Mike, your 18:16 was a riot! The clincher was the "2nd grayde" part. ROTFLMAO!
Envy, yep, that's the way I see it too. Smart money pays attention to both financial history and current world events and doesn't think itself so smart it can pick exact tops and bottoms, just the general neighborhoods. With all the standard valuation measures pegged hard on the SELL end of scale for the equity markets, and on the BUY end for PM's, well then that's what you do and don't worry if you miss out on the last 10% or even 25% of the mania. Or get hit for some losses in your new investments because you didn't guess the exact bottom. Ride it out because you're ahead of the thundering crowd, waiting for them to catch up and push your stuff to the moon. That's why I don't like time sensitive trading devices like options too much because you can get killed waiting for things to turn around. Ditto with buying on margin.
Someday, we'll both be very, very rich! Unless, of course, we're all delusional because we're betting against the Fed, WJC, and the biggest stock bull in bistory. Could go either way, I guess ;- )
Re the Euro being a dry run for Y2K, I thought the best analysis of the whole concept was Westergaard's contention that Euro efforts would hamper Y2K remediation and should be delayed till after rollover, something he knew would not be done due to political considerations. I must admit, I thought there would be some short term problems with the Euro but we haven't even seen that. I still think the first big stuff we'll see is on April Fool's day ( how appropriate! ) when Japan, Canada, and New York roll over to FY '00. Nothing catastrophic then, just bureacratic systems failing and gumming up the works. Kinda like the the teaser for the pregame show scheduled for July 1 when most of the States follow suit.
Kickoff for Y2K proper will Oct 1 when the Feds hit it. Things should be getting pretty interesting by that time. 60 Minutes grilling some government flunky, er, spokesperson, on why Medicare and AFDC keeled over
and stayed over when they'd promised all along that all mission critical systems would be fixed in time, panicky welfare recipients and retirees demanding their entitlements, Republicans blaming Democrats and vice versa, programmers failing to show up for work anymore, etc.

Don't use the frames version in times like this ( lurkers included ) .
Spock and Big Fisherman - Namaste.
Spock - Last night you were worried about what aliens had to do with price of Gold. - Think about it. If there ever was any serious panic due to the PERCEPTION of aliens ( whether they were really among us or not ) , that perception could very well be a very large factor in the POG. In fact ANY major panic could send Gold skyrocketing and that is why Y2K, the Suncruiser, clandestine weather experiments, Jap bondholdings, meteroite showers, electric cars and Euro-launches are all discussed here. If any one thing explodes on the scene and creates a panic it may be the catalyst that causes the flatline to be reborn.
May the Force Be With You.
Glenn - Have you yet relocated at least 50 miles from ground zero?
Goodnight ALL.

The Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan ( LTCB ) has chosen Goldman Sachs and Co. of the United States as its financial adviser, industry
sources said Monday.

As financial adviser, Goldman Sachs will act as a third party to evaluate LTCB's assets and help the now state-controlled bank decide how and to whom it will hand over its operations in compliance with the financial reconstruction law, the sources said.
http://home.kyodo.co.jp:80/cgi-bin/briefsStory#990111809

I bet Chase Bank gets a few more good bargains. How about GE Capital? They will do ok also.

HighRise

"Date: Sun Jan 10 1999 16:56

Cage Rattler ( Y2K and the Euro conversion success ) ID#33182:

Given that the Euro conversion process is commonly acknowledged to have been about 5 times larger ( approx 6 times larger budget ) than Y2K,..."

Wow, I was not aware of that at all. It certainly is not either my acknowlegement or experience. Can you cite some sources for this "common acknowlegement?" Perhaps you mean, what has been spent IN EUROPE has been 5 times greater than what has been budgeted ( or spent ) SO FAR IN EUROPE for Y2k? That I could believe. But Worldwide effect? Euro 5 times Y2k? I have my doubts, but since Euro conversion costs are "in and counted", then we can see in approx 511,200 minutes how much Y2k will weigh in at.

Personally, we have not had to convert our software at all for Euro, since, today, all Petroleum trades in USD, but have about 2.5 man years in on Y2K, and ours is easier than most! Should all of a sudden, we need to change the base currency to be in EURO, the total cost would be ( drumroll ) probably less than one man month. But this is only one system, and not representative of the world-at-large.

I really hope that I am wrong on Y2k and that it is a short term problem. I have bought 40% silver coin so that in the event that there is a downturn post Y2k in the event of a "non-event", that I cannot lose more than the face value. I enjoy reading your posts.

I should have stated that it was from a European perspective/scale. My source is from one of the largest investment houses in Europe - a good friend taking a holiday in South Africa.

Delphi also mentioned a some good points about the many different programs that were affected.

is doing his level best for the average American & certainly would'nt do anything that would benefit the establishment insiders at the expense of the Mom & Pop investors.
Such a trusting little soul & so refreshing to read compared to all the cynical gloom & doom that usually appears on this forum.

Signed

Robert Rubin

Anyone know a good place to purchase currencies ? Want physical delivery, low overhead. I know you can get them at the bank, but they have a pretty hefty fee on the exchange of currencies from what I understand. Thinking about picking up some of these Rubles the Russian folks are giving away, exchange rate is about 22 Rubles per $US which seems okay by me. I'm betting you can get a lot more if you were actually in Russia and purchased them from the regular folks, any thoughts on that ? I doubt Russia could look any uglier to investors than it does right now, feels like time to buy the currency.

http://shades.com/49er.htm

You might be interested in Franklin-Templeton Global and F-T Hard Currency Funds

http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q100bfe.htm

"Even in the unlikely event that the Japanese were to repatriate all $265bn of their holdings in US treasury bonds, that could be compensated by domestic investors in the US increasing their bond weighting by just 4 per cent at the expense of equities, says Phyllis Reed, a European bond strategist at Barclays Capital."


Could this be why the lovely and talented A.J. Cohen has changed her bond/stock weighting?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000144088531503&rtmo=Q3xxxL9R&atmo=rrvfqf0s&pg=/et/99/1/2/cneur02.html

Thanks for the pointer. Not what I'm looking for, but it was an interesting fund. They invest in money markets in currencies that "historically" have low inflation rates: Mark, Swiss Franc, New Zealand Buck, $US, and Yen. Nifty.

http://www.franklin-templeton.com/public/profiles/getprofile.htm?fund_nbr='412'

A bullion bank takes a 6,000,000 ounce gold loan from a CB at 1-1/2% compounded annually over 10 years, the bullion bank agrees to pay 650,580 ounces annually until extinguished.
Further assumed is that 3,000,000 ounces remain in the CB vaults; on which gold certificates are sold to investors for cash on the barrel head, cash that the bullion bank lends out for further profit, while its acts as the collecting agent for the CB vault storage fees on the gold certificates. Does the investor have to know where its stored? That he can get it on demand seems more important.
Lets also say that the bullion bank shifts segments of another 2,000,000 ounces into the eligible gold stockpiles of the various commodity exchange warehouses and receives payment for this; or lets a wall street investment banker, who has expertise in futures transactions churn this gold several times yearly, on which they split the take.
Finally lets say the bullion bank lends 1,000,000 ounces ounces to a gold producer for a new 650,000 ounce pa. mine at 3% compounded annually over 5 years. The miner becomes obligated to pay about 218,350 ounces annually on its loan. The bullion bank probably gets an upfront loan fee on top of the loan.
In essence the bullion bank and/or the wall street investment bank keep the gold price down and churn out big profits on the futures exchanges, probably with the collusion of the LBMA and the CB's.
The investors holding the gold certificates, probably give up and sell out their solid investment, likely at a loss. The gold miner, he's producing more gold which keeps a further lid on the gold price.
I WONDER IF THIS IS REALLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT IN BULLION BANK TERRITORY?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/mds8.htm

HighRise

CC Thank you for the correction on First Silver - it is on the Toronto EX.

Ray Hughes wrote the following about evaluationg silver stocks and PAASF particularly. Mr Hughes is a metal analyst with some experience and much sage advice I have found reading his posts on SI.

Hope he is right about $39 PAASF at $10 silver - though its very hard to imagine anything that dramatic happening to a precious metal stock.


From: Ray Hughes
Reply # of 192
on the PAASF board

After 30-something years in the metals analysis business I'm highly impressed by the
market's ability to sort out realities from fantasy. Let me start by observing that metals
companies are "options" on their underlying produced metals. Hence, a quick and dirty
valuation tool is their "premium." In the case of silver I've observed that the premium on
silver exhibits a trading range of about 7%-to-15% of the price of silver.

PAA is a simple analysis: 1 ) trading at US$5.00/sh. the market cap is about US$138
million 2 ) deducting working capital and adding debt ( nil ) leaves adjusted market cap of
about US$100 million 3 ) divide by the "reserves" of some 276 million ounces to
calculate that PAA's recoverable silver reserves are priced in the market at US$0.36/oz
4 ) divide US$0.36 by silver price of US$5.00/oz to yield a "premium of 7.25%.

This implies that the market will not pay for Dukat or for silver "mineralized rock" that is
very far "out of the money" until silver's market price moves several dollars higher,
thereby bringing mineralized rock closer to being "reserves."

This is not all bad: 1 ) with silver likely at a bottom at US$5.00/oz, and the 7.25%
premium at the lower end of the trading range, the stock might be a buy for the next
silver price uptick 2 ) PAA will provide a lot of leverage on a major silver price move if
the market then begins to value the mineralized rock as reserves.

Lets take a look a the kind of leverage that PAA might provide: 1 ) a silver move to
US$10.00/oz validates the reserves at 700+ mil. oz and, 2 ) the "premium" would likely
rise to 15%. In this case "reserves" would be about 26 oz/share and premium would be
about US$1.50/oz-per-share. This yields a target price of about US$39/share
( 26oz/share X US$1.50/share ) for a 680% gain.

This is before any consideration of silver equity prices becoming overvalued in a buying
frenzy. The very limited supply of pure silver equities could readily result in pure silver
companies becoming very highly overvalued. Hence, a quick and dirty projection
suggests PAA could provide better than a 680% price rise.

The Reward/Risk ratio might be better than 14:1. Figure this as a 680% upside divided
by, perhaps, a 50% downside.

RH

A second thought.
Some years ago, maybe not now, Traveler's Cheques in different currencies could be purchased free and at good rates at airports ( JFK et al ) . Barclay's were free, not American Express', as I recall.

Thanks for your response earlier and your other always interesting posts

The Hatt..... likewise ..... I will watch bonds and interset rates closely

Very good luck to all Kitco goldbugs in 1999
Brian

Gutnick and Normandy lauching bid for minority shares of Great Central Mining.

Thanks for the note, good idea.

The phone rings at KGB headquarters.
"Hello?"
"Hello, is this KGB?"
"Yes. What do you want?"
"I'm calling to report my neighbor Yankel Rabinovitz as an enemy of the
State. He is hiding undeclared diamonds in his firewood."
"This will be noted." said the KGB agent.

Next day, the KGB goons come over to Rabinovitz's house. They search
the shed where the firewood is kept, break every piece of wood, find no
diamonds, swear at Yankel Rabinovitz and leave.

The phone rings at Rabinovitz's house.
"Hello, Yankel! Did the KGB come?"
"Yes."
"Did they chop your firewood?"
"Yes, they did."
"Okay, now it's your turn to call. I need my vegetable patch plowed."

I was wrong, the current exchange rate is 23 Ruble and some change to the $US. I just keep hearing those CNBC commercials in my head "When the Ruble turned to Rubble" and think it can't be much more bearish than it is now for the poor little Ruble.

This ( -what follows ) , is an unfinished work, or mamuscript.
I offer it now, unconditionally, warts, wolves, and wonders -- all:

Subject: A 20th century Boom-to-Bust cycle: Will 1999 follow in 1929s footsteps ?!

{Note: the observations, and perspectives are solely my own, David Blair Macrory}

"These are the best of times; these are the worst of times." From A Tale of Two Cities

"We at the height, are ready to decline." Shakespeare.

"The only thing we learn from history, is that we fail to learn from history." Santyana.

"When the ego, or a society, has reaped the full hell of false security and status,, for which they have
so vainly sought; they are at the point of collapse, and rebirth." Oscar Ichazo.

From Don Bauder, San Diego Union-Tribune, 01/05/99 :
( copyright, The San Diego Union-Tribune, 1998-99 )
"I believe that this year, there will be one or two or more economic shocks that will bring on a panic, causing the worlds central banks to lower interest rates and print money massively  rescuing
stock markets, but not curing the underlying economic cancer."

This article is written in the tradition & spirit of the American revolutionary  Paul Revere.
I offer it to you, the reader, in dedication to  "Liberty" -- the inter-connected principle of:
monetary, economic, political, and personal freedom. May the epidemic of economic and monetary illiteracy, that is so pervasive in our schools, our board-rooms, and our government halls; find some
candle-light of flickering, quivering truth, herein.

From Thomas Jefferson:
"If the American people, ever allow their banking system, to control their money, first by inflation, then by deflation; their children will one day, wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

From Robert Kennedy ( paraphrased ) :
If we find even one, lost in a situation of hopeless darkness -- anyone who calls for help;
we can, rather than turning away, cursing the darkness;
turn instead to him, that we might - reach, and seek him;
offering a candle of light, and hope
helping our new-found friend,
and our world.

 No-matter what the darkness, we need but hold-forth, and firm;
with one faint, yet pure, candle of light. From Satchidananda ( -paraphrased )

From the brilliant Austrian economist Ludwig von-Mises:
"Government is the only agency, that can take a useful commodity like paper,
slap some ink on it; and make it totally worthless."

To every one thing, there is a purpose .. ( paraphrased, from the Christian Bible )

The purpose of this article, and text below, is to hopefully share some light ( -fresh perspective ) , and maybe some warmth ( -useful knowledge ) ; that might be helpful. If we learn how to best take care of ourselves in an unfolding decade of "Economic-Winter"; perhaps then we can help  by petitioning our governments, & serving others  we might then help, in finding the larger solution  establishing a common, international, enduring, stable monetary system.

And if enough of us get a good understanding of what is really going on, and what to do about it; then maybe, the generations of the next century, will not have to repeat a similar fate and folly, as the destructive boom-bust super-cycle of excess, that has so-plagued the 20th century.

From Robert Hemphill, Credit Manager of Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta, Ga. :
"This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial
banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If
the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are
absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the
picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless position is almost incredible, but there
it is. It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon.
It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely
understood and the defects remedied very soon".

A growing body of evidence suggests that this unfolding decade of "Economic-Winter", will not be unlike the 1930s, as it relentlessly grips and overtakes the worlds national economies, as they collapse, one by one, like so many, proverbial, falling dominoes.
From my 09/27/97 post, at web-site kitco.com:
"When the tent collapses,
it will not be the center post
that goes first;
but the side-posts,
and even the stakes."

By seeking a reasoned, open-minded, objective inquiry; we might well-conclude that the evidence is accumulating: that a decade or more, of "Economic-Winter", is unfolding upon the world, including the U.S. & Europe. Such hard-times, are now knocking at the doors of even the stronger nations, as their trading-ports pile up with a glut of cheap foreign imports, undermining domestic producers; and collapsing their own exports destined for abroad. The U.S. international-trade imbalance continues to hemorrhage, with a flood of U.S. dollars being pumped out into the world.

We pretend that we, the U.S. in particular, can continue to import something real  as in goods & services, from abroad  with phoney, unreal, paper-money and artificial credit. But this only serves to
place the U.S.s economic-neck, deeper into a noose, a noose controlled by the whim, and the self-preservation-instincts, of free, foreign capital flows. And, as foreign investment capital, gets nervous enough about the fragile stability and unfounded "soundness" of the U.S. economy; such capital flight will undermine our U.S. stock & bond markets, almost over-night; just as it has, in so many other countries since mid-1997.

And the new Euro, partially backed by gold, may well prove to be a welcome alternative to the once "King-Dollar". The Euro may very well replace the once gold-backed-dollar, as the worlds acceptable reserve-currency. Once our old, tired, king-dollar falls sharply, vis-a-vis the other stronger currencies; then, maybe, we will finally wake-up. But that will be too late. Paul Revere is already here. If we do not arise, & arouse ourselves, and very soon, our once almighty dollar, will virtually collapse, against all other major currencies, until it drowns, in a mire of our own profligacy -- of in-bred,
fiscal irresponsibility and largess.

As the U.S. dollar gradually loses its role, falling into international disuse and disrepute; Americas economic decline will become more obvious; and her once unquestioned world leadership, will have been sacrificed. Would the American people really allow a corrupted, government sanctioned central-banking system, the unbridled license to print money and create credit out of thin air. thus ruining our nation,
our livelihoods, and our "sacred honor" !? ( - from the U.S. Constitution )

The pre-eminence of the U.S., will topple, until it ultimately exhausts itself, in upon itself. The
Federal Reserve may monetize U.S. Treasury debt ever more feverishly; but even in such a diabolical process, it will have undermined and abandoned Americas once unquestioned pre-eminence, and respect, among the freedom-loving nations, and people of the world.

And the untold legions  known & unknown -- amongst her citizen-soldiers, who have sacrificed the ultimate on behalf of their country, spilling their blood upon continents around the world  will have sacrificed themselves, not for Liberty, but for the vanity of the power-brokers who still rule; with their unbridled, uncensored monetary and credit powers unlimited; manipulating their citizenry, as well as other nations, meanwhile continuing to plunder the resources of the earth.

So the hard-times of Economic-Winter, are just beginning to be obviously felt in the developed West -- knocking at the door of U.S. and European markets. As foreign money begins to withdraw from the U.S., her paper-dollars, & her bonds & stock markets; that sacred-cow known as "consumer-confidence" will begin to worry, then wobble, and then collapse --- especially as U.S. corporate layoffs accelerate, and unemployment begins to rise once again, like an over-due coiled serpent -- of relentless desperation,
pent-up frustration, and fear.

And especially in such a lop-sided economy, where indulged, debt-addicted, credit-card consumers, and plentiful, cheap services; make-up two thirds of the American mercurial economic-pie. We find that this pie can flip, or roll-over; and get easily burned to a crisp  on consumer-spending exhaustion. The U.S consumer is "tapped-out", on over-extended installment debt, with nary a per-capita savings-cushion to weather any significant rise in layoffs, should such an economic cold wind blow their way.

Meanwhile, the deflationary collapse and spreading depression have already broken down the door, and flooded the nations of  the markets and economies -- of many recently thriving, but smaller countries. Like so many falling dominoes, we have seen one after another country topple into economic decline, recession, and out-right depression. There are deep-seated, and ominous implications that the resulting wide-spread poverty portends, for the stability of our political world.

As one single, poignant example: a thriving, frugal, conscientious middle-class, in South Korea ; having been, in less than a year, virtually crushed, by wide-spread layoffs & unemployment; so much so that they are now forced to place their children into state-run orphanages, to insure that they are at least fed.

The doors of the strongest, developed nations, appear to be holding firm, but for only a moment longer. Supposedly immune to this spreading monetary-cancer & credit-malaise; this world-wide deflation-contagion of Economic-Winter, will find the U.S. too, as one more ill-prepared "victim" of the harsh, cold, corrupting monetary-winds, just beginning to blow-in. The international monetary systems cancer cannot help but spread world-wide, and sweep its way through, and across, all national borders and economic systems with impunity, including the U.S and Europe. It is inevitable, and
it is unavoidable.

Even the so-called strongest nations will succumb to this monetary and credit Titanic; for we are all part and parcel of this corrupted, international monetary system, even though once dominated by, and determined by .. the U.S. dollar. And yet, we in No. America and Europe, still prefer to distract ourselves, largely living in denial and wishful thinking, while the blind  our so-called leaders -- continue to lead the blind  our gullible, nave citizenry. This is particularly the case in the U.S., and to a lesser extent, in Western Europe.

The smaller, less developed countries are always the weakest-links, in the global economy, and the first to succumb. And so another decade of Economic-Winter, as it unfolds, will overtake the U.S. & Europe. Similar to the 1930s, it may however, be more intense, & protracted this time, since it is happening on a global and simultaneous scale.

And yet, by seeking the light of truth and understanding, as to how this has come about, and why; and what can be done about it; we might discover how best to get ourselves informed, and "warm"; in the midst of a protracted Economic-Winter. There are unique opportunities always, all along the way, in any
business cycle; including in the boom-to-bust cycle of the 20th century world.

Knowledge is power; and right action garners inner-wisdom, and well-being; no matter what outer storm-clouds there are, that may be gathering. Collective, mass psychology is often predictable, and often self-defeating. But the individual always possesses his/her right to God-given free-fill, the innate power of
free-choice, and independent thinking.

As a whole new decade of Economic-Winter is unfolding upon the world, we have a unique opportunity to gain the insight and understanding that can lead us to prudent and timely action; to provide for ourselves, to assist others, and to petition our governments for the redress of our governments abuses of power. The underlying errors  the causes  the roots -- of the problems, that have evolved into this boom-to-bust super-cycle economic world, can, and must, be addressed, and solved.

Otherwise, we will continue to careen into a disintegrating world economy, that is wrecking havoc and misery on multitudes, and relentlessly exploiting the less fortunate and innocent. All the while, such a boom-bust global economy insures the ever-concentration of more and more wealth,
in fewer and fewer hands.

If we do our homework now, and take reasoned, bold, individual & cooperative action NOW, we stand a good chance of thus learning to be able to help ourselves, and our children; and the next generation,
by seeking out the largely hidden and overlooked opportunities in these years of Economic-Winter. By best providing for ourselves, and serving those we can, we might live in faith that future generations of the new millennium, will be promised a higher order of economic-seasons unfolding; so that the next up-ward cycle of Economic-Spring and Economic-Summer might flourish, more equitably, and universally, for all peoples, everywhere.

Surely we can find the vision, the courage, and the commitment, to do our part, individually and collectively, to make the next millennium, one of reason, justice, peace, and prosperity, for the greatest numbers of the human family, across national boundaries &, ethnic identities; and regardless of economic and political power-blocks of self-interest.

The coming decades of Economic-Spring and Economic-Summer, which will inevitably follow this decade of Economic-Winter, will usher in the foundation for the greatest chapters so far, in the evolution of humankind. The super-cycles underlying, more moderating, eternal-balancing, of the rhythm of all of life on earth; will not, and cannot, ever be denied. We have but to learn how to best live in harmony with its ebb and flow, and then find the reasoned courage, to act accordingly.

Well into the new millennium, we will look back on this chapter of Economic-Winter, and recognize the boundless & unique opportunities that presented themselves, but only to the informed; while the masses continued to be led, and lost; like so many blinded lemmings, being misguided & misled over the cliff  by the economic & political spin-doctors from the belt-way; and from virtually every other government-sanctioned central-banking power of pundits & elites.





At this critical, momentuous, turning-point time, when genuine, statesmanship-like, leadership is called for; unfortunately, at least in the U.S, it seems that the proverbial "nero, continues to fiddle
( -over impeachment ) ; while "Rome", and the whole world are burning. Genuine, courageous statesmanship, rooted in integrity, and possessing far-sighted vision; are an endangered-species  and are virtually no where to be found, in the government & central-banking institutions that are the power-brokers of our world today. Truly, the blind are leading the blind;
and the implications are ominous.

It will take an informed, and aroused body-politic of collective-citizenry, working to petition their governments for the reform of both their national, and the international monetary and credit system; a monetary system that will be workable, reliable, constant, universally trusted, and immune to any particular special interests manipulation or control. In order for our global economy to renew and restore itself, all nations must become willing enough to unite on this common denominator  a common medium of exchange, PLUS a universally trusted store of value. These dual functions make up the real definition and meaning, the bed-rock foundation, and the building-blocks, of "real-money",
for all of civilized civilization.
.
And in the 20th century, this truth, and timely principle of real money, has been abandoned, for the sake of political expedience, domination, and control. And yet, over 5,000 years of history remind us, would we but heed, hear, and learn from the lessons of the past: gold-backed money and credit, alone, will serve this vital, essential dual purpose and function of real money  the backbone, and the heart-beat of
any and all living cultures and societies.

Real money is the basic building-block, and the mortar, that is trusted everywhere; and that insures the equality, liberty, and promise of free-markets, where freely-negotiated trade & commerce can flourish, among free people. In this reality, the hope of prosperity stirs in the hearts of all of humanity, across borders. One day, perhaps as soon as the next millennium, there will b an enduring reign of peace upon our planet. Its foundation will be rooted in the universal acceptance and standard of gold-backed money and credit, for all peoples, everywhere.

Meanwhile, weve really got our work cut out for us. We could use a legion, or a million,
"monetary-liberty Paul Reveres", today..arousing the misinformed, sleeping masses. It will most likely take us well into the new millennium to restoring a monetary, economic, political, and personal freedom, for the citizens of the world; and the business-cycle will, sooner or later turn up again, as the economic-seasons of Economic-Spring and Economic-Summer flourish once more upon the Earth. But for the moment, the immediate future is increasingly ominous, as Nero continues to fiddle ( over impeachment ) , while Rome and the whole world are burning  going down in the consuming flames of crashing currencies, collapsing economies, and orchestrated, suffocating depressions. The immediate outlook is even more foreboding, as more and more national dominoes fall: Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, So. Korea, Honk-Kong, Russia, Taiwan, China, Brazil, and others. Closer to U.S. shores, Mexico is gasping, and Canada is hanging on by its finger-nails.

Through the evolution of government-monopolized, central-banks, the 20th centurys economies have, by manipulated monetary & banking systems, become distorted into boom-to-bust super-cycles . of ultimate extremes: from mania-excess to deflationary-collapse, and from collapse back to excess, again.
And it is the ultimate hubris, that generously salaried government bureaucrats, and their favored central and commercial bankers, are succeeding at lining their pockets, deeply; while innocent millions exist in desperate want, with starving babes at their breast; while the towers of power, continue their opulent parties of celebration, amongst their well-heeled comrades; well into the quintessential nite of eternal stars; stars that look down also, on a bilion or so, teeming, and screaming babies, who starve for but a morsel, in their dying dream.

May the power-brokers of the government-banks, live their lives with sleeps of tormented dreams, where they might feel the tormented screams of the the innocent legions, who famish, at the forgotten end, of their false money machines.

From Reginald McKenna, a 19th century banker, of England:
"Give me control of a nations money; and I care not who makes the laws.

1999 could be shaping-up as a repeat of 1929. Governments have garnered awesome ( -though little understood- ) power over their citizens, through their central-bank institutions, which have abandoned the independence, discipline, integrity and accountability -- that real, gold-backed money would provide. They have replaced it with paper currencies and artificial credit, which are continually created by the billions, at will  for the sake of political expediency. They attempt to control and manipulate the financial and economic affairs of their citizens. 20th century governments have sanctioned their central banks with virtually unlimited power over the meaning, value, and availability
of money  currency & credit.

With the pretense that they know what theyre doing, central bankers more often react, often clumsily, to
the otherwise free, natural economic changes of the market-place. Rather than controlling and managing, sooner or later they make matters worse; as they mushroom or withdraw money supply, and fiddle with interest rates. But what is really going on, is much bigger than any group of men & institutions -- of any nation or alliance -- can manage or control. Over several generations, there has been an exponential growth in peoples expectations, and dependency, on government. This is at the heart of the international monetary crisis, spreading deflationary collapse, and Economic Winter, that are sweeping the world.

An otherwise moderating business-cycle has been replaced or eclipsed, as boom-bust economies -- from excess to austerity -- have increasingly characterized all national economies in the 20th century. These politically contrived and cancerous monetary and credit systems, are dominated by the U.S. dollar. The U.S. paper-dollar, as the worlds reserve-currency, has, for generations, become the high-octane money and credit fuel  driving the world to a debt-pyramided precipice, of over-extended , debt-bloated,
bubble-economies, around the globe.

The extreme, inflating bubble-boom times, are followed by the bust times  ushering in global deflationary depression, which overtakes the smaller & and more fragile national economies first. This Economic-Winter is repeating again, similar to the 1930s. It is a 20th century phenomenon of modern civilization. As the dominant theme of this tumultuous century, this boom-bust super-cycle is now carrying the world into an Economic-Winter, that is spreading inevitably, and unavoidably, from nation to nation, and from one region to the next.

This world-wide, economic-season of Economic-Winter could persist for a generation or more. What is needed is bold, cooperative international leadership, rooted in integrity If it does not come to the world-scene, and soon..with genuine leadership dedicated to monetary & credit reform, and to establishing a common, international money and credit system, acceptable to all nations in the global economy; then the global Economic-Winter, which began in the summer of 1997, will persist for years to come.

Economic-Winter appeared first, in some of the global economys so-called weaker-links : Southeast Asias Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and S. Korea in1997; then Russia, and more recently, Brazil and South America, in 1998. Such extreme, prolonged hard-times ( like the U.S. in the 30s ) , can indeed, be identified as an unfolding Economic-Winter. At this millennium-time, it is declaring and establishing its place, within historys super-cycle time-frame. It is one of the economic-seasons, that are characteristic of the 20th centurys boom-to-bust, business-cycles of extremes.

The so-called "Asian contagion", is a misnomer: there is no "Asian" contagion. It is a world-wide
monetary & credit contagion, built on the false premise -- rooted in political manipulation and expediency -- that some thing real ( -such as real money ) , can be created out of nothing. The experience of the 20th century, includes two persistent, virulent themes: mans exploitation of, and inhumanity to, his fellow-man; and the relentless rape of the earth and her resources. These are both symptoms of, and by-products of, economies careening from excess to austerity & back again  due to a corrupting monetary and credit malaise, that afflicts all nations bubble-economies, and societies, today.

The unfolding Economic-Winter is characterized by nations volatile, collapsing currencies, exhausted demand, excess supply, and deflating credit systems. Meanwhile, growing international tensions with looming trade-wars, threaten the global economys jugular  international trade and commerce. And deepening political and international instability are further fueled by spreading, intensifying poverty  imposed on growing millions of recently middle-class citizens of the nations of the world. One by one, nations faulty currencies collapse, with the flight of free-capital, which always seeks a safe and stable "haven", before it is willing to be invested in productive endeavors.

Symptoms of a bubble-economy , similar to those of other countries which have toppled, also characterize the U.S.: over-valuations in securities & real estate markets; wide-spread speculation; increasingly idled, manufacturing over-capacity; and spreading layoffs with growing unemployment. Meanwhile, the over-extended U.S. economy is undermining itself with one of the lowest per-capita savings rates, among the developed nations. And it continues to consume over 50% of the worlds production and resources, yet has only 6% of the worlds population. A paper-dollar denominated, and dominated, global economy, has, over decades, led the U.S. economy out on a weakening limb  of dependency on foreign capital, cheap labor from abroad, and a tenuous "king-dollar".

Thus, today the U.S finds itself out on a ledge  of ever-expanding, growth in unsustainable credit and debt. There is no possible, gradual return, or gentle re-balancing, from such excesses. Borrowing a nations way, into growth and prosperity, is simply not sustainable, over time.

A growing body of evidence suggests that 1999 could become the fulcrum-point, or turning-point,
for the U.S. economy and markets. Economic-Winter, and hard-times may have begun with capital flight, and monetary turmoil in Southeast Asia, in mid-1997. But it continues to spread around the world, reaching not only Eastern Europe & Russia, and South America & Brazil; but also Hong Kong,
and now, Taiwan and China too, are being impacted.

And Economic-Winter will, in 1999, begin to be experienced more obviously, and widely, including
in the U.S. & European economies; with increasing unemployment, excess capacity, continuing monetary instability, and vulnerable investment markets.

Uniquely, the U.S. has, in a few fast decades, become the largest debtor nation in the world. Were it not for the presence of foreign capital still investing in American stock and bond markets, we would have already experienced the sudden volatility, and the deflationary decline -- even collapse -- that have already over-taken so many other nations. In the global economys politically-dominated, monetary, financial, and economic affairs of nations; there is wide-spread manipulation, misunderstanding, misinformation, wishful thinking, and denial; and a pattern of lemming-like blind-leading-the-blind. This has ultimately pervaded the entire fabric of civilization. It has helped national economies to balloon into the over-development, excess-capacity, wide-spread corruption and speculation that can be seen today, if we are willing to look beneath the surface appearances.

From Proverbs, in the Christian Bible:
"A people without vision, will perish."
Or:
"Where there is no vision; the people are unrestrained."

From Martin A. Armstrong, Princeton Economics International, http://www.pei-intl.com>http://www.pei-intl.com
( copyright 1998 PEI, all rights reserved ) :
"At the height of many of the greatest bubbles in history, one always finds optimism that attempts to explain why this cycle is different, and that a correction will never come. At the depth of the business cycle we often find the lowest level of human confidence, with such prevailing views that things cannot ever get better again."

After decades of credit-fed, over-extended Economic-Spring & Economic-Summer, it is the time in the business super-cycle, for the economic-seasons to change. And once there is a basic understanding of what is really going on, and why; there are always, unique opportunities that can be identified, even in the season of Economic-Winter.

From Shakespeare ( -the parentheses & editing are mine ) :
We at the height, are ready to decline. There is a tide ( -& time ) in the affairs of men; which ( if ) taken at the flood ( -or crest ) , leads on to fortune. ( but if- ) omitted, all the balance of their lives are bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea, are we now afloat. We must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures."

If you wish to explore these ideas further  the root causes, possible solutions, and some of the unique opportunities in this turning-point-time of the business cycle, I have included a few web-site addresses,
as additional sources of information, with their urls listed below. And you are welcome to contact me.

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
essene@k-online.com
goldfever@k-online.com

A few of the web-sites I recommend:
http://www.pei-intl.com
http://www.princetoneconomics.com
http://www.the-privateer.com
http://www.kitco.com
http://www.golden-eagle.com
http://www.decisionpoint.com
http://www.aicinvestmentadvisors.com

Wonder if they will push dollar up? Dollar strong against Euro, didn't expect that at the outset.

Whilst I concur with much of what you've written here, why not simply put a link to your unfolding "magnum opus" and succinctly post that alone when you've added yet another bon mot, salacious sentence or perceptive paragraph.

This as yet unstructured stream of consciousness has been posted here many many many many times. Come on dude, spare us.

While I have your undivided attention, some helpful tips on creative writing....

1. Make sure your story has a hero.
2. And a heroine.
3. Make sure the hero gets the heroine by the end of the piece.
4. Include a steamy love making scene - though not in too graphic detail. Remember, less is more.
5. Try to avoid overuse of the subjunctive.

Do all that and you'll have a best seller.
Good luck.

"Spock - Last night you were worried about what aliens had to do with price of Gold. - Think
about it. If there ever was any serious panic due to the PERCEPTION of aliens ( whether
they were really among us or not ) , that perception could very well be a very large factor in
the POG. In fact ANY major panic could send Gold skyrocketing and that is why Y2K, the
Suncruiser, clandestine weather experiments, Jap bondholdings, meteroite showers, electric
cars and Euro-launches are all discussed here. If any one thing explodes on the scene and
creates a panic it may be the catalyst that causes the flatline to be reborn.
May the Force Be With You."

you wouldn't notice it by the performance of the S&P on the Globex overnight. Up a powerful 650 points - bonds nearly back to even - if the bonds don't fall ( long rates rise ) we are in for another leg up in the stock market at least to 10,000. That's almost fiqured into the equation, now.

Doomsday may be right around the corner and we have certainly been warned, already already. I just wished I had bought one share of Yahoo every time I read a doomsday forecast - I just wish I had bought Yahoo and never read any doomsday forecasts. ( The fools over there are the ones with the money - the object of the game??!! )

Does any body think, just maybe, we won't have a market crash and meltdown this year or next. Does anybody think that maybe a 10% correction from any level on the DOW would be a buying opportunity not the beginning of the end.??? No I don't think so, that thinking is non existant on this board.

Not a stock market optomist in the lot. We are all too well informed about the Central Bank conspiracies, the credit bubble, thw trade imbalances - yes, we know too well that equities are over valued and due for a fall - we've been that well informed for a year at least. We had one moment of glory and gold sputtered.

Hang on to those Dow crash theories, hold on to that thought....

Dow 10,000 before gold $315!!!!!

I'll remember your ingrediants for a great novel.

Somebody ought to write on with aliens and gold. While aliens might love gold that would probably be just our luck - they'd take it all and the exchanges would close, it would be decleared illegal and have another reason to go no where in the face of another treat.

Lets be realistic, why would aliens with any brains come here. Certainly not for the peace and haromny of the place unless that was lost from where they came. Look at the problems they would face if they tried to take over. Suppose they have a solution to the trade deficit, social security, Iraq, North Korea, famine and poverty.??? If they didn't trash the place and enslave us all, they might be friendly guys and gals with some good ideas - probably bullish for equities. Heck, come on down aliens - have we got a show for you.

Dealers say fall seen accelerating, but props expected at 108.60/65 and then 108.00 Brazil worries, and their effects on the Dow, fueling yen. Euro/yen at lowest level since currency introduction, well below 127.00. Tanami said Japan would take appropriate action in case of drastic moves. Be mindful that the ECB and the Bank of Japan, just prior to euro launch said that they would intervene on each other's behalf if strong fluctuations occurred.

How do you know when to sell some of that Yahoo bought. Got a plan? Or are you going to wait for the invisible "top".

Am I mistaken or are we in an era now when the predictive value of fundamentals has become unreliable ?

What I perceive is that across the board intervention and participation by governments in markets by regulatory and financial means is much more pervasive than is commonly admitted. When you are speaking in trillions as in derivatives and CAFR numbers, these are not trivial or sideline amounts.

There is the mental protection mechanism at work here which goes by the name denial. The possibility that markets are no longer free enough to behave like free markets is simply too awful to face.

And so the myth of an exhuberant bubble is substituted instead. A mania of human action is a kind of irrationality we can cope with. The kind of irrationality which government management of economies produces is not.

Monday, January 11, 1999 http://www.smh.com.au/index.html

Asia's gold meltdown a bonanza for
Australians

By TOM ALLARD in Canberra

Asians hit by the regional economic crisis sent $2 billion worth of gold
jewellery and other items to Australia last year to be melted down, giving a
boost to the local refining industry.

The 100 tonnes of gold, including wedding rings, bracelets, necklaces and
trinkets, came from all sections of society - from Indonesian villages to the
penthouses of Seoul.

The bulk of it was sent from South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand, where the
currencies' freefall in mid-1997 triggered widespread unemployment and
poverty.

The items are flown here in secured suitcases and then refined into gold bars
which are typically exported to markets in the Middle East, India and London.

Some of the gold will also find its way into Australian shops after being melted
and recycled as jewellery.

Official statistics show that $1.75 billion of "non-monetary" gold was imported
in the year to September from Asia, excluding Japan, while the previous year
the figure was just $61 million. That is a 2,874 per cent increase.

An additional $303 million of such gold came into Australia during October
and November.

Although the importation earns a good profit for refineries, their clients and the
security firms that carry the gold, the refineries reject any suggestion that they
are exploiting the misfortune of Asians.

"I don't see how it could be seen as exploiting Asia," said Mr Greg Mcleod,
general manager of one of Australia's two gold refineries, Johnson Matthey.

"It's a matter of how they store their wealth. Asians use gold that way and, if
they've been hoarding it as an investment, it makes sense to sell if the bottom
falls out of your currency and you need US dollars."

The deputy managing director of the Australian Gold Refineries joint venture,
Mr David Bishop, said the big profits were earned by the Asian jewellers and
traders who bought the jewellery.

The re-exporting of processed gold has also bolstered Australia's trade
performance, with gold exports accounting for one-third of the increase in
export revenue in the year to September.

What comes to a less-kindly mind is to repeat the name of a certain island, several times, while phocussing on the phricative....

eso
There should be a memorablee descriptive passage or too that grounds us in everyday reality, say like this:


"I smelled Los Angeles before I got to it. It smelled stale and old like a living room that had been closed too long. But the colored lights fooled you. The lights were wonderful. There ought to be a monument to the man who invented neon light. Fifteen stories high, solid marble. There's a boy who really made something out of nothing."
Raymond Chandler

throw in something from an erotic book that talks about gold, to keep things on topic:

It is better to have a pigeon today than a peacock tomorrow; and a copper coin which we have the certainty of obtaining, is better than a gold coin, the possession of which is doubtful.
Kama sutra Part 1 Chapt 2

We need a focus, an enigmatic hero like Lucian in the romance of Apuleius:
This romance was written in the second century CE, and is called the golden Ass because of its excellency. It contains the adventures of Lucian, a young man who, being accidentally metamorphosed into an ass while sojourning in Thessaly, fell into the hands of robbers, eunuchs, magistrates, and so on, by whom he was ill-treated; but ultimately he recovered his human form.

and a final bloody denoument in epic form, like The Ballad of Reading Gaol

Some kill their love when they are young,
And some when they are old;
Some strangle with the hands of Lust,
Some with the hands of Gold:
The kindest use a knife, because
The dead so soon grow cold.
Oscar Wilde


Damn pity limey wont read this.

Stock looks a little over extended. Left a gap a ways back down there at $300 - I'd sell it at the opening today.

BRUSSELS ( AFX ) - The Association of European Airlines ( AEA ) said it condemns increases in airport charges by some airports to compensate "for the loss of profits from the abolition of intra-EU duty free."

"Airport terminals are prime real estate. The more dynamic airport managements should have no problem in attracting blue-chip retailers onto their premises," AEA secretary general Karl-Heinz Neumeister said.

Noting the "substantial impact" the abolition of duty-free may have, the AEA said the airports have had since 1991 to come to terms with the change.

"A modern consumer-orientated business, if for whatever reason loses part of its market, cannot simply charge more to its remaining customers. Only a monopoly can do that," it said.

Airports which have announced higher charges include Copenhagen, Dublin and those administered by the British Airports Authorities, AEA said.

Chasabar
Now, were you lurking those many months ago when I was speaching about a turkey that was mothering some ducks back on the farm? We called them "The Tucks." I speculated what we'd've called the ducks, had they been raised by a pheasant. 'n Auric found us some links about the legendary resort town of Phuket in Thailand, pronounced, of course, poo ket.

Y'all'd have trouble with Maori names. Not to mention the special font that needs a macron over the "o" that indicates a modifier like a dipthong.
{token gold paragraph commences now}
Although there was gold in the rivers of the S Island, the maori prized it not. They sought the tough pounamu [poh - u- nah- moo] that we call greenstone/jade both for beautiful ornament when highly polished and to fashion into weapons of war, particularly sharp club called mere [maire - ray] that will cleave one's skull like a Ginzu knife through butter.

Now that's what I like to see, "a good plan". Will do. Now, about my comex gold shorts.......I'm holdin' the physical...... Loosing my ask! What to do now??

Live Long and Prosper

If you are holding Physical along with comex shorts you're doing pretty well if you've had the position for any time and the positions are of equal size. The short futures position has gained as time premium has eroded away and gold for year is up 70 cent.

REcommend selling the physical maintaining the the short futures on the first sign of aliens or at 11:59 December 31, 1999 - which ever comes first..

Good info, thanks. Just put this all together before GreenHead raised rates 3X. Lost a little, but I'm waitin' for an asteroid or sumptin'. Anyway, go Gold, up or down, just GO somewhere.......!!

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=1ym

Interesting that the 200 day the 50 day and the current price are all at the same price ( +or- ) .

960 area has become a point of resistence; could of course be a point of new found support, could be irrelavent.....but interesting note, IMHO

Need to cover my shorts now, and help the PPT get it on the plus side before CNN opens their BS line at 6AM, and puts the SNP bug up.

It appears gentlemen, that I've struck a little resonant frequency in my last missive... ; )

ChasBar - I'm sorry squire, you're going to have to spell out your meaning. Which island would that be ? Or am I being dense ?

And now to Gold....ever the on-topic poster..

At the BIS meeting in HongKong...Greenspan was even more tight-lipped than usual, declining to even greet reporters on his arrival in Hong Kong. Nothing's coming out of that meeting yet. Asian Currency block ? Don't hold your collective breath.

I suppose we'll have to wait for the next poker moves to be made after he gets back to his hotel suite, poors himself a long cool scotch soda and picks up a secure line to report to his Goldman Sachs masters in NooYork.

Expect some interesting blips tonight. Anyone for popcorn ?

( Now back now to my wordprocessor to complete paragraph one of my new novel tentatively titled "The Gold ( en ) Viagra Pill" ) Stay tooned.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^XAU&d=3mm

The XAU is also right at its 200 & 50 day moving average. There is a gap at 74. How about a gap up opening over 74 leaving a semi isolated bottom!!

Gold is up 30 cents now following the drop in the dollar below 110 yean and the 1000 point reversal in the S&P on the Globex. Bonds down a third of a point.

Falling dollar falling bonds is the combination I've been thinking might ignite a gold run to ..... maybe $295???

Would that island be in Thailand??
Bet those meeting with the Chinese are pretty interesting.

Maybe gold will be mentioned???

We, at the height
are ready to decline.
There is a tide
in the affairs of men,
which, if taken at the 'flood'
leads on to fortune.
Omitted,
all the balance of their lives,
are bound in shallows,
and in miseries.
On such a full sea
are we now a-float.
We must take the current
when it serves,
or lose our ventures.

Normandy to make a full take over bid for Great Central Mines.....


http://www.normandy.com.au/

http://www.ausgold.com/gcm/


Haggis

Jims - I was being dense. I spell it Pookette actually ! A name which derives from the Malay "Bukit", meaning a hill. I might have known ! DUH.

This whole ph pronounced as a p is a sanskrit thang. They insert "haitches" round here as much as 19th century domestic servants used to drop them.

Goldfever - yes my friend, The Bard is a good place to start acquiring literary skills : ) And while we're on the subject, Romeo and Juliet a good plot structure to plagiarise, too. Not of a lot of grey area with regard hero or heroine in that little tale.

Relentlessly back to the other plot. Maybe the Japanese allow the dollar to fall - for a month or so, whilst buying up all the shiny stuff. Then slap down their 4 aces the next time the FEC gets uppity with their pair of deuces. Anybody like the movie Brazil ? Coming soon ( again ) to a rundown fleapit cinema near you.

http://www.normandy.com.au/

Haggis

January 11, 1999
Silver, After a Rough 1998,Shows Signs of Perking Up

By TERZAH EWING Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Since just after Christmas, the silver market has been visited by the ghost of rallies past. Since falling below $4.70 an ounce on Dec. 2, its second trip to that low level since prices spiked in February on news of Warren Buffett's interest in the market, silver has climbed fairly steadily. Last week it booked increases every day but Monday, with the largest a 12.3-cent jump on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. On Friday, the March contract rose 4.8 cents to settle at $5.288 an ounce, the nearest-month's highest close since Oct. 1. While that's still nowhere near last year's high of $7.28 an ounce, hit at the height of the buying frenzy spawned by the Omaha investor's purchases, the current increase's timing echoes the price's move ahead of Mr. Buffett's announcement last year. It's also well above the lows below $4 an ounce that the front-month futures contract saw in the early 1990s. Silver, unlike gold, base metals and other commodities, hasn't been anywhere near its historic lows recently.

That's not to say 1998 wasn't a rough year for the white metal. After the peak early in the year, silver prices slipped steeply, traded in a range, then slipped again. And it isn't certain the rally will continue. Rumors about Mr. Buffett shedding or adding to his large silver position constantly circulate on trading desks in New York and London. A spokeswoman for Berkshire Hathaway, Mr. Buffett's firm, referred inquiries about the position to the firm's written policy against discussing its investments.

Still, regardless of whether Mr. Buffett has bought more or sold, silver has held up well compared with gold's long slide and the disastrous performance of its base-metal cousins.

One of the reasons for the silver price's relative hardiness is its hybrid status as both a base and precious metal. That can be a double-edged sword: Neither group has been a bullish influence this year, with poor Asian demand pressuring down base-metals prices and the weight of central-bank sales and waning investor interest slicing into gold.

But because the prices for the two kinds of metals don't move up and down together, silver traders have two sets of factors to look at when deciding whether to make a bullish or bearish bet. "It's predominantly an industrial metal," says Jim Vail, who manages the Lexington Strategic Silver Fund, the only silver-stocks mutual fund in the U.S. David Rinehimer, director of futures research at Salomon Smith Barney, added Friday, "It's trading off its commodity fundamentals. The stock market is high and we've had good economic numbers today. I don't think that's a negative background for silver." However, silver also acts like a precious metal sometimes, which brings in the added factor of investment demand. Traders and analysts note that one positive influence on silver prices recently arose from the precious metals trade in India, a key demand center for both gold and silver.

The Indian government, citing gold's not-always-salutary influence on the country's foreign-exchange balance, early last week said it raised the customs duty on imports of the yellow metal to 400 rupees, or about $9.33, per 10 grams from 250 rupees, or $5.87. To the cost-conscious Indian investor interested in precious metals, the duty on gold makes silver look like a better value. That gives a boost to demand.

Another, more straightforward factor buoying silver is the level of Comex stockpiles of the metal, Mr.Rinehimer said. They now stand at about 76.9 million ounces, well below the year high of above 110 million ounces. And technical traders, who buy and sell commodities based on price trends rather than supply/demand factors, say historical charts have been working in silver's favor, helping propel the market higher as key price levels were breached. Some of the same traders caution that silver's rally may not last, particularly if the bullish technical signals turn
bearish and send the price back below $5.15 an ounce.

Meanwhile, gold, still trading in the doldrums between $285 and $300 an ounce, is scrambling to find some news to follow and doesn't look likely to benefit from a continued rally in silver. "There's a lot of noise in the market at the moment and we're trying to get beyond that to see what is really happening," says Kevin Crisp, vice president at J.P. Morgan in London. The gold market got some relatively positive news Thursday. European Central Bank officials said the institution, which has surpassed the U.S. Federal Reserve as the world's largest holder of gold, doesn't plan any sales of the metal "for the moment and for the foreseeable future." Central banks sales have exerted a persistent downward pressure on gold prices in the last two years, and the ECB, a new player, has been a wild card.

Mr. Crisp says the increase in recycled supplies due to such sales and bank leasing, coupled with the increased subjection of gold to market forces, has changed the texture of the gold market. "Really, gold is not a scarce commodity any longer," he says. "It lost a lot of its mystique as the market liberalized."

so is the Kama Sutra saying we should be buying copper?

http://www.cbcnews.cbc.ca:80/news/cp/business/990110/b011002.html

http://www.libertyresearch.com/images/_crb.gif

UK - POLICE MUST BE READY FOR THE MILLENNIUM
http://www.nds.coi.gov.uk/coi/coipress.nsf/ec99f27fdec7ef20802564da002d9e0f/7d016413ff6c1c3e802566f300435d07?OpenDocument>http://www.nds.coi.gov.uk/coi/coipress.nsf/ec99f27fdec7ef20802564da002d9e0f/7d016413ff6c1c3e802566f300435d07?OpenDocument

From here
http://www.nds.coi.gov.uk/coi/coipress.nsf
Under the Home Press's latest announcements

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990110/cv.html

All chartists - Take a look at Jims S.A. chart - It looks set to go vertical! "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -----Albert Einstein
"This time, like all times, is a very good one,
if we but know what to do with it". ---Ralph Waldo Emerson
"Never use intuition." ---Omar Bradley ( Conservative ( but winning ) WW2 General- Mooney )
"An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory." ---Friedrich Engels ( 1820-95 )
"The man who has no imagination has no wings." ---Muhammad Ali
"When a man's willing and eager, the gods join in." ---Aeschylus
"Give me a lever and place to stand, and I will move the world." ---Archimedes
( Figured I owed a few! ;-0 - Mooney )

It will be interesting to watch this dollar / Yen thing play out. It appears that we may be entering a period of competitive devaluation. Poor Euro.... If this is so, then look for a surprise in the inflation numbers at some point down the road. Sort of like a variation of old style mercantilism. We shall see. Perhaps now is the time to hike them skirts in stocks... :- ) )

http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/php/Prices/choice.html

LME Press Release
http://www.lme.co.uk/cgi-bin/press.cgi

Lowrisk crash of 99?
http://www.lowrisk.com/99crash.htm

Remember when the yen was hitting new lows and Rubin with the BOJ intervened? Gold shot up.

Now the yen is hitting two year highs and intervention will go the other way.

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CnPMfub8ZtdeXmJq1odq5&FQ=v%25reuter&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20v%25reuter%0A

As of last Friday ,the XAU has been up SIX consecutive days in
a row.
Going back to 1991 this has not happened.The gains have not
been impresssive so far, though, in percentage terms. My data
does not go back to 1985, so this may have taken place before.
This must have some technical significance.

No one will be in any hurry to jump into the gold carry trade with bonds falling:

08:32 US MARCH T-BOND CONTRACT OFF 17/32 TO 124-20.
08:32 US 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE OFF 1/32 TO 99-25, YIELD AT 4.74%.
08:32 US 10-YR TREASURY NOTE OFF 9/32 TO 98-24, YIELD AT 4.91%.
08:32 US 5-YR TREASURY NOTE DOWN 2/32 TO 97-27, YIELD AT 4.75%.
08:32 US 30-YR TREASURY BOND OFF 1/4 AT 99-08, YIELD AT 5.299%.
08:32 US 1-YR T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE UP 4 BASIS POINT TO 4.41%.
08:32 US 6-MONTH T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE UP 5 BASIS POINTS AT 4.40%.
08:32 US 3-MONTH T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE UP 5 BASIS POINTS TO 4.42%.

However...

07:57 TREASURY CONSIDERING BUYING BONDS WITH SURPLUS CASH: WSJ.

http://wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

HighRise

Brazil
Bovespa Index
^BVSP
8:44AM
6566
-215
-3.17%

HighRise

in Japan, eh...

panda
re: competetive devaluation
I dont think we are entering - we are already in.
It was harly noticed that since 1996 the USD surged vs the pre-euro currencies - and I mean all of them in a similar pattern which was too uniform to be a coincidence.

My opinion:
No poor euro. There is still downside potential without getting burned. ( USD is still about 10% over the value of fall 1996 ) .

In a brief statement austrias minister of finance ( who was head of the euro in 1998 ) noted that there wont be a decision what to do with the surplus-reserves of the various national ( euro-member- ) CBs before 2002.

http://www.magma.ca/~davef/

I've enjoyed the morning posts. Looks like gold may be down a tid today. Its looking to me like a lot of strength there however. DOW 10000 before gold $315? No way, Jose. The market will prevail. I'm in mouring over my Niners but then you have to have a full team without broken legs to win the superbowl.

i meant to comment on this over the weekend, but failed to do so. i think it is significant and the xau could extend further, it shows strength from oversold levels. usually a spurt like this tends to go a little further than normal and has a strong corrective wave attached to it. lets watch and find out.

If March T-bonds decline beneath the Nov. 6th low of 124-21 ( and they
have...currently 124-00 ) , then we should see prices decline eventually
to the next meaningful support which is 122-30. Folks, it appears to
be happening before our very eyes. Of course, be on the look out for intervention, as Gollum has mentioned!

Ouch

APH - back about Dec. 10th you speculated that silver might run to $7.50 - $8.00. Are still thinking that, and I was curious as to how you arrived at this. TIA . . .

Feb Gold @ 292.20 /// Mar Silver @ 5.260
Will this be a good UP week? I think the answer is.......maybe!
HA! Can't pin me down! Nosirreeeeee....

http://www.marketforum.com/

AgriBiz
http://www.agribiz.com/markets.html

Crash of 29
http://www.magma.ca/~davef/crash29.html

I just managed to get through to Q&A Asia - Subject matter YEN-EURO.

My question : "Wouldn't now be a good time to reexplore the benefits of a Gold Backed Currency mechanism in the face of fiat currency volatility ?"

Millions of Chinese gold lovers across the region would have heard me !
What fun.

The panelist's answer....wait for it, and I paraphrase...

"Asian Governments would have a hard time sticking to the disciplines it would entail" or words to that effect.

( Which "disciplines" could be interpreted as a positive perhaps; the panelist couldn't shoot the notion down out of the sky !! )

At least such questions get people thinking !

I enjoyed that.

: )

Brazil
Bovespa Index
^BVSP
9:38AM
6514
-267
-3.94%

HighRise

kitcoites on gold related matters, or in this case, gold related
replys! So Asian governments would have difficulty with discipline,
huh? What about all the other governments on this planet? I don't
think any of them have the necessary discipline when it comes to
monetary policy!!!

"Date: Mon Jan 11 1999 04:25

mozel ( @Irrationality ) ID#153110:

Copyright  1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Am I mistaken or are we in an era now when the predictive value of fundamentals has become unreliable? What I perceive is that across the board intervention and participation by governments in markets by regulatory and financial means is much more pervasive than is commonly admitted." ... "The possibility that markets are no longer free enough to behave like free markets is simply too awful to face.

And so the myth of an exhuberant bubble is substituted instead. A mania of human action is a kind of irrationality we can cope with. The kind of irrationality which government management of economies produces is not."

I'll tell you what I think, Mozel. That is deep down, we *know* that these institutions are run by people, and that people are not as yet perfect. And it is our innate understanding of the human condition that allows us to lend less-than-omnipotent status to our institutions. I guess it all depends on the time frame. Long term might be greater than my lifetime. Since ideas can live longer than humans, they are important to pay attention to.

You appear to be throwing in the towel, intimating that the power of the government to control the financial affairs of the world is complete. It may be, and your thought about denial is well asked. Are you merely becoming a realist?

Why is euro/$ weakening? Settlement problems. In a market which puts a premium on liquidity, the ability to quickly move around assets, technical problems ( in essence back office problems ) are causing traders to stay away from euro positions. After the European Central Bank announced at 9:20 AM measures associated with settlement problems, the euro weakened.

Good Day to All......some observations from the charts........
Mar Bonds fell thru their 200 day Moving Average this morning at 124.28. It would be normal to see them try to rally back up a little and test the breakdown at 124.28 sometime soon.

Silver 200 Day moving Average is right where it is at. $5.31 so it would be normal to pause here.

AU 200 day moving Average---Cash AU is $294.20 .......
So a pause today to reflect probably is in order. BUT the next few days make see a major change in these three markets as they decide what they are going to do.
CoBra

is the root of all evil that persists until all the days of reckoning arrive.

http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.pl?read=25+board=METAL

PS: SHORT CANDIDATES STANDING AS OF TODAY.

athm from 44 to 119
cnet from 40 to 70
psix from 15 to 24
ptvl from 13 to 23
vicl from 13 to 16

All of the right fundementals don't mean jack sh!t nowadays!

welcome to the new Era of Hedgeconomics.

http://www.ragingbull.com/

A good site to use when Kitco slows down or crashes.

Has anyone else noticed lately that the only time gold seems to go up is when the U.S$ goes up? Whats up with that?

: )

You said: "My source is from one of the largest investment houses in Europe - a good friend taking a holiday in South Africa."

Well that explains it. For financial house the Euro conversion is bigger than Y2K. For the rest of economy it is reversed - Y2K bigger than Euro.

The CBOE Volatility Index... VIX.X.......
This index is getting quite froggy in the last two hours, 25 day and 50 day moving average are at 25.33 and a downtrending line is about to be taken out if the index breaks much higher, BIG things may be about to happen.
CoBra

For your pleasure and entertainment, I present in the center ring...

The Phoenix!!

gold is going up now
stocks are going down now
all is well now
now

http://cgi.pathfinder.com/time/reports/millennium/end_world.html

DIW - Dave's Investment World
http://www.magma.ca/~davef/

Market Guide - Companies In The Gold & Silver
http://www.marketguide.com/mgi/INDUSTRY/gldslv.html

Here is a good site to watch the intraday progress of cash AU.....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif

Three convicts were on their way to prison. They were each allowed to
take one item with them to help them occupy their time while
incarcerated. On the bus, one turned to another and said, "So, what
did you bring?"
The second convict pulled out a box of paints and stated that he
intended to paint anything he could. He wanted to become the "Grandma
Moses of Jail".
Then he asked the first, "What did you bring?" The first convict
pulled out a deck of cards and grinned and said, "I brought cards. I
can play poker, solitaire and gin, and any number of games."
The third convict was sitting quietly aside, grinning to himself.
The other two took notice and asked, "Why are you so smug? What did
you bring?"
The guy pulled out a box of tampons and smiled. He said "I brought
these." the other two were puzzled and asked - "What can you do with
those?"
He grinned and pointed to the box and said - " Well according to the
box, I can go horseback riding, swimming, and roller-skating. . . . ."

In both ancient Greek and Egyptian mythology, the phoenix is a mythical bird and thought to be the servant of the sun god. It lives in Arabia, close to a cool well. Each morning at dawn, it would bathe in the water and sing such a beautiful song that the sun god stops his chariot to listen. There only exists one phoenix at a time. When it felt it's death approaching ( every 500 or 1461 ) years, it would build a nest and set it on fire, and was consumed by flames. When it was burned, a new phoenix sprang forth from the pyre. It then embalmed the ashes of it's predecessor in an egg of myrrh and flew with it to the City of the Sun. There it would deposit the egg on the altar of the sun god. In Egypt is was usually depicted as a heron, but in the classic literature as a peacock or an eagle. The phoenix symbolizes immortality, resurrection and life after death. In that aspect it was often placed on sarcophagi. It is associated with the Egyptian Benoe, the Garuda of the Hindus and the Chinese Feng.

Here's a better ring-side seat - for the european session...

http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/GD.htm

CHECK. IT. OUT.

I believe that we are witnessing a significant breakthrough. Oil and Gold shooting up, Dollar dropping like a rock against the Yen - $108.69 at this moment. Middle East heating up. I don't think that we will see a pause in Gold and Oil market ( at least not today, probably not this week ) .

On a monthy chart the resistance line drawn acrosss the tops ( 6/91, 8/93, 4/94, 5/95 just missed, 2/98 ) extends up to the $8 area over the next several months.

Claimstaker Resources ( CLN.V ) is shooting up like a rocket. This goldmining stock has been steadily progressing upwards in both volume and price for weeks. Could be one of those famous 10 baggers in the future. Keep you eyes on it!

I noticed that you seems to be interested in buying
Russian real estate or rubles...In case you are not
kidding, I can help you with both purchases...In regard
to rubles, this is quite simple - just straight forward
exchange...anyway, e-mail me bortep@shianet.org.

Here's some other good charts from that site.

Silver
http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/SI.htm

$-Euro
http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/koers/DEX.htm

From
http://www.aex-optiebeurs.nl/home.htm

SILVER

http://www.sharenet.co.za/free/spots.phtml

http://www.sharenet.co.za/webgraph_en.htm

All: Anyone know what is happening behind the scenes? Could be part of reason for US dollar and gold going up.

Also we need to watch Brazil very closely -- thanks, Donald!!

http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=56551

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - Federal regulators announced today they are fining 28 Wall Street brokerages more than $26 million for alleged price-rigging on the Nasdaq Stock Market, in an industrywide settlement closing a 5-year-old landmark case.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has been negotiating the settlement for months. The agreement involves many of Wall Street's biggest names - including PaineWebber Group Inc., J.P. Morgan & Co., Salomon Smith Barney Inc., Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., Lehman Brothers Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

In 1994 the SEC and the Justice Department alleged that major dealers on the electronic Nasdaq market conspired in a form of price-fixing that cost ordinary investors billions of dollars on their stock trades.

Under the settlement, the SEC also brought civil charges against 51 individual traders for the brokerages, temporarily suspending them from the securities business. The brokerages and the traders, who agreed to the sanctions, neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.

The brokerages with the most alleged violations agreed to pay higher fines. In addition to $26.3 million in civil fines, they also agreed to pay back alleged illegal profits totaling $791,525.

The settlement also requires the companies to improve their trading policies and procedures, SEC officials said.

``Thanks to effective leadership, today Nasdaq is stronger and better,'' SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt said in a statement. ``The sound reforms implemented over the past several years, and the commitment to strong oversight, greatly enhance investor protections and reaffirm confidence in the Nasdaq market.''

A year ago, investors who sued the Wall Street giants in a 1994 class action won $910 million from 30 firms in a settlement - the largest ever for such a civil antitrust suit.

Thanks for the offer, Oris. Could you give us a few thoughts on the current state of the Russian real estate market ? I'd appreciate anything you had to say about it. I've been guessing that prices are inexpensive, but I don't have anything to back it up. How are things in Russia right now ?

http://www.bday.co.za/99/0111/company/c5.htm

I have CLN.V along with Taseko Mines. Do you have any comments on TKOCF?

Janus wears two faces as he stands guard over the new born phoenix. With the birth, the falcon rests, it's task of air support over for the nonce, and the snake comes to the for.

That which was is no more, nothing is as before.

These are the times of lore, the times of legend, make no mistake.

The young fldgling moves fro it's nest three days hence.

BIS meet, says he expects a slight downturn in the US economy in
1999. I would say AG is being optimistic.

Reckon that any wobbles in EURO's smooth take-off ( whether for political, backoffice, or fundamental reasons ) will be Good for Gold.

ECB rationale for that ? Why exacerbate or amplify any little problems at this critical juncture when you don't have to ? At which later point, analysts will look at the gold-euro stability link, isolate it as a single factor and figure that to continue to hold gold would make a lot of sense.

Silver - look at last year's Jan-Feb 5.6 up through 7.1+ spike. Expect a repeat this year ! Looks like my March options might come home to daddy at this rate ! Now we're cooking with gas ! There is a god.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990111/w3.html

25 cent call on gold

GSA rreports glamis-viceroy-miramar may be interested predicts 100 percent probalbility of takeover

See you got your strength back...wish I could watch but have to work. Fly, baby, fly! Thanks for the humor.

Tom

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990111_xex_bad_news_pow.shtml

With over a million hits a day this message is getting out.
What's he trying to do start a panic?

Sheesh.^o-o^

Up 3% so far,looking good.

I don't know anything about TKOCF. CLN.V, however, seems to have flown since I bought it about 6 months ago at $.27 Canadian. Perhaps the juniors are starting to get some attention from the gold funds. Let's hope so. I expect to hold CLN for the long term, perhaps three or four years, and then, with luck, it should be worth a couple of bucks American. They are a bunch of rock hounds who are getting financial backing from a Japanese investment group. Several of their properties have strong potential, especially the one in the middle of the Battle Mountain region.

Claimstaker looks rather expensive for what they have...market cap is already reaching a fully diluted $18 millions.. Blackdome has very little ounces left in the ground ? Do you know anything about possible expansion of the reserves over there.

Much is said about the need of good men, men of sound opinions, standing together; little which attempts to deal with the details of the "HOW" "WHY" "WHEN" and "WHERE" of that standing together.

The number of those to be rewarded for unselfish endeavor is a " vast multitude whom no man can number".

In all great contests the men who were the burden bearers at the beginning have not been the ones to gather the harvest of spoils in the day of victory.

Departed vision sees no polished granite rise.

For the brave men who have struggled against the forces of wrong and been overwhelmed by them --- for the silent, patriotic, loyal worker, unnoticed and unremembered, is there no reward ?

THE FEDERAL RESERVE
by Thomas D. Schauf
[Part 1 of 3]

Acknowledgements:

Our country likes to thank our forefathers for the Constitution.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK IS A PRIVATE COMPANY.

The FED began with approximately 300 people or banks that became owners stockholders purchasing stock at $100 per share - the stock is not publicly traded ) in the Federal Reserve Banking System.

They make up an international banking cartel of wealth beyond comparison ( Reference 1, 14 ) . The FED banking system collects billions of dollars ( Reference 8, 17 ) in interest annually and distributes the profits to its shareholders.

The Congress illegally gave the FED the right to print money ( through the Treasury ) at no interest to the FED.

The FED creates money from nothing, and loans it back to us through banks, and charges interest on our currency.

THE FED FEARS THE POPULATION WILL BECOME AWARE OF THIS FRAUD AND DEMAND
CHANGE.

We, the People, are at fault for being passive and allowing this to continue.

Rep. Louis T. McFadden ( R. Pa. ) rose from office boy to become cashier and then President of the First National Bank in Canton Ohio.

For 12 years he served as Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency, making him one of the foremost financial authorities in America.

He fought continuously for fiscal integrity and a return to constitutional government ( Reference 1 ) . The following are portions of Rep. McFadden's speech, quoted from the Congressional Record, pages 12595-12603:

About the Federal Reserve banks, Rep. McFadden said, "They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; the rich and predatory money lenders.

This is an era of economic misery and for the reasons that caused that misery, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks are fully liable."

AMERICA DECEIVED

By law ( check the Congressional record ) , we can buy back the FED for the original investment of the FED's 300 shareholders, which is $450 million ( Reference 1, P. 227, Reference 17, P. 36 ) .

If each taxpayer paid $25, we could buy back the FED and all the profit would flow into the U.S. Treasury.

In 1992, taxpayers paid the FED banking system $286 billion in interest on debt the FED purchased by printing money virtually cost free ( Reference 12, P. 265 ) . Forty percent of our personal federal income taxes goes to pay this interest.

The FED's books are not open to the public. Congress has yet to audit it.
http://www.cal-neva.com/money/frbsol1a.htm

it seems vengf is sliding the wrong way in 99 is PDG selling shares
vengf has some big markers coming due in 99

Course if you need a taxi in Singapore, you may have to negotiate with that cabbie cause the meter chips went dead....end of civilization as we know it I think.....

Monday January 11, 1:20 pm Eastern Time

CORRECTED - Y2K bug will begin with a whimper, not a
bang

In NEW YORK story headlined ``Y2K bug will begin with a whimper, not a bang'', please read
date as Jan 11 instead of Jan 5 as sent.

Corrected version follows:

By Andrew Hay

NEW YORK, Jan 11 ( Reuters ) - If the dreaded Year 2000 computer bug has the power to choke computer systems and wreak havoc,
it will slowly show it means business in the weeks and months ahead, experts say.

As computers and machines grapple with more and more dates that spill into the year 2000, the experts say problems could appear
through multiple small errors that -- when combined -- could cause failures.

One symptom of widespread failure would be a slow, subtle slowdown in companies and organizations, Bob Cohen, an analyst with
the Information Technology Association of America said.

``If it's going to happen, we're probably in the zone right now,'' Cohen said.

But so far, there are no signs of such failures, he said. Fears that the millennium bug would bring computer chaos in the first weeks
of 1999 are so far mostly unfounded -- an outcome that has raised existing optimism that systems will handle the Year 2000 date
change without major disruptions.

Signs of future problems did, however, appear at scattered points across the globe.

- In Hong Kong, the Marine Department's computer information system, which tracks vessels in and out of the city's harbor, crashed
on Dec. 31, according to the South China Morning Post.

- The millennium bug hit police offices at airports in Sweden that issue temporary passports, Australia's Sunday Telegraph reported.

- In Singapore, computerized meters on about 300 taxis went dead at noon on Jan. 1 for about two hours, London's Sunday Times
reported.

The greatest potential for problems comes from the once-common practice of using only two digits to refer to the year in dates like
``99'' instead of ``1999.'' The shortcut has the potential to confuse computers and machines that will read ``00'' as ``1900'' instead of
``2000'' as the year arrives.

There are other dates in 1999 that could also trigger computer problems.

- As in the case of the Swedish passport offices, glitches may also crop up with the number ``99.'' Their computers malfunctioned at
the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31. The malfunction occurred as computers failed to read the date ``1999'' and instead read it as
``99'', a code to mean ``end of run'' or ``end of file'' in some programs.

The date Sept. 9, 1999 could fool many computer programs into thinking the date is an entry of 9999 -- shorthand for end of file or
date unknown. The date could see data deleted or programs crashing.

- The rollover to ``0'' this summer on the calendars used in satellites which form the Global Positioning System ( GPS ) could cause
problems. Receivers of GPS information might not be able to correlate geographical location and time correctly as of August, and
industries, military systems and others using them could be disrupted.

A recent survey by research company Cap Gemini America shows a majority of the United State's largest corporations have already
experienced Year 2000-related failures and nearly all expect more in 1999.

``You'll see for the first time some highly visible failures that companies are not able to keep quiet,'' said Steven Hock, chief
executive of research firm Triaxsys Research LLC.

What remains to be seen is if these failures can create a cascade of errors that together could shut down systems.

While Cohen is upbeat this will not occur, he says the ultimate test for most computers will be their ability to recognize the new year
when it rolls round 51 weeks from now.

``The proof will be in the pudding, and the pudding date will be the Jan. 1 weekend.''

Well, I took the day off to work in the shop and to make an order of silver casting grain to replenish what I used last week. So who do I find at my computer this morning but Murphy himself running up the price of silver. I think this may be the year to sell my SSC if its volume hits 20 million one day.



For those who missed it here is the current silver "investment" casting Im sorking to clean up. Not for sale of course, just shown to demonstrate what silver has been used for the 10,000 years before they discovered batteries, superconductors and photo film!

Silver making a nice pop and that dog SSC just sits there at 9/16!

Meanwhile Paasf, and SSRIF both moving up nicely. Beauty of diversification. I don't own any PAASF ( don't like the inherent geo-political / economic risks of the Russkie Dukat project ) .

But glad that I went into SSRIF around it's lows. It's done very well the past 3 trading days.

Let's give SSC a flea bath and hope for the best!

( Ahhh but the bullion.... those beautiful Mercury dime bags...the Walking Liberty Half rolls....ahhhhh...they sooth me to sleep at night.... )

Hm, I wanted to sell last spring but those charlatans in Warshington DeeCee changed the tax laws so I missed the opportunity by 3 months. This year remains to be seen. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=5y

Euro getting weaker and weaker

Goldman Sachs co-CEO steps down

William Rees-Mogg excerpt...

In the past week I had been wrestling with
this problem of compassion in its most
extreme form. I was thinking partly about
Clinton, about his psychological emptiness,
about his traumatic childhood with the
devoted but dysfunctional mother and an
alcoholic stepfather. I happened also to be
reading the opening chapters of Ian
Kershaw's fascinating new life of Hitler.
They discussed Hitler's childhood and the
origins of his megalomaniac fantasies.

Adolf Hitler was the only surviving son of a
devoted mother and an abusive and
heavy-drinking father, who was 23 years
older than his wife. Four of their children
died in childhood; a sister, Paula, lived until
1960. She and the family doctor, Eduard
Bloch, who was Jewish, are the main
authorities for Hitler's early childhood. After
the war, Paula, who never exploited her
position as sister of the Fhrer, spoke of her
mother as "a very soft and tender person ... it
was especially my brother Adolf who
challenged my father to extreme harshness
and who got his sound thrashing every day".
Hitler himself said that his beloved mother
lived in constant concern about the beatings.

Hitler's father died when he was 13, his
mother four years later. Both Paula and Dr
Bloch testify to Hitler's "indefatigable" care
for his mother when she was dying of breast
cancer. After his father's death, Hitler
dropped out of school and lived a hippy-like
life of fantasy in Vienna. When one reads Ian
Kershaw's account, one cannot avoid feeling
compassion for the sufferings of this
abnormal but gifted boy, as well as being
aware of the terrible consequences of his
fantasies.

my brother Oris ..
Glad to see you back .. I would like
rent a country villa in winter
wonderland area with Natasha and
some vodka like Dr Zhivago ..
if gold goes up ..
who should I talk to ??

http://www.ustreas.gov/fincen/strtpl97.pdf

This file is a PDF file and you will need to have Acrobat Reader to view it.


LGB
I was in at the Gov't SS Dept today and will processing my file the system went down.
The guy tapped away at the keyboard for 15 minutes before giving up.
He then rang head office and was told that the entire system had gone down.

ATM's are glitching all over the place and some accounting programs are turning into nightmares.

I am on quite a few Y2k forums and there is an endless sucsession of reports of systems being bugged out and going down.
Not a lot of them get into the news but believe me there are plenty happening.
Some minor - some major.

From what I've heard the peak of the Jo Anna effect should be in the third week of the year so it's still on the rise.

Most of the hickups come across as minor unless they affect you personally.

April should be an interesting month.

http://interactive.wsj.com/archive/retrieve.cgi?id=SB916011336419051000.djm

The world financial crisis, I've heard, has taken 1/3 of the world economy down and caused deflation of prices in real estate, currencies, commodities, etc, around the globe. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, asset prices in the United States are soaring high, probably going higher. The window of opportunity will go away at some point, but I honestly think this is the time when "the world is at a discount" for the US investor. Right now is the time to be purchasing cheap things abroad instead of expensive things in the states. The dollar is getting weaker against the Yen, but it's still very strong in the world, could get stronger. Order of the day, in my opinion, is still SELL DOLLARS before the world economic situation turns around. When Asia went down the tubes the Indonesian Rupiah went from about 3000 per $US up to 14000 per $US, and is now back down to about 8000. The Yen, as we all know went into the 140's before continuing it's trend down into the 100's. The Ruble was trading at about 6 to the $US, now it's spiked up to around 23 per $US, will it come back as well ? I dunno, but I'm going to chance it. The world is on sale, might have to wait a few years before it turns around in relation to the $US, but it's definitely a bargain and getting better all the time. If we're cashing out of the US stock and bond markets, might be time to start thinking about that vacation home overseas. If we want to buy the US, it'll probably be on sale later, but who knows when that'll be. I don't know if I want to hoard dollars until then. If the US follows the rest of the world he dollars in our pockets are likely to become even more valuable, despite what Greenspan does with the "M". That's happening in Japan right now as the government hands out Yen and they go straight into someone's savings account, or into overseas markets. The Yen is going up, getting stronger and stronger over the long term. Will the dollar do the same ? I dunno, but I know I like fire sales. Gold and silver are awesome bargains, might become even better bargains before it's all said and done. If the deflation trend continues and/or accelerates dollars will be increasingly difficult to find and will no doubt gain value into the future until they peak out at some point and prices start going back up. Until prices turn around, however, it's a game of chicken, holding increasingly strong dollars in the hopes that prices will drop even further, but wanting to be out of the dollar before things turn around. That's what I think anyway.

NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE

This kind of picture has to be good to Gold.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/bonds.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

One of the big owners of this stock surfaced in SEC filings today. For those who like to keep up with such things.

http://www.freeedgar.com/search/WL.asp?C=833376&F=SC_13G&D=1/11/1999

The VIX.X index, The CBOE volatility index has rose to over 28 in the last 30 minutes, this is up over 4% on the day. Markets are getting extremly skittish. I had mentioned the 50 day average was breached this morning at 25.33 at 10:30 AM.
CoBra

http://www.Duh-2000.com/

:- )

for the y2k addicts out there ( might have been posted b4, i dunno )

It would indeed be a brave man who would challenge the "Status Quo" ?

Remember what happpened to the late J Kennedy.

Momentum is a reality in life......I think the US$ is past the point of no return - check it out......

http://www.europa.com/~blugene/deficit/debt.html


....tick, tock............

Haggis

All: Is this the tip of the iceberg -- financial coverups, corruption?

-------

EU Parliament wants to sack commission

Monday, 11 January 1999 15:59 ( GMT )

( UPI Focus )

EU Parliament wants to sack commission

STRASBOURG, France, Jan. 11 ( UPI ) - European Commission President

Jacques Santer is trying to persuade the European Parliament to

reconsider a scheduled censure motion that would effectively dump all 20

European Commissioners.

At issue are the mounting charges of corruption, financial

mismanagement and cronyism - particularly on the part of the French and

Spanish commissioners - that have the European Parliament locked in

heated pre-vote debate over the scandal.

Members of parliament have already demanded that key individual

commissioners acknowledge the corruption problems within their own

departments and resign.

The commission runs EU policy day to day and with an official censure

vote set for Thursday, the stakes are high.

The push for censure was triggered after parliament voted last month

against signing off the EU's 1996 accounts.

That vote effectively questioned the Commission's financial

competence amid broadening mismanagement and fraud allegations in EU

programs.

All 20 commissioners will sit before parliament in a pre-vote debate

in Strasbourg tonight, after rushing from meeting the German government

in Bonn.

Spanish Commission Vice-President Manuel Marin, and his French

colleague, Edith Cresson, who is charge of EU research funding, have

been singled out in the scandal.

Among the charges being leveled against the EC officials are

allegations that millions of dollars in humanitarian aid were assigned

to nonexistent projects.

There are also charges that commission members directed financial

favors toward friends and that financial records were destroyed.

The entire commission is at risk because the European Parliament has

only the power to sack the entire commission - not individual

commissioners.

At this time, Parliamentary leaders are asking Santer to force Marin

and Cresson to resign.

But Santer admits only that management of the EU'sc executive body is

flawed, and has resisted calls to force individuals to go.

--

Copyright 1999 by United Press International

All rights reserved

-------------

First Quest Ventures, then Glamis Gold, now Viceroy Resource. "Viceroy and Rayrock Agrree to plan of Arrangement". How much cash does Rayrock have? Anyone!
http://www.viceroyresource.com/news-releases/1999/011199.htm>http://www.viceroyresource.com/news-releases/1999/011199.htm
If it doesn't work, try http://www.viceroyresource.com and go to news releases.

....in particular the "short" selling of GOLD.....

"A mask of gold hides all deformities." - ~ Thomas Dekker ~

Aye,

Haggis

subscription to Desario's Marketprojections. I was really enjoying
the trial subscription we had. At this time, the cost to subscribe
to his E-Wave analysis is a little more than I'm willing to pay.
How about you?

News Release

January 11, 1999

PAN AMERICAN SILVER RECEIVES POSITIVE
SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY ON DUKAT DEPOSIT, RUSSIA

Vancouver, British Columbia..Pan American Silver Corp. ( TSE: PAA; NASDAQ: PAASF ) has received a positive supplemental bankable feasibility study on renewed production from the large Dukat silver deposit, far eastern Russia.

The study was prepared for ZAO Serebro Dukat, Pan American's 70% owned
Russian subsidiary, by Kilborn Engineering Pacific Ltd., a division of
SNC-Lavalin, Canada's largest engineering-construction firm. The
supplemental study follows an initial feasibility study completed in
August. All monetary amounts are in US dollars.

The study models mining and processing from the existing mine and mill
facilities at Dukat at an initial rate of 380,000 tonnes in 2000 increasing to a sustained rate of 750,000 tonnes per year by the end of 2001. Metal production, in the form of silver concentrate exported to overseas smelters, would average 15.8 million ounces of silver and 30,500 ounces of gold per year. The existing diluted recoverable proven and probable reserves of 10.55 million tonnes grading 755 grams of silver per tonne ( 238 million ounces of recovered silver ) and 1.54 grams of gold per tonne will sustain a minimum 15 year mine life. These reserves are slightly higher in tonnage and 12% higher in grade than the earlier feasibility study due to a different mining method and an increase in the minimum economic grade. Additional silver resources exist at Dukat, but require further development or higher metal prices to be defined as reserves.

The project's financial model, based on a 100% equity-financed project,
indicates an after-tax rate of return of 22.5% and an undiscounted net present value of $213 million at $5.00 per ounce of silver and $300 per ounce gold.

This is a significant improvement from the 10.7% rate of return shown in the August feasibility study, which used a $5.50 per ounce silver price.

Total projected capital costs over the period 1999-2001 are $89.0 million, including $9.0 million for working capital and $9.9 million in contingency allowances. Additional sustaining capital costs to the year 2014 are projected at $42.3 million. These costs are much lower than the $212 million capital cost projected in the August feasibility study due primarily to the use of the existing mill, a revised mine plan, elimination of the cyanide leach and silver dor circuit, reduced foreign-sourced equipment and labour, and reduced VAT and
duties. The average operating cost per ounce of silver produced, net of gold by-product credits, is $1.51 and the average total production cost per ounce is $3.54 ( including taxes, royalties, DD&A and administration costs ) . The financial model assumes payment of all existing Russian taxes and royalties, totalling $358.8 million over 15 years.

Expenditures at Dukat will be limited until project financing is secured. Bank financing for approximately $62 million is now being discussed with potential lenders, leaving about $19 million to be equity-financed by Pan American and $8 million to be equity-financed by the project's 30% partner, Geometall Plus ( controlled by Western Pinnacle Mining Ltd. ) . A multilateral lender will commence a technical and environmental due diligence review at site in late January. Permit applications for renewed operation have been submitted to Russian authorities. The environmental impact study and detailed tailings and geotechnical studies have been completed for submission. Subject to project financing, construction is targeted to commence in May 1999 with initial mill commissioning in late 1999.

Development of the Dukat silver mine and the 100% owned La Colorada silver mine in Mexico will increase Pan American's attributable silver production from 3 million ounces in 1998 to over 19 million ounces in 2001, making Pan American one of the world's leading and most leveraged silver producers. Further information on the Company can be accessed at www.panamericansilver.com.

- End -


Ross J. Beaty, Chairman or Rosie Moore, VP Corporate Relations 604-684-1175

The statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements
involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results to vary materially from the targeted results. Such risks and
uncertainties include those described in the Company's Form 40-F as amended.

http://www.panamericansilver.com

But it made 16 cents last year, so that's realistic, or was it
12 cents per share? We wouldn't want to make a mistake here
because that might really throw out the PE ratio.

I never did subscribe to Peter Desario's Elliott Wave service. In fact, I have recently mostly abandoned my interest in Elliott Waves as a predictive method.......Rigged markets, you know.

Not that it doesn't work ( sometimes ) , but just that it doesn't work reliably engough FOR ME to be useful. It is sort of a coincidence that you asked, since just this morning I cancelled my subscription to Prechter's newsletter after taking for several years.

Checkout the nice H&S pattern on the monthly XAU chart on quote.com....it has a 15 month+ pattern with the neckline at 87-90....IMHO, this will complete the bottoming in the precious metals and start the long awaited up move in gold...what a fitting end to the stock market blowoff, with a massive move in the metals....oh, by the way yahoo was up over 70 points today ( 20%+ ) ...in one day...not bad for a company that doesn't make any money....or maybe you like Amazon.com...now at $560/shr ( pre-split ) , another nice move for a company that doesn't make a profit!! Don't mind me...just sour grapes......

I've, likewise, been tempted to drop my subscription to the EWT
short term update. I've used it recently to get in on the T-Bond
ride down, but I also took it's advise recently and missed out on
the great Silver ride up! I'm long Gold because I always want to be.
I knew there was a risk of Gold sinking back down to 280ish, and was
willing to ride it down to that level if it happened. Well, so far,
we're looking promising with Gold. So far, we're looking promising
for Silver ( I'll get in if it comes back down to 5.15 to 5.20 area ) .
So, I guess I'm 50/50 on keeping the subscription. It's probably
worth reading ( with a grain of salt, of course ) , but I'm still going
to watch and read a variety of other sources ( mostly from here ) to
get a feel on future directions of the PM's, T-Bonds, S&P, etc...

COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Jan. 8

-- TOTALS
Gold 809,210 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 76,900,113 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 97,808 + 1,586 short tons

Hot mony, cold money. There is a tide in the affairs of men. Sometimes the tide comes in, and sometimes the tide goes out. It appears the the tide of the high yen/dollar has turned. During the days of the hot money hurricane we saw that interventions to support a currency are of little other than short turn avail.

The BOJ is now threatening to intervene in support of the dollar versus the yen. If they do, I suspect interventions will bring dips in the precious metals, and perhaps their equities. Be prepared to buy the dips ( how refreshing to say this to long suffering goldbugs ) .

Just as the high dollar hot money hurricane fueled the decline of commodities and the stock market "bubble", so the reverse in tide will put things back.

Money is leaving the bond markets already, Korea has been turning in economic gains these last few months, and the CRB spot index looks to have turned.

Janus looks both ways. Looking back we see the fall in gold and the death of the Phoenix, but now the Phoenix is reborn and looking forward into the year of darkness we see that it is not entirely dark but rather aglow with gold and silver tones.

VENGF closed at 21/32 today UP 1/16 or 10.53%! Who's sellin'? you ask. I ask, "Who's buyin'?" Answer: I AM! VENGF is the steal of steals at these prices. Thanks to all the tax-loss sellers, I now own three times more this year than last at an average cost of 75 centavos! Just wait till gold hits $325! PDG will be forced to bid a whole lot higher than 75 cents if'nthey can get guys like me to tender! Heh..heh..heh!

PS--How's about that XAU up 2.00 to 74.95? On the road to 100-115 by Feb. 10!! The GOLD BULL has begun.

VENGF closed at 21/32 today UP 1/16 or 10.53%! Who's sellin'? you ask. I ask, "Who's buyin'?" Answer: I AM! VENGF is the steal of steals at these prices. Thanks to all the tax-loss sellers, I now own three times more this year than last at an average cost of 75 centavos! Just wait till gold hits $325! PDG will be forced to bid a whole lot higher than 75 cents if'nthey can get guys like me to tender! Heh..heh..heh!

PS--How's about that XAU up 2.00 to 74.95? On the road to 100-115 by Feb. 10!! As I said late last week, the GOLD BULL has begun.

VENGF closed at 21/32 today UP 1/16 or 10.53%! Who's sellin'? you ask. I ask, "Who's buyin'?" Answer: I AM! VENGF is the steal of steals at these prices. Thanks to all the tax-loss sellers, I now own three times more this year than last at an average cost of 75 centavos! Just wait till gold hits $325! PDG will be forced to bid a whole lot higher than 75 cents if'n they can get guys like me to tender! Heh..heh..heh!

PS--How's about that XAU up 2.00 to 74.95? On the road to 100-115 by Feb. 10!! As I said late last week, the GOLD BULL has begun. Wiedersehen!

All: Sorry -- forgot time of post. Just noticed that the Swiss Frank is going down, with gold and dollar up. This is just what one would expect if there was a European currency crisis about to emerge. Interesting -- and I thought we should be watching Brazil!

Anyone have any info on what is happening? Sounds pretty big if these 20 commisioners who are about to be fired are the keepers of the fledgling EURO. What I don't understand is the timing. Would have expected a honey moon period of some kind with the EURO before trouble.

If my suspicions are accurate, something really big is about to surface in Europe.

Can anyone dig up anything else? Could be we are about to repeat the events of 1993 when gold equities doubled in a few months -- also due to a European currency crisis. We must be very careful, however, and figure out what kind of crisis is brewing. A gold up crisis -- or a gold down crisis?

VENGF closed at 21/32 today UP 1/16 or 10.53%! Who's sellin'? you ask. I ask, "Who's buyin'?" Answer: I AM! VENGF is the steal of steals at these prices. Thanks to all the tax-loss sellers, I now own three times more this year than last at an average cost of 75 centavos! Just wait till gold hits $350-$400! PDG will be forced to bid a whole lot higher than 75 cents if'n they can get guys like me to tender! Heh..heh..heh!

PS--How's about that XAU up 2.00 to 74.95? On the road to 100-115 by Feb. 10!! As I said late last week, the GOLD BULL has begun. Wiedersehen!

analysis to predict the future of POG. Both sources use the
E wave to predict a short term high of 325 before gold descends
to $140 per oz in 2001-2. I e-mailed Steve Kaplan about this,
and he was fairly negative in his comments, which went something
like, "If Mr. Elliot knew what people were publishing in the
name of his wave, he would not only roll over in his grave, but
march right out of the graveyard and preditatedly murder his
so-called disciples."

So much for E waves. Some people do use them, and they do
influence trade, but do they operate in markets so grossly
manipulated as gold's?

Goldman's Corzine Quits as CEO Amid IPO Delay, Losses
http://www.news.com/Investor/NewsItem/0,213,0~0~~~~INI~363880100~~~~,00.html
Goldman, under Corzine, made many of the same bets as Long-Term Capital, said executives in
the firm.

Strasbourg's 'nuclear option'
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_252000/252649.stm
In Belgium and France, police are pressing ahead with fraud investigations into other EU programmes. A commission employee turned whistleblower believes it is the tip of an iceberg.

Senior Russian central bank official steps down
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_252000/252686.stm
The central bank has also announced that its reserves of gold and hard currency fell by just over thirty-one percent last year from seventeen-point-eight billion dollars to twelve-point-two-billion dollars.

CNBC's Trash Master, Heraldo Ravera, TO CARRY LARRY FLYNT LIVE 9 PM ET

Clinton's attorney also represents "The Enquirer" no connection of course.

HighRise

http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story900.html

Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.84. The 233 day moving average is 29.68

XAU/Spot Ratio = .256. the 233 day moving average is .247

Can astrologers REALLY prognosticate these things? Mike? Anybody?

; )

From the U.S. News & World Report

Washington Whispers

"Star Power"

As if Iraqi games of chicken with U.S. fighters aren't enough, the Pentagon now has another problem on its hands. Joan Quigley--who gained fame as astrologer to Ronald and Nancy Reagan--is predicting "a disastrous germ warfare attack" on the United States by Iraq and Iran. Quigley warns that "according to my astrological charts, biological weapons could be used to impact the East Coast of North America sometime between August of 1999 and June the following year." How will the
Pentagon fight back? "We're asking for additional money from the Congress to change the alignment of the stars," deadpans one official.

On Monday, January 4, 1999a typical data-day.

CNY XPT-XAU = 641.640
CNY $ DIFF = $77.510
CNY XAU/XPT = 0.787673
CNY XAG/XAU = 0.017183
CNY XAG/XPT = 0.013534

DEM XPT - XAU = 128.316
DEM $ DIFF = $77.503
DEM XAU/XPT = 0.787672
DEM XAG/XAU = 0.017183
DEM XAG/XPT = 0.013534

USD XPT - XAU = 77.500
USD = $77.500
USD XAU/XPT = 0.787671
USD XAG/XAU = 0.017183
USD XAG/XPT = 0.013534

XEU XPT-XAU = 65.661
XEU $ DIFF = $77.533
XEU XAU/XPT = 0.787672
XEU XAG/XAU = 0.017183
XEU XAG/XPT = 0.013534

JPY XPT-XAU = 8797.800
JPY $ DIFF = $77.500
JPY XAU/XPT = 0.787671
JPY XAG/XAU = 0.017183
JPY XAG/XPT = 0.013534

SDR XPT-XAU = 54.717
SDR $ DIFF = $77.000
SDR XAU/XPT = 0.788087
SDR XAG/XAU = 0.017207
SDR XAG/XPT = 0.013560

XAG:XAU was 0.017210
XAG:XPT was 0.013630
For months the monitored fiats have marched in tight formation. Squad SDR is oft a little out-of-step, but it is simply 'adjusted' and the Long March continues.

Of all the central banks, the BOJ has been the MOST meticulous in maintaining the yen's conformance to the agreed upon 'norm'.

Well.several things happened over this past weekend.

( 1 ) The dollar gold quote is without a reciprocal. One is at a loss to assign a profound meaning to this anomaly, but one feels certain it should be noted!

Sunday, January 10, 1999

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 291.75 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.00 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )

Median price was 291.00 / 291.75 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 291.00 / 291.75
Maximum price was 291.00 / 291.75
Computed from a sample of 1 price on Sunday, January 10, 1999

Classic 164 Currency Converter  1997-1998 by OANDA, Inc.

[downloaded for third time at 10:51 Pacific , 1/11/99, just to 'doublecheck'!

How can the POG in $ NOT have a reciprocal?

( 2 ) The JPY XPT-XAU HAS GONE BONKERS!!!!!

As mentioned, the BOJ has been the most meticulous of the CBs. And only the SDR has been more than a full dollar off the XPT-XAU paradigm, and then only once-for only 24 hours-and only six dollars.

Imagine the shock of seeing the JPY off seven dollars. For two days running.

Here's how it looks as of Sunday, January 10, 1999:
CNY XPT-XAU = 580.820
CNY $ DIFF = $70.163

DEM XPT-XAU = 118.615
DEM $ DIFF = $70.149

USD XPT-XAU = $70.150

EUR XPT-XAU = 60.647
EUR $ DIFF = $70.187

JPY XPT - XAU = 7744.600
JPY $ DIFF = $77.446

[No SDR quotes available on weekends...or during the week sometimes!]

So, the JPY is out-of-step
And the USD POG has no reciprocal

http://www.herald.com:80/americas/digdocs/024022.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990111/bap.html

Thanks...I don't know for sure what all that means but I do know I have been waiting for the fiats to go separate ways. How does it look with the rest of the metals?

Tom

They are proposing a 2nd reverse split and have questionable mgn't.

when your buying those high priced internet stocks. Even if you are a big time fund manager with lots of 401k and year end bonus money coming in.

http://www.marketgauge.com/charts/CMFCASH.GIF

So when the funds have no dry powder left, who will hold the market up?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990111/7e.html

calls for AG to use Gold and other commodity prices as benchmark to set monetary policy. Article recently posted on Reuters calling for an end to commodity price deflation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990111/bbn.html

"Dayton Reaches Agreement with Lender"_____, this company was as high as $10 Can in late 1997, today it closed at 0.40 cents. Production is reported to be up.
If this quarter were....by chance....profitable, I would buy.
They may be producing over 120,000 this year, based on this past quarter's production. If things go well for them it will be a big plus for McWatters Mining who should produce 220,000 plus ounces at its Canada Mines and who closed in Montreal at 0.79 cents. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990111/bw1223_2.html

It must be a mistake...gold up 2.20!!! http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/index.htm

Read posts on vronsky's forum at 12:35, 12:56, 13:32 today regarding European Central Bank Accumulation of Gold. This is VERRRRRY Interesting! ( I would cut and paste but can't do it from this system )

GSA ( december 98 ) shows glamis with $30 million before deal, with deal they would have had $80 million so i suppose rayrock has $50 million.

GSA reports Glamis interested in CAU, can buy for $20 million, canyons briggs mine near Glamis's Rand mine.
glamis mines have existing 5 year life. Can even get a chunk of Mcdonald after refereendum is overturned in montana. ( Mcdonald largest economic yet undeveloped gold deposit in US )

SDRer: What do you think about Jacques Santer's desperate call to prevent a censure motion by the European Parliament? Apparently this is now being called 'Strasbourg's Nuclear Option'!

Comments? Major crisis, or minor crisis?

Delphi ?

Cheese
My vengf is locked in IRA and I'll have to keep. I was considering buying more but am wondering where are they going to come up $87 million due at the end of 99 unless watering shares.

GSA ( jan 99 ) reporting 100% probability of deal this year, possible PDG or BMG. Shows possible takeover price of $2.35 ( 173 million shares out )

PDG and Battle mountain have been on buying spree and one has to wonder how much $$$ they have to make another aquisition

about the European Central Banks and the amount of Gold they have acquired! If this works, you can click here to go straight to the forum.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/cgi-bin/gn/get/forum.html?date=1999%3A01%3A11%3A07%3A00%3A00

: )

Here's one of the quotes from Gold**en** Eagle

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990108/world_gold_1.html

Gold holdings by Euro banks INCREASED last year while rumors flew about how much they were selling.

Local bourses still jittery on rumors of resignations

Local stock markets continued jittery today, though there were no new facts over the
weekend to support such gloom. Nevertheless, rumors that Finance minister, Pedro
Malan, and Central Bank's president, Gustavo Freire, were about to resign, in
addition to worries that Brazil might have to alter its foreign exchange regime,
pervaded local markets, whose participants are increasingly convinced that President
Fernando Henrique Cardoso will sooner or later have to take steps to stop the capital
hemorrhage, which is currently at a daily average of US$200m

The So Paulo stock exchange index ( Ibovespa ) finished lower by 5.56% at 6,403
points ( Ibovespa/US$ finished down 5.61% at 1,922 points ) . Trading volume totaled
US$199.960m, with 22.179 billion shares having changed hands. The Rio de Janeiro
Stock Exchange Index ( IBV-RJ ) closed lower by 5.62% at 21,969 points ( IBV/US$
closed down 5.65% at 6,597 points ) . Among the blue chips, Telebrs Receipts
( RCTBR ) ended down 5.25%. Eletrobrs finished lower by 6.11%. Petrobras
PN/US$ also down 6.30%. Usiminas lower by 8.24%. CSN up 4.71%.

At the Futures and Commodities Exchange ( BM&F ) , dollar futures contracts
closed out as follows: February, higher by 0.01% at R$ 1.22200; March, up 0.04%
at R$1.23845. The floating dollar ended higher by 0.07% at R$1.2123 offering a
premium of 0.12%, and the black market dollar finished up 0.39% at R$ 1.275,
representing a premium of 5.29%.

Brazil's Central Bank announced it counducted its second inner-band adjustment of
the month of 0.08%, allowing the real to range between R$ 1.1975 and R$ 1.2115.

The commercial dollar Ptax ended at R$ 1.2109/R$1.2101 from R$
1.2100/R$1.2098 last Friday.
http://www.agestado.com/bfw/bfwire/brmarket/jan99/bm110199/bm-0003.htm

So Paulo, 11 - The So Paulo stock exchange ( Bovespa ) president, Alfredo
Rizkallah, told reporters this morning that capital flight, which has begun to increase
last December, got worse in the first week of January after Minas Gerais governor,
Itamar Franco, decided to call for a moratorium on Federal debt payments.

For Rizkallah, any "inappropriate" declaration at this point in time may end up
upsetting investments. According to him, Franco's attitude goes against any Minas
Gerais political, traditional, and historical procedures, which normally is that of
harmonizing domestic disputes.

Rizkallah also defended Brazil's government program of fiscal and welfare reforms, in
which success is seen as an essential condition to reduce interest rates and boost
economy. ( By Gecy Belmonte )

Things are not good... In general, you are right that
it's a good time to buy Russian stuff, although it's
kind of risky unless you know who are you dealing with...
Of course, stuff means merchandize, not any kind of paper...

The money will come from the issuance of new shares, BUT, don't forget what they're getting for the shares--19.8% of LIHIR!!! 120,000 ozs. of gold this year and more when the expansion project is completed! PLUS I expect gold to be trading well over $400/oz by the end of 1999! IMHO it's a no brainer!! VENGF will not only be a survivor--it will GROW and THRIVE once the gold price takes off!

Sorry if these have been posted heretofore:



The plan for massive military mobilization:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990106_xex_the_plan_mas.shtml



National Guard's big New Year's Eve bash:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990107_xex_national_gua.shtml



The National Guard battle plan:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990111_xex_the_national.shtml



Bad news on power grid:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990111_xex_bad_news_pow.shtml

Came across the following post on SI. Here is an excerpt from below post.

If true it is phenomenal and could explain rise in gold. Could anyone check

the math on the 99.6 billion Euro = to 30% reserves????

http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-7203311

"According to the opening financial statement of the Eurosystem

on 1 January 1999, the most important single item on the asset side

of the Eurosystem's balance sheet was external assets. The net

position in foreign currency... amounted to EUR 227.4

billion,whereby assets of EUR 237.0 billion were opposed to

liabilities of EUR 9.6 billion. These figures refer to non-euro area

currencies, since euro area currency denominated foreign exchange

positions held on 31 December 1998 were transformed

automatically into domestic positions through the transition to

Stage Three... In addition, the stock of gold ( asset item 1 ) of the

Eurosystem amounted to EUR 99.6 billion."

"The consolidated opening financial statement of the Eurosystem

reflects the initial valuation of the assets and liabilities of the

Eurosystem. According to the harmonised accounting rules for the

Eurosystem, gold, foreign exchange, security holdings and

financial instruments of the Eurosystem will be revalued at market

rates and prices at the end of each quarter."

Though it will take awhile for analysts, commentators, traders and

investors to sort out the full implications of this press release, there are

certain policy statements inferred in the financial statement that literally

jump off the page. Prior to this statement by ECB, few understood that

reserves would be presented as a consolidated balance sheet of all the

respective national central banks. This symbolically signals a uniformity

and centrality in the economic structure and policy making that comes as

a surprise. Prior to the release of this ECB statement, the best work I

had seen done on how reserves, particularly gold reserves were to be

handled, was published by the World Gold Council. In that they

assumed a gold allocation of 784 tons and said that that would be the

15% allocation frequently discussed. Now we find that because of the

consolidation, the ECB has upped the component to over 12,000 tons

and that it comprises 30.45% of a very large overall number. The Wall

Street Journal reported this morning a figure of 15% but this is incorrect,

and they totally missed what appears to be the most important aspect of

the ECB's action, i.e., they have included all national reserves in ECB

reserves including all the gold in Europe. Beyond the numbers, as I infer,

as investors we must also consider the implications of the sheer size of

this reserve and what message Europe is trying to deliver in presenting

their financial position in this way.

We will leave that for further consideration as the euro process moves

ahead. Suffice it to say, that this blows a hole in the theory that Europe

will be divided over gold and that the national central banks can

somehow undermine the gold price. Policy clearly resides with the

central bank and the central bank has been very clear about is opposition

to gold sales despite what those on the short of the market are telling us.

Though I doubt the mainstream press will give up on this idea in the

months and weeks ahead, my view is that is that the ECB announcement

is a very strong opening volley in the upcoming monetary wars and

perhaps yesterday's strong move was the first indication how

Euro-policies could affect the gold market. To put the matter in terms of

physics, the Europeans have converted the weak force to a strong force

binding those countries. We should not underestimate what that might

mean to our portfolios.

Interesting note on Grand Central...could this have anything to do with the recent action in Royal Silver ( RSMI ) in the past week? RSMI has gone from .03/.04 to .19/.21 in about 5 trading days on heavy volume ( for them ) and no news. In fact, they have laid everyone off as of Dec. 31 and basically gone inert to await a rise in silver.

In Nov. '97, RSMI announced that they would be merging with Grand Central ( then Centurion ) , but I have not heard a word about it since then ( Royal's website is gone as well ) .

Howard Crosby of Royal took over Centurion in December, 1997, and then Centurion did a 1-6 reverse split to become Grand Central. The stock jumped from $1.25 to $2.75 but has been dropping since.

It was announced in 1997 that the holders of RSMI would receive CTMC stock in proportion to their values...I wonder of this might not be providing some impetus to buy RSMI recently.

RSMI is volatile, but it usually doesn't quintuple in price on no news. Any rumour you have I would appreciate. Since the jump, RSMI has become my single biggest holding, so I'm interested in anything you hear.

Thanks.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of "No Noose is Good News" Electric Chairs. Black hoods sold separately.

I can't find anything on who Flynt outed today. What happened--anything?

Date: Mon Jan 11 1999 13:46
gagnrad ( SSC 5 year graph ) ID#43460:
Hm, I wanted to sell last spring but those charlatans in Warshington DeeCee changed the tax laws so I
missed the opportunity by 3 months. This year remains to be seen.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=SSC&d=5y
----------------
Would strongly recommend your taking a peek at a chart of say
25 years, and look at the patterns made in the '70s, and compare
to now.
Not my place to offer advice, but the next 2 years should be
intersting for this and other PMs.

At some point the rah rah crowd is going to fall silent as their team falls way behind and it is evident that they will lose the game. gold is the key for the euro and the key for dollar survival. its the key for building a new asian block currency as well. first the dollar and the US stock market gets punished and then europe gains the upper hand then the US fights back with a gold buck and the playing field is leveled.

all this pressure on gold is not for nothing. its the biggest thing this century. period. buy as much as you can...bargains don't last forever.

over and out.

I haven't posted for a while, but I've been doing a lot of lurking.
I'm on the net every night scooping up lots of investment "stuff".
Now I see that Yahoo ( YHOO ) closed at 414 1/2, up 70 7/8 for the
day. If this isn't close to a blow-off top I don't know what is.
Yahoo has no dividends or profits; it's similar to many other
Internet stocks. When the fall comes, and it could be soon, it will
be just terrible. The "little" guy is the one who will have the
worst loss; that is, he will lose the biggest part of his nestegg.
Any comments? Email to mybear@flash.net.

the yen. There is the expectation that Japan will intervene in the currency markets. Currently, the Dollar is up 2.60 against the Yen to 111.34. This is causing the POG to decline. Feb Gold is @ 292.30 in the
after-hours market ( access ) . Here's the news story from Bloomberg...
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topww1.html

but plenty of political grease...tomorrow the word is skulk...

http://y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=663&feature=&type=

"The glitch will affect the operation of 48 of the company's 50 kinds of computer-based refining facilities and equipment, said the official. Once affected, the refining units will be out of control...with 46 percent of China's total crude refining capacity, the oil exploration and production company is one of 18 state-owned enterprises recently told by China's State Council to immediately address the millennium bug."

a reverse of 1/10. All talk with RMSI just went away and I was left with the feeling RMSI did not like the players involved. Tomorrow I will check sources for RMSI info and post, if any news.

You asked: Is this true, 30% gold reserves for Euro???

This is a great website put up by a 17 year old conspiracy freak. Lots of info on lots of things. Maybe even the secret conspiracies related to golf? http://www.blackvault.com/

Been hearing lots of stuff about the ECBs 12000 tonnes of gold reserves.
The problem is, they won't come out and say DIRECTLY what their gold policy is.

Consequently, gold bears like Andy Smith are constrantly going to say 'but we think there will be sales out of Europe' etc etc etc.

As long as the uncertainty continues, gold wil languish.

Live Long and Prosper.

Dips, if a bull market, makes small difference, ultimately.
Silver's next stop $8.00 - $10.00, buy now. Tommorow's dips are imagination, unless happen. Same with S&P, in reverse. A humongous sell now.

Hi
This is my second post to this group although I have followed the discussion for several years. ( It has taken me this long to work out why I couldn't post.... )
I note that many of you have expertise on the Euro and its gold backing.
I would like to ask: Is there going to be a goldeuro coin?
Simon

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9901/12/business/index.html

Tuesday, January 12, 1999

Hard landing inevitable if the limb breaks

Tigger gets to grips with gravity.

London: According to the children's
writer A.A. Milne, the world is divided
into two types: Tiggers and Eeyores.

Tiggers bounce around, always looking
on the bright side of life; Eeyores are
gloomy and downcast, eternal
pessimists.

It was the year of the Eeyores in 1998.
As the shock waves from South-East
Asia rippled through the global
economy, the talk was of meltdown
and depression, of a return to the
1930s.

The first few days of 1999 have seen the Tiggers bounce back. Wall Street has
powered to a new record on the back of strong employment data, shares in
London have been going through the roof, the euro has slid effortlessly down
the slipway and is steaming along nicely. The crisis is over; everything in the
100-Acre Wood is fine, just fine.

Only Jeremiahs would point out that America seems to be witnessing its own
version of the Albanian pyramid-selling scam with unwitting ( yet greedy )
punters piling into worthless bubble stocks.

Only Eeyores would note that it was not getting down the slipway that caused
problems for the Titanic but the dirty great iceberg in the middle of the North
Atlantic.

But the Eeyores have a case. They say that the world economy is seriously out
of kilter, suffering from a glut of production and a dearth of controls on
international capital, and balanced precariously on a bloated American
stockmarket. Seen from this perspective, the fact that the Dow Jones continues
to defy gravity changes nothing. It makes the Eeyores even more convinced
that they are right.

The first few days of 1999 have seen Japan's economic problems deepen, the
threat of a debt default by one of Brazil's biggest States, and a rise in German
unemployment. Latin America as a whole looks precarious, with Chile,
Venezuela and Mexico all hit hard by the collapse in global commodity prices
and Brazil fighting a rearguard action to defend an overvalued exchange rate.

Industrial production and consumer spending are already collapsing across the
continent in the face of higher interest rates.

Policy-makers are aware of the risks. The Bank of England's statement
explaining last week's quarter-point rate cut was distinctly Eeyore-ish - talking
about continued weakness in the global economy - while Oskar Lafontaine
was making anxious noises about the prospects for European growth.

Clearly, many people feel that the crisis of the past 18 months has not yet
played itself out and that urgent reforms are required.

These voices are not being heeded. Attempts to convene an emergency
meeting of the IMF this month to speed up reforms of the global financial
system have been scotched by the Americans, who believe such a gathering
would merely unsettle the markets.

America is the home of the Tigger community. Wall Street is awash with
Tiggers, telling ordinary Americans that fears of a 1929-style crash are
unfounded and that investing money in companies which have never made a
cent in profit is a sound move. The US Government has the same mindset and
is using its influence to block reforms.

The US economy has many strengths. It is dominant in the three growth
industries of the 21st century - biotechnology, information technology and
multimedia - and over the medium term will prosper.

The same could have been said in 1929. The US economy was spearheading
the industries that drove the post-war consumer boom, yet still suffered a 30
per cent decline in output between 1929 and 1933.

Does this mean that we can pencil a date in for a second Wall Street crash?
Almost certainly not. For a start, there may not be a 1929-style crash and even
if there is, no-one has the first idea when it will be.

Nor should anybody fool themselves that a rerun of the Great Depression
would be the trigger for the final collapse of capitalism. Such a collapse would
be a disaster for the poorest and most vulnerable people in the global
economy. Besides, based on the record of the past two centuries, the
continuation of some form of market-based system looks more likely than
revolution followed by centralised State planning.

That said, the chances of a new and more serious bout of turbulence - this time
affecting America and western Europe - are considerable.

Graham Turner, economist with Tokai Bank, one of the City's leading Eeyores,
says: "The world economy faces a tumultuous year in 1999 which threatens to
eclipse any of the difficulties experienced during the past 12 months. The
fundamental imbalance between consuming power and excessive supply which
has led to sustained downward pressure on prices and, in turn, on profits has
shown few signs of abating during the final months of 1998."

Turner believes that the Japanese economy could contract by 5 per cent this
year - a great deal for a country which accounts for some 17 per cent of global
GDP.

"Continental Europe's failure to address its supply-side deficiencies has left it
hopelessly exposed to the ravages of falling prices, which threaten to push
unemployment up to politically difficult levels over the next two years."

Ian Harwood, of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, says beneath the glossy surface
of the US economy a profits recession is gathering pace. Profits have been
falling for 18 months and corporate tax revenues are no higher now than four
years ago.

The reality of the world economy in the last year of the millennium is of falling
prices and imminent deflation. There is a dangerous argument being peddled
which suggests that low inflation is a guarantor against a recession. It isn't.
Indeed, recessions that take place during periods of deflation tend to turn into
slumps, as in the 1930s.

Deflationary forces are gathering strength. Oil prices have collapsed since the
Russians expanded production last year to boost revenues. The American
computer chip group Micron plans massive expansion in production of
large-capacity chips this year, which has forced the South Koreans to follow
suit. The ability of consumers to mop up this glut of goods is limited by the
strength of international capital, which has ensured that the corporate sector's
share of GDP has been rising at the expense of individuals. The power of
international finance, reflected in the creation of huge banking groups, has
increased, is increasing, and needs to be diminished.

Winnie the Pooh is said to be more popular in the US than Mickey Mouse.
Americans should recall what happened to Tigger. He climbed a tree with Roo
on his back and then found he was stuck.

"Getting Tigger down," said Eeyore, "and not hurting anybody. Keep those two
ideas in your head, Piglet, and you'll be all right."

Sound advice. But in the end, Tigger fell out of the tree.

- The Guardian

I'm not sure if the merger is still on. The following is from the Hoover capsule on Grand Central:

"Grand Central Silver Mines, formerly Centurion Mines, buys land ( or the mineral rights to land ) that is likely to have deposits of copper, silver, gold, and other minerals. Grand Central is in the process of acquiring Royal Silver Mines as part of its new focus on silver. Operations will include developing silver mines in it the mining districts of Tintic ( Utah ) and Coeur d' Alene ( Idaho ) . Grand Central also mines copper through its OK Open Pit Copper Mine in Utah. The firm has focused on land acquisition, but looks to copper and silver mines for cash flow."

http://www.hoovers.com/capsules/45327.html

The president of Grand Central is listed as John Ryan. Rather than the Clancy character, he is the former Veep of Corporate Development at RSMI.

Royal is listed by Pennaluna and Company ( http://www.pennaluna.com ) as one of the few juniors who could be in production quickly ( yeah, right...once they pump all the water out of the Crescent...a year and $3 million dollars...they currently have about $3000 in cash ) , which fits in with what Hoover's says here.

There's no telling how old the Hoover info is, but I'll keep digging. This one gets wierder by the day.

Thanks a bunch.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Smello brand gelatin. Now in limburger cheese flavor.

With recent strength in the gold sector, xau, etc., can anyone enlight-en me as t`o what the problem may be with drooy. Thanks.

Here's some pretty pictures. Lot's of colors and pretty geometry.

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/zgold.gif

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/zgold2.gif

http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/zenergy.gif

Seems like the U.S. $ looks OK re: gold backing ( at current gold prices )
compared with others.
Yeah, U.S.A.

Seems like the U.S. $ looks OK re: gold backing ( at current gold prices )
compared with others.
Yeah, U.S.A.

that which defies the funnymentals.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha13.gif

they said the price could do naught but wither...

now the truth be known....a REALISTIC look, confirms
that whch will not be re-posted.....someone hit the
nail on the head....and the options await......yar!

MSFT
Cooking the books, the thing to do these days - LIE, LIE, LIE......just like the Prez. It's ok, it works, the idiots will believe anything.
http://www.seattleweekly.com/features/romano0107/index.html

Besides the US Government how many Corporations are cooking the books.

HighRise

tolerant1
Thanks, old bean, the package of goodies from Monex arrived on these sunny shores this very day. There is plenty to mull over, eh Sculley?
Hmmmmmm.....

On a lighter note. Also got a letter from my new ISP provider for my company addressed to "TIA."
C/- Aurator's fantastic software Co.
Where I live
NZ

I finally realised that the ISP had lifted my "TIA" from my last email to them, thinking that was my name. Laughed like a drain.

TIA

Spock - Don't sweat it. The ECB's have been holding gold in their vaults for a couple hundred years at least. That is not the reason it 'languish's'. When the boiler explodes all the words in the world will not stop the pot from bubbling over.
May The FORCE Be With You.

Here's another internet hot potato.
"Shares issued- 13.5 million
Float 3.5 million
Business-Internet Search Engine/Web Services for business
http://www.welcometosearch.com
WKWG closed at $4.187 trading 2,131,300 shares, up 48% on the day.
There were 1,100 trades.
Last week WKWG closed their acquisition of WelcomeTo Search Engine Inc.
The company is developing a search engine to allow web users to narrow
their search rapidly.
They plan to implement the new engine in the 1'st quarter of 1999."
First of all who writes this stuff - Float 3.5 mill and 2.1 mill. trades in one day - yeah. Next - Can you dig it guys and dolls - the stock is an OTC, has not even implemented their system yet, and already the stock jumps 48% in ONE DAY and apparently already has a market valuation of 56.5 million dollars. Of course this could be 560 Million by the end of the month. Ho Hum. Hmmmmmmmm. Ommmmmmmmmmmm. Zzzzzzzzzzz

what I've read ( actually from several posts on this forum ) it is to be
introduced and used sometime in the future....
Hopefully, someone else will post better info. There was even a link
posted once that shows a picture of what it'll look like. ( if I remember
right )

Hate to admit ownership of this kind of trash, but it represents the essence of BOWWOW in my portfolio. Yes, they're into land acqisition alright...and also into reverse-splitting their common into oblivion ( the last I think was 1:10 ) . I'm still unsure of the general game plan here, but I look forward to visiting these folks next time I'm out west.

gold.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha21.gif

went to the pasadena gun show in s. houston sunday looking
for gold, silver, and guns......in that order...

talked to a trader of all 3 who said something that blew
my mind......he was commenting about his inability to acquire
the type of coins he was used to having when i mentioned the
futures market.....he immediately told me there was not
any-where near the stocks needed to honor the contracts.....
and that paper gold would default.....this from an individual
who does not trade futures...just coins....1 for 5 on junk silver
LOTS of folks buying LOTS of guns and bullets...

chaos and flux.....they's amux us all.....

!;....c.dotssmfatimmybnb.

Thanks for confirmation. Found it difficult to believe. Even more difficult to believe is Ho Hum, But if reaction to the news. A year ago goldbugs were turning handsprings over the news that Euro might have 30% reserves.....now that its here, oh well.
A bear market reaction to good news. My only worry in the wall of worry for bullish gold is AG's big guns, which he may start firing soon. However, his is no longer the only artillery in the conflict.

Well, I've got good news and I;ve got bad news.

The good news is that we are in the market blowoff phase of the internet bubble tulip mania. Prices rush up with complete disregard of fundamentals as portfolio managers commit every last dollar to stay with the pack.

Then comes the moment when no dry powder is left. With all buyers committed nothing is left to support the market.

No foreign flight capital this time. It's tryimg to get back home. The BOJ will support the do;;ar for a bit, but in the end it will be to no avail.

The bad news, is that when the equity lords start to sell they go into panic frenzy mode and they sell everything in sight. Internet stocks, gold stocks, oil stocks, bonds, everything.

We saw it in the autumn drop from thr July highs when the first wall hit. Now we will see it again.

There still a buck or two to be made, but this is a game for steely eyed gunslingers.

I have been quessing that we might make it into March before the crash, but my timing isn't all that great at times and in fact we could see the beginning of the end at any time now.

It won't be pretty.

Goldman, Sachs & Co. said it encountered four minor glitches, including a commodities accounting program that would not allow it to schedule a metals payment in the Year 2000. It turned out that all four defects had been identified by Goldman's code scanners and would have been scheduled to be eliminated anyway by program fixes set for this spring. "I feel good about that, but it doesn't mean we are going to cut back on our contingency planning or other Year 2000 work," said Leslie Tortora,
the firm's chief technology officer.

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/doc/1047/1:COMP12/1:COMP12011099.html

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:00
cherokee__A ( @------another-way----to-play----- ) ID#344308:
gold's day is close......i can feel it......if another is correct,
the key will be knowing when to sell the paper gold.....timing
and greed.........we should feel the power of the golden hammer's
might in the next 2 weeks......imnsho.........

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 22:59
MJPL ( Inflation or deflation? ) ID#153111:
I keep hearing about deflation just around the corner and so the Fed is now taking steps to prevent this. I for one don't believe that deflation is the future, place me in the inflationary camp.

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 21:05
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com>bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
The s**t just hit the fan. Hong Kong opens down nearly 1000
points. Wanna know the next crisis point - - Hong Kong!
The crash has begun!!!!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 16:13
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:
Let the "margin calls" begin on the full- moon tomorrow!
The next question for speculators: Sell, to whom?
The great stock market crash of 1998 is set to begin!

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 13:30
cherokee__A ( @------- ) ID#344308:
i see this support coming in the spring and summer.......i fully expect
a major drought and heat wave to destroy a large portion of the
grains.....PLUS...the farmer's almanac is calling for a MAJOR DROUGHT
in '98 also.......hey, they are 80+% correct, and the gov't uses them for long range fore- casts........long- term- - - - the grains will make another huge run- up before '98 is over........i'll be there....again...

Date: Sun Jan 11 1998 12:49
cherokee__A ( @-----what-to-do----what-to-do.......... ) ID#344308:
WHO SAID THAT? WHO??? the dumb @sses with their heads in the sand
that have ridden the s& p for the last 7 years.......yes....they are
the resident experts.......with their ferrari's and infinity's....
there will be no bonuses on wall street this year......their sports
cars will have 'for sale' signs after the repo man comes- a- callin....

BTW, how's them ole Texas Tea Dec '99 calls doin'? Lookin' good so far!
I'm a keepin' my fingers crossed ( and arms and legs and toes ) for them
really big UP moves in our favorite commodities!!

an Honor and a privilege...

You figurin' that the internet high flyers will serve as a trigger for a general reversal??

HONG KONG ( AP ) -- Central bankers from around the globe found no immediate solution Monday to a question that has troubled Asians for nearly two years: How to control currency speculators. There was no dispute among the central bankers about the need for more disclosure from secretive investment companies known as hedge funds, said Andrew Crockett, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements. The Swiss-based organization, which acts as a clearing house for the world's central banks, organized the meeting of the 17 monetary chiefs at its Hong Kong office. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan attended the meeting as part of his tour through Asia. Keeping a good eye on the hedge funds would not be easy, Crockett warned, because they find ways to operate outside the scope of regulators in various countries. But the talks led to a "clearer understanding of the role of hedge funds, the degree of responsibility that they had for the volatility that happened over the last year or two," Crockett told reporters. The activities of hedge funds, which cater mainly to very wealthy investors, have come under increasing scrutiny following the near-collapse last year of one of the funds, Long-Term Capital Management, which engaged in high-risk investment strategies and kept its activities secret even to its top clients.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn17.htm

What did he say?

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Japan should battle rising unemployment by subsidizing small businesses, deregulating the temporary worker market and bolstering training programs for the jobless, the labor minister said Monday. The moves, part of a government program to create 1 million jobs, are needed to calm consumer fears about the future and give corporations the flexibility to compete internationally, Akira Amari told reporters. "The employment situation in Japan is at a turning point," Amari said. Japan is increasingly alarmed at its jobless rate, which in November hit 4.4 percent, the highest since the government started tracking it in 1953. Last week the U.S. rate hit 4.3 percent, the first time it has been lower than the Japanese rate. Amari said the Japanese unemployment rate would be even higher if the legions of excess workers still at companies under the traditional lifetime employment system were taken into account, though he would not say how much higher. He expected economic problems to push companies to start laying off more of those workers in the future.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1a.htm

http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/index.sml

Still reaching down, trying to get to those new lows.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=t

Entire world was red today

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Yesterday:
ad news for Brazil... In other news, Brazil, that teeny tiny, itty-bitty little country in South America whose bailout, according to all the authorities, was critical to Western Civilization as we know it, was down about 6 percent today.
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

Today:
Second Brazilian state says it can't pay debt .
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1008.htm

Looks like they are loosing control of the situation again.

HighRise