Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Kitco Inc. does not exercise any editorial control over the content of this discussion group and therefore does not necessarily endorse any statements that are made or assert the truthfulness or reliability of the information provided.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:26 - ID#20359)
Steve in TO, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Chaa-phe nang...most certainly...
(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:27 - ID#284255)
Fair enough.
But do Naval officers normally train for Civil emergencies etc?

Being an ex boatie I never saw many civilians at sea.
Let alone at an emergency.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:30 - ID#20359)
Steve in TO, Namaste', gulp and a puff to ya...
All U Wanna Know About ' Java Script ' and then some...

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:31 - ID#219363)
I don't know why Java would mess up the gray push buttons, that's weird. What Java is: In the old days of HTML, or the web, your browser could be pointed at a site and it would download content, web pages, with pretty graphics and sounds and text and all that kind of jazz. Java essentially allows your browser to download executable code that runs within your browser and does stuff. Java is good for things that need to be interactive, process user input on the local system, things like that.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:32 - ID#394240)
FRAU lady__bug--
BGEIX=American Century Global Gold Fund ( formerly Benham gold equity index fund ) , a good proxy for the xau, my #1 choice because it's at 6 bucks down from 16 and up from 4.

FSAGX=Fidelity Select American Gold, another good proxy for the xau but contains a more speculative portfoliio than BGEIX.

The BIG BOYS were buyin' back at 48-55 because of huge volume reversal patterns in all the BIG XAU stocks at that time. I'll get the exact figures for you later on today! Go to Brian Auger's XAU site and see what he's got on his radar screen--but hurry!--leg one will be over by Feb. 10!!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:34 - ID#320202)
got all my gold and silver equities in place, most of it way too long ago now hoping to get even and than some


(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:47 - ID#153110)
@Normal Markets @Alberich
If you have not studied the CAFR information I have posted, you are missing the big picture on stock, bond, and gold markets.

"Suppression finds always it's legal justification. Doesn't the aspiration to "understand" these legal hair splitting tricks at the end bless the existing suppression with the cover of "legality"? "

No. The existing suppression already has the cover of "legality". The objective is to understand the cover so you grab it in a place that will with a gentle tug neatly strip it off and leave them naked to the law and public scorn. The law here being the commanded law which includes, but is not limited to, Thou shalt not bear false witness, nor steal, nor trespass.

My remark to Eldo was to indicate learning how to strip away the cover takes study.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:52 - ID#320202)
thanks to CHEESE.....
we got reminded
look at the trend line, what a joy

(Sat Jan 09 1999 14:57 - ID#254130)
declines lead advances,1429:945-NYSE

Wall St breaks New Year's resolution;
devours stocks

By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Just one week into 1999 and Wall Streeters
are already breaking their New Year's resolutions -- which were to
control their appetites for stocks.

Investors were back to their old tricks this week, behaving as if the market was an
overflowing investment salad bar.
New Eras are rarely golden all of the time, and Goodman said that between now and the
end of the year, investors should brace for corrections after the market's moonshot
Don Hays, chief investment strategist for Wheat First Union in Richmond, Va., said a
study of the year-on-year performance of common stocks traded on the New York Stock
Exchange showed that 945 stocks rose in 1998, while 1,429 stocks fell.

On the Nasdaq, there were 1,261 stocks that gained over the 12-month period and 2,360
were losers.

``In other words, the odds for a typical investor buying stocks on the NYSE were that you
had three stocks that lost money last year for every two stocks that moved up,'' Hays

``That means that your chances of picking a loser on January 1, 1997 were 2-to-1.''

Indeed, this could be a bull chasing its tail.


(Sat Jan 09 1999 15:21 - ID#43460)
Sharefin, thanks for the congressional query URL
I think though that we are not likely to have to worry very much about massive user fees for the internet. If they ever come about I think that would be wonderful. I can think of nothing this fat overbloated government could do to shoot itself in the foot faster.

Can you imagine the political impact of 20 million liberal yuppies 20 million conservative retirees and a sprinkling of working class guys upon arrival of their next phone bill? Waco and Ruby Ridge only stirred up the Right. The CDA only inflamed the Left. This would have the potential of ticking off all the taxpayers.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 15:27 - ID#26793)
Goldholder statistics by country

(Sat Jan 09 1999 15:35 - ID#218390)
Short S&P / Long Silver
Intend to enter short S&P futures at opening Monday provided opening lower than yesterday's close, as a long term short position, with a protective stop buy order at yesterday's high.
Intend also to buy silver futures on a higher opening on Monday with a mental stop loss order at the $4.90 level. This position intended to be held for 3-9 months at least. Looking for $8.00 plus.
These orders in the market so plan set.
Still, would appreciate your feedback. Many thanks.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 15:37 - ID#394240)
that the Euro will ultimately fail as a world reserve currency because there can be no economic union without concomitant political union, the EU will have to allow the price of gold to spike upward to keep the EURO from a devastating collapse! The lesson is clear. Whatever the currency, without gold reserves, the currency is doomed!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 15:56 - ID#252391)
Kio's long term short S%P
Your long term short on the S%P initiated on a lower opening with a stop at the previous days high will most likely be a very short term trade. Typical of a bull market in the march higher are lower openings followed by rallies. It is indeed the hall mark of a good move. Look back for four years - why will yesterday's close be the top? Good luck in silver - i'm with you. I have more confidence that 5.19 may be sustained as a long term pivot point.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:00 - ID#29036)
radio internet access
check out waverider communications ( symbol wavc ) . they use radio
modems for high speed internet connections, but may still require
dial tone, but not phone equipment.
also, keep in mind that if cable tv works, access can be
had via cable modems.

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:04 - ID#294232)
VSE ends its bear market with a triple bottom breakout!
The VSE finished up 5% this week off a triple bottom breakout. The Junior golds will begin to recover from this point forward and will work themselves into a frenzy. Volume incresed all week starting at 14,500,000 and finishing on 29,000,000 which is a respectable increase. Advancers lead decliners three to one as we move into a new week. The chart indicates that we could see clear sailing to the 520 mark which is the first point of strong resistance. The VSE looked very much like Korea and I fully expect the same type of recovery.
In playing the Juniors my suggestion is to do your due dilligence and be careful with stocks trading below $.15 as their chances for raising money without heavy dilution is next to impossible. Look for production and treasuries loaded with cash! These will be the first to move. As stocks move up expect calls from your broker about selling some of your losers that are suddenly winners. Donot sell until you know why the stock is moving. This could get very exciting in the next couple of months so keep your thinking clear and donot make hasty decisions. Should gold breakout over three hundred in the next couple of months this market will come apart at the seams. just one mans opinion.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:43 - ID#231337)
The Hatt .... VSE
Agree. This exchange has been devestated.. not all of it because of its own faults. There are some interesting Jr's out there... much more interesting than Argentena. They happen to be the first out of the chute.. and are somewhat being mishandled by Barrick. But the next and the next will returen some real good returns. A close one to watchh is Madison. They have aproven reserve of over 4 Mill Oz and the next round, filling in on expansion drilling could add a huge if not double to that amount. Its in a resource 8 - 10 kilo's from the very successful mine ( 25+m Oz ) Porgera mined by Placer Dome in Papua New Guini. They are getting 1 Mill Oz per year from that deposit. This Madison deposit has all the same characteristics, in what is probably a larger zone. Madison is the major holder, CPC from Australia is a minor holder. Some good reviews on this in Hot Copper.

Check it out! Your on your own, but like Gold, the VSE has bottomed.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:43 - ID#218390)
Thanks for your comments. I suffer from "top pickins" disease!
If filled on short S&P order on Monday's open think will move
exit buy stop down to just above 1288, yesterday's high just
prior to the close, for the March contract. Interesting hearing
your view of the significance of $5.19 re silver. If proven
correct surely makes for attractive risk/reward ratio for silver
purchased at current prices. Am considering increasing my intended
position on Monday, if a strong opening. Wish you well with your trades.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:46 - ID#386316)
D.A. Good to see you again!!
Have just been catching up on my kitco reading and enjoyed your posts on the economy and WJC both of which I agree with completely.

One of the most facinating things I have been watching of late is the price of oil. Here is a commodity that demonstrably ( based on "published" fundamentals ) has absolutely no hope short of Saudi sinking beneath the waves and yet it is turning around. This could be simply a technical correction or hedge funds closing out positions to enter new plays elsewhere. However, this does not have that "feeling".

One possibility that occurred to me is that we are watching a revaluation of oil against the US$ vs the euro - which is a dynamic that you did not mention in your Wednesday post.

In the past, as you mentioned in your post, the major constraint against the type of liquidity flooding the US markets is higher interest rates. This is because the US$ was the worlds reserve currency. If this occured with another currency you would also have a currency devaluation dynamic kicking in to regulate things. This has not been the case with the US$ since the gold window was closed by Nixon.

It seems unlikely to me that this _potential_ dynamic would kick in so soon but still I find myself wondering... Be interested in your comments.

BTW, what are your thoughts on physical silver these days?? I have been watching comex warehouse numbers with interest, particularly the decline of registered stocks... not that I know what that would mean other than physical holders are selling out or transfering their holdings to London...

(Sat Jan 09 1999 16:47 - ID#254288)
Why I stopped reading Barron's and hardly ever watch financial TV

What Cheryl Strauss Einhorn fails to point out in the her Barron's piece is that many gold miners owe their soul's to the bankster.
This resulted in the cost cutting or "cost cutting combined with highgrading" to avoid reorganization with the banker in control.
This highly indebted group of gold miners planned for profitable operations at sustained $400 plus prices.
If Au price doesn't react quickly, be prepared for gold production to sink drastically.
Also remember, that if a mine closes down, chance that it will re-open is not a certainty for a number of reasons which I'm sure you'll know.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:03 - ID#386316)
D.A. Consider Al Capone
While I agree completely with your position of what has been happening to WJC with respect to the trial in the senate and Ken Starr I have been wondering if this is a scenario that is similar to that of Al Capone who was nailed ( finally ) on income tax charges - essentially getting nailed on a technicality.

On the other side of the coin, there could be a deeper theme here. It seems to me like Clinton has been taking every opportuning to avoid conciliation and to goad the republicans into doing this. This has been something that has been virtually ignored by the kitcoites other than Oleman. I tend to agree with him that this ( somehow ) could be setting the stage for Hilary's run at the presidency. Bill is just too savy a politician to get himself into this position as he is now unless he has another agenda.

So here is another scenario ( up there with some of Another's stuff ; ) ) .

Suppose WJC, Rubin and Greenspan realize that a financial frankenstein is on the loose. They know what would happen if they pop the bubble and do NOT want to take the heat for the consequences. At the same time they realise that something has to be done. They need a patsy. Who else but the republicans?? Clinton does everything possible to get himself impeached ( the real clue here may be his response to the 88 questions ) . The trial gets acrimonious, Clinton pronounces a constitional crises and "suddenly" the markets get spooked and ..POP!.. And the rest is history as they say...

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:23 - ID#252391)
Wish you well too, KIP
Starting to think precios metals could be the big surprise here. Bonds start falling while employment is high there will be concerns about inflation. Given the sold out nature of the CRB where would it go if money starts flowing out of paper into the tangible. I think the bell rang on this Friday.

However, speculated this way before just to see the metals fade back and equities surge on. Have to believe that the internet day traders and early buyers have to be very nervous.

Have to be prepared for surprises. Every year that dawns expectations are formed on the previous year's moves. In the last few years there have been very few that have got the big surprises - from the Asian crash to the internet to the come back in equities from October. I wouldn't be surprised to see silver go quickly to $8, pause a month and then blow up to $10. Too many of us are oonditioned by the bear in metals - that is just what would make for the surprise.

Hope your trades work out, but I still ask:

Dow 10,000 before gold $315??? May just be a horse race in the end. 9stsreus re

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:42 - ID#290271)
sharefin and the Navy
Sharefin: More on your post of the Navy Emergency officer billet advertisement you posted. You asked why the military would have something to do with civil emergencies. Thats an easy one! Each branch has as part of their Reserve Forces function a job for those that can react to a big-time emergency. The Navy calls them a Navy Emergency Preparedness Liaison Officer. The Air Force is called a Disaster Preparedness officer. Their primary job is to react to a big military related emergency like when Khobar Towers was blown up in Saudi. If our troops were bombed and/or gassed by Saddam, these folks would react.

On the home front, these are the military liaison officers you saw when the Federal Building got blown up in Oklahoma City, and during the Northridge earthquake in LA. Their PRIMARY job is to ASSIST civil authorities with military assets. At Ok City, they brought in bomb sniffing dogs and an anti-terrorist team. In LA it was more of a relief effort ( remember the big tent city that was erected in one of the public parks? ) . It's these officers that serve as the "go between" with civil and military authorities.

If there was an economic emergency, you would not see these folks called. However, if the economic emergency got ugly, then the National Guard would be called out just like past riots and other emergencies. Keep in mind that the National Guard is owned by each state and its respective governor. The Reserves command and control comes out of the Pentagon and flows down from there. Big big difference.

As the services get more into the info highway, many of their internal routine stuff is distributed via e-mail and webpages. Its very easy for someone to grab ahold of this stuff and send it around the world in minutes via the internet. If you see something with Top Secret on the message, then you know were all in big trouble!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:45 - ID#20359)
Hillary Clinton will not run for the NY Senate nor will she run for the White House, in
addition WJC is meaningless to the markets...and I believe that all of the Democrats that have serious problems with him personally as well as politically will vote with the Republicans to remove him from office.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:45 - ID#220325)
Y2K food storage and products

(Sat Jan 09 1999 17:52 - ID#254112)
@mozel: I enjoyed the wording of your answer so much that
I cannot help but accepting it's content. YES, in that sense YOU are providing an incredibly important weapon.
But the weapon's purpose is to help the power struggle. There are only good laws in a society where good people dominate, have the power to ensure the wellfare of the community. Of course, as a European, I believe it wouldn't matter if these good people would rule through an authoritarian regime or through a socalled "democracy". I would prefer the grassroot movement. But I don't yet see it growing.

@GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: Endlich mal wieder ein Lebenszeichen von Ihnen!
Ein herzliches Willkommen dem lange Vermissten!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 18:03 - ID#343449)


ANOTHER perspective on why crude is
going up when it should go down.......

time for some more dec '99 calls.....

(Sat Jan 09 1999 18:14 - ID#225127)
FYI PE expanding faster than S&P increase
The S&P increased by 32.5% last year
The S&P PE increased by 41.3% last year

as of Friday 8 Jan. year over year S&P inc by 37.7%
S&P PE inc by 46.6%

(Sat Jan 09 1999 18:22 - ID#258273)
bubble will continue
DNA test negative. Clinton will survive. Market forces ( whatever they are ) will continue ASB.

Since triple bottoms and tops seem to be the rule these days, wouldn't it be most likely to see a triple top in stocks?? This would mean that the next plunge would be followed by yet another recovery while the fundamentals continue to deteriorate.

The next plunge might coincide with the Japanes bond market collapse, and Brazil going down on several fronts. A recovery would coincide with more interest rate cuts, market intervention ( social security "funds" ) and yet another surge in liquidity for a temporary surge back up here in the good ol' USA.

The final plunge would coincide with a global debt and fiat currency collapse.

This seems to me to be the logical extension of the current dynamic and is consistent with the thinking of both bulls ( short term ) and bears ( long term ) alike.

Gotta go for a while. Would love to hear some thoughts.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 18:24 - ID#257351)
Alberich and all
Thanks you for your kind indulgences. I get on a tear every now and then.

One thing I do have a concern about here is the tendency to be anti-government. That is to say it would be better to have no government and chaos than to have something like martial law or a declared state of emergency where people's activities are limited.

I have said here once and will say it again, IMHO it is better to have bad government than to have anarchy. When Y2K hits I look forward to whatever efforts the MANY government agencies can do to shepherd our communities though this hard time.

I do not think it will work very well, though. In fact I believe that governments will become weak and ineffectual as their economic power base is eroded. Modern centeralized governments depend upon the economic flow and prosperity of it respective society to retain its place in the society.

I think it can be said that modern governments are very much 'hand in glove' with economies which make huge cities the economic centers of our time. Without these cities as power centers ( economic and political, etc ) then centeralized, huge governments do not make sense and will not continue.

That said, I do not look forward to the transition from the present way to the way of the past. The monster will flail horribly in its death throes.

Best to be out of harms way, I suspect. Keep a low profile. Etcetera.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 18:29 - ID#254112)
Euro and the Price of Gold
The total reserves of the 11 Euroland countries are 327 billion Euros, of which 30.4% is in gold, dollarized at the current market value.
This high dependency on gold as a reserve currency should be reson enough for the Eurolanders to keep the price of gold high relative to non-Euro currencies. If they would depress the gold price on the international markets they would shoot themselves into their own knee. That's one of the major reasons why I think, the European CBs, coordinated by the central ECB, will not sell anymore any gold to the external markets.

The second reason for my Euro-Gold optimism is the exact opposite of what Kaplan is expecting. I think it will strengthen the small and the big economies. Look at Finnland, Austria, Ireland, Netherland, Belgium, Luxembourg: they will have much more protection by acting in the context of a unified Europe. All these coutries are much smaller in their population than California and a lot of other states in the US. They completely depend on the common market. Does anybody believe, does this brilliant analyst, Mr. Kaplan believe, that any of these coutries could afford an internal financial and monetary policy "against" the rest of Europe? They have to coordinate their monetary policies and do so since a long time. France and Germany coordinate since many years. Only Italy had always the tendency to a kind of a bolder money supply policy, to say it gently. And they will be very happy to enjoy from now on a stonger currency. That's not agaist their national interest. The Italian already are crazy for it. It's in the best interest of the people.

Nobody, also Mr. Kaplan, cannot possibly argue that it would hurt any of the coutries that they have frozen their exchange rates among each other.
This provides more stability for all the members of Euroland and protects them against the Soros of the world. In addition, they will have now a central monetary policy. Where is the danger for the national interst?
Sorry, I don't see it.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 19:20 - ID#350195)
Equus 38-3
Dauphin demise

(Sat Jan 09 1999 19:24 - ID#411440)
@ John Disney: re: "There is no 20 000 ton gold short
position, just a collection of so-called "gold loans" which are
not gold loans at all.... just money loans constructed around the
gold contango."

This does sound like a viable way to eat ones cake and have it
too. But the CB is getting less than 1%, and is constantly
depressing the value of a major reserve asset, just to generate
a less than 1% income. That sounds pretty stupid to me, even
for a CB.

The bullion bank that arranges the loan, would certainly prosper.
The speculator/hedge fund obtains money at less than prime,
but there is evidence of the short overhang. When LTCM was
in difficulty, and had to be bailed out by the Fed et al, it
was discovered that they were exposed to a 300 ton short in
gold. Other hedge funds certainly have short exposures. I
have no idea if it totals 20 000 tons but I think it is

I know the gold carry goes on, I can see it in the pattern of
spot POG and one month lease rates. AG has said that control
of the price of gold is important and is accomplished by leasing.
There must be a net outflow of gold from CBs in order to depress
spot POG. Why is it important to control a mere commodity?
It's because gold is real and flat is not. Flat is currency,
a medium of exchange, not money, a storehouse of value.

I don't think anyone on Kitco is going to prove or disprove the
gold carry theory, until the mechanism runs it course, as lease
rates and inflation rates converge on one month treasury rates.
If the convergence drops below 1% and POG explodes, then we will
know. In a sense, I hope you are right, because your scenario
means a rise in POG won't pop the hedge fund/derivative bubble.
Its AG who supplies the best evidence of the short overhang.
He has said the world financial system cannot be fixed.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 19:25 - ID#43349)
State of the bullion report
onds are falling, gold is looking like it will move, and silver is getting to be a bit overbought.

Leasing rates are low, but no one wants to jump into the carry trade while bonds are still falling. Once they do stop, however, the differential between bond interest rates and leasing rates is going to bring the skot sales back in. So enjoy the rally but keep a wary eye on bonds.

Silver needs to flatten out it's rise and build a base for a week or two so as to allow the stochastic to fall. Otherwise it will stall out and plunge just as fast as the little pop up it gave us during the week.

On a more positve note, even as the shorts are biding their time and waiting for bonds to stabilize, the gold stocks are starting to attract fund interest. Even though gold traded in a fairly flat range, the stocks began to move up.

The funds tend to ignore fundamentals nowadays and buy into concepts ( witness the internet stocks and their p/e ratios ) . Some pretty good moves can occur despite what the physical is doing if the funds buy into the idea of putting some of that pension fund end-of-the-year money into something with lower p/e's than the "bubble darlings".

Greenstone Gold
(Sat Jan 09 1999 19:35 - ID#428218)
Why does this come as a surprise............

Now, once upon a time.......there was the US$......


Greenstone Gold
(Sat Jan 09 1999 19:39 - ID#428218)
Rhody....... Why is it important to control a mere commodity?

Possibly to establish the EURO..............

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:00 - ID#210114)
Another apology... This time to Mooney
Sorry Mooney. You are totally right. My cut and past was from gogold, not from you.

My apologies for any stress I have caused you, your friends, and any members of your family.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:08 - ID#411440)
@ Greenstone Gold: Gold is a mere commodity is a Wall
St. line. Along with the Fed. Americans conspire to maintain
the artificial value and status of the U.S. dollar as the world
reserve currency. This allows the United States to live beyond
its means. Notice there is no mention of the Euro is all this.

I think the ECB was concerned with maintaining a low price of
gold only until Dec 31 1998, when they used the last London
fix to set the value of their gold reserves. They should allow
the price to rise from here, and therefore show a positive on
their books re the gold portion of their reserves.

It is the Fed and Wall street that hates gold. The ECB can use
a rise in the price of gold as a means of enhancing the
value of the EURO. All of this is old hat here on Kitco.
Wall st hates gold as a rival for investment dollars that they
want directed into bonds or equities. Wall st earns no commission
selling gold.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:10 - ID#218422)
jims (Silver)
Was nearly 10 years ago when silver fell below $5.00 Had accumulated
a large leveraged position between $5.00 and $6.00 Was living in Barbados at the time. That soon changed! My account went deficit.
Had to liquidate ALL liquid personal assets to meet the call.
Not fun, but that's the game. So 10 years later, is it now time to load up? Maybe, but have thot that many times this past decade. I
sure liked silver's snap back price action on 1/5/99 after it's sharp
move down on 1/4. Anyway, am committed to silver once again on Monday
if opening strong.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:22 - ID#252391)
A good read & to KIP

KIP, been surfing around the metal sites and commentaries today. Come away with the read that activity in the metals was fairly light last week. This gives me the sense that should any buying hit the markets they will advance smartly.

Will any buying emerge?? I suspicion it will and it will come from a fear of inflation of all things. Bonds are saying something are they not.??

As said earlier I look for the CRB to jump up to about 203 where there is much resistance - from there we should get the leveling off Gollum talks about.

See my next post for a great page and overview of the CRB, and bonds. whii

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:30 - ID#252391)
CRB and Market overview

Seems to me the overhead at 202 to 205 on the CRB is significant. How fast it gets up into it, how high it gets up into it before putting in one of those higher openings fall apart closes will be a good key to how much strength there is in the recovery of silver, oil and the CRB in general.

This guy was early in calling this turn - bears bookmarking.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:31 - ID#218422)
jims (Silver/S&P)
Recall in 1979 silver moving up --- finally and quickly to $10.00
Most short-termers sold, taking gigantic profits. A few months later silver was at $50.00 +. Anything possible! Expect the unexpected. But limit possible losses. See the S&P now in the reverse. Now at multi-year hi's. Down side, huge.
See silver at $70.00 plus, soon.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:35 - ID#210114)
To All: Sent this email to the ECB. Will let you know if I get a reply.
Greetings to the ECB!!

My best wishes for the future of the Euro.

I would like to ask what the ECB's gold policy is. As I understand it, the ECB is holding some 15% of its foreign reserves in gold.

It has been suggested by the mainstream media that this leaves some 10,000 tonnes of 'excess' gold in the national central banks.

What is the ECB policy towards this 'surplus' gold? Will control be exerted over this stockpile by the ECB or will the national central banks be free to sell this gold as they choose?

Thank you for your time and I look forward to your reply.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:44 - ID#35757)
The mood at Kitco sure is volatile. Dejection to euphoria ( hopefully not back again ) . But even if it does, what the heck, another opportunity to load up. We all know how this game is going to end, n'est-ce pas?

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:57 - ID#252391)
Kip's $70 silver, SOON!!!!
Hope you really know something, KIP. I remember the '70's silver market. wouldn't take much to control it know financially speaking in total dollar terms. I'll limit my expectations to $10 this year as my "wild thing" expectation.

Franklly, I enjoy my life too much now to think what a mess the world would have to be in to support $70 and $1000 gold. I think we are all better off with an industrial use lead recovery in silver rather than some cataglismic event propelling the price to those levelss. However, if I were to pick a surprise for '99 it would be a silver rally to and or above $10. In 2000- a corrction as the Y2K thing doesn't lead to the end, THE END, then a resumption of the upside as the democrats win the election of 2000.

Don't forget you heard it here, way back when......

Right, probably see silver stay range bound between $5.50 and $4.75 for 18 months.

How's that for conviction.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 20:58 - ID#252150)
Irrational comlacency@One of the biggest tipoffs that the stock mkt bubble
is close to bursting was the latest mkt update from Abby "Polyanna"
Cohen. The Dow is only 4% from 10,000, only 2% from her year end target & she is so complacent that she is only calling for a reduction in equities from 72 to 70%. A reduction of only 5% would have left her as a raving,
rabid, bull. Her 2% reduction is so ridiculous as to be laughable.

She keeps pushing the envelope and is destined to end up like Granville & Garbagerelli.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:03 - ID#432395)
Can somebody please tell me what Rhodium is used for? TIA.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:06 - ID#35757)
I had similar thoughts about $70 silver, but in light of all the dollar inflation I don't think it would be such a cataclysm. What we used to measure in billions we now measure in trillions. Just a few months ago I bought 'junk' silver for $4 for $1. I think there is a whole lot of room on the upside for a 'correction'.

The Hatt
(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:07 - ID#294232)
The VSE and Juniors are about to breakout!
The VSE put in a triple bottom and has broke out which spells the end to a horific bear market! Take a look at the chart and draw your own conclusions. This could be the start of the mother of all bulls for gold and junior gold stocks. Watch it closely as the gold train loves to leave the station with few passengers!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:08 - ID#252391)
Mr. Hatt
Where is this chart of the VSE - had it bookmarked once but have lost it.

Want to see the birth of the bull or all bulls - no bull.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:12 - ID#218390)
jims (enjoying life)
Don't think life is for enjoyment. It's for living, now.
And I know nothing you don't know. I'm sure you know. Tomoorrow lives in our imagination. Kinda unreal. Still, kinda fun to speculate! Can be profitable, sometimes.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:13 - ID#348129)
@Veeeerrry Innnnterestink
Saturday January 9, 3:26 pm Eastern Time

Real-life X-File? Computer pioneer quits to chase UFOs

By Andrew Quinn

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - In the X-Files it would be called the case of the CEO and the UFO.

Joe Firmage, who at the age of 28 has made not one but two mega-fortunes as a computer pioneer in California's Silicon Valley, has quit the $2 billion company he helped found to promote what he calls ``the most important news event in 2000 years'' -- his belief that many of today's scientific advances came from space aliens.

``Why would a young, successful CEO risk his reputation on something this fantastic?'' Firmage told Saturday's San Francisco Chronicle in announcing his departure from USWeb/CKS ( Nasdaq:USWB - news ) , an Internet marketing and consulting company based in Santa Clara, California.

``Because I believe so much in this theory. And I am in a unique position to communicate an extremely important message. I have the money, credibility, scientific grounding, and faith.''

Firmage has been dubbed the ``Fox Mulder of Silicon Valley'' after the hero of the ``X-Files'' television series, and his own beliefs seem strangely parallel to the dark mix of UFO contact and government conspiracy that lie at the show's core.

Backed by his immense resources, Firmage has sought to prove a variety of theories regarding UFOs, including one which holds that many recent scientific advances including semiconductors, fiber optics and lasers can be traced to a purported alien spaceship crash in Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947 that was covered up by the government.

``Outright rejection of the evidence without comprehensive review of the research in print across hundreds of books is close-minded, unscientific and indeed irresponsible in the extreme,'' Firmage wrote in one recent essay.

``It is also quite understandable given decades of government disinformation which, right or wrong in its genesis and continuation, was specifically designed to create a 'giggle factor' surrounding the subject.''

Firmage's credentials as a UFO buff are matched by his track record as a computer industry entrepreneur.

A physics major at the University of Utah, Firmage was 18 when he formed his first company, Serius, which specialized in writing computer operating system codes. That was sold to Novell in 1993 for $24 million, and Firmage served as Novell's vice president of networking strategy until 1995 when he left to form USWeb.

That company, which helped companies to develop Internet strategies, completed a merger with CKS Group Inc. last month to form a $2.1 billion powerhouse that employs 1,950 people.

During the merger, however, Firmage was edged out as CEO by a board of directors who did not see eye to eye with him on the UFO issue. Now, Firmage says, he is leaving the company for good to pursue his beliefs.

``I want to ensure that the company is not impacted in any negative way,'' Firmage told the Chronicle, adding that he was not pressured to give up his job as chief strategist.

Robert Shaw, who took over as CEO of USWeb/CKS, said Firmage himself had suggested the move ``given the market exposure associated with his outside interests.''

``Joe is a visionary and he should be quite proud of what he accomplished. This move should demonstrate to the public and the employees that he's always put the interests of the company first,'' Shaw told the newspaper.

Firmage has already laid the groundwork for a campaign to publicize his UFO beliefs. He has set up the International Space Science Organization to promote his views, sunk $3 million into an endeavor dubbed ``Project Kairos'' aimed at preparing humanity for alien contact, and posted a 600-page manifesto, entitled ``The Truth'', on his website ( ) .

Included in ``The Truth'' are new documents from a source Firmage calls the ``Deep Throat of Cyberspace'' which he claims back up his space alien theories.

One of the documents is a purported 1947 memo from President Harry Truman to Secretary of Defense James Forrestal that sets up a secret U.S. government operation dubbed ``Majestic Twelve'' to investigate extraterrestrials.

Another is an alleged June 1947 letter from Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer to scientist Vannevar Bush giving advice on how to deal with alien visitors.

Firmage's departure from USWeb/CKS was greeted with a shrug by many of his Silicon Valley contemporaries, who have long scoffed at his otherworldly beliefs.

``I've met a bunch of the valley's pioneers, and none of them I know are aliens,'' said John McLaughlin, a Silicon Valley historian. ``The valley was built on ingenuity and hard work.''

Even Silicon Valley's ``official'' UFO organization, the SETI ( Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence ) Institute which is partly financed by high-tech heavyweights from Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard and Intel, is not lining up behind Firmage.

``Roswell has repeatedly been discounted as nothing more than a military experiment,'' SETI Institute President Frank Drake told the Chronicle. ``It is constantly exploited by obsessive types who want to believe. If it's not Santa Claus, then it's aliens.''

Firmage, however, was unperturbed by the lack of support from the high-tech world.

``It's the Flat-Earth society mentality all over again, and I'm here to prove my theory is real,'' he told the newspaper.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:20 - ID#210114)
MoReGoLd: (Verrryy Intereesting)
What's this got to do with gold??

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:23 - ID#210114)
Beaming Up Now.....
Live Long and Prosper.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:29 - ID#336238)
Brother Oris...time..
to get long this week. Gold should dip a bit and then bolt. Gold on the Euro books at market..revalue every quarter. Wonder it can go down...NOT.

Take care, my friend.


(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:35 - ID#43460)
jims re $70 silver
Notice that Ford and GM have both anounced plans for zero emmision vehicles? How about superconduction using silver based wires? New silver halide battery technology? IMHO silver usage will go up in the next 5 years. Whether it will go up 14x remains to be seen.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:36 - ID#348129)
It's a slow Saturday night, markets around the world are closed. What's
your problem? Are you aware of the world around you or do you live in a bubble?

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:39 - ID#257304)
Verry interesting, indeedy
Rich men and their ufo toys, eh? Anyone versed in the Scientific Method care to look at this:
``It's the Flat-Earth society mentality all over again, and I'm here to prove my theory is real,'' he told the newspaper.

Got yer ya yas out?

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:41 - ID#348129)
@New Estimate 125 BILLION Galaxies in our universe.
Astronomers expand estimate of galaxies in the universe

Hubble Deep Field South 

New Hubble image finds more 'there' there

January 7, 1999
Web posted at: 11:13 p.m. EST ( 0413 GMT )

AUSTIN, Texas ( Reuters ) -- Looking back in time at a tiny section of sky, the Hubble Space Telescope found there may be 125 billion galaxies in the universe, about 45 billion more than the last best estimate, astronomers reported on Thursday.

The new number was based on observations by the orbiting telescope's Deep Field camera last October, when it looked at a speck-sized area of the southern sky, taking what amounts to a visual core sample of the heavens.

The Hubble telescope took a similar view of the northern sky in 1995, and then estimated that there might be 80 billion galaxies in existence.

Harry Ferguson of the Space Telescope Science Institute, which studies Hubble findings, said the southern observations looked a bit further into the past than the northern ones, and managed to detect dimmer objects in space, which accounts for the higher galactic count.

The Deep Field-South project looked 12 billion light years away in distance, back in time to a period perhaps one billion years after the theoretical big bang that astronomers believe created the universe.

Hubble's glimpse of the southern sky took in an area that would appear to be "about the size of a grain of sand held at arm's length," Ferguson told reporters at the American Astronomical Society meeting in Austin.

But in that small segment of the sky, the telescope spied 620 galaxies. Scientists extrapolated from that sample to theorize that there might be 125 billion galaxies over the whole sky.

"Anybody could have predicted it," Ferguson said, stressing that by looking further back in time, it was expected that more galaxies would turn up.

Ferguson and other astronomers at a news conference acknowledged that some of the newly detected galaxies were oddly shaped, unlike the symmetrical Milky Way that contains Earth and other more familiar galaxies that are shaped like spirals and ellipses.

These newly-spied galaxies appeared to be a disorganized collection of loosely-bound lumps. One astronomer likened their shape to a Danish pastry with raisins and another called one group of these galaxies "a pastry shop."

The notion that there might be more galaxies than originally thought is grist for astronomers trying to figure out how the universe developed, especially in its earliest stages, Ferguson said.

Because these observations by Hubble could see very faint objects whose light made its journey toward Earth billions of years ago, it probably counted so-called ghost galaxies in its estimate.

Ghost galaxies are tiny, and consist of large amounts of mysterious dark matter. Since astronomers believe that 90 percent of the universe may be made up of dark matter, that makes the ghosts worth studying and new astronomical instruments make this possible.

A light year is the distance light travels in a year, about 6 trillion miles ( 10 trillion km ) .

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:46 - ID#210114)
Bored eh??

I've got no problem. There just seems to be a lot of unnecessary flotsam and jetsam on this syte.

But if it keeps you off the street on a Saturday night, go for it.

Live Long and Prosper.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 21:49 - ID#348129)
This guy is a genius in his own right, and he sure sounds like he believes in his convictions. Certainly makes me wonder much more.
With 125 Billion galaxies out there, with lets say 1 Billion planetary systems in each one, going back some 15 Billion years in time, I would think that some beings would have evolved past our appollo/space shuttle programs, and perhaps made a bold excursion out our way.
Trouble is its hard to catch these buggers on a Sony......

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:03 - ID#320202)
yes, indeedy very interesting. Who was it who said about a week ago, that in about a week he will come out with news which will send folks to the hills??? ( Drudge? ) dododododo,dodododooooo........Twilight Zone...

The Hatt: yes, things look definitely better on the VSE,

good night

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:11 - ID#257304)
When you look at the Maths, extra-terestrial life is a certainty. However, contact is another matter entirely.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:22 - ID#257282)

Rhodium, symbol Rh, brilliant, silvery-white
metallic element. The atomic number is 45, and
the atomic weight is 102.906. Rhodium is one of
the transition elements of the periodic table
( see Periodic Law ) . It occurs in ores with
platinum, osmium and iridium, and gold.
Rhodium is very durable. It is used mostly asan
alloy with platinum. Rhodium-platinum alloys
are used in thermocouples, which measure high
temperatures. Pure rhodium is used as a mirror
surface in searchlights and as a plating finish for
jewelry and silverware.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:29 - ID#348129)
Personally I think its a question of technology. If other life forms out there have lets say a million year lead on our technological evolution ( and a million years is no big deal ) , then its almost certain they have surpassed travel at the speed of light ( worm holes etc. ) .
If they then have a fraction of our human curiousity, they would want a visit or two to good old earth.
NaNu NaNu, look, but just leave our Gold alone........

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:33 - ID#348129)
@One Majestic Planet

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:40 - ID#20359)
Or it could be as simple matter the technology...getting there from here and
vice versa just ain't possible...concurrently if a species could get here while we have not developed to the point of getting there...what would be the point of their stopping by for an interstellar brunch?

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:45 - ID#284255)
Nat ID cards

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:48 - ID#35757)
Or it could be that our level of existence is a transition zone. Philosopher-Predator, Angel-maggot. We either move to a higher level of existance or we eat each other. Space-faring cannibals cannot be ruled out of course, but are probably not that prevalent, having eaten each other eons ago.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:52 - ID#343449)


why? why even go there?

'if it keeps you off the streets...'

quite un-necessary and are
still in the corner with the hat begging for forgiveness...
remember? or have you decided to try you hand again?
please consider public pain..and refrain from self-aggrandizement...


(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:52 - ID#35757)
sharefin (Nat ID cards)
Good luck to Dox Quixote. He is a wonderful man, but he's spitting in the wind.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 22:54 - ID#423380)
Life forms, millions of years more advanced than ours, look at us,as we look at the worm.
Nice to study, but any attempt at communication would be futile.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:02 - ID#35757)
We may behave like worms ( may? ) . But unlike worms, we know there is a universe out there.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:02 - ID#423380)
@AU Wolf---Thanks for the info-----Nytol~~~~~~

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:07 - ID#224230)
@aurator et al
Slow Sunday down there ? A beautiful day here in Phuket.

Having watched Gene Hackman in "The Firm" last night I got bored and went gogo bar crawling till the wee hours. Got hammered and made it home on my big black Kawasaki !

Waking up this morning I remembered a dream I had last night. It went like this :-

My March Silver 6.00 Calls come home to daddy ( the dream didn't indicate at what price, but let's say at 7.00 - nice lucky number 7 ) ! I put the profits straight back into GOLD OCT99 340 Calls. Then I wake up not knowing whether or not they take off like a T.Rex. ( Think I'll go back to bed : )

In the early hours I was thinking though. This Euro thang....and Keizo Obuchi's begging trip to plead the case of establishing a third currency block.....

There is a big difference between balancing one plate on the end of a stick and trying to balance two or even three.

The inevitability of a single reserve currency is what has made USA so powerful. Do what you will in your country, make your economy grow and you still have to buy US$'s to trade ! WHIch is why the Europeans have pulled out many stops to try to challenge their dominant supremacy. ( and why the Brits aren't in it - it's the Anglo-Saxons vs. the rest now )

But surely, more than one "reserve currency" means that there IS NO RESERVE CURRENCY anymore. By definition. Add a third and you have a recipe for confusion or perhaps Freedom. But Freedom's a long way off.

With US$ and the Euro, funds can only oscillate between the two. Like a game of Ping Pong. With a third and things get to "flow" around the world so to speak. A recipe for real currency volatility. Which will scare people off paper and into you know what. A troy ounce of the shiny stuff is a troy ounce : no matter what notional paper-debt-value you want to give it in zlotis or Yen or Kip or Rupees etc. !

Then I pondered the JGB happenings of the last couple of weeks and the possibility that the Yen will crash through 110. Disaster for the Japanese exporters ( and the rest of Asia expecting the USA to import them out of their mess ) . While the direct implication is that the USA would be importing defacto inflation everytime a ship load of Japanese goods arrive.

( all of which screws up Asia's recovery - and hence world economic sentiment - leaving hot money funds no profitable roulette table left to play at..... )

CNBC on Friday - and even that know-nothing moose Kathleen Hays had to admit that she ( and everybody else she'd been asking moronic questions of, had "NO CLUE" as to what was happening to the Bond market. "Currents pulling it this way and that" I think she commented so very eloquently. DUH.

Yen strength ( deserved or otherwise ) and the imported inflation or fear thereof, plus the US Bond market ramifications and I think we here all get what we want. A rich recipe for GOLD to take off. But like the best casseroles, it's a slow cooking delight. Which one has to stir occasionally.

All of which has to come to roost by about End march - Japanese financial year profit repatriation time !! ( About the time WJC's fiasco will be drawing to an end. I predict about 2 months of uncertainty here !

I really think a clock is ticking now.

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:21 - ID#284255)
As much chance as the bell curve coming in???

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:25 - ID#263254)
MoRe GoLd on your 21:41...
It is indeed a shame that this kind of information is found more
readily on the internet. Occasionally, one can find similar commentary/documentation on channels such as Discovery, The Learning Channel, Arts and Entertainment, etc. Unfortunately it does not impact enough individuals.

John Disney
(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:31 - ID#24135)
trade balance
for esotericist/rhody ..
.. Liked and agree with Eso..'s 23:07 ?? post ..
with THREE reserve currencies how can the US possibly
balance its current account deficit by selling dumdum
bonds to people that KNOW the interest and the value
at maturity will come from a US printing press. They
KNOW because they hope to do the same thing themselves.
Believe ( hope ) this will lead to market for gold backed
bonds and possibly the use of gold to settle trade
... by the way the US trade deficit is up to a whopping
234 billion with the CA deficit at 210 !!!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:37 - ID#224230)
Just checked my email. I was saying... says....

"Nobody sifts through banking reports like Charles Peabody. He has
discovered significant information that may affect the market place
very soon. The major banks all have projections for the future that
are based on short and long term interest rates going the same way.
If they do not do that, Charles sees big banking problems on the horizon. They are not prepared for what Charles calls a
"non-parallel" shift in the yield curve. In other words our
Fed will step on the money juice to keep rates down, but long rates will go up. This has now begun in earnest. You know it is Midas' very strong held belief that their is a goon squad out there trying to keep the gold price down. It is led by Goldman Sachs. It did not go unnoticed to Charles that Goldman's Abby Cohen, noted Wall Street mega bull, shifted 2% of her portfolio from stocks to bonds. Bonds, not cash. It did get some heavy publicity.

The wagons are being circled. The Gitic default problem in the fall in
China now takes center stage Tuesday in that part of the world. Alan
Greenspan heads for Hong Kong today for previously scheduled
banking meetings. But, on Monday and Tuesday he is having hurried
banking meetings with all the Chinese. Would it surprise you if I
told you the big buyers of long term bonds on Friday were the
Central Bank of China and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority.

Midas told you on Thursday that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are
heading up a crises risk management team. Why are announcing this
now and doing so now? The stock market suggests all is blissful.

We here Credit Suisse is on the ropes. Brazil is in the news as one
of its states has defaulted.

As result of all of this, PEABODY PREDICTS the US banks will go down
60 to 80% in value. We will have a liquidity crash. The risk spreads
have not come in and that is what that is telling you.

Interestingly enough - Charles is loading up on gold stocks. The
last time he did so was in 1993. If you are a long time Jim Grant
fan, you know that because Jim Grant wrote Charles up then as I
am doing for you now."

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:41 - ID#153110)
In the spirit of thinking things through, what is a gold backed bond ?

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:51 - ID#371380)
Dont think Y2K is a problem?
This is what FEMA wants to tell children about Y2K!

(Sat Jan 09 1999 23:56 - ID#169332)
esotericist: the "Black Gold" you seek
"Lead is dense and heavy, hard and strong, lasts long without disintegrating; what is called true lead here is not ordinary material lead, but is the formless, immaterial true sense of real knowledge in the human body. This true sense is outwardly dark but inwardly bright, strong and unbending, able to ward off external afflictions, able to stop internal aberrations. It is symbolized by lead and so is called the true lead....Because its light illumines myriad existents, it is also called the golden flower. Because it is the pivot of creation, it is also called the North Star. Because it conceals light within darkness, it is also called metal within water."
Four Hundred Words on the Gold Elixir