worst Fed Chairman ever.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 21:55 - ID#190411)
aurator, you time travelin' alien lover.
Will you please report to the rest of us about the Y2K problems that you encounter on your drunken debauch tonight?
aurator's last line of his 21:18.....
"For us, 1999 ends in 8.5 hours."

Charles Keeling
(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:00 - ID#344225)
@ The Scene RE: : "The Little General"
He is a fumbling, bumbling, senile old man who recently married a younger woman and has been subjected to the influence of the most evil and corrupt regime ever to be in control of the Untied States Government.

This old fool, who has sold his soul in order to maintain the stock market status quo, is soon to retire.

He was "sandwiched" between Hillary and Tipper at the state of the union message while wearing his penguin suit. This was a signal with great meaning to all.

RR desperately wants out before this senile old fart retires, because he is sick and tired of signing those checks to buy S & P futures. RR is very concerned that he may be the one who in the end is holding the bag for the boy wonder. In this case, it does take two to
manipulate a market.

While he was fighting inflation and raising interest rates, deflation slowly surrounded him and caught him completely off guard.

His "old friend" GOLD was signaling desperately that inflation was NOT the problem, still he raised interest rates to fight the invisible ghost of inflation.

During Hawkins testimony he stated: "There is something puzzling about derivatives". It was left there during the following years of the Gold Carry trade.

He dozed comfortably, asleep at the helm, while Hedge Funds borrowed billions from the CB's at ridiculously low rates that would be used for highly speculative purposes. The hedge funds leveraged those loans to the maximum and gambled with reckless abandon while secure in the knowledge that should the worst happen, they would be bailed out.

When those leveraged "bets" went sour he arranged a temporary bail out so
that the "chickens would come home to roost" AFTER his retirement.
Then, to further postpone the day of RECKONING, he lowered interest rates
three times in succession as the "bubble" in the economy expanded.

Now that GOLD is out of the CB'S, he engages in market manipulaltion to
control the POG until the shorts can cover.

He is living proof that when blood leaves the brain and travels to the extremities, it leaves the "little general" in full command. Strange thing: WJC has the same problem.

Who dat?

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:01 - ID#261352)

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:02 - ID#261352)

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:03 - ID#300202)
Use Hogtown lawyer Eddie Greenspan. May as well use meme chose name. He got Gerald Regan off didn't he.

Bill El Zebub
(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:03 - ID#261352)

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:11 - ID#242325)
By the way..............ONE...DAY...!
Airline insurers have agreed to insure Canadian flights for Jan. 1, 2000 -- one day.:::Confidence is ..NOT KING there.......

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:22 - ID#242325)
Caper thank you I WILL*****!
But what a shame...

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:22 - ID#20767)
Oldman @ Avid Trader .............
oleman . . Wed, Dec 30, 7:21PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
just in for a minute. got company. The smartest people i know are permabears. i've said that many times here. g9, you are very smart. But you are wrong. Not wrong about the destination, but wrong on timing. There will be no big sell with Klinton's troubles unsolved. When the Senate absollves him, there'll be a serious sell. How serious depends on how well it is controlled before that happens. To gamble real molney on a serious dip when Slick is facing the Senate vote, is to turn a blind eye on the decade. This is Slick Willie's bull mkt. Dont bet against Slick. Wait til late Jan or early Feb when his troubles will be over, then sell this thing. bbnafew.

oleman . . Wed, Dec 30, 7:28PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
gully: I always knew it was Slick Willie's bull mkt, but i didnt really understand it until topx enlightened me some months ago.

oleman . . Wed, Dec 30, 7:30PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
gullly: the key is simple: In the land of Slick Willie, everything's a FADE. Nothing is really what it appears to be. Ergo, once he's out of the woods, the Boyz will unwind.: ) oohfaw..............

mitstop1 . . Wed, Dec 30, 8:40PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
oleman: your 7:30 put chills on my spine. I've been watching Clinton since January do and say everything that is almost the exact opposite of what is expected, right down to impeachment vote day where he came out on the lawn of the rose garden and in so many words said he will fight for his right to commit perjury and obstruction as 'our' President. He is a fade isn't he. That's the one word I was looking for to sum it up- the dang guy is a complete and utter fade. Although for political purposes of discussion with FOB's I been prefereing to point out how Wall street, everytime the President takes another step closer to being removed from office, The market rallies into that day or news- they just hate it when it actually happens: ) Never fade a fade: ) .

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:30 - ID#251181)
Yar, it's time for a post-prandial kip. I meant, of course, 1998 ends in, now 7.5 hrs. We are expecting Y2K problems in the Casino tonight. Perhaps I'll do a rumplestiltskin and sleep for a year.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:47 - ID#257312)
Starr Wars Update-- Fall Guys

Senate majority leader Trent Lott of Mississippi looks like he could be the next fall guy, ala de Guzman. You remember him, that geologist who jumped ( ? ) out of the helicopter just prior to the crash and burn of Bre-X? The good Senator may have cast his lot with the Democrats in trying to bypass a real trial in the Senate. This is threatening to split the GOP wide open. The "right wing" of the Republican party is now calling for Trent Lott's head. Heh heh! They are threatening to abandon the party, and too bad if the Democrats win. Prediction-- Lott will take a fall. He will shut his mouth, possibly resign, and there will be a full and gut wrenching trial in the Senate.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:49 - ID#261322)
Kapex- POG, and the Euro
Considerate as it sounds, I doubt that the intention in keeping the POG low, is to help the Euro launch. If that were to happen, then the credit would happily be taken. More likely, is that the POG has been held low, to keep the party going in the markets. Certainly recently, the POG was held down due to massive short positions of the hedge funds, imagine what would happen to the POG if some of the contracts were forced to cover. What I find amusing is that in allowing short positions in gold to cover slowly with a held down price, and saving these funds, interest rates are also lower ( perhaps partially due to the Euro ) and the market stock market bubble has inflated further. The USD is coming down slowly, and it has to to keep the market propped up ( foreigners will hopefully then still be able to afford US assets, if the are relatively cheaper ) , and this is neccessary because of the massive trade imbalance. Somewhere, something has got to give. Unfortunately, I just can't believe that with some pretty massive problems about to explode, the Fed is keeping the POG down for any reasons other than hopefully a slightly smoother landing in at least one respect.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:53 - ID#411251)
This doesn't sound good----For gold.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 22:59 - ID#263133)
All these Gold prognostications of Gold going to $1,000 or $5,000 or of Gold stocks increasing 30 - 40 times reminds me of an old joke:
The pigeon family was discussing upcoming migration. The father pigeon says, "My instincts tell me to go North" to which the mother pigeon replys, "My instincts tell me to go South." The baby pigeon, perplexed with it all, says "My end stinks too, but it doesnt tell me where to go." Whither Gold??? Certainly something stinketh. Hope it is the Gold bottom.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:06 - ID#410194)
A year ago today (educational reality check!)
Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 21:18
Poorboys ( Guess@To@Form@Opinion@On@Uncertain@Knowledge ) ID#224149:
As the year comes to a close who was right about Gold? Anybody remember the Big Bad Wolf ?Now we look to the new horizon of 1998 and I for one will make a predication .Gold High 343.00 Low 187.00.Happy New Year.Away to find another bottle of bubbly.

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 18:38
farfel ( @Long Gold Baby ( aka LGB ) Aw..there's ya go again... ) ID#28585:
P.S. "The Great Gold SHort Squeeze"....coming to your neighborhood theatre real soon!

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 18:20
farfel ( @Long Gold Baby ( aka LGB ) EURO ASKING ABOUT THE EURO? ) ID#28585:
In the aftermath of the approaching American equity debacle, Switzerland will likely announce sometime in '98 that the proposed referendum for future gold sales has been "reconsidered." Such an announcement will trigger a slingshot rebound in gold's price, thereby sustaining the Swiss Franc as the world's most solid currency along with its new partner, DA EURO..

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 16:59
farfel ( @Long Gold Baby!!! ( aka LGB ) ) ID#28585:
No insincerity!! IT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN, BABY!!

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 16:46
My unusually sensitive ( and not too meager ) proboscis has never let me helluva gold short squeeze is in the works.

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 16:18
There is a particular smell to Bull Anxiety...a particular smell to Gold
My unusually protuberant and perceptive proboscis is saying, for the first time in years: GOLD SHORT SQUEEZE!!!
Can't you feel it in the air tonight, Oh Lord?

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 16:07
My unusually large proboscis is sending me sharp sensations...I haven't felt this type of sharp tingling since 1993!!
OhmiGod...I think I smell a short squeeze in gold lurking round the corner. It'll be HUUUUUUGGGE! I mean...f_______ing HUUUUUUGE!

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 15:55
farfel ( Happy '98! There is a golden glow on the horizon.... ) ID#28585:

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 15:39
cherokee__A ( @------bonds----way-down---------yippie------ ) ID#344308:
just another indicator that this paper-tiger has climbed to
the highest possible pinnacle--------

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 10:59
cherokee__A ( @----ss-trooper-------smoke-signal-trooper-------aaawwwwkkkkkk----- ) ID#344308:
day and counting....might have to add a week or two....!; )
it is so close as to be palpable, warm, and sticky! don't
be fooled by the yearly santa rally....this chicken ( stocks )
has the flu and is fixing to be gassed......

Date: Tue Dec 30 1997 09:55
Karlito99__A ( Inflation/Deflation ) ID#78116:
Inflation, not deflation is the major economic concern for the coming year.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:16 - ID#431200)
Both calculations get the same answer,so it must be good.Regards Goldteck. One ounce troy=31.1034 grams One tons metric=1,000,000 grams One tons= 1,000,000/31.1034=32,150.8 onces troy. Date: Wed Dec 30 1998 14:53
longj ( @summicron ( Ounces and Pounds ) ) ID#30345:1lb = 453.6 grams = 14.5836 troy ozs
1000Kg= 1 metric ton = 2204.6 lbs = 32150.8 troy oz I guess.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:23 - ID#266105)

Realistic- you make it look as though anyone prone to
to prediction is proven to be a fool.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:23 - ID#411259)
..... Salty .....

'Twas none other than the one with Fred C. Dobbs, affectionately called Dobsy by his pals before completely wigging out on fear and greed. Although the movie was given to Bogey, it was the younger Houston's dad, Walter who kept our eyes glued to the screen. I can still see the little jig he did when they reached the foot of the mountain, "Its sittin' right here under yer noses, and you don't even know it" he sang out.

The line you refer to was, of course, spoken by the lead bandito in an attempt to convey the understanding that they were uncredentialed. As I recall, the scene ended with a whole bunch of shooting.

Apart from the sly and debilitating paranoia into which Bogey descended, and the sparkle in old Walter's eyes, the film has some of the finest black and white outdoor photography ever made.

Folks always confuse the original scene with one from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. This is not surprising, the second scene was an obvious rip off from the original contained within, "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre"

OK OK. OK

Cheers all around

Also from the same movie, a forlorn Bogey hit up the same guy three times in a row for a handout, "Say, Mister, could you help out a fellow American down on his luck?"

Oh and also even indeedy, the kid what sold the lottery ticket what started the whole shebang, was a very young Robert Blake, later of, "In Cold Blood" fame, and the unfortunate, "Barreta" on Up Over TV.

What can I say?

I like movies.

Oh yeah the cause of all the trouble that was to follow?




(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:23 - ID#182184)
Thoughts for New Year
- Thanks to the folks at Kitco for providing this site!

- Today CNN had a financial analyst talking about Y2K. He said "don't believe this stuff you read on the Internet". I trust him about as much as Clinton saying that Social Security is "fixed". ( The Internet is where the real systems "experts" communicate. I believe those sources more than some Merrill Lynch MBA that thinks he's an systems expert after he loaded AOL on his PC! )

- Instead of re-hashing predictions from last year, let's get some opinions on what's going to happen NEXT YEAR. ( So what if we were wrong? Maybe we were just ahead of our time! )

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:30 - ID#340383)
s.s.t. == smoke.signal.trooper

Does anyone know what his other abbreviations stand for?

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:34 - ID#252150)
I hope that no one on this forum has been hurt too badly by RYO.
Well over a year ago, I predicted here that it would go to 0.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:43 - ID#219363)

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:53 - ID#411259)
..... Realistic style Educational Reality Check .....

( with a self serving twist )

Date: Wed Dec 31 1997 22:17
RJ ( ..... ? Whither Platinum ? ..... ) ID#411259:

Many may feel the platinum had indeed withered. I've been looking for a year end sell off that still may occur in the first week of January. 1998 will be kind to all metals, but platinum particularly so. Count yourselves lucky who bought in the $340s, but anywhere under $400 will look very attractive when PL tops $500. Remember, the Russians could raise the price $100 with a couple well timed press releases. I've bought some platinum in the last two weeks, but I am still cautious. Who would have called for $342 platinum back in November? It dropped at least $40 lower than the market said it should. The speculative shorts in Japan had a field day slapping platinum around while the longs watched the Yen fall and banks and brokerages fail. The longs hesitated and the shorts took over. It's been my experience that you can pretty much count on at least one good rally per year, and one great blood bath. I think we've seen both this last month.

OK, now

This last post was also from a year ago with platinum in the doldrums a great despair had settled over the land. This was right as platinum dropped about $10 to $355 and was off on a sweet little rally to $400 by February, and $435 by April. Sad to say the rally fizzled out then, for the exact same reason, it seems, that it did last year, worries over Asia.

I blew it this summer, thinking the squeeze was on for the June Contract, but we have been over that ground, yes? Sufice to say, that platinum is telling us something. Those that bought at $400 will see that value and more before April.


(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:53 - ID#219363)
Vietnam GDP Up by 5.8 Pct. in 1998
HANOI, Vietnam ( AP ) -- Vietnam's economy grew by 5.8 percent in 1998, its lowest increase in recent years, according to preliminary data released Thursday from the General Statistical Office. Gross domestic product grew by 9.5 percent in 1995, 9.3 percent in 1996 and 8.2 percent in 1997. But the country, one of the world's poorest, was hit hard in 1998 by the Asian crisis, with exports to the region falling and investment from it declining. The government originally had estimated GDP growth for 1998 at 9 percent, but slashed that to 6 percent in July, along with most other economic indicators. According to Thursday's figures, agricultural production grew by 2.8 percent in 1998, while industrial production growth stood at 10.9 percent and services at 4.2 percent.

(Wed Dec 30 1998 23:55 - ID#254288)

My gut feeling is that Placer Dome will hold back on Las Cristinas. Best guess is that it will be a somewhat longer than two years before production commences.
Low gold and copper prices, low grades, the investment required, potential for trouble from enviromentalists and the mining in wet clay soils compounded by heavy and difficult to contain runoff.
Mining is one big challenge and the PDG's are the ones that make it work.