http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.gif

Time to start thinking about PUT options again ? I'm not sure. If Japan moves strongly to new lows, a few hundred points from here, and some other world markets start to follow, maybe. Very interested in what you guys think about the markets right now.

Karesh.....tell me should I sell when POG hits
900.00 or should I hold?

wins out as the safe haven to protect ones wealth...it is the only recognized...international...money of choice...end of story...

United States producers at this pegged price.



Marx helped explain his belief that "Gold is the commodity money par excellence." When we know the value of gold money and agree upon it in relation to other values, we can then triangulate into other relative commodity values.



. Even today, when no unit of account officially is defined as a specified weight of gold, the market uses gold as the numeraire to triangulate the relative value of real things, as opposed to paper money that floats without definition.



. As long as gold is mixed up with capital and labor, it opens logical discussion to the idea that gold will hold back progress. If gold is simply tied to labor, then it cannot hold back progress. An ounce of gold today will buy 10 haircuts in Tokyo, 30 haircuts in New York, and 300 haircuts in Lagos or Calcutta. A man with a pair of scissors is like a man with a shovel looking for gold. The scissors and shovel are capital, it is true, but they are minimal considerations that can be ignored. In a country that is totally starved of capital, only labor exists, and in that country one man will pick up scissors to cut hair and the other will pick up the shovel and head for the hills. In the time it takes for a thousand barbers to cut 300,000 heads of hair, a thousand miners will produce a thousand ounces of gold, which can exchange for 300,000 haircuts.



In a world of floating currencies, each currency is a unit of account within its own sphere, but how do we tie together these variable standards of measure, unless we have a numeraire. Gold is this numeraire!



How do I know Greenspan knows all this? Well, he knows everything, especially these arguments, which he cant dismiss because they are part of his entire belief system as he has tried to explain to Congress in the last decade. He knows any country that pegs to the dollar while we are not pegged to gold simply imports all our monetary mistakes. My guess is that Rubin does not understand whats going on, unless Greenspan has been trying to tutor him.

I spent a while looking through my bookmarks that are an absolute mess, and I couldn't find the one that I thought would help you. It's in there somewhere.
You might try searching for "Pennygold". They have a database program for sale that will get you on a track of avoiding all of the scams and bankrupts. Certainly not all, but it might give you a fighting chance.
A US broker that deals in Knadiun Joonyurs is Pennaluna. I have never dealt with them, so I have no opinion, but they specialise in miners, so, most lose with them, I suppose. I think that they are legitamate, if you make your own informed choices.
Greenline is rather expensive, but might also do Aussie stuff too, as there is a Greenline there too. You might be able to tag along with Nick@C on some of his shiny ideas.
If I find the bookmark, which lists many brokers and their type of trades, I will pass it along to you.

That's a dandy explanation.
Labor in the US fought for a hard money standard, and were intractably opposed to fiat from the founding of the movement until WW2.

If we continue to raise the shr prices of the gold stocks even as the price of gold goes down ( because of manipulation ) , we will eventually cause the "public" to join in. This will drag the price of gold up and cause a short covering panic by the manipulators. No one can control the markets forever.....

Well I just e-mailed this to every senator, don't know if it will do any good. Here is a web-page for the
US Congress.


http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/

******************************************


I'm very uncomfortable about what I'm hearing in the press concerning the Clinton impeachment trial. I don't like President Clinton, but that is besides the point when one is talking about his senate trial. The ndependent Prosecutor and the House have both found evidence where they find the need to send the President to the Senate for trial. If the evidence for perjury or other offences is strong enough to remove the President, the Senate needs to convict and remove him from office, if not, the President absolutely needs to plead his case to clear his name. I should not have to remind the congress and the Democratic Party that if the President is innocent it is essential that he clears his
good name, and the US Senate is the place where the US Constitution says this should happen in a case such as this, not in the opinion polls! Perjury and obstruction of justice use to be serious offences
for any President to commit, when did this change?

That the White House and the Presidents supporters spend more time attacking the opposition instead of defending him and that the Senate seems to be wavering under this fire and may not fulfill its absolute obligation to perform due process in the impeachment trial of President Clinton scares the hell out of me. This Nation needs to have a full trial where witnesses and evidence are brought before a court of law. The proceedings should not be dragged out nor have its time decided because of political heat felt by the Senate. The case needs to be decided by the Senate, as the President jury, to even consider some faceless mob's opinion the pollsters keep telling me about on TV is a very dangerous president to establish!

I fear that the political class at the end of this process will establish
once and for all that their are two legal systems in this nation, one for the politicians and one for the rest of us. I don't see the moral courage in Washington to do what is required here, I'm sorry to say that but that is how I feel.

it was still a hard money standard. They were caught in the bi-metallic standard problems, many of which were the result of the German states going to a gold standard which dumped a huge amount of ex monetary silver on the world market. Combined with the enormous amount of silver going into coinage from the Nevada strikes, the gold standard came at a bad time for those that had borrowed in a bi-metal system.

Dig it dude. Im in it til it plays itself out, which wont take much longer : )

I think the charts you posted tonight were powerful...surprised no one else commented. The mutual funds cash levels chart is just amazing. I daytrade the DJIA & SP indexes, and while it pays to go with the trend, I agree with your conclusion about the timing of the top based on those charts. These kind of charts help traders understand longer term price movements - something that is helpful with predicting gold price movements as well. The price already has the current psychology and economics figured in in my experience. I appreciate your comments - keep the plane's engines idling, the ride will reconvene soon: )

that's how it is.
Now which amendment allowed the popular election of senators? Repeal it.

When gold hits 900, you may do a little portfolio adjustment. You could trade gold for some tangibles: food, water, other metals. Remember, Franz Pick always said, NEVER give up your gold for Papiere Scheiedreck.

Hope you're feelin' better, bro. Although I have a feelin' gold could sink a little more short term, as you say, long term it's a no brainer.

I expressed my feelings upon the statement of my that they want to have a two tier legal system, that Klinton should be given a full trial has nothing to do with my feelings. Thanks for giving me some feed back, I hope I don't come across that way to those looters in the senate.

I second Silverthorn. Your commentary on the chart posting helps novices such as me.
I heard the usual explanations on CNBC today on the year-end bonus money coming in to the market. Sure, it will pick it up to the level that we saw today, and push VIX down another two points, but, I see from your last chart that this could be a fleeting ocurrence.
Everyone with anything to throw at the market is in. In, rhymes with ping.
The last guys with any money are the federal reserve. Maybe they will do a Hong Kong, and openly buy. The congress wont stop them, they can't even evict der Fuhrer.
Better yet, they will allow the Social Security "Trust Fund" to buy equities to support the market. Or, perhaps they could "mobilise" the "lazy" pension fund money that is inefficiently invested in safer classes of paper.
I trust that they will take as many down with them as they can.
Junk like BEARX might look good soon.

Tuesday, January 5, 1999
1 ECU = 1.0000 Euro
1 Euro ( EUR ) = 1.0000 ECU ( XEU )

well, not quite

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 244.966 ECU
yet
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 243.367 Euro

and

1 Platinum ( oz. ) = 308.874 ECU
yet
1 Platinum ( oz. ) = 306.858 Euro

There is a curious pattern here, switchbacks in prices -mirrors ( quite literally ) -

And one can not but wonder ( holding one's aching head )
If the 'private ECU', which is the creature of private banks,
might be the vehicle chosen to 'ameliorate' gold shorts
clever plat straddlestotal controlprivacy to unwind it all
worth looking into?

Think I'll go have a good crunchy carrot...
Night all.

I meant no disrespect for you. Your bookmark is on my list for tomorrow.
Either the politicians are in abject terror of this president for what he will reveal about them, or they are craven ward-heelers that will do anything to preserve their status. But, that defines the modern politicians.

IF the govt's are markiting gold around $300 per ounce as per 582 Orca . Then the price will stay there as long as they feed gold into the market at that price. Same as when the US paid out 1 ounce for every $35.00 foriegn parties wanted exchanged. Exact same thing.

The stopper comes when they freak doing that like they did before...when the gold starts to disappear..that's when they will quit. It's not the cash they recieve for the gold of course, it's supporting the fiat as before.

Could take awhile, but no doubt thier gold will go and they will freak.

The whole Senate is on pins and needles. That sly old fox Henry Hyde dumped this political hand grenade right into the Senate's lap. The senators are trying mightily to wiggle out of it. A full Senate trial has all kinds of risks and uncertainties for both sides. It is a process that may well spiral out of control into an all out smear war. Lott would like nothing better than for this whole thing to go away, and just continue to be majority leader in a calm political climate. Well, that looks increasingly unlikely. My latest reading is that there will be a full trial with witnesses and cross examination. The DNA story is another ticking time bomb, politically speaking. If that test points to Clinton, look out. These are indeed crazytimes, eh!

Interesting numbers. Could this just be a problem with fractions. I would be interested in your further comments on this. I don't see how these tiny numbers could have the implications you suggest. Can you go further with this idea? My own thot is that the ultimate reconciliation of the shorts" problem is to ~simply~ redefine the value of major currencies at an expediate time. Why the intricacies of these small numbers? When the Fed has totally flooded the world with dollars won't it be easy to cover the shorts at any price? With fractional banking practices, buying gold at any price produces an asset which can produce 10 or 30 or whatever times as many dollars to buy more gold, a repetitive process until the short problems are gone. I respect your insights into SDRs and currency issues, by the way, and altho I am not sophisticated enough to dialogue intelligently about this, would appreciate your further comments.

While thinking about having some cash backup for Y2k,was wondering about travelers checks in SFranc or possibly the Euro.Spent morning calling large Denver area banks--talked to several foreign currency "experts".In ALL cases the glassy look was evident over phone!No one local will sell foreign tchecks except one banker thought might be able to get british pound.Any thoughts out there as to whether this would be a reasonable diversification of some assets??Or where one could get them?

I wonder too how much longer this can go on. I think that the thing that has really fueled this market is the derivatization of equities and the printing of money. The big rule in trading is that the market will do anything to give the biggest benefit to the fewest people. So I suspect that what we are seeing right now, today, is the really big money doing what it has to do to drive up the prices so that the few really big players can get out. Months ago here at Kitco it was said that "they" are silently making their way to the exits. I think "they" are almost out a closing door.

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/cowles.asp

It wa Urquhart who said Gold is the sinews of war. Since WWII, if not before, this has not been clearly true because the paper palace has been located in the land of the A bomb and other technological leading edge weapons. Greenbacks not gold were the tender of preference for shopping in the American arms bazaar. But the pressure of arms sales competitiin is changing that equation.

Gold leasing is the 90's version of gold selling in the 70's. It has proved a clever way for USG to influence others to support its anti-gold policy with their gold.

If oil shifts to the Euro, everything will mobilize. If not, the war of attrition in trenches will continue.

You wrote a book in 1990 but I can't find it or a title. Can you tell me what it was or email it to me? A few weeks ago you posted a most interesting comment on the origin of the income tax in 1913/14 and I would like to read more about that. Thanks

With all the paper floating around, not to mention the high stock market and real estate prices, real estate by virtue of the banker/lender greed that holds most and the populace on the hook -to them; the only reasonable conclusion that I can arrive at is a bi-metalic currency standard backed/convertable to gold and silver at minimum prices of $1200 Au and $75 Ag, but opened to the potential of still higher prices if such numbers don't work.
We have to get the government out of the bond markets as they only bring rates up for the indivigual citizen. Those industries fleeing the country and leaving the people liable for the taxes to pay the Treasury Interest by virtue of their chicanery, while leaving the ordinary citizen paying the tax bill should be banned from doingbusiness in the the country.
I see a revolution occuring -A Second American Revolution to Get these Scum Out- for the good of the country. Tolerant1, Clintok, while a scumbag is just kid stuff, when comparing to what is really going on, but still a gulp and a puff to you.

Question for anyone in the know. What process does a big company go through to get paper into the bond markets ? Obviously the company has to decide to take on a little debt. From there, I think they work with an underwriter who buys up the paper and markets it on the primary and secondary markets. Somewhere, someone puts the paper through S&P or Moody's to get a rating on the issue. I'm sure the lawyers are all over it too, and maybe the SEC has some rules as well. If someone who knows could add more or point me to a good source that talks about the process involved, I'd appreciate it very much.

One way corporate paper reaches the market is via banks which buy the bonds and then resell them into the market. The rating helps price the resale. The bonds are an asset which allows the banks to borrow from the Fed, and of course the Fed allows the bank to borrow 900% of the value of the asset. This is one more way which banks have to create/print more dollars to flood into the market.

You may be looking for the Informer's Book. It's not mine.

To read more of the origin of the income tax, get a copy of President Taft's speeches and read the one where he urges Congress to enact an income tax amendment. On corporations.

Tax on labor is involuntary servitude in am amount assessed as tax. How can this be under the Constitution, you may ask ? The answer is you are taxed as if you are like unto to a corporation, an artificial person travelling under the term of "individual" as defined in statute.

Is that the title - the Informer's Book? I know you are really articulate about the illegality of the tax, but the fact that there is no fiscal reason for it is also staggering. The only purpose it serves is to take money from the people who have it and give it to someone else. Mostly the someone elses are the people who vote for the guys who take the money and the guys who really get the big money. The gov could easily exist today by selling bonds without any tax revenue. Just sell more bonds to pay the interest on the old ones and get more operating cash. Crazy - if I try that it's called "ponzi"

My CPA called today to tell me that my companies have to file a special Form 1099 for all money paid to attorneys last year. At least one money grabber recognizes another: )

Sorry - don't recognize the symbol. In reviewing my precious metal portfolio, the charts for everyone single one mirrored the general market's drop in July. I consider that they will continue to do so, except for RANGY, the most highly touted dog of the bunch, which I expect will stay in the dumper which is where is has been for longer than since last July.

OWLES: No, actually it's inverted. And that's what I was talking about in terms of those interruptible loads. Your large commercial consumers of power get a very preferable rate on their electricity for two reasons.
Number one, they use it in bulk quantities, and the second reason is because they agree to be that interruptible load. Emergency service organizations, hospitals, police department, emergency management, fire departments and so on are the last that are going to get cut off.

PARKHILL: So they're at the top of the food chain?

COWLES: They're at the top of the food chain. One tier below that is
your residential customers.

@Silverthorne Very interesting about the 1099 for attorneys. More to the point is that they are creatures of government. Like corporations.

Informer wrote Which One Are You ? and Is America A British Colony ? Good thought provoking information.

I am not clear how gold relates to war. I thought that war was the central bankers way of clearing the fiat money off the table and starting over. I would like to go on with this, but since you aren't communicating any more tonite, I'm going to sleep. Got to be up for the market which should be fun tomorrow. But I'll look for you tomorrow night. Have a good one.

http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~limweech/k_post.html

Not my work but faithfully bookmarked....

The foundation of the greenback is a lien on all the land and improvements and vehicles in the country and via social security, a lien on the labor in the country. Tax is a debt and the debt is secured by lien.

People overlook what Greenspan said is money: a claim on something tangible.

If you got a notice to report to a government factory to work for three days a week for no compensation, the involuntary servitude of the income tax would be undeniable. You are just allowed to work off your debt at your regular job now. That could change.

Gold relates to war in two ways. First, combatants are poor credit risks so arms and materiel must be paid for in gold. Second, if you can't force your population to die for you and they won't volunteer, you must hire mercaneries and they demand gold.

Y2K is obviously a serious threat because nobody will insure against it.

I understand the money system from a practical, not theoretical sense and in that understanding you may accuse me of not understanding. I understand, too, that Greenspan is right that money is a claim on something tangible. But I think that paper dollars may be a different kind of money than he was referring to. [more]

Dollars in my pocket represent debt of someone. But so what? This not immediately relevant to me if I can pass it off to someone else in exchange for some THING for example, gold. Perhaps Greenspan was still in his gold mode when he made that statement. Also, if I don't work, I don't pay tax and therefore am not a slave. Maybe its just the price people are willing to pay, rightly or wrongly, for the same pragmatic kinds of reasons. [more]

Hike on down to your local courthouse and look through the lien files for those filed by IRS agents. It is a fast way to connect practical and theoretical undestandings of the "money system". I take Greenspan at his word rather than interpret his words to fit my own conceptions. Greenspan's word also squares with the law, which is what you are calling the theoretical.

The fact that no one will insure against Y2K does not mean that it is a serious threat. No one will insure that I will not get hit by a flying rabbit, but that does not make flying rabbits a serious threat.

I understand the lien conept as it pertains to personal and real property, neither of which is considered money, which is classified as intangible property. The fact that the IRS can make a claim against my personal and real property for payment of an obligation is no different than any other creditor of mine. Do they figure into this monetary theory in some way?

Pragmatism is called for in these dire times! Abandon theory! March forward with purpose and confidence! Buy gold, sell gold stocks ( especially south african reverse split with no notice to shareholder stocks ) . Better, acquire an understanding of off shore tax havens as they pertain to corporations and then you will begin to experience peace and happiness in regards to monetary theory: )

I have to get some sleep, but I always read your commentary at a later time.
Even though you might think that you are talking to youself, there are those out here that need a lot of free education that you so generously offer.

I'm in RANGY with you too. If Vronsky is such a genius, how did he allow the pumping of RANGY on his site, especially after that doggie collapsed from 8.00+/share.
Whatsit now? 0.45, or something?

It is perfectly legal to bring bullion coins into this country. Although they must be declared thru customs, there is no tax on them. The question which Americans have been terrorized into NOT asking, is, how do I legally get the money offshore with which to buy these coins. Europeans exhibit a high degree of shrewdness when grappling with these concepts, and scorn terror. The new European government, which has been layered over the existing bungling socialistic governements, aware of this cavalier attitude towards rapacious socialistic taxing systems resulting in high unemployment, is now attempting to impose a withholding tax on interest earned on investments outside the domicile of the account holder. No one is lining up as of yet to pay this new tax, which is being resisted right and left. They understand the theory of money as it pertains to liens! Put it where the tax man don't come!

Thanks for the info. I checked out Pennaluna, and while they call themselves "discount," what's accurate is that they charge less than a full-price broker, and essentially twice as much as Greenline. Pennaluna has a sliding scale which early on gets up to over $100. We are no longer in the 1970's, and the truth has long been out that there is no reason for a broker to charge more for a higher-priced security, or a larger dollar amount. The work is the same. And the "work" per transaction is less these days.

( I really like my current broker, which is Global Resources, but the comparatively high commissions are not to my liking. )

If you sold 10,000 shares of RANGY tomorrow, you could probably drive the price to 2 cents. Its never wrong to take someone's word or idea until its wrong. Then you know better: )

I'm not sure that you can blame him. I received notices from RANGY last year including one right before the split, and none of them mentioned the split. That is illegal in the state where I live, and is unethical everywhere. Not necessarily the fault of the messenger, I guess.

Think of the low gold price as -a tax if you wish- instituted by the FED and US Treasury, upon those who believe in hard money; so that a fiat money system will continue .
These powers push the markets and the beholding government ( deep in political hackery ) receives further capital thru taxes in fiat money from market profits, from the investing public who keeps this unholy movement progressing.
The government supports the industrial powers by purchasing their product while still allowing for the hoards of civil servants to be payed by a productive, but shrinking group, the same group, whose rapidly diminishing hopes have become focused the very markets they hope will relieve them of their morass.

Would love to hear more of your thoughts on Y2K. Be sure that flying monkeys or rabbits or whatever would be insured against if such transactions were profitable.

The world is breaking out in bullishness. Gold and silver are both a little higher in Europe, now. Gold up over a dollar and silver clearing $5.06. Boy is this exciting. S&P on Globex is up 500+ points following on an across the board rally in Asian markets. ( Pakistan was the only looser ) .

Re stocks: one only wonders how long the lunacy can continue with pes in the 40s common among tech stocks. Perhaps I sometimes think we kitcoites are old line thinkers and don't understand that there has been a change in appropriate valuations. I'm ready to test that thinking. Give me a shot up to 10,000 toward the end of this week and I'm liquidating my longs and going short the SPY.

Hope they ring a bell

Cepri, the Peruvian government's privatisation agency, has announced the sale of 100 percent of the state-owned gold deposits of Quicay next month at a base price of US$10 million and a further $10 million minimum investment expenditure over five years.

This was disclosed by the Peruvian Embassy in Pretoria on Tuesday. The pre-qualification deadline is February 12, with the presentation of proposals due on February 22.

Quicay consists of 14 concessions totalling 11 100 hectares at Pasco in the central Andean region, east of several other major gold mines. The state mining company Centromin estimates that the deposits could produce more than 60 000 ounces annually. Recent studies revealed reserves of at least 1,5 million tons at yield of 1,9 grams per ton.

Centromin said Quicay's geological conditions were "very favourable", with the ephemeral deposit close to surface and high concentrates of gold at a depth of less than 40 metres.

The Quicay deposits were returned to the Peruvian government by Canadian gold mining giant Barrick, which had obtained the initial rights to its exploitation. Barrick decided rather to develop the Pierina gold mine at Ancash, which is estimated to produce 750 000 ounces of gold per year, as well as silver.

Source: SAPA

Y2K has the potential to be as bad as the worst predictions. That's for sure. No one knows the probability of the worst materializing, but the probability of severe economic and political impact is 100%.

As long as there are people who don't want to pay taxes, there will be legal ways to avoid paying taxes. More and more people, I understand, are taking their business offshore. When that doesn't work because of new regulations designed to keep people from benefiting from offshore investments, people create offshore corporations to do business. When that doesn't work, I suspect some of the diehard folks will give up their citizenship.

I noticed that you suggesting to check on the London commentaries, why not New York? Just wondering. http://www.mitsui-gold.com/Reports/ny1.pdf

All:

I don't think Matt Drudge jumped the gun on this one. If WJC is a 'dead beat dad' -- and the charge sticks, he is history. I find it interesting that one of the most talented, charismatic, versatile presidents we have ever had is being brought down by his own lies. It is reassuring to learn that telling the truth still matters, even for those who try to define 'truth' as it is defined in a court of law.

Perhaps humans are now sufficiently sophisticated that they can recognize an anti-Christ. Fortunately WJC is not quite there -- for our sakes, and for the sake of the World.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt1.htm

This is something I never considered. WJC's DNA is now a matter of public record. It is only a matter of time before something like this happens -- If not the Williams boy, it will be another child -- with DNA analysis to confirm paternity. And -- WJC has denied having affairs with at least one hundred women -- all 'trash' too, according to his PR people.

It does not matter whether the Senate has the stomach to try and convict WJC. He will be convicted in the court of public opinion -- just like OJ Simpson. Yes -- I have ethical problems with this -- but strangely I do not care. I guess what really matters is still the truth.

Hats off again to Matt Drudge -- a man who answers to no media moguls -- only to himself. I hope other media professionals will see the message, and realize that they too must answer to their own consciences, and not just to their bosses.

I think we should invest accordingly -- this is too big for AG to contain -- Gold will rise, and the US markets will fall. Perhaps not tomorrow, or even a month from now -- but the writing is on the wall. After the dust settles and the WJC issues are behind us, the US markets will recover -- but probably not till well after y2k.

For Tuesday 05th Jan calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.82---------------0.92-------------1.19-----------------1.57
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.09 ) ------- ( - 0.11 ) ------- ( - 0.07 ) ----------- ( - 0.05 )

Silver Lease Rate---0.96--------------1.66--------------2.61-----------------2.89
( Change ) --------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day

For Tuesday 05th Jan from data published on their website by Mitsui
Mitsui have disappointed by not updating their data since Monday. I will phone them later today to find out why.
Regards...........Dabchick

sharefin: Thanks for your post about the alternate Kitco site. I know you and I are very much alike on one matter of paramount importance -- that telling the truth does matter.

All: I am honored to be able to post at this site, partially because so many of us understand why telling the truth does matter. My guess is that is one characteristic of a gold bug. The price of gold has always remained an indicator of the truth in the nature of fiat currency affairs. Even the information/computer/derivative revolution has not been able to alter the intrinsic value of gold, and no one has been able to subvert the price of gold by creating an unlimited 'supply', no matter how hard they have tried.

Too bad there is no 'gold standard' for politicians. All that we have is our own human internal sense of justice, and that is so easily subverted by cunning, pathological liars. We -- the human race -- are learning -- slowly. Perhaps I will still live long enough to see humans reach for the stars.

Millions could be made - internet mania, etc.

I chose the London commentary because it appeared to be more focussed on lease rates than the New York Commentary. The NY one calls lease rates "Lease Indications" which are calculated from Forward Bids. Also, I thought that if comparing FT and Mitsui data, a more accurate comparison would be obtained if I got them both from the same ( London ) city, as they were then more likely to have been obtained at the same time ( eg London Close ) .
I looked at all four commentaries at 02:00 Kitco time this morning. The London one had not been updated. The NY one was timed at Tuesday's Opening ( ie 08:30 ET ) and so was out of date this morning in London. I intend to look at it again after today's NY Open ( in four hours time ) to see if the Lease Rates for yesterday are given.
Thanks again for drawing our attention to the site http://www.mitsui-gold.com/ If between us we can get Mitsui to supply their data from all cities in a reliable manner, no doubt they will be appreciated by all at Kitco.
Regards.........Dabchick

All: There is a good reason why WJC will get a trial in the Senate. Our congressman often cower at the prospect of losing votes -- but if the House has had enough spirit to face the WJC issue head - to - head -- the Senate will not allow themselves to be upstaged.

I do not know how long this trial will last, and I do agree with our congressmen that the topic of sex is not a pleasant one to discuss publically -- even if the real issue is lying.

I think the Senate trial may develop a life of its own -- especially if WJC is dumb enough to fight the charges. If he does,he will only galvanize the Senate, just as he galvanized the House.

If the Senate falters, I would guess that a few more bombshells will be leaked to the press. Kenneth Starr does not have to do this -- after the Monicagate affair, the floodgates have opened. I am amazed that WJC apparently does not see the writing on the wall -- I suspect Hillary does. Perhaps WJC is hanging in there for the Al Gore Jan 99 deadline, or because he fears criminal prosecution. What a fitting trap that KS has set -- either intentionally or not!

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990105/V000258-010599-idx.html

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/010699russia-north.html

All: My heart goes out to these Russians. I nearly got stranded in Toronto during a snowstorm, only to find out that the power in MidAmerica hometown was off for 2 days. I was lucky -- neighbors were not -- frozen people and pipes. It seems that the Utility deregulation has reduced the service capability of our local companies.

And -- this is not y2k -- yet.

Russia is already having their y2k crisis -- I pray that they do not have mass starvations this winter.

I have just spoken to Mitsui in London who apologised for not yet posting the lease rates for Tuesday on their site http://www.mitsui-gold.com They will normally do so about 11:00 UK time ( 06:00 Kitco time ) each morning for the previous day. If they come up with them today I will post them here.
Regards........Dabchick

London--Jan 5--UK stockbroker T Hoare and Co says gold and platinum are 2
exceptions in an otherwise bleak outlook for metals. "Our 2 favorite metals are
gold and platinum...The signs of a ( gold ) revival are early and small, but they
are there. For example, during 1998 gold has led the Dow ( Jones industrial
index ) rather than running to it. This is a classic risk hedge performance and
has not been seen in the US for over 20 years," a T Hoare report said. By
Miranda Maxwell, Bridge News, Story .16644

Gollum: Got enough sand? We don't want to slip back due to icy rails, do we?

I don't know how much longer our equity rally will last, but it does look like the ( mini ) Gold equity rally is still intact. Commodities could be bottoming in the US -- for now, anyway.

If we can avoid an outright Oct 97 type market correction, gold equities should do well this year! A two year gold bear will turn around eventually -- with a vengeance.

We gold bug Tsunami surfers have to see in all directions -- like Quan Yin --- that aspect of Budda.

Still have some dry powder? Not the chilly white kind.

Is this the Silver Falcon? I am both happy and sad, like in the voice, desert, night story.

Now at $5.12 as we speak.......

Fulfill my dreams of silver madness!

THC

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990105/7o.html

http://cbs.marketwatch.com:80/archive/19990105/news/current/stwatch.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

There are some fairly powerfull reasons to think we may indeed be reaching a bottom in commodities and a top in the equities ( see my posts from 22:43 and 24:12 last night ) .

Also there seems to be about the right amount of pessimism in the air.

The price run yesterday was encouraging. Lease rates had suggested that the shorts would be renewing their activity in the metals. Sure enough the new year started with pressure on the metals.

Then silver bounced back.

Yesterday, after each little run, the shorts stepped in only to be met by matching longs.

Overnight trade has seen more gains.

Any shorts thinking 1999 will be a replay of '98 and '97 need to do some rethinking.

http://www.scotsman.com:80/business/bs02liff990105.1.html

to all ..
interesting forecast on CRB index
at ..
http://www.ausinvest.net/community/Chris/invcorner_chris.htm

to all ..
the site mentioned in my prior
posting .. forecast silver to
outperform gold short term ..
which it has .. it also provided
the basis for its forecast ..
.. it is not a cheerleader site..
.. judging from recent bad mouthing
of rangold .. I think I should buy
some .. but not ADRs.

If you wanted to make incredible amounts of money, with no fundamentals in an unbelievably short time you should have bought AMZN or EBAY. : )

polarbear's randgold website -
http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangy.htm

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/rangyeagle1.htm

A great new article by Dr. Jim Azzola is now online.

RANDGOLD
- A Gold Story Like No Other

Randgold and Exploration Limited ( symbol: RANGY ) , the South African-based
ADR, is an unusual animal in the Nasdaq jungle. First, because it is a
gold company, second, because it is a holding company, and third, because
of its blinding obscurity. With no PR department and listed on an exchange dominated by visible, high-tech players like Microsoft and Cisco, it is an unassuming elephant in the land of the lions....

Go To: newsworld.cbc.ca-Story on Business news.

Go Gold incl Royal Oak

I'm just checking in to see how last night's revival meeting turned out and to count the converts. I'm getting a distinct sense that the commodities market is turning around. I'm not talking just gold, I'm talking petroleum, grains etc. I may be wrong but there seems a boyancy here not present last year. I'm ready for some long action in the gold arena. Oh by the way here's a breaking legal story:

A group of terrorists burst into the conference room at the
Ramada Hotel, where the American Bar Association was
holding its Annual Conventions. More than a hundred lawyers
were taken as hostages. The terrorist leader announced that
unless their demands were met, they would release one
lawyer every hour.

Well it is off to work for me.

Tortfeasor: That sounds more threatening than nuclear terrorism! And with a much more long-lasting effect.

All: I hope everyone had a nice holiday -- without too much excitement! This year looks like many cycles are coalescing to make our favorite topic go up -- but we are likely to have a few deflationary bumps on the way. Still got dry powder? Paying off debt?

I have just spoken to Mitsui in London again and they were most helpful. Anton, who produces the data for their website says it can be ready most days about 08:00 UK time ( 03:00 Kitco time ) . That means it could be posted here by 04:00 kitco time. Here are the Offered Rates from Mitsui for yesterday's London Close:

For Tuesday 05th Jan from Mitsui
Period------------1- month--------3- month--------6- month---------12- month
Gold Lease Rate---0.80---------------0.95-------------1.10-----------------1.55
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.20 ) ------- ( - 0.20 ) ------- ( - 0.30 ) ----------- ( - 0.10 )

Silver Lease Rate---1.00--------------1.75--------------2.75-----------------3.05
( Change ) --------- ( 0.00 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( - 0.00 ) ------------ ( 0.00 )
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day
Regards...........Dabchick

http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard60.html

Silver up 10 cents over night in the biggest overnight move seen in ages. Perhps it is becasue London is closed??? Where is the Central Bank Cabal?? Maybe trades have silver confused with sugar??

Long SSC and PAASF - hope they catch the fire.

S&P hot as well up almost 10 points, dollar falling back from best early gains. Looks like we'll see some excitment today.

Gollumn - can silver hold its rally.??? A close above $5.15 might rally some additional support to our assistance to fight the renewed thrusts of the CABAL to be engineered after the close should the gains last that long.

I posted about 17:45 on Jan 4th and it appeared at 22:14 on Kitco. Kitco had accepted the post at the earlier time. This is an example which was new to me. A number of Kitcoites had queried about Kitco's slowness on the 4th . It was slow for me, too.

I often suspect Microsoft software for anything that seems sluggish or screwed up. Maybe this has something to do with Kitco's woes that come and go. Maybe software by the big M isn't involved in anyway. I am sure -- it's fact --Microsoft programs will take an hour to do some things that others' programs accomplish in less than one real-time minute ( like partitioning a hard drive ) . Generally, my experience with Microsoft is that it often clutters my system with "invisible" junk files, and sometimes does worse things. Just connecting to MSNBC etc. seems to do this. Purging my hard drive of useless files, regularly, helps. Commercial programs ( like Cleansweep ) are dangerous because they sometimes remove necessary files. I avoid using them unless I know precisely what I need removed. This can be time-consuming. There is a free program, "Space Ace II" by Rich Levin, which has never done anything bad to me, and I use it regularly, sometimes several times a day, if my system acts slow; even while on the Net ( with two browsers  neither by Microsoft running ) . Being on the Web generates a lot of junk: junk is all that is removed by Space Ace . I don't have to monitor what it does. I think one site for the program is computertalk.com.

Another way to try to work with a slow website is to use multiple windows. Several Kitcoites have explained how they do this. My variation is to have six windows open of a single site on a single screen ( with one of my browsers, leaving a second browser free to use ) . Opera 3.50 does this most easily for me, compared to other browsers I've worked with. I hope these simple observations are helpful and of practical use to some.

Go gold!

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm

Silver has been building a long base and showing solidity even when we saw gold drop to it's lower tradind channel. True, it showed a dip earlier in the week when short sellers attempted to drive the market down taking advantage of lower lease rates, but it rebounded smartly. Several times it attempted a rally only to be beaten back around 5.05, but always it got up bacl off the mat and made another go of it.

Now, we've broken through.

Yes, I think we will sustain.

I hope the guys in NY are ready for the day.

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnPlT0b8Ztda2nteZmZm0&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990106_xex_the_plan_mas.shtml

Today we will see. I'll tell you there was nothing in the silver stocks ( PAASF and SSC ) to indicate there was to be any sterring. Suspect they will be followers of the commodity price. CRB does look poised for a bounce and 212 as your earlier post indicated looks like a very logical target for a relief rally at this time. That ought to take silver up to $5.50, unless it proves to be a real leader - gosh, wouldn't that be a switch - truely not a repeat of '98 and '97.

We will see...

Wouldn't it be odd to see the stock market and commodities rally together? Haven't seen that perdicted - thus probably a chance it may happen. What I want to see is tv reruns of all those brilliant high paid know it all analysts that said the yen was going to 150 to the dollar. It should be remembered that it was Kaplan, among a few others, that called for a yen rally of substantial proportions. He also likes the metals, obviously, and cotton which has been in a straight line down - made new contract lows yesterday before reversing. Kaplan also points out the extremnly high PEs ( S&P at 32X )

Watching for a few weeks of blow off action in stocks and commodities then back down to earth with a thud.....

Keep pullling those levers....

Medicaid definitely will be a mess, plus insurnace companies panic over enrollment or any kind of computer errors, as they should. The greater difficulty would be to my mind what the programs represent, as in get your medical care and prescriptions prior to 7/1/1999 and stock up on prescriptions. They all expire in 12 months, but you could get a year in 6/1999 to last until 6/2000! Other danger is the embedded chips in surgical instruments, not something MD's really have time to focus on--what is inside their instruments. Don't plan on scheduling surgery in 1/2000--if it can be done sooner or later the better. Whenever there is a natural catastrophe you get a run on pharmacies, and they do run out of popular prescriptions--they can only stock up so much without incurring a debit, so its good to stock up on RX's when you can just like any other product, keep a bit in reserve.
Today is Ganapati--in the dark half of the month the day of Ganesh, good luck and expansion, the most favored day in the Hindu year for the removal of obstacles and creating a new path or breaking through the boundaries along the way. The waxing moon is again in Taurus ( the bullish sign ) so we should have upvolume in real assets until May of 99. Watch the horns of the waxing moons--if they point North or East and especially up toward the center of Heaven it was considered bullish in the ancient societies.
Regards, Lakshmi. And shri Laksmi's deva! Let gold rise to its real value, now that we have more monetary confusion on the gross level, value must shine to light the world.

Yes, there is some seeing to do. With the shorts in NY wanting the price down it makes one wonder where the buying is coming from.

Today will be intersting to watch long/short battle.

The gold/silver ratio is below 56 this a.m. ( basis GCG9/SIH9 ) which looks like a breakout of the uptrend.

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/auag.htm

It appears to me that if the ratio goes below 55, it will be a confirmation of the trend reversal. Next stop in the downtrend if it is confirmed - a ratio of 30 to 35, which would likely give us silver at $8 to $10.

GIDDYUP!

Hi Yo SILVER........AWAY!

UIsually this has indicated a strong commodities and Gold market.......

http://www.fotw.stm.it/images/is-ryl18.gif

Watch PAASF especially. It has shown some unusual activity the last few weeks.

Gee, it's gonna be over five and a quarter before the BMW's even get through the snowy streets of NY to work this morning. I bet the gunslingers are all on their cell phones even as we sit here.

John Disney, do these numbers check with you?

As of 25 Dec 98, using R 70 M for the Mineral Rights, my calculations are $3.33 NAV per ADR, and using Kebbles estimated value of R 140 M, I get $4.19.

http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/25dec_navspread.htm

How it can be selling for a buck and a half is beyond me. Certainly hasn't been a stellar performing of late, but is now the time to buy such stuff for pennies on the dollar, or do we jump on Amazon.comical?

People can call RANGY a dog all they want, but now's the time to buy suck dogs. Or, will ya wait until you are more "confident" after missing out on the first and easiest double?

A good read: THE NATURE OF RISK, by MAMIS...

The Falcon flies in solitary skies
Uttering shrill keening cries

The Phonix dies as sadly we mourn
Soon enough will it be reborn

And so it goes

It will take some heavy pounding to change this momentum! Wonder if the CABAL is going to come out of hiding today!

THC

HMmmmmm ???????

The CABAL comes riding to the rescue! Now we duke it out. London versus NY.

They've got to get the price down before the close. If they don't, it puts new fire in the hole for the large short positions. Then then three days hence margin calls.

Now it all depends on who has deeper pockets. The shorts or the mysterious longs.

If the shorts fail, the squeeze will be in by next Monday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990106/c1.html

http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/SP/SPDaily/SPD/SPD_0.html

You're so suscinct with your words.^-o-o^

--
JTF
Thanking you.
Yes the truth is slowly filtering out.
I remember not long ago when I was a kook for posting so much Y2k info here.

Now I'd have to say that the Kitco crowd would have to be one of the most well prepared groups as for what's coming.

Percental wise there would not be many others groups who would be so well informed and well prepared as to the souls who frequent Barts hallowed halls.

----------------------------------------------------

These few articles at the top of this page should be read by all.
http://www.cbn.org/y2k/

Congressional Staffer Warns Of Disruptions, Rationing, & Oil Shortages; What's The Answer? Individual & Community Preparation
http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=990105m.htm

Koskinen's Worries About The Railroads: "No Indication That They Are Going To Make It"
http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=990105l.htm

Will Electricity Flow In The Year 2000?
http://www.cbn.org/y2k/cowles.asp


-----------------------
My swing charts have got a bug in them.
Rather MS Excell 97 has got a bug in it.

The dates span the 1999 rollover but the excell charts won't.
The charts will show data up to and including 1st Jan 1999 but not read dates after this.

Anybody have any clues as to why and how to fix this?

We all thank you for being a "kook"...being prepared for change is something that was a way of life but a few short years ago. Not so now. Your brothers here @ Kitco have been made to think and adopt the "old" ways...being prepared. I, for one, will always extend my thanks to you for the information you post. Even if Y2k turns out to be a non-event.

Fear, however, will reign in '99.

Tom

First Silver had the best stock performance in last year silver rally. FSR is also the only pure silver producer. It is the only one profitable now with a P/E below 10. It has growing production, earnings and reserves...managed by the former president of Industriales Penoles.

http://www.firstsilver.com/production.html

Claude Cormier
Editor, The Goldbug's Comment

"I hear a very gentle "howl"
Very near yet very far;
Very soft, yeah, very clear;
Come today, come today."

...consumer debt is at an all-time high. Farmers are in depression. Some 200,000 manufacturing jobs were wiped out in 1998. Consumers have, for the first time since statistics were kept, begun drawing down their savings to splurge at the mall. Alan Greenspan keeps pumping the money out and cutting the interest rates. But is all that cash creating a bubble market that may explode just like Japan's did a decade ago?

http://www.theamericancause.org/crossfire-economy-98-1225.html

Latest London Bullion Fixings

Gold AM Fixing ( 6 Jan 1999 ) : 173.191 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 6 Jan 1999 ) : 287.150 US Dollars

Gold PM Fixing ( 5 Jan 1999 ) : 172.947 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 5 Jan 1999 ) : 286.400 US Dollars

Silver Fixing ( 6 Jan 1999 ) : 3.0946 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 6 Jan 1999 ) : 5.1525 US Dollars

I missed the last 4000 points I think it may be time to jump in. Dow 10000 by noon.

Do they still use Gold in teeth?

Kitco Slow, and Bart doesn't seem to know?

HighRise

You'd think this one was written by a Kitcoite???

Don't panic-
http://www.the-journal.co.uk/jnl-cfm/news_story.cfm?StoryId=81351?cture=YES&Frame=Features

I wonder how much gold and food Dave's got stashed?

Please excuse....

This is worth browsing

http://www.firstsilver.com/slide/slide01.htm

TRIPOLI, Libya ( AFX ) - South Korean companies face expulsion from Arab countries if the South Korean government continues to support U.S. policy on Iraq, Libya's official JANA news agency said.

"South Korea is endangering its numerous interests in the Arab world," the agency said, as it condemned South Korean support for U.S.-British air strikes against Iraq last month.

"South Korea should know that its companies in Arab countries risk expulsion if it does not change its position in support of the hostile U.S. policy toward the Arab world," JANA's political commentator said.

In a statement on Dec 17, the South Korean foreign ministry said "the Korean government understands and supports the position of the U.S. government that its military action was unavoidable."

Ask these dudes. ( Just received this in email - I'm not trying to solicit for them )

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Don Hays of First Union/Wheat First is the guest host on CNBC tomorrow morning at 8:30. When it comes to calling markets, he has few peers. This guy calls it as he sees it without grandstanding.

I had a gold crown made just last year - the dentist's suggestion - I didn't even have to ask him for that instead of something else.

but banks make handsome profits ( or suffer nasty losses ) working to the right of the decimal!

For example, three yen ( Euro 133 yen, XEU 130 yen, 1/5/99 ) won't buy either of us a cup of coffee, but factor that 3 yen into a trillion yen transaction and we might host a rather pleasant lunch for the Kitco board.

One's eyebrow is raised by the existence of ECU quotes. The public ecu ceased to exist 1/1/99. The 3P profiles in plat, gold etc., are still wonderfully accurate, as are the xau/xpt, xag/xpt, and xag/xau ratios for all the monitored currencies, USING the EURO. They fall apart when one uses the ECU quotes. But of course, one would NOT use the ecu, because the ecu doesn't exist Except it does

Bottom linewe are like financial archeologists, sifting through the detritus to discover small truthsso what happens behind the decimal matters {:- )

1/5/99
1 ECU = 130.534 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 131.580 Japanese Yen

1/4/99
1 ECU = 133.102 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 134.000 Japanese Yen

1/3/99
1 ECU = 132.903 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 133.040 Japanese Yen

1/2/99
1 ECU = 133.067 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 132.624 Japanese Yen

1/1/99
1 ECU = 132.844 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 132.624 Japanese Yen

.. .. was forecast on following site on
November 13 .. based on e-wave analysis
of the gold/silver ratio ...
http://www.ausinvest.net/community/Chris/invcorner_chris.htm

a daily comment article on the Wheat First web site. I think it is www.wheatfirst.com. Dan

( Note that both 'quotes' are established by the same number of 'prices'

Tuesday, January 5, 1999
1 Euro = 131.580 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.007600 Euro ( EUR )
Median price was 131.420 / 131.580 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 130.000 / 130.100
Maximum price was 132.830 / 133.010
75% of the prices were above 130.950 / 131.130 and below 132.110 / 132.310
Computed from a sample of 2199 prices on Tuesday, January 5, 1999
Classic 164 Currency Converter  1997-1998 by OANDA, Inc.

Tuesday, January 5, 1999
1 ECU = 131.580 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen ( JPY ) = 0.007600 ECU ( XEU )
Median price was 131.420 / 131.580 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 130.000 / 130.100
Maximum price was 132.830 / 133.010
75% of the prices were above 130.950 / 131.130 and below 132.110 / 132.310
Computed from a sample of 2199 prices on Tuesday, January 5, 1999
Classic 164 Currency Converter  1997-1998 by OANDA, Inc.

http://www.oanda.com/converter/classic

Euro-Nevada in financing deal
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990106/qz.html

Offsprings calls...good news/bad news...I view with interest the call for $6 silver and $325 gold. The call for most all commodities to then plunge, with gold going to $235-40, is not exactly a joyfull thought.

On the bright side, forewarned is forearmed. Interesting to see how this all plays out. I hope Chris is wrong. The world with $235 gold will not be pretty. Add $7 oil and $.55 copper and maybe Y2k is for real or some other such economic calamity.

Tom

And what is VERY interesting

When that info was downloaded LAST NIGHT from Oanda, the quotes were

1/5/99
1 ECU = 130.534 Japanese Yen
1 Euro = 131.580 Japanese Yen

Sothis is yet ANOTHER instance of revisionist data
All downloaded data is cut and paste to eliminate any possibility of transposition errors

Blastthis means go back and check every single quote to see ( 1 ) if it has been revised and ( 2 ) to what degree [this is not the first time quotes have been 'revised', quietly. Plays havoc with one's work.]

Quite honestly, did I not 'cut and paste' the entire quote, I would truly doubt that I have seen what I have seen.
Clever devils.

Quick peek at plat quotes and they are now in line ( 1/6/99 ) , so mayhap
they have completed whatever it was they were about...
We watch.

Bills would extend warranties, allow state to mobilize National Guard
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/tech/0104extend.asp

Heard settlement problems are creeping up since today was the actual official first day of settlements.

Probably not Y2K related?
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0105/f_ap_0105_25.sml

Wednesday January 6, 12:14 pm Eastern Time

Euro hits low vs dollar, talk ECB in market

NEW YORK, Jan 6 ( Reuters ) - The euro hit new lows against the dollar in U.S. morning trading
and some dealers said there had been market talk that the European Central Bank has been acting
to support the new currency.

The euro hit a low of $1.1685 in New York trading.

``There is talk that the European Central Bank is in the market trying to support the unit a little bit,'' said Mike Malpede, senior
currency analyst at Refco Group Ltd.

A spokeswoman for the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank said the bank would not comment on market rumors about
intervention.

Dealers said the euro began falling more quickly this morning shortly after the White House forecast a federal budget surplus of $76
billion, the largest in dollar terms in history, for the 1999 fiscal year which ends on September 30.

The dollar also received a lift from rallying U.S. stocks, buoyed by strong gains in technology, financial services and telecom shares.
Shortly after noon the Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.65 percent at 9464.90 points.

I admire your work. Keep it up. I do not doubt your findings. Fraud is universal. Question: who is getting taken to the cleaners on this? A 'pressure valve'? European manufacture? How much can they 'cycle' a trade in one day? Multipliers on leveraging? Seeing 0.2 to 1.0% differences. Is this a 'system' error being exploited ( win-lose ) or an agreed upon methodology ( win-win ) ? I think the latter.

Interesting JGB action, no?

Aren't you just a wee bit concerned that this market is just a wee bit over bought? If earnings are no longer a measure of value, then what? Are you comfortable with this situation???

currency that will be undermined by a bunch of wild eyed socialists?

Shifty-eyed Richard Butler was on CNBC denying that his inspectors spied for the USG in Iraq. He has about as much credibility as Klinton. He's nothing but an unprincipled, unethical, sniveling, USG toady. A disgrace to Australia & a disgrace to the human race.

Didn't seem to take very long for the Yen to strenghten significantly after the JGB was released from the loving arms of BoJ, did it? A new environment is being created. The flow as reversed.

http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/daily.asp

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990106/qz.html

CURRENT
MONTH AMOUNT

01/04/1999 $5,606,630,290,821.39

PRIOR
MONTHS


12/31/1998 $5,614,217,021,195.87
11/30/1998 $5,591,979,348,249.72
10/30/1998 $5,559,254,634,398.44
09/30/1998 $5,526,193,008,897.62
08/31/1998 $5,564,553,479,478.04
07/31/1998 $5,527,738,221,101.41
06/30/1998 $5,547,934,743,559.81
05/29/1998 $5,506,355,797,435.19
04/30/1998 $5,499,894,559,513.94
03/31/1998 $5,542,425,768,605.91
02/27/1998 $5,520,668,318,465.51
01/30/1998 $5,490,064,235,079.64



PRIOR FISCAL
YEARS


09/30/1998 $5,526,193,008,897.62
09/30/1997 $5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 $5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 $4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 $4,692,749,910,013.32

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

For 5 Jan 98 from OANDA:
USDJPY = 111.3300
EURUSD = 0.8477
EURJPY = 131.5800

But, 111.33 / 131.58 = 0.8461 which is NOT equal to EURUSD. Is this an indication of an inefficient market or of transaction costs? If so, then one is going to have to allow for a small variation with all calculated figures.

By the way, I also noticed that the average daily rate from historical tables option is different to the daily rate given by the classical converter.

Also, OANDA may be have had teething problems with ECU, or it was converting ECU equivalents by mistake using the reference rate of 31 Dec which has been corrected. Will have to watch this closely !
Is a mistake in my reasoning above ???

Glad I wasn't one of those speculators making large bets on the wholesale destruction of the U.S. dollar this week due to Euro's debut.

Wednesday January 6, 1:15 pm Eastern Time

Euro sinks to fresh low at US noon, dollar/yen jumps

NEW YORK, Jan 6 ( Reuters ) - The euro fell against the dollar to its lowest level since its debut
on Monday as dealers covered short dollar positions amid positive signs in U.S. stocks and U.S.
economic data.

Euro/dollar continued to slide to fresh lows, finally bouncing to a low of $1.1628 minutes before
noon. The unit stood at $1.1635 at noon, extending its losses from its first official official trade at
$1.1740 in Sydney on Monday.

Dealers short dollars got squeezed as dollar/yen climbed in line with U.S. stock market gains, triggering stop-loss orders and
bringing the pair nearer its session high.

The dollar's climb helped it regain some of the ground lost when it sank to a 27-month low at 110.46 yen on Tuesday.

``The market is very short dollar/yen, waiting for a reason to push it lower, but there's no follow-through at the moment,'' said Ivan
Sands, managing director of foreign exchange and treasury at Credit Lyonnais.

Concern over the possibility of lower European interest rates pressured the euro throughout the morning, after a major German
think-tank Wednesday predicted German economic growth could not exceed two percent this year. Previously another institute
slashed its 1999 growth rate to 1.4 percent.

"Appparently the settlement problem centered around German banks, who were did not follow proper settlement procedures. The problem was that German banks did not fill out payment messages as instructed by the Bundesbank."

Source: proprietary

Am I concerned market is overbought? You bet. P/E's are too high for a time when we're headed toward lower earnings in the quarters ahead. I wouldn't be an investor jumping in at these levels.... no sireee Bob.

But you recall 3 months ago, when bearish sentiment was everywhere...I mentioned that Bob Brinker was saying ( with very strong rationale to back him ) that we were at a market bottom and it was an excellent BUY opportunity..and that we'd make NEW HIGHS around the first of the year!

Brinker, never a one note CHarly..once again.....had PERFECT timing. This makes his record virtuallt flawless for calling IN ADVANCE vistually every up AND down move over the past few years.

Most of my investment pile is tied up in my own company. Loral. I moved that pile opf chips in back in Septmember when Loral was at $10.50 ( and acreamed for you other Kitcoites to do so if you recall ) . As of today, Loral has moved up 100% since then.

Ain't no Ebay, Yahoo or Amazon,com...but then there's an actual REASON for us to move up beyond hype, smoke, and mirrors. We currently have no earnings, but with a realistic business plan to achieve $4.00 or $5.00 earnings by 2001.

My worry is that when the internet stock bubble pops, it'll take the rest of the market with it..... We did after all, see a biit of a prelude in teh fall to the "fear" side of the market equation. I bought ZERO internet stocks, high etchs. et al for my discretionary portfolio. With the exception of a few thousand in Ebay on it's release because I was doing rare coin business there. I bailed out of Ebay when it crossed the $100 mark and made me 400% profit, prematurely it turns out...wish I'd have had a huge position.....but I'm not complaining. It's strictly a crap shoot with those stocks IMHO.

Do valuations still matter? They will in the long run. That's what the folks buying Ebay @ $240 per share are gonna find out. I'm not one of those who still believe they can time this greed factor pyramid scheme...., but you SURE can't complain about the savvy of the folks who bought in at $18.00 and are selling out now with a 1000% profit can you?

By the way... read an article today about the INSIDERS, CEO's and backers of the internet stocks...they're selling their shares en masse..uh huh...always the little guy who holds the bag yes?

TYoung, IMHO, if gold hits $325/oz., you would most likely trip a tremendous short covering rally and most likely a short squeeze...this is the main reason that gold has stayed in the $280/295 range for so long. Stops are most likely set at $300 and $315 and $323...I would think that there would be so much pain inflicted upon the shorts that it would trigger a massive rally...now if you would have said that the price of gold would go to $500 then to $230, I could have made sense of that because once the shorts cover, the price would spike up, just like in silver when Warren Buffett was around, then the shorts would come back in and sell it off...I would see this kind of movement as the beginning of a massive bull market move and launching pad....I patiently wait for this action........

TYoung, IMHO, if gold hits $325/oz., you would most likely trip a tremendous short covering rally and most likely a short squeeze...this is the main reason that gold has stayed in the $280/295 range for so long. Stops are most likely set at $300 and $315 and $323...I would think that there would be so much pain inflicted upon the shorts that it would trigger a massive rally...now if you would have said that the price of gold would go to $500 then to $230, I could have made sense of that because once the shorts cover, the price would spike up, just like in silver when Warren Buffett was around, then the shorts would come back in and sell it off...I would see this kind of movement as the beginning of a massive bull market move and launching pad....I patiently wait for this action........

PS...if this happens, Alan Greenspan will have a heart attack and die because it will mean the end of his rule/game.

back on Dec 24th. The premium paid was 27 ( 270bucks ) . Since then,
the premium has been trading in a range from 23 to 28 ( It may have
dipped lower ) . Well, I just looked at my screen ( Lind-Waldock live
quotes ) and it now shows that particular Gold call at a premium of
51! Now, either the quote system is screwed up, or someone just
paid almost double the amount of premium that its been trading at!
I'll get back with ya when I find out more....

I guess we should be able to see the end of day numbers, and find
out if this Gold call had a high of 51 or not. I'll let ya know...

The price targets are from John's son...Chris has been pretty good on some calls. E-wave analysis does not deal with the factors you noted. This, for better or worse. Certainly one would at least place stops in appropriate places considering Chris' record.

On AG...he retires in April...he either goes out as king of the greenback or the worst bum in history. I'm inclined to think KING.

I, unfortunately, also believe AG has conspired with the other monetary leaders to return the world to the gold standard. Let's see...less than four months to get that done...perhaps my odds are about one in a million. That, however, is my prediction and I'm sticking to it until AG retires.

Realistic...this is my contribution to your collection. Got to make someone happy. : )

Off...in search of ANOTHER fairy tale. Hi ho silver...away.

Tom

This is what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan meant in early
1995, when he told the Senate Banking Committee that
Mexicos peso crisis would not have happened if we were on a
gold standard.

http://www.polyconomics.com/

The conversations I have had during the past four or five days are an indication there is a major shift not being mentioned in the media and has been for some time now. People cannot stand Clintler and the polls are way off base. America is becoming an armed camp and Clintler is one of the MAIN reasons. People do not trust him, period.

People are worried about Y2K because their reckoning is that nobody really has a handle on what MIGHT happen. Faith in the governmentthere is NONE from what I can tell. People are stocking up on supplies and I am amazed at the amount of people that are becoming first time purchasers of weapons.

The general media is simply not accepted, people do NOT trust the media.

Who are these people?families, single people, all different ages and sexes, and from all sorts of cultural backgrounds and religionswhat I would call your basic folks. I was shocked to hear some of the comments I heard. From teenagers right up through and to Grandmothers and Grandfathers. And all over the USA

One thing I did hear over and over again was I will protect my family come hell or high waterand thats final!

Should be an interesting year as the media and government finally MEET the America they say they representand not the false and cooked BS they pass off to feed their faces

Got resilience??????

Seeing the DOW soar got me thinking again, I think. When the DOW goes up it's a neutral action, neither inflationary nor deflationary since for every share bought for a dollar one is sold so money leaves and enters circulation at the same rate. When the stock market goes down more money enters circulation than is tied up in stocks...inflation?

Seems to me the action on housing starts is the most inflationary since a lotta money enters circulation via the credit button, that's whats happening now. AG should be happy, no need to reduce rates, he can save his hole card.

Closeing in on 70,looking good. Hope it doesn't crash along with DOW.

I would think a gold backed euro insures a low gold price.Is it not a cheaper exercise to control the POG then to engage in a currency war to maintain an acceptable balance.
Just a thought
Hats off to Kitco and its posters best site on the net

Microsoft announced that release of WINDOWS 2000 will be delayed until the second quarter of 1901.

I am back from the insane assylm. Momma sent me there after learning that I had bought some more GRERF. This baby is going down and I know it, but I just could'nt help myself.

( This post reads better if you whistle "The Bonnie Blue Flag" while reading it. )

My friend, you are young and I am happy to see that you have wanted for little in your life. It grieves me though to see a generation growing up without history nor thought of the truly massive struggles which come from time to time to keep us free. So they are prey to a thousand fears and shrink before adversity.

I think it is vital to understand todays events from historical perspective. One of my favorite college professors had been a Russian Jew whose family brought him to America in 1913. Even though he personally knew nothing of the struggle they endured in revolutionary Russia he was always blessed with a sense of history so that he was able to feel the heart of his achievements; when he struggled to learn his biochemistry it brought honor to his family. Another teacher had been a US Marine in the mud of the Pacific campaign during WWII and another had struggled against polio which stunted his growth and twisted his limbs.

One would hope that you wouldn't lose heart as you see the chaos developing. Didn't you once tell us you were an Armenian? In that case you would have older relatives who could tell you of the great genocide the Turkish empire did against that people and their own great struggles to escape and come to a free country then learn the language and establish themselves.

One should not look so much to the uncertainties of the present but upon his own strengths and those of his family to help him through bad times. A little gold or silver would probably help but the primary thing to understand is that the past will teach you how to handle the future if for no other reason than by teaching how to deal with change.

( Oops, preaching again, sorry. )

1.1595 Change: -0.0162 ( -1.38% )

1.1595 Change: -0.0162 ( -1.38% )

argi-nellie....similar to chop-asaki....

what the hell? 'stuff' up... AND toilet paper?
insane buying......the peopleo herd has broken
their kraal and are running up the mountain...
the mountain goes on and on and on and on.......journey..
as do the carbo-peopleo-earth-anouts.....

the cliffs of dover await them.....just when it could
not get any better......they will wish they were flying
fish.....their carcasses will cover the earth......and
soil the sea...

that which is today spurned......tomorrow is coveted.....
gold, grains, and crude come to mind......options like
a big chicken on all 3......for me...yar.

saw cnn announce the SOHO satellite has been shut down due
to gyro problems--late last night....this WAS the satellite that took the
photos of the sun cruisers....it imaged many spectrums...
now it reflects the images of lies....

!;..dotssmfatimb......with.the.submariner.......

gagnrad
Brabo!

Envy
My pleasure.

Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth.
Henry David Thoreau

a mutt and have heard the stories and seen the physical scars as well as the emotional ones...my understanding of historical events is keen and is certainly not biased nor founded in an American perspective...I have not lost heart...I appreciate the thoughts you imparted in your post to me...but I was well prepared much earlier in life and have both feet firmly planted on the ground both physically and mentally...

The Yikes! in my post was my surprise in the width and breadth of the cross-section of people and the feelings and thoughts I have been exposed to in the past several days...

I am calm as a clam in the deepest mud...but a whole bunch of folks out there are real antsy...that is for sure...

Lookin for leads on captionally noted as friend has 30,000 shares. He thinks-gone kaputska. Used to be listed on VSE-search on same revealed negative. Anyone with knowledge? TIA.

Tom

ECB starts monetary union with high net foreign currency reserves
FRANKFURT, Jan 5 ( AFP ) - The European Central Bank ( ECB ) said on
Tuesday that its net foreign currency reserves totalled 227.4
billion euros ( 268.3 billion dollars ) on January 1.
"According to the opening financial statement of the eurosystem
on January 1 ... the net position in foreign currency amounted to
227.4 billion euros, whereby assets of 237 billion euros were
opposed to liabilities of 9.6 billion euros," the ECB said in a
statement.
In addition, the stock of gold of the euro system amounted to
99.6 billion euros, the ECB said.

COMMENT: This puts gold at 43% of total Euro reserves.


Russia Central Bank reserves dwindle to 11 billion dollars
MOSCOW, Dec 31 ( AFP ) - The Russian Central Bank's gold and
foreign currency reserves have slid to little over 11 billion
dollars, bank chairman Viktor Gerashchenko said on ORT television
Wednesday.
Reserves have shrunk because the Central Bank has been paying
Russia's foreign debts maturing in 1999-2000 in order to prevent a
default, Gerashchenko stated.
Central Bank reserves stood at 18.0 billion dollars a year ago,
and were boosted in July by a four-billion-dollar IMF loan tranche.
But while the reserves have shrunk alarmingly this year, the
gold portion has increased sharply. Gold reserves have grown by 69
million tonnes this year to stand at 515 million tonnes on December
1, ITAR-TASS quoted a senior metals official at the Bank as saying.

COMMENT: While they default on debts their gold stack increases, how long will the paper pushers stomach this?

This is what many Kitcoites have said in the past.
The Euro will be very weak when it said 15% foreign gold reserves. If the ECB had backed gold at 30-35%, then truly the Dolloar would sink.

Think about it, who would want to risk investing in a NEW currency unless there is a SIGNIFICANT backing with gold.

This should teach the ECB a lesson, I hope the Euro sinks into oblivion as some say. I also hope it soars agains the US$.

The staus quo is what hurst gold the most.

My oh my, are we in for a ride now! Volatility with a capital V. Got seatbelts?

Today high caps were up, low caps were up, gold was up. silver was up, bonds were up, the dollar was up.

Did I say yhe dollar was up? I meant to say the dollar was UP! Big time up.

Infact that's why commodities, stocks, bonds, and anything else you can buy with a buck was up.

Of course all that up when many big funds were betting on at least a few downs has put some real FIRE in several of them thar holes.

There's gonna be some real rebounding and bounding going on.

Wake up world, the Snake is back.

Last years story was the high dollar and the hot money hurricane. This years story will be the volatile dollar and the uncertain money earthquake.

The Euro was bid up by optimistic Euro fans and large short positions taken against the dollar. Today in a sort of buy-on-the-rumor sell-on-the-news effect the positions largely unwound.

Now the hot money goes sloshing around looking for a new home. Will it be the dollar? the Euro? Gold? Silver? Bonds? Stocks?

The year of darkness will have a whole lot of shaken goin on.

It's time to learn everything you can about day trading, the new game in town.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990106/86.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990106/bbd.html

Help Wanted:
USAJOBS FEDERAL -- OPEN TO EVERYONE
----------------------------------------------------CONTROL NO DS0930
ASYLUM OFFICER
OPEN PERIOD 01/06/1999 - 01/20/1999
SERIES/GRADE: GS-0930-09/
SALARY: $ 33,876 TO , ANNUAL PROMOTION POTENTIAL: GS-12
ANNOUNCEMENT NUMBER: DS-9-04-0182-FG
DUTY LOCATIONS: 0003 HOUSTON, TX

http://www.usajobs.opm.gov/wfjic/jobs/DS0930.HTM

Should be gold is 30.4% of total euro reserves not 43%....gold is "in addition" to the foreign currencies.

Still well up from the well trumpeted 15%...anybody seen any press why the euro gold reserve percentage has been doubled?

Asked about Clintons response that it felt not bad to have been impeached, Byrd said, I was sorry that he gave that response. One cannot be flippant ... and theres a certain arrogance about it.

Of the presidents appearance with House Democrats minutes after he was impeached, Byrd said it was an an egregious display of shameless arrogance the likes of which I dont think I have seen.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/229326.asp

http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/01/06/timfgnmid01003.html?1124027

All: The market ( NERO ) fiddles, and the Senate moves to full trial -- and witnesses -- without time limits. Just how long will it take for the markets to realize that the Senate is not to be upstaged by the House? This is the first time in US history an elected president has been impeached. If WJC presents a rigorous defense on all issues, he may ignite a firestorm in the Senate.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990106/V000774-010699-idx.html

Wm Rhenquist ( presiding ) is touted as being scrupulously fair, and I suspect the Republican Senators will be just as fair as the Republican House members. It is likely that the Dems will again be boisterous.

Just wait till WJC is labeled as a 'deadbeat dad' as AURIC ( I think ) predicted last Jan 1998. If the current child is not identified as his, the next one almost certainly will, since WJC's DNA is now public record. The tide is turning! Please beware a sudden market downturn, probably within the next three to six months. The suction then could bring down all equities. Until then -- likely good gold bug Tsunami surfing. And my opinion is worth just what you paid for it!

That 99.6 billion uro gold reserve amounts to 403 million oz for the european area. Is this the sum and total of the ECB and other CB holdings in the uro area.

As far as the russian reserves there is a unit error those figures are in miilions of oz not tonnes:
"Gold reserves have grown by 69 million tonnes this year to stand at 515 million tonnes on December" or are the millions the modifier that is an error eg millions of oz or just tonnes?

These ar interesting figures. I could probably find which units are correct, but if you know then all of us would benefit.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990106/V000735-010699-idx.html

Did Greenspan lower rates again or something ? *grin*. Just kidding, but only barely. I see my dollars did well today, but my equity PUT options didn't do well at all. Big caps out-performed everything I've got.

I wondered also if the euro gold figure includes gold in member states banks.

The Russian figures are clearly wrong.

I just cut and pasted both articles from newswires in my mailbox. It's just crazy these reports could allow such huge errors to go circulating about. Shows how important gold is regarded by the media....who cares if Russia has 515 tonnes or 515 million tonnes, right?!!!!
I bet AG cares.

Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 23:41
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
The first 5 trading days of January usually determine the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year. Watch out for the next two day -- they are important.
Investors will quickly learn about the terms: DEFLATION, THE GREATEST STOCK MARKET CRASH OF ALL TIME, and TOTAL COLLAPSE.
Gold and silver offer the only safety in the coming monetary collapse.

Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 22:47
vronsky ( IT'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS IN THE FAR-EAST ) ID#426220:
Far-Eastern stock markets are being literally WASTED TONIGHT! It's a debacle... a blood-bath! This WILL inevitablly affect the rest of the world! The Domino Effect is highly contagious! The ULTIMATE flight to safety will be to the immemorial refuge: G-O-L-D!!!!!

Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 15:42
steady ( The Time is at Hand ) ID#285233:
The paper bull is in BIG trouble. With the 30 yr bond rates down to record lows over the last few months and market unable to even lick 8,000??? The DOW is lower now then back in August when the rates were 3/4 % hihger.
I say no manipulation can lift it much from where they are now. Only one directionn left:down.

Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 12:51
farfel ( FARFEL ELABORATES ON PERCEPTION RE: GOLD! ) ID#28585:
I offer my humble services and intellectual analyses to assist in the conceptualization and elaboration of the "New Gold Paradigm"

Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 17:56
cherokee__A ( @----high-water-mark---- ) ID#344308:
major flooding precipitates major drought this spring and summer!!!!
grains going to the moon this year ( 98 ) . waiting for the train to stop before climbing aboard........

but it is not..."In fact, little legislation is customarily brought to the floor in January or early February, so the lawmakers have a window to deal with impeachment."

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990106/V000774-010699-idx.html

Kiwi: Any idea how that number of 43% gold reserves ( or so ) was calculated? It is easy to get confused, given that the vast excess of trade is still in non-Euro currency. Gold reserves are needed for both external and internal use.

I don't know for sure which is which, though I suspect that we should be looking at external reserves for the Euro, and internal reserves for all of the current non-Euro trade. I would guess that if we are able to decipher the mumbo-jumbo, we will find that total gold reserves ( internal and external ) are not that 43% or so. I suspect it will be closer to the 15% we have already heard about.

But -- if the Euro falters, they will bring up the reserves -- namely whatever is necessary to make the Euro launch a success. That might include 'buying' gold -- which would make the price of gold go up -- and boost the Euro at the same time, since the Europeans have such considerable gold reserves to boost their currency. It will be interesting to see what the US FED does in a down-and-out shooting matche between the Euro and the US dollar.

Wednesday's huge Dow rally was accompanied by fewer than 2 advancing issues for every 1 declining issue. In a real bull market, the ratio would be well above 4:1. This is a final fake rally as in early 1930 and early 1973. Caveat emptor ( let the buyer beware! ) .

http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/

I suspect that this figure for the uro area includes all official holdings. This would explain the jump to 30% you stated. I have some figures at the world gold council. will check this out, and report to group.

The russians are holding $4.77 billion in gold, maybe I'll call my good buddy billyG and see if he'd like to diversify his portfolio a bit. I wonder if they would consider a bit of MSFT for a swap? Heehee. BBL.

The Euro/gold numbers with 30.4% gold backing seems o.k.

Most problably the Russian gold reserves are 515 tons. This would approximately equate to 17 million ounces.

Nobody needs to worry about the 515 million tons. There is not so much gold.

I think you all might do well in paying particular attention to the 290 Feb GOLD area in the very near term.

I'm truly amazed at the stock valuations. I'm also convinced that most of the people buying stocks have no clue what they're buying. Someday the music will stop and anyone holding equity paper will be left holding it, they did buy it after all, it's theirs until they sell it. Are people thinking about what they're buying ? I'm not so sure. I guess people are buying stocks under the assumption that someone will be there tomorrow offering more money than they paid today, there aren't a lot of other things you could believe after watching this thing fly. The euphoria will wear off, it always does. When that happens, some people are going to be holding money, and some people are going to be holding equity paper in the midst of falling earnings and an absence of buyers. You just know that the "regular Joe"s of the world will be the ones holding the paper, they just don't know the game as well as the folks who do the trading on the floor. It's funny to me that people who are buying stocks right now honestly believe that the price they paid has something to do with what they're going to get back when they want to sell. Even the ones who know the true nature of the thing believe they're going to get out in time, that they'll be one of the smart ones. They just don't understand that all it takes is a single day, just one day when people decide not to buy stocks anymore. On that day, whoever is left holding paper will have to keep it, because the days of bidding up prices session after session will be over.

After exhaustive research ( 15 min ) I have determined that those 99.6 billion uro of gold do NOT include other CB reserves. See:

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Gios/5/Oct1998.pdf
Gold in the official sector

It is an adobe doc.

If anyone cares I'll do a screen dump and post as a bitmap here ( official gold reserves chart only ) .

as I'm sure has been posted here before. These figures seem to agree with the 99.6 figure as EMI totals and memeber nations transfers to the ECB in net terms equal 10752 tonnes.

BBL again.

Envy -- Just amazing what the specialists can 'mark' a stock at, ain't it... Besides, it is by far the mutual funds, not the individual investors as most are dealing through 401K plans.

EBAY up 59 pts. 100 shares @ $ 28,900 would have yielded $ 5,900.00 today. That's a 20+% return on investment in one day! EBAY is up over 1500% in the last year!

By the way how much was Gold up today?

I wish I was exhuberatly irrational today.

HighRise

Dow at 9544. A new record high. Hmmmmm..... will it last? Probably not.

But you time will tell.

Dow at 9544. A new record high. Hmmmmm..... will it last? Probably not.

But only time will tell.

Like having a thousand beanie babies just before Christmas, every kid wants one, the parents can't find them anywhere, people will pay anything to make sure one goes under the tree. It's soft, it's cute! I just have to have one, I'll do anything, I'll PAY anything! Just give me a friggin beanie baby! Look honey, there's a guy selling beanie babies at the edge of the road, let's stop and buy a bunch and sell them at the office! Oh, but then after Christmas it's just a rag doll that you paid too much money for. Not only that, but you've borrowed money to hoard up a thousand of the damn things and nobody wants them.

They are all caught up in the mutual fund craze, most would not know how to buy a stock. It is so easy to commit fraud,some are such suckers, they deserve to be taken. Be happy for them, they in a matter of time will become well educated in the school of hard knocks.
I think they call the uneducated young urbanites or somthing,,,,, plain stupid will do.

Someday investors are going to look back on 06 Jan 99 as the day they paid 151.25$US for a share of Microsoft, a stock with earnings of 2.04$US per share. On that day, I have to admit I'll be laughing a little. Until then, I'll take my beating like a man.

longj thanks for the clarification.

If the figures given in my 17:13 post are correct as stated by the ECB of their reserve holdings as at Jan. 1, then this is indeed important.

As longj points out, 10 752 tonnes was transferred to the ECB by member states....worth about 99.6 billion euros. Other foreign currency holdings total 227.4 billion euros, total sum reserves 327 billion euros.

Gold makes up 30.4% of euro reserve backings upon it's introduction. This is the figure we have all been waiting for since July 98 when ECB stated they would hold "more than 15% gold reserves" for the euro. You bet it is more...it is 30%, a figure that would have sent gold skyrocketing back in July....now it is quietly slipped on by. Is this figure of 30% to be maintained? If so gold buying by ECB is not unthinkable as foreign reserves grow......makes you wonder doesn't it?

Envy -- 'Orderly markets': the specialists define their own 'terms'...

Have to confess here my crystal ball has not been so clear. That was a tongue-in-cheek post a few days ago re my predictions for 1998, supposedly made on Jan 5, 1998. Would that I were so prescient!

+2 @ +6 BUY!!
http://wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

EBAY will be @ 500 by then. Then it will be a really good deal!

HighRise

It won't be long till BEARX will be at "0" if not @ a minus number.

BEARX
Jan 6
4.75
-0.19 -3.85%

HighRise

Nice 'memory' and memories! We see that some comments look severe in retrospect, but you missed my reply to friend vronsky comment that very same night when I called him to the mat on his 'vampirish' tendancies.
Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 23:27
Mooney* ( Are We All Having Fun Yet! ) ID#348169:
Happy New Year All!
vronsky, my friend, are you imbibing tonight or are your vapirish ( sic ) tendancies coming out? Is there a full moon? Blood indeed!
And 223 - I thought we did away with the one of "hebephrenic" tendancies last Fall?
Was shocked when I tuned in last night and saw that the posts are as good as ever and multiplied by a factor of two! How the heck do we keep up? What's the name of that speed reading instructor?
Can't say Hello to each individual on my first time back in the New Year - But - HELLO TO ALL!
Date: Tue Jan 06 1998 23:56
Selby ( ) ID#286230:
Earl: where on the globe do they serve "Old Style"?

Back again in 1999 - And in case Selby never had that question answered, it used to be brewed only in B.C., but it appeared in Ontario in 1998 - Big Flop!
Well here we are a year later and the bubble continues. Historic new Dow highs - 10,000 approaching and just in time for Kubrick's classic 2001 the Dow looks also ready to hit the moon at 15,000! Gold by then will hit the Elliott Wavers $140 and I'll be working as a third class seaman on an Antarctic cruiseship hoping to it becomes another Titantic.

Very well put.

Not only will there be a lot of people left holding equity papaer where once they had cash paper, but many of those people borrowed money in order to buy the stock. They end up with LESS than nothing.

Which means they can't repay the bank.

Which means the bank can't pay it's depositors.

Which means that many of the people left holding cash, don't have anything either.

But then, it was never there to begin with, was it?

Of course, many deposits are insured by the government.

Which means more money will be printed to cover the banks.

Which means that even those with cash under their pillow won't have as much buying power as they thought they had.

Makes a person think about gold or silver or something, doesn't it?

From what I can see,this global blowoff was created by the introduction of the Euro. And the up move was because the Euro was strong against the dollar. Well, by noon today the dollar was stronger than the Euro introduction rate and all the European markets were already closed with thier big gains.
It wouldn't surprize me to see all this weeks gains around the globe evaporate by the middle of next week.

Quite a day in the markets today, wasn't it? Let me look into my crystal ball and see where things go from here. Hmmmnnn. I see a big run up into summer, followed by a fall in the autumn, and a sharp recovery into the next year:

http://www.bigcharts.com/chart.asp?symb=rut&time=20&freq=2?idx=aaaaa%

Oooops I was looking at the wrong chart. That one is for the broadbased 1998 view. Let me readjust the knob:

http://www.lowrisk.com/image/29crash.gif

There we go. Hmmmn. Looks a lot the same. Late runup into the beginning of the next year....

Oh gosh, wrong time again. Must be something wrong with this time adjust knob. I'll have to see if I can fix it. Looks like some kind of Y2K bug. I'll get back with you later.

I've been down on gold and equities, big on the buck. I have to admit, though, that even I'm thinking about stopping for a minute to pick some of this worthless gold and silver up off the street. It's bound to be worth something one of these days. That is, if I can safely get out in the street to pick it up without being getting killed by the stampede of folks trying to get to their broker's office. Buying precious metals makes me feel like some homeless guy trying to find a scrap of food in somebodies trash.

hammered this month...lots of time left for a dive...

Dow/Gold Ratio = 33.14. ( this is a new high ) The 233 day moving average is 29.60

XAU/Spot Ratio = .237. The 233 day moving average is .247

Today I sit and look at my gold investments which are down about 70% in the last year. I cast my eyes across my neighbors yard and see the new Mercedes, his $250,000 dollar boat and dream of the vacation at his Colorado hideaway that he has cheerfully said my wife and I can use. He paid for all this in cash this year from profits in some silly internet stocks.

I have tried to explain for the past 3 years how stocks are over valued, and how he should buy gold. His comment is, why should he buy gold when he can double his money in the market. He explains that times are different and net stocks can't be valued the same way as other stocks because of growth potential. My neighbor, gee I feel sorry for him and his family when the market crashes.

yup, if gold was my woman.....I'd whoop up on 'er and split, baby.

she's soooooooooo bOring....let's me and you short 'dat natural gas.....besides bud and hooch, it's the only commod left unscathed.

GO GOLDBUGS!!!

As much as I would like to see the trend in gold and silver turn up, I just don't see it happening yet. Granted , price follows momentum and the short term momentum in trader commitments has turned up. The same as it did early last year. And there are other factors that are positive for gold too. Sales of gold coins are up a hugh amount because of Y2K fears.
With the manic buying that is giong on,even a y2k crash of a global
exchange might not turn the trend.
There is the possibility that gold and silver have been pushed down to far
and need a rebound for awhile.
It is probably y2k that will have to change the trend!!

I like your Bag Lady analogy of us old gold bugs. Mmmm...Let's see, tonight I'll cover me park bench with a few sheets of TVX and, oh yeah, tomorrow I can line me ol' pre-Nike sneakers with a few shreads of Hecla.

Gold? Who needs it!

So glad all those young YUPPIE stock success stories keep throwing it in the trash.

CRB & Gold are beginning new bull chapters now;
meanwhile final blow-off in stocks ...mesmerizes and
corrals the "herd", as it targets 10,000 on the Dow.

Quietly perhaps at first, and mostly unnoticed,
gold will rise.....
and rise & rise & rise....
until it shines
across the world....
restoring order
rescuing nations.....
and the money metal will usher in a new dawn
of "Economic-Spring" - some day......
and all that, after having faithfully
kept us "safe & warm" ........ during a perhaps protracted
and miserable "Economic-Winter" .....
a winter that could persist a decade or more
if the "pied-piper-fools" currently running the world
don't wake-up soon
before they rush off the lemmings sea-cliffs,
taking legions of innocent, distracted, mesmerized millions....
with them

................

and the blind continue to lead the blind
and the poor are always with us
and the more things change, they remain the same
and Nero still fiddles, for now over "impeachment"
meanwhile Rome, and the whole world
are burning....
___________________________
a clue for where gold is going in the days ahead...
can be found perhaps
in the most recent five day chart of HM
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=HM&d=5d

Midnights nightmare - Millenium Bug
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/990104/news/news67.html

Chaos warning
http://www.press.co.nz/01/99010632.htm

Lawmaker Says It's Too Soon To Call On National Guard For Y2k
http://webserv1.startribune.com/cgi-bin/stOnLine/article?thisStory=65765030

It Could Be A Very Dark Day
http://www.dmregister.com/news/stories/c4780940/6414017.html

2000 Bug Threat To Hospitals
http://www.press.co.nz/01/99010631.htm

Bug puts byte on harbour master's chips
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/Mar-Template.idc?artid=19990105015238060?=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=4797

BEAR-X @ 4.75, BGEIX @ 5.73, VENGF @ 9/16, LIHRY ADR's @ 23--bargains bargains everywhere! To sell high you must first buy low! Jan. 1999 will be the best buying opportunity for gold stocks and BEAR-X we will ever get! The time to buy is NOW!! The internet mania will run into a brick wall by early Feb. as the number of new internet issues exhausts new capital in-flows. The results of the internet mania collapse will be a devastating bear market back to 7500 and below! The Y2K debacle and Clinton trial will send the DOW reeling back to 4800 or lower by the end of the year! The new Russia/India/China coalition will mean huge government military spending this year and the beginning of a new arms race that, coupled with a plunging dollar and soaring yen, will end the era of disinflation and cause a new flight to hard assets! Buy the stuff now while you can and sit on your hard assets for all of 1999-2000! The seeds of change have been sown and are now ready to sprout and bear fruit! The DOW DUMPSTERS are all oiled and greased and ready for action! AG will be orchestrating their activities! As I said, fellow Kitcoites, HAPPY NEW YEAR!! Heh..heh..heh!

PS to all who think I am Hasheesh: Sheesh, at least I know that the biblical book Hasheesh refers to as Revelations is really titled, "The Revelation of St. John the Divine ( the theologian ) !" By the way, the number 144,000 cannot be taken literally--like much of this book it is a symbolical number ( 12 ( the number of the prophets ) times 10 cubed ( the number of completeness cubed, indicating that all OT saints will be in heaven ) times 12 ( the number of the apostles and the church ) times 10 cubed, indicating that all NT saints will be in heaven ) , hence the number 144,000 is not a literal number, but a figurative one indicating that all believers in Jesus, the Christ will be safely in heaven while the world and its unbelieving inhabitants are utterly and thoroughly destroyed! "Let him that hath ears to hear, hear what the Spirit saith to the churches!" Wiedsersehen, meine Freunde!

There IS a lot of that stuff laying around. One hesitates to trade in their allmighty allpowerfull paper dollar for it, but then one can get so MUCH of it right now.

If you need to go out in the street and if the 1929/1930 chart is any guide, it looks like there is a quiet period between stampedes coming up between now and the end of first quarter when the next stamped back in the opposite direction comes along.

Studio -- You're definitely having toooooooo much fun! Requires another beer to put things into more proper perspective.

At the end, all will go up together, for a short time. 'Short time'; a term used overseas for a 'good time'!

KitcO is our "das Boat".........a.uuuuuu...ga.........DIVE!!!!

EldO, picture me this way......here we are in da' early pre-Crustaceous epoch, huddled in our dark cave...starving...shivering....when tolerant and you jump up any say....!!! "We've gotta' get some meat or we're goin' freeze and starve to death!!! "Studio...let's GO, man!!...We ain't got no other choice!!" "AWaaaay!!!"

And ol' muse-man studio.stupidO just sits there plucking his stretched strip o' sinew....apluck...apluck...pluck....hummmm...hummm....then he finally looks up to ya' with his glassed-over eyes and says "HUH?"....

salud! EldO!!!

http://nt.excite.com:80/news/bw/990105/rayrock-resources

Vengold traded 4,829,650 shares today in Toronto closing at 0.82 and down -0.11. The big seller was Midland and one of their trades was a cross of 4,384,850 shares. Would appreciate any input you have on this. Vielen Dank Mein Freund

I think the best reason to buy it is just that there isn't anything else to buy. I'd love to buy one of those 30 year dollar multipliers, but bonds are stupid expensive and I'd rather have one when they multiply a lot better. Dollars are expensive, who knows how long that'll last, makes you want to trade 'em in for something else. Stocks, no way, I don't care how high they go I ain't buy'n them. I don't know, it's just too confusing, it's making my head hurt. I'd feel better about my dollars if the FED wasn't printing them like they were going out of style, that M3 graph is scary.

http://www.zupkus.com/jim/tabloid_evil_bert.htm

Studio -- Yaaaaah! More crustaceans! Schimp, lobster.... No problemo.... Uhmmmm, goooood!
But I still think you need to buy more beer!

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- New home purchases surged to a record high in November and, even without December's figure, 1998 already is the best year for new home sales since the government began tracking them 35 years ago. The boom -- and shopping for trimmings such as furniture and appliances -- is helping the U.S. economy weather spillover on American factories and farms from the global economic slump. According to economist Robert Barr of Fannie Mae, housing construction -- which represents only about 4 percent of the nation's economic output -- accounted for roughly a seventh of last year's growth.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1a.htm

for his greenspan comments a day o' two back.......veeery good thinkin'....salud! ( your words did not go unnoticed! )

EldO y Envy.O......we shall buy mo' beer with these worthing-less dollars...si'?

studio.saving.eurOs.y.schlitzes

That's what appears to have been transfered to Euro Central. That is probably 30.4% of these nation's gold, eh? The ECB control is also over the other 2/3rds. I think I remember enough of the figures that Italy, France and Germany's piles totaled about 30,000+ tonnes, if I'm not mistaken.

So that leaves us with 41,118 tonnes as total gold from which they drew 30.4% into visible 'reserves, leaving 28,618 tonnes in the local Central Banks' vaults. If France, Italy and Germany's hoard amounted to about 30,000 then we must ask where the other 11,000+ tonnes came from. I'm not at all convinced that countires such as Denmark sold outside for the European clan. That gold was swapped within Eurpoean banks for currency to pay bills.

But my recollection is that the other nations didn't have that much gold ( 11,100 tonnes combined, assuming 30.4% draw down ) . Maybe I'm wrong here. But could the Europeans have been buying all this time. We know that Poland and Russia have been buying. Why not the ECB/Euro group??? Especially if they think it would be a weapon of unequalled value in the coming currency wars.

Got Gold???
Go Gold

Read it in two different places that Speculative Commodity Funds have increased their short positions on Gold by 20,000 contracts recently. Only thing is that it hasn't moved our precious much lower at all. A big time short covering rally could happen. Where's Farfel? Has anyone found anything more about the new celestial bodies aka "The Sun Cruisers"?

Would be a great party place, untill recently.

Can you imagine if the lights went off then & there.

the best reason to buy gold is because its the cheapest thing around realtive to some definition of its intrinsic value. However, it isn't going anywhere, hasn't gone any where but down, but because by most standards it is cheap it's a buy????.

I don't think so....I think the CRB, the metals, oil, sugar have a two week rally here with the CRB getting back up to 200-205 if oil can get to 13.50, then commodities run out of steam and with stocks turn and come tumbling down to new lows in the deflationary cycle.

I see falling stock prices, falling metals and falling oil after the second week in January, but maybe that's just because I'm hungry and feeling a little bit depressed that I don't own Yahoo.

I'm wanting for some irrational exhuberance.

DOW 10,000 before GOLD $315!!!!!

Maybe it's time to give the real estate market in Japan the dollars it wants. I'm betting some of those apartment complexes in downtown Tokyo are getting to be pretty good deals about now. All kinds of folks are probably dumping property or bailing out on loans, maybe it's time to help 'em out a little ? Even better, I bet your average Russian will trade you some real estate for a coupla bucks.

All:

Happy New Year.

The rally in the equities market is just more of the same. The valuations are of absolutely no consequence as absurd as they are, they will get more absurd until one and only one thing derails this market and that is the decline of the bond market.

As long as the bond market does not force the Fed to raise rates to a level which curtails the current rampaging growth of money ( credit ) , the price of the favored assets in this inflation ( stocks ) will continue to rise.

The idea that the financial markets would decline as a result of a nominal deflation has always had the achilles heel of the Fed money printing response. This has been amply demonstrated in the last quarter. As the market began to decline and gather steam on the downside amidst the so called deflationary contagion, the Fed merely stepped in, lowered already low interest rates and caused yet another cycle of surging money growth to ensue. Voila, the Dow is rescued.

The only thing that will kill the market is the rise in asset prices of things which require real economic effort to duplicate them. If the price of Amazon.com goes to 100 billion dollars all that happens in the real economy is that 1000 other Internet IPO's are launched in an effort to cash in on the mania. Since there is very little economic effort ( labor, capital and materials ) required to create one of these things there is no ensuing strain on the economy in terms of resource allocation. Hence there is no effect on the bond market. However, let the price of real assets begin to rise and all of a sudden people are scrambling to build the assets because their price is well higher than the current production cost. In creating a building, a lumber mill, a copper mine or cargo ship there is real economic effort expended, and the economy has just so much of it to go around. Once it is spoken for then we get into that situation known as inflation and bond holders are unhappy.

Bear markets are brought about by the absence of liquidity ( money/credit growth ) and not by anything so rational as the notion of overvaluation. Valuation is useful at the other end of the rainbow, but not here.

To get a sense of the extraordinary happening over the last few years one need only look at the growth in money. From Jan 1989 to Jan 1995, a period of 72 months, about $400 billion of money was created through the combination of outright printing and expansion of bank credit. In the ensuing 48 months, or 2/3's of the time, an unbelievable $1.6 trillion dollars of new cash has been created. It is little wonder that some asset prices have gone ballistic.

If you want to know when the stock market will end, simply watch the bond market. If you want to know when the bond market will end, simply watch the commodities markets. If you want to know when the commodities markets will rise, keep an eye on the economies which basically stopped consuming them a year and a half ago and see if things change. Korea for example, has now registered 4 consecutive months of gains in industrial production.

Given the outsized speculative short positions which exist across the commodities sector, it would not be surprising, if the first move off the bottom was an explosive short covering rally. That inventory levels of many commodities are extraordinarily low relative to their price, allows for the possibility of instant short squeezes and severe backwardations.

Gold will have its time, but it will not be because of spiraling deflation. Instead it will be the recognition that the Fed is unable to curtail inflation pressure because doing so would destroy the credit pyramid.

Tks Donald-Just what I needed.

Another Tom

One HELL of a great post!! I think I actually understood it too!

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Stocks soared to new highs Wednesday as the bull market showed no signs of fading, putting the Dow Jones industrial average within striking distance of the magic 10,000 mark.

The Dow ended up 233.78 points, or 2.5 percent, at 9,544.97, surpassing the Nov. 23 record finish of 9,374.27. It was the seventh-biggest point gain ever for the Dow.

In the broader market, advancing issues beat declines 2,006 to 1,090 on active volume of 977 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Nasdaq composite index jumped 69.59 points, or 3 percent, to its fourth straight record at 2,320.86 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 27.56, or 2.2 percent, to 1,272.34, a new high.

``We've got a number of factors working here,'' said Jack Shaughnessy, chief investment strategist at Advest in Boston.

He said the creation of the euro, the new European currency, had lifted European markets and was psychologically giving all global markets a boost.

Strong liquidity and excitement over merger and acquisition activity also boosted the market.

``We had $1.6 trillion of M&A last year and this year could be equally strong. It's palpable,'' Shaughnessy said.

The bulls also got a lift from a strong report on new U.S. home sales, which reached a record in November. The Commerce Department said new home sales jumped 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 965,000, beating Wall Street's expectations.

But not all the forecasts were good. Morgan Stanley chief market strategist Barton Biggs told Reuters Television that the current bull market might have a few more months left in it, but that it was fundamentally unsustainable.

``This is based on liquidity provided by the central banks, but it is a bubble and, as we know, bubbles eventually come to a bad end,'' he said.

and got out of bonds Monday nite. A day late, a dollar short.
Now have cash, but Gold and BEARX seem the only places left to go.

It's hard ridin' stayin' in front of this stampede,
tantalus gonna circle back & shoot 'em in the @ss.

I also heard Barton Biggs refer to today's rally as "Panic Buying", which I thought was an accurate description.

WoW!!! kudOs y salud!!!

net cashflowless sandstone 'neath the credit pyramid...kaboooom-time in Giza.

Extremely well put. Looking at the oscillation range and cyclicity of the CRB spot index one can well imagine that the turn in commodities ( driven by the cycle of economic demand ) is getting close to hand.

http://www.crbindex.com/crbspot/crb-b7.gif

The following scenario, but it does take some mental ability
to see pictures in your mind.

We are now in the final stage, ( leg-#5 ) , of this BULL.
We may see a large head and shoulder pattern develping, this
portion being the head, the left shoulder already in place.
We see, that is picture in our minds, a parabolic configuration
of a long bull trend, which, like a bell curve, slows as it makes
its turn at a top, then starts its descent, slowly at first and then
speed increases on the way down.
We know from past experience, that a down move is approximately
1/2 of the up move, in time. This then may be calculated on the
basis of the bull having started in '74, or '82, your choice, and
should take us to--2009-2013, before the final bottom is in.

Gold during this period, goes in the opposite direction, you may
decide all the fundamental, emotional, natural reasons why!

You see in this "mind picturing game", one has to just have a little
imagination, or foresight, or experience, and if y2k, war, or any
other foreseen or unforeseens, don't interfere, it's a scenario that
stands a chance to play itself out. If not, at least the mind, and ones
imagination, is still functioning.

Don't fight the trend, flow with it, and use it to get out at higher
prices, and in at lower ones. BECOME A DIPSTER of PMs!!!!
working.

for Greenspan's visit to Beijing next week is the Chinese
want to "DONATE" some bus fare just in case WJC's
trial don't go so good.

Go Gold......................

One more thing. Given the apparent turning of the Korean economy, you might be interested in which stock on the NYSE has the highest short interest ratio.

http://www.bigcharts.com/reports/bigmarkets/short-interest.asp?exch=nyse?t=1

There could be some rather explosive potential here.

Firstly, that "Home" moniker for what is simply a house, annoys me.
Cant these marketing types leave the language alone?
Whatever.
I am in manufacturing, specifically, mold manufacturing for precision rubber parts. The business has dropped from an unsustainably high level ( I'll call it 118.00 on my subjective scale ) , to an "as needed" ( 55.00 ) level now. I don't see improvement, nor do the other tooling companies that I have contact with through trade associations.
This is a deeper drop than 1990, when that lyin' SOB, Georgie ( Mr ABX ) Bush raised taxes well into a recession. At that time I swore to my wife that it would be a billion buxaday deficit that his republicrat friends cobbled together in their secret session in the hangar.
It is here now. The waves are picking up with the Eastern Winds.
The Gomers that have taken on the massive debt of a new house have my sympathy. The gommint has lied continuously on the fundamentals of the economy. The dungball pollies as Clinton, with their mantra, "The best economy in thirty years,..", should have been countered by the college boy economists of the Fed.
But, no, the helmsmen of the economy will not clue in the hoi-polloi about the risks of speculation. Mr. Greenspan simply mutters something about "irrational exuberance", and he gets deniability for the deluge.
A week later, pundits sing hosannas to the Master of Money, Mr. Greenspan. He's as clueless as the rest of the bureaurocracy. He has never been at the bottom of the food chain of fiat, as the majority of the small business-manufacturers have.
I bought a load of the PM's this past year, and I will hold.
There is a world of pissed-off people out there that might put an end to the hegemony of the fed paper.
.
Mike Sheller did say that there is so much pessimism amongst the fin-chat guys, that the market will go the up way, to spite them.

National Guard exercises
unprecedented
since World War II set for May
Y2K test
By David M. Bresnahan
 1999 WorldNetDaily.com

The National Guard is planning its first
national mobilization of troops since 1940
in preparation for civil unrest resulting
from the Y2K millennium bug,
WorldNetDaily has learned.

The National Guard Bureau in Washington
is currently formulating plans for a
mobilization test, in conjunction with the
Federal Emergency Management Agency.
If Y2K causes a complete shutdown of all
communications, the National Guard will
need a way to mobilize troops, according
to several officers who believe their
careers would be at risk if their names
were made public.
( more... )
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990106_xex_the_plan_mas.shtml

Didn't he call a bottom in oil and commodities a few days ago? I also think he called for the next leg up in the DOW too. Go Astrology!

Gollum:

An interesting coincidence indeed, though the short interest figures are usually distorted by all sorts of arb games.

Select Gold & Precious Metals Chart
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.gif

Select Energy Service ( FSLEX ) UP 8.05% Today!
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/enens70.gif

D.A.: Nice post!

ALL: Are we due for a turning in overseas economies, or will it continue to spread across the world and affect more than the US commodities and manufacturing industries ? I don't see any reason to think that the deflationary trend has run itself out yet. These things don't just turn around on a dime, and Japan still has real problems. I agree completely that the increase in the amount of dollars out there is going to play hell on the system when we get to the end, but is the end in sight ? I'm not so sure. Btw, could Kitco BE any slower ? Away to watch television, will be back later when things speed up.

The XEU-Euro disparity is GONE
It never happened because the dB at Oanda NOW shows the XEU and the Euro have been identical since Euro entered the world.

One certainly understands why gold is an anathema to the modern banker.
It is THERE.
When it is not THERE, one is expected to account for its absence.

Try to prove that the disparity existed for a period of time in cyberspace
You can't
It was never there when it was there

I shall save the spreadsheet entries cataloging that specter
And wonder at unknown others

I'll echo the thanks for your insight.
I was a bit bored for the lack of posts during the New-Year holiday, so I went back a year to see what was going on back then. I ran across a post from you, accompanied by a few later posts, ( Channels ) .
The calls that you made a year ago aroused suspicion on my part. Is there any way that you were able to go back into the archives and edit new numbers for POG predictions, or, are you just that good?
Sometime, when Kitco speeds up, I'll go back to post your predictions that would get you a 900 number for the best seer around.

http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=55766

DA,
Don`t you undurstand it is RIGGED...Fucked...manipulated

What can you expect with your divination and your charts ?

It is a no honest man LAND...!

Get out !!!

Before you get get killed..................

the EURO gaining ( lets say 10% ) on the US$$ over the next year; while they attempt to maintain a 30% backing; at the same time the US trying to keep Gold under $300 as per their FRB plan.

Lets understand this. Europe buys gold to top up to the 30%, and US Sells gold to keep it under $300!! Either Greenspan is too smart, or he is under some influence.

I realize this is too simple, so what am I missing?

DA: DON'T LOSE YOUR FATE AND IF YOU HAVE ALREADY CONSIDER GOING TO CHURCH SOME GREAT IDEAS WILL RESULT FROM ONE HOUR OF CHURCH

D.A. I'll third the kudos for that post. For the last few minutes, I have been perusing Gollum's post on the CRB spot graph from 1947 to present -- something I have been looking for, for some time.

I also think the CRB is bottoming, but I wish to play the devil's advocate -- for the sake of my sanity. I fell like I need eyes in the back of my head.

For example, if you look at the trends of the available subindices that make up the CRB spot: Raw industrials, metals,textiles,foodstuffs,fat and oils,and livestock, you do see a strong deflationary downtrend with little evidence of a turnaround.

On the positive side, the CRB spot does have a 5-7 year cycle in it, and could very well bottom around this time -- like you I have bet on this. My sunspot work ( probably not really my own -- but I have convinced myself of the truth ) also indicates that US commodity prices tend to rise during rising sunspot periods such as now.

My question to you and gollum, and anyone else who thinks he/she can answer: How do we really know what we aren't at the edge of a deflationary cliff -- and we are just experiencing a bear market rally in commodities? My tentative answer to this -- and I am not completely sure -- is that the deflationary events of SEAsia have mostly played themsleves out, and as long as Europe and South America hold together, commodity prices ( for now ) are heading up. Also, historically the US Fed has stepped in and prevented 'wholesale' deflationary drops in commodity prices since we went off the gold standard.

If however, Brazil or Europe head south in a big way, worldwide commodity prices will continue their bearish slide. Or -- if AG etal become too fixated on preventing the next inflationary period -- they might not inflate the US dollar quickly enough to prevent a liquidity collapse, with similar catastrophic consequences.

Comments from those who are undoubtedly more knowledgable about such matters than I?

GA,
Please call Bart and buy Mounties if there is some more for sale........

Stop trying gold charts !
The market is CRAZY...and MANIPULATED...is it CLEAR ?

BUT....Mounties...MEANS...BART..!!!!